Long-Term Observations of Dust Storms in Sandy Desert Environments

Science.gov (United States)

Yun, Hye-Won; Kim, Jung-Rack; Choi, Yun-Soo

2015-04-01

Mineral dust occupies the largest portion of atmospheric aerosol. Considering the numerous risks that dust poses for socioeconomic and anthropogenic activities, it is crucial to understand sandy desert environments, which frequently generate dust storms and act as a primary source of atmospheric aerosol. To identify mineral aerosol mechanisms, it is essential to monitor desert environmental factors involving dust storm generation in the long term. In this study, we focused on two major environmental factors: local surface roughness and soil moisture. Since installments of ground observation networks in sandy deserts are unfeasible, remote sensing techniques for mining desert environmental factors were employed. The test area was established within the Badain Jaran and Kubuqi Deserts in Inner Mongolia, China, where significant seasonal aeolian processes emit mineral dust that influences all of East Asia. To trace local surface roughness, we employed a multi-angle imaging spectroradiometer (MISR) image sequence to extract multi-angle viewing (MAV) topographic parameters such as normalized difference angular index, which represents characteristics of the target desert topography. The backscattering coefficient from various space-borne SAR and stereotopography were compared with MAV observations to determine calibrated local surface roughness. Soil moisture extraction techniques from InSAR-phase coherence stacks were developed and compiled with advanced scatterometer (ASCAT) soil moisture data. Combined with metrological information such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA interim, correlations between intensity of sand dune activity as a proxy of aeolian processes in desert environments, surface wind conditions, and surface soil moisture were traced. Overall, we have confirmed that tracking sandy desert aeolian environments for long-term observations is feasible with space-borne, multi-sensor observations when combined with

Origin-Dependent Variations in the Atmospheric Microbiome in Eastern Mediterranean Dust Storms

Science.gov (United States)

Rudich, Y.; Gat, D.

2017-12-01

Microorganisms carried by dust storms are transported through the atmosphere and may affect human health and the functionality of microbial communities in various environments. Characterizing the dust-borne microbiome in dust storms of different origins, or that followed different trajectories, provides valuable data to improve our understanding of global health and environmental impacts. We present a comparative study on the diversity of dust- borne bacterial communities in dust storms from three distinct origins—North Africa, Syria and Saudi Arabia—and compare them with local bacterial communities sampled on clear days, all collected at a single location, in Israel. Storms from different dust origins exhibited distinct bacterial communities, with signature bacterial taxa for each source. Dust storms were characterized by a lower abundance of selected antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) compared with ambient dust, asserting that the origin of these genes is local, possibly anthropogenic. With the progression of the storm, the storm-borne bacterial community showed increasing resemblance to ambient dust, suggesting mixing with local dust. We will also discuss how exposure to dust containing biological components affect lung epithelial cells. These results show, for the first time, that dust storms from different sources display distinct bacterial communities, suggesting possible distinct effects on the environment and public health.

[Geochemical characteristics and sources of atmospheric particulates in Shanghai during dust storm event].

Science.gov (United States)

Qian, Peng; Zheng, Xiang-min; Zhou, Li-min

2013-05-01

Atmospheric particulates were sampled from three sampling sites of Putuo, Minhang and Qingpu Districts in Shanghai between Oct. , 2009 and Oct. , 2010. In addition, particulate samples were also collected from Nantong, Zhengzhou, Xi'an, and Beijing city where dust storm dust transported along during spring. Element compositions of atmospheric particulates were determined by XRF and ICP-MS. The concentrations of major and trace elements in atmospheric particulates from Putuo, Minhang and Qingpu Districts were similar, indicating their common source. The UCC standardization distribution map showed that the major element composition of dust storm samples was similar to that of loess in northwestern China, indicating that the dust storm dust was mainly derived from Western desert and partly from local area. The REE partition patterns of dust storm dusts among different cities along dust transport route were similar to each other, as well as to those of northern loess, which indicates that the dust storm samples may have the same material source as loess, which mainly comes from crust material. However, the REE partition patterns of non-dust storm particulates were different among the studied cities, and different from those of loess, which suggests that the non-dust storm samples may be mixed with non-crust source material, which is different from dust storm dust and loess. The major element composition and REE partition pattern are effective indicators for source tracing of dust storm dust.

Using forecast information for storm ride-through control

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Barahona Garzón, Braulio; Trombe, Pierre-Julien; Vincent, Claire Louise

2013-01-01

Using probabilistic forecast information in control algorithms can improve the performance of wind farms during periods of extreme winds. This work presents a wind farm supervisor control concept that uses probabilistic forecast information to ride-through a storm with softer ramps of power. Wind...... speed forecasts are generated with a statistical approach (i.e. time series models). The supervisor control is based on a set of logical rules that consider point forecasts and predictive densities to ramp-down the power of the wind farm before the storm hits. The potential of this supervisor control...

Spring Dust Storm Smothers Beijing

Science.gov (United States)

2002-01-01

A few days earlier than usual, a large, dense plume of dust blew southward and eastward from the desert plains of Mongolia-quite smothering to the residents of Beijing. Citizens of northeastern China call this annual event the 'shachenbao,' or 'dust cloud tempest.' However, the tempest normally occurs during the spring time. The dust storm hit Beijing on Friday night, March 15, and began coating everything with a fine, pale brown layer of grit. The region is quite dry; a problem some believe has been exacerbated by decades of deforestation. According to Chinese government estimates, roughly 1 million tons of desert dust and sand blow into Beijing each year. This true-color image was made using two adjacent swaths (click to see the full image) of data from the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS), flying aboard the OrbView-2 satellite, on March 17, 2002. The massive dust storm (brownish pixels) can easily be distinguished from clouds (bright white pixels) as it blows across northern Japan and eastward toward the open Pacific Ocean. The black regions are gaps between SeaWiFS' viewing swaths and represent areas where no data were collected. Image courtesy the SeaWiFS Project, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, and ORBIMAGE

Thermal tides and Martian dust storms: Direct evidence for coupling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leovy, C.B.; Zurek, R.W.

1979-01-01

Observations of surface pressure oscillations at the Viking 1 and Viking 2 lander sites on Mars indicate that the thermally driven global atmospheric tides were closely coupled to the dust content of the Martian atmosphere, especially during northern fall and winter, when two successive global dust storms occurred. The onset of each of these global storms was marked by substantial, nearly simultaneous increases in the dust opacity and in the range of the daily surface pressure variation observed at both lander sites. Although both the diurnal and semidiurnal tidal surface pressure components were amplified at Lander 1 during the onset of a global dust storm, the semidiurnal component was greatly enhanced in relation to the diurnal tide. Semidiurnal wind components were prominent at both lander sites during the height of the global dust storm. We have attempted to interpret these observations using simplified dynamical models. In particular, the semidiurnal wind component can be successfully related to the observed surface pressure variation using a simplified model of a semidiurnally forced Ekman boundary layer. On the other hand, a classical atmospheric tidal model shows that the preferential enhancement of the semidiurnal surface pressure oscillation at Lander 1 can be produced by a tidal heating distribution which places most of the heating (per unit mass) above 10-km altitude. Furthermore, when a dust storm expands to global scale, it does so rather quickly, and the total atmospheric heating at the peak of the dust storm can represent more than 50% of the available insolation. The Viking observations suggest that a number of mechanisms are important for the generation and decay of these episodic Martian global dust storms

Hindicast and forecast of the Parsifal storm

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bertotti, L.; Cavaleri, L. [Istituto Studio Dinamica Grandi Masse, Venice (Italy); De girolamo, P.; Magnaldi, S. [Rome, Univ. `La Sapienza` (Italy). Dip. di Idraulica, Trasporti e Strade; Franco, L. [Rome, III Univ. (Italy). Dip. di Scienze dell`Ingegneria Civile

1998-05-01

On 2 November 1995 a Mistral storm in the Gulf of Lions sank the 16 metre yacht Parsifal claiming six lives out of the nine member crew. The authors analyse the storm with different meteorological and wave models, verifying the results against the available buoy and satellite measurements. Then the authors consider the accuracy of the storm forecasts and the information available the days before the accident. The limitations related to the resolution of the meteorological models are explored by hind casting the storm also with the winds produced by some limited area models. Finally, the authors discuss the present situation of wind and wave hind cast and forecast in the Mediterranean Sea, and the distribution of these results to the public.

Effects of Asian dust storm events on daily mortality in Taipei, Taiwan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Y.-S.; Sheen, P.-C.; Chen, E.-R.; Liu, Y.-K.; Wu, T.-N.; Yang, C.-Y.

2004-01-01

In spring, windblown dust storms originating in the deserts of Mongolia and China make their way to Taipei City. These occurrences are known as Asian dust storm events. The objective of this study was to assess the possible effects of Asian dust storms on the mortality of residents in Taipei, Taiwan, during the period from 1995 to 2000. We identified 39 dust storm episodes, which were classified as index days. Daily deaths on the index days were compared with deaths on the comparison days. We selected two comparison days for each index day, 7 days before the index day and 7 days after the index day. The strongest estimated effects of dust storms were increases of 7.66% in risk for respiratory disease 1 day after the event, 4.92% for total deaths 2 days following the dust storms and 2.59% for circulatory diseases 2 days following the dust storms. However, none of these effects were statistically significant. This study found greater specificity for associations with respiratory deaths, and this increases the likelihood that the association between dust events and daily mortality represents a causal relationship

Meteorological aspects associated with dust storms in the Sistan region, southeastern Iran

Science.gov (United States)

Kaskaoutis, D. G.; Rashki, A.; Houssos, E. E.; Mofidi, A.; Goto, D.; Bartzokas, A.; Francois, P.; Legrand, M.

2015-07-01

Dust storms are considered natural hazards that seriously affect atmospheric conditions, ecosystems and human health. A key requirement for investigating the dust life cycle is the analysis of the meteorological (synoptic and dynamic) processes that control dust emission, uplift and transport. The present work focuses on examining the synoptic and dynamic meteorological conditions associated with dust-storms in the Sistan region, southeastern Iran during the summer season (June-September) of the years 2001-2012. The dust-storm days (total number of 356) are related to visibility records below 1 km at Zabol meteorological station, located near to the dust source. RegCM4 model simulations indicate that the intense northern Levar wind, the high surface heating and the valley-like characteristics of the region strongly affect the meteorological dynamics and the formation of a low-level jet that are strongly linked with dust exposures. The intra-annual evolution of the dust storms does not seem to be significantly associated with El-Nino Southern Oscillation, despite the fact that most of the dust-storms are related to positive values of Oceanic Nino Index. National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis suggests that the dust storms are associated with low sea-level pressure conditions over the whole south Asia, while at 700 hPa level a trough of low geopotential heights over India along with a ridge over Arabia and central Iran is the common scenario. A significant finding is that the dust storms over Sistan are found to be associated with a pronounced increase of the anticyclone over the Caspian Sea, enhancing the west-to-east pressure gradient and, therefore, the blowing of Levar. Infrared Difference Dust Index values highlight the intensity of the Sistan dust storms, while the SPRINTARS model simulates the dust loading and concentration reasonably well, since the dust storms are usually associated with peaks in model

Mars atmospheric phenomena during major dust storms, as measured at surface

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ryan, J.A.; Henry, R.M.

1979-01-01

Meteorological instrumentation aboard the Viking Mars Landers measures wind, temperature, and pressure. Two global dust storms occurred during northern autumn and winter, observed both by the orbiters and by the landers. The meteorological data from the landers has been analyzed for the period just before first storm arrival to just after second storm arrival, with the objectives being definition of meteorological phenomena during the storm period, determination of those associated with storm and dust arrival, and evaluation of effects on synoptic conditions and the general circulation. Times of dust arrival over the sites could be defined fairly closely from optical and pressure (solar tide) data, and dust arrival was also accompanied by changes in diurnal temperature range, temperature maxima, and temperature minima. The arrivals of the storms at VL-1 were accompanied by significant increase in wind speed and pressure. No such changes were observed at VL-2. It is possible that surface material could have been raised locally at VL-1. Throughout the period except following the second dust storm synoptic picture at VL-2 was one of eastward moving cyclonic and anticyclonic systems. These disappeared following the second storm, a phenomenon which may be related to the storm

Dust storms and their impact on ocean and human health: dust in Earth's atmosphere

Science.gov (United States)

Griffin, Dale W.; Kellog, Christina A.

2004-01-01

Satellite imagery has greatly influenced our understanding of dust activity on a global scale. A number of different satellites such as NASA's Earth-Probe Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and Se-viewing Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) acquire daily global-scale data used to produce imagery for monitoring dust storm formation and movement. This global-scale imagery has documented the frequent transmission of dust storm-derived soils through Earth's atmosphere and the magnitude of many of these events. While various research projects have been undertaken to understand this normal planetary process, little has been done to address its impact on ocean and human health. This review will address the ability of dust storms to influence marine microbial population densities and transport of soil-associated toxins and pathogenic microorganisms to marine environments. The implications of dust on ocean and human health in this emerging scientific field will be discussed.

Characterisation of atmospheric deposited particles during a dust storm in urban areas of Eastern Australia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gunawardena, Janaka, E-mail: j.gunawardena@qut.edu.au; Ziyath, Abdul M., E-mail: mohamed.ziyath@qut.edu.au; Bostrom, Thor E., E-mail: t.bostrom@qut.edu.au; Bekessy, Lambert K., E-mail: l.bekessy@qut.edu.au; Ayoko, Godwin A., E-mail: g.ayoko@qut.edu.au; Egodawatta, Prasanna, E-mail: p.egodawatta@qut.edu.au; Goonetilleke, Ashantha, E-mail: a.goonetilleke@qut.edu.au

2013-09-01

The characteristics of dust particles deposited during the 2009 dust storm in the Gold Coast and Brisbane regions of Australia are discussed in this paper. The study outcomes provide important knowledge in relation to the potential impacts of dust storm related pollution on ecosystem health in the context that the frequency of dust storms is predicted to increase due to anthropogenic desert surface modifications and climate change impacts. The investigated dust storm contributed a large fraction of fine particles to the environment with an increased amount of total suspended solids, compared to dry deposition under ambient conditions. Although the dust storm passed over forested areas, the organic carbon content in the dust was relatively low. The primary metals present in the dust storm deposition were aluminium, iron and manganese, which are common soil minerals in Australia. The dust storm deposition did not contain significant loads of nickel, cadmium, copper and lead, which are commonly present in the urban environment. Furthermore, the comparison between the ambient and dust storm chromium and zinc loads suggested that these metals were contributed to the dust storm by local anthropogenic sources. The potential ecosystem health impacts of the 2009 dust storm include, increased fine solids deposition on ground surfaces resulting in an enhanced capacity to adsorb toxic pollutants as well as increased aluminium, iron and manganese loads. In contrast, the ecosystem health impacts related to organic carbon and other metals from dust storm atmospheric deposition are not considered to be significant. - Highlights: • The dust storm contributed a large fraction of fine particles to pollutant build-up. • The dust storm increased TSS, Al, Fe and Mn loads in build-up on ground surfaces. • Dust storm did not significantly increase TOC, Ni, Cu, Pb and Cd loads in build-up. • Cr and Zn in dust storm deposition were contributed by local anthropogenic sources.

Characterisation of atmospheric deposited particles during a dust storm in urban areas of Eastern Australia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gunawardena, Janaka; Ziyath, Abdul M.; Bostrom, Thor E.; Bekessy, Lambert K.; Ayoko, Godwin A.; Egodawatta, Prasanna; Goonetilleke, Ashantha

2013-01-01

The characteristics of dust particles deposited during the 2009 dust storm in the Gold Coast and Brisbane regions of Australia are discussed in this paper. The study outcomes provide important knowledge in relation to the potential impacts of dust storm related pollution on ecosystem health in the context that the frequency of dust storms is predicted to increase due to anthropogenic desert surface modifications and climate change impacts. The investigated dust storm contributed a large fraction of fine particles to the environment with an increased amount of total suspended solids, compared to dry deposition under ambient conditions. Although the dust storm passed over forested areas, the organic carbon content in the dust was relatively low. The primary metals present in the dust storm deposition were aluminium, iron and manganese, which are common soil minerals in Australia. The dust storm deposition did not contain significant loads of nickel, cadmium, copper and lead, which are commonly present in the urban environment. Furthermore, the comparison between the ambient and dust storm chromium and zinc loads suggested that these metals were contributed to the dust storm by local anthropogenic sources. The potential ecosystem health impacts of the 2009 dust storm include, increased fine solids deposition on ground surfaces resulting in an enhanced capacity to adsorb toxic pollutants as well as increased aluminium, iron and manganese loads. In contrast, the ecosystem health impacts related to organic carbon and other metals from dust storm atmospheric deposition are not considered to be significant. - Highlights: • The dust storm contributed a large fraction of fine particles to pollutant build-up. • The dust storm increased TSS, Al, Fe and Mn loads in build-up on ground surfaces. • Dust storm did not significantly increase TOC, Ni, Cu, Pb and Cd loads in build-up. • Cr and Zn in dust storm deposition were contributed by local anthropogenic sources

The Spatial Variation of Dust Particulate Matter Concentrations during Two Icelandic Dust Storms in 2015

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pavla Dagsson-Waldhauserova

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Particulate matter mass concentrations and size fractions of PM1, PM2.5, PM4, PM10, and PM15 measured in transversal horizontal profile of two dust storms in southwestern Iceland are presented. Images from a camera network were used to estimate the visibility and spatial extent of measured dust events. Numerical simulations were used to calculate the total dust flux from the sources as 180,000 and 280,000 tons for each storm. The mean PM15 concentrations inside of the dust plumes varied from 10 to 1600 µg·m−3 (PM10 = 7 to 583 µg·m−3. The mean PM1 concentrations were 97–241 µg·m−3 with a maximum of 261 µg·m−3 for the first storm. The PM1/PM2.5 ratios of >0.9 and PM1/PM10 ratios of 0.34–0.63 show that suspension of volcanic materials in Iceland causes air pollution with extremely high PM1 concentrations, similar to polluted urban areas in Europe or Asia. Icelandic volcanic dust consists of a higher proportion of submicron particles compared to crustal dust. Both dust storms occurred in relatively densely inhabited areas of Iceland. First results on size partitioning of Icelandic dust presented here should challenge health authorities to enhance research in relation to dust and shows the need for public dust warning systems.

Effect of dust storms on FSO communications links

KAUST Repository

Esmail, Maged Abdullah; Fathallah, Habib; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim

2017-01-01

In literature, there is a lake of information about free space optic (FSO) systems' performance in arid and semi-arid areas that are prone to frequent dust storms. Therefore, in this paper, we investigate the performance of FSO links under dust storm conditions. We aim to determine the limits and capabilities of such systems in this harsh environment. To achieve this goal, we use some performance metrics including signal-to-noise (SNR) ratio, bit error rate (BER), and channel capacity. The results show that dust is a rough impairment that causes link drop under low visibility range. Moreover, we found that the system performance can be improved by using short segments or multi-hop system. Furthermore, the results show negligible improvement in system performance under dense dust. The comparison of fog and dust impairments show that dust introduces much higher attenuation than fog. Therefore, dust can be considered as the ultimate impairment for FSO links.

Effect of dust storms on FSO communications links

KAUST Repository

Esmail, Maged Abdullah

2017-05-18

In literature, there is a lake of information about free space optic (FSO) systems\\' performance in arid and semi-arid areas that are prone to frequent dust storms. Therefore, in this paper, we investigate the performance of FSO links under dust storm conditions. We aim to determine the limits and capabilities of such systems in this harsh environment. To achieve this goal, we use some performance metrics including signal-to-noise (SNR) ratio, bit error rate (BER), and channel capacity. The results show that dust is a rough impairment that causes link drop under low visibility range. Moreover, we found that the system performance can be improved by using short segments or multi-hop system. Furthermore, the results show negligible improvement in system performance under dense dust. The comparison of fog and dust impairments show that dust introduces much higher attenuation than fog. Therefore, dust can be considered as the ultimate impairment for FSO links.

Interannual Similarity in the Martian Atmosphere During the Dust Storm Season

Science.gov (United States)

Kass, D. M.; Kleinboehl, A.; McCleese, D. J.; Schofield, J. T.; Smith, M. D.

2016-01-01

We find that during the dusty season on Mars (southern spring and summer) of years without a global dust storm there are three large regional-scale dust storms. The storms are labeled A, B, and C in seasonal order. This classification is based on examining the zonal mean 50 Pa (approximately 25 km) daytime temperature retrievals from TES/MGS and MCS/MRO over 6 Mars Years. Regional-scale storms are defined as events where the temperature exceeds 200 K. Examining the MCS dust field at 50 Pa indicates that warming in the Southern Hemisphere is dominated by direct heating, while northern high latitude warming is a dynamical response. A storms are springtime planet encircling Southern Hemisphere events. B storms are southern polar events that begin near perihelion and last through the solstice. C storms are southern summertime events starting well after the end of the B storm. C storms show the most interannual variability.

The Role of Jet Adjustment Processes in Subtropical Dust Storms

Science.gov (United States)

Pokharel, Ashok Kumar; Kaplan, Michael L.; Fiedler, Stephanie

2017-11-01

Meso-α/β/γ scale atmospheric processes of jet dynamics responsible for generating Harmattan, Saudi Arabian, and Bodélé Depression dust storms are analyzed with observations and high-resolution modeling. The analysis of the role of jet adjustment processes in each dust storm shows similarities as follows: (1) the presence of a well-organized baroclinic synoptic scale system, (2) cross mountain flows that produced a leeside inversion layer prior to the large-scale dust storm, (3) the presence of thermal wind imbalance in the exit region of the midtropospheric jet streak in the lee of the respective mountains shortly after the time of the inversion formation, (4) dust storm formation accompanied by large magnitude ageostrophic isallobaric low-level winds as part of the meso-β scale adjustment process, (5) substantial low-level turbulence kinetic energy (TKE), and (6) emission and uplift of mineral dust in the lee of nearby mountains. The thermally forced meso-γ scale adjustment processes, which occurred in the canyons/small valleys, may have been the cause of numerous observed dust streaks leading to the entry of the dust into the atmosphere due to the presence of significant vertical motion and TKE generation. This study points to the importance of meso-β to meso-γ scale adjustment processes at low atmospheric levels due to an imbalance within the exit region of an upper level jet streak for the formation of severe dust storms. The low level TKE, which is one of the prerequisites to deflate the dust from the surface, cannot be detected with the low resolution data sets; so our results show that a high spatial resolution is required for better representing TKE as a proxy for dust emission.

Dust storm detection using random forests and physical-based ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

arid areas of the Middle. East. Due to the influences of dust aerosols on climate and human daily activities, dust detection plays a crucial role in environmental and climatic studies. Detection of dust storms is critical to accurately under- stand dust ...

Martian dust storms as a possible sink of atmospheric methane

Science.gov (United States)

Farrell, W. M.; Delory, G. T.; Atreya, S. K.

2006-11-01

Recent laboratory tests, analog studies and numerical simulations all suggest that Martian dust devils and larger dusty convective storms generate and maintain large-scale electric fields. Such expected E-fields will have the capability to create significant electron drift motion in the collisional gas and to form an extended high energy (u $\\gg$ kT) electron tail in the distribution. We demonstrate herein that these energetic electrons are capable of dissociating any trace CH4 in the ambient atmosphere thereby acting as an atmospheric sink of this important gas. We demonstrate that the methane destruction rate increases by a factor of 1012 as the dust storm E-fields, E, increase from 5 to 25 kV/m, resulting in an apparent decrease in methane stability from ~ 1010 sec to a value of ~1000 seconds. While destruction in dust storms is severe, the overall methane lifetime is expected to decrease only moderately due to recycling of products, heterogeneous effects from localized sinks, etc. We show further evidence that the electrical activity anticipated in Martian dust storms creates a new harsh electro-chemical environment.

Dust forecasting system in JMA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mikami, M; Tanaka, T Y; Maki, T

2009-01-01

JMAs dust forecasting information, which is based on a GCM dust model, is presented through the JMA website coupled with nowcast information. The website was updated recently and JMA and MOE joint 'KOSA' website was open from April 2008. Data assimilation technique will be introduced for improvement of the 'KOSA' information.

Three-dimensional variational assimilation of MODIS aerosol optical depth: Implementation and application to a dust storm over East Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Zhiquan; Liu, Quanhua; Lin, Hui-Chuan; Schwartz, Craig S.; Lee, Yen-Huei; Wang, Tijian

2011-12-01

Assimilation of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) total aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrieval products (at 550 nm wavelength) from both Terra and Aqua satellites have been developed within the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) data assimilation system. This newly developed algorithm allows, in a one-step procedure, the analysis of 3-D mass concentration of 14 aerosol variables from the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) module. The Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) was extended to calculate AOD using GOCART aerosol variables as input. Both the AOD forward model and corresponding Jacobian model were developed within the CRTM and used in the 3DVAR minimization algorithm to compute the AOD cost function and its gradient with respect to 3-D aerosol mass concentration. The impact of MODIS AOD data assimilation was demonstrated by application to a dust storm from 17 to 24 March 2010 over East Asia. The aerosol analyses initialized Weather Research and Forecasting/Chemistry (WRF/Chem) model forecasts. Results indicate that assimilating MODIS AOD substantially improves aerosol analyses and subsequent forecasts when compared to MODIS AOD, independent AOD observations from the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) instrument, and surface PM10 (particulate matter with diameters less than 10 μm) observations. The newly developed AOD data assimilation system can serve as a tool to improve simulations of dust storms and general air quality analyses and forecasts.

EMC: Air Quality Forecast Home page

Science.gov (United States)

Modeling with NCEP NMMB ( Z. Janjic) ECMWF GEMS Project WMO Sand and Dust Storm Warning and Advisory System Air Quality Forecast Links U.S. AQ Forecast Products Canadian AQ Forecastsp Navy Aerosol Prediction

Forecasting the northern African dust outbreak towards Europe in April 2011: a model intercomparison

Science.gov (United States)

Huneeus, N.; Basart, S.; Fiedler, S.; Morcrette, J.-J.; Benedetti, A.; Mulcahy, J.; Terradellas, E.; Pérez García-Pando, C.; Pejanovic, G.; Nickovic, S.; Arsenovic, P.; Schulz, M.; Cuevas, E.; Baldasano, J. M.; Pey, J.; Remy, S.; Cvetkovic, B.

2016-04-01

In the framework of the World Meteorological Organisation's Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System, we evaluated the predictions of five state-of-the-art dust forecast models during an intense Saharan dust outbreak affecting western and northern Europe in April 2011. We assessed the capacity of the models to predict the evolution of the dust cloud with lead times of up to 72 h using observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and dust surface concentrations from a ground-based measurement network. In addition, the predicted vertical dust distribution was evaluated with vertical extinction profiles from the Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). To assess the diversity in forecast capability among the models, the analysis was extended to wind field (both surface and profile), synoptic conditions, emissions and deposition fluxes. Models predict the onset and evolution of the AOD for all analysed lead times. On average, differences among the models are larger than differences among lead times for each individual model. In spite of large differences in emission and deposition, the models present comparable skill for AOD. In general, models are better in predicting AOD than near-surface dust concentration over the Iberian Peninsula. Models tend to underestimate the long-range transport towards northern Europe. Our analysis suggests that this is partly due to difficulties in simulating the vertical distribution dust and horizontal wind. Differences in the size distribution and wet scavenging efficiency may also account for model diversity in long-range transport.

Identification of dust storm source areas in West Asia using multiple environmental datasets.

Science.gov (United States)

Cao, Hui; Amiraslani, Farshad; Liu, Jian; Zhou, Na

2015-01-01

Sand and Dust storms are common phenomena in arid and semi-arid areas. West Asia Region, especially Tigris-Euphrates alluvial plain, has been recognized as one of the most important dust source areas in the world. In this paper, a method is applied to extract SDS (Sand and Dust Storms) sources in West Asia region using thematic maps, climate and geography, HYSPLIT model and satellite images. Out of 50 dust storms happened during 2000-2013 and collected in form of MODIS images, 27 events were incorporated as demonstrations of the simulated trajectories by HYSPLIT model. Besides, a dataset of the newly released Landsat images was used as base-map for the interpretation of SDS source regions. As a result, six main clusters were recognized as dust source areas. Of which, 3 clusters situated in Tigris-Euphrates plain were identified as severe SDS sources (including 70% dust storms in this research). Another cluster in Sistan plain is also a potential source area. This approach also confirmed six main paths causing dust storms. These paths are driven by the climate system including Siberian and Polar anticyclones, monsoon from Indian Subcontinent and depression from north of Africa. The identification of SDS source areas and paths will improve our understandings on the mechanisms and impacts of dust storms on socio-economy and environment of the region. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Two-Step Forecast of Geomagnetic Storm Using Coronal Mass Ejection and Solar Wind Condition

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, R.-S.; Moon, Y.-J.; Gopalswamy, N.; Park, Y.-D.; Kim, Y.-H.

2014-01-01

To forecast geomagnetic storms, we had examined initially observed parameters of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and introduced an empirical storm forecast model in a previous study. Now we suggest a two-step forecast considering not only CME parameters observed in the solar vicinity but also solar wind conditions near Earth to improve the forecast capability. We consider the empirical solar wind criteria derived in this study (Bz = -5 nT or Ey = 3 mV/m for t = 2 h for moderate storms with minimum Dst less than -50 nT) (i.e. Magnetic Field Magnitude, B (sub z) less than or equal to -5 nanoTeslas or duskward Electrical Field, E (sub y) greater than or equal to 3 millivolts per meter for time greater than or equal to 2 hours for moderate storms with Minimum Disturbance Storm Time, Dst less than -50 nanoTeslas) and a Dst model developed by Temerin and Li (2002, 2006) (TL [i.e. Temerin Li] model). Using 55 CME-Dst pairs during 1997 to 2003, our solar wind criteria produce slightly better forecasts for 31 storm events (90 percent) than the forecasts based on the TL model (87 percent). However, the latter produces better forecasts for 24 nonstorm events (88 percent), while the former correctly forecasts only 71 percent of them. We then performed the two-step forecast. The results are as follows: (i) for 15 events that are incorrectly forecasted using CME parameters, 12 cases (80 percent) can be properly predicted based on solar wind conditions; (ii) if we forecast a storm when both CME and solar wind conditions are satisfied (n, i.e. cap operator - the intersection set that is comprised of all the elements that are common to both), the critical success index becomes higher than that from the forecast using CME parameters alone, however, only 25 storm events (81 percent) are correctly forecasted; and (iii) if we forecast a storm when either set of these conditions is satisfied (?, i.e. cup operator - the union set that is comprised of all the elements of either or both

Dust Storm Hits Canary Islands

Science.gov (United States)

2002-01-01

A thick pall of sand and dust blew out from the Sahara Desert over the Atlantic Ocean yesterday (January 6, 2002), engulfing the Canary Islands in what has become one of the worst sand storms ever recorded there. In this scene, notice how the dust appears particularly thick in the downwind wake of Tenerife, the largest of the Canary Islands. Perhaps the turbulence generated by the air currents flowing past the island's volcanic peaks is churning the dust back up into the atmosphere, rather than allowing it to settle toward the surface. This true-color image was captured by the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), flying aboard NASA's Terra satellite, on January 7, 2002. Image courtesy Jacques Descloitres, MODIS Land Rapid Response Team at NASA GSFC

Dust storm, northern Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

1983-01-01

This large dust storm along the left side of the photo, covers a large portion of the state of Coahuila, Mexico (27.5N, 102.0E). The look angle of this oblique photo is from the south to the north. In the foreground is the Sierra Madre Oriental in the states Coahuila and Nuevo Leon with the Rio Grande River, Amistad Reservoir and Texas in the background.

Coastal emergency managers' preferences for storm surge forecast communication.

Science.gov (United States)

Morrow, Betty Hearn; Lazo, Jeffrey K

2014-01-01

Storm surge, the most deadly hazard associated with tropical and extratropical cyclones, is the basis for most evacuation decisions by authorities. One factor believed to be associated with evacuation noncompliance is a lack of understanding of storm surge. To address this problem, federal agencies responsible for cyclone forecasts are seeking more effective ways of communicating storm surge threat. To inform this process, they are engaging various partners in the forecast and warning process.This project focuses on emergency managers. Fifty-three emergency managers (EMs) from the Gulf and lower Atlantic coasts were surveyed to elicit their experience with, sources of, and preferences for storm surge information. The emergency managers-who are well seasoned in hurricane response and generally rate the surge risk in their coastal areas above average or extremely high-listed storm surge as their major concern with respect to hurricanes. They reported a general lack of public awareness about surge. Overall they support new ways to convey the potential danger to the public, including the issuance of separate storm surge watches and warnings, and the expression of surge heights using feet above ground level. These EMs would like more maps, graphics, and visual materials for use in communicating with the public. An important concern is the timing of surge forecasts-whether they receive them early enough to be useful in their evacuation decisions.

Detection of Asian Dust Storm Using MODIS Measurements

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yong Xie

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Every year, a large number of aerosols are released from dust storms into the atmosphere, which may have potential impacts on the climate, environment, and air quality. Detecting dust aerosols and monitoring their movements and evolutions in a timely manner is a very significant task. Satellite remote sensing has been demonstrated as an effective means for observing dust aerosols. In this paper, an algorithm based on the multi-spectral technique for detecting dust aerosols was developed by combining measurements of moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS reflective solar bands and thermal emissive bands. Data from dust events that occurred during the past several years were collected as training data for spectral and statistical analyses. According to the spectral curves of various scene types, a series of spectral bands was selected individually or jointly, and corresponding thresholds were defined for step-by-step scene classification. The multi-spectral algorithm was applied mainly to detect dust storms in Asia. The detection results were validated not only visually with MODIS true color images, but also quantitatively with products of Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI and Cloud Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP. The validations showed that this multi-spectral detection algorithm was suitable to monitor dust aerosols in the selected study areas.

Surface observation of sand and dust storm in East Asia and its application in CUACE/Dust

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Q. Wang

2008-02-01

Full Text Available The spatial-temporal distributions and sources of sand and dust storm (SDS in East Asia from 2001 to 2006 were investigated on the basis of visibility and PM₁₀ data from the routine SDS and weather monitoring networks run by CMA (China Meteorological Administration. A power functional relationships between PM₁₀ and visibility was found among various regions generally with a good correlation (r²=0.90, especially in Asian SDS source regions. In addition, three SDS occurrence centers, i.e. western China, Mongolia and northern China, were identified with the Mongolia source contributing more dust to the downwind areas including Korea and Japan than other two sources. Generally, high PM₁₀ concentrations were observed in most areas of northern China. The highest value was obtained in the center of western China with a spring daily mean value of 876 μgm⁻³, and the value in other source regions exceeds 200 μgm⁻³. These data sets together with the satellite observations in China form the main observation database for the evaluation and data assimilation of CUACE/Dust system – an operational SDS forecasting system for East Asia.

Forecasting the northern African dust outbreak towards Europe in April 2011: a model intercomparison

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. Huneeus

2016-04-01

Full Text Available In the framework of the World Meteorological Organisation's Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System, we evaluated the predictions of five state-of-the-art dust forecast models during an intense Saharan dust outbreak affecting western and northern Europe in April 2011. We assessed the capacity of the models to predict the evolution of the dust cloud with lead times of up to 72 h using observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS and dust surface concentrations from a ground-based measurement network. In addition, the predicted vertical dust distribution was evaluated with vertical extinction profiles from the Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP. To assess the diversity in forecast capability among the models, the analysis was extended to wind field (both surface and profile, synoptic conditions, emissions and deposition fluxes. Models predict the onset and evolution of the AOD for all analysed lead times. On average, differences among the models are larger than differences among lead times for each individual model. In spite of large differences in emission and deposition, the models present comparable skill for AOD. In general, models are better in predicting AOD than near-surface dust concentration over the Iberian Peninsula. Models tend to underestimate the long-range transport towards northern Europe. Our analysis suggests that this is partly due to difficulties in simulating the vertical distribution dust and horizontal wind. Differences in the size distribution and wet scavenging efficiency may also account for model diversity in long-range transport.

Data Assimilation within the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) Modeling Framework for Hurricane Storm Surge Forecasting

KAUST Repository

Butler, T.

2012-07-01

Accurate, real-time forecasting of coastal inundation due to hurricanes and tropical storms is a challenging computational problem requiring high-fidelity forward models of currents and water levels driven by hurricane-force winds. Despite best efforts in computational modeling there will always be uncertainty in storm surge forecasts. In recent years, there has been significant instrumentation located along the coastal United States for the purpose of collecting data—specifically wind, water levels, and wave heights—during these extreme events. This type of data, if available in real time, could be used in a data assimilation framework to improve hurricane storm surge forecasts. In this paper a data assimilation methodology for storm surge forecasting based on the use of ensemble Kalman filters and the advanced circulation (ADCIRC) storm surge model is described. The singular evolutive interpolated Kalman (SEIK) filter has been shown to be effective at producing accurate results for ocean models using small ensemble sizes initialized by an empirical orthogonal function analysis. The SEIK filter is applied to the ADCIRC model to improve storm surge forecasting, particularly in capturing maximum water levels (high water marks) and the timing of the surge. Two test cases of data obtained from hindcast studies of Hurricanes Ike and Katrina are presented. It is shown that a modified SEIK filter with an inflation factor improves the accuracy of coarse-resolution forecasts of storm surge resulting from hurricanes. Furthermore, the SEIK filter requires only modest computational resources to obtain more accurate forecasts of storm surge in a constrained time window where forecasters must interact with emergency responders.

Accelerating Dust Storm Simulation by Balancing Task Allocation in Parallel Computing Environment

Science.gov (United States)

Gui, Z.; Yang, C.; XIA, J.; Huang, Q.; YU, M.

2013-12-01

Dust storm has serious negative impacts on environment, human health, and assets. The continuing global climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of dust storm in the past decades. To better understand and predict the distribution, intensity and structure of dust storm, a series of dust storm models have been developed, such as Dust Regional Atmospheric Model (DREAM), the NMM meteorological module (NMM-dust) and Chinese Unified Atmospheric Chemistry Environment for Dust (CUACE/Dust). The developments and applications of these models have contributed significantly to both scientific research and our daily life. However, dust storm simulation is a data and computing intensive process. Normally, a simulation for a single dust storm event may take several days or hours to run. It seriously impacts the timeliness of prediction and potential applications. To speed up the process, high performance computing is widely adopted. By partitioning a large study area into small subdomains according to their geographic location and executing them on different computing nodes in a parallel fashion, the computing performance can be significantly improved. Since spatiotemporal correlations exist in the geophysical process of dust storm simulation, each subdomain allocated to a node need to communicate with other geographically adjacent subdomains to exchange data. Inappropriate allocations may introduce imbalance task loads and unnecessary communications among computing nodes. Therefore, task allocation method is the key factor, which may impact the feasibility of the paralleling. The allocation algorithm needs to carefully leverage the computing cost and communication cost for each computing node to minimize total execution time and reduce overall communication cost for the entire system. This presentation introduces two algorithms for such allocation and compares them with evenly distributed allocation method. Specifically, 1) In order to get optimized solutions, a

An automated and integrated framework for dust storm detection based on ogc web processing services

Science.gov (United States)

Xiao, F.; Shea, G. Y. K.; Wong, M. S.; Campbell, J.

2014-11-01

Dust storms are known to have adverse effects on public health. Atmospheric dust loading is also one of the major uncertainties in global climatic modelling as it is known to have a significant impact on the radiation budget and atmospheric stability. The complexity of building scientific dust storm models is coupled with the scientific computation advancement, ongoing computing platform development, and the development of heterogeneous Earth Observation (EO) networks. It is a challenging task to develop an integrated and automated scheme for dust storm detection that combines Geo-Processing frameworks, scientific models and EO data together to enable the dust storm detection and tracking processes in a dynamic and timely manner. This study develops an automated and integrated framework for dust storm detection and tracking based on the Web Processing Services (WPS) initiated by Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC). The presented WPS framework consists of EO data retrieval components, dust storm detecting and tracking component, and service chain orchestration engine. The EO data processing component is implemented based on OPeNDAP standard. The dust storm detecting and tracking component combines three earth scientific models, which are SBDART model (for computing aerosol optical depth (AOT) of dust particles), WRF model (for simulating meteorological parameters) and HYSPLIT model (for simulating the dust storm transport processes). The service chain orchestration engine is implemented based on Business Process Execution Language for Web Service (BPEL4WS) using open-source software. The output results, including horizontal and vertical AOT distribution of dust particles as well as their transport paths, were represented using KML/XML and displayed in Google Earth. A serious dust storm, which occurred over East Asia from 26 to 28 Apr 2012, is used to test the applicability of the proposed WPS framework. Our aim here is to solve a specific instance of a complex EO data

Oxidant enhancement in martian dust devils and storms: storm electric fields and electron dissociative attachment.

Science.gov (United States)

Delory, Gregory T; Farrell, William M; Atreya, Sushil K; Renno, Nilton O; Wong, Ah-San; Cummer, Steven A; Sentman, Davis D; Marshall, John R; Rafkin, Scot C R; Catling, David C

2006-06-01

Laboratory studies, numerical simulations, and desert field tests indicate that aeolian dust transport can generate atmospheric electricity via contact electrification or "triboelectricity." In convective structures such as dust devils and dust storms, grain stratification leads to macroscopic charge separations and gives rise to an overall electric dipole moment in the aeolian feature, similar in nature to the dipolar electric field generated in terrestrial thunderstorms. Previous numerical simulations indicate that these storm electric fields on Mars can approach the ambient breakdown field strength of approximately 25 kV/m. In terrestrial dust phenomena, potentials ranging from approximately 20 to 160 kV/m have been directly measured. The large electrostatic fields predicted in martian dust devils and storms can energize electrons in the low pressure martian atmosphere to values exceeding the electron dissociative attachment energy of both CO2 and H2O, which results in the formation of the new chemical products CO/O- and OH/H-, respectively. Using a collisional plasma physics model, we present calculations of the CO/O- and OH/H- reaction and production rates. We demonstrate that these rates vary geometrically with the ambient electric field, with substantial production of dissociative products when fields approach the breakdown value of approximately 25 kV/m. The dissociation of H2O into OH/H- provides a key ingredient for the generation of oxidants; thus electrically charged dust may significantly impact the habitability of Mars.

Long-term variability of dust-storms in Iceland

Science.gov (United States)

Dagsson-Waldhauserová, Pavla; Ólafsson, Haraldur; Arnalds, Ólafur

2013-04-01

Iceland is a volcanic island in the North Atlantic Ocean with maritime climate. In spite of moist climate, large areas are with limited vegetation cover where >40% of Iceland is classified with considerable to very severe erosion and 21% of Iceland are volcanic sandy deserts. Natural emissions from these sources influenced by strong winds affect not only regional air quality in Iceland ("Reykjavik haze") but dust particles are transported over the Atlantic ocean and Arctic Ocean > 1000 km at times. The study places Icelandic dust production area into international perspective, present long term frequency of dust storm events in NE Iceland, and estimate dust aerosol concentrations during reported dust events. Meteorological observations with dust presence codes and related visibility were used to identify the frequency and the long-term changes in dust production in NE Iceland. There were annually 16.4 days on average with reported dust observations on weather stations within the NE erosion area, indicating extreme dust plume activity and erosion within the NE deserts, even though the area is covered with snow during the major part of winter. During the 2000s the highest occurrence of dust events in six decades was reported. We have measured saltation and aeolian transport during dust/volcanic ash storms in Iceland which give some of the most intense wind erosion events ever measured. Icelandic dust affects the ecosystems over much of Iceland and causes regional haze. It is likely to affect the ecosystems of the oceans around Iceland, and it brings dust that lowers the albedo of the Icelandic glaciers, increasing melt-off due to global warming. The study indicates that Icelandic dust is not only a substantial source for regional air pollution, but may be considered to contribute to the Arctic haze phenomena and Arctic air pollution.

Paracas dust storms: Sources, trajectories and associated meteorological conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Briceño-Zuluaga, F.; Castagna, A.; Rutllant, J. A.; Flores-Aqueveque, V.; Caquineau, S.; Sifeddine, A.; Velazco, F.; Gutierrez, D.; Cardich, J.

2017-09-01

Dust storms that develop along the Pisco-Ica desert in Southern Peru, locally known as ;Paracas; winds have ecological, health and economic repercussions. Here we identify dust sources through MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) imagery and analyze HYSPLIT (Hybrid Single Particles Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory) model trajectories and dispersion patterns, along with concomitant synoptic-scale meteorological conditions from National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis (NCEP/NCAR). Additionally, surface pressure data from the hourly METeorological Aerodrome Report (METAR) at Arica (18.5°S, 70.3°W) and Pisco (13.7°S, 76.2°W) were used to calculate Alongshore (sea-level) Pressure Gradient (APG) anomalies during Paracas dust storms, their duration and associated wind-speeds and wind directions. This study provides a review on the occurrence and strength of the Paracas dust storms as reported in the Pisco airfield for five-year period and their correspondence with MODIS true-color imagery in terms of dust-emission source areas. Our results show that most of the particle fluxes moving into the Ica-Pisco desert area during Paracas wind events originate over the coastal zone, where strong winds forced by steep APGs develop as the axis of a deep mid-troposphere trough sets in along north-central Chile. Direct relationships between Paracas wind intensity, number of active dust-emission sources and APGs are also documented, although the scarcity of simultaneous METAR/MODIS data for clearly observed MODIS dust plumes prevents any significant statistical inference. Synoptic-scale meteorological composites from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data show that Paracas wind events (steep APGs) are mostly associated with the strengthening of anticyclonic conditions in northern Chile, that can be attributed to cold air advection associated with the incoming trough. Compared to the MODIS images, HYSPLIT outputs were able

Investigation of Three-Dimensional Evolution of East Asian Dust Storm by Modeling and Remote Sensing Measurements

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jiawei Li

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The three-dimensional evolution of an East Asian dust storm during 23–26 April 2009 was investigated by utilizing a regional air quality model system (RAQMS and satellite measurements. This severe dust storm hit Mt. Tai in east China with daily mean PM10 concentration reaching 1400 μg/m3 and the model captured the PM10 variation reasonably well. Modeled spatial distributions of AOD and vertical profiles of aerosol extinction coefficient during the dust storm were compared with MODIS and CALIPSO data, demonstrating that RAQMS was able to reproduce the 3D structure and the evolution of the dust storm reasonably well. During early days of the dust storm, daily mean dust-induced AOD exceeded 2.0 over dust source regions (the Gobi desert and the Taklamakan desert and was in a range of 1.2–1.8 over the North China Plain, accounting for about 98% and up to 90% of total AOD over corresponding areas, respectively. The top of the dust storm reached about 8 km over east China, with high dust concentration locating at around 40°N. Dust aerosol below 2 km was transported southeastward off the Gobi desert while dust above 2 km was transported out of China along 40°–45°N.

Radio Emissions from Electrical Activity in Martian Dust Storms

Science.gov (United States)

Majid, W.; Arabshahi, S.; Kocz, J.; Schulter, T.; White, L.

2017-12-01

Dust storms on Mars are predicted to be capable of producing electrostatic fields and discharges, even larger than those in dust storms on Earth. There are three key elements in the characterization of Martian electrostatic discharges: dependence on Martian environmental conditions, event rate, and the strength of the generated electric fields. The detection and characterization of electric activity in Martian dust storms has important implications for habitability, and preparations for human exploration of the red planet. Furthermore, electrostatic discharges may be linked to local chemistry and plays an important role in the predicted global electrical circuit. Because of the continuous Mars telecommunication needs of NASA's Mars-based assets, the Deep Space Network (DSN) is the only facility in the world that combines long term, high cadence, observing opportunities with large sensitive telescopes, making it a unique asset worldwide in searching for and characterizing electrostatic activity from large scale convective dust storms at Mars. We will describe a newly inaugurated program at NASA's Madrid Deep Space Communication Complex to carry out a long-term monitoring campaign to search for and characterize the entire Mars hemisphere for powerful discharges during routine tracking of spacecraft at Mars on an entirely non-interfering basis. The ground-based detections will also have important implications for the design of a future instrument that could make similar in-situ measurements from orbit or from the surface of Mars, with far greater sensitivity and duty cycle, opening up a new window in our understanding of the Martian environment.

Activation analysis of deposited dust brought to Israel by dust storms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ganor, E.; Tal, A.; Donagi, A.

1975-01-01

The determination of dust particles deposited in Jerusalem during regional dust storms was carried out by polarized microscopy, X-ray analysis and atomic absorption measurements. These analyses showed the presence of particles of quartz, calcite, dolomite, feldspar, halite, kaolinite, montmorillonite, epidote, tourmaline, glauconite, illite and other heavy minerals. The aims of the present study were to apply activation analysis for the determination of element composition in dust samples; to compare the results obtained by activation analysis with those obtained by other methods, i.e. chemical analysis, polarized microscopy and X-ray analysis. The results obtained by the various methods were in good agreement. (B.G.)

Development of a Severe Sand-dust Storm Model and its Application to Northwest China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Xiaoling; Cheng, Linsheng; Chung, Yong-Seung

2003-01-01

A very strong sand-dust storm occurred on 5 May, 1993 in Northwest China. In order to give a detailed description of the evolution of a mesoscale system along with the heavy sand-dust storm, a complex model including improved physical processes and a radiation parameterization scheme was developed based on a simulation model. The improved model introduced a sand-dust transport equation as well as a lifting transport model, sand-dust aerosols and radiation parameterization scheme.Using this model, the super sand-dust storm case on 5 May was simulated. Results indicated that the coupled mesoscale model successfully simulated the mesoscale vortex, its strong upward movement and the warm core structure of PBL. The generation and development of these structures were consistent with that of the sand-dust storm and dry squall-line (which was different with normal squall-line). Simulated sand-dust concentration and its radiative effect corresponded with observation data. The radiative effect of sand-dust aerosols caused the air to heat on the top of aerosol layer with a heating rate amounting to 2 K hr -1 . As a result, solar radiation flux that reached the surface, net radiation flux and surface temperature all suddenly went down. The temperature gradient across the cold front became obviously larger. Therefore, enhancing the development of the mesoscale system. The simulation generally reflected features during the squall-line passage of this strong sand-dust storm

The time interval distribution of sand–dust storms in theory: testing with observational data for Yanchi, China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, Guoliang; Zhang, Feng; Hao, Lizhen

2012-01-01

We previously introduced a time record model for use in studying the duration of sand–dust storms. In the model, X is the normalized wind speed and Xr is the normalized wind speed threshold for the sand–dust storm. X is represented by a random signal with a normal Gaussian distribution. The storms occur when X ≥ Xr. From this model, the time interval distribution of N = Aexp(−bt) can be deduced, wherein N is the number of time intervals with length greater than t, A and b are constants, and b is related to Xr. In this study, sand–dust storm data recorded in spring at the Yanchi meteorological station in China were analysed to verify whether the time interval distribution of the sand–dust storms agrees with the above time interval distribution. We found that the distribution of the time interval between successive sand–dust storms in April agrees well with the above exponential equation. However, the interval distribution for the sand–dust storm data for the entire spring period displayed a better fit to the Weibull equation and depended on the variation of the sand–dust storm threshold wind speed. (paper)

Effects of dust storm events on weekly clinic visits related to pulmonary tuberculosis disease in Minqin, China

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Yun; Wang, Ruoyu; Ming, Jing; Liu, Guangxiu; Chen, Tuo; Liu, Xinfeng; Liu, Haixia; Zhen, Yunhe; Cheng, Guodong

2016-02-01

Pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) is a major public health problem in China. Minqin, a Northwest county of China, has a very high number of annual PTB clinic visits and it is also known for its severe dust storms. The epidemic usually begins in February and ends in July, while the dust storms mainly occur throughout spring and early summer, thereby suggesting that there might be a close link between the causative agent of PTB and dust storms. We investigated the general impact of dust storms on PTB over time by analyzing the variation in weekly clinic visits in Minqin during 2005-2012. We used the Mann-Whitney-Pettitt test and a regression model to determine the seasonal periodicity of PTB and dust storms in a time series, as well as assessing the relationships between meteorological variables and weekly PTB clinic visits. After comparing the number of weekly PTB cases in Gansu province with dust storm events, we detected a clear link between the population dynamics of PTB and climate events, i.e., the onset of epidemics and dust storms (defined by an atmospheric index) occurred in almost the same mean week. Thus, particulate matter might be the cause of PTB outbreaks on dust storm days. It is highly likely that the significant decline in annual clinic visits was closely associated with improvements in the local environment, which prevented desertification and decreased the frequency of dust storm events. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first population-based study to provide clear evidence that a PTB epidemic was affected by dust storms in China, which may give insights into the association between this environmental problem and the evolution of epidemic disease.

An analysis of the correlation between dust storms in Korea and 137Cs nuclide concentration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, Soo-won; Kim, Jeong-hun; Shin, Sang-hwa; Hwang, Joo-ho

2008-01-01

Dust storms occur in Korea during spring time when fine dust is blown in from the far western regions of western China and Mongolia. A fine powdery dust is blown up into the sky and enters the upper reaches of the atmosphere where it is carried easterly across China then slowly falls to the ground on the Korean peninsula and Japan. The dust originates mostly in the Gobi dessert of China, as well as the yellow earth regions in the middle and upper streams of the Yellow river in China. Previous studies on dust storms have been limited to following or estimating their courses, distribution and frequency, or distribution of the heavy metals they transmit. However, since radionuclides exist in the dust, they must also exist in the dust storms. In this study, we analyzed the correlation of :1 37 Cs nuclide concentration based on a count of annual dust storm occurrence in the city of Suwon, South Korea and assessed seasonal differences of 137 Cs nuclide concentration

Climate change implications and use of early warning systems for global dust storms

Science.gov (United States)

Harriman, Lindsey M.

2014-01-01

With increased changes in land cover and global climate, early detection and warning of dust storms in conjunction with effective and widespread information broadcasts will be essential to the prevention and mitigation of future risks and impacts. Human activities, seasonal variations and long-term climatic patterns influence dust storms. More research is needed to analyse these factors of dust mobilisation to create more certainty for the fate of vulnerable populations and ecosystems in the future. Early warning and communication systems, when in place and effectively implemented, can offer some relief to these vulnerable areas. As an issue that affects many regions of the world, there is a profound need to understand the potential changes and ultimately create better early warning systems for dust storms.

Investigation of dust storms entering Western Iran using remotely sensed data and synoptic analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Boloorani, Ali D; Nabavi, Seyed O; Bahrami, Hosain A; Mirzapour, Fardin; Kavosi, Musa; Abasi, Esmail; Azizi, Rasoul

2014-01-01

One of the natural phenomena which have had considerable impacts on various regions of the world, including Iran, is "dust storm". In recent years, this phenomenon has taken on new dimensions in Iran and has changed from a local problem to a national issue. This study is an attempt to investigate the formation of the dust storms crossing the Western Iran. To find the sources of the dust storms entering Iran, first we examine three determined dust paths in the region and their temporal activities, using MODIS satellite images. Then, four regions were identified as dust sources through soil, land cover and wind data. Finally, atmospheric analyses are implemented to find synoptic patterns inducing dust storms. Source 1 has covered the region between the eastern banks of Euphrates and western banks of Tigris. Source 2 is in desert area of western and south-western Iraq. Finally source 3 is bounded in eastern and south-eastern deserts of Saudi Arabia called Rub-Al-Khali desert, or Empty Quarter. Moreover, south-eastern part of Iraq (source 4) was also determined as a secondary source which thickens the dust masses originating from the above mentioned sources. The study of synoptic circulations suggests that the dust storms originating from source 1 are formed due to the intense pressure gradient between the low-pressure system of Zagros and a high-pressure cell formed on Mediterranean Sea. The dust events in sources 2 and 3 are outcomes of the atmospheric circulations dominant in the cold period of the year in mid-latitudes.

Numerical study of Asian dust transport during the springtime of 2001 simulated with the Chemical Weather Forecasting System (CFORS) model

Science.gov (United States)

Uno, Itsushi; Satake, Shinsuke; Carmichael, Gregory R.; Tang, Youhua; Wang, Zifa; Takemura, Toshihiko; Sugimoto, Nobuo; Shimizu, Atsushi; Murayama, Toshiyuki; Cahill, Thomas A.; Cliff, Steven; Uematsu, Mitsuo; Ohta, Sachio; Quinn, Patricia K.; Bates, Timothy S.

2004-10-01

The regional-scale aerosol transport model Chemical Weather Forecasting System (CFORS) is used for analysis of large-scale dust phenomena during the Asian Pacific Regional Characterization Experiment (ACE-Asia) intensive observation. Dust modeling results are examined with the surface weather reports, satellite-derived dust index (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) Aerosol Index (AI)), Mie-scattering lidar observation, and surface aerosol observations. The CFORS dust results are shown to accurately reproduce many of the important observed features. Model analysis shows that the simulated dust vertical loading correlates well with TOMS AI and that the dust loading is transported with the meandering of the synoptic-scale temperature field at the 500-hPa level. Quantitative examination of aerosol optical depth shows that model predictions are within 20% difference of the lidar observations for the major dust episodes. The structure of the ACE-Asia Perfect Dust Storm, which occurred in early April, is clarified with the help of the CFORS model analysis. This storm consisted of two boundary layer components and one elevated dust (>6-km height) feature (resulting from the movement of two large low-pressure systems). Time variation of the CFORS dust fields shows the correct onset timing of the elevated dust for each observation site, but the model results tend to overpredict dust concentrations at lower latitude sites. The horizontal transport flux at 130°E longitude is examined, and the overall dust transport flux at 130°E during March-April is evaluated to be 55 Tg.

Parameterization of Rocket Dust Storms on Mars in the LMD Martian GCM: Modeling Details and Validation

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Chao; Forget, François; Bertrand, Tanguy; Spiga, Aymeric; Millour, Ehouarn; Navarro, Thomas

2018-04-01

The origin of the detached dust layers observed by the Mars Climate Sounder aboard the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter is still debated. Spiga et al. (2013, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgre.20046) revealed that deep mesoscale convective "rocket dust storms" are likely to play an important role in forming these dust layers. To investigate how the detached dust layers are generated by this mesoscale phenomenon and subsequently evolve at larger scales, a parameterization of rocket dust storms to represent the mesoscale dust convection is designed and included into the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD) Martian Global Climate Model (GCM). The new parameterization allows dust particles in the GCM to be transported to higher altitudes than in traditional GCMs. Combined with the horizontal transport by large-scale winds, the dust particles spread out and form detached dust layers. During the Martian dusty seasons, the LMD GCM with the new parameterization is able to form detached dust layers. The formation, evolution, and decay of the simulated dust layers are largely in agreement with the Mars Climate Sounder observations. This suggests that mesoscale rocket dust storms are among the key factors to explain the observed detached dust layers on Mars. However, the detached dust layers remain absent in the GCM during the clear seasons, even with the new parameterization. This implies that other relevant atmospheric processes, operating when no dust storms are occurring, are needed to explain the Martian detached dust layers. More observations of local dust storms could improve the ad hoc aspects of this parameterization, such as the trigger and timing of dust injection.

The relationship between gorgonian coral (Cnidaria: Gorgonacea) diseases and African dust storms

Science.gov (United States)

Weir-Brush, J. R.; Garrison, V.H.; Smith, G.W.; Shinn, E.A.

2004-01-01

The number of reports of coral diseases has increased throughout the world in the last 20 years. Aspergillosis, which primarily affects Gorgonia ventalina and G. flabellum, is one of the few diseases to be characterized. This disease is caused by Aspergillus sydowii, a terrestrial fungus with a worldwide distribution. Upon infection, colonies may lose tissue, and ultimately, mortality may occur if the infection is not sequestered. The spores of A. sydowii are African dust storms transport and deposit pathogens, we collected air samples from both dust storms and periods of nondust in St. John, U.S. Virgin Islands. Because we focused on fungal pathogens and used A. sydowii as a model, we isolated and cultured fungi on various types of media. Fungi including Aspergillus spp. were isolated from air samples taken from dust events and non-dust events. Twenty-three separate cultures and seven genera were isolated from dust event samples whereas eight cultures from five genera were isolated from non-dust air samples. Three isolates from the Virgin Islands dust event samples morphologically identified as Aspergillus spp. produced signs of aspergillosis in seafans, and the original pathogens were re-isolated from those diseased seafans fulfilling Koch's Postulates. This research supports the hypothesis that African dust storms transport across the Atlantic Ocean and deposit potential coral pathogens in the Caribbean.

Aerosol Particles from Dried Salt-Lakes and Saline Soils Carried on Dust Storms over Beijing

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Xingying Zhang

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Characteristics of individual particles from a super dust storm (DS on 20 March 2002, and those of non dust storm aero sols for Beijing (NDS and Duolun (DL (a desert area are determined using a variety of methods. In China, typically the source of aero sols in dust storms is thought to be deserts with alumino silicates being the main constituent particles; how ever, this does not reflect a complete analysis with our evidence indicating potential alternate dust sources along the storm's trans port path. Individual particle anal y sis of aero sols collected from a super dust storm on 20 March 2002 in Beijing shows that among all the 14 elements measured, only S and Cl have re mark able positive correlation. 82.5% of all particles measured contained both S and Cl, and the relative mass per cent age of S and Cl in these particles is much higher than the average of all particles. 62.0% of all particles contained S, Cl, and Na, in which the concentration of Na is 1.4 times higher than average. PMF (Positive Matrix Factorization anal y sis indicates that NaCl and Na2SO4 are major components of these particles with S and Cl showing significant positive correlation. More over, SO4 2- and Cl- also show significant positive correlation in bulk aero sol analysis. XPS (X-ray Pho to electron Spectros copy analysis of the surface of aero sols demonstrates that concentrations of Na and S on particles from the dust storm are higher than those from non-dust storm particles in Beijing and also for particles from. It is very likely that particles enriched with S, Cl, and Na is from the surface soils of dried salt-lakes and saline soils enriched with chloride and sulfate. This evidence demonstrates that be sides deserts, surface soils from dry salt-lakes and saline soils of arid and semi-arid areas are also sources of particulates in dust storms over Beijing.

A dynamic system to forecast ionospheric storm disturbances based on solar wind conditions

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L. R. Cander

2005-06-01

Full Text Available For the reliable performance of technologically advanced radio communications systems under geomagnetically disturbed conditions, the forecast and modelling of the ionospheric response during storms is a high priority. The ionospheric storm forecasting models that are currently in operation have shown a high degree of reliability during quiet conditions, but they have proved inadequate during storm events. To improve their prediction accuracy, we have to take advantage of the deeper understanding in ionospheric storm dynamics that is currently available, indicating a correlation between the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF disturbances and the qualitative signature of ionospheric storm disturbances at middle latitude stations. In this paper we analyse observations of the foF2 critical frequency parameter from one mid-latitude European ionospheric station (Chilton in conjunction with observations of IMF parameters (total magnitude, Bt and Bz-IMF component from the ACE spacecraft mission for eight storm events. The determination of the time delay in the ionospheric response to the interplanetary medium disturbances leads to significant results concerning the forecast of the ionospheric storms onset and their development during the first 24 h. In this way the real-time ACE observations of the solar wind parameters may be used in the development of a real-time dynamic ionospheric storm model with adequate accuracy.

Thermal Tides During the 2001 Martian Global-Scale Dust Storm

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Guzewich, Scott D.; Wilson, R. John; McConnochie, Timothy H.; Toigo, Anthony D.; Bandfield, Donald J.; Smith, Michael D.

2014-01-01

The 2001 (Mars Year 25) global dust storm radically altered the dynamics of the Martian atmosphere. Using observations from the Thermal Emission Spectrometer onboard the Mars Global Surveyor spacecraft and Mars WRF general circulation model simulations, we examine the changes to thermal tides and planetary waves caused by the storm. We find that the extratropical diurnal migrating tide is dramatically enhanced during the storm, particularly in the southern hemisphere, reaching amplitudes of more than 20 K. The tropical diurnal migrating tide is weakened to almost undetectable levels. The diurnal Kelvin waves are also significantly weakened, particularly during the period of global expansion at Ls=200deg-210deg. In contrast, the westward propagating diurnal wavenumber 2 tide strengthens to 4-8 K at altitudes above 30km. The wavenumber 1 stationary wave reaches amplitudes of 10-12 K at 50deg-70degN, far larger than is typically seen during this time of year. The phase of this stationary wave and the enhancement of the diurnal wavenumber 2 tide appear to be responses to the high-altitude westward propagating equatorial wavenumber 1 structure in dust mixing ratio observed during the storm in previous works. This work provides a global picture of dust storm wave dynamics that reveals the coupling between the tropics and high-latitude wave responses. We conclude that the zonal distribution of thermotidal forcing from atmospheric aerosol concentration is as important to understanding the atmospheric wave response as the total global mean aerosol optical depth.

Vulnerability Assessment of Dust Storms in the United States under a Changing Climate Scenario

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Severe weather events, such as flooding, drought, forest fires, and dust storms can have a serious impact on human health. Dust storm events are not well predicted in the United States, however they are expected to become more frequent as global climate warms through the 21st cen...

Dust Storms from Degraded Drylands of Asia: Dynamics and Health Impacts

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Shinji Otani

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Asian dust events are massive meteorological phenomena during which dust particles from Chinese and Mongolian deserts are blown into the atmosphere and carried by westerly winds across Northeast Asia. Recently, there has been steady increase in both the frequency and the severity of Asian atmospheric dust events. Concern has been expressed regarding the potential health hazards in affected areas. The principal nature of the damage associated with Asian dust events differs between the emission (sandstorm and downwind (air pollution regions. In the emission region, the health impacts of dust storms are reflected in the high prevalence of respiratory diseases and severe subjective symptoms. Extreme dust storm events may cause a disaster to happen. In downwind regions such as Japan, analysis of Asian dust particles has shown the presence of ammonium ions, sulfate ions, nitrate ions, and heavy metal compounds that are considered not to originate from soil. Asian dust particles have been thought to adsorb anthropogenic atmospheric pollutants during transport. Therefore, Asian dust events coincide with increases in daily hospital admissions and clinical visits for allergic diseases such as asthma, allergic rhinitis, and conjunctivitis. Although the effect of Asian dust on human health in each region is influenced by a variety of different mechanisms, human activities are partly responsible for such negative effects in many situations. We therefore need to address these environmental problems.

The dual effect of vegetation green-up date and strong wind on the return period of spring dust storms.

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Feng, Jieling; Li, Ning; Zhang, Zhengtao; Chen, Xi

2017-08-15

Vegetation phenology changes have been widely applied in the disaster risk assessments of the spring dust storms, and vegetation green-up date shifts have a strong influence on dust storms. However, the effect of earlier vegetation green-up dates due to climate warming on the evaluation of dust storms return periods remains an important, but poorly understood issue. In this study, we evaluate the spring dust storm return period (February to June) in Inner Mongolia, Northern China, using 165 observations of severe spring dust storm events from 16 weather stations, and regional vegetation green-up dates as an integrated factor from NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), covering a period from 1982 to 2007, by building the bivariate Copula model. We found that the joint return period showed better fitting results than without considering the integrated factor when the actual dust storm return period is longer than 2years. Also, for extremely severe dust storm events, the gap between simulation result and actual return period can be narrowed up to 0.4888years by using integrated factor. Furthermore, the risk map based on the return period results shows that the Mandula, Zhurihe, Sunitezuoqi, Narenbaolige stations are identified as high risk areas. In this study area, land surface is extensively covered by grasses and shrubs, vegetation green-up date can play a significant role in restraining spring dust storm outbreaks. Therefore, we suggest that Copula method can become a useful tool for joint return period evaluation and risk analysis of severe dust storms. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantitative detection of mass concentration of sand-dust storms via wind-profiling radar and analysis of Z- M relationship

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Wang, Minzhong; Ming, Hu; Ruan, Zheng; Gao, Lianhui; Yang, Di

2018-02-01

With the aim to achieve quantitative monitoring of sand-dust storms in real time, wind-profiling radar is applied to monitor and study the process of four sand-dust storms in the Tazhong area of the Taklimakan Desert. Through evaluation and analysis of the spatial-temporal distribution of reflectivity factor, it is found that reflectivity factor ranges from 2 to 18 dBz under sand-dust storm weather. Using echo power spectrum of radar vertical beams, sand-dust particle spectrum and sand-dust mass concentration at the altitude of 600 ˜ 1500 m are retrieved. This study shows that sand-dust mass concentration reaches 700 μg/m3 under blowing sand weather, 2000 μg/m3 under sand-dust storm weather, and 400 μg/m3 under floating dust weather. The following equations are established to represent the relationship between the reflectivity factor and sand-dust mass concentration: Z = 20713.5 M 0.995 under floating dust weather, Z = 22988.3 M 1.006 under blowing sand weather, and Z = 24584.2 M 1.013 under sand-dust storm weather. The retrieval results from this paper are almost consistent with previous monitoring results achieved by former researchers; thus, it is implied that wind-profiling radar can be used as a new reference device to quantitatively monitor sand-dust storms.

The cascade from local to global dust storms on Mars: Temporal and spatial thresholds on thermal and dynamical feedback

Science.gov (United States)

Toigo, Anthony D.; Richardson, Mark I.; Wang, Huiqun; Guzewich, Scott D.; Newman, Claire E.

2018-03-01

We use the MarsWRF general circulation model to examine the temporal and spatial response of the atmosphere to idealized local and regional dust storm radiative heating. The ability of storms to modify the atmosphere away from the location of dust heating is a likely prerequisite for dynamical feedbacks that aid the growth of storms beyond the local scale, while the ability of storms to modify the atmosphere after the cessation of dust radiative heating is potentially important in preconditioning the atmosphere prior to large scale storms. Experiments were conducted over a range of static, prescribed storm sizes, durations, optical depth strengths, locations, and vertical extents of dust heating. Our results show that for typical sizes (order 105 km2) and durations (1-10 sols) of local dust storms, modification of the atmosphere is less than the typical variability of the unperturbed (storm-free) state. Even if imposed on regional storm length scales (order 106 km2), a 1-sol duration storm similarly does not significantly modify the background atmosphere. Only when imposed for 10 sols does a regional dust storm create a significant impact on the background atmosphere, allowing for the possibility of self-induced dynamical storm growth. These results suggest a prototype for how the subjective observational categorization of storms may be related to objective dynamical growth feedbacks that only become available to storms after they achieve a threshold size and duration, or if they grow into an atmosphere preconditioned by a prior large and sustained storm.

Verification of an ensemble prediction system for storm surge forecast in the Adriatic Sea

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Mel, Riccardo; Lionello, Piero

2014-12-01

In the Adriatic Sea, storm surges present a significant threat to Venice and to the flat coastal areas of the northern coast of the basin. Sea level forecast is of paramount importance for the management of daily activities and for operating the movable barriers that are presently being built for the protection of the city. In this paper, an EPS (ensemble prediction system) for operational forecasting of storm surge in the northern Adriatic Sea is presented and applied to a 3-month-long period (October-December 2010). The sea level EPS is based on the HYPSE (hydrostatic Padua Sea elevation) model, which is a standard single-layer nonlinear shallow water model, whose forcings (mean sea level pressure and surface wind fields) are provided by the ensemble members of the ECMWF (European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) EPS. Results are verified against observations at five tide gauges located along the Croatian and Italian coasts of the Adriatic Sea. Forecast uncertainty increases with the predicted value of the storm surge and with the forecast lead time. The EMF (ensemble mean forecast) provided by the EPS has a rms (root mean square) error lower than the DF (deterministic forecast), especially for short (up to 3 days) lead times. Uncertainty for short lead times of the forecast and for small storm surges is mainly caused by uncertainty of the initial condition of the hydrodynamical model. Uncertainty for large lead times and large storm surges is mainly caused by uncertainty in the meteorological forcings. The EPS spread increases with the rms error of the forecast. For large lead times the EPS spread and the forecast error substantially coincide. However, the EPS spread in this study, which does not account for uncertainty in the initial condition, underestimates the error during the early part of the forecast and for small storm surge values. On the contrary, it overestimates the rms error for large surge values. The PF (probability forecast) of the EPS

Simulation of spontaneous and variable global dust storms with the GFDL Mars GCM

OpenAIRE

Basu, Shabari; Wilson, John; Richardson, Mark; Ingersoll, Andrew

2006-01-01

We report on the successful simulation of global dust storms in a general circulation model. The simulated storms develop spontaneously in multiyear simulations and exhibit significant interannual variability. The simulated storms produce dramatic increases in atmospheric dustiness, global-mean air temperatures, and atmospheric circulation intensity, in accord with observations. As with observed global storms, spontaneous initiation of storms in the model occurs in southern spring and summer,...

[Dust storms trend in the Capital Circle of China over the past 50 years and its correlation with temperature, precipitation and wind].

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Chen, Yu-fu; Tang, Hai-ping

2005-01-01

The trends of number of dust storm days of the selected 11 meteorological stations from their established year to 2000 as well as their correlations with temperature, precipitation and wind are revealed. The number of dust storm days of the Capital Circle of China is distinctly variable in space and time. The numbers of dust storm days of the western area are far more than those of the eastern area. The interannual variability of number of dust storm days is remarkable. The number of dust storm days of the following 7 stations, Erlianhaote, Abaga, Xilinhaote, Fengning, Zhangjiakou, Huailai and Beijing, declined along the past decades, but those of the other four stations had no significant upward or downward trends. There is a marked seasonality of the number of dust storm days, and the maximum was in April. The correlation between number of dust storm days and number of days of mean wind velocity > 5 m/s, which is critical wind velocity to entrain sand into the air, was strongest among the three climatic factor. There were significant positive correlations between the number of dust storm days and number of days of mean wind velocity > 5 m/s in 6 stations. The second strongest climatic factor correlated with the number of dust storm days is temperature. There are significant negative correlations between the number of dust storm days and mean annual temperature, mean winter temperature, mean spring temperature in 3 or 4 stations. The correlation between the number of dust storm days and precipitation is weakest. Only one station, Zhurihe, showes significant negative correlation between the number of dust storm days and spring rainfall. There are 4 stations whose number of dust storm days don't significantly correlate with the climate. In the end, the spatial-temporal variability of dust storms and its relation with climate in the Capital Circle of China were discussed thoroughly.

Evaluation of the NCEP CFSv2 45-day Forecasts for Predictability of Intraseasonal Tropical Storm Activities

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Schemm, J. E.; Long, L.; Baxter, S.

2013-12-01

Evaluation of the NCEP CFSv2 45-day Forecasts for Predictability of Intraseasonal Tropical Storm Activities Jae-Kyung E. Schemm, Lindsey Long and Stephen Baxter Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA Predictability of intraseasonal tropical storm (TS) activities is assessed using the 1999-2010 CFSv2 hindcast suite. Weekly TS activities in the CFSv2 45-day forecasts were determined using the TS detection and tracking method devised by Carmago and Zebiak (2002). The forecast periods are divided into weekly intervals for Week 1 through Week 6, and also the 30-day mean. The TS activities in those intervals are compared to the observed activities based on the NHC HURDAT and JTWC Best Track datasets. The CFSv2 45-day hindcast suite is made of forecast runs initialized at 00, 06, 12 and 18Z every day during the 1999 - 2010 period. For predictability evaluation, forecast TS activities are analyzed based on 20-member ensemble forecasts comprised of 45-day runs made during the most recent 5 days prior to the verification period. The forecast TS activities are evaluated in terms of the number of storms, genesis locations and storm tracks during the weekly periods. The CFSv2 forecasts are shown to have a fair level of skill in predicting the number of storms over the Atlantic Basin with the temporal correlation scores ranging from 0.73 for Week 1 forecasts to 0.63 for Week 6, and the average RMS errors ranging from 0.86 to 1.07 during the 1999-2010 hurricane season. Also, the forecast track density distribution and false alarm statistics are compiled using the hindcast analyses. In real-time applications of the intraseasonal TS activity forecasts, the climatological TS forecast statistics will be used to make the model bias corrections in terms of the storm counts, track distribution and removal of false alarms. An operational implementation of the weekly TS activity prediction is planned for early 2014 to provide an objective input for the CPC's Global Tropical Hazards

Hybrid vs Adaptive Ensemble Kalman Filtering for Storm Surge Forecasting

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Altaf, M. U.; Raboudi, N.; Gharamti, M. E.; Dawson, C.; McCabe, M. F.; Hoteit, I.

2014-12-01

Recent storm surge events due to Hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico have motivated the efforts to accurately forecast water levels. Toward this goal, a parallel architecture has been implemented based on a high resolution storm surge model, ADCIRC. However the accuracy of the model notably depends on the quality and the recentness of the input data (mainly winds and bathymetry), model parameters (e.g. wind and bottom drag coefficients), and the resolution of the model grid. Given all these uncertainties in the system, the challenge is to build an efficient prediction system capable of providing accurate forecasts enough ahead of time for the authorities to evacuate the areas at risk. We have developed an ensemble-based data assimilation system to frequently assimilate available data into the ADCIRC model in order to improve the accuracy of the model. In this contribution we study and analyze the performances of different ensemble Kalman filter methodologies for efficient short-range storm surge forecasting, the aim being to produce the most accurate forecasts at the lowest possible computing time. Using Hurricane Ike meteorological data to force the ADCIRC model over a domain including the Gulf of Mexico coastline, we implement and compare the forecasts of the standard EnKF, the hybrid EnKF and an adaptive EnKF. The last two schemes have been introduced as efficient tools for enhancing the behavior of the EnKF when implemented with small ensembles by exploiting information from a static background covariance matrix. Covariance inflation and localization are implemented in all these filters. Our results suggest that both the hybrid and the adaptive approach provide significantly better forecasts than those resulting from the standard EnKF, even when implemented with much smaller ensembles.

Impacts of sand and dust storms on agriculture and potential agricultural applications of a SDSWS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stefanski, R; Sivakumar, M V K

2009-01-01

This paper will give an overview of the various impacts of sand and dust storms on agriculture and then address the potential applications of a Sand and Dust Storm Warning System (SDSWS) for agricultural users. Sand and dust storms have many negative impacts on the agricultural sector including: reducing crop yields by burial of seedlings under sand deposits, the loss of plant tissue and reduced photosynthetic activity as a result of sandblasting, delaying plant development, increasing end-of-season drought risk, causing injury and reduced productivity of livestock, increasing soil erosion and accelerating the process of land degradation and desertification, filling up irrigation canals with sediments, covering transportation routes, affecting water quality of rivers and streams, and affecting air quality. One positive impact is the fertilization of soil minerals to terrestrial ecosystems. There are several potential agricultural applications of a SDSWS. The first is to alert agricultural communities farmers to take preventive action in the near-term such as harvesting maturing crops (vegetables, grain), sheltering livestock, and strengthening infrastructure (houses, roads, grain storage) for the storm. Also, the products of a SDSWS could be used in for monitoring potential locust movement and post-storm crop damage assessments. An archive of SDSWS products (movement, amount of sand and dust) could be used in researching plant and animal pathogen movement and the relationship of sand and dust storms to disease outbreaks and in developing improved soil erosion and land degradation models.

Improvement of Storm Forecasts Using Gridded Bayesian Linear Regression for Northeast United States

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Yang, J.; Astitha, M.; Schwartz, C. S.

2017-12-01

Bayesian linear regression (BLR) is a post-processing technique in which regression coefficients are derived and used to correct raw forecasts based on pairs of observation-model values. This study presents the development and application of a gridded Bayesian linear regression (GBLR) as a new post-processing technique to improve numerical weather prediction (NWP) of rain and wind storm forecasts over northeast United States. Ten controlled variables produced from ten ensemble members of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) real-time prediction system are used for a GBLR model. In the GBLR framework, leave-one-storm-out cross-validation is utilized to study the performances of the post-processing technique in a database composed of 92 storms. To estimate the regression coefficients of the GBLR, optimization procedures that minimize the systematic and random error of predicted atmospheric variables (wind speed, precipitation, etc.) are implemented for the modeled-observed pairs of training storms. The regression coefficients calculated for meteorological stations of the National Weather Service are interpolated back to the model domain. An analysis of forecast improvements based on error reductions during the storms will demonstrate the value of GBLR approach. This presentation will also illustrate how the variances are optimized for the training partition in GBLR and discuss the verification strategy for grid points where no observations are available. The new post-processing technique is successful in improving wind speed and precipitation storm forecasts using past event-based data and has the potential to be implemented in real-time.

Hydrogen escape from Mars enhanced by deep convection in dust storms

Science.gov (United States)

Heavens, Nicholas G.; Kleinböhl, Armin; Chaffin, Michael S.; Halekas, Jasper S.; Kass, David M.; Hayne, Paul O.; McCleese, Daniel J.; Piqueux, Sylvain; Shirley, James H.; Schofield, John T.

2018-02-01

Present-day water loss from Mars provides insight into Mars's past habitability1-3. Its main mechanism is thought to be Jeans escape of a steady hydrogen reservoir sourced from odd-oxygen reactions with near-surface water vapour2, 4,5. The observed escape rate, however, is strongly variable and correlates poorly with solar extreme-ultraviolet radiation flux6-8, which was predicted to modulate escape9. This variability has recently been attributed to hydrogen sourced from photolysed middle atmospheric water vapour10, whose vertical and seasonal distribution is only partly characterized and understood11-13. Here, we report multi-annual observational estimates of water content and dust and water transport to the middle atmosphere from Mars Climate Sounder data. We provide strong evidence that the transport of water vapour and ice to the middle atmosphere by deep convection in Martian dust storms can enhance hydrogen escape. Planet-encircling dust storms can raise the effective hygropause (where water content rapidly decreases to effectively zero) from 50 to 80 km above the areoid (the reference equipotential surface). Smaller dust storms contribute to an annual mode in water content at 40-50 km that may explain seasonal variability in escape. Our results imply that Martian atmospheric chemistry and evolution can be strongly affected by the meteorology of the lower and middle atmosphere of Mars.

Fennec dust forecast intercomparison over the Sahara in June 2011

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J.-P. Chaboureau

2016-06-01

Full Text Available In the framework of the Fennec international programme, a field campaign was conducted in June 2011 over the western Sahara. It led to the first observational data set ever obtained that documents the dynamics, thermodynamics and composition of the Saharan atmospheric boundary layer (SABL under the influence of the heat low. In support to the aircraft operation, four dust forecasts were run daily at low and high resolutions with convection-parameterizing and convection-permitting models, respectively. The unique airborne and ground-based data sets allowed the first ever intercomparison of dust forecasts over the western Sahara. At monthly scale, large aerosol optical depths (AODs were forecast over the Sahara, a feature observed by satellite retrievals but with different magnitudes. The AOD intensity was correctly predicted by the high-resolution models, while it was underestimated by the low-resolution models. This was partly because of the generation of strong near-surface wind associated with thunderstorm-related density currents that could only be reproduced by models representing convection explicitly. Such models yield emissions mainly in the afternoon that dominate the total emission over the western fringes of the Adrar des Iforas and the Aïr Mountains in the high-resolution forecasts. Over the western Sahara, where the harmattan contributes up to 80 % of dust emission, all the models were successful in forecasting the deep well-mixed SABL. Some of them, however, missed the large near-surface dust concentration generated by density currents and low-level winds. This feature, observed repeatedly by the airborne lidar, was partly forecast by one high-resolution model only.

Understanding Variability in Beach Slope to Improve Forecasts of Storm-induced Water Levels

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Doran, K. S.; Stockdon, H. F.; Long, J.

2014-12-01

The National Assessment of Hurricane-Induced Coastal Erosion Hazards combines measurements of beach morphology with storm hydrodynamics to produce forecasts of coastal change during storms for the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coastlines of the United States. Wave-induced water levels are estimated using modeled offshore wave height and period and measured beach slope (from dune toe to shoreline) through the empirical parameterization of Stockdon et al. (2006). Spatial and temporal variability in beach slope leads to corresponding variability in predicted wave setup and swash. Seasonal and storm-induced changes in beach slope can lead to differences on the order of a meter in wave runup elevation, making accurate specification of this parameter essential to skillful forecasts of coastal change. Spatial variation in beach slope is accounted for through alongshore averaging, but temporal variability in beach slope is not included in the final computation of the likelihood of coastal change. Additionally, input morphology may be years old and potentially very different than the conditions present during forecast storm. In order to improve our forecasts of hurricane-induced coastal erosion hazards, the temporal variability of beach slope must be included in the final uncertainty of modeled wave-induced water levels. Frequently collected field measurements of lidar-based beach morphology are examined for study sites in Duck, North Carolina, Treasure Island, Florida, Assateague Island, Virginia, and Dauphin Island, Alabama, with some records extending over a period of 15 years. Understanding the variability of slopes at these sites will help provide estimates of associated water level uncertainty which can then be applied to other areas where lidar observations are infrequent, and improve the overall skill of future forecasts of storm-induced coastal change. Stockdon, H. F., Holman, R. A., Howd, P. A., and Sallenger Jr, A. H. (2006). Empirical parameterization of setup

A Peek into a Cul-De-Sac and a Mews of Martian Dust Storm Activity: Western Hellas and Syria-Claritas Fossae During Mars Year 29

Science.gov (United States)

Heavens, N. G.

2016-12-01

Western Hellas Planitia (WHP) and the region encompassed by Syria Planum and Claritas Fossae are the main centers of textured dust storm activity in Mars's southern low to mid-latitudes. (Texture in this context refers to distinct fine structure at the cloud tops indicative of active lifting.) WHP is a well-known initiation zone for regional and global dust storm activity and often the end point of the Utopia "flushing storm" track. Syria-Claritas Fossae (SCF), too, can be a lifting center in global dust storm activity. Indeed, SCF and the area to its west was the region most denuded of dust by the Mars Year (MY) 25 global dust storm, perhaps suggesting that SCF contained the principal lifting center of the storm. Thus, if the Acidalia and Utopia storm tracks are Mars's dust storm alleys, through which dust storms pass quickly again and again; WHP might be a cul-de-sac and SCF something like a mews, where dust storm activity can enter more or less easily but may not as easily leave. In this presentation, I will focus on dust storm activity in these areas in a typical non-global dust storm year, MY 29. Synthesizing visible imagery by the Mars Color Imager (MARCI) on board Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) and Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) also on board MRO, I will consider the climatology, morphology, texture, and vertical structure of dust storm activity in these areas in order to infer their governing dynamics. This investigation has two aims: (1) to understand why these areas are centers of textured dust storm activity; and (2) to connect the characteristics of smaller-scale dust storm activity in these regions to the underlying dynamics in order to understand the role of WHP and SCF in the dynamics of global dust storms. This work is supported by NASA's Mars Data Analysis Program (NNX14AM32G).

Forecast errors in dust vertical distributions over Rome (Italy): Multiple particle size representation and cloud contributions

Science.gov (United States)

Kishcha, P.; Alpert, P.; Shtivelman, A.; Krichak, S. O.; Joseph, J. H.; Kallos, G.; Katsafados, P.; Spyrou, C.; Gobbi, G. P.; Barnaba, F.; Nickovic, S.; PéRez, C.; Baldasano, J. M.

2007-08-01

In this study, forecast errors in dust vertical distributions were analyzed. This was carried out by using quantitative comparisons between dust vertical profiles retrieved from lidar measurements over Rome, Italy, performed from 2001 to 2003, and those predicted by models. Three models were used: the four-particle-size Dust Regional Atmospheric Model (DREAM), the older one-particle-size version of the SKIRON model from the University of Athens (UOA), and the pre-2006 one-particle-size Tel Aviv University (TAU) model. SKIRON and DREAM are initialized on a daily basis using the dust concentration from the previous forecast cycle, while the TAU model initialization is based on the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer aerosol index (TOMS AI). The quantitative comparison shows that (1) the use of four-particle-size bins in the dust modeling instead of only one-particle-size bins improves dust forecasts; (2) cloud presence could contribute to noticeable dust forecast errors in SKIRON and DREAM; and (3) as far as the TAU model is concerned, its forecast errors were mainly caused by technical problems with TOMS measurements from the Earth Probe satellite. As a result, dust forecast errors in the TAU model could be significant even under cloudless conditions. The DREAM versus lidar quantitative comparisons at different altitudes show that the model predictions are more accurate in the middle part of dust layers than in the top and bottom parts of dust layers.

LMDzT-INCA dust forecast model developments and associated validation efforts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schulz, M; Cozic, A; Szopa, S

2009-01-01

The nudged atmosphere global climate model LMDzT-INCA is used to forecast global dust fields. Evaluation is undertaken in retrospective for the forecast results of the year 2006. For this purpose AERONET/Photons sites in Northern Africa and on the Arabian Peninsula are chosen where aerosol optical depth is dominated by dust. Despite its coarse resolution, the model captures 48% of the day to day dust variability near Dakar on the initial day of the forecast. On weekly and monthly scale the model captures respectively 62% and 68% of the variability. Correlation coefficients between daily AOD values observed and modelled at Dakar decrease from 0.69 for the initial forecast day to 0.59 and 0.41 respectively for two days ahead and five days ahead. If one requests that the model should be able to issue a warning for an exceedance of aerosol optical depth of 0.5 and issue no warning in the other cases, then the model was wrong in 29% of the cases for day 0, 32% for day 2 and 35% for day 5. A reanalysis run with archived ECMWF winds is only slightly better (r=0.71) but was in error in 25% of the cases. Both the improved simulation of the monthly versus daily variability and the deterioration of the forecast with time can be explained by model failure to simulate the exact timing of a dust event.

Evaluation of weather forecast systems for storm surge modeling in the Chesapeake Bay

Science.gov (United States)

Garzon, Juan L.; Ferreira, Celso M.; Padilla-Hernandez, Roberto

2018-01-01

Accurate forecast of sea-level heights in coastal areas depends, among other factors, upon a reliable coupling of a meteorological forecast system to a hydrodynamic and wave system. This study evaluates the predictive skills of the coupled circulation and wind-wave model system (ADCIRC+SWAN) for simulating storm tides in the Chesapeake Bay, forced by six different products: (1) Global Forecast System (GFS), (2) Climate Forecast System (CFS) version 2, (3) North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM), (4) Rapid Refresh (RAP), (5) European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and (6) the Atlantic hurricane database (HURDAT2). This evaluation is based on the hindcasting of four events: Irene (2011), Sandy (2012), Joaquin (2015), and Jonas (2016). By comparing the simulated water levels to observations at 13 monitoring stations, we have found that the ADCIR+SWAN System forced by the following: (1) the HURDAT2-based system exhibited the weakest statistical skills owing to a noteworthy overprediction of the simulated wind speed; (2) the ECMWF, RAP, and NAM products captured the moment of the peak and moderately its magnitude during all storms, with a correlation coefficient ranging between 0.98 and 0.77; (3) the CFS system exhibited the worst averaged root-mean-square difference (excepting HURDAT2); (4) the GFS system (the lowest horizontal resolution product tested) resulted in a clear underprediction of the maximum water elevation. Overall, the simulations forced by NAM and ECMWF systems induced the most accurate results best accuracy to support water level forecasting in the Chesapeake Bay during both tropical and extra-tropical storms.

Ten-year operational dust forecasting - Recent model development and future plans

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kallos, G; Spyrou, C; Astitha, M; Mitsakou, C; Solomos, S; Kushta, J; Pytharoulis, I; Katsafados, P; Mavromatidis, E; Papantoniou, N; Vlastou, G

2009-01-01

The Sahara desert is one of the major sources of mineral dust on Earth, producing up to 2x10 8 t yr- 1 . A combined effort has been devoted during the last ten years at the University of Athens (UOA) from the Atmospheric Modeling and Weather Forecasting Group (AM and WFG) to the development of an analysis and forecasting tool that will provide early warning of Saharan dust outbreaks. The developed tool is the SKIRON limited-area forecasting system, based on the Eta limited area modeling system with embedded algorithms describing the dust cycle. A new version of the model is currently available, with extra features like eight-size particle bins, radiative transfer corrections, new dust source identification and utilization of rocky soil characterization and incorporation of more accurate deposition schemes. The new version of SKIRON modeling system is coupled with the photochemical model CAMx in order to study processes like the shading effect of dust particles on photochemical processes and the production of second and third generation of aerosols. Moreover, another new development in the AM and WFG is based on the RAMS model, with the incorporation of processes like dust and sea-salt production, gas and aqueous phase chemistry and particle formation. In this study, the major characteristics of the developed (and under development) modeling systems are presented, as well as the spatiotemporal distribution of the transported dust amounts, the interaction with anthropogenically-produced particles and the potential implications on radiative transfer.

Ten-year operational dust forecasting - Recent model development and future plans

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kallos, G; Spyrou, C; Astitha, M; Mitsakou, C; Solomos, S; Kushta, J; Pytharoulis, I; Katsafados, P; Mavromatidis, E; Papantoniou, N; Vlastou, G [University of Athens, School of Physics, Atmospheric Modeling and Weather Forecasting Group - UOA/AM and WFG, University Campus, Bldg. PHYS-V, Athens 15784 (Greece)], E-mail: kallos@mg.uoa.gr

2009-03-01

The Sahara desert is one of the major sources of mineral dust on Earth, producing up to 2x10{sup 8} t yr-{sup 1}. A combined effort has been devoted during the last ten years at the University of Athens (UOA) from the Atmospheric Modeling and Weather Forecasting Group (AM and WFG) to the development of an analysis and forecasting tool that will provide early warning of Saharan dust outbreaks. The developed tool is the SKIRON limited-area forecasting system, based on the Eta limited area modeling system with embedded algorithms describing the dust cycle. A new version of the model is currently available, with extra features like eight-size particle bins, radiative transfer corrections, new dust source identification and utilization of rocky soil characterization and incorporation of more accurate deposition schemes. The new version of SKIRON modeling system is coupled with the photochemical model CAMx in order to study processes like the shading effect of dust particles on photochemical processes and the production of second and third generation of aerosols. Moreover, another new development in the AM and WFG is based on the RAMS model, with the incorporation of processes like dust and sea-salt production, gas and aqueous phase chemistry and particle formation. In this study, the major characteristics of the developed (and under development) modeling systems are presented, as well as the spatiotemporal distribution of the transported dust amounts, the interaction with anthropogenically-produced particles and the potential implications on radiative transfer.

An electrified dust storm over the Negev desert, Israel

Science.gov (United States)

Yair, Yoav; Katz, Shai; Yaniv, Roy; Ziv, Baruch; Price, Colin

2016-11-01

We report on atmospheric electrical measurements conducted at the Wise Observatory in Mitzpe-Ramon, Israel (30°35‧N, 34°45‧E) during a large dust storm that occurred over the Eastern Mediterranean region on 10-11 February 2015. The dust was transported from the Sahara, Egypt and the Sinai Peninsula ahead of an approaching Cyprus low. Satellite images show the dust plume covering the Negev desert and Southern Israel and moving north. The concentrations of PM10 particles measured by the air-quality monitoring network of the Israeli Ministry of the Environment in Beer-Sheba reached values > 450 μg m- 3 and the AOT from the AERONET station in Sde-Boker was 1.5 on February 10th. The gradual intensification of the event reached peak concentrations on February 11th of over 1200 μg m- 3 and an AOT of 1.8. Continuous measurements of the fair weather vertical electric field (Ez) and vertical current density (Jz) were conducted at the Wise Observatory with 1 minute temporal resolution. Meteorological data was also recorded at the site. As the dust was advected over the observatory, very large fluctuations in the electrical parameters were registered. From the onset of the dust storm, the Ez values changed between + 1000 and + 8000 V m- 1 while the current density fluctuated between - 10 pA m2 and + 20 pA m2, both on time-scales of a few minutes. These values are significant departures from the average fair-weather values measured at the site, which are ~- 200 V m- 1 and ~ 2 pA m2. The disturbed episodes lasted for several hours on February 10th and the 11th and coincided with local meteorological conditions related to the wind speed and direction, which carried large amounts of dust particles over our observation station. We interpret the rapid changes as caused by the transport of electrically charged dust, carrying an excess of negative charge at lower altitudes.

Study of characterizations of aerosols in a dust storm source region and its influence on Beijing by NAA and ICP-MS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Song Yan; Chai Zhifang; Xu Diandou; Feng Weiyue; Ouyang Hong; Mao Xueying

2005-01-01

Dust storms have caused many problems in the environment, health and climate. For decades, dust storms have occurred frequently in various regions of China. The dust aerosols not only affected the local atmosphere, but also contaminated the atmosphere of the circumjacent regions. Further, they could affect Korea, Japan and even USA via long-range transportation. Many researches related to Chinese dust storms have been reported, however, there are few reports on the chemical components and characters of dust aerosols at their sources. Data on chemical properties of dust storm in the dust source region can help people understand the characteristics of dust storms and their influence on local and other regions. Duolun county (42 degree 13' N, 116 degree 25' E) lies in the southeast of Inner Mongolia, China, in the south of Hunshandake sands (one of the four famous sands in China). Because it is located at windward of Beijing, the dust aerosols can affect Beijing quickly when dust storm occurs. Hence, the study of chemical compositions and elemental abundance patterns of atmospheric particulate matters at Duolun is imperative to understand its influence on Beijing's atmospheric quality. In this work, TSP and PM2.5 samples were collected in Beijing and Duolun, Inner Mongolia, China, in April and May of 2002. Monthly arithmetic averages of the mass concentrations indicated that the pollution of atmospheric particulate matter's (APM) in Duolun was very serious, especially in April. The chemical compositions of total 163 samples were analyzed by INAA and ICP-MS and their origins were identified through Enrichment Factor and Principal Component Analysis. The results showed that the main source of Duolun aerosols was soil dust, and coal combustion constituted the important anthropogenic contribution. The dust events in April and changes of local meteorological conditions were the main reasons for the differences of APM characteristics between April and May. The

Atmospheric Electricity Effects of Eastern Mediterranean Dust Storms

Science.gov (United States)

Katz, Shai; Yair, Yoav; Yaniv, Roy; Price, Colin

2016-04-01

We present atmospheric electrical measurements conducted at the Wise Observatory (WO) in Mizpe-Ramon (30035'N, 34045'E) and Mt. Hermon (30024'N, 35051'E), Israel, during two massive and unique dust storms that occurred over the Eastern Mediterranean region on February 10-11 and September 08-12, 2015. The first event transported Saharan dust from Egypt and the Sinai Peninsula in advance of a warm front of a Cyprus low pressure system. In the second event, dust particles were transported from the Syrian desert, which dominates the north-east border with Iraq, through flow associated with a shallow Persian trough system. In both events the concentrations of PM10 particles measured by the air-quality monitoring network of the Israeli Ministry of the Environment in Beer-Sheba reached values > 2200 μg m-3. Aerosol Optical Thickness (AOT) obtained from the AERONET station in Sde-Boker reached values up to 4.0. The gradual intensification of the first event reached peak values on the February 11th > 1200 μg m-3 and an AOT ~ 1.8, while the second dust storm commenced on September 8th with a sharp increase reaching peak values of 2225 μg m-3 and AOT of 4.0. Measurements of the fair weather vertical electric field (Ez) and of the vertical current density (Jz) were conducted continuously with a 1 minute temporal resolution. During the February event, very large fluctuations in the electrical parameters were measured at the WO. The Ez values changed between +1000 and +8000 V m-1 while the Jz fluctuated between -10 and +20 pA m-2 (this is an order of magnitude larger compared to the fair weather current density of ~2 pA m-2. In contrast, during the September event, Ez values registered at WO were between -430 and +10 V m-1 while the Jz fluctuated between -6 and +3 pA m2. For the September event the Hermon site showed Ez and Jz values fluctuating between -460 and +570 V m-1 and -14.5 and +18 pA m-2 respectively. The electric field and current variability, amplitude and the

A numerical storm surge forecast model with Kalman filter

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Yu Fujiang; Zhang Zhanhai; Lin Yihua

2001-01-01

Kalman filter data assimilation technique is incorporated into a standard two-dimensional linear storm surge model. Imperfect model equation and imperfect meteorological forcimg are accounted for by adding noise terms to the momentum equations. The deterministic model output is corrected by using the available tidal gauge station data. The stationary Kalman filter algorithm for the model domain is calculated by an iterative procedure using specified information on the inaccuracies in the momentum equations and specified error information for the observations. An application to a real storm surge that occurred in the summer of 1956 in the East China Sea is performed by means of this data assimilation technique. The result shows that Kalman filter is useful for storm surge forecast and hindcast.

Windblown Dust Deposition Forecasting and Spread of Contamination around Mine Tailings.

Science.gov (United States)

Stovern, Michael; Guzmán, Héctor; Rine, Kyle P; Felix, Omar; King, Matthew; Ela, Wendell P; Betterton, Eric A; Sáez, Avelino Eduardo

2016-02-01

Wind erosion, transport and deposition of windblown dust from anthropogenic sources, such as mine tailings impoundments, can have significant effects on the surrounding environment. The lack of vegetation and the vertical protrusion of the mine tailings above the neighboring terrain make the tailings susceptible to wind erosion. Modeling the erosion, transport and deposition of particulate matter from mine tailings is a challenge for many reasons, including heterogeneity of the soil surface, vegetative canopy coverage, dynamic meteorological conditions and topographic influences. In this work, a previously developed Deposition Forecasting Model (DFM) that is specifically designed to model the transport of particulate matter from mine tailings impoundments is verified using dust collection and topsoil measurements. The DFM is initialized using data from an operational Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The forecast deposition patterns are compared to dust collected by inverted-disc samplers and determined through gravimetric, chemical composition and lead isotopic analysis. The DFM is capable of predicting dust deposition patterns from the tailings impoundment to the surrounding area. The methodology and approach employed in this work can be generalized to other contaminated sites from which dust transport to the local environment can be assessed as a potential route for human exposure.

Dust storms over the Arabian Gulf: a possible indicator of climate changes consequences

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hamza, W.; Enan, M.R.; Al-Hassini, H.; Stuut, J.B.; de-Beer, D.

2011-01-01

Dust storm frequencies and strengths were monitored during 2009 at various locations along the coast of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), as representative sites of the Arabian Gulf marine environment. The results have been compared with a pre-2009 five-year data set. Mineralogical components of dust

Electrical Activity in Martian Dust Storms

Science.gov (United States)

Majid, W.; Arabshahi, S.; Kocz, J.

2016-12-01

Dust storms on Mars are predicted to be capable of producing electrostatic fields and discharges, even larger than those in dust storms on Earth. Such electrical activity poses serious risks to any Human exploration of the planet and the lack of sufficient data to characterize any such activity has been identified by NASA's MEPAG as a key human safety knowledge gap. There are three key elements in the characterization of Martian electrostatic discharges: dependence on Martian environmental conditions, frequency of occurrence, and the strength of the generated electric fields. We will describe a recently deployed detection engine using NASA's Deep Space Network (DSN) to carry out a long term monitoring campaign to search for and characterize the entire Mars hemisphere for powerful discharges during routine tracking of spacecraft at Mars on an entirely non-interfering basis. The resulting knowledge of Mars electrical activity would allow NASA to plan risk mitigation measures to ensure human safety during Mars exploration. In addition, these measurements will also allow us to place limits on presence of oxidants such as H2O2 that may be produced by such discharges, providing another measurement point for models describing Martian atmospheric chemistry and habitability. Because of the continuous Mars telecommunication needs of NASA's Mars-based assets, the DSN is the only instrument in the world that combines long term, high cadence, observing opportunities with large sensitive telescopes, making it a unique asset worldwide in searching for and characterizing electrostatic activity at Mars from the ground.

Data Assimilation within the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) Modeling Framework for Hurricane Storm Surge Forecasting

KAUST Repository

Butler, T.; Altaf, Muhammad; Dawson, C.; Hoteit, Ibrahim; Luo, X.; Mayo, T.

2012-01-01

levels, and wave heights—during these extreme events. This type of data, if available in real time, could be used in a data assimilation framework to improve hurricane storm surge forecasts. In this paper a data assimilation methodology for storm surge

Variability in the correlation between Asian dust storms and chlorophyll a concentration from the North to Equatorial Pacific.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sai-Chun Tan

Full Text Available A long-term record of Asian dust storms showed seven high-occurrence-frequency centers in China. The intrusion of Asian dust into the downwind seas, including the China seas, the Sea of Japan, the subarctic North Pacific, the North Pacific subtropical gyre, and the western and eastern Equatorial Pacific, has been shown to add nutrients to ocean ecosystems and enhance their biological activities. To explore the relationship between the transported dust from various sources to the six seas and oceanic biological activities with different nutrient conditions, the correlation between monthly chlorophyll a concentration in each sea and monthly dust storm occurrence frequencies reaching the sea during 1997-2007 was examined in this study. No correlations were observed between dust and chlorophyll a concentration in the 50 m China seas and the North Pacific subtropical gyre, the correlation coefficients were in the range 0.32-0.57. The correlation coefficients for the western and eastern Equatorial Pacific were relatively low (<0.36. These correlation coefficients were further interpreted in terms of the geographical distributions of dust sources, the transport pathways, the dust deposition, the nutrient conditions of oceans, and the probability of dust storms reaching the seas.

Legal immigrants: invasion of alien microbial communities during winter occurring desert dust storms.

Science.gov (United States)

Weil, Tobias; De Filippo, Carlotta; Albanese, Davide; Donati, Claudio; Pindo, Massimo; Pavarini, Lorenzo; Carotenuto, Federico; Pasqui, Massimiliano; Poto, Luisa; Gabrieli, Jacopo; Barbante, Carlo; Sattler, Birgit; Cavalieri, Duccio; Miglietta, Franco

2017-03-10

A critical aspect regarding the global dispersion of pathogenic microorganisms is associated with atmospheric movement of soil particles. Especially, desert dust storms can transport alien microorganisms over continental scales and can deposit them in sensitive sink habitats. In winter 2014, the largest ever recorded Saharan dust event in Italy was efficiently deposited on the Dolomite Alps and was sealed between dust-free snow. This provided us the unique opportunity to overcome difficulties in separating dust associated from "domestic" microbes and thus, to determine with high precision microorganisms transported exclusively by desert dust. Our metagenomic analysis revealed that sandstorms can move not only fractions but rather large parts of entire microbial communities far away from their area of origin and that this microbiota contains several of the most stress-resistant organisms on Earth, including highly destructive fungal and bacterial pathogens. In particular, we provide first evidence that winter-occurring dust depositions can favor a rapid microbial contamination of sensitive sink habitats after snowmelt. Airborne microbial depositions accompanying extreme meteorological events represent a realistic threat for ecosystem and public health. Therefore, monitoring the spread and persistence of storm-travelling alien microbes is a priority while considering future trajectories of climatic anomalies as well as anthropogenically driven changes in land use in the source regions.

AI techniques in geomagnetic storm forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Lundstedt, Henrik

This review deals with how geomagnetic storms can be predicted with the use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques. Today many different Al techniques have been developed, such as symbolic systems (expert and fuzzy systems) and connectionism systems (neural networks). Even integrations of AI techniques exist, so called Intelligent Hybrid Systems (IHS). These systems are capable of learning the mathematical functions underlying the operation of non-linear dynamic systems and also to explain the knowledge they have learned. Very few such powerful systems exist at present. Two such examples are the Magnetospheric Specification Forecast Model of Rice University and the Lund Space Weather Model of Lund University. Various attempts to predict geomagnetic storms on long to short-term are reviewed in this article. Predictions of a month to days ahead most often use solar data as input. The first SOHO data are now available. Due to the high temporal and spatial resolution new solar physics have been revealed. These SOHO data might lead to a breakthrough in these predictions. Predictions hours ahead and shorter rely on real-time solar wind data. WIND gives us real-time data for only part of the day. However, with the launch of the ACE spacecraft in 1997, real-time data during 24 hours will be available. That might lead to the second breakthrough for predictions of geomagnetic storms.

Developing Subdomain Allocation Algorithms Based on Spatial and Communicational Constraints to Accelerate Dust Storm Simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Gui, Zhipeng; Yu, Manzhu; Yang, Chaowei; Jiang, Yunfeng; Chen, Songqing; Xia, Jizhe; Huang, Qunying; Liu, Kai; Li, Zhenlong; Hassan, Mohammed Anowarul; Jin, Baoxuan

2016-01-01

Dust storm has serious disastrous impacts on environment, human health, and assets. The developments and applications of dust storm models have contributed significantly to better understand and predict the distribution, intensity and structure of dust storms. However, dust storm simulation is a data and computing intensive process. To improve the computing performance, high performance computing has been widely adopted by dividing the entire study area into multiple subdomains and allocating each subdomain on different computing nodes in a parallel fashion. Inappropriate allocation may introduce imbalanced task loads and unnecessary communications among computing nodes. Therefore, allocation is a key factor that may impact the efficiency of parallel process. An allocation algorithm is expected to consider the computing cost and communication cost for each computing node to minimize total execution time and reduce overall communication cost for the entire simulation. This research introduces three algorithms to optimize the allocation by considering the spatial and communicational constraints: 1) an Integer Linear Programming (ILP) based algorithm from combinational optimization perspective; 2) a K-Means and Kernighan-Lin combined heuristic algorithm (K&K) integrating geometric and coordinate-free methods by merging local and global partitioning; 3) an automatic seeded region growing based geometric and local partitioning algorithm (ASRG). The performance and effectiveness of the three algorithms are compared based on different factors. Further, we adopt the K&K algorithm as the demonstrated algorithm for the experiment of dust model simulation with the non-hydrostatic mesoscale model (NMM-dust) and compared the performance with the MPI default sequential allocation. The results demonstrate that K&K method significantly improves the simulation performance with better subdomain allocation. This method can also be adopted for other relevant atmospheric and numerical

Extreme Wind, Rain, Storm Surge, and Flooding: Why Hurricane Impacts are Difficult to Forecast?

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, S. S.

2017-12-01

The 2017 hurricane season is estimated as one of the costliest in the U.S. history. The damage and devastation caused by Hurricane Harvey in Houston, Irma in Florida, and Maria in Puerto Rico are distinctly different in nature. The complexity of hurricane impacts from extreme wind, rain, storm surge, and flooding presents a major challenge in hurricane forecasting. A detailed comparison of the storm impacts from Harvey, Irma, and Maria will be presented using observations and state-of-the-art new generation coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean hurricane forecast model. The author will also provide an overview on what we can expect in terms of advancement in science and technology that can help improve hurricane impact forecast in the near future.

Exploring Dust Impacts on Tropical Systems from the NASA HS-3 Field Campaign

Science.gov (United States)

Nowottnick, Ed; Colarco, Pete; da Silva, Arlindo; Barahona, Donifan; Hlavka, Dennis

2015-01-01

One of the overall scientific goals of the NASA Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS-3) field campaign is to better understand the role of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) in tropical storm development. During the 2012 HS-3 deployment, the Cloud Physics Lidar (CPL) observed dust within SAL air in close proximity to a developing Nadine (September 11, 2012). Throughout the mission, the NASA GEOS-5 modeling system supported HS-3 by providing 0.25 degrees resolution 5-day global forecasts of aerosols, which were used to support mission planning. The aerosol module was radiatively interactive within the GEOS-5 model, but aerosols were not directly coupled to cloud and precipitation processes. In this study we revisit the aerosol forecasts with an updated version of the GEOS-5 model. For the duration of Hurricane Nadine, we run multiday climate simulations leading up to each respective Global Hawk flight with and without aerosol direct interaction. For each set of simulations, we compare simulated dust mass fluxes to identify differences in SAL entrainment related to the interaction between dust aerosols and the atmosphere. We find that the direct effects of dust induce a low level anticyclonic circulation that temporarily shields Nadine from the intrusion of dry air, leading to a more intense storm.

High Proportions of Sub-micron Particulate Matter in Icelandic Dust Storms in 2015

Science.gov (United States)

Dagsson Waldhauserova, Pavla; Arnalds, Olafur; Olafsson, Haraldur; Magnusdottir, Agnes

2017-04-01

Iceland is extremely active dust region and desert areas of over 44,000 km2 acknowledge Iceland as the largest Arctic and European desert. Frequent dust events, up to 135 dust days annually, transport dust particles far distances towards the Arctic and Europe. Satellite MODIS pictures have revealed dust plumes exceeding 1,000 km. The annual dust deposition was calculated as 40.1 million tons yr-1. Two dust storms were measured in transverse horizontal profile about 90 km far from different dust sources in southwestern Iceland in the summer of 2015. Aerosol monitor DustTrak DRX 8533EP was used to measure PM mass concentrations corresponding to PM1, PM2.5, PM4, PM10 and the total PM15 at several places within the dust plume. Images from camera network operated by the Icelandic Road and Coastal Administration were used to estimate the visibility and spatial extent of measured dust events. A numerical simulation of surface winds was carried out with the numerical model HIRLAM with horizontal resolution of 5 km and used to calculate the total dust flux from the sources. The in situ measurements inside the dust plumes showed that aeolian dust can be very fine. The study highlights that suspended volcanic dust in Iceland causes air pollution with extremely high PM1 concentrations comparable to the polluted urban stations in Europe or Asia rather than reported dust event observations from around the world. The PM1/PM2.5 ratios are generally low during dust storms outside of Iceland, much lower than > 0.9 and PM1/PM10 ratios of 0.34-0.63 found in our study. It shows that Icelandic volcanic dust consists of higher proportion of submicron particles compared to crustal dust. The submicron particles are predicted to travel long distances. Moreover, such submicron particles pose considerable health risk because of high potential for entering the lungs. Icelandic volcanic glass has often fine pipe-vesicular structures known from asbestos and high content of heavy metals. Previous

Asian Dust Storm Outbreaks: A Satellite-Surface Perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Tsay, Si-Chee

2006-01-01

Airborne dusts from northern China contribute a significant part of the air quality problem and, to some extent, regional climatic impact in Asia during springtime. Asian dust typically originates in desert areas far from polluted urban regions. During the transport, dust layers can interact with anthropogenic sulfate and soot aerosols from heavily polluted urban areas. Added to the complex effects of clouds and natural marine aerosols, dust particles reaching the marine environment can have drastically different properties than those from the source. Thus, understanding the unique temporal and spatial variations of Asian dust is of special importance in regional-to-global climate issues (e.g., radiative forcing, hydrological cycle, and primary biological productivity in the mid-Pacific Ocean, etc.), as well as societal concerns (e.g., adverse health effects to humans). The Asian dust and air pollution aerosols can be detected by its colored appearance on current Earth observing satellites (e.g., MODIS, SeaWiFS, TOMS, etc.) and its evolution monitored by satellites and surface network (e.g. AERONET, SKY NET, MPLNET, etc.). Recently, many field campaigns (e.g., ACE-Asia-2001, TRACEP-2001, ADE-2002 & -2003, APEX-2001 & -2003, etc.) were designed and executed to study the compelling variability in spatial and temporal scale of both pollution-derived and naturally occurring aerosols, which often exist in high concentrations over eastern Asia and along the rim of the western Pacific. I will present an overview of the outbreak of Asian dust storms from space and surface observations and to address the climatic effects and societal impacts.

Predicting Typhoon Induced Storm Surges Using the Operational Ocean Forecast System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sung Hyup You

2010-01-01

Full Text Available This study was performed to compare storm surges simulated by the operational storm surges/tide forecast system (STORM : Storm surges/Tide Operational Model of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA with observations from 30 coastal tidal stations during nine typhoons that occurred between 2005 and 2007. The results (bias showed that for cases of overestimation (or underestimation, storm surges tended to be overestimated (as well as underestimated at all coastal stations. The maximum positive bias was approximately 6.92 cm for Typhoon Ewiniar (2006, while the maximum negative bias was approximately -12.06 cm for Typhoon Khanun (2005. The maximum and minimum root mean square errors (RMSEs were 14.61 and 6.78 cm, which occurred for Typhoons Khanun (2005 and Usagi (2007, respectively. For all nine typhoons, total averaged RMSE was approximately 10.2 cm. Large differences between modeled and observed storm surges occurred in two cases. In the first, a very weak typhoon, such as Typhoon Khanun (2005, caused low storm surges. In the other, exemplified by Typhoon Nari (2007, there were errors in the predicted typhoon strength used as input data for the storm surge model.

Assimilation of ZDR Columns for Improving the Spin-Up and Forecasts of Convective Storms

Science.gov (United States)

Carlin, J.; Gao, J.; Snyder, J.; Ryzhkov, A.

2017-12-01

A primary motivation for assimilating radar reflectivity data is the reduction of spin-up time for modeled convection. To accomplish this, cloud analysis techniques seek to induce and sustain convective updrafts in storm-scale models by inserting temperature and moisture increments and hydrometeor mixing ratios into the model analysis from simple relations with reflectivity. Polarimetric radar data provide additional insight into the microphysical and dynamic structure of convection. In particular, the radar meteorology community has known for decades that convective updrafts cause, and are typically co-located with, differential reflectivity (ZDR) columns - vertical protrusions of enhanced ZDR above the environmental 0˚C level. Despite these benefits, limited work has been done thus far to assimilate dual-polarization radar data into numerical weather prediction models. In this study, we explore the utility of assimilating ZDR columns to improve storm-scale model analyses and forecasts of convection. We modify the existing Advanced Regional Prediction System's (ARPS) cloud analysis routine to adjust model temperature and moisture state variables using detected ZDR columns as proxies for convective updrafts, and compare the resultant cycled analyses and forecasts with those from the original reflectivity-based cloud analysis formulation. Results indicate qualitative and quantitative improvements from assimilating ZDR columns, including more coherent analyzed updrafts, forecast updraft helicity swaths that better match radar-derived rotation tracks, more realistic forecast reflectivity fields, and larger equitable threat scores. These findings support the use of dual-polarization radar signatures to improve storm-scale model analyses and forecasts.

Improving Short-Range Ensemble Kalman Storm Surge Forecasting Using Robust Adaptive Inflation

KAUST Repository

Altaf, Muhammad

2013-08-01

This paper presents a robust ensemble filtering methodology for storm surge forecasting based on the singular evolutive interpolated Kalman (SEIK) filter, which has been implemented in the framework of the H∞ filter. By design, an H∞ filter is more robust than the common Kalman filter in the sense that the estimation error in the H∞ filter has, in general, a finite growth rate with respect to the uncertainties in assimilation. The computational hydrodynamical model used in this study is the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) model. The authors assimilate data obtained from Hurricanes Katrina and Ike as test cases. The results clearly show that the H∞-based SEIK filter provides more accurate short-range forecasts of storm surge compared to recently reported data assimilation results resulting from the standard SEIK filter.

Improving Short-Range Ensemble Kalman Storm Surge Forecasting Using Robust Adaptive Inflation

KAUST Repository

Altaf, Muhammad; Butler, T.; Luo, X.; Dawson, C.; Mayo, T.; Hoteit, Ibrahim

2013-01-01

This paper presents a robust ensemble filtering methodology for storm surge forecasting based on the singular evolutive interpolated Kalman (SEIK) filter, which has been implemented in the framework of the H∞ filter. By design, an H∞ filter is more robust than the common Kalman filter in the sense that the estimation error in the H∞ filter has, in general, a finite growth rate with respect to the uncertainties in assimilation. The computational hydrodynamical model used in this study is the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) model. The authors assimilate data obtained from Hurricanes Katrina and Ike as test cases. The results clearly show that the H∞-based SEIK filter provides more accurate short-range forecasts of storm surge compared to recently reported data assimilation results resulting from the standard SEIK filter.

Dust Storm over the Middle East: Retrieval Approach, Source Identification, and Trend Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Moridnejad, A.; Karimi, N.; Ariya, P. A.

2014-12-01

The Middle East region has been considered to be responsible for approximately 25% of the Earth's global emissions of dust particles. By developing Middle East Dust Index (MEDI) and applying to 70 dust storms characterized on MODIS images and occurred during the period between 2001 and 2012, we herein present a new high resolution mapping of major atmospheric dust source points participating in this region. To assist environmental managers and decision maker in taking proper and prioritized measures, we then categorize identified sources in terms of intensity based on extracted indices for Deep Blue algorithm and also utilize frequency of occurrence approach to find the sensitive sources. In next step, by implementing the spectral mixture analysis on the Landsat TM images (1984 and 2012), a novel desertification map will be presented. The aim is to understand how human perturbations and land-use change have influenced the dust storm points in the region. Preliminary results of this study indicate for the first time that c.a., 39 % of all detected source points are located in this newly anthropogenically desertified area. A large number of low frequency sources are located within or close to the newly desertified areas. These severely desertified regions require immediate concern at a global scale. During next 6 months, further research will be performed to confirm these preliminary results.

Factors controlling storm impacts on coastal barriers and beaches - A preliminary basis for near real-time forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Morton, R.A.

2002-01-01

Analysis of ground conditions and meteorological and oceanographic parameters for some of the most severe Atlantic and Gulf Coast storms in the U.S. reveals the primary factors affecting morphological storm responses of beaches and barrier islands. The principal controlling factors are storm characteristics, geographic position relative to storm path, timing of storm events, duration of wave exposure, wind stress, degree of flow confinement, antecedent topography and geologic framework, sediment textures, vegetative cover, and type and density of coastal development. A classification of commonly observed storm responses demonstrates the sequential interrelations among (1) land elevations, (2) water elevations in the ocean and adjacent lagoon (if present), and (3) stages of rising water during the storm. The predictable coastal responses, in relative order from high frequency beach erosion to low frequency barrier inundation, include: beach erosion, berm migration, dune erosion, washover terrace construction, perched fan deposition, sheetwash, washover channel incision, washout formation, and forced and unforced ebb flow. Near real-time forecasting of expected storm impacts is possible if the following information is available for the coast: a detailed morphological and topographic characterization, accurate storm-surge and wave-runup models, the real-time reporting of storm parameters, accurate forecasts of the storm position relative to a particular coastal segment, and a conceptual model of geological processes that encompasses observed morphological changes caused by extreme storms.

Implementation of dust emission and chemistry into the Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system and initial application to an Asian dust storm episode

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Wang

2012-11-01

Full Text Available The US Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ modeling system version 4.7 is further developed to enhance its capability in simulating the photochemical cycles in the presence of dust particles. The new model treatments implemented in CMAQ v4.7 in this work include two online dust emission schemes (i.e., the Zender and Westphal schemes, nine dust-related heterogeneous reactions, an updated aerosol inorganic thermodynamic module ISORROPIA II with an explicit treatment of crustal species, and the interface between ISORROPIA II and the new dust treatments. The resulting improved CMAQ (referred to as CMAQ-Dust, offline-coupled with the Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF, is applied to the April 2001 dust storm episode over the trans-Pacific domain to examine the impact of new model treatments and understand associated uncertainties. WRF/CMAQ-Dust produces reasonable spatial distribution of dust emissions and captures the dust outbreak events, with the total dust emissions of ~111 and 223 Tg when using the Zender scheme with an erodible fraction of 0.5 and 1.0, respectively. The model system can reproduce well observed meteorological and chemical concentrations, with significant improvements for suspended particulate matter (PM, PM with aerodynamic diameter of 10 μm, and aerosol optical depth than the default CMAQ v4.7. The sensitivity studies show that the inclusion of crustal species reduces the concentration of PM with aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 μm (PM_2.5 over polluted areas. The heterogeneous chemistry occurring on dust particles acts as a sink for some species (e.g., as a lower limit estimate, reducing O₃ by up to 3.8 ppb (~9% and SO₂ by up to 0.3 ppb (~27% and as a source for some others (e.g., increasing fine-mode SO₄²⁻ by up to 1.1 μg m⁻³ (~12% and PM_2.5 by up to 1.4 μg m⁻³ (~3% over the domain. The

New forecasting methods of the intensity and time development of geomagnetic and ionospheric storms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Akasofu, S.I.

1981-01-01

The main phase of a geomagnetic storm develops differently from one storm to another. A description is given of the solar wind quantity which controls directly the development of the main phase of geomagnetic storms. The parameters involved include the solar wind speed, the magnetic field intensity, and the polar angle of the solar wind magnetic field projected onto the dawn-dusk plane. A redefinition of geomagnetic storm and auroral activity is given. It is pointed out that geomagnetic disturbances are caused by the magnetic fields of electric currents which are generated by the solar wind-magnetosphere dynamo. Attention is given to approaches for forecasting the occurrence and intensity of geomagnetic storms and ionospheric disturbances

Large Salt Dust Storms Follow a 30-Year Rainfall Cycle in the Mar Chiquita Lake (Córdoba, Argentina.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Enrique H Bucher

Full Text Available Starting in 2006, a new source of intense salt dust storms developed in Mar Chiquita (Córdoba, Argentina, the largest saline lake in South America. Storms originate from vast mudflats left by a 30-year expansion-retreat cycle of the lake due to changes in the regional rainfall regime. The annual frequency of salt dust storms correlated with the size of the salt mudflats. Events were restricted to the coldest months, and reached up to 800 km from the source. Occurrence of dust storms was associated with specific surface colors and textures easily identifiable in satellite images. High-emission surfaces were characterized by the presence of sodium sulfate hydrous/anhydrous crystals (mirabilite and thenardite, and a superficial and variable water table, which may result in the periodic development of a characteristic "fluffy" surface derived from salt precipitation-dissolution processes. HYSPLIT model simulation estimates a deposition maximum near the sources (of about 2.5 kg/ha/yr, and a decreasing trend from the emission area outwards, except for the relative secondary maximum modeled over the mountain ranges in southern Bolivia and northern Argentina due to an orographic effect. The 2009 total deposition of salt dust generated in Mar Chiquita was estimated at 6.5 million tons.

Detection and monitoring of two dust storm events by multispectral modis images.

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Mehta P.S.; Kunte, P.D.

of Oman, over Arabian Sea to the coast of Pakistan. The dust storm lasted over the Arabian Sea till 30^th March. MODIS sensors on both Terra and Aqua Satellites captured images of both events. From the difference in emissive/transmissive nature...

Assessment of Vegetation Variation on Primarily Creation Zones of the Dust Storms Around the Euphrates Using Remote Sensing Images

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jamil Amanollahi

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Recently, period frequency and effect domain of the dust storms that enter Iran from Iraq have increased. In this study, in addition to detecting the creation zones of the dust storms, the effect of vegetation cover variation on their creation was investigated using remote sensing. Moderate resolution image Spectroradiometer (MODIS and Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM5 have been utilized to identify the primarily creation zones of the dust storms and to assess the vegetation cover variation, respectively. Vegetation cover variation was studied using Normalized Differences Vegetation Index (NDVI obtained from band 3 and band 4 of the Landsate satellite. The results showed that the surrounding area of the Euphrates in Syria, the desert in the vicinity of this river in Iraq, including the deserts of Alanbar Province, and the north deserts of Saudi Arabia are the primarily creation zones of the dust storms entering west and south west of Iran. The results of NDVI showed that excluding the deserts in the border of Syria and Iraq, the area with very weak vegetation cover have increased between 2.44% and 20.65% from 1991 to 2009. In the meanwhile, the retention pound surface areas in the south deserts of Syria as well as the deserts in its border with Iraq have decreased 6320 and 4397 hectares, respectively. As it can be concluded from the findings, one of the main environmental parameters initiating these dust storms is the decrease in the vegetation cover in their primarily creation zones.

Airborne transport of Saharan dust to the Mediterranean and to the Atlantic

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pericleous, K.A.; Plainiotis, S. [Greenwich Univ., London (United Kingdom); Fisher, B.E.A. [Environment Agency, Reading (United Kingdom)

2006-07-01

A Lagrangian particle dispersion (LPD) model was used to predict the transport of sand particles and particulate matter (PM{sub 10}) exceedances attributed to Saharan storms in the Atlantic ocean near the United Kingdom, and in the Mediterranean Sea near Crete. Forward and reverse receptor modes were used to confirm the discovery of conflicting emission sources. Outputs were compared with satellite images and receptor data from multiple ground-based sites. Two models were used, notably the hybrid single particle Lagrangian integrated trajectory (HYSPLIT) model, and FLEXPART, an open source model. The emission model used to simulate dust emissions caused in a Sahara dust storm was based on the concept that threshold friction velocity was dependent on surface roughness. Case studies were presented for various Saharan dust episodes in the studied regions. Results of the study showed that the model accurately characterized sand entrainment in the atmosphere due to wind shear. It was concluded that coupled with advanced weather forecasting, the model can be used to predict the onset of desert dust storms well before their effects are felt. 15 refs., 6 figs.

Forecasting severe ice storms using numerical weather prediction: the March 2010 Newfoundland event

OpenAIRE

J. Hosek; P. Musilek; E. Lozowski; P. Pytlak

2011-01-01

The northeast coast of North America is frequently hit by severe ice storms. These freezing rain events can produce large ice accretions that damage structures, frequently power transmission and distribution infrastructure. For this reason, it is highly desirable to model and forecast such icing events, so that the consequent damages can be prevented or mitigated. The case study presented in this paper focuses on the March 2010 ice storm event that took place in eastern Newfoundland. We apply...

Simulation of Flash-Flood-Producing Storm Events in Saudi Arabia Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

KAUST Repository

Deng, Liping; McCabe, Matthew; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.; Evans, Jason P.; Kucera, Paul A.

2015-01-01

The challenges of monitoring and forecasting flash-flood-producing storm events in data-sparse and arid regions are explored using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model (version 3.5) in conjunction with a range of available satellite

Diagnostic evaluation of the Community Earth System Model in simulating mineral dust emission with insight into large-scale dust storm mobilization in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)

Science.gov (United States)

Parajuli, Sagar Prasad; Yang, Zong-Liang; Lawrence, David M.

2016-06-01

Large amounts of mineral dust are injected into the atmosphere during dust storms, which are common in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) where most of the global dust hotspots are located. In this work, we present simulations of dust emission using the Community Earth System Model Version 1.2.2 (CESM 1.2.2) and evaluate how well it captures the spatio-temporal characteristics of dust emission in the MENA region with a focus on large-scale dust storm mobilization. We explicitly focus our analysis on the model's two major input parameters that affect the vertical mass flux of dust-surface winds and the soil erodibility factor. We analyze dust emissions in simulations with both prognostic CESM winds and with CESM winds that are nudged towards ERA-Interim reanalysis values. Simulations with three existing erodibility maps and a new observation-based erodibility map are also conducted. We compare the simulated results with MODIS satellite data, MACC reanalysis data, AERONET station data, and CALIPSO 3-d aerosol profile data. The dust emission simulated by CESM, when driven by nudged reanalysis winds, compares reasonably well with observations on daily to monthly time scales despite CESM being a global General Circulation Model. However, considerable bias exists around known high dust source locations in northwest/northeast Africa and over the Arabian Peninsula where recurring large-scale dust storms are common. The new observation-based erodibility map, which can represent anthropogenic dust sources that are not directly represented by existing erodibility maps, shows improved performance in terms of the simulated dust optical depth (DOD) and aerosol optical depth (AOD) compared to existing erodibility maps although the performance of different erodibility maps varies by region.

Improving short-range ensemble Kalman storm surge forecasting using robust adaptive inflation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Altaf, M.U.; Butler, T.; Luo, X.; Dawson, C.; Mayo, T.; Hoteit, I.

2013-01-01

This paper presents a robust ensemble filtering methodology for storm surge forecasting based on the singular evolutive interpolated Kalman (SEIK) filter, which has been implemented in the framework of the H? filter. By design, an H? filter is more robust than the common Kalman filter in the sense

Dust Storms in North China in 2002: A Case Study of the Low Frequency Oscillation

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2007-01-01

The low frequency oscillation in both hemispheres and its possible role in the dust weather storm events over North China in 2002 are analyzed as a case study. Results show that the Aleutian Low is linked with the Circumpolar Vortex in the Southern Hemisphere on a 30-60-day oscillation, with a weak Circumpolar Vortex tending to deepen the Aleutian Low which may be helpful for the generation of dust storm events.The possible mechanism behind this is the inter-hemispheric interaction of the mean meridional circulation,with the major variability over East Asia. The zonal mean westerly wind at high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere in the upper level troposphere may lead that of the Northern Hemisphere, which then impacts the local circulation in the Northern Hemisphere. Thus, the low frequency oscillation teleconnection is one possible linkage in the coupling between the Southern Hemisphere circulation and dust events over North China. However, the interannual variation of the low frequency oscillation is unclear.

Chemical composition of PM10 and its in vitro toxicological impacts on lung cells during the Middle Eastern Dust (MED) storms in Ahvaz, Iran.

Science.gov (United States)

Naimabadi, Abolfazl; Ghadiri, Ata; Idani, Esmaeil; Babaei, Ali Akbar; Alavi, Nadali; Shirmardi, Mohammad; Khodadadi, Ali; Marzouni, Mohammad Bagherian; Ankali, Kambiz Ahmadi; Rouhizadeh, Ahmad; Goudarzi, Gholamreza

2016-04-01

Reports on the effects of PM10 from dust storm on lung cells are limited. The main purpose of this study was to investigate the chemical composition and in vitro toxicological impacts of PM10 suspensions, its water-soluble fraction, and the solvent-extractable organics extracted from Middle Eastern Dust storms on the human lung epithelial cell (A549). Samples of dust storms and normal days (PM10 0.05). These results led to the conclusions that dust storm PM10 as well as normal day PM10 could lead to cytotoxicity, and the organic compounds (PAHs) and the insoluble particle-core might be the main contributors to cytotoxicity. Our results showed that cytotoxicity and the risk of PM10 to human lung may be more severe during dust storm than normal days due to inhalation of a higher mass concentration of airborne particles. Further research on PM dangerous fractions and the most responsible components to make cytotoxicity in exposed cells is recommended. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Experimental Constraints On Transparency of The 1052;1040;rtian Atmosphere Out of Dust Storm

Science.gov (United States)

Korablev, O.; Moroz, V. I.; Rodin, A. V.

In the absence of a dust storm so-called permanent dust haze with = 0.2 in the atmo- sphere of Mars determines its thermal structure, as it has been shown by Gierasch and Goody [1972 JAS 29, 400] and is confirmed by modern Mars GCMs that include dust cycle. Dust loading varies substantially with the season and geographic location, and only the data of mapping instruments are adequate to characterize it. Presently, these are the data of thermal IR instruments, benefiting from being insensitive to condensa- tional clouds: TES/MGS and IRTM/Viking. In calm atmospheric conditions (aphelion season) a typical value of 9-µm optical depth 9 of 0.05-0.15 is observed by these instruments [Smith et al. 2000, 2001 JGR 105, 9539; JGR 106, 23929; Martin and Richardson 1993 JGR 98, 10941]. In order to quantify the typical optical depth of the permanent dust haze, we will discuss, among others, the following two questions: 1) How to agree the above values and reliable measurements from the surface (VL, Pathfinder) which give the typical optical depth (out of dust storms) of = 0.5 from one side, and some ground-based observations (in UV-visible range) that frequently reveal < 0.02 on the other side. 2) What is the relationship between 9 and the visi- ble optical depth? Comparison of IRTM and VL measurements (the only simultaneous observations available so far) suggest vis/9 = 2.5, that contradict to vis/9 = 0.9 that follow from IRIS/Mariner 9 mineralogy model, which is confirmed by recent re- analysis of IRIS data.

Environmentally dependent dust chemistry of a super Asian dust storm in March 2010: observation and simulation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Q. Wang

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Near-surface and vertical in situ measurements of atmospheric particles were conducted in Shanghai during 19–23 March 2010 to explore the transport and chemical evolution of dust particles in a super dust storm. An air quality model with optimized physical dust emission scheme and newly implemented dust chemistry was utilized to study the impact of dust chemistry on regional air quality. Two discontinuous dust periods were observed with one traveling over northern China (DS1 and the other passing over the coastal regions of eastern China (DS2. Stronger mixing extents between dust and anthropogenic emissions were found in DS2, reflected by the higher SO2 ∕ PM10 and NO2 ∕ PM10 ratios as well as typical pollution elemental species such as As, Cd, Pb, and Zn. As a result, the concentrations of SO42− and NO3− and the ratio of Ca2+ ∕ Ca were more elevated in DS2 than in DS1 but opposite for the [NH4+] ∕ [SO42−+NO3−] ratio, suggesting the heterogeneous reactions between calcites and acid gases were significantly promoted in DS2 due to the higher level of relative humidity and gaseous pollution precursors. Lidar observation showed a columnar effect on the vertical structure of particle optical properties in DS1 that dust dominantly accounted for ∼ 80–90 % of the total particle extinction from near the ground to ∼ 700 m. In contrast, the dust plumes in DS2 were restrained within lower altitudes while the extinction from spherical particles exhibited a maximum at a high altitude of ∼ 800 m. The model simulation reproduced relatively consistent results with observations that strong impacts of dust heterogeneous reactions on secondary aerosol formation occurred in areas where the anthropogenic emissions were intensive. Compared to the sulfate simulation, the nitrate formation on dust is suggested to be improved in the future modeling efforts.

Environmentally dependent dust chemistry of a super Asian dust storm in March 2010: observation and simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Qiongzhen; Dong, Xinyi; Fu, Joshua S.; Xu, Jian; Deng, Congrui; Jiang, Yilun; Fu, Qingyan; Lin, Yanfen; Huang, Kan; Zhuang, Guoshun

2018-03-01

Near-surface and vertical in situ measurements of atmospheric particles were conducted in Shanghai during 19-23 March 2010 to explore the transport and chemical evolution of dust particles in a super dust storm. An air quality model with optimized physical dust emission scheme and newly implemented dust chemistry was utilized to study the impact of dust chemistry on regional air quality. Two discontinuous dust periods were observed with one traveling over northern China (DS1) and the other passing over the coastal regions of eastern China (DS2). Stronger mixing extents between dust and anthropogenic emissions were found in DS2, reflected by the higher SO2 / PM10 and NO2 / PM10 ratios as well as typical pollution elemental species such as As, Cd, Pb, and Zn. As a result, the concentrations of SO42- and NO3- and the ratio of Ca2+ / Ca were more elevated in DS2 than in DS1 but opposite for the [NH4+] / [SO42-+NO3-] ratio, suggesting the heterogeneous reactions between calcites and acid gases were significantly promoted in DS2 due to the higher level of relative humidity and gaseous pollution precursors. Lidar observation showed a columnar effect on the vertical structure of particle optical properties in DS1 that dust dominantly accounted for ˜ 80-90 % of the total particle extinction from near the ground to ˜ 700 m. In contrast, the dust plumes in DS2 were restrained within lower altitudes while the extinction from spherical particles exhibited a maximum at a high altitude of ˜ 800 m. The model simulation reproduced relatively consistent results with observations that strong impacts of dust heterogeneous reactions on secondary aerosol formation occurred in areas where the anthropogenic emissions were intensive. Compared to the sulfate simulation, the nitrate formation on dust is suggested to be improved in the future modeling efforts.

Forecasting severe ice storms using numerical weather prediction: the March 2010 Newfoundland event

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Hosek

2011-02-01

Full Text Available The northeast coast of North America is frequently hit by severe ice storms. These freezing rain events can produce large ice accretions that damage structures, frequently power transmission and distribution infrastructure. For this reason, it is highly desirable to model and forecast such icing events, so that the consequent damages can be prevented or mitigated. The case study presented in this paper focuses on the March 2010 ice storm event that took place in eastern Newfoundland. We apply a combination of a numerical weather prediction model and an ice accretion algorithm to simulate a forecast of this event.

The main goals of this study are to compare the simulated meteorological variables to observations, and to assess the ability of the model to accurately predict the ice accretion load for different forecast horizons. The duration and timing of the freezing rain event that occurred between the night of 4 March and the morning of 6 March was simulated well in all model runs. The total precipitation amounts in the model, however, differed by up to a factor of two from the observations. The accuracy of the model air temperature strongly depended on the forecast horizon, but it was acceptable for all simulation runs. The simulated accretion loads were also compared to the design values for power delivery structures in the region. The results indicated that the simulated values exceeded design criteria in the areas of reported damage and power outages.

Characterization of synoptic patterns causing dust outbreaks that affect the Arabian Peninsula

Science.gov (United States)

Hermida, L.; Merino, A.; Sánchez, J. L.; Fernández-González, S.; García-Ortega, E.; López, L.

2018-01-01

Dust storms pose serious weather hazards in arid and semiarid regions of the earth. Understanding the main synoptic conditions that give rise to dust outbreaks is important for issuing forecasts and warnings to the public in cases of severe storms. The aim of the present study is to determine synoptic patterns that are associated with or even favor dust outbreaks over the Arabian Peninsula. In this respect, red-green-blue dust composite images from the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellite are used to detect dust outbreaks affecting the Arabian Peninsula, with possible influences in southwestern Asia and northeastern Africa, between 2005 and 2013. The Meteosat imagery yielded a sample of 95 dust storm days. Meteorological fields from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data of wind fields at 10 m and 250 hPa, mean sea level pressure, and geopotential heights at 850 and 500 hPa were obtained for the dust storm days. Using principal component analysis in T-mode and non-hierarchical k-means clustering, we obtained four major atmospheric circulation patterns associated with dust outbreaks during the study days. Cluster 4 had the largest number of days with dust events, which were constrained to summer, and cluster 3 had the fewest. In clusters 1, 2 and 3, the jet stream favored the entry of a low-pressure area or trough that varied in location between the three clusters. Their most northerly location was found in cluster 4, along with an extensive low-pressure area supporting strong winds over the Arabian Peninsula. The spatial distribution of aerosol optical depth for each cluster obtained was characterized using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data. Then, using METAR stations, clusters were also characterized in terms of frequency and visibility.

Toward an integrated storm surge application: ESA Storm Surge project

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Boram; Donlon, Craig; Arino, Olivier

2010-05-01

Storm surges and their associated coastal inundation are major coastal marine hazards, both in tropical and extra-tropical areas. As sea level rises due to climate change, the impact of storm surges and associated extreme flooding may increase in low-lying countries and harbour cities. Of the 33 world cities predicted to have at least 8 million people by 2015, at least 21 of them are coastal including 8 of the 10 largest. They are highly vulnerable to coastal hazards including storm surges. Coastal inundation forecasting and warning systems depend on the crosscutting cooperation of different scientific disciplines and user communities. An integrated approach to storm surge, wave, sea-level and flood forecasting offers an optimal strategy for building improved operational forecasts and warnings capability for coastal inundation. The Earth Observation (EO) information from satellites has demonstrated high potential to enhanced coastal hazard monitoring, analysis, and forecasting; the GOCE geoid data can help calculating accurate positions of tide gauge stations within the GLOSS network. ASAR images has demonstrated usefulness in analysing hydrological situation in coastal zones with timely manner, when hazardous events occur. Wind speed and direction, which is the key parameters for storm surge forecasting and hindcasting, can be derived by using scatterometer data. The current issue is, although great deal of useful EO information and application tools exist, that sufficient user information on EO data availability is missing and that easy access supported by user applications and documentation is highly required. Clear documentation on the user requirements in support of improved storm surge forecasting and risk assessment is also needed at the present. The paper primarily addresses the requirements for data, models/technologies, and operational skills, based on the results from the recent Scientific and Technical Symposium on Storm Surges (www

Estimation of radiative effect of a heavy dust storm over northwest China using Fu–Liou model and ground measurements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Wencai; Huang, Jianping; Zhou, Tian; Bi, Jianrong; Lin, Lei; Chen, Yonghang; Huang, Zhongwei; Su, Jing

2013-01-01

A heavy dust storm that occurred in Northwestern China during April 24–30 2010 was studied using observational data along with the Fu–Liou radiative transfer model. The dust storm was originated from Mongolia and affected more than 10 provinces of China. Our results showed that dust aerosols have a significant impact on the radiative energy budget. At Minqin (102.959°E, 38.607°N) and Semi-Arid Climate and Environment Observatory of Lanzhou University (SACOL, 104.13°E, 35.95°N) sites, the net radiative forcing (RF) ranged from 5.93 to 35.7 W m −2 at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), −6.3 to −30.94 W m −2 at surface, and 16.77 to 56.32 W m −2 in the atmosphere. The maximum net radiative heating rate reached 5.89 K at 1.5 km on 24 April at the Minqin station and 4.46 K at 2.2 km on 29 April at the SACOL station. Our results also indicated that the radiative effect of dust aerosols is affected by aerosol optical depth (AOD), single-scattering albedo (SSA) and surface albedo. Modifications of the radiative energy budget by dust aerosols may have important implications for atmospheric circulation and regional climate. -- Highlights: ► Dust aerosols' optical properties and radiative effects were investigated. ► We have surface observations on Minqin and SACOL where heavy dust storm occurred. ► Accurate input parameters for model were acquired from ground-based measurements. ► Aerosol's optical properties may have changed when transported

Correlation between Asian dust storms and worsening asthma in Western Japan.

Science.gov (United States)

Watanabe, Masanari; Yamasaki, Akira; Burioka, Naoto; Kurai, Jun; Yoneda, Kazuhiko; Yoshida, Atsushi; Igishi, Tadashi; Fukuoka, Yasushi; Nakamoto, Masaki; Takeuchi, Hiromi; Suyama, Hisashi; Tatsukawa, Toshiyuki; Chikumi, Hiroki; Matsumoto, Shingo; Sako, Takanori; Hasegawa, Yasuyuki; Okazaki, Ryota; Horasaki, Kazunori; Shimizu, Eiji

2011-09-01

Severe wind storms during spring in East Asia, called Asian dust storms (ADS), have been assessed in the past for their effect on health in Asian countries. Our objective was to study the ADS association with asthma symptoms in adult patients in Japan. We designed a telephone survey to assess ADS influence on upper and lower respiratory, ocular and cutaneous symptoms in 98 patients with adult asthma from April to May 2007. Peak expiratory flow (PEF) was also measured from February to May. Worsening lower respiratory symptoms were noted by 22 of 98 patients during ADS in April, when Japanese cedar pollen levels also increased. During ADS in May, however, Japanese cedar and cypress pollen levels were not elevated, 11 patients had worsening of lower respiratory symptoms. None required emergency treatment for the exacerbation. Lower respiratory symptoms worsening most were cough and sputum; this was more common in patients with allergic rhinitis or atopy than in those without (P storm. We found that ADS aggravated lower respiratory symptoms in adult patients with asthma, but this influence was mild.

The global dispersion of pathogenic microorganisms by dust storms and its relevance to agriculture: Chapter 1

Science.gov (United States)

Gonzalez-Martin, Cristina; Teigell-Perez, Nuria; Valladares, Basilio; Griffin, Dale W.

2014-01-01

Dust storms move an estimated 500–5000 Tg of soil through Earth’s atmosphere every year. Dust-storm transport of topsoils may have positive effects such as fertilization of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems and the evolution of soils in proximal and distal environments. Negative effects may include the stripping of nutrient-rich topsoils from source regions, sandblasting of plant life in downwind environments, the fertilization of harmful algal blooms, and the transport of toxins (e.g., metals, pesticides, herbicides, etc.) and pathogenic microorganisms. With respect to the long-range dispersion of microorganisms and more specifically pathogens, research is just beginning to demonstrate the quantity and diversity of organisms that can survive this type of transport. Most studies to date have utilized different assays to identify microorganisms and microbial communities using predominately culture-based, and more recently nonculture-based, methodologies. There is a clear need for international-scale research efforts that apply standardized methods to advance this field of science. Here we present a review of dust-borne microorganisms with a focus on their relevance to agronomy.

An Approach to Remove the Systematic Bias from the Storm Surge forecasts in the Venice Lagoon

Science.gov (United States)

Canestrelli, A.

2017-12-01

In this work a novel approach is proposed for removing the systematic bias from the storm surge forecast computed by a two-dimensional shallow-water model. The model covers both the Adriatic and Mediterranean seas and provides the forecast at the entrance of the Venice Lagoon. The wind drag coefficient at the water-air interface is treated as a calibration parameter, with a different value for each range of wind velocities and wind directions. This sums up to a total of 16-64 parameters to be calibrated, depending on the chosen resolution. The best set of parameters is determined by means of an optimization procedure, which minimizes the RMS error between measured and modeled water level in Venice for the period 2011-2015. It is shown that a bias is present, for which the peaks of wind velocities provided by the weather forecast are largely underestimated, and that the calibration procedure removes this bias. When the calibrated model is used to reproduce events not included in the calibration dataset, the forecast error is strongly reduced, thus confirming the quality of our procedure. The proposed approach it is not site-specific and could be applied to different situations, such as storm surges caused by intense hurricanes.

Oxidant enhancement in martian dust devils and storms: implications for life and habitability.

Science.gov (United States)

Atreya, Sushil K; Wong, Ah-San; Renno, Nilton O; Farrell, William M; Delory, Gregory T; Sentman, Davis D; Cummer, Steven A; Marshall, John R; Rafkin, Scot C R; Catling, David C

2006-06-01

We investigate a new mechanism for producing oxidants, especially hydrogen peroxide (H2O2), on Mars. Large-scale electrostatic fields generated by charged sand and dust in the martian dust devils and storms, as well as during normal saltation, can induce chemical changes near and above the surface of Mars. The most dramatic effect is found in the production of H2O2 whose atmospheric abundance in the "vapor" phase can exceed 200 times that produced by photochemistry alone. With large electric fields, H2O2 abundance gets large enough for condensation to occur, followed by precipitation out of the atmosphere. Large quantities of H2O2 would then be adsorbed into the regolith, either as solid H2O2 "dust" or as re-evaporated vapor if the solid does not survive as it diffuses from its production region close to the surface. We suggest that this H2O2, or another superoxide processed from it in the surface, may be responsible for scavenging organic material from Mars. The presence of H2O2 in the surface could also accelerate the loss of methane from the atmosphere, thus requiring a larger source for maintaining a steady-state abundance of methane on Mars. The surface oxidants, together with storm electric fields and the harmful ultraviolet radiation that readily passes through the thin martian atmosphere, are likely to render the surface of Mars inhospitable to life as we know it.

Chemical composition of PM_1_0 and its in vitro toxicological impacts on lung cells during the Middle Eastern Dust (MED) storms in Ahvaz, Iran

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Naimabadi, Abolfazl; Ghadiri, Ata; Idani, Esmaeil; Babaei, Ali Akbar; Alavi, Nadali; Shirmardi, Mohammad; Khodadadi, Ali

2016-01-01

Reports on the effects of PM_1_0 from dust storm on lung cells are limited. The main purpose of this study was to investigate the chemical composition and in vitro toxicological impacts of PM_1_0 suspensions, its water-soluble fraction, and the solvent-extractable organics extracted from Middle Eastern Dust storms on the human lung epithelial cell (A549). Samples of dust storms and normal days (PM_1_0   0.05). These results led to the conclusions that dust storm PM_1_0 as well as normal day PM_1_0 could lead to cytotoxicity, and the organic compounds (PAH_s) and the insoluble particle-core might be the main contributors to cytotoxicity. Our results showed that cytotoxicity and the risk of PM_1_0 to human lung may be more severe during dust storm than normal days due to inhalation of a higher mass concentration of airborne particles. Further research on PM dangerous fractions and the most responsible components to make cytotoxicity in exposed cells is recommended. - Highlights: • Chemical compositions of PM_1_0 during normal and dust event days were obtained. • Heavy metal concentrations in dusty conditions were higher than normal days. • PM_1_0 caused a decrease in the cell viability and an increase in LDH in supernatant. • Water-soluble fraction had severe cytotoxicity than solvent extractable organics. • Higher mass concentrations of PM_1_0 may contribute to more severe cytotoxicity. - Inhalation of higher mass concentration of PM during the MED storms may contribute to more severe cytotoxicity than normal days.

The Implementation of NEMS GFS Aerosol Component (NGAC) Version 1.0 for Global Dust Forecasting at NOAA NCEP

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, Cheng-Hsuan; Da Silva, Arlindo M.; Wang, Jun; Moorthi, Shrinivas; Chin, Mian; Colarco, Peter; Tang, Youhua; Bhattacharjee, Partha S.; Chen, Shen-Po; Chuang, Hui-Ya;

Use of SEVIRI images and derived products in a WMO Sand and dust Storm Warning System

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

MartInez, M A; Ruiz, J; Cuevas, E [Agencia Estatal de MeteorologIa (AEMET) (Spain)], E-mail: mig@inm.es

2009-03-01

The Visible/IR images of SEVIRI (Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager), on board Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellites, are used to monitor dust events. Satellite-based detection of dust is a difficult problem due in part to the observing-system limitations. The main difficulty is that the dust can be confused with water/ice clouds. SEVIRI is not as optimal for the viewing of dust as SEAWIFS or MODIS, due to the fact that both of them count with additional short-wavelength channels. However, the SEVIRI 15-minute loop images can detect small dust plumes as well as subtle changes from one image to the next. A description of how the AEMET, former INM, is developing the environment to support MSG satellite imagery to the WMO/GEO Sand and Dust Storm Warning System (SDS WS) for Europe, Africa and Middle East Regional Centre will be briefly presented, together with some on-going operational developments to best monitor dust events.

Diagnosis of the Relationship between Dust Storms over the Sahara Desert and Dust Deposit or Coloured Rain in the South Balkans

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. G. Prezerakos

2010-01-01

Full Text Available The main objects of study in this paper are the synoptic scale atmospheric circulation systems associated with the rather frequent phenomenon of coloured rain and the very rare phenomenon of dust or sand deposits from a Saharan sandstorm triggered by a developing strong depression. Analysis of two such cases revealed that two days before the occurrence of the coloured rain or the dust deposits over Greece a sand storm appeared over the north-western Sahara desert. The flow in the entire troposphere is southerly/south-westerly with an upward vertical motion regime. If the atmospheric conditions over Greece favour rain then this rain contains a part of the dust cloud while the rest is drawn away downstream adopting a light yellow colour. In cases where the atmospheric circulation on the route of the dust cloud trajectories is not intensively anticyclonic dust deposits can occur on the surface long far from the region of the dust origin. Such was the case on 4th April, 1988, when significant synoptic-scale subsidence occurred over Italy and towards Greece. The upper air data, in the form of synoptic maps, illustrate in detail the synoptic-scale atmospheric circulations associated with the emission-transport-deposition and confirm the transportation of dust particles.

Long-range Transport of Asian Dust Storms: A Satellite/Surface Perspective on Societal and Scientific Influence

Science.gov (United States)

2007-01-01

Among the many components contributing to air pollution, airborne mineral dust plays an important role due to its biogeochemical impact on the ecosystem and its radiative forcing effect on the weather/climate system. As much as one-third to half of the global dust emissions, estimated about 800 Tg, are introduced annually into Earth's atmosphere from various deserts in China. Asian dust storm outbreaks are believed to have persisted for hundreds and thousands years over the vast territory of north and northwest China, but not until recent decades that many studies reveal the compelling evidence in recognizing the importance of these eolian dust particles for forming Chinese Loess Plateau and for biogeochemical cycling in the North Pacific Ocean to as far as in the Greenland ice-sheets through long-range transport. The Asian dust and air pollution aerosols can be detected by its colored appearance on current Earth observing satellites and its evolution monitored by satellite and surface network. In this paper, we will demonstrate the capability of a new satellite algorithm, called Deep Blue, to retrieve aerosol properties, particularly but not limited to, over bright-reflecting surfaces such as urban areas and deserts. Recently, many field campaigns were designed and executed to study the compelling variability in spatial and temporal scale of both pollution-derived and naturally occurring aerosols, which often exist in high concentrations over eastern Asia and along the rim of the western Pacific. We will provide an overview of the outbreak of Asian dust storms, near source/sink and their evolution along transport pathway, from space and surface observations. The climatic effects and societal impacts of the Asian dusts will be addressed in depth. (to be presented in the International Workshop on Semi-Arid Land Surface-

The implementation of NEMS GFS Aerosol Component (NGAC) Version 1.0 for global dust forecasting at NOAA/NCEP.

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, Cheng-Hsuan; da Silva, Arlindo; Wang, Jun; Moorthi, Shrinivas; Chin, Mian; Colarco, Peter; Tang, Youhua; Bhattacharjee, Partha S; Chen, Shen-Po; Chuang, Hui-Ya; Juang, Hann-Ming Henry; McQueen, Jeffery; Iredell, Mark

2016-01-01

The NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) implemented NEMS GFS Aerosol Component (NGAC) for global dust forecasting in collaboration with NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). NGAC Version 1.0 has been providing 5 day dust forecasts at 1°×1° resolution on a global scale, once per day at 00:00 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC), since September 2012. This is the first global system capable of interactive atmosphere aerosol forecasting at NCEP. The implementation of NGAC V1.0 reflects an effective and efficient transitioning of NASA research advances to NCEP operations, paving the way for NCEP to provide global aerosol products serving a wide range of stakeholders as well as to allow the effects of aerosols on weather forecasts and climate prediction to be considered.

Properties of a local dust storm on Mars' Atlantis Chaos by means of radiative transfer modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Oliva, Fabrizio; Altieri, Francesca; Geminale, Anna; Bellucci, Giancarlo; D'Aversa, Emiliano; Carrozzo, Giacomo; Sindoni, Giuseppe; Grassi, Davide

2017-04-01

In this study we present the analysis of the dust properties in a local storm imaged in the Atlantis Chaos region on Mars by the OMEGA spectrometer (Bibring et al., 2004) on March 2nd 2005 (ORB1441_5). By means of an inverse radiative transfer code we study the dust properties across the region and try to infer the connection be-tween the local storm dynamics and the orography. OMEGA is a visible and near-IR mapping spectrometer, operating in the spectral range 0.38-5.1 μm with three separate channels with different spectral resolution. The instrument's IFOV is 1.2 mrad. To analyze the storm properties we have used the inverse radiative transfer model MITRA (Oliva et al., 2016; Sindoni et al., 2013) to retrieve the effective radius reff, the optical depth at 880 nm τ880 and the top pressure tp of the dust layer. We used the Mars Climate Database (MCD, Forget et al., 1999) to obtain the atmospheric properties of the studied region to be used as input in our model. Moreover we used the optical constants from Wolff et al. (2009) to describe the dust composition. The properties from the surface have been obtained by ap-plying the SAS method (Geminale et al., 2015) to observations of the same region relatively clear from dust. All retrievals have been performed in the spectral range 500 ÷ 2500 nm. Here we describe the result from our analysis carried out on selected regions of the storm and characterized by a different optical depth of the dust. Aknowledgements: This study has been performed within the UPWARDS project and funded in the context of the European Union's Horizon 2020 Programme (H2020-Compet-08-2014), grant agreement UPWARDS-633127. References: Bibring, J-P. et al., 2004. OMEGA: Observatoire pour la Minéralogie, l'Eau, les Glaces et l'Activité. Mars Express: the scientific payload, Ed. by Andrew Wilson, scientific coordination: Agustin Chicarro. ESA SP-1240, Noordwijk, Netherlands: ESA Publications Division, ISBN 92-9092-556-6, 2004, p. 37 - 49. Forget

PM10 concentration levels at an urban and background site in Cyprus: the impact of urban sources and dust storms.

Science.gov (United States)

Achilleos, Souzana; Evans, John S; Yiallouros, Panayiotis K; Kleanthous, Savvas; Schwartz, Joel; Koutrakis, Petros

2014-12-01

Air quality in Cyprus is influenced by both local and transported pollution, including desert dust storms. We examined PM10 concentration data collected in Nicosia (urban representative) from April 1, 1993, through December 11, 2008, and in Ayia Marina (rural background representative) from January 1, 1999, through December 31, 2008. Measurements were conducted using a Tapered Element Oscillating Micro-balance (TEOM). PM10 concentrations, meteorological records, and satellite data were used to identify dust storm days. We investigated long-term trends using a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) after controlling for day of week, month, temperature, wind speed, and relative humidity. In Nicosia, annual PM10 concentrations ranged from 50.4 to 63.8 μg/m3 and exceeded the EU annual standard limit enacted in 2005 of 40 μg/m3 every year A large, statistically significant impact of urban sources (defined as the difference between urban and background levels) was seen in Nicosia over the period 2000-2008, and was highest during traffic hours, weekdays, cold months, and low wind conditions. Our estimate of the mean (standard error) contribution of urban sources to the daily ambient PM10 was 24.0 (0.4) μg/m3. The study of yearly trends showed that PM10 levels in Nicosia decreased from 59.4 μg/m3 in 1993 to 49.0 μg/m3 in 2008, probably in part as a result of traffic emission control policies in Cyprus. In Ayia Marina, annual concentrations ranged from 27.3 to 35.6 μg/m3, and no obvious time trends were observed. The levels measured at the Cyprus background site are comparable to background concentrations reported in other Eastern Mediterranean countries. Average daily PM10 concentrations during desert dust storms were around 100 μg/m3 since 2000 and much higher in earlier years. Despite the large impact ofdust storms and their increasing frequency over time, dust storms were responsible for a small fraction of the exceedances of the daily PM10 limit. Implications: This

Limited production of sulfate and nitrate on front-associated dust storm particles moving from desert to distant populated areas in northwestern China

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Feng; Zhang, Daizhou; Cao, Junji; Guo, Xiao; Xia, Yao; Zhang, Ting; Lu, Hui; Cheng, Yan

2017-12-01

Sulfate and nitrate compounds can greatly increase the hygroscopicity of mineral particles in the atmosphere and consequently alter the particles' physical and chemical properties. Their uptake on long-distance-transported Asian dust particles within mainland China has been reported to be substantial in previous studies, but the production was very inefficient in other studies. We compared these two salts in particles collected from a synoptic-scale, mid-latitude, cyclone-induced dust storm plume at the Tengger Desert (38.79° N, 105.38° E) and in particles collected in a postfrontal dust plume at an urban site in Xi'an (34.22° N, 108.87° E) when a front-associated dust storm from the Tengger Desert arrived there approximately 700 km downwind. The results showed that the sulfate concentration was not considerably different at the two sites, while the nitrate concentration was slightly larger at the urban site than that at the desert site. The estimated nitrate production rate was 4-5 ng µg-1 of mineral dust per day, which was much less than that in polluted urban air. The adiabatic process of the dust-loading air was suggested to be the reason for the absence of sulfate formation, and the uptake of background HNO3 was suggested to be the reason for the small nitrate production. According to our investigation of the published literature, the significant sulfate and nitrate in dust-storm-associated samples within the continental atmosphere reported in previous studies cannot be confirmed as actually produced on desert dust particles; the contribution from locally emitted and urban mineral particles or from soil-derived sulfate was likely substantial because the weather conditions in those studies indicated that the collection of the samples was started before dust arrival, or the air from which the samples were collected was a mixture of desert dust and locally emitted mineral particles. These results suggest that the production of nitrate and sulfate on dust

Limited production of sulfate and nitrate on front-associated dust storm particles moving from desert to distant populated areas in northwestern China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F. Wu

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Sulfate and nitrate compounds can greatly increase the hygroscopicity of mineral particles in the atmosphere and consequently alter the particles' physical and chemical properties. Their uptake on long-distance-transported Asian dust particles within mainland China has been reported to be substantial in previous studies, but the production was very inefficient in other studies. We compared these two salts in particles collected from a synoptic-scale, mid-latitude, cyclone-induced dust storm plume at the Tengger Desert (38.79° N, 105.38° E and in particles collected in a postfrontal dust plume at an urban site in Xi'an (34.22° N, 108.87° E when a front-associated dust storm from the Tengger Desert arrived there approximately 700 km downwind. The results showed that the sulfate concentration was not considerably different at the two sites, while the nitrate concentration was slightly larger at the urban site than that at the desert site. The estimated nitrate production rate was 4–5 ng µg−1 of mineral dust per day, which was much less than that in polluted urban air. The adiabatic process of the dust-loading air was suggested to be the reason for the absence of sulfate formation, and the uptake of background HNO3 was suggested to be the reason for the small nitrate production. According to our investigation of the published literature, the significant sulfate and nitrate in dust-storm-associated samples within the continental atmosphere reported in previous studies cannot be confirmed as actually produced on desert dust particles; the contribution from locally emitted and urban mineral particles or from soil-derived sulfate was likely substantial because the weather conditions in those studies indicated that the collection of the samples was started before dust arrival, or the air from which the samples were collected was a mixture of desert dust and locally emitted mineral particles. These results suggest that the

Dust, Climate, and Human Health

Science.gov (United States)

Maynard, Nancy G.

2003-01-01

Air pollution from both natural and anthropogenic causes is considered to be one of the most serious world-wide environment-related health problems, and is expected to become worse with changes in the global climate. Dust storms from the atmospheric transport of desert soil dust that has been lifted and carried by the winds - often over significant distances - have become an increasingly important emerging air quality issue for many populations. Recent studies have shown that the dust storms can cause significant health impacts from the dust itself as well as the accompanying pollutants, pesticides, metals, salt, plant debris, and other inorganic and organic materials, including viable microorganisms (bacteria, viruses and fungi). For example, thousands of tons of Asian desert sediments, some containing pesticides and herbicides from farming regions, are commonly transported into the Arctic during dust storm events. These chemicals have been identified in animal and human tissues among Arctic indigenous populations. Millions of tons of airborne desert dust are being tracked by satellite imagery, which clearly shows the magnitude as well as the temporal and spatial variability of dust storms across the "dust belt" regions of North Africa, the Middle East, and China. This paper summarizes the most recent findings on the effects of airborne desert dust on human health as well as potential climate influences on dust and health.

Effect of wind speed and relative humidity on atmospheric dust concentrations in semi-arid climates.

Science.gov (United States)

Csavina, Janae; Field, Jason; Félix, Omar; Corral-Avitia, Alba Y; Sáez, A Eduardo; Betterton, Eric A

2014-07-15

Atmospheric particulate have deleterious impacts on human health. Predicting dust and aerosol emission and transport would be helpful to reduce harmful impacts but, despite numerous studies, prediction of dust events and contaminant transport in dust remains challenging. In this work, we show that relative humidity and wind speed are both determinants in atmospheric dust concentration. Observations of atmospheric dust concentrations in Green Valley, AZ, USA, and Juárez, Chihuahua, México, show that PM10 concentrations are not directly correlated with wind speed or relative humidity separately. However, selecting the data for high wind speeds (>4m/s at 10 m elevation), a definite trend is observed between dust concentration and relative humidity: dust concentration increases with relative humidity, reaching a maximum around 25% and it subsequently decreases with relative humidity. Models for dust storm forecasting may be improved by utilizing atmospheric humidity and wind speed as main drivers for dust generation and transport. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Storm Prediction Center Forecast Products

Science.gov (United States)

select the go button to submit request Local forecast by "City, St" or "ZIP" City, St Archive NOAA Weather Radio Research Non-op. Products Forecast Tools Svr. Tstm. Events SPC Publications SPC services. Forecast Products Current Weather Watches This is the current graphic showing any severe

Impact of Middle Eastern dust storms on indoor and outdoor composition of bioaerosol

Science.gov (United States)

Soleimani, Zahra; Goudarzi, Gholamreza; Sorooshian, Armin; Marzouni, Mohammad Bagherian; Maleki, Heidar

2016-08-01

The presence of microbes in airborne aerosol particles, especially dust, is a major public health concern in desert regions. This study is the first of its kind to examine the effect of dust storms on indoor and outdoor microbial air quality at a hospital on the western side of Iran (city of Ahvaz), which is notorious for being highly vulnerable to dust emissions. Air samples were collected inside and outside of the hospital environment for six months, with the unique advantage of this study being that the region and duration of measurements allow for a clear comparison between dusty and normal days. On normal days, the average concentrations (outdoor/indoor) of bacteria and fungi were 423/329 cfu m-3 and 596/386 cfu m-3, respectively, which increased to 1257/406 cfu m-3 and 1116/550 cfu m-3 on dust event days. Indoor/Outdoor ratios for bacteria and fungi are lower on dust event days (0.26-0.60) versus normal days (0.44-0.95). Bacillus spp., Micrococcus spp., Streptomyces spp., and Staphylococcus spp. were the dominant bacteria both indoors and outdoors on normal and dust event days. Gram positive bacteria exhibited higher concentrations than Gram negative bacteria in both outdoor and indoor air samples as well as during both normal and dust event days. The data suggest that Gram positive bacteria are more resistant to undesirable outdoor conditions (e.g., high incident solar radiation) as compared to Gram negative ones. These results have implications for other populated arid regions where more stringent control of indoor air quality can greatly benefit public health.

Spatial and temporal distributions of Martian north polar cold spots before, during, and after the global dust storm of 2001

Science.gov (United States)

Cornwall, C.; Titus, T.N.

2009-01-01

In the 1970s, Mariner and Viking observed features in the Mars northern polar region that were a few hundred kilometers in diameter with 20 fj,m brightness temperatures as low as 130 K (considerably below C02 ice sublimation temperatures). Over the past decade, studies have shown that these areas (commonly called "cold spots") are usually due to emissivity effects of frost deposits and occasionally to active C02 snowstorms. Three Mars years of Mars Global Surveyor Thermal Emission Spectrometer data were used to observe autumn and wintertime cold spot activity within the polar regions. Many cold spots formed on or near scarps of the perennial cap, probably induced by adiabatic cooling due to orographic lifting. These topographically associated cold spots were often smaller than those that were not associated with topography. We determined that initial grain sizes within the cold spots were on the order of a few millimeters, assuming the snow was uncontaminated by dust or water ice. On average, the half-life of the cold spots was 5 Julian days. The Mars global dust storm in 2001 significantly affected cold spot activity in the north polar region. Though overall perennial cap cold spot activity seemed unaffected, the distribution of cold spots did change by a decrease in the number of topographically associated cold spots and an increase in those not associated with topography. We propose that the global dust storm affected the processes that form cold spots and discuss how the global dust storm may have affected these processes. ?? 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Satellite Monitoring of Vegetation Response to Precipitation and Dust Storm Outbreaks in Gobi Desert Regions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuki Sofue

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Recently, droughts have become widespread in the Northern Hemisphere, including in Mongolia. The ground surface condition, particularly vegetation coverage, affects the occurrence of dust storms. The main sources of dust storms in the Asian region are the Taklimakan and Mongolian Gobi desert regions. In these regions, precipitation is one of the most important factors for growth of plants especially in arid and semi-arid land. The purpose of this study is to clarify the relationship between precipitation and vegetation cover dynamics over 29 years in the Gobi region. We compared the patterns between precipitation and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI for a period of 29 years. The precipitation and vegetation datasets were examined to investigate the trends during 1985–2013. Cross correlation analysis between the precipitation and the NDVI anomalies was performed. Data analysis showed that the variations of NDVI anomalies in the east region correspond well with the precipitation anomalies during this period. However, in the southwest region of the Gobi region, the NDVI had decreased regardless of the precipitation amount, especially since 2010. This result showed that vegetation in this region was more degraded than in the other areas.

Importance of dust storms in the diagenesis of sandstones: a case study, Entrada sandstone in the Ghost Ranch area, New Mexico, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Orhan, Hükmü

1992-04-01

The importance of dust storms on geological processes has only been studied recently. Case-hardening, desert-varnish formation, duricrust development, reddening and cementation of sediments and caliche formation, are some important geological processes related to dust storms. Dust storms can also be a major source for cements in aeolian sandstones. The Jurassic aeolian Entrada Formation in the Ghost Ranch area is composed of quartz with minor amounts of feldspar and rock fragments, and is cemented with smectite as grain coatings and calcite and kaolinite as pore fillings. Smectite shows a crinkly and honeycomb-like morphology which points to an authigenic origin. The absence of smectite as framework grains and the presence of partially dissolved grains, coated with smectite and smectite egg-shells, indicate an external source. Clay and fine silt-size particles are believed to be the major source for cements, smectite and calcite in the Entrada Formation. The common association of kaolinite with altered feldspar, and the absence of kaolinite in spots heavily cemented with calcite, lead to the conclusions that the kaolinite formation postdates carbonates and that framework feldspar grains were the source of kaolinite.

Effect of ecological restoration programs on dust concentrations in the North China Plain: a case study

Science.gov (United States)

Long, Xin; Tie, Xuexi; Li, Guohui; Cao, Junji; Feng, Tian; Zhao, Shuyu; Xing, Li; An, Zhisheng

2018-05-01

In recent decades, the Chinese government has made a great effort in initiating large-scale ecological restoration programs (ERPs) to reduce the dust concentrations in China, especially for dust storm episodes. Using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land cover product, the ERP-induced land cover changes are quantitatively evaluated in this study. Two obvious vegetation protective barriers arise throughout China from the southwest to the northeast, which are well known as the Green Great Wall (GGW). Both the grass GGW and forest GGW are located between the dust source region (DSR) and the densely populated North China Plain (NCP). To assess the effect of ERPs on dust concentrations, a regional transport/dust model (WRF-DUST, Weather Research and Forecast model with dust) is applied to investigate the evolution of dust plumes during a strong dust storm episode from 2 to 8 March 2016. The WRF-DUST model generally performs reasonably well in reproducing the temporal variations and spatial distributions of near-surface [PMC] (mass concentration of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter between 2.5 and 10 µm) during the dust storm event. Sensitivity experiments have indicated that the ERP-induced GGWs help to reduce the dust concentration in the NCP, especially in BTH (Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei). When the dust storm is transported from the upwind DSR to the downwind NCP, the [PMC] reduction ranges from -5 to -15 % in the NCP, with a maximum reduction of -12.4 % (-19.2 µg m-3) in BTH and -7.6 % (-10.1 µg m-3) in the NCP. We find the dust plumes move up to the upper atmosphere and are transported from the upwind DSR to the downwind NCP, accompanied by dust decrease. During the episode, the forest GGW is nonsignificant in dust concentration control because it is of benefit for dry deposition and not for emission. Conversely, the grass GGW is beneficial in controlling dust erosion and is the dominant reason for [PMC] decrease in the NCP

Effect of ecological restoration programs on dust concentrations in the North China Plain: a case study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

X. Long

2018-05-01

Full Text Available In recent decades, the Chinese government has made a great effort in initiating large-scale ecological restoration programs (ERPs to reduce the dust concentrations in China, especially for dust storm episodes. Using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS land cover product, the ERP-induced land cover changes are quantitatively evaluated in this study. Two obvious vegetation protective barriers arise throughout China from the southwest to the northeast, which are well known as the Green Great Wall (GGW. Both the grass GGW and forest GGW are located between the dust source region (DSR and the densely populated North China Plain (NCP. To assess the effect of ERPs on dust concentrations, a regional transport/dust model (WRF-DUST, Weather Research and Forecast model with dust is applied to investigate the evolution of dust plumes during a strong dust storm episode from 2 to 8 March 2016. The WRF-DUST model generally performs reasonably well in reproducing the temporal variations and spatial distributions of near-surface [PMC] (mass concentration of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter between 2.5 and 10 µm during the dust storm event. Sensitivity experiments have indicated that the ERP-induced GGWs help to reduce the dust concentration in the NCP, especially in BTH (Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei. When the dust storm is transported from the upwind DSR to the downwind NCP, the [PMC] reduction ranges from −5 to −15 % in the NCP, with a maximum reduction of −12.4 % (−19.2 µg m−3 in BTH and −7.6 % (−10.1 µg m−3 in the NCP. We find the dust plumes move up to the upper atmosphere and are transported from the upwind DSR to the downwind NCP, accompanied by dust decrease. During the episode, the forest GGW is nonsignificant in dust concentration control because it is of benefit for dry deposition and not for emission. Conversely, the grass GGW is beneficial in controlling dust erosion and is the

Short-Term Forecasting of Urban Storm Water Runoff in Real-Time using Extrapolated Radar Rainfall Data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Rasmussen, Michael R.

2013-01-01

Model based short-term forecasting of urban storm water runoff can be applied in realtime control of drainage systems in order to optimize system capacity during rain and minimize combined sewer overflows, improve wastewater treatment or activate alarms if local flooding is impending. A novel onl....... The radar rainfall extrapolation (nowcast) limits the lead time of the system to two hours. In this paper, the model set-up is tested on a small urban catchment for a period of 1.5 years. The 50 largest events are presented....... online system, which forecasts flows and water levels in real-time with inputs from extrapolated radar rainfall data, has been developed. The fully distributed urban drainage model includes auto-calibration using online in-sewer measurements which is seen to improve forecast skills significantly...

Remote-sensing-based analysis of landscape change in the desiccated seabed of the Aral Sea--a potential tool for assessing the hazard degree of dust and salt storms.

Science.gov (United States)

Löw, F; Navratil, P; Kotte, K; Schöler, H F; Bubenzer, O

2013-10-01

With the recession of the Aral Sea in Central Asia, once the world's fourth largest lake, a huge new saline desert emerged which is nowadays called the Aralkum. Saline soils in the Aralkum are a major source for dust and salt storms in the region. The aim of this study was to analyze the spatio-temporal land cover change dynamics in the Aralkum and discuss potential implications for the recent and future dust and salt storm activity in the region. MODIS satellite time series were classified from 2000-2008 and change of land cover was quantified. The Aral Sea desiccation accelerated between 2004 and 2008. The area of sandy surfaces and salt soils, which bear the greatest dust and salt storm generation potential increased by more than 36 %. In parts of the Aralkum desalinization of soils was found to take place within 4-8 years. The implication of the ongoing regression of the Aral Sea is that the expansion of saline surfaces will continue. Knowing the spatio-temporal dynamics of both the location and the surface characteristics of the source areas for dust and salt storms allows drawing conclusions about the potential hazard degree of the dust load. The remote-sensing-based land cover assessment presented in this study could be coupled with existing knowledge on the location of source areas for an early estimation of trends in shifting dust composition. Opportunities, limits, and requirements of satellite-based land cover classification and change detection in the Aralkum are discussed.

Modeling the Transport and Radiative Forcing of Taklimakan Dust over the Tibetan Plateau: A case study in the summer of 2006

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chen, Siyu; Huang, J.; Zhao, Chun; Qian, Yun; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Yang, Ben

2013-01-30

The Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry (WRF-Chem) is used to investigate an intense dust storm event during 26 to 30 July 2006 that originated over the Taklimakan Desert (TD) and transported to the northern slope of Tibetan Plateau (TP). The dust storm is initiated by the approach of a strong cold frontal system over the TD. In summer, the meridional transport of TD dust to the TP is favored by the thermal effect of the TP and the weakening of the East Asian westerly winds. During this dust storm, the transport of TD dust over the TP is further enhanced by the passage of the cold front. As a result, TD dust breaks through the planetary boundary layer and extends to the upper troposphere over the northern TP. TD dust flux arrived at the TP with a value of 6.6 Gg/day in this 5 day event but decays quickly during the southward migration over the TP due to dry deposition. The simulations show that TD dust cools the atmosphere near the surface and heats the atmosphere above with a maximum heating rate of 0.11 K day-1 at ~7 km over the TP. The event-averaged net radiative forcings of TD dust over the TP are -3.97, 1.61, and -5.58 Wm-2 at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), in the atmosphere, and at the surface, respectively. The promising performance of WRF-Chem in simulating dust and its radiative forcing provides confidence for use in further investigation of climatic impact of TD dust over the TP.

A Dynamic Enhancement With Background Reduction Algorithm: Overview and Application to Satellite-Based Dust Storm Detection

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Steven D.; Bankert, Richard L.; Solbrig, Jeremy E.; Forsythe, John M.; Noh, Yoo-Jeong; Grasso, Lewis D.

2017-12-01

This paper describes a Dynamic Enhancement Background Reduction Algorithm (DEBRA) applicable to multispectral satellite imaging radiometers. DEBRA uses ancillary information about the clear-sky background to reduce false detections of atmospheric parameters in complex scenes. Applied here to the detection of lofted dust, DEBRA enlists a surface emissivity database coupled with a climatological database of surface temperature to approximate the clear-sky equivalent signal for selected infrared-based multispectral dust detection tests. This background allows for suppression of false alarms caused by land surface features while retaining some ability to detect dust above those problematic surfaces. The algorithm is applicable to both day and nighttime observations and enables weighted combinations of dust detection tests. The results are provided quantitatively, as a detection confidence factor [0, 1], but are also readily visualized as enhanced imagery. Utilizing the DEBRA confidence factor as a scaling factor in false color red/green/blue imagery enables depiction of the targeted parameter in the context of the local meteorology and topography. In this way, the method holds utility to both automated clients and human analysts alike. Examples of DEBRA performance from notable dust storms and comparisons against other detection methods and independent observations are presented.

Problem of short-term forecasting of near-earth space state

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eselevich, V.G.; Ashmanets, V.I.; Startsev, S.A.

1996-01-01

The paper deals with actual and practically important problem of investigation and forecasting of state condition during magnetic storms. The available methods of forecasting of near-earth space state are analyzed. Forecasting of magnetic storms was conducted for control of space vehicles. Quasi-determinate method of magnetic storm forecasting is suggested. 13 refs., 3 figs

Assessment of storm forecast

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Huus Bjerge, Martin

When wind speed exceeds a certain value, wind turbines shut-down in order to protect their structure. This leads to sudden wind plants shut down and to new challenges concerning the secure operation of the pan-European electric system with future large scale offshore wind power. This task aims...... stopped, completely or partially, producing due to extreme wind speeds. Wind speed and power measurements from those events are presented and compared to the forecast available at Energinet.dk. The analysis looked at wind speed and wind power forecast. The main conclusion of the analysis is that the wind...... to consider it an EWP) and that the available wind speed forecasts are given as a mean wind speed over a rather large area. At wind power level, the analysis shows that prediction of accurate production levels from a wind farm experiencing EWP is rather poor. This is partially because the power curve...

Characterisation of bio-aerosols during dust storm period in N-NW India

Science.gov (United States)

Yadav, Sudesh; Chauhan, M. S.; Sharma, Anupam

Bio-investigations for pollen and spores were performed on dry free-fall dust and PM 10 aerosol samples, collected from three different locations separated by a distance of 600 km, situated in dust storm hit region of N-NW India. Presence of pollen of trees namely Prosopis ( Prosopis juliflora and Prosopis cinearia), Acacia, Syzygium, Pinus, Cedrus, Holoptelea and shrubs namely Ziziphus, Ricinus, Ephedra and members of Fabaceae, Oleaceae families was recorded but with varying proportions in the samples of different locations. Poaceae, Chenopodiaceae/Amaranthaceae, Caryophyllaceae, Brassicaceae and Cyperaceae (sedges) were some of the herb pollen identified in the samples. Among the fungal spores Nigrospora was seen in almost all samples. Nigrospora is a well known allergen and causes health problems. The concentration of trees and shrubs increases in the windward direction just as the climate changes from hot arid to semiarid. The higher frequency of grasses (Poaceae) or herbs could either be a result of the presence of these herbs in the sampling area and hence the higher production of pollen/spores or due to the resuspension from the exposed surface by the high-intensity winds. But we cannot ascertain the exact process at this stage. The overall similarity in the pollen and spore assemblage in our dust samples indicates a common connection or source(s) to the dust in this region. Presence of the pollen of the species of Himalayan origin in our entire samples strongly point towards a Himalayan connection, could be direct or indirect, to the bioaerosols and hence dust in N-NW India. In order to understand the transport path and processes involved therein, present study needs further extension with more number of samples and with reference to meteorological parameters.

A simplified Suomi NPP VIIRS dust detection algorithm

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Yikun; Sun, Lin; Zhu, Jinshan; Wei, Jing; Su, Qinghua; Sun, Wenxiao; Liu, Fangwei; Shu, Meiyan

2017-11-01

Due to the complex characteristics of dust and sparse ground-based monitoring stations, dust monitoring is facing severe challenges, especially in dust storm-prone areas. Aim at constructing a high-precision dust storm detection model, a pixel database, consisted of dusts over a variety of typical feature types such as cloud, vegetation, Gobi and ice/snow, was constructed, and their distributions of reflectance and Brightness Temperatures (BT) were analysed, based on which, a new Simplified Dust Detection Algorithm (SDDA) for the Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership Visible infrared Imaging Radiometer (NPP VIIRS) is proposed. NPP VIIRS images covering the northern China and Mongolian regions, where features serious dust storms, were selected to perform the dust detection experiments. The monitoring results were compared with the true colour composite images, and results showed that most of the dust areas can be accurately detected, except for fragmented thin dusts over bright surfaces. The dust ground-based measurements obtained from the Meteorological Information Comprehensive Analysis and Process System (MICAPS) and the Ozone Monitoring Instrument Aerosol Index (OMI AI) products were selected for comparison purposes. Results showed that the dust monitoring results agreed well in the spatial distribution with OMI AI dust products and the MICAPS ground-measured data with an average high accuracy of 83.10%. The SDDA is relatively robust and can realize automatic monitoring for dust storms.

Radiative Effects of Aerosols Generated from Biomass Burning, Dust Storms, and Forest Fires

Science.gov (United States)

Christopher Sundar A.; Vulcan, Donna V.; Welch, Ronald M.

1996-01-01

Atmospheric aerosol particles, both natural and anthropogenic, are important to the earth's radiative balance. They scatter the incoming solar radiation and modify the shortwave reflective properties of clouds by acting as Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN). Although it has been recognized that aerosols exert a net cooling influence on climate (Twomey et al. 1984), this effect has received much less attention than the radiative forcings due to clouds and greenhouse gases. The radiative forcing due to aerosols is comparable in magnitude to current anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing but opposite in sign (Houghton et al. 1990). Atmospheric aerosol particles generated from biomass burning, dust storms and forest fires are important regional climatic variables. A recent study by Penner et al. (1992) proposed that smoke particles from biomass burning may have a significant impact on the global radiation balance. They estimate that about 114 Tg of smoke is produced per year in the tropics through biomass burning. The direct and indirect effects of smoke aerosol due to biomass burning could add up globally to a cooling effect as large as 2 W/sq m. Ackerman and Chung (1992) used model calculations and the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) data to show that in comparison to clear days, the heavy dust loading over the Saudi Arabian peninsula can change the Top of the Atmosphere (TOA) clear sky shortwave and longwave radiant exitance by 40-90 W/sq m and 5-20 W/sq m, respectively. Large particle concentrations produced from these types of events often are found with optical thicknesses greater than one. These aerosol particles are transported across considerable distances from the source (Fraser et al. 1984). and they could perturb the radiative balance significantly. In this study, the regional radiative effects of aerosols produced from biomass burning, dust storms and forest fires are examined using the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Local Area

The role of dust storms in total atmospheric particle concentrations at two sites in the western U.S.

Science.gov (United States)

Neff, Jason C.; Reynolds, Richard L.; Munson, Seth M.; Fernandez, Daniel; Belnap, Jayne

2013-01-01

Mineral aerosols are produced during the erosion of soils by wind and are a common source of particles (dust) in arid and semiarid regions. The size of these particles varies widely from less than 2 µm to larger particles that can exceed 50 µm in diameter. In this study, we present two continuous records of total suspended particle (TSP) concentrations at sites in Mesa Verde and Canyonlands National Parks in Colorado and Utah, USA, respectively, and compare those values to measurements of fine and coarse particle concentrations made from nearby samplers. Average annual concentrations of TSP at Mesa Verde were 90 µg m−3 in 2011 and at Canyonlands were 171 µg m−3 in 2009, 113 µg m−3 in 2010, and 134 µg m−3 in 2011. In comparison, annual concentrations of fine (diameter of 2.5 µm and below) and coarse (2.5–10 µm diameter) particles at these sites were below 10 µg m−3 in all years. The high concentrations of TSP appear to be the result of regional dust storms with elevated concentrations of particles greater than 10 µm in diameter. These conditions regularly occur from spring through fall with 2 week mean TSP periodically in excess of 200 µg m−3. Measurement of particles on filters indicates that the median particle size varies between approximately 10 µm in winter and 40 µm during the spring. These persistently elevated concentrations of large particles indicate that regional dust emission as dust storms and events are important determinants of air quality in this region.

Impact of Two Intense Dust Storms on Aerosol Characteristics and Radiative Forcing over Patiala, Northwestern India

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Deepti Sharma

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Impact of dust storms on the aerosol characteristics and radiative forcing over Patiala, northwestern India has been studied during April-June of 2010 using satellite observations and ground-based measurements. Six dust events (DE have been identified during the study period with average values of Aqua-MODIS AOD550 and Microtops-II AOD500 over Patiala as 1.00±0.51 and 0.84±0.41, respectively while Aura-OMI AI exhibits high values ranging from 2.01 to 6.74. The Ångström coefficients α380–870 and β range from 0.12 to 0.31 and 0.95 to 1.40, respectively. The measured spectral AODs, the OPAC-derived aerosol properties and the surface albedo obtained from MODIS were used as main inputs in SBDART model for the calculation of aerosol radiative forcing (ARF over Patiala. The ARF at surface (SRF and top of atmosphere (TOA ranges from ∼−50 to −100 Wm−2 and from ∼−10 to −25 Wm−2, respectively during the maximum of dust storms. The radiative forcing efficiency was found to be −66 Wm−2AOD−1 at SRF and −14 Wm−2AOD−1 at TOA. High values of ARF in the atmosphere (ATM, ranging between ∼+40 Wm−2 and +80.0 Wm−2 during the DE days, might have significant effect on the warming of the lower and middle atmosphere and, hence, on climate over northwestern India.

Dust modeling over East Asia during the summer of 2010 using the WRF-Chem model

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, B.; Huang, J.; Chen, S.

2017-12-01

An intense summer dust storm over East Asia during June 24-27, 2010, was systematically analyzed using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) and a variety of in situ measurements and satellite retrievals. The results showed that the WRF-Chem model captured the spatial and temporal distributions of meteorological factors and dust aerosols over East Asia. This summer dust storm was initiated by the approach of a transverse trough in the northwestern Xinjiang. Because of the passage of the cutoff-low, a large amount of cold air was transported southward and further enhanced in the narrow valleys of the Altai and Tianshan Mountains, which resulted in higher wind speeds and huge dust emissions over the Taklimakan Desert (TD). Dust emission fluxes over the TD were as high as 54 μg m-2 s-1 on June 25th. The dust aerosols from the TD then swept across Inner Mongolia, Ningxia and Mongolia, and some were also transported eastward to Beijing, Tianjin, the Hebei region, and even South Korea and Japan. The simulations further showed that summer dust over East Asia exerts an important influence on the radiation budget in the Earth-atmosphere system. Dust heat the atmosphere at a maximum heating rate of 0.14 k day-1, effectively changing the vertical stability of the atmosphere and affecting climate change at regional and even global scales. The dust event-averaged direct radiative forcing induced by dust particles over the TD at all-sky was -6.0, -16.8 and 10.8 W m-2 at the top of the atmosphere, the surface, and in the atmosphere, respectively.

Maintaining the Background Dust Opacity During Northern Hemisphere Summer Mars Using Wind Stress Based Dust Lifting

Science.gov (United States)

Jha, V.; Kahre, M. A.

2017-12-01

The Mars atmosphere has low levels of dust during Northern Hemisphere (NH) spring and summer (the non-dusty season) and increased levels during NH autumn and winter (the dusty season). In the absence of regional or global storms, dust devils and local storms maintain a background minimum dust loading during the non-dusty season. While observational surveys and Global Climate Model (GCM) studies suggest that dust devils are likely to be major contributors to the background haze during NH spring and summer, a complete understanding of the relative contribution of dust devils and local dust storms has not yet been achieved. We present preliminary results from an investigation that focuses on the effects of radiatively active water ice clouds on dust lifting processes during these seasons. Water ice clouds are known to affect atmospheric temperatures directly by absorption and emission of thermal infrared radiation and indirectly through dynamical feedbacks. Our goal is to understand how clouds affect the contribution by local (wind stress) dust storms to the background dust haze during NH spring and summer. The primary tool for this work is the NASA Ames Mars GCM, which contains physical parameterizations for a fully interactive dust cycle. Three simulations that included wind stress dust lifting were executed for a period of 5 Martian years: a case that included no cloud formation, a case that included radiatively inert cloud formation and a case that included radiatively active cloud (RAC) formation. Results show that when radiatively active clouds are included, the clouds in the aphelion cloud belt radiatively heat the atmosphere aloft in the tropics (Figure 1). This heating produces a stronger overturning circulation, which in turn produces an enhanced low-level flow in the Hadley cell return branch. The stronger low-level flow drives higher surface stresses and increased dust lifting in those locations. We examine how realistic these simulated results are by

Artificial Neural Network forecasting of storm surge water levels at major estuarine ports to supplement national tide-surge models and improve port resilience planning

Science.gov (United States)

French, Jon; Mawdsley, Robert; Fujiyama, Taku; Achuthan, Kamal

2017-04-01

Effective prediction of tidal storm surge is of considerable importance for operators of major ports, since much of their infrastructure is necessarily located close to sea level. Storm surge inundation can damage critical elements of this infrastructure and significantly disrupt port operations and downstream supply chains. The risk of surge inundation is typically approached using extreme value analysis, while short-term forecasting generally relies on coastal shelf-scale tide and surge models. However, extreme value analysis does not provide information on the duration of a surge event and can be sensitive to the assumptions made and the historic data available. Also, whilst regional tide and surge models perform well along open coasts, their fairly coarse spatial resolution means that they do not always provide accurate predictions for estuarine ports. As part of a NERC Environmental Risks to Infrastructure Innovation Programme project, we have developed a tool that is specifically designed to forecast the North Sea storm surges on major ports along the east coast of the UK. Of particular interest is the Port of Immingham, Humber estuary, which handles the largest volume of bulk cargo in the UK including major flows of coal and biomass for power generation. A tidal surge in December 2013, with an estimated return period of 760 years, partly flooded the port, damaged infrastructure and disrupted operations for several weeks. This and other recent surge events highlight the need for additional tools to supplement the national UK Storm Tide Warning Service. Port operators are also keen to have access to less computationally expensive forecasting tools for scenario planning and to improve their resilience to actual events. In this paper, we demonstrate the potential of machine learning methods based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) to generate accurate short-term forecasts of extreme water levels at estuarine North Sea ports such as Immingham. An ANN is

Geomorphic and land cover identification of dust sources in the eastern Great Basin of Utah, U.S.A.

Science.gov (United States)

Hahnenberger, Maura; Nicoll, Kathleen

2014-01-01

Great Basin negatively impact air quality and transportation in the populated regions of Utah; this study details an improved forecasting protocol for dust storm events that will benefit transportation planning and improve public health.

Integration of RGB "Dust" Imagery to Operations at the Albuquerque Forecast Office

Science.gov (United States)

Fuell, Kevin; Guyer, Brian

2014-01-01

The NASA/Short-term Prediction, Research, and Transition (SPoRT) Program has been providing unique Red-Green-Blue (RGB) composite imagery to its operational partners since 2005. In the early years of activity these RGB products were related to a True Color RGB, showing what one's own eyes would see if looking down at earth from space, as well as a Snow-Cloud RGB (i.e. False Color), separating clouds from snow on the ground. More recently SPoRT has used the EUMETSAT Best Practices standards for RGB composites to transition a wide array of imagery for multiple uses. A "Dust" RGB product has had particular use at the Albuquerque, New Mexico WFO. Several cases have occurred where users were able to isolate dust plume locations for mesoscale and microscale events during day and night time conditions. In addition the "Dust" RGB can be used for more than just detection of dust as it is sensitive to the changes in density due to atmospheric moisture content. Hence low-level dry boundaries can often be discriminated. This type of imagery is a large change from the single channel imagery typically used by operational forecast staff and hence, can be a challenge to interpret. This presentation aims to discuss the integration of such new imagery into operational use as well as the benefits assessed by the Albuquerque WFO over several documented events.

Integration of RGB "Dust" Imagery to Operations at the Albuqueque Forecast Office

Science.gov (United States)

Fuell, Kevin; Guyer, Brian

2014-01-01

The NASA/Short-term Prediction, Research, and Transition (SPoRT) Program has been providing unique Red-Green-Blue (RGB) composite imagery to its operational partners since 2005. In the early years of activity these RGB products were related to a True Color RGB, showing what one's own eyes would see if looking down at earth from space, as well as a Snow-Cloud RGB (i.e. False Color), separating clouds from snow on the ground. More recently SPoRT has used the EUMETSAT Best Practices standards for RGB composites to transition a wide array of imagery for multiple uses. A "Dust" RGB product has had particular use at the Albuquerque, New Mexico WFO. Several cases have occurred where users were able to isolate dust plume locations for mesoscale and microscale events during day and night time conditions. In addition the "Dust" RGB can be used for more than just detection of dust as it is sensitive to the changes in density due to atmospheric moisture content. Hence low-level dry boundaries can often be discriminated. This type of imagery is a large change from the single channel imagery typically used by operational forecast staff and hence, can be a challenge to interpret. This presentation aims to discuss the integration of such new imagery into operational use as well as the benefits assessed by the Albuquerque WFO over several documented events.

Regional corrections and checking the reliability of geomagnetic forecasts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Afanas'eva, V.I.; Shevnin, A.D.

1978-01-01

Regional corrections of the K index mark estimate with respect to the Moskva observatory are reviewed in order to improve the short-range forecast of the geomagnetic activity and to promote it within the aqua area. The forecasts of the storms of all categories and weak perturbations have been verified for the predominant days in the catalogue of the magnetic storms family. It is shown that the adopted methods of forecasts yield considerably good results for weak perturbations as well as for weak and moderate magnetic storms. Strong and very strong storms are less predictable

Dust Propagation and Radiation In the Presence of a Low-level Jet in Central China on March 17, 2010

Science.gov (United States)

McDowell, B. K.; Chen, S. H.

2014-12-01

Suspended dust in the air can directly change the energy budget in the atmosphere and at the surface through scattering and absorption of radiation. Thus, dust can potentially modify the development of weather systems. To explore the dust-radiation effects on weather systems, a dust model was developed based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The calculations of dust processes in the WRF dust model include emission, advection, boundary layer mixing, cumulus mixing, dust-radiation interaction, wet scavenging, and sedimentation. Due to a high vertical spatial resolution near the surface a time splitting method was applied to the calculation of dust sedimentation to relax the numerical time step. The "Hexi Corridor" is the historical name given to a string of oases along the northern slope of the Tibetan Plateau that formed a relatively easy transportation route between eastern China and central Asia. As trade developed over the centuries, this route became known as the Silk Road. This corridor also marks the transition from the relatively flat Gobi desert area in northern China to the elevated mountains of the Tibetan Plateau. These mountains present a southern barrier to the paths of dust storms that develop during spring outbreaks of the Mongolian Cyclone. In March of 2010, a series of dust storms developed in the Gobi Desert north of the Hexi Corridor that transported massive amounts of dust eastward to central and northeastern China, Korea and Japan. On March 17 during this event, a low-level jet developed along the northern perimeter of the Plateau, in alignment with upper level winds and the Hexi Corridor. Over the course of the day, a well-defined short-duration dust plume was emitted in the southern Gobi desert area and was transported over 1300 km in a southeast direction, over the Loess Plateau and into the Gansu Province. In this study, the interactions of synoptic conditions with regional topography that led to the development of the low

L-band microwave remote sensing and land data assimilation improve the representation of pre-storm soil moisture conditions for hydrologic forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Recent advances in remote sensing and land data assimilation purport to improve the quality of antecedent soil moisture information available for operational hydrologic forecasting. We objectively validate this claim by calculating the strength of the relationship between storm-scale runoff ratio (i...

Storm surge model based on variational data assimilation method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shi-li Huang

2010-06-01

Full Text Available By combining computation and observation information, the variational data assimilation method has the ability to eliminate errors caused by the uncertainty of parameters in practical forecasting. It was applied to a storm surge model based on unstructured grids with high spatial resolution meant for improving the forecasting accuracy of the storm surge. By controlling the wind stress drag coefficient, the variation-based model was developed and validated through data assimilation tests in an actual storm surge induced by a typhoon. In the data assimilation tests, the model accurately identified the wind stress drag coefficient and obtained results close to the true state. Then, the actual storm surge induced by Typhoon 0515 was forecast by the developed model, and the results demonstrate its efficiency in practical application.

Improved Satellite Techniques for Monitoring and Forecasting the Transition of Hurricanes to Extratropical Storms

Science.gov (United States)

Folmer, Michael; Halverson, Jeffrey; Berndt, Emily; Dunion, Jason; Goodman, Steve; Goldberg, Mitch

2014-01-01

The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites R-Series (GOES-R) and Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) Satellite Proving Grounds have introduced multiple proxy and operational products into operations over the last few years. Some of these products have proven to be useful in current operations at various National Weather Service (NWS) offices and national centers as a first look at future satellite capabilities. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Ocean Prediction Center (OPC), NESDIS Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) and the NASA Hurricane and Severe Storms Sentinel (HS3) field campaign have had access to a few of these products to assist in monitoring extratropical transitions of hurricanes. The red, green, blue (RGB) Air Mass product provides forecasters with an enhanced view of various air masses in one complete image to help differentiate between possible stratospheric/tropospheric interactions, moist tropical air masses, and cool, continental/maritime air masses. As a compliment to this product, a new Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) Ozone product was introduced in the past year to assist in diagnosing the dry air intrusions seen in the RGB Air Mass product. Finally, a lightning density product was introduced to forecasters as a precursor to the new Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) that will be housed on GOES-R, to monitor the most active regions of convection, which might indicate a disruption in the tropical environment and even signal the onset of extratropical transition. This presentation will focus on a few case studies that exhibit extratropical transition and point out the usefulness of these new satellite techniques in aiding forecasters forecast these challenging events.

Visualizing uncertainties in a storm surge ensemble data assimilation and forecasting system

KAUST Repository

Hollt, Thomas

2015-01-15

We present a novel integrated visualization system that enables the interactive visual analysis of ensemble simulations and estimates of the sea surface height and other model variables that are used for storm surge prediction. Coastal inundation, caused by hurricanes and tropical storms, poses large risks for today\\'s societies. High-fidelity numerical models of water levels driven by hurricane-force winds are required to predict these events, posing a challenging computational problem, and even though computational models continue to improve, uncertainties in storm surge forecasts are inevitable. Today, this uncertainty is often exposed to the user by running the simulation many times with different parameters or inputs following a Monte-Carlo framework in which uncertainties are represented as stochastic quantities. This results in multidimensional, multivariate and multivalued data, so-called ensemble data. While the resulting datasets are very comprehensive, they are also huge in size and thus hard to visualize and interpret. In this paper, we tackle this problem by means of an interactive and integrated visual analysis system. By harnessing the power of modern graphics processing units for visualization as well as computation, our system allows the user to browse through the simulation ensembles in real time, view specific parameter settings or simulation models and move between different spatial and temporal regions without delay. In addition, our system provides advanced visualizations to highlight the uncertainty or show the complete distribution of the simulations at user-defined positions over the complete time series of the prediction. We highlight the benefits of our system by presenting its application in a real-world scenario using a simulation of Hurricane Ike.

Aerosol deposition and suspension during a Texas dust storm

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Porch, W.M.; Lovill, J.E.

1976-03-01

It is important to understand deposition and suspension of aerosol by wind as separate phenomena. This is especially true for the case of a contaminated area of land, contributing toxic aerosol. Once the toxic particulates have left the contaminated area, they can only deposit, even though new non-toxic particulates are being suspended all around them. A fortunate meteorological situation and a site with fast response aerosol and wind instrumentation, allowed us to analyze deposition and suspension, as separate phenomena on the same data record during a Texas dust storm. The major results of this analysis can be summarized as follows: The size distribution of the soil particulates and the geometrical orientation of plowed furrows to the wind are important to the threshold velocity, beyond which particles will be suspended from bare soil. Thresholds this year for clay soil were almost double that for the previous year for sand soil; the relationship between aerosol flux and wind speed above threshold was less well defined than the sandy soil data. The relationship does seem to involve a lower exponent than the sandy soil data, which showed a flux that varied as about the sixth power of the wind speed

Constraining storm-scale forecasts of deep convective initiation with surface weather observations

Science.gov (United States)

Madaus, Luke

Successfully forecasting when and where individual convective storms will form remains an elusive goal for short-term numerical weather prediction. In this dissertation, the convective initiation (CI) challenge is considered as a problem of insufficiently resolved initial conditions and dense surface weather observations are explored as a possible solution. To better quantify convective-scale surface variability in numerical simulations of discrete convective initiation, idealized ensemble simulations of a variety of environments where CI occurs in response to boundary-layer processes are examined. Coherent features 1-2 hours prior to CI are found in all surface fields examined. While some features were broadly expected, such as positive temperature anomalies and convergent winds, negative temperature anomalies due to cloud shadowing are the largest surface anomaly seen prior to CI. Based on these simulations, several hypotheses about the required characteristics of a surface observing network to constrain CI forecasts are developed. Principally, these suggest that observation spacings of less than 4---5 km would be required, based on correlation length scales. Furthermore, it is anticipated that 2-m temperature and 10-m wind observations would likely be more relevant for effectively constraining variability than surface pressure or 2-m moisture observations based on the magnitudes of observed anomalies relative to observation error. These hypotheses are tested with a series of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) using a single CI-capable environment. The OSSE results largely confirm the hypotheses, and with 4-km and particularly 1-km surface observation spacing, skillful forecasts of CI are possible, but only within two hours of CI time. Several facets of convective-scale assimilation, including the need for properly-calibrated localization and problems from non-Gaussian ensemble estimates of the cloud field are discussed. Finally, the characteristics

A new deterministic Ensemble Kalman Filter with one-step-ahead smoothing for storm surge forecasting

KAUST Repository

Raboudi, Naila

2016-11-01

by performing assimilation experiments with the highly nonlinear Lorenz model and a realistic setting of the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) model configured for storm surge forecasting in the Gulf of Mexico during Hurricane Ike.

Difference in the wind speeds required for initiation versus continuation of sand transport on mars: implications for dunes and dust storms.

Science.gov (United States)

Kok, Jasper F

2010-02-19

Much of the surface of Mars is covered by dunes, ripples, and other features formed by the blowing of sand by wind, known as saltation. In addition, saltation loads the atmosphere with dust aerosols, which dominate the Martian climate. We show here that saltation can be maintained on Mars by wind speeds an order of magnitude less than required to initiate it. We further show that this hysteresis effect causes saltation to occur for much lower wind speeds than previously thought. These findings have important implications for the formation of dust storms, sand dunes, and ripples on Mars.

Marine Text Forecasts and Products Listing

Science.gov (United States)

FQPZ23KWNO West Coast 06z, 18z FQAC23KWNO Artic Alaska 06z, 18z Computer-generated extratropical storm surge Water Levels Tsunami Coastal/Lakeshore Hazard Message; Storm Surge Forecasts Satellite Orbit Predictions Update (Storm #1) As required TCUAT2 (alt) Tropical Cyclone Update (Storm #2) As required TCUAT3 (alt

Viking orbiter imaging observations of dust in the Martian atmosphere

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Briggs, G.A.; Baum, W.A.; Barnes, J.

1979-01-01

More than 20 local Martian dust clouds and two global dust storms were observed with the Viking orbiter camera. Sixteen of the local clouds were imaged in two colors or were observed with other instruments confirming their identification as dust clouds. These Viking results are compared with earth-based observations of Martian dust storms and with Mariner 9 data. Most of the dust activity seen by Viking occurred during southern hemisphere spring and early summer, when Mars was near perihelion and isolation was near maximum. About half the local clouds occurred near the edge of the southern polar cap, where winds are presumably enhanced by a strong regional temperature gradient. The other half occurred mainly in the southern hemisphere near regions where circulation models incorporating topography predict positive vertical velocities. Although dust clouds observed from earth show a similar partial correlation with models, some ambiguity exists concerning interpretation of regions near Hellespontus that have spawned the most spectacular Martian dust storms on record

The women day storm

OpenAIRE

Parnowski, Aleksei; Polonska, Anna; Semeniv, Oleg

2012-01-01

On behalf of the International Women Day, the Sun gave a hot kiss to our mother Earth in a form of a full halo CME generated by the yesterday's double X-class flare. The resulting geomagnetic storm gives a good opportunity to compare the performance of space weather forecast models operating in near-real-time. We compare the forecasts of most major models and identify some common problems. We also present the results of our own near-real-time forecast models.

The impact of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation on the frequency of spring dust storms over Tarim Basin in northwest China in the past half-century

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhao Yong; Huang Anning; Zhou Yang; Huang Ying; Zhu Xinsheng

2013-01-01

The relationship between the frequency of spring dust storms over Tarim Basin in northwest China and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is investigated by using the observed dust storm frequency (DSF) and the 10 m wind velocity at 36 stations in Tarim Basin and the National Centers for Environment Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data for the period 1961–2007. The spring DSF (winter NAO) index shows a clear decreasing (increasing) linear trend over 1961–2007. The winter NAO correlates well with the subsequent spring DSF over Tarim Basin on both interannual and interdecadal time scales and its interannual to interdecadal variation plays an important role in the spring DSF. Two possible physical mechanisms are identified. One is related to the large scale anomalous circulations in spring in the middle to high troposphere modulated by the winter NAO, providing the background of dynamical conditions for the dust storm occurrences. The other is related to the shifts in the local horizontal sea level pressure (SLP) gradients and 10 m wind speed, corresponding to changes in the large scale circulations in spring. The decrease in the local 10 m wind speed due to the reduced horizontal SLP gradients over Tarim Basin during the strong winter NAO years contributes to the decline of the DSF in the subsequent spring. (letter)

Forecasting Winter Storms in the Sierra: A Social Science Perspective in Keeping the Public Safe without Negatively Impacting the Local Tourism Industry

Science.gov (United States)

Milne, R.; Wallmann, J.; Myrick, D. T.

2010-12-01

The National Weather Service Office in Reno is responsible for issuing Blizzard Warnings, Winter Storm Warnings, and Winter Weather Advisories for the Sierra, including the Lake Tahoe Basin and heavily traveled routes such as Interstate 80, Highway 395 and Highway 50. These forecast products prepare motorists for harsh travel conditions as well as those venturing into the backcountry, which are essential to the NWS mission of saving lives and property. During the winter season, millions of people from around the world visit the numerous world class ski resorts in the Sierra and the Lake Tahoe Basin, which is vital to the local economy. This situation creates a challenging decision for the forecasters to provide appropriate wording in winter statements to keep the public safe, without significantly impacting the local tourism-based economy. Numerous text and graphical products, including online weather briefings, are utilized by NWS Reno to highlight hazards in ensuring the public, businesses, and other government agencies are prepared for winter storms and take appropriate safety measures. The effectiveness of these product types will be explored, with past snowstorms used as examples to show how forecasters determine which type of text or graphical product is most appropriate to convey the hazardous weather threats.

Rapid wave and storm surge warning system for tropical cyclones in Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Appendini, C. M.; Rosengaus, M.; Meza, R.; Camacho, V.

2015-12-01

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, is responsible for the forecast of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific basins. As such, Mexico, Central America and Caribbean countries depend on the information issued by the NHC related to the characteristics of a particular tropical cyclone and associated watch and warning areas. Despite waves and storm surge are important hazards for marine operations and coastal dwellings, their forecast is not part of the NHC responsibilities. This work presents a rapid wave and storm surge warning system based on 3100 synthetic tropical cyclones doing landfall in Mexico. Hydrodynamic and wave models were driven by the synthetic events to create a robust database composed of maximum envelops of wind speed, significant wave height and storm surge for each event. The results were incorporated into a forecast system that uses the NHC advisory to locate the synthetic events passing inside specified radiuses for the present and forecast position of the real event. Using limited computer resources, the system displays the information meeting the search criteria, and the forecaster can select specific events to generate the desired hazard map (i.e. wind, waves, and storm surge) based on the maximum envelop maps. This system was developed in a limited time frame to be operational in 2015 by the National Hurricane and Severe Storms Unit of the Mexican National Weather Service, and represents a pilot project for other countries in the region not covered by detailed storm surge and waves forecasts.

Lorentz-Shaped Comet Dust Trail Cross Section from New Hybrid Visual and Video Meteor Counting Technique - Implications for Future Leonid Storm Encounters

Science.gov (United States)

Jenniskens, Peter; Crawford, Chris; Butow, Steven J.; Nugent, David; Koop, Mike; Holman, David; Houston, Jane; Jobse, Klaas; Kronk, Gary

2000-01-01

A new hybrid technique of visual and video meteor observations was developed to provide high precision near real-time flux measurements for satellite operators from airborne platforms. A total of 33,000 Leonids. recorded on video during the 1999 Leonid storm, were watched by a team of visual observers using a video head display and an automatic counting tool. The counts reveal that the activity profile of the Leonid storm is a Lorentz profile. By assuming a radial profile for the dust trail that is also a Lorentzian, we make predictions for future encounters. If that assumption is correct, we passed 0.0003 AU deeper into the 1899 trailet than expected during the storm of 1999 and future encounters with the 1866 trailet will be less intense than. predicted elsewhere.

Verification of space weather forecasts at the UK Met Office

Science.gov (United States)

Bingham, S.; Sharpe, M.; Jackson, D.; Murray, S.

2017-12-01

The UK Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC) has produced space weather guidance twice a day since its official opening in 2014. Guidance includes 4-day probabilistic forecasts of X-ray flares, geomagnetic storms, high-energy electron events and high-energy proton events. Evaluation of such forecasts is important to forecasters, stakeholders, model developers and users to understand the performance of these forecasts and also strengths and weaknesses to enable further development. Met Office terrestrial near real-time verification systems have been adapted to provide verification of X-ray flare and geomagnetic storm forecasts. Verification is updated daily to produce Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves and Reliability diagrams, and rolling Ranked Probability Skill Scores (RPSSs) thus providing understanding of forecast performance and skill. Results suggest that the MOSWOC issued X-ray flare forecasts are usually not statistically significantly better than a benchmark climatological forecast (where the climatology is based on observations from the previous few months). By contrast, the issued geomagnetic storm activity forecast typically performs better against this climatological benchmark.

Density currents as a desert dust mobilization mechanism

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Solomos

2012-11-01

Full Text Available The formation and propagation of density currents are well studied processes in fluid dynamics with many applications in other science fields. In the atmosphere, density currents are usually meso-β/γ phenomena and are often associated with storm downdrafts. These storms are responsible for the formation of severe dust episodes (haboobs over desert areas. In the present study, the formation of a convective cool pool and the associated dust mobilization are examined for a representative event over the western part of Sahara desert. The physical processes involved in the mobilization of dust are described with the use of the integrated atmospheric-air quality RAMS/ICLAMS model. Dust is effectively produced due to the development of near surface vortices and increased turbulent mixing along the frontal line. Increased dust emissions and recirculation of the elevated particles inside the head of the density current result in the formation of a moving "dust wall". Transport of the dust particles in higher layers – outside of the density current – occurs mainly in three ways: (1 Uplifting of preexisting dust over the frontal line with the aid of the strong updraft (2 Entrainment at the upper part of the density current head due to turbulent mixing (3 Vertical mixing after the dilution of the system. The role of the dust in the associated convective cloud system was found to be limited. Proper representation of convective processes and dust mobilization requires the use of high resolution (cloud resolving model configuration and online parameterization of dust production. Haboob-type dust storms are effective dust sources and should be treated accordingly in dust modeling applications.

Forecasting the 12-14 March 1993 superstorm

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Uccellini, L.W.; Kocin, P.J.; Schneider, R.S.; Stokols, P.M.; Dorr, R.A. [National Weather Service, Camp Springs, MD (United States)]|[National Weather Service, Bohemia, NY (United States)

1995-02-01

This paper describes the decision-making process used by the forecasters in the National Meteorological Center`s (NMC`s) Meterolological Operations Division and in Weather Forecast Offices of the National Weather Service to provide the successful forecasts of the superstorm of 12-14 March 1993. This review illustrates (1) the difficult decisions forecasters faced when using sometimes conflicting model guidance, (2) the forecasters` success in recognizing the mesoscale aspects of the storm as it began to develop and move along the Gulf and East Coasts of the United States, and (3) their ability to produce one of the most successful heavy snow and blizzard forecasts ever for a major winter storm that affected the eastern third of the United States. The successful aspects of the forecasts include the following. (1) Cyclogenesis was predicted up to 5 days prior to its onset. (2) The unusual intensity of the storm was predicted three days in advance, allowing forecasters, government officials, and the media ample time to prepare the public, marine, and aviation interests to take precautions for the protection of life and property. (3) The excessive amounts and areal distribution of snowfall were prediceted two days in advance of its onset. (4) An extensive number of blizzard watches and warnings were issued throughout the eastern United States with unprecedented lead times. (5) The coordination of forecasts within the National Weather Service and between the National Weather Service, private forecasters, and media meteorologists was perhaps the most extensive in recent history.

Forecasting the space weather impact

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Crosby, N. B.; Veronig, A.; Robbrecht, E.

2012-01-01

The FP7 COronal Mass Ejections and Solar Energetic Particles (COMESEP) project is developing tools for forecasting geomagnetic storms and solar energetic particle (SEP) radiation storms. By analysis of historical data, complemented by the extensive data coverage of solar cycle 23, the key ingredi...

High-Resolution WRF Forecasts of Lightning Threat

Science.gov (United States)

Goodman, S. J.; McCaul, E. W., Jr.; LaCasse, K.

2007-01-01

Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)lightning and precipitation observations have confirmed the existence of a robust relationship between lightning flash rates and the amount of large precipitating ice hydrometeors in storms. This relationship is exploited, in conjunction with the capabilities of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, to forecast the threat of lightning from convective storms using the output fields from the model forecasts. The simulated vertical flux of graupel at -15C is used in this study as a proxy for charge separation processes and their associated lightning risk. Initial experiments using 6-h simulations are conducted for a number of case studies for which three-dimensional lightning validation data from the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array are available. The WRF has been initialized on a 2 km grid using Eta boundary conditions, Doppler radar radial velocity and reflectivity fields, and METAR and ACARS data. An array of subjective and objective statistical metrics is employed to document the utility of the WRF forecasts. The simulation results are also compared to other more traditional means of forecasting convective storms, such as those based on inspection of the convective available potential energy field.

Direct Radiative Effect of Mineral Dust on the Development of African Easterly Wave in Late Summer, 2003-2007

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Po-Lun; Zhang, Kai; Shi, Jainn Jong; Matsui, Toshihisa; Arking, Albert

2012-01-01

Episodic events of both Saharan dust outbreaks and African Easterly Waves (AEWs) are observed to move westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. The relationship between the warm, dry, and dusty Saharan Air Layer (SAL) on the nearby storms has been the subject of considerable debate. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to investigate the radiative effect of dust on the development of AEWs during August and September, the months of maximum tropical cyclone activity, in years 2003-2007. The simulations show that dust radiative forcing enhances the convective instability of the environment. As a result, most AEWs intensify in the presence of a dust layer. The Lorenz energy cycle analysis reveals that the dust radiative forcing enhances the condensational heating, which elevates the zonal and eddy available potential energy. In turn, available potential energy is effectively converted to eddy kinetic energy, in which local convective overturning plays the primary role. The magnitude of the intensification effect depends on the initial environmental conditions, including moisture, baroclinity, and the depth of the boundary layer. We conclude that dust radiative forcing, albeit small, serves as a catalyst to promote local convection that facilitates AEW development.

Simulating Storm Surge Impacts with a Coupled Atmosphere-Inundation Model with Varying Meteorological Forcing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexandra N. Ramos Valle

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Storm surge events have the potential to cause devastating damage to coastal communities. The magnitude of their impacts highlights the need for increased accuracy and real-time forecasting and predictability of storm surge. In this study, we assess two meteorological forcing configurations to hindcast the storm surge of Hurricane Sandy, and ultimately support the improvement of storm surge forecasts. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model is coupled to the ADvanced CIRCulation Model (ADCIRC to determine water elevations. We perform four coupled simulations and compare storm surge estimates resulting from the use of a parametric vortex model and a full-physics atmospheric model. One simulation is forced with track-based meteorological data calculated from WRF, while three simulations are forced with the full wind and pressure field outputs from WRF simulations of varying resolutions. Experiments were compared to an ADCIRC simulation forced by National Hurricane Center best track data, as well as to station observations. Our results indicated that given accurate meteorological best track data, a parametric vortex model can accurately forecast maximum water elevations, improving upon the use of a full-physics coupled atmospheric-surge model. In the absence of a best track, atmospheric forcing in the form of full wind and pressure field from a high-resolution atmospheric model simulation prove reliable for storm surge forecasting.

Global transport of thermophilic bacteria in atmospheric dust.

Science.gov (United States)

Perfumo, Amedea; Marchant, Roger

2010-04-01

Aerosols from dust storms generated in the Sahara-Sahel desert area of Africa are transported north over Europe and periodically result in dry dust precipitation in the Mediterranean region. Samples of dust collected in Turkey and Greece following two distinct desert storm events contained viable thermophilic organisms of the genus Geobacillus, namely G. thermoglucosidasius and G. thermodenitrificans, and the recently reclassified Aeribacillus pallidus (formerly Geobacillus pallidus). We present here evidence that African dust storms create an atmospheric bridge between distant geographical regions and that they are also probably the source of thermophilic geobacilli later deposited over northern Europe by rainfall or dust plumes themselves. The same organisms (99% similarity in the 16S rDNA sequence) were found in dust collected in the Mediterranean region and inhabiting cool soils in Northern Ireland. This study also contributes new insights to the taxonomic identification of Geobacillus sp. Attempts to identify these organisms using 16S rRNA gene sequences have revealed that they contain multiple and diverse copies of the ribosomal RNA operon (up to 10 copies with nine different sequences), which dictates care in interpreting data about the systematics of this genus. © 2010 Society for Applied Microbiology and Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Hurricane feedback research may improve intensity forecasts

Science.gov (United States)

Schultz, Colin

2012-06-01

Forecasts of a hurricane's intensity are generally much less accurate than forecasts of its most likely path. Large-scale atmospheric patterns dictate where a hurricane will go and how quickly it will get there. The storm's intensity, however, depends on small-scale shifts in atmospheric stratification, upwelling rates, and other transient dynamics that are difficult to predict. Properly understanding the risk posed by an impending storm depends on having a firm grasp of all three properties: translational speed, intensity, and path. Drawing on 40 years of hurricane records representing 3090 different storms, Mei et al. propose that a hurricane's translational speed and intensity may be closely linked.

Next-generation storm tracking for minimizing service interruption

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sznaider, R. [Meteorlogix, Minneapolis, MN (United States)

2002-08-01

Several technological changes have taken place in the field of weather radar since its discovery during World War II. A wide variety of industries have benefited over the years from conventional weather radar displays, providing assistance in forecasting and estimating the potential severity of storms. The characteristics of individual storm cells can now be derived from the next-generation of weather radar systems (NEXRAD). The determination of which storm cells possess distinct features such as large hail or developing tornadoes was made possible through the fusing of various pieces of information with radar pictures. To exactly determine when and where a storm will hit, this data can be combined and overlaid into a display that includes the geographical physical landmarks of a specific region. Combining Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and storm tracking provides a more complete, timely and accurate forecast, which clearly benefits the electric utilities industries. The generation and production of energy are dependent on how hot or cold it will be today and tomorrow. The author described each major feature of this next-generation weather radar system. 9 figs.

Study on an intense dust storm over Greece

Science.gov (United States)

Kaskaoutis, D. G.; Kambezidis, H. D.; Nastos, P. T.; Kosmopoulos, P. G.

Springtime constitutes the most favorable period for Sahara dust outbreaks and transport over Eastern Mediterranean. This study investigates the aerosol properties during April 2005 using remote-sensing and ground-based measurements. Three dust events with high aerosol optical depth (AOD) values have been observed during the measuring period, with duration of two days, i.e. 11-12, 16-17 and 25-26 April 2005. In this paper we mainly focus on the intense dust event of 16-17 April 2005, when a thick dust layer transported from Libya affected the whole Greek territory. Very high AOD values obtained from Aqua-MODIS sensor were observed over Greece (mean 2.42 ± 1.25) on 17 April, while the respective mean April value was 0.31 ± 0.09. The AOD at 550 nm (AOD 550) values over Crete were even larger, reaching ˜4.0. As a consequence, the PM 10 concentrations over Athens dramatically increased reaching up to 200 μg m -3. On the other hand, the fine-mode fraction values obtained from Terra-MODIS showed a substantial decrease in the whole Greek area on 17 April with values below 0.2 in the Southern regions. The intense dust layer showed a complex behavior concerning its spatial and temporal evolution and allowed us to study the changes in the optical properties of the desert dust particles along their transport routes due to the mixing processes with other aerosol types. The results from different measurements (ground-based and remote-sensing) did not contradict each other and, therefore, are adequate for monitoring of dust load over the Eastern Mediterranean.

Extreme dust storm over the eastern Mediterranean in September 2015: satellite, lidar, and surface observations in the Cyprus region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R.-E. Mamouri

2016-11-01

Full Text Available A record-breaking dust storm originating from desert regions in northern Syria and Iraq occurred over the eastern Mediterranean in September 2015. In this contribution of a series of two articles (part 1, observations; part 2, atmospheric modeling, we provide a comprehensive overview of the aerosol conditions during this extreme dust outbreak in the Cyprus region. These observations are based on satellite observations (MODIS, moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer of aerosol optical thickness (AOT and Ångström exponent, surface particle mass (PM10 concentrations measured at four sites in Cyprus, visibility observations at three airports in southern Cyprus and corresponding conversion products (particle extinction coefficient, dust mass concentrations, EARLINET (European Aerosol Research Lidar Network lidar observations of dust vertical layering over Limassol, particle optical properties (backscatter, extinction, lidar ratio, linear depolarization ratio, and derived profiles of dust mass concentrations. Maximum 550 nm AOT exceeded values of 5.0, according to MODIS, and the mass loads were correspondingly >  10 g m−2 over Larnaca and Limassol during the passage of an extremely dense dust front on 8 September 2015. Hourly mean PM10 values were close to 8000 µg m−3 and the observed meteorological optical range (visibility was reduced to 300–750 m at Larnaca and Limassol. The visibility observations suggest peak values of the near-surface total suspended particle (TSP extinction coefficients of 6000 Mm−1 and thus TSP mass concentrations of 10 000 µg m−3. The Raman polarization lidar observations mainly indicated a double layer structure of the dust plumes (reaching to about 4 km height, pointing to at least two different dust source regions. Dust particle extinction coefficients (532 nm already exceeded 1000 Mm−1 and the mass concentrations reached 2000 µg m−3 in the elevated dust layers on

Storm and cloud dynamics

CERN Document Server

Cotton, William R

1992-01-01

This book focuses on the dynamics of clouds and of precipitating mesoscale meteorological systems. Clouds and precipitating mesoscale systems represent some of the most important and scientifically exciting weather systems in the world. These are the systems that produce torrential rains, severe winds including downburst and tornadoes, hail, thunder and lightning, and major snow storms. Forecasting such storms represents a major challenge since they are too small to be adequately resolved by conventional observing networks and numerical prediction models.Key Features* Key Highlight

Asian Dust Storm Elevates Children’s Respiratory Health Risks: A Spatiotemporal Analysis of Children’s Clinic Visits across Taipei (Taiwan)

OpenAIRE

Yu, Hwa-Lung; Chien, Lung-Chang; Yang, Chiang-Hsing

2012-01-01

Concerns have been raised about the adverse impact of Asian dust storms (ADS) on human health; however, few studies have examined the effect of these events on children's health. Using databases from the Taiwan National Health Insurance and Taiwan Environmental Protection Agency, this study investigates the documented daily visits of children to respiratory clinics during and after ADS that occurred from 1997 to 2007 among 12 districts across Taipei City by applying a Bayesian structural addi...

The impact of Pacific Decadal Oscillation on springtime dust activity in Syria

Science.gov (United States)

Pu, B.; Ginoux, P. A.

2016-12-01

The increasing trend of aerosol optical depth in the Middle East and a recent severe dust storm in Syria have raised questions as whether dust storms will increase and promoted investigations on the dust activities driven by the natural climate variability underlying the ongoing human perturbations such as the Syrian civil war. This study examined the influences of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) on dust activities in Syria using an innovative dust optical depth (DOD) dataset derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Deep Blue aerosol products. A significantly negative correlation is found between the Syrian DOD and the PDO in spring from 2003-2015. High DOD in spring is associated with lower geopotential height over the Middle East, Europe, and North Africa, accompanied by near surface anomalous westerly winds over the Mediterranean basin and southerly winds over the eastern Arabian Peninsula. These large-scale patterns promote the formation of the cyclones over the Middle East to trigger dust storms and also facilitate the transport of dust from North Africa, Iraq, and Saudi Arabian to Syria, where the transported dust dominates the seasonal mean DOD in spring. A negative PDO not only creates circulation anomalies favorable to high DOD in Syria but also suppresses precipitation in dust source regions over the eastern and southern Arabian Peninsula and northeastern Africa. On the daily scale, in addition to the favorable large-scale condition associated with a negative PDO, enhanced atmospheric instability in Syria associated with increased precipitation in Turkey and northern Syria is also critical for the development of strong springtime dust storms in Syria.

The Dust Storm Index (DSI): A method for monitoring broadscale wind erosion using meteorological records

Science.gov (United States)

O'Loingsigh, T.; McTainsh, G. H.; Tews, E. K.; Strong, C. L.; Leys, J. F.; Shinkfield, P.; Tapper, N. J.

2014-03-01

Wind erosion of soils is a natural process that has shaped the semi-arid and arid landscapes for millennia. This paper describes the Dust Storm Index (DSI); a methodology for monitoring wind erosion using Australian Bureau of Meteorology (ABM) meteorological observational data since the mid-1960s (long-term), at continental scale. While the 46 year length of the DSI record is its greatest strength from a wind erosion monitoring perspective, there are a number of technical challenges to its use because when the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) recording protocols were established the use of the data for wind erosion monitoring was never intended. Data recording and storage protocols are examined, including the effects of changes to the definition of how observers should interpret and record dust events. A method is described for selecting the 180 long-term ABM stations used in this study and the limitations of variable observation frequencies between stations are in part resolved. The rationale behind the DSI equation is explained and the examples of temporal and spatial data visualisation products presented include; a long term national wind erosion record (1965-2011), continental DSI maps, and maps of the erosion event types that are factored into the DSI equation. The DSI is tested against dust concentration data and found to provide an accurate representation of wind erosion activity. As the ABM observational records used here were collected according to WMO protocols, the DSI methodology could be used in all countries with WMO-compatible meteorological observation and recording systems.

Ecological Restoration Programs Induced Amelioration of the Dust Pollution in North China Plain

Science.gov (United States)

Long, X.; Tie, X.; Li, G.; Junji, C.

2017-12-01

With Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land cover product (MCD12Q1), we quantitatively evaluate the ecological restoration programs (ERP) induced land cover change in China by calculating gridded the land use fraction (LUF). We clearly capture two obvious vegetation (grass and forest) protective barriers arise between the dust source region DSR and North China Plain NCP from 2011 to 2013. The WRF-DUST model is applied to investigate the impact of ERPs on dust pollution from 2 to 8 March 2016, corresponding to a national dust storm event over China. Despite some model biases, the WRF-DUST model reasonably reproduced the temporal variations of dust storm event, involving IOA of 0.96 and NMB of 2% for DSR, with IOA of 0.83 and NMB of -15% for downwind area of NCP. Generally, the WRF-DUST model well capture the spatial variations and evolutions of dust storm events with episode-average [PMC] correlation coefficient (R) of 0.77, especially the dust storm outbreak and transport evolution, involving daily average [PMC] R of 0.9 and 0.73 on 4-5 March, respectively. It is found that the ERPs generally reduce the dust pollution in NCP, especially for BTH, involving upper dust pollution control benefits of -15.3% (-21.0 μg m-3) for BTH, and -6.2% (-9.3 μg m-3) for NCP. We are the first to conduct model sensitivity studies to quantitatively evaluate the impacts of the ERPs on the dust pollution in NCP. And our narrative is independently based on first-hand sources, whereas government statistics.

Enhancement and identification of dust events in the south-west ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

in dust source regions, which have a negative impact on human health ... Keywords. MODIS; dust storm; visible; infrared; remote sensing; brightness temperature. 1 ... clouds can often be misinterpreted as dust. In order to ... dust aerosol outbreaks over land using satellite ... models were also used to track air parcels arriving.

Verification of Space Weather Forecasts using Terrestrial Weather Approaches

Science.gov (United States)

Henley, E.; Murray, S.; Pope, E.; Stephenson, D.; Sharpe, M.; Bingham, S.; Jackson, D.

2015-12-01

The Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC) provides a range of 24/7 operational space weather forecasts, alerts, and warnings, which provide valuable information on space weather that can degrade electricity grids, radio communications, and satellite electronics. Forecasts issued include arrival times of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and probabilistic forecasts for flares, geomagnetic storm indices, and energetic particle fluxes and fluences. These forecasts are produced twice daily using a combination of output from models such as Enlil, near-real-time observations, and forecaster experience. Verification of forecasts is crucial for users, researchers, and forecasters to understand the strengths and limitations of forecasters, and to assess forecaster added value. To this end, the Met Office (in collaboration with Exeter University) has been adapting verification techniques from terrestrial weather, and has been working closely with the International Space Environment Service (ISES) to standardise verification procedures. We will present the results of part of this work, analysing forecast and observed CME arrival times, assessing skill using 2x2 contingency tables. These MOSWOC forecasts can be objectively compared to those produced by the NASA Community Coordinated Modelling Center - a useful benchmark. This approach cannot be taken for the other forecasts, as they are probabilistic and categorical (e.g., geomagnetic storm forecasts give probabilities of exceeding levels from minor to extreme). We will present appropriate verification techniques being developed to address these forecasts, such as rank probability skill score, and comparing forecasts against climatology and persistence benchmarks. As part of this, we will outline the use of discrete time Markov chains to assess and improve the performance of our geomagnetic storm forecasts. We will also discuss work to adapt a terrestrial verification visualisation system to space weather, to help

Application of wind-profiling radar data to the analysis of dust weather in the Taklimakan Desert.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Minzhong; Wei, Wenshou; Ruan, Zheng; He, Qing; Ge, Runsheng

2013-06-01

The Urumqi Institute of Desert Meteorology of the China Meteorological Administration carried out an atmospheric scientific experiment to detect dust weather using a wind-profiling radar in the hinterland of the Taklimakan Desert in April 2010. Based on the wind-profiling data obtained from this experiment, this paper seeks to (a) analyze the characteristics of the horizontal wind field and vertical velocity of a breaking dust weather in a desert hinterland; (b) calculate and give the radar echo intensity and vertical distribution of a dust storm, blowing sand, and floating dust weather; and (c) discuss the atmosphere dust counts/concentration derived from the wind-profiling radar data. Studies show that: (a) A wind-profiling radar is an upper-air atmospheric remote sensing system that effectively detects and monitors dust. It captures the beginning and ending of a dust weather process as well as monitors the sand and dust being transported in the air in terms of height, thickness, and vertical intensity. (b) The echo intensity of a blowing sand and dust storm weather episode in Taklimakan is about -1~10 dBZ while that of floating dust -1~-15 dBZ, indicating that the dust echo intensity is significantly weaker than that of precipitation but stronger than that of clear air. (c) The vertical shear of horizontal wind and the maintenance of low-level east wind are usually dynamic factors causing a dust weather process in Taklimakan. The moment that the low-level horizontal wind field finds a shear over time, it often coincides with the onset of a sand blowing and dust storm weather process. (d) When a blowing sand or dust storm weather event occurs, the atmospheric vertical velocity tends to be of upward motion. This vertical upward movement of the atmosphere supported with a fast horizontal wind and a dry underlying surface carries dust particles from the ground up to the air to form blown sand or a dust storm.

New insights into the vertical structure of the September 2015 dust storm employing eight ceilometers and auxiliary measurements over Israel

Science.gov (United States)

Uzan, Leenes; Egert, Smadar; Alpert, Pinhas

2018-03-01

On 7 September 2015, an unprecedented and unexceptional extreme dust storm struck the eastern Mediterranean (EM) basin. Here, we provide an overview of the previous studies and describe the dust plume evolution over a relatively small area, i.e., Israel. This study presents vertical profiles provided by an array of eight ceilometers covering the Israeli shore, inland and mountain regions. We employ multiple tools including spectral radiometers (Aerosol Robotic Network - AERONET), ground particulate matter concentrations, satellite images, global/diffuse/direct solar radiation measurements and radiosonde profiles. The main findings reveal that the dust plume penetrated Israel on 7 September from the northeast in a downward motion to southwest. On 8 September, the lower level of the dust plume reached 200 m above ground level, generating aerosol optical depth (AOD) above 3 and extreme ground particulate matter concentrations up to ˜ 10 000 µm m-3. A most interesting feature on 8 September was the very high variability in the surface solar radiation in the range of 200-600 W m-2 (22 sites) over just a distance of several hundred kilometers in spite of the thick dust layer above. Furthermore, 8 September shows the lowest radiation levels for this event. On the following day, the surface solar radiation increased, thus enabling a late (between 11:00 and 12:00 UTC) sea breeze development mainly in the coastal zone associated with a creation of a narrow dust layer detached from the ground. On 10 September, the AOD values started to drop down to ˜ 1.5, and the surface concentrations of particulate matter decreased as well as the ceilometers' aerosol indications (signal counts) although Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) revealed an upper dust layer remained.

Revisiting the synoptic-scale predictability of severe European winter storms using ECMWF ensemble reforecasts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F. Pantillon

2017-10-01

Full Text Available New insights into the synoptic-scale predictability of 25 severe European winter storms of the 1995–2015 period are obtained using the homogeneous ensemble reforecast dataset from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The predictability of the storms is assessed with different metrics including (a the track and intensity to investigate the storms' dynamics and (b the Storm Severity Index to estimate the impact of the associated wind gusts. The storms are well predicted by the whole ensemble up to 2–4 days ahead. At longer lead times, the number of members predicting the observed storms decreases and the ensemble average is not clearly defined for the track and intensity. The Extreme Forecast Index and Shift of Tails are therefore computed from the deviation of the ensemble from the model climate. Based on these indices, the model has some skill in forecasting the area covered by extreme wind gusts up to 10 days, which indicates a clear potential for early warnings. However, large variability is found between the individual storms. The poor predictability of outliers appears related to their physical characteristics such as explosive intensification or small size. Longer datasets with more cases would be needed to further substantiate these points.

The impact of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on springtime dust activity in Syria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Pu

2016-10-01

Full Text Available The increasing trend of aerosol optical depth in the Middle East and a recent severe dust storm in Syria have raised questions as to whether dust storms will increase and promoted investigations on the dust activities driven by the natural climate variability underlying the ongoing human perturbations such as the Syrian civil war. This study examined the influences of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO on dust activities in Syria using an innovative dust optical depth (DOD dataset derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS Deep Blue aerosol products. A significantly negative correlation is found between the Syrian DOD and the PDO in spring from 2003 to 2015. High DOD in spring is associated with lower geopotential height over the Middle East, Europe, and North Africa, accompanied by near-surface anomalous westerly winds over the Mediterranean basin and southerly winds over the eastern Arabian Peninsula. These large-scale patterns promote the formation of the cyclones over the Middle East to trigger dust storms and also facilitate the transport of dust from North Africa, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia to Syria, where the transported dust dominates the seasonal mean DOD in spring. A negative PDO not only creates circulation anomalies favorable to high DOD in Syria but also suppresses precipitation in dust source regions over the eastern and southern Arabian Peninsula and northeastern Africa.On the daily scale, in addition to the favorable large-scale condition associated with a negative PDO, enhanced atmospheric instability in Syria (associated with increased precipitation in Turkey and northern Syria is also critical for the development of strong springtime dust storms in Syria.

The impact of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on springtime dust activity in Syria

Science.gov (United States)

Pu, Bing; Ginoux, Paul

2016-10-01

The increasing trend of aerosol optical depth in the Middle East and a recent severe dust storm in Syria have raised questions as to whether dust storms will increase and promoted investigations on the dust activities driven by the natural climate variability underlying the ongoing human perturbations such as the Syrian civil war. This study examined the influences of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on dust activities in Syria using an innovative dust optical depth (DOD) dataset derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Deep Blue aerosol products. A significantly negative correlation is found between the Syrian DOD and the PDO in spring from 2003 to 2015. High DOD in spring is associated with lower geopotential height over the Middle East, Europe, and North Africa, accompanied by near-surface anomalous westerly winds over the Mediterranean basin and southerly winds over the eastern Arabian Peninsula. These large-scale patterns promote the formation of the cyclones over the Middle East to trigger dust storms and also facilitate the transport of dust from North Africa, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia to Syria, where the transported dust dominates the seasonal mean DOD in spring. A negative PDO not only creates circulation anomalies favorable to high DOD in Syria but also suppresses precipitation in dust source regions over the eastern and southern Arabian Peninsula and northeastern Africa.On the daily scale, in addition to the favorable large-scale condition associated with a negative PDO, enhanced atmospheric instability in Syria (associated with increased precipitation in Turkey and northern Syria) is also critical for the development of strong springtime dust storms in Syria.

Aircraft route forecasting under adverse weather conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thomas Hauf

2017-04-01

Full Text Available In this paper storm nowcasts in the terminal manoeuvring area (TMA of Hong Kong International Airport are used to forecast deviation routes through a field of storms for arriving and departing aircraft. Storms were observed and nowcast by the nowcast system SWIRLS from the Hong Kong Observatory. Storms were considered as no-go zones for aircraft and deviation routes were determined with the DIVSIM software package. Two days (21 and 22 May 2011 with 22 actual flown routes were investigated. Flights were simulated with a nowcast issued at the time an aircraft entered the TMA or departed from the airport. These flights were compared with a posteriori simulations, in which all storm fields were known and circumnavigated. Both types of simulated routes were then compared with the actual flown routes. The qualitative comparison of the various routes revealed generally good agreement. Larger differences were found in more complex situations with many active storms in the TMA. Route differences resulted primarily from air traffic control measures imposed such as holdings, slow-downs and shortcuts, causing the largest differences between the estimated and actual landing time. Route differences could be enhanced as aircraft might be forced to circumnavigate a storm ahead in a different sense. The use of route forecasts to assist controllers coordinating flights in a complex moving storm field is discussed. The study emphasises the important application of storm nowcasts in aviation meteorology.

Ozone Production by Colliding Dust in the Martian Atmosphere

Science.gov (United States)

Baragiola, R. A.; Dukes, C. A.

2012-03-01

Laboratory studies show that ozone is produced by electrical discharges when rocks fracture. We propose that a similar process should occur in the collision of dust particles during dust storms in Mars and discuss implications.

Coupling the Mars Dust and Water Cycles: Investigating the Role of Clouds in Controlling the Vertical Distribution of Dust During N. H. Summer

Science.gov (United States)

Kahre, M. A.; Haberle, R. M.; Hollingsworth, J. L.; Wilson, R. J.

2014-01-01

The dust cycle is critically important for the current climate of Mars. The radiative effects of dust impact the thermal and dynamical state of the atmosphere (Gierasch and Goody, 1968; Haberle et al., 1982; Zurek et al., 1992). Although dust is present in the Martian atmosphere throughout the year, the level of dustiness varies with season. The atmosphere is generally the dustiest during northern fall and winter and the least dusty during northern spring and summer (Smith, 2004). Dust particles are lifted into the atmosphere by dust storms that range in size from meters to thousands of kilometers across (Cantor et al., 2001). During some years, regional storms combine to produce hemispheric or planet encircling dust clouds that obscure the surface and raise atmospheric temperatures by as much as 40 K (Smith et al., 2002). Key recent observations of the vertical distribution of dust indicate that elevated layers of dust exist in the tropics and sub-tropics throughout much of the year (Heavens et al., 2011). These observations have brought particular focus on the processes that control the vertical distribution of dust in the Martian atmosphere. The goal of this work is to further our understanding of how clouds in particular control the vertical distribution of dust, particularly during N. H. spring and summer

The Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Particulate Matter during Natural Dust Episodes at an Urban Scale.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Helena Krasnov

Full Text Available Dust storms are a common phenomenon in arid and semi-arid areas, and their impacts on both physical and human environments are of great interest. Number of studies have associated atmospheric PM pollution in urban environments with origin in natural soil/dust, but less evaluated the dust spatial patterns over a city. We aimed to analyze the spatial-temporal behavior of PM concentrations over the city of Beer Sheva, in southern Israel, where dust storms are quite frequent. PM data were recorded during the peak of each dust episode simultaneously in 23 predetermined fixed points around the city. Data were analyzed for both dust days and non-dust days (background. The database was constructed using Geographic Information System and includes distributions of PM that were derived using inverse distance weighted (IDW interpolation. The results show that the daily averages of atmospheric PM10 concentrations during the background period are within a narrow range of 31 to 48 μg m-3 with low variations. During dust days however, the temporal variations are significant and can range from an hourly PM10 concentration of 100 μg m-3 to more than 1280 μg m-3 during strong storms. IDW analysis demonstrates that during the peak time of the storm the spatial variations in PM between locations in the city can reach 400 μg m-3. An analysis of site and storm contribution to total PM concentration revealed that higher concentrations are found in parts of the city that are proximal to dust sources. The results improve the understanding of the dynamics of natural PM and the dependence on wind direction. This may have implications for environmental and health outcomes.

Health risk assessment of exposure to the Middle-Eastern Dust storms in the Iranian megacity of Kermanshah.

Science.gov (United States)

Goudarzi, G; Daryanoosh, S M; Godini, H; Hopke, P K; Sicard, P; De Marco, A; Rad, H D; Harbizadeh, A; Jahedi, F; Mohammadi, M J; Savari, J; Sadeghi, S; Kaabi, Z; Omidi Khaniabadi, Y

2017-07-01

This study assessed the effects of particulate matter (PM), equal or less than 10 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM 10 ), from the Middle-Eastern Dust events on public health in the megacity of Kermanshah (Iran). This study used epidemiological modeling and monitored ambient air quality data to estimate the potential PM 10 impacts on public health. The AirQ2.2.3 model was used to calculate mortality and morbidity attributed to PM 10 as representative of dust events. Using Visual Basic for Applications, the programming language of Excel software, hourly PM 10 concentrations obtained from the local agency were processed to prepare input files for the AirQ2.2.3 model. Using baseline incidence, defined by the World Health Organization, the number of estimated excess cases for respiratory mortality, hospital admissions for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, for respiratory diseases, and for cardiovascular diseases were 37, 39, 476, and 184 persons, respectively, from 21st March, 2014 to 20th March, 2015. Furthermore, 92% of mortality and morbidity cases occurred in days with PM 10 concentrations lower than 150 μg/m 3 . The highest percentage of person-days occurred for daily concentrations range of 100-109 μg/m 3 , causing the maximum health end-points among the citizens of Kermanshah. Calculating the number of cumulative excess cases for mortality or morbidity attributed to PM 10 provides a good tool for decision and policy-makers in the field of health care to compensate their shortcomings particularly at hospital and healthcare centers for combating dust storms. To diminish these effects, several immediate actions should be managed in the governmental scale to control dust such as spreading mulch and planting new species that are compatible to arid area. Copyright © 2017 The Royal Society for Public Health. All rights reserved.

A linkage between Asian dust, dissolved iron and marine export production in the deep ocean

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Yongxiang; Zhao, Tianliang; Song, Lianchun; Fang, Xiaomin; Yin, Yan; Deng, Zuqin; Wang, Suping; Fan, Shuxian

2011-08-01

Iron-addition experiments have revealed that iron supply exerts controls on biogeochemical cycles in the ocean and ultimately influences the Earth's climate system. The iron hypothesis in its broad outlines has been proved to be correct. However, the hypothesis needs to be verified with an observable biological response to specific dust deposition events. Plankton growth following the Asian dust storm over Ocean Station PAPA (50°N, 145°W) in the North Pacific Ocean in April 2001 was the first supportive evidence of natural aeolian iron inputs to ocean; The data were obtained through the SeaWiFS satellite and robot carbon explorers by Bishop et al. Using the NARCM modeling results in this study, the calculated total dust deposition flux was 35 mg m -2 per day in PAPA region from the dust storm of 11-13 April, 2001 into 0.0615 mg m -2 d -1 (about 1100 nM) soluble iron in the surface layer at Station PAPA. It was enough for about 1100 nM to enhance the efficiency of the marine biological pump and trigger the rapid increase of POC and chlorophyll. The iron fertilization hypothesis therefore is plausible. However, even if this specific dust event can support the iron fertilization hypothesis, long-term observation data are lacking in marine export production and continental dust. In this paper, we also conducted a simple correlation analysis between the diatoms and foraminifera at about 3000 m and 4000 m at two subarctic Pacific stations and the dust aerosol production from China's mainland. The correlation coefficient between marine export production and dust storm frequency in the core area of the dust storms was significantly high, suggesting that aerosols generated by Asian dust storm are the source of iron for organic matter fixation in the North Pacific Ocean. These results suggest that there could be an interlocking chain for the change of atmospheric dust aerosol-soluble iron-marine export production.

Recent and Upcoming Changes to NOAA Marine Forecasts

Science.gov (United States)

of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Graphics become operational on or around May 15, 2018 WFOs to be New Extratropical Surge and Tide Operational Forecast System for Micronesia Effective February 13 of High Seas and Storm Warning over NIST Time Frequency Broadcasts through January 20, 2018 NWS

Simulating Mars' Dust Cycle with a Mars General Circulation Model: Effects of Water Ice Cloud Formation on Dust Lifting Strength and Seasonality

Science.gov (United States)

Kahre, Melinda A.; Haberle, Robert; Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.

2012-01-01

The dust cycle is critically important for the current climate of Mars. The radiative effects of dust impact the thermal and dynamical state of the atmosphere [1,2,3]. Although dust is present in the Martian atmosphere throughout the year, the level of dustiness varies with season. The atmosphere is generally the dustiest during northern fall and winter and the least dusty during northern spring and summer [4]. Dust particles are lifted into the atmosphere by dust storms that range in size from meters to thousands of kilometers across [5]. Regional storm activity is enhanced before northern winter solstice (Ls200 degrees - 240 degrees), and after northern solstice (Ls305 degrees - 340 degrees ), which produces elevated atmospheric dust loadings during these periods [5,6,7]. These pre- and post- solstice increases in dust loading are thought to be associated with transient eddy activity in the northern hemisphere with cross-equatorial transport of dust leading to enhanced dust lifting in the southern hemisphere [6]. Interactive dust cycle studies with Mars General Circulation Models (MGCMs) have included the lifting, transport, and sedimentation of radiatively active dust. Although the predicted global dust loadings from these simulations capture some aspects of the observed dust cycle, there are marked differences between the simulated and observed dust cycles [8,9,10]. Most notably, the maximum dust loading is robustly predicted by models to occur near northern winter solstice and is due to dust lifting associated with down slope flows on the flanks of the Hellas basin. Thus far, models have had difficulty simulating the observed pre- and post- solstice peaks in dust loading.

Use of High-Resolution WRF Simulations to Forecast Lightning Threat

Science.gov (United States)

McCaul, E. W., Jr.; LaCasse, K.; Goodman, S. J.; Cecil, D. J.

2008-01-01

Recent observational studies have confirmed the existence of a robust statistical relationship between lightning flash rates and the amount of large precipitating ice hydrometeors aloft in storms. This relationship is exploited, in conjunction with the capabilities of cloud-resolving forecast models such as WRF, to forecast explicitly the threat of lightning from convective storms using selected output fields from the model forecasts. The simulated vertical flux of graupel at -15C and the shape of the simulated reflectivity profile are tested in this study as proxies for charge separation processes and their associated lightning risk. Our lightning forecast method differs from others in that it is entirely based on high-resolution simulation output, without reliance on any climatological data. short [6-8 h) simulations are conducted for a number of case studies for which three-dmmensional lightning validation data from the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array are available. Experiments indicate that initialization of the WRF model on a 2 km grid using Eta boundary conditions, Doppler radar radial velocity fields, and METAR and ACARS data y&eld satisfactory simulations. __nalyses of the lightning threat fields suggests that both the graupel flux and reflectivity profile approaches, when properly calibrated, can yield reasonable lightning threat forecasts, although an ensemble approach is probably desirable in order to reduce the tendency for misplacement of modeled storms to hurt the accuracy of the forecasts. Our lightning threat forecasts are also compared to other more traditional means of forecasting thunderstorms, such as those based on inspection of the convective available potential energy field.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) Storm Wallets

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is responsible for typhoon forecasts and warnings for the Western Pacific and Indian Ocean basins. After each storm, the JTWC...

Coupling Mars' Dust and Water Cycles: Effects on Dust Lifting Vigor, Spatial Extent and Seasonality

Science.gov (United States)

Kahre, M. A.; Hollingsworth, J. L.; Haberle, R. M.; Montmessin, F.

2012-01-01

The dust cycle is an important component of Mars' current climate system. Airborne dust affects the radiative balance of the atmosphere, thus greatly influencing the thermal and dynamical state of the atmosphere. Dust raising events on Mars occur at spatial scales ranging from meters to planet-wide. Although the occurrence and season of large regional and global dust storms are highly variable from one year to the next, there are many features of the dust cycle that occur year after year. Generally, a low-level dust haze is maintained during northern spring and summer, while elevated levels of atmospheric dust occur during northern autumn and winter. During years without global-scale dust storms, two peaks in total dust loading were observed by MGS/TES: one peak occurred before northern winter solstice at Ls 200-240, and one peak occurred after northern winter solstice at L(sub s) 305-340. These maxima in dust loading are thought to be associated with transient eddy activity in the northern hemisphere, which has been observed to maximize pre- and post-solstice. Interactive dust cycle studies with Mars General Circulation Models (MGCMs) have included the lifting, transport, and sedimentation of radiatively active dust. Although the predicted global dust loadings from these simulations capture some aspects of the observed dust cycle, there are marked differences between the simulated and observed dust cycles. Most notably, the maximum dust loading is robustly predicted by models to occur near northern winter solstice and is due to dust lifting associated with down slope flows on the flanks of the Hellas basin. Thus far, models have had difficulty simulating the observed pre- and post- solstice peaks in dust loading. Interactive dust cycle studies typically have not included the formation of water ice clouds or their radiative effects. Water ice clouds can influence the dust cycle by scavenging dust from atmosphere and by interacting with solar and infrared radiation

The physics of wind-blown sand and dust.

Science.gov (United States)

Kok, Jasper F; Parteli, Eric J R; Michaels, Timothy I; Karam, Diana Bou

2012-10-01

The transport of sand and dust by wind is a potent erosional force, creates sand dunes and ripples, and loads the atmosphere with suspended dust aerosols. This paper presents an extensive review of the physics of wind-blown sand and dust on Earth and Mars. Specifically, we review the physics of aeolian saltation, the formation and development of sand dunes and ripples, the physics of dust aerosol emission, the weather phenomena that trigger dust storms, and the lifting of dust by dust devils and other small-scale vortices. We also discuss the physics of wind-blown sand and dune formation on Venus and Titan.

Statistical uncertainty of extreme wind storms over Europe derived from a probabilistic clustering technique

Science.gov (United States)

Walz, Michael; Leckebusch, Gregor C.

2016-04-01

Extratropical wind storms pose one of the most dangerous and loss intensive natural hazards for Europe. However, due to only 50 years of high quality observational data, it is difficult to assess the statistical uncertainty of these sparse events just based on observations. Over the last decade seasonal ensemble forecasts have become indispensable in quantifying the uncertainty of weather prediction on seasonal timescales. In this study seasonal forecasts are used in a climatological context: By making use of the up to 51 ensemble members, a broad and physically consistent statistical base can be created. This base can then be used to assess the statistical uncertainty of extreme wind storm occurrence more accurately. In order to determine the statistical uncertainty of storms with different paths of progression, a probabilistic clustering approach using regression mixture models is used to objectively assign storm tracks (either based on core pressure or on extreme wind speeds) to different clusters. The advantage of this technique is that the entire lifetime of a storm is considered for the clustering algorithm. Quadratic curves are found to describe the storm tracks most accurately. Three main clusters (diagonal, horizontal or vertical progression of the storm track) can be identified, each of which have their own particulate features. Basic storm features like average velocity and duration are calculated and compared for each cluster. The main benefit of this clustering technique, however, is to evaluate if the clusters show different degrees of uncertainty, e.g. more (less) spread for tracks approaching Europe horizontally (diagonally). This statistical uncertainty is compared for different seasonal forecast products.

Ionospheric behaviour during storm recovery phase

Science.gov (United States)

Buresova, D.; Lastovicka, J.; Boska, J.; Sindelarova, T.; Chum, J.

2012-04-01

Intensive ionospheric research, numerous multi-instrumental observations and large-scale numerical simulations of ionospheric F region response to magnetic storm-induced disturbances during the last several decades were primarily focused on the storm main phase, in most cases covering only a few hours of the recovery phase following after storm culmination. Ionospheric behaviour during entire recovery phase still belongs to not sufficiently explored and hardly predictable features. In general, the recovery phase is characterized by an abatement of perturbations and a gradual return to the "ground state" of ionosphere. However, observations of stormy ionosphere show significant departures from the climatology also within this phase. This paper deals with the quantitative and qualitative analysis of the ionospheric behaviour during the entire recovery phase of strong-to-severe magnetic storms at middle latitudes for nowadays and future modelling and forecasting purposes.

Vertical distribution of Saharan dust over Rome (Italy): Comparison between 3-year model predictions and lidar soundings

Science.gov (United States)

Kishcha, P.; Barnaba, F.; Gobbi, G. P.; Alpert, P.; Shtivelman, A.; Krichak, S. O.; Joseph, J. H.

2005-03-01

Mineral dust particles loaded into the atmosphere from the Sahara desert represent one major factor affecting the Earth's radiative budget. Regular model-based forecasts of 3-D dust fields can be used in order to determine the dust radiative effect in climate models, in spite of the large gaps in observations of dust vertical profiles. In this study, dust forecasts by the Tel Aviv University (TAU) dust prediction system were compared to lidar observations to better evaluate the model's capabilities. The TAU dust model was initially developed at the University of Athens and later modified at Tel Aviv University. Dust forecasts are initialized with the aid of the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer aerosol index (TOMS AI) measurements. The lidar soundings employed were collected at the outskirts of Rome, Italy (41.84°N, 12.64°E) during the high-dust activity season from March to June of the years 2001, 2002, and 2003. The lidar vertical profiles collected in the presence of dust were used for obtaining statistically significant reference parameters of dust layers over Rome and for model versus lidar comparison. The Barnaba and Gobbi (2001) approach was used in the current study to derive height-resolved dust volumes from lidar measurements of backscatter. Close inspection of the juxtaposed vertical profiles, obtained from lidar and model data near Rome, indicates that the majority (67%) of the cases under investigation can be classified as good or acceptable forecasts of the dust vertical distribution. A more quantitative comparison shows that the model predictions are mainly accurate in the middle part of dust layers. This is supported by high correlation (0.85) between lidar and model data for forecast dust volumes greater than the threshold of 1 × 10-12 cm3/cm3. In general, however, the model tends to underestimate the lidar-derived dust volume profiles. The effect of clouds in the TOMS detection of AI is supposed to be the main factor responsible for this effect

Coastal and Riverine Flood Forecast Model powered by ADCIRC

Science.gov (United States)

Khalid, A.; Ferreira, C.

2017-12-01

Coastal flooding is becoming a major threat to increased population in the coastal areas. To protect coastal communities from tropical storms & hurricane damages, early warning systems are being developed. These systems have the capability of real time flood forecasting to identify hazardous coastal areas and aid coastal communities in rescue operations. State of the art hydrodynamic models forced by atmospheric forcing have given modelers the ability to forecast storm surge, water levels and currents. This helps to identify the areas threatened by intense storms. Study on Chesapeake Bay area has gained national importance because of its combined riverine and coastal phenomenon, which leads to greater uncertainty in flood predictions. This study presents an automated flood forecast system developed by following Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) Surge Guidance System (ASGS) guidelines and tailored to take in riverine and coastal boundary forcing, thus includes all the hydrodynamic processes to forecast total water in the Potomac River. As studies on tidal and riverine flow interaction are very scarce in number, our forecast system would be a scientific tool to examine such area and fill the gaps with precise prediction for Potomac River. Real-time observations from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and field measurements have been used as model boundary feeding. The model performance has been validated by using major historical riverine and coastal flooding events. Hydrodynamic model ADCIRC produced promising predictions for flood inundation areas. As better forecasts can be achieved by using coupled models, this system is developed to take boundary conditions from Global WaveWatchIII for the research purposes. Wave and swell propagation will be fed through Global WavewatchIII model to take into account the effects of swells and currents. This automated forecast system is currently undergoing rigorous testing to include any missing parameters which

Study of Radiative Forcing of Dust Aerosols and its impact on Climate Characteristics

KAUST Repository

Qureshi, Fawwad H

2012-12-01

The purpose of following project is to study the effect of dust aerosols on the radiative forcing which is directly related to the surface temperature. A single column radiative convective model is used for simulation purpose. A series of simulations have been performed by varying the amount of dust aerosols present in the atmosphere to study the trends in ground temperature, heating rate and radiative forcing for both its longwave and shortwave components. A case study for dust storm is also performed as dust storms are common in Arabian Peninsula. A sensitivity analyses is also performed to study the relationship of surface temperature minimum and maximum against aerosol concentration, single scattering albedo and asymmetry factor. These analyses are performed to get more insight into the role of dust aerosols on radiative forcing.

Transpacific Transport of Dust to North American High-Elevation Sites: Integrated Dataset and Model Outputs

Science.gov (United States)

Kassianov, E.; Pekour, M. S.; Flynn, C. J.; Berg, L. K.; Beranek, J.; Zelenyuk, A.; Zhao, C.; Leung, L. R.; Ma, P. L.; Riihimaki, L.; Fast, J. D.; Barnard, J.; Hallar, G. G.; McCubbin, I.; Eloranta, E. W.; McComiskey, A. C.; Rasch, P. J.

2017-12-01

Understanding the effects of dust on the regional and global climate requires detailed information on particle size distributions and their changes with distance from the source. Awareness is now growing about the tendency of the dust coarse mode with moderate ( 3.5 µm) volume median diameter (VMD) to be rather insensitive to complex removal processes associated with long-range transport of dust from the main sources. Our study, with a focus on the transpacific transport of dust, demonstrates that the impact of coarse mode aerosol (VMD 3µm) is well defined at the high-elevation mountain-top Storm Peak Laboratory (SPL, about 3.2 km MSL) and nearby Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility Mobile Facility (AMF) during March 2011. Significant amounts of coarse mode aerosol are also found at the nearest Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) site. Outputs from the high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem) show that the major dust event is likely associated with transpacific transport of Asian and African plumes. Satellite data, including the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Multiangle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) aerosol optical depth (AOD) and plume height from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) lidar data provide the observational support of the WRF-Chem simulations. Our study complements previous findings by indicating that the quasi-static nature of the coarse mode appears to be a reasonable approximation for Asian and African dust despite expected frequent orographic precipitation over mountainous regions in the western United States.

Evolution of trace elements in the planetary boundary layer in southern China: Effects of dust storms and aerosol-cloud interactions

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Tao; Wang, Yan; Zhou, Jie; Wang, Tao; Ding, Aijun; Nie, Wei; Xue, Likun; Wang, Xinfeng; Wang, Wenxing

2017-03-01

Aerosols and cloud water were analyzed at a mountaintop in the planetary boundary layer in southern China during March-May 2009, when two Asian dust storms occurred, to investigate the effects of aerosol-cloud interactions (ACIs) on chemical evolution of atmospheric trace elements. Fe, Al, and Zn predominated in both coarse and fine aerosols, followed by high concentrations of toxic Pb, As, and Cd. Most of these aerosol trace elements, which were affected by dust storms, exhibited various increases in concentrations but consistent decreases in solubility. Zn, Fe, Al, and Pb were the most abundant trace elements in cloud water. The trace element concentrations exhibited logarithmic inverse relationships with the cloud liquid water content and were found highly pH dependent with minimum concentrations at the threshold of pH 5.0. The calculation of Visual MINTEQ model showed that 80.7-96.3% of Fe(II), Zn(II), Pb(II), and Cu(II) existed in divalent free ions, while 71.7% of Fe(III) and 71.5% of Al(III) were complexed by oxalate and fluoride, respectively. ACIs could markedly change the speciation distributions of trace elements in cloud water by pH modification. The in-cloud scavenging of aerosol trace elements likely reached a peak after the first 2-3 h of cloud processing, with scavenging ratios between 0.12 for Cr and 0.57 for Pb. The increases of the trace element solubility (4-33%) were determined in both in-cloud aerosols and postcloud aerosols. These results indicated the significant importance of aerosol-cloud interactions to the evolution of trace elements during the first several cloud condensation/evaporation cycles.

