WorldWideScience

Sample records for downscaled climate change

  1. VALUE - Validating and Integrating Downscaling Methods for Climate Change Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maraun, Douglas; Widmann, Martin; Benestad, Rasmus; Kotlarski, Sven; Huth, Radan; Hertig, Elke; Wibig, Joanna; Gutierrez, Jose

    2013-04-01

    Our understanding of global climate change is mainly based on General Circulation Models (GCMs) with a relatively coarse resolution. Since climate change impacts are mainly experienced on regional scales, high-resolution climate change scenarios need to be derived from GCM simulations by downscaling. Several projects have been carried out over the last years to validate the performance of statistical and dynamical downscaling, yet several aspects have not been systematically addressed: variability on sub-daily, decadal and longer time-scales, extreme events, spatial variability and inter-variable relationships. Different downscaling approaches such as dynamical downscaling, statistical downscaling and bias correction approaches have not been systematically compared. Furthermore, collaboration between different communities, in particular regional climate modellers, statistical downscalers and statisticians has been limited. To address these gaps, the EU Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) action VALUE (www.value-cost.eu) has been brought into life. VALUE is a research network with participants from currently 23 European countries running from 2012 to 2015. Its main aim is to systematically validate and develop downscaling methods for climate change research in order to improve regional climate change scenarios for use in climate impact studies. Inspired by the co-design idea of the international research initiative "future earth", stakeholders of climate change information have been involved in the definition of research questions to be addressed and are actively participating in the network. The key idea of VALUE is to identify the relevant weather and climate characteristics required as input for a wide range of impact models and to define an open framework to systematically validate these characteristics. Based on a range of benchmark data sets, in principle every downscaling method can be validated and compared with competing methods. The results of

  2. Downscaling the climate change for oceans around Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. Chamberlain

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available At present, global climate models used to project changes in climate poorly resolve mesoscale ocean features such as boundary currents and eddies. These missing features may be important to realistically project the marine impacts of climate change. Here we present a framework for dynamically downscaling coarse climate change projections utilising a near-global ocean model that resolves these features in the Australasian region, with coarser resolution elsewhere.

    A time-slice projection for a 2060s ocean was obtained by adding climate change anomalies to initial conditions and surface fluxes of a near-global eddy-resolving ocean model. Climate change anomalies are derived from the differences between present and projected climates from a coarse global climate model. These anomalies are added to observed fields, thereby reducing the effect of model bias from the climate model.

    The downscaling model used here is ocean-only and does not include the effects that changes in the ocean state will have on the atmosphere and air–sea fluxes. We use restoring of the sea surface temperature and salinity to approximate real-ocean feedback on heat flux and to keep the salinity stable. Extra experiments with different feedback parameterisations are run to test the sensitivity of the projection. Consistent spatial differences emerge in sea surface temperature, salinity, stratification and transport between the downscaled projections and those of the climate model. Also, the spatial differences become established rapidly (< 3 yr, indicating the importance of mesoscale resolution. However, the differences in the magnitude of the difference between experiments show that feedback of the ocean onto the air–sea fluxes is still important in determining the state of the ocean in these projections.

    Until such a time when it is feasible to regularly run a global climate model with eddy resolution, our framework for ocean climate change

  3. Climate change assessment for Mediterranean agricultural areas by statistical downscaling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Palatella

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we produce projections of seasonal precipitation for four Mediterranean areas: Apulia region (Italy, Ebro river basin (Spain, Po valley (Italy and Antalya province (Turkey. We performed the statistical downscaling using Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA in two versions: in one case Principal Component Analysis (PCA filter is applied only to predictor and in the other to both predictor and predictand. After performing a validation test, CCA after PCA filter on both predictor and predictand has been chosen. Sea level pressure (SLP is used as predictor. Downscaling has been carried out for the scenarios A2 and B2 on the basis of three GCM's: the CCCma-GCM2, the Csiro-MK2 and HadCM3. Three consecutive 30-year periods have been considered. For Summer precipitation in Apulia region we also use the 500 hPa temperature (T500 as predictor, obtaining comparable results. Results show different climate change signals in the four areas and confirm the need of an analysis that is capable of resolving internal differences within the Mediterranean region. The most robust signal is the reduction of Summer precipitation in the Ebro river basin. Other significative results are the increase of precipitation over Apulia in Summer, the reduction over the Po-valley in Spring and Autumn and the increase over the Antalya province in Summer and Autumn.

  4. Statistically downscaled climate projections to support evaluating climate change risks for hydropower

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brekke, L.

    2008-01-01

    This paper described a web-served public access archive of down-scaled climate projections developed as a tool for water managers of river and hydropower systems. The archive provided access to climate projection data at basin-relevant resolution and included an extensive compilation of down-scale climate projects designed to support risk-based adaptation planning. Downscaled translations of 112 contemporary climate projections produced using the World Climate Research Program's coupled model intercomparison project were also included. Datasets for the coupled model included temperature and precipitation, monthly time-steps, and geographic coverage for the United States and portions of Mexico and Canada. It was concluded that the archive will be used to develop risk-based studies on shifts in seasonal patterns, changes in mean annual runoff, and associated responses in water resources and hydroelectric power management. Case studies demonstrating reclamation applications of archive content and potential applications for hydroelectric power production impacts were included. tabs., figs

  5. Which complexity of regional climate system models is essential for downscaling anthropogenic climate change in the Northwest European Shelf?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathis, Moritz; Elizalde, Alberto; Mikolajewicz, Uwe

    2018-04-01

    Climate change impact studies for the Northwest European Shelf (NWES) make use of various dynamical downscaling strategies in the experimental setup of regional ocean circulation models. Projected change signals from coupled and uncoupled downscalings with different domain sizes and forcing global and regional models show substantial uncertainty. In this paper, we investigate influences of the downscaling strategy on projected changes in the physical and biogeochemical conditions of the NWES. Our results indicate that uncertainties due to different downscaling strategies are similar to uncertainties due to the choice of the parent global model and the downscaling regional model. Downscaled change signals reveal to depend stronger on the downscaling strategy than on the model skills in simulating present-day conditions. Uncoupled downscalings of sea surface temperature (SST) changes are found to be tightly constrained by the atmospheric forcing. The incorporation of coupled air-sea interaction, by contrast, allows the regional model system to develop independently. Changes in salinity show a higher sensitivity to open lateral boundary conditions and river runoff than to coupled or uncoupled atmospheric forcings. Dependencies on the downscaling strategy for changes in SST, salinity, stratification and circulation collectively affect changes in nutrient import and biological primary production.

  6. Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction of Climate Model Outputs for Climate Change Impact Assessment in the U.S. Northeast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, Kazi Farzan; Wang, Guiling; Silander, John; Wilson, Adam M.; Allen, Jenica M.; Horton, Radley; Anyah, Richard

    2013-01-01

    Statistical downscaling can be used to efficiently downscale a large number of General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs to a fine temporal and spatial scale. To facilitate regional impact assessments, this study statistically downscales (to 1/8deg spatial resolution) and corrects the bias of daily maximum and minimum temperature and daily precipitation data from six GCMs and four Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for the northeast United States (US) using the Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction (SDBC) approach. Based on these downscaled data from multiple models, five extreme indices were analyzed for the future climate to quantify future changes of climate extremes. For a subset of models and indices, results based on raw and bias corrected model outputs for the present-day climate were compared with observations, which demonstrated that bias correction is important not only for GCM outputs, but also for RCM outputs. For future climate, bias correction led to a higher level of agreements among the models in predicting the magnitude and capturing the spatial pattern of the extreme climate indices. We found that the incorporation of dynamical downscaling as an intermediate step does not lead to considerable differences in the results of statistical downscaling for the study domain.

  7. Climate change estimates of South American riverflow through statistical downscaling

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Landman, W

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available projections are assimilated into a linear statistical model in order to produce an ensemble of downscaled riverflows in the La Plata Basin and in southern-central Chile. The statistical model uses atmospheric circulation fields (geopotential heights at the 200...

  8. Evaluation of different downscaling techniques for hydrological climate-change impact studies at the catchment scale

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Teutschbein, Claudia [Stockholm University, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm (Sweden); Wetterhall, Fredrik [King' s College London, Department of Geography, Strand, London (United Kingdom); Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrkoeping (Sweden); Seibert, Jan [Stockholm University, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm (Sweden); Uppsala University, Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala (Sweden); University of Zurich, Department of Geography, Zurich (Switzerland)

    2011-11-15

    Hydrological modeling for climate-change impact assessment implies using meteorological variables simulated by global climate models (GCMs). Due to mismatching scales, coarse-resolution GCM output cannot be used directly for hydrological impact studies but rather needs to be downscaled. In this study, we investigated the variability of seasonal streamflow and flood-peak projections caused by the use of three statistical approaches to downscale precipitation from two GCMs for a meso-scale catchment in southeastern Sweden: (1) an analog method (AM), (2) a multi-objective fuzzy-rule-based classification (MOFRBC) and (3) the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM). The obtained higher-resolution precipitation values were then used to simulate daily streamflow for a control period (1961-1990) and for two future emission scenarios (2071-2100) with the precipitation-streamflow model HBV. The choice of downscaled precipitation time series had a major impact on the streamflow simulations, which was directly related to the ability of the downscaling approaches to reproduce observed precipitation. Although SDSM was considered to be most suitable for downscaling precipitation in the studied river basin, we highlighted the importance of an ensemble approach. The climate and streamflow change signals indicated that the current flow regime with a snowmelt-driven spring flood in April will likely change to a flow regime that is rather dominated by large winter streamflows. Spring flood events are expected to decrease considerably and occur earlier, whereas autumn flood peaks are projected to increase slightly. The simulations demonstrated that projections of future streamflow regimes are highly variable and can even partly point towards different directions. (orig.)

  9. Downscaling CESM1 climate change projections for the MENA-CORDEX domain using WRF

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zittis, George; Hadjinicolaou, Panos; Lelieveld, Jos

    2017-04-01

    According to analysis of observations and global climate model projections, the broader Middle East, North Africa and Mediterranean region is found to be a climate change hotspot. Substantial changes in precipitation amounts and patterns and strong summer warming (including an intensification of heat extremes) is a likely future scenario for the region, but a recent uncertainty analysis indicated good model agreement for temperature but much less for precipitation. Although the horizontal resolution of global models has increased over the last years, it is still not adequate for impact and adaptation assessments of regional or national level and further downscaling of the climate information is required. The region is now studied within the CORDEX initiative (Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment) with the establishment of a domain covering the Middle East - North Africa (MENA-CORDEX) region (http://mena-cordex.cyi.ac.cy/). In this study, we present the first climate change projections for the MENA produced by dynamically downscaling a bias-corrected output of the CESM1 global earth system model. For the downscaling, we use a climate configuration of the Weather, Research and Forecasting model (WRF). Our simulations use a standard CORDEX Phase I 50-km grid in three simulations, a historical (1950-2005) and two scenario runs (2006-2100) with the greenhouse gas forcing following the RCP 4.5 and 8.5. We evaluate precipitation, temperature and other surface meteorological variables from the historical using gridded and station observational datasets. Maps of projected changes are constructed for different periods in the future as differences of the two scenarios model output against the data from the historical run. The main spatial and temporal patterns of change are discussed, especially in the context of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change agreement in Paris to limit the global average temperature increase to 1.5 degrees above pre

  10. Climate change effects on extreme flows of water supply area in Istanbul: utility of regional climate models and downscaling method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kara, Fatih; Yucel, Ismail

    2015-09-01

    This study investigates the climate change impact on the changes of mean and extreme flows under current and future climate conditions in the Omerli Basin of Istanbul, Turkey. The 15 regional climate model output from the EU-ENSEMBLES project and a downscaling method based on local implications from geophysical variables were used for the comparative analyses. Automated calibration algorithm is used to optimize the parameters of Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdel-ning (HBV) model for the study catchment using observed daily temperature and precipitation. The calibrated HBV model was implemented to simulate daily flows using precipitation and temperature data from climate models with and without downscaling method for reference (1960-1990) and scenario (2071-2100) periods. Flood indices were derived from daily flows, and their changes throughout the four seasons and year were evaluated by comparing their values derived from simulations corresponding to the current and future climate. All climate models strongly underestimate precipitation while downscaling improves their underestimation feature particularly for extreme events. Depending on precipitation input from climate models with and without downscaling the HBV also significantly underestimates daily mean and extreme flows through all seasons. However, this underestimation feature is importantly improved for all seasons especially for spring and winter through the use of downscaled inputs. Changes in extreme flows from reference to future increased for the winter and spring and decreased for the fall and summer seasons. These changes were more significant with downscaling inputs. With respect to current time, higher flow magnitudes for given return periods will be experienced in the future and hence, in the planning of the Omerli reservoir, the effective storage and water use should be sustained.

  11. Downscaling climate change scenarios for apple pest and disease modeling in Switzerland

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hirschi, M.; Stoeckli, S.; Dubrovský, Martin; Spirig, C.; Calanca, P.; Rotach, M. V.; Fischer, A. M.; Duffy, B.; Samietz, J.

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 3, č. 1 (2012), s. 33-47 ISSN 2190-4979 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA300420806 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : Climate change * downscaling * weather generator * pest and disease model ling * Switzerland Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology http://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/3/33/2012/esd-3-33-2012.pdf

  12. Projection of Climate Change Based on Multi-Site Statistical Downscaling over Gilan area, Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vesta Afzali

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The phenomenon of climate change and its consequences is a familiar topic which is associated with natural disasters such as, flooding, hurricane, drought that cause water crisis and irreparable damages. Studying this phenomenon is a serious warning regarding the earth’s weather change for a long period of time. Materials and Methods: In order to understand and survey the impacts of climate change on water resources, Global Circulation Models, GCMs, are used; their main role is analyzing the current climate and projecting the future climate. Climate change scenarios developing from GCMs are the initial source of information to estimate plausible future climate. For transforming coarse resolution outputs of the GCMs into finer resolutions influenced by local variables, there is a need for reliable downscaling techniques in order to analyze climate changes in a region. The classical statistical methods run the model and generate the future climate just with considering the time variable. Multi-site daily rainfall and temperature time series are the primary inputs in most hydrological analyses such as rainfall-runoff modeling. Water resource management is directly influenced by the spatial and temporal variation of rainfall and temperature. Therefore, spatial-temporal modeling of daily rainfall or temperature including climate change effects is required for sustainable planning of water resources. Results and Discussion: For the first time, in this study by ASD model (Automated regression-based Statistical Downscaling tool developed by M. Hessami et al., multi-site downscaling of temperature and precipitation was done with CGCM3.1A2 outputs and two synoptic stations (Rasht and Bandar Anzali simultaneously by considering the correlations of multiple sites. The model can process conditionally on the occurrence of precipitation or unconditionally for temperature. Hence, the modeling of daily precipitation involves two steps: one step

  13. Analyzing the future climate change of Upper Blue Nile River basin using statistical downscaling techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenta Mekonnen, Dagnenet; Disse, Markus

    2018-04-01

    Climate change is becoming one of the most threatening issues for the world today in terms of its global context and its response to environmental and socioeconomic drivers. However, large uncertainties between different general circulation models (GCMs) and coarse spatial resolutions make it difficult to use the outputs of GCMs directly, especially for sustainable water management at regional scale, which introduces the need for downscaling techniques using a multimodel approach. This study aims (i) to evaluate the comparative performance of two widely used statistical downscaling techniques, namely the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) and the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM), and (ii) to downscale future climate scenarios of precipitation, maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) of the Upper Blue Nile River basin at finer spatial and temporal scales to suit further hydrological impact studies. The calibration and validation result illustrates that both downscaling techniques (LARS-WG and SDSM) have shown comparable and good ability to simulate the current local climate variables. Further quantitative and qualitative comparative performance evaluation was done by equally weighted and varying weights of statistical indexes for precipitation only. The evaluation result showed that SDSM using the canESM2 CMIP5 GCM was able to reproduce more accurate long-term mean monthly precipitation but LARS-WG performed best in capturing the extreme events and distribution of daily precipitation in the whole data range. Six selected multimodel CMIP3 GCMs, namely HadCM3, GFDL-CM2.1, ECHAM5-OM, CCSM3, MRI-CGCM2.3.2 and CSIRO-MK3 GCMs, were used for downscaling climate scenarios by the LARS-WG model. The result from the ensemble mean of the six GCM showed an increasing trend for precipitation, Tmax and Tmin. The relative change in precipitation ranged from 1.0 to 14.4 % while the change for mean annual Tmax may increase from 0.4 to 4.3

  14. Analyzing the future climate change of Upper Blue Nile River basin using statistical downscaling techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Fenta Mekonnen

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is becoming one of the most threatening issues for the world today in terms of its global context and its response to environmental and socioeconomic drivers. However, large uncertainties between different general circulation models (GCMs and coarse spatial resolutions make it difficult to use the outputs of GCMs directly, especially for sustainable water management at regional scale, which introduces the need for downscaling techniques using a multimodel approach. This study aims (i to evaluate the comparative performance of two widely used statistical downscaling techniques, namely the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG and the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM, and (ii to downscale future climate scenarios of precipitation, maximum temperature (Tmax and minimum temperature (Tmin of the Upper Blue Nile River basin at finer spatial and temporal scales to suit further hydrological impact studies. The calibration and validation result illustrates that both downscaling techniques (LARS-WG and SDSM have shown comparable and good ability to simulate the current local climate variables. Further quantitative and qualitative comparative performance evaluation was done by equally weighted and varying weights of statistical indexes for precipitation only. The evaluation result showed that SDSM using the canESM2 CMIP5 GCM was able to reproduce more accurate long-term mean monthly precipitation but LARS-WG performed best in capturing the extreme events and distribution of daily precipitation in the whole data range. Six selected multimodel CMIP3 GCMs, namely HadCM3, GFDL-CM2.1, ECHAM5-OM, CCSM3, MRI-CGCM2.3.2 and CSIRO-MK3 GCMs, were used for downscaling climate scenarios by the LARS-WG model. The result from the ensemble mean of the six GCM showed an increasing trend for precipitation, Tmax and Tmin. The relative change in precipitation ranged from 1.0 to 14.4 % while the change for mean annual Tmax may increase

  15. Comparison of two down-scaling methods for climate study and climate change on the mountain areas in France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piazza, Marie; Page, Christian; Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia; Terray, Laurent; Deque, Michel

    2013-01-01

    Mountain regions are highly vulnerable to climate change and are likely to be among the areas most impacted by global warming. But climate projections for the end of the 21. century are developed with general circulation models of climate, which do not present a sufficient horizontal resolution to accurately evaluate the impacts of warming on these regions. Several techniques are then used to perform a spatial down-scaling (on the order of 10 km). There are two categories of down-scaling methods: dynamical methods that require significant computational resources for the achievement of regional climate simulations at high resolution, and statistical methods that require few resources but an observation dataset over a long period and of good quality. In this study, climate simulations of the global atmospheric model ARPEGE projections over France are down-scaled according to a dynamical method, performed with the ALADIN-Climate regional model, and a statistical method performed with the software DSClim developed at CERFACS. The two down-scaling methods are presented and the results on the climate of the French mountains are evaluated for the current climate. Both methods give similar results for average snowfall. However extreme events of total precipitation (droughts, intense precipitation events) are largely underestimated by the statistical method. Then, the results of both methods are compared for two future climate projections, according to the greenhouse gas emissions scenario A1B of IPCC. The two methods agree on fewer frost days, a significant decrease in the amounts of solid precipitation and an average increase in the percentage of dry days of more than 10%. The results obtained on Corsica are more heterogeneous but they are questionable because the reduced spatial domain is probably not very relevant regarding statistical sampling. (authors)

  16. GPCC - A weather generator-based statistical downscaling tool for site-specific assessment of climate change impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Resolution of climate model outputs are too coarse to be used as direct inputs to impact models for assessing climate change impacts on agricultural production, water resources, and eco-system services at local or site-specific scales. Statistical downscaling approaches are usually used to bridge th...

  17. Rainfall Downscaling Conditional on Upper-air Variables: Assessing Rainfall Statistics in a Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langousis, Andreas; Deidda, Roberto; Marrocu, Marino; Kaleris, Vassilios

    2014-05-01

    Due to its intermittent and highly variable character, and the modeling parameterizations used, precipitation is one of the least well reproduced hydrologic variables by both Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs). This is especially the case at a regional level (where hydrologic risks are assessed) and at small temporal scales (e.g. daily) used to run hydrologic models. In an effort to remedy those shortcomings and assess the effect of climate change on rainfall statistics at hydrologically relevant scales, Langousis and Kaleris (2013) developed a statistical framework for simulation of daily rainfall intensities conditional on upper air variables. The developed downscaling scheme was tested using atmospheric data from the ERA-Interim archive (http://www.ecmwf.int/research/era/do/get/index), and daily rainfall measurements from western Greece, and was proved capable of reproducing several statistical properties of actual rainfall records, at both annual and seasonal levels. This was done solely by conditioning rainfall simulation on a vector of atmospheric predictors, properly selected to reflect the relative influence of upper-air variables on ground-level rainfall statistics. In this study, we apply the developed framework for conditional rainfall simulation using atmospheric data from different GCM/RCM combinations. This is done using atmospheric data from the ENSEMBLES project (http://ensembleseu.metoffice.com), and daily rainfall measurements for an intermediate-sized catchment in Italy; i.e. the Flumendosa catchment. Since GCM/RCM products are suited to reproduce the local climatology in a statistical sense (i.e. in terms of relative frequencies), rather than ensuring a one-to-one temporal correspondence between observed and simulated fields (i.e. as is the case for ERA-interim reanalysis data), we proceed in three steps: a) we use statistical tools to establish a linkage between ERA-Interim upper-air atmospheric forecasts and

  18. Downscaling a Global Climate Model to Simulate Climate Change Impacts on U.S. Regional and Urban Air Quality

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    Trail, M.; Tsimpidi, A. P.; Liu, P.; Tsigaridis, K.; Hu, Y.; Nenes, A.; Russell, A. G.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change can exacerbate future regional air pollution events by making conditions more favorable to form high levels of ozone. In this study, we use spectral nudging with WRF to downscale NASA earth system GISS modelE2 results during the years 2006 to 2010 and 2048 to 2052 over the continental United States in order to compare the resulting meteorological fields from the air quality perspective during the four seasons of five-year historic and future climatological periods. GISS results are used as initial and boundary conditions by the WRF RCM to produce hourly meteorological fields. The downscaling technique and choice of physics parameterizations used are evaluated by comparing them with in situ observations. This study investigates changes of similar regional climate conditions down to a 12km by 12km resolution, as well as the effect of evolving climate conditions on the air quality at major U.S. cities. The high resolution simulations produce somewhat different results than the coarse resolution simulations in some regions. Also, through the analysis of the meteorological variables that most strongly influence air quality, we find consistent changes in regional climate that would enhance ozone levels in four regions of the U.S. during fall (Western U.S., Texas, Northeastern, and Southeastern U.S), one region during summer (Texas), and one region where changes potentially would lead to better air quality during spring (Northeast). We also find that daily peak temperatures tend to increase in most major cities in the U.S. which would increase the risk of health problems associated with heat stress. Future work will address a more comprehensive assessment of emissions and chemistry involved in the formation and removal of air pollutants.

  19. A review of downscaling procedures - a contribution to the research on climate change impacts at city scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smid, Marek; Costa, Ana; Pebesma, Edzer; Granell, Carlos; Bhattacharya, Devanjan

    2016-04-01

    Human kind is currently predominantly urban based, and the majority of ever continuing population growth will take place in urban agglomerations. Urban systems are not only major drivers of climate change, but also the impact hot spots. Furthermore, climate change impacts are commonly managed at city scale. Therefore, assessing climate change impacts on urban systems is a very relevant subject of research. Climate and its impacts on all levels (local, meso and global scale) and also the inter-scale dependencies of those processes should be a subject to detail analysis. While global and regional projections of future climate are currently available, local-scale information is lacking. Hence, statistical downscaling methodologies represent a potentially efficient way to help to close this gap. In general, the methodological reviews of downscaling procedures cover the various methods according to their application (e.g. downscaling for the hydrological modelling). Some of the most recent and comprehensive studies, such as the ESSEM COST Action ES1102 (VALUE), use the concept of Perfect Prog and MOS. Other examples of classification schemes of downscaling techniques consider three main categories: linear methods, weather classifications and weather generators. Downscaling and climate modelling represent a multidisciplinary field, where researchers from various backgrounds intersect their efforts, resulting in specific terminology, which may be somewhat confusing. For instance, the Polynomial Regression (also called the Surface Trend Analysis) is a statistical technique. In the context of the spatial interpolation procedures, it is commonly classified as a deterministic technique, and kriging approaches are classified as stochastic. Furthermore, the terms "statistical" and "stochastic" (frequently used as names of sub-classes in downscaling methodological reviews) are not always considered as synonymous, even though both terms could be seen as identical since they are

  20. Possible impacts of climate change on freezing rain in south-central Canada using downscaled future climate scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. S. Cheng

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Freezing rain is a major atmospheric hazard in mid-latitude nations of the globe. Among all Canadian hydrometeorological hazards, freezing rain is associated with the highest damage costs per event. Using synoptic weather typing to identify the occurrence of freezing rain events, this study estimates changes in future freezing rain events under future climate scenarios for south-central Canada. Synoptic weather typing consists of principal components analysis, an average linkage clustering procedure (i.e., a hierarchical agglomerative cluster method, and discriminant function analysis (a nonhierarchical method. Meteorological data used in the analysis included hourly surface observations from 15 selected weather stations and six atmospheric levels of six-hourly National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP upper-air reanalysis weather variables for the winter months (November–April of 1958/59–2000/01. A statistical downscaling method was used to downscale four general circulation model (GCM scenarios to the selected weather stations. Using downscaled scenarios, discriminant function analysis was used to project the occurrence of future weather types. The within-type frequency of future freezing rain events is assumed to be directly proportional to the change in frequency of future freezing rain-related weather types The results showed that with warming temperatures in a future climate, percentage increases in the occurrence of freezing rain events in the north of the study area are likely to be greater than those in the south. By the 2050s, freezing rain events for the three colder months (December–February could increase by about 85% (95% confidence interval – CI: ±13%, 60% (95% CI: ±9%, and 40% (95% CI: ±6% in northern Ontario, eastern Ontario (including Montreal, Quebec, and southern Ontario, respectively. The increase by the 2080s could be even greater: about 135% (95% CI: ±20%, 95% (95% CI: ±13%, and 45% (95% CI: ±9

  1. Climatic change on the Gulf of Fonseca (Central America) using two-step statistical downscaling of CMIP5 model outputs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribalaygua, Jaime; Gaitán, Emma; Pórtoles, Javier; Monjo, Robert

    2018-05-01

    A two-step statistical downscaling method has been reviewed and adapted to simulate twenty-first-century climate projections for the Gulf of Fonseca (Central America, Pacific Coast) using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate models. The downscaling methodology is adjusted after looking for good predictor fields for this area (where the geostrophic approximation fails and the real wind fields are the most applicable). The method's performance for daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature is analysed and revealed suitable results for all variables. For instance, the method is able to simulate the characteristic cycle of the wet season for this area, which includes a mid-summer drought between two peaks. Future projections show a gradual temperature increase throughout the twenty-first century and a change in the features of the wet season (the first peak and mid-summer rainfall being reduced relative to the second peak, earlier onset of the wet season and a broader second peak).

  2. Using sea surface temperatures to improve performance of single dynamical downscaling model in flood simulation under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Y.; Cheng, C. T.; Hsiao, Y. H.; Hsu, C. T.; Yeh, K. C.; Liu, P. L.

    2017-12-01

    There are 5.3 typhoons hit Taiwan per year on average in last decade. Typhoon Morakot in 2009, the most severe typhoon, causes huge damage in Taiwan, including 677 casualties and roughly NT 110 billion (3.3 billion USD) in economic loss. Some researches documented that typhoon frequency will decrease but increase in intensity in western North Pacific region. It is usually preferred to use high resolution dynamical model to get better projection of extreme events; because coarse resolution models cannot simulate intense extreme events. Under that consideration, dynamical downscaling climate data was chosen to describe typhoon satisfactorily, this research used the simulation data from AGCM of Meteorological Research Institute (MRI-AGCM). Considering dynamical downscaling methods consume massive computing power, and typhoon number is very limited in a single model simulation, using dynamical downscaling data could cause uncertainty in disaster risk assessment. In order to improve the problem, this research used four sea surfaces temperatures (SSTs) to increase the climate change scenarios under RCP 8.5. In this way, MRI-AGCMs project 191 extreme typhoons in Taiwan (when typhoon center touches 300 km sea area of Taiwan) in late 21th century. SOBEK, a two dimensions flood simulation model, was used to assess the flood risk under four SSTs climate change scenarios in Tainan, Taiwan. The results show the uncertainty of future flood risk assessment is significantly decreased in Tainan, Taiwan in late 21th century. Four SSTs could efficiently improve the problems of limited typhoon numbers in single model simulation.

  3. Rainfall Downscaling Conditional on Upper-air Atmospheric Predictors: Improved Assessment of Rainfall Statistics in a Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langousis, Andreas; Mamalakis, Antonis; Deidda, Roberto; Marrocu, Marino

    2015-04-01

    regional level. This is done for an intermediate-sized catchment in Italy, i.e. the Flumendosa catchment, using climate model rainfall and atmospheric data from the ENSEMBLES project (http://ensembleseu.metoffice.com). In doing so, we split the historical rainfall record of mean areal precipitation (MAP) in 15-year calibration and 45-year validation periods, and compare the historical rainfall statistics to those obtained from: a) Q-Q corrected climate model rainfall products, and b) synthetic rainfall series generated by the suggested downscaling scheme. To our knowledge, this is the first time that climate model rainfall and statistically downscaled precipitation are compared to catchment-averaged MAP at a daily resolution. The obtained results are promising, since the proposed downscaling scheme is more accurate and robust in reproducing a number of historical rainfall statistics, independent of the climate model used and the length of the calibration period. This is particularly the case for the yearly rainfall maxima, where direct statistical correction of climate model rainfall outputs shows increased sensitivity to the length of the calibration period and the climate model used. The robustness of the suggested downscaling scheme in modeling rainfall extremes at a daily resolution, is a notable feature that can effectively be used to assess hydrologic risk at a regional level under changing climatic conditions. Acknowledgments The research project is implemented within the framework of the Action «Supporting Postdoctoral Researchers» of the Operational Program "Education and Lifelong Learning" (Action's Beneficiary: General Secretariat for Research and Technology), and is co-financed by the European Social Fund (ESF) and the Greek State. CRS4 highly acknowledges the contribution of the Sardinian regional authorities.

  4. Downscale climate change scenarios over the Western Himalayan region of India using multi-generation CMIP experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Lalu; Meher, Jitendra K.; Akhter, Javed

    2017-04-01

    Assessing climate change information over the Western Himalayan Region (WHR) of India is crucial but challenging task due to its limited numbers of station data containing huge missing values. The issues of missing values of station data were replaced the Multiple Imputation Chained Equation (MICE) technique. Finally 22 numbers of rain gauge stations having continuous data during 1901-2005 and 16 numbers stations having continuous temperature data during 1969-2009 were considered as " reference stations for assessing rainfall and temperature trends in addition to evaluation of the GCMs available in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 3 (CMIP3) and phase 5 (CMIP5) over WRH. Station data indicates that the winter warming is higher and rapid (1.05oC) than other seasons and less warming in the post monsoon season in the last 41 years. Area averaged using 22 station data indicates that monsoon and winter rainfall has decreased by -5 mm and -320 mm during 1901-2000 while pre-monsoon and post monsoon showed an increasing trends of 21 mm and 13 mm respectively. Present study is constructed the downscaled climate change information at station locations (22 and 16 stations for rainfall and temperature respectively) over the WHR from the GCMs commonly available in the IPCC's different generations assessment reports namely 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th thereafter known as SAR, TAR, AR4 and AR5 respectively. Once the downscaled results are obtained for each generation model outputs, then a comparison of studies is carried out from the results of each generation. Finally an overall model improvement index (OMII) is developed using the downscaling results which is used to investigate the model improvement across generations as well as the improvement of downscaling results obtained from the empirical statistical downscaling (ESD) methods. In general, the results indicate that there is a gradual improvement of GCMs simulations as well as downscaling results across generation

  5. Downscaled Climate Change Projections for the Southern Colorado Plateau: Variability and Implications for Vegetation Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garfin, G. M.; Eischeid, J. K.; Cole, K. L.; Ironside, K.; Cobb, N. S.

    2008-12-01

    Recent and rapid forest mortality in western North America and associated changes in fire frequency and area burned are among the chief concerns of ecosystem managers. These examples of climate change surprises demonstrate nonlinear and threshold ecosystem responses to increased temperatures and severe drought. A consistent management request from climate change adaptation workshops held during the last four years in the southwest U.S. is for region-specific estimates of climate and vegetation change, in order to provide guidance for management of federal and state forest, range, and riparian preserves and land holdings. Partly in response to these concerns, and partly in the interest of improving knowledge of potential ecosystem changes and their relationships with observed changes and changes demonstrated in the paleoecological record, we developed a set of integrated climate and ecosystem analyses. We selected five of twenty-two GCMs from the PCMDI archive of IPCC AR4 model runs, based on their approximations of observed critical seasonality for vegetation in the Southern Colorado Plateau (domain: 35°- 38°N, 114°-107°W), centered on the Four Corners states. We used three key seasons in our analysis, winter (November-March), pre-monsoon (May-June), and monsoon (July- September). Projections of monthly and seasonal temperature and precipitation from our five-model ensemble indicate steadily increasing temperatures in our region of interest during the twenty-first century. By 2050, the ensemble projects increases of 3.0°C during May and June, months critical for drought stress and tree mortality, and 4.5-5.0°C by 2090. Projected temperature changes for months during the heart of winter (December and January) are on the order of 2.5°C by 2050 and 3.0°C by 2090; such changes are likely to affect snow hydrology in middle to low elevations in the Southern Colorado Plateau. Summer temperature increases are on the order of 2.5°C (2050) and 4.0°C (2090). The

  6. Projection of wave conditions in response to climate change: A community approach to global and regional wave downscaling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erikson, Li H.; Hemer, M.; Lionello, Piero; Mendez, Fernando J.; Mori, Nobuhito; Semedo, Alvaro; Wang, Xiaolan; Wolf, Judith

    2015-01-01

    Future changes in wind-wave climate have broad implications for coastal geomorphology and management. General circulation models (GCM) are now routinely used for assessing climatological parameters, but generally do not provide parameterizations of ocean wind-waves. To fill this information gap, a growing number of studies use GCM outputs to independently downscale wave conditions to global and regional levels. To consolidate these efforts and provide a robust picture of projected changes, we present strategies from the community-derived multi-model ensemble of wave climate projections (COWCLIP) and an overview of regional contributions. Results and strategies from one contributing regional study concerning changes along the eastern North Pacific coast are presented.

  7. Impacts of climate change on precipitation and discharge extremes through the use of statistical downscaling approaches in a Mediterranean basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piras, Monica; Mascaro, Giuseppe; Deidda, Roberto; Vivoni, Enrique R

    2016-02-01

    Mediterranean region is characterized by high precipitation variability often enhanced by orography, with strong seasonality and large inter-annual fluctuations, and by high heterogeneity of terrain and land surface properties. As a consequence, catchments in this area are often prone to the occurrence of hydrometeorological extremes, including storms, floods and flash-floods. A number of climate studies focused in the Mediterranean region predict that extreme events will occur with higher intensity and frequency, thus requiring further analyses to assess their effect at the land surface, particularly in small- and medium-sized watersheds. In this study, climate and hydrologic simulations produced within the Climate Induced Changes on the Hydrology of Mediterranean Basins (CLIMB) EU FP7 research project were used to analyze how precipitation extremes propagate into discharge extremes in the Rio Mannu basin (472.5km(2)), located in Sardinia, Italy. The basin hydrologic response to climate forcings in a reference (1971-2000) and a future (2041-2070) period was simulated through the combined use of a set of global and regional climate models, statistical downscaling techniques, and a process based distributed hydrologic model. We analyzed and compared the distribution of annual maxima extracted from hourly and daily precipitation and peak discharge time series, simulated by the hydrologic model under climate forcing. For this aim, yearly maxima were fit by the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution using a regional approach. Next, we discussed commonality and contrasting behaviors of precipitation and discharge maxima distributions to better understand how hydrological transformations impact propagation of extremes. Finally, we show how rainfall statistical downscaling algorithms produce more reliable forcings for hydrological models than coarse climate model outputs. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Climate change effects on wildland fire risk in the Northeastern and Great Lakes states predicted by a downscaled multi-model ensemble

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kerr, Gaige Hunter; DeGaetano, Arthur T.; Stoof, Cathelijne R.; Ward, Daniel

    2018-01-01

    This study is among the first to investigate wildland fire risk in the Northeastern and the Great Lakes states under a changing climate. We use a multi-model ensemble (MME) of regional climate models from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) together with the Canadian Forest

  9. A neural network approach to local downscaling of GCM output for assessing wind power implications of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sailor, D.J.; Hu, T.; Li, X.; Rosen, J.N.

    2000-01-01

    A methodology is presented for downscaling General Circulation Model (GCM) output to predict surface wind speeds at scales of interest in the wind power industry under expected future climatic conditions. The approach involves a combination of Neural Network tools and traditional weather forecasting techniques. A Neural Network transfer function is developed to relate local wind speed observations to large scale GCM predictions of atmospheric properties under current climatic conditions. By assuming the invariability of this transfer function under conditions of doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide, the resulting transfer function is then applied to GCM output for a transient run of the National Center for Atmospheric Research coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM. This methodology is applied to three test sites in regions relevant to the wind power industry - one in Texas and two in California. Changes in daily mean wind speeds at each location are presented and discussed with respect to potential implications for wind power generation. (author)

  10. Influences of Regional Climate Change on Air Quality Across the Continental U.S. Projected from Downscaling IPCC AR5 Simulations. Chapter 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nolte, Christopher; Otte, Tanya; Pinder, Robert; Bowden, J.; Herwehe, J.; Faluvegi, Gregory; Shindell, Drew

    2013-01-01

    Projecting climate change scenarios to local scales is important for understanding, mitigating, and adapting to the effects of climate change on society and the environment. Many of the global climate models (GCMs) that are participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) do not fully resolve regional-scale processes and therefore cannot capture regional-scale changes in temperatures and precipitation. We use a regional climate model (RCM) to dynamically downscale the GCM's large-scale signal to investigate the changes in regional and local extremes of temperature and precipitation that may result from a changing climate. In this paper, we show preliminary results from downscaling the NASA/GISS ModelE IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 6.0 scenario. We use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model as the RCM to downscale decadal time slices (1995-2005 and 2025-2035) and illustrate potential changes in regional climate for the continental U.S. that are projected by ModelE and WRF under RCP6.0. The regional climate change scenario is further processed using the Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system to explore influences of regional climate change on air quality.

  11. Creating Dynamically Downscaled Seasonal Climate Forecast and Climate Change Projection Information for the North American Monsoon Region Suitable for Decision Making Purposes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castro, C. L.; Dominguez, F.; Chang, H.

    2010-12-01

    Current seasonal climate forecasts and climate change projections of the North American monsoon are based on the use of course-scale information from a general circulation model. The global models, however, have substantial difficulty in resolving the regional scale forcing mechanisms of precipitation. This is especially true during the period of the North American Monsoon in the warm season. Precipitation is driven primarily due to the diurnal cycle of convection, and this process cannot be resolve in coarse-resolution global models that have a relatively poor representation of terrain. Though statistical downscaling may offer a relatively expedient method to generate information more appropriate for the regional scale, and is already being used in the resource decision making processes in the Southwest U.S., its main drawback is that it cannot account for a non-stationary climate. Here we demonstrate the use of a regional climate model, specifically the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, for dynamical downscaling of the North American Monsoon. To drive the WRF simulations, we use retrospective reforecasts from the Climate Forecast System (CFS) model, the operational model used at the U.S. National Center for Environmental Prediction, and three select “well performing” IPCC AR 4 models for the A2 emission scenario. Though relatively computationally expensive, the use of WRF as a regional climate model in this way adds substantial value in the representation of the North American Monsoon. In both cases, the regional climate model captures a fairly realistic and reasonable monsoon, where none exists in the driving global model, and captures the dominant modes of precipitation anomalies associated with ENSO and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Long-term precipitation variability and trends in these simulations is considered via the standardized precipitation index (SPI), a commonly used metric to characterize long-term drought. Dynamically

  12. Physically-based global downscaling climate change projections for a full century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghan, S J; Shippert, T

    2005-01-01

    A global atmosphere/land model with an embedded subgrid orography scheme is used to simulate the period 1977-2100 using ocean surface conditions and radiative constituent concentrations for a climate change scenario. Climate variables simulated for multiple elevation classes are mapping according to a high-resolution elevation dataset in ten regions with complex terrain. Analysis of changes in the simulated climate leads to the following conclusions. Changes in precipitation vary widely, with precipitation increasing more with increasing altitude in some region, decreasing more with altitude in others, and changing little in still others. In some regions the sign of the precipitation change depends on surface elevation. Changes in surface air temperature are rather uniform, with at most a two-fold difference between the largest and smallest changes within a region; in most cases the warming increases with altitude. Changes in snow water are highly dependent on altitude. Absolute changes usually increase with altitude, while relative changes decrease. In places where snow accumulates, an artificial upper bound on snow water limits the sensitivity of snow water to climate change considerably. The simulated impact of climate change on regional mean snow water varies widely, with little impact in regions in which the upper bound on snow water is the dominant snow water sink, moderate impact in regions with a mixture of seasonal and permanent snow, and profound impacts on regions with little permanent snow

  13. Analysis of the impact of climate change on groundwater related hydrological fluxes: a multi-model approach including different downscaling methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Stoll

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change related modifications in the spatio-temporal distribution of precipitation and evapotranspiration will have an impact on groundwater resources. This study presents a modelling approach exploiting the advantages of integrated hydrological modelling and a broad climate model basis. We applied the integrated MIKE SHE model on a perialpine, small catchment in northern Switzerland near Zurich. To examine the impact of climate change we forced the hydrological model with data from eight GCM-RCM combinations showing systematic biases which are corrected by three different statistical downscaling methods, not only for precipitation but also for the variables that govern potential evapotranspiration. The downscaling methods are evaluated in a split sample test and the sensitivity of the downscaling procedure on the hydrological fluxes is analyzed. The RCMs resulted in very different projections of potential evapotranspiration and, especially, precipitation. All three downscaling methods reduced the differences between the predictions of the RCMs and all corrected predictions showed no future groundwater stress which can be related to an expected increase in precipitation during winter. It turned out that especially the timing of the precipitation and thus recharge is very important for the future development of the groundwater levels. However, the simulation experiments revealed the weaknesses of the downscaling methods which directly influence the predicted hydrological fluxes, and thus also the predicted groundwater levels. The downscaling process is identified as an important source of uncertainty in hydrological impact studies, which has to be accounted for. Therefore it is strongly recommended to test different downscaling methods by using verification data before applying them to climate model data.

  14. Using Statistical Downscaling to Quantify the GCM-Related Uncertainty in Regional Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study of Swedish Precipitation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    There are a number of sources of uncertainty in regional climate change scenarios. When statistical downscaling is used to obtain regional climate change scenarios, the uncertainty may originate from the uncertainties in the global climate models used, the skill of the statistical model, and the forcing scenarios applied to the global climate model. The uncertainty associated with global climate models can be evaluated by examining the differences in the predictors and in the downscaled climate change scenarios based on a set of different global climate models. When standardized global climate model simulations such as the second phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP2) are used, the difference in the downscaled variables mainly reflects differences in the climate models and the natural variability in the simulated climates. It is proposed that the spread of the estimates can be taken as a measure of the uncertainty associated with global climate models. The proposed method is applied to the estimation of global-climate-model-related uncertainty in regional precipitation change scenarios in Sweden. Results from statistical downscaling based on 17 global climate models show that there is an overall increase in annual precipitation all over Sweden although a considerable spread of the changes in the precipitation exists. The general increase can be attributed to the increased large-scale precipitation and the enhanced westerly wind. The estimated uncertainty is nearly independent of region. However, there is a seasonal dependence. The estimates for winter show the highest level of confidence, while the estimates for summer show the least.

  15. Decadal Recruitment and Mortality of Ponderosa pine Predicted for the 21st Century Under five Downscaled Climate Change Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ironside, K. E.; Cole, K. L.; Eischeid, J. K.; Garfin, G. M.; Shaw, J. D.; Cobb, N. S.

    2008-12-01

    Ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa var. scopulorum) is the dominant conifer in higher elevation regions of the southwestern United States. Because this species is so prominent, southwestern montane ecosystems will be significantly altered if this species is strongly affected by future climate changes. These changes could be highly challenging for land management agencies. In order to model the consequences of future climates, 20th Century recruitment events and mortality for ponderosa pine were characterized using measures of seasonal water balance (precipitation - potential evapotranspiration). These relationships, assuming they will remain unchanged, were then used to predict 21st Century changes in ponderosa pine occurrence in the southwest. Twenty-one AR4 IPCC General Circulation Model (GCM) A1B simulation results were ranked on their ability to simulate the later 20th Century (1950-2000 AD) precipitation seasonality, spatial patterns, and quantity in the western United States. Among the top ranked GCMs, five were selected for downscaling to a 4 km grid that represented a range in predictions in terms of changes in water balance. Predicted decadal changes in southwestern ponderosa pine for the 21st Century for these five climate change scenarios were calculated using a multiple quadratic logistic regression model. Similar models of other western tree species (Pinus edulis, Yucca brevifolia) predicted severe contractions, especially in the southern half of their ranges. However, the results for Ponderosa pine suggested future expansions throughout its range to both higher and lower elevations, as well as very significant expansions northward.

  16. Recent Regional Climate State and Change - Derived through Downscaling Homogeneous Large-scale Components of Re-analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Von Storch, H.; Klehmet, K.; Geyer, B.; Li, D.; Schubert-Frisius, M.; Tim, N.; Zorita, E.

    2015-12-01

    Global re-analyses suffer from inhomogeneities, as they process data from networks under development. However, the large-scale component of such re-analyses is mostly homogeneous; additional observational data add in most cases to a better description of regional details and less so on large-scale states. Therefore, the concept of downscaling may be applied to homogeneously complementing the large-scale state of the re-analyses with regional detail - wherever the condition of homogeneity of the large-scales is fulfilled. Technically this can be done by using a regional climate model, or a global climate model, which is constrained on the large scale by spectral nudging. This approach has been developed and tested for the region of Europe, and a skillful representation of regional risks - in particular marine risks - was identified. While the data density in Europe is considerably better than in most other regions of the world, even here insufficient spatial and temporal coverage is limiting risk assessments. Therefore, downscaled data-sets are frequently used by off-shore industries. We have run this system also in regions with reduced or absent data coverage, such as the Lena catchment in Siberia, in the Yellow Sea/Bo Hai region in East Asia, in Namibia and the adjacent Atlantic Ocean. Also a global (large scale constrained) simulation has been. It turns out that spatially detailed reconstruction of the state and change of climate in the three to six decades is doable for any region of the world.The different data sets are archived and may freely by used for scientific purposes. Of course, before application, a careful analysis of the quality for the intended application is needed, as sometimes unexpected changes in the quality of the description of large-scale driving states prevail.

  17. Assessing the impacts of climate change on future precipitation trends based on downscaled cmip5 simulations data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mentgal, A.; Harijan, K.; Uqaili, M.A.

    2017-01-01

    This study investigates future changes in precipitation over the CRB (Columbia River Basin) in both wet (DJF) and dry (JJA) seasons under RCP85 GHG emission scenario. The simulations from four climate models which participated in CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase-5) were downscaled using the BCSD (Bias Correction and Spatial Disaggregation) method. After downscaling, extreme value analysis and MME (Multi Model Ensemble) averaging is performed. This study focuses on computing 2, 5, 10 and 25 years return levels for both winter (DJF) and summer (JJA) seasons. The maximum winter precipitation values for 2, 5, 10 and 25 years return periods have been estimated to be about 112, 127, 148 and 171 mm/day respectively whereas the maximum summer precipitation values for 2, 5, 10 and 25 years return periods are observed to be about 56, 81, 96 and 126 mm/day respectively. The MME average outperformed the individual models in simulating the historical precipitation in both seasons. The MME results showed a consistent and significant increase in the extreme precipitation and decrease in mean precipitation in both future wet and dry seasons. Largest increase in precipitation occurs over the higher elevations of the Cascades Range, Coast Range and the Mountainous Range. (author)

  18. Implications of the methodological choices for hydrologic portrayals of climate change over the contiguous United States: Statistically downscaled forcing data and hydrologic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mizukami, Naoki; Clark, Martyn P.; Gutmann, Ethan D.; Mendoza, Pablo A.; Newman, Andrew J.; Nijssen, Bart; Livneh, Ben; Hay, Lauren E.; Arnold, Jeffrey R.; Brekke, Levi D.

    2016-01-01

    Continental-domain assessments of climate change impacts on water resources typically rely on statistically downscaled climate model outputs to force hydrologic models at a finer spatial resolution. This study examines the effects of four statistical downscaling methods [bias-corrected constructed analog (BCCA), bias-corrected spatial disaggregation applied at daily (BCSDd) and monthly scales (BCSDm), and asynchronous regression (AR)] on retrospective hydrologic simulations using three hydrologic models with their default parameters (the Community Land Model, version 4.0; the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, version 4.1.2; and the Precipitation–Runoff Modeling System, version 3.0.4) over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Biases of hydrologic simulations forced by statistically downscaled climate data relative to the simulation with observation-based gridded data are presented. Each statistical downscaling method produces different meteorological portrayals including precipitation amount, wet-day frequency, and the energy input (i.e., shortwave radiation), and their interplay affects estimations of precipitation partitioning between evapotranspiration and runoff, extreme runoff, and hydrologic states (i.e., snow and soil moisture). The analyses show that BCCA underestimates annual precipitation by as much as −250 mm, leading to unreasonable hydrologic portrayals over the CONUS for all models. Although the other three statistical downscaling methods produce a comparable precipitation bias ranging from −10 to 8 mm across the CONUS, BCSDd severely overestimates the wet-day fraction by up to 0.25, leading to different precipitation partitioning compared to the simulations with other downscaled data. Overall, the choice of downscaling method contributes to less spread in runoff estimates (by a factor of 1.5–3) than the choice of hydrologic model with use of the default parameters if BCCA is excluded.

  19. Downscaled climate change projections over northeastern South Africa: Implications for streamflow

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Mkhwanazi, M

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available health, agriculture and biodiversity. A comprehensive assessment and understanding of the long-term impacts of climate change on water resources is therefore vital. This information, if applied in planning processes and decision making can... of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Barros, V.R., Field, C.B., Dokken, D.J., Mastrandrea, M.D., Mach, K.J., Bilir, T.E., Chatterjee, M., Ebi, K.L., Estrada, Y.O., Genova, R.C., Girma, B...

  20. Downscaling climate change scenarios for apple pest and disease modeling in Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirschi, M.; Stoeckli, S.; Dubrovsky, M.; Spirig, C.; Calanca, P.; Rotach, M. W.; Fischer, A. M.; Duffy, B.; Samietz, J.

    2012-02-01

    As a consequence of current and projected climate change in temperate regions of Europe, agricultural pests and diseases are expected to occur more frequently and possibly to extend to previously non-affected regions. Given their economic and ecological relevance, detailed forecasting tools for various pests and diseases have been developed, which model their phenology, depending on actual weather conditions, and suggest management decisions on that basis. Assessing the future risk of pest-related damages requires future weather data at high temporal and spatial resolution. Here, we use a combined stochastic weather generator and re-sampling procedure for producing site-specific hourly weather series representing present and future (1980-2009 and 2045-2074 time periods) climate conditions in Switzerland. The climate change scenarios originate from the ENSEMBLES multi-model projections and provide probabilistic information on future regional changes in temperature and precipitation. Hourly weather series are produced by first generating daily weather data for these climate scenarios and then using a nearest neighbor re-sampling approach for creating realistic diurnal cycles. These hourly weather series are then used for modeling the impact of climate change on important life phases of the codling moth and on the number of predicted infection days of fire blight. Codling moth (Cydia pomonella) and fire blight (Erwinia amylovora) are two major pest and disease threats to apple, one of the most important commercial and rural crops across Europe. Results for the codling moth indicate a shift in the occurrence and duration of life phases relevant for pest control. In southern Switzerland, a 3rd generation per season occurs only very rarely under today's climate conditions but is projected to become normal in the 2045-2074 time period. While the potential risk for a 3rd generation is also significantly increasing in northern Switzerland (for most stations from roughly 1

  1. Downscaling a global climate model to simulate climate change over the US and the implication on regional and urban air quality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Trail

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Climate change can exacerbate future regional air pollution events by making conditions more favorable to form high levels of ozone. In this study, we use spectral nudging with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model to downscale NASA earth system GISS modelE2 results during the years 2006 to 2010 and 2048 to 2052 over the contiguous United States in order to compare the resulting meteorological fields from the air quality perspective during the four seasons of five-year historic and future climatological periods. GISS results are used as initial and boundary conditions by the WRF regional climate model (RCM to produce hourly meteorological fields. The downscaling technique and choice of physics parameterizations used are evaluated by comparing them with in situ observations. This study investigates changes of similar regional climate conditions down to a 12 km by 12 km resolution, as well as the effect of evolving climate conditions on the air quality at major US cities. The high-resolution simulations produce somewhat different results than the coarse-resolution simulations in some regions. Also, through the analysis of the meteorological variables that most strongly influence air quality, we find consistent changes in regional climate that would enhance ozone levels in four regions of the US during fall (western US, Texas, northeastern, and southeastern US, one region during summer (Texas, and one region where changes potentially would lead to better air quality during spring (Northeast. Changes in regional climate that would enhance ozone levels are increased temperatures and stagnation along with decreased precipitation and ventilation. We also find that daily peak temperatures tend to increase in most major cities in the US, which would increase the risk of health problems associated with heat stress. Future work will address a more comprehensive assessment of emissions and chemistry involved in the formation and removal of air

  2. Impact of climate change on fish population dynamics in the baltic sea: a dynamical downscaling investigation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mackenzie, Brian R; Meier, H E Markus; Lindegren, Martin

    2012-01-01

    Understanding how climate change, exploitation and eutrophication will affect populations and ecosystems of the Baltic Sea can be facilitated with models which realistically combine these forcings into common frameworks. Here, we evaluate sensitivity of fish recruitment and population dynamics...... and the temperature have influenced recruitment for at least 50 years. The three Baltic Sea models estimate relatively similar developments (increases) in biomass and fishery yield during twenty-first century climate change (ca. 28 % range among models). However, this uncertainty is exceeded by the one associated...... to past and future environmental forcings provided by three ocean-biogeochemical models of the Baltic Sea. Modeled temperature explained nearly as much variability in reproductive success of sprat (Sprattus sprattus; Clupeidae) as measured temperatures during 1973-2005, and both the spawner biomass...

  3. The effects of climate downscaling technique and observational data set on modeled ecological responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afshin Pourmokhtarian; Charles T. Driscoll; John L. Campbell; Katharine Hayhoe; Anne M. K. Stoner

    2016-01-01

    Assessments of future climate change impacts on ecosystems typically rely on multiple climate model projections, but often utilize only one downscaling approach trained on one set of observations. Here, we explore the extent to which modeled biogeochemical responses to changing climate are affected by the selection of the climate downscaling method and training...

  4. Downscaling climate change scenarios for apple pest and disease modeling in Switzerland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Hirschi

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available As a consequence of current and projected climate change in temperate regions of Europe, agricultural pests and diseases are expected to occur more frequently and possibly to extend to previously non-affected regions. Given their economic and ecological relevance, detailed forecasting tools for various pests and diseases have been developed, which model their phenology, depending on actual weather conditions, and suggest management decisions on that basis. Assessing the future risk of pest-related damages requires future weather data at high temporal and spatial resolution. Here, we use a combined stochastic weather generator and re-sampling procedure for producing site-specific hourly weather series representing present and future (1980–2009 and 2045–2074 time periods climate conditions in Switzerland. The climate change scenarios originate from the ENSEMBLES multi-model projections and provide probabilistic information on future regional changes in temperature and precipitation. Hourly weather series are produced by first generating daily weather data for these climate scenarios and then using a nearest neighbor re-sampling approach for creating realistic diurnal cycles. These hourly weather series are then used for modeling the impact of climate change on important life phases of the codling moth and on the number of predicted infection days of fire blight. Codling moth (Cydia pomonella and fire blight (Erwinia amylovora are two major pest and disease threats to apple, one of the most important commercial and rural crops across Europe. Results for the codling moth indicate a shift in the occurrence and duration of life phases relevant for pest control. In southern Switzerland, a 3rd generation per season occurs only very rarely under today's climate conditions but is projected to become normal in the 2045–2074 time period. While the potential risk for a 3rd generation is also significantly increasing in northern

  5. “Push” dynamics in policy experimentation: Downscaling climate change adaptation programs in Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam Wellstead

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Policy experiments have often been touted as valuable mechanisms for ensuring sustainability transitions and climate change adaptation. However problems exist both in the definition of ‘experiments’, and in their design and realization. While valuable, most experiments examined in the literature to date have been small-scale micro-level deployments or evaluations of policy tools in which the most problematic element revolves around their “scaling-up” or diffusion. The literature on the subject has generally neglected the problems and issues related to another class of experiments in which macro or meso-level initiatives are ‘scaled-down’ to the micro-level. This paper examines a recent effort of this kind in Canada involving the creation of Regional Adaptation Collaboratives (RACs across the country whose main purpose is to push national level initiatives down to the regions and localities. As the discussion shows, this top-down process has its own dynamics distinct from those involved in ‘scaling up’ and should be examined as a separate category of policy experiments in its own right.

  6. Impact of climate change estimated through statistical downscaling on crop productivity and soil water balance in Southern Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ventrella, D.; Giglio, L.; Charfeddine, M.; Palatella, L.; Pizzigalli, C.; Vitale, D.; Paradisi, P.; Miglietta, M. M.; Rana, G.

