Understanding the Dynamics of Socio-Hydrological Environment: a Conceptual Framework

Science.gov (United States)

Woyessa, Y.; Welderufael, W.; Edossa, D.

2011-12-01

Human actions affect ecological systems and the services they provide through various activities, such as land use, water use, pollution and climate change. Climate change is perhaps one of the most important sustainable development challenges that threaten to undo many of the development efforts being made to reach the targets set for the Millennium Development Goals. Understanding the change of ecosystems under different scenarios of climate and biophysical conditions could assist in bringing the issue of ecosystem services into decision making process. Similarly, the impacts of land use change on ecosystems and biodiversity have received considerable attention from ecologists and hydrologists alike. Land use change in a catchment can impact on water supply by altering hydrological processes, such as infiltration, groundwater recharge, base flow and direct runoff. In the past a variety of models were used for predicting land-use changes. Recently the focus has shifted away from using mathematically oriented models to agent-based modelling (ABM) approach to simulate land use scenarios. A conceptual framework is being developed which integrates climate change scenarios and the human dimension of land use decision into a hydrological model in order to assess its impacts on the socio-hydrological dynamics of a river basin. The following figures present the framework for the analysis and modelling of the socio-hydrological dynamics. Keywords: climate change, land use, river basin

Land-surface modelling in hydrological perspective

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Overgaard, Jesper; Rosbjerg, Dan; Butts, M.B.

2006-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to provide a review of the different types of energy-based land-surface models (LSMs) and discuss some of the new possibilities that will arise when energy-based LSMs are combined with distributed hydrological modelling. We choose to focus on energy-based approaches......, and the difficulties inherent in various evaluation procedures are presented. Finally, the dynamic coupling of hydrological and atmospheric models is explored, and the perspectives of such efforts are discussed......., because in comparison to the traditional potential evapotranspiration models, these approaches allow for a stronger link to remote sensing and atmospheric modelling. New opportunities for evaluation of distributed land-surface models through application of remote sensing are discussed in detail...

A system dynamic model to estimate hydrological processes and water use in a eucalypt plantation

Science.gov (United States)

Ying Ouyang; Daping Xu; Ted Leininger; Ningnan Zhang

2016-01-01

Eucalypts have been identified as one of the best feedstocks for bioenergy production due to theirfast-growth rate and coppicing ability. However, their water use efficiency along with the adverse envi-ronmental impacts is still a controversial issue. In this study, a system dynamic model was developed toestimate the hydrological processes and water use in a eucalyptus...

Assimilation of remote sensing observations into a continuous distributed hydrological model: impacts on the hydrologic cycle

Science.gov (United States)

Laiolo, Paola; Gabellani, Simone; Campo, Lorenzo; Cenci, Luca; Silvestro, Francesco; Delogu, Fabio; Boni, Giorgio; Rudari, Roberto

2015-04-01

The reliable estimation of hydrological variables (e.g. soil moisture, evapotranspiration, surface temperature) in space and time is of fundamental importance in operational hydrology to improve the forecast of the rainfall-runoff response of catchments and, consequently, flood predictions. Nowadays remote sensing can offer a chance to provide good space-time estimates of several hydrological variables and then improve hydrological model performances especially in environments with scarce in-situ data. This work investigates the impact of the assimilation of different remote sensing products on the hydrological cycle by using a continuous physically based distributed hydrological model. Three soil moisture products derived by ASCAT (Advanced SCATterometer) are used to update the model state variables. The satellite-derived products are assimilated into the hydrological model using different assimilation techniques: a simple nudging and the Ensemble Kalman Filter. Moreover two assimilation strategies are evaluated to assess the impact of assimilating the satellite products at model spatial resolution or at the satellite scale. The experiments are carried out for three Italian catchments on multi year period. The benefits on the model predictions of discharge, LST, evapotranspiration and soil moisture dynamics are tested and discussed.

Dynamic Collaboration Infrastructure for Hydrologic Science

Science.gov (United States)

Tarboton, D. G.; Idaszak, R.; Castillo, C.; Yi, H.; Jiang, F.; Jones, N.; Goodall, J. L.

2016-12-01

Data and modeling infrastructure is becoming increasingly accessible to water scientists. HydroShare is a collaborative environment that currently offers water scientists the ability to access modeling and data infrastructure in support of data intensive modeling and analysis. It supports the sharing of and collaboration around "resources" which are social objects defined to include both data and models in a structured standardized format. Users collaborate around these objects via comments, ratings, and groups. HydroShare also supports web services and cloud based computation for the execution of hydrologic models and analysis and visualization of hydrologic data. However, the quantity and variety of data and modeling infrastructure available that can be accessed from environments like HydroShare is increasing. Storage infrastructure can range from one's local PC to campus or organizational storage to storage in the cloud. Modeling or computing infrastructure can range from one's desktop to departmental clusters to national HPC resources to grid and cloud computing resources. How does one orchestrate this vast number of data and computing infrastructure without needing to correspondingly learn each new system? A common limitation across these systems is the lack of efficient integration between data transport mechanisms and the corresponding high-level services to support large distributed data and compute operations. A scientist running a hydrology model from their desktop may require processing a large collection of files across the aforementioned storage and compute resources and various national databases. To address these community challenges a proof-of-concept prototype was created integrating HydroShare with RADII (Resource Aware Data-centric collaboration Infrastructure) to provide software infrastructure to enable the comprehensive and rapid dynamic deployment of what we refer to as "collaborative infrastructure." In this presentation we discuss the

Dynamic Inversion for Hydrological Process Monitoring with Electrical Resistance Tomography Under Model Uncertainty

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lehikoinen, A.; Huttunen, J.M.J.; Finsterle, S.; Kowalsky, M.B.; Kaipio, J.P.

2009-08-01

We propose an approach for imaging the dynamics of complex hydrological processes. The evolution of electrically conductive fluids in porous media is imaged using time-lapse electrical resistance tomography. The related dynamic inversion problem is solved using Bayesian filtering techniques, that is, it is formulated as a sequential state estimation problem in which the target is an evolving posterior probability density of the system state. The dynamical inversion framework is based on the state space representation of the system, which involves the construction of a stochastic evolution model and an observation model. The observation model used in this paper consists of the complete electrode model for ERT, with Archie's law relating saturations to electrical conductivity. The evolution model is an approximate model for simulating flow through partially saturated porous media. Unavoidable modeling and approximation errors in both the observation and evolution models are considered by computing approximate statistics for these errors. These models are then included in the construction of the posterior probability density of the estimated system state. This approximation error method allows the use of approximate - and therefore computationally efficient - observation and evolution models in the Bayesian filtering. We consider a synthetic example and show that the incorporation of an explicit model for the model uncertainties in the state space representation can yield better estimates than a frame-by-frame imaging approach.

Modeling of hydrological processes in arid agricultural regions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jiang LI,Xiaomin MAO,Shaozhong KANG,David A. BARRY

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Understanding of hydrological processes, including consideration of interactions between vegetation growth and water transfer in the root zone, underpins efficient use of water resources in arid-zone agriculture. Water transfers take place in the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum, and include groundwater dynamics, unsaturated zone flow, evaporation/transpiration from vegetated/bare soil and surface water, agricultural canal/surface water flow and seepage, and well pumping. Models can be categorized into three classes: (1 regional distributed hydrological models with various land uses, (2 groundwater-soil-plant-atmosphere continuum models that neglect lateral water fluxes, and (3 coupled models with groundwater flow and unsaturated zone water dynamics. This review highlights, in addition, future research challenges in modeling arid-zone agricultural systems, e.g., to effectively assimilate data from remote sensing, and to fully reflect climate change effects at various model scales.

SWAT Modeling for Depression-Dominated Areas: How Do Depressions Manipulate Hydrologic Modeling?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohsen Tahmasebi Nasab

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Modeling hydrologic processes for depression-dominated areas such as the North American Prairie Pothole Region is complex and reliant on a clear understanding of dynamic filling-spilling-merging-splitting processes of numerous depressions over the surface. Puddles are spatially distributed over a watershed and their sizes, storages, and interactions vary over time. However, most hydrologic models fail to account for these dynamic processes. Like other traditional methods, depressions are filled as a required preprocessing step in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT. The objective of this study was to facilitate hydrologic modeling for depression-dominated areas by coupling SWAT with a Puddle Delineation (PD algorithm. In the coupled PD-SWAT model, the PD algorithm was utilized to quantify topographic details, including the characteristics, distribution, and hierarchical relationships of depressions, which were incorporated into SWAT at the hydrologic response unit (HRU scale. The new PD-SWAT model was tested for a large watershed in North Dakota under real precipitation events. In addition, hydrologic modeling of a small watershed was conducted under two extreme high and low synthetic precipitation conditions. In particular, the PD-SWAT was compared against the regular SWAT based on depressionless DEMs. The impact of depressions on the hydrologic modeling of the large and small watersheds was evaluated. The simulation results for the large watershed indicated that SWAT systematically overestimated the outlet discharge, which can be attributed to the failure to account for the hydrologic effects of depressions. It was found from the PD-SWAT modeling results that at the HRU scale surface runoff initiation was significantly delayed due to the threshold control of depressions. Under the high precipitation scenario, depressions increased the surface runoff peak. However, the low precipitation scenario could not fully fill depressions to reach

Hydrological application of the INCA model with varying spatial resolution and nitrogen dynamics in a northern river basin

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Rankinen

2002-01-01

Full Text Available As a first step in applying the Integrated Nitrogen model for CAtchments (INCA to the Simojoki river basin (3160 km2, this paper focuses on calibration of the hydrological part of the model and nitrogen (N dynamics in the river during the 1980s and 1990s. The model application utilised the GIS land-use and forest classification of Finland together with a recent forest inventory based on remote sensing. In the INCA model, the Hydrologically Effective Rainfall (HER is used to drive the water flow and N fluxes through the catchment system. HER was derived from the Watershed Simulation and Forecast System (WSFS. The basic component of the WSFS is a conceptual hydrological model which simulates runoff using precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and temperature data as inputs. Spatially uniform, lumped input data were calculated for the whole river basin and spatially semi-distributed input data were calculated for each of the nine sub-basins. When comparing discharges simulated by the INCA model with observed values, a better fit was obtained with the semi-distributed data than with the spatially uniform data (R2 0.78 v. 0.70 at Hosionkoski and 0.88 v. 0.78 at the river outlet. The timing of flow peaks was simulated rather well with both approaches, although the semi-distributed input data gave a more realistic simulation of low flow periods and the magnitude of spring flow peaks. The river basin has a relatively closed N cycle with low input and output fluxes of inorganic N. During 1982-2000, the average total N flux to the sea was 715 tonnes yr–1, of which 6% was NH4-N, 14% NO3-N, and 80% organic N. Annual variation in river flow and the concentrations of major N fractions in river water, and factors affecting this variation are discussed. Keywords: northern river basin, nitrogen, forest management, hydrology, dynamic modelling, semi-distributed modelling

Multi-criteria evaluation of hydrological models

Science.gov (United States)

Rakovec, Oldrich; Clark, Martyn; Weerts, Albrecht; Hill, Mary; Teuling, Ryan; Uijlenhoet, Remko

2013-04-01

Over the last years, there is a tendency in the hydrological community to move from the simple conceptual models towards more complex, physically/process-based hydrological models. This is because conceptual models often fail to simulate the dynamics of the observations. However, there is little agreement on how much complexity needs to be considered within the complex process-based models. One way to proceed to is to improve understanding of what is important and unimportant in the models considered. The aim of this ongoing study is to evaluate structural model adequacy using alternative conceptual and process-based models of hydrological systems, with an emphasis on understanding how model complexity relates to observed hydrological processes. Some of the models require considerable execution time and the computationally frugal sensitivity analysis, model calibration and uncertainty quantification methods are well-suited to providing important insights for models with lengthy execution times. The current experiment evaluates two version of the Framework for Understanding Structural Errors (FUSE), which both enable running model inter-comparison experiments. One supports computationally efficient conceptual models, and the second supports more-process-based models that tend to have longer execution times. The conceptual FUSE combines components of 4 existing conceptual hydrological models. The process-based framework consists of different forms of Richard's equations, numerical solutions, groundwater parameterizations and hydraulic conductivity distribution. The hydrological analysis of the model processes has evolved from focusing only on simulated runoff (final model output), to also including other criteria such as soil moisture and groundwater levels. Parameter importance and associated structural importance are evaluated using different types of sensitivity analyses techniques, making use of both robust global methods (e.g. Sobol') as well as several

A model of hydrological and mechanical feedbacks of preferential fissure flow in a slow-moving landslide

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. M. Krzeminska

2013-03-01

Full Text Available The importance of hydrological processes for landslide activity is generally accepted. However, the relationship between precipitation, hydrological responses and movement is not straightforward. Groundwater recharge is mostly controlled by the hydrological material properties and the structure (e.g., layering, preferential flow paths such as fissures of the unsaturated zone. In slow-moving landslides, differential displacements caused by the bedrock structure complicate the hydrological regime due to continuous opening and closing of the fissures, creating temporary preferential flow paths systems for infiltration and groundwater drainage. The consecutive opening and closing of fissure aperture control the formation of a critical pore water pressure by creating dynamic preferential flow paths for infiltration and groundwater drainage. This interaction may explain the seasonal nature of the slow-moving landslide activity, including the often observed shifts and delays in hydrological responses when compared to timing, intensity and duration of precipitation. The main objective of this study is to model the influence of fissures on the hydrological dynamics of slow-moving landslide and the dynamic feedbacks between fissures, hydrology and slope stability. For this we adapt the spatially distributed hydrological and slope stability model (STARWARS to account for geotechnical and hydrological feedbacks, linking between hydrological response of the landside and the dynamics of the fissure network and applied the model to the hydrologically controlled Super-Sauze landslide (South French Alps.

“Black Swans” of Hydrology: Can our Models Address the Science of Hydrologic Change?

Science.gov (United States)

Kumar, P.

2009-12-01

Coupled models of terrestrial hydrology and climate have grown in complexity leading to better understanding of the coupling between the hydrosphere, biosphere, and the climate system. During the past two decades, these models have evolved through generational changes as they have grown in sophistication in their ability to resolve spatial heterogeneity as well as vegetation dynamics and biogeochemistry. These developments have, in part, been driven by data collection efforts ranging from focused field campaigns to long-term observational networks, advances in remote sensing and other measurement technologies, along with sophisticated estimation and assimilation methods. However, the hydrologic cycle is changing leading to unexpected and unanticipated behavior through emergent dynamics and patterns that are not part of the historical milieu. Is there a new thinking that is needed to address this challenge? The goal of this talk is to draw from the modeling developments in the past two decades to foster a debate for moving forward.

Hydrological Process Simulation of Inland River Watershed: A Case Study of the Heihe River Basin with Multiple Hydrological Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lili Wang

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Simulating the hydrological processes of an inland river basin can help provide the scientific guidance to the policies of water allocation among different subbasins and water resource management groups within the subbasins. However, it is difficult to simulate the hydrological processes of an inland river basin with hydrological models due to the non-consistent hydrological characteristics of the entire basin. This study presents a solution to this problem with a case study about the hydrological process simulation in an inland river basin in China, Heihe River basin. It is divided into the upper, middle, and lower reaches based on the distinctive hydrological characteristics in the Heihe River basin, and three hydrological models are selected, applied, and tested to simulate the hydrological cycling processes for each reach. The upper reach is the contributing area with the complex runoff generation processes, therefore, the hydrological informatic modeling system (HIMS is utilized due to its combined runoff generation mechanisms. The middle reach has strong impacts of intensive human activities on the interactions of surface and subsurface flows, so a conceptual water balance model is applied to simulate the water balance process. For the lower reach, as the dissipative area with groundwater dominating the hydrological process, a groundwater modeling system with the embedment of MODFLOW model is applied to simulate the groundwater dynamics. Statistical parameters and water balance analysis prove that the three models have excellent performances in simulating the hydrological process of the three reaches. Therefore, it is an effective way to simulate the hydrological process of inland river basin with multiple hydrological models according to the characteristics of each subbasin.

Modeling Feedbacks Between Individual Human Decisions and Hydrology Using Interconnected Physical and Social Models

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Murphy, J.; Lammers, R. B.; Proussevitch, A. A.; Ozik, J.; Altaweel, M.; Collier, N. T.; Alessa, L.; Kliskey, A. D.

2014-12-01

The global hydrological cycle intersects with human decision making at multiple scales, from dams and irrigation works to the taps in individuals' homes. Residential water consumers are commonly encouraged to conserve; these messages are heard against a background of individual values and conceptions about water quality, uses, and availability. The degree to which these values impact the larger-hydrological dynamics, the way that changes in those values have impacts on the hydrological cycle through time, and the feedbacks by which water availability and quality in turn shape those values, are not well explored. To investigate this domain we employ a global-scale water balance model (WBM) coupled with a social-science-grounded agent-based model (ABM). The integration of a hydrological model with an agent-based model allows us to explore driving factors in the dynamics in coupled human-natural systems. From the perspective of the physical hydrologist, the ABM offers a richer means of incorporating the human decisions that drive the hydrological system; from the view of the social scientist, a physically-based hydrological model allows the decisions of the agents to play out against constraints faithful to the real world. We apply the interconnected models to a study of Tucson, Arizona, USA, and its role in the larger Colorado River system. Our core concept is Technology-Induced Environmental Distancing (TIED), which posits that layers of technology can insulate consumers from direct knowledge of a resource. In Tucson, multiple infrastructure and institutional layers have arguably increased the conceptual distance between individuals and their water supply, offering a test case of the TIED framework. Our coupled simulation allows us to show how the larger system transforms a resource with high temporal and spatial variability into a consumer constant, and the effects of this transformation on the regional system. We use this to explore how pricing, messaging, and

Coupled Crop/Hydrology Model to Estimate Expanded Irrigation Impact on Water Resources

Science.gov (United States)

Handyside, C. T.; Cruise, J.

2017-12-01

A coupled agricultural and hydrologic systems model is used to examine the environmental impact of irrigation in the Southeast. A gridded crop model for the Southeast is used to determine regional irrigation demand. This irrigation demand is used in a regional hydrologic model to determine the hydrologic impact of irrigation. For the Southeast to maintain/expand irrigated agricultural production and provide adaptation to climate change and climate variability it will require integrated agricultural and hydrologic system models that can calculate irrigation demand and the impact of the this demand on the river hydrology. These integrated models can be used as (1) historical tools to examine vulnerability of expanded irrigation to past climate extremes (2) future tools to examine the sustainability of expanded irrigation under future climate scenarios and (3) a real-time tool to allow dynamic water resource management. Such tools are necessary to assure stakeholders and the public that irrigation can be carried out in a sustainable manner. The system tools to be discussed include a gridded version of the crop modeling system (DSSAT). The gridded model is referred to as GriDSSAT. The irrigation demand from GriDSSAT is coupled to a regional hydrologic model developed by the Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center of the USDA Forest Service) (WaSSI). The crop model provides the dynamic irrigation demand which is a function of the weather. The hydrologic model includes all other competing uses of water. Examples of use the crop model coupled with the hydrologic model include historical analyses which show the change in hydrology as additional acres of irrigated land are added to water sheds. The first order change in hydrology is computed in terms of changes in the Water Availability Stress Index (WASSI) which is the ratio of water demand (irrigation, public water supply, industrial use, etc.) and water availability from the hydrologic model. Also

Representing Northern Peatland Hydrology and Biogeochemistry with ALM Land Surface Model

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, X.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Thornton, P. E.; Hanson, P. J.; Xu, X.; Mao, J.; Warren, J.; Yuan, F.; Norby, R. J.; Sebestyen, S.; Griffiths, N.; Weston, D. J.; Walker, A.

2017-12-01

Northern peatlands are likely to be important in future carbon cycle-climate feedbacks due to their large carbon pool and vulnerability to hydrological change. Predictive understanding of northern peatland hydrology is a necessary precursor to understanding the fate of massive carbon stores in these systems under the influence of present and future climate change. Current models have begun to address microtopographic controls on peatland hydrology, but none have included a prognostic calculation of peatland water table depth for a vegetated wetland, independent of prescribed regional water tables. Firstly, we introduce a new configuration of the land model (ALM) of Accelerated Climate model for Energy (ACME), which includes a fully prognostic water table calculation for a vegetated peatland. Secondly, we couple our new hydrology treatment with vertically structured soil organic matter pool, and the addition of components from methane biogeochemistry. Thirdly, we introduce a new PFT for mosses and implement the water content dynamics and physiology of mosses. We inform and test our model based on SPRUCE experiment to get the reasonable results for the seasonal dynamics water table depths, water content dynamics and physiology of mosses, and correct soil carbon profiles. Then, we use our new model structure to test the how the water table depth and CH4 emission will respond to elevated CO2 and different warming scenarios.

From spatially variable streamflow to distributed hydrological models: Analysis of key modeling decisions

Science.gov (United States)

Fenicia, Fabrizio; Kavetski, Dmitri; Savenije, Hubert H. G.; Pfister, Laurent

2016-02-01

This paper explores the development and application of distributed hydrological models, focusing on the key decisions of how to discretize the landscape, which model structures to use in each landscape element, and how to link model parameters across multiple landscape elements. The case study considers the Attert catchment in Luxembourg—a 300 km2 mesoscale catchment with 10 nested subcatchments that exhibit clearly different streamflow dynamics. The research questions are investigated using conceptual models applied at hydrologic response unit (HRU) scales (1-4 HRUs) on 6 hourly time steps. Multiple model structures are hypothesized and implemented using the SUPERFLEX framework. Following calibration, space/time model transferability is tested using a split-sample approach, with evaluation criteria including streamflow prediction error metrics and hydrological signatures. Our results suggest that: (1) models using geology-based HRUs are more robust and capture the spatial variability of streamflow time series and signatures better than models using topography-based HRUs; this finding supports the hypothesis that, in the Attert, geology exerts a stronger control than topography on streamflow generation, (2) streamflow dynamics of different HRUs can be represented using distinct and remarkably simple model structures, which can be interpreted in terms of the perceived dominant hydrologic processes in each geology type, and (3) the same maximum root zone storage can be used across the three dominant geological units with no loss in model transferability; this finding suggests that the partitioning of water between streamflow and evaporation in the study area is largely independent of geology and can be used to improve model parsimony. The modeling methodology introduced in this study is general and can be used to advance our broader understanding and prediction of hydrological behavior, including the landscape characteristics that control hydrologic response, the

Hydrology in a mediterranean mountain environment. The Vallcebre research catchment (north eastern Spain) I. 20 years of investigations of hydrological dynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Latron, J.; Llorens, P.; Solar, M.; Poyatos, R.; Rubio, C.; Muzylo, A.; Martinez-Carreras, N.; Delgado, J.; Regues, D.; Catari, G.; Nord, G.; Gallart, F.

2009-01-01

Investigations started 20 years ago in the Vallcebre research basins with the objectives of better understanding the hydrological functioning of Mediterranean mountains basins. The Vallcebre basins (0.15-4.17 km 2 ) are located in a Mediterranean mountain area of the Pyrenean ranges (1300 m.a.s.l., North Eastern Spain) Average annual precipitations 862± 260 mm and potential evapotranspiration is 823±26mm. Climate is highly seasonal leading to periods with water deficit in summer, and eventually in winter. Hydrological investigations to periods with water deficit in summer, and eventually in winter. Hydrological investigations in the basins are related to rainfall interception, evapotranspiration, soil moisture spatio-temporal dynamics, runoff response and runoff processes, suspended sediment dynamics and model application both at the plot and basin scales. (Author) 15 refs.

Dynamical nexus of water supply, hydropower and environment based on the modeling of multiple socio-natural processes: from socio-hydrological perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, D.; Wei, X.; Li, H. Y.; Lin, M.; Tian, F.; Huang, Q.

2017-12-01

In the socio-hydrological system, the ecological functions and environmental services, which are chosen to maintain, are determined by the preference of the society, which is making the trade-off among the values of riparian vegetation, fish, river landscape, water supply, hydropower, navigation and so on. As the society develops, the preference of the value will change and the ecological functions and environmental services which are chosen to maintain will change. The aim of the study is to focus on revealing the feedback relationship of water supply, hydropower and environment and the dynamical feedback mechanism at macro-scale, and to establish socio-hydrological evolution model of the watershed based on the modeling of multiple socio-natural processes. The study will aim at the Han River in China, analyze the impact of the water supply and hydropower on the ecology, hydrology and other environment elements, and study the effect on the water supply and hydropower to ensure the ecological and environmental water of the different level. Water supply and ecology are usually competitive. In some reservoirs, hydropower and ecology are synergic relationship while they are competitive in some reservoirs. The study will analyze the multiple mechanisms to implement the dynamical feedbacks of environment to hydropower, set up the quantitative relationship description of the feedback mechanisms, recognize the dominant processes in the feedback relationships of hydropower and environment and then analyze the positive and negative feedbacks in the feedback networks. The socio-hydrological evolution model at the watershed scale will be built and applied to simulate the long-term evolution processes of the watershed of the current situation. Dynamical nexus of water supply, hydropower and environment will be investigated.

Hydrological models are mediating models

Science.gov (United States)

Babel, L. V.; Karssenberg, D.

2013-08-01

Despite the increasing role of models in hydrological research and decision-making processes, only few accounts of the nature and function of models exist in hydrology. Earlier considerations have traditionally been conducted while making a clear distinction between physically-based and conceptual models. A new philosophical account, primarily based on the fields of physics and economics, transcends classes of models and scientific disciplines by considering models as "mediators" between theory and observations. The core of this approach lies in identifying models as (1) being only partially dependent on theory and observations, (2) integrating non-deductive elements in their construction, and (3) carrying the role of instruments of scientific enquiry about both theory and the world. The applicability of this approach to hydrology is evaluated in the present article. Three widely used hydrological models, each showing a different degree of apparent physicality, are confronted to the main characteristics of the "mediating models" concept. We argue that irrespective of their kind, hydrological models depend on both theory and observations, rather than merely on one of these two domains. Their construction is additionally involving a large number of miscellaneous, external ingredients, such as past experiences, model objectives, knowledge and preferences of the modeller, as well as hardware and software resources. We show that hydrological models convey the role of instruments in scientific practice by mediating between theory and the world. It results from these considerations that the traditional distinction between physically-based and conceptual models is necessarily too simplistic and refers at best to the stage at which theory and observations are steering model construction. The large variety of ingredients involved in model construction would deserve closer attention, for being rarely explicitly presented in peer-reviewed literature. We believe that devoting

Temperature as a tracer of hydrological dynamics in an anchialine cave system with a submarine spring

Science.gov (United States)

Domínguez-Villar, David; Cukrov, Neven; Krklec, Kristina

2018-01-01

Although temperature is a nonconservative tracer, it often provides useful information to understand hydrological processes. This study explores the potential of temperature to characterize the hydrological dynamics of a submarine spring and its coastal karst aquifer in Krka Estuary (Croatia). The estuary is well stratified and its water column has a clear thermocline. A network of loggers was designed to monitor the temperature along vertical profiles in the estuary and the coastal aquifer, taking advantage of an anchialine cave that enabled access to the subterranean estuary. The location of the thermocline in the groundwater, which defines the upper boundary of the saline intrusion, depends on (1) the recharge of the aquifer via infiltration of precipitation, (2) the evolution of the thermocline in the estuary, and (3) the tidal oscillations. The sources of water flowing though the anchialine cave were identified: brackish water from the estuary above the thermocline, saline water from the estuary below the thermocline, and freshwater from infiltrated precipitation. A conceptual model is described that characterizes the hydrological dynamics of this coastal aquifer and its interactions with the estuary. Thus, at least for some hydrological settings, temperature is a valid tracer to characterize the main hydrological processes. The measurement of temperature is inexpensive compared to other (conservative) tracers. Therefore, for those hydrological settings that have water masses with distinct temperatures, the use of temperature as a tracer to establish conceptual models of the hydrological dynamics is encouraged.

Virtual hydrology observatory: an immersive visualization of hydrology modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Su, Simon; Cruz-Neira, Carolina; Habib, Emad; Gerndt, Andreas

2009-02-01

The Virtual Hydrology Observatory will provide students with the ability to observe the integrated hydrology simulation with an instructional interface by using a desktop based or immersive virtual reality setup. It is the goal of the virtual hydrology observatory application to facilitate the introduction of field experience and observational skills into hydrology courses through innovative virtual techniques that mimic activities during actual field visits. The simulation part of the application is developed from the integrated atmospheric forecast model: Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), and the hydrology model: Gridded Surface/Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA). Both the output from WRF and GSSHA models are then used to generate the final visualization components of the Virtual Hydrology Observatory. The various visualization data processing techniques provided by VTK are 2D Delaunay triangulation and data optimization. Once all the visualization components are generated, they are integrated into the simulation data using VRFlowVis and VR Juggler software toolkit. VR Juggler is used primarily to provide the Virtual Hydrology Observatory application with fully immersive and real time 3D interaction experience; while VRFlowVis provides the integration framework for the hydrologic simulation data, graphical objects and user interaction. A six-sided CAVETM like system is used to run the Virtual Hydrology Observatory to provide the students with a fully immersive experience.

Open source data assimilation framework for hydrological modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Ridler, Marc; Hummel, Stef; van Velzen, Nils; Katrine Falk, Anne; Madsen, Henrik

2013-04-01

processes from a different domain or have different spatial and temporal resolutions. An open source framework that bridges OpenMI and OpenDA is presented. The framework provides a generic and easy means for any OpenMI compliant model to assimilate observation measurements. An example test case will be presented using MikeSHE, and OpenMI compliant fully coupled integrated hydrological model that can accurately simulate the feedback dynamics of overland flow, unsaturated zone and saturated zone.

An ensemble-based dynamic Bayesian averaging approach for discharge simulations using multiple global precipitation products and hydrological models

Science.gov (United States)

Qi, Wei; Liu, Junguo; Yang, Hong; Sweetapple, Chris

2018-03-01

Global precipitation products are very important datasets in flow simulations, especially in poorly gauged regions. Uncertainties resulting from precipitation products, hydrological models and their combinations vary with time and data magnitude, and undermine their application to flow simulations. However, previous studies have not quantified these uncertainties individually and explicitly. This study developed an ensemble-based dynamic Bayesian averaging approach (e-Bay) for deterministic discharge simulations using multiple global precipitation products and hydrological models. In this approach, the joint probability of precipitation products and hydrological models being correct is quantified based on uncertainties in maximum and mean estimation, posterior probability is quantified as functions of the magnitude and timing of discharges, and the law of total probability is implemented to calculate expected discharges. Six global fine-resolution precipitation products and two hydrological models of different complexities are included in an illustrative application. e-Bay can effectively quantify uncertainties and therefore generate better deterministic discharges than traditional approaches (weighted average methods with equal and varying weights and maximum likelihood approach). The mean Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency values of e-Bay are up to 0.97 and 0.85 in training and validation periods respectively, which are at least 0.06 and 0.13 higher than traditional approaches. In addition, with increased training data, assessment criteria values of e-Bay show smaller fluctuations than traditional approaches and its performance becomes outstanding. The proposed e-Bay approach bridges the gap between global precipitation products and their pragmatic applications to discharge simulations, and is beneficial to water resources management in ungauged or poorly gauged regions across the world.

Hydrological response to dynamical downscaling of climate model outputs: A case study for western and eastern snowmelt-dominated Canada catchments

OpenAIRE

Magali Troin; Daniel Caya; Juan Alberto Velázquez; François Brissette

2015-01-01

Study region: An analysis of hydrological response to a dynamically downscaled multi-member multi-model global climate model (GCM) ensemble of simulations based on the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) is presented for three snowmelt-dominated basins in Canada. The basins are situated in the western mountainous (British Columbia) and eastern level (Quebec) regions in Canada, providing comprehensive experiments to validate the CRCM over various topographic features. Study focus: The ev...

Water Cycle Dynamics in a Changing Environment: Advancing Hydrologic Science through Synthesis

Science.gov (United States)

Sivapalan, M.; Kumar, P.; Rhoads, B. L.; Wuebbles, D.

2007-12-01

As one ponders a changing environment -- climate, hydrology, land use, biogeochemical cycles, human dynamics -- there is an increasing need to understand the long term evolution of the linked component systems (e.g., climatic, hydrologic and ecological) through conceptual and quantitative models. The most challenging problem toward this goal is to understand and incorporate the rich dynamics of multiple linked systems with weak and strong coupling, and with many internal variables that exhibit multi-scale interactions. The richness of these interactions leads to fluctuations in one variable that in turn drive the dynamics of other related variables. The key question then becomes: Do these complexities lend an inherently stochastic character to the system, rendering deterministic prediction and modeling of limited value, or do they translate into constrained self- organization through which emerges order, and a limited group of "active" processes (that may change from time to time) that determine the general evolution of the system through a series of structured states with a distinct signature? This is a grand challenge for predictability and therefore requires community effort. The interconnectivity and hence synthesis of knowledge across the fields should be natural for hydrologists since the global water cycle and its regional manifestations directly correspond to the information flows for mass and energy transformations across the media, and across the disciplines. Further, the rich history of numerical, conceptual and stochastic modeling in hydrology provides the training and breadth for addressing the multi- scale, complex system dynamics challenges posed by the evolution question. Theory and observational analyses that necessitate stepping back from the existing knowledge paradigms and looking at the integrated system are needed. In this talk we will present the outlines of a new NSF-funded community effort that attempts to forge inter- disciplinary

Assessing the Added Value of Dynamical Downscaling in the Context of Hydrologic Implication

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, M.; IM, E. S.; Lee, M. H.

2017-12-01

There is a scientific consensus that high-resolution climate simulations downscaled by Regional Climate Models (RCMs) can provide valuable refined information over the target region. However, a significant body of hydrologic impact assessment has been performing using the climate information provided by Global Climate Models (GCMs) in spite of a fundamental spatial scale gap. It is probably based on the assumption that the substantial biases and spatial scale gap from GCMs raw data can be simply removed by applying the statistical bias correction and spatial disaggregation. Indeed, many previous studies argue that the benefit of dynamical downscaling using RCMs is minimal when linking climate data with the hydrological model, from the comparison of the impact between bias-corrected GCMs and bias-corrected RCMs on hydrologic simulations. It may be true for long-term averaged climatological pattern, but it is not necessarily the case when looking into variability across various temporal spectrum. In this study, we investigate the added value of dynamical downscaling focusing on the performance in capturing climate variability. For doing this, we evaluate the performance of the distributed hydrological model over the Korean river basin using the raw output from GCM and RCM, and bias-corrected output from GCM and RCM. The impacts of climate input data on streamflow simulation are comprehensively analyzed. [Acknowledgements]This research is supported by the Korea Agency for Infrastructure Technology Advancement (KAIA) grant funded by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (Grant 17AWMP-B083066-04).

Urban Hydrology and Water Quality Modeling - Resolution Modeling Comparison for Water Quantity and Quality

Science.gov (United States)

Fry, T. J.; Maxwell, R. M.

2014-12-01

Urbanization presents challenging water resource problems for communities worldwide. The hydromodifications associated with urbanization results in increased runoff rates and volumes and increased peak flows. These hydrologic changes can lead to increased erosion and stream destabilization, decreased evapotranspiration, decreased ground water recharge, increases in pollutant loading, and localized anthropogenic climate change or Urban Heat Islands. Stormwater represents a complex and dynamic component of the urban water cycle that requires careful mitigation. With the implementation of Phase II rules under the CWA, stormwater management is shifting from a drainage-efficiency focus to a natural systems focus. The natural system focus, referred to as Low Impact Development (LID), or Green Infrastructure, uses best management practices (BMPs) to reduce the impacts caused by urbanization hydromodification. Large-scale patterns of stormwater runoff from urban environments are complex and it is unclear what the large-scale impacts of green infrastructure are on the water cycle. High resolution physically based hydrologic models can be used to more accurately simulate the urban hydrologic cycle. These types of models tend to be more dynamic and allow for greater flexibility in evaluating and accounting for various hydrologic processes in the urban environment that may be lost with lower resolution conceptual models. We propose to evaluate the effectiveness of high resolution models to accurately represent and determine the urban hydrologic cycle with the overall goal of being able to accurately assess the impacts of LID BMPs in urban environments. We propose to complete a rigorous model intercomparison between ParFlow and FLO-2D. Both of these models can be scaled to higher resolutions, allow for rainfall to be spatially and temporally input, and solve the shallow water equations. Each model is different in the way it accounts for infiltration, initial abstraction losses

Green roof hydrologic performance and modeling: a review.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Yanling; Babcock, Roger W

2014-01-01

Green roofs reduce runoff from impervious surfaces in urban development. This paper reviews the technical literature on green roof hydrology. Laboratory experiments and field measurements have shown that green roofs can reduce stormwater runoff volume by 30 to 86%, reduce peak flow rate by 22 to 93% and delay the peak flow by 0 to 30 min and thereby decrease pollution, flooding and erosion during precipitation events. However, the effectiveness can vary substantially due to design characteristics making performance predictions difficult. Evaluation of the most recently published study findings indicates that the major factors affecting green roof hydrology are precipitation volume, precipitation dynamics, antecedent conditions, growth medium, plant species, and roof slope. This paper also evaluates the computer models commonly used to simulate hydrologic processes for green roofs, including stormwater management model, soil water atmosphere and plant, SWMS-2D, HYDRUS, and other models that are shown to be effective for predicting precipitation response and economic benefits. The review findings indicate that green roofs are effective for reduction of runoff volume and peak flow, and delay of peak flow, however, no tool or model is available to predict expected performance for any given anticipated system based on design parameters that directly affect green roof hydrology.

On the effects of adaptive reservoir operating rules in hydrological physically-based models

Science.gov (United States)

Giudici, Federico; Anghileri, Daniela; Castelletti, Andrea; Burlando, Paolo

2017-04-01

Recent years have seen a significant increase of the human influence on the natural systems both at the global and local scale. Accurately modeling the human component and its interaction with the natural environment is key to characterize the real system dynamics and anticipate future potential changes to the hydrological regimes. Modern distributed, physically-based hydrological models are able to describe hydrological processes with high level of detail and high spatiotemporal resolution. Yet, they lack in sophistication for the behavior component and human decisions are usually described by very simplistic rules, which might underperform in reproducing the catchment dynamics. In the case of water reservoir operators, these simplistic rules usually consist of target-level rule curves, which represent the average historical level trajectory. Whilst these rules can reasonably reproduce the average seasonal water volume shifts due to the reservoirs' operation, they cannot properly represent peculiar conditions, which influence the actual reservoirs' operation, e.g., variations in energy price or water demand, dry or wet meteorological conditions. Moreover, target-level rule curves are not suitable to explore the water system response to climate and socio economic changing contexts, because they assume a business-as-usual operation. In this work, we quantitatively assess how the inclusion of adaptive reservoirs' operating rules into physically-based hydrological models contribute to the proper representation of the hydrological regime at the catchment scale. In particular, we contrast target-level rule curves and detailed optimization-based behavioral models. We, first, perform the comparison on past observational records, showing that target-level rule curves underperform in representing the hydrological regime over multiple time scales (e.g., weekly, seasonal, inter-annual). Then, we compare how future hydrological changes are affected by the two modeling

Integrated climate and hydrology modelling - Coupling of the HIRHAM regional climate model and the MIKE SHE hydrological model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dahl Larsen, M.A. [Technical Univ. of Denmark. DTU Management Engineering, DTU Risoe Campus, Roskilde (Denmark)

2013-10-15

To ensure optimal management and sustainable strategies for water resources, infrastructures, food production and ecosystems there is a need for an improved understanding of feedback and interaction mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface. This is especially true in light of expected global warming and increased frequency of extreme events. The skill in developing projections of both the present and future climate depends essentially on the ability to numerically simulate the processes of atmospheric circulation, hydrology, energy and ecology. Previous modelling efforts of climate and hydrology have used each model component in an offline mode where the models are run in sequential steps and one model serves as a boundary condition or data input source to the other. Within recent years a new field of research has emerged where efforts have been made to dynamically couple existing climate and hydrology models to more directly include the interaction between the atmosphere and the land surface. The present PhD study is motivated by an ambition of developing and applying a modelling tool capable of including the interaction and feedback mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface. The modelling tool consists of a fully dynamic two-way coupling of the HIRHAM regional climate model and the MIKE SHE hydrological model. The expected gain is twofold. Firstly, HIRHAM utilizes the land surface component of the combined MIKE SHE/SWET hydrology and land surface model (LSM), which is superior to the LSM in HIRHAM. A wider range of processes are included at the land surface, subsurface flow is distributed in three dimensions and the temporal and spatial resolution is higher. Secondly, the feedback mechanisms of e.g. soil moisture and precipitation between the two models are included. The preparation of the HIRHAM and MIKE SHE models for the coupled study revealed several findings. The performance of HIRHAM was highly affected by the domain size, domain

Findings and Challenges in Fine-Resolution Large-Scale Hydrological Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Her, Y. G.

2017-12-01

Fine-resolution large-scale (FL) modeling can provide the overall picture of the hydrological cycle and transport while taking into account unique local conditions in the simulation. It can also help develop water resources management plans consistent across spatial scales by describing the spatial consequences of decisions and hydrological events extensively. FL modeling is expected to be common in the near future as global-scale remotely sensed data are emerging, and computing resources have been advanced rapidly. There are several spatially distributed models available for hydrological analyses. Some of them rely on numerical methods such as finite difference/element methods (FDM/FEM), which require excessive computing resources (implicit scheme) to manipulate large matrices or small simulation time intervals (explicit scheme) to maintain the stability of the solution, to describe two-dimensional overland processes. Others make unrealistic assumptions such as constant overland flow velocity to reduce the computational loads of the simulation. Thus, simulation efficiency often comes at the expense of precision and reliability in FL modeling. Here, we introduce a new FL continuous hydrological model and its application to four watersheds in different landscapes and sizes from 3.5 km2 to 2,800 km2 at the spatial resolution of 30 m on an hourly basis. The model provided acceptable accuracy statistics in reproducing hydrological observations made in the watersheds. The modeling outputs including the maps of simulated travel time, runoff depth, soil water content, and groundwater recharge, were animated, visualizing the dynamics of hydrological processes occurring in the watersheds during and between storm events. Findings and challenges were discussed in the context of modeling efficiency, accuracy, and reproducibility, which we found can be improved by employing advanced computing techniques and hydrological understandings, by using remotely sensed hydrological

Hydrologic modeling and field testing at Yucca mountain, Nevada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoxie, D.T.

1991-01-01

Yucca Mountain, Nevada, is being evaluated as a possible site for a mined geologic repository for the disposal of high-level nuclear waste. The repository is proposed to be constructed in fractured, densely welded tuff within the thick (500 to 750 meters) unsaturated zone at the site. Characterization of the site unsaturated-zone hydrogeologic system requires quantitative specification of the existing state of the system and the development of numerical hydrologic models to predict probable evolution of the hydrogeologic system over the lifetime of the repository. To support development of hydrologic models for the system, a testing program has been designed to characterize the existing state of the system, to measure hydrologic properties for the system and to identify and quantify those processes that control system dynamics. 12 refs

Hydrological Modelling the Middle Magdalena Valley (Colombia)

Science.gov (United States)

Arenas, M. C.; Duque, N.; Arboleda, P.; Guadagnini, A.; Riva, M.; Donado-Garzon, L. D.

2017-12-01

Hydrological distributed modeling is key point for a comprehensive assessment of the feedback between the dynamics of the hydrological cycle, climate conditions and land use. Such modeling results are markedly relevant in the fields of water resources management, natural hazards and oil and gas industry. Here, we employ TopModel (TOPography based hydrological MODEL) for the hydrological modeling of an area in the Middle Magdalena Valley (MMV), a tropical basin located in Colombia. This study is located over the intertropical convergence zone and is characterized by special meteorological conditions, with fast water fluxes over the year. It has been subject to significant land use changes, as a result of intense economical activities, i.e., and agriculture, energy and oil & gas production. The model employees a record of 12 years of daily precipitation and evapotranspiration data as inputs. Streamflow data monitored across the same time frame are used for model calibration. The latter is performed by considering data from 2000 to 2008. Model validation then relies on observations from 2009 to 2012. The robustness of our analyses is based on the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (values of this metric being 0.62 and 0.53, respectively for model calibration and validation). Our results reveal high water storage capacity in the soil, and a marked subsurface runoff, consistent with the characteristics of the soil types in the regions. A significant influence on runoff response of the basin to topographical factors represented in the model is evidenced. Our calibrated model provides relevant indications about recharge in the region, which is important to quantify the interaction between surface water and groundwater, specially during the dry season, which is more relevant in climate-change and climate-variability scenarios.

airGRteaching: an R-package designed for teaching hydrology with lumped hydrological models

Science.gov (United States)

Thirel, Guillaume; Delaigue, Olivier; Coron, Laurent; Andréassian, Vazken; Brigode, Pierre

2017-04-01

Lumped hydrological models are useful and convenient tools for research, engineering and educational purposes. They propose catchment-scale representations of the precipitation-discharge relationship. Thanks to their limited data requirements, they can be easily implemented and run. With such models, it is possible to simulate a number of hydrological key processes over the catchment with limited structural and parametric complexity, typically evapotranspiration, runoff, underground losses, etc. The Hydrology Group at Irstea (Antony) has been developing a suite of rainfall-runoff models over the past 30 years. This resulted in a suite of models running at different time steps (from hourly to annual) applicable for various issues including water balance estimation, forecasting, simulation of impacts and scenario testing. Recently, Irstea has developed an easy-to-use R-package (R Core Team, 2016), called airGR (Coron et al., 2016, 2017), to make these models widely available. Although its initial target public was hydrological modellers, the package is already used for educational purposes. Indeed, simple models allow for rapidly visualising the effects of parameterizations and model components on flows hydrographs. In order to avoid the difficulties that students may have when manipulating R and datasets, we developed (Delaigue and Coron, 2016): - Three simplified functions to prepare data, calibrate a model and run a simulation - Simplified and dynamic plot functions - A shiny (Chang et al., 2016) interface that connects this R-package to a browser-based visualisation tool. On this interface, the students can use different hydrological models (including the possibility to use a snow-accounting model), manually modify their parameters and automatically calibrate their parameters with diverse objective functions. One of the visualisation tabs of the interface includes observed precipitation and temperature, simulated snowpack (if any), observed and simulated

Scale effect challenges in urban hydrology highlighted with a distributed hydrological model

Science.gov (United States)

Ichiba, Abdellah; Gires, Auguste; Tchiguirinskaia, Ioulia; Schertzer, Daniel; Bompard, Philippe; Ten Veldhuis, Marie-Claire

2018-01-01

Hydrological models are extensively used in urban water management, development and evaluation of future scenarios and research activities. There is a growing interest in the development of fully distributed and grid-based models. However, some complex questions related to scale effects are not yet fully understood and still remain open issues in urban hydrology. In this paper we propose a two-step investigation framework to illustrate the extent of scale effects in urban hydrology. First, fractal tools are used to highlight the scale dependence observed within distributed data input into urban hydrological models. Then an intensive multi-scale modelling work is carried out to understand scale effects on hydrological model performance. Investigations are conducted using a fully distributed and physically based model, Multi-Hydro, developed at Ecole des Ponts ParisTech. The model is implemented at 17 spatial resolutions ranging from 100 to 5 m. Results clearly exhibit scale effect challenges in urban hydrology modelling. The applicability of fractal concepts highlights the scale dependence observed within distributed data. Patterns of geophysical data change when the size of the observation pixel changes. The multi-scale modelling investigation confirms scale effects on hydrological model performance. Results are analysed over three ranges of scales identified in the fractal analysis and confirmed through modelling. This work also discusses some remaining issues in urban hydrology modelling related to the availability of high-quality data at high resolutions, and model numerical instabilities as well as the computation time requirements. The main findings of this paper enable a replacement of traditional methods of model calibration by innovative methods of model resolution alteration based on the spatial data variability and scaling of flows in urban hydrology.

Including policy and management in socio-hydrology models: initial conceptualizations

Science.gov (United States)

Hermans, Leon; Korbee, Dorien

2017-04-01

Socio-hydrology studies the interactions in coupled human-water systems. So far, the use of dynamic models that capture the direct feedback between societal and hydrological systems has been dominant. What has not yet been included with any particular emphasis, is the policy or management layer, which is a central element in for instance integrated water resources management (IWRM) or adaptive delta management (ADM). Studying the direct interactions between human-water systems generates knowledges that eventually helps influence these interactions in ways that may ensure better outcomes - for society and for the health and sustainability of water systems. This influence sometimes occurs through spontaneous emergence, uncoordinated by societal agents - private sector, citizens, consumers, water users. However, the term 'management' in IWRM and ADM also implies an additional coordinated attempt through various public actors. This contribution is a call to include the policy and management dimension more prominently into the research focus of the socio-hydrology field, and offers first conceptual variables that should be considered in attempts to include this policy or management layer in socio-hydrology models. This is done by drawing on existing frameworks to study policy processes throughout both planning and implementation phases. These include frameworks such as the advocacy coalition framework, collective learning and policy arrangements, which all emphasis longer-term dynamics and feedbacks between actor coalitions in strategic planning and implementation processes. A case about longter-term dynamics in the management of the Haringvliet in the Netherlands is used to illustrate the paper.