WMO SDS-WAS NAMEE Regional Center: Towards continuous evaluation of dust models in Northern Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Basart, Sara; García-Castillo, Gerardo; Cuevas, Emilio; Terradellas, Enric

2016-04-01

One of the most important activities of the Regional Center for Northern Africa, Middle East and Europe of the World Meteorological Organization's Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System (WMO SDS-WAS, http://sds-was.aemet.es) is the dust model intercomparison and forecast evaluation, which is deemed an indispensable service to the users and an invaluable tool to assess model skills. Currently, the Regional Center collects daily dust forecasts from models run by nine partners (BSC, ECMWF, NASA, NCEP, SEEVCCC, EMA, CNR-ISAC, NOA and UK Met Office). A multi-model ensemble has also been set up in an effort to provide added-value products to the users. The first problem to address the dust model evaluation is the scarcity of suitable routine observations near the Sahara, the world's largest source of mineral dust. The present contribution presents preliminary results of dust model evaluation using new observational datasets. The current routine evaluation of dust predictions is focused on total-column dust optical depth (DOD) and uses remote-sensing retrievals from sun-photometric (AERONET) and satellite (MODIS) measurements. However, most users of dust forecasts are interested in the concentration near the surface (in the air we breathe) rather than in the total column content. Therefore, evaluation of the predicted surface concentration is also necessary. In this context, the initiative of the African Monsoon Interdisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) International Program to establish permanent measuring stations in the Sahel is extremely important. Tapered Element Oscillating Microbalance (TEOM) monitors continuously record PM10 in M'Bour (Senegal); Cinzana (Mali) and Banizoumbou (Niger). This surface model evaluation is complemented with the PM10 observation from the Air Quality Control and Monitoring Network (AQCMN) of the Canary Islands (Spain). The region, located in the sub-tropical Eastern Atlantic (roughly 100 km west of the Moroccan coast), is

Impact of the 4 April 2014 Saharan dust outbreak on the photovoltaic power generation in Germany

Science.gov (United States)

Rieger, Daniel; Steiner, Andrea; Bachmann, Vanessa; Gasch, Philipp; Förstner, Jochen; Deetz, Konrad; Vogel, Bernhard; Vogel, Heike

2017-11-01

The importance for reliable forecasts of incoming solar radiation is growing rapidly, especially for those countries with an increasing share in photovoltaic (PV) power production. The reliability of solar radiation forecasts depends mainly on the representation of clouds and aerosol particles absorbing and scattering radiation. Especially under extreme aerosol conditions, numerical weather prediction has a systematic bias in the solar radiation forecast. This is caused by the design of numerical weather prediction models, which typically account for the direct impact of aerosol particles on radiation using climatological mean values and the impact on cloud formation assuming spatially and temporally homogeneous aerosol concentrations. These model deficiencies in turn can lead to significant economic losses under extreme aerosol conditions. For Germany, Saharan dust outbreaks occurring 5 to 15 times per year for several days each are prominent examples for conditions, under which numerical weather prediction struggles to forecast solar radiation adequately. We investigate the impact of mineral dust on the PV-power generation during a Saharan dust outbreak over Germany on 4 April 2014 using ICON-ART, which is the current German numerical weather prediction model extended by modules accounting for trace substances and related feedback processes. We find an overall improvement of the PV-power forecast for 65 % of the pyranometer stations in Germany. Of the nine stations with very high differences between forecast and measurement, eight stations show an improvement. Furthermore, we quantify the direct radiative effects and indirect radiative effects of mineral dust. For our study, direct effects account for 64 %, indirect effects for 20 % and synergistic interaction effects for 16 % of the differences between the forecast including mineral dust radiative effects and the forecast neglecting mineral dust.

The Use of Pre-Storm Boundary-Layer Baroclinicity in Determining and Operationally Implementing the Atlantic Surface Cyclone Intensification Index

Science.gov (United States)

Cione, Joseph; Pietrafes, Leonard J.

The lateral motion of the Gulf Stream off the eastern seaboard of the United States during the winter season can act to dramatically enhance the low-level baroclinicity within the coastal zone during periods of offshore cold advection. The ralative close proximity of the Gulf Stream current off the mid-Atlantic coast can result in the rapid and intense destabilization of the marine atmospheric boundary layer directly above and shoreward of the Gulf Stream within this region. This airmass modification period often precedes either wintertime coastal cyclogenesis or the cyclonic re-development of existing mid-latitude cyclones. A climatological study investigating the relationship between the severity of the pre-storm, cold advection period and subsequent cyclogenic intensification was undertaken by Cione et al. in 1993. Findings from this study illustrate that the thermal structure of the continental airmass as well as the position of the Gulf Stream front relative to land during the pre-storm period (i.e., 24-48 h prior to the initial cyclonic intensification) are linked to the observed rate of surface cyclonic deepening for storms that either advected into or initially developed within the Carolina-southeast Virginia offshore coastal zone. It is a major objective of this research to test the potential operational utility of this pre-storm low level baroclinic linkage to subsequent cyclogenesis in an actual National Weather Service (NWS) coastal winter storm forecast setting.The ability to produce coastal surface cyclone intensity forecasts recently became available to North Carolina State University researchers and NWS forecasters. This statistical forecast guidance utilizes regression relationships derived from a nine-season (January 1982-April 1990), 116-storm study conducted previously. During the period between February 1994 and February 1996, the Atlantic Surface Cyclone Intensification Index (ASCII) was successfully implemented in an operational setting by

Assessment of nitrogen oxide emission for designing boilers fired with coal dust

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kotler, V.R.; Gusev, L.N.; Babii, V.I.

1983-09-01

A method for forecasting emission of nitrogen oxides from steam boilers fired with coal is described. The method produces accurate results when nitrogen oxide emission from furnaces with straight-flow burners and turbulent-type burners fired with coal dusts is forecast. Oxides formed by decomposition of chemical compounds in coal (so-called 'fuel' nitrogen oxides) and nitrogen oxides formed by oxidation of molecular nitrogen by atomic oxygen (so-called 'thermal' nitrogen oxides) are evaluated. Zones in which the two types of nitrogen oxide are formed in flames are characterized. Factors which influence formation of nitrogen oxides in a furnace are evaluated: excess air, flue gas recirculation, design of a furnace and burners, movement of air and coal dust mixture in a furnace, temperature, methods for coal dust preparation, coal dust properties. Equations for forecasting emission of nitrogen oxides from furnaces are derived. Nomograms for easy calculation of emission are also given. Examples of using the method for forecasting emission of nitrogen oxides from furnaces fired with coal from the Kuzbass, the Donbass and Ehkibastuz are discussed. Comparisons of emission of nitrogen oxides calculated on the basis of the method and emission determined experimentally show that forecasting accuracy is high and errors do not exceed 10%. 5 references.

Simulation of Flash-Flood-Producing Storm Events in Saudi Arabia Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

KAUST Repository

Deng, Liping

2015-05-01

The challenges of monitoring and forecasting flash-flood-producing storm events in data-sparse and arid regions are explored using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model (version 3.5) in conjunction with a range of available satellite, in situ, and reanalysis data. Here, we focus on characterizing the initial synoptic features and examining the impact of model parameterization and resolution on the reproduction of a number of flood-producing rainfall events that occurred over the western Saudi Arabian city of Jeddah. Analysis from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim) data suggests that mesoscale convective systems associated with strong moisture convergence ahead of a trough were the major initial features for the occurrence of these intense rain events. The WRF Model was able to simulate the heavy rainfall, with driving convective processes well characterized by a high-resolution cloud-resolving model. The use of higher (1 km vs 5 km) resolution along the Jeddah coastline favors the simulation of local convective systems and adds value to the simulation of heavy rainfall, especially for deep-convection-related extreme values. At the 5-km resolution, corresponding to an intermediate study domain, simulation without a cumulus scheme led to the formation of deeper convective systems and enhanced rainfall around Jeddah, illustrating the need for careful model scheme selection in this transition resolution. In analysis of multiple nested WRF simulations (25, 5, and 1 km), localized volume and intensity of heavy rainfall together with the duration of rainstorms within the Jeddah catchment area were captured reasonably well, although there was evidence of some displacements of rainstorm events.

Seasonal Contribution of Mineral Dust and Otlher Major Components to Particulate Matter at Two Remote Sites in Central Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Dust storms are significant contributors to ambient levels of particulate matter (PM) in many areas of the world. Central Asia, an area that is relatively understudied in this regard, is anticipated to be affected by dust storms due to its proximity to several major deserts that ...

The Development of Storm Surge Ensemble Prediction System and Case Study of Typhoon Meranti in 2016

Science.gov (United States)

Tsai, Y. L.; Wu, T. R.; Terng, C. T.; Chu, C. H.

2017-12-01

Taiwan is under the threat of storm surge and associated inundation, which is located at a potentially severe storm generation zone. The use of ensemble prediction can help forecasters to know the characteristic of storm surge under the uncertainty of track and intensity. In addition, it can help the deterministic forecasting. In this study, the kernel of ensemble prediction system is based on COMCOT-SURGE (COrnell Multi-grid COupled Tsunami Model - Storm Surge). COMCOT-SURGE solves nonlinear shallow water equations in Open Ocean and coastal regions with the nested-grid scheme and adopts wet-dry-cell treatment to calculate potential inundation area. In order to consider tide-surge interaction, the global TPXO 7.1 tide model provides the tidal boundary conditions. After a series of validations and case studies, COMCOT-SURGE has become an official operating system of Central Weather Bureau (CWB) in Taiwan. In this study, the strongest typhoon in 2016, Typhoon Meranti, is chosen as a case study. We adopt twenty ensemble members from CWB WRF Ensemble Prediction System (CWB WEPS), which differs from parameters of microphysics, boundary layer, cumulus, and surface. From box-and-whisker results, maximum observed storm surges were located in the interval of the first and third quartile at more than 70 % gauge locations, e.g. Toucheng, Chengkung, and Jiangjyun. In conclusion, the ensemble prediction can effectively help forecasters to predict storm surge especially under the uncertainty of storm track and intensity

DMS photochemistry during the Asian dust-storm period in the Spring of 2001: model simulations vs. field observations.

Science.gov (United States)

Shon, Zang-Ho; Kim, Ki-Hyun; Swan, Hilton; Lee, Gangwoong; Kim, Yoo-Keun

2005-01-01

This study examines the local/regional DMS oxidation chemistry on Jeju Island (33.17 degrees N, 126.10 degrees E) during the Asian dust-storm (ADS) period of April 2001. Three ADS events were observed during the periods of April 10-12, 13-14, and 25-26, respectively. For comparative purposes, a non-Asian-dust-storm (NADS) period was also considered in this study, which represents the entire measurement periods in April except the ADS events. The atmospheric concentrations of DMS and SO2 were measured at a ground station on Jeju Island, Korea, as part of the ACE-Asia intensive operation. DMS (means of 34-52 pptv) and SO2 (means of 0.96-1.14 ppbv) levels measured during the ADS period were higher than those (mean of 0.45 ppbv) during the NADS period. The enhanced DMS levels during the ADS period were likely due to the increase in DMS flux under reduced oxidant levels (OH and NO3). SO2 levels between the two contrasting periods were affected sensitively by some factors such as air mass origins. The diurnal variation patterns of DMS observed during the two periods were largely different from those seen in the background environment (e.g., the marine boundary layer (MBL)). In contrast to the MBL, the maximum DMS value during the ADS period was seen in the late afternoon at about sunset; this reversed pattern appears to be regulated by certain factors (e.g., enhanced NO3 oxidation). The sea-to-air fluxes of DMS between the ADS and NADS periods were calculated based on the mass-balance photochemical-modeling approach; their results were clearly distinguished with the values of 4.4 and 2.4 micromole m(-2) day(-1), respectively. This study confirmed that the contribution of DMS oxidation to observed SO2 levels on Jeju Island was not significant during our study period regardless of ADS or NADS periods.

Size-segregated fluxes of mineral dust from a desert area of northern China by eddy covariance

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G. Fratini

2007-06-01

Full Text Available Mineral dust emission accounts for a substantial portion of particles present in the troposphere. It is emitted mostly from desert areas, mainly through intense storm episodes. The aim of this work was to quantify size-segregated fluxes of mineral dust particles emitted during storm events occurring in desert areas of northern China (Alashan desert, Inner Mongolia, known to act as one of the strongest sources of mineral dust particles in the Asian continent. Long-range transport of mineral dust emitted in this area is responsible for the high particle concentrations reached in densely populated areas, including the city of Beijing. Based on a theoretical analysis, an eddy covariance system was built to get size-segregated fluxes of mineral dust particles with optical diameters ranging between 0.26 and 7.00 µm. The system was optimised to measure fluxes under intense storm event conditions. It was tested in two sites located in the Chinese portion of the Gobi desert. During the field campaign, an intense wind erosion event, classified as a "weak dust storm", was recorded in one of them. Data obtained during this event indicate that particle number fluxes were dominated by the finer fraction, whereas in terms of mass, coarser particle accounted for the largest portion. It was found that during the storm event, ratios of size-segregated particle mass fluxes remained substantially constant and a simple parameterization of particle emission from total mass fluxes was possible. A strong correlation was also found between particle mass fluxes and the friction velocity. This relationship is extremely useful to investigate mechanisms of particle formation by wind erosion.

Using NASA EOS in the Arabian and Saharan Deserts to Examine Dust Particle Size and Spectral Signature of Aerosols

Science.gov (United States)

Brenton, J. C.; Keeton, T.; Barrick, B.; Cowart, K.; Cooksey, K.; Florence, V.; Herdy, C.; Luvall, J. C.; Vasquez, S.

2012-12-01

Exposure to high concentrations of airborne particulate matter can have adverse effects on the human respiratory system. Ground-based studies conducted in Iraq have revealed the presence of potential human pathogens in airborne dust. According to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), airborne particulate matter below 2.5μm (PM2.5) can cause long-term damage to the human respiratory system. Given the relatively high incidence of new-onset respiratory disorders experienced by US service members deployed to Iraq, this research offers a new glimpse into how satellite remote sensing can be applied to questions related to human health. NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) can be used to determine spectral characteristics of dust particles, the depth of dust plumes, as well as dust particle sizes. Comparing dust particle size from the Sahara and Arabian Deserts gives insight into the composition and atmospheric transport characteristics of dust from each desert. With the use of NASA SeaWiFS DeepBlue Aerosol, dust particle sizes were estimated using Angström exponent. Brightness Temperature Difference (BTD) equation was used to determine the distribution of particle sizes, the area of the dust storm, and whether silicate minerals were present in the dust. The Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on Terra satellite was utilized in calculating BTD. Minimal research has been conducted on the spectral characteristics of airborne dust in the Arabian and Sahara Deserts. Mineral composition of a dust storm that occurred 17 April 2008 near Baghdad was determined using imaging spectrometer data from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory Spectral Library and EO-1 Hyperion data. Mineralogy of this dust storm was subsequently compared to that of a dust storm that occurred over the Bodélé Depression in the Sahara Desert on 7 June 2003.

An Exploration of Wind Stress Calculation Techniques in Hurricane Storm Surge Modeling

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Kyra M. Bryant

2016-09-01

Full Text Available As hurricanes continue to threaten coastal communities, accurate storm surge forecasting remains a global priority. Achieving a reliable storm surge prediction necessitates accurate hurricane intensity and wind field information. The wind field must be converted to wind stress, which represents the air-sea momentum flux component required in storm surge and other oceanic models. This conversion requires a multiplicative drag coefficient for the air density and wind speed to represent the air-sea momentum exchange at a given location. Air density is a known parameter and wind speed is a forecasted variable, whereas the drag coefficient is calculated using an empirical correlation. The correlation’s accuracy has brewed a controversy of its own for more than half a century. This review paper examines the lineage of drag coefficient correlations and their acceptance among scientists.

Incorporating the Wind Erosion Prediction System (WEPS) Into a Regional Air Quality Modeling System for the Pacific Northwest

Science.gov (United States)

In the Pacific Northwest, wind storms intermittently cause massive dust events that reduce visibility along roadways and jeopardize health as a result of extremely high concentrations of PM10 (particulate matter less than or equal to 10µm in diameter). An early warning dust forecast system is needed...

ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index for water vapor transport: A forecast tool for atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitation

Science.gov (United States)

Lavers, David A.; Pappenberger, Florian; Richardson, David S.; Zsoter, Ervin

2016-11-01

In winter, heavy precipitation and floods along the west coasts of midlatitude continents are largely caused by intense water vapor transport (integrated vapor transport (IVT)) within the atmospheric river of extratropical cyclones. This study builds on previous findings that showed that forecasts of IVT have higher predictability than precipitation, by applying and evaluating the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) for IVT in ensemble forecasts during three winters across Europe. We show that the IVT EFI is more able (than the precipitation EFI) to capture extreme precipitation in forecast week 2 during forecasts initialized in a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase; conversely, the precipitation EFI is better during the negative NAO phase and at shorter leads. An IVT EFI example for storm Desmond in December 2015 highlights its potential to identify upcoming hydrometeorological extremes, which may prove useful to the user and forecasting communities.

The Continuous Monitoring of Desert Dust using an Infrared-based Dust Detection and Retrieval Method

Science.gov (United States)

Duda, David P.; Minnis, Patrick; Trepte, Qing; Sun-Mack, Sunny

2006-01-01

Airborne dust and sand are significant aerosol sources that can impact the atmospheric and surface radiation budgets. Because airborne dust affects visibility and air quality, it is desirable to monitor the location and concentrations of this aerosol for transportation and public health. Although aerosol retrievals have been derived for many years using visible and near-infrared reflectance measurements from satellites, the detection and quantification of dust from these channels is problematic over bright surfaces, or when dust concentrations are large. In addition, aerosol retrievals from polar orbiting satellites lack the ability to monitor the progression and sources of dust storms. As a complement to current aerosol dust retrieval algorithms, multi-spectral thermal infrared (8-12 micron) data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the Meteosat-8 Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) are used in the development of a prototype dust detection method and dust property retrieval that can monitor the progress of Saharan dust fields continuously, both night and day. The dust detection method is incorporated into the processing of CERES (Clouds and the Earth s Radiant Energy System) aerosol retrievals to produce dust property retrievals. Both MODIS (from Terra and Aqua) and SEVERI data are used to develop the method.

STORM3: a new flood forecast management and monitoring system in accordance with the recent Italian national directive

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Burastero

2005-01-01

Full Text Available The effectiveness of alert systems for civil protection purposes, defined as the ability to minimize the level of risk in a region subjected to an imminent flood event, strongly depends on availability and exploitability of information. It also depends on technical expertise and the ability to easily manage the civil protection actions through the organization into standardized procedures. Hydro-geologic and hydraulic risk estimation, based on the combination of different technical issues (in this case meteorological, hydro-geological, hydraulic matters, but also socio-economic ones, requires the integration between quasi-static and time-varying information within the same operative platform. Beside the real-time data exchange, a Decision Support System must provide tools which enable knowledge sharing among the civil protection centres. Moreover, due to the amount and heterogeneity of information, quality procedures become necessary to handle all forecasting and monitoring routines within operative centres, according to the latest national directive. In Italy procedures on the civil protection matter have been condensed into the Prime Minister's Directive (27 February 2004. STORM3, an innovative management and monitoring System for real-time flood forecasting and warning, takes in the Directive, supporting the operator step by step within the different phases of civil protection activities.

Investigation of dust formations in the atmosphere on the basis of satellite observations

Science.gov (United States)

Ivanchik, M. V.; Kliushnikov, S. I.; Krovotyntsev, V. A.; Serebrennikov, A. N.

1984-06-01

A method for the computer processing of space photographs is described which makes it possible to determine dust formations in the atmosphere. Dust formations are identified according to the character of contrast-density distribution. Processed images are compared with actinometric data collected in a dust storm area (Conakry, Guinea, May 1983).

Physical and Dynamical Linkages Between Lightning Jumps and Storm Conceptual Models

Science.gov (United States)

Schultz, Christopher J.; Carey, Lawrence D.; Schultz, Elise V.; Blakeslee, Richard J.; Goodman, Steven J.

2014-01-01

The presence and rates of total lightning are both correlated to and physically dependent upon storm updraft strength, mixed phase precipitation volume and the size of the charging zone. The updraft modulates the ingredients necessary for electrification within a thunderstorm, while the updraft also plays a critical role in the development of severe and hazardous weather. Therefore utilizing this relationship, the monitoring of lightning rates and jumps provides an additional piece of information on the evolution of a thunderstorm, more often than not, at higher temporal resolution than current operational radar systems. This correlation is the basis for the total lightning jump algorithm that has been developed in recent years. Currently, the lightning jump algorithm is being tested in two separate but important efforts. Schultz et al. (2014; this conference) is exploring the transition of the algorithm from its research based formulation to a fully objective algorithm that includes storm tracking, Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) Proxy data and the lightning jump algorithm. Chronis et al. (2014) provides context for the transition to current operational forecasting using lightning mapping array based products. However, what remains is an end-to-end physical and dynamical basis for coupling total lightning flash rates to severe storm manifestation, so the forecaster has a reason beyond simple correlation to utilize the lightning jump algorithm within their severe storm conceptual models. Therefore, the physical basis for the lightning jump algorithm in relation to severe storm dynamics and microphysics is a key component that must be further explored. Many radar studies have examined flash rates and their relationship to updraft strength, updraft volume, precipitation-sized ice mass, etc.; however, their relationship specifically to lightning jumps is fragmented within the literature. Thus the goal of this study is to use multiple Doppler and polarimetric

Properties and effects of dust particles suspended in the martian atmosphere

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pollack, J.B.; Colburn, D.S.; Flasar, M.; Kahn, R.; Carlston, C.E.; Pidek, D.

1979-01-01

Direct measurements of the optical depth above the two Viking landers are reported for a period of covering the summer, fall, and winter seasons in the northern hemisphere, a time period during which two global dust storms occurred. The optical depth had a value of about 1 just before the onset of each storm; it increased very rapidly, on a time scale of a few days, to peak values of about 3 and 6 with the arrival of the first and second storms, respectively; and its steadily decreased shortly thereafter (> or approx. = few days to few weeks) for both storms, with the decay occurring more rapidly during the initial period of decay. We have also carried out further analyses of observations of the sky brightness made with the lander cameras during the summer season to obtain improved estimates of other dust particle parameters, including the cross section weighted mean particle radius, several shape factors, and the imaginary indices of refraction. These results have been used to define the radiative properties of the suspended dust particles at solar wavelenths. The derived radiative properties of the dust were incorporated into a 1D radiative convective model. Satisfactory agreement with the temperature structure determined during the descent of the landers to the surface. Is achieved when allowance is made for the effects of vertical motions induced by large scale atmospheric dynamics. The diurnal temperature variations predicted by the 1D calculations for the observed optical depths are also in crude agreement with values inferred from orbiter and lander measurements. The 1D model predicts that the diurnal temperature change and daily mean temperature, averaged over the entire atmospheric vertical column, steadily increase as the optical depth of the dust increases to a value of several, and then subsequently change little

Storm Identification, Tracking and Forecasting Using High-Resolution Images of Short-Range X-Band Radar

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Sajid Shah

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Rain nowcasting is an essential part of weather monitoring. It plays a vital role in human life, ranging from advanced warning systems to scheduling open air events and tourism. A nowcasting system can be divided into three fundamental steps, i.e., storm identification, tracking and nowcasting. The main contribution of this work is to propose procedures for each step of the rain nowcasting tool and to objectively evaluate the performances of every step, focusing on two-dimension data collected from short-range X-band radars installed in different parts of Italy. This work presents the solution of previously unsolved problems in storm identification: first, the selection of suitable thresholds for storm identification; second, the isolation of false merger (loosely-connected storms; and third, the identification of a high reflectivity sub-storm within a large storm. The storm tracking step of the existing tools, such as TITANand SCIT, use only up to two storm attributes, i.e., center of mass and area. It is possible to use more attributes for tracking. Furthermore, the contribution of each attribute in storm tracking is yet to be investigated. This paper presents a novel procedure called SALdEdA (structure, amplitude, location, eccentricity difference and areal difference for storm tracking. This work also presents the contribution of each component of SALdEdA in storm tracking. The second order exponential smoothing strategy is used for storm nowcasting, where the growth and decay of each variable of interest is considered to be linear. We evaluated the major steps of our method. The adopted techniques for automatic threshold calculation are assessed with a 97% goodness. False merger and sub-storms within a cluster of storms are successfully handled. Furthermore, the storm tracking procedure produced good results with an accuracy of 99.34% for convective events and 100% for stratiform events.

Analysis and Forecast of a Tornadic Thunderstorm Using Multiple Doppler Radar Data, 3DVAR, and ARPS Model

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Edward Natenberg

2013-01-01

Full Text Available A three-dimensional variational (3DVAR assimilation technique developed for a convective-scale NWP model—advanced regional prediction system (ARPS—is used to analyze the 8 May 2003, Moore/Midwest City, Oklahoma tornadic supercell thunderstorm. Previous studies on this case used only one or two radars that are very close to this storm. However, three other radars observed the upper-level part of the storm. Because these three radars are located far away from the targeted storm, they were overlooked by previous studies. High-frequency intermittent 3DVAR analyses are performed using the data from five radars that together provide a more complete picture of this storm. The analyses capture a well-defined mesocyclone in the midlevels and the wind circulation associated with a hook-shaped echo. The analyses produced through this technique are used as initial conditions for a 40-minute storm-scale forecast. The impact of multiple radars on a short-term NWP forecast is most evident when compared to forecasts using data from only one and two radars. The use of all radars provides the best forecast in which a strong low-level mesocyclone develops and tracks in close proximity to the actual tornado damage path.

Simulating southwestern U.S. desert dust influences on supercell thunderstorms

Science.gov (United States)

Lerach, David G.; Cotton, William R.

2018-05-01

Three-dimensional numerical simulations were performed to evaluate potential southwestern U.S. dust indirect microphysical and direct radiative impacts on a real severe storms outbreak. Increased solar absorption within the dust plume led to modest increases in pre-storm atmospheric stability at low levels, resulting in weaker convective updrafts and less widespread precipitation. Dust microphysical impacts on convection were minor in comparison, due in part to the lofted dust concentrations being relatively few in number when compared to the background (non-dust) aerosol population. While dust preferentially serving as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) versus giant CCN had opposing effects on warm rain production, both scenarios resulted in ample supercooled water and subsequent glaciation aloft, yielding larger graupel and hail. Associated latent heating from condensation and freezing contributed little to overall updraft invigoration. With reduced rain production overall, the simulations that included dust effects experienced slightly reduced grid-cumulative precipitation and notably warmer and spatially smaller cold pools. Dust serving as ice nucleating particles did not appear to play a significant role. The presence of dust ultimately reduced the number of supercells produced but allowed for supercell evolution characterized by consistently higher values of relative vertical vorticity within simulated mesocyclones. Dust radiative and microphysical effects were relatively small in magnitude when compared to those from altering the background convective available potential energy and vertical wind shear. It is difficult to generalize such findings from a single event, however, due to a number of case-specific environmental factors. These include the nature of the low-level moisture advection and characteristics of the background aerosol distribution.

Use of Remote Sensing Data to Enhance NWS Storm Damage Toolkit

Science.gov (United States)

Jedlove, Gary J.; Molthan, Andrew L.; White, Kris; Burks, Jason; Stellman, Keith; Smith, Mathew

2012-01-01

In the wake of a natural disaster such as a tornado, the National Weather Service (NWS) is required to provide a very detailed and timely storm damage assessment to local, state and federal homeland security officials. The Post ]Storm Data Acquisition (PSDA) procedure involves the acquisition and assembly of highly perishable data necessary for accurate post ]event analysis and potential integration into a geographic information system (GIS) available to its end users and associated decision makers. Information gained from the process also enables the NWS to increase its knowledge of extreme events, learn how to better use existing equipment, improve NWS warning programs, and provide accurate storm intensity and damage information to the news media and academia. To help collect and manage all of this information, forecasters in NWS Southern Region are currently developing a Storm Damage Assessment Toolkit (SDAT), which incorporates GIS ]capable phones and laptops into the PSDA process by tagging damage photography, location, and storm damage details with GPS coordinates for aggregation within the GIS database. However, this tool alone does not fully integrate radar and ground based storm damage reports nor does it help to identify undetected storm damage regions. In many cases, information on storm damage location (beginning and ending points, swath width, etc.) from ground surveys is incomplete or difficult to obtain. Geographic factors (terrain and limited roads in rural areas), manpower limitations, and other logistical constraints often prevent the gathering of a comprehensive picture of tornado or hail damage, and may allow damage regions to go undetected. Molthan et al. (2011) have shown that high resolution satellite data can provide additional valuable information on storm damage tracks to augment this database. This paper presents initial development to integrate satellitederived damage track information into the SDAT for near real ]time use by forecasters

An operational integrated short-term warning solution for solar radiation storms: introducing the Forecasting Solar Particle Events and Flares (FORSPEF) system

Science.gov (United States)

Anastasiadis, Anastasios; Sandberg, Ingmar; Papaioannou, Athanasios; Georgoulis, Manolis; Tziotziou, Kostas; Jiggens, Piers; Hilgers, Alain

2015-04-01

We present a novel integrated prediction system, of both solar flares and solar energetic particle (SEP) events, which is in place to provide short-term warnings for hazardous solar radiation storms. FORSPEF system provides forecasting of solar eruptive events, such as solar flares with a projection to coronal mass ejections (CMEs) (occurrence and velocity) and the likelihood of occurrence of a SEP event. It also provides nowcasting of SEP events based on actual solar flare and CME near real-time alerts, as well as SEP characteristics (peak flux, fluence, rise time, duration) per parent solar event. The prediction of solar flares relies on a morphological method which is based on the sophisticated derivation of the effective connected magnetic field strength (Beff) of potentially flaring active-region (AR) magnetic configurations and it utilizes analysis of a large number of AR magnetograms. For the prediction of SEP events a new reductive statistical method has been implemented based on a newly constructed database of solar flares, CMEs and SEP events that covers a large time span from 1984-2013. The method is based on flare location (longitude), flare size (maximum soft X-ray intensity), and the occurrence (or not) of a CME. Warnings are issued for all > C1.0 soft X-ray flares. The warning time in the forecasting scheme extends to 24 hours with a refresh rate of 3 hours while the respective warning time for the nowcasting scheme depends on the availability of the near real-time data and falls between 15-20 minutes. We discuss the modules of the FORSPEF system, their interconnection and the operational set up. The dual approach in the development of FORPSEF (i.e. forecasting and nowcasting scheme) permits the refinement of predictions upon the availability of new data that characterize changes on the Sun and the interplanetary space, while the combined usage of solar flare and SEP forecasting methods upgrades FORSPEF to an integrated forecasting solution. This

Adaptive mesh refinement for storm surge

KAUST Repository

Mandli, Kyle T.; Dawson, Clint N.

2014-01-01

An approach to utilizing adaptive mesh refinement algorithms for storm surge modeling is proposed. Currently numerical models exist that can resolve the details of coastal regions but are often too costly to be run in an ensemble forecasting framework without significant computing resources. The application of adaptive mesh refinement algorithms substantially lowers the computational cost of a storm surge model run while retaining much of the desired coastal resolution. The approach presented is implemented in the GeoClaw framework and compared to ADCIRC for Hurricane Ike along with observed tide gauge data and the computational cost of each model run. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.

Adaptive mesh refinement for storm surge

KAUST Repository

Mandli, Kyle T.

2014-03-01

An approach to utilizing adaptive mesh refinement algorithms for storm surge modeling is proposed. Currently numerical models exist that can resolve the details of coastal regions but are often too costly to be run in an ensemble forecasting framework without significant computing resources. The application of adaptive mesh refinement algorithms substantially lowers the computational cost of a storm surge model run while retaining much of the desired coastal resolution. The approach presented is implemented in the GeoClaw framework and compared to ADCIRC for Hurricane Ike along with observed tide gauge data and the computational cost of each model run. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.

Advances in Disaster Modeling, Simulation and Visualization for Sandstorm Risk Management in North China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hang Lei

2012-05-01

Full Text Available Dust storms in North China result in high concentrations of airborne dust particles, which cause detrimental effects on human health as well as social and economic losses and environmental degradation. To investigate the impact of land surface processes on dust storms, we simulate two dust storm events in North China during spring 2002 using two versions of a dust storm prediction system developed by the Institute for Atmospheric Physics (IAP in Beijing, China. The primary difference between the IAP Sandstorm Prediction System (IAPS 1.0 and more recent version (IAPS 2.0 is the land surface modeling. IAPS 1.0 is based on the Oregon State University (OSU land surface model, whereas the latest version of the dust storm prediction (IAPS 2.0 uses NOAH land surface schemes for land surface modeling within a meteorological model, MM5. This work investigates whether the improved land surface modeling affects modeling of sandstorms. It is shown that an integrated sandstorm management system can be used to aid the following tasks: ensure sandstorm monitoring and warning; incorporate weather forecasts; ascertain the risk of a sandstorm disaster; integrate multiple technologies (for example, GIS, remote sensing, and information processing technology; track the progress of the storm in real-time; exhibit flexibility, accuracy and reliability (by using multiple sources of data, including in-situ meteorological observations; and monitor PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 dust concentrations in airborne dustfalls. The results indicate that with the new land surface scheme, the simulation of soil moisture is greatly improved, leading to a better estimate of the threshold frictional velocity, a key parameter for the estimating surface dust emissions. In this study, we also discuss specific mechanisms by which land surface processes affect dust storm modeling and make recommendations for further improvements to numerical dust storm simulations.

Current understanding of magnetic storms: Storm-substorm relationships

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kamide, Y.; Gonzalez, W.D.; Baumjohann, W.; Daglis, I.A.; Grande, M.; Joselyn, J.A.; Singer, H.J.; McPherron, R.L.; Phillips, J.L.; Reeves, E.G.; Rostoker, G.; Sharma, A.S.; Tsurutani, B.T.

1998-01-01

storm-time ring current. An apparently new controversy regarding the relative importance of the two processes is thus created. It is important to identify the role of substorm occurrence in the large-scale enhancement of magnetospheric convection driven by solar wind electric fields. (3) Numerical schemes for predicting geomagnetic activity indices on the basis of solar/solar wind/interplanetary magnetic field parameters continue to be upgraded, ensuring reliable techniques for forecasting magnetic storms under real-time conditions. There is a need to evaluate the prediction capability of geomagnetic indices on the basis of physical processes that occur during storm time substorms. (4) It is crucial to differentiate between storms and nonstorm time substorms in terms of energy transfer/conversion processes, i.e., mechanical energy from the solar wind, electromagnetic energy in the magnetotail, and again, mechanical energy of particles in the plasma sheet, ring current, and aurora. To help answer the question of the role of substorms in energizing ring current particles, it is crucial to find efficient magnetospheric processes that heat ions up to some minimal energies so that they can have an effect on the strength of the storm time ring current. (5) The question of whether the Dst index is an accurate and effective measure of the storm time ring-current is also controversial. In particular, it is demonstrated that the dipolarization effect associated with substorm expansion

Dust: Small-scale processes with global consequences

Science.gov (United States)

Okin, G.S.; Bullard, J.E.; Reynolds, R.L.; Ballantine, J.-A.C.; Schepanski, K.; Todd, M.C.; Belnap, J.; Baddock, M.C.; Gill, T.E.; Miller, M.E.

2011-01-01

Desert dust, both modern and ancient, is a critical component of the Earth system. Atmospheric dust has important effects on climate by changing the atmospheric radiation budget, while deposited dust influences biogeochemical cycles in the oceans and on land. Dust deposited on snow and ice decreases its albedo, allowing more light to be trapped at the surface, thus increasing the rate of melt and influencing energy budgets and river discharge. In the human realm, dust contributes to the transport of allergens and pathogens and when inhaled can cause or aggravate respiratory diseases. Dust storms also represent a significant hazard to road and air travel. Because it affects so many Earth processes, dust is studied from a variety of perspectives and at multiple scales, with various disciplines examining emissions for different purposes using disparate strategies. Thus, the range of objectives in studying dust, as well as experimental approaches and results, has not yet been systematically integrated. Key research questions surrounding the production and sources of dust could benefit from improved collaboration among different research communities. These questions involve the origins of dust, factors that influence dust production and emission, and methods through which dust can be monitored. ?? Author(s) 2011.

Impact of the 4 April 2014 Saharan dust outbreak on the photovoltaic power generation in Germany

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. Rieger

2017-11-01

Full Text Available The importance for reliable forecasts of incoming solar radiation is growing rapidly, especially for those countries with an increasing share in photovoltaic (PV power production. The reliability of solar radiation forecasts depends mainly on the representation of clouds and aerosol particles absorbing and scattering radiation. Especially under extreme aerosol conditions, numerical weather prediction has a systematic bias in the solar radiation forecast. This is caused by the design of numerical weather prediction models, which typically account for the direct impact of aerosol particles on radiation using climatological mean values and the impact on cloud formation assuming spatially and temporally homogeneous aerosol concentrations. These model deficiencies in turn can lead to significant economic losses under extreme aerosol conditions. For Germany, Saharan dust outbreaks occurring 5 to 15 times per year for several days each are prominent examples for conditions, under which numerical weather prediction struggles to forecast solar radiation adequately. We investigate the impact of mineral dust on the PV-power generation during a Saharan dust outbreak over Germany on 4 April 2014 using ICON-ART, which is the current German numerical weather prediction model extended by modules accounting for trace substances and related feedback processes. We find an overall improvement of the PV-power forecast for 65 % of the pyranometer stations in Germany. Of the nine stations with very high differences between forecast and measurement, eight stations show an improvement. Furthermore, we quantify the direct radiative effects and indirect radiative effects of mineral dust. For our study, direct effects account for 64 %, indirect effects for 20 % and synergistic interaction effects for 16 % of the differences between the forecast including mineral dust radiative effects and the forecast neglecting mineral dust.

Two-sample Kalman filter and system error modelling for storm surge forecasting

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sumihar, J.H.

2009-01-01

Two directions for improving the accuracy of sea level forecast are investigated in this study. The first direction seeks to improve the forecast accuracy of astronomical tide component. Here, a method is applied to analyze and forecast the remaining periodic components of harmonic analysis

Fine-scale application of WRF-CAM5 during a dust storm episode over East Asia: Sensitivity to grid resolutions and aerosol activation parameterizations

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Kai; Zhang, Yang; Zhang, Xin; Fan, Jiwen; Leung, L. Ruby; Zheng, Bo; Zhang, Qiang; He, Kebin

2018-03-01

An advanced online-coupled meteorology and chemistry model WRF-CAM5 has been applied to East Asia using triple-nested domains at different grid resolutions (i.e., 36-, 12-, and 4-km) to simulate a severe dust storm period in spring 2010. Analyses are performed to evaluate the model performance and investigate model sensitivity to different horizontal grid sizes and aerosol activation parameterizations and to examine aerosol-cloud interactions and their impacts on the air quality. A comprehensive model evaluation of the baseline simulations using the default Abdul-Razzak and Ghan (AG) aerosol activation scheme shows that the model can well predict major meteorological variables such as 2-m temperature (T2), water vapor mixing ratio (Q2), 10-m wind speed (WS10) and wind direction (WD10), and shortwave and longwave radiation across different resolutions with domain-average normalized mean biases typically within ±15%. The baseline simulations also show moderate biases for precipitation and moderate-to-large underpredictions for other major variables associated with aerosol-cloud interactions such as cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC), cloud optical thickness (COT), and cloud liquid water path (LWP) due to uncertainties or limitations in the aerosol-cloud treatments. The model performance is sensitive to grid resolutions, especially for surface meteorological variables such as T2, Q2, WS10, and WD10, with the performance generally improving at finer grid resolutions for those variables. Comparison of the sensitivity simulations with an alternative (i.e., the Fountoukis and Nenes (FN) series scheme) and the default (i.e., AG scheme) aerosol activation scheme shows that the former predicts larger values for cloud variables such as CDNC and COT across all grid resolutions and improves the overall domain-average model performance for many cloud/radiation variables and precipitation. Sensitivity simulations using the FN series scheme also have large impacts on

Dust observations by PFS on Mars Express

Science.gov (United States)

Zasova, L. V.; Formisano, V.; Moroz, V. I.; Grassi, D.; Ignatiev, N. I.; Blecka, M. I.; Maturilli, A.; Palomba, E.; Piccioni, G.; Pfs Team

Dust is always present in the Martian atmosphere with opacity, which changes from values below 0.1 (at 9 μ m) up to several units during the dust storms. From the thermal IR (LW channel of PFS) the dust opacity is retrieved in a self consistent way together with the temperature profile from the same spectrum A preliminary investigation along the orbit, which comes through Hellas, shows that the value of dust opacity anticorrelates with surface altitude. From -70 to +25 of latitude the vertical dust distribution follows the exponential low with the scale of 12 km, which corresponds to the gaseous scale height near noon and indicates for well mixed condition. The dust opacity, corresponding to the zero surface altitude, is found of 0.25+-0.05. More detailed investigations of all available data will be presented, including analysis of both short- and long- wavelength spectra of PFS.

Biological response to coastal upwelling and dust deposition in the area off Northwest Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Ohde, T.; Siegel, H.

2010-05-01

Nutrient supply in the area off Northwest Africa is mainly regulated by two processes, coastal upwelling and deposition of Saharan dust. In the present study, both processes were analyzed and evaluated by different methods, including cross-correlation, multiple correlation, and event statistics, using remotely sensed proxies of the period from 2000 to 2008 to investigate their influence on the marine environment. The remotely sensed chlorophyll- a concentration was used as a proxy for the phytoplankton biomass stimulated by nutrient supply into the euphotic zone from deeper water layers and from the atmosphere. Satellite-derived alongshore wind stress and sea-surface temperature were applied as proxies for the strength and reflection of coastal upwelling processes. The westward wind and the dust component of the aerosol optical depth describe the transport direction of atmospheric dust and the atmospheric dust column load. Alongshore wind stress and induced upwelling processes were most significantly responsible for the surface chlorophyll- a variability, accounting for about 24% of the total variance, mainly in the winter and spring due to the strong north-easterly trade winds. The remotely sensed proxies allowed determination of time lags between biological response and its forcing processes. A delay of up to 16 days in the surface chlorophyll- a concentration due to the alongshore wind stress was determined in the northern winter and spring. Although input of atmospheric iron by dust storms can stimulate new phytoplankton production in the study area, only 5% of the surface chlorophyll- a variability could be ascribed to the dust component in the aerosol optical depth. All strong desert storms were identified by an event statistics in the time period from 2000 to 2008. The 57 strong storms were studied in relation to their biological response. Six events were clearly detected in which an increase of chlorophyll- a was caused by Saharan dust input and not by

Enhanced outage prediction modeling for strong extratropical storms and hurricanes in the Northeastern United States

Science.gov (United States)

Cerrai, D.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Wanik, D. W.; Bhuiyan, M. A. E.; Zhang, X.; Yang, J.; Astitha, M.; Frediani, M. E.; Schwartz, C. S.; Pardakhti, M.

2016-12-01

The overwhelming majority of human activities need reliable electric power. Severe weather events can cause power outages, resulting in substantial economic losses and a temporary worsening of living conditions. Accurate prediction of these events and the communication of forecasted impacts to the affected utilities is necessary for efficient emergency preparedness and mitigation. The University of Connecticut Outage Prediction Model (OPM) uses regression tree models, high-resolution weather reanalysis and real-time weather forecasts (WRF and NCAR ensemble), airport station data, vegetation and electric grid characteristics and historical outage data to forecast the number and spatial distribution of outages in the power distribution grid located within dense vegetation. Recent OPM improvements consist of improved storm classification and addition of new predictive weather-related variables and are demonstrated using a leave-one-storm-out cross-validation based on 130 severe extratropical storms and two hurricanes (Sandy and Irene) in the Northeast US. We show that it is possible to predict the number of trouble spots causing outages in the electric grid with a median absolute percentage error as low as 27% for some storm types, and at most around 40%, in a scale that varies between four orders of magnitude, from few outages to tens of thousands. This outage information can be communicated to the electric utility to manage allocation of crews and equipment and minimize the recovery time for an upcoming storm hazard.

Assimilation of MODIS Dark Target and Deep Blue Observations in the Dust Aerosol Component of NMMB-MONARCH version 1.0

Science.gov (United States)

Di Tomaso, Enza; Schutgens, Nick A. J.; Jorba, Oriol; Perez Garcia-Pando, Carlos

2017-01-01

A data assimilation capability has been built for the NMMB-MONARCH chemical weather prediction system, with a focus on mineral dust, a prominent type of aerosol. An ensemble-based Kalman filter technique (namely the local ensemble transform Kalman filter - LETKF) has been utilized to optimally combine model background and satellite retrievals. Our implementation of the ensemble is based on known uncertainties in the physical parametrizations of the dust emission scheme. Experiments showed that MODIS AOD retrievals using the Dark Target algorithm can help NMMB-MONARCH to better characterize atmospheric dust. This is particularly true for the analysis of the dust outflow in the Sahel region and over the African Atlantic coast. The assimilation of MODIS AOD retrievals based on the Deep Blue algorithm has a further positive impact in the analysis downwind from the strongest dust sources of the Sahara and in the Arabian Peninsula. An analysis-initialized forecast performs better (lower forecast error and higher correlation with observations) than a standard forecast, with the exception of underestimating dust in the long-range Atlantic transport and degradation of the temporal evolution of dust in some regions after day 1. Particularly relevant is the improved forecast over the Sahara throughout the forecast range thanks to the assimilation of Deep Blue retrievals over areas not easily covered by other observational datasets.The present study on mineral dust is a first step towards data assimilation with a complete aerosol prediction system that includes multiple aerosol species.

Changing statistics of storms in the North Atlantic?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Storch, H. von; Guddal, J.; Iden, K.A.; Jonsson, T.; Perlwitz, J.; Reistad, M.; Ronde, J. de; Schmidt, H.; Zorita, E.

1993-01-01

Problems in the present discussion about increasing storminess in the North Atlantic area are discusesd. Observational data so far available do not indicate a change in the storm statistics. Output from climate models points to an itensified storm track in the North Atlantic, but because of the limited skill of present-day climate models in simulating high-frequency variability and regional details any such 'forecast' has to be considered with caution. A downscaling procedure which relates large-scale time-mean aspects of the state of the atmosphere and ocean to the local statistics of storms is proposed to reconstruct past variations of high-frequency variability in the atmosphere (storminess) and in the sea state (wave statistics). First results are presented. (orig.)

The Use of a Statistical Model of Storm Surge as a Bias Correction for Dynamical Surge Models and its Applicability along the U.S. East Coast

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Haydee Salmun

2015-02-01

Full Text Available The present study extends the applicability of a statistical model for prediction of storm surge originally developed for The Battery, NY in two ways: I. the statistical model is used as a biascorrection for operationally produced dynamical surge forecasts, and II. the statistical model is applied to the region of the east coast of the U.S. susceptible to winter extratropical storms. The statistical prediction is based on a regression relation between the “storm maximum” storm surge and the storm composite significant wave height predicted ata nearby location. The use of the statistical surge prediction as an alternative bias correction for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA operational storm surge forecasts is shownhere to be statistically equivalent to the existing bias correctiontechnique and potentially applicable for much longer forecast lead times as well as for storm surge climate prediction. Applying the statistical model to locations along the east coast shows that the regression relation can be “trained” with data from tide gauge measurements and near-shore buoys along the coast from North Carolina to Maine, and that it provides accurate estimates of storm surge.

Synergistic Use of Remote Sensing and Modeling for Tracing Dust Storms in the Mediterranean

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. G. Kaskaoutis

2012-01-01

Full Text Available This study focuses on the detection of the dust source region and monitoring of the transport of the dust plume from its primary outflow to final deposition. The application area is the Sahara desert and the eastern Mediterranean, where two dust events occurred during the period 4–6 February 2009, an unusual event for a winter period. The Aqua-MODIS and OMI observations clearly define the spatial distribution of the dust plumes, while the CALIPSO observations of total attenuated backscatter (TAB at 532 nm, depolarization ratio (DR, and attenuated color ratio (1064/532 nm on 5 February 2009 provide a clear view and vertical structure of the dust-laden layer. The dust source region is defined to be near the Chad-Niger-Libyan borders, using satellite observations and model (DREAM output. This dust plume is vertically extended up to 2.5 km and is observed as a mass plume of dust from surface level to that altitude, where the vertical variation of TAB (0.002 to 0.2 and DR (0.2–0.5 implies dust-laden layer with non-spherical particles. CALIPSO profiles show that after the dust plume reached at its highest level, the dust particles start to be deposited over the Mediterranean and the initial dust plume was strongly attenuated, while features of dust were limited below about 1–1.5 km for latitudes northern of ~36° (Greek territory.

Ensemble Streamflow Forecast Improvements in NYC's Operations Support Tool

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, L.; Weiss, W. J.; Porter, J.; Schaake, J. C.; Day, G. N.; Sheer, D. P.

2013-12-01

Like most other water supply utilities, New York City's Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) has operational challenges associated with drought and wet weather events. During drought conditions, DEP must maintain water supply reliability to 9 million customers as well as meet environmental release requirements downstream of its reservoirs. During and after wet weather events, DEP must maintain turbidity compliance in its unfiltered Catskill and Delaware reservoir systems and minimize spills to mitigate downstream flooding. Proactive reservoir management - such as release restrictions to prepare for a drought or preventative drawdown in advance of a large storm - can alleviate negative impacts associated with extreme events. It is important for water managers to understand the risks associated with proactive operations so unintended consequences such as endangering water supply reliability with excessive drawdown prior to a storm event are minimized. Probabilistic hydrologic forecasts are a critical tool in quantifying these risks and allow water managers to make more informed operational decisions. DEP has recently completed development of an Operations Support Tool (OST) that integrates ensemble streamflow forecasts, real-time observations, and a reservoir system operations model into a user-friendly graphical interface that allows its water managers to take robust and defensible proactive measures in the face of challenging system conditions. Since initial development of OST was first presented at the 2011 AGU Fall Meeting, significant improvements have been made to the forecast system. First, the monthly AR1 forecasts ('Hirsch method') were upgraded with a generalized linear model (GLM) utilizing historical daily correlations ('Extended Hirsch method' or 'eHirsch'). The development of eHirsch forecasts improved predictive skill over the Hirsch method in the first week to a month from the forecast date and produced more realistic hydrographs on the tail

I Got Them Dust Bowl Blues: Wind Erosion in the Music of the Southern Great Plains

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, J. A.

2017-12-01

This paper deals with the role of wind erosion and blowing dust on the music of the Dust Bowl region, a portion of the southern Great Plains of the United States. A defining characteristic of the region is dust storms, and in the 1930s, severe dust storms created dramatic images that came to symbolize all of the economic, social and environmental hardships suffered by the people during the 1930s. The music of the time, by Woody Guthrie and others, suggested that the region was being destroyed, never to recover. The region was resilient, however, and in recent decades, dust has been depicted in songs either as an adversity to be endured or simply as a normal part of life in the area. It may be that blowing dust has become a defining characteristic of the region because of a somewhat warped sense of pride in living in an often-difficult environment.

Biological effects of desert dust in respiratory epithelial cells and a murine model.

Science.gov (United States)

Abstract As a result of the challenge of recent dust storms to public health, we tested the postulate that desert dust collected in the southwestern United States could impact a biological effect in respiratory epithelial cells and an animal model. Two samples of surface sedime...

Long-term dust aerosol production from natural sources in Iceland.

Science.gov (United States)

Dagsson-Waldhauserova, Pavla; Arnalds, Olafur; Olafsson, Haraldur

2017-02-01

Iceland is a volcanic island in the North Atlantic Ocean with maritime climate. In spite of moist climate, large areas are with limited vegetation cover where >40% of Iceland is classified with considerable to very severe erosion and 21% of Iceland is volcanic sandy deserts. Not only do natural emissions from these sources influenced by strong winds affect regional air quality in Iceland ("Reykjavik haze"), but dust particles are transported over the Atlantic ocean and Arctic Ocean >1000 km at times. The aim of this paper is to place Icelandic dust production area into international perspective, present long-term frequency of dust storm events in northeast Iceland, and estimate dust aerosol concentrations during reported dust events. Meteorological observations with dust presence codes and related visibility were used to identify the frequency and the long-term changes in dust production in northeast Iceland. There were annually 16.4 days on average with reported dust observations on weather stations within the northeastern erosion area, indicating extreme dust plume activity and erosion within the northeastern deserts, even though the area is covered with snow during the major part of winter. During the 2000s the highest occurrence of dust events in six decades was reported. We have measured saltation and Aeolian transport during dust/volcanic ash storms in Iceland, which give some of the most intense wind erosion events ever measured. Icelandic dust affects the ecosystems over much of Iceland and causes regional haze. It is likely to affect the ecosystems of the oceans around Iceland, and it brings dust that lowers the albedo of the Icelandic glaciers, increasing melt-off due to global warming. The study indicates that Icelandic dust may contribute to the Arctic air pollution. Long-term records of meteorological dust observations from Northeast Iceland indicate the frequency of dust events from Icelandic deserts. The research involves a 60-year period and

The Effect of Asian Dust Aerosols on Cloud Properties and Radiative Forcing from MODIS and CERES

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Jianping; Minnis, Patrick; Lin, Bing; Wang, Tianhe; Yi, Yuhong; Hu, Yongxiang; Sun-Mack, Sunny; Ayers, Kirk

2005-01-01

The effects of dust storms on cloud properties and radiative forcing are analyzed over northwestern China from April 2001 to June 2004 using data collected by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instruments on the Aqua and Terra satellites. On average, ice cloud effective particle diameter, optical depth and ice water path of the cirrus clouds under dust polluted conditions are 11%, 32.8%, and 42% less, respectively, than those derived from ice clouds in dust-free atmospheric environments. The humidity differences are larger in the dusty region than in the dust-free region, and may be caused by removal of moisture by wet dust precipitation. Due to changes in cloud microphysics, the instantaneous net radiative forcing is reduced from -71.2 W/m2 for dust contaminated clouds to -182.7 W/m2 for dust-free clouds. The reduced cooling effects of dusts may lead to a net warming of 1 W/m2, which, if confirmed, would be the strongest aerosol forcing during later winter and early spring dust storm seasons over the studied region.