    2010-09-01

    The climatic change induced by the global warming is expected to modify the agricultural activity and consequently the other social and economical sectors. In this context, an efficient management of the water resources is considered very important for Italy and in particular for Southern areas characterized by a typical Mediterranean climate in order to improve the economical and environmental sustainability of the agricultural activity. Climate warming could have a substantial impact on some agronomical practices as the choice of the crops to be included in the rotations, the sowing time and the irrigation scheduling. For a particular zone, the impact of climatic change on agricultural activity will depend also on the continuum "soil-plant-climate" and this continuum has to be included in the analysis for forecasting purposes. The Project CLIMESCO is structured in four workpackages (WP): (1) Identification of homogeneous areas, (2) Climatic change, (3) Optimization of water resources and (4) Scenarios analysis. In this study we applied a statistical downscaling method, Canonical Correlation Analysis after Principal Component Analysis filtering, to two sub-regions of agricultural interest in Sicily and Apulia (respectively, Delia basin and Capitanata). We adopt, as large scale predictors, the sea level pressure from the the EMULATE project dataset and the 1000 hPa temperature obtained from the NCEP reanalyses, while the predictands are monthly time series of maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation. As the crop growth models need daily datasets, a stochastic weather generator (the LARS-WG model) has been applied for this purpose. LARS-WG needs a preliminary calibration with daily time series of meteorological fields, that are available in the framework of CLIMESCO project. Then, the statistical relationships have been applied to two climate change scenarios (SRES A2 and B2), provided by three different GCM's: the Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 (Had

  7. Climate change projections for Tamil Nadu, India: deriving high-resolution climate data by a downscaling approach using PRECIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bal, Prasanta Kumar; Ramachandran, A.; Geetha, R.; Bhaskaran, B.; Thirumurugan, P.; Indumathi, J.; Jayanthi, N.

    2016-02-01

    In this paper, we present regional climate change projections for the Tamil Nadu state of India, simulated by the Met Office Hadley Centre regional climate model. The model is run at 25 km horizontal resolution driven by lateral boundary conditions generated by a perturbed physical ensemble of 17 simulations produced by a version of Hadley Centre coupled climate model, known as HadCM3Q under A1B scenario. The large scale features of these 17 simulations were evaluated for the target region to choose lateral boundary conditions from six members that represent a range of climate variations over the study region. The regional climate, known as PRECIS, was then run 130 years from 1970. The analyses primarily focus on maximum and minimum temperatures and rainfall over the region. For the Tamil Nadu as a whole, the projections of maximum temperature show an increase of 1.0, 2.2 and 3.1 °C for the periods 2020s (2005-2035), 2050s (2035-2065) and 2080s (2065-2095), respectively, with respect to baseline period (1970-2000). Similarly, the projections of minimum temperature show an increase of 1.1, 2.4 and 3.5 °C, respectively. This increasing trend is statistically significant (Mann-Kendall trend test). The annual rainfall projections for the same periods indicate a general decrease in rainfall of about 2-7, 1-4 and 4-9 %, respectively. However, significant exceptions are noticed over some pockets of western hilly areas and high rainfall areas where increases in rainfall are seen. There are also indications of increasing heavy rainfall events during the northeast monsoon season and a slight decrease during the southwest monsoon season. Such an approach of using climate models may maximize the utility of high-resolution climate change information for impact-adaptation-vulnerability assessments.

  8. Assessing drought risk under climate change in the US Great Plains via evaporative demand from downscaled GCM projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dewes, C.; Rangwala, I.; Hobbins, M.; Barsugli, J. J.

    2016-12-01

    Drought conditions in the US Great Plains occur primarily in response to periods of low precipitation, but they can be exacerbated by enhanced evaporative demand (E0) during periods of elevated temperatures, radiation, advection, and/or decreased humidity. A number of studies project severe to unprecedented drought conditions for this region later in the 21st century. Yet, we have found that methodological choices in the estimation of E0 and the selection of global climate model (GCM) output account for large uncertainties in projections of drought risk. Furthermore, the coarse resolution of GCMs offers little usability for drought risk assessments applied to socio-ecological systems, and users of climate data for that purpose tend to prefer existing downscaled products. Here we derive a physically based estimation of E0 - the FAO56 Penman-Monteith reference evapotranspiration - using driving variables from the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) dataset, which have a spatial resolution of approximately 4 km. We select downscaled outputs from five CMIP5 GCMs, whereby we aim to represent different scenarios for the future of the Great Plains region (e.g. warm/wet, hot/dry, etc.). While this downscaling methodology removes GCM bias relative to a gridded product for historical data (METDATA), we first examine the remaining bias relative to ground (point) estimates of E0. Next we assess whether the downscaled products preserve the variability of their parent GCMs, in both historical and future (RCP8.5) projections. We then use the E0 estimates to compute multi-scale time series of drought indices such as the Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) and the Standardized Precipitation-Evaporation Index (SPEI) over the Great Plains region. We also attribute variability and drought anomalies to each of the driving parameters, to tease out the influence of specific model biases and evaluate geographical nuances of E0 drivers. Aside from improved understanding of

  9. The added value of dynamical downscaling in a climate change scenario simulation:A case study for European Alps and East Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Im, Eun-Soon; Coppola, Erika; Giorgi, Filippo

    2010-05-01

    Since anthropogenic climate change is a rather important factor for the future human life all over the planet and its effects are not globally uniform, climate information at regional or local scales become more and more important for an accurate assessment of the potential impact of climate change on societies and ecosystems. High resolution information with suitably fine-scale for resolving complex geographical features could be a critical factor for successful linkage between climate models and impact assessment studies. However, scale mismatch between them still remains major problem. One method for overcoming the resolution limitations of global climate models and for adding regional details to coarse-grid global projections is to use dynamical downscaling by means of a regional climate model. In this study, the ECHAM5/MPI-OM (1.875 degree) A1B scenario simulation has been dynamically downscaled by using two different approaches within the framework of RegCM3 modeling system. First, a mosaic-type parameterization of subgrid-scale topography and land use (Sub-BATS) is applied over the European Alpine region. The Sub-BATS system is composed of 15 km coarse-grid cell and 3 km sub-grid cell. Second, we developed the RegCM3 one-way double-nested system, with the mother domain encompassing the eastern regions of Asia at 60 km grid spacing and the nested domain covering the Korean Peninsula at 20 km grid spacing. By comparing the regional climate model output and the driving global model ECHAM5/MPI-OM output, it is possible to estimate the added value of physically-based dynamical downscaling when for example impact studies at hydrological scale are performed.

  10. Downscaling climate model output for water resources impacts assessment (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maurer, E. P.; Pierce, D. W.; Cayan, D. R.

    2013-12-01

    Water agencies in the U.S. and around the globe are beginning to wrap climate change projections into their planning procedures, recognizing that ongoing human-induced changes to hydrology can affect water management in significant ways. Future hydrology changes are derived using global climate model (GCM) projections, though their output is at a spatial scale that is too coarse to meet the needs of those concerned with local and regional impacts. Those investigating local impacts have employed a range of techniques for downscaling, the process of translating GCM output to a more locally-relevant spatial scale. Recent projects have produced libraries of publicly-available downscaled climate projections, enabling managers, researchers and others to focus on impacts studies, drawing from a shared pool of fine-scale climate data. Besides the obvious advantage to data users, who no longer need to develop expertise in downscaling prior to examining impacts, the use of the downscaled data by hundreds of people has allowed a crowdsourcing approach to examining the data. The wide variety of applications employed by different users has revealed characteristics not discovered during the initial data set production. This has led to a deeper look at the downscaling methods, including the assumptions and effect of bias correction of GCM output. Here new findings are presented related to the assumption of stationarity in the relationships between large- and fine-scale climate, as well as the impact of quantile mapping bias correction on precipitation trends. The validity of these assumptions can influence the interpretations of impacts studies using data derived using these standard statistical methods and help point the way to improved methods.

  11. Long-range Prediction of climatic Change in the Eastern Seaboard of Thailand over the 21st Century using various Downscaling Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bejranonda, Werapol; Koch, Manfred; Koontanakulvong, Sucharit

    2010-05-01

    validated for years 2001-2006 at selected meteorological stations in the Khlong Yai basin, assuming the IPCC's A1B and A2 emission scenarios. The performance of the monthly climate prediction has been evaluated by comparison with observed data using the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency measure. Among the statistical/stochastical downscaling and the forecasting methods used, the climate prediction by the ARIMA model with ocean indices and CGCM predictor included as external regressors are the most reliable. Thus for the verification period 2001-2006 Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of 0.84, 0.47 and 0.50 are obtained for the minimum and maximum temperatures and the rainfall, respectively, whereas the corresponding 1-year ahead predictions are 0.77, 0.43 and 0.48, respectively. The best external regressor for the prediction of the minimum temperatures in the basin is, surprisingly, the El Niño 1.2 SST anomaly time series; for the prediction of the maximum temperatures, the minimum surface air temperature predictor in CGCM3 (tasmin); and for the prediction of the rainfall, the 850hPa eastward-wind predictor in CGCM3 (p8_uas). Based on year 2000, the downscaling results show that the average minimum temperature will be higher by 0.4 to 5.9 ° C by year 2100, while the average maximum temperature will be rather stable, with only little change between -0.2 to +0.3° C. As for the rainfall at year 2100, a possible change from +0.2 to 12.0 mm/month is obtained. These climate prediction results mean that, although there will be more rainfall in the future, the much higher temperature will lead to more evapotranspiration, i.e. more agricultural water demand. Besides, the increasing rainfall will most likely lead to unexpected flood events in the future that will require precautionary planning at the watershed-scale. This will be further analyzed during the course of the ongoing study using the SWAT hydrological model mentioned above.

  12. Transferability in the future climate of a statistical downscaling method for precipitation in France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dayon, G.; Boé, J.; Martin, E.

    2015-02-01

    A statistical downscaling approach for precipitation in France based on the analog method and its evaluation for different combinations of predictors is described, with focus on the transferability of the method to the future climate. First, the realism of downscaled present-day precipitation climatology and interannual variability for different combinations of predictors from four reanalyses is assessed. Satisfactory results are obtained, but elaborated predictors do not lead to major and consistent across-reanalyses improvements. The downscaling method is then evaluated on its capacity to capture precipitation trends in the last decades. As uncertainties in downscaled trends due to the choice of the reanalysis are large and observed trends are weak, this analysis does not lead to strong conclusions on the applicability of the method to a changing climate. The temporal transferability is then assessed thanks to a perfect model framework. The statistical downscaling relationship is built using present-day predictors and precipitation simulated by 12 regional climate models. The entire projections are then downscaled, and future downscaled and simulated precipitation changes are compared. A good temporal transferability is obtained only with a specific combination of predictors. Finally, the regional climate models are downscaled, thanks to the relationship built with reanalyses and observations, for the best combination of predictors. Results are similar to the changes simulated by the models, which reinforces our confidence in the realism of the models and of the downscaling method. Uncertainties in precipitation change due to reanalyses are found to be limited compared to those due to regional simulations.

  13. Evaluating climate change impacts on streamflow variability based on a multisite multivariate GCM downscaling method in the Jing River of China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhi; Jin, Jiming

    2017-11-01

    Projected hydrological variability is important for future resource and hazard management of water supplies because changes in hydrological variability can cause more disasters than changes in the mean state. However, climate change scenarios downscaled from Earth System Models (ESMs) at single sites cannot meet the requirements of distributed hydrologic models for simulating hydrological variability. This study developed multisite multivariate climate change scenarios via three steps: (i) spatial downscaling of ESMs using a transfer function method, (ii) temporal downscaling of ESMs using a single-site weather generator, and (iii) reconstruction of spatiotemporal correlations using a distribution-free shuffle procedure. Multisite precipitation and temperature change scenarios for 2011-2040 were generated from five ESMs under four representative concentration pathways to project changes in streamflow variability using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for the Jing River, China. The correlation reconstruction method performed realistically for intersite and intervariable correlation reproduction and hydrological modeling. The SWAT model was found to be well calibrated with monthly streamflow with a model efficiency coefficient of 0.78. It was projected that the annual mean precipitation would not change, while the mean maximum and minimum temperatures would increase significantly by 1.6 ± 0.3 and 1.3 ± 0.2 °C; the variance ratios of 2011-2040 to 1961-2005 were 1.15 ± 0.13 for precipitation, 1.15 ± 0.14 for mean maximum temperature, and 1.04 ± 0.10 for mean minimum temperature. A warmer climate was predicted for the flood season, while the dry season was projected to become wetter and warmer; the findings indicated that the intra-annual and interannual variations in the future climate would be greater than in the current climate. The total annual streamflow was found to change insignificantly but its variance ratios of 2011-2040 to 1961-2005 increased

  14. Evaluating climate change impacts on streamflow variability based on a multisite multivariate GCM downscaling method in the Jing River of China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Li

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Projected hydrological variability is important for future resource and hazard management of water supplies because changes in hydrological variability can cause more disasters than changes in the mean state. However, climate change scenarios downscaled from Earth System Models (ESMs at single sites cannot meet the requirements of distributed hydrologic models for simulating hydrological variability. This study developed multisite multivariate climate change scenarios via three steps: (i spatial downscaling of ESMs using a transfer function method, (ii temporal downscaling of ESMs using a single-site weather generator, and (iii reconstruction of spatiotemporal correlations using a distribution-free shuffle procedure. Multisite precipitation and temperature change scenarios for 2011–2040 were generated from five ESMs under four representative concentration pathways to project changes in streamflow variability using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT for the Jing River, China. The correlation reconstruction method performed realistically for intersite and intervariable correlation reproduction and hydrological modeling. The SWAT model was found to be well calibrated with monthly streamflow with a model efficiency coefficient of 0.78. It was projected that the annual mean precipitation would not change, while the mean maximum and minimum temperatures would increase significantly by 1.6 ± 0.3 and 1.3 ± 0.2 °C; the variance ratios of 2011–2040 to 1961–2005 were 1.15 ± 0.13 for precipitation, 1.15 ± 0.14 for mean maximum temperature, and 1.04 ± 0.10 for mean minimum temperature. A warmer climate was predicted for the flood season, while the dry season was projected to become wetter and warmer; the findings indicated that the intra-annual and interannual variations in the future climate would be greater than in the current climate. The total annual streamflow was found to change insignificantly but its

  15. Projecting future precipitation and temperature at sites with diverse climate through multiple statistical downscaling schemes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vallam, P.; Qin, X. S.

    2017-10-01

    Anthropogenic-driven climate change would affect the global ecosystem and is becoming a world-wide concern. Numerous studies have been undertaken to determine the future trends of meteorological variables at different scales. Despite these studies, there remains significant uncertainty in the prediction of future climates. To examine the uncertainty arising from using different schemes to downscale the meteorological variables for the future horizons, projections from different statistical downscaling schemes were examined. These schemes included statistical downscaling method (SDSM), change factor incorporated with LARS-WG, and bias corrected disaggregation (BCD) method. Global circulation models (GCMs) based on CMIP3 (HadCM3) and CMIP5 (CanESM2) were utilized to perturb the changes in the future climate. Five study sites (i.e., Alice Springs, Edmonton, Frankfurt, Miami, and Singapore) with diverse climatic conditions were chosen for examining the spatial variability of applying various statistical downscaling schemes. The study results indicated that the regions experiencing heavy precipitation intensities were most likely to demonstrate the divergence between the predictions from various statistical downscaling methods. Also, the variance computed in projecting the weather extremes indicated the uncertainty derived from selection of downscaling tools and climate models. This study could help gain an improved understanding about the features of different downscaling approaches and the overall downscaling uncertainty.

  16. Climate Change Implications for Tropical Islands: Interpolating and Interpreting Statistically Downscaled GCM Projections for Management and Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azad Henareh Khalyani; William A. Gould; Eric Harmsen; Adam Terando; Maya Quinones; Jaime A. Collazo

    2016-01-01

    statistically downscaled general circulation models (GCMs) taking Puerto Rico as a test case. Two model selection/model averaging strategies were used: the average of all available GCMs and the av-erage of the models that are able to...

  17. A multi-model ensemble of downscaled spatial climate change scenarios for the Dommel catchment, Western Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vliet, M.T.H. van; Blenkinsop, S.; Burton, A.; Harpham, C.; Broers, H.P.; Fowler, H.J.

    2012-01-01

    Regional or local scale hydrological impact studies require high resolution climate change scenarios which should incorporate some assessment of uncertainties in future climate projections. This paper describes a method used to produce a multi-model ensemble of multivariate weather simulations

  18. Statistical downscaling of sea-surface wind over the Peru-Chile upwelling region: diagnosing the impact of climate change from the IPSL-CM4 model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goubanova, K. [CNES/CNRS/IRD/UPS, Laboratoire d' Etudes en Geophysique et Oceanographie Spatiale, Toulouse (France); Instituto del Mar del Peru, Callao (Peru); Echevin, V.; Terray, P. [IPSL/UPMC/IRD, Laboratoire d' Oceanographie et de Climatologie, Experimentation et Approches Numeriques, Paris (France); Dewitte, B. [CNES/CNRS/IRD/UPS, Laboratoire d' Etudes en Geophysique et Oceanographie Spatiale, Toulouse (France); Instituto del Mar del Peru, Callao (Peru); Instituto Geofisico del Peru, Lima (Peru); Codron, F. [UPMC/CNRS, Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, Paris (France); Takahashi, K. [Instituto Geofisico del Peru, Lima (Peru); Vrac, M. [IPSL/CNRS/CEA/UVSQ, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette (France)

    2011-04-15

    The key aspect of the ocean circulation off Peru-Chile is the wind-driven upwelling of deep, cold, nutrient-rich waters that promote a rich marine ecosystem. It has been suggested that global warming may be associated with an intensification of upwelling-favorable winds. However, the lack of high-resolution long-term observations has been a limitation for a quantitative analysis of this process. In this study, we use a statistical downscaling method to assess the regional impact of climate change on the sea-surface wind over the Peru-Chile upwelling region as simulated by the global coupled general circulation model IPSL-CM4. Taking advantage of the high-resolution QuikSCAT wind product and of the NCEP reanalysis data, a statistical model based on multiple linear regressions is built for the daily mean meridional and zonal wind at 10 m for the period 2000-2008. The large-scale 10 m wind components and sea level pressure are used as regional circulation predictors. The skill of the downscaling method is assessed by comparing with the surface wind derived from the ERS satellite measurements, with in situ wind observations collected by ICOADS and through cross-validation. It is then applied to the outputs of the IPSL-CM4 model over stabilized periods of the pre-industrial, 2 x CO{sub 2} and 4 x CO{sub 2} IPCC climate scenarios. The results indicate that surface along-shore winds off central Chile (off central Peru) experience a significant intensification (weakening) during Austral winter (summer) in warmer climates. This is associated with a general decrease in intra-seasonal variability. (orig.)

  19. Climate change effects on wildland fire risk in the Northeastern and Great Lakes states predicted by a downscaled multi-model ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerr, Gaige Hunter; DeGaetano, Arthur T.; Stoof, Cathelijne R.; Ward, Daniel

    2018-01-01

    This study is among the first to investigate wildland fire risk in the Northeastern and the Great Lakes states under a changing climate. We use a multi-model ensemble (MME) of regional climate models from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) together with the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System (CFFWIS) to understand changes in wildland fire risk through differences between historical simulations and future projections. Our results are relatively homogeneous across the focus region and indicate modest increases in the magnitude of fire weather indices (FWIs) during northern hemisphere summer. The most pronounced changes occur in the date of the initialization of CFFWIS and peak of the wildland fire season, which in the future are trending earlier in the year, and in the significant increases in the length of high-risk episodes, defined by the number of consecutive days with FWIs above the current 95th percentile. Further analyses show that these changes are most closely linked to expected changes in the focus region's temperature and precipitation. These findings relate to the current understanding of particulate matter vis-à-vis wildfires and have implications for human health and local and regional changes in radiative forcings. When considering current fire management strategies which could be challenged by increasing wildland fire risk, fire management agencies could adapt new strategies to improve awareness, prevention, and resilience to mitigate potential impacts to critical infrastructure and population.

  20. Does Dynamical Downscaling Introduce Novel Information in Climate Model Simulations of Recipitation Change over a Complex Topography Region?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tselioudis, George; Douvis, Costas; Zerefos, Christos

    2012-01-01

    Current climate and future climate-warming runs with the RegCM Regional Climate Model (RCM) at 50 and 11 km-resolutions forced by the ECHAM GCM are used to examine whether the increased resolution of the RCM introduces novel information in the precipitation field when the models are run for the mountainous region of the Hellenic peninsula. The model results are inter-compared with the resolution of the RCM output degraded to match that of the GCM, and it is found that in both the present and future climate runs the regional models produce more precipitation than the forcing GCM. At the same time, the RCM runs produce increases in precipitation with climate warming even though they are forced with a GCM that shows no precipitation change in the region. The additional precipitation is mostly concentrated over the mountain ranges, where orographic precipitation formation is expected to be a dominant mechanism. It is found that, when examined at the same resolution, the elevation heights of the GCM are lower than those of the averaged RCM in the areas of the main mountain ranges. It is also found that the majority of the difference in precipitation between the RCM and the GCM can be explained by their difference in topographic height. The study results indicate that, in complex topography regions, GCM predictions of precipitation change with climate warming may be dry biased due to the GCM smoothing of the regional topography.

  1. Application of physical scaling towards downscaling climate model precipitation data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaur, Abhishek; Simonovic, Slobodan P.

    2018-04-01

    Physical scaling (SP) method downscales climate model data to local or regional scales taking into consideration physical characteristics of the area under analysis. In this study, multiple SP method based models are tested for their effectiveness towards downscaling North American regional reanalysis (NARR) daily precipitation data. Model performance is compared with two state-of-the-art downscaling methods: statistical downscaling model (SDSM) and generalized linear modeling (GLM). The downscaled precipitation is evaluated with reference to recorded precipitation at 57 gauging stations located within the study region. The spatial and temporal robustness of the downscaling methods is evaluated using seven precipitation based indices. Results indicate that SP method-based models perform best in downscaling precipitation followed by GLM, followed by the SDSM model. Best performing models are thereafter used to downscale future precipitations made by three global circulation models (GCMs) following two emission scenarios: representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 and RCP 8.5 over the twenty-first century. The downscaled future precipitation projections indicate an increase in mean and maximum precipitation intensity as well as a decrease in the total number of dry days. Further an increase in the frequency of short (1-day), moderately long (2-4 day), and long (more than 5-day) precipitation events is projected.

  2. Impact of Climate Change on Natural Snow Reliability, Snowmaking Capacities, and Wind Conditions of Ski Resorts in Northeast Turkey: A Dynamical Downscaling Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Osman Cenk Demiroglu

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Many ski resorts worldwide are going through deteriorating snow cover conditions due to anthropogenic warming trends. As the natural and the artificially supported, i.e., technical, snow reliability of ski resorts diminish, the industry approaches a deadlock. For this reason, impact assessment studies have become vital for understanding vulnerability of ski tourism. This study considers three resorts at one of the rapidly emerging ski destinations, Northeast Turkey, for snow reliability analyses. Initially one global circulation model is dynamically downscaled by using the regional climate model RegCM4.4 for 1971–2000 and 2021–2050 periods along the RCP4.5 greenhouse gas concentration pathway. Next, the projected climate outputs are converted into indicators of natural snow reliability, snowmaking capacity, and wind conditions. The results show an overall decline in the frequencies of naturally snow reliable days and snowmaking capacities between the two periods. Despite the decrease, only the lower altitudes of one ski resort would face the risk of losing natural snow reliability and snowmaking could still compensate for forming the base layer before the critical New Year’s week. On the other hand, adverse high wind conditions improve as to reduce the number of lift closure days at all resorts. Overall, this particular region seems to be relatively resilient against climate change.

  3. Evaluation of water productivity under climate change in irrigated areas of the arid Northwest China using an assemble statistical downscaling method and an agro-hydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Liu; Guo, Zezhong; Huang, Guanhua

    2018-06-01

    The Heihe River Basin (HRB) is the second largest inland river basin, located in the arid region of Northwest China with a serious water shortage. Evaluation of water productivity will provide scientific implications for agricultural water-saving in irrigated areas of the arid region under climate change. Based on observed meteorological data, 23 GCMs outputs and the ERA-40 reanalysis data, an assemble statistical downscaling model was developed to generate climate change scenarios under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5 respectively, which were then used to drive the SWAP-EPIC model to simulate crop growth in the irrigated areas of the middle HRB for the future period from 2018 to 2047. Crop yield showed an increasing trend, while crop water consumption decreased gradually in Gaotai and Ganzhou irrigated areas. The water productivity in future 30 years showed an increasing trend in both Gaotai and Ganzhou areas, with the most significant increase under RCP4.5 scenario, which were both larger than 2 kg m-3. Compared with that of the period from 2012 to 2015, the water productivity during 2018-2047 under three RCP scenarios increased by 9.2, 14.3 and 11.8 % in the Gaotai area, and 15.4, 21.6, 19.9 % in the Ganzhou area, respectively.

  4. Comparison of Explicitly Simulated and Downscaled Tropical Cyclone Activity in a High-Resolution Global Climate Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hirofumi Tomita

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The response of tropical cyclone activity to climate change is a matter of great inherent interest and practical importance. Most current global climate models are not, however, capable of adequately resolving tropical cyclones; this has led to the development of downscaling techniques designed to infer tropical cyclone activity from the large-scale fields produced by climate models. Here we compare the statistics of tropical cyclones simulated explicitly in a very high resolution (~14 km grid mesh global climate model to the results of one such downscaling technique driven by the same global model. This is done for a simulation of the current climate and also for a simulation of a climate warmed by the addition of carbon dioxide. The explicitly simulated and downscaled storms are similarly distributed in space, but the intensity distribution of the downscaled events has a somewhat longer high-intensity tail, owing to the higher resolution of the downscaling model. Both explicitly simulated and downscaled events show large increases in the frequency of events at the high-intensity ends of their respective intensity distributions, but the downscaled storms also show increases in low-intensity events, whereas the explicitly simulated weaker events decline in number. On the regional scale, there are large differences in the responses of the explicitly simulated and downscaled events to global warming. In particular, the power dissipation of downscaled events shows a 175% increase in the Atlantic, while the power dissipation of explicitly simulated events declines there.

  5. Statistical Downscaling Of Local Climate In The Alpine Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaspar, Severin; Philipp, Andreas; Jacobeit, Jucundus

    2016-04-01

    The impact of climate change on the alpine region was disproportional strong in the past decades compared to the surrounding areas, which becomes manifest in a higher increase in surface air temperature. Beside the thermal changes also implications for the hydrological cycle may be expected, acting as a very important factor not only for the ecosystem but also for mankind, in the form of water security or considering economical aspects like winter tourism etc. Therefore, in climate impact studies, it is necessary to focus on variables with high influence on the hydrological cycle, for example temperature, precipitation, wind, humidity and radiation. The aim of this study is to build statistical downscaling models which are able to reproduce temperature and precipitation at the mountainous alpine weather stations Zugspitze and Sonnblick and to further project these models into the future to identify possible changes in the behavior of these climate variables and with that in the hydrological cycle. Beside facing a in general very complex terrain in this high elevated regions, we have the advantage of a more direct atmospheric influence on the meteorology of the exposed weather stations from the large scale circulation. Two nonlinear statistical methods are developed to model the station-data series on a daily basis: On the one hand a conditional classification approach was used and on the other hand a model based on artificial neural networks (ANNs) was built. The latter is in focus of this presentation. One of the important steps of developing a new model approach is to find a reliable predictor setup with e.g. informative predictor variables or adequate location and size of the spatial domain. The question is: Can we include synoptic background knowledge to identify an optimal domain for an ANN approach? The yet developed ANN setups and configurations show promising results in downscaling both, temperature (up to 80 % of explained variance) and precipitation (up

  6. Evaluating the Appropriateness of Downscaled Climate Information for Projecting Risks of Salmonella

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guentchev, Galina S.; Rood, Richard B.; Ammann, Caspar M.; Barsugli, Joseph J.; Ebi, Kristie; Berrocal, Veronica; O’Neill, Marie S.; Gronlund, Carina J.; Vigh, Jonathan L.; Koziol, Ben; Cinquini, Luca

    2016-01-01

    Foodborne diseases have large economic and societal impacts worldwide. To evaluate how the risks of foodborne diseases might change in response to climate change, credible and usable climate information tailored to the specific application question is needed. Global Climate Model (GCM) data generally need to, both, be downscaled to the scales of the application to be usable, and represent, well, the key characteristics that inflict health impacts. This study presents an evaluation of temperature-based heat indices for the Washington D.C. area derived from statistically downscaled GCM simulations for 1971–2000—a necessary step in establishing the credibility of these data. The indices approximate high weekly mean temperatures linked previously to occurrences of Salmonella infections. Due to bias-correction, included in the Asynchronous Regional Regression Model (ARRM) and the Bias Correction Constructed Analogs (BCCA) downscaling methods, the observed 30-year means of the heat indices were reproduced reasonably well. In April and May, however, some of the statistically downscaled data misrepresent the increase in the number of hot days towards the summer months. This study demonstrates the dependence of the outcomes to the selection of downscaled climate data and the potential for misinterpretation of future estimates of Salmonella infections. PMID:26938544

  7. A statistical-dynamical downscaling procedure for global climate simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frey-Buness, A.; Heimann, D.; Sausen, R.; Schumann, U.

    1994-01-01

    A statistical-dynamical downscaling procedure for global climate simulations is described. The procedure is based on the assumption that any regional climate is associated with a specific frequency distribution of classified large-scale weather situations. The frequency distributions are derived from multi-year episodes of low resolution global climate simulations. Highly resolved regional distributions of wind and temperature are calculated with a regional model for each class of large-scale weather situation. They are statistically evaluated by weighting them with the according climate-specific frequency. The procedure is exemplarily applied to the Alpine region for a global climate simulation of the present climate. (orig.)

  8. Uncertainty Assessment of the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Climate Projections (NEX-GDDP) Dataset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Weile; Nemani, Ramakrishna R.; Michaelis, Andrew; Hashimoto, Hirofumi; Dungan, Jennifer L.; Thrasher, Bridget L.; Dixon, Keith W.

    2016-01-01

    The NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset is comprised of downscaled climate projections that are derived from 21 General Circulation Model (GCM) runs conducted under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and across two of the four greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Each of the climate projections includes daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation for the periods from 1950 through 2100 and the spatial resolution is 0.25 degrees (approximately 25 km x 25 km). The GDDP dataset has received warm welcome from the science community in conducting studies of climate change impacts at local to regional scales, but a comprehensive evaluation of its uncertainties is still missing. In this study, we apply the Perfect Model Experiment framework (Dixon et al. 2016) to quantify the key sources of uncertainties from the observational baseline dataset, the downscaling algorithm, and some intrinsic assumptions (e.g., the stationary assumption) inherent to the statistical downscaling techniques. We developed a set of metrics to evaluate downscaling errors resulted from bias-correction ("quantile-mapping"), spatial disaggregation, as well as the temporal-spatial non-stationarity of climate variability. Our results highlight the spatial disaggregation (or interpolation) errors, which dominate the overall uncertainties of the GDDP dataset, especially over heterogeneous and complex terrains (e.g., mountains and coastal area). In comparison, the temporal errors in the GDDP dataset tend to be more constrained. Our results also indicate that the downscaled daily precipitation also has relatively larger uncertainties than the temperature fields, reflecting the rather stochastic nature of precipitation in space. Therefore, our results provide insights in improving statistical downscaling algorithms and products in the future.

  9. Selecting downscaled climate projections for water resource impacts and adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidal, Jean-Philippe; Hingray, Benoît

    2015-04-01

    Increasingly large ensembles of global and regional climate projections are being produced and delivered to the climate impact community. However, such an enormous amount of information can hardly been dealt with by some impact models due to computational constraints. Strategies for transparently selecting climate projections are therefore urgently needed for informing small-scale impact and adaptation studies and preventing potential pitfalls in interpreting ensemble results from impact models. This work proposes results from a selection approach implemented for an integrated water resource impact and adaptation study in the Durance river basin (Southern French Alps). A large ensemble of 3000 daily transient gridded climate projections was made available for this study. It was built from different runs of 4 ENSEMBLES Stream2 GCMs, statistically downscaled by 3 probabilistic methods based on the K-nearest neighbours resampling approach (Lafaysse et al., 2014). The selection approach considered here exemplifies one of the multiple possible approaches described in a framework for identifying tailored subsets of climate projections for impact and adaptation studies proposed by Vidal & Hingray (2014). It was chosen based on the specificities of both the study objectives and the characteristics of the projection dataset. This selection approach aims at propagating as far as possible the relative contributions of the four different sources of uncertainties considered, namely GCM structure, large-scale natural variability, structure of the downscaling method, and catchment-scale natural variability. Moreover, it took the form of a hierarchical structure to deal with the specific constraints of several types of impact models (hydrological models, irrigation demand models and reservoir management models). The implemented 3-layer selection approach is therefore mainly based on conditioned Latin Hypercube sampling (Christierson et al., 2012). The choice of conditioning

  10. Climatic forecast: down-scaling and extremes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deque, M.; Li, L.

    2007-01-01

    There is a strong demand for specifying the future climate at local scale and about extreme events. New methods, allowing a better output from the climate models, are currently being developed and French laboratories involved in the Escrime project are actively participating. (authors)

  11. The Added Value to Global Model Projections of Climate Change by Dynamical Downscaling: A Case Study over the Continental U.S. using the GISS-ModelE2 and WRF Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Racherla, P. N.; Shindell, D. T.; Faluvegi, G. S.

    2012-01-01

    Dynamical downscaling is being increasingly used for climate change studies, wherein the climates simulated by a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) for a historical and a future (projected) decade are used to drive a regional climate model (RCM) over a specific area. While previous studies have demonstrated that RCMs can add value to AOGCM-simulated climatologies over different world regions, it is unclear as to whether or not this translates to a better reproduction of the observed climate change therein. We address this issue over the continental U.S. using the GISS-ModelE2 and WRF models, a state-of-the-science AOGCM and RCM, respectively. As configured here, the RCM does not effect holistic improvement in the seasonally and regionally averaged surface air temperature or precipitation for the individual historical decades. Insofar as the climate change between the two decades is concerned, the RCM does improve upon the AOGCM when nudged in the domain proper, but only modestly so. Further, the analysis indicates that there is not a strong relationship between skill in capturing climatological means and skill in capturing climate change. Though additional research would be needed to demonstrate the robustness of this finding in AOGCM/RCM models generally, the evidence indicates that, for climate change studies, the most important factor is the skill of the driving global model itself, suggesting that highest priority should be given to improving the long-range climate skill of AOGCMs.

  12. Evaluation of the applicability in the future climate of a statistical downscaling method in France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dayon, G.; Boé, J.; Martin, E.

    2013-12-01

    The uncertainties in climate projections during the next decades generally remain large, with an important contribution of internal climate variability. To quantify and capture the impact of those uncertainties in impact projections, multi-model and multi-member approaches are essential. Statistical downscaling (SD) methods are computationally inexpensive allowing for large ensemble approaches. The main weakness of SD is that it relies on a stationarity hypothesis, namely that the statistical relation established in the present climate remains valid in the climate change context. In this study, the evaluation of SD methods developed for a future study of hydrological changes during the next decades over France is presented, focusing on precipitation. The SD methods are all based on the analogs method which is quite simple to set up and permits to easily test different combinations of predictors, the only changing parameter in the methods discussed in this presentation. The basic idea of the analogs method is that for a same large scale climatic state, the state of local variables will be identical. In a climate change context, the statistical relation established on past climate is assumed to remain valid in the future climate. In practice, this stationarity assumption is impossible to verify until the future climate is effectively observed. It is possible to evaluate the ability of SD methods to reproduce the interannual variability in the present climate, but this approach does not guarantee their validity in the future climate as the mechanisms that play in the interannual and climate change contexts may not be identical. Another common approach is to test whether a SD method is able to reproduce observed, as they may be partly caused by climate changes. The observed trends in precipitation are compared to those obtained by downscaling 4 different atmospheric reanalyses with analogs methods. The uncertainties in downscaled trends due to renalyses are very large

  13. Evaluation of a weather generator-based method for statistically downscaling non-stationary climate scenarios for impact assessment at a point scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    The non-stationarity is a major concern for statistically downscaling climate change scenarios for impact assessment. This study is to evaluate whether a statistical downscaling method is fully applicable to generate daily precipitation under non-stationary conditions in a wide range of climatic zo...

  14. Downscaling GISS ModelE Boreal Summer Climate over Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Druyan, Leonard M.; Fulakeza, Matthew

    2015-01-01

    The study examines the perceived added value of downscaling atmosphere-ocean global climate model simulations over Africa and adjacent oceans by a nested regional climate model. NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) coupled ModelE simulations for June- September 1998-2002 are used to form lateral boundary conditions for synchronous simulations by the GISS RM3 regional climate model. The ModelE computational grid spacing is 2deg latitude by 2.5deg longitude and the RM3 grid spacing is 0.44deg. ModelE precipitation climatology for June-September 1998-2002 is shown to be a good proxy for 30-year means so results based on the 5-year sample are presumed to be generally representative. Comparison with observational evidence shows several discrepancies in ModelE configuration of the boreal summer inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ). One glaring shortcoming is that ModelE simulations do not advance the West African rain band northward during the summer to represent monsoon precipitation onset over the Sahel. Results for 1998-2002 show that onset simulation is an important added value produced by downscaling with RM3. ModelE Eastern South Atlantic Ocean computed sea-surface temperatures (SST) are some 4 K warmer than reanalysis, contributing to large positive biases in overlying surface air temperatures (Tsfc). ModelE Tsfc are also too warm over most of Africa. RM3 downscaling somewhat mitigates the magnitude of Tsfc biases over the African continent, it eliminates the ModelE double ITCZ over the Atlantic and it produces more realistic orographic precipitation maxima. Parallel ModelE and RM3 simulations with observed SST forcing (in place of the predicted ocean) lower Tsfc errors but have mixed impacts on circulation and precipitation biases. Downscaling improvements of the meridional movement of the rain band over West Africa and the configuration of orographic precipitation maxima are realized irrespective of the SST biases.

  15. Downscaled and debiased climate simulations for North America from 21,000 years ago to 2100AD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorenz, David J; Nieto-Lugilde, Diego; Blois, Jessica L; Fitzpatrick, Matthew C; Williams, John W

    2016-07-05

    Increasingly, ecological modellers are integrating paleodata with future projections to understand climate-driven biodiversity dynamics from the past through the current century. Climate simulations from earth system models are necessary to this effort, but must be debiased and downscaled before they can be used by ecological models. Downscaling methods and observational baselines vary among researchers, which produces confounding biases among downscaled climate simulations. We present unified datasets of debiased and downscaled climate simulations for North America from 21 ka BP to 2100AD, at 0.5° spatial resolution. Temporal resolution is decadal averages of monthly data until 1950AD, average climates for 1950-2005 AD, and monthly data from 2010 to 2100AD, with decadal averages also provided. This downscaling includes two transient paleoclimatic simulations and 12 climate models for the IPCC AR5 (CMIP5) historical (1850-2005), RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 21st-century scenarios. Climate variables include primary variables and derived bioclimatic variables. These datasets provide a common set of climate simulations suitable for seamlessly modelling the effects of past and future climate change on species distributions and diversity.

  16. Assessment of hi-resolution multi-ensemble statistical downscaling regional climate scenarios over Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dairaku, K.

    2017-12-01

    The Asia-Pacific regions are increasingly threatened by large scale natural disasters. Growing concerns that loss and damages of natural disasters are projected to further exacerbate by climate change and socio-economic change. Climate information and services for risk assessments are of great concern. Fundamental regional climate information is indispensable for understanding changing climate and making decisions on when and how to act. To meet with the needs of stakeholders such as National/local governments, spatio-temporal comprehensive and consistent information is necessary and useful for decision making. Multi-model ensemble regional climate scenarios with 1km horizontal grid-spacing over Japan are developed by using CMIP5 37 GCMs (RCP8.5) and a statistical downscaling (Bias Corrected Spatial Disaggregation (BCSD)) to investigate uncertainty of projected change associated with structural differences of the GCMs for the periods of historical climate (1950-2005) and near future climate (2026-2050). Statistical downscaling regional climate scenarios show good performance for annual and seasonal averages for precipitation and temperature. The regional climate scenarios show systematic underestimate of extreme events such as hot days of over 35 Celsius and annual maximum daily precipitation because of the interpolation processes in the BCSD method. Each model projected different responses in near future climate because of structural differences. The most of CMIP5 37 models show qualitatively consistent increase of average and extreme temperature and precipitation. The added values of statistical/dynamical downscaling methods are also investigated for locally forced nonlinear phenomena, extreme events.

  17. Downscaling of Short-Term Precipitation from Regional Climate Models for Sustainable Urban Planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Holger Hoppe

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available A framework for downscaling precipitation from RCM projections to the high resolutions in time and space required in the urban hydrological climate change impact assessment is outlined and demonstrated. The basic approach is that of Delta Change, developed for both continuous and event-based applications. In both cases, Delta Change Factors (DCFs are calculated which represent the expected future change of some key precipitation statistics. In the continuous case, short-term precipitation from climate projections are analysed in order to estimate DCFs associated with different percentiles in the frequency distribution of non-zero intensities. The DCFs may then be applied to an observed time series, producing a realisation of a future time series. The event-based case involves downscaling of Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF curves based on extreme value analysis of annual maxima using the Gumbel distribution. The resulting DCFs are expressed as a function of duration and frequency (i.e., return period and may be used to estimate future design storms. The applications are demonstrated in case studies focusing on the expected changes in short-term precipitation statistics until 2100 in the cities of Linz (Austria and Wuppertal (Germany. The downscaling framework is implemented in the climate service developed within the EU-project SUDPLAN.

  18. Validation of the Regional Climate Model ALARO with different dynamical downscaling approaches and different horizontal resolutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berckmans, Julie; Hamdi, Rafiq; De Troch, Rozemien; Giot, Olivier

    2015-04-01

    At the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium (RMI), climate simulations are performed with the regional climate model (RCM) ALARO, a version of the ALADIN model with improved physical parameterizations. In order to obtain high-resolution information of the regional climate, lateral bounary conditions (LBC) are prescribed from the global climate model (GCM) ARPEGE. Dynamical downscaling is commonly done in a continuous long-term simulation, with the initialisation of the model at the start and driven by the regularly updated LBCs of the GCM. Recently, more interest exists in the dynamical downscaling approach of frequent reinitializations of the climate simulations. For these experiments, the model is initialised daily and driven for 24 hours by the GCM. However, the surface is either initialised daily together with the atmosphere or free to evolve continuously. The surface scheme implemented in ALARO is SURFEX, which can be either run in coupled mode or in stand-alone mode. The regional climate is simulated on different domains, on a 20km horizontal resolution over Western-Europe and a 4km horizontal resolution over Belgium. Besides, SURFEX allows to perform a stand-alone or offline simulation on 1km horizontal resolution over Belgium. This research is in the framework of the project MASC: "Modelling and Assessing Surface Change Impacts on Belgian and Western European Climate", a 4-year project funded by the Belgian Federal Government. The overall aim of the project is to study the feedbacks between climate changes and land surface changes in order to improve regional climate model projections at the decennial scale over Belgium and Western Europe and thus to provide better climate projections and climate change evaluation tools to policy makers, stakeholders and the scientific community.

  19. Climate Downscaling over Nordeste, Brazil, Using the NCEP RSM97.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Liqiang; Ferran Moncunill, David; Li, Huilan; Divino Moura, Antonio; de Assis de Souza Filho, Francisco

    2005-02-01

    The NCEP Regional Spectral Model (RSM), with horizontal resolution of 60 km, was used to downscale the ECHAM4.5 AGCM (T42) simulations forced with observed SSTs over northeast Brazil. An ensemble of 10 runs for the period January-June 1971-2000 was used in this study. The RSM can resolve the spatial patterns of observed seasonal precipitation and capture the interannual variability of observed seasonal precipitation as well. The AGCM bias in displacement of the Atlantic ITCZ is partially corrected in the RSM. The RSM probability distribution function of seasonal precipitation anomalies is in better agreement with observations than that of the driving AGCM. Good potential prediction skills are demonstrated by the RSM in predicting the interannual variability of regional seasonal precipitation. The RSM can also capture the interannual variability of observed precipitation at intraseasonal time scales, such as precipitation intensity distribution and dry spells. A drought index and a flooding index were adopted to indicate the severity of drought and flooding conditions, and their interannual variability was reproduced by the RSM. The overall RSM performance in the downscaled climate of the ECHAM4.5 AGCM is satisfactory over Nordeste. The primary deficiency is a systematic dry bias for precipitation simulation.

  20. Do downscaled general circulation models reliably simulate historical climatic conditions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bock, Andrew R.; Hay, Lauren E.; McCabe, Gregory J.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Atkinson, R. Dwight

    2018-01-01

    The accuracy of statistically downscaled (SD) general circulation model (GCM) simulations of monthly surface climate for historical conditions (1950–2005) was assessed for the conterminous United States (CONUS). The SD monthly precipitation (PPT) and temperature (TAVE) from 95 GCMs from phases 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5) were used as inputs to a monthly water balance model (MWBM). Distributions of MWBM input (PPT and TAVE) and output [runoff (RUN)] variables derived from gridded station data (GSD) and historical SD climate were compared using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test For all three variables considered, the KS test results showed that variables simulated using CMIP5 generally are more reliable than those derived from CMIP3, likely due to improvements in PPT simulations. At most locations across the CONUS, the largest differences between GSD and SD PPT and RUN occurred in the lowest part of the distributions (i.e., low-flow RUN and low-magnitude PPT). Results indicate that for the majority of the CONUS, there are downscaled GCMs that can reliably simulate historical climatic conditions. But, in some geographic locations, none of the SD GCMs replicated historical conditions for two of the three variables (PPT and RUN) based on the KS test, with a significance level of 0.05. In these locations, improved GCM simulations of PPT are needed to more reliably estimate components of the hydrologic cycle. Simple metrics and statistical tests, such as those described here, can provide an initial set of criteria to help simplify GCM selection.

  1. Coupled Downscaled Climate Models and Ecophysiological Metrics Forecast Habitat Compression for an Endangered Estuarine Fish.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Larry R Brown

    Full Text Available Climate change is driving rapid changes in environmental conditions and affecting population and species' persistence across spatial and temporal scales. Integrating climate change assessments into biological resource management, such as conserving endangered species, is a substantial challenge, partly due to a mismatch between global climate forecasts and local or regional conservation planning. Here, we demonstrate how outputs of global climate change models can be downscaled to the watershed scale, and then coupled with ecophysiological metrics to assess climate change effects on organisms of conservation concern. We employed models to estimate future water temperatures (2010-2099 under several climate change scenarios within the large heterogeneous San Francisco Estuary. We then assessed the warming effects on the endangered, endemic Delta Smelt, Hypomesus transpacificus, by integrating localized projected water temperatures with thermal sensitivity metrics (tolerance, spawning and maturation windows, and sublethal stress thresholds across life stages. Lethal temperatures occurred under several scenarios, but sublethal effects resulting from chronic stressful temperatures were more common across the estuary (median >60 days above threshold for >50% locations by the end of the century. Behavioral avoidance of such stressful temperatures would make a large portion of the potential range of Delta Smelt unavailable during the summer and fall. Since Delta Smelt are not likely to migrate to other estuaries, these changes are likely to result in substantial habitat compression. Additionally, the Delta Smelt maturation window was shortened by 18-85 days, revealing cumulative effects of stressful summer and fall temperatures with early initiation of spring spawning that may negatively impact fitness. Our findings highlight the value of integrating sublethal thresholds, life history, and in situ thermal heterogeneity into global change impact

  2. Coupled downscaled climate models and ecophysiological metrics forecast habitat compression for an endangered estuarine fish

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Larry R.; Komoroske, Lisa M; Wagner, R Wayne; Morgan-King, Tara; May, Jason T.; Connon, Richard E; Fangue, Nann A.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is driving rapid changes in environmental conditions and affecting population and species’ persistence across spatial and temporal scales. Integrating climate change assessments into biological resource management, such as conserving endangered species, is a substantial challenge, partly due to a mismatch between global climate forecasts and local or regional conservation planning. Here, we demonstrate how outputs of global climate change models can be downscaled to the watershed scale, and then coupled with ecophysiological metrics to assess climate change effects on organisms of conservation concern. We employed models to estimate future water temperatures (2010–2099) under several climate change scenarios within the large heterogeneous San Francisco Estuary. We then assessed the warming effects on the endangered, endemic Delta Smelt, Hypomesus transpacificus, by integrating localized projected water temperatures with thermal sensitivity metrics (tolerance, spawning and maturation windows, and sublethal stress thresholds) across life stages. Lethal temperatures occurred under several scenarios, but sublethal effects resulting from chronic stressful temperatures were more common across the estuary (median >60 days above threshold for >50% locations by the end of the century). Behavioral avoidance of such stressful temperatures would make a large portion of the potential range of Delta Smelt unavailable during the summer and fall. Since Delta Smelt are not likely to migrate to other estuaries, these changes are likely to result in substantial habitat compression. Additionally, the Delta Smelt maturation window was shortened by 18–85 days, revealing cumulative effects of stressful summer and fall temperatures with early initiation of spring spawning that may negatively impact fitness. Our findings highlight the value of integrating sublethal thresholds, life history, and in situ thermal heterogeneity into global change impact assessments. As

  3. Statistical downscaling of CMIP5 outputs for projecting future changes in rainfall in the Onkaparinga catchment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rashid, Md. Mamunur, E-mail: mdmamunur.rashid@mymail.unisa.edu.au [Centre for Water Management and Reuse, School of Natural and Built Environments, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, SA 5095 (Australia); Beecham, Simon, E-mail: simon.beecham@unisa.edu.au [Centre for Water Management and Reuse, School of Natural and Built Environments, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, SA 5095 (Australia); Chowdhury, Rezaul K., E-mail: rezaulkabir@uaeu.ac.ae [Centre for Water Management and Reuse, School of Natural and Built Environments, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, SA 5095 (Australia); Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain, PO Box 15551 (United Arab Emirates)

    2015-10-15

    A generalized linear model was fitted to stochastically downscaled multi-site daily rainfall projections from CMIP5 General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the Onkaparinga catchment in South Australia to assess future changes to hydrologically relevant metrics. For this purpose three GCMs, two multi-model ensembles (one by averaging the predictors of GCMs and the other by regressing the predictors of GCMs against reanalysis datasets) and two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were considered. The downscaling model was able to reasonably reproduce the observed historical rainfall statistics when the model was driven by NCEP reanalysis datasets. Significant bias was observed in the rainfall when downscaled from historical outputs of GCMs. Bias was corrected using the Frequency Adapted Quantile Mapping technique. Future changes in rainfall were computed from the bias corrected downscaled rainfall forced by GCM outputs for the period 2041–2060 and these were then compared to the base period 1961–2000. The results show that annual and seasonal rainfalls are likely to significantly decrease for all models and scenarios in the future. The number of dry days and maximum consecutive dry days will increase whereas the number of wet days and maximum consecutive wet days will decrease. Future changes of daily rainfall occurrence sequences combined with a reduction in rainfall amounts will lead to a drier catchment, thereby reducing the runoff potential. Because this is a catchment that is a significant source of Adelaide's water supply, irrigation water and water for maintaining environmental flows, an effective climate change adaptation strategy is needed in order to face future potential water shortages. - Highlights: • A generalized linear model was used for multi-site daily rainfall downscaling. • Rainfall was downscaled from CMIP5 GCM outputs. • Two multi-model ensemble approaches were used. • Bias was corrected using the Frequency Adapted Quantile Mapping

  4. Downscaling NASA Climatological Data to Produce Detailed Climate Zone Maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandler, William S.; Hoell, James M.; Westberg, David J.; Whitlock, Charles H.; Zhang, Taiping; Stackhouse, P. W.

    2011-01-01

    The design of energy efficient sustainable buildings is heavily dependent on accurate long-term and near real-time local weather data. To varying degrees the current meteorological networks over the globe have been used to provide these data albeit often from sites far removed from the desired location. The national need is for access to weather and solar resource data accurate enough to use to develop preliminary building designs within a short proposal time limit, usually within 60 days. The NASA Prediction Of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) project was established by NASA to provide industry friendly access to globally distributed solar and meteorological data. As a result, the POWER web site (power.larc.nasa.gov) now provides global information on many renewable energy parameters and several buildings-related items but at a relatively coarse resolution. This paper describes a method of downscaling NASA atmospheric assimilation model results to higher resolution and maps those parameters to produce building climate zone maps using estimates of temperature and precipitation. The distribution of climate zones for North America with an emphasis on the Pacific Northwest for just one year shows very good correspondence to the currently defined distribution. The method has the potential to provide a consistent procedure for deriving climate zone information on a global basis that can be assessed for variability and updated more regularly.

  5. Temperature Changes In Poland In 21st Century – Results Of Global Simulation And Regional Downscaling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pilarski Michał

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The main source of information about future climate changes are the results of numerical simulations performed in scientific institutions around the world. Present projections from global circulation models (GCMs are too coarse and are only usefulness for the world, hemisphere or continent spatial analysis. The low horizontal resolution of global models (100–200 km, does not allow to assess climate changes at regional or local scales. Therefore it is necessary to lead studies concerning how to detail the GCMs information. The problem of information transfer from the GCMs to higher spatial scale solve: dynamical and statistical downscaling. The dynamical downscaling method based on “nesting” global information in a regional models (RCMs, which solve the equations of motion and the thermodynamic laws in a small spatial scale (10–50 km. However, the statistical downscaling models (SDMs identify the relationship between large-scale variable (predictor and small-scale variable (predictand implementing linear regression. The main goal of the study was to compare the global model scenarios of thermal condition in Poland in XXI century with the more accurate statistical and dynamical regional models outcomes. Generally studies confirmed usefulness of statistical downscaling to detail information from GCMs. Basic results present that regional models captured local aspects of thermal conditions variability especially in coastal zone.

  6. Detailed Urban Heat Island Projections for Cities Worldwide: Dynamical Downscaling CMIP5 Global Climate Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dirk Lauwaet

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available A new dynamical downscaling methodology to analyze the impact of global climate change on the local climate of cities worldwide is presented. The urban boundary layer climate model UrbClim is coupled to 11 global climate models contained in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 archive, conducting 20-year simulations for present (1986–2005 and future (2081–2100 climate conditions, considering the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate scenario. The evolution of the urban heat island of eight different cities, located on three continents, is quantified and assessed, with an unprecedented horizontal resolution of a few hundred meters. For all cities, urban and rural air temperatures are found to increase strongly, up to 7 °C. However, the urban heat island intensity in most cases increases only slightly, often even below the range of uncertainty. A potential explanation, focusing on the role of increased incoming longwave radiation, is put forth. Finally, an alternative method for generating urban climate projections is proposed, combining the ensemble temperature change statistics and the results of the present-day urban climate.

  7. Locally Downscaled and Spatially Customizable Climate Data for Historical and Future Periods for North America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tongli; Hamann, Andreas; Spittlehouse, Dave; Carroll, Carlos

    2016-01-01

    Large volumes of gridded climate data have become available in recent years including interpolated historical data from weather stations and future predictions from general circulation models. These datasets, however, are at various spatial resolutions that need to be converted to scales meaningful for applications such as climate change risk and impact assessments or sample-based ecological research. Extracting climate data for specific locations from large datasets is not a trivial task and typically requires advanced GIS and data management skills. In this study, we developed a software package, ClimateNA, that facilitates this task and provides a user-friendly interface suitable for resource managers and decision makers as well as scientists. The software locally downscales historical and future monthly climate data layers into scale-free point estimates of climate values for the entire North American continent. The software also calculates a large number of biologically relevant climate variables that are usually derived from daily weather data. ClimateNA covers 1) 104 years of historical data (1901-2014) in monthly, annual, decadal and 30-year time steps; 2) three paleoclimatic periods (Last Glacial Maximum, Mid Holocene and Last Millennium); 3) three future periods (2020s, 2050s and 2080s); and 4) annual time-series of model projections for 2011-2100. Multiple general circulation models (GCMs) were included for both paleo and future periods, and two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and 8.5) were chosen for future climate data.

  8. Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate is the average weather in a place over a period of time. Climate change is major change in temperature, rainfall, snow, ... by natural factors or by human activities. Today climate changes are occurring at an increasingly rapid rate. ...

  9. Downscaling Climate Projections to a Mountainous Landscape: A Climate Impact Assessment for the U.S. Northern Rockies Crown of the Continent Ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oyler, J.; Anderson, R.; Running, S. W.

    2010-12-01

    In topographically complex landscapes, there is often a mismatch in scale between global climate model projections and more local climate-forcing factors and related ecological/hydrological processes. To overcome this limitation, the objective of this study was to downscale climate projections to the rugged Crown of the Continent Ecosystem (CCE) within the U.S. Northern Rockies and assess future impacts on water balances, vegetation dynamics, and carbon fluxes. A 40-year (1970-2009) spatial historical climate dataset (800m resolution, daily timestep) was generated for the CCE and modified for terrain influences. Regional climate projections were downscaled by applying them to the fine-scale historical dataset using a modified delta downscaling method and stochastic weather generator. The downscaled projections were used to drive the Biome-BGC ecosystem model. Overall CCE impacts included decreases in April 1 snow water equivalent, less days with snow on the ground, increased vegetation water stress, and increased growing degree days. The relaxing of temperature constraints increased annual net primary productivity (NPP) throughout most of the CCE landscape. However, an increase in water stress seems to have limited the growth in NPP and, in some areas, NPP actually decreased. Thus, CCE vegetation productivity trends under increasing temperatures will likely be determined by local changes in hydrologic function. Given the greater uncertainty in precipitation projections, future work should concentrate on determining thresholds in water constraints that greatly modify the magnitude and direction of carbon accumulation within the CCE under a warming climate.