Copula Entropy coupled with Wavelet Neural Network Model for Hydrological Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Yin; Yue, JiGuang; Liu, ShuGuang; Wang, Li

2018-02-01

Artificial Neural network(ANN) has been widely used in hydrological forecasting. in this paper an attempt has been made to find an alternative method for hydrological prediction by combining Copula Entropy(CE) with Wavelet Neural Network(WNN), CE theory permits to calculate mutual information(MI) to select Input variables which avoids the limitations of the traditional linear correlation(LCC) analysis. Wavelet analysis can provide the exact locality of any changes in the dynamical patterns of the sequence Coupled with ANN Strong non-linear fitting ability. WNN model was able to provide a good fit with the hydrological data. finally, the hybrid model(CE+WNN) have been applied to daily water level of Taihu Lake Basin, and compared with CE ANN, LCC WNN and LCC ANN. Results showed that the hybrid model produced better results in estimating the hydrograph properties than the latter models.

Hydrologic and Water Quality Model Development Using Simulink

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

James D. Bowen

2014-11-01

Full Text Available A stormwater runoff model based on the Soil Conservation Service (SCS method and a finite-volume based water quality model have been developed to investigate the use of Simulink for use in teaching and research. Simulink, a MATLAB extension, is a graphically based model development environment for system modeling and simulation. Widely used for mechanical and electrical systems, Simulink has had less use for modeling of hydrologic systems. The watershed model is being considered for use in teaching graduate-level courses in hydrology and/or stormwater modeling. Simulink’s block (data process and arrow (data transfer object model, the copy and paste user interface, the large number of existing blocks, and the absence of computer code allows students to become model developers almost immediately. The visual depiction of systems, their component subsystems, and the flow of data through the systems are ideal attributes for hands-on teaching of hydrologic and mass balance processes to today’s computer-savvy visual learners. Model development with Simulink for research purposes is also investigated. A finite volume, multi-layer pond model using the water quality kinetics present in CE-QUAL-W2 has been developed using Simulink. The model is one of the first uses of Simulink for modeling eutrophication dynamics in stratified natural systems. The model structure and a test case are presented. One use of the model for teaching a graduate-level water quality modeling class is also described.

Integrated hydrological modelling of the North China Plain

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Shu, Yunqiao; Villholth, Karen G.; Jensen, Karsten Høgh

2012-01-01

The integrated hydrological model MIKE SHE was applied to a part of the North China Plain to examine the dynamics of the hydrological system and to assess water management options to restore depleted groundwater resources. The model simulates the spatio-temporal distribution of recharge...... for scenario analysis of the effect of different cropping rotations, irrigation intensity, and other water management options, like the implementation of the South to North Water Transfer (SNWT) project. The model analysis verified that groundwater tables in the region are subject to steep declines (up to 1 m....../yr) due to decades of intensive exploitation of the groundwater resources for crop irrigation, primarily the widespread crop rotation of irrigated winter wheat and mostly rainfed summer maize. The SNWT project mitigates water stress in Shijiazhuang city and areas adjacent to wastewater canals but cannot...

A Smallholder Socio-hydrological Modelling Framework

Science.gov (United States)

Pande, S.; Savenije, H.; Rathore, P.

2014-12-01

Small holders are farmers who own less than 2 ha of farmland. They often have low productivity and thus remain at subsistence level. A fact that nearly 80% of Indian farmers are smallholders, who merely own a third of total farmlands and belong to the poorest quartile, but produce nearly 40% of countries foodgrains underlines the importance of understanding the socio-hydrology of a small holder. We present a framework to understand the socio-hydrological system dynamics of a small holder. It couples the dynamics of 6 main variables that are most relevant at the scale of a small holder: local storage (soil moisture and other water storage), capital, knowledge, livestock production, soil fertility and grass biomass production. The model incorporates rule-based adaptation mechanisms (for example: adjusting expenditures on food and fertilizers, selling livestocks etc.) of small holders when they face adverse socio-hydrological conditions, such as low annual rainfall, higher intra-annual variability in rainfall or variability in agricultural prices. It allows us to study sustainability of small holder farming systems under various settings. We apply the framework to understand the socio-hydrology of small holders in Aurangabad, Maharashtra, India. This district has witnessed suicides of many sugarcane farmers who could not extricate themselves out of the debt trap. These farmers lack irrigation and are susceptible to fluctuating sugar prices and intra-annual hydroclimatic variability. This presentation discusses two aspects in particular: whether government interventions to absolve the debt of farmers is enough and what is the value of investing in local storages that can buffer intra-annual variability in rainfall and strengthening the safety-nets either by creating opportunities for alternative sources of income or by crop diversification.

Phosphorus dynamics in lowland streams as a response to climatic, hydrological and agricultural land use gradients

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Goyenola, G.; Meerhoff, M.; Teixeira-de Mello, F.

2015-01-01

contrasting climate and hydrological regimes (temperate Denmark and subtropical Uruguay). We applied two alternative nutrient sampling programmes (high frequency composite sampling and low frequency instantaneous-grab sampling) and three alternative methods to estimate exported P from the catchments. A source...... apportionment model was applied to evaluate the contribution derived from point and diffuse sources in all four catchments studied. Climatic and hydrological characteristics of catchments expressed as flow responsiveness (flashiness), exerted control on catchment and stream TP dynamics, having consequences......Climate and hydrology are relevant control factors for determining the timing and amount of nutrient losses from agricultural fields to freshwaters. In this study, we evaluated the effect of agricultural intensification on the concentrations, dynamics and export of phosphorus (P) in streams in two...

Local control on precipitation in a fully coupled climate-hydrology model.

Science.gov (United States)

Larsen, Morten A D; Christensen, Jens H; Drews, Martin; Butts, Michael B; Refsgaard, Jens C

2016-03-10

The ability to simulate regional precipitation realistically by climate models is essential to understand and adapt to climate change. Due to the complexity of associated processes, particularly at unresolved temporal and spatial scales this continues to be a major challenge. As a result, climate simulations of precipitation often exhibit substantial biases that affect the reliability of future projections. Here we demonstrate how a regional climate model (RCM) coupled to a distributed hydrological catchment model that fully integrates water and energy fluxes between the subsurface, land surface, plant cover and the atmosphere, enables a realistic representation of local precipitation. Substantial improvements in simulated precipitation dynamics on seasonal and longer time scales is seen for a simulation period of six years and can be attributed to a more complete treatment of hydrological sub-surface processes including groundwater and moisture feedback. A high degree of local influence on the atmosphere suggests that coupled climate-hydrology models have a potential for improving climate projections and the results further indicate a diminished need for bias correction in climate-hydrology impact studies.

Uncertainty in hydrological change modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Seaby, Lauren Paige

applied at the grid scale. Flux and state hydrological outputs which integrate responses over time and space showed more sensitivity to precipitation mean spatial biases and less so on extremes. In the investigated catchments, the projected change of groundwater levels and basin discharge between current......Hydrological change modelling methodologies generally use climate models outputs to force hydrological simulations under changed conditions. There are nested sources of uncertainty throughout this methodology, including choice of climate model and subsequent bias correction methods. This Ph.......D. study evaluates the uncertainty of the impact of climate change in hydrological simulations given multiple climate models and bias correction methods of varying complexity. Three distribution based scaling methods (DBS) were developed and benchmarked against a more simplistic and commonly used delta...

Stochastic fusion of dynamic hydrological and geophysical data for estimating hydraulic conductivities: insights and observations (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Irving, J. D.; Singha, K.

2010-12-01

Traditionally, hydrological measurements have been used to estimate subsurface properties controlling groundwater flow and contaminant transport. However, such measurements are limited by their support volume and expense. A considerable benefit of geophysical measurements is that they provide a degree of spatial coverage and resolution that are unattainable with other methods, and the data can be acquired in a cost-effective manner. In particular, dynamic geophysical data allow us to indirectly observe changes in hydrological state variables as flow and transport processes occur, and can thus provide a link to hydrological properties when coupled with a process-based model. Stochastic fusion of these two data types offers the potential to provide not only estimates of subsurface hydrological properties, but also a quantification of their uncertainty. This information is critical when considering the end use of the data, which may be for groundwater remediation and management decision making. Here, we examine a number of key issues in the stochastic fusion of dynamic hydrogeophysical data. We focus our attention on the specific problem of integrating time-lapse crosshole electrical resistivity measurements and saline tracer-test concentration data in order to estimate the spatial distribution of hydraulic conductivity (K). To assimilate the geophysical and hydrological measurements in a stochastic manner, we use a Bayesian Markov-chain-Monte-Carlo (McMC) methodology. This provides multiple realizations of the subsurface K field that are consistent with the measured data and assumptions regarding model structure and data errors. To account for incomplete petrophysical knowledge, the geophysical and hydrological forward models are linked through an uncertain relationship between electrical resistivity and concentration following the general form of Archie’s law. To make the spatially distributed, fully stochastic inverse problem computationally tractable, we take

Combined effects of climate models, hydrological model structures and land use scenarios on hydrological impacts of climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Karlsson, Ida B.; Sonnenborg, Torben O.; Refsgaard, Jens Christian

2016-01-01

Impact studies of the hydrological response of future climate change are important for the water authorities when risk assessment, management and adaptation to a changing climate are carried out. The objective of this study was to model the combined effect of land use and climate changes...... use scenarios. The results revealed that even though the hydrological models all showed similar performance during calibration, the mean discharge response to climate change varied up to 30%, and the variations were even higher for extreme events (1th and 99th percentile). Land use changes appeared...... to cause little change in mean hydrological responses and little variation between hydrological models. Differences in hydrological model responses to land use were, however, significant for extremes due to dissimilarities in hydrological model structure and process equations. The climate model choice...

A balanced water layer concept for subglacial hydrology in large-scale ice sheet models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Goeller

2013-07-01

Full Text Available There is currently no doubt about the existence of a widespread hydrological network under the Antarctic Ice Sheet, which lubricates the ice base and thus leads to increased ice velocities. Consequently, ice models should incorporate basal hydrology to obtain meaningful results for future ice dynamics and their contribution to global sea level rise. Here, we introduce the balanced water layer concept, covering two prominent subglacial hydrological features for ice sheet modeling on a continental scale: the evolution of subglacial lakes and balance water fluxes. We couple it to the thermomechanical ice-flow model RIMBAY and apply it to a synthetic model domain. In our experiments we demonstrate the dynamic generation of subglacial lakes and their impact on the velocity field of the overlaying ice sheet, resulting in a negative ice mass balance. Furthermore, we introduce an elementary parametrization of the water flux–basal sliding coupling and reveal the predominance of the ice loss through the resulting ice streams against the stabilizing influence of less hydrologically active areas. We point out that established balance flux schemes quantify these effects only partially as their ability to store subglacial water is lacking.

A balanced water layer concept for subglacial hydrology in large scale ice sheet models

Science.gov (United States)

Goeller, S.; Thoma, M.; Grosfeld, K.; Miller, H.

2012-12-01

There is currently no doubt about the existence of a wide-spread hydrological network under the Antarctic ice sheet, which lubricates the ice base and thus leads to increased ice velocities. Consequently, ice models should incorporate basal hydrology to obtain meaningful results for future ice dynamics and their contribution to global sea level rise. Here, we introduce the balanced water layer concept, covering two prominent subglacial hydrological features for ice sheet modeling on a continental scale: the evolution of subglacial lakes and balance water fluxes. We couple it to the thermomechanical ice-flow model RIMBAY and apply it to a synthetic model domain inspired by the Gamburtsev Mountains, Antarctica. In our experiments we demonstrate the dynamic generation of subglacial lakes and their impact on the velocity field of the overlaying ice sheet, resulting in a negative ice mass balance. Furthermore, we introduce an elementary parametrization of the water flux-basal sliding coupling and reveal the predominance of the ice loss through the resulting ice streams against the stabilizing influence of less hydrologically active areas. We point out, that established balance flux schemes quantify these effects only partially as their ability to store subglacial water is lacking.

Coupled land surface-subsurface hydrogeophysical inverse modeling to estimate soil organic carbon content and explore associated hydrological and thermal dynamics in the Arctic tundra

Science.gov (United States)

Phuong Tran, Anh; Dafflon, Baptiste; Hubbard, Susan S.

2017-09-01

Quantitative characterization of soil organic carbon (OC) content is essential due to its significant impacts on surface-subsurface hydrological-thermal processes and microbial decomposition of OC, which both in turn are important for predicting carbon-climate feedbacks. While such quantification is particularly important in the vulnerable organic-rich Arctic region, it is challenging to achieve due to the general limitations of conventional core sampling and analysis methods, and to the extremely dynamic nature of hydrological-thermal processes associated with annual freeze-thaw events. In this study, we develop and test an inversion scheme that can flexibly use single or multiple datasets - including soil liquid water content, temperature and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data - to estimate the vertical distribution of OC content. Our approach relies on the fact that OC content strongly influences soil hydrological-thermal parameters and, therefore, indirectly controls the spatiotemporal dynamics of soil liquid water content, temperature and their correlated electrical resistivity. We employ the Community Land Model to simulate nonisothermal surface-subsurface hydrological dynamics from the bedrock to the top of canopy, with consideration of land surface processes (e.g., solar radiation balance, evapotranspiration, snow accumulation and melting) and ice-liquid water phase transitions. For inversion, we combine a deterministic and an adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) optimization algorithm to estimate a posteriori distributions of desired model parameters. For hydrological-thermal-to-geophysical variable transformation, the simulated subsurface temperature, liquid water content and ice content are explicitly linked to soil electrical resistivity via petrophysical and geophysical models. We validate the developed scheme using different numerical experiments and evaluate the influence of measurement errors and benefit of joint inversion on the

Data assimilation in hydrological modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Drecourt, Jean-Philippe

Data assimilation is an invaluable tool in hydrological modelling as it allows to efficiently combine scarce data with a numerical model to obtain improved model predictions. In addition, data assimilation also provides an uncertainty analysis of the predictions made by the hydrological model....... In this thesis, the Kalman filter is used for data assimilation with a focus on groundwater modelling. However the developed techniques are general and can be applied also in other modelling domains. Modelling involves conceptualization of the processes of Nature. Data assimilation provides a way to deal...... with model non-linearities and biased errors. A literature review analyzes the most popular techniques and their application in hydrological modelling. Since bias is an important problem in groundwater modelling, two bias aware Kalman filters have been implemented and compared using an artificial test case...

Stochastic Modelling of Hydrologic Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jonsdottir, Harpa

2007-01-01

In this PhD project several stochastic modelling methods are studied and applied on various subjects in hydrology. The research was prepared at Informatics and Mathematical Modelling at the Technical University of Denmark. The thesis is divided into two parts. The first part contains...... an introduction and an overview of the papers published. Then an introduction to basic concepts in hydrology along with a description of hydrological data is given. Finally an introduction to stochastic modelling is given. The second part contains the research papers. In the research papers the stochastic methods...... are described, as at the time of publication these methods represent new contribution to hydrology. The second part also contains additional description of software used and a brief introduction to stiff systems. The system in one of the papers is stiff....

Hierarchical mixture of experts and diagnostic modeling approach to reduce hydrologic model structural uncertainty: STRUCTURAL UNCERTAINTY DIAGNOSTICS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Moges, Edom [Civil and Environmental Engineering Department, Washington State University, Richland Washington USA; Demissie, Yonas [Civil and Environmental Engineering Department, Washington State University, Richland Washington USA; Li, Hong-Yi [Hydrology Group, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA

2016-04-01

In most water resources applications, a single model structure might be inadequate to capture the dynamic multi-scale interactions among different hydrological processes. Calibrating single models for dynamic catchments, where multiple dominant processes exist, can result in displacement of errors from structure to parameters, which in turn leads to over-correction and biased predictions. An alternative to a single model structure is to develop local expert structures that are effective in representing the dominant components of the hydrologic process and adaptively integrate them based on an indicator variable. In this study, the Hierarchical Mixture of Experts (HME) framework is applied to integrate expert model structures representing the different components of the hydrologic process. Various signature diagnostic analyses are used to assess the presence of multiple dominant processes and the adequacy of a single model, as well as to identify the structures of the expert models. The approaches are applied for two distinct catchments, the Guadalupe River (Texas) and the French Broad River (North Carolina) from the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX), using different structures of the HBV model. The results show that the HME approach has a better performance over the single model for the Guadalupe catchment, where multiple dominant processes are witnessed through diagnostic measures. Whereas, the diagnostics and aggregated performance measures prove that French Broad has a homogeneous catchment response, making the single model adequate to capture the response.

netherland hydrological modeling instrument

Science.gov (United States)

Hoogewoud, J. C.; de Lange, W. J.; Veldhuizen, A.; Prinsen, G.

2012-04-01

Netherlands Hydrological Modeling Instrument A decision support system for water basin management. J.C. Hoogewoud , W.J. de Lange ,A. Veldhuizen , G. Prinsen , The Netherlands Hydrological modeling Instrument (NHI) is the center point of a framework of models, to coherently model the hydrological system and the multitude of functions it supports. Dutch hydrological institutes Deltares, Alterra, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, RWS Waterdienst, STOWA and Vewin are cooperating in enhancing the NHI for adequate decision support. The instrument is used by three different ministries involved in national water policy matters, for instance the WFD, drought management, manure policy and climate change issues. The basis of the modeling instrument is a state-of-the-art on-line coupling of the groundwater system (MODFLOW), the unsaturated zone (metaSWAP) and the surface water system (MOZART-DM). It brings together hydro(geo)logical processes from the column to the basin scale, ranging from 250x250m plots to the river Rhine and includes salt water flow. The NHI is validated with an eight year run (1998-2006) with dry and wet periods. For this run different parts of the hydrology have been compared with measurements. For instance, water demands in dry periods (e.g. for irrigation), discharges at outlets, groundwater levels and evaporation. A validation alone is not enough to get support from stakeholders. Involvement from stakeholders in the modeling process is needed. There fore to gain sufficient support and trust in the instrument on different (policy) levels a couple of actions have been taken: 1. a transparent evaluation of modeling-results has been set up 2. an extensive program is running to cooperate with regional waterboards and suppliers of drinking water in improving the NHI 3. sharing (hydrological) data via newly setup Modeling Database for local and national models 4. Enhancing the NHI with "local" information. The NHI is and has been used for many

Model Calibration in Watershed Hydrology

Science.gov (United States)

Yilmaz, Koray K.; Vrugt, Jasper A.; Gupta, Hoshin V.; Sorooshian, Soroosh

2009-01-01

Hydrologic models use relatively simple mathematical equations to conceptualize and aggregate the complex, spatially distributed, and highly interrelated water, energy, and vegetation processes in a watershed. A consequence of process aggregation is that the model parameters often do not represent directly measurable entities and must, therefore, be estimated using measurements of the system inputs and outputs. During this process, known as model calibration, the parameters are adjusted so that the behavior of the model approximates, as closely and consistently as possible, the observed response of the hydrologic system over some historical period of time. This Chapter reviews the current state-of-the-art of model calibration in watershed hydrology with special emphasis on our own contributions in the last few decades. We discuss the historical background that has led to current perspectives, and review different approaches for manual and automatic single- and multi-objective parameter estimation. In particular, we highlight the recent developments in the calibration of distributed hydrologic models using parameter dimensionality reduction sampling, parameter regularization and parallel computing.

On the importance of methods in hydrological modelling. Perspectives from a case study

Science.gov (United States)

Fenicia, Fabrizio; Kavetski, Dmitri

2017-04-01

The hydrological community generally appreciates that developing any non-trivial hydrological model requires a multitude of modelling choices. These choices may range from a (seemingly) straightforward application of mass conservation, to the (often) guesswork-like selection of constitutive functions, parameter values, etc. The application of a model itself requires a myriad of methodological choices - the selection of numerical solvers, objective functions for model calibration, validation approaches, performance metrics, etc. Not unreasonably, hydrologists embarking on ever ambitious projects prioritize hydrological insight over the morass of methodological choices. Perhaps to emphasize "ideas" over "methods", some journals have even reduced the fontsize of the methodology sections of its articles. However, the very nature of modelling is that seemingly routine methodological choices can significantly affect the conclusions of case studies and investigations - making it dangerous to skimp over methodological details in an enthusiastic rush towards the next great hydrological idea. This talk shares modelling insights from a hydrological study of a 300 km2 catchment in Luxembourg, where the diversity of hydrograph dynamics observed at 10 locations begs the question of whether external forcings or internal catchment properties act as dominant controls on streamflow generation. The hydrological insights are fascinating (at least to us), but in this talk we emphasize the impact of modelling methodology on case study conclusions and recommendations. How did we construct our prior set of hydrological model hypotheses? What numerical solver was implemented and why was an objective function based on Bayesian theory deployed? And what would have happened had we omitted model cross-validation, or not used a systematic hypothesis testing approach?

Century long observation constrained global dynamic downscaling and hydrologic implication

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, H.; Yoshimura, K.; Chang, E.; Famiglietti, J. S.; Oki, T.

2012-12-01

It has been suggested that greenhouse gas induced warming climate causes the acceleration of large scale hydrologic cycles, and, indeed, many regions on the Earth have been suffered by hydrologic extremes getting more frequent. However, historical observations are not able to provide enough information in comprehensive manner to understand their long-term variability and/or global distributions. In this study, a century long high resolution global climate data is developed in order to break through existing limitations. 20th Century Reanalysis (20CR) which has relatively low spatial resolution (~2.0°) and longer term availability (140 years) is dynamically downscaled into global T248 (~0.5°) resolution using Experimental Climate Prediction Center (ECPC) Global Spectral Model (GSM) by spectral nudging data assimilation technique. Also, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) and Climate Research Unit (CRU) observational data are adopted to reduce model dependent uncertainty. Downscaled product successfully represents realistic geographical detail keeping low frequency signal in mean state and spatiotemporal variability, while previous bias correction method fails to reproduce high frequency variability. Newly developed data is used to investigate how long-term large scale terrestrial hydrologic cycles have been changed globally and how they have been interacted with various climate modes, such as El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). As a further application, it will be used to provide atmospheric boundary condition of multiple land surface models in the Global Soil Wetness Project Phase 3 (GSWP3).

Alternative socio-centric approach for model validation - a way forward for socio-hydrology

Science.gov (United States)

van Emmerik, Tim; Elshafei, Yasmina; Mahendran, Roobavannan; Kandasamy, Jaya; Pande, Saket; Sivapalan, Murugesu

2017-04-01

To better understand and mitigate the impacts of humans on the water cycle, the importance of studying the co-evolution of coupled human-water systems has been recognized. Because of its unique system dynamics, the Murrumbidgee river basin (part of the larger Murray-Darlin basin, Australia) is one of the main study areas in the emerging field of socio-hydrology. In recent years, various historical and modeling studies have contributed to gaining a better understanding of this system's behavior. Kandasamy et al. (2014) performed a historical study on the development of this human-water coupled system. They identified four eras, providing a historical context of the observed "pendulum" swing between first an exclusive focus on agricultural development, followed by increasing environmental awareness, subsequent efforts to mitigate, and finally to restore environmental health. A modeling effort by Van Emmerik et al. (2014) focused on reconstructing hydrological, economical, and societal dynamics and their feedbacks. A measure of changing societal values was included by introducing environmental awareness as an endogenously modeled variable, which resulted in capturing the co-evolution between economic development and environmental health. Later work by Elshafei et al. (2015) modeled and analyzed the two-way feedbacks of land use management and land degradation in two other Australian coupled systems. A composite variable, community sensitivity, was used to measure changing community sentiment, such that the model was capable of isolating the two-way feedbacks in the coupled system. As socio-hydrology adopts a holistic approach, it is often required to introduce (hydrologically) unconventional variables, such as environmental awareness or community sensitivity. It is the subject of ongoing debate how such variables can be validated, as there is no standardized data set available from hydrological or statistical agencies. Recent research (Wei et al. 2017) has provided

eWaterCycle: A global operational hydrological forecasting model

Science.gov (United States)

van de Giesen, Nick; Bierkens, Marc; Donchyts, Gennadii; Drost, Niels; Hut, Rolf; Sutanudjaja, Edwin

2015-04-01

Development of an operational hyper-resolution hydrological global model is a central goal of the eWaterCycle project (www.ewatercycle.org). This operational model includes ensemble forecasts (14 days) to predict water related stress around the globe. Assimilation of near-real time satellite data is part of the intended product that will be launched at EGU 2015. The challenges come from several directions. First, there are challenges that are mainly computer science oriented but have direct practical hydrological implications. For example, we aim to make use as much as possible of existing standards and open-source software. For example, different parts of our system are coupled through the Basic Model Interface (BMI) developed in the framework of the Community Surface Dynamics Modeling System (CSDMS). The PCR-GLOBWB model, built by Utrecht University, is the basic hydrological model that is the engine of the eWaterCycle project. Re-engineering of parts of the software was needed for it to run efficiently in a High Performance Computing (HPC) environment, and to be able to interface using BMI, and run on multiple compute nodes in parallel. The final aim is to have a spatial resolution of 1km x 1km, which is currently 10 x 10km. This high resolution is computationally not too demanding but very memory intensive. The memory bottleneck becomes especially apparent for data assimilation, for which we use OpenDA. OpenDa allows for different data assimilation techniques without the need to build these from scratch. We have developed a BMI adaptor for OpenDA, allowing OpenDA to use any BMI compatible model. To circumvent memory shortages which would result from standard applications of the Ensemble Kalman Filter, we have developed a variant that does not need to keep all ensemble members in working memory. At EGU, we will present this variant and how it fits well in HPC environments. An important step in the eWaterCycle project was the coupling between the hydrological and

A question driven socio-hydrological modeling process

Science.gov (United States)

Garcia, M.; Portney, K.; Islam, S.

2016-01-01

Human and hydrological systems are coupled: human activity impacts the hydrological cycle and hydrological conditions can, but do not always, trigger changes in human systems. Traditional modeling approaches with no feedback between hydrological and human systems typically cannot offer insight into how different patterns of natural variability or human-induced changes may propagate through this coupled system. Modeling of coupled human-hydrological systems, also called socio-hydrological systems, recognizes the potential for humans to transform hydrological systems and for hydrological conditions to influence human behavior. However, this coupling introduces new challenges and existing literature does not offer clear guidance regarding model conceptualization. There are no universally accepted laws of human behavior as there are for the physical systems; furthermore, a shared understanding of important processes within the field is often used to develop hydrological models, but there is no such consensus on the relevant processes in socio-hydrological systems. Here we present a question driven process to address these challenges. Such an approach allows modeling structure, scope and detail to remain contingent on and adaptive to the question context. We demonstrate the utility of this process by revisiting a classic question in water resources engineering on reservoir operation rules: what is the impact of reservoir operation policy on the reliability of water supply for a growing city? Our example model couples hydrological and human systems by linking the rate of demand decreases to the past reliability to compare standard operating policy (SOP) with hedging policy (HP). The model shows that reservoir storage acts both as a buffer for variability and as a delay triggering oscillations around a sustainable level of demand. HP reduces the threshold for action thereby decreasing the delay and the oscillation effect. As a result, per capita demand decreases during

Modeling Subsurface Hydrology in Floodplains

Science.gov (United States)

Evans, Cristina M.; Dritschel, David G.; Singer, Michael B.

2018-03-01

Soil-moisture patterns in floodplains are highly dynamic, owing to the complex relationships between soil properties, climatic conditions at the surface, and the position of the water table. Given this complexity, along with climate change scenarios in many regions, there is a need for a model to investigate the implications of different conditions on water availability to riparian vegetation. We present a model, HaughFlow, which is able to predict coupled water movement in the vadose and phreatic zones of hydraulically connected floodplains. Model output was calibrated and evaluated at six sites in Australia to identify key patterns in subsurface hydrology. This study identifies the importance of the capillary fringe in vadose zone hydrology due to its water storage capacity and creation of conductive pathways. Following peaks in water table elevation, water can be stored in the capillary fringe for up to months (depending on the soil properties). This water can provide a critical resource for vegetation that is unable to access the water table. When water table peaks coincide with heavy rainfall events, the capillary fringe can support saturation of the entire soil profile. HaughFlow is used to investigate the water availability to riparian vegetation, producing daily output of water content in the soil over decadal time periods within different depth ranges. These outputs can be summarized to support scientific investigations of plant-water relations, as well as in management applications.

Significant uncertainty in global scale hydrological modeling from precipitation data errors

Science.gov (United States)

Sperna Weiland, Frederiek C.; Vrugt, Jasper A.; van Beek, Rens (L.) P. H.; Weerts, Albrecht H.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

2015-10-01

In the past decades significant progress has been made in the fitting of hydrologic models to data. Most of this work has focused on simple, CPU-efficient, lumped hydrologic models using discharge, water table depth, soil moisture, or tracer data from relatively small river basins. In this paper, we focus on large-scale hydrologic modeling and analyze the effect of parameter and rainfall data uncertainty on simulated discharge dynamics with the global hydrologic model PCR-GLOBWB. We use three rainfall data products; the CFSR reanalysis, the ERA-Interim reanalysis, and a combined ERA-40 reanalysis and CRU dataset. Parameter uncertainty is derived from Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) using monthly discharge data from five of the largest river systems in the world. Our results demonstrate that the default parameterization of PCR-GLOBWB, derived from global datasets, can be improved by calibrating the model against monthly discharge observations. Yet, it is difficult to find a single parameterization of PCR-GLOBWB that works well for all of the five river basins considered herein and shows consistent performance during both the calibration and evaluation period. Still there may be possibilities for regionalization based on catchment similarities. Our simulations illustrate that parameter uncertainty constitutes only a minor part of predictive uncertainty. Thus, the apparent dichotomy between simulations of global-scale hydrologic behavior and actual data cannot be resolved by simply increasing the model complexity of PCR-GLOBWB and resolving sub-grid processes. Instead, it would be more productive to improve the characterization of global rainfall amounts at spatial resolutions of 0.5° and smaller.

The Importance of Hydrological Signature and Its Recurring Dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Wendi, D.; Marwan, N.; Merz, B.

2017-12-01

Temporal changes in hydrology are known to be challenging to detect and attribute due to multiple drivers that include complex processes that are non-stationary and highly variable. These drivers, such as human-induced climate change, natural climate variability, implementation of flood defense, river training, and land use change, could impact variably on space-time scales and influence or mask each other. Besides, data depicting these drivers are often not available. One conventional approach of analyzing the change is based on discrete points of magnitude (e.g. the frequency of recurring extreme discharge) and often linearly quantified and hence do not reveal the potential change in the hydrological process. Moreover, discharge series are often subject to measurement errors, such as rating curve error especially in the case of flood peaks where observation are derived through extrapolation. In this study, the system dynamics inferred from the hydrological signature (i.e. the shape of hydrograph) is being emphasized. One example is to see if certain flood dynamics (instead of flood peak) in the recent years, had also occurred in the past (or rather extraordinary), and if so what is its recurring rate and if there had been a shift in its occurrence in time or seasonality (e.g. earlier snow melt dominant flood). The utilization of hydrological signature here is extended beyond those of classical hydrology such as base flow index, recession and rising limb slope, and time to peak. It is in fact all these characteristics combined i.e. from the start until the end of the hydrograph. Recurrence plot is used as a method to quantify and visualize the recurring hydrological signature through its phase space trajectories, and usually in the order of dimension above 2. Such phase space trajectories are constructed by embedding the time series into a series of variables (i.e. number of dimension) corresponding to the time delay. Since the method is rather novel in

A Socio-hydrological Flood Model for the Elbe

Science.gov (United States)

Barendrecht, M.; Viglione, A.; Kreibich, H.; Vorogushyn, S.; Merz, B.; Bloeschl, G.

2017-12-01

Long-term feedbacks between humans and floods may lead to complex phenomena such as coping strategies, levee effects, call effects, adaptation effects, and poverty traps. Dynamic coupled human-flood models are a promising tool to represent such phenomena and the feedbacks leading to them. These socio-hydrological models may play an important role in integrated flood risk management when they are applied to real world case studies. They can help develop hypotheses about the phenomena that have been observed in the case study of interest, by describing the interactions between the social and hydrological variables as well as other relevant variables, such as economic, environmental, political or technical, that play a role in the system. We discuss the case of Dresden where the 2002 flood, which was preceded by a period without floods but was less severe, resulted in a higher damage than the 2013 flood, which was preceded by the 2002 flood and a couple of less severe floods. The lower damage in 2013 may be explained by the fact that society has become aware of the flood risk and has adapted to it. Developing and applying a socio-hydrological flood model to the case of Dresden can help discover whether it is possible that the lower damage is caused by an adaptation effect, or if there are other feedbacks that can explain the observed phenomenon.

Hydrologic influence on redox dynamics in estuarine environments

Science.gov (United States)

Michael, H. A.; Kim, K. H.; Guimond, J. A.; Heiss, J.; Ullman, W. J.; Seyfferth, A.

2017-12-01

Redox conditions in coastal aquifers control reactions that impact nutrient cycling, contaminant release, and carbon budgets, with implications for water resources and ecosystem health. Hydrologic changes can shift redox boundaries and inputs of reactants, especially in dynamic coastal systems subject to fluctuations on tidal, lunar, and longer timescales. We present two examples of redox shifts in estuarine systems in Delaware, USA: a beach aquifer and a saltmarsh. Beach aquifers are biogeochemical hot spots due to mixing between fresh groundwater and infiltrating seawater. At Cape Henlopen, DE, geochemical measurements identified reactions in the intertidal aquifer that include cycling of carbon, nitrogen, iron, and sulfur. Measurements and modeling illustrate that redox potential as well as the locations of redox reactions shift on tidal to seasonal timescales and in response to changing beach and aquifer properties, impacting overall rates of reactions such as denitrification that reduces N loads to coastal waters. In the St. Jones National Estuarine Research Reserve, tidal fluctuations in channels cause periodic groundwater-surface water exchange, water table movement, and intermittent flooding that varies spatially across the saltmarsh. These changes create shifts in redox potential that are greatest near channels and in the top 20 cm of sediments. The magnitude of redox change depends on hydrologic setting (near channels or in marsh interior), hydrologic conditions (tidal stage, seasonal shifts), as well as prevalence of macropores created by crab burrows that change seasonally with crab activity. These shifts correspond to changes in porewater chemistry that have implications for nutrient cycling and carbon export to the ocean. Understanding hydrologic influence on redox geochemistry is critical for predicting how these systems and their ecosystem services may change in the future in response to anthropogenic and climate change.

Syndromes of the global water crisis - exploring the emergent dynamics through socio-hydrological modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Kuil, Linda; Levy, Morgan; Pavao-Zuckerman, Mitch; Penny, Gopal; Scott, Christopher; Srinivasan, Veena; Thompson, Sally; Troy, Tara

2014-05-01

There is a great variety of human water systems at the global scale due to the types and timing of water supply/availability, and the high diversity in water use, management, and abstraction methods. Importantly, this is largely driven by differences in welfare, social values, institutional frameworks, and cultural traditions of communities. The observed trend of a growing world population in combination with changing habits that generally increase our water consumption per capita implies that an increasing number of communities will face water scarcity. Over the years much research has been done in order to increase our understanding of human water systems and their associated water problems, using both top-down and bottom-up approaches. Despite these efforts, the challenge has remained to generalize findings beyond the areas of interests and to establish a common framework in order to compare and learn from different cases as a basis for finding solutions. In a recent analysis of multiple interdisciplinary subnational water resources case studies, it was shown that a suite of distinct resources utilization patterns leading to a water crisis can be identified, namely: 1) groundwater depletion, 2) ecological destruction, 3) drought-driven conflicts, 4) unmet subsistence needs, 5) resource capture by elite and 6) water reallocation to nature (Srinivasan et al., 2012). The effects of these syndromes on long-lasting human wellbeing can be grouped in the following outcomes: unsustainability, vulnerability, chronic scarcity and adaptation. The aim of this group collaboration is to build on this work through the development of a socio-hydrological model that is capable of reproducing the above syndromes and outcomes, ultimately giving insight in the different pathways leading to the syndromes. The resulting model will be distinct compared to existing model frameworks for two reasons. First of all, feedback loops between the hydrological, the environmental and the human

Long-term dynamics emerging in floodplains and deltas from the interactions between hydrology and society in a changing climate

Science.gov (United States)

Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Viglione, Alberto; Yan, Kun; Brandimarte, Luigia; Blöschl, Günter

2014-05-01

Economic losses and fatalities associated to flood events have increased dramatically over the past decades. This situation might worsen in the near future because of rapid urbanization of many floodplains and deltas, along with enhancement of flood water levels as a result of human interventions, climate variability or sea level rise. To explore future dynamics, we developed a novel approach, which takes into account the dynamic nature of flood risk by an explicit treatment of the interactions and feedbacks between the hydrological and social components of flood risk (i.e. probability of flooding, and potential adverse consequences). In particular, we developed a socio-hydrological model that allows considering how the frequency and magnitude of flooding shapes the evolution of societies, while, at the same time, dynamic societies shape the frequency and magnitude of flooding. We then use this model to simulate long-term dynamics of different types of societies under hydrological change, e.g. increasing flood frequency. Based on the study of long-term dynamics of different floodplains and deltas around the world (e.g. Netherlands, Bangladesh), we identify two main typologies of flood-shaped societies: i) techno-societies, which "fight floods", and typically deal with risk by building and strengthening flood protection structures, such as levees or dikes; and ii) green-societies, which "lives with floods", and mainly cope with risk via adaptation measures, such as resettling out of flood prone areas. The outcomes of this study are relevant for the management of deltas and floodplains as they allow a comparison of long-term dynamics between diverse types of societies in terms of robustness to hydrological change.

Towards an integrated model of floodplain hydrology representing feedbacks and anthropogenic effects

Science.gov (United States)

Andreadis, K.; Schumann, G.; Voisin, N.; O'Loughlin, F.; Tesfa, T. K.; Bates, P.

2017-12-01

The exchange of water between hillslopes, river channels and floodplain can be quite complex and the difficulty in capturing the mechanisms behind it is exacerbated by the impact of human activities such as irrigation and reservoir operations. Although there has been a vast body of work on modeling hydrological processes, most of the resulting models have been limited with regards to aspects of the coupled human-natural system. For example, hydrologic models that represent processes such as evapotranspiration, infiltration, interception and groundwater dynamics often neglect anthropogenic effects or do not adequately represent the inherently two-dimensional floodplain flow. We present an integrated modeling framework that is comprised of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model, the LISFLOOD-FP hydrodynamic model, and the Water resources Management (WM) model. The VIC model solves the energy and water balance over a gridded domain and simulates a number of hydrologic features such as snow, frozen soils, lakes and wetlands, while also representing irrigation demand from cropland areas. LISFLOOD-FP solves an approximation of the Saint-Venant equations to efficiently simulate flow in river channels and the floodplain. The implementation of WM accommodates a variety of operating rules in reservoirs and withdrawals due to consumptive demands, allowing the successful simulation of regulated flow. The models are coupled so as to allow feedbacks between their corresponding processes, therefore providing the ability to test different hypotheses about the floodplain hydrology of large-scale basins. We test this integrated framework over the Zambezi River basin by simulating its hydrology from 2000-2010, and evaluate the results against remotely sensed observations. Finally, we examine the sensitivity of streamflow and water inundation to changes in reservoir operations, precipitation and temperature.

Repurposing of open data through large scale hydrological modelling - hypeweb.smhi.se

Science.gov (United States)

Strömbäck, Lena; Andersson, Jafet; Donnelly, Chantal; Gustafsson, David; Isberg, Kristina; Pechlivanidis, Ilias; Strömqvist, Johan; Arheimer, Berit

2015-04-01

Hydrological modelling demands large amounts of spatial data, such as soil properties, land use, topography, lakes and reservoirs, ice and snow coverage, water management (e.g. irrigation patterns and regulations), meteorological data and observed water discharge in rivers. By using such data, the hydrological model will in turn provide new data that can be used for new purposes (i.e. re-purposing). This presentation will give an example of how readily available open data from public portals have been re-purposed by using the Hydrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE) model in a number of large-scale model applications covering numerous subbasins and rivers. HYPE is a dynamic, semi-distributed, process-based, and integrated catchment model. The model output is launched as new Open Data at the web site www.hypeweb.smhi.se to be used for (i) Climate change impact assessments on water resources and dynamics; (ii) The European Water Framework Directive (WFD) for characterization and development of measure programs to improve the ecological status of water bodies; (iii) Design variables for infrastructure constructions; (iv) Spatial water-resource mapping; (v) Operational forecasts (1-10 days and seasonal) on floods and droughts; (vi) Input to oceanographic models for operational forecasts and marine status assessments; (vii) Research. The following regional domains have been modelled so far with different resolutions (number of subbasins within brackets): Sweden (37 000), Europe (35 000), Arctic basin (30 000), La Plata River (6 000), Niger River (800), Middle-East North-Africa (31 000), and the Indian subcontinent (6 000). The Hype web site provides several interactive web applications for exploring results from the models. The user can explore an overview of various water variables for historical and future conditions. Moreover the user can explore and download historical time series of discharge for each basin and explore the performance of the model

Dynamics of meteorological and hydrological droughts in the Neman river basin

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rimkus, Egidijus; Stonevičius, Edvinas; Kažys, Justas; Valiuškevičius, Gintaras; Korneev, Vladimir; Pakhomau, Aliaksandr

2013-01-01

The analysis of drought dynamics in the Neman river basin allows an assessment of extreme regional climate changes. Meteorological and hydrological warm period droughts were analyzed in this study. Meteorological droughts were identified using the standardized precipitation index, and hydrological droughts using the streamflow drought index. The whole river basin was analyzed over the period from 1961 to 2010. Precipitation data from Vilnius meteorological station (from 1887) and discharge data from Smalininkai (Neman) hydrological station (from 1811) were used for an evaluation of meteorological and hydrological drought recurrence over a long-term period. It was found that the total area dryness has decreased over the last 50 years. A statistically significant increase in standardized precipitation index values was observed in some river sub-basins. An analysis of drought recurrence dynamics showed that there was no indication that the number of dangerous drought was increased. It was determined that the standardized precipitation index cannot successfully identify the hydrological summer droughts in an area where the spring snowmelt forms a large part of the annual flow. In particular, the weak relationship between the indices was recorded in the first half of the summer, when a large part of the river runoff depends on accumulated water during the spring thaw. (letter)

A regional-scale, high resolution dynamical malaria model that accounts for population density, climate and surface hydrology.

Science.gov (United States)

Tompkins, Adrian M; Ermert, Volker

2013-02-18

The relative roles of climate variability and population related effects in malaria transmission could be better understood if regional-scale dynamical malaria models could account for these factors. A new dynamical community malaria model is introduced that accounts for the temperature and rainfall influences on the parasite and vector life cycles which are finely resolved in order to correctly represent the delay between the rains and the malaria season. The rainfall drives a simple but physically based representation of the surface hydrology. The model accounts for the population density in the calculation of daily biting rates. Model simulations of entomological inoculation rate and circumsporozoite protein rate compare well to data from field studies from a wide range of locations in West Africa that encompass both seasonal endemic and epidemic fringe areas. A focus on Bobo-Dioulasso shows the ability of the model to represent the differences in transmission rates between rural and peri-urban areas in addition to the seasonality of malaria. Fine spatial resolution regional integrations for Eastern Africa reproduce the malaria atlas project (MAP) spatial distribution of the parasite ratio, and integrations for West and Eastern Africa show that the model grossly reproduces the reduction in parasite ratio as a function of population density observed in a large number of field surveys, although it underestimates malaria prevalence at high densities probably due to the neglect of population migration. A new dynamical community malaria model is publicly available that accounts for climate and population density to simulate malaria transmission on a regional scale. The model structure facilitates future development to incorporate migration, immunity and interventions.

A Community Data Model for Hydrologic Observations

Science.gov (United States)

Tarboton, D. G.; Horsburgh, J. S.; Zaslavsky, I.; Maidment, D. R.; Valentine, D.; Jennings, B.

2006-12-01

The CUAHSI Hydrologic Information System project is developing information technology infrastructure to support hydrologic science. Hydrologic information science involves the description of hydrologic environments in a consistent way, using data models for information integration. This includes a hydrologic observations data model for the storage and retrieval of hydrologic observations in a relational database designed to facilitate data retrieval for integrated analysis of information collected by multiple investigators. It is intended to provide a standard format to facilitate the effective sharing of information between investigators and to facilitate analysis of information within a single study area or hydrologic observatory, or across hydrologic observatories and regions. The observations data model is designed to store hydrologic observations and sufficient ancillary information (metadata) about the observations to allow them to be unambiguously interpreted and used and provide traceable heritage from raw measurements to usable information. The design is based on the premise that a relational database at the single observation level is most effective for providing querying capability and cross dimension data retrieval and analysis. This premise is being tested through the implementation of a prototype hydrologic observations database, and the development of web services for the retrieval of data from and ingestion of data into the database. These web services hosted by the San Diego Supercomputer center make data in the database accessible both through a Hydrologic Data Access System portal and directly from applications software such as Excel, Matlab and ArcGIS that have Standard Object Access Protocol (SOAP) capability. This paper will (1) describe the data model; (2) demonstrate the capability for representing diverse data in the same database; (3) demonstrate the use of the database from applications software for the performance of hydrologic analysis

Data assimilation in integrated hydrological modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Jørn

Integrated hydrological models are useful tools for water resource management and research, and advances in computational power and the advent of new observation types has resulted in the models generally becoming more complex and distributed. However, the models are often characterized by a high...... degree of parameterization which results in significant model uncertainty which cannot be reduced much due to observations often being scarce and often taking the form of point measurements. Data assimilation shows great promise for use in integrated hydrological models , as it allows for observations...... to be efficiently combined with models to improve model predictions, reduce uncertainty and estimate model parameters. In this thesis, a framework for assimilating multiple observation types and updating multiple components and parameters of a catchment scale integrated hydrological model is developed and tested...

On modeling complex interplay in small-scale self-organized socio-hydrological systems

Science.gov (United States)

Muneepeerakul, Rachata

2017-04-01

Successful and sustainable socio-hydrological systems, as in any coupled natural human-systems, require effective governance, which depends on the existence of proper infrastructure (both hard and soft). Recent work has addressed systems in which resource users and the organization responsible for maintaining the infrastructure are separate entities. However, many socio-hydrological systems, especially in developing countries, are small and without such formal division of labor; rather, such division of labor typically arises from self-organization within the population. In this work, we modify and mathematically operationalize a conceptual framework by developing a system of differential equations that capture the strategic behavior within such a self-organized population, its interplay with infrastructure characteristics and hydrological dynamics, and feedbacks between these elements. The model yields a number of insightful conditions related to long-term sustainability and collapse of the socio-hydrological system in the form of relationships between biophysical and social factors. These relationships encapsulate nonlinear interactions of these factors. The modeling framework is grounded in a solid conceptual foundation upon which additional modifications and realism can be built for potential reconciliation between socio-hydrology with other related fields and further applications.

Sensitivity analysis for the coupling of a subglacial hydrology model with a 3D ice-sheet model.

Science.gov (United States)

Bertagna, L.; Perego, M.; Gunzburger, M.; Hoffman, M. J.; Price, S. F.

2017-12-01

When studying the movement of ice sheets, one of the most important factors that influence the velocity of the ice is the amount of friction against the bedrock. Usually, this is modeled by a friction coefficient that may depend on the bed geometry and other quantities, such as the temperature and/or water pressure at the ice-bedrock interface. These quantities are often assumed to be known (either by indirect measurements or by means of parameter estimation) and constant in time. Here, we present a 3D computational model for the simulation of the ice dynamics which incorporates a 2D model proposed by Hewitt (2011) for the subglacial water pressure. The hydrology model is fully coupled with the Blatter-Pattyn model for the ice sheet flow, as the subglacial water pressure appears in the expression for the ice friction coefficient, and the ice velocity appears as a source term in the hydrology model. We will present results on real geometries, and perform a sensitivity analysis with respect to the hydrology model parameters.

An Educational Model for Hands-On Hydrology Education

Science.gov (United States)

AghaKouchak, A.; Nakhjiri, N.; Habib, E. H.

2014-12-01

This presentation provides an overview of a hands-on modeling tool developed for students in civil engineering and earth science disciplines to help them learn the fundamentals of hydrologic processes, model calibration, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty assessment, and practice conceptual thinking in solving engineering problems. The toolbox includes two simplified hydrologic models, namely HBV-EDU and HBV-Ensemble, designed as a complement to theoretical hydrology lectures. The models provide an interdisciplinary application-oriented learning environment that introduces the hydrologic phenomena through the use of a simplified conceptual hydrologic model. The toolbox can be used for in-class lab practices and homework assignments, and assessment of students' understanding of hydrological processes. Using this modeling toolbox, students can gain more insights into how hydrological processes (e.g., precipitation, snowmelt and snow accumulation, soil moisture, evapotranspiration and runoff generation) are interconnected. The educational toolbox includes a MATLAB Graphical User Interface (GUI) and an ensemble simulation scheme that can be used for teaching more advanced topics including uncertainty analysis, and ensemble simulation. Both models have been administered in a class for both in-class instruction and a final project, and students submitted their feedback about the toolbox. The results indicate that this educational software had a positive impact on students understanding and knowledge of hydrology.

