WorldWideScience

Sample records for dynamic models incorporating

  1. A stochastic MILP energy planning model incorporating power market dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koltsaklis, Nikolaos E.; Nazos, Konstantinos

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: •Stochastic MILP model for the optimal energy planning of a power system. •Power market dynamics (offers/bids) are incorporated in the proposed model. •Monte Carlo method for capturing the uncertainty of some key parameters. •Analytical supply cost composition per power producer and activity. •Clean dark and spark spreads are calculated for each power unit. -- Abstract: This paper presents an optimization-based methodological approach to address the problem of the optimal planning of a power system at an annual level in competitive and uncertain power markets. More specifically, a stochastic mixed integer linear programming model (MILP) has been developed, combining advanced optimization techniques with Monte Carlo method in order to deal with uncertainty issues. The main focus of the proposed framework is the dynamic formulation of the strategy followed by all market participants in volatile market conditions, as well as detailed economic assessment of the power system’s operation. The applicability of the proposed approach has been tested on a real case study of the interconnected Greek power system, quantifying in detail all the relevant technical and economic aspects of the system’s operation. The proposed work identifies in the form of probability distributions the optimal power generation mix, electricity trade at a regional level, carbon footprint, as well as detailed total supply cost composition, according to the assumed market structure. The paper demonstrates that the proposed optimization approach is able to provide important insights into the appropriate energy strategies designed by market participants, as well as on the strategic long-term decisions to be made by investors and/or policy makers at a national and/or regional level, underscoring potential risks and providing appropriate price signals on critical energy projects under real market operating conditions.

  2. Incorporating Social System Dynamics into the Food-Energy-Water System Resilience-Sustainability Modeling Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Givens, J.; Padowski, J.; Malek, K.; Guzman, C.; Boll, J.; Adam, J. C.; Witinok-Huber, R.

    2017-12-01

    In the face of climate change and multi-scalar governance objectives, achieving resilience of food-energy-water (FEW) systems requires interdisciplinary approaches. Through coordinated modeling and management efforts, we study "Innovations in the Food-Energy-Water Nexus (INFEWS)" through a case-study in the Columbia River Basin. Previous research on FEW system management and resilience includes some attention to social dynamics (e.g., economic, governance); however, more research is needed to better address social science perspectives. Decisions ultimately taken in this river basin would occur among stakeholders encompassing various institutional power structures including multiple U.S. states, tribal lands, and sovereign nations. The social science lens draws attention to the incompatibility between the engineering definition of resilience (i.e., return to equilibrium or a singular stable state) and the ecological and social system realities, more explicit in the ecological interpretation of resilience (i.e., the ability of a system to move into a different, possibly more resilient state). Social science perspectives include but are not limited to differing views on resilience as normative, system persistence versus transformation, and system boundary issues. To expand understanding of resilience and objectives for complex and dynamic systems, concepts related to inequality, heterogeneity, power, agency, trust, values, culture, history, conflict, and system feedbacks must be more tightly integrated into FEW research. We identify gaps in knowledge and data, and the value and complexity of incorporating social components and processes into systems models. We posit that socio-biophysical system resilience modeling would address important complex, dynamic social relationships, including non-linear dynamics of social interactions, to offer an improved understanding of sustainable management in FEW systems. Conceptual modeling that is presented in our study, represents

  3. Global dynamics of a PDE model for aedes aegypti mosquitoe incorporating female sexual preference

    KAUST Repository

    Parshad, Rana

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we study the long time dynamics of a reaction diffusion system, describing the spread of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, which are the primary cause of dengue infection. The system incorporates a control attempt via the sterile insect technique. The model incorporates female mosquitoes sexual preference for wild males over sterile males. We show global existence of strong solution for the system. We then derive uniform estimates to prove the existence of a global attractor in L-2(Omega), for the system. The attractor is shown to be L-infinity(Omega) regular and posess state of extinction, if the injection of sterile males is large enough. We also provide upper bounds on the Hausdorff and fractal dimensions of the attractor.

  4. Global dynamics of a PDE model for aedes aegypti mosquitoe incorporating female sexual preference

    KAUST Repository

    Parshad, Rana; Agusto, Folashade B.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we study the long time dynamics of a reaction diffusion system, describing the spread of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, which are the primary cause of dengue infection. The system incorporates a control attempt via the sterile insect

  5. Incorporating microbial dormancy dynamics into soil decomposition models to improve quantification of soil carbon dynamics of northern temperate forests

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    He, Yujie [Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States). Dept. of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences; Yang, Jinyan [Univ. of Georgia, Athens, GA (United States). Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources; Northeast Forestry Univ., Harbin (China). Center for Ecological Research; Zhuang, Qianlai [Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States). Dept. of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences; Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States). Dept. of Agronomy; Harden, Jennifer W. [U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA (United States); McGuire, Anthony D. [Alaska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, U.S. Geological Survey, Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States). U.S. Geological Survey, Alaska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit; Liu, Yaling [Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States). Dept. of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences; Wang, Gangsheng [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Climate Change Science Inst. and Environmental Sciences Division; Gu, Lianhong [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Environmental Sciences Division

    2015-11-20

    Soil carbon dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems play a significant role in the global carbon cycle. Microbial-based decomposition models have seen much growth recently for quantifying this role, yet dormancy as a common strategy used by microorganisms has not usually been represented and tested in these models against field observations. Here in this study we developed an explicit microbial-enzyme decomposition model and examined model performance with and without representation of microbial dormancy at six temperate forest sites of different forest types. We then extrapolated the model to global temperate forest ecosystems to investigate biogeochemical controls on soil heterotrophic respiration and microbial dormancy dynamics at different temporal-spatial scales. The dormancy model consistently produced better match with field-observed heterotrophic soil CO2 efflux (RH) than the no dormancy model. Our regional modeling results further indicated that models with dormancy were able to produce more realistic magnitude of microbial biomass (<2% of soil organic carbon) and soil RH (7.5 ± 2.4 PgCyr-1). Spatial correlation analysis showed that soil organic carbon content was the dominating factor (correlation coefficient = 0.4-0.6) in the simulated spatial pattern of soil RH with both models. In contrast to strong temporal and local controls of soil temperature and moisture on microbial dormancy, our modeling results showed that soil carbon-to-nitrogen ratio (C:N) was a major regulating factor at regional scales (correlation coefficient = -0.43 to -0.58), indicating scale-dependent biogeochemical controls on microbial dynamics. Our findings suggest that incorporating microbial dormancy could improve the realism of microbial-based decomposition models and enhance the integration of soil experiments and mechanistically based modeling.

  6. Incorporating microbial dormancy dynamics into soil decomposition models to improve quantification of soil carbon dynamics of northern temperate forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Yujie; Yang, Jinyan; Zhuang, Qianlai; Harden, Jennifer W.; McGuire, A. David; Liu, Yaling; Wang, Gangsheng; Gu, Lianhong

    2015-01-01

    Soil carbon dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems play a significant role in the global carbon cycle. Microbial-based decomposition models have seen much growth recently for quantifying this role, yet dormancy as a common strategy used by microorganisms has not usually been represented and tested in these models against field observations. Here we developed an explicit microbial-enzyme decomposition model and examined model performance with and without representation of microbial dormancy at six temperate forest sites of different forest types. We then extrapolated the model to global temperate forest ecosystems to investigate biogeochemical controls on soil heterotrophic respiration and microbial dormancy dynamics at different temporal-spatial scales. The dormancy model consistently produced better match with field-observed heterotrophic soil CO2 efflux (RH) than the no dormancy model. Our regional modeling results further indicated that models with dormancy were able to produce more realistic magnitude of microbial biomass (analysis showed that soil organic carbon content was the dominating factor (correlation coefficient = 0.4–0.6) in the simulated spatial pattern of soil RHwith both models. In contrast to strong temporal and local controls of soil temperature and moisture on microbial dormancy, our modeling results showed that soil carbon-to-nitrogen ratio (C:N) was a major regulating factor at regional scales (correlation coefficient = −0.43 to −0.58), indicating scale-dependent biogeochemical controls on microbial dynamics. Our findings suggest that incorporating microbial dormancy could improve the realism of microbial-based decomposition models and enhance the integration of soil experiments and mechanistically based modeling.

  7. Incorporation of a Wind Generator Model into a Dynamic Power Flow Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angeles-Camacho C.

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Wind energy is nowadays one of the most cost-effective and practical options for electric generation from renewable resources. However, increased penetration of wind generation causes the power networks to be more depend on, and vulnerable to, the varying wind speed. Modeling is a tool which can provide valuable information about the interaction between wind farms and the power network to which they are connected. This paper develops a realistic characterization of a wind generator. The wind generator model is incorporated into an algorithm to investigate its contribution to the stability of the power network in the time domain. The tool obtained is termed dynamic power flow. The wind generator model takes on account the wind speed and the reactive power consumption by induction generators. Dynamic power flow analysis is carried-out using real wind data at 10-minute time intervals collected for one meteorological station. The generation injected at one point into the network provides active power locally and is found to reduce global power losses. However, the power supplied is time-varying and causes fluctuations in voltage magnitude and power fl ows in transmission lines.

  8. Incorporating human-water dynamics in a hyper-resolution land surface model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vergopolan, N.; Chaney, N.; Wanders, N.; Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.

    2017-12-01

    The increasing demand for water, energy, and food is leading to unsustainable groundwater and surface water exploitation. As a result, the human interactions with the environment, through alteration of land and water resources dynamics, need to be reflected in hydrologic and land surface models (LSMs). Advancements in representing human-water dynamics still leave challenges related to the lack of water use data, water allocation algorithms, and modeling scales. This leads to an over-simplistic representation of human water use in large-scale models; this is in turn leads to an inability to capture extreme events signatures and to provide reliable information at stakeholder-level spatial scales. The emergence of hyper-resolution models allows one to address these challenges by simulating the hydrological processes and interactions with the human impacts at field scales. We integrated human-water dynamics into HydroBlocks - a hyper-resolution, field-scale resolving LSM. HydroBlocks explicitly solves the field-scale spatial heterogeneity of land surface processes through interacting hydrologic response units (HRUs); and its HRU-based model parallelization allows computationally efficient long-term simulations as well as ensemble predictions. The implemented human-water dynamics include groundwater and surface water abstraction to meet agricultural, domestic and industrial water demands. Furthermore, a supply-demand water allocation scheme based on relative costs helps to determine sectoral water use requirements and tradeoffs. A set of HydroBlocks simulations over the Midwest United States (daily, at 30-m spatial resolution for 30 years) are used to quantify the irrigation impacts on water availability. The model captures large reductions in total soil moisture and water table levels, as well as spatiotemporal changes in evapotranspiration and runoff peaks, with their intensity related to the adopted water management strategy. By incorporating human-water dynamics in

  9. Incorporating a Wheeled Vehicle Model in a New Monocular Visual Odometry Algorithm for Dynamic Outdoor Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Yanhua; Xiong, Guangming; Chen, Huiyan; Lee, Dah-Jye

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a monocular visual odometry algorithm that incorporates a wheeled vehicle model for ground vehicles. The main innovation of this algorithm is to use the single-track bicycle model to interpret the relationship between the yaw rate and side slip angle, which are the two most important parameters that describe the motion of a wheeled vehicle. Additionally, the pitch angle is also considered since the planar-motion hypothesis often fails due to the dynamic characteristics of wheel suspensions and tires in real-world environments. Linearization is used to calculate a closed-form solution of the motion parameters that works as a hypothesis generator in a RAndom SAmple Consensus (RANSAC) scheme to reduce the complexity in solving equations involving trigonometric. All inliers found are used to refine the winner solution through minimizing the reprojection error. Finally, the algorithm is applied to real-time on-board visual localization applications. Its performance is evaluated by comparing against the state-of-the-art monocular visual odometry methods using both synthetic data and publicly available datasets over several kilometers in dynamic outdoor environments. PMID:25256109

  10. Incorporating a Wheeled Vehicle Model in a New Monocular Visual Odometry Algorithm for Dynamic Outdoor Environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanhua Jiang

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a monocular visual odometry algorithm that incorporates a wheeled vehicle model for ground vehicles. The main innovation of this algorithm is to use the single-track bicycle model to interpret the relationship between the yaw rate and side slip angle, which are the two most important parameters that describe the motion of a wheeled vehicle. Additionally, the pitch angle is also considered since the planar-motion hypothesis often fails due to the dynamic characteristics of wheel suspensions and tires in real-world environments. Linearization is used to calculate a closed-form solution of the motion parameters that works as a hypothesis generator in a RAndom SAmple Consensus (RANSAC scheme to reduce the complexity in solving equations involving trigonometric. All inliers found are used to refine the winner solution through minimizing the reprojection error. Finally, the algorithm is applied to real-time on-board visual localization applications. Its performance is evaluated by comparing against the state-of-the-art monocular visual odometry methods using both synthetic data and publicly available datasets over several kilometers in dynamic outdoor environments.

  11. Incorporating teleconnection information into reservoir operating policies using Stochastic Dynamic Programming and a Hidden Markov Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Sean; Galelli, Stefano; Wilcox, Karen

    2015-04-01

    Water reservoir systems are often affected by recurring large-scale ocean-atmospheric anomalies, known as teleconnections, that cause prolonged periods of climatological drought. Accurate forecasts of these events -- at lead times in the order of weeks and months -- may enable reservoir operators to take more effective release decisions to improve the performance of their systems. In practice this might mean a more reliable water supply system, a more profitable hydropower plant or a more sustainable environmental release policy. To this end, climate indices, which represent the oscillation of the ocean-atmospheric system, might be gainfully employed within reservoir operating models that adapt the reservoir operation as a function of the climate condition. This study develops a Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) approach that can incorporate climate indices using a Hidden Markov Model. The model simulates the climatic regime as a hidden state following a Markov chain, with the state transitions driven by variation in climatic indices, such as the Southern Oscillation Index. Time series analysis of recorded streamflow data reveals the parameters of separate autoregressive models that describe the inflow to the reservoir under three representative climate states ("normal", "wet", "dry"). These models then define inflow transition probabilities for use in a classic SDP approach. The key advantage of the Hidden Markov Model is that it allows conditioning the operating policy not only on the reservoir storage and the antecedent inflow, but also on the climate condition, thus potentially allowing adaptability to a broader range of climate conditions. In practice, the reservoir operator would effect a water release tailored to a specific climate state based on available teleconnection data and forecasts. The approach is demonstrated on the operation of a realistic, stylised water reservoir with carry-over capacity in South-East Australia. Here teleconnections relating

  12. Spinal motor control system incorporates an internal model of limb dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimansky, Y P

    2000-10-01

    The existence and utilization of an internal representation of the controlled object is one of the most important features of the functioning of neural motor control systems. This study demonstrates that this property already exists at the level of the spinal motor control system (SMCS), which is capable of generating motor patterns for reflex rhythmic movements, such as locomotion and scratching, without the aid of the peripheral afferent feedback, but substantially modifies the generated activity in response to peripheral afferent stimuli. The SMCS is presented as an optimal control system whose optimality requires that it incorporate an internal model (IM) of the controlled object's dynamics. A novel functional mechanism for the integration of peripheral sensory signals with the corresponding predictive output from the IM, the summation of information precision (SIP) is proposed. In contrast to other models in which the correction of the internal representation of the controlled object's state is based on the calculation of a mismatch between the internal and external information sources, the SIP mechanism merges the information from these sources in order to optimize the precision of the controlled object's state estimate. It is demonstrated, based on scratching in decerebrate cats as an example of the spinal control of goal-directed movements, that the results of computer modeling agree with the experimental observations related to the SMCS's reactions to phasic and tonic peripheral afferent stimuli. It is also shown that the functional requirements imposed by the mathematical model of the SMCS comply with the current knowledge about the related properties of spinal neuronal circuitry. The crucial role of the spinal presynaptic inhibition mechanism in the neuronal implementation of SIP is elucidated. Important differences between the IM and a state predictor employed for compensating for a neural reflex time delay are discussed.

  13. Incorporating H2 Dynamics and Inhibition into a Microbially Based Methanogenesis Model for Restored Wetland Sediments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pal, David; Jaffe, Peter

    2015-04-01

    Estimates of global CH4 emissions from wetlands indicate that wetlands are the largest natural source of CH4 to the atmosphere. In this paper, we propose that there is a missing component to these models that should be addressed. CH4 is produced in wetland sediments from the microbial degradation of organic carbon through multiple fermentation steps and methanogenesis pathways. There are multiple sources of carbon for methananogenesis; in vegetated wetland sediments, microbial communities consume root exudates as a major source of organic carbon. In many methane models propionate is used as a model carbon molecule. This simple sugar is fermented into acetate and H2, acetate is transformed to methane and CO2, while the H2 and CO2 are used to form an additional CH4 molecule. The hydrogenotrophic pathway involves the equilibrium of two dissolved gases, CH4 and H2. In an effort to limit CH4 emissions from wetlands, there has been growing interest in finding ways to limit plant transport of soil gases through root systems. Changing planted species, or genetically modifying new species of plants may control this transport of soil gases. While this may decrease the direct emissions of methane, there is little understanding about how H2 dynamics may feedback into overall methane production. The results of an incubation study were combined with a new model of propionate degradation for methanogenesis that also examines other natural parameters (i.e. gas transport through plants). This presentation examines how we would expect this model to behave in a natural field setting with changing sulfate and carbon loading schemes. These changes can be controlled through new plant species and other management practices. Next, we compare the behavior of two variations of this model, with or without the incorporation of H2 interactions, with changing sulfate, carbon loading and root volatilization. Results show that while the models behave similarly there may be a discrepancy of nearly

  14. New systematic methodology for incorporating dynamic heat transfer modelling in multi-phase biochemical reactors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-Arévalo, T; Lizarralde, I; Grau, P; Ayesa, E

    2014-09-01

    This paper presents a new modelling methodology for dynamically predicting the heat produced or consumed in the transformations of any biological reactor using Hess's law. Starting from a complete description of model components stoichiometry and formation enthalpies, the proposed modelling methodology has integrated successfully the simultaneous calculation of both the conventional mass balances and the enthalpy change of reaction in an expandable multi-phase matrix structure, which facilitates a detailed prediction of the main heat fluxes in the biochemical reactors. The methodology has been implemented in a plant-wide modelling methodology in order to facilitate the dynamic description of mass and heat throughout the plant. After validation with literature data, as illustrative examples of the capability of the methodology, two case studies have been described. In the first one, a predenitrification-nitrification dynamic process has been analysed, with the aim of demonstrating the easy integration of the methodology in any system. In the second case study, the simulation of a thermal model for an ATAD has shown the potential of the proposed methodology for analysing the effect of ventilation and influent characterization. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Debris flow analysis with a one dimensional dynamic run-out model that incorporates entrained material

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luna, Byron Quan; Remaître, Alexandre; van Asch, Theo; Malet, Jean-Philippe; van Westen, Cees

    2010-05-01

    Estimating the magnitude and the intensity of rapid landslides like debris flows is fundamental to evaluate quantitatively the hazard in a specific location. Intensity varies through the travelled course of the flow and can be described by physical features such as deposited volume, velocities, height of the flow, impact forces and pressures. Dynamic run-out models are able to characterize the distribution of the material, its intensity and define the zone where the elements will experience an impact. These models can provide valuable inputs for vulnerability and risk calculations. However, most dynamic run-out models assume a constant volume during the motion of the flow, ignoring the important role of material entrained along its path. Consequently, they neglect that the increase of volume enhances the mobility of the flow and can significantly influence the size of the potential impact area. An appropriate erosion mechanism needs to be established in the analyses of debris flows that will improve the results of dynamic modeling and consequently the quantitative evaluation of risk. The objective is to present and test a simple 1D debris flow model with a material entrainment concept based on limit equilibrium considerations and the generation of excess pore water pressure through undrained loading of the in situ bed material. The debris flow propagation model is based on a one dimensional finite difference solution of a depth-averaged form of the Navier-Stokes equations of fluid motions. The flow is treated as a laminar one phase material, which behavior is controlled by a visco-plastic Coulomb-Bingham rheology. The model parameters are evaluated and the model performance is tested on a debris flow event that occurred in 2003 in the Faucon torrent (Southern French Alps).

  16. Incorporating Daily Flood Control Objectives Into a Monthly Stochastic Dynamic Programing Model for a Hydroelectric Complex

    Science.gov (United States)

    Druce, Donald J.

    1990-01-01

    A monthly stochastic dynamic programing model was recently developed and implemented at British Columbia (B.C.) Hydro to provide decision support for short-term energy exports and, if necessary, for flood control on the Peace River in northern British Columbia. The model establishes the marginal cost of supplying energy from the B.C. Hydro system, as well as a monthly operating policy for the G.M. Shrum and Peace Canyon hydroelectric plants and the Williston Lake storage reservoir. A simulation model capable of following the operating policy then determines the probability of refilling Williston Lake and possible spill rates and volumes. Reservoir inflows are input to both models in daily and monthly formats. The results indicate that flood control can be accommodated without sacrificing significant export revenue.

  17. Incorporating daily flood control objectives into a monthly stochastic dynamic programming model for a hydroelectric complex

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Druce, D.J. (British Columbia Hydro and Power Authority, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada))

    1990-01-01

    A monthly stochastic dynamic programing model was recently developed and implemented at British Columbia (B.C.) Hydro to provide decision support for short-term energy exports and, if necessary, for flood control on the Peace River in northern British Columbia. The model established the marginal cost of supplying energy from the B.C. Hydro system, as well as a monthly operating policy for the G.M. Shrum and Peace Canyon hydroelectric plants and the Williston Lake storage reservoir. A simulation model capable of following the operating policy then determines the probability of refilling Williston Lake and possible spill rates and volumes. Reservoir inflows are input to both models in daily and monthly formats. The results indicate that flood control can be accommodated without sacrificing significant export revenue.

  18. Incorporating Vibration Test Results for the Advanced Stirling Convertor into the System Dynamic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meer, David W.; Lewandowski, Edward J.

    2010-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Lockheed Martin Corporation (LM), and NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) have been developing the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) for use as a power system for space science missions. As part of the extended operation testing of this power system, the Advanced Stirling Convertors (ASC) at NASA GRC undergo a vibration test sequence intended to simulate the vibration history that an ASC would experience when used in an ASRG for a space mission. During these tests, a data system collects several performance-related parameters from the convertor under test for health monitoring and analysis. Recently, an additional sensor recorded the slip table position during vibration testing to qualification level. The System Dynamic Model (SDM) integrates Stirling cycle thermodynamics, heat flow, mechanical mass, spring, damper systems, and electrical characteristics of the linear alternator and controller. This Paper presents a comparison of the performance of the ASC when exposed to vibration to that predicted by the SDM when exposed to the same vibration.

  19. Modelling sediment dynamics due to hillslope-river interactions : incorporating fluvial behaviour in landscape evolution model LAPSUS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baartman, Jantiene E. M.; van Gorp, Wouter; Temme, Arnaud J. A. M.; Schoorl, Jeroen M.

    Landscape evolution models (LEMs) simulate the three-dimensional development of landscapes over time. Different LEMs have different foci, e.g. erosional behaviour, river dynamics, the fluvial domain, hillslopes or a combination. LEM LAPSUS is a relatively simple cellular model operating on

  20. A computational model incorporating neural stem cell dynamics reproduces glioma incidence across the lifespan in the human population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roman Bauer

    Full Text Available Glioma is the most common form of primary brain tumor. Demographically, the risk of occurrence increases until old age. Here we present a novel computational model to reproduce the probability of glioma incidence across the lifespan. Previous mathematical models explaining glioma incidence are framed in a rather abstract way, and do not directly relate to empirical findings. To decrease this gap between theory and experimental observations, we incorporate recent data on cellular and molecular factors underlying gliomagenesis. Since evidence implicates the adult neural stem cell as the likely cell-of-origin of glioma, we have incorporated empirically-determined estimates of neural stem cell number, cell division rate, mutation rate and oncogenic potential into our model. We demonstrate that our model yields results which match actual demographic data in the human population. In particular, this model accounts for the observed peak incidence of glioma at approximately 80 years of age, without the need to assert differential susceptibility throughout the population. Overall, our model supports the hypothesis that glioma is caused by randomly-occurring oncogenic mutations within the neural stem cell population. Based on this model, we assess the influence of the (experimentally indicated decrease in the number of neural stem cells and increase of cell division rate during aging. Our model provides multiple testable predictions, and suggests that different temporal sequences of oncogenic mutations can lead to tumorigenesis. Finally, we conclude that four or five oncogenic mutations are sufficient for the formation of glioma.

  1. Incorporating time and income constraints in dynamic agent-based models of activity generation and time use : Approach and illustration

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arentze, Theo; Ettema, D.F.; Timmermans, Harry

    Existing theories and models in economics and transportation treat households’ decisions regarding allocation of time and income to activities as a resource-allocation optimization problem. This stands in contrast with the dynamic nature of day-by-day activity-travel choices. Therefore, in the

  2. Implications of incorporating N cycling and N limitations on primary production in an individual-based dynamic vegetation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, B.; Wårlind, D.; Arneth, A.; Hickler, T.; Leadley, P.; Siltberg, J.; Zaehle, S.

    2014-04-01

    The LPJ-GUESS dynamic vegetation model uniquely combines an individual- and patch-based representation of vegetation dynamics with ecosystem biogeochemical cycling from regional to global scales. We present an updated version that includes plant and soil N dynamics, analysing the implications of accounting for C-N interactions on predictions and performance of the model. Stand structural dynamics and allometric scaling of tree growth suggested by global databases of forest stand structure and development were well reproduced by the model in comparison to an earlier multi-model study. Accounting for N cycle dynamics improved the goodness of fit for broadleaved forests. N limitation associated with low N-mineralisation rates reduces productivity of cold-climate and dry-climate ecosystems relative to mesic temperate and tropical ecosystems. In a model experiment emulating free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) treatment for forests globally, N limitation associated with low N-mineralisation rates of colder soils reduces CO2 enhancement of net primary production (NPP) for boreal forests, while some temperate and tropical forests exhibit increased NPP enhancement. Under a business-as-usual future climate and emissions scenario, ecosystem C storage globally was projected to increase by ca. 10%; additional N requirements to match this increasing ecosystem C were within the high N supply limit estimated on stoichiometric grounds in an earlier study. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for C-N interactions in studies of global terrestrial N cycling, and as a basis for understanding mechanisms on local scales and in different regional contexts.

  3. Seasonal PCB bioaccumulation in an arctic marine ecosystem: a model analysis incorporating lipid dynamics, food-web productivity and migration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laender, Frederik De; Oevelen, Dick Van; Frantzen, Sylvia; Middelburg, Jack J; Soetaert, Karline

    2010-01-01

    Primary production and species' lipid contents in Arctic ecosystems are notoriously seasonal. Additionally, seasonal migration patterns of fish may alter prey availability and thus diet. Taking the southern Barents Sea as a study region and PCBs as model contaminants, we examined to what extent each of these factors cause bioaccumulation in fish to change throughout the year. Data on physiology and standing stocks of multiple trophic levels were used to estimated season-specific carbon budgets and by inference also corresponding values for food ingestion and production of cod, capelin, and herring. When combining these values with Arctic lipid dynamics for bioaccumulation model parameter setting, we predicted bioaccumulation factors (BAFs) that were in good agreement with BAFs for cod and capelin observed between 1998 and 2008. BAFs in all fish were 10 times lower in summer than in spring and fall/winter and were mainly driven by lipid dynamics. Trophic magnification factors (TMFs: increase in BAF per unit increase in trophic level as derived from our carbon budgets) were highest for PCB 153 during spring (2.3-2.4) and lowest for PCB 52 in summer and fall/winter (1.5-1.6) and were driven by seasonal shifts in trophic level and lipid dynamics.

  4. Incorporating Modeling and Simulations in Undergraduate Biophysical Chemistry Course to Promote Understanding of Structure-Dynamics-Function Relationships in Proteins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hati, Sanchita; Bhattacharyya, Sudeep

    2016-01-01

    A project-based biophysical chemistry laboratory course, which is offered to the biochemistry and molecular biology majors in their senior year, is described. In this course, the classroom study of the structure-function of biomolecules is integrated with the discovery-guided laboratory study of these molecules using computer modeling and…

  5. Incorporating free-floating car-sharing into an activity-based dynamic user equilibrium model : a demand-side model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, Q.; Liao, F.; Timmermans, H.J.P.; Huang, H-J; Zhou, J.

    2018-01-01

    Free-floating car-sharing (FFC) has recently received increasing attention due to the flexibility in mobility services. Existing studies related to FFC mainly focus on the analysis of operational management and user preferences. Efforts to model the dynamic choices of free-floating shared cars (SCs)

  6. MO-E-17A-02: Incorporation of Contrast Medium Dynamics in Anthropomorphic Phantoms: The Advent of 5D XCAT Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sahbaee, P [NC State University, Raleigh, NC (United States); Samei, E [Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC (United States); Segars, W [Duke University, Durham, NC (United States)

    2014-06-15

    Purpose: To develop a unique method to incorporate the dynamics of contrast-medium propagation into the anthropomorphic phantom, to generate a five-dimensional (5D) patient model for multimodality imaging studies. Methods: A compartmental model of blood circulation network within the body was embodied into an extended cardiac-torso (4D-XCAT) patient model. To do so, a computational physiologic model of the human cardiovascular system was developed which includes a series of compartments representing heart, vessels, and organs. Patient-specific cardiac output and blood volume were used as inputs influenced by the weight, height, age, and gender of the patient's model. For a given injection protocol and given XCAT model, the contrast-medium transmission within the body was described by a series of mass balance differential equations, the solutions to which provided the contrast enhancement-time curves for each organ; thereby defining the tissue materials including the contrastmedium within the XCAT model. A library of time-dependent organ materials was then defined. Each organ in each voxelized 4D-XCAT phantom was assigned to a corresponding time-varying material to create the 5D-XCAT phantom in which the fifth dimension is blood/contrast-medium within the temporal domain. Results: The model effectively predicts the time-varying concentration behavior of various contrast-medium administration in each organ for different patient models as function of patient size (weight/height) and different injection protocol factors (injection rate and pattern, iodine concentration or volume). The contrast enhanced XCAT patient models was developed based on the concentration of iodine as a function of time after injection. Conclusion: Majority of medical imaging systems take advantage of contrast-medium administration in terms of better image quality, the effect of which was ignored in previous optimization studies. The study enables a comprehensive optimization of contrast

  7. Incorporating Dynamical Systems into the Traditional Curriculum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Natov, Jonathan

    2001-01-01

    Presents a brief overview of dynamical systems. Gives examples from dynamical systems and where they fit into the current curriculum. Points out that these examples are accessible to undergraduate freshmen and sophomore students, add continuity to the standard curriculum, and are worth including in classes. (MM)

  8. Incorporation of a wind generator model into a dynamic power flow analysis; Incorporacion de un modelo de generador eolico al analisis de flujos dinamicos de potencia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Angeles Camacho, C.; Banuelos Ruedas, F. [Instituto de Ingenieria, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico (Mexico)]. E-mail: cangelesc@iingen.unam.mx; fbanuelosr@iingen.unam.mx

    2011-07-15

    Wind energy is nowadays one of the most cost-effective and practical options for electric generation from renewable resources. However, increased penetration of wind generation causes the power networks to be more depend on, and vulnerable to, the varying wind speed. Modeling is a tool which can provide valuable information about the interaction between wind farms and the power network to which they are connected. This paper develops a realistic characterization of a wind generator. The wind generator model is incorporated into an algorithm to investigate its contribution to the stability of the power network in the time domain. The tool obtained is termed dynamic power flow. The wind generator model takes on account the wind speed and the reactive power consumption by induction generators. Dynamic power flow analysis is carried-out using real wind data at 10-minute time intervals collected for one meteorological station. The generation injected at one point into the network provides active power locally and is found to reduce global power losses. However, the power supplied is time-varying and causes fluctuations in voltage magnitude and power flows in transmission lines. [Spanish] La energia eolica es hoy en dia una de las opciones mas efectivas y practicas para la generacion de electricidad a partir de energias renovables. Sin embargo, el incremento de la penetracion de energia eolica provoca que los sistemas de potencia se vuelvan mas dependientes y vulnerables a las variaciones de la velocidad del viento. El modelado es una herramienta que provee informacion valiosa de la interaccion dinamica entre las turbinas eolicas y las redes de potencia a las que se conectan. El presente articulo desarrolla una caracterizacion realista de un modelo de la turbina eolica. El modelo de la turbina eolica se incorpora a un algoritmo para el analisis de su contribucion a la estabilidad de una red electrica en el dominio del tiempo. La herramienta obtenida se conoce como flujos

  9. Models for Dynamic Applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sales-Cruz, Mauricio; Morales Rodriguez, Ricardo; Heitzig, Martina

    2011-01-01

    This chapter covers aspects of the dynamic modelling and simulation of several complex operations that include a controlled blending tank, a direct methanol fuel cell that incorporates a multiscale model, a fluidised bed reactor, a standard chemical reactor and finally a polymerisation reactor...... be applied to formulate, analyse and solve these dynamic problems and how in the case of the fuel cell problem the model consists of coupledmeso and micro scale models. It is shown how data flows are handled between the models and how the solution is obtained within the modelling environment....

  10. Reservoir resistivity characterization incorporating flow dynamics

    KAUST Repository

    Arango, Santiago; Sun, Shuyu; Hoteit, Ibrahim; Katterbauer, Klemens

    2016-01-01

    Systems and methods for reservoir resistivity characterization are provided, in various aspects, an integrated framework for the estimation of Archie's parameters for a strongly heterogeneous reservoir utilizing the dynamics of the reservoir are provided. The framework can encompass a Bayesian estimation/inversion method for estimating the reservoir parameters, integrating production and time lapse formation conductivity data to achieve a better understanding of the subsurface rock conductivity properties and hence improve water saturation imaging.

  11. Reservoir resistivity characterization incorporating flow dynamics

    KAUST Repository

    Arango, Santiago

    2016-04-07

    Systems and methods for reservoir resistivity characterization are provided, in various aspects, an integrated framework for the estimation of Archie\\'s parameters for a strongly heterogeneous reservoir utilizing the dynamics of the reservoir are provided. The framework can encompass a Bayesian estimation/inversion method for estimating the reservoir parameters, integrating production and time lapse formation conductivity data to achieve a better understanding of the subsurface rock conductivity properties and hence improve water saturation imaging.

  12. Incorporating groundwater flow into the WEPP model

    Science.gov (United States)

    William Elliot; Erin Brooks; Tim Link; Sue Miller

    2010-01-01

    The water erosion prediction project (WEPP) model is a physically-based hydrology and erosion model. In recent years, the hydrology prediction within the model has been improved for forest watershed modeling by incorporating shallow lateral flow into watershed runoff prediction. This has greatly improved WEPP's hydrologic performance on small watersheds with...

  13. Incorporating interfacial phenomena in solidification models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beckermann, Christoph; Wang, Chao Yang

    1994-01-01

    A general methodology is available for the incorporation of microscopic interfacial phenomena in macroscopic solidification models that include diffusion and convection. The method is derived from a formal averaging procedure and a multiphase approach, and relies on the presence of interfacial integrals in the macroscopic transport equations. In a wider engineering context, these techniques are not new, but their application in the analysis and modeling of solidification processes has largely been overlooked. This article describes the techniques and demonstrates their utility in two examples in which microscopic interfacial phenomena are of great importance.

  14. Incorporation of quantum statistical features in molecular dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ohnishi, Akira; Randrup, J.

    1995-01-01

    We formulate a method for incorporating quantum fluctuations into molecular-dynamics simulations of many-body systems, such as those employed for energetic nuclear collision processes. Based on Fermi's Golden Rule, we allow spontaneous transitions to occur between the wave packets which are not energy eigenstates. The ensuing diffusive evolution in the space of the wave packet parameters exhibits appealing physical properties, including relaxation towards quantum-statistical equilibrium. (author)

  15. RETRAN dynamic slip model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McFadden, J.H.; Paulsen, M.P.; Gose, G.C.

    1981-01-01

    Thermal-hydraulic codes in general use for system calculations are based on extensive analyses of loss-of-coolant accidents following the postulated rupture of a large coolant pipe. In this study, time-dependent equation for the slip velocity in a two-phase flow condition has been incorporated into the RETRAN-02 computer code. This model addition was undertaken to remove a limitation in RETRAN-01 associated with the homogeneous equilibrium mixture model. The dynamic slip equation was derived from a set of two-fluid conservation equations. 18 refs

  16. Incorporating neurophysiological concepts in mathematical thermoregulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kingma, Boris R. M.; Vosselman, M. J.; Frijns, A. J. H.; van Steenhoven, A. A.; van Marken Lichtenbelt, W. D.

    2014-01-01

    Skin blood flow (SBF) is a key player in human thermoregulation during mild thermal challenges. Various numerical models of SBF regulation exist. However, none explicitly incorporates the neurophysiology of thermal reception. This study tested a new SBF model that is in line with experimental data on thermal reception and the neurophysiological pathways involved in thermoregulatory SBF control. Additionally, a numerical thermoregulation model was used as a platform to test the function of the neurophysiological SBF model for skin temperature simulation. The prediction-error of the SBF-model was quantified by root-mean-squared-residual (RMSR) between simulations and experimental measurement data. Measurement data consisted of SBF (abdomen, forearm, hand), core and skin temperature recordings of young males during three transient thermal challenges (1 development and 2 validation). Additionally, ThermoSEM, a thermoregulation model, was used to simulate body temperatures using the new neurophysiological SBF-model. The RMSR between simulated and measured mean skin temperature was used to validate the model. The neurophysiological model predicted SBF with an accuracy of RMSR human thermoregulation models can be equipped with SBF control functions that are based on neurophysiology without loss of performance. The neurophysiological approach in modelling thermoregulation is favourable over engineering approaches because it is more in line with the underlying physiology.

  17. Incorporating territory compression into population models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ridley, J; Komdeur, J; Sutherland, WJ; Sutherland, William J.

    The ideal despotic distribution, whereby the lifetime reproductive success a territory's owner achieves is unaffected by population density, is a mainstay of behaviour-based population models. We show that the population dynamics of an island population of Seychelles warblers (Acrocephalus

  18. A Financial Market Model Incorporating Herd Behaviour.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wray, Christopher M; Bishop, Steven R

    2016-01-01

    Herd behaviour in financial markets is a recurring phenomenon that exacerbates asset price volatility, and is considered a possible contributor to market fragility. While numerous studies investigate herd behaviour in financial markets, it is often considered without reference to the pricing of financial instruments or other market dynamics. Here, a trader interaction model based upon informational cascades in the presence of information thresholds is used to construct a new model of asset price returns that allows for both quiescent and herd-like regimes. Agent interaction is modelled using a stochastic pulse-coupled network, parametrised by information thresholds and a network coupling probability. Agents may possess either one or two information thresholds that, in each case, determine the number of distinct states an agent may occupy before trading takes place. In the case where agents possess two thresholds (labelled as the finite state-space model, corresponding to agents' accumulating information over a bounded state-space), and where coupling strength is maximal, an asymptotic expression for the cascade-size probability is derived and shown to follow a power law when a critical value of network coupling probability is attained. For a range of model parameters, a mixture of negative binomial distributions is used to approximate the cascade-size distribution. This approximation is subsequently used to express the volatility of model price returns in terms of the model parameter which controls the network coupling probability. In the case where agents possess a single pulse-coupling threshold (labelled as the semi-infinite state-space model corresponding to agents' accumulating information over an unbounded state-space), numerical evidence is presented that demonstrates volatility clustering and long-memory patterns in the volatility of asset returns. Finally, output from the model is compared to both the distribution of historical stock returns and the market

  19. A Financial Market Model Incorporating Herd Behaviour.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher M Wray

    Full Text Available Herd behaviour in financial markets is a recurring phenomenon that exacerbates asset price volatility, and is considered a possible contributor to market fragility. While numerous studies investigate herd behaviour in financial markets, it is often considered without reference to the pricing of financial instruments or other market dynamics. Here, a trader interaction model based upon informational cascades in the presence of information thresholds is used to construct a new model of asset price returns that allows for both quiescent and herd-like regimes. Agent interaction is modelled using a stochastic pulse-coupled network, parametrised by information thresholds and a network coupling probability. Agents may possess either one or two information thresholds that, in each case, determine the number of distinct states an agent may occupy before trading takes place. In the case where agents possess two thresholds (labelled as the finite state-space model, corresponding to agents' accumulating information over a bounded state-space, and where coupling strength is maximal, an asymptotic expression for the cascade-size probability is derived and shown to follow a power law when a critical value of network coupling probability is attained. For a range of model parameters, a mixture of negative binomial distributions is used to approximate the cascade-size distribution. This approximation is subsequently used to express the volatility of model price returns in terms of the model parameter which controls the network coupling probability. In the case where agents possess a single pulse-coupling threshold (labelled as the semi-infinite state-space model corresponding to agents' accumulating information over an unbounded state-space, numerical evidence is presented that demonstrates volatility clustering and long-memory patterns in the volatility of asset returns. Finally, output from the model is compared to both the distribution of historical stock

  20. A Financial Market Model Incorporating Herd Behaviour

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    Herd behaviour in financial markets is a recurring phenomenon that exacerbates asset price volatility, and is considered a possible contributor to market fragility. While numerous studies investigate herd behaviour in financial markets, it is often considered without reference to the pricing of financial instruments or other market dynamics. Here, a trader interaction model based upon informational cascades in the presence of information thresholds is used to construct a new model of asset price returns that allows for both quiescent and herd-like regimes. Agent interaction is modelled using a stochastic pulse-coupled network, parametrised by information thresholds and a network coupling probability. Agents may possess either one or two information thresholds that, in each case, determine the number of distinct states an agent may occupy before trading takes place. In the case where agents possess two thresholds (labelled as the finite state-space model, corresponding to agents’ accumulating information over a bounded state-space), and where coupling strength is maximal, an asymptotic expression for the cascade-size probability is derived and shown to follow a power law when a critical value of network coupling probability is attained. For a range of model parameters, a mixture of negative binomial distributions is used to approximate the cascade-size distribution. This approximation is subsequently used to express the volatility of model price returns in terms of the model parameter which controls the network coupling probability. In the case where agents possess a single pulse-coupling threshold (labelled as the semi-infinite state-space model corresponding to agents’ accumulating information over an unbounded state-space), numerical evidence is presented that demonstrates volatility clustering and long-memory patterns in the volatility of asset returns. Finally, output from the model is compared to both the distribution of historical stock returns and the

  1. Incorporating damage mechanics into explosion simulation models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sammis, C.G.

    1993-01-01

    The source region of an underground explosion is commonly modeled as a nested series of shells. In the innermost open-quotes hydrodynamic regimeclose quotes pressures and temperatures are sufficiently high that the rock deforms as a fluid and may be described using a PVT equation of state. Just beyond the hydrodynamic regime, is the open-quotes non-linear regimeclose quotes in which the rock has shear strength but the deformation is nonlinear. This regime extends out to the open-quotes elastic radiusclose quotes beyond which the deformation is linear. In this paper, we develop a model for the non-linear regime in crystalline source rock where the nonlinearity is mostly due to fractures. We divide the non-linear regime into a open-quotes damage regimeclose quotes in which the stresses are sufficiently high to nucleate new fractures from preexisting ones and a open-quotes crack-slidingclose quotes regime where motion on preexisting cracks produces amplitude dependent attenuation and other non-linear effects, but no new cracks are nucleated. The boundary between these two regimes is called the open-quotes damage radius.close quotes The micromechanical damage mechanics recently developed by Ashby and Sammis (1990) is used to write an analytic expression for the damage radius in terms of the initial fracture spectrum of the source rock, and to develop an algorithm which may be used to incorporate damage mechanics into computer source models for the damage regime. Effects of water saturation and loading rate are also discussed

  2. The general dynamic model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borregaard, Michael K.; Matthews, Thomas J.; Whittaker, Robert James

    2016-01-01

    Aim: Island biogeography focuses on understanding the processes that underlie a set of well-described patterns on islands, but it lacks a unified theoretical framework for integrating these processes. The recently proposed general dynamic model (GDM) of oceanic island biogeography offers a step...... towards this goal. Here, we present an analysis of causality within the GDM and investigate its potential for the further development of island biogeographical theory. Further, we extend the GDM to include subduction-based island arcs and continental fragment islands. Location: A conceptual analysis...... of evolutionary processes in simulations derived from the mechanistic assumptions of the GDM corresponded broadly to those initially suggested, with the exception of trends in extinction rates. Expanding the model to incorporate different scenarios of island ontogeny and isolation revealed a sensitivity...

  3. Framework for optimal power flow incorporating dynamic system security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Kady, M.A.; Owayedh, M.S.

    2006-01-01

    This paper introduces a novel framework and methodologies which are capable of tackling the complex issue of power system economy versus security in a practical and effective manner. At heart of achieving such a challenging and far-reaching objective is the incorporation of the Dyanamic Security Assessment (DSA) into production optimization techniques using the Transient Energy Function (TEF) method. In addition, and in parallel with the already well established concept of the system security, two new concepts pertaining to power system performance will be introduced in this paper, namely the concept of system dynamic susceptibility, which measures the level of systems weakness to a particular contingency and the concept of system consequent restorability, which measures the extent of contingency severity in terms of the required subsequent system restoration work should a particular contingency occur. (author)

  4. Incorporating nitrogen fixing cyanobacteria in the global biogeochemical model HAMOCC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paulsen, Hanna; Ilyina, Tatiana; Six, Katharina

    2015-04-01

    Nitrogen fixation by marine diazotrophs plays a fundamental role in the oceanic nitrogen and carbon cycle as it provides a major source of 'new' nitrogen to the euphotic zone that supports biological carbon export and sequestration. Since most global biogeochemical models include nitrogen fixation only diagnostically, they are not able to capture its spatial pattern sufficiently. Here we present the incorporation of an explicit, dynamic representation of diazotrophic cyanobacteria and the corresponding nitrogen fixation in the global ocean biogeochemical model HAMOCC (Hamburg Ocean Carbon Cycle model), which is part of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth system model (MPI-ESM). The parameterization of the diazotrophic growth is thereby based on available knowledge about the cyanobacterium Trichodesmium spp., which is considered as the most significant pelagic nitrogen fixer. Evaluation against observations shows that the model successfully reproduces the main spatial distribution of cyanobacteria and nitrogen fixation, covering large parts of the tropical and subtropical oceans. Besides the role of cyanobacteria in marine biogeochemical cycles, their capacity to form extensive surface blooms induces a number of bio-physical feedback mechanisms in the Earth system. The processes driving these interactions, which are related to the alteration of heat absorption, surface albedo and momentum input by wind, are incorporated in the biogeochemical and physical model of the MPI-ESM in order to investigate their impacts on a global scale. First preliminary results will be shown.

  5. Incorporating Phase-Dependent Polarizability in Non-Additive Electrostatic Models for Molecular Dynamics Simulations of the Aqueous Liquid-Vapor Interface.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Brad A; Warren, G Lee; Patel, Sandeep

    2009-02-10

    We discuss a new classical water force field that explicitly accounts for differences in polarizability between liquid and vapor phases. The TIP4P-QDP (4-point transferable intermolecular potential with charge dependent-polarizability) force field is a modification of the original TIP4P-FQ fluctuating charge water force field of Rick et al.(1) that self-consistently adjusts its atomic hardness parameters via a scaling function dependent on the M-site charge. The electronegativity (χ) parameters are also scaled in order to reproduce condensed-phase dipole moments of comparable magnitude to TIP4P-FQ. TIP4P-QDP is parameterized to reproduce experimental gas-phase and select condensed-phase properties. The TIP4P-QDP water model possesses a gas phase polarizability of 1.40 Å(3) and gas-phase dipole moment of 1.85 Debye, in excellent agreement with experiment and high-level ab initio predictions. The liquid density of TIP4P-QDP is 0.9954(±0.0002) g/cm(3) at 298 K and 1 atmosphere, and the enthalpy of vaporization is 10.55(±0.12) kcal/mol. Other condensed-phase properties such as the isobaric heat capacity, isothermal compressibility, and diffusion constant are also calculated within reasonable accuracy of experiment and consistent with predictions of other current state-of-the-art water force fields. The average molecular dipole moment of TIP4P-QDP in the condensed phase is 2.641(±0.001) Debye, approximately 0.02 Debye higher than TIP4P-FQ and within the range of values currently surmised for the bulk liquid. The dielectric constant, ε = 85.8 ± 1.0, is 10% higher than experiment. This is reasoned to be due to the increase in the condensed phase dipole moment over TIP4P-FQ, which estimates ε remarkably well. Radial distribution functions for TIP4P-QDP and TIP4P-FQ show similar features, with TIP4P-QDP showing slightly reduced peak heights and subtle shifts towards larger distance interactions. Since the greatest effects of the phase-dependent polarizability are

  6. Incorporating Phase-Dependent Polarizability in Non-Additive Electrostatic Models for Molecular Dynamics Simulations of the Aqueous Liquid-Vapor Interface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Brad A.; Warren, G. Lee; Patel, Sandeep

    2012-01-01

    We discuss a new classical water force field that explicitly accounts for differences in polarizability between liquid and vapor phases. The TIP4P-QDP (4-point transferable intermolecular potential with charge dependent-polarizability) force field is a modification of the original TIP4P-FQ fluctuating charge water force field of Rick et al.1 that self-consistently adjusts its atomic hardness parameters via a scaling function dependent on the M-site charge. The electronegativity (χ) parameters are also scaled in order to reproduce condensed-phase dipole moments of comparable magnitude to TIP4P-FQ. TIP4P-QDP is parameterized to reproduce experimental gas-phase and select condensed-phase properties. The TIP4P-QDP water model possesses a gas phase polarizability of 1.40 Å3 and gas-phase dipole moment of 1.85 Debye, in excellent agreement with experiment and high-level ab initio predictions. The liquid density of TIP4P-QDP is 0.9954(±0.0002) g/cm3 at 298 K and 1 atmosphere, and the enthalpy of vaporization is 10.55(±0.12) kcal/mol. Other condensed-phase properties such as the isobaric heat capacity, isothermal compressibility, and diffusion constant are also calculated within reasonable accuracy of experiment and consistent with predictions of other current state-of-the-art water force fields. The average molecular dipole moment of TIP4P-QDP in the condensed phase is 2.641(±0.001) Debye, approximately 0.02 Debye higher than TIP4P-FQ and within the range of values currently surmised for the bulk liquid. The dielectric constant, ε = 85.8 ± 1.0, is 10% higher than experiment. This is reasoned to be due to the increase in the condensed phase dipole moment over TIP4P-FQ, which estimates ε remarkably well. Radial distribution functions for TIP4P-QDP and TIP4P-FQ show similar features, with TIP4P-QDP showing slightly reduced peak heights and subtle shifts towards larger distance interactions. Since the greatest effects of the phase-dependent polarizability are

  7. Incorporating Resilience into Dynamic Social Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-07-20

    form contains classified information, stamp classification level on the top and bottom of this page. 17. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT. This block must be...resilience as a multi- level resilience and study their resilience at individual, family and society levels . However, having more than one level on a...4] U. Fischbacher, S. Gächter, and E. Fehr, “Are People Conditionally Cooperative ? Evidence from a Public Goods Experiment,” Econ . Lett., vol

  8. Incorporating direct marketing activity into latent attrition models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schweidel, David A.; Knox, George

    2013-01-01

    When defection is unobserved, latent attrition models provide useful insights about customer behavior and accurate forecasts of customer value. Yet extant models ignore direct marketing efforts. Response models incorporate the effects of direct marketing, but because they ignore latent attrition,

  9. Modeling dynamic swarms

    KAUST Repository

    Ghanem, Bernard; Ahuja, Narendra

    2013-01-01

    This paper proposes the problem of modeling video sequences of dynamic swarms (DSs). We define a DS as a large layout of stochastically repetitive spatial configurations of dynamic objects (swarm elements) whose motions exhibit local spatiotemporal

  10. Characteristic dynamics near two coalescing eigenvalues incorporating continuum threshold effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garmon, Savannah; Ordonez, Gonzalo

    2017-06-01

    It has been reported in the literature that the survival probability P(t) near an exceptional point where two eigenstates coalesce should generally exhibit an evolution P (t ) ˜t2e-Γ t, in which Γ is the decay rate of the coalesced eigenstate; this has been verified in a microwave billiard experiment [B. Dietz et al., Phys. Rev. E 75, 027201 (2007)]. However, the heuristic effective Hamiltonian that is usually employed to obtain this result ignores the possible influence of the continuum threshold on the dynamics. By contrast, in this work we employ an analytical approach starting from the microscopic Hamiltonian representing two simple models in order to show that the continuum threshold has a strong influence on the dynamics near exceptional points in a variety of circumstances. To report our results, we divide the exceptional points in Hermitian open quantum systems into two cases: at an EP2A two virtual bound states coalesce before forming a resonance, anti-resonance pair with complex conjugate eigenvalues, while at an EP2B two resonances coalesce before forming two different resonances. For the EP2B, which is the case studied in the microwave billiard experiment, we verify that the survival probability exhibits the previously reported modified exponential decay on intermediate time scales, but this is replaced with an inverse power law on very long time scales. Meanwhile, for the EP2A the influence from the continuum threshold is so strong that the evolution is non-exponential on all time scales and the heuristic approach fails completely. When the EP2A appears very near the threshold, we obtain the novel evolution P (t ) ˜1 -C1√{t } on intermediate time scales, while further away the parabolic decay (Zeno dynamics) on short time scales is enhanced.

  11. Incorporating uncertainty in predictive species distribution modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beale, Colin M; Lennon, Jack J

    2012-01-19

    Motivated by the need to solve ecological problems (climate change, habitat fragmentation and biological invasions), there has been increasing interest in species distribution models (SDMs). Predictions from these models inform conservation policy, invasive species management and disease-control measures. However, predictions are subject to uncertainty, the degree and source of which is often unrecognized. Here, we review the SDM literature in the context of uncertainty, focusing on three main classes of SDM: niche-based models, demographic models and process-based models. We identify sources of uncertainty for each class and discuss how uncertainty can be minimized or included in the modelling process to give realistic measures of confidence around predictions. Because this has typically not been performed, we conclude that uncertainty in SDMs has often been underestimated and a false precision assigned to predictions of geographical distribution. We identify areas where development of new statistical tools will improve predictions from distribution models, notably the development of hierarchical models that link different types of distribution model and their attendant uncertainties across spatial scales. Finally, we discuss the need to develop more defensible methods for assessing predictive performance, quantifying model goodness-of-fit and for assessing the significance of model covariates.

  12. Dynamic Latent Classification Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhong, Shengtong; Martínez, Ana M.; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre

    as possible. Motivated by this problem setting, we propose a generative model for dynamic classification in continuous domains. At each time point the model can be seen as combining a naive Bayes model with a mixture of factor analyzers (FA). The latent variables of the FA are used to capture the dynamics...

  13. A mathematical model for incorporating biofeedback into human postural control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ersal Tulga

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Biofeedback of body motion can serve as a balance aid and rehabilitation tool. To date, mathematical models considering the integration of biofeedback into postural control have represented this integration as a sensory addition and limited their application to a single degree-of-freedom representation of the body. This study has two objectives: 1 to develop a scalable method for incorporating biofeedback into postural control that is independent of the model’s degrees of freedom, how it handles sensory integration, and the modeling of its postural controller; and 2 to validate this new model using multidirectional perturbation experimental results. Methods Biofeedback was modeled as an additional torque to the postural controller torque. For validation, this biofeedback modeling approach was applied to a vibrotactile biofeedback device and incorporated into a two-link multibody model with full-state-feedback control that represents the dynamics of bipedal stance. Average response trajectories of body sway and center of pressure (COP to multidirectional surface perturbations of subjects with vestibular deficits were used for model parameterization and validation in multiple perturbation directions and for multiple display resolutions. The quality of fit was quantified using average error and cross-correlation values. Results The mean of the average errors across all tactor configurations and perturbations was 0.24° for body sway and 0.39 cm for COP. The mean of the cross-correlation value was 0.97 for both body sway and COP. Conclusions The biofeedback model developed in this study is capable of capturing experimental response trajectory shapes with low average errors and high cross-correlation values in both the anterior-posterior and medial-lateral directions for all perturbation directions and spatial resolution display configurations considered. The results validate that biofeedback can be modeled as an additional

  14. A mathematical model for incorporating biofeedback into human postural control

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background Biofeedback of body motion can serve as a balance aid and rehabilitation tool. To date, mathematical models considering the integration of biofeedback into postural control have represented this integration as a sensory addition and limited their application to a single degree-of-freedom representation of the body. This study has two objectives: 1) to develop a scalable method for incorporating biofeedback into postural control that is independent of the model’s degrees of freedom, how it handles sensory integration, and the modeling of its postural controller; and 2) to validate this new model using multidirectional perturbation experimental results. Methods Biofeedback was modeled as an additional torque to the postural controller torque. For validation, this biofeedback modeling approach was applied to a vibrotactile biofeedback device and incorporated into a two-link multibody model with full-state-feedback control that represents the dynamics of bipedal stance. Average response trajectories of body sway and center of pressure (COP) to multidirectional surface perturbations of subjects with vestibular deficits were used for model parameterization and validation in multiple perturbation directions and for multiple display resolutions. The quality of fit was quantified using average error and cross-correlation values. Results The mean of the average errors across all tactor configurations and perturbations was 0.24° for body sway and 0.39 cm for COP. The mean of the cross-correlation value was 0.97 for both body sway and COP. Conclusions The biofeedback model developed in this study is capable of capturing experimental response trajectory shapes with low average errors and high cross-correlation values in both the anterior-posterior and medial-lateral directions for all perturbation directions and spatial resolution display configurations considered. The results validate that biofeedback can be modeled as an additional torque to the postural

  15. Tantalum strength model incorporating temperature, strain rate and pressure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Hojun; Battaile, Corbett; Brown, Justin; Lane, Matt

    Tantalum is a body-centered-cubic (BCC) refractory metal that is widely used in many applications in high temperature, strain rate and pressure environments. In this work, we propose a physically-based strength model for tantalum that incorporates effects of temperature, strain rate and pressure. A constitutive model for single crystal tantalum is developed based on dislocation kink-pair theory, and calibrated to measurements on single crystal specimens. The model is then used to predict deformations of single- and polycrystalline tantalum. In addition, the proposed strength model is implemented into Sandia's ALEGRA solid dynamics code to predict plastic deformations of tantalum in engineering-scale applications at extreme conditions, e.g. Taylor impact tests and Z machine's high pressure ramp compression tests, and the results are compared with available experimental data. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

  16. Equivalent Dynamic Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molenaar, Peter C M

    2017-01-01

    Equivalences of two classes of dynamic models for weakly stationary multivariate time series are discussed: dynamic factor models and autoregressive models. It is shown that exploratory dynamic factor models can be rotated, yielding an infinite set of equivalent solutions for any observed series. It also is shown that dynamic factor models with lagged factor loadings are not equivalent to the currently popular state-space models, and that restriction of attention to the latter type of models may yield invalid results. The known equivalent vector autoregressive model types, standard and structural, are given a new interpretation in which they are conceived of as the extremes of an innovating type of hybrid vector autoregressive models. It is shown that consideration of hybrid models solves many problems, in particular with Granger causality testing.

  17. Two improvements to the dynamic wake meandering model: including the effects of atmospheric shear on wake turbulence and incorporating turbulence build-up in a row of wind turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Keck, Rolf-Erik; de Mare, Martin Tobias; Churchfield, Matthew J.

    2015-01-01

    The dynamic wake meandering (DWM) model is an engineering wake model designed to physically model the wake deficit evolution and the unsteady meandering that occurs in wind turbine wakes. The present study aims at improving two features of the model: The effect of the atmospheric boundary layer s...