A Numerical Simulation of Extratropical Storm Surge and Hydrodynamic Response in the Bohai Sea

OpenAIRE

Ding, Yumei; Ding, Lei

2014-01-01

A hindcast of typical extratropical storm surge occurring in the Bohai Sea in October 2003 is performed using a three-dimensional (3D) Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model (FVCOM). The storm surge model is forced by 10 m winds obtained from the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model simulation. It is shown that the simulated storm surge and tides agree well with the observations. The nonlinear interaction between the surge and astronomical tides, the spatial distribution of the max...

Detection and Prediction of Hail Storms in Satellite Imagery using Deep Learning

Science.gov (United States)

Pullman, M.; Gurung, I.; Ramachandran, R.; Maskey, M.

2017-12-01

Natural hazards, such as damaging hail storms, dramatically disrupt both industry and agriculture, having significant socio-economic impacts in the United States. In 2016, hail was responsible for 3.5 billion and 23 million dollars in damage to property and crops, respectively, making it the second costliest 2016 weather phenomenon in the United States. The destructive nature and high cost of hail storms has driven research into the development of more accurate hail-prediction algorithms in an effort to mitigate societal impacts. Recently, weather forecasting efforts have turned to deep learning neural networks because neural networks can more effectively model complex, nonlinear, dynamical phenomenon that exist in large datasets through multiple stages of transformation and representation. In an effort to improve hail-prediction techniques, we propose a deep learning technique that leverages satellite imagery to detect and predict the occurrence of hail storms. The technique is applied to satellite imagery from 2006 to 2016 for the contiguous United States and incorporates hail reports obtained from the National Center for Environmental Information Storm Events Database for training and validation purposes. In this presentation, we describe a novel approach to predicting hail via a neural network model that creates a large labeled dataset of hail storms, the accuracy and results of the model, and its applications for improving hail forecasting.

Space weather and dangerous phenomena on the Earth: principles of great geomagnetic storms forcasting by online cosmic ray data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. I. Dorman

2005-11-01

Full Text Available According to NOAA space weather scales, geomagnetic storms of scales G5 (3-h index of geomagnetic activity Kp=9, G4 (Kp=8 and G3 (Kp=7 are dangerous for satellites, aircrafts, and even for technology on the ground (influence on power systems, on spacecraft operations, on HF radio-communications and others. We show on the basis of statistical data, that these geomagnetic storms, mostly accompanied by cosmic ray (CR Forbush-decreases, are also dangerous for people's health on spacecraft and on the ground (increasing the rate of myocardial infarctions, brain strokes and car accident road traumas. To prevent these serious damages it is very important to forecast dangerous geomagnetic storms. Here we consider the principles of using CR measurements for this aim: to forecast at least 10-15h before the sudden commencement of great geomagnetic storms accompanied by Forbush-decreases, by using neutron monitor muon telescope worldwide network online hourly data. We show that for this forecast one may use the following features of CR intensity variations connected with geomagnetic storms accompanied by Forbush-decreases: 1 CR pre-increase, 2 CR pre-decrease, 3 CR fluctuations, 4 change in the 3-D CR anisotropy.

Regional and climatic controls on seasonal dust deposition in the southwestern U.S.

Science.gov (United States)

Reheis, M.C.; Urban, F.E.

2011-01-01

Vertical dust deposition rates (dust flux) are a complex response to the interaction of seasonal precipitation, wind, changes in plant cover and land use, dust source type, and local vs. distant dust emission in the southwestern U.S. Seasonal dust flux in the Mojave-southern Great Basin (MSGB) deserts, measured from 1999 to 2008, is similar in summer-fall and winter-spring, and antecedent precipitation tends to suppress dust flux in winter-spring. In contrast, dust flux in the eastern Colorado Plateau (ECP) region is much larger in summer-fall than in winter-spring, and twice as large as in the MSGB. ECP dust is related to wind speed, and in the winter-spring to antecedent moisture. Higher summer dust flux in the ECP is likely due to gustier winds and runoff during monsoonal storms when temperature is also higher. Source types in the MSGB and land use in the ECP have important effects on seasonal dust flux. In the MSGB, wet playas produce salt-rich dust during wetter seasons, whereas antecedent and current moisture suppress dust emission from alluvial and dry-playa sources during winter-spring. In the ECP under drought conditions, dust flux at a grazed-and-plowed site increased greatly, and also increased at three annualized, previously grazed sites. Dust fluxes remained relatively consistent at ungrazed and currently grazed sites that have maintained perennial vegetation cover. Under predicted scenarios of future climate change, these results suggest that an increase in summer storms may increase dust flux in both areas, but resultant effects will depend on source type, land use, and vegetation cover. ?? 2011.

Dust emission: small-scale processes with global consequences

Science.gov (United States)

Okin, Gregory S.; Bullard, Joanna E.; Reynolds, Richard L.; Ballantine, John-Andrew C.; Schepanski, Kerstin; Todd, Martin C.; Belnap, Jayne; Baddock, Matthew C.; Gill, Thomas E.; Miller, Mark E.

2011-01-01

Desert dust, both modern and ancient, is a critical component of the Earth system. Atmospheric dust has important effects on climate by changing the atmospheric radiation budget, while deposited dust influences biogeochemical cycles in the oceans and on land. Dust deposited on snow and ice decreases its albedo, allowing more light to be trapped at the surface, thus increasing the rate of melt and influencing energy budgets and river discharge. In the human realm, dust contributes to the transport of allergens and pathogens and when inhaled can cause or aggravate respiratory diseases. Dust storms also represent a significant hazard to road and air travel. Because it affects so many Earth processes, dust is studied from a variety of perspectives and at multiple scales, with various disciplines examining emissions for different purposes using disparate strategies. Thus, the range of objectives in studying dust, as well as experimental approaches and results, has not yet been systematically integrated. Key research questions surrounding the production and sources of dust could benefit from improved collaboration among different research communities. These questions involve the origins of dust, factors that influence dust production and emission, and methods through which dust can be monitored.

Developing empirical lightning cessation forecast guidance for the Kennedy Space Center

Science.gov (United States)

Stano, Geoffrey T.

The Kennedy Space Center in east Central Florida is one of the few locations in the country that issues lightning advisories. These forecasts are vital to the daily operations of the Space Center and take on even greater significance during launch operations. The U.S. Air Force's 45th Weather Squadron (45WS), who provides forecasts for the Space Center, has a good record of forecasting the initiation of lightning near their locations of special concern. However, the remaining problem is knowing when to cancel a lightning advisory. Without specific scientific guidelines detailing cessation activity, the Weather Squadron must keep advisories in place longer than necessary to ensure the safety of personnel and equipment. This unnecessary advisory time costs the Space Center millions of dollars in lost manpower each year. This research presents storm and environmental characteristics associated with lightning cessation that then are utilized to create lightning cessation guidelines for isolated thunderstorms for use by the 45WS during the warm season months of May through September. The research uses data from the Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR) network at the Kennedy Space Center, which can observe intra-cloud and portions of cloud-to-ground lightning strikes. Supporting data from the Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS), radar observations from the Melbourne WSR-88D, and Cape Canaveral morning radiosonde launches also are included. Characteristics of 116 thunderstorms comprising our dataset are presented. Most of these characteristics are based on LDAR-derived spark and flash data and have not been described previously. In particular, the first lightning activity is quantified as either cloud-to-ground (CG) or intra-cloud (IC). Only 10% of the storms in this research are found to initiate with a CG strike. Conversely, only 16% of the storms end with a CG strike. Another characteristic is the average horizontal extent of all the flashes

On the improvement of wave and storm surge hindcasts by downscaled atmospheric forcing: application to historical storms

Science.gov (United States)

Bresson, Émilie; Arbogast, Philippe; Aouf, Lotfi; Paradis, Denis; Kortcheva, Anna; Bogatchev, Andrey; Galabov, Vasko; Dimitrova, Marieta; Morvan, Guillaume; Ohl, Patrick; Tsenova, Boryana; Rabier, Florence

2018-04-01

Winds, waves and storm surges can inflict severe damage in coastal areas. In order to improve preparedness for such events, a better understanding of storm-induced coastal flooding episodes is necessary. To this end, this paper highlights the use of atmospheric downscaling techniques in order to improve wave and storm surge hindcasts. The downscaling techniques used here are based on existing European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalyses (ERA-20C, ERA-40 and ERA-Interim). The results show that the 10 km resolution data forcing provided by a downscaled atmospheric model gives a better wave and surge hindcast compared to using data directly from the reanalysis. Furthermore, the analysis of the most extreme mid-latitude cyclones indicates that a four-dimensional blending approach improves the whole process, as it assimilates more small-scale processes in the initial conditions. Our approach has been successfully applied to ERA-20C (the 20th century reanalysis).

High resolution modelling of wind fields for optimization of empirical storm flood predictions

Science.gov (United States)

Brecht, B.; Frank, H.

2014-05-01

High resolution wind fields are necessary to predict the occurrence of storm flood events and their magnitude. Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) created a catalogue of detailed wind fields of 39 historical storms at the German North Sea coast from the years 1962 to 2011. The catalogue is used by the Niedersächsisches Landesamt für Wasser-, Küsten- und Naturschutz (NLWKN) coastal research center to improve their flood alert service. The computation of wind fields and other meteorological parameters is based on the model chain of the DWD going from the global model GME via the limited-area model COSMO with 7 km mesh size down to a COSMO model with 2.2 km. To obtain an improved analysis COSMO runs are nudged against observations for the historical storms. The global model GME is initialised from the ERA reanalysis data of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). As expected, we got better congruency with observations of the model for the nudging runs than the normal forecast runs for most storms. We also found during the verification process that different land use data sets could influence the results considerably.

Storm Surge and Tide Interaction: A Complete Paradigm

Science.gov (United States)

Horsburgh, K.

2014-12-01

Estimates show that in 2005, in the largest 136 coastal cities, there were 40 million people and 3,000 billion of assets exposed to 1 in 100 year coastal flood events. Mean sea level rise will increase this exposure to 150 million people and 35,000 billion of assets by 2070. Any further change in the statistics of flood frequency or severity would impact severely on economic and social systems. It is therefore crucial to understand the physical drivers of extreme storm surges, and to have confidence in datasets used for extreme sea level statistics. Much previous research has focussed on the process of tide-surge interaction, and it is now widely accepted that the physical basis of tide-surge interaction is that a phase shift of the tidal signal represents the effect of the surge on the tide. The second aspect of interaction is that shallow water momentum considerations imply that differing tidal states should modulate surge generation: wind stress should have greater surge-generating potential on lower tides. We present results from a storm surge model of the European shelf that demonstrate that tidal range does have an effect on the surges generated. The cycle-integrated effects of wind stress (i.e. the skew surge) are greater when tidal range is low. Our results contradict the absence of any such correlation in tide gauge records. This suggests that whilst the modulating effect of the tide on the skew surge (the time-independent difference between peak prediction and observations) is significant, the difference between individual storms is dominant. This implies that forecasting systems must predict salient detail of the most intense storms. A further implication is that flood forecasting models need to simulate tides with acceptable accuracy at all coastal locations. We extend our model analysis to show that the same modulation of storm surges (by tidal conditions) applies to tropical cyclones. We conduct simulations using a mature operational storm surge model

Evolution of aerosol chemistry in Xi'an, inland China, during the dust storm period of 2013 - Part 1: Sources, chemical forms and formation mechanisms of nitrate and sulfate

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, G. H.; Cheng, C. L.; Huang, Y.; Tao, J.; Ren, Y. Q.; Wu, F.; Meng, J. J.; Li, J. J.; Cheng, Y. T.; Cao, J. J.; Liu, S. X.; Zhang, T.; Zhang, R.; Chen, Y. B.

2014-11-01

A total suspended particulate (TSP) sample was collected hourly in Xi'an, an inland megacity of China near the Loess Plateau, during a dust storm event of 2013 (9 March 18:00-12 March 10:00 LT), along with a size-resolved aerosol sampling and an online measurement of PM2.5. The TSP and size-resolved samples were determined for elemental carbon (EC), organic carbon (OC), water-soluble organic carbon (WSOC) and nitrogen (WSON), inorganic ions and elements to investigate chemistry evolution of dust particles. Hourly concentrations of Cl-, NO3-, SO42-, Na+ and Ca2+ in the TSP samples reached up to 34, 12, 180, 72 and 28 μg m-3, respectively, when dust peak arrived over Xi'an. Chemical compositions of the TSP samples showed that during the whole observation period NH4+ and NO3- were linearly correlated with each other (r2=0.76) with a molar ratio of 1 : 1, while SO42- and Cl- were well correlated with Na+, Ca2+, Mg2+ and K+ (r2 > 0.85). Size distributions of NH4+ and NO3- presented a same pattern, which dominated in the coarse mode (> 2.1 μm) during the event and predominated in the fine mode (hours, but both exhibited two equivalent peaks in both the fine and the coarse modes during the non-event, due to the fine-mode accumulations of secondarily produced SO42- and biomass-burning-emitted Cl- and the coarse-mode enrichments of urban soil-derived SO42- and Cl-. Linear fit regression analysis further indicated that SO42- and Cl- in the dust samples possibly exist as Na2SO4, CaSO4 and NaCl, which directly originated from Gobi desert surface soil, while NH4+ and NO3- in the dust samples exist as NH4NO3. We propose a mechanism to explain these observations in which aqueous phase of dust particle surface is formed via uptake of water vapor by hygroscopic salts such as Na2SO4 and NaCl, followed by heterogeneous formation of nitrate on the liquid phase and subsequent absorption of ammonia. Our data indicate that 54 ± 20% and 60 ± 23% of NH4+ and NO3- during the dust period

Electrodynamic Dust Shield for Solar Panels on Mars

Science.gov (United States)

Calle, C. I.; Buhler, C. R.; Mantovani, J. G.; Clements S.; Chen, A.; Mazumder, M. K.; Biris, A. S.; Nowicki, A. W.

2004-01-01

The Materials Adherence Experiment on the Mars Pathfinder mission measured an obscuration of the solar arrays due to dust deposition at a rate of about 0.2 8% per day. It was estimated that settling dust may cause degradation in performance of a solar panel of between 22% and 89% over the course of two years [1, 2]. These results were obtained without the presence of a global dust storm. Several types of adherence forces keep dust particles attached to surfaces. The most widely discussed adherence force is the electrostatic force. Laboratory experiments [3] as well as indirect evidence from the Wheel Abrasion Experiment on Pathfinder [4] indicate that it is very likely that the particles suspended in the Martian atmosphere are electrostatically charged.

Red Dawn: Characterizing Iron Oxide Minerals in Atmospheric Dust

Science.gov (United States)

Yauk, K.; Ottenfeld, C. F.; Reynolds, R. L.; Goldstein, H.; Cattle, S.; Berquo, T. S.; Moskowitz, B. M.

2012-12-01

Atmospheric dust is comprised of many components including small amounts of iron oxide minerals. Although the iron oxides make up a small weight percent of the bulk dust, they are important because of their roles in ocean fertilization, controls on climate, and as a potential health hazard to humans. Here we report on the iron oxide mineralogy in dust from a large dust storm, dubbed Red Dawn, which engulfed eastern Australia along a 3000 km front on 23 September 2009. Red Dawn originated from the lower Lake Eyre Basin of South Australia, western New South Wales (NSW) and southwestern Queensland and was the worst dust storm to have hit the city of Sydney in more than 60 years. Dust samples were collected from various locations across eastern Australia (Lake Cowal, Orange, Hornsby, Sydney) following the Red Dawn event. Our dust collection provides a good opportunity to study the physical and mineralogical properties of iron oxides from Red Dawn using a combination of reflectance spectroscopy, Mössbauer spectroscopy (MB), and magnetic measurements. Magnetization measurements from 20-400 K reveal that magnetite/maghemite, hematite and goethite are present in all samples with magnetite occurring in trace amounts (effects (d< 100 nm). Finally, we compared reflectance with a magnetic parameter (hard isothermal remanent magnetization, HIRM) for ferric oxide abundance to assess the degree to which ferric oxide in these samples might absorb solar radiation. In samples for which both parameters were obtained, HIRM and average reflectance over the visible wavelengths are correlated as a group (r2=0.24). These results indicate that the ferric oxide minerals in Red Dawn dust absorb solar radiation. Much of this ferric oxide occurs likely as grain coatings of nanohematite and nanogoethite, thereby providing high surface area to enhance absorption of solar radiation.

Storm Surge Modeling of Typhoon Haiyan at the Naval Oceanographic Office Using Delft3D

Science.gov (United States)

Gilligan, M. J.; Lovering, J. L.

2016-02-01

The Naval Oceanographic Office provides estimates of the rise in sea level along the coast due to storm surge associated with tropical cyclones, typhoons, and hurricanes. Storm surge modeling and prediction helps the US Navy by providing a threat assessment tool to help protect Navy assets and provide support for humanitarian assistance/disaster relief efforts. Recent advancements in our modeling capabilities include the use of the Delft3D modeling suite as part of a Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) developed Coastal Surge Inundation Prediction System (CSIPS). Model simulations were performed on Typhoon Haiyan, which made landfall in the Philippines in November 2013. Comparisons of model simulations using forecast and hindcast track data highlight the importance of accurate storm track information for storm surge predictions. Model runs using the forecast track prediction and hindcast track information give maximum storm surge elevations of 4 meters and 6.1 meters, respectively. Model results for the hindcast simulation were compared with data published by the JSCE-PICE Joint survey for locations in San Pedro Bay (SPB) and on the Eastern Samar Peninsula (ESP). In SPB, where wind-induced set-up predominates, the model run using the forecast track predicted surge within 2 meters in 38% of survey locations and within 3 meters in 59% of the locations. When the hindcast track was used, the model predicted within 2 meters in 77% of the locations and within 3 meters in 95% of the locations. The model was unable to predict the high surge reported along the ESP produced by infragravity wave-induced set-up, which is not simulated in the model. Additional modeling capabilities incorporating infragravity waves are required to predict storm surge accurately along open coasts with steep bathymetric slopes, such as those seen in island arcs.

Revisiting the latent heat nudging scheme for the rainfall assimilation of a simulated convective storm

Science.gov (United States)

Leuenberger, D.; Rossa, A.

2007-12-01

Next-generation, operational, high-resolution numerical weather prediction models require economical assimilation schemes for radar data. In the present study we evaluate and characterise the latent heat nudging (LHN) rainfall assimilation scheme within a meso-γ scale NWP model in the framework of identical twin simulations of an idealised supercell storm. Consideration is given to the model’s dynamical response to the forcing as well as to the sensitivity of the LHN scheme to uncertainty in the observations and the environment. The results indicate that the LHN scheme is well able to capture the dynamical structure and the right rainfall amount of the storm in a perfect environment. This holds true even in degraded environments but a number of important issues arise. In particular, changes in the low-level humidity field are found to affect mainly the precipitation amplitude during the assimilation with a fast adaptation of the storm to the system dynamics determined by the environment during the free forecast. A constant bias in the environmental wind field, on the other hand, has the potential to render a successful assimilation with the LHN scheme difficult, as the velocity of the forcing is not consistent with the system propagation speed determined by the wind. If the rainfall forcing moves too fast, the system propagation is supported and the assimilated storm and forecasts initialised therefrom develop properly. A too slow forcing, on the other hand, can decelerate the system and eventually disturb the system dynamics by decoupling the low-level moisture inflow from the main updrafts during the assimilation. This distortion is sustained in the free forecast. It has further been found that a sufficient temporal resolution of the rainfall input is crucial for the successful assimilation of a fast moving, coherent convective storm and that the LHN scheme, when applied to a convective storm, appears to necessitate a careful tuning.

Geomagnetic Dst index forecast based on IMF data only

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Pallocchia

2006-05-01

Full Text Available In the past years several operational Dst forecasting algorithms, based on both IMF and solar wind plasma parameters, have been developed and used. We describe an Artificial Neural Network (ANN algorithm which calculates the Dst index on the basis of IMF data only and discuss its performance for several individual storms. Moreover, we briefly comment on the physical grounds which allow the Dst forecasting based on IMF only.

Building Adjustable Pre-storm Reservoir Flood-control Release Rules

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Shun-Nien; Chang, Li-Chiu; Chang, Fi-John; Hsieh, Cheng-Daw

2017-04-01

Typhoons hit Taiwan several times every year, which could cause serious flood disasters. Because mountainous terrains and steep landforms can rapidly accelerate the speed of flood flow during typhoon events, rivers cannot be a stable source of water supply. Reservoirs become the most effective floodwater storage facilities for alleviating flood damages in Taiwan. The pre-storm flood-control release can significantly increase reservoir storage capacity available to store floodwaters for reducing downstream flood damage, while the uncertainties of total forecasted rainfalls are very high in different stages of an oncoming typhoon, which may cause the risk of water shortage in the future. This study proposes adjustable pre-storm reservoir flood-control release rules in three designed operating stages with various hydrological conditions in the Feitsui Reservoir, a pivot reservoir for water supply to Taipei metropolitan in Taiwan, not only to reduce the risk of reservoir flood control and downstream flooding but also to consider water supply. The three operating stages before an oncoming typhoon are defined upon the timings when: (1) typhoon news is issued (3-7days before typhoon hit); (2) the sea warning is issued (2-4 days before typhoon hit); and (3) the land warning is issued (1-2 days before typhoon hit). We simulate 95 historical typhoon events with 3000 initial water levels and build some pre-storm flood-control release rules to adjust the amount of pre-release based on the total forecasted rainfalls at different operating stages. A great number of simulations (68.4 millions) are conducted to extract their major consequences and then build the adjustable pre-storm reservoir flood-control release rules. Accordingly, given a total forecasted rainfall and a water level, reservoir decision makers can easily identify the corresponding rule to tell the amount of pre-release in any stage. The results show that the proposed adjustable pre-release rules can effectively

Predictability of tropical cyclone events on intraseasonal timescales with the ECMWF monthly forecast model

Science.gov (United States)

Elsberry, Russell L.; Jordan, Mary S.; Vitart, Frederic

2010-05-01

The objective of this study is to provide evidence of predictability on intraseasonal time scales (10-30 days) for western North Pacific tropical cyclone formation and subsequent tracks using the 51-member ECMWF 32-day forecasts made once a week from 5 June through 25 December 2008. Ensemble storms are defined by grouping ensemble member vortices whose positions are within a specified separation distance that is equal to 180 n mi at the initial forecast time t and increases linearly to 420 n mi at Day 14 and then is constant. The 12-h track segments are calculated with a Weighted-Mean Vector Motion technique in which the weighting factor is inversely proportional to the distance from the endpoint of the previous 12-h motion vector. Seventy-six percent of the ensemble storms had five or fewer member vortices. On average, the ensemble storms begin 2.5 days before the first entry of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) best-track file, tend to translate too slowly in the deep tropics, and persist for longer periods over land. A strict objective matching technique with the JTWC storms is combined with a second subjective procedure that is then applied to identify nearby ensemble storms that would indicate a greater likelihood of a tropical cyclone developing in that region with that track orientation. The ensemble storms identified in the ECMWF 32-day forecasts provided guidance on intraseasonal timescales of the formations and tracks of the three strongest typhoons and two other typhoons, but not for two early season typhoons and the late season Dolphin. Four strong tropical storms were predicted consistently over Week-1 through Week-4, as was one weak tropical storm. Two other weak tropical storms, three tropical cyclones that developed from precursor baroclinic systems, and three other tropical depressions were not predicted on intraseasonal timescales. At least for the strongest tropical cyclones during the peak season, the ECMWF 32-day ensemble provides

(dust, PM10 , and BC) using CHIMERE chemistry tra

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

storm); impact of change in soil-related parameters and meteorological input grid resolution on these .... events, for regional and global impact, forecasting and for analysis ...... lution and Climate Strategies – EC4MACS Issued by: INERIS ...

Temporal and spatial variations in sand and dust storm events in East Asia from 2007 to 2016: Relationships with surface conditions and climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

An, Linchang; Che, Huizheng; Xue, Min; Zhang, Tianhang; Wang, Hong; Wang, Yaqiang; Zhou, Chunhong; Zhao, Hujia; Gui, Ke; Zheng, Yu; Sun, Tianze; Liang, Yuanxin; Sun, Enwei; Zhang, Hengde; Zhang, Xiaoye

2018-08-15

We analyzed the frequency and intensity of sand and dust storms (SDSs) in East Asia from 2007 to 2016 using observational data from ground stations, numerical modeling, and vegetation indices obtained from both satellite and reanalysis data. The relationships of SDSs with surface conditions and the synoptic circulation pattern were also analyzed. The statistical analyses demonstrated that the number and intensity of SDS events recorded in spring during 2007 to 2016 showed a decreasing trend. The total number of spring SDSs decreased from at least ten events per year before 2011 to less than ten events per year after 2011. The overall average annual variation of the surface dust concentration in the main dust source regions decreased 33.24μg/m 3 (-1.75%) annually. The variation in the temperatures near and below the ground surface and the amount of precipitation and soil moisture all favored an improvement in vegetation coverage, which reduced the intensity and frequency of SDSs. The strong winds accompanying the influx of cold air from high latitudes showed a decreasing trend, leading to a decrease in the number of SDSs and playing a key role in the decadal decrease of SDSs. The decrease in the intensity of the polar vortex during study period was closely related to the decrease in the intensity and frequency of SDSs. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Improvements of Storm Surge Modelling in the Gulf of Venice with Satellite Data: The ESA Due Esurge-Venice Project

Science.gov (United States)

De Biasio, F.; Bajo, M.; Vignudelli, S.; Papa, A.; della Valle, A.; Umgiesser, G.; Donlon, C.; Zecchetto, S.

2016-08-01

Among the most detrimental natural phenomena, storm surges heavily endanger the environment, the economy and the everyday life of sea-side countries and coastal zones. Considering that 120.000.000 people live in the Mediterranean area, with additional 200.000.000 presences in Summer for tourism purposes, the correct prediction of storm surges is crucial to avoid fatalities and economic losses. Earth Observation (EO) can play an important role in operational storm surge forecasting, yet it is not widely diffused in the storm surge community. In 2011 the European Space Agency (ESA), through its Data User Element (DUE) programme, financed two projects aimed at encouraging the uptake of EO data in this sector: eSurge and eSurge-Venice (eSV). The former was intended to address the issues of a wider users' community, while the latter was focused on a restricted geographical area: the northern Adriatic Sea and the Gulf of Venice. Among the objectives of the two projects there were a number of storm surge hindcast experiments using satellite data, to demonstrate the improvements on the surge forecast brought by EO. We report here the results of the hindcast experiments of the eSV project. They were aimed to test the sensitivity of a storm surge model to a forcing wind field modified with scatterometer data in order to reduce the bias between simulated and observed winds. Hindcast experiments were also performed to test the response of the storm surge model to the assimilation, with a dual 4D-Var system, of satellite altimetry observations as model errors of the initial state of the sea surface level. Remarkable improvements on the storm surge forecast have been obtained for what concerns the modified model wind forcing. Encouraging results have been obtained also in the assimilation experiments.

Comments on "Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenetic Processes during SOP-3 NAMMA in the GEOS-5 Global Data Assimilation and Forecast System"

Science.gov (United States)

Braun, Scott A.

2010-01-01

Considerable attention has been given to the potential negative impacts of the Saharan air layer (SAL) in recent years. Researchers recently raised questions about the negative impacts of Dunion and Velden and other studies in terms of storms that reached at least tropical storm strength and suggested that the SAL was an intrinsic part of the tropical cyclone environment for both storms that weaken after formation and those that intensify. Braun also suggested that several incorrect assumptions underlie many of the studies on the negative impacts of the SAL, including assumptions that most low-to-midlevel dry tropical air is SAL air, that the SAL is dry throughout its depth, and that the proximity of the SAL to storms struggling to intensify implies some role in that struggle. The recent paper by Reale et al.(RL1) is an example of the problems inherent in some of these assumptions. In their paper, RL1 analyze a simulation from the Global Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) global model and describe an extensive tongue of warm, dry air that stretches southward from at least 30 deg N (the northern limit of their plots) and wraps into a low pressure system during the period 26-29 August 2006, suppressing convection and possibly development of the African easterly wave associated with that low pressure system. They attributed the warm, dry tongue to the SAL (i.e., heating of the air mass during passage over the Sahara and radiative warming of the dust layer). Whether it was their intention, the implication is that this entire feature is due solely to the SAL and not to other possible sources of dry air or warmth. In addition, they suggested that a cool tongue of air in the boundary layer located directly beneath the elevated warm, dry tongue (forming a thermal dipole) was possibly the result of reduced solar radiation caused by an overlying dust layer. They stated that "the cool anomaly in the lower levels does not have any plausible explanation relying only on transport

The DREAMS experiment flown on the ExoMars 2016 mission for the study of Martian environment during the dust storm season

Science.gov (United States)

Bettanini, C.; Esposito, R.; Debei, S.; Molfese, C.; Colombatti, G.; Aboudan, A.; Brucato, J. R.; Cortecchia, F.; Di Achille, G.; Guizzo, G. P.; Friso, E.; Ferri, F.; Marty, L.; Mennella, V.; Molinaro, R.; Schipani, P.; Silvestro, S.; Mugnuolo, R.; Pirrotta, S.; Marchetti, E.; Harri, A.-M.; Montmessin, F.; Wilson, C.; Arruego Rodriguez, I.; Abbaki, S.; Apestigue, V.; Bellucci, G.; Berthelier, J. J.; Calcutt, S. B.; Forget, F.; Genzer, M.; Gilbert, P.; Haukka, H.; Jimenez, J. J.; Jimenez, S.; Josset, J. L.; Karatekin, O.; Landis, G.; Lorenz, R.; Martinez, J.; Möhlmann, D.; Moirin, D.; Palomba, E.; Pateli, M.; Pommereau, J.-P.; Popa, C. I.; Rafkin, S.; Rannou, P.; Renno, N. O.; Schmidt, W.; Simoes, F.; Spiga, A.; Valero, F.; Vazquez, L.; Vivat, F.; Witasse, O.

2017-08-01

The DREAMS (Dust characterization, Risk assessment and Environment Analyser on the Martian Surface) experiment on Schiaparelli lander of ExoMars 2016 mission was an autonomous meteorological station designed to completely characterize the Martian atmosphere on surface, acquiring data not only on temperature, pressure, humidity, wind speed and direction, but also on solar irradiance, dust opacity and atmospheric electrification, to measure for the first time key parameters linked to hazard conditions for future manned explorations. Although with very limited mass and energy resources, DREAMS would be able to operate autonomously for at least two Martian days (sols) after landing in a very harsh environment as it was supposed to land on Mars during the dust storm season (October 2016 in Meridiani Planum) relying on its own power supply. ExoMars mission was successfully launched on 14th March 2016 and Schiaparelli entered the Mars atmosphere on October 20th beginning its 'six minutes of terror' journey to the surface. Unfortunately, some unexpected behavior during the parachuted descent caused an unrecoverable critical condition in navigation system of the lander driving to a destructive crash on the surface. The adverse sequence of events at 4 km altitude triggered the transition of the lander in surface operative mode, commanding switch on the DREAMS instrument, which was therefore able to correctly power on and send back housekeeping data. This proved the nominal performance of all DREAMS hardware before touchdown demonstrating the highest TRL of the unit for future missions. This paper describes this experiment in terms of scientific goals, design, performances, testing and operational capabilities with an overview of in flight performances and available mission data.

iFLOOD: A Real Time Flood Forecast System for Total Water Modeling in the National Capital Region

Science.gov (United States)

Sumi, S. J.; Ferreira, C.

2017-12-01

Extreme flood events are the costliest natural hazards impacting the US and frequently cause extensive damages to infrastructure, disruption to economy and loss of lives. In 2016, Hurricane Matthew brought severe damage to South Carolina and demonstrated the importance of accurate flood hazard predictions that requires the integration of riverine and coastal model forecasts for total water prediction in coastal and tidal areas. The National Weather Service (NWS) and the National Ocean Service (NOS) provide flood forecasts for almost the entire US, still there are service-gap areas in tidal regions where no official flood forecast is available. The National capital region is vulnerable to multi-flood hazards including high flows from annual inland precipitation events and surge driven coastal inundation along the tidal Potomac River. Predicting flood levels on such tidal areas in river-estuarine zone is extremely challenging. The main objective of this study is to develop the next generation of flood forecast systems capable of providing accurate and timely information to support emergency management and response in areas impacted by multi-flood hazards. This forecast system is capable of simulating flood levels in the Potomac and Anacostia River incorporating the effects of riverine flooding from the upstream basins, urban storm water and tidal oscillations from the Chesapeake Bay. Flood forecast models developed so far have been using riverine data to simulate water levels for Potomac River. Therefore, the idea is to use forecasted storm surge data from a coastal model as boundary condition of this system. Final output of this validated model will capture the water behavior in river-estuary transition zone far better than the one with riverine data only. The challenge for this iFLOOD forecast system is to understand the complex dynamics of multi-flood hazards caused by storm surges, riverine flow, tidal oscillation and urban storm water. Automated system

(dust, PM10 , and BC) using CHIMERE chemistry tra

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

The objective of this study is to evaluate the ability of a European chemistry transport model,. 'CHIMERE' driven by ..... tive days in May 2008 (12–16 May) to simulate the dust storm ...... Regional Office for Europe, Copenhagen. Zender C, Bian ...

Electrical storm in patients with implantable cardioverter-defibrillators: can it be forecast?

Science.gov (United States)

Emkanjoo, Zahra; Alihasani, Narges; Alizadeh, Abolfath; Tayyebi, Mohammad; Bonakdar, Hamid; Barakpour, Hamid; Sadr-Ameli, Mohammad Ali

2009-01-01

The aim of this retrospective study was to determine the prevalence and predictors of electrical storm in 227 patients who had received implantable cardioverter-defibrillators (ICDs) and had been monitored for 31.7 +/- 15.6 months. Of these, 174 (77%) were men. The mean age was 55.8 +/- 15.5 years (range, 20-85 yr), and the mean left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) was 0.30 +/- 0.14. One hundred forty-six of the patients (64%) had underlying coronary artery disease. Cardioverter-defibrillators were implanted for secondary (80%) and primary (20%) prevention. Of the 227 patients, 117 (52%) experienced events that required ICD therapy. Thirty patients (mean age, 57.26 +/- 14.3 yr) had > or = 3 episodes requiring ICD therapy in a 24-hour period and were considered to have electrical storm. The mean number of events was 12.75 +/- 15 per patient. Arrhythmia-clustering occurred an average of 6.1 +/- 6.7 months after ICD implantation. Clinical variables with the most significant association with electrical storm were low LVEF (P = 0.04; hazard ratio of 0.261, and 95% confidence interval of 0.08-0.86) and higher use of class IA antiarrhythmic drugs (P = 0.018, hazard ratio of 3.84, and 95% confidence interval of 1.47-10.05). Amiodarone treatment and use of beta-blockers were not significant predictors when subjected to multivariate analysis. We conclude that electrical storm is most likely to occur in patients with lower LVEF and that the use of Class IA antiarrhythmic drugs is a risk factor.

Ionospheric Data Assimilation and Targeted Observation Strategies: Proof of Concept Analysis in a Geomagnetic Storm Event

Science.gov (United States)

Kostelich, Eric; Durazo, Juan; Mahalov, Alex

2017-11-01

The dynamics of the ionosphere involve complex interactions between the atmosphere, solar wind, cosmic radiation, and Earth's magnetic field. Geomagnetic storms arising from solar activity can perturb these dynamics sufficiently to disrupt radio and satellite communications. Efforts to predict ``space weather,'' including ionospheric dynamics, require the development of a data assimilation system that combines observing systems with appropriate forecast models. This talk will outline a proof-of-concept targeted observation strategy, consisting of the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter, coupled with the Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamics Global Circulation Model, to select optimal locations where additional observations can be made to improve short-term ionospheric forecasts. Initial results using data and forecasts from the geomagnetic storm of 26-27 September 2011 will be described. Work supported by the Air Force Office of Scientific Research (Grant Number FA9550-15-1-0096) and by the National Science Foundation (Grant Number DMS-0940314).

ENSO-based probabilistic forecasts of March-May U.S. tornado and hail activity

Science.gov (United States)

Lepore, Chiara; Tippett, Michael K.; Allen, John T.

2017-09-01

Extended logistic regression is used to predict March-May severe convective storm (SCS) activity based on the preceding December-February (DJF) El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state. The spatially resolved probabilistic forecasts are verified against U.S. tornado counts, hail events, and two environmental indices for severe convection. The cross-validated skill is positive for roughly a quarter of the U.S. Overall, indices are predicted with more skill than are storm reports, and hail events are predicted with more skill than tornado counts. Skill is higher in the cool phase of ENSO (La Niña like) when overall SCS activity is higher. SCS forecasts based on the predicted DJF ENSO state from coupled dynamical models initialized in October of the previous year extend the lead time with only a modest reduction in skill compared to forecasts based on the observed DJF ENSO state.

Snow–Dust Storm: Unique case study from Iceland, March 6–7, 2013

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Dagsson-Waldhauserova, P.; Arnalds, O.; Olafsson, H.; Hladil, Jindřich; Skála, Roman; Navrátil, Tomáš; Chadimová, Leona; Meinander, O.

2015-01-01

Roč. 16, March (2015), s. 69-74 ISSN 1875-9637 Institutional support: RVO:67985831 Keywords : snow dust deposition * atmosphere cryosphere interactions * volcanic dust * natural phenomenon * Arctic Subject RIV: DB - Geology ; Mineralogy Impact factor: 2.275, year: 2015

Forecasting Lightning Threat using Cloud-resolving Model Simulations

Science.gov (United States)

McCaul, E. W., Jr.; Goodman, S. J.; LaCasse, K. M.; Cecil, D. J.

2009-01-01

As numerical forecasts capable of resolving individual convective clouds become more common, it is of interest to see if quantitative forecasts of lightning flash rate density are possible, based on fields computed by the numerical model. Previous observational research has shown robust relationships between observed lightning flash rates and inferred updraft and large precipitation ice fields in the mixed phase regions of storms, and that these relationships might allow simulated fields to serve as proxies for lightning flash rate density. It is shown in this paper that two simple proxy fields do indeed provide reasonable and cost-effective bases for creating time-evolving maps of predicted lightning flash rate density, judging from a series of diverse simulation case study events in North Alabama for which Lightning Mapping Array data provide ground truth. One method is based on the product of upward velocity and the mixing ratio of precipitating ice hydrometeors, modeled as graupel only, in the mixed phase region of storms at the -15\\dgc\\ level, while the second method is based on the vertically integrated amounts of ice hydrometeors in each model grid column. Each method can be calibrated by comparing domainwide statistics of the peak values of simulated flash rate proxy fields against domainwide peak total lightning flash rate density data from observations. Tests show that the first method is able to capture much of the temporal variability of the lightning threat, while the second method does a better job of depicting the areal coverage of the threat. A blended solution is designed to retain most of the temporal sensitivity of the first method, while adding the improved spatial coverage of the second. Weather Research and Forecast Model simulations of selected North Alabama cases show that this model can distinguish the general character and intensity of most convective events, and that the proposed methods show promise as a means of generating

An assessment of the ECMWF tropical cyclone ensemble forecasting system and its use for insurance loss predictions

Science.gov (United States)

Aemisegger, F.; Martius, O.; Wüest, M.

2010-09-01

Tropical cyclones (TC) are amongst the most impressive and destructive weather systems of Earth's atmosphere. The costs related to such intense natural disasters have been rising in recent years and may potentially continue to increase in the near future due to changes in magnitude, timing, duration or location of tropical storms. This is a challenging situation for numerical weather prediction, which should provide a decision basis for short term protective measures through high quality medium range forecasts on the one hand. On the other hand, the insurance system bears great responsibility in elaborating proactive plans in order to face these extreme events that individuals cannot manage independently. Real-time prediction and early warning systems are needed in the insurance sector in order to face an imminent hazard and minimise losses. Early loss estimates are important in order to allocate capital and to communicate to investors. The ECMWF TC identification algorithm delivers information on the track and intensity of storms based on the ensemble forecasting system. This provides a physically based framework to assess the uncertainty in the forecast of a specific event. The performance of the ECMWF TC ensemble forecasts is evaluated in terms of cyclone intensity and location in this study and the value of such a physically-based quantification of uncertainty in the meteorological forecast for the estimation of insurance losses is assessed. An evaluation of track and intensity forecasts of hurricanes in the North Atlantic during the years 2005 to 2009 is carried out. Various effects are studied like the differences in forecasts over land or sea, as well as links between storm intensity and forecast error statistics. The value of the ECMWF TC forecasting system for the global re-insurer Swiss Re was assessed by performing insurance loss predictions using their in-house loss model for several case studies of particularly devastating events. The generally known

Mortality associated with particulate concentration and Asian dust storms in Metropolitan Taipei

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Yu-Chun; Lin, Yu-Kai

2015-09-01

This study evaluates mortality risks from all causes, circulatory diseases, and respiratory diseases associated with particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5) concentrations and Asian dust storms (ADS) from 2000 to 2008 in Metropolitan Taipei. This study uses a distributed lag non-linear model with Poisson distribution to estimate the cumulative 5-day (lags 0-4) relative risks (RRs) and confidence intervals (CIs) of cause-specific mortality associated with daily PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations, as well as ADS, for total (all ages) and elderly (≥65 years) populations based on study periods (ADS frequently inflicted period: 2000-2004; and less inflicted period: 2005-2008). Risks associated with ADS characteristics, including inflicted season (winter and spring), strength (the ratio of stations with Pollutant Standard Index >100 is increase in PM10 from 10 μg/m3 to 50 μg/m3 was associated with increased all-cause mortality risk with cumulative 5-day RR of 1.10 (95% CI: 1.04, 1.17) for the total population and 1.10 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.18) for elders. Mortality from circulatory diseases for the elderly was related to increased PM2.5 from 5 μg/m3 to 30 μg/m3, with cumulative 5-day RR of 1.21 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.44) from 2005 to 2008. Compared with normal days, the mortality from all causes and circulatory diseases for the elderly population was associated with winter ADS with RRs of 1.05 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.08) and 1.08 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.15), respectively. Moreover, all-cause mortality was associated with shorter and less area-affected ADS with an RR of 1.04 for total and elderly populations from 2000 to 2004. Population health risk differed not only with PM concentration but also with ADS characteristics.

Predicting the Storm Surge Threat of Hurricane Sandy with the National Weather Service SLOSH Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cristina Forbes

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Numerical simulations of the storm tide that flooded the US Atlantic coastline during Hurricane Sandy (2012 are carried out using the National Weather Service (NWS Sea Lakes and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH storm surge prediction model to quantify its ability to replicate the height, timing, evolution and extent of the water that was driven ashore by this large, destructive storm. Recent upgrades to the numerical model, including the incorporation of astronomical tides, are described and simulations with and without these upgrades are contrasted to assess their contributions to the increase in forecast accuracy. It is shown, through comprehensive verifications of SLOSH simulation results against peak water surface elevations measured at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA tide gauge stations, by storm surge sensors deployed and hundreds of high water marks collected by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS, that the SLOSH-simulated water levels at 71% (89% of the data measurement locations have less than 20% (30% relative error. The RMS error between observed and modeled peak water levels is 0.47 m. In addition, the model’s extreme computational efficiency enables it to run large, automated ensembles of predictions in real-time to account for the high variability that can occur in tropical cyclone forecasts, thus furnishing a range of values for the predicted storm surge and inundation threat.

An analysis of simulated and observed storm characteristics

Science.gov (United States)

Benestad, R. E.

2010-09-01

A calculus-based cyclone identification (CCI) method has been applied to the most recent re-analysis (ERAINT) from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts and results from regional climate model (RCM) simulations. The storm frequency for events with central pressure below a threshold value of 960-990hPa were examined, and the gradient wind from the simulated storm systems were compared with corresponding estimates from the re-analysis. The analysis also yielded estimates for the spatial extent of the storm systems, which was also included in the regional climate model cyclone evaluation. A comparison is presented between a number of RCMs and the ERAINT re-analysis in terms of their description of the gradient winds, number of cyclones, and spatial extent. Furthermore, a comparison between geostrophic wind estimated though triangules of interpolated or station measurements of SLP is presented. Wind still represents one of the more challenging variables to model realistically.

Influence of dust and mud on the optical, chemical, and mechanical properties of a pv protective glass.

Science.gov (United States)

Yilbas, Bekir Sami; Ali, Haider; Khaled, Mazen M; Al-Aqeeli, Nasser; Abu-Dheir, Numan; Varanasi, Kripa K

2015-10-30

Recent developments in climate change have increased the frequency of dust storms in the Middle East. Dust storms significantly influence the performances of solar energy harvesting systems, particularly (photovoltaic) PV systems. The characteristics of the dust and the mud formed from this dust are examined using various analytical tools, including optical, scanning electron, and atomic force microscopies, X-ray diffraction, energy spectroscopy, and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy. The adhesion, cohesion and frictional forces present during the removal of dry mud from the glass surface are determined using a microtribometer. Alkali and alkaline earth metal compounds in the dust dissolve in water to form a chemically active solution at the glass surface. This solution modifies the texture of the glass surface, thereby increasing the microhardness and decreasing the transmittance of the incident optical radiation. The force required to remove the dry mud from the glass surface is high due to the cohesive forces that result from the dried mud solution at the interface between the mud and the glass. The ability altering the characteristics of the glass surface could address the dust/mud-related limitations of protective surfaces and has implications for efficiency enhancements in solar energy systems.

Effect of exposure to an Asian dust storm on fractional exhaled nitric oxide in adult asthma patients in Western Japan.

Science.gov (United States)

Watanabe, Masanari; Kurai, Jun; Sano, Hiroyuki; Shimizu, Eiji

2015-01-01

Epidemiological investigations indicate that an Asian dust storm (ADS) can aggravate respiratory disorders. However, the effects of ADS on airway inflammation remain unclear. The aim of this study was to investigate the association of exposure to ADS with airway inflammation. The subjects were 33 adult patients with asthma who measured daily peak flow expiratory (PEF) from March to May 2012. Fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO) was measured before and after ADS. The FeNO values were 13.8±13.7 ppb before the ADS and 20.3±19.0 ppb after the ADS, with no significant difference. There was also no significant association of PEF with ADS exposure. However, the increase of FeNO after ADS exposure was proportional to the decrease of PEF (R=-0.78, P<0.0001). These results suggest that airway inflammation aggravated by ADS exposure may induce a decrease in pulmonary function in some adult patients with asthma.

Emission, transport, and radiative effects of mineral dust from the Taklimakan and Gobi deserts: comparison of measurements and model results

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Siyu; Huang, Jianping; Kang, Litai; Wang, Hao; Ma, Xiaojun; He, Yongli; Yuan, Tiangang; Yang, Ben; Huang, Zhongwei; Zhang, Guolong

2017-02-01

The Weather Research and Forecasting Model with chemistry (WRF-Chem model) was used to investigate a typical dust storm event that occurred from 18 to 23 March 2010 and swept across almost all of China, Japan, and Korea. The spatial and temporal variations in dust aerosols and the meteorological conditions over East Asia were well reproduced by the WRF-Chem model. The simulation results were used to further investigate the details of processes related to dust emission, long-range transport, and radiative effects of dust aerosols over the Taklimakan Desert (TD) and Gobi Desert (GD). The results indicated that weather conditions, topography, and surface types in dust source regions may influence dust emission, uplift height, and transport at the regional scale. The GD was located in the warm zone in advance of the cold front in this case. Rapidly warming surface temperatures and cold air advection at high levels caused strong instability in the atmosphere, which strengthened the downward momentum transported from the middle and low troposphere and caused strong surface winds. Moreover, the GD is located in a relatively flat, high-altitude region influenced by the confluence of the northern and southern westerly jets. Therefore, the GD dust particles were easily lofted to 4 km and were the primary contributor to the dust concentration over East Asia. In the dust budget analysis, the dust emission flux over the TD was 27.2 ± 4.1 µg m-2 s-1, which was similar to that over the GD (29 ± 3.6 µg m-2 s-1). However, the transport contribution of the TD dust (up to 0.8 ton d-1) to the dust sink was much smaller than that of the GD dust (up to 3.7 ton d-1) because of the complex terrain and the prevailing wind in the TD. Notably, a small amount of the TD dust (PM2.5 dust concentration of approximately 8.7 µg m-3) was lofted to above 5 km and transported over greater distances under the influence of the westerly jets. Moreover, the direct radiative forcing induced by dust

Disturbance to desert soil ecosystems contributes to dust-mediated impacts at regional scales

Science.gov (United States)

Pointing, Stephen B.; Belnap, Jayne

2014-01-01

This review considers the regional scale of impacts arising from disturbance to desert soil ecosystems. Deserts occupy over one-third of the Earth’s terrestrial surface, and biological soil covers are critical to stabilization of desert soils. Disturbance to these can contribute to massive destabilization and mobilization of dust. This results in dust storms that are transported across inter-continental distances where they have profound negative impacts. Dust deposition at high altitudes causes radiative forcing of snowpack that leads directly to altered hydrological regimes and changes to freshwater biogeochemistry. In marine environments dust deposition impacts phytoplankton diazotrophy, and causes coral reef senescence. Increasingly dust is also recognized as a threat to human health.

A European precipitation index for extreme rain-storm and flash flood early warning

OpenAIRE

ALFIERI LORENZO; THIELEN DEL POZO Jutta

2012-01-01

Extreme rain-storms are known for triggering devastating flash floods in various regions of Europe and particularly along the Mediterranean coasts. Despite recent notable advances in weather forecasting, most operational early warning systems for extreme rainstorms and flash floods are based on rainfall estimation, rather than on forecasts. As a result, warning lead times are bounded to few hours and warnings are usually issued when the event is already taking place. This work proposes a n...

Simulating the Regional Impact of Dust on the Middle East Climate and the Red Sea

KAUST Repository

Osipov, Sergey; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.

2018-01-01

the Regional Ocean Modeling System fully coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting model. We modified the atmospheric model to account for the radiative effect of dust. The simulations show that, in the equilibrium response, dust cools the Red Sea

Physical properties of suspended dust during moist and low wind conditions in Iceland

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Dagsson-Waldhauserova, P.; Arnalds, O.; Olafsson, H.; Škrabalová, L.; Sigurdardottir, G. M.; Braniš, M.; Hladil, Jindřich; Skála, Roman; Navrátil, Tomáš; Chadimová, Leona; Lowis of Menar, S.; Thorsteinsson, T.; Carlsen, H. K.; Jonsdottir, I.

2014-01-01

Roč. 27, č. 1 (2014), s. 25-39 ISSN 1670-567X Institutional support: RVO:67985831 Keywords : atmospheric measurements * dust storm event * surface heating * dust aerosol * climate aspects Subject RIV: DB - Geology ; Mineralogy Impact factor: 0.188, year: 2014 http://www.ias.is/landbunadur/wgsamvef.nsf/Attachment/IAS%20-%204%20kafli%20Pavla/$file/IAS%20-%204%20kafli%20Pavla.pdf

Use of Remote Sensing and Dust Modelling to Evaluate Ecosystem Phenology and Pollen Dispersal

Science.gov (United States)

Luvall, Jeffrey C.; Sprigg, William A.; Watts, Carol; Shaw, Patrick

2007-01-01

The impact of pollen release and downwind concentrations can be evaluated utilizing remote sensing. Previous NASA studies have addressed airborne dust prediction systems PHAiRS (Public Health Applications in Remote Sensing) which have determined that pollen forecasts and simulations are possible. By adapting the deterministic dust model (as an in-line system with the National Weather Service operational forecast model) used in PHAiRS to simulate downwind dispersal of pollen, initializing the model with pollen source regions from MODIS, assessing the results a rapid prototype concept can be produced. We will present the results of our effort to develop a deterministic model for predicting and simulating pollen emission and downwind concentration to study details or phenology and meteorology and their dependencies, and the promise of a credible real time forecast system to support public health and agricultural science and service. Previous studies have been done with PHAiRS research, the use of NASA data, the dust model and the PHAiRS potential to improve public health and environmental services long into the future.

Radar observations of a tornado-spawning storm complex in Southeast Brazil and Meso-Eta forecasts of this extreme event

Science.gov (United States)

Held, Gerhard; Gomes, Jorge Luis; Gomes, Ana Maria

2014-05-01

During the early afternoon of 22 September 2013, severe storms, accompanied by large hail, damaging winds, heavy precipitation and intense lightning activity, devastated a region in the southeast State of São Paulo. Several extremely intense storm cells moved at up to 80 km/h east-southeastwards, ahead of a strong cold front approaching through Paraná, which created extremely unstable conditions that led to deep convection and overshooting towers up to 18 km. At least one of theses cells spawned a tornado when it reached the town of Taquarituba. The tornado traversed the town from south-southwest to north-northeast and was responsible for 63 people injured and two fatalities. Based on the damage reported, it was at least an F3 according to the Fujita scale. The objective of the present study is to characterize this severe thunderstorm event, using different types of data, and to evaluate the forecasts provided by the Meso-Eta model centered over Bauru. The pre-frontal and frontal convective cells were tracked throughout their life-time by IPMet's Doppler radars, which cover the western and central regions of the State São Paulo, as well as northern Paraná State. Radar volume scans, generated every 7,5 min, were processed with the TITAN (Thunderstorm Identification, Tracking, Analysis and Nowcasting) Software, yielding the following preliminary results: as the storm complex traversed the Paranapanema River, which forms the border between the two states, the cells intensified drastically and shortly before reaching the town of Taquarituba, that particular cell displayed extremely strong radial shear just above the cloud base (about -20 to +35 m/s), which led to the formation of a deep meso-cyclone, from which the tornado spawned and touched down at around 14:30 LT (LT=UT-3h). Cell properties calculated by TITAN showed a drastic increase of VIL (Vertically Integrated Liquid water content) from 13:52 LT (7,9 kg/m2) to a maximum of 61,8 kg/m2 at 14:15 LT. From 14

Short-Term fo F2 Forecast: Present Day State of Art

Science.gov (United States)

Mikhailov, A. V.; Depuev, V. H.; Depueva, A. H.

An analysis of the F2-layer short-term forecast problem has been done. Both objective and methodological problems prevent us from a deliberate F2-layer forecast issuing at present. An empirical approach based on statistical methods may be recommended for practical use. A forecast method based on a new aeronomic index (a proxy) AI has been proposed and tested over selected 64 severe storm events. The method provides an acceptable prediction accuracy both for strongly disturbed and quiet conditions. The problems with the prediction of the F2-layer quiet-time disturbances as well as some other unsolved problems are discussed

Numerical Prediction of Dust. Chapter 10

Science.gov (United States)

Benedetti, Angela; Baldasano, J. M.; Basart, S.; Benincasa, F.; Boucher, O.; Brooks, M.; Chen, J. P.; Colarco, P. R.; Gong, S.; Huneeus, N.;

Forecasting the Dst index using a swarm-optimized neural network

Science.gov (United States)

Lazzús, J. A.; Vega, P.; Rojas, P.; Salfate, I.

2017-08-01

A hybrid technique that combines an artificial neural network with a particle swarm optimization (ANN+PSO) was used to forecast the disturbance storm time (Dst) index from 1 to 6 h ahead. Our ANN was optimized by PSO to update ANN weights and to predict the short-term Dst index using past values as input parameters. The database used contains 233,760 hourly data from 1 January 1990 to 31 August 2016, considering storms and quiet period, grouped into three data sets: learning set (with 116,880 hourly data points), validation set (with 58,440 data points), and testing set (with 58,440 data points). Several ANN topologies were studied, and the best architecture was determined by systematically adding neurons and evaluating the root-mean-square error (RMSE) and the correlation coefficient (R) during the training process. These results show that the hybrid algorithm is a powerful technique for forecasting the Dst index a short time in advance like t + 1 to t + 3, with RMSE from 3.5 nT to 7.5 nT, and R from 0.98 to 0.90. However, t + 4 to t + 6 predictions become slightly more uncertain, with RMSE from 8.8 nT to 10.9 nT, and R from 0.86 to 0.79. Additionally, an exhaustive analysis according to geomagnetic storm magnitude was conducted. In general, the results show that our hybrid algorithm can be correctly trained to forecast the Dst index with appropriate precision and that Dst past behavior significantly affects adequate training and predicting capabilities of the implemented ANN.

On the impact of wind on the development of wave field during storm Britta

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Du, Jianting; Bolaños, Rodolfo

2017-01-01

The observation of extreme waves at FINO 1 during storm Britta on the 1st November 2006 has initiated a series of research studies regarding the mechanisms behind. The roles of stability and the presence of the open cell structures have been previously investigated but not conclusive. To improve...... our understanding of these processes, which are essential for a good forecast of similarly important events offshore, this study revisits the development of storm Britta using an atmospheric and wave coupled modeling system, wind and wave measurements from ten stations across the North Sea, cloud...... images and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data. It is found here that a standard state-of-the-art model is capable of capturing the important characteristics of a major storm like Britta, including the storm path, storm peak wind speed, the open cells, and peak significant wave height (H s ) for open sea...

Cyclone track forecasting based on satellite images using artificial neural networks

OpenAIRE

Kovordanyi, Rita; Roy, Chandan

2009-01-01

Many places around the world are exposed to tropical cyclones and associated storm surges. In spite of massive efforts, a great number of people die each year as a result of cyclone events. To mitigate this damage, improved forecasting techniques must be developed. The technique presented here uses artificial neural networks to interpret NOAA-AVHRR satellite images. A multi-layer neural network, resembling the human visual system, was trained to forecast the movement of cyclones based on sate...

Adapting MODIS Dust Mask Algorithm to Suomi NPP VIIRS for Air Quality Applications

Science.gov (United States)

Ciren, P.; Liu, H.; Kondragunta, S.; Laszlo, I.

2012-12-01

Despite pollution reduction control strategies enforced by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), large regions of the United States are often under exceptional events such as biomass burning and dust outbreaks that lead to non-attainment of particulate matter standards. This has warranted the National Weather Service (NWS) to provide smoke and dust forecast guidance to the general public. The monitoring and forecasting of dust outbreaks relies on satellite data. Currently, Aqua/MODIS (MODerate resolution Imaging Spectrometer) and Terra/MODIS provide measurements needed to derive dust mask and Aerosol Optical Thickness (AOT) products. The newly launched Suomi NPP VIIRS (Visible/Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) instrument has a Suspended Matter (SM) product that indicates the presence of dust, smoke, volcanic ash, sea salt, and unknown aerosol types in a given pixel. The algorithm to identify dust is different over land and ocean but for both, the information comes from AOT retrieval algorithm. Over land, the selection of dust aerosol model in the AOT retrieval algorithm indicates the presence of dust and over ocean a fine mode fraction smaller than 20% indicates dust. Preliminary comparisons of VIIRS SM to CALIPSO Vertical Feature Mask (VFM) aerosol type product indicate that the Probability of Detection (POD) is at ~10% and the product is not mature for operational use. As an alternate approach, NESDIS dust mask algorithm developed for NWS dust forecast verification that uses MODIS deep blue, visible, and mid-IR channels using spectral differencing techniques and spatial variability tests was applied to VIIRS radiances. This algorithm relies on the spectral contrast of dust absorption at 412 and 440 nm and an increase in reflectivity at 2.13 μm when dust is present in the atmosphere compared to a clear sky. To avoid detecting bright desert surface as airborne dust, the algorithm uses the reflectances at 1.24 μm and 2.25 μm to flag bright pixels. The

Effects of Asian dust event particles on inflammation markers in peripheral blood and bronchoalveolar lavage in pulmonary hypertensive rats

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lei, Y.-C.; Chan, C.-C.; Wang, P.-Y.; Lee, C.-T.; Cheng, T.-J.

2004-01-01

The health impact of dust events from China has become a concern within China and in its neighboring countries. Previous epidemiological studies have demonstrated an association between particulate matter exposure and cardiopulmonary mortality. Here, we use pulmonary hypertensive rat models to examine inflammation markers in the lung and in peripheral blood after exposure to Asian dust storm particles. Using a nose-only inhalation system, eight pulmonary hypertensive rats were exposed to concentrated ambient particles (CAPs) from an actual Asian dust storm that took place between March 18 and 19, 2002; four control rats were also exposed to room air. Four rats exposed to CAPs of 315.6 μg/m 3 for 6 h were classified as the low-exposure group, and another four rats exposed to CAPs of 684.5 μg/m 3 for 4.5 h were classified as the high-exposure group. The animals were sacrificed 36 h after exposure. Inflammation markers in the peripheral blood and in the bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) were analyzed, and IL-6 in BAL was also determined using ELISA. White blood cell counts in peripheral blood increased with increased CAP exposure levels (P<0.001, test for trend). In BAL analysis, total cell numbers and the proportion of neutrophil also increased with increased CAP levels (P<0.001, test for trend for both markers). Positive dose-response relationships between CAP exposure and total protein (P<0.05) and between CAPs and LDH activity (P<0.05) were also observed. Moreover, IL-6 protein in BAL increasing with CAP levels (P<0.05, test for trend) was demonstrated. Our results revealed that exposure to particulate matters during an Asian dust storm could increase lung inflammation and injury in pulmonary hypertensive rats. Further studies are needed to determine the components of dust storm particles that may contribute to the particle toxicity

The relationship between the Asian dust and Arctic Oscillation: An observational investigation

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Y.; Kim, J.; Cho, H.

2009-12-01

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) represents the leading empirical orthogonal function of winter sea level pressure (SLP) fields, which resembles North Atlantic Oscillation, but has a more zonally symmetric structure (Thompson and Wallace, 1998; Wallace, 2000; Wu and Wang, 2002). This primary mode of the internal dynamics in the atmosphere predominates the Extratropical Northern Hemisphere circulation from surface to the lower stratosphere showing an equivalent barotropic structure during cold season(November-April) (Thompson and Wallace, 2000). Also, the Asian dust storms show strong interannual variation (Sun et al., 2001; Yoshino, 2002; Zhao et al., 2006; Hara et al., 2006), which are suggested to be associated with climate indices. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to identify the possible connection for the AO and the Asian dust emission during periods from late winter to spring, based on the observational investigations. In order to examine these complex associations closely, the Aerosol Index (AI) from Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) are used starting from November 1978 to December 1999, except for data pause from May 1993 to August 1996. SLP and geopotential height at 500hPa (Z500) monthly fields are derived from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalyses (1958-2001). Also, source regions of Asian dust are mainly focused on three source areas, including the Taklimakan Desert (R1), Badain Jaran Desert (R2), and Mongolia (R3) in this study. In composite study during different phases of AO, the AO exhibits a “negative phase” with relatively high pressure over the polar region and low pressure at mid-latitudes (about 45 degrees North). In strong “negative phase” of AO, decrease of AO is found to be associated with decreases of local tropospheric temperature, U-wind, and geopotential height and strong north-south gradients over the source regions of Asian dust. Therefore, we also notice that a negative index phase

Can High-resolution WRF Simulations Be Used for Short-term Forecasting of Lightning?

Science.gov (United States)

Goodman, S. J.; Lapenta, W.; McCaul, E. W., Jr.; LaCasse, K.; Petersen, W.

2006-01-01

A number of research teams have begun to make quasi-operational forecast simulations at high resolution with models such as the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. These model runs have used horizontal meshes of 2-4 km grid spacing, and thus resolved convective storms explicitly. In the light of recent global satellite-based observational studies that reveal robust relationships between total lightning flash rates and integrated amounts of precipitation-size ice hydrometeors in storms, it is natural to inquire about the capabilities of these convection-resolving models in representing the ice hydrometeor fields faithfully. If they do, this might make operational short-term forecasts of lightning activity feasible. We examine high-resolution WRF simulations from several Southeastern cases for which either NLDN or LMA lightning data were available. All the WRF runs use a standard microphysics package that depicts only three ice species, cloud ice, snow and graupel. The realism of the WRF simulations is examined by comparisons with both lightning and radar observations and with additional even higher-resolution cloud-resolving model runs. Preliminary findings are encouraging in that they suggest that WRF often makes convective storms of the proper size in approximately the right location, but they also indicate that higher resolution and better hydrometeor microphysics would be helpful in improving the realism of the updraft strengths, reflectivity and ice hydrometeor fields.

Optical and microphysical properties of natural mineral dust and anthropogenic soil dust near dust source regions over northwestern China

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Xin; Wen, Hui; Shi, Jinsen; Bi, Jianrong; Huang, Zhongwei; Zhang, Beidou; Zhou, Tian; Fu, Kaiqi; Chen, Quanliang; Xin, Jinyuan

2018-02-01

Mineral dust aerosols (MDs) not only influence the climate by scattering and absorbing solar radiation but also modify cloud properties and change the ecosystem. From 3 April to 16 May 2014, a ground-based mobile laboratory was deployed to measure the optical and microphysical properties of MDs near dust source regions in Wuwei, Zhangye, and Dunhuang (in chronological order) along the Hexi Corridor over northwestern China. Throughout this dust campaign, the hourly averaged (±standard deviation) aerosol scattering coefficients (σsp, 550 nm) of the particulates with aerodynamic diameters less than 2.5 µm (PM2.5) at these three sites were sequentially 101.5 ± 36.8, 182.2 ± 433.1, and 54.0 ± 32.0 Mm-1. Correspondingly, the absorption coefficients (σap, 637 nm) were 9.7 ± 6.1, 6.0 ± 4.6, and 2.3 ± 0.9 Mm-1; single-scattering albedos (ω, 637 nm) were 0.902 ± 0.025, 0.931 ± 0.037, and 0.949 ± 0.020; and scattering Ångström exponents (Åsp, 450-700 nm) of PM2.5 were 1.28 ± 0.27, 0.77 ± 0.51, and 0.52 ± 0.31. During a severe dust storm in Zhangye (i.e., from 23 to 25 April), the highest values of σsp2.5 ( ˜ 5074 Mm-1), backscattering coefficient (σbsp2.5, ˜ 522 Mm-1), and ω637 ( ˜ 0.993) and the lowest values of backscattering fraction (b2.5, ˜ 0.101) at 550 nm and Åsp2.5 ( ˜ -0.046) at 450-700 nm, with peak values of aerosol number size distribution (appearing at the particle diameter range of 1-3 µm), exhibited that the atmospheric aerosols were dominated by coarse-mode dust aerosols. It is hypothesized that the relatively higher values of mass scattering efficiency during floating dust episodes in Wuwei and Zhangye are attributed to the anthropogenic soil dust produced by agricultural cultivations.

Long-term variability of dust events in Iceland (1949-2011)

Science.gov (United States)

Dagsson-Waldhauserova, P.; Arnalds, O.; Olafsson, H.

2014-12-01

The long-term frequency of atmospheric dust observations was investigated for the southern part of Iceland and interpreted together with earlier results obtained from northeastern (NE) Iceland (Dagsson-Waldhauserova et al., 2013). In total, over 34 dust days per year on average occurred in Iceland based on conventionally used synoptic codes for dust observations. However, frequent volcanic eruptions, with the re-suspension of volcanic materials and dust haze, increased the number of dust events fourfold (135 dust days annually). The position of the Icelandic Low determined whether dust events occurred in the NE (16.4 dust days annually) or in the southern (S) part of Iceland (about 18 dust days annually). The decade with the most frequent dust days in S Iceland was the 1960s, but the 2000s in NE Iceland. A total of 32 severe dust storms (visibility typically warm, occurring during summer/autumn (May-September) and during mild southwesterly winds, while the subarctic dust events (S Iceland) were mainly cold, occurring during winter/spring (March-May) and during strong northeasterly winds. About half of the dust events in S Iceland occurred in winter or at sub-zero temperatures. A good correlation was found between particulate matter (PM10) concentrations and visibility during dust observations at the stations Vík and Stórhöfði. This study shows that Iceland is among the dustiest areas of the world and that dust is emitted year-round.

Revealing the meteorological drivers of the September 2015 severe dust event in the Eastern Mediterranean

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. Gasch

2017-11-01

Full Text Available In September 2015 one of the severest and most unusual dust events on record occurred in the Eastern Mediterranean. Surprisingly, operational dust transport models were unable to forecast the event. This study details the reasons for this failure and presents simulations of the event at convection-permitting resolution using the modelling system ICON-ART. The results allow for an in-depth analysis of the influence of the synoptic situation, the complex interaction of multiple driving atmospheric systems and the mineral dust radiative effect on the dust event. A comparison of the results with observations reveals the quality of the simulation results with respect to structure and timing of the dust transport. The forecast of the dust event is improved decisively. The event is triggered by the unusually early occurrence of an active Red Sea trough situation with an easterly axis over Mesopotamia. The connected sustained organized mesoscale convection produces multiple cold-pool outflows responsible for intense dust emissions. Complexity is added by the interaction with an intense heat low, the inland-penetrating Eastern Mediterranean sea breeze and the widespread occurrence of supercritical flow conditions and subsequent hydraulic jumps in the vicinity of the Dead Sea Rift Valley. The newly implemented mineral dust radiation interaction leads to systematically more intense and faster propagating cold-pool outflows.

Influence of tropical storms in the Northern Indian Ocean on dust entrainment and long-range transport.

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Ramaswamy, V.

to the winter and summer Shamal Winds, tropical cyclones are an important mechanism of dust entrainment and transport of dust in this region. Elevated dust levels were observed in the northern Arabian Sea during most tropical cyclone events. During the study...

Advances in electric power and energy systems load and price forecasting

CERN Document Server

2017-01-01

A comprehensive review of state-of-the-art approaches to power systems forecasting from the most respected names in the field, internationally. Advances in Electric Power and Energy Systems is the first book devoted exclusively to a subject of increasing urgency to power systems planning and operations. Written for practicing engineers, researchers, and post-grads concerned with power systems planning and forecasting, this book brings together contributions from many of the world’s foremost names in the field who address a range of critical issues, from forecasting power system load to power system pricing to post-storm service restoration times, river flow forecasting, and more. In a time of ever-increasing energy demands, mounting concerns over the environmental impacts of power generation, and the emergence of new, smart-grid technologies, electricity price forecasting has assumed a prominent role within both the academic and industrial ar nas. Short-run forecasting of electricity prices has become nece...

Solar Storm GIC Forecasting: Solar Shield Extension Development of the End-User Forecasting System Requirements

Science.gov (United States)

Pulkkinen, A.; Mahmood, S.; Ngwira, C.; Balch, C.; Lordan, R.; Fugate, D.; Jacobs, W.; Honkonen, I.

2015-01-01

A NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Heliophysics Science Division-led team that includes NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, the Catholic University of America, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), and Electric Research and Management, Inc., recently partnered with the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Science and Technology Directorate (S&T) to better understand the impact of Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GIC) on the electric power industry. This effort builds on a previous NASA-sponsored Applied Sciences Program for predicting GIC, known as Solar Shield. The focus of the new DHS S&T funded effort is to revise and extend the existing Solar Shield system to enhance its forecasting capability and provide tailored, timely, actionable information for electric utility decision makers. To enhance the forecasting capabilities of the new Solar Shield, a key undertaking is to extend the prediction system coverage across Contiguous United States (CONUS), as the previous version was only applicable to high latitudes. The team also leverages the latest enhancements in space weather modeling capacity residing at Community Coordinated Modeling Center to increase the Technological Readiness Level, or Applications Readiness Level of the system http://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/files/ExpandedARLDefinitions4813.pdf.

Depth-area-duration characteristics of storm rainfall in Texas using Multi-Sensor Precipitation Estimates

Science.gov (United States)

McEnery, J. A.; Jitkajornwanich, K.

2012-12-01

This presentation will describe the methodology and overall system development by which a benchmark dataset of precipitation information has been used to characterize the depth-area-duration relations in heavy rain storms occurring over regions of Texas. Over the past two years project investigators along with the National Weather Service (NWS) West Gulf River Forecast Center (WGRFC) have developed and operated a gateway data system to ingest, store, and disseminate NWS multi-sensor precipitation estimates (MPE). As a pilot project of the Integrated Water Resources Science and Services (IWRSS) initiative, this testbed uses a Standard Query Language (SQL) server to maintain a full archive of current and historic MPE values within the WGRFC service area. These time series values are made available for public access as web services in the standard WaterML format. Having this volume of information maintained in a comprehensive database now allows the use of relational analysis capabilities within SQL to leverage these multi-sensor precipitation values and produce a valuable derivative product. The area of focus for this study is North Texas and will utilize values that originated from the West Gulf River Forecast Center (WGRFC); one of three River Forecast Centers currently represented in the holdings of this data system. Over the past two decades, NEXRAD radar has dramatically improved the ability to record rainfall. The resulting hourly MPE values, distributed over an approximate 4 km by 4 km grid, are considered by the NWS to be the "best estimate" of rainfall. The data server provides an accepted standard interface for internet access to the largest time-series dataset of NEXRAD based MPE values ever assembled. An automated script has been written to search and extract storms over the 18 year period of record from the contents of this massive historical precipitation database. Not only can it extract site-specific storms, but also duration-specific storms and

Developing an early warning system for storm surge inundation in the Philippines

Science.gov (United States)

Tablazon, J.; Caro, C. V.; Lagmay, A. M. F.; Briones, J. B. L.; Dasallas, L.; Lapidez, J. P.; Santiago, J.; Suarez, J. K.; Ladiero, C.; Gonzalo, L. A.; Mungcal, M. T. F.; Malano, V.

2014-10-01

A storm surge is the sudden rise of sea water generated by an approaching storm, over and above the astronomical tides. This event imposes a major threat in the Philippine coastal areas, as manifested by Typhoon Haiyan on 8 November 2013 where more than 6000 people lost their lives. It has become evident that the need to develop an early warning system for storm surges is of utmost importance. To provide forecasts of the possible storm surge heights of an approaching typhoon, the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards under the Department of Science and Technology (DOST-Project NOAH) simulated historical tropical cyclones that entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility. Bathymetric data, storm track, central atmospheric pressure, and maximum wind speed were used as parameters for the Japan Meteorological Agency Storm Surge Model. The researchers calculated the frequency distribution of maximum storm surge heights of all typhoons under a specific Public Storm Warning Signal (PSWS) that passed through a particular coastal area. This determines the storm surge height corresponding to a given probability of occurrence. The storm surge heights from the model were added to the maximum astronomical tide data from WXTide software. The team then created maps of probable area inundation and flood levels of storm surges along coastal areas for a specific PSWS using the results of the frequency distribution. These maps were developed from the time series data of the storm tide at 10 min intervals of all observation points in the Philippines. This information will be beneficial in developing early warnings systems, static maps, disaster mitigation and preparedness plans, vulnerability assessments, risk-sensitive land use plans, shoreline defense efforts, and coastal protection measures. Moreover, these will support the local government units' mandate to raise public awareness, disseminate information about storm surge hazards, and implement appropriate counter

Modeling the Interaction of Mineral Dust with Solar Radiation: Spherical versus Non-spherical Particles

Science.gov (United States)

Hoshyaripour, A.; Vogel, B.; Vogel, H.

2017-12-01

Mineral dust, emitted from arid and semi-arid regions, is the most dominant atmospheric aerosol by mass. Beside detrimental effect on air quality, airborne dust also influences the atmospheric radiation by absorbing and scattering solar and terrestrial radiation. As a result, while the long-term radiative impacts of dust are important for climate, the short-term effects are significant for the photovoltaic energy production. Therefore, it is a vital requirement to accurately forecast the effects of dust on energy budget of the atmosphere and surface. To this end, a major issue is the fact that dust particles are non-spherical. Thus, the optical properties of such particles cannot be calculated precisely using the conventional methods like Mie theory that are often used in climate and numerical weather forecast models. In this study, T-Matrix method is employed, which is able to treat the non-sphericity of particles. Dust particles are assumed to be prolate spheroids with aspect ratio of 1.5 distributed in three lognormal modes. The wavelength-dependent refractive indices of dust are used in T-Matrix algorithm to calculate the extinction coefficient, single scattering albedo, asymmetry parameter and backscattering ratio at different wavelengths. These parameters are then implemented in ICON-ART model (ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic model with Aerosols and Reactive Trace gases) to conduct a global simulation with 80 km horizontal resolution and 90 vertical levels. April 2014 is selected as the simulation period during which North African dust plumes reached central Europe and Germany. Results show that treatment of non-sphericity reduces the dust AOD in the range of 10 to 30%/. The impacts on diffuse and direct radiation at global, regional and local scales show strong dependency on the size distribution of the airborne dust. The implications for modeling and remote sensing the dust impacts on solar energy are also discussed.

"Dust Devils": Gardening Agents on the Surface of Mars, and Hidden Hazards to Human Exploration?

Science.gov (United States)

Marshall, J.; Smith, P.; White, B.; Farrell, W.

1999-09-01

dust devils are to be expected in reasonable abundance. First, from a geological perspective, the vortices will act as "gardening" agents for the top few centimeters of entrainable material. Over time (hundreds of millions, or billions of years being available), they will cover the surface with scouring paths, and the grain sizes that can be lofted by a vortex probably extends over the whole sand to dust range. The depositional paths are, of course, much larger, so that vortex-induced deposition is more widespread than vortex-induced erosion, and will without doubt, affect the whole region in which the dust devils occur (this might explain why rocks at the Viking site seemed oddly capped with dust in a region apparently subject to general aeolian scouring). On Mars, the lift forces in dust devils might be less than on earth owing to the much thinner atmosphere, but this may be counterbalanced by lower gravity and greater vortex velocities. Certainly, when active, other aeolian phenomena on Mars --sand motion and dust storms, seem no less energetic and no less capable of lofting sediments than equivalent terrestrial aeolian phenomena. Every several years, within the current climatic regime, the surface of Mars is subject to light dust fall from global dust storms. Over time, this should develop a very uniform surface layer, with commensurate uniformity in grain size, mineralogy, albedo, color, and general spectroscopic properties. Dust devils will disturb this situation by continually mixing the surface dust with underlying layers, perhaps composed of silt and sand. This size mixing will also involve compositional mixing. After some years, the thin layer of dust that may be difficult to entrain alone, becomes progressively mixed with coarser materials that could reduce the general aeolian threshold of the soil. Certainly the continual disturbance by vorticity will prevent surface stabilization that may bind or indurate grains (caused by slow cementation or ice welding

Asian dust storm elevates children's respiratory health risks: a spatiotemporal analysis of children's clinic visits across Taipei (Taiwan.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hwa-Lung Yu

Full Text Available Concerns have been raised about the adverse impact of Asian dust storms (ADS on human health; however, few studies have examined the effect of these events on children's health. Using databases from the Taiwan National Health Insurance and Taiwan Environmental Protection Agency, this study investigates the documented daily visits of children to respiratory clinics during and after ADS that occurred from 1997 to 2007 among 12 districts across Taipei City by applying a Bayesian structural additive regressive model controlled for spatial and temporal patterns. This study finds that the significantly impact of elevated children's respiratory clinic visits happened after ADS. Five of the seven lagged days had increasing percentages of relative rate, which was consecutively elevated from a 2-day to a 5-day lag by 0.63%∼2.19% for preschool children (i.e., 0∼6 years of age and 0.72%∼3.17% for school children (i.e., 7∼14 years of age. The spatial pattern of clinic visits indicated that geographical heterogeneity was possibly associated with the clinic's location and accessibility. Moreover, day-of-week effects were elevated on Monday, Friday, and Saturday. We concluded that ADS may significantly increase the risks of respiratory diseases consecutively in the week after exposure, especially in school children.

Developing a Dust Emission Procedure for Central Asia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Longlei Li

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Airborne mineral dust is thought to have a significant influence on the climate through absorbing and scattering both shortwave and longwave radiations and affecting cloud microphysical processes. However, a knowledge of long-term dust emissions is limited from both temporal and spatial perspectives. Here, we have developed a quantitative climatology: the column-integrated mass of the dust aerosol loading in Central Asia by incorporating the dust module (DuMo into the Weather Research and Forecasting coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem model and accounting for regional climate and Land-Cover and Land-Use Changes for the 1950-2010 period in April. This data set is lowly to moderately correlated (0.22-0.48 with the satellite Aerosol Optical Depth in April of the 2000s and lowly correlated (0.02-0.11 with the Absorbing Aerosol Index in April of the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s. The total dust loading is approximately 207.85 Mton per month in April during the recent decade (2000-2014 over dust source regions. Although only the month of April was simulated, results suggest that trends and magnitudes are captured well, using the WRF-Chem-DuMo.

New insights on geomagnetic storms from observations and modeling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jordanova, Vania K [Los Alamos National Laboratory

2009-01-01

Understanding the response at Earth of the Sun's varying energy output and forecasting geomagnetic activity is of central interest to space science, since intense geomagnetic storms may cause severe damages on technological systems and affect communications. Episodes of southward (Bzstorms representative of each interplanetary condition with our kinetic ring current atmosphere interactions model (RAM), and investigate the mechanisms responsible for trapping particles and for causing their loss. We find that periods of increased magnetospheric convection coinciding with enhancements of plasma sheet density are needed for strong ring current buildup. During the HSS-driven storm the convection potential is highly variable and causes small sporadic injections into the ring current. The long period of enhanced convection during the CME-driven storm causes a continuous ring current injection penetrating to lower L shells and stronger ring current buildup.

A Photo Storm Report Mobile Application, Processing/Distribution System, and AWIPS-II Display Concept

Science.gov (United States)

Longmore, S. P.; Bikos, D.; Szoke, E.; Miller, S. D.; Brummer, R.; Lindsey, D. T.; Hillger, D.

2014-12-01

The increasing use of mobile phones equipped with digital cameras and the ability to post images and information to the Internet in real-time has significantly improved the ability to report events almost instantaneously. In the context of severe weather reports, a representative digital image conveys significantly more information than a simple text or phone relayed report to a weather forecaster issuing severe weather warnings. It also allows the forecaster to reasonably discern the validity and quality of a storm report. Posting geo-located, time stamped storm report photographs utilizing a mobile phone application to NWS social media weather forecast office pages has generated recent positive feedback from forecasters. Building upon this feedback, this discussion advances the concept, development, and implementation of a formalized Photo Storm Report (PSR) mobile application, processing and distribution system and Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System II (AWIPS-II) plug-in display software.The PSR system would be composed of three core components: i) a mobile phone application, ii) a processing and distribution software and hardware system, and iii) AWIPS-II data, exchange and visualization plug-in software. i) The mobile phone application would allow web-registered users to send geo-location, view direction, and time stamped PSRs along with severe weather type and comments to the processing and distribution servers. ii) The servers would receive PSRs, convert images and information to NWS network bandwidth manageable sizes in an AWIPS-II data format, distribute them on the NWS data communications network, and archive the original PSRs for possible future research datasets. iii) The AWIPS-II data and exchange plug-ins would archive PSRs, and the visualization plug-in would display PSR locations, times and directions by hour, similar to surface observations. Hovering on individual PSRs would reveal photo thumbnails and clicking on them would display the

Influence of Dust Loading on Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation on Mars

Science.gov (United States)

Norman, Ryan B.; Gronoff, Guillaume; Mertens, Christopher J.

2014-01-01

Measuring the radiation environment at the surface of Mars is the primary goal of the Radiation Assessment Detector on the NASA Mars Science Laboratory's Curiosity rover. One of the conditions that Curiosity will likely encounter is a dust storm. The objective of this paper is to compute the cosmic ray ionization in different conditions, including dust storms, as these various conditions are likely to be encountered by Curiosity at some point. In the present work, the Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety model, recently modified for Mars, was used along with the Badhwar & O'Neill 2010 galactic cosmic ray model. In addition to galactic cosmic rays, five different solar energetic particle event spectra were considered. For all input radiation environments, radiation dose throughout the atmosphere and at the surface was investigated as a function of atmospheric dust loading. It is demonstrated that for galactic cosmic rays, the ionization depends strongly on the atmosphere profile. Moreover, it is shown that solar energetic particle events strongly increase the ionization throughout the atmosphere, including ground level, and can account for the radio blackout conditions observed by the Mars Advanced Radar for Subsurface and Ionospheric Sounding instrument on the Mars Express spacecraft. These results demonstrate that the cosmic rays' influence on the Martian surface chemistry is strongly dependent on solar and atmospheric conditions that should be taken into account for future studies.

Hindcasting of storm waves using neural networks

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Rao, S.; Mandal, S.

Department NN neural network net i weighted sum of the inputs of neuron i o k network output at kth output node P total number of training pattern s i output of neuron i t k target output at kth output node 1. Introduction Severe storms occur in Bay of Bengal...), forecasting of runoff (Crespo and Mora, 1993), concrete strength (Kasperkiewicz et al., 1995). The uses of neural network in the coastal the wave conditions will change from year to year, thus a proper statistical and climatological treatment requires several...

Asian dust events of April 1998

Science.gov (United States)

Husar, R.B.; Tratt, D.M.; Schichtel, B.A.; Falke, S.R.; Li, F.; Jaffe, D.; Gasso, S.; Gill, T.; Laulainen, N.S.; Lu, F.; Reheis, M.C.; Chun, Y.; Westphal, D.; Holben, B.N.; Gueymard, C.; McKendry, I.; Kuring, N.; Feldman, G.C.; McClain, C.; Frouin, R.J.; Merrill, J.; DuBois, D.; Vignola, F.; Murayama, T.; Nickovic, S.; Wilson, W.E.; Sassen, K.; Sugimoto, N.; Malm, W.C.

2001-01-01

On April 15 and 19, 1998, two intense dust storms were generated over the Gobi desert by springtime low-pressure systems descending from the northwest. The windblown dust was detected and its evolution followed by its yellow color on SeaWiFS satellite images, routine surface-based monitoring, and through serendipitous observations. The April 15 dust cloud was recirculating, and it was removed by a precipitating weather system over east Asia. The April 19 dust cloud crossed the Pacific Ocean in 5 days, subsided to the surface along the mountain ranges between British Columbia and California, and impacted severely the optical and the concentration environments of the region. In east Asia the dust clouds increased the albedo over the cloudless ocean and land by up to 10-20%, but it reduced the near-UV cloud reflectance, causing a yellow coloration of all surfaces. The yellow colored backscattering by the dust eludes a plausible explanation using simple Mie theory with constant refractive index. Over the West Coast the dust layer has increased the spectrally uniform optical depth to about 0.4, reduced the direct solar radiation by 30-40%, doubled the diffuse radiation, and caused a whitish discoloration of the blue sky. On April 29 the average excess surface-level dust aerosol concentration over the valleys of the West Coast was about 20-50 ??g/m3 with local peaks >100 ??g/m3. The dust mass mean diameter was 2-3 ??m, and the dust chemical fingerprints were evident throughout the West Coast and extended to Minnesota. The April 1998 dust event has impacted the surface aerosol concentration 2-4 times more than any other dust event since 1988. The dust events were observed and interpreted by an ad hoc international web-based virtual community. It would be useful to set up a community-supported web-based infrastructure to monitor the global aerosol pattern for such extreme aerosol events, to alert and to inform the interested communities, and to facilitate collaborative

Design and skill assessment of an Operational Forecasting System for currents and sea level variability to the Santos Estuarine System - Brazil

Science.gov (United States)

Godoi Rezende Costa, C.; Castro, B. M.; Blumberg, A. F.; Leite, J. R. B., Sr.

2017-12-01

Santos City is subject to an average of 12 storm tide events per year. Such events bring coastal flooding able to threat human life and damage coastal infrastructure. Severe events have forced the interruption of ferry boat services and ship traffic through Santos Harbor, causing great impacts to Santos Port, the largest in South America, activities. Several studies have focused on the hydrodynamics of storm tide events but only a few of those studies have pursued an operational initiative to predict short term (operational forecasting system built to predict sea surface elevation and currents in the Santos Estuarine System and (ii) to evaluate model performance in simulating observed sea surface elevation. The Santos Operational Forecasting System (SOFS) hydrodynamic module is based on the Stevens Institute Estuarine and Coastal Ocean Model (sECOM). The fully automated SOFS is designed to provide up to 71 h forecast of sea surface elevations and currents every day. The system automatically collects results from global models to run the SOFS nested into another sECOM based model for the South Brazil Bight (SBB). Global forecasting results used to force both models come from Mercator Ocean, released by Copernicus Marine Service, and from the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS) stablished by the Center for Weather Forecasts and Climate Studies (with Portuguese acronym CPTEC). The complete routines task take about 8 hours of run time to finish. SOFS was able to hindcast a severe storm tide event that took place in Santos on August 21-22, 2016. Comparisons with observed sea level provided skills of 0.92 and maximum root mean square errors of 25 cm. The good agreement with observed data shows the potential of the designed system to predict storm tides and to support both human and assets protection.

Modeling wind-blown desert dust in the southwestern United States for public health warning: A case study

Science.gov (United States)

Yin, Dazhong; Nickovic, Slobodan; Barbaris, Brian; Chandy, Beena; Sprigg, William A.

A model for simulating desert dust cycle was adapted and applied for a dust storm case in the southwest United States (US). This is an initial test of the model's capability as part of a future public health early warning system. The modeled meteorological fields, which drive a dust storm, were evaluated against surface and upper-air measurement data. The modeled dust fields were compared with satellite images, in situ surface PM2.5 and PM10 data, and visibility data in the areas affected by the dust event. The model predicted meteorological fields reasonably well. The modeled surface and upper-air field patterns were in agreement with the measured ones. The vertical profiles of wind, temperature, and humidity followed closely with the observed profiles. Statistical analyses of modeled and observed meteorological variables at surface sites showed fairly good model performance. The modeled dust spatial distributions were comparable with the satellite-observed dust clouds and the reduced visibility patterns. Most encouragingly, the model-predicted and observed PM2.5 peak hours matched reasonably well. The model produced better PM2.5 peak hours than PM10 peak hours. The temporal varying trends of daily and hourly PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations at most of the measurement sites were similar to those observed. Discrepancies between the values of the modeled and the measured surface PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations differed with time and location. Sometimes the modeled and measured concentrations can have one order of magnitude differences. These revealed there were possible deficiencies in the simulation of the dust production strength and location, and the representation of dust particle size in the modeling. Better land surface data and size representation of the dust production are expected to further improve model performance.

Quantifying dust plume formation and aerosol size distribution during the Saharan Mineral Dust Experiment in North Africa

KAUST Repository

Khan, Basit Ali

2015-01-01

Dust particles mixed in the free troposphere have longer lifetimes than airborne particles near the surface. Their cumulative radiative impact on earth’s meteorological processes and climate might be significant despite their relatively small contribution to total dust abundance. One example is the elevated dust--laden Saharan Air Layer (SAL) over the equatorial North Atlantic, which cools the sea surface and likely suppresses hurricane activity. To understand the formation mechanisms of SAL, we combine model simulations and dust observations collected during the first stage of the Saharan Mineral Dust Experiment (SAMUM--I), which sampled dust events that extended from Morocco to Portugal, and investigated the spatial distribution and the microphysical, optical, chemical, and radiative properties of Saharan mineral dust. We employed the Weather Research Forecast model coupled with the Chemistry/Aerosol module (WRF--Chem) to reproduce the meteorological environment and spatial and size distributions of dust. The experimental domain covers northwest Africa including the southern Sahara, Morocco and part of the Atlantic Ocean with 5 km horizontal grid spacing and 51 vertical layers. The experiments were run from 20 May to 9 June 2006, covering the period of most intensive dust outbreaks. Comparisons of model results with available airborne and ground--based observations show that WRF--Chem reproduces observed meteorological fields as well as aerosol distribution across the entire region and along the airplane’s tracks. We evaluated several aerosol uplift processes and found that orographic lifting, aerosol transport through the land/sea interface with steep gradients of meteorological characteristics, and interaction of sea breezes with the continental outflow are key mechanisms that form a surface--detached aerosol plume over the ocean. Comparisons of simulated dust size distributions with airplane and ground--based observations are generally good, but suggest

Saharan and Arabian Dust Aerosols: A Comparative Case Study of Lidar Ratio

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Córdoba-Jabonero Carmen

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This work presents a first comparative study of the Lidar Ratio (LR values obtained for dust particles in two singular dust-influenced regions: the Canary Islands (Spain, close to the African coast in the North Atlantic Ocean, frequently affected by Saharan dust intrusions, and the Kuwait area (Arabian Peninsula as usually influenced by Arabian dust storms. Synergetic lidar and sun-photometry measurements are carried out in two stations located in these particular regions for that purpose. Several dusty cases were observed during 2014 in both stations and, just for illustration, two specific dusty case studies have been selected and analyzed to be shown in this work. In general, mean LR values of 54 sr and 40 sr were obtained in these studies cases for Saharan and Arabian dust particles, respectively. Indeed, these results are in agreement with other studies performed for dust particles arriving from similar desert areas. In particular, the disparity found in Saharan and Arabian dust LR values can be based on the singular composition of the suspended dust aerosols over each station. These results can be useful for CALIPSO extinction retrievals, where a single LR value (40 sr is assumed for pure dust particles independently on the dust source region.

The Use of OMPS Near Real Time Products in Volcanic Cloud Risk Mitigation and Smoke/Dust Air Quality Assessments

Science.gov (United States)

Seftor, C. J.; Krotkov, N. A.; McPeters, R. D.; Li, J. Y.; Durbin, P. B.

2015-12-01

Near real time (NRT) SO2 and aerosol index (AI) imagery from Aura's Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) has proven invaluable in mitigating the risk posed to air traffic by SO2 and ash clouds from volcanic eruptions. The OMI products, generated as part of NASA's Land, Atmosphere Near real-time Capability for EOS (LANCE) NRT system and available through LANCE and both NOAA's NESDIS and ESA's Support to Aviation Control Service (SACS) portals, are used to monitor the current location of volcanic clouds and to provide input into Volcanic Ash (VA) advisory forecasts. NRT products have recently been developed using data from the Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite onboard the Suomi NPP platform; they are currently being made available through the SACS portal and will shortly be incorporated into the LANCE NRT system. We will show examples of the use of OMPS NRT SO2 and AI imagery to monitor recent volcanic eruption events. We will also demonstrate the usefulness of OMPS AI imagery to detect and track dust storms and smoke from fires, and how this information can be used to forecast their impact on air quality in areas far removed from their source. Finally, we will show SO2 and AI imagery generated from our OMPS Direct Broadcast data to highlight the capability of our real time system.

Positive response of Indian summer rainfall to Middle East dust

KAUST Repository

Jin, Qinjian

2014-06-02

Using observational and reanalyses data, we investigated the impact of dust aerosols over the Middle East and the Arabian Sea (AS) on the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall. Satellite and aerosol reanalysis data show extremely heavy aerosol loading, mainly mineral dust, over the Middle East and AS during the ISM season. Multivariate empirical orthogonal function analyses suggest an aerosol-monsoon connection. This connection may be attributed to dust-induced atmospheric heating centered over the Iranian Plateau (IP), which enhances the meridional thermal contrast and strengthens the ISM circulation and rainfall. The enhanced circulation further transports more dust to the AS and IP, heating the atmosphere (positive feedback). The aerosols over the AS and the Arabian Peninsula have a significant correlation with rainfall over central and eastern India about 2 weeks later. This finding highlights the nonlocal radiative effect of dust on the ISM circulation and rainfall and may improve ISM rainfall forecasts. © 2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

Positive response of Indian summer rainfall to Middle East dust

KAUST Repository

Jin, Qinjian; Wei, Jiangfeng; Yang, Zong-Liang

2014-01-01

Using observational and reanalyses data, we investigated the impact of dust aerosols over the Middle East and the Arabian Sea (AS) on the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall. Satellite and aerosol reanalysis data show extremely heavy aerosol loading, mainly mineral dust, over the Middle East and AS during the ISM season. Multivariate empirical orthogonal function analyses suggest an aerosol-monsoon connection. This connection may be attributed to dust-induced atmospheric heating centered over the Iranian Plateau (IP), which enhances the meridional thermal contrast and strengthens the ISM circulation and rainfall. The enhanced circulation further transports more dust to the AS and IP, heating the atmosphere (positive feedback). The aerosols over the AS and the Arabian Peninsula have a significant correlation with rainfall over central and eastern India about 2 weeks later. This finding highlights the nonlocal radiative effect of dust on the ISM circulation and rainfall and may improve ISM rainfall forecasts. © 2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

Storms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kai, Keizo; Melrose, D.B.; Suzuki, S.

1985-01-01

At metre and decametre wavelengths long-lasting solar radio emission, consisting of thousands of short-lived spikes superimposed on a slowly varying continuum, is observed. This type of storm emission may continue for periods ranging from a few hours to several days; the long duration is one of the characteristics which distinguish storms from other types of solar radio emission. These events are called storms or noise storms by analogy with geomagnetic storms. (author)

Diagnosis and Modeling of the Explosive Development of Winter Storms: Sensitivity to PBL Schemes

Science.gov (United States)

Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Pradhan, Prabodha K.

2014-05-01

The correct representation of extreme windstorms in regional models is of great importance for impact studies of climate change. The Iberian Peninsula has recently witnessed major damage from winter extratropical intense cyclones like Klaus (January 2009), Xynthia (February 2010) and Gong (January 2013) which formed over the mid-Atlantic, experienced explosive intensification while travelling eastwards at lower latitudes than usual [Liberato et al. 2011; 2013]. In this paper the explosive development of these storms is simulated by the advanced mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF v 3.4.1), initialized with NCEP Final Analysis (FNL) data as initial and lateral boundary conditions (boundary conditions updated in every 3 hours intervals). The simulation experiments are conducted with two domains, a coarser (25km) and nested (8.333km), covering the entire North Atlantic and Iberian Peninsula region. The characteristics of these storms (e.g. wind speed, precipitation) are studied from WRF model and compared with multiple observations. In this context simulations with different Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) schemes are performed. This approach aims at understanding which mechanisms favor the explosive intensification of these storms at a lower than usual latitudes, thus improving the knowledge of atmospheric dynamics (including small-scale processes) on controlling the life cycle of midlatitude extreme storms and contributing to the improvement in predictability and in our ability to forecast storms' impacts over Iberian Peninsula. Acknowledgments: This work was partially supported by FEDER (Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional) funds through the COMPETE (Programa Operacional Factores de Competitividade) and by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project STORMEx FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER- 019524 (PTDC/AAC-CLI/121339/2010). References: Liberato M.L.R., J.G. Pinto, I.F. Trigo, R.M. Trigo (2011) Klaus - an

Properties of Aerosols during a Dust Storm over the Beijing Area,

Science.gov (United States)

1983-12-12

THE BEIJING AREA by Zhou Mingyu , Qu Shaohou, et al DTIC S ELECTE JAN 04 1984 N Lum E Approved for public release; distribution unlimited. 84 01 04 015...STORM OVER THE BEIJING AREA By: Zhou Mingyu , Qu Shaohou, et al. English~ pages: 22 Source: Huanjing Kexue Xuebao, Vol. 1, Nr. 3, September 1981, pp... Mingyu , Qu Shaohou, Song Ximing, Li Yuying, Yang Shaojin and Qian Qinfang Zhou, Qu, Song and Li of Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy

Atmospheric Motion Vectors from INSAT-3D: Initial quality assessment and its impact on track forecast of cyclonic storm NANAUK

Science.gov (United States)

Deb, S. K.; Kishtawal, C. M.; Kumar, Prashant; Kiran Kumar, A. S.; Pal, P. K.; Kaushik, Nitesh; Sangar, Ghansham

2016-03-01

The advanced Indian meteorological geostationary satellite INSAT-3D was launched on 26 July 2013 with an improved imager and an infrared sounder and is placed at 82°E over the Indian Ocean region. With the advancement in retrieval techniques of different atmospheric parameters and with improved imager data have enhanced the scope for better understanding of the different tropical atmospheric processes over this region. The retrieval techniques and accuracy of one such parameter, Atmospheric Motion Vectors (AMV) has improved significantly with the availability of improved spatial resolution data along with more options of spectral channels in the INSAT-3D imager. The present work is mainly focused on providing brief descriptions of INSAT-3D data and AMV derivation processes using these data. It also discussed the initial quality assessment of INSAT-3D AMVs for a period of six months starting from 01 February 2014 to 31 July 2014 with other independent observations: i) Meteosat-7 AMVs available over this region, ii) in-situ radiosonde wind measurements, iii) cloud tracked winds from Multi-angle Imaging Spectro-Radiometer (MISR) and iv) numerical model analysis. It is observed from this study that the qualities of newly derived INSAT-3D AMVs are comparable with existing two versions of Meteosat-7 AMVs over this region. To demonstrate its initial application, INSAT-3D AMVs are assimilated in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and it is found that the assimilation of newly derived AMVs has helped in reduction of track forecast errors of the recent cyclonic storm NANAUK over the Arabian Sea. Though, the present study is limited to its application to one case study, however, it will provide some guidance to the operational agencies for implementation of this new AMV dataset for future applications in the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) over the south Asia region.

The DREAMS experiment flown on the ExoMars 2016 mission for the study of Martian environment during the dust storm season

Science.gov (United States)

Bettanini, C.; Esposito, F.; Debei, S.; Molfese, C.; Colombatti, G.; Aboudan, A.; Brucato, J. R.; Cortecchia, F.; di Achille, G.; Guizzo, G. P.; Friso, E.; Ferri, F.; Marty, L.; Mennella, V.; Molinaro, R.; Schipani, P.; Silvestro, S.; Mugnuolo, R.; Pirrotta, S.; Marchetti, E.; International Dreams Team

2018-07-01

The DREAMS (Dust characterization, Risk assessment and Environment Analyser on the Martian Surface) instrument on Schiaparelli lander of ExoMars 2016 mission was an autonomous meteorological station designed to completely characterize the Martian atmosphere on surface, acquiring data not only on temperature, pressure, humidity, wind speed and its direction, but also on solar irradiance, dust opacity and atmospheric electrification; this comprehensive set of parameters would assist the quantification of risks and hazards for future manned exploration missions mainly related to the presence of airborne dust. Schiaparelli landing on Mars was in fact scheduled during the foreseen dust storm season (October 2016 in Meridiani Planum) allowing DREAMS to directly measure the characteristics of such extremely harsh environment. DREAMS instrument’s architecture was based on a modular design developing custom boards for analog and digital channel conditioning, power distribution, on board data handling and communication with the lander. The boards, connected through a common backbone, were hosted in a central electronic unit assembly and connected to the external sensors with dedicated harness. Designed with very limited mass and an optimized energy consumption, DREAMS was successfully tested to operate autonomously, relying on its own power supply, for at least two Martian days (sols) after landing on the planet. A total of three flight models were fully qualified before launch through an extensive test campaign comprising electrical and functional testing, EMC verification and mechanical and thermal vacuum cycling; furthermore following the requirements for planetary protection, contamination control activities and assay sampling were conducted before model delivery for final integration on spacecraft. During the six months cruise to Mars following the successful launch of ExoMars on 14th March 2016, periodic check outs were conducted to verify instrument health check and

Transportation and Bioavailability of Copper and Zinc in a Storm Water Retention Pond

Science.gov (United States)

Camponelli, K.; Casey, R. E.; Wright, M. E.; Lev, S. M.; Landa, E. R.

2006-05-01

Highway runoff has been identified as a non-point source of metals to storm water retention ponds. Zinc and copper are major components of tires and brake pads, respectively. As these automobile parts degrade, they deposit particulates onto the roadway surface. During a storm event, these metal containing particulates are washed into a storm water retention pond where they can then accumulate over time. These metals may be available to organisms inhabiting the pond and surrounding areas. This study focuses on tracking the metals from their deposition on the roadway to their transport and accumulation into a retention pond. The retention pond is located in Owings Mills, MD and collects runoff from an adjacent four lane highway. Pond sediments, background soils, road dust samples, and storm events were collected and analyzed. Copper and zinc concentrations in the pond sediments are higher than local background soils indicating that the pond is storing anthropogenically derived metals. Storm event samples also reveal elevated levels of copper and zinc transported through runoff, along with a large concentration of total suspended solids. After looking at the particulate and dissolved fractions of both metals in the runoff, the majority of the Zn and Cu are in the particulate fraction. Changes in TSS are proportional with changes in particulate bound Zn, indicating that the solid particulates that are entering into the pond are a major contributor of the total metal loading. Sequential extractions carried out on the road dust show that the majority of zinc is extracted in the second and third fractions and could become available to organisms in the pond. There is a small amount of Cu that is being released in the more available stages of the procedure; however the bulk of the Cu is seen in the more recalcitrant steps. In the pond sediments however, both Cu and Zn are only being released from the sediments in the later steps and are most likely not highly available.

Possible influences of Asian dust aerosols on cloud properties and radiative forcing observed from MODIS and CERES

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Jianping; Minnis, Patrick; Lin, Bing; Wang, Tianhe; Yi, Yuhong; Hu, Yongxiang; Sun-Mack, Sunny; Ayers, Kirk

2006-03-01

The effects of dust storms on cloud properties and Radiative Forcing (RF) are analyzed over Northwestern China from April 2001 to June 2004 using data collected by the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instruments on the Aqua and Terra satellites. On average, ice cloud effective particle diameter, optical depth and ice water path of cirrus clouds under dust polluted conditions are 11%, 32.8%, and 42% less, respectively, than those derived from ice clouds in dust-free atmospheric environments. Due to changes in cloud microphysics, the instantaneous net RF is increased from -161.6 W/m2 for dust-free clouds to -118.6 W/m2 for dust-contaminated clouds.

Collecting Comet Samples by ER-2 Aircraft: Cosmic Dust Collection During the Draconid Meteor Shower in October 2012

Science.gov (United States)

Bastien, Ron; Burkett, P. J.; Rodriquez, M.; Frank, D.; Gonzalez, C.; Robinson, G.-A.; Zolensky, M.; Brown, P.; Campbell-Brown, M.; Broce, S.;