Real-Time Analysis and Forecasting of Multisite River Flow Using a Distributed Hydrological Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mingdong Sun

2014-01-01

Full Text Available A spatial distributed hydrological forecasting system was developed to promote the analysis of river flow dynamic state in a large basin. The research presented the real-time analysis and forecasting of multisite river flow in the Nakdong River Basin using a distributed hydrological model with radar rainfall forecast data. A real-time calibration algorithm of hydrological distributed model was proposed to investigate the particular relationship between the water storage and basin discharge. Demonstrate the approach of simulating multisite river flow using a distributed hydrological model couple with real-time calibration and forecasting of multisite river flow with radar rainfall forecasts data. The hydrographs and results exhibit that calibrated flow simulations are very approximate to the flow observation at all sites and the accuracy of forecasting flow is gradually decreased with lead times extending from 1 hr to 3 hrs. The flow forecasts are lower than the flow observation which is likely caused by the low estimation of radar rainfall forecasts. The research has well demonstrated that the distributed hydrological model is readily applicable for multisite real-time river flow analysis and forecasting in a large basin.

56 Hydrological Dynamics and Human Impact on Ecosystems of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

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Hydrological Dynamics and Human Impact on Ecosystems of Lake Tana, Northwestern. Ethiopia. 1Amare ... and lake level data were evaluated to identify change in climate and lake level. The annual ... economic importance. The total area of ...

Hydrological land surface modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ridler, Marc-Etienne Francois

Recent advances in integrated hydrological and soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer (SVAT) modelling have led to improved water resource management practices, greater crop production, and better flood forecasting systems. However, uncertainty is inherent in all numerical models ultimately leading...... temperature are explored in a multi-objective calibration experiment to optimize the parameters in a SVAT model in the Sahel. The two satellite derived variables were effective at constraining most land-surface and soil parameters. A data assimilation framework is developed and implemented with an integrated...... and disaster management. The objective of this study is to develop and investigate methods to reduce hydrological model uncertainty by using supplementary data sources. The data is used either for model calibration or for model updating using data assimilation. Satellite estimates of soil moisture and surface...

Dynamic modeling of nitrogen losses in river networks unravels the coupled effects of hydrological and biogeochemical processes

Science.gov (United States)

Alexander, Richard B.; Böhlke, John Karl; Boyer, Elizabeth W.; David, Mark B.; Harvey, Judson W.; Mulholland, Patrick J.; Seitzinger, Sybil P.; Tobias, Craig R.; Tonitto, Christina; Wollheim, Wilfred M.

2009-01-01

The importance of lotic systems as sinks for nitrogen inputs is well recognized. A fraction of nitrogen in streamflow is removed to the atmosphere via denitrification with the remainder exported in streamflow as nitrogen loads. At the watershed scale, there is a keen interest in understanding the factors that control the fate of nitrogen throughout the stream channel network, with particular attention to the processes that deliver large nitrogen loads to sensitive coastal ecosystems. We use a dynamic stream transport model to assess biogeochemical (nitrate loadings, concentration, temperature) and hydrological (discharge, depth, velocity) effects on reach-scale denitrification and nitrate removal in the river networks of two watersheds having widely differing levels of nitrate enrichment but nearly identical discharges. Stream denitrification is estimated by regression as a nonlinear function of nitrate concentration, streamflow, and temperature, using more than 300 published measurements from a variety of US streams. These relations are used in the stream transport model to characterize nitrate dynamics related to denitrification at a monthly time scale in the stream reaches of the two watersheds. Results indicate that the nitrate removal efficiency of streams, as measured by the percentage of the stream nitrate flux removed via denitrification per unit length of channel, is appreciably reduced during months with high discharge and nitrate flux and increases during months of low-discharge and flux. Biogeochemical factors, including land use, nitrate inputs, and stream concentrations, are a major control on reach-scale denitrification, evidenced by the disproportionately lower nitrate removal efficiency in streams of the highly nitrate-enriched watershed as compared with that in similarly sized streams in the less nitrate-enriched watershed. Sensitivity analyses reveal that these important biogeochemical factors and physical hydrological factors contribute nearly

Developing of Watershed Radionuclide Transport Model DHSVM-R as Modification and Extension of Distributed Hydrological and Sediment Dynamics Model DHSVM

Science.gov (United States)

Zheleznyak, M.; Kivva, S.; Onda, Y.; Nanba, K.; Wakiyama, Y.; Konoplev, A.

2015-12-01

The reliable modeling tools for prediction wash - off radionuclides from watersheds are needed as for assessment the consequences of accidental and industrial releases of radionuclides, as for soil erosion studies using the radioactive tracers. The distributed model of radionuclide transport through watershed in exchangeable and nonexchangeable forms in solute and with sediments was developed and validated for small Chernobyl watersheds in 90th within EU SPARTACUS project (van der Perk et al., 1996). New tendency is coupling of radionuclide transport models and the widely validated hydrological distributed models. To develop radionuclide transport model DHSVM-R the open source Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model -DHSVM http://www.hydro.washington.edu/Lettenmaier/Models/DHSVM was modified and extended. The main changes provided in the hydrological and sediment transport modules of DHSVM are as follows: Morel-Seytoux infiltration model is added; four-directions schematization for the model's cells flows (D4) is replaced by D8 approach; the finite-difference schemes for solution of kinematic wave equations for overland water flow, stream net flow, and sediment transport are replaced by new computationally efficient scheme. New radionuclide transport module, coupled with hydrological and sediment transport modules, continues SPARTACUS's approach, - it describes radionuclide wash-off from watershed and transport via stream network in soluble phase and on suspended sediments. The hydrological module of DHSVM-R was calibrated and validated for the watersheds of Ukrainian Carpathian mountains and for the subwatersheds of Niida river flowing 137Cs in solute and with suspended sediments to Pacific Ocean at 30 km north of the Fukushima Daiichi NPP. The modules of radionuclide and sediment transport were calibrated and validated versus experimental data for USLE experimental plots in Fukushima Prefecture and versus monitoring data collected in Niida watershed. The role

Modelling of hydrologic processes and potential response to climate change through the use of a multisite SWAT

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gül, G.O.; Rosbjerg, Dan

2010-01-01

Hydrologic models that use components for integrated modelling of surface water and groundwater systems help conveniently simulate the dynamically linked hydrologic and hydraulic processes that govern flow conditions in watersheds. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is one such model...... that allows continuous simulations over long time periods in the land phase of the hydrologic cycle by incorporating surface water and groundwater interactions. This study provides a verified structure for the SWAT to evaluate existing flow regimes in a small-sized catchment in Denmark and examines a simple...... simulation to help quantify the effects of climate change on regional water quantities. SWAT can be regarded among the alternative hydrologic simulation tools applicable for catchments with similar characteristics and of similar sizes in Denmark. However, the modellers would be required to determine a proper...

Adaptable Web Modules to Stimulate Active Learning in Engineering Hydrology using Data and Model Simulations of Three Regional Hydrologic Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Habib, E. H.; Tarboton, D. G.; Lall, U.; Bodin, M.; Rahill-Marier, B.; Chimmula, S.; Meselhe, E. A.; Ali, A.; Williams, D.; Ma, Y.

2013-12-01

The hydrologic community has long recognized the need for broad reform in hydrologic education. A paradigm shift is critically sought in undergraduate hydrology and water resource education by adopting context-rich, student-centered, and active learning strategies. Hydrologists currently deal with intricate issues rooted in complex natural ecosystems containing a multitude of interconnected processes. Advances in the multi-disciplinary field include observational settings such as Critical Zone and Water, Sustainability and Climate Observatories, Hydrologic Information Systems, instrumentation and modeling methods. These research advances theory and practices call for similar efforts and improvements in hydrologic education. The typical, text-book based approach in hydrologic education has focused on specific applications and/or unit processes associated with the hydrologic cycle with idealizations, rather than the contextual relations in the physical processes and the spatial and temporal dynamics connecting climate and ecosystems. An appreciation of the natural variability of these processes will lead to graduates with the ability to develop independent learning skills and understanding. This appreciation cannot be gained in curricula where field components such as observational and experimental data are deficient. These types of data are also critical when using simulation models to create environments that support this type of learning. Additional sources of observations in conjunction with models and field data are key to students understanding of the challenges associated with using models to represent such complex systems. Recent advances in scientific visualization and web-based technologies provide new opportunities for the development of active learning techniques utilizing ongoing research. The overall goal of the current study is to develop visual, case-based, data and simulation driven learning experiences to instructors and students through a web

Newtonian nudging for a Richards equation-based distributed hydrological model

Science.gov (United States)

Paniconi, Claudio; Marrocu, Marino; Putti, Mario; Verbunt, Mark

The objective of data assimilation is to provide physically consistent estimates of spatially distributed environmental variables. In this study a relatively simple data assimilation method has been implemented in a relatively complex hydrological model. The data assimilation technique is Newtonian relaxation or nudging, in which model variables are driven towards observations by a forcing term added to the model equations. The forcing term is proportional to the difference between simulation and observation (relaxation component) and contains four-dimensional weighting functions that can incorporate prior knowledge about the spatial and temporal variability and characteristic scales of the state variable(s) being assimilated. The numerical model couples a three-dimensional finite element Richards equation solver for variably saturated porous media and a finite difference diffusion wave approximation based on digital elevation data for surface water dynamics. We describe the implementation of the data assimilation algorithm for the coupled model and report on the numerical and hydrological performance of the resulting assimilation scheme. Nudging is shown to be successful in improving the hydrological simulation results, and it introduces little computational cost, in terms of CPU and other numerical aspects of the model's behavior, in some cases even improving numerical performance compared to model runs without nudging. We also examine the sensitivity of the model to nudging term parameters including the spatio-temporal influence coefficients in the weighting functions. Overall the nudging algorithm is quite flexible, for instance in dealing with concurrent observation datasets, gridded or scattered data, and different state variables, and the implementation presented here can be readily extended to any of these features not already incorporated. Moreover the nudging code and tests can serve as a basis for implementation of more sophisticated data assimilation

Dynamic taxonomies applied to a web-based relational database for geo-hydrological risk mitigation

Science.gov (United States)

Sacco, G. M.; Nigrelli, G.; Bosio, A.; Chiarle, M.; Luino, F.

2012-02-01

In its 40 years of activity, the Research Institute for Geo-hydrological Protection of the Italian National Research Council has amassed a vast and varied collection of historical documentation on landslides, muddy-debris flows, and floods in northern Italy from 1600 to the present. Since 2008, the archive resources have been maintained through a relational database management system. The database is used for routine study and research purposes as well as for providing support during geo-hydrological emergencies, when data need to be quickly and accurately retrieved. Retrieval speed and accuracy are the main objectives of an implementation based on a dynamic taxonomies model. Dynamic taxonomies are a general knowledge management model for configuring complex, heterogeneous information bases that support exploratory searching. At each stage of the process, the user can explore or browse the database in a guided yet unconstrained way by selecting the alternatives suggested for further refining the search. Dynamic taxonomies have been successfully applied to such diverse and apparently unrelated domains as e-commerce and medical diagnosis. Here, we describe the application of dynamic taxonomies to our database and compare it to traditional relational database query methods. The dynamic taxonomy interface, essentially a point-and-click interface, is considerably faster and less error-prone than traditional form-based query interfaces that require the user to remember and type in the "right" search keywords. Finally, dynamic taxonomy users have confirmed that one of the principal benefits of this approach is the confidence of having considered all the relevant information. Dynamic taxonomies and relational databases work in synergy to provide fast and precise searching: one of the most important factors in timely response to emergencies.

Evaluation for Moroccan dynamically downscaled precipitation from GCM CHAM5 and its regional hydrologic response

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tsou Jaw

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Study region: Morocco (excluding Western Sahara. Study focus: This study evaluated Moroccan precipitation, dynamically downscaled (0.18-degree from three runs of the studied GCM ECHAM5/MPI-OM, under the present-day (1971–2000/20C3M and future (2036–2065/A1B climate scenarios. The spatial and quantitative properties of the downscaled precipitation were evaluated by a verified, fine-resolution reference. The effectiveness of the hydrologic responses, driven by the downscaled precipitation, was further evaluated for the study region over the upstream watershed of Oum er Rbia River located in Central Morocco. New hydrological insights for the region: The raw downscaling runs reasonably featured the spatial properties but quantitatively misrepresented the mean and extreme intensities of present-day precipitation. Two proposed bias correction approaches, namely stationary Quantile-Mapping (QM and non-stationary Equidistant CDF Matching model (EDCDFm, successfully reduced the system biases existing in the raw downscaling runs. However, both raw and corrected runs projected great diversity in terms of the quantity of future precipitation. Hydrologic simulations performed by a well-calibrated Variable Infiltration Capacity model successfully reproduced the present-day streamflow. The driven flows were identified highly correlated with the effectiveness of the downscaled precipitation. The future flows were projected to be markedly diverse, mainly due to the varied precipitation projections. Two of the three flow simulation runs projected slight to severe drying scenarios, while another projected an opposite trend for the evaluated future period. Keywords: Dynamical downscaling, Moroccan precipitation, Regional hydrology

ERM model analysis for adaptation to hydrological model errors

Science.gov (United States)

Baymani-Nezhad, M.; Han, D.

2018-05-01

Hydrological conditions are changed continuously and these phenomenons generate errors on flood forecasting models and will lead to get unrealistic results. Therefore, to overcome these difficulties, a concept called model updating is proposed in hydrological studies. Real-time model updating is one of the challenging processes in hydrological sciences and has not been entirely solved due to lack of knowledge about the future state of the catchment under study. Basically, in terms of flood forecasting process, errors propagated from the rainfall-runoff model are enumerated as the main source of uncertainty in the forecasting model. Hence, to dominate the exciting errors, several methods have been proposed by researchers to update the rainfall-runoff models such as parameter updating, model state updating, and correction on input data. The current study focuses on investigations about the ability of rainfall-runoff model parameters to cope with three types of existing errors, timing, shape and volume as the common errors in hydrological modelling. The new lumped model, the ERM model, has been selected for this study to evaluate its parameters for its use in model updating to cope with the stated errors. Investigation about ten events proves that the ERM model parameters can be updated to cope with the errors without the need to recalibrate the model.

Flood Modelling of Banjir Kanal Barat (Integration of Hydrology Model and GIS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muhammad Aris Marfai

2004-01-01

Full Text Available Hydrological modelling has an advantage on river flood study. Hydrological factors can be easily determined and calculated using hydrological model. HEC-RAS (Hydrological Engineering Centre-River Analysis System software is well known as hydrological modelling software for flood simulation and encroachment analysis of the floodplain area. For spatial performance and analysis of flood, the integration of the Geographic Information Systems (GIS and hydrological model is needed. The aims of this research are 1 to perform a flood encroachment using HEC-RAS software, and 2 to generate a flood hazard map. The methodology for this research omprise of 1 generating geometric data as a requirement of the data input on HEC-RAS hydrological model, 2 Hydrological data inputting, 3 generating of the flood encroachment analysis, and 4 transformation of flood encroachment into flood hazard map. The spatial pattern of the flood hazard is illustrated in a map. The result shows that hydrological model as integration with GIS can be used for flood hazard map generation. This method has advantages on the calculation of the hydrological factors of flood and spatial performance of the flood hazard map. For further analysis, the landuse map can be used on the overlay operation with the flood hazard map in order to obtain the impact of the flood on the landuse.

Hydrological Modeling in Alaska with WRF-Hydro

Science.gov (United States)

Elmer, N. J.; Zavodsky, B.; Molthan, A.

2017-12-01

The operational National Water Model (NWM), implemented in August 2016, is an instantiation of the Weather Research and Forecasting hydrological extension package (WRF-Hydro). Currently, the NWM only covers the contiguous United States, but will be expanded to include an Alaska domain in the future. It is well known that Alaska presents several hydrological modeling challenges, including unique arctic/sub-arctic hydrological processes not observed elsewhere in the United States and a severe lack of in-situ observations for model initialization. This project sets up an experimental version of WRF-Hydro in Alaska mimicking the NWM to gauge the ability of WRF-Hydro to represent hydrological processes in Alaska and identify model calibration challenges. Recent and upcoming launches of hydrology-focused NASA satellite missions such as the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) and Surface Water Ocean Topography (SWOT) expand the spatial and temporal coverage of observations in Alaska, so this study also lays the groundwork for assimilating these NASA datasets into WRF-Hydro in the future.

Predicting Phosphorus Dynamics Across Physiographic Regions Using a Mixed Hortonian Non-Hortonian Hydrology Model

Science.gov (United States)

Collick, A.; Easton, Z. M.; Auerbach, D.; Buchanan, B.; Kleinman, P. J. A.; Fuka, D.

2017-12-01

Predicting phosphorus (P) loss from agricultural watersheds depends on accurate representation of the hydrological and chemical processes governing P mobility and transport. In complex landscapes, P predictions are complicated by a broad range of soils with and without restrictive layers, a wide variety of agricultural management, and variable hydrological drivers. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a watershed model commonly used to predict runoff and non-point source pollution transport, but is commonly only used with Hortonian (traditional SWAT) or non-Hortonian (SWAT-VSA) initializations. Many shallow soils underlain by a restricting layer commonly generate saturation excess runoff from variable source areas (VSA), which is well represented in a re-conceptualized version, SWAT-VSA. However, many watersheds exhibit traits of both infiltration excess and saturation excess hydrology internally, based on the hydrologic distance from the stream, distribution of soils across the landscape, and characteristics of restricting layers. The objective of this research is to provide an initial look at integrating distributed predictive capabilities that consider both Hortonian and Non-Hortonian solutions simultaneously within a single SWAT-VSA initialization. We compare results from all three conceptual watershed initializations against measured surface runoff and stream P loads and to highlight the model's ability to drive sub-field management of P. All three initializations predict discharge similarly well (daily Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiencies above 0.5), but the new conceptual SWAT-VSA initialization performed best in predicting P export from the watershed, while also identifying critical source areas - those areas generating large runoff and P losses at the sub field level. These results support the use of mixed Hortonian non-Hortonian SWAT-VSA initializations in predicting watershed-scale P losses and identifying critical source areas of P loss in landscapes

The evolution of process-based hydrologic models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Clark, Martyn P.; Bierkens, Marc F.P.; Samaniego, Luis; Woods, Ross A.; Uijlenhoet, Remko; Bennett, Katrina E.; Pauwels, Valentijn R.N.; Cai, Xitian; Wood, Andrew W.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

2017-01-01

The diversity in hydrologic models has historically led to great controversy on the "correct" approach to process-based hydrologic modeling, with debates centered on the adequacy of process parameterizations, data limitations and uncertainty, and computational constraints on model analysis. In this

Integration of Local Hydrology into Regional Hydrologic Simulation Model

Science.gov (United States)

Van Zee, R. J.; Lal, W. A.

2002-05-01

South Florida hydrology is dominated by the Central and South Florida (C&SF) Project that is managed to provide flood protection, water supply and environmental protection. A complex network of levees canals and structures provide these services to the individual drainage basins. The landscape varies widely across the C&SF system, with corresponding differences in the way water is managed within each basin. Agricultural areas are managed for optimal crop production. Urban areas maximize flood protection while maintaining minimum water levels to protect adjacent wetlands and local water supplies. "Natural" areas flood and dry out in response to the temporal distribution of rainfall. The evaluation of planning, regulation and operational issues require access to a simulation model that captures the effects of both regional and local hydrology. The Regional Simulation Model (RSM) uses a "pseudo-cell" approach to integrate local hydrology within the context of a regional hydrologic system. A 2-dimensional triangulated mesh is used to represent the regional surface and ground water systems and a 1-dimensional canal network is superimposed onto this mesh. The movement of water is simulated using a finite volume formulation with a diffusive wave approximation. Each cell in the triangulated mesh has a "pseudo-cell" counterpart, which represents the same area as the cell, but it is conceptualized such that it simulates the localized hydrologic conditions Protocols have been established to provide an interface between a cell and its pseudo-cell counterpart. . A number of pseudo-cell types have already been developed and tested in the simulation of Water Conservation Area 1 and several have been proposed to deal with specific local issues in the Southwest Florida Feasibility Study. This presentation will provide an overview of the overall RSM design, describe the relationship between cells and pseudo-cells, and illustrate how pseudo-cells are be used to simulate agriculture

Debates—Perspectives on socio-hydrology: Modeling flood risk as a public policy problem

Science.gov (United States)

Gober, Patricia; Wheater, Howard S.

2015-06-01

Socio-hydrology views human activities as endogenous to water system dynamics; it is the interaction between human and biophysical processes that threatens the viability of current water systems through positive feedbacks and unintended consequences. Di Baldassarre et al. implement socio-hydrology as a flood risk problem using the concept of social memory as a vehicle to link human perceptions to flood damage. Their mathematical model has heuristic value in comparing potential flood damages in green versus technological societies. It can also support communities in exploring the potential consequences of policy decisions and evaluating critical policy tradeoffs, for example, between flood protection and economic development. The concept of social memory does not, however, adequately capture the social processes whereby public perceptions are translated into policy action, including the pivotal role played by the media in intensifying or attenuating perceived flood risk, the success of policy entrepreneurs in keeping flood hazard on the public agenda during short windows of opportunity for policy action, and different societal approaches to managing flood risk that derive from cultural values and economic interests. We endorse the value of seeking to capture these dynamics in a simplified conceptual framework, but favor a broader conceptualization of socio-hydrology that includes a knowledge exchange component, including the way modeling insights and scientific results are communicated to floodplain managers. The social processes used to disseminate the products of socio-hydrological research are as important as the research results themselves in determining whether modeling is used for real-world decision making.

Characterizing the Surface Connectivity of Depressional Wetlands: Linking Remote Sensing and Hydrologic Modeling Approaches

Science.gov (United States)

Christensen, J.; Evenson, G. R.; Vanderhoof, M.; Wu, Q.; Golden, H. E.; Lane, C.

2017-12-01

Surface connectivity of wetlands in the 700,000 km2 Prairie Pothole Region of North America (PPR) can occur through fill-spill and fill-merge mechanisms, with some wetlands eventually spilling into stream/river systems. These wetland-to-wetland and wetland-to-stream connections vary both spatially and temporally in PPR watersheds and are important to understanding hydrologic and biogeochemical processes in the landscape. To explore how to best characterize spatial and temporal variability in aquatic connectivity, we compared three approaches, 1) hydrological modeling alone, 2) remotely-sensed data alone, and 3) integrating remotely-sensed data into a hydrological model. These approaches were tested in the Pipestem Creek Watershed, North Dakota across a drought to deluge cycle (1990-2011). A Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was modified to include the water storage capacity of individual non-floodplain wetlands identified in the National Wetland Inventory (NWI) dataset. The SWAT-NWI model simulated the water balance and storage of each wetland and the temporal variability of their hydrologic connections between wetlands during the 21-year study period. However, SWAT-NWI only accounted for fill-spill, and did not allow for the expansion and merging of wetlands situated within larger depressions. Alternatively, we assessed the occurrence of fill-merge mechanisms using inundation maps derived from Landsat images on 19 cloud-free days during the 21 years. We found fill-merge mechanisms to be prevalent across the Pipestem watershed during times of deluge. The SWAT-NWI model was then modified to use LiDAR-derived depressions that account for the potential maximum depression extent, including the merging of smaller wetlands. The inundation maps were used to evaluate the ability of the SWAT-depression model to simulate fill-merge dynamics in addition to fill-spill dynamics throughout the study watershed. Ultimately, using remote sensing to inform and validate

The Rangeland Hydrology and Erosion Model: A dynamic approach for predicting soil loss on rangelands

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In this study we present the improved Rangeland Hydrology and Erosion Model (RHEM V2.3), a process-based erosion prediction tool specific for rangeland application. The article provides the mathematical formulation of the model and parameter estimation equations. Model performance is assessed agains...

Modeling urbanized watershed flood response changes with distributed hydrological model: key hydrological processes, parameterization and case studies

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Y.

2017-12-01

Urbanization is the world development trend for the past century, and the developing countries have been experiencing much rapider urbanization in the past decades. Urbanization brings many benefits to human beings, but also causes negative impacts, such as increasing flood risk. Impact of urbanization on flood response has long been observed, but quantitatively studying this effect still faces great challenges. For example, setting up an appropriate hydrological model representing the changed flood responses and determining accurate model parameters are very difficult in the urbanized or urbanizing watershed. In the Pearl River Delta area, rapidest urbanization has been observed in China for the past decades, and dozens of highly urbanized watersheds have been appeared. In this study, a physically based distributed watershed hydrological model, the Liuxihe model is employed and revised to simulate the hydrological processes of the highly urbanized watershed flood in the Pearl River Delta area. A virtual soil type is then defined in the terrain properties dataset, and its runoff production and routing algorithms are added to the Liuxihe model. Based on a parameter sensitive analysis, the key hydrological processes of a highly urbanized watershed is proposed, that provides insight into the hydrological processes and for parameter optimization. Based on the above analysis, the model is set up in the Songmushan watershed where there is hydrological data observation. A model parameter optimization and updating strategy is proposed based on the remotely sensed LUC types, which optimizes model parameters with PSO algorithm and updates them based on the changed LUC types. The model parameters in Songmushan watershed are regionalized at the Pearl River Delta area watersheds based on the LUC types of the other watersheds. A dozen watersheds in the highly urbanized area of Dongguan City in the Pearl River Delta area were studied for the flood response changes due to

iTree-Hydro: Snow hydrology update for the urban forest hydrology model

Science.gov (United States)

Yang Yang; Theodore A. Endreny; David J. Nowak

2011-01-01

This article presents snow hydrology updates made to iTree-Hydro, previously called the Urban Forest Effects—Hydrology model. iTree-Hydro Version 1 was a warm climate model developed by the USDA Forest Service to provide a process-based planning tool with robust water quantity and quality predictions given data limitations common to most urban areas. Cold climate...

Contribution of local knowledge to understand socio-hydrological dynamics. Examples from a study in Senegal river valley

Science.gov (United States)

Bruckmann, Laurent

2017-04-01

In developing countries many watersheds are low monitored. However, rivers and its floodplains provides ecosystem services to societies, especially for agriculture, grazing and fishing. This uses of rivers and floodplains offer to communities an important local knowledge about hydrological dynamics. This knowledge can be useful to researchers studying ecological or hydrological processes. This presentation aims to discuss and present the interest of using qualitative data from surveys and interviews to understand relations between society and hydrology in floodplain from developing countries, but also to understand changes in hydrological dynamics. This communication is based on a PhD thesis held on from 2012 and 2016, that analyzes socio-ecological changes in the floodplain of the Senegal river floodplain following thirty years of transboundary water management. The results of this work along Senegal river valley suggest that the use of social data and qualitative study are beneficial in understanding the hydrological dynamics in two dimensions. First, it established the importance of perception of hydrological dynamics, particularly floods, on local water management and socio-agricultural trajectories. This perception of people is strictly derived from ecosystems services provided by river and its floodplain. Second, surveys have enlightened new questions concerning the hydrology of the river that are often cited by people, like a decrease of flood water fertility. This type of socio-hydrological study, combining hydrological and qualitative data, has great potential for guiding water management policies. Using local knowledge in their analyzes, researchers also legitimize river users, who are for the most part forgotten by water policies.

Modeling alpine grasslands with two integrated hydrologic models: a comparison of the different process representation in CATHY and GEOtop

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Camporese, M.; Bertoldi, G.; Bortoli, E.; Wohlfahrt, G.

2017-12-01

Integrated hydrologic surface-subsurface models (IHSSMs) are increasingly used as prediction tools to solve simultaneously states and fluxes in and between multiple terrestrial compartments (e.g., snow cover, surface water, groundwater), in an attempt to tackle environmental problems in a holistic approach. Two such models, CATHY and GEOtop, are used in this study to investigate their capabilities to reproduce hydrological processes in alpine grasslands. The two models differ significantly in the complexity of the representation of the surface energy balance and the solution of Richards equation for water flow in the variably saturated subsurface. The main goal of this research is to show how these differences in process representation can lead to different predictions of hydrologic states and fluxes, in the simulation of an experimental site located in the Venosta Valley (South Tyrol, Italy). Here, a large set of relevant hydrological data (e.g., evapotranspiration, soil moisture) has been collected, with ground and remote sensing observations. The area of interest is part of a Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) site, a mountain steep, heterogeneous slope, where the predominant land use types are meadow, pasture, and forest. The comparison between data and model predictions, as well as between simulations with the two IHSSMs, contributes to advance our understanding of the tradeoffs between different complexities in modeĺs process representation, model accuracy, and the ability to explain observed hydrological dynamics in alpine environments.

The use of distributed hydrological models for the Gard 2002 flash flood event: Analysis of associated hydrological processes

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Braud, Isabelle; Roux, Hélène; Anquetin, Sandrine; Maubourguet, Marie-Madeleine; Manus, Claire; Viallet, Pierre; Dartus, Denis

2010-11-01

SummaryThis paper presents a detailed analysis of the September 8-9, 2002 flash flood event in the Gard region (southern France) using two distributed hydrological models: CVN built within the LIQUID® hydrological platform and MARINE. The models differ in terms of spatial discretization, infiltration and water redistribution representation, and river flow transfer. MARINE can also account for subsurface lateral flow. Both models are set up using the same available information, namely a DEM and a pedology map. They are forced with high resolution radar rainfall data over a set of 18 sub-catchments ranging from 2.5 to 99 km2 and are run without calibration. To begin with, models simulations are assessed against post field estimates of the time of peak and the maximum peak discharge showing a fair agreement for both models. The results are then discussed in terms of flow dynamics, runoff coefficients and soil saturation dynamics. The contribution of the subsurface lateral flow is also quantified using the MARINE model. This analysis highlights that rainfall remains the first controlling factor of flash flood dynamics. High rainfall peak intensities are very influential of the maximum peak discharge for both models, but especially for the CVN model which has a simplified overland flow transfer. The river bed roughness also influences the peak intensity and time. Soil spatial representation is shown to have a significant role on runoff coefficients and on the spatial variability of saturation dynamics. Simulated soil saturation is found to be strongly related with soil depth and initial storage deficit maps, due to a full saturation of most of the area at the end of the event. When activated, the signature of subsurface lateral flow is also visible in the spatial patterns of soil saturation with higher values concentrating along the river network. However, the data currently available do not allow the assessment of both patterns. The paper concludes with a set of

Subdivision of Texas watersheds for hydrologic modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

2009-06-01

The purpose of this report is to present a set of findings and examples for subdivision of watersheds for hydrologic modeling. Three approaches were used to examine the impact of watershed subdivision on modeled hydrologic response: (1) An equal-area...

Delineating wetland catchments and modeling hydrologic connectivity using lidar data and aerial imagery

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Q. Wu

2017-07-01

Full Text Available In traditional watershed delineation and topographic modeling, surface depressions are generally treated as spurious features and simply removed from a digital elevation model (DEM to enforce flow continuity of water across the topographic surface to the watershed outlets. In reality, however, many depressions in the DEM are actual wetland landscape features with seasonal to permanent inundation patterning characterized by nested hierarchical structures and dynamic filling–spilling–merging surface-water hydrological processes. Differentiating and appropriately processing such ecohydrologically meaningful features remains a major technical terrain-processing challenge, particularly as high-resolution spatial data are increasingly used to support modeling and geographic analysis needs. The objectives of this study were to delineate hierarchical wetland catchments and model their hydrologic connectivity using high-resolution lidar data and aerial imagery. The graph-theory-based contour tree method was used to delineate the hierarchical wetland catchments and characterize their geometric and topological properties. Potential hydrologic connectivity between wetlands and streams were simulated using the least-cost-path algorithm. The resulting flow network delineated potential flow paths connecting wetland depressions to each other or to the river network on scales finer than those available through the National Hydrography Dataset. The results demonstrated that our proposed framework is promising for improving overland flow simulation and hydrologic connectivity analysis.

Stress testing hydrologic models using bottom-up climate change assessment

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Stephens, C.; Johnson, F.; Marshall, L. A.

2017-12-01

Bottom-up climate change assessment is a promising approach for understanding the vulnerability of a system to potential future changes. The technique has been utilised successfully in risk-based assessments of future flood severity and infrastructure vulnerability. We find that it is also an ideal tool for assessing hydrologic model performance in a changing climate. In this study, we applied bottom-up climate change to compare the performance of two different hydrologic models (an event-based and a continuous model) under increasingly severe climate change scenarios. This allowed us to diagnose likely sources of future prediction error in the two models. The climate change scenarios were based on projections for southern Australia, which indicate drier average conditions with increased extreme rainfall intensities. We found that the key weakness in using the event-based model to simulate drier future scenarios was the model's inability to dynamically account for changing antecedent conditions. This led to increased variability in model performance relative to the continuous model, which automatically accounts for the wetness of a catchment through dynamic simulation of water storages. When considering more intense future rainfall events, representation of antecedent conditions became less important than assumptions around (non)linearity in catchment response. The linear continuous model we applied may underestimate flood risk in a future climate with greater extreme rainfall intensity. In contrast with the recommendations of previous studies, this indicates that continuous simulation is not necessarily the key to robust flood modelling under climate change. By applying bottom-up climate change assessment, we were able to understand systematic changes in relative model performance under changing conditions and deduce likely sources of prediction error in the two models.

Assessment of NASA's Physiographic and Meteorological Datasets as Input to HSPF and SWAT Hydrological Models

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Alacron, Vladimir J.; Nigro, Joseph D.; McAnally, William H.; OHara, Charles G.; Engman, Edwin Ted; Toll, David

2011-01-01

This paper documents the use of simulated Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer land use/land cover (MODIS-LULC), NASA-LIS generated precipitation and evapo-transpiration (ET), and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) datasets (in conjunction with standard land use, topographical and meteorological datasets) as input to hydrological models routinely used by the watershed hydrology modeling community. The study is focused in coastal watersheds in the Mississippi Gulf Coast although one of the test cases focuses in an inland watershed located in northeastern State of Mississippi, USA. The decision support tools (DSTs) into which the NASA datasets were assimilated were the Soil Water & Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the Hydrological Simulation Program FORTRAN (HSPF). These DSTs are endorsed by several US government agencies (EPA, FEMA, USGS) for water resources management strategies. These models use physiographic and meteorological data extensively. Precipitation gages and USGS gage stations in the region were used to calibrate several HSPF and SWAT model applications. Land use and topographical datasets were swapped to assess model output sensitivities. NASA-LIS meteorological data were introduced in the calibrated model applications for simulation of watershed hydrology for a time period in which no weather data were available (1997-2006). The performance of the NASA datasets in the context of hydrological modeling was assessed through comparison of measured and model-simulated hydrographs. Overall, NASA datasets were as useful as standard land use, topographical , and meteorological datasets. Moreover, NASA datasets were used for performing analyses that the standard datasets could not made possible, e.g., introduction of land use dynamics into hydrological simulations

Development and implementation of a Variable Infiltration Capacity model of surface hydrology into the General Circulation Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lettenmaier, D.P.; Stamm, J.F.; Wood, E.F.

1993-04-01

A Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model is described for the representation of land surface hydrology in General Circulation Models (GCMs). The VIC model computes runoff as a function of the distribution of soil moisture capacity within a GCM grid cell. The major distinguishing feature of the VIC model relative to the bucket model currently used to represent the land surface in many GCMs is that it parameterizes the nonlinearity of the fraction of precipitation that infiltrates over a large area (hence the production of direct runoff) as a function of spatial average soil moisture storage, and that it models subsurface runoff between storms via a simple recession mechanism. The VIC model was incorporated into the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) GCM at R15 resolution (roughly 4.5 degrees latitude by 7.5 degrees longitude). Ten-year simulations of global climate were produced using the GFDL GCM with both VIC land surface hydrology, and, for comparison purposes, the standard bucket representation. Comparison of the ten year runs using the VIC model with those using bucket hydrology showed that for the VIC run, global average runoff increased, soil moisture decreased, evaporation decreased, land surface temperature increased, and precipitation decreased. As expected, changes in precipitation occurred primarily over the continents, especially in the northern hemisphere. Changes in the surface water balance for Africa, Australia, and South America were much less than for North American and Eurasia. Both VIC and bucket simulations of surface air temperature and precipitation were compared with gridded monthly average observation fields. These comparisons indicated that the VIC hydrology reproduced winter temperatures better, and summer temperatures worse, than the bucket model. The VIC hydrology better represented global precipitation, primarily as a result of partially reducing the upward bias in precipitation associated with the GFDL R15 bucket runs

Improved Understanding of Permafrost Controls on Hydrology in Interior Alaska by Integration of Ground-Based Geophysical Permafrost Characterization and Numerical Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

2015-05-01

freeze/thaw dynamics, geophysics, ground ice, groundwater modeling, hydrologic impacts , interior Alaska, lakes, permafrost, sub-arctic, taliks, Yukon...21  Figure 4.1.1 Location map of Beaver Meadow and Twelvemile study areas...modeling, hydrologic impacts , interior Alaska, lakes, permafrost, sub-arctic, taliks, Yukon Flats Acknowledgements We would like to

Coupling hydrological modeling and support vector regression to model hydropeaking in alpine catchments.

Science.gov (United States)

Chiogna, Gabriele; Marcolini, Giorgia; Liu, Wanying; Pérez Ciria, Teresa; Tuo, Ye

2018-08-15

Water management in the alpine region has an important impact on streamflow. In particular, hydropower production is known to cause hydropeaking i.e., sudden fluctuations in river stage caused by the release or storage of water in artificial reservoirs. Modeling hydropeaking with hydrological models, such as the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), requires knowledge of reservoir management rules. These data are often not available since they are sensitive information belonging to hydropower production companies. In this short communication, we propose to couple the results of a calibrated hydrological model with a machine learning method to reproduce hydropeaking without requiring the knowledge of the actual reservoir management operation. We trained a support vector machine (SVM) with SWAT model outputs, the day of the week and the energy price. We tested the model for the Upper Adige river basin in North-East Italy. A wavelet analysis showed that energy price has a significant influence on river discharge, and a wavelet coherence analysis demonstrated the improved performance of the SVM model in comparison to the SWAT model alone. The SVM model was also able to capture the fluctuations in streamflow caused by hydropeaking when both energy price and river discharge displayed a complex temporal dynamic. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling the Hydrological Regime of Turkana Lake (Kenya, Ethiopia) by Combining Spatially Distributed Hydrological Modeling and Remote Sensing Datasets

Science.gov (United States)

Anghileri, D.; Kaelin, A.; Peleg, N.; Fatichi, S.; Molnar, P.; Roques, C.; Longuevergne, L.; Burlando, P.

2017-12-01

Hydrological modeling in poorly gauged basins can benefit from the use of remote sensing datasets although there are challenges associated with the mismatch in spatial and temporal scales between catchment scale hydrological models and remote sensing products. We model the hydrological processes and long-term water budget of the Lake Turkana catchment, a transboundary basin between Kenya and Ethiopia, by integrating several remote sensing products into a spatially distributed and physically explicit model, Topkapi-ETH. Lake Turkana is the world largest desert lake draining a catchment of 145'500 km2. It has three main contributing rivers: the Omo river, which contributes most of the annual lake inflow, the Turkwel river, and the Kerio rivers, which contribute the remaining part. The lake levels have shown great variations in the last decades due to long-term climate fluctuations and the regulation of three reservoirs, Gibe I, II, and III, which significantly alter the hydrological seasonality. Another large reservoir is planned and may be built in the next decade, generating concerns about the fate of Lake Turkana in the long run because of this additional anthropogenic pressure and increasing evaporation driven by climate change. We consider different remote sensing datasets, i.e., TRMM-V7 for precipitation, MERRA-2 for temperature, as inputs to the spatially distributed hydrological model. We validate the simulation results with other remote sensing datasets, i.e., GRACE for total water storage anomalies, GLDAS-NOAH for soil moisture, ERA-Interim/Land for surface runoff, and TOPEX/Poseidon for satellite altimetry data. Results highlight how different remote sensing products can be integrated into a hydrological modeling framework accounting for their relative uncertainties. We also carried out simulations with the artificial reservoirs planned in the north part of the catchment and without any reservoirs, to assess their impacts on the catchment hydrological

Interactions between soil thermal and hydrological dynamics in the response of Alaska ecosystems to fire disturbance

Science.gov (United States)

Yi, Shuhua; McGuire, A. David; Harden, Jennifer; Kasischke, Eric; Manies, Kristen L.; Hinzman, Larry; Liljedahl, Anna K.; Randerson, J.; Liu, Heping; Romanovsky, Vladimir E.; Marchenko, Sergey S.; Kim, Yongwon

2009-01-01

Soil temperature and moisture are important factors that control many ecosystem processes. However, interactions between soil thermal and hydrological processes are not adequately understood in cold regions, where the frozen soil, fire disturbance, and soil drainage play important roles in controlling interactions among these processes. These interactions were investigated with a new ecosystem model framework, the dynamic organic soil version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model, that incorporates an efficient and stable numerical scheme for simulating soil thermal and hydrological dynamics within soil profiles that contain a live moss horizon, fibrous and amorphous organic horizons, and mineral soil horizons. The performance of the model was evaluated for a tundra burn site that had both preburn and postburn measurements, two black spruce fire chronosequences (representing space-for-time substitutions in well and intermediately drained conditions), and a poorly drained black spruce site. Although space-for-time substitutions present challenges in model-data comparison, the model demonstrates substantial ability in simulating the dynamics of evapotranspiration, soil temperature, active layer depth, soil moisture, and water table depth in response to both climate variability and fire disturbance. Several differences between model simulations and field measurements identified key challenges for evaluating/improving model performance that include (1) proper representation of discrepancies between air temperature and ground surface temperature; (2) minimization of precipitation biases in the driving data sets; (3) improvement of the measurement accuracy of soil moisture in surface organic horizons; and (4) proper specification of organic horizon depth/properties, and soil thermal conductivity.

Hydrologic modeling of the Columbia Plateau basalts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dove, F.H.; Cole, C.R.; Bond, F.W.; Zimmerman, D.A.

1982-09-01

The Office of Nuclear Waste Isolation (ONWI) directed the Assessment of Effectiveness of Geologic Isolation Systems (AEGIS) Program to conduct a technology demonstration of current performance assessment techniques for the Department of Energy (DOE) as applied to a nuclear waste repository in the Columbia Plateau Basalts. Hypothetical repository coordinates were selected for an actual geographical setting on the Hanford Reservation in the state of Washington. Published hydrologic and geologic data used in the analyses were gathered in 1979 or earlier. The hydrologic simulation was divided into three major parts: (1) aquifer recharge calculations, (2) a regional hydrologic model, and (3) a local hydrologic model of the Pasco Basin. The presentation discusses the regional model. An estimate of the amount of water transmitted through the groundwater system was required to bound the transmissivity values and to estimate the transmissivity distributions for the deeper basalts. The multiple layer two-dimensional Variable Thickness Transient (VTT) code was selected as appropriate for the amount of data available and for the conditions existing in the regional systems. This model uses a finite difference formulation to represent the partial differential flow equation. The regional study area as defined for the VTT model was divided into 55 by 55 square pattern with each grid 5 kilometers on a side. The regional system was modeled as a held potential surface layer and two underlying basalt layers. The regional model established the boundary conditions for the hydrologic model the Pasco Basin

Advancing the Implementation of Hydrologic Models as Web-based Applications

Science.gov (United States)

Dahal, P.; Tarboton, D. G.; Castronova, A. M.

2017-12-01

Advanced computer simulations are required to understand hydrologic phenomenon such as rainfall-runoff response, groundwater hydrology, snow hydrology, etc. Building a hydrologic model instance to simulate a watershed requires investment in data (diverse geospatial datasets such as terrain, soil) and computer resources, typically demands a wide skill set from the analyst, and the workflow involved is often difficult to reproduce. This work introduces a web-based prototype infrastructure in the form of a web application that provides researchers with easy to use access to complete hydrological modeling functionality. This includes creating the necessary geospatial and forcing data, preparing input files for a model by applying complex data preprocessing, running the model for a user defined watershed, and saving the results to a web repository. The open source Tethys Platform was used to develop the web app front-end Graphical User Interface (GUI). We used HydroDS, a webservice that provides data preparation processing capability to support backend computations used by the app. Results are saved in HydroShare, a hydrologic information system that supports the sharing of hydrologic data, model and analysis tools. The TOPographic Kinematic APproximation and Integration (TOPKAPI) model served as the example for which we developed a complete hydrologic modeling service to demonstrate the approach. The final product is a complete modeling system accessible through the web to create input files, and run the TOPKAPI hydrologic model for a watershed of interest. We are investigating similar functionality for the preparation of input to Regional Hydro-Ecological Simulation System (RHESSys). Key Words: hydrologic modeling, web services, hydrologic information system, HydroShare, HydroDS, Tethys Platform

Coupling Hydrologic and Hydrodynamic Models to Estimate PMF

Science.gov (United States)

Felder, G.; Weingartner, R.

2015-12-01

Most sophisticated probable maximum flood (PMF) estimations derive the PMF from the probable maximum precipitation (PMP) by applying deterministic hydrologic models calibrated with observed data. This method is based on the assumption that the hydrological system is stationary, meaning that the system behaviour during the calibration period or the calibration event is presumed to be the same as it is during the PMF. However, as soon as a catchment-specific threshold is reached, the system is no longer stationary. At or beyond this threshold, retention areas, new flow paths, and changing runoff processes can strongly affect downstream peak discharge. These effects can be accounted for by coupling hydrologic and hydrodynamic models, a technique that is particularly promising when the expected peak discharge may considerably exceed the observed maximum discharge. In such cases, the coupling of hydrologic and hydraulic models has the potential to significantly increase the physical plausibility of PMF estimations. This procedure ensures both that the estimated extreme peak discharge does not exceed the physical limit based on riverbed capacity and that the dampening effect of inundation processes on peak discharge is considered. Our study discusses the prospect of considering retention effects on PMF estimations by coupling hydrologic and hydrodynamic models. This method is tested by forcing PREVAH, a semi-distributed deterministic hydrological model, with randomly generated, physically plausible extreme precipitation patterns. The resulting hydrographs are then used to externally force the hydraulic model BASEMENT-ETH (riverbed in 1D, potential inundation areas in 2D). Finally, the PMF estimation results obtained using the coupled modelling approach are compared to the results obtained using ordinary hydrologic modelling.

Integrating hydrologic modeling web services with online data sharing to prepare, store, and execute models in hydrology

Science.gov (United States)

Gan, T.; Tarboton, D. G.; Dash, P. K.; Gichamo, T.; Horsburgh, J. S.

2017-12-01

Web based apps, web services and online data and model sharing technology are becoming increasingly available to support research. This promises benefits in terms of collaboration, platform independence, transparency and reproducibility of modeling workflows and results. However, challenges still exist in real application of these capabilities and the programming skills researchers need to use them. In this research we combined hydrologic modeling web services with an online data and model sharing system to develop functionality to support reproducible hydrologic modeling work. We used HydroDS, a system that provides web services for input data preparation and execution of a snowmelt model, and HydroShare, a hydrologic information system that supports the sharing of hydrologic data, model and analysis tools. To make the web services easy to use, we developed a HydroShare app (based on the Tethys platform) to serve as a browser based user interface for HydroDS. In this integration, HydroDS receives web requests from the HydroShare app to process the data and execute the model. HydroShare supports storage and sharing of the results generated by HydroDS web services. The snowmelt modeling example served as a use case to test and evaluate this approach. We show that, after the integration, users can prepare model inputs or execute the model through the web user interface of the HydroShare app without writing program code. The model input/output files and metadata describing the model instance are stored and shared in HydroShare. These files include a Python script that is automatically generated by the HydroShare app to document and reproduce the model input preparation workflow. Once stored in HydroShare, inputs and results can be shared with other users, or published so that other users can directly discover, repeat or modify the modeling work. This approach provides a collaborative environment that integrates hydrologic web services with a data and model sharing

Hydrologic restoration in a dynamic subtropical mangrove-to-marsh ecotone

Science.gov (United States)

Howard, Rebecca J.; Day, Richard H.; Krauss, Ken W.; From, Andrew S.; Allain, Larry K.; Cormier, Nicole

2017-01-01

Extensive hydrologic modifications in coastal regions across the world have occurred to support infrastructure development, altering the function of many coastal wetlands. Wetland restoration success is dependent on the existence of hydrologic regimes that support development of appropriate soils and the growth and persistence of wetland vegetation. In Florida, United States, the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Program (CERP) seeks to restore, protect, and preserve water resources of the greater Everglades region. Herein we describe vegetation dynamics in a mangrove-to-marsh ecotone within the impact area of a CERP hydrologic restoration project currently under development. Vegetation communities are also described for a similar area outside the project area. We found that vegetation shifts within the impact area occurred over a 7-year period; cover of herbaceous species varied by location, and an 88% increase in the total number of mangrove seedlings was documented. We attribute these shifts to the existing modified hydrologic regime, which is characterized by a low volume of freshwater sheet flow compared with historical conditions (i.e. before modification), as well as increased tidal influence. We also identified a significant trend of decreasing soil surface elevation at the impact area. The CERP restoration project is designed to increase freshwater sheet flow to the impact area. Information from our study characterizing existing vegetation dynamics prior to implementation of the restoration project is required to allow documentation of long-term project effects on plant community composition and structure within a framework of background variation, thereby allowing assessment of the project's success in restoring critical ecosystem functions.