  18. Incorporating Context Dependency of Species Interactions in Species Distribution Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lany, Nina K; Zarnetske, Phoebe L; Gouhier, Tarik C; Menge, Bruce A

    2017-07-01

    Species distribution models typically use correlative approaches that characterize the species-environment relationship using occurrence or abundance data for a single species. However, species distributions are determined by both abiotic conditions and biotic interactions with other species in the community. Therefore, climate change is expected to impact species through direct effects on their physiology and indirect effects propagated through their resources, predators, competitors, or mutualists. Furthermore, the sign and strength of species interactions can change according to abiotic conditions, resulting in context-dependent species interactions that may change across space or with climate change. Here, we incorporated the context dependency of species interactions into a dynamic species distribution model. We developed a multi-species model that uses a time-series of observational survey data to evaluate how abiotic conditions and species interactions affect the dynamics of three rocky intertidal species. The model further distinguishes between the direct effects of abiotic conditions on abundance and the indirect effects propagated through interactions with other species. We apply the model to keystone predation by the sea star Pisaster ochraceus on the mussel Mytilus californianus and the barnacle Balanus glandula in the rocky intertidal zone of the Pacific coast, USA. Our method indicated that biotic interactions between P. ochraceus and B. glandula affected B. glandula dynamics across >1000 km of coastline. Consistent with patterns from keystone predation, the growth rate of B. glandula varied according to the abundance of P. ochraceus in the previous year. The data and the model did not indicate that the strength of keystone predation by P. ochraceus varied with a mean annual upwelling index. Balanus glandula cover increased following years with high phytoplankton abundance measured as mean annual chlorophyll-a. M. californianus exhibited the same

  19. An approach to incorporate the detonation shock dynamics into the calculation of explosive acceleration of metals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Qingzhong; Sun Chengwei; Zhao Feng; Gao Wen; Wen Shanggang; Liu Wenhan

    1999-11-01

    The generalized geometrical optics model for the detonation shock dynamics (DSD) has been incorporated into the two dimensional hydro-code WSU to form a combination code ADW for numerical simulation of explosive acceleration of metals. An analytical treatment of the coupling conditions at the nodes just behind the detonation front is proposed. The experiments on two kinds of explosive-flyer assemblies with different length/diameter ratio were carried out to verify the ADW calculations, where the tested explosive was HMX or TATB based. It is found that the combination of DSD and hydro-code can improve the calculation precision, and has advantages in larger meshes and less CPU time

  20. A dynamical model of terrorism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Firdaus Udwadia

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper develops a dynamical model of terrorism. We consider the population in a given region as being made up of three primary components: terrorists, those susceptible to both terrorist and pacifist propaganda, and nonsusceptibles, or pacifists. The dynamical behavior of these three populations is studied using a model that incorporates the effects of both direct military/police intervention to reduce the terrorist population, and nonviolent, persuasive intervention to influence the susceptibles to become pacifists. The paper proposes a new paradigm for studying terrorism, and looks at the long-term dynamical evolution in time of these three population components when such interventions are carried out. Many important features—some intuitive, others not nearly so—of the nature of terrorism emerge from the dynamical model proposed, and they lead to several important policy implications for the management of terrorism. The different circumstances in which nonviolent intervention and/or military/police intervention may be beneficial, and the specific conditions under which each mode of intervention, or a combination of both, may be useful, are obtained. The novelty of the model presented herein is that it deals with the time evolution of terrorist activity. It appears to be one of the few models that can be tested, evaluated, and improved upon, through the use of actual field data.

  1. Incorporating moving dynamic tyre loads in pavement design and analysis

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Steyn, WJvdM

    2000-07-01

    Full Text Available at the University of Pretoria. 4 REAL LIFE TYRE LOADS Characterisation Pavement loading has been shown by various authors to be a dynamic (time-dependent) phenomenon (Divine, 1997; Cebon, 1999). A pavement experiences a vehicle as a moving, time-varying set... frequencies. Body bounce generally dominates the dynamic loading, and is mainly caused by the response of the sprung mass of the vehicle to the pavement roughness. Axle hop becomes more significant at higher vehicle speeds and higher pavement roughnesses...

  2. Dynamic term structure models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andreasen, Martin Møller; Meldrum, Andrew

    This paper studies whether dynamic term structure models for US nominal bond yields should enforce the zero lower bound by a quadratic policy rate or a shadow rate specification. We address the question by estimating quadratic term structure models (QTSMs) and shadow rate models with at most four...

  3. True dose from incorporated activities. Models for internal dosimetry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Breustedt, B.; Eschner, W.; Nosske, D.

    2012-01-01

    The assessment of doses after incorporation of radionuclides cannot use direct measurements of the doses, as for example dosimetry in external radiation fields. The only observables are activities in the body or in excretions. Models are used to calculate the doses based on the measured activities. The incorporated activities and the resulting doses can vary by more than seven orders of magnitude between occupational and medical exposures. Nevertheless the models and calculations applied in both cases are similar. Since the models for the different applications have been developed independently by ICRP and MIRD different terminologies have been used. A unified terminology is being developed. (orig.)

  4. Long range personalized cancer treatment strategies incorporating evolutionary dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeang, Chen-Hsiang; Beckman, Robert A

    2016-10-22

    Current cancer precision medicine strategies match therapies to static consensus molecular properties of an individual's cancer, thus determining the next therapeutic maneuver. These strategies typically maintain a constant treatment while the cancer is not worsening. However, cancers feature complicated sub-clonal structure and dynamic evolution. We have recently shown, in a comprehensive simulation of two non-cross resistant therapies across a broad parameter space representing realistic tumors, that substantial improvement in cure rates and median survival can be obtained utilizing dynamic precision medicine strategies. These dynamic strategies explicitly consider intratumoral heterogeneity and evolutionary dynamics, including predicted future drug resistance states, and reevaluate optimal therapy every 45 days. However, the optimization is performed in single 45 day steps ("single-step optimization"). Herein we evaluate analogous strategies that think multiple therapeutic maneuvers ahead, considering potential outcomes at 5 steps ahead ("multi-step optimization") or 40 steps ahead ("adaptive long term optimization (ALTO)") when recommending the optimal therapy in each 45 day block, in simulations involving both 2 and 3 non-cross resistant therapies. We also evaluate an ALTO approach for situations where simultaneous combination therapy is not feasible ("Adaptive long term optimization: serial monotherapy only (ALTO-SMO)"). Simulations utilize populations of 764,000 and 1,700,000 virtual patients for 2 and 3 drug cases, respectively. Each virtual patient represents a unique clinical presentation including sizes of major and minor tumor subclones, growth rates, evolution rates, and drug sensitivities. While multi-step optimization and ALTO provide no significant average survival benefit, cure rates are significantly increased by ALTO. Furthermore, in the subset of individual virtual patients demonstrating clinically significant difference in outcome between

  5. Dynamic accelerator modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nishimura, Hiroshi.

    1993-05-01

    Object-Oriented Programming has been used extensively to model the LBL Advanced Light Source 1.5 GeV electron storage ring. This paper is on the present status of the class library construction with emphasis on a dynamic modeling

  6. Dynamic panel data models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bun, M.J.G.; Sarafidis, V.

    2013-01-01

    This Chapter reviews the recent literature on dynamic panel data models with a short time span and a large cross-section. Throughout the discussion we considerlinear models with additional endogenous covariates. First we give a broad overview of available inference methods placing emphasis on GMM.

  7. RETRAN dynamic slip model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McFadden, J.H.; Paulsen, M.P.; Gose, G.C.

    1981-01-01

    A time dependent equation for the slip velocity in a two-phase flow condition has been incorporated into a developmental version of the RETRAN computer code. This model addition has been undertaken to remove a limitation in RETRAN-01 associated with the homogeneous equilibrium mixture model. In this paper, the development of the slip model is summarized and the corresponding constitutive equations are discussed. Comparisons of RETRAN analyses with steady-state void fraction data and data from the Semiscale S-02-6 small break test are also presented

  8. Modeling dynamic swarms

    KAUST Repository

    Ghanem, Bernard

    2013-01-01

    This paper proposes the problem of modeling video sequences of dynamic swarms (DSs). We define a DS as a large layout of stochastically repetitive spatial configurations of dynamic objects (swarm elements) whose motions exhibit local spatiotemporal interdependency and stationarity, i.e., the motions are similar in any small spatiotemporal neighborhood. Examples of DS abound in nature, e.g., herds of animals and flocks of birds. To capture the local spatiotemporal properties of the DS, we present a probabilistic model that learns both the spatial layout of swarm elements (based on low-level image segmentation) and their joint dynamics that are modeled as linear transformations. To this end, a spatiotemporal neighborhood is associated with each swarm element, in which local stationarity is enforced both spatially and temporally. We assume that the prior on the swarm dynamics is distributed according to an MRF in both space and time. Embedding this model in a MAP framework, we iterate between learning the spatial layout of the swarm and its dynamics. We learn the swarm transformations using ICM, which iterates between estimating these transformations and updating their distribution in the spatiotemporal neighborhoods. We demonstrate the validity of our method by conducting experiments on real and synthetic video sequences. Real sequences of birds, geese, robot swarms, and pedestrians evaluate the applicability of our model to real world data. © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Incorporating parametric uncertainty into population viability analysis models

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGowan, Conor P.; Runge, Michael C.; Larson, Michael A.

    2011-01-01

    Uncertainty in parameter estimates from sampling variation or expert judgment can introduce substantial uncertainty into ecological predictions based on those estimates. However, in standard population viability analyses, one of the most widely used tools for managing plant, fish and wildlife populations, parametric uncertainty is often ignored in or discarded from model projections. We present a method for explicitly incorporating this source of uncertainty into population models to fully account for risk in management and decision contexts. Our method involves a two-step simulation process where parametric uncertainty is incorporated into the replication loop of the model and temporal variance is incorporated into the loop for time steps in the model. Using the piping plover, a federally threatened shorebird in the USA and Canada, as an example, we compare abundance projections and extinction probabilities from simulations that exclude and include parametric uncertainty. Although final abundance was very low for all sets of simulations, estimated extinction risk was much greater for the simulation that incorporated parametric uncertainty in the replication loop. Decisions about species conservation (e.g., listing, delisting, and jeopardy) might differ greatly depending on the treatment of parametric uncertainty in population models.

  10. "Violent Intent Modeling: Incorporating Cultural Knowledge into the Analytical Process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sanfilippo, Antonio P.; Nibbs, Faith G.

    2007-08-24

    While culture has a significant effect on the appropriate interpretation of textual data, the incorporation of cultural considerations into data transformations has not been systematic. Recognizing that the successful prevention of terrorist activities could hinge on the knowledge of the subcultures, Anthropologist and DHS intern Faith Nibbs has been addressing the need to incorporate cultural knowledge into the analytical process. In this Brown Bag she will present how cultural ideology is being used to understand how the rhetoric of group leaders influences the likelihood of their constituents to engage in violent or radicalized behavior, and how violent intent modeling can benefit from understanding that process.

  11. Corruption dynamics model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malafeyev, O. A.; Nemnyugin, S. A.; Rylow, D.; Kolpak, E. P.; Awasthi, Achal

    2017-07-01

    The corruption dynamics is analyzed by means of the lattice model which is similar to the three-dimensional Ising model. Agents placed at nodes of the corrupt network periodically choose to perfom or not to perform the act of corruption at gain or loss while making decisions based on the process history. The gain value and its dynamics are defined by means of the Markov stochastic process modelling with parameters established in accordance with the influence of external and individual factors on the agent's gain. The model is formulated algorithmically and is studied by means of the computer simulation. Numerical results are obtained which demonstrate asymptotic behaviour of the corruption network under various conditions.

  12. Modelling the Dynamics of Emotional Awareness

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thilakarathne, D.J.; Treur, J.; Schaub, T.

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, based on literature from Cognitive and Affective Neuroscience, a computational agent model is introduced incorporating the role of emotional awareness states in the dynamics of action generation. More specifically, it covers both automatic, unconscious (bottom-up) and more cognitive

  13. The importance of incorporating functional habitats into conservation planning for highly mobile species in dynamic systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Matthew H; Terauds, Aleks; Tulloch, Ayesha; Bell, Phil; Stojanovic, Dejan; Heinsohn, Robert

    2017-10-01

    The distribution of mobile species in dynamic systems can vary greatly over time and space. Estimating their population size and geographic range can be problematic and affect the accuracy of conservation assessments. Scarce data on mobile species and the resources they need can also limit the type of analytical approaches available to derive such estimates. We quantified change in availability and use of key ecological resources required for breeding for a critically endangered nomadic habitat specialist, the Swift Parrot (Lathamus discolor). We compared estimates of occupied habitat derived from dynamic presence-background (i.e., presence-only data) climatic models with estimates derived from dynamic occupancy models that included a direct measure of food availability. We then compared estimates that incorporate fine-resolution spatial data on the availability of key ecological resources (i.e., functional habitats) with more common approaches that focus on broader climatic suitability or vegetation cover (due to the absence of fine-resolution data). The occupancy models produced significantly (P increase or decrease in the area of one functional habitat (foraging or nesting) did not necessarily correspond to an increase or decrease in the other. Thus, an increase in the extent of occupied area may not equate to improved habitat quality or function. We argue these patterns are typical for mobile resource specialists but often go unnoticed because of limited data over relevant spatial and temporal scales and lack of spatial data on the availability of key resources. Understanding changes in the relative availability of functional habitats is crucial to informing conservation planning and accurately assessing extinction risk for mobile resource specialists. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

  14. Incorporation of ice sheet models into an Earth system model: Focus on methodology of coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rybak, Oleg; Volodin, Evgeny; Morozova, Polina; Nevecherja, Artiom

    2018-03-01

    Elaboration of a modern Earth system model (ESM) requires incorporation of ice sheet dynamics. Coupling of an ice sheet model (ICM) to an AOGCM is complicated by essential differences in spatial and temporal scales of cryospheric, atmospheric and oceanic components. To overcome this difficulty, we apply two different approaches for the incorporation of ice sheets into an ESM. Coupling of the Antarctic ice sheet model (AISM) to the AOGCM is accomplished via using procedures of resampling, interpolation and assigning to the AISM grid points annually averaged meanings of air surface temperature and precipitation fields generated by the AOGCM. Surface melting, which takes place mainly on the margins of the Antarctic peninsula and on ice shelves fringing the continent, is currently ignored. AISM returns anomalies of surface topography back to the AOGCM. To couple the Greenland ice sheet model (GrISM) to the AOGCM, we use a simple buffer energy- and water-balance model (EWBM-G) to account for orographically-driven precipitation and other sub-grid AOGCM-generated quantities. The output of the EWBM-G consists of surface mass balance and air surface temperature to force the GrISM, and freshwater run-off to force thermohaline circulation in the oceanic block of the AOGCM. Because of a rather complex coupling procedure of GrIS compared to AIS, the paper mostly focuses on Greenland.

  15. DYNAMIC LOAD DAMPER MODELING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Loktev Aleksey Alekseevich

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The authors present their findings associated with their modeling of a dynamic load damper. According to the authors, the damper is to be installed onto a structure or its element that may be exposed to impact, vibration or any other dynamic loading. The damper is composed of paralleled or consecutively connected viscous and elastic elements. The authors study the influence of viscosity and elasticity parameters of the damper produced onto the regular displacement of points of the structure to be protected and onto the regular acceleration transmitted immediately from the damper to the elements positioned below it.

  16. 3.5D dynamic PET image reconstruction incorporating kinetics-based clusters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu Lijun; Chen Wufan; Karakatsanis, Nicolas A; Rahmim, Arman; Tang Jing

    2012-01-01

    Standard 3D dynamic positron emission tomographic (PET) imaging consists of independent image reconstructions of individual frames followed by application of appropriate kinetic model to the time activity curves at the voxel or region-of-interest (ROI). The emerging field of 4D PET reconstruction, by contrast, seeks to move beyond this scheme and incorporate information from multiple frames within the image reconstruction task. Here we propose a novel reconstruction framework aiming to enhance quantitative accuracy of parametric images via introduction of priors based on voxel kinetics, as generated via clustering of preliminary reconstructed dynamic images to define clustered neighborhoods of voxels with similar kinetics. This is then followed by straightforward maximum a posteriori (MAP) 3D PET reconstruction as applied to individual frames; and as such the method is labeled ‘3.5D’ image reconstruction. The use of cluster-based priors has the advantage of further enhancing quantitative performance in dynamic PET imaging, because: (a) there are typically more voxels in clusters than in conventional local neighborhoods, and (b) neighboring voxels with distinct kinetics are less likely to be clustered together. Using realistic simulated 11 C-raclopride dynamic PET data, the quantitative performance of the proposed method was investigated. Parametric distribution-volume (DV) and DV ratio (DVR) images were estimated from dynamic image reconstructions using (a) maximum-likelihood expectation maximization (MLEM), and MAP reconstructions using (b) the quadratic prior (QP-MAP), (c) the Green prior (GP-MAP) and (d, e) two proposed cluster-based priors (CP-U-MAP and CP-W-MAP), followed by graphical modeling, and were qualitatively and quantitatively compared for 11 ROIs. Overall, the proposed dynamic PET reconstruction methodology resulted in substantial visual as well as quantitative accuracy improvements (in terms of noise versus bias performance) for parametric DV

  17. Dynamic wake meandering modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larsen, Gunner C.; Aagaard Madsen, H.; Bingoel, F. (and others)

    2007-06-15

    We present a consistent, physically based theory for the wake meandering phenomenon, which we consider of crucial importance for the overall description of wind turbine loadings in wind farms. In its present version the model is confined to single wake situations. The model philosophy does, however, have the potential to include also mutual wake interaction phenomenons. The basic conjecture behind the dynamic wake meandering model is that wake transportation in the atmospheric boundary layer is driven by the large scale lateral- and vertical turbulence components. Based on this conjecture a stochastic model of the downstream wake meandering is formulated. In addition to the kinematic formulation of the dynamics of the 'meandering frame of reference', models characterizing the mean wake deficit as well as the added wake turbulence, described in the meandering frame of reference, are an integrated part the model complex. For design applications, the computational efficiency of wake deficit prediction is a key issue. Two computationally low cost models are developed for this purpose. The character of the added wake turbulence, generated by the up-stream turbine in the form of shed and trailed vorticity, has been approached by analytical as well as by numerical studies. The dynamic wake meandering philosophy has been verified by comparing model predictions with extensive full-scale measurements. These comparisons have demonstrated good agreement, both qualitatively and quantitatively, concerning both flow characteristics and turbine load characteristics. Contrary to previous attempts to model wake loading, the dynamic wake meandering approach opens for a unifying description in the sense that turbine power and load aspects can be treated simultaneously. This capability is a direct and attractive consequence of the model being based on the underlying physical process, and it potentially opens for optimization of wind farm topology, of wind farm operation as

  18. Dynamical chiral bag model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colanero, K.; Chu, M.-C.

    2002-01-01

    We study a dynamical chiral bag model, in which massless fermions are confined within an impenetrable but movable bag coupled to meson fields. The self-consistent motion of the bag is obtained by solving the equations of motion exactly assuming spherical symmetry. When the bag interacts with an external meson wave we find three different kinds of resonances: fermionic, geometric, and σ resonances. We discuss the phenomenological implications of our results

  19. Model for macroevolutionary dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maruvka, Yosef E; Shnerb, Nadav M; Kessler, David A; Ricklefs, Robert E

    2013-07-02

    The highly skewed distribution of species among genera, although challenging to macroevolutionists, provides an opportunity to understand the dynamics of diversification, including species formation, extinction, and morphological evolution. Early models were based on either the work by Yule [Yule GU (1925) Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 213:21-87], which neglects extinction, or a simple birth-death (speciation-extinction) process. Here, we extend the more recent development of a generic, neutral speciation-extinction (of species)-origination (of genera; SEO) model for macroevolutionary dynamics of taxon diversification. Simulations show that deviations from the homogeneity assumptions in the model can be detected in species-per-genus distributions. The SEO model fits observed species-per-genus distributions well for class-to-kingdom-sized taxonomic groups. The model's predictions for the appearance times (the time of the first existing species) of the taxonomic groups also approximately match estimates based on molecular inference and fossil records. Unlike estimates based on analyses of phylogenetic reconstruction, fitted extinction rates for large clades are close to speciation rates, consistent with high rates of species turnover and the relatively slow change in diversity observed in the fossil record. Finally, the SEO model generally supports the consistency of generic boundaries based on morphological differences between species and provides a comparator for rates of lineage splitting and morphological evolution.

  20. Conceptual Design Optimization of an Augmented Stability Aircraft Incorporating Dynamic Response Performance Constraints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welstead, Jason

    2014-01-01

    This research focused on incorporating stability and control into a multidisciplinary de- sign optimization on a Boeing 737-class advanced concept called the D8.2b. A new method of evaluating the aircraft handling performance using quantitative evaluation of the sys- tem to disturbances, including perturbations, continuous turbulence, and discrete gusts, is presented. A multidisciplinary design optimization was performed using the D8.2b transport air- craft concept. The con guration was optimized for minimum fuel burn using a design range of 3,000 nautical miles. Optimization cases were run using xed tail volume coecients, static trim constraints, and static trim and dynamic response constraints. A Cessna 182T model was used to test the various dynamic analysis components, ensuring the analysis was behaving as expected. Results of the optimizations show that including stability and con- trol in the design process drastically alters the optimal design, indicating that stability and control should be included in conceptual design to avoid system level penalties later in the design process.

  1. Methods improvements incorporated into the SAPHIRE ASP models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sattison, M.B.; Blackman, H.S.; Novack, S.D.; Smith, C.L.; Rasmuson, D.M.

    1994-01-01

    The Office for Analysis and Evaluation of Operational Data (AEOD) has sought the assistance of the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) to make some significant enhancements to the SAPHIRE-based Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) models recently developed by the INEL. The challenge of this project is to provide the features of a full-scale PRA within the framework of the simplified ASP models. Some of these features include: (1) uncertainty analysis addressing the standard PRA uncertainties and the uncertainties unique to the ASP models and methodology, (2) incorporation and proper quantification of individual human actions and the interaction among human actions, (3) enhanced treatment of common cause failures, and (4) extension of the ASP models to more closely mimic full-scale PRAs (inclusion of more initiators, explicitly modeling support system failures, etc.). This paper provides an overview of the methods being used to make the above improvements

  2. Methods improvements incorporated into the SAPHIRE ASP models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sattison, M.B.; Blackman, H.S.; Novack, S.D.

    1995-01-01

    The Office for Analysis and Evaluation of Operational Data (AEOD) has sought the assistance of the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) to make some significant enhancements to the SAPHIRE-based Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) models recently developed by the INEL. The challenge of this project is to provide the features of a full-scale PRA within the framework of the simplified ASP models. Some of these features include: (1) uncertainty analysis addressing the standard PRA uncertainties and the uncertainties unique to the ASP models and methods, (2) incorporation and proper quantification of individual human actions and the interaction among human actions, (3) enhanced treatment of common cause failures, and (4) extension of the ASP models to more closely mimic full-scale PRAs (inclusion of more initiators, explicitly modeling support system failures, etc.). This paper provides an overview of the methods being used to make the above improvements

  3. Contact dynamics math model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glaese, John R.; Tobbe, Patrick A.

    1986-01-01

    The Space Station Mechanism Test Bed consists of a hydraulically driven, computer controlled six degree of freedom (DOF) motion system with which docking, berthing, and other mechanisms can be evaluated. Measured contact forces and moments are provided to the simulation host computer to enable representation of orbital contact dynamics. This report describes the development of a generalized math model which represents the relative motion between two rigid orbiting vehicles. The model allows motion in six DOF for each body, with no vehicle size limitation. The rotational and translational equations of motion are derived. The method used to transform the forces and moments from the sensor location to the vehicles' centers of mass is also explained. Two math models of docking mechanisms, a simple translational spring and the Remote Manipulator System end effector, are presented along with simulation results. The translational spring model is used in an attempt to verify the simulation with compensated hardware in the loop results.

  4. Incorporation of Markov reliability models for digital instrumentation and control systems into existing PRAs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bucci, P.; Mangan, L. A.; Kirschenbaum, J.; Mandelli, D.; Aldemir, T.; Arndt, S. A.

    2006-01-01

    Markov models have the ability to capture the statistical dependence between failure events that can arise in the presence of complex dynamic interactions between components of digital instrumentation and control systems. One obstacle to the use of such models in an existing probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is that most of the currently available PRA software is based on the static event-tree/fault-tree methodology which often cannot represent such interactions. We present an approach to the integration of Markov reliability models into existing PRAs by describing the Markov model of a digital steam generator feedwater level control system, how dynamic event trees (DETs) can be generated from the model, and how the DETs can be incorporated into an existing PRA with the SAPHIRE software. (authors)

  5. Incorporating model parameter uncertainty into inverse treatment planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lian Jun; Xing Lei

    2004-01-01

    Radiobiological treatment planning depends not only on the accuracy of the models describing the dose-response relation of different tumors and normal tissues but also on the accuracy of tissue specific radiobiological parameters in these models. Whereas the general formalism remains the same, different sets of model parameters lead to different solutions and thus critically determine the final plan. Here we describe an inverse planning formalism with inclusion of model parameter uncertainties. This is made possible by using a statistical analysis-based frameset developed by our group. In this formalism, the uncertainties of model parameters, such as the parameter a that describes tissue-specific effect in the equivalent uniform dose (EUD) model, are expressed by probability density function and are included in the dose optimization process. We found that the final solution strongly depends on distribution functions of the model parameters. Considering that currently available models for computing biological effects of radiation are simplistic, and the clinical data used to derive the models are sparse and of questionable quality, the proposed technique provides us with an effective tool to minimize the effect caused by the uncertainties in a statistical sense. With the incorporation of the uncertainties, the technique has potential for us to maximally utilize the available radiobiology knowledge for better IMRT treatment

  6. A data-driven model for influenza transmission incorporating media effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Lewis; Ross, Joshua V

    2016-10-01

    Numerous studies have attempted to model the effect of mass media on the transmission of diseases such as influenza; however, quantitative data on media engagement has until recently been difficult to obtain. With the recent explosion of 'big data' coming from online social media and the like, large volumes of data on a population's engagement with mass media during an epidemic are becoming available to researchers. In this study, we combine an online dataset comprising millions of shared messages relating to influenza with traditional surveillance data on flu activity to suggest a functional form for the relationship between the two. Using this data, we present a simple deterministic model for influenza dynamics incorporating media effects, and show that such a model helps explain the dynamics of historical influenza outbreaks. Furthermore, through model selection we show that the proposed media function fits historical data better than other media functions proposed in earlier studies.

  7. Incorporation of tritium into planctonic algae in a continuous culture under dynamic conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strack, S.; Kistner, G.; Emeis, C.C.

    1979-01-01

    For the purpose of modelling the ecologic behaviour of organically bound tritium (OBT) in aquatic food chains under dynamic conditions (i.e. by changing tritium concentrations), a continuous culture of algae was chosen to which tritium was added by a single injection as tritiated water (HTO). The culture was working according to the chemostatic principle where the concentration of cells is in a steady state. Therefore, according to the growth of algae, tritium is incorporated into the organic substance, while in a parallel process HTO and algae are eliminated from the system at the same rate. From these two processes of first-order kinetics, a special function resulted for the concentration process of OBT in the fermenter that is well known in the field of drug kinetics. Initially it increases until it reaches a maximum value where it intersects the elimination curve of HTO, then decreases and asymptotically approaches the time axis - in the same manner as the elimination curve - only at a superior level. A comparison of this theoretically calculated function with the concentration actually found shows that also under dynamic conditions tritium is undergoing discrimination because of isotopic effects up to a ratio of I=0.80. The calculation of the ratios R=(OBT)/(HTO) in the continuous culture by comparing the function for OBT with the elimination curve for HTO shows a linear increase of R-values during the experiment. At maximum tritium concentration in the algae, the ratio becomes greater than one, and at the end of the experiment it reaches a value of about 6. However, by extrapolating to a time of 40 half-lives, when the absolute concentration of HTO has already decreased by a factor of 10 -12 , a ratio of about 25 was found. The discrimination enters the estimation of R-values at a constant factor of 0.80. (author)

  8. Dynamic Linear Models with R

    CERN Document Server

    Campagnoli, Patrizia; Petris, Giovanni

    2009-01-01

    State space models have gained tremendous popularity in as disparate fields as engineering, economics, genetics and ecology. Introducing general state space models, this book focuses on dynamic linear models, emphasizing their Bayesian analysis. It illustrates the fundamental steps needed to use dynamic linear models in practice, using R package.

  9. GIS and dynamic phenomena modeling

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Klimešová, Dana

    2006-01-01

    Roč. 4, č. 4 (2006), s. 11-15 ISSN 0139-570X Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : dynamic modelling * temporal analysis * dynamics evaluation * temporal space Subject RIV: BC - Control Systems Theory

  10. Incorporating modelled subglacial hydrology into inversions for basal drag

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. P. Koziol

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available A key challenge in modelling coupled ice-flow–subglacial hydrology is initializing the state and parameters of the system. We address this problem by presenting a workflow for initializing these values at the start of a summer melt season. The workflow depends on running a subglacial hydrology model for the winter season, when the system is not forced by meltwater inputs, and ice velocities can be assumed constant. Key parameters of the winter run of the subglacial hydrology model are determined from an initial inversion for basal drag using a linear sliding law. The state of the subglacial hydrology model at the end of winter is incorporated into an inversion of basal drag using a non-linear sliding law which is a function of water pressure. We demonstrate this procedure in the Russell Glacier area and compare the output of the linear sliding law with two non-linear sliding laws. Additionally, we compare the modelled winter hydrological state to radar observations and find that it is in line with summer rather than winter observations.

  11. Incorporation of fractional-order dynamics into an existing PI/PID DC motor control loop.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tepljakov, Aleksei; Gonzalez, Emmanuel A; Petlenkov, Eduard; Belikov, Juri; Monje, Concepción A; Petráš, Ivo

    2016-01-01

    The problem of changing the dynamics of an existing DC motor control system without the need of making internal changes is considered in the paper. In particular, this paper presents a method for incorporating fractional-order dynamics in an existing DC motor control system with internal PI or PID controller, through the addition of an external controller into the system and by tapping its original input and output signals. Experimental results based on the control of a real test plant from MATLAB/Simulink environment are presented, indicating the validity of the proposed approach. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. An electricity generation planning model incorporating demand response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Dong Gu; Thomas, Valerie M.

    2012-01-01

    Energy policies that aim to reduce carbon emissions and change the mix of electricity generation sources, such as carbon cap-and-trade systems and renewable electricity standards, can affect not only the source of electricity generation, but also the price of electricity and, consequently, demand. We develop an optimization model to determine the lowest cost investment and operation plan for the generating capacity of an electric power system. The model incorporates demand response to price change. In a case study for a U.S. state, we show the price, demand, and generation mix implications of a renewable electricity standard, and of a carbon cap-and-trade policy with and without initial free allocation of carbon allowances. This study shows that both the demand moderating effects and the generation mix changing effects of the policies can be the sources of carbon emissions reductions, and also shows that the share of the sources could differ with different policy designs. The case study provides different results when demand elasticity is excluded, underscoring the importance of incorporating demand response in the evaluation of electricity generation policies. - Highlights: ► We develop an electric power system optimization model including demand elasticity. ► Both renewable electricity and carbon cap-and-trade policies can moderate demand. ► Both policies affect the generation mix, price, and demand for electricity. ► Moderated demand can be a significant source of carbon emission reduction. ► For cap-and-trade policies, initial free allowances change outcomes significantly.

  13. Incorporation of chemical kinetic models into process control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herget, C.J.; Frazer, J.W.

    1981-01-01

    An important consideration in chemical process control is to determine the precise rationing of reactant streams, particularly when a large time delay exists between the mixing of the reactants and the measurement of the product. In this paper, a method is described for incorporating chemical kinetic models into the control strategy in order to achieve optimum operating conditions. The system is first characterized by determining a reaction rate surface as a function of all input reactant concentrations over a feasible range. A nonlinear constrained optimization program is then used to determine the combination of reactants which produces the specified yield at minimum cost. This operating condition is then used to establish the nominal concentrations of the reactants. The actual operation is determined through a feedback control system employing a Smith predictor. The method is demonstrated on a laboratory bench scale enzyme reactor

  14. Modelling dynamic roughness during floods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paarlberg, Andries; Dohmen-Janssen, Catarine M.; Hulscher, Suzanne J.M.H.; Termes, A.P.P.

    2007-01-01

    In this paper, we present a dynamic roughness model to predict water levels during floods. Hysteresis effects of dune development are explicitly included. It is shown that differences between the new dynamic roughness model, and models where the roughness coefficient is calibrated, are most

  15. Fuzzy Logic-Based Model That Incorporates Personality Traits for Heterogeneous Pedestrians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhuxin Xue

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Most models designed to simulate pedestrian dynamical behavior are based on the assumption that human decision-making can be described using precise values. This study proposes a new pedestrian model that incorporates fuzzy logic theory into a multi-agent system to address cognitive behavior that introduces uncertainty and imprecision during decision-making. We present a concept of decision preferences to represent the intrinsic control factors of decision-making. To realize the different decision preferences of heterogeneous pedestrians, the Five-Factor (OCEAN personality model is introduced to model the psychological characteristics of individuals. Then, a fuzzy logic-based approach is adopted for mapping the relationships between the personality traits and the decision preferences. Finally, we have developed an application using our model to simulate pedestrian dynamical behavior in several normal or non-panic scenarios, including a single-exit room, a hallway with obstacles, and a narrowing passage. The effectiveness of the proposed model is validated with a user study. The results show that the proposed model can generate more reasonable and heterogeneous behavior in the simulation and indicate that individual personality has a noticeable effect on pedestrian dynamical behavior.

  16. A nonlinear dynamics approach for incorporating wind-speed patterns into wind-power project evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huffaker, Ray; Bittelli, Marco

    2015-01-01

    Wind-energy production may be expanded beyond regions with high-average wind speeds (such as the Midwest U.S.A.) to sites with lower-average speeds (such as the Southeast U.S.A.) by locating favorable regional matches between natural wind-speed and energy-demand patterns. A critical component of wind-power evaluation is to incorporate wind-speed dynamics reflecting documented diurnal and seasonal behavioral patterns. Conventional probabilistic approaches remove patterns from wind-speed data. These patterns must be restored synthetically before they can be matched with energy-demand patterns. How to accurately restore wind-speed patterns is a vexing problem spurring an expanding line of papers. We propose a paradigm shift in wind power evaluation that employs signal-detection and nonlinear-dynamics techniques to empirically diagnose whether synthetic pattern restoration can be avoided altogether. If the complex behavior of observed wind-speed records is due to nonlinear, low-dimensional, and deterministic system dynamics, then nonlinear dynamics techniques can reconstruct wind-speed dynamics from observed wind-speed data without recourse to conventional probabilistic approaches. In the first study of its kind, we test a nonlinear dynamics approach in an application to Sugarland Wind-the first utility-scale wind project proposed in Florida, USA. We find empirical evidence of a low-dimensional and nonlinear wind-speed attractor characterized by strong temporal patterns that match up well with regular daily and seasonal electricity demand patterns.

  17. Digital terrain model generalization incorporating scale, semantic and cognitive constraints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Partsinevelos, Panagiotis; Papadogiorgaki, Maria

    2014-05-01

    Cartographic generalization is a well-known process accommodating spatial data compression, visualization and comprehension under various scales. In the last few years, there are several international attempts to construct tangible GIS systems, forming real 3D surfaces using a vast number of mechanical parts along a matrix formation (i.e., bars, pistons, vacuums). Usually, moving bars upon a structured grid push a stretching membrane resulting in a smooth visualization for a given surface. Most of these attempts suffer either in their cost, accuracy, resolution and/or speed. Under this perspective, the present study proposes a surface generalization process that incorporates intrinsic constrains of tangible GIS systems including robotic-motor movement and surface stretching limitations. The main objective is to provide optimized visualizations of 3D digital terrain models with minimum loss of information. That is, to minimize the number of pixels in a raster dataset used to define a DTM, while reserving the surface information. This neighborhood type of pixel relations adheres to the basics of Self Organizing Map (SOM) artificial neural networks, which are often used for information abstraction since they are indicative of intrinsic statistical features contained in the input patterns and provide concise and characteristic representations. Nevertheless, SOM remains more like a black box procedure not capable to cope with possible particularities and semantics of the application at hand. E.g. for coastal monitoring applications, the near - coast areas, surrounding mountains and lakes are more important than other features and generalization should be "biased"-stratified to fulfill this requirement. Moreover, according to the application objectives, we extend the SOM algorithm to incorporate special types of information generalization by differentiating the underlying strategy based on topologic information of the objects included in the application. The final

  18. Modelling and Simulation of a Manipulator with Stable Viscoelastic Grasping Incorporating Friction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Khurshid

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Design, dynamics and control of a humanoid robotic hand based on anthropological dimensions, with joint friction, is modelled, simulated and analysed in this paper by using computer aided design and multibody dynamic simulation. Combined joint friction model is incorporated in the joints. Experimental values of coefficient of friction of grease lubricated sliding contacts representative of manipulator joints are presented. Human fingers deform to the shape of the grasped object (enveloping grasp at the area of interaction. A mass-spring-damper model of the grasp is developed. The interaction of the viscoelastic gripper of the arm with objects is analysed by using Bond Graph modelling method. Simulations were conducted for several material parameters. These results of the simulation are then used to develop a prototype of the proposed gripper. Bond graph model is experimentally validated by using the prototype. The gripper is used to successfully transport soft and fragile objects. This paper provides information on optimisation of friction and its inclusion in both dynamic modelling and simulation to enhance mechanical efficiency.

  19. Dynamic mapping of conical intersection seams: A general method for incorporating the geometric phase in adiabatic dynamics in polyatomic systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Changjian; Malbon, Christopher L; Yarkony, David R; Guo, Hua

    2017-07-28

    The incorporation of the geometric phase in single-state adiabatic dynamics near a conical intersection (CI) seam has so far been restricted to molecular systems with high symmetry or simple model Hamiltonians. This is due to the fact that the ab initio determined derivative coupling (DC) in a multi-dimensional space is not curl-free, thus making its line integral path dependent. In a recent work [C. L. Malbon et al., J. Chem. Phys. 145, 234111 (2016)], we proposed a new and general approach based on an ab initio determined diabatic representation consisting of only two electronic states, in which the DC is completely removable, so that its line integral is path independent in the simply connected domains that exclude the CI seam. Then with the CIs included, the line integral of the single-valued DC can be used to construct the complex geometry-dependent phase needed to exactly eliminate the double-valued character of the real-valued adiabatic electronic wavefunction. This geometry-dependent phase gives rise to a vector potential which, when included in the adiabatic representation, rigorously accounts for the geometric phase in a system with an arbitrary locus of the CI seam and an arbitrary number of internal coordinates. In this work, we demonstrate this approach in a three-dimensional treatment of the tunneling facilitated dissociation of the S 1 state of phenol, which is affected by a C s symmetry allowed but otherwise accidental seam of CI. Here, since the space is three-dimensional rather than two-dimensional, the seam is a curve rather than a point. The nodal structure of the ground state vibronic wavefunction is shown to map out the seam of CI.

  20. Dislocation climb models from atomistic scheme to dislocation dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Niu, Xiaohua; Luo, Tao; Lu, Jianfeng; Xiang, Yang

    2016-01-01

    We develop a mesoscopic dislocation dynamics model for vacancy-assisted dislocation climb by upscalings from a stochastic model on the atomistic scale. Our models incorporate microscopic mechanisms of (i) bulk diffusion of vacancies, (ii) vacancy exchange dynamics between bulk and dislocation core, (iii) vacancy pipe diffusion along the dislocation core, and (iv) vacancy attachment-detachment kinetics at jogs leading to the motion of jogs. Our mesoscopic model consists of the vacancy bulk dif...

  1. Hybrid dynamics for currency modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Theodosopoulos, Ted; Trifunovic, Alex

    2006-01-01

    We present a simple hybrid dynamical model as a tool to investigate behavioral strategies based on trend following. The multiplicative symbolic dynamics are generated using a lognormal diffusion model for the at-the-money implied volatility term structure. Thus, are model exploits information from derivative markets to obtain qualititative properties of the return distribution for the underlier. We apply our model to the JPY-USD exchange rate and the corresponding 1mo., 3mo., 6mo. and 1yr. im...

  2. Conceptual Design Optimization of an Augmented Stability Aircraft Incorporating Dynamic Response and Actuator Constraints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welstead, Jason; Crouse, Gilbert L., Jr.

    2014-01-01

    Empirical sizing guidelines such as tail volume coefficients have long been used in the early aircraft design phases for sizing stabilizers, resulting in conservatively stable aircraft. While successful, this results in increased empty weight, reduced performance, and greater procurement and operational cost relative to an aircraft with optimally sized surfaces. Including flight dynamics in the conceptual design process allows the design to move away from empirical methods while implementing modern control techniques. A challenge of flight dynamics and control is the numerous design variables, which are changing fluidly throughout the conceptual design process, required to evaluate the system response to some disturbance. This research focuses on addressing that challenge not by implementing higher order tools, such as computational fluid dynamics, but instead by linking the lower order tools typically used within the conceptual design process so each discipline feeds into the other. In thisresearch, flight dynamics and control was incorporated into the conceptual design process along with the traditional disciplines of vehicle sizing, weight estimation, aerodynamics, and performance. For the controller, a linear quadratic regulator structure with constant gains has been specified to reduce the user input. Coupling all the disciplines in the conceptual design phase allows the aircraft designer to explore larger design spaces where stabilizers are sized according to dynamic response constraints rather than historical static margin and volume coefficient guidelines.

  3. Model for Volatile Incorporation into Soils and Dust on Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, B. C.; Yen, A.

    2006-12-01

    Martian soils with high content of compounds of sulfur and chlorine are ubiquitous on Mars, having been found at all five landing sites. Sulfate and chloride salts are implicated by a variety of evidence, but few conclusive specific identifications have been made. Discovery of jarosite and Mg-Ca sulfates in outcrops at Meridiani Planum (MER mission) and regional-scale beds of kieserite and gypsum (Mars Express mission) notwithstanding, the sulfates in soils are uncertain. Chlorides or other Cl-containing minerals have not been uniquely identified directly by any method. Viking and Pathfinder missions found trends in the elemental analytical data consistent with MgSO4, but Viking results are biased by duricrust samples and Pathfinder by soil contamination of rock surfaces. The Mars Exploration Rovers (MER) missions have taken extensive data on soils with no confirmation of trends implicating any particular cation. In our model of martian dust and soil, the S and Cl are initially incorporated by condensation or chemisorption on grains directly from gas phase molecules in the atmosphere. It is shown by modeling that the coatings thus formed cannot quantitatively explain the apparent elemental composition of these materials, and therefore involve the migration of ions and formation of microscopic weathering rinds. Original cation inventories of unweathered particles are isochemically conserved. Exposed rock surfaces should also have micro rinds, depending upon the length of time of exposure. Martian soils may therefore have unusual chemical properties when interacting with aqueous layers or infused fluids. Potential ramifications to the quantitative accuracy of x-ray fluorescence and Moessbauer spectroscopy on unprocessed samples are also assessed.

  4. Dynamic Intellectual Capital Model in a Company

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir Shatrevich

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to indicate the relations between company’s value added (VA and intangible assets. Authors declare that Intellectual capital (IC is one of the most relevant intangibles for a company, and the concept with measurement, and the relation with value creation is necessary for modern markets. Since relationship between IC elements and VA are complicated, this paper is aimed to create a usable dynamic model for building company’s value added through intellectual capital. The model is incorporating that outputs from IC elements are not homogeneously received and made some contributions to dynamic nature of IC relation and VA. Variables that will help companies to evaluate contribution of each element of IC are added to the model. This paper emphasizes the importance of a company’s IC and the positive interaction between them in generating profits for company.

  5. Computer Modelling of Dynamic Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Rybakin

    2000-10-01

    Full Text Available Results of numerical modeling of dynamic problems are summed in the article up. These problems are characteristic for various areas of human activity, in particular for problem solving in ecology. The following problems are considered in the present work: computer modeling of dynamic effects on elastic-plastic bodies, calculation and determination of performances of gas streams in gas cleaning equipment, modeling of biogas formation processes.

  6. Modelling biased human trust dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoogendoorn, M.; Jaffry, S.W.; Maanen, P.P. van; Treur, J.

    2013-01-01

    Abstract. Within human trust related behaviour, according to the literature from the domains of Psychology and Social Sciences often non-rational behaviour can be observed. Current trust models that have been developed typically do not incorporate non-rational elements in the trust formation

  7. Structural dynamic modifications via models

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The study shows that as many as half of the matrix ... the dynamicist's analytical modelling skill which would appear both in the numerator as. Figure 2. ..... Brandon J A 1990 Strategies for structural dynamic modification (New York: John Wiley).

  8. Dynamic programming models and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Denardo, Eric V

    2003-01-01

    Introduction to sequential decision processes covers use of dynamic programming in studying models of resource allocation, methods for approximating solutions of control problems in continuous time, production control, more. 1982 edition.

  9. CFTSIM-ITER dynamic fuel cycle model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Busigin, A.; Gierszewski, P.

    1998-01-01

    Dynamic system models have been developed for specific tritium systems with considerable detail and for integrated fuel cycles with lesser detail (e.g. D. Holland, B. Merrill, Analysis of tritium migration and deposition in fusion reactor systems, Proceedings of the Ninth Symposium Eng. Problems of Fusion Research (1981); M.A. Abdou, E. Vold, C. Gung, M. Youssef, K. Shin, DT fuel self-sufficiency in fusion reactors, Fusion Technol. (1986); G. Spannagel, P. Gierszewski, Dynamic tritium inventory of a NET/ITER fuel cycle with lithium salt solution blanket, Fusion Eng. Des. (1991); W. Kuan, M.A. Abdou, R.S. Willms, Dynamic simulation of a proposed ITER tritium processing system, Fusion Technol. (1995)). In order to provide a tool to understand and optimize the behavior of the ITER fuel cycle, a dynamic fuel cycle model called CFTSIM is under development. The CFTSIM code incorporates more detailed ITER models, specifically for the important isotope separation system, and also has an easier-to-use graphical interface. This paper provides an overview of CFTSIM Version 1.0. The models included are those with significant and varying tritium inventories over a test campaign: fueling, plasma and first wall, pumping, fuel cleanup, isotope separation and storage. An illustration of the results is shown. (orig.)

  10. Dynamical models of the Galaxy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    McMillan P.J.

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available I discuss the importance of dynamical models for exploiting survey data, focusing on the advantages of “torus” models. I summarize a number of applications of these models to the study of the Milky Way, including the determination of the peculiar Solar velocity and investigation of the Hyades moving group.

  11. Development of Dynamic Environmental Effect Calculation Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, Chang Joon; Ko, Won Il

    2010-01-01

    The short-term, long-term decay heat, and radioactivity are considered as main environmental parameters of SF and HLA. In this study, the dynamic calculation models for radioactivity, short-term decay heat, and long-term heat load of the SF are developed and incorporated into the Doneness code. The spent fuel accumulation has become a major issue for sustainable operation of nuclear power plants. If a once-through fuel cycle is selected, the SF will be disposed into the repository. Otherwise, in case of fast reactor or reuse cycle, the SF will be reprocessed and the high level waste will be disposed

  12. Models of microbiome evolution incorporating host and microbial selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Qinglong; Wu, Steven; Sukumaran, Jeet; Rodrigo, Allen

    2017-09-25

    Numerous empirical studies suggest that hosts and microbes exert reciprocal selective effects on their ecological partners. Nonetheless, we still lack an explicit framework to model the dynamics of both hosts and microbes under selection. In a previous study, we developed an agent-based forward-time computational framework to simulate the neutral evolution of host-associated microbial communities in a constant-sized, unstructured population of hosts. These neutral models allowed offspring to sample microbes randomly from parents and/or from the environment. Additionally, the environmental pool of available microbes was constituted by fixed and persistent microbial OTUs and by contributions from host individuals in the preceding generation. In this paper, we extend our neutral models to allow selection to operate on both hosts and microbes. We do this by constructing a phenome for each microbial OTU consisting of a sample of traits that influence host and microbial fitnesses independently. Microbial traits can influence the fitness of hosts ("host selection") and the fitness of microbes ("trait-mediated microbial selection"). Additionally, the fitness effects of traits on microbes can be modified by their hosts ("host-mediated microbial selection"). We simulate the effects of these three types of selection, individually or in combination, on microbiome diversities and the fitnesses of hosts and microbes over several thousand generations of hosts. We show that microbiome diversity is strongly influenced by selection acting on microbes. Selection acting on hosts only influences microbiome diversity when there is near-complete direct or indirect parental contribution to the microbiomes of offspring. Unsurprisingly, microbial fitness increases under microbial selection. Interestingly, when host selection operates, host fitness only increases under two conditions: (1) when there is a strong parental contribution to microbial communities or (2) in the absence of a strong

  13. Energy system investment model incorporating heat pumps with thermal storage in buildings and buffer tanks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hedegaard, Karsten; Balyk, Olexandr

    2013-01-01

    Individual compression heat pumps constitute a potentially valuable resource in supporting wind power integration due to their economic competitiveness and possibilities for flexible operation. When analysing the system benefits of flexible heat pump operation, effects on investments should...... be taken into account. In this study, we present a model that facilitates analysing individual heat pumps and complementing heat storages in integration with the energy system, while optimising both investments and operation. The model incorporates thermal building dynamics and covers various heat storage...... of operating heat pumps flexibly. This includes prioritising heat pump operation for hours with low marginal electricity production costs, and peak load shaving resulting in a reduced need for peak and reserve capacity investments....

  14. Modelling dune evolution and dynamic roughness in rivers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paarlberg, Andries

    2008-01-01

    Accurate river flow models are essential tools for water managers, but these hydraulic simulation models often lack a proper description of dynamic roughness due to hysteresis effects in dune evolution. To incorporate the effects of dune evolution directly into the resistance coefficients of

  15. Static and Dynamic Mechanical Properties of Graphene Oxide-Incorporated Woven Carbon Fiber/Epoxy Composite

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adak, Nitai Chandra; Chhetri, Suman; Kim, Nam Hoon; Murmu, Naresh Chandra; Samanta, Pranab; Kuila, Tapas

    2018-03-01

    This study investigates the synergistic effects of graphene oxide (GO) on the woven carbon fiber (CF)-reinforced epoxy composites. The GO nanofiller was incorporated into the epoxy resin with variations in the content, and the CF/epoxy composites were manufactured using a vacuum-assisted resin transfer molding process and then cured at 70 and 120 °C. An analysis of the mechanical properties of the GO (0.2 wt.%)/CF/epoxy composites showed an improvement in the tensile strength, Young's modulus, toughness, flexural strength and flexural modulus by 34, 20, 83, 55 and 31%, respectively, when compared to the CF/epoxy composite. The dynamic mechanical analysis of the composites exhibited an enhancement of 56, 114 and 22% in the storage modulus, loss modulus and damping capacity (tan δ), respectively, at its glass transition temperature. The fiber-matrix interaction was studied using a Cole-Cole plot analysis.

  16. Modeling Propellant Tank Dynamics

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The main objective of my work will be to develop accurate models of self-pressurizing propellant tanks for use in designing hybrid rockets. The first key goal is to...

  17. Modelling group dynamic animal movement

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Langrock, Roland; Hopcraft, J. Grant C.; Blackwell, Paul G.

    2014-01-01

    makes its movement decisions relative to the group centroid. The basic idea is framed within the flexible class of hidden Markov models, extending previous work on modelling animal movement by means of multi-state random walks. While in simulation experiments parameter estimators exhibit some bias......, to date, practical statistical methods which can include group dynamics in animal movement models have been lacking. We consider a flexible modelling framework that distinguishes a group-level model, describing the movement of the group's centre, and an individual-level model, such that each individual......Group dynamic movement is a fundamental aspect of many species' movements. The need to adequately model individuals' interactions with other group members has been recognised, particularly in order to differentiate the role of social forces in individual movement from environmental factors. However...

  18. Modeling Internet Topology Dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haddadi, H.; Uhlig, S.; Moore, A.; Mortier, R.; Rio, M.

    Despite the large number of papers on network topology modeling and inference, there still exists ambiguity about the real nature of the Internet AS and router level topology. While recent findings have illustrated the inaccuracies in maps inferred from BGP peering and traceroute measurements,

  19. Generative Models of Conformational Dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Langmead, Christopher James

    2014-01-01

    Atomistic simulations of the conformational dynamics of proteins can be performed using either Molecular Dynamics or Monte Carlo procedures. The ensembles of three-dimensional structures produced during simulation can be analyzed in a number of ways to elucidate the thermodynamic and kinetic properties of the system. The goal of this chapter is to review both traditional and emerging methods for learning generative models from atomistic simulation data. Here, the term ‘generative’ refers to a...

  20. Incorporating Semantic Knowledge into Dynamic Data Processing for Smart Power Grids

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou, Qunzhi; Simmhan, Yogesh; Prasanna, Viktor

    2012-11-15

    Semantic Web allows us to model and query time-invariant or slowly evolving knowledge using ontologies. Emerging applications in Cyber Physical Systems such as Smart Power Grids that require continuous information monitoring and integration present novel opportunities and challenges for Semantic Web technologies. Semantic Web is promising to model diverse Smart Grid domain knowledge for enhanced situation awareness and response by multi-disciplinary participants. However, current technology does pose a performance overhead for dynamic analysis of sensor measurements. In this paper, we combine semantic web and complex event processing for stream based semantic querying. We illustrate its adoption in the USC Campus Micro-Grid for detecting and enacting dynamic response strategies to peak power situations by diverse user roles. We also describe the semantic ontology and event query model that supports this. Further, we introduce and evaluate caching techniques to improve the response time for semantic event queries to meet our application needs and enable sustainable energy management.

  1. A Non-Isothermal Chemical Lattice Boltzmann Model Incorporating Thermal Reaction Kinetics and Enthalpy Changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stuart Bartlett

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The lattice Boltzmann method is an efficient computational fluid dynamics technique that can accurately model a broad range of complex systems. As well as single-phase fluids, it can simulate thermohydrodynamic systems and passive scalar advection. In recent years, it also gained attention as a means of simulating chemical phenomena, as interest in self-organization processes increased. This paper will present a widely-used and versatile lattice Boltzmann model that can simultaneously incorporate fluid dynamics, heat transfer, buoyancy-driven convection, passive scalar advection, chemical reactions and enthalpy changes. All of these effects interact in a physically accurate framework that is simple to code and readily parallelizable. As well as a complete description of the model equations, several example systems will be presented in order to demonstrate the accuracy and versatility of the method. New simulations, which analyzed the effect of a reversible reaction on the transport properties of a convecting fluid, will also be described in detail. This extra chemical degree of freedom was utilized by the system to augment its net heat flux. The numerical method outlined in this paper can be readily deployed for a vast range of complex flow problems, spanning a variety of scientific disciplines.

  2. ITER Dynamic Tritium Inventory Modeling Code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cristescu, Ioana-R.; Doerr, L.; Busigin, A.; Murdoch, D.

    2005-01-01

    A tool for tritium inventory evaluation within each sub-system of the Fuel Cycle of ITER is vital, with respect to both the process of licensing ITER and also for operation. It is very likely that measurements of total tritium inventories may not be possible for all sub-systems, however tritium accounting may be achieved by modeling its hold-up within each sub-system and by validating these models in real-time against the monitored flows and tritium streams between the systems. To get reliable results, an accurate dynamic modeling of the tritium content in each sub-system is necessary. In order to optimize the configuration and operation of the ITER fuel cycle, a dynamic fuel cycle model was developed progressively in the decade up to 2000-2001. As the design for some sub-systems from the fuel cycle (i.e. Vacuum pumping, Neutral Beam Injectors (NBI)) have substantially progressed meanwhile, a new code developed under a different platform to incorporate these modifications has been developed. The new code is taking over the models and algorithms for some subsystems, such as Isotope Separation System (ISS); where simplified models have been previously considered, more detailed have been introduced, as for the Water Detritiation System (WDS). To reflect all these changes, the new code developed inside EU participating team was nominated TRIMO (Tritium Inventory Modeling), to emphasize the use of the code on assessing the tritium inventory within ITER

  3. Vehicle dynamics modeling and simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Schramm, Dieter; Bardini, Roberto

    2014-01-01

    The authors examine in detail the fundamentals and mathematical descriptions of the dynamics of automobiles. In this context different levels of complexity will be presented, starting with basic single-track models up to complex three-dimensional multi-body models. A particular focus is on the process of establishing mathematical models on the basis of real cars and the validation of simulation results. The methods presented are explained in detail by means of selected application scenarios.

  4. Containing Terrorism: A Dynamic Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giti Zahedzadeh

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The strategic interplay between counterterror measures and terror activity is complex. Herein, we propose a dynamic model to depict this interaction. The model generates stylized prognoses: (i under conditions of inefficient counterterror measures, terror groups enjoy longer period of activity but only if recruitment into terror groups remains low; high recruitment shortens the period of terror activity (ii highly efficient counterterror measures effectively contain terror activity, but only if recruitment remains low. Thus, highly efficient counterterror measures can effectively contain terrorism if recruitment remains restrained. We conclude that the trajectory of the dynamics between counterterror measures and terror activity is heavily altered by recruitment.

  5. MRI study of hydrophilic xanthan tablets with incorporated model drug

    OpenAIRE

    Mikac, Urša; Baumgartner, Saša; Sepe, Ana; Kristl, Julijana

    2015-01-01

    Magnetic resonance imaging was used to study swelling dynamics and hydrogel formation of xanthan tablets with or without Pentoxifylline drug in water and HCl pH 1.2 media at two different ionic strengths. Significant changes were observed only in the erosion front positions leading to different hydrogel thicknesses. The impact of the drug on the hydrogel thickness was found to be dependent on the medium conditions at high enough drug amount. The drug does not change the hydrogel thickness ...

  6. 75 FR 20265 - Airworthiness Directives; Liberty Aerospace Incorporated Model XL-2 Airplanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-19

    ... Office, 1701 Columbia Avenue, College Park, Georgia 30337; telephone: (404) 474-5524; facsimile: (404... Airworthiness Directives; Liberty Aerospace Incorporated Model XL-2 Airplanes AGENCY: Federal Aviation...-08- 05, which applies to certain Liberty Aerospace Incorporated Model XL-2 airplanes. AD 2009-08-05...

  7. Loss given default models incorporating macroeconomic variables for credit cards

    OpenAIRE

    Crook, J.; Bellotti, T.

    2012-01-01

    Based on UK data for major retail credit cards, we build several models of Loss Given Default based on account level data, including Tobit, a decision tree model, a Beta and fractional logit transformation. We find that Ordinary Least Squares models with macroeconomic variables perform best for forecasting Loss Given Default at the account and portfolio levels on independent hold-out data sets. The inclusion of macroeconomic conditions in the model is important, since it provides a means to m...

  8. Energy system investment model incorporating heat pumps with thermal storage in buildings and buffer tanks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hedegaard, Karsten; Balyk, Olexandr

    2013-01-01

    Individual compression heat pumps constitute a potentially valuable resource in supporting wind power integration due to their economic competitiveness and possibilities for flexible operation. When analysing the system benefits of flexible heat pump operation, effects on investments should be taken into account. In this study, we present a model that facilitates analysing individual heat pumps and complementing heat storages in integration with the energy system, while optimising both investments and operation. The model incorporates thermal building dynamics and covers various heat storage options: passive heat storage in the building structure via radiator heating, active heat storage in concrete floors via floor heating, and use of thermal storage tanks for space heating and hot water. It is shown that the model is well qualified for analysing possibilities and system benefits of operating heat pumps flexibly. This includes prioritising heat pump operation for hours with low marginal electricity production costs, and peak load shaving resulting in a reduced need for peak and reserve capacity investments. - Highlights: • Model optimising heat pumps and heat storages in integration with the energy system. • Optimisation of both energy system investments and operation. • Heat storage in building structure and thermal storage tanks included. • Model well qualified for analysing system benefits of flexible heat pump operation. • Covers peak load shaving and operation prioritised for low electricity prices

  9. Generative Models of Conformational Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langmead, Christopher James

    2014-01-01

    Atomistic simulations of the conformational dynamics of proteins can be performed using either Molecular Dynamics or Monte Carlo procedures. The ensembles of three-dimensional structures produced during simulation can be analyzed in a number of ways to elucidate the thermodynamic and kinetic properties of the system. The goal of this chapter is to review both traditional and emerging methods for learning generative models from atomistic simulation data. Here, the term ‘generative’ refers to a model of the joint probability distribution over the behaviors of the constituent atoms. In the context of molecular modeling, generative models reveal the correlation structure between the atoms, and may be used to predict how the system will respond to structural perturbations. We begin by discussing traditional methods, which produce multivariate Gaussian models. We then discuss GAMELAN (GrAphical Models of Energy LANdscapes), which produces generative models of complex, non-Gaussian conformational dynamics (e.g., allostery, binding, folding, etc) from long timescale simulation data. PMID:24446358

  10. Rich dynamics of a food chain model with ratio-dependent type III ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    prey dynamics is to incorporate discrete delay into the predator equations. ... models may be found in classical books of Gopalsamy (1992), Macdonald (1989) .... Model (1) has 10 parameters in all, which make mathematical analysis complex.

  11. Experimental Modeling of Dynamic Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Morten Haack

    2006-01-01

    An engineering course, Simulation and Experimental Modeling, has been developed that is based on a method for direct estimation of physical parameters in dynamic systems. Compared with classical system identification, the method appears to be easier to understand, apply, and combine with physical...