  10. Statistical downscaling of the French Mediterranean climate: assessment for present and projection in an anthropogenic scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Lavaysse

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The Mediterranean basin is a particularly vulnerable region to climate change, featuring a sharply contrasted climate between the North and South and governed by a semi-enclosed sea with pronounced surrounding topography covering parts of the Europe, Africa and Asia regions. The physiographic specificities contribute to produce mesoscale atmospheric features that can evolve to high-impact weather systems such as heavy precipitation, wind storms, heat waves and droughts. The evolution of these meteorological extremes in the context of global warming is still an open question, partly because of the large uncertainty associated with existing estimates produced by global climate models (GCM with coarse horizontal resolution (~200 km. Downscaling climatic information at a local scale is, thus, needed to improve the climate extreme prediction and to provide relevant information for vulnerability and adaptation studies. In this study, we investigate wind, temperature and precipitation distributions for past recent climate and future scenarios at eight meteorological stations in the French Mediterranean region using one statistical downscaling model, referred as the "Cumulative Distribution Function transform" (CDF-t approach. A thorough analysis of the uncertainty associated with statistical downscaling and bi-linear interpolation of large-scale wind speed, temperature and rainfall from reanalyses (ERA-40 and three GCM historical simulations, has been conducted and quantified in terms of Kolmogorov-Smirnov scores. CDF-t produces a more accurate and reliable local wind speed, temperature and rainfall. Generally, wind speed, temperature and rainfall CDF obtained with CDF-t are significantly similar with the observed CDF, even though CDF-t performance may vary from one station to another due to the sensitivity of the driving large-scale fields or local impact. CDF-t has then been applied to climate simulations of the 21st century under B1 and A2 scenarios

  11. A comparison of dynamical and statistical downscaling methods for regional wave climate projections along French coastlines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laugel, Amélie; Menendez, Melisa; Benoit, Michel; Mattarolo, Giovanni; Mendez, Fernando

    2013-04-01

    Wave climate forecasting is a major issue for numerous marine and coastal related activities, such as offshore industries, flooding risks assessment and wave energy resource evaluation, among others. Generally, there are two main ways to predict the impacts of the climate change on the wave climate at regional scale: the dynamical and the statistical downscaling of GCM (Global Climate Model). In this study, both methods have been applied on the French coast (Atlantic , English Channel and North Sea shoreline) under three climate change scenarios (A1B, A2, B1) simulated with the GCM ARPEGE-CLIMAT, from Météo-France (AR4, IPCC). The aim of the work is to characterise the wave climatology of the 21st century and compare the statistical and dynamical methods pointing out advantages and disadvantages of each approach. The statistical downscaling method proposed by the Environmental Hydraulics Institute of Cantabria (Spain) has been applied (Menendez et al., 2011). At a particular location, the sea-state climate (Predictand Y) is defined as a function, Y=f(X), of several atmospheric circulation patterns (Predictor X). Assuming these climate associations between predictor and predictand are stationary, the statistical approach has been used to project the future wave conditions with reference to the GCM. The statistical relations between predictor and predictand have been established over 31 years, from 1979 to 2009. The predictor is built as the 3-days-averaged squared sea level pressure gradient from the hourly CFSR database (Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, http://cfs.ncep.noaa.gov/cfsr/). The predictand has been extracted from the 31-years hindcast sea-state database ANEMOC-2 performed with the 3G spectral wave model TOMAWAC (Benoit et al., 1996), developed at EDF R&D LNHE and Saint-Venant Laboratory for Hydraulics and forced by the CFSR 10m wind field. Significant wave height, peak period and mean wave direction have been extracted with an hourly-resolution at

  12. Evaluation of downscaled, gridded climate data for the conterminous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert J. Behnke,; Stephen J. Vavrus,; Andrew Allstadt,; Thomas P. Albright,; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Volker C. Radeloff,

    2016-01-01

    Weather and climate affect many ecological processes, making spatially continuous yet fine-resolution weather data desirable for ecological research and predictions. Numerous downscaled weather data sets exist, but little attempt has been made to evaluate them systematically. Here we address this shortcoming by focusing on four major questions: (1) How accurate are downscaled, gridded climate data sets in terms of temperature and precipitation estimates?, (2) Are there significant regional differences in accuracy among data sets?, (3) How accurate are their mean values compared with extremes?, and (4) Does their accuracy depend on spatial resolution? We compared eight widely used downscaled data sets that provide gridded daily weather data for recent decades across the United States. We found considerable differences among data sets and between downscaled and weather station data. Temperature is represented more accurately than precipitation, and climate averages are more accurate than weather extremes. The data set exhibiting the best agreement with station data varies among ecoregions. Surprisingly, the accuracy of the data sets does not depend on spatial resolution. Although some inherent differences among data sets and weather station data are to be expected, our findings highlight how much different interpolation methods affect downscaled weather data, even for local comparisons with nearby weather stations located inside a grid cell. More broadly, our results highlight the need for careful consideration among different available data sets in terms of which variables they describe best, where they perform best, and their resolution, when selecting a downscaled weather data set for a given ecological application.

  13. Actor groups, related needs, and challenges at the climate downscaling interface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rössler, Ole; Benestad, Rasmus; Diamando, Vlachogannis; Heike, Hübener; Kanamaru, Hideki; Pagé, Christian; Margarida Cardoso, Rita; Soares, Pedro; Maraun, Douglas; Kreienkamp, Frank; Christodoulides, Paul; Fischer, Andreas; Szabo, Peter

    2016-04-01

    At the climate downscaling interface, numerous downscaling techniques and different philosophies compete on being the best method in their specific terms. Thereby, it remains unclear to what extent and for which purpose these downscaling techniques are valid or even the most appropriate choice. A common validation framework that compares all the different available methods was missing so far. The initiative VALUE closes this gap with such a common validation framework. An essential part of a validation framework for downscaling techniques is the definition of appropriate validation measures. The selection of validation measures should consider the needs of the stakeholder: some might need a temporal or spatial average of a certain variable, others might need temporal or spatial distributions of some variables, still others might need extremes for the variables of interest or even inter-variable dependencies. Hence, a close interaction of climate data providers and climate data users is necessary. Thus, the challenge in formulating a common validation framework mirrors also the challenges between the climate data providers and the impact assessment community. This poster elaborates the issues and challenges at the downscaling interface as it is seen within the VALUE community. It suggests three different actor groups: one group consisting of the climate data providers, the other two groups being climate data users (impact modellers and societal users). Hence, the downscaling interface faces classical transdisciplinary challenges. We depict a graphical illustration of actors involved and their interactions. In addition, we identified four different types of issues that need to be considered: i.e. data based, knowledge based, communication based, and structural issues. They all may, individually or jointly, hinder an optimal exchange of data and information between the actor groups at the downscaling interface. Finally, some possible ways to tackle these issues are

  14. Accounting for downscaling and model uncertainty in fine-resolution seasonal climate projections over the Columbia River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmadalipour, Ali; Moradkhani, Hamid; Rana, Arun

    2018-01-01

    Climate change is expected to have severe impacts on natural systems as well as various socio-economic aspects of human life. This has urged scientific communities to improve the understanding of future climate and reduce the uncertainties associated with projections. In the present study, ten statistically downscaled CMIP5 GCMs at 1/16th deg. spatial resolution from two different downscaling procedures are utilized over the Columbia River Basin (CRB) to assess the changes in climate variables and characterize the associated uncertainties. Three climate variables, i.e. precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature, are studied for the historical period of 1970-2000 as well as future period of 2010-2099, simulated with representative concentration pathways of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is employed to reduce the model uncertainty and develop a probabilistic projection for each variable in each scenario. Historical comparison of long-term attributes of GCMs and observation suggests a more accurate representation for BMA than individual models. Furthermore, BMA projections are used to investigate future seasonal to annual changes of climate variables. Projections indicate significant increase in annual precipitation and temperature, with varied degree of change across different sub-basins of CRB. We then characterized uncertainty of future projections for each season over CRB. Results reveal that model uncertainty is the main source of uncertainty, among others. However, downscaling uncertainty considerably contributes to the total uncertainty of future projections, especially in summer. On the contrary, downscaling uncertainty appears to be higher than scenario uncertainty for precipitation.

  15. Impact of climate change on Precipitation and temperature under the RCP 8.5 and A1B scenarios in an Alpine Cathment (Alto-Genil Basin,southeast Spain). A comparison of statistical downscaling methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulido-Velazquez, David; Juan Collados-Lara, Antonio; Pardo-Iguzquiza, Eulogio; Jimeno-Saez, Patricia; Fernandez-Chacon, Francisca

    2016-04-01

    comparison between results for scenario A1B and RCP8.5 has been performed. The reduction obtained for the mean rainfall respect to the historical are 24.2 % and 24.4 % respectively, and the increment in the temperature are 46.3 % and 31.2 % respectively. A sensitivity analysis of the results to the statistical downscaling techniques employed has been performed. The next techniques have been explored: Perturbation method or "delta-change"; Regression method (a regression function which relates the RCM and the historic information will be used to generate future climate series for the fixed period); Quantile mapping, (it attempts to find a transformation function which relates the observed variable and the modeled variable maintaining an statistical distribution equals the observed variable); Stochastic weather generator (SWG): They can be uni-site or multi-site (which considers the spatial correlation of climatic series). A comparative analysis of these techniques has been performed identifying the advantages and disadvantages of each of them. Acknowledgments: This research has been partially supported by the GESINHIMPADAPT project (CGL2013-48424-C2-2-R) with Spanish MINECO funds. We would also like to thank Spain02, ENSEMBLES and CORDEX projects for the data provided for this study.

  16. Micro climate Simulation in new Town `Hashtgerd' using downscaled climate data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sodoudi, S.

    2010-12-01

    One of the objectives of climatological part of project Young Cities ‘Developing Energy-Efficient Urban Fabric in the Tehran-Karaj Region’ is to simulate the micro climate (with 1m resolution) in 35ha of new town Hashtgerd, which is located 65 km far from mega city Tehran. The Project aims are developing, implementing and evaluating building and planning schemes and technologies which allow to plan and build sustainable, energy-efficient and climate sensible form mass housing settlements in arid and semi-arid regions (energy-efficient fabric). Climate sensitive form also means designing and planning for climate change and its related effects for Hashtgerd New Town. By configuration of buildings and open spaces according to solar radiation, wind and vegetation, climate sensitive urban form can create outdoor thermal comfort. To simulate the climate on small spatial scales, the micro climate model Envi-met has been used to simulate the micro climate in 35 ha. The Eulerian model ENVI-met is a micro-scale climate model which gives information about the influence of architecture and buildings as well as vegetation and green area on the micro climate up to 1 m resolution. Envi-met has been run with information from topography, downscaled climate data with neuro-fuzzy method, meteorological measurements, building height and different vegetation variants (low and high number of trees) The first results were compared with each other and show In semi-arid climates the protection from solar radiation is of major importance. This can be achieved by implementation of vegetation and geometry of buildings. Due to the geographical location and related sun’s orbit the degree of shading in this area is rather low. Technical construction such awnings have to be implemented. A second important factor is wind. The design follows the idea to block the prevailing winds from west and northwest as well as the hot and dusty winds in summer time from the southeast but at the same time

  17. Comparison of Grid Nudging and Spectral Nudging Techniques for Dynamical Climate Downscaling within the WRF Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, X.; Chen, L.; Ma, Z.

    2010-12-01

    Climate downscaling has been an active research and application area in the past several decades focusing on regional climate studies. Dynamical downscaling, in addition to statistical methods, has been widely used in downscaling as the advanced modern numerical weather and regional climate models emerge. The utilization of numerical models enables that a full set of climate variables are generated in the process of downscaling, which are dynamically consistent due to the constraints of physical laws. While we are generating high resolution regional climate, the large scale climate patterns should be retained. To serve this purpose, nudging techniques, including grid analysis nudging and spectral nudging, have been used in different models. There are studies demonstrating the benefit and advantages of each nudging technique; however, the results are sensitive to many factors such as nudging coefficients and the amount of information to nudge to, and thus the conclusions are controversy. While in a companion work of developing approaches for quantitative assessment of the downscaled climate, in this study, the two nudging techniques are under extensive experiments in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Using the same model provides fair comparability. Applying the quantitative assessments provides objectiveness of comparison. Three types of downscaling experiments were performed for one month of choice. The first type is serving as a base whereas the large scale information is communicated through lateral boundary conditions only; the second is using the grid analysis nudging; and the third is using spectral nudging. Emphases are given to the experiments of different nudging coefficients and nudging to different variables in the grid analysis nudging; while in spectral nudging, we focus on testing the nudging coefficients, different wave numbers on different model levels to nudge.

  18. Downscaling of the global climate model data for the mass balance calculation of mountain glaciers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. A. Morozova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we consider a hybrid method of downscaling of the GCM‑generated meteorological fields to the characteristic spatial resolution which is usually used for modeling of a single mountain glacier mass balance. The main purpose of the study is to develop a reliable forecasting method to evaluate future state of moun‑ tain glaciation under changing climatic conditions. The method consists of two stages. In the first or dynamical stage, we use results of calculations of the regional numerical model HadRM3P for the Black Sea‑Caspian region with a spatial resolution of 25 km [22]. Initial conditions for the HadRM3P were provided by the GCM devel‑ oped in the Institute of Numerical Mathematics of RAS (INMCM4 [18]. Calculations were carried out for two time periods: the present climate (1971–2000 and climate in the late 21st century (2071–2100 according to the scenario of greenhouse gas emissions RCP 8.5. On the second stage of downscaling, further regionalization is achieved by projecting of RCM‑generated data to the high‑resolution (25 m digital altitude model in a domain enclosing a target glacier. Altitude gradients of the surface air temperature and precipitation were derived from the model data. Further on, both were corrected using data of observations. Incoming shortwave radiation was calculated in the mass balance model separately, taking into account characteristics of the slope, i.e. exposition and shading of each cell. Then, the method was tested for glaciers Marukh (Western Caucasus and Jankuat (Central Caucasus, both for the present‑day and for future climates. At the end of the 21st century, the air tem‑ perature rise predicted for the summer months was calculated to be about 5–6 °C, and the result for the winter to be minus 2–3 °C. Change in annual precipitation is not significant, less than 10%. Increase in the total short‑ wave radiation will be about 5%. These changes will result in the fact that

  19. Evaluating Downscaling Methods for Seasonal Climate Forecasts over East Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, J. Brent; Robertson, Franklin R.; Bosilovich, Michael; Lyon, Bradfield; Funk, Chris

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. National Multi-Model Ensemble seasonal forecasting system is providing hindcast and real-time data streams to be used in assessing and improving seasonal predictive capacity. The NASA / USAID SERVIR project, which leverages satellite and modeling-based resources for environmental decision making in developing nations, is focusing on the evaluation of NMME forecasts specifically for use in impact modeling within hub regions including East Africa, the Hindu Kush-Himalayan (HKH) region and Mesoamerica. One of the participating models in NMME is the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS5). This work will present an intercomparison of downscaling methods using the GEOS5 seasonal forecasts of temperature and precipitation over East Africa. The current seasonal forecasting system provides monthly averaged forecast anomalies. These anomalies must be spatially downscaled and temporally disaggregated for use in application modeling (e.g. hydrology, agriculture). There are several available downscaling methodologies that can be implemented to accomplish this goal. Selected methods include both a non-homogenous hidden Markov model and an analogue based approach. A particular emphasis will be placed on quantifying the ability of different methods to capture the intermittency of precipitation within both the short and long rain seasons. Further, the ability to capture spatial covariances will be assessed. Both probabilistic and deterministic skill measures will be evaluated over the hindcast period

  20. Climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1990-01-01

    In this paper, the authors discuss in brief the magnitude and rate of past changes in climate and examine the various factors influencing climate in order to place the potential warming due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in context. Feedback mechanisms that can amplify or lessen imposed climate changes are discussed next. The overall sensitivity of climate to changes in forcing is then considered, followed by a discussion of the time-dependent response of the Earth system. The focus is on global temperature as an indicator for the magnitude of climatic change

  1. Toward Robust and Efficient Climate Downscaling for Wind Energy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanvyve, E.; Rife, D.; Pinto, J. O.; Monaghan, A. J.; Davis, C. A.

    2011-12-01

    This presentation describes a more accurate and economical (less time, money and effort) wind resource assessment technique for the renewable energy industry, that incorporates innovative statistical techniques and new global mesoscale reanalyzes. The technique judiciously selects a collection of "case days" that accurately represent the full range of wind conditions observed at a given site over a 10-year period, in order to estimate the long-term energy yield. We will demonstrate that this new technique provides a very accurate and statistically reliable estimate of the 10-year record of the wind resource by intelligently choosing a sample of ±120 case days. This means that the expense of downscaling to quantify the wind resource at a prospective wind farm can be cut by two thirds from the current industry practice of downscaling a randomly chosen 365-day sample to represent winds over a "typical" year. This new estimate of the long-term energy yield at a prospective wind farm also has far less statistical uncertainty than the current industry standard approach. This key finding has the potential to reduce significantly market barriers to both onshore and offshore wind farm development, since insurers and financiers charge prohibitive premiums on investments that are deemed to be high risk. Lower uncertainty directly translates to lower perceived risk, and therefore far more attractive financing terms could be offered to wind farm developers who employ this new technique.

  2. Downscaling Climate Science to the Classroom: Diverse Opportunities for Teaching Climate Science in Diverse Ways to Diverse Undergraduate Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, R. M.; Gill, T. E.; Quesada, D.; Hedquist, B. C.

    2015-12-01

    Climate literacy and climate education are important topics in current socio-political debate. Despite numerous scientific findings supporting global climate changes and accelerated greenhouse warming, there is a social inertia resisting and slowing the rate at which many of our students understand and absorb these facts. A variety of reasons, including: socio-economic interests, political and ideological biases, misinformation from mass media, inappropriate preparation of science teachers, and lack of numancy have created serious challenges for public awareness of such an important issue. Different agencies and organizations (NASA, NOAA, EPA, AGU, APS, AMS and others) have created training programs for educators, not involved directly in climatology research, in order to learn climate science in a consistent way and then communicate it to the public and students. Different approaches on how to deliver such information to undergraduate students in diverse environments is discussed based on the author's experiences working in different minority-serving institutions across the nation and who have attended AMS Weather and Climate Studies training workshops, MSI-REACH, and the School of Ice. Different parameters are included in the analysis: demographics of students, size of the institutions, geographical locations, target audience, programs students are enrolled in, conceptual units covered, and availability of climate-related courses in the curricula. Additionally, the feasibility of incorporating a laboratory and quantitative analysis is analyzed. As a result of these comparisons it seems that downscaling of climate education experiences do not always work as expected in every institution regardless of the student body demographics. Different geographical areas, student body characteristics and type of institution determine the approach to be adopted as well as the feasibility to introduce different components for weather and climate studies. Some ideas are shared

  3. Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn; Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the effects of climate change relevant for Denmark, including the change in mean year values as well as the extent of maximum and minimum extremes. Described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the assumptions that the scenarios are based on were outlined...... and evaluated in a Danish context. The uncertainty of the scenarios leaves major challenges that, if not addressed and taken into account in building design, will grow far more serious as climate change progresses. Cases implemented in the Danish building stock illustrate adaptation to climate change...... and illustrate how building design can include mitigating measures to counteract climate change. Cases studied were individual buildings as well as the urban environment. Furthermore the paper describes some of the issues that must be addressed, as the building sector is investing in measures to adapt to climate...

  4. Demonstration of a geostatistical approach to physically consistent downscaling of climate modeling simulations

    KAUST Repository

    Jha, Sanjeev Kumar; Mariethoz, Gregoire; Evans, Jason P.; McCabe, Matthew

    2013-01-01

    A downscaling approach based on multiple-point geostatistics (MPS) is presented. The key concept underlying MPS is to sample spatial patterns from within training images, which can then be used in characterizing the relationship between different variables across multiple scales. The approach is used here to downscale climate variables including skin surface temperature (TSK), soil moisture (SMOIS), and latent heat flux (LH). The performance of the approach is assessed by applying it to data derived from a regional climate model of the Murray-Darling basin in southeast Australia, using model outputs at two spatial resolutions of 50 and 10 km. The data used in this study cover the period from 1985 to 2006, with 1985 to 2005 used for generating the training images that define the relationships of the variables across the different spatial scales. Subsequently, the spatial distributions for the variables in the year 2006 are determined at 10 km resolution using the 50 km resolution data as input. The MPS geostatistical downscaling approach reproduces the spatial distribution of TSK, SMOIS, and LH at 10 km resolution with the correct spatial patterns over different seasons, while providing uncertainty estimates through the use of multiple realizations. The technique has the potential to not only bridge issues of spatial resolution in regional and global climate model simulations but also in feature sharpening in remote sensing applications through image fusion, filling gaps in spatial data, evaluating downscaled variables with available remote sensing images, and aggregating/disaggregating hydrological and groundwater variables for catchment studies.

  5. Expansion of the On-line Archive "Statistically Downscaled WCRP CMIP3 Climate Projections"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, L. D.; Pruitt, T.; Maurer, E. P.; Das, T.; Duffy, P.; White, K.

    2009-12-01

    Presentation highlights status and plans for a public-access archive of downscaled CMIP3 climate projections. Incorporating climate projection information into long-term evaluations of water and energy resources requires analysts to have access to projections at "basin-relevant" resolution. Such projections would ideally be bias-corrected to account for climate model tendencies to systematically simulate historical conditions different than observed. In 2007, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, Santa Clara University and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) collaborated to develop an archive of 112 bias-corrected and spatially disaggregated (BCSD) CMIP3 temperature and precipitation projections. These projections were generated using 16 CMIP3 models to simulate three emissions pathways (A2, A1b, and B1) from one or more initializations (runs). Projections are specified on a monthly time step from 1950-2099 and at 0.125 degree spatial resolution within the North American Land Data Assimilation System domain (i.e. contiguous U.S., southern Canada and northern Mexico). Archive data are freely accessible at LLNL Green Data Oasis (url). Since being launched, the archive has served over 3500 data requests by nearly 500 users in support of a range of planning, research and educational activities. Archive developers continue to look for ways to improve the archive and respond to user needs. One request has been to serve the intermediate datasets generated during the BCSD procedure, helping users to interpret the relative influences of the bias-correction and spatial disaggregation on the transformed CMIP3 output. This request has been addressed with intermediate datasets now posted at the archive web-site. Another request relates closely to studying hydrologic and ecological impacts under climate change, where users are asking for projected diurnal temperature information (e.g., projected daily minimum and maximum temperature) and daily time step resolution. In

  6. Projections of rising heat stress over the western Maritime Continent from dynamically downscaled climate simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Im, Eun-Soon; Kang, Suchul; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.

    2018-06-01

    This study assesses the future changes in heat stress in response to different emission scenarios over the western Maritime Continent. To better resolve the region-specific changes and to enhance the performance in simulating extreme events, the MIT Regional Climate Model with a 12-km horizontal resolution is used for the dynamical downscaling of three carefully selected CMIP5 global projections forced by two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios. Daily maximum wet-bulb temperature (TWmax), which includes the effect of humidity, is examined to describe heat stress as regulated by future changes in temperature and humidity. An ensemble of projections reveals robust pattern in which a large increase in temperature is accompanied by a reduction in relative humidity but a significant increase in wet-bulb temperature. This increase in TWmax is relatively smaller over flat and coastal regions than that over mountainous region. However, the flat and coastal regions characterized by warm and humid present-day climate will be at risk even under modest increase in TWmax. The regional extent exposed to higher TWmax and the number of days on which TWmax exceeds its threshold value are projected to be much higher in RCP8.5 scenario than those in RCP4.5 scenario, thus highlighting the importance of controlling greenhouse gas emissions to reduce the adverse impacts on human health and heat-related mortality.

  7. Projected change in East Asian summer monsoon by dynamic downscaling: Moisture budget analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Chun-Yong; Shin, Ho-Jeong; Jang, Chan Joo; Kim, Hyung-Jin

    2015-02-01

    The summer monsoon considerably affects water resource and natural hazards including flood and drought in East Asia, one of the world's most densely populated area. In this study, we investigate future changes in summer precipitation over East Asia induced by global warming through dynamical downscaling with the Weather Research and Forecast model. We have selected a global model from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 based on an objective evaluation for East Asian summer monsoon and applied its climate change under Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 scenario to a pseudo global warming method. Unlike the previous studies that focused on a qualitative description of projected precipitation changes over East Asia, this study tried to identify the physical causes of the precipitation changes by analyzing a local moisture budget. Projected changes in precipitation over the eastern foothills area of Tibetan Plateau including Sichuan Basin and Yangtze River displayed a contrasting pattern: a decrease in its northern area and an increase in its southern area. A local moisture budget analysis indicated the precipitation increase over the southern area can be mainly attributed to an increase in horizontal wind convergence and surface evaporation. On the other hand, the precipitation decrease over the northern area can be largely explained by horizontal advection of dry air from the northern continent and by divergent wind flow. Regional changes in future precipitation in East Asia are likely to be attributed to different mechanisms which can be better resolved by regional dynamical downscaling.

  8. Internal variability of a dynamically downscaled climate over North America

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Jiali; Bessac, Julie; Kotamarthi, Rao; Constantinescu, Emil; Drewniak, Beth

    2017-09-08

    This study investigates the internal variability (IV) of a regional climate model, and considers the impacts of horizontal resolution and spectral nudging on the IV. A 16-member simulation ensemble was conducted using the Weather Research Forecasting model for three model configurations. Ensemble members included simulations at spatial resolutions of 50 km and 12 km without spectral nudging and simulations at a spatial resolution of 12 km with spectral nudging. All the simulations were generated over the same domain, which covered much of North America. The degree of IV was measured as the spread between the individual members of the ensemble during the integration period. The IV of the 12 km simulation with spectral nudging was also compared with a future climate change simulation projected by the same model configuration. The variables investigated focus on precipitation and near-surface air temperature. While the IVs show a clear annual cycle with larger values in summer and smaller values in winter, the seasonal IV is smaller for a 50-km spatial resolution than for a 12-km resolution when nudging is not applied. Applying a nudging technique to the 12-km simulation reduces the IV by a factor of two, and produces smaller IV than the simulation at 50 km without nudging. Applying a nudging technique also changes the geographic distributions of IV in all examined variables. The IV is much smaller than the inter-annual variability at seasonal scales for regionally averaged temperature and precipitation. The IV is also smaller than the projected changes in air-temperature for the mid- and late 21st century. However, the IV is larger than the projected changes in precipitation for the mid- and late 21st century.

  9. Internal variability of a dynamically downscaled climate over North America

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Jiali; Bessac, Julie; Kotamarthi, Rao; Constantinescu, Emil; Drewniak, Beth

    2017-09-08

    This study investigates the internal variability (IV) of a regional climate model, and considers the impacts of horizontal resolution and spectral nudging on the IV. A 16-member simulation ensemble was conducted using the Weather Research Forecasting model for three model configurations. Ensemble members included simulations at spatial resolutions of 50 and 12 km without spectral nudging and simulations at a spatial resolution of 12 km with spectral nudging. All the simulations were generated over the same domain, which covered much of North America. The degree of IV was measured as the spread between the individual members of the ensemble during the integration period. The IV of the 12 km simulation with spectral nudging was also compared with a future climate change simulation projected by the same model configuration. The variables investigated focus on precipitation and near-surface air temperature. While the IVs show a clear annual cycle with larger values in summer and smaller values in winter, the seasonal IV is smaller for a 50-km spatial resolution than for a 12-km resolution when nudging is not applied. Applying a nudging technique to the 12-km simulation reduces the IV by a factor of two, and produces smaller IV than the simulation at 50 km without nudging. Applying a nudging technique also changes the geographic distributions of IV in all examined variables. The IV is much smaller than the inter-annual variability at seasonal scales for regionally averaged temperature and precipitation. The IV is also smaller than the projected changes in air-temperature for the mid- and late twenty-first century. However, the IV is larger than the projected changes in precipitation for the mid- and late twenty-first century.

  10. Internal variability of a dynamically downscaled climate over North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jiali; Bessac, Julie; Kotamarthi, Rao; Constantinescu, Emil; Drewniak, Beth

    2017-09-01

    This study investigates the internal variability (IV) of a regional climate model, and considers the impacts of horizontal resolution and spectral nudging on the IV. A 16-member simulation ensemble was conducted using the Weather Research Forecasting model for three model configurations. Ensemble members included simulations at spatial resolutions of 50 and 12 km without spectral nudging and simulations at a spatial resolution of 12 km with spectral nudging. All the simulations were generated over the same domain, which covered much of North America. The degree of IV was measured as the spread between the individual members of the ensemble during the integration period. The IV of the 12 km simulation with spectral nudging was also compared with a future climate change simulation projected by the same model configuration. The variables investigated focus on precipitation and near-surface air temperature. While the IVs show a clear annual cycle with larger values in summer and smaller values in winter, the seasonal IV is smaller for a 50-km spatial resolution than for a 12-km resolution when nudging is not applied. Applying a nudging technique to the 12-km simulation reduces the IV by a factor of two, and produces smaller IV than the simulation at 50 km without nudging. Applying a nudging technique also changes the geographic distributions of IV in all examined variables. The IV is much smaller than the inter-annual variability at seasonal scales for regionally averaged temperature and precipitation. The IV is also smaller than the projected changes in air-temperature for the mid- and late twenty-first century. However, the IV is larger than the projected changes in precipitation for the mid- and late twenty-first century.

  11. Internal variability of a dynamically downscaled climate over North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jiali; Bessac, Julie; Kotamarthi, Rao; Constantinescu, Emil; Drewniak, Beth

    2018-06-01

    This study investigates the internal variability (IV) of a regional climate model, and considers the impacts of horizontal resolution and spectral nudging on the IV. A 16-member simulation ensemble was conducted using the Weather Research Forecasting model for three model configurations. Ensemble members included simulations at spatial resolutions of 50 and 12 km without spectral nudging and simulations at a spatial resolution of 12 km with spectral nudging. All the simulations were generated over the same domain, which covered much of North America. The degree of IV was measured as the spread between the individual members of the ensemble during the integration period. The IV of the 12 km simulation with spectral nudging was also compared with a future climate change simulation projected by the same model configuration. The variables investigated focus on precipitation and near-surface air temperature. While the IVs show a clear annual cycle with larger values in summer and smaller values in winter, the seasonal IV is smaller for a 50-km spatial resolution than for a 12-km resolution when nudging is not applied. Applying a nudging technique to the 12-km simulation reduces the IV by a factor of two, and produces smaller IV than the simulation at 50 km without nudging. Applying a nudging technique also changes the geographic distributions of IV in all examined variables. The IV is much smaller than the inter-annual variability at seasonal scales for regionally averaged temperature and precipitation. The IV is also smaller than the projected changes in air-temperature for the mid- and late twenty-first century. However, the IV is larger than the projected changes in precipitation for the mid- and late twenty-first century.

  12. Statistical downscaling of regional climate scenarios for the French Alps : Impacts on snow cover

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rousselot, M.; Durand, Y.; Giraud, G.; Mérindol, L.; Déqué, M.; Sanchez, E.; Pagé, C.; Hasan, A.

    2010-12-01

    Mountain areas are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Owing to the complexity of mountain terrain, climate research at scales relevant for impacts studies and decisive for stakeholders is challenging. A possible way to bridge the gap between these fine scales and those of the general circulation models (GCMs) consists of combining high-resolution simulations of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to statistical downscaling methods. The present work is based on such an approach. It aims at investigating the impacts of climate change on snow cover in the French Alps for the periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 under several IPCC hypotheses. An analogue method based on high resolution atmospheric fields from various RCMs and climate reanalyses is used to simulate local climate scenarios. These scenarios, which provide meteorological parameters relevant for snowpack evolution, subsequently feed the CROCUS snow model. In these simulations, various sources of uncertainties are thus considered (several greenhouse gases emission scenarios and RCMs). Results are obtained for different regions of the French Alps at various altitudes. For all scenarios, temperature increase is relatively uniform over the Alps. This regional warming is larger than that generally modeled at the global scale (IPCC, 2007), and particularly strong in summer. Annual precipitation amounts seem to decrease, mainly as a result of decreasing precipitation trends in summer and fall. As a result of these climatic evolutions, there is a general decrease of the mean winter snow depth and seasonal snow duration for all massifs. Winter snow depths are particularly reduced in the Northern Alps. However, the impact on seasonal snow duration is more significant in the Southern and Extreme Southern Alps, since these regions are already characterized by small winter snow depths at low elevations. Reference : IPCC (2007a). Climate change 2007 : The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the

  13. Climate Change Impacts at Department of Defense

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kotamarthi, Rao [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Wang, Jiali [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Zoebel, Zach [Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL (United States); Wuebbles, Don [Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL (United States); Hayhoe, Katharine [Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX (United States); Stein, Michael [Univ. of Chicago, IL (United States); Changnon, David [Northern Illinois Univ., DeKalb, IL (United States)

    2017-06-16

    This project is aimed at providing the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) with a comprehensive analysis of the uncertainty associated with generating climate projections at the regional scale that can be used by stakeholders and decision makers to quantify and plan for the impacts of future climate change at specific locations. The merits and limitations of commonly used downscaling models, ranging from simple to complex, are compared, and their appropriateness for application at installation scales is evaluated. Downscaled climate projections are generated at selected DoD installations using dynamic and statistical methods with an emphasis on generating probability distributions of climate variables and their associated uncertainties. The sites selection and selection of variables and parameters for downscaling was based on a comprehensive understanding of the current and projected roles that weather and climate play in operating, maintaining, and planning DoD facilities and installations.

  14. A Hybrid Framework to Bias Correct and Empirically Downscale Daily Temperature and Precipitation from Regional Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, P.; Abraham, Z.; Winkler, J. A.; Perdinan, P.; Zhong, S. S.; Liszewska, M.

    2013-12-01

    Bias correction and statistical downscaling are widely used approaches for postprocessing climate simulations generated by global and/or regional climate models. The skills of these approaches are typically assessed in terms of their ability to reproduce historical climate conditions as well as the plausibility and consistency of the derived statistical indicators needed by end users. Current bias correction and downscaling approaches often do not adequately satisfy the two criteria of accurate prediction and unbiased estimation. To overcome this limitation, a hybrid regression framework was developed to both minimize prediction errors and preserve the distributional characteristics of climate observations. Specifically, the framework couples the loss functions of standard (linear or nonlinear) regression methods with a regularization term that penalizes for discrepancies between the predicted and observed distributions. The proposed framework can also be extended to generate physically-consistent outputs across multiple response variables, and to incorporate both reanalysis-driven and GCM-driven RCM outputs into a unified learning framework. The effectiveness of the framework is demonstrated using daily temperature and precipitation simulations from the North American Regional Climate Change Program (NARCCAP) . The accuracy of the framework is comparable to standard regression methods, but, unlike the standard regression methods, the proposed framework is able to preserve many of the distribution properties of the response variables, akin to bias correction approaches such as quantile mapping and bivariate geometric quantile mapping.

  15. Dynamically downscaled climate simulations over North America: Methods, evaluation, and supporting documentation for users

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hostetler, S.W.; Alder, J.R.; Allan, A.M.

    2011-01-01

    We have completed an array of high-resolution simulations of present and future climate over Western North America (WNA) and Eastern North America (ENA) by dynamically downscaling global climate simulations using a regional climate model, RegCM3. The simulations are intended to provide long time series of internally consistent surface and atmospheric variables for use in climate-related research. In addition to providing high-resolution weather and climate data for the past, present, and future, we have developed an integrated data flow and methodology for processing, summarizing, viewing, and delivering the climate datasets to a wide range of potential users. Our simulations were run over 50- and 15-kilometer model grids in an attempt to capture more of the climatic detail associated with processes such as topographic forcing than can be captured by general circulation models (GCMs). The simulations were run using output from four GCMs. All simulations span the present (for example, 1968-1999), common periods of the future (2040-2069), and two simulations continuously cover 2010-2099. The trace gas concentrations in our simulations were the same as those of the GCMs: the IPCC 20th century time series for 1968-1999 and the A2 time series for simulations of the future. We demonstrate that RegCM3 is capable of producing present day annual and seasonal climatologies of air temperature and precipitation that are in good agreement with observations. Important features of the high-resolution climatology of temperature, precipitation, snow water equivalent (SWE), and soil moisture are consistently reproduced in all model runs over WNA and ENA. The simulations provide a potential range of future climate change for selected decades and display common patterns of the direction and magnitude of changes. As expected, there are some model to model differences that limit interpretability and give rise to uncertainties. Here, we provide background information about the GCMs and

  16. Trend analysis of watershed-scale precipitation over Northern California by means of dynamically-downscaled CMIP5 future climate projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishida, K; Gorguner, M; Ercan, A; Trinh, T; Kavvas, M L

    2017-08-15

    The impacts of climate change on watershed-scale precipitation through the 21st century were investigated over eight study watersheds in Northern California based on dynamically downscaled CMIP5 future climate projections from three GCMs (CCSM4, HadGEM2-ES, and MIROC5) under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future climate scenarios. After evaluating the modeling capability of the WRF model, the six future climate projections were dynamically downscaled by means of the WRF model over Northern California at 9km grid resolution and hourly temporal resolution during a 94-year period (2006-2100). The biases in the model simulations were corrected, and basin-average precipitation over the eight study watersheds was calculated from the dynamically downscaled precipitation data. Based on the dynamically downscaled basin-average precipitation, trends in annual depth and annual peaks of basin-average precipitation during the 21st century were analyzed over the eight study watersheds. The analyses in this study indicate that there may be differences between trends of annual depths and annual peaks of watershed-scale precipitation during the 21st century. Furthermore, trends in watershed-scale precipitation under future climate conditions may be different for different watersheds depending on their location and topography even if they are in the same region. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cronin, Thomas M.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change (including climate variability) refers to regional or global changes in mean climate state or in patterns of climate variability over decades to millions of years often identified using statistical methods and sometimes referred to as changes in long-term weather conditions (IPCC, 2012). Climate is influenced by changes in continent-ocean configurations due to plate tectonic processes, variations in Earth’s orbit, axial tilt and precession, atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, solar variability, volcanism, internal variability resulting from interactions between the atmosphere, oceans and ice (glaciers, small ice caps, ice sheets, and sea ice), and anthropogenic activities such as greenhouse gas emissions and land use and their effects on carbon cycling.

  18. Downscaling with a nested regional climate model in near-surface fields over the contiguous United States: WRF dynamical downscaling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Jiali [Environmental Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne Illinois USA; Kotamarthi, Veerabhadra R. [Environmental Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne Illinois USA

    2014-07-27

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used for dynamic downscaling of 2.5 degree National Centers for Environmental Prediction-U.S. Department of Energy Reanalysis II (NCEP-R2) data for 1980-2010 at 12 km resolution over most of North America. The model's performance for surface air temperature and precipitation is evaluated by comparison with high-resolution observational data sets. The model's ability to add value is investigated by comparison with NCEP-R2 data and a 50 km regional climate simulation. The causes for major model bias are studied through additional sensitivity experiments with various model setup/integration approaches and physics representations. The WRF captures the main features of the spatial patterns and annual cycles of air temperature and precipitation over most of the contiguous United States. However, simulated air temperatures over the south central region and precipitation over the Great Plains and the Southwest have significant biases. Allowing longer spin-up time, reducing the nudging strength, or replacing the WRF Single-Moment 6-class microphysics with Morrison microphysics reduces the bias over some subregions. However, replacing the Grell-Devenyi cumulus parameterization with Kain-Fritsch shows no improvement. The 12 km simulation does add value above the NCEP-R2 data and the 50 km simulation over mountainous and coastal zones.

  19. An Improved Dynamical Downscaling Method with GCM Bias Corrections and Its Validation with 30 Years of Climate Simulations

    KAUST Repository

    Xu, Zhongfeng; Yang, Zong-Liang

    2012-01-01

    An improved dynamical downscaling method (IDD) with general circulation model (GCM) bias corrections is developed and assessed over North America. A set of regional climate simulations is performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

  20. An Observation-base investigation of nudging in WRF for downscaling surface climate information to 12-km Grid Spacing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Previous research has demonstrated the ability to use the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model and contemporary dynamical downscaling methods to refine global climate modeling results to a horizontal resolution of 36 km. Environmental managers and urban planners have expre...

  1. Downscaling future climate projections to the watershed scale: A north San Francisco Bay estuary case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Micheli, Elisabeth; Flint, Lorraine; Flint, Alan; Weiss, Stuart; Kennedy, Morgan

    2012-01-01

    We modeled the hydrology of basins draining into the northern portion of the San Francisco Bay Estuary (North San Pablo Bay) using a regional water balance model (Basin Characterization Model; BCM) to estimate potential effects of climate change at the watershed scale. The BCM calculates water balance components, including runoff, recharge, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and stream flow, based on climate, topography, soils and underlying geology, and the solar-driven energy balance. We downscaled historical and projected precipitation and air temperature values derived from weather stations and global General Circulation Models (GCMs) to a spatial scale of 270 m. We then used the BCM to estimate hydrologic response to climate change for four scenarios spanning this century (2000–2100). Historical climate patterns show that Marin’s coastal regions are typically on the order of 2 °C cooler and receive five percent more precipitation compared to the inland valleys of Sonoma and Napa because of marine influences and local topography. By the last 30 years of this century, North Bay scenarios project average minimum temperatures to increase by 1.0 °C to 3.1 °C and average maximum temperatures to increase by 2.1 °C to 3.4 °C (in comparison to conditions experienced over the last 30 years, 1981–2010). Precipitation projections for the 21st century vary between GCMs (ranging from 2 to 15% wetter than the 20th-century average). Temperature forcing increases the variability of modeled runoff, recharge, and stream discharge, and shifts hydrologic cycle timing. For both high- and low-rainfall scenarios, by the close of this century warming is projected to amplify late-season climatic water deficit (a measure of drought stress on soils) by 8% to 21%. Hydrologic variability within a single river basin demonstrated at the scale of subwatersheds may prove an important consideration for water managers in the face of climate change. Our results suggest that in arid

  2. TopoSCALE v.1.0: downscaling gridded climate data in complex terrain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiddes, J.; Gruber, S.

    2014-02-01

    Simulation of land surface processes is problematic in heterogeneous terrain due to the the high resolution required of model grids to capture strong lateral variability caused by, for example, topography, and the lack of accurate meteorological forcing data at the site or scale it is required. Gridded data products produced by atmospheric models can fill this gap, however, often not at an appropriate spatial resolution to drive land-surface simulations. In this study we describe a method that uses the well-resolved description of the atmospheric column provided by climate models, together with high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs), to downscale coarse-grid climate variables to a fine-scale subgrid. The main aim of this approach is to provide high-resolution driving data for a land-surface model (LSM). The method makes use of an interpolation of pressure-level data according to topographic height of the subgrid. An elevation and topography correction is used to downscale short-wave radiation. Long-wave radiation is downscaled by deriving a cloud-component of all-sky emissivity at grid level and using downscaled temperature and relative humidity fields to describe variability with elevation. Precipitation is downscaled with a simple non-linear lapse and optionally disaggregated using a climatology approach. We test the method in comparison with unscaled grid-level data and a set of reference methods, against a large evaluation dataset (up to 210 stations per variable) in the Swiss Alps. We demonstrate that the method can be used to derive meteorological inputs in complex terrain, with most significant improvements (with respect to reference methods) seen in variables derived from pressure levels: air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and incoming long-wave radiation. This method may be of use in improving inputs to numerical simulations in heterogeneous and/or remote terrain, especially when statistical methods are not possible, due to lack of

  3. Climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perthuis, Ch. de; Delbosc, A.

    2009-01-01

    Received ideas about climatic change are a mixture of right and wrong information. The authors use these ideas as starting points to shade light on what we really know and what we believe to know. The book is divided in three main chapters: should we act in front of climatic change? How can we efficiently act? How can we equitably act? For each chapter a series of received ideas is analyzed in order to find those which can usefully contribute to mitigate the environmental, economical and social impacts of climatic change. (J.S.)

  4. Climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marchal, V.; Dellink, R.; Vuuren, D.P. van; Clapp, C.; Chateau, J.; Magné, B.; Lanzi, E.; Vliet, J. van

    2012-01-01

    This chapter analyses the policy implications of the climate change challenge. Are current emission reduction pledges made in Copenhagen/Cancun enough to stabilise the climate and limit global average temperature increase to 2 oC? If not, what will the consequences be? What alternative growth

  5. A multimodal wave spectrum-based approach for statistical downscaling of local wave climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hegermiller, Christie; Antolinez, Jose A A; Rueda, Ana C.; Camus, Paula; Perez, Jorge; Erikson, Li; Barnard, Patrick; Mendez, Fernando J.

    2017-01-01

    Characterization of wave climate by bulk wave parameters is insufficient for many coastal studies, including those focused on assessing coastal hazards and long-term wave climate influences on coastal evolution. This issue is particularly relevant for studies using statistical downscaling of atmospheric fields to local wave conditions, which are often multimodal in large ocean basins (e.g. the Pacific). Swell may be generated in vastly different wave generation regions, yielding complex wave spectra that are inadequately represented by a single set of bulk wave parameters. Furthermore, the relationship between atmospheric systems and local wave conditions is complicated by variations in arrival time of wave groups from different parts of the basin. Here, we address these two challenges by improving upon the spatiotemporal definition of the atmospheric predictor used in statistical downscaling of local wave climate. The improved methodology separates the local wave spectrum into “wave families,” defined by spectral peaks and discrete generation regions, and relates atmospheric conditions in distant regions of the ocean basin to local wave conditions by incorporating travel times computed from effective energy flux across the ocean basin. When applied to locations with multimodal wave spectra, including Southern California and Trujillo, Peru, the new methodology improves the ability of the statistical model to project significant wave height, peak period, and direction for each wave family, retaining more information from the full wave spectrum. This work is the base of statistical downscaling by weather types, which has recently been applied to coastal flooding and morphodynamic applications.

  6. Climate Change and Food Security in Tanzania: Analysis of Current ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Food systems in Tanzania are highly vulnerable to climate change and variability due to poor adaptive capacity of ... available GCMs and downscaling techniques ... water for hydroelectric power generation ... for farm-level decision making.

  7. Climatic change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1977-02-15

    In spite of man's remarkable advances in technology, ultimately he is still dependent on the Earth's climatic system for food and fresh water. The recent occurrences in certain regions of the world of climatic extremes such as excessive rain or droughts and unseasonably high or low temperatures have led to speculation that a major climatic change is occurring on a global scale. Some point to the recent drop in temperatures in the northern hemisphere as an indication that the Earth is entering a new ice age. Others see a global warming trend that may be due to a build-up of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. An authoritative report on the subject has been prepared by a World Meteorological Organization Panel of Experts on Climatic Change. Excerpts from the report are given. (author)

  8. Climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1977-01-01

    In spite of man's remarkable advances in technology, ultimately he is still dependent on the Earth's climatic system for food and fresh water. The recent occurrences in certain regions of the world of climatic extremes such as excessive rain or droughts and unseasonably high or low temperatures have led to speculation that a major climatic change is occurring on a global scale. Some point to the recent drop in temperatures in the northern hemisphere as an indication that the Earth is entering a new ice age. Others see a global warming trend that may be due to a build-up of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. An authoritative report on the subject has been prepared by a World Meteorological Organization Panel of Experts on Climatic Change. Excerpts from the report are given. (author)

  9. Dynamical Downscaling over Siberia: Is there an added value in representing recent climate conditions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klehmet, K.; Rockel, B.

    2012-04-01

    The analysis of long-term changes and variability of climate variables for the large areal extent of Siberia - covering arctic, subarctic and temperate northern latitudes - is hampered by the sparseness of in-situ observations. To counteract this deficiency we aimed to provide a reconstruction of regional climate for the period 1948-2010 getting homogenous, consistent fields of various terrestrial and atmospheric parameters for Siberia. In order to obtain in addition a higher temporal and spatial resolution than global datasets can provide, we performed the reconstruction using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (climate mode of the limited area model COSMO developed by the German weather service). However, the question arises whether the dynamically downscaled data of reanalysis can improve the representation of recent climate conditions. As global forcing for the initialization and the regional boundaries we use NCEP-1 Reanalysis of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction since it has the longest temporal data coverage among the reanalysis products. Additionally, spectral nudging is applied to prevent the regional model from deviating from the prescribed large-scale circulation within the whole simulation domain. The area of interest covers a region in Siberia, spanning from the Laptev Sea and Kara Sea to Northern Mongolia and from the West Siberian Lowland to the border of Sea of Okhotsk. The current horizontal resolution is of about 50 km which is planned to be increased to 25 km. To answer the question, we investigate spatial and temporal characteristics of temperature and precipitation of the model output in comparison to global reanalysis data (NCEP-1, ERA40, ERA-Interim). As reference Russian station data from the "Global Summary of the Day" data set, provided by NCDC, is used. Temperature is analyzed with respect to its climatologically spatial patterns across the model domain and its variability of extremes based on climate indices derived

  10. Downscaling of South America present climate driven by 4-member HadCM3 runs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chou, Sin Chan; Marengo, Jose A.; Lyra, Andre A.; Sueiro, Gustavo; Pesquero, Jose F.; Alves, Lincoln M.; Chagas, Diego J.; Gomes, Jorge L.; Bustamante, Josiane F.; Tavares, Priscila [National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Sao Paulo (Brazil); Kay, Gillian; Betts, Richard [UK Met Office Hadley Centre, Devon (United Kingdom)

    2012-02-15

    The objective of this work is to evaluate climate simulations over South America using the regional Eta Model driven by four members of an ensemble of the UK Met Office Hadley Centre HadCM3 global model. The Eta Model has been modified with the purpose of performing long-term decadal integrations and has shown to reproduce ''present climate'' - the period 1961-1990 - reasonably well when forced by HadCM3. The global model lateral conditions with a resolution of 2.5 latitude x 3.75 longitude were provided at a frequency of 6 h. Each member of the global model ensemble has a different climate sensitivity, and the four members were selected to span the range of uncertainty encompassed by the ensemble. The Eta Model nested in the HadCM3 global model was configured with 40-km horizontal resolution and 38 layers in the vertical. No large-scale internal nudging was applied. Results are shown for austral summer and winter at present climate defined as 1961-90. The upper and low-level circulation patterns produced by the Eta-CPTEC/HadCM3 experiment set-up show good agreement with reanalysis data and the mean precipitation and temperature with CRU observation data. The spread in the downscaled mean precipitation and temperature is small when compared against model errors. On the other hand, the benefits in using an ensemble is clear in the improved representation of the seasonal cycle by the ensemble mean over any one realization. El Nino and La Nina years were identified in the HadCM3 member runs based on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center criterion of sea surface temperature anomalies in the Nino 3.4 area. The frequency of the El Nino and La Nina events in the studied period is underestimated by HadCM3. The precipitation and temperature anomalies typical of these events are reproduced by most of the Eta-CPTEC/HadCM3 ensemble, although small displacements of the positions of the anomalies occur. This experiment configuration is the first step on the

  11. Climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    This paper presented indicators of climate change for British Columbia (BC) with an emphasis on the coastal region. An overview of global effects of climate change was presented, as well as details of BC's current climate change action plan. Indicators examined in the paper for the BC coastal region included long-term trends in air temperature; long-term trends in precipitation; coastal ocean temperatures; sea levels on the BC coast; and the sensitivity of the BC coast to sea level rise and erosion. Data suggested that average air temperatures have become higher in many areas, and that Springtime temperatures have become warmer over the whole province. Winters have become drier in many areas of the province. Sea surface temperature has risen over the entire coast, with the North Coast and central Strait of Georgia showing the largest increases. Deep-water temperatures have also increased in 5 inlets on the South Coast. Results suggested that the direction and spatial pattern of the climate changes reported for British Columbia are consistent with broader trends in North America and the type of changes predicted by climate models for the region. Climate change will likely result in reduced snow-pack in southern BC. An earlier spring freshet on many snow-dominated river systems is anticipated as well as glacial retreat and disappearance. Warmer temperatures in some lakes and rivers are expected, as well as the increased frequency and severity of natural disturbances such as the pine mountain beetle. Large-scale shifts in ecosystems and the loss of certain ecosystems may also occur. BC's current climate plan includes cost effective actions that address GHG emissions and support efficient infrastructure and opportunities for innovation. Management programs for forest and agricultural lands have been initiated, as well as programs to reduce emissions from government operations. Research is also being conducted to understand the impacts of climate change on water

  12. The Polar WRF Downscaled Historical and Projected Twenty-First Century Climate for the Coast and Foothills of Arctic Alaska

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Cai

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is most pronounced in the northern high latitude region. Yet, climate observations are unable to fully capture regional-scale dynamics due to the sparse weather station coverage, which limits our ability to make reliable climate-based assessments. A set of simulated data products was therefore developed for the North Slope of Alaska through a dynamical downscaling approach. The polar-optimized Weather Research and Forecast (Polar WRF model was forced by three sources: The ERA-interim reanalysis data (for 1979–2014, the Community Earth System Model 1.0 (CESM1.0 historical simulation (for 1950–2005, and the CESM1.0 projected (for 2006–2100 simulations in two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Climatic variables were produced in a 10-km grid spacing and a 3-h interval. The ERA-interim forced WRF (ERA-WRF proves the value of dynamical downscaling, which yields more realistic topographical-induced precipitation and air temperature, as well as corrects underestimations in observed precipitation. In summary, dry and cold biases to the north of the Brooks Range are presented in ERA-WRF, while CESM forced WRF (CESM-WRF holds wet and warm biases in its historical period. A linear scaling method allowed for an adjustment of the biases, while keeping the majority of the variability and extreme values of modeled precipitation and air temperature. CESM-WRF under RCP 4.5 scenario projects smaller increase in precipitation and air temperature than observed in the historical CESM-WRF product, while the CESM-WRF under RCP 8.5 scenario shows larger changes. The fine spatial and temporal resolution, long temporal coverage, and multi-scenario projections jointly make the dataset appropriate to address a myriad of physical and biological changes occurring on the North Slope of Alaska.

  13. The polar WRF downscaled historical and projected 21st century climate for the coast and foothills of Arctic Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Lei; Alexeev, Vladimir A.; Arp, Christopher D.; Jones, Benjamin M.; Liljedahl, Anna K.; Gädeke, Anne

    2018-01-01

    Climate change is most pronounced in the northern high latitude region. Yet, climate observations are unable to fully capture regional-scale dynamics due to the sparse weather station coverage, which limits our ability to make reliable climate-based assessments. A set of simulated data products was therefore developed for the North Slope of Alaska through a dynamical downscaling approach. The polar-optimized Weather Research & Forecast (Polar WRF) model was forced by three sources: The ERA-interim reanalysis data (for 1979-2014), the Community Earth System Model 1.0 (CESM1.0) historical simulation (for 1950-2005), and the CESM1.0 projected (for 2006-2100) simulations in two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios. Climatic variables were produced in a 10-km grid spacing and a 3-hour interval. The ERA-interim forced WRF (ERA-WRF) proves the value of dynamical downscaling, which yields more realistic topographical-induced precipitation and air temperature, as well as corrects underestimations in observed precipitation. In summary, dry and cold biases to the north of the Brooks Range are presented in ERA-WRF, while CESM forced WRF (CESM-WRF) holds wet and warm biases in its historical period. A linear scaling method allowed for an adjustment of the biases, while keeping the majority of the variability and extreme values of modeled precipitation and air temperature. CESM-WRF under RCP 4.5 scenario projects smaller increase in precipitation and air temperature than observed in the historical CESM-WRF product, while the CESM-WRF under RCP8.5 scenario shows larger changes. The fine spatial and temporal resolution, long temporal coverage, and multi-scenario projections jointly make the dataset appropriate to address a myriad of physical and biological changes occurring on the North Slope of Alaska.

  14. Assessing climate change impacts on water balance in the Mount

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    A statistical downscaling known for producing station-scale climate information from GCM output was preferred to evaluate the impacts of climate change within the Mount Makiling forest watershed, Philippines. The lumped hydrologic BROOK90 model was utilized for the water balance assessment of climate change ...

  15. Applying downscaled Global Climate Model data to a groundwater model of the Suwannee River Basin, Florida, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swain, Eric D.; Davis, J. Hal

    2016-01-01

    The application of Global Climate Model (GCM) output to a hydrologic model allows for comparisons between simulated recent and future conditions and provides insight into the dynamics of hydrology as it may be affected by climate change. A previously developed numerical model of the Suwannee River Basin, Florida, USA, was modified and calibrated to represent transient conditions. A simulation of recent conditions was developed for the 372-month period 1970-2000 and was compared with a simulation of future conditions for a similar-length period 2039-2069, which uses downscaled GCM data. The MODFLOW groundwater-simulation code was used in both of these simulations, and two different MODFLOW boundary condition “packages” (River and Streamflow-Routing Packages) were used to represent interactions between surface-water and groundwater features.

  16. Application of multi-scale wavelet entropy and multi-resolution Volterra models for climatic downscaling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sehgal, V.; Lakhanpal, A.; Maheswaran, R.; Khosa, R.; Sridhar, Venkataramana

    2018-01-01

    This study proposes a wavelet-based multi-resolution modeling approach for statistical downscaling of GCM variables to mean monthly precipitation for five locations at Krishna Basin, India. Climatic dataset from NCEP is used for training the proposed models (Jan.'69 to Dec.'94) and are applied to corresponding CanCM4 GCM variables to simulate precipitation for the validation (Jan.'95-Dec.'05) and forecast (Jan.'06-Dec.'35) periods. The observed precipitation data is obtained from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded precipitation product at 0.25 degree spatial resolution. This paper proposes a novel Multi-Scale Wavelet Entropy (MWE) based approach for clustering climatic variables into suitable clusters using k-means methodology. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is used to obtain the representative Principal Components (PC) explaining 90-95% variance for each cluster. A multi-resolution non-linear approach combining Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) and Second Order Volterra (SoV) is used to model the representative PCs to obtain the downscaled precipitation for each downscaling location (W-P-SoV model). The results establish that wavelet-based multi-resolution SoV models perform significantly better compared to the traditional Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) based frameworks. It is observed that the proposed MWE-based clustering and subsequent PCA, helps reduce the dimensionality of the input climatic variables, while capturing more variability compared to stand-alone k-means (no MWE). The proposed models perform better in estimating the number of precipitation events during the non-monsoon periods whereas the models with clustering without MWE over-estimate the rainfall during the dry season.

  17. Simulating Climate Change in Ireland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nolan, P.; Lynch, P.

    2012-04-01

    At the Meteorology & Climate Centre at University College Dublin, we are using the CLM-Community's COSMO-CLM Regional Climate Model (RCM) and the WRF RCM (developed at NCAR) to simulate the climate of Ireland at high spatial resolution. To address the issue of model uncertainty, a Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) approach is used. The ensemble method uses different RCMs, driven by several Global Climate Models (GCMs), to simulate climate change. Through the MME approach, the uncertainty in the RCM projections is quantified, enabling us to estimate the probability density function of predicted changes, and providing a measure of confidence in the predictions. The RCMs were validated by performing a 20-year simulation of the Irish climate (1981-2000), driven by ECMWF ERA-40 global re-analysis data, and comparing the output to observations. Results confirm that the output of the RCMs exhibit reasonable and realistic features as documented in the historical data record. Projections for the future Irish climate were generated by downscaling the Max Planck Institute's ECHAM5 GCM, the UK Met Office HadGEM2-ES GCM and the CGCM3.1 GCM from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling. Simulations were run for a reference period 1961-2000 and future period 2021-2060. The future climate was simulated using the A1B, A2, B1, RCP 4.5 & RCP 8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Results for the downscaled simulations show a substantial overall increase in precipitation and wind speed for the future winter months and a decrease during the summer months. The predicted annual change in temperature is approximately 1.1°C over Ireland. To date, all RCM projections are in general agreement, thus increasing our confidence in the robustness of the results.