On the importance of measurement error correlations in data assimilation for integrated hydrological models

Science.gov (United States)

Camporese, Matteo; Botto, Anna

2017-04-01

Data assimilation is becoming increasingly popular in hydrological and earth system modeling, as it allows us to integrate multisource observation data in modeling predictions and, in doing so, to reduce uncertainty. For this reason, data assimilation has been recently the focus of much attention also for physically-based integrated hydrological models, whereby multiple terrestrial compartments (e.g., snow cover, surface water, groundwater) are solved simultaneously, in an attempt to tackle environmental problems in a holistic approach. Recent examples include the joint assimilation of water table, soil moisture, and river discharge measurements in catchment models of coupled surface-subsurface flow using the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). One of the typical assumptions in these studies is that the measurement errors are uncorrelated, whereas in certain situations it is reasonable to believe that some degree of correlation occurs, due for example to the fact that a pair of sensors share the same soil type. The goal of this study is to show if and how the measurement error correlations between different observation data play a significant role on assimilation results in a real-world application of an integrated hydrological model. The model CATHY (CATchment HYdrology) is applied to reproduce the hydrological dynamics observed in an experimental hillslope. The physical model, located in the Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering of the University of Padova (Italy), consists of a reinforced concrete box containing a soil prism with maximum height of 3.5 m, length of 6 m, and width of 2 m. The hillslope is equipped with sensors to monitor the pressure head and soil moisture responses to a series of generated rainfall events applied onto a 60 cm thick sand layer overlying a sandy clay soil. The measurement network is completed by two tipping bucket flow gages to measure the two components (subsurface and surface) of the outflow. By collecting

Multi-model analysis in hydrological prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Lanthier, M.; Arsenault, R.; Brissette, F.

2017-12-01

Hydrologic modelling, by nature, is a simplification of the real-world hydrologic system. Therefore ensemble hydrological predictions thus obtained do not present the full range of possible streamflow outcomes, thereby producing ensembles which demonstrate errors in variance such as under-dispersion. Past studies show that lumped models used in prediction mode can return satisfactory results, especially when there is not enough information available on the watershed to run a distributed model. But all lumped models greatly simplify the complex processes of the hydrologic cycle. To generate more spread in the hydrologic ensemble predictions, multi-model ensembles have been considered. In this study, the aim is to propose and analyse a method that gives an ensemble streamflow prediction that properly represents the forecast probabilities and reduced ensemble bias. To achieve this, three simple lumped models are used to generate an ensemble. These will also be combined using multi-model averaging techniques, which generally generate a more accurate hydrogram than the best of the individual models in simulation mode. This new predictive combined hydrogram is added to the ensemble, thus creating a large ensemble which may improve the variability while also improving the ensemble mean bias. The quality of the predictions is then assessed on different periods: 2 weeks, 1 month, 3 months and 6 months using a PIT Histogram of the percentiles of the real observation volumes with respect to the volumes of the ensemble members. Initially, the models were run using historical weather data to generate synthetic flows. This worked for individual models, but not for the multi-model and for the large ensemble. Consequently, by performing data assimilation at each prediction period and thus adjusting the initial states of the models, the PIT Histogram could be constructed using the observed flows while allowing the use of the multi-model predictions. The under-dispersion has been

Cyberinfrastructure to Support Collaborative and Reproducible Computational Hydrologic Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Goodall, J. L.; Castronova, A. M.; Bandaragoda, C.; Morsy, M. M.; Sadler, J. M.; Essawy, B.; Tarboton, D. G.; Malik, T.; Nijssen, B.; Clark, M. P.; Liu, Y.; Wang, S. W.

2017-12-01

Creating cyberinfrastructure to support reproducibility of computational hydrologic models is an important research challenge. Addressing this challenge requires open and reusable code and data with machine and human readable metadata, organized in ways that allow others to replicate results and verify published findings. Specific digital objects that must be tracked for reproducible computational hydrologic modeling include (1) raw initial datasets, (2) data processing scripts used to clean and organize the data, (3) processed model inputs, (4) model results, and (5) the model code with an itemization of all software dependencies and computational requirements. HydroShare is a cyberinfrastructure under active development designed to help users store, share, and publish digital research products in order to improve reproducibility in computational hydrology, with an architecture supporting hydrologic-specific resource metadata. Researchers can upload data required for modeling, add hydrology-specific metadata to these resources, and use the data directly within HydroShare.org for collaborative modeling using tools like CyberGIS, Sciunit-CLI, and JupyterHub that have been integrated with HydroShare to run models using notebooks, Docker containers, and cloud resources. Current research aims to implement the Structure For Unifying Multiple Modeling Alternatives (SUMMA) hydrologic model within HydroShare to support hypothesis-driven hydrologic modeling while also taking advantage of the HydroShare cyberinfrastructure. The goal of this integration is to create the cyberinfrastructure that supports hypothesis-driven model experimentation, education, and training efforts by lowering barriers to entry, reducing the time spent on informatics technology and software development, and supporting collaborative research within and across research groups.

A prototype framework for models of socio-hydrology: identification of key feedback loops and parameterisation approach

Science.gov (United States)

Elshafei, Y.; Sivapalan, M.; Tonts, M.; Hipsey, M. R.

2014-06-01

It is increasingly acknowledged that, in order to sustainably manage global freshwater resources, it is critical that we better understand the nature of human-hydrology interactions at the broader catchment system scale. Yet to date, a generic conceptual framework for building models of catchment systems that include adequate representation of socioeconomic systems - and the dynamic feedbacks between human and natural systems - has remained elusive. In an attempt to work towards such a model, this paper outlines a generic framework for models of socio-hydrology applicable to agricultural catchments, made up of six key components that combine to form the coupled system dynamics: namely, catchment hydrology, population, economics, environment, socioeconomic sensitivity and collective response. The conceptual framework posits two novel constructs: (i) a composite socioeconomic driving variable, termed the Community Sensitivity state variable, which seeks to capture the perceived level of threat to a community's quality of life, and acts as a key link tying together one of the fundamental feedback loops of the coupled system, and (ii) a Behavioural Response variable as the observable feedback mechanism, which reflects land and water management decisions relevant to the hydrological context. The framework makes a further contribution through the introduction of three macro-scale parameters that enable it to normalise for differences in climate, socioeconomic and political gradients across study sites. In this way, the framework provides for both macro-scale contextual parameters, which allow for comparative studies to be undertaken, and catchment-specific conditions, by way of tailored "closure relationships", in order to ensure that site-specific and application-specific contexts of socio-hydrologic problems can be accommodated. To demonstrate how such a framework would be applied, two socio-hydrological case studies, taken from the Australian experience, are presented

Multisource data assimilation in a Richards equation-based integrated hydrological model: a real-world application to an experimental hillslope

Science.gov (United States)

Camporese, M.; Botto, A.

2017-12-01

Data assimilation is becoming increasingly popular in hydrological and earth system modeling, as it allows for direct integration of multisource observation data in modeling predictions and uncertainty reduction. For this reason, data assimilation has been recently the focus of much attention also for integrated surface-subsurface hydrological models, whereby multiple terrestrial compartments (e.g., snow cover, surface water, groundwater) are solved simultaneously, in an attempt to tackle environmental problems in a holistic approach. Recent examples include the joint assimilation of water table, soil moisture, and river discharge measurements in catchment models of coupled surface-subsurface flow using the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). Although the EnKF has been specifically developed to deal with nonlinear models, integrated hydrological models based on the Richards equation still represent a challenge, due to strong nonlinearities that may significantly affect the filter performance. Thus, more studies are needed to investigate the capabilities of EnKF to correct the system state and identify parameters in cases where the unsaturated zone dynamics are dominant. Here, the model CATHY (CATchment HYdrology) is applied to reproduce the hydrological dynamics observed in an experimental hillslope, equipped with tensiometers, water content reflectometer probes, and tipping bucket flow gages to monitor the hillslope response to a series of artificial rainfall events. We assimilate pressure head, soil moisture, and subsurface outflow with EnKF in a number of assimilation scenarios and discuss the challenges, issues, and tradeoffs arising from the assimilation of multisource data in a real-world test case, with particular focus on the capability of DA to update the subsurface parameters.

Dynamic plant uptake modelling and mass flux estimation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rein, Arno; Bauer-Gottwein, Peter; Trapp, Stefan

2011-01-01

in environmental systems at different scales. Feedback mechanisms between plants and hydrological systems can play an important role. However, they have received little attention to date. Here, a new model concept for dynamic plant uptake models applying analytical matrix solutions is presented, which can...

Revisiting an interdisciplinary hydrological modelling project. A socio-hydrology (?) example from the early 2000s

Science.gov (United States)

Seidl, Roman; Barthel, Roland

2016-04-01

Interdisciplinary scientific and societal knowledge plays an increasingly important role in global change research. Also, in the field of water resources interdisciplinarity as well as cooperation with stakeholders from outside academia have been recognized as important. In this contribution, we revisit an integrated regional modelling system (DANUBIA), which was developed by an interdisciplinary team of researchers and relied on stakeholder participation in the framework of the GLOWA-Danube project from 2001 to 2011 (Mauser and Prasch 2016). As the model was developed before the current increase in literature on participatory modelling and interdisciplinarity, we ask how a socio-hydrology approach would have helped and in what way it would have made the work different. The present contribution firstly presents the interdisciplinary concept of DANUBIA, mainly with focus on the integration of human behaviour in a spatially explicit, process-based numerical modelling system (Roland Barthel, Janisch, Schwarz, Trifkovic, Nickel, Schulz, and Mauser 2008; R. Barthel, Nickel, Meleg, Trifkovic, and Braun 2005). Secondly, we compare the approaches to interdisciplinarity in GLOWA-Danube with concepts and ideas presented by socio-hydrology. Thirdly, we frame DANUBIA and a review of key literature on socio-hydrology in the context of a survey among hydrologists (N = 184). This discussion is used to highlight gaps and opportunities of the socio-hydrology approach. We show that the interdisciplinary aspect of the project and the participatory process of stakeholder integration in DANUBIA were not entirely successful. However, important insights were gained and important lessons were learnt. Against the background of these experiences we feel that in its current state, socio-hydrology is still lacking a plan for knowledge integration. Moreover, we consider necessary that socio-hydrology takes into account the lessons learnt from these earlier examples of knowledge integration

Development of a hybrid 3-D hydrological model to simulate hillslopes and the regional unconfined aquifer system in Earth system models

Science.gov (United States)

Hazenberg, P.; Broxton, P. D.; Brunke, M.; Gochis, D.; Niu, G. Y.; Pelletier, J. D.; Troch, P. A. A.; Zeng, X.

2015-12-01

The terrestrial hydrological system, including surface and subsurface water, is an essential component of the Earth's climate system. Over the past few decades, land surface modelers have built one-dimensional (1D) models resolving the vertical flow of water through the soil column for use in Earth system models (ESMs). These models generally have a relatively coarse model grid size (~25-100 km) and only account for sub-grid lateral hydrological variations using simple parameterization schemes. At the same time, hydrologists have developed detailed high-resolution (~0.1-10 km grid size) three dimensional (3D) models and showed the importance of accounting for the vertical and lateral redistribution of surface and subsurface water on soil moisture, the surface energy balance and ecosystem dynamics on these smaller scales. However, computational constraints have limited the implementation of the high-resolution models for continental and global scale applications. The current work presents a hybrid-3D hydrological approach is presented, where the 1D vertical soil column model (available in many ESMs) is coupled with a high-resolution lateral flow model (h2D) to simulate subsurface flow and overland flow. H2D accounts for both local-scale hillslope and regional-scale unconfined aquifer responses (i.e. riparian zone and wetlands). This approach was shown to give comparable results as those obtained by an explicit 3D Richards model for the subsurface, but improves runtime efficiency considerably. The h3D approach is implemented for the Delaware river basin, where Noah-MP land surface model (LSM) is used to calculated vertical energy and water exchanges with the atmosphere using a 10km grid resolution. Noah-MP was coupled within the WRF-Hydro infrastructure with the lateral 1km grid resolution h2D model, for which the average depth-to-bedrock, hillslope width function and soil parameters were estimated from digital datasets. The ability of this h3D approach to simulate

How can hydrological modeling help to understand process dynamics in sparsely gauged tropical regions - case study Mata Âtlantica, Brazil

Science.gov (United States)

Künne, Annika; Penedo, Santiago; Schuler, Azeneth; Bardy Prado, Rachel; Kralisch, Sven; Flügel, Wolfgang-Albert

2015-04-01

To ensure long-term water security for domestic, agricultural and industrial use in the emerging country of Brazil with fast-growing markets and technologies, understanding of catchment hydrology is essential. Yet, hydrological analysis, high resolution temporal and spatial monitoring and reliable meteo-hydrological data are insufficient to fully understand hydrological processes in the region and to predict future trends. Physically based hydrological modeling can help to expose uncertainties of measured data, predict future trends and contribute to physical understanding about the watershed. The Brazilian Atlantic rainforest (Mata Atlântica) is one of the world's biodiversity hotspots. After the Portuguese colonization, its original expansion of 1.5 million km² was reduced to only 7% of the former area. Due to forest fragmentation, overexploitation and soil degradation, pressure on water resources in the region has significantly increased. Climatically, the region possesses distinctive wet and dry periods. While extreme precipitation events in the rainy season cause floods and landslides, dry periods can lead to water shortages, especially in the agricultural and domestic supply sectors. To ensure both, the protection of the remnants of Atlantic rainforest biome as well as water supply, a hydrological understanding of this sparsely gauged region is essential. We will present hydrological models of two meso- to large-scale catchments (Rio Macacu and Rio Dois Rios) within the Mata Âtlantica in the state of Rio de Janeiro. The results show how physically based models can contribute to hydrological system understanding within the region and answer what-if scenarios, supporting regional planners and decision makers in integrated water resources management.

The relation between geometry, hydrology and stability of complex hillslopes examined using low-dimensional hydrological models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Talebi, A.

2008-01-01

Key words: Hillslope geometry, Hillslope hydrology, Hillslope stability, Complex hillslopes, Modeling shallow landslides, HSB model, HSB-SM model.

The hydrologic response of a hillslope to rainfall involves a complex, transient saturated-unsaturated interaction that usually leads to a

Applying Hillslope Hydrology to Bridge between Ecosystem and Grid-Scale Processes within an Earth System Model

Science.gov (United States)

Subin, Z. M.; Sulman, B. N.; Malyshev, S.; Shevliakova, E.

2013-12-01

Soil moisture is a crucial control on surface energy fluxes, vegetation properties, and soil carbon cycling. Its interactions with ecosystem processes are highly nonlinear across a large range, as both drought stress and anoxia can impede vegetation and microbial growth. Earth System Models (ESMs) generally only represent an average soil-moisture state in grid cells at scales of 50-200 km, and as a result are not able to adequately represent the effects of subgrid heterogeneity in soil moisture, especially in regions with large wetland areas. We addressed this deficiency by developing the first ESM-coupled subgrid hillslope-hydrological model, TiHy (Tiled-hillslope Hydrology), embedded within the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) land model. In each grid cell, one or more representative hillslope geometries are discretized into land model tiles along an upland-to-lowland gradient. These geometries represent ~1 km hillslope-scale hydrological features and allow for flexible representation of hillslope profile and plan shapes, in addition to variation of subsurface properties among or within hillslopes. Each tile (which may represent ~100 m along the hillslope) has its own surface fluxes, vegetation state, and vertically-resolved state variables for soil physics and biogeochemistry. Resolution of water state in deep layers (~200 m) down to bedrock allows for physical integration of groundwater transport with unsaturated overlying dynamics. Multiple tiles can also co-exist at the same vertical position along the hillslope, allowing the simulation of ecosystem heterogeneity due to disturbance. The hydrological model is coupled to the vertically-resolved Carbon, Organisms, Respiration, and Protection in the Soil Environment (CORPSE) model, which captures non-linearity resulting from interactions between vertically-heterogeneous soil carbon and water profiles. We present comparisons of simulated water table depth to observations. We examine sensitivities to

Macroscale hydrologic modeling of ecologically relevant flow metrics

Science.gov (United States)

Wenger, Seth J.; Luce, Charles H.; Hamlet, Alan F.; Isaak, Daniel J.; Neville, Helen M.

2010-09-01

Stream hydrology strongly affects the structure of aquatic communities. Changes to air temperature and precipitation driven by increased greenhouse gas concentrations are shifting timing and volume of streamflows potentially affecting these communities. The variable infiltration capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrologic model has been employed at regional scales to describe and forecast hydrologic changes but has been calibrated and applied mainly to large rivers. An important question is how well VIC runoff simulations serve to answer questions about hydrologic changes in smaller streams, which are important habitat for many fish species. To answer this question, we aggregated gridded VIC outputs within the drainage basins of 55 streamflow gages in the Pacific Northwest United States and compared modeled hydrographs and summary metrics to observations. For most streams, several ecologically relevant aspects of the hydrologic regime were accurately modeled, including center of flow timing, mean annual and summer flows and frequency of winter floods. Frequencies of high and low flows in the summer were not well predicted, however. Predictions were worse for sites with strong groundwater influence, and some sites showed errors that may result from limitations in the forcing climate data. Higher resolution (1/16th degree) modeling provided small improvements over lower resolution (1/8th degree). Despite some limitations, the VIC model appears capable of representing several ecologically relevant hydrologic characteristics in streams, making it a useful tool for understanding the effects of hydrology in delimiting species distributions and predicting the potential effects of climate shifts on aquatic organisms.

Vegetation root zone storage and rooting depth, derived from local calibration of a global hydrological model

Science.gov (United States)

van der Ent, R.; Van Beek, R.; Sutanudjaja, E.; Wang-Erlandsson, L.; Hessels, T.; Bastiaanssen, W.; Bierkens, M. F.

2017-12-01

The storage and dynamics of water in the root zone control many important hydrological processes such as saturation excess overland flow, interflow, recharge, capillary rise, soil evaporation and transpiration. These processes are parameterized in hydrological models or land-surface schemes and the effect on runoff prediction can be large. Root zone parameters in global hydrological models are very uncertain as they cannot be measured directly at the scale on which these models operate. In this paper we calibrate the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB using a state-of-the-art ensemble of evaporation fields derived by solving the energy balance for satellite observations. We focus our calibration on the root zone parameters of PCR-GLOBWB and derive spatial patterns of maximum root zone storage. We find these patterns to correspond well with previous research. The parameterization of our model allows for the conversion of maximum root zone storage to root zone depth and we find that these correspond quite well to the point observations where available. We conclude that climate and soil type should be taken into account when regionalizing measured root depth for a certain vegetation type. We equally find that using evaporation rather than discharge better allows for local adjustment of root zone parameters within a basin and thus provides orthogonal data to diagnose and optimize hydrological models and land surface schemes.

Quantifying effects of hydrological and water quality disturbances on fish with food-web modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Changsen; Zhang, Yuan; Yang, Shengtian; Xiang, Hua; Sun, Ying; Yang, Zengyuan; Yu, Qiang; Lim, Richard P.

2018-05-01

Accurately delineating the effects of hydrological and water quality habitat factors on the aquatic biota will significantly assist the management of water resources and restoration of river ecosystems. However, current models fail to comprehensively consider the effects of multiple habitat factors on the development of fish species. In this study, a dynamic framework for river ecosystems was set up to explore the effects of multiple habitat factors in terms of hydrology and water quality on the fish community in rivers. To achieve this the biomechanical forms of the relationships between hydrology, water quality, and aquatic organisms were determined. The developing processes of the food web without external disturbance were simulated by 208 models, constructed using Ecopath With Ecosim (EWE). These models were then used to analyze changes in biomass (ΔB) of two representative fish species, Opsariichthys bidens and Carassius auratus, which are widely distributed in Asia, and thus have attracted the attention of scholars and stakeholders, due to the consequence of habitat alteration. Results showed that the relationship between the changes in fish biomass and key habitat factors can be expressed in a unified form. T-tests for the unified form revealed that the means of the two data sets of simulated and observed ΔB for these two fish species (O. bidens and C. auratus) were equal at the significance level of 5%. Compared with other ecological dynamic models, our framework includes theories that are easy to understand and has modest requirements for assembly and scientific expertise. Moreover, this framework can objectively assess the influence of hydrological and water quality variance on aquatic biota with simpler theory and little expertise. Therefore, it is easy to be put into practice and can provide a scientific support for decisions in ecological restoration made by river administrators and stakeholders across the world.

Improved Hydrology over Peatlands in a Global Land Modeling System

Science.gov (United States)

Bechtold, M.; Delannoy, G.; Reichle, R.; Koster, R.; Mahanama, S.; Roose, Dirk

2018-01-01

Peatlands of the Northern Hemisphere represent an important carbon pool that mainly accumulated since the last ice age under permanently wet conditions in specific geological and climatic settings. The carbon balance of peatlands is closely coupled to water table dynamics. Consequently, the future carbon balance over peatlands is strongly dependent on how hydrology in peatlands will react to changing boundary conditions, e.g. due to climate change or regional water level drawdown of connected aquifers or streams. Global land surface modeling over organic-rich regions can provide valuable global-scale insights on where and how peatlands are in transition due to changing boundary conditions. However, the current global land surface models are not able to reproduce typical hydrological dynamics in peatlands well. We implemented specific structural and parametric changes to account for key hydrological characteristics of peatlands into NASA's GEOS-5 Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM, Koster et al. 2000). The main modifications pertain to the modeling of partial inundation, and the definition of peatland-specific runoff and evapotranspiration schemes. We ran a set of simulations on a high performance cluster using different CLSM configurations and validated the results with a newly compiled global in-situ dataset of water table depths in peatlands. The results demonstrate that an update of soil hydraulic properties for peat soils alone does not improve the performance of CLSM over peatlands. However, structural model changes for peatlands are able to improve the skill metrics for water table depth. The validation results for the water table depth indicate a reduction of the bias from 2.5 to 0.2 m, and an improvement of the temporal correlation coefficient from 0.5 to 0.65, and from 0.4 to 0.55 for the anomalies. Our validation data set includes both bogs (rain-fed) and fens (ground and/or surface water influence) and reveals that the metrics improved less for fens. In

Advancing Collaboration through Hydrologic Data and Model Sharing

Science.gov (United States)

Tarboton, D. G.; Idaszak, R.; Horsburgh, J. S.; Ames, D. P.; Goodall, J. L.; Band, L. E.; Merwade, V.; Couch, A.; Hooper, R. P.; Maidment, D. R.; Dash, P. K.; Stealey, M.; Yi, H.; Gan, T.; Castronova, A. M.; Miles, B.; Li, Z.; Morsy, M. M.

2015-12-01

HydroShare is an online, collaborative system for open sharing of hydrologic data, analytical tools, and models. It supports the sharing of and collaboration around "resources" which are defined primarily by standardized metadata, content data models for each resource type, and an overarching resource data model based on the Open Archives Initiative's Object Reuse and Exchange (OAI-ORE) standard and a hierarchical file packaging system called "BagIt". HydroShare expands the data sharing capability of the CUAHSI Hydrologic Information System by broadening the classes of data accommodated to include geospatial and multidimensional space-time datasets commonly used in hydrology. HydroShare also includes new capability for sharing models, model components, and analytical tools and will take advantage of emerging social media functionality to enhance information about and collaboration around hydrologic data and models. It also supports web services and server/cloud based computation operating on resources for the execution of hydrologic models and analysis and visualization of hydrologic data. HydroShare uses iRODS as a network file system for underlying storage of datasets and models. Collaboration is enabled by casting datasets and models as "social objects". Social functions include both private and public sharing, formation of collaborative groups of users, and value-added annotation of shared datasets and models. The HydroShare web interface and social media functions were developed using the Django web application framework coupled to iRODS. Data visualization and analysis is supported through the Tethys Platform web GIS software stack. Links to external systems are supported by RESTful web service interfaces to HydroShare's content. This presentation will introduce the HydroShare functionality developed to date and describe ongoing development of functionality to support collaboration and integration of data and models.

Integrated hydrological modelling of a managed coastal Mediterranean wetland (Rhone delta, France: initial calibration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. Chauvelon

2003-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a model of a heavily managed coastal Mediterranean wetland. The hydrosystem studied , called ``Ile de Camargue', is the central part of the Rhone river delta. It comprises flat agricultural drainage basins, marshes, and shallow brackish lagoons whose connection to the sea is managed. This hydrosystem is subject to strong natural hydrological variability due to the combination of a Mediterranean climate and the artificial hydrological regime imposed by flooded rice cultivation. To quantify the hydrological balance at different spatial and temporal scales, a simplified model is developed — including the basin and the lagoons — using a time step that enables the temporal dynamic to be reproduced that is adapted to data availability. This modelling task takes into account the functioning of the natural and anthropogenic components of the hydrosystem. A conceptual approach is used for modelling drainage from the catchment, using a GIS to estimate water input for rice irrigation. The lagoon system is modelled using a two-dimensional finite element hydrodynamic model. Simulated results from the hydrodynamic model run under various hydro-climatic forcing conditions (water level, wind speed and direction, sea connection are used to calculate hydraulic exchanges between lagoon sub units considered as boxes. Finally, the HIC ('Hydrologie de l’Ile de Camargue' conceptual model is applied to simulate the water inputs and exchanges between the different units, together with the salt balance in the hydrosystem during a calibration period. Keywords: water management,conceptual hydrological model, hydrodynamic model, box model, GIS, Rhone delta, Camargue.

Publishing and sharing of hydrologic models through WaterHUB

Science.gov (United States)

Merwade, V.; Ruddell, B. L.; Song, C.; Zhao, L.; Kim, J.; Assi, A.

2011-12-01

Most hydrologists use hydrologic models to simulate the hydrologic processes to understand hydrologic pathways and fluxes for research, decision making and engineering design. Once these tasks are complete including publication of results, the models generally are not published or made available to the public for further use and improvement. Although publication or sharing of models is not required for journal publications, sharing of models may open doors for new collaborations, and avoids duplication of efforts if other researchers are interested in simulating a particular watershed for which a model already exists. For researchers, who are interested in sharing models, there are limited avenues to publishing their models to the wider community. Towards filling this gap, a prototype cyberinfrastructure (CI), called WaterHUB, is developed for sharing hydrologic data and modeling tools in an interactive environment. To test the utility of WaterHUB for sharing hydrologic models, a system to publish and share SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) is developed. Users can utilize WaterHUB to search and download existing SWAT models, and also upload new SWAT models. Metadata such as the name of the watershed, name of the person or agency who developed the model, simulation period, time step, and list of calibrated parameters also published with individual model.

The use of remotely sensed soil moisture data in large-scale models of the hydrological cycle

Science.gov (United States)

Salomonson, V. V.; Gurney, R. J.; Schmugge, T. J.

1985-01-01

Manabe (1982) has reviewed numerical simulations of the atmosphere which provided a framework within which an examination of the dynamics of the hydrological cycle could be conducted. It was found that the climate is sensitive to soil moisture variability in space and time. The challenge arises now to improve the observations of soil moisture so as to provide up-dated boundary condition inputs to large scale models including the hydrological cycle. Attention is given to details regarding the significance of understanding soil moisture variations, soil moisture estimation using remote sensing, and energy and moisture balance modeling.

PATHS groundwater hydrologic model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nelson, R.W.; Schur, J.A.

1980-04-01

A preliminary evaluation capability for two-dimensional groundwater pollution problems was developed as part of the Transport Modeling Task for the Waste Isolation Safety Assessment Program (WISAP). Our approach was to use the data limitations as a guide in setting the level of modeling detail. PATHS Groundwater Hydrologic Model is the first level (simplest) idealized hybrid analytical/numerical model for two-dimensional, saturated groundwater flow and single component transport; homogeneous geology. This document consists of the description of the PATHS groundwater hydrologic model. The preliminary evaluation capability prepared for WISAP, including the enhancements that were made because of the authors' experience using the earlier capability is described. Appendixes A through D supplement the report as follows: complete derivations of the background equations are provided in Appendix A. Appendix B is a comprehensive set of instructions for users of PATHS. It is written for users who have little or no experience with computers. Appendix C is for the programmer. It contains information on how input parameters are passed between programs in the system. It also contains program listings and test case listing. Appendix D is a definition of terms.

Mathematical modelling of fracture hydrology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Herbert, A.W.; Hodgkinson, D.P.; Lever, D.A.; Robinson, P.C.; Rae, J.

1985-06-01

This report summarises the work performed between January 1983 and December 1984 for the CEC/DOE contract 'Mathematical Modelling of Fracture Hydrology', under the following headings: 1) Statistical fracture network modelling, 2) Continuum models of flow and transport, 3) Simplified models, 4) Analysis of laboratory experiments and 5) Analysis of field experiments. (author)

A distributed eco-hydrological model and its application

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zong-xue Xu

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Eco-hydrological processes in arid areas are the focus of many hydrological and water resources studies. However, the hydrological cycle and the ecological system have usually been considered separately in most previous studies, and the correlation between the two has not been fully understood. Interdisciplinary research on eco-hydrological processes using multidisciplinary knowledge has been insufficient. In order to quantitatively analyze and evaluate the interaction between the ecosystem and the hydrological cycle, a new kind of eco-hydrological model, the ecology module for a grid-based integrated surface and groundwater model (Eco-GISMOD, is proposed with a two-way coupling approach, which combines the ecological model (EPIC and hydrological model (GISMOD by considering water exchange in the soil layer. Water interaction between different soil layers is simply described through a generalized physical process in various situations. A special method was used to simulate the water exchange between plants and the soil layer, taking into account precipitation, evapotranspiration, infiltration, soil water replenishment, and root water uptake. In order to evaluate the system performance, the Heihe River Basin in northwestern China was selected for a case study. The results show that forests and crops were generally growing well with sufficient water supply, but water shortages, especially in the summer, inhibited the growth of grass and caused grass degradation. This demonstrates that water requirements and water consumption for different kinds of vegetation can be estimated by considering the water-supply rules of Eco-GISMOD, which will be helpful for the planning and management of water resources in the future.

Blueprint for a coupled model of sedimentology, hydrology, and hydrogeology in streambeds

Science.gov (United States)

Partington, Daniel; Therrien, Rene; Simmons, Craig T.; Brunner, Philip

2017-06-01

The streambed constitutes the physical interface between the surface and the subsurface of a stream. Across all spatial scales, the physical properties of the streambed control surface water-groundwater interactions. Continuous alteration of streambed properties such as topography or hydraulic conductivity occurs through erosion and sedimentation processes. Recent studies from the fields of ecology, hydrogeology, and sedimentology provide field evidence that sedimentological processes themselves can be heavily influenced by surface water-groundwater interactions, giving rise to complex feedback mechanisms between sedimentology, hydrology, and hydrogeology. More explicitly, surface water-groundwater exchanges play a significant role in the deposition of fine sediments, which in turn modify the hydraulic properties of the streambed. We explore these feedback mechanisms and critically review the extent of current interaction between the different disciplines. We identify opportunities to improve current modeling practices. For example, hydrogeological models treat the streambed as a static rather than a dynamic entity, while sedimentological models do not account for critical catchment processes such as surface water-groundwater exchange. We propose a blueprint for a new modeling framework that bridges the conceptual gaps between sedimentology, hydrogeology, and hydrology. Specifically, this blueprint (1) fully integrates surface-subsurface flows with erosion, transport, and deposition of sediments and (2) accounts for the dynamic changes in surface elevation and hydraulic conductivity of the streambed. Finally, we discuss the opportunities for new research within the coupled framework.

Gsflow-py: An integrated hydrologic model development tool

Science.gov (United States)

Gardner, M.; Niswonger, R. G.; Morton, C.; Henson, W.; Huntington, J. L.

2017-12-01

Integrated hydrologic modeling encompasses a vast number of processes and specifications, variable in time and space, and development of model datasets can be arduous. Model input construction techniques have not been formalized or made easily reproducible. Creating the input files for integrated hydrologic models (IHM) requires complex GIS processing of raster and vector datasets from various sources. Developing stream network topology that is consistent with the model resolution digital elevation model is important for robust simulation of surface water and groundwater exchanges. Distribution of meteorologic parameters over the model domain is difficult in complex terrain at the model resolution scale, but is necessary to drive realistic simulations. Historically, development of input data for IHM models has required extensive GIS and computer programming expertise which has restricted the use of IHMs to research groups with available financial, human, and technical resources. Here we present a series of Python scripts that provide a formalized technique for the parameterization and development of integrated hydrologic model inputs for GSFLOW. With some modifications, this process could be applied to any regular grid hydrologic model. This Python toolkit automates many of the necessary and laborious processes of parameterization, including stream network development and cascade routing, land coverages, and meteorological distribution over the model domain.

Integrated climate and hydrology modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl

To ensure optimal management and sustainable strategies for water resources, infrastructures, food production and ecosystems there is a need for an improved understanding of feedback and interaction mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface. This is especially true in light of expected...... global warming and increased frequency of extreme events. The skill in developing projections of both the present and future climate depends essentially on the ability to numerically simulate the processes of atmospheric circulation, hydrology, energy and ecology. Previous modelling efforts of climate...... and hydrology models to more directly include the interaction between the atmosphere and the land surface. The present PhD study is motivated by an ambition of developing and applying a modelling tool capable of including the interaction and feedback mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface...

Incorporating human-water dynamics in a hyper-resolution land surface model

Science.gov (United States)

Vergopolan, N.; Chaney, N.; Wanders, N.; Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.

2017-12-01

The increasing demand for water, energy, and food is leading to unsustainable groundwater and surface water exploitation. As a result, the human interactions with the environment, through alteration of land and water resources dynamics, need to be reflected in hydrologic and land surface models (LSMs). Advancements in representing human-water dynamics still leave challenges related to the lack of water use data, water allocation algorithms, and modeling scales. This leads to an over-simplistic representation of human water use in large-scale models; this is in turn leads to an inability to capture extreme events signatures and to provide reliable information at stakeholder-level spatial scales. The emergence of hyper-resolution models allows one to address these challenges by simulating the hydrological processes and interactions with the human impacts at field scales. We integrated human-water dynamics into HydroBlocks - a hyper-resolution, field-scale resolving LSM. HydroBlocks explicitly solves the field-scale spatial heterogeneity of land surface processes through interacting hydrologic response units (HRUs); and its HRU-based model parallelization allows computationally efficient long-term simulations as well as ensemble predictions. The implemented human-water dynamics include groundwater and surface water abstraction to meet agricultural, domestic and industrial water demands. Furthermore, a supply-demand water allocation scheme based on relative costs helps to determine sectoral water use requirements and tradeoffs. A set of HydroBlocks simulations over the Midwest United States (daily, at 30-m spatial resolution for 30 years) are used to quantify the irrigation impacts on water availability. The model captures large reductions in total soil moisture and water table levels, as well as spatiotemporal changes in evapotranspiration and runoff peaks, with their intensity related to the adopted water management strategy. By incorporating human-water dynamics in

Hydrological models for environmental management

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Bolgov, Mikhail V

2002-01-01

.... Stochastic modelling and forecasting cannot at present adequately represent the characteristics of hydrological regimes, nor analyze the influence of water on processes that arise in biological...

Spatial pattern evaluation of a calibrated national hydrological model - a remote-sensing-based diagnostic approach

Science.gov (United States)

Mendiguren, Gorka; Koch, Julian; Stisen, Simon

2017-11-01

Distributed hydrological models are traditionally evaluated against discharge stations, emphasizing the temporal and neglecting the spatial component of a model. The present study widens the traditional paradigm by highlighting spatial patterns of evapotranspiration (ET), a key variable at the land-atmosphere interface, obtained from two different approaches at the national scale of Denmark. The first approach is based on a national water resources model (DK-model), using the MIKE-SHE model code, and the second approach utilizes a two-source energy balance model (TSEB) driven mainly by satellite remote sensing data. Ideally, the hydrological model simulation and remote-sensing-based approach should present similar spatial patterns and driving mechanisms of ET. However, the spatial comparison showed that the differences are significant and indicate insufficient spatial pattern performance of the hydrological model.The differences in spatial patterns can partly be explained by the fact that the hydrological model is configured to run in six domains that are calibrated independently from each other, as it is often the case for large-scale multi-basin calibrations. Furthermore, the model incorporates predefined temporal dynamics of leaf area index (LAI), root depth (RD) and crop coefficient (Kc) for each land cover type. This zonal approach of model parameterization ignores the spatiotemporal complexity of the natural system. To overcome this limitation, this study features a modified version of the DK-model in which LAI, RD and Kc are empirically derived using remote sensing data and detailed soil property maps in order to generate a higher degree of spatiotemporal variability and spatial consistency between the six domains. The effects of these changes are analyzed by using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis to evaluate spatial patterns. The EOF analysis shows that including remote-sensing-derived LAI, RD and Kc in the distributed hydrological model adds

Thermal-hydrological models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Buscheck, T., LLNL

1998-04-29

This chapter describes the physical processes and natural and engineered system conditions that affect thermal-hydrological (T-H) behavior in the unsaturated zone (UZ) at Yucca Mountain and how these effects are represented in mathematical and numerical models that are used to predict T-H conditions in the near field, altered zone, and engineered barrier system (EBS), and on waste package (WP) surfaces.

Approaches to modelling hydrology and ecosystem interactions

Science.gov (United States)

Silberstein, Richard P.

2014-05-01

As the pressures of industry, agriculture and mining on groundwater resources increase there is a burgeoning un-met need to be able to capture these multiple, direct and indirect stresses in a formal framework that will enable better assessment of impact scenarios. While there are many catchment hydrological models and there are some models that represent ecological states and change (e.g. FLAMES, Liedloff and Cook, 2007), these have not been linked in any deterministic or substantive way. Without such coupled eco-hydrological models quantitative assessments of impacts from water use intensification on water dependent ecosystems under changing climate are difficult, if not impossible. The concept would include facility for direct and indirect water related stresses that may develop around mining and well operations, climate stresses, such as rainfall and temperature, biological stresses, such as diseases and invasive species, and competition such as encroachment from other competing land uses. Indirect water impacts could be, for example, a change in groundwater conditions has an impact on stream flow regime, and hence aquatic ecosystems. This paper reviews previous work examining models combining ecology and hydrology with a view to developing a conceptual framework linking a biophysically defensable model that combines ecosystem function with hydrology. The objective is to develop a model capable of representing the cumulative impact of multiple stresses on water resources and associated ecosystem function.

Hydrologic control on redox and nitrogen dynamics in a peatland soil.

Science.gov (United States)

Rubol, Simonetta; Silver, Whendee L; Bellin, Alberto

2012-08-15

Soils are a dominant source of nitrous oxide (N(2)O), a potent greenhouse gas. However, the complexity of the drivers of N(2)O production and emissions has hindered our ability to predict the magnitude and spatial dynamics of N(2)O fluxes. Soil moisture can be considered a key driver because it influences oxygen (O(2)) supply, which feeds back on N(2)O sources (nitrification versus denitrification) and sinks (reduction to dinitrogen). Soil water content is directly linked to O(2) and redox potential, which regulate microbial metabolism and chemical transformations in the environment. Despite its importance, only a few laboratory studies have addressed the effects of hydrological transient dynamics on nitrogen (N) cycling in the vadose zone. To further investigate these aspects, we performed a long term experiment in a 1.5 m depth soil column supplemented by chamber experiments. With this experiment, we aimed to investigate how soil moisture dynamics influence redox sensitive N cycling in a peatland soil. As expected, increased soil moisture lowered O(2) concentrations and redox potential in the soil. The decline was more severe for prolonged saturated conditions than for short events and at deep than at the soil surface. Gaseous and dissolved N(2)O, dissolved nitrate (NO(3)(-)) and ammonium (NH(4)(+)) changed considerably along the soil column profile following trends in soil O(2) and redox potential. Hot spots of N(2)O concentrations corresponded to high variability in soil O(2) in the upper and lower parts of the column. Results from chamber experiments confirmed high NO(3)(-) reduction potential in soils, particularly from the bottom of the column. Under our experimental conditions, we identified a close coupling of soil O(2) and N(2)O dynamics, both of which lagged behind soil moisture changes. These results highlight the relationship among soil hydrologic properties, redox potential and N cycling, and suggest that models working at a daily scale need to

Evaluating spatial patterns in hydrological modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Koch, Julian

the contiguous United Sates (10^6 km2). To this end, the thesis at hand applies a set of spatial performance metrics on various hydrological variables, namely land-surface-temperature (LST), evapotranspiration (ET) and soil moisture. The inspiration for the applied metrics is found in related fields...... is not fully exploited by current modelling frameworks due to the lack of suitable spatial performance metrics. Furthermore, the traditional model evaluation using discharge is found unsuitable to lay confidence on the predicted catchment inherent spatial variability of hydrological processes in a fully...

Incorporating modelled subglacial hydrology into inversions for basal drag

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. P. Koziol

2017-12-01

Full Text Available A key challenge in modelling coupled ice-flow–subglacial hydrology is initializing the state and parameters of the system. We address this problem by presenting a workflow for initializing these values at the start of a summer melt season. The workflow depends on running a subglacial hydrology model for the winter season, when the system is not forced by meltwater inputs, and ice velocities can be assumed constant. Key parameters of the winter run of the subglacial hydrology model are determined from an initial inversion for basal drag using a linear sliding law. The state of the subglacial hydrology model at the end of winter is incorporated into an inversion of basal drag using a non-linear sliding law which is a function of water pressure. We demonstrate this procedure in the Russell Glacier area and compare the output of the linear sliding law with two non-linear sliding laws. Additionally, we compare the modelled winter hydrological state to radar observations and find that it is in line with summer rather than winter observations.

Improving student comprehension of the interconnectivity of the hydrologic cycle with a novel 'hydrology toolbox', integrated watershed model, and companion textbook

Science.gov (United States)

Huning, L. S.; Margulis, S. A.

2013-12-01

Concepts in introductory hydrology courses are often taught in the context of process-based modeling that ultimately is integrated into a watershed model. In an effort to reduce the learning curve associated with applying hydrologic concepts to real-world applications, we developed and incorporated a 'hydrology toolbox' that complements a new, companion textbook into introductory undergraduate hydrology courses. The hydrology toolbox contains the basic building blocks (functions coded in MATLAB) for an integrated spatially-distributed watershed model that makes hydrologic topics (e.g. precipitation, snow, radiation, evaporation, unsaturated flow, infiltration, groundwater, and runoff) more user-friendly and accessible for students. The toolbox functions can be used in a modular format so that students can study individual hydrologic processes and become familiar with the hydrology toolbox. This approach allows such courses to emphasize understanding and application of hydrologic concepts rather than computer coding or programming. While topics in introductory hydrology courses are often introduced and taught independently or semi-independently, they are inherently interconnected. These toolbox functions are therefore linked together at the end of the course to reinforce a holistic understanding of how these hydrologic processes are measured, interconnected, and modeled. They are integrated into a spatially-distributed watershed model or numerical laboratory where students can explore a range of topics such as rainfall-runoff modeling, urbanization, deforestation, watershed response to changes in parameters or forcings, etc. Model output can readily be visualized and analyzed by students to understand watershed response in a real river basin or a simple 'toy' basin. These tools complement the textbook, each of which has been well received by students in multiple hydrology courses with various disciplinary backgrounds. The same governing equations that students have

Assessment of the Suitability of High Resolution Numerical Weather Model Outputs for Hydrological Modelling in Mountainous Cold Regions

Science.gov (United States)

Rasouli, K.; Pomeroy, J. W.; Hayashi, M.; Fang, X.; Gutmann, E. D.; Li, Y.

2017-12-01

The hydrology of mountainous cold regions has a large spatial variability that is driven both by climate variability and near-surface process variability associated with complex terrain and patterns of vegetation, soils, and hydrogeology. There is a need to downscale large-scale atmospheric circulations towards the fine scales that cold regions hydrological processes operate at to assess their spatial variability in complex terrain and quantify uncertainties by comparison to field observations. In this research, three high resolution numerical weather prediction models, namely, the Intermediate Complexity Atmosphere Research (ICAR), Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), and Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) models are used to represent spatial and temporal patterns of atmospheric conditions appropriate for hydrological modelling. An area covering high mountains and foothills of the Canadian Rockies was selected to assess and compare high resolution ICAR (1 km × 1 km), WRF (4 km × 4 km), and GEM (2.5 km × 2.5 km) model outputs with station-based meteorological measurements. ICAR with very low computational cost was run with different initial and boundary conditions and with finer spatial resolution, which allowed an assessment of modelling uncertainty and scaling that was difficult with WRF. Results show that ICAR, when compared with WRF and GEM, performs very well in precipitation and air temperature modelling in the Canadian Rockies, while all three models show a fair performance in simulating wind and humidity fields. Representation of local-scale atmospheric dynamics leading to realistic fields of temperature and precipitation by ICAR, WRF, and GEM makes these models suitable for high resolution cold regions hydrological predictions in complex terrain, which is a key factor in estimating water security in western Canada.

Description of the National Hydrologic Model for use with the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS)

Science.gov (United States)

Regan, R. Steven; Markstrom, Steven L.; Hay, Lauren E.; Viger, Roland J.; Norton, Parker A.; Driscoll, Jessica M.; LaFontaine, Jacob H.

2018-01-08

This report documents several components of the U.S. Geological Survey National Hydrologic Model of the conterminous United States for use with the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). It provides descriptions of the (1) National Hydrologic Model, (2) Geospatial Fabric for National Hydrologic Modeling, (3) PRMS hydrologic simulation code, (4) parameters and estimation methods used to compute spatially and temporally distributed default values as required by PRMS, (5) National Hydrologic Model Parameter Database, and (6) model extraction tool named Bandit. The National Hydrologic Model Parameter Database contains values for all PRMS parameters used in the National Hydrologic Model. The methods and national datasets used to estimate all the PRMS parameters are described. Some parameter values are derived from characteristics of topography, land cover, soils, geology, and hydrography using traditional Geographic Information System methods. Other parameters are set to long-established default values and computation of initial values. Additionally, methods (statistical, sensitivity, calibration, and algebraic) were developed to compute parameter values on the basis of a variety of nationally-consistent datasets. Values in the National Hydrologic Model Parameter Database can periodically be updated on the basis of new parameter estimation methods and as additional national datasets become available. A companion ScienceBase resource provides a set of static parameter values as well as images of spatially-distributed parameters associated with PRMS states and fluxes for each Hydrologic Response Unit across the conterminuous United States.

A hydrologic-economic modeling approach for analysis of urban water supply dynamics in Chennai, India

Science.gov (United States)

Srinivasan, Veena; Gorelick, Steven M.; Goulder, Lawrence

2010-07-01

In this paper, we discuss a challenging water resources problem in a developing world city, Chennai, India. The goal is to reconstruct past system behavior and diagnose the causes of a major water crisis. In order to do this, we develop a hydrologic-engineering-economic model to address the complexity of urban water supply arising from consumers' dependence on multiple interconnected sources of water. We integrate different components of the urban water system: water flowing into the reservoir system; diversion and distribution by the public water utility; groundwater flow in the aquifer beneath the city; supply, demand, and prices in the informal tanker-truck-based water market; and consumer behavior. Both the economic and physical impacts of consumers' dependence on multiple sources of water are quantified. The model is calibrated over the period 2002-2006 using a range of hydrologic and socio-economic data. The model's results highlight the inadequacy of the reservoir system and the buffering role played by the urban aquifer and consumers' coping investments during multiyear droughts.

Testing the Structure of Hydrological Models using Genetic Programming

Science.gov (United States)

Selle, B.; Muttil, N.

2009-04-01

Genetic Programming is able to systematically explore many alternative model structures of different complexity from available input and response data. We hypothesised that genetic programming can be used to test the structure hydrological models and to identify dominant processes in hydrological systems. To test this, genetic programming was used to analyse a data set from a lysimeter experiment in southeastern Australia. The lysimeter experiment was conducted to quantify the deep percolation response under surface irrigated pasture to different soil types, water table depths and water ponding times during surface irrigation. Using genetic programming, a simple model of deep percolation was consistently evolved in multiple model runs. This simple and interpretable model confirmed the dominant process contributing to deep percolation represented in a conceptual model that was published earlier. Thus, this study shows that genetic programming can be used to evaluate the structure of hydrological models and to gain insight about the dominant processes in hydrological systems.