  12. Incorporating time-delays in S-System model for reverse engineering genetic networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowdhury, Ahsan Raja; Chetty, Madhu; Vinh, Nguyen Xuan

    2013-06-18

    In any gene regulatory network (GRN), the complex interactions occurring amongst transcription factors and target genes can be either instantaneous or time-delayed. However, many existing modeling approaches currently applied for inferring GRNs are unable to represent both these interactions simultaneously. As a result, all these approaches cannot detect important interactions of the other type. S-System model, a differential equation based approach which has been increasingly applied for modeling GRNs, also suffers from this limitation. In fact, all S-System based existing modeling approaches have been designed to capture only instantaneous interactions, and are unable to infer time-delayed interactions. In this paper, we propose a novel Time-Delayed S-System (TDSS) model which uses a set of delay differential equations to represent the system dynamics. The ability to incorporate time-delay parameters in the proposed S-System model enables simultaneous modeling of both instantaneous and time-delayed interactions. Furthermore, the delay parameters are not limited to just positive integer values (corresponding to time stamps in the data), but can also take fractional values. Moreover, we also propose a new criterion for model evaluation exploiting the sparse and scale-free nature of GRNs to effectively narrow down the search space, which not only reduces the computation time significantly but also improves model accuracy. The evaluation criterion systematically adapts the max-min in-degrees and also systematically balances the effect of network accuracy and complexity during optimization. The four well-known performance measures applied to the experimental studies on synthetic networks with various time-delayed regulations clearly demonstrate that the proposed method can capture both instantaneous and delayed interactions correctly with high precision. The experiments carried out on two well-known real-life networks, namely IRMA and SOS DNA repair network in

  13. Incorporating Contagion in Portfolio Credit Risk Models Using Network Theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anagnostou, I.; Sourabh, S.; Kandhai, D.

    2018-01-01

    Portfolio credit risk models estimate the range of potential losses due to defaults or deteriorations in credit quality. Most of these models perceive default correlation as fully captured by the dependence on a set of common underlying risk factors. In light of empirical evidence, the ability of

  14. Organic production in a dynamic CGE model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, Lars Bo

    2004-01-01

    for conventional production into land for organic production, a period of two years must pass before the land being transformed can be used for organic production. During that time, the land is counted as land of the organic industry, but it can only produce the conventional product. To handle this rule, we make......Concerns about the impact of modern agriculture on the environment have in recent years led to an interest in supporting the development of organic farming. In addition to environmental benefits, the aim is to encourage the provision of other “multifunctional” properties of organic farming...... such as rural amenities and rural development that are spillover benefit additional to the supply of food. In this paper we further develop an existing dynamic general equilibrium model of the Danish economy to specifically incorporate organic farming. In the model and input-output data each primary...

  15. Incorporating measurement error in n = 1 psychological autoregressive modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuurman, Noémi K.; Houtveen, Jan H.; Hamaker, Ellen L.

    2015-01-01

    Measurement error is omnipresent in psychological data. However, the vast majority of applications of autoregressive time series analyses in psychology do not take measurement error into account. Disregarding measurement error when it is present in the data results in a bias of the autoregressive parameters. We discuss two models that take measurement error into account: An autoregressive model with a white noise term (AR+WN), and an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model. In a simulation study we compare the parameter recovery performance of these models, and compare this performance for both a Bayesian and frequentist approach. We find that overall, the AR+WN model performs better. Furthermore, we find that for realistic (i.e., small) sample sizes, psychological research would benefit from a Bayesian approach in fitting these models. Finally, we illustrate the effect of disregarding measurement error in an AR(1) model by means of an empirical application on mood data in women. We find that, depending on the person, approximately 30–50% of the total variance was due to measurement error, and that disregarding this measurement error results in a substantial underestimation of the autoregressive parameters. PMID:26283988

  16. A statistical model for aggregating judgments by incorporating peer predictions

    OpenAIRE

    McCoy, John; Prelec, Drazen

    2017-01-01

    We propose a probabilistic model to aggregate the answers of respondents answering multiple-choice questions. The model does not assume that everyone has access to the same information, and so does not assume that the consensus answer is correct. Instead, it infers the most probable world state, even if only a minority vote for it. Each respondent is modeled as receiving a signal contingent on the actual world state, and as using this signal to both determine their own answer and predict the ...

  17. Markov modulated Poisson process models incorporating covariates for rainfall intensity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thayakaran, R; Ramesh, N I

    2013-01-01

    Time series of rainfall bucket tip times at the Beaufort Park station, Bracknell, in the UK are modelled by a class of Markov modulated Poisson processes (MMPP) which may be thought of as a generalization of the Poisson process. Our main focus in this paper is to investigate the effects of including covariate information into the MMPP model framework on statistical properties. In particular, we look at three types of time-varying covariates namely temperature, sea level pressure, and relative humidity that are thought to be affecting the rainfall arrival process. Maximum likelihood estimation is used to obtain the parameter estimates, and likelihood ratio tests are employed in model comparison. Simulated data from the fitted model are used to make statistical inferences about the accumulated rainfall in the discrete time interval. Variability of the daily Poisson arrival rates is studied.

  18. Incorporating Responsiveness to Marketing Efforts in Brand Choice Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dennis Fok

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available We put forward a brand choice model with unobserved heterogeneity that concerns responsiveness to marketing efforts. We introduce two latent segments of households. The first segment is assumed to respond to marketing efforts, while households in the second segment do not do so. Whether a specific household is a member of the first or the second segment at a specific purchase occasion is described by household-specific characteristics and characteristics concerning buying behavior. Households may switch between the two responsiveness states over time. When comparing the performance of our model with alternative choice models that account for various forms of heterogeneity for three different datasets, we find better face validity for our parameters. Our model also forecasts better.

  19. Modeling returns volatility: Realized GARCH incorporating realized risk measure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Wei; Ruan, Qingsong; Li, Jianfeng; Li, Ye

    2018-06-01

    This study applies realized GARCH models by introducing several risk measures of intraday returns into the measurement equation, to model the daily volatility of E-mini S&P 500 index futures returns. Besides using the conventional realized measures, realized volatility and realized kernel as our benchmarks, we also use generalized realized risk measures, realized absolute deviation, and two realized tail risk measures, realized value-at-risk and realized expected shortfall. The empirical results show that realized GARCH models using the generalized realized risk measures provide better volatility estimation for the in-sample and substantial improvement in volatility forecasting for the out-of-sample. In particular, the realized expected shortfall performs best for all of the alternative realized measures. Our empirical results reveal that future volatility may be more attributable to present losses (risk measures). The results are robust to different sample estimation windows.

  20. Incorporating pushing in exclusion-process models of cell migration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yates, Christian A; Parker, Andrew; Baker, Ruth E

    2015-05-01

    The macroscale movement behavior of a wide range of isolated migrating cells has been well characterized experimentally. Recently, attention has turned to understanding the behavior of cells in crowded environments. In such scenarios it is possible for cells to interact, inducing neighboring cells to move in order to make room for their own movements or progeny. Although the behavior of interacting cells has been modeled extensively through volume-exclusion processes, few models, thus far, have explicitly accounted for the ability of cells to actively displace each other in order to create space for themselves. In this work we consider both on- and off-lattice volume-exclusion position-jump processes in which cells are explicitly allowed to induce movements in their near neighbors in order to create space for themselves to move or proliferate into. We refer to this behavior as pushing. From these simple individual-level representations we derive continuum partial differential equations for the average occupancy of the domain. We find that, for limited amounts of pushing, comparison between the averaged individual-level simulations and the population-level model is nearly as good as in the scenario without pushing. Interestingly, we find that, in the on-lattice case, the diffusion coefficient of the population-level model is increased by pushing, whereas, for the particular off-lattice model that we investigate, the diffusion coefficient is reduced. We conclude, therefore, that it is important to consider carefully the appropriate individual-level model to use when representing complex cell-cell interactions such as pushing.

  1. Incorporating spiritual beliefs into a cognitive model of worry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosmarin, David H; Pirutinsky, Steven; Auerbach, Randy P; Björgvinsson, Thröstur; Bigda-Peyton, Joseph; Andersson, Gerhard; Pargament, Kenneth I; Krumrei, Elizabeth J

    2011-07-01

    Cognitive theory and research have traditionally highlighted the relevance of the core beliefs about oneself, the world, and the future to human emotions. For some individuals, however, core beliefs may also explicitly involve spiritual themes. In this article, we propose a cognitive model of worry, in which positive/negative beliefs about the Divine affect symptoms through the mechanism of intolerance of uncertainty. Using mediation analyses, we found support for our model across two studies, in particular, with regards to negative spiritual beliefs. These findings highlight the importance of assessing for spiritual alongside secular convictions when creating cognitive-behavioral case formulations in the treatment of religious individuals. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  2. Modelling toluene oxidation : Incorporation of mass transfer phenomena

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoorn, J.A.A.; van Soolingen, J.; Versteeg, G. F.

    The kinetics of the oxidation of toluene have been studied in close interaction with the gas-liquid mass transfer occurring in the reactor. Kinetic parameters for a simple model have been estimated on basis of experimental observations performed under industrial conditions. The conclusions for the

  3. Incorporating pion effects into the naive quark model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nogami, Y.; Ohtuska, N.

    1982-01-01

    A hybrid of the naive nonrelativistic quark model and the Chew-Low model is proposed. The pion is treated as an elementary particle which interacts with the ''bare baryon'' or ''baryon core'' via the Chew-Low interaction. The baryon core, which is the source of the pion interaction, is described by the naive nonrelativistic quark model. It turns out that the baryon-core radius has to be as large as 0.8 fm, and consequently the cutoff momentum Λ for the pion interaction is < or approx. =3m/sub π/, m/sub π/ being the pion mass. Because of this small Λ (as compared with Λapprox. nucleon mass in the old Chew-Low model) the effects of the pion cloud are strongly suppressed. The baryon masses, baryon magnetic moments, and the nucleon charge radii can be reproduced quite well. However, we found it singularly difficult to fit the axial-vector weak decay constant g/sub A/

  4. Do Knowledge-Component Models Need to Incorporate Representational Competencies?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rau, Martina Angela

    2017-01-01

    Traditional knowledge-component models describe students' content knowledge (e.g., their ability to carry out problem-solving procedures or their ability to reason about a concept). In many STEM domains, instruction uses multiple visual representations such as graphs, figures, and diagrams. The use of visual representations implies a…

  5. Making Invasion models useful for decision makers; incorporating uncertainty, knowledge gaps, and decision-making preferences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denys Yemshanov; Frank H Koch; Mark Ducey

    2015-01-01

    Uncertainty is inherent in model-based forecasts of ecological invasions. In this chapter, we explore how the perceptions of that uncertainty can be incorporated into the pest risk assessment process. Uncertainty changes a decision maker’s perceptions of risk; therefore, the direct incorporation of uncertainty may provide a more appropriate depiction of risk. Our...

  6. Business model dynamics and innovation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cavalcante, Sergio Andre; Kesting, Peter; Ulhøi, John Parm

    2011-01-01

    the impact of specific changes to a firm's business model. Such a tool would be particularly useful in identifying path dependencies and resistance at the process level, and would therefore allow a firm's management to take focused action on this in advance. Originality/value – The paper makes two main...... and specifies four different types of business model change: business model creation, extension, revision, and termination. Each type of business model change is associated with specific challenges. Practical implications – The proposed typology can serve as a basis for developing a management tool to evaluate......Purpose – This paper aims to discuss the need to dynamize the existing conceptualization of business model, and proposes a new typology to distinguish different types of business model change. Design/methodology/approach – The paper integrates basic insights of innovation, business process...

  7. On whole Abelian model dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chauca, J.; Doria, R. [CBPF, Rio de Janeiro (Brazil); Aprendanet, Petropolis, 25600 (Brazil)

    2012-09-24

    Physics challenge is to determine the objects dynamics. However, there are two ways for deciphering the part. The first one is to search for the ultimate constituents; the second one is to understand its behaviour in whole terms. Therefore, the parts can be defined either from elementary constituents or as whole functions. Historically, science has been moving through the first aspect, however, quarks confinement and complexity are interrupting this usual approach. These relevant facts are supporting for a systemic vision be introduced. Our effort here is to study on the whole meaning through gauge theory. Consider a systemic dynamics oriented through the U(1) - systemic gauge parameter which function is to collect a fields set {l_brace}A{sub {mu}I}{r_brace}. Derive the corresponding whole gauge invariant Lagrangian, equations of motion, Bianchi identities, Noether relationships, charges and Ward-Takahashi equations. Whole Lorentz force and BRST symmetry are also studied. These expressions bring new interpretations further than the usual abelian model. They are generating a systemic system governed by 2N+ 10 classical equations plus Ward-Takahashi identities. A whole dynamics based on the notions of directive and circumstance is producing a set determinism where the parts dynamics are inserted in the whole evolution. A dynamics based on state, collective and individual equations with a systemic interdependence.

  8. Workforce scheduling: A new model incorporating human factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammed Othman

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The majority of a company’s improvement comes when the right workers with the right skills, behaviors and capacities are deployed appropriately throughout a company. This paper considers a workforce scheduling model including human aspects such as skills, training, workers’ personalities, workers’ breaks and workers’ fatigue and recovery levels. This model helps to minimize the hiring, firing, training and overtime costs, minimize the number of fired workers with high performance, minimize the break time and minimize the average worker’s fatigue level.Design/methodology/approach: To achieve this objective, a multi objective mixed integer programming model is developed to determine the amount of hiring, firing, training and overtime for each worker type.Findings: The results indicate that the worker differences should be considered in workforce scheduling to generate realistic plans with minimum costs. This paper also investigates the effects of human fatigue and recovery on the performance of the production systems.Research limitations/implications: In this research, there are some assumptions that might affect the accuracy of the model such as the assumption of certainty of the demand in each period, and the linearity function of Fatigue accumulation and recovery curves. These assumptions can be relaxed in future work.Originality/value: In this research, a new model for integrating workers’ differences with workforce scheduling is proposed. To the authors' knowledge, it is the first time to study the effects of different important human factors such as human personality, skills and fatigue and recovery in the workforce scheduling process. This research shows that considering both technical and human factors together can reduce the costs in manufacturing systems and ensure the safety of the workers.

  9. Incorporating grassland management in a global vegetation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Jinfeng; Viovy, Nicolas; Vuichard, Nicolas; Ciais, Philippe; Wang, Tao; Cozic, Anne; Lardy, Romain; Graux, Anne-Isabelle; Klumpp, Katja; Martin, Raphael; Soussana, Jean-François

    2013-04-01

    Grassland is a widespread vegetation type, covering nearly one-fifth of the world's land surface (24 million km2), and playing a significant role in the global carbon (C) cycle. Most of grasslands in Europe are cultivated to feed animals, either directly by grazing or indirectly by grass harvest (cutting). A better understanding of the C fluxes from grassland ecosystems in response to climate and management requires not only field experiments but also the aid of simulation models. ORCHIDEE process-based ecosystem model designed for large-scale applications treats grasslands as being unmanaged, where C / water fluxes are only subject to atmospheric CO2 and climate changes. Our study describes how management of grasslands is included in the ORCHIDEE, and how management affects modeled grassland-atmosphere CO2 fluxes. The new model, ORCHIDEE-GM (Grassland Management) is capable with a management module inspired from a grassland model (PaSim, version 5.0), of accounting for two grassland management practices (cutting and grazing). The evaluation of the results of ORCHIDEE-GM compared with those of ORCHIDEE at 11 European sites equipped with eddy covariance and biometric measurements, show that ORCHIDEE-GM can capture realistically the cut-induced seasonal variation in biometric variables (LAI: Leaf Area Index; AGB: Aboveground Biomass) and in CO2 fluxes (GPP: Gross Primary Productivity; TER: Total Ecosystem Respiration; and NEE: Net Ecosystem Exchange). But improvements at grazing sites are only marginal in ORCHIDEE-GM, which relates to the difficulty in accounting for continuous grazing disturbance and its induced complex animal-vegetation interactions. Both NEE and GPP on monthly to annual timescales can be better simulated in ORCHIDEE-GM than in ORCHIDEE without management. At some sites, the model-observation misfit in ORCHIDEE-GM is found to be more related to ill-constrained parameter values than to model structure. Additionally, ORCHIDEE-GM is able to simulate

  10. Relating structure and dynamics in organisation models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonkers, C.M.; Treur, J.

    2002-01-01

    To understand how an organisational structure relates to dynamics is an interesting fundamental challenge in the area of social modelling. Specifications of organisational structure usually have a diagrammatic form that abstracts from more detailed dynamics. Dynamic properties of agent systems,

  11. Modelling MIZ dynamics in a global model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rynders, Stefanie; Aksenov, Yevgeny; Feltham, Daniel; Nurser, George; Naveira Garabato, Alberto

    2016-04-01

    Exposure of large, previously ice-covered areas of the Arctic Ocean to the wind and surface ocean waves results in the Arctic pack ice cover becoming more fragmented and mobile, with large regions of ice cover evolving into the Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ). The need for better climate predictions, along with growing economic activity in the Polar Oceans, necessitates climate and forecasting models that can simulate fragmented sea ice with a greater fidelity. Current models are not fully fit for the purpose, since they neither model surface ocean waves in the MIZ, nor account for the effect of floe fragmentation on drag, nor include sea ice rheology that represents both the now thinner pack ice and MIZ ice dynamics. All these processes affect the momentum transfer to the ocean. We present initial results from a global ocean model NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) coupled to the Los Alamos sea ice model CICE. The model setup implements a novel rheological formulation for sea ice dynamics, accounting for ice floe collisions, thus offering a seamless framework for pack ice and MIZ simulations. The effect of surface waves on ice motion is included through wave pressure and the turbulent kinetic energy of ice floes. In the multidecadal model integrations we examine MIZ and basin scale sea ice and oceanic responses to the changes in ice dynamics. We analyse model sensitivities and attribute them to key sea ice and ocean dynamical mechanisms. The results suggest that the effect of the new ice rheology is confined to the MIZ. However with the current increase in summer MIZ area, which is projected to continue and may become the dominant type of sea ice in the Arctic, we argue that the effects of the combined sea ice rheology will be noticeable in large areas of the Arctic Ocean, affecting sea ice and ocean. With this study we assert that to make more accurate sea ice predictions in the changing Arctic, models need to include MIZ dynamics and physics.

  12. Incorporating Satellite Time-Series Data into Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregg, Watson

    2008-01-01

    In situ time series observations have provided a multi-decadal view of long-term changes in ocean biology. These observations are sufficiently reliable to enable discernment of even relatively small changes, and provide continuous information on a host of variables. Their key drawback is their limited domain. Satellite observations from ocean color sensors do not suffer the drawback of domain, and simultaneously view the global oceans. This attribute lends credence to their use in global and regional model validation and data assimilation. We focus on these applications using the NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model. The enhancement of the satellite data using data assimilation is featured and the limitation of tongterm satellite data sets is also discussed.

  13. Incorporating Contagion in Portfolio Credit Risk Models Using Network Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ioannis Anagnostou

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Portfolio credit risk models estimate the range of potential losses due to defaults or deteriorations in credit quality. Most of these models perceive default correlation as fully captured by the dependence on a set of common underlying risk factors. In light of empirical evidence, the ability of such a conditional independence framework to accommodate for the occasional default clustering has been questioned repeatedly. Thus, financial institutions have relied on stressed correlations or alternative copulas with more extreme tail dependence. In this paper, we propose a different remedy—augmenting systematic risk factors with a contagious default mechanism which affects the entire universe of credits. We construct credit stress propagation networks and calibrate contagion parameters for infectious defaults. The resulting framework is implemented on synthetic test portfolios wherein the contagion effect is shown to have a significant impact on the tails of the loss distributions.

  14. Incorporation of intraocular scattering in schematic eye models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Navarro, R.

    1985-01-01

    Beckmann's theory of scattering from rough surfaces is applied to obtain, from the experimental veiling glare functions, a diffuser that when placed at the pupil plane would produce the same scattering halo as the ocular media. This equivalent diffuser is introduced in a schematic eye model, and its influence on the point-spread function and the modulation-transfer function of the eye is analyzed

  15. Constitutive modeling of coronary artery bypass graft with incorporated torsion

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Horný, L.; Chlup, Hynek; Žitný, R.; Adámek, T.

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 49, č. 2 (2009), s. 273-277 ISSN 0543-5846 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA106/08/0557 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z20760514 Keywords : coronary artery bypass graft * constitutive model * digital image correlation Subject RIV: BJ - Thermodynamics Impact factor: 0.439, year: 2009 http://web.tuke.sk/sjf-kamam/mmams2009/contents.pdf

  16. Stirling Engine Dynamic System Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakis, Christopher G.

    2004-01-01

    The Thermo-Mechanical systems branch at the Glenn Research Center focuses a large amount time on Stirling engines. These engines will be used on missions where solar power is inefficient, especially in deep space. I work with Tim Regan and Ed Lewandowski who are currently developing and validating a mathematical model for the Stirling engines. This model incorporates all aspects of the system including, mechanical, electrical and thermodynamic components. Modeling is done through Simplorer, a program capable of running simulations of the model. Once created and then proven to be accurate, a model is used for developing new ideas for engine design. My largest specific project involves varying key parameters in the model and quantifying the results. This can all be done relatively trouble-free with the help of Simplorer. Once the model is complete, Simplorer will do all the necessary calculations. The more complicated part of this project is determining which parameters to vary. Finding key parameters depends on the potential for a value to be independently altered in the design. For example, a change in one dimension may lead to a proportional change to the rest of the model, and no real progress is made. Also, the ability for a changed value to have a substantial impact on the outputs of the system is important. Results will be condensed into graphs and tables with the purpose of better communication and understanding of the data. With the changing of these parameters, a more optimal design can be created without having to purchase or build any models. Also, hours and hours of results can be simulated in minutes. In the long run, using mathematical models can save time and money. Along with this project, I have many other smaller assignments throughout the summer. My main goal is to assist in the processes of model development, validation and testing.

  17. Social Dynamics Modeling and Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-03-29

    the experiment(s)/ theory and equipment or analyses. Development of innovative theoretical model and methodologies with experimental verifications...information. The methodology based on communication and information theory (thanks to leave at MIT supported by this research) is described in [J1], [C2...a dynamic system [C1] and as a social learning mechanism in details [J4]. Furthermore, by incentive seeding and rewiring connections, information

  18. Design Protocols and Analytical Strategies that Incorporate Structural Reliability Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duffy, Stephen F.

    1997-01-01

    Ceramic matrix composites (CMC) and intermetallic materials (e.g., single crystal nickel aluminide) are high performance materials that exhibit attractive mechanical, thermal and chemical properties. These materials are critically important in advancing certain performance aspects of gas turbine engines. From an aerospace engineer's perspective the new generation of ceramic composites and intermetallics offers a significant potential for raising the thrust/weight ratio and reducing NO(x) emissions of gas turbine engines. These aspects have increased interest in utilizing these materials in the hot sections of turbine engines. However, as these materials evolve and their performance characteristics improve a persistent need exists for state-of-the-art analytical methods that predict the response of components fabricated from CMC and intermetallic material systems. This need provided the motivation for the technology developed under this research effort. Continuous ceramic fiber composites exhibit an increase in work of fracture, which allows for "graceful" rather than catastrophic failure. When loaded in the fiber direction, these composites retain substantial strength capacity beyond the initiation of transverse matrix cracking despite the fact that neither of its constituents would exhibit such behavior if tested alone. As additional load is applied beyond first matrix cracking, the matrix tends to break in a series of cracks bridged by the ceramic fibers. Any additional load is born increasingly by the fibers until the ultimate strength of the composite is reached. Thus modeling efforts supported under this research effort have focused on predicting this sort of behavior. For single crystal intermetallics the issues that motivated the technology development involved questions relating to material behavior and component design. Thus the research effort supported by this grant had to determine the statistical nature and source of fracture in a high strength, Ni

  19. Constraining Distributed Catchment Models by Incorporating Perceptual Understanding of Spatial Hydrologic Behaviour

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutton, Christopher; Wagener, Thorsten; Freer, Jim; Han, Dawei

    2016-04-01

    Distributed models offer the potential to resolve catchment systems in more detail, and therefore simulate the hydrological impacts of spatial changes in catchment forcing (e.g. landscape change). Such models tend to contain a large number of poorly defined and spatially varying model parameters which are therefore computationally expensive to calibrate. Insufficient data can result in model parameter and structural equifinality, particularly when calibration is reliant on catchment outlet discharge behaviour alone. Evaluating spatial patterns of internal hydrological behaviour has the potential to reveal simulations that, whilst consistent with measured outlet discharge, are qualitatively dissimilar to our perceptual understanding of how the system should behave. We argue that such understanding, which may be derived from stakeholder knowledge across different catchments for certain process dynamics, is a valuable source of information to help reject non-behavioural models, and therefore identify feasible model structures and parameters. The challenge, however, is to convert different sources of often qualitative and/or semi-qualitative information into robust quantitative constraints of model states and fluxes, and combine these sources of information together to reject models within an efficient calibration framework. Here we present the development of a framework to incorporate different sources of data to efficiently calibrate distributed catchment models. For each source of information, an interval or inequality is used to define the behaviour of the catchment system. These intervals are then combined to produce a hyper-volume in state space, which is used to identify behavioural models. We apply the methodology to calibrate the Penn State Integrated Hydrological Model (PIHM) at the Wye catchment, Plynlimon, UK. Outlet discharge behaviour is successfully simulated when perceptual understanding of relative groundwater levels between lowland peat, upland peat

  20. A dynamic model of the greenhouse effect and its control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perman, R.; Nisbet, R.; Ma, Y.

    1991-01-01

    A dynamic model is developed for the analysis of programmes to control the greenhouse effect. The model uses simplified representations of physical processes determining climate change, linked to an economic model of emissions and emissions abatement. Feedbacks between physical and economic processes are incorporated, and the costs of emissions reduction are compared with the benefits through averted damage. Simulation analyses explore the relative merits of several intervention scenarios, each of which is compared with non intervention. Throughout the paper, emphasis is placed upon the long term consequences of behaviour, and the patterns of dynamic adjustment over time. (author)

  1. Incorporation particle creation and annihilation into Bohm's Pilot Wave model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sverdlov, Roman [Raman Research Institute, C.V. Raman Avenue, Sadashiva Nagar, Bangalore, Karnataka, 560080 (India)

    2011-07-08

    The purpose of this paper is to come up with a Pilot Wave model of quantum field theory that incorporates particle creation and annihilation without sacrificing determinism; this theory is subsequently coupled with gravity.

  2. INCORPORATION OF MECHANISTIC INFORMATION IN THE ARSENIC PBPK MODEL DEVELOPMENT PROCESS

    Science.gov (United States)

    INCORPORATING MECHANISTIC INSIGHTS IN A PBPK MODEL FOR ARSENICElaina M. Kenyon, Michael F. Hughes, Marina V. Evans, David J. Thomas, U.S. EPA; Miroslav Styblo, University of North Carolina; Michael Easterling, Analytical Sciences, Inc.A physiologically based phar...

  3. Unified inelastic constitutive equations incorporating dynamic strain aging for Mod. 9Cr-1Mo steel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yaguchi, Masatsugu; Takahashi, Yukio

    1998-01-01

    A unified constitutive model considering dynamic strain aging effect was developed in order to describe inelastic deformation behavior of the Mod. 9Cr-1Mo steel precisely. The inelastic behavior of the steel was summarized as follows. A rate dependent deformation was observed above 500degC, and there was no rate dependency under 400degC. However, stress relaxation behavior was observed even at rate independent temperature region. Further, a stress after relaxation depended on prior loading strain rate, and it showed a higher value as the strain rate was slow. A feature of the proposed constitutive model was that an applied stress consists of three stress components: a back stress, an overstress and an aging stress which corresponds to dynamics strain aging and shows a negative strain rate dependency. The aging stress was measured by strain rate change tests, and it showed larger values as the strain rates were slow and the temperatures were low. The backstress and the overstress were measured by strain dip tests. The backstress was approximately rate independent under 400degC, however it showed rate dependency above 500degC. The overstress showed larger values as the strain rates were fast and the temperatures were high. The material constants were determined systematically based on the measured values of each internal variable. In order to evaluate the validity of the constitutive model, numerical simulations were done for various inelastic deformation behavior of Mod. 9Cr-1Mo steel. The simulations agreed with experimental results very well in all cases. (author)

  4. High-Strain Rate Failure Modeling Incorporating Shear Banding and Fracture

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-11-22

    High Strain Rate Failure Modeling Incorporating Shear Banding and Fracture The views, opinions and/or findings contained in this report are those of...SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 1. REPORT DATE (DD-MM-YYYY) 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 12. DISTRIBUTION AVAILIBILITY STATEMENT 6. AUTHORS...Report as of 05-Dec-2017 Agreement Number: W911NF-13-1-0238 Organization: Columbia University Title: High Strain Rate Failure Modeling Incorporating

  5. Exploring the isotopic niche: isotopic variance, physiological incorporation, and the temporal dynamics of foraging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Justin Douglas Yeakel

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Consumer foraging behaviors are dynamic, changing in response to prey availability, seasonality, competition, and even the consumer's physiological state. The isotopic composition of a consumer is a product of these factors as well as the isotopic `landscape' of its prey, i.e. the isotopic mixing space. Stable isotope mixing models are used to back-calculate the most likely proportional contribution of a set of prey to a consumer's diet based on their respective isotopic distributions, however they are disconnected from ecological process. Here we build a mechanistic framework that links the ecological and physiological processes of an individual consumer to the isotopic distribution that describes its diet, and ultimately to the isotopic composition of its own tissues, defined as its `isotopic niche’. By coupling these processes, we systematically investigate under what conditions the isotopic niche of a consumer changes as a function of both the geometric properties of its mixing space and foraging strategies that may be static or dynamic over time. Results of our derivations reveal general insight into the conditions impacting isotopic niche width as a function of consumer specialization on prey, as well as the consumer's ability to transition between diets over time. We show analytically that moderate specialization on isotopically unique prey can serve to maximize a consumer's isotopic niche width, while temporally dynamic diets will tend to result in peak isotopic variance during dietary transitions. We demonstrate the relevance of our theoretical findings by examining a marine system composed of nine invertebrate species commonly consumed by sea otters. In general, our analytical framework highlights the complex interplay of mixing space geometry and consumer dietary behavior in driving expansion and contraction of the isotopic niche. Because this approach is established on ecological mechanism, it is well-suited for enhancing the

  6. Incorporating the life course model into MCH nutrition leadership education and training programs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haughton, Betsy; Eppig, Kristen; Looney, Shannon M; Cunningham-Sabo, Leslie; Spear, Bonnie A; Spence, Marsha; Stang, Jamie S

    2013-01-01

    Life course perspective, social determinants of health, and health equity have been combined into one comprehensive model, the life course model (LCM), for strategic planning by US Health Resources and Services Administration's Maternal and Child Health Bureau. The purpose of this project was to describe a faculty development process; identify strategies for incorporation of the LCM into nutrition leadership education and training at the graduate and professional levels; and suggest broader implications for training, research, and practice. Nineteen representatives from 6 MCHB-funded nutrition leadership education and training programs and 10 federal partners participated in a one-day session that began with an overview of the models and concluded with guided small group discussions on how to incorporate them into maternal and child health (MCH) leadership training using obesity as an example. Written notes from group discussions were compiled and coded emergently. Content analysis determined the most salient themes about incorporating the models into training. Four major LCM-related themes emerged, three of which were about training: (1) incorporation by training grants through LCM-framed coursework and experiences for trainees, and similarly framed continuing education and skills development for professionals; (2) incorporation through collaboration with other training programs and state and community partners, and through advocacy; and (3) incorporation by others at the federal and local levels through policy, political, and prevention efforts. The fourth theme focused on anticipated challenges of incorporating the model in training. Multiple methods for incorporating the LCM into MCH training and practice are warranted. Challenges to incorporating include the need for research and related policy development.

  7. Computational fluid dynamics modelling in cardiovascular medicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, Paul D; Narracott, Andrew; von Tengg-Kobligk, Hendrik; Silva Soto, Daniel Alejandro; Hsiao, Sarah; Lungu, Angela; Evans, Paul; Bressloff, Neil W; Lawford, Patricia V; Hose, D Rodney; Gunn, Julian P

    2016-01-01

    This paper reviews the methods, benefits and challenges associated with the adoption and translation of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modelling within cardiovascular medicine. CFD, a specialist area of mathematics and a branch of fluid mechanics, is used routinely in a diverse range of safety-critical engineering systems, which increasingly is being applied to the cardiovascular system. By facilitating rapid, economical, low-risk prototyping, CFD modelling has already revolutionised research and development of devices such as stents, valve prostheses, and ventricular assist devices. Combined with cardiovascular imaging, CFD simulation enables detailed characterisation of complex physiological pressure and flow fields and the computation of metrics which cannot be directly measured, for example, wall shear stress. CFD models are now being translated into clinical tools for physicians to use across the spectrum of coronary, valvular, congenital, myocardial and peripheral vascular diseases. CFD modelling is apposite for minimally-invasive patient assessment. Patient-specific (incorporating data unique to the individual) and multi-scale (combining models of different length- and time-scales) modelling enables individualised risk prediction and virtual treatment planning. This represents a significant departure from traditional dependence upon registry-based, population-averaged data. Model integration is progressively moving towards 'digital patient' or 'virtual physiological human' representations. When combined with population-scale numerical models, these models have the potential to reduce the cost, time and risk associated with clinical trials. The adoption of CFD modelling signals a new era in cardiovascular medicine. While potentially highly beneficial, a number of academic and commercial groups are addressing the associated methodological, regulatory, education- and service-related challenges. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission

  8. Multiscale modeling of pedestrian dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Cristiani, Emiliano; Tosin, Andrea

    2014-01-01

    This book presents mathematical models and numerical simulations of crowd dynamics. The core topic is the development of a new multiscale paradigm, which bridges the microscopic and macroscopic scales taking the most from each of them for capturing the relevant clues of complexity of crowds. The background idea is indeed that most of the complex trends exhibited by crowds are due to an intrinsic interplay between individual and collective behaviors. The modeling approach promoted in this book pursues actively this intuition and profits from it for designing general mathematical structures susceptible of application also in fields different from the inspiring original one. The book considers also the two most traditional points of view: the microscopic one, in which pedestrians are tracked individually, and the macroscopic one, in which pedestrians are assimilated to a continuum. Selected existing models are critically analyzed. The work is addressed to researchers and graduate students.

  9. Modelling, simulation and applications of longitudinal train dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Colin; Spiryagin, Maksym; Wu, Qing; Sun, Yan Quan

    2017-10-01

    Significant developments in longitudinal train simulation and an overview of the approaches to train models and modelling vehicle force inputs are firstly presented. The most important modelling task, that of the wagon connection, consisting of energy absorption devices such as draft gears and buffers, draw gear stiffness, coupler slack and structural stiffness is then presented. Detailed attention is given to the modelling approaches for friction wedge damped and polymer draft gears. A significant issue in longitudinal train dynamics is the modelling and calculation of the input forces - the co-dimensional problem. The need to push traction performances higher has led to research and improvement in the accuracy of traction modelling which is discussed. A co-simulation method that combines longitudinal train simulation, locomotive traction control and locomotive vehicle dynamics is presented. The modelling of other forces, braking propulsion resistance, curve drag and grade forces are also discussed. As extensions to conventional longitudinal train dynamics, lateral forces and coupler impacts are examined in regards to interaction with wagon lateral and vertical dynamics. Various applications of longitudinal train dynamics are then presented. As an alternative to the tradition single wagon mass approach to longitudinal train dynamics, an example incorporating fully detailed wagon dynamics is presented for a crash analysis problem. Further applications of starting traction, air braking, distributed power, energy analysis and tippler operation are also presented.

  10. Developing Baltic cod recruitment models II : Incorporation of environmental variability and species interaction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Köster, Fritz; Hinrichsen, H.H.; St. John, Michael

    2001-01-01

    We investigate whether a process-oriented approach based on the results of field, laboratory, and modelling studies can be used to develop a stock-environment-recruitment model for Central Baltic cod (Gadus morhua). Based on exploratory statistical analysis, significant variables influencing...... cod in these areas, suggesting that key biotic and abiotic processes can be successfully incorporated into recruitment models....... survival of early life stages and varying systematically among spawning sites were incorporated into stock-recruitment models, first for major cod spawning sites and then combined for the entire Central Baltic. Variables identified included potential egg production by the spawning stock, abiotic conditions...

  11. Characterizing and Modeling Citation Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eom, Young-Ho; Fortunato, Santo

    2011-01-01

    Citation distributions are crucial for the analysis and modeling of the activity of scientists. We investigated bibliometric data of papers published in journals of the American Physical Society, searching for the type of function which best describes the observed citation distributions. We used the goodness of fit with Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistics for three classes of functions: log-normal, simple power law and shifted power law. The shifted power law turns out to be the most reliable hypothesis for all citation networks we derived, which correspond to different time spans. We find that citation dynamics is characterized by bursts, usually occurring within a few years since publication of a paper, and the burst size spans several orders of magnitude. We also investigated the microscopic mechanisms for the evolution of citation networks, by proposing a linear preferential attachment with time dependent initial attractiveness. The model successfully reproduces the empirical citation distributions and accounts for the presence of citation bursts as well. PMID:21966387

  12. MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR RIVERBOAT DYNAMICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksander Grm

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Present work describes a simple dynamical model for riverboat motion based on the square drag law. Air and water interactions with the boat are determined from aerodynamic coefficients. CFX simulations were performed with fully developed turbulent flow to determine boat aerodynamic coefficients for an arbitrary angle of attack for the air and water portions separately. The effect of wave resistance is negligible compared to other forces. Boat movement analysis considers only two-dimensional motion, therefore only six aerodynamics coefficients are required. The proposed model is solved and used to determine the critical environmental parameters (wind and current under which river navigation can be conducted safely. Boat simulator was tested in a single area on the Ljubljanica river and estimated critical wind velocity.

  13. CoDCon Dynamic Modeling.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cipiti, Benjamin B. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-03-01

    The Co-Decontamination (CoDCon) Demonstration project is designed to test the separation of a mixed U and Pu product from dissolved spent nuclear fuel. The primary purpose of the project is to quantify the accuracy and precision to which a U/Pu mass ratio can be achieved without removing a pure Pu product. The system includes an on-line monitoring system using spectroscopy to monitor the ratios throughout the process. A dynamic model of the CoDCon flowsheet and on-line monitoring system was developed in order to expand the range of scenarios that can be examined for process control and determine overall measurement uncertainty. The model development and initial results are presented here.

  14. Modeling the dynamics of choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baum, William M; Davison, Michael

    2009-06-01

    A simple linear-operator model both describes and predicts the dynamics of choice that may underlie the matching relation. We measured inter-food choice within components of a schedule that presented seven different pairs of concurrent variable-interval schedules for 12 food deliveries each with no signals indicating which pair was in force. This measure of local choice was accurately described and predicted as obtained reinforcer sequences shifted it to favor one alternative or the other. The effect of a changeover delay was reflected in one parameter, the asymptote, whereas the effect of a difference in overall rate of food delivery was reflected in the other parameter, rate of approach to the asymptote. The model takes choice as a primary dependent variable, not derived by comparison between alternatives-an approach that agrees with the molar view of behaviour.

  15. Dynamical modeling of tidal streams

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bovy, Jo

    2014-01-01

    I present a new framework for modeling the dynamics of tidal streams. The framework consists of simple models for the initial action-angle distribution of tidal debris, which can be straightforwardly evolved forward in time. Taking advantage of the essentially one-dimensional nature of tidal streams, the transformation to position-velocity coordinates can be linearized and interpolated near a small number of points along the stream, thus allowing for efficient computations of a stream's properties in observable quantities. I illustrate how to calculate the stream's average location (its 'track') in different coordinate systems, how to quickly estimate the dispersion around its track, and how to draw mock stream data. As a generative model, this framework allows one to compute the full probability distribution function and marginalize over or condition it on certain phase-space dimensions as well as convolve it with observational uncertainties. This will be instrumental in proper data analysis of stream data. In addition to providing a computationally efficient practical tool for modeling the dynamics of tidal streams, the action-angle nature of the framework helps elucidate how the observed width of the stream relates to the velocity dispersion or mass of the progenitor, and how the progenitors of 'orphan' streams could be located. The practical usefulness of the proposed framework crucially depends on the ability to calculate action-angle variables for any orbit in any gravitational potential. A novel method for calculating actions, frequencies, and angles in any static potential using a single orbit integration is described in the Appendix.

  16. Antisymmetrized molecular dynamics of wave packets with stochastic incorporation of Vlasov equation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ono, Akira; Horiuchi, Hisashi.

    1996-01-01

    The first purpose of this report is to present an extended AMD model which can generally describe such minor branching processes by removing the restriction on the one-body distribution function. This is done not by generalizing the wave packets to arbitrary single-particle wave functions but by representing the diffused and/or deformed wave packet as an ensemble of Gaussian wave packets. In other words, stochastic displacements are given to the wave packets in phase space so that the ensemble-average of the time evolution of the one-body distribution function is essentially equivalent to the solution of Vlasov equation which does not have any restriction on the shape of wave packets. This new model is called AMD-V. Although AMD-V is equivalent to Vlasov equation in the instantaneous time evolution of the one-body distribution function for an AMD wave function, AMD-V describes the branching into channels and the fluctuation of the mean field which are caused by the spreading or the splitting of the single-particle wave function. The second purpose of this report is to show the drastic effect of this new stochastic process of wave packet splitting on the dynamics of heavy ion collisions, especially in the fragmentation mechanism. We take the 40 Ca + 40 Ca system at the incident energy 35 MeV/nucleon. It will be shown that the reproduction of data by the AMD-V calculation is surprisingly good. We will see that the effect of the wave packet diffusion is crucially important to remove the spurious binary feature of the AMD calculation and to enable the multi-fragment final state. (J.P.N.)

  17. System Dynamics Modelling for a Balanced Scorecard

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Steen; Nielsen, Erland Hejn

    2008-01-01

    /methodology/approach - We use a case study model to develop time or dynamic dimensions by using a System Dynamics modelling (SDM) approach. The model includes five perspectives and a number of financial and non-financial measures. All indicators are defined and related to a coherent number of different cause...... have a major influence on other indicators and profit and may be impossible to predict without using a dynamic model. Practical implications - The model may be used as the first step in quantifying the cause-and-effect relationships of an integrated BSC model. Using the System Dynamics model provides......Purpose - To construct a dynamic model/framework inspired by a case study based on an international company. As described by the theory, one of the main difficulties of BSC is to foresee the time lag dimension of different types of indicators and their combined dynamic effects. Design...

  18. Incorporation of the capillary hysteresis model HYSTR into the numerical code TOUGH

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niemi, A.; Bodvarsson, G.S.; Pruess, K.

    1991-11-01

    As part of the work performed to model flow in the unsaturated zone at Yucca Mountain Nevada, a capillary hysteresis model has been developed. The computer program HYSTR has been developed to compute the hysteretic capillary pressure -- liquid saturation relationship through interpolation of tabulated data. The code can be easily incorporated into any numerical unsaturated flow simulator. A complete description of HYSTR, including a brief summary of the previous hysteresis literature, detailed description of the program, and instructions for its incorporation into a numerical simulator are given in the HYSTR user's manual (Niemi and Bodvarsson, 1991a). This report describes the incorporation of HYSTR into the numerical code TOUGH (Transport of Unsaturated Groundwater and Heat; Pruess, 1986). The changes made and procedures for the use of TOUGH for hysteresis modeling are documented

  19. Hpm of Estrogen Model on the Dynamics of Breast Cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Govindarajan, A.; Balamuralitharan, S.; Sundaresan, T.

    2018-04-01

    We enhance a deterministic mathematical model involving universal dynamics on breast cancer with immune response. This is population model so includes Normal cells class, Tumor cells, Immune cells and Estrogen. The eects regarding Estrogen are below incorporated in the model. The effects show to that amount the arrival of greater Estrogen increases the danger over growing breast cancer. Furthermore, approximate solution regarding nonlinear differential equations is arrived by Homotopy Perturbation Method (HPM). Hes HPM is good and correct technique after solve nonlinear differential equation directly. Approximate solution learnt with the support of that method is suitable same as like the actual results in accordance with this models.

  20. Integrating microbial diversity in soil carbon dynamic models parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louis, Benjamin; Menasseri-Aubry, Safya; Leterme, Philippe; Maron, Pierre-Alain; Viaud, Valérie

    2015-04-01

    Faced with the numerous concerns about soil carbon dynamic, a large quantity of carbon dynamic models has been developed during the last century. These models are mainly in the form of deterministic compartment models with carbon fluxes between compartments represented by ordinary differential equations. Nowadays, lots of them consider the microbial biomass as a compartment of the soil organic matter (carbon quantity). But the amount of microbial carbon is rarely used in the differential equations of the models as a limiting factor. Additionally, microbial diversity and community composition are mostly missing, although last advances in soil microbial analytical methods during the two past decades have shown that these characteristics play also a significant role in soil carbon dynamic. As soil microorganisms are essential drivers of soil carbon dynamic, the question about explicitly integrating their role have become a key issue in soil carbon dynamic models development. Some interesting attempts can be found and are dominated by the incorporation of several compartments of different groups of microbial biomass in terms of functional traits and/or biogeochemical compositions to integrate microbial diversity. However, these models are basically heuristic models in the sense that they are used to test hypotheses through simulations. They have rarely been confronted to real data and thus cannot be used to predict realistic situations. The objective of this work was to empirically integrate microbial diversity in a simple model of carbon dynamic through statistical modelling of the model parameters. This work is based on available experimental results coming from a French National Research Agency program called DIMIMOS. Briefly, 13C-labelled wheat residue has been incorporated into soils with different pedological characteristics and land use history. Then, the soils have been incubated during 104 days and labelled and non-labelled CO2 fluxes have been measured at ten

  1. Dynamic process model of a plutonium oxalate precipitator. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miller, C.L.; Hammelman, J.E.; Borgonovi, G.M.

    1977-11-01

    In support of LLL material safeguards program, a dynamic process model was developed which simulates the performance of a plutonium (IV) oxalate precipitator. The plutonium oxalate precipitator is a component in the plutonium oxalate process for making plutonium oxide powder from plutonium nitrate. The model is based on state-of-the-art crystallization descriptive equations, the parameters of which are quantified through the use of batch experimental data. The dynamic model predicts performance very similar to general Hanford oxalate process experience. The utilization of such a process model in an actual plant operation could promote both process control and material safeguards control by serving as a baseline predictor which could give early warning of process upsets or material diversion. The model has been incorporated into a FORTRAN computer program and is also compatible with the DYNSYS 2 computer code which is being used at LLL for process modeling efforts.

  2. Dynamic process model of a plutonium oxalate precipitator. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, C.L.; Hammelman, J.E.; Borgonovi, G.M.

    1977-11-01

    In support of LLL material safeguards program, a dynamic process model was developed which simulates the performance of a plutonium (IV) oxalate precipitator. The plutonium oxalate precipitator is a component in the plutonium oxalate process for making plutonium oxide powder from plutonium nitrate. The model is based on state-of-the-art crystallization descriptive equations, the parameters of which are quantified through the use of batch experimental data. The dynamic model predicts performance very similar to general Hanford oxalate process experience. The utilization of such a process model in an actual plant operation could promote both process control and material safeguards control by serving as a baseline predictor which could give early warning of process upsets or material diversion. The model has been incorporated into a FORTRAN computer program and is also compatible with the DYNSYS 2 computer code which is being used at LLL for process modeling efforts

  3. Review of various dynamic modeling methods and development of an intuitive modeling method for dynamic systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shin, Seung Ki; Seong, Poong Hyun

    2008-01-01

    Conventional static reliability analysis methods are inadequate for modeling dynamic interactions between components of a system. Various techniques such as dynamic fault tree, dynamic Bayesian networks, and dynamic reliability block diagrams have been proposed for modeling dynamic systems based on improvement of the conventional modeling methods. In this paper, we review these methods briefly and introduce dynamic nodes to the existing Reliability Graph with General Gates (RGGG) as an intuitive modeling method to model dynamic systems. For a quantitative analysis, we use a discrete-time method to convert an RGGG to an equivalent Bayesian network and develop a software tool for generation of probability tables

  4. Torsional Dynamics of Steerable Needles: Modeling and Fluoroscopic Guidance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swensen, John P.; Lin, MingDe; Okamura, Allison M.; Cowan, Noah J.

    2017-01-01

    Needle insertions underlie a diversity of medical interventions. Steerable needles provide a means by which to enhance existing needle-based interventions and facilitate new ones. Tip-steerable needles follow a curved path and can be steered by twisting the needle base during insertion, but this twisting excites torsional dynamics that introduce a discrepancy between the base and tip twist angles. Here, we model the torsional dynamics of a flexible rod—such as a tip-steerable needle—during subsurface insertion and develop a new controller based on the model. The torsional model incorporates time-varying mode shapes to capture the changing boundary conditions inherent during insertion. Numerical simulations and physical experiments using two distinct setups—stereo camera feedback in semi-transparent artificial tissue and feedback control with real-time X-ray imaging in optically opaque artificial tissue— demonstrate the need to account for torsional dynamics in control of the needle tip. PMID:24860026

  5. Simulation of Forest Carbon Fluxes Using Model Incorporation and Data Assimilation

    OpenAIRE

    Min Yan; Xin Tian; Zengyuan Li; Erxue Chen; Xufeng Wang; Zongtao Han; Hong Sun

    2016-01-01

    This study improved simulation of forest carbon fluxes in the Changbai Mountains with a process-based model (Biome-BGC) using incorporation and data assimilation. Firstly, the original remote sensing-based MODIS MOD_17 GPP (MOD_17) model was optimized using refined input data and biome-specific parameters. The key ecophysiological parameters of the Biome-BGC model were determined through the Extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (EFAST) sensitivity analysis. Then the optimized MOD_17 mo...

  6. CFD modeling of the IRIS pressurizer dynamic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanz, Ronny R.; Montesinos, Maria E.; Garcia, Carlos; Bueno, Elizabeth D.; Mazaira, Leorlen R.; Bezerra, Jair L.; Lira, Carlos A.B. Oliveira

    2015-01-01

    Integral layout of nuclear reactor IRIS makes possible the elimination of the spray system, which is usually used to mitigate in-surge transient and also help to Boron homogenization. The study of transients with deficiencies in the Boron homogenization in this technology is very important, because they can cause disturbances in the reactor power and insert a strong reactivity in the core. The detailed knowledge of the behavior of multiphase multicomponent flows is challenging due to the complex phenomena and interactions at the interface. In this context, the CFD modeling is employed in the design of equipment in the nuclear industry as it allows predicting accidents or predicting their performance in dissimilar applications. The aim of the present research is to model the IRIS pressurizer's dynamic using the commercial CFD code CFX. A symmetric tri dimensional model equivalent to 1/8 of the total geometry was adopted to reduce mesh size and minimize processing time. The model considers the coexistence of four phases and also takes into account the heat losses. The relationships for interfacial mass, energy, and momentum transport are programmed and incorporated into CFX. Moreover, two subdomains and several additional variables are defined to monitoring the boron dilution sequences and condensation-evaporation rates in different control volumes. For transient states a non - equilibrium stratification in the pressurizer is considered. This paper discusses the model developed and the behavior of the system for representative transients sequences. The results of analyzed transients of IRIS can be applied to the design of pressurizer internal structures and components. (author)

  7. CFD modeling of the IRIS pressurizer dynamic

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sanz, Ronny R.; Montesinos, Maria E.; Garcia, Carlos; Bueno, Elizabeth D.; Mazaira, Leorlen R., E-mail: rsanz@instec.cu, E-mail: mmontesi@instec.cu, E-mail: cgh@instec.cu, E-mail: leored1984@gmail.com [Instituto Superior de Tecnologias y Ciencias Aplicadas (InSTEC), La Habana (Cuba); Bezerra, Jair L.; Lira, Carlos A.B. Oliveira, E-mail: jair.lima@ufpe.br, E-mail: cabol@ufpe.br [Universida Federal de Pernambuco (UFPE), Recife, PE (Brazil). Dept. de Energia Nuclear

    2015-07-01

    Integral layout of nuclear reactor IRIS makes possible the elimination of the spray system, which is usually used to mitigate in-surge transient and also help to Boron homogenization. The study of transients with deficiencies in the Boron homogenization in this technology is very important, because they can cause disturbances in the reactor power and insert a strong reactivity in the core. The detailed knowledge of the behavior of multiphase multicomponent flows is challenging due to the complex phenomena and interactions at the interface. In this context, the CFD modeling is employed in the design of equipment in the nuclear industry as it allows predicting accidents or predicting their performance in dissimilar applications. The aim of the present research is to model the IRIS pressurizer's dynamic using the commercial CFD code CFX. A symmetric tri dimensional model equivalent to 1/8 of the total geometry was adopted to reduce mesh size and minimize processing time. The model considers the coexistence of four phases and also takes into account the heat losses. The relationships for interfacial mass, energy, and momentum transport are programmed and incorporated into CFX. Moreover, two subdomains and several additional variables are defined to monitoring the boron dilution sequences and condensation-evaporation rates in different control volumes. For transient states a non - equilibrium stratification in the pressurizer is considered. This paper discusses the model developed and the behavior of the system for representative transients sequences. The results of analyzed transients of IRIS can be applied to the design of pressurizer internal structures and components. (author)

  8. Characterizing and modeling citation dynamics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Young-Ho Eom

    Full Text Available Citation distributions are crucial for the analysis and modeling of the activity of scientists. We investigated bibliometric data of papers published in journals of the American Physical Society, searching for the type of function which best describes the observed citation distributions. We used the goodness of fit with Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistics for three classes of functions: log-normal, simple power law and shifted power law. The shifted power law turns out to be the most reliable hypothesis for all citation networks we derived, which correspond to different time spans. We find that citation dynamics is characterized by bursts, usually occurring within a few years since publication of a paper, and the burst size spans several orders of magnitude. We also investigated the microscopic mechanisms for the evolution of citation networks, by proposing a linear preferential attachment with time dependent initial attractiveness. The model successfully reproduces the empirical citation distributions and accounts for the presence of citation bursts as well.

  9. Supply based on demand dynamical model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levi, Asaf; Sabuco, Juan; Sanjuán, Miguel A. F.

    2018-04-01

    We propose and numerically analyze a simple dynamical model that describes the firm behaviors under uncertainty of demand. Iterating this simple model and varying some parameter values, we observe a wide variety of market dynamics such as equilibria, periodic, and chaotic behaviors. Interestingly, the model is also able to reproduce market collapses.

  10. Opinion dynamics model based on quantum formalism

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Artawan, I. Nengah, E-mail: nengahartawan@gmail.com [Theoretical Physics Division, Department of Physics, Udayana University (Indonesia); Trisnawati, N. L. P., E-mail: nlptrisnawati@gmail.com [Biophysics, Department of Physics, Udayana University (Indonesia)

    2016-03-11

    Opinion dynamics model based on quantum formalism is proposed. The core of the quantum formalism is on the half spin dynamics system. In this research the implicit time evolution operators are derived. The analogy between the model with Deffuant dan Sznajd models is discussed.

  11. Ab Initio Molecular Dynamics of Uranium Incorporated in Goethite (α-FeOOH): Interpretation of X-ray Absorption Spectroscopy of Trace Polyvalent Metals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerisit, Sebastien; Bylaska, Eric J; Massey, Michael S; McBriarty, Martin E; Ilton, Eugene S

    2016-11-21

    Incorporation of economically or environmentally consequential polyvalent metals into iron (oxyhydr)oxides has applications in environmental chemistry, remediation, and materials science. A primary tool for characterizing the local coordination environment of such metals, and therefore building models to predict their behavior, is extended X-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy (EXAFS). Accurate structural information can be lacking yet is required to constrain and inform data interpretation. In this regard, ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) was used to calculate the local coordination environment of minor amounts of U incorporated in the structure of goethite (α-FeOOH). U oxidation states (VI, V, and IV) and charge compensation schemes were varied. Simulated trajectories were used to calculate the U L III -edge EXAFS function and fit experimental EXAFS data for U incorporated into goethite under reducing conditions. Calculations that closely matched the U EXAFS of the well-characterized mineral uraninite (UO 2 ), and constrained the S 0 2 parameter to be 0.909, validated the approach. The results for the U-goethite system indicated that U(V) substituted for structural Fe(III) in octahedral uranate coordination. Charge balance was achieved by the loss of one structural proton coupled to addition of one electron into the solid (-1 H + , +1 e - ). The ability of AIMD to model higher energy states thermally accessible at room temperature is particularly relevant for protonated systems such as goethite, where proton transfers between adjacent octahedra had a dramatic effect on the calculated EXAFS. Vibrational effects as a function of temperature were also estimated using AIMD, allowing separate quantification of thermal and configurational disorder. In summary, coupling AIMD structural modeling and EXAFS experiments enables modeling of the redox behavior of polyvalent metals that are incorporated in conductive materials such as iron (oxyhydr)oxides, with

  12. Relating structure and dynamics in organisation models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonker, C.M.; Treur, J.

    2003-01-01

    To understand how an organisational structure relates to dynamics is an interesting fundamental challenge in the area of social modelling. Specifications of organisational structure usually have a diagrammatic form that abstracts from more detailed dynamics. Dynamic properties of agent systems, on

  13. Incorporating NDVI in a gravity model setting to describe spatio-temporal patterns of Lyme borreliosis incidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrios, J. M.; Verstraeten, W. W.; Farifteh, J.; Maes, P.; Aerts, J. M.; Coppin, P.

    2012-04-01

    Lyme borreliosis (LB) is the most common tick-borne disease in Europe and incidence growth has been reported in several European countries during the last decade. LB is caused by the bacterium Borrelia burgdorferi and the main vector of this pathogen in Europe is the tick Ixodes ricinus. LB incidence and spatial spread is greatly dependent on environmental conditions impacting habitat, demography and trophic interactions of ticks and the wide range of organisms ticks parasite. The landscape configuration is also a major determinant of tick habitat conditions and -very important- of the fashion and intensity of human interaction with vegetated areas, i.e. human exposure to the pathogen. Hence, spatial notions as distance and adjacency between urban and vegetated environments are related to human exposure to tick bites and, thus, to risk. This work tested the adequacy of a gravity model setting to model the observed spatio-temporal pattern of LB as a function of location and size of urban and vegetated areas and the seasonal and annual change in the vegetation dynamics as expressed by MODIS NDVI. Opting for this approach implies an analogy with Newton's law of universal gravitation in which the attraction forces between two bodies are directly proportional to the bodies mass and inversely proportional to distance. Similar implementations have proven useful in fields like trade modeling, health care service planning, disease mapping among other. In our implementation, the size of human settlements and vegetated systems and the distance separating these landscape elements are considered the 'bodies'; and the 'attraction' between them is an indicator of exposure to pathogen. A novel element of this implementation is the incorporation of NDVI to account for the seasonal and annual variation in risk. The importance of incorporating this indicator of vegetation activity resides in the fact that alterations of LB incidence pattern observed the last decade have been ascribed

  14. Incorporation of composite defects from ultrasonic NDE into CAD and FE models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bingol, Onur Rauf; Schiefelbein, Bryan; Grandin, Robert J.; Holland, Stephen D.; Krishnamurthy, Adarsh

    2017-02-01

    Fiber-reinforced composites are widely used in aerospace industry due to their combined properties of high strength and low weight. However, owing to their complex structure, it is difficult to assess the impact of manufacturing defects and service damage on their residual life. While, ultrasonic testing (UT) is the preferred NDE method to identify the presence of defects in composites, there are no reasonable ways to model the damage and evaluate the structural integrity of composites. We have developed an automated framework to incorporate flaws and known composite damage automatically into a finite element analysis (FEA) model of composites, ultimately aiding in accessing the residual life of composites and make informed decisions regarding repairs. The framework can be used to generate a layer-by-layer 3D structural CAD model of the composite laminates replicating their manufacturing process. Outlines of structural defects, such as delaminations, are automatically detected from UT of the laminate and are incorporated into the CAD model between the appropriate layers. In addition, the framework allows for direct structural analysis of the resulting 3D CAD models with defects by automatically applying the appropriate boundary conditions. In this paper, we show a working proof-of-concept for the composite model builder with capabilities of incorporating delaminations between laminate layers and automatically preparing the CAD model for structural analysis using a FEA software.