  18. Bioclim Deliverable D6a: regional climatic characteristics for the European sites at specific times: the dynamical down-scaling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    The overall aim of BIOCLIM is to assess the possible long-term impacts due to climate change on the safety of radioactive waste repositories in deep formations. This aim is addressed through the following specific objectives: - Development of practical and innovative strategies for representing sequential climatic changes to the geosphere-biosphere system for existing sites over central Europe, addressing the timescale of one million years, which is relevant to the geological disposal of radioactive waste. - Exploration and evaluation of the potential effects of climate change on the nature of the biosphere systems used to assess the environmental impact. - Dissemination of information on the new methodologies and the results obtained from the project among the international waste management community for use in performance assessments of potential or planned radioactive waste repositories. The BIOCLIM project is designed to advance the state-of-the-art of biosphere modelling for use in Performance Assessments. Therefore, two strategies are developed for representing sequential climatic changes to geosphere-biosphere systems. The hierarchical strategy successively uses a hierarchy of climate models. These models vary from simple 2-D models, which simulate interactions between a few aspects of the Earth system at a rough surface resolution, through General Circulation Model (GCM) and vegetation model, which simulate in great detail the dynamics and physics of the atmosphere, ocean and biosphere, to regional models, which focus on the European regions and sites of interest. Moreover, rule-based and statistical down-scaling procedures are also considered. Comparisons are provided in terms of climate and vegetation cover at the selected times and for the study regions. The integrated strategy consists of using integrated climate models, representing all the physical mechanisms important for long-term continuous climate variations, to simulate the climate evolution over

  19. An Improved Dynamical Downscaling Method with GCM Bias Corrections and Its Validation with 30 Years of Climate Simulations

    KAUST Repository

    Xu, Zhongfeng

    2012-09-01

    An improved dynamical downscaling method (IDD) with general circulation model (GCM) bias corrections is developed and assessed over North America. A set of regional climate simulations is performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) version 3.3 embedded in the National Center for Atmospheric Research\\'s (NCAR\\'s) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). The GCM climatological means and the amplitudes of interannual variations are adjusted based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-NCAR global reanalysis products (NNRP) before using them to drive WRF. In this study, the WRF downscaling experiments are identical except the initial and lateral boundary conditions derived from the NNRP, original GCM output, and bias-corrected GCM output, respectively. The analysis finds that the IDD greatly improves the downscaled climate in both climatological means and extreme events relative to the traditional dynamical downscaling approach (TDD). The errors of downscaled climatological mean air temperature, geopotential height, wind vector, moisture, and precipitation are greatly reduced when the GCM bias corrections are applied. In the meantime, IDD also improves the downscaled extreme events characterized by the reduced errors in 2-yr return levels of surface air temperature and precipitation. In comparison with TDD, IDD is also able to produce a more realistic probability distribution in summer daily maximum temperature over the central U.S.-Canada region as well as in summer and winter daily precipitation over the middle and eastern United States. © 2012 American Meteorological Society.

  20. Dynamically-downscaled projections of changes in temperature extremes over China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Junhong; Huang, Guohe; Wang, Xiuquan; Li, Yongping; Lin, Qianguo

    2018-02-01

    In this study, likely changes in extreme temperatures (including 16 indices) over China in response to global warming throughout the twenty-first century are investigated through the PRECIS regional climate modeling system. The PRECIS experiment is conducted at a spatial resolution of 25 km and is driven by a perturbed-physics ensemble to reflect spatial variations and model uncertainties. Simulations of present climate (1961-1990) are compared with observations to validate the model performance in reproducing historical climate over China. Results indicate that the PRECIS demonstrates reasonable skills in reproducing the spatial patterns of observed extreme temperatures over the most regions of China, especially in the east. Nevertheless, the PRECIS shows a relatively poor performance in simulating the spatial patterns of extreme temperatures in the western mountainous regions, where its driving GCM exhibits more uncertainties due to lack of insufficient observations and results in more errors in climate downscaling. Future spatio-temporal changes of extreme temperature indices are then analyzed for three successive periods (i.e., 2020s, 2050s and 2080s). The projected changes in extreme temperatures by PRECIS are well consistent with the results of the major global climate models in both spatial and temporal patterns. Furthermore, the PRECIS demonstrates a distinct superiority in providing more detailed spatial information of extreme indices. In general, all extreme indices show similar changes in spatial pattern: large changes are projected in the north while small changes are projected in the south. In contrast, the temporal patterns for all indices vary differently over future periods: the warm indices, such as SU, TR, WSDI, TX90p, TN90p and GSL are likely to increase, while the cold indices, such as ID, FD, CSDI, TX10p and TN10p, are likely to decrease with time in response to global warming. Nevertheless, the magnitudes of changes in all indices tend to

  1. Projection of spatial and temporal changes of rainfall in Sarawak of Borneo Island using statistical downscaling of CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sa'adi, Zulfaqar; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Chung, Eun-Sung; Ismail, Tarmizi bin

    2017-11-01

    This study assesses the possible changes in rainfall patterns of Sarawak in Borneo Island due to climate change through statistical downscaling of General Circulation Models (GCM) projections. Available in-situ observed rainfall data were used to downscale the future rainfall from ensembles of 20 GCMs of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) for four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios, namely, RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5. Model Output Statistics (MOS) based downscaling models were developed using two data mining approaches known as Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Machine (SVM). The SVM was found to downscale all GCMs with normalized mean square error (NMSE) of 48.2-75.2 and skill score (SS) of 0.94-0.98 during validation. The results show that the future projection of the annual rainfalls is increasing and decreasing on the region-based and catchment-based basis due to the influence of the monsoon season affecting the coast of Sarawak. The ensemble mean of GCMs projections reveals the increased and decreased mean of annual precipitations at 33 stations with the rate of 0.1% to 19.6% and one station with the rate of - 7.9% to - 3.1%, respectively under all RCP scenarios. The remaining 15 stations showed inconsistency neither increasing nor decreasing at the rate of - 5.6% to 5.2%, but mainly showing a trend of decreasing rainfall during the first period (2010-2039) followed by increasing rainfall for the period of 2070-2099.

  2. Evaluation of cool season precipitation event characteristics over the Northeast US in a suite of downscaled climate model hindcasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loikith, Paul C.; Waliser, Duane E.; Kim, Jinwon; Ferraro, Robert

    2017-08-01

    Cool season precipitation event characteristics are evaluated across a suite of downscaled climate models over the northeastern US. Downscaled hindcast simulations are produced by dynamically downscaling the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA2) using the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model (RCM) and the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) global climate model. NU-WRF RCM simulations are produced at 24, 12, and 4-km horizontal resolutions using a range of spectral nudging schemes while the MERRA2 global downscaled run is provided at 12.5-km. All model runs are evaluated using four metrics designed to capture key features of precipitation events: event frequency, event intensity, even total, and event duration. Overall, the downscaling approaches result in a reasonable representation of many of the key features of precipitation events over the region, however considerable biases exist in the magnitude of each metric. Based on this evaluation there is no clear indication that higher resolution simulations result in more realistic results in general, however many small-scale features such as orographic enhancement of precipitation are only captured at higher resolutions suggesting some added value over coarser resolution. While the differences between simulations produced using nudging and no nudging are small, there is some improvement in model fidelity when nudging is introduced, especially at a cutoff wavelength of 600 km compared to 2000 km. Based on the results of this evaluation, dynamical regional downscaling using NU-WRF results in a more realistic representation of precipitation event climatology than the global downscaling of MERRA2 using GEOS-5.

  3. A regional climate model for northern Europe: model description and results from the downscaling of two GCM control simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rummukainen, M.; Räisänen, J.; Bringfelt, B.; Ullerstig, A.; Omstedt, A.; Willén, U.; Hansson, U.; Jones, C.

    This work presents a regional climate model, the Rossby Centre regional Atmospheric model (RCA1), recently developed from the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM). The changes in the HIRLAM parametrizations, necessary for climate-length integrations, are described. A regional Baltic Sea ocean model and a modeling system for the Nordic inland lake systems have been coupled with RCA1. The coupled system has been used to downscale 10-year time slices from two different general circulation model (GCM) simulations to provide high-resolution regional interpretation of large-scale modeling. A selection of the results from the control runs, i.e. the present-day climate simulations, are presented: large-scale free atmospheric fields, the surface temperature and precipitation results and results for the on-line simulated regional ocean and lake surface climates. The regional model modifies the surface climate description compared to the GCM simulations, but it is also substantially affected by the biases in the GCM simulations. The regional model also improves the representation of the regional ocean and the inland lakes, compared to the GCM results.

  4. A regional climate model for northern Europe: model description and results from the downscaling of two GCM control simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rummukainen, M.; Raeisaenen, J.; Bringfelt, B.; Ullerstig, A.; Omstedt, A.; Willen, U.; Hansson, U.; Jones, C. [Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Inst., Norrkoeping (Sweden)

    2001-03-01

    This work presents a regional climate model, the Rossby Centre regional Atmospheric model (RCA1), recently developed from the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM). The changes in the HIRLAM parametrizations, necessary for climate-length integrations, are described. A regional Baltic Sea ocean model and a modeling system for the Nordic inland lake systems have been coupled with RCA1. The coupled system has been used to downscale 10-year time slices from two different general circulation model (GCM) simulations to provide high-resolution regional interpretation of large-scale modeling. A selection of the results from the control runs, i.e. the present-day climate simulations, are presented: large-scale free atmospheric fields, the surface temperature and precipitation results and results for the on-line simulated regional ocean and lake surface climates. The regional model modifies the surface climate description compared to the GCM simulations, but it is also substantially affected by the biases in the GCM simulations. The regional model also improves the representation of the regional ocean and the inland lakes, compared to the GCM results. (orig.)

  5. Climatic changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Majgaard Krarup, Jonna

    2014-01-01

    According to Cleo Paskal climatic changes are environmental changes. They are global, but their impact is local, and manifests them selves in the landscape, in our cities, in open urban spaces, and in everyday life. The landscape and open public spaces will in many cases be the sites where...... spaces. From Henri LeFebvre’s thinking we learn that the production of space is a feed back loop, where the space is constructed when we attach meaning to it, and when the space offers meaning to us. Spatial identity is thus not the same as identifying with space. Without indentifying with space, space...... doesn’t become place, and thus not experienced as a common good. Many Danish towns are situated by the sea; this has historically supported a strong spatial, functional and economically identity of the cities, with which people have identified. Effects of globalization processes and a rising sea level...

  6. Key Findings from the U.S.-India Partnership for Climate Resilience Workshop on Development and Application of Downscaling Climate Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kunkel, K.; Dissen, J.; Easterling, D. R.; Kulkarni, A.; Akhtar, F. H.; Hayhoe, K.; Stoner, A. M. K.; Swaminathan, R.; Thrasher, B. L.

    2017-12-01

    s part of the Department of State U.S.-India Partnership for Climate Resilience (PCR), scientists from NOAA NCEI, CICS-NC, Texas Tech University (TTU), Stanford University (SU), and the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) held a workshop at IITM in Pune, India during 7-9 March 2017 on the development, techniques and applications of downscaled climate projections. Workshop participants from TTU, SU, and IITM presented state-of-the-art climate downscaling techniques using the ARRM method, NASA NEX climate products, CORDEX-South Asia and analysis tools for resilience planning and sustainable development. PCR collaborators in attendance included Indian practitioners, researchers and other NGO including the WRI Partnership for Resilience and Preparedness (PREP), The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI), and NIH. The scientific techniques were provided to workshop participants in a software package written in R by TTU scientists and several sessions were devoted to hands-on experience with the software package. The workshop further examined case studies on the use of downscaled climate data for decision making in a range of sectors, including human health, agriculture, and water resources management as well as to inform the development of the India State Action Plans. This talk will discuss key outcomes including information needs for downscaling climate projections, importance of QA/QC of the data, key findings from select case studies, and the importance of collaborations and partnerships to apply downscaling projections to help inform the development of the India State Action Plans.

  7. Impact of projected climate change on agricultural production in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The climate change projections data from global climate models were downscaled using self-organising maps technique. Under the conventional practices, results show that during long rainy season (from March to May) there is yield decline of 13% for cultivar Situka, no change for cultivar Kito and increase of 10% and ...

  8. Impact of spectral nudging on the downscaling of tropical cyclones in regional climate simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Suk-Jin; Lee, Dong-Kyou

    2016-06-01

    This study investigated the simulations of three months of seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific using the Advanced Research WRF Model. In the control experiment (CTL), the TC frequency was considerably overestimated. Additionally, the tracks of some TCs tended to have larger radii of curvature and were shifted eastward. The large-scale environments of westerly monsoon flows and subtropical Pacific highs were unreasonably simulated. The overestimated frequency of TC formation was attributed to a strengthened westerly wind field in the southern quadrants of the TC center. In comparison with the experiment with the spectral nudging method, the strengthened wind speed was mainly modulated by large-scale flow that was greater than approximately 1000 km in the model domain. The spurious formation and undesirable tracks of TCs in the CTL were considerably improved by reproducing realistic large-scale atmospheric monsoon circulation with substantial adjustment between large-scale flow in the model domain and large-scale boundary forcing modified by the spectral nudging method. The realistic monsoon circulation took a vital role in simulating realistic TCs. It revealed that, in the downscaling from large-scale fields for regional climate simulations, scale interaction between model-generated regional features and forced large-scale fields should be considered, and spectral nudging is a desirable method in the downscaling method.

  9. An effective drift correction for dynamical downscaling of decadal global climate predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paeth, Heiko; Li, Jingmin; Pollinger, Felix; Müller, Wolfgang A.; Pohlmann, Holger; Feldmann, Hendrik; Panitz, Hans-Jürgen

    2018-04-01

    Initialized decadal climate predictions with coupled climate models are often marked by substantial climate drifts that emanate from a mismatch between the climatology of the coupled model system and the data set used for initialization. While such drifts may be easily removed from the prediction system when analyzing individual variables, a major problem prevails for multivariate issues and, especially, when the output of the global prediction system shall be used for dynamical downscaling. In this study, we present a statistical approach to remove climate drifts in a multivariate context and demonstrate the effect of this drift correction on regional climate model simulations over the Euro-Atlantic sector. The statistical approach is based on an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis adapted to a very large data matrix. The climate drift emerges as a dramatic cooling trend in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and is captured by the leading EOF of the multivariate output from the global prediction system, accounting for 7.7% of total variability. The SST cooling pattern also imposes drifts in various atmospheric variables and levels. The removal of the first EOF effectuates the drift correction while retaining other components of intra-annual, inter-annual and decadal variability. In the regional climate model, the multivariate drift correction of the input data removes the cooling trends in most western European land regions and systematically reduces the discrepancy between the output of the regional climate model and observational data. In contrast, removing the drift only in the SST field from the global model has hardly any positive effect on the regional climate model.

  10. Climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-01-01

    The indicators in this bulletin are part of a national set of environmental indicators designed to provide a profile of the state of Canada's environment and measure progress towards sustainable development. A review of potential impacts on Canada shows that such changes would have wide-ranging implications for its economic sectors, social well-being including human health, and ecological systems. This document looks at the natural state of greenhouse gases which help regulate the Earth's climate. Then it looks at human influence and what is being done about it. The document then examines some indicators: Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel use; global atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases; and global and Canadian temperature variations

  11. Projected precipitation changes in South America: a dynamical downscaling within CLARIS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soerensson, Anna A. [Centra de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera, CONICET/UBA, Buenos Aires (Argentina); Menendez, Claudio G. [Centra de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera, CONICET/UBA, Buenos Aires (Argentina); Dept. de Ciencias de la Atmosfera y los Oceanos, FCEN, UBA, Buenos Aires (Argentina); Ruscica, Romina; Alexander, Peter [Dept. de Fisica, FCEN, UBA, Buenos Aires (Argentina); Samuelsson, Patrick; Willen, Ulrika [Rossby Centre, SMHI, Norrkoeping (Sweden)

    2010-06-15

    Responses of precipitation seasonal means and extremes over South America in a downscaling of a climate change scenario are assessed with the Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric Model (RCA). The anthropogenic warming under A1B scenario influences more on the likelihood of occurrence of severe extreme events like heavy precipitation and dry spells than on the mean seasonal precipitation. The risk of extreme precipitation increases in the La Plata Basin with a factor of 1.5-2.5 during all seasons and in the northwestern part of the continent with a factor 1.5-3 in summer, while it decreases in central and northeastern Brazil during winter and spring. The maximum amount of 5-days precipitation increases by up to 50% in La Plata Basin, indicating risks of flooding. Over central Brazil and the Bolivian lowland, where present 5-days precipitation is higher, the increases are similar in magnitude and could cause less impacts. In southern Amazonia, northeastern Brazil and the Amazon basin, the maximum number of consecutive dry days increases and mean winter and spring precipitation decreases, indicating a longer dry season. In the La Plata Basin, there is no clear pattern of change for the dry spell duration. (orig.)

  12. Regional climate model downscaling may improve the prediction of alien plant species distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Shuyan; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Gao, Wei; Stohlgren, Thomas J.

    2014-12-01

    Distributions of invasive species are commonly predicted with species distribution models that build upon the statistical relationships between observed species presence data and climate data. We used field observations, climate station data, and Maximum Entropy species distribution models for 13 invasive plant species in the United States, and then compared the models with inputs from a General Circulation Model (hereafter GCM-based models) and a downscaled Regional Climate Model (hereafter, RCM-based models).We also compared species distributions based on either GCM-based or RCM-based models for the present (1990-1999) to the future (2046-2055). RCM-based species distribution models replicated observed distributions remarkably better than GCM-based models for all invasive species under the current climate. This was shown for the presence locations of the species, and by using four common statistical metrics to compare modeled distributions. For two widespread invasive taxa ( Bromus tectorum or cheatgrass, and Tamarix spp. or tamarisk), GCM-based models failed miserably to reproduce observed species distributions. In contrast, RCM-based species distribution models closely matched observations. Future species distributions may be significantly affected by using GCM-based inputs. Because invasive plants species often show high resilience and low rates of local extinction, RCM-based species distribution models may perform better than GCM-based species distribution models for planning containment programs for invasive species.

  13. Changing climate, changing frames

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vink, Martinus J.; Boezeman, Daan; Dewulf, Art; Termeer, Catrien J.A.M.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► We show development of flood policy frames in context of climate change attention. ► Rising attention on climate change influences traditional flood policy framing. ► The new framing employs global-scale scientific climate change knowledge. ► With declining attention, framing disregards climate change, using local knowledge. ► We conclude that frames function as sensemaking devices selectively using knowledge. -- Abstract: Water management and particularly flood defence have a long history of collective action in low-lying countries like the Netherlands. The uncertain but potentially severe impacts of the recent climate change issue (e.g. sea level rise, extreme river discharges, salinisation) amplify the wicked and controversial character of flood safety policy issues. Policy proposals in this area generally involve drastic infrastructural works and long-term investments. They face the difficult challenge of framing problems and solutions in a publicly acceptable manner in ever changing circumstances. In this paper, we analyse and compare (1) how three key policy proposals publicly frame the flood safety issue, (2) the knowledge referred to in the framing and (3) how these frames are rhetorically connected or disconnected as statements in a long-term conversation. We find that (1) framings of policy proposals differ in the way they depict the importance of climate change, the relevant timeframe and the appropriate governance mode; (2) knowledge is selectively mobilised to underpin the different frames and (3) the frames about these proposals position themselves against the background of the previous proposals through rhetorical connections and disconnections. Finally, we discuss how this analysis hints at the importance of processes of powering and puzzling that lead to particular framings towards the public at different historical junctures

  14. Climate change beliefs and hazard mitigation behaviors: Homeowners and wildfire risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannah Brenkert-Smith; James R. Meldrum; Patricia A. Champ

    2015-01-01

    Downscaled climate models provide projections of how climate change may exacerbate the local impacts of natural hazards. The extent to which people facing exacerbated hazard conditions understand or respond to climate-related changes to local hazards has been largely overlooked. In this article, we examine the relationships among climate change beliefs, environmental...

  15. A New High Resolution Climate Dataset for Climate Change Impacts Assessments in New England

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komurcu, M.; Huber, M.

    2016-12-01

    Assessing regional impacts of climate change (such as changes in extreme events, land surface hydrology, water resources, energy, ecosystems and economy) requires much higher resolution climate variables than those available from global model projections. While it is possible to run global models in higher resolution, the high computational cost associated with these simulations prevent their use in such manner. To alleviate this problem, dynamical downscaling offers a method to deliver higher resolution climate variables. As part of an NSF EPSCoR funded interdisciplinary effort to assess climate change impacts on New Hampshire ecosystems, hydrology and economy (the New Hampshire Ecosystems and Society project), we create a unique high-resolution climate dataset for New England. We dynamically downscale global model projections under a high impact emissions scenario using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) with three nested grids of 27, 9 and 3 km horizontal resolution with the highest resolution innermost grid focusing over New England. We prefer dynamical downscaling over other methods such as statistical downscaling because it employs physical equations to progressively simulate climate variables as atmospheric processes interact with surface processes, emissions, radiation, clouds, precipitation and other model components, hence eliminates fix relationships between variables. In addition to simulating mean changes in regional climate, dynamical downscaling also allows for the simulation of climate extremes that significantly alter climate change impacts. We simulate three time slices: 2006-2015, 2040-2060 and 2080-2100. This new high-resolution climate dataset (with more than 200 variables saved in hourly (six hourly) intervals for the highest resolution domain (outer two domains)) along with model input and restart files used in our WRF simulations will be publicly available for use to the broader scientific community to support in-depth climate

  16. Dynamical downscaling of ERA-40 in complex terrain using the WRF regional climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heikkilae, U. [Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Uni Bjerknes Centre, Bergen (Norway); Sandvik, A. [Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Institute for Marine Research (IMR), Bergen (Norway); Sorteberg, A. [University of Bergen, Geophysical Institute, Bergen (Norway)

    2011-10-15

    Results from a first-time employment of the WRF regional climate model to climatological simulations in Europe are presented. The ERA-40 reanalysis (resolution 1 ) has been downscaled to a horizontal resolution of 30 and 10 km for the period of 1961-1990. This model setup includes the whole North Atlantic in the 30 km domain and spectral nudging is used to keep the large scales consistent with the driving ERA-40 reanalysis. The model results are compared against an extensive observational network of surface variables in complex terrain in Norway. The comparison shows that the WRF model is able to add significant detail to the representation of precipitation and 2-m temperature of the ERA-40 reanalysis. Especially the geographical distribution, wet day frequency and extreme values of precipitation are highly improved due to the better representation of the orography. Refining the resolution from 30 to 10 km further increases the skill of the model, especially in case of precipitation. Our results indicate that the use of 10-km resolution is advantageous for producing regional future climate projections. Use of a large domain and spectral nudging seems to be useful in reproducing the extreme precipitation events due to the better resolved synoptic scale features over the North Atlantic, and also helps to reduce the large regional temperature biases over Norway. This study presents a high-resolution, high-quality climatological data set useful for reference climate impact studies. (orig.)

  17. Climate change impacts in Zhuoshui watershed, Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Yi-Chiung; Liu, Pei-Ling; Cheng, Chao-Tzuen; Li, Hsin-Chi; Wu, Tingyeh; Chen, Wei-Bo; Shih, Hung-Ju

    2017-04-01

    There are 5.3 typhoons hit Taiwan per year on average in last decade. Typhoon Morakot in 2009, the most severe typhoon, causes huge damage in Taiwan, including 677 casualty and roughly NT 110 billion (3.3 billion USD) in economic loss. Some researches documented that typhoon frequency will decrease but increase in intensity in western North Pacific region. It is usually preferred to use high resolution dynamical model to get better projection of extreme events; because coarse resolution models cannot simulate intense extreme events. Under that consideration, dynamical downscaling climate data was chosen to describe typhoon satisfactorily. One of the aims for Taiwan Climate Change Projection and Information Platform (TCCIP) is to demonstrate the linkage between climate change data and watershed impact models. The purpose is to understand relative disasters induced by extreme rainfall (typhoons) under climate change in watersheds including landslides, debris flows, channel erosion and deposition, floods, and economic loss. The study applied dynamic downscaling approach to release climate change projected typhoon events under RCP 8.5, the worst-case scenario. The Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability (TRIGRS) and FLO-2D models, then, were used to simulate hillslope disaster impacts in the upstream of Zhuoshui River. CCHE1D model was used to elevate the sediment erosion or deposition in channel. FVCOM model was used to asses a flood impact in urban area in the downstream. Finally, whole potential loss associate with these typhoon events was evaluated by the Taiwan Typhoon Loss Assessment System (TLAS) under climate change scenario. Results showed that the total loss will increase roughly by NT 49.7 billion (1.6 billion USD) in future in Zhuoshui watershed in Taiwan. The results of this research could help to understand future impact; however model bias still exists. Because typhoon track is a critical factor to consider regional

  18. Expected impacts of climate change on extreme climate events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Planton, S.; Deque, M.; Chauvin, F.; Terray, L.

    2008-01-01

    An overview of the expected change of climate extremes during this century due to greenhouse gases and aerosol anthropogenic emissions is presented. The most commonly used methodologies rely on the dynamical or statistical down-scaling of climate projections, performed with coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. Either of dynamical or of statistical type, down-scaling methods present strengths and weaknesses, but neither their validation on present climate conditions, nor their potential ability to project the impact of climate change on extreme event statistics allows one to give a specific advantage to one of the two types. The results synthesized in the last IPCC report and more recent studies underline a convergence for a very likely increase in heat wave episodes over land surfaces, linked to the mean warming and the increase in temperature variability. In addition, the number of days of frost should decrease and the growing season length should increase. The projected increase in heavy precipitation events appears also as very likely over most areas and also seems linked to a change in the shape of the precipitation intensity distribution. The global trends for drought duration are less consistent between models and down-scaling methodologies, due to their regional variability. The change of wind-related extremes is also regionally dependent, and associated to a poleward displacement of the mid-latitude storm tracks. The specific study of extreme events over France reveals the high sensitivity of some statistics of climate extremes at the decadal time scale as a consequence of regional climate internal variability. (authors)

  19. Mapping past, present, and future climatic suitability for invasive Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in the United States: a process-based modeling approach using CMIP5 downscaled climate scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donnelly, M. A. P.; Marcantonio, M.; Melton, F. S.; Barker, C. M.

    2016-12-01

    The ongoing spread of the mosquitoes, Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus, in the continental United States leaves new areas at risk for local transmission of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses. All three viruses have caused major disease outbreaks in the Americas with infected travelers returning regularly to the U.S. The expanding range of these mosquitoes raises questions about whether recent spread has been enabled by climate change or other anthropogenic influences. In this analysis, we used downscaled climate scenarios from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX GDDP) dataset to model Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus population growth rates across the United States. We used a stage-structured matrix population model to understand past and present climatic suitability for these vectors, and to project future suitability under CMIP5 climate change scenarios. Our results indicate that much of the southern U.S. is suitable for both Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus year-round. In addition, a large proportion of the U.S. is seasonally suitable for mosquito population growth, creating the potential for periodic incursions into new areas. Changes in climatic suitability in recent decades for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus have occurred already in many regions of the U.S., and model projections of future climate suggest that climate change will continue to reshape the range of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus in the U.S., and potentially the risk of the viruses they transmit.

  20. Mapping Past, Present, and Future Climatic Suitability for Invasive Aedes Aegypti and Aedes Albopictus in the United States: A Process-Based Modeling Approach Using CMIP5 Downscaled Climate Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donnelly, Marisa Anne Pella; Marcantonio, Matteo; Melton, Forrest S.; Barker, Christopher M.

    2016-01-01

    The ongoing spread of the mosquitoes, Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus, in the continental United States leaves new areas at risk for local transmission of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses. All three viruses have caused major disease outbreaks in the Americas with infected travelers returning regularly to the U.S. The expanding range of these mosquitoes raises questions about whether recent spread has been enabled by climate change or other anthropogenic influences. In this analysis, we used downscaled climate scenarios from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX GDDP) dataset to model Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus population growth rates across the United States. We used a stage-structured matrix population model to understand past and present climatic suitability for these vectors, and to project future suitability under CMIP5 climate change scenarios. Our results indicate that much of the southern U.S. is suitable for both Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus year-round. In addition, a large proportion of the U.S. is seasonally suitable for mosquito population growth, creating the potential for periodic incursions into new areas. Changes in climatic suitability in recent decades for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus have occurred already in many regions of the U.S., and model projections of future climate suggest that climate change will continue to reshape the range of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus in the U.S., and potentially the risk of the viruses they transmit.

  1. Regional and urban downscaling of global climate scenarios for health impact assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    San Jose, R.; Perez, J.L.; Perez, L.; Gonzalez, R.M.; Pecci, J.; Garzon, A.; Palacios, M.

    2015-07-01

    In this contribution we have used global climate RCP IPCC scenarios to produce climate and air pollution maps at regional (25 km resolution) and urban scale with 200 m spatial resolution over Europe and five European cities in order to investigate the impact on meteorological variables and pollutant concentrations . We have used the very well known mesoscale meeorological model WRF-Chem (NOAA, US). We have used 2011 as control past year and two RCP scenarios from CCSM global climate model with 4.5 W/m2 and 8.5 W/m2 for 2030, 2050 and 2100 years. After running WRF-Chem model, using the boundary conditions provided by RCP scenarios with the emissions of 2011, we have performed a detailed downscaling process using CALMET diagnostic model to obtain a full 200 m spatial resolution map of five European cities (London, Antwerp, Madrid, Milan, and Helsinki). We will show the results and the health impacts for future RCP IPCC climate scenarios in comparison with the 2011 control year information for climate and health indicators. Finnally, we have also investigated the impact of the aerosol effects in the short wave radiation mean value. Two simulations with the WRF-Chem model have been performed over Europe in 2010. A baseline simulation without any feedback effects and a second simulation including the direct effects affecting the solar radiation reaching the surface as well as the indirect aerosol effect with potential impacts on increasing or decreasing the precipitation rates. Aerosol effects produce an increase of incoming radiation over Atlantic Ocean (up to 70%) because the prescribed aerosol concentrations in the WRF-Chem without feedbacks is substantially higher than the aerosol concentrations produced when we activate the feedback effects. The decrease in solar radiation in the Sahara area (10%) is found to be produced because the prescribed aerosol concentration in the {sup n}o feedback{sup s}imulation is lower than when we activate the feedback effects. (Author)

  2. Climate change and potato production in contrasting South African agro-ecosystems 1. Effects on land and water use efficiencies

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Haverkort, AJ

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Explorations of the impact of climate change on potential potato yields were obtained by downscaling the projections of six different coupled climate models to high spatial resolution over southern Africa. The simulations of daily maximum...

  3. Consistency and Main Differences Between European Regional Climate Downscaling Intercomparison Results; From PRUDENCE and ENSEMBLES to CORDEX

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christensen, J. H.; Larsen, M. A. D.; Christensen, O. B.; Drews, M.

    2017-12-01

    For more than 20 years, coordinated efforts to apply regional climate models to downscale GCM simulations for Europe have been pursued by an ever increasing group of scientists. This endeavor showed its first results during EU framework supported projects such as RACCS and MERCURE. Here, the foundation for today's advanced worldwide CORDEX approach was laid out by a core of six research teams, who conducted some of the first coordinated RCM simulations with the aim to assess regional climate change for Europe. However, it was realized at this stage that model bias in GCMs as well as RCMs made this task very challenging. As an immediate outcome, the idea was conceived to make an even more coordinated effort by constructing a well-defined and structured set of common simulations; this lead to the PRUDENCE project (2001-2004). Additional coordinated efforts involving ever increasing numbers of GCMs and RCMs followed in ENSEMBLES (2004-2009) and the ongoing Euro-CORDEX (officially commenced 2011) efforts. Along with the overall coordination, simulations have increased their standard resolution from 50km (PRUDENCE) to about 12km (Euro-CORDEX) and from time slice simulations (PRUDENCE) to transient experiments (ENSEMBLES and CORDEX); from one driving model and emission scenario (PRUDENCE) to several (Euro-CORDEX). So far, this wealth of simulations have been used to assess the potential impacts of future climate change in Europe providing a baseline change as defined by a multi-model mean change with associated uncertainties calculated from model spread in the ensemble. But how has the overall picture of state-of-the-art regional climate change projections changed over this period of almost two decades? Here we compare across scenarios, model resolutions and model vintage the results from PRUDENCE, ENSEMBLES and Euro-CORDEX. By appropriate scaling we identify robust findings about the projected future of European climate expressed by temperature and precipitation changes

  4. Multilayer perceptron neural network for downscaling rainfall in arid ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    3Research Center for Climate Change, Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing, ... system models (ESMs) are considered as the ... downscaling methods, regression models, which are ...... a decision support tool for the assessment of regional.

  5. Climate variability and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rind, D.

    1990-01-01

    Changes of variability with climate change are likely to have a substantial impact on vegetation and society, rivaling the importance of changes in the mean values themselves. A variety of paleoclimate and future climate simulations performed with the GISS global climate model is used to assess how the variabilities of temperature and precipitation are altered as climate warms or cools. In general, as climate warms, temperature variability decreases due to reductions in the latitudinal temperature gradient and precipitation variability increases together with the intensity of the hydrologic cycle. If future climate projections are accurate, the reduction in temperature variability will be minimized by the rapid change in mean temperatures, but the hydrologic variability will be amplified by increased evapotranspiration. Greater hydrologic variability would appear to pose a potentially severe problem for the next century

  6. Climate variability and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rind, D.

    1991-01-01

    Changes of variability with climate change are likely to have a substantial impact on vegetation and society, rivaling the importance of changes in the mean values themselves. A variety of paleoclimate and future climate simulations performed with the GISS global climate model is used to assess how the variabilities of temperature and precipitation are altered as climate warms or cools. In general, as climate warms, temperature variability decreases due to reductions in the latitudinal temperature gradient and precipitation variability increases together with the intensity of the hydrologic cycle. If future climate projections are accurate, the reduction in temperature variability will be minimized by the rapid change in mean temperatures, but the hydrologic variability will be amplified by increased evapotranspiration. Greater hydrologic variability would appear to pose a potentially severe problem for the next century. 19 refs.; 3 figs.; 2 tabs

  7. Reduction of systematic biases in regional climate downscaling through ensemble forcing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Hongwei; Wang, Bin [Chinese Academy of Sciences, LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing (China); Wang, Bin [University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Meteorology, Honolulu, Hawaii (United States); University of Hawaii at Manoa, International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, Hawaii (United States)

    2012-02-15

    Simulations of the East Asian summer monsoon for the period of 1979-2001 were carried out using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model forced by three reanalysis datasets (NCEP-R2, ERA-40, and JRA-25). The experiments forced by different reanalysis data exhibited remarkable differences, primarily caused by uncertainties in the lateral boundary (LB) moisture fluxes over the Bay of Bengal and the Philippine Sea. The climatological mean water vapor convergence into the model domain computed from ERA-40 was about 24% higher than that from the NCEP-R2 reanalysis. We demonstrate that using the ensemble mean of NCEP-R2, ERA-40, and JRA-25 as LB forcing considerably reduced the biases in the model simulation. The use of ensemble forcing improved the performance in simulated mean circulation and precipitation, inter-annual variation in seasonal precipitation, and daily precipitation. The model simulated precipitation was superior to that in the reanalysis in both climatology and year-to-year variations, indicating the added value of dynamic downscaling. The results suggest that models having better performance under one set of LB forcing might worsen when another set of reanalysis data is used as LB forcing. Use of ensemble mean LB forcing for assessing regional climate model performance is recommended. (orig.)

  8. Evaluations of high-resolution dynamically downscaled ensembles over the contiguous United States Climate Dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zobel, Zachary; Wang, Jiali; Wuebbles, Donald J.; Kotamarthi, V. Rao

    2018-02-01

    This study uses Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to evaluate the performance of six dynamical downscaled decadal historical simulations with 12-km resolution for a large domain (7200 x 6180 km) that covers most of North America. The initial and boundary conditions are from three global climate models (GCMs) and one reanalysis data. The GCMs employed in this study are the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model with Generalized Ocean Layer Dynamics component, Community Climate System Model, version 4, and the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model, version 2-Earth System. The reanalysis data is from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-US. Department of Energy Reanalysis II. We analyze the effects of bias correcting, the lateral boundary conditions and the effects of spectral nudging. We evaluate the model performance for seven surface variables and four upper atmospheric variables based on their climatology and extremes for seven subregions across the United States. The results indicate that the simulation’s performance depends on both location and the features/variable being tested. We find that the use of bias correction and/or nudging is beneficial in many situations, but employing these when running the RCM is not always an improvement when compared to the reference data. The use of an ensemble mean and median leads to a better performance in measuring the climatology, while it is significantly biased for the extremes, showing much larger differences than individual GCM driven model simulations from the reference data. This study provides a comprehensive evaluation of these historical model runs in order to make informed decisions when making future projections.

  9. Climate changes your business

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    Businesses face much bigger climate change costs than they realise. That is the conclusion of Climate Changes Your Business. The climate change risks that companies should be paying more attention to are physical risks, regulatory risks as well as risk to reputation and the emerging risk of litigation, says the report. It argues that the risks associated with climate change tend to be underestimated

  10. Uncertainties in extreme precipitation under climate change conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia

    of adaptation strategies, but these changes are subject to uncertainties. The focus of this PhD thesis is the quantification of uncertainties in changes in extreme precipitation. It addresses two of the main sources of uncertainty in climate change impact studies: regional climate models (RCMs) and statistical...... downscaling methods (SDMs). RCMs provide information on climate change at the regional scale. SDMs are used to bias-correct and downscale the outputs of the RCMs to the local scale of interest in adaptation strategies. In the first part of the study, a multi-model ensemble of RCMs from the European ENSEMBLES...... project was used to quantify the uncertainty in RCM projections over Denmark. Three aspects of the RCMs relevant for the uncertainty quantification were first identified and investigated. These are: the interdependency of the RCMs; the performance in current climate; and the change in the performance...

  11. Understanding climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fellous, J.L.; Gautier, C.; Andre, J.C.; Balstad, R.; Boucher, O.; Brasseur, G.; Chahine, M.T.; Chanin, M.L.; Ciais, P.; Corell, W.; Duplessy, J.C.; Hourcade, J.C.; Jouzel, J.; Kaufman, Y.J.; Laval, K.; Le Treut, H.; Minster, J.F.; Moore, B. III; Morel, P.; Rasool, S.I.; Remy, F.; Smith, R.C.; Somerville, R.C.J.; Wood, E.F.; Wood, H.; Wunsch, C.

    2007-01-01

    Climatic change is gaining ground and with no doubt is stimulated by human activities. It is therefore urgent to better understand its nature, importance and potential impacts. The chapters of this book have been written by US and French experts of the global warming question. After a description of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, GIEC in French) consensus, they present the past and present researches on each of the main component of the climate system, on the question of climatic change impacts and on the possible answers. The conclusion summarizes the results of each chapter. Content: presentation of the IPCC; greenhouse effect, radiation balance and clouds; atmospheric aerosols and climatic change; global water cycle and climate; influence of climatic change on the continental hydrologic cycle; ocean and climate; ice and climate; global carbon cycle; about some impacts of climatic change on Europe and the Atlantic Ocean; interaction between atmospheric chemistry and climate; climate and society, the human dimension. (J.S.)

  12. Climate Change Impacts on Rainfall Extremes and Urban Drainage: a State-of-the-Art Review

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willems, Patrick; Olsson, Jonas; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2013-01-01

    climate change: influence of data limitation, instrumental or environmental changes, interannual variations and longer term climate oscillations on trend testing results. Analysis of long-term future trends due to anthropogenic climate change: by complementing empirical historical data with the results...... from physically-based climate models, dynamic downscaling to the urban scale by means of Limited Area Models (LAMs) including explicitly small-scale cloud processes; validation of RCM/GCM results for local conditions accounting for natural variability, limited length of the available time series......, difference in spatial scales, and influence of climate oscillations; statistical downscaling methods combined with bias correction; uncertainties associated with the climate forcing scenarios, the climate models, the initial states and the statistical downscaling step; uncertainties in the impact models (e...

  13. Importance of Preserving Cross-correlation in developing Statistically Downscaled Climate Forcings and in estimating Land-surface Fluxes and States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das Bhowmik, R.; Arumugam, S.

    2015-12-01

    Multivariate downscaling techniques exhibited superiority over univariate regression schemes in terms of preserving cross-correlations between multiple variables- precipitation and temperature - from GCMs. This study focuses on two aspects: (a) develop an analytical solutions on estimating biases in cross-correlations from univariate downscaling approaches and (b) quantify the uncertainty in land-surface states and fluxes due to biases in cross-correlations in downscaled climate forcings. Both these aspects are evaluated using climate forcings available from both historical climate simulations and CMIP5 hindcasts over the entire US. The analytical solution basically relates the univariate regression parameters, co-efficient of determination of regression and the co-variance ratio between GCM and downscaled values. The analytical solutions are compared with the downscaled univariate forcings by choosing the desired p-value (Type-1 error) in preserving the observed cross-correlation. . For quantifying the impacts of biases on cross-correlation on estimating streamflow and groundwater, we corrupt the downscaled climate forcings with different cross-correlation structure.

  14. Climate Change Indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Presents information, charts and graphs showing measured climate changes across 40 indicators related to greenhouse gases, weather and climate, oceans, snow and ice, heath and society, and ecosystems.

  15. CLIMATE CHANGE, Change International Negociations?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Gao Xiaosheng

    2009-01-01

    @@ Climate change is one of key threats to human beings who have to deal with.According to Bali Action Plan released after the 2007 Bali Climate Talk held in Indonesia,the United Nations Framework on Climate Change(UNFCCC) has launched a two-year process to negotiate a post-2012 climate arrangement after the Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012 and the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference will seal a final deal on post-2012 climate regime in December,2009.For this,the United Nation Chief Ban Ki Moon called 2009"the year ofclimate change".

  16. Bioclim Deliverable D8b: development of the physical/statistical down-scaling methodology and application to climate model Climber for BIOCLIM Work-package 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    The overall aim of BIOCLIM is to assess the possible long term impacts due to climate change on the safety of radioactive waste repositories in deep formations. The main aim of this deliverable is to provide time series of climatic variables at the high resolution as needed by performance assessment (PA) of radioactive waste repositories, on the basis of coarse output from the CLIMBER-GREMLINS climate model. The climatological variables studied here are long-term (monthly) mean temperature and precipitation, as these are the main variables of interest for performance assessment. CLIMBER-GREMLINS is an earth-system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC), designed for long climate simulations (glacial cycles). Thus, this model has a coarse resolution (about 50 degrees in longitude) and other limitations which are sketched in this report. For the purpose of performance assessment, the climatological variables are required at scales pertinent for the knowledge of the conditions at the depository site. In this work, the final resolution is that of the best available global gridded present-day climatology, which is 1/6 degree in both longitude and latitude. To obtain climate-change information at this high resolution on the basis of the climate model outputs, a 2-step down-scaling method is designed. First, physical considerations are used to define variables which are expected to have links which climatological values; secondly a statistical model is used to find the links between these variables and the high-resolution climatology of temperature and precipitation. Thus the method is termed as 'physical/statistical': it involves physically based assumptions to compute predictors from model variables and then relies on statistics to find empirical links between these predictors and the climatology. The simple connection of coarse model results to regional values can not be done on a purely empirical way because the model does not provide enough information - it is both

  17. Downscaling GRACE Remote Sensing Datasets to High-Resolution Groundwater Storage Change Maps of California’s Central Valley

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michelle E. Miro

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE has already proven to be a powerful data source for regional groundwater assessments in many areas around the world. However, the applicability of GRACE data products to more localized studies and their utility to water management authorities have been constrained by their limited spatial resolution (~200,000 km2. Researchers have begun to address these shortcomings with data assimilation approaches that integrate GRACE-derived total water storage estimates into complex regional models, producing higher-resolution estimates of hydrologic variables (~2500 km2. Here we take those approaches one step further by developing an empirically based model capable of downscaling GRACE data to a high-resolution (~16 km2 dataset of groundwater storage changes over a portion of California’s Central Valley. The model utilizes an artificial neural network to generate a series of high-resolution maps of groundwater storage change from 2002 to 2010 using GRACE estimates of variations in total water storage and a series of widely available hydrologic variables (PRISM precipitation and temperature data, digital elevation model (DEM-derived slope, and Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS soil type. The neural network downscaling model is able to accurately reproduce local groundwater behavior, with acceptable Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE values for calibration and validation (ranging from 0.2445 to 0.9577 and 0.0391 to 0.7511, respectively. Ultimately, the model generates maps of local groundwater storage change at a 100-fold higher resolution than GRACE gridded data products without the use of computationally intensive physical models. The model’s simulated maps have the potential for application to local groundwater management initiatives in the region.

  18. Climate change and climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alfsen, Knut H.; Kolshus, Hans H.; Torvanger, Asbjoern

    2000-08-01

    The climate issue is a great political and scientific challenge for several reasons: (1) There are many uncertain aspects of the climate problem, such as future emission of climate gases, the response of the climate system upon these gases, and the effects of climate changes. (2) It is probable, however, that anthropogenic emission of climate gases, deforestation etc. will cause noticeable climate changes in the future. This might be observed as increased frequency of extreme weather situations. This appears to be a greater threat than a gradual increase of temperature and precipitation. (3) Since the climate system is large and react only relatively slowly on changes in for instance the emission of climate gases, the climate problem can only be solved by means of long-term measures. (4) The climate changes may be irreversible. A rational short-term strategy is to ensure maximum flexibility, which can be done by ''slowing down'' (curtailing emissions) and by avoiding irreversible actions as much as possible. The long-term challenge is to develop an economically responsible alternative to the present fossil-based energy system that permits carbon-efficient technologies to compete on price with coal and unconventional oil and gas. Norway is in a special position by being a large exporter of fossil fuel and at the same time wanting to appear responsible in environmental matters. This combination may incur considerable expenses upon Norway and it is therefore important that environmental commitments like the Kyoto agreement can be honoured to the lowest possible cost. The costs can be minimized by: (1) minimizing the measure costs in Norway, (2) working to make the international quota price as low as possible, and (3) reducing the loss of petroleum income as much as possible. This report describes the earth's climate history, the forces behind climatic changes and what the prospects for the future look like. It also reviews what is being done to curtail the emission of

  19. Assimilating Non-linear Effects of Customized Large-Scale Climate Predictors on Downscaled Precipitation over the Tropical Andes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina, J. M.; Zaitchik, B. F.

    2016-12-01

    Recent findings considering high CO2 emission scenarios (RCP8.5) suggest that the tropical Andes may experience a massive warming and a significant precipitation increase (decrease) during the wet (dry) seasons by the end of the 21st century. Variations on rainfall-streamflow relationships and seasonal crop yields significantly affect human development in this region and make local communities highly vulnerable to climate change and variability. We developed an expert-informed empirical statistical downscaling (ESD) algorithm to explore and construct robust global climate predictors to perform skillful RCP8.5 projections of in-situ March-May (MAM) precipitation required for impact modeling and adaptation studies. We applied our framework to a topographically-complex region of the Colombian Andes where a number of previous studies have reported El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as the main driver of climate variability. Supervised machine learning algorithms were trained with customized and bias-corrected predictors from NCEP reanalysis, and a cross-validation approach was implemented to assess both predictive skill and model selection. We found weak and not significant teleconnections between precipitation and lagged seasonal surface temperatures over El Niño3.4 domain, which suggests that ENSO fails to explain MAM rainfall variability in the study region. In contrast, series of Sea Level Pressure (SLP) over American Samoa -likely associated with the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)- explains more than 65% of the precipitation variance. The best prediction skill was obtained with Selected Generalized Additive Models (SGAM) given their ability to capture linear/nonlinear relationships present in the data. While SPCZ-related series exhibited a positive linear effect in the rainfall response, SLP predictors in the north Atlantic and central equatorial Pacific showed nonlinear effects. A multimodel (MIROC, CanESM2 and CCSM) ensemble of ESD projections revealed

  20. Decision- rather than scenario-centred downscaling: Towards smarter use of climate model outputs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilby, Robert L.

    2013-04-01

    Climate model output has been used for hydrological impact assessments for at least 25 years. Scenario-led methods raise awareness about risks posed by climate variability and change to the security of supplies, performance of water infrastructure, and health of freshwater ecosystems. However, it is less clear how these analyses translate into actionable information for adaptation. One reason is that scenario-led methods typically yield very large uncertainty bounds in projected impacts at regional and river catchment scales. Consequently, there is growing interest in vulnerability-based frameworks and strategies for employing climate model output in decision-making contexts. This talk begins by summarising contrasting perspectives on climate models and principles for testing their utility for water sector applications. Using selected examples it is then shown how water resource systems may be adapted with varying levels of reliance on climate model information. These approaches include the conventional scenario-led risk assessment, scenario-neutral strategies, safety margins and sensitivity testing, and adaptive management of water systems. The strengths and weaknesses of each approach are outlined and linked to selected water management activities. These cases show that much progress can be made in managing water systems without dependence on climate models. Low-regret measures such as improved forecasting, better inter-agency co-operation, and contingency planning, yield benefits regardless of the climate outlook. Nonetheless, climate model scenarios are useful for evaluating adaptation portfolios, identifying system thresholds and fixing weak links, exploring the timing of investments, improving operating rules, or developing smarter licensing regimes. The most problematic application remains the climate change safety margin because of the very low confidence in extreme precipitation and river flows generated by climate models. In such cases, it is necessary to

  1. Climate Change and Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Home / News / Fact sheets / Detail WHO /A. Craggs Climate change and health 1 February 2018 ","datePublished":"2018-02- ... in improved health, particularly through reduced air pollution. Climate change Over the last 50 years, human activities – particularly ...

  2. Quantifying the effects of climate change on water resources in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Van Roosmalen, Lieke Petronella G; Sonnenborg, Torben O.; Christensen, Jens H.

    2007-01-01

    climatological output data from the regional climate model HIRHAM (Danish Meteorological Institute), which dynamically downscales the climate change signals from the coarser resolution global climate model HadAM3H (Hadley Centre), with the concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols based on the IPCC SRES A2...

  3. Climate Change and Malaria

    OpenAIRE

    Goklany;, I. M.

    2004-01-01

    Sir David A. King's claim that "Climate change is the most severe problem that we are facing today—more serious even than the threat of terrorism" "Climate change is the most severe problem that we are facing today—more serious even than the threat of terrorism" ("Climate change

  4. Uncertainty and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Berliner, L. Mark

    2003-01-01

    Anthropogenic, or human-induced, climate change is a critical issue in science and in the affairs of humankind. Though the target of substantial research, the conclusions of climate change studies remain subject to numerous uncertainties. This article presents a very brief review of the basic arguments regarding anthropogenic climate change with particular emphasis on uncertainty.

  5. Trees and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Dettenmaier, Megan; Kuhns, Michael; Unger, Bethany; McAvoy, Darren

    2017-01-01

    This fact sheet describes the complex relationship between forests and climate change based on current research. It explains ways that trees can mitigate some of the risks associated with climate change. It details the impacts that forests are having on the changing climate and discuss specific ways that trees can be used to reduce or counter carbon emissions directly and indirectly.

  6. Two-way against one-way nesting for climate downscaling in Europe and the Mediterranean region using LMDZ4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Shan; Li, Laurent; Le Treut, Hervé

    2016-04-01

    In the 21st century, the estimated surface temperature warming projected by General Circulation Models (GCMs) is between 0.3 and 4.8 °C, depending on the scenario considered. GCMs exhibit a good representation of climate on a global scale, but they are not able to reproduce regional climate processes with the same level of accuracy. Society and policymakers need model projections to define climate change adaptation and mitigation policies on a global, regional and local scale. Climate downscaling is mostly conducted with a regional model nested into the outputs of a global model. This one-way nesting approach is generally used in the climate community without feedbacks from Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to GCMs. This lack of interaction between the two models may affect regional modes of variability, in particular those with a boundary conflict. The objective of this study is to evaluate a two-way nesting configuration that makes an interactive coupling between the RCM and the GCM, an approach against the traditional configuration of one-way nesting system. An additional aim of this work is to examine if the two-way nesting system can improve the RCM performance. The atmospheric component of the IPSL integrated climate model (LMDZ) is configured at both regional (LMDZ-regional) and global (LMDZ-global) scales. The two models have the same configuration for the dynamical framework and the physical forcings. The climatology values of sea surface temperature (SST) are prescribed for the two models. The stretched-grid of LMDZ-global is applied to a region defined by Europe, the Mediterranean, North Africa and Western North Atlantic. To ensure a good statistical significance of results, all simulations last at least 80 years. The nesting process of models is performed by a relaxation procedure of a time scale of 90 minutes. In the case of two-way nesting, the exchange between the two models is every two hours. The relaxation procedure induces a boundary conflict

  7. Projected climate change futures for Southern Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Tadross, M

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available of the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) in South Africa. In these experiments, a variable-resolution atmospheric global circulation model, CCAM, was applied as a regional climate model (RCM) to simulate both present-day and future climate... climate projection Observed climate RCM Climate forcing Climate simulation Statistical downscaling Dynamical downscaling 22 | Second Edition There are four pathways – RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5. RCP 2.6 describes a scenario of very low...

  8. Possible future changes in South East Australian frost frequency: an inter-comparison of statistical downscaling approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crimp, Steven; Jin, Huidong; Kokic, Philip; Bakar, Shuvo; Nicholls, Neville

    2018-04-01

    Anthropogenic climate change has already been shown to effect the frequency, intensity, spatial extent, duration and seasonality of extreme climate events. Understanding these changes is an important step in determining exposure, vulnerability and focus for adaptation. In an attempt to support adaptation decision-making we have examined statistical modelling techniques to improve the representation of global climate model (GCM) derived projections of minimum temperature extremes (frosts) in Australia. We examine the spatial changes in minimum temperature extreme metrics (e.g. monthly and seasonal frost frequency etc.), for a region exhibiting the strongest station trends in Australia, and compare these changes with minimum temperature extreme metrics derived from 10 GCMs, from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP 5) datasets, and via statistical downscaling. We compare the observed trends with those derived from the "raw" GCM minimum temperature data as well as examine whether quantile matching (QM) or spatio-temporal (spTimerQM) modelling with Quantile Matching can be used to improve the correlation between observed and simulated extreme minimum temperatures. We demonstrate, that the spTimerQM modelling approach provides correlations with observed daily minimum temperatures for the period August to November of 0.22. This represents an almost fourfold improvement over either the "raw" GCM or QM results. The spTimerQM modelling approach also improves correlations with observed monthly frost frequency statistics to 0.84 as opposed to 0.37 and 0.81 for the "raw" GCM and QM results respectively. We apply the spatio-temporal model to examine future extreme minimum temperature projections for the period 2016 to 2048. The spTimerQM modelling results suggest the persistence of current levels of frost risk out to 2030, with the evidence of continuing decadal variation.

  9. A new methodology for building local climate change scenarios : A case study of monthly temperature projections for Mexico City

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Estrada, Francisco; Guerrero, VíCtor M.

    2014-01-01

    This paper proposes a new methodology for generating climate change scenarios at the local scale based on multivariate time series models and restricted forecasting techniques. This methodology offers considerable advantages over the current statistical downscaling techniques such as: (i) it

  10. Climate for Change?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wejs, Anja

    Cities rather than national governments take the lead in acting on climate change. Several cities have voluntarily created climate change plans to prevent and prepare for the effects of climate change. In the literature climate change has been examined as a multilevel governance area taking place...... around international networks. Despite the many initiatives taken by cities, existing research shows that the implementation of climate change actions is lacking. The reasons for this scarcity in practice are limited to general explanations in the literature, and studies focused on explaining...... the constraints on climate change planning at the local level are absent. To understand these constraints, this PhD thesis investigates the institutional dynamics that influence the process of the integration of climate change into planning practices at the local level in Denmark. The examination of integration...

  11. European extra-tropical storm damage risk from a multi-model ensemble of dynamically-downscaled global climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haylock, M. R.

    2011-10-01

    Uncertainty in the return levels of insured loss from European wind storms was quantified using storms derived from twenty-two 25 km regional climate model runs driven by either the ERA40 reanalyses or one of four coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models. Storms were identified using a model-dependent storm severity index based on daily maximum 10 m wind speed. The wind speed from each model was calibrated to a set of 7 km historical storm wind fields using the 70 storms with the highest severity index in the period 1961-2000, employing a two stage calibration methodology. First, the 25 km daily maximum wind speed was downscaled to the 7 km historical model grid using the 7 km surface roughness length and orography, also adopting an empirical gust parameterisation. Secondly, downscaled wind gusts were statistically scaled to the historical storms to match the geographically-dependent cumulative distribution function of wind gust speed. The calibrated wind fields were run through an operational catastrophe reinsurance risk model to determine the return level of loss to a European population density-derived property portfolio. The risk model produced a 50-yr return level of loss of between 0.025% and 0.056% of the total insured value of the portfolio.

  12. European extra-tropical storm damage risk from a multi-model ensemble of dynamically-downscaled global climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. R. Haylock

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Uncertainty in the return levels of insured loss from European wind storms was quantified using storms derived from twenty-two 25 km regional climate model runs driven by either the ERA40 reanalyses or one of four coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models. Storms were identified using a model-dependent storm severity index based on daily maximum 10 m wind speed. The wind speed from each model was calibrated to a set of 7 km historical storm wind fields using the 70 storms with the highest severity index in the period 1961–2000, employing a two stage calibration methodology. First, the 25 km daily maximum wind speed was downscaled to the 7 km historical model grid using the 7 km surface roughness length and orography, also adopting an empirical gust parameterisation. Secondly, downscaled wind gusts were statistically scaled to the historical storms to match the geographically-dependent cumulative distribution function of wind gust speed.

    The calibrated wind fields were run through an operational catastrophe reinsurance risk model to determine the return level of loss to a European population density-derived property portfolio. The risk model produced a 50-yr return level of loss of between 0.025% and 0.056% of the total insured value of the portfolio.

  13. Our changing climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kandel, R.

    1990-01-01

    The author presents an overview of the changing climate. Attention is focused on the following: meteorology; weather; climate anomalies; changes in atmospheric composition and global warming; ozone; mathematical models; and climate and politics. In its conclusion, it asks researchers to stay out of a game in which, ultimately, neither science nor politics stands to gain anything

  14. Climatic Change. Human Influence?

    OpenAIRE

    Gonçalves, Dionísio; Leite, Solange; Ribeiro, A.C.; Figueiredo, Tomás de

    2016-01-01

    We begin by presenting the functioning of the Climate System and the variety of climates that occurs on the surface of the globe. We analyze climate change based on the sun's orbital parameters and other causes, focusing on the current interglacial period and the influence it had on the development of human societies. The following text looks on developing of the climate of the last 1000 years, with considerations about the warm medieval climate, the little ice age, the recovery...

  15. Climate change 101 : understanding and responding to global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    To inform the climate change dialogue, the Pew Center on Global Climate Change and the Pew Center on the States have developed a series of brief reports entitled Climate Change 101: Understanding and Responding to Global Climate Change. These reports...

  16. The impact of climate change on tourism in Germany, the UK and Ireland: a simulation study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hamilton, Jacqueline; Tol, Richard

    2007-01-01

    We downscale the results of a global tourism simulation model at a national resolution to a regional resolution. We use this to investigate the impact of climate change on the regions of Germany, Ireland and the UK. Because of climate change, tourists from all three countries would spend more

  17. Improve projections of changes in southern African summer rainfall through comprehensive multi-timescale empirical statistical downscaling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dieppois, B.; Pohl, B.; Eden, J.; Crétat, J.; Rouault, M.; Keenlyside, N.; New, M. G.

    2017-12-01

    The water management community has hitherto neglected or underestimated many of the uncertainties in climate impact scenarios, in particular, uncertainties associated with decadal climate variability. Uncertainty in the state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) is time-scale-dependant, e.g. stronger at decadal than at interannual timescales, in response to the different parameterizations and to internal climate variability. In addition, non-stationarity in statistical downscaling is widely recognized as a key problem, in which time-scale dependency of predictors plays an important role. As with global climate modelling, therefore, the selection of downscaling methods must proceed with caution to avoid unintended consequences of over-correcting the noise in GCMs (e.g. interpreting internal climate variability as a model bias). GCM outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) have therefore first been selected based on their ability to reproduce southern African summer rainfall variability and their teleconnections with Pacific sea-surface temperature across the dominant timescales. In observations, southern African summer rainfall has recently been shown to exhibit significant periodicities at the interannual timescale (2-8 years), quasi-decadal (8-13 years) and inter-decadal (15-28 years) timescales, which can be interpret as the signature of ENSO, the IPO, and the PDO over the region. Most of CMIP5 GCMs underestimate southern African summer rainfall variability and their teleconnections with Pacific SSTs at these three timescales. In addition, according to a more in-depth analysis of historical and pi-control runs, this bias is might result from internal climate variability in some of the CMIP5 GCMs, suggesting potential for bias-corrected prediction based empirical statistical downscaling. A multi-timescale regression based downscaling procedure, which determines the predictors across the different timescales, has thus been used to

  18. Aspect of ECMWF downscaled Regional Climate Modeling in simulating Indian summer monsoon rainfall and dependencies on lateral boundary conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghosh, Soumik; Bhatla, R.; Mall, R. K.; Srivastava, Prashant K.; Sahai, A. K.

    2018-03-01

    Climate model faces considerable difficulties in simulating the rainfall characteristics of southwest summer monsoon. In this study, the dynamical downscaling of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast's (ECMWF's) ERA-Interim (EIN15) has been utilized for the simulation of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) through the Regional Climate Model version 4.3 (RegCM-4.3) over the South Asia Co-Ordinated Regional Climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) domain. The complexities of model simulation over a particular terrain are generally influenced by factors such as complex topography, coastal boundary, and lack of unbiased initial and lateral boundary conditions. In order to overcome some of these limitations, the RegCM-4.3 is employed for simulating the rainfall characteristics over the complex topographical conditions. For reliable rainfall simulation, implementations of numerous lower boundary conditions are forced in the RegCM-4.3 with specific horizontal grid resolution of 50 km over South Asia CORDEX domain. The analysis is considered for 30 years of climatological simulation of rainfall, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), mean sea level pressure (MSLP), and wind with different vertical levels over the specified region. The dependency of model simulation with the forcing of EIN15 initial and lateral boundary conditions is used to understand the impact of simulated rainfall characteristics during different phases of summer monsoon. The results obtained from this study are used to evaluate the activity of initial conditions of zonal wind circulation speed, which causes an increase in the uncertainty of regional model output over the region under investigation. Further, the results showed that the EIN15 zonal wind circulation lacks sufficient speed over the specified region in a particular time, which was carried forward by the RegCM output and leads to a disrupted regional simulation in the climate model.

  19. Assessment of the Performance of Three Dynamical Climate Downscaling Methods Using Different Land Surface Information over China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peng Liu

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to assess the performance of different dynamical downscaling methods using updated land surface information. Particular attention is given to obtaining high-resolution climate information over China by the combination of an appropriate dynamical downscaling method and updated land surface information. Two group experiments using two land surface datasets are performed, including default Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF land surface data (OLD and accurate dynamically accordant MODIS data (NEW. Each group consists of three types of experiments for the summer of 2014, including traditional continuous integration (CT, spectral nudging (SN, and re-initialization (Re experiments. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model is used to dynamically downscale ERA-Interim (reanalysis of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast, ECMWF data with a grid spacing of 30 km over China. The simulations are evaluated via comparison with observed conventional meteorological variables, showing that the CT method, which notably overestimates 2 m temperature and underestimates 2 m relative humidity across China, performs the worst; the SN and Re runs outperform the CT method, and the Re shows the smallest RMSE (root means square error. A comparison of observed and simulated precipitation shows that the SN simulation is closest to the observed data, while the CT and Re simulations overestimate precipitation south of the Yangtze River. Compared with the OLD group, the RMSE values of temperature and relative humidity are significantly improved in CT and SN, and there is smaller improved in Re. However, obvious improvements in precipitation are not evident.

  20. Downscaling drivers of global environmental change: Enabling use of global SRES scenarios at the national and grid levels

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Vuuren, D.P.; Lucas, P.L.; Hilderink, H.

    2007-01-01

    Global environmental change scenarios typically distinguish between about 10–20 global regions. However, various studies need scenario information at a higher level of spatial detail. This paper presents a set of algorithms that aim to fill this gap by providing downscaled scenario data for

  1. Regional climate models downscaling in the Alpine area with multimodel superensemble

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Cane

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The climatic scenarios show a strong signal of warming in the Alpine area already for the mid-XXI century. The climate simulations, however, even when obtained with regional climate models (RCMs, are affected by strong errors when compared with observations, due both to their difficulties in representing the complex orography of the Alps and to limitations in their physical parametrization. Therefore, the aim of this work is to reduce these model biases by using a specific post processing statistic technique, in order to obtain a more suitable projection of climate change scenarios in the Alpine area. For our purposes we used a selection of regional climate models (RCMs runs which were developed in the framework of the ENSEMBLES project. They were carefully chosen with the aim to maximise the variety of leading global climate models and of the RCMs themselves, calculated on the SRES scenario A1B. The reference observations for the greater Alpine area were extracted from the European dataset E-OBS (produced by the ENSEMBLES project, which have an available resolution of 25 km. For the study area of Piedmont daily temperature and precipitation observations (covering the period from 1957 to the present were carefully gridded on a 14 km grid over Piedmont region through the use of an optimal interpolation technique. Hence, we applied the multimodel superensemble technique to temperature fields, reducing the high biases of RCMs temperature field compared to observations in the control period. We also proposed the application of a brand new probabilistic multimodel superensemble dressing technique, already applied to weather forecast models successfully, to RCMS: the aim was to estimate precipitation fields, with careful description of precipitation probability density functions conditioned to the model outputs. This technique allowed for reducing the strong precipitation overestimation, arising from the use of RCMs, over the Alpine chain and to

  2. Regional climate models downscaling in the Alpine area with multimodel superensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cane, D.; Barbarino, S.; Renier, L. A.; Ronchi, C.

    2013-05-01

    The climatic scenarios show a strong signal of warming in the Alpine area already for the mid-XXI century. The climate simulations, however, even when obtained with regional climate models (RCMs), are affected by strong errors when compared with observations, due both to their difficulties in representing the complex orography of the Alps and to limitations in their physical parametrization. Therefore, the aim of this work is to reduce these model biases by using a specific post processing statistic technique, in order to obtain a more suitable projection of climate change scenarios in the Alpine area. For our purposes we used a selection of regional climate models (RCMs) runs which were developed in the framework of the ENSEMBLES project. They were carefully chosen with the aim to maximise the variety of leading global climate models and of the RCMs themselves, calculated on the SRES scenario A1B. The reference observations for the greater Alpine area were extracted from the European dataset E-OBS (produced by the ENSEMBLES project), which have an available resolution of 25 km. For the study area of Piedmont daily temperature and precipitation observations (covering the period from 1957 to the present) were carefully gridded on a 14 km grid over Piedmont region through the use of an optimal interpolation technique. Hence, we applied the multimodel superensemble technique to temperature fields, reducing the high biases of RCMs temperature field compared to observations in the control period. We also proposed the application of a brand new probabilistic multimodel superensemble dressing technique, already applied to weather forecast models successfully, to RCMS: the aim was to estimate precipitation fields, with careful description of precipitation probability density functions conditioned to the model outputs. This technique allowed for reducing the strong precipitation overestimation, arising from the use of RCMs, over the Alpine chain and to reproduce well the

  3. Global vs climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watson, H.L.; Bach, M.C.; Goklany, I.M.

    1991-01-01

    The various agents of global change that will affect the state of natural resources 50-100 years from now are discussed. These include economic and population growth, technological progress, and climatic change. The importance of climatic change lies in its effects on natural resources and on human activities that depend on those resources. Other factors affecting those resources include the demand on those resources from an increasing population and from a growing economy, and a more efficient use of those resources that comes from technological changes and from the consequences of economic growth itself. It is shown that there is a considerable ability to adapt to climatic change, since humans already have an intrinsic ability to adapt to the wide variations in climates that already exist and since technological developments can make it easier to cope with climatic variability. It appears that agents other than climatic change are more significant to the future state of natural resources than climatic change. Criteria for selecting options for addressing climatic change are outlined. Technological change and economic growth are seen to be key response options, since the vulnerability to climatic change depends on economic resources and technological progress. Specific options to stimulate sustainable economic growth and technological progress are listed. 16 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs

  4. Climate change: against despair

    OpenAIRE

    McKinnon, Catriona

    2014-01-01

    In the face of accelerating climate change and the parlous state of its politics, despair is tempting. This paper analyses two manifestations of despair about climate change related to (1) the inefficacy of personal emissions reductions, and (2) the inability to make a difference to climate change through personal emissions reductions. On the back of an analysis of despair as a loss of hope, the paper argues that the judgements grounding each form of despair are unsound. The paper concludes w...

  5. The impact of climate change on hydro-electricity generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Musy, A.; Music, B.; Roy, R.

    2008-01-01

    Hydropower is the leading source of electrical production in many countries. It is a clean and renewable source and certainly will continue to play an important role in the future energy supply. However, the effects of climate change on this valuable resource remain questionable. In order to identify the potential initiatives that the hydropower industry may undertake, it is important to determine the current state of knowledge of the impacts of climate change on hydrological variables at regional and local scales. Usually, the following steps are taken. First, general circulation models (GCMs) are used to simulate future climate under assumed greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Then, different techniques (statistical downscaling/regional climate models) are applied to downscale the GCM outputs to the appropriate scales of hydrological models. Finally, hydrologic models are employed to simulate the effects of climate change at regional and local scales. Outputs from these models serve as inputs to water management models that give more details about hydropower production. In the present study, realized by OURANOS upon the request of CEATI, a critical review of the methods used to determine impact of climate change on water resources and hydropower generation is carried out. The major results from recent studies worldwide are reported and future scientific actions to better understand climate change impacts on the hydrological regime are identified. The study is expected to provide direction for the hydropower industry to mitigate the impacts of climate change. (author)

  6. Chatham Islands Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mullan, B.; Salinger, J.; Thompson, C.; Ramsay, D.; Wild, M.

    2005-06-01

    This brief report provides guidance on climate change specific to the Chatham Islands, to complement the information recently produced for local government by the Ministry for the Environment in 'Climate Change Effects and Impacts Assessment: A guidance manual for Local Government in New Zealand' and 'Coastal Hazards and Climate Change: A guidance manual for Local Government in New Zealand'. These previous reports contain a lot of generic information on climate change, and how to assess associated risks, that is relevant to the Chatham Islands Council.

  7. Climate Change Impact Assessment of Hydro-Climate in Southern Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ercan, A.; Ishida, K.; Kavvas, M. L.; Chen, Z. R.; Jang, S.; Amin, M. Z. M.; Shaaban, A. J.

    2017-12-01

    Impacts of climate change on the hydroclimate of the coastal region in the south of Peninsular Malaysia in the 21st century was assessed by means of a regional climate model utilizing an ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations. Coarse resolution Global Climate Models' future projections covering four emission scenarios based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) datasets were dynamically downscaled to 6 km resolution over the study area. The analyses were made in terms of rainfall, air temperature, evapotranporation, and soil water storage.

  8. Development and application of downscaled hydroclimatic predictor variables for use in climate vulnerability and assessment studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorne, James; Boynton, Ryan; Flint, Lorraine; Flint, Alan; N'goc Le, Thuy

    2012-01-01

    This paper outlines the production of 270-meter grid-scale maps for 14 climate and derivative hydrologic variables for a region that encompasses the State of California and all the streams that flow into it. The paper describes the Basin Characterization Model (BCM), a map-based, mechanistic model used to process the hydrological variables. Three historic and three future time periods of 30 years (1911–1940, 1941–1970, 1971–2000, 2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099) were developed that summarize 180 years of monthly historic and future climate values. These comprise a standardized set of fine-scale climate data that were shared with 14 research groups, including the U.S. National Park Service and several University of California groups as part of this project. We present three analyses done with the outputs from the Basin Characterization Model: trends in hydrologic variables over baseline, the most recent 30-year period; a calibration and validation effort that uses measured discharge values from 139 streamgages and compares those to Basin Characterization Model-derived projections of discharge for the same basins; and an assessment of the trends of specific hydrological variables that links historical trend to projected future change under four future climate projections. Overall, increases in potential evapotranspiration dominate other influences in future hydrologic cycles. Increased potential evapotranspiration drives decreasing runoff even under forecasts with increased precipitation, and drives increased climatic water deficit, which may lead to conversion of dominant vegetation types across large parts of the study region as well as have implications for rain-fed agriculture. The potential evapotranspiration is driven by air temperatures, and the Basin Characterization Model permits it to be integrated with a water balance model that can be derived for landscapes and summarized by watershed. These results show the utility of using a process

  9. Asking about climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jonas Østergaard; D'haen, Sarah Ann Lise

    2014-01-01

    and the number and types of interviews conducted are, for example, not always clear. Information on crucial aspects of qualitative research like researcher positionality, social positions of key informants, the use of field assistants, language issues and post-fieldwork treatment of data is also lacking in many...... with climate change? On the basis of a literature review of all articles published in Global Environmental Change between 2000 and 2012 that deal with human dimensions of climate change using qualitative methods this paper provides some answers but also raises some concerns. The period and length of fieldwork......There is increasing evidence that climate change will strongly affect people across the globe. Likely impacts of and adaptations to climate change are drawing the attention of researchers from many disciplines. In adaptation research focus is often on perceptions of climate change...

  10. Uncertainties and climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Gier, A.M.; Opschoor, J.B.; Van de Donk, W.B.H.J.; Hooimeijer, P.; Jepma, J.; Lelieveld, J.; Oerlemans, J.; Petersen, A.

    2008-01-01

    Which processes in the climate system are misunderstood? How are scientists dealing with uncertainty about climate change? What will be done with the conclusions of the recently published synthesis report of the IPCC? These and other questions were answered during the meeting 'Uncertainties and climate change' that was held on Monday 26 November 2007 at the KNAW in Amsterdam. This report is a compilation of all the presentations and provides some conclusions resulting from the discussions during this meeting. [mk] [nl

  11. Wine and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Ashenfelter, Orley; Storchmann, Karl

    2014-01-01

    In this article we provide an overview of the extensive literature on the impact of weather and climate on grapes and wine with the goal of describing how climate change is likely to affect their production. We start by discussing the physical impact of weather on vine phenology, berry composition and yields, and then survey the economic literature measuring the effects of temperature on wine quality, prices, costs and profits and how climate change will affect these. We also describe what ha...

  12. Climate and Global Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duplessy, J.C.; Pons, A.; Fantechi, R.

    1991-01-01

    The present volume contains the lessons delivered at the course held in Arles, France, on the subject Climate and Global Change: natural variability of the geosphere and biosphere systems, biogeochemical cycles and their perturbation by human activities, monitoring and forecasting global changes (satellite observations, modelling,...). Short presentations of students' own research activities are also proposed (climatic fluctuation in the Mediterranean area, climate/vegetation relations, etc.)

  13. Climate Change and Transportation

    OpenAIRE

    Yevdokimov, Yuri

    2010-01-01

    As stated at the beginning of this chapter, the relationship between transportation and climate is two-directional. Based on our statistical analysis performed for Canada, we can make some general conclusions about this relationship. On the one hand, transportation is one of the largest contributors to GHG emissions which, in turn, cause various changes in climate. On the other hand, these climate changes negatively affect transportation in terms of its infrastructure and operations. Therefor...

  14. Choice of baseline climate data impacts projected species' responses to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, David J; Hartley, Andrew J; Butchart, Stuart H M; Willis, Stephen G

    2016-07-01

    Climate data created from historic climate observations are integral to most assessments of potential climate change impacts, and frequently comprise the baseline period used to infer species-climate relationships. They are often also central to downscaling coarse resolution climate simulations from General Circulation Models (GCMs) to project future climate scenarios at ecologically relevant spatial scales. Uncertainty in these baseline data can be large, particularly where weather observations are sparse and climate dynamics are complex (e.g. over mountainous or coastal regions). Yet, importantly, this uncertainty is almost universally overlooked when assessing potential responses of species to climate change. Here, we assessed the importance of historic baseline climate uncertainty for projections of species' responses to future climate change. We built species distribution models (SDMs) for 895 African bird species of conservation concern, using six different climate baselines. We projected these models to two future periods (2040-2069, 2070-2099), using downscaled climate projections, and calculated species turnover and changes in species-specific climate suitability. We found that the choice of baseline climate data constituted an important source of uncertainty in projections of both species turnover and species-specific climate suitability, often comparable with, or more important than, uncertainty arising from the choice of GCM. Importantly, the relative contribution of these factors to projection uncertainty varied spatially. Moreover, when projecting SDMs to sites of biodiversity importance (Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas), these uncertainties altered site-level impacts, which could affect conservation prioritization. Our results highlight that projections of species' responses to climate change are sensitive to uncertainty in the baseline climatology. We recommend that this should be considered routinely in such analyses. © 2016 John Wiley

  15. Designing ecological climate change impact assessments to reflect key climatic drivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sofaer, Helen R; Barsugli, Joseph J; Jarnevich, Catherine S; Abatzoglou, John T; Talbert, Marian K; Miller, Brian W; Morisette, Jeffrey T

    2017-07-01

    Identifying the climatic drivers of an ecological system is a key step in assessing its vulnerability to climate change. The climatic dimensions to which a species or system is most sensitive - such as means or extremes - can guide methodological decisions for projections of ecological impacts and vulnerabilities. However, scientific workflows for combining climate projections with ecological models have received little explicit attention. We review Global Climate Model (GCM) performance along different dimensions of change and compare frameworks for integrating GCM output into ecological models. In systems sensitive to climatological means, it is straightforward to base ecological impact assessments on mean projected changes from several GCMs. Ecological systems sensitive to climatic extremes may benefit from what we term the 'model space' approach: a comparison of ecological projections based on simulated climate from historical and future time periods. This approach leverages the experimental framework used in climate modeling, in which historical climate simulations serve as controls for future projections. Moreover, it can capture projected changes in the intensity and frequency of climatic extremes, rather than assuming that future means will determine future extremes. Given the recent emphasis on the ecological impacts of climatic extremes, the strategies we describe will be applicable across species and systems. We also highlight practical considerations for the selection of climate models and data products, emphasizing that the spatial resolution of the climate change signal is generally coarser than the grid cell size of downscaled climate model output. Our review illustrates how an understanding of how climate model outputs are derived and downscaled can improve the selection and application of climatic data used in ecological modeling. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. The increased atmospheric greenhouse effect and regional climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Groenaas, S. [Bergen Univ. (Norway)

    1996-03-01

    This paper was read at the workshop ``The Norwegian Climate and Ozone Research Programme`` held on 11-12 March 1996. The main information for predicting future climate changes comes from integrating coupled climate models of the atmosphere, ocean and cryosphere. Regional climate change may be studied from the global integrations, however, resolution is coarse because of insufficient computer power. Attempts are being made to get more regional details out of the global integrations by ``downscaling`` the latter. This can be done in two ways. Firstly, limited area models with high resolution are applied, driven by the global results as boundary values. Secondly, statistical relationships have been found between observed meteorological parameters, like temperature and precipitation, and analyzed large scale gridded fields. The derived relations are then used on similar data from climate runs to give local interpretations. A review is given of literature on recent observations of climate variations and on predicted regional climate change. 18 refs., 4 figs.

  17. Synopsis of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angela Jardine; Jonathan Long

    2014-01-01

    Changes in climate can interact with other stressors to transform ecosystems and alter the services those ecosystems provide. This synopsis presents themes that run through the synthesis report regarding the impacts of a changing climate on the forests and waters of the synthesis area as well as long-term, broad-scale, science-based strategies to promote system...

  18. Financing climate change adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bouwer, L.M.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.

    2006-01-01

    This paper examines the topic of financing adaptation in future climate change policies. A major question is whether adaptation in developing countries should be financed under the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), or whether funding should come from other sources.

  19. Probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monier, Erwan; Sokolov, Andrei; Schlosser, Adam; Scott, Jeffery; Gao, Xiang

    2013-12-01

    We present probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model that couples an Earth system model of intermediate complexity with a two-dimensional zonal-mean atmosphere to a human activity model. Regional climate change is obtained by two downscaling methods: a dynamical downscaling, where the IGSM is linked to a three-dimensional atmospheric model, and a statistical downscaling, where a pattern scaling algorithm uses climate change patterns from 17 climate models. This framework allows for four major sources of uncertainty in future projections of regional climate change to be accounted for: emissions projections, climate system parameters (climate sensitivity, strength of aerosol forcing and ocean heat uptake rate), natural variability, and structural uncertainty. The results show that the choice of climate policy and the climate parameters are the largest drivers of uncertainty. We also find that different initial conditions lead to differences in patterns of change as large as when using different climate models. Finally, this analysis reveals the wide range of possible climate change over Northern Eurasia, emphasizing the need to consider these sources of uncertainty when modeling climate impacts over Northern Eurasia.

  20. Probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monier, Erwan; Sokolov, Andrei; Schlosser, Adam; Scott, Jeffery; Gao, Xiang

    2013-01-01

    We present probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model that couples an Earth system model of intermediate complexity with a two-dimensional zonal-mean atmosphere to a human activity model. Regional climate change is obtained by two downscaling methods: a dynamical downscaling, where the IGSM is linked to a three-dimensional atmospheric model, and a statistical downscaling, where a pattern scaling algorithm uses climate change patterns from 17 climate models. This framework allows for four major sources of uncertainty in future projections of regional climate change to be accounted for: emissions projections, climate system parameters (climate sensitivity, strength of aerosol forcing and ocean heat uptake rate), natural variability, and structural uncertainty. The results show that the choice of climate policy and the climate parameters are the largest drivers of uncertainty. We also find that different initial conditions lead to differences in patterns of change as large as when using different climate models. Finally, this analysis reveals the wide range of possible climate change over Northern Eurasia, emphasizing the need to consider these sources of uncertainty when modeling climate impacts over Northern Eurasia. (letter)

  1. Multi-year climate variability in the Southwestern United States within a context of a dynamically downscaled twentieth century reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrillo, Carlos M.; Castro, Christopher L.; Chang, Hsin-I.; Luong, Thang M.

    2017-12-01

    This investigation evaluates whether there is coherency in warm and cool season precipitation at the low-frequency scale that may be responsible for multi-year droughts in the US Southwest. This low-frequency climate variability at the decadal scale and longer is studied within the context of a twentieth-century reanalysis (20CR) and its dynamically-downscaled version (DD-20CR). A spectral domain matrix methods technique (Multiple-Taper-Method Singular Value Decomposition) is applied to these datasets to identify statistically significant spatiotemporal precipitation patterns for the cool (November-April) and warm (July-August) seasons. The low-frequency variability in the 20CR is evaluated by exploring global to continental-scale spatiotemporal variability in moisture flux convergence (MFC) to the occurrence of multiyear droughts and pluvials in Central America, as this region has a demonstrated anti-phase relationship in low-frequency climate variability with northern Mexico and the southwestern US By using the MFC in lieu of precipitation, this study reveals that the 20CR is able to resolve well the low-frequency, multiyear climate variability. In the context of the DD-20CR, multiyear droughts and pluvials in the southwestern US (in the early twentieth century) are significantly related to this low-frequency climate variability. The precipitation anomalies at these low-frequency timescales are in phase between the cool and warm seasons, consistent with the concept of dual-season drought as has been suggested in tree ring studies.

  2. Climate for change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Newell, P.

    2000-01-01

    Climate for Change: Non-State Actors and the Global Politics of the Greenhouse provides a challenging explanation of the forces that have shaped the international global warming debate. Unlike existing books on the politics of climate change, this book concentrates on how non-stage actors, such as scientific, environmental and industry groups, as opposed to governmental organisations, affect political outcomes in global fora on climate change. It also provides insights in to the role of the media in influencing the agenda. The book draws on a range of analytical approaches to assess and explain the influence of these non-governmental organisations in the course of global climate change politics. The book will be of interest to all researchers and policy-makers associated with climate change, and will be used on university courses in international relations, politics and environmental studies. (Author)

  3. The climate is changing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alfsen, Knut H.

    2001-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has finalized its Third Assessment Report. Among its conclusions is that we must expect continued changes in our climate, despite our efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Planning for and adapting to climate change are therefore necessary. As a starting point, CICERO has written this short note on expected impacts in Norway. The main conclusions are that (1) Adaptation to climate change is necessary (2) Substantial impacts are expected for several important sectors in Norway (3) The local and central authorities should now consider and start planning for adaptation measures. (4) There is still a need for more knowledge about potential impacts of climate change in Norway. (author)

  4. Trade and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tamiotti, L.; Teh, R.; Kulacoglu, V. (World Trade Organization (WTO), Geneva (Switzerland)); Olhoff, A.; Simmons, B.; Abaza, H. (United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) (Denmark))

    2009-06-15

    The Report aims to improve understanding about the linkages between trade and climate change. It shows that trade intersects with climate change in a multitude of ways. For example, governments may introduce a variety of policies, such as regulatory measures and economic incentives, to address climate change. This complex web of measures may have an impact on international trade and the multilateral trading system. The Report begins with a summary of the current state of scientific knowledge on climate change and on the options available for responding to the challenge of climate change. The scientific review is followed by a part on the economic aspects of the link between trade and climate change, and these two parts set the context for the subsequent parts of the Report, which looks at the policies introduced at both the international and national level to address climate change. The part on international policy responses to climate change describes multilateral efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt to the effects of climate change, and also discusses the role of the current trade and environment negotiations in promoting trade in technologies that aim to mitigate climate change. The final part of the Report gives an overview of a range of national policies and measures that have been used in a number of countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to increase energy efficiency. It presents key features in the design and implementation of these policies, in order to draw a clearer picture of their overall effect and potential impact on environmental protection, sustainable development and trade. It also gives, where appropriate, an overview of the WTO rules that may be relevant to such measures. (author)

  5. Struggle against climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    This document first proposes a presentation of the cross-cutting policy defined for the struggle against climate change. It notably presents its various programs. It describes the implemented strategy which aims at reducing on a short term greenhouse gas emissions with the available technologies, at making the climate challenge a driver for economic competitiveness, at developing the knowledge on climatic change and at preparing the necessary adaptation measures, and at stating on the international scene the French commitment and its dynamic role in front of the climate challenge

  6. Climate change impact assessment on urban rainfall extremes and urban drainage: Methods and shortcomings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willems, P.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Olsson, J.

    2012-01-01

    Cities are becoming increasingly vulnerable to flooding because of rapid urbanization, installation of complex infrastructure, and changes in the precipitation patterns caused by anthropogenic climate change. The present paper provides a critical review of the current state-of-the-art methods...... for assessing the impacts of climate change on precipitation at the urban catchment scale. Downscaling of results from global circulation models or regional climate models to urban catchment scales are needed because these models are not able to describe accurately the rainfall process at suitable high temporal...... and spatial resolution for urban drainage studies. The downscaled rainfall results are however highly uncertain, depending on the models and downscaling methods considered. This uncertainty becomes more challenging for rainfall extremes since the properties of these extremes do not automatically reflect those...

  7. Hydrological response to dynamical downscaling of climate model outputs: A case study for western and eastern snowmelt-dominated Canada catchments

    OpenAIRE

    Magali Troin; Daniel Caya; Juan Alberto Velázquez; François Brissette

    2015-01-01

    Study region: An analysis of hydrological response to a dynamically downscaled multi-member multi-model global climate model (GCM) ensemble of simulations based on the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) is presented for three snowmelt-dominated basins in Canada. The basins are situated in the western mountainous (British Columbia) and eastern level (Quebec) regions in Canada, providing comprehensive experiments to validate the CRCM over various topographic features. Study focus: The ev...

  8. Communities under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nogues, David Bravo; Rahbek, Carsten

    2011-01-01

    The distribution of species on Earth and the interactions among them are tightly linked to historical and contemporary climate, so that global climate change will transform the world in which we live. Biological models can now credibly link recent decadal trends in field data to climate change......, but predicting future impacts on biological communities is a major challenge. Attempts to move beyond general macroecological predictions of climate change impact on one hand, and observations from specific, local-scale cases, small-scale experiments, or studies of a few species on the other, raise a plethora...... of unanswered questions. On page 1124 of this issue, Harley (1) reports results that cast new light on how biodiversity, across different trophic levels, responds to climate change....

  9. Climate Projection Data base for Roads - CliPDaR: Design a guideline for a transnational database of downscaled climate projection data for road impact models - within the Conference's of European Directors of Roads (CEDR) TRANSNATIONAL ROAD RESEARCH PROG

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matulla, Christoph; Namyslo, Joachim; Fuchs, Tobias; Türk, Konrad

    2013-04-01

    The European road sector is vulnerable to extreme weather phenomena, which can cause large socio-economic losses. Almost every year there occur several weather triggered events (like heavy precipitation, floods, landslides, high winds, snow and ice, heat or cold waves, etc.), that disrupt transportation, knock out power lines, cut off populated regions from the outside and so on. So, in order to avoid imbalances in the supply of vital goods to people as well as to prevent negative impacts on health and life of people travelling by car it is essential to know present and future threats to roads. Climate change might increase future threats to roads. CliPDaR focuses on parts of the European road network and contributes, based on the current body of knowledge, to the establishment of guidelines helping to decide which methods and scenarios to apply for the estimation of future climate change based challenges in the field of road maintenance. Based on regional scale climate change projections specific road-impact models are applied in order to support protection measures. In recent years, it has been recognised that it is essential to assess the uncertainty and reliability of given climate projections by using ensemble approaches and downscaling methods. A huge amount of scientific work has been done to evaluate these approaches with regard to reliability and usefulness for investigations on possible impacts of climate changes. CliPDaR is going to collect the existing approaches and methodologies in European countries, discuss their differences and - in close cooperation with the road owners - develops a common line on future applications of climate projection data to road impact models. As such, the project will focus on reviewing and assessing existing regional climate change projections regarding transnational highway transport needs. The final project report will include recommendations how the findings of CliPDaR may support the decision processes of European

  10. Application of a hybrid method for downscaling of the global climate model fields for evaluation of future surface mass balance of mountain glaciers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morozova, Polina; Rybak, Oleg; Kaminskaia, Mariia

    2017-04-01

    Mountain glaciers in the Caucasus have been degrading during the last century. During this time period they lost approximately one-third in area and half of their volume. Prediction of their evolution in changing climate is crucial for the local economy because hydrological regime in the territory north to the Main Caucasus Chain is mainly driven by glacier run-off. For future projections of glaciers' surface mass balance (SMB) we apply a hybrid method of downscaling of GCM-generated meteorological fields from the global scale to the characteristic spatial resolution normally used for modeling of a single mountain glacier SMB. A method consists of two stages. On the first, dynamical stage, we use the results of calculations of regional climate model (RCM) HadRM3P for the Black Sea-Caspian region with a spatial resolution of approximately 25 km. Initial and boundary conditions for HadRM3P are provided by an AO GCM INMCM developed in the Institute of Numerical Mathematics (Moscow, Russia). Calculations were carried out for two time slices: the present (reference) climate (1971-2000 years) and climate in the late 21st century (2071-2100 years) according to scenario of greenhouse gas emissions RCP 8.5. On the second stage of downscaling, further regionalization is achieved by projecting of RCM-generated data to the high-resolution (25 m) digital elevation models in a domain enclosing target glaciers (Marukh in the Western Caucasus and Djankuat in the Central Caucasus, both being typical valley glaciers). Elevation gradient of surface air temperature and precipitation were derived from the model data. Further, results were corrected using data of observations. The incoming shortwave radiation is calculated separately, taking into account slopes, aspects and shade effect. In the end of the current century expected air temperature growth in the Central and Western Caucasus is about 5-6 °C (summer), and 2-3 °C (winter). Reduction in annual precipitation is not

  11. Climate downscaling over South America for 1971-2000: application in SMAP rainfall-runoff model for Grande River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Silva, Felipe das Neves Roque; Alves, José Luis Drummond; Cataldi, Marcio

    2018-03-01

    This paper aims to validate inflow simulations concerning the present-day climate at Água Vermelha Hydroelectric Plant (AVHP—located on the Grande River Basin) based on the Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure (SMAP) hydrological model. In order to provide rainfall data to the SMAP model, the RegCM regional climate model was also used working with boundary conditions from the MIROC model. Initially, present-day climate simulation performed by RegCM model was analyzed. It was found that, in terms of rainfall, the model was able to simulate the main patterns observed over South America. A bias correction technique was also used and it was essential to reduce mistakes related to rainfall simulation. Comparison between rainfall simulations from RegCM and MIROC showed improvements when the dynamical downscaling was performed. Then, SMAP, a rainfall-runoff hydrological model, was used to simulate inflows at Água Vermelha Hydroelectric Plant. After calibration with observed rainfall, SMAP simulations were evaluated in two different periods from the one used in calibration. During calibration, SMAP captures the inflow variability observed at AVHP. During validation periods, the hydrological model obtained better results and statistics with observed rainfall. However, in spite of some discrepancies, the use of simulated rainfall without bias correction captured the interannual flow variability. However, the use of bias removal in the simulated rainfall performed by RegCM brought significant improvements to the simulation of natural inflows performed by SMAP. Not only the curve of simulated inflow became more similar to the observed inflow, but also the statistics improved their values. Improvements were also noticed in the inflow simulation when the rainfall was provided by the regional climate model compared to the global model. In general, results obtained so far prove that there was an added value in rainfall when regional climate model was compared to global climate

  12. Climate change: wildfire impact

    OpenAIRE

    Dautbasic, Mirza; Crabtree, J.; Ioras, Florin; Abrudan, Ioan Vasile; Ratnasingam, Jega

    2011-01-01

    Every ecosystem is a complex organization of carefully mixed life forms; a dynamic and particularly sensible system. Consequently, their progressive decline may accelerate climate change and vice versa, influencing flora and fauna composition and distribution, resulting in the loss of biodiversity. Climate changes effects are the principal topics of this volume. Written by internationally renowned contributors, Biodiversity loss in a changing planet offers attractive study cases focused on bi...

  13. Witnesses of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2015-11-01

    After having evoked the process of climate change, the effect of greenhouse gas emissions, the evolution of average temperatures in France since 1900, and indicated the various interactions and impacts of climate change regarding air quality, water resources, food supply, degradation and loss of biodiversity, deforestation, desertification, this publication, while quoting various testimonies (from a mountain refuge guardian, a wine maker, a guide in La Reunion, an IFREMER bio-statistician engineer, and a representative of health professionals), describes the various noticed impacts of climate change on the environment in mountain chains, on agriculture, on sea level rise, on overseas biodiversity, and on health

  14. Biodiversity and Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Onyango, J.C.O.; Ojoo-Massawa, E.; Abira, M.A.

    1997-01-01

    Biological diversity or biodiversity is crucial for ecological stability including regulation of climate change, recreational and medicinal use; and scientific advancement. Kenya like other developing countries, especially, those in Sub-Saharan Africa, will continue to depend greatly on her biodiversity for present and future development. This important resource must, therefore be conserved. This chapter presents an overview of Kenya's biodiversity; its importance and initiatives being undertaken for its conservation; and in detail, explores issues of climate change and biodiversity, concentrating on impacts of climate change

  15. Technology and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morrison, R.; Layzedl, D.; McLean, G.

    2002-01-01

    This paper was the major one of the opening plenary session at the Climate Change 2 conference. The paper provides a context for assessing the needs for technologies to reduce the concentration of GHG in the atmosphere. It looks at sources, sinks and trends for GHG, in the world at large and in Canada, and at efforts to develop new technologies to achieve the goals of climate change policy. The paper focusses on transport, electricity and biomass as sectors of interest, both because of their potential for contributing to climate change policy goals within Canada, and also because of research interests

  16. Hydrologic impacts of climate change on the Nile River basin: Implications of the 2007 IPCC climate scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beyene, T.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Kabat, P.

    2010-01-01

    We assess the potential impacts of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Nile River basin using a macroscale hydrology model. Model inputs are bias corrected and spatially downscaled 21st Century simulations from 11 General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two global emissions

  17. Adapting to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Strzepek, Kenneth; Tarp, Finn

    2011-01-01

    Mozambique, like many African countries, is already highly susceptible to climate variability and extreme weather events. Climate change threatens to heighten this vulnerability. In order to evaluate potential impacts and adaptation options for Mozambique, we develop an integrated modeling...... framework that translates atmospheric changes from general circulation model projections into biophysical outcomes via detailed hydrologic, crop, hydropower and infrastructure models. These sector models simulate a historical baseline and four extreme climate change scenarios. Sector results are then passed...... down to a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, which is used to estimate economy-wide impacts on national welfare, as well as the total cost of damages caused by climate change. Potential damages without changes in policy are significant; our discounted estimates range from US2.3 to US2.3toUS7...

  18. Climate change governance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Knieling, Joerg [HafenCity Univ. Hamburg (Germany). Urban Planning and Regional Development; Leal Filho, Walter (eds.) [HAW Hamburg (Germany). Research and Transfer Centre Applications of Life Science

    2013-07-01

    Climate change is a cause for concern both globally and locally. In order for it to be tackled holistically, its governance is an important topic needing scientific and practical consideration. Climate change governance is an emerging area, and one which is closely related to state and public administrative systems and the behaviour of private actors, including the business sector, as well as the civil society and non-governmental organisations. Questions of climate change governance deal both with mitigation and adaptation whilst at the same time trying to devise effective ways of managing the consequences of these measures across the different sectors. Many books have been produced on general matters related to climate change, such as climate modelling, temperature variations, sea level rise, but, to date, very few publications have addressed the political, economic and social elements of climate change and their links with governance. This book will address this gap. Furthermore, a particular feature of this book is that it not only presents different perspectives on climate change governance, but it also introduces theoretical approaches and brings these together with practical examples which show how main principles may be implemented in practice.

  19. Climate change and wildfires

    Science.gov (United States)

    William J. De Groot; Michael D. Flannigan; Brian J. Stocks

    2013-01-01

    Wildland fire regimes are primarily driven by climate/weather, fuels and people. All of these factors are dynamic and their variable interactions create a mosaic of fire regimes around the world. Climate change will have a substantial impact on future fire regimes in many global regions. Current research suggests a general increase in area burned and fire occurrence...

  20. Chemistry and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernier, Jean-Claude; Brasseur, Guy; Brechet, Yves; Candel, Sebastien; Cazenave, Anny; Courtillot, Vincent; Fontecave, Marc; Garnier, Emmanuel; Goebel, Philippe; Legrand, Jack; Legrand, Michel; Le Treut, Herve; Mauberger, Pascal; Dinh-Audouin, Minh-Thu; Olivier, Daniele; Rigny, Paul; Bigot, Bernard

    2016-01-01

    In its first part, this collective publication addresses the decennial and centuries-old variations of climate: perspectives and implications of climate change for the 21. century, questions remaining about the understanding of climate change from its sources to its modelling, extreme climate variations and societies during the last millennium. The contributions of the second part outline how chemistry is a tool to study climate change: ice chemistry as an archive of our past environment, observations and predictions on sea level rise, relationship between atmosphere chemistry and climate. The third set of contributions discusses the transformation of the energy system for a cleaner atmosphere and the management of the climate risk: the chemical processing of CO_2, actions of chemical companies to support the struggle against climate change, relationship between barrel price and renewable energies, relationship between grid complexity and green energy. The last part outlines the role chemistry can have to be able to do without fossil fuels: chemistry in front of challenges of transformation of the energy system, the use of micro-algae, the use of hydrogen as a vector of energy transition

  1. Olivine and climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schuiling, R.D.

    2012-01-01

    The greenhouse effect, thanks mainly to the water vapor in our atmosphere, has created a livable climate on Earth. Climate change, however, may potentially have dire consequences. It is generally assumed that the rise in CO2 levels in the atmosphere is the main culprit, although several other

  2. THE APPLICATION OF A STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING PROCESS TO DERIVE 21{sup ST} CENTURY RIVER FLOW PREDICTIONS USING A GLOBAL CLIMATE SIMULATION

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Werth, D.; Chen, K. F.

    2013-08-22

    The ability of water managers to maintain adequate supplies in coming decades depends, in part, on future weather conditions, as climate change has the potential to alter river flows from their current values, possibly rendering them unable to meet demand. Reliable climate projections are therefore critical to predicting the future water supply for the United States. These projections cannot be provided solely by global climate models (GCMs), however, as their resolution is too coarse to resolve the small-scale climate changes that can affect hydrology, and hence water supply, at regional to local scales. A process is needed to ‘downscale’ the GCM results to the smaller scales and feed this into a surface hydrology model to help determine the ability of rivers to provide adequate flow to meet future needs. We apply a statistical downscaling to GCM projections of precipitation and temperature through the use of a scaling method. This technique involves the correction of the cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of the GCM-derived temperature and precipitation results for the 20{sup th} century, and the application of the same correction to 21{sup st} century GCM projections. This is done for three meteorological stations located within the Coosa River basin in northern Georgia, and is used to calculate future river flow statistics for the upper Coosa River. Results are compared to the historical Coosa River flow upstream from Georgia Power Company’s Hammond coal-fired power plant and to flows calculated with the original, unscaled GCM results to determine the impact of potential changes in meteorology on future flows.

  3. Global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levine, J.S.

    1991-01-01

    Present processes of global climate change are reviewed. The processes determining global temperature are briefly described and the concept of effective temperature is elucidated. The greenhouse effect is examined, including the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases. 18 refs

  4. Creationism & Climate Change (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newton, S.

    2009-12-01

    Although creationists focus on the biological sciences, recently creationists have also expanded their attacks to include the earth sciences, especially on the topic of climate change. The creationist effort to deny climate change, in addition to evolution and radiometric dating, is part of a broader denial of the methodology and validity of science itself. Creationist misinformation can pose a serious problem for science educators, who are further hindered by the poor treatment of the earth sciences and climate change in state science standards. Recent changes to Texas’ science standards, for example, require that students learn “different views on the existence of global warming.” Because of Texas’ large influence on the national textbook market, textbooks presenting non-scientific “different views” about climate change—or simply omitting the subject entirely because of the alleged “controversy”—could become part of K-12 classrooms across the country.

  5. Climate change and compensation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Karsten Klint; Flanagan, Tine Bech

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a case for compensation of actual harm from climate change in the poorest countries. First, it is shown that climate change threatens to reverse the fight to eradicate poverty. Secondly, it is shown how the problems raised in the literature for compensation to some extent...... are based on misconceptions and do not apply to compensation of present actual harm. Finally, two arguments are presented to the effect that, in so far as developed countries accept a major commitment to mitigate climate change, they should also accept a commitment to address or compensate actual harm from...... climate change. The first argument appeals to the principle that if it is an injustice to cause risk of incurring harm in the future, then it is also an injustice to cause a similar harm now. The second argument appeals to the principle that if there is moral reason to reduce the risk of specific harms...

  6. Global Climatic Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houghton, Richard A.; Woodwell, George M.

    1989-01-01

    Cites some of the evidence which suggests that the production of carbon dioxide and methane from human activities has begun to change the climate. Describes some measures which should be taken to stop or slow this progression. (RT)

  7. Climate Change Adaptation Training

    Science.gov (United States)

    A list of on-line training modules to help local government officials and those interested in water management issues better understand how the changing climate affects the services and resources they care about

  8. Responsibility and climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Jamieson, Dale

    2015-01-01

    Ibegin by providing some background to conceptions of responsibility. I note the extent of disagreement in this area, the diverse and cross-cutting distinctions that are deployed, and the relative neglect of some important problems. These facts make it difficult to attribute responsibility for climate change, but so do some features of climate change itself which I go on to illuminate. Attributions of responsibility are often contested sites because such attributions are fundamentally pragmat...

  9. Climate change - the impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reysset, Bertrand; Billes-Garabedian, Laurent; Henique, Julien; Pascal, Mathilde; Pirard, Philippe; Motreff, Yvon; Barbault, Robert; Weber, Jacques; Gate, Philippe; Salagnac, Jean-Luc; Desplat, Julien; Kounkou-Arnaud, Raphaelle

    2012-01-01

    This special dossier about the impacts of climate change is made of 6 contributions dealing with: the mitigation of climate effects and how to deal with them (Bertrand Reysset); how to dare and transmit (Laurent Billes-Garabedian); littoral risks, the Pas-de-Calais example (Julien Henique); extreme meteorological events and health impacts (Mathilde Pascal, Philippe Pirard, Yvon Motreff); Biodiversity and climate: the janus of global change (Robert Barbault, Jacques Weber); adapting agriculture to dryness and temperatures (Philippe Gate); Paris and the future heats of the year 2100 (Jean-Luc Salagnac, Julien Desplat, Raphaelle Kounkou-Arnaud)

  10. Climate change and forest diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    R.N. Sturrock; Susan Frankel; A. V. Brown; Paul Hennon; J. T. Kliejunas; K. J. Lewis; J. J. Worrall; A. J. Woods

    2011-01-01

    As climate changes, the effects of forest diseases on forest ecosystems will change. We review knowledge of relationships between climate variables and several forest diseases, as well as current evidence of how climate, host and pathogen interactions are responding or might respond to climate change. Many forests can be managed to both adapt to climate change and...

  11. Climate change: Recent findings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hesselmans, G.H.F.M.

    1993-08-01

    In the late eighties several reports have been published on climate change and sea level rise. In the meantime insights may have changed due to the availability of better and more observations and/or more advanced climate models. The aim of this report is to present the most recent findings with respect to climate change, in particular of sea level rise, storm surges and river peak flows. These climate factors are important for the safety of low-lying areas with respect to coastal erosion and flooding. In the first chapters a short review is presented of a few of the eighties reports. Furthermore, the predictions by state of the art climate models at that time are given. The reports from the eighties should be considered as 'old' information, whereas the IPCC supplement and work, for example, by Wigley should be considered as new information. To assess the latest findings two experts in this field were interviewed: dr J. Oerlemans and dr C.J.E. Schuurmans, a climate expert from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI). Their views are presented together with results published in recent papers on the subject. On the basis of this assessment, the report presents current knowledge regarding predictions of climate change (including sea-level rise) over the next century, together with an assessment of the uncertainties associated with these predictions. 14 figs., 11 tabs., 24 refs

  12. Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomon Z. Dobrowski; Sean A. Parks

    2016-01-01

    Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not...

  13. Climate change impacts on wind energy resources in northern Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pryor, S.C.; Barthelmie, R.J.; Kjellstroem, E.

    2005-01-01

    Energy is a fundamental human need. Heat, light and transport for individuals combined with the needs of industry have created a demand for energy which for the last 100-200 years has been met largely through consumption of fossil fuels leading to altered atmospheric composition and modification of the global climate. These effects will be realised on local scales affecting not just temperature and precipitation but also wind, radiation and other parameters. Annual mean wind speeds and wind energy density over northern Europe were significantly higher at the end of twentieth century than during the middle portion of that century, with the majority of the change being focused on the winter season. To address questions regarding possible future wind climates we employ dynamical and empirical downscaling techniques that seek to take coarse resolution output from General Circulation Models (GCM), run to provide scenarios of future climate, and develop higher resolution regional wind climates. Analyses of the wind climate during the historical record indicate that both the dynamical approach and the empirical approach are capable of generating accurate, robust and quantitative assessments of the wind climate and energy density in northern Europe, and hence that they may be of great utility to those seeking financing for, or risk management of, wind farms in the face of climate uncertainty. The synthesis of application of these downscaling tools to climate projections for northern Europe is that there is no evidence of major changes in the wind energy resource. However, more research is required to quantify the uncertainties in developing these projections and to reduce those uncertainties. Further work should also be conducted to assess the validity of these downscaling approaches in other geographical locations. (BA)

  14. Hydrologic extremes - an intercomparison of multiple gridded statistical downscaling methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werner, Arelia T.; Cannon, Alex J.

    2016-04-01

    -scale spatial gradients, passed the greatest number of tests for hydrologic extremes. Non-stationarity in the observational/reanalysis data sets complicated the evaluation of downscaling performance. Comparing temporal homogeneity and trends in climate indices and hydrological model outputs calculated from downscaled reanalyses and gridded observations was useful for diagnosing the reliability of the various historical data sets. We recommend that such analyses be conducted before such data are used to construct future hydro-climatic change scenarios.

  15. Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hudecz, Adriána

    The European Union ROADEX Project 1998 – 2012 was a trans-national roads co-operation aimed at developing ways for interactive and innovative management of low traffic volume roads throughout the cold climate regions of the Northern Periphery Area of Europe. Its goals were to facilitate co......-operation and research into the common problems of the Northern Periphery. This report is an output of the ROADEX “Implementing Accessibility” project (2009-2012). It gives a summary of the results of research into adaptation measures to combat climate change effects on low volume roads in the Northern Periphery...... causes changes in other climatic variables such as rainfall, humidity and wind speed that impact on the functioning of infrastructure such road networks. This paper discusses the climate changes predicted by the world’s meteorological organisations and considers how these may impact on the public...

  16. Climate change - global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ciconkov, Risto

    2001-01-01

    An explanation about climate, weather, climate changes. What is a greenhouse effect, i.e. global warming and reasons which contribute to this effect. Greenhouse gases (GHG) and GWP (Global Warming Potential) as a factor for estimating their influence on the greenhouse effect. Indicators of the climate changes in the previous period by known international institutions, higher concentrations of global average temperature. Projecting of likely scenarios for the future climate changes and consequences of them on the environment and human activities: industry, energy, agriculture, water resources. The main points of the Kyoto Protocol and problems in its realization. The need of preparing a country strategy concerning the acts of the Kyoto Protocol, suggestions which could contribute in the preparation of the strategy. A special attention is pointed to the energy, its resources, the structure of energy consumption and the energy efficiency. (Author)

  17. Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Asseng, A; Ewert, F; Rosenzweig, C

    2013-01-01

    of environments, particularly if the input information is sufficient. However, simulated climate change impacts vary across models owing to differences in model structures and parameter values. A greater proportion of the uncertainty in climate change impact projections was due to variations among crop models...... than to variations among downscaled general circulation models. Uncertainties in simulated impacts increased with CO2 concentrations and associated warming. These impact uncertainties can be reduced by improving temperature and CO2 relationships in models and better quantified through use of multi...

  18. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Dulen, Deanna M.; Ebersole, Joseph L.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Lundquist, Jessica D.; Millar, Constance I.; Maher, Sean P.; Monahan, William B.; Nydick, Koren R.; Redmond, Kelly T.; Sawyer, Sarah C.; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R.

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change. PMID:27509088

  19. Managing climate change refugia for climate adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morelli, Toni L.; Jackson, Stephen T.

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change.

  20. Integrated climate change risk assessment:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2017-01-01

    Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models...... to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness...... of such a framework is demonstrated by means of a risk assessment of flooding from extreme precipitation for the city of Odense, Denmark. A sensitivity analysis shows how the presence of particularly important assets, such as cultural and historical heritage, may be addressed in assessing such risks. The output...

  1. Sensitivity of streamflow to climate change in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grantham, T.; Carlisle, D.; Wolock, D.; McCabe, G. J.; Wieczorek, M.; Howard, J.

    2015-12-01

    Trends of decreasing snowpack and increasing risk of drought are looming challenges for California water resource management. Increasing vulnerability of the state's natural water supplies threatens California's social-economic vitality and the health of its freshwater ecosystems. Despite growing awareness of potential climate change impacts, robust management adaptation has been hindered by substantial uncertainty in future climate predictions for the region. Down-scaled global climate model (GCM) projections uniformly suggest future warming of the region, but projections are highly variable with respect to the direction and magnitude of change in regional precipitation. Here we examine the sensitivity of California surface water supplies to climate variation independently of GCMs. We use a statistical approach to construct predictive models of monthly streamflow based on historical climate and river basin features. We then propagate an ensemble of synthetic climate simulations through the models to assess potential streamflow responses to changes in temperature and precipitation in different months and regions of the state. We also consider the range of streamflow change predicted by bias-corrected downscaled GCMs. Our results indicate that the streamflow in the xeric and coastal mountain regions of California is more sensitive to changes in precipitation than temperature, whereas streamflow in the interior mountain region responds strongly to changes in both temperature and precipitation. Mean climate projections for 2025-2075 from GCM ensembles are highly variable, indicating streamflow changes of -50% to +150% relative to baseline (1980-2010) for most months and regions. By quantifying the sensitivity of streamflow to climate change, rather than attempting to predict future hydrologic conditions based on uncertain GCM projections, these results should be more informative to water managers seeking to assess, and potentially reduce, the vulnerability of surface

  2. Satellite-Enhanced Dynamical Downscaling of Extreme Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nunes, A.

    2015-12-01

    Severe weather events can be the triggers of environmental disasters in regions particularly susceptible to changes in hydrometeorological conditions. In that regard, the reconstruction of past extreme weather events can help in the assessment of vulnerability and risk mitigation actions. Using novel modeling approaches, dynamical downscaling of long-term integrations from global circulation models can be useful for risk analysis, providing more accurate climate information at regional scales. Originally developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the Regional Spectral Model (RSM) is being used in the dynamical downscaling of global reanalysis, within the South American Hydroclimate Reconstruction Project. Here, RSM combines scale-selective bias correction with assimilation of satellite-based precipitation estimates to downscale extreme weather occurrences. Scale-selective bias correction is a method employed in the downscaling, similar to the spectral nudging technique, in which the downscaled solution develops in agreement with its coarse boundaries. Precipitation assimilation acts on modeled deep-convection, drives the land-surface variables, and therefore the hydrological cycle. During the downscaling of extreme events that took place in Brazil in recent years, RSM continuously assimilated NCEP Climate Prediction Center morphing technique precipitation rates. As a result, RSM performed better than its global (reanalysis) forcing, showing more consistent hydrometeorological fields compared with more sophisticated global reanalyses. Ultimately, RSM analyses might provide better-quality initial conditions for high-resolution numerical predictions in metropolitan areas, leading to more reliable short-term forecasting of severe local storms.

  3. Greenland climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Masson-Delmotte, Valérie; Swingedouw, Didier; Landais, Amaëlle

    2012-01-01

    Climate archives available from deep-sea and marine shelf sediments, glaciers, lakes and ice cores in and around Greenland allow us to place the current trends in regional climate, ice sheet dynamics, and land surface changes in a broader perspective. We show that during the last decade (2000s......), atmospheric and sea-surface temperatures are reaching levels last encountered millennia ago when northern high latitude summer insolation was higher due to a different orbital configuration. Concurrently, records from lake sediments in southern Greenland document major environmental and climatic conditions...... regional climate and ice sheet dynamics. The magnitude and rate of future changes in Greenland temperature, in response to increasing greenhouse gas emissions, may be faster than any past abrupt events occurring under interglacial conditions. Projections indicate that within one century Greenland may...

  4. Topologies of climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blok, Anders

    2010-01-01

    Climate change is quickly becoming a ubiquitous socionatural reality, mediating extremes of sociospatial scale from the bodily to the planetary. Although environmentalism invites us to ‘think globally and act locally', the meaning of these scalar designations remains ambiguous. This paper explores...... the topological presuppositions of social theory in the context of global climate change, asking how carbon emissions ‘translate' into various sociomaterial forms. Staging a meeting between Tim Ingold's phenomenology of globes and spheres and the social topologies of actor-network theory (ANT), the paper advances...... a ‘relational-scalar' analytics of spatial practices, technoscience, and power. As technoscience gradually constructs a networked global climate, this ‘grey box' comes to circulate within fluid social spaces, taking on new shades as it hybridizes knowledges, symbols, and practices. Global climates thus come...

  5. Detection and Attribution of Regional Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bala, G; Mirin, A

    2007-01-19

    We developed a high resolution global coupled modeling capability to perform breakthrough studies of the regional climate change. The atmospheric component in our simulation uses a 1{sup o} latitude x 1.25{sup o} longitude grid which is the finest resolution ever used for the NCAR coupled climate model CCSM3. Substantial testing and slight retuning was required to get an acceptable control simulation. The major accomplishment is the validation of this new high resolution configuration of CCSM3. There are major improvements in our simulation of the surface wind stress and sea ice thickness distribution in the Arctic. Surface wind stress and ocean circulation in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current are also improved. Our results demonstrate that the FV version of the CCSM coupled model is a state of the art climate model whose simulation capabilities are in the class of those used for IPCC assessments. We have also provided 1000 years of model data to Scripps Institution of Oceanography to estimate the natural variability of stream flow in California. In the future, our global model simulations will provide boundary data to high-resolution mesoscale model that will be used at LLNL. The mesoscale model would dynamically downscale the GCM climate to regional scale on climate time scales.

  6. Climate Change and Roads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chinowsky, P.; Arndt, Channing

    2012-01-01

    to estimate the impact of individual climate stressors on road infrastructure in Mozambique. Through these models, stressor–response functions are introduced that quantify the cost impact of a specific stressor based on the intensity of the stressor and the type of infrastructure it is affecting. Utilizing...... four climate projection scenarios, the paper details how climate change response decisions may cost the Mozambican government in terms of maintenance costs and long-term roadstock inventory reduction. Through this approach the paper details how a 14% reduction in inventory loss can be achieved through...

  7. The climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    In order to take stock on the climatic change situation and initiatives at the beginning of 2006, the INES (National Institute on the Solar Energy) proposes this special document. It presents the Montreal conference of December 2005, realized to reinforced the actions of the international community against the greenhouse gases. The technical decisions decided at this conference are detailed. The document discusses also the causes and consequences of the climatic warming, the intervention sectors and the actions possibilities. (A.L.B.)

  8. Evaporation and Climate Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brandsma, T.

    1993-01-01

    In this article the influence of climate change on evaporation is discussed. The emphasis is on open water evaporation. Three methods for calculating evaporation are compared considering only changes in temperature and factors directly dependent on temperature. The Penman-method is used to

  9. Spatial and Temporal Responses of Soil Erosion to Climate Change Impacts in a Transnational Watershed in Southeast Asia

    OpenAIRE

    Pham Quy Giang; Le Thi Giang; Kosuke Toshiki

    2017-01-01

    It has been widely predicted that Southeast Asia is among the regions facing the most severe climate change impacts. Despite this forecast, little research has been published on the potential impacts of climate change on soil erosion in this region. This study focused on the impact of climate change on spatial and temporal patterns of soil erosion in the Laos–Vietnam transnational Upper Ca River Watershed. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) coupled with downscaled global climate models...

  10. Adaptability and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sprague, M.W.

    1991-01-01

    The potential social, economic and environmental impacts of climate change are reviewed, with emphasis on agricultural implications. Impact analyses must be done on the scale of watersheds or river basins. For agriculture, climate change effects on water resources are likely to be more important than temperature changes, and climatic variability is also equally important. Another set of critical climatic variables are the frequencies, magnitudes and timing of extreme events such as floods, droughts, etc. A carbon dioxide enriched atmosphere will increase water use efficiency and confer increased tolerance to drought, salinity and air pollution. Better understanding and accounting is required for the effects of increased carbon dioxide on all plant life, including crops. Adaptability of agriculture to change must be taken into account in predicting impacts of climate change, with technological innovation and infrastructure giving agriculture a dynamic nature. Limitations and adaptations must be considered when formulating public policy, to ensure that marginal costs do not exceed marginal benefits. Monoculture plantation forests may be the most efficient sinks of atmospheric carbon dioxide, yet widespread reliance on them may harm biological diversity. Actions the U.S. is currently taking under a no-regrets policy are summarized

  11. Regional climate change scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Somot, S.

    2005-01-01

    Because studies of the regional impact of climate change need higher spatial resolution than that obtained in standard global climate change scenarios, developing regional scenarios from models is a crucial goal for the climate modelling community. The zoom capacity of ARPEGE-Climat, the Meteo-France climate model, allows use of scenarios with a horizontal resolution of about 50 km over France and the Mediterranean basin. An IPCC-A2 scenario for the end of the 21. century in France shows higher temperatures in each season and more winter and less summer precipitation than now. Tuning the modelled statistical distributions to observed temperature and precipitation allows us to study changes in the frequency of extreme events between today's climate and that at the end of century. The frequency of very hot days in summer will increase. In particular, the frequency of days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C will be multiplied by a factor of 10, on average. In our scenario, the Toulouse area and Provence might see one quarter of their summer days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C. (author)

  12. Managing climate change refugia for climate adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toni Lyn Morelli; Christopher Daly; Solomon Z. Dobrowski; Deanna M. Dulen; Joseph L. Ebersole; Stephen T. Jackson; Jessica D. Lundquist; Connie Millar; Sean P. Maher; William B. Monahan; Koren R. Nydick; Kelly T. Redmond; Sarah C. Sawyer; Sarah Stock; Steven R. Beissinger

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that...

  13. How Will Climate Change Impact Cholera Outbreaks?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasr Azadani, F.; Jutla, A.; Rahimikolu, J.; Akanda, A. S.; Huq, A.; Colwell, R. R.

    2014-12-01

    Environmental parameters associated with cholera are well documented. However, cholera continues to be a global public health threat. Uncertainty in defining environmental processes affecting growth and multiplication of the cholera bacteria can be affected significantly by changing climate at different temporal and spatial scales, either through amplification of the hydroclimatic cycle or by enhanced variability of large scale geophysical processes. Endemic cholera in the Bengal Delta region of South Asia has a unique pattern of two seasonal peaks and there are associated with asymmetric and episodic variability in river discharge. The first cholera outbreak in spring is related with intrusion of bacteria laden coastal seawater during low river discharge. Cholera occurring during the fall season is hypothesized to be associated with high river discharge related to a cross-contamination of water resources and, therefore, a second wave of disease, a phenomenon characteristic primarily in the inland regions. Because of difficulties in establishing linkage between coarse resolutions of the Global Climate Model (GCM) output and localized disease outbreaks, the impact of climate change on diarrheal disease has not been explored. Here using the downscaling method of Support Vector Machines from HADCM3 and ECHAM models, we show how cholera outbreak patterns are changing in the Bengal Delta. Our preliminary results indicate statistically significant changes in both seasonality and magnitude in the occurrence of cholera over the next century. Endemic cholera is likely to transform into epidemic forms and new geographical areas will be at risk for cholera outbreaks.

  14. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    The concept of refugia has long been studied from theoretical and paleontological perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change ref...

  15. Climate change matters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macpherson, Cheryl Cox

    2014-04-01

    One manifestation of climate change is the increasingly severe extreme weather that causes injury, illness and death through heat stress, air pollution, infectious disease and other means. Leading health organisations around the world are responding to the related water and food shortages and volatility of energy and agriculture prices that threaten health and health economics. Environmental and climate ethics highlight the associated challenges to human rights and distributive justice but rarely address health or encompass bioethical methods or analyses. Public health ethics and its broader umbrella, bioethics, remain relatively silent on climate change. Meanwhile global population growth creates more people who aspire to Western lifestyles and unrestrained socioeconomic growth. Fulfilling these aspirations generates more emissions; worsens climate change; and undermines virtues and values that engender appreciation of, and protections for, natural resources. Greater understanding of how virtues and values are evolving in different contexts, and the associated consequences, might nudge the individual and collective priorities that inform public policy toward embracing stewardship and responsibility for environmental resources necessary to health. Instead of neglecting climate change and related policy, public health ethics and bioethics should explore these issues; bring transparency to the tradeoffs that permit emissions to continue at current rates; and offer deeper understanding about what is at stake and what it means to live a good life in today's world.

  16. Climate Change Portal - Home Page

    Science.gov (United States)

    Science Partnerships Contact Us Take Action Climate change is already having significant and widespread of climate change. Business Businesses throughout California are taking action to address climate climate change impacts and informing policies to reduce greenhouse gases, adapt to changing environments

  17. Climatic change and nuclear

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schneider, M.

    2003-01-01

    One of the main priorities of the WWF is to increase the implementing of solutions relative to the greenhouse effect fight. In this framework the foundation published a study on the nuclear facing the climatic change problem. The following chapters are detailed: the nuclear and the negotiations on the climatic change; the nuclear close; the unrealistic hypothesis of the nuclear forecast; the nuclear facing other energy supplying options; supplying efficiency for heating, electric power, gas and renewable energies; the consumption efficiency facing the nuclear; the economical aspects; the deregulation effect; the political aspects; the nuclear AND the greenhouse effect. (A.L.B.)

  18. Climate Change Modelling and Its Roles to Chinese Crops Yield

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JU Hui; LIN Er-da; Tim Wheeler; Andrew Challinor; JIANG Shuai

    2013-01-01

    Climate has been changing in the last fifty years in China and will continue to change regardless any efforts for mitigation. Agriculture is a climate-dependent activity and highly sensitive to climate changes and climate variability. Understanding the interactions between climate change and agricultural production is essential for society stable development of China. The first mission is to fully understand how to predict future climate and link it with agriculture production system. In this paper, recent studies both domestic and international are reviewed in order to provide an overall image of the progress in climate change researches. The methods for climate change scenarios construction are introduced. The pivotal techniques linking crop model and climate models are systematically assessed and climate change impacts on Chinese crops yield among model results are summarized. The study found that simulated productions of grain crop inherit uncertainty from using different climate models, emission scenarios and the crops simulation models. Moreover, studies have different spatial resolutions, and methods for general circulation model (GCM) downscaling which increase the uncertainty for regional impacts assessment. However, the magnitude of change in crop production due to climate change (at 700 ppm CO2 eq correct) appears within ±10%for China in these assessments. In most literatures, the three cereal crop yields showed decline under climate change scenarios and only wheat in some region showed increase. Finally, the paper points out several gaps in current researches which need more studies to shorten the distance for objective recognizing the impacts of climate change on crops. The uncertainty for crop yield projection is associated with climate change scenarios, CO2 fertilization effects and adaptation options. Therefore, more studies on the fields such as free air CO2 enrichment experiment and practical adaptations implemented need to be carried out.

  19. High resolution present climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of Svalbard modelled by MAR and implementation of a new online SMB downscaling method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, C.; Fettweis, X.; Kittel, C.; Erpicum, M.

    2017-12-01

    We present the results of high resolution simulations of the climate and SMB of Svalbard with the regional climate model MAR forced by ERA-40 then ERA-Interim, as well as an online downscaling method allowing us to model the SMB and its components at a resolution twice as high (2.5 vs 5 km here) using only about 25% more CPU time. Spitsbergen, the largest island in Svalbard, has a very hilly topography and a high spatial resolution is needed to correctly represent the local topography and the complex pattern of ice distribution and precipitation. However, high resolution runs with an RCM fully coupled to an energy balance module like MAR require a huge amount of computation time. The hydrostatic equilibrium hypothesis used in MAR also becomes less valid as the spatial resolution increases. We therefore developed in MAR a method to run the snow module at a resolution twice as high as the atmospheric module. Near-surface temperature and humidity are corrected on a grid with a resolution twice as high, as a function of their local gradients and the elevation difference between the corresponding pixels in the 2 grids. We compared the results of our runs at 5 km and with SMB downscaled at 2.5 km over 1960 — 2016 and compared those to previous 10 km runs. On Austfonna, where the slopes are gentle, the agreement between observations and the 5 km SMB is better than with the 10 km SMB. It is again improved at 2.5 km but the gain is relatively small, showing the interest of our method rather than running a time consuming classic 2.5 km resolution simulation. On Spitsbergen, we show that a spatial resolution of 2.5 km is still not enough to represent the complex pattern of topography, precipitation and SMB. Due to a change in the summer atmospheric circulation, from a westerly flow over Svalbard to a northwesterly flow bringing colder air, the SMB of Svalbard was stable between 2006 and 2012, while several melt records were broken in Greenland, due to conditions more

  20. Climatic change. What solutions?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vieillefosse, A.

    2009-01-01

    From 1990 to the present day, worldwide greenhouse gas emissions have increased by about 25%. Fighting climatic change has become an urgency: we only have 15 years in front of us to inflect the trajectory of worldwide emissions and to avoid a temperature rise of more than 2 deg. C during this century. Therefore, how is it possible to explain the shift between the need of an urgent action and the apparent inertia of some governing parties? How is it possible to implement a worldwide governance capable to answer the urgency of the fight against climatic change? These are the two questions that this pedagogical and concrete book tries to answer by analysing the different dimensions of climatic change and by making a first status of the building up of the international action, and in particular of the Kyoto protocol. For the post-2012 era, research and negotiations are in progress with the objective of reaching an agreement for the Copenhagen conference of December 2009. Several architectures are possible. This book shades light on the advantages and limitations of each of them with the possible compromises. It supplies a pluri-disciplinary approach of the international negotiations, often considered as complex by the general public. Content: 1 - understanding the climatic change stakes: climatic stakes, the main actors behind the figures, the technical-economical stakes; 2 - understanding the present day architecture of the fight against climatic change: strengths and weaknesses of the Kyoto protocol; encouraging research and technology spreading; the other action means in developing countries; 3 - what structure for a future international agreement?: the Bali negotiation process; the ideal vision: an improved Kyoto protocol; the pragmatic vision: individualized commitments; the negotiation space; preventing a planned fiasco. (J.S.)

  1. Climate change and amphibians

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corn, P.S.

    2005-01-01

    Amphibian life histories are exceedingly sensitive to temperature and precipitation, and there is good evidence that recent climate change has already resulted in a shift to breeding earlier in the year for some species. There are also suggestions that the recent increase in the occurrence of El Niño events has caused declines of anurans in Central America and is linked to elevated mortality of amphibian embryos in the northwestern United States. However, evidence linking amphibian declines in Central America to climate relies solely on correlations, and the mechanisms underlying the declines are not understood. Connections between embryo mortality and declines in abundance have not been demonstrated. Analyses of existing data have generally failed to find a link between climate and amphibian declines. It is likely, however, that future climate change will cause further declines of some amphibian species. Reduced soil moisture could reduce prey species and eliminate habitat. Reduced snowfall and increased summer evaporation could have dramatic effects on the duration or occurrence of seasonal wetlands, which are primary habitat for many species of amphibians. Climate change may be a relatively minor cause of current amphibian declines, but it may be the biggest future challenge to the persistence of many species

  2. Climate change and amphibians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Corn, P. S.

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Amphibian life histories are exceedingly sensitive to temperature and precipitation, and there is good evidence that recent climate change has already resulted in a shift to breeding earlier in the year for some species. There are also suggestions that the recent increase in the occurrence of El Niño events has caused declines of anurans in Central America and is linked to elevated mortality of amphibian embryos in the northwestern United States. However, evidence linking amphibian declines in Central America to climate relies solely on correlations, and the mechanisms underlying the declines are not understood. Connections between embryo mortality and declines in abundance have not been demonstrated. Analyses of existing data have generally failed to find a link between climate and amphibian declines. It is likely, however, that future climate change will cause further declines of some amphibian species. Reduced soil moisture could reduce prey species and eliminate habitat. Reduced snowfall and increased summer evaporation could have dramatic effects on the duration or occurrence of seasonal wetlands, which are primary habitat for many species of amphibians. Climate change may be a relatively minor cause of current amphibian declines, but it may be the biggest future challenge to the persistence of many species

  3. Energy and Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-06-15

    Climate change, and more specifically the carbon emissions from energy production and use, is one of the more vexing problems facing society today. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has just completed its latest assessment on the state of the science of climate change, on the potential consequences related to this change, and on the mitigation steps that could be implemented beginning now, particularly in the energy sector. Few people now doubt that anthropogenic climate change is real or that steps must be taken to deal with it. The World Energy Council has long recognized this serious concern and that in its role as the world's leading international energy organization, it can address the concerns of how to provide adequate energy for human well-being while sustaining our overall quality of life. It has now performed and published 15 reports and working papers on this subject. This report examines what has worked and what is likely to work in the future in this regard and provides policymakers with a practical roadmap to a low-carbon future and the steps needed to achieve it.

  4. GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL:A COMPREHENSIVE TOOL IN CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT STUDIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dharmaveer Singh

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available There is growing concern, how and to what extent future changes in climate will affect human society and natural environments. Continuous emissions of Green House Gasses (GHGs at or above current rates will cause further warming. This, in turn, may modify global climate system during 21st century that very likely would have larger impacts than those observed during 20th century. At present, Global Climate Models (GCMs are only the most reliable tools available for studying behaviour of the climate system. This paper presents a comprehensive review of GCMs including their development and applications in climate change impacts studies. Following a discussion of the limitations of GCMs at regional and local scales, different approaches of downscaling are discussed in detail.

  5. Coupled ice sheet - climate simulations of the last glacial inception and last glacial maximum with a model of intermediate complexity that includes a dynamical downscaling of heat and moisture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quiquet, Aurélien; Roche, Didier M.

    2017-04-01

    Comprehensive fully coupled ice sheet - climate models allowing for multi-millenia transient simulations are becoming available. They represent powerful tools to investigate ice sheet - climate interactions during the repeated retreats and advances of continental ice sheets of the Pleistocene. However, in such models, most of the time, the spatial resolution of the ice sheet model is one order of magnitude lower than the one of the atmospheric model. As such, orography-induced precipitation is only poorly represented. In this work, we briefly present the most recent improvements of the ice sheet - climate coupling within the model of intermediate complexity iLOVECLIM. On the one hand, from the native atmospheric resolution (T21), we have included a dynamical downscaling of heat and moisture at the ice sheet model resolution (40 km x 40 km). This downscaling accounts for feedbacks of sub-grid precipitation on large scale energy and water budgets. From the sub-grid atmospheric variables, we compute an ice sheet surface mass balance required by the ice sheet model. On the other hand, we also explicitly use oceanic temperatures to compute sub-shelf melting at a given depth. Based on palaeo evidences for rate of change of eustatic sea level, we discuss the capability of our new model to correctly simulate the last glacial inception ( 116 kaBP) and the ice volume of the last glacial maximum ( 21 kaBP). We show that the model performs well in certain areas (e.g. Canadian archipelago) but some model biases are consistent over time periods (e.g. Kara-Barents sector). We explore various model sensitivities (e.g. initial state, vegetation, albedo) and we discuss the importance of the downscaling of precipitation for ice nucleation over elevated area and for the surface mass balance of larger ice sheets.

  6. Technology and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morrison, R.; Layzell, D.; McLean, G.

    2001-01-01

    This paper provides a context for assessing the needs for technologies to reduce the concentration of GHG in the atmosphere. It looks at sources, sinks and trends for GHG, in the world at large and in Canada, and at efforts to develop new technologies to achieve the goals of climate change policy. Technology development is one of many approaches to reducing emissions and absorbing GHG from the atmosphere. New technologies will be more successful if they can also achieve non-climate goals, such as better air quality or reduced soil erosion. This paper examines sectors where new technology may be most needed. In general these will be areas where emissions are large, or growing rapidly, or both. It focuses on transport, electricity and biomass as sectors of interest, both because of their potential for contributing to climate change policy goals within Canada, and also because of the author's own research interests. (author)

  7. Adaptation to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carmin, J.; Tierney, K.; Chu, E.; Hunter, L.M.; Roberts, J.T.; Shi, L.; Dunlap, R.E.; Brulle, R.J.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change adaptation involves major global and societal challenges such as finding adequate and equitable adaptation funding and integrating adaptation and development programs. Current funding is insufficient. Debates between the Global North and South center on how best to allocate the

  8. CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Cathy Egan

    resources to cope with climate change impacts such as desertification, soil erosion, and ... By 2050, per capita availability of water is predicted to fall by 50% in the ... release methane, a greenhouse gas, ... and on flood plains in Nepal and India is the thrust of collaborative research ... resilience of agricultural systems.

  9. Climate change and schools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sheffield, Perry E.; Uijttewaal, Simone A.M.; Stewart, James; Galvez, Maida P.

    2017-01-01

    The changing climate is creating additional challenges in maintaining a healthy school environment in the United States (US) where over 50 million people, mostly children, spend approximately a third of their waking hours. Chronic low prioritization of funds and resources to support environmental

  10. Climate change reference guide

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    At the heart of climate change is the greenhouse effect, in which molecules of various gases trap heat in Earths atmosphere and keep it warm enough to support life. Carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) are an important part of Ea...

  11. DTU Climate Change Technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    During 2008 and 2009, DTU held a workshop series focusing on assessment of and adaption to climate changes as well as on mitigation of green house gasses. In the workshops, a total of 1500 scientists, government officials and business leaders have outlined scenarios for technology development...

  12. High-resolution downscaling for hydrological management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ulbrich, Uwe; Rust, Henning; Meredith, Edmund; Kpogo-Nuwoklo, Komlan; Vagenas, Christos

    2017-04-01

    Hydrological modellers and water managers require high-resolution climate data to model regional hydrologies and how these may respond to future changes in the large-scale climate. The ability to successfully model such changes and, by extension, critical infrastructure planning is often impeded by a lack of suitable climate data. This typically takes the form of too-coarse data from climate models, which are not sufficiently detailed in either space or time to be able to support water management decisions and hydrological research. BINGO (Bringing INnovation in onGOing water management; ) aims to bridge the gap between the needs of hydrological modellers and planners, and the currently available range of climate data, with the overarching aim of providing adaptation strategies for climate change-related challenges. Producing the kilometre- and sub-daily-scale climate data needed by hydrologists through continuous simulations is generally computationally infeasible. To circumvent this hurdle, we adopt a two-pronged approach involving (1) selective dynamical downscaling and (2) conditional stochastic weather generators, with the former presented here. We take an event-based approach to downscaling in order to achieve the kilometre-scale input needed by hydrological modellers. Computational expenses are minimized by identifying extremal weather patterns for each BINGO research site in lower-resolution simulations and then only downscaling to the kilometre-scale (convection permitting) those events during which such patterns occur. Here we (1) outline the methodology behind the selection of the events, and (2) compare the modelled precipitation distribution and variability (preconditioned on the extremal weather patterns) with that found in observations.

  13. WCRP COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX: a diagnostic MIP for CMIP6

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. J. Gutowski Jr.

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX is a diagnostic model intercomparison project (MIP in CMIP6. CORDEX builds on a foundation of previous downscaling intercomparison projects to provide a common framework for downscaling activities around the world. The CORDEX Regional Challenges provide a focus for downscaling research and a basis for making use of CMIP6 global climate model (GCM output to produce downscaled projected changes in regional climates and assess sources of uncertainties in the projections, all of which can potentially be distilled into climate change information for vulnerability, impacts and adaptation studies. CORDEX Flagship Pilot Studies advance regional downscaling by targeting one or more of the CORDEX Regional Challenges. A CORDEX-CORE framework is planned that will produce a baseline set of homogeneous high-resolution, downscaled projections for regions worldwide. In CMIP6, CORDEX coordinates with ScenarioMIP and is structured to allow cross comparisons with HighResMIP and interaction with the CMIP6 VIACS Advisory Board.

  14. Scalability of regional climate change in Europe for high-end scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, O. B.; Yang, S.; Boberg, F.

    2015-01-01

    With the help of a simulation using the global circulation model (GCM) EC-Earth, downscaled over Europe with the regional model DMI-HIRHAM5 at a 25 km grid point distance, we investigated regional climate change corresponding to 6°C of global warming to investigate whether regional climate change...... are close to the RCP8.5 emission scenario. We investigated the extent to which pattern scaling holds, i.e. the approximation that the amplitude of any climate change will be approximately proportional to the amount of global warming. We address this question through a comparison of climate change results...... from downscaling simulations over the same integration domain, but for different driving and regional models and scenarios, mostly from the EU ENSEMBLES project. For almost all quantities investigated, pattern scaling seemed to apply to the 6° simulation. This indicates that the single 6° simulation...

  15. Climate indices of Iran under climate change

    OpenAIRE

    alireza kochaki; mehdi nasiry; gholamali kamali

    2009-01-01

    Global warming will affect all climatic variables and particularly rainfall patterns. The purpose of present investigation was to predict climatic parameters of Iran under future climate change and to compare them with the present conditions. For this reason, UKMO General Circulation Model was used for the year 2025 and 2050. By running the model, minimum and maximum monthly temperature and also maximum monthly rainfall for the representative climate stations were calculated and finally the e...

  16. Africa and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Toulmin, Camilla; Huq, Saleemul

    2006-10-15

    Remember the scenes from New Orleans of flooded streets and scavenging people? One year on and little progress is evident in achieving the step-change needed in controlling greenhouse gases. Hurricane Katrina showed only too vividly the massive power of natural forces combined with inadequate preparation. The flood waters washed away and exposed fully the lack of planning and low priority given to securing life and livelihoods, especially of the more vulnerable groups in the community. If this is what a whirlwind can bring in the southern USA, what might we reap in further storms and droughts tomorrow in poorer parts of the world? New research findings point to the likelihood of larger, faster and more substantial changes to our climate system. The African continent is particularly vulnerable to adverse changes in climate, the evidence for which is becoming more and more stark.

  17. Climate change and coasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schellnhuber, H.J.; Sterr, H.

    1993-01-01

    The investigation of climatic processes and behaviour examines the effects of climatic changes on human beings and the surrounding environment. The authors discuss, in a wide-subject perspective, the regional impacts of the greenhouse effect, increase of the sea level, and changed conditions of both precipitation and wind using the North and Baltic Sea as examples. In this effort, questions dealing with changes of water level, motion and (disturbance) of the sea and morphodynamic in the coastal apron, in reference to requirements on a future protection of the shore, are handled. In addition, not only the aspects of ecosystem-orientated adaption in the strip of land between the continent northern islands 'Wattenmeer' and ground landscape (Bodenlandschaft) are taken into consideration, but also the impact of these on human beings and their interest to use the coastal regions. (orig.). 102 figs., 9 tabs [de

  18. Implications of climate change on landslide hazard in Central Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvioli, Massimiliano; Melillo, Massimo; Guzzetti, Fausto; Rossi, Mauro; Palazzi, Elisa; von Hardenberg, Jost; Brunetti, Maria Teresa; Peruccacci, Silvia

    2018-07-15

    The relation between climate change and its potential effects on the stability of slopes remains an open issue. For rainfall induced landslides, the point consists in determining the effects of the projected changes in the duration and amounts of rainfall that can initiate slope failures. We investigated the relationship between fine-scale climate projections obtained by downscaling and the expected modifications in landslide occurrence in Central Italy. We used rainfall measurements taken by 56 rain gauges in the 9-year period 2003-2011, and the RainFARM technique to generate downscaled synthetic rainfall fields from regional climate model projections for the 14-year calibration period 2002-2015, and for the 40-year projection period 2010-2049. Using a specific algorithm, we extracted a number of rainfall events, i.e. rainfall periods separated by dry periods of no or negligible amount of rain, from the measured and the synthetic rainfall series. Then, we used the selected rainfall events to forcethe Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability Model TRIGRS v. 2.1. We analyzed the results in terms of variations (or lack of variations) in the rainfall thresholds for the possible initiation of landslides, in the probability distribution of landslide size (area), and in landslide hazard. Results showed that the downscaled rainfall fields obtained by RainFARM can be used to single out rainfall events, and to force the slope stability model. Results further showed that while the rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence are expected to change in future scenarios, the probability distribution of landslide areas are not. We infer that landslide hazard in the study area is expected to change in response to the projected variations in the rainfall conditions. We expect our results to contribute to regional investigations of the expected impact of projected climate variations on slope stability conditions and on landslide hazards. Copyright

  19. Potential changes in the extreme climate conditions at the regional scale: from observed data to modelling approaches and towards probabilistic climate change information

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gachon, P.; Radojevic, M.; Harding, A.; Saad, C.; Nguyen, V.T.V.

    2008-01-01

    The changes in the characteristics of extreme climate conditions are one of the most critical challenges for all ecosystems, human being and infrastructure, in the context of the on-going global climate change. However, extremes information needed for impacts studies cannot be obtained directly from coarse scale global climate models (GCMs), due mainly to their difficulties to incorporate regional scale feedbacks and processes responsible in part for the occurrence, intensity and duration of extreme events. Downscaling approaches, namely statistical and dynamical downscaling techniques (i.e. SD and RCM), have emerged as useful tools to develop high resolution climate change information, in particular for extremes, as those are theoretically more capable to take into account regional/local forcings and their feedbacks from large scale influences as they are driven with GCM synoptic variables. Nevertheless, in spite of the potential added values from downscaling methods (statistical and dynamical), a rigorous assessment of these methods are needed as inherent difficulties to simulate extremes are still present. In this paper, different series of RCM and SD simulations using three different GCMs are presented and evaluated with respect to observed values over the current period and over a river basin in southern Quebec, with future ensemble runs, i.e. centered over 2050s (i.e. 2041-2070 period using the SRES A2 emission scenario). Results suggest that the downscaling performance over the baseline period significantly varies between the two downscaling techniques and over various seasons with more regular reliable simulated values with SD technique for temperature than for RCM runs, while both approaches produced quite similar temperature changes in the future from median values with more divergence for extremes. For precipitation, less accurate information is obtained compared to observed data, and with more differences among models with higher uncertainties in the

  20. Global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gugele, B.; Radunsky, K.; Spangl, W.

    2002-01-01

    In the last decade marked changes of climatic factors have been observed, such as increases in average global earth temperatures, the amount of precipitation and the number of extreme weather events. Green house gases influence the energy flow in the atmosphere by absorbing infra-red radiation. An overview of the Austrian greenhouse gas emissions is given, including statistical data and their major sources. In 1999 the emissions of all six Kyoto greenhouse gases ( CO 2 , CH 4 , N 2 O, HFC s , PFC s and SF 6 ) amounted to 79.2 million tonnes of CO 2 equivalents . A comparison between the EC Members states is also presented. Finally the climate change strategy prepared by the Austrian Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management together with other ministries and the federal provinces is discussed, which main aim is to lead to an annual emission reduction of 16 million tonnes of CO 2 . Figs. 2, Tables 1. (nevyjel)

  1. Climatic change of summer temperature and precipitation in the Alpine region - a statistical-dynamical assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heimann, D.; Sept, V.

    1998-12-01

    Climatic changes in the Alpine region due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations are assessed by using statistical-dynamical downscaling. The downscaling procedure is applied to two 30-year periods (1971-2000 and 2071-2100, summer months only) of the output of a transient coupled ocean/atmosphere climate scenario simulation. The downscaling results for the present-day climate are in sufficient agreement with observations. The estimated regional climate change during the next 100 years shows a general warming. The mean summer temperatures increase by about 3 to more than 5 Kelvin. The most intense climatic warming is predicted in the western parts of the Alps. The amount of summer precipitation decreases in most parts of central Europe by more than 20 percent. Only over the Adriatic area and parts of eastern central Europe an increase in precipitation is simulated. The results are compared with observed trends and results of regional climate change simulations of other authors. The observed trends and the majority of the simulated trends agree with our results. However, there are also climate change estimates which completely contradict with ours. (orig.) 29 refs.

  2. Climate change and amphibians

    OpenAIRE

    Corn, P. S.

    2005-01-01

    Amphibian life histories are exceedingly sensitive to temperature and precipitation, and there is good evidence that recent climate change has already resulted in a shift to breeding earlier in the year for some species. There are also suggestions that the recent increase in the occurrence of El Niño events has caused declines of anurans in Central America and is linked to elevated mortality of amphibian embryos in the northwestern United States. However, evidence linking amphibian declines i...

  3. Climate Change Justice

    OpenAIRE

    Sunstein, Cass R.; Posner, Eric A.

    2007-01-01

    Greenhouse gas reductions would cost some nations much more than others and benefit some nations far less than others. Significant reductions would impose especially large costs on the United States, and recent projections suggest that the United States has relatively less to lose from climate change. In these circumstances, what does justice require the United States to do? Many people believe that the United States is required to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions beyond the point that is ...

  4. Climate Change Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Toman, Michael; Shogren, Jason

    2000-01-01

    Having risen from relative obscurity as few as ten years ago, climate change now looms large among environmental policy issues. Its scope is global; the potential environmental and economic impacts are ubiquitous; the potential restrictions on human choices touch the most basic goals of people in all nations; and the sheer scope of the potential response—a significant shift away from using fossil fuels as the primary energy source in the modern economy—is daunting. In this paper, we explore t...

  5. Uncertainty in projected point precipitation extremes for hydrological impact analysis of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Uytven, Els; Willems, Patrick

    2017-04-01

    Current trends in the hydro-meteorological variables indicate the potential impact of climate change on hydrological extremes. Therefore, they trigger an increased importance climate adaptation strategies in water management. The impact of climate change on hydro-meteorological and hydrological extremes is, however, highly uncertain. This is due to uncertainties introduced by the climate models, the internal variability inherent to the climate system, the greenhouse gas scenarios and the statistical downscaling methods. In view of the need to define sustainable climate adaptation strategies, there is a need to assess these uncertainties. This is commonly done by means of ensemble approaches. Because more and more climate models and statistical downscaling methods become available, there is a need to facilitate the climate impact and uncertainty analysis. A Climate Perturbation Tool has been developed for that purpose, which combines a set of statistical downscaling methods including weather typing, weather generator, transfer function and advanced perturbation based approaches. By use of an interactive interface, climate impact modelers can apply these statistical downscaling methods in a semi-automatic way to an ensemble of climate model runs. The tool is applicable to any region, but has been demonstrated so far to cases in Belgium, Suriname, Vietnam and Bangladesh. Time series representing future local-scale precipitation, temperature and potential evapotranspiration (PET) conditions were obtained, starting from time series of historical observations. Uncertainties on the future meteorological conditions are represented in two different ways: through an ensemble of time series, and a reduced set of synthetic scenarios. The both aim to span the full uncertainty range as assessed from the ensemble of climate model runs and downscaling methods. For Belgium, for instance, use was made of 100-year time series of 10-minutes precipitation observations and daily

  6. Managing Climate Change Risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, R. [CSIRO Atmospheric Research, PMB1 Aspendale, Victoria 3195 (Australia)

    2003-07-01

    Issues of uncertainty, scale and delay between action and response mean that 'dangerous' climate change is best managed within a risk assessment framework that evolves as new information is gathered. Risk can be broadly defined as the combination of likelihood and consequence; the latter measured as vulnerability to greenhouse-induced climate change. The most robust way to assess climate change damages in a probabilistic framework is as the likelihood of critical threshold exceedance. Because vulnerability is dominated by local factors, global vulnerability is the aggregation of many local impacts being forced beyond their coping ranges. Several case studies, generic sea level rise and temperature, coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef and water supply in an Australian catchment, are used to show how local risk assessments can be assessed then expressed as a function of global warming. Impacts treated thus can be aggregated to assess global risks consistent with Article 2 of the UNFCCC. A 'proof of concept' example is then used to show how the stabilisation of greenhouse gases can constrain the likelihood of exceeding critical thresholds at both the both local and global scale. This analysis suggests that even if the costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and the benefits of avoiding climate damages can be estimated, the likelihood of being able to meet a cost-benefit target is limited by both physical and socio-economic uncertainties. In terms of managing climate change risks, adaptation will be most effective at reducing vulnerability likely to occur at low levels of warming. Successive efforts to mitigate greenhouse gases will reduce the likelihood of reaching levels of global warming from the top down, with the highest potential temperatures being avoided first, irrespective of contributing scientific uncertainties. This implies that the first cuts in emissions will always produce the largest economic benefits in terms of avoided

  7. Predicting future US water yield and ecosystem productivity by linking an ecohydrological model to WRF dynamically downscaled climate projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    S. Sun; Ge Sun; Erika Cohen Mack; Steve McNulty; Peter Caldwell; K. Duan; Y. Zhang

    2015-01-01

    Quantifying the potential impacts of climate change on water yield and ecosystem productivity (i.e., carbon balances) is essential to developing sound watershed restoration plans, and climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. This study links an ecohydrological model (Water Supply and Stress Index, WaSSI) with WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model)...

  8. Stop the climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tissot, B.

    2003-04-01

    This book tries to answer today's main environmental questions relative to the climatic change: how our massive petroleum and coal consumption has led to a greenhouse effect? What will happen tomorrow when Chinese and Indian people will reach the same energy consumption levels as people of western countries? Is it too late to reverse the trend? If solar energy is the long-term solution, what can we do in the meantime? The author presents the conditions we must fulfill to keep the Earth in a good environmental condition: 1 - a brief story of energy; 2 - the climatic changes and their secrets; 3 - the greenhouse effect: necessary for life but worrying for the future; 4 - the energy demand and the stakes; 2 - fossil fuels: abundance or shortage? 6 - can we fight against greenhouse gases? 7 - the nuclear energy (reactors and wastes management); 8 - the renewable energies: a necessary contribution at the century scale and the unique answer at the millennium scale; 9 - the time of main choices is not so far; 10 - two questions (energy demand and climatic change) and a unique answer (sustainable development). (J.S.)

  9. Climate change in high definition : scenarios for impacts and adaptation research : conference proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-01-01

    This conference provided a forum to review information and tools to conduct climate change impact and adaptation research and assessments. The research community, policy advisors and resource managers reviewed the latest advancements in global and regional climate modeling, climate scenarios, downscaling tools and application of scenarios for decision-making. The new Climate Change Scenarios Network (CCSN) website was also launched at this meeting, which also provided training in Environment Canada's new statistical downscaling tool developed in collaboration with the Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique, Eau, Terre et Environnement (INRS-ETE). New features of the CCSN were presented along with examples of how information from the network can be applied in specific cases, including assessments of impacts in areas such as human health and water resources. A training session on downscaling with the newly developed Automated Statistical Downscaling (ASD) tool was also provided. The conference featured 19 presentations, of which 3 have been catalogued separately for inclusion in this database. refs., tabs., figs

  10. Identification of robust statistical downscaling methods based on a comprehensive suite of performance metrics for South Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eum, H. I.; Cannon, A. J.

    2015-12-01

    Climate models are a key provider to investigate impacts of projected future climate conditions on regional hydrologic systems. However, there is a considerable mismatch of spatial resolution between GCMs and regional applications, in particular a region characterized by complex terrain such as Korean peninsula. Therefore, a downscaling procedure is an essential to assess regional impacts of climate change. Numerous statistical downscaling methods have been used mainly due to the computational efficiency and simplicity. In this study, four statistical downscaling methods [Bias-Correction/Spatial Disaggregation (BCSD), Bias-Correction/Constructed Analogue (BCCA), Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA), and Bias-Correction/Climate Imprint (BCCI)] are applied to downscale the latest Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data to stations for precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature over South Korea. By split sampling scheme, all methods are calibrated with observational station data for 19 years from 1973 to 1991 are and tested for the recent 19 years from 1992 to 2010. To assess skill of the downscaling methods, we construct a comprehensive suite of performance metrics that measure an ability of reproducing temporal correlation, distribution, spatial correlation, and extreme events. In addition, we employ Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) to identify robust statistical downscaling methods based on the performance metrics for each season. The results show that downscaling skill is considerably affected by the skill of CFSR and all methods lead to large improvements in representing all performance metrics. According to seasonal performance metrics evaluated, when TOPSIS is applied, MACA is identified as the most reliable and robust method for all variables and seasons. Note that such result is derived from CFSR output which is recognized as near perfect climate data in climate studies. Therefore, the

  11. The neurobiology of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donnell, Sean

    2018-01-06

    Directional climate change (global warming) is causing rapid alterations in animals' environments. Because the nervous system is at the forefront of animals' interactions with the environment, the neurobiological implications of climate change are central to understanding how individuals, and ultimately populations, will respond to global warming. Evidence is accumulating for individual level, mechanistic effects of climate change on nervous system development and performance. Climate change can also alter sensory stimuli, changing the effectiveness of sensory and cognitive systems for achieving biological fitness. At the population level, natural selection forces stemming from directional climate change may drive rapid evolutionary change in nervous system structure and function.

  12. The neurobiology of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donnell, Sean

    2018-02-01

    Directional climate change (global warming) is causing rapid alterations in animals' environments. Because the nervous system is at the forefront of animals' interactions with the environment, the neurobiological implications of climate change are central to understanding how individuals, and ultimately populations, will respond to global warming. Evidence is accumulating for individual level, mechanistic effects of climate change on nervous system development and performance. Climate change can also alter sensory stimuli, changing the effectiveness of sensory and cognitive systems for achieving biological fitness. At the population level, natural selection forces stemming from directional climate change may drive rapid evolutionary change in nervous system structure and function.

  13. Climate change and skin disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundgren, Ashley D

    2018-04-01

    Despite commanding essentially universal scientific consensus, climate change remains a divisive and poorly understood topic in the United States. Familiarity with this subject is not just for climate scientists. The impact of climate change on human morbidity and mortality may be considerable; thus, physicians also should be knowledgeable in this realm. Climate change science can seem opaque and inferential, creating fertile ground for political polemics and undoubtedly contributing to confusion among the general public. This puts physicians in a pivotal position to facilitate a practical understanding of climate change in the public sphere by discussing changes in disease patterns and their possible relationship to a changing climate. This article provides a background on climate change for dermatologists and highlights how climate change may impact the management of skin disease across the United States.

  14. Market strategies for climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kolk, A.; Pinkse, J.M.

    2004-01-01

    The issue of climate change has attracted increasing business attention in the past decade. Whereas companies initially aimed primarily at influencing the policy debate, corporate strategies increasingly include economic responses. Existing classifications for climate change strategies however still

  15. A synthesis of regional climate change simulations - A Scandinavian perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, J. H.; Räinsänen, J.; Iversen, T.

    2001-01-01

    Four downscaling experiments of regional climate change for the Nordic countries have been conducted with three different regional climate models (RCMs). A short synthesis of the outcome of the suite of experiments is presented as an ensemble, reflecting the different driving atmosphere-ocean...... general circulation model (AOGCM) conditions, RCM model resolution and domain size, and choice of emission scenarios. This allows the sources of uncertainties in the projections to be assessed. At the same time analysis of the climate change signal for temperature and precipitation over the period 1990......-2050 reveals strong similarities. In particular, all experiments in the suite simulate changes in the precipitation distribution towards a higher frequency of heavy precipitation....

  16. Climate Change and Forests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Omenda, T.O

    1997-01-01

    The causes for climatic change in the period between 3000 and 1250 BC was different from what present scenario portends. After industrialization, temperatures has arisen by 0.5 degrees centigrade every 100 years since factories started to spew out smoke. Over the last two centuries, the concentration of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere has increased by more than 25% from about 275ppm in the 18th Century to more than 350ppm at the present time while the current level is expected to double by the year 2050. The increase in Carbon Dioxide and together with other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will trap the sun's radiation causing the mean global temperatures to rise by between 1 degree and 5 degrees centigrade by 2050. The climatic change affects forestry in many ways for instance, temperatures determines the rate at which enzymes catalyze biochemical reactions while solar radiation provide the energy which drive light reactions in photosynthesis. On the other hand, water which is a component of climate is a universal solvent which enables plants to transport nutrients through the transpirational stream, and similarly transport photosynthates from the leave to all parts of the plants. It is a raw material for photosynthesis and important for maintaining turgidity, which is important for growth

  17. Impacts of climate change on wind energy resources in France: a regionalization study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Najac, J.

    2008-11-01

    In this work, we study the impact of climate change on surface winds in France and draw conclusions concerning wind energy resources. Because of their coarse spatial resolution, climate models cannot properly reproduce the spatial variability of surface winds. Thus, 2 down-scaling methods are developed in order to regionalize an ensemble of climate scenarios: a statistical method based on weather typing and a statistic-dynamical method that resorts to high resolution mesoscale modelling. By 2050, significant but relatively small changes are depicted with, in particular, a decrease of the wind speed in the southern and an increase in the northern regions of France. The use of other down-scaling methods enables us to study several uncertainty sources: it appears that most of the uncertainty is due to the climate models. (author)

  18. Climatic change and impacts: a general introduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fantechi, R.; Almeida-Teixeira, M.E.; Maracchi, G.

    1991-01-01

    These proceedings are divided into six parts containing 29 technical papers. 1. An Overview of the Climatic System, 2. Past climate Changes, 3. Climate Processes and Climate Modelling, 4. Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change, 5. Climatic Impacts, 6. STUDENTS' PAPERS

  19. Modelling the effects of climate change on streamflow in a sub-basin of the lower Churchill River

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pryse-Phillips, Amy; Snelgrove, Ken

    2010-01-01

    Climate change is likely to affect extreme flows as well as average flows. This is an important consideration for hydroelectric power producers. This paper presented the development of an approach to assess the impact of climate changes on seasonal and average annual river flows. The main goal was to investigate how climate change will affect the hydroelectric potential of the Lower Churchill Project using different combinations of emissions scenarios, climate model output and downscaling techniques. The setup and calibration of the numerical hydrological model, WATFLOOD, were performed as preliminary work for the Pinus River basin selected as study basin. Downscaled climate data from the North America change assessment program for both current and future climate periods were analysed. The calibrated model was used to simulate the current and future period streamflow scenarios. The results showed a 13 percent increase in mean annual flows concentrated in the winter and spring seasons.

  20. Modelling the effects of climate change on streamflow in a sub-basin of the lower Churchill River

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pryse-Phillips, Amy [Hatch Ltd., St John' s, (Canada); Snelgrove, Ken [Memorial University of Newfoundland, St John' s, (Canada)

    2010-07-01

    Climate change is likely to affect extreme flows as well as average flows. This is an important consideration for hydroelectric power producers. This paper presented the development of an approach to assess the impact of climate changes on seasonal and average annual river flows. The main goal was to investigate how climate change will affect the hydroelectric potential of the Lower Churchill Project using different combinations of emissions scenarios, climate model output and downscaling techniques. The setup and calibration of the numerical hydrological model, WATFLOOD, were performed as preliminary work for the Pinus River basin selected as study basin. Downscaled climate data from the North America change assessment program for both current and future climate periods were analysed. The calibrated model was used to simulate the current and future period streamflow scenarios. The results showed a 13 percent increase in mean annual flows concentrated in the winter and spring seasons.

  1. Climate Change and Natural Disasters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Merkouris, Panos; Negri, Stefania; Maljean-Dubois, Sandrine

    2014-01-01

    Only 21 years ago, in 1992, the first ever convention on climate change, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was signed. The science behind studying climate change and its effects on the environment is not only mind-boggling but still in its infancy. It should come

  2. Climate change and the biosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    F. Stuart Chapin

    2008-01-01

    Scientific assessments now clearly demonstrate the ecologic and societal consequences of human induced climate change, as detailed by the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. Global warming spells danger for Earth's biomes, which in turn play an important role in climate change. On the following pages, you will read about some of...

  3. Agriculture and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abelson, P.H.

    1992-01-01

    How will increases in levels of CO 2 and changes in temperature affect food production? A recently issued report analyzes prospects for US agriculture 1990 to 2030. The report, prepared by a distinguished Task Force, first projects the evolution of agriculture assuming increased levels of CO 2 but no climate change. Then it deals with effects of climate change, followed by a discussion of how greenhouse emissions might be diminished by agriculture. Economic and policy matters are also covered. How the climate would respond to more greenhouse gases is uncertain. If temperatures were higher, there would be more evaporation and more precipitation. Where would the rain fall? That is a good question. Weather in a particular locality is not determined by global averages. The Dust Bowl of the 1930s could be repeated at its former site or located in another region such as the present Corn Belt. But depending on the realities at a given place, farmers have demonstrated great flexibility in choosing what they may grow. Their flexibility has been increased by the numerous varieties of seeds of major crops that are now available, each having different characteristics such as drought resistance and temperature tolerance. In past, agriculture has contributed about 5% of US greenhouse gases. Two large components have involved emissions of CO 2 from farm machinery and from oxidation of organic matter in soil due to tillage. Use of diesel fuel and more efficient machinery has reduced emissions from that source by 40%. In some areas changed tillage practices are now responsible for returning carbon to the soil. The report identifies an important potential for diminishing net US emissions of CO 2 by growth and utilization of biomass. Large areas are already available that could be devoted to energy crops

  4. Using dynamical downscaling to close the gap between global change scenarios and local permafrost dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stendel, Martin; Romanovsky, Vladimir E.; Christensen, Jens H.

    2007-01-01

    Even though we can estimate the zonation of present-day permafrost from deep-soil temperatures obtained from global coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) by accounting for heat conduction in the frozen soil, it is impossible to explicitly resolve soil properties, vegetation......, in particular in mountainous regions. By using global climate change scenarios as driving fields, one can obtain permafrost dynamics in high temporal resolution on the order of years. For the 21st century under the IPCC SRES scenarios A2 and B2, we find an increase of mean annual ground temperature by up to 6 K...

  5. Two-Step Downscaling of Trmm 3b43 V7 Precipitation in Contrasting Climatic Regions With Sparse Monitoring: The Case of Ecuador in Tropical South America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacinto Ulloa

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Spatial prediction of precipitation with high resolution is a challenging task in regions with strong climate variability and scarce monitoring. For this purpose, the quasi-continuous supply of information from satellite imagery is commonly used to complement in situ data. However, satellite images of precipitation are available at coarse resolutions, and require adequate methods for spatial downscaling and calibration. The objective of this paper is to introduce and evaluate a 2-step spatial downscaling approach for monthly precipitation applied to TRMM 3B43 (from 0 . 25 ∘ ≈ 27 km to 5 km resolution, resulting in 5 downscaled products for the period 01-2001/12-2011. The methodology was evaluated in 3 contrasting climatic regions of Ecuador. In step 1, bilinear resampling was applied over TRMM, and used as a reference product. The second step introduces further variability, and consists of four alternative gauge-satellite merging methods: (1 regression with in situ stations, (2 regression kriging with in situ stations, (3 regression with in situ stations and auxiliary variables, and (4 regression kriging with in situ stations and auxiliary variables. The first 2 methods only use the resampled TRMM data set as an independent variable. The last 2 methods enrich these models with auxiliary environmental factors, incorporating atmospheric and land variables. The results showed that no product outperforms the others in every region. In general, the methods with residual kriging correction outperformed the regression models. Regression kriging with situ data provided the best representation in the Coast, while regression kriging with in situ and auxiliary data generated the best results in the Andes. In the Amazon, no product outperformed the resampled TRMM images, probably due to the low density of in situ stations. These results are relevant to enhance satellite precipitation, depending on the availability of in situ data, auxiliary satellite

  6. Quantifying population exposure to airborne particulate matter during extreme events in California due to climate change

    OpenAIRE

    A. Mahmud; M. Hixson; M. J. Kleeman

    2012-01-01

    The effect of climate change on population-weighted concentrations of particulate matter (PM) during extreme events was studied using the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the UCD/CIT 3-D photochemical air quality model. A "business as usual" (B06.44) global emissions scenario was dynamically downscaled for the entire state of California between the years 2000–2006 and 2047–2053. Air quality simulations were carried out for ...

  7. Quantifying population exposure to airborne particulate matter during extreme events in California due to climate change

    OpenAIRE

    A. Mahmud; M. Hixson; M. J. Kleeman

    2012-01-01

    The effect of climate change on population-weighted concentrations of particulate matter (PM) during extreme pollution events was studied using the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the UCD/CIT 3-D photochemical air quality model. A "business as usual" (B06.44) global emissions scenario was dynamically downscaled for the entire state of California between the years 2000–2006 and 2047–2053. Air quality simulations were carried out for 1008 days ...

  8. Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change.

    OpenAIRE

    Schiavon, Stefano; Zecchin, Roberto

    2007-01-01

    Politiche, misure e strumenti per contenere le emissioni di CO2 Illustriamo l’ultimo contributo al quarto Rapporto sui cambiamenti climatici votato a maggio 2007 dal terzo gruppo di lavoro del Comitato intergovernativo “Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change”. Il Rapporto affronta la problematica delle tendenze delle emissioni dei gas serra e il tema della mitigazione a breve e lungo termine. Presentiamo un’analisi critica delle proposte del documento.

  9. The climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calvo Redondo, A.; Rodriguez Eustaquio, A.; Sanchez y Llorente, J.M.; Luis y Hernandez, S.; Panero Santos, C.; Gomez Cubero, J.A.; Arias-Camison Hernandez, J.C.

    1994-01-01

    This paper has been developed to show how the future of the climate of our planet could become. The factors that takes places in this possible change are also carefully explained. The human action over the environment is probably disturbing the atmospheric system. The processes that involves this perturbations are shown: pollution, fires in hugh regions such as Amazonia Central Australia, Central and East Africa and some others. Factors like these seems are destroying the ozone shell. We also explain the problems to be sure that the expectatives for the future are reliable. Finally, we propose some solutions for this situation. Special situations like nuclear winter or the desertization are also included. (Author)

  10. Energy and climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cadena, Angela Ines

    2000-01-01

    Human intervention in the carbon cycle has become a relevant concern in recent times. Global warming is a phenomenon due to the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG-s) carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and chlorofluorocarbons, believed to be irreversible. CO 2 is the most important GHG its contribution to the radioactive forcing of climate is estimated in about 70%. Changes in the global concentration of these gases depend on the level of emissions as a by-product of economic activities, the natural assimilative capacity of the global ecosystem, and the abatement activities. The paper include the Colombian situation

  11. Interdisciplinarity, Climate, and Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulwarty, R. S.

    2016-12-01

    Interdisciplinarity has become synonymous with all things progressive about research and education. This is so not simply because of a philosophical belief in the heterogeneity of knowledge but because of the scientific and social complexities of problems of major concern. The increased demand for improved climate knowledge and information has increased pressure to support planning under changing rates of extremes event occurrence, is well-documented. The application of useful climate data, information and knowledge requires multiple networks and information services infrastructure that support planning and implementation. As widely quoted, Pasteur's quadrant is a label given to a class of scientific research methodologies that seeks fundamental understanding of scientific problems and, simultaneously, to benefit society-what Stokes called "use-inspired research". Innovation, in this context, has been defined as "the process by which individuals and organizations generate new ideas and put them into practice". A growing number of research institutes and programs have begun developing a cadre of professionals focused on integrating basic and applied research in areas such as climate risk assessment and adaptation. There are now several examples of where researchers and teams have crafted examples that include affected communities. In this presentation we will outline the lessons from several efforts including the PACE program, the RISAs, NIDIS, the Climate Services Information System and other interdisciplinary service-oriented efforts in which the author has been involved. Some early lessons include the need to: Recognize that key concerns of social innovation go beyond the projections of climate and other global changes to embrace multiple methods Continue to train scientists of all stripes of disciplinary norms, but higher education should also prepare students who plan to seek careers outside of academia by increasing flexibility in graduate training programs

  12. Climate change issues in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ye Ruqiu (China National Environmental Protection Agency, Beijing (China))

    China is vulnerable to global climate change because of its specific geographical and climatic conditions. Recent climate change trends in China are briefly described. To deal with climate change and reduce the increase in greenhouse gas emissions, a set of strategic measures aimed at harmonizing environmental protection and economic development have been worked out. Special attention has been given to the analysis of problems of energy efficiency and energy structure. Preliminary policy consideration is discussed. 8 refs., 3 tabs.

  13. Climate change issues in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ye Ruqiu

    1994-01-01

    China is vulnerable to global climate change because of its specific geographical and climatic conditions. Recent climate change trends in China are briefly described. To deal with climate change and reduce the increase in greenhouse gas emissions, a set of strategic measures aimed at harmonizing environmental protection and economic development have been worked out. Special attention has been given to the analysis of problems of energy efficiency and energy structure. Preliminary policy consideration is discussed. (author). 8 refs, 3 tabs

  14. Characterizing and understanding the climatic determinism of high- to low-frequency variations in precipitation in northwestern France using a coupled wavelet multiresolution/statistical downscaling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massei, Nicolas; Dieppois, Bastien; Hannah, David; Lavers, David; Fossa, Manuel; Laignel, Benoit; Debret, Maxime

    2017-04-01

    Geophysical signals oscillate over several time-scales that explain different amount of their overall variability and may be related to different physical processes. Characterizing and understanding such variabilities in hydrological variations and investigating their determinism is one important issue in a context of climate change, as these variabilities can be occasionally superimposed to long-term trend possibly due to climate change. It is also important to refine our understanding of time-scale dependent linkages between large-scale climatic variations and hydrological responses on the regional or local-scale. Here we investigate such links by conducting a wavelet multiresolution statistical dowscaling approach of precipitation in northwestern France (Seine river catchment) over 1950-2016 using sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature (SST) as indicators of atmospheric and oceanic circulations, respectively. Previous results demonstrated that including multiresolution decomposition in a statistical downscaling model (within a so-called multiresolution ESD model) using SLP as large-scale predictor greatly improved simulation of low-frequency, i.e. interannual to interdecadal, fluctuations observed in precipitation. Building on these results, continuous wavelet transform of simulated precipiation using multiresolution ESD confirmed the good performance of the model to better explain variability at all time-scales. A sensitivity analysis of the model to the choice of the scale and wavelet function used was also tested. It appeared that whatever the wavelet used, the model performed similarly. The spatial patterns of SLP found as the best predictors for all time-scales, which resulted from the wavelet decomposition, revealed different structures according to time-scale, showing possible different determinisms. More particularly, some low-frequency components ( 3.2-yr and 19.3-yr) showed a much wide-spread spatial extentsion across the Atlantic

  15. Framework for Probabilistic Projections of Energy-Relevant Streamflow Indicators under Climate Change Scenarios for the U.S.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wagener, Thorsten [Univ. of Bristol (United Kingdom); Mann, Michael [Pennsylvania State Univ., State College, PA (United States); Crane, Robert [Pennsylvania State Univ., State College, PA (United States)

    2014-04-29

    This project focuses on uncertainty in streamflow forecasting under climate change conditions. The objective is to develop easy to use methodologies that can be applied across a range of river basins to estimate changes in water availability for realistic projections of climate change. There are three major components to the project: Empirical downscaling of regional climate change projections from a range of Global Climate Models; Developing a methodology to use present day information on the climate controls on the parameterizations in streamflow models to adjust the parameterizations under future climate conditions (a trading-space-for-time approach); and Demonstrating a bottom-up approach to establishing streamflow vulnerabilities to climate change. The results reinforce the need for downscaling of climate data for regional applications, and further demonstrates the challenges of using raw GCM data to make local projections. In addition, it reinforces the need to make projections across a range of global climate models. The project demonstrates the potential for improving streamflow forecasts by using model parameters that are adjusted for future climate conditions, but suggests that even with improved streamflow models and reduced climate uncertainty through the use of downscaled data, there is still large uncertainty is the streamflow projections. The most useful output from the project is the bottom-up vulnerability driven approach to examining possible climate and land use change impacts on streamflow. Here, we demonstrate an inexpensive and easy to apply methodology that uses Classification and Regression Trees (CART) to define the climate and environmental parameters space that can produce vulnerabilities in the system, and then feeds in the downscaled projections to determine the probability top transitioning to a vulnerable sate. Vulnerabilities, in this case, are defined by the end user.

  16. Our knowledge on climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Turkenburg, W.C.; Van Wijk, A.J.M.

    1991-01-01

    A workshop was organised to evaluate and discuss the report 'Scientific Assessment of Climate Change (1990)' of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Thirty prominent Dutch experts in the field attended the workshop. The introductions and discussions held on our knowledge of climatic change as a result of the growth of the greenhouse effect caused by the emission of greenhouse gases from human actions are presented. It is concluded that the IPCC-report shows in a clear and balanced way the certainties and uncertainties in our knowledge of climate change. There is a large chance that the earth's climate will change considerably, if the policy remains unamended. 15 figs., 2 apps

  17. Climate change research - Danish contributions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joergensen, A.M.K.; Fenger, J.; Halsnaes, K.

    2001-01-01

    The book describes a series of Danish scientific and technical studies. They broadly reflect the fields and disciplines embraced by assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), but with an emphasis on natural sciences (i.e. climate investigations and impact studies). After the general introduction, that presents the issue and gives a summary of the content of the book, the chapters are organised in four parts: 1. The Climate System and Climate Variations. 2. Climate Change Scenarios. 3. Impacts of Climate Change. 4. Policy Aspects. Each chapter is indexed separately. (LN)

  18. Uncertainty in Simulating Wheat Yields Under Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Jones, J. W.; Hatfield, J. W.; Ruane, A. C.; Boote, K. J.; Thornburn, P. J.; Rotter, R. P.; Cammarano, D.; hide

    2013-01-01

    Projections of climate change impacts on crop yields are inherently uncertain1. Uncertainty is often quantified when projecting future greenhouse gas emissions and their influence on climate2. However, multi-model uncertainty analysis of crop responses to climate change is rare because systematic and objective comparisons among process-based crop simulation models1,3 are difficult4. Here we present the largest standardized model intercomparison for climate change impacts so far. We found that individual crop models are able to simulate measured wheat grain yields accurately under a range of environments, particularly if the input information is sufficient. However, simulated climate change impacts vary across models owing to differences in model structures and parameter values. A greater proportion of the uncertainty in climate change impact projections was due to variations among crop models than to variations among downscaled general circulation models. Uncertainties in simulated impacts increased with CO2 concentrations and associated warming. These impact uncertainties can be reduced by improving temperature and CO2 relationships in models and better quantified through use of multi-model ensembles. Less uncertainty in describing how climate change may affect agricultural productivity will aid adaptation strategy development and policymaking.

  19. Adapting California’s ecosystems to a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elizabeth Chornesky,; David Ackerly,; Paul Beier,; Frank Davis,; Flint, Lorraine E.; Lawler, Joshua J.; Moyle, Peter B.; Moritz, Max A.; Scoonover, Mary; Byrd, Kristin B.; Alvarez, Pelayo; Heller, Nicole E.; Micheli, Elisabeth; Weiss, Stuart

    2017-01-01

    Significant efforts are underway to translate improved understanding of how climate change is altering ecosystems into practical actions for sustaining ecosystem functions and benefits. We explore this transition in California, where adaptation and mitigation are advancing relatively rapidly, through four case studies that span large spatial domains and encompass diverse ecological systems, institutions, ownerships, and policies. The case studies demonstrate the context specificity of societal efforts to adapt ecosystems to climate change and involve applications of diverse scientific tools (e.g., scenario analyses, downscaled climate projections, ecological and connectivity models) tailored to specific planning and management situations (alternative energy siting, wetland management, rangeland management, open space planning). They illustrate how existing institutional and policy frameworks provide numerous opportunities to advance adaptation related to ecosystems and suggest that progress is likely to be greatest when scientific knowledge is integrated into collective planning and when supportive policies and financing enable action.