Large-scale hydrology in Europe : observed patterns and model performance

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gudmundsson, Lukas

2011-06-15

In a changing climate, terrestrial water storages are of great interest as water availability impacts key aspects of ecosystem functioning. Thus, a better understanding of the variations of wet and dry periods will contribute to fully grasp processes of the earth system such as nutrient cycling and vegetation dynamics. Currently, river runoff from small, nearly natural, catchments is one of the few variables of the terrestrial water balance that is regularly monitored with detailed spatial and temporal coverage on large scales. River runoff, therefore, provides a foundation to approach European hydrology with respect to observed patterns on large scales, with regard to the ability of models to capture these.The analysis of observed river flow from small catchments, focused on the identification and description of spatial patterns of simultaneous temporal variations of runoff. These are dominated by large-scale variations of climatic variables but also altered by catchment processes. It was shown that time series of annual low, mean and high flows follow the same atmospheric drivers. The observation that high flows are more closely coupled to large scale atmospheric drivers than low flows, indicates the increasing influence of catchment properties on runoff under dry conditions. Further, it was shown that the low-frequency variability of European runoff is dominated by two opposing centres of simultaneous variations, such that dry years in the north are accompanied by wet years in the south.Large-scale hydrological models are simplified representations of our current perception of the terrestrial water balance on large scales. Quantification of the models strengths and weaknesses is the prerequisite for a reliable interpretation of simulation results. Model evaluations may also enable to detect shortcomings with model assumptions and thus enable a refinement of the current perception of hydrological systems. The ability of a multi model ensemble of nine large

How to handle spatial heterogeneity in hydrological models.

Science.gov (United States)

Loritz, Ralf; Neuper, Malte; Gupta, Hoshin; Zehe, Erwin

2017-04-01

The amount of data we observe in our environmental systems is larger than ever. This leads to a new kind of problem where hydrological modelers can have access to large datasets with various quantitative and qualitative observations but are uncertain about the information content with respect to the hydrological functioning of a landscape. For example digital elevation models obviously contain plenty of information about the topography of a landscape; however the question of relevance for Hydrology is how much of this information is important for the hydrological functioning of a landscape. This kind of question is not limited to topography and we can ask similar questions when handling distributed rainfall data or geophysical images. In this study we would like to show how one can separate dominant patterns in the landscape from idiosyncratic system details. We use a 2D numerical hillslope model in combination with an extensive research data set to test a variety of different model setups that are built upon different landscape characteristics and run by different rainfalls measurements. With the help of information theory based measures we can identify and learn how much heterogeneity is really necessary for successful hydrological simulations and how much of it we can neglect.

An integrated crop and hydrologic modeling system to estimate hydrologic impacts of crop irrigation demands

Science.gov (United States)

R.T. McNider; C. Handyside; K. Doty; W.L. Ellenburg; J.F. Cruise; J.R. Christy; D. Moss; V. Sharda; G. Hoogenboom; Peter Caldwell

2015-01-01

The present paper discusses a coupled gridded crop modeling and hydrologic modeling system that can examine the benefits of irrigation and costs of irrigation and the coincident impact of the irrigation water withdrawals on surface water hydrology. The system is applied to the Southeastern U.S. The system tools to be discussed include a gridded version (GriDSSAT) of...

Ensemble catchment hydrological modelling for climate change impact analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Vansteenkiste, Thomas; Ntegeka, Victor; Willems, Patrick

2014-05-01

It is vital to investigate how the hydrological model structure affects the climate change impact given that future changes not in the range for which the models were calibrated or validated are likely. Thus an ensemble modelling approach which involves a diversity of models with different structures such as spatial resolutions and process descriptions is crucial. The ensemble modelling approach was applied to a set of models: from the lumped conceptual models NAM, PDM and VHM, an intermediate detailed and distributed model WetSpa, to the highly detailed and fully distributed model MIKE-SHE. Explicit focus was given to the high and low flow extremes. All models were calibrated for sub flows and quick flows derived from rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (ETo) time series. In general, all models were able to produce reliable estimates of the flow regimes under the current climate for extreme peak and low flows. An intercomparison of the low and high flow changes under changed climatic conditions was made using climate scenarios tailored for extremes. Tailoring was important for two reasons. First, since the use of many scenarios was not feasible it was necessary to construct few scenarios that would reasonably represent the range of extreme impacts. Second, scenarios would be more informative as changes in high and low flows would be easily traced to changes of ETo and rainfall; the tailored scenarios are constructed using seasonal changes that are defined using different levels of magnitude (high, mean and low) for rainfall and ETo. After simulation of these climate scenarios in the five hydrological models, close agreement was found among the models. The different models predicted similar range of peak flow changes. For the low flows, however, the differences in the projected impact range by different hydrological models was larger, particularly for the drier scenarios. This suggests that the hydrological model structure is critical in low flow predictions

The transferability of hydrological models under nonstationary climatic conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Z. Li

2012-04-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates issues involved in calibrating hydrological models against observed data when the aim of the modelling is to predict future runoff under different climatic conditions. To achieve this objective, we tested two hydrological models, DWBM and SIMHYD, using data from 30 unimpaired catchments in Australia which had at least 60 yr of daily precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PET, and streamflow data. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE, modified index of agreement (d₁ and water balance error (WBE were used as performance criteria. We used a differential split-sample test to split up the data into 120 sub-periods and 4 different climatic sub-periods in order to assess how well the calibrated model could be transferred different periods. For each catchment, the models were calibrated for one sub-period and validated on the other three. Monte Carlo simulation was used to explore parameter stability compared to historic climatic variability. The chi-square test was used to measure the relationship between the distribution of the parameters and hydroclimatic variability. The results showed that the performance of the two hydrological models differed and depended on the model calibration. We found that if a hydrological model is set up to simulate runoff for a wet climate scenario then it should be calibrated on a wet segment of the historic record, and similarly a dry segment should be used for a dry climate scenario. The Monte Carlo simulation provides an effective and pragmatic approach to explore uncertainty and equifinality in hydrological model parameters. Some parameters of the hydrological models are shown to be significantly more sensitive to the choice of calibration periods. Our findings support the idea that when using conceptual hydrological models to assess future climate change impacts, a differential split-sample test and Monte Carlo simulation should be used to quantify uncertainties due to

Testing the ability of a semidistributed hydrological model to simulate contributing area

Science.gov (United States)

Mengistu, S. G.; Spence, C.

2016-06-01

A dry climate, the prevalence of small depressions, and the lack of a well-developed drainage network are characteristics of environments with extremely variable contributing areas to runoff. These types of regions arguably present the greatest challenge to properly understanding catchment streamflow generation processes. Previous studies have shown that contributing area dynamics are important for streamflow response, but the nature of the relationship between the two is not typically understood. Furthermore, it is not often tested how well hydrological models simulate contributing area. In this study, the ability of a semidistributed hydrological model, the PDMROF configuration of Environment Canada's MESH model, was tested to determine if it could simulate contributing area. The study focused on the St. Denis Creek watershed in central Saskatchewan, Canada, which with its considerable topographic depressions, exhibits wide variation in contributing area, making it ideal for this type of investigation. MESH-PDMROF was able to replicate contributing area derived independently from satellite imagery. Daily model simulations revealed a hysteretic relationship between contributing area and streamflow not apparent from the less frequent remote sensing observations. This exercise revealed that contributing area extent can be simulated by a semi-distributed hydrological model with a scheme that assumes storage capacity distribution can be represented with a probability function. However, further investigation is needed to determine if it can adequately represent the complex relationship between streamflow and contributing area that is such a key signature of catchment behavior.

Ensemble Analysis of Variational Assimilation of Hydrologic and Hydrometeorological Data into Distributed Hydrologic Model

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, H.; Seo, D.; Koren, V.

2008-12-01

A prototype 4DVAR (four-dimensional variational) data assimilator for gridded Sacramento soil-moisture accounting and kinematic-wave routing models in the Hydrology Laboratory's Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (HL-RDHM) has been developed. The prototype assimilates streamflow and in-situ soil moisture data and adjusts gridded precipitation and climatological potential evaporation data to reduce uncertainty in the model initial conditions for improved monitoring and prediction of streamflow and soil moisture at the outlet and interior locations within the catchment. Due to large degrees of freedom involved, data assimilation (DA) into distributed hydrologic models is complex. To understand and assess sensitivity of the performance of DA to uncertainties in the model initial conditions and in the data, two synthetic experiments have been carried out in an ensemble framework. Results from the synthetic experiments shed much light on the potential and limitations with DA into distributed models. For initial real-world assessment, the prototype DA has also been applied to the headwater basin at Eldon near the Oklahoma-Arkansas border. We present these results and describe the next steps.

Towards methodical modelling: Differences between the structure and output dynamics of multiple conceptual models

Science.gov (United States)

Knoben, Wouter; Woods, Ross; Freer, Jim

2016-04-01

Conceptual hydrologic models consist of a certain arrangement of spatial and temporal dynamics consisting of stores, fluxes and transformation functions, depending on the modeller's choices and intended use. They have the advantages of being computationally efficient, being relatively easy model structures to reconfigure and having relatively low input data demands. This makes them well-suited for large-scale and large-sample hydrology, where appropriately representing the dominant hydrologic functions of a catchment is a main concern. Given these requirements, the number of parameters in the model cannot be too high, to avoid equifinality and identifiability issues. This limits the number and level of complexity of dominant hydrologic processes the model can represent. Specific purposes and places thus require a specific model and this has led to an abundance of conceptual hydrologic models. No structured overview of these models exists and there is no clear method to select appropriate model structures for different catchments. This study is a first step towards creating an overview of the elements that make up conceptual models, which may later assist a modeller in finding an appropriate model structure for a given catchment. To this end, this study brings together over 30 past and present conceptual models. The reviewed model structures are simply different configurations of three basic model elements (stores, fluxes and transformation functions), depending on the hydrologic processes the models are intended to represent. Differences also exist in the inner workings of the stores, fluxes and transformations, i.e. the mathematical formulations that describe each model element's intended behaviour. We investigate the hypothesis that different model structures can produce similar behavioural simulations. This can clarify the overview of model elements by grouping elements which are similar, which can improve model structure selection.

Modeling the hydrological cycle on Mars

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ghada Machtoub

2012-03-01

Full Text Available The study provides a detailed analysis of the hydrological cycle on Mars simulated with a newly developed microphysical model, incorporated in a spectral Mars General Circulation Model. The modeled hydrological cycle is compared well with simulations of other global climate models. The simulated seasonal migration ofwater vapor, circulation instability, and the high degree of temporal variability of localized water vapor outbursts are shown closely consistent with recent observations. The microphysical parameterization provides a significant improvement in the modeling of ice clouds evolved over the tropics and major ancient volcanoes on Mars. The most significant difference between the simulations presented here and other GCM results is the level at which the water ice clouds are found. The model findings also support interpretation of observed thermal anomalies in the Martian tropics during northern spring and summer seasons.

Regionalization Study of Satellite based Hydrological Model (SHM) in Hydrologically Homogeneous River Basins of India

Science.gov (United States)

Kumari, Babita; Paul, Pranesh Kumar; Singh, Rajendra; Mishra, Ashok; Gupta, Praveen Kumar; Singh, Raghvendra P.

2017-04-01

A new semi-distributed conceptual hydrological model, namely Satellite based Hydrological Model (SHM), has been developed under 'PRACRITI-2' program of Space Application Centre (SAC), Ahmedabad for sustainable water resources management of India by using data from Indian Remote Sensing satellites. Entire India is divided into 5km x 5km grid cells and properties at the center of the cells are assumed to represent the property of the cells. SHM contains five modules namely surface water, forest, snow, groundwater and routing. Two empirical equations (SCS-CN and Hargreaves) and water balance method have been used in the surface water module; the forest module is based on the calculations of water balancing & dynamics of subsurface. 2-D Boussinesq equation is used for groundwater modelling which is solved using implicit finite-difference. The routing module follows a distributed routing approach which requires flow path and network with the key point of travel time estimation. The aim of this study is to evaluate the performance of SHM using regionalization technique which also checks the usefulness of a model in data scarce condition or for ungauged basins. However, homogeneity analysis is pre-requisite to regionalization. Similarity index (Φ) and hierarchical agglomerative cluster analysis are adopted to test the homogeneity in terms of physical attributes of three basins namely Brahmani (39,033 km km^2)), Baitarani (10,982 km km^2)) and Kangsabati (9,660 km km^2)) with respect to Subarnarekha (29,196 km km^2)) basin. The results of both homogeneity analysis show that Brahmani basin is the most homogeneous with respect to Subarnarekha river basin in terms of physical characteristics (land use land cover classes, soiltype and elevation). The calibration and validation of model parameters of Brahmani basin is in progress which are to be transferred into the SHM set up of Subarnarekha basin and results are to be compared with the results of calibrated and validated

visCOS: An R-package to evaluate model performance of hydrological models

Science.gov (United States)

Klotz, Daniel; Herrnegger, Mathew; Wesemann, Johannes; Schulz, Karsten

2016-04-01

The evaluation of model performance is a central part of (hydrological) modelling. Much attention has been given to the development of evaluation criteria and diagnostic frameworks. (Klemeš, 1986; Gupta et al., 2008; among many others). Nevertheless, many applications exist for which objective functions do not yet provide satisfying summaries. Thus, the necessity to visualize results arises in order to explore a wider range of model capacities, be it strengths or deficiencies. Visualizations are usually devised for specific projects and these efforts are often not distributed to a broader community (e.g. via open source software packages). Hence, the opportunity to explicitly discuss a state-of-the-art presentation technique is often missed. We therefore present a comprehensive R-package for evaluating model performance by visualizing and exploring different aspects of hydrological time-series. The presented package comprises a set of useful plots and visualization methods, which complement existing packages, such as hydroGOF (Zambrano-Bigiarini et al., 2012). It is derived from practical applications of the hydrological models COSERO and COSEROreg (Kling et al., 2014). visCOS, providing an interface in R, represents an easy-to-use software package for visualizing and assessing model performance and can be implemented in the process of model calibration or model development. The package provides functions to load hydrological data into R, clean the data, process, visualize, explore and finally save the results in a consistent way. Together with an interactive zoom function of the time series, an online calculation of the objective functions for variable time-windows is included. Common hydrological objective functions, such as the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency and the Kling-Gupta Efficiency, can also be evaluated and visualized in different ways for defined sub-periods like hydrological years or seasonal sections. Many hydrologists use long-term water-balances as a

Hydrological model uncertainty due to spatial evapotranspiration estimation methods

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Xuan; Lamačová, Anna; Duffy, Christopher; Krám, Pavel; Hruška, Jakub

2016-05-01

Evapotranspiration (ET) continues to be a difficult process to estimate in seasonal and long-term water balances in catchment models. Approaches to estimate ET typically use vegetation parameters (e.g., leaf area index [LAI], interception capacity) obtained from field observation, remote sensing data, national or global land cover products, and/or simulated by ecosystem models. In this study we attempt to quantify the uncertainty that spatial evapotranspiration estimation introduces into hydrological simulations when the age of the forest is not precisely known. The Penn State Integrated Hydrologic Model (PIHM) was implemented for the Lysina headwater catchment, located 50°03‧N, 12°40‧E in the western part of the Czech Republic. The spatial forest patterns were digitized from forest age maps made available by the Czech Forest Administration. Two ET methods were implemented in the catchment model: the Biome-BGC forest growth sub-model (1-way coupled to PIHM) and with the fixed-seasonal LAI method. From these two approaches simulation scenarios were developed. We combined the estimated spatial forest age maps and two ET estimation methods to drive PIHM. A set of spatial hydrologic regime and streamflow regime indices were calculated from the modeling results for each method. Intercomparison of the hydrological responses to the spatial vegetation patterns suggested considerable variation in soil moisture and recharge and a small uncertainty in the groundwater table elevation and streamflow. The hydrologic modeling with ET estimated by Biome-BGC generated less uncertainty due to the plant physiology-based method. The implication of this research is that overall hydrologic variability induced by uncertain management practices was reduced by implementing vegetation models in the catchment models.

Remote sensing, hydrological modeling and in situ observations in snow cover research: A review

Science.gov (United States)

Dong, Chunyu

2018-06-01

Snow is an important component of the hydrological cycle. As a major part of the cryosphere, snow cover also represents a valuable terrestrial water resource. In the context of climate change, the dynamics of snow cover play a crucial role in rebalancing the global energy and water budgets. Remote sensing, hydrological modeling and in situ observations are three techniques frequently utilized for snow cover investigations. However, the uncertainties caused by systematic errors, scale gaps, and complicated snow physics, among other factors, limit the usability of these three approaches in snow studies. In this paper, an overview of the advantages, limitations and recent progress of the three methods is presented, and more effective ways to estimate snow cover properties are evaluated. The possibility of improving remotely sensed snow information using ground-based observations is discussed. As a rapidly growing source of volunteered geographic information (VGI), web-based geotagged photos have great potential to provide ground truth data for remotely sensed products and hydrological models and thus contribute to procedures for cloud removal, correction, validation, forcing and assimilation. Finally, this review proposes a synergistic framework for the future of snow cover research. This framework highlights the cross-scale integration of in situ and remotely sensed snow measurements and the assimilation of improved remote sensing data into hydrological models.

Setting up a hydrological model based on global data for the Ayeyarwady basin in Myanmar

Science.gov (United States)

ten Velden, Corine; Sloff, Kees; Nauta, Tjitte

2017-04-01

The use of global datasets in local hydrological modelling can be of great value. It opens up the possibility to include data for areas where local data is not or only sparsely available. In hydrological modelling the existence of both static physical data such as elevation and land use, and dynamic meteorological data such as precipitation and temperature, is essential for setting up a hydrological model, but often such data is difficult to obtain at the local level. For the Ayeyarwady catchment in Myanmar a distributed hydrological model (Wflow: https://github.com/openstreams/wflow) was set up with only global datasets, as part of a water resources study. Myanmar is an emerging economy, which has only recently become more receptive to foreign influences. It has a very limited hydrometeorological measurement network, with large spatial and temporal gaps, and data that are of uncertain quality and difficult to obtain. The hydrological model was thus set up based on resampled versions of the SRTM digital elevation model, the GlobCover land cover dataset and the HWSD soil dataset. Three global meteorological datasets were assessed and compared for use in the hydrological model: TRMM, WFDEI and MSWEP. The meteorological datasets were assessed based on their conformity with several precipitation station measurements, and the overall model performance was assessed by calculating the NSE and RVE based on discharge measurements of several gauging stations. The model was run for the period 1979-2012 on a daily time step, and the results show an acceptable applicability of the used global datasets in the hydrological model. The WFDEI forcing dataset gave the best results, with a NSE of 0.55 at the outlet of the model and a RVE of 8.5%, calculated over the calibration period 2006-2012. As a general trend the modelled discharge at the upstream stations tends to be underestimated, and at the downstream stations slightly overestimated. The quality of the discharge measurements

Model complexity control for hydrologic prediction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schoups, G.; Van de Giesen, N.C.; Savenije, H.H.G.

2008-01-01

A common concern in hydrologic modeling is overparameterization of complex models given limited and noisy data. This leads to problems of parameter nonuniqueness and equifinality, which may negatively affect prediction uncertainties. A systematic way of controlling model complexity is therefore

Process-based distributed modeling approach for analysis of sediment dynamics in a river basin

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. A. Kabir

2011-04-01

Full Text Available Modeling of sediment dynamics for developing best management practices of reducing soil erosion and of sediment control has become essential for sustainable management of watersheds. Precise estimation of sediment dynamics is very important since soils are a major component of enormous environmental processes and sediment transport controls lake and river pollution extensively. Different hydrological processes govern sediment dynamics in a river basin, which are highly variable in spatial and temporal scales. This paper presents a process-based distributed modeling approach for analysis of sediment dynamics at river basin scale by integrating sediment processes (soil erosion, sediment transport and deposition with an existing process-based distributed hydrological model. In this modeling approach, the watershed is divided into an array of homogeneous grids to capture the catchment spatial heterogeneity. Hillslope and river sediment dynamic processes have been modeled separately and linked to each other consistently. Water flow and sediment transport at different land grids and river nodes are modeled using one dimensional kinematic wave approximation of Saint-Venant equations. The mechanics of sediment dynamics are integrated into the model using representative physical equations after a comprehensive review. The model has been tested on river basins in two different hydro climatic areas, the Abukuma River Basin, Japan and Latrobe River Basin, Australia. Sediment transport and deposition are modeled using Govers transport capacity equation. All spatial datasets, such as, Digital Elevation Model (DEM, land use and soil classification data, etc., have been prepared using raster "Geographic Information System (GIS" tools. The results of relevant statistical checks (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and R–squared value indicate that the model simulates basin hydrology and its associated sediment dynamics reasonably well. This paper presents the

Development of hydrological models and surface process modelization Study case in High Mountain slopes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Loaiza, Juan Carlos; Pauwels, Valentijn R

2011-01-01

Hydrological models are useful because allow to predict fluxes into the hydrological systems, which is useful to predict foods and violent phenomenon associated to water fluxes, especially in materials under a high meteorization level. The combination of these models with meteorological predictions, especially with rainfall models, allow to model water behavior into the soil. On most of cases, this type of models is really sensible to evapotranspiration. On climatic studies, the superficial processes have to be represented adequately. Calibration and validation of these models is necessary to obtain reliable results. This paper is a practical exercise of application of complete hydrological information at detailed scale in a high mountain catchment, considering the soil use and types more representatives. The information of soil moisture, infiltration, runoff and rainfall is used to calibrate and validate TOPLATS hydrological model to simulate the behavior of soil moisture. The finds show that is possible to implement an hydrological model by means of soil moisture information use and an equation of calibration by Extended Kalman Filter (EKF).

Simulating Complex, Cold-region Process Interactions Using a Multi-scale, Variable-complexity Hydrological Model

Science.gov (United States)

Marsh, C.; Pomeroy, J. W.; Wheater, H. S.

2017-12-01

Accurate management of water resources is necessary for social, economic, and environmental sustainability worldwide. In locations with seasonal snowcovers, the accurate prediction of these water resources is further complicated due to frozen soils, solid-phase precipitation, blowing snow transport, and snowcover-vegetation-atmosphere interactions. Complex process interactions and feedbacks are a key feature of hydrological systems and may result in emergent phenomena, i.e., the arising of novel and unexpected properties within a complex system. One example is the feedback associated with blowing snow redistribution, which can lead to drifts that cause locally-increased soil moisture, thus increasing plant growth that in turn subsequently impacts snow redistribution, creating larger drifts. Attempting to simulate these emergent behaviours is a significant challenge, however, and there is concern that process conceptualizations within current models are too incomplete to represent the needed interactions. An improved understanding of the role of emergence in hydrological systems often requires high resolution distributed numerical hydrological models that incorporate the relevant process dynamics. The Canadian Hydrological Model (CHM) provides a novel tool for examining cold region hydrological systems. Key features include efficient terrain representation, allowing simulations at various spatial scales, reduced computational overhead, and a modular process representation allowing for an alternative-hypothesis framework. Using both physics-based and conceptual process representations sourced from long term process studies and the current cold regions literature allows for comparison of process representations and importantly, their ability to produce emergent behaviours. Examining the system in a holistic, process-based manner can hopefully derive important insights and aid in development of improved process representations.

Using a lumped conceptual hydrological model for five different catchments in Sweden

OpenAIRE

Ekenberg, Madeleine

2016-01-01

Hydrological models offer powerful tools for understanding and predicting. In this thesis we havereviewed the advantages and disadvantages of physically based distributed hydrological models andconceptually lumped hydrological models. Based on that review, we went into depth and developed aMATLAB code to test if a simple conceptual lumped hydrological model, namely GR2M, wouldperform satisfactory for five different catchments in different parts of Sweden. The model had ratherunsatisfactory re...

Use of hydrologic and hydrodynamic modeling for ecosystem restoration

Science.gov (United States)

Obeysekera, J.; Kuebler, L.; Ahmed, S.; Chang, M.-L.; Engel, V.; Langevin, C.; Swain, E.; Wan, Y.

2011-01-01

Planning and implementation of unprecedented projects for restoring the greater Everglades ecosystem are underway and the hydrologic and hydrodynamic modeling of restoration alternatives has become essential for success of restoration efforts. In view of the complex nature of the South Florida water resources system, regional-scale (system-wide) hydrologic models have been developed and used extensively for the development of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. In addition, numerous subregional-scale hydrologic and hydrodynamic models have been developed and are being used for evaluating project-scale water management plans associated with urban, agricultural, and inland costal ecosystems. The authors provide a comprehensive summary of models of all scales, as well as the next generation models under development to meet the future needs of ecosystem restoration efforts in South Florida. The multiagency efforts to develop and apply models have allowed the agencies to understand the complex hydrologic interactions, quantify appropriate performance measures, and use new technologies in simulation algorithms, software development, and GIS/database techniques to meet the future modeling needs of the ecosystem restoration programs. Copyright ?? 2011 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.

Hydrology in a mediterranean mountain environment. The Vallcebre research catchment (north eastern Spain) I. 20 years of investigations of hydrological dynamics; Hidrologia de un ambiente Mediterraneo de montana. Las cuencas de Vallcebre (Pirineo Oriental) I. 20 anos de investigaciones hidrologicas

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Latron, J.; Llorens, P.; Solar, M.; Poyatos, R.; Rubio, C.; Muzylo, A.; Martinez-Carreras, N.; Delgado, J.; Regues, D.; Catari, G.; Nord, G.; Gallart, F.

2009-07-01

Investigations started 20 years ago in the Vallcebre research basins with the objectives of better understanding the hydrological functioning of Mediterranean mountains basins. The Vallcebre basins (0.15-4.17 km{sup 2}) are located in a Mediterranean mountain area of the Pyrenean ranges (1300 m.a.s.l., North Eastern Spain) Average annual precipitations 862{+-} 260 mm and potential evapotranspiration is 823{+-}26mm. Climate is highly seasonal leading to periods with water deficit in summer, and eventually in winter. Hydrological investigations to periods with water deficit in summer, and eventually in winter. Hydrological investigations in the basins are related to rainfall interception, evapotranspiration, soil moisture spatio-temporal dynamics, runoff response and runoff processes, suspended sediment dynamics and model application both at the plot and basin scales. (Author) 15 refs.

Coupled hydrologic and hydraulic modeling of Upper Niger River Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Fleischmann, Ayan; Siqueira, Vinícius; Paris, Adrien; Collischonn, Walter; Paiva, Rodrigo; Gossett, Marielle; Pontes, Paulo; Calmant, Stephane; Biancamaria, Sylvain; Crétaux, Jean-François; Tanimoune, Bachir

2017-04-01

The Upper Niger Basin is located in Western Africa, flowing from Guinea Highlands towards the Sahel region. In this area lies the seasonally inundated Niger Inland Delta, which supports important environmental services such as habitats for wildlife, climate and flood regulation, as well as large fishery and agricultural areas. In this study, we present the application of MGB-IPH large scale hydrologic and hydrodynamic model for the Upper Niger Basin, totaling c.a. 650,000 km2 and set up until the city of Niamey in Niger. The model couples hydrological vertical balance and runoff generation with hydrodynamic flood wave propagation, by allowing infiltration from floodplains into soil column as well as representing backwater effects and floodplain storage throughout flat areas such as the Inland Delta. The model is forced with TRMM 3B42 daily precipitation and Climate Research Unit (CRU) climatology for the period 2000-2010, and was calibrated against in-situ discharge gauges and validated with in-situ water level, remotely sensed estimations of flooded areas (classification of MODIS imagery) and satellite altimetry (JASON-2 mission). Model results show good predictions for calibrated daily discharge and validated water level and altimetry at stations both upstream and downstream of the delta (Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency>0.7 for all stations), as well as for flooded areas within the delta region (ENS=0.5; r2=0.8), allowing a good representation of flooding dynamics basinwide and simulation of flooding behavior of both perennial (e.g., Niger main stem) and ephemeral rivers (e.g., Niger Red Flood tributaries in Sahel). Coupling between hydrology and hydrodynamic processes indicates an important feedback between floodplain and soil water storage that allows high evapotranspiration rates even after the flood passage around the inner delta area. Also, representation of water retention in floodplain channels and distributaries in the inner delta (e.g., Diaka river

Large-scale hydrological modelling in the semi-arid north-east of Brazil

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Guentner, A

2002-09-01

Semi-arid areas are characterized by small water resources. An increasing water demand due to population growth and economic development as well as a possible decreasing water availability in the course of climate change may aggravate water scarcity in future in these areas. The quantitative assessment of the water resources is a prerequisite for the development of sustainable measures of water management. For this task, hydrological models within a dynamic integrated framework are indispensable tools. The main objective of this study is to develop a hydrological model for the quantification of water availability over a large geographic domain of semi-arid environments. The study area is the Federal State of Ceara in the semi-arid north-east of Brazil. Surface water from reservoirs provides the largest part of water supply. The area has recurrently been affected by droughts which caused serious economic losses and social impacts like migration from the rural regions. (orig.)

Legacy model integration for enhancing hydrologic interdisciplinary research

Science.gov (United States)

Dozier, A.; Arabi, M.; David, O.

2013-12-01

Many challenges are introduced to interdisciplinary research in and around the hydrologic science community due to advances in computing technology and modeling capabilities in different programming languages, across different platforms and frameworks by researchers in a variety of fields with a variety of experience in computer programming. Many new hydrologic models as well as optimization, parameter estimation, and uncertainty characterization techniques are developed in scripting languages such as Matlab, R, Python, or in newer languages such as Java and the .Net languages, whereas many legacy models have been written in FORTRAN and C, which complicates inter-model communication for two-way feedbacks. However, most hydrologic researchers and industry personnel have little knowledge of the computing technologies that are available to address the model integration process. Therefore, the goal of this study is to address these new challenges by utilizing a novel approach based on a publish-subscribe-type system to enhance modeling capabilities of legacy socio-economic, hydrologic, and ecologic software. Enhancements include massive parallelization of executions and access to legacy model variables at any point during the simulation process by another program without having to compile all the models together into an inseparable 'super-model'. Thus, this study provides two-way feedback mechanisms between multiple different process models that can be written in various programming languages and can run on different machines and operating systems. Additionally, a level of abstraction is given to the model integration process that allows researchers and other technical personnel to perform more detailed and interactive modeling, visualization, optimization, calibration, and uncertainty analysis without requiring deep understanding of inter-process communication. To be compatible, a program must be written in a programming language with bindings to a common

Human impact parameterizations in global hydrological models improve estimates of monthly discharges and hydrological extremes: a multi-model validation study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Veldkamp, T I E; Zhao, F; Ward, P J; Moel, H de; Aerts, J C J H; Schmied, H Müller; Portmann, F T; Masaki, Y; Pokhrel, Y; Liu, X; Satoh, Yusuke; Gerten, Dieter; Gosling, S N; Zaherpour, J; Wada, Yoshihide

2018-01-01

Human activity has a profound influence on river discharges, hydrological extremes and water-related hazards. In this study, we compare the results of five state-of-the-art global hydrological models (GHMs) with observations to examine the role of human impact parameterizations (HIP) in the

Integrating an agent-based model into a large-scale hydrological model for evaluating drought management in California

Science.gov (United States)

Sheffield, J.; He, X.; Wada, Y.; Burek, P.; Kahil, M.; Wood, E. F.; Oppenheimer, M.

2017-12-01

California has endured record-breaking drought since winter 2011 and will likely experience more severe and persistent drought in the coming decades under changing climate. At the same time, human water management practices can also affect drought frequency and intensity, which underscores the importance of human behaviour in effective drought adaptation and mitigation. Currently, although a few large-scale hydrological and water resources models (e.g., PCR-GLOBWB) consider human water use and management practices (e.g., irrigation, reservoir operation, groundwater pumping), none of them includes the dynamic feedback between local human behaviors/decisions and the natural hydrological system. It is, therefore, vital to integrate social and behavioral dimensions into current hydrological modeling frameworks. This study applies the agent-based modeling (ABM) approach and couples it with a large-scale hydrological model (i.e., Community Water Model, CWatM) in order to have a balanced representation of social, environmental and economic factors and a more realistic representation of the bi-directional interactions and feedbacks in coupled human and natural systems. In this study, we focus on drought management in California and considers two types of agents, which are (groups of) farmers and state management authorities, and assumed that their corresponding objectives are to maximize the net crop profit and to maintain sufficient water supply, respectively. Farmers' behaviors are linked with local agricultural practices such as cropping patterns and deficit irrigation. More precisely, farmers' decisions are incorporated into CWatM across different time scales in terms of daily irrigation amount, seasonal/annual decisions on crop types and irrigated area as well as the long-term investment of irrigation infrastructure. This simulation-based optimization framework is further applied by performing different sets of scenarios to investigate and evaluate the effectiveness

Seasonal Gravity Field Variations from GRACE and Hydrological Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Hinderer, Jacques; Lemoine, Frank G.

2004-01-01

. Four global hydrological models covering the same period in 2002–2003 as the GRACE observations were investigated to for their mutual consistency in estimates of annual variation in terrestrial water storage and related temporal changes in gravity field. The hydrological models differ by a maximum of 2...... µGal or nearly 5 cm equivalent water storage in selected regions. Integrated over all land masses the standard deviation among the annual signal from the four hydrological models are 0.6 µGal equivalent to around 1.4 cm in equivalent water layer thickness. The estimated accuracy of the annual...

Multi-variable evaluation of hydrological model predictions for a headwater basin in the Canadian Rocky Mountains

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

X. Fang

2013-04-01

, having a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE of 0.58 compared to the outlets of the sub-basins where NSE ranged from 0.2 to 0.28. The Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient of 0.15 and 0.17 for comparisons between the simulated groundwater storage and observed groundwater level fluctuation at two wells indicate weak but positive correlations. The model results are encouraging for uncalibrated prediction and indicate research priorities to improve simulations of snow accumulation at treeline, groundwater dynamics, and small-scale runoff generation processes in this environment. The study shows that improved hydrological cycle model prediction can be derived from improved hydrological understanding and therefore is a model that can be applied for prediction in ungauged basins.

Scaling Hydrologic Processes in Boreal Forest Stands: New Eco-hydrological Perspectives or Deja vu?

Science.gov (United States)

Silins, U.; Lieffers, V. J.; Landhausser, S. M.; Mendoza, C. A.; Devito, K. J.; Petrone, R. M.; Gan, T. Y.

2006-12-01

The leaf area of forest canopies is both main attribute of stands controlling water balance through transpiration and interception, and "engine" driving stand growth, stand dynamics, and forest succession. While transpiration and interception dynamics are classic themes in forest hydrology, we present results from our eco-hydrological research on boreal trees to highlight how more recent eco-physiological insights into species specific controls over water use and leaf area such as hydraulic architecture, cavitation, sapwood-leaf area relationships, and root system controls over water uptake are providing new insights into integrated atmospheric-autecological controls over these hydrologic processes. These results are discussed in the context of newer eco-hydrological frameworks which may serve to aid in exploring how forest disturbance and subsequent trajectories of hydrologic recovery are likely to affect both forest growth dynamics and hydrology of forested landscapes in response to forest management, severe forest pest epidemics such as the Mountain Pine Beetle epidemic in Western Canada, and climate change.

A framework for improving a seasonal hydrological forecasting system using sensitivity analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Arnal, Louise; Pappenberger, Florian; Smith, Paul; Cloke, Hannah

2017-04-01

Seasonal streamflow forecasts are of great value for the socio-economic sector, for applications such as navigation, flood and drought mitigation and reservoir management for hydropower generation and water allocation to agriculture and drinking water. However, as we speak, the performance of dynamical seasonal hydrological forecasting systems (systems based on running seasonal meteorological forecasts through a hydrological model to produce seasonal hydrological forecasts) is still limited in space and time. In this context, the ESP (Ensemble Streamflow Prediction) remains an attractive forecasting method for seasonal streamflow forecasting as it relies on forcing a hydrological model (starting from the latest observed or simulated initial hydrological conditions) with historical meteorological observations. This makes it cheaper to run than a standard dynamical seasonal hydrological forecasting system, for which the seasonal meteorological forecasts will first have to be produced, while still producing skilful forecasts. There is thus the need to focus resources and time towards improvements in dynamical seasonal hydrological forecasting systems which will eventually lead to significant improvements in the skill of the streamflow forecasts generated. Sensitivity analyses are a powerful tool that can be used to disentangle the relative contributions of the two main sources of errors in seasonal streamflow forecasts, namely the initial hydrological conditions (IHC; e.g., soil moisture, snow cover, initial streamflow, among others) and the meteorological forcing (MF; i.e., seasonal meteorological forecasts of precipitation and temperature, input to the hydrological model). Sensitivity analyses are however most useful if they inform and change current operational practices. To this end, we propose a method to improve the design of a seasonal hydrological forecasting system. This method is based on sensitivity analyses, informing the forecasters as to which element of

A fractional factorial probabilistic collocation method for uncertainty propagation of hydrologic model parameters in a reduced dimensional space

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, S.; Huang, G. H.; Huang, W.; Fan, Y. R.; Li, Z.

2015-10-01

In this study, a fractional factorial probabilistic collocation method is proposed to reveal statistical significance of hydrologic model parameters and their multi-level interactions affecting model outputs, facilitating uncertainty propagation in a reduced dimensional space. The proposed methodology is applied to the Xiangxi River watershed in China to demonstrate its validity and applicability, as well as its capability of revealing complex and dynamic parameter interactions. A set of reduced polynomial chaos expansions (PCEs) only with statistically significant terms can be obtained based on the results of factorial analysis of variance (ANOVA), achieving a reduction of uncertainty in hydrologic predictions. The predictive performance of reduced PCEs is verified by comparing against standard PCEs and the Monte Carlo with Latin hypercube sampling (MC-LHS) method in terms of reliability, sharpness, and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE). Results reveal that the reduced PCEs are able to capture hydrologic behaviors of the Xiangxi River watershed, and they are efficient functional representations for propagating uncertainties in hydrologic predictions.

The application of a dynamic OpenMI coupling between a regional climate model and a distributed surface water-groundwater model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Butts, Michael; Drews, Martin; Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl

2014-01-01

To support climate adaptation measures for water resources, we have developed and evaluated a dynamic coupling between a comprehensive distributed hydrological modelling system, MIKE SHE, and a regional climate modelling system, HIRHAM. The coupled model enables two-way interaction between the at......, including local measurements of energy fluxes. The results presented here suggest that there may be important differences in the simulated water balances for this catchment created by introducing an alternative hydrological model into the RCM....

Hydrological model in STEALTH 2-D code

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hart, R.; Hofmann, R.

1979-10-01

Porous media fluid flow logic has been added to the two-dimensional version of the STEALTH explicit finite-difference code. It is a first-order hydrological model based upon Darcy's Law. Anisotropic permeability can be prescribed through x and y directional permeabilities. The fluid flow equations are formulated for either two-dimensional translation symmetry or two-dimensional axial symmetry. The addition of the hydrological model to STEALTH is a first step toward analyzing a physical system's response to the coupling of thermal, mechanical, and fluid flow phenomena

Quantifying Km-scale Hydrological Exchange Flows under Dynamic Flows and Their Influences on River Corridor Biogeochemistry

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, X.; Song, X.; Shuai, P.; Hammond, G. E.; Ren, H.; Zachara, J. M.

2017-12-01

Hydrologic exchange flows (HEFs) in rivers play vital roles in watershed ecological and biogeochemical functions due to their strong capacity to attenuate contaminants and process significant quantities of carbon and nutrients. While most of existing HEF studies focus on headwater systems with the assumption of steady-state flow, there is lack of understanding of large-scale HEFs in high-order regulated rivers that experience high-frequency stage fluctuations. The large variability of HEFs is a result of interactions between spatial heterogeneity in hydrogeologic properties and temporal variation in river discharge induced by natural or anthropogenic perturbations. Our 9-year spatially distributed dataset (water elevation, specific conductance, and temperature) combined with mechanistic hydrobiogeochemical simulations have revealed complex spatial and temporal dynamics in km-scale HEFs and their significant impacts on contaminant plume mobility and hyporheic biogeochemical processes along the Hanford Reach. Extended multidirectional flow behaviors of unconfined, river corridor groundwater were observed hundreds of meters inland from the river shore resulting from discharge-dependent HEFs. An appropriately sized modeling domain to capture the impact of regional groundwater flow as well as knowledge of subsurface structures controlling intra-aquifer hydrologic connectivity were essential to realistically model transient storage in this large-scale river corridor. This work showed that both river water and mobile groundwater contaminants could serve as effective tracers of HEFs, thus providing valuable information for evaluating and validating the HEF models. Multimodal residence time distributions with long tails were resulted from the mixture of long and short exchange pathways, which consequently impact the carbon and nutrient cycling within the river corridor. Improved understanding of HEFs using integrated observational and modeling approaches sheds light on

Data-Driven Model Uncertainty Estimation in Hydrologic Data Assimilation

Science.gov (United States)

Pathiraja, S.; Moradkhani, H.; Marshall, L.; Sharma, A.; Geenens, G.

2018-02-01

The increasing availability of earth observations necessitates mathematical methods to optimally combine such data with hydrologic models. Several algorithms exist for such purposes, under the umbrella of data assimilation (DA). However, DA methods are often applied in a suboptimal fashion for complex real-world problems, due largely to several practical implementation issues. One such issue is error characterization, which is known to be critical for a successful assimilation. Mischaracterized errors lead to suboptimal forecasts, and in the worst case, to degraded estimates even compared to the no assimilation case. Model uncertainty characterization has received little attention relative to other aspects of DA science. Traditional methods rely on subjective, ad hoc tuning factors or parametric distribution assumptions that may not always be applicable. We propose a novel data-driven approach (named SDMU) to model uncertainty characterization for DA studies where (1) the system states are partially observed and (2) minimal prior knowledge of the model error processes is available, except that the errors display state dependence. It includes an approach for estimating the uncertainty in hidden model states, with the end goal of improving predictions of observed variables. The SDMU is therefore suited to DA studies where the observed variables are of primary interest. Its efficacy is demonstrated through a synthetic case study with low-dimensional chaotic dynamics and a real hydrologic experiment for one-day-ahead streamflow forecasting. In both experiments, the proposed method leads to substantial improvements in the hidden states and observed system outputs over a standard method involving perturbation with Gaussian noise.

Modelling food-web mediated effects of hydrological variability and environmental flows.

Science.gov (United States)

Robson, Barbara J; Lester, Rebecca E; Baldwin, Darren S; Bond, Nicholas R; Drouart, Romain; Rolls, Robert J; Ryder, Darren S; Thompson, Ross M

2017-11-01

Environmental flows are designed to enhance aquatic ecosystems through a variety of mechanisms; however, to date most attention has been paid to the effects on habitat quality and life-history triggers, especially for fish and vegetation. The effects of environmental flows on food webs have so far received little attention, despite food-web thinking being fundamental to understanding of river ecosystems. Understanding environmental flows in a food-web context can help scientists and policy-makers better understand and manage outcomes of flow alteration and restoration. In this paper, we consider mechanisms by which flow variability can influence and alter food webs, and place these within a conceptual and numerical modelling framework. We also review the strengths and weaknesses of various approaches to modelling the effects of hydrological management on food webs. Although classic bioenergetic models such as Ecopath with Ecosim capture many of the key features required, other approaches, such as biogeochemical ecosystem modelling, end-to-end modelling, population dynamic models, individual-based models, graph theory models, and stock assessment models are also relevant. In many cases, a combination of approaches will be useful. We identify current challenges and new directions in modelling food-web responses to hydrological variability and environmental flow management. These include better integration of food-web and hydraulic models, taking physiologically-based approaches to food quality effects, and better representation of variations in space and time that may create ecosystem control points. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A "total parameter estimation" method in the varification of distributed hydrological models

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Wang, M.; Qin, D.; Wang, H.

2011-12-01

Conventionally hydrological models are used for runoff or flood forecasting, hence the determination of model parameters are common estimated based on discharge measurements at the catchment outlets. With the advancement in hydrological sciences and computer technology, distributed hydrological models based on the physical mechanism such as SWAT, MIKESHE, and WEP, have gradually become the mainstream models in hydrology sciences. However, the assessments of distributed hydrological models and model parameter determination still rely on runoff and occasionally, groundwater level measurements. It is essential in many countries, including China, to understand the local and regional water cycle: not only do we need to simulate the runoff generation process and for flood forecasting in wet areas, we also need to grasp the water cycle pathways and consumption process of transformation in arid and semi-arid regions for the conservation and integrated water resources management. As distributed hydrological model can simulate physical processes within a catchment, we can get a more realistic representation of the actual water cycle within the simulation model. Runoff is the combined result of various hydrological processes, using runoff for parameter estimation alone is inherits problematic and difficult to assess the accuracy. In particular, in the arid areas, such as the Haihe River Basin in China, runoff accounted for only 17% of the rainfall, and very concentrated during the rainy season from June to August each year. During other months, many of the perennial rivers within the river basin dry up. Thus using single runoff simulation does not fully utilize the distributed hydrological model in arid and semi-arid regions. This paper proposed a "total parameter estimation" method to verify the distributed hydrological models within various water cycle processes, including runoff, evapotranspiration, groundwater, and soil water; and apply it to the Haihe river basin in

Hydrologic response to multimodel climate output using a physically based model of groundwater/surface water interactions

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Sulis, M.; Paniconi, C.; Marrocu, M.; Huard, D.; Chaumont, D.

2012-12-01

General circulation models (GCMs) are the primary instruments for obtaining projections of future global climate change. Outputs from GCMs, aided by dynamical and/or statistical downscaling techniques, have long been used to simulate changes in regional climate systems over wide spatiotemporal scales. Numerous studies have acknowledged the disagreements between the various GCMs and between the different downscaling methods designed to compensate for the mismatch between climate model output and the spatial scale at which hydrological models are applied. Very little is known, however, about the importance of these differences once they have been input or assimilated by a nonlinear hydrological model. This issue is investigated here at the catchment scale using a process-based model of integrated surface and subsurface hydrologic response driven by outputs from 12 members of a multimodel climate ensemble. The data set consists of daily values of precipitation and min/max temperatures obtained by combining four regional climate models and five GCMs. The regional scenarios were downscaled using a quantile scaling bias-correction technique. The hydrologic response was simulated for the 690 km2des Anglais catchment in southwestern Quebec, Canada. The results show that different hydrological components (river discharge, aquifer recharge, and soil moisture storage) respond differently to precipitation and temperature anomalies in the multimodel climate output, with greater variability for annual discharge compared to recharge and soil moisture storage. We also find that runoff generation and extreme event-driven peak hydrograph flows are highly sensitive to any uncertainty in climate data. Finally, the results show the significant impact of changing sequences of rainy days on groundwater recharge fluxes and the influence of longer dry spells in modifying soil moisture spatial variability.

Network analysis applications in hydrology

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Price, Katie

2017-04-01

Applied network theory has seen pronounced expansion in recent years, in fields such as epidemiology, computer science, and sociology. Concurrent development of analytical methods and frameworks has increased possibilities and tools available to researchers seeking to apply network theory to a variety of problems. While water and nutrient fluxes through stream systems clearly demonstrate a directional network structure, the hydrological applications of network theory remain under­explored. This presentation covers a review of network applications in hydrology, followed by an overview of promising network analytical tools that potentially offer new insights into conceptual modeling of hydrologic systems, identifying behavioral transition zones in stream networks and thresholds of dynamical system response. Network applications were tested along an urbanization gradient in Atlanta, Georgia, USA. Peachtree Creek and Proctor Creek. Peachtree Creek contains a nest of five long­term USGS streamflow and water quality gages, allowing network application of long­term flow statistics. The watershed spans a range of suburban and heavily urbanized conditions. Summary flow statistics and water quality metrics were analyzed using a suite of network analysis techniques, to test the conceptual modeling and predictive potential of the methodologies. Storm events and low flow dynamics during Summer 2016 were analyzed using multiple network approaches, with an emphasis on tomogravity methods. Results indicate that network theory approaches offer novel perspectives for understanding long­ term and event­based hydrological data. Key future directions for network applications include 1) optimizing data collection, 2) identifying "hotspots" of contaminant and overland flow influx to stream systems, 3) defining process domains, and 4) analyzing dynamic connectivity of various system components, including groundwater­surface water interactions.

Effective use of integrated hydrological models in basin-scale water resources management: surrogate modeling approaches

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Zheng, Y.; Wu, B.; Wu, X.

2015-12-01

Integrated hydrological models (IHMs) consider surface water and subsurface water as a unified system, and have been widely adopted in basin-scale water resources studies. However, due to IHMs' mathematical complexity and high computational cost, it is difficult to implement them in an iterative model evaluation process (e.g., Monte Carlo Simulation, simulation-optimization analysis, etc.), which diminishes their applicability for supporting decision-making in real-world situations. Our studies investigated how to effectively use complex IHMs to address real-world water issues via surrogate modeling. Three surrogate modeling approaches were considered, including 1) DYCORS (DYnamic COordinate search using Response Surface models), a well-established response surface-based optimization algorithm; 2) SOIM (Surrogate-based Optimization for Integrated surface water-groundwater Modeling), a response surface-based optimization algorithm that we developed specifically for IHMs; and 3) Probabilistic Collocation Method (PCM), a stochastic response surface approach. Our investigation was based on a modeling case study in the Heihe River Basin (HRB), China's second largest endorheic river basin. The GSFLOW (Coupled Ground-Water and Surface-Water Flow Model) model was employed. Two decision problems were discussed. One is to optimize, both in time and in space, the conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater for agricultural irrigation in the middle HRB region; and the other is to cost-effectively collect hydrological data based on a data-worth evaluation. Overall, our study results highlight the value of incorporating an IHM in making decisions of water resources management and hydrological data collection. An IHM like GSFLOW can provide great flexibility to formulating proper objective functions and constraints for various optimization problems. On the other hand, it has been demonstrated that surrogate modeling approaches can pave the path for such incorporation in real

Different methods for spatial interpolation of rainfall data for operational hydrology and hydrological modeling at watershed scale: a review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ly, S.