  15. Incorporating planned activities and events in a dynamic multi-day activity agenda generator

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nijland, L.; Arentze, T.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2012-01-01

    Daily agenda formation is influenced by formal commitments, satisfaction of needs surpassing some threshold and the desire to conduct particular activities in anticipation of socially and religiously driven events such as birthdays, Christmas, etc. As part of a research program to develop a dynamic

  16. Incorporating Social Anxiety Into a Model of College Problem Drinking: Replication and Extension

    OpenAIRE

    Ham, Lindsay S.; Hope, Debra A.

    2006-01-01

    Although research has found an association between social anxiety and alcohol use in noncollege samples, results have been mixed for college samples. College students face many novel social situations in which they may drink to reduce social anxiety. In the current study, the authors tested a model of college problem drinking, incorporating social anxiety and related psychosocial variables among 228 undergraduate volunteers. According to structural equation modeling (SEM) results, social anxi...

  17. PWR plant operator training used full scope simulator incorporated MAAP model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsumoto, Y.; Tabuchi, T.; Yamashita, T.; Komatsu, Y.; Tsubouchi, K.; Banka, T.; Mochizuki, T.; Nishimura, K.; Iizuka, H.

    2015-01-01

    NTC makes an effort with the understanding of plant behavior of core damage accident as part of our advanced training. For the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident, we introduced the MAAP model into PWR operator training full scope simulator and also made the Severe Accident Visual Display unit. From 2014, we will introduce new training program for a core damage accident with PWR operator training full scope simulator incorporated the MAAP model and the Severe Accident Visual Display unit. (author)

  18. INCORPORATING MULTIPLE OBJECTIVES IN PLANNING MODELS OF LOW-RESOURCE FARMERS

    OpenAIRE

    Flinn, John C.; Jayasuriya, Sisira; Knight, C. Gregory

    1980-01-01

    Linear goal programming provides a means of formally incorporating the multiple goals of a household into the analysis of farming systems. Using this approach, the set of plans which come as close as possible to achieving a set of desired goals under conditions of land and cash scarcity are derived for a Filipino tenant farmer. A challenge in making LGP models empirically operational is the accurate definition of the goals of the farm household being modelled.

  19. Dynamic modelling of nuclear steam generators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kerlin, T.W.; Katz, E.M.; Freels, J.; Thakkar, J.

    1980-01-01

    Moving boundary, nodal models with dynamic energy balances, dynamic mass balances, quasi-static momentum balances, and an equivalent single channel approach have been developed for steam generators used in nuclear power plants. The model for the U-tube recirculation type steam generator is described and comparisons are made of responses from models of different complexity; non-linear versus linear, high-order versus low order, detailed modeling of the control system versus a simple control assumption. The results of dynamic tests on nuclear power systems show that when this steam generator model is included in a system simulation there is good agreement with actual plant performance. (author)

  20. Dynamic Airspace Managment - Models and Algorithms

    OpenAIRE

    Cheng, Peng; Geng, Rui

    2010-01-01

    This chapter investigates the models and algorithms for implementing the concept of Dynamic Airspace Management. Three models are discussed. First two models are about how to use or adjust air route dynamically in order to speed up air traffic flow and reduce delay. The third model gives a way to dynamically generate the optimal sector configuration for an air traffic control center to both balance the controller’s workload and save control resources. The first model, called the Dynami...

  1. Wind Farm Decentralized Dynamic Modeling With Parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Soltani, Mohsen; Shakeri, Sayyed Mojtaba; Grunnet, Jacob Deleuran

    2010-01-01

    Development of dynamic wind flow models for wind farms is part of the research in European research FP7 project AEOLUS. The objective of this report is to provide decentralized dynamic wind flow models with parameters. The report presents a structure for decentralized flow models with inputs from...... local models. The results of this report are especially useful, but not limited, to design a decentralized wind farm controller, since in centralized controller design one can also use the model and update it in a central computing node.......Development of dynamic wind flow models for wind farms is part of the research in European research FP7 project AEOLUS. The objective of this report is to provide decentralized dynamic wind flow models with parameters. The report presents a structure for decentralized flow models with inputs from...

  2. System dynamics modelling of situation awareness

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Oosthuizen, R

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available . The feedback loops and delays in the Command and Control system also contribute to the complex dynamic behavior. This paper will build on existing situation awareness models to develop a System Dynamics model to support a qualitative investigation through...

  3. A climatological model for risk computations incorporating site- specific dry deposition influences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Droppo, J.G. Jr.

    1991-07-01

    A gradient-flux dry deposition module was developed for use in a climatological atmospheric transport model, the Multimedia Environmental Pollutant Assessment System (MEPAS). The atmospheric pathway model computes long-term average contaminant air concentration and surface deposition patterns surrounding a potential release site incorporating location-specific dry deposition influences. Gradient-flux formulations are used to incorporate site and regional data in the dry deposition module for this atmospheric sector-average climatological model. Application of these formulations provide an effective means of accounting for local surface roughness in deposition computations. Linkage to a risk computation module resulted in a need for separate regional and specific surface deposition computations. 13 refs., 4 figs., 2 tabs

  4. An Agent Model Integrating an Adaptive Model for Environmental Dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Treur, J.; Umair, M.

    2011-01-01

    The environments in which agents are used often may be described by dynamical models, e.g., in the form of a set of differential equations. In this paper, an agent model is proposed that can perform model-based reasoning about the environment, based on a numerical (dynamical system) model of the

  5. Hydration dynamics near a model protein surface

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russo, Daniela; Hura, Greg; Head-Gordon, Teresa

    2003-01-01

    The evolution of water dynamics from dilute to very high concentration solutions of a prototypical hydrophobic amino acid with its polar backbone, N-acetyl-leucine-methylamide (NALMA), is studied by quasi-elastic neutron scattering and molecular dynamics simulation for both the completely deuterated and completely hydrogenated leucine monomer. We observe several unexpected features in the dynamics of these biological solutions under ambient conditions. The NALMA dynamics shows evidence of de Gennes narrowing, an indication of coherent long timescale structural relaxation dynamics. The translational water dynamics are analyzed in a first approximation with a jump diffusion model. At the highest solute concentrations, the hydration water dynamics is significantly suppressed and characterized by a long residential time and a slow diffusion coefficient. The analysis of the more dilute concentration solutions takes into account the results of the 2.0M solution as a model of the first hydration shell. Subtracting the first hydration layer based on the 2.0M spectra, the translational diffusion dynamics is still suppressed, although the rotational relaxation time and residential time are converged to bulk-water values. Molecular dynamics analysis shows spatially heterogeneous dynamics at high concentration that becomes homogeneous at more dilute concentrations. We discuss the hydration dynamics results of this model protein system in the context of glassy systems, protein function, and protein-protein interfaces

  6. In silico investigation of the short QT syndrome, using human ventricle models incorporating electromechanical coupling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ismail eAdeniran

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Introduction Genetic forms of the Short QT Syndrome (SQTS arise due to cardiac ion channel mutations leading to accelerated ventricular repolarisation, arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death. Results from experimental and simulation studies suggest that changes to refractoriness and tissue vulnerability produce a substrate favourable to re-entry. Potential electromechanical consequences of the SQTS are less well understood. The aim of this study was to utilize electromechanically coupled human ventricle models to explore electromechanical consequences of the SQTS. Methods and results: The Rice et al. mechanical model was coupled to the ten Tusscher et al. ventricular cell model. Previously validated K+ channel formulations for SQT variants 1 and 3 were incorporated. Functional effects of the SQTS mutations on transients, sarcomere length shortening and contractile force at the single cell level were evaluated with and without the consideration of stretch activated channel current (Isac. Without Isac, the SQTS mutations produced dramatic reductions in the amplitude of transients, sarcomere length shortening and contractile force. When Isac was incorporated, there was a considerable attenuation of the effects of SQTS-associated action potential shortening on Ca2+ transients, sarcomere shortening and contractile force. Single cell models were then incorporated into 3D human ventricular tissue models. The timing of maximum deformation was delayed in the SQTS setting compared to control. Conclusion: The incorporation of Isac appears to be an important consideration in modelling functional effects of SQT 1 and 3 mutations on cardiac electro-mechanical coupling. Whilst there is little evidence of profoundly impaired cardiac contractile function in SQTS patients, our 3D simulations correlate qualitatively with reported evidence for dissociation between ventricular repolarization and the end of mechanical systole.

  7. Improving Watershed-Scale Hydrodynamic Models by Incorporating Synthetic 3D River Bathymetry Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dey, S.; Saksena, S.; Merwade, V.

    2017-12-01

    Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) have an incomplete representation of river bathymetry, which is critical for simulating river hydrodynamics in flood modeling. Generally, DEMs are augmented with field collected bathymetry data, but such data are available only at individual reaches. Creating a hydrodynamic model covering an entire stream network in the basin requires bathymetry for all streams. This study extends a conceptual bathymetry model, River Channel Morphology Model (RCMM), to estimate the bathymetry for an entire stream network for application in hydrodynamic modeling using a DEM. It is implemented at two large watersheds with different relief and land use characterizations: coastal Guadalupe River basin in Texas with flat terrain and a relatively urban White River basin in Indiana with more relief. After bathymetry incorporation, both watersheds are modeled using HEC-RAS (1D hydraulic model) and Interconnected Pond and Channel Routing (ICPR), a 2-D integrated hydrologic and hydraulic model. A comparison of the streamflow estimated by ICPR at the outlet of the basins indicates that incorporating bathymetry influences streamflow estimates. The inundation maps show that bathymetry has a higher impact on flat terrains of Guadalupe River basin when compared to the White River basin.

  8. Forecasting house prices in the 50 states using Dynamic Model Averaging and Dynamic Model Selection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bork, Lasse; Møller, Stig Vinther

    2015-01-01

    We examine house price forecastability across the 50 states using Dynamic Model Averaging and Dynamic Model Selection, which allow for model change and parameter shifts. By allowing the entire forecasting model to change over time and across locations, the forecasting accuracy improves substantia......We examine house price forecastability across the 50 states using Dynamic Model Averaging and Dynamic Model Selection, which allow for model change and parameter shifts. By allowing the entire forecasting model to change over time and across locations, the forecasting accuracy improves...

  9. Approaches to incorporating climate change effects in state and transition simulation models of vegetation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becky K. Kerns; Miles A. Hemstrom; David Conklin; Gabriel I. Yospin; Bart Johnson; Dominique Bachelet; Scott Bridgham

    2012-01-01

    Understanding landscape vegetation dynamics often involves the use of scientifically-based modeling tools that are capable of testing alternative management scenarios given complex ecological, management, and social conditions. State-and-transition simulation model (STSM) frameworks and software such as PATH and VDDT are commonly used tools that simulate how landscapes...

  10. Incorporating spatial autocorrelation into species distribution models alters forecasts of climate-mediated range shifts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crase, Beth; Liedloff, Adam; Vesk, Peter A; Fukuda, Yusuke; Wintle, Brendan A

    2014-08-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to forecast changes in the spatial distributions of species and communities in response to climate change. However, spatial autocorrelation (SA) is rarely accounted for in these models, despite its ubiquity in broad-scale ecological data. While spatial autocorrelation in model residuals is known to result in biased parameter estimates and the inflation of type I errors, the influence of unmodeled SA on species' range forecasts is poorly understood. Here we quantify how accounting for SA in SDMs influences the magnitude of range shift forecasts produced by SDMs for multiple climate change scenarios. SDMs were fitted to simulated data with a known autocorrelation structure, and to field observations of three mangrove communities from northern Australia displaying strong spatial autocorrelation. Three modeling approaches were implemented: environment-only models (most frequently applied in species' range forecasts), and two approaches that incorporate SA; autologistic models and residuals autocovariate (RAC) models. Differences in forecasts among modeling approaches and climate scenarios were quantified. While all model predictions at the current time closely matched that of the actual current distribution of the mangrove communities, under the climate change scenarios environment-only models forecast substantially greater range shifts than models incorporating SA. Furthermore, the magnitude of these differences intensified with increasing increments of climate change across the scenarios. When models do not account for SA, forecasts of species' range shifts indicate more extreme impacts of climate change, compared to models that explicitly account for SA. Therefore, where biological or population processes induce substantial autocorrelation in the distribution of organisms, and this is not modeled, model predictions will be inaccurate. These results have global importance for conservation efforts as inaccurate

  11. Adaptive numerical modeling of dynamic crack propagation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adouani, H.; Tie, B.; Berdin, C.; Aubry, D.

    2006-01-01

    We propose an adaptive numerical strategy that aims at developing reliable and efficient numerical tools to model dynamic crack propagation and crack arrest. We use the cohesive zone theory as behavior of interface-type elements to model crack. Since the crack path is generally unknown beforehand, adaptive meshing is proposed to model the dynamic crack propagation. The dynamic study requires the development of specific solvers for time integration. As both geometry and finite element mesh of the studied structure evolve in time during transient analysis, the stability behavior of dynamic solver becomes a major concern. For this purpose, we use the space-time discontinuous Galerkin finite element method, well-known to provide a natural framework to manage meshes that evolve in time. As an important result, we prove that the space-time discontinuous Galerkin solver is unconditionally stable, when the dynamic crack propagation is modeled by the cohesive zone theory, which is highly non-linear. (authors)

  12. Making a difference: incorporating theories of autonomy into models of informed consent.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delany, C

    2008-09-01

    Obtaining patients' informed consent is an ethical and legal obligation in healthcare practice. Whilst the law provides prescriptive rules and guidelines, ethical theories of autonomy provide moral foundations. Models of practice of consent, have been developed in the bioethical literature to assist in understanding and integrating the ethical theory of autonomy and legal obligations into the clinical process of obtaining a patient's informed consent to treatment. To review four models of consent and analyse the way each model incorporates the ethical meaning of autonomy and how, as a consequence, they might change the actual communicative process of obtaining informed consent within clinical contexts. An iceberg framework of consent is used to conceptualise how ethical theories of autonomy are positioned and underpin the above surface, and visible clinical communication, including associated legal guidelines and ethical rules. Each model of consent is critically reviewed from the perspective of how it might shape the process of informed consent. All four models would alter the process of obtaining consent. Two models provide structure and guidelines for the content and timing of obtaining patients' consent. The two other models rely on an attitudinal shift in clinicians. They provide ideas for consent by focusing on underlying values, attitudes and meaning associated with the ethical meaning of autonomy. The paper concludes that models of practice that explicitly incorporate the underlying ethical meaning of autonomy as their basis, provide less prescriptive, but more theoretically rich guidance for healthcare communicative practices.

  13. Incorporation of human factors into ship collision risk models focusing on human centred design aspects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sotiralis, P.; Ventikos, N.P.; Hamann, R.; Golyshev, P.; Teixeira, A.P.

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents an approach that more adequately incorporates human factor considerations into quantitative risk analysis of ship operation. The focus is on the collision accident category, which is one of the main risk contributors in ship operation. The approach is based on the development of a Bayesian Network (BN) model that integrates elements from the Technique for Retrospective and Predictive Analysis of Cognitive Errors (TRACEr) and focuses on the calculation of the collision accident probability due to human error. The model takes into account the human performance in normal, abnormal and critical operational conditions and implements specific tasks derived from the analysis of the task errors leading to the collision accident category. A sensitivity analysis is performed to identify the most important contributors to human performance and ship collision. Finally, the model developed is applied to assess the collision risk of a feeder operating in Dover strait using the collision probability estimated by the developed BN model and an Event tree model for calculation of human, economic and environmental risks. - Highlights: • A collision risk model for the incorporation of human factors into quantitative risk analysis is proposed. • The model takes into account the human performance in different operational conditions leading to the collision. • The most important contributors to human performance and ship collision are identified. • The model developed is applied to assess the collision risk of a feeder operating in Dover strait.

  14. The System Dynamics Model for Development of Organic Agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rozman, Črtomir; Škraba, Andrej; Kljajić, Miroljub; Pažek, Karmen; Bavec, Martina; Bavec, Franci

    2008-10-01

    Organic agriculture is the highest environmentally valuable agricultural system, and has strategic importance at national level that goes beyond the interests of agricultural sector. In this paper we address development of organic farming simulation model based on a system dynamics methodology (SD). The system incorporates relevant variables, which affect the development of the organic farming. The group decision support system (GDSS) was used in order to identify most relevant variables for construction of causal loop diagram and further model development. The model seeks answers to strategic questions related to the level of organically utilized area, levels of production and crop selection in a long term dynamic context and will be used for simulation of different policy scenarios for organic farming and their impact on economic and environmental parameters of organic production at an aggregate level.

  15. Optimal parameters for the FFA-Beddoes dynamic stall model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bjoerck, A; Mert, M [FFA, The Aeronautical Research Institute of Sweden, Bromma (Sweden); Madsen, H A [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark)

    1999-03-01

    Unsteady aerodynamic effects, like dynamic stall, must be considered in calculation of dynamic forces for wind turbines. Models incorporated in aero-elastic programs are of semi-empirical nature. Resulting aerodynamic forces therefore depend on values used for the semi-empiricial parameters. In this paper a study of finding appropriate parameters to use with the Beddoes-Leishman model is discussed. Minimisation of the `tracking error` between results from 2D wind tunnel tests and simulation with the model is used to find optimum values for the parameters. The resulting optimum parameters show a large variation from case to case. Using these different sets of optimum parameters in the calculation of blade vibrations, give rise to quite different predictions of aerodynamic damping which is discussed. (au)

  16. Modeling fraud detection and the incorporation of forensic specialists in the audit process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sakalauskaite, Dominyka

    Financial statement audits are still comparatively poor in fraud detection. Forensic specialists can play a significant role in increasing audit quality. In this paper, based on prior academic research, I develop a model of fraud detection and the incorporation of forensic specialists in the audit...... process. The intention of the model is to identify the reasons why the audit is weak in fraud detection and to provide the analytical framework to assess whether the incorporation of forensic specialists can help to improve it. The results show that such specialists can potentially improve the fraud...... detection in the audit, but might also cause some negative implications. Overall, even though fraud detection is one of the main topics in research there are very few studies done on the subject of how auditors co-operate with forensic specialists. Thus, the paper concludes with suggestions for further...

  17. Gold Incorporated Mesoporous Silica Thin Film Model Surface as a Robust SERS and Catalytically Active Substrate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anandakumari Chandrasekharan Sunil Sekhar

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Ultra-small gold nanoparticles incorporated in mesoporous silica thin films with accessible pore channels perpendicular to the substrate are prepared by a modified sol-gel method. The simple and easy spin coating technique is applied here to make homogeneous thin films. The surface characterization using FESEM shows crack-free films with a perpendicular pore arrangement. The applicability of these thin films as catalysts as well as a robust SERS active substrate for model catalysis study is tested. Compared to bare silica film our gold incorporated silica, GSM-23F gave an enhancement factor of 103 for RhB with a laser source 633 nm. The reduction reaction of p-nitrophenol with sodium borohydride from our thin films shows a decrease in peak intensity corresponding to –NO2 group as time proceeds, confirming the catalytic activity. Such model surfaces can potentially bridge the material gap between a real catalytic system and surface science studies.

  18. Prosthetics socket that incorporates an air splint system focusing on dynamic interface pressure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razak, Nasrul Anuar Abd; Osman, Noor Azuan Abu; Gholizadeh, Hossein; Ali, Sadeeq

    2014-08-01

    The interface pressure between the residual limb and prosthetic socket has a significant effect on an amputee's satisfaction and comfort. This paper presents the design and performance of a new prosthetic socket that uses an air splint system. The air splint prosthetic socket system was implemented by combining the air splint with a pressure sensor that the transhumeral user controls through the use of a microcontroller. The modular construction of the system developed allows the FSR pressure sensors that are placed inside the air splint socket to determine the required size and fitting for the socket used. Fifteen transhumeral amputees participated in the study. The subject's dynamic pressure on the socket that's applied while wearing the air splint systems was recorded using F-socket transducers and microcontroller analysis. The values collected by the F-socket sensor for the air splint prosthetic socket system were determined accordingly by comparing the dynamic pressure applied using statically socket. The pressure volume of the air splint fluctuated and was recorded at an average of 38 kPa (2.5) to 41 kPa (1.3) over three hours. The air splint socket might reduce the pressure within the interface of residual limb. This is particularly important during the daily life activities and may reduce the pain and discomfort at the residual limb in comparison to the static socket. The potential development of an auto-adjusted socket that uses an air splint system as the prosthetic socket will be of interest to researchers involved in rehabilitation engineering, prosthetics and orthotics.

  19. Modeling Gas Dynamics in California Sea Lions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-30

    W. and Fahlman, A. (2009). Could beaked whales get the bends?. Effect of diving behaviour and physiology on modelled gas exchange for three species...1 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Modeling Gas Dynamics in California Sea Lions Andreas...to update a current gas dynamics model with recently acquired data for respiratory compliance (P-V), and body compartment size estimates in

  20. A Dynamic Model of Sustainment Investment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-02-01

    Sustainment System Dynamics Model 11 Figure 7: Core Structure of Sustainment Work 12 Figure 8: Bandwagon Effect Loop 13 Figure 9: Limits to Growth Loop 14...Dynamics Model sustainment capacity sustainment performance gap Bandwagon Effect R1 Limits to Growth B1 S Work Smarter B3 Work Bigger B2 desired...which is of concern primarily when using the model as a vehicle for research. Figure 8 depicts a reinforcing loop called the “ Bandwagon Effect

  1. Modeling the Dynamic Digestive System Microbiome†

    OpenAIRE

    Estes, Anne M.

    2015-01-01

    Modeling the Dynamic Digestive System Microbiome” is a hands-on activity designed to demonstrate the dynamics of microbiome ecology using dried pasta and beans to model disturbance events in the human digestive system microbiome. This exercise demonstrates how microbiome diversity is influenced by: 1) niche availability and habitat space and 2) a major disturbance event, such as antibiotic use. Students use a pictorial key to examine prepared models of digestive system microbiomes to determi...

  2. Differential equation models for sharp threshold dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schramm, Harrison C; Dimitrov, Nedialko B

    2014-01-01

    We develop an extension to differential equation models of dynamical systems to allow us to analyze probabilistic threshold dynamics that fundamentally and globally change system behavior. We apply our novel modeling approach to two cases of interest: a model of infectious disease modified for malware where a detection event drastically changes dynamics by introducing a new class in competition with the original infection; and the Lanchester model of armed conflict, where the loss of a key capability drastically changes the effectiveness of one of the sides. We derive and demonstrate a step-by-step, repeatable method for applying our novel modeling approach to an arbitrary system, and we compare the resulting differential equations to simulations of the system's random progression. Our work leads to a simple and easily implemented method for analyzing probabilistic threshold dynamics using differential equations. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  3. Furnace draft dynamics analysis after a flue gas desulphurization system incorporation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zazo, J.F.L. [Tecnatom, S.A. (Spain)

    2007-07-01

    Due to environmental regulations some utilities are modifying coal-fired power groups by installing a flue gas desulfurisation system (FGDS) in order to remove SO{sub 2} from a gas stream. These studies have been ordered by 'Endesa Generacion' for the following power plant groups: C.T. Teruel Grs. 1-3, C.T. Litoral Gr. 2, C.T. Compostilla Gr. 3, C.T. Alucdia Grs. 1-2, C.T. Compostilla Grs. 4-5 (on-going); and C.T. Los Barrios (on-going). The pictures that appear in this abstract correspond to Compostilla Gr.4 and Los Barrios projects. In both cases FGDS installation implies a new booster fan and heat exchanger keeping former Induced Draft Fans (IDFs). The main goal for these projects is to analyze the new flue-gas dynamic, in order to: detect risk situations to equipment, particularly to boiler integrity, test control system strategies and interlocks, select parameters to valves and control system to minimize pressure transients, and test operation strategies. 14 figs.

  4. Incorporation of stochastic engineering models as prior information in Bayesian medical device trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haddad, Tarek; Himes, Adam; Thompson, Laura; Irony, Telba; Nair, Rajesh

    2017-01-01

    Evaluation of medical devices via clinical trial is often a necessary step in the process of bringing a new product to market. In recent years, device manufacturers are increasingly using stochastic engineering models during the product development process. These models have the capability to simulate virtual patient outcomes. This article presents a novel method based on the power prior for augmenting a clinical trial using virtual patient data. To properly inform clinical evaluation, the virtual patient model must simulate the clinical outcome of interest, incorporating patient variability, as well as the uncertainty in the engineering model and in its input parameters. The number of virtual patients is controlled by a discount function which uses the similarity between modeled and observed data. This method is illustrated by a case study of cardiac lead fracture. Different discount functions are used to cover a wide range of scenarios in which the type I error rates and power vary for the same number of enrolled patients. Incorporation of engineering models as prior knowledge in a Bayesian clinical trial design can provide benefits of decreased sample size and trial length while still controlling type I error rate and power.

  5. Nonlinear dynamic phenomena in the beer model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mosekilde, Erik; Laugesen, Jakob Lund

    2007-01-01

    The production-distribution system or "beer game" is one of the most well-known system dynamics models. Notorious for the complex dynamics it produces, the beer game has been used for nearly five decades to illustrate how structure generates behavior and to explore human decision making. Here we...

  6. Phone Routing using the Dynamic Memory Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bendtsen, Claus Nicolaj; Krink, Thiemo

    2002-01-01

    In earlier studies a genetic algorithm (GA) extended with the dynamic memory model has shown remarkable performance on real-world-like problems. In this paper we experiment with routing in communication networks and show that the dynamic memory GA performs remarkable well compared to ant colony...

  7. MDESRAP: a model for understanding the dynamics of electricity supply, resources and pollution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qudrat-Ullah, H.

    2005-01-01

    The inherent dynamic complexity of the energy policy design problem makes the conventional 'closed-form' solution impossible. This paper contributes a dynamic simulation model as a possible solution. The model captures the dynamics of underlying sectors of electricity demand, investment, capital, resource, production, environment and costs and pricing. The existing feedback loops, nonlinearity and time-lag characteristics present in the real world electricity systems are incorporated in the model. The model is calibrated to Pakistan's case data. How the model has been used in policy assessments and the design of the alternative energy policies subject to various environmental and resource constraints is also discussed. (author)

  8. Dynamic queuing transmission model for dynamic network loading

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Raovic, Nevena; Nielsen, Otto Anker; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2017-01-01

    and allowing for the representation of multiple vehicle classes, queue spillbacks and shock waves. The model assumes that a link is split into a moving part plus a queuing part, and p that traffic dynamics are given by a triangular fundamental diagram. A case-study is investigated and the DQTM is compared...

  9. A code reviewer assignment model incorporating the competence differences and participant preferences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang Yanqing

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available A good assignment of code reviewers can effectively utilize the intellectual resources, assure code quality and improve programmers’ skills in software development. However, little research on reviewer assignment of code review has been found. In this study, a code reviewer assignment model is created based on participants’ preference to reviewing assignment. With a constraint of the smallest size of a review group, the model is optimized to maximize review outcomes and avoid the negative impact of “mutual admiration society”. This study shows that the reviewer assignment strategies incorporating either the reviewers’ preferences or the authors’ preferences get much improvement than a random assignment. The strategy incorporating authors’ preference makes higher improvement than that incorporating reviewers’ preference. However, when the reviewers’ and authors’ preference matrixes are merged, the improvement becomes moderate. The study indicates that the majority of the participants have a strong wish to work with reviewers and authors having highest competence. If we want to satisfy the preference of both reviewers and authors at the same time, the overall improvement of learning outcomes may be not the best.

  10. A modified social force model for crowd dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassan, Ummi Nurmasyitah; Zainuddin, Zarita; Abu-Sulyman, Ibtesam M.

    2017-08-01

    The Social Force Model (SFM) is one of the most successful models in microscopic pedestrian studies that is used to study the movement of pedestrians. Many modifications have been done to improvise the SFM by earlier researchers such as the incorporation of a constant respect factor into the self-stopping mechanism. Before the new mechanism is introduced, the researchers found out that a pedestrian will immediately come to a halt if other pedestrians are near to him, which seems to be an unrealistic behavior. Therefore, researchers introduce a self-slowing mechanism to gradually stop a pedestrian when he is approaching other pedestrians. Subsequently, the dynamic respect factor is introduced into the self-slowing mechanism based on the density of the pedestrians to make the model even more realistic. In real life situations, the respect factor of the pedestrians should be dynamic values instead of a constant value. However, when we reproduce the simulation of the dynamic respect factor, we found that the movement of the pedestrians are unrealistic because the pedestrians are lacking perception of the pedestrians in front of him. In this paper, we adopted both dynamic respect factor and dynamic angular parameter, called modified dynamic respect factor, which is dependent on the density of the pedestrians. Simulations are performed in a normal unidirectional walkway to compare the simulated pedestrians' movements produced by both models. The results obtained showed that the modified dynamic respect factor produces more realistic movement of the pedestrians which conform to the real situation. Moreover, we also found that the simulations endow the pedestrian with a self-slowing mechanism and a perception of other pedestrians in front of him.

  11. A Novel Approach of Understanding and Incorporating Error of Chemical Transport Models into a Geostatistical Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyes, J.; Vizuete, W.; Serre, M. L.; Xu, Y.

    2015-12-01

    The EPA employs a vast monitoring network to measure ambient PM2.5 concentrations across the United States with one of its goals being to quantify exposure within the population. However, there are several areas of the country with sparse monitoring spatially and temporally. One means to fill in these monitoring gaps is to use PM2.5 modeled estimates from Chemical Transport Models (CTMs) specifically the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. CMAQ is able to provide complete spatial coverage but is subject to systematic and random error due to model uncertainty. Due to the deterministic nature of CMAQ, often these uncertainties are not quantified. Much effort is employed to quantify the efficacy of these models through different metrics of model performance. Currently evaluation is specific to only locations with observed data. Multiyear studies across the United States are challenging because the error and model performance of CMAQ are not uniform over such large space/time domains. Error changes regionally and temporally. Because of the complex mix of species that constitute PM2.5, CMAQ error is also a function of increasing PM2.5 concentration. To address this issue we introduce a model performance evaluation for PM2.5 CMAQ that is regionalized and non-linear. This model performance evaluation leads to error quantification for each CMAQ grid. Areas and time periods of error being better qualified. The regionalized error correction approach is non-linear and is therefore more flexible at characterizing model performance than approaches that rely on linearity assumptions and assume homoscedasticity of CMAQ predictions errors. Corrected CMAQ data are then incorporated into the modern geostatistical framework of Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME). Through cross validation it is shown that incorporating error-corrected CMAQ data leads to more accurate estimates than just using observed data by themselves.

  12. Some dynamical aspects of interacting quintessence model

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Binayak S Choudhury

    2018-03-16

    Mar 16, 2018 ... Accelerated expansion of the Universe; quintessence; dynamical system; Friedmann–Lemaitre–. Robertson–Walker ... accepted theoretical model. One of the .... Thus, quintessence loses its self-strength and gives dark matter.

  13. Modeling of truck's braking dynamics with ABS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maxym DYACHUK

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In the article some questions of ABS simulation on the basis of plane vehicle's dynamics and automatic modeling are considered. The author's algorithm of ABS modulators control is presented.

  14. Dynamic Models of Insurgent Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-05-19

    one dimension that has recently been studied in the computer science community. The model involves movement with a speed proportional to a “fear...more realistic model of human locomotion. The movement of the criminal agents follows a biased Levy flight with step sizes distributed according to a...power-law distribution. The biased Brownian motion of the original model is then derived as a special case. Starting with an agent-based model, we

  15. Stochastic population dynamic models as probability networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    M.E. and D.C. Lee. Borsuk

    2009-01-01

    The dynamics of a population and its response to environmental change depend on the balance of birth, death and age-at-maturity, and there have been many attempts to mathematically model populations based on these characteristics. Historically, most of these models were deterministic, meaning that the results were strictly determined by the equations of the model and...

  16. Development of Dynamic Spent Nuclear Fuel Environmental Effect Analysis Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, Chang Joon; Ko, Won Il; Lee, Ho Hee; Cho, Dong Keun; Park, Chang Je

    2010-07-01

    The dynamic environmental effect evaluation model for spent nuclear fuel has been developed and incorporated into the system dynamic DANESS code. First, the spent nuclear fuel isotope decay model was modeled. Then, the environmental effects were modeled through short-term decay heat model, short-term radioactivity model, and long-term heat load model. By using the developed model, the Korean once-through nuclear fuel cycles was analyzed. The once-through fuel cycle analysis was modeled based on the Korean 'National Energy Basic Plan' up to 2030 and a postulated nuclear demand growth rate until 2150. From the once-through results, it is shown that the nuclear power demand would be ∼70 GWe and the total amount of the spent fuel accumulated by 2150 would be ∼168000 t. If the disposal starts from 2060, the short-term decay heat of Cs-137 and Sr-90 isotopes are W and 1.8x10 6 W in 2100. Also, the total long-term heat load in 2100 will be 4415 MW-y. From the calculation results, it was found that the developed model is very convenient and simple for evaluation of the environmental effect of the spent nuclear fuel

  17. Modeling water scarcity over south Asia: Incorporating crop growth and irrigation models into the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Troy, Tara J.; Ines, Amor V. M.; Lall, Upmanu; Robertson, Andrew W.

    2013-04-01

    Large-scale hydrologic models, such as the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, are used for a variety of studies, from drought monitoring to projecting the potential impact of climate change on the hydrologic cycle decades in advance. The majority of these models simulates the natural hydrological cycle and neglects the effects of human activities such as irrigation, which can result in streamflow withdrawals and increased evapotranspiration. In some parts of the world, these activities do not significantly affect the hydrologic cycle, but this is not the case in south Asia where irrigated agriculture has a large water footprint. To address this gap, we incorporate a crop growth model and irrigation model into the VIC model in order to simulate the impacts of irrigated and rainfed agriculture on the hydrologic cycle over south Asia (Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra basin and peninsular India). The crop growth model responds to climate signals, including temperature and water stress, to simulate the growth of maize, wheat, rice, and millet. For the primarily rainfed maize crop, the crop growth model shows good correlation with observed All-India yields (0.7) with lower correlations for the irrigated wheat and rice crops (0.4). The difference in correlation is because irrigation provides a buffer against climate conditions, so that rainfed crop growth is more tied to climate than irrigated crop growth. The irrigation water demands induce hydrologic water stress in significant parts of the region, particularly in the Indus, with the streamflow unable to meet the irrigation demands. Although rainfall can vary significantly in south Asia, we find that water scarcity is largely chronic due to the irrigation demands rather than being intermittent due to climate variability.

  18. Bond graph modeling of nuclear reactor dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tylee, J.L.

    1981-01-01

    A tenth-order linear model of a pressurized water reactor (PWR) is developed using bond graph techniques. The model describes the nuclear heat generation process and the transfer of this heat to the reactor coolant. Comparisons between the calculated model response and test data from a small-scale PWR show the model to be an adequate representation of the actual plant dynamics. Possible application of the model in an advanced plant diagnostic system is discussed

  19. Swarm Intelligence for Urban Dynamics Modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghnemat, Rawan; Bertelle, Cyrille; Duchamp, Gerard H. E.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we propose swarm intelligence algorithms to deal with dynamical and spatial organization emergence. The goal is to model and simulate the developement of spatial centers using multi-criteria. We combine a decentralized approach based on emergent clustering mixed with spatial constraints or attractions. We propose an extension of the ant nest building algorithm with multi-center and adaptive process. Typically, this model is suitable to analyse and simulate urban dynamics like gentrification or the dynamics of the cultural equipment in urban area.

  20. Swarm Intelligence for Urban Dynamics Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghnemat, Rawan; Bertelle, Cyrille; Duchamp, Gérard H. E.

    2009-04-01

    In this paper, we propose swarm intelligence algorithms to deal with dynamical and spatial organization emergence. The goal is to model and simulate the developement of spatial centers using multi-criteria. We combine a decentralized approach based on emergent clustering mixed with spatial constraints or attractions. We propose an extension of the ant nest building algorithm with multi-center and adaptive process. Typically, this model is suitable to analyse and simulate urban dynamics like gentrification or the dynamics of the cultural equipment in urban area.

  1. Investigations of incorporating source directivity into room acoustics computer models to improve auralizations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vigeant, Michelle C.

    Room acoustics computer modeling and auralizations are useful tools when designing or modifying acoustically sensitive spaces. In this dissertation, the input parameter of source directivity has been studied in great detail to determine first its effect in room acoustics computer models and secondly how to better incorporate the directional source characteristics into these models to improve auralizations. To increase the accuracy of room acoustics computer models, the source directivity of real sources, such as musical instruments, must be included in the models. The traditional method for incorporating source directivity into room acoustics computer models involves inputting the measured static directivity data taken every 10° in a sphere-shaped pattern around the source. This data can be entered into the room acoustics software to create a directivity balloon, which is used in the ray tracing algorithm to simulate the room impulse response. The first study in this dissertation shows that using directional sources over an omni-directional source in room acoustics computer models produces significant differences both in terms of calculated room acoustics parameters and auralizations. The room acoustics computer model was also validated in terms of accurately incorporating the input source directivity. A recently proposed technique for creating auralizations using a multi-channel source representation has been investigated with numerous subjective studies, applied to both solo instruments and an orchestra. The method of multi-channel auralizations involves obtaining multi-channel anechoic recordings of short melodies from various instruments and creating individual channel auralizations. These auralizations are then combined to create a total multi-channel auralization. Through many subjective studies, this process was shown to be effective in terms of improving the realism and source width of the auralizations in a number of cases, and also modeling different

  2. Understanding and Modeling Teams As Dynamical Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorman, Jamie C.; Dunbar, Terri A.; Grimm, David; Gipson, Christina L.

    2017-01-01

    By its very nature, much of teamwork is distributed across, and not stored within, interdependent people working toward a common goal. In this light, we advocate a systems perspective on teamwork that is based on general coordination principles that are not limited to cognitive, motor, and physiological levels of explanation within the individual. In this article, we present a framework for understanding and modeling teams as dynamical systems and review our empirical findings on teams as dynamical systems. We proceed by (a) considering the question of why study teams as dynamical systems, (b) considering the meaning of dynamical systems concepts (attractors; perturbation; synchronization; fractals) in the context of teams, (c) describe empirical studies of team coordination dynamics at the perceptual-motor, cognitive-behavioral, and cognitive-neurophysiological levels of analysis, and (d) consider the theoretical and practical implications of this approach, including new kinds of explanations of human performance and real-time analysis and performance modeling. Throughout our discussion of the topics we consider how to describe teamwork using equations and/or modeling techniques that describe the dynamics. Finally, we consider what dynamical equations and models do and do not tell us about human performance in teams and suggest future research directions in this area. PMID:28744231

  3. Towards a functional model of mental disorders incorporating the laws of thermodynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, George C; McKenzie, Karen

    2013-05-01

    The current paper presents the hypothesis that the understanding of mental disorders can be advanced by incorporating the laws of thermodynamics, specifically relating to energy conservation and energy transfer. These ideas, along with the introduction of the notion that entropic activities are symptomatic of inefficient energy transfer or disorder, were used to propose a model of understanding mental ill health as resulting from the interaction of entropy, capacity and work (environmental demands). The model was applied to Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder, and was shown to be compatible with current thinking about this condition, as well as emerging models of mental disorders as complex networks. A key implication of the proposed model is that it argues that all mental disorders require a systemic functional approach, with the advantage that it offers a number of routes into the assessment, formulation and treatment for mental health problems. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Dynamical models of spiral galaxies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grosbol, P.

    1990-01-01

    The effects of changing the basic parameters of rotation curve steepness, amount of bulge, and pitch angle of the imposed spiral pattern in the galactic model of Contoupolos and Grosbel (1986) are investigated. The general conclusions of the model are confirmed and shown to be insensitive to the specific choice of parameters for the galactic potential. The exact amplitude at which the nonlinear effects at the 4:1 resonance become important do, however, depend on the model

  5. Incorporating ligament laxity in a finite element model for the upper cervical spine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lasswell, Timothy L; Cronin, Duane S; Medley, John B; Rasoulinejad, Parham

    2017-11-01

    Predicting physiological range of motion (ROM) using a finite element (FE) model of the upper cervical spine requires the incorporation of ligament laxity. The effect of ligament laxity can be observed only on a macro level of joint motion and is lost once ligaments have been dissected and preconditioned for experimental testing. As a result, although ligament laxity values are recognized to exist, specific values are not directly available in the literature for use in FE models. The purpose of the current study is to propose an optimization process that can be used to determine a set of ligament laxity values for upper cervical spine FE models. Furthermore, an FE model that includes ligament laxity is applied, and the resulting ROM values are compared with experimental data for physiological ROM, as well as experimental data for the increase in ROM when a Type II odontoid fracture is introduced. The upper cervical spine FE model was adapted from a 50th percentile male full-body model developed with the Global Human Body Models Consortium (GHBMC). FE modeling was performed in LS-DYNA and LS-OPT (Livermore Software Technology Group) was used for ligament laxity optimization. Ordinate-based curve matching was used to minimize the mean squared error (MSE) between computed load-rotation curves and experimental load-rotation curves under flexion, extension, and axial rotation with pure moment loads from 0 to 3.5 Nm. Lateral bending was excluded from the optimization because the upper cervical spine was considered to be primarily responsible for flexion, extension, and axial rotation. Based on recommendations from the literature, four varying inputs representing laxity in select ligaments were optimized to minimize the MSE. Funding was provided by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada as well as GHMBC. The present study was funded by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada to support the work of one graduate student

  6. Incorporating microbiota data into epidemiologic models: examples from vaginal microbiota research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Wijgert, Janneke H; Jespers, Vicky

    2016-05-01

    Next generation sequencing and quantitative polymerase chain reaction technologies are now widely available, and research incorporating these methods is growing exponentially. In the vaginal microbiota (VMB) field, most research to date has been descriptive. The purpose of this article is to provide an overview of different ways in which next generation sequencing and quantitative polymerase chain reaction data can be used to answer clinical epidemiologic research questions using examples from VMB research. We reviewed relevant methodological literature and VMB articles (published between 2008 and 2015) that incorporated these methodologies. VMB data have been analyzed using ecologic methods, methods that compare the presence or relative abundance of individual taxa or community compositions between different groups of women or sampling time points, and methods that first reduce the complexity of the data into a few variables followed by the incorporation of these variables into traditional biostatistical models. To make future VMB research more clinically relevant (such as studying associations between VMB compositions and clinical outcomes and the effects of interventions on the VMB), it is important that these methods are integrated with rigorous epidemiologic methods (such as appropriate study designs, sampling strategies, and adjustment for confounding). Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Energy Balance Models and Planetary Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domagal-Goldman, Shawn

    2012-01-01

    We know that planetary dynamics can have a significant affect on the climate of planets. Planetary dynamics dominate the glacial-interglacial periods on Earth, leaving a significant imprint on the geological record. They have also been demonstrated to have a driving influence on the climates of other planets in our solar system. We should therefore expect th.ere to be similar relationships on extrasolar planets. Here we describe a simple energy balance model that can predict the growth and thickness of glaciers, and their feedbacks on climate. We will also describe model changes that we have made to include planetary dynamics effects. This is the model we will use at the start of our collaboration to handle the influence of dynamics on climate.

  8. Chaotic Dynamics in Smart Grid and Suppression Scheme via Generalized Fuzzy Hyperbolic Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sun, Q.; Wang, Y.; Yang, J.; Qiu, Y.; Zhang, H.

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a method to control chaotic behavior of a typical Smart Grid based on generalized fuzzy hyperbolic model (GFHM). As more and more distributed generations (DG) are incorporated into the Smart Grid, the chaotic behavior occurs increasingly. To verify the behavior, a dynamic model

  9. Dynamical patterns of calcium signaling in a functional model of neuron-astrocyte networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Postnov, D.E.; Koreshkov, R.N.; Brazhe, N.A.

    2009-01-01

    We propose a functional mathematical model for neuron-astrocyte networks. The model incorporates elements of the tripartite synapse and the spatial branching structure of coupled astrocytes. We consider glutamate-induced calcium signaling as a specific mode of excitability and transmission...... in astrocytic-neuronal networks. We reproduce local and global dynamical patterns observed experimentally....

  10. Incorporating a prediction of postgrazing herbage mass into a whole-farm model for pasture-based dairy systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregorini, P; Galli, J; Romera, A J; Levy, G; Macdonald, K A; Fernandez, H H; Beukes, P C

    2014-07-01

    The DairyNZ whole-farm model (WFM; DairyNZ, Hamilton, New Zealand) consists of a framework that links component models for animal, pastures, crops, and soils. The model was developed to assist with analysis and design of pasture-based farm systems. New (this work) and revised (e.g., cow, pasture, crops) component models can be added to the WFM, keeping the model flexible and up to date. Nevertheless, the WFM does not account for plant-animal relationships determining herbage-depletion dynamics. The user has to preset the maximum allowable level of herbage depletion [i.e., postgrazing herbage mass (residuals)] throughout the year. Because residuals have a direct effect on herbage regrowth, the WFM in its current form does not dynamically simulate the effect of grazing pressure on herbage depletion and consequent effect on herbage regrowth. The management of grazing pressure is a key component of pasture-based dairy systems. Thus, the main objective of the present work was to develop a new version of the WFM able to predict residuals, and thereby simulate related effects of grazing pressure dynamically at the farm scale. This objective was accomplished by incorporating a new component model into the WFM. This model represents plant-animal relationships, for example sward structure and herbage intake rate, and resulting level of herbage depletion. The sensitivity of the new version of the WFM was evaluated and then the new WFM was tested against an experimental data set previously used to evaluate the WFM and to illustrate the adequacy and improvement of the model development. Key outputs variables of the new version pertinent to this work (milk production, herbage dry matter intake, intake rate, harvesting efficiency, and residuals) responded acceptably to a range of input variables. The relative prediction errors for monthly and mean annual residual predictions were 20 and 5%, respectively. Monthly predictions of residuals had a line bias (1.5%), with a proportion

  11. Brand Equity Evolution: a System Dynamics Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edson Crescitelli

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available One of the greatest challenges in brand management lies in monitoring brand equity over time. This paper aimsto present a simulation model able to represent this evolution. The model was drawn on brand equity concepts developed by Aaker and Joachimsthaler (2000, using the system dynamics methodology. The use ofcomputational dynamic models aims to create new sources of information able to sensitize academics and managers alike to the dynamic implications of their brand management. As a result, an easily implementable model was generated, capable of executing continuous scenario simulations by surveying casual relations among the variables that explain brand equity. Moreover, the existence of a number of system modeling tools will allow extensive application of the concepts used in this study in practical situations, both in professional and educational settings

  12. Discrete dynamic modeling of cellular signaling networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albert, Réka; Wang, Rui-Sheng

    2009-01-01

    Understanding signal transduction in cellular systems is a central issue in systems biology. Numerous experiments from different laboratories generate an abundance of individual components and causal interactions mediating environmental and developmental signals. However, for many signal transduction systems there is insufficient information on the overall structure and the molecular mechanisms involved in the signaling network. Moreover, lack of kinetic and temporal information makes it difficult to construct quantitative models of signal transduction pathways. Discrete dynamic modeling, combined with network analysis, provides an effective way to integrate fragmentary knowledge of regulatory interactions into a predictive mathematical model which is able to describe the time evolution of the system without the requirement for kinetic parameters. This chapter introduces the fundamental concepts of discrete dynamic modeling, particularly focusing on Boolean dynamic models. We describe this method step-by-step in the context of cellular signaling networks. Several variants of Boolean dynamic models including threshold Boolean networks and piecewise linear systems are also covered, followed by two examples of successful application of discrete dynamic modeling in cell biology.

  13. Dynamic Modelling with "MLE-Energy Dynamic" for Primary School

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giliberti, Enrico; Corni, Federico

    During the recent years simulation and modelling are growing instances in science education. In primary school, however, the main use of software is the simulation, due to the lack of modelling software tools specially designed to fit/accomplish the needs of primary education. In particular primary school teachers need to use simulation in a framework that is both consistent and simple enough to be understandable by children [2]. One of the possible area to approach modelling is about the construction of the concept of energy, in particular for what concerns the relations among substance, potential, power [3]. Following the previous initial research results with this approach [2], and with the static version of the software MLE Energy [1], we suggest the design and the experimentation of a dynamic modelling software—MLE dynamic-capable to represent dynamically the relations occurring when two substance-like quantities exchange energy, modifying their potential. By means of this software the user can graphically choose the dependent and independent variables and leave the other parameters fixed. The software has been initially evaluated, during a course of science education with a group of primary school teachers-to-be, to test the ability of the software to improve teachers' way of thinking in terms of substance-like quantities and their effects (graphical representation of the extensive, intensive variables and their mutual relations); moreover, the software has been tested with a group of primary school teachers, asking their opinion about the software didactical relevance in the class work.

  14. Teaching Genetic Counseling Skills: Incorporating a Genetic Counseling Adaptation Continuum Model to Address Psychosocial Complexity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shugar, Andrea

    2017-04-01

    Genetic counselors are trained health care professionals who effectively integrate both psychosocial counseling and information-giving into their practice. Preparing genetic counseling students for clinical practice is a challenging task, particularly when helping them develop effective and active counseling skills. Resistance to incorporating these skills may stem from decreased confidence, fear of causing harm or a lack of clarity of psycho-social goals. The author reflects on the personal challenges experienced in teaching genetic counselling students to work with psychological and social complexity, and proposes a Genetic Counseling Adaptation Continuum model and methodology to guide students in the use of advanced counseling skills.

  15. Incorporation of detailed eye model into polygon-mesh versions of ICRP-110 reference phantoms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Thang Tat; Yeom, Yeon Soo; Kim, Han Sung; Wang, Zhao Jun; Han, Min Cheol; Kim, Chan Hyeong; Lee, Jai Ki; Zankl, Maria; Petoussi-Henss, Nina; Bolch, Wesley E; Lee, Choonsik; Chung, Beom Sun

    2015-11-21

    The dose coefficients for the eye lens reported in ICRP 2010 Publication 116 were calculated using both a stylized model and the ICRP-110 reference phantoms, according to the type of radiation, energy, and irradiation geometry. To maintain consistency of lens dose assessment, in the present study we incorporated the ICRP-116 detailed eye model into the converted polygon-mesh (PM) version of the ICRP-110 reference phantoms. After the incorporation, the dose coefficients for the eye lens were calculated and compared with those of the ICRP-116 data. The results showed generally a good agreement between the newly calculated lens dose coefficients and the values of ICRP 2010 Publication 116. Significant differences were found for some irradiation cases due mainly to the use of different types of phantoms. Considering that the PM version of the ICRP-110 reference phantoms preserve the original topology of the ICRP-110 reference phantoms, it is believed that the PM version phantoms, along with the detailed eye model, provide more reliable and consistent dose coefficients for the eye lens.

  16. Model for incorporating fuel swelling and clad shrinkage effects in diffusion theory calculations (LWBR Development Program)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schick, W.C. Jr.; Milani, S.; Duncombe, E.

    1980-03-01

    A model has been devised for incorporating into the thermal feedback procedure of the PDQ few-group diffusion theory computer program the explicit calculation of depletion and temperature dependent fuel-rod shrinkage and swelling at each mesh point. The model determines the effect on reactivity of the change in hydrogen concentration caused by the variation in coolant channel area as the rods contract and expand. The calculation of fuel temperature, and hence of Doppler-broadened cross sections, is improved by correcting the heat transfer coefficient of the fuel-clad gap for the effects of clad creep, fuel densification and swelling, and release of fission-product gases into the gap. An approximate calculation of clad stress is also included in the model

  17. A Fibrocontractive Mechanochemical Model of Dermal Wound Closure Incorporating Realistic Growth Factor Kinetics

    KAUST Repository

    Murphy, Kelly E.

    2012-01-13

    Fibroblasts and their activated phenotype, myofibroblasts, are the primary cell types involved in the contraction associated with dermal wound healing. Recent experimental evidence indicates that the transformation from fibroblasts to myofibroblasts involves two distinct processes: The cells are stimulated to change phenotype by the combined actions of transforming growth factor β (TGFβ) and mechanical tension. This observation indicates a need for a detailed exploration of the effect of the strong interactions between the mechanical changes and growth factors in dermal wound healing. We review the experimental findings in detail and develop a model of dermal wound healing that incorporates these phenomena. Our model includes the interactions between TGFβ and collagenase, providing a more biologically realistic form for the growth factor kinetics than those included in previous mechanochemical descriptions. A comparison is made between the model predictions and experimental data on human dermal wound healing and all the essential features are well matched. © 2012 Society for Mathematical Biology.

  18. Developing Baltic cod recruitment models II : Incorporation of environmental variability and species interaction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Köster, Fritz; Hinrichsen, H.H.; St. John, Michael

    2001-01-01

    We investigate whether a process-oriented approach based on the results of field, laboratory, and modelling studies can be used to develop a stock-environment-recruitment model for Central Baltic cod (Gadus morhua). Based on exploratory statistical analysis, significant variables influencing...... affecting survival of eggs, predation by clupeids on eggs, larval transport, and cannibalism. Results showed that recruitment in the most important spawning area, the Bornholm Basin, during 1976-1995 was related to egg production; however, other factors affecting survival of the eggs (oxygen conditions......, predation) were also significant and when incorporated explained 69% of the variation in 0-group recruitment. In other spawning areas, variable hydrographic conditions did not allow for regular successful egg development. Hence, relatively simple models proved sufficient to predict recruitment of 0-group...

  19. Incorporating excitation-induced dephasing into the Maxwell-Bloch numerical modeling of photon echoes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burr, G.W.; Harris, Todd L.; Babbitt, Wm. Randall; Jefferson, C. Michael

    2004-01-01

    We describe the incorporation of excitation-induced dephasing (EID) into the Maxwell-Bloch numerical simulation of photon echoes. At each time step of the usual numerical integration, stochastic frequency jumps of ions--caused by excitation of neighboring ions--is modeled by convolving each Bloch vector with the Bloch vectors of nearby frequency detunings. The width of this convolution kernel follows the instantaneous change in overall population, integrated over the simulated bandwidth. This approach is validated by extensive comparison against published and original experimental results. The enhanced numerical model is then used to investigate the accuracy of experiments designed to extrapolate to the intrinsic dephasing time T 2 from data taken in the presence of EID. Such a modeling capability offers improved understanding of experimental results, and should allow quantitative analysis of engineering tradeoffs in realistic optical coherent transient applications

  20. Affordances perspective and grammaticalization: Incorporation of language, environment and users in the model of semantic paths

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Andrason

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The present paper demonstrates that insights from the affordances perspective can contribute to developing a more comprehensive model of grammaticalization. The authors argue that the grammaticalization process is afforded differently depending on the values of three contributing parameters: the factor (schematized as a qualitative-quantitative map or a wave of a gram, environment (understood as the structure of the stream along which the gram travels, and actor (narrowed to certain cognitive-epistemological capacities of the users, in particular to the fact of being a native speaker. By relating grammaticalization to these three parameters and by connecting it to the theory of optimization, the proposed model offers a better approximation to realistic cases of grammaticalization: The actor and environment are overtly incorporated into the model and divergences from canonical grammaticalization paths are both tolerated and explicable.

  1. A Fibrocontractive Mechanochemical Model of Dermal Wound Closure Incorporating Realistic Growth Factor Kinetics

    KAUST Repository

    Murphy, Kelly E.; Hall, Cameron L.; Maini, Philip K.; McCue, Scott W.; McElwain, D. L. Sean

    2012-01-01

    Fibroblasts and their activated phenotype, myofibroblasts, are the primary cell types involved in the contraction associated with dermal wound healing. Recent experimental evidence indicates that the transformation from fibroblasts to myofibroblasts involves two distinct processes: The cells are stimulated to change phenotype by the combined actions of transforming growth factor β (TGFβ) and mechanical tension. This observation indicates a need for a detailed exploration of the effect of the strong interactions between the mechanical changes and growth factors in dermal wound healing. We review the experimental findings in detail and develop a model of dermal wound healing that incorporates these phenomena. Our model includes the interactions between TGFβ and collagenase, providing a more biologically realistic form for the growth factor kinetics than those included in previous mechanochemical descriptions. A comparison is made between the model predictions and experimental data on human dermal wound healing and all the essential features are well matched. © 2012 Society for Mathematical Biology.

  2. Incorporating Yearly Derived Winter Wheat Maps Into Winter Wheat Yield Forecasting Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skakun, S.; Franch, B.; Roger, J.-C.; Vermote, E.; Becker-Reshef, I.; Justice, C.; Santamaría-Artigas, A.

    2016-01-01

    Wheat is one of the most important cereal crops in the world. Timely and accurate forecast of wheat yield and production at global scale is vital in implementing food security policy. Becker-Reshef et al. (2010) developed a generalized empirical model for forecasting winter wheat production using remote sensing data and official statistics. This model was implemented using static wheat maps. In this paper, we analyze the impact of incorporating yearly wheat masks into the forecasting model. We propose a new approach of producing in season winter wheat maps exploiting satellite data and official statistics on crop area only. Validation on independent data showed that the proposed approach reached 6% to 23% of omission error and 10% to 16% of commission error when mapping winter wheat 2-3 months before harvest. In general, we found a limited impact of using yearly winter wheat masks over a static mask for the study regions.

  3. Some considerations concerning the challenge of incorporating social variables into epidemiological models of infectious disease transmission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnett, Tony; Fournié, Guillaume; Gupta, Sunetra; Seeley, Janet

    2015-01-01

    Incorporation of 'social' variables into epidemiological models remains a challenge. Too much detail and models cease to be useful; too little and the very notion of infection - a highly social process in human populations - may be considered with little reference to the social. The French sociologist Émile Durkheim proposed that the scientific study of society required identification and study of 'social currents'. Such 'currents' are what we might today describe as 'emergent properties', specifiable variables appertaining to individuals and groups, which represent the perspectives of social actors as they experience the environment in which they live their lives. Here we review the ways in which one particular emergent property, hope, relevant to a range of epidemiological situations, might be used in epidemiological modelling of infectious diseases in human populations. We also indicate how such an approach might be extended to include a range of other potential emergent properties to represent complex social and economic processes bearing on infectious disease transmission.

  4. Dynamics of the standard model

    CERN Document Server

    Donoghue, John F; Holstein, Barry R

    2014-01-01

    Describing the fundamental theory of particle physics and its applications, this book provides a detailed account of the Standard Model, focusing on techniques that can produce information about real observed phenomena. The book begins with a pedagogic account of the Standard Model, introducing essential techniques such as effective field theory and path integral methods. It then focuses on the use of the Standard Model in the calculation of physical properties of particles. Rigorous methods are emphasized, but other useful models are also described. This second edition has been updated to include recent theoretical and experimental advances, such as the discovery of the Higgs boson. A new chapter is devoted to the theoretical and experimental understanding of neutrinos, and major advances in CP violation and electroweak physics have been given a modern treatment. This book is valuable to graduate students and researchers in particle physics, nuclear physics and related fields.

  5. Forecasting with Dynamic Regression Models

    CERN Document Server

    Pankratz, Alan

    2012-01-01

    One of the most widely used tools in statistical forecasting, single equation regression models is examined here. A companion to the author's earlier work, Forecasting with Univariate Box-Jenkins Models: Concepts and Cases, the present text pulls together recent time series ideas and gives special attention to possible intertemporal patterns, distributed lag responses of output to input series and the auto correlation patterns of regression disturbance. It also includes six case studies.

  6. Dynamic Modelling Of A SCARA Robot

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turiel, J. Perez; Calleja, R. Grossi; Diez, V. Gutierrez

    1987-10-01

    This paper describes a method for modelling industrial robots that considers dynamic approach to manipulation systems motion generation, obtaining the complete dynamic model for the mechanic part of the robot and taking into account the dynamic effect of actuators acting at the joints. For a four degree of freedom SCARA robot we obtain the dynamic model for the basic (minimal) configuration, that is, the three degrees of freedom that allow us to place the robot end effector in a desired point, using the Lagrange Method to obtain the dynamic equations in matrix form. The manipulator is considered to be a set of rigid bodies inter-connected by joints in the form of simple kinematic pairs. Then, the state space model is obtained for the actuators that move the robot joints, uniting the models of the single actuators, that is, two DC permanent magnet servomotors and an electrohydraulic actuator. Finally, using a computer simulation program written in FORTRAN language, we can compute the matrices of the complete model.

  7. Dynamic modeling of IGCC power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Casella, F.; Colonna, P.

    2012-01-01

    Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) power plants are an effective option to reduce emissions and implement carbon-dioxide sequestration. The combination of a very complex fuel-processing plant and a combined cycle power station leads to challenging problems as far as dynamic operation is concerned. Dynamic performance is extremely relevant because recent developments in the electricity market push toward an ever more flexible and varying operation of power plants. A dynamic model of the entire system and models of its sub-systems are indispensable tools in order to perform computer simulations aimed at process and control design. This paper presents the development of the lumped-parameters dynamic model of an entrained-flow gasifier, with special emphasis on the modeling approach. The model is implemented into software by means of the Modelica language and validated by comparison with one set of data related to the steady operation of the gasifier of the Buggenum power station in the Netherlands. Furthermore, in order to demonstrate the potential of the proposed modeling approach and the use of simulation for control design purposes, a complete model of an exemplary IGCC power plant, including its control system, has been developed, by re-using existing models of combined cycle plant components; the results of a load dispatch ramp simulation are presented and shortly discussed. - Highlights: ► The acausal dynamic model of an entrained gasifier has been developed. ► The model can be used to perform system optimization and control studies. ► The model has been validated using field data. ► Model use is illustrated with an example showing the transient of an IGCC plant.

  8. Automated adaptive inference of phenomenological dynamical models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniels, Bryan

    Understanding the dynamics of biochemical systems can seem impossibly complicated at the microscopic level: detailed properties of every molecular species, including those that have not yet been discovered, could be important for producing macroscopic behavior. The profusion of data in this area has raised the hope that microscopic dynamics might be recovered in an automated search over possible models, yet the combinatorial growth of this space has limited these techniques to systems that contain only a few interacting species. We take a different approach inspired by coarse-grained, phenomenological models in physics. Akin to a Taylor series producing Hooke's Law, forgoing microscopic accuracy allows us to constrain the search over dynamical models to a single dimension. This makes it feasible to infer dynamics with very limited data, including cases in which important dynamical variables are unobserved. We name our method Sir Isaac after its ability to infer the dynamical structure of the law of gravitation given simulated planetary motion data. Applying the method to output from a microscopically complicated but macroscopically simple biological signaling model, it is able to adapt the level of detail to the amount of available data. Finally, using nematode behavioral time series data, the method discovers an effective switch between behavioral attractors after the application of a painful stimulus.

  9. Dynamics of a New Strain of the H1N1 Influenza A Virus Incorporating the Effects of Repetitive Contacts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Puntani Pongsumpun

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The respiratory disease caused by the Influenza A Virus is occurring worldwide. The transmission for new strain of the H1N1 Influenza A virus is studied by formulating a SEIQR (susceptible, exposed, infected, quarantine, and recovered model to describe its spread. In the present model, we have assumed that a fraction of the infected population will die from the disease. This changes the mathematical equations governing the transmission. The effect of repetitive contact is also included in the model. Analysis of the model by using standard dynamical modeling method is given. Conditions for the stability of equilibrium state are given. Numerical solutions are presented for different values of parameters. It is found that increasing the amount of repetitive contacts leads to a decrease in the peak numbers of exposed and infectious humans. A stability analysis shows that the solutions are robust.

  10. Are adverse effects incorporated in economic models? An initial review of current practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craig, D; McDaid, C; Fonseca, T; Stock, C; Duffy, S; Woolacott, N

    2009-12-01

    To identify methodological research on the incorporation of adverse effects in economic models and to review current practice. Major electronic databases (Cochrane Methodology Register, Health Economic Evaluations Database, NHS Economic Evaluation Database, EconLit, EMBASE, Health Management Information Consortium, IDEAS, MEDLINE and Science Citation Index) were searched from inception to September 2007. Health technology assessment (HTA) reports commissioned by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) HTA programme and published between 2004 and 2007 were also reviewed. The reviews of methodological research on the inclusion of adverse effects in decision models and of current practice were carried out according to standard methods. Data were summarised in a narrative synthesis. Of the 719 potentially relevant references in the methodological research review, five met the inclusion criteria; however, they contained little information of direct relevance to the incorporation of adverse effects in models. Of the 194 HTA monographs published from 2004 to 2007, 80 were reviewed, covering a range of research and therapeutic areas. In total, 85% of the reports included adverse effects in the clinical effectiveness review and 54% of the decision models included adverse effects in the model; 49% included adverse effects in the clinical review and model. The link between adverse effects in the clinical review and model was generally weak; only 3/80 (manipulation. Of the models including adverse effects, 67% used a clinical adverse effects parameter, 79% used a cost of adverse effects parameter, 86% used one of these and 60% used both. Most models (83%) used utilities, but only two (2.5%) used solely utilities to incorporate adverse effects and were explicit that the utility captured relevant adverse effects; 53% of those models that included utilities derived them from patients on treatment and could therefore be interpreted as capturing adverse effects. In total

  11. A realistic closed-form radiobiological model of clinical tumor-control data incorporating intertumor heterogeneity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roberts, Stephen A.; Hendry, Jolyon H.

    1998-01-01

    Purpose: To investigate the role of intertumor heterogeneity in clinical tumor control datasets and the relationship to in vitro measurements of tumor biopsy samples. Specifically, to develop a modified linear-quadratic (LQ) model incorporating such heterogeneity that it is practical to fit to clinical tumor-control datasets. Methods and Materials: We developed a modified version of the linear-quadratic (LQ) model for tumor control, incorporating a (lagged) time factor to allow for tumor cell repopulation. We explicitly took into account the interpatient heterogeneity in clonogen number, radiosensitivity, and repopulation rate. Using this model, we could generate realistic TCP curves using parameter estimates consistent with those reported from in vitro studies, subject to the inclusion of a radiosensitivity (or dose)-modifying factor. We then demonstrated that the model was dominated by the heterogeneity in α (tumor radiosensitivity) and derived an approximate simplified model incorporating this heterogeneity. This simplified model is expressible in a compact closed form, which it is practical to fit to clinical datasets. Using two previously analysed datasets, we fit the model using direct maximum-likelihood techniques and obtained parameter estimates that were, again, consistent with the experimental data on the radiosensitivity of primary human tumor cells. This heterogeneity model includes the same number of adjustable parameters as the standard LQ model. Results: The modified model provides parameter estimates that can easily be reconciled with the in vitro measurements. The simplified (approximate) form of the heterogeneity model is a compact, closed-form probit function that can readily be fitted to clinical series by conventional maximum-likelihood methodology. This heterogeneity model provides a slightly better fit to the datasets than the conventional LQ model, with the same numbers of fitted parameters. The parameter estimates of the clinically

  12. Online Learning of Industrial Manipulators' Dynamics Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Polydoros, Athanasios

    2017-01-01

    , it was compared with multiple other state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms. Moreover, the thesis presents the application of the proposed learning method on robot control for achieving trajectory execution while learning the inverse dynamics models  on-the-fly . Also it is presented the application...... of the dynamics models. Those mainly derive from physics-based methods and thus they are based on physical properties which are hard to be calculated.  In this thesis, is presented, a novel online machine learning approach  which is able to model both inverse and forward dynamics models of industrial manipulators....... The proposed method belongs to the class of deep learning and exploits the concepts of self-organization, recurrent neural networks and iterative multivariate Bayesian regression. It has been evaluated on multiple datasets captured from industrial robots while they were performing various tasks. Also...

  13. Dynamic optimization deterministic and stochastic models

    CERN Document Server

    Hinderer, Karl; Stieglitz, Michael

    2016-01-01

    This book explores discrete-time dynamic optimization and provides a detailed introduction to both deterministic and stochastic models. Covering problems with finite and infinite horizon, as well as Markov renewal programs, Bayesian control models and partially observable processes, the book focuses on the precise modelling of applications in a variety of areas, including operations research, computer science, mathematics, statistics, engineering, economics and finance. Dynamic Optimization is a carefully presented textbook which starts with discrete-time deterministic dynamic optimization problems, providing readers with the tools for sequential decision-making, before proceeding to the more complicated stochastic models. The authors present complete and simple proofs and illustrate the main results with numerous examples and exercises (without solutions). With relevant material covered in four appendices, this book is completely self-contained.

  14. Dynamic modeling of the INAPRO aquaponic system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Karimanzira, Divas; Keesman, Karel J.; Kloas, Werner; Baganz, Daniela; Rauschenbach, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    The use of modeling techniques to analyze aquaponics systems is demonstrated with an example of dynamic modeling for the production of Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) and tomatoes (Solanum lycopersicon) using the innovative double recirculating aquaponic system ASTAF-PRO. For the management

  15. Dynamic spatial panels : models, methods, and inferences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elhorst, J. Paul

    This paper provides a survey of the existing literature on the specification and estimation of dynamic spatial panel data models, a collection of models for spatial panels extended to include one or more of the following variables and/or error terms: a dependent variable lagged in time, a dependent

  16. A Discrete Dynamical Model of Signed Partitions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Chiaselotti

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We use a discrete dynamical model with three evolution rules in order to analyze the structure of a partially ordered set of signed integer partitions whose main properties are actually not known. This model is related to the study of some extremal combinatorial sum problems.

  17. Dynamic Factor Models for the Volatility Surface

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van der Wel, Michel; Ozturk, Sait R.; Dijk, Dick van

    The implied volatility surface is the collection of volatilities implied by option contracts for different strike prices and time-to-maturity. We study factor models to capture the dynamics of this three-dimensional implied volatility surface. Three model types are considered to examine desirable...

  18. Dynamical modeling of surface tension

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brackbill, J.U.; Kothe, D.B.

    1996-01-01

    In a recent review it is said that free-surface flows ''represent some of the difficult remaining challenges in computational fluid dynamics''. There has been progress with the development of new approaches to treating interfaces, such as the level-set method and the improvement of older methods such as the VOF method. A common theme of many of the new developments has been the regularization of discontinuities at the interface. One example of this approach is the continuum surface force (CSF) formulation for surface tension, which replaces the surface stress given by Laplace's equation by an equivalent volume force. Here, we describe how CSF might be made more useful. Specifically, we consider a derivation of the CSF equations from a minimization of surface energy as outlined by Jacqmin. This reformulation suggests that if one eliminates the computation of curvature in terms of a unit normal vector, parasitic currents may be eliminated For this reformulation to work, it is necessary that transition region thickness be controlled. Various means for this, in addition to the one discussed by Jacqmin are discussed

  19. Incorporating remote sensing-based ET estimates into the Community Land Model version 4.5

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Wang

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Land surface models bear substantial biases in simulating surface water and energy budgets despite the continuous development and improvement of model parameterizations. To reduce model biases, Parr et al. (2015 proposed a method incorporating satellite-based evapotranspiration (ET products into land surface models. Here we apply this bias correction method to the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5 and test its performance over the conterminous US (CONUS. We first calibrate a relationship between the observational ET from the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM product and the model ET from CLM4.5, and assume that this relationship holds beyond the calibration period. During the validation or application period, a simulation using the default CLM4.5 (CLM is conducted first, and its output is combined with the calibrated observational-vs.-model ET relationship to derive a corrected ET; an experiment (CLMET is then conducted in which the model-generated ET is overwritten with the corrected ET. Using the observations of ET, runoff, and soil moisture content as benchmarks, we demonstrate that CLMET greatly improves the hydrological simulations over most of the CONUS, and the improvement is stronger in the eastern CONUS than the western CONUS and is strongest over the Southeast CONUS. For any specific region, the degree of the improvement depends on whether the relationship between observational and model ET remains time-invariant (a fundamental hypothesis of the Parr et al. (2015 method and whether water is the limiting factor in places where ET is underestimated. While the bias correction method improves hydrological estimates without improving the physical parameterization of land surface models, results from this study do provide guidance for physically based model development effort.

  20. Session 6: Dynamic Modeling and Systems Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Csank, Jeffrey; Chapman, Jeffryes; May, Ryan

    2013-01-01

    These presentations cover some of the ongoing work in dynamic modeling and dynamic systems analysis. The first presentation discusses dynamic systems analysis and how to integrate dynamic performance information into the systems analysis. The ability to evaluate the dynamic performance of an engine design may allow tradeoffs between the dynamic performance and operability of a design resulting in a more efficient engine design. The second presentation discusses the Toolbox for Modeling and Analysis of Thermodynamic Systems (T-MATS). T-MATS is a Simulation system with a library containing the basic building blocks that can be used to create dynamic Thermodynamic Systems. Some of the key features include Turbo machinery components, such as turbines, compressors, etc., and basic control system blocks. T-MAT is written in the Matlab-Simulink environment and is open source software. The third presentation focuses on getting additional performance from the engine by allowing the limit regulators only to be active when a limit is danger of being violated. Typical aircraft engine control architecture is based on MINMAX scheme, which is designed to keep engine operating within prescribed mechanical/operational safety limits. Using a conditionally active min-max limit regulator scheme, additional performance can be gained by disabling non-relevant limit regulators

  1. A constitutive mechanical model for gas hydrate bearing sediments incorporating inelastic mechanisms

    KAUST Repository

    Sánchez, Marcelo

    2016-11-30

    Gas hydrate bearing sediments (HBS) are natural soils formed in permafrost and sub-marine settings where the temperature and pressure conditions are such that gas hydrates are stable. If these conditions shift from the hydrate stability zone, hydrates dissociate and move from the solid to the gas phase. Hydrate dissociation is accompanied by significant changes in sediment structure and strongly affects its mechanical behavior (e.g., sediment stiffenss, strength and dilatancy). The mechanical behavior of HBS is very complex and its modeling poses great challenges. This paper presents a new geomechanical model for hydrate bearing sediments. The model incorporates the concept of partition stress, plus a number of inelastic mechanisms proposed to capture the complex behavior of this type of soil. This constitutive model is especially well suited to simulate the behavior of HBS upon dissociation. The model was applied and validated against experimental data from triaxial and oedometric tests conducted on manufactured and natural specimens involving different hydrate saturation, hydrate morphology, and confinement conditions. Particular attention was paid to model the HBS behavior during hydrate dissociation under loading. The model performance was highly satisfactory in all the cases studied. It managed to properly capture the main features of HBS mechanical behavior and it also assisted to interpret the behavior of this type of sediment under different loading and hydrate conditions.

  2. Incorporating vehicle mix in stimulus-response car-following models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saidi Siuhi

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to incorporate vehicle mix in stimulus-response car-following models. Separate models were estimated for acceleration and deceleration responses to account for vehicle mix via both movement state and vehicle type. For each model, three sub-models were developed for different pairs of following vehicles including “automobile following automobile,” “automobile following truck,” and “truck following automobile.” The estimated model parameters were then validated against other data from a similar region and roadway. The results indicated that drivers' behaviors were significantly different among the different pairs of following vehicles. Also the magnitude of the estimated parameters depends on the type of vehicle being driven and/or followed. These results demonstrated the need to use separate models depending on movement state and vehicle type. The differences in parameter estimates confirmed in this paper highlight traffic safety and operational issues of mixed traffic operation on a single lane. The findings of this paper can assist transportation professionals to improve traffic simulation models used to evaluate the impact of different strategies on ameliorate safety and performance of highways. In addition, driver response time lag estimates can be used in roadway design to calculate important design parameters such as stopping sight distance on horizontal and vertical curves for both automobiles and trucks.

  3. Mesoscale Models of Fluid Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boghosian, Bruce M.; Hadjiconstantinou, Nicolas G.

    During the last half century, enormous progress has been made in the field of computational materials modeling, to the extent that in many cases computational approaches are used in a predictive fashion. Despite this progress, modeling of general hydrodynamic behavior remains a challenging task. One of the main challenges stems from the fact that hydrodynamics manifests itself over a very wide range of length and time scales. On one end of the spectrum, one finds the fluid's "internal" scale characteristic of its molecular structure (in the absence of quantum effects, which we omit in this chapter). On the other end, the "outer" scale is set by the characteristic sizes of the problem's domain. The resulting scale separation or lack thereof as well as the existence of intermediate scales are key to determining the optimal approach. Successful treatments require a judicious choice of the level of description which is a delicate balancing act between the conflicting requirements of fidelity and manageable computational cost: a coarse description typically requires models for underlying processes occuring at smaller length and time scales; on the other hand, a fine-scale model will incur a significantly larger computational cost.

  4. Dynamic model for a boiling water reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muscettola, M.

    1963-07-01

    A theoretical formulation is derived for the dynamics of a boiling water reactor of the pressure tube and forced circulation type. Attention is concentrated on neutron kinetics, fuel element heat transfer dynamics, and the primary circuit - that is the boiling channel, riser, steam drum, downcomer and recirculating pump of a conventional La Mont loop. Models for the steam and feedwater plant are not derived. (author)

  5. Discontinuous Galerkin Time-Domain Modeling of Graphene Nano-Ribbon Incorporating the Spatial Dispersion Effects

    KAUST Repository

    Li, Ping; Jiang, Li Jun; Bagci, Hakan

    2018-01-01

    It is well known that graphene demonstrates spatial dispersion properties, i.e., its conductivity is nonlocal and a function of spectral wave number (momentum operator) q. In this paper, to account for effects of spatial dispersion on transmission of high speed signals along graphene nano-ribbon (GNR) interconnects, a discontinuous Galerkin time-domain (DGTD) algorithm is proposed. The atomically-thick GNR is modeled using a nonlocal transparent surface impedance boundary condition (SIBC) incorporated into the DGTD scheme. Since the conductivity is a complicated function of q (and one cannot find an analytical Fourier transform pair between q and spatial differential operators), an exact time domain SIBC model cannot be derived. To overcome this problem, the conductivity is approximated by its Taylor series in spectral domain under low-q assumption. This approach permits expressing the time domain SIBC in the form of a second-order partial differential equation (PDE) in current density and electric field intensity. To permit easy incorporation of this PDE with the DGTD algorithm, three auxiliary variables, which degenerate the second-order (temporal and spatial) differential operators to first-order ones, are introduced. Regarding to the temporal dispersion effects, the auxiliary differential equation (ADE) method is utilized to eliminates the expensive temporal convolutions. To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed scheme, numerical results, which involve characterization of spatial dispersion effects on the transfer impedance matrix of GNR interconnects, are presented.

  6. Discontinuous Galerkin Time-Domain Modeling of Graphene Nano-Ribbon Incorporating the Spatial Dispersion Effects

    KAUST Repository

    Li, Ping

    2018-04-13

    It is well known that graphene demonstrates spatial dispersion properties, i.e., its conductivity is nonlocal and a function of spectral wave number (momentum operator) q. In this paper, to account for effects of spatial dispersion on transmission of high speed signals along graphene nano-ribbon (GNR) interconnects, a discontinuous Galerkin time-domain (DGTD) algorithm is proposed. The atomically-thick GNR is modeled using a nonlocal transparent surface impedance boundary condition (SIBC) incorporated into the DGTD scheme. Since the conductivity is a complicated function of q (and one cannot find an analytical Fourier transform pair between q and spatial differential operators), an exact time domain SIBC model cannot be derived. To overcome this problem, the conductivity is approximated by its Taylor series in spectral domain under low-q assumption. This approach permits expressing the time domain SIBC in the form of a second-order partial differential equation (PDE) in current density and electric field intensity. To permit easy incorporation of this PDE with the DGTD algorithm, three auxiliary variables, which degenerate the second-order (temporal and spatial) differential operators to first-order ones, are introduced. Regarding to the temporal dispersion effects, the auxiliary differential equation (ADE) method is utilized to eliminates the expensive temporal convolutions. To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed scheme, numerical results, which involve characterization of spatial dispersion effects on the transfer impedance matrix of GNR interconnects, are presented.

  7. Incorporating networks in a probabilistic graphical model to find drivers for complex human diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mezlini, Aziz M; Goldenberg, Anna

    2017-10-01

    Discovering genetic mechanisms driving complex diseases is a hard problem. Existing methods often lack power to identify the set of responsible genes. Protein-protein interaction networks have been shown to boost power when detecting gene-disease associations. We introduce a Bayesian framework, Conflux, to find disease associated genes from exome sequencing data using networks as a prior. There are two main advantages to using networks within a probabilistic graphical model. First, networks are noisy and incomplete, a substantial impediment to gene discovery. Incorporating networks into the structure of a probabilistic models for gene inference has less impact on the solution than relying on the noisy network structure directly. Second, using a Bayesian framework we can keep track of the uncertainty of each gene being associated with the phenotype rather than returning a fixed list of genes. We first show that using networks clearly improves gene detection compared to individual gene testing. We then show consistently improved performance of Conflux compared to the state-of-the-art diffusion network-based method Hotnet2 and a variety of other network and variant aggregation methods, using randomly generated and literature-reported gene sets. We test Hotnet2 and Conflux on several network configurations to reveal biases and patterns of false positives and false negatives in each case. Our experiments show that our novel Bayesian framework Conflux incorporates many of the advantages of the current state-of-the-art methods, while offering more flexibility and improved power in many gene-disease association scenarios.

  8. Advanced Methods for Incorporating Solar Energy Technologies into Electric Sector Capacity-Expansion Models: Literature Review and Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sullivan, P.; Eurek, K.; Margolis, R.

    2014-07-01

    Because solar power is a rapidly growing component of the electricity system, robust representations of solar technologies should be included in capacity-expansion models. This is a challenge because modeling the electricity system--and, in particular, modeling solar integration within that system--is a complex endeavor. This report highlights the major challenges of incorporating solar technologies into capacity-expansion models and shows examples of how specific models address those challenges. These challenges include modeling non-dispatchable technologies, determining which solar technologies to model, choosing a spatial resolution, incorporating a solar resource assessment, and accounting for solar generation variability and uncertainty.

  9. Progress and problems in modelling HTR core dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scherer, W.; Gerwin, H.

    1991-01-01

    In recent years greater effort has been made to establish theoretical models for HTR core dynamics. At KFA Juelich the TINTE (TIme dependent Neutronics and TEmperatures) code system has been developed, which is able to model the primary circuit of an HTR plant using modern numerical techniques and taking into account the mutual interference of the relevant physical variables. The HTR core is treated in 2-D R-Z geometry for both nucleonics and thermo-fluid-dynamics. 2-energy-group diffusion theory is used in the nuclear part including 6 groups of delayed neutron precursors and 14 groups of decay heat producers. Local and non-local heat sources are incorporated, thus simulating gamma ray transport. The thermo-fluid-dynamics module accounts for heterogeneity effects due to the pebble bed structure. Pipes and other components of the primary loop are modelled in 1-D geometry. Forced convection may be treated as well as natural convection in case of blower breakdown accidents. Validation of TINTE has started using the results of a comprehensive experimental program that has been performed at the Arbeitsgemeinschaft Versuchsreaktor GmbH (AVR) high temperature pebble bed reactor at Juelich. In the frame of this program power transients were initiated by varying the helium blower rotational speed or by moving the control rods. In most cases a good accordance between experiment and calculation was found. Problems in modelling the special AVR reactor geometry in two dimensions are described and suggestions for overcoming the uncertainties of experimentally determined control rod reactivities are given. The influence of different polynomial expansions of xenon cross sections to long term transients is discussed together with effects of burnup during that time. Up to now the TINTE code has proven its general applicability to operational core transients of HTR. The effects of water ingress on reactivity, fuel element corrosion and cooling gas properties are now being

  10. A dynamical model for multifragmentation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ngo, H.; Ighezou, F.Z.; Ngo, C.

    1999-01-01

    The surface multifragmentation of highly excited (compression and thermal excitation) 208 Pb is investigated with a finite temperature spherical TDHF approximation coupled to a restructured aggregation model. This approach is discussed in terms of the data available from ALADIN collaboration at GSI on gold ion induced reactions on C, Al and Cu targets at 600 MeV/u excitation energy. The calculation showed that the slowest fragments originate in the nuclear volume while the smaller, faster fragments are emitted from surface

  11. A New Paradigm For Modeling Fault Zone Inelasticity: A Multiscale Continuum Framework Incorporating Spontaneous Localization and Grain Fragmentation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elbanna, A. E.

    2015-12-01

    The brittle portion of the crust contains structural features such as faults, jogs, joints, bends and cataclastic zones that span a wide range of length scales. These features may have a profound effect on earthquake nucleation, propagation and arrest. Incorporating these existing features in modeling and the ability to spontaneously generate new one in response to earthquake loading is crucial for predicting seismicity patterns, distribution of aftershocks and nucleation sites, earthquakes arrest mechanisms, and topological changes in the seismogenic zone structure. Here, we report on our efforts in modeling two important mechanisms contributing to the evolution of fault zone topology: (1) Grain comminution at the submeter scale, and (2) Secondary faulting/plasticity at the scale of few to hundreds of meters. We use the finite element software Abaqus to model the dynamic rupture. The constitutive response of the fault zone is modeled using the Shear Transformation Zone theory, a non-equilibrium statistical thermodynamic framework for modeling plastic deformation and localization in amorphous materials such as fault gouge. The gouge layer is modeled as 2D plane strain region with a finite thickness and heterogeenous distribution of porosity. By coupling the amorphous gouge with the surrounding elastic bulk, the model introduces a set of novel features that go beyond the state of the art. These include: (1) self-consistent rate dependent plasticity with a physically-motivated set of internal variables, (2) non-locality that alleviates mesh dependence of shear band formation, (3) spontaneous evolution of fault roughness and its strike which affects ground motion generation and the local stress fields, and (4) spontaneous evolution of grain size and fault zone fabric.

  12. Nonlinear Dynamic Models in Advanced Life Support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Harry

    2002-01-01

    To facilitate analysis, ALS systems are often assumed to be linear and time invariant, but they usually have important nonlinear and dynamic aspects. Nonlinear dynamic behavior can be caused by time varying inputs, changes in system parameters, nonlinear system functions, closed loop feedback delays, and limits on buffer storage or processing rates. Dynamic models are usually cataloged according to the number of state variables. The simplest dynamic models are linear, using only integration, multiplication, addition, and subtraction of the state variables. A general linear model with only two state variables can produce all the possible dynamic behavior of linear systems with many state variables, including stability, oscillation, or exponential growth and decay. Linear systems can be described using mathematical analysis. Nonlinear dynamics can be fully explored only by computer simulations of models. Unexpected behavior is produced by simple models having only two or three state variables with simple mathematical relations between them. Closed loop feedback delays are a major source of system instability. Exceeding limits on buffer storage or processing rates forces systems to change operating mode. Different equilibrium points may be reached from different initial conditions. Instead of one stable equilibrium point, the system may have several equilibrium points, oscillate at different frequencies, or even behave chaotically, depending on the system inputs and initial conditions. The frequency spectrum of an output oscillation may contain harmonics and the sums and differences of input frequencies, but it may also contain a stable limit cycle oscillation not related to input frequencies. We must investigate the nonlinear dynamic aspects of advanced life support systems to understand and counter undesirable behavior.

  13. System Dynamics Modeling of Multipurpose Reservoir Operation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ebrahim Momeni

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available System dynamics, a feedback – based object – oriented simulation approach, not only represents complex dynamic systemic systems in a realistic way but also allows the involvement of end users in model development to increase their confidence in modeling process. The increased speed of model development, the possibility of group model development, the effective communication of model results, and the trust developed in the model due to user participation are the main strengths of this approach. The ease of model modification in response to changes in the system and the ability to perform sensitivity analysis make this approach more attractive compared with systems analysis techniques for modeling water management systems. In this study, a system dynamics model was developed for the Zayandehrud basin in central Iran. This model contains river basin, dam reservoir, plains, irrigation systems, and groundwater. Current operation rule is conjunctive use of ground and surface water. Allocation factor for each irrigation system is computed based on the feedback from groundwater storage in its zone. Deficit water is extracted from groundwater.The results show that applying better rules can not only satisfy all demands such as Gawkhuni swamp environmental demand, but it can also  prevent groundwater level drawdown in future.

  14. A MULTI-RESOLUTION FUSION MODEL INCORPORATING COLOR AND ELEVATION FOR SEMANTIC SEGMENTATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Zhang

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, the developments for Fully Convolutional Networks (FCN have led to great improvements for semantic segmentation in various applications including fused remote sensing data. There is, however, a lack of an in-depth study inside FCN models which would lead to an understanding of the contribution of individual layers to specific classes and their sensitivity to different types of input data. In this paper, we address this problem and propose a fusion model incorporating infrared imagery and Digital Surface Models (DSM for semantic segmentation. The goal is to utilize heterogeneous data more accurately and effectively in a single model instead of to assemble multiple models. First, the contribution and sensitivity of layers concerning the given classes are quantified by means of their recall in FCN. The contribution of different modalities on the pixel-wise prediction is then analyzed based on visualization. Finally, an optimized scheme for the fusion of layers with color and elevation information into a single FCN model is derived based on the analysis. Experiments are performed on the ISPRS Vaihingen 2D Semantic Labeling dataset. Comprehensive evaluations demonstrate the potential of the proposed approach.

  15. Developing a stochastic parameterization to incorporate plant trait variability into ecohydrologic modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, S.; Ng, G. H. C.

    2017-12-01

    The global plant database has revealed that plant traits can vary more within a plant functional type (PFT) than among different PFTs, indicating that the current paradigm in ecohydrogical models of specifying fixed parameters based solely on plant functional type (PFT) could potentially bias simulations. Although some recent modeling studies have attempted to incorporate this observed plant trait variability, many failed to consider uncertainties due to sparse global observation, or they omitted spatial and/or temporal variability in the traits. Here we present a stochastic parameterization for prognostic vegetation simulations that are stochastic in time and space in order to represent plant trait plasticity - the process by which trait differences arise. We have developed the new PFT parameterization within the Community Land Model 4.5 (CLM 4.5) and tested the method for a desert shrubland watershed in the Mojave Desert, where fixed parameterizations cannot represent acclimation to desert conditions. Spatiotemporally correlated plant trait parameters were first generated based on TRY statistics and were then used to implement ensemble runs for the study area. The new PFT parameterization was then further conditioned on field measurements of soil moisture and remotely sensed observations of leaf-area-index to constrain uncertainties in the sparse global database. Our preliminary results show that incorporating data-conditioned, variable PFT parameterizations strongly affects simulated soil moisture and water fluxes, compared with default simulations. The results also provide new insights about correlations among plant trait parameters and between traits and environmental conditions in the desert shrubland watershed. Our proposed stochastic PFT parameterization method for ecohydrological models has great potential in advancing our understanding of how terrestrial ecosystems are predicted to adapt to variable environmental conditions.

  16. A model to incorporate organ deformation in the evaluation of dose/volume relationship

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yan, D.; Jaffray, D.; Wong, J.; Brabbins, D.; Martinez, A. A.

    1997-01-01

    Purpose: Measurements of internal organ motion have demonstrated that daily organ deformation exists during the course of radiation treatment. However, a model to evaluate the resultant dose delivered to a daily deformed organ remains a difficult challenge. Current methods which model such organ deformation as rigid body motion in the dose calculation for treatment planning evaluation are incorrect and misleading. In this study, a new model for treatment planning evaluation is introduced which incorporates patient specific information of daily organ deformation and setup variation. The model was also used to retrospectively analyze the actual treatment data measured using daily CT scans for 5 patients with prostate treatment. Methods and Materials: The model assumes that for each patient, the organ of interest can be measured during the first few treatment days. First, the volume of each organ is delineated from each of the daily measurements and cumulated in a 3D bit-map. A tissue occupancy distribution is then constructed with the 50% isodensity representing the mean, or effective, organ volume. During the course of treatment, each voxel in the effective organ volume is assumed to move inside a local 3D neighborhood with a specific distribution function. The neighborhood and the distribution function are deduced from the positions and shapes of the organ in the first few measurements using the biomechanics model of viscoelastic body. For each voxel, the local distribution function is then convolved with the spatial dose distribution. The latter includes also the variation in dose due to daily setup error. As a result, the cumulative dose to the voxel incorporates the effects of daily setup variation and organ deformation. A ''variation adjusted'' dose volume histogram, aDVH, for the effective organ volume can then be constructed for the purpose of treatment evaluation and optimization. Up to 20 daily CT scans and daily portal images for 5 patients with prostate

  17. Modeling and identification in structural dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Jayakumar, Paramsothy

    1987-01-01

    Analytical modeling of structures subjected to ground motions is an important aspect of fully dynamic earthquake-resistant design. In general, linear models are only sufficient to represent structural responses resulting from earthquake motions of small amplitudes. However, the response of structures during strong ground motions is highly nonlinear and hysteretic. System identification is an effective tool for developing analytical models from experimental data. Testing of full-scale prot...

  18. Feature Extraction for Structural Dynamics Model Validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farrar, Charles [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Nishio, Mayuko [Yokohama University; Hemez, Francois [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Stull, Chris [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Park, Gyuhae [Chonnam Univesity; Cornwell, Phil [Rose-Hulman Institute of Technology; Figueiredo, Eloi [Universidade Lusófona; Luscher, D. J. [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Worden, Keith [University of Sheffield

    2016-01-13

    As structural dynamics becomes increasingly non-modal, stochastic and nonlinear, finite element model-updating technology must adopt the broader notions of model validation and uncertainty quantification. For example, particular re-sampling procedures must be implemented to propagate uncertainty through a forward calculation, and non-modal features must be defined to analyze nonlinear data sets. The latter topic is the focus of this report, but first, some more general comments regarding the concept of model validation will be discussed.

  19. Aggregated Residential Load Modeling Using Dynamic Bayesian Networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vlachopoulou, Maria; Chin, George; Fuller, Jason C.; Lu, Shuai

    2014-09-28

    Abstract—It is already obvious that the future power grid will have to address higher demand for power and energy, and to incorporate renewable resources of different energy generation patterns. Demand response (DR) schemes could successfully be used to manage and balance power supply and demand under operating conditions of the future power grid. To achieve that, more advanced tools for DR management of operations and planning are necessary that can estimate the available capacity from DR resources. In this research, a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) is derived, trained, and tested that can model aggregated load of Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems. DBNs can provide flexible and powerful tools for both operations and planing, due to their unique analytical capabilities. The DBN model accuracy and flexibility of use is demonstrated by testing the model under different operational scenarios.

  20. Record Dynamics and the Parking Lot Model for granular dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sibani, Paolo; Boettcher, Stefan

    Also known for its application to granular compaction (E. Ben-Naim et al., Physica D, 1998), the Parking Lot Model (PLM) describes the random parking of identical cars in a strip with no marked bays. In the thermally activated version considered, cars can be removed at an energy cost and, in thermal equilibrium, their average density increases as temperature decreases. However, equilibration at high density becomes exceedingly slow and the system enters an aging regime induced by a kinematic constraint, the fact that parked cars may not overlap. As parking an extra car reduces the available free space,the next parking event is even harder to achieve. Records in the number of parked cars mark the salient features of the dynamics and are shown to be well described by the log-Poisson statistics known from other glassy systems with record dynamics. Clusters of cars whose positions must be rearranged to make the next insertion possible have a length scale which grows logarithmically with age, while their life-time grows exponentially with size. The implications for a recent cluster model of colloidal dynamics,(S. Boettcher and P. Sibani, J. Phys.: Cond. Matter, 2011 N. Becker et al., J. Phys.: Cond. Matter, 2014) are discussed. Support rom the Villum Foundation is gratefully acknowledged.

  1. Monitoring Replication Protein A (RPA) dynamics in homologous recombination through site-specific incorporation of non-canonical amino acids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pokhrel, Nilisha; Origanti, Sofia; Davenport, Eric Parker; Gandhi, Disha; Kaniecki, Kyle; Mehl, Ryan A; Greene, Eric C; Dockendorff, Chris; Antony, Edwin

    2017-09-19

    An essential coordinator of all DNA metabolic processes is Replication Protein A (RPA). RPA orchestrates these processes by binding to single-stranded DNA (ssDNA) and interacting with several other DNA binding proteins. Determining the real-time kinetics of single players such as RPA in the presence of multiple DNA processors to better understand the associated mechanistic events is technically challenging. To overcome this hurdle, we utilized non-canonical amino acids and bio-orthogonal chemistry to site-specifically incorporate a chemical fluorophore onto a single subunit of heterotrimeric RPA. Upon binding to ssDNA, this fluorescent RPA (RPAf) generates a quantifiable change in fluorescence, thus serving as a reporter of its dynamics on DNA in the presence of multiple other DNA binding proteins. Using RPAf, we describe the kinetics of facilitated self-exchange and exchange by Rad51 and mediator proteins during various stages in homologous recombination. RPAf is widely applicable to investigate its mechanism of action in processes such as DNA replication, repair and telomere maintenance. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

  2. Modeling the dynamics of dissent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Eun; Holme, Petter; Lee, Sang Hoon

    2017-11-01

    We investigate the formation of opinion against authority in an authoritarian society composed of agents with different levels of authority. We explore a ;dissenting; opinion, held by lower-ranking, obedient, or less authoritative people, spreading in an environment of an ;affirmative; opinion held by authoritative leaders. A real-world example would be a corrupt society where people revolt against such leaders, but it can be applied to more general situations. In our model, agents can change their opinion depending on their authority relative to their neighbors and their own confidence level. In addition, with a certain probability, agents can override the affirmative opinion to take the dissenting opinion of a neighbor. Based on analytic derivation and numerical simulations, we observe that both the network structure and heterogeneity in authority, and their correlation, significantly affect the possibility of the dissenting opinion to spread through the population. In particular, the dissenting opinion is suppressed when the authority distribution is very heterogeneous and there exists a positive correlation between the authority and the number of neighbors of people (degree). Except for such an extreme case, though, spreading of the dissenting opinion takes place when people have the tendency to override the authority to hold the dissenting opinion, but the dissenting opinion can take a long time to spread to the entire society, depending on the model parameters. We argue that the internal social structure of agents sets the scale of the time to reach consensus, based on the analysis of the underlying structural properties of opinion spreading.

  3. Modeling Dynamic Regulatory Processes in Stroke

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDermott, Jason E.; Jarman, Kenneth; Taylor, Ronald; Lancaster, Mary; Shankaran, Harish; Vartanian, Keri B.; Stevens, Susan L.; Stenzel-Poore, Mary P.; Sanfilippo, Antonio

    2012-01-01

    The ability to examine the behavior of biological systems in silico has the potential to greatly accelerate the pace of discovery in diseases, such as stroke, where in vivo analysis is time intensive and costly. In this paper we describe an approach for in silico examination of responses of the blood transcriptome to neuroprotective agents and subsequent stroke through the development of dynamic models of the regulatory processes observed in the experimental gene expression data. First, we identified functional gene clusters from these data. Next, we derived ordinary differential equations (ODEs) from the data relating these functional clusters to each other in terms of their regulatory influence on one another. Dynamic models were developed by coupling these ODEs into a model that simulates the expression of regulated functional clusters. By changing the magnitude of gene expression in the initial input state it was possible to assess the behavior of the networks through time under varying conditions since the dynamic model only requires an initial starting state, and does not require measurement of regulatory influences at each time point in order to make accurate predictions. We discuss the implications of our models on neuroprotection in stroke, explore the limitations of the approach, and report that an optimized dynamic model can provide accurate predictions of overall system behavior under several different neuroprotective paradigms. PMID:23071432

  4. Coupling population dynamics with earth system models: the POPEM model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navarro, Andrés; Moreno, Raúl; Jiménez-Alcázar, Alfonso; Tapiador, Francisco J

    2017-09-16

    Precise modeling of CO 2 emissions is important for environmental research. This paper presents a new model of human population dynamics that can be embedded into ESMs (Earth System Models) to improve climate modeling. Through a system dynamics approach, we develop a cohort-component model that successfully simulates historical population dynamics with fine spatial resolution (about 1°×1°). The population projections are used to improve the estimates of CO 2 emissions, thus transcending the bulk approach of existing models and allowing more realistic non-linear effects to feature in the simulations. The module, dubbed POPEM (from Population Parameterization for Earth Models), is compared with current emission inventories and validated against UN aggregated data. Finally, it is shown that the module can be used to advance toward fully coupling the social and natural components of the Earth system, an emerging research path for environmental science and pollution research.

  5. Benefits of incorporating spatial organisation of catchments for a semi-distributed hydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schumann, Andreas; Oppel, Henning

    2017-04-01

    To represent the hydrological behaviour of catchments a model should reproduce/reflect the hydrologically most relevant catchment characteristics. These are heterogeneously distributed within a watershed but often interrelated and subject of a certain spatial organisation. Since common models are mostly based on fundamental assumptions about hydrological processes, the reduction of variance of catchment properties as well as the incorporation of the spatial organisation of the catchment is desirable. We have developed a method that combines the idea of the width-function used for determination of the geomorphologic unit hydrograph with information about soil or topography. With this method we are able to assess the spatial organisation of selected catchment characteristics. An algorithm was developed that structures a watershed into sub-basins and other spatial units to minimise its heterogeneity. The outcomes of this algorithm are used for the spatial setup of a semi-distributed model. Since the spatial organisation of a catchment is not bound to a single characteristic, we have to embed information of multiple catchment properties. For this purpose we applied a fuzzy-based method to combine the spatial setup for multiple single characteristics into a union, optimal spatial differentiation. Utilizing this method, we are able to propose a spatial structure for a semi-distributed hydrological model, comprising the definition of sub-basins and a zonal classification within each sub-basin. Besides the improved spatial structuring, the performed analysis ameliorates modelling in another way. The spatial variability of catchment characteristics, which is considered by a minimum of heterogeneity in the zones, can be considered in a parameter constrained calibration scheme in a case study both options were used to explore the benefits of incorporating the spatial organisation and derived parameter constraints for the parametrisation of a HBV-96 model. We use two benchmark

  6. Dynamical properties of the Rabi model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu, Binglu; Zhou, Huili; Chen, Shujie; Xianlong, Gao; Wang, Kelin

    2017-01-01

    We study the dynamical properties of the quantum Rabi model using a systematic expansion method. Based on the observation that the parity symmetry of the Rabi model is kept during evolution of the states, we decompose the initial state and the time-dependent one into positive and negative parity parts expanded by superposition of the coherent states. The evolutions of the corresponding positive and the negative parities are obtained, in which the expansion coefficients in the dynamical equations are known from the derived recurrence relation. (paper)

  7. Simulation of Forest Carbon Fluxes Using Model Incorporation and Data Assimilation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Min Yan

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available This study improved simulation of forest carbon fluxes in the Changbai Mountains with a process-based model (Biome-BGC using incorporation and data assimilation. Firstly, the original remote sensing-based MODIS MOD_17 GPP (MOD_17 model was optimized using refined input data and biome-specific parameters. The key ecophysiological parameters of the Biome-BGC model were determined through the Extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (EFAST sensitivity analysis. Then the optimized MOD_17 model was used to calibrate the Biome-BGC model by adjusting the sensitive ecophysiological parameters. Once the best match was found for the 10 selected forest plots for the 8-day GPP estimates from the optimized MOD_17 and from the Biome-BGC, the values of sensitive ecophysiological parameters were determined. The calibrated Biome-BGC model agreed better with the eddy covariance (EC measurements (R2 = 0.87, RMSE = 1.583 gC·m−2·d−1 than the original model did (R2 = 0.72, RMSE = 2.419 gC·m−2·d−1. To provide a best estimate of the true state of the model, the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF was used to assimilate five years (of eight-day periods between 2003 and 2007 of Global LAnd Surface Satellite (GLASS LAI products into the calibrated Biome-BGC model. The results indicated that LAI simulated through the assimilated Biome-BGC agreed well with GLASS LAI. GPP performances obtained from the assimilated Biome-BGC were further improved and verified by EC measurements at the Changbai Mountains forest flux site (R2 = 0.92, RMSE = 1.261 gC·m−2·d−1.

  8. Incorporating social groups' responses in a descriptive model for second- and higher-order impact identification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sutheerawatthana, Pitch; Minato, Takayuki

    2010-01-01

    The response of a social group is a missing element in the formal impact assessment model. Previous discussion of the involvement of social groups in an intervention has mainly focused on the formation of the intervention. This article discusses the involvement of social groups in a different way. A descriptive model is proposed by incorporating a social group's response into the concept of second- and higher-order effects. The model is developed based on a cause-effect relationship through the observation of phenomena in case studies. The model clarifies the process by which social groups interact with a lower-order effect and then generate a higher-order effect in an iterative manner. This study classifies social groups' responses into three forms-opposing, modifying, and advantage-taking action-and places them in six pathways. The model is expected to be used as an analytical tool for investigating and identifying impacts in the planning stage and as a framework for monitoring social groups' responses during the implementation stage of a policy, plan, program, or project (PPPPs).

  9. Incorporating plant fossil data into species distribution models is not straightforward: Pitfalls and possible solutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno-Amat, Elena; Rubiales, Juan Manuel; Morales-Molino, César; García-Amorena, Ignacio

    2017-08-01

    The increasing development of species distribution models (SDMs) using palaeodata has created new prospects to address questions of evolution, ecology and biogeography from wider perspectives. Palaeobotanical data provide information on the past distribution of taxa at a given time and place and its incorporation on modelling has contributed to advancing the SDM field. This has allowed, for example, to calibrate models under past climate conditions or to validate projected models calibrated on current species distributions. However, these data also bear certain shortcomings when used in SDMs that may hinder the resulting ecological outcomes and eventually lead to misleading conclusions. Palaeodata may not be equivalent to present data, but instead frequently exhibit limitations and biases regarding species representation, taxonomy and chronological control, and their inclusion in SDMs should be carefully assessed. The limitations of palaeobotanical data applied to SDM studies are infrequently discussed and often neglected in the modelling literature; thus, we argue for the more careful selection and control of these data. We encourage authors to use palaeobotanical data in their SDMs studies and for doing so, we propose some recommendations to improve the robustness, reliability and significance of palaeo-SDM analyses.

  10. Dynamic Modeling of ThermoFluid Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jakob Munch

    2003-01-01

    The objective of the present study has been to developed dynamic models for two-phase flow in pipes (evaporation and condensation). Special attention has been given to modeling evaporators for refrigeration plant particular dry-expansion evaporators. Models of different complexity have been...... formulated. The different models deviate with respect to the detail¿s included and calculation time in connection with simulation. The models have been implemented in a new library named ThermoTwoPhase to the programming language Modelica. A test rig has been built with an evaporator instrumented in a way...

  11. Research on nonlinear stochastic dynamical price model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Jiaorui; Xu Wei; Xie Wenxian; Ren Zhengzheng

    2008-01-01

    In consideration of many uncertain factors existing in economic system, nonlinear stochastic dynamical price model which is subjected to Gaussian white noise excitation is proposed based on deterministic model. One-dimensional averaged Ito stochastic differential equation for the model is derived by using the stochastic averaging method, and applied to investigate the stability of the trivial solution and the first-passage failure of the stochastic price model. The stochastic price model and the methods presented in this paper are verified by numerical studies

  12. Modelling environmental dynamics. Advances in goematic solutions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paegelow, Martin [Toulouse-2 Univ., 31 (France). GEODE UMR 5602 CNRS; Camacho Olmedo, Maria Teresa (eds.) [Granada Univ (Spain). Dpto. de Analisis Geografico Regional y Geografia Fisica

    2008-07-01

    Modelling environmental dynamics is critical to understanding and predicting the evolution of the environment in response to the large number of influences including urbanisation, climate change and deforestation. Simulation and modelling provide support for decision making in environmental management. The first chapter introduces terminology and provides an overview of methodological modelling approaches which may be applied to environmental and complex dynamics. Based on this introduction this book illustrates various models applied to a large variety of themes: deforestation in tropical regions, fire risk, natural reforestation in European mountains, agriculture, biodiversity, urbanism, climate change and land management for decision support, etc. These case studies, provided by a large international spectrum of researchers and presented in a uniform structure, focus particularly on methods and model validation so that this book is not only aimed at researchers and graduates but also at professionals. (orig.)

  13. Modeling emotional dynamics : currency versus field.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sallach, D .L.; Decision and Information Sciences; Univ. of Chicago

    2008-08-01

    Randall Collins has introduced a simplified model of emotional dynamics in which emotional energy, heightened and focused by interaction rituals, serves as a common denominator for social exchange: a generic form of currency, except that it is active in a far broader range of social transactions. While the scope of this theory is attractive, the specifics of the model remain unconvincing. After a critical assessment of the currency theory of emotion, a field model of emotion is introduced that adds expressiveness by locating emotional valence within its cognitive context, thereby creating an integrated orientation field. The result is a model which claims less in the way of motivational specificity, but is more satisfactory in modeling the dynamic interaction between cognitive and emotional orientations at both individual and social levels.

  14. Modeling opinion dynamics: Theoretical analysis and continuous approximation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pinasco, Juan Pablo; Semeshenko, Viktoriya; Balenzuela, Pablo

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • We study a simple model of persuasion dynamics with long range pairwise interactions. • The continuous limit of the master equation is a nonlinear, nonlocal, first order partial differential equation. • We compute the analytical solutions to this equation, and compare them with the simulations of the dynamics. - Abstract: Frequently we revise our first opinions after talking over with other individuals because we get convinced. Argumentation is a verbal and social process aimed at convincing. It includes conversation and persuasion and the agreement is reached because the new arguments are incorporated. Given the wide range of opinion formation mathematical approaches, there are however no models of opinion dynamics with nonlocal pair interactions analytically solvable. In this paper we present a novel analytical framework developed to solve the master equations with non-local kernels. For this we used a simple model of opinion formation where individuals tend to get more similar after each interactions, no matter their opinion differences, giving rise to nonlinear differential master equation with non-local terms. Simulation results show an excellent agreement with results obtained by the theoretical estimation.

  15. Dynamic simulation of sustainable farm development scenarios using cognitive modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tuzhyk Kateryna

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Dynamic simulation of sustainable farm development scenarios using cognitive modeling. The paper presents a dynamic simulation system of sustainable development scenarios on farms using cognitive modeling. The system incorporates relevant variables which affect the sustainable development of farms. Its user provides answers to strategic issues connected with the level of farm sustainability over a long-term perspective of dynamic development. The work contains a description of the model structure as well as the results of simulations carried out on 16 farms in northern Ukraine. The results show that the process of sustainability is based mainly on the potential for innovation in agricultural production and biodiversity. The user is able to simulate various scenarios for the sustainable development of a farm and visualize the influence of factors on the economic and social situation, as well as on environmental aspects. Upon carrying out a series of simulations, it was determined that the development of farms characterized by sustainable development is based on additional profit, which serves as the main motivation for transforming a conventional farm into a sustainable one. Nevertheless, additional profit is not the only driving force in the system of sustainable development. The standard of living, market condition, and legal regulations as well as government support also play a significant motivational role.

  16. A generalized linear-quadratic model incorporating reciprocal time pattern of radiation damage repair

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Zhibin; Mayr, Nina A.; Lo, Simon S.; Wang, Jian Z.; Jia Guang; Yuh, William T. C.; Johnke, Roberta

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: It has been conventionally assumed that the repair rate for sublethal damage (SLD) remains constant during the entire radiation course. However, increasing evidence from animal studies suggest that this may not the case. Rather, it appears that the repair rate for radiation-induced SLD slows down with increasing time. Such a slowdown in repair would suggest that the exponential repair pattern would not necessarily accurately predict repair process. As a result, the purpose of this study was to investigate a new generalized linear-quadratic (LQ) model incorporating a repair pattern with reciprocal time. The new formulas were tested with published experimental data. Methods: The LQ model has been widely used in radiation therapy, and the parameter G in the surviving fraction represents the repair process of sublethal damage with T r as the repair half-time. When a reciprocal pattern of repair process was adopted, a closed form of G was derived analytically for arbitrary radiation schemes. The published animal data adopted to test the reciprocal formulas. Results: A generalized LQ model to describe the repair process in a reciprocal pattern was obtained. Subsequently, formulas for special cases were derived from this general form. The reciprocal model showed a better fit to the animal data than the exponential model, particularly for the ED50 data (reduced χ 2 min of 2.0 vs 4.3, p = 0.11 vs 0.006), with the following gLQ parameters: α/β = 2.6-4.8 Gy, T r = 3.2-3.9 h for rat feet skin, and α/β = 0.9 Gy, T r = 1.1 h for rat spinal cord. Conclusions: These results of repair process following a reciprocal time suggest that the generalized LQ model incorporating the reciprocal time of sublethal damage repair shows a better fit than the exponential repair model. These formulas can be used to analyze the experimental and clinical data, where a slowing-down repair process appears during the course of radiation therapy.

  17. Petroacoustic Modelling of Heterolithic Sandstone Reservoirs: A Novel Approach to Gassmann Modelling Incorporating Sedimentological Constraints and NMR Porosity data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, S.; Lovell, M.; Davies, S. J.; Pritchard, T.; Sirju, C.; Abdelkarim, A.

    2012-12-01

    Heterolithic or 'shaly' sandstone reservoirs constitute a significant proportion of hydrocarbon resources. Petroacoustic models (a combination of petrophysics and rock physics) enhance the ability to extract reservoir properties from seismic data, providing a connection between seismic and fine-scale rock properties. By incorporating sedimentological observations these models can be better constrained and improved. Petroacoustic modelling is complicated by the unpredictable effects of clay minerals and clay-sized particles on geophysical properties. Such effects are responsible for erroneous results when models developed for "clean" reservoirs - such as Gassmann's equation (Gassmann, 1951) - are applied to heterolithic sandstone reservoirs. Gassmann's equation is arguably the most popular petroacoustic modelling technique in the hydrocarbon industry and is used to model elastic effects of changing reservoir fluid saturations. Successful implementation of Gassmann's equation requires well-constrained drained rock frame properties, which in heterolithic sandstones are heavily influenced by reservoir sedimentology, particularly clay distribution. The prevalent approach to categorising clay distribution is based on the Thomas - Stieber model (Thomas & Stieber, 1975), this approach is inconsistent with current understanding of 'shaly sand' sedimentology and omits properties such as sorting and grain size. The novel approach presented here demonstrates that characterising reservoir sedimentology constitutes an important modelling phase. As well as incorporating sedimentological constraints, this novel approach also aims to improve drained frame moduli estimates through more careful consideration of Gassmann's model assumptions and limitations. A key assumption of Gassmann's equation is a pore space in total communication with movable fluids. This assumption is often violated by conventional applications in heterolithic sandstone reservoirs where effective porosity, which

  18. A neural population model incorporating dopaminergic neurotransmission during complex voluntary behaviors.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Fürtinger

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Assessing brain activity during complex voluntary motor behaviors that require the recruitment of multiple neural sites is a field of active research. Our current knowledge is primarily based on human brain imaging studies that have clear limitations in terms of temporal and spatial resolution. We developed a physiologically informed non-linear multi-compartment stochastic neural model to simulate functional brain activity coupled with neurotransmitter release during complex voluntary behavior, such as speech production. Due to its state-dependent modulation of neural firing, dopaminergic neurotransmission plays a key role in the organization of functional brain circuits controlling speech and language and thus has been incorporated in our neural population model. A rigorous mathematical proof establishing existence and uniqueness of solutions to the proposed model as well as a computationally efficient strategy to numerically approximate these solutions are presented. Simulated brain activity during the resting state and sentence production was analyzed using functional network connectivity, and graph theoretical techniques were employed to highlight differences between the two conditions. We demonstrate that our model successfully reproduces characteristic changes seen in empirical data between the resting state and speech production, and dopaminergic neurotransmission evokes pronounced changes in modeled functional connectivity by acting on the underlying biological stochastic neural model. Specifically, model and data networks in both speech and rest conditions share task-specific network features: both the simulated and empirical functional connectivity networks show an increase in nodal influence and segregation in speech over the resting state. These commonalities confirm that dopamine is a key neuromodulator of the functional connectome of speech control. Based on reproducible characteristic aspects of empirical data, we suggest a number

  19. Incorporating Single-nucleotide Polymorphisms Into the Lyman Model to Improve Prediction of Radiation Pneumonitis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tucker, Susan L., E-mail: sltucker@mdanderson.org [Department of Bioinformatics and Computational Biology, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Li Minghuan [Department of Radiation Oncology, Shandong Cancer Hospital, Jinan, Shandong (China); Xu Ting; Gomez, Daniel [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Yuan Xianglin [Department of Oncology, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan (China); Yu Jinming [Department of Radiation Oncology, Shandong Cancer Hospital, Jinan, Shandong (China); Liu Zhensheng; Yin Ming; Guan Xiaoxiang; Wang Lie; Wei Qingyi [Department of Epidemiology, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Mohan, Radhe [Department of Radiation Physics, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Vinogradskiy, Yevgeniy [University of Colorado School of Medicine, Aurora, Colorado (United States); Martel, Mary [Department of Radiation Physics, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Liao Zhongxing [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: To determine whether single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in genes associated with DNA repair, cell cycle, transforming growth factor-{beta}, tumor necrosis factor and receptor, folic acid metabolism, and angiogenesis can significantly improve the fit of the Lyman-Kutcher-Burman (LKB) normal-tissue complication probability (NTCP) model of radiation pneumonitis (RP) risk among patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Methods and Materials: Sixteen SNPs from 10 different genes (XRCC1, XRCC3, APEX1, MDM2, TGF{beta}, TNF{alpha}, TNFR, MTHFR, MTRR, and VEGF) were genotyped in 141 NSCLC patients treated with definitive radiation therapy, with or without chemotherapy. The LKB model was used to estimate the risk of severe (grade {>=}3) RP as a function of mean lung dose (MLD), with SNPs and patient smoking status incorporated into the model as dose-modifying factors. Multivariate analyses were performed by adding significant factors to the MLD model in a forward stepwise procedure, with significance assessed using the likelihood-ratio test. Bootstrap analyses were used to assess the reproducibility of results under variations in the data. Results: Five SNPs were selected for inclusion in the multivariate NTCP model based on MLD alone. SNPs associated with an increased risk of severe RP were in genes for TGF{beta}, VEGF, TNF{alpha}, XRCC1 and APEX1. With smoking status included in the multivariate model, the SNPs significantly associated with increased risk of RP were in genes for TGF{beta}, VEGF, and XRCC3. Bootstrap analyses selected a median of 4 SNPs per model fit, with the 6 genes listed above selected most often. Conclusions: This study provides evidence that SNPs can significantly improve the predictive ability of the Lyman MLD model. With a small number of SNPs, it was possible to distinguish cohorts with >50% risk vs <10% risk of RP when they were exposed to high MLDs.

  20. Stochastic modeling of phosphorus transport in the Three Gorges Reservoir by incorporating variability associated with the phosphorus partition coefficient

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huang, Lei; Fang, Hongwei; Xu, Xingya; He, Guojian; Zhang, Xuesong; Reible, Danny

    2017-08-01

    Phosphorus (P) fate and transport plays a crucial role in the ecology of rivers and reservoirs in which eutrophication is limited by P. A key uncertainty in models used to help manage P in such systems is the partitioning of P to suspended and bed sediments. By analyzing data from field and laboratory experiments, we stochastically characterize the variability of the partition coefficient (Kd) and derive spatio-temporal solutions for P transport in the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR). We formulate a set of stochastic partial different equations (SPDEs) to simulate P transport by randomly sampling Kd from the measured distributions, to obtain statistical descriptions of the P concentration and retention in the TGR. The correspondence between predicted and observed P concentrations and P retention in the TGR combined with the ability to effectively characterize uncertainty suggests that a model that incorporates the observed variability can better describe P dynamics and more effectively serve as a tool for P management in the system. This study highlights the importance of considering parametric uncertainty in estimating uncertainty/variability associated with simulated P transport.

  1. A modelling approach for exploring muscle dynamics during cyclic contractions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephanie A Ross

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Hill-type muscle models are widely used within the field of biomechanics to predict and understand muscle behaviour, and are often essential where muscle forces cannot be directly measured. However, these models have limited accuracy, particularly during cyclic contractions at the submaximal levels of activation that typically occur during locomotion. To address this issue, recent studies have incorporated effects into Hill-type models that are oftentimes neglected, such as size-dependent, history-dependent, and activation-dependent effects. However, the contribution of these effects on muscle performance has yet to be evaluated under common contractile conditions that reflect the range of activations, strains, and strain rates that occur in vivo. The purpose of this study was to develop a modelling framework to evaluate modifications to Hill-type muscle models when they contract in cyclic loops that are typical of locomotor muscle function. Here we present a modelling framework composed of a damped harmonic oscillator in series with a Hill-type muscle actuator that consists of a contractile element and parallel elastic element. The intrinsic force-length and force-velocity properties are described using Bézier curves where we present a system to relate physiological parameters to the control points for these curves. The muscle-oscillator system can be geometrically scaled while preserving dynamic and kinematic similarity to investigate the muscle size effects while controlling for the dynamics of the harmonic oscillator. The model is driven by time-varying muscle activations that cause the muscle to cyclically contract and drive the dynamics of the harmonic oscillator. Thus, this framework provides a platform to test current and future Hill-type model formulations and explore factors affecting muscle performance in muscles of different sizes under a range of cyclic contractile conditions.

  2. Modeling initial contact dynamics during ambulation with dynamic simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Andrew R; Wang, Mei; Smith, Peter A; Harris, Gerald F

    2007-04-01

    Ankle-foot orthoses are frequently used interventions to correct pathological gait. Their effects on the kinematics and kinetics of the proximal joints are of great interest when prescribing ankle-foot orthoses to specific patient groups. Mathematical Dynamic Model (MADYMO) is developed to simulate motor vehicle crash situations and analyze tissue injuries of the occupants based multibody dynamic theories. Joint kinetics output from an inverse model were perturbed and input to the forward model to examine the effects of changes in the internal sagittal ankle moment on knee and hip kinematics following heel strike. Increasing the internal ankle moment (augmentation, equivalent to gastroc-soleus contraction) produced less pronounced changes in kinematic results at the hip, knee and ankle than decreasing the moment (attenuation, equivalent to gastroc-soleus relaxation). Altering the internal ankle moment produced two distinctly different kinematic curve morphologies at the hip. Decreased internal ankle moments increased hip flexion, peaking at roughly 8% of the gait cycle. Increasing internal ankle moments decreased hip flexion to a lesser degree, and approached normal at the same point in the gait cycle. Increasing the internal ankle moment produced relatively small, well-behaved extension-biased kinematic results at the knee. Decreasing the internal ankle moment produced more substantial changes in knee kinematics towards flexion that increased with perturbation magnitude. Curve morphologies were similar to those at the hip. Immediately following heel strike, kinematic results at the ankle showed movement in the direction of the internal moment perturbation. Increased internal moments resulted in kinematic patterns that rapidly approach normal after initial differences. When the internal ankle moment was decreased, differences from normal were much greater and did not rapidly decrease. This study shows that MADYMO can be successfully applied to accomplish forward

  3. A Stochastic Model for Malaria Transmission Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rachel Waema Mbogo

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Malaria is one of the three most dangerous infectious diseases worldwide (along with HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis. In this paper we compare the disease dynamics of the deterministic and stochastic models in order to determine the effect of randomness in malaria transmission dynamics. Relationships between the basic reproduction number for malaria transmission dynamics between humans and mosquitoes and the extinction thresholds of corresponding continuous-time Markov chain models are derived under certain assumptions. The stochastic model is formulated using the continuous-time discrete state Galton-Watson branching process (CTDSGWbp. The reproduction number of deterministic models is an essential quantity to predict whether an epidemic will spread or die out. Thresholds for disease extinction from stochastic models contribute crucial knowledge on disease control and elimination and mitigation of infectious diseases. Analytical and numerical results show some significant differences in model predictions between the stochastic and deterministic models. In particular, we find that malaria outbreak is more likely if the disease is introduced by infected mosquitoes as opposed to infected humans. These insights demonstrate the importance of a policy or intervention focusing on controlling the infected mosquito population if the control of malaria is to be realized.

  4. Modeling biological pathway dynamics with timed automata.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schivo, Stefano; Scholma, Jetse; Wanders, Brend; Urquidi Camacho, Ricardo A; van der Vet, Paul E; Karperien, Marcel; Langerak, Rom; van de Pol, Jaco; Post, Janine N

    2014-05-01

    Living cells are constantly subjected to a plethora of environmental stimuli that require integration into an appropriate cellular response. This integration takes place through signal transduction events that form tightly interconnected networks. The understanding of these networks requires capturing their dynamics through computational support and models. ANIMO (analysis of Networks with Interactive Modeling) is a tool that enables the construction and exploration of executable models of biological networks, helping to derive hypotheses and to plan wet-lab experiments. The tool is based on the formalism of Timed Automata, which can be analyzed via the UPPAAL model checker. Thanks to Timed Automata, we can provide a formal semantics for the domain-specific language used to represent signaling networks. This enforces precision and uniformity in the definition of signaling pathways, contributing to the integration of isolated signaling events into complex network models. We propose an approach to discretization of reaction kinetics that allows us to efficiently use UPPAAL as the computational engine to explore the dynamic behavior of the network of interest. A user-friendly interface hides the use of Timed Automata from the user, while keeping the expressive power intact. Abstraction to single-parameter kinetics speeds up construction of models that remain faithful enough to provide meaningful insight. The resulting dynamic behavior of the network components is displayed graphically, allowing for an intuitive and interactive modeling experience.

  5. Incorporation of defects into the central atoms model of a metallic glass

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lass, Eric A.; Zhu Aiwu; Shiflet, G.J.; Joseph Poon, S.

    2011-01-01

    The central atoms model (CAM) of a metallic glass is extended to incorporate thermodynamically stable defects, similar to vacancies in a crystalline solid, within the amorphous structure. A bond deficiency (BD), which is the proposed defect present in all metallic glasses, is introduced into the CAM equations. Like vacancies in a crystalline solid, BDs are thermodynamically stable entities because of the increase in entropy associated with their creation, and there is an equilibrium concentration present in the glassy phase. When applied to Cu-Zr and Ni-Zr binary metallic glasses, the concentration of thermally induced BDs surrounding Zr atoms reaches a relatively constant value at the glass transition temperature, regardless of composition within a given glass system. Using this 'critical' defect concentration, the predicted temperatures at which the glass transition is expected to occur are in good agreement with the experimentally determined glass transition temperatures for both alloy systems.

  6. A Microdosimetric-Kinetic Model of Cell Killing by Irradiation from Permanently Incorporated Radionuclides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawkins, Roland B

    2018-01-01

    An expression for the surviving fraction of a replicating population of cells exposed to permanently incorporated radionuclide is derived from the microdosimetric-kinetic model. It includes dependency on total implant dose, linear energy transfer (LET), decay rate of the radionuclide, the repair rate of potentially lethal lesions in DNA and the volume doubling time of the target population. This is used to obtain an expression for the biologically effective dose ( BED α / β ) based on the minimum survival achieved by the implant that is equivalent to, and can be compared and combined with, the BED α / β calculated for a fractionated course of radiation treatment. Approximate relationships are presented that are useful in the calculation of BED α / β for alpha- or beta-emitting radionuclides with half-life significantly greater than, or nearly equal to, the approximately 1-h repair half-life of radiation-induced potentially lethal lesions.

  7. Dynamic Model Averaging in Large Model Spaces Using Dynamic Occam’s Window*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onorante, Luca; Raftery, Adrian E.

    2015-01-01

    Bayesian model averaging has become a widely used approach to accounting for uncertainty about the structural form of the model generating the data. When data arrive sequentially and the generating model can change over time, Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) extends model averaging to deal with this situation. Often in macroeconomics, however, many candidate explanatory variables are available and the number of possible models becomes too large for DMA to be applied in its original form. We propose a new method for this situation which allows us to perform DMA without considering the whole model space, but using a subset of models and dynamically optimizing the choice of models at each point in time. This yields a dynamic form of Occam’s window. We evaluate the method in the context of the problem of nowcasting GDP in the Euro area. We find that its forecasting performance compares well with that of other methods. PMID:26917859

  8. Dynamic Model Averaging in Large Model Spaces Using Dynamic Occam's Window.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onorante, Luca; Raftery, Adrian E

    2016-01-01

    Bayesian model averaging has become a widely used approach to accounting for uncertainty about the structural form of the model generating the data. When data arrive sequentially and the generating model can change over time, Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) extends model averaging to deal with this situation. Often in macroeconomics, however, many candidate explanatory variables are available and the number of possible models becomes too large for DMA to be applied in its original form. We propose a new method for this situation which allows us to perform DMA without considering the whole model space, but using a subset of models and dynamically optimizing the choice of models at each point in time. This yields a dynamic form of Occam's window. We evaluate the method in the context of the problem of nowcasting GDP in the Euro area. We find that its forecasting performance compares well with that of other methods.

  9. On the mathematical modeling of soccer dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machado, J. A. Tenreiro; Lopes, António M.

    2017-12-01

    This paper addresses the modeling and dynamical analysis of soccer teams. Two modeling perspectives based on the concepts of fractional calculus are adopted. In the first, the power law behavior and fractional-order integration are explored. In the second, a league season is interpreted in the light of a system where the teams are represented by objects (particles) that evolve in time and interact (collide) at successive rounds with dynamics driven by the outcomes of the matches. The two proposed models embed implicitly details of players and coaches, or strategical and tactical maneuvers during the matches. Therefore, the scale of observation focuses on the teams behavior in the scope of the observed variables. Data characterizing two European soccer leagues in the season 2015-2016 are adopted and processed. The model leads to the emergence of patterns that are analyzed and interpreted.

  10. BWR stability using a reducing dynamical model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ballestrin Bolea, J. M.; Blazquez Martinez, J. B.

    1990-01-01

    BWR stability can be treated with reduced order dynamical models. When the parameters of the model came from dynamical models. When the parameters of the model came from experimental data, the predictions are accurate. In this work an alternative derivation for the void fraction equation is made, but remarking the physical structure of the parameters. As the poles of power/reactivity transfer function are related with the parameters, the measurement of the poles by other techniques such as noise analysis will lead to the parameters, but the system of equations is non-linear. Simple parametric calculation of decay ratio are performed, showing why BWRs become unstable when they are operated at low flow and high power. (Author)

  11. Object Oriented Modelling and Dynamical Simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wagner, Falko Jens; Poulsen, Mikael Zebbelin

    1998-01-01

    This report with appendix describes the work done in master project at DTU.The goal of the project was to develop a concept for simulation of dynamical systems based on object oriented methods.The result was a library of C++-classes, for use when both building componentbased models and when...

  12. Modeling the population dynamics of Pacific yew.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard T. Busing; Thomas A. Spies

    1995-01-01

    A study of Pacific yew (Taxus brevifolia Nutt.) population dynamics in the mountains of western Oregon and Washington was based on a combination of long-term population data and computer modeling. Rates of growth and mortality were low in mature and old-growth forest stands. Diameter growth at breast height ranged from 0 to 3 centimeters per decade...

  13. Incorporation of Hydrogen Bond Angle Dependency into the Generalized Solvation Free Energy Density Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Songling; Hwang, Sungbo; Lee, Sehan; Acree, William E; No, Kyoung Tai

    2018-04-23

    To describe the physically realistic solvation free energy surface of a molecule in a solvent, a generalized version of the solvation free energy density (G-SFED) calculation method has been developed. In the G-SFED model, the contribution from the hydrogen bond (HB) between a solute and a solvent to the solvation free energy was calculated as the product of the acidity of the donor and the basicity of the acceptor of an HB pair. The acidity and basicity parameters of a solute were derived using the summation of acidities and basicities of the respective acidic and basic functional groups of the solute, and that of the solvent was experimentally determined. Although the contribution of HBs to the solvation free energy could be evenly distributed to grid points on the surface of a molecule, the G-SFED model was still inadequate to describe the angle dependency of the HB of a solute with a polarizable continuum solvent. To overcome this shortcoming of the G-SFED model, the contribution of HBs was formulated using the geometric parameters of the grid points described in the HB coordinate system of the solute. We propose an HB angle dependency incorporated into the G-SFED model, i.e., the G-SFED-HB model, where the angular-dependent acidity and basicity densities are defined and parametrized with experimental data. The G-SFED-HB model was then applied to calculate the solvation free energies of organic molecules in water, various alcohols and ethers, and the log P values of diverse organic molecules, including peptides and a protein. Both the G-SFED model and the G-SFED-HB model reproduced the experimental solvation free energies with similar accuracy, whereas the distributions of the SFED on the molecular surface calculated by the G-SFED and G-SFED-HB models were quite different, especially for molecules having HB donors or acceptors. Since the angle dependency of HBs was included in the G-SFED-HB model, the SFED distribution of the G-SFED-HB model is well described

  14. The quantum Rabi model: solution and dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xie, Qiongtao; Zhong, Honghua; Lee, Chaohong; Batchelor, Murray T

    2017-01-01

    This article presents a review of recent developments on various aspects of the quantum Rabi model. Particular emphasis is given on the exact analytic solution obtained in terms of confluent Heun functions. The analytic solutions for various generalisations of the quantum Rabi model are also discussed. Results are also reviewed on the level statistics and the dynamics of the quantum Rabi model. The article concludes with an introductory overview of several experimental realisations of the quantum Rabi model. An outlook towards future developments is also given. (topical review)

  15. A complete dynamic model of primary sedimentation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paraskevas, P; Kolokithas, G; Lekkas, T

    1993-11-01

    A dynamic mathematical model for the primary clarifier of a wastewater treatment plant is described, which is represented by a general tanks-in-series model, to simulate insufficient mixing. The model quantifies successfully the diurnal response of both the suspended and dissolved species. It is general enough, so that the values of the parameters can be replaced with those applicable to a specific case. The model was verified through data from the Biological Centre of Metamorfosi, in Athens, Greece, and can be used to assist in the design of new plants or in the analysis and output predictions of existing ones.

  16. Dynamic Modeling of CDS Index Tranche Spreads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dorn, Jochen

    This paper provides a Market Model which implies a dynamics for standardized CDS index tranche spreads, i.e. tranches which securitise CDS index series and dispose of predefined subordination. This model is useful for pricing options on tranches with future Issue Dates as well as for modeling...... options on structured credit derivatives. With the upcoming regulation of the CDS market in perspective, the model presented here is also an attempt to face the effects on pricing approaches provoked by an eventual Clearing Chamber . It becomes also possible to calibrate Index Tranche Options with bespoke...... tenors/tranche subordination to market data obtained by more liquid Index Tranche Options with standard characteristics....

  17. Uncertainty and its propagation in dynamics models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Devooght, J.

    1994-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to bring together some characteristics due to uncertainty when we deal with dynamic models and therefore to propagation of uncertainty. The respective role of uncertainty and inaccuracy is examined. A mathematical formalism based on Chapman-Kolmogorov equation allows to define a open-quotes subdynamicsclose quotes where the evolution equation takes the uncertainty into account. The problem of choosing or combining models is examined through a loss function associated to a decision

  18. A System Dynamics Model for Planning Cardiovascular Disease Interventions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Homer, Jack; Evans, Elizabeth; Zielinski, Ann

    2010-01-01

    Planning programs for the prevention and treatment of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a challenge to every community that wants to make the best use of its limited resources. Selecting programs that provide the greatest impact is difficult because of the complex set of causal pathways and delays that link risk factors to CVD. We describe a system dynamics simulation model developed for a county health department that incorporates and tracks the effects of those risk factors over time on both first-time and recurrent events. We also describe how the model was used to evaluate the potential impacts of various intervention strategies for reducing the county's CVD burden and present the results of those policy tests. PMID:20167899

  19. Dynamic multibody modeling for tethered space elevators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Paul

    2009-08-01

    This paper presents a fundamental modeling strategy for dealing with powered and propelled bodies moving along space tethers. The tether is divided into a large number of discrete masses, which are connected by viscoelastic springs. The tether is subject to the full range of forces expected in Earth orbit in a relatively simple manner. Two different models of the elevator dynamics are presented. In order to capture the effect of the elevator moving along the tether, the elevator dynamics are included as a separate body in both models. One model treats the elevator's motion dynamically, where propulsive and friction forces are applied to the elevator body. The second model treats the elevator's motion kinematically, where the distance along the tether is determined by adjusting the lengths of tether on either side of the elevator. The tether model is used to determine optimal configurations for the space elevator. A modal analysis of two different configurations is presented which show that the fundamental mode of oscillation is a pendular one around the anchor point with a period on the order of 160 h for the in-plane motion, and 24 h for the out-of-plane motion. Numerical simulation results of the effects of the elevator moving along the cable are presented for different travel velocities and different elevator masses.

  20. Sepsis progression and outcome: a dynamical model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gessler Damian DG

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Sepsis (bloodstream infection is the leading cause of death in non-surgical intensive care units. It is diagnosed in 750,000 US patients per annum, and has high mortality. Current understanding of sepsis is predominately observational and correlational, with only a partial and incomplete understanding of the physiological dynamics underlying the syndrome. There exists a need for dynamical models of sepsis progression, based upon basic physiologic principles, which could eventually guide hourly treatment decisions. Results We present an initial mathematical model of sepsis, based on metabolic rate theory that links basic vascular and immunological dynamics. The model includes the rate of vascular circulation, a surrogate for the metabolic rate that is mechanistically associated with disease progression. We use the mass-specific rate of blood circulation (SRBC, a correlate of the body mass index, to build a differential equation model of circulation, infection, organ damage, and recovery. This introduces a vascular component into an infectious disease model that describes the interaction between a pathogen and the adaptive immune system. Conclusion The model predicts that deviations from normal SRBC correlate with disease progression and adverse outcome. We compare the predictions with population mortality data from cardiovascular disease and cancer and show that deviations from normal SRBC correlate with higher mortality rates.

  1. Mineral vein dynamics modeling (FRACS). Phase 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Urai, J.; Virgo, S.; Arndt, M. [RWTH Aachen (Germany). Geologie-Endogene Dynamik] [and others

    2013-07-15

    The Mineral Vein Dynamics Modeling group ''FRACS'' is a team of 7 research groups from the Universities of Mainz, Aachen, Tuebingen, Karlsruhe, Bayreuth, ETH Zuerich and Glasgow working on an understanding of the dynamic development of fracturing, fluid flow and fracture sealing. World-class field laboratories, especially carbonate sequences from the Oman Mountains are studied and classified. State of the art numerical programs are written, expanded and used to simulate the dynamic interaction of fracturing, flow and resealing and the results are compared with the natural examples. Newest analytical technologies including laser scanning, high resolution X-ray microtomography, fluid inclusion and isotope analysis are performed to understand and compare the results of simulations with natural examples. A new statistical program was developed to classify the natural fracture and vein systems and compare them with dynamic numerical simulations and analytical models. The results of the first project phase are extremely promising. Most of the numerical models have been developed up to the stage where they can be used to simulate the natural examples. The models allow a definition of the first proxies for high fluid pressure and tectonic stresses. It was found out that the Oman Mountains are a complex and very dynamic system that constantly fractures and reseals from the scale of small veins up to the scale of large normal and strike slip faults. The numerical simulations also indicate that the permeability of such systems is not a constant but that the system adjusts to the driving force, for ex-ample high fluid pressure. When the system reseals fast a fluctuating behavior can be observed in the models where the system constantly fractures and reseals, which is in accordance with the observation of the natural laboratory.

  2. An FDTD algorithm for simulation of EM waves propagation in laser with static and dynamic gain models

    KAUST Repository

    Al-Jabr, Ahmad Ali; Alsunaidi, Mohammad A.; Ooi, Boon S.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents methods of simulating gain media in the finite difference time-domain (FDTD) algorithm utilizing a generalized polarization formulation. The gain can be static or dynamic. For static gain, Lorentzian and non-Lorentzian models are presented and tested. For the dynamic gain, rate equations for two-level and four-level models are incorporated in the FDTD scheme. The simulation results conform with the expected behavior of wave amplification and dynamic population inversion.

  3. Incorporating an extended dendritic growth model into the CAFE model for rapidly solidified non-dilute alloys

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ma, Jie; Wang, Bo; Zhao, Shunli; Wu, Guangxin; Zhang, Jieyu; Yang, Zhiliang

    2016-01-01

    We have extended the dendritic growth model first proposed by Boettinger, Coriell and Trivedi (here termed EBCT) for microstructure simulations of rapidly solidified non-dilute alloys. The temperature-dependent distribution coefficient, obtained from calculations of phase equilibria, and the continuous growth model (CGM) were adopted in the present EBCT model to describe the solute trapping behaviors. The temperature dependence of the physical properties, which were not used in previous dendritic growth models, were also considered in the present EBCT model. These extensions allow the present EBCT model to be used for microstructure simulations of non-dilute alloys. The comparison of the present EBCT model with the BCT model proves that the considerations of the distribution coefficient and physical properties are necessary for microstructure simulations, especially for small particles with high undercoolings. Finally, the EBCT model was incorporated into the cellular automaton-finite element (CAFE) model to simulate microstructures of gas-atomized ASP30 high speed steel particles that were then compared with experimental results. Both the simulated and experimental results reveal that a columnar dendritic microstructure preferentially forms in small particles and an equiaxed microstructure forms otherwise. The applications of the present EBCT model provide a convenient way to predict the microstructure of non-dilute alloys. - Highlights: • A dendritic growth model was developed considering non-equilibrium distribution coefficient. • The physical properties with temperature dependence were considered in the extended model. • The extended model can be used to non-dilute alloys and the extensions are necessary in small particles. • Microstructure of ASP30 steel was investigated using the present model and verified by experiment.

  4. Incorporating an extended dendritic growth model into the CAFE model for rapidly solidified non-dilute alloys

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ma, Jie; Wang, Bo [State Key Laboratory of Advanced Special Steel, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200072 (China); Shanghai Engineering Technology Research Center of Special Casting, Shanghai 201605 (China); Zhao, Shunli [Research Institute, Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd, Shanghai 201900 (China); Wu, Guangxin [State Key Laboratory of Advanced Special Steel, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200072 (China); Shanghai Engineering Technology Research Center of Special Casting, Shanghai 201605 (China); Zhang, Jieyu, E-mail: zjy6162@staff.shu.edu.cn [State Key Laboratory of Advanced Special Steel, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200072 (China); Shanghai Engineering Technology Research Center of Special Casting, Shanghai 201605 (China); Yang, Zhiliang [State Key Laboratory of Advanced Special Steel, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200072 (China); Shanghai Engineering Technology Research Center of Special Casting, Shanghai 201605 (China)

    2016-05-25

    We have extended the dendritic growth model first proposed by Boettinger, Coriell and Trivedi (here termed EBCT) for microstructure simulations of rapidly solidified non-dilute alloys. The temperature-dependent distribution coefficient, obtained from calculations of phase equilibria, and the continuous growth model (CGM) were adopted in the present EBCT model to describe the solute trapping behaviors. The temperature dependence of the physical properties, which were not used in previous dendritic growth models, were also considered in the present EBCT model. These extensions allow the present EBCT model to be used for microstructure simulations of non-dilute alloys. The comparison of the present EBCT model with the BCT model proves that the considerations of the distribution coefficient and physical properties are necessary for microstructure simulations, especially for small particles with high undercoolings. Finally, the EBCT model was incorporated into the cellular automaton-finite element (CAFE) model to simulate microstructures of gas-atomized ASP30 high speed steel particles that were then compared with experimental results. Both the simulated and experimental results reveal that a columnar dendritic microstructure preferentially forms in small particles and an equiaxed microstructure forms otherwise. The applications of the present EBCT model provide a convenient way to predict the microstructure of non-dilute alloys. - Highlights: • A dendritic growth model was developed considering non-equilibrium distribution coefficient. • The physical properties with temperature dependence were considered in the extended model. • The extended model can be used to non-dilute alloys and the extensions are necessary in small particles. • Microstructure of ASP30 steel was investigated using the present model and verified by experiment.

  5. Analyzing, Modeling, and Simulation for Human Dynamics in Social Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunpeng Xiao

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies the human behavior in the top-one social network system in China (Sina Microblog system. By analyzing real-life data at a large scale, we find that the message releasing interval (intermessage time obeys power law distribution both at individual level and at group level. Statistical analysis also reveals that human behavior in social network is mainly driven by four basic elements: social pressure, social identity, social participation, and social relation between individuals. Empirical results present the four elements' impact on the human behavior and the relation between these elements. To further understand the mechanism of such dynamic phenomena, a hybrid human dynamic model which combines “interest” of individual and “interaction” among people is introduced, incorporating the four elements simultaneously. To provide a solid evaluation, we simulate both two-agent and multiagent interactions with real-life social network topology. We achieve the consistent results between empirical studies and the simulations. The model can provide a good understanding of human dynamics in social network.

  6. Direct modeling for computational fluid dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Kun

    2015-06-01

    All fluid dynamic equations are valid under their modeling scales, such as the particle mean free path and mean collision time scale of the Boltzmann equation and the hydrodynamic scale of the Navier-Stokes (NS) equations. The current computational fluid dynamics (CFD) focuses on the numerical solution of partial differential equations (PDEs), and its aim is to get the accurate solution of these governing equations. Under such a CFD practice, it is hard to develop a unified scheme that covers flow physics from kinetic to hydrodynamic scales continuously because there is no such governing equation which could make a smooth transition from the Boltzmann to the NS modeling. The study of fluid dynamics needs to go beyond the traditional numerical partial differential equations. The emerging engineering applications, such as air-vehicle design for near-space flight and flow and heat transfer in micro-devices, do require further expansion of the concept of gas dynamics to a larger domain of physical reality, rather than the traditional distinguishable governing equations. At the current stage, the non-equilibrium flow physics has not yet been well explored or clearly understood due to the lack of appropriate tools. Unfortunately, under the current numerical PDE approach, it is hard to develop such a meaningful tool due to the absence of valid PDEs. In order to construct multiscale and multiphysics simulation methods similar to the modeling process of constructing the Boltzmann or the NS governing equations, the development of a numerical algorithm should be based on the first principle of physical modeling. In this paper, instead of following the traditional numerical PDE path, we introduce direct modeling as a principle for CFD algorithm development. Since all computations are conducted in a discretized space with limited cell resolution, the flow physics to be modeled has to be done in the mesh size and time step scales. Here, the CFD is more or less a direct

  7. New concepts for dynamic plant uptake models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rein, Arno; Legind, Charlotte Nielsen; Trapp, Stefan

    2011-01-01

    Models for the prediction of chemical uptake into plants are widely applied tools for human and wildlife exposure assessment, pesticide design and for environmental biotechnology such as phytoremediation. Steady-state considerations are often applied, because they are simple and have a small data...... need. However, often the emission pattern is non-steady. Examples are pesticide spraying, or the application of manure and sewage sludge on agricultural fields. In these scenarios, steady-state solutions are not valid, and dynamic simulation is required. We compared different approaches for dynamic...

  8. Statistical models of petrol engines vehicles dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ilie, C. O.; Marinescu, M.; Alexa, O.; Vilău, R.; Grosu, D.

    2017-10-01

    This paper focuses on studying statistical models of vehicles dynamics. It was design and perform a one year testing program. There were used many same type cars with gasoline engines and different mileage. Experimental data were collected of onboard sensors and those on the engine test stand. A database containing data of 64th tests was created. Several mathematical modelling were developed using database and the system identification method. Each modelling is a SISO or a MISO linear predictive ARMAX (AutoRegressive-Moving-Average with eXogenous inputs) model. It represents a differential equation with constant coefficients. It were made 64th equations for each dependency like engine torque as output and engine’s load and intake manifold pressure, as inputs. There were obtained strings with 64 values for each type of model. The final models were obtained using average values of the coefficients. The accuracy of models was assessed.

  9. Modeling the dynamic crush of impact mitigating materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Logan, R.W.; McMichael, L.D.

    1995-01-01

    Crushable materials are commonly utilized in the design of structural components to absorb energy and mitigate shock during the dynamic impact of a complex structure, such as an automobile chassis or drum-type shipping container. The development and application of several finite-element material models which have been developed at various times at LLNL for DYNA3D will be discussed. Between the models, they are able to account for several of the predominant mechanisms which typically influence the dynamic mechanical behavior of crushable materials. One issue we addressed was that no single existing model would account for the entire gambit of constitutive features which are important for crushable materials. Thus, we describe the implementation and use of an additional material model which attempts to provide a more comprehensive model of the mechanics of crushable material behavior. This model combines features of the pre-existing DYNA models and incorporates some new features as well in an invariant large-strain formulation. In addition to examining the behavior of a unit cell in uniaxial compression, two cases were chosen to evaluate the capabilities and accuracy of the various material models in DYNA. In the first case, a model for foam filled box beams was developed and compared to test data from a 4-point bend test. The model was subsequently used to study its effectiveness in energy absorption in an aluminum extrusion, spaceframe, vehicle chassis. The second case examined the response of the AT-400A shipping container and the performance of the overpack material during accident environments selected from 10CFR71 and IAEA regulations

  10. A multi-period, multi-regional generation expansion planning model incorporating unit commitment constraints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koltsaklis, Nikolaos E.; Georgiadis, Michael C.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • A short-term structured investment planning model has been developed. • Unit commitment problem is incorporated into the long-term planning horizon. • Inherent intermittency of renewables is modelled in a comprehensive way. • The impact of CO_2 emission pricing in long-term investment decisions is quantified. • The evolution of system’s marginal price is evaluated for all the planning horizon. - Abstract: This work presents a generic mixed integer linear programming (MILP) model that integrates the unit commitment problem (UCP), i.e., daily energy planning with the long-term generation expansion planning (GEP) framework. Typical daily constraints at an hourly level such as start-up and shut-down related decisions (start-up type, minimum up and down time, synchronization, soak and desynchronization time constraints), ramping limits, system reserve requirements are combined with representative yearly constraints such as power capacity additions, power generation bounds of each unit, peak reserve requirements, and energy policy issues (renewables penetration limits, CO_2 emissions cap and pricing). For modelling purposes, a representative day (24 h) of each month over a number of years has been employed in order to determine the optimal capacity additions, electricity market clearing prices, and daily operational planning of the studied power system. The model has been tested on an illustrative case study of the Greek power system. Our approach aims to provide useful insight into strategic and challenging decisions to be determined by investors and/or policy makers at a national and/or regional level by providing the optimal energy roadmap under real operating and design constraints.

  11. Indonesia’s Electricity Demand Dynamic Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sulistio, J.; Wirabhuana, A.; Wiratama, M. G.

    2017-06-01

    Electricity Systems modelling is one of the emerging area in the Global Energy policy studies recently. System Dynamics approach and Computer Simulation has become one the common methods used in energy systems planning and evaluation in many conditions. On the other hand, Indonesia experiencing several major issues in Electricity system such as fossil fuel domination, demand - supply imbalances, distribution inefficiency, and bio-devastation. This paper aims to explain the development of System Dynamics modelling approaches and computer simulation techniques in representing and predicting electricity demand in Indonesia. In addition, this paper also described the typical characteristics and relationship of commercial business sector, industrial sector, and family / domestic sector as electricity subsystems in Indonesia. Moreover, it will be also present direct structure, behavioural, and statistical test as model validation approach and ended by conclusions.

  12. Friction modelling of preloaded tube contact dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hassan, M.A.; Rogers, R.J.

    2004-01-01

    Many loosely supported components are subjected to flow-induced vibration leading to localized wear. Life prediction depends on robust and accurate modelling of the nonlinear dynamics as the components interact with their supports. The output of such analysis is the component dynamic response and impact forces, including friction forces during stick-slip motions. Such results are used to determine the normal work rates, which are utilized to predict fretting wear damage. Accurate estimates of these parameters are essential. This paper presents simulations of a loosely supported fuel-channel tube subject to turbulence excitation. The effects of tube/support clearance and preload are investigated. Several friction models, including velocity-limited, spring-damper, and force-balance are utilized. A comparison of these models is carried out to investigate their accuracy. The results show good agreement with experimental work rates when a simple iterative procedure to update the friction forces is used. (authors)

  13. Dynamic Circuit Model for Spintronic Devices

    KAUST Repository

    Alawein, Meshal

    2017-01-09

    In this work we propose a finite-difference scheme based circuit model of a general spintronic device and benchmark it with other models proposed for spintronic switching devices. Our model is based on the four-component spin circuit theory and utilizes the widely used coupled stochastic magnetization dynamics/spin transport framework. In addition to the steady-state analysis, this work offers a transient analysis of carrier transport. By discretizing the temporal and spatial derivatives to generate a linear system of equations, we derive new and simple finite-difference conductance matrices that can, to the first order, capture both static and dynamic behaviors of a spintronic device. We also discuss an extension of the spin modified nodal analysis (SMNA) for time-dependent situations based on the proposed scheme.

  14. Dynamic Circuit Model for Spintronic Devices

    KAUST Repository

    Alawein, Meshal; Fariborzi, Hossein

    2017-01-01

    In this work we propose a finite-difference scheme based circuit model of a general spintronic device and benchmark it with other models proposed for spintronic switching devices. Our model is based on the four-component spin circuit theory and utilizes the widely used coupled stochastic magnetization dynamics/spin transport framework. In addition to the steady-state analysis, this work offers a transient analysis of carrier transport. By discretizing the temporal and spatial derivatives to generate a linear system of equations, we derive new and simple finite-difference conductance matrices that can, to the first order, capture both static and dynamic behaviors of a spintronic device. We also discuss an extension of the spin modified nodal analysis (SMNA) for time-dependent situations based on the proposed scheme.

  15. Friction modelling of preloaded tube contact dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hassan, M.A.; Rogers, R.J.

    2005-01-01

    Many loosely supported components are subjected to flow-induced vibration leading to localized wear. Life prediction depends on robust and accurate modelling of the nonlinear dynamics as the components interact with their supports. The output of such analysis is the component dynamic response and impact forces, including friction forces during stick-slip motions. Such results are used to determine the normal work rates, which are utilized to predict fretting wear damage. Accurate estimates of these parameters are essential. This paper presents simulations of a loosely supported fuel-channel tube subject to turbulence excitation. The effects of tube/support clearance and preload are investigated. Several friction models, including velocity-limited, spring-damper and force-balance are utilized. A comparison of these models is carried out to investigate their accuracy. The results show good agreement with experimental work rates when a simple iterative procedure to update the friction forces is used

  16. Traffic flow dynamics data, models and simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Treiber, Martin

    2013-01-01

    This textbook provides a comprehensive and instructive coverage of vehicular traffic flow dynamics and modeling. It makes this fascinating interdisciplinary topic, which to date was only documented in parts by specialized monographs, accessible to a broad readership. Numerous figures and problems with solutions help the reader to quickly understand and practice the presented concepts. This book is targeted at students of physics and traffic engineering and, more generally, also at students and professionals in computer science, mathematics, and interdisciplinary topics. It also offers material for project work in programming and simulation at college and university level. The main part, after presenting different categories of traffic data, is devoted to a mathematical description of the dynamics of traffic flow, covering macroscopic models which describe traffic in terms of density, as well as microscopic many-particle models in which each particle corresponds to a vehicle and its driver. Focus chapters on ...

  17. Complex networks under dynamic repair model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaoqi, Fu; Ying, Wang; Kun, Zhao; Yangjun, Gao

    2018-01-01

    Invulnerability is not the only factor of importance when considering complex networks' security. It is also critical to have an effective and reasonable repair strategy. Existing research on network repair is confined to the static model. The dynamic model makes better use of the redundant capacity of repaired nodes and repairs the damaged network more efficiently than the static model; however, the dynamic repair model is complex and polytropic. In this paper, we construct a dynamic repair model and systematically describe the energy-transfer relationships between nodes in the repair process of the failure network. Nodes are divided into three types, corresponding to three structures. We find that the strong coupling structure is responsible for secondary failure of the repaired nodes and propose an algorithm that can select the most suitable targets (nodes or links) to repair the failure network with minimal cost. Two types of repair strategies are identified, with different effects under the two energy-transfer rules. The research results enable a more flexible approach to network repair.

  18. Collisional model for granular impact dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Abram H; Petersen, Alec J; Behringer, Robert P

    2014-01-01

    When an intruder strikes a granular material from above, the grains exert a stopping force which decelerates and stops the intruder. Many previous studies have used a macroscopic force law, including a drag force which is quadratic in velocity, to characterize the decelerating force on the intruder. However, the microscopic origins of the force-law terms are still a subject of debate. Here, drawing from previous experiments with photoelastic particles, we present a model which describes the velocity-squared force in terms of repeated collisions with clusters of grains. From our high speed photoelastic data, we infer that "clusters" correspond to segments of the strong force network that are excited by the advancing intruder. The model predicts a scaling relation for the velocity-squared drag force that accounts for the intruder shape. Additionally, we show that the collisional model predicts an instability to rotations, which depends on the intruder shape. To test this model, we perform a comprehensive experimental study of the dynamics of two-dimensional granular impacts on beds of photoelastic disks, with different profiles for the leading edge of the intruder. We particularly focus on a simple and useful case for testing shape effects by using triangular-nosed intruders. We show that the collisional model effectively captures the dynamics of intruder deceleration and rotation; i.e., these two dynamical effects can be described as two different manifestations of the same grain-scale physical processes.

  19. Next Generation Carbon-Nitrogen Dynamics Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, C.; Fisher, R. A.; Vrugt, J. A.; Wullschleger, S. D.; McDowell, N. G.

    2012-12-01

    Nitrogen is a key regulator of vegetation dynamics, soil carbon release, and terrestrial carbon cycles. Thus, to assess energy impacts on the global carbon cycle and future climates, it is critical that we have a mechanism-based and data-calibrated nitrogen model that simulates nitrogen limitation upon both above and belowground carbon dynamics. In this study, we developed a next generation nitrogen-carbon dynamic model within the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM). This next generation nitrogen-carbon dynamic model utilized 1) a mechanistic model of nitrogen limitation on photosynthesis with nitrogen trade-offs among light absorption, electron transport, carboxylation, respiration and storage; 2) an optimal leaf nitrogen model that links soil nitrogen availability and leaf nitrogen content; and 3) an ecosystem demography (ED) model that simulates the growth and light competition of tree cohorts and is currently coupled to CLM. Our three test cases with changes in CO2 concentration, growing temperature and radiation demonstrate the model's ability to predict the impact of altered environmental conditions on nitrogen allocations. Currently, we are testing the model against different datasets including soil fertilization and Free Air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiments across different forest types. We expect that our calibrated model will considerably improve our understanding and predictability of vegetation-climate interactions.itrogen allocation model evaluations. The figure shows the scatter plots of predicted and measured Vc,max and Jmax scaled to 25 oC (i.e.,Vc,max25 and Jmax25) at elevated CO2 (570 ppm, test case one), reduced radiation in canopy (0.1-0.9 of the radiation at the top of canopy, test case two) and reduced growing temperature (15oC, test case three). The model is first calibrated using control data under ambient CO2 (370 ppm), radiation at the top of the canopy (621 μmol photon/m2/s), the normal growing temperature (30oC). The fitted model

  20. Analysing the temporal dynamics of model performance for hydrological models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reusser, D.E.; Blume, T.; Schaefli, B.; Zehe, E.

    2009-01-01

    The temporal dynamics of hydrological model performance gives insights into errors that cannot be obtained from global performance measures assigning a single number to the fit of a simulated time series to an observed reference series. These errors can include errors in data, model parameters, or

  1. Evaluation of the incorporation of bone grafts used in maxillofacial surgery with [18F]fluoride ion and dynamic positron emission tomography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berding, G.; Burchert, W.; Hoff, J. van den; Pytlik, C.; Neukam, F.W.; Meyer, G.J.; Gratz, K.F.; Hundeshagen, H.

    1995-01-01

    This study investigates the incorporation of bone grafts used in maxillofacial surgery by means of 18 F-fluoride ion and PET. It considers patients who received pedicle grafts for mandibular reconstruction or onlay grafts for alveolar ridge augmentation. Dynamic PET images and arterialized venous blood samples were obtained within a 1-h period after i.v. injection of 18 F-fluoride. Assuming a three-compartment model and applying multilinear least squares fitting, bone blood flow and fluoride influx (K mlf ) were determined. Additionally Patlak plot analysis was used to calculate fluoride influx (K pat ). Early after surgery a significant increase in flow and influx compared to vertebral bodies was observed in the regions of osteosyntheses between grafts used for reconstruction and recipient bone. At the same time pedicle grafts showed a significant increase in flow but not in influx. Furthermore K pat was significantly lower in pedicle grafts than in onlay grafts. In follow-up studies a significant decrease in flow occurred in pedicle grafts and the regions of osteosyntheses. Moreover the latter showed a significant decrease in K mlf as well. It is concluded that 18 F - PET depicted increased blood flow and osteoblastic activity in onlay grafts and regions of osteosyntheses, indicating bone repair in the graft and adjacent host bone early after surgery. For the regions of osteosyntheses the decrease in both parameters corresponded to uncomplicated healing. The lack of increased influx, although flow was increased in pedicle grafts, most likely indicates that some necrosis occurred in these grafts despite patency of anastomoses. It may be concluded that 18 F - PET provides further insight into the biology of graft incorporation. (orig./MG)

  2. Evaluation of the incorporation of bone grafts used in maxillofacial surgery with [{sup 18}F]fluoride ion and dynamic positron emission tomography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berding, G. [Abt. fuer Nuklearmedizin und Spezielle Biophysik, Medizinische Hochschule, Hannover (Germany); Burchert, W. [Abt. fuer Nuklearmedizin und Spezielle Biophysik, Medizinische Hochschule, Hannover (Germany); Hoff, J. van den [Abt. fuer Nuklearmedizin und Spezielle Biophysik, Medizinische Hochschule, Hannover (Germany); Pytlik, C. [Klinik und Poliklink fuer Mund-, Kiefer- und Gesichtschirurgie, Medizinische Hochschule, Hannover (Germany); Neukam, F.W. [Klinik und Poliklink fuer Mund-, Kiefer- und Gesichtschirurgie, Medizinische Hochschule, Hannover (Germany); Meyer, G.J. [Abt. fuer Nuklearmedizin und Spezielle Biophysik, Medizinische Hochschule, Hannover (Germany); Gratz, K.F. [Abt. fuer Nuklearmedizin und Spezielle Biophysik, Medizinische Hochschule, Hannover (Germany); Hundeshagen, H. [Abt. fuer Nuklearmedizin und Spezielle Biophysik, Medizinische Hochschule, Hannover (Germany)

    1995-10-01

    This study investigates the incorporation of bone grafts used in maxillofacial surgery by means of {sup 18}F-fluoride ion and PET. It considers patients who received pedicle grafts for mandibular reconstruction or onlay grafts for alveolar ridge augmentation. Dynamic PET images and arterialized venous blood samples were obtained within a 1-h period after i.v. injection of {sup 18}F-fluoride. Assuming a three-compartment model and applying multilinear least squares fitting, bone blood flow and fluoride influx (K{sub mlf}) were determined. Additionally Patlak plot analysis was used to calculate fluoride influx (K{sub pat}). Early after surgery a significant increase in flow and influx compared to vertebral bodies was observed in the regions of osteosyntheses between grafts used for reconstruction and recipient bone. At the same time pedicle grafts showed a significant increase in flow but not in influx. Furthermore K{sub pat} was significantly lower in pedicle grafts than in onlay grafts. In follow-up studies a significant decrease in flow occurred in pedicle grafts and the regions of osteosyntheses. Moreover the latter showed a significant decrease in K{sub mlf} as well. It is concluded that {sup 18}F{sup -} PET depicted increased blood flow and osteoblastic activity in onlay grafts and regions of osteosyntheses, indicating bone repair in the graft and adjacent host bone early after surgery. For the regions of osteosyntheses the decrease in both parameters corresponded to uncomplicated healing. The lack of increased influx, although flow was increased in pedicle grafts, most likely indicates that some necrosis occurred in these grafts despite patency of anastomoses. It may be concluded that {sup 18}F{sup -} PET provides further insight into the biology of graft incorporation. (orig./MG)

  3. An introduction to modeling neuronal dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Börgers, Christoph

    2017-01-01

    This book is intended as a text for a one-semester course on Mathematical and Computational Neuroscience for upper-level undergraduate and beginning graduate students of mathematics, the natural sciences, engineering, or computer science. An undergraduate introduction to differential equations is more than enough mathematical background. Only a slim, high school-level background in physics is assumed, and none in biology. Topics include models of individual nerve cells and their dynamics, models of networks of neurons coupled by synapses and gap junctions, origins and functions of population rhythms in neuronal networks, and models of synaptic plasticity. An extensive online collection of Matlab programs generating the figures accompanies the book. .

  4. Ultrasonically assisted drilling: A finite-element model incorporating acoustic softening effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phadnis, V A; Roy, A; Silberschmidt, V V

    2013-01-01

    Ultrasonically assisted drilling (UAD) is a novel machining technique suitable for drilling in hard-to-machine quasi-brittle materials such as carbon fibre reinforced polymer composites (CFRP). UAD has been shown to possess several advantages compared to conventional drilling (CD), including reduced thrust forces, diminished burr formation at drill exit and an overall improvement in roundness and surface finish of the drilled hole. Recently, our in-house experiments of UAD in CFRP composites demonstrated remarkable reductions in thrust-force and torque measurements (average force reductions in excess of 80%) when compared to CD with the same machining parameters. In this study, a 3D finite-element model of drilling in CFRP is developed. In order to model acoustic (ultrasonic) softening effects, a phenomenological model, which accounts for ultrasonically induced plastic strain, was implemented in ABAQUS/Explicit. The model also accounts for dynamic frictional effects, which also contribute to the overall improved machining characteristics in UAD. The model is validated with experimental findings, where an excellent correlation between the reduced thrust force and torque magnitude was achieved

  5. Estimating disperser abundance using open population models that incorporate data from continuous detection PIT arrays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dzul, Maria C.; Yackulic, Charles B.; Korman, Josh

    2017-01-01

    Autonomous passive integrated transponder (PIT) tag antenna systems continuously detect individually marked organisms at one or more fixed points over long time periods. Estimating abundance using data from autonomous antennae can be challenging, because these systems do not detect unmarked individuals. Here we pair PIT antennae data from a tributary with mark-recapture sampling data in a mainstem river to estimate the number of fish moving from the mainstem to the tributary. We then use our model to estimate abundance of non-native rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss that move from the Colorado River to the Little Colorado River (LCR), the latter of which is important spawning and rearing habitat for federally-endangered humpback chub Gila cypha. We estimate 226 rainbow trout (95% CI: 127-370) entered the LCR from October 2013-April 2014. We discuss the challenges of incorporating detections from autonomous PIT antenna systems into mark-recapture population models, particularly in regards to using information about spatial location to estimate movement and detection probabilities.

  6. Incorporating Measurement Error from Modeled Air Pollution Exposures into Epidemiological Analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samoli, Evangelia; Butland, Barbara K

    2017-12-01

    Outdoor air pollution exposures used in epidemiological studies are commonly predicted from spatiotemporal models incorporating limited measurements, temporal factors, geographic information system variables, and/or satellite data. Measurement error in these exposure estimates leads to imprecise estimation of health effects and their standard errors. We reviewed methods for measurement error correction that have been applied in epidemiological studies that use model-derived air pollution data. We identified seven cohort studies and one panel study that have employed measurement error correction methods. These methods included regression calibration, risk set regression calibration, regression calibration with instrumental variables, the simulation extrapolation approach (SIMEX), and methods under the non-parametric or parameter bootstrap. Corrections resulted in small increases in the absolute magnitude of the health effect estimate and its standard error under most scenarios. Limited application of measurement error correction methods in air pollution studies may be attributed to the absence of exposure validation data and the methodological complexity of the proposed methods. Future epidemiological studies should consider in their design phase the requirements for the measurement error correction method to be later applied, while methodological advances are needed under the multi-pollutants setting.

  7. Exciton delocalization incorporated drift-diffusion model for bulk-heterojunction organic solar cells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zi Shuai; Sha, Wei E. I.; Choy, Wallace C. H.

    2016-12-01

    Modeling the charge-generation process is highly important to understand device physics and optimize power conversion efficiency of bulk-heterojunction organic solar cells (OSCs). Free carriers are generated by both ultrafast exciton delocalization and slow exciton diffusion and dissociation at the heterojunction interface. In this work, we developed a systematic numerical simulation to describe the charge-generation process by a modified drift-diffusion model. The transport, recombination, and collection of free carriers are incorporated to fully capture the device response. The theoretical results match well with the state-of-the-art high-performance organic solar cells. It is demonstrated that the increase of exciton delocalization ratio reduces the energy loss in the exciton diffusion-dissociation process, and thus, significantly improves the device efficiency, especially for the short-circuit current. By changing the exciton delocalization ratio, OSC performances are comprehensively investigated under the conditions of short-circuit and open-circuit. Particularly, bulk recombination dependent fill factor saturation is unveiled and understood. As a fundamental electrical analysis of the delocalization mechanism, our work is important to understand and optimize the high-performance OSCs.

  8. Simulation of a severe convective storm using a numerical model with explicitly incorporated aerosols

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lompar, Miloš; Ćurić, Mladjen; Romanic, Djordje

    2017-09-01

    Despite an important role the aerosols play in all stages of cloud lifecycle, their representation in numerical weather prediction models is often rather crude. This paper investigates the effects the explicit versus implicit inclusion of aerosols in a microphysics parameterization scheme in Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) - Advanced Research WRF (WRF-ARW) model has on cloud dynamics and microphysics. The testbed selected for this study is a severe mesoscale convective system with supercells that struck west and central parts of Serbia in the afternoon of July 21, 2014. Numerical products of two model runs, i.e. one with aerosols explicitly (WRF-AE) included and another with aerosols implicitly (WRF-AI) assumed, are compared against precipitation measurements from surface network of rain gauges, as well as against radar and satellite observations. The WRF-AE model accurately captured the transportation of dust from the north Africa over the Mediterranean and to the Balkan region. On smaller scales, both models displaced the locations of clouds situated above west and central Serbia towards southeast and under-predicted the maximum values of composite radar reflectivity. Similar to satellite images, WRF-AE shows the mesoscale convective system as a merged cluster of cumulonimbus clouds. Both models over-predicted the precipitation amounts; WRF-AE over-predictions are particularly pronounced in the zones of light rain, while WRF-AI gave larger outliers. Unlike WRF-AI, the WRF-AE approach enables the modelling of time evolution and influx of aerosols into the cloud which could be of practical importance in weather forecasting and weather modification. Several likely causes for discrepancies between models and observations are discussed and prospects for further research in this field are outlined.

  9. Evaluation of five dry particle deposition parameterizations for incorporation into atmospheric transport models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Tanvir R.; Perlinger, Judith A.

    2017-10-01

    the three most influential parameters in all parameterizations. For giant particles (dp = 10 µm), relative humidity was the most influential parameter. Because it is the least complex of the five parameterizations, and it has the greatest accuracy and least uncertainty, we propose that the ZH14 parameterization is currently superior for incorporation into atmospheric transport models.

  10. Evaluation of five dry particle deposition parameterizations for incorporation into atmospheric transport models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. R. Khan

    2017-10-01

    µm, friction velocity was one of the three most influential parameters in all parameterizations. For giant particles (dp  =  10 µm, relative humidity was the most influential parameter. Because it is the least complex of the five parameterizations, and it has the greatest accuracy and least uncertainty, we propose that the ZH14 parameterization is currently superior for incorporation into atmospheric transport models.

  11. Five challenges in modelling interacting strain dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul S. Wikramaratna

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Population epidemiological models where hosts can be infected sequentially by different strains have the potential to help us understand many important diseases. Researchers have in recent years started to develop and use such models, but the extra layer of complexity from multiple strains brings with it many technical challenges. It is therefore hard to build models which have realistic assumptions yet are tractable. Here we outline some of the main challenges in this area. First we begin with the fundamental question of how to translate from complex small-scale dynamics within a host to useful population models. Next we consider the nature of so-called “strain space”. We describe two key types of host heterogeneities, and explain how models could help generate a better understanding of their effects. Finally, for diseases with many strains, we consider the challenge of modelling how immunity accumulates over multiple exposures.

  12. Structural system identification: Structural dynamics model validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Red-Horse, J.R.

    1997-04-01

    Structural system identification is concerned with the development of systematic procedures and tools for developing predictive analytical models based on a physical structure`s dynamic response characteristics. It is a multidisciplinary process that involves the ability (1) to define high fidelity physics-based analysis models, (2) to acquire accurate test-derived information for physical specimens using diagnostic experiments, (3) to validate the numerical simulation model by reconciling differences that inevitably exist between the analysis model and the experimental data, and (4) to quantify uncertainties in the final system models and subsequent numerical simulations. The goal of this project was to develop structural system identification techniques and software suitable for both research and production applications in code and model validation.

  13. Modeling the dynamic characteristics of pneumatic muscle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, D B; Repperger, D W; Phillips, C A; Bandry, G

    2003-03-01

    A pneumatic muscle (PM) system was studied to determine whether a three-element model could describe its dynamics. As far as the authors are aware, this model has not been used to describe the dynamics of PM. A new phenomenological model consists of a contractile (force-generating) element, spring element, and damping element in parallel. The PM system was investigated using an apparatus that allowed precise and accurate actuation pressure (P) control by a linear servo-valve. Length change of the PM was measured by a linear potentiometer. Spring and damping element functions of P were determined by a static perturbation method at several constant P values. These results indicate that at constant P, PM behaves as a spring and damper in parallel. The contractile element function of P was determined by the response to a step input in P, using values of spring and damping elements from the perturbation study. The study showed that the resulting coefficient functions of the three-element model describe the dynamic response to the step input of P accurately, indicating that the static perturbation results can be applied to the dynamic case. This model is further validated by accurately predicting the contraction response to a triangular P waveform. All three elements have pressure-dependent coefficients for pressure P in the range 207 < or = P < or = 621 kPa (30 < or = P < or = 90 psi). Studies with a step decrease in P (relaxation of the PM) indicate that the damping element coefficient is smaller during relaxation than contraction.

  14. A new heat flux model for the Antarctic Peninsula incorporating spatially variable upper crustal radiogenic heat production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burton-Johnson, A.; Halpin, J.; Whittaker, J. M.; Graham, F. S.; Watson, S. J.

    2017-12-01

    We present recently published findings (Burton-Johnson et al., 2017) on the variability of Antarctic sub-glacial heat flux and the impact from upper crustal geology. Our new method reveals that the upper crust contributes up to 70% of the Antarctic Peninsula's subglacial heat flux, and that heat flux values are more variable at smaller spatial resolutions than geophysical methods can resolve. Results indicate a higher heat flux on the east and south of the Peninsula (mean 81 mWm-2) where silicic rocks predominate, than on the west and north (mean 67 mWm-2) where volcanic arc and quartzose sediments are dominant. Whilst the data supports the contribution of HPE-enriched granitic rocks to high heat flux values, sedimentary rocks can be of comparative importance dependent on their provenance and petrography. Models of subglacial heat flux must utilize a heterogeneous upper crust with variable radioactive heat production if they are to accurately predict basal conditions of the ice sheet. Our new methodology and dataset facilitate improved numerical model simulations of ice sheet dynamics. The most significant challenge faced remains accurate determination of crustal structure, particularly the depths of the HPE-enriched sedimentary basins and the sub-glacial geology away from exposed outcrops. Continuing research (particularly detailed geophysical interpretation) will better constrain these unknowns and the effect of upper crustal geology on the Antarctic ice sheet. Burton-Johnson, A., Halpin, J.A., Whittaker, J.M., Graham, F.S., and Watson, S.J., 2017, A new heat flux model for the Antarctic Peninsula incorporating spatially variable upper crustal radiogenic heat production: Geophysical Research Letters, v. 44, doi: 10.1002/2017GL073596.

  15. Simple mathematical models of gene regulatory dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Mackey, Michael C; Tyran-Kamińska, Marta; Zeron, Eduardo S

    2016-01-01

    This is a short and self-contained introduction to the field of mathematical modeling of gene-networks in bacteria. As an entry point to the field, we focus on the analysis of simple gene-network dynamics. The notes commence with an introduction to the deterministic modeling of gene-networks, with extensive reference to applicable results coming from dynamical systems theory. The second part of the notes treats extensively several approaches to the study of gene-network dynamics in the presence of noise—either arising from low numbers of molecules involved, or due to noise external to the regulatory process. The third and final part of the notes gives a detailed treatment of three well studied and concrete examples of gene-network dynamics by considering the lactose operon, the tryptophan operon, and the lysis-lysogeny switch. The notes contain an index for easy location of particular topics as well as an extensive bibliography of the current literature. The target audience of these notes are mainly graduat...

  16. Computational fluid dynamic modelling of cavitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deshpande, Manish; Feng, Jinzhang; Merkle, Charles L.

    1993-01-01

    Models in sheet cavitation in cryogenic fluids are developed for use in Euler and Navier-Stokes codes. The models are based upon earlier potential-flow models but enable the cavity inception point, length, and shape to be determined as part of the computation. In the present paper, numerical solutions are compared with experimental measurements for both pressure distribution and cavity length. Comparisons between models are also presented. The CFD model provides a relatively simple modification to an existing code to enable cavitation performance predictions to be included. The analysis also has the added ability of incorporating thermodynamic effects of cryogenic fluids into the analysis. Extensions of the current two-dimensional steady state analysis to three-dimensions and/or time-dependent flows are, in principle, straightforward although geometrical issues become more complicated. Linearized models, however offer promise of providing effective cavitation modeling in three-dimensions. This analysis presents good potential for improved understanding of many phenomena associated with cavity flows.

  17. Incorporating Geochemical And Microbial Kinetics In Reactive Transport Models For Generation Of Acid Rock Drainage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andre, B. J.; Rajaram, H.; Silverstein, J.

    2010-12-01

    diffusion model at the scale of a single rock is developed incorporating the proposed kinetic rate expressions. Simulations of initiation, washout and AMD flows are discussed to gain a better understanding of the role of porosity, effective diffusivity and reactive surface area in generating AMD. Simulations indicate that flow boundary conditions control generation of acid rock drainage as porosity increases.

  18. Functional dynamic factor models with application to yield curve forecasting

    KAUST Repository

    Hays, Spencer

    2012-09-01

    Accurate forecasting of zero coupon bond yields for a continuum of maturities is paramount to bond portfolio management and derivative security pricing. Yet a universal model for yield curve forecasting has been elusive, and prior attempts often resulted in a trade-off between goodness of fit and consistency with economic theory. To address this, herein we propose a novel formulation which connects the dynamic factor model (DFM) framework with concepts from functional data analysis: a DFM with functional factor loading curves. This results in a model capable of forecasting functional time series. Further, in the yield curve context we show that the model retains economic interpretation. Model estimation is achieved through an expectation- maximization algorithm, where the time series parameters and factor loading curves are simultaneously estimated in a single step. Efficient computing is implemented and a data-driven smoothing parameter is nicely incorporated. We show that our model performs very well on forecasting actual yield data compared with existing approaches, especially in regard to profit-based assessment for an innovative trading exercise. We further illustrate the viability of our model to applications outside of yield forecasting.

  19. Semiclassical theory of electronically nonadiabatic chemical dynamics: Incorporation of the Zhu-Nakamura theory into the frozen Gaussian propagation method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kondorskiy, A.; Nakamura, H.

    2004-01-01

    The title theory is developed by combining the Herman-Kluk semiclassical theory for adiabatic propagation on single potential-energy surface and the semiclassical Zhu-Nakamura theory for nonadiabatic transition. The formulation with use of natural mathematical principles leads to a quite simple expression for the propagator based on classical trajectories and simple formulas are derived for overall adiabatic and nonadiabatic processes. The theory is applied to electronically nonadiabatic photodissociation processes: a one-dimensional problem of H 2 + in a cw (continuous wave) laser field and a two-dimensional model problem of H 2 O in a cw laser field. The theory is found to work well for the propagation duration of several molecular vibrational periods and wide energy range. Although the formulation is made for the case of laser induced nonadiabatic processes, it is straightforwardly applicable to ordinary electronically nonadiabatic chemical dynamics

  20. Dynamical Analysis of bantam-Regulated Drosophila Circadian Rhythm Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ying; Liu, Zengrong

    MicroRNAs (miRNAs) interact with 3‧untranslated region (UTR) elements of target genes to regulate mRNA stability or translation, and play a crucial role in regulating many different biological processes. bantam, a conserved miRNA, is involved in several functions, such as regulating Drosophila growth and circadian rhythm. Recently, it has been discovered that bantam plays a crucial role in the core circadian pacemaker. In this paper, based on experimental observations, a detailed dynamical model of bantam-regulated circadian clock system is developed to show the post-transcriptional behaviors in the modulation of Drosophila circadian rhythm, in which the regulation of bantam is incorporated into a classical model. The dynamical behaviors of the model are consistent with the experimental observations, which shows that bantam is an important regulator of Drosophila circadian rhythm. The sensitivity analysis of parameters demonstrates that with the regulation of bantam the system is more sensitive to perturbations, indicating that bantam regulation makes it easier for the organism to modulate its period against the environmental perturbations. The effectiveness in rescuing locomotor activity rhythms of mutated flies shows that bantam is necessary for strong and sustained rhythms. In addition, the biological mechanisms of bantam regulation are analyzed, which may help us more clearly understand Drosophila circadian rhythm regulated by other miRNAs.

  1. Modeling of Dynamic Responses in Building Insulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Antonyová

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available In this research a measurement systemwas developedfor monitoring humidity and temperature in the cavity between the wall and the insulating material in the building envelope. This new technology does not disturb the insulating material during testing. The measurement system can also be applied to insulation fixed ten or twenty years earlier and sufficiently reveals the quality of the insulation. A mathematical model is proposed to characterize the dynamic responses in the cavity between the wall and the building insulation as influenced by weather conditions.These dynamic responses are manifested as a delay of both humidity and temperature changes in the cavity when compared with the changes in the ambient surrounding of the building. The process is then modeled through numerical methods and statistical analysis of the experimental data obtained using the new system of measurement.

  2. Incorporating Prognostic Marine Nitrogen Fixers and Related Bio-Physical Feedbacks in an Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paulsen, H.; Ilyina, T.; Six, K. D.

    2016-02-01

    Marine nitrogen fixers play a fundamental role in the oceanic nitrogen and carbon cycles by providing a major source of `new' nitrogen to the euphotic zone that supports biological carbon export and sequestration. Furthermore, nitrogen fixers may regionally have a direct impact on ocean physics and hence the climate system as they form extensive surface mats which can increase light absorption and surface albedo and reduce the momentum input by wind. Resulting alterations in temperature and stratification may feed back on nitrogen fixers' growth itself.We incorporate nitrogen fixers as a prognostic 3D tracer in the ocean biogeochemical component (HAMOCC) of the Max Planck Institute Earth system model and assess for the first time the impact of related bio-physical feedbacks on biogeochemistry and the climate system.The model successfully reproduces recent estimates of global nitrogen fixation rates, as well as the observed distribution of nitrogen fixers, covering large parts of the tropical and subtropical oceans. First results indicate that including bio-physical feedbacks has considerable effects on the upper ocean physics in this region. Light absorption by nitrogen fixers leads locally to surface heating, subsurface cooling, and mixed layer depth shoaling in the subtropical gyres. As a result, equatorial upwelling is increased, leading to surface cooling at the equator. This signal is damped by the effect of the reduced wind stress due to the presence of cyanobacteria mats, which causes a reduction in the wind-driven circulation, and hence a reduction in equatorial upwelling. The increase in surface albedo due to nitrogen fixers has only inconsiderable effects. The response of nitrogen fixers' growth to the alterations in temperature and stratification varies regionally. Simulations with the fully coupled Earth system model are in progress to assess the implications of the biologically induced changes in upper ocean physics for the global climate system.

  3. Dynamic energy-demand models. A comparison

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yi, Feng

    2000-01-01

    This paper compares two second-generation dynamic energy demand models, a translog (TL) and a general Leontief (GL), in the study of price elasticities and factor substitutions of nine Swedish manufacturing industries: food, textiles, wood, paper, printing, chemicals, non-metallic minerals, base metals and machinery. Several model specifications are tested with likelihood ratio test. There is a disagreement on short-run adjustments; the TL model accepts putty-putty production technology of immediate adjustments, implying equal short- and long-run price elasticities of factors, while the GL model rejects immediate adjustments, giving out short-run elasticities quite different from the long-run. The two models also disagree in substitutability in many cases. 21 refs

  4. The dynamic radiation environment assimilation model (DREAM)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reeves, Geoffrey D.; Koller, Josef; Tokar, Robert L.; Chen, Yue; Henderson, Michael G.; Friedel, Reiner H.

    2010-01-01

    The Dynamic Radiation Environment Assimilation Model (DREAM) is a 3-year effort sponsored by the US Department of Energy to provide global, retrospective, or real-time specification of the natural and potential nuclear radiation environments. The DREAM model uses Kalman filtering techniques that combine the strengths of new physical models of the radiation belts with electron observations from long-term satellite systems such as GPS and geosynchronous systems. DREAM includes a physics model for the production and long-term evolution of artificial radiation belts from high altitude nuclear explosions. DREAM has been validated against satellites in arbitrary orbits and consistently produces more accurate results than existing models. Tools for user-specific applications and graphical displays are in beta testing and a real-time version of DREAM has been in continuous operation since November 2009.

  5. Using a cognitive architecture in educational and recreational games : How to incorporate a model in your App

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Taatgen, Niels A.; de Weerd, Harmen; Reitter, David; Ritter, Frank

    2016-01-01

    We present a Swift re-implementation of the ACT-R cognitive architecture, which can be used to quickly build iOS Apps that incorporate an ACT-R model as a core feature. We discuss how this implementation can be used in an example model, and explore the breadth of possibilities by presenting six Apps

  6. Adolescent Decision-Making Processes regarding University Entry: A Model Incorporating Cultural Orientation, Motivation and Occupational Variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Jae Yup

    2013-01-01

    This study tested a newly developed model of the cognitive decision-making processes of senior high school students related to university entry. The model incorporated variables derived from motivation theory (i.e. expectancy-value theory and the theory of reasoned action), literature on cultural orientation and occupational considerations. A…

  7. Incorporating genetic variation into a model of budburst phenology of coast Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter J. Gould; Constance A. Harrington; Bradley J. St Clair

    2011-01-01

    Models to predict budburst and other phenological events in plants are needed to forecast how climate change may impact ecosystems and for the development of mitigation strategies. Differences among genotypes are important to predicting phenological events in species that show strong clinal variation in adaptive traits. We present a model that incorporates the effects...

  8. Molecular dynamics modeling of polymer flammability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nyden, M.R.; Brown, J.E.; Lomakin, S.M.

    1992-01-01

    Molecular dynamic simulations were used to identify factors which promote char formation during the thermal degradation of polymers. Computer movies based on these simulations, indicate that cross-linked model polymers tend to undergo further cross-linking when burned, eventually forming a high molecular weight, thermally stable char. This paper reports that the prediction was confirmed by char yield measurements made on γ and e - -irradiated polyethylene and chemically cross-linked poly(methyl methacrylate)

  9. Dynamical chaos and beam-beam models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Izrailev, F.M.

    1990-01-01

    Some aspects of the nonlinear dynamics of beam-beam interaction for simple one-dimensional and two-dimensional models of round and flat beams are discussed. The main attention is paid to the stochasticity threshold due to the overlapping of nonlinear resonances. The peculiarities of a round beam are investigated in view of using the round beams in storage rings to get high luminosity. 16 refs.; 7 figs

  10. Dynamical Model for Indoor Radon Concentration Monitoring

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Brabec, Marek; Jílek, K.

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 20, č. 6 (2009), s. 718-729 ISSN 1180-4009. [TIES 2007. Annual Meeting of the International Environmental Society /18./. Mikulov, 16.08.2007-20.08.2007] Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : non-parametric regression * dynamic modeling * time-varying coefficients Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 1.000, year: 2009

  11. Dynamical symmetries of the shell model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Isacker, P.

    2000-01-01

    The applications of spectrum generating algebras and of dynamical symmetries in the nuclear shell model are many and varied. They stretch back to Wigner's early work on the supermultiplet model and encompass important landmarks in our understanding of the structure of the atomic nucleus such as Racah's SU(2) pairing model and Elliot's SU(3) rotational model. One of the aims of this contribution has been to show the historical importance of the idea of dynamical symmetry in nuclear physics. Another has been to indicate that, in spite of being old, this idea continues to inspire developments that are at the forefront of today's research in nuclear physics. It has been argued in this contribution that the main driving features of nuclear structure can be represented algebraically but at the same time the limitations of the symmetry approach must be recognised. It should be clear that such approach can only account for gross properties and that any detailed description requires more involved numerical calculations of which we have seen many fine examples during this symposium. In this way symmetry techniques can be used as an appropriate starting point for detailed calculations. A noteworthy example of this approach is the pseudo-SU(3) model which starting from its initial symmetry Ansatz has grown into an adequate and powerful description of the nucleus in terms of a truncated shell model. (author)

  12. A model for nuclear research reactor dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barati, Ramin, E-mail: Barati.ramin@aut.ac.ir; Setayeshi, Saeed, E-mail: setayesh@aut.ac.ir

    2013-09-15

    Highlights: • A thirty-fourth order model is used to simulate the dynamics of a research reactor. • We consider delayed neutrons fraction as a function of time. • Variable fuel and temperature reactivity coefficients are used. • WIMS, BORGES and CITVAP codes are used for initial condition calculations. • Results are in agreement with experimental data rather than common codes. -- Abstract: In this paper, a useful thirty-fourth order model is presented to simulate the kinetics and dynamics of a research reactor core. The model considers relevant physical phenomena that govern the core such as reactor kinetics, reactivity feedbacks due to coolant and fuel temperatures (Doppler effects) with variable reactivity coefficients, xenon, samarium, boron concentration, fuel burn up and thermal hydraulics. WIMS and CITVAP codes are used to extract neutron cross sections and calculate the initial neuron flux respectively. The purpose is to present a model with results similar to reality as much as possible with reducing common simplifications in reactor modeling to be used in different analyses such as reactor control, functional reliability and safety. The model predictions are qualified by comparing with experimental data, detailed simulations of reactivity insertion transients, and steady state for Tehran research reactor reported in the literature and satisfactory results have been obtained.

  13. A diagnostic model incorporating P50 sensory gating and neuropsychological tests for schizophrenia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jia-Chi Shan

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: Endophenotypes in schizophrenia research is a contemporary approach to studying this heterogeneous mental illness, and several candidate neurophysiological markers (e.g. P50 sensory gating and neuropsychological tests (e.g. Continuous Performance Test (CPT and Wisconsin Card Sorting Test (WCST have been proposed. However, the clinical utility of a single marker appears to be limited. In the present study, we aimed to construct a diagnostic model incorporating P50 sensory gating with other neuropsychological tests in order to improve the clinical utility. METHODS: We recruited clinically stable outpatients meeting DSM-IV criteria of schizophrenia and age- and gender-matched healthy controls. Participants underwent P50 sensory gating experimental sessions and batteries of neuropsychological tests, including CPT, WCST and Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale Third Edition (WAIS-III. RESULTS: A total of 106 schizophrenia patients and 74 healthy controls were enrolled. Compared with healthy controls, the patient group had significantly a larger S2 amplitude, and thus poorer P50 gating ratio (gating ratio = S2/S1. In addition, schizophrenia patients had a poorer performance on neuropsychological tests. We then developed a diagnostic model by using multivariable logistic regression analysis to differentiate patients from healthy controls. The final model included the following covariates: abnormal P50 gating (defined as P50 gating ratio >0.4, three subscales derived from the WAIS-III (Arithmetic, Block Design, and Performance IQ, sensitivity index from CPT and smoking status. This model had an adequate accuracy (concordant percentage = 90.4%; c-statistic = 0.904; Hosmer-Lemeshow Goodness-of-Fit Test, p = 0.64>0.05. CONCLUSION: To the best of our knowledge, this is the largest study to date using P50 sensory gating in subjects of Chinese ethnicity and the first to use P50 sensory gating along with other neuropsychological tests

  14. Incorporation of Fine-Grained Sediment Erodibility Measurements into Sediment Transport Modeling, Capitol Lake, Washington

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevens, Andrew W.; Gelfenbaum, Guy; Elias, Edwin; Jones, Craig

    2008-01-01

    lab with Sedflume, an apparatus for measuring sediment erosion-parameters. In this report, we present results of the characterization of fine-grained sediment erodibility within Capitol Lake. The erodibility data were incorporated into the previously developed hydrodynamic and sediment transport model. Model simulations using the measured erodibility parameters were conducted to provide more robust estimates of the overall magnitudes and spatial patterns of sediment transport resulting from restoration of the Deschutes Estuary.

  15. Comparison of joint modeling and landmarking for dynamic prediction under an illness-death model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suresh, Krithika; Taylor, Jeremy M G; Spratt, Daniel E; Daignault, Stephanie; Tsodikov, Alexander

    2017-11-01

    Dynamic prediction incorporates time-dependent marker information accrued during follow-up to improve personalized survival prediction probabilities. At any follow-up, or "landmark", time, the residual time distribution for an individual, conditional on their updated marker values, can be used to produce a dynamic prediction. To satisfy a consistency condition that links dynamic predictions at different time points, the residual time distribution must follow from a prediction function that models the joint distribution of the marker process and time to failure, such as a joint model. To circumvent the assumptions and computational burden associated with a joint model, approximate methods for dynamic prediction have been proposed. One such method is landmarking, which fits a Cox model at a sequence of landmark times, and thus is not a comprehensive probability model of the marker process and the event time. Considering an illness-death model, we derive the residual time distribution and demonstrate that the structure of the Cox model baseline hazard and covariate effects under the landmarking approach do not have simple form. We suggest some extensions of the landmark Cox model that should provide a better approximation. We compare the performance of the landmark models with joint models using simulation studies and cognitive aging data from the PAQUID study. We examine the predicted probabilities produced under both methods using data from a prostate cancer study, where metastatic clinical failure is a time-dependent covariate for predicting death following radiation therapy. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  16. New method dynamically models hydrocarbon fractionation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kesler, M.G.; Weissbrod, J.M.; Sheth, B.V. [Kesler Engineering, East Brunswick, NJ (United States)

    1995-10-01

    A new method for calculating distillation column dynamics can be used to model time-dependent effects of independent disturbances for a range of hydrocarbon fractionation. It can model crude atmospheric and vacuum columns, with relatively few equilibrium stages and a large number of components, to C{sub 3} splitters, with few components and up to 300 equilibrium stages. Simulation results are useful for operations analysis, process-control applications and closed-loop control in petroleum, petrochemical and gas processing plants. The method is based on an implicit approach, where the time-dependent variations of inventory, temperatures, liquid and vapor flows and compositions are superimposed at each time step on the steady-state solution. Newton-Raphson (N-R) techniques are then used to simultaneously solve the resulting finite-difference equations of material, equilibrium and enthalpy balances that characterize distillation dynamics. The important innovation is component-aggregation and tray-aggregation to contract the equations without compromising accuracy. This contraction increases the N-R calculations` stability. It also significantly increases calculational speed, which is particularly important in dynamic simulations. This method provides a sound basis for closed-loop, supervisory control of distillation--directly or via multivariable controllers--based on a rigorous, phenomenological column model.

  17. Dynamic analysis of a parasite population model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sibona, G. J.; Condat, C. A.

    2002-03-01

    We study the dynamics of a model that describes the competitive interaction between an invading species (a parasite) and its antibodies in an living being. This model was recently used to examine the dynamical competition between Tripanosoma cruzi and its antibodies during the acute phase of Chagas' disease. Depending on the antibody properties, the model yields three types of outcomes, corresponding, respectively, to healing, chronic disease, and host death. Here, we study the dynamics of the parasite-antibody interaction with the help of simulations, obtaining phase trajectories and phase diagrams for the system. We show that, under certain conditions, the size of the parasite inoculation can be crucial for the infection outcome and that a retardation in the stimulated production of an antibody species may result in the parasite gaining a definitive advantage. We also find a criterion for the relative sizes of the parameters that are required if parasite-generated decoys are indeed to help the invasion. Decoys may also induce a qualitatively different outcome: a limit cycle for the antibody-parasite population phase trajectories.

  18. Simple Models for the Dynamic Modeling of Rotating Tires

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.C. Delamotte

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Large Finite Element (FE models of tires are currently used to predict low frequency behavior and to obtain dynamic model coefficients used in multi-body models for riding and comfort. However, to predict higher frequency behavior, which may explain irregular wear, critical rotating speeds and noise radiation, FE models are not practical. Detailed FE models are not adequate for optimization and uncertainty predictions either, as in such applications the dynamic solution must be computed a number of times. Therefore, there is a need for simpler models that can capture the physics of the tire and be used to compute the dynamic response with a low computational cost. In this paper, the spectral (or continuous element approach is used to derive such a model. A circular beam spectral element that takes into account the string effect is derived, and a method to simulate the response to a rotating force is implemented in the frequency domain. The behavior of a circular ring under different internal pressures is investigated using modal and frequency/wavenumber representations. Experimental results obtained with a real untreaded truck tire are presented and qualitatively compared with the simple model predictions with good agreement. No attempt is made to obtain equivalent parameters for the simple model from the real tire results. On the other hand, the simple model fails to represent the correct variation of the quotient of the natural frequency by the number of circumferential wavelengths with the mode count. Nevertheless, some important features of the real tire dynamic behavior, such as the generation of standing waves and part of the frequency/wavenumber behavior, can be investigated using the proposed simplified model.

  19. Multistability and complex dynamics in a simple discrete economic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peng Mingshu; Jiang Zhonghao; Jiang Xiaoxia; Hu Jiping; Qu Youli

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we will propose a generalized Cournot duopoly model with Z 2 symmetry. We demonstrate that cost functions incorporating an interfirm externality lead to a system of couple one-dimensional maps. In the situation where agents take turns, we find in an analytic way that there coexist multiple unstable/stable period-2 cycles or synchronized/asynchronized periodic orbits. Coupling one-dimension chaos can be observed. In a more general situation, where agents move simultaneously, a closer analysis reveals some well-known local bifurcations and global bifurcations which typically occur in two-parameter families of two-dimensional discrete time dynamical systems, including codimension-one (fold-, flip-, Neimark-Sacker-) bifurcations, codimension-two (fold/flip, 1:2 resonance, 1:3 resonance and 1:4 resonance) bifurcations, and hetero-clinic, homo-clinic bifurcations, etc. Multistability, including the coexistence of synchronized/asynchronized solutions are also discussed.

  20. Dynamical model of birdsong maintenance and control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abarbanel, Henry D. I.; Talathi, Sachin S.; Mindlin, Gabriel; Rabinovich, Misha; Gibb, Leif

    2004-11-01

    The neuroethology of song learning, production, and maintenance in songbirds presents interesting similarities to human speech. We have developed a biophysical model of the manner in which song could be maintained in adult songbirds. This model may inform us about the human counterpart to these processes. In songbirds, signals generated in nucleus High Vocal center (HVc) follow a direct route along a premotor pathway to the robust nucleus of the archistriatum (RA) as well as an indirect route to RA through the anterior forebrain pathway (AFP): the neurons of RA are innervated from both sources. HVc expresses very sparse bursts of spikes having interspike intervals of about 2ms . The expressions of these bursts arrive at the RA with a time difference ΔT≈50±10ms between the two pathways. The observed combination of AMPA and NMDA receptors at RA projection neurons suggests that long-term potentiation and long-term depression can both be induced by spike timing plasticity through the pairing of the HVc and AFP signals. We present a dynamical model that stabilizes this synaptic plasticity through a feedback from the RA to the AFP using known connections. The stabilization occurs dynamically and is absent when the RA→AFP connection is removed. This requires a dynamical selection of ΔT . The model does this, and ΔT lies within the observed range. Our model represents an illustration of a functional consequence of activity-dependent plasticity directly connected with neuroethological observations. Within the model the parameters of the AFP, and thus the magnitude of ΔT , can also be tuned to an unstable regime. This means that destabilization might be induced by neuromodulation of the AFP.

  1. At the Frontiers of Modeling Intensive Longitudinal Data: Dynamic Structural Equation Models for the Affective Measurements from the COGITO Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamaker, E L; Asparouhov, T; Brose, A; Schmiedek, F; Muthén, B

    2018-04-06

    With the growing popularity of intensive longitudinal research, the modeling techniques and software options for such data are also expanding rapidly. Here we use dynamic multilevel modeling, as it is incorporated in the new dynamic structural equation modeling (DSEM) toolbox in Mplus, to analyze the affective data from the COGITO study. These data consist of two samples of over 100 individuals each who were measured for about 100 days. We use composite scores of positive and negative affect and apply a multilevel vector autoregressive model to allow for individual differences in means, autoregressions, and cross-lagged effects. Then we extend the model to include random residual variances and covariance, and finally we investigate whether prior depression affects later depression scores through the random effects of the daily diary measures. We end with discussing several urgent-but mostly unresolved-issues in the area of dynamic multilevel modeling.

  2. Incorporation of GRACE Data into a Bayesian Model for Groundwater Drought Monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slinski, K.; Hogue, T. S.; McCray, J. E.; Porter, A.

    2015-12-01

    Groundwater drought, defined as the sustained occurrence of below average availability of groundwater, is marked by below average water levels in aquifers and reduced flows to groundwater-fed rivers and wetlands. The impact of groundwater drought on ecosystems, agriculture, municipal water supply, and the energy sector is an increasingly important global issue. However, current drought monitors heavily rely on precipitation and vegetative stress indices to characterize the timing, duration, and severity of drought events. The paucity of in situ observations of aquifer levels is a substantial obstacle to the development of systems to monitor groundwater drought in drought-prone areas, particularly in developing countries. Observations from the NASA/German Space Agency's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) have been used to estimate changes in groundwater storage over areas with sparse point measurements. This study incorporates GRACE total water storage observations into a Bayesian framework to assess the performance of a probabilistic model for monitoring groundwater drought based on remote sensing data. Overall, it is hoped that these methods will improve global drought preparedness and risk reduction by providing information on groundwater drought necessary to manage its impacts on ecosystems, as well as on the agricultural, municipal, and energy sectors.

  3. Incorporating organizational factors into probabilistic safety assessment of nuclear power plants through canonical probabilistic models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Galan, S.F. [Dpto. de Inteligencia Artificial, E.T.S.I. Informatica (UNED), Juan del Rosal, 16, 28040 Madrid (Spain)]. E-mail: seve@dia.uned.es; Mosleh, A. [2100A Marie Mount Hall, Materials and Nuclear Engineering Department, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742 (United States)]. E-mail: mosleh@umd.edu; Izquierdo, J.M. [Area de Modelado y Simulacion, Consejo de Seguridad Nuclear, Justo Dorado, 11, 28040 Madrid (Spain)]. E-mail: jmir@csn.es

    2007-08-15

    The {omega}-factor approach is a method that explicitly incorporates organizational factors into Probabilistic safety assessment of nuclear power plants. Bayesian networks (BNs) are the underlying formalism used in this approach. They have a structural part formed by a graph whose nodes represent organizational variables, and a parametric part that consists of conditional probabilities, each of them quantifying organizational influences between one variable and its parents in the graph. The aim of this paper is twofold. First, we discuss some important limitations of current procedures in the {omega}-factor approach for either assessing conditional probabilities from experts or estimating them from data. We illustrate the discussion with an example that uses data from Licensee Events Reports of nuclear power plants for the estimation task. Second, we introduce significant improvements in the way BNs for the {omega}-factor approach can be constructed, so that parameter acquisition becomes easier and more intuitive. The improvements are based on the use of noisy-OR gates as model of multicausal interaction between each BN node and its parents.

  4. Incorporating organizational factors into probabilistic safety assessment of nuclear power plants through canonical probabilistic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galan, S.F.; Mosleh, A.; Izquierdo, J.M.

    2007-01-01

    The ω-factor approach is a method that explicitly incorporates organizational factors into Probabilistic safety assessment of nuclear power plants. Bayesian networks (BNs) are the underlying formalism used in this approach. They have a structural part formed by a graph whose nodes represent organizational variables, and a parametric part that consists of conditional probabilities, each of them quantifying organizational influences between one variable and its parents in the graph. The aim of this paper is twofold. First, we discuss some important limitations of current procedures in the ω-factor approach for either assessing conditional probabilities from experts or estimating them from data. We illustrate the discussion with an example that uses data from Licensee Events Reports of nuclear power plants for the estimation task. Second, we introduce significant improvements in the way BNs for the ω-factor approach can be constructed, so that parameter acquisition becomes easier and more intuitive. The improvements are based on the use of noisy-OR gates as model of multicausal interaction between each BN node and its parents

  5. Nonparametric modeling of dynamic functional connectivity in fmri data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Søren Føns Vind; Madsen, Kristoffer H.; Røge, Rasmus

    2015-01-01

    dynamic changes. The existing approaches modeling dynamic connectivity have primarily been based on time-windowing the data and k-means clustering. We propose a nonparametric generative model for dynamic FC in fMRI that does not rely on specifying window lengths and number of dynamic states. Rooted...

  6. Chancroid transmission dynamics: a mathematical modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhunu, C P; Mushayabasa, S

    2011-12-01

    Mathematical models have long been used to better understand disease transmission dynamics and how to effectively control them. Here, a chancroid infection model is presented and analyzed. The disease-free equilibrium is shown to be globally asymptotically stable when the reproduction number is less than unity. High levels of treatment are shown to reduce the reproduction number suggesting that treatment has the potential to control chancroid infections in any given community. This result is also supported by numerical simulations which show a decline in chancroid cases whenever the reproduction number is less than unity.

  7. Population Model with a Dynamic Food Supply

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickman, Ronald; da Silva Nascimento, Jonas

    2009-09-01

    We propose a simple population model including the food supply as a dynamic variable. In the model, survival of an organism depends on a certain minimum rate of food consumption; a higher rate of consumption is required for reproduction. We investigate the stationary behavior under steady food input, and the transient behavior of growth and decay when food is present initially but is not replenished. Under a periodic food supply, the system exhibits period-doubling bifurcations and chaos in certain ranges of the reproduction rate. Bifurcations and chaos are favored by a slow reproduction rate and a long period of food-supply oscillation.

  8. Conceptual Model of Dynamic Geographic Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martínez-Rosales Miguel Alejandro

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available In geographic environments, there are many and different types of geographic entities such as automobiles, trees, persons, buildings, storms, hurricanes, etc. These entities can be classified into two groups: geographic objects and geographic phenomena. By its nature, a geographic environment is dynamic, thus, it’s static modeling is not sufficient. Considering the dynamics of geographic environment, a new type of geographic entity called event is introduced. The primary target is a modeling of geographic environment as an event sequence, because in this case the semantic relations are much richer than in the case of static modeling. In this work, the conceptualization of this model is proposed. It is based on the idea to process each entity apart instead of processing the environment as a whole. After that, the so called history of each entity and its spatial relations to other entities are defined to describe the whole environment. The main goal is to model systems at a conceptual level that make use of spatial and temporal information, so that later it can serve as the semantic engine for such systems.

  9. Modeling the Dynamic Digestive System Microbiome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anne M. Estes

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available “Modeling the Dynamic Digestive System Microbiome” is a hands-on activity designed to demonstrate the dynamics of microbiome ecology using dried pasta and beans to model disturbance events in the human digestive system microbiome. This exercise demonstrates how microbiome diversity is influenced by: 1 niche availability and habitat space and 2 a major disturbance event, such as antibiotic use. Students use a pictorial key to examine prepared models of digestive system microbiomes to determine what the person with the microbiome “ate.” Students then model the effect of taking antibiotics by removing certain “antibiotic sensitive” pasta. Finally, they add in “environmental microbes” or “native microbes” to recolonize the digestive system, determine how resilient their model microbome community is to disturbance, and discuss the implications. Throughout the exercise, students discuss differences in the habitat space available and microbiome community diversity. This exercise can be modified to discuss changes in the microbiome due to diet shifts and the emergence of antibiotic resistance in more depth.

  10. Quadratic tracer dynamical models tobacco growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qiang Jiyi; Hua Cuncai; Wang Shaohua

    2011-01-01

    In order to study the non-uniformly transferring process of some tracer dosages, we assume that the absorption of some tracer by tobacco is a quadratic function of the tracer quantity of the tracer in the case of fast absorption, whereas the exclusion of the tracer from tobacco is a linear function of the tracer quantity in the case of slow exclusion, after the tracer is introduced into tobacco once at zero time. A single-compartment quadratic dynamical model of Logistic type is established for the leaves of tobacco. Then, a two-compartment quadratic dynamical model is established for leaves and calms of the tobacco. Qualitative analysis of the models shows that the tracer applied to the leaves of the tobacco is excluded finally; however, the tracer stays at the tobacco for finite time. Two methods are also given for computing the parameters in the models. Finally, the results of the models are verified by the 32 P experiment for the absorption of tobacco. (authors)

  11. Dynamical regimes due to technological change in a microeconomical model of production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamacher, K.

    2012-09-01

    We develop a microeconomical model to investigate the impact of technological change onto production decisions of suppliers—modeling an effective feedback mechanism of the market. An important property—the time horizon of production planning—is related to the Kolmogorov entropy of the one-dimensional maps describing price dynamics. We simulate this price dynamics in an ensemble representing the whole macroeconomy. We show how this model can be used to support ongoing research in economic growth and incorporate the obtained microeconomic findings into the discussion about appropriate macroeconomic quantities such as the production function—thus effectively underpinning macroeconomics with microeconomical dynamics. From there we can show that the model exhibits different dynamical regimes (suggesting "phase transitions") with respect to an order parameter. The non-linear feedback under technological change was found to be the crucial mechanism. The implications of the obtained regimes are finally discussed.

  12. A multiscale model for virus capsid dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Changjun; Saxena, Rishu; Wei, Guo-Wei

    2010-01-01

    Viruses are infectious agents that can cause epidemics and pandemics. The understanding of virus formation, evolution, stability, and interaction with host cells is of great importance to the scientific community and public health. Typically, a virus complex in association with its aquatic environment poses a fabulous challenge to theoretical description and prediction. In this work, we propose a differential geometry-based multiscale paradigm to model complex biomolecule systems. In our approach, the differential geometry theory of surfaces and geometric measure theory are employed as a natural means to couple the macroscopic continuum domain of the fluid mechanical description of the aquatic environment from the microscopic discrete domain of the atomistic description of the biomolecule. A multiscale action functional is constructed as a unified framework to derive the governing equations for the dynamics of different scales. We show that the classical Navier-Stokes equation for the fluid dynamics and Newton's equation for the molecular dynamics can be derived from the least action principle. These equations are coupled through the continuum-discrete interface whose dynamics is governed by potential driven geometric flows.

  13. A Multiscale Model for Virus Capsid Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Changjun Chen

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Viruses are infectious agents that can cause epidemics and pandemics. The understanding of virus formation, evolution, stability, and interaction with host cells is of great importance to the scientific community and public health. Typically, a virus complex in association with its aquatic environment poses a fabulous challenge to theoretical description and prediction. In this work, we propose a differential geometry-based multiscale paradigm to model complex biomolecule systems. In our approach, the differential geometry theory of surfaces and geometric measure theory are employed as a natural means to couple the macroscopic continuum domain of the fluid mechanical description of the aquatic environment from the microscopic discrete domain of the atomistic description of the biomolecule. A multiscale action functional is constructed as a unified framework to derive the governing equations for the dynamics of different scales. We show that the classical Navier-Stokes equation for the fluid dynamics and Newton's equation for the molecular dynamics can be derived from the least action principle. These equations are coupled through the continuum-discrete interface whose dynamics is governed by potential driven geometric flows.

  14. Incorporating prior information into differential network analysis using non-paranormal graphical models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiao-Fei; Ou-Yang, Le; Yan, Hong

    2017-08-15

    Understanding how gene regulatory networks change under different cellular states is important for revealing insights into network dynamics. Gaussian graphical models, which assume that the data follow a joint normal distribution, have been used recently to infer differential networks. However, the distributions of the omics data are non-normal in general. Furthermore, although much biological knowledge (or prior information) has been accumulated, most existing methods ignore the valuable prior information. Therefore, new statistical methods are needed to relax the normality assumption and make full use of prior information. We propose a new differential network analysis method to address the above challenges. Instead of using Gaussian graphical models, we employ a non-paranormal graphical model that can relax the normality assumption. We develop a principled model to take into account the following prior information: (i) a differential edge less likely exists between two genes that do not participate together in the same pathway; (ii) changes in the networks are driven by certain regulator genes that are perturbed across different cellular states and (iii) the differential networks estimated from multi-view gene expression data likely share common structures. Simulation studies demonstrate that our method outperforms other graphical model-based algorithms. We apply our method to identify the differential networks between platinum-sensitive and platinum-resistant ovarian tumors, and the differential networks between the proneural and mesenchymal subtypes of glioblastoma. Hub nodes in the estimated differential networks rediscover known cancer-related regulator genes and contain interesting predictions. The source code is at https://github.com/Zhangxf-ccnu/pDNA. szuouyl@gmail.com. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author (2017). Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

  15. An evaluation of a paediatric radiation oncology teaching programme incorporating a SCORPIO teaching model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahern, Verity; Klein, Linda; Bentvelzen, Adam; Garlan, Karen; Jeffery, Heather

    2011-04-01

    Many radiation oncology registrars have no exposure to paediatrics during their training. To address this, the Paediatric Special Interest Group of the Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Radiologists has convened a biennial teaching course since 1997. The 2009 course incorporated the use of a Structured, Clinical, Objective-Referenced, Problem-orientated, Integrated and Organized (SCORPIO) teaching model for small group tutorials. This study evaluates whether the paediatric radiation oncology curriculum can be adapted to the SCORPIO teaching model and to evaluate the revised course from the registrars' perspective. Teaching and learning resources included a pre-course reading list, a lecture series programme and a SCORPIO workshop. Three evaluation instruments were developed: an overall Course Evaluation Survey for all participants, a SCORPIO Workshop Survey for registrars and a Teacher's SCORPIO Workshop Survey. Forty-five radiation oncology registrars, 14 radiation therapists and five paediatric oncology registrars attended. Seventy-three per cent (47/64) of all participants completed the Course Evaluation Survey and 95% (38/40) of registrars completed the SCORPIO Workshop Survey. All teachers completed the Teacher's SCORPIO Survey (10/10). The overall educational experience was rated as good or excellent by 93% (43/47) of respondents. Ratings of satisfaction with lecture sessions were predominantly good or excellent. Registrars gave the SCORPIO workshop high ratings on each of 10 aspects of quality, with 82% allocating an excellent rating overall for the SCORPIO activity. Both registrars and teachers recommended more time for the SCORPIO stations. The 2009 course met the educational needs of the radiation oncology registrars and the SCORPIO workshop was a highly valued educational component. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Medical Imaging and Radiation Oncology © 2011 The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Radiologists.

  16. AFDM: An Advanced Fluid-Dynamics Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bohl, W.R.; Parker, F.R.; Wilhelm, D.; Goutagny, L.; Ninokata, H.

    1990-09-01

    AFDM, or the Advanced Fluid-Dynamics Model, is a computer code that investigates new approaches simulating the multiphase-flow fluid-dynamics aspects of severe accidents in fast reactors. The AFDM formalism starts with differential equations similar to those in the SIMMER-II code. These equations are modified to treat three velocity fields and supplemented with a variety of new models. The AFDM code has 12 topologies describing what material contacts are possible depending on the presence or absence of a given material in a computational cell, on the dominant liquid, and on the continuous phase. Single-phase, bubbly, churn-turbulent, cellular, and dispersed flow regimes are permitted for the pool situations modeled. Virtual mass terms are included for vapor in liquid-continuous flow. Interfacial areas between the continuous and discontinuous phases are convected to allow some tracking of phenomenological histories. Interfacial areas are also modified by models of nucleation, dynamic forces, turbulence, flashing, coalescence, and mass transfer. Heat transfer is generally treated using engineering correlations. Liquid-vapor phase transitions are handled with the nonequilibrium, heat-transfer-limited model, whereas melting and freezing processes are based on equilibrium considerations. Convection is treated using a fractional-step method of time integration, including a semi-implicit pressure iteration. A higher-order differencing option is provided to control numerical diffusion. The Los Alamos SESAME equation-of-state has been implemented using densities and temperatures as the independent variables. AFDM programming has vectorized all computational loops consistent with the objective of producing an exportable code. 24 refs., 4 figs

  17. Mathematical modeling and applications in nonlinear dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Merdan, Hüseyin

    2016-01-01

    The book covers nonlinear physical problems and mathematical modeling, including molecular biology, genetics, neurosciences, artificial intelligence with classical problems in mechanics and astronomy and physics. The chapters present nonlinear mathematical modeling in life science and physics through nonlinear differential equations, nonlinear discrete equations and hybrid equations. Such modeling can be effectively applied to the wide spectrum of nonlinear physical problems, including the KAM (Kolmogorov-Arnold-Moser (KAM)) theory, singular differential equations, impulsive dichotomous linear systems, analytical bifurcation trees of periodic motions, and almost or pseudo- almost periodic solutions in nonlinear dynamical systems. Provides methods for mathematical models with switching, thresholds, and impulses, each of particular importance for discontinuous processes Includes qualitative analysis of behaviors on Tumor-Immune Systems and methods of analysis for DNA, neural networks and epidemiology Introduces...

  18. Dynamical models of happiness with fractional order

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Lei; Xu, Shiyun; Yang, Jianying

    2010-03-01

    This present study focuses on a dynamical model of happiness described through fractional-order differential equations. By categorizing people of different personality and different impact factor of memory (IFM) with different set of model parameters, it is demonstrated via numerical simulations that such fractional-order models could exhibit various behaviors with and without external circumstance. Moreover, control and synchronization problems of this model are discussed, which correspond to the control of emotion as well as emotion synchronization in real life. This study is an endeavor to combine the psychological knowledge with control problems and system theories, and some implications for psychotherapy as well as hints of a personal approach to life are both proposed.

  19. Modeling Computer Virus and Its Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mei Peng

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on that the computer will be infected by infected computer and exposed computer, and some of the computers which are in suscepitible status and exposed status can get immunity by antivirus ability, a novel coumputer virus model is established. The dynamic behaviors of this model are investigated. First, the basic reproduction number R0, which is a threshold of the computer virus spreading in internet, is determined. Second, this model has a virus-free equilibrium P0, which means that the infected part of the computer disappears, and the virus dies out, and P0 is a globally asymptotically stable equilibrium if R01 then this model has only one viral equilibrium P*, which means that the computer persists at a constant endemic level, and P* is also globally asymptotically stable. Finally, some numerical examples are given to demonstrate the analytical results.

  20. Continuous Time Dynamic Contraflow Models and Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Urmila Pyakurel

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The research on evacuation planning problem is promoted by the very challenging emergency issues due to large scale natural or man-created disasters. It is the process of shifting the maximum number of evacuees from the disastrous areas to the safe destinations as quickly and efficiently as possible. Contraflow is a widely accepted model for good solution of evacuation planning problem. It increases the outbound road capacity by reversing the direction of roads towards the safe destination. The continuous dynamic contraflow problem sends the maximum number of flow as a flow rate from the source to the sink in every moment of time unit. We propose the mathematical model for the continuous dynamic contraflow problem. We present efficient algorithms to solve the maximum continuous dynamic contraflow and quickest continuous contraflow problems on single source single sink arbitrary networks and continuous earliest arrival contraflow problem on single source single sink series-parallel networks with undefined supply and demand. We also introduce an approximation solution for continuous earliest arrival contraflow problem on two-terminal arbitrary networks.

  1. Coupling fast fluid dynamics and multizone airflow models in Modelica Buildings library to simulate the dynamics of HVAC systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tian, Wei [Univ. of Miami, FL (United States). Dept. of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering; Sevilla, Thomas Alonso [Univ. of Miami, FL (United States). Dept. of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering; Zuo, Wangda [Univ. of Miami, FL (United States). Dept. of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering; Sohn, Michael D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Energy Analysis and Environmental Impacts Div.

    2017-06-08

    Historically, multizone models are widely used in building airflow and energy performance simulations due to their fast computing speed. However, multizone models assume that the air in a room is well mixed, consequently limiting their application. In specific rooms where this assumption fails, the use of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models may be an alternative option. Previous research has mainly focused on coupling CFD models and multizone models to study airflow in large spaces. While significant, most of these analyses did not consider the coupled simulation of the building airflow with the building's Heating, Ventilation, and Air-Conditioning (HVAC) systems. This paper tries to fill the gap by integrating the models for HVAC systems with coupled multizone and CFD simulations for airflows, using the Modelica simul ation platform. To improve the computational efficiency, we incorporated a simplified CFD model named fast fluid dynamics (FFD). We first introduce the data synchronization strategy and implementation in Modelica. Then, we verify the implementation using two case studies involving an isothermal and a non-isothermal flow by comparing model simulations to experiment data. Afterward, we study another three cases that are deemed more realistic. This is done by attaching a variable air volume (VAV) terminal box and a VAV system to previous flows to assess the capability of the models in studying the dynamic control of HVAC systems. Finally, we discuss further research needs on the coupled simulation using the models.

  2. A paradigm for modeling and computation of gas dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Kun; Liu, Chang

    2017-02-01

    modeling methods, such as DSMC, particle in cell, and smooth particle hydrodynamics, play a dominant role to incorporate the flow physics into the algorithm construction directly. It is fully legitimate to combine the modeling and computation together without going through the process of constructing PDEs. In other words, the CFD research is not only to obtain the numerical solution of governing equations but to model flow dynamics as well. This methodology leads to the unified gas-kinetic scheme (UGKS) for flow simulation in all flow regimes. Based on UGKS, the boundary for the validation of the Navier-Stokes equations can be quantitatively evaluated. The combination of modeling and computation provides a paradigm for the description of multiscale transport process.

  3. Advances in dynamic network modeling in complex transportation systems

    CERN Document Server

    Ukkusuri, Satish V

    2013-01-01

    This book focuses on the latest in dynamic network modeling, including route guidance and traffic control in transportation systems and other complex infrastructure networks. Covers dynamic traffic assignment, flow modeling, mobile sensor deployment and more.

  4. Modelling the influence of sensory dynamics on linear and nonlinear driver steering control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nash, C. J.; Cole, D. J.

    2018-05-01

    A recent review of the literature has indicated that sensory dynamics play an important role in the driver-vehicle steering task, motivating the design of a new driver model incorporating human sensory systems. This paper presents a full derivation of the linear driver model developed in previous work, and extends the model to control a vehicle with nonlinear tyres. Various nonlinear controllers and state estimators are compared with different approximations of the true system dynamics. The model simulation time is found to increase significantly with the complexity of the controller and state estimator. In general the more complex controllers perform best, although with certain vehicle and tyre models linearised controllers perform as well as a full nonlinear optimisation. Various extended Kalman filters give similar results, although the driver's sensory dynamics reduce control performance compared with full state feedback. The new model could be used to design vehicle systems which interact more naturally and safely with a human driver.

  5. OFFl Models: Novel Schema for Dynamical Modeling of Biological Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogbunugafor, C Brandon; Robinson, Sean P

    2016-01-01

    Flow diagrams are a common tool used to help build and interpret models of dynamical systems, often in biological contexts such as consumer-resource models and similar compartmental models. Typically, their usage is intuitive and informal. Here, we present a formalized version of flow diagrams as a kind of weighted directed graph which follow a strict grammar, which translate into a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) by a single unambiguous rule, and which have an equivalent representation as a relational database. (We abbreviate this schema of "ODEs and formalized flow diagrams" as OFFL.) Drawing a diagram within this strict grammar encourages a mental discipline on the part of the modeler in which all dynamical processes of a system are thought of as interactions between dynamical species that draw parcels from one or more source species and deposit them into target species according to a set of transformation rules. From these rules, the net rate of change for each species can be derived. The modeling schema can therefore be understood as both an epistemic and practical heuristic for modeling, serving both as an organizational framework for the model building process and as a mechanism for deriving ODEs. All steps of the schema beyond the initial scientific (intuitive, creative) abstraction of natural observations into model variables are algorithmic and easily carried out by a computer, thus enabling the future development of a dedicated software implementation. Such tools would empower the modeler to consider significantly more complex models than practical limitations might have otherwise proscribed, since the modeling framework itself manages that complexity on the modeler's behalf. In this report, we describe the chief motivations for OFFL, carefully outline its implementation, and utilize a range of classic examples from ecology and epidemiology to showcase its features.

  6. OFFl Models: Novel Schema for Dynamical Modeling of Biological Systems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C Brandon Ogbunugafor

    Full Text Available Flow diagrams are a common tool used to help build and interpret models of dynamical systems, often in biological contexts such as consumer-resource models and similar compartmental models. Typically, their usage is intuitive and informal. Here, we present a formalized version of flow diagrams as a kind of weighted directed graph which follow a strict grammar, which translate into a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs by a single unambiguous rule, and which have an equivalent representation as a relational database. (We abbreviate this schema of "ODEs and formalized flow diagrams" as OFFL. Drawing a diagram within this strict grammar encourages a mental discipline on the part of the modeler in which all dynamical processes of a system are thought of as interactions between dynamical species that draw parcels from one or more source species and deposit them into target species according to a set of transformation rules. From these rules, the net rate of change for each species can be derived. The modeling schema can therefore be understood as both an epistemic and practical heuristic for modeling, serving both as an organizational framework for the model building process and as a mechanism for deriving ODEs. All steps of the schema beyond the initial scientific (intuitive, creative abstraction of natural observations into model variables are algorithmic and easily carried out by a computer, thus enabling the future development of a dedicated software implementation. Such tools would empower the modeler to consider significantly more complex models than practical limitations might have otherwise proscribed, since the modeling framework itself manages that complexity on the modeler's behalf. In this report, we describe the chief motivations for OFFL, carefully outline its implementation, and utilize a range of classic examples from ecology and epidemiology to showcase its features.

  7. Terrestrial Feedbacks Incorporated in Global Vegetation Models through Observed Trait-Environment Responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodegom, P. V.

    2015-12-01

    Most global vegetation models used to evaluate climate change impacts rely on plant functional types to describe vegetation responses to environmental stresses. In a traditional set-up in which vegetation characteristics are considered constant within a vegetation type, the possibility to implement and infer feedback mechanisms are limited as feedback mechanisms will likely involve a changing expression of community trait values. Based on community assembly concepts, we implemented functional trait-environment relationships into a global dynamic vegetation model to quantitatively assess this feature. For the current climate, a different global vegetation distribution was calculated with and without the inclusion of trait variation, emphasizing the importance of feedbacks -in interaction with competitive processes- for the prevailing global patterns. These trait-environmental responses do, however, not necessarily imply adaptive responses of vegetation to changing conditions and may locally lead to a faster turnover in vegetation upon climate change. Indeed, when running climate projections, simulations with trait variation did not yield a more stable or resilient vegetation than those without. Through the different feedback expressions, global and regional carbon and water fluxes were -however- strongly altered. At a global scale, model projections suggest an increased productivity and hence an increased carbon sink in the next decades to come, when including trait variation. However, by the end of the century, a reduced carbon sink is projected. This effect is due to a downregulation of photosynthesis rates, particularly in the tropical regions, even when accounting for CO2-fertilization effects. Altogether, the various global model simulations suggest the critical importance of including vegetation functional responses to changing environmental conditions to grasp terrestrial feedback mechanisms at global scales in the light of climate change.

  8. Dynamic modeling of gearbox faults: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Xihui; Zuo, Ming J.; Feng, Zhipeng

    2018-01-01

    Gearbox is widely used in industrial and military applications. Due to high service load, harsh operating conditions or inevitable fatigue, faults may develop in gears. If the gear faults cannot be detected early, the health will continue to degrade, perhaps causing heavy economic loss or even catastrophe. Early fault detection and diagnosis allows properly scheduled shutdowns to prevent catastrophic failure and consequently result in a safer operation and higher cost reduction. Recently, many studies have been done to develop gearbox dynamic models with faults aiming to understand gear fault generation mechanism and then develop effective fault detection and diagnosis methods. This paper focuses on dynamics based gearbox fault modeling, detection and diagnosis. State-of-art and challenges are reviewed and discussed. This detailed literature review limits research results to the following fundamental yet key aspects: gear mesh stiffness evaluation, gearbox damage modeling and fault diagnosis techniques, gearbox transmission path modeling and method validation. In the end, a summary and some research prospects are presented.

  9. Dynamic neutron scattering from conformational dynamics. II. Application using molecular dynamics simulation and Markov modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yi, Zheng; Lindner, Benjamin; Prinz, Jan-Hendrik; Noé, Frank; Smith, Jeremy C

    2013-11-07

    Neutron scattering experiments directly probe the dynamics of complex molecules on the sub pico- to microsecond time scales. However, the assignment of the relaxations seen experimentally to specific structural rearrangements is difficult, since many of the underlying dynamical processes may exist on similar timescales. In an accompanying article, we present a theoretical approach to the analysis of molecular dynamics simulations with a Markov State Model (MSM) that permits the direct identification of structural transitions leading to each contributing relaxation process. Here, we demonstrate the use of the method by applying it to the configurational dynamics of the well-characterized alanine dipeptide. A practical procedure for deriving the MSM from an MD is introduced. The result is a 9-state MSM in the space of the backbone dihedral angles and the side-chain methyl group. The agreement between the quasielastic spectrum calculated directly from the atomic trajectories and that derived from the Markov state model is excellent. The dependence on the wavevector of the individual Markov processes is described. The procedure means that it is now practicable to interpret quasielastic scattering spectra in terms of well-defined intramolecular transitions with minimal a priori assumptions as to the nature of the dynamics taking place.

  10. Dynamics of a delayed intraguild predation model with harvesting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collera, Juancho A.; Balilo, Aldrin T.

    2018-03-01

    In [1], a delayed three-species intraguild predation (IGP) model was considered. This particular tri-trophic community module includes a predator and its prey which share a common basal resource for their sustenance [3]. Here, it is assumed that in the absence of predation, the growth of the basal resource follows the delayed logistic equation. Without delay time, the IGP model in [1] reduces to the system considered in [7] where it was shown that IGP may induce chaos even if the functional responses are linear. Meanwhile, in [2] the delayed IGP model in [1] was generalized to include harvesting. Under the assumption that the basal resource has some economic value, a constant harvesting term on the basal resource was incorporated. However, both models in [1] and [2] use the delay time as the main parameter. In this research, we studied the delayed IGP model in [1] with the addition of linear harvesting term on each of the three species. The dynamical behavior of this system is examined using the harvesting rates as main parameter. In particular, we give conditions on the existence, stability, and bifurcations of equilibrium solutions of this system. This allows us to better understand the effects of harvesting in terms of the survival or extinction of one or more species in our system. Numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate our results. In fact, we show that the chaotic behavior in [7] unfolds when the harvesting rate parameter is varied.

  11. A simple dynamic energy capacity model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gander, James P.

    2012-01-01

    I develop a simple dynamic model showing how total energy capacity is allocated to two different uses and how these uses and their corresponding energy flows are related and behave through time. The control variable of the model determines the allocation. All the variables of the model are in terms of a composite energy equivalent measured in BTU's. A key focus is on the shadow price of energy capacity and its behavior through time. Another key focus is on the behavior of the control variable that determines the allocation of overall energy capacity. The matching or linking of the model's variables to real world U.S. energy data is undertaken. In spite of some limitations of the data, the model and its behavior fit the data fairly well. Some energy policy implications are discussed. - Highlights: ► The model shows how energy capacity is allocated to current output production versus added energy capacity production. ► Two variables in the allocation are the shadow price of capacity and the control variable that determines the allocation. ► The model was linked to U.S. historical energy data and fit the data quite well. ► In particular, the policy control variable was cyclical and consistent with the model. ► Policy implications relevant to the allocation of energy capacity are discussed briefly.

  12. Dynamic modelling of Industrial Heavy Water Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Teruel, F.E.

    1997-01-01

    The dynamic behavior of the isotopic enrichment unites of the Industrial Heavy Water Plant, located in Arroyito, Neuquen, Argentina, was modeled and simulated in the present work. Dynamic models of the chemical and isotopic interchange processes existent in the plant, were developed. This served as a base to obtain representative models of the different unit and control systems. The developed models were represented in a modular code for each unit. Each simulator consists of approximately one hundred non-linear-first-order differential equations and some other algebraic equation, which are time resolved by the code. The different simulators allow to change a big number of boundary conditions and the control systems set point for each simulation, so that the program become very versatile. The output of the code allows to see the evolution through time of the variables of interest. An interface which facilitates the use of the first enrichment stage simulator was developed. This interface allows an easy access to generate wished events during the simulation and includes the possibility to plot evolution of the variables involved. The obtained results agree with the expected tendencies. The calculated nominal steady state matches by the manufacturer. The different steady states obtained, agree with previous works. The times and tendencies involved in the transients generated by the program, are in good agreement with the experience obtained at the plant. Based in the obtained results, it is concluded that the characteristic times of the plant are determined by the masses involved in the process. Different characteristics in the system dynamic behavior were generated with the different simulators, and were validated by plant personnel. This work allowed to understand the different process involved in the heavy water manufacture, and to develop a very useful tool for the personnel of the plant. (author). 14 refs., figs., tabs. plant. (author). 14 refs., figs., tabs

  13. Modeling dynamic functional connectivity using a wishart mixture model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Søren Føns Vind; Madsen, Kristoffer Hougaard; Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard

    2017-01-01

    framework provides model selection by quantifying models generalization to new data. We use this to quantify the number of states within a prespecified window length. We further propose a heuristic procedure for choosing the window length based on contrasting for each window length the predictive...... together whereas short windows are more unstable and influenced by noise and we find that our heuristic correctly identifies an adequate level of complexity. On single subject resting state fMRI data we find that dynamic models generally outperform static models and using the proposed heuristic points...

  14. Incorporating classic adsorption isotherms into modern surface complexation models: implications for sorption of radionuclides

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kulik, D.A.

    2005-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: Computer-aided surface complexation models (SCM) tend to replace the classic adsorption isotherm (AI) analysis in describing mineral-water interface reactions such as radionuclide sorption onto (hydr) oxides and clays. Any site-binding SCM based on the mole balance of surface sites, in fact, reproduces the (competitive) Langmuir isotherm, optionally amended with electrostatic Coulomb's non-ideal term. In most SCM implementations, it is difficult to incorporate real-surface phenomena (site heterogeneity, lateral interactions, surface condensation) described in classic AI approaches other than Langmuir's. Thermodynamic relations between SCMs and AIs that remained obscure in the past have been recently clarified using new definitions of standard and reference states of surface species [1,2]. On this basis, a method for separating the Langmuir AI into ideal (linear) and non-ideal parts [2] was applied to multi-dentate Langmuir, Frumkin, and BET isotherms. The aim of this work was to obtain the surface activity coefficient terms that make the SCM site mole balance constraints obsolete and, in this way, extend thermodynamic SCMs to cover sorption phenomena described by the respective AIs. The multi-dentate Langmuir term accounts for the site saturation with n-dentate surface species, as illustrated on modeling bi-dentate U VI complexes on goethite or SiO 2 surfaces. The Frumkin term corrects for the lateral interactions of the mono-dentate surface species; in particular, it has the same form as the Coulombic term of the constant-capacitance EDL combined with the Langmuir term. The BET term (three parameters) accounts for more than a monolayer adsorption up to the surface condensation; it can potentially describe the surface precipitation of nickel and other cations on hydroxides and clay minerals. All three non-ideal terms (in GEM SCMs implementation [1,2]) by now are used for non-competing surface species only. Upon 'surface dilution

  15. Adaptive-network models of collective dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zschaler, G.

    2012-09-01

    Complex systems can often be modelled as networks, in which their basic units are represented by abstract nodes and the interactions among them by abstract links. This network of interactions is the key to understanding emergent collective phenomena in such systems. In most cases, it is an adaptive network, which is defined by a feedback loop between the local dynamics of the individual units and the dynamical changes of the network structure itself. This feedback loop gives rise to many novel phenomena. Adaptive networks are a promising concept for the investigation of collective phenomena in different systems. However, they also present a challenge to existing modelling approaches and analytical descriptions due to the tight coupling between local and topological degrees of freedom. In this work, which is essentially my PhD thesis, I present a simple rule-based framework for the investigation of adaptive networks, using which a wide range of collective phenomena can be modelled and analysed from a common perspective. In this framework, a microscopic model is defined by the local interaction rules of small network motifs, which can be implemented in stochastic simulations straightforwardly. Moreover, an approximate emergent-level description in terms of macroscopic variables can be derived from the microscopic rules, which we use to analyse the system's collective and long-term behaviour by applying tools from dynamical systems theory. We discuss three adaptive-network models for different collective phenomena within our common framework. First, we propose a novel approach to collective motion in insect swarms, in which we consider the insects' adaptive interaction network instead of explicitly tracking their positions and velocities. We capture the experimentally observed onset of collective motion qualitatively in terms of a bifurcation in this non-spatial model. We find that three-body interactions are an essential ingredient for collective motion to emerge

  16. Modelling forest dynamics along climate gradients in Bolivia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Seiler, C.; Hutjes, R.W.A.; Kruijt, B.; Quispe, J.; Añez, S.; Arora, V.K.; Melton, J.R.; Hickler, T.; Kabat, P.

    2014-01-01

    Dynamic vegetation models have been used to assess the resilience of tropical forests to climate change, but the global application of these modeling experiments often misrepresents carbon dynamics at a regional level, limiting the validity of future projections. Here a dynamic vegetation model

  17. Modelling Market Dynamics with a "Market Game"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katahira, Kei; Chen, Yu

    In the financial market, traders, especially speculators, typically behave as to yield capital gains by the difference between selling and buying prices. Making use of the structure of Minority Game, we build a novel market toy model which takes account of such the speculative mind involving a round-trip trade to analyze the market dynamics as a system. Even though the micro-level behavioral rules of players in this new model is quite simple, its macroscopic aggregational output has the reproducibility of the well-known stylized facts such as volatility clustering and heavy tails. The proposed model may become a new alternative bottom-up approach in order to study the emerging mechanism of those stylized qualitative properties of asset returns.

  18. Dynamics of a Stochastic Intraguild Predation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zejing Xing

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Intraguild predation (IGP is a widespread ecological phenomenon which occurs when one predator species attacks another predator species with which it competes for a shared prey species. The objective of this paper is to study the dynamical properties of a stochastic intraguild predation model. We analyze stochastic persistence and extinction of the stochastic IGP model containing five cases and establish the sufficient criteria for global asymptotic stability of the positive solutions. This study shows that it is possible for the coexistence of three species under the influence of environmental noise, and that the noise may have a positive effect for IGP species. A stationary distribution of the stochastic IGP model is established and it has the ergodic property, suggesting that the time average of population size with the development of time is equal to the stationary distribution in space. Finally, we show that our results may be extended to two well-known biological systems: food chains and exploitative competition.

  19. Agent-based modeling and network dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Namatame, Akira

    2016-01-01

    The book integrates agent-based modeling and network science. It is divided into three parts, namely, foundations, primary dynamics on and of social networks, and applications. The book begins with the network origin of agent-based models, known as cellular automata, and introduce a number of classic models, such as Schelling’s segregation model and Axelrod’s spatial game. The essence of the foundation part is the network-based agent-based models in which agents follow network-based decision rules. Under the influence of the substantial progress in network science in late 1990s, these models have been extended from using lattices into using small-world networks, scale-free networks, etc. The book also shows that the modern network science mainly driven by game-theorists and sociophysicists has inspired agent-based social scientists to develop alternative formation algorithms, known as agent-based social networks. The book reviews a number of pioneering and representative models in this family. Upon the gi...

  20. Flight Dynamic Model Exchange using XML

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, E. Bruce; Hildreth, Bruce L.

    2002-01-01

    The AIAA Modeling and Simulation Technical Committee has worked for several years to develop a standard by which the information needed to develop physics-based models of aircraft can be specified. The purpose of this standard is to provide a well-defined set of information, definitions, data tables and axis systems so that cooperating organizations can transfer a model from one simulation facility to another with maximum efficiency. This paper proposes using an application of the eXtensible Markup Language (XML) to implement the AIAA simulation standard. The motivation and justification for using a standard such as XML is discussed. Necessary data elements to be supported are outlined. An example of an aerodynamic model as an XML file is given. This example includes definition of independent and dependent variables for function tables, definition of key variables used to define the model, and axis systems used. The final steps necessary for implementation of the standard are presented. Software to take an XML-defined model and import/export it to/from a given simulation facility is discussed, but not demonstrated. That would be the next step in final implementation of standards for physics-based aircraft dynamic models.

  1. Traffic flow dynamics. Data, models and simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Treiber, Martin [Technische Univ. Dresden (Germany). Inst. fuer Wirtschaft und Verkehr; Kesting, Arne [TomTom Development Germany GmbH, Berlin (Germany)

    2013-07-01

    First comprehensive textbook of this fascinating interdisciplinary topic which explains advances in a way that it is easily accessible to engineering, physics and math students. Presents practical applications of traffic theory such as driving behavior, stability analysis, stop-and-go waves, and travel time estimation. Presents the topic in a novel and systematic way by addressing both microscopic and macroscopic models with a focus on traffic instabilities. Revised and extended edition of the German textbook ''Verkehrsdynamik und -simulation''. This textbook provides a comprehensive and instructive coverage of vehicular traffic flow dynamics and modeling. It makes this fascinating interdisciplinary topic, which to date was only documented in parts by specialized monographs, accessible to a broad readership. Numerous figures and problems with solutions help the reader to quickly understand and practice the presented concepts. This book is targeted at students of physics and traffic engineering and, more generally, also at students and professionals in computer science, mathematics, and interdisciplinary topics. It also offers material for project work in programming and simulation at college and university level. The main part, after presenting different categories of traffic data, is devoted to a mathematical description of the dynamics of traffic flow, covering macroscopic models which describe traffic in terms of density, as well as microscopic many-particle models in which each particle corresponds to a vehicle and its driver. Focus chapters on traffic instabilities and model calibration/validation present these topics in a novel and systematic way. Finally, the theoretical framework is shown at work in selected applications such as traffic-state and travel-time estimation, intelligent transportation systems, traffic operations management, and a detailed physics-based model for fuel consumption and emissions.

  2. Mineral vein dynamics modelling (FRACS II)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Urai, J.; Virgo, S.; Arndt, M.

    2016-08-01

    The Mineral Vein Dynamics Modeling group ''FRACS'' started out as a team of 7 research groups in its first phase and continued with a team of 5 research groups at the Universities of Aachen, Tuebingen, Karlsruhe, Mainz and Glasgow during its second phase ''FRACS 11''. The aim of the group was to develop an advanced understanding of the interplay between fracturing, fluid flow and fracture healing with a special emphasis on the comparison of field data and numerical models. Field areas comprised the Oman mountains in Oman (which where already studied in detail in the first phase), a siliciclastic sequence in the Internal Ligurian Units in Italy (closed to Sestri Levante) and cores of Zechstein carbonates from a Lean Gas reservoir in Northern Germany. Numerical models of fracturing, sealing and interaction with fluid that were developed in phase I where expanded in phase 11. They were used to model small scale fracture healing by crystal growth and the resulting influence on flow, medium scale fracture healing and its influence on successive fracturing and healing, as well as large scale dynamic fluid flow through opening and closing fractures and channels as a function of fluid overpressure. The numerical models were compared with structures in the field and we were able to identify first proxies for mechanical vein-hostrock properties and fluid overpressures versus tectonic stresses. Finally we propose a new classification of stylolites based on numerical models and observations in the Zechstein cores and continued to develop a new stress inversion tool to use stylolites to estimate depth of their formation.

  3. Mineral vein dynamics modelling (FRACS II)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Urai, J.; Virgo, S.; Arndt, M. [RWTH Aachen (Germany); and others

    2016-08-15

    The Mineral Vein Dynamics Modeling group ''FRACS'' started out as a team of 7 research groups in its first phase and continued with a team of 5 research groups at the Universities of Aachen, Tuebingen, Karlsruhe, Mainz and Glasgow during its second phase ''FRACS 11''. The aim of the group was to develop an advanced understanding of the interplay between fracturing, fluid flow and fracture healing with a special emphasis on the comparison of field data and numerical models. Field areas comprised the Oman mountains in Oman (which where already studied in detail in the first phase), a siliciclastic sequence in the Internal Ligurian Units in Italy (closed to Sestri Levante) and cores of Zechstein carbonates from a Lean Gas reservoir in Northern Germany. Numerical models of fracturing, sealing and interaction with fluid that were developed in phase I where expanded in phase 11. They were used to model small scale fracture healing by crystal growth and the resulting influence on flow, medium scale fracture healing and its influence on successive fracturing and healing, as well as large scale dynamic fluid flow through opening and closing fractures and channels as a function of fluid overpressure. The numerical models were compared with structures in the field and we were able to identify first proxies for mechanical vein-hostrock properties and fluid overpressures versus tectonic stresses. Finally we propose a new classification of stylolites based on numerical models and observations in the Zechstein cores and continued to develop a new stress inversion tool to use stylolites to estimate depth of their formation.

  4. Mechanical Model of Geometric Cell and Topological Algorithm for Cell Dynamics from Single-Cell to Formation of Monolayered Tissues with Pattern

    KAUST Repository

    Kachalo, Së ma; Naveed, Hammad; Cao, Youfang; Zhao, Jieling; Liang, Jie

    2015-01-01

    development, and other emerging behavior. Here we describe a cell model and an efficient geometric algorithm for studying the dynamic process of tissue formation in 2D (e.g. epithelial tissues). Our approach improves upon previous methods by incorporating

  5. MODELS AND THE DYNAMICS OF THEORIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulo Abrantes

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: This paper gives a historical overview of the ways various trends in the philosophy of science dealt with models and their relationship with the topics of heuristics and theoretical dynamics. First of all, N. Campbell’s account of analogies as components of scientific theories is presented. Next, the notion of ‘model’ in the reconstruction of the structure of scientific theories proposed by logical empiricists is examined. This overview finishes with M. Hesse’s attempts to develop Campbell’s early ideas in terms of an analogical inference. The final part of the paper points to contemporary developments on these issues which adopt a cognitivist perspective. It is indicated how discussions in the cognitive sciences might help to flesh out some of the insights philosophers of science had concerning the role models and analogies play in actual scientific theorizing. Key words: models, analogical reasoning, metaphors in science, the structure of scientific theories, theoretical dynamics, heuristics, scientific discovery.

  6. Mathematical modeling of infectious disease dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siettos, Constantinos I.; Russo, Lucia

    2013-01-01

    Over the last years, an intensive worldwide effort is speeding up the developments in the establishment of a global surveillance network for combating pandemics of emergent and re-emergent infectious diseases. Scientists from different fields extending from medicine and molecular biology to computer science and applied mathematics have teamed up for rapid assessment of potentially urgent situations. Toward this aim mathematical modeling plays an important role in efforts that focus on predicting, assessing, and controlling potential outbreaks. To better understand and model the contagious dynamics the impact of numerous variables ranging from the micro host–pathogen level to host-to-host interactions, as well as prevailing ecological, social, economic, and demographic factors across the globe have to be analyzed and thoroughly studied. Here, we present and discuss the main approaches that are used for the surveillance and modeling of infectious disease dynamics. We present the basic concepts underpinning their implementation and practice and for each category we give an annotated list of representative works. PMID:23552814

  7. Numerical modeling of bubble dynamics in magmas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huber, Christian; Su, Yanqing; Parmigiani, Andrea

    2014-05-01

    Understanding the complex non-linear physics that governs volcanic eruptions is contingent on our ability to characterize the dynamics of bubbles and its effect on the ascending magma. The exsolution and migration of bubbles has also a great impact on the heat and mass transport in and out of magma bodies stored at shallow depths in the crust. Multiphase systems like magmas are by definition heterogeneous at small scales. Although mixture theory or homogenization methods are convenient to represent multiphase systems as a homogeneous equivalent media, these approaches do not inform us on possible feedbacks at the pore-scale and can be significantly misleading. In this presentation, we discuss the development and application of bubble-scale multiphase flow modeling to address the following questions : How do bubbles impact heat and mass transport in magma chambers ? How efficient are chemical exchanges between the melt and bubbles during magma decompression? What is the role of hydrodynamic interactions on the deformation of bubbles while the magma is sheared? Addressing these questions requires powerful numerical methods that accurately model the balance between viscous, capillary and pressure stresses. We discuss how these bubble-scale models can provide important constraints on the dynamics of magmas stored at shallow depth or ascending to the surface during an eruption.

  8. Models for inference in dynamic metacommunity systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorazio, Robert M.; Kery, Marc; Royle, J. Andrew; Plattner, Matthias

    2010-01-01

    A variety of processes are thought to be involved in the formation and dynamics of species assemblages. For example, various metacommunity theories are based on differences in the relative contributions of dispersal of species among local communities and interactions of species within local communities. Interestingly, metacommunity theories continue to be advanced without much empirical validation. Part of the problem is that statistical models used to analyze typical survey data either fail to specify ecological processes with sufficient complexity or they fail to account for errors in detection of species during sampling. In this paper, we describe a statistical modeling framework for the analysis of metacommunity dynamics that is based on the idea of adopting a unified approach, multispecies occupancy modeling, for computing inferences about individual species, local communities of species, or the entire metacommunity of species. This approach accounts for errors in detection of species during sampling and also allows different metacommunity paradigms to be specified in terms of species- and location-specific probabilities of occurrence, extinction, and colonization: all of which are estimable. In addition, this approach can be used to address inference problems that arise in conservation ecology, such as predicting temporal and spatial changes in biodiversity for use in making conservation decisions. To illustrate, we estimate changes in species composition associated with the species-specific phenologies of flight patterns of butterflies in Switzerland for the purpose of estimating regional differences in biodiversity.

  9. Dynamical Vertex Approximation for the Hubbard Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toschi, Alessandro

    A full understanding of correlated electron systems in the physically relevant situations of three and two dimensions represents a challenge for the contemporary condensed matter theory. However, in the last years considerable progress has been achieved by means of increasingly more powerful quantum many-body algorithms, applied to the basic model for correlated electrons, the Hubbard Hamiltonian. Here, I will review the physics emerging from studies performed with the dynamical vertex approximation, which includes diagrammatic corrections to the local description of the dynamical mean field theory (DMFT). In particular, I will first discuss the phase diagram in three dimensions with a special focus on the commensurate and incommensurate magnetic phases, their (quantum) critical properties, and the impact of fluctuations on electronic lifetimes and spectral functions. In two dimensions, the effects of non-local fluctuations beyond DMFT grow enormously, determining the appearance of a low-temperature insulating behavior for all values of the interaction in the unfrustrated model: Here the prototypical features of the Mott-Hubbard metal-insulator transition, as well as the existence of magnetically ordered phases, are completely overwhelmed by antiferromagnetic fluctuations of exponentially large extension, in accordance with the Mermin-Wagner theorem. Eventually, by a fluctuation diagnostics analysis of cluster DMFT self-energies, the same magnetic fluctuations are identified as responsible for the pseudogap regime in the holed-doped frustrated case, with important implications for the theoretical modeling of the cuprate physics.

  10. A dynamic model of the wormhole and the Multiverse model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shatskii, A A; Kardashev, N S; Novikov, I D

    2008-01-01

    An analytic solution methodology for general relativity (GR) equations describing the hypothetical phenomenon of wormholes is presented and the analysis of wormholes in terms of their physical properties is discussed. An analytic solution of the GR equations for static and dynamic spherically symmetric wormholes is given. The dynamic solution generally describes a 'traversable' wormhole, i.e., one allowing matter, energy, and information to pass through it. It is shown how the energy-momentum tensor of matter in a wormhole can be represented in a form allowing the GR equations to be solved analytically, which has a crucial methodological importance for analyzing the properties of the solution obtained. The energy-momentum tensor of wormhole matter is represented as a superposition of a spherically symmetric magnetic (or electric) field and negative-density dust matter, serving as exotic matter necessary for a 'traversable' wormhole to exist. The dynamics of the model are investigated. A similar model is considered (and analyzed in terms of inflation) for the Einstein equations with a Λ term. Superposing enough dust matter, a magnetic field, and a Λ term can produce a static solution, which turns out to be a spherical Multiverse model with an infinite number of wormhole-connected spherical universes. This Multiverse can have its total energy positive everywhere in space, and in addition can be out of equilibrium (i.e., dynamic). (methodological notes)

  11. A dynamic model of the wormhole and the Multiverse model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shatskii, A A; Kardashev, N S [Astro-Space Centre of the P. N. Lebedev Physics Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Russian Federation); Novikov, I D [Russian Research Centre ' Kurchatov Institute' , Moscow (Russian Federation)

    2008-05-31

    An analytic solution methodology for general relativity (GR) equations describing the hypothetical phenomenon of wormholes is presented and the analysis of wormholes in terms of their physical properties is discussed. An analytic solution of the GR equations for static and dynamic spherically symmetric wormholes is given. The dynamic solution generally describes a 'traversable' wormhole, i.e., one allowing matter, energy, and information to pass through it. It is shown how the energy-momentum tensor of matter in a wormhole can be represented in a form allowing the GR equations to be solved analytically, which has a crucial methodological importance for analyzing the properties of the solution obtained. The energy-momentum tensor of wormhole matter is represented as a superposition of a spherically symmetric magnetic (or electric) field and negative-density dust matter, serving as exotic matter necessary for a 'traversable' wormhole to exist. The dynamics of the model are investigated. A similar model is considered (and analyzed in terms of inflation) for the Einstein equations with a {lambda} term. Superposing enough dust matter, a magnetic field, and a {lambda} term can produce a static solution, which turns out to be a spherical Multiverse model with an infinite number of wormhole-connected spherical universes. This Multiverse can have its total energy positive everywhere in space, and in addition can be out of equilibrium (i.e., dynamic). (methodological notes)

  12. Trophic dynamics of a simple model ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Graham; Fortier-Dubois, Étienne

    2017-09-13

    We have constructed a model of community dynamics that is simple enough to enumerate all possible food webs, yet complex enough to represent a wide range of ecological processes. We use the transition matrix to predict the outcome of succession and then investigate how the transition probabilities are governed by resource supply and immigration. Low-input regimes lead to simple communities whereas trophically complex communities develop when there is an adequate supply of both resources and immigrants. Our interpretation of trophic dynamics in complex communities hinges on a new principle of mutual replenishment, defined as the reciprocal alternation of state in a pair of communities linked by the invasion and extinction of a shared species. Such neutral couples are the outcome of succession under local dispersal and imply that food webs will often be made up of suites of trophically equivalent species. When immigrants arrive from an external pool of fixed composition a similar principle predicts a dynamic core of webs constituting a neutral interchange network, although communities may express an extensive range of other webs whose membership is only in part predictable. The food web is not in general predictable from whole-community properties such as productivity or stability, although it may profoundly influence these properties. © 2017 The Author(s).

  13. Dynamic information architecture system (DIAS) : multiple model simulation management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simunich, K. L.; Sydelko, P.; Dolph, J.; Christiansen, J.

    2002-01-01

    Dynamic Information Architecture System (DIAS) is a flexible, extensible, object-based framework for developing and maintaining complex multidisciplinary simulations of a wide variety of application contexts. The modeling domain of a specific DIAS-based simulation is determined by (1) software Entity (domain-specific) objects that represent the real-world entities that comprise the problem space (atmosphere, watershed, human), and (2) simulation models and other data processing applications that express the dynamic behaviors of the domain entities. In DIAS, models communicate only with Entity objects, never with each other. Each Entity object has a number of Parameter and Aspect (of behavior) objects associated with it. The Parameter objects contain the state properties of the Entity object. The Aspect objects represent the behaviors of the Entity object and how it interacts with other objects. DIAS extends the ''Object'' paradigm by abstraction of the object's dynamic behaviors, separating the ''WHAT'' from the ''HOW.'' DIAS object class definitions contain an abstract description of the various aspects of the object's behavior (the WHAT), but no implementation details (the HOW). Separate DIAS models/applications carry the implementation of object behaviors (the HOW). Any model deemed appropriate, including existing legacy-type models written in other languages, can drive entity object behavior. The DIAS design promotes plug-and-play of alternative models, with minimal recoding of existing applications. The DIAS Context Builder object builds a constructs or scenario for the simulation, based on developer specification and user inputs. Because DIAS is a discrete event simulation system, there is a Simulation Manager object with which all events are processed. Any class that registers to receive events must implement an event handler (method) to process the event during execution. Event handlers can schedule other events; create or remove Entities from the

  14. Dynamic information architecture system (DIAS) : multiple model simulation management.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Simunich, K. L.; Sydelko, P.; Dolph, J.; Christiansen, J.

    2002-05-13

    Dynamic Information Architecture System (DIAS) is a flexible, extensible, object-based framework for developing and maintaining complex multidisciplinary simulations of a wide variety of application contexts. The modeling domain of a specific DIAS-based simulation is determined by (1) software Entity (domain-specific) objects that represent the real-world entities that comprise the problem space (atmosphere, watershed, human), and (2) simulation models and other data processing applications that express the dynamic behaviors of the domain entities. In DIAS, models communicate only with Entity objects, never with each other. Each Entity object has a number of Parameter and Aspect (of behavior) objects associated with it. The Parameter objects contain the state properties of the Entity object. The Aspect objects represent the behaviors of the Entity object and how it interacts with other objects. DIAS extends the ''Object'' paradigm by abstraction of the object's dynamic behaviors, separating the ''WHAT'' from the ''HOW.'' DIAS object class definitions contain an abstract description of the various aspects of the object's behavior (the WHAT), but no implementation details (the HOW). Separate DIAS models/applications carry the implementation of object behaviors (the HOW). Any model deemed appropriate, including existing legacy-type models written in other languages, can drive entity object behavior. The DIAS design promotes plug-and-play of alternative models, with minimal recoding of existing applications. The DIAS Context Builder object builds a constructs or scenario for the simulation, based on developer specification and user inputs. Because DIAS is a discrete event simulation system, there is a Simulation Manager object with which all events are processed. Any class that registers to receive events must implement an event handler (method) to process the event during execution. Event handlers

  15. A Mathematical Model of Cardiovascular Response to Dynamic Exercise

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Magosso, E

    2001-01-01

    A mathematical model of cardiovascular response to dynamic exercise is presented, The model includes the pulsating heart, the systemic and pulmonary, circulation, a functional description of muscle...

  16. Stability of a general delayed virus dynamics model with humoral immunity and cellular infection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elaiw, A. M.; Raezah, A. A.; Alofi, A. S.

    2017-06-01

    In this paper, we investigate the dynamical behavior of a general nonlinear model for virus dynamics with virus-target and infected-target incidences. The model incorporates humoral immune response and distributed time delays. The model is a four dimensional system of delay differential equations where the production and removal rates of the virus and cells are given by general nonlinear functions. We derive the basic reproduction parameter R˜0 G and the humoral immune response activation number R˜1 G and establish a set of conditions on the general functions which are sufficient to determine the global dynamics of the models. We use suitable Lyapunov functionals and apply LaSalle's invariance principle to prove the global asymptotic stability of the all equilibria of the model. We confirm the theoretical results by numerical simulations.

  17. Multiscale model for pedestrian and infection dynamics during air travel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Namilae, Sirish; Derjany, Pierrot; Mubayi, Anuj; Scotch, Mathew; Srinivasan, Ashok

    2017-05-01

    In this paper we develop a multiscale model combining social-force-based pedestrian movement with a population level stochastic infection transmission dynamics framework. The model is then applied to study the infection transmission within airplanes and the transmission of the Ebola virus through casual contacts. Drastic limitations on air-travel during epidemics, such as during the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa, carry considerable economic and human costs. We use the computational model to evaluate the effects of passenger movement within airplanes and air-travel policies on the geospatial spread of infectious diseases. We find that boarding policy by an airline is more critical for infection propagation compared to deplaning policy. Enplaning in two sections resulted in fewer infections than the currently followed strategy with multiple zones. In addition, we found that small commercial airplanes are better than larger ones at reducing the number of new infections in a flight. Aggregated results indicate that passenger movement strategies and airplane size predicted through these network models can have significant impact on an event like the 2014 Ebola epidemic. The methodology developed here is generic and can be readily modified to incorporate the impact from the outbreak of other directly transmitted infectious diseases.

  18. Modelling and control of dynamic systems using gaussian process models

    CERN Document Server

    Kocijan, Juš

    2016-01-01

    This monograph opens up new horizons for engineers and researchers in academia and in industry dealing with or interested in new developments in the field of system identification and control. It emphasizes guidelines for working solutions and practical advice for their implementation rather than the theoretical background of Gaussian process (GP) models. The book demonstrates the potential of this recent development in probabilistic machine-learning methods and gives the reader an intuitive understanding of the topic. The current state of the art is treated along with possible future directions for research. Systems control design relies on mathematical models and these may be developed from measurement data. This process of system identification, when based on GP models, can play an integral part of control design in data-based control and its description as such is an essential aspect of the text. The background of GP regression is introduced first with system identification and incorporation of prior know...

  19. Testing substellar models with dynamical mass measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liu M.C.

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available We have been using Keck laser guide star adaptive optics to monitor the orbits of ultracool binaries, providing dynamical masses at lower luminosities and temperatures than previously available and enabling strong tests of theoretical models. We have identified three specific problems with theory: (1 We find that model color–magnitude diagrams cannot be reliably used to infer masses as they do not accurately reproduce the colors of ultracool dwarfs of known mass. (2 Effective temperatures inferred from evolutionary model radii are typically inconsistent with temperatures derived from fitting atmospheric models to observed spectra by 100–300 K. (3 For the only known pair of field brown dwarfs with a precise mass (3% and age determination (≈25%, the measured luminosities are ~2–3× higher than predicted by model cooling rates (i.e., masses inferred from Lbol and age are 20–30% larger than measured. To make progress in understanding the observed discrepancies, more mass measurements spanning a wide range of luminosity, temperature, and age are needed, along with more accurate age determinations (e.g., via asteroseismology for primary stars with brown dwarf binary companions. Also, resolved optical and infrared spectroscopy are needed to measure lithium depletion and to characterize the atmospheres of binary components in order to better assess model deficiencies.

  20. Computational social dynamic modeling of group recruitment.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berry, Nina M.; Lee, Marinna; Pickett, Marc; Turnley, Jessica Glicken (Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM); Smrcka, Julianne D. (Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM); Ko, Teresa H.; Moy, Timothy David (Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM); Wu, Benjamin C.

    2004-01-01

    The Seldon software toolkit combines concepts from agent-based modeling and social science to create a computationally social dynamic model for group recruitment. The underlying recruitment model is based on a unique three-level hybrid agent-based architecture that contains simple agents (level one), abstract agents (level two), and cognitive agents (level three). This uniqueness of this architecture begins with abstract agents that permit the model to include social concepts (gang) or institutional concepts (school) into a typical software simulation environment. The future addition of cognitive agents to the recruitment model will provide a unique entity that does not exist in any agent-based modeling toolkits to date. We use social networks to provide an integrated mesh within and between the different levels. This Java based toolkit is used to analyze different social concepts based on initialization input from the user. The input alters a set of parameters used to influence the values associated with the simple agents, abstract agents, and the interactions (simple agent-simple agent or simple agent-abstract agent) between these entities. The results of phase-1 Seldon toolkit provide insight into how certain social concepts apply to different scenario development for inner city gang recruitment.

  1. AFDM: An advanced fluid-dynamics model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henneges, G.; Kleinheins, S.

    1994-01-01

    This volume of the Advanced Fluid-Dynamics Model (AFDM) documents the modeling of the equation of state (EOS) in the code. The authors present an overview of the basic concepts underlying the thermodynamics modeling and resulting EOS, which is a set of relations between the thermodynamic properties of materials. The AFDM code allows for multiphase-multimaterial systems, which they explore in three phase models: two-material solid, two-material liquid, and three-material vapor. They describe and compare two ways of specifying the EOS of materials: (1) as simplified analytic expressions, or (2) as tables that precisely describe the properties of materials and their interactions for mechanical equilibrium. Either of the two EOS models implemented in AFDM can be selected by specifying the option when preprocessing the source code for compilation. Last, the authors determine thermophysical properties such as surface tension, thermal conductivities, and viscosities in the model for the intracell exchanges of AFDM. Specific notations, routines, EOS data, plots, test results, and corrections to the code are available in the appendices

  2. Dynamic models for distributed generation resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morched, A.S. [BPR Energie, Sherbrooke, PQ (Canada)

    2010-07-01

    Distributed resources can impact the performance of host power systems during both normal and abnormal system conditions. This PowerPoint presentation discussed the use of dynamic models for identifying potential interaction problems between interconnected systems. The models were designed to simulate steady state behaviour as well as transient responses to system disturbances. The distributed generators included directly coupled and electronically coupled generators. The directly coupled generator was driven by wind turbines. Simplified models of grid-side inverters, electronically coupled wind generators and doubly-fed induction generators (DFIGs) were presented. The responses of DFIGs to wind variations were evaluated. Synchronous machine and electronically coupled generator responses were compared. The system model components included load models, generators, protection systems, and system equivalents. Frequency responses to islanding events were reviewed. The study demonstrated that accurate simulations are needed to predict the impact of distributed generation resources on the performance of host systems. Advances in distributed generation technology have outpaced the development of models needed for integration studies. tabs., figs.

  3. AFDM: An Advanced Fluid-Dynamics Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilhelm, D.

    1990-09-01

    This volume describes the Advanced Fluid-Dynamics Model (AFDM) for topologies, flow regimes, and interfacial areas. The objective of these models is to provide values for the interfacial areas between all components existing in a computational cell. The interfacial areas are then used to evaluate the mass, energy, and momentum transfer between the components. A new approach has been undertaken in the development of a model to convect the interfacial areas of the discontinuous velocity fields in the three-velocity-field environment of AFDM. These interfacial areas are called convectible surface areas. The continuous and discontinuous components are chosen using volume fraction and levitation criteria. This establishes so-called topologies for which the convectible surface areas can be determined. These areas are functions of space and time. Solid particulates that are limited to being discontinuous within the bulk fluid are assumed to have a constant size. The convectible surface areas are subdivided to model contacts between two discontinuous components or discontinuous components and the structure. The models have been written for the flow inside of large pools. Therefore, the structure is tracked only as a boundary to the fluid volume without having a direct influence on velocity or volume fraction distribution by means of flow regimes or boundary layer models. 17 refs., 7 tabs., 18 figs

  4. Graphical models for inferring single molecule dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gonzalez Ruben L

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The recent explosion of experimental techniques in single molecule biophysics has generated a variety of novel time series data requiring equally novel computational tools for analysis and inference. This article describes in general terms how graphical modeling may be used to learn from biophysical time series data using the variational Bayesian expectation maximization algorithm (VBEM. The discussion is illustrated by the example of single-molecule fluorescence resonance energy transfer (smFRET versus time data, where the smFRET time series is modeled as a hidden Markov model (HMM with Gaussian observables. A detailed description of smFRET is provided as well. Results The VBEM algorithm returns the model’s evidence and an approximating posterior parameter distribution given the data. The former provides a metric for model selection via maximum evidence (ME, and the latter a description of the model’s parameters learned from the data. ME/VBEM provide several advantages over the more commonly used approach of maximum likelihood (ML optimized by the expectation maximization (EM algorithm, the most important being a natural form of model selection and a well-posed (non-divergent optimization problem. Conclusions The results demonstrate the utility of graphical modeling for inference of dynamic processes in single molecule biophysics.

  5. Dynamics of an HBV/HCV infection model with intracellular delay and cell proliferation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Fengqin; Li, Jianquan; Zheng, Chongwu; Wang, Lin

    2017-01-01

    A new mathematical model of hepatitis B/C virus (HBV/HCV) infection which incorporates the proliferation of healthy hepatocyte cells and the latent period of infected hepatocyte cells is proposed and studied. The dynamics is analyzed via Pontryagin's method and a newly proposed alternative geometric stability switch criterion. Sharp conditions ensuring stability of the infection persistent equilibrium are derived by applying Pontryagin's method. Using the intracellular delay as the bifurcation parameter and applying an alternative geometric stability switch criterion, we show that the HBV/HCV infection model undergoes stability switches. Furthermore, numerical simulations illustrate that the intracellular delay can induce complex dynamics such as persistence bubbles and chaos.

  6. Dynamics and Collapse in a Power System Model with Voltage Variation: The Damping Effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Jinpeng; Sun, Yong; Yuan, Xiaoming; Kurths, Jürgen; Zhan, Meng

    2016-01-01

    Complex nonlinear phenomena are investigated in a basic power system model of the single-machine-infinite-bus (SMIB) with a synchronous generator modeled by a classical third-order differential equation including both angle dynamics and voltage dynamics, the so-called flux decay equation. In contrast, for the second-order differential equation considering the angle dynamics only, it is the classical swing equation. Similarities and differences of the dynamics generated between the third-order model and the second-order one are studied. We mainly find that, for positive damping, these two models show quite similar behavior, namely, stable fixed point, stable limit cycle, and their coexistence for different parameters. However, for negative damping, the second-order system can only collapse, whereas for the third-order model, more complicated behavior may happen, such as stable fixed point, limit cycle, quasi-periodicity, and chaos. Interesting partial collapse phenomena for angle instability only and not for voltage instability are also found here, including collapse from quasi-periodicity and from chaos etc. These findings not only provide a basic physical picture for power system dynamics in the third-order model incorporating voltage dynamics, but also enable us a deeper understanding of the complex dynamical behavior and even leading to a design of oscillation damping in electric power systems.

  7. Forward and backward dynamics in implicitly defined overlapping generations models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gardini, L.; Hommes, C.; Tramontana, F.; de Vilder, R.

    2009-01-01

    In dynamic economic models derived from optimization principles, the forward equilibrium dynamics may not be uniquely defined, while the backward dynamics is well defined. We derive properties of the global forward equilibrium paths based on properties of the backward dynamics. We propose the

  8. Constructing Dynamic Event Trees from Markov Models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paolo Bucci; Jason Kirschenbaum; Tunc Aldemir; Curtis Smith; Ted Wood

    2006-01-01

    In the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of process plants, Markov models can be used to model accurately the complex dynamic interactions between plant physical process variables (e.g., temperature, pressure, etc.) and the instrumentation and control system that monitors and manages the process. One limitation of this approach that has prevented its use in nuclear power plant PRAs is the difficulty of integrating the results of a Markov analysis into an existing PRA. In this paper, we explore a new approach to the generation of failure scenarios and their compilation into dynamic event trees from a Markov model of the system. These event trees can be integrated into an existing PRA using software tools such as SAPHIRE. To implement our approach, we first construct a discrete-time Markov chain modeling the system of interest by: (a) partitioning the process variable state space into magnitude intervals (cells), (b) using analytical equations or a system simulator to determine the transition probabilities between the cells through the cell-to-cell mapping technique, and, (c) using given failure/repair data for all the components of interest. The Markov transition matrix thus generated can be thought of as a process model describing the stochastic dynamic behavior of the finite-state system. We can therefore search the state space starting from a set of initial states to explore all possible paths to failure (scenarios) with associated probabilities. We can also construct event trees of arbitrary depth by tracing paths from a chosen initiating event and recording the following events while keeping track of the probabilities associated with each branch in the tree. As an example of our approach, we use the simple level control system often used as benchmark in the literature with one process variable (liquid level in a tank), and three control units: a drain unit and two supply units. Each unit includes a separate level sensor to observe the liquid level in the tank

  9. Nonsmooth mechanics models, dynamics and control

    CERN Document Server

    Brogliato, Bernard

    2016-01-01

    Now in its third edition, this standard reference is a comprehensive treatment of nonsmooth mechanical systems refocused to give more prominence to control and modelling. It covers Lagrangian and Newton–Euler systems, detailing mathematical tools such as convex analysis and complementarity theory. The ways in which nonsmooth mechanics influence and are influenced by well-posedness analysis, numerical analysis and simulation, modelling and control are explained. Contact/impact laws, stability theory and trajectory-tracking control are given in-depth exposition connected by a framework formed from complementarity systems and measure-differential inclusions. Links are established with electrical circuits with set-valued nonsmooth elements and with other nonsmooth dynamical systems like impulsive and piecewise linear systems. Nonsmooth Mechanics (third edition) has been substantially rewritten, edited and updated to account for the significant body of results that have emerged in the twenty-first century—incl...

  10. Driven dynamics of simplified tribological models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vanossi, A [CNR-INFM National Research Center S3 and Department of Physics, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Via Campi 213/A, 41100 Modena (Italy); Braun, O M [Institute of Physics, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 03028 Kiev (Ukraine)

    2007-08-01

    Over the last decade, remarkable developments in nanotechnology, notably the use of atomic and friction force microscopes (AFM/FFM), the surface-force apparatus (SFA) and the quartz-crystal microbalance (QCM), have provided the possibility to build experimental devices able to perform analysis on well-characterized materials at the nano- and microscale. Simultaneously, tremendous advances in computing hardware and methodology (molecular dynamics techniques and ab initio calculations) have dramatically increased the ability of theoreticians to simulate tribological processes, supplying very detailed information on the atomic scale for realistic sliding systems. This acceleration in experiments and computations, leading often to very detailed yet complex data, has deeply stimulated the search, rediscovery and implementation of simpler mathematical models such as the generalized Frenkel-Kontorova and Tomlinson models, capable of describing and interpreting, in a more immediate way, the essential physics involved in nonlinear sliding phenomena.

  11. Dynamic modeling and control of CFSTF

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Danesh, Y.; Jalali Farahani, F.

    2001-01-01

    This paper deals with the modeling and control of a continuous-flow fermentation process for the production of alcohol: The dynamic behavior of ferment ors has been developed from mass balance and leads to nonlinear differential equations. Based on the proposed model, two computer algorithms are provided to control output alcohol concentration at the desired value by input flow rate manipulation. The first algorithm is based on a conventional Proportional-Integral-Derivative, in which its parameters are determined in a trial and error procedure. The second algorithm is based on optimal controllers. In this way, the difference between output alcohol concentration and desired value is minimized by flow rate manipulation. Minimization (optimization) is done based on the MARQYARDT procedure. The advantages of this method over the conventional Proportional-Integral-Derivative controller are its higher speed and lack of overshoot

  12. Driven dynamics of simplified tribological models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vanossi, A; Braun, O M

    2007-01-01

    Over the last decade, remarkable developments in nanotechnology, notably the use of atomic and friction force microscopes (AFM/FFM), the surface-force apparatus (SFA) and the quartz-crystal microbalance (QCM), have provided the possibility to build experimental devices able to perform analysis on well-characterized materials at the nano- and microscale. Simultaneously, tremendous advances in computing hardware and methodology (molecular dynamics techniques and ab initio calculations) have dramatically increased the ability of theoreticians to simulate tribological processes, supplying very detailed information on the atomic scale for realistic sliding systems. This acceleration in experiments and computations, leading often to very detailed yet complex data, has deeply stimulated the search, rediscovery and implementation of simpler mathematical models such as the generalized Frenkel-Kontorova and Tomlinson models, capable of describing and interpreting, in a more immediate way, the essential physics involved in nonlinear sliding phenomena

  13. BWR stability using a reduced dynamical model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ballestrin Bolea, J.M.; Blazquez, J.B.

    1990-01-01

    BWR stability can be treated with reduced order dynamical models. When the parameters of the model came from experimental data, the predictions are accurate. In this work an alternative derivation for the void fraction equation is made, but remarking the physical struct-ure of the parameters. As the poles of power/reactivity transfer function are related with the parameters, the measurement of the poles by other techniques such as noise analysis will lead to the parameters, but the system of equations in non-linear. Simple parametric calculat-ion of decay ratio are performed, showing why BWRs become unstable when they are operated at low flow and high power. (Author). 7 refs

  14. Dynamical relaxation in 2HDM models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lalak, Zygmunt; Markiewicz, Adam

    2018-03-01

    Dynamical relaxation provides an interesting solution to the hierarchy problem in face of the missing signatures of any new physics in recent experiments. Through a dynamical process taking place in the inflationary phase of the Universe it manages to achieve a small electroweak scale without introducing new states observable in current experiments. Appropriate approximation makes it possible to derive an explicit formula for the final vevs in the double-scanning scenario extended to a model with two Higgs doublets (2HDM). Analysis of the relaxation in the 2HDM confirms that in a general case it is impossible to keep vevs of both scalars small, unless fine-tuning is present or additional symmetries are cast upon the Lagrangian. Within the slightly constrained variant of the 2HDM, where odd powers of the fields’ expectation values are not present (which can be easily enforced by requiring that the doublets have different gauge transformations or by imposing a global symmetry) it is shown that the difference between the vevs of two scalars tends to be proportional to the cutoff. The analysis of the relaxation in 2HDM indicates that in a general case the relaxation would be stopped by the first doublet that gains a vev, with the other one remaining vevless with a mass of the order of the cutoff. This happens to conform with the inert doublet model.

  15. Dynamical Model about Rumor Spreading with Medium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaxia Zhao

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Rumor is a kind of social remark, that is untrue, and not be confirmed, and spreads on a large scale in a short time. Usually, it can induce a cloud of pressure, anxiety, and panic. Traditionally, it is propagated by word of mouth. Nowadays, with the emergence of the internet, rumors can be spread by instant messengers, emails, or publishing. With this new pattern of spreading, an ISRW dynamical model considering the medium as a subclass is established. Beside the dynamical analysis of the model, we mainly explore the mechanism of spreading of individuals-to-individuals and medium-to-individual. By numerical simulation, we find that if we want to control the rumor spreading, it will not only need to control the rate of change of the spreader subclass, but also need to control the change of the information about rumor in medium which has larger influence. Moreover, to control the effusion of rumor is more important than deleting existing information about rumor. On the one hand, government should enhance the management of internet. On the other hand, relevant legal institutions for punishing the rumor creator and spreader on internet who can be tracked should be established. Using this way, involved authorities can propose efficient measures to control the rumor spreading to keep the stabilization of society and development of economy.

  16. A Model of Project and Organisational Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jenny Leonard

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The strategic, transformational nature of many information systems projects is now widely understood. Large-scale implementations of systems are known to require significant management of organisational change in order to be successful. Moreover, projects are rarely executed in isolation – most organisations have a large programme of projects being implemented at any one time. However, project and value management methodologies provide ad hoc definitions of the relationship between a project and its environment. This limits the ability of an organisation to manage the larger dynamics between projects and organisations, over time, and between projects. The contribution of this paper, therefore, is to use literature on organisational theory to provide a more systematic understanding of this area. The organisational facilitators required to obtain value from a project are categorised, and the processes required to develop those facilitators are defined. This formalisation facilitates generalisation between projects and highlights any time and path dependencies required in developing organisational facilitators. The model therefore has the potential to contribute to the development of IS project management theory within dynamic organisational contexts. Six cases illustrate how this model could be used.

  17. Microscopic to Macroscopic Dynamical Models of Sociality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solis Salas, Citlali; Woolley, Thomas; Pearce, Eiluned; Dunbar, Robin; Maini, Philip; Social; Evolutionary Neuroscience Research Group (Senrg) Collaboration

    To help them survive, social animals, such as humans, need to share knowledge and responsibilities with other members of the species. The larger their social network, the bigger the pool of knowledge available to them. Since time is a limited resource, a way of optimising its use is meeting amongst individuals whilst fulfilling other necessities. In this sense it is useful to know how many, and how often, early humans could meet during a given period of time whilst performing other necessary tasks, such as food gathering. Using a simplified model of these dynamics, which comprehend encounter and memory, we aim at producing a lower-bound to the number of meetings hunter-gatherers could have during a year. We compare the stochastic agent-based model to its mean-field approximation and explore some of the features necessary for the difference between low population dynamics and its continuum limit. We observe an emergent property that could have an inference in the layered structure seen in each person's social organisation. This could give some insight into hunter-gatherer's lives and the development of the social layered structure we have today. With support from the Mexican Council for Science and Technology (CONACyT), the Public Education Secretariat (SEP), and the Mexican National Autonomous University's Foundation (Fundacion UNAM).

  18. Modeling Insurgent Network Structure and Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabbay, Michael; Thirkill-Mackelprang, Ashley

    2010-03-01

    We present a methodology for mapping insurgent network structure based on their public rhetoric. Indicators of cooperative links between insurgent groups at both the leadership and rank-and-file levels are used, such as joint policy statements or joint operations claims. In addition, a targeting policy measure is constructed on the basis of insurgent targeting claims. Network diagrams which integrate these measures of insurgent cooperation and ideology are generated for different periods of the Iraqi and Afghan insurgencies. The network diagrams exhibit meaningful changes which track the evolution of the strategic environment faced by insurgent groups. Correlations between targeting policy and network structure indicate that insurgent targeting claims are aimed at establishing a group identity among the spectrum of rank-and-file insurgency supporters. A dynamical systems model of insurgent alliance formation and factionalism is presented which evolves the relationship between insurgent group dyads as a function of their ideological differences and their current relationships. The ability of the model to qualitatively and quantitatively capture insurgent network dynamics observed in the data is discussed.

  19. Modeling quantum fluid dynamics at nonzero temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berloff, Natalia G.; Brachet, Marc; Proukakis, Nick P.

    2014-01-01

    The detailed understanding of the intricate dynamics of quantum fluids, in particular in the rapidly growing subfield of quantum turbulence which elucidates the evolution of a vortex tangle in a superfluid, requires an in-depth understanding of the role of finite temperature in such systems. The Landau two-fluid model is the most successful hydrodynamical theory of superfluid helium, but by the nature of the scale separations it cannot give an adequate description of the processes involving vortex dynamics and interactions. In our contribution we introduce a framework based on a nonlinear classical-field equation that is mathematically identical to the Landau model and provides a mechanism for severing and coalescence of vortex lines, so that the questions related to the behavior of quantized vortices can be addressed self-consistently. The correct equation of state as well as nonlocality of interactions that leads to the existence of the roton minimum can also be introduced in such description. We review and apply the ideas developed for finite-temperature description of weakly interacting Bose gases as possible extensions and numerical refinements of the proposed method. We apply this method to elucidate the behavior of the vortices during expansion and contraction following the change in applied pressure. We show that at low temperatures, during the contraction of the vortex core as the negative pressure grows back to positive values, the vortex line density grows through a mechanism of vortex multiplication. This mechanism is suppressed at high temperatures. PMID:24704874

  20. A particle based simulation model for glacier dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. A. Åström

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available A particle-based computer simulation model was developed for investigating the dynamics of glaciers. In the model, large ice bodies are made of discrete elastic particles which are bound together by massless elastic beams. These beams can break, which induces brittle behaviour. At loads below fracture, beams may also break and reform with small probabilities to incorporate slowly deforming viscous behaviour in the model. This model has the advantage that it can simulate important physical processes such as ice calving and fracturing in a more realistic way than traditional continuum models. For benchmarking purposes the deformation of an ice block on a slip-free surface was compared to that of a similar block simulated with a Finite Element full-Stokes continuum model. Two simulations were performed: (1 calving of an ice block partially supported in water, similar to a grounded marine glacier terminus, and (2 fracturing of an ice block on an inclined plane of varying basal friction, which could represent transition to fast flow or surging. Despite several approximations, including restriction to two-dimensions and simplified water-ice interaction, the model was able to reproduce the size distributions of the debris observed in calving, which may be approximated by universal scaling laws. On a moderate slope, a large ice block was stable and quiescent as long as there was enough of friction against the substrate. For a critical length of frictional contact, global sliding began, and the model block disintegrated in a manner suggestive of a surging glacier. In this case the fragment size distribution produced was typical of a grinding process.

  1. Incorporating a Time Horizon in Rate-of-Return Estimations: Discounted Cash Flow Model in Electric Transmission Rate Cases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chatterjee, Bishu; Sharp, Peter A.

    2006-01-01

    Electric transmission and other rate cases use a form of the discounted cash flow model with a single long-term growth rate to estimate rates of return on equity. It cannot incorporate information about the appropriate time horizon for which analysts' estimates of earnings growth have predictive powers. Only a non-constant growth model can explicitly recognize the importance of the time horizon in an ROE calculation. (author)

  2. Computational Fluid Dynamics Modeling of Bacillus anthracis ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Journal Article Three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics and Lagrangian particle deposition models were developed to compare the deposition of aerosolized Bacillus anthracis spores in the respiratory airways of a human with that of the rabbit, a species commonly used in the study of anthrax disease. The respiratory airway geometries for each species were derived from computed tomography (CT) or µCT images. Both models encompassed airways that extended from the external nose to the lung with a total of 272 outlets in the human model and 2878 outlets in the rabbit model. All simulations of spore deposition were conducted under transient, inhalation-exhalation breathing conditions using average species-specific minute volumes. Four different exposure scenarios were modeled in the rabbit based upon experimental inhalation studies. For comparison, human simulations were conducted at the highest exposure concentration used during the rabbit experimental exposures. Results demonstrated that regional spore deposition patterns were sensitive to airway geometry and ventilation profiles. Despite the complex airway geometries in the rabbit nose, higher spore deposition efficiency was predicted in the upper conducting airways of the human at the same air concentration of anthrax spores. This greater deposition of spores in the upper airways in the human resulted in lower penetration and deposition in the tracheobronchial airways and the deep lung than that predict

  3. Dynamic Causal Models and Autopoietic Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    OLIVIER DAVID

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Dynamic Causal Modelling (DCM and the theory of autopoietic systems are two important conceptual frameworks. In this review, we suggest that they can be combined to answer important questions about self-organising systems like the brain. DCM has been developed recently by the neuroimaging community to explain, using biophysical models, the non-invasive brain imaging data are caused by neural processes. It allows one to ask mechanistic questions about the implementation of cerebral processes. In DCM the parameters of biophysical models are estimated from measured data and the evidence for each model is evaluated. This enables one to test different functional hypotheses (i.e., models for a given data set. Autopoiesis and related formal theories of biological systems as autonomous machines represent a body of concepts with many successful applications. However, autopoiesis has remained largely theoretical and has not penetrated the empiricism of cognitive neuroscience. In this review, we try to show the connections that exist between DCM and autopoiesis. In particular, we propose a simple modification to standard formulations of DCM that includes autonomous processes. The idea is to exploit the machinery of the system identification of DCMs in neuroimaging to test the face validity of the autopoietic theory applied to neural subsystems. We illustrate the theoretical concepts and their implications for interpreting electroencephalographic signals acquired during amygdala stimulation in an epileptic patient. The results suggest that DCM represents a relevant biophysical approach to brain functional organisation, with a potential that is yet to be fully evaluated

  4. Coordinated supply chain dynamic production planning model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandra, Charu; Grabis, Janis

    2001-10-01

    Coordination of different and often contradicting interests of individual supply chain members is one of the important issues in supply chain management because the individual members can not succeed without success of the supply chain and vice versa. This paper investigates a supply chain dynamic production planning problem with emphasis on coordination. A planning problem is formally described using a supply chain kernel, which defines supply chain configuration, management policies, available resources and objectives both at supply chain or macro and supply chain member or micro levels. The coordinated model is solved in order to balance decisions made at the macro and micro levels and members' profitability is used as the coordination criterion. The coordinated model is used to determine inventory levels and production capacity across the supply chain. Application of the coordinated model distributes costs burden uniformly among supply chain members and preserves overall efficiency of the supply chain. Influence of the demand series uncertainty is investigated. The production planning model is a part of the integrated supply chain decision modeling system, which is shared among the supply chain members across the Internet.

  5. DYNAMIC MODELLING OF VIBRATIONS ASSISTED DRILLING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mathieu LADONNE

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The number of multi-materials staking configurations for aeronautical structures is increasing, with the evolution of composite and metallic materials. For drilling the fastening holes, the processes of Vibration Assisted Drilling (VAD expand rapidly, as it permits to improve reliability of drilling operations on multilayer structures. Among these processes of VAD, the solution with forced vibrations added to conventional feed to create a discontinuous cutting is the more developed in industry. The back and forth movement allows to improve the evacuation of chips by breaking it. This technology introduces two new operating parameters, the frequency and the amplitude of the oscillation. To optimize the process, the choice of those parameters requires first to model precisely the operation cutting and dynamics. In this paper, a kinematic modelling of the process is firstly proposed. The limits of the model are analysed through comparison between simulations and measurements. The proposed model is used to develop a cutting force model that allows foreseeing the operating conditions which ensure good chips breaking and tool life improvement.

  6. Strategies for Incorporating Women-Specific Sexuality Education into Addiction Treatment Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, Raven

    2007-01-01

    This paper advocates for the incorporation of a women-specific sexuality curriculum in the addiction treatment process to aid in sexual healing and provide for aftercare issues. Sexuality in addiction treatment modalities is often approached from a sex-negative stance, or that of sexual victimization. Sexual issues are viewed as addictive in and…

  7. Dynamic dielectrophoresis model of multi-phase ionic fluids.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ying Yan

    Full Text Available Ionic-based dielectrophoretic microchips have attracted significant attention due to their wide-ranging applications in electro kinetic and biological experiments. In this work, a numerical method is used to simulate the dynamic behaviors of ionic droplets in a microchannel under the effect of dielectrophoresis. When a discrete liquid dielectric is encompassed within a continuous fluid dielectric placed in an electric field, an electric force is produced due to the dielectrophoresis effect. If either or both of the fluids are ionic liquids, the magnitude and even the direction of the force will be changed because the net ionic charge induced by an electric field can affect the polarization degree of the dielectrics. However, using a dielectrophoresis model, assuming ideal dielectrics, results in significant errors. To avoid the inaccuracy caused by the model, this work incorporates the electrode kinetic equation and defines a relationship between the polarization charge and the net ionic charge. According to the simulation conditions presented herein, the electric force obtained in this work has an error exceeding 70% of the actual value if the false effect of net ionic charge is not accounted for, which would result in significant issues in the design and optimization of experimental parameters. Therefore, there is a clear motivation for developing a model adapted to ionic liquids to provide precise control for the dielectrophoresis of multi-phase ionic liquids.

  8. Dynamic dielectrophoresis model of multi-phase ionic fluids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Ying; Luo, Jing; Guo, Dan; Wen, Shizhu

    2015-01-01

    Ionic-based dielectrophoretic microchips have attracted significant attention due to their wide-ranging applications in electro kinetic and biological experiments. In this work, a numerical method is used to simulate the dynamic behaviors of ionic droplets in a microchannel under the effect of dielectrophoresis. When a discrete liquid dielectric is encompassed within a continuous fluid dielectric placed in an electric field, an electric force is produced due to the dielectrophoresis effect. If either or both of the fluids are ionic liquids, the magnitude and even the direction of the force will be changed because the net ionic charge induced by an electric field can affect the polarization degree of the dielectrics. However, using a dielectrophoresis model, assuming ideal dielectrics, results in significant errors. To avoid the inaccuracy caused by the model, this work incorporates the electrode kinetic equation and defines a relationship between the polarization charge and the net ionic charge. According to the simulation conditions presented herein, the electric force obtained in this work has an error exceeding 70% of the actual value if the false effect of net ionic charge is not accounted for, which would result in significant issues in the design and optimization of experimental parameters. Therefore, there is a clear motivation for developing a model adapted to ionic liquids to provide precise control for the dielectrophoresis of multi-phase ionic liquids.

  9. An Epidemiological Model of Rift Valley Fever with Spatial Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tianchan Niu

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available As a category A agent in the Center for Disease Control bioterrorism list, Rift Valley fever (RVF is considered a major threat to the United States (USA. Should the pathogen be intentionally or unintentionally introduced to the continental USA, there is tremendous potential for economic damages due to loss of livestock, trade restrictions, and subsequent food supply chain disruptions. We have incorporated the effects of space into a mathematical model of RVF in order to study the dynamics of the pathogen spread as affected by the movement of humans, livestock, and mosquitoes. The model accounts for the horizontal transmission of Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV between two mosquito and one livestock species, and mother-to-offspring transmission of virus in one of the mosquito species. Space effects are introduced by dividing geographic space into smaller patches and considering the patch-to-patch movement of species. For each patch, a system of ordinary differential equations models fractions of populations susceptible to, incubating, infectious with, or immune to RVFV. The main contribution of this work is a methodology for analyzing the likelihood of pathogen establishment should an introduction occur into an area devoid of RVF. Examples are provided for general and specific cases to illustrate the methodology.

  10. Dynamic model for the assessment of radiological exposure to marine biota

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vives i Batlle, J. [Westlakes Scientific Consulting Ltd, The Princess Royal Building, Westlakes Science and Technology Park, Moor Row, Cumbria CA24 3LN (United Kingdom)], E-mail: jordi.vives@westlakes.ac.uk; Wilson, R.C.; Watts, S.J.; Jones, S.R.; McDonald, P.; Vives-Lynch, S. [Westlakes Scientific Consulting Ltd, The Princess Royal Building, Westlakes Science and Technology Park, Moor Row, Cumbria CA24 3LN (United Kingdom)

    2008-11-15

    A generic approach has been developed to simulate dynamically the uptake and turnover of radionuclides by marine biota. The approach incorporates a three-compartment biokinetic model based on first order linear kinetics, with interchange rates between the organism and its surrounding environment. Model rate constants are deduced as a function of known parameters: biological half-lives of elimination, concentration factors and a sample point of the retention curve, allowing for the representation of multi-component release. The new methodology has been tested and validated in respect of non-dynamic assessment models developed for regulatory purposes. The approach has also been successfully tested against research dynamic models developed to represent the uptake of technetium and radioiodine by lobsters and winkles. Assessments conducted on two realistic test scenarios demonstrated the importance of simulating time-dependency for ecosystems in which environmental levels of radionuclides are not in equilibrium.

  11. Computational modeling of intraocular gas dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noohi, P; Abdekhodaie, M J; Cheng, Y L

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop a computational model to simulate the dynamics of intraocular gas behavior in pneumatic retinopexy (PR) procedure. The presented model predicted intraocular gas volume at any time and determined the tolerance angle within which a patient can maneuver and still gas completely covers the tear(s). Computational fluid dynamics calculations were conducted to describe PR procedure. The geometrical model was constructed based on the rabbit and human eye dimensions. SF_6 in the form of pure and diluted with air was considered as the injected gas. The presented results indicated that the composition of the injected gas affected the gas absorption rate and gas volume. After injection of pure SF_6, the bubble expanded to 2.3 times of its initial volume during the first 23 h, but when diluted SF_6 was used, no significant expansion was observed. Also, head positioning for the treatment of retinal tear influenced the rate of gas absorption. Moreover, the determined tolerance angle depended on the bubble and tear size. More bubble expansion and smaller retinal tear caused greater tolerance angle. For example, after 23 h, for the tear size of 2 mm the tolerance angle of using pure SF_6 is 1.4 times more than that of using diluted SF_6 with 80% air. Composition of the injected gas and conditions of the tear in PR may dramatically affect the gas absorption rate and gas volume. Quantifying these effects helps to predict the tolerance angle and improve treatment efficiency. (paper)

  12. Dynamic complexities in a parasitoid-host-parasitoid ecological model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu Hengguo; Zhao Min; Lv Songjuan; Zhu Lili

    2009-01-01

    Chaotic dynamics have been observed in a wide range of population models. In this study, the complex dynamics in a discrete-time ecological model of parasitoid-host-parasitoid are presented. The model shows that the superiority coefficient not only stabilizes the dynamics, but may strongly destabilize them as well. Many forms of complex dynamics were observed, including pitchfork bifurcation with quasi-periodicity, period-doubling cascade, chaotic crisis, chaotic bands with narrow or wide periodic window, intermittent chaos, and supertransient behavior. Furthermore, computation of the largest Lyapunov exponent demonstrated the chaotic dynamic behavior of the model

  13. Dynamic complexities in a parasitoid-host-parasitoid ecological model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu Hengguo [School of Mathematic and Information Science, Wenzhou University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang 325035 (China); Zhao Min [School of Life and Environmental Science, Wenzhou University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang 325027 (China)], E-mail: zmcn@tom.com; Lv Songjuan; Zhu Lili [School of Mathematic and Information Science, Wenzhou University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang 325035 (China)

    2009-01-15

    Chaotic dynamics have been observed in a wide range of population models. In this study, the complex dynamics in a discrete-time ecological model of parasitoid-host-parasitoid are presented. The model shows that the superiority coefficient not only stabilizes the dynamics, but may strongly destabilize them as well. Many forms of complex dynamics were observed, including pitchfork bifurcation with quasi-periodicity, period-doubling cascade, chaotic crisis, chaotic bands with narrow or wide periodic window, intermittent chaos, and supertransient behavior. Furthermore, computation of the largest Lyapunov exponent demonstrated the chaotic dynamic behavior of the model.

  14. Modelling and simulation of dynamic recrystallization (DRX) in OFHC copper at very high strain rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Testa, G.; Bonora, N.; Ruggiero, A.; Iannitti, G.; Persechino, I.; Hörnqvist, M.; Mortazavi, N.

    2017-01-01

    At high strain rates, deformation processes are essentially adiabatic and if the plastic work is large enough dynamic recrystallization can occur. In this work, an examination on microstructure evolution of OFHC copper in Dynamic Tensile Extrusion (DTE) test, performed at 400 m/s, was carried out. EBSD investigations, along the center line of the fragment remaining in the extrusion die, showed a progressive elongation of the grains, and an accompanying development of a strong + dual fiber texture. Discontinuous dynamic recrystallization (DRX) occurred at larger strains, and it was showed that nucleation occurred during straining. A criterion for DRX to occur, based on the evolution of Zener-Hollomon parameter during the dynamic deformation process, is proposed. Finally, DTE test was simulated using the modified Rusinek-Klepaczko constitutive model incorporating a model for the prediction of DRX initiation.

  15. Prediction Models for Dynamic Demand Response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aman, Saima; Frincu, Marc; Chelmis, Charalampos; Noor, Muhammad; Simmhan, Yogesh; Prasanna, Viktor K.

    2015-11-02

    As Smart Grids move closer to dynamic curtailment programs, Demand Response (DR) events will become necessary not only on fixed time intervals and weekdays predetermined by static policies, but also during changing decision periods and weekends to react to real-time demand signals. Unique challenges arise in this context vis-a-vis demand prediction and curtailment estimation and the transformation of such tasks into an automated, efficient dynamic demand response (D2R) process. While existing work has concentrated on increasing the accuracy of prediction models for DR, there is a lack of studies for prediction models for D2R, which we address in this paper. Our first contribution is the formal definition of D2R, and the description of its challenges and requirements. Our second contribution is a feasibility analysis of very-short-term prediction of electricity consumption for D2R over a diverse, large-scale dataset that includes both small residential customers and large buildings. Our third, and major contribution is a set of insights into the predictability of electricity consumption in the context of D2R. Specifically, we focus on prediction models that can operate at a very small data granularity (here 15-min intervals), for both weekdays and weekends - all conditions that characterize scenarios for D2R. We find that short-term time series and simple averaging models used by Independent Service Operators and utilities achieve superior prediction accuracy. We also observe that workdays are more predictable than weekends and holiday. Also, smaller customers have large variation in consumption and are less predictable than larger buildings. Key implications of our findings are that better models are required for small customers and for non-workdays, both of which are critical for D2R. Also, prediction models require just few days’ worth of data indicating that small amounts of

  16. Analytical dynamic modeling of fast trilayer polypyrrole bending actuators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amiri Moghadam, Amir Ali; Moavenian, Majid; Tahani, Masoud; Torabi, Keivan

    2011-01-01

    Analytical modeling of conjugated polymer actuators with complicated electro-chemo-mechanical dynamics is an interesting area for research, due to the wide range of applications including biomimetic robots and biomedical devices. Although there have been extensive reports on modeling the electrochemical dynamics of polypyrrole (PPy) bending actuators, mechanical dynamics modeling of the actuators remains unexplored. PPy actuators can operate with low voltage while producing large displacement in comparison to robotic joints, they do not have friction or backlash, but they suffer from some disadvantages such as creep and hysteresis. In this paper, a complete analytical dynamic model for fast trilayer polypyrrole bending actuators has been proposed and named the analytical multi-domain dynamic actuator (AMDDA) model. First an electrical admittance model of the actuator will be obtained based on a distributed RC line; subsequently a proper mechanical dynamic model will be derived, based on Hamilton's principle. The purposed modeling approach will be validated based on recently published experimental results

  17. e-Commerce and supply chains: Modelling of dynamics through ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    The dynamics associated with two production planning and control policies are modelled, viz. .... Hence, there is a strong need to design a dynamic knowledge inference system .... sell a variety of components to the subassembly manufacturer.

  18. Immersive visualization of dynamic CFD model results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Comparato, J.R.; Ringel, K.L.; Heath, D.J.

    2004-01-01

    With immersive visualization the engineer has the means for vividly understanding problem causes and discovering opportunities to improve design. Software can generate an interactive world in which collaborators experience the results of complex mathematical simulations such as computational fluid dynamic (CFD) modeling. Such software, while providing unique benefits over traditional visualization techniques, presents special development challenges. The visualization of large quantities of data interactively requires both significant computational power and shrewd data management. On the computational front, commodity hardware is outperforming large workstations in graphical quality and frame rates. Also, 64-bit commodity computing shows promise in enabling interactive visualization of large datasets. Initial interactive transient visualization methods and examples are presented, as well as development trends in commodity hardware and clustering. Interactive, immersive visualization relies on relevant data being stored in active memory for fast response to user requests. For large or transient datasets, data management becomes a key issue. Techniques for dynamic data loading and data reduction are presented as means to increase visualization performance. (author)

  19. Modelling of the PELE fragmentation dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verreault, J.

    2014-05-01

    The Penetrator with Enhanced Lateral Effect (PELE) is a type of explosive-free projectile that undergoes radial fragmentation upon an impact with a target plate. This type of projectile is composed of a brittle cylindrical shell (the jacket) filled in its core with a material characterized with a large Poisson's ratio. Upon an impact with a target, the axial compression causes the filling to expand in the radial direction. However, due to the brittleness of the jacket material, very little radial deformation can occur which creates a radial stress between the two materials and a hoop stress in the jacket. Fragmentation of the jacket occurs if the hoop stress exceeds the material's ultimate stress. The PELE fragmentation dynamics is explored via Finite-Element Method (FEM) simulations using the Autodyn explicit dynamics hydrocode. The numerical results are compared with an analytical model based on wave interactions, as well as with the experimental investigation of Paulus and Schirm (1996). The comparison is based on the mechanical stress in the filling and the qualitative fragmentation of the jacket.

  20. Modelling of the PELE fragmentation dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verreault, J

    2014-01-01

    The Penetrator with Enhanced Lateral Effect (PELE) is a type of explosive-free projectile that undergoes radial fragmentation upon an impact with a target plate. This type of projectile is composed of a brittle cylindrical shell (the jacket) filled in its core with a material characterized with a large Poisson's ratio. Upon an impact with a target, the axial compression causes the filling to expand in the radial direction. However, due to the brittleness of the jacket material, very little radial deformation can occur which creates a radial stress between the two materials and a hoop stress in the jacket. Fragmentation of the jacket occurs if the hoop stress exceeds the material's ultimate stress. The PELE fragmentation dynamics is explored via Finite-Element Method (FEM) simulations using the Autodyn explicit dynamics hydrocode. The numerical results are compared with an analytical model based on wave interactions, as well as with the experimental investigation of Paulus and Schirm (1996). The comparison is based on the mechanical stress in the filling and the qualitative fragmentation of the jacket.