  20. Climate Change Impacts at Department of Defense Installations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-06-16

    Most stakeholders were not comfortable addressing issues related to 8 FIGURE 2 (a) Model Domain Used for the WRF Model Dynamic Downscaling...and NARCCAP-WRFG at 50 km and (b) between PRISM and WRF at 12 km during all months in 1980–2004 (The student t-test result at the 0.005 [and lower...Alavez, A., T. Cavazos, and C. Turrent, 2014: Land–sea thermal contrast and intensity of the North American Monsoon under climate change conditions

  1. Climate Change and Crop Exposure to Adverse Weather: Changes to Frost Risk and Grapevine Flowering Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mosedale, Jonathan R; Wilson, Robert J; Maclean, Ilya M D

    2015-01-01

    The cultivation of grapevines in the UK and many other cool climate regions is expected to benefit from the higher growing season temperatures predicted under future climate scenarios. Yet the effects of climate change on the risk of adverse weather conditions or events at key stages of crop development are not always captured by aggregated measures of seasonal or yearly climates, or by downscaling techniques that assume climate variability will remain unchanged under future scenarios. Using fine resolution projections of future climate scenarios for south-west England and grapevine phenology models we explore how risks to cool-climate vineyard harvests vary under future climate conditions. Results indicate that the risk of adverse conditions during flowering declines under all future climate scenarios. In contrast, the risk of late spring frosts increases under many future climate projections due to advancement in the timing of budbreak. Estimates of frost risk, however, were highly sensitive to the choice of phenology model, and future frost exposure declined when budbreak was calculated using models that included a winter chill requirement for dormancy break. The lack of robust phenological models is a major source of uncertainty concerning the impacts of future climate change on the development of cool-climate viticulture in historically marginal climatic regions.

  2. The Ecological consequences of global climate change

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Woodward, F. I

    1992-01-01

    ... & land use - modeling potential responses of vegetation to global climate change - effects of climatic change on population dynamics of crop pests - responses of soils to climate change - predicting...

  3. Future Climate Change Impact Assessment of River Flows at Two Watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ercan, A.; Ishida, K.; Kavvas, M. L.; Chen, Z. R.; Jang, S.; Amin, M. Z. M.; Shaaban, A. J.

    2016-12-01

    Impacts of climate change on the river flows under future climate change conditions were assessed over Muda and Dungun watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia by means of a coupled regional climate model and a physically-based hydrology model utilizing an ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations. Coarse resolution GCMs' future projections covering a wide range of emission scenarios were dynamically downscaled to 6 km resolution over the study area. Hydrologic simulations of the two selected watersheds were carried out at hillslope-scale and at hourly increments.

  4. Living with climatic change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beltzner, K [ed.

    1976-03-01

    The effects of global warming on economies and societies are discussed. The history of past climate changes in North America is summarized, ranging from short period variations to changes over centuries and millenia. To aid in forecasting the effects of future climatic variation, historical episodes that have had well documented socio-economic effects are examined. These episodes include: the variability period of 1895-1905 characterized by cool climate, wet periods in the northwestern great plains, sustained drought in the Pacific northwest, extreme cold in the gulf states, and the Galveston flood; the midwestern drought of 1933-1937, characterized by drought on the great plains, very cold snowy winters, hot summers, and massive soil erosion; 1935-36, characterized by a very cold winter and a very hot summer; the Mexican drought of 1937-45, characterized by recurrent drought in Mexico; the variable period of 1950-1958, characterized by Pacific coast drought, drought and flood on the great plains, cold and warm winters and summers, wheat rust, coastal storms and forest fires; the Eastern urban drought of 1961-66 characterized by sustained cold drought in eastern North America; the sea ice period of 1964-65 and 1971-72, characterized by heavy sea ice; snowfall period of 1970-74 characterized by heavy winter snowfalls and a late, wet spring; and the global interdependence period of 1972 characterized by cold winters in Canada and USSR, drought in Asia, the Sahel, Australia, central America, floods in North Africa, high ocean surface temperatures off Peru, and unusually cold weather in the corn belt. 33 refs., 15 figs., 7 tabs.

  5. Climate change research in Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dawson, K.

    1994-01-01

    The current consensus on climatic change in Canada is briefly summarized, noting the results of modelling of the effects of a doubling of atmospheric CO 2 , the nonuniformity of climate change across the country, the uncertainties in local responses to change, and the general agreement that 2-4 degrees of warming will occur for each doubling of CO 2 . Canadian government response includes programs aimed at reducing the uncertainties in the scientific understanding of climate change and in the socio-economic response to such change. Canadian climate change programs include participation in large-scale experiments on such topics as heat transport in the ocean, and sources and sinks of greenhouse gases; development of next-generation climate models; studying the social and economic effects of climate change in the Great Lakes Basin and Mackenzie River Basin; investigation of paleoclimates; and analysis of climate data for long-term trends

  6. Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn

    2013-01-01

    . This absence of an agreement calls for adaptation to climate change. Emphasis should be put on buildings, as they play a vital economic and social role in society and are vulnerable to climate change. Therefore, the building stock deserves its own policy and implementation plans as well as tools that enable...... adequate and cost-efficient adaptation to climate change. This paper explains the need for climate change adaptation of the building stock and suggests a pattern for a strategic approach to how to reach the climate change adaptation needed. The suggested and presented need of a strategic approach is based...... on three main initiatives consisting of the need to examine the potential impacts of climate change on the building stock, the need to assess and develop a roadmap of current and future adaptation measures that can withstand the effects of climate change, and the need to engage relevant stakeholders...

  7. Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn

    2014-01-01

    . This absence of an agreement calls for adaptation to climate change. Emphasis should be put on buildings, as they play a vital economic and social role in society and are vulnerable to climate change. Therefore, the building stock deserves its own policy and implementation plans as well as tools that enable...... adequate and cost-efficient adaptation to climate change. This paper explains the need for climate change adaptation of the building stock and suggests a pattern for a strategic approach to how to reach the climate change adaptation needed. The suggested and presented need of a strategic approach is based...... on three main initiatives consisting of the need to examine the potential impacts of climate change on the building stock, the need to assess and develop a roadmap of current and future adaptation measures that can withstand the effects of climate change, and the need to engage relevant stakeholders...

  8. Integrated Assessment of Climate Change, Land-Use Changes, and Regional Carbon Dynamics in United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mu, J. E.; Sleeter, B. M.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

    2015-12-01

    The fact that climate change is likely to accelerate throughout this century means that climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture will need to adapt increasingly to climate change. This fact also means that understanding the potential for agricultural adaptation, and how it could come about, is important for ongoing technology investments in the public and private sectors, for infrastructure investments, and for the various policies that address agriculture directly or indirectly. This paper is an interdisciplinary study by collaborating with climate scientist, agronomists, economists, and ecologists. We first use statistical models to estimate impacts of climate change on major crop yields (wheat, corn, soybeans, sorghum, and cotton) and predict changes in crop yields under future climate condition using downscaled climate projections from CMIP5. Then, we feed the predicted yield changes to a partial equilibrium economic model (FASOM-GHG) to evaluate economic and environmental outcomes including changes in land uses (i.e., cropland, pastureland, forest land, urban land and land for conservation) in United States. Finally, we use outputs from FASOM-GHG as inputs for the ST-SIM ecological model to simulate future carbon dynamics through changes in land use under future climate conditions and discuss the rate of adaptation through land-use changes. Findings in this paper have several merits compared to previous findings in the literature. First, we add economic components to the carbon calculation. It is important to include socio-economic conditions when calculating carbon emission and/or carbon sequestration because human activities are the major contribution to atmosphere GHG emissions. Second, we use the most recent downscaled climate projections from CMIP5 to capture uncertainties from climate model projections. Instead of using all GCMs, we select five GCMs to represent the ensemble. Third, we use a bottom-up approach because we start from micro-level data

  9. Financing for climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cooper, Richard N.

    2012-01-01

    This paper argues that the 2009 pledge of $100 billion in 2020 by rich countries for mitigation and adaptation should not be used for mitigation by commercial firms in developing countries, since that would artificially create competitive advantage for such firms and provoke protectionist reactions in the rich countries where firms must bear the costs of mitigation, thereby undermining the world trading system. The costs of heating the earth's surface should be borne by all emitters, just as the price of copper and other scarce resources is paid by all users, rich or poor. That will still leave scope for rich country help in adaptation to climate change and in bringing to fruition new technologies to reduce emissions. - Highlights: ► Slowing climate change significantly cannot occur without the participation of the largest emitters among developing countries. ► The cost of GHG mitigation must be the same for all competing firms, wherever they are located. ► The world trading system is seriously at risk in the face of a poorly designed system for global mitigation of greenhouse gases. ► No significantly emitting firm, anywhere, public or private, should be protected from the incentive to reduce its emissions. ► Higher prices for fossil fuels need not reduce national growth rates in consuming countries.

  10. Downscaled projections of Caribbean coral bleaching that can inform conservation planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Hooidonk, Ruben; Maynard, Jeffrey Allen; Liu, Yanyun; Lee, Sang-Ki

    2015-09-01

    Projections of climate change impacts on coral reefs produced at the coarse resolution (~1°) of Global Climate Models (GCMs) have informed debate but have not helped target local management actions. Here, projections of the onset of annual coral bleaching conditions in the Caribbean under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 are produced using an ensemble of 33 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5 models and via dynamical and statistical downscaling. A high-resolution (~11 km) regional ocean model (MOM4.1) is used for the dynamical downscaling. For statistical downscaling, sea surface temperature (SST) means and annual cycles in all the GCMs are replaced with observed data from the ~4-km NOAA Pathfinder SST dataset. Spatial patterns in all three projections are broadly similar; the average year for the onset of annual severe bleaching is 2040-2043 for all projections. However, downscaled projections show many locations where the onset of annual severe bleaching (ASB) varies 10 or more years within a single GCM grid cell. Managers in locations where this applies (e.g., Florida, Turks and Caicos, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic, among others) can identify locations that represent relative albeit temporary refugia. Both downscaled projections are different for the Bahamas compared to the GCM projections. The dynamically downscaled projections suggest an earlier onset of ASB linked to projected changes in regional currents, a feature not resolved in GCMs. This result demonstrates the value of dynamical downscaling for this application and means statistically downscaled projections have to be interpreted with caution. However, aside from west of Andros Island, the projections for the two types of downscaling are mostly aligned; projected onset of ASB is within ±10 years for 72% of the reef locations. © 2015 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Regional Climate Change and Development of Public Health Decision Aids

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hegedus, A. M.; Darmenova, K.; Grant, F.; Kiley, H.; Higgins, G. J.; Apling, D.

    2011-12-01

    According to the World Heath Organization (WHO) climate change is a significant and emerging threat to public health, and changes the way we must look at protecting vulnerable populations. Worldwide, the occurrence of some diseases and other threats to human health depend predominantly on local climate patterns. Rising average temperatures, in combination with changing rainfall patterns and humidity levels, alter the lifecycle and regional distribution of certain disease-carrying vectors, such as mosquitoes, ticks and rodents. In addition, higher surface temperatures will bring heat waves and heat stress to urban regions worldwide and will likely increase heat-related health risks. A growing body of scientific evidence also suggests an increase in extreme weather events such as floods, droughts and hurricanes that can be destructive to human health and well-being. Therefore, climate adaptation and health decision aids are urgently needed by city planners and health officials to determine high risk areas, evaluate vulnerable populations and develop public health infrastructure and surveillance systems. To address current deficiencies in local planning and decision making with respect to regional climate change and its effect on human health, our research is focused on performing a dynamical downscaling with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to develop decision aids that translate the regional climate data into actionable information for users. WRF model is initialized with the Max Planck Institute European Center/Hamburg Model version 5 (ECHAM5) General Circulation Model simulations forced with the Special Report on Emissions (SRES) A1B emissions scenario. Our methodology involves development of climatological indices of extreme weather, quantifying the risk of occurrence of water/rodent/vector-borne diseases as well as developing various heat stress related decision aids. Our results indicate that the downscale simulations provide the necessary

  12. Climate Change. Solutions for Australia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coleman, T.; Hoegh-Guldberg, O.; Karoly, D.; Lowe, I.; McMichael, T.; Mitchell, C.; Pearman, G.; Scaife, P.; Reynolds, A. (eds.)

    2004-06-01

    The Australian Climate Group was convened in late 2003 by WWF Australia and the Insurance Australia Group (IAG) in response to the increasing need for action on climate change in Australia. This group proposes a set of solutions to lower the risk that climate change will reach a dangerous level.

  13. Politics of climate change belief

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Donald Trump's actions during the election and his first weeks as US president-elect send a strong message about his belief in climate change, or lack thereof. However, these actions may reflect polarization of climate change beliefs, not climate mitigation behaviour.

  14. Downscaling biogeochemistry in the Benguela eastern boundary current

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machu, E.; Goubanova, K.; Le Vu, B.; Gutknecht, E.; Garçon, V.

    2015-06-01

    Dynamical downscaling is developed to better predict the regional impact of global changes in the framework of scenarios. As an intermediary step towards this objective we used the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) to downscale a low resolution coupled atmosphere-ocean global circulation model (AOGCM; IPSL-CM4) for simulating the recent-past dynamics and biogeochemistry of the Benguela eastern boundary current. Both physical and biogeochemical improvements are discussed over the present climate scenario (1980-1999) under the light of downscaling. Despite biases introduced through boundary conditions (atmospheric and oceanic), the physical and biogeochemical processes in the Benguela Upwelling System (BUS) have been improved by the ROMS model, relative to the IPSL-CM4 simulation. Nevertheless, using coarse-resolution AOGCM daily atmospheric forcing interpolated on ROMS grids resulted in a shifted SST seasonality in the southern BUS, a deterioration of the northern Benguela region and a very shallow mixed layer depth over the whole regional domain. We then investigated the effect of wind downscaling on ROMS solution. Together with a finer resolution of dynamical processes and of bathymetric features (continental shelf and Walvis Ridge), wind downscaling allowed correction of the seasonality, the mixed layer depth, and provided a better circulation over the domain and substantial modifications of subsurface biogeochemical properties. It has also changed the structure of the lower trophic levels by shifting large offshore areas from autotrophic to heterotrophic regimes with potential important consequences on ecosystem functioning. The regional downscaling also improved the phytoplankton distribution and the southward extension of low oxygen waters in the Northern Benguela. It allowed simulating low oxygen events in the northern BUS and highlighted a potential upscaling effect related to the nitrogen irrigation from the productive BUS towards the tropical

  15. Climatic changes of extreme precipitation in Denmark from 1872 to 2100

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia

    of climate change impacts from anthropogenic effects can be established based on projections of daily precipitation. These estimates have then been further downscaled to enable urban pluvial inundation calculations using different statistical downscaling and extreme value analysis techniques. . From...... of precipitation extremes. The objective is to establish cities that are resilient to pluvial floods by means of a gradual upgrading of the drainage capacity in combination with a structured risk management approach. Using the regional climate model (RCM) data repositories from PRUDENCE and ENSEMBLES, estimates....... These results are important for the extrapolation to future events. Currently efforts are dedicated to constructing similar models based on outputs from climate models, but the models are complicated due to the fact that the correlation structure of high-resolution precipitation in the climate models deviates...

  16. Influence of climate change on flood magnitude and seasonality in the Arga River catchment in Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garijo, Carlos; Mediero, Luis

    2018-04-01

    Climate change projections suggest that extremes, such as floods, will modify their behaviour in the future. Detailed catchment-scale studies are needed to implement the European Union Floods Directive and give recommendations for flood management and design of hydraulic infrastructure. In this study, a methodology to quantify changes in future flood magnitude and seasonality due to climate change at a catchment scale is proposed. Projections of 24 global climate models are used, with 10 being downscaled by the Spanish Meteorological Agency (Agencia Estatal de Meteorología, AEMET) and 14 from the EURO-CORDEX project, under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, from the Fifth Assessment Report provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Downscaled climate models provided by the AEMET were corrected in terms of bias. The HBV rainfall-runoff model was selected to simulate the catchment hydrological behaviour. Simulations were analysed through both annual maximum and peaks-over-threshold (POT) series. The results show a decrease in the magnitude of extreme floods for the climate model projections downscaled by the AEMET. However, results for the climate model projections downscaled by EURO-CORDEX show differing trends, depending on the RCP. A small decrease in the flood magnitude was noticed for the RCP 4.5, while an increase was found for the RCP 8.5. Regarding the monthly seasonality analysis performed by using the POT series, a delay in the flood timing from late-autumn to late-winter is identified supporting the findings of recent studies performed with observed data in recent decades.

  17. Climate change mitigation through adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hof, Anouschka R.; Dymond, Caren C.; Mladenoff, David J.

    2017-01-01

    Climate change is projected to have negative implications for forest ecosystems and their dependent communities and industries. Adaptation studies of forestry practices have focused on maintaining the provisioning of ecosystem services; however, those practices may have implications for climate

  18. Climate Change and Poverty Reduction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Simon

    2011-08-15

    Climate change will make it increasingly difficult to achieve and sustain development goals. This is largely because climate effects on poverty remain poorly understood, and poverty reduction strategies do not adequately support climate resilience. Ensuring effective development in the face of climate change requires action on six fronts: investing in a stronger climate and poverty evidence base; applying the learning about development effectiveness to how we address adaptation needs; supporting nationally derived, integrated policies and programmes; including the climate-vulnerable poor in developing strategies; and identifying how mitigation strategies can also reduce poverty and enable adaptation.

  19. Changing heathlands in a changing climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ransijn, Johannes

    Atmospheric CO2 concentrations and temperatures are rising and precipitation regimes are changing at global scale. How ecosystem will be affected by global climatic change is dependent on the responses of plants and plant communities. This thesis focuses on how climate change affects heathland...... plant communities. Many heathlands have shifted from dwarf shrub dominance to grass dominance and climatic change might affect the competitive balance between dwarf shrubs and grasses. We looked at heathland vegetation dynamics and heathland plant responses to climatic change at different spatial...... between C. vulgaris and D. flexuosa in the same climate change experiment and 5) a study where we compared the responses of shrubland plant communities to experimental warming and recurrent experimental droughts in seven climate change experiments across Europe. Heathland vegetation dynamics are slow...

  20. Climate changes and biodiversity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bertelsmeier, C.

    2011-01-01

    As some people forecast an average temperature increase between 1 and 3.5 degrees by the end of the century, with higher increases under high latitudes (it could reach 8 degrees in some regions of Canada), other changes will occur: precipitations, sea level rise, reductions in polar ice, extreme climatic events, glacier melting, and so on. The author discusses how these changes will impact biodiversity as they will threat habitat and living conditions of many species. Some studies assess a loss of 15 to 37 per cent of biodiversity by 2050. Moreover, physiology is influenced by temperature: for some species, higher temperatures favour the development of female embryos, or the increase of their population, or may result in an evolution of their reproduction strategy. Life rhythm will also change, for plants as well as for animals. Species will keep on changing their distribution area, but some others will not be able to and are therefore threatened. Finally, as the evolutions concern their vectors, some diseases will spread in new regions

  1. Climate change convention

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, D.

    1992-01-01

    Principles that guide Canada's Green Plan with respect to global warming are outlined. These include respect for nature, meeting environmental goals in an economically beneficial manner, efficient use of resources, shared responsibilities, federal leadership, and informed decision making. The policy side of the international Framework Convention on Climate Change is then discussed and related to the Green Plan. The Convention has been signed by 154 nations and has the long-term objective of stabilizing anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at levels that prevent dangerous interference with the climate system. Some of the Convention's commitments toward achieving that objective are only applicable to the developed countries. Five general areas of commitment are emissions reductions, assistance to developing countries, reporting requirements, scientific and socioeconomic research, and education. The most controversial area is that of limiting emissions. The Convention has strong measures for public accountability and is open to future revisions. Canada's Green Plan represents one country's response to the Convention commitments, including a national goal to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions at the 1990 level by the year 2000

  2. Uncertainties in downscaled relative humidity for a semi-arid region ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    variables are extracted from the (1) National Centers for Environmental Prediction ... and (2) simulations of the third generation Canadian Coupled Global Climate ... Ef, MAE and P. Cumulative distribution functions were prepared from the ... Climate change; downscaling; hydroclimatology; relative humidity; multi-step linear ...

  3. Formulating and testing a method for perturbing precipitation time series to reflect anticipated climatic changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørup, Hjalte Jomo Danielsen; Georgiadis, Stylianos; Gregersen, Ida Bülow

    2017-01-01

    Urban water infrastructure has very long planning horizons, and planning is thus very dependent on reliable estimates of the impacts of climate change. Many urban water systems are designed using time series with a high temporal resolution. To assess the impact of climate change on these systems......, similarly high-resolution precipitation time series for future climate are necessary. Climate models cannot at their current resolutions provide these time series at the relevant scales. Known methods for stochastic downscaling of climate change to urban hydrological scales have known shortcomings...... in constructing realistic climate-changed precipitation time series at the sub-hourly scale. In the present study we present a deterministic methodology to perturb historical precipitation time series at the minute scale to reflect non-linear expectations to climate change. The methodology shows good skill...

  4. Projections of the Ganges-Brahmaputra precipitation: downscaled from GCM predictors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pervez, Md Shahriar; Henebry, Geoffrey M.

    2014-01-01

    Downscaling Global Climate Model (GCM) projections of future climate is critical for impact studies. Downscaling enables use of GCM experiments for regional scale impact studies by generating regionally specific forecasts connecting global scale predictions and regional scale dynamics. We employed the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) to downscale 21st century precipitation for two data-sparse hydrologically challenging river basins in South Asia—the Ganges and the Brahmaputra. We used CGCM3.1 by Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis version 3.1 predictors in downscaling the precipitation. Downscaling was performed on the basis of established relationships between historical Global Summary of Day observed precipitation records from 43 stations and National Center for Environmental Prediction re-analysis large scale atmospheric predictors. Although the selection of predictors was challenging during the set-up of SDSM, they were found to be indicative of important physical forcings in the basins. The precipitation of both basins was largely influenced by geopotential height: the Ganges precipitation was modulated by the U component of the wind and specific humidity at 500 and 1000 h Pa pressure levels; whereas, the Brahmaputra precipitation was modulated by the V component of the wind at 850 and 1000 h Pa pressure levels. The evaluation of the SDSM performance indicated that model accuracy for reproducing precipitation at the monthly scale was acceptable, but at the daily scale the model inadequately simulated some daily extreme precipitation events. Therefore, while the downscaled precipitation may not be the suitable input to analyze future extreme flooding or drought events, it could be adequate for analysis of future freshwater availability. Analysis of the CGCM3.1 downscaled precipitation projection with respect to observed precipitation reveals that the precipitation regime in each basin may be significantly impacted by climate change

  5. Climate change and marine life

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Richardson, Anthony J.; Brown, Christopher J.; Brander, Keith

    2012-01-01

    A Marine Climate Impacts Workshop was held from 29 April to 3 May 2012 at the US National Center of Ecological Analysis and Synthesis in Santa Barbara. This workshop was the culmination of a series of six meetings over the past three years, which had brought together 25 experts in climate change...... ecology, analysis of large datasets, palaeontology, marine ecology and physical oceanography. Aims of these workshops were to produce a global synthesis of climate impacts on marine biota, to identify sensitive habitats and taxa, to inform the current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC......) process, and to strengthen research into ecological impacts of climate change...

  6. Indications of climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-04-01

    The earth's annual mean global temperature increased by around 0,6 C during the 20 century, with wide regional differences. Even if solar activity has played some part in the mean temperature rise and some greenhouse gases are present naturally in the atmosphere, enhancing of the greenhouse effect due to the human activities is responsible for a large and increasing part of the observed warming. The work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change confirms the future increase under all scenarios. Depending on the efforts made by mankind to limit greenhouse gases emissions, the global mean temperature in 2100 could be between 1,4 and 5,8 C higher than in 2000. (A.L.B.)

  7. A climate of change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Figueres Olsen, J.M.; Figueres, C.

    2000-01-01

    Global climate change has ceased to be strictly an environmental threat, lurking in the future. Its potential impacts could well make it the greatest social and economic challenge that humanity will have to face in the coming century. The first is competition. An energy revolution is now in the making, with advanced new technologies such as fuel cells, photovoltaics, wind turbines and flywheels entering the market. The reason why we moved beyond the horse and buggy a hundred years ago was not because we ran out of hay. Similarly, there is no doubt that the planet still has impressive oil reserves. However, as was the case when the oil era first emerged, those industries that successfully incorporate the new technologies will be well positioned to succeed economically in the 21 st century

  8. Potential global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1994-01-01

    Global economic integration and growth contribute much to the construction of energy plants, vehicles and other industrial products that produces carbon emission and in effect cause the destruction of the environment. A coordinated policy and response worldwide to curb emissions and to effect global climate change must be introduced. Improvement in scientific understanding is required to monitor how much emission reduction is necessary. In the near term, especially in the next seven years, sustained research and development for low carbon or carbon-free energy is necessary. Other measures must also be introduced, such as limiting the use of vehicles, closing down inefficient power plants, etc. In the long term, the use of the electric car, use solar energy, etc. is required. Reforestation must also be considered to absorb large amounts of carbon in the atmosphere

  9. Ethics and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abel, O.; Bard, E.; Berger, A.; Besnier, J.M.; Guesnerie, R.; Serres, M.

    2009-01-01

    Faced with climate change what is the position of scientists, of economists and of political decision makers? And the one of philosophers, of moralists, and of theologians? Finally, what is the position of anyone of us? This question of ethical aspect has been rarely tackled in France so far. Prepared after a colloquium held in Paris in 2009, this book combines scientifical, philosophical, moral and theological perspectives accessible to anyone. It stresses on the novelty and urgency of the ethical thought concerning a question having a strong impact of the humanity future, and more particularly on the future of the most vulnerable of us. If the human being is capable to mobilize himself collectively for a universal cause, he can stay on individualistic positions as well, in particular when he has to care of the fate of the generations to come. This book is a philosophical-scientifical thought which aims at bringing together four main views on this issue. (J.S.)

  10. Forest and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    After having recalled the challenges the French forest has to face, and a brief overview of the status of forests in the world, this report proposes an overview of actions which are implemented to strengthen the carbon sequestration role of forests, at the international level and in France. It discusses the distribution of carbon, the forest carbon stocks (in the world, Europe and France), the actions against climate change, the costs and financing of the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in the forest sector. It comments the status of international negotiations and how forests are taken into account. It presents the French forest and wood sector (characteristics of the forest in metropolitan France and overseas, wood as material and as energy). It recalls the commitment of the Grenelle de l'Environnement, and indicates the current forest studies

  11. Competitiveness and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baron, R.

    2006-01-01

    The author addresses the relationship between competitiveness and climate policy beyond the issue of emission quota trading, and with taking into account links between different activities. For some sectors, demand may depend on measures undertaken to reduce emissions in the transport and building sectors. According to the author, these interactions could transform the industry on a middle term, more than the required technical changes aimed at the reduction of emissions. After a detailed analysis on these issues, this paper discusses the results of several studies dealing with the relationship between environmental regulation and competitiveness, and with global assessments of carbon leakages. Then, the author discusses the European directive which introduces the Emission Trading Scheme (ETS)

  12. Climate change policy position

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-11-01

    The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) is a firm believer in the need to take action to mitigate the risks associated with climate change, and that clear government policy is called for. The principles of sustainable development must guide this policy development effort. The initiatives required to address greenhouse gas emissions over both the short and long term must be carefully considered, and it is up to industries to ensure their production efficiency and emission intensity. Promoting improved performance of industries in Canada and developing technology that can be deployed internationally for larger global effects represents Canada's best contribution to progress on greenhouse gas emissions. The increase in energy demand along with increases in population and economic growth have contributed to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions despite improved energy efficiency in industry. Significant damage to the economy will result if Canada is to meet its commitment under the Kyoto Protocol, forcing the country to buy large quantities of foreign credits instead of using those funds for increased research and development. CAPP indicated that an effective plan must be: balanced, equitable, responsible, competitive, focused on technology and innovation, and based on agreements on sectoral plans. Each of these principles were discussed, followed by the fundamentals of approach for upstream oil and gas. The framework for climate change policy was described as well as the elements of a sector plan. CAPP wants to work with all levels of government on an appropriate plan for Canada, that considers our unique circumstances. Canada can play a significant role on the international stage by properly implementing the policy position proposed by the CAPP without unnecessary risks to the economy. refs

  13. Our climate change actions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-05-01

    One of the main tools utilized by the Canadian government to encourage the private sector and other organizations to monitor, report and implement measures for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is the Climate Change Voluntary Challenge and Registry (VCR), a program supported by several industry leaders in the oil and gas sector, such as the Canadian Energy Pipeline Association (CEPA). Financial resources and human efforts have expanded for the past seven years (since 1995) by the transmission pipeline companies with the aim of continuously reducing the emissions of greenhouse gas which have an impact on climate change. The successes achieved by member companies of CEPA are described in this document, resulting in limitations to the growth of greenhouse gas emissions by players in the sector. The three types of greenhouse gas emissions produced by transmission pipelines, carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, and the process by which they are produced, are explained. The high growth in emissions by transmission pipelines is due to the higher amounts of energy required to move increasing volumes of natural gas. Some of the successes achieved by companies in direct emissions in the sector are: advances in inventory accuracy, greenhouse gas audits, measuring fugitive emissions, reducing emissions from fossil fuel combustion, state-of-the-art technology, energy efficiency, computer modelling, improving operational efficiency and replacing equipment. In indirect emissions, the measures implemented include efficiency of electricity use and helping consumers save. Using waste heat to create electricity, and offsets through cogeneration are measures that contribute to the successes in innovation

  14. Climate Change Mitigation A Balanced Approach to Climate Change

    CERN Document Server

    2012-01-01

    This book provides a fresh and innovative perspective on climate change policy. By emphasizing the multiple facets of climate policy, from mitigation to adaptation, from technological innovation and diffusion to governance issues, it contains a comprehensive overview of the economic and policy dimensions of the climate problem. The keyword of the book is balance. The book clarifies that climate change cannot be controlled by sacrificing economic growth and many other urgent global issues. At the same time, action to control climate change cannot be delayed, even though gradually implemented. Therefore, on the one hand climate policy becomes pervasive and affects all dimensions of international policy. On the other hand, climate policy cannot be too ambitious: a balanced approach between mitigation and adaptation, between economic growth and resource management, between short term development efforts and long term innovation investments, should be adopted. I recommend its reading. Carlo Carraro, President, Ca�...

  15. Preparing for climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holdgate, M

    1989-01-01

    There is a distinct probability that humankind is changing the climate and at the same time raising the sea level of the world. The most plausible projections we have now suggest a rise in mean world temperature of between 1 degree Celsius and 2 degrees Celsius by 2030--just 40 years hence. This is a bigger change in a smaller period than we know of in the experience of the earth's ecosystems and human societies. It implies that by 2030 the earth will be warmer than at any time in the past 120,000 years. In the same period, we are likely to see a rise of 15-30 centimeters in sea level, partly due to the melting of mountain glaciers and partly to the expansion of the warmer seas. This may not seem much--but it comes on top of the 12-centimeter rise in the past century and we should recall that over 1/2 the world's population lives in zones on or near coasts. A quarter meter rise in sea level could have drastic consequences for countries like the Maldives or the Netherlands, where much of the land lies below the 2-meter contour. The cause of climate change is known as the 'greenhouse effect'. Greenhouse glass has the property that it is transparent to radiation coming in from the sun, but holds back radiation to space from the warmed surfaces inside the greenhouse. Certain gases affect the atmosphere in the same way. There are 5 'greenhouse gases' and we have been roofing ourselves with them all: carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere have increased 25% above preindustrial levels and are likely to double within a century, due to tropical forest clearance and especially to the burning of increasing quantities of coal and other fossil fuels; methane concentrations are now twice their preindustrial levels as a result of releases from agriculture; nitrous oxide has increased due to land clearance for agriculture, use of fertilizers, and fossil fuel combustion; ozone levels near the earth's surface have increased due mainly to pollution from motor vehicles; and

  16. Vulnerability of birds to climate change in California's Sierra Nevada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodney B. Siegel

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In a rapidly changing climate, effective bird conservation requires not only reliable information about the current vulnerability of species of conservation concern, but also credible projections of their future vulnerability. Such projections may enable managers to preempt or reduce emerging climate-related threats through appropriate habitat management. We used NatureServe's Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI to predict vulnerability to climate change of 168 bird species that breed in the Sierra Nevada mountains of California, USA. The CCVI assesses species-specific exposure and sensitivity to climate change within a defined geographic area, through the integration of (a species' range maps, (b information about species' natural history traits and ecological relationships, (c historic and current climate data, and (d spatially explicit climate change projections. We conducted the assessment under two different downscaled climate models with divergent projections about future precipitation through the middle of the 21st century. Assessments differed relatively little under the two climate models. Of five CCVI vulnerability ranking categories, only one species, White-tailed Ptarmigan (Lagopus leucura, received the most vulnerable rank, Extremely Vulnerable. No species received the second-highest vulnerability ranking, Highly Vulnerable. Sixteen species scored as Moderately Vulnerable using one or both climate models: Common Merganser (Mergus merganser, Osprey (Pandion haliaetus, Bald Eagle (Haliaeetus leucocephalus, Northern Goshawk (Accipiter gentilis, Peregrine Falcon (Falco peregrinus, Prairie Falcon (Falco mexicanus, Spotted Sandpiper (Actitis macularius, Great Gray Owl (Strix nebulosa, Black Swift (Cypseloides niger, Clark's Nutcracker (Nucifraga columbiana, American Dipper (Cinclus mexicanus, Swainson's Thrush (Catharus ustulatus, American Pipit (Anthus rubescens, Gray-crowned Rosy-Finch (Leucosticte tephrocotis, Pine Grosbeak

  17. The Inuit and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fenge, T.

    2001-12-31

    Marked climate change has been forecast for regions in high latitudes by global climate models presented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Observations and reports of significant alterations to the natural environment of Canada's north have been reported by Inuit and other indigenous peoples using their traditional ecological knowledge as a reference. Global climate change appears to be the cause for the changes noted. Many aspects of climate change need to be addressed, such as research, outreach, impacts, adaptations and international negotiations. Based on the strong partnership that had been developed between the Inuit and four federal agencies, three territorial governments and four indigenous people's organizations in support of the Northern Contaminants Program, Inuit are now seeking a partnership with the federal government to address the issues mentioned above concerning climate change. refs., 1 tab.

  18. Regional reanalysis without local data: Exploiting the downscaling paradigm

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Storch, Hans; Feser, Frauke; Geyer, Beate; Klehmet, Katharina; Li, Delei; Rockel, Burkhardt; Schubert-Frisius, Martina; Tim, Nele; Zorita, Eduardo

    2017-08-01

    This paper demonstrates two important aspects of regional dynamical downscaling of multidecadal atmospheric reanalysis. First, that in this way skillful regional descriptions of multidecadal climate variability may be constructed in regions with little or no local data. Second, that the concept of large-scale constraining allows global downscaling, so that global reanalyses may be completed by additions of consistent detail in all regions of the world. Global reanalyses suffer from inhomogeneities. However, their large-scale componenst are mostly homogeneous; Therefore, the concept of downscaling may be applied to homogeneously complement the large-scale state of the reanalyses with regional detail—wherever the condition of homogeneity of the description of large scales is fulfilled. Technically, this can be done by dynamical downscaling using a regional or global climate model, which's large scales are constrained by spectral nudging. This approach has been developed and tested for the region of Europe, and a skillful representation of regional weather risks—in particular marine risks—was identified. We have run this system in regions with reduced or absent local data coverage, such as Central Siberia, the Bohai and Yellow Sea, Southwestern Africa, and the South Atlantic. Also, a global simulation was computed, which adds regional features to prescribed global dynamics. Our cases demonstrate that spatially detailed reconstructions of the climate state and its change in the recent three to six decades add useful supplementary information to existing observational data for midlatitude and subtropical regions of the world.

  19. Global warming and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-10-01

    A panel discussion was held to discuss climate change. Six panelists made presentations that summarized ozone depletion and climate change, discussed global responses, argued against the conventional scientific and policy dogmas concerning climate change, examined the effects of ultraviolet radiation on phytoplankton, examined the effects of carbon taxes on Canadian industry and its emissions, and examined the political and strategic aspects of global warming. A question session followed the presentations. Separate abstracts have been prepared for the six presentations

  20. Navigating SA's climate change legislation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dickey, Suzanne

    2006-01-01

    It is proposed that there should be a legislation to address climate change and Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Bill. South Australian Government Greenhouse Strategy and climate change legislation in light of the far-reaching implications this legislation could have on clients, who face the impacts of climate change in the business and natural environment. It is a commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in South Australia by 2050 to 60 per cent of 1990 levels

  1. Climate change, environment and development

    OpenAIRE

    Okereke, Chukwumerije; Massaquoi, Abu-Bakar S.

    2017-01-01

    Climate change, a quintessential environmental problem, is generally recognised as the most important development challenge in the 21st century (IPCC, 2014). In addition to acknowledging its many significant direct consequences, climate change is increasingly used to frame discussions on other important global challenges, such as health, energy and food security. This chapter provides understanding of the intricate and complex relationship between climate change, environment and development.

  2. Global change of the climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moharam-nejad, Naser.

    1995-01-01

    Greenhouse effect is defined. greenhouse gases which are capable to produce greenhouse effect is mentioned. The production of greenhouse effects depends on the following factors; The amount of discharge to the atmosphere, Concentration, Life span, stability, Absorption and Emission. The effect of global change of climate on agriculture and living organisms is discussed. Global actions related to climate change and national procedures are described. The aim of climate change convention is given and the important points of convention is also mentioned

  3. Land use and climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Koomen, E.; Moel, de, H.; Steingröver, E.G.; Rooij, van, S.A.M.; Eupen, van, M.

    2012-01-01

    Land use is majorly involved with climate change concerns and this chapter discusses and reviews the interrelationships between the vulnerability, adaptation and mitigation aspects of land use and climate change. We review a number of key studies on climate change issues regarding land productivity, land use and land management (LPLULM), identifying key findings, pointing out research needs, and raising economic/policy questions to ponder. Overall, this chapter goes beyond previous reviews ...

  4. Municipal vulnerability to climate change

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Mambo, Julia

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available South Africa, like the rest of Africa, is considered highly vulnerable to climate change and variability as well as to global change. Climate change is and will continue to be an issue of concern in the development of the country. South Africa faces...

  5. Floods in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Theresa K. Andersen; Marshall J. Shepherd

    2013-01-01

    Atmospheric warming and associated hydrological changes have implications for regional flood intensity and frequency. Climate models and hydrological models have the ability to integrate various contributing factors and assess potential changes to hydrology at global to local scales through the century. This survey of floods in a changing climate reviews flood...

  6. Cinematic climate change, a promising perspective on climate change communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakellari, Maria

    2015-10-01

    Previous research findings display that after having seen popular climate change films, people became more concerned, more motivated and more aware of climate change, but changes in behaviors were short-term. This article performs a meta-analysis of three popular climate change films, The Day after Tomorrow (2005), An Inconvenient Truth (2006), and The Age of Stupid (2009), drawing on research in social psychology, human agency, and media effect theory in order to formulate a rationale about how mass media communication shapes our everyday life experience. This article highlights the factors with which science blends in the reception of the three climate change films and expands the range of options considered in order to encourage people to engage in climate change mitigation actions. © The Author(s) 2014.

  7. Dynamical Downscaling of NASA/GISS ModelE: Continuous, Multi-Year WRF Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otte, T.; Bowden, J. H.; Nolte, C. G.; Otte, M. J.; Herwehe, J. A.; Faluvegi, G.; Shindell, D. T.

    2010-12-01

    The WRF Model is being used at the U.S. EPA for dynamical downscaling of the NASA/GISS ModelE fields to assess regional impacts of climate change in the United States. The WRF model has been successfully linked to the ModelE fields in their raw hybrid vertical coordinate, and continuous, multi-year WRF downscaling simulations have been performed. WRF will be used to downscale decadal time slices of ModelE for recent past, current, and future climate as the simulations being conducted for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report become available. This presentation will focus on the sensitivity to interior nudging within the RCM. The use of interior nudging for downscaled regional climate simulations has been somewhat controversial over the past several years but has been recently attracting attention. Several recent studies that have used reanalysis (i.e., verifiable) fields as a proxy for GCM input have shown that interior nudging can be beneficial toward achieving the desired downscaled fields. In this study, the value of nudging will be shown using fields from ModelE that are downscaled using WRF. Several different methods of nudging are explored, and it will be shown that the method of nudging and the choices made with respect to how nudging is used in WRF are critical to balance the constraint of ModelE against the freedom of WRF to develop its own fields.

  8. Climate change. Climate in Medieval time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradley, Raymond S; Hughes, Malcolm K; Diaz, Henry F

    2003-10-17

    Many papers have referred to a "Medieval Warm Period." But how well defined is climate in this period, and was it as warm as or warmer than it is today? In their Perspective, Bradley et al. review the evidence and conclude that although the High Medieval (1100 to 1200 A.D.) was warmer than subsequent centuries, it was not warmer than the late 20th century. Moreover, the warmest Medieval temperatures were not synchronous around the globe. Large changes in precipitation patterns are a particular characteristic of "High Medieval" time. The underlying mechanisms for such changes must be elucidated further to inform the ongoing debate on natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change.

  9. Climate Change and Forest Disturbances

    Science.gov (United States)

    V. H. Dale; L. A. Joyce; S. McNulty; R. P. Neilson; M. P. Ayres; M. D. Flannigan; P. J. Hanson; L. C. Irland; A. E. Lugo; C. J. Peterson; D. Simberloff; F. J. Swanson; B. J. Stocks; B. M. Wotton

    2001-01-01

    CLIMATE CHANGE CAN AFFECT FORESTS BY ALTERING THE FREQUENCY, INTENSITY, DURATION, AND TIMING OF FIRE, DROUGHT, INTRODUCED SPECIES, INSECT AND PATHOGEN OUTBREAKS, HURRICANES, WINDSTORMS, ICE STORMS, OR LANDSLIDES

  10. The economics of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, T.

    1992-01-01

    Perhaps the most startling aspect of the debate on climate change is the speed with which it has climbed the international political agenda. In 1985, climate change was viewed almost entirely as a scientific issue. Only seven years later, most industrialized countries have made some sort of political pledge to abate their emissions of greenhouse gases over a specific timetable. And earlier this year, 154 countries signed a Framework Convention on Climate Change at the UN Conference on Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro. What is the present 'state of play' in the economics of climate change. And what priorities are now emerging in 'post-Rio' policy. 11 ref

  11. Climate change research in Bulgaria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iotova, A.; Koleva, E.

    1995-01-01

    Climate is traditionally one of the main fields of research interest and objects for study in Bulgaria. Therefore, many investigations on its genesis and specific features are carried out in the past and present. Recently, climate change research appears to be the most actual topic and it is in the centre of climatic studies. A major part of these studies are realized at the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (NIMH) because of its essential role in collection and analysis of the basic climatic data for the country. A brief description of the climate change research at NIMH is presented and the obtained results are summarized

  12. Projecting climate change, drought conditions and crop productivity in Turkey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sen, B.; Topcu, S.; Türkes, M.; Warner, J.F.

    2012-01-01

    This paper focuses on the evaluation of regional climate model simulation for Turkey for the 21st century. A regional climate model, ICTP-RegCM3, with 20 km horizontal resolution, is used to downscale the reference and future climate scenario (IPCC-A2) simulations. Characteristics of droughts as

  13. Modelling Snowmelt Runoff under Climate Change Scenarios in an Ungauged Mountainous Watershed, Northwest China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yonggang Ma

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available An integrated modeling system has been developed for analyzing the impact of climate change on snowmelt runoff in Kaidu Watershed, Northwest China. The system couples Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 (HadCM3 outputs with Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM. The SRM was verified against observed discharge for outlet hydrological station of the watershed during the period from April to September in 2001 and generally performed well for Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (EF and water balance coefficient (RE. The EF is approximately over 0.8, and the water balance error is lower than ± 10%, indicating reasonable prediction accuracy. The Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM was used to downscale coarse outputs of HadCM3, and then the downscaled future climate data were used as inputs of the SRM. Four scenarios were considered for analyzing the climate change impact on snowmelt flow in the Kaidu Watershed. And the results indicated that watershed hydrology would alter under different climate change scenarios. The stream flow in spring is likely to increase with the increased mean temperature; the discharge and peck flow in summer decrease with the decreased precipitation under Scenarios 1 and 2. Moreover, the consideration of the change in cryosphere area would intensify the variability of stream flow under Scenarios 3 and 4. The modeling results provide useful decision support for water resources management.

  14. Climate@Home: Crowdsourcing Climate Change Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, C.; Yang, C.; Li, J.; Sun, M.; Bambacus, M.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change deeply impacts human wellbeing. Significant amounts of resources have been invested in building super-computers that are capable of running advanced climate models, which help scientists understand climate change mechanisms, and predict its trend. Although climate change influences all human beings, the general public is largely excluded from the research. On the other hand, scientists are eagerly seeking communication mediums for effectively enlightening the public on climate change and its consequences. The Climate@Home project is devoted to connect the two ends with an innovative solution: crowdsourcing climate computing to the general public by harvesting volunteered computing resources from the participants. A distributed web-based computing platform will be built to support climate computing, and the general public can 'plug-in' their personal computers to participate in the research. People contribute the spare computing power of their computers to run a computer model, which is used by scientists to predict climate change. Traditionally, only super-computers could handle such a large computing processing load. By orchestrating massive amounts of personal computers to perform atomized data processing tasks, investments on new super-computers, energy consumed by super-computers, and carbon release from super-computers are reduced. Meanwhile, the platform forms a social network of climate researchers and the general public, which may be leveraged to raise climate awareness among the participants. A portal is to be built as the gateway to the climate@home project. Three types of roles and the corresponding functionalities are designed and supported. The end users include the citizen participants, climate scientists, and project managers. Citizen participants connect their computing resources to the platform by downloading and installing a computing engine on their personal computers. Computer climate models are defined at the server side. Climate

  15. Climate change and human health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Warren, John A; Berner, James E; Curtis, Tine

    2005-01-01

    In northern regions, climate change can include changes in precipitation magnitude and frequency, reductions in sea ice extent and thickness, and climate warming and cooling. These changes can increase the frequency and severity of storms, flooding, or erosion; other changes may include drought...... or degradation of permafrost. Climate change can result in damage to sanitation infrastructure resulting in the spread of disease or threatening a community's ability to maintain its economy, geographic location and cultural tradition, leading to mental stress. Through monitoring of some basic indicators...... communities can begin to develop a response to climate change. With this information, planners, engineers, health care professionals and governments can begin to develop approaches to address the challenges related to climate change....

  16. Climate change impact assessment on food security in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ettema, Janneke; Aldrian, Edvin; de Bie, Kees; Jetten, Victor; Mannaerts, Chris

    2013-04-01

    As Indonesia is the world's fourth most populous country, food security is a persistent challenge. The potential impact of future climate change on the agricultural sector needs to be addressed in order to allow early implementation of mitigation strategies. The complex island topography and local sea-land-air interactions cannot adequately be represented in large scale General Climate Models (GCMs) nor visualized by TRMM. Downscaling is needed. Using meteorological observations and a simple statistical downscaling tool, local future projections are derived from state-of-the-art, large-scale GCM scenarios, provided by the CMIP5 project. To support the agriculture sector, providing information on especially rainfall and temperature variability is essential. Agricultural production forecast is influenced by several rain and temperature factors, such as rainy and dry season onset, offset and length, but also by daily and monthly minimum and maximum temperatures and its rainfall amount. A simple and advanced crop model will be used to address the sensitivity of different crops to temperature and rainfall variability, present-day and future. As case study area, Java Island is chosen as it is fourth largest island in Indonesia but contains more than half of the nation's population and dominates it politically and economically. The objective is to identify regions at agricultural risk due to changing patterns in precipitation and temperature.

  17. Scaling Climate Change Communication for Behavior Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, V. C.; Lappé, M.; Flora, J. A.; Ardoin, N. M.; Robinson, T. N.

    2014-12-01

    Ultimately, effective climate change communication results in a change in behavior, whether the change is individual, household or collective actions within communities. We describe two efforts to promote climate-friendly behavior via climate communication and behavior change theory. Importantly these efforts are designed to scale climate communication principles focused on behavior change rather than soley emphasizing climate knowledge or attitudes. Both cases are embedded in rigorous evaluations (randomized controlled trial and quasi-experimental) of primary and secondary outcomes as well as supplementary analyses that have implications for program refinement and program scaling. In the first case, the Girl Scouts "Girls Learning Environment and Energy" (GLEE) trial is scaling the program via a Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) for Troop Leaders to teach the effective home electricity and food and transportation energy reduction programs. The second case, the Alliance for Climate Education (ACE) Assembly Program, is advancing the already-scaled assembly program by using communication principles to further engage youth and their families and communities (school and local communities) in individual and collective actions. Scaling of each program uses online learning platforms, social media and "behavior practice" videos, mastery practice exercises, virtual feedback and virtual social engagement to advance climate-friendly behavior change. All of these communication practices aim to simulate and advance in-person train-the-trainers technologies.As part of this presentation we outline scaling principles derived from these two climate change communication and behavior change programs.

  18. An overview of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masson-Delmotte, V.; Paillard, D.

    2004-01-01

    We describe briefly here the main mechanisms and time scales involved in natural and anthropogenic climate variability, based on quantitative paleo-climatic reconstructions from natural archives and climate model simulations: the large glacial-interglacial cycles of the last million years (the Quaternary), lasting typically a hundred thousand years, triggered by changes in the solar radiation received by the Earth due to its position around the Sun; the century-long climatic changes occurring during last glacial period and triggered by recurrent iceberg discharges of the large northern hemisphere ice caps, massive freshwater flux to the north Atlantic, and changes in the ocean heat transport. We show the strong coupling between past climatic changes and global biogeochemical cycles, namely here atmospheric greenhouse gases. We also discuss the decadal climatic fluctuations during the last thousand years, showing an unprecedented warming attributed to the anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. We show the range of atmospheric greenhouse concentrations forecasted for the end of the 21. century and the climate model predictions for global temperature changes during the 21. century. We also discuss the possible climatic changes at longer time scales involving the possibility of north Atlantic heat transport collapse (possibility of abrupt climate change), and the duration of the current interglacial period. (author)

  19. Impact of climate change on heavy precipitation events of the Mediterranean basin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ricard, D.; Beaulant, A.L.; Deque, M.; Ducrocq, V.; Joly, A.; Joly, B.; Martin, E.; Nuissier, O.; Quintana Segui, P.; Ribes, A.; Sevault, F.; Somot, S.; Boe, J.

    2009-01-01

    A second topic covered by the CYPRIM project aims to characterize the evolution of heavy precipitation events in Mediterranean in the context of climate change. To this end, a continuous climate simulation from 1960 to 2099 has been run using a regional ocean-atmosphere coupled model under IPCC A2 emission scenario. Various techniques of down-scaling, down to the very fine 2 km scale, and methods to highlight synoptic environments favourable to heavy rain, have been used to estimate the impact of climate change on precipitation and hydrology over South-East France, both for the whole autumn season and the heavy rain events. (authors)

  20. Climate change mitigation: comparative assessment of Malaysian and ASEAN scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasiah, Rajah; Ahmed, Adeel; Al-Amin, Abul Quasem; Chenayah, Santha

    2017-01-01

    This paper analyses empirically the optimal climate change mitigation policy of Malaysia with the business as usual scenario of ASEAN to compare their environmental and economic consequences over the period 2010-2110. A downscaling empirical dynamic model is constructed using a dual multidisciplinary framework combining economic, earth science, and ecological variables to analyse the long-run consequences. The model takes account of climatic variables, including carbon cycle, carbon emission, climatic damage, carbon control, carbon concentration, and temperature. The results indicate that without optimal climate policy and action, the cumulative cost of climate damage for Malaysia and ASEAN as a whole over the period 2010-2110 would be MYR40.1 trillion and MYR151.0 trillion, respectively. Under the optimal policy, the cumulative cost of climatic damage for Malaysia would fall to MYR5.3 trillion over the 100 years. Also, the additional economic output of Malaysia will rise from MYR2.1 billion in 2010 to MYR3.6 billion in 2050 and MYR5.5 billion in 2110 under the optimal climate change mitigation scenario. The additional economic output for ASEAN would fall from MYR8.1 billion in 2010 to MYR3.2 billion in 2050 before rising again slightly to MYR4.7 billion in 2110 in the business as usual ASEAN scenario.

  1. Projected large flood event sensitivity to projection selection and temporal downscaling methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Raff, D. [U.S. Dept. of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, Colorado (United States)

    2008-07-01

    Large flood events, that influence regulatory guidelines as well as safety of dams decisions, are likely to be affected by climate change. This talk will evaluate the use of climate projections downscaled and run through a rainfall - runoff model and its influence on large flood events. The climate spatial downscaling is performed statistically and a re-sampling and scaling methodology is used to temporally downscale from monthly to daily signals. The signals are run through a National Weather Service operational rainfall-runoff model to produce 6-hour flows. The flows will be evaluated for changes in large events at look-ahead horizons from 2011 - 2040, 2041 - 2070, and 2071 - 2099. The sensitivity of results will be evaluated with respect to projection selection criteria and re-sampling and scaling criteria for the Boise River in Idaho near Lucky Peak Dam. (author)

  2. Projected large flood event sensitivity to projection selection and temporal downscaling methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raff, D.

    2008-01-01

    Large flood events, that influence regulatory guidelines as well as safety of dams decisions, are likely to be affected by climate change. This talk will evaluate the use of climate projections downscaled and run through a rainfall - runoff model and its influence on large flood events. The climate spatial downscaling is performed statistically and a re-sampling and scaling methodology is used to temporally downscale from monthly to daily signals. The signals are run through a National Weather Service operational rainfall-runoff model to produce 6-hour flows. The flows will be evaluated for changes in large events at look-ahead horizons from 2011 - 2040, 2041 - 2070, and 2071 - 2099. The sensitivity of results will be evaluated with respect to projection selection criteria and re-sampling and scaling criteria for the Boise River in Idaho near Lucky Peak Dam. (author)

  3. Identification of reliable gridded reference data for statistical downscaling methods in Alberta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eum, H. I.; Gupta, A.

    2017-12-01

    Climate models provide essential information to assess impacts of climate change at regional and global scales. However, statistical downscaling methods have been applied to prepare climate model data for various applications such as hydrologic and ecologic modelling at a watershed scale. As the reliability and (spatial and temporal) resolution of statistically downscaled climate data mainly depend on a reference data, identifying the most reliable reference data is crucial for statistical downscaling. A growing number of gridded climate products are available for key climate variables which are main input data to regional modelling systems. However, inconsistencies in these climate products, for example, different combinations of climate variables, varying data domains and data lengths and data accuracy varying with physiographic characteristics of the landscape, have caused significant challenges in selecting the most suitable reference climate data for various environmental studies and modelling. Employing various observation-based daily gridded climate products available in public domain, i.e. thin plate spline regression products (ANUSPLIN and TPS), inverse distance method (Alberta Townships), and numerical climate model (North American Regional Reanalysis) and an optimum interpolation technique (Canadian Precipitation Analysis), this study evaluates the accuracy of the climate products at each grid point by comparing with the Adjusted and Homogenized Canadian Climate Data (AHCCD) observations for precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature over the province of Alberta. Based on the performance of climate products at AHCCD stations, we ranked the reliability of these publically available climate products corresponding to the elevations of stations discretized into several classes. According to the rank of climate products for each elevation class, we identified the most reliable climate products based on the elevation of target points. A web-based system

  4. Climate change, conflict and health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowles, Devin C; Butler, Colin D; Morisetti, Neil

    2015-10-01

    Future climate change is predicted to diminish essential natural resource availability in many regions and perhaps globally. The resulting scarcity of water, food and livelihoods could lead to increasingly desperate populations that challenge governments, enhancing the risk of intra- and interstate conflict. Defence establishments and some political scientists view climate change as a potential threat to peace. While the medical literature increasingly recognises climate change as a fundamental health risk, the dimension of climate change-associated conflict has so far received little attention, despite its profound health implications. Many analysts link climate change with a heightened risk of conflict via causal pathways which involve diminishing or changing resource availability. Plausible consequences include: increased frequency of civil conflict in developing countries; terrorism, asymmetric warfare, state failure; and major regional conflicts. The medical understanding of these threats is inadequate, given the scale of health implications. The medical and public health communities have often been reluctant to interpret conflict as a health issue. However, at times, medical workers have proven powerful and effective peace advocates, most notably with regard to nuclear disarmament. The public is more motivated to mitigate climate change when it is framed as a health issue. Improved medical understanding of the association between climate change and conflict could strengthen mitigation efforts and increase cooperation to cope with the climate change that is now inevitable. © The Royal Society of Medicine.

  5. Climate variability and change

    CERN Document Server

    Grassl, H

    1998-01-01

    Many factors influence climate. The present knowledge concerning the climate relevance of earth orbital parameters, solar luminosity, volcanoes, internal interactions, and human activities will be reported as well as the vulnerability of emission scenarios for given stabilization goals for greenhouse gas concentrations and the main points of the Kyoto Protocol

  6. Ground Water and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Richard G.; Scanlon, Bridget; Doell, Petra; Rodell, Matt; van Beek, Rens; Wada, Yoshihide; Longuevergne, Laurent; Leblanc, Marc; Famiglietti, James S.; Edmunds, Mike; hide

    2013-01-01

    As the world's largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food security will probably intensify under climate change as more frequent and intense climate extremes (droughts and floods) increase variability in precipitation, soil moisture and surface water. Here we critically review recent research assessing the impacts of climate on ground water through natural and human-induced processes as well as through groundwater-driven feedbacks on the climate system. Furthermore, we examine the possible opportunities and challenges of using and sustaining groundwater resources in climate adaptation strategies, and highlight the lack of groundwater observations, which, at present, limits our understanding of the dynamic relationship between ground water and climate.

  7. Climate change refugia as a tool for climate adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change refugia, areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change so as to increase persistence of valued physical, ecological, and cultural resources, are considered as potential adaptation options in the face of anthropogenic climate change. In a collaboration ...

  8. Climate change challenges for SEA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen

    This paper takes a theoretical perspective on the challenges that climate changes pose for SEA. The theoretical framework used is the sociologist Ulrich Beck’s theory of risk society and the aspects that characterise this society. Climate change is viewed as a risk, and the theory is used to derive...

  9. Energy, climate change and sequestration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simioni, M.; Stevens, G.W.

    2007-01-01

    There is now very little debate that the earth's climate is changing, and the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence. Many causes have been postulated and speculation about the eventual outcomes abounds. Whatever eventuates, society will have to adapt to a new and changing climate

  10. Climate change and forest disturbances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Virginia H. Dale; Linda A. Joyce; Steve McNulty; Ronald P. Neilson; Matthew P. Ayres; Michael D. Flannigan; Paul J. Hanson; Lloyd C. Irland; Ariel E. Lugo; Chris J. Peterson; Daniel Simberloff; Frederick J. Swanson; Brian J. Stocks; Michael Wotton

    2001-01-01

    This article examines how eight disturbances influence forest structure, composition, and function, and how climate change may influence the severity, frequency, and magnitude of disturbances to forests. We focus on examples from the United States, although these influences occur worldwide. We also consider options for coping with disturbance under changing climate....

  11. Climate change, responsibility, and justice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamieson, Dale

    2010-09-01

    In this paper I make the following claims. In order to see anthropogenic climate change as clearly involving moral wrongs and global injustices, we will have to revise some central concepts in these domains. Moreover, climate change threatens another value ("respect for nature") that cannot easily be taken up by concerns of global justice or moral responsibility.

  12. Climate indices of Iran under climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    alireza kochaki

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Global warming will affect all climatic variables and particularly rainfall patterns. The purpose of present investigation was to predict climatic parameters of Iran under future climate change and to compare them with the present conditions. For this reason, UKMO General Circulation Model was used for the year 2025 and 2050. By running the model, minimum and maximum monthly temperature and also maximum monthly rainfall for the representative climate stations were calculated and finally the effects of climate change on these variables based on pre-determined scenarios was evaluated. The results showed that averaged over all stations, mean temperature increase for spring in the year 2025 and 2050 will be 3.1 and 3.9, for summer 3.8 and 4.7, for autumn 2.3 and 3 and for winter 2.0 and 2.4 ºC, respectively. This increase will be more pronounced from North to the South and from East to the West parts of the country. Mean decrease in autumn rainfall for the target years of 2025 and 2050 will be 8 and 11 percent, respectively. This decrease is negligible for summer months. Length of dry season for the years 2025 and 2050 will be increased, respectively up to 214 and 223 days due to combined effects of increased temperature and decreased rainfall.

  13. Climate change at the coast: from global to local

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watkinson, A.R.

    2009-01-01

    The IPCC has recently documented substantial changes in the global heat content of the oceans, salinity, sea level, thermal expansion and biogeochemistry. Over the 21. century anticipated climate related changes include: a rise in sea level of up to 0.6 m or more; increases in sea surface temperatures up to 3 deg. C; an intensification of tropical and extra tropical cyclones; larger extreme waves and storm surges; altered precipitation/ run-off; and ocean acidification. The Tyndall Centre has been exploring how to down-scale the global analysis to the local level within the framework of a coastal simulator. The simulator provides information on possible future states of the coast through the 21. Century under a range of climate and socio-economic futures and shoreline management options. It links models within a nested framework, recognizing three scales: (1) global, (2) regional, and (3) local. The linked models describe a range of processes, including marine climate (waves, surges and mean sea level), sand bank morpho-dynamics, wave transformation, shoreline morpho-dynamics, built environment scenarios, ecosystem change, and erosion and flood risk. Analyses from the simulator reinforce conclusions from IPCC WG2: coasts will be exposed to increasing risks over coming decades due to many compounding climate-change factors; the impact of climate change on coasts will be exacerbated by increasing human induced pressures; the unavoidability of sea-level rise even in the longer-term frequently conflicts with present day human development patterns and trends. (author)

  14. Evaluation of the climate change impact on wind resources in Taiwan Strait

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, Tsang-Jung; Chen, Chun-Lung; Tu, Yi-Long; Yeh, Hung-Te; Wu, Yu-Ting

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • We propose a new statistical downscaling framework to evaluate the climate change impact on wind resources in Taiwan Strait. • The statistical model relates Weibull distribution parameters to output of a GCM model and regression coefficients. • Validation of the simulated wind speed distribution presents an acceptable agreement with meteorological data. • Three chosen GCMs show the same tendency that the eastern half of Taiwan Strait stores higher wind resources. - Abstract: A new statistical downscaling framework is proposed to evaluate the climate change impact on wind resources in Taiwan Strait. In this framework, a two-parameter Weibull distribution function is used to estimate the wind energy density distribution in the strait. An empirically statistical downscaling model that relates the Weibull parameters to output of a General Circulation Model (GCM) and regression coefficients is adopted. The regression coefficients are calculated using wind speed results obtained from a past climate (1981–2000) simulation reconstructed by a Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. These WRF-reconstructed wind speed results are validated with data collected at a weather station on an islet inside the strait. The comparison shows that the probability distributions of the monthly wind speeds obtained from WRF-reconstructed and measured wind speed data are in acceptable agreement, with small discrepancies of 10.3% and 7.9% for the shape and scale parameters of the Weibull distribution, respectively. The statistical downscaling framework with output from three chosen GCMs (i.e., ECHAM5, CM2.1 and CGCM2.3.2) is applied to evaluate the wind energy density distribution in Taiwan Strait for three future climate periods of 2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100. The results show that the wind energy density distributions in the future climate periods are higher in the eastern half of Taiwan Strait, but reduce slightly by 3% compared with that in the

  15. SDSM-DC: A smarter approach to downscaling for decision-making? (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilby, R. L.; Dawson, C. W.

    2013-12-01

    General Circulation Model (GCM) output has been used for downscaling and impact assessments for at least 25 years. Downscaling methods raise awareness about risks posed by climate variability and change to human and natural systems. However, there are relatively few instances where these analyses have translated into actionable information for adaptation. One reason is that conventional ';top down' downscaling typically yields very large uncertainty bounds in projected impacts at regional and local scales. Consequently, there are growing calls to use downscaling tools in smarter ways that refocus attention on the decision problem rather than on the climate modelling per se. The talk begins with an overview of various application of the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) over the last decade. This sample offers insights to downscaling practice in terms of regions and sectors of interest, modes of application and adaptation outcomes. The decision-centred rationale and functionality of the latest version of SDSM is then explained. This new downscaling tool does not require GCM input but enables the user to generate plausible daily weather scenarios that may be informed by climate model and/or palaeoenvironmental information. Importantly, the tool is intended for stress-testing adaptation options rather than for exhaustive analysis of uncertainty components. The approach is demonstrated by downscaling multi-basin, multi-elevation temperature and precipitation scenarios for the Upper Colorado River Basin. These scenarios are used alongside other narratives of future conditions that might potential affect the security of water supplies, and for evaluating steps that can be taken to manage these risks.

  16. Climate change: challenges and opportunities for global health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patz, Jonathan A; Frumkin, Howard; Holloway, Tracey; Vimont, Daniel J; Haines, Andrew

    2014-10-15

    Health is inextricably linked to climate change. It is important for clinicians to understand this relationship in order to discuss associated health risks with their patients and to inform public policy. To provide new US-based temperature projections from downscaled climate modeling and to review recent studies on health risks related to climate change and the cobenefits of efforts to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. We searched PubMed and Google Scholar from 2009 to 2014 for articles related to climate change and health, focused on governmental reports, predictive models, and empirical epidemiological studies. Of the more than 250 abstracts reviewed, 56 articles were selected. In addition, we analyzed climate data averaged over 13 climate models and based future projections on downscaled probability distributions of the daily maximum temperature for 2046-2065. We also compared maximum daily 8-hour average ozone with air temperature data taken from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Climate Data Center. By 2050, many US cities may experience more frequent extreme heat days. For example, New York and Milwaukee may have 3 times their current average number of days hotter than 32°C (90°F). High temperatures are also strongly associated with ozone exceedance days, for example, in Chicago, Illinois. The adverse health aspects related to climate change may include heat-related disorders, such as heat stress and economic consequences of reduced work capacity; respiratory disorders, including those exacerbated by air pollution and aeroallergens, such as asthma; infectious diseases, including vectorborne diseases and waterborne diseases, such as childhood gastrointestinal diseases; food insecurity, including reduced crop yields and an increase in plant diseases; and mental health disorders, such as posttraumatic stress disorder and depression, that are associated with natural disasters. Substantial health and economic cobenefits could be

  17. Climate variability and change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Manton, M.

    2006-01-01

    When Australia's climate should not be definite barrier to the population reaching 30 million by 2050, it is recognised that our climate has limited the development of the nation over the past 200 years. Indeed in 1911, based on a comparison of the climate and development between the US and Australia. Griffith Taylor predicted that Australia's population would be 19 million at the end of the 20th century, which is a pretty good 90-year forecast. The climate constraint is not only due to much of the country being semi-arid with an annual rainfall below 400 millimetres, but also due to the large year-to-year variability of rainfall across the country

  18. Impact of Climate Change Effects on Contamination of Cereal Grains with Deoxynivalenol

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van der Fels-Klerx, H J; van Asselt, E D; Madsen, M S

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is expected to aggravate feed and food safety problems of crops; however, quantitative estimates are scarce. This study aimed to estimate impacts of climate change effects on deoxynivalenol contamination of wheat and maize grown in the Netherlands by 2040. Quantitative modelling...... the impacts of climate change effects on food safety, and of considering both direct and indirect effects when assessing climate change impacts on crops and related food safety hazards....... two different global and regional climate model combinations were used. A weather generator was applied for downscaling climate data to local conditions. Crop phenology models and prediction models for DON contamination used, each for winter wheat and grain maize. Results showed that flowering...

  19. Climate change experiments in Hamburg

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gubasch, U [DKRZ, Hamburg (Germany)

    1996-12-31

    Nowadays the anthropogenic climate change is been simulated world wide with a fair number of coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation models (IPCC, 1995). Typical model problems do not only blur the estimates of the anthropogenic climate change, but they also cause errors in the estimates of the natural variability. An accurate representation of the natural variability of the climate system is, however, essential for the detection of the anthropogenic climate change. All model simulations world wide show, even though they differ considerably in their technical details and the experimental setup and the forcing data, similar amplitudes and pattern of the predicted climate change. In the model world it is already at the beginning of the next century possible to detect the anthropogenic climate change in the global mean. If the model results are applied in a `fingerprint analysis`, then it is possible to prove that the climate change during the last 30 years is with a significance of 95 % larger than any other climate change during the last 100 years. The experiments performed in Hamburg show that the experimental conditions are of great importance for the estimate of the future climate. The usual starting point of most of the simulations with present day conditions (1980-1990) is too late, because then a considerable part of the warming since the beginning of the industrialization (ca. 1750) has been neglected. Furthermore it has only recently become clear that the sulphat-aerosols play an important role in the present day climate and in the future climate. The effect of the sulphat aerosols has first been simulated in a number of equilibrium simulations with mixed layer models, but nowadays with globally coupled ocean-atmosphere circulation models

  20. Climate change experiments in Hamburg

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gubasch, U. [DKRZ, Hamburg (Germany)

    1995-12-31

    Nowadays the anthropogenic climate change is been simulated world wide with a fair number of coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation models (IPCC, 1995). Typical model problems do not only blur the estimates of the anthropogenic climate change, but they also cause errors in the estimates of the natural variability. An accurate representation of the natural variability of the climate system is, however, essential for the detection of the anthropogenic climate change. All model simulations world wide show, even though they differ considerably in their technical details and the experimental setup and the forcing data, similar amplitudes and pattern of the predicted climate change. In the model world it is already at the beginning of the next century possible to detect the anthropogenic climate change in the global mean. If the model results are applied in a `fingerprint analysis`, then it is possible to prove that the climate change during the last 30 years is with a significance of 95 % larger than any other climate change during the last 100 years. The experiments performed in Hamburg show that the experimental conditions are of great importance for the estimate of the future climate. The usual starting point of most of the simulations with present day conditions (1980-1990) is too late, because then a considerable part of the warming since the beginning of the industrialization (ca. 1750) has been neglected. Furthermore it has only recently become clear that the sulphat-aerosols play an important role in the present day climate and in the future climate. The effect of the sulphat aerosols has first been simulated in a number of equilibrium simulations with mixed layer models, but nowadays with globally coupled ocean-atmosphere circulation models

  1. Potential climate change impacts on temperate forest ecosystem processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Emily B.; Wythers, Kirk R.; Zhang, Shuxia; Bradford, John B.; Reich, Peter B.

    2013-01-01

    Large changes in atmospheric CO2, temperature and precipitation are predicted by 2100, yet the long-term consequences for carbon, water, and nitrogen cycling in forests are poorly understood. We applied the PnET-CN ecosystem model to compare the long-term effects of changing climate and atmospheric CO2 on productivity, evapotranspiration, runoff, and net nitrogen mineralization in current Great Lakes forest types. We used two statistically downscaled climate projections, PCM B1 (warmer and wetter) and GFDL A1FI (hotter and drier), to represent two potential future climate and atmospheric CO2 scenarios. To separate the effects of climate and CO2, we ran PnET-CN including and excluding the CO2 routine. Our results suggest that, with rising CO2 and without changes in forest type, average regional productivity could increase from 67% to 142%, changes in evapotranspiration could range from –3% to +6%, runoff could increase from 2% to 22%, and net N mineralization could increase 10% to 12%. Ecosystem responses varied geographically and by forest type. Increased productivity was almost entirely driven by CO2 fertilization effects, rather than by temperature or precipitation (model runs holding CO2 constant showed stable or declining productivity). The relative importance of edaphic and climatic spatial drivers of productivity varied over time, suggesting that productivity in Great Lakes forests may switch from being temperature to water limited by the end of the century.

  2. Choosing and using climate change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amy K. Snover,; Nathan J. Mantua,; Littell, Jeremy; Michael A. Alexander,; Michelle M. McClure,; Janet Nye,

    2013-01-01

    Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment.

  3. Adapting agriculture to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howden, S Mark; Soussana, Jean-François; Tubiello, Francesco N; Chhetri, Netra; Dunlop, Michael; Meinke, Holger

    2007-12-11

    The strong trends in climate change already evident, the likelihood of further changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing agricultural adaptation more coherently. There are many potential adaptation options available for marginal change of existing agricultural systems, often variations of existing climate risk management. We show that implementation of these options is likely to have substantial benefits under moderate climate change for some cropping systems. However, there are limits to their effectiveness under more severe climate changes. Hence, more systemic changes in resource allocation need to be considered, such as targeted diversification of production systems and livelihoods. We argue that achieving increased adaptation action will necessitate integration of climate change-related issues with other risk factors, such as climate variability and market risk, and with other policy domains, such as sustainable development. Dealing with the many barriers to effective adaptation will require a comprehensive and dynamic policy approach covering a range of scales and issues, for example, from the understanding by farmers of change in risk profiles to the establishment of efficient markets that facilitate response strategies. Science, too, has to adapt. Multidisciplinary problems require multidisciplinary solutions, i.e., a focus on integrated rather than disciplinary science and a strengthening of the interface with decision makers. A crucial component of this approach is the implementation of adaptation assessment frameworks that are relevant, robust, and easily operated by all stakeholders, practitioners, policymakers, and scientists.

  4. Northern Great Basin Seasonal Lakes: Vulnerability to Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, M.; Eitel, J.

    2017-12-01

    Seasonal alkaline lakes in southeast Oregon, northeast California, and northwest Nevada serve as important habitat for migrating birds utilizing the Pacific Flyway, as well as local plant and animal communities. Despite their ecological importance, and anecdotal suggestions that these lakes are becoming less reliable, little is known about the vulnerability of these lakes to climate change. Our research seeks to understand the vulnerability of Northern Great Basin seasonal lakes to climate change. For this, we will be using historical information from the European Space Agency's Global Surface Water Explorer and the University of Idaho's gridMET climate product, to build a model that allows estimating surface water extent and timing based on climate variables. We will then utilize downscaled future climate projections to model surface water extent and timing in the coming decades. In addition, an unmanned aerial system (UAS) will be utilized at a subset of dried basins to obtain precise 3D bathymetry and calculate water volume hypsographs, a critical factor in understanding the likelihood of water persistence and biogeochemical habitat suitability. These results will be incorporated into decision support tools that land managers can utilize in water conservation, wildlife management, and climate mitigation actions. Future research may pair these forecasts with animal movement data to examine fragmentation of migratory corridors and species-specific impacts.

  5. Climate change with Korea as the center

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Yeon Ok

    1998-04-01

    This book deals with climate change with Korea as the center, which is divided into ten chapters. It explain climate change by human life. The contents of this book are climate change, climate before human period, great ice age of prehistoric period, prehistoric times of last glacial era, climate change in historical era, change during observation time for 100 years, warming period, global environment period, the cause of climate change and climate and human. It has reference and an index.

  6. Inter-comparison of statistical downscaling methods for projection of extreme flow indices across Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa; Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Lawrence, Deborah

    2016-01-01

    The effect of methods of statistical downscaling of daily precipitation on changes in extreme flow indices under a plausible future climate change scenario was investigated in 11 catchments selected from 9 countries in different parts of Europe. The catchments vary from 67 to 6171km2 in size...... catchments to simulate daily runoff. A set of flood indices were derived from daily flows and their changes have been evaluated by comparing their values derived from simulations corresponding to the current and future climate. Most of the implemented downscaling methods project an increase in the extreme...... flow indices in most of the catchments. The catchments where the extremes are expected to increase have a rainfall-dominated flood regime. In these catchments, the downscaling methods also project an increase in the extreme precipitation in the seasons when the extreme flows occur. In catchments where...

  7. Climate change and One Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zinsstag, Jakob; Crump, Lisa; Schelling, Esther; Hattendorf, Jan; Maidane, Yahya Osman; Ali, Kadra Osman; Muhummed, Abdifatah; Umer, Abdurezak Adem; Aliyi, Ferzua; Nooh, Faisal; Abdikadir, Mohammed Ibrahim; Ali, Seid Mohammed; Hartinger, Stella; Mäusezahl, Daniel; de White, Monica Berger Gonzalez; Cordon-Rosales, Celia; Castillo, Danilo Alvarez; McCracken, John; Abakar, Fayiz; Cercamondi, Colin; Emmenegger, Sandro; Maier, Edith; Karanja, Simon; Bolon, Isabelle; de Castañeda, Rafael Ruiz; Bonfoh, Bassirou; Tschopp, Rea; Probst-Hensch, Nicole; Cissé, Guéladio

    2018-06-01

    The journal The Lancet recently published a countdown on health and climate change. Attention was focused solely on humans. However, animals, including wildlife, livestock and pets, may also be impacted by climate change. Complementary to the high relevance of awareness rising for protecting humans against climate change, here we present a One Health approach, which aims at the simultaneous protection of humans, animals and the environment from climate change impacts (climate change adaptation). We postulate that integrated approaches save human and animal lives and reduce costs when compared to public and animal health sectors working separately. A One Health approach to climate change adaptation may significantly contribute to food security with emphasis on animal source foods, extensive livestock systems, particularly ruminant livestock, environmental sanitation, and steps towards regional and global integrated syndromic surveillance and response systems. The cost of outbreaks of emerging vector-borne zoonotic pathogens may be much lower if they are detected early in the vector or in livestock rather than later in humans. Therefore, integrated community-based surveillance of zoonoses is a promising avenue to reduce health effects of climate change.

  8. Socio-Economic Vulnerability to Climate Change in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heberger, M. G.; Cooley, H.; Moore, E.; Garzon, C.

    2011-12-01

    The western United States faces a range of impacts from global climate change, including increases in extreme heat, wildfires, and coastal flooding and erosion; changes are also likely to occur in air quality, water availability, and the spread of infectious diseases. To date, a great deal of research has been done to forecast the physical effects of climate change, while less attention has been given to the factors make different populations more or less vulnerable to harm from such changes. For example, mortality rates from Hurricane Audrey, which struck the coast of Louisiana in 1957, were more than eight times higher among blacks than among whites. While disaster events may not discriminate, impacts on human populations are shaped by "intervening conditions" that determine the human impact of the flood and the specific needs for preparedness, response, and recovery. In this study, we analyze the potential impacts of climate change by using recent downscaled climate model outputs, creating a variety of statistics and visualizations to communicate potential impacts to community groups and decision makers, after several meetings with these groups to ask, "What types of information are most useful to you for planning?" We relate climate impacts to social vulnerability - defined as the intersection of the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of a person or group of people - with a focus on the U.S. state of California. Understanding vulnerability factors and the populations that exhibit these factors are critical for crafting effective climate change policies and response strategies. It is also important to the emerging study of climate justice, which is the concept that no group of people should disproportionately bear the burden of climate impacts or the costs of mitigation and adaptation.

  9. Improvement of downscaled rainfall and temperature across generations over the Western Himalayan region of India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, L.; Dutta, M.; Akhter, J.; Meher, J. K.

    2016-12-01

    It is a challenging task to create station level (local scale) climate change information over the mountainous locations of Western Himalayan Region (WHR) in India because of limited data availability and poor data quality. In the present study, missing values of station data were handled through Multiple Imputation Chained Equation (MICE) technique. Finally 22 numbers of rain gauge and 16 number of temperature station data having continuous record during 1901­2005 and 1969­2009 period respectively were considered as reference stations for developing downscaled rainfall and temperature time series from five commonly available GCMs in the IPCC's different generation assessment reports namely 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th hereafter known as SAR, TAR, AR4 and AR5 respectively. Downscaled models were developed using the combined data from the ERA-interim reanalysis and GCMs historical runs (in spite of forcing were not identical in different generation) as predictor and station level rainfall and temperature as predictands. Station level downscaled rainfall and temperature time series were constructed for five GCMs available in each generation. Regional averaged downscaled time series comprising of all stations was prepared for each model and generation and the downscaled results were compared with observed time series. Finally an Overall Model Improvement Index (OMII) was developed using the downscaling results, which was used to investigate the model improvement across generations as well as the improvement of downscaling results obtained from the Empirical Statistical Downscaling (ESD) methods. In case of temperature, models have improved from SAR to AR5 over the study area. In all most all the GCMs TAR is showing worst performance over the WHR by considering the different statistical indices used in this study. In case of precipitation, no model has shown gradual improvement from SAR to AR5 both for interpolated and downscaled values.

  10. Challenges of climate change. Which climate governance?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vieillefosse, A.; Cros, Ch.

    2007-01-01

    This report deals with the main challenges of climate change, and attempts to answer some questions: what is the temperature increase foreseen by scientific experts? Who will be affected by the consequences of climate change? Are there technologies to reduce emissions? If yes, why are they not diffused? Is it justified to ask developing countries to do something? Are concurrence distortions a real problem? Which are the main sectors where emissions are to be reduced? Are tools developed at the international level efficient? What is the present assessment for the clean development mechanism? What can be thought of technological partnerships developed with the United States? Then, the report comments the present status of international discussions, proposes a brief assessment of the Kyoto protocol ten years after its implementation, and proposes some improvement pathways

  11. Risk communication on climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wardekker, J.A.

    2004-10-01

    For the title study use has been made of available scientific literature, results of new surveys and interviews. In the first part of the study attention is paid to the exchange of information between parties involved in climate change and differences in supply and demand of information. In the second part citizens' views on climate change, problems with communication on climate change, and the resulting consequences and options for communication are dealt with. In this second part also barriers to action that are related or influenced by communication are taken into consideration

  12. Arctic adaptation and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agnew, T.A.; Headley, A.

    1994-01-01

    The amplification of climatic warming in the Arctic and the sensitivity of physical, biological, and human systems to changes in climate make the Arctic particularly vulnerable to climate changes. Large areas of the Arctic permafrost and sea ice are expected to disappear under climate warming and these changes will have considerable impacts on the natural and built environment of the north. A review is presented of some recent studies on what these impacts could be for the permafrost and sea ice environment and to identify linkages with socioeconomic activities. Terrestrial adaptation to climate change will include increases in ground temperature; melting of permafrost with consequences such as frost heave, mudslides, and substantial settlement; rotting of peat contained in permafrost areas, with subsequent emission of CO 2 ; increased risk of forest fire; and flooding of low-lying areas. With regard to the manmade environment, structures that will be affected include buildings, pipelines, highways, airports, mines, and railways. In marine areas, climate change will increase the ice-free period for marine transport operations and thus provide some benefit to the offshore petroleum industry. This benefit will be offset by increased wave height and period, and increased coastal erosion. The offshore industry needs to be particularly concerned with these impacts since the expected design life of industry facilities (30-60 y) is of the same order as the time frame for possible climatic changes. 18 refs., 5 figs

  13. Smallholder Agriculture and Climate Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cohn, Avery S.; Newton, Peter; Dias Bernardes Gil, Juliana; Kuhl, Laura; Samberg, Leah; Ricciardi, Vincent; Manly, Jessica R.; Northrop, Sarah

    2017-01-01

    Hundreds of millions of the world's poorest people directly depend on smallholder farming systems. These people now face a changing climate and associated societal responses. We use mapping and a literature review to juxtapose the climate fate of smallholder systems with that of other agricultural

  14. Climate Change and Health

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    David Gikungu

    ... and river blindness; 4 of the big 7 are zoonoses (Benniston, 2002). ... global burden of disease and premature deaths. ... illnesses a year and more than 150,000 extra deaths. • By 2030, however, the number of climate-related diseases is likely .... What additional public health interventions are likely to reduce the projected.

  15. Coping with climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zheng, Yuan; Byg, Anja

    2014-01-01

    found across villages regarding the degree of perceived sensitivity and responses despite similar exposure to climate extremes. These differences are partly related to the nature of events and varied socio-economic characteristics of households, which influence their vulnerability and ability to cope...

  16. Future southcentral US wildfire probability due to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stambaugh, Michael C.; Guyette, Richard P.; Stroh, Esther D.; Struckhoff, Matthew A.; Whittier, Joanna B.

    2018-01-01

    Globally, changing fire regimes due to climate is one of the greatest threats to ecosystems and society. In this paper, we present projections of future fire probability for the southcentral USA using downscaled climate projections and the Physical Chemistry Fire Frequency Model (PC2FM). Future fire probability is projected to both increase and decrease across the study region of Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. Among all end-of-century projections, change in fire probabilities (CFPs) range from − 51 to + 240%. Greatest absolute increases in fire probability are shown for areas within the range of approximately 75 to 160 cm mean annual precipitation (MAP), regardless of climate model. Although fire is likely to become more frequent across the southcentral USA, spatial patterns may remain similar unless significant increases in precipitation occur, whereby more extensive areas with increased fire probability are predicted. Perhaps one of the most important results is illumination of climate changes where fire probability response (+, −) may deviate (i.e., tipping points). Fire regimes of southcentral US ecosystems occur in a geographic transition zone from reactant- to reaction-limited conditions, potentially making them uniquely responsive to different scenarios of temperature and precipitation changes. Identification and description of these conditions may help anticipate fire regime changes that will affect human health, agriculture, species conservation, and nutrient and water cycling.

  17. Multisite rainfall downscaling and disaggregation in a tropical urban area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Y.; Qin, X. S.

    2014-02-01

    A systematic downscaling-disaggregation study was conducted over Singapore Island, with an aim to generate high spatial and temporal resolution rainfall data under future climate-change conditions. The study consisted of two major components. The first part was to perform an inter-comparison of various alternatives of downscaling and disaggregation methods based on observed data. This included (i) single-site generalized linear model (GLM) plus K-nearest neighbor (KNN) (S-G-K) vs. multisite GLM (M-G) for spatial downscaling, (ii) HYETOS vs. KNN for single-site disaggregation, and (iii) KNN vs. MuDRain (Multivariate Rainfall Disaggregation tool) for multisite disaggregation. The results revealed that, for multisite downscaling, M-G performs better than S-G-K in covering the observed data with a lower RMSE value; for single-site disaggregation, KNN could better keep the basic statistics (i.e. standard deviation, lag-1 autocorrelation and probability of wet hour) than HYETOS; for multisite disaggregation, MuDRain outperformed KNN in fitting interstation correlations. In the second part of the study, an integrated downscaling-disaggregation framework based on M-G, KNN, and MuDRain was used to generate hourly rainfall at multiple sites. The results indicated that the downscaled and disaggregated rainfall data based on multiple ensembles from HadCM3 for the period from 1980 to 2010 could well cover the observed mean rainfall amount and extreme data, and also reasonably keep the spatial correlations both at daily and hourly timescales. The framework was also used to project future rainfall conditions under HadCM3 SRES A2 and B2 scenarios. It was indicated that the annual rainfall amount could reduce up to 5% at the end of this century, but the rainfall of wet season and extreme hourly rainfall could notably increase.

  18. Mitigating the Effects of Climate Change on the Water Resources of the Columbia River Basin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Payne, J.T.; Wood, A.W.; Hamlet, A.F.; Palmer, R.N.; Lettenmaier, D.P. [Department of Civil Engineering, 164 Wilcox Hall, P.O. Box 352700, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195-2700 (United States)

    2004-07-01

    The potential effects of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Columbia River Basin (CRB) were evaluated using simulations from the U.S. Department of Energy and National Center for Atmospheric Research Parallel Climate Model (DOE/NCAR PCM). This study focuses on three climate projections for the 21st century based on a 'business as usual' (BAU) global emissions scenario, evaluated with respect to a control climate scenario based on static 1995 emissions. Time-varying monthly PCM temperature and precipitation changes were statistically downscaled and temporally disaggregated to produce daily forcings that drove a macro-scale hydrologic simulation model of the Columbia River basin at 1/4-degree spatial resolution. For comparison with the direct statistical downscaling approach, a dynamical downscaling approach using a regional climate model (RCM) was also used to derive hydrologic model forcings for 20-year subsets from the PCM control climate (1995-2015) scenario and from the three BAU climate (2040-2060) projections. The statistically downscaled PCM scenario results were assessed for three analysis periods (denoted Periods 1-3: 2010-2039, 2040-2069, 2070-2098) in which changes in annual average temperature were +0.5, +1.3 and +2.1C, respectively, while critical winter season precipitation changes were -3, +5 and +1 percent. For RCM, the predicted temperature change for the 2040-2060 period was +1.2C and the average winter precipitation change was -3 percent, relative to the RCM control climate. Due to the modest changes in winter precipitation, temperature changes dominated the simulated hydrologic effects by reducing winter snow accumulation, thus shifting summer streamflow to the winter. The hydrologic changes caused increased competition for reservoir storage between firm hydropower and instream flow targets developed pursuant to the Endangered Species Act listing of Columbia River salmonids. We examined several alternative

  19. Climate Change and Conceptual Change

    OpenAIRE

    Clark, David Joseph

    2013-01-01

    Global Warming (“GW”) is easily one of the most pressing concerns of our time,and its solution will come about only through a change in human behavior.Compared to the residents of most other nations worldwide, Americans reportlower acceptance of the realities of GW. In order to address this concern in afree society, U.S. residents must be convinced or coerced to take the necessaryactions. In spite of the democratic appeal of education, however, many climatecommunicators appear t...

  20. Natural and anthropogenic climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ko, M.K.W.; Clough, S.A.; Molnar, G.I.; Iacono, M.; Wang, W.C.; State Univ. of New York, Albany, NY

    1992-03-01

    This report consists of two parts: (1) progress for the period 9/1/91--3/31/92 and (2) the plan for the remaining period 4/1/92--8/31/92. The project includes two tasks: atmospheric radiation and improvement of climate models to evaluate the climatic effects of radiation changes. The atmospheric radiation task includes four subtasks: (1) Intercomparison of Radiation Codes in Climate Models (ICRCCM), (2) analysis of the water vapor continuum using line-by-line calculations to develop a parameterization for use in climate models, (3) parameterization of longwave radiation and (4) climate/radiation interactions of desert aerosols. Our effort in this period is focused on the first three subtasks. The improvement of climate models to evaluate the subtasks: (1) general circulation model study and (2) 2- D model development and application

  1. Climate change and water resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Younos, Tamim; Grady, Caitlin A.

    2013-01-01

    This volume presents nine chapters prepared by international authors and highlighting various aspects of climate change and water resources. Climate change models and scenarios, particularly those related to precipitation projection, are discussed and uncertainties and data deficiencies that affect the reliability of predictions are identified. The potential impacts of climate change on water resources (including quality) and on crop production are analyzed and adaptation strategies for crop production are offered. Furthermore, case studies of climate change mitigation strategies, such as the reduction of water use and conservation measures in urban environments, are included. This book will serve as a valuable reference work for researchers and students in water and environmental sciences, as well as for governmental agencies and policy makers.

  2. Climate and the changing Sun

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eddy, J.A.

    1977-01-01

    Long-term changes in the level of solar activity are found in historical records and in fossil radiocarbon in tree-rings. Typical of these changes are the Maunder Minimum (A.D. 1645-1715), the Spoerer Minimum (A.D. 1400-1510), and a Medieval Maximum (c. A.D. 1120-1280). Eighteen such features are identified in the tree-ring radiocarbon record of the past 7500 years and compared with a record of world climate. In every case when long-term solar activity falls, mid-latitude glaciers advance and climate colls; at times of high solar activity glaciers recede and climate warms. It is proposed that changes in the level of solar activity and in climate may have a common cause: slow changes in the solar constant, of about 1% amplitude. (Auth.)

  3. VTrans climate change action plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-06-01

    VTrans is working closely with other state agencies, including the Agency of Natural Resources (ANR) to review and implement the transportation-related recommendations from the 2007 Governors Commission on Climate Change (GCCC) final report. The r...

  4. Climate change and water resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Younos, Tamim [The Cabell Brand Center for Global Poverty and Resource Sustainability Studies, Salem, VA (United States); Grady, Caitlin A. (ed.) [Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States). Ecological Sciences and Engineering Program

    2013-07-01

    This volume presents nine chapters prepared by international authors and highlighting various aspects of climate change and water resources. Climate change models and scenarios, particularly those related to precipitation projection, are discussed and uncertainties and data deficiencies that affect the reliability of predictions are identified. The potential impacts of climate change on water resources (including quality) and on crop production are analyzed and adaptation strategies for crop production are offered. Furthermore, case studies of climate change mitigation strategies, such as the reduction of water use and conservation measures in urban environments, are included. This book will serve as a valuable reference work for researchers and students in water and environmental sciences, as well as for governmental agencies and policy makers.

  5. Cities lead on climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pancost, Richard D.

    2016-04-01

    The need to mitigate climate change opens up a key role for cities. Bristol's year as a Green Capital led to great strides forward, but it also revealed that a creative and determined partnership across cultural divides will be necessary.

  6. Climate Change Negotiations Unscrambling Acronyms

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    1992: UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Rio. Common but differentiated responsibility (Annex I vs. non-Annex 1); Industrialized countries to bear full incremental costs of adjustment by developing countries ...

  7. The Costs of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Jason

    2018-03-01

    This research paper talks about the economic costs of climate change, as well as the costs involved in responding to climate change with alternative fuels. This paper seeks to show that climate change, although seemingly costly in the short run, will both save future generations trillions of dollars and serve as a good economic opportunity. Scientists have long argued that the fate of humanity depends on a shift towards renewable energy. However, this paper will make clear that there is also an economic struggle. By embracing alternative fuels, we will not only lessen the danger and the frequency of these natural disasters but also strengthen the world’s financial state. Although a common argument against responding to climate change is that it is too expensive to make the switch, this research shows that in the future, it will save millions of lives and trillions of dollars. The only question left for policymakers is whether they will grasp this energy source shift.

  8. Climate Change Science Program Collection

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) Collection consists of publications and other resources produced between 2007 and 2009 by the CCSP with the intention of...

  9. Sociology in a Changing Climate

    OpenAIRE

    Elizabeth Shove

    2010-01-01

    This note responds to John Urry's contribution and draws on my own presentation at the BSA Presidential Event on 'How to put 'Society' into Climate Change', held on 8th February 2010 at the British Library.

  10. Climate change and group dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Postmes, Tom

    2015-01-01

    The characteristics and views of people sceptical about climate change have been analysed extensively. A study now confirms that sceptics in the US have some characteristics of a social movement, but shows that the same group dynamics propel believers

  11. Climate change implications for wind power resources in the Northwest United States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sailor, David J.; Smith, Michael; Hart, Melissa

    2008-01-01

    Using statistically downscaled output from four general circulation models (GCMs), we have investigated scenarios of climate change impacts on wind power generation potential in a five-state region within the Northwest United States (Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Washington, and Wyoming). All GCM simulations were extracted from the standardized set of runs created for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Analysis of model runs for the 20th century (20c3m) simulations revealed that the direct output of wind statistics from these models is of relatively poor quality compared with observations at airport weather stations within each state. When the GCM output was statistically downscaled, the resulting estimates of current climate wind statistics are substantially better. Furthermore, in looking at the GCM wind statistics for two IPCC future climate scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES A1B and A2), there was significant disagreement in the direct model output from the four GCMs. When statistical downscaling was applied to the future climate simulations, a more coherent story unfolded related to the likely impact of climate change on the region's wind power resource. Specifically, the results suggest that summertime wind speeds in the Northwest may decrease by 5-10%, while wintertime wind speeds may decrease by relatively little, or possibly increase slightly. When these wind statistics are projected to typical turbine hub heights and nominal wind turbine power curves are applied, the impact of the climate change scenarios on wind power may be as high as a 40% reduction in summertime generation potential. (author)

  12. Social protection and climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johnson, Craig; Bansha Dulal, Hari; Prowse, Martin Philip

    2013-01-01

    This article lays the foundation for this special issue on social protection and climate change, introducing and evaluating the ways in which the individual articles contribute to our understanding of the subject.......This article lays the foundation for this special issue on social protection and climate change, introducing and evaluating the ways in which the individual articles contribute to our understanding of the subject....

  13. Climate Change and Agricultural Vulnerability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fischer, G.; Shah, M.; Van Velthuizen, H.

    2002-08-01

    After the introduction Chapter 2 presents details of the ecological-economic analysis based on the FAO/IIASA agro-ecological zones (AEZ) approach for evaluation of biophysical limitations and agricultural production potentials, and IIASA's Basic Linked System (BLS) for analyzing the world's food economy and trade system. The BLS is a global general equilibrium model system for analyzing agricultural policies and food system prospects in an international setting. BLS views national agricultural systems as embedded in national economies, which interact with each other through trade at the international level. The combination of AEZ and BLS provides an integrated ecological-economic framework for the assessment of the impact of climate change. We consider climate scenarios based on experiments with four General Circulation Models (GCM), and we assess the four basic socioeconomic development pathways and emission scenarios as formulated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its Third Assessment Report. Chapter 3 presents the main AEZ results of the impact of climate change on agriculture. Results comprise environmental constraints to crop agriculture; climate variability and the variability of rain-fed cereal production; changes in potential agricultural land; changes in crop-production patterns; and the impact of climate change on cereal-production potential. Chapter 4 discusses the AEZ-BLS integrated ecological-economic analysis of climate change on the world food system. This includes quantification of scale and location of hunger, international agricultural trade, prices, production, land use, etc. It assesses trends in food production, trade, and consumption, and the impact on poverty and hunger of alternative development pathways and varying levels of climate change. Chapter 5 presents the main conclusions and policy implications of this study

  14. Use of RCM simulations to assess the impact of climate change on wind energy availability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pryor, S.C.; Barthelmie, Rebecca Jane

    2004-01-01

    There is considerable interest in the potential impact of climate change on the feasibility and predictability of renewable energy sources including wind energy. This report presents an application and evaluation of physical (dynamical) downscaling toolsfor examining the impact of climate change...... on near-surface flow and hence wind energy density across northern Europe. It is shown that: - Simulated wind fields using the Rossby Centre coupled Regional Climate Model (RCM) (RCAO) during the control period(1961-1990) exhibit reasonable and realistic features as documented in in situ observations...... and reanalysis data products. - The differences between near-surface wind speed and direction calculated for the control run (January 1, 1961 – December 30, 1990)based on boundary conditions derived from two Global Climate Models (GCM): HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3 are comparable to changes in the climate change...

  15. Fair adaptation to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paavola, Jouni; Adger, W. Neil

    2006-01-01

    This article identifies social justice dilemmas associated with the necessity to adapt to climate change, examines how they are currently addressed by the climate change regime, and proposes solutions to overcome prevailing gaps and ambiguities. We argue that the key justice dilemmas of adaptation include responsibility for climate change impacts, the level and burden sharing of assistance to vulnerable countries for adaptation, distribution of assistance between recipient countries and adaptation measures, and fair participation in planning and making decisions on adaptation. We demonstrate how the climate change regime largely omits responsibility but makes a general commitment to assistance. However, the regime has so far failed to operationalise assistance and has made only minor progress towards eliminating obstacles for fair participation. We propose the adoption of four principles for fair adaptation in the climate change regime. These include avoiding dangerous climate change, forward-looking responsibility, putting the most vulnerable first and equal participation of all. We argue that a safe maximum standard of 400-500 ppm of CO 2 concentrations in the atmosphere and a carbon tax of $20-50 per carbon equivalent ton could provide the initial instruments for operationalising the principles. (author)

  16. Europeans' attitudes towards climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-07-01

    This report presents the results of a survey on Europeans' attitudes towards climate change which was carried out in January and February 2009. The survey focuses on: Citizens' perceptions of climate change in relation to other world problems; Citizens' perceptions of the seriousness of climate change; The extent to which citizens feel informed about climate change - its causes, consequences and ways of fighting it; Citizens' attitudes towards alternative fuels and CO2 emissions; Whether citizens feel that climate change is stoppable or has been exaggerated, and what impact it has on the European economy; Whether citizens have taken personal action to fight climate change. This Eurobarometer survey was carried out by TNS Opinion and Social network between 16 January and 22 February 2009. The interviews were conducted among 26,718 citizens in the 27 Member States of the European Union, the three candidate countries for accession to the European Union (Croatia, Turkey and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia) and in the Turkish Cypriot Community.

  17. Examining the Performance of Statistical Downscaling Methods: Toward Matching Applications to Data Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dixon, K. W.; Lanzante, J. R.; Adams-Smith, D.

    2017-12-01

    Several challenges exist when seeking to use future climate model projections in a climate impacts study. A not uncommon approach is to utilize climate projection data sets derived from more than one future emissions scenario and from multiple global climate models (GCMs). The range of future climate responses represented in the set is sometimes taken to be indicative of levels of uncertainty in the projections. Yet, GCM outputs are deemed to be unsuitable for direct use in many climate impacts applications. GCM grids typically are viewed as being too coarse. Additionally, regional or local-scale biases in a GCM's simulation of the contemporary climate that may not be problematic from a global climate modeling perspective may be unacceptably large for a climate impacts application. Statistical downscaling (SD) of climate projections - a type of post-processing that uses observations to inform the refinement of GCM projections - is often used in an attempt to account for GCM biases and to provide additional spatial detail. "What downscaled climate projection is the best one to use" is a frequently asked question, but one that is not always easy to answer, as it can be dependent on stakeholder needs and expectations. Here we present results from a perfect model experimental design illustrating how SD method performance can vary not only by SD method, but how performance can also vary by location, season, climate variable of interest, amount of projected climate change, SD configuration choices, and whether one is interested in central tendencies or the tails of the distribution. Awareness of these factors can be helpful when seeking to determine the suitability of downscaled climate projections for specific climate impacts applications. It also points to the potential value of considering more than one SD data product in a study, so as to acknowledge uncertainties associated with the strengths and weaknesses of different downscaling methods.

  18. Optimal Operation of Hydropower Reservoirs under Climate Change: The Case of Tekeze Reservoir, Eastern Nile

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fikru Fentaw Abera

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Optimal operation of reservoirs is very essential for water resource planning and management, but it is very challenging and complicated when dealing with climate change impacts. The objective of this paper was to assess existing and future hydropower operation at the Tekeze reservoir in the face of climate change. In this study, a calibrated and validated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT was used to model runoff inflow into the Tekeze hydropower reservoir under present and future climate scenarios. Inflow to the reservoir was simulated using hydro-climatic data from an ensemble of downscaled climate data based on the Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment over African domain (CORDEX-Africa with Coupled Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 simulations under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. Observed and projected inflows to Tekeze hydropower reservoir were used as input to the US Army Corps of Engineer’s Reservoir Evaluation System Perspective Reservoir Model (HEC-ResPRM, a reservoir operation model, to optimize hydropower reservoir release, storage and pool level. Results indicated that climate change has a clear impact on reservoir inflow and showed increase in annual and monthly inflow into the reservoir except in dry months from May to June under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. HEC-ResPRM optimal operation results showed an increase in Tekeze reservoir power storage potential up to 25% and 30% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively. This implies that Tekeze hydropower production will be affected by climate change. This analysis can be used by water resources planners and mangers to develop reservoir operation techniques considering climate change impact to increase power production.

  19. Regional climate projections for the MENA-CORDEX domain: analysis of projected temperature and precipitation changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hänsler, Andreas; Weber, Torsten; Eggert, Bastian; Saeed, Fahad; Jacob, Daniela

    2014-05-01

    Within the CORDEX initiative a multi-model suite of regionalized climate change information will be made available for several regions of the world. The German Climate Service Center (CSC) is taking part in this initiative by applying the regional climate model REMO to downscale global climate projections of different coupled general circulation models (GCMs) for several CORDEX domains. Also for the MENA-CORDEX domain, a set of regional climate change projections has been established at the CSC by downscaling CMIP5 projections of the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) for the scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 with the regional model REMO for the time period from 1950 to 2100 to a horizontal resolution of 0.44 degree. In this study we investigate projected changes in future climate conditions over the domain towards the end of the 21st century. Focus in the analysis is given to projected changes in the temperature and rainfall characteristics and their differences for the two scenarios will be highlighted.

  20. Climatic change: Italian situation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nanni, T.; Prodi, F.

    2008-01-01

    Climate patterns in italy over the last two centuries are reconstructed using a new database of pluviometric and thermometric secular data series performed by the historic climatology group of the ISAC institute of CNR. The series were thoroughly quality checked and homogenized. The analysis shows that in Italy, over the last 200 years, air temperature has increased by about 1 0 C a century. At the same time a decrease in precipitation can be observed, albeit by a little amount and often not significant from a statistical point of view [it

  1. Climate change studies in Estonia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kallaste, Tiit; Kuldna, Piret

    1998-01-01

    The present collection of papers was compiled on the basis of research papers written by Estonian scientists during the United Nations Environment Programme and Global Environment Facility initiated climate change programme Country Case Study on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations Assessments. The Estonian country case study was finally approved by UNEP/GEF in February 1996, practical work started in September. The priorities for Estonia in the study of global climate change impacts and adaptation have been in the following areas of interest: agriculture, water resources, forestry, the Baltic Sea and Estonian coast, also historical climate and socioeconomic background together with the biggest producer of greenhouse gases, the energy sector. Those areas have been studied more carefully during the one and half year period of the project

  2. Projection of future climate changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boucher, Olivier; Dufresne, Jean-Louis; Vial, Jessica; Brun, Eric; Cattiaux, Julien; Chauvin, Fabrice; Salas y Melia, David; Voldoire, Aurore; Bopp, Laurent; Braconnot, Pascale; Ciais, Philippe; Yiou, Pascal; Guilyardi, Eric; Mignot, Juliette; Guivarch, Celine

    2015-01-01

    Climate models provide the opportunity to anticipate how the climate system may change due to anthropogenic activities during the 21. century. Studies are based on numerical simulations that explore the evolution of the mean climate and its variability according to different socio-economic scenarios. We present a selection of results from phase 5 of the Climate model intercomparison project (CMIP5) with an illustrative focus on the two French models that participated to this exercise. We describe the effects of human perturbations upon surface temperature, precipitation, the cryo-sphere, but also extreme weather events and the carbon cycle. Results show a number of robust features, on the amplitude and geographical patterns of the expected changes and on the processes at play in these changes. They also show the limitations of such a prospective exercise and persistent uncertainties on some key aspects. (authors)

  3. CLIMATE CHANGES: CAUSES AND IMPACT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camelia Slave

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Present brings several environmental problems for people. Many of these are closely related, but by far the most important problem is the climate change. In the course of Earth evolution, climate has changed many times, sometimes dramatically. Warmer eras always replaced and were in turn replaced by glacial ones. However, the climate of the past almost ten thousand years has been very stable. During this period human civilization has also developed. In the past nearly 100 years - since the beginning of industrialization - the global average temperature has increased by approx. 0.6 ° C (after IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, faster than at any time in the last 1000 years.

  4. Air Quality and Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colette, A.; Rouil, L.; Bessagnet, B.; Schucht, S.; Szopa, S.; Vautard, R.; Menut, L.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change and air quality are closely related: through the policy measures implemented to mitigate these major environmental threats but also through the geophysical processes that drive them. We designed, developed and implemented a comprehensive regional air quality and climate modeling System to investigate future air quality in Europe taking into account the combined pressure of future climate change and long range transport. Using the prospective scenarios of the last generation of pathways for both climate change (emissions of well mixed greenhouse gases) and air pollutants, we can provide a quantitative view into the possible future air quality in Europe. We find that ozone pollution will decrease substantially under the most stringent scenario but the efforts of the air quality legislation will be adversely compensated by the penalty of global warming and long range transport for the business as usual scenario. For particulate matter, the projected reduction of emissions efficiently reduces exposure levels. (authors)

  5. Acting efficiently on climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Appert, Olivier; Moncomble, Jean-Eudes

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is a major issue. A survey of the utility companies that account for 80% of the world's electric power was released during the 20. climate conference in Lima as part of the World Energy Council' Global Electricity Initiative. It has concluded that all these utilities see climate change as being real and declare that policies for adapting to it are as important as policies for limiting it. Nonetheless, 97% of these utilities think that consumers will refuse to pay more for decarbonized electricity. This is the core problem in the fight against climate change: all agree that the issue is urgent, some agree about what should be done, but none wants to pay

  6. Climate Change and Nuclear Power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jurkovic, I.-A.; Feretic, D.; Debrecin, N.

    2000-01-01

    The 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is one of a series of recent agreements through which countries around the world are banding together to meet the challenge of altering the global climate. In 1997, in respond to the growing public pressure and questions on climate change governments adopted the Kyoto Protocol. The 5th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP5 UNFCCC) was a rather technical and complex conference which focused in particular on the development of a detailed framework for the application of ''flexible mechanisms'' as laid down in the Kyoto Protocol. Young Generation Network as a part of the International Nuclear Forum at COP5 took part in the debate saying that nuclear is the part of the solution. (author)

  7. Climate Change Impacts on North Dakota: Agriculture and Hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirilenko, Andrei; Zhang, Xiaodong; Lim, Yeo Howe; Teng, William L.

    2011-01-01

    North Dakota is one of the principal producers of agricultural commodities in the USA, including over half of the total spring wheat production. While the region includes some of the best agricultural lands in the world, the steep temperature and precipitation gradients also make it one of the most sensitive to climate change. Over the 20th century, both the temperature and the pattern of precipitation in the state have changed; one of the most dramatic examples of the consequences of this change is the Devils Lake flooding. In two studies, we estimated the climate change impacts on crop yields and on the hydrology of the Devils Lake basin. The projections of six GCMs, driven by three SRES scenarios were statistically downscaled for multiple locations throughout the state, for the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s climate. Averaged over all GCMs, there is a small increase in precipitation, by 0.6 - 1.1% in 2020s, 3.1 - 3.5% in 2050s, and 3.0 - 7.6% in 2080s. This change in precipitation varies with the seasons, with cold seasons becoming wetter and warm seasons not changing.

  8. Implications of climate change on hydrological extremes in the Blue Nile basin: A review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meron Teferi Taye

    2015-09-01

    New hydrological insights: The review illustrates some discrepancy among research outputs. For the historical context, this is partially related to the period and length of data analyzed and the failure to consider the influence of multi-decadal oscillations. Consequently, we show that annual cycle of Blue Nile flow has not changed in the past five decades. For the future context, discrepancy is partially attributable to the various and differing climate and hydrological models included and the downscaling techniques applied. The need to prudently consider sources of uncertainty and potential causes of bias in historical trend and climate change impact research is highlighted.

  9. Late Quaternary changes in climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holmgren, K; Karlen, W [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Physical Geography

    1998-12-01

    This review concerns the Quaternary climate with an emphasis on the last 200 000 years. The present state of art in this field is described and evaluated. The review builds on a thorough examination of classic and recent literature. General as well as detailed patterns in climate are described and the forcing factors and feed-back effects are discussed. Changes in climate occur on all time-scales. During more than 90% of the Quaternary period earth has experienced vast ice sheets, i.e. glaciations have been more normal for the period than the warm interglacial conditions we face today. Major changes in climate, such as the 100 000 years glacial/interglacial cycle, are forced by the Milankovitch three astronomical cycles. Because the cycles have different length climate changes on earth do not follow a simple pattern and it is not possible to find perfect analogues of a certain period in the geological record. Recent discoveries include the observation that major changes in climate seem to occur at the same time on both hemispheres, although the astronomical theory implies a time-lag between latitudes. This probably reflects the influence of feed-back effects within the climate system. Another recent finding of importance is the rapid fluctuations that seem to be a normal process. When earth warmed after the last glaciation temperature jumps of up to 10 deg C occurred within less than a decade and precipitation more than doubled within the same time. The forcing factors behind these rapid fluctuations are not well understood but are believed to be a result of major re-organisations in the oceanic circulation. Realizing that nature, on its own, can cause rapid climate changes of this magnitude put some perspective on the anthropogenic global warming debate, where it is believed that the release of greenhouse gases will result in a global warming of a few C. To understand the forcing behind natural rapid climate changes appears as important as to understand the role

  10. Late Quaternary changes in climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmgren, K.; Karlen, W.

    1998-12-01

    This review concerns the Quaternary climate with an emphasis on the last 200 000 years. The present state of art in this field is described and evaluated. The review builds on a thorough examination of classic and recent literature. General as well as detailed patterns in climate are described and the forcing factors and feed-back effects are discussed. Changes in climate occur on all time-scales. During more than 90% of the Quaternary period earth has experienced vast ice sheets, i.e. glaciations have been more normal for the period than the warm interglacial conditions we face today. Major changes in climate, such as the 100 000 years glacial/interglacial cycle, are forced by the Milankovitch three astronomical cycles. Because the cycles have different length climate changes on earth do not follow a simple pattern and it is not possible to find perfect analogues of a certain period in the geological record. Recent discoveries include the observation that major changes in climate seem to occur at the same time on both hemispheres, although the astronomical theory implies a time-lag between latitudes. This probably reflects the influence of feed-back effects within the climate system. Another recent finding of importance is the rapid fluctuations that seem to be a normal process. When earth warmed after the last glaciation temperature jumps of up to 10 deg C occurred within less than a decade and precipitation more than doubled within the same time. The forcing factors behind these rapid fluctuations are not well understood but are believed to be a result of major re-organisations in the oceanic circulation. Realizing that nature, on its own, can cause rapid climate changes of this magnitude put some perspective on the anthropogenic global warming debate, where it is believed that the release of greenhouse gases will result in a global warming of a few C. To understand the forcing behind natural rapid climate changes appears as important as to understand the role

  11. Impact of Future Climate Change on Wheat Production: A Simulated Case for China’s Wheat System

    OpenAIRE

    Dengpan Xiao; Huizi Bai; De Li Liu

    2018-01-01

    With regard to global climate change due to increasing concentration in greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO2), it is important to examine its potential impact on crop development and production. We used statistically-downscaled climate data from 28 Global Climate Models (GCMs) and the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM)–Wheat model to simulate the impact of future climate change on wheat production. Two future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were used for atmos...

  12. Climate change. Managing the risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Swart, R.J.

    1994-01-01

    In order to address the key question if a targeted approach to climate change response is feasible, different aspects of this question are analyzed. First, the scientific and political aspects of different options to determine specific long-term objectives for climate change are evaluated on the basis of the current scientific insights and the experiences over the last 5 years to develop climate objectives. Preliminary directions for such objectives are given. Next, important analytical tools are discussed that can be applied to analyze the different options and their implications in detail. In order to evaluate the implications of mitigation options, strategies that are consistent with the preliminary climate goals are analyzed in the third part. In chapter 2, the concept of long-term environmental goals, derived from critical levels of climate change, is discussed. Also a historical perspective is provided. A new, systematic regionalized and risk-based approach to elaborate the ultimate objective of the Framework Convention on Climate Change is proposed. In chapter 3 scenarios and integrated models are discussed. Central is the description of scenarios that were developed with RlVM's Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE) and the US-EPA's Atmospheric Stabilization Framework (ASF). In chapter 4 potential long-term international emissions control strategies for the different sources and sinks of the most important greenhouse gases are analyzed. Carbon dioxide from energy, carbon dioxide from deforestation, and non-CO 2 greenhouse gases are dealt with subsequently. The dissertation ends with general conclusions and recommendations for the further design of a targeted approach to climate change response, the development of analytical tools to support policy development in the area of climate change, and strategies that are consistent with preliminary long-term environmental goals. 66 figs., 8 tabs., 417 refs., 1 appendix

  13. Confronting climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1990-08-01

    Emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), especially from energy production and use, and their impact on global climate emerged as a major national issue in the United States during the 1980s. As a result, Congress directed the US Department of Energy (DOE) to ask the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering to assess the current state of research and development (R ampersand D) in the United States in alternative energy sources, and to suggest energy R ampersand D strategies involving roles for both the public and private sectors, should the government want to give priority to stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of GHGs. The findings and recommendations of the Committee on Alternative Energy Research and Development Strategies, appointed by the National Research Council in response to Congress's directive, are provided in this report and summarized in this chapter. The energy R ampersand D strategies and actions recommended by the committee are structured to facilitate prudent and decisive responses by the United States, despite uncertainties regarding the effects of GHGs on global climate. 96 refs., 4 figs., 17 tabs

  14. Addressing socioeconomic and political challenges posed by climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernando, Harindra Joseph; Klaic, Zvjezdana Bencetic

    2011-08-01

    NATO Advanced Research Workshop: Climate Change, Human Health and National Security; Dubrovnik, Croatia, 28-30 April 2011; Climate change has been identified as one of the most serious threats to humanity. It not only causes sea level rise, drought, crop failure, vector-borne diseases, extreme events, degradation of water and air quality, heat waves, and other phenomena, but it is also a threat multiplier wherein concatenation of multiple events may lead to frequent human catastrophes and intranational and international conflicts. In particular, urban areas may bear the brunt of climate change because of the amplification of climate effects that cascade down from global to urban scales, but current modeling and downscaling capabilities are unable to predict these effects with confidence. These were the main conclusions of a NATO Advanced Research Workshop (ARW) sponsored by the NATO Science for Peace and Security program. Thirty-two invitees from 17 counties, including leading modelers; natural, political, and social scientists; engineers; politicians; military experts; urban planners; industry analysts; epidemiologists; and health care professionals, parsed the topic on a common platform.

  15. The impact of climate change on hydro-electricity generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Musy, A.; Music, B.; Roy, R.

    2008-01-01

    Hydroelectricity is a clean and renewable energy source for many countries, and is expected to play an important role in future energy supplies. However, the impact of climatic change on hydroelectricity resources is not yet understood. This study provided a critical review of current methods used to determine the potential impacts of climatic change on hydroelectric power production. General circulation models (GCMs) are used to predict future climate conditions under various greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios. Statistical techniques are then used to down-scale GCM outputs to the appropriate scales needed for hydrological models, which are t