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Watershed management and hydrological modeling require data related to the very important matter of precipitation, often measured using raingages or weather stations. Hydrological models often require a preliminary spatial interpolation as part of the modeling process. The success of spatial interpolation varies according to the type of model chosen, its mode of geographical management and the resolution used. The quality of a result is determined by the quality of the continuous spatial rainfall, which ensues from the interpolation method used. The objective of this article is to review the existing methods for interpolation of rainfall data that are usually required in hydrological modeling. We review the basis for the application of certain common methods and geostatistical approaches used in interpolation of rainfall. Previous studies have highlighted the need for new research to investigate ways of improving the quality of rainfall data and ultimately, the quality of hydrological modeling.

Combined Economic and Hydrologic Modeling to Support Collaborative Decision Making Processes

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Sheer, D. P.

2008-12-01

For more than a decade, the core concept of the author's efforts in support of collaborative decision making has been a combination of hydrologic simulation and multi-objective optimization. The modeling has generally been used to support collaborative decision making processes. The OASIS model developed by HydroLogics Inc. solves a multi-objective optimization at each time step using a mixed integer linear program (MILP). The MILP can be configured to include any user defined objective, including but not limited too economic objectives. For example, an estimated marginal value for water for crops and M&I use were included in the objective function to drive trades in a model of the lower Rio Grande. The formulation of the MILP, constraints and objectives, in any time step is conditional: it changes based on the value of state variables and dynamic external forcing functions, such as rainfall, hydrology, market prices, arrival of migratory fish, water temperature, etc. It therefore acts as a dynamic short term multi-objective economic optimization for each time step. MILP is capable of solving a general problem that includes a very realistic representation of the physical system characteristics in addition to the normal multi-objective optimization objectives and constraints included in economic models. In all of these models, the short term objective function is a surrogate for achieving long term multi-objective results. The long term performance for any alternative (especially including operating strategies) is evaluated by simulation. An operating rule is the combination of conditions, parameters, constraints and objectives used to determine the formulation of the short term optimization in each time step. Heuristic wrappers for the simulation program have been developed improve the parameters of an operating rule, and are initiating research on a wrapper that will allow us to employ a genetic algorithm to improve the form of the rule (conditions, constraints

Quantitative and qualitative synthesis of socio-hydrological research

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Xu, L.; Gober, P.; Wheater, H. S.; Kajikawa, Y.

2017-12-01

The challenge of climate change adaptation has raised awareness of the feedbacks and interconnections in complex human-natural coupled water systems. This has reinforced the call for a socio-hydrological approach to better understand, and represent in models, the associated system dynamics. Such models can potentially provide the tools to link knowledge about complex water systems to decision-making and policy frameworks. Socio-hydrology, as the subfield of human-natural coupled systems analysis, has been dramatically developed in the past few years. The purpose of this study is to empirically examine work that has been framed under the umbrella of socio-hydrology, to provide insights into the participants and their disciplinary perspectives, and to draw conclusions about where the field is headed. In doing so, we used a combined quantitative and qualitative approach to synthesise current knowledge of socio-hydrology and to propose some promising future directions in this subfield of water sciences. The general statistics of the existing literature showed that socio-hydrological research has become an emerging topic and is drawing more concern and engagement of hydrologists. However, the participation of social scientists is inadequate and greater cross-disciplinary integration is desirable. Current concerns in this subfield of water research centre on two basic challenges: (1) the need to embrace the social dimensions of water-related risks, and (2) the importance of interactions and feedbacks in dynamic socio-hydrological systems. A third challenge identified here relates to the large-scale implications of 1) and 2) above, i.e. virtual water flows as a mechanism to track the human use of water at the global scale. Accordingly, we propose five potential directions with regard to socio-hydrological models, interdisciplinary collaboration and transdisciplinary studies, the science-policy interface, resilience in socio-hydrological systems, and data sharing for human

Testing the structure of a hydrological model using Genetic Programming

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Selle, Benny; Muttil, Nitin

2011-01-01

SummaryGenetic Programming is able to systematically explore many alternative model structures of different complexity from available input and response data. We hypothesised that Genetic Programming can be used to test the structure of hydrological models and to identify dominant processes in hydrological systems. To test this, Genetic Programming was used to analyse a data set from a lysimeter experiment in southeastern Australia. The lysimeter experiment was conducted to quantify the deep percolation response under surface irrigated pasture to different soil types, watertable depths and water ponding times during surface irrigation. Using Genetic Programming, a simple model of deep percolation was recurrently evolved in multiple Genetic Programming runs. This simple and interpretable model supported the dominant process contributing to deep percolation represented in a conceptual model that was published earlier. Thus, this study shows that Genetic Programming can be used to evaluate the structure of hydrological models and to gain insight about the dominant processes in hydrological systems.

Hydrological Modeling Reproducibility Through Data Management and Adaptors for Model Interoperability

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Turner, M. A.

2015-12-01

Because of a lack of centralized planning and no widely-adopted standards among hydrological modeling research groups, research communities, and the data management teams meant to support research, there is chaos when it comes to data formats, spatio-temporal resolutions, ontologies, and data availability. All this makes true scientific reproducibility and collaborative integrated modeling impossible without some glue to piece it all together. Our Virtual Watershed Integrated Modeling System provides the tools and modeling framework hydrologists need to accelerate and fortify new scientific investigations by tracking provenance and providing adaptors for integrated, collaborative hydrologic modeling and data management. Under global warming trends where water resources are under increasing stress, reproducible hydrological modeling will be increasingly important to improve transparency and understanding of the scientific facts revealed through modeling. The Virtual Watershed Data Engine is capable of ingesting a wide variety of heterogeneous model inputs, outputs, model configurations, and metadata. We will demonstrate one example, starting from real-time raw weather station data packaged with station metadata. Our integrated modeling system will then create gridded input data via geostatistical methods along with error and uncertainty estimates. These gridded data are then used as input to hydrological models, all of which are available as web services wherever feasible. Models may be integrated in a data-centric way where the outputs too are tracked and used as inputs to "downstream" models. This work is part of an ongoing collaborative Tri-state (New Mexico, Nevada, Idaho) NSF EPSCoR Project, WC-WAVE, comprised of researchers from multiple universities in each of the three states. The tools produced and presented here have been developed collaboratively alongside watershed scientists to address specific modeling problems with an eye on the bigger picture of

Hydrologic characteristics of freshwater mussel habitat: novel insights from modeled flows

Science.gov (United States)

Drew, C. Ashton; Eddy, Michele; Kwak, Thomas J.; Cope, W. Gregory; Augspurger, Tom

2018-01-01

The ability to model freshwater stream habitat and species distributions is limited by the spatially sparse flow data available from long-term gauging stations. Flow data beyond the immediate vicinity of gauging stations would enhance our ability to explore and characterize hydrologic habitat suitability. The southeastern USA supports high aquatic biodiversity, but threats, such as landuse alteration, climate change, conflicting water-resource demands, and pollution, have led to the imperilment and legal protection of many species. The ability to distinguish suitable from unsuitable habitat conditions, including hydrologic suitability, is a key criterion for successful conservation and restoration of aquatic species. We used the example of the critically endangered Tar River Spinymussel (Parvaspina steinstansana) and associated species to demonstrate the value of modeled flow data (WaterFALL™) to generate novel insights into population structure and testable hypotheses regarding hydrologic suitability. With ordination models, we: 1) identified all catchments with potentially suitable hydrology, 2) identified 2 distinct hydrologic environments occupied by the Tar River Spinymussel, and 3) estimated greater hydrological habitat niche breadth of assumed surrogate species associates at the catchment scale. Our findings provide the first demonstrated application of complete, continuous, regional modeled hydrologic data to freshwater mussel distribution and management. This research highlights the utility of modeling and data-mining methods to facilitate further exploration and application of such modeled environmental conditions to inform aquatic species management. We conclude that such an approach can support landscape-scale management decisions that require spatial information at fine resolution (e.g., enhanced National Hydrology Dataset catchments) and broad extent (e.g., multiple river basins).

On the role of model structure in hydrological modeling : Understanding models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gharari, S.

2016-01-01

Modeling is an essential part of the science of hydrology. Models enable us to formulate what we know and perceive from the real world into a neat package. Rainfall-runoff models are abstract simplifications of how a catchment works. Within the research field of scientific rainfall-runoff modeling,

Hydrological Dynamics In High Mountain Catchment Areas of Central Norway

Science.gov (United States)

Löffler, Jörg; Rößler, Ole

Large-scaled landscape structure is regarded as a mosaic of ecotopes where process dynamics of water and energy fluxes are analysed due to its effects on ecosystem functioning. The investigations have been carried out in the continental most Vågå/Oppland high mountains in central Norway since 1994 (LÖFFLER &WUNDRAM 1999, 2000, 2001). Additionally, comparable investigations started in 2000 dealing with the oceanic high mountain landscapes on same latitudes (LÖFFLER et al. 2001). The theoretical and methodological framework of the project is given by the Landscape-Ecological Complex Analysis (MOSIMANN 1984, 1985) and its variations due to technical and principle methodical challenges in this high mountain landscape (KÖHLER et al. 1994, LÖFFLER 1998). The aim of the project is to characterize high mountain ecosystem structure, functioning and dynamics within small catchment areas, that are chosen in two different altitudinal belts each in the eastern continental and the western oceanic region of central Norway. In the frame of this research project hydrological and meteorological measurements on ground water, percolation and soil moisture dynamics as well as on evaporation, air humidity and air-, surface- and soil-temperatures have been conducted. On the basis of large-scaled landscape-ecological mappings (LÖFFLER 1997) one basic meteorological station and several major data logger run stations have been installed in representative sites of each two catchment areas in the low and mid alpine belts of the investigation regions ( JUNGet al. 1997, LÖFFLER &WUNDRAM 1997). Moreover, spatial differentiations of groundwater level, soil moisture and temperature profiles have been investigated by means of hand held measurements at different times of the day, during different climatic situations and different seasons. Daily and annual air-, surface- and soil-temperature dynamics are demonstrated by means of thermoisopleth-diagrams for different types of ecotopes of the

Results and Lessons Learned from a Coupled Social and Physical Hydrology Model: Testing Alternative Water Management Policies and Institutional Structures Using Agent-Based Modeling and Regional Hydrology

Science.gov (United States)

Murphy, J.; Lammers, R. B.; Prousevitch, A.; Ozik, J.; Altaweel, M.; Collier, N. T.; Kliskey, A. D.; Alessa, L.

2015-12-01

Water Management in the U.S. Southwest is under increasing scrutiny as many areas endure persistent drought. The impact of these prolonged dry conditions is a product of regional climate and hydrological conditions, but also of a highly engineered water management infrastructure and a complex web of social arrangements whereby water is allocated, shared, exchanged, used, re-used, and finally consumed. We coupled an agent-based model with a regional hydrological model to understand the dynamics in one richly studied and highly populous area: southern Arizona, U.S.A., including metropolitan Phoenix and Tucson. There, multiple management entities representing an array of municipalities and other water providers and customers, including private companies and Native American tribes are enmeshed in a complex legal and economic context in which water is bought, leased, banked, and exchanged in a variety of ways and on multiple temporal and physical scales. A recurrent question in the literature of adaptive management is the impact of management structure on overall system performance. To explore this, we constructed an agent-based model to capture this social complexity, and coupled this with a physical hydrological model that we used to drive the system under a variety of water stress scenarios and to assess the regional impact of the social system's performance. We report the outcomes of ensembles of runs in which varieties of alternative policy constraints and management strategies are considered. We hope to contribute to policy discussions in this area and connected and legislatively similar areas (such as California) as current conditions change and existing legal and policy structures are revised. Additionally, we comment on the challenges of integrating models that ostensibly are in different domains (physical and social) but that independently represent a system in which physical processes and human actions are closely intertwined and difficult to disentangle.

Grid based calibration of SWAT hydrological models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. Gorgan

2012-07-01

Full Text Available The calibration and execution of large hydrological models, such as SWAT (soil and water assessment tool, developed for large areas, high resolution, and huge input data, need not only quite a long execution time but also high computation resources. SWAT hydrological model supports studies and predictions of the impact of land management practices on water, sediment, and agricultural chemical yields in complex watersheds. The paper presents the gSWAT application as a web practical solution for environmental specialists to calibrate extensive hydrological models and to run scenarios, by hiding the complex control of processes and heterogeneous resources across the grid based high computation infrastructure. The paper highlights the basic functionalities of the gSWAT platform, and the features of the graphical user interface. The presentation is concerned with the development of working sessions, interactive control of calibration, direct and basic editing of parameters, process monitoring, and graphical and interactive visualization of the results. The experiments performed on different SWAT models and the obtained results argue the benefits brought by the grid parallel and distributed environment as a solution for the processing platform. All the instances of SWAT models used in the reported experiments have been developed through the enviroGRIDS project, targeting the Black Sea catchment area.

Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on the Water Balances and Flooding Conditions of Peninsular Malaysia watersheds by a Coupled Numerical Climate Model - Watershed Hydrology Model

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Ercan, A.; Kavvas, M. L.; Ishida, K.; Chen, Z. Q.; Amin, M. Z. M.; Shaaban, A. J.

2017-12-01

Impacts of climate change on the hydrologic processes under future climate change conditions were assessed over various watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia by means of a coupled regional climate and physically-based hydrology model that utilized an ensemble of future climate change projections. An ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations from coarse resolution global climate models' (GCMs) projections for the 21st century were dynamically downscaled to 6 km resolution over Peninsular Malaysia by a regional numerical climate model, which was then coupled with the watershed hydrology model WEHY through the atmospheric boundary layer over the selected watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia. Hydrologic simulations were carried out at hourly increments and at hillslope-scale in order to assess the impacts of climate change on the water balances and flooding conditions at the selected watersheds during the 21st century. The coupled regional climate and hydrology model was simulated for a duration of 90 years for each of the 15 realizations. It is demonstrated that the increase in mean monthly flows due to the impact of expected climate change during 2040-2100 is statistically significant at the selected watersheds. Furthermore, the flood frequency analyses for the selected watersheds indicate an overall increasing trend in the second half of the 21st century.

Modeling post-wildfire hydrological processes with ParFlow

Science.gov (United States)

Escobar, I. S.; Lopez, S. R.; Kinoshita, A. M.

2017-12-01

Wildfires alter the natural processes within a watershed, such as surface runoff, evapotranspiration rates, and subsurface water storage. Post-fire hydrologic models are typically one-dimensional, empirically-based models or two-dimensional, conceptually-based models with lumped parameter distributions. These models are useful for modeling and predictions at the watershed outlet; however, do not provide detailed, distributed hydrologic processes at the point scale within the watershed. This research uses ParFlow, a three-dimensional, distributed hydrologic model to simulate post-fire hydrologic processes by representing the spatial and temporal variability of soil burn severity (via hydrophobicity) and vegetation recovery. Using this approach, we are able to evaluate the change in post-fire water components (surface flow, lateral flow, baseflow, and evapotranspiration). This work builds upon previous field and remote sensing analysis conducted for the 2003 Old Fire Burn in Devil Canyon, located in southern California (USA). This model is initially developed for a hillslope defined by a 500 m by 1000 m lateral extent. The subsurface reaches 12.4 m and is assigned a variable cell thickness to explicitly consider soil burn severity throughout the stages of recovery and vegetation regrowth. We consider four slope and eight hydrophobic layer configurations. Evapotranspiration is used as a proxy for vegetation regrowth and is represented by the satellite-based Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBOP) product. The pre- and post-fire surface runoff, subsurface storage, and surface storage interactions are evaluated at the point scale. Results will be used as a basis for developing and fine-tuning a watershed-scale model. Long-term simulations will advance our understanding of post-fire hydrological partitioning between water balance components and the spatial variability of watershed processes, providing improved guidance for post-fire watershed management. In reference

Diagnosing the impact of alternative calibration strategies on coupled hydrologic models

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Smith, T. J.; Perera, C.; Corrigan, C.

2017-12-01

Hydrologic models represent a significant tool for understanding, predicting, and responding to the impacts of water on society and society on water resources and, as such, are used extensively in water resources planning and management. Given this important role, the validity and fidelity of hydrologic models is imperative. While extensive focus has been paid to improving hydrologic models through better process representation, better parameter estimation, and better uncertainty quantification, significant challenges remain. In this study, we explore a number of competing model calibration scenarios for simple, coupled snowmelt-runoff models to better understand the sensitivity / variability of parameterizations and its impact on model performance, robustness, fidelity, and transferability. Our analysis highlights the sensitivity of coupled snowmelt-runoff model parameterizations to alterations in calibration approach, underscores the concept of information content in hydrologic modeling, and provides insight into potential strategies for improving model robustness / fidelity.

Putting hydrological modelling practice to the test

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Melsen, Lieke Anna

2017-01-01

Six steps can be distinguished in the process of hydrological modelling: the perceptual model (deciding on the processes), the conceptual model (deciding on the equations), the procedural model (get the code to run on a computer), calibration (identify the parameters), evaluation (confronting

Using the object modeling system for hydrological model development and application

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Kralisch

2005-01-01

Full Text Available State of the art challenges in sustainable management of water resources have created demand for integrated, flexible and easy to use hydrological models which are able to simulate the quantitative and qualitative aspects of the hydrological cycle with a sufficient degree of certainty. Existing models which have been de-veloped to fit these needs are often constrained to specific scales or purposes and thus can not be easily adapted to meet different challenges. As a solution for flexible and modularised model development and application, the Object Modeling System (OMS has been developed in a joint approach by the USDA-ARS, GPSRU (Fort Collins, CO, USA, USGS (Denver, CO, USA, and the FSU (Jena, Germany. The OMS provides a modern modelling framework which allows the implementation of single process components to be compiled and applied as custom tailored model assemblies. This paper describes basic principles of the OMS and its main components and explains in more detail how the problems during coupling of models or model components are solved inside the system. It highlights the integration of different spatial and temporal scales by their representation as spatial modelling entities embedded into time compound components. As an exam-ple the implementation of the hydrological model J2000 is discussed.

Towards simplification of hydrologic modeling: Identification of dominant processes

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Markstrom, Steven; Hay, Lauren E.; Clark, Martyn P.

2016-01-01

The Precipitation–Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), a distributed-parameter hydrologic model, has been applied to the conterminous US (CONUS). Parameter sensitivity analysis was used to identify: (1) the sensitive input parameters and (2) particular model output variables that could be associated with the dominant hydrologic process(es). Sensitivity values of 35 PRMS calibration parameters were computed using the Fourier amplitude sensitivity test procedure on 110 000 independent hydrologically based spatial modeling units covering the CONUS and then summarized to process (snowmelt, surface runoff, infiltration, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, interflow, baseflow, and runoff) and model performance statistic (mean, coefficient of variation, and autoregressive lag 1). Identified parameters and processes provide insight into model performance at the location of each unit and allow the modeler to identify the most dominant process on the basis of which processes are associated with the most sensitive parameters. The results of this study indicate that: (1) the choice of performance statistic and output variables has a strong influence on parameter sensitivity, (2) the apparent model complexity to the modeler can be reduced by focusing on those processes that are associated with sensitive parameters and disregarding those that are not, (3) different processes require different numbers of parameters for simulation, and (4) some sensitive parameters influence only one hydrologic process, while others may influence many

Bayesian analysis of data and model error in rainfall-runoff hydrological models

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Kavetski, D.; Franks, S. W.; Kuczera, G.

2004-12-01

A major unresolved issue in the identification and use of conceptual hydrologic models is realistic description of uncertainty in the data and model structure. In particular, hydrologic parameters often cannot be measured directly and must be inferred (calibrated) from observed forcing/response data (typically, rainfall and runoff). However, rainfall varies significantly in space and time, yet is often estimated from sparse gauge networks. Recent work showed that current calibration methods (e.g., standard least squares, multi-objective calibration, generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation) ignore forcing uncertainty and assume that the rainfall is known exactly. Consequently, they can yield strongly biased and misleading parameter estimates. This deficiency confounds attempts to reliably test model hypotheses, to generalize results across catchments (the regionalization problem) and to quantify predictive uncertainty when the hydrologic model is extrapolated. This paper continues the development of a Bayesian total error analysis (BATEA) methodology for the calibration and identification of hydrologic models, which explicitly incorporates the uncertainty in both the forcing and response data, and allows systematic model comparison based on residual model errors and formal Bayesian hypothesis testing (e.g., using Bayes factors). BATEA is based on explicit stochastic models for both forcing and response uncertainty, whereas current techniques focus solely on response errors. Hence, unlike existing methods, the BATEA parameter equations directly reflect the modeler's confidence in all the data. We compare several approaches to approximating the parameter distributions: a) full Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods and b) simplified approaches based on linear approximations. Studies using synthetic and real data from the US and Australia show that BATEA systematically reduces the parameter bias, leads to more meaningful model fits and allows model comparison taking

Hydrological response to dynamical downscaling of climate model outputs: A case study for western and eastern snowmelt-dominated Canada catchments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Magali Troin

2015-09-01

New hydrological insights for the region: Results show that the CRCM captures the primary features of observed climate, but there are significant biases. Most noteworthy are a positive bias in precipitation and a negative bias in temperature over the BC basin. When looking at the hydrological modeling results, the benefit of using the RCM versus GCMs emerged distinctly for the mountainous BC basin where the RCM is preferred over the GCMs. The sensitivity experiments show that uncertainty in the GCM/RCM’s internal variability must be assessed to provide suitable regional hydrological responses to climate change.

Ice sheet hydrology - a review

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jansson, Peter; Naeslund, Jens-Ove; Rodhe, Lars

2007-03-01

This report summarizes the theoretical knowledge on water flow in and beneath glaciers and ice sheets and how these theories are applied in models to simulate the hydrology of ice sheets. The purpose is to present the state of knowledge and, perhaps more importantly, identify the gaps in our understanding of ice sheet hydrology. Many general concepts in hydrology and hydraulics are applicable to water flow in glaciers. However, the unique situation of having the liquid phase flowing in conduits of the solid phase of the same material, water, is not a commonly occurring phenomena. This situation means that the heat exchange between the phases and the resulting phase changes also have to be accounted for in the analysis. The fact that the solidus in the pressure-temperature dependent phase diagram of water has a negative slope provides further complications. Ice can thus melt or freeze from both temperature and pressure variations or variations in both. In order to provide details of the current understanding of water flow in conjunction with deforming ice and to provide understanding for the development of ideas and models, emphasis has been put on the mathematical treatments, which are reproduced in detail. Qualitative results corroborating theory or, perhaps more often, questioning the simplifications made in theory, are also given. The overarching problem with our knowledge of glacier hydrology is the gap between the local theories of processes and the general flow of water in glaciers and ice sheets. Water is often channelized in non-stationary conduits through the ice, features which due to their minute size relative to the size of glaciers and ice sheets are difficult to incorporate in spatially larger models. Since the dynamic response of ice sheets to global warming is becoming a key issue in, e.g. sea-level change studies, the problems of the coupling between the hydrology of an ice sheet and its dynamics is steadily gaining interest. New work is emerging

Ice sheet hydrology - a review

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jansson, Peter; Naeslund, Jens-Ove [Dept. of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm Univ., Stockholm (Sweden); Rodhe, Lars [Geological Survey of Sweden, Uppsala (Sweden)

2007-03-15

This report summarizes the theoretical knowledge on water flow in and beneath glaciers and ice sheets and how these theories are applied in models to simulate the hydrology of ice sheets. The purpose is to present the state of knowledge and, perhaps more importantly, identify the gaps in our understanding of ice sheet hydrology. Many general concepts in hydrology and hydraulics are applicable to water flow in glaciers. However, the unique situation of having the liquid phase flowing in conduits of the solid phase of the same material, water, is not a commonly occurring phenomena. This situation means that the heat exchange between the phases and the resulting phase changes also have to be accounted for in the analysis. The fact that the solidus in the pressure-temperature dependent phase diagram of water has a negative slope provides further complications. Ice can thus melt or freeze from both temperature and pressure variations or variations in both. In order to provide details of the current understanding of water flow in conjunction with deforming ice and to provide understanding for the development of ideas and models, emphasis has been put on the mathematical treatments, which are reproduced in detail. Qualitative results corroborating theory or, perhaps more often, questioning the simplifications made in theory, are also given. The overarching problem with our knowledge of glacier hydrology is the gap between the local theories of processes and the general flow of water in glaciers and ice sheets. Water is often channelized in non-stationary conduits through the ice, features which due to their minute size relative to the size of glaciers and ice sheets are difficult to incorporate in spatially larger models. Since the dynamic response of ice sheets to global warming is becoming a key issue in, e.g. sea-level change studies, the problems of the coupling between the hydrology of an ice sheet and its dynamics is steadily gaining interest. New work is emerging

Hydrological functioning of West-African inland valleys explored with a critical zone model

Science.gov (United States)

Hector, B.; Cohard, J. M.; Séguis, L.; Peugeot, C.; Galle, S.

2017-12-01

In west Africa, recurrent floods are still a major issue, and hydropower has been recognized as an important development pathway. Furthermore, inland valleys carry an important agronomic potential, which could meet the necessary increase of the crop production associated with the strong demographic rates of the region. This can lead to land cover and subsequent hydrologic changes. However, the hydrological role of the inland valleys in the humid, hard rock-dominated Sudanian area is not yet well understood, specifically for streamflow (Q) generation processes. We address both the questions of the hydrological functioning of inland valleys in the Sudanian area of West-Africa and the impact of land cover changes on these systems through deterministic sensitivity experiments using a physically-based critical zone model (ParFlow-CLM) applied on a synthetic catchment which comprises an inland valley. The conceptual lithological/pedological model for the catchment includes the main features of such a hydrological elementary unit derived from the literature and from a previously published model based on data from a highly instrumented elementary catchment. Model forcings and parameters are based on data from the AMMA-CATCH observation service and multiple field experiments. We found yearly water budgets were much more sensitive to vegetation distribution than lithology features of the inland valley (presence of the low permeability layer commonly found below the inland valley and the hydrodynamic properties of upstream and lateral areas). Yearly evapotranspiration budget between a fully tree-covered and an herbaceous-covered catchment increases between 6 and 21% of the precipitation of the year (depending on the tested cases) which reduces considerably the yearly streamflow budgets ( 30%). On the other hand, the lithology distribution has clear impacts on the spatial distribution of water storage dynamics.

JAMS - a software platform for modular hydrological modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Kralisch, Sven; Fischer, Christian

2015-04-01

Current challenges of understanding and assessing the impacts of climate and land use changes on environmental systems demand for an ever-increasing integration of data and process knowledge in corresponding simulation models. Software frameworks that allow for a seamless creation of integrated models based on less complex components (domain models, process simulation routines) have therefore gained increasing attention during the last decade. JAMS is an Open-Source software framework that has been especially designed to cope with the challenges of eco-hydrological modelling. This is reflected by (i) its flexible approach for representing time and space, (ii) a strong separation of process simulation components from the declarative description of more complex models using domain specific XML, (iii) powerful analysis and visualization functions for spatial and temporal input and output data, and (iv) parameter optimization and uncertainty analysis functions commonly used in environmental modelling. Based on JAMS, different hydrological and nutrient-transport simulation models were implemented and successfully applied during the last years. We will present the JAMS core concepts and give an overview of models, simulation components and support tools available for that framework. Sample applications will be used to underline the advantages of component-based model designs and to show how JAMS can be used to address the challenges of integrated hydrological modelling.

Hydrology under change: an evaluation protocol to investigate how hydrological models deal with changing catchments

Science.gov (United States)

G. Thirel; V. Andreassian; C. Perrin; J.-N. Audouy; L. Berthet; Pamela Edwards; N. Folton; C. Furusho; A. Kuentz; J. Lerat; G. Lindstrom; E. Martin; T. Mathevet; R. Merz; J. Parajka; D. Ruelland; J. Vaze

2015-01-01

Testing hydrological models under changing conditions is essential to evaluate their ability to cope with changing catchments and their suitability for impact studies. With this perspective in mind, a workshop dedicated to this issue was held at the 2013 General Assembly of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) in Göteborg, Sweden, in July 2013...

Towards simplification of hydrologic modeling: identification of dominant processes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. L. Markstrom

2016-11-01

Full Text Available parameter hydrologic model, has been applied to the conterminous US (CONUS. Parameter sensitivity analysis was used to identify: (1 the sensitive input parameters and (2 particular model output variables that could be associated with the dominant hydrologic process(es. Sensitivity values of 35 PRMS calibration parameters were computed using the Fourier amplitude sensitivity test procedure on 110 000 independent hydrologically based spatial modeling units covering the CONUS and then summarized to process (snowmelt, surface runoff, infiltration, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, interflow, baseflow, and runoff and model performance statistic (mean, coefficient of variation, and autoregressive lag 1. Identified parameters and processes provide insight into model performance at the location of each unit and allow the modeler to identify the most dominant process on the basis of which processes are associated with the most sensitive parameters. The results of this study indicate that: (1 the choice of performance statistic and output variables has a strong influence on parameter sensitivity, (2 the apparent model complexity to the modeler can be reduced by focusing on those processes that are associated with sensitive parameters and disregarding those that are not, (3 different processes require different numbers of parameters for simulation, and (4 some sensitive parameters influence only one hydrologic process, while others may influence many.

A sensitivity analysis of regional and small watershed hydrologic models

Science.gov (United States)

Ambaruch, R.; Salomonson, V. V.; Simmons, J. W.

1975-01-01

Continuous simulation models of the hydrologic behavior of watersheds are important tools in several practical applications such as hydroelectric power planning, navigation, and flood control. Several recent studies have addressed the feasibility of using remote earth observations as sources of input data for hydrologic models. The objective of the study reported here was to determine how accurately remotely sensed measurements must be to provide inputs to hydrologic models of watersheds, within the tolerances needed for acceptably accurate synthesis of streamflow by the models. The study objective was achieved by performing a series of sensitivity analyses using continuous simulation models of three watersheds. The sensitivity analysis showed quantitatively how variations in each of 46 model inputs and parameters affect simulation accuracy with respect to five different performance indices.

Examining dynamic interactions among experimental factors influencing hydrologic data assimilation with the ensemble Kalman filter

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, S.; Huang, G. H.; Baetz, B. W.; Cai, X. M.; Ancell, B. C.; Fan, Y. R.

2017-11-01

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is recognized as a powerful data assimilation technique that generates an ensemble of model variables through stochastic perturbations of forcing data and observations. However, relatively little guidance exists with regard to the proper specification of the magnitude of the perturbation and the ensemble size, posing a significant challenge in optimally implementing the EnKF. This paper presents a robust data assimilation system (RDAS), in which a multi-factorial design of the EnKF experiments is first proposed for hydrologic ensemble predictions. A multi-way analysis of variance is then used to examine potential interactions among factors affecting the EnKF experiments, achieving optimality of the RDAS with maximized performance of hydrologic predictions. The RDAS is applied to the Xiangxi River watershed which is the most representative watershed in China's Three Gorges Reservoir region to demonstrate its validity and applicability. Results reveal that the pairwise interaction between perturbed precipitation and streamflow observations has the most significant impact on the performance of the EnKF system, and their interactions vary dynamically across different settings of the ensemble size and the evapotranspiration perturbation. In addition, the interactions among experimental factors vary greatly in magnitude and direction depending on different statistical metrics for model evaluation including the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and the Box-Cox transformed root-mean-square error. It is thus necessary to test various evaluation metrics in order to enhance the robustness of hydrologic prediction systems.

Hydrology and phosphorus transport simulation in a lowland polder by a coupled modeling system.

Science.gov (United States)

Yan, Renhua; Huang, Jiacong; Li, Lingling; Gao, Junfeng

2017-08-01

Modeling the rain-runoff processes and phosphorus transport processes in lowland polders is critical in finding reasonable measures to alleviate the eutrophication problem of downstream rivers and lakes. This study develops a lowland Polder Hydrology and Phosphorus modeling System (PHPS) by coupling the WALRUS-paddy model and an improved phosphorus module of a Phosphorus Dynamic model for lowland Polder systems (PDP). It considers some important hydrological characteristics, such as groundwater-unsaturated zone coupling, groundwater-surface water feedback, human-controlled irrigation and discharge, and detailed physical and biochemical cycles of phosphorus in surface water. The application of the model in the Jianwei polder shows that the simulated phosphorus matches well with the measured values. The high precision of this model combined with its low input data requirement and efficient computation make it practical and easy to the water resources management of Chinese polders. Parameter sensitivity analysis demonstrates that K uptake , c Q2 , c W1 , and c Q1 exert a significant effect on the modeled results, whereas K resuspensionMax , K settling , and K mineralization have little effect on the modeled total phosphorus. Among the three types of uncertainties (i.e., parameter, initial condition, and forcing uncertainties), forcing uncertainty produces the strongest effect on the simulated phosphorus. Based on the analysis result of annual phosphorus balance when considering the high import from irrigation and fertilization, lowland polder is capable of retaining phosphorus and reducing phosphorus export to surrounding aquatic ecosystems because of their special hydrological regulation regime. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using Modeling Tools to Better Understand Permafrost Hydrology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Clément Fabre

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Modification of the hydrological cycle and, subsequently, of other global cycles is expected in Arctic watersheds owing to global change. Future climate scenarios imply widespread permafrost degradation caused by an increase in air temperature, and the expected effect on permafrost hydrology is immense. This study aims at analyzing, and quantifying the daily water transfer in the largest Arctic river system, the Yenisei River in central Siberia, Russia, partially underlain by permafrost. The semi-distributed SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool hydrological model has been calibrated and validated at a daily time step in historical discharge simulations for the 2003–2014 period. The model parameters have been adjusted to embrace the hydrological features of permafrost. SWAT is shown capable to estimate water fluxes at a daily time step, especially during unfrozen periods, once are considered specific climatic and soils conditions adapted to a permafrost watershed. The model simulates average annual contribution to runoff of 263 millimeters per year (mm yr−1 distributed as 152 mm yr−1 (58% of surface runoff, 103 mm yr−1 (39% of lateral flow and 8 mm yr−1 (3% of return flow from the aquifer. These results are integrated on a reduced basin area downstream from large dams and are closer to observations than previous modeling exercises.

Socio-hydrologic modeling to understand and mediate the competition for water between agriculture development and environmental health: Murrumbidgee River basin, Australia

Science.gov (United States)

van Emmerik, T. H. M.; Li, Z.; Sivapalan, M.; Pande, S.; Kandasamy, J.; Savenije, H. H. G.; Chanan, A.; Vigneswaran, S.

2014-10-01

Competition for water between humans and ecosystems is set to become a flash point in the coming decades in many parts of the world. An entirely new and comprehensive quantitative framework is needed to establish a holistic understanding of that competition, thereby enabling the development of effective mediation strategies. This paper presents a modeling study centered on the Murrumbidgee River basin (MRB). The MRB has witnessed a unique system dynamics over the last 100 years as a result of interactions between patterns of water management and climate driven hydrological variability. Data analysis has revealed a pendulum swing between agricultural development and restoration of environmental health and ecosystem services over different stages of basin-scale water resource development. A parsimonious, stylized, quasi-distributed coupled socio-hydrologic system model that simulates the two-way coupling between human and hydrological systems of the MRB is used to mimic and explain dominant features of the pendulum swing. The model consists of coupled nonlinear ordinary differential equations that describe the interaction between five state variables that govern the co-evolution: reservoir storage, irrigated area, human population, ecosystem health, and environmental awareness. The model simulations track the propagation of the external climatic and socio-economic drivers through this coupled, complex system to the emergence of the pendulum swing. The model results point to a competition between human "productive" and environmental "restorative" forces that underpin the pendulum swing. Both the forces are endogenous, i.e., generated by the system dynamics in response to external drivers and mediated by humans through technology change and environmental awareness, respectively. Sensitivity analysis carried out with the model further reveals that socio-hydrologic modeling can be used as a tool to explain or gain insight into observed co-evolutionary dynamics of diverse

Hydrological catchment modelling: past, present and future

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

2007-01-01

Full Text Available This paper discusses basic issues in hydrological modelling and flood forecasting, ranging from the roles of physically-based and data-driven rainfall runoff models, to the concepts of predictive uncertainty and equifinality and their implications. The evolution of a wide range of hydrological catchment models employing the physically meaningful and data-driven approaches introduces the need for objective test beds or benchmarks to assess the merits of the different models in reconciling the alternative approaches. In addition, the paper analyses uncertainty in models and predictions by clarifying the meaning of uncertainty, by distinguishing between parameter and predictive uncertainty and by demonstrating how the concept of equifinality must be addressed by appropriate and robust inference approaches. Finally, the importance of predictive uncertainty in the decision making process is highlighted together with possible approaches aimed at overcoming the diffidence of end-users.

Improving Permafrost Hydrology Prediction Through Data-Model Integration

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, C. J.; Andresen, C. G.; Atchley, A. L.; Bolton, W. R.; Busey, R.; Coon, E.; Charsley-Groffman, L.

2017-12-01

The CMIP5 Earth System Models were unable to adequately predict the fate of the 16GT of permafrost carbon in a warming climate due to poor representation of Arctic ecosystem processes. The DOE Office of Science Next Generation Ecosystem Experiment, NGEE-Arctic project aims to reduce uncertainty in the Arctic carbon cycle and its impact on the Earth's climate system by improved representation of the coupled physical, chemical and biological processes that drive how much buried carbon will be converted to CO2 and CH4, how fast this will happen, which form will dominate, and the degree to which increased plant productivity will offset increased soil carbon emissions. These processes fundamentally depend on permafrost thaw rate and its influence on surface and subsurface hydrology through thermal erosion, land subsidence and changes to groundwater flow pathways as soil, bedrock and alluvial pore ice and massive ground ice melts. LANL and its NGEE colleagues are co-developing data and models to better understand controls on permafrost degradation and improve prediction of the evolution of permafrost and its impact on Arctic hydrology. The LANL Advanced Terrestrial Simulator was built using a state of the art HPC software framework to enable the first fully coupled 3-dimensional surface-subsurface thermal-hydrology and land surface deformation simulations to simulate the evolution of the physical Arctic environment. Here we show how field data including hydrology, snow, vegetation, geochemistry and soil properties, are informing the development and application of the ATS to improve understanding of controls on permafrost stability and permafrost hydrology. The ATS is being used to inform parameterizations of complex coupled physical, ecological and biogeochemical processes for implementation in the DOE ACME land model, to better predict the role of changing Arctic hydrology on the global climate system. LA-UR-17-26566.

Sharing hydrological knowledge: an international comparison of hydrological models in the Meuse River Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Bouaziz, Laurène; Sperna Weiland, Frederiek; Drogue, Gilles; Brauer, Claudia; Weerts, Albrecht

2015-04-01

International collaboration between institutes and universities working and studying the same transboundary basin is needed for consensus building around possible effects of climate change and climate adaptation measures. Education, experience and expert knowledge of the hydrological community have resulted in the development of a great variety of model concepts, calibration and analysis techniques. Intercomparison could be a first step into consensus modeling or an ensemble based modeling strategy. Besides these practical objectives, such an intercomparison offers the opportunity to explore different ranges of models and learn from each other, hopefully increasing the insight into the hydrological processes that play a role in the transboundary basin. In this experiment, different international research groups applied their rainfall-runoff model in the Ourthe, a Belgium sub-catchment of the Meuse. Data preparation involved the interpolation of hourly precipitation station data collected and owned by the Service Public de Wallonie1 and the freely available E-OBS dataset for daily temperature (Haylock et al., 2008). Daily temperature was disaggregated to hourly values and potential evaporation was derived with the Hargreaves formula. The data was made available to the researchers through an FTP server. The protocol for the modeling involved a split-sample calibration and validation for pre-defined periods. Objective functions for calibration were fixed but the calibration algorithm was a free choice of the research groups. The selection of calibration algorithm was considered model dependent because lumped as well as computationally less efficient distributed models were used. For each model, an ensemble of best performing parameter sets was selected and several performance metrics enabled to assess the models' abilities to simulate discharge. The aim of this experiment is to identify those model components and structures that increase model performance and may best

Quantifying Direct and Indirect Impact of Future Climate on Sub-Arctic Hydrology

Science.gov (United States)

Endalamaw, A. M.; Bolton, W. R.; Young-Robertson, J. M.; Morton, D.; Hinzman, L. D.

2016-12-01

Projected future climate will have a significant impact on the hydrology of interior Alaskan sub-arctic watersheds, directly though the changes in precipitation and temperature patterns, and indirectly through the cryospheric and ecological impacts. Although the latter is the dominant factor controlling the hydrological processes in the interior Alaska sub-arctic, it is often overlooked in many climate change impact studies. In this study, we aim to quantify and compare the direct and indirect impact of the projected future climate on the hydrology of the interior Alaskan sub-arctic watersheds. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) meso-scale hydrological model will be implemented to simulate the hydrological processes, including runoff, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture dynamics in the Chena River Basin (area = 5400km2), located in the interior Alaska sub-arctic region. Permafrost and vegetation distribution will be derived from the Geophysical Institute Permafrost Lab (GIPL) model and the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Model (LPJ) model, respectively. All models will be calibrated and validated using historical data. The Scenario Network for Alaskan and Arctic Planning (SNAP) 5-model average projected climate data products will be used as forcing data for each of these models. The direct impact of climate change on hydrology is estimated using surface parameterization derived from the present day permafrost and vegetation distribution, and future climate forcing from SNAP projected climate data products. Along with the projected future climate, outputs of GIPL and LPJ will be incorporated into the VIC model to estimate the indirect and overall impact of future climate on the hydrology processes in the interior Alaskan sub-arctic watersheds. Finally, we will present the potential hydrological and ecological changes by the end of the 21st century.

Evaluation of drought propagation in an ensemble mean of large-scale hydrological models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Loon, van A.F.; Huijgevoort, van M.H.J.; Lanen, van H.A.J.

2012-01-01

Hydrological drought is increasingly studied using large-scale models. It is, however, not sure whether large-scale models reproduce the development of hydrological drought correctly. The pressing question is how well do large-scale models simulate the propagation from meteorological to hydrological

Improved regional-scale groundwater representation by the coupling of the mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM v5.7) to the groundwater model OpenGeoSys (OGS)

Science.gov (United States)

Jing, Miao; Heße, Falk; Kumar, Rohini; Wang, Wenqing; Fischer, Thomas; Walther, Marc; Zink, Matthias; Zech, Alraune; Samaniego, Luis; Kolditz, Olaf; Attinger, Sabine

2018-06-01

Most large-scale hydrologic models fall short in reproducing groundwater head dynamics and simulating transport process due to their oversimplified representation of groundwater flow. In this study, we aim to extend the applicability of the mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM v5.7) to subsurface hydrology by coupling it with the porous media simulator OpenGeoSys (OGS). The two models are one-way coupled through model interfaces GIS2FEM and RIV2FEM, by which the grid-based fluxes of groundwater recharge and the river-groundwater exchange generated by mHM are converted to fixed-flux boundary conditions of the groundwater model OGS. Specifically, the grid-based vertical reservoirs in mHM are completely preserved for the estimation of land-surface fluxes, while OGS acts as a plug-in to the original mHM modeling framework for groundwater flow and transport modeling. The applicability of the coupled model (mHM-OGS v1.0) is evaluated by a case study in the central European mesoscale river basin - Nägelstedt. Different time steps, i.e., daily in mHM and monthly in OGS, are used to account for fast surface flow and slow groundwater flow. Model calibration is conducted following a two-step procedure using discharge for mHM and long-term mean of groundwater head measurements for OGS. Based on the model summary statistics, namely the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency (NSE), the mean absolute error (MAE), and the interquartile range error (QRE), the coupled model is able to satisfactorily represent the dynamics of discharge and groundwater heads at several locations across the study basin. Our exemplary calculations show that the one-way coupled model can take advantage of the spatially explicit modeling capabilities of surface and groundwater hydrologic models and provide an adequate representation of the spatiotemporal behaviors of groundwater storage and heads, thus making it a valuable tool for addressing water resources and management problems.

An approach to measure parameter sensitivity in watershed hydrologic modeling

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Abstract Hydrologic responses vary spatially and temporally according to watershed characteristics. In this study, the hydrologic models that we developed earlier...

A framework for human-hydrologic system model development integrating hydrology and water management: application to the Cutzamala water system in Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Wi, S.; Freeman, S.; Brown, C.

2017-12-01

This study presents a general approach to developing computational models of human-hydrologic systems where human modification of hydrologic surface processes are significant or dominant. A river basin system is represented by a network of human-hydrologic response units (HHRUs) identified based on locations where river regulations happen (e.g., reservoir operation and diversions). Natural and human processes in HHRUs are simulated in a holistic framework that integrates component models representing rainfall-runoff, river routing, reservoir operation, flow diversion and water use processes. We illustrate the approach in a case study of the Cutzamala water system (CWS) in Mexico, a complex inter-basin water transfer system supplying the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA). The human-hydrologic system model for CWS (CUTZSIM) is evaluated in terms of streamflow and reservoir storages measured across the CWS and to water supplied for MCMA. The CUTZSIM improves the representation of hydrology and river-operation interaction and, in so doing, advances evaluation of system-wide water management consequences under altered climatic and demand regimes. The integrated modeling framework enables evaluation and simulation of model errors throughout the river basin, including errors in representation of the human component processes. Heretofore, model error evaluation, predictive error intervals and the resultant improved understanding have been limited to hydrologic processes. The general framework represents an initial step towards fuller understanding and prediction of the many and varied processes that determine the hydrologic fluxes and state variables in real river basins.

Hydrology: The interdisciplinary science of water

Science.gov (United States)

Vogel, Richard M.; Lall, Upmanu; Cai, Ximing; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Weiskel, Peter K.; Hooper, Richard P.; Matalas, Nicholas C.

2015-01-01

We live in a world where biophysical and social processes are tightly coupled. Hydrologic systems change in response to a variety of natural and human forces such as climate variability and change, water use and water infrastructure, and land cover change. In turn, changes in hydrologic systems impact socioeconomic, ecological, and climate systems at a number of scales, leading to a coevolution of these interlinked systems. The Harvard Water Program, Hydrosociology, Integrated Water Resources Management, Ecohydrology, Hydromorphology, and Sociohydrology were all introduced to provide distinct, interdisciplinary perspectives on water problems to address the contemporary dynamics of human interaction with the hydrosphere and the evolution of the Earth’s hydrologic systems. Each of them addresses scientific, social, and engineering challenges related to how humans influence water systems and vice versa. There are now numerous examples in the literature of how holistic approaches can provide a structure and vision of the future of hydrology. We review selected examples, which taken together, describe the type of theoretical and applied integrated hydrologic analyses and associated curricular content required to address the societal issue of water resources sustainability. We describe a modern interdisciplinary science of hydrology needed to develop an in-depth understanding of the dynamics of the connectedness between human and natural systems and to determine effective solutions to resolve the complex water problems that the world faces today. Nearly, every theoretical hydrologic model introduced previously is in need of revision to accommodate how climate, land, vegetation, and socioeconomic factors interact, change, and evolve over time.

Hydrology team

Science.gov (United States)

Ragan, R.

1982-01-01

General problems faced by hydrologists when using historical records, real time data, statistical analysis, and system simulation in providing quantitative information on the temporal and spatial distribution of water are related to the limitations of these data. Major problem areas requiring multispectral imaging-based research to improve hydrology models involve: evapotranspiration rates and soil moisture dynamics for large areas; the three dimensional characteristics of bodies of water; flooding in wetlands; snow water equivalents; runoff and sediment yield from ungaged watersheds; storm rainfall; fluorescence and polarization of water and its contained substances; discriminating between sediment and chlorophyll in water; role of barrier island dynamics in coastal zone processes; the relationship between remotely measured surface roughness and hydraulic roughness of land surfaces and stream networks; and modeling the runoff process.

Hydrological Modeling of the Jiaoyi Watershed (China) Using HSPF Model

Science.gov (United States)

Yan, Chang-An; Zhang, Wanchang; Zhang, Zhijie

2014-01-01

A watershed hydrological model, hydrological simulation program-Fortran (HSPF), was applied to simulate the spatial and temporal variation of hydrological processes in the Jiaoyi watershed of Huaihe River Basin, the heaviest shortage of water resources and polluted area in China. The model was calibrated using the years 2001–2004 and validated with data from 2005 to 2006. Calibration and validation results showed that the model generally simulated mean monthly and daily runoff precisely due to the close matching hydrographs between simulated and observed runoff, as well as the excellent evaluation indicators such as Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), coefficient of correlation (R 2), and the relative error (RE). The similar simulation results between calibration and validation period showed that all the calibrated parameters had a certain representation in Jiaoyi watershed. Additionally, the simulation in rainy months was more accurate than the drought months. Another result in this paper was that HSPF was also capable of estimating the water balance components reasonably and realistically in space through the whole watershed. The calibrated model can be used to explore the effects of climate change scenarios and various watershed management practices on the water resources and water environment in the basin. PMID:25013863

WEB-DHM: A distributed biosphere hydrological model developed by coupling a simple biosphere scheme with a hillslope hydrological model

Science.gov (United States)

The coupling of land surface models and hydrological models potentially improves the land surface representation, benefiting both the streamflow prediction capabilities as well as providing improved estimates of water and energy fluxes into the atmosphere. In this study, the simple biosphere model 2...

Hydrological Process Simulation of Inland River Watershed: A Case Study of the Heihe River Basin with Multiple Hydrological Models

OpenAIRE

Lili Wang; Zhonggen Wang; Jingjie Yu; Yichi Zhang; Suzhen Dang

2018-01-01

Simulating the hydrological processes of an inland river basin can help provide the scientific guidance to the policies of water allocation among different subbasins and water resource management groups within the subbasins. However, it is difficult to simulate the hydrological processes of an inland river basin with hydrological models due to the non-consistent hydrological characteristics of the entire basin. This study presents a solution to this problem with a case study about the hydrolo...

Advances in Applications of Hierarchical Bayesian Methods with Hydrological Models

Science.gov (United States)

Alexander, R. B.; Schwarz, G. E.; Boyer, E. W.

2017-12-01

Mechanistic and empirical watershed models are increasingly used to inform water resource decisions. Growing access to historical stream measurements and data from in-situ sensor technologies has increased the need for improved techniques for coupling models with hydrological measurements. Techniques that account for the intrinsic uncertainties of both models and measurements are especially needed. Hierarchical Bayesian methods provide an efficient modeling tool for quantifying model and prediction uncertainties, including those associated with measurements. Hierarchical methods can also be used to explore spatial and temporal variations in model parameters and uncertainties that are informed by hydrological measurements. We used hierarchical Bayesian methods to develop a hybrid (statistical-mechanistic) SPARROW (SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes) model of long-term mean annual streamflow across diverse environmental and climatic drainages in 18 U.S. hydrological regions. Our application illustrates the use of a new generation of Bayesian methods that offer more advanced computational efficiencies than the prior generation. Evaluations of the effects of hierarchical (regional) variations in model coefficients and uncertainties on model accuracy indicates improved prediction accuracies (median of 10-50%) but primarily in humid eastern regions, where model uncertainties are one-third of those in arid western regions. Generally moderate regional variability is observed for most hierarchical coefficients. Accounting for measurement and structural uncertainties, using hierarchical state-space techniques, revealed the effects of spatially-heterogeneous, latent hydrological processes in the "localized" drainages between calibration sites; this improved model precision, with only minor changes in regional coefficients. Our study can inform advances in the use of hierarchical methods with hydrological models to improve their integration with stream

Ethiopian Central Rift Valley basin hydrologic modelling using HEC-HMS and ArcSWAT

Science.gov (United States)

Pascual-Ferrer, Jordi; Candela, Lucila; Pérez-Foguet, Agustí

2013-04-01

An Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) shall be applied to achieve a sustainable development, to increase population incomes without affecting lives of those who are highly dependent on the environment. First step should be to understand water dynamics at basin level, starting by modeling the basin water resources. For model implementation, a large number of data and parameters are required, but those are not always available, especially in some developing countries where different sources may have different data, there is lack of information on data collection, etc. The Ethiopian Central Rift Valley (CRV) is an endorheic basin covering an area of approximately 10,000 km2. For the period 1996-2005, the average annual volume of rainfall accounted for 9.1 Mm3, and evapotranspiration for 8 Mm3 (Jansen et al., 2007). From the environmental point of view, basin ecosystems are endangered due to human activities. Also, poverty is widespread all over the basin, with population mainly living from agriculture on a subsistence economy. Hence, there is an urgent need to set an IWRM, but datasets required for water dynamics simulation are not too reliable. In order to reduce uncertainty of numerical simulation, two semi-distributed open software hydrologic models were implemented: HEC-HMS and ArcSWAT. HEC-HMS was developed by the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACoE) Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC) to run precipitation-runoff simulations for a variety of applications in dendritic watershed systems. ArcSWAT includes the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, Arnold et al., 1998) model developed for the USDA Agricultural Research Service into ArcGIS (ESRI®). SWAT was developed to assess the impact of land management practices on large complex watersheds with varying soils, land use and management conditions over long periods of time (Neitsch et al., 2005). According to this, ArcSWAT would be the best option for IWRM implementation in the basin. However

Simulating temporal variations of nitrogen losses in river networks with a dynamic transport model unravels the coupled effects of hydrological and biogeochemical processes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mulholland, Patrick J [ORNL; Alexander, Richard [U.S. Geological Survey; Bohlke, John [U.S. Geological Survey; Boyer, Elizabeth [Pennsylvania State University; Harvey, Judson [U.S. Geological Survey; Seitzinger, Sybil [Rutgers University; Tobias, Craig [University of North Carolina, Wilmington; Tonitto, Christina [Cornell University; Wollheim, Wilfred [University of New Hampshire

2009-01-01

The importance of lotic systems as sinks for nitrogen inputs is well recognized. A fraction of nitrogen in streamflow is removed to the atmosphere via denitrification with the remainder exported in streamflow as nitrogen loads. At the watershed scale, there is a keen interest in understanding the factors that control the fate of nitrogen throughout the stream channel network, with particular attention to the processes that deliver large nitrogen loads to sensitive coastal ecosystems. We use a dynamic stream transport model to assess biogeochemical (nitrate loadings, concentration, temperature) and hydrological (discharge, depth, velocity) effects on reach-scale denitrification and nitrate removal in the river networks of two watersheds having widely differing levels of nitrate enrichment but nearly identical discharges. Stream denitrification is estimated by regression as a nonlinear function of nitrate concentration, streamflow, and temperature, using more than 300 published measurements from a variety of US streams. These relations are used in the stream transport model to characterize nitrate dynamics related to denitrification at a monthly time scale in the stream reaches of the two watersheds. Results indicate that the nitrate removal efficiency of streams, as measured by the percentage of the stream nitrate flux removed via denitrification per unit length of channel, is appreciably reduced during months with high discharge and nitrate flux and increases during months of low-discharge and flux. Biogeochemical factors, including land use, nitrate inputs, and stream concentrations, are a major control on reach-scale denitrification, evidenced by the disproportionately lower nitrate removal efficiency in streams of the highly nitrate-enriched watershed as compared with that in similarly sized streams in the less nitrate-enriched watershed. Sensitivity analyses reveal that these important biogeochemical factors and physical hydrological factors contribute nearly

eWaterCycle: A high resolution global hydrological model

Science.gov (United States)

van de Giesen, Nick; Bierkens, Marc; Drost, Niels; Hut, Rolf; Sutanudjaja, Edwin

2014-05-01

In 2013, the eWaterCycle project was started, which has the ambitious goal to run a high resolution global hydrological model. Starting point was the PCR-GLOBWB built by Utrecht University. The software behind this model will partially be re-engineered in order to enable to run it in a High Performance Computing (HPC) environment. The aim is to have a spatial resolution of 1km x 1km. The idea is also to run the model in real-time and forecasting mode, using data assimilation. An on-demand hydraulic model will be available for detailed flow and flood forecasting in support of navigation and disaster management. The project faces a set of scientific challenges. First, to enable the model to run in a HPC environment, model runs were analyzed to examine on which parts of the program most CPU time was spent. These parts were re-coded in Open MPI to allow for parallel processing. Different parallelization strategies are thinkable. In our case, it was decided to use watershed logic as a first step to distribute the analysis. There is rather limited recent experience with HPC in hydrology and there is much to be learned and adjusted, both on the hydrological modeling side and the computer science side. For example, an interesting early observation was that hydrological models are, due to their localized parameterization, much more memory intensive than models of sister-disciplines such as meteorology and oceanography. Because it would be deadly to have to swap information between CPU and hard drive, memory management becomes crucial. A standard Ensemble Kalman Filter (enKF) would, for example, have excessive memory demands. To circumvent these problems, an alternative to the enKF was developed that produces equivalent results. This presentation shows the most recent results from the model, including a 5km x 5km simulation and a proof of concept for the new data assimilation approach. Finally, some early ideas about financial sustainability of an operational global

Land surface modelling in hydrology and meteorology – lessons learned from the Baltic Basin

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. P. Graham

2000-01-01

Full Text Available By both tradition and purpose, the land parameterization schemes of hydrological and meteorological models differ greatly. Meteorologists are concerned primarily with solving the energy balance, whereas hydrologists are most interested in the water balance. Meteorological climate models typically have multi-layered soil parameterisation that solves temperature fluxes numerically with diffusive equations. The same approach is carried over to a similar treatment of water transport. Hydrological models are not usually so interested in soil temperatures, but must provide a reasonable representation of soil moisture to get runoff right. To treat the heterogeneity of the soil, many hydrological models use only one layer with a statistical representation of soil variability. Such a hydrological model can be used on large scales while taking subgrid variability into account. Hydrological models also include lateral transport of water – an imperative if' river discharge is to be estimated. The concept of a complexity chain for coupled modelling systems is introduced, together with considerations for mixing model components. Under BALTEX (Baltic Sea Experiment and SWECLIM (Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme, a large-scale hydrological model of runoff in the Baltic Basin is used to review atmospheric climate model simulations. This incorporates both the runoff record and hydrological modelling experience into atmospheric model development. Results from two models are shown. A conclusion is that the key to improved models may be less complexity. Perhaps the meteorological models should keep their multi-layered approach for modelling soil temperature, but add a simpler, yet physically consistent, hydrological approach for modelling snow processes and water transport in the soil. Keywords: land surface modelling; hydrological modelling; atmospheric climate models; subgrid variability; Baltic Basin

Development and comparison of Bayesian modularization method in uncertainty assessment of hydrological models

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Li, L.; Xu, C.-Y.; Engeland, K.

2012-04-01

With respect to model calibration, parameter estimation and analysis of uncertainty sources, different approaches have been used in hydrological models. Bayesian method is one of the most widely used methods for uncertainty assessment of hydrological models, which incorporates different sources of information into a single analysis through Bayesian theorem. However, none of these applications can well treat the uncertainty in extreme flows of hydrological models' simulations. This study proposes a Bayesian modularization method approach in uncertainty assessment of conceptual hydrological models by considering the extreme flows. It includes a comprehensive comparison and evaluation of uncertainty assessments by a new Bayesian modularization method approach and traditional Bayesian models using the Metropolis Hasting (MH) algorithm with the daily hydrological model WASMOD. Three likelihood functions are used in combination with traditional Bayesian: the AR (1) plus Normal and time period independent model (Model 1), the AR (1) plus Normal and time period dependent model (Model 2) and the AR (1) plus multi-normal model (Model 3). The results reveal that (1) the simulations derived from Bayesian modularization method are more accurate with the highest Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency value, and (2) the Bayesian modularization method performs best in uncertainty estimates of entire flows and in terms of the application and computational efficiency. The study thus introduces a new approach for reducing the extreme flow's effect on the discharge uncertainty assessment of hydrological models via Bayesian. Keywords: extreme flow, uncertainty assessment, Bayesian modularization, hydrological model, WASMOD

Socio-hydrological modelling of floods: investigating community resilience, adaptation capacity and risk

Science.gov (United States)

Ciullo, Alessio; Viglione, Alberto; Castellarin, Attilio

2016-04-01

Changes in flood risk occur because of changes in climate and hydrology, and in societal exposure and vulnerability. Research on change in flood risk has demonstrated that the mutual interactions and continuous feedbacks between floods and societies has to be taken into account in flood risk management. The present work builds on an existing conceptual model of an hypothetical city located in the proximity of a river, along whose floodplains the community evolves over time. The model reproduces the dynamic co-evolution of four variables: flooding, population density of the flooplain, amount of structural protection measures and memory of floods. These variables are then combined in a way to mimic the temporal change of community resilience, defined as the (inverse of the) amount of time for the community to recover from a shock, and adaptation capacity, defined as ratio between damages due to subsequent events. Also, temporal changing exposure, vulnerability and probability of flooding are also modelled, which results in a dynamically varying flood-risk. Examples are provided that show how factors such as collective memory and risk taking attitude influence the dynamics of community resilience, adaptation capacity and risk.

The progress of hydrology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chow, V T [University of Illinois, Urbana, IL (United States)

1967-05-15

This paper discusses mainly the challenge of hydrology, recent activities, events, and major problems in hydrology, and advances in hydrological techniques. New scientific knowledge and techniques developed in many modern scientific disciplines, and the recognition of the importance of hydrology in water-resources development enable and encourage the hydrologist to advance scientific hydrology. Many programmes to promote hydrology and to expand its attendant activities have been developed in recent years. Therefore, the activities in the United States of America, such as the Universities Council on Water Resources and the President's Water for Peace Programme, and the programmes in the International Hydrological Decade are mentioned. The most important advance in theoretical hydrology is the development of a new concept of dynamic sequential systems for the hydrological cycle, thus creating new fields of systems, parametric, and stochastic hydrology. Modern scientific instrumentation provide the hydrologist with better tools for solving his problems. The most important of these, such as electronic computers, remote sensing, and nuclear techniques are discussed. Today various major problems, both theoretical and practical, face the hydrologist. Theoretical problems concern the basic understanding of hydrological systems and the mathematical simulation and physical interpretation of hydrological phenomena. Major practical problems are numerous and diversified, but they are mostly related to the multiple-purpose development of water resources. Four central problematical subjects are discussed; namely, the effects of man on his environment, the dynamics of aqueous flow systems, hydrological transport mechanism, and groundwater hydrology. Also, the use of nuclear techniques in solving various hydrological problems is discussed. It is believed that the application of nuclear techniques would prove extremely valuable in helping solve problems, but their ultimate use in

The progress of hydrology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chow, V.T.

1967-01-01

This paper discusses mainly the challenge of hydrology, recent activities, events, and major problems in hydrology, and advances in hydrological techniques. New scientific knowledge and techniques developed in many modern scientific disciplines, and the recognition of the importance of hydrology in water-resources development enable and encourage the hydrologist to advance scientific hydrology. Many programmes to promote hydrology and to expand its attendant activities have been developed in recent years. Therefore, the activities in the United States of America, such as the Universities Council on Water Resources and the President's Water for Peace Programme, and the programmes in the International Hydrological Decade are mentioned. The most important advance in theoretical hydrology is the development of a new concept of dynamic sequential systems for the hydrological cycle, thus creating new fields of systems, parametric, and stochastic hydrology. Modern scientific instrumentation provide the hydrologist with better tools for solving his problems. The most important of these, such as electronic computers, remote sensing, and nuclear techniques are discussed. Today various major problems, both theoretical and practical, face the hydrologist. Theoretical problems concern the basic understanding of hydrological systems and the mathematical simulation and physical interpretation of hydrological phenomena. Major practical problems are numerous and diversified, but they are mostly related to the multiple-purpose development of water resources. Four central problematical subjects are discussed; namely, the effects of man on his environment, the dynamics of aqueous flow systems, hydrological transport mechanism, and groundwater hydrology. Also, the use of nuclear techniques in solving various hydrological problems is discussed. It is believed that the application of nuclear techniques would prove extremely valuable in helping solve problems, but their ultimate use in

Comparison of ensemble post-processing approaches, based on empirical and dynamical error modelisation of rainfall-runoff model forecasts

Science.gov (United States)

Chardon, J.; Mathevet, T.; Le Lay, M.; Gailhard, J.

2012-04-01

In the context of a national energy company (EDF : Electricité de France), hydro-meteorological forecasts are necessary to ensure safety and security of installations, meet environmental standards and improve water ressources management and decision making. Hydrological ensemble forecasts allow a better representation of meteorological and hydrological forecasts uncertainties and improve human expertise of hydrological forecasts, which is essential to synthesize available informations, coming from different meteorological and hydrological models and human experience. An operational hydrological ensemble forecasting chain has been developed at EDF since 2008 and is being used since 2010 on more than 30 watersheds in France. This ensemble forecasting chain is characterized ensemble pre-processing (rainfall and temperature) and post-processing (streamflow), where a large human expertise is solicited. The aim of this paper is to compare 2 hydrological ensemble post-processing methods developed at EDF in order improve ensemble forecasts reliability (similar to Monatanari &Brath, 2004; Schaefli et al., 2007). The aim of the post-processing methods is to dress hydrological ensemble forecasts with hydrological model uncertainties, based on perfect forecasts. The first method (called empirical approach) is based on a statistical modelisation of empirical error of perfect forecasts, by streamflow sub-samples of quantile class and lead-time. The second method (called dynamical approach) is based on streamflow sub-samples of quantile class and streamflow variation, and lead-time. On a set of 20 watersheds used for operational forecasts, results show that both approaches are necessary to ensure a good post-processing of hydrological ensemble, allowing a good improvement of reliability, skill and sharpness of ensemble forecasts. The comparison of the empirical and dynamical approaches shows the limits of the empirical approach which is not able to take into account hydrological

High-resolution downscaling for hydrological management

Science.gov (United States)

Ulbrich, Uwe; Rust, Henning; Meredith, Edmund; Kpogo-Nuwoklo, Komlan; Vagenas, Christos

2017-04-01

Hydrological modellers and water managers require high-resolution climate data to model regional hydrologies and how these may respond to future changes in the large-scale climate. The ability to successfully model such changes and, by extension, critical infrastructure planning is often impeded by a lack of suitable climate data. This typically takes the form of too-coarse data from climate models, which are not sufficiently detailed in either space or time to be able to support water management decisions and hydrological research. BINGO (Bringing INnovation in onGOing water management; ) aims to bridge the gap between the needs of hydrological modellers and planners, and the currently available range of climate data, with the overarching aim of providing adaptation strategies for climate change-related challenges. Producing the kilometre- and sub-daily-scale climate data needed by hydrologists through continuous simulations is generally computationally infeasible. To circumvent this hurdle, we adopt a two-pronged approach involving (1) selective dynamical downscaling and (2) conditional stochastic weather generators, with the former presented here. We take an event-based approach to downscaling in order to achieve the kilometre-scale input needed by hydrological modellers. Computational expenses are minimized by identifying extremal weather patterns for each BINGO research site in lower-resolution simulations and then only downscaling to the kilometre-scale (convection permitting) those events during which such patterns occur. Here we (1) outline the methodology behind the selection of the events, and (2) compare the modelled precipitation distribution and variability (preconditioned on the extremal weather patterns) with that found in observations.

Hydrologic control on redox and nitrogen dynamics in a peatland soil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rubol, Simonetta; Silver, Whendee L.; Bellin, Alberto

2012-01-01

Soils are a dominant source of nitrous oxide (N 2 O), a potent greenhouse gas. However, the complexity of the drivers of N 2 O production and emissions has hindered our ability to predict the magnitude and spatial dynamics of N 2 O fluxes. Soil moisture can be considered a key driver because it influences oxygen (O 2 ) supply, which feeds back on N 2 O sources (nitrification versus denitrification) and sinks (reduction to dinitrogen). Soil water content is directly linked to O 2 and redox potential, which regulate microbial metabolism and chemical transformations in the environment. Despite its importance, only a few laboratory studies have addressed the effects of hydrological transient dynamics on nitrogen (N) cycling in the vadose zone. To further investigate these aspects, we performed a long term experiment in a 1.5 m depth soil column supplemented by chamber experiments. With this experiment, we aimed to investigate how soil moisture dynamics influence redox sensitive N cycling in a peatland soil. As expected, increased soil moisture lowered O 2 concentrations and redox potential in the soil. The decline was more severe for prolonged saturated conditions than for short events and at deep than at the soil surface. Gaseous and dissolved N 2 O, dissolved nitrate (NO 3 − ) and ammonium (NH 4 + ) changed considerably along the soil column profile following trends in soil O 2 and redox potential. Hot spots of N 2 O concentrations corresponded to high variability in soil O 2 in the upper and lower parts of the column. Results from chamber experiments confirmed high NO 3 − reduction potential in soils, particularly from the bottom of the column. Under our experimental conditions, we identified a close coupling of soil O 2 and N 2 O dynamics, both of which lagged behind soil moisture changes. These results highlight the relationship among soil hydrologic properties, redox potential and N cycling, and suggest that models working at a daily scale need to consider

Robust estimation of hydrological model parameters

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Bárdossy

2008-11-01

Full Text Available The estimation of hydrological model parameters is a challenging task. With increasing capacity of computational power several complex optimization algorithms have emerged, but none of the algorithms gives a unique and very best parameter vector. The parameters of fitted hydrological models depend upon the input data. The quality of input data cannot be assured as there may be measurement errors for both input and state variables. In this study a methodology has been developed to find a set of robust parameter vectors for a hydrological model. To see the effect of observational error on parameters, stochastically generated synthetic measurement errors were applied to observed discharge and temperature data. With this modified data, the model was calibrated and the effect of measurement errors on parameters was analysed. It was found that the measurement errors have a significant effect on the best performing parameter vector. The erroneous data led to very different optimal parameter vectors. To overcome this problem and to find a set of robust parameter vectors, a geometrical approach based on Tukey's half space depth was used. The depth of the set of N randomly generated parameters was calculated with respect to the set with the best model performance (Nash-Sutclife efficiency was used for this study for each parameter vector. Based on the depth of parameter vectors, one can find a set of robust parameter vectors. The results show that the parameters chosen according to the above criteria have low sensitivity and perform well when transfered to a different time period. The method is demonstrated on the upper Neckar catchment in Germany. The conceptual HBV model was used for this study.

Numerical modeling of the agricultural-hydrologic system in Punjab, India

Science.gov (United States)

Nyblade, M.; Russo, T. A.; Zikatanov, L.; Zipp, K.

2017-12-01

The goal of food security for India's growing population is threatened by the decline in freshwater resources due to unsustainable water use for irrigation. The issue is acute in parts of Punjab, India, where small landholders produce a major quantity of India's food with declining groundwater resources. To further complicate this problem, other regions of the state are experiencing groundwater logging and salinization, and are reliant on canal systems for fresh water delivery. Due to the lack of water use records, groundwater consumption for this study is estimated with available data on crop yields, climate, and total canal water delivery. The hydrologic and agricultural systems are modeled using appropriate numerical methods and software. This is a state-wide hydrologic numerical model of Punjab that accounts for multiple aquifer layers, agricultural water demands, and interactions between the surface canal system and groundwater. To more accurately represent the drivers of agricultural production and therefore water use, we couple an economic crop optimization model with the hydrologic model. These tools will be used to assess and optimize crop choice scenarios based on farmer income, food production, and hydrologic system constraints. The results of these combined models can be used to further understand the hydrologic system response to government crop procurement policies and climate change, and to assess the effectiveness of possible water conservation solutions.

Research on Multi Hydrological Models Applicability and Modelling Data Uncertainty Analysis for Flash Flood Simulation in Hilly Area

Science.gov (United States)

Ye, L.; Wu, J.; Wang, L.; Song, T.; Ji, R.

2017-12-01

Flooding in small-scale watershed in hilly area is characterized by short time periods and rapid rise and recession due to the complex underlying surfaces, various climate type and strong effect of human activities. It is almost impossible for a single hydrological model to describe the variation of flooding in both time and space accurately for all the catchments in hilly area because the hydrological characteristics can vary significantly among different catchments. In this study, we compare the performance of 5 hydrological models with varying degrees of complexity for simulation of flash flood for 14 small-scale watershed in China in order to find the relationship between the applicability of the hydrological models and the catchments characteristics. Meanwhile, given the fact that the hydrological data is sparse in hilly area, the effect of precipitation data, DEM resolution and their interference on the uncertainty of flood simulation is also illustrated. In general, the results showed that the distributed hydrological model (HEC-HMS in this study) performed better than the lumped hydrological models. Xinajiang and API models had good simulation for the humid catchments when long-term and continuous rainfall data is provided. Dahuofang model can simulate the flood peak well while the runoff generation module is relatively poor. In addition, the effect of diverse modelling data on the simulations is not simply superposed, and there is a complex interaction effect among different modelling data. Overall, both the catchment hydrological characteristics and modelling data situation should be taken into consideration in order to choose the suitable hydrological model for flood simulation for small-scale catchment in hilly area.

A Regional Model for Malaria Vector Developmental Habitats Evaluated Using Explicit, Pond-Resolving Surface Hydrology Simulations.

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Ernest Ohene Asare

Full Text Available Dynamical malaria models can relate precipitation to the availability of vector breeding sites using simple models of surface hydrology. Here, a revised scheme is developed for the VECTRI malaria model, which is evaluated alongside the default scheme using a two year simulation by HYDREMATS, a 10 metre resolution, village-scale model that explicitly simulates individual ponds. Despite the simplicity of the two VECTRI surface hydrology parametrization schemes, they can reproduce the sub-seasonal evolution of fractional water coverage. Calibration of the model parameters is required to simulate the mean pond fraction correctly. The default VECTRI model tended to overestimate water fraction in periods subject to light rainfall events and underestimate it during periods of intense rainfall. This systematic error was improved in the revised scheme by including the a parametrization for surface run-off, such that light rainfall below the initial abstraction threshold does not contribute to ponds. After calibration of the pond model, the VECTRI model was able to simulate vector densities that compared well to the detailed agent based model contained in HYDREMATS without further parameter adjustment. Substituting local rain-gauge data with satellite-retrieved precipitation gave a reasonable approximation, raising the prospects for regional malaria simulations even in data sparse regions. However, further improvements could be made if a method can be derived to calibrate the key hydrology parameters of the pond model in each grid cell location, possibly also incorporating slope and soil texture.

A Regional Model for Malaria Vector Developmental Habitats Evaluated Using Explicit, Pond-Resolving Surface Hydrology Simulations.

Science.gov (United States)

Asare, Ernest Ohene; Tompkins, Adrian Mark; Bomblies, Arne

2016-01-01

Dynamical malaria models can relate precipitation to the availability of vector breeding sites using simple models of surface hydrology. Here, a revised scheme is developed for the VECTRI malaria model, which is evaluated alongside the default scheme using a two year simulation by HYDREMATS, a 10 metre resolution, village-scale model that explicitly simulates individual ponds. Despite the simplicity of the two VECTRI surface hydrology parametrization schemes, they can reproduce the sub-seasonal evolution of fractional water coverage. Calibration of the model parameters is required to simulate the mean pond fraction correctly. The default VECTRI model tended to overestimate water fraction in periods subject to light rainfall events and underestimate it during periods of intense rainfall. This systematic error was improved in the revised scheme by including the a parametrization for surface run-off, such that light rainfall below the initial abstraction threshold does not contribute to ponds. After calibration of the pond model, the VECTRI model was able to simulate vector densities that compared well to the detailed agent based model contained in HYDREMATS without further parameter adjustment. Substituting local rain-gauge data with satellite-retrieved precipitation gave a reasonable approximation, raising the prospects for regional malaria simulations even in data sparse regions. However, further improvements could be made if a method can be derived to calibrate the key hydrology parameters of the pond model in each grid cell location, possibly also incorporating slope and soil texture.

Some challenges in eco-hydrology

Science.gov (United States)

Porporato, A.

2007-12-01

The importance of the mutual interactions between biosphere in hydrosphere has become increasingly apparent in both the ecological and hydrological sciences. In hydrology, while the role of plants in controlling soil water balance has been recognized from some time, more subtle controls have also been realized, such as the impact of soil organic matter on soil water dynamics and soil properties, the plant control on infiltration, erosion, and geomorphology. Ecosystem dynamics and land-use changes have also been recognized to impact water availability and quality. On the other hand, biologists and ecologists have increased their attention towards the dynamics of the terrestrial water balance and its impact on plants (photosynthesis, plant growth and reproduction) as well as microbial life (and thus decomposition and the entire cycling of nutrients and carbon fluxes). In this eco-hydrological context, we discuss: (i) the need to distinguish complex from complicated eco- hydrologic behaviors, which are both expected to be present in systems with many degrees of freedom, spatial heterogeneity, nonlinearities and feedbacks (and with biological components). (ii) The use of ideas and tools from complex systems science and non-equilibrium statistical mechanics to explore possible emerging behaviors and patterns. (iii) The importance of intermittency and of the entire spectrum of eco-hydrologic fluctuations conferred by the system nonlinearities, and their connection to a possible theory of biologically- meaningful hydroclimatic extremes. (iv) The need for further research of basic questions yet unanswered (e.g., role of organic matter/roots on soil water balance and soil properties; vegetation control on infiltration; competition for water by plants; role of plant control on uptake (e.g., hydraulic lift)). (v) Ways to merge observations, minimalist models and complex numerical simulations as well as to increase communication of hydrologists with physicists, statisticians

Modeling the hydrologic impacts of forest harvesting on Florida flatwoods

Science.gov (United States)

Ge Sun; Hans Rierkerk; Nicholas B. Comerford

1998-01-01

The great temporal and spatial variability of pine flatwoods hydrology suggests traditional short-term field methods may not be effective in evaluating the hydrologic effects of forest management. The flatwoods model was developed, calibrated and validated specifically for the cypress wetland-pine upland landscape. The model was applied to two typical flatwoods sites...

Sensitivity of hydrological modeling to meteorological data and implications for climate change studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roy, L.G.; Roy, R.; Desrochers, G.E.; Vaillancourt, C.; Chartier, I.

2008-01-01

There are uncertainties associated with the use of hydrological models. This study aims to analyse one source of uncertainty associated with hydrological modeling, particularly in the context of climate change studies on water resources. Additional intent of this study is to compare the ability of some meteorological data sources, used in conjunction with an hydrological model, to reproduce the hydrologic regime of a watershed. A case study on a watershed of south-western Quebec, Canada using five different sources of meteorological data as input to an offline hydrological model are presented in this paper. Data used came from weather stations, NCEP reanalysis, ERA40 reanalysis and two Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) runs driven by NCEP and ERA40 reanalysis, providing atmospheric driving boundary conditions to this limited-area climate model. To investigate the sensitivity of simulated streamflow to different sources of meteorological data, we first calibrated the hydrological model with each of the meteorological data sets over the 1961-1980 period. The five different sets of parameters of the hydrological model were then used to simulate streamflow of the 1981-2000 validation period with the five meteorological data sets as inputs. The 25 simulated streamflow series have been compared to the observed streamflow of the watershed. The five meteorological data sets do not have the same ability, when used with the hydrological model, to reproduce streamflow. Our results show also that the hydrological model parameters used may have an important influence on results such as water balance, but it is linked with the differences that may have in the characteristics of the meteorological data used. For climate change impacts assessments on water resources, we have found that there is an uncertainty associated with the meteorological data used to calibrate the model. For expected changes on mean annual flows of the Chateauguay River, our results vary from a small

A fully integrated SWAT-MODFLOW hydrologic model

Science.gov (United States)

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and MODFLOW models are being used worldwide for managing surface and groundwater water resources. The SWAT models hydrological processes occurring at the surface including shallow aquifers, while MODFLOW simulate groundwater processes. However, neither SWAT ...

Interpolation of Missing Precipitation Data Using Kernel Estimations for Hydrologic Modeling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hyojin Lee

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Precipitation is the main factor that drives hydrologic modeling; therefore, missing precipitation data can cause malfunctions in hydrologic modeling. Although interpolation of missing precipitation data is recognized as an important research topic, only a few methods follow a regression approach. In this study, daily precipitation data were interpolated using five different kernel functions, namely, Epanechnikov, Quartic, Triweight, Tricube, and Cosine, to estimate missing precipitation data. This study also presents an assessment that compares estimation of missing precipitation data through Kth nearest neighborhood (KNN regression to the five different kernel estimations and their performance in simulating streamflow using the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT hydrologic model. The results show that the kernel approaches provide higher quality interpolation of precipitation data compared with the KNN regression approach, in terms of both statistical data assessment and hydrologic modeling performance.

Modelling the effect of land use change on hydrological model ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Modelling the effect of land use change on hydrological model parameters via linearized calibration method in the upstream of Huaihe River Basin, China. ... is presented, based on the analysis of the problems of the objective function of the ...

High-resolution numerical modeling of meteorological and hydrological conditions during May 2014 floods in Serbia

Science.gov (United States)

Vujadinovic, Mirjam; Vukovic, Ana; Cvetkovic, Bojan; Pejanovic, Goran; Nickovic, Slobodan; Djurdjevic, Vladimir; Rajkovic, Borivoj; Djordjevic, Marija

2015-04-01

In May 2014 west Balkan region was affected by catastrophic floods in Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and eastern parts of Croatia. Observed precipitation amount were extremely high, on many stations largest ever recorded. In the period from 12th to 18th of May, most of Serbia received between 50 to 100 mm of rainfall, while western parts of the country, which were influenced the most, had over 200 mm of rainfall, locally even more than 300 mm. This very intense precipitation came when the soil was already saturated after a very wet period during the second half of April and beginning of May, when most of Serbia received between 120 i 170 mm of rainfall. New abundant precipitation on already saturated soil increased surface and underground water flow, caused floods, soil erosion and landslides. High water levels, most of them record breaking, were measured on the Sava, Drina, Dunav, Kolubara, Ljig, Ub, Toplica, Tamnava, Jadar, Zapadna Morava, Velika Morava, Mlava and Pek river. Overall, two cities and 17 municipals were severely affected by the floods, 32000 people were evacuated from their homes, while 51 died. Material damage to the infrastructure, energy power system, crops, livestock funds and houses is estimated to more than 2 billion euro. Although the operational numerical weather forecast gave in generally good precipitation prediction, flood forecasting in this case was mainly done through the expert judgment rather than relying on dynamic hydrological modeling. We applied an integrated atmospheric-hydrologic modelling system to some of the most impacted catchments in order to timely simulate hydrological response, and examine its potentials as a flood warning system. The system is based on the Non-hydrostatic Multiscale Model NMMB, which is a numerical weather prediction model that can be used on a broad range of spatial and temporal scales. Its non-hydrostatic module allows high horizontal resolution and resolving cloud systems as well as large

Resilience of Socio-Hydrological Systems in Canadian Prairies to Agricultural Drainage: Policy Analysis and Modelling Approach

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Wheater, H. S.; Xu, L.; Gober, P.; Pomeroy, J. W.; Wong, J.

2017-12-01

Extensive agricultural drainage of lakes and wetlands in the Canadian Prairies has led to benefits for agricultural production, but has had a substantial influence on hydrological regimes and wetland extent. There is need for the potential impacts of current policy in changing the socio-hydrological resilience of prairie wetland basins in response to agricultural drainage to be examined. Whilst wetland drainage can increase agricultural productivity, it can also reduce stocks of natural capital and decrease ecosystem services, such as pollutant retention, habitat for waterfowls, carbon sequestration, and downstream flood attenuation. Effective policies that balance drainage benefits and negative externalities have to consider pricing. This is explored here using the Cold Regions Hydrological Model for hydrological simulations and the Inclusive Wealth approach for modelling in support of cost-benefit analysis. Inclusive wealth aggregates the value of natural, human, and technological assets used to produce social welfare. A shadow price, defined as the marginal change in social value for a marginal change in the current stock quantity, is used to valuate assets that contribute to social welfare. The shadow price of each asset is estimated by taking into account the social and economic benefits and external losses of wetland services caused by wetland drainage. The coupled model was applied to the Smith Creek Research Basin in south-eastern Saskatchewan, Canada where wetland drainage has caused major alterations of the hydrological regime including increased peak flows, discharge volumes and duration of streamflow. Changes in depressional storage in wetlands was used to calculate the corresponding changes of inclusive wealth over a 30-year period under the impacts from the limitation proposed in the Agricultural Water Management Strategy of Saskatchewan. The adjusted societal values of drainage demonstrate the dynamics between changes in hydrological conditions of

Hydrologic controls on equilibrium soil depths

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Nicótina, L.; Tarboton, D. G.; Tesfa, T. K.; Rinaldo, A.

2011-04-01

This paper deals with modeling the mutual feedbacks between runoff production and geomorphological processes and attributes that lead to patterns of equilibrium soil depth. Our primary goal is an attempt to describe spatial patterns of soil depth resulting from long-term interactions between hydrologic forcings and soil production, erosion, and sediment transport processes under the framework of landscape dynamic equilibrium. Another goal is to set the premises for exploiting the role of soil depths in shaping the hydrologic response of a catchment. The relevance of the study stems from the massive improvement in hydrologic predictions for ungauged basins that would be achieved by using directly soil depths derived from geomorphic features remotely measured and objectively manipulated. Hydrological processes are here described by explicitly accounting for local soil depths and detailed catchment topography. Geomorphological processes are described by means of well-studied geomorphic transport laws. The modeling approach is applied to the semiarid Dry Creek Experimental Watershed, located near Boise, Idaho. Modeled soil depths are compared with field data obtained from an extensive survey of the catchment. Our results show the ability of the model to describe properly the mean soil depth and the broad features of the distribution of measured data. However, local comparisons show significant scatter whose origins are discussed.

A data-model integration approach toward improved understanding on wetland functions and hydrological benefits at the catchment scale

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Yeo, I. Y.; Lang, M.; Lee, S.; Huang, C.; Jin, H.; McCarty, G.; Sadeghi, A.

2017-12-01

The wetland ecosystem plays crucial roles in improving hydrological function and ecological integrity for the downstream water and the surrounding landscape. However, changing behaviours and functioning of wetland ecosystems are poorly understood and extremely difficult to characterize. Improved understanding on hydrological behaviours of wetlands, considering their interaction with surrounding landscapes and impacts on downstream waters, is an essential first step toward closing the knowledge gap. We present an integrated wetland-catchment modelling study that capitalizes on recently developed inundation maps and other geospatial data. The aim of the data-model integration is to improve spatial prediction of wetland inundation and evaluate cumulative hydrological benefits at the catchment scale. In this paper, we highlight problems arising from data preparation, parameterization, and process representation in simulating wetlands within a distributed catchment model, and report the recent progress on mapping of wetland dynamics (i.e., inundation) using multiple remotely sensed data. We demonstrate the value of spatially explicit inundation information to develop site-specific wetland parameters and to evaluate model prediction at multi-spatial and temporal scales. This spatial data-model integrated framework is tested using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with improved wetland extension, and applied for an agricultural watershed in the Mid-Atlantic Coastal Plain, USA. This study illustrates necessity of spatially distributed information and a data integrated modelling approach to predict inundation of wetlands and hydrologic function at the local landscape scale, where monitoring and conservation decision making take place.

Spatially Distributed Assimilation of Remotely Sensed Leaf Area Index and Potential Evapotranspiration for Hydrologic Modeling in Wetland Landscapes

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Rajib, A.; Evenson, G. R.; Golden, H. E.; Lane, C.

2017-12-01

Evapotranspiration (ET), a highly dynamic flux in wetland landscapes, regulates the accuracy of surface/sub-surface runoff simulation in a hydrologic model. Accordingly, considerable uncertainty in simulating ET-related processes remains, including our limited ability to incorporate realistic ground conditions, particularly those involved with complex land-atmosphere feedbacks, vegetation growth, and energy balances. Uncertainty persists despite using high resolution topography and/or detailed land use data. Thus, a good hydrologic model can produce right answers for wrong reasons. In this study, we develop an efficient approach for multi-variable assimilation of remotely sensed earth observations (EOs) into a hydrologic model and apply it in the 1700 km2 Pipestem Creek watershed in the Prairie Pothole Region of North Dakota, USA. Our goal is to employ EOs, specifically Leaf Area Index (LAI) and Potential Evapotranspiration (PET), as surrogates for the aforementioned processes without overruling the model's built-in physical/semi-empirical process conceptualizations. To do this, we modified the source code of an already-improved version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for wetland hydrology (Evenson et al. 2016 HP 30(22):4168) to directly assimilate remotely-sensed LAI and PET (obtained from the 500 m and 1 km Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) gridded products, respectively) into each model Hydrologic Response Unit (HRU). Two configurations of the model, one with and one without EO assimilation, are calibrated against streamflow observations at the watershed outlet. Spatio-temporal changes in the HRU-level water balance, based on calibrated outputs, are evaluated using MODIS Actual Evapotranspiration (AET) as a reference. It is expected that the model configuration having remotely sensed LAI and PET, will simulate more realistic land-atmosphere feedbacks, vegetation growth and energy balance. As a result, this will decrease simulated

Modelling water use in global hydrological models: review, challenges and directions

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Bierkens, M. F.; de Graaf, I.; Wada, Y.; Wanders, N.; Van Beek, L. P.

2017-12-01

During the late 1980s and early 1990s, awareness of the shortage of global water resources lead to the first detailed global water resources assessments using regional statistics of water use and observations of meteorological and hydrological variables. Shortly thereafter, the first macroscale hydrological models (MHM) appeared. In these models, blue water (i.e., surface water and renewable groundwater) availability was calculated by accumulating runoff over a stream network and comparing it with population densities or with estimated water demand for agriculture, industry and households. In this talk we review the evolution of human impact modelling in global land models with a focus on global water resources, touching upon developments of the last 15 years: i.e. calculating human water scarcity; estimating groundwater depletion; adding dams and reservoirs; fully integrating water use (demand, withdrawal, consumption, return flow) in the hydrology; simulating the effects of land use change. We show example studies for each of these steps. We identify We identify major challenges that hamper the further development of integrated water resources modelling. Examples of these are: 1) simulating reservoir operations; 2) including local infrastructure and redistribution; 3) using the correct allocations rules; 4) projecting future water demand and water use. For each of these challenges we signify promising directions for further research.

A coupled stochastic rainfall-evapotranspiration model for hydrological impact analysis

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Pham, Minh Tu; Vernieuwe, Hilde; De Baets, Bernard; Verhoest, Niko E. C.

2018-02-01

A hydrological impact analysis concerns the study of the consequences of certain scenarios on one or more variables or fluxes in the hydrological cycle. In such an exercise, discharge is often considered, as floods originating from extremely high discharges often cause damage. Investigating the impact of extreme discharges generally requires long time series of precipitation and evapotranspiration to be used to force a rainfall-runoff model. However, such kinds of data may not be available and one should resort to stochastically generated time series, even though the impact of using such data on the overall discharge, and especially on the extreme discharge events, is not well studied. In this paper, stochastically generated rainfall and corresponding evapotranspiration time series, generated by means of vine copulas, are used to force a simple conceptual hydrological model. The results obtained are comparable to the modelled discharge using observed forcing data. Yet, uncertainties in the modelled discharge increase with an increasing number of stochastically generated time series used. Notwithstanding this finding, it can be concluded that using a coupled stochastic rainfall-evapotranspiration model has great potential for hydrological impact analysis.

Effects of temporal and spatial resolution of calibration data on integrated hydrologic water quality model identification

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Jiang, Sanyuan; Jomaa, Seifeddine; Büttner, Olaf; Rode, Michael

2014-05-01

Hydrological water quality modeling is increasingly used for investigating runoff and nutrient transport processes as well as watershed management but it is mostly unclear how data availablity determins model identification. In this study, the HYPE (HYdrological Predictions for the Environment) model, which is a process-based, semi-distributed hydrological water quality model, was applied in two different mesoscale catchments (Selke (463 km2) and Weida (99 km2)) located in central Germany to simulate discharge and inorganic nitrogen (IN) transport. PEST and DREAM(ZS) were combined with the HYPE model to conduct parameter calibration and uncertainty analysis. Split-sample test was used for model calibration (1994-1999) and validation (1999-2004). IN concentration and daily IN load were found to be highly correlated with discharge, indicating that IN leaching is mainly controlled by runoff. Both dynamics and balances of water and IN load were well captured with NSE greater than 0.83 during validation period. Multi-objective calibration (calibrating hydrological and water quality parameters simultaneously) was found to outperform step-wise calibration in terms of model robustness. Multi-site calibration was able to improve model performance at internal sites, decrease parameter posterior uncertainty and prediction uncertainty. Nitrogen-process parameters calibrated using continuous daily averages of nitrate-N concentration observations produced better and more robust simulations of IN concentration and load, lower posterior parameter uncertainty and IN concentration prediction uncertainty compared to the calibration against uncontinuous biweekly nitrate-N concentration measurements. Both PEST and DREAM(ZS) are efficient in parameter calibration. However, DREAM(ZS) is more sound in terms of parameter identification and uncertainty analysis than PEST because of its capability to evolve parameter posterior distributions and estimate prediction uncertainty based on global

LIS-HYMAP coupled Hydrological Modeling in the Nile River Basin and the Greater Horn of Africa

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Jung, H. C.; Getirana, A.; Policelli, F. S.

2015-12-01

Water scarcity and resources in Africa have been exacerbated by periodic droughts and floods. However, few studies show the quantitative analysis of water balance or basin-scale hydrological modeling in Northeast Africa. The NASA Land Information System (LIS) is implemented to simulate land surface processes in the Nile River Basin and the Greater Horn of Africa. In this context, the Noah land surface model (LSM) and the Hydrological Modeling and Analysis Platform (HYMAP) are used to reproduce the water budget and surface water (rivers and floodplains) dynamics in that region. The Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) meteorological dataset is used to force the system . Due to the unavailability of recent ground-based observations, satellite data are considered to evaluate first model outputs. Water levels at 10 Envisat virtual stations and water discharges at a gauging station are used to provide model performance coefficients (e.g. Nash-Sutcliffe, delay index, relative error). We also compare the spatial and temporal variations of flooded areas from the model with the Global Inundation Extent from Multi-Satellites (GIEMS) and the Alaska Satellite Facility (ASF)'s MEaSUREs Wetland data. Finally, we estimate surface water storage variations using a hypsographic curve approach with Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) topographic data and evaluate the model-derived water storage changes in both river and floodplain. This study demonstrates the feasibility of using LIS-HYMAP coupled modeling to support seasonal forecast methods for prediction of decision-relevant metrics of hydrologic extremes.

Nonlinear Prediction Model for Hydrologic Time Series Based on Wavelet Decomposition

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Kwon, H.; Khalil, A.; Brown, C.; Lall, U.; Ahn, H.; Moon, Y.

2005-12-01

Traditionally forecasting and characterizations of hydrologic systems is performed utilizing many techniques. Stochastic linear methods such as AR and ARIMA and nonlinear ones such as statistical learning theory based tools have been extensively used. The common difficulty to all methods is the determination of sufficient and necessary information and predictors for a successful prediction. Relationships between hydrologic variables are often highly nonlinear and interrelated across the temporal scale. A new hybrid approach is proposed for the simulation of hydrologic time series combining both the wavelet transform and the nonlinear model. The present model employs some merits of wavelet transform and nonlinear time series model. The Wavelet Transform is adopted to decompose a hydrologic nonlinear process into a set of mono-component signals, which are simulated by nonlinear model. The hybrid methodology is formulated in a manner to improve the accuracy of a long term forecasting. The proposed hybrid model yields much better results in terms of capturing and reproducing the time-frequency properties of the system at hand. Prediction results are promising when compared to traditional univariate time series models. An application of the plausibility of the proposed methodology is provided and the results conclude that wavelet based time series model can be utilized for simulating and forecasting of hydrologic variable reasonably well. This will ultimately serve the purpose of integrated water resources planning and management.

A conceptual socio-hydrological model of the co-evolution of humans and water: case study of the Tarim River basin, western China

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Liu, D.; Tian, F.; Lin, M.; Sivapalan, M.

2015-02-01

The complex interactions and feedbacks between humans and water are critically important issues but remain poorly understood in the newly proposed discipline of socio-hydrology (Sivapalan et al., 2012). An exploratory model with the appropriate level of simplification can be valuable for improving our understanding of the co-evolution and self-organization of socio-hydrological systems driven by interactions and feedbacks operating at different scales. In this study, a simplified conceptual socio-hydrological model based on logistic growth curves is developed for the Tarim River basin in western China and is used to illustrate the explanatory power of such a co-evolutionary model. The study area is the main stream of the Tarim River, which is divided into two modeling units. The socio-hydrological system is composed of four sub-systems, i.e., the hydrological, ecological, economic, and social sub-systems. In each modeling unit, the hydrological equation focusing on water balance is coupled to the other three evolutionary equations to represent the dynamics of the social sub-system (denoted by population), the economic sub-system (denoted by irrigated crop area ratio), and the ecological sub-system (denoted by natural vegetation cover), each of which is expressed in terms of a logistic growth curve. Four feedback loops are identified to represent the complex interactions among different sub-systems and different spatial units, of which two are inner loops occurring within each separate unit and the other two are outer loops linking the two modeling units. The feedback mechanisms are incorporated into the constitutive relations for model parameters, i.e., the colonization and mortality rates in the logistic growth curves that are jointly determined by the state variables of all sub-systems. The co-evolution of the Tarim socio-hydrological system is then analyzed with this conceptual model to gain insights into the overall system dynamics and its sensitivity to the

Uncertainty analysis of hydrological modeling in a tropical area using different algorithms

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Rafiei Emam, Ammar; Kappas, Martin; Fassnacht, Steven; Linh, Nguyen Hoang Khanh

2018-01-01

Hydrological modeling outputs are subject to uncertainty resulting from different sources of errors (e.g., error in input data, model structure, and model parameters), making quantification of uncertainty in hydrological modeling imperative and meant to improve reliability of modeling results. The uncertainty analysis must solve difficulties in calibration of hydrological models, which further increase in areas with data scarcity. The purpose of this study is to apply four uncertainty analysis algorithms to a semi-distributed hydrological model, quantifying different source of uncertainties (especially parameter uncertainty) and evaluate their performance. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tools (SWAT) eco-hydrological model was implemented for the watershed in the center of Vietnam. The sensitivity of parameters was analyzed, and the model was calibrated. The uncertainty analysis for the hydrological model was conducted based on four algorithms: Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE), Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI), Parameter Solution method (ParaSol) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). The performance of the algorithms was compared using P-factor and Rfactor, coefficient of determination (R 2), the Nash Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NSE) and Percent Bias (PBIAS). The results showed the high performance of SUFI and PSO with P-factor>0.83, R-factor 0.91, NSE>0.89, and 0.18model use for policy or management decisions.

Technical note: Representing glacier geometry changes in a semi-distributed hydrological model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Seibert

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Glaciers play an important role in high-mountain hydrology. While changing glacier areas are considered of highest importance for the understanding of future changes in runoff, glaciers are often only poorly represented in hydrological models. Most importantly, the direct coupling between the simulated glacier mass balances and changing glacier areas needs feasible solutions. The use of a complex glacier model is often not possible due to data and computational limitations. The Δh parameterization is a simple approach to consider the spatial variation of glacier thickness and area changes. Here, we describe a conceptual implementation of the Δh parameterization in the semi-distributed hydrological model HBV-light, which also allows for the representation of glacier advance phases and for comparison between the different versions of the implementation. The coupled glacio-hydrological simulation approach, which could also be implemented in many other semi-distributed hydrological models, is illustrated based on an example application.

Identification of hydrological model parameters for flood forecasting using data depth measures

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Krauße, T.; Cullmann, J.

2011-03-01

The development of methods for estimating the parameters of hydrological models considering uncertainties has been of high interest in hydrological research over the last years. Besides the very popular Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods which estimate the uncertainty of model parameters in the settings of a Bayesian framework, the development of depth based sampling methods, also entitled robust parameter estimation (ROPE), have attracted an increasing research interest. These methods understand the estimation of model parameters as a geometric search of a set of robust performing parameter vectors by application of the concept of data depth. Recent studies showed that the parameter vectors estimated by depth based sampling perform more robust in validation. One major advantage of this kind of approach over the MCMC methods is that the formulation of a likelihood function within a Bayesian uncertainty framework gets obsolete and arbitrary purpose-oriented performance criteria defined by the user can be integrated without any further complications. In this paper we present an advanced ROPE method entitled the Advanced Robust Parameter Estimation by Monte Carlo algorithm (AROPEMC). The AROPEMC algorithm is a modified version of the original robust parameter estimation algorithm ROPEMC developed by Bárdossy and Singh (2008). AROPEMC performs by merging iterative Monte Carlo simulations, identifying well performing parameter vectors, the sampling of robust parameter vectors according to the principle of data depth and the application of a well-founded stopping criterion applied in supervised machine learning. The principals of the algorithm are illustrated by means of the Rosenbrock's and Rastrigin's function, two well known performance benchmarks for optimisation algorithms. Two case studies demonstrate the advantage of AROPEMC compared to state of the art global optimisation algorithms. A distributed process-oriented hydrological model is calibrated and

Upscaling from research watersheds: an essential stage of trustworthy general-purpose hydrologic model building

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McNamara, J. P.; Semenova, O.; Restrepo, P. J.

2011-12-01

Highly instrumented research watersheds provide excellent opportunities for investigating hydrologic processes. A danger, however, is that the processes observed at a particular research watershed are too specific to the watershed and not representative even of the larger scale watershed that contains that particular research watershed. Thus, models developed based on those partial observations may not be suitable for general hydrologic use. Therefore demonstrating the upscaling of hydrologic process from research watersheds to larger watersheds is essential to validate concepts and test model structure. The Hydrograph model has been developed as a general-purpose process-based hydrologic distributed system. In its applications and further development we evaluate the scaling of model concepts and parameters in a wide range of hydrologic landscapes. All models, either lumped or distributed, are based on a discretization concept. It is common practice that watersheds are discretized into so called hydrologic units or hydrologic landscapes possessing assumed homogeneous hydrologic functioning. If a model structure is fixed, the difference in hydrologic functioning (difference in hydrologic landscapes) should be reflected by a specific set of model parameters. Research watersheds provide the possibility for reasonable detailed combining of processes into some typical hydrologic concept such as hydrologic units, hydrologic forms, and runoff formation complexes in the Hydrograph model. And here by upscaling we imply not the upscaling of a single process but upscaling of such unified hydrologic functioning. The simulation of runoff processes for the Dry Creek research watershed, Idaho, USA (27 km2) was undertaken using the Hydrograph model. The information on the watershed was provided by Boise State University and included a GIS database of watershed characteristics and a detailed hydrometeorological observational dataset. The model provided good simulation results in

Impacts of correcting the inter-variable correlation of climate model outputs on hydrological modeling

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Chen, Jie; Li, Chao; Brissette, François P.; Chen, Hua; Wang, Mingna; Essou, Gilles R. C.

2018-05-01

Bias correction is usually implemented prior to using climate model outputs for impact studies. However, bias correction methods that are commonly used treat climate variables independently and often ignore inter-variable dependencies. The effects of ignoring such dependencies on impact studies need to be investigated. This study aims to assess the impacts of correcting the inter-variable correlation of climate model outputs on hydrological modeling. To this end, a joint bias correction (JBC) method which corrects the joint distribution of two variables as a whole is compared with an independent bias correction (IBC) method; this is considered in terms of correcting simulations of precipitation and temperature from 26 climate models for hydrological modeling over 12 watersheds located in various climate regimes. The results show that the simulated precipitation and temperature are considerably biased not only in the individual distributions, but also in their correlations, which in turn result in biased hydrological simulations. In addition to reducing the biases of the individual characteristics of precipitation and temperature, the JBC method can also reduce the bias in precipitation-temperature (P-T) correlations. In terms of hydrological modeling, the JBC method performs significantly better than the IBC method for 11 out of the 12 watersheds over the calibration period. For the validation period, the advantages of the JBC method are greatly reduced as the performance becomes dependent on the watershed, GCM and hydrological metric considered. For arid/tropical and snowfall-rainfall-mixed watersheds, JBC performs better than IBC. For snowfall- or rainfall-dominated watersheds, however, the two methods behave similarly, with IBC performing somewhat better than JBC. Overall, the results emphasize the advantages of correcting the P-T correlation when using climate model-simulated precipitation and temperature to assess the impact of climate change on watershed

Temporal Trends and Hydrological Controls of Fisheries Production in the Madeira River (Brazil)

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Kaplan, D. A.; Lima, M. A.; Doria, C.

2016-12-01

Amazonian river systems are characterized by a strongly seasonal flood pulse and important hydrologic effects have been observed in the dynamics of fish stocks and fishing yields. Changes in the Amazon's freshwater ecosystems from hydropower development will have a cascade of physical, ecological, and social effects and impacts on fish and fisheries are expected to be potentially irreversible. In this work we investigate shared trends and causal factors driving fish catch in the Madeira River (a major tributary of the Amazon) before dam construction to derive relationships between catch and natural hydrologic dynamics. We applied Dynamic Factor Analysis to investigate dynamics in fish catch across ten commercially important fish species in the Madeira River using daily fish landings data including species and total weight and daily hydrological data obtained from the Brazilian Geological Service. Total annual catch averaged over the 18-yr period (1990-2007) was 849 tons yr-1. Species with the highest catch included curimatã, dourada/filhote and pacu, highlighting the importance of medium and long-distance migratory species for fisheries production. We found a four-trend dynamic factor model (DFM) to best fit the observed data, assessed using the Akaike Information Criteria. Model goodness of fit was fair (R2=0.51) but highly variable across species (0.16 ≤ R2 ≤ 0.95). Fitted trends exhibited strong and regular year-to-year variation representative of the seasonal hydrologic pulsing observed on the Madeira River. Next, we considered 11 candidate explanatory time series and found the best DFM used four explanatory variables and only one common trend. While the model fit with explanatory variables was lower (R2=0.31) it removed much reliance on unknown common trends. The most important explanatory variable in this model was maximum water level followed by days flooded, river flow of the previous year and increment. We found unique responses to hydrological

Comparison of global optimization approaches for robust calibration of hydrologic model parameters

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Jung, I. W.

2015-12-01

Robustness of the calibrated parameters of hydrologic models is necessary to provide a reliable prediction of future performance of watershed behavior under varying climate conditions. This study investigated calibration performances according to the length of calibration period, objective functions, hydrologic model structures and optimization methods. To do this, the combination of three global optimization methods (i.e. SCE-UA, Micro-GA, and DREAM) and four hydrologic models (i.e. SAC-SMA, GR4J, HBV, and PRMS) was tested with different calibration periods and objective functions. Our results showed that three global optimization methods provided close calibration performances under different calibration periods, objective functions, and hydrologic models. However, using the agreement of index, normalized root mean square error, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency as the objective function showed better performance than using correlation coefficient and percent bias. Calibration performances according to different calibration periods from one year to seven years were hard to generalize because four hydrologic models have different levels of complexity and different years have different information content of hydrological observation. Acknowledgements This research was supported by a grant (14AWMP-B082564-01) from Advanced Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

Increased drought impacts on temperate rainforests from southern South America: results of a process-based, dynamic forest model.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alvaro G Gutiérrez

Full Text Available Increased droughts due to regional shifts in temperature and rainfall regimes are likely to affect forests in temperate regions in the coming decades. To assess their consequences for forest dynamics, we need predictive tools that couple hydrologic processes, soil moisture dynamics and plant productivity. Here, we developed and tested a dynamic forest model that predicts the hydrologic balance of North Patagonian rainforests on Chiloé Island, in temperate South America (42°S. The model incorporates the dynamic linkages between changing rainfall regimes, soil moisture and individual tree growth. Declining rainfall, as predicted for the study area, should mean up to 50% less summer rain by year 2100. We analysed forest responses to increased drought using the model proposed focusing on changes in evapotranspiration, soil moisture and forest structure (above-ground biomass and basal area. We compared the responses of a young stand (YS, ca. 60 years-old and an old-growth forest (OG, >500 years-old in the same area. Based on detailed field measurements of water fluxes, the model provides a reliable account of the hydrologic balance of these evergreen, broad-leaved rainforests. We found higher evapotranspiration in OG than YS under current climate. Increasing drought predicted for this century can reduce evapotranspiration by 15% in the OG compared to current values. Drier climate will alter forest structure, leading to decreases in above ground biomass by 27% of the current value in OG. The model presented here can be used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on forest hydrology and other threats of global change on future forests such as fragmentation, introduction of exotic tree species, and changes in fire regimes. Our study expands the applicability of forest dynamics models in remote and hitherto overlooked regions of the world, such as southern temperate rainforests.

Increased drought impacts on temperate rainforests from southern South America: results of a process-based, dynamic forest model.

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Gutiérrez, Alvaro G; Armesto, Juan J; Díaz, M Francisca; Huth, Andreas

2014-01-01

Increased droughts due to regional shifts in temperature and rainfall regimes are likely to affect forests in temperate regions in the coming decades. To assess their consequences for forest dynamics, we need predictive tools that couple hydrologic processes, soil moisture dynamics and plant productivity. Here, we developed and tested a dynamic forest model that predicts the hydrologic balance of North Patagonian rainforests on Chiloé Island, in temperate South America (42°S). The model incorporates the dynamic linkages between changing rainfall regimes, soil moisture and individual tree growth. Declining rainfall, as predicted for the study area, should mean up to 50% less summer rain by year 2100. We analysed forest responses to increased drought using the model proposed focusing on changes in evapotranspiration, soil moisture and forest structure (above-ground biomass and basal area). We compared the responses of a young stand (YS, ca. 60 years-old) and an old-growth forest (OG, >500 years-old) in the same area. Based on detailed field measurements of water fluxes, the model provides a reliable account of the hydrologic balance of these evergreen, broad-leaved rainforests. We found higher evapotranspiration in OG than YS under current climate. Increasing drought predicted for this century can reduce evapotranspiration by 15% in the OG compared to current values. Drier climate will alter forest structure, leading to decreases in above ground biomass by 27% of the current value in OG. The model presented here can be used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on forest hydrology and other threats of global change on future forests such as fragmentation, introduction of exotic tree species, and changes in fire regimes. Our study expands the applicability of forest dynamics models in remote and hitherto overlooked regions of the world, such as southern temperate rainforests.

Calibration process of highly parameterized semi-distributed hydrological model

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Vidmar, Andrej; Brilly, Mitja

2017-04-01

Hydrological phenomena take place in the hydrological system, which is governed by nature, and are essentially stochastic. These phenomena are unique, non-recurring, and changeable across space and time. Since any river basin with its own natural characteristics and any hydrological event therein, are unique, this is a complex process that is not researched enough. Calibration is a procedure of determining the parameters of a model that are not known well enough. Input and output variables and mathematical model expressions are known, while only some parameters are unknown, which are determined by calibrating the model. The software used for hydrological modelling nowadays is equipped with sophisticated algorithms for calibration purposes without possibility to manage process by modeler. The results are not the best. We develop procedure for expert driven process of calibration. We use HBV-light-CLI hydrological model which has command line interface and coupling it with PEST. PEST is parameter estimation tool which is used widely in ground water modeling and can be used also on surface waters. Process of calibration managed by expert directly, and proportionally to the expert knowledge, affects the outcome of the inversion procedure and achieves better results than if the procedure had been left to the selected optimization algorithm. First step is to properly define spatial characteristic and structural design of semi-distributed model including all morphological and hydrological phenomena, like karstic area, alluvial area and forest area. This step includes and requires geological, meteorological, hydraulic and hydrological knowledge of modeler. Second step is to set initial parameter values at their preferred values based on expert knowledge. In this step we also define all parameter and observation groups. Peak data are essential in process of calibration if we are mainly interested in flood events. Each Sub Catchment in the model has own observations group

Determining hydrological changes in a small Arctic treeline basin using cold regions hydrological modelling and a pseudo-global warming approach

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Krogh, S. A.; Pomeroy, J. W.

2017-12-01

Increasing temperatures are producing higher rainfall ratios, shorter snow-covered periods, permafrost thaw, more shrub coverage, more northerly treelines and greater interaction between groundwater and surface flow in Arctic basins. How these changes will impact the hydrology of the Arctic treeline environment represents a great challenge. To diagnose the future hydrology along the current Arctic treeline, a physically based cold regions model was used to simulate the hydrology of a small basin near Inuvik, Northwest Territories, Canada. The hydrological model includes hydrological processes such as snow redistribution and sublimation by wind, canopy interception of snow/rain and sublimation/evaporation, snowmelt energy balance, active layer freeze/thaw, infiltration into frozen and unfrozen soils, evapotranspiration, horizontal flow through organic terrain and snowpack, subsurface flow and streamflow routing. The model was driven with weather simulated by a high-resolution (4 km) numerical weather prediction model under two scenarios: (1) control run, using ERA-Interim boundary conditions (2001-2013) and (2) future, using a Pseudo-Global Warming (PGW) approach based on the RCP8.5 projections perturbing the control run. Transient changes in vegetation based on recent observations and ecological expectations were then used to re-parameterise the model. Historical hydrological simulations were validated against daily streamflow, snow water equivalent and active layer thickness records, showing the model's suitability in this environment. Strong annual warming ( 6 °C) and more precipitation ( 20%) were simulated by the PGW scenario, with winter precipitation and fall temperature showing the largest seasonal increase. The joint impact of climate and transient vegetation changes on snow accumulation and redistribution, evapotranspiration, active layer development, runoff generation and hydrograph characteristics are analyzed and discussed.

Constraining Distributed Catchment Models by Incorporating Perceptual Understanding of Spatial Hydrologic Behaviour

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Hutton, Christopher; Wagener, Thorsten; Freer, Jim; Han, Dawei

2016-04-01

Distributed models offer the potential to resolve catchment systems in more detail, and therefore simulate the hydrological impacts of spatial changes in catchment forcing (e.g. landscape change). Such models tend to contain a large number of poorly defined and spatially varying model parameters which are therefore computationally expensive to calibrate. Insufficient data can result in model parameter and structural equifinality, particularly when calibration is reliant on catchment outlet discharge behaviour alone. Evaluating spatial patterns of internal hydrological behaviour has the potential to reveal simulations that, whilst consistent with measured outlet discharge, are qualitatively dissimilar to our perceptual understanding of how the system should behave. We argue that such understanding, which may be derived from stakeholder knowledge across different catchments for certain process dynamics, is a valuable source of information to help reject non-behavioural models, and therefore identify feasible model structures and parameters. The challenge, however, is to convert different sources of often qualitative and/or semi-qualitative information into robust quantitative constraints of model states and fluxes, and combine these sources of information together to reject models within an efficient calibration framework. Here we present the development of a framework to incorporate different sources of data to efficiently calibrate distributed catchment models. For each source of information, an interval or inequality is used to define the behaviour of the catchment system. These intervals are then combined to produce a hyper-volume in state space, which is used to identify behavioural models. We apply the methodology to calibrate the Penn State Integrated Hydrological Model (PIHM) at the Wye catchment, Plynlimon, UK. Outlet discharge behaviour is successfully simulated when perceptual understanding of relative groundwater levels between lowland peat, upland peat

Understanding controls of hydrologic processes across two headwater monolithological catchments using model-data synthesis

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Xiao, D.; Shi, Y.; Hoagland, B.; Del Vecchio, J.; Russo, T. A.; DiBiase, R. A.; Li, L.

2017-12-01

How do watershed hydrologic processes differ in catchments derived from different lithology? This study compares two first order, deciduous forest watersheds in Pennsylvania, a sandstone watershed, Garner Run (GR, 1.34 km2), and a shale-derived watershed, Shale Hills (SH, 0.08 km2). Both watersheds are simulated using a combination of national datasets and field measurements, and a physics-based land surface hydrologic model, Flux-PIHM. We aim to evaluate the effects of lithology on watershed hydrology and assess if we can simulate a new watershed without intensive measurements, i.e., directly use calibration information from one watershed (SH) to reproduce hydrologic dynamics of another watershed (GR). Without any calibration, the model at GR based on national datasets and calibration inforamtion from SH cannot capture some discharge peaks or the baseflow during dry periods. The model prediction agrees well with the GR field discharge and soil moisture after calibrating the soil hydraulic parameters using the uncertainty based Hornberger-Spear-Young algorithm and the Latin Hypercube Sampling method. Agreeing with the field observation and national datasets, the difference in parameter values shows that the sandstone watershed has a larger averaged soil pore diameter, greater water storage created by porosity, lower water retention ability, and greater preferential flow. The water budget calculation shows that the riparian zone and the colluvial valley serves as buffer zones that stores water at GR. Using the same procedure, we compared Flux-PIHM simulations with and without a field measured surface boulder map at GR. When the boulder map is used, the prediction of areal averaged soil moisture is improved, without performing extra calibration. When calibrated separately, the cases with or without boulder map yield different calibration values, but their hydrologic predictions are similar, showing equifinality. The calibrated soil hydraulic parameter values in the

Modeling water quality in an urban river using hydrological factors--data driven approaches.

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Fi-John; Tsai, Yu-Hsuan; Chen, Pin-An; Coynel, Alexandra; Vachaud, Georges

2015-03-15

Contrasting seasonal variations occur in river flow and water quality as a result of short duration, severe intensity storms and typhoons in Taiwan. Sudden changes in river flow caused by impending extreme events may impose serious degradation on river water quality and fateful impacts on ecosystems. Water quality is measured in a monthly/quarterly scale, and therefore an estimation of water quality in a daily scale would be of good help for timely river pollution management. This study proposes a systematic analysis scheme (SAS) to assess the spatio-temporal interrelation of water quality in an urban river and construct water quality estimation models using two static and one dynamic artificial neural networks (ANNs) coupled with the Gamma test (GT) based on water quality, hydrological and economic data. The Dahan River basin in Taiwan is the study area. Ammonia nitrogen (NH3-N) is considered as the representative parameter, a correlative indicator in judging the contamination level over the study. Key factors the most closely related to the representative parameter (NH3-N) are extracted by the Gamma test for modeling NH3-N concentration, and as a result, four hydrological factors (discharge, days w/o discharge, water temperature and rainfall) are identified as model inputs. The modeling results demonstrate that the nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous input (NARX) network furnished with recurrent connections can accurately estimate NH3-N concentration with a very high coefficient of efficiency value (0.926) and a low RMSE value (0.386 mg/l). Besides, the NARX network can suitably catch peak values that mainly occur in dry periods (September-April in the study area), which is particularly important to water pollution treatment. The proposed SAS suggests a promising approach to reliably modeling the spatio-temporal NH3-N concentration based solely on hydrological data, without using water quality sampling data. It is worth noticing that such estimation can be

Is there a need for hydrological modelling in decision support systems for nuclear emergencies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raskob, W.; Heling, R.; Zheleznyak, M.

2004-01-01

This paper discusses the role of hydrological modelling in decision support systems for nuclear emergencies. In particular, most recent developments such as, the radionuclide transport models integrated in to the decision support system RODOS will be explored. Recent progress in the implementation of physically-based distributed hydrological models for operational forecasting in national and supranational centres, may support a closer cooperation between national hydrological services and therefore, strengthen the use of hydrological and radiological models implemented in decision support systems. (authors)

Coupling meteorological and hydrological models for flood forecasting

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Bartholmes

2005-01-01

Full Text Available This paper deals with the problem of analysing the coupling of meteorological meso-scale quantitative precipitation forecasts with distributed rainfall-runoff models to extend the forecasting horizon. Traditionally, semi-distributed rainfall-runoff models have been used for real time flood forecasting. More recently, increased computer capabilities allow the utilisation of distributed hydrological models with mesh sizes from tenths of metres to a few kilometres. On the other hand, meteorological models, providing the quantitative precipitation forecast, tend to produce average values on meshes ranging from slightly less than 10 to 200 kilometres. Therefore, to improve the quality of flood forecasts, the effects of coupling the meteorological and the hydrological models at different scales were analysed. A distributed hydrological model (TOPKAPI was developed and calibrated using a 1x1 km mesh for the case of the river Po closed at Ponte Spessa (catchment area c. 37000 km2. The model was then coupled with several other European meteorological models ranging from the Limited Area Models (provided by DMI and DWD with resolutions from 0.0625° * 0.0625°, to the ECMWF ensemble predictions with a resolution of 1.85° * 1.85°. Interesting results, describing the coupled model behaviour, are available for a meteorological extreme event in Northern Italy (Nov. 1994. The results demonstrate the poor reliability of the quantitative precipitation forecasts produced by meteorological models presently available; this is not resolved using the Ensemble Forecasting technique, when compared with results obtainable with measured rainfall.

Mathematical modelling of fracture hydrology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rae, J.; Hodgkinson, D.P.; Robinson, P.C.; Herbert, A.W.

1984-04-01

This progress report contains notes on three aspects of hydrological modelling. Work on hydrodynamic dispersion in fractured media has been extended to transverse dispersion. Further work has been done on diffusion into the rock matrix and its effect on solute transport. The program NAMSOL has been used for the MIRAGE code comparison exercise being organised by Atkins R and D. (author)

Hillslope hydrological modeling : the role of bedrock geometry and hillslope-stream interaction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Shahedi, K.

2008-01-01

Keywords: Hillslope hydrology, hydrological modeling, bedrock geometry, boundary condition, numerical solution.

This thesis focuses on hillslope subsurface flow as a dominant control on the hydrological processes defining the catchment response to rainfall. Due to the difficulties

[Socio-hydrology: A review].

Science.gov (United States)

Ding, Jing-yi; Zhao, Wen-wu; Fang, Xue-ning

2015-04-01

Socio-hydrology is an interdiscipline of hydrology, nature, society and humanity. It mainly explores the two-way feedbacks of coupled human-water system and its dynamic mechanism of co-evolution, and makes efforts to solve the issues that human faces today such as sustainable utilization of water resources. Starting from the background, formation process, and fundamental concept of socio-hydrology, this paper summarized the features of socio-hydrology. The main research content of socio-hydrology was reduced to three aspects: The tradeoff in coupled human-water system, interests in water resources management and virtual water research in coupled human-water system. And its differences as well as relations with traditional hydrology, eco-hydrology and hydro-sociology were dwelled on. Finally, with hope to promote the development of socio-hydrology researches in China, the paper made prospects for the development of the subject from following aspects: Completing academic content and deepening quantitative research, focusing on scale studies of socio-hydrology, fusing socio-hydrology and eco-hydrology.

Investigation of the transferability of hydrological models and a method to improve model calibration

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G. Hartmann

2005-01-01

Full Text Available In order to find a model parameterization such that the hydrological model performs well even under different conditions, appropriate model performance measures have to be determined. A common performance measure is the Nash Sutcliffe efficiency. Usually it is calculated comparing observed and modelled daily values. In this paper a modified version is suggested in order to calibrate a model on different time scales simultaneously (days up to years. A spatially distributed hydrological model based on HBV concept was used. The modelling was applied on the Upper Neckar catchment, a mesoscale river in south western Germany with a basin size of about 4000 km2. The observation period 1961-1990 was divided into four different climatic periods, referred to as "warm", "cold", "wet" and "dry". These sub periods were used to assess the transferability of the model calibration and of the measure of performance. In a first step, the hydrological model was calibrated on a certain period and afterwards applied on the same period. Then, a validation was performed on the climatologically opposite period than the calibration, e.g. the model calibrated on the cold period was applied on the warm period. Optimal parameter sets were identified by an automatic calibration procedure based on Simulated Annealing. The results show, that calibrating a hydrological model that is supposed to handle short as well as long term signals becomes an important task. Especially the objective function has to be chosen very carefully.

Simulations of ecosystem hydrological processes using a unified multi-scale model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yang, Xiaofan; Liu, Chongxuan; Fang, Yilin; Hinkle, Ross; Li, Hong-Yi; Bailey, Vanessa; Bond-Lamberty, Ben

2015-01-01

This paper presents a unified multi-scale model (UMSM) that we developed to simulate hydrological processes in an ecosystem containing both surface water and groundwater. The UMSM approach modifies the Navier–Stokes equation by adding a Darcy force term to formulate a single set of equations to describe fluid momentum and uses a generalized equation to describe fluid mass balance. The advantage of the approach is that the single set of the equations can describe hydrological processes in both surface water and groundwater where different models are traditionally required to simulate fluid flow. This feature of the UMSM significantly facilitates modelling of hydrological processes in ecosystems, especially at locations where soil/sediment may be frequently inundated and drained in response to precipitation, regional hydrological and climate changes. In this paper, the UMSM was benchmarked using WASH123D, a model commonly used for simulating coupled surface water and groundwater flow. Disney Wilderness Preserve (DWP) site at the Kissimmee, Florida, where active field monitoring and measurements are ongoing to understand hydrological and biogeochemical processes, was then used as an example to illustrate the UMSM modelling approach. The simulations results demonstrated that the DWP site is subject to the frequent changes in soil saturation, the geometry and volume of surface water bodies, and groundwater and surface water exchange. All the hydrological phenomena in surface water and groundwater components including inundation and draining, river bank flow, groundwater table change, soil saturation, hydrological interactions between groundwater and surface water, and the migration of surface water and groundwater interfaces can be simultaneously simulated using the UMSM. Overall, the UMSM offers a cross-scale approach that is particularly suitable to simulate coupled surface and ground water flow in ecosystems with strong surface water and groundwater interactions.

Multi-scale validation of a new soil freezing scheme for a land-surface model with physically-based hydrology

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I. Gouttevin

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Soil freezing is a major feature of boreal regions with substantial impact on climate. The present paper describes the implementation of the thermal and hydrological effects of soil freezing in the land surface model ORCHIDEE, which includes a physical description of continental hydrology. The new soil freezing scheme is evaluated against analytical solutions and in-situ observations at a variety of scales in order to test its numerical robustness, explore its sensitivity to parameterization choices and confront its performance to field measurements at typical application scales.

Our soil freezing model exhibits a low sensitivity to the vertical discretization for spatial steps in the range of a few millimetres to a few centimetres. It is however sensitive to the temperature interval around the freezing point where phase change occurs, which should be 1 °C to 2 °C wide. Furthermore, linear and thermodynamical parameterizations of the liquid water content lead to similar results in terms of water redistribution within the soil and thermal evolution under freezing. Our approach does not allow firm discrimination of the performance of one approach over the other.

The new soil freezing scheme considerably improves the representation of runoff and river discharge in regions underlain by permafrost or subject to seasonal freezing. A thermodynamical parameterization of the liquid water content appears more appropriate for an integrated description of the hydrological processes at the scale of the vast Siberian basins. The use of a subgrid variability approach and the representation of wetlands could help capture the features of the Arctic hydrological regime with more accuracy.

The modeling of the soil thermal regime is generally improved by the representation of soil freezing processes. In particular, the dynamics of the active layer is captured with more accuracy, which is of crucial importance in the prospect of

Advancements in Hydrology and Erosion Process Understanding and Post-Fire Hydrologic and Erosion Model Development for Semi-Arid Landscapes

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, C. Jason; Pierson, Frederick B.; Al-Hamdan, Osama Z.; Robichaud, Peter R.; Nearing, Mark A.; Hernandez, Mariano; Weltz, Mark A.; Spaeth, Kenneth E.; Goodrich, David C.

2017-04-01

Fire activity continues to increase in semi-arid regions around the globe. Private and governmental land management entities are challenged with predicting and mitigating post-fire hydrologic and erosion responses on these landscapes. For more than a decade, a team of scientists with the US Department of Agriculture has collaborated on extensive post-fire hydrologic field research and the application of field research to development of post-fire hydrology and erosion predictive technologies. Experiments funded through this research investigated the impacts of fire on vegetation and soils and the effects of these fire-induced changes on infiltration, runoff generation, erodibility, and soil erosion processes. The distribution of study sites spans diverse topography across grassland, shrubland, and woodland landscapes throughout the western United States. Knowledge gleaned from the extensive field experiments was applied to develop and enhance physically-based models for hillslope- to watershed-scale runoff and erosion prediction. Our field research and subsequent data syntheses have identified key knowledge gaps and challenges regarding post-fire hydrology and erosion modeling. Our presentation details some consistent trends across a diverse domain and varying landscape conditions based on our extensive field campaigns. We demonstrate how field data have advanced our understanding of post-fire hydrology and erosion for semi-arid landscapes and highlight remaining key knowledge gaps. Lastly, we briefly show how our well-replicated experimental methodologies have contributed to advancements in hydrologic and erosion model development for the post-fire environment.

Distributed Hydrologic Modeling Apps for Decision Support in the Cloud

Science.gov (United States)

Swain, N. R.; Latu, K.; Christiensen, S.; Jones, N.; Nelson, J.

2013-12-01

Advances in computation resources and greater availability of water resources data represent an untapped resource for addressing hydrologic uncertainties in water resources decision-making. The current practice of water authorities relies on empirical, lumped hydrologic models to estimate watershed response. These models are not capable of taking advantage of many of the spatial datasets that are now available. Physically-based, distributed hydrologic models are capable of using these data resources and providing better predictions through stochastic analysis. However, there exists a digital divide that discourages many science-minded decision makers from using distributed models. This divide can be spanned using a combination of existing web technologies. The purpose of this presentation is to present a cloud-based environment that will offer hydrologic modeling tools or 'apps' for decision support and the web technologies that have been selected to aid in its implementation. Compared to the more commonly used lumped-parameter models, distributed models, while being more intuitive, are still data intensive, computationally expensive, and difficult to modify for scenario exploration. However, web technologies such as web GIS, web services, and cloud computing have made the data more accessible, provided an inexpensive means of high-performance computing, and created an environment for developing user-friendly apps for distributed modeling. Since many water authorities are primarily interested in the scenario exploration exercises with hydrologic models, we are creating a toolkit that facilitates the development of a series of apps for manipulating existing distributed models. There are a number of hurdles that cloud-based hydrologic modeling developers face. One of these is how to work with the geospatial data inherent with this class of models in a web environment. Supporting geospatial data in a website is beyond the capabilities of standard web frameworks and it

Diagnosis of the hydrology of a small Arctic basin at the tundra-taiga transition using a physically based hydrological model

Science.gov (United States)

Krogh, Sebastian A.; Pomeroy, John W.; Marsh, Philip

2017-07-01

A better understanding of cold regions hydrological processes and regimes in transitional environments is critical for predicting future Arctic freshwater fluxes under climate and vegetation change. A physically based hydrological model using the Cold Regions Hydrological Model platform was created for a small Arctic basin in the tundra-taiga transition region. The model represents snow redistribution and sublimation by wind and vegetation, snowmelt energy budget, evapotranspiration, subsurface flow through organic terrain, infiltration to frozen soils, freezing and thawing of soils, permafrost and streamflow routing. The model was used to reconstruct the basin water cycle over 28 years to understand and quantify the mass fluxes controlling its hydrological regime. Model structure and parameters were set from the current understanding of Arctic hydrology, remote sensing, field research in the basin and region, and calibration against streamflow observations. Calibration was restricted to subsurface hydraulic and storage parameters. Multi-objective evaluation of the model using observed streamflow, snow accumulation and ground freeze/thaw state showed adequate simulation. Significant spatial variability in the winter mass fluxes was found between tundra, shrubs and forested sites, particularly due to the substantial blowing snow redistribution and sublimation from the wind-swept upper basin, as well as sublimation of canopy intercepted snow from the forest (about 17% of snowfall). At the basin scale, the model showed that evapotranspiration is the largest loss of water (47%), followed by streamflow (39%) and sublimation (14%). The models streamflow performance sensitivity to a set of parameter was analysed, as well as the mean annual mass balance uncertainty associated with these parameters.

Significant uncertainty in global scale hydrological modeling from precipitation data erros

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sperna Weiland, F.; Vrugt, J.A.; Beek, van P.H.; Weerts, A.H.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

2015-01-01

In the past decades significant progress has been made in the fitting of hydrologic models to data. Most of this work has focused on simple, CPU-efficient, lumped hydrologic models using discharge, water table depth, soil moisture, or tracer data from relatively small river basins. In this paper, we

Significant uncertainty in global scale hydrological modeling from precipitation data errors

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Weiland, Frederiek C. Sperna; Vrugt, Jasper A.; van Beek, Rens (L. ) P. H.; Weerts, Albrecht H.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

2015-01-01

In the past decades significant progress has been made in the fitting of hydrologic models to data. Most of this work has focused on simple, CPU-efficient, lumped hydrologic models using discharge, water table depth, soil moisture, or tracer data from relatively small river basins. In this paper, we

Calibration by Hydrological Response Unit of a National Hydrologic Model to Improve Spatial Representation and Distribution of Parameters

Science.gov (United States)

Norton, P. A., II

2015-12-01

The U. S. Geological Survey is developing a National Hydrologic Model (NHM) to support consistent hydrologic modeling across the conterminous United States (CONUS). The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) simulates daily hydrologic and energy processes in watersheds, and is used for the NHM application. For PRMS each watershed is divided into hydrologic response units (HRUs); by default each HRU is assumed to have a uniform hydrologic response. The Geospatial Fabric (GF) is a database containing initial parameter values for input to PRMS and was created for the NHM. The parameter values in the GF were derived from datasets that characterize the physical features of the entire CONUS. The NHM application is composed of more than 100,000 HRUs from the GF. Selected parameter values commonly are adjusted by basin in PRMS using an automated calibration process based on calibration targets, such as streamflow. Providing each HRU with distinct values that captures variability within the CONUS may improve simulation performance of the NHM. During calibration of the NHM by HRU, selected parameter values are adjusted for PRMS based on calibration targets, such as streamflow, snow water equivalent (SWE) and actual evapotranspiration (AET). Simulated SWE, AET, and runoff were compared to value ranges derived from multiple sources (e.g. the Snow Data Assimilation System, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (i.e. MODIS) Global Evapotranspiration Project, the Simplified Surface Energy Balance model, and the Monthly Water Balance Model). This provides each HRU with a distinct set of parameter values that captures the variability within the CONUS, leading to improved model performance. We present simulation results from the NHM after preliminary calibration, including the results of basin-level calibration for the NHM using: 1) default initial GF parameter values, and 2) parameter values calibrated by HRU.

Integrated hydrologic model of Pajaro Valley, Santa Cruz and Monterey Counties, California

Science.gov (United States)

Hanson, Randall T.; Schmid, Wolfgang; Faunt, Claudia C.; Lear, Jonathan; Lockwood, Brian

2014-01-01

Increasing population, agricultural development (including shifts to more water-intensive crops), and climate variability are placing increasingly larger demands on available groundwater resources in the Pajaro Valley, one of the most productive agricultural regions in the world. This study provided a refined conceptual model, geohydrologic framework, and integrated hydrologic model of the Pajaro Valley. The goal of this study was to produce a model capable of being accurate at scales relevant to water management decisions that are being considered in the revision and updates to the Basin Management Plan (BMP). The Pajaro Valley Hydrologic Model (PVHM) was designed to reproduce the most important natural and human components of the hydrologic system and related climatic factors, permitting an accurate assessment of groundwater conditions and processes that can inform the new BMP and help to improve planning for long-term sustainability of water resources. Model development included a revision of the conceptual model of the flow system, reevaluation of the previous model transformed into MODFLOW, implementation of the new geohydrologic model and conceptual model, and calibration of the transient hydrologic model.

Long Memory Models to Generate Synthetic Hydrological Series

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guilherme Armando de Almeida Pereira

2014-01-01

Full Text Available In Brazil, much of the energy production comes from hydroelectric plants whose planning is not trivial due to the strong dependence on rainfall regimes. This planning is accomplished through optimization models that use inputs such as synthetic hydrologic series generated from the statistical model PAR(p (periodic autoregressive. Recently, Brazil began the search for alternative models able to capture the effects that the traditional model PAR(p does not incorporate, such as long memory effects. Long memory in a time series can be defined as a significant dependence between lags separated by a long period of time. Thus, this research develops a study of the effects of long dependence in the series of streamflow natural energy in the South subsystem, in order to estimate a long memory model capable of generating synthetic hydrologic series.

Does model performance improve with complexity? A case study with three hydrological models

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Orth, Rene; Staudinger, Maria; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Seibert, Jan; Zappa, Massimiliano

2015-04-01

In recent decades considerable progress has been made in climate model development. Following the massive increase in computational power, models became more sophisticated. At the same time also simple conceptual models have advanced. In this study we validate and compare three hydrological models of different complexity to investigate whether their performance varies accordingly. For this purpose we use runoff and also soil moisture measurements, which allow a truly independent validation, from several sites across Switzerland. The models are calibrated in similar ways with the same runoff data. Our results show that the more complex models HBV and PREVAH outperform the simple water balance model (SWBM) in case of runoff but not for soil moisture. Furthermore the most sophisticated PREVAH model shows an added value compared to the HBV model only in case of soil moisture. Focusing on extreme events we find generally improved performance of the SWBM during drought conditions and degraded agreement with observations during wet extremes. For the more complex models we find the opposite behavior, probably because they were primarily developed for prediction of runoff extremes. As expected given their complexity, HBV and PREVAH have more problems with over-fitting. All models show a tendency towards better performance in lower altitudes as opposed to (pre-) alpine sites. The results vary considerably across the investigated sites. In contrast, the different metrics we consider to estimate the agreement between models and observations lead to similar conclusions, indicating that the performance of the considered models is similar at different time scales as well as for anomalies and long-term means. We conclude that added complexity does not necessarily lead to improved performance of hydrological models, and that performance can vary greatly depending on the considered hydrological variable (e.g. runoff vs. soil moisture) or hydrological conditions (floods vs. droughts).

Obtaining high-resolution stage forecasts by coupling large-scale hydrologic models with sensor data

Science.gov (United States)

Fries, K. J.; Kerkez, B.

2017-12-01

We investigate how "big" quantities of distributed sensor data can be coupled with a large-scale hydrologic model, in particular the National Water Model (NWM), to obtain hyper-resolution forecasts. The recent launch of the NWM provides a great example of how growing computational capacity is enabling a new generation of massive hydrologic models. While the NWM spans an unprecedented spatial extent, there remain many questions about how to improve forecast at the street-level, the resolution at which many stakeholders make critical decisions. Further, the NWM runs on supercomputers, so water managers who may have access to their own high-resolution measurements may not readily be able to assimilate them into the model. To that end, we ask the question: how can the advances of the large-scale NWM be coupled with new local observations to enable hyper-resolution hydrologic forecasts? A methodology is proposed whereby the flow forecasts of the NWM are directly mapped to high-resolution stream levels using Dynamical System Identification. We apply the methodology across a sensor network of 182 gages in Iowa. Of these sites, approximately one third have shown to perform well in high-resolution flood forecasting when coupled with the outputs of the NWM. The quality of these forecasts is characterized using Principal Component Analysis and Random Forests to identify where the NWM may benefit from new sources of local observations. We also discuss how this approach can help municipalities identify where they should place low-cost sensors to most benefit from flood forecasts of the NWM.

Assessing climate change impact by integrated hydrological modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Lajer Hojberg, Anker; Jørgen Henriksen, Hans; Olsen, Martin; der Keur Peter, van; Seaby, Lauren Paige; Troldborg, Lars; Sonnenborg, Torben; Refsgaard, Jens Christian

2013-04-01

Future climate may have a profound effect on the freshwater cycle, which must be taken into consideration by water management for future planning. Developments in the future climate are nevertheless uncertain, thus adding to the challenge of managing an uncertain system. To support the water managers at various levels in Denmark, the national water resources model (DK-model) (Højberg et al., 2012; Stisen et al., 2012) was used to propagate future climate to hydrological response under considerations of the main sources of uncertainty. The DK-model is a physically based and fully distributed model constructed on the basis of the MIKE SHE/MIKE11 model system describing groundwater and surface water systems and the interaction between the domains. The model has been constructed for the entire 43.000 km2 land area of Denmark only excluding minor islands. Future climate from General Circulation Models (GCM) was downscaled by Regional Climate Models (RCM) by a distribution-based scaling method (Seaby et al., 2012). The same dataset was used to train all combinations of GCM-RCMs and they were found to represent the mean and variance at the seasonal basis equally well. Changes in hydrological response were computed by comparing the short term development from the period 1990 - 2010 to 2021 - 2050, which is the time span relevant for water management. To account for uncertainty in future climate predictions, hydrological response from the DK-model using nine combinations of GCMs and RCMs was analysed for two catchments representing the various hydrogeological conditions in Denmark. Three GCM-RCM combinations displaying high, mean and low future impacts were selected as representative climate models for which climate impact studies were carried out for the entire country. Parameter uncertainty was addressed by sensitivity analysis and was generally found to be of less importance compared to the uncertainty spanned by the GCM-RCM combinations. Analysis of the simulations

Hydrologic control on redox and nitrogen dynamics in a peatland soil

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Rubol, Simonetta, E-mail: rubols@ing.unitn.it [Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile ed Ambientale, Universita di Trento, Via Mesiano 77, I 38123 Trento (Italy); Silver, Whendee L. [Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, 130 Mulford Hall, University of California, Berkeley, CA, 94720 (United States); Bellin, Alberto [Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile ed Ambientale, Universita di Trento, Via Mesiano 77, I 38123 Trento (Italy)

2012-08-15

Soils are a dominant source of nitrous oxide (N{sub 2}O), a potent greenhouse gas. However, the complexity of the drivers of N{sub 2}O production and emissions has hindered our ability to predict the magnitude and spatial dynamics of N{sub 2}O fluxes. Soil moisture can be considered a key driver because it influences oxygen (O{sub 2}) supply, which feeds back on N{sub 2}O sources (nitrification versus denitrification) and sinks (reduction to dinitrogen). Soil water content is directly linked to O{sub 2} and redox potential, which regulate microbial metabolism and chemical transformations in the environment. Despite its importance, only a few laboratory studies have addressed the effects of hydrological transient dynamics on nitrogen (N) cycling in the vadose zone. To further investigate these aspects, we performed a long term experiment in a 1.5 m depth soil column supplemented by chamber experiments. With this experiment, we aimed to investigate how soil moisture dynamics influence redox sensitive N cycling in a peatland soil. As expected, increased soil moisture lowered O{sub 2} concentrations and redox potential in the soil. The decline was more severe for prolonged saturated conditions than for short events and at deep than at the soil surface. Gaseous and dissolved N{sub 2}O, dissolved nitrate (NO{sub 3}{sup -}) and ammonium (NH{sub 4}{sup +}) changed considerably along the soil column profile following trends in soil O{sub 2} and redox potential. Hot spots of N{sub 2}O concentrations corresponded to high variability in soil O{sub 2} in the upper and lower parts of the column. Results from chamber experiments confirmed high NO{sub 3}{sup -} reduction potential in soils, particularly from the bottom of the column. Under our experimental conditions, we identified a close coupling of soil O{sub 2} and N{sub 2}O dynamics, both of which lagged behind soil moisture changes. These results highlight the relationship among soil hydrologic properties, redox potential

Parameterization of a Hydrological Model for a Large, Ungauged Urban Catchment

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Gerald Krebs

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Urbanization leads to the replacement of natural areas by impervious surfaces and affects the catchment hydrological cycle with adverse environmental impacts. Low impact development tools (LID that mimic hydrological processes of natural areas have been developed and applied to mitigate these impacts. Hydrological simulations are one possibility to evaluate the LID performance but the associated small-scale processes require a highly spatially distributed and explicit modeling approach. However, detailed data for model development are often not available for large urban areas, hampering the model parameterization. In this paper we propose a methodology to parameterize a hydrological model to a large, ungauged urban area by maintaining at the same time a detailed surface discretization for direct parameter manipulation for LID simulation and a firm reliance on available data for model conceptualization. Catchment delineation was based on a high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM and model parameterization relied on a novel model regionalization approach. The impact of automated delineation and model regionalization on simulation results was evaluated for three monitored study catchments (5.87–12.59 ha. The simulated runoff peak was most sensitive to accurate catchment discretization and calibration, while both the runoff volume and the fit of the hydrograph were less affected.

Climate change impact on available water resources obtained using multiple global climate and hydrology models

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S. Hagemann

2013-05-01

Full Text Available Climate change is expected to alter the hydrological cycle resulting in large-scale impacts on water availability. However, future climate change impact assessments are highly uncertain. For the first time, multiple global climate (three and hydrological models (eight were used to systematically assess the hydrological response to climate change and project the future state of global water resources. This multi-model ensemble allows us to investigate how the hydrology models contribute to the uncertainty in projected hydrological changes compared to the climate models. Due to their systematic biases, GCM outputs cannot be used directly in hydrological impact studies, so a statistical bias correction has been applied. The results show a large spread in projected changes in water resources within the climate–hydrology modelling chain for some regions. They clearly demonstrate that climate models are not the only source of uncertainty for hydrological change, and that the spread resulting from the choice of the hydrology model is larger than the spread originating from the climate models over many areas. But there are also areas showing a robust change signal, such as at high latitudes and in some midlatitude regions, where the models agree on the sign of projected hydrological changes, indicative of higher confidence in this ensemble mean signal. In many catchments an increase of available water resources is expected but there are some severe decreases in Central and Southern Europe, the Middle East, the Mississippi River basin, southern Africa, southern China and south-eastern Australia.

Hydrological Modelling using HEC-HMS for Flood Risk Assessment of Segamat Town, Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Romali, N. S.; Yusop, Z.; Ismail, A. Z.

2018-03-01

This paper presents an assessment of the applicability of using Hydrologic Modelling System developed by the Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC-HMS) for hydrological modelling of Segamat River. The objective of the model application is to assist in the assessment of flood risk by providing the peak flows of 2011 Segamat flood for the generation of flood mapping of Segamat town. The capability of the model was evaluated by comparing the historical observed data with the simulation results of the selected flood events. The model calibration and validation efficiency was verified using Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient. The results demonstrate the interest to implement the hydrological model for assessing flood risk where the simulated peak flow result is in agreement with historical observed data. The model efficiency of the calibrated and validated exercises is 0.90 and 0.76 respectively, which is acceptable.

HESS Opinions: Hydrologic predictions in a changing environment: behavioral modeling

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S. J. Schymanski

2011-02-01

Full Text Available Most hydrological models are valid at most only in a few places and cannot be reasonably transferred to other places or to far distant time periods. Transfer in space is difficult because the models are conditioned on past observations at particular places to define parameter values and unobservable processes that are needed to fully characterize the structure and functioning of the landscape. Transfer in time has to deal with the likely temporal changes to both parameters and processes under future changed conditions. This remains an important obstacle to addressing some of the most urgent prediction questions in hydrology, such as prediction in ungauged basins and prediction under global change. In this paper, we propose a new approach to catchment hydrological modeling, based on universal principles that do not change in time and that remain valid across many places. The key to this framework, which we call behavioral modeling, is to assume that there are universal and time-invariant organizing principles that can be used to identify the most appropriate model structure (including parameter values and responses for a given ecosystem at a given moment in time. These organizing principles may be derived from fundamental physical or biological laws, or from empirical laws that have been demonstrated to be time-invariant and to hold at many places and scales. Much fundamental research remains to be undertaken to help discover these organizing principles on the basis of exploration of observed patterns of landscape structure and hydrological behavior and their interpretation as legacy effects of past co-evolution of climate, soils, topography, vegetation and humans. Our hope is that the new behavioral modeling framework will be a step forward towards a new vision for hydrology where models are capable of more confidently predicting the behavior of catchments beyond what has been observed or experienced before.