Accelerated Aging Experiments for Capacitor Health Monitoring and Prognostics

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This paper discusses experimental setups for health monitoring and prognostics of electrolytic capacitors under nominal operation and accelerated aging conditions....

Degradations analysis and aging modeling for health assessment and prognostics of PEMFC

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jouin, Marine; Gouriveau, Rafael; Hissel, Daniel; Péra, Marie-Cécile; Zerhouni, Noureddine

2016-01-01

Applying prognostics to Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell (PEMFC) stacks is a good solution to help taking actions extending their lifetime. However, it requires a great understanding of the degradation mechanisms and failures occurring within the stack. This task is not simple when applied to a PEMFC due to the different levels (stack - cells - components), the different scales and the multiple causes that lead to degradation. To overcome this problem, this work proposes a methodology dedicated to the setting of a framework and a modeling of the aging for prognostics. This methodology is based on a deep literature review and degradation analyses of PEMFC stacks. This analysis allows defining a proper vocabulary dedicated to PEMFC's prognostics and health management and a clear limited framework to perform prognostics. Then the degradations review is used to select critical components within the stack, and to define their critical failure mechanisms thanks the proposal of new fault trees. The impact of these critical components and mechanisms on the power loss during aging is included to the model for prognostics. This model is finally validated on four datasets with different mission profiles both for health assessment and prognostics. - Highlights: • A proper framework to perform PHM, particularly prognostics, of PEMFC is proposed. • A degradation analysis is performed. • A completely new model of PEMFC degradation is proposed. • SOH estimation is performed with very high coefficients of determination.

Machinery health prognostics: A systematic review from data acquisition to RUL prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Lei, Yaguo; Li, Naipeng; Guo, Liang; Li, Ningbo; Yan, Tao; Lin, Jing

2018-05-01

Machinery prognostics is one of the major tasks in condition based maintenance (CBM), which aims to predict the remaining useful life (RUL) of machinery based on condition information. A machinery prognostic program generally consists of four technical processes, i.e., data acquisition, health indicator (HI) construction, health stage (HS) division, and RUL prediction. Over recent years, a significant amount of research work has been undertaken in each of the four processes. And much literature has made an excellent overview on the last process, i.e., RUL prediction. However, there has not been a systematic review that covers the four technical processes comprehensively. To fill this gap, this paper provides a review on machinery prognostics following its whole program, i.e., from data acquisition to RUL prediction. First, in data acquisition, several prognostic datasets widely used in academic literature are introduced systematically. Then, commonly used HI construction approaches and metrics are discussed. After that, the HS division process is summarized by introducing its major tasks and existing approaches. Afterwards, the advancements of RUL prediction are reviewed including the popular approaches and metrics. Finally, the paper provides discussions on current situation, upcoming challenges as well as possible future trends for researchers in this field.

A Distributed Approach to System-Level Prognostics

Science.gov (United States)

2012-09-01

the end of (useful) life ( EOL ) and/or the remaining useful life (RUL) of components, subsystems, or systems. The prognostics problem itself can be...system state estimate, computes EOL and/or RUL. In this paper, we focus on a model-based prognostics approach (Orchard & Vachtse- vanos, 2009; Daigle...been focused on individual components, and determining their EOL and RUL, e.g., (Orchard & Vachtsevanos, 2009; Saha & Goebel, 2009; Daigle & Goebel

Embedded diagnostic, prognostic, and health management system and method for a humanoid robot

Science.gov (United States)

Barajas, Leandro G. (Inventor); Sanders, Adam M (Inventor); Reiland, Matthew J (Inventor); Strawser, Philip A (Inventor)

2013-01-01

A robotic system includes a humanoid robot with multiple compliant joints, each moveable using one or more of the actuators, and having sensors for measuring control and feedback data. A distributed controller controls the joints and other integrated system components over multiple high-speed communication networks. Diagnostic, prognostic, and health management (DPHM) modules are embedded within the robot at the various control levels. Each DPHM module measures, controls, and records DPHM data for the respective control level/connected device in a location that is accessible over the networks or via an external device. A method of controlling the robot includes embedding a plurality of the DPHM modules within multiple control levels of the distributed controller, using the DPHM modules to measure DPHM data within each of the control levels, and recording the DPHM data in a location that is accessible over at least one of the high-speed communication networks.

Prognostics for Microgrid Components

Science.gov (United States)

Saxena, Abhinav

2012-01-01

Prognostics is the science of predicting future performance and potential failures based on targeted condition monitoring. Moving away from the traditional reliability centric view, prognostics aims at detecting and quantifying the time to impending failures. This advance warning provides the opportunity to take actions that can preserve uptime, reduce cost of damage, or extend the life of the component. The talk will focus on the concepts and basics of prognostics from the viewpoint of condition-based systems health management. Differences with other techniques used in systems health management and philosophies of prognostics used in other domains will be shown. Examples relevant to micro grid systems and subsystems will be used to illustrate various types of prediction scenarios and the resources it take to set up a desired prognostic system. Specifically, the implementation results for power storage and power semiconductor components will demonstrate specific solution approaches of prognostics. The role of constituent elements of prognostics, such as model, prediction algorithms, failure threshold, run-to-failure data, requirements and specifications, and post-prognostic reasoning will be explained. A discussion on performance evaluation and performance metrics will conclude the technical discussion followed by general comments on open research problems and challenges in prognostics.

An integrated framework for online diagnostic and prognostic health monitoring using a multistate deterioration process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moghaddass, Ramin; Zuo, Ming J.

2014-01-01

Efficient asset management is of paramount importance, particularly for systems with costly downtime and failure. As in energy and capital-intensive industries, the economic loss of downtime and failure is huge, the need for a low-cost and integrated health monitoring system has increased significantly over the years. Timely detection of faults and failures through an efficient prognostics and health management (PHM) framework can lead to appropriate maintenance actions to be scheduled proactively to avoid catastrophic failures and minimize the overall maintenance cost of the systems. This paper aims at practical challenges of online diagnostics and prognostics of mechanical systems under unobservable degradation. First, the elements of a multistate degradation structure are reviewed and then a model selection framework is introduced. Important dynamic performance measures are introduced, which can be used for online diagnostics and prognostics. The effectiveness of the result of this paper is demonstrated with a case study on the health monitoring of turbofan engines

Implementation of Remaining Useful Lifetime Transformer Models in the Fleet-Wide Prognostic and Health Management Suite

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Agarwal, Vivek; Lybeck, Nancy J.; Pham, Binh; Rusaw, Richard; Bickford, Randall

2015-01-01

Research and development efforts are required to address aging and reliability concerns of the existing fleet of nuclear power plants. As most plants continue to operate beyond the license life (i.e., towards 60 or 80 years), plant components are more likely to incur age-related degradation mechanisms. To assess and manage the health of aging plant assets across the nuclear industry, the Electric Power Research Institute has developed a web-based Fleet-Wide Prognostic and Health Management (FW-PHM) Suite for diagnosis and prognosis. FW-PHM is a set of web-based diagnostic and prognostic tools and databases, comprised of the Diagnostic Advisor, the Asset Fault Signature Database, the Remaining Useful Life Advisor, and the Remaining Useful Life Database, that serves as an integrated health monitoring architecture. The main focus of this paper is the implementation of prognostic models for generator step-up transformers in the FW-PHM Suite. One prognostic model discussed is based on the functional relationship between degree of polymerization, (the most commonly used metrics to assess the health of the winding insulation in a transformer) and furfural concentration in the insulating oil. The other model is based on thermal-induced degradation of the transformer insulation. By utilizing transformer loading information, established thermal models are used to estimate the hot spot temperature inside the transformer winding. Both models are implemented in the Remaining Useful Life Database of the FW-PHM Suite. The Remaining Useful Life Advisor utilizes the implemented prognostic models to estimate the remaining useful life of the paper winding insulation in the transformer based on actual oil testing and operational data.

Prognostic factors for duration of sick leave due to low-back pain in dutch health care professionals

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Steenstra, Ivan A.; Koopman, Fieke S.; Knol, Dirk L.; Kat, Eric; Bongers, Paulien M.; de Vet, Henrica C. W.; van Mechelen, Willem

2005-01-01

Information on prognostic factors for duration of sick leave due to low-back pain (LBP) is growing. In this prospective cohort study prognostic factors for duration of sick leave and course of disability were identified in a very early stage of sick leave due to LBP in an occupational health care

Prognostics 101: A tutorial for particle filter-based prognostics algorithm using Matlab

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

An, Dawn; Choi, Joo-Ho; Kim, Nam Ho

2013-01-01

This paper presents a Matlab-based tutorial for model-based prognostics, which combines a physical model with observed data to identify model parameters, from which the remaining useful life (RUL) can be predicted. Among many model-based prognostics algorithms, the particle filter is used in this tutorial for parameter estimation of damage or a degradation model. The tutorial is presented using a Matlab script with 62 lines, including detailed explanations. As examples, a battery degradation model and a crack growth model are used to explain the updating process of model parameters, damage progression, and RUL prediction. In order to illustrate the results, the RUL at an arbitrary cycle are predicted in the form of distribution along with the median and 90% prediction interval. This tutorial will be helpful for the beginners in prognostics to understand and use the prognostics method, and we hope it provides a standard of particle filter based prognostics. -- Highlights: ► Matlab-based tutorial for model-based prognostics is presented. ► A battery degradation model and a crack growth model are used as examples. ► The RUL at an arbitrary cycle are predicted using the particle filter

Distributed Health Monitoring System for Reusable Liquid Rocket Engines

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, C. F.; Figueroa, F.; Politopoulos, T.; Oonk, S.

2009-01-01

The ability to correctly detect and identify any possible failure in the systems, subsystems, or sensors within a reusable liquid rocket engine is a major goal at NASA John C. Stennis Space Center (SSC). A health management (HM) system is required to provide an on-ground operation crew with an integrated awareness of the condition of every element of interest by determining anomalies, examining their causes, and making predictive statements. However, the complexity associated with relevant systems, and the large amount of data typically necessary for proper interpretation and analysis, presents difficulties in implementing complete failure detection, identification, and prognostics (FDI&P). As such, this paper presents a Distributed Health Monitoring System for Reusable Liquid Rocket Engines as a solution to these problems through the use of highly intelligent algorithms for real-time FDI&P, and efficient and embedded processing at multiple levels. The end result is the ability to successfully incorporate a comprehensive HM platform despite the complexity of the systems under consideration.

Data Fusion for Enhanced Aircraft Engine Prognostics and Health Management

Science.gov (United States)

Volponi, Al

2005-01-01

Aircraft gas-turbine engine data is available from a variety of sources, including on-board sensor measurements, maintenance histories, and component models. An ultimate goal of Propulsion Health Management (PHM) is to maximize the amount of meaningful information that can be extracted from disparate data sources to obtain comprehensive diagnostic and prognostic knowledge regarding the health of the engine. Data fusion is the integration of data or information from multiple sources for the achievement of improved accuracy and more specific inferences than can be obtained from the use of a single sensor alone. The basic tenet underlying the data/ information fusion concept is to leverage all available information to enhance diagnostic visibility, increase diagnostic reliability and reduce the number of diagnostic false alarms. This report describes a basic PHM data fusion architecture being developed in alignment with the NASA C-17 PHM Flight Test program. The challenge of how to maximize the meaningful information extracted from disparate data sources to obtain enhanced diagnostic and prognostic information regarding the health and condition of the engine is the primary goal of this endeavor. To address this challenge, NASA Glenn Research Center, NASA Dryden Flight Research Center, and Pratt & Whitney have formed a team with several small innovative technology companies to plan and conduct a research project in the area of data fusion, as it applies to PHM. Methodologies being developed and evaluated have been drawn from a wide range of areas including artificial intelligence, pattern recognition, statistical estimation, and fuzzy logic. This report will provide a chronology and summary of the work accomplished under this research contract.

A framework for quantifying net benefits of alternative prognostic models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rapsomaniki, Eleni; White, Ian R; Wood, Angela M

2012-01-01

New prognostic models are traditionally evaluated using measures of discrimination and risk reclassification, but these do not take full account of the clinical and health economic context. We propose a framework for comparing prognostic models by quantifying the public health impact (net benefit......) of the treatment decisions they support, assuming a set of predetermined clinical treatment guidelines. The change in net benefit is more clinically interpretable than changes in traditional measures and can be used in full health economic evaluations of prognostic models used for screening and allocating risk...... reduction interventions. We extend previous work in this area by quantifying net benefits in life years, thus linking prognostic performance to health economic measures; by taking full account of the occurrence of events over time; and by considering estimation and cross-validation in a multiple...

A Survey of Health Management User Objectives Related to Diagnostic and Prognostic Metrics

Science.gov (United States)

Wheeler, Kevin R.; Kurtoglu, Tolga; Poll, Scott D.

2010-01-01

One of the most prominent technical challenges to effective deployment of health management systems is the vast difference in user objectives with respect to engineering development. In this paper, a detailed survey on the objectives of different users of health management systems is presented. These user objectives are then mapped to the metrics typically encountered in the development and testing of two main systems health management functions: diagnosis and prognosis. Using this mapping, the gaps between user goals and the metrics associated with diagnostics and prognostics are identified and presented with a collection of lessons learned from previous studies that include both industrial and military aerospace applications.

A framework for quantifying net benefits of alternative prognostic models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rapsomaniki, E.; White, I.R.; Wood, A.M.; Thompson, S.G.; Feskens, E.J.M.; Kromhout, D.

2012-01-01

New prognostic models are traditionally evaluated using measures of discrimination and risk reclassification, but these do not take full account of the clinical and health economic context. We propose a framework for comparing prognostic models by quantifying the public health impact (net benefit)

A Model-Based Prognostics Approach Applied to Pneumatic Valves

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Within the area of systems health management, the task of prognostics centers on predicting when components will fail. Model-based prognostics exploits domain...

A Model-based Prognostics Approach Applied to Pneumatic Valves

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Within the area of systems health management, the task of prognostics centers on predicting when components will fail. Model-based prognostics exploits domain...

Prognostics and health management design for rotary machinery systems—Reviews, methodology and applications

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Jay; Wu, Fangji; Zhao, Wenyu; Ghaffari, Masoud; Liao, Linxia; Siegel, David

2014-01-01

Much research has been conducted in prognostics and health management (PHM), an emerging field in mechanical engineering that is gaining interest from both academia and industry. Most of these efforts have been in the area of machinery PHM, resulting in the development of many algorithms for this particular application. The majority of these algorithms concentrate on applications involving common rotary machinery components, such as bearings and gears. Knowledge of this prior work is a necessity for any future research efforts to be conducted; however, there has not been a comprehensive overview that details previous and on-going efforts in PHM. In addition, a systematic method for developing and deploying a PHM system has yet to be established. Such a method would enable rapid customization and integration of PHM systems for diverse applications. To address these gaps, this paper provides a comprehensive review of the PHM field, followed by an introduction of a systematic PHM design methodology, 5S methodology, for converting data to prognostics information. This methodology includes procedures for identifying critical components, as well as tools for selecting the most appropriate algorithms for specific applications. Visualization tools are presented for displaying prognostics information in an appropriate fashion for quick and accurate decision making. Industrial case studies are included in this paper to show how this methodology can help in the design of an effective PHM system.

Prognostic Impact of Health Care-Associated Meningitis in Adults with Intracranial Hemorrhage.

Science.gov (United States)

Habib, Onaizah B; Srihawan, Chanunya; Salazar, Lucrecia; Hasbun, Rodrigo

2017-11-01

Health care-associated meningitis and ventriculitis (HCAMV) occurs in adults with intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) and is associated with high rates of morbidity and mortality, but the prognostic impact of this infectious complication in a controlled matched study of ICH is unknown. We conducted a case-control study of adult patients with ICH and HCAMV at a large tertiary care hospital in Houston, Texas, from 2003 to 2016. Cases were defined as patients with ICH and HCAMV as documented by a positive cerebrospinal fluid culture. Controls were defined as patients with ICH without evidence of HCAMV. An adverse clinical outcome was defined as a Glasgow Outcome Scale score of ≤4. This study included 120 patients with ICH; 40 patients also had HCAMV, whereas 80 patients had ICH with no evidence of HCAMV. Cases and controls were appropriately matched by age, Glasgow Coma Scale score, and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score (P > 0.05). Patients with ICH and meningitis had more comorbidities, higher rates of abnormal neurologic examination, hypoglycorrhachia, and elevated cerebrospinal fluid lactate levels (P < 0.05). Adverse clinical outcomes were greater in patients with HCAMV and ICH than in patients with ICH alone (83% vs. 30%; P < 0.001). On logistic regression analysis, independent risk factors associated with an adverse outcome were HCAMV and mechanical ventilation (P < 0.05). HCAMV has a significant prognostic impact in adults with ICH. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prognostics and Health Monitoring: Application to Electric Vehicles

Science.gov (United States)

Kulkarni, Chetan S.

2017-01-01

As more and more autonomous electric vehicles emerge in our daily operation progressively, a very critical challenge lies in accurate prediction of remaining useful life of the systemssubsystems, specifically the electrical powertrain. In case of electric aircrafts, computing remaining flying time is safety-critical, since an aircraft that runs out of power (battery charge) while in the air will eventually lose control leading to catastrophe. In order to tackle and solve the prediction problem, it is essential to have awareness of the current state and health of the system, especially since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To be able to predict the future state of the system, it is also required to possess knowledge of the current and future operations of the vehicle.Our research approach is to develop a system level health monitoring safety indicator either to the pilotautopilot for the electric vehicles which runs estimation and prediction algorithms to estimate remaining useful life of the vehicle e.g. determine state-of-charge in batteries. Given models of the current and future system behavior, a general approach of model-based prognostics can be employed as a solution to the prediction problem and further for decision making.

Accelerated Aging with Electrical Overstress and Prognostics for Power MOSFETs

Science.gov (United States)

Saha, Sankalita; Celaya, Jose Ramon; Vashchenko, Vladislav; Mahiuddin, Shompa; Goebel, Kai F.

2011-01-01

Power electronics play an increasingly important role in energy applications as part of their power converter circuits. Understanding the behavior of these devices, especially their failure modes as they age with nominal usage or sudden fault development is critical in ensuring efficiency. In this paper, a prognostics based health management of power MOSFETs undergoing accelerated aging through electrical overstress at the gate area is presented. Details of the accelerated aging methodology, modeling of the degradation process of the device and prognostics algorithm for prediction of the future state of health of the device are presented. Experiments with multiple devices demonstrate the performance of the model and the prognostics algorithm as well as the scope of application. Index Terms Power MOSFET, accelerated aging, prognostics

Development and Validation of a Lifecycle-based Prognostics Architecture with Test Bed Validation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hines, J. Wesley [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Upadhyaya, Belle [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Sharp, Michael [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Ramuhalli, Pradeep [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Jeffries, Brien [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Nam, Alan [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Strong, Eric [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Tong, Matthew [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Welz, Zachary [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Barbieri, Federico [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Langford, Seth [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Meinweiser, Gregory [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Weeks, Matthew [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)

2014-11-06

On-line monitoring and tracking of nuclear plant system and component degradation is being investigated as a method for improving the safety, reliability, and maintainability of aging nuclear power plants. Accurate prediction of the current degradation state of system components and structures is important for accurate estimates of their remaining useful life (RUL). The correct quantification and propagation of both the measurement uncertainty and model uncertainty is necessary for quantifying the uncertainty of the RUL prediction. This research project developed and validated methods to perform RUL estimation throughout the lifecycle of plant components. Prognostic methods should seamlessly operate from beginning of component life (BOL) to end of component life (EOL). We term this "Lifecycle Prognostics." When a component is put into use, the only information available may be past failure times of similar components used in similar conditions, and the predicted failure distribution can be estimated with reliability methods such as Weibull Analysis (Type I Prognostics). As the component operates, it begins to degrade and consume its available life. This life consumption may be a function of system stresses, and the failure distribution should be updated to account for the system operational stress levels (Type II Prognostics). When degradation becomes apparent, this information can be used to again improve the RUL estimate (Type III Prognostics). This research focused on developing prognostics algorithms for the three types of prognostics, developing uncertainty quantification methods for each of the algorithms, and, most importantly, developing a framework using Bayesian methods to transition between prognostic model types and update failure distribution estimates as new information becomes available. The developed methods were then validated on a range of accelerated degradation test beds. The ultimate goal of prognostics is to provide an accurate assessment for

State of the art and taxonomy of prognostics approaches, trends of prognostics applications and open issues towards maturity at different technology readiness levels

Science.gov (United States)

Javed, Kamran; Gouriveau, Rafael; Zerhouni, Noureddine

2017-09-01

Integrating prognostics to a real application requires a certain maturity level and for this reason there is a lack of success stories about development of a complete Prognostics and Health Management system. In fact, the maturity of prognostics is closely linked to data and domain specific entities like modeling. Basically, prognostics task aims at predicting the degradation of engineering assets. However, practically it is not possible to precisely predict the impending failure, which requires a thorough understanding to encounter different sources of uncertainty that affect prognostics. Therefore, different aspects crucial to the prognostics framework, i.e., from monitoring data to remaining useful life of equipment need to be addressed. To this aim, the paper contributes to state of the art and taxonomy of prognostics approaches and their application perspectives. In addition, factors for prognostics approach selection are identified, and new case studies from component-system level are discussed. Moreover, open challenges toward maturity of the prognostics under uncertainty are highlighted and scheme for an efficient prognostics approach is presented. Finally, the existing challenges for verification and validation of prognostics at different technology readiness levels are discussed with respect to open challenges.

A framework for quantifying net benefits of alternative prognostic models

OpenAIRE

Rapsomaniki, E.; White, I.R.; Wood, A.M.; Thompson, S.G.; Ford, I.

2012-01-01

New prognostic models are traditionally evaluated using measures of discrimination and risk reclassification, but these do not take full account of the clinical and health economic context. We propose a framework for comparing prognostic models by quantifying the public health impact (net benefit) of the treatment decisions they support, assuming a set of predetermined clinical treatment guidelines. The change in net benefit is more clinically interpretable than changes in traditional measure...

Prognostics and Health Management in Nuclear Power Plants: A Review of Technologies and Applications

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Coble, Jamie B.; Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Bond, Leonard J.; Hines, Wes; Upadhyaya, Belle

2012-07-17

This report reviews the current state of the art of prognostics and health management (PHM) for nuclear power systems and related technology currently applied in field or under development in other technological application areas, as well as key research needs and technical gaps for increased use of PHM in nuclear power systems. The historical approach to monitoring and maintenance in nuclear power plants (NPPs), including the Maintenance Rule for active components and Aging Management Plans for passive components, are reviewed. An outline is given for the technical and economic challenges that make PHM attractive for both legacy plants through Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) and new plant designs. There is a general introduction to PHM systems for monitoring, fault detection and diagnostics, and prognostics in other, non-nuclear fields. The state of the art for health monitoring in nuclear power systems is reviewed. A discussion of related technologies that support the application of PHM systems in NPPs, including digital instrumentation and control systems, wired and wireless sensor technology, and PHM software architectures is provided. Appropriate codes and standards for PHM are discussed, along with a description of the ongoing work in developing additional necessary standards. Finally, an outline of key research needs and opportunities that must be addressed in order to support the application of PHM in legacy and new NPPs is presented.

A Survey of Artificial Intelligence for Prognostics

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Integrated Systems Health Management includes as key elements fault detection, fault diagnostics, and failure prognostics. Whereas fault detection and diagnostics...

A Physics-Based Modeling Framework for Prognostic Studies

Science.gov (United States)

Kulkarni, Chetan S.

2014-01-01

Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) methodologies have emerged as one of the key enablers for achieving efficient system level maintenance as part of a busy operations schedule, and lowering overall life cycle costs. PHM is also emerging as a high-priority issue in critical applications, where the focus is on conducting fundamental research in the field of integrated systems health management. The term diagnostics relates to the ability to detect and isolate faults or failures in a system. Prognostics on the other hand is the process of predicting health condition and remaining useful life based on current state, previous conditions and future operating conditions. PHM methods combine sensing, data collection, interpretation of environmental, operational, and performance related parameters to indicate systems health under its actual application conditions. The development of prognostics methodologies for the electronics field has become more important as more electrical systems are being used to replace traditional systems in several applications in the aeronautics, maritime, and automotive fields. The development of prognostics methods for electronics presents several challenges due to the great variety of components used in a system, a continuous development of new electronics technologies, and a general lack of understanding of how electronics fail. Similarly with electric unmanned aerial vehicles, electrichybrid cars, and commercial passenger aircraft, we are witnessing a drastic increase in the usage of batteries to power vehicles. However, for battery-powered vehicles to operate at maximum efficiency and reliability, it becomes crucial to both monitor battery health and performance and to predict end of discharge (EOD) and end of useful life (EOL) events. We develop an electrochemistry-based model of Li-ion batteries that capture the significant electrochemical processes, are computationally efficient, capture the effects of aging, and are of suitable

A self-cognizant dynamic system approach for prognostics and health management

Science.gov (United States)

Bai, Guangxing; Wang, Pingfeng; Hu, Chao

2015-03-01

Prognostics and health management (PHM) is an emerging engineering discipline that diagnoses and predicts how and when a system will degrade its performance and lose its partial or whole functionality. Due to the complexity and invisibility of rules and states of most dynamic systems, developing an effective approach to track evolving system states becomes a major challenge. This paper presents a new self-cognizant dynamic system (SCDS) approach that incorporates artificial intelligence into dynamic system modeling for PHM. A feed-forward neural network (FFNN) is selected to approximate a complex system response which is challenging task in general due to inaccessible system physics. The trained FFNN model is then embedded into a dual extended Kalman filter algorithm to track down system dynamics. A recursive computation technique used to update the FFNN model using online measurements is also derived. To validate the proposed SCDS approach, a battery dynamic system is considered as an experimental application. After modeling the battery system by a FFNN model and a state-space model, the state-of-charge (SoC) and state-of-health (SoH) are estimated by updating the FFNN model using the proposed approach. Experimental results suggest that the proposed approach improves the efficiency and accuracy for battery health management.

Lifecycle Prognostics Architecture for Selected High-Cost Active Components

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

N. Lybeck; B. Pham; M. Tawfik; J. B. Coble; R. M. Meyer; P. Ramuhalli; L. J. Bond

2011-08-01

There are an extensive body of knowledge and some commercial products available for calculating prognostics, remaining useful life, and damage index parameters. The application of these technologies within the nuclear power community is still in its infancy. Online monitoring and condition-based maintenance is seeing increasing acceptance and deployment, and these activities provide the technological bases for expanding to add predictive/prognostics capabilities. In looking to deploy prognostics there are three key aspects of systems that are presented and discussed: (1) component/system/structure selection, (2) prognostic algorithms, and (3) prognostics architectures. Criteria are presented for component selection: feasibility, failure probability, consequences of failure, and benefits of the prognostics and health management (PHM) system. The basis and methods commonly used for prognostics algorithms are reviewed and summarized. Criteria for evaluating PHM architectures are presented: open, modular architecture; platform independence; graphical user interface for system development and/or results viewing; web enabled tools; scalability; and standards compatibility. Thirteen software products were identified and discussed in the context of being potentially useful for deployment in a PHM program applied to systems in a nuclear power plant (NPP). These products were evaluated by using information available from company websites, product brochures, fact sheets, scholarly publications, and direct communication with vendors. The thirteen products were classified into four groups of software: (1) research tools, (2) PHM system development tools, (3) deployable architectures, and (4) peripheral tools. Eight software tools fell into the deployable architectures category. Of those eight, only two employ all six modules of a full PHM system. Five systems did not offer prognostic estimates, and one system employed the full health monitoring suite but lacked operations and

Lifecycle Prognostics Architecture for Selected High-Cost Active Components

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lybeck, N.; Pham, B.; Tawfik, M.; Coble, J.B.; Meyer, R.M.; Ramuhalli, P.; Bond, L.J.

2011-01-01

There are an extensive body of knowledge and some commercial products available for calculating prognostics, remaining useful life, and damage index parameters. The application of these technologies within the nuclear power community is still in its infancy. Online monitoring and condition-based maintenance is seeing increasing acceptance and deployment, and these activities provide the technological bases for expanding to add predictive/prognostics capabilities. In looking to deploy prognostics there are three key aspects of systems that are presented and discussed: (1) component/system/structure selection, (2) prognostic algorithms, and (3) prognostics architectures. Criteria are presented for component selection: feasibility, failure probability, consequences of failure, and benefits of the prognostics and health management (PHM) system. The basis and methods commonly used for prognostics algorithms are reviewed and summarized. Criteria for evaluating PHM architectures are presented: open, modular architecture; platform independence; graphical user interface for system development and/or results viewing; web enabled tools; scalability; and standards compatibility. Thirteen software products were identified and discussed in the context of being potentially useful for deployment in a PHM program applied to systems in a nuclear power plant (NPP). These products were evaluated by using information available from company websites, product brochures, fact sheets, scholarly publications, and direct communication with vendors. The thirteen products were classified into four groups of software: (1) research tools, (2) PHM system development tools, (3) deployable architectures, and (4) peripheral tools. Eight software tools fell into the deployable architectures category. Of those eight, only two employ all six modules of a full PHM system. Five systems did not offer prognostic estimates, and one system employed the full health monitoring suite but lacked operations and

A Model-based Avionic Prognostic Reasoner (MAPR)

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Model-based Avionic Prognostic Reasoner (MAPR) presented in this paper is an innovative solution for non-intrusively monitoring the state of health (SoH) and...

A framework for quantifying net benefits of alternative prognostic models.

Science.gov (United States)

Rapsomaniki, Eleni; White, Ian R; Wood, Angela M; Thompson, Simon G

2012-01-30

New prognostic models are traditionally evaluated using measures of discrimination and risk reclassification, but these do not take full account of the clinical and health economic context. We propose a framework for comparing prognostic models by quantifying the public health impact (net benefit) of the treatment decisions they support, assuming a set of predetermined clinical treatment guidelines. The change in net benefit is more clinically interpretable than changes in traditional measures and can be used in full health economic evaluations of prognostic models used for screening and allocating risk reduction interventions. We extend previous work in this area by quantifying net benefits in life years, thus linking prognostic performance to health economic measures; by taking full account of the occurrence of events over time; and by considering estimation and cross-validation in a multiple-study setting. The method is illustrated in the context of cardiovascular disease risk prediction using an individual participant data meta-analysis. We estimate the number of cardiovascular-disease-free life years gained when statin treatment is allocated based on a risk prediction model with five established risk factors instead of a model with just age, gender and region. We explore methodological issues associated with the multistudy design and show that cost-effectiveness comparisons based on the proposed methodology are robust against a range of modelling assumptions, including adjusting for competing risks. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A framework for quantifying net benefits of alternative prognostic models‡

Science.gov (United States)

Rapsomaniki, Eleni; White, Ian R; Wood, Angela M; Thompson, Simon G

2012-01-01

New prognostic models are traditionally evaluated using measures of discrimination and risk reclassification, but these do not take full account of the clinical and health economic context. We propose a framework for comparing prognostic models by quantifying the public health impact (net benefit) of the treatment decisions they support, assuming a set of predetermined clinical treatment guidelines. The change in net benefit is more clinically interpretable than changes in traditional measures and can be used in full health economic evaluations of prognostic models used for screening and allocating risk reduction interventions. We extend previous work in this area by quantifying net benefits in life years, thus linking prognostic performance to health economic measures; by taking full account of the occurrence of events over time; and by considering estimation and cross-validation in a multiple-study setting. The method is illustrated in the context of cardiovascular disease risk prediction using an individual participant data meta-analysis. We estimate the number of cardiovascular-disease-free life years gained when statin treatment is allocated based on a risk prediction model with five established risk factors instead of a model with just age, gender and region. We explore methodological issues associated with the multistudy design and show that cost-effectiveness comparisons based on the proposed methodology are robust against a range of modelling assumptions, including adjusting for competing risks. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:21905066

A copula-based sampling method for data-driven prognostics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xi, Zhimin; Jing, Rong; Wang, Pingfeng; Hu, Chao

2014-01-01

This paper develops a Copula-based sampling method for data-driven prognostics. The method essentially consists of an offline training process and an online prediction process: (i) the offline training process builds a statistical relationship between the failure time and the time realizations at specified degradation levels on the basis of off-line training data sets; and (ii) the online prediction process identifies probable failure times for online testing units based on the statistical model constructed in the offline process and the online testing data. Our contributions in this paper are three-fold, namely the definition of a generic health index system to quantify the health degradation of an engineering system, the construction of a Copula-based statistical model to learn the statistical relationship between the failure time and the time realizations at specified degradation levels, and the development of a simulation-based approach for the prediction of remaining useful life (RUL). Two engineering case studies, namely the electric cooling fan health prognostics and the 2008 IEEE PHM challenge problem, are employed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology. - Highlights: • We develop a novel mechanism for data-driven prognostics. • A generic health index system quantifies health degradation of engineering systems. • Off-line training model is constructed based on the Bayesian Copula model. • Remaining useful life is predicted from a simulation-based approach

Prognostics and Health Management of Wind Turbines -- Current Status and Future Opportunities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sheng, Shuangwen

2017-04-28

The global wind industry has seen tremendous growth during the past two decades. However, the industry is challenged by premature component failures, which lead to increased turbine downtime and subsequently, cost of energy for wind power. To mitigate the impacts from these failures, the wind industry has been exploring various areas for improvements ranging from product design, new materials or lubricants, to operation and maintenance (O&M) practices. Condition-based maintenance or prognostics and health management (PHM) has been explored as one enabling technology for improving O&M practices. This chapter provides a brief overview of wind turbine PHM with a focus on operational data mining and condition monitoring of drivetrains. Some future research and development opportunities in wind turbine PHM are also briefly discussed.

Diagnostic Reasoning using Prognostic Information for Unmanned Aerial Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Schumann, Johann; Roychoudhury, Indranil; Kulkarni, Chetan

2015-01-01

With increasing popularity of unmanned aircraft, continuous monitoring of their systems, software, and health status is becoming more and more important to ensure safe, correct, and efficient operation and fulfillment of missions. The paper presents integration of prognosis models and prognostic information with the R2U2 (REALIZABLE, RESPONSIVE, and UNOBTRUSIVE Unit) monitoring and diagnosis framework. This integration makes available statistically reliable health information predictions of the future at a much earlier time to enable autonomous decision making. The prognostic information can be used in the R2U2 model to improve diagnostic accuracy and enable decisions to be made at the present time to deal with events in the future. This will be an advancement over the current state of the art, where temporal logic observers can only do such valuation at the end of the time interval. Usefulness and effectiveness of this integrated diagnostics and prognostics framework was demonstrated using simulation experiments with the NASA Dragon Eye electric unmanned aircraft.

A clinically based prognostic index for diffuse large B-cell lymphoma with a cut-off at 70 years of age significantly improves prognostic stratification

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gang, Anne O.; Pedersen, Michael; d'Amore, Francesco

2015-01-01

The introduction of rituximab and generally improved health among elderly patients have increased the survival of patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL). The International Prognostic Index (IPI) from 1992 is based on pre-rituximab data from clinical trials including several lymphoma ...... dehydrogenase (LDH), stage and albumin level, and (2) a separate age-adjusted DLBCL-PI for patients 1 extranodal lesion, however excluding stage....... subtypes. We applied IPI factors to a population-based rituximab-treated cohort of 1990 patients diagnosed 2000-2010 and explored new factors and the optimal prognostic age cut-off for DLBCL. Multivariate-analyses (MVA) confirmed the prognostic value of all IPI factors except the presence of > 1 extranodal...... lesion. The optimal age cut-off was 70 years. In a MVA of albumin, lymphocyte count, sex, immunoglobulin G, bulky disease, hemoglobin and B-symptoms, only albumin was prognostic. We propose: (1) a modified DLBCL prognostic index (DLBCL-PI) including: age (70 years), performance status (PS), lactate...

Summary of Nuclear Power Plant Prognostics and Health Management Report: PNNL-21515

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Coble, Jamie; Hines, Wesley; Upadhyaya; Belle [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (United States); Ramuhalli, Pradeep [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland (United States); Bond, Leonard [Iowa State University, Ames (United States)

2014-08-15

The recent changes in oil and gas production, as well as wider geo-political events are causing the economics for electricity generation to currently be in a state of some turbulence in the United States (USA). In spite of this, nuclear power continues to meet about a fifth of the electricity needs in the USA. Currently, three separate thrusts to ensure safe and economical nuclear power development to give energy security are being pursued in the USA: longer term operation for the legacy fleet, from 40.60 and possibly 60.80 years; four near-term new nuclear plants with a 60-year design life; and small modular reactors (SMR) design certification, which are expected to employ light water reactor technology, at least in the medium term. Within these activities, attention is turning to enhanced methods for plant component and structural health management. The state of the art in prognostic and health management systems for nuclear power plants was recently reviewed and presented in a report (PNNL-21515); this paper summarizes the key findings of that review.

Prognostic factors for work ability in women with chronic low back pain consulting primary health care: a 2-year prospective longitudinal cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Nordeman, Lena; Gunnarsson, Ronny; Mannerkorpi, Kaisa

2014-05-01

To investigate prognostic factors for future work ability in women with chronic low back pain (CLBP) consulting primary health care. A 2-year prospective longitudinal cohort study of female patients with CLBP within the primary health care was conducted. Patients were assessed at the first assessment and after 2 years. Prognostic factors for work ability (yes/no) were analyzed by multivariate regression. A total of 130 patients were included at first assessment. After 2 years, 123 patients (95%) were followed up. The 6-minute walk test, depression, and earlier work ability predicted work ability at the 2-year follow-up. A nomogram was constructed to assess the probability of future work ability. The 6-minute walk test, work ability, and depression predicted work ability for women with CLBP after 2 years.

Diagnostic and Prognostic Models for Generator Step-Up Transformers

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vivek Agarwal; Nancy J. Lybeck; Binh T. Pham

2014-09-01

In 2014, the online monitoring (OLM) of active components project under the Light Water Reactor Sustainability program at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) focused on diagnostic and prognostic capabilities for generator step-up transformers. INL worked with subject matter experts from the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) to augment and revise the GSU fault signatures previously implemented in the Electric Power Research Institute’s (EPRI’s) Fleet-Wide Prognostic and Health Management (FW-PHM) Suite software. Two prognostic models were identified and implemented for GSUs in the FW-PHM Suite software. INL and EPRI demonstrated the use of prognostic capabilities for GSUs. The complete set of fault signatures developed for GSUs in the Asset Fault Signature Database of the FW-PHM Suite for GSUs is presented in this report. Two prognostic models are described for paper insulation: the Chendong model for degree of polymerization, and an IEEE model that uses a loading profile to calculates life consumption based on hot spot winding temperatures. Both models are life consumption models, which are examples of type II prognostic models. Use of the models in the FW-PHM Suite was successfully demonstrated at the 2014 August Utility Working Group Meeting, Idaho Falls, Idaho, to representatives from different utilities, EPRI, and the Halden Research Project.

Towards Prognostics for Electronics Components

Science.gov (United States)

Saha, Bhaskar; Celaya, Jose R.; Wysocki, Philip F.; Goebel, Kai F.

2013-01-01

Electronics components have an increasingly critical role in avionics systems and in the development of future aircraft systems. Prognostics of such components is becoming a very important research field as a result of the need to provide aircraft systems with system level health management information. This paper focuses on a prognostics application for electronics components within avionics systems, and in particular its application to an Isolated Gate Bipolar Transistor (IGBT). This application utilizes the remaining useful life prediction, accomplished by employing the particle filter framework, leveraging data from accelerated aging tests on IGBTs. These tests induced thermal-electrical overstresses by applying thermal cycling to the IGBT devices. In-situ state monitoring, including measurements of steady-state voltages and currents, electrical transients, and thermal transients are recorded and used as potential precursors of failure.

Prognostic Health Management System: Component Selection Based on Risk Criteria and Economic Benefit Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pham, B.T.; Agarwal, V.; Lybeck, N.J.; Tawfik, M.S.

2012-01-01

Long-term operation (LTO), i.e., beyond 60 years, of the current fleet of nuclear power plants (NPPs) is an important element in the overall energy stability of the United States in coming decades. Problem Statement and Proposed Approach: - For LTO of NPPs, early and proactive diagnosis of degradation at systems, structures, and components (SSCs) level is required; - Periodic maintenance versus Proactive maintenance; - Prognostic Health Monitoring (PHM) can be used to better manage aging and degradation mechanisms, including emerging mechanisms; - Selection of components is crucial for implementing the PHM system; - Approach is to develop a quantitative framework that aids systematic identification of plant components that are selected for cost-effective PHM.

Structural health and prognostics management for offshore wind turbines :

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Griffith, Daniel; Resor, Brian Ray; White, Jonathan Randall; Paquette, Joshua A.; Yoder, Nathanael C.

2012-12-01

Operations and maintenance costs for offshore wind plants are expected to be significantly higher than the current costs for onshore plants. One way in which these costs may be able to be reduced is through the use of a structural health and prognostic management system as part of a condition based maintenance paradigm with smart load management. To facilitate the creation of such a system a multiscale modeling approach has been developed to identify how the underlying physics of the system are affected by the presence of damage and how these changes manifest themselves in the operational response of a full turbine. The developed methodology was used to investigate the effects of a candidate blade damage feature, a trailing edge disbond, on a 5-MW offshore wind turbine and the measurements that demonstrated the highest sensitivity to the damage were the local pitching moments around the disbond. The multiscale method demonstrated that these changes were caused by a local decrease in the blades torsional stiffness due to the disbond, which also resulted in changes in the blades local strain field. Full turbine simulations were also used to demonstrate that derating the turbine power by as little as 5% could extend the fatigue life of a blade by as much as a factor of 3. The integration of the health monitoring information, conceptual repair cost versus damage size information, and this load management methodology provides an initial roadmap for reducing operations and maintenance costs for offshore wind farms while increasing turbine availability and overall profit.

Nottingham Prognostic Index in Triple-Negative Breast Cancer: a reliable prognostic tool?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Albergaria, André; Ricardo, Sara; Milanezi, Fernanda; Carneiro, Vítor; Amendoeira, Isabel; Vieira, Daniella; Cameselle-Teijeiro, Jorge; Schmitt, Fernando

2011-01-01

A breast cancer prognostic tool should ideally be applicable to all types of invasive breast lesions. A number of studies have shown histopathological grade to be an independent prognostic factor in breast cancer, adding prognostic power to nodal stage and tumour size. The Nottingham Prognostic Index has been shown to accurately predict patient outcome in stratified groups with a follow-up period of 15 years after primary diagnosis of breast cancer. Clinically, breast tumours that lack the expression of Oestrogen Receptor, Progesterone Receptor and Human Epidermal growth factor Receptor 2 (HER2) are identified as presenting a 'triple-negative' phenotype or as triple-negative breast cancers. These poor outcome tumours represent an easily recognisable prognostic group of breast cancer with aggressive behaviour that currently lack the benefit of available systemic therapy. There are conflicting results on the prevalence of lymph node metastasis at the time of diagnosis in triple-negative breast cancer patients but it is currently accepted that triple-negative breast cancer does not metastasize to axillary nodes and bones as frequently as the non-triple-negative carcinomas, favouring instead, a preferentially haematogenous spread. Hypothetically, this particular tumour dissemination pattern would impair the reliability of using Nottingham Prognostic Index as a tool for triple-negative breast cancer prognostication. The present study tested the effectiveness of the Nottingham Prognostic Index in stratifying breast cancer patients of different subtypes with special emphasis in a triple-negative breast cancer patient subset versus non- triple-negative breast cancer. We demonstrated that besides the fact that TNBC disseminate to axillary lymph nodes as frequently as luminal or HER2 tumours, we also showed that TNBC are larger in size compared with other subtypes and almost all grade 3. Additionally, survival curves demonstrated that these prognostic factors are

Real-Time Prognostics of a Rotary Valve Actuator

Science.gov (United States)

Daigle, Matthew

2015-01-01

Valves are used in many domains and often have system-critical functions. As such, it is important to monitor the health of valves and their actuators and predict remaining useful life. In this work, we develop a model-based prognostics approach for a rotary valve actuator. Due to limited observability of the component with multiple failure modes, a lumped damage approach is proposed for estimation and prediction of damage progression. In order to support the goal of real-time prognostics, an approach to prediction is developed that does not require online simulation to compute remaining life, rather, a function mapping the damage state to remaining useful life is found offline so that predictions can be made quickly online with a single function evaluation. Simulation results demonstrate the overall methodology, validating the lumped damage approach and demonstrating real-time prognostics.

Prognostic and health management for engineering systems: a review of the data-driven approach and algorithms

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thamo Sutharssan

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Prognostics and health management (PHM has become an important component of many engineering systems and products, where algorithms are used to detect anomalies, diagnose faults and predict remaining useful lifetime (RUL. PHM can provide many advantages to users and maintainers. Although primary goals are to ensure the safety, provide state of the health and estimate RUL of the components and systems, there are also financial benefits such as operational and maintenance cost reductions and extended lifetime. This study aims at reviewing the current status of algorithms and methods used to underpin different existing PHM approaches. The focus is on providing a structured and comprehensive classification of the existing state-of-the-art PHM approaches, data-driven approaches and algorithms.

Prognostics Health Management and Physics based failure Models for Electrolytic Capacitors

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This paper proposes first principles based modeling and prognostics approach for electrolytic capacitors. Electrolytic capacitors and MOSFETs are the two major...

Uncertainty Management for Diagnostics and Prognostics of Batteries using Bayesian Techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Saha, Bhaskar; Goebel, kai

2007-01-01

Uncertainty management has always been the key hurdle faced by diagnostics and prognostics algorithms. A Bayesian treatment of this problem provides an elegant and theoretically sound approach to the modern Condition- Based Maintenance (CBM)/Prognostic Health Management (PHM) paradigm. The application of the Bayesian techniques to regression and classification in the form of Relevance Vector Machine (RVM), and to state estimation as in Particle Filters (PF), provides a powerful tool to integrate the diagnosis and prognosis of battery health. The RVM, which is a Bayesian treatment of the Support Vector Machine (SVM), is used for model identification, while the PF framework uses the learnt model, statistical estimates of noise and anticipated operational conditions to provide estimates of remaining useful life (RUL) in the form of a probability density function (PDF). This type of prognostics generates a significant value addition to the management of any operation involving electrical systems.

Multi-agent Prognostics Health and Usage Monitoring (Multi-PHUM), Phase I

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — A prognostic system needs to separate nominal component behavior from the faulty ones even in the cases when those behaviors are similar. Advanced pattern...

Context-Dependent Prognostics and Health Assessment: A Condition-Based Maintenance Approach That Supports Mission Compliance

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Allgood, G.O.; Kercel, S.W.

1999-04-19

In today's manufacturing environment, plants, systems, and equipment are being asked to perform at levels not thought possible a decade ago. The intent is to improve process operations and equipment reliability, availability, and maintainability without costly upgrades. Of course these gains must be achieved without impacting operational performance. Downsizing is also taking its toll on operations. Loss of personnel, particularly those who represent the corporate history, is depleting US industries of their valuable experiential base which has been relied on so heavily in the past. These realizations are causing companies to rethink their condition-based maintenance policies by moving away from reacting to equipment problems to taking a proactive approach by anticipating needs based on market and customer requirements. This paper describes a different approach to condition-based maintenance-context-dependent prognostics and health assessment. This diagnostic capability is developed around a context-dependent model that provides a capability to anticipate impending failures and determine machine performance over a protracted period of time. This prognostic capability links operational requirements to an economic performance model. In this context, a system may provide 100% operability with less than 100% functionality. This paradigm is used to facilitate optimal logistic supply and support.

Structural health and prognostics management for offshore wind turbines :

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Myrent, Noah J.; Kusnick, Joshua F.; Barrett, Natalie C.; Adams, Douglas E.; Griffith, Daniel

2013-04-01

Operations and maintenance costs for offshore wind plants are significantly higher than the current costs for land-based (onshore) wind plants. One way to reduce these costs would be to implement a structural health and prognostic management (SHPM) system as part of a condition based maintenance paradigm with smart load management and utilize a state-based cost model to assess the economics associated with use of the SHPM system. To facilitate the development of such a system a multi-scale modeling approach developed in prior work is used to identify how the underlying physics of the system are affected by the presence of damage and faults, and how these changes manifest themselves in the operational response of a full turbine. This methodology was used to investigate two case studies: (1) the effects of rotor imbalance due to pitch error (aerodynamic imbalance) and mass imbalance and (2) disbond of the shear web; both on a 5-MW offshore wind turbine in the present report. Based on simulations of damage in the turbine model, the operational measurements that demonstrated the highest sensitivity to the damage/faults were the blade tip accelerations and local pitching moments for both imbalance and shear web disbond. The initial cost model provided a great deal of insight into the estimated savings in operations and maintenance costs due to the implementation of an effective SHPM system. The integration of the health monitoring information and O&M cost versus damage/fault severity information provides the initial steps to identify processes to reduce operations and maintenance costs for an offshore wind farm while increasing turbine availability, revenue, and overall profit.

A Mobile Robot Testbed for Prognostics-Enabled Autonomous Decision Making

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The ability to utilize prognostic system health information in operational decision making, especially when fused with information about future operational,...

Surface Prognostic Charts

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Surface Prognostic Charts are historical surface prognostic (forecast) charts created by the United States Weather Bureau. They include fronts, isobars, cloud, and...

Research on key technology of prognostic and health management for autonomous underwater vehicle

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Zhi

2017-12-01

Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) are non-cable and autonomous motional underwater robotics. With a wide range of activities, it can reach thousands of kilometers. Because it has the advantages of wide range, good maneuverability, safety and intellectualization, it becomes an important tool for various underwater tasks. How to improve diagnosis accuracy of the AUVs electrical system faults, and how to repair AUVs by the information are the focus of navy in the world. In turn, ensuring safe and reliable operation of the system has very important significance to improve AUVs sailing performance. To solve these problems, in the paper the prognostic and health management(PHM) technology is researched and used to AUV, and the overall framework and key technology are proposed, such as data acquisition, feature extraction, fault diagnosis, failure prediction and so on.

Neuroendocrine tumors of colon and rectum: validation of clinical and prognostic values of the World Health Organization 2010 grading classifications and European Neuroendocrine Tumor Society staging systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Shen, Chaoyong; Yin, Yuan; Chen, Huijiao; Tang, Sumin; Yin, Xiaonan; Zhou, Zongguang; Zhang, Bo; Chen, Zhixin

2017-03-28

This study evaluated and compared the clinical and prognostic values of the grading criteria used by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the European Neuroendocrine Tumors Society (ENETS). Moreover, this work assessed the current best prognostic model for colorectal neuroendocrine tumors (CRNETs). The 2010 WHO classifications and the ENETS systems can both stratify the patients into prognostic groups, although the 2010 WHO criteria is more applicable to CRNET patients. Along with tumor location, the 2010 WHO criteria are important independent prognostic parameters for CRNETs in both univariate and multivariate analyses through Cox regression (P<0.05). Data from 192 consecutive patients histopathologically diagnosed with CRNETs and had undergone surgical resection from January 2009 to May 2016 in a single center were retrospectively analyzed. Findings suggest that the WHO classifications are superior over the ENETS classification system in predicting the prognosis of CRNETs. Additionally, the WHO classifications can be widely used in clinical practice.

An Approach to Prognostic Decision Making in the Aerospace Domain

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The field of Prognostic Health Management (PHM) has been undergoing rapid growth in recent years, with development of increasingly sophisticated techniques for...

Prognostic criteria of sensitivity to antibiotics of staphylococcus clinical strains

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gordiy Paliy

2015-06-01

Department of Microbiology, Virology and Immunology, Vinnytsya National Pirogov Memorial Medical University Ministry of Health of Ukraine   Abstract In the article, the new data of sensitivity to antibiotics in clinical strains of Staphylococci are presented. For the first time, analytic dependence of dynamic prognostic criteria of the change of sensitivity of S. aureus clinical strains, isolated from patients, was obtained by means of mathematical prediction. There were investigated prognosticated indexes of Staphylococcus strains’ sensitivity to beta-lactams (oxacillin, ceftriaxone, imipenem and meropenem, vancomycin and linezolid. The dynamic of sensitivity decreasing to oxacillin, ceftriaxone, carbapenems (imipenem, meropenem, vancomycin (92,5 % and high sensitivity to linezolid in clinical strains of S. aureus were found out. Key words: sensitivity, antibiotics, Staphylococcus, prognostic indexes.

Prognostic value of admission plasma glucose in non-diabetic ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Prognostic value of admission plasma glucose in non-diabetic Nigerians with stroke. ... International Journal of Medicine and Health Development ... Outcome was measured using the Modified Rankin scale based on the last score of each ...

Implementation of Prognostic Methodologies to Cryogenic Propellant Loading Test-bed

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Prognostics methodologies determine the health state of a system and predict the end of life and remaining useful life. This information enables operators to take...

Prognostics for Ground Support Systems: Case Study on Pneumatic Valves

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Prognostics technologies determine the health (or damage) state of a component or sub- system, and make end of life (EOL) and remaining useful life (RUL)...

Health-related quality of life is a prognostic factor for survival in older patients after colorectal cancer diagnosis: A population-based study.

Science.gov (United States)

Fournier, Evelyne; Jooste, Valérie; Woronoff, Anne-Sophie; Quipourt, Valérie; Bouvier, Anne-Marie; Mercier, Mariette

2016-01-01

Studies carried out in the context of clinical trials have shown a relationship between survival and health-related quality of life in colorectal cancer patients. We assessed the prognostic value of health-related quality of life at diagnosis and of its longitudinal evolution on survival in older colorectal cancer patients. All patients aged ≥65 years, diagnosed with new colorectal cancer between 2003 and 2005 and registered in the Digestive Cancer Registry of Burgundy were eligible. Patients were asked to complete the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire Core 30 at inclusion, three, six and twelve months after. Multivariate regression models were used to evaluate the prognostic value of health-related quality of life scores at diagnosis and their deterioration on relative survival. In multivariate analysis, a role functioning dimension lower than median was predictive of lower survival (hazard ratio=3.1, p=0.015). After three and six months of follow-up, patients with greater appetite loss were more likely to die, with hazard ratios of 4.7 (p=0.013) and 3.7 (p=0.002), respectively. Health-related quality of life assessments at diagnosis are independently associated with older colorectal cancer patients' survival. Its preservation should be a major management goal for older cancer patients. Copyright © 2015 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prognostics Applied to Electric Propulsion UAV

Science.gov (United States)

Goebel, Kai; Saha, Bhaskar

2013-01-01

Health management plays an important role in operations of UAV. If there is equipment malfunction on critical components, safe operation of the UAV might possibly be compromised. A technology with particular promise in this arena is equipment prognostics. This technology provides a state assessment of the health of components of interest and, if a degraded state has been found, it estimates how long it will take before the equipment will reach a failure threshold, conditional on assumptions about future operating conditions and future environmental conditions. This chapter explores the technical underpinnings of how to perform prognostics and shows an implementation on the propulsion of an electric UAV. A particle filter is shown as the method of choice in performing state assessment and predicting future degradation. The method is then applied to the batteries that provide power to the propeller motors. An accurate run-time battery life prediction algorithm is of critical importance to ensure the safe operation of the vehicle if one wants to maximize in-air time. Current reliability based techniques turn out to be insufficient to manage the use of such batteries where loads vary frequently in uncertain environments.

Prognostic accuracy of antenatal neonatology consultation.

Science.gov (United States)

Kukora, S; Gollehon, N; Weiner, G; Laventhal, N

2017-01-01

Neonatologists provide antenatal counseling to support shared decision-making for complicated pregnancies. Poor or ambiguous prognostication can lead to inappropriate treatment and parental distress. We sought to evaluate the accuracy of antenatal prognosticaltion. A retrospective cohort was assembled from a prospectively populated database of all outpatient neonatology consultations. On the basis of the written consultation, fetuses were characterized by diagnosis groups (multiple anomalies or genetic disorders, single major anomaly and obstetric complications), assigned to five prognostic categories (I=survivable, IIA=uncertain but likely survivable, II=uncertain, IIB=uncertain but likely non-survivable, III non-survivable) and two final outcome categories (fetal demise/in-hospital neonatal death or survival to hospital discharge). When possible, status at last follow-up was recorded for those discharged from the hospital. Prognostic accuracy was assessed using unweighted, multi-level likelihood ratios (LRs). The final cohort included 143 fetuses/infants distributed nearly evenly among the three diagnosis groups. Over half (64%) were assigned an uncertain prognosis, but most of these could be divided into 'likely survivable' or 'likely non-survivable' subgroups. Overall survival for the entire cohort was 62% (89/143). All but one of the fetuses assigned a non-survivable prognosis suffered fetal demise or died before hospital discharge. The neonatologist's antenatal prognosis accurately predicted the probability of survival by prognosis group (LR I=4.56, LR IIA=10.53, LR II=4.71, LR IIB=0.099, LR III=0.040). The LRs clearly differentiated between fetuses with high and low probability of survival. Eleven fetuses (7.7%) had misalignment between the predicted prognosis and outcome. Five died before discharge despite being given category I or IIA prognoses, whereas six infants with category IIB or III prognoses survived to discharge, though some of these were

Performance of four ischemic stroke prognostic scores in a Brazilian population.

Science.gov (United States)

Kuster, Gustavo W; Dutra, Lívia A; Brasil, Israel P; Pacheco, Evelyn P; Arruda, Márcio J C; Volcov, Cristiane; Domingues, Renan B

2016-02-01

Ischemic stroke (IS) prognostic scales may help clinicians in their clinical decisions. This study aimed to assess the performance of four IS prognostic scales in a Brazilian population. We evaluated data of IS patients admitted at Hospital Paulistano, a Joint Commission International certified primary stroke center. In-hospital mortality and modified Rankin score at discharge were defined as the outcome measures. The performance of National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS), Stroke Prognostication Using Age and NIHSS (SPAN-100), Acute Stroke Registry and Analysis of Lausanne (ASTRAL), and Totaled Health Risks in Vascular Events (THRIVE) were compared. Two hundred six patients with a mean ± SD age of 67.58 ± 15.5 years, being 55.3% male, were included. The four scales were significantly and independently associated functional outcome. Only THRIVE was associated with in-hospital mortality. With area under the curve THRIVE and NIHSS were the scales with better performance for functional outcome and THRIVE had the best performance for mortality. THRIVE showed the best performance among the four scales, being the only associated with in-hospital mortality.

Prognostic factors of breast cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gonzalez Ortega, Jose Maria; Morales Wong, Mario Miguel; Lopez Cuevas, Zoraida; Diaz Valdez, Marilin

2011-01-01

The prognostic factors must to be differentiated of the predictive ones. A prognostic factor is any measurement used at moment of the surgery correlated with the free interval of disease or global survival in the absence of the systemic adjuvant treatment and as result is able to correlate with the natural history of the disease. In contrast, a predictive factor is any measurement associated with the response to a given treatment. Among the prognostic factors of the breast cancer are included the clinical, histological, biological, genetic and psychosocial factors. In present review of psychosocial prognostic factors has been demonstrated that the stress and the depression are negative prognostic factors in patients presenting with breast cancer. It is essential to remember that the assessment of just one prognostic parameter is a help but it is not useful to clinical and therapeutic management of the patient.(author)

Comparison of Two Probabilistic Fatigue Damage Assessment Approaches Using Prognostic Performance Metrics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xuefei Guan

2011-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper, two probabilistic prognosis updating schemes are compared. One is based on the classical Bayesian approach and the other is based on newly developed maximum relative entropy (MRE approach. The algorithm performance of the two models is evaluated using a set of recently developed prognostics-based metrics. Various uncertainties from measurements, modeling, and parameter estimations are integrated into the prognosis framework as random input variables for fatigue damage of materials. Measures of response variables are then used to update the statistical distributions of random variables and the prognosis results are updated using posterior distributions. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC technique is employed to provide the posterior samples for model updating in the framework. Experimental data are used to demonstrate the operation of the proposed probabilistic prognosis methodology. A set of prognostics-based metrics are employed to quantitatively evaluate the prognosis performance and compare the proposed entropy method with the classical Bayesian updating algorithm. In particular, model accuracy, precision, robustness and convergence are rigorously evaluated in addition to the qualitative visual comparison. Following this, potential development and improvement for the prognostics-based metrics are discussed in detail.

Morphological prognostic factors in breast cancer. Hospital Conrado Benitez, 1998-2002

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Prieto, M.; Rodriguez, I.; Ropero, R; Suarez, C.; Hernandez, R.

2009-01-01

Breast cancer is a major health problem in women. In Cuba, the adjusted incidence rate to world population in 2004 indicates that it is the leading cause in females, with a figure of 30.3. Establish the most important prognostic factors has been the subject of several studies with the purposes of stratifying patients according to risk groups and treatment schedules. The overall objective was to determine the influence on survival at 5 years of morphological prognostic factors, determined by histological techniques. (Author)

Differential evolution-based multi-objective optimization for the definition of a health indicator for fault diagnostics and prognostics

Science.gov (United States)

Baraldi, P.; Bonfanti, G.; Zio, E.

2018-03-01

The identification of the current degradation state of an industrial component and the prediction of its future evolution is a fundamental step for the development of condition-based and predictive maintenance approaches. The objective of the present work is to propose a general method for extracting a health indicator to measure the amount of component degradation from a set of signals measured during operation. The proposed method is based on the combined use of feature extraction techniques, such as Empirical Mode Decomposition and Auto-Associative Kernel Regression, and a multi-objective Binary Differential Evolution (BDE) algorithm for selecting the subset of features optimal for the definition of the health indicator. The objectives of the optimization are desired characteristics of the health indicator, such as monotonicity, trendability and prognosability. A case study is considered, concerning the prediction of the remaining useful life of turbofan engines. The obtained results confirm that the method is capable of extracting health indicators suitable for accurate prognostics.

IDH Mutations: Genotype-Phenotype Correlation and Prognostic Impact

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiao-Wei Wang

2014-01-01

Full Text Available IDH1/2 mutation is the most frequent genomic alteration found in gliomas, affecting 40% of these tumors and is one of the earliest alterations occurring in gliomagenesis. We investigated a series of 1305 gliomas and showed that IDH mutation is almost constant in 1p19q codeleted tumors. We found that the distribution of IDH1R132H, IDH1nonR132H, and IDH2 mutations differed between astrocytic, mixed, and oligodendroglial tumors, with an overrepresentation of IDH2 mutations in oligodendroglial phenotype and an overrepresentation of IDH1nonR132H in astrocytic tumors. We stratified grade II and grade III gliomas according to the codeletion of 1p19q and IDH mutation to define three distinct prognostic subgroups: 1p19q and IDH mutated, IDH mutated—which contains mostly TP53 mutated tumors, and none of these alterations. We confirmed that IDH mutation with a hazard ratio = 0.358 is an independent prognostic factor of good outcome. These data refine current knowledge on IDH mutation prognostic impact and genotype-phenotype associations.

Enhancement of Physics-of-Failure Prognostic Models with System Level Features

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Kacprzynski, Gregory

2002-01-01

.... The novelty in the current prognostic tool development is that predictions are made through the fusion of stochastic physics-of-failure models, relevant system or component level health monitoring...

A Testbed for Implementing Prognostic Methodologies on Cryogenic Propellant Loading Systems

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Prognostics technologies determine the health state of a system and predict its remaining useful life. With this information, operators are able to make...

Shoulder disorders in general practice : Prognostic indicators of outcome

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Van Der Windt, Daniëlle A W M; Koes, Bart W.; Boeke, A. Joan P; Devillé, Walter; De Jong, Bareld A.; Bouter, Lex M.

Background. Shoulder pain is common in primary health care. Nevertheless, information on the outcome of shoulder disorders is scarce, especially for patients encountered in general practice. Aim. To study the course of shoulder disorders in general practice and to determine prognostic indicators of

Prognostic accuracy of electroencephalograms in preterm infants

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fogtmann, Emilie Pi; Plomgaard, Anne Mette; Greisen, Gorm

2017-01-01

CONTEXT: Brain injury is common in preterm infants, and predictors of neurodevelopmental outcome are relevant. OBJECTIVE: To assess the prognostic test accuracy of the background activity of the EEG recorded as amplitude-integrated EEG (aEEG) or conventional EEG early in life in preterm infants...... for predicting neurodevelopmental outcome. DATA SOURCES: The Cochrane Library, PubMed, Embase, and the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature. STUDY SELECTION: We included observational studies that had obtained an aEEG or EEG within 7 days of life in preterm infants and reported...... neurodevelopmental outcomes 1 to 10 years later. DATA EXTRACTION: Two reviewers independently performed data extraction with regard to participants, prognostic testing, and outcomes. RESULTS: Thirteen observational studies with a total of 1181 infants were included. A metaanalysis was performed based on 3 studies...

Experimental program for physics-of-failure modeling of electrolytic capacitors towards prognostics and health management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rana, Y.S.; Banerjee, Shantanab; Singh, Tej; Varde, P.V.

2017-01-01

Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) is a method used for predicting reliability of a component or system by assessing its current health and future operating conditions. A physics-of-failure (PoF)-based program on PHM for reliability prediction has been initiated at our institute. As part of the program, we aim at developing PoF-based models for degradation of electronic components and their experimental validation. In this direction, a database on existing PoF models for different electronic components has been prepared. We plan to experimentally determine the model constants and propose suitable methodology for PHM. Electrolytic capacitors are one of the most common passive components which find their applications in devices such as power supplies in aircrafts and printed circuit boards (PCBs) for regulation and protection of a nuclear reactor. Experimental studies have established that electrolytic capacitors degrade under electrical and thermal stress and tend to fail before their anticipated useful life at normal operating conditions. Equivalent series resistance (ESR) and capacitance (C) are the two main parameters used for monitoring health of such capacitors. In this paper, we present an experimental program for thermal and electrical overstress studies towards degradation models for electrolytic capacitors. (author)

Bipolar disorder: The importance of clinical assessment in identifying prognostic factors - An Audit. Part 3: A comparison between Italian and English mental health services and a survey of bipolar disorder.

Science.gov (United States)

Verdolini, Norma; Dean, Jonathon; Massucci, Giampaolo; Elisei, Sandro; Quartesan, Roberto; Zaman, Rashid; Agius, Mark

2014-11-01

Most of the prognostic factors of bipolar disorder, which determine disease course and outcome, could be detected from simple but often-unrecorded questions asked during the psychiatric clinic assessments. In previous parts of this research, we analysed various prognostic factors and focused on mixed states and rapid cycling subsets. We now compare our sample in England with a small sample from Italy to demonstrate the utility of focused prognostic questioning and of international comparison. We collected data from the clinical notes of 70 English bipolar and 8 Italian bipolar outpatients seen at the initial psychiatric assessment clinic about socio-demographic and clinical factors to determine whether various factors had relevance to prevalence, prognosis, or outcome. The sample comprised 16 bipolar I (22.9%) and 54 bipolar II (77.1%) English outpatients and 7 bipolar I (87.5%) and 1 bipolar II (12.5%) Italian outpatients. Differences between the groups are seen mainly in terms of age of onset, duration of both depressive and hypomanic episodes, presence of psychiatric family history, incidence of mixed state features and rapid cycling, presence of elated mood in response to past antidepressant treatment, and misuse of illicit drugs and alcohol. In order to promote improved mental health primary care, mental health systems in all countries should develop standardized epidemiological tools that are shared between countries. We recommend the use of a questionnaire that reminds clinicians of potentially prognostic information and suggest that this might identify important components of a potential standardized diagnostic and prognostic tool.

Local-Level Prognostics Health Management Systems Framework for Passive AdvSMR Components. Interim Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ramuhalli, Pradeep [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Roy, Surajit [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hirt, Evelyn H. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Pardini, Allan F. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Jones, Anthony M. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Deibler, John E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States; Pitman, Stan G. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States; Tucker, Joseph C. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States; Prowant, Matthew S. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States; Suter, Jonathan D. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States

2014-09-12

This report describes research results to date in support of the integration and demonstration of diagnostics technologies for prototypical AdvSMR passive components (to establish condition indices for monitoring) with model-based prognostics methods. The focus of the PHM methodology and algorithm development in this study is at the localized scale. Multiple localized measurements of material condition (using advanced nondestructive measurement methods), along with available measurements of the stressor environment, enhance the performance of localized diagnostics and prognostics of passive AdvSMR components and systems.

A Systems Engineering Approach to Electro-Mechanical Actuator Diagnostic and Prognostic Development

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The authors have formulated a Comprehensive Systems Engineering approach to Electro-Mechanical Actuator (EMA) Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) system...

Health workforce in India: assessment of availability, production and distribution.

Science.gov (United States)

Hazarika, Indrajit

2013-01-01

India faces an acute shortage of health personnel. Together with inequalities in distribution of health workers, this shortfall impedes progress towards achievement of the Millennium Development Goals. The aim of this study was to assess health-workforce distribution, identify inequalities in health-worker provision and estimate the impact of this maldistribution on key health outcomes in India. Health-workforce availability and production were assessed by use of year-end data for 2009 obtained from the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation. Inequalities in the distribution of doctors, dentists, nurses and midwives were estimated by use of the Gini coefficient and the relation between health-worker density and selected health outcomes was assessed by linear regression. Inequalities in the availability of health workers exist in India. Certain states are experiencing an acute shortage of health personnel. Inequalities in the distribution of health workers are highest for doctors and dentists and have a significant effect on health outcomes. Although the production of health workers has expanded greatly in recent years, the problems of imbalances in their distribution persist. As India seeks to achieve universal health coverage by 2020, the realization of this goal remains challenged by the current lack of availability and inequitable distribution of appropriately trained, motivated and supported health workers.

Investigating the Effect of Damage Progression Model Choice on Prognostics Performance

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The success of model-based approaches to systems health management depends largely on the quality of the underly- ing models. In model-based prognostics, it is...

Prognostic effect of estrogen receptor status across age in primary breast cancer

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bentzon, N.; During, M.; Rasmussen, B.B.

2008-01-01

prognostic factor over all age groups. This effect was limited to the first 5 years after diagnosis, RR: 2.08 (95% CI: 1.95-2.22, p ER negative tumors, RR of death: 0.89 (95% CI: 0.79-1.00, p = 0.049). Results were......Estrogen receptor (ER) status is considered as an important prognostic factor as well as a predictive factor for endocrine responsiveness in breast cancer. We analyzed the distribution of ER status across age and estimated variations in the prognostic impact of ER status related to patients' age...... and time since diagnosis. Overall, 26,944 patients with primary breast cancer diagnosed from 1989 to 2004 were included. The proportion of ER positive tumors increased over age from 51 to 82%. In multivariate analysis of overall survival, ER positive status was found to be a significantly positive...

Identification of prognostic factors in patients with brain metastases: a review of 1292 patients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lagerwaard, Frank J.; Levendag, Peter C.; Nowak, Peter J.C.M.; Eijkenboom, Wilhelmina M.H.; Hanssens, Patrick E.J.; Schmitz, Paul I.M.

1999-01-01

Purpose: Prognostic factors in 1292 patients with brain metastases, treated in a single institution were identified in order to determine subgroups of patients suitable for selection in future trials. Materials and Methods: From January 1981 through December 1990, 1292 patients with CT-diagnosed brain metastases were referred to the Department of Radiation Oncology, Daniel den Hoed Cancer Center, Rotterdam. The majority of patients were treated with whole brain radiotherapy (84%), the remainder were treated with steroids only or surgery and radiotherapy. Information on potential prognostic factors (age, sex, performance status, number and distribution of brain metastases, site of primary tumor, histology, interval between primary tumor and brain metastases, systemic tumor activity, serum lactate dehydrogenase, response to steroid treatment, and treatment modality) was collected. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to determine significant prognostic factors. Results were compared with literature findings using a review of prognostic factors in 18 published reports. Results: Overall median survival was 3.4 months, with 6-month, 1-year, and 2-year survival percentages of 36%, 12%, and 4% respectively. Survival was statistically significantly different between treatment modalities, with median survival of 1.3 months in patients treated with steroids only, 3.6 months in patients treated with radiotherapy, and 8.9 months in patients treated with neurosurgery followed by radiotherapy (p < 0.0001). Multivariate analysis confirmed literature findings of the major prognostic value of treatment modality on survival of patients with brain metastases. Performance status, response to steroid treatment, systemic tumor activity, and serum lactate dehydrogenase were independent prognostic factors with the strongest impact on survival, second only to treatment modality. Site of primary tumor, age, and number of brain metastases were also identified as prognostic

Performance of four ischemic stroke prognostic scores in a Brazilian population

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gustavo W. Kuster

2016-02-01

Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective Ischemic stroke (IS prognostic scales may help clinicians in their clinical decisions. This study aimed to assess the performance of four IS prognostic scales in a Brazilian population. Method We evaluated data of IS patients admitted at Hospital Paulistano, a Joint Commission International certified primary stroke center. In-hospital mortality and modified Rankin score at discharge were defined as the outcome measures. The performance of National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS, Stroke Prognostication Using Age and NIHSS (SPAN-100, Acute Stroke Registry and Analysis of Lausanne (ASTRAL, and Totaled Health Risks in Vascular Events (THRIVE were compared. Results Two hundred six patients with a mean ± SD age of 67.58 ± 15.5 years, being 55.3% male, were included. The four scales were significantly and independently associated functional outcome. Only THRIVE was associated with in-hospital mortality. With area under the curve THRIVE and NIHSS were the scales with better performance for functional outcome and THRIVE had the best performance for mortality. Conclusion THRIVE showed the best performance among the four scales, being the only associated with in-hospital mortality.

Prognostics

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Prognostics has received considerable attention recently as an emerging sub-discipline within SHM. Prognosis is here strictly defined as “predicting the time at...

An Optimization Method for Condition Based Maintenance of Aircraft Fleet Considering Prognostics Uncertainty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qiang Feng

2014-01-01

Full Text Available An optimization method for condition based maintenance (CBM of aircraft fleet considering prognostics uncertainty is proposed. The CBM and dispatch process of aircraft fleet is analyzed first, and the alternative strategy sets for single aircraft are given. Then, the optimization problem of fleet CBM with lower maintenance cost and dispatch risk is translated to the combinatorial optimization problem of single aircraft strategy. Remain useful life (RUL distribution of the key line replaceable Module (LRM has been transformed into the failure probability of the aircraft and the fleet health status matrix is established. And the calculation method of the costs and risks for mission based on health status matrix and maintenance matrix is given. Further, an optimization method for fleet dispatch and CBM under acceptable risk is proposed based on an improved genetic algorithm. Finally, a fleet of 10 aircrafts is studied to verify the proposed method. The results shows that it could realize optimization and control of the aircraft fleet oriented to mission success.

Measuring inequalities in the distribution of the Fiji Health Workforce.

Science.gov (United States)

Wiseman, Virginia; Lagarde, Mylene; Batura, Neha; Lin, Sophia; Irava, Wayne; Roberts, Graham

2017-06-30

Despite the centrality of health personnel to the health of the population, the planning, production and management of human resources for health remains underdeveloped in many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). In addition to the general shortage of health workers, there are significant inequalities in the distribution of health workers within LMICs. This is especially true for countries like Fiji, which face major challenges in distributing its health workforce across many inhabited islands. In this study, we describe and measure health worker distributional inequalities in Fiji, using data from the 2007 Population Census, and Ministry of Health records of crude death rates and health workforce personnel. We adopt methods from the economics literature including the Lorenz Curve/Gini Coefficient and Theil Index to measure the extent and drivers of inequality in the distribution of health workers at the sub-national level in Fiji for three categories of health workers: doctors, nurses, and all health workers (doctors, nurses, dentists and health support staff). Population size and crude death rates are used as proxies for health care needs. There are greater inequalities in the densities of health workers at the provincial level, compared to the divisional level in Fiji - six of the 15 provinces fall short of the recommended threshold of 2.3 health workers per 1,000 people. The estimated decile ratios, Gini co-efficient and Thiel index point to inequalities at the provincial level in Fiji, mainly with respect to the distribution of doctors; however these inequalities are relatively small. While populations with lower mortality tend to have a slightly greater share of health workers, the overall distribution of health workers on the basis of need is more equitable in Fiji than for many other LMICs. The overall shortage of health workers could be addressed by creating new cadres of health workers; employing increasing numbers of foreign doctors, including

Prognostic factors for duration of sick leave due to low-back pain in dutch health care professionals

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Steenstra, I.A.; Koopman, F.S.; Knol, D.L.; de Kat, E.; Bongers, P.M.; de Vet, H.C.W.; van Mechelen, W.

2005-01-01

Background: Information on prognostic factors for duration of sick leave due to low-back pain (LBP) is growing. In this prospective cohort study prognostic factors for duration of sick leave and course of disability were identified in a very early stage of sick leave due to LBP in an occupational

Generic Software Architecture for Prognostics (GSAP) User Guide

Science.gov (United States)

Teubert, Christopher Allen; Daigle, Matthew John; Watkins, Jason; Sankararaman, Shankar; Goebel, Kai

2016-01-01

The Generic Software Architecture for Prognostics (GSAP) is a framework for applying prognostics. It makes applying prognostics easier by implementing many of the common elements across prognostic applications. The standard interface enables reuse of prognostic algorithms and models across systems using the GSAP framework.

Prognostic methods in medicine

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lucas, P. J.; Abu-Hanna, A.

1999-01-01

Prognosis--the prediction of the course and outcome of disease processes--plays an important role in patient management tasks like diagnosis and treatment planning. As a result, prognostic models form an integral part of a number of systems supporting these tasks. Furthermore, prognostic models

Aircraft Anomaly Prognostics, Phase I

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Ridgetop Group will leverage its proven Electromechanical Actuator (EMA) prognostics methodology to develop an advanced model-based actuator prognostic reasoner...

Evaluating biomarkers for prognostic enrichment of clinical trials.

Science.gov (United States)

Kerr, Kathleen F; Roth, Jeremy; Zhu, Kehao; Thiessen-Philbrook, Heather; Meisner, Allison; Wilson, Francis Perry; Coca, Steven; Parikh, Chirag R

2017-12-01

A potential use of biomarkers is to assist in prognostic enrichment of clinical trials, where only patients at relatively higher risk for an outcome of interest are eligible for the trial. We investigated methods for evaluating biomarkers for prognostic enrichment. We identified five key considerations when considering a biomarker and a screening threshold for prognostic enrichment: (1) clinical trial sample size, (2) calendar time to enroll the trial, (3) total patient screening costs and the total per-patient trial costs, (4) generalizability of trial results, and (5) ethical evaluation of trial eligibility criteria. Items (1)-(3) are amenable to quantitative analysis. We developed the Biomarker Prognostic Enrichment Tool for evaluating biomarkers for prognostic enrichment at varying levels of screening stringency. We demonstrate that both modestly prognostic and strongly prognostic biomarkers can improve trial metrics using Biomarker Prognostic Enrichment Tool. Biomarker Prognostic Enrichment Tool is available as a webtool at http://prognosticenrichment.com and as a package for the R statistical computing platform. In some clinical settings, even biomarkers with modest prognostic performance can be useful for prognostic enrichment. In addition to the quantitative analysis provided by Biomarker Prognostic Enrichment Tool, investigators must consider the generalizability of trial results and evaluate the ethics of trial eligibility criteria.

Distributed leadership in health care

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Günzel-Jensen, Franziska; Jain, Ajay K.; Kjeldsen, Anne Mette

2018-01-01

Management and health care literature is increasingly preoccupied with leadership as a collective social process, and related leadership concepts such as distributed leadership have therefore recently gained momentum. This paper investigates how formal, i.e. transformational, transactional...... and empowering, leadership styles affect employees’ perceived agency in distributed leadership, and whether these associations are mediated by employees’ perceived organizational efficacy. Based on large-scale survey data from a study at one of Scandinavia’s largest public hospitals (N = 1,147), our results show...... that all leadership styles had a significant positive impact on employees’ perceived agency in distributed leadership. Further, organizational efficacy related negatively to employees’ perceived agency in distributed leadership; however a mediatory impact of this on the formal leadership styles...

A Rest Time-Based Prognostic Framework for State of Health Estimation of Lithium-Ion Batteries with Regeneration Phenomena

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Taichun Qin

2016-11-01

Full Text Available State of health (SOH prognostics is significant for safe and reliable usage of lithium-ion batteries. To accurately predict regeneration phenomena and improve long-term prediction performance of battery SOH, this paper proposes a rest time-based prognostic framework (RTPF in which the beginning time interval of two adjacent cycles is adopted to reflect the rest time. In this framework, SOH values of regeneration cycles, the number of cycles in regeneration regions and global degradation trends are extracted from raw SOH time series and predicted respectively, and then the three sets of prediction results are integrated to calculate the final overall SOH prediction values. Regeneration phenomena can be found by support vector machine and hyperplane shift (SVM-HS model by detecting long beginning time intervals. Gaussian process (GP model is utilized to predict the global degradation trend, and nonlinear models are utilized to predict the regeneration amplitude and the cycle number of each regeneration region. The proposed framework is validated through experimental data from the degradation tests of lithium-ion batteries. The results demonstrate that both the global degradation trend and the regeneration phenomena of the testing batteries can be well predicted. Moreover, compared with the published methods, more accurate SOH prediction results can be obtained under this framework.

Prognostic and predictive factors in colorectal cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Bolocan, A; Ion, D; Ciocan, D N; Paduraru, D N

2012-01-01

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is an important public health problem; it is a leading cause of cancer mortality in the industrialized world, second to lung cancer: each year there are nearly one million new cases of CRC diagnosed worldwide and half a million deaths (1). This review aims to summarise the most important currently available markers for CRC that provide prognostic or predictive information. Amongst others, it covers serum markers such as CEA and CA19-9, markers expressed by tumour tissues, such as thymidylate synthase, and also the expression/loss of expression of certain oncogenes and tumour suppressor genes such as K-ras and p53. The prognostic value of genomic instability, angiogenesis and proliferative indices, such as the apoptotic index, are discussed. The advent of new therapies created the pathway for a personalized approach of the patient. This will take into consideration the complex genetic mechanisms involved in tumorigenesis, besides the classical clinical and pathological stagings. The growing number of therapeutic agents and known molecular targets in oncology lead to a compulsory study of the clinical use of biomarkers with role in improving response and survival, as well as in reducing toxicity and establishing economic stability. The potential predictive and prognostic biomarkers which have arisen from the study of the genetic basis of colorectal cancer and their therapeutical significance are discussed. RevistaChirurgia.

[A prognostic model of a cholera epidemic].

Science.gov (United States)

Boev, B V; Bondarenko, V M; Prokop'eva, N V; San Román, R T; Raygoza-Anaya, M; García de Alba, R

1994-01-01

A new model for the prognostication of cholera epidemic on the territory of a large city is proposed. This model reflects the characteristic feature of contacting infection by sensitive individuals due to the preservation of Vibrio cholerae in their water habitat. The mathematical model of the epidemic quantitatively reflects the processes of the spread of infection by kinetic equations describing the interaction of the streams of infected persons, the causative agents and susceptible persons. The functions and parameters of the model are linked with the distribution of individuals according to the duration of the incubation period and infectious process, as well as the period of asymptomatic carrier state. The computer realization of the model by means of IBM PC/AT made it possible to study the cholera epidemic which took place in Mexico in 1833. The verified model of the cholera epidemic was used for the prognostication of the possible spread of this infection in Guadalajara, taking into account changes in the epidemiological situation and the size of the population, as well as improvements in sanitary and hygienic conditions, in the city.

Prognostic Health Monitoring System: Component Selection Based on Risk Criteria and Economic Benefit Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pham, Binh T.; Agarwal, Vivek; Lybeck, Nancy J.; Tawfik, Magdy S.

2012-01-01

Prognostic health monitoring (PHM) is a proactive approach to monitor the ability of structures, systems, and components (SSCs) to withstand structural, thermal, and chemical loadings over the SSCs planned service lifespan. The current efforts to extend the operational license lifetime of the aging fleet of U.S. nuclear power plants from 40 to 60 years and beyond can benefit from a systematic application of PHM technology. Implementing a PHM system would strengthen the safety of nuclear power plants, reduce plant outage time, and reduce operation and maintenance costs. However, a nuclear power plant has thousands of SSCs, so implementing a PHM system that covers all SSCs requires careful planning and prioritization. This paper therefore focuses on a component selection that is based on the analysis of a component's failure probability, risk, and cost. Ultimately, the decision on component selection depends on the overall economical benefits arising from safety and operational considerations associated with implementing the PHM system. (author)

Prognostic Fault Detection and Isolation for EMA and EPS Systems, Phase I

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — In response to NASA SBIR topic X1.04, Ridgetop Group will extend and adapt RingDown: an innovative system for the non-invasive prognostic monitoring of the health of...

Transitions in Prognostic Awareness Among Terminally Ill Cancer Patients in Their Last 6 Months of Life Examined by Multi-State Markov Modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Hsiu Chen, Chen; Wen, Fur-Hsing; Hou, Ming-Mo; Hsieh, Chia-Hsun; Chou, Wen-Chi; Chen, Jen-Shi; Chang, Wen-Cheng; Tang, Siew Tzuh

2017-09-01

Developing accurate prognostic awareness, a cornerstone of preference-based end-of-life (EOL) care decision-making, is a dynamic process involving more prognostic-awareness states than knowing or not knowing. Understanding the transition probabilities and time spent in each prognostic-awareness state can help clinicians identify trigger points for facilitating transitions toward accurate prognostic awareness. We examined transition probabilities in distinct prognostic-awareness states between consecutive time points in 247 cancer patients' last 6 months and estimated the time spent in each state. Prognostic awareness was categorized into four states: (a) unknown and not wanting to know, state 1; (b) unknown but wanting to know, state 2; (c) inaccurate awareness, state 3; and (d) accurate awareness, state 4. Transitional probabilities were examined by multistate Markov modeling. Initially, 59.5% of patients had accurate prognostic awareness, whereas the probabilities of being in states 1-3 were 8.1%, 17.4%, and 15.0%, respectively. Patients' prognostic awareness generally remained unchanged (probabilities of remaining in the same state: 45.5%-92.9%). If prognostic awareness changed, it tended to shift toward higher prognostic-awareness states (probabilities of shifting to state 4 were 23.2%-36.6% for patients initially in states 1-3, followed by probabilities of shifting to state 3 for those in states 1 and 2 [9.8%-10.1%]). Patients were estimated to spend 1.29, 0.42, 0.68, and 3.61 months in states 1-4, respectively, in their last 6 months. Terminally ill cancer patients' prognostic awareness generally remained unchanged, with a tendency to become more aware of their prognosis. Health care professionals should facilitate patients' transitions toward accurate prognostic awareness in a timely manner to promote preference-based EOL decisions. Terminally ill Taiwanese cancer patients' prognostic awareness generally remained stable, with a tendency toward developing

Distributed computing for global health

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva; Schwede, Torsten; Moore, Celia; Smith, Thomas E; Williams, Brian; Grey, François

2005-01-01

Distributed computing harnesses the power of thousands of computers within organisations or over the Internet. In order to tackle global health problems, several groups of researchers have begun to use this approach to exceed by far the computing power of a single lab. This event illustrates how companies, research institutes and the general public are contributing their computing power to these efforts, and what impact this may have on a range of world health issues. Grids for neglected diseases Vincent Breton, CNRS/EGEE This talk introduces the topic of distributed computing, explaining the similarities and differences between Grid computing, volunteer computing and supercomputing, and outlines the potential of Grid computing for tackling neglected diseases where there is little economic incentive for private R&D efforts. Recent results on malaria drug design using the Grid infrastructure of the EU-funded EGEE project, which is coordinated by CERN and involves 70 partners in Europe, the US and Russi...

Distributed data processing for public health surveillance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yih Katherine

2006-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Many systems for routine public health surveillance rely on centralized collection of potentially identifiable, individual, identifiable personal health information (PHI records. Although individual, identifiable patient records are essential for conditions for which there is mandated reporting, such as tuberculosis or sexually transmitted diseases, they are not routinely required for effective syndromic surveillance. Public concern about the routine collection of large quantities of PHI to support non-traditional public health functions may make alternative surveillance methods that do not rely on centralized identifiable PHI databases increasingly desirable. Methods The National Bioterrorism Syndromic Surveillance Demonstration Program (NDP is an example of one alternative model. All PHI in this system is initially processed within the secured infrastructure of the health care provider that collects and holds the data, using uniform software distributed and supported by the NDP. Only highly aggregated count data is transferred to the datacenter for statistical processing and display. Results Detailed, patient level information is readily available to the health care provider to elucidate signals observed in the aggregated data, or for ad hoc queries. We briefly describe the benefits and disadvantages associated with this distributed processing model for routine automated syndromic surveillance. Conclusion For well-defined surveillance requirements, the model can be successfully deployed with very low risk of inadvertent disclosure of PHI – a feature that may make participation in surveillance systems more feasible for organizations and more appealing to the individuals whose PHI they hold. It is possible to design and implement distributed systems to support non-routine public health needs if required.

A Modeling Framework for Prognostic Decision Making and its Application to UAV Mission Planning

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The goal of prognostic decision making (PDM) is to utilize information on anticipated system health changes in selecting future actions. One of the key challenges in...

Prognostic factors in lupus nephritis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Faurschou, Mikkel; Starklint, Henrik; Halberg, Poul

2006-01-01

To evaluate the prognostic significance of clinical and renal biopsy findings in an unselected cohort of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and nephritis.......To evaluate the prognostic significance of clinical and renal biopsy findings in an unselected cohort of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and nephritis....

Validation and potential mechanisms of red cell distribution width as a prognostic marker in heart failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Allen, Larry A; Felker, G Michael; Mehra, Mandeep R; Chiong, Jun R; Dunlap, Stephanie H; Ghali, Jalal K; Lenihan, Daniel J; Oren, Ron M; Wagoner, Lynne E; Schwartz, Todd A; Adams, Kirkwood F

2010-03-01

Adverse outcomes have recently been linked to elevated red cell distribution width (RDW) in heart failure. Our study sought to validate the prognostic value of RDW in heart failure and to explore the potential mechanisms underlying this association. Data from the Study of Anemia in a Heart Failure Population (STAMINA-HFP) registry, a prospective, multicenter cohort of ambulatory patients with heart failure supported multivariable modeling to assess relationships between RDW and outcomes. The association between RDW and iron metabolism, inflammation, and neurohormonal activation was studied in a separate cohort of heart failure patients from the United Investigators to Evaluate Heart Failure (UNITE-HF) Biomarker registry. RDW was independently predictive of outcome (for each 1% increase in RDW, hazard ratio for mortality 1.06, 95% CI 1.01-1.12; hazard ratio for hospitalization or mortality 1.06; 95% CI 1.02-1.10) after adjustment for other covariates. Increasing RDW correlated with decreasing hemoglobin, increasing interleukin-6, and impaired iron mobilization. Our results confirm previous observations that RDW is a strong, independent predictor of adverse outcome in chronic heart failure and suggest elevated RDW may indicate inflammatory stress and impaired iron mobilization. These findings encourage further research into the relationship between heart failure and the hematologic system. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

State Space Formulation of Nonlinear Vibration Responses Collected from a Dynamic Rotor-Bearing System: An Extension of Bearing Diagnostics to Bearing Prognostics.

Science.gov (United States)

Tse, Peter W; Wang, Dong

2017-02-14

Bearings are widely used in various industries to support rotating shafts. Their failures accelerate failures of other adjacent components and may cause unexpected machine breakdowns. In recent years, nonlinear vibration responses collected from a dynamic rotor-bearing system have been widely analyzed for bearing diagnostics. Numerous methods have been proposed to identify different bearing faults. However, these methods are unable to predict the future health conditions of bearings. To extend bearing diagnostics to bearing prognostics, this paper reports the design of a state space formulation of nonlinear vibration responses collected from a dynamic rotor-bearing system in order to intelligently predict bearing remaining useful life (RUL). Firstly, analyses of nonlinear vibration responses were conducted to construct a bearing health indicator (BHI) so as to assess the current bearing health condition. Secondly, a state space model of the BHI was developed to mathematically track the health evolution of the BHI. Thirdly, unscented particle filtering was used to predict bearing RUL. Lastly, a new bearing acceleration life testing setup was designed to collect natural bearing degradation data, which were used to validate the effectiveness of the proposed bearing prognostic method. Results show that the prediction accuracy of the proposed bearing prognostic method is promising and the proposed bearing prognostic method is able to reflect future bearing health conditions.

State Space Formulation of Nonlinear Vibration Responses Collected from a Dynamic Rotor-Bearing System: An Extension of Bearing Diagnostics to Bearing Prognostics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peter W. Tse

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Bearings are widely used in various industries to support rotating shafts. Their failures accelerate failures of other adjacent components and may cause unexpected machine breakdowns. In recent years, nonlinear vibration responses collected from a dynamic rotor-bearing system have been widely analyzed for bearing diagnostics. Numerous methods have been proposed to identify different bearing faults. However, these methods are unable to predict the future health conditions of bearings. To extend bearing diagnostics to bearing prognostics, this paper reports the design of a state space formulation of nonlinear vibration responses collected from a dynamic rotor-bearing system in order to intelligently predict bearing remaining useful life (RUL. Firstly, analyses of nonlinear vibration responses were conducted to construct a bearing health indicator (BHI so as to assess the current bearing health condition. Secondly, a state space model of the BHI was developed to mathematically track the health evolution of the BHI. Thirdly, unscented particle filtering was used to predict bearing RUL. Lastly, a new bearing acceleration life testing setup was designed to collect natural bearing degradation data, which were used to validate the effectiveness of the proposed bearing prognostic method. Results show that the prediction accuracy of the proposed bearing prognostic method is promising and the proposed bearing prognostic method is able to reflect future bearing health conditions.

Mass media health communication campaigns combined with health-related product distribution: a community guide systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Robinson, Maren N; Tansil, Kristin A; Elder, Randy W; Soler, Robin E; Labre, Magdala P; Mercer, Shawna L; Eroglu, Dogan; Baur, Cynthia; Lyon-Daniel, Katherine; Fridinger, Fred; Sokler, Lynn A; Green, Lawrence W; Miller, Therese; Dearing, James W; Evans, William D; Snyder, Leslie B; Kasisomayajula Viswanath, K; Beistle, Diane M; Chervin, Doryn D; Bernhardt, Jay M; Rimer, Barbara K

2014-09-01

Health communication campaigns including mass media and health-related product distribution have been used to reduce mortality and morbidity through behavior change. The intervention is defined as having two core components reflecting two social marketing principles: (1) promoting behavior change through multiple communication channels, one being mass media, and (2) distributing a free or reduced-price product that facilitates adoption and maintenance of healthy behavior change, sustains cessation of harmful behaviors, or protects against behavior-related disease or injury. Using methods previously developed for the Community Guide, a systematic review (search period, January 1980-December 2009) was conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of health communication campaigns that use multiple channels, including mass media, and distribute health-related products. The primary outcome of interest was use of distributed health-related products. Twenty-two studies that met Community Guide quality criteria were analyzed in 2010. Most studies showed favorable behavior change effects on health-related product use (a median increase of 8.4 percentage points). By product category, median increases in desired behaviors ranged from 4.0 percentage points for condom promotion and distribution campaigns to 10.0 percentage points for smoking-cessation campaigns. Health communication campaigns that combine mass media and other communication channels with distribution of free or reduced-price health-related products are effective in improving healthy behaviors. This intervention is expected to be applicable across U.S. demographic groups, with appropriate population targeting. The ability to draw more specific conclusions about other important social marketing practices is constrained by limited reporting of intervention components and characteristics. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Prognostic factors of whiplash-associated disorders: a systematic review of prospective cohort studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Scholten-Peeters, Gwendolijne G M; Verhagen, Arianne P; Bekkering, Geertruida E; van der Windt, Daniëlle A W M; Barnsley, Les; Oostendorp, Rob A B; Hendriks, Erik J M

2003-07-01

We present a systematic review of prospective cohort studies. Our aim was to assess prognostic factors associated with functional recovery of patients with whiplash injuries. The failure of some patients to recover following whiplash injury has been linked to a number of prognostic factors. However, there is some inconsistency in the literature and there have been no systematic attempts to analyze the level of evidence for prognostic factors in whiplash recovery. Studies were selected for inclusion following a comprehensive search of MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, the database of the Dutch Institute of Allied Health Professions up until April 2002 and hand searches of the reference lists of retrieved articles. Studies were selected if the objective was to assess prognostic factors associated with recovery; the design was a prospective cohort study; the study population included at least an identifiable subgroup of patients suffering from a whiplash injury; and the paper was a full report published in English, German, French or Dutch. The methodological quality was independently assessed by two reviewers. A study was considered to be of 'high quality' if it satisfied at least 50% of the maximum available quality score. Two independent reviewers extracted data and the association between prognostic factors and functional recovery was calculated in terms of risk estimates. Fifty papers reporting on twenty-nine cohorts were included in the review. Twelve cohorts were considered to be of 'high quality'. Because of the heterogeneity of patient selection, type of prognostic factors and outcome measures, no statistical pooling was able to be performed. Strong evidence was found for high initial pain intensity being an adverse prognostic factor. There was strong evidence that for older age, female gender, high acute psychological response, angular deformity of the neck, rear-end collision, and compensation not being associated with an adverse prognosis. Several physical (e

Physics Based Electrolytic Capacitor Degradation Models for Prognostic Studies under Thermal Overstress

Science.gov (United States)

Kulkarni, Chetan S.; Celaya, Jose R.; Goebel, Kai; Biswas, Gautam

2012-01-01

Electrolytic capacitors are used in several applications ranging from power supplies on safety critical avionics equipment to power drivers for electro-mechanical actuators. This makes them good candidates for prognostics and health management research. Prognostics provides a way to assess remaining useful life of components or systems based on their current state of health and their anticipated future use and operational conditions. Past experiences show that capacitors tend to degrade and fail faster under high electrical and thermal stress conditions that they are often subjected to during operations. In this work, we study the effects of accelerated aging due to thermal stress on different sets of capacitors under different conditions. Our focus is on deriving first principles degradation models for thermal stress conditions. Data collected from simultaneous experiments are used to validate the desired models. Our overall goal is to derive accurate models of capacitor degradation, and use them to predict performance changes in DC-DC converters.

Survey on current practices for neurological prognostication after cardiac arrest.

Science.gov (United States)

Friberg, Hans; Cronberg, Tobias; Dünser, Martin W; Duranteau, Jacques; Horn, Janneke; Oddo, Mauro

2015-05-01

To investigate current practices and timing of neurological prognostication in comatose cardiac arrest patients. An anonymous questionnaire was distributed to the 8000 members of the European Society of Intensive Care Medicine during September and October 2012. The survey had 27 questions divided into three categories: background data, clinical data, decision-making and consequences. A total of 1025 respondents (13%) answered the survey with complete forms in more than 90%. Twenty per cent of respondents practiced outside of Europe. Overall, 22% answered that they had national recommendations, with the highest percentage in the Netherlands (>80%). Eighty-nine per cent used induced hypothermia (32-34 °C) for comatose cardiac arrest patients, while 11% did not. Twenty per cent had separate prognostication protocols for hypothermia patients. Seventy-nine per cent recognized that neurological examination alone is not enough to predict outcome and a similar number (76%) used additional methods. Intermittent electroencephalography (EEG), brain computed tomography (CT) scan and evoked potentials (EP) were considered most useful. Poor prognosis was defined as cerebral performance category (CPC) 3-5 (58%) or CPC 4-5 (39%) or other (3%). When prognosis was considered poor, 73% would actively withdraw intensive care while 20% would not and 7% were uncertain. National recommendations for neurological prognostication after cardiac arrest are uncommon and only one physician out of five uses a separate protocol for hypothermia treated patients. A neurological examination alone was considered insufficient to predict outcome in comatose patients and most respondents advocated a multimodal approach: EEG, brain CT and EP were considered most useful. Uncertainty regarding neurological prognostication and decisions on level of care was substantial. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Personality pathology in a forensic setting : prevalence, assessment, and prognostic value for treatment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Spaans, M.A.

2016-01-01

Research on the prevalence, diagnostic and prognostic value for treatment of personality pathology – i.e., both personality disorders and problematic personality characteristics – was carried out within a mainly Dutch forensic mental health setting. Issues such as (dis)simulation and unintentional

Prognostic effect of estrogen receptor status across age in primary breast cancer

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bentzon, Niels; Düring, Maria; Rasmussen, Birgitte Bruun

2008-01-01

Estrogen receptor (ER) status is considered as an important prognostic factor as well as a predictive factor for endocrine responsiveness in breast cancer. We analyzed the distribution of ER status across age and estimated variations in the prognostic impact of ER status related to patients' age...... unchanged in patients who did not receive adjuvant systemic therapy (n = 6,272). Thus, positive ER status does not confer a negative impact on survival in young women as has been previously reported. The inferior prognosis for ER negative patients during the first 5 years after diagnosis changes...... into a slightly superior residual prognosis compared to ER positive patients independent of use of adjuvant systemic therapy. This may have an impact on future designing of guidelines for adjuvant endocrine therapy beyond 5 years....

Prognostic factors for recurrences in neck pain patients up to 1 year after chiropractic care.

Science.gov (United States)

Langenfeld, Anke; Humphreys, B Kim; Swanenburg, Jaap; Peterson, Cynthia K

2015-09-01

Information about recurrence and prognostic factors is important for patients and practitioners to set realistic expectations about the chances of full recovery and to reduce patient anxiety and uncertainty. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to assess recurrence and prognostic factors for neck pain in a chiropractic patient population at 1 year from the start of the current episode. Within a prospective cohort study, 642 neck pain patients were recruited by chiropractors in Switzerland. After a course of chiropractic therapy, patients were followed up for 1 year regarding recurrence of neck pain. A logistic regression analysis was used to assess prognostic factors for recurrent neck pain. The independent variables age, pain medication usage, sex, work status, duration of complaint, previous episodes of neck pain and trauma onset, numerical rating scale, and Bournemouth questionnaire for neck pain were analyzed. Prognostic factors that have been identified in previous studies to influence recovery of neck pain are psychologic distress, poor general health at baseline, and a previous history of pain elsewhere. Five hundred forty five patients (341 females), with a mean age of 42.1 years (SD, 13.1) completed the 1-year follow-up period. Fifty-four participants (11%) were identified as "recurrent." Prognostic factors associated with recurrent neck pain were previous episodes of neck pain and increasing age. The results of this study suggest that recurrence of neck pain within 1 year after chiropractic intervention in Swiss chiropractic patients presenting from varied onsets is low. This study found preliminary findings that older age and a previous episode of neck may be useful predictors of neck pain recurrence within 1 year. Copyright © 2015 National University of Health Sciences. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

No prognostic value added by vitamin D pathway SNPs to current prognostic system for melanoma survival.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Li Luo

Full Text Available The prognostic improvement attributed to genetic markers over current prognostic system has not been well studied for melanoma. The goal of this study is to evaluate the added prognostic value of Vitamin D Pathway (VitD SNPs to currently known clinical and demographic factors such as age, sex, Breslow thickness, mitosis and ulceration (CDF. We utilized two large independent well-characterized melanoma studies: the Genes, Environment, and Melanoma (GEM and MD Anderson studies, and performed variable selection of VitD pathway SNPs and CDF using Random Survival Forest (RSF method in addition to Cox proportional hazards models. The Harrell's C-index was used to compare the performance of model predictability. The population-based GEM study enrolled 3,578 incident cases of cutaneous melanoma (CM, and the hospital-based MD Anderson study consisted of 1,804 CM patients. Including both VitD SNPs and CDF yielded C-index of 0.85, which provided slight but not significant improvement by CDF alone (C-index = 0.83 in the GEM study. Similar results were observed in the independent MD Anderson study (C-index = 0.84 and 0.83, respectively. The Cox model identified no significant associations after adjusting for multiplicity. Our results do not support clinically significant prognostic improvements attributable to VitD pathway SNPs over current prognostic system for melanoma survival.

Intelligent Prognostic Framework for Degradation Assessment and Remaining Useful Life Estimation of Photovoltaic Module

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nabil Laayouj

2016-12-01

Full Text Available All industrial systems and machines are subjected to degradation processes, which can be related to the operating conditions. This degradation can cause unwanted stops at any time and major maintenance work sometimes. The accurate prediction of the remaining useful life (RUL is an important challenge in condition-based maintenance. Prognostic activity allows estimating the RUL before failure occurs and triggering actions to mitigate faults in time when needed. In this study, a new smart prognostic method for photovoltaic module health degradation was developed based on two approaches to achieve more accurate predictions: online diagnosis and data-driven prognosis. This framework of forecasting integrates the strengths of real-time monitoring in the first approach and relevant vector machine in the second. The results show that the proposed method is plausible due to its good prediction of RUL and can be effectively applied to many systems for monitoring and prognostics.

Cytogenetic prognostication within medulloblastoma subgroups.

Science.gov (United States)

Shih, David J H; Northcott, Paul A; Remke, Marc; Korshunov, Andrey; Ramaswamy, Vijay; Kool, Marcel; Luu, Betty; Yao, Yuan; Wang, Xin; Dubuc, Adrian M; Garzia, Livia; Peacock, John; Mack, Stephen C; Wu, Xiaochong; Rolider, Adi; Morrissy, A Sorana; Cavalli, Florence M G; Jones, David T W; Zitterbart, Karel; Faria, Claudia C; Schüller, Ulrich; Kren, Leos; Kumabe, Toshihiro; Tominaga, Teiji; Shin Ra, Young; Garami, Miklós; Hauser, Peter; Chan, Jennifer A; Robinson, Shenandoah; Bognár, László; Klekner, Almos; Saad, Ali G; Liau, Linda M; Albrecht, Steffen; Fontebasso, Adam; Cinalli, Giuseppe; De Antonellis, Pasqualino; Zollo, Massimo; Cooper, Michael K; Thompson, Reid C; Bailey, Simon; Lindsey, Janet C; Di Rocco, Concezio; Massimi, Luca; Michiels, Erna M C; Scherer, Stephen W; Phillips, Joanna J; Gupta, Nalin; Fan, Xing; Muraszko, Karin M; Vibhakar, Rajeev; Eberhart, Charles G; Fouladi, Maryam; Lach, Boleslaw; Jung, Shin; Wechsler-Reya, Robert J; Fèvre-Montange, Michelle; Jouvet, Anne; Jabado, Nada; Pollack, Ian F; Weiss, William A; Lee, Ji-Yeoun; Cho, Byung-Kyu; Kim, Seung-Ki; Wang, Kyu-Chang; Leonard, Jeffrey R; Rubin, Joshua B; de Torres, Carmen; Lavarino, Cinzia; Mora, Jaume; Cho, Yoon-Jae; Tabori, Uri; Olson, James M; Gajjar, Amar; Packer, Roger J; Rutkowski, Stefan; Pomeroy, Scott L; French, Pim J; Kloosterhof, Nanne K; Kros, Johan M; Van Meir, Erwin G; Clifford, Steven C; Bourdeaut, Franck; Delattre, Olivier; Doz, François F; Hawkins, Cynthia E; Malkin, David; Grajkowska, Wieslawa A; Perek-Polnik, Marta; Bouffet, Eric; Rutka, James T; Pfister, Stefan M; Taylor, Michael D

2014-03-20

Medulloblastoma comprises four distinct molecular subgroups: WNT, SHH, Group 3, and Group 4. Current medulloblastoma protocols stratify patients based on clinical features: patient age, metastatic stage, extent of resection, and histologic variant. Stark prognostic and genetic differences among the four subgroups suggest that subgroup-specific molecular biomarkers could improve patient prognostication. Molecular biomarkers were identified from a discovery set of 673 medulloblastomas from 43 cities around the world. Combined risk stratification models were designed based on clinical and cytogenetic biomarkers identified by multivariable Cox proportional hazards analyses. Identified biomarkers were tested using fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH) on a nonoverlapping medulloblastoma tissue microarray (n = 453), with subsequent validation of the risk stratification models. Subgroup information improves the predictive accuracy of a multivariable survival model compared with clinical biomarkers alone. Most previously published cytogenetic biomarkers are only prognostic within a single medulloblastoma subgroup. Profiling six FISH biomarkers (GLI2, MYC, chromosome 11 [chr11], chr14, 17p, and 17q) on formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissues, we can reliably and reproducibly identify very low-risk and very high-risk patients within SHH, Group 3, and Group 4 medulloblastomas. Combining subgroup and cytogenetic biomarkers with established clinical biomarkers substantially improves patient prognostication, even in the context of heterogeneous clinical therapies. The prognostic significance of most molecular biomarkers is restricted to a specific subgroup. We have identified a small panel of cytogenetic biomarkers that reliably identifies very high-risk and very low-risk groups of patients, making it an excellent tool for selecting patients for therapy intensification and therapy de-escalation in future clinical trials.

Tweedie distributions for fitting semicontinuous health care utilization cost data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christoph F. Kurz

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The statistical analysis of health care cost data is often problematic because these data are usually non-negative, right-skewed and have excess zeros for non-users. This prevents the use of linear models based on the Gaussian or Gamma distribution. A common way to counter this is the use of Two-part or Tobit models, which makes interpretation of the results more difficult. In this study, I explore a statistical distribution from the Tweedie family of distributions that can simultaneously model the probability of zero outcome, i.e. of being a non-user of health care utilization and continuous costs for users. Methods I assess the usefulness of the Tweedie model in a Monte Carlo simulation study that addresses two common situations of low and high correlation of the users and the non-users of health care utilization. Furthermore, I compare the Tweedie model with several other models using a real data set from the RAND health insurance experiment. Results I show that the Tweedie distribution fits cost data very well and provides better fit, especially when the number of non-users is low and the correlation between users and non-users is high. Conclusion The Tweedie distribution provides an interesting solution to many statistical problems in health economic analyses.

Do the key prognostic factors for non-specific neck pain have moderation effects? - A study protocol.

Science.gov (United States)

Balasundaram, Arun Prasad; Robinson, Hilde Stendal; Vøllestad, Nina Køpke

2018-05-01

Neck pain is one of the common musculoskeletal conditions prevalent in the general population in Norway. Patients with neck pain, seek treatment from different health professionals such as general practitioners, physiotherapists, chiropractors and alternative medicine practitioners. The interventions for neck pain are typically provided in a primary care or specialised healthcare setting depending on the general practitioners' referral patterns. Clinicians are interested to know the various prognostic factors that can explain the recovery from neck pain. In order to know this, studies have explored and reported on a range of prognostic factors that contribute to the outcomes in patients with neck pain. This information is currently available only for neck pain following whiplash injury that has a traumatic origin. There is limited information on the role of prognostic factors specifically for non-specific neck pain without a traumatic episode. Moreover, there is a lack of data on whether there are interactions (moderation effects) between the prognostic factors. Therefore, we propose a hypothesis to elucidate whether the same set of prognostic factors found in neck pain associated with whiplash injuries are also identified in patients with neck pain without trauma. Additionally, we hypothesize that the association between a prognostic factor and the outcome variable (s) would be dependent on the third variable, thereby confirming the moderation effects. Clinicians could make informed decisions in the clinical management of neck pain with the knowledge of prognostic factors that explain the outcomes. It could also be used for the development of new interventions or for modifying the existing ones. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prognostic Performance Metrics

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This chapter presents several performance metrics for offline evaluation of prognostics algorithms. A brief overview of different methods employed for performance...

Elements of a unified prognostic model for secondary air contamination by resuspension

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Besnus, F.; Garger, E.; Gordeev, S.; Hollaender, W.; Kashparov, V.; Martinez-Serrano, J.; Mironov, V.; Nicholson, K.; Tschiersch, J.; Vintersved, I.

1996-01-01

Based on results of several joint experimental campaigns and an extensive literature survey, a prognostic model was constructed capable of predicting airborne activity concentrations and size distributions as well as soil surface activity concentrations as a function of time and meteorological conditions. Example scenario calculations show that agricultural practices are of lesser importance to secondary air contamination than dust storms immediately after primary deposition and forest fires

Integrated Nationwide Electronic Health Records system: Semi-distributed architecture approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Fragidis, Leonidas L; Chatzoglou, Prodromos D; Aggelidis, Vassilios P

2016-11-14

The integration of heterogeneous electronic health records systems by building an interoperable nationwide electronic health record system provides undisputable benefits in health care, like superior health information quality, medical errors prevention and cost saving. This paper proposes a semi-distributed system architecture approach for an integrated national electronic health record system incorporating the advantages of the two dominant approaches, the centralized architecture and the distributed architecture. The high level design of the main elements for the proposed architecture is provided along with diagrams of execution and operation and data synchronization architecture for the proposed solution. The proposed approach effectively handles issues related to redundancy, consistency, security, privacy, availability, load balancing, maintainability, complexity and interoperability of citizen's health data. The proposed semi-distributed architecture offers a robust interoperability framework without healthcare providers to change their local EHR systems. It is a pragmatic approach taking into account the characteristics of the Greek national healthcare system along with the national public administration data communication network infrastructure, for achieving EHR integration with acceptable implementation cost.

Distinct distribution and prognostic significance of molecular subtypes of breast cancer in Chinese women: a population-based cohort study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cai Qiuyin

2011-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Molecular classification of breast cancer is an important prognostic factor. The distribution of molecular subtypes of breast cancer and their prognostic value has not been well documented in Asians. Methods A total of 2,791 breast cancer patients recruited for a population-based cohort study were evaluated for molecular subtypes of breast cancer by immunohistochemical assays. Data on clinicopathological characteristics were confirmed by centralized pathology review. The average follow-up of the patients was 53.4 months. Overall and disease-free survival by molecular subtypes of breast cancer were evaluated. Results The prevalence of the luminal A, luminal B, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2, and triple-negative subtypes were 48.6%, 16.7%, 13.7%, and 12.9%, respectively. The luminal A subtype was more likely to be diagnosed in older women (P = 0.03 and had a stronger correlation with favorable clinicopathological factors (smaller tumor size, lower histologic grade, and earlier TNM stage than the triple-negative or HER2 subtypes. Women with triple-negative breast cancer had a higher frequency of family history of breast cancer than women with other subtypes (P = 0.048. The 5-year overall/disease-free survival percentages for the luminal A, luminal B, HER2, and triple-negative subtypes were 92.9%/88.6%, 88.6%/85.1%, 83.2%/79.1%, and 80.7%/76.0%, respectively. A similar pattern was observed in multivariate analyses. Immunotherapy was associated with improved overall and disease-free survival for luminal A breast cancer, but reduced disease-free survival (HR = 2.21, 95% CI, 1.09-4.48 for the HER2 subtype of breast cancer. Conclusions The triple-negative and HER2 subtypes were associated with poorer outcomes compared with the luminal A subtype among these Chinese women. The HER2 subtype was more prevalent in this Chinese population compared with Western populations, suggesting the importance of standardized HER2

Risk distribution across multiple health insurance funds in rural Tanzania

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Chomi, Eunice Nahyuha; Mujinja, Phares Gamba; Enemark, Ulrika

2014-01-01

cross-subsidisation across the funds. This paper analyses whether the risk distribution varies across the Community Health Fund (CHF) and National Health Insurance Fund (NHIF) in two districts in Tanzania. Specifically we aim to 1) identify risk factors associated with increased utilisation of health...... services and 2) compare the distribution of identified risk factors among the CHF, NHIF and non-member households. METHODS: Data was collected from a survey of 695 households. A multivariate logisitic regression model was used to identify risk factors for increased health care utilisation. Chi-square tests...... were performed to test whether the distribution of identified risk factors varied across the CHF, NHIF and non-member households. RESULTS: There was a higher concentration of identified risk factors among CHF households compared to those of the NHIF. Non-member households have a similar wealth status...

Conceptualizing prognostic awareness in advanced cancer: a systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Applebaum, Allison J; Kolva, Elissa A; Kulikowski, Julia R; Jacobs, Jordana D; DeRosa, Antonio; Lichtenthal, Wendy G; Olden, Megan E; Rosenfeld, Barry; Breitbart, William

2014-09-01

This systematic review synthesizes the complex literature on prognostic awareness in cancer. A total of 37 studies examining cancer patients' understanding of their prognosis were included. Prognostic awareness definitions and assessment methods were inconsistent across studies. A surprisingly high percentage of patients (up to 75%) were unaware of their poor prognosis, and in several studies, even their cancer diagnosis (up to 96%), particularly in studies conducted outside of North America. This review highlights surprisingly low rates of prognostic awareness in patients with advanced cancer as well as discrepancies in prognostic awareness assessment, suggesting the need for empirically validated measures of prognostic awareness. © The Author(s) 2013.

Power distribution, the environment, and public health. A state-level analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boyce, James K.; Klemer, Andrew R.; Templet, Paul H.; Willis, Cleve E.

1999-01-01

This paper examines relationships among power distribution, the environment, and public health by means of a cross-sectional analysis of the 50 US states. A measure of inter-state variations in power distribution is derived from data on voter participation, tax fairness, Medicaid access, and educational attainment. We develop and estimate a recursive model linking the distribution of power to environmental policy, environmental stress, and public health. The results support the hypothesis that greater power inequality leads to weaker environmental policies, which in turn lead to greater environmental degradation and to adverse public health outcomes

Power distribution, the environment, and public health. A state-level analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boyce, James K. [Department of Economics, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003 (United States); Klemer, Andrew R. [Department of Biology, University of Minnesota, Duluth, MN (United States); Templet, Paul H. [Institute of Environmental Studies, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA (United States); Willis, Cleve E. [Department of Resource Economics, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003 (United States)

1999-04-15

This paper examines relationships among power distribution, the environment, and public health by means of a cross-sectional analysis of the 50 US states. A measure of inter-state variations in power distribution is derived from data on voter participation, tax fairness, Medicaid access, and educational attainment. We develop and estimate a recursive model linking the distribution of power to environmental policy, environmental stress, and public health. The results support the hypothesis that greater power inequality leads to weaker environmental policies, which in turn lead to greater environmental degradation and to adverse public health outcomes.

Power distribution, the environment, and public health. A state-level analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boyce, James K. [Department of Economics, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003 (United States); Klemer, Andrew R. [Department of Biology, University of Minnesota, Duluth, MN (United States); Templet, Paul H. [Institute of Environmental Studies, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA (United States); Willis, Cleve E. [Department of Resource Economics, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003 (United States)

1999-04-15

This paper examines relationships among power distribution, the environment, and public health by means of a cross-sectional analysis of the 50 US states. A measure of inter-state variations in power distribution is derived from data on voter participation, tax fairness, Medicaid access, and educational attainment. We develop and estimate a recursive model linking the distribution of power to environmental policy, environmental stress, and public health. The results support the hypothesis that greater power inequality leads to weaker environmental policies, which in turn lead to greater environmental degradation and to adverse public health outcomes

Breast MR imaging: correlation of high resolution dynamic MR findings with prognostic factors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Shin Ho; Cho, Nariya; Chung, Hye Kyung; Kim, Seung Ja; Cho, Kyung Soo; Moon, Woo Kyung; Cho, Joo Hee

2005-01-01

We wanted to correlate the kinetic and morphologic MR findings of invasive breast cancer with the classical and molecular prognostic factors. Eighty-seven patients with invasive ductal carcinoma NOS underwent dynamic MR imaging at 1.5 T, and with using the T1-weighted 3D FLASH technique. The morphologic findings (shape, margin, internal enhancement of the mass or the enhancement distribution and the internal enhancement of any non-mass lesion) and the kinetic findings (the initial phase and the delayed phase of the time-signal. Intensity curve) were interpreted using a ACR BI-RADS-MRI lexicon. We correlate MR findings with histopathologic prognostic factors (tumor size, lymph node status and tumor grade) and the immunohistochemically detected biomarkers (ER, PR, ρ 53, c-erbB-2, EGFR and Ki-67). Univariate and multivariate statistical analyses were than performed. Among the MR findings, a spiculated margin, rim enhancement and washout were significantly correlated with the prognostic factors. A spiculated margin was independently associated with the established predictors of a good prognosis (a lower histologic and nuclear grade, positive ER and PR) and rim enhancement was associated with a poor prognosis (a higher histologic and nuclear grade, negative ER and PR). Wash out was a independent predictor of Ki-67 activity. Some of the findings of high resolution dynamic MR imaging were associated with the prognostic factors, and these findings may predict the prognosis of breast cancer

Distribution and Utilization of Health Facilities in Calabar Metropolis ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The level of accessibility increases with increasing utilization. Distance was a barrier to the utilization of health facilities due to the uneven distribution of health facilities and the inability of patients to overcome economic distance. Greater investment by government in the health sector would guarantee more equitable access ...

Accelerated Aging System for Prognostics of Power Semiconductor Devices

Science.gov (United States)

Celaya, Jose R.; Vashchenko, Vladislav; Wysocki, Philip; Saha, Sankalita

2010-01-01

Prognostics is an engineering discipline that focuses on estimation of the health state of a component and the prediction of its remaining useful life (RUL) before failure. Health state estimation is based on actual conditions and it is fundamental for the prediction of RUL under anticipated future usage. Failure of electronic devices is of great concern as future aircraft will see an increase of electronics to drive and control safety-critical equipment throughout the aircraft. Therefore, development of prognostics solutions for electronics is of key importance. This paper presents an accelerated aging system for gate-controlled power transistors. This system allows for the understanding of the effects of failure mechanisms, and the identification of leading indicators of failure which are essential in the development of physics-based degradation models and RUL prediction. In particular, this system isolates electrical overstress from thermal overstress. Also, this system allows for a precise control of internal temperatures, enabling the exploration of intrinsic failure mechanisms not related to the device packaging. By controlling the temperature within safe operation levels of the device, accelerated aging is induced by electrical overstress only, avoiding the generation of thermal cycles. The temperature is controlled by active thermal-electric units. Several electrical and thermal signals are measured in-situ and recorded for further analysis in the identification of leading indicators of failures. This system, therefore, provides a unique capability in the exploration of different failure mechanisms and the identification of precursors of failure that can be used to provide a health management solution for electronic devices.

Prognostic factors in Guillain-Barre syndrome

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Semra Mungan

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Objective: Guillain–Barre syndrome (GBS is an immune-mediated disorder of peripheral nerves resulting as acute inflammatory demyelinating polyradiculoneuropathy. GBS has a heterogeneous clinical course and laboratory findings. Acute onset and progressive course, and is usually associated with a good prognosis but some forms have a poor prognosis. Factors that can affect the prognosis of GBS have been investigated in several studies. Assessment of poor prognostic factors of GBS plays a vital role in the management and monitorization of patients. Methods: In this retrospective study of patients admitted to the acute phase of GBS removing clinical and laboratory profiles and was planned to investigate the prognostic factors. Results: Totally 23 patients (Female/male: 16/7 were recruited. Mean age was 47 (range: 17-70 years. Statistically significant poor prognostic factors were advanced age (p=0.042, erythrocyte sedimentation rate (p=0.027 and serum albumin level (p=0.007. Conclusion: Advanced age, increased ESR and decreased albumin levels were found as poor prognostic factors in GBS.

A Novel UAV Electric Propulsion Testbed for Diagnostics and Prognostics

Science.gov (United States)

Gorospe, George E., Jr.; Kulkarni, Chetan S.

2017-01-01

This paper presents a novel hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testbed for systems level diagnostics and prognostics of an electric propulsion system used in UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicle). Referencing the all electric, Edge 540T aircraft used in science and research by NASA Langley Flight Research Center, the HIL testbed includes an identical propulsion system, consisting of motors, speed controllers and batteries. Isolated under a controlled laboratory environment, the propulsion system has been instrumented for advanced diagnostics and prognostics. To produce flight like loading on the system a slave motor is coupled to the motor under test (MUT) and provides variable mechanical resistance, and the capability of introducing nondestructive mechanical wear-like frictional loads on the system. This testbed enables the verification of mathematical models of each component of the propulsion system, the repeatable generation of flight-like loads on the system for fault analysis, test-to-failure scenarios, and the development of advanced system level diagnostics and prognostics methods. The capabilities of the testbed are extended through the integration of a LabVIEW-based client for the Live Virtual Constructive Distributed Environment (LVCDC) Gateway which enables both the publishing of generated data for remotely located observers and prognosers and the synchronization the testbed propulsion system with vehicles in the air. The developed HIL testbed gives researchers easy access to a scientifically relevant portion of the aircraft without the overhead and dangers encountered during actual flight.

Prognostic Assessment in Patients with Indolent B-Cell Lymphomas

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Luca Arcaini

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Follicular lymphoma (FL is an indolent lymphoma with long median survival. Many studies have been performed to build up prognostic scores potentially useful to identify patients with poorer outcome. In 2004, an international consortium coordinated by the International Follicular Lymphoma Prognostic Factor project was established and a new prognostic study was launched (FLIPI2 using progression-free survival (PFS as main endpoint and integrating all the modern parameters prospectively collected. Low-grade non-Hodgkin lymphomas were once considered as a heterogenous group of lymphomas characterized by an indolent clinical course. Each entity is characterized by unique clinicobiologic features. Some studies have been focused on prognostic factors in single lymphoma subtypes, with the development of specific-entity scores based on retrospective series, for instance splenic marginal zone lymphoma (SMZL. A widely accepted prognostic tool for clinical usage for indolent non-follicular B-cell lymphomas is largely awaited. In this paper we summarized the current evidence regarding prognostic assessment of indolent follicular and non-follicular lymphomas.

Symptomatic spinal metastasis: A systematic literature review of the preoperative prognostic factors for survival, neurological, functional and quality of life in surgically treated patients and methodological recommendations for prognostic studies.

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Anick Nater

Full Text Available While several clinical prediction rules (CPRs of survival exist for patients with symptomatic spinal metastasis (SSM, these have variable prognostic ability and there is no recognized CPR for health related quality of life (HRQoL. We undertook a critical appraisal of the literature to identify key preoperative prognostic factors of clinical outcomes in patients with SSM who were treated surgically. The results of this study could be used to modify existing or develop new CPRs.Seven electronic databases were searched (1990-2015, without language restriction, to identify studies that performed multivariate analysis of preoperative predictors of survival, neurological, functional and HRQoL outcomes in surgical patients with SSM. Individual studies were assessed for class of evidence. The strength of the overall body of evidence was evaluated using GRADE for each predictor.Among 4,818 unique citations, 17 were included; all were in English, rated Class III and focused on survival, revealing a total of 46 predictors. The strength of the overall body of evidence was very low for 39 and low for 7 predictors. Due to considerable heterogeneity in patient samples and prognostic factors investigated as well as several methodological issues, our results had a moderately high risk of bias and were difficult to interpret.The quality of evidence for predictors of survival was, at best, low. We failed to identify studies that evaluated preoperative prognostic factors for neurological, functional, or HRQoL outcomes in surgical patients with SSM. We formulated methodological recommendations for prognostic studies to promote acquiring high-quality evidence to better estimate predictor effect sizes to improve patient education, surgical decision-making and development of CPRs.

A comprehensive review of nongenetic prognostic and predictive factors influencing the heterogeneity of outcomes in advanced non-small-cell lung cancer

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Cuyún Carter G

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Gebra Cuyún Carter,1 Amy M Barrett,2 James A Kaye,3 Astra M Liepa,1 Katherine B Winfree,1 William J John1 1Eli Lilly and Company, Indianapolis, IN, USA; 2RTI Health Solutions, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA; 3RTI Health Solutions, Waltham, MA, USA Abstract: While there have been advances in treatment options for those with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer, unmet medical needs remain, partly due to the heterogeneity of treatment effect observed among patients. The goals of this literature review were to provide updated information to complement past reviews and to identify a comprehensive set of nongenetic prognostic and predictive baseline factors that may account for heterogeneity of outcomes in advanced non-small-cell lung cancer. A review of the literature between 2000 and 2010 was performed using PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane Library. All relevant studies that met the inclusion criteria were selected and data elements were abstracted. A classification system was developed to evaluate the level of evidence for each study. A total of 54 studies were selected for inclusion. Patient-related factors (eg, performance status, sex, and age were the most extensively researched nongenetic prognostic factors, followed by disease stage and histology. Moderately researched prognostic factors were weight-related variables and number or site of metastases, and the least studied were comorbidities, previous therapy, smoking status, hemoglobin level, and health-related quality of life/symptom severity. The prognostic factors with the most consistently demonstrated associations with outcomes were performance status, number or site of metastases, previous therapy, smoking status, and health-related quality of life. Of the small number of studies that assessed predictive factors, those that were found to be significantly predictive of outcomes were performance status, age, disease stage, previous therapy, race, smoking status, sex, and histology. These

An Approach to Prognostic Decision Making in the Aerospace Domain

Science.gov (United States)

2012-09-01

prediction of the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) and End of Life ( EOL ) as the goal of prognostics (Daigle & Goebel, 2010; Saxena et al., 2008). We believe...the drive). Either depletion of energy or com- plete component failure signify EOL . The goal of the PDM system is to reassess the original mission plan...either energy depletion or vehicle health deterioration resulted in EOL . PPG was allocated a limited number of utility function calls (UFC) to test

Staff and bed distribution in public sector mental health services in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Background. The Eastern Cape Province of South Africa is a resource-limited province with a fragmented mental health service. Objective. To determine the current context of public sector mental health services in terms of staff and bed distribution, and how this corresponds to the population distribution in the province.

Bayesian Framework Approach for Prognostic Studies in Electrolytic Capacitor under Thermal Overstress Conditions

Science.gov (United States)

2012-09-01

make end of life ( EOL ) and remaining useful life (RUL) estimations. Model-based prognostics approaches perform these tasks with the help of first...in parameters Degradation Modeling Parameter estimation Prediction Thermal / Electrical Stress Experimental Data State Space model RUL EOL ...distribution at given single time point kP , and use this for multi-step predictions to EOL . There are several methods which exits for selecting the sigma

Blockchain distributed ledger technologies for biomedical and health care applications.

Science.gov (United States)

Kuo, Tsung-Ting; Kim, Hyeon-Eui; Ohno-Machado, Lucila

2017-11-01

To introduce blockchain technologies, including their benefits, pitfalls, and the latest applications, to the biomedical and health care domains. Biomedical and health care informatics researchers who would like to learn about blockchain technologies and their applications in the biomedical/health care domains. The covered topics include: (1) introduction to the famous Bitcoin crypto-currency and the underlying blockchain technology; (2) features of blockchain; (3) review of alternative blockchain technologies; (4) emerging nonfinancial distributed ledger technologies and applications; (5) benefits of blockchain for biomedical/health care applications when compared to traditional distributed databases; (6) overview of the latest biomedical/health care applications of blockchain technologies; and (7) discussion of the potential challenges and proposed solutions of adopting blockchain technologies in biomedical/health care domains. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association.

Prognostics of Power MOSFET

Science.gov (United States)

Celaya, Jose Ramon; Saxena, Abhinav; Vashchenko, Vladislay; Saha, Sankalita; Goebel, Kai Frank

2011-01-01

This paper demonstrates how to apply prognostics to power MOSFETs (metal oxide field effect transistor). The methodology uses thermal cycling to age devices and Gaussian process regression to perform prognostics. The approach is validated with experiments on 100V power MOSFETs. The failure mechanism for the stress conditions is determined to be die-attachment degradation. Change in ON-state resistance is used as a precursor of failure due to its dependence on junction temperature. The experimental data is augmented with a finite element analysis simulation that is based on a two-transistor model. The simulation assists in the interpretation of the degradation phenomena and SOA (safe operation area) change.

Individual participant data meta-analysis of prognostic factor studies: state of the art?

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Abo-Zaid Ghada

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Prognostic factors are associated with the risk of a subsequent outcome in people with a given disease or health condition. Meta-analysis using individual participant data (IPD, where the raw data are synthesised from multiple studies, has been championed as the gold-standard for synthesising prognostic factor studies. We assessed the feasibility and conduct of this approach. Methods A systematic review to identify published IPD meta-analyses of prognostic factors studies, followed by detailed assessment of a random sample of 20 articles published from 2006. Six of these 20 articles were from the IMPACT (International Mission for Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials in traumatic brain injury collaboration, for which additional information was also used from simultaneously published companion papers. Results Forty-eight published IPD meta-analyses of prognostic factors were identified up to March 2009. Only three were published before 2000 but thereafter a median of four articles exist per year, with traumatic brain injury the most active research field. Availability of IPD offered many advantages, such as checking modelling assumptions; analysing variables on their continuous scale with the possibility of assessing for non-linear relationships; and obtaining results adjusted for other variables. However, researchers also faced many challenges, such as large cost and time required to obtain and clean IPD; unavailable IPD for some studies; different sets of prognostic factors in each study; and variability in study methods of measurement. The IMPACT initiative is a leading example, and had generally strong design, methodological and statistical standards. Elsewhere, standards are not always as high and improvements in the conduct of IPD meta-analyses of prognostic factor studies are often needed; in particular, continuous variables are often categorised without reason; publication bias and availability bias are rarely

Concordance for prognostic models with competing risks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wolbers, Marcel; Blanche, Paul; Koller, Michael T

2014-01-01

The concordance probability is a widely used measure to assess discrimination of prognostic models with binary and survival endpoints. We formally define the concordance probability for a prognostic model of the absolute risk of an event of interest in the presence of competing risks and relate i...

Gastric lymphomas in Turkey. Analysis of prognostic factors with special emphasis on flow cytometric DNA content.

Science.gov (United States)

Aydin, Z D; Barista, I; Canpinar, H; Sungur, A; Tekuzman, G

2000-07-01

In contrast to DNA ploidy, to the authors' knowledge the prognostic significance of S-phase fraction (SPF) in gastric lymphomas has not been determined. In the current study, the prognostic significance of various parameters including SPF and DNA aneuploidy were analyzed and some distinct epidemiologic and biologic features of gastric lymphomas in Turkey were found. A series of 78 gastric lymphoma patients followed at Hacettepe University is reported. DNA flow cytometry was performed for 34 patients. The influence of various parameters on survival was investigated with the log rank test. The Cox proportional hazards model was fitted to identify independent prognostic factors. The median age of the patients was 50 years. There was no correlation between patient age and tumor grade. DNA content analysis revealed 4 of the 34 cases to be aneuploid with DNA index values < 1.0. The mean SPF was 33.5%. In the univariate analysis, surgical resection of the tumor, modified Ann Arbor stage, performance status, response to first-line chemotherapy, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) level, and SPF were important prognostic factors for disease free survival (DFS). The same parameters, excluding LDH level, were important for determining overall survival (OS). In the multivariate analysis, surgical resection of the tumor, disease stage, performance status, and age were found to be important prognostic factors for OS. To the authors' knowledge the current study is the first to demonstrate the prognostic significance of SPF in gastric lymphomas. The distinguishing features of Turkish gastric lymphoma patients are 1) DNA indices of aneuploid cases that all are < 1.0, which is a unique feature; 2) a lower percentage of aneuploid cases; 3) a higher SPF; 4) a younger age distribution; and 5) lack of an age-grade correlation. The authors conclude that gastric lymphomas in Turkey have distinct biologic and epidemiologic characteristics. Copyright 2000 American Cancer Society.

PSA Density as a prognostic factor in prostate cancer patients treated with radiotherapy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lankford, Scott; Pollack, Alan; Zagars, Gunar K

1995-07-01

Purpose/Objective: The pretreatment serum prostate specific antigen level (PSAL) is the most significant predictor of biochemical failure in patients treated with definitive radiotherapy. While one report indicates that PSA density (PSAD) is an important prognostic factor for patients treated with radiotherapy, another claims that it adds nothing to that seen with PSAL. We describe here a comparative analysis of the prognostic value of PSAL and PSAD using the endpoints of local control (LC), freedom from distant metastasis (FFDM), freedom from biochemical failure (FFBF), and freedom from any failure (FFAF, biochemical and/or clinical failure). Materials and Methods: There were 353 patients who between 1987-1993 were treated for regionally localized adenocarcinoma of the prostate and in whom PSAL and pretreatment prostate volume by ultrasound were available. External beam radiotherapy was administered to 334 patients using a four field box with high energy photons to {<=}70 Gy in 35 fractions. The remainder received between 76-78 Gy using conformal radiotherapy. The mean and median doses were 66.8 Gy and 66.0 Gy. Median follow-up for those living was 27 mo. The mean PSAL was 12.0 ng/ml with a median of 9.3 ng/ml. The PSAL was divided into 4 groups that we have described previously as correlating strongly with LC, FFBF, and FFAF; there were 64 patients with a PSA of {<=}4, 133 with >4 and {<=}10, 107 with >10 and {<=}20, and 49 with >20 ng/ml. PSAD was calculated by dividing the PSAL by the pretreatment prostate volume (in cc). The PSAD was divided into 4 groups based on the frequency distribution, which was not normally distributed. The subdivisions were 110 patients with a PSAD of {<=}0.2, 113 with {<=}0.2 and {<=}0.4, 87 with >0.4 and {<=}0.8, and 43 with >0.8. Patient breakdown by Stage was 106 with T1, 130 with T2, and 117 with T3/T4 disease. Patient breakdown by Gleason score was 76 patients with tumor scores of 2-4, 151 with scores of 5 or 6, 83 with a score

Utility of Hippocrates' prognostic aphorism to predict death in the modern era: prospective cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

St John, Philip D; Montgomery, Patrick R

2014-12-15

To determine if one of Hippocrates' aphorisms, identifying good cognition and good appetite as two prognostic factors, predicts death in community living older adults in the modern era. Secondary analysis of an existing population based cohort study. Manitoba Study of Health and Aging. 1751 community living adults aged more than 65 enrolled in the Manitoba Study of Health and Aging in 1991 and followed over five years. Time to death. We recreated the hippocratic prognosticator using an item that measures appetite drawn from the Center for Epidemiologic Studies-depression subscale, and the mini-mental state examination, with a score of >25 being considered as normal. People with normal cognition and appetite were compared with those with either poor cognition or poor appetite. We constructed Cox regression models, adjusted for age, sex, education, and functional status. The prognostic aphorism predicted death, with an unadjusted hazard ratio of 2.37 (95% confidence interval 1.93 to 2.88) and a hazard ratio of 1.71 (1.37 to 2.12) adjusted for age, sex, and education. Both poor appetite and poor cognition predicted death. The sensitivity and specificity were not, however, sufficient for the measure to be used alone. An aphorism devised by Hippocrates millennia ago can predict death in the modern era. © St John et al 2014.

Utility of Hippocrates’ prognostic aphorism to predict death in the modern era: prospective cohort study

Science.gov (United States)

Montgomery, Patrick R

2014-01-01

Objective To determine if one of Hippocrates’ aphorisms, identifying good cognition and good appetite as two prognostic factors, predicts death in community living older adults in the modern era. Design Secondary analysis of an existing population based cohort study. Setting Manitoba Study of Health and Aging. Participants 1751 community living adults aged more than 65 enrolled in the Manitoba Study of Health and Aging in 1991 and followed over five years. Main outcome measure Time to death. Methods We recreated the hippocratic prognosticator using an item that measures appetite drawn from the Center for Epidemiologic Studies-depression subscale, and the mini-mental state examination, with a score of >25 being considered as normal. People with normal cognition and appetite were compared with those with either poor cognition or poor appetite. We constructed Cox regression models, adjusted for age, sex, education, and functional status. Results The prognostic aphorism predicted death, with an unadjusted hazard ratio of 2.37 (95% confidence interval 1.93 to 2.88) and a hazard ratio of 1.71 (1.37 to 2.12) adjusted for age, sex, and education. Both poor appetite and poor cognition predicted death. The sensitivity and specificity were not, however, sufficient for the measure to be used alone. Conclusion An aphorism devised by Hippocrates millennia ago can predict death in the modern era. PMID:25512328

Value of five-stage prognostic system in predicting short-term outcome of patients with liver cirrhosis

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TIAN Yan

2015-03-01

Full Text Available ObjectiveTo evaluate the clinical value of five-stage prognostic system in predicting the short-term outcome of patients with liver cirrhosis, and to compare it with the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP and Model of End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD scores. MethodsTwo hundred and one hospitalized patients with liver cirrhosis in the Department of Gastroenterology in the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University from January 2011 to January 2014 were enrolled in the study and followed up for at least six months. Patients were classified accorded to the five-stage prognostic system, and the mortality rate in each stage was measured. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve and the area under the ROC curve (AUC were used to assess the accuracy of the five-stage prognostic system in predicting the short-term death risk of cirrhotic patients, which was then compared with the CTP and MELD scores. Categorical data were analyzed by chi-square test. Comparison of AUC was made by normal distribution Z test. Spearman′s correlation analysis was used to investigate the correlation of the five-stage prognostic system with the CTP and MELD scores. ResultsThe study used the admission time as the starting point and the death of patients or study termination time as the endpoint. Among the 201 patients, 50 (24.9% died within six months. Based on the five-stage prognostic system, the mortality rates for stages 1 to 5 were 0(0/11, 0（0/18, 4.2%（2/48, 16.3% (7/43, and 50.6%（41/81, respectively. In patients with decompensated cirrhosis (stages 3, 4, and 5, the mortality increased with stage, and the differences in mortality between patients in stages 3 and 4, 3 and 5, and 4 and 5 were all significant (χ2=3.89, 35.33, and 13.96, respectively; P=0.049, 0.000, and 0.049, respectively. The AUC for the five-stage prognostic system, five-stage prognostic system combined with CTP and MELD score, and CTP score were 0820, 0.915, 0.888, and 0

Fatigue as prognostic risk marker of mental sickness absence in white collar employees.

Science.gov (United States)

Roelen, C A M; Heymans, M W; van Rhenen, W; Groothoff, J W; Twisk, J W R; Bültmann, U

2014-06-01

To investigate fatigue as prognostic risk marker for identifying working employees at risk of long-term sickness absence (SA). At baseline, fatigue was measured in 633 white collar employees with the checklist individual strength (CIS) including scales for fatigue severity, reduced concentration, reduced motivation, and reduced physical activity. SA was medically certified by an occupational physician in the 3rd or 4th SA week with diagnostic codes according to the 10th version of the International Classification of Diseases. Medically certified SA was retrieved at the individual level from an occupational health register after 1-year follow-up. CIS scores were investigated as prognostic risk markers predicting medically certified SA and particularly SA certified as mental SA. 614 employees (N = 378 men and N = 236 women) had complete data and were eligible for analysis; 63 (10 %) had medically certified SA of whom 39 (6 %) had mental SA. Fatigue severity and total CIS scores were associated with medically certified SA in men, but poorly discriminated between men with and without medically certified SA. Fatigue severity, reduced concentration, reduced motivation, and total CIS scores were also associated with mental SA in men. CIS and its reduced concentration scale were valid prognostic risk markers of mental SA. CONCLUSION Fatigue was a prognostic risk marker of mental SA in white collar men. The CIS should be further validated as a screening tool for the risk of mental SA in white collar working populations.

Distinguishing prognostic and predictive biomarkers: An information theoretic approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Sechidis, Konstantinos; Papangelou, Konstantinos; Metcalfe, Paul D; Svensson, David; Weatherall, James; Brown, Gavin

2018-05-02

The identification of biomarkers to support decision-making is central to personalised medicine, in both clinical and research scenarios. The challenge can be seen in two halves: identifying predictive markers, which guide the development/use of tailored therapies; and identifying prognostic markers, which guide other aspects of care and clinical trial planning, i.e. prognostic markers can be considered as covariates for stratification. Mistakenly assuming a biomarker to be predictive, when it is in fact largely prognostic (and vice-versa) is highly undesirable, and can result in financial, ethical and personal consequences. We present a framework for data-driven ranking of biomarkers on their prognostic/predictive strength, using a novel information theoretic method. This approach provides a natural algebra to discuss and quantify the individual predictive and prognostic strength, in a self-consistent mathematical framework. Our contribution is a novel procedure, INFO+, which naturally distinguishes the prognostic vs predictive role of each biomarker and handles higher order interactions. In a comprehensive empirical evaluation INFO+ outperforms more complex methods, most notably when noise factors dominate, and biomarkers are likely to be falsely identified as predictive, when in fact they are just strongly prognostic. Furthermore, we show that our methods can be 1-3 orders of magnitude faster than competitors, making it useful for biomarker discovery in 'big data' scenarios. Finally, we apply our methods to identify predictive biomarkers on two real clinical trials, and introduce a new graphical representation that provides greater insight into the prognostic and predictive strength of each biomarker. R implementations of the suggested methods are available at https://github.com/sechidis. konstantinos.sechidis@manchester.ac.uk. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Prognostic DNA Methylation Markers for Prostate Cancer

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Siri H. Strand

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Prostate cancer (PC is the most commonly diagnosed neoplasm and the third most common cause of cancer-related death amongst men in the Western world. PC is a clinically highly heterogeneous disease, and distinction between aggressive and indolent disease is a major challenge for the management of PC. Currently, no biomarkers or prognostic tools are able to accurately predict tumor progression at the time of diagnosis. Thus, improved biomarkers for PC prognosis are urgently needed. This review focuses on the prognostic potential of DNA methylation biomarkers for PC. Epigenetic changes are hallmarks of PC and associated with malignant initiation as well as tumor progression. Moreover, DNA methylation is the most frequently studied epigenetic alteration in PC, and the prognostic potential of DNA methylation markers for PC has been demonstrated in multiple studies. The most promising methylation marker candidates identified so far include PITX2, C1orf114 (CCDC181 and the GABRE~miR-452~miR-224 locus, in addition to the three-gene signature AOX1/C1orf114/HAPLN3. Several other biomarker candidates have also been investigated, but with less stringent clinical validation and/or conflicting evidence regarding their possible prognostic value available at this time. Here, we review the current evidence for the prognostic potential of DNA methylation markers in PC.

Accurate bearing remaining useful life prediction based on Weibull distribution and artificial neural network

Science.gov (United States)

Ben Ali, Jaouher; Chebel-Morello, Brigitte; Saidi, Lotfi; Malinowski, Simon; Fnaiech, Farhat

2015-05-01

Accurate remaining useful life (RUL) prediction of critical assets is an important challenge in condition based maintenance to improve reliability and decrease machine's breakdown and maintenance's cost. Bearing is one of the most important components in industries which need to be monitored and the user should predict its RUL. The challenge of this study is to propose an original feature able to evaluate the health state of bearings and to estimate their RUL by Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) techniques. In this paper, the proposed method is based on the data-driven prognostic approach. The combination of Simplified Fuzzy Adaptive Resonance Theory Map (SFAM) neural network and Weibull distribution (WD) is explored. WD is used just in the training phase to fit measurement and to avoid areas of fluctuation in the time domain. SFAM training process is based on fitted measurements at present and previous inspection time points as input. However, the SFAM testing process is based on real measurements at present and previous inspections. Thanks to the fuzzy learning process, SFAM has an important ability and a good performance to learn nonlinear time series. As output, seven classes are defined; healthy bearing and six states for bearing degradation. In order to find the optimal RUL prediction, a smoothing phase is proposed in this paper. Experimental results show that the proposed method can reliably predict the RUL of rolling element bearings (REBs) based on vibration signals. The proposed prediction approach can be applied to prognostic other various mechanical assets.

Should culture affect practice? A comparison of prognostic discussions in consultations with immigrant versus native-born cancer patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Butow, Phyllis N; Sze, Ming; Eisenbruch, Maurice; Bell, Melaine L; Aldridge, Lynley J; Abdo, Sarah; Tanious, Michelle; Dong, Skye; Iedema, Rick; Vardy, Janette; Hui, Rina; Boyle, Francis; Liauw, Winston; Goldstein, David

2013-08-01

Poor prognosis is difficult to impart, particularly across a cultural divide. This study compared prognostic communication with immigrants (with and without interpreters) versus native-born patients in audio-taped oncology consultations. Ten oncologists, 78 patients (31 Australian-born, 47 immigrants) and 115 family members participated. The first two consultations after diagnosis of incurable disease were audiotaped, transcribed and coded. 142 consultations were included in the analysis. Fifty percent of doctor and 59% of patient prognostic speech units were not interpreted or interpreted non-equivalently when an interpreter was present. Immigrant status predicted few prognostic facts, and oncologist characteristics no prognostic facts, disclosed. Oncologists were significantly less likely to convey hope to immigrants (p=0.0004), and more likely to use medical jargon (p=0.009) than with Australian-born patients. Incurable disease status and a limited life span were commonly acknowledged, generally with no timeframe provided. Physical issues were discussed more commonly than emotional aspects. While culture did not appear to influence doctor speech, interpreters filtered or blocked much prognostic communication. Initiatives to empower all patients to attain needed information, optimise communication when an interpreter is present and train cancer health professionals in culturally appropriate care, are urgently required. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bayesian based Prognostic Model for Predictive Maintenance of Offshore Wind Farms

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Asgarpour, Masoud; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

2018-01-01

The operation and maintenance costs of offshore wind farms can be significantly reduced if existing corrective actions are performed as efficient as possible and if future corrective actions are avoided by performing sufficient preventive actions. In this paper a prognostic model for degradation...... monitoring, fault prediction and predictive maintenance of offshore wind components is defined. The diagnostic model defined in this paper is based on degradation, remaining useful lifetime and hybrid inspection threshold models. The defined degradation model is based on an exponential distribution...

Bayesian based Prognostic Model for Predictive Maintenance of Offshore Wind Farms

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Asgarpour, Masoud; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

2018-01-01

monitoring, fault prediction and predictive maintenance of offshore wind components is defined. The diagnostic model defined in this paper is based on degradation, remaining useful lifetime and hybrid inspection threshold models. The defined degradation model is based on an exponential distribution......The operation and maintenance costs of offshore wind farms can be significantly reduced if existing corrective actions are performed as efficient as possible and if future corrective actions are avoided by performing sufficient preventive actions. In this paper a prognostic model for degradation...

Bayesian based Prognostic Model for Predictive Maintenance of Offshore Wind Farms

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Asgarpour, Masoud

2017-01-01

monitoring, fault detection and predictive maintenance of offshore wind components is defined. The diagnostic model defined in this paper is based on degradation, remaining useful lifetime and hybrid inspection threshold models. The defined degradation model is based on an exponential distribution......The operation and maintenance costs of offshore wind farms can be significantly reduced if existing corrective actions are performed as efficient as possible and if future corrective actions are avoided by performing sufficient preventive actions. In this paper a prognostic model for degradation...

Prognostic indices for brain metastases – usefulness and challenges

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nieder Carsten

2009-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background This review addresses the strengths and weaknesses of 6 different prognostic indices, published since the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG developed and validated the widely used 3-tiered prognostic index known as recursive partitioning analysis (RPA classes, i.e. between 1997 and 2008. In addition, other analyses of prognostic factors in groups of patients, which typically are underrepresented in large trials or databases, published in the same time period are reviewed. Methods Based on a systematic literature search, studies with more than 20 patients were included. The methods and results of prognostic factor analyses were extracted and compared. The authors discuss why current data suggest a need for a more refined index than RPA. Results So far, none of the indices has been derived from analyses of all potential prognostic factors. The 3 most recently published indices, including the RTOG's graded prognostic assessment (GPA, all expanded from the primary 3-tiered RPA system to a 4-tiered system. The authors' own data confirm the results of the RTOG GPA analysis and support further evaluation of this tool. Conclusion This review provides a basis for further refinement of the current prognostic indices by identifying open questions regarding, e.g., performance of the ideal index, evaluation of new candidate parameters, and separate analyses for different cancer types. Unusual primary tumors and their potential differences in biology or unique treatment approaches are not well represented in large pooled analyses.

A Discussion on Uncertainty Representation and Interpretation in Model-Based Prognostics Algorithms based on Kalman Filter Estimation Applied to Prognostics of Electronics Components

Science.gov (United States)

Celaya, Jose R.; Saxen, Abhinav; Goebel, Kai

2012-01-01

This article discusses several aspects of uncertainty representation and management for model-based prognostics methodologies based on our experience with Kalman Filters when applied to prognostics for electronics components. In particular, it explores the implications of modeling remaining useful life prediction as a stochastic process and how it relates to uncertainty representation, management, and the role of prognostics in decision-making. A distinction between the interpretations of estimated remaining useful life probability density function and the true remaining useful life probability density function is explained and a cautionary argument is provided against mixing interpretations for the two while considering prognostics in making critical decisions.

Survey on Prognostics Techniques for Updating Initiating Event Frequency in PSA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Hyeonmin; Heo, Gyunyoung

2015-01-01

One of the applications using PSA is a risk monito. The risk monitoring is real-time analysis tool to decide real-time risk based on real state of components and systems. In order to utilize more effective, the methodologies that manipulate the data from Prognostics was suggested. Generally, Prognostic comprehensively includes not only prognostic but also monitoring and diagnostic. The prognostic method must need condition monitoring. In case of applying PHM to a PSA model, the latest condition of NPPs can be identified more clearly. For reducing the conservatism and uncertainties, we suggested the concept that updates the initiating event frequency in a PSA model by using Bayesian approach which is one of the prognostics techniques before. From previous research, the possibility that PSA is updated by using data more correctly was found. In reliability theory, the Bathtub curve divides three parts (infant failure, constant and random failure, wareout failure). In this paper, in order to investigate the applicability of prognostic methods in updating quantitative data in a PSA model, the OLM acceptance criteria from NUREG, the concept of how to using prognostic in PSA, and the enabling prognostic techniques are suggested. The prognostic has the motivation that improved the predictive capabilities using existing monitoring systems, data, and information will enable more accurate equipment risk assessment for improved decision-making

Survey on Prognostics Techniques for Updating Initiating Event Frequency in PSA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Hyeonmin; Heo, Gyunyoung [Kyung Hee University, Yongin (Korea, Republic of)

2015-05-15

One of the applications using PSA is a risk monito. The risk monitoring is real-time analysis tool to decide real-time risk based on real state of components and systems. In order to utilize more effective, the methodologies that manipulate the data from Prognostics was suggested. Generally, Prognostic comprehensively includes not only prognostic but also monitoring and diagnostic. The prognostic method must need condition monitoring. In case of applying PHM to a PSA model, the latest condition of NPPs can be identified more clearly. For reducing the conservatism and uncertainties, we suggested the concept that updates the initiating event frequency in a PSA model by using Bayesian approach which is one of the prognostics techniques before. From previous research, the possibility that PSA is updated by using data more correctly was found. In reliability theory, the Bathtub curve divides three parts (infant failure, constant and random failure, wareout failure). In this paper, in order to investigate the applicability of prognostic methods in updating quantitative data in a PSA model, the OLM acceptance criteria from NUREG, the concept of how to using prognostic in PSA, and the enabling prognostic techniques are suggested. The prognostic has the motivation that improved the predictive capabilities using existing monitoring systems, data, and information will enable more accurate equipment risk assessment for improved decision-making.

Validation of a new prognostic index score for disseminated nasopharyngeal carcinoma

OpenAIRE

Toh, C-K; Heng, D; Ong, Y-K; Leong, S-S; Wee, J; Tan, E-H

2005-01-01

Patients with metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma have variable survival outcomes. We previously designed a scoring system to better prognosticate these patients. Here, we report results on validation of this new prognostic index score in a separate cohort of patients. Clinical features and laboratory parameters were examined in 172 patients with univariate and multivariate analyses and a numerical score was derived for each independent prognostic variable. Significant independent prognostic ...

A Hybrid PCA-CART-MARS-Based Prognostic Approach of the Remaining Useful Life for Aircraft Engines

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fernando Sánchez Lasheras

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Prognostics is an engineering discipline that predicts the future health of a system. In this research work, a data-driven approach for prognostics is proposed. Indeed, the present paper describes a data-driven hybrid model for the successful prediction of the remaining useful life of aircraft engines. The approach combines the multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS technique with the principal component analysis (PCA, dendrograms and classification and regression trees (CARTs. Elements extracted from sensor signals are used to train this hybrid model, representing different levels of health for aircraft engines. In this way, this hybrid algorithm is used to predict the trends of these elements. Based on this fitting, one can determine the future health state of a system and estimate its remaining useful life (RUL with accuracy. To evaluate the proposed approach, a test was carried out using aircraft engine signals collected from physical sensors (temperature, pressure, speed, fuel flow, etc.. Simulation results show that the PCA-CART-MARS-based approach can forecast faults long before they occur and can predict the RUL. The proposed hybrid model presents as its main advantage the fact that it does not require information about the previous operation states of the input variables of the engine. The performance of this model was compared with those obtained by other benchmark models (multivariate linear regression and artificial neural networks also applied in recent years for the modeling of remaining useful life. Therefore, the PCA-CART-MARS-based approach is very promising in the field of prognostics of the RUL for aircraft engines.

Prognostics of Power MOSFET

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This paper demonstrates how to apply prognostics to power MOSFETs (metal oxide field effect transistor). The methodology uses thermal cycling to age devices and...

Early prognostication markers in cardiac arrest patients treated with hypothermia.

Science.gov (United States)

Karapetkova, M; Koenig, M A; Jia, X

2016-03-01

Established prognostication markers, such as clinical findings, electroencephalography (EEG) and biochemical markers, used by clinicians to predict neurological outcome after cardiac arrest (CA) are altered under therapeutic hypothermia (TH) conditions and their validity remains uncertain. MEDLINE and Embase were searched for evidence on the current standards for neurological outcome prediction for out-of-hospital CA patients treated with TH and the validity of a wide range of prognostication markers. Relevant studies that suggested one or several established biomarkers and multimodal approaches for prognostication are included and reviewed. Whilst the prognostic accuracy of various tests after TH has been questioned, pupillary light reflexes and somatosensory evoked potentials are still strongly associated with negative outcome for early prognostication. Increasingly, EEG background activity has also been identified as a valid predictor for outcome after 72 h after CA and a preferred prognostic method in clinical settings. Neuroimaging techniques, such as magnetic resonance imaging and computed tomography, can identify functional and structural brain injury but are not readily available at the patient's bedside because of limited availability and high costs. A multimodal algorithm composed of neurological examination, EEG-based quantitative testing and somatosensory evoked potentials, in conjunction with newer magnetic resonance imaging sequences, if available, holds promise for accurate prognostication in CA patients treated with TH. In order to avoid premature withdrawal of care, prognostication should be performed more than 72 h after CA. © 2015 EAN.

Who pays and who benefits from health care? An assessment of equity in health care financing and benefit distribution in Tanzania.

Science.gov (United States)

Mtei, Gemini; Makawia, Suzan; Ally, Mariam; Kuwawenaruwa, August; Meheus, Filip; Borghi, Josephine

2012-03-01

Little is known about health system equity in Tanzania, whether in terms of distribution of the health care financing burden or distribution of health care benefits. This study undertook a combined analysis of both financing and benefit incidence to explore the distribution of health care benefits and financing burden across socio-economic groups. A system-wide analysis of benefits was undertaken, including benefits from all providers irrespective of ownership. The analysis used the household budget survey (HBS) from 2001, the most recent nationally representative survey data publicly available at the time, to analyse the distribution of health care payments through user fees, health insurance contributions [from the National Health Insurance Fund (NHIF) for the formal sector and the Community Health Fund (CHF), for the rural informal sector] and taxation. Due to lack of information on NHIF and CHF contributions in the HBS, a primary survey was administered to estimate CHF enrollment and contributions; assumptions were used to estimate NHIF contributions within the HBS. Data from the same household survey, administered to 2224 households in seven districts/councils, was used to analyse the distribution of health care benefits across socio-economic groups. The health financing system was mildly progressive overall, with income taxes and NHIF contributions being the most progressive financing sources. Out-of-pocket payments and contributions to the CHF were regressive. The health benefit distribution was fairly even but the poorest received a lower share of benefits relative to their share of need for health care. Public primary care facility use was pro-poor, whereas higher level and higher cost facility use was generally pro-rich. We conclude that health financing reforms can improve equity, so long as integration of health insurance schemes is promoted along with cross-subsidization and greater reliance on general taxation to finance health care for the poorest.

Prognostic significance of macrophage invasion in hilar cholangiocarcinoma

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Atanasov, Georgi; Hau, Hans-Michael; Dietel, Corinna; Benzing, Christian; Krenzien, Felix; Brandl, Andreas; Wiltberger, Georg; Matia, Ivan; Prager, Isabel; Schierle, Katrin; Robson, Simon C.; Reutzel-Selke, Anja; Pratschke, Johann; Schmelzle, Moritz; Jonas, Sven

2015-01-01

Tumor-associated macrophages (TAMs) promote tumor progression and have an effect on survival in human cancer. However, little is known regarding their influence on tumor progression and prognosis in human hilar cholangiocarcinoma. We analyzed surgically resected tumor specimens of hilar cholangiocarcinoma (n = 47) for distribution and localization of TAMs, as defined by expression of CD68. Abundance of TAMs was correlated with clinicopathologic characteristics, tumor recurrence and patients’ survival. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS software. Patients with high density of TAMs in tumor invasive front (TIF) showed significantly higher local and overall tumor recurrence (both ρ < 0.05). Furthermore, high density of TAMs was associated with decreased overall (one-year 83.6 % vs. 75.1 %; three-year 61.3 % vs. 42.4 %; both ρ < 0.05) and recurrence-free survival (one-year 93.9 % vs. 57.4 %; three-year 59.8 % vs. 26.2 %; both ρ < 0.05). TAMs in TIF and tumor recurrence, were confirmed as the only independent prognostic variables in the multivariate survival analysis (all ρ < 0.05). Overall survival and recurrence free survival of patients with hilar cholangiocarcinoma significantly improved in patients with low levels of TAMs in the area of TIF, when compared to those with a high density of TAMs. These observations suggest their utilization as valuable prognostic markers in routine histopathologic evaluation, and might indicate future therapeutic approaches by targeting TAMs

Prognostic Marker before Treatment of Patients with Malignant Glioma

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Norbert Galldiks

2012-11-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this positron emission tomography (PET study was to compare the prognostic value of pretreatment volume of [11C] methionine (MET uptake and semiquantitative MET uptake ratio in patients with malignant glioma. The study population comprised 40 patients with malignant glioma. Pretreatment magnetic resonance imaging (MRI and MET-PET imaging were performed before the initiation of glioma treatment in all patients. The pretreatment MET uptake ratios and volumes were assessed. To create prognostically homogeneous subgroups, patients′ pretreatment prognostic factors were stratified according to the six classes of Radiation Therapy Oncology Group recursive partitioning analysis (RTOG RPA. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to determine significant prognostic factors. Survival analyses identified the pretreatment volume of MET uptake and a higher RTOG RPA class as significant predictors. In contrast, pretreatment maximum areas of contrast enhancement on MRI and semiquantitative MET uptake ratios could not be identified as significant prognostic factors. The patients′ outcomes and Karnofsky Performance Scale scores were significantly correlated with pretreatment volume of MET uptake but not with semiquantitative MET uptake ratio. The data suggest that pretreatment volumetry of MET uptake but not the semiquantitative MET uptake ratio is a useful biologic prognostic marker in patients with malignant glioma.

Physics-of-Failure Approach to Prognostics

Science.gov (United States)

Kulkarni, Chetan S.

2017-01-01

As more and more electric vehicles emerge in our daily operation progressively, a very critical challenge lies in accurate prediction of the electrical components present in the system. In case of electric vehicles, computing remaining battery charge is safety-critical. In order to tackle and solve the prediction problem, it is essential to have awareness of the current state and health of the system, especially since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To be able to predict the future state of the system, it is also required to possess knowledge of the current and future operations of the vehicle. In this presentation our approach to develop a system level health monitoring safety indicator for different electronic components is presented which runs estimation and prediction algorithms to determine state-of-charge and estimate remaining useful life of respective components. Given models of the current and future system behavior, the general approach of model-based prognostics can be employed as a solution to the prediction problem and further for decision making.

OmniPHR: A distributed architecture model to integrate personal health records.

Science.gov (United States)

Roehrs, Alex; da Costa, Cristiano André; da Rosa Righi, Rodrigo

2017-07-01

The advances in the Information and Communications Technology (ICT) brought many benefits to the healthcare area, specially to digital storage of patients' health records. However, it is still a challenge to have a unified viewpoint of patients' health history, because typically health data is scattered among different health organizations. Furthermore, there are several standards for these records, some of them open and others proprietary. Usually health records are stored in databases within health organizations and rarely have external access. This situation applies mainly to cases where patients' data are maintained by healthcare providers, known as EHRs (Electronic Health Records). In case of PHRs (Personal Health Records), in which patients by definition can manage their health records, they usually have no control over their data stored in healthcare providers' databases. Thereby, we envision two main challenges regarding PHR context: first, how patients could have a unified view of their scattered health records, and second, how healthcare providers can access up-to-date data regarding their patients, even though changes occurred elsewhere. For addressing these issues, this work proposes a model named OmniPHR, a distributed model to integrate PHRs, for patients and healthcare providers use. The scientific contribution is to propose an architecture model to support a distributed PHR, where patients can maintain their health history in an unified viewpoint, from any device anywhere. Likewise, for healthcare providers, the possibility of having their patients data interconnected among health organizations. The evaluation demonstrates the feasibility of the model in maintaining health records distributed in an architecture model that promotes a unified view of PHR with elasticity and scalability of the solution. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Application of the Sensor Selection Approach in Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Fuel Cell Prognostics and Health Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lei Mao

2017-09-01

Full Text Available In this paper, the sensor selection approach is investigated with the aim of using fewer sensors to provide reliable fuel cell diagnostic and prognostic results. The sensitivity of sensors is firstly calculated with a developed fuel cell model. With sensor sensitivities to different fuel cell failure modes, the available sensors can be ranked. A sensor selection algorithm is used in the analysis, which considers both sensor sensitivity to fuel cell performance and resistance to noise. The performance of the selected sensors in polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM fuel cell prognostics is also evaluated with an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS, and results show that the fuel cell voltage can be predicted with good quality using the selected sensors. Furthermore, a fuel cell test is performed to investigate the effectiveness of selected sensors in fuel cell fault diagnosis. From the results, different fuel cell states can be distinguished with good quality using the selected sensors.

Fear of knowledge: Clinical hypotheses in diagnostic and prognostic reasoning.

Science.gov (United States)

Chiffi, Daniele; Zanotti, Renzo

2017-10-01

Patients are interested in receiving accurate diagnostic and prognostic information. Models and reasoning about diagnoses have been extensively investigated from a foundational perspective; however, for all its importance, prognosis has yet to receive a comparable degree of philosophical and methodological attention, and this may be due to the difficulties inherent in accurate prognostics. In the light of these considerations, we discuss a considerable body of critical thinking on the topic of prognostication and its strict relations with diagnostic reasoning, pointing out the distinction between nosographic and pathophysiological types of diagnosis and prognosis, underlying the importance of the explication and explanation processes. We then distinguish between various forms of hypothetical reasoning applied to reach diagnostic and prognostic judgments, comparing them with specific forms of abductive reasoning. The main thesis is that creative abduction regarding clinical hypotheses in diagnostic process is very unlikely to occur, whereas this seems to be often the case for prognostic judgments. The reasons behind this distinction are due to the different types of uncertainty involved in diagnostic and prognostic judgments. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Trends in the distribution of South African health care expenditure

African Journals Online (AJOL)

1990-08-04

Aug 4, 1990 ... This paper considers the distribution of health expenditure between the public ... An understanding of past health care expenditure patterns is a prerequisite to any .... of this total and local government for 8% in the same year.

Predictive and Prognostic Value of sPRR in Patients with Primary Epithelial Ovarian Cancer

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Katrin Kreienbring

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Aim. The purpose of the present study was to analyze the predictive and prognostic role of soluble (prorenin receptor (sPRR as a biomarker for clinicopathological outcome in patients with primary epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC. As part of the renin-angiotensin system (RAS whose activity is known to increase in ovarian cancer patients, the relation of sPRR and ovarian cancer should be further investigated. Patients and Methods. In this study 197 patients with primary EOC in our institution from 2000 to 2011 were included. sPRR was determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA in preoperative taken blood sera. Associations with clinicopathological outcome were analyzed and serum levels of sPRR in patients have been compared to those in healthy specimen. Kaplan-Meier and logistic/Cox regression assessed the impact of the markers on progression-free survival (PFS and overall survival (OS. Results. There have been no correlations proved of sPRR levels with neither clinicopathological factors nor prognostic data. Also the distribution of sPRR in patients and controls was normal. Conclusion. sPRR seems to have no predictive, prognostic, or diagnostic value in EOC. As several factors of the RAS which might indicate cancer events have been shown, sPRR seems not to be affected.

Prognostics-Enabled Power Supply for ADAPT Testbed, Phase II

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Ridgetop's role is to develop electronic prognostics for sensing power systems in support of NASA/Ames ADAPT testbed. The prognostic enabled power systems from...

Prognostic factors for non-success in patients with sciatica and disc herniation.

Science.gov (United States)

Haugen, Anne Julsrud; Brox, Jens Ivar; Grøvle, Lars; Keller, Anne; Natvig, Bård; Soldal, Dag; Grotle, Margreth

2012-09-22

Few studies have investigated prognostic factors for patients with sciatica, especially for patients treated without surgery. The aim of this study was to identify factors associated with non-success after 1 and 2 years of follow-up and to test the prognostic value of surgical treatment for sciatica. The study was a prospective multicentre observational study including 466 patients with sciatica and lumbar disc herniation. Potential prognostic factors were sociodemographic characteristics, back pain history, kinesiophobia, emotional distress, pain, comorbidity and clinical examination findings. Study participation did not alter treatment considerations for the patients in the clinics. Patients reported on the questionnaires if surgery of the disc herniation had been performed. Uni- and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to evaluate factors associated with non-success, defined as Maine-Seattle Back Questionnaire score of ≥5 (0-12) (primary outcome) and Sciatica Bothersomeness Index ≥7 (0-24) (secondary outcome). Rates of non-success were at 1 and 2 years 44% and 39% for the main outcome and 47% and 42% for the secondary outcome. Approximately 1/3 of the patients were treated surgically. For the main outcome variable, in the final multivariate model non-success at 1 year was significantly associated with being male (OR 1.70 [95% CI; 1.06 - 2.73]), smoker (2.06 [1.31 - 3.25]), more back pain (1.0 [1.01 - 1.02]), more comorbid subjective health complaints (1.09 [1.03 - 1.15]), reduced tendon reflex (1.62 [1.03 - 2.56]), and not treated surgically (2.97 [1.75 - 5.04]). Further, factors significantly associated with non-success at 2 years were duration of back problems >; 1 year (1.92 [1.11 - 3.32]), duration of sciatica >; 3 months (2.30 [1.40 - 3.80]), more comorbid subjective health complaints (1.10 [1.03 - 1.17]) and kinesiophobia (1.04 [1.00 - 1.08]). For the secondary outcome variable

A prognostic tool to identify adolescents at high risk of becoming daily smokers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paradis Gilles

2011-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The American Academy of Pediatrics advocates that pediatricians should be involved in tobacco counseling and has developed guidelines for counseling. We present a prognostic tool for use by health care practitioners in both clinical and non-clinical settings, to identify adolescents at risk of becoming daily smokers. Methods Data were drawn from the Nicotine Dependence in Teens (NDIT Study, a prospective investigation of 1293 adolescents, initially aged 12-13 years, recruited in 10 secondary schools in Montreal, Canada in 1999. Questionnaires were administered every three months for five years. The prognostic tool was developed using estimated coefficients from multivariable logistic models. Model overfitting was corrected using bootstrap cross-validation. Goodness-of-fit and predictive ability of the models were assessed by R2, the c-statistic, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. Results The 1-year and 2-year probability of initiating daily smoking was a joint function of seven individual characteristics: age; ever smoked; ever felt like you needed a cigarette; parent(s smoke; sibling(s smoke; friend(s smoke; and ever drank alcohol. The models were characterized by reasonably good fit and predictive ability. They were transformed into user-friendly tables such that the risk of daily smoking can be easily computed by summing points for responses to each item. The prognostic tool is also available on-line at http://episerve.chumontreal.qc.ca/calculation_risk/daily-risk/daily_smokingadd.php. Conclusions The prognostic tool to identify youth at high risk of daily smoking may eventually be an important component of a comprehensive tobacco control system.

Treatments and other prognostic factors in the management of the open abdomen: A systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Cristaudo, Adam T; Jennings, Scott B; Hitos, Kerry; Gunnarsson, Ronny; DeCosta, Alan

2017-02-01

The open abdomen (OA) is an important approach for managing intra-abdominal catastrophes and continues to be the standard of care. Despite this, challenges remain with it associated with a high incidence of complications and poor outcomes. The objective of this article is to perform a systematic review in accordance with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines to identify prognostic factors in OA patients in regard to definitive fascial closure (DFC), mortality and intra-abdominal complications. An electronic database search was conducted involving Medline, Excerpta Medica, Central Register of Controlled Trials, Cumulative Index to Nursing, and Allied Health Literature and Clinicaltrials.gov. All studies that described prognostic factors in regard to the above outcomes in OA patients were eligible for inclusion. Data collected were synthesized by each outcome of interest and assessed for methodological quality. Thirty-one studies were included in the final synthesis. Enteral nutrition, organ dysfunction, local and systemic infection, number of reexplorations, worsening Injury Severity Score, and the development of a fistula appeared to significantly delay DFC. Age and Adult Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation version II score were predictors for in-hospital mortality. Failed DFC, large bowel resection and >5 to 10 L of intravenous fluids in 5 to 10 and >10 L of intravenous fluids in management of OA patients will avoid prolonged treatment and facilitate early DFC. Future research should focus on the development of a prognostic model. Systematic review, level III.

Prognostic Disclosure and its Influence on Cancer Patients

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chen-Hsiu Chen

2014-09-01

Conclusions: In order to close the gap between patients’ preferences for prognostic disclosure and actual receipt of prognostic information, healthcare professionals should develop interventions to overcome the physicians’ difficulty in revealing prognosis, thus facilitating cancer patients’ awareness of prognosis and providing high quality end-of-life care.

Systematic review of renal carcinoma prognostic factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Lorente, D; Trilla, E; Meseguer, A; Planas, J; Placer, J; Celma, A; Salvador, C; Regis, L; Morote, J

2017-05-01

The natural history of renal cell carcinoma is heterogeneous. Some scenarios can be found in terms of clinical presentation, clinical evolution or type of recurrence (local/metastatic). The aim of this publication is to analyze the most important prognostic factors published in the literature. A literature review ob published papers was performed using the Pubmed, from first Motzer's classification published in 1999 to 2015, according to PRISMA declaration. Search was done using the following keywords: kidney neoplasm, kidney cancer, renal cell carcinoma, prognostic factors, mortality, survival and disease progression. Papers were classified according to level of evidence, the number of patients included and the type of study performed. The evolution in the knowledge of molecular pathways related to renal oncogenesis and the new targeted therapies has left to remain obsolete the old prognostic models. It's necessary to perform a continuous review to actualize nomograms and to adapt them to the new scenarios. Is necessary to perform a proper external validation of existing prognostic factors using prospective and multicentric studies to add them into the daily urologist clinical practice. Copyright © 2016 AEU. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Financial Effect of a Drug Distribution Model Change on a Health System.

Science.gov (United States)

Turingan, Erin M; Mekoba, Bijan C; Eberwein, Samuel M; Roberts, Patricia A; Pappas, Ashley L; Cruz, Jennifer L; Amerine, Lindsey B

2017-06-01

Background: Drug manufacturers change distribution models based on patient safety and product integrity needs. These model changes can limit health-system access to medications, and the financial impact on health systems can be significant. Objective: The primary aim of this study was to determine the health-system financial impact of a manufacturer's change from open to limited distribution for bevacizumab (Avastin), rituximab (Rituxan), and trastuzumab (Herceptin). The secondary aim was to identify opportunities to shift administration to outpatient settings to support formulary change. Methods: To assess the financial impact on the health system, the cost minus discount was applied to total drug expenditure during a 1-year period after the distribution model change. The opportunity analysis was conducted for three institutions within the health system through chart review of each inpatient administration. Opportunity cost was the sum of the inpatient administration cost and outpatient administration margin. Results: The total drug expenditure for the study period was $26 427 263. By applying the cost minus discount, the financial effect of the distribution model change was $1 393 606. A total of 387 administrations were determined to be opportunities to be shifted to the outpatient setting. During the study period, the total opportunity cost was $1 766 049. Conclusion: Drug expenditure increased for the health system due to the drug distribution model change and loss of cost minus discount. The opportunity cost of shifting inpatient administrations could offset the increase in expenditure. It is recommended to restrict bevacizumab, rituximab, and trastuzumab through Pharmacy & Therapeutics Committees to outpatient use where clinically appropriate.

Clinicopathological analysis of prognostic factors in colorectal carcinoma

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aura Jurescu

2016-12-01

Full Text Available BACKGROUND Prediction of prognosis is vital for therapy options in patients with colorectal carcinoma (CRC. We aimed to identify some prognostic factors that could ensure a more adequate prediction of CRC patients’ outcome. MATERIALS AND METHODS We performed a study on a group of 253 CRC patients in the County Hospital ofTimișoara. The following variable parameters: age, gender, histological type, depth of tumor invasion (pT, histological grade (G, lymph node metastasis (LNM, lympho-vascular invasion (LVI were analyzed using Fisher’s exact test. RESULTS The incidence of CRC increased with age. Gender distribution was evidenced as follows: 159 (63% were male patients and 94 (37% were female patients. 234 (92% cases were conventional adenocarcinomas (ADK nM, 19 (8% were mucinous adenocarcinomas (ADK M. 1% of cases were pT1 stage, 9% pT2, 58% pT3 and 32% pT4 stage. 5% of the tumors were G1, 95% G2, G3, G4. In pT1&pT2 stages only 4% presented LVI, while in pT3&pT4 LVI was significantly higher, 42% of the examined cases. Only two cases from pT1&pT2 tumors showed LNM vs. 55% (127 cases of pT3&pT4 stages. CONCLUSIONS Tumor stage remains the most important prognostic predictor of clinical outcome for these patients. Pathologic assessment of various clinicopathological factors plays n essential role in patient management. Graphical abstract: Infiltrative aspects of colorectal carcinoma REFERENCES 1. Corman ML. Carcinoma of the Colon. In: Corman ML, editors. Colon and Rectal Surgery. 5-th edition. Philadelphia: Lippincott Williams nad Wilkins. 2005. p. 767-920. 2. Bresalier R. Malignant neoplasms of the large intestine. In: Feldman M, Friedman LS, Sleisenger MH (Editors. Gastrointestinal and Liver Disease (Pathology, Diagnosis, Management. Philadelphia, London,New York: Saunders. 2002. p. 2215-2263. 3. Schneider N, Langner C. Prognostic stratification of colorectal cancer patients: current perspectives. Cancer Management and Research. 2014;6:291- 300.

Health Expenditure Growth: Looking beyond the Average through Decomposition of the Full Distribution

NARCIS (Netherlands)

C.A.M. de Meijer (Claudine); M.A. Koopmanschap (Marc); O.A. O'Donnell (Owen); E.K.A. van Doorslaer (Eddy)

2012-01-01

textabstractExplanations of growth in health expenditures have restricted attention to the mean. We explain change throughout the distribution of expenditures, providing insight into how growth and its explanation differ along the distribution. We analyse Dutch data on actual health expenditures

Using the {Beta}-binomial distribution to characterize forest health

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zarnoch, S. J. [USDA Forest Service, Southern Research Station, Athens, GA (United States); Anderson, R.L.; Sheffield, R. M. [USDA Forest Service, Southern Research Station, Asheville, NC (United States)

1995-03-01

Forest health monitoring programs often use base variables which are dichotomous (i e. alive/dead, damaged/undamaged) to describe the health of trees. Typical sampling designs usually consist of randomly or systematically chosen clusters of trees for observation.It was claimed that contagiousness of diseases for example may result in non-uniformity of affected trees, so that distribution of the proportions, rather than simply the mean proportion, becomes important. The use of the {Beta}-binomial model was suggested for such cases. Use of the {Beta}-binomial distribution model applied in forest health analyses, was described.. Data on dogwood anthracnose (caused by Discula destructiva), a disease of flowering dogwood (Cornus florida L.), was used to illustrate the utility of the model. The {Beta}-binomial model allowed the detection of different distributional patterns of dogwood anthracnose over time and space. Results led to further speculation regarding the cause of the patterns. Traditional proportion analyses like ANOVA would not have detected the trends found using the {Beta}-binomial model, until more distinct patterns had evolved at a later date. The model was said to be flexible and require no special weighting or transformations of data.Another advantage claimed was its ability to handle unequal sample sizes.

A new prognostic score for AIDS-related lymphomas in the rituximab-era

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Barta, Stefan K.; Xue, Xiaonan; Wang, Dan; Lee, Jeannette Y.; Kaplan, Lawrence D.; Ribera, Josep-Maria; Oriol, Albert; Spina, Michele; Tirelli, Umberto; Boue, Francois; Wilson, Wyndham H.; Wyen, Christoph; Dunleavy, Kieron; Noy, Ariela; Sparano, Joseph A.

2014-01-01

While the International Prognostic Index is commonly used to predict outcomes in immunocompetent patients with aggressive B-cell non-Hodgkin lymphomas, HIV-infection is an important competing risk for death in patients with AIDS-related lymphomas. We investigated whether a newly created prognostic score (AIDS-related lymphoma International Prognostic Index) could better assess risk of death in patients with AIDS-related lymphomas. We randomly divided a dataset of 487 patients newly diagnosed with AIDS-related lymphomas and treated with rituximab-containing chemoimmunotherapy into a training (n=244) and validation (n=243) set. We examined the association of HIV-related and other known risk factors with overall survival in both sets independently. We defined a new score (AIDS-related lymphoma International Prognostic Index) by assigning weights to each significant predictor [age-adjusted International Prognostic Index, extranodal sites, HIV-score (composed of CD4 count, viral load, and prior history of AIDS)] with three risk categories similar to the age-adjusted International Prognostic Index (low, intermediate and high risk). We compared the prognostic value for overall survival between AIDS-related lymphoma International Prognostic Index and age-adjusted International Prognostic Index in the validation set and found that the AIDS-related lymphoma International Prognostic Index performed significantly better in predicting risk of death than the age-adjusted International Prognostic Index (P=0.004) and better discriminated risk of death between each risk category (P=0.015 vs. P=0.13). Twenty-eight percent of patients were defined as low risk by the ARL-IPI and had an estimated 5-year overall survival (OS) of 78% (52% intermediate risk, 5-year OS 60%; 20% high risk, 5-year OS 50%). PMID:25150257

Inflammation-based prognostic score and number of lymph node metastases are independent prognostic factors in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

Science.gov (United States)

Kobayashi, Takashi; Teruya, Masanori; Kishiki, Tomokazu; Kaneko, Susumu; Endo, Daisuke; Takenaka, Yoshiharu; Miki, Kenji; Kobayashi, Kaoru; Morita, Koji

2010-08-01

Few studies have investigated whether the Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS), an inflammation-based prognostic score, is useful for postoperative prognosis of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. GPS was calculated on the basis of admission data as follows: patients with elevated C-reactive protein level (>10 mg/l) and hypoalbuminemia (l) were assigned to GPS2. Patients with one or no abnormal value were assigned to GPS1 or GPS0. A new scoring system was constructed using independent prognostic variables and was evaluated on whether it could be used to dictate the choice of clinical options. 65 patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma were enrolled. GPS and the number of lymph node metastases were found to be independent prognostic variables. The scoring system comprising GPS and the number of lymph node metastases was found to be effective in the prediction of a long-term outcome (p GPS may be useful for postoperative prognosis of patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. GPS and the number of lymph node metastases could be used to identify a subgroup of patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma who are eligible for radical resection but show poor prognosis.

PROGNOSTIC SIGNIFICANCE OF CD56 EXPRESSION IN ACUTE LEUKEMIAS

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B. M. Ahmed

2014-12-01

Conclusions. CD56 antigenic expression in AML cases represents an adverse prognostic factor. It should be regularly investigated in cases of AML for better prognostic stratification and assessment. KEY WORDS: CD56; leukemia, myeloid; prognosis

An assessment of equity in the distribution of non-financial health care inputs across public primary health care facilities in Tanzania.

Science.gov (United States)

Kuwawenaruwa, August; Borghi, Josephine; Remme, Michelle; Mtei, Gemini

2017-07-11

There is limited evidence on how health care inputs are distributed from the sub-national level down to health facilities and their potential influence on promoting health equity. To address this gap, this paper assesses equity in the distribution of health care inputs across public primary health facilities at the district level in Tanzania. This is a quantitative assessment of equity in the distribution of health care inputs (staff, drugs, medical supplies and equipment) from district to facility level. The study was carried out in three districts (Kinondoni, Singida Rural and Manyoni district) in Tanzania. These districts were selected because they were implementing primary care reforms. We administered 729 exit surveys with patients seeking out-patient care; and health facility surveys at 69 facilities in early 2014. A total of seventeen indices of input availability were constructed with the collected data. The distribution of inputs was considered in relation to (i) the wealth of patients accessing the facilities, which was taken as a proxy for the wealth of the population in the catchment area; and (ii) facility distance from the district headquarters. We assessed equity in the distribution of inputs through the use of equity ratios, concentration indices and curves. We found a significant pro-rich distribution of clinical staff and nurses per 1000 population. Facilities with the poorest patients (most remote facilities) have fewer staff per 1000 population than those with the least poor patients (least remote facilities): 0.6 staff per 1000 among the poorest, compared to 0.9 among the least poor; 0.7 staff per 1000 among the most remote facilities compared to 0.9 among the least remote. The negative concentration index for support staff suggests a pro-poor distribution of this cadre but the 45 degree dominated the concentration curve. The distribution of vaccines, antibiotics, anti-diarrhoeal, anti-malarials and medical supplies was approximately

Cross-National Validation of Prognostic Models Predicting Sickness Absence and the Added Value of Work Environment Variables

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Roelen, Corne A. M.; Stapelfeldt, Christina M.; Heymans, Martijn W.; van Rhenen, Willem; Labriola, Merete; Nielsen, Claus V.; Bultmann, Ute; Jensen, Chris

Purpose To validate Dutch prognostic models including age, self-rated health and prior sickness absence (SA) for ability to predict high SA in Danish eldercare. The added value of work environment variables to the models' risk discrimination was also investigated. Methods 2,562 municipal eldercare

Cross-National Validation of Prognostic Models Predicting Sickness Absence and the Added Value of Work Environment Variables

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Roelen, C.A.M.; Stapelfeldt, C.M.; Heijmans, M.W.; van Rhenen, W.; Labriola, M.; Nielsen, C.V.; Bultmann, U.; Jensen, C.

2015-01-01

Purpose To validate Dutch prognostic models including age, self-rated health and prior sickness absence (SA) for ability to predict high SA in Danish eldercare. The added value of work environment variables to the models’ risk discrimination was also investigated. Methods 2,562 municipal eldercare

Distributed Rocket Engine Testing Health Monitoring System, Phase I

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National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The on-ground and Distributed Rocket Engine Testing Health Monitoring System (DiRETHMS) provides a system architecture and software tools for performing diagnostics...

Distributed Rocket Engine Testing Health Monitoring System, Phase II

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National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Leveraging the Phase I achievements of the Distributed Rocket Engine Testing Health Monitoring System (DiRETHMS) including its software toolsets and system building...

The Cambridge Prognostic Groups for improved prediction of disease mortality at diagnosis in primary non-metastatic prostate cancer: a validation study.

Science.gov (United States)

Gnanapragasam, V J; Bratt, O; Muir, K; Lee, L S; Huang, H H; Stattin, P; Lophatananon, A

2018-02-28

The purpose of this study is to validate a new five-tiered prognostic classification system to better discriminate cancer-specific mortality in men diagnosed with primary non-metastatic prostate cancer. We applied a recently described five-strata model, the Cambridge Prognostic Groups (CPGs 1-5), in two international cohorts and tested prognostic performance against the current standard three-strata classification of low-, intermediate- or high-risk disease. Diagnostic clinico-pathological data for men obtained from the Prostate Cancer data Base Sweden (PCBaSe) and the Singapore Health Study were used. The main outcome measure was prostate cancer mortality (PCM) stratified by age group and treatment modality. The PCBaSe cohort included 72,337 men, of whom 7162 died of prostate cancer. The CPG model successfully classified men with different risks of PCM with competing risk regression confirming significant intergroup distinction (p study of nearly 75,000 men confirms that the CPG five-tiered prognostic model has superior discrimination compared to the three-tiered model in predicting prostate cancer death across different age and treatment groups. Crucially, it identifies distinct sub-groups of men within the old intermediate-risk and high-risk criteria who have very different prognostic outcomes. We therefore propose adoption of the CPG model as a simple-to-use but more accurate prognostic stratification tool to help guide management for men with newly diagnosed prostate cancer.

Prognostic value of the Glasgow Prognostic Score for glioblastoma multiforme patients treated with radiotherapy and temozolomide.

Science.gov (United States)

Topkan, Erkan; Selek, Ugur; Ozdemir, Yurday; Yildirim, Berna A; Guler, Ozan C; Ciner, Fuat; Mertsoylu, Huseyin; Tufan, Kadir

2018-04-25

To evaluate the prognostic value of the Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS), the combination of C-reactive protein (CRP) and albumin, in glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) patients treated with radiotherapy (RT) and concurrent plus adjuvant temozolomide (GPS). Data of newly diagnosed GBM patients treated with partial brain RT and concurrent and adjuvant TMZ were retrospectively analyzed. The patients were grouped into three according to the GPS criteria: GPS-0: CRP L and albumin > 35 g/L; GPS-1: CRP L and albumin L or CRP > 10 mg/L and albumin > 35 g/L; and GPS-2: CRP > 10 mg/L and albumin L. Primary end-point was the association between the GPS groups and the overall survival (OS) outcomes. A total of 142 patients were analyzed (median age: 58 years, 66.2% male). There were 64 (45.1%), 40 (28.2%), and 38 (26.7%) patients in GPS-0, GPS-1, and GPS-2 groups, respectively. At median 15.7 months follow-up, the respective median and 5-year OS rates for the whole cohort were 16.2 months (95% CI 12.7-19.7) and 9.5%. In multivariate analyses GPS grouping emerged independently associated with the median OS (P GPS grouping and the RTOG RPA classification were found to be strongly correlated in prognostic stratification of GBM patients (correlation coefficient: 0.42; P GPS appeared to be useful in prognostic stratification of GBM patients into three groups with significantly different survival durations resembling the RTOG RPA classification.

Prognostic factors in Acanthamoeba keratitis.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaiserman, Igor; Bahar, Irit; McAllum, Penny; Srinivasan, Sathish; Elbaz, Uri; Slomovic, Allan R; Rootman, David S

2012-06-01

To assess the prognostic factors influencing visual prognosis and length of treatment after acanthamoeba keratitis (AK). Forty-two AK eyes of 41 patients treated between 1999 and 2006 were included. A diagnosis of AK was made on the basis of culture results with a corresponding clinical presentation. We calculated the prognostic effect of the various factors on final visual acuity and the length of treatment. Multivariate regression analysis was used to adjust for the simultaneous effects of the various prognostic factors. Mean follow-up was 19.7 ± 21.0 months. Sixty-four percent of cases had > 1 identified risk factor for AK, the most common risk factor being contact lens wear (92.9% of eyes). At presentation, median best spectacle corrected visual acuity (BCVA) was 20/200 (20/30 to Hand Motion [HM]) that improved after treatment to 20/50 (20/20 to Counting Fingers [CF]). Infection acquired by swimming or related to contact lenses had significantly better final BCVA (p = 0.03 and p = 0.007, respectively). Neuritis and pseudodendrites were also associated with better final BCVA (p = 0.04 and p = 0.05, respectively). Having had an epithelial defect on presentation and having been treated with topical steroid were associated with worse final best spectacle corrected visual acuity (BSCVA) (p = 0.0006 and p = 0.04). Multivariate regression analysis found a good initial visual acuity (p = 0.002), infections related to swimming (p = 0.01), the absence of an epithelial defect (p = 0.03), having been treated with chlorhexidine (p = 0.05), and not having receive steroids (p = 0.003) to significantly forecast a good final BCVA. We identified several prognostic factors that can help clinicians evaluate the expected visual damage of the AK infection and thus tailor treatment accordingly. Copyright © 2012 Canadian Ophthalmological Society. All rights reserved.

Prognostic value of proliferation in pleomorphic soft tissue sarcomas

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Seinen, Jojanneke M; Jönsson, Mats; Bendahl, Pär-Ola O

2012-01-01

= 1.6-12.1), Top2a (hazard ratio = 2.2, CI = 1.2-3.5) and high S-phase fraction (hazard ratio = 1.8, CI = 1.2-3.7) significantly correlated with risk for metastasis. When combined with currently used prognostic factors, Ki-67, S-phase fraction and Top2a fraction contributed to refined identification...... of prognostic risk groups. Proliferation, as assessed by expression of Ki-67 and Top2a and evaluation of S-phase fraction and applied to statistical decision-tree models, provides prognostic information in soft tissue sarcomas of the extremity and trunk wall. Though proliferation contributes independently...... to currently applied prognosticators, its role is particularly strong when few other factors are available, which suggests a role in preoperative decision-making related to identification of high-risk individuals who would benefit from neoadjuvant therapy....

Treatment outcome of thymic epithelial tumor: prognostic factors and optimal postoperative radiation therapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oh, Dong Ryul; Ahn, Yong Chan; Kim, Kwan Min; Kim, Jhin Gook; Shim, Young Mog; Han, Jung Ho

2005-01-01

This study was conducted to analyze treatment outcome and prognostic significance of World Health Organization (WHO)-defined thymic epithelial tumor (TET) subtype and to assess optimal radiation target volume in patients receiving surgery and adjuvant radiation therapy with TET. The record of 160 patients with TET, who received surgical resection at the Samsung medical Center, from December 1994 to June 2004, were reviewed. 99 patients were treated with postoperative radiation therapy (PORT). PORT was recommended when patients had more than one findings among suspicious incomplete resection or positive resection margin or Masaoka stage II ∼ IV or WHO tumor type B2 ∼ C. PORT performed to primary tumor bed only with a mean dose of 54 Gy. The prognostic factor and pattern of failure were analyzed retrospectively. The overall survival rate at 5 years was 87.3%. Age (more than 60 years 77.8%, less than 60 years 91.1%; ρ = 0.03), Masaoka stage (I 92.2%, II 95.4%, III 82.1%, IV 67.5%; ρ = 0.001), WHO tumor type (A-B1 96.0%, B2-C 82.3%; ρ = 0.001), Extent of resection (R0 resection 92.3%, R1 or 2 resection 72.6%; ρ = 0.001) were the prognostic factors according to univariate analysis. But WHO tumor type was the only significant prognostic factor according to multivariate analysis. Recurrence was observed in 5 patients of 71 Masoka stage I-III patients who received grossly complete tumor removal (R0, R1 resection ) and PORT to primary tumor bed. Mediastinal recurrence was observed in only one patients. There were no recurrence within irradiation field. WHO tumor type was the important prognostic factor to predict survival of patients with TET. This study suggest that PORT to only primary tumor bed was optimal. To avoid pleura-or pericardium-based recurrence, further study of effective chemotherapy should be investigated

Effectiveness of accelerated radiotherapy for patients with inoperable non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and borderline prognostic factors without distant metastasis: a retrospective review

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nguyen, Linh N.; Komaki, Ritsuko; Allen, Pamela; Schea, Randi A.; Milas, Luka

1999-01-01

Purpose: The standard treatment for patients with unresectable or medically inoperable non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and good prognostic factors (e.g., weight loss [WL] ≤5% and Karnofsky performance status [KPS] ≥70) is induction chemotherapy followed by definitive radiotherapy to the primary site at 1.8-2.0 Gy per fraction with a total dose of 60-63 Gy to the target volume. Patients with poor prognostic factors usually receive radiotherapy alone, but the fractionation schedule and total dose have not been standardized. To attempt to optimize irradiation doses and schedule, we compared the effectiveness of accelerated radiotherapy (ACRT) alone to 45 Gy at 3 Gy per fraction with standard radiation therapy (STRT) of 60-66 Gy at 2 Gy per fraction in regard to tumor response, local control, distant metastasis, toxicity, and survival. Methods and Materials: Fifty-five patients treated with radiation for NSCLC at The University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center between 1990 and 1994 were identified. All 55 patients had node-positive, and no distant metastasis (N+, M0) of NSCLC. Two cohorts were identified. One cohort (26 patients) had borderline poor prognostic factors (KPS less than 70 but higher than 50, and/or WL of more than 5%) and was treated with radiotherapy alone to 45 Gy over 3 weeks at 3 Gy/fraction (ACRT). The second cohort (29 patients) had significantly better prognostic factors (KPS ≥70 and WL ≤5%) and was treated to 60-66 Gy over 6 to 6((1)/(2)) weeks at 2 Gy per fraction (STRT) during the same period. Results: In the first cohort treated by ACRT, the distribution of patients by AJCC stage was IIB 8%, IIIA 19%, and IIIB 73%. Sixty-two percent had KPS 5%. The maximum response rate as determined by chest X-ray was 60% among 45 of 55 patients who were evaluable for response: combined complete responses (20%) and partial responses (40%). Overall survival in these patients was 13% at 2 and 5 years, with a locoregional control rate of 42% and a

Assessment of corticosteroid-induced alkaline phosphatase as a prognostic indicator in canine lymphoma.

Science.gov (United States)

Wiedemann, A L; Charney, S C; Barger, A M; Schaeffer, D J; Kitchell, B E

2005-04-01

To examine the incidence of elevated corticosteroid-induced alkaline phosphatase (sALP) in dogs with lymphoma and to determine if sALP is a reliable prognostic indicator in canine lymphoma. The medical records of 62 canine lymphoma patients treated with a combination chemotherapy protocol from 1994 to 2003 at the University of Illinois Veterinary Teaching Hospital were examined. Variables assessed with respect to response rate and remission duration included age, bodyweight, sex, breed, World Health Organization stage (I to V), substage (a or b), pretreatment administration of corticosteroid, and serum levels of alkaline phosphatase, sALP and alanine aminotransferase. sALP was not statistically significant with respect to response rate or duration of remission, nor was preinduction glucocorticoid administration. Stage was significant with respect to achieving remission. It was found that sALP is not a useful prognostic indicator for response rate and remission duration in dogs with lymphoma.

Vertical equity of healthcare in Taiwan: health services were distributed according to need

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Wang Shiow-Ing

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Introduction To test the hypothesis that the distribution of healthcare services is according to health need can be achieved under a rather open access system. Methods The 2001 National Health Interview Survey of Taiwan and National Health Insurance claims data were linked in the study. Health need was defined by self-perceived health status. We used Concentration index to measure need-related inequality in healthcare utilization and expenditure. Results People with greater health need received more healthcare services, indicating a pro-need character of healthcare distribution, conforming to the meaning of vertical equity. For outpatient service, subjects with the highest health need had higher proportion of ever use in a year than those who had the least health need and consumed more outpatient visits and expenditures per person per year. Similar patterns were observed for emergency services and hospitalization. The concentration indices of utilization for outpatient, emergency services, and hospitalization suggest that the distribution of utilization was related to health need, whereas the preventive service was less related to need. Conclusions The universal coverage plus healthcare networking system makes it possible for healthcare to be utilized according to need. Taiwan’s experience can serve as a reference for health reform.

Cumulative Intracranial Tumor Volume Augments the Prognostic Value of Diagnosis-Specific Graded Prognostic Assessment Model for Survival in Patients with Melanoma Cerebral Metastases

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hirshman, Brian R; Wilson, Bayard R; Ali, Mir Amaan

2018-01-01

BACKGROUND: The diagnosis-specific graded prognostic assessment scale (ds-GPA) for patients with melanoma brain metastasis (BM) utilizes only 2 key prognostic variables: Karnofsky performance status and the number of intracranial metastases. We wished to determine whether inclusion of cumulative ...

Applicability of RFID in the prognostics of logistic systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lopez De La Cruz, A.M.; Veeke, H.P.M.; Lodewijks, G.

2007-01-01

The objective of this paper is to investigate the applicability of RFID in prognostic logistics. Starting from a general introduction of prognostic logistics, the system structure, and technical requirements are discussed. Based on this discussion the issues and concerns regarding the applicability

Application of molecular biology of differentiated thyroid cancer for clinical prognostication.

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Marotta, Vincenzo; Sciammarella, Concetta; Colao, Annamaria; Faggiano, Antongiulio

2016-11-01

Although cancer outcome results from the interplay between genetics and environment, researchers are making a great effort for applying molecular biology in the prognostication of differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC). Nevertheless, role of molecular characterisation in the prognostic setting of DTC is still nebulous. Among the most common and well-characterised genetic alterations related to DTC, including mutations of BRAF and RAS and RET rearrangements, BRAF V600E is the only mutation showing unequivocal association with clinical outcome. Unfortunately, its accuracy is strongly limited by low specificity. Recently, the introduction of next-generation sequencing techniques led to the identification of TERT promoter and TP53 mutations in DTC. These genetic abnormalities may identify a small subgroup of tumours with highly aggressive behaviour, thus improving specificity of molecular prognostication. Although knowledge of prognostic significance of TP53 mutations is still anecdotal, mutations of the TERT promoter have showed clear association with clinical outcome. Nevertheless, this genetic marker needs to be analysed according to a multigenetic model, as its prognostic effect becomes negligible when present in isolation. Given that any genetic alteration has demonstrated, taken alone, enough specificity, the co-occurrence of driving mutations is emerging as an independent genetic signature of aggressiveness, with possible future application in clinical practice. DTC prognostication may be empowered in the near future by non-tissue molecular prognosticators, including circulating BRAF V600E and miRNAs. Although promising, use of these markers needs to be refined by the technical sight, and the actual prognostic value is still yet to be validated. © 2016 Society for Endocrinology.

Prognostic significance of Glasgow prognostic score in patients undergoing esophagectomy for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, Ji-Feng; Zhao, Qiang; Chen, Qi-Xun

2014-01-01

Recent studies have revealed that Glasgow prognostic score (GPS), an inflammation-based prognostic score, is inversely related to prognosis in a variety of cancers; high levels of GPS is associated with poor prognosis. However, few studies regarding GPS in esophageal cancer (EC) are available. The aim of this study was to determine whether the GPS is useful for predicting cancer-specific survival (CSS) of patients for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). The GPS was calculated on the basis of admission data as follows: Patients with elevated C-reactive protein (CRP) level (>10 mg/L) and hypoalbuminemia (L) were assigned to GPS2. Patients with one or no abnormal value were assigned to GPS1 or GPS0, respectively. Our study showed that GPS was associated with tumor size, depth of invasion, and nodal metastasis (PGPS0, GPS1, and GPS2 were 60.8%, 34.7% and 10.7%, respectively (PGPS was a significant predictor of CSS. GPS1-2 had a hazard ratio (HR) of 2.399 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.805-3.190] for 1-year CSS (PGPS is associated with tumor progression. GPS can be considered as an independent prognostic factor in patients who underwent esophagectomy for ESCC.

Towards Prognostics for Electronics Components

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National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Electronics components have an increasingly critical role in avionics systems and in the development of future aircraft systems. Prognostics of such components is...

Neurological prognostication of outcome in patients in coma after cardiac arrest.

Science.gov (United States)

Rossetti, Andrea O; Rabinstein, Alejandro A; Oddo, Mauro

2016-05-01

Management of coma after cardiac arrest has improved during the past decade, allowing an increasing proportion of patients to survive, thus prognostication has become an integral part of post-resuscitation care. Neurologists are increasingly confronted with raised expectations of next of kin and the necessity to provide early predictions of long-term prognosis. During the past decade, as technology and clinical evidence have evolved, post-cardiac arrest prognostication has moved towards a multimodal paradigm combining clinical examination with additional methods, consisting of electrophysiology, blood biomarkers, and brain imaging, to optimise prognostic accuracy. Prognostication should never be based on a single indicator; although some variables have very low false positive rates for poor outcome, multimodal assessment provides resassurance about the reliability of a prognostic estimate by offering concordant evidence. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison of two prognostic models for acute pulmonary embolism

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Abd-ElRahim Ibrahim Youssef

2016-10-01

Conclusion: (1 There is an agreement to great extent in risk stratification of APE patients by PESI and ESC prognostic models, where mortality rate is increased among high risk classes of both models, (2 ESC prognostic model is more accurate than PESI model in mortality prediction of APE patients especially in the high risk class, (3 echocardiographic evidence of RVD and elevated plasma BNP can help to identify APE patients at increased risk of adverse short-term outcome and (4 integration of RVD assessment by echocardiography and BNP to clinical findings improves the prognostic value of ESC model.

The Biochemical Prognostic Factors of Subclinical Hypothyroidism

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Myung Won Lee

2014-06-01

Full Text Available BackgroundPatients with subclinical hypothyroidism (SHT are common in clinical practice. However, the clinical significance of SHT, including prognosis, has not been established. Further clarifying SHT will be critical in devising a management plan and treatment guidelines for SHT patients. Thus, the aim of this study was to investigate the prognostic factors of SHT.MethodsWe reviewed the medical records of Korean patients who visited the endocrinology outpatient clinic of Severance Hospital from January 2008 to September 2012. Newly-diagnosed patients with SHT were selected and reviewed retrospectively. We compared two groups: the SHT maintenance group and the spontaneous improvement group.ResultsThe SHT maintenance group and the spontaneous improvement group had initial thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH levels that were significantly different (P=0.035. In subanalysis for subjects with TSH levels between 5 to 10 µIU/mL, the spontaneous improvement group showed significantly lower antithyroid peroxidase antibody (anti-TPO-Ab titer than the SHT maintenance group (P=0.039. Regarding lipid profiles, only triglyceride level, unlike total cholesterol and low density lipoprotein cholesterol, was related to TSH level, which is correlated with the severity of SHT. Diffuse thyroiditis on ultrasonography only contributed to the severity of SHT, not to the prognosis. High sensitivity C-reactive protein and urine iodine excretion, generally regarded as possible prognostic factors, did not show any significant relation with the prognosis and severity of SHT.ConclusionOnly initial TSH level was a definite prognostic factor of SHT. TPO-Ab titer was also a helpful prognostic factor for SHT in cases with mildly elevated TSH. Other than TSH and TPO-Ab, we were unable to validate biochemical prognostic factors in this retrospective study for Korean SHT patients.

Prognostic markers for diet-induced weight loss in obese women

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Astrup, A; Buemann, B; Gluud, C

1995-01-01

To identify prognostic metabolic and hormonal markers for long-term weight loss outcome in obese women.......To identify prognostic metabolic and hormonal markers for long-term weight loss outcome in obese women....

Comparison of Glasgow prognostic score and prognostic index in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, Ai-Gui; Chen, Hong-Lin; Lu, Hui-Yu

2015-03-01

Previous studies have shown that Glasgow prognostic score (GPS) and prognostic index (PI) are also powerful prognostic tool for patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). The aim of this study was to compare the prognostic value between GPS and PI. We enrolled consecutive patients with advanced NSCLC in this prospective cohort. GPS and PI were calculated before the onset of chemotherapy. The prognosis outcomes included 1-, 3-, and 5-year progression-free survival and overall survival (OS). The performance of two scores in predicting prognosis was analyzed regarding discrimination and calibration. 138 patients were included in the study. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for GPS predicting 1-year DFS was 0.62 (95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.56-0.68, P statistic showed good fit of the predicted 1-year DFS to the actual 1-year DFS by GPS (χ(2) = 4.326, P = 0.462), while no fit was found between the predicted 1-year DFS and the actual 1-year DFS by PI (χ(2) = 15.234, P = 0.091). Similar results of calibration power were found for predicting 3-year DFS, 5-year DFS, 1-year OS, 3-year OS, and 5-year OS by GPS and PI. GPS is more accurate than PI in predicting prognosis for patients with advanced NSCLC. GPS can be used as a useful and simple tool for predicting prognosis in patients with NSCLC. However, GPS only can be used for preliminary assessment because of low predicting accuracy.

Vibration Analysis and Time Series Prediction for Wind Turbine Gearbox Prognostics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hossam A. Gabbar

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Premature failure of a gearbox in a wind turbine poses a high risk of increasing the operational and maintenance costs and decreasing the profit margins. Prognostics and health management (PHM techniques are widely used to access the current health condition of the gearbox and project it in future to predict premature failures. This paper proposes such techniques for predicting gearbox health condition index extracted from the vibration signals emanating from the gearbox. The progression of the monitoring index is predicted using two different prediction techniques, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS and nonlinear autoregressive model with exogenous inputs (NARX. The proposed prediction techniques are evaluated through sun-spot data-set and applied on vibration based health related monitoring index calculated through psychoacoustic phenomenon. A comparison is given for their prediction accuracy. The results are helpful in understanding the relationship of machine conditions, the corresponding indicating features, the level of damage/degradation, and their progression.

Some interesting prognostic factors related to cutaneous malignant melanoma

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Figueroa, Alejandro Yuri Joan; Diaz Anaya, Amnia; Montero Leon, Jorge Felipe; Jimenez Mendes, Lourdes

2009-01-01

The aim of present research was to determine the independent prognostic value and the 3 and 5 years survival of more significant clinicopathological prognostic factors and in each stage, according to pathological staging system of tumor-nodule-metastasis (TNM) in patients with cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM)

Prognostic Value of Quantitative Stress Perfusion Cardiac Magnetic Resonance.

Science.gov (United States)

Sammut, Eva C; Villa, Adriana D M; Di Giovine, Gabriella; Dancy, Luke; Bosio, Filippo; Gibbs, Thomas; Jeyabraba, Swarna; Schwenke, Susanne; Williams, Steven E; Marber, Michael; Alfakih, Khaled; Ismail, Tevfik F; Razavi, Reza; Chiribiri, Amedeo

2018-05-01

This study sought to evaluate the prognostic usefulness of visual and quantitative perfusion cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) ischemic burden in an unselected group of patients and to assess the validity of consensus-based ischemic burden thresholds extrapolated from nuclear studies. There are limited data on the prognostic value of assessing myocardial ischemic burden by CMR, and there are none using quantitative perfusion analysis. Patients with suspected coronary artery disease referred for adenosine-stress perfusion CMR were included (n = 395; 70% male; age 58 ± 13 years). The primary endpoint was a composite of cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, aborted sudden death, and revascularization after 90 days. Perfusion scans were assessed visually and with quantitative analysis. Cross-validated Cox regression analysis and net reclassification improvement were used to assess the incremental prognostic value of visual or quantitative perfusion analysis over a baseline clinical model, initially as continuous covariates, then using accepted thresholds of ≥2 segments or ≥10% myocardium. After a median 460 days (interquartile range: 190 to 869 days) follow-up, 52 patients reached the primary endpoint. At 2 years, the addition of ischemic burden was found to increase prognostic value over a baseline model of age, sex, and late gadolinium enhancement (baseline model area under the curve [AUC]: 0.75; visual AUC: 0.84; quantitative AUC: 0.85). Dichotomized quantitative ischemic burden performed better than visual assessment (net reclassification improvement 0.043 vs. 0.003 against baseline model). This study was the first to address the prognostic benefit of quantitative analysis of perfusion CMR and to support the use of consensus-based ischemic burden thresholds by perfusion CMR for prognostic evaluation of patients with suspected coronary artery disease. Quantitative analysis provided incremental prognostic value to visual assessment and

Updating and prospective validation of a prognostic model for high sickness absence.

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Roelen, C A M; Heymans, M W; Twisk, J W R; van Rhenen, W; Pallesen, S; Bjorvatn, B; Moen, B E; Magerøy, N

2015-01-01

To further develop and validate a Dutch prognostic model for high sickness absence (SA). Three-wave longitudinal cohort study of 2,059 Norwegian nurses. The Dutch prognostic model was used to predict high SA among Norwegian nurses at wave 2. Subsequently, the model was updated by adding person-related (age, gender, marital status, children at home, and coping strategies), health-related (BMI, physical activity, smoking, and caffeine and alcohol intake), and work-related (job satisfaction, job demands, decision latitude, social support at work, and both work-to-family and family-to-work spillover) variables. The updated model was then prospectively validated for predictions at wave 3. 1,557 (77 %) nurses had complete data at wave 2 and 1,342 (65 %) at wave 3. The risk of high SA was under-estimated by the Dutch model, but discrimination between high-risk and low-risk nurses was fair after re-calibration to the Norwegian data. Gender, marital status, BMI, physical activity, smoking, alcohol intake, job satisfaction, job demands, decision latitude, support at the workplace, and work-to-family spillover were identified as potential predictors of high SA. However, these predictors did not improve the model's discriminative ability, which remained fair at wave 3. The prognostic model correctly identifies 73 % of Norwegian nurses at risk of high SA, although additional predictors are needed before the model can be used to screen working populations for risk of high SA.

On the measurement of the (multidimensional) inequality of health distributions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hougaard, Jens Leth; Moreno-Ternero, Juan D.; Østerdal, Lars Peter Raahave

2013-01-01

a standard mathematical structure. We single out two families of (absolute and relative) multidimensional health inequality indices, inspired by the classical normative approach to income inequality measurement. We also discuss how to extend the analysis to deal with the related problem of health deprivation......Health outcomes are often described according to two dimensions: quality of life and quantity of life. We analyze the measurement of inequality of health distributions referring to these two dimensions. Our analysis relies on a novel treatment of the quality-of-life dimension, which might not have...

The Prognostic Value of Haplotypes in the Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Torben Frøstrup; Spindler, Karen-Lise Garm; Andersen, Rikke Fredslund

2010-01-01

Abstract: New prognostic markers in patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) are a prerequisite for individualized treatment. Prognostic importance of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the vascular endothelial growth factor A (VEGF-A) gene has been proposed. The objective of the present study...... using the PHASE program. The prognostic influence was evaluated using Kaplan-Meir plots and log rank tests. Cox regression method was used to analyze the independent prognostic importance of different markers. All three SNPs were significantly related to survival. A haplotype combination, responsible...... findings in a second and independent cohort. Haplotype combinations call for further investigation. Keywords: colorectal neoplasm; single nucleotide polymorphisms; haplotypes; vascular endothelial growth factor A; survival...

Prognostic, quantitative histopathologic variables in lobular carcinoma of the breast

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ladekarl, M; Sørensen, Flemming Brandt

1993-01-01

BACKGROUND: A retrospective investigation of 53 consecutively treated patients with operable lobular carcinoma of the breast, with a median follow-up of 6.6 years, was performed to examine the prognostic value of quantitative histopathologic parameters.METHODS: The measurements were performed...... of disease, vv(nuc), MI, and NI were of significant independent, prognostic value. On the basis of the multivariate analyses, a prognostic index with highly distinguishing capacity between prognostically poor and favorable cases was constructed.CONCLUSION: Quantitative histopathologic variables are of value...... for objective grading of malignancy in lobular carcinomas. The new parameter--estimates of the mean nuclear volume--is highly reproducible and suitable for routine use. However, larger and prospective studies are needed to establish the true value of the quantitative histopathologic variables in the clinical...

Prognostic, quantitative histopathologic variables in lobular carcinoma of the breast

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ladekarl, M; Sørensen, Flemming Brandt

1993-01-01

BACKGROUND: A retrospective investigation of 53 consecutively treated patients with operable lobular carcinoma of the breast, with a median follow-up of 6.6 years, was performed to examine the prognostic value of quantitative histopathologic parameters. METHODS: The measurements were performed...... of disease, vv(nuc), MI, and NI were of significant independent, prognostic value. On the basis of the multivariate analyses, a prognostic index with highly distinguishing capacity between prognostically poor and favorable cases was constructed. CONCLUSION: Quantitative histopathologic variables are of value...... for objective grading of malignancy in lobular carcinomas. The new parameter--estimates of the mean nuclear volume--is highly reproducible and suitable for routine use. However, larger and prospective studies are needed to establish the true value of the quantitative histopathologic variables in the clinical...

Prognostic value of Child-Turcotte criteria in medically treated cirrhosis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, E; Schlichting, P; Fauerholdt, L

1984-01-01

The Child- Turcotte criteria (CTC) (based on serum bilirubin and albumin, ascites, neurological disorder and nutrition) are established prognostic factors in patients with cirrhosis having portacaval shunt surgery. The objective of this study was to evaluate the prognostic value of CTC in conserv......The Child- Turcotte criteria (CTC) (based on serum bilirubin and albumin, ascites, neurological disorder and nutrition) are established prognostic factors in patients with cirrhosis having portacaval shunt surgery. The objective of this study was to evaluate the prognostic value of CTC...... compared using the log-rank test. Survival decreased significantly with increasing degree of abnormality (A----B----C) of albumin (p less than 0.001), ascites (p less than 0.001), bilirubin (p = 0.02) and nutritional status (p = 0.03). Survival was insignificantly influenced by neurological status (p = 0...

Prognostic factors in oligodendrogliomas

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Westergaard, L; Gjerris, F; Klinken, L

1997-01-01

An outcome analysis was performed on 96 patients with pure cerebral oligodendrogliomas operated in the 30-year period 1962 to 1991. The most important predictive prognostic factors were youth and no neurological deficit, demonstrated as a median survival for the group younger than 20 years of 17...

Prognostic factors in canine appendicular osteosarcoma - a meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Boerman, Ilse; Selvarajah, Gayathri T; Nielen, Mirjam; Kirpensteijn, Jolle

2012-05-15

Appendicular osteosarcoma is the most common malignant primary canine bone tumor. When treated by amputation or tumor removal alone, median survival times (MST) do not exceed 5 months, with the majority of dogs suffering from metastatic disease. This period can be extended with adequate local intervention and adjuvant chemotherapy, which has become common practice. Several prognostic factors have been reported in many different studies, e.g. age, breed, weight, sex, neuter status, location of tumor, serum alkaline phosphatase (SALP), bone alkaline phosphatase (BALP), infection, percentage of bone length affected, histological grade or histological subtype of tumor. Most of these factors are, however, only reported as confounding factors in larger studies. Insight in truly significant prognostic factors at time of diagnosis may contribute to tailoring adjuvant therapy for individual dogs suffering from osteosarcoma. The objective of this study was to systematically review the prognostic factors that are described for canine appendicular osteosarcoma and validate their scientific importance. A literature review was performed on selected studies and eligible data were extracted. Meta-analyses were done for two of the three selected possible prognostic factors (SALP and location), looking at both survival time (ST) and disease free interval (DFI). The third factor (age) was studied in a qualitative manner. Both elevated SALP level and the (proximal) humerus as location of the primary tumor are significant negative prognostic factors for both ST and DFI in dogs with appendicular osteosarcoma. Increasing age was associated with shorter ST and DFI, however, was not statistically significant because information of this factor was available in only a limited number of papers. Elevated SALP and proximal humeral location are significant negative prognosticators for canine osteosarcoma.

The prognostic value of FET PET at radiotherapy planning in newly diagnosed glioblastoma

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Poulsen, Sidsel Højklint; Urup, Thomas; Grunnet, Kirsten

2017-01-01

the prognostic value of FET PET biological tumor volume (BTV). RESULTS: Median follow-up time was 14 months, and median OS and PFS were 16.5 and 6.5 months, respectively. In the multivariate analysis, increasing BTV (HR = 1.17, P ...-DNA methyltransferase protein status (HR = 1.61, P = 0.024) and higher age (HR = 1.32, P = 0.013) were independent prognostic factors of poor OS. For poor PFS, only increasing BTV (HR = 1.18; P = 0.002) was prognostic. A prognostic index for OS was created based on the identified prognostic factors. CONCLUSION: Large...

Biological Prognostic Markers in Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia

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Vladimíra Vroblová

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL is the most frequent leukemic disease of adults in the Western world. It is remarkable by an extraordinary heterogeneity of clinical course with overall survival ranging from several months to more than 15 years. Classical staging sytems by Rai and Binet, while readily available and useful for initial assessment of prognosis, are not able to determine individual patient’s ongoing clinical course of CLL at the time of diagnosis, especially in early stages. Therefore, newer biological prognostic parameters are currently being clinically evaluated. Mutational status of variable region of immunoglobulin heavy chain genes (IgVH, cytogenetic aberrations, and both intracellular ZAP- 70 and surface CD38 expression are recognized as parameters with established prognostic value. Molecules regulating the process of angiogenesis are also considered as promising markers. The purpose of this review is to summarize in detail the specific role of these prognostic factors in chronic lymphocytic leukemia.

Development of a Mobile Robot Test Platform and Methods for Validation of Prognostics-Enabled Decision Making Algorithms

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Jose R. Celaya

2013-01-01

Full Text Available As fault diagnosis and prognosis systems in aerospace applications become more capable, the ability to utilize information supplied by them becomes increasingly important. While certain types of vehicle health data can be effectively processed and acted upon by crew or support personnel, others, due to their complexity or time constraints, require either automated or semi-automated reasoning. Prognostics-enabled Decision Making (PDM is an emerging research area that aims to integrate prognostic health information and knowledge about the future operating conditions into the process of selecting subsequent actions for the system. The newly developed PDM algorithms require suitable software and hardware platforms for testing under realistic fault scenarios. The paper describes the development of such a platform, based on the K11 planetary rover prototype. A variety of injectable fault modes are being investigated for electrical, mechanical, and power subsystems of the testbed, along with methods for data collection and processing. In addition to the hardware platform, a software simulator with matching capabilities has been developed. The simulator allows for prototyping and initial validation of the algorithms prior to their deployment on the K11. The simulator is also available to the PDM algorithms to assist with the reasoning process. A reference set of diagnostic, prognostic, and decision making algorithms is also described, followed by an overview of the current test scenarios and the results of their execution on the simulator.

Accelerated Aging in Electrolytic Capacitors for Prognostics

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Celaya, Jose R.; Kulkarni, Chetan; Saha, Sankalita; Biswas, Gautam; Goebel, Kai Frank

2012-01-01

The focus of this work is the analysis of different degradation phenomena based on thermal overstress and electrical overstress accelerated aging systems and the use of accelerated aging techniques for prognostics algorithm development. Results on thermal overstress and electrical overstress experiments are presented. In addition, preliminary results toward the development of physics-based degradation models are presented focusing on the electrolyte evaporation failure mechanism. An empirical degradation model based on percentage capacitance loss under electrical overstress is presented and used in: (i) a Bayesian-based implementation of model-based prognostics using a discrete Kalman filter for health state estimation, and (ii) a dynamic system representation of the degradation model for forecasting and remaining useful life (RUL) estimation. A leave-one-out validation methodology is used to assess the validity of the methodology under the small sample size constrain. The results observed on the RUL estimation are consistent through the validation tests comparing relative accuracy and prediction error. It has been observed that the inaccuracy of the model to represent the change in degradation behavior observed at the end of the test data is consistent throughout the validation tests, indicating the need of a more detailed degradation model or the use of an algorithm that could estimate model parameters on-line. Based on the observed degradation process under different stress intensity with rest periods, the need for more sophisticated degradation models is further supported. The current degradation model does not represent the capacitance recovery over rest periods following an accelerated aging stress period.

The use of prognostic factors in metastatic renal cell carcinoma.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Haoran; Samawi, Haider; Heng, Daniel Y C

2015-12-01

Over the last decade, the treatment landscape of metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC) has evolved tremendously. The outcome of patients with mRCC has been improved since the advent of targeted therapy. In this review, we address the use of prognostic schema in the era of targeted treatment. This article summarizes the current available prognostic models and the evidence to support their use in clinical settings. Prognostic models can help guide clinicians in their decision making, as they have been validated in the first- and second-line targeted therapy settings as well as in non-clear cell mRCC. Prognostic factors are important in patient counseling, clinical trial stratification, and therapy planning. Very selected favorable-risk patients with minimal bulk and slow-growing disease could potentially be observed before needing treatment. Patients with poor-risk disease may be eligible for treatment with temsirolimus. Patients with a very poor prognosis may not be suitable candidates for cytoreductive nephrectomy. New biomarkers are on the horizon, though their roles need to be validated and their additive contribution to improve existing prognostic models examined. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Maintenance-based prognostics of nuclear plant equipment for long-term operation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Welz, Zachary; Coble, Jamie; Upadhyaya, Belle; Hines, Wes [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (United States)

2017-08-15

While industry understands the importance of keeping equipment operational and well maintained, the importance of tracking maintenance information in reliability models is often overlooked. Prognostic models can be used to predict the failure times of critical equipment, but more often than not, these models assume that all maintenance actions are the same or do not consider maintenance at all. This study investigates the influence of integrating maintenance information on prognostic model prediction accuracy. By incorporating maintenance information to develop maintenance-dependent prognostic models, prediction accuracy was improved by more than 40% compared with traditional maintenance-independent models. This study acts as a proof of concept, showing the importance of utilizing maintenance information in modern prognostics for industrial equipment.

Preoperative prognostic factors for mortality in peptic ulcer perforation: a systematic review

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller, Morten Hylander; Adamsen, S.; Thomsen, R.W.

2010-01-01

in the review. The overall methodological quality was acceptable, yet only two-thirds of the studies provided confounder adjusted estimates. The studies provided strong evidence for an association of older age, comorbidity, and use of NSAIDs or steroids with mortality. Shock upon admission, preoperative...... was to summarize available evidence on these prognostic factors. Material and methods. MEDLINE (January 1966 to June 2009), EMBASE (January 1980 to June 2009), and the Cochrane Library (Issue 3, 2009) were screened for studies reporting preoperative prognostic factors for mortality in patients with PPU....... The methodological quality of the included studies was assessed. Summary relative risks with 95% confidence intervals for the identified prognostic factors were calculated and presented as Forest plots. Results. Fifty prognostic studies with 37 prognostic factors comprising a total of 29,782 patients were included...

Selected acute phase CSF factors in ischemic stroke: findings and prognostic value

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Intskirveli Nino

2011-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Study aimed at investigation of pathogenic role and prognostic value of several selected cerebrospinal fluid acute phase factors that can reflect the severity of ischemic brain damage. Methods Ninety five acute ischemic stroke patients were investigated. Ischemic region visualized at the twenty fourth hour by conventional Magnetic Resonance Imaging. Stroke severity evaluated by National Institute Health Stroke Scale. One month outcome of disease was assessed by Barthel Index. Cerebrospinal fluid was taken at the sixth hour of stroke onset. CSF pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines were studied by Enzyme Linked Immunosorbent Assay. Nitric Oxide and Lipoperoxide radical were measured by Electron Paramagnetic Resonance. CSF Nitrate levels were detected using the Griess reagent. Statistics performed by SPSS-11.0. Results At the sixth hour of stroke onset, cerebrospinal fluid cytokine levels were elevated in patients against controls. Severe stroke patients had increased interleukin-6 content compared to less severe strokes (P Conclusion According to present study the cerebrospinal fluid contents of interleukin-6 and nitrates seem to be the most reliable prognostic factors in acute phase of ischemic stroke.

[The prognostic value of variables from the quality assurance program and of the rehabilitation-discharge report of the LVA Baden-Württemberg for early retirement: results of a retrospective cohort-study].

Science.gov (United States)

Küpper-Nybelen, J; Rothenbacher, D; Jacobi, E; Brenner, H

2003-12-01

Since 1997 the LVA Baden-Württemberg pension insurance agency has implemented an instrument to measure the outcome quality of in-patient rehabilitation. The objective of this study was to evaluate the prognostic value of various short-term rehabilitation success markers and of variables of the quality assurance program and the rehab-discharge report of the LVA Baden-Württemberg on early retirement by means of a retrospective cohort study. The analysis was based on routinely registered data of patients who underwent in-hospital rehabilitation in a hospital accredited by the LVA Baden-Württemberg between June 1997 and June 1999. Baseline data included information from medical discharge reports and from the quality assurance programme. Follow-up information with regard to disability was collected until July 2000. The prognostic value of the quality assurance programme and of 4 standardized documented items from the medical discharge report was estimated by proportional hazards regression. In this analysis 6,823 patients aged 30-59 years who underwent an in-patient rehab programme between June 1997 and July 1999 in 5 of 6 LVA rehab clinics were included. During follow-up (mean duration: 1.8 years) 908 (13.3%) patients retired because of health-related disability. The variables with the strongest prognostic values were the evaluation of the patient health status by the physician and the patients themselves and the capacity to work. The variables with the highest prognostic value were the evaluation on a 1-6 visual analogue scale; a better assessment by one mark of the health status by physician and patient himself, respectively, was associated with a 53% and 40% reduced risk of disability. Fitness for work at discharge was the most prognostic variable from the discharge report. Patients who were able to work had a 78% reduced risk of disability compared to patients unable to work. Also of prognostic relevance were a positive performance and the duration of the

Assessment of diagnostic and prognostic condition indices for efficient and robust maintenance decision-making of systems subject to stress corrosion cracking

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huynh, K.T.; Grall, A.; Bérenguer, C.

2017-01-01

Seeking condition indices characterizing the health state of a system is a key problem in condition-based maintenance. For this purpose, diagnostic and prognostic models have been unceasingly developed and improved over the past few decades; nevertheless none of them explains thoroughly the impacts of such indices on the effectiveness of maintenance operations. As a complement to these efforts, this paper analyzes the effectiveness of some well-known diagnostic and prognostic indices for maintenance decision-making. The study is based on a system subject to competing risks due to multiple crack paths. A periodic inspection scheme is used to monitor the system health state. Each inspection returns the perfect diagnostic information: the number of cracks, corresponding crack sizes, and the system failure/working state. Based on this information, two kinds of prognostic condition indices are predicted: the average value and probability law of the system residual useful life. The associated condition-based maintenance strategies and cost models are then developed and compared with the ones whose maintenance decisions are based on diagnostic condition indices. The comparison results allow us to conclude on the performance and on the robustness of these strategies, hence giving some suggestions on the choice of reliable condition indices for maintenance decision-making. - Highlights: • Developing a new and generic degradation and failure model. • Synthesizing diagnostic and prognostic condition indices on the basis of the developed degradation and failure model. • Building diagnosis and prognosis-based maintenance strategies, and developing the associated cost models. • Assessing the performance and robustness of the considered strategies to find out reliable indices.

Where are the NGOs and why? The distribution of health and development NGOs in Bolivia

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Galway Lindsay P

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The presence and influence of nongovernmental organizations (NGOs in the landscape of global health and development have dramatically increased over the past several decades. The distribution of NGO activity and the ways in which contextual factors influence the distribution of NGO activity across geographies merit study. This paper explores the distribution of NGO activity, using Bolivia as a case study, and identifies local factors that are related to the distribution of NGO activity across municipalities in Bolivia. Methods The research question is addressed using a geographic information system (GIS and multiple regression analyses of count data. We used count data of the total number of NGO projects across Bolivian municipalities to measure NGO activity both in general and in the health sector specifically and national census data for explanatory variables of interest. Results This study provides one of the first empirical analyses exploring factors related to the distribution of NGO activity at the national scale. Our analyses show that NGO activity in Bolivia, both in general and health-sector specific, is distributed unevenly across the country. Results indicate that NGO activity is related to population size, extent of urbanization, size of the indigenous population, and health system coverage. Results for NGO activity in general and health-sector specific NGO activity were similar. Conclusions The uneven distribution of NGO activity may suggest a lack of co-ordination among NGOs working in Bolivia as well as a lack of co-ordination among NGO funders. Co-ordination of NGO activity is most needed in regions characterized by high NGO activity in order to avoid duplication of services and programmes and inefficient use of limited resources. Our findings also indicate that neither general nor health specific NGO activity is related to population need, when defined as population health status or education level or poverty

Where are the NGOs and why? The distribution of health and development NGOs in Bolivia.

Science.gov (United States)

Galway, Lindsay P; Corbett, Kitty K; Zeng, Leilei

2012-11-23

The presence and influence of nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) in the landscape of global health and development have dramatically increased over the past several decades. The distribution of NGO activity and the ways in which contextual factors influence the distribution of NGO activity across geographies merit study. This paper explores the distribution of NGO activity, using Bolivia as a case study, and identifies local factors that are related to the distribution of NGO activity across municipalities in Bolivia. The research question is addressed using a geographic information system (GIS) and multiple regression analyses of count data. We used count data of the total number of NGO projects across Bolivian municipalities to measure NGO activity both in general and in the health sector specifically and national census data for explanatory variables of interest. This study provides one of the first empirical analyses exploring factors related to the distribution of NGO activity at the national scale. Our analyses show that NGO activity in Bolivia, both in general and health-sector specific, is distributed unevenly across the country. Results indicate that NGO activity is related to population size, extent of urbanization, size of the indigenous population, and health system coverage. Results for NGO activity in general and health-sector specific NGO activity were similar. The uneven distribution of NGO activity may suggest a lack of co-ordination among NGOs working in Bolivia as well as a lack of co-ordination among NGO funders. Co-ordination of NGO activity is most needed in regions characterized by high NGO activity in order to avoid duplication of services and programmes and inefficient use of limited resources. Our findings also indicate that neither general nor health specific NGO activity is related to population need, when defined as population health status or education level or poverty levels. Considering these results we discuss broader implications

Undifferentiated-type gastric adenocarcinoma: prognostic impact of three histological types

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Lee Han

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The prognostic value of the three constituents of undifferentiated-type gastric adenocarcinoma remains unclear. The present study assessed the clinicopathological characteristics and prognosis of undifferentiated-type mucinous adenocarcinoma (uMAC and signet ring cell carcinoma (SRC compared with those of poorly differentiated adenocarcinoma (PDAC. Methods In total, 1,376 patients with undifferentiated-type gastric adenocarcinoma were included, consisting of 1,002 patients diagnosed with PDAC, 54 with uMAC and 320 with SRC. Clinicopathological factors and survival rates were compared among the three histological types. Results Significant differences in the distribution of pathological stages were observed among the groups. Patients with SRC had a significantly better survival rate than those with PDAC or uMAC, in both the all patients including non-curative resected patients and curative-resected groups. In addition, there was significant difference in survival between the PDAC and uMAC groups. Multivariate analysis suggested that age, gender, tumor depth, lymph node metastasis and curability significantly affected survival. Histological type was not an independent prognostic factor. There was no significant difference in the pattern of recurrence among the three groups. Conclusions The uMAC and SRC had worse and favorable prognosis compared with PDCA, respectively. However, there were no differences in survival by pathological stage, thus histological type was not an independent predictor of prognosis.

Prognostic value of fasting versus nonfasting low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels on long-term mortality: insight from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey III (NHANES-III).

Science.gov (United States)

Doran, Bethany; Guo, Yu; Xu, Jinfeng; Weintraub, Howard; Mora, Samia; Maron, David J; Bangalore, Sripal

2014-08-12

National and international guidelines recommend fasting lipid panel measurement for risk stratification of patients for prevention of cardiovascular events. However, the prognostic value of fasting versus nonfasting low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) is uncertain. Patients enrolled in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey III (NHANES-III), a nationally representative cross-sectional survey performed from 1988 to 1994, were stratified on the basis of fasting status (≥8 or fasting and nonfasting cohorts with similar baseline characteristics. The risk of outcomes as a function of LDL-C and fasting status was assessed with the use of receiver operating characteristic curves and bootstrapping methods. The interaction between fasting status and LDL-C was assessed with Cox proportional hazards modeling. Primary outcome was all-cause mortality. Secondary outcome was cardiovascular mortality. One-to-one matching based on propensity score yielded 4299 pairs of fasting and nonfasting individuals. For the primary outcome, fasting LDL-C yielded prognostic value similar to that for nonfasting LDL-C (C statistic=0.59 [95% confidence interval, 0.57-0.61] versus 0.58 [95% confidence interval, 0.56-0.60]; P=0.73), and LDL-C by fasting status interaction term in the Cox proportional hazards model was not significant (Pinteraction=0.11). Similar results were seen for the secondary outcome (fasting versus nonfasting C statistic=0.62 [95% confidence interval, 0.60-0.66] versus 0.62 [95% confidence interval, 0.60-0.66]; P=0.96; Pinteraction=0.34). Nonfasting LDL-C has prognostic value similar to that of fasting LDL-C. National and international agencies should consider reevaluating the recommendation that patients fast before obtaining a lipid panel. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

Volume-Based F-18 FDG PET/CT Imaging Markers Provide Supplemental Prognostic Information to Histologic Grading in Patients With High-Grade Bone or Soft Tissue Sarcoma

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Kim Francis; Fuglo, Hanna Maria; Rasmussen, Sine Hvid

2015-01-01

analysis. Kaplan-Meier survival estimates and log-rank test were used to compare the degree of equality of survival distributions. Prognostic variables with related hazard ratios (HR) were assessed using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis.Forty-one of 92 patients died during follow-up (45%; 12 BS.......05, HR 3.37 [95% CI 1.02-11.11]). No significant results were demonstrated for MTV40%.Volume-based F-18 FDG PET/CT imaging markers in terms of pretreatment estimation of TLG provide supplemental prognostic information to histologic grading, with significant independent properties for prediction...

The prognostic value of FET PET at radiotherapy planning in newly diagnosed glioblastoma

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hoejklint Poulsen, Sidsel [The Finsen Center, Rigshospitalet, Department of Radiation Biology, Copenhagen (Denmark); Center of Diagnostic Investigation, Rigshospitalet, Department of Clinical Physiology, Nuclear Medicine and PET, Copenhagen (Denmark); Urup, Thomas; Grunnet, Kirsten; Skovgaard Poulsen, Hans [The Finsen Center, Rigshospitalet, Department of Radiation Biology, Copenhagen (Denmark); The Finsen Center, Rigshospitalet, Department of Oncology, Copenhagen (Denmark); Jarle Christensen, Ib [University of Copenhagen, Hvidovre Hospital, Laboratory of Gastroenterology, Copenhagen (Denmark); Larsen, Vibeke Andree [Center of Diagnostic Investigation, Rigshospitalet, Department of Radiology, Copenhagen (Denmark); Lundemann Jensen, Michael; Munck af Rosenschoeld, Per [The Finsen Center, Rigshospitalet, Department of Oncology, Copenhagen (Denmark); The Finsen Center, Rigshospitalet, Section of Radiotherapy, Copenhagen (Denmark); Law, Ian [Center of Diagnostic Investigation, Rigshospitalet, Department of Clinical Physiology, Nuclear Medicine and PET, Copenhagen (Denmark)

2017-03-15

Glioblastoma patients show a great variability in progression free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). To gain additional pretherapeutic information, we explored the potential of O-(2-{sup 18}F-fluoroethyl)-L-tyrosine (FET) PET as an independent prognostic biomarker. We retrospectively analyzed 146 consecutively treated, newly diagnosed glioblastoma patients. All patients were treated with temozolomide and radiation therapy (RT). CT/MR and FET PET scans were obtained postoperatively for RT planning. We used Cox proportional hazards models with OS and PFS as endpoints, to test the prognostic value of FET PET biological tumor volume (BTV). Median follow-up time was 14 months, and median OS and PFS were 16.5 and 6.5 months, respectively. In the multivariate analysis, increasing BTV (HR = 1.17, P < 0.001), poor performance status (HR = 2.35, P < 0.001), O(6)-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase protein status (HR = 1.61, P = 0.024) and higher age (HR = 1.32, P = 0.013) were independent prognostic factors of poor OS. For poor PFS, only increasing BTV (HR = 1.18; P = 0.002) was prognostic. A prognostic index for OS was created based on the identified prognostic factors. Large BTV on FET PET is an independent prognostic factor of poor OS and PFS in glioblastoma patients. With the introduction of FET PET, we obtain a prognostic index that can help in glioblastoma treatment planning. (orig.)

Contemporary approach to neurologic prognostication of coma after cardiac arrest.

Science.gov (United States)

Ben-Hamouda, Nawfel; Taccone, Fabio S; Rossetti, Andrea O; Oddo, Mauro

2014-11-01

Coma after cardiac arrest (CA) is an important cause of admission to the ICU. Prognosis of post-CA coma has significantly improved over the past decade, particularly because of aggressive postresuscitation care and the use of therapeutic targeted temperature management (TTM). TTM and sedatives used to maintain controlled cooling might delay neurologic reflexes and reduce the accuracy of clinical examination. In the early ICU phase, patients' good recovery may often be indistinguishable (based on neurologic examination alone) from patients who eventually will have a poor prognosis. Prognostication of post-CA coma, therefore, has evolved toward a multimodal approach that combines neurologic examination with EEG and evoked potentials. Blood biomarkers (eg, neuron-specific enolase [NSE] and soluble 100-β protein) are useful complements for coma prognostication; however, results vary among commercial laboratory assays, and applying one single cutoff level (eg, > 33 μg/L for NSE) for poor prognostication is not recommended. Neuroimaging, mainly diffusion MRI, is emerging as a promising tool for prognostication, but its precise role needs further study before it can be widely used. This multimodal approach might reduce false-positive rates of poor prognosis, thereby providing optimal prognostication of comatose CA survivors. The aim of this review is to summarize studies and the principal tools presently available for outcome prediction and to describe a practical approach to the multimodal prognostication of coma after CA, with a particular focus on neuromonitoring tools. We also propose an algorithm for the optimal use of such multimodal tools during the early ICU phase of post-CA coma.

Intercomparisons of Prognostic, Diagnostic, and Inversion Modeling Approaches for Estimation of Net Ecosystem Exchange over the Pacific Northwest Region

Science.gov (United States)

Turner, D. P.; Jacobson, A. R.; Nemani, R. R.

2013-12-01

The recent development of large spatially-explicit datasets for multiple variables relevant to monitoring terrestrial carbon flux offers the opportunity to estimate the terrestrial land flux using several alternative, potentially complimentary, approaches. Here we developed and compared regional estimates of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) over the Pacific Northwest region of the U.S. using three approaches. In the prognostic modeling approach, the process-based Biome-BGC model was driven by distributed meteorological station data and was informed by Landsat-based coverages of forest stand age and disturbance regime. In the diagnostic modeling approach, the quasi-mechanistic CFLUX model estimated net ecosystem production (NEP) by upscaling eddy covariance flux tower observations. The model was driven by distributed climate data and MODIS FPAR (the fraction of incident PAR that is absorbed by the vegetation canopy). It was informed by coarse resolution (1 km) data about forest stand age. In both the prognostic and diagnostic modeling approaches, emissions estimates for biomass burning, harvested products, and river/stream evasion were added to model-based NEP to get NEE. The inversion model (CarbonTracker) relied on observations of atmospheric CO2 concentration to optimize prior surface carbon flux estimates. The Pacific Northwest is heterogeneous with respect to land cover and forest management, and repeated surveys of forest inventory plots support the presence of a strong regional carbon sink. The diagnostic model suggested a stronger carbon sink than the prognostic model, and a much larger sink that the inversion model. The introduction of Landsat data on disturbance history served to reduce uncertainty with respect to regional NEE in the diagnostic and prognostic modeling approaches. The FPAR data was particularly helpful in capturing the seasonality of the carbon flux using the diagnostic modeling approach. The inversion approach took advantage of a global

Health Canada unveils plan to distribute marijuana for medical use.

Science.gov (United States)

Thaczuk, Derek

2003-08-01

Under pressure from the courts, Health Canada reluctantly comes up with a distribution plan to provide dried cannabis and seeds to patients using medical marijuana. The plan has been greeted with considerable criticism

A review on prognostic techniques for non-stationary and non-linear rotating systems

Science.gov (United States)

Kan, Man Shan; Tan, Andy C. C.; Mathew, Joseph

2015-10-01

The field of prognostics has attracted significant interest from the research community in recent times. Prognostics enables the prediction of failures in machines resulting in benefits to plant operators such as shorter downtimes, higher operation reliability, reduced operations and maintenance cost, and more effective maintenance and logistics planning. Prognostic systems have been successfully deployed for the monitoring of relatively simple rotating machines. However, machines and associated systems today are increasingly complex. As such, there is an urgent need to develop prognostic techniques for such complex systems operating in the real world. This review paper focuses on prognostic techniques that can be applied to rotating machinery operating under non-linear and non-stationary conditions. The general concept of these techniques, the pros and cons of applying these methods, as well as their applications in the research field are discussed. Finally, the opportunities and challenges in implementing prognostic systems and developing effective techniques for monitoring machines operating under non-stationary and non-linear conditions are also discussed.

Integrated System Health Management (ISHM) and Autonomy

Science.gov (United States)

Figueroa, Fernando; Walker, Mark G.

2018-01-01

Systems capabilities on ISHM (Integrated System Health Management) and autonomy have traditionally been addressed separately. This means that ISHM functions, such as anomaly detection, diagnostics, prognostics, and comprehensive system awareness have not been considered traditionally in the context of autonomy functions such as planning, scheduling, and mission execution. One key reason is that although they address systems capabilities, both ISHM and autonomy have traditionally individually been approached as independent strategies and models for analysis. Additionally, to some degree, a unified paradigm for ISHM and autonomy has been difficult to implement due to limitations of hardware and software. This paper explores a unified treatment of ISHM and autonomy in the context of distributed hierarchical autonomous operations.

Health expenditure growth: looking beyond the average through decomposition of the full distribution.

Science.gov (United States)

de Meijer, Claudine; O'Donnell, Owen; Koopmanschap, Marc; van Doorslaer, Eddy

2013-01-01

Explanations of growth in health expenditures have restricted attention to the mean. We explain change throughout the distribution of expenditures, providing insight into how expenditure growth and its explanation differ along the distribution. We analyse Dutch data on actual health expenditures linked to hospital discharge and mortality registers. Full distribution decomposition delivers findings that would be overlooked by examination of changes in the mean alone. The growth rate of hospital expenditures is greatest at the middle of the distribution and is driven mainly by changes in the distributions of determinants. Pharmaceutical expenditures increase most rapidly at the top of the distribution and are mainly attributable to structural changes, including technological progress, making treatment of the highest cost cases even more expensive. Changes in hospital practice styles make the largest contribution of all determinants to increased spending not only on hospital care but also on pharmaceuticals, suggesting important spill over effects. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prognostic factors for medulloblastoma

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jenkin, Derek; Al Shabanah, Mohamed; Al Shail, Essam; Gray, Alan; Hassounah, Maher; Khafaga, Yasser; Kofide, Amani; Mustafa, Mahmoud; Schultz, Henrik

2000-01-01

Purpose: To evaluate prognostic factors for medulloblastoma. Methods and Materials: One hundred and seventy-three consecutive patients with medulloblastoma, treated at King Faisal Specialist Hospital (KFSH) from 1988-1997, were reviewed. Eighty-four percent were children less than 15 years old. From 1988-1994, treatment was at the discretion of the investigator. From 1994-1998, patients entered a single-arm best practice protocol in which, in staged patients, the surgical intent was total resection, standard radiation treatment was defined, and adjuvant chemotherapy was given to a 'high-risk' subset. Results: For 150 patients who completed surgical and radiation treatment, the 5-year survival rate was 58%, compared with 0% for 16 patients who were unable to start or complete radiation treatment. For staged patients, the 5-year survival was M0 + M1, 78% and M2 + M3, 21% (p 14 years and gross cystic/necrotic features in the primary tumor. The size of the primary tumor, the degree of hydrocephalus at diagnosis, the presence of residual tumor in the post-operative CT/MRI, and the functional status of the patient prior to radiation treatment were not significant factors. Conclusions: Stage M0 + M1 was the most powerful favorable prognostic factor. In Saudi Arabia more patients present with advanced disseminated disease, 41% M2 + M3, than in the West, and this impacts adversely on overall survival. Total resection and standard radiation treatment were not sensitive prognostic factors in a treatment environment in which 78% of patients underwent at least 90% tumor resection and 60% received standard radiation treatment. In order to improve the proportion of patients able to complete radiation treatment, consideration should be given to limiting resection when the attainment of total resection is likely to be morbid, and to delaying rather than omitting radiation treatment in the patient severely compromised postoperatively

Prognostic stratification of ulcerated melanoma

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bønnelykke-Behrndtz, Marie L; Schmidt, Henrik; Christensen, Ib J

2014-01-01

OBJECTIVES: For patients with melanoma, ulceration is an important prognostic marker and interestingly also a predictive marker for the response of adjuvant interferon. A consensual definition and accurate assessment of ulceration are therefore crucial for proper staging and clinical management. We...

Technical Needs for Prototypic Prognostic Technique Demonstration for Advanced Small Modular Reactor Passive Components

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Meyer, Ryan M.; Coble, Jamie B.; Hirt, Evelyn H.; Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Mitchell, Mark R.; Wootan, David W.; Berglin, Eric J.; Bond, Leonard J.; Henager, Charles H.

2013-05-17

This report identifies a number of requirements for prognostics health management of passive systems in AdvSMRs, documents technical gaps in establishing a prototypical prognostic methodology for this purpose, and describes a preliminary research plan for addressing these technical gaps. AdvSMRs span multiple concepts; therefore a technology- and design-neutral approach is taken, with the focus being on characteristics that are likely to be common to all or several AdvSMR concepts. An evaluation of available literature is used to identify proposed concepts for AdvSMRs along with likely operational characteristics. Available operating experience of advanced reactors is used in identifying passive components that may be subject to degradation, materials likely to be used for these components, and potential modes of degradation of these components. This information helps in assessing measurement needs for PHM systems, as well as defining functional requirements of PHM systems. An assessment of current state-of-the-art approaches to measurements, sensors and instrumentation, diagnostics and prognostics is also documented. This state-of-the-art evaluation, combined with the requirements, may be used to identify technical gaps and research needs in the development, evaluation, and deployment of PHM systems for AdvSMRs. A preliminary research plan to address high-priority research needs for the deployment of PHM systems to AdvSMRs is described, with the objective being the demonstration of prototypic prognostics technology for passive components in AdvSMRs. Greater efficiency in achieving this objective can be gained through judicious selection of materials and degradation modes that are relevant to proposed AdvSMR concepts, and for which significant knowledge already exists. These selections were made based on multiple constraints including the analysis performed in this document, ready access to laboratory-scale facilities for materials testing and measurement, and

Treatment results and prognostic indicators in thymic epithelial tumors: a clinicopathological analysis of 45 patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Ansari, Mansour; Dehsara, Farzin; Mohammadianpanah, Mohammad; Mosalaei, Ahmad; Omidvari, Shapour; Ahmadloo, Niloofar

2014-07-01

Thymomas are rare epithelial tumors arising from thymus gland. This study aims at investigating the clinical presentation, prognostic factors and treatment outcome of forty five patients with thymoma and thymic carcinoma. Forty-five patients being histologically diagnosed with thymoma or thymic carcinoma that were treated and followed-up at a tertiary academic hospital during January 1987 and December 2008 were selected for the present study. Twelve patients were solely treated with surgery, 14 with surgery followed by adjuvant radiotherapy, 12 with sequential combined treatment of surgery, radiotherapy and/or chemotherapy and 7 with non-surgical approach including radiotherapy and/or chemotherapy.  Tumors were classified based on the new World Health Organization (WHO) histological classification. There were 18 women and 27 men with a median age of 43 years. Twelve patients (26.7%) had stage I, 7 (17.8%) had stage II, 23 (51%) had stage III and 2 (4.5%) had stage IV disease. Tumors types were categorized as type A (n=4), type AB (n=10), type B1 (n=9), type B2 (n=10), type B3 (n=5) and type C (n=7). In univariate analysis for overall survival, disease stage (P=0.001), tumor size (P=0.017) and the extent of surgical resection (P<0.001) were prognostic factors. Regarding the multivariate analysis, only the extent of the surgical resection (P<0.001) was the independent prognostic factor and non-surgical treatment had a negative influence on the survival. The 5-year and 10-year overall survival rates were 70.8% and 62.9%, respectively. Complete surgical resection is the most important prognostic factor in patients with thymic epithelial tumors.

Model-based Prognostics under Limited Sensing

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Prognostics is crucial to providing reliable condition-based maintenance decisions. To obtain accurate predictions of component life, a variety of sensors are often...

Sensitivity of adaptive enrichment trial designs to accrual rates, time to outcome measurement, and prognostic variables

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tianchen Qian

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Adaptive enrichment designs involve rules for restricting enrollment to a subset of the population during the course of an ongoing trial. This can be used to target those who benefit from the experimental treatment. Trial characteristics such as the accrual rate and the prognostic value of baseline variables are typically unknown when a trial is being planned; these values are typically assumed based on information available before the trial starts. Because of the added complexity in adaptive enrichment designs compared to standard designs, it may be of special concern how sensitive the trial performance is to deviations from assumptions. Through simulation studies, we evaluate the sensitivity of Type I error, power, expected sample size, and trial duration to different design characteristics. Our simulation distributions mimic features of data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative cohort study, and involve two subpopulations based on a genetic marker. We investigate the impact of the following design characteristics: the accrual rate, the time from enrollment to measurement of a short-term outcome and the primary outcome, and the prognostic value of baseline variables and short-term outcomes. To leverage prognostic information in baseline variables and short-term outcomes, we use a semiparametric, locally efficient estimator, and investigate its strengths and limitations compared to standard estimators. We apply information-based monitoring, and evaluate how accurately information can be estimated in an ongoing trial.

Follicular lymphoma international prognostic index

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Solal-Céligny, Philippe; Roy, Pascal; Colombat, Philippe; White, Josephine; Armitage, Jim O.; Arranz-Saez, Reyes; Au, Wing Y.; Bellei, Monica; Brice, Pauline; Caballero, Dolores; Coiffier, Bertrand; Conde-Garcia, Eulogio; Doyen, Chantal; Federico, Massimo; Fisher, Richard I.; Garcia-Conde, Javier F.; Guglielmi, Cesare; Hagenbeek, Anton; Haïoun, Corinne; LeBlanc, Michael; Lister, Andrew T.; Lopez-Guillermo, Armando; McLaughlin, Peter; Milpied, Noël; Morel, Pierre; Mounier, Nicolas; Proctor, Stephen J.; Rohatiner, Ama; Smith, Paul; Soubeyran, Pierre; Tilly, Hervé; Vitolo, Umberto; Zinzani, Pier-Luigi; Zucca, Emanuele; Montserrat, Emili

2004-01-01

The prognosis of follicular lymphomas (FL) is heterogeneous and numerous treatments may be proposed. A validated prognostic index (PI) would help in evaluating and choosing these treatments. Characteristics at diagnosis were collected from 4167 patients with FL diagnosed between 1985 and 1992.

New prognostic model for extranodal natural killer/T cell lymphoma, nasal type.

Science.gov (United States)

Cai, Qingqing; Luo, Xiaolin; Zhang, Guanrong; Huang, Huiqiang; Huang, Hui; Lin, Tongyu; Jiang, Wenqi; Xia, Zhongjun; Young, Ken H

2014-09-01

Extranodal natural killer/T cell lymphoma, nasal type (ENKTL) is an aggressive disease with a poor prognosis, requiring risk stratification in affected patients. We designed a new prognostic model specifically for ENKTL to identify high-risk patients who need more aggressive therapy. We retrospectively reviewed 158 patients who were newly diagnosed with ENKTL. The estimated 5-year overall survival rate was 39.4 %. Independent prognostic factors included total protein (TP) 100 mg/dL, and Korean Prognostic Index (KPI) score ≥2. We constructed a new prognostic model by combining these prognostic factors: group 1 (64 cases (41.0 %)), no adverse factors; group 2 (58 cases (37.2 %)), one adverse factor; and group 3 (34 cases (21.8 %)), two or three adverse factors. The 5-year overall survival (OS) rates of these groups were 66.7, 23.0, and 5.9 %, respectively (p KPI model alone (p KPI model alone.

Some interesting prognostic factors related to cutaneous malignant melanoma

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Joan Figueroa, AlejandroYuri; Diaz Anaya, Amnia; Montero Leon, Jorge Felipe; Jimenez Mendes, Lourdes

2010-01-01

INTRODUCTION: The aim of present research was to determine the independent prognostic value and the 3 and 5 years survival of more significant clinicopathological prognostic factors and in each stage, according to pathological staging system of tumor-nodule-metastasis (TNM) in patients with cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM). METHODS: A longitudinal, descriptive and retrospective study was conducted applying the Cox proportional risk form and the Kaplan-Meier method, aimed to search of different risk variables in patients with CMM. We studied 157 patients with CMM, seen during 8 years (1993 to 2001), diagnosed and treated in National Institute of Oncology and Radiobiology of La Habana. RESULTS: The more powerful prognostic variables related to localized disease (stage I and II) were the Breslow density (P: 0,000), the mitosis rate (P: 0,004), and the Clark level (P: 0,04); among the variables related to the regional disease (stage III) the number of lymphatic ganglia involved was the more weighthy (P:0,000) and the more important in Stage IV was the distant visceral metastasis (P:0,003). Survival was decreasing according to the advance of the pathological stage of disease. CONCLUSIONS: The more involved independent prognostic factors were the Breslow rate, the number of involved regional lymphatic nodules and the distant visceral metastasis, which is endorsed by a world consensus. However, variables as age, sex, lesion site, ulceration, host-tumor inflammatory response, histological subtype, satellitosis and transient metastasis, considered as independent prognostic indicators in big casuistries, had not statistical significance in present paper. (author)

Molecular Pathology: Predictive, Prognostic, and Diagnostic Markers in Uterine Tumors.

Science.gov (United States)

Ritterhouse, Lauren L; Howitt, Brooke E

2016-09-01

This article focuses on the diagnostic, prognostic, and predictive molecular biomarkers in uterine malignancies, in the context of morphologic diagnoses. The histologic classification of endometrial carcinomas is reviewed first, followed by the description and molecular classification of endometrial epithelial malignancies in the context of histologic classification. Taken together, the molecular and histologic classifications help clinicians to approach troublesome areas encountered in clinical practice and evaluate the utility of molecular alterations in the diagnosis and subclassification of endometrial carcinomas. Putative prognostic markers are reviewed. The use of molecular alterations and surrogate immunohistochemistry as prognostic and predictive markers is also discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Prognostic factors of early breast cancer].

Science.gov (United States)

Almagro, Elena; González, Cynthia S; Espinosa, Enrique

2016-02-19

Decision about the administration of adjuvant therapy for early breast cancer depends on the evaluation of prognostic factors. Lymph node status, tumor size and grade of differentiation are classical variables in this regard, and can be complemented by hormonal receptor status and HER2 expression. These factors can be combined into prognostic indexes to better estimate the risk of relapse or death. Other factors are less important. Gene profiles have emerged in recent years to identify low-risk patients who can forgo adjuvant chemotherapy. A number of profiles are available and can be used in selected cases. In the future, gene profiling will be used to select patients for treatment with new targeted therapies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Towards A Model-based Prognostics Methodology for Electrolytic Capacitors: A Case Study Based on Electrical Overstress Accelerated Aging

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gautam Biswas

2012-12-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a model-driven methodology for predict- ing the remaining useful life of electrolytic capacitors. This methodology adopts a Kalman filter approach in conjunction with an empirical state-based degradation model to predict the degradation of capacitor parameters through the life of the capacitor. Electrolytic capacitors are important components of systems that range from power supplies on critical avion- ics equipment to power drivers for electro-mechanical actuators. These devices are known for their comparatively low reliability and given their critical role in the system, they are good candidates for component level prognostics and health management. Prognostics provides a way to assess remain- ing useful life of a capacitor based on its current state of health and its anticipated future usage and operational conditions. This paper proposes and empirical degradation model and discusses experimental results for an accelerated aging test performed on a set of identical capacitors subjected to electrical stress. The data forms the basis for developing the Kalman-filter based remaining life prediction algorithm.

Development and validation of logistic prognostic models by predefined SAS-macros

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ziegler, Christoph

2006-02-01

Full Text Available In medical decision making about therapies or diagnostic procedures in the treatment of patients the prognoses of the course or of the magnitude of diseases plays a relevant role. Beside of the subjective attitude of the clinician mathematical models can help in providing such prognoses. Such models are mostly multivariate regression models. In the case of a dichotomous outcome the logistic model will be applied as the standard model. In this paper we will describe SAS-macros for the development of such a model, for examination of the prognostic performance, and for model validation. The rational for this developmental approach of a prognostic modelling and the description of the macros can only given briefly in this paper. Much more details are given in. These 14 SAS-macros are a tool for setting up the whole process of deriving a prognostic model. Especially the possibility of validating the model by a standardized software tool gives an opportunity, which is not used in general in published prognostic models. Therefore, this can help to develop new models with good prognostic performance for use in medical applications.

Prognostic significance of perioperative nutritional parameters in patients with gastric cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Oh, Sung Eun; Choi, Min-Gew; Seo, Jeong-Meen; An, Ji Yeong; Lee, Jun Ho; Sohn, Tae Sung; Bae, Jae Moon; Kim, Sung

2018-02-20

It has been suggested that nutritional status is related to the survival outcomes of cancer patients. The purpose of the current research is to evaluate the importance of the prognosis of various nutritional parameters during the perioperative period in patients with gastric cancer. This study enrolled patients with gastric cancer who underwent D2 gastrectomy at the Department of Surgery, Samsung Medical Center, in 2008. The prognostic significance of nutritional parameters was analyzed, along with other clinical and pathological variables, preoperatively and postoperatively at 3, 6, and 12 months. The total number of patients was 1415. The mean values of nutritional parameters, weight, body mass index (BMI), hemoglobin, total cholesterol, and total lymphocyte count (TLC) decreased significantly over time after surgery. On the contrary, albumin and prognostic nutritional index (PNI) score increased significantly during the postoperative follow-up period. Preoperatively, low BMI (nutritional prognostic indicators. Various perioperative nutritional parameters were confirmed as independent prognostic factors in patients with gastric cancer. Our results imply prognostic benefit from careful nutritional support for patients with poor nutritional parameters. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.

MicroRNA dysregulation as a prognostic biomarker in colorectal cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dong, Yujuan; Yu, Jun; Ng, Simon SM

2014-01-01

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is one of the most potentially curable cancers, yet it remains the fourth most common overall cause of cancer death worldwide. The identification of robust molecular prognostic biomarkers can refine the conventional tumor–node–metastasis staging system, avoid understaging of tumor, and help pinpoint patients with early-stage CRC who may benefit from aggressive treatments. Recently, epigenetic studies have provided new molecular evidence to better categorize the CRC subtypes and predict clinical outcomes. In this review, we summarize recent findings concerning the prognostic potential of microRNAs (miRNAs) in CRC. We first discuss the prognostic value of three tissue miRNAs (miR-21-5p, miR-29-3p, miR-148-3p) that have been examined in multiple studies. We also summarize the dysregulation of miRNA processing machinery DICER in CRC and its association with risk for mortality. We also reviewe the potential application of miRNA-associated single-nucleotide polymorphisms as prognostic biomarkers for CRC, especially the miRNA-associated polymorphism in the KRAS gene. Last but not least, we discuss the microsatellite instability-related miRNA candidates. Among all these candidates, miR-21-5p is the most promising prognostic marker, yet further prospective validation studies are required before it can go into clinical usage

Prognostic factors and scoring system for survival in colonic perforation.

Science.gov (United States)

Komatsu, Shuhei; Shimomatsuya, Takumi; Nakajima, Masayuki; Amaya, Hirokazu; Kobuchi, Taketsune; Shiraishi, Susumu; Konishi, Sayuri; Ono, Susumu; Maruhashi, Kazuhiro

2005-01-01

No ideal and generally accepted prognostic factors and scoring systems exist to determine the prognosis of peritonitis associated with colonic perforation. This study was designed to investigate prognostic factors and evaluate the various scoring systems to allow identification of high-risk patients. Between 1996 and 2003, excluding iatrogenic and trauma cases, 26 consecutive patients underwent emergency operations for colorectal perforation and were selected for this retrospective study. Several clinical factors were analyzed as possible predictive factors, and APACHE II, SOFA, MPI, and MOF scores were calculated. The overall mortality was 26.9%. Compared with the survivors, non-survivors were found more frequently in Hinchey's stage III-IV, a low preoperative marker of pH, base excess (BE), and a low postoperative marker of white blood cell count, PaO2/FiO2 ratio, and renal output (24h). According to the logistic regression model, BE was a significant independent variable. Concerning the prognostic scoring systems, an APACHE II score of 19, a SOFA score of 8, an MPI score of 30, and an MOF score of 7 or more were significantly related to poor prognosis. Preoperative BE and postoperative white blood cell count were reliable prognostic factors and early classification using prognostic scoring systems at specific points in the disease process are useful to improve our understanding of the problems involved.

Prognostic features and markers for testicular cancer management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eddy S Leman

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Testicular neoplasm accounts for about 1% of all cancers in men. Over the last 40 years, the incidence of testicular cancer has increased in northern European male populations for unknown reasons. When diagnosed at early stage, testicular cancer is usually curable with a high survival rate. In the past three decades, successful multidisciplinary approaches for the management of testicular cancer have significantly increased patient survival rates. Utilization of tumor markers and accurate prognostic classification has also contributed to successful therapy. In this article, we highlight the most commonly used tumor markers and several potential "novel" markers for testicular cancer as part of the ongoing effort in biomarker research and discovery. In addition, this article also identifies several key prognostic features that have been demonstrated to play a role in predicting relapse. These features include tumor size, rete testis invasion, lymphovascular invasion, and tumor histology. Together with tumor markers, these prognostic factors should be taken into account for risk-adapted management of testicular cancer.

Prognostic importance of troponin T and creatine kinase after elective angioplasty

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nienhuis, Mark B.; Ottervanger, Jan Paul; Dikkeschei, Bert; Suryapranata, Harry; de Boer, Menko-Jan; Dambrink, Jan-Henk E.; Hoorntje, Jan C. A.; van't Hof, Arnoud W. J.; Gosselink, Marcel; Zijlstra, Felix

2007-01-01

Background: The prognostic importance of elevated cardiac enzymes after elective percutaneous coronary intervention has been debated. Therefore, we performed a prospective observational study to evaluate the prognostic value of postprocedural rise of troponin T and creatine kinase. Methods: Troponin

Prognostic significance of the prognostic nutritional index in esophageal cancer patients undergoing neoadjuvant chemotherapy.

Science.gov (United States)

Nakatani, M; Migita, K; Matsumoto, S; Wakatsuki, K; Ito, M; Nakade, H; Kunishige, T; Kitano, M; Kanehiro, H

2017-08-01

Nutritional status is one of the most important issues faced by cancer patients. Several studies have shown that a low preoperative nutritional status is associated with a worse prognosis in patients with various types of cancer, including esophageal cancer (EC). Recently, neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) and/or radiotherapy have been accepted as the standard treatment for resectable advanced EC. However, NAC has the potential to deteriorate the nutritional status of a patient. This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic significance of the nutritional status for EC patients who underwent NAC. We retrospectively reviewed 66 squamous cell EC patients who underwent NAC consisting of docetaxel, cisplatin, and 5-fluorouracil followed by subtotal esophagectomy at Nara Medical University Hospital between January 2009 and August 2015. To assess the patients' nutritional status, the prognostic nutritional index (PNI) before commencing NAC and prior to the operation was calculated as 10 × serum albumin (g/dl) + 0.005 × total lymphocyte count in the peripheral blood (per mm3). The cutoff value of the PNI was set at 45. A multivariable analysis was performed to identify prognostic factors for overall survival (OS) and relapse-free survival (RFS). The mean pre-NAC and preoperative PNI were 50.2 ± 5.7 and 48.1 ± 4.7, respectively (P = 0.005). The PNI decreased following NAC in 44 (66.7%) patients. Before initiating NAC, 9 (13.6%) patients had a low PNI, and 12 (18.2%) patients had a low PNI prior to the operation. The pre-NAC PNI and preoperative PNI were significantly associated with the OS (P = 0.013 and P = 0.004, respectively) and RFS (P = 0.036 and P = 0.005, respectively) rates. The multivariable analysis identified the preoperative PNI as an independent prognostic factor for poor OS and RFS, although the pre-NAC PNI was not an independent predictor. Our results suggest that the preoperative PNI is a useful marker for predicting the long-term outcomes of EC patients

Prognostic Biomarker Identification Through Integrating the Gene Signatures of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Properties

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jialin Cai

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Many molecular classification and prognostic gene signatures for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC patients have been established based on genome-wide gene expression profiling; however, their generalizability is unclear. Herein, we systematically assessed the prognostic effects of these gene signatures and identified valuable prognostic biomarkers by integrating these gene signatures. With two independent HCC datasets (GSE14520, N = 242 and GSE54236, N = 78, 30 published gene signatures were evaluated, and 11 were significantly associated with the overall survival (OS of postoperative HCC patients in both datasets. The random survival forest models suggested that the gene signatures were superior to clinical characteristics for predicting the prognosis of the patients. Based on the 11 gene signatures, a functional protein-protein interaction (PPI network with 1406 nodes and 10,135 edges was established. With tissue microarrays of HCC patients (N = 60, we determined the prognostic values of the core genes in the network and found that RAD21, CDK1, and HDAC2 expression levels were negatively associated with OS for HCC patients. The multivariate Cox regression analyses suggested that CDK1 was an independent prognostic factor, which was validated in an independent case cohort (N = 78. In cellular models, inhibition of CDK1 by siRNA or a specific inhibitor, RO-3306, reduced cellular proliferation and viability for HCC cells. These results suggest that the prognostic predictive capacities of these gene signatures are reproducible and that CDK1 is a potential prognostic biomarker or therapeutic target for HCC patients.

Thai venous stroke prognostic score: TV-SPSS.

Science.gov (United States)

Poungvarin, Niphon; Prayoonwiwat, Naraporn; Ratanakorn, Disya; Towanabut, Somchai; Tantirittisak, Tassanee; Suwanwela, Nijasri; Phanthumchinda, Kamman; Tiamkoa, Somsak; Chankrachang, Siwaporn; Nidhinandana, Samart; Laptikultham, Somsak; Limsoontarakul, Sansern; Udomphanthuruk, Suthipol

2009-11-01

Prognosis of cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST) has never been studied in Thailand. A simple prognostic score to predict poor prognosis of CVST has also never been reported. The authors are aiming to establish a simple and reliable prognostic score for this condition. The medical records of CVST patients from eight neurological training centers in Thailand who received between April 1993 and September 2005 were reviewed as part of this retrospective study. Clinical features included headache, seizure, stroke risk factors, Glasgow coma scale (GCS), blood pressure on arrival, papilledema, hemiparesis, meningeal irritation sign, location of occluded venous sinuses, hemorrhagic infarction, cerebrospinal fluid opening pressure, treatment options, length of stay, and other complications were analyzed to determine the outcome using modified Rankin scale (mRS). Poor prognosis (defined as mRS of 3-6) was determined on the discharge date. One hundred ninety four patients' records, 127 females (65.5%) and mean age of 36.6 +/- 14.4 years, were analyzed Fifty-one patients (26.3%) were in the poor outcome group (mRS 3-6). Overall mortality was 8.4%. Univariate analysis and then multivariate analysis using SPSS version 11.5 revealed only four statistically significant predictors influencing outcome of CVST They were underlying malignancy, low GCS, presence of hemorrhagic infarction (for poor outcome), and involvement of lateral sinus (for good outcome). Thai venous stroke prognostic score (TV-SPSS) was derived from these four factors using a multiple logistic model. A simple and pragmatic prognostic score for CVST outcome has been developed with high sensitivity (93%), yet low specificity (33%). The next study should focus on the validation of this score in other prospective populations.

PROGNOSTIC FACTORS OF SURVIVAL IN RENAL CANCER

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A. V. Seriogin

2014-08-01

Full Text Available The purpose of the study was to reveal the independent anatomic, histological, and clinical factors of cancer-specific survival in patients with renal-cell carcinoma (RCC. For this, the authors retrospectively analyzed their experience with radical surgical treatments in 73 RCC patients operated on at the Department of Urology and Surgical Andrology, Russian Medical Academy of Postgraduate Education, from January 1, 1999 to December 31, 2004; their outcomes have become known by the present time. There was a statistically significant correlation of cancer-specific survival with its parameters, such as pathological stage of a tumor, its maximum pathological size, differentiation grade, involvement of regional lymph nodes, venous tumor thrombosis, level of thrombocytosis, and degree of the clinical symptoms of the disease. Multivariate analysis of survival in RCC in relation to the prognostic factors could reveal odd ratios for the limit values of significant prognostic factors. The statistically significant prognostic values established in the present study, as well as the molecular factors the implication of which is being now investigated can become in future an effective addition to the TNM staging system to define indications for certain treatments and to predict survival in RCC  

PROGNOSTIC FACTORS OF SURVIVAL IN RENAL CANCER

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. V. Seriogin

2009-01-01

Full Text Available The purpose of the study was to reveal the independent anatomic, histological, and clinical factors of cancer-specific survival in patients with renal-cell carcinoma (RCC. For this, the authors retrospectively analyzed their experience with radical surgical treatments in 73 RCC patients operated on at the Department of Urology and Surgical Andrology, Russian Medical Academy of Postgraduate Education, from January 1, 1999 to December 31, 2004; their outcomes have become known by the present time. There was a statistically significant correlation of cancer-specific survival with its parameters, such as pathological stage of a tumor, its maximum pathological size, differentiation grade, involvement of regional lymph nodes, venous tumor thrombosis, level of thrombocytosis, and degree of the clinical symptoms of the disease. Multivariate analysis of survival in RCC in relation to the prognostic factors could reveal odd ratios for the limit values of significant prognostic factors. The statistically significant prognostic values established in the present study, as well as the molecular factors the implication of which is being now investigated can become in future an effective addition to the TNM staging system to define indications for certain treatments and to predict survival in RCC  

Vertical equity of healthcare in Taiwan: health services were distributed according to need

OpenAIRE

Wang, Shiow-Ing; Yaung, Chih-Liang

2013-01-01

Abstract Introduction To test the hypothesis that the distribution of healthcare services is according to health need can be achieved under a rather open access system. Methods The 2001 National Health Interview Survey of Taiwan and National Health Insurance claims data were linked in the study. Health need was defined by self-perceived health status. We used Concentration index to measure need-related inequality in healthcare utilization and expenditure. Results People with greater health ne...

Prognostic Factors for Refractory Status Epilepticus

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J. Gordon Millichap

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Researchers at the Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN studied the outcome and identified prognostic factors for refractory status epilepticus (RSE in 54 adult patients, median age 52 years [range 18-93].

Prognostic factors in canine appendicular osteosarcoma – a meta-analysis

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

Background Appendicular osteosarcoma is the most common malignant primary canine bone tumor. When treated by amputation or tumor removal alone, median survival times (MST) do not exceed 5 months, with the majority of dogs suffering from metastatic disease. This period can be extended with adequate local intervention and adjuvant chemotherapy, which has become common practice. Several prognostic factors have been reported in many different studies, e.g. age, breed, weight, sex, neuter status, location of tumor, serum alkaline phosphatase (SALP), bone alkaline phosphatase (BALP), infection, percentage of bone length affected, histological grade or histological subtype of tumor. Most of these factors are, however, only reported as confounding factors in larger studies. Insight in truly significant prognostic factors at time of diagnosis may contribute to tailoring adjuvant therapy for individual dogs suffering from osteosarcoma. The objective of this study was to systematically review the prognostic factors that are described for canine appendicular osteosarcoma and validate their scientific importance. Results A literature review was performed on selected studies and eligible data were extracted. Meta-analyses were done for two of the three selected possible prognostic factors (SALP and location), looking at both survival time (ST) and disease free interval (DFI). The third factor (age) was studied in a qualitative manner. Both elevated SALP level and the (proximal) humerus as location of the primary tumor are significant negative prognostic factors for both ST and DFI in dogs with appendicular osteosarcoma. Increasing age was associated with shorter ST and DFI, however, was not statistically significant because information of this factor was available in only a limited number of papers. Conclusions Elevated SALP and proximal humeral location are significant negative prognosticators for canine osteosarcoma. PMID:22587466

Prognostic factors in canine appendicular osteosarcoma – a meta-analysis

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Boerman Ilse

2012-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Appendicular osteosarcoma is the most common malignant primary canine bone tumor. When treated by amputation or tumor removal alone, median survival times (MST do not exceed 5 months, with the majority of dogs suffering from metastatic disease. This period can be extended with adequate local intervention and adjuvant chemotherapy, which has become common practice. Several prognostic factors have been reported in many different studies, e.g. age, breed, weight, sex, neuter status, location of tumor, serum alkaline phosphatase (SALP, bone alkaline phosphatase (BALP, infection, percentage of bone length affected, histological grade or histological subtype of tumor. Most of these factors are, however, only reported as confounding factors in larger studies. Insight in truly significant prognostic factors at time of diagnosis may contribute to tailoring adjuvant therapy for individual dogs suffering from osteosarcoma. The objective of this study was to systematically review the prognostic factors that are described for canine appendicular osteosarcoma and validate their scientific importance. Results A literature review was performed on selected studies and eligible data were extracted. Meta-analyses were done for two of the three selected possible prognostic factors (SALP and location, looking at both survival time (ST and disease free interval (DFI. The third factor (age was studied in a qualitative manner. Both elevated SALP level and the (proximal humerus as location of the primary tumor are significant negative prognostic factors for both ST and DFI in dogs with appendicular osteosarcoma. Increasing age was associated with shorter ST and DFI, however, was not statistically significant because information of this factor was available in only a limited number of papers. Conclusions Elevated SALP and proximal humeral location are significant negative prognosticators for canine osteosarcoma.

Novel immunological and nutritional-based prognostic index for gastric cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Kai-Yu; Xu, Jian-Bo; Chen, Shu-Ling; Yuan, Yu-Jie; Wu, Hui; Peng, Jian-Jun; Chen, Chuang-Qi; Guo, Pi; Hao, Yuan-Tao; He, Yu-Long

2015-05-21

To assess the prognostic significance of immunological and nutritional-based indices, including the prognostic nutritional index (PNI), neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and platelet-lymphocyte ratio in gastric cancer. We retrospectively reviewed 632 gastric cancer patients who underwent gastrectomy between 1998 and 2008. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve were calculated to compare the predictive ability of the indices, together with estimating the sensitivity, specificity and agreement rate. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify risk factors for overall survival (OS). Propensity score analysis was performed to adjust variables to control for selection bias. Each index could predict OS in gastric cancer patients in univariate analysis, but only PNI had independent prognostic significance in multivariate analysis before and after adjustment with propensity scoring (hazard ratio, 1.668; 95% confidence interval: 1.368-2.035). In subgroup analysis, a low PNI predicted a significantly shorter OS in patients with stage II-III disease (P = 0.019, P gastric cancer. Canton score can be a novel preoperative prognostic index in gastric cancer.

The prognostic ability of the STarT Back Tool was affected by episode duration

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Morsø, Lars; Kongsted, Alice; Hestbæk, Lise

2016-01-01

were not systematically affected by SBT risk subgroup (non-stratified care). Using generalised estimating equations, we investigated statistical interactions between SBT risk subgroups and potentially influential factors on the prognostic ability of the SBT subgroups, when Roland Morris Disability...... Questionnaire scores were the outcome. RESULTS: SBT risk subgroup, age, care setting, and episode duration were all independent prognostic factors. The only investigated factor that modified the prognostic ability of the SBT subgroups was episode duration. CONCLUSIONS: These results indicate that the prognostic...

Using the β-binomial distribution to characterize forest health

Science.gov (United States)

S.J. Zarnoch; R.L. Anderson; R.M. Sheffield

1995-01-01

The β-binomial distribution is suggested as a model for describing and analyzing the dichotomous data obtained from programs monitoring the health of forests in the United States. Maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters is given as well as asymptotic likelihood ratio tests. The procedure is illustrated with data on dogwood anthracnose infection (caused...

Reirradiation in progressive high-grade gliomas: outcome, role of concurrent chemotherapy, prognostic factors and validation of a new prognostic score with an independent patient cohort

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scholtyssek, Felix; Kortmann, Rolf-Dieter; Müller, Klaus; Zwiener, Isabella; Schlamann, Annika; Seidel, Clemens; Meixensberger, Jürgen; Bauer, Manfred; Hoffmann, Karl-Titus; Combs, Stephanie E; Bueren, André O von

2013-01-01

First, to evaluate outcome, the benefit of concurrent chemotherapy and prognostic factors in a cohort of sixty-four high-grade glioma patients who underwent a second course of radiation therapy at progression. Second, to validate a new prognostic score for overall survival after reirradiation of progressive gliomas with an independent patient cohort. All patients underwent fractionated reirradiation with a median physical dose of 36 Gy. Median planned target volume was 110.4 ml. Thirty-six patients received concurrent chemotherapy consisting in 24/36 cases (67%) of carboplatin and etoposide and in 12/36 cases (33%) of temozolomide. We used the Kaplan Meier method, log rank test and proportional hazards regression analysis for statistical assessment. Median overall survival from the start of reirradiation was 7.7 ± 0.7 months. Overall survival rates at 6 and 12 months were 60 ± 6% and 24 ± 6%, respectively. Despite relatively large target volumes we did not observe any major acute toxicity. Concurrent chemotherapy did not appear to improve outcome. In contrast, female gender, young age, WHO grade III histology, favorable Karnofsky performance score and complete resection of the tumor prior to reirradiation were identified as positive prognostic factors for overall survival. We finally validated a recent suggestion for a prognostic score with our independent but small patient cohort. Our preliminary findings suggest that its ability to discriminate between different prognostic groups is limited. Outcome of our patients was comparable to previous studies. Even in case of large target volumes reirradiation seems to be feasible without observing major toxicity. The benefit of concurrent chemotherapy is still elusive. A reassessment of the prognostic score, tested in this study, using a larger patient cohort is needed

Cross-national validation of prognostic models predicting sickness absence and the added value of work environment variables.

Science.gov (United States)

Roelen, Corné A M; Stapelfeldt, Christina M; Heymans, Martijn W; van Rhenen, Willem; Labriola, Merete; Nielsen, Claus V; Bültmann, Ute; Jensen, Chris

2015-06-01

To validate Dutch prognostic models including age, self-rated health and prior sickness absence (SA) for ability to predict high SA in Danish eldercare. The added value of work environment variables to the models' risk discrimination was also investigated. 2,562 municipal eldercare workers (95% women) participated in the Working in Eldercare Survey. Predictor variables were measured by questionnaire at baseline in 2005. Prognostic models were validated for predictions of high (≥30) SA days and high (≥3) SA episodes retrieved from employer records during 1-year follow-up. The accuracy of predictions was assessed by calibration graphs and the ability of the models to discriminate between high- and low-risk workers was investigated by ROC-analysis. The added value of work environment variables was measured with Integrated Discrimination Improvement (IDI). 1,930 workers had complete data for analysis. The models underestimated the risk of high SA in eldercare workers and the SA episodes model had to be re-calibrated to the Danish data. Discrimination was practically useful for the re-calibrated SA episodes model, but not the SA days model. Physical workload improved the SA days model (IDI = 0.40; 95% CI 0.19-0.60) and psychosocial work factors, particularly the quality of leadership (IDI = 0.70; 95% CI 053-0.86) improved the SA episodes model. The prognostic model predicting high SA days showed poor performance even after physical workload was added. The prognostic model predicting high SA episodes could be used to identify high-risk workers, especially when psychosocial work factors are added as predictor variables.

A Comparison of Systemic Inflammation-Based Prognostic Scores in Patients on Regular Hemodialysis

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Akihiko Kato

2013-10-01

Full Text Available Background/Aims: Systemic inflammation-based prognostic scores have prognostic power in patients with cancer, independently of tumor stage and site. Although inflammatory status is associated with mortality in hemodialysis (HD patients, it remains to be determined as to whether these composite scores are useful in predicting clinical outcomes. Methods: We calculated the 6 prognostic scores [Glasgow prognostic score (GPS, modified GPS (mGPS, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR, platelet lymphocyte ratio (PLR, prognostic index (PI and prognostic nutritional index (PNI], which have been established as a useful scoring system in cancer patients. We enrolled 339 patients on regular HD (age: 64 ± 13 years; time on HD: 129 ± 114 months; males/females = 253/85 and followed them for 42 months. The area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve was used to determine which scoring system was more predictive of mortality. Results: Elevated GPS, mGPS, NLR, PLR, PI and PNI were all associated with total mortality, independent of covariates. If GPS was raised, mGPS, NLR, PLR and PI were also predictive of all-cause mortality and/or hospitalization. GPS and PNI were associated with poor nutritional status. Using overall mortality as an endpoint, the area under the curve (AUC was significant for a GPS of 0.701 (95% CI: 0.637-0.765; p Conclusion: GPS, based on serum albumin and highly sensitive C-reactive protein, has the most prognostic power for mortality prediction among the prognostic scores in HD patients. However, as the determination of serum albumin reflects mortality similarly to GPS, other composite combinations are needed to provide additional clinical utility beyond that of albumin alone in HD patients.

Treatment Results and Prognostic Indicators in Thymic Epithelial Tumors: A Clinicopathological Analysis of 45 Patients

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Mansour Ansari

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Background: Thymomas are rare epithelial tumors arising from thymus gland. This study aims at investigating the clinical presentation, prognostic factors and treatment outcome of forty five patients with thymoma and thymic carcinoma. Methods: Forty-five patients being histologically diagnosed with thymoma or thymic carcinoma that were treated and followed-up at a tertiary academic hospital during January 1987 and December 2008 were selected for the present study. Twelve patients were solely treated with surgery, 14 with surgery followed by adjuvant radiotherapy, 12 with sequential combined treatment of surgery, radiotherapy and/or chemotherapy and 7 with non-surgical approach including radiotherapy and/or chemotherapy. Tumors were classified based on the new World Health Organization (WHO histological classification. Results: There were 18 women and 27 men with a median age of 43 years. Twelve patients (26.7% had stage I, 7 (17.8% had stage II, 23 (51% had stage III and 2 (4.5% had stage IV disease. Tumors types were categorized as type A (n=4, type AB (n=10, type B1 (n=9, type B2 (n=10, type B3 (n=5 and type C (n=7. In univariate analysis for overall survival, disease stage (P=0.001, tumor size (P=0.017 and the extent of surgical resection (P<0.001 were prognostic factors. Regarding the multivariate analysis, only the extent of the surgical resection (P<0.001 was the independent prognostic factor and non-surgical treatment had a negative influence on the survival. The 5-year and 10-year overall survival rates were 70.8% and 62.9%, respectively. Conclusion: Complete surgical resection is the most important prognostic factor in patients with thymic epithelial tumors.

Prognostic factors in sensory recovery after digital nerve repair

OpenAIRE

Bulut, Tugrul; Akgun, Ulas; Citlak, Atilla; Aslan, Cihan; Sener, Ufuk; Sener, Muhittin

2018-01-01

Objective: The prognostic factors that affect sensory nerve recovery after digital nerve repair are variable because of nonhomogeneous data, subjective tests, and different assessment/scoring methods. The aim of this study was to evaluate the success of sensory nerve recovery after digital nerve repair and to investigate the prognostic factors in sensorial healing.Methods: Ninety-six digital nerve repairs of 63 patients were retrospectively evaluated. All nerves were repaired with end-to-end ...

Prognostics Approach for Power MOSFET Under Thermal-Stress

Science.gov (United States)

Galvan, Jose Ramon Celaya; Saxena, Abhinav; Kulkarni, Chetan S.; Saha, Sankalita; Goebel, Kai

2012-01-01

The prognostic technique for a power MOSFET presented in this paper is based on accelerated aging of MOSFET IRF520Npbf in a TO-220 package. The methodology utilizes thermal and power cycling to accelerate the life of the devices. The major failure mechanism for the stress conditions is dieattachment degradation, typical for discrete devices with leadfree solder die attachment. It has been determined that dieattach degradation results in an increase in ON-state resistance due to its dependence on junction temperature. Increasing resistance, thus, can be used as a precursor of failure for the die-attach failure mechanism under thermal stress. A feature based on normalized ON-resistance is computed from in-situ measurements of the electro-thermal response. An Extended Kalman filter is used as a model-based prognostics techniques based on the Bayesian tracking framework. The proposed prognostics technique reports on preliminary work that serves as a case study on the prediction of remaining life of power MOSFETs and builds upon the work presented in [1]. The algorithm considered in this study had been used as prognostics algorithm in different applications and is regarded as suitable candidate for component level prognostics. This work attempts to further the validation of such algorithm by presenting it with real degradation data including measurements from real sensors, which include all the complications (noise, bias, etc.) that are regularly not captured on simulated degradation data. The algorithm is developed and tested on the accelerated aging test timescale. In real world operation, the timescale of the degradation process and therefore the RUL predictions will be considerable larger. It is hypothesized that even though the timescale will be larger, it remains constant through the degradation process and the algorithm and model would still apply under the slower degradation process. By using accelerated aging data with actual device measurements and real

Active smoking and COPD phenotype: distribution and impact on prognostic factors

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Riesco JA

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Juan Antonio Riesco,1,2 Bernardino Alcázar,3 Juan Antonio Trigueros,4 Anna Campuzano,5 Joselín Pérez,5 José Luis Lorenzo5 1Pulmonology Department, Hospital San Pedro de Alcántara, 2Centro de Investigación en Red de Enfermedades Respiratorias (CIBERES, Cáceres, 3Pulmonology Department, Hospital La Loja, Granada, 4Centro de Salud de Menasalvas, Toledo, 5Grupo Ferrer Internacional, Barcelona, Spain Purpose: Smoking can affect both the phenotypic expression of COPD and factors such as disease severity, quality of life, and comorbidities. Our objective was to evaluate if the impact of active smoking on these factors varies according to the disease phenotype. Patients and methods: This was a Spanish, observational, cross-sectional, multicenter study of patients with a diagnosis of COPD. Smoking rates were described among four different phenotypes (non-exacerbators, asthma-COPD overlap syndrome [ACOS], exacerbators with emphysema, and exacerbators with chronic bronchitis, and correlated with disease severity (body mass index, obstruction, dyspnea and exacerbations [BODEx] index and dyspnea grade, quality of life according to the COPD assessment test (CAT, and presence of comorbidities, according to phenotypic expression. Results: In total, 1,610 patients were recruited, of whom 46.70% were classified as non-exacerbators, 14.53% as ACOS, 16.37% as exacerbators with emphysema, and 22.40% as exacerbators with chronic bronchitis. Smokers were predominant in the latter 2 groups (58.91% and 57.67%, respectively, P=0.03. Active smoking was significantly associated with better quality of life and a higher dyspnea grade, although differences were observed depending on clinical phenotype. Conclusion: Active smoking is more common among exacerbator phenotypes and appears to affect quality of life and dyspnea grade differently, depending on the clinical expression of the disease. Keywords: COPD, phenotype, smoking, prognostic factors, quality of life 

Clinical implications of six inflammatory biomarkers as prognostic indicators in Ewing sarcoma

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Li YJ

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Yong-Jiang Li, Xi Yang, Wen-Biao Zhang, Cheng Yi, Feng Wang, Ping Li Department of Oncology, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, People’s Republic of China Abstract: Cancer-related systemic inflammation responses have been correlated with cancer development and progression. The prognostic significance of several inflammatory indicators, including neutrophil–lymphocyte ratio (NLR, platelet–lymphocyte ratio (PLR, Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS, C-reactive protein to albumin ratio (CRP/Alb ratio, lymphocyte–monocyte ratio (LMR, and neutrophil–platelet score (NPS, were found to be correlated with prognosis in several cancers. However, the prognostic role of these inflammatory biomarkers in Ewing sarcoma has not been evaluated. This study enrolled 122 Ewing patients. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC analysis was generated to determine optimal cutoff values; areas under the curves (AUCs were assessed to show the discriminatory ability of the biomarkers; Kaplan–Meier analysis was conducted to plot the survival curves; and Cox multivariate survival analysis was performed to identify independent prognostic factors. The optimal cutoff values of CRP/Alb ratio, NLR, PLR, and LMR were 0.225, 2.38, 131, and 4.41, respectively. CRP/Alb ratio had a significantly larger AUC than NLR, PLR, LMR, and NPS. Higher levels of CRP/Alb ratio (hazard ratio [HR] 2.41, P=0.005, GPS (HR 2.27, P=0.006, NLR (HR 2.07, P=0.013, and PLR (HR 1.85, P=0.032 were significantly correlated with poor prognosis. As the biomarkers had internal correlations, only the CRP/Alb ratio was involved in the multivariate Cox analysis and remained an independent prognostic indicator. The study demonstrated that CRP/Alb ratio, GPS, and NLR were effective prognostic indicators for patients with Ewing sarcoma, and the CRP/Alb ratio was the most robust prognostic indicator with a discriminatory ability superior to that of the other indicators; however, PLR, LMR, and

Prognostic models for predicting posttraumatic seizures during acute hospitalization, and at 1 and 2 years following traumatic brain injury.

Science.gov (United States)

Ritter, Anne C; Wagner, Amy K; Szaflarski, Jerzy P; Brooks, Maria M; Zafonte, Ross D; Pugh, Mary Jo V; Fabio, Anthony; Hammond, Flora M; Dreer, Laura E; Bushnik, Tamara; Walker, William C; Brown, Allen W; Johnson-Greene, Doug; Shea, Timothy; Krellman, Jason W; Rosenthal, Joseph A

2016-09-01

Posttraumatic seizures (PTS) are well-recognized acute and chronic complications of traumatic brain injury (TBI). Risk factors have been identified, but considerable variability in who develops PTS remains. Existing PTS prognostic models are not widely adopted for clinical use and do not reflect current trends in injury, diagnosis, or care. We aimed to develop and internally validate preliminary prognostic regression models to predict PTS during acute care hospitalization, and at year 1 and year 2 postinjury. Prognostic models predicting PTS during acute care hospitalization and year 1 and year 2 post-injury were developed using a recent (2011-2014) cohort from the TBI Model Systems National Database. Potential PTS predictors were selected based on previous literature and biologic plausibility. Bivariable logistic regression identified variables with a p-value models. Multivariable logistic regression modeling with backward-stepwise elimination was used to determine reduced prognostic models and to internally validate using 1,000 bootstrap samples. Fit statistics were calculated, correcting for overfitting (optimism). The prognostic models identified sex, craniotomy, contusion load, and pre-injury limitation in learning/remembering/concentrating as significant PTS predictors during acute hospitalization. Significant predictors of PTS at year 1 were subdural hematoma (SDH), contusion load, craniotomy, craniectomy, seizure during acute hospitalization, duration of posttraumatic amnesia, preinjury mental health treatment/psychiatric hospitalization, and preinjury incarceration. Year 2 significant predictors were similar to those of year 1: SDH, intraparenchymal fragment, craniotomy, craniectomy, seizure during acute hospitalization, and preinjury incarceration. Corrected concordance (C) statistics were 0.599, 0.747, and 0.716 for acute hospitalization, year 1, and year 2 models, respectively. The prognostic model for PTS during acute hospitalization did not

Prognostic significance of peripheral monocyte count in patients with extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huang, Jia-Jia; Li, Zhi-Ming; Li, Ya-Jun; Xia, Yi; Wang, Yu; Wei, Wen-Xiao; Zhu, Ying-Jie; Lin, Tong-Yu; Huang, Hui-Qiang; Jiang, Wen-Qi

2013-01-01

Extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma (ENKL) has heterogeneous clinical manifestations and prognosis. This study aims to evaluate the prognostic impact of absolute monocyte count (AMC) in ENKL, and provide some immunologically relevant information for better risk stratification in patients with ENKL. Retrospective data from 163 patients newly diagnosed with ENKL were analyzed. The absolute monocyte count (AMC) at diagnosis was analyzed as continuous and dichotomized variables. Independent prognostic factors of survival were determined by Cox regression analysis. The AMC at diagnosis were related to overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) in patients with ENKL. Multivariate analysis identified AMC as independent prognostic factors of survival, independent of International Prognostic Index (IPI) and Korean prognostic index (KPI). The prognostic index incorporating AMC and absolute lymphocyte count (ALC), another surrogate factor of immune status, could be used to stratify all 163 patients with ENKL into different prognostic groups. For patients who received chemotherapy followed by radiotherapy (102 cases), the three AMC/ALC index categories identified patients with significantly different survivals. When superimposed on IPI or KPI categories, the AMC/ALC index was better able to identify high-risk patients in the low-risk IPI or KPI category. The baseline peripheral monocyte count is shown to be an effective prognostic indicator of survival in ENKL patients. The prognostic index related to tumor microenvironment might be helpful to identify high-risk patients with ENKL

Prognostic significance of peripheral monocyte count in patients with extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Jia-Jia; Li, Ya-Jun; Xia, Yi; Wang, Yu; Wei, Wen-Xiao; Zhu, Ying-Jie; Lin, Tong-Yu; Huang, Hui-Qiang; Jiang, Wen-Qi; Li, Zhi-Ming

2013-05-03

Extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma (ENKL) has heterogeneous clinical manifestations and prognosis. This study aims to evaluate the prognostic impact of absolute monocyte count (AMC) in ENKL, and provide some immunologically relevant information for better risk stratification in patients with ENKL. Retrospective data from 163 patients newly diagnosed with ENKL were analyzed. The absolute monocyte count (AMC) at diagnosis was analyzed as continuous and dichotomized variables. Independent prognostic factors of survival were determined by Cox regression analysis. The AMC at diagnosis were related to overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) in patients with ENKL. Multivariate analysis identified AMC as independent prognostic factors of survival, independent of International Prognostic Index (IPI) and Korean prognostic index (KPI). The prognostic index incorporating AMC and absolute lymphocyte count (ALC), another surrogate factor of immune status, could be used to stratify all 163 patients with ENKL into different prognostic groups. For patients who received chemotherapy followed by radiotherapy (102 cases), the three AMC/ALC index categories identified patients with significantly different survivals. When superimposed on IPI or KPI categories, the AMC/ALC index was better able to identify high-risk patients in the low-risk IPI or KPI category. The baseline peripheral monocyte count is shown to be an effective prognostic indicator of survival in ENKL patients. The prognostic index related to tumor microenvironment might be helpful to identify high-risk patients with ENKL.

A probabilistic physics-of-failure model for prognostic health management of structures subject to pitting and corrosion-fatigue

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chookah, M.; Nuhi, M.; Modarres, M.

2011-01-01

A combined probabilistic physics-of-failure-based model for pitting and corrosion-fatigue degradation mechanisms is proposed to estimate the reliability of structures and to perform prognosis and health management. A mechanistic superposition model for corrosion-fatigue mechanism was used as a benchmark model to propose the simple model. The proposed model describes the degradation of the structures as a function of physical and critical environmental stresses, such as amplitude and frequency of mechanical loads (for example caused by the internal piping pressure) and the concentration of corrosive chemical agents. The parameters of the proposed model are represented by the probability density functions and estimated through a Bayesian approach based on the data taken from the experiments performed as part of this research. For demonstrating applications, the proposed model provides prognostic information about the reliability of aging of structures and is helpful in developing inspection and replacement strategies. - Highlights: ► We model an inventory system under static–dynamic uncertainty strategy. ► The demand is stochastic and non-stationary. ► The optimal ordering policy is proven to be a base stock policy. ► A solution algorithm for finding an optimal solution is provided. ► Two heuristics developed produce high quality solutions and scale-up efficiently.

Smart Sensing System for the Prognostic Monitoring of Bone Health

KAUST Repository

Afsarimanesh, Nasrin

2016-06-24

The objective of this paper is to report a novel non-invasive, real-time, and label-free smart assay technique for the prognostic detection of bone loss by electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS). The proposed system incorporated an antibody-antigen-based sensor functionalization to induce selectivity for the C-terminal telopeptide type one collagen (CTx-I) molecules—a bone loss biomarker. Streptavidin agarose was immobilized on the sensing area of a silicon substrate-based planar sensor, patterned with gold interdigital electrodes, to capture the antibody-antigen complex. Calibration experiments were conducted with various known CTx-I concentrations in a buffer solution to obtain a reference curve that was used to quantify the concentration of an analyte in the unknown serum samples. Multivariate chemometric analyses were done to determine the performance viability of the developed system. The analyses suggested that a frequency of 710 Hz is the most discriminating regarding the system sensitivity. A detection limit of 0.147 ng/mL was achieved for the proposed sensor and the corresponding reference curve was linear in the range of 0.147 ng/mL to 2.669 ng/mL. Two sheep blood samples were tested by the developed technique and the results were validated using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). The results from the proposed technique match those from the ELISA.

Smart Sensing System for the Prognostic Monitoring of Bone Health

KAUST Repository

Afsarimanesh, Nasrin; Zia, Asif; Mukhopadhyay, Subhas; Kruger, Marlena; Yu, Pak-Lam; Kosel, Jü rgen; Kovacs, Zoltan

2016-01-01

The objective of this paper is to report a novel non-invasive, real-time, and label-free smart assay technique for the prognostic detection of bone loss by electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS). The proposed system incorporated an antibody-antigen-based sensor functionalization to induce selectivity for the C-terminal telopeptide type one collagen (CTx-I) molecules—a bone loss biomarker. Streptavidin agarose was immobilized on the sensing area of a silicon substrate-based planar sensor, patterned with gold interdigital electrodes, to capture the antibody-antigen complex. Calibration experiments were conducted with various known CTx-I concentrations in a buffer solution to obtain a reference curve that was used to quantify the concentration of an analyte in the unknown serum samples. Multivariate chemometric analyses were done to determine the performance viability of the developed system. The analyses suggested that a frequency of 710 Hz is the most discriminating regarding the system sensitivity. A detection limit of 0.147 ng/mL was achieved for the proposed sensor and the corresponding reference curve was linear in the range of 0.147 ng/mL to 2.669 ng/mL. Two sheep blood samples were tested by the developed technique and the results were validated using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). The results from the proposed technique match those from the ELISA.

Uncertainty Representation and Interpretation in Model-Based Prognostics Algorithms Based on Kalman Filter Estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Galvan, Jose Ramon; Saxena, Abhinav; Goebel, Kai Frank

2012-01-01

This article discusses several aspects of uncertainty representation and management for model-based prognostics methodologies based on our experience with Kalman Filters when applied to prognostics for electronics components. In particular, it explores the implications of modeling remaining useful life prediction as a stochastic process, and how it relates to uncertainty representation, management and the role of prognostics in decision-making. A distinction between the interpretations of estimated remaining useful life probability density function is explained and a cautionary argument is provided against mixing interpretations for two while considering prognostics in making critical decisions.

Modeling for Battery Prognostics

Science.gov (United States)

Kulkarni, Chetan S.; Goebel, Kai; Khasin, Michael; Hogge, Edward; Quach, Patrick

2017-01-01

For any battery-powered vehicles (be it unmanned aerial vehicles, small passenger aircraft, or assets in exoplanetary operations) to operate at maximum efficiency and reliability, it is critical to monitor battery health as well performance and to predict end of discharge (EOD) and end of useful life (EOL). To fulfil these needs, it is important to capture the battery's inherent characteristics as well as operational knowledge in the form of models that can be used by monitoring, diagnostic, and prognostic algorithms. Several battery modeling methodologies have been developed in last few years as the understanding of underlying electrochemical mechanics has been advancing. The models can generally be classified as empirical models, electrochemical engineering models, multi-physics models, and molecular/atomist. Empirical models are based on fitting certain functions to past experimental data, without making use of any physicochemical principles. Electrical circuit equivalent models are an example of such empirical models. Electrochemical engineering models are typically continuum models that include electrochemical kinetics and transport phenomena. Each model has its advantages and disadvantages. The former type of model has the advantage of being computationally efficient, but has limited accuracy and robustness, due to the approximations used in developed model, and as a result of such approximations, cannot represent aging well. The latter type of model has the advantage of being very accurate, but is often computationally inefficient, having to solve complex sets of partial differential equations, and thus not suited well for online prognostic applications. In addition both multi-physics and atomist models are computationally expensive hence are even less suited to online application An electrochemistry-based model of Li-ion batteries has been developed, that captures crucial electrochemical processes, captures effects of aging, is computationally efficient

Improving Computational Efficiency of Prediction in Model-Based Prognostics Using the Unscented Transform

Science.gov (United States)

Daigle, Matthew John; Goebel, Kai Frank

2010-01-01

Model-based prognostics captures system knowledge in the form of physics-based models of components, and how they fail, in order to obtain accurate predictions of end of life (EOL). EOL is predicted based on the estimated current state distribution of a component and expected profiles of future usage. In general, this requires simulations of the component using the underlying models. In this paper, we develop a simulation-based prediction methodology that achieves computational efficiency by performing only the minimal number of simulations needed in order to accurately approximate the mean and variance of the complete EOL distribution. This is performed through the use of the unscented transform, which predicts the means and covariances of a distribution passed through a nonlinear transformation. In this case, the EOL simulation acts as that nonlinear transformation. In this paper, we review the unscented transform, and describe how this concept is applied to efficient EOL prediction. As a case study, we develop a physics-based model of a solenoid valve, and perform simulation experiments to demonstrate improved computational efficiency without sacrificing prediction accuracy.

Metrics for Evaluating Performance of Prognostic Techniques

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Prognostics is an emerging concept in condition basedmaintenance(CBM)ofcriticalsystems.Alongwith developing the fundamentals of being able to confidently predict...

Health risk assessment linked with purified biogas injection in a natural gas distribution system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leroux, Carole; Modelon, Hugues; Rousselle, Christophe; Zdanevitch, Isabelle; Evanno, Sebastien

2009-06-01

This document provides for the opinion of the French Agency for Environmental and Occupational Health and Safety (Afsset) expressed after the collective expertise carried out for the evaluation of the health risk linked with biogas injection in the natural gas distribution system. Following the recommendations issued by the Afsset, works have been started in order to collect the sludge-derived biogas and to analyse its composition. These data will be used to assess accidental risks (resulting from biogas valorisation, pipeline transport, industrial and domestic energy valorisation) as well as health risks for users (resulting from the injection in the natural gas distribution system)

Diagnostic and prognostic epigenetic biomarkers in cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Costa-Pinheiro, Pedro; Montezuma, Diana; Henrique, Rui; Jerónimo, Carmen

2015-01-01

Growing cancer incidence and mortality worldwide demands development of accurate biomarkers to perfect detection, diagnosis, prognostication and monitoring. Urologic (prostate, bladder, kidney), lung, breast and colorectal cancers are the most common and despite major advances in their characterization, this has seldom translated into biomarkers amenable for clinical practice. Epigenetic alterations are innovative cancer biomarkers owing to stability, frequency, reversibility and accessibility in body fluids, entailing great potential of assay development to assist in patient management. Several studies identified putative epigenetic cancer biomarkers, some of which have been commercialized. However, large multicenter validation studies are required to foster translation to the clinics. Herein we review the most promising epigenetic detection, diagnostic, prognostic and predictive biomarkers for the most common cancers.

Prognostic value of preoperative inflammatory markers in Chinese patients with breast cancer

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yao MY

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Minya Yao,1 Yu Liu,1 Hailong Jin,2 Xiaojiao Liu,1 Kezhen Lv,1 Haiyan Wei,1 Chengyong Du,1 Shuqian Wang,1 Bajin Wei,1 Peifen Fu1 1Department of Breast Center, 2Gastrointestinal Surgery, First Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, People's Republic of China Abstract: Cancer-associated inflammation is a key determinant of disease progression and survival in most cancers. The aim of our study was to assess the predictive value of preoperative inflammatory markers, such as the neutrophil–lymphocyte ratio (NLR, platelet–lymphocyte ratio, red cell distribution width (RDW, and mean platelet volume, for survival in breast cancer patients. In total, 608 breast cancer patients operated on between January 2009 and December 2011 were included in this observational study. The association between preoperative inflammatory markers and survival outcomes was analyzed. Patients with high NLR (>2.57 or high RDW (>13.45% showed a significantly lower overall survival rate than those with lower NLR (≤2.57 or lower RDW (≤13.45%. NLR and RDW, along with node stage and molecular subtypes, were independent prognostic factors. There was a significant survival difference according to NLR in the luminal A and triple-negative subtypes (93.3% versus 99.3%, P=0.001; 68.8% versus 95.1%, P=0.000, respectively. The triple-negative subtype was the only subtype in which higher RDW patients showed significantly poor prognosis (81.3% versus 95.5%, P=0.025. Pre-operation NLR and RDW is a convenient, easily measured prognostic indicator for patients with breast cancer, especially in patients with the triple-negative subtype. Keywords: neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, NLR, red cell distribution width, RDW, overall survival

Development of a Prognostic Marker for Lung Cancer Using Analysis of Tumor Evolution

Science.gov (United States)

2017-08-01

AWARD NUMBER: W81XWH-15-1-0243 TITLE: Development of a Prognostic Marker for Lung Cancer Using Analysis of Tumor Evolution PRINCIPAL...SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER Development of a Prognostic Marker for Lung Cancer Using Analysis of Tumor Evolution 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM...derive a prognostic classifier. 15. SUBJECT TERMS NSCLC; tumor evolution ; whole exome sequencing 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF

Serum prognostic biomarkers in head and neck cancer patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Ho-Sheng; Siddiq, Fauzia; Talwar, Harvinder S; Chen, Wei; Voichita, Calin; Draghici, Sorin; Jeyapalan, Gerald; Chatterjee, Madhumita; Fribley, Andrew; Yoo, George H; Sethi, Seema; Kim, Harold; Sukari, Ammar; Folbe, Adam J; Tainsky, Michael A

2014-08-01

A reliable estimate of survival is important as it may impact treatment choice. The objective of this study is to identify serum autoantibody biomarkers that can be used to improve prognostication for patients affected with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). Prospective cohort study. A panel of 130 serum biomarkers, previously selected for cancer detection using microarray-based serological profiling and specialized bioinformatics, were evaluated for their potential as prognostic biomarkers in a cohort of 119 HNSCC patients followed for up to 12.7 years. A biomarker was considered positive if its reactivity to the particular patient's serum was greater than one standard deviation above the mean reactivity to sera from the other 118 patients, using a leave-one-out cross-validation model. Survival curves were estimated according to the Kaplan-Meier method, and statistically significant differences in survival were examined using the log rank test. Independent prognostic biomarkers were identified following analysis using multivariate Cox proportional hazards models. Poor overall survival was associated with African Americans (hazard ratio [HR] for death = 2.61; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.58-4.33; P = .000), advanced stage (HR = 2.79; 95% CI: 1.40-5.57; P = .004), and recurrent disease (HR = 6.66; 95% CI: 2.54-17.44; P = .000). On multivariable Cox analysis adjusted for covariates (race and stage), six of the 130 markers evaluated were found to be independent prognosticators of overall survival. The results shown here are promising and demonstrate the potential use of serum biomarkers for prognostication in HNSCC patients. Further clinical trials to include larger samples of patients across multiple centers may be warranted. © 2014 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

Context-dependent interpretation of the prognostic value of BRAF and KRAS mutations in colorectal cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Popovici, Vlad; Budinska, Eva; Bosman, Fred T; Tejpar, Sabine; Roth, Arnaud D; Delorenzi, Mauro

2013-01-01

The mutation status of the BRAF and KRAS genes has been proposed as prognostic biomarker in colorectal cancer. Of them, only the BRAF V600E mutation has been validated independently as prognostic for overall survival and survival after relapse, while the prognostic value of KRAS mutation is still unclear. We investigated the prognostic value of BRAF and KRAS mutations in various contexts defined by stratifications of the patient population. We retrospectively analyzed a cohort of patients with stage II and III colorectal cancer from the PETACC-3 clinical trial (N = 1,423), by assessing the prognostic value of the BRAF and KRAS mutations in subpopulations defined by all possible combinations of the following clinico-pathological variables: T stage, N stage, tumor site, tumor grade and microsatellite instability status. In each such subpopulation, the prognostic value was assessed by log rank test for three endpoints: overall survival, relapse-free survival, and survival after relapse. The significance level was set to 0.01 for Bonferroni-adjusted p-values, and a second threshold for a trend towards statistical significance was set at 0.05 for unadjusted p-values. The significance of the interactions was tested by Wald test, with significance level of 0.05. In stage II-III colorectal cancer, BRAF mutation was confirmed a marker of poor survival only in subpopulations involving microsatellite stable and left-sided tumors, with higher effects than in the whole population. There was no evidence for prognostic value in microsatellite instable or right-sided tumor groups. We found that BRAF was also prognostic for relapse-free survival in some subpopulations. We found no evidence that KRAS mutations had prognostic value, although a trend was observed in some stratifications. We also show evidence of heterogeneity in survival of patients with BRAF V600E mutation. The BRAF mutation represents an additional risk factor only in some subpopulations of colorectal cancers, in

Performance of critical care prognostic scoring systems in low and middle-income countries: a systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Haniffa, Rashan; Isaam, Ilhaam; De Silva, A Pubudu; Dondorp, Arjen M; De Keizer, Nicolette F

2018-01-26

Prognostic models-used in critical care medicine for mortality predictions, for benchmarking and for illness stratification in clinical trials-have been validated predominantly in high-income countries. These results may not be reproducible in low or middle-income countries (LMICs), not only because of different case-mix characteristics but also because of missing predictor variables. The study objective was to systematically review literature on the use of critical care prognostic models in LMICs and assess their ability to discriminate between survivors and non-survivors at hospital discharge of those admitted to intensive care units (ICUs), their calibration, their accuracy, and the manner in which missing values were handled. The PubMed database was searched in March 2017 to identify research articles reporting the use and performance of prognostic models in the evaluation of mortality in ICUs in LMICs. Studies carried out in ICUs in high-income countries or paediatric ICUs and studies that evaluated disease-specific scoring systems, were limited to a specific disease or single prognostic factor, were published only as abstracts, editorials, letters and systematic and narrative reviews or were not in English were excluded. Of the 2233 studies retrieved, 473 were searched and 50 articles reporting 119 models were included. Five articles described the development and evaluation of new models, whereas 114 articles externally validated Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation, the Simplified Acute Physiology Score and Mortality Probability Models or versions thereof. Missing values were only described in 34% of studies; exclusion and or imputation by normal values were used. Discrimination, calibration and accuracy were reported in 94.0%, 72.4% and 25% respectively. Good discrimination and calibration were reported in 88.9% and 58.3% respectively. However, only 10 evaluations that reported excellent discrimination also reported good calibration

An Assessment of Integrated Health Management (IHM) Frameworks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lybeck, N.; Tawfik, M.; Coble, J.; Bond, L.J.

2012-01-01

In order to meet the ever increasing demand for energy, the United States (U.S.) nuclear industry is turning to life extension of existing nuclear power plants (NPPs). Economically ensuring the safe, secure, and reliable operation of aging nuclear power plants presents many challenges. The 2009 Light Water Reactor Sustainability Workshop identified online monitoring of active and structural components as essential to the better understanding and management of the challenges posed by aging nuclear power plants. Additionally, there is increasing adoption of condition-based maintenance (CBM) for active components in NPPs. These techniques provide a foundation upon which a variety of advanced online surveillance, diagnostic, and prognostic techniques can be deployed to continuously monitor and assess the health of NPP systems and components. The next step in the development of advanced online monitoring is to move beyond CBM to estimating the remaining useful life of active components using prognostic tools. Deployment of prognostic health management (PHM) on the scale of a NPP requires the use of an integrated health management (IHM) framework-a software product (or suite of products) used to manage the necessary elements needed for a complete implementation of online monitoring and prognostics. This paper provides a thoughtful look at the desirable functions and features of IHM architectures. A full PHM system involves several modules, including data acquisition, system modeling, fault detection, fault diagnostics, system prognostics, and advisory generation (operations and maintenance planning). The standards applicable to PHM applications are indentified and summarized. A list of evaluation criteria for PHM software products, developed to ensure scalability of the toolset to an environment with the complexity of a NPP, is presented. Fourteen commercially available PHM software products are identified and classified into four groups: research tools, PHM system

An Assessment of Integrated Health Management (IHM) Frameworks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lybeck, N.; Tawfik, M.; Bond, L.; Coble, J.

2012-01-01

In order to meet the ever increasing demand for energy, the United States nuclear industry is turning to life extension of existing nuclear power plants (NPPs). Economically ensuring the safe, secure, and reliable operation of aging nuclear power plants presents many challenges. The 2009 Light Water Reactor Sustainability Workshop identified online monitoring of active and structural components as essential to the better understanding and management of the challenges posed by aging nuclear power plants. Additionally, there is increasing adoption of condition-based maintenance (CBM) for active components in NPPs. These techniques provide a foundation upon which a variety of advanced online surveillance, diagnostic, and prognostic techniques can be deployed to continuously monitor and assess the health of NPP systems and components. The next step in the development of advanced online monitoring is to move beyond CBM to estimating the remaining useful life of active components using prognostic tools. Deployment of prognostic health management (PHM) on the scale of a NPP requires the use of an integrated health management (IHM) framework - a software product (or suite of products) used to manage the necessary elements needed for a complete implementation of online monitoring and prognostics. This paper provides a thoughtful look at the desirable functions and features of IHM architectures. A full PHM system involves several modules, including data acquisition, system modeling, fault detection, fault diagnostics, system prognostics, and advisory generation (operations and maintenance planning). The standards applicable to PHM applications are indentified and summarized. A list of evaluation criteria for PHM software products, developed to ensure scalability of the toolset to an environment with the complexity of a NPP, is presented. Fourteen commercially available PHM software products are identified and classified into four groups: research tools, PHM system

MICRONUCLEI: A PROGNOSTIC TOOL

OpenAIRE

Ankit; Rinky; Manisha; Sonalika; Anand; Sanyog

2014-01-01

Squamous cell carcinoma is one the most common oral mucosal malignant tumor, diagnosis of oral squamous cell carcinoma rarely presents difficulty, it is the cancer staging and histo pathological grading that are more important for prognosis, micronuclei are good prognostic indicator. Micronuclei screening can be done easily by exfoliative cytology, one of the most valuable diagnostic method other than routine histopathology (H and E-stained sections) and immunohistochemist...

Course and Prognostic Factors for Neck Pain in Whiplash-Associated Disorders (WAD)

Science.gov (United States)

Holm, Lena W.; Hogg-Johnson, Sheilah; Côté, Pierre; Cassidy, J. David; Haldeman, Scott; Nordin, Margareta; Hurwitz, Eric L.; Carragee, Eugene J.; van der Velde, Gabrielle; Peloso, Paul M.; Guzman, Jaime

2008-01-01

Study Design Best evidence synthesis. Objective To perform a best evidence synthesis on the course and prognostic factors for neck pain and its associated disorders in Grades I–III whiplash-associated disorders (WAD). Summary of Background Data Knowledge of the course of recovery of WAD guides expectations for recovery. Identifying prognostic factors assists in planning management and intervention strategies and effective compensation policies to decrease the burden of WAD. Methods The Bone and Joint Decade 2000–2010 Task Force on Neck Pain and its Associated Disorders (Neck Pain Task Force) conducted a critical review of the literature published between 1980 and 2006 to assemble the best evidence on neck pain and its associated disorders. Studies meeting criteria for scientific validity were included in a best evidence synthesis. Results We found 226 articles related to course and prognostic factors in neck pain and its associated disorders. After a critical review, 70 (31%) were accepted on scientific merit; 47 of these studies related to course and prognostic factors in WAD. The evidence suggests that approximately 50% of those with WAD will report neck pain symptoms 1 year after their injuries. Greater initial pain, more symptoms, and greater initial disability predicted slower recovery. Few factors related to the collision itself (for example, direction of the collision, headrest type) were prognostic; however, postinjury psychological factors such as passive coping style, depressed mood, and fear of movement were prognostic for slower or less complete recovery. There is also preliminary evidence that the prevailing compensation system is prognostic for recovery in WAD. Conclusion The Neck Pain Task Force undertook a best evidence synthesis to establish a baseline of the current best evidence on the course and prognosis for WAD. Recovery of WAD seems to be multifactorial.

A Hybrid Prognostic Approach for Remaining Useful Life Prediction of Lithium-Ion Batteries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wen-An Yang

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Lithium-ion battery is a core component of many systems such as satellite, spacecraft, and electric vehicles and its failure can lead to reduced capability, downtime, and even catastrophic breakdowns. Remaining useful life (RUL prediction of lithium-ion batteries before the future failure event is extremely crucial for proactive maintenance/safety actions. This study proposes a hybrid prognostic approach that can predict the RUL of degraded lithium-ion batteries using physical laws and data-driven modeling simultaneously. In this hybrid prognostic approach, the relevant vectors obtained with the selective kernel ensemble-based relevance vector machine (RVM learning algorithm are fitted to the physical degradation model, which is then extrapolated to failure threshold for estimating the RUL of the lithium-ion battery of interest. The experimental results indicated that the proposed hybrid prognostic approach can accurately predict the RUL of degraded lithium-ion batteries. Empirical comparisons show that the proposed hybrid prognostic approach using the selective kernel ensemble-based RVM learning algorithm performs better than the hybrid prognostic approaches using the popular learning algorithms of feedforward artificial neural networks (ANNs like the conventional backpropagation (BP algorithm and support vector machines (SVMs. In addition, an investigation is also conducted to identify the effects of RVM learning algorithm on the proposed hybrid prognostic approach.

Simulating Degradation Data for Prognostic Algorithm Development

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — PHM08 Challenge Dataset is now publicly available at the NASA Prognostics Respository + Download INTRODUCTION - WHY SIMULATE DEGRADATION DATA? Of various challenges...

Linking Health Concepts in the Assessment and Evaluation of Water Distribution Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Karney, Bryan W.; Filion, Yves R.

2005-01-01

The concept of health is not only a specific criterion for evaluation of water quality delivered by a distribution system but also a suitable paradigm for overall functioning of the hydraulic and structural components of the system. This article views health, despite its complexities, as the only criterion with suitable depth and breadth to allow…

Retrospective study on prognostic importance of serum procalcitonin and amino - terminal pro - brain natriuretic peptide levels as compared to Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV Score on Intensive Care Unit admission, in a mixed Intensive Care Unit population

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chitra Mehta

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Background: Timely decision making in Intensive Care Unit (ICU is very essential to improve the outcome of critically sick patients. Conventional scores like Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE IV are quite cumbersome with calculations and take minimum 24 hours. Procalcitonin has shown to have prognostic value in ICU/Emergency department (ED in disease states like pneumonia, sepsis etc. NTproBNP has demonstrated excellent diagnostic and prognostic importance in cardiac diseases. It has also been found elevated in non-cardiac diseases. We chose to study the prognostic utility of these markers on ICU admission. Settings and Design: Retrospective observational study. Materials and Methods: A Retrospective analysis of 100 eligible patients was done who had undergone PCT and NTproBNP measurements on ICU admission. Their correlations with all cause mortality, length of hospital stay, need for ventilator support, need for vasopressors were performed. Results: Among 100 randomly selected ICU patients, 28 were non-survivors. NTproBNP values on admission significantly correlated with all cause mortality (P = 0.036, AUC = 0.643 and morbidity (P = 0.000, AUC = 0.763, comparable to that of APACHE-IV score. PCT values on admission did not show significant association with mortality, but correlated well with morbidity and prolonged hospital length of stay (AUC = 0.616, P = 0.045. Conclusion: The current study demonstrated a good predictive value of NTproBNP, in terms of mortality and morbidity comparable to that of APACHE-IV score. Procalcitonin, however, was found to have doubtful prognostic importance. These findings need to be confirmed in a prospective larger study.

Prognostics-based qualification of high-power white LEDs using Lévy process approach

Science.gov (United States)

Yung, Kam-Chuen; Sun, Bo; Jiang, Xiaopeng

2017-01-01

Due to their versatility in a variety of applications and the growing market demand, high-power white light-emitting diodes (LEDs) have attracted considerable attention. Reliability qualification testing is an essential part of the product development process to ensure the reliability of a new LED product before its release. However, the widely used IES-TM-21 method does not provide comprehensive reliability information. For more accurate and effective qualification, this paper presents a novel method based on prognostics techniques. Prognostics is an engineering technology predicting the future reliability or determining the remaining useful lifetime (RUL) of a product by assessing the extent of deviation or degradation from its expected normal operating conditions. A Lévy subordinator of a mixed Gamma and compound Poisson process is used to describe the actual degradation process of LEDs characterized by random sporadic small jumps of degradation degree, and the reliability function is derived for qualification with different distribution forms of jump sizes. The IES LM-80 test results reported by different LED vendors are used to develop and validate the qualification methodology. This study will be helpful for LED manufacturers to reduce the total test time and cost required to qualify the reliability of an LED product.

Prognostic Factors in Patients Hospitalized with Diabetic Ketoacidosis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Avinash Agarwal

2016-09-01

Full Text Available BackgroundDiabetic ketoacidosis (DKA is characterized by a biochemical triad of hyperglycemia, acidosis, and ketonemia. This condition is life-threatening despite improvements in diabetic care. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the clinical and biochemical prognostic markers of DKA. We assessed correlations in prognostic markers with DKA-associated morbidity and mortality.MethodsTwo hundred and seventy patients that were hospitalized with DKA over a period of 2 years were evaluated clinically and by laboratory tests. Serial assays of serum electrolytes, glucose, and blood pH were performed, and clinical outcome was noted as either discharged to home or death.ResultsThe analysis indicated that significant predictors included sex, history of type 1 diabetes mellitus or type 2 diabetes mellitus, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, total leukocyte count, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II score, blood urea nitrogen, serum creatinine, serum magnesium, serum phosphate, serum osmolality, serum glutamic oxaloacetic transaminases, serum glutamic pyruvic transaminases, serum albumin, which were further regressed and subjected to multivariate logistic regression (MLR analysis. The MLR analysis indicated that males were 7.93 times more likely to have favorable outcome compared with female patients (odds ratio, 7.93; 95% confidence interval, 3.99 to 13.51, while decreases in mean APACHE II score (14.83 and serum phosphate (4.38 at presentation may lead to 2.86- and 2.71-fold better outcomes, respectively, compared with higher levels (APACHE II score, 25.00; serum phosphate, 6.04.ConclusionSex, baseline biochemical parameters such as APACHE II score, and phosphate level were important predictors of the DKA-associated mortality.

Neutrophils as a prognostic factor in the systemic treatment of Ovarian Cancer

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Henriksen, Jon Røikjær; Dahl Steffensen, Karina

Background and Aims: The role of the immune system regarding development and treatment of cancer has a very high interest in modern cancer research. Research in ovarian cancer immunology is sparse compared to other tumour types. Neutrophils have been shown to possess both tumor promoting and tumor...... prognostic marker in multivariate analysis comparing low vs high baseline neutrophils (HR: 1.97) ( 95% CI: 1.18-3.30)(P=0.009). Other independent prognostic markers were FIGO stage, residual tumour and performance status. Conclusions: Baseline neutrophil blood count was found to be an independent prognostic...

Prognostic factors in non-muscle-invasive bladder tumors - I. Clinical prognostic factors: A review of the experience of the EORTC genito-urinary group - II. Biologic prognostic markers

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kurth, Karl-Heinz; Sylvester, Richard J.

2007-01-01

Objectives: To summarize the most important clinical prognostic factors of non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer, as assessed by the European organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) Genito-Urinary Group, to present biologic markers involved in urothelial cell carcinoma, and to address

The decentralisation-centralisation dilemma: recruitment and distribution of health workers in remote districts of Tanzania.

Science.gov (United States)

Munga, Michael A; Songstad, Nils Gunnar; Blystad, Astrid; Maestad, Ottar

2009-04-30

The implementation of decentralisation reforms in the health sector of Tanzania started in the 1980s. These reforms were intended to relinquish substantial powers and resources to districts to improve the development of the health sector. Little is known about the impact of decentralisation on recruitment and distribution of health workers at the district level. Reported difficulties in recruiting health workers to remote districts led the Government of Tanzania to partly re-instate central recruitment of health workers in 2006. The effects of this policy change are not yet documented. This study highlights the experiences and challenges associated with decentralisation and the partial re-centralisation in relation to the recruitment and distribution of health workers. An exploratory qualitative study was conducted among informants recruited from five underserved, remote districts of mainland Tanzania. Additional informants were recruited from the central government, the NGO sector, international organisations and academia. A comparison of decentralised and the reinstated centralised systems was carried out in order to draw lessons necessary for improving recruitment, distribution and retention of health workers. The study has shown that recruitment of health workers under a decentralised arrangement has not only been characterised by complex bureaucratic procedures, but by severe delays and sometimes failure to get the required health workers. The study also revealed that recruitment of highly skilled health workers under decentralised arrangements may be both very difficult and expensive. Decentralised recruitment was perceived to be more effective in improving retention of the lower cadre health workers within the districts. In contrast, the centralised arrangement was perceived to be more effective both in recruiting qualified staff and balancing their distribution across districts, but poor in ensuring the retention of employees. A combination of centralised

Prognostic model based on nailfold capillaroscopy for identifying Raynaud's phenomenon patients at high risk for the development of a scleroderma spectrum disorder: PRINCE (prognostic index for nailfold capillaroscopic examination).

Science.gov (United States)

Ingegnoli, Francesca; Boracchi, Patrizia; Gualtierotti, Roberta; Lubatti, Chiara; Meani, Laura; Zahalkova, Lenka; Zeni, Silvana; Fantini, Flavio

2008-07-01

To construct a prognostic index based on nailfold capillaroscopic examinations that is capable of predicting the 5-year transition from isolated Raynaud's phenomenon (RP) to RP secondary to scleroderma spectrum disorders (SSDs). The study involved 104 consecutive adult patients with a clinical history of isolated RP, and the index was externally validated in another cohort of 100 patients with the same characteristics. Both groups were followed up for 1-8 years. Six variables were examined because of their potential prognostic relevance (branching, enlarged and giant loops, capillary disorganization, microhemorrhages, and the number of capillaries). The only factors that played a significant prognostic role were the presence of giant loops (hazard ratio [HR] 2.64, P = 0.008) and microhemorrhages (HR 2.33, P = 0.01), and the number of capillaries (analyzed as a continuous variable). The adjusted prognostic role of these factors was evaluated by means of multivariate regression analysis, and the results were used to construct an algorithm-based prognostic index. The model was internally and externally validated. Our prognostic capillaroscopic index identifies RP patients in whom the risk of developing SSDs is high. This model is a weighted combination of different capillaroscopy parameters that allows physicians to stratify RP patients easily, using a relatively simple diagram to deduce the prognosis. Our results suggest that this index could be used in clinical practice, and its further inclusion in prospective studies will undoubtedly help in exploring its potential in predicting treatment response.

Metrics for Evaluating Performance of Prognostics Techniques

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Prognostics is an emerging concept in condition based maintenance (CBM) of critical systems. Along with developing the fundamentals of being able to confidently...

Using prognostic models in CLL to personalize approach to clinical care: Are we there yet?

Science.gov (United States)

Mina, Alain; Sandoval Sus, Jose; Sleiman, Elsa; Pinilla-Ibarz, Javier; Awan, Farrukh T; Kharfan-Dabaja, Mohamed A

2018-03-01

Four decades ago, two staging systems were developed to help stratify CLL into different prognostic categories. These systems, the Rai and the Binet staging, depended entirely on abnormal exam findings and evidence of anemia and thrombocytopenia. Better understanding of biologic, genetic, and molecular characteristics of CLL have contributed to better appreciating its clinical heterogeneity. New prognostic models, the GCLLSG prognostic index and the CLL-IPI, emerged. They incorporate biologic and genetic information related to CLL and are capable of predicting survival outcomes and cases anticipated to need therapy earlier in the disease course. Accordingly, these newer models are helping develop better informed surveillance strategies and ultimately tailor treatment intensity according to presence (or lack thereof) of certain prognostic markers. This represents a step towards personalizing care of CLL patients. We anticipate that as more prognostic factors continue to be identified, the GCLLSG prognostic index and CLL-IPI models will undergo further revisions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prognostic features for quality of life after radical cystectomy and orthotopic neobladder

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Alexander Kretschmer

Full Text Available ABSTRACT Purpose: To analyse prognostic features on quality of life (QoL following radical cystectomy and urinary diversion via orthotopic neobladder in a single-centre patient cohort. Materials and Methods: Postoperative QoL of 152 patients was assessed retrospectively using the validated QLQ-C30 questionnaire. Potential associations of patient's quality of life including pre-and intraoperative characteristics, surgeon experience, postoperative time course, adjuvant therapies, and functional outcome were defined a priori and evaluated. Mann-Whitney-U-, Kruskal-Wallis-, Spearman correlation and post hoc-testing were used. A multivariate analysis using a multiple logistic regression model was performed. A p value 100 previous cystectomies, p=0.007, and nerve-sparing surgery (p=0.001. Patients who underwent secondary chemotherapy or radiotherapy had significant lower QLQ-C30 scores (p=0.04, p=0.02 respectively. Patients who were asymptomatic had a significantly higher quality of life (p<0.001. A significant impact of severity of incontinence based on ICIQ-SF score (p<0.001 and daily pad usage (p<0.001, existence of daytime incontinence (p<0.001, existence of urgency symptoms (p=0.007, and IIEF-5 score (p<0.001 could be observed. In multivariate analysis, independent prognostic relevance could be confirmed for preoperative ECOG performance status of 0 (p=0.020 vs. ECOG 1, p=0.047 vs. ECOG 2, experience of the respective surgeon (≥100 vs. <100 previous cystectomies, p=0.021, and daytime continence (p=0.032. Conclusion: In the present study, we report health-related QoL outcomes in a contemporary patient cohort and confirm preoperative ECOG status, surgeon experience and daytime incontinence as independent prognostic features for a good postoperative QoL.

Snakebite Prognostic Factors: Leading Factors of Weak Therapeutic Response Following Snakebite Envenomation

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Bita Dadpour

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Background: The goal of antivenom administration for snake-bitten patients is to achieve therapeutic response (initial control, which means reversal of the venom-induced effects through neutralizing the venom. The aim of this study was to identify snakebite prognostic factors of weak therapeutic response prior to antivenom administration. Methods: This was a retrospective study of patients with viperidae snakebite envenomation who were admitted to Mashhad Toxicology Centre during 2007-2011. Demographic features, clinical manifestations and snakebite severity score (SSS were collected prior to antivenom administration. Total number of antivenom vials administered to achieve therapeutic response and duration of hospitalization were also recorded. Potential factors in snakebite prognosis were analyzed by comparing in two groups of achieving therapeutic response with less than 5 vials and over 5 to calculate odds ratio.  Results: Total of 108 patients (male/female: 85/23 with mean (SD age of 34.5 (17.0 were studied. The most common manifestations included fang marks (100%, pain (100%, ecchymosis (89%, swelling (83%, blister formation (48% and thrombocytopenia (25%. In univariate analysis, thrombocytopenia (P=0.01, spontaneous bleeding (P=0.02, coagulopathic disturbances (P=0.007, swelling (P=0.003, progressive swelling (P=0.005, ecchymosis (P=0.05 and respiratory distress (P= 0.05 were significantly correlated to weak therapeutic response. Swelling and spontaneous bleeding were the strongest snakebite prognostic factors, as respectively they put the patients at 12.4 and 10.4 fold risks for difficult achievement of therapeutic response. Conclusions: In snakebite, some clinical manifestations in the first hours of admission and prior to antivenom administration are associated with weak therapeutic response. Identifying these prognostic factors, can assist health care providers to better estimate the patient’s needs and predict the final

Component-Level Prognostics Health Management Framework for Passive Components - Advanced Reactor Technology Milestone: M2AT-15PN2301043

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Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Roy, Surajit; Hirt, Evelyn H.; Prowant, Matthew S.; Pitman, Stan G.; Tucker, Joseph C.; Dib, Gerges; Pardini, Allan F.

2015-06-19

This report describes research results to date in support of the integration and demonstration of diagnostics technologies for prototypical advanced reactor passive components (to establish condition indices for monitoring) with model-based prognostics methods. Achieving this objective will necessitate addressing several of the research gaps and technical needs described in previous technical reports in this series.

Prognostic Biomarkers Used for Localised Prostate Cancer Management: A Systematic Review.

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Lamy, Pierre-Jean; Allory, Yves; Gauchez, Anne-Sophie; Asselain, Bernard; Beuzeboc, Philippe; de Cremoux, Patricia; Fontugne, Jacqueline; Georges, Agnès; Hennequin, Christophe; Lehmann-Che, Jacqueline; Massard, Christophe; Millet, Ingrid; Murez, Thibaut; Schlageter, Marie-Hélène; Rouvière, Olivier; Kassab-Chahmi, Diana; Rozet, François; Descotes, Jean-Luc; Rébillard, Xavier

2017-03-07

Prostate cancer stratification is based on tumour size, pretreatment PSA level, and Gleason score, but it remains imperfect. Current research focuses on the discovery and validation of novel prognostic biomarkers to improve the identification of patients at risk of aggressive cancer or of tumour relapse. This systematic review by the Intergroupe Coopérateur Francophone de Recherche en Onco-urologie (ICFuro) analysed new evidence on the analytical validity and clinical validity and utility of six prognostic biomarkers (PHI, 4Kscore, MiPS, GPS, Prolaris, Decipher). All available data for the six biomarkers published between January 2002 and April 2015 were systematically searched and reviewed. The main endpoints were aggressive prostate cancer prediction, additional value compared to classical prognostic parameters, and clinical benefit for patients with localised prostate cancer. The preanalytical and analytical validations were heterogeneous for all tests and often not adequate for the molecular signatures. Each biomarker was studied for specific indications (candidates for a first or second biopsy, and potential candidates for active surveillance, radical prostatectomy, or adjuvant treatment) for which the level of evidence (LOE) was variable. PHI and 4Kscore were the biomarkers with the highest LOE for discriminating aggressive and indolent tumours in different indications. Blood biomarkers (PHI and 4Kscore) have the highest LOE for the prediction of more aggressive prostate cancer and could help clinicians to manage patients with localised prostate cancer. The other biomarkers show a potential prognostic value; however, they should be evaluated in additional studies to confirm their clinical validity. We reviewed studies assessing the value of six prognostic biomarkers for prostate cancer. On the basis of the available evidence, some biomarkers could help in discriminating between aggressive and non-aggressive tumours with an additional value compared to the

Prognostic Value of Echocardiography in Hypertensive Versus Nonhypertensive Participants From the General Population

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Modin, Daniel; Biering-Sørensen, Sofie Reumert; Mogelvang, Rasmus

2018-01-01

Hypertension may be the most significant cardiovascular risk factor. Few studies have assessed the prognostic value of echocardiography in hypertensive individuals. This study examines the incremental prognostic value of adding echocardiographic parameters to established risk factors in individuals...... of echocardiography in predicting cardiovascular outcomes in the general population is altered by hypertension. In hypertensive individuals, left ventricular mass index added incremental prognostic value in addition to established risk factors. In nonhypertensive individuals, global longitudinal strain added...

Micro-level analysis of distributional changes in health care financing in Finland.

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Klavus, J; Häkkinen, U

1998-01-01

In the early 1990s the Finnish economy suffered a severe recession at the same time as health care reforms were taking place. This study examines the effects of these changes on the distribution of contributions to health care financing in relation to household income. Explanations for changes in various indicators of health care expenditure and use during that time are offered. The analysis is based partly on actual income data and partly on simulated data from the base year (1990). It employs methods that allow the estimation of confidence intervals for inequality indices (the Gini coefficient and Kakwani's progressivity index). In spite of the substantial decrease in real incomes during the recession, the distribution of income remained almost unaltered. The share of total health care funding derived from poorer households increased somewhat, due purely to structural changes. The financial plight of the public sector led to the share of total funding from progressive income taxes to decrease, while regressive indirect taxes and direct payments by households contributed more. It seems that, aside from an increased financing burden on poorer households, Finland's health care system has withstood the tremendous changes of the early 1990s fairly well. This is largely attributable to the features of the tax-financed health care system, which apportions the effects of financial and functional disturbances equitably.

Pathohistological classification systems in gastric cancer: diagnostic relevance and prognostic value.

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Berlth, Felix; Bollschweiler, Elfriede; Drebber, Uta; Hoelscher, Arnulf H; Moenig, Stefan

2014-05-21

Several pathohistological classification systems exist for the diagnosis of gastric cancer. Many studies have investigated the correlation between the pathohistological characteristics in gastric cancer and patient characteristics, disease specific criteria and overall outcome. It is still controversial as to which classification system imparts the most reliable information, and therefore, the choice of system may vary in clinical routine. In addition to the most common classification systems, such as the Laurén and the World Health Organization (WHO) classifications, other authors have tried to characterize and classify gastric cancer based on the microscopic morphology and in reference to the clinical outcome of the patients. In more than 50 years of systematic classification of the pathohistological characteristics of gastric cancer, there is no sole classification system that is consistently used worldwide in diagnostics and research. However, several national guidelines for the treatment of gastric cancer refer to the Laurén or the WHO classifications regarding therapeutic decision-making, which underlines the importance of a reliable classification system for gastric cancer. The latest results from gastric cancer studies indicate that it might be useful to integrate DNA- and RNA-based features of gastric cancer into the classification systems to establish prognostic relevance. This article reviews the diagnostic relevance and the prognostic value of different pathohistological classification systems in gastric cancer.

Evaluating Algorithm Performance Metrics Tailored for Prognostics

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National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Prognostics has taken center stage in Condition Based Maintenance (CBM) where it is desired to estimate Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of a system so that remedial...

A molecular prognostic model predicts esophageal squamous cell carcinoma prognosis.

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Hui-Hui Cao

Full Text Available Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC has the highest mortality rates in China. The 5-year survival rate of ESCC remains dismal despite improvements in treatments such as surgical resection and adjuvant chemoradiation, and current clinical staging approaches are limited in their ability to effectively stratify patients for treatment options. The aim of the present study, therefore, was to develop an immunohistochemistry-based prognostic model to improve clinical risk assessment for patients with ESCC.We developed a molecular prognostic model based on the combined expression of axis of epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR, phosphorylated Specificity protein 1 (p-Sp1, and Fascin proteins. The presence of this prognostic model and associated clinical outcomes were analyzed for 130 formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded esophageal curative resection specimens (generation dataset and validated using an independent cohort of 185 specimens (validation dataset.The expression of these three genes at the protein level was used to build a molecular prognostic model that was highly predictive of ESCC survival in both generation and validation datasets (P = 0.001. Regression analysis showed that this molecular prognostic model was strongly and independently predictive of overall survival (hazard ratio = 2.358 [95% CI, 1.391-3.996], P = 0.001 in generation dataset; hazard ratio = 1.990 [95% CI, 1.256-3.154], P = 0.003 in validation dataset. Furthermore, the predictive ability of these 3 biomarkers in combination was more robust than that of each individual biomarker.This technically simple immunohistochemistry-based molecular model accurately predicts ESCC patient survival and thus could serve as a complement to current clinical risk stratification approaches.

Circulating tumor cells and miRNAs as prognostic markers in neuroendocrine neoplasms.

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Zatelli, Maria Chiara; Grossrubatscher, Erika Maria; Guadagno, Elia; Sciammarella, Concetta; Faggiano, Antongiulio; Colao, Annamaria

2017-06-01

The prognosis of neuroendocrine neoplasms (NENs) is widely variable and has been shown to associate with several tissue- and blood-based biomarkers in different settings. The identification of prognostic factors predicting NEN outcome is of paramount importance to select the best clinical management for these patients. Prognostic markers have been intensively investigated, also taking advantage of the most modern techniques, in the perspective of personalized medicine and appropriate resource utilization. This review summarizes the available data on the possible role of circulating tumor cells and microRNAs as prognostic markers in NENs. © 2017 Society for Endocrinology.

Prognostic Impact of DNA-Image-Cytometry in Neuroendocrine (Carcinoid Tumours

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H. Raatz

2004-01-01

Full Text Available Establishing prognosis proves particularly difficult with neuroendocrine tumours (NETs as a benign looking histology can be associated with a malignant behaviour. In order to identify prognostic factors we examined 44 gastrointestinal and pulmonary, paraffin‐embedded NETs histologically and immunohistochemically. DNA‐image‐cytometry was used to examine 40 of these. We found that poor differentiation (corresponding to a Soga and Tazawa type D and infiltrative growth correlated with a poorer prognosis. Moreover, parameters determined by diagnostic DNA cytometry like the 5c‐exceeding rate, the 2c‐deviation index, DNA‐grade of malignancy, DNA‐entropy and the type of DNA histogram were found to be of prognostic relevance. Morphometric parameters like the form factor and the mean nuclear area were relevant for survival, tumour recurrence and metastasis. However, in the multivariate analysis the only independent risk factor was the histological differentiation. The 5c‐exceeding rate is a good objective risk factor, which can be used particularly in cases in which only a fine needle biopsie is available. Direct comparison of the histology and the 5c‐exceeding rate in the multivariate analysis suggests that the 5c‐exceeding rate taken as sole prognostic factor might be of higher prognostic relevance than the histology but larger studies are needed to confirm this.

Histological grading of papillary urothelial carcinoma of the bladder: prognostic value of the 1998 WHO/ISUP classification system and comparison with conventional grading systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Oosterhuis, J. W. A.; Schapers, R. F. M.; Janssen-Heijnen, M. L. G.; Pauwels, R. P. E.; Newling, D. W.; ten Kate, F.

2002-01-01

AIM: To test the prognostic value of the 1998 WHO/ISUP (World Health Organisation/International Society of Urologic Pathology) consensus classification system in Ta papillary urothelial neoplasms of the bladder. METHODS: The histological slides of 322 patients with a primary Ta tumour were

PROGNOSTICAL COMPETENCE OF THE FUTURE TEACHERS-ACTORS: TO THE ISSUE OF THE CONCEPT DEFINITION

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Elena Viktorovna Tsalko

2016-02-01

Full Text Available In this paper on the basis of the notions of competence, forecasting, prognostical competence the author’s definition of future actors-teachers’ prognostical competence is developed. Under prognostic competence of future actors-teachers we understand a special competence that allows the subject, engaged in professional activities as a performer of roles in the theater (movies, TV, as well as performing teaching activities in the field of arts, to receive the necessary anticipatory information about the phenomenon under investigation (on performing roles in the theatre, films, and television, on the learning process and actors-teachers training. Components of prognostical competence as a type of competencies (cognitive, instrumental and operational and motivational-value are singled out. The feature of the future actor-teacher’s professional activities in the context of prognostical competence is viewed. It is the simultaneous solving the artistic-creative, organizational and teaching-upbringing problems.Purpose. The purpose of the paper is the definition of prognostical competence of future teachers-actors.Methodology. In the research the methods of theoretical level are used: comparison, analysis and synthesis, generalization, concretization; analytical methods; idealization and modeling.Result. The result of the research is the development of the author’s concept of «prognostical competence of the future teachers-actors».Practical implications. Application of the results: The results may be applied to the work of teachers-actors’ trainers as well as the researchers in Pedagogy.

Prognostic factors in sensory recovery after digital nerve repair.

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Bulut, Tuğrul; Akgün, Ulaş; Çıtlak, Atilla; Aslan, Cihan; Şener, Ufuk; Şener, Muhittin

2016-01-01

The prognostic factors that affect sensory nerve recovery after digital nerve repair are variable because of nonhomogeneous data, subjective tests, and different assessment/scoring methods. The aim of this study was to evaluate the success of sensory nerve recovery after digital nerve repair and to investigate the prognostic factors in sensorial healing. Ninety-six digital nerve repairs of 63 patients were retrospectively evaluated. All nerves were repaired with end-to-end neurorraphy. The static two-point discrimination (s2PD) and Semmes Weinstein monofilament (SWM) tests were performed to evaluate sensory recovery. The association between prognostic factors such as gender, age, involved digit, time from injury to repair, length of follow-up, smoking, concomitant injuries, type of injury, and sensory recovery results were assessed. The s2PD test demonstrated excellent results in 26 nerves (27%), good results in 61 nerves (64%), and poor results in 9 nerves (9%). The results of the SWM test according to Imai classification showed that 31 nerves (32%) were normal, light touch was diminished in 38 nerves (40%), protective sensation was diminished in 17 nerves (18%), loss of protective sensation occurred in 5 nerves (5%), and 5 nerves (5%) were anesthetic. There was a negative relationship between age, smoking, concomitant injuries, and sensory recovery. Our results demonstrate that concomitant tendon, bone and vascular injuries, older age, and smoking were associated with worse sensory nerve recovery results. However, all digital nerve injuries should be repaired, regardless of these prognostic factors.

Clonal diversity analysis using SNP microarray: a new prognostic tool for chronic lymphocytic leukemia.

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Zhang, Linsheng; Znoyko, Iya; Costa, Luciano J; Conlin, Laura K; Daber, Robert D; Self, Sally E; Wolff, Daynna J

2011-12-01

of genomic alterations and mosaic distribution of clones can be used to assess apparent clonal evolution via analysis of clonal diversity. Since clonal evolution in CLL is strongly correlated with disease progression, whole genome SNP microarray analysis provides a new comprehensive and reliable prognostic tool for CLL patients. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prognostic classification index in Iranian colorectal cancer patients: Survival tree analysis

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Amal Saki Malehi

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Aims: The aim of this study was to determine the prognostic index for separating homogenous subgroups in colorectal cancer (CRC patients based on clinicopathological characteristics using survival tree analysis. Methods: The current study was conducted at the Research Center of Gastroenterology and Liver Disease, Shahid Beheshti Medical University in Tehran, between January 2004 and January 2009. A total of 739 patients who already have been diagnosed with CRC based on pathologic report were enrolled. The data included demographic and clinical-pathological characteristic of patients. Tree-structured survival analysis based on a recursive partitioning algorithm was implemented to evaluate prognostic factors. The probability curves were calculated according to the Kaplan-Meier method, and the hazard ratio was estimated as an interest effect size. Result: There were 526 males (71.2% of these patients. The mean survival time (from diagnosis time was 42.46± (3.4. Survival tree identified three variables as main prognostic factors and based on their four prognostic subgroups was constructed. The log-rank test showed good separation of survival curves. Patients with Stage I-IIIA and treated with surgery as the first treatment showed low risk (median = 34 months whereas patients with stage IIIB, IV, and more than 68 years have the worse survival outcome (median = 9.5 months. Conclusion: Constructing the prognostic classification index via survival tree can aid the researchers to assess interaction between clinical variables and determining the cumulative effect of these variables on survival outcome.

The Prognostic and Predictive Value of Soluble Type IV Collagen in Colorectal Cancer

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Rolff, Hans Christian; Christensen, Ib Jarle; Vainer, Ben

2016-01-01

PURPOSE: To investigate the prognostic and predictive biomarker value of type IV collagen in colorectal cancer. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: Retrospective evaluation of two independent cohorts of patients with colorectal cancer included prospectively in 2004-2005 (training set) and 2006-2008 (validation....... RESULTS: High levels of type IV collagen showed independent prognostic significance in both cohorts with hazard ratios (HRs; for a one-unit change on the log base 2 scale) of 2.25 [95% confidence intervals (CIs), 1.78-2.84; P ... and validation set, respectively. The prognostic impact was present both in patients with metastatic and nonmetastatic disease. The predictive value of the marker was investigated in stage II and III patients. In the training set, type IV collagen was prognostic both in the subsets of patients receiving...

Design, Development, and Testing of a UAV Hardware-in-the-Loop Testbed for Aviation and Airspace Prognostics Research

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Kulkarni, Chetan; Teubert, Chris; Gorospe, George; Burgett, Drew; Quach, Cuong C.; Hogge, Edward

2016-01-01

The airspace is becoming more and more complicated, and will continue to do so in the future with the integration of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), autonomy, spacecraft, other forms of aviation technology into the airspace. The new technology and complexity increases the importance and difficulty of safety assurance. Additionally, testing new technologies on complex aviation systems & systems of systems can be very difficult, expensive, and sometimes unsafe in real life scenarios. Prognostic methodology provides an estimate of the health and risks of a component, vehicle, or airspace and knowledge of how that will change over time. That measure is especially useful in safety determination, mission planning, and maintenance scheduling. The developed testbed will be used to validate prediction algorithms for the real-time safety monitoring of the National Airspace System (NAS) and the prediction of unsafe events. The framework injects flight related anomalies related to ground systems, routing, airport congestion, etc. to test and verify algorithms for NAS safety. In our research work, we develop a live, distributed, hardware-in-the-loop testbed for aviation and airspace prognostics along with exploring further research possibilities to verify and validate future algorithms for NAS safety. The testbed integrates virtual aircraft using the X-Plane simulator and X-PlaneConnect toolbox, UAVs using onboard sensors and cellular communications, and hardware in the loop components. In addition, the testbed includes an additional research framework to support and simplify future research activities. It enables safe, accurate, and inexpensive experimentation and research into airspace and vehicle prognosis that would not have been possible otherwise. This paper describes the design, development, and testing of this system. Software reliability, safety and latency are some of the critical design considerations in development of the testbed. Integration of HITL elements in

Expression of CPEB4 in invasive ductal breast carcinoma and its prognostic significance

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Sun HT

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Hao-Ting Sun,1,2,* Xin Wen,3,* Tian Han,4,* Zhen-Hua Liu,5 Shao-Bo Li,1 Ji-Gang Wang,1 Xiu-Ping Liu61Department of Pathology, School of Basic Medical Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, 2Department of General Surgery, Huashan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, 3Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Medicine, Canton, Guangdong Province, 4Key Lab of Myopia, Ministry of Health, Department of Ophthalmology, Eye & ENT Hospital of Fudan University, Shanghai, 5Urology Department and Institute of Urology, Peking University First Hospital, Peking University, Beijing, 6Department of Pathology, The Fifth People’s Hospital of Shanghai, Fudan University, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China*These authors contributed equally to this workAims: Cytoplasmic polyadenylation element binding proteins (CPEBs are RNA-binding proteins that regulate translation by inducing cytoplasmic polyadenylation. CPEB4 has been reported in association with tumor growth, vascularization, and invasion in several cancers. To date, the expression of CPEB4 with clinical prognosis of breast cancer was never reported before. We aim to investigate the expression of CPEB4 and its prognostic significance in invasive ductal breast carcinoma.Methods: Immunohistochemical staining of CPEB4 and estrogen receptor, progesterone receptor, and human epidermal growth factor receptor was performed in 107 invasive ductal carcinoma (IDC samples, and prognostic significance was evaluated.Results: High expression of CPEB4 was observed in 48.6% of IDC samples. Elevated CPEB4 expression was possibly related to increased histological grading (P=0.037 and N stage (P<0.001. Patients with high expression of CPEB4 showed shorter overall survival (P=0.001. High CPEB4 expression was an independent prognostic factor for overall survival (P=0.022, hazard ratio =4.344, 95% confidence interval =1.235–15

Implementing an overdose education and naloxone distribution program in a health system.

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Devries, Jennifer; Rafie, Sally; Polston, Gregory

To design and implement a health system-wide program increasing provision of take-home naloxone in patients at risk for opioid overdose, with the downstream aim of reducing fatalities. The program includes health care professional education and guidelines, development, and dissemination of patient education materials, electronic health record changes to promote naloxone prescriptions, and availability of naloxone in pharmacies. Academic health system, San Diego, California. University of California, San Diego Health (UCSDH), offers both inpatient and outpatient primary care and specialty services with 563 beds spanning 2 hospitals and 6 pharmacies. UCSDH is part of the University of California health system, and it serves as the county's safety net hospital. In January 2016, a multisite academic health system initiated a system-wide overdose education and naloxone distribution program to prevent opioid overdose and opioid overdose-related deaths. An interdisciplinary, interdepartmental team came together to develop and implement the program. To strengthen institutional support, naloxone prescribing guidelines were developed and approved for the health system. Education on naloxone for physicians, pharmacists, and nurses was provided through departmental trainings, bulletins, and e-mail notifications. Alerts in the electronic health record and preset naloxone orders facilitated co-prescribing of naloxone with opioid prescriptions. Electronic health record reports captured naloxone prescriptions ordered. Summary reports on the electronic health record measured naloxone reminder alerts and response rates. Since the start of the program, the health system has trained 252 physicians, pharmacists, and nurses in overdose education and take-home naloxone. There has been an increase in the number of prescriptions for naloxone from a baseline of 4.5 per month to an average of 46 per month during the 3 months following full implementation of the program including

Waiting time to radiotherapy as a prognostic factor for glioblastoma patients in a scenario of medical disparities

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Loureiro, Luiz Victor Maia; Callegaro-Filho, Donato; Koch, Ludmila de Oliveira; Weltman, Eduardo; Victor, Elivane da Silva; Malheiros, Suzana Maria Fleury, E-mail: lvmaia@gmail.com [Hospital Israelita Albert Einstein, Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Santos, Adrialdo Jose; Borges, Lia Raquel Rodrigues; Segreto, Roberto Araujo [Universidade Federal de Sao Paulo (UNIFESP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Escola paulista de Medicina; Pontes, Luciola de Barros [Hospital do Coracao, Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Dept. de Oncologia

2015-02-15

Objective: to evaluate the effect of waiting time (WT) to radiotherapy (RT) on overall survival (OS) of glioblastoma (GBM) patients as a reliable prognostic variable in Brazil, a scenario of medical disparities. Method: retrospective study of 115 GBM patients from two different health-care institutions (one public and one private) in Brazil who underwent post-operative RT. Results: Median WT to RT was 6 weeks (range,1.3-17.6). The median OS for WT ≤ 6 weeks was 13.5 months (95%CI , 9.1-17.9) and for WT . 6 weeks was 14.2 months (95%CI, 11.2-17.2) (HR 1.165, 95%CI 0.770-1.762; p = 0.470). In the multivariate analysis, the variables associated with survival were KPS (p , 0.001), extent of resection (p = 0.009) and the adjuvant treatment (p = 0.001). The KPS interacted with WT to RT (HR 0.128, 95%CI 0.034-0.476; p = 0.002), showing that the benefit of KPS on OS depends on the WT to RT. Conclusion: no prognostic impact of WT to RT could be detected on the OS. Although there are no data to ensure that delays to RT are tolerable, we may reassure patients that the time-length to initiate treatment does not seem to influence the control of the disease, particularly in face of other prognostic factors. (author)

Current status of accurate prognostic awareness in advanced/terminally ill cancer patients: Systematic review and meta-regression analysis.

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Chen, Chen Hsiu; Kuo, Su Ching; Tang, Siew Tzuh

2017-05-01

No systematic meta-analysis is available on the prevalence of cancer patients' accurate prognostic awareness and differences in accurate prognostic awareness by publication year, region, assessment method, and service received. To examine the prevalence of advanced/terminal cancer patients' accurate prognostic awareness and differences in accurate prognostic awareness by publication year, region, assessment method, and service received. Systematic review and meta-analysis. MEDLINE, Embase, The Cochrane Library, CINAHL, and PsycINFO were systematically searched on accurate prognostic awareness in adult patients with advanced/terminal cancer (1990-2014). Pooled prevalences were calculated for accurate prognostic awareness by a random-effects model. Differences in weighted estimates of accurate prognostic awareness were compared by meta-regression. In total, 34 articles were retrieved for systematic review and meta-analysis. At best, only about half of advanced/terminal cancer patients accurately understood their prognosis (49.1%; 95% confidence interval: 42.7%-55.5%; range: 5.4%-85.7%). Accurate prognostic awareness was independent of service received and publication year, but highest in Australia, followed by East Asia, North America, and southern Europe and the United Kingdom (67.7%, 60.7%, 52.8%, and 36.0%, respectively; p = 0.019). Accurate prognostic awareness was higher by clinician assessment than by patient report (63.2% vs 44.5%, p cancer patients accurately understood their prognosis, with significant variations by region and assessment method. Healthcare professionals should thoroughly assess advanced/terminal cancer patients' preferences for prognostic information and engage them in prognostic discussion early in the cancer trajectory, thus facilitating their accurate prognostic awareness and the quality of end-of-life care decision-making.

Prognostic significance of IDH 1 mutation in patients with glioblastoma multiforme.

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Khan, Inamullah; Waqas, Muhammad; Shamim, Muhammad Shahzad

2017-05-01

Focus of brain tumour research is shifting towards tumour genesis and genetics, and possible development of individualized treatment plans. Genetic analysis shows recurrent mutation in isocitrate dehydrogenase (IDH1) gene in most Glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) cells. In this review we evaluated the prognostic significance of IDH 1 mutation on the basis of published evidence. Multiple retrospective clinical analyses correlate the presence of IDH1 mutation in GBM with good prognostic outcomes compared to wild-type IDH1. A systematic review reported similar results. Based on the review of current literature IDH1 mutation is an independent factor for longer overall survival (OS) and progression free survival (PFS) in GBM patients when compared to wild-type IDH1. The prognostic significance opens up new avenues for treatment.

Updating and prospective validation of a prognostic model for high sickness absence

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Roelen, C.A.M.; Heymans, M.W.; Twisk, J.W.R.; van Rhenen, W.; Pallesen, S.; Bjorvatn, B.; Moen, B.E.; Mageroy, N.

2015-01-01

Objectives To further develop and validate a Dutch prognostic model for high sickness absence (SA). Methods Three-wave longitudinal cohort study of 2,059 Norwegian nurses. The Dutch prognostic model was used to predict high SA among Norwegian nurses at wave 2. Subsequently, the model was updated by

Comorbidity is an independent prognostic factor in women with uterine corpus cancer

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Noer, Mette C; Sperling, Cecilie; Christensen, Ib J

2014-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether comorbidity independently affects overall survival in women with uterine corpus cancer. DESIGN: Cohort study. SETTING: Denmark. STUDY POPULATION: A total of 4244 patients registered in the Danish Gynecologic Cancer database with uterine corpus cancer from 1 January....... RESULTS: Univariate survival analysis showed a significant (p independent prognostic factor with hazard ratios...... ranging from 1.27 to 1.42 in mild, 1.69 to 1.74 in moderate, and 1.72 to 2.48 in severe comorbidity. Performance status was independently associated to overall survival and was found to slightly reduce the prognostic impact of comorbidity. CONCLUSION: Comorbidity is an independent prognostic factor...

Model Adaptation for Prognostics in a Particle Filtering Framework

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Bhaskar Saha

2011-01-01

Full Text Available One of the key motivating factors for using particle filters for prognostics is the ability to include model parameters as part of the state vector to be estimated. This performs model adaptation in conjunction with state tracking, and thus, produces a tuned model that can used for long term predictions. This feature of particle filters works in most part due to the fact that they are not subject to the “curse of dimensionality”, i.e. the exponential growth of computational complexity with state dimension. However, in practice, this property holds for “well-designed” particle filters only as dimensionality increases. This paper explores the notion of wellness of design in the context of predicting remaining useful life for individual discharge cycles of Li-ion and Li-Polymer batteries. Prognostic metrics are used to analyze the tradeoff between different model designs and prediction performance. Results demonstrate how sensitivity analysis may be used to arrive at a well-designed prognostic model that can take advantage of the model adaptation properties of a particle filter.

Prognostic Factors of Uterine Serous Carcinoma-A Multicenter Study.

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Zhong, Xiaozhu; Wang, Jianliu; Kaku, Tengen; Wang, Zhiqi; Li, Xiaoping; Wei, Lihui

2018-04-04

The prognostic factors of uterine serous carcinoma (USC) vary among studies, and there is no report of Chinese USC patients. The aim of this study was to investigate the clinicopathological characteristics and prognostic factors in Chinese patients with USC. Patients with USC from 13 authoritative university hospitals in China and treated between 2004 and 2014 were retrospectively reviewed. Three-year disease-free survival rate (DFSR), cumulative recurrence, and cumulative mortality were estimated by Kaplan-Meier analyses and log-rank tests. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to model the association of potential prognostic factors with clinical outcomes. Data of a total of 241 patients were reviewed. The median follow-up was 26 months (range, 1-128 months). Median age was 60 years (range, 39-84 years), and 58.0% had stages I-II disease. The 3-year DFSR and cumulative recurrence were 46.8% and 27.7%. Advanced stage (III and IV) (P = 0.004), myometrial invasion (P = 0.001), adnexal involvement (P USC. Prospective studies are needed to confirm these results.

Model Adaptation for Prognostics in a Particle Filtering Framework

Science.gov (United States)

Saha, Bhaskar; Goebel, Kai Frank

2011-01-01

One of the key motivating factors for using particle filters for prognostics is the ability to include model parameters as part of the state vector to be estimated. This performs model adaptation in conjunction with state tracking, and thus, produces a tuned model that can used for long term predictions. This feature of particle filters works in most part due to the fact that they are not subject to the "curse of dimensionality", i.e. the exponential growth of computational complexity with state dimension. However, in practice, this property holds for "well-designed" particle filters only as dimensionality increases. This paper explores the notion of wellness of design in the context of predicting remaining useful life for individual discharge cycles of Li-ion batteries. Prognostic metrics are used to analyze the tradeoff between different model designs and prediction performance. Results demonstrate how sensitivity analysis may be used to arrive at a well-designed prognostic model that can take advantage of the model adaptation properties of a particle filter.

Staff and bed distribution in public sector mental health services in the Eastern Cape Province, South Africa

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Kiran Sukeri

2014-11-01

Full Text Available Background. The Eastern Cape Province of South Africa is a resource-limited province with a fragmented mental health service.  Objective. To determine the current context of public sector mental health services in terms of staff and bed distribution, and how this corresponds to the population distribution in the province. Method. In this descriptive cross-sectional study, an audit questionnaire was submitted to all public sector mental health facilities. Norms and indicators were calculated at provincial and district level. This article investigates staff and bed distribution only. Results. Results demonstrated that within the province, only three of its seven districts have acute beds above the national baseline norm requirement of 13/100 000. The private mental health sector provides approximately double the number of medium- to long-stay beds available in the public sector. Only two regions have staff/population ratios above the baseline norm of 20/100 000. However, there are significant differences in this ratio among specific staff categories. There is an inequitable distribution of resources between the eastern and western regions of the province. When compared with the western regions, the eastern regions have poorer access to mental health facilities, human resources and non-governmental organisations.  Conclusion. Owing to the inequitable distribution of resources, the provincial authorities urgently need to develop an equitable model of service delivery. The province has to address the absence of a reliable mental health information system.

A self-scaling, distributed information architecture for public health, research, and clinical care.

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McMurry, Andrew J; Gilbert, Clint A; Reis, Ben Y; Chueh, Henry C; Kohane, Isaac S; Mandl, Kenneth D

2007-01-01

This study sought to define a scalable architecture to support the National Health Information Network (NHIN). This architecture must concurrently support a wide range of public health, research, and clinical care activities. The architecture fulfils five desiderata: (1) adopt a distributed approach to data storage to protect privacy, (2) enable strong institutional autonomy to engender participation, (3) provide oversight and transparency to ensure patient trust, (4) allow variable levels of access according to investigator needs and institutional policies, (5) define a self-scaling architecture that encourages voluntary regional collaborations that coalesce to form a nationwide network. Our model has been validated by a large-scale, multi-institution study involving seven medical centers for cancer research. It is the basis of one of four open architectures developed under funding from the Office of the National Coordinator of Health Information Technology, fulfilling the biosurveillance use case defined by the American Health Information Community. The model supports broad applicability for regional and national clinical information exchanges. This model shows the feasibility of an architecture wherein the requirements of care providers, investigators, and public health authorities are served by a distributed model that grants autonomy, protects privacy, and promotes participation.

Mode of detection: an independent prognostic factor for women with breast cancer.

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Hofvind, Solveig; Holen, Åsne; Román, Marta; Sebuødegård, Sofie; Puig-Vives, Montse; Akslen, Lars

2016-06-01

To investigate breast cancer survival and risk of breast cancer death by detection mode (screen-detected, interval, and detected outside the screening programme), adjusting for prognostic and predictive tumour characteristics. Information about detection mode, prognostic (age, tumour size, histologic grade, lymph node status) and predictive factors (molecular subtypes based on immunohistochemical analyses of hormone receptor status (estrogen and progesterone) and Her2 status) were available for 8344 women in Norway aged 50-69 at diagnosis of breast cancer, 2005-2011. A total of 255 breast cancer deaths were registered by the end of 2011. Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate six years breast cancer specific survival and Cox proportional hazard model to estimate hazard ratio (HR) for breast cancer death by detection mode, adjusting for prognostic and predictive factors. Women with screen-detected cancer had favourable prognostic and predictive tumour characteristics compared with interval cancers and those detected outside the screening programme. The favourable characteristics were present for screen-detected cancers, also within the subtypes. Adjusted HR of dying from breast cancer was two times higher for women with symptomatic breast cancer (interval or outside the screening), using screen-detected tumours as the reference. Detection mode is an independent prognostic factor for women diagnosed with breast cancer. Information on detection mode might be relevant for patient management to avoid overtreatment. © The Author(s) 2015.

Molecular profiling identifies prognostic markers of stage IA lung adenocarcinoma.

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Zhang, Jie; Shao, Jinchen; Zhu, Lei; Zhao, Ruiying; Xing, Jie; Wang, Jun; Guo, Xiaohui; Tu, Shichun; Han, Baohui; Yu, Keke

2017-09-26

We previously showed that different pathologic subtypes were associated with different prognostic values in patients with stage IA lung adenocarcinoma (AC). We hypothesize that differential gene expression profiles of different subtypes may be valuable factors for prognosis in stage IA lung adenocarcinoma. We performed microarray gene expression profiling on tumor tissues micro-dissected from patients with acinar and solid predominant subtypes of stage IA lung adenocarcinoma. These patients had undergone a lobectomy and mediastinal lymph node dissection at the Shanghai Chest Hospital, Shanghai, China in 2012. No patient had preoperative treatment. We performed the Gene Set Enrichment Analysis (GSEA) analysis to look for gene expression signatures associated with tumor subtypes. The histologic subtypes of all patients were classified according to the 2015 WHO lung Adenocarcinoma classification. We found that patients with the solid predominant subtype are enriched for genes involved in RNA polymerase activity as well as inactivation of the p53 pathway. Further, we identified a list of genes that may serve as prognostic markers for stage IA lung adenocarcinoma. Validation in the TCGA database shows that these genes are correlated with survival, suggesting that they are novel prognostic factors for stage IA lung adenocarcinoma. In conclusion, we have uncovered novel prognostic factors for stage IA lung adenocarcinoma using gene expression profiling in combination with histopathology subtyping.

Prognostic Factors and Treatment Results After Bleomycin, Etoposide, and Cisplatin in Germ Cell Cancer

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kier, Maria G; Lauritsen, Jakob; Mortensen, Mette S

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND: First-line treatment for patients with disseminated germ cell cancer (GCC) is bleomycin, etoposide, and cisplatin (BEP). A prognostic classification of patients receiving chemotherapy was published by the International Germ Cell Cancer Collaborative Group (IGCCCG) in 1997, but only...... a small proportion of the patients received BEP. OBJECTIVE: To estimate survival probabilities after BEP, evaluate the IGCCCG prognostic classification, and propose new prognostic factors for outcome. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Of a Danish population-based cohort of GCC patients (1984-2007), 1889...... received first-line BEP, with median follow-up of 15 yr. Covariates evaluated as prognostic factors were age, year of treatment, primary site, non-pulmonary visceral metastases, pulmonary metastases, and tumor markers. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Outcomes measured were 5-yr progression...

Identification of potential prognostic microRNA biomarkers for predicting survival in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

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Liao X

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Xiwen Liao,1 Guangzhi Zhu,1 Rui Huang,2 Chengkun Yang,1 Xiangkun Wang,1 Ketuan Huang,1 Tingdong Yu,1 Chuangye Han,1 Hao Su,1 Tao Peng1 1Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University, Nanning, People’s Republic of China; 2Department of Hematology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University, Nanning, People’s Republic of China Background: The aim of the present study was to identify potential prognostic microRNA (miRNA biomarkers for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC prognosis prediction based on a dataset from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA. Materials and methods: A miRNA sequencing dataset and corresponding clinical parameters of HCC were obtained from TCGA. Genome-wide univariate Cox regression analysis was used to screen prognostic differentially expressed miRNAs (DEMs, and multivariable Cox regression analysis was used for prognostic signature construction. Comprehensive survival analysis was performed to evaluate the prognostic value of the prognostic signature. Results: Five miRNAs were regarded as prognostic DEMs and used for prognostic signature construction. The five-DEM prognostic signature performed well in prognosis prediction (adjusted P < 0.0001, adjusted hazard ratio = 2.249, 95% confidence interval =1.491–3.394, and time-dependent receiver–operating characteristic (ROC analysis showed an area under the curve (AUC of 0.765, 0.745, 0.725, and 0.687 for 1-, 2-, 3-, and 5-year HCC overall survival (OS prediction, respectively. Comprehensive survival analysis of the prognostic signature suggests that the risk score model could serve as an independent factor of HCC and perform better in prognosis prediction than other traditional clinical indicators. Functional assessment of the target genes of hsa-mir-139 and hsa-mir-5003 indicates that they were significantly enriched in multiple biological processes and pathways, including cell proliferation and cell migration

Readability levels of health pamphlets distributed in hospitals and health centres in Athens, Greece.

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Kondilis, B K; Akrivos, P D; Sardi, T A; Soteriades, E S; Falagas, M E

2010-10-01

Health literacy is important in the medical and social sciences due to its impact on behavioural and health outcomes. Nevertheless, little is known about it in Greece, including patients' level of understanding health brochures and pamphlets distributed in Greek hospitals and clinics. Observational study in the greater metropolitan area of Athens, Greece. Pamphlets and brochures written in the Greek language were collected from 17 hospitals and healthcare centres between the spring and autumn of 2006. Readability of pamphlets using the Flesch-Kincaid, Simple Measure of Gobbledygook (SMOG) and Fog methods was calculated based on a Greek readability software. Out of 70 pamphlets collected from 17 hospitals, 37 pamphlets met the criteria for the study. The average readability level of all scanned pamphlets was ninth to 10th grade, corresponding to a readability level of 'average'. A highly significant difference (PPamphlets from private hospitals were one grade more difficult than those from public hospitals. Approximately 43.7% of the Greek population aged ≥20 years would not be able to comprehend the available pamphlets, which were found to have an average readability level of ninth to 10th grade. Further research examining readability levels in the context of health literacy in Greece is warranted. This effort paves the way for additional research in the field of readability levels of health pamphlets in the Greek language, the sources of health information, and the level of understanding of key health messages by the population. Copyright © 2010 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Benefit distribution of social health insurance: evidence from china's urban resident basic medical insurance.

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Pan, Jay; Tian, Sen; Zhou, Qin; Han, Wei

2016-09-01

Equity is one of the essential objectives of the social health insurance. This article evaluates the benefit distribution of the China's Urban Residents' Basic Medical Insurance (URBMI), covering 300 million urban populations. Using the URBMI Household Survey data fielded between 2007 and 2011, we estimate the benefit distribution by the two-part model, and find that the URBMI beneficiaries from lower income groups benefited less than that of higher income groups. In other words, government subsidy that was supposed to promote the universal coverage of health care flew more to the rich. Our study provides new evidence on China's health insurance system reform, and it bears meaningful policy implication for other developing countries facing similar challenges on the way to universal coverage of health insurance. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Frailty in Chinese Peritoneal Dialysis Patients: Prevalence and Prognostic Significance

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Jack Kit-Chung Ng

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Background/Aims: Previous studies showed that frailty is prevalent in both pre-dialysis and dialysis patients. However, the prevalence and prognostic implication of frailty in Chinese peritoneal dialysis (PD patients remain unknown. Methods: We used a validated questionnaire to determine the Frailty Score of 193 unselected prevalent PD patients. All patients were then followed for 2 years for their need of hospitalization and mortality. Results: Amongst the 193 patients, 134 (69.4% met the criteria of being frail. Frailty Score significantly correlated with Charlson's comorbidity score (r = 0.40, p Conclusions: Frailty is prevalent among Chinese PD patients. Frail PD patients have a high risk of requiring hospitalization and their hospital stay tends to be prolonged. Early identification may allow timely intervention to prevent adverse health outcomes in this group of patients.

Short and long term prognostic importance of regional dyskinesia versus akinesia in acute myocardial infarction

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kjøller, E; Køber, L; Jørgensen, S

2002-01-01

outcome (up to seven years) with respect to mortality. RESULTS: Dyskinesia occurred in 673 patients (10.8%). In multivariate analysis, WMI was an important prognostic factor, with a relative risk of 2.4 (95% confidence interval (CI), 2.2 to 2.7), while dyskinesia had no independent long term prognostic...... information, but the presence of dyskinesia only has prognostic importance for the first 30 days.......BACKGROUND: The prognostic importance of dyskinesia after acute myocardial infarction is unknown, and recommendations have been made that dyskinesia be included in calculations of wall motion index (WMI). OBJECTIVE: To determine whether it is necessary to distinguish between dyskinesia and akinesia...

Functional decline in nursing home residents: A prognostic study.

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Javier Jerez-Roig

Full Text Available To verify the probability of maintaining functional capacity in basic activities of daily living and identify the prognostic factors of functional decline in institutionalized older adults.A longitudinal study is presented herein, with 5 waves every 6 months, throughout 2 years (2013-2015, conducted with individuals ≥60 years old in 10 nursing homes in the city of Natal-RN (Brazil. Functional capacity was assessed by the items 'eating', 'personal hygiene', 'dressing', 'bathing', 'transferring', 'toileting' and 'walking', through a 5-item Likert scale. Sociodemographic, institution-related and health-related variables were considered to establish the baseline. Time dependent variables included continence decline, cognitive decline, increase in the number of medication, and incidences of falls, hospitalizations and fractures. The actuarial method, the log-rank test and Cox's regression were applied as statistical methods.The cumulative probability of functional maintenance was 78.2% (CI 95%: 72.8-82.7%, 65.1% (CI 95%: 58.9-70.5%, 53.5% (CI 95%: 47.2-59.5% and 44.0% (CI 95%: 37.7-50.2% at 6, 12, 18 and 24 months, respectively. Predicting factors for functional decline were: severe cognitive impairment (HR = 1.96; p = 0.001, continence decline (HR = 1.85; p = 0.002 and incidence of hospitalizations (HR = 1.62; p = 0.020, adjusted by the incidence of depression, age, education level, presence of chronic diseases and low weight.The cumulative probability of maintaining functional capacity in institutionalized older adults was only 44% at the 2-year follow-up. Prognostic factors for functional decline included severe cognitive impairment, continence decline and incidence of hospitalizations.

Prognostic Gene Expression Profiles in Breast Cancer

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Kristina Pilekær

Each year approximately 4,800 Danish women are diagnosed with breast cancer. Several clinical and pathological factors are used as prognostic and predictive markers to categorize the patients into groups of high or low risk. Around 90% of all patients are allocated to the high risk group...... clinical courses, and they may be useful as novel prognostic biomarkers in breast cancer. The aim of the present project was to predict the development of metastasis in lymph node negative breast cancer patients by RNA profiling. We collected and analyzed 82 primary breast tumors from patients who...... and the time of event. Previous findings have shown that high expression of the lncRNA HOTAIR is correlated with poor survival in breast cancer. We validated this finding by demonstrating that high HOTAIR expression in our primary tumors was significantly associated with worse prognosis independent...

Evaluating Prognostics Performance for Algorithms Incorporating Uncertainty Estimates

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National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Uncertainty Representation and Management (URM) are an integral part of the prognostic system development.1As capabilities of prediction algorithms evolve, research...

Systematic review of prognostic factors predicting outcome in non-surgically treated patients with sciatica.

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Verwoerd, A J H; Luijsterburg, P A J; Lin, C W C; Jacobs, W C H; Koes, B W; Verhagen, A P

2013-09-01

Identification of prognostic factors for surgery in patients with sciatica is important to be able to predict surgery in an early stage. Identification of prognostic factors predicting persistent pain, disability and recovery are important for better understanding of the clinical course, to inform patient and physician and support decision making. Consequently, we aimed to systematically review prognostic factors predicting outcome in non-surgically treated patients with sciatica. A search of Medline, Embase, Web of Science and Cinahl, up to March 2012 was performed for prospective cohort studies on prognostic factors for non-surgically treated sciatica. Two reviewers independently selected studies for inclusion and assessed the risk of bias. Outcomes were pain, disability, recovery and surgery. A best evidence synthesis was carried out in order to assess and summarize the data. The initial search yielded 4392 articles of which 23 articles reporting on 14 original cohorts met the inclusion criteria. High clinical, methodological and statistical heterogeneity among studies was found. Reported evidence regarding prognostic factors predicting the outcome in sciatica is limited. The majority of factors that have been evaluated, e.g., age, body mass index, smoking and sensory disturbance, showed no association with outcome. The only positive association with strong evidence was found for leg pain intensity at baseline as prognostic factor for subsequent surgery. © 2013 European Federation of International Association for the Study of Pain Chapters.

Prognostic significance of anaplasia and angiogenesis in childhood medulloblastoma: a pediatric oncology group study.

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Ozer, Erdener; Sarialioglu, Faik; Cetingoz, Riza; Yüceer, Nurullah; Cakmakci, Handan; Ozkal, Sermin; Olgun, Nur; Uysal, Kamer; Corapcioglu, Funda; Canda, Serefettin

2004-01-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate whether quantitative assessment of cytologic anaplasia and angiogenesis may predict the clinical prognosis in medulloblastoma and stratify the patients to avoid both undertreatment and overtreatment. Medulloblastomas from 23 patients belonging to the Pediatric Oncology Group were evaluated with respect to some prognostic variables, including histologic assessment of nodularity and desmoplasia, grading of anaplasia, measurement of nuclear size, mitotic cell count, quantification of angiogenesis, including vascular surface density (VSD) and microvessel number (NVES), and immunohistochemical scoring of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) expression. Univariate and multivariate analyses for prognostic indicators for survival were performed. Univariate analysis revealed that extensive nodularity was a significant favorable prognostic factor, whereas the presence of anaplasia, increased nuclear size, mitotic rate, VSD, and NVES were significant unfavorable prognostic factors. Using multivariate analysis, increased nuclear size was found to be an independent unfavorable prognostic factor for survival. Neither the presence of desmoplasia nor VEGF expression was significantly related to patient survival. Although care must be taken not to overstate the importance of the results of this single-institution preliminary report, pathologic grading of medulloblastomas with respect to grading of anaplasia and quantification of nodularity, nuclear size, and microvessel profiles may be clinically useful for the treatment of medulloblastomas. Further validation of the independent prognostic significance of nuclear size in stratifying patients is required.

Prognostic value of lymphoma-specific S-phase fraction compared with that of other cell proliferation markers

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Holte, H.; Kvaloey, S. [Dept. of Oncology, Univ. of Oslo (Norway); Suo Zhenhe; Langholm, R. [Dept. of Pathology, Univ. of Oslo (Norway); Smeland, E.B. [Dept. of Immunology, Univ. of Oslo (Norway); Stokke, T. [Dept. of Biophysics, Univ. of Oslo (Norway)

1999-11-01

The proliferation-associated antigens Ki67 (immunohistochemistry) and proliferative cell nuclear antigen (PCNA) (immunohistochemistry and immunoblotting) were analysed together with DNA synthesis ({sup 3}H-thymidine incorporation) and cell-cycle distribution (tumour-specific S-phase fraction determined by flow cytometry) in lymph node suspensions from 63 patients with newly diagnosed B-Cell non-Hodgkin`s lymphomas. Details of clinical parameters, treatment and patient outcome were available for all patients, and retrospectively analysed. Of the proliferation-associated parameters, only high S-phase fraction (p < 0.00001) and high PCNA expression by immunoblotting (p=0.012) were predictive of a poor prognosis. Of the conventional parameters, high-grade malignancy, high International Prognostic Index (IPI) score, bulky disease and presence of B symptoms predicted a patient for poor survival. High S-phase fraction was predictive of a short survival for the low-grade lymphomas analyses separately (p < 0.00001), as well as for patients treated with an Adriamycin- and a non-Adriamycin-containing regimen (p < 0.005 for both groups). In a multivariate analysis, S-phase fraction (p=0.00006), IPI score (p=0.015) and B symptoms (p=0.017) had independent prognostic values, but not histological grade. (orig.)

Prognostic value of lymphoma-specific S-phase fraction compared with that of other cell proliferation markers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holte, H.; Kvaloey, S.; Suo Zhenhe; Langholm, R.; Smeland, E.B.; Stokke, T.

1999-01-01

The proliferation-associated antigens Ki67 (immunohistochemistry) and proliferative cell nuclear antigen (PCNA) (immunohistochemistry and immunoblotting) were analysed together with DNA synthesis ( 3 H-thymidine incorporation) and cell-cycle distribution (tumour-specific S-phase fraction determined by flow cytometry) in lymph node suspensions from 63 patients with newly diagnosed B-Cell non-Hodgkin's lymphomas. Details of clinical parameters, treatment and patient outcome were available for all patients, and retrospectively analysed. Of the proliferation-associated parameters, only high S-phase fraction (p < 0.00001) and high PCNA expression by immunoblotting (p=0.012) were predictive of a poor prognosis. Of the conventional parameters, high-grade malignancy, high International Prognostic Index (IPI) score, bulky disease and presence of B symptoms predicted a patient for poor survival. High S-phase fraction was predictive of a short survival for the low-grade lymphomas analyses separately (p < 0.00001), as well as for patients treated with an Adriamycin- and a non-Adriamycin-containing regimen (p < 0.005 for both groups). In a multivariate analysis, S-phase fraction (p=0.00006), IPI score (p=0.015) and B symptoms (p=0.017) had independent prognostic values, but not histological grade. (orig.)

Multistream sensor fusion-based prognostics model for systems with single failure modes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fang, Xiaolei; Paynabar, Kamran; Gebraeel, Nagi

2017-01-01

Advances in sensor technology have facilitated the capability of monitoring the degradation of complex engineering systems through the analysis of multistream degradation signals. However, the varying levels of correlation with physical degradation process for different sensors, high-dimensionality of the degradation signals and cross-correlation among different signal streams pose significant challenges in monitoring and prognostics of such systems. To address the foregoing challenges, we develop a three-step multi-sensor prognostic methodology that utilizes multistream signals to predict residual useful lifetimes of partially degraded systems. We first identify the informative sensors via the penalized (log)-location-scale regression. Then, we fuse the degradation signals of the informative sensors using multivariate functional principal component analysis, which is capable of modeling the cross-correlation of signal streams. Finally, the third step focuses on utilizing the fused signal features for prognostics via adaptive penalized (log)-location-scale regression. We validate our multi-sensor prognostic methodology using simulation study as well as a case study of aircraft turbofan engines available from NASA repository.

Short-Term Prognostic Index for Breast Cancer: NPI or Lpi

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. Van Belle

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Axillary lymph node involvement is an important prognostic factor for breast cancer survival but is confounded by the number of nodes examined. We compare the performance of the log odds prognostic index (Lpi, using a ratio of the positive versus negative lymph nodes, with the Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI for short-term breast cancer specific disease free survival. A total of 1818 operable breast cancer patients treated in the University Hospital of Leuven between 2000 and 2005 were included. The performance of the NPI and Lpi were compared on two levels: calibration and discrimination. The latter was evaluated using the concordance index (cindex, the number of patients in the extreme groups, and difference in event rates between these. The NPI had a significant higher cindex, but a significant lower percentage of patients in the extreme risk groups. After updating both indices, no significant differences between NPI and Lpi were noted.

Development and Validation of a New Prognostic System for Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

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Fabio Farinati

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Prognostic assessment in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC remains controversial. Using the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA database as a training set, we sought to develop and validate a new prognostic system for patients with HCC.Prospective collected databases from Italy (training cohort, n = 3,628; internal validation cohort, n = 1,555 and Taiwan (external validation cohort, n = 2,651 were used to develop the ITA.LI.CA prognostic system. We first defined ITA.LI.CA stages (0, A, B1, B2, B3, C using only tumor characteristics (largest tumor diameter, number of nodules, intra- and extrahepatic macroscopic vascular invasion, extrahepatic metastases. A parametric multivariable survival model was then used to calculate the relative prognostic value of ITA.LI.CA tumor stage, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG performance status, Child-Pugh score (CPS, and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP in predicting individual survival. Based on the model results, an ITA.LI.CA integrated prognostic score (from 0 to 13 points was constructed, and its prognostic power compared with that of other integrated systems (BCLC, HKLC, MESIAH, CLIP, JIS. Median follow-up was 58 mo for Italian patients (interquartile range, 26-106 mo and 39 mo for Taiwanese patients (interquartile range, 12-61 mo. The ITA.LI.CA integrated prognostic score showed optimal discrimination and calibration abilities in Italian patients. Observed median survival in the training and internal validation sets was 57 and 61 mo, respectively, in quartile 1 (ITA.LI.CA score ≤ 1, 43 and 38 mo in quartile 2 (ITA.LI.CA score 2-3, 23 and 23 mo in quartile 3 (ITA.LI.CA score 4-5, and 9 and 8 mo in quartile 4 (ITA.LI.CA score > 5. Observed and predicted median survival in the training and internal validation sets largely coincided. Although observed and predicted survival estimations were significantly lower (log-rank test, p < 0.001 in Italian than in Taiwanese patients, the ITA.LI.CA score maintained

Health Worker Focused Distributed Simulation for Improving Capability of Health Systems in Liberia.

Science.gov (United States)

Gale, Thomas C E; Chatterjee, Arunangsu; Mellor, Nicholas E; Allan, Richard J

2016-04-01

The main goal of this study was to produce an adaptable learning platform using virtual learning and distributed simulation, which can be used to train health care workers, across a wide geographical area, key safety messages regarding infection prevention control (IPC). A situationally responsive agile methodology, Scrum, was used to develop a distributed simulation module using short 1-week iterations and continuous synchronous plus asynchronous communication including end users and IPC experts. The module contained content related to standard IPC precautions (including handwashing techniques) and was structured into 3 distinct sections related to donning, doffing, and hazard perception training. Using Scrum methodology, we were able to link concepts applied to best practices in simulation-based medical education (deliberate practice, continuous feedback, self-assessment, and exposure to uncommon events), pedagogic principles related to adult learning (clear goals, contextual awareness, motivational features), and key learning outcomes regarding IPC, as a rapid response initiative to the Ebola outbreak in West Africa. Gamification approach has been used to map learning mechanics to enhance user engagement. The developed IPC module demonstrates how high-frequency, low-fidelity simulations can be rapidly designed using scrum-based agile methodology. Analytics incorporated into the tool can help demonstrate improved confidence and competence of health care workers who are treating patients within an Ebola virus disease outbreak region. These concepts could be used in a range of evolving disasters where rapid development and communication of key learning messages are required.

Evaluation of prognostic models developed using standardised image features from different PET automated segmentation methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Parkinson, Craig; Foley, Kieran; Whybra, Philip; Hills, Robert; Roberts, Ashley; Marshall, Chris; Staffurth, John; Spezi, Emiliano

2018-04-11

Prognosis in oesophageal cancer (OC) is poor. The 5-year overall survival (OS) rate is approximately 15%. Personalised medicine is hoped to increase the 5- and 10-year OS rates. Quantitative analysis of PET is gaining substantial interest in prognostic research but requires the accurate definition of the metabolic tumour volume. This study compares prognostic models developed in the same patient cohort using individual PET segmentation algorithms and assesses the impact on patient risk stratification. Consecutive patients (n = 427) with biopsy-proven OC were included in final analysis. All patients were staged with PET/CT between September 2010 and July 2016. Nine automatic PET segmentation methods were studied. All tumour contours were subjectively analysed for accuracy, and segmentation methods with segmentation methods studied, clustering means (KM2), general clustering means (GCM3), adaptive thresholding (AT) and watershed thresholding (WT) methods were included for analysis. Known clinical prognostic factors (age, treatment and staging) were significant in all of the developed prognostic models. AT and KM2 segmentation methods developed identical prognostic models. Patient risk stratification was dependent on the segmentation method used to develop the prognostic model with up to 73 patients (17.1%) changing risk stratification group. Prognostic models incorporating quantitative image features are dependent on the method used to delineate the primary tumour. This has a subsequent effect on risk stratification, with patients changing groups depending on the image segmentation method used.

Tumor Microenvironment Gene Signature as a Prognostic Classifier and Therapeutic Target

Science.gov (United States)

2016-06-01

AWARD NUMBER: W81XWH-14-1-0107 TITLE: Tumor Microenvironment Gene Signature as a Prognostic Classifier and Therapeutic Target PRINCIPAL...AND SUBTITLE Tumor Microenvironment Gene Signature as a 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER W81XWH-14-1-0107 Prognostic Classifier and Therapeutic Target 5b...gene signature that correlates with poor survival in ovarian cancer patients. We are refining this gene signature to develop biomarkers for the

Focal versus diffuse anaplasia in Wilms tumor--new definitions with prognostic significance: a report from the National Wilms Tumor Study Group.

Science.gov (United States)

Faria, P; Beckwith, J B; Mishra, K; Zuppan, C; Weeks, D A; Breslow, N; Green, D M

1996-08-01

Anaplasia, defined by the presence of extreme nuclear and mitotic atypia, is a potent marker of adverse prognosis in Wilms tumor (WT). Anaplastic WT cells apparently have increased resistance to therapy rather than increased aggressiveness. The distribution of anaplasia should therefore have critical prognostic relevance. The original definitions for focal anaplasia (FA) and diffuse anaplasia (DA) were based on quantitative rather than topographical criteria and lacked prognostic significance. A new definition was developed based on the distribution of anaplastic changes within the tumor: FA applies only to tumors with anaplasia confined to one or a few discrete loci within the primary tumor, with no anaplasia or marked nuclear atypia elsewhere. This revised definition was evaluated in 165 cases with anaplastic WT entered on the third and fourth National Wilms Tumor Study. Only three relapses and one death occurred among 39 cases with FA, regardless of tumor stage, a result comparable to that for nonanaplastic WT. Eight children with metastases at diagnosis and FA in the primary tumor were alive and free of relapse; 22 of 23 children with stage IV DA WT died of tumor. This new definition reinforces the importance of carefully documenting the exact site from which each tumor section is obtained.

Prognostic factors of whiplash-associated disorders: a systematic review of prospective cohort studies

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Scholten-Peeters, Gwendolijne G.M; Verhagen, Arianne P; Bekkering, Geertruida E; van der Windt, Daniëlle A W M; Barnsley, Les; Oostendorp, Rob A B; Hendriks, Erik J M

2003-01-01

We present a systematic review of prospective cohort studies. Our aim was to assess prognostic factors associated with functional recovery of patients with whiplash injuries. The failure of some patients to recover following whiplash injury has been linked to a number of prognostic factors. However,

Prognostic factors of whiplash-associated disorders: a systematic review of prospective cohort studies.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Scholten-Peeters, G.G.M.; Verhagen, A.P.; Bekkering, G.E.; Windt, D.A.W.M. van der; Barnsley, L.; Oostendorp, R.A.B.; Hendriks, E.

2003-01-01

We present a systematic review of prospective cohort studies. Our aim was to assess prognostic factors associated with functional recovery of patients with whiplash injuries. The failure of some patients to recover following whiplash injury has been linked to a number of prognostic factors. However,

Measures to assess the prognostic ability of the stratified Cox proportional hazards model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

(Tybjaerg-Hansen, A.) The Fibrinogen Studies Collaboration.The Copenhagen City Heart Study; Tybjærg-Hansen, Anne

2009-01-01

Many measures have been proposed to summarize the prognostic ability of the Cox proportional hazards (CPH) survival model, although none is universally accepted for general use. By contrast, little work has been done to summarize the prognostic ability of the stratified CPH model; such measures...

The distributional effects of employer and individual health insurance mandates.

Science.gov (United States)

Holahan, J; Winterbottom, C; Zedlewski, S

This paper assesses the impact of different kinds of employer and individual mandates on the cost to individuals, business, and government. We also examine the distribution of health care expenditures across individuals in different income groups, assuming that individuals ultimately bear the cost of employer payments through lower wages and the cost of government payments through tax contributions. A major conclusion is that net benefits to lower income individuals improve under all alternatives to the current system with relatively small increases in payments by individuals in any income group. Additionally, while employer mandates reduce individuals' direct payments, individual mandates can have lower costs to the government and better distributional outcomes. A 50% employer mandate also has many desirable features.

Glasgow Prognostic Score as a Prognostic Clinical Marker in T4 Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma.

Science.gov (United States)

Ohira, Masaichi; Kubo, Naoshi; Masuda, Go; Yamashita, Yoshito; Sakurai, Katsunobu; Toyokawa, Takahiro; Tanaka, Hiroaki; Muguruma, Kazuya; Hirakawa, Kosei

2015-09-01

Patients with clinical T4 esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) have an unfavorable prognosis, mainly indicated by the response to chemoradiotherapy (CRT), crucial to estimating long-term survival. Other prognostic measures include systemic inflammatory or immunonutritional indices such as the Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS) and Prognostic Nutritional Index (PNI) that have not been sufficiently documented. This study retrospectively evaluated 91 patients with T4 ESCC treated at our Hospital between 2000 and 2013. All patients initially received CRT, including 5-fluorouracil (5FU) and cisplatin or nedaplatin with concurrent 2-Gy/fraction radiation (total dose, 40-60 Gy). Curative tumor resection was undertaken in suitable patients on completing CRT. Patients were classified as GPS0, GPS1, or GPS2 based on C-reactive protein (CRP) ≤ 10 mg/l and albumin ≥ 35 g/l, CRP >10 mg/l or albumin l, or CRP >10 mg/l and albumin l, respectively. PNI was calculated as 10-times the serum albumin (g/dl)+0.005 × total lymphocyte count (/mm(3)). The impact of the pre-treatment GPS and PNI on the prognosis of patients with T4 ESCC was investigated in univariate and multivariate analyses. Sixty (67%) patients responded to CRT (9 complete responses and 51 partial responses). Forty-one (45%) patients also underwent surgical resection of the residual tumor. The overall 5-year survival rate and median survival time were 27.0% and 11.8 months, respectively. In the cohort of CRT-plus-surgical resection, the 5-year survival rate was significantly higher than in the groups treated with CRT-alone (51.1% vs. 6.5%; p GPS1/2 (HR=2.151, p=0.015), and surgical resection (HR=0.282, pGPS is a useful, simple survival marker for patients with T4 ESCC undergoing multimodal therapy. Copyright© 2015 International Institute of Anticancer Research (Dr. John G. Delinassios), All rights reserved.

Prognostic and survival analysis of presbyopia: The healthy twin study

Science.gov (United States)

Lira, Adiyani; Sung, Joohon

2015-12-01

Presbyopia, a vision condition in which the eye loses its flexibility to focus on near objects, is part of ageing process which mostly perceptible in the early or mid 40s. It is well known that age is its major risk factor, while sex, alcohol, poor nutrition, ocular and systemic diseases are known as common risk factors. However, many other variables might influence the prognosis. Therefore in this paper we developed a prognostic model to estimate survival from presbyopia. 1645 participants which part of the Healthy Twin Study, a prospective cohort study that has recruited Korean adult twins and their family members based on a nation-wide registry at public health agencies since 2005, were collected and analyzed by univariate analysis as well as Cox proportional hazard model to reveal the prognostic factors for presbyopia while survival curves were calculated by Kaplan-Meier method. Besides age, sex, diabetes, and myopia; the proposed model shows that education level (especially engineering program) also contribute to the occurrence of presbyopia as well. Generally, at 47 years old, the chance of getting presbyopia becomes higher with the survival probability is less than 50%. Furthermore, our study shows that by stratifying the survival curve, MZ has shorter survival with average onset time about 45.8 compare to DZ and siblings with 47.5 years old. By providing factors that have more effects and mainly associate with presbyopia, we expect that we could help to design an intervention to control or delay its onset time.

Potential challenges facing distributed leadership in health care: evidence from the UK National Health Service.

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, Graeme; Beech, Nic; MacIntosh, Robert; Bushfield, Stacey

2015-01-01

The discourse of leaderism in health care has been a subject of much academic and practical debate. Recently, distributed leadership (DL) has been adopted as a key strand of policy in the UK National Health Service (NHS). However, there is some confusion over the meaning of DL and uncertainty over its application to clinical and non-clinical staff. This article examines the potential for DL in the NHS by drawing on qualitative data from three co-located health-care organisations that embraced DL as part of their organisational strategy. Recent theorising positions DL as a hybrid model combining focused and dispersed leadership; however, our data raise important challenges for policymakers and senior managers who are implementing such a leadership policy. We show that there are three distinct forms of disconnect and that these pose a significant problem for DL. However, we argue that instead of these disconnects posing a significant problem for the discourse of leaderism, they enable a fantasy of leadership that draws on and supports the discourse. © 2014 The Authors. Sociology of Health & Illness © 2014 Foundation for the Sociology of Health & Illness/John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Prognostic Factors and Outcome of Management of Ischemic ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

management, prognostic factors, and outcome of ischemic priapism in patients seen at Ahmadu Bello University Teaching Hospital, Zaria, Nigeria. ..... Financial support and sponsorship. Nil. ... European Association of Urology guidelines on.

Where Are the NGOs and Why? The Distribution of Health and Development NGOs in Bolivia

OpenAIRE

Galway, Lindsay P.; Corbett, Kitty K.; Zeng, Leilei

2012-01-01

Abstract Background The presence and influence of nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) in the landscape of global health and development have dramatically increased over the past several decades. The distribution of NGO activity and the ways in which contextual factors influence the distribution of NGO activity across geographies merit study. This paper explores the distribution of NGO activity, using Bolivia as a case study, and identifies local factors that are related to the distribution o...

Quantification of the heterogeneity of prognostic cellular biomarkers in ewing sarcoma using automated image and random survival forest analysis.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Claudia Bühnemann

Full Text Available Driven by genomic somatic variation, tumour tissues are typically heterogeneous, yet unbiased quantitative methods are rarely used to analyse heterogeneity at the protein level. Motivated by this problem, we developed automated image segmentation of images of multiple biomarkers in Ewing sarcoma to generate distributions of biomarkers between and within tumour cells. We further integrate high dimensional data with patient clinical outcomes utilising random survival forest (RSF machine learning. Using material from cohorts of genetically diagnosed Ewing sarcoma with EWSR1 chromosomal translocations, confocal images of tissue microarrays were segmented with level sets and watershed algorithms. Each cell nucleus and cytoplasm were identified in relation to DAPI and CD99, respectively, and protein biomarkers (e.g. Ki67, pS6, Foxo3a, EGR1, MAPK localised relative to nuclear and cytoplasmic regions of each cell in order to generate image feature distributions. The image distribution features were analysed with RSF in relation to known overall patient survival from three separate cohorts (185 informative cases. Variation in pre-analytical processing resulted in elimination of a high number of non-informative images that had poor DAPI localisation or biomarker preservation (67 cases, 36%. The distribution of image features for biomarkers in the remaining high quality material (118 cases, 104 features per case were analysed by RSF with feature selection, and performance assessed using internal cross-validation, rather than a separate validation cohort. A prognostic classifier for Ewing sarcoma with low cross-validation error rates (0.36 was comprised of multiple features, including the Ki67 proliferative marker and a sub-population of cells with low cytoplasmic/nuclear ratio of CD99. Through elimination of bias, the evaluation of high-dimensionality biomarker distribution within cell populations of a tumour using random forest analysis in quality

Quantification of the heterogeneity of prognostic cellular biomarkers in ewing sarcoma using automated image and random survival forest analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Bühnemann, Claudia; Li, Simon; Yu, Haiyue; Branford White, Harriet; Schäfer, Karl L; Llombart-Bosch, Antonio; Machado, Isidro; Picci, Piero; Hogendoorn, Pancras C W; Athanasou, Nicholas A; Noble, J Alison; Hassan, A Bassim

2014-01-01

Driven by genomic somatic variation, tumour tissues are typically heterogeneous, yet unbiased quantitative methods are rarely used to analyse heterogeneity at the protein level. Motivated by this problem, we developed automated image segmentation of images of multiple biomarkers in Ewing sarcoma to generate distributions of biomarkers between and within tumour cells. We further integrate high dimensional data with patient clinical outcomes utilising random survival forest (RSF) machine learning. Using material from cohorts of genetically diagnosed Ewing sarcoma with EWSR1 chromosomal translocations, confocal images of tissue microarrays were segmented with level sets and watershed algorithms. Each cell nucleus and cytoplasm were identified in relation to DAPI and CD99, respectively, and protein biomarkers (e.g. Ki67, pS6, Foxo3a, EGR1, MAPK) localised relative to nuclear and cytoplasmic regions of each cell in order to generate image feature distributions. The image distribution features were analysed with RSF in relation to known overall patient survival from three separate cohorts (185 informative cases). Variation in pre-analytical processing resulted in elimination of a high number of non-informative images that had poor DAPI localisation or biomarker preservation (67 cases, 36%). The distribution of image features for biomarkers in the remaining high quality material (118 cases, 104 features per case) were analysed by RSF with feature selection, and performance assessed using internal cross-validation, rather than a separate validation cohort. A prognostic classifier for Ewing sarcoma with low cross-validation error rates (0.36) was comprised of multiple features, including the Ki67 proliferative marker and a sub-population of cells with low cytoplasmic/nuclear ratio of CD99. Through elimination of bias, the evaluation of high-dimensionality biomarker distribution within cell populations of a tumour using random forest analysis in quality controlled tumour

Prognostic Health Management for Avionics System Power Supplies

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Orsagh, Rolf; Brown, Douglas; Roemer, Michael; Dabney, Thomas; Hess, Andrew

2005-01-01

This paper presents an integrated approach to switching mode power supply health management that implements techniques from engineering disciplines including statistical reliability modeling, damage...

Model-based Prognostics with Concurrent Damage Progression Processes

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Model-based prognostics approaches rely on physics-based models that describe the behavior of systems and their components. These models must account for the several...

Model-based Prognostics with Fixed-lag Particle Filters

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Model-based prognostics exploits domain knowl- edge of the system, its components, and how they fail by casting the underlying physical phenom- ena in a...

Prognostic factors in invasive bladder cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maulard-Durdux, C.; Housset, M.

1998-01-01

In France, invasive bladder cancer is the more frequent urologic malignancy after prostate carcinoma. Treatment of bladder cancer is radical cystectomy. New therapeutic approaches such as chemo-radiation combination for a conservative procedure, neo-adjuvant or adjuvant chemotherapy are still developing. In this way, a rigorous selection of patients is needed. This selection is based on prognostic criteria that could be divided into four groups: the volume of the tumor including the tumor infiltration depth, the nodal status, the presence or not of hydronephrosis and the residual tumor mass after trans-urethral resection; the histologic aspects of the tumor including histologic grading, the presence or not of an epidermoid metaplasia, of in situ carcinoma or of thrombi; the expression of tumor markers tissue polypeptide antigen, bladder tumor antigen; the biologic aspects of the tumor as ploidy, cytogenetic abnormalities, expression of Ki67, expression of oncogenes or tumor suppressor genes, expression of tumor antigens or growth factor receptors. This paper reviews the prognostic value of the various parameters. (authors)

Comparison of colorectal and gastric cancer: Survival and prognostic factors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moghimi-Dehkordi, Bijan; Safaee, Azadeh; Zali, Mohammad R

2009-01-01

Gastric and colorectal cancers are the most common gastrointestinal malignancies in Iran. We aim to compare the survival rates and prognostic factors between these two cancers. We studied 1873 patients with either gastric or colorectal cancer who were registered in one referral cancer registry center in Tehran, Iran. All patients were followed from their time of diagnosis until December 2006 (as failure time). Survival curves were calculated according to the Kaplan-Meier Method and compared by the Log-rank test. Multivariate analysis of prognostic factors was carried out using the Cox proportional hazard model. Of 1873 patients, there were 746 with gastric cancer and 1138 with colorectal cancer. According to the Kaplan-Meier method 1, 3, 5, and 7-year survival rates were 71.2, 37.8, 25.3, and 19.5%, respectively, in gastric cancer patients and 91.1, 73.1, 61, and 54.9%, respectively, in patients with colorectal cancer. Also, univariate analysis showed that age at diagnosis, sex, grade of tumor, and distant metastasis were of prognostic significance in both cancers ( P < 0.0001). However, in multivariate analysis, only distant metastasis in colorectal cancer and age at diagnosis, grade of tumor, and distant metastasis in colorectal cancer were identified as independent prognostic factors influencing survival. According to our findings, survival is significantly related to histological differentiation of tumor and distant metastasis in colorectal cancer patients and only to distant metastasis in gastric cancer patients. (author)

Prognostic modelling options for remaining useful life estimation by industry

Science.gov (United States)

Sikorska, J. Z.; Hodkiewicz, M.; Ma, L.

2011-07-01

Over recent years a significant amount of research has been undertaken to develop prognostic models that can be used to predict the remaining useful life of engineering assets. Implementations by industry have only had limited success. By design, models are subject to specific assumptions and approximations, some of which are mathematical, while others relate to practical implementation issues such as the amount of data required to validate and verify a proposed model. Therefore, appropriate model selection for successful practical implementation requires not only a mathematical understanding of each model type, but also an appreciation of how a particular business intends to utilise a model and its outputs. This paper discusses business issues that need to be considered when selecting an appropriate modelling approach for trial. It also presents classification tables and process flow diagrams to assist industry and research personnel select appropriate prognostic models for predicting the remaining useful life of engineering assets within their specific business environment. The paper then explores the strengths and weaknesses of the main prognostics model classes to establish what makes them better suited to certain applications than to others and summarises how each have been applied to engineering prognostics. Consequently, this paper should provide a starting point for young researchers first considering options for remaining useful life prediction. The models described in this paper are Knowledge-based (expert and fuzzy), Life expectancy (stochastic and statistical), Artificial Neural Networks, and Physical models.

Prognostic relevance of PCI-related myocardial infarction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Woudstra, Pier; Grundeken, Maik J.; van de Hoef, Tim P.; Wallentin, Lars; Fox, Keith A.; de Winter, Robbert J.; Damman, Peter

2013-01-01

Procedure-related myocardial infarction (pMI) is directly associated with a coronary revascularization procedure, such as percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) or CABG surgery. In contrast to spontaneous myocardial infarction (MI), the prognostic relevance of pMI is the subject of ongoing debate.

Prognostic indicators for surgical peri-implantitis treatment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Waal, Yvonne C M; Raghoebar, Gerry M; Meijer, Henny J A; Winkel, Edwin G; van Winkelhoff, Arie Jan

2016-01-01

Objectives: Objective of this study was to identify prognostic indicators for the outcome of resective peri-implantitis treatment, by an analysis of the pooled data of two previously conducted randomized controlled trials. Material and methods: Data of 74 patients with peri-implantitis (187

Prognostic Performance and Reproducibility of the 1973 and 2004/2016 World Health Organization Grading Classification Systems in Non-muscle-invasive Bladder Cancer: A European Association of Urology Non-muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer Guidelines Panel Systematic Review.

Science.gov (United States)

Soukup, Viktor; Čapoun, Otakar; Cohen, Daniel; Hernández, Virginia; Babjuk, Marek; Burger, Max; Compérat, Eva; Gontero, Paolo; Lam, Thomas; MacLennan, Steven; Mostafid, A Hugh; Palou, Joan; van Rhijn, Bas W G; Rouprêt, Morgan; Shariat, Shahrokh F; Sylvester, Richard; Yuan, Yuhong; Zigeuner, Richard

2017-11-01

Tumour grade is an important prognostic indicator in non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC). Histopathological classifications are limited by interobserver variability (reproducibility), which may have prognostic implications. European Association of Urology NMIBC guidelines suggest concurrent use of both 1973 and 2004/2016 World Health Organization (WHO) classifications. To compare the prognostic performance and reproducibility of the 1973 and 2004/2016 WHO grading systems for NMIBC. A systematic literature search was undertaken incorporating Medline, Embase, and the Cochrane Library. Studies were critically appraised for risk of bias (QUIPS). For prognosis, the primary outcome was progression to muscle-invasive or metastatic disease. Secondary outcomes were disease recurrence, and overall and cancer-specific survival. For reproducibility, the primary outcome was interobserver variability between pathologists. Secondary outcome was intraobserver variability (repeatability) by the same pathologist. Of 3593 articles identified, 20 were included in the prognostic review; three were eligible for the reproducibility review. Increasing tumour grade in both classifications was associated with higher disease progression and recurrence rates. Progression rates in grade 1 patients were similar to those in low-grade patients; progression rates in grade 3 patients were higher than those in high-grade patients. Survival data were limited. Reproducibility of the 2004/2016 system was marginally better than that of the 1973 system. Two studies on repeatability showed conflicting results. Most studies had a moderate to high risk of bias. Current grading classifications in NMIBC are suboptimal. The 1973 system identifies more aggressive tumours. Intra- and interobserver variability was slightly less in the 2004/2016 classification. We could not confirm that the 2004/2016 classification outperforms the 1973 classification in prediction of recurrence and progression. This article

An Aircraft Lifecycle Approach for the Cost-Benefit Analysis of Prognostics and Condition-Based Maintenance-Based on Discrete-Event Simulation

Science.gov (United States)

2014-10-02

MPD. This manufacturer documentation contains maintenance tasks with specification of intervals and required man-hours that are to be carried out...failures, without consideration of false alarms and missed failures (see also section 4.1.3). The task redundancy rate is the percentage of preventive...Prognostics and Health Management ROI return on investment RUL remaining useful life TCG task code group SB Service Bulletin XML Extensible Markup

Expression of p40 (∆Np63) protein in meningiomas, an unexpected finding: immunohistochemical study and evaluation of its possible prognostic role.

Science.gov (United States)

Guadagno, Elia; Del Basso De Caro, Marialaura; Pignatiello, Sara; Sciammarella, Concetta; Solari, Domenico; Cappabianca, Paolo; Maiuri, Francesco; Dones, Flavia

2016-09-01

According to the 2007 WHO (World Health Organization) Classification, meningiomas are divided into three grades of malignancy, with different recurrence rate, based exclusively on histopathological parameters. Loss/reduction of PgR (Progesterone Receptor) expression and increased Ki67 L.I. (Labeling Index) have been proven as possible prognostic factors able to predict the relapse of the disease. However, they sometimes result unreliable, especially when discordant. p40 is the short form of the p53 homologue gene p63, also named ∆Np63, and its antibody has recently been introduced as a highly specific diagnostic marker of the squamous cell carcinoma of the lung. Nevertheless its expression has been found in many other unconventional sites (e.g. placenta, urotheluim, etc). Herein we assessed the immuno-expression of p40 protein in a series of 72 meningiomas (35 grade I and 37 grade II) and analyzed its correlation with clinicopathological parameters, overall survival and recurrence free interval. We found that a high p40 score correlated with high histological grade, presence of recurrence, increased Ki67 L.I. and loss/reduction of PgR signal. Moreover, a higher expression of p40 was shown to be a significant prognostic factor for the development of recurrences and resulted a prognostic independent variable in multivariate analysis. Overall, for the first time, we investigated the expression of p40 protein in meningiomas and explored its usefulness as prognostic marker in addition to PgR and Ki67 L.I.

Marjolin's ulcers: theories, prognostic factors and their peculiarities in spina bifida patients

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nthumba Peter M

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Due to improved care, more and more children born with spina bifida in rural Kenya are surviving into adulthood. This improved survival has led to significant challenges in their lifestyles, especially the need to ensure pressure ulcer prevention and treatment. Malignant degeneration of pressure ulcers in spina bifida patients is very rare. The author describes the clinical presentation of two pressure ulcer carcinomas that are at variance from classical descriptions. Materials and methods An internet/Medline/PubMed search of English literature for theories on Marjolin's ulcer evolution and prognostic features of Marjolin's ulcers was performed. A chart review of two young adults with spina bifida who had presented to the author's hospital between 2004 and August 2010 with chronic pressure ulcers found to be Marjolin's ulcers on histo-pathological examination was performed, and the clinical features are reported. Results The two ulcers appeared clinically benign: one was a deep ulcer, while the other was shallow; both had normal, benign-appearing edges, and a foul smelling discharge. The two ulcers were surrounded by induration and multiple communicating sinuses, with no evidence of chronic osteomyelitis. The internet search revealed a total of nine theories on Marjolin's ulcer development, as well as seven clinical and four histological prognostic features. Discussion The multifactorial theory, a coalescence of a number of proposed theories, best explains the evolution of Marjolin's ulcers. Poor prognostic features include pressure ulcer carcinomas, lesions and location in the lower limbs/trunks, all present in the two patients making their prognosis dim: this is despite the surgical margins being clear of tumor. Benign appearance, induration and presence of multiple communicating sinuses are features that have not been previously described as presenting features of pressure ulcers carcinomas. Conclusion There is need for

Prognostic factors in pediatric pulmonary arterial hypertension: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Ploegstra, Mark-Jan; Zijlstra, Willemijn M H; Douwes, Johannes M; Hillege, Hans L; Berger, Rolf M F

2015-04-01

Despite the introduction of targeted therapies in pediatric pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH), prognosis remains poor. For the definition of treatment strategies and guidelines, there is a high need for an evidence-based recapitulation of prognostic factors. The aim of this study was to identify and evaluate prognostic factors in pediatric PAH by a systematic review of the literature and to summarize the prognostic value of currently reported prognostic factors using meta-analysis. Medline, EMBASE and Cochrane Library were searched on April 1st 2014 to identify original studies that described predictors of mortality or lung-transplantation exclusively in children with PAH. 1053 citations were identified, of which 25 were included for further analysis. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals were extracted from the papers. For variables studied in at least three non-overlapping cohorts, a combined HR was calculated using random-effects meta-analysis. WHO functional class (WHO-FC, HR 2.7), (N-terminal pro-) brain natriuretic peptide ([NT-pro]BNP, HR 3.2), mean right atrial pressure (mRAP, HR 1.1), cardiac index (HR 0.7), indexed pulmonary vascular resistance (PVRi, HR 1.3) and acute vasodilator response (HR 0.3) were identified as significant prognostic factors (p ≤ 0.001). This systematic review combined with separate meta-analyses shows that WHO-FC, (NT-pro)BNP, mRAP, PVRi, cardiac index and acute vasodilator response are consistently reported prognostic factors for outcome in pediatric PAH. These variables are useful clinical tools to assess prognosis and should be incorporated in treatment strategies and guidelines for children with PAH. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A simulation study on estimating biomarker-treatment interaction effects in randomized trials with prognostic variables.

Science.gov (United States)

Haller, Bernhard; Ulm, Kurt

2018-02-20

To individualize treatment decisions based on patient characteristics, identification of an interaction between a biomarker and treatment is necessary. Often such potential interactions are analysed using data from randomized clinical trials intended for comparison of two treatments. Tests of interactions are often lacking statistical power and we investigated if and how a consideration of further prognostic variables can improve power and decrease the bias of estimated biomarker-treatment interactions in randomized clinical trials with time-to-event outcomes. A simulation study was performed to assess how prognostic factors affect the estimate of the biomarker-treatment interaction for a time-to-event outcome, when different approaches, like ignoring other prognostic factors, including all available covariates or using variable selection strategies, are applied. Different scenarios regarding the proportion of censored observations, the correlation structure between the covariate of interest and further potential prognostic variables, and the strength of the interaction were considered. The simulation study revealed that in a regression model for estimating a biomarker-treatment interaction, the probability of detecting a biomarker-treatment interaction can be increased by including prognostic variables that are associated with the outcome, and that the interaction estimate is biased when relevant prognostic variables are not considered. However, the probability of a false-positive finding increases if too many potential predictors are included or if variable selection is performed inadequately. We recommend undertaking an adequate literature search before data analysis to derive information about potential prognostic variables and to gain power for detecting true interaction effects and pre-specifying analyses to avoid selective reporting and increased false-positive rates.

Prognostic radiographic aspects of spondylolisthesis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saraste, H.; Brostroem, L.A.; Aparisi, T.

1984-01-01

A series of 202 patients (133 men, 69 women) with lumbar spondylolysis were examined radiographically on two occasions, first at the time of diagnosis and later at a follow-up, after an observation period of 20 years or more. The films frompatients in groups without and with moderate and severe olisthesis were evaluated with respect to variables describing lumbosacral lordosis, wedging of the spondylolytic vertebra, lengths of the transverse processes and iliolumbar ligaments, disk height, progression of slipping, and influence on measured olisthesis of lumbar spine flexion and extension at the radiographic examination. The evaluation was made with special attention to possible signs which could be predictive for the prognosis of vertebral slipping. Progression of slipping did not differ between patients diagnosed as adults or adolescents. Reduction of disk height was correlated to the degree of slipping present at the initial examination and to the progression of olisthesis. Flexion and extension of the lumbar spine did not modify the degree of olisthesis. Data concerning the lengths of the transverse processes and the iliolumbar ligaments, and lumbar lordosis, cannot be used for prognostic purposes. The lumbar index reflecting the degree of wedge deformity of the spondylolytic vertebra was shown to be the only variable of prognostic value for the development of vertebral slipping. (orig.)

Prognostic radiographic aspects of spondylolisthesis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Saraste, H; Brostroem, L A; Aparisi, T

1984-01-01

A series of 202 patients (133 men, 69 women) with lumbar spondylolysis were examined radiographically on two occasions, first at the time of diagnosis and later at a follow-up, after an observation period of 20 years or more. The films from patients in groups without and with moderate and severe olisthesis were evaluated with respect to variables describing lumbosacral lordosis, wedging of the spondylolytic vertebra, lengths of the transverse processes and iliolumbar ligaments, disk height, progression of slipping, and influence on measured olisthesis of lumbar spine flexion and extension at the radiographic examination. The evaluation was made with special attention to possible signs which could be predictive for the prognosis of vertebral slipping. Progression of slipping did not differ between patients diagnosed as adults or adolescents. Reduction of disk height was correlated to the degree of slipping present at the initial examination and to the progression of olisthesis. Flexion and extension of the lumbar spine did not modify the degree of olisthesis. Data concerning the lengths of the transverse processes and the iliolumbar ligaments, and lumbar lordosis, cannot be used for prognostic purposes. The lumbar index reflecting the degree of wedge deformity of the spondylolytic vertebra was shown to be the only variable of prognostic value for the development of vertebral slipping.

Identification and validation of novel prognostic markers in Renal Cell Carcinoma.

Science.gov (United States)

Rabjerg, Maj

2017-10-01

Kidney cancer (Renal Cell Carcinoma (RCC)) is one of the most deadly malignancies due to frequent late diagnosis and poor treatment options. Histologically, RCC embraces a wide variety of different subtypes with the clear cell variant (ccRCC) being the most common, accounting for 75-90% of all RCCs. At present, the surveillance protocols for follow-up of RCC patients after radical nephrectomy are based on the American Joint Committee on Cancers (AJCC) pathological tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) classification system. Other comprehensive staging modalities have emerged and have been implemented in an attempt to improve prognostication by combining other pathological and clinical variables, including Fuhrman nuclear grade and Leibovich score. However, even early stage tumors remain at risk of metastatic progression after surgical resection and 20-40% of patients undergoing nephrectomy for clinically localized RCC will develop a recurrence. Identifying this high-risk group of RCC patients remains a challenge. Hence, novel molecular prognostic biomarkers are needed to better predict clinical outcomes. An intensive search within this field has been ongoing in the past few years, and the three main predictive and prognostic markers validated in RCC are Von Hippel Lindau (VHL), vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) and carbonic anhydrase IX (CAIX). Nonetheless, the use of these is still debated and none of them have yet been implemented in clinical routine. RCC is resistant to conventional oncological therapies, such as chemotherapy and radiation. The availability of novel targeted therapies directed against tumorigenic and angiogenic pathways have increased over the last years, and the outcome of patients with advanced RCC has significantly improved as a consequence. Unfortunately, all patients eventually become resistant. Thus, the development of novel targeted therapies is of great importance. The aim of this thesis was therefore to contribute in the search for novel

Phosphohistone-H3 (PHH3) is prognostic relevant in Merkel cell carcinomas but Merkel cell polyomavirus is a more powerful prognostic factor than AJCC clinical stage, PHH3, Ki-67 or mitotic indices.

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Iwasaki, Takeshi; Matsushita, Michiko; Nonaka, Daisuke; Kato, Masako; Nagata, Keiko; Murakami, Ichiro; Hayashi, Kazuhiko

2015-08-01

Merkel cell carcinomas (MCCs) associated with Merkel cell polyomavirus (MCPyV) have better prognosis than those without MCPyV. The relationship between mitotic index (MI) and MCC outcome has remained elusive because of the difficulty in differentiating mitotic cells from apoptotic ones. We evaluated the role of phosphohistone-H3 (PHH3) (Ser10), a new mitotic count biomarker, in MCPyV-positive or -negative MCC patients, and assessed its prognostic value in comparison to Ki-67 labeling index or MI using hematoxylin and eosin (HE) staining. We compared the prognostic value of PHH3 mitotic index with that of MI by HE in 19 MCPyV-positive and 9 MCPyV-negative MCC patients. PHH3-positive immunoreactivity was mostly observed in mitotic figures. Multivariate analysis significantly showed that MCPyV status (HR, 0.004; 95% CI 0.0003-0.058) and the American Joint Committee of Cancer (AJCC) stage (HR, 5.02; 95% CI 1.23-20.51) were observed as significantly independent prognostic factors for OS. PHH3-positive cell counts/10 HPF was a slightly significant independent prognostic factor for OS (HR, 4.96; 95% CI 0.93-26.55). PHH3-positive MI and MCPyV status in MCC patients are useful in prognostication, although MCPyV-infection is a more powerful prognostic factor in MCCs than the AJCC scheme on proliferation or mitotic indices. © 2015 Japanese Society of Pathology and Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Factors Affecting Physicians' Intentions to Communicate Personalized Prognostic Information to Cancer Patients at the End of Life: An Experimental Vignette Study.

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Han, Paul K J; Dieckmann, Nathan F; Holt, Christina; Gutheil, Caitlin; Peters, Ellen

2016-08-01

To explore the effects of personalized prognostic information on physicians' intentions to communicate prognosis to cancer patients at the end of life, and to identify factors that moderate these effects. A factorial experiment was conducted in which 93 family medicine physicians were presented with a hypothetical vignette depicting an end-stage gastric cancer patient seeking prognostic information. Physicians' intentions to communicate prognosis were assessed before and after provision of personalized prognostic information, while emotional distress of the patient and ambiguity (imprecision) of the prognostic estimate were varied between subjects. General linear models were used to test the effects of personalized prognostic information, patient distress, and ambiguity on prognostic communication intentions, and potential moderating effects of 1) perceived patient distress, 2) perceived credibility of prognostic models, 3) physician numeracy (objective and subjective), and 4) physician aversion to risk and ambiguity. Provision of personalized prognostic information increased prognostic communication intentions (P < 0.001, η(2) = 0.38), although experimentally manipulated patient distress and prognostic ambiguity had no effects. Greater change in communication intentions was positively associated with higher perceived credibility of prognostic models (P = 0.007, η(2) = 0.10), higher objective numeracy (P = 0.01, η(2) = 0.09), female sex (P = 0.01, η(2) = 0.08), and lower perceived patient distress (P = 0.02, η(2) = 0.07). Intentions to communicate available personalized prognostic information were positively associated with higher perceived credibility of prognostic models (P = 0.02, η(2) = 0.09), higher subjective numeracy (P = 0.02, η(2) = 0.08), and lower ambiguity aversion (P = 0.06, η(2) = 0.04). Provision of personalized prognostic information increases physicians' prognostic communication intentions to a hypothetical end-stage cancer patient, and

Prognostic value of the C-reactive protein to albumin ratio: a novel inflammation-based prognostic indicator in osteosarcoma

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Li YJ

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Yong-Jiang Li,1,* Kai Yao,2,* Min-Xun Lu,2 Wen-Biao Zhang,1 Cong Xiao,2 Chong-Qi Tu2 1Department of Oncology, 2Department of Orthopedics, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, People’s Republic of China *These authors contributed equally to this work Abstract: The prognostic role of the C-reactive protein to albumin ratio (CRP/Alb ratio in patients with osteosarcoma has not been investigated. A total of 216 osteosarcoma patients were enrolled in the study. Univariate and multivariate survival analyses between the groups were performed and Kaplan–Meier analysis was conducted to plot the survival curves. Receiver operating characteristic curves were generated and areas under the curve (AUCs were compared to assess the discriminatory ability of the inflammation-based indicators, including CRP/Alb ratio, Glasgow prognostic score (GPS, neutrophil–lymphocyte ratio (NLR, and platelet–lymphocyte ratio (PLR. The optimal cutoff value was 0.210 for CRP/Alb ratio with a Youden index of 0.319. Higher values of CRP/Alb ratio were significantly associated with poorer overall survival in univariate (HR =2.62, 95% CI =1.70–4.03; P<0.001 and multivariate (HR =2.21, 95% CI =1.40–3.49; P=0.001 analyses. In addition, the CRP/Alb ratio had significantly higher AUC values compared with GPS (P=0.003, NLR (P<0.001, and PLR (P<0.001. The study demonstrated that the CRP/Alb ratio is an effective inflammation-based prognostic indicator in osteosarcoma, which potentially has a discriminatory ability superior to that of other inflammatory indicators including GPS, NLR, and PLR. Keywords: osteosarcoma, CRP to albumin ratio, prognosis

How Should Organizations Promote Equitable Distribution of Benefits from Technological Innovation in Health Care?

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Nambisan, Satish; Nambisan, Priya

2017-11-01

Technological innovations typically benefit those who have good access to and an understanding of the underlying technologies. As such, technology-centered health care innovations are likely to preferentially benefit users of privileged socioeconomic backgrounds. Which policies and strategies should health care organizations adopt to promote equitable distribution of the benefits from technological innovations? In this essay, we draw on two important concepts-co-creation (the joint creation of value by multiple parties such as a company and its customers) and digitalization (the application of new digital technologies and the ensuing changes in sociotechnical structures and relationships)-and propose a set of policies and strategies that health care organizations could adopt to ensure that benefits from technological innovations are more equitably distributed among all target populations, including resource-poor communities and individuals. © 2017 American Medical Association. All Rights Reserved.

Is elevated Red cell distribution width a prognostic predictor in adult patients with community acquired Pneumonia?

Science.gov (United States)

2014-01-01

Background Community acquired pneumonia (CAP) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality. We recently demonstrated that among young patients (patient characteristic, 90-day mortality and complicated hospitalization. Results The cohort included 3815 patients. In univariate analysis, patients with co-morbid conditions tended to have a complicated course of CAP. In multivariate regression analysis, variables associated with an increased risk of 90-day mortality included age > 70 years, high Charlson comorbidity index (>2), Hb 30 mg/dl, systolic blood pressure 15%. Variables associated with complicated hospitalization included high Charlson comorbidity index, BUN > 30 mg/dl, hemoglobin 124 bpm, systolic blood pressure < 90 mmHg and elevated RDW. Mortality rate and complicated hospitalization were significantly higher among patients with increased RDW regardless of the white blood cell count or hemoglobin levels. Conclusions Elevated RDW levels on admission are associated with significant higher rates of mortality and severe morbidity in adult patients with CAP. RDW as a prognostic marker was unrelated with hemoglobin levels, WBC count, age or Charlson score. PMID:24597687

PROGNOSTIC ALGORITHM FOR DISEASE FLOW IN PULMONARY AND THORACIC LYMPH NODES SARCOIDOSIS

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S. A. Terpigorev

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Background: Sarcoidosis is a systemic granulomatosis commonly affecting respiratory system. Variable and often unpredictable flow of the disease provides rationale for the development of prognostic algorithm. Aim: To detect predictive parameters in pulmonary and thoracic lymph nodes sarcoidosis; to develop prognostic algorithm. Materials and methods: The results of examination of 113 patients (85 women and 28 men, 19–77 years old with morphologically verified sarcoidosis has been assessed. Clinical manifestations, functional, radiographic (including CT numerical scores and morphological features of the disease were analyzed against 3-year outcomes in prednisolon/hydroxychloroquine-treated or treatment-naive patients. Results: Radiographic stage, CT-pattern scores, several parameters of pulmonary function tests (DLCO, RV, FEV1, FVC and dyspnoe had the greatest prognostic significance for disease flow. Prognostic accuracy was 87.8% and increased to 94.5% after one-year dynamics of symptoms was taken into account. Therapy with systemic glucocorticosteroids did not influence outcomes in sarcoidosis with asymptomatic enlargement of thoracic lymph nodes. Conclusion: We have developed an algorithm for prognosis assessment in pulmonary sarcoidosis. Taking into account the results of patients follow-up significantly improves the accuracy of the prognosis.

The prognostic importance of lung function in patients admitted with heart failure.

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Iversen, Kasper Karmark; Kjaergaard, Jesper; Akkan, Dilek; Kober, Lars; Torp-Pedersen, Christian; Hassager, Christian; Vestbo, Jorgen; Kjoller, Erik

2010-07-01

The purpose of the present study was to determine the prognostic importance for all-cause mortality of lung function variables obtained by spirometry in an unselected group of patients admitted with heart failure (HF). This was a prospective prognostic study performed as part of the EchoCardiography and Heart Outcome Study (ECHOS). This analysis included 532 patients admitted with a clinical diagnosis of HF. All patients underwent spirometry and echocardiography and the diagnosis of HF was made according to established criteria. Mean forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV(1)) was 65% of the predicted value [95% confidence interval (CI) 63-67%], mean forced vital capacity (FVC) was 71% of predicted (95% CI 69-72%), and FEV(1)/FVC was 0.72 (95% CI 0.71-0.73). FEV(1), FVC, and FEV(1)/FVC were all significant prognostic factors for all-cause mortality in univariate analyses. In a multivariate analysis, FEV(1) had independent prognostic value (hazard ratio 0.86 per 10% change, P information for all-cause mortality in patients admitted with HF. Spirometry therefore seems to be worth considering for all patients admitted with HF in order to identify patients at high risk.

The Prognostic Value of Haplotypes in the Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor A Gene in Colorectal Cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hansen, Torben F.; Spindler, Karen-Lise G.; Andersen, Rikke F.; Lindebjerg, Jan; Kølvraa, Steen; Brandslund, Ivan; Jakobsen, Anders

2010-01-01

New prognostic markers in patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) are a prerequisite for individualized treatment. Prognostic importance of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the vascular endothelial growth factor A (VEGF-A) gene has been proposed. The objective of the present study was to investigate the prognostic importance of haplotypes in the VEGF-A gene in patients with CRC. The study included 486 patients surgically resected for stage II and III CRC, divided into two independent cohorts. Three SNPs in the VEGF-A gene were analyzed by polymerase chain reaction. Haplotypes were estimated using the PHASE program. The prognostic influence was evaluated using Kaplan-Meir plots and log rank tests. Cox regression method was used to analyze the independent prognostic importance of different markers. All three SNPs were significantly related to survival. A haplotype combination, responsible for this effect, was present in approximately 30% of the patients and demonstrated a significant relationship with poor survival, and it remained an independent prognostic marker after multivariate analysis, hazard ratio 2.46 (95% confidence interval 1.49–4.06), p < 0.001. Validation was provided by consistent findings in a second and independent cohort. Haplotype combinations call for further investigation

Characterization and prognostic implication of 17 chromosome abnormalities in myelodysplastic syndrome.

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Sánchez-Castro, Judit; Marco-Betés, Víctor; Gómez-Arbonés, Xavier; Arenillas, Leonor; Valcarcel, David; Vallespí, Teresa; Costa, Dolors; Nomdedeu, Benet; Jimenez, María José; Granada, Isabel; Grau, Javier; Ardanaz, María T; de la Serna, Javier; Carbonell, Félix; Cervera, José; Sierra, Adriana; Luño, Elisa; Cervero, Carlos J; Falantes, José; Calasanz, María J; González-Porrás, José R; Bailén, Alicia; Amigo, M Luz; Sanz, Guillermo; Solé, Francesc

2013-07-01

The prognosis of chromosome 17 (chr17) abnormalities in patients with primary myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) remains unclear. The revised International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS-R) includes these abnormalities within the intermediate cytogenetic risk group. This study assessed the impact on overall survival (OS) and risk of acute myeloid leukemia transformation (AMLt) of chr17 abnormalities in 88 patients with primary MDS. We have compared this group with 1346 patients with primary MDS and abnormal karyotype without chr17 involved. The alterations of chr17 should be considered within group of poor prognosis. The different types of alterations of chromosome 17 behave different prognosis. The study confirms the intermediate prognostic impact of the i(17q), as stated in IPSS-R. The results of the study, however, provide valuable new information on the prognostic impact of alterations of chromosome 17 in complex karyotypes. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prognostic Stratification of Patients With Advanced Oral Cavity Squamous Cell Carcinoma.

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De Paz, Dante; Kao, Huang-Kai; Huang, Yenlin; Chang, Kai-Ping

2017-08-10

Prognosis of advanced oral squamous cell carcinoma remains a challenge for clinicians despite progress in its diagnosis and treatment over the past decades. In this review, we assessed clinicopathological factors and potential biomarkers along with their prognostic relevance in an attempt to develop optimal treatment strategies for these patients. In addition to several pathologic factors that have been proposed to improve prognostic stratification and treatment planning in the eighth edition of the American Joint Committee staging manual on cancer, we reviewed some other imaging and clinicopathological parameters demonstrated to be closely associated with patient prognosis, along with the biomarkers related to novel target or immune therapy. Evaluation of current literature regarding the prognostic stratification used in contemporary clinicopathological studies and progress in the development of targeted or immune therapy may help these patients benefit from tailored and personalized treatment and obtain better oncological results.

Glasgow Prognostic Score is superior to ECOG PS as a prognostic factor in patients with gastric cancer with peritoneal seeding.

Science.gov (United States)

Yuan, Shu-Qiang; Nie, Run-Cong; Chen, Yong-Ming; Qiu, Hai-Bo; Li, Xiao-Ping; Chen, Xiao-Jiang; Xu, Li-Pu; Yang, Li-Fang; Sun, Xiao-Wei; Li, Yuan-Fang; Zhou, Zhi-Wei; Chen, Shi; Chen, Ying-Bo

2018-04-01

The Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS) has been shown to be associated with survival rates in patients with advanced cancer. The present study aimed to compare the GPS with the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Status (ECOG PS) in patients with gastric cancer with peritoneal seeding. For the investigation, a total of 384 gastric patients with peritoneal metastasis were retrospectively analyzed. Patients with elevated C-reactive protein (CRP; >10 mg/l) and hypoalbuminemia (l) were assigned a score of 2. Patients were assigned a score of 1 if presenting with only one of these abnormalities, and a score of 0 if neither of these abnormalities were present. The clinicopathologic characteristics and clinical outcomes of patients with peritoneal seeding were analyzed. The results showed that the median overall survival (OS) of patients in the GPS 0 group was longer, compared with that in the GPS 1 and GPS 2 groups (15.50, vs. 10.07 and 7.97 months, respectively; PGPS 0 group was significantly longer, compared with that in the GPS 1 and GPS 2 groups, for the patients receiving palliative chemotherapy and patients without palliative chemotherapy. Multivariate survival analysis demonstrated that CA19-9, palliative gastrectomy, first-line chemotherapy and GPS were the prognostic factors predicting OS. In conclusion, the GPS was superior to the subjective assessment of ECOG PS as a prognostic factor in predicting the outcome of gastric cancer with peritoneal seeding.

Advanced air distribution: Improving health and comfort while reducing energy use

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Melikov, Arsen Krikor

2015-01-01

-quality indoor environments at the same time as low-energy consumption. Advanced air distribution, designed to supply clean air where, when, and as much as needed, makes it possible to efficiently achieve thermal comfort, control exposure to contaminants, provide high-quality air for breathing and minimizing......Indoor environment affects the health, comfort, and performance of building occupants. The energy used for heating, cooling, ventilating, and air conditioning of buildings is substantial. Ventilation based on total volume air distribution in spaces is not always an efficient way to provide high...... the risk of airborne cross-infection while reducing energy use. This study justifies the need for improving the present air distribution design in occupied spaces, and in general the need for a paradigm shift from the design of collective environments to the design of individually controlled environments...

Fractionated stereotactic radiotherapy in patients with benign or atypical intracranial meningioma: Long-term experience and prognostic factors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Milker-Zabel, Stefanie; Zabel, Angelika; Schulz-Ertner, Daniela; Schlegel, Wolfgang; Wannenmacher, Michael; Debus, Juergen

2005-01-01

Purpose: To analyze our long-term experience and prognostic factors after fractionated stereotactic radiotherapy (FSRT) in patients with benign or atypical intracranial meningioma. Methods and materials: Between January 1985 and December 2001, 317 patients with a median age of 55.7 years were treated with FSRT for intracranial meningioma. The tumor distribution was World Health Organization (WHO) Grade 1 in 48.3%, WHO Grade 2 in 8.2%, and unknown in 43.5%. Of the 317 patients, 97 underwent RT as their primary treatment, 79 underwent postoperative RT (subtotal resection in 38 and biopsy only in 41), and 141 were treated for recurrent disease. The median target volume was 33.6 cm 3 (range, 1.0-412.6 cm 3 ). The median total dose was 57.6 Gy at 1.8 Gy/fraction five times weekly. Results: The median follow-up was 5.7 years (range, 1.2-14.3 years). The overall local tumor control rate was 93.1% (295 of 317). Of the 317 patients, 72 had a partial response on CT/MRI and 223 (70.4%) remained stable. At a median of 4.5 years after FSRT, 22 patients (6.9%) had local tumor progression on MRI. Local tumor failure was significantly greater in patients with WHO Grade 2 meningioma (p 60 cm 3 had a recurrence rate of 15.5% vs. 4.3% for those with a tumor volume of ≤60 cm 3 (p < 0.001). In 42.9% of the patients, preexisting neurologic deficits improved. Worsening of preexisting neurologic symptoms occurred in 8.2%. Eight patients developed new clinical symptoms, such as reduced vision, trigeminal neuralgia, and intermittent tinnitus located at the side of the irradiated meningioma after FSRT. Conclusion: These data have demonstrated that FSRT is an effective and safe treatment modality for local control of meningioma with a low risk of significant late toxicity. We identified the tumor volume, indication for FSRT, and histologic features of the meningioma as statistically significant prognostic factors

Electronic Prognostics for Vehicle Health Management, Phase I

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National Aeronautics and Space Administration — All electronic systems are prone to wear-out and eventual failure and this has direct implications for Vehicle Health Management for NASA with its long space...

Simplified prognostic model for critically ill patients in resource limited settings in South Asia

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Haniffa, Rashan; Mukaka, Mavuto; Munasinghe, Sithum Bandara; de Silva, Ambepitiyawaduge Pubudu; Jayasinghe, Kosala Saroj Amarasiri; Beane, Abi; de Keizer, Nicolette; Dondorp, Arjen M.

2017-01-01

Background: Current critical care prognostic models are predominantly developed in high-income countries (HICs) and may not be feasible in intensive care units (ICUs) in lower-and middle-income countries (LMICs). Existing prognostic models cannot be applied without validation in LMICs as the

Aggressive fibromatosis - impact of prognostic variables on ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Objective. To determine the impact of prognostic variables on local control in patients with aggressive fibromatosis treated with or without radiation. Materials and methods. Forty-two patients presenting to the combined sarcoma clinic at Johannesburg Hospital with aggressive fibromatosis from 1990 to 2003 were analysed ...

Prognostic significance of radionuclide-assessed right ventricular function in dilated cardiomyopathy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ohno, Akira; Nishimura, Tsunehiko; Uehara, Toshiisa; Shimonagata, Tsuyoshi; Kumita, Shinichiro; Ogawa, Youji; Nagata, Seiki; Miyatake, Kunio

1991-01-01

To assess the prognostic significance of right ventricular function in dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM), we studied consecutive 57 DCM patients. There were 41 men and 16 women, whose mean age was 48 years (range 3-68 years). The mean left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) in all patients was 29±11%, and the mean interval from the onset of symptom of cardiac failure (CHF history) was 4 years (range 0-33 years). With follow-up of 3.8 years, five patients had died until the first year, and 14 had died until the third year. By using multivariate regression analysis, there were no prognostic significance in clinical parameters such as age, CHF history, sex, atrial fibrillation, except for NYHA class, and medication at the third year. In survival curves according to Kaplan-Meier method, right ventricular ejection fraction (RVEF) and mean pulmonary artery (PA) had predictive value (p<0.05), while LVEF did not. The patients with RVEF<45% had poor survival rate compared to those with RVEF≥45%. The patients with RVEF<45% showed lower LVEF and left ventricular end-systolic volume index. RVEF may offer prognostic predictive value through the effect of not only mean PA but also left ventricular parameter. In conclusion, radionuclide assessment of right ventricular function should be valuable for the prognostic evaluation of DCM patients. (author)

Treatment Outcome and Prognostic Molecular Markers of Supratentorial Primitive Neuroectodermal Tumors.

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Seo Hee Choi

Full Text Available To identify prognostic factors and define the optimal management of patients with supratentorial primitive neuroectodermal tumors (sPNETs, we investigated treatment outcomes and explored the prognostic value of specific molecular markers.A total of 47 consecutive patients with pathologically confirmed sPNETs between May 1985 and June 2012 were included. Immunohistochemical analysis of LIN28, OLIG2, and Rad51 expression was performed and correlated with clinical outcome.With a median follow-up of 70 months, 5-year overall survival (OS and progression-free survival (PFS was 55.5% and 40%, respectively, for all patients. Age, surgical extent, and radiotherapy were significant prognostic factors for OS and PFS. Patients who received initially planned multimodal treatment without interruption (i.e., radiotherapy and surgery (≥subtotal resection, with or without chemotherapy showed significantly higher 5-year OS (71.2% and PFS (63.1%. In 29 patients with available tumor specimens, tumors with high expression of either LIN28 or OLIG2 or elevated level of Rad51 were significantly associated with poorer prognosis.We found that multimodal treatment improved outcomes for sPNET patients, especially when radiotherapy and ≥subtotal resection were part of the treatment regimen. Furthermore, we confirmed the prognostic significance of LIN28 and OLIG2 and revealed the potential role of Rad51 in sPNETs.

Prognostic significance of radionuclide-assessed right ventricular function in dilated cardiomyopathy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ohno, Akira; Nishimura, Tsunehiko; Uehara, Toshiisa; Shimonagata, Tsuyoshi; Kumita, Shinichiro; Ogawa, Youji; Nagata, Seiki; Miyatake, Kunio [National Cardiovascular Center, Suita, Osaka (Japan)

1991-09-01

To assess the prognostic significance of right ventricular function in dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM), we studied consecutive 57 DCM patients. There were 41 men and 16 women, whose mean age was 48 years (range 3-68 years). The mean left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) in all patients was 29{+-}11%, and the mean interval from the onset of symptom of cardiac failure (CHF history) was 4 years (range 0-33 years). With follow-up of 3.8 years, five patients had died until the first year, and 14 had died until the third year. By using multivariate regression analysis, there were no prognostic significance in clinical parameters such as age, CHF history, sex, atrial fibrillation, except for NYHA class, and medication at the third year. In survival curves according to Kaplan-Meier method, right ventricular ejection fraction (RVEF) and mean pulmonary artery (PA) had predictive value (p<0.05), while LVEF did not. The patients with RVEF<45% had poor survival rate compared to those with RVEF{>=}45%. The patients with RVEF<45% showed lower LVEF and left ventricular end-systolic volume index. RVEF may offer prognostic predictive value through the effect of not only mean PA but also left ventricular parameter. In conclusion, radionuclide assessment of right ventricular function should be valuable for the prognostic evaluation of DCM patients. (author).

Histology-Based Expression Profiling Yields Novel Prognostic Markers in Human Glioblastoma

Science.gov (United States)

Dong, Shumin; Nutt, Catherine L.; Betensky, Rebecca A.; Stemmer-Rachamimov, Anat O.; Denko, Nicholas C.; Ligon, Keith L.; Rowitch, David H.; Louis, David N.

2006-01-01

Although the prognosis for patients with glioblastoma is poor, survival is variable, with some patients surviving longer than others. For this reason, there has been longstanding interest in the identi-fication of prognostic markers for glioblastoma. We hypothesized that specific histologic features known to correlate with malignancy most likely express molecules that are directly related to the aggressive behavior of these tumors. We further hypothesized that such molecules could be used as biomarkers to predict behavior in a manner that might add prognostic power to sole histologic observation of the feature. We reasoned that perinecrotic tumor cell palisading, which denotes the most aggressive forms of malignant gliomas, would be a striking histologic feature on which to test this hypothesis. We therefore used laser capture microdissection and oligonucleotide arrays to detect molecules differentially expressed in perinecrotic palisades. A set of RNAs (including POFUT2, PTDSR, PLOD2, ATF5, and HK2) that were differentially expressed in 3 initially studied, micro-dissected glioblastomas also provided prognostic information in an independent set of 28 glioblastomas that did not all have perinecrotic palisades. On validation in a second, larger independent series, this approach could be applied to other human glioma types to derive tissue biomarkers that could offer ancillary prognostic and predictive information alongside standard histopathologic examination. PMID:16254489

Serum amyloid A as a prognostic marker in melanoma identified by proteomic profiling.

Science.gov (United States)

Findeisen, Peter; Zapatka, Marc; Peccerella, Teresa; Matzk, Heike; Neumaier, Michael; Schadendorf, Dirk; Ugurel, Selma

2009-05-01

Currently known prognostic serum biomarkers of melanoma are powerful in metastatic disease, but weak in early-stage patients. This study was aimed to identify new prognostic biomarkers of melanoma by serum mass spectrometry (MS) proteomic profiling, and to validate candidates compared with established markers. Two independent sets of serum samples from 596 melanoma patients were investigated. The first set (stage I = 102; stage IV = 95) was analyzed by matrix assisted laser desorption and ionization time of flight (MALDI TOF) MS for biomarkers differentiating between stage I and IV. In the second set (stage I = 98; stage II = 91; stage III = 87; stage IV = 103), the serum concentrations of the candidate marker serum amyloid A (SAA) and the known biomarkers S100B, lactate dehydrogenase, and C reactive protein (CRP) were measured using immunoassays. MALDI TOF MS revealed a peak at m/z 11.680 differentiating between stage I and IV, which could be identified as SAA. High peak intensities at m/z 11.680 correlated with poor survival. In univariate analysis, SAA was a strong prognostic marker in stage I to III (P = .043) and stage IV (P = .000083) patients. Combination of SAA and CRP increased the prognostic impact to P = .011 in early-stage (I to III) patients. Multivariate analysis revealed sex, stage, tumor load, S100B, SAA, and CRP as independent prognostic factors, with an interaction between SAA and CRP. In stage I to III patients, SAA combined with CRP was superior to S100B in predicting patients' progression-free and overall survival. SAA combined with CRP might be used as prognostic serological biomarkers in early-stage melanoma patients, helping to discriminate low-risk patients from high-risk patients needing adjuvant treatment.

The Nigeria wealth distribution and health seeking behaviour: evidence from the 2012 national HIV/AIDS and reproductive health survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Fagbamigbe, Adeniyi F; Bamgboye, Elijah A; Yusuf, Bidemi O; Akinyemi, Joshua O; Issa, Bolakale K; Ngige, Evelyn; Amida, Perpetua; Bashorun, Adebobola; Abatta, Emmanuel

2015-01-01

Recently, Nigeria emerged as the largest economy in Africa and the 26th in the world. However, a pertinent question is how this new economic status has impacted on the wealth and health of her citizens. There is a dearth of empirical study on the wealth distribution in Nigeria which could be important in explaining the general disparities in their health seeking behavior. An adequate knowledge of Nigeria wealth distribution will no doubt inform policy makers in their decision making to improve the quality of life of Nigerians. This study is a retrospective analysis of the assets of household in Nigeria collected during the 2012 National HIV/AIDS and Reproductive Health Survey (NARHS Plus 2). We used the principal component analysis methods to construct wealth quintiles across households in Nigeria. At 5% significance level, we used ANOVA to determine differences in some health outcomes across the WQs and chi-square test to assess association between WQs and some reproductive health seeking behaviours. The wealth quintiles were found to be internally valid and coherent. However, there is a wide gap in the reproductive health seeking behavior of household members across the wealth quintiles with members of households in lower quintiles having lesser likelihood (33.0%) to receive antenatal care than among those in the highest quintiles (91.9%). While only 3% were currently using modern contraceptives in the lowest wealth quintile, it was 17.4% among the highest wealth quintile (p wealth quintiles showed a great disparity in the standard of living of Nigerian households across geo-political zones, states and rural-urban locations which had greatly influenced household health seeking behavior.

Bipolar disorder: The importance of clinical assessment in identifying prognostic factors - An Audit. Part 1: An analysis of potential prognostic factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Verdolini, Norma; Dean, Jonathon; Elisei, Sandro; Quartesan, Roberto; Zaman, Rashid; Agius, Mark

2014-11-01

Prognostic factors of bipolar disorder must be identified to assist in staging and treatment, and this may be done primarily during the initial psychiatric assessment. In fact, most of the prognostic factors, which determine disease outcome, could be detected from simple but often-unrecorded questions asked during the psychiatric clinic visit. We collected data from the clinical notes of 70 bipolar outpatients seen at the initial psychiatric assessment clinic about socio-demographic and clinical factors to determine whether various factors had relevance to prevalence, prognosis, or outcome. The sample comprised 16 bipolar I (22.9%) and 54 bipolar II (77.1%) outpatients; a psychiatric comorbidity was noted in 26 patients (37.1%). 60.9% (42 patients) reported anxiety features and 12 patients (17.6%) were noted to have obsessive-compulsive characteristics. Percentages reported in our results are of the sample for which the data was available. Anhedonia is a depressive feature that was present in most of the population where this data was available (92.2%, 59 patients) and 81.8% (54 patients) reported suicidal thoughts during a depressive episode. 74.6% (47 patients) had a family history of bipolar disorder, depression, suicide or psychosis. 27 patients (39.7%) reported current alcohol use and 14 patients (22.6%) current illicit drug use. A comparison between 10 prognostic factors found that only the correlations between current illicit drug use/previous illicit drug use (χ(2)=11.471, Palcohol use/previous alcohol use (χ(2)=31.510, Palcohol use (χ(2)=5.071, P=0.023) and previous alcohol use/family history (χ(2)=4.309, P=0.037) were almost statistically significant. 17 patients (24.3%) of the 70 bipolar patients were assigned to a care coordinator; we have evaluated the possible differences between the patients with or without a care coordinator on the basis of the presence of 10 possible prognostic factors and found no statistically significant differences between

A Survey of Metrics for Performance Evaluation of Prognostics

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National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Prognostics is an emerging concept in condition basedmaintenance(CBM)ofcriticalsystems.Alongwith developing the fundamentals of being able to confidently predict...

Prognostics for Steam Generator Tube Rupture using Markov Chain model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Gibeom; Heo, Gyunyoung; Kim, Hyeonmin

2016-01-01

This paper will describe the prognostics method for evaluating and forecasting the ageing effect and demonstrate the procedure of prognostics for the Steam Generator Tube Rupture (SGTR) accident. Authors will propose the data-driven method so called MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) which is preferred to the physical-model method in terms of flexibility and availability. Degradation data is represented as growth of burst probability over time. Markov chain model is performed based on transition probability of state. And the state must be discrete variable. Therefore, burst probability that is continuous variable have to be changed into discrete variable to apply Markov chain model to the degradation data. The Markov chain model which is one of prognostics methods was described and the pilot demonstration for a SGTR accident was performed as a case study. The Markov chain model is strong since it is possible to be performed without physical models as long as enough data are available. However, in the case of the discrete Markov chain used in this study, there must be loss of information while the given data is discretized and assigned to the finite number of states. In this process, original information might not be reflected on prediction sufficiently. This should be noted as the limitation of discrete models. Now we will be studying on other prognostics methods such as GPM (General Path Model) which is also data-driven method as well as the particle filer which belongs to physical-model method and conducting comparison analysis

Expression and prognostic significance of lysozyme in male breast cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Serra, Carlos; Baltasar, Aniceto; Medrano, Justo; Vizoso, Francisco; Alonso, Lorena; Rodríguez, Juan C; González, Luis O; Fernández, María; Lamelas, María L; Sánchez, Luis M; García-Muñiz, José L

2002-01-01

Lysozyme, one of the major protein components of human milk that is also synthesized by a significant percentage of breast carcinomas, is associated with lesions that have a favorable outcome in female breast cancer. Here we evaluate the expression and prognostic value of lysozyme in male breast cancer (MBC). Lysozyme expression was examined by immunohistochemical methods in a series of 60 MBC tissue sections and in 15 patients with gynecomastia. Staining was quantified using the HSCORE (histological score) system, which considers both the intensity and the percentage of cells staining at each intensity. Prognostic value of lysozyme was retrospectively evaluated by multivariate analysis taking into account conventional prognostic factors. Lysozyme immunostaining was negative in all cases of gynecomastia. A total of 27 of 60 MBC sections (45%) stained positively for this protein, but there were clear differences among them with regard to the intensity and percentage of stained cells. Statistical analysis showed that lysozyme HSCORE values in relation to age, tumor size, nodal status, histological grade, estrogen receptor status, metastasis and histological type did not increase the statistical significance. Univariate analysis confirmed that both nodal involvement and lysozyme values were significant predictors of short-term relapse-free survival. Multivariate analysis, according to Cox's regression model, also showed that nodal status and lysozyme levels were significant independent indicators of short-term relapse-free survival. Tumor expression of lysozyme is associated with lesions that have an unfavorable outcome in male breast cancer. This milk protein may be a new prognostic factor in patients with breast cancer

APNG as a prognostic marker in patients with glioblastoma

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fosmark, Sigurd; Hellwege, Sofie; Dahlrot, Rikke H

2017-01-01

AIM: Expression of the base excision repair enzyme alkylpurine-DNA-N-glycosylase (APNG) has been correlated to temozolomide resistance. Our aim was to evaluate the prognostic value of APNG in a population-based cohort with 242 gliomas including 185 glioblastomas (GBMs). Cellular heterogeneity...... of GBMs was taken into account by excluding APNG expression in non-tumor cells from the analysis. METHODS: APNG expression was evaluated using automated image analysis and a novel quantitative immunohistochemical (IHC) assay (qIHC), where APNG protein expression was evaluated through countable dots. Non...... was an independent prognostic factor among patients with a methylated MGMT promoter. We expect that APNG qIHC can potentially identify GBM patients who will not benefit from treatment with temozolomide....

Statistical methods for the assessment of prognostic biomarkers(part II): calibration and re-classification

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tripepi, Giovanni; Jager, Kitty J.; Dekker, Friedo W.; Zoccali, Carmine

2010-01-01

Calibration is the ability of a prognostic model to correctly estimate the probability of a given event across the whole range of prognostic estimates (for example, 30% probability of death, 40% probability of myocardial infarction, etc.). The key difference between calibration and discrimination is

Socioeconomic inequalities in prognostic markers of non-Hodgkin lymphoma: analysis of a national clinical database

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Frederiksen, Birgitte Lidegaard; Brown, Peter de Nully; Dalton, Susanne Oksbjerg

2011-01-01

in histological subgroups reflecting aggressiveness of disease among the social groups. One of the most likely mechanisms of the social difference is longer delay in those with low socioeconomic position. The findings of social inequality in prognostic markers in non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) patients could already......The survival of non-Hodgkin lymphoma patients strongly depends on a range of prognostic factors. This registry-based clinical cohort study investigates the relation between socioeconomic position and prognostic markers in 6234 persons included in a national clinical database in 2000-2008, Denmark....... Several measures of individual socioeconomic position were achieved from Statistics Denmark. The risk of being diagnosed with advanced disease, as expressed by the six prognostic markers (Ann Arbor stage III or IV, more than one extranodal lesion, elevated serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), performance...

Geographic distribution of need and access to health care in rural population: an ecological study in Iran

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Najafi Behzad

2011-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Introduction Equity in access to and utilization of health services is a common goal of policy-makers in most countries. The current study aimed to evaluate the distribution of need and access to health care services among Iran's rural population between 2006 and 2009. Methods Census data on population's characteristics in each province were obtained from the Statistical Centre of Iran and National Organization for civil registration. Data about the Rural Health Houses (RHHs were obtained from the Ministry of Health. The Health Houses-to-rural population ratio (RHP, crude birth rate (CBR and crude mortality rate (CMR in rural population were calculated in order to compare their distribution among the provinces. Lorenz curves of RHHs, CMR and CBR were plotted and their decile ratio, Gini Index and Index of Dissimilarity were calculated. Moreover, Spearman rank-order correlation was used to examine the relation between RHHs and CMR and CBR. Results There were substantial differences in RHHs, CMR and CBR across the provinces. CMR and CBR experienced changes toward more equal distributions between 2006 and 2009, while inverse trend was seen for RHHs. Excluding three provinces with markedly changes in data between 2006 and 2009 as outliers, did not change observed trends. Moreover; there was a significant positive relationship between CMR and RHP in 2009 and a significant negative association between CBR and RHP in 2006 and 2009. When three provinces with outliers were excluded, these significant associations were disappeared. Conclusion Results showed that there were significant variations in the distribution of RHHs, CMR and CBR across the country. Moreover, the distribution of RHHs did not reflect the needs for health care in terms of CMR and CBR in the study period.

Decision Criteria for Distributed Versus Non-Distributed Information Systems in the Health Care Environment

Science.gov (United States)

McGinnis, John W.

1980-01-01

The very same technological advances that support distributed systems have also dramatically increased the efficiency and capabilities of centralized systems making it more complex for health care managers to select the “right” system architecture to meet their particular needs. How this selection can be made with a reasonable degree of managerial comfort is the focus of this paper. The approach advocated is based on experience in developing the Tri-Service Medical Information System (TRIMIS) program. Along with this technical standards and configuration management procedures were developed that provided the necessary guidance to implement the selected architecture and to allow it to change in a controlled way over its life cycle.

Prognostic Role of Carcinoembryonic Antigen Level after Preoperative Chemoradiotherapy in Patients with Rectal Cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Huh, Jung Wook; Yun, Seong Hyeon; Kim, Seok Hyung; Park, Yoon Ah; Cho, Yong Beom; Kim, Hee Cheol; Lee, Woo Yong; Park, Hee Chul; Choi, Doo Ho; Park, Joon Oh; Park, Young Suk; Chun, Ho-Kyung

2018-05-29

The prognostic role of post-chemoradiotherapy (CRT) carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level is not clear. We evaluated the prognostic significance of post-CRT CEA level in patients with rectal cancer after preoperative CRT. We reviewed 659 consecutive patients who underwent preoperative CRT and total mesorectal excision for non-metastatic rectal cancer. Patients were categorized into two groups according to post-CRT serum CEA level: low CEA (level was 1.7 ng/mL (range, 0.1-207.0). A high post-CRT level was significantly associated with ypStage, ypT category, tumor regression grade, and pre-CRT CEA level. The 5-year overall survival rate of the 659 patients was 87.8% with a median follow-up period of 57.0 months (range, 1.4-176.4). When the post-CRT CEA groups were divided into groups according to pre-CRT CEA level, the 5-year overall survival rates were significantly different (P level was an independent prognostic factor for overall survival. Multivariate analysis revealed that operation method, differentiation, perineural invasion, postoperative chemotherapy, tumor regression grade, and post-CRT CEA level were independent prognostic factors for overall survival. The level of serum CEA after preoperative CRT was an independent prognostic factor for overall survival in patients with rectal cancer.

[Prognostic estimation in critical patients. Validation of a new and very simple system of prognostic estimation of survival in an intensive care unit].

Science.gov (United States)

Abizanda, R; Padron, A; Vidal, B; Mas, S; Belenguer, A; Madero, J; Heras, A

2006-04-01

To make the validation of a new system of prognostic estimation of survival in critical patients (EPEC) seen in a multidisciplinar Intensive care unit (ICU). Prospective analysis of a patient cohort seen in the ICU of a multidisciplinar Intensive Medicine Service of a reference teaching hospital with 19 beds. Four hundred eighty four patients admitted consecutively over 6 months in 2003. Data collection of a basic minimum data set that includes patient identification data (gender, age), reason for admission and their origin, prognostic estimation of survival by EPEC, MPM II 0 and SAPS II (the latter two considered as gold standard). Mortality was evaluated on hospital discharge. EPEC validation was done with analysis of its discriminating capacity (ROC curve), calibration of its prognostic capacity (Hosmer Lemeshow C test), resolution of the 2 x 2 Contingency tables around different probability values (20, 50, 70 and mean value of prognostic estimation). The standardized mortality rate (SMR) for each one of the methods was calculated. Linear regression of the EPEC regarding the MPM II 0 and SAPS II was established and concordance analyses were done (Bland-Altman test) of the prediction of mortality by the three systems. In spite of an apparently good linear correlation, similar accuracy of prediction and discrimination capacity, EPEC is not well-calibrated (no likelihood of death greater than 50%) and the concordance analyses show that more than 10% of the pairs were outside the 95% confidence interval. In spite of its ease of application and calculation and of incorporating delay of admission in ICU as a variable, EPEC does not offer any predictive advantage on MPM II 0 or SAPS II, and its predictions adapt to reality worse.

Colorectal Cancer: Prognostic Values

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Suzana Manxhuka-Kerliu

2009-02-01

Full Text Available After lung cancer colorectal cancer (Cc is ranked the second, as a cause of cancer-related death. The purpose of this study was to analyze the Cc cases in our material with respect to all prognostic values including histological type and grade, vascular invasion, perineural invasion, and tumor border features. There were investigated 149 cases of resection specimen with colorectal cancer, which were fixed in buffered neutral formalin and embedded in paraffin. Tissue sections (4(µm thick were cut and stained with H&E. Adenocarcinoma was the most frequent histological type found in 85,90% of cases, in 60,94% of males and 39,06% of females; squamous cell carcinoma in 7,38%, in 63,63% of males and 36,36% of females; mucinous carcinoma in 4,68%, in 57,15% of males and 42,85% of females; while adenosquamous carcinoma, undifferentiated carcinoma and carcinoma in situ in 0,71% of cases each. Dukes' classification was used in order to define the depth of invasion. Dukes B was found in 68,45% of cases, whereas in 31,54% of cases Dukes C was found. As far as histological grading is concerned, Cc was mostly with moderate differentiation (75,16% with neither vascular nor perineural invasion. Resection margins were in all cases free of tumor. Our data indicate that the pathologic features of the resection specimen constitute the most powerful predictors of postoperative outcome in Cc. Dukes' stage and degree of differentiation provide independent prognostic information in Cc. However, differentiation should be assessed by the worst pattern.

Quantitative histopathology in the prognostic evaluation of patients with transitional cell carcinoma of the urinary bladder

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sasaki, M; Sørensen, Flemming Brandt; Fukuzawa, S

1993-01-01

BACKGROUND: Morphologic grading of malignancy is considered to be of prognostic value in patients with transitional cell carcinomas of the urinary bladder (TCC). This qualitative approach is, however, associated with low reproducibility. Grading of malignancy can be carried out on a reproducible......, quantitative scale. METHODS: A retrospective, prognostic study of 110 patients treated for TCC in clinical Stages Ta-T4 (median follow-up time, 6 years) was performed, evaluating various grading techniques. Unbiased estimates of the volume-weighted mean nuclear volume (nuclear vV), nuclear volume fraction...... of nuclear vV are prognostically superior to morphologic grading of malignancy in noninvasive TCC, whereas both morphologically and quantitatively based malignancy grading are without prognostic value in invasive TCC....

Quantitative histopathology in the prognostic evaluation of patients with transitional cell carcinoma of the urinary bladder

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sasaki, M; Sørensen, Flemming Brandt; Fukuzawa, S

1993-01-01

BACKGROUND: Morphologic grading of malignancy is considered to be of prognostic value in patients with transitional cell carcinomas of the urinary bladder (TCC). This qualitative approach is, however, associated with low reproducibility. Grading of malignancy can be carried out on a reproducible......, quantitative scale.METHODS: A retrospective, prognostic study of 110 patients treated for TCC in clinical Stages Ta-T4 (median follow-up time, 6 years) was performed, evaluating various grading techniques. Unbiased estimates of the volume-weighted mean nuclear volume (nuclear vV), nuclear volume fraction...... of nuclear vV are prognostically superior to morphologic grading of malignancy in noninvasive TCC, whereas both morphologically and quantitatively based malignancy grading are without prognostic value in invasive TCC....

Prognostic variables in patients with cirrhosis and oesophageal varices without prior bleeding

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller, S; Bendtsen, F; Christensen, E

1994-01-01

serum bilirubin (p 10 (p associated with a higher risk. In conclusion, the results support the prognostic value of metabolic variables as described earlier...... a significant relation with an increased risk of bleeding or death: high plasma volume (p 10 (p .... The prognostic significance of central circulation time stresses the importance of the hyperdynamic systemic circulation in assessing the increased risk of bleeding or death.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)...

The prognostic importance of lung function in patients admitted with heart failure

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Iversen, Kasper Karmark; Kjaergaard, Jesper; Akkan, Dilek

2010-01-01

The purpose of the present study was to determine the prognostic importance for all-cause mortality of lung function variables obtained by spirometry in an unselected group of patients admitted with heart failure (HF).......The purpose of the present study was to determine the prognostic importance for all-cause mortality of lung function variables obtained by spirometry in an unselected group of patients admitted with heart failure (HF)....

Prognostic factors for differentiated thyroid carcinoma in young patients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Handkiewicz-Junak, D.; Kalemba, B.; Roskosz, J.; Kukulska, A.; Puch, Z.; Jarzab, B.; Wloch, J.; Lange, D.

2001-01-01

Standard therapy of differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) comprises thyroid surgery, radioiodine treatment and L-thyroxine suppressive treatment. However, in the case of young patients the extent of surgery and the need for radioiodine treatment are questioned by some authors on the basis of the overall good prognosis in this group. The aim of the study was to perform a retrospective analysis of prognostic factors for differentiated thyroid cancer in patients in the first three decades of their life. The study included 274 patients who were younger than 28 years at the day of diagnosis of DTC and were observed for a mean time of 5 years. Uni- and multivariate analysis of prognostic factors for disease - free survival was performed with Cox's regression method. The actuarial survival rate was 100%, the 5 and 10-year actuarial disease free survival was 85% and 75%, respectively. In a multivariate analysis lymph node metastases, the extent of surgery and radioiodine therapy were estimated as statistically significant, independent prognostic factors for DTC relapse. Radical treatment of DTC more advanced than pT1NOMO should include total thyroidectomy and postoperative complementary radioiodine therapy. Such procedure is also justified in young patients, as it ensures a decrease of the risk of recurrence. (author)

Relationship between red blood cell distribution width, bilirubin, and clinical characteristics of patients with gastric cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Wei, T-T; Wang, L-L; Yin, J-R; Liu, Y-T; Qin, B-D; Li, J-Y; Yin, X; Zhou, L; Zhong, R-Q

2017-10-01

Red blood cell distribution width (RDW) and bilirubin have been proved to be prognostic factors for various types of cancer. However, their prognostic value in patients with gastric cancer (GC) remains largely unknown. To verify whether RDW and bilirubin are prognostic factors for patients with GC, we performed a cross-sectional study to analyze the relationship between RDW, bilirubin, and the clinical characteristics of patients with GC. Medical records of all newly diagnosed and pathologically proved patients with GC admitted to Changzheng Hospital between January 2016 and July 2016 were retrospectively reviewed. The relationship between RDW, bilirubin, and the clinical characteristics of patients with GC was analyzed. A total of 144 patients with GC were enrolled. Patients with GC had significantly higher RDW than healthy controls, even after adjusting for hemoglobin, while total bilirubin (TBIL), direct bilirubin (DBIL) and indirect bilirubin (IBIL) were significantly decreased. Furthermore, RDW and bilirubin were significantly correlated with tumor stage, as well as carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9). Our study indicated that RDW and bilirubin could be potential prognostic factors for patients of GC. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Distribution of Health Services in Iran Health Care System: A Case Study at East Azerbaijan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hassan Almaspoor-khangah

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Background: It is necessary that various aspects of health information and statistics are identified and measured since health problems are getting more complex day by day. Objective: This study is aimed to investigate the distribution of health services in the health care system in Iran and the case of study is East Azerbaijan province. Methods: This research was a retrospective, descriptive, cross-sectional study. The statistical population included all health service providers in East Azerbaijan Province in the public, private, charity, military, social security, and NGO sectors. In this study, the data from all functional health sectors, including hospitals, health centers, and clinical, rehabilitation centers and all clinics and private offices were studied during 2014. The data relevant to performance were collected according to a pre-determined format (researcher- built checklist which was approved by five professionals and experts Health Services Management (content validity. Results: The study findings showed that the public sector by 45.28% accounted for the highest share of provided services and the private sector, social security, military institutions, charities and NGOs institutions by 25.47%, 18.92%, 4.37%, 3.3%, and 2.66% next rank in providing health services in East Azerbaijan province have been allocated. Conclusion: The results show that most of the health services in East Azerbaijan Province belongs to the public sector and the private sector has managed to develop its services in some parts surpassed the public sector. According to the study findings, Policies should be aimed to create balance and harmony in the provision of services among all service providers.

[Expression of BAG3 Gene in Acute Myeloid Leukemia and Its Prognostic Value].

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Hua-Yuan; Fu, Yuan; Wu, Wei; Xu, Jia-Dai; Chen, Ting-Mei; Qiao, Chun; Li, Jian-Yong; Liu, Peng

2015-08-01

To investigate the expression of BAG3 gene in acue myeloid leukemia (AML) and its prognostic value. Real-time quantitative RT-PCR was used to detect the expression of BAG3 mRNA in 88 previously untreated AML patients. The corelation of BAG3 expression level with clinical characteristics and known prognostic markers of AML was analyzed. In 88 patients with AML, the expression of BAG3 mRNA in NPMI mutated AML patients was obviously lower than that in NPMI unmutated patients (P = 0.018). The expression level of BAG3 mRNA did not related to clinical parameters, such as age, sex, FAB subtype, WBC count, extra-modullary presentation, and to prognostic factors including cytogenetics, FLT3-ITD, c-kit and CEBPα mutation status (P > 0.05). The expression level of BAG3 had no obvious effect on complete remission (CR) of patients in first treatment. The expression level of BAG3 in non-M3 patients was higher than that in relapsed patients (P = 0.036). The expression level of BAG3 had no effect on overall survival (OS) of patients. The expression level of BAG3 does not correlated with known-prognostic markers of AML, only the expression level of BAG3 in NPM1 mutated patients is lower than that in NPM1 unmutated patients. The expression level of BAG3 has no effect on OS of AML patients, the BAG3 can not be difined as a prognostic marker in AML.

Prognostic significance of diagnostic laparoscopy for spontaneous fertility

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mol, B. W.; Swart, P.; Bossuyt, P. M.; van der Veen, F.

1999-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To determine the prognostic significance of laparoscopy results for fertility outcome. STUDY DESIGN: Consecutive patients undergoing hysterosalpingography and laparoscopy for subfertility in our department between May 1985 and November 1987 were identified from medical records. The impact

Proposal of a clinical typing system and generation of a prognostic model in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma from Southern China.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Peng; Chen, Cui; Chen, Xin-Lin; Cheng, Yi-Kan; Zeng, Lei; Zeng, Zhi-Jian; Liu, Li-Zhi; Su, Yong; Gu, Mo-Fa

2014-01-01

To propose a novel clinical typing classification focusing on the distinct progression patterns of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC), to supplement our knowledge of the clinical-biological behavior, to provide useful knowledge for treatment planning, and to contribute to basic research in NPC. 632 consecutive patients were retrospectively reviewed and analyzed according to the novel typing system. We considered that NPC can be divided into 5 types as follows: limited (L), ascending (A), descending (D) ascending- descending (mixed) (AD), and distant metastasis types (M). The distribution of these clinical types, their association with Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) serology and prognostic value were explored. 55 (8.70%), 59 (9.34%), 177 (28.01%), 321 (50.79%) and 20 (3.16%) patients were classified as Type L, A, D, AD and M, respectively. EBV (VCA)-IgA titers, EBV early antigen (EA)-IgA serum titers, and capsid antigen lg(EBV DNA) were positively associated with the clinical typing (pTypes L, A, D, AD and M were 100, 100, 95.10, 88.20 and 59.30%, respectively (ptype, which were independent predictors of OS (multivariate Cox proportional model). The prognostic model stratified patients into 4 risk subgroups. The 3-year OS rates of the low, intermediate, high and extremely high risk groups were 99.5, 90.0, 85.5 and 53.2%, respectively (ptyping system and prognostic model can supplement TNM classification, and may help design novel treatment strategies, evaluate risk stratification and investigate the varied biological characteristics of NPC.

A study about trace element distribution in cancer tissue and serum of cancer patients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Jong In; Lee, Eun Joo; Jung, Young Joo

1993-01-01

Authers analyzed the trace element distribution of cancer tissue and its corresponding normal tissue and serum of preoperative and postoperative stage in gastric, colon, breast cancer patients. Zinc and rubidium were higher in concentration in breast cancer tissue than in normal tissue. As for the distribution of trace element in serum, bromine became about 10 times higher after gastric resection. This result can be applied to experimental carcinogenesis and to relationship with other prognostic factors. (Author)

Prognostic value of long non-coding RNA MALAT1 in cancer patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Yihua; Lu, Wei; Xu, Jinming; Shi, Yu; Zhang, Honghe; Xia, Dajing

2016-01-01

Metastasis associated in lung adenocarcinoma transcript 1 (MALAT1) was identified to be the first long non-coding RNA as a biomarker of independent prognostic value for early stage non-small cell lung cancer patient survival. In recent years, the association between upregulated tissue MALAT1 level and incidence of various cancers including bladder cancer, colorectal cancer, and renal cancer has been widely discussed. The aim of our present study was to assess the potential prognostic value of MALAT1 in various human cancers. PubMed, Embase, Ovid, and Cochrane Library databases were systematically searched, and eligible studies evaluating the prognostic value of MALAT1 in various cancers were included. Finally, 11 studies encompassing 1216 participants reporting with sufficient data were enrolled in the current meta-analysis. The pooled hazard ratio (HR) was 2.05 (95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.64-2.55, p < 0.01) for overall survival (OS) and 2.66 (95 % CI 1.86-3.80, p < 0.01) for disease-free survival (DFS). In conclusion, high tissue MALAT1 level was associated with an inferior clinical outcome in various cancers, suggesting that MALAT1 might serve as a potential prognostic biomarker for various cancers.

Systematic profiling of alternative splicing signature reveals prognostic predictor for ovarian cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Junyong; Chen, Zuhua; Yong, Lei

2018-02-01

The majority of genes are alternatively spliced and growing evidence suggests that alternative splicing is modified in cancer and is associated with cancer progression. Systematic analysis of alternative splicing signature in ovarian cancer is lacking and greatly needed. We profiled genome-wide alternative splicing events in 408 ovarian serous cystadenocarcinoma (OV) patients in TCGA. Seven types of alternative splicing events were curated and prognostic analyses were performed with predictive models and splicing network built for OV patients. Among 48,049 mRNA splicing events in 10,582 genes, we detected 2,611 alternative splicing events in 2,036 genes which were significant associated with overall survival of OV patients. Exon skip events were the most powerful prognostic factors among the seven types. The area under the curve of the receiver-operator characteristic curve for prognostic predictor, which was built with top significant alternative splicing events, was 0.937 at 2,000 days of overall survival, indicating powerful efficiency in distinguishing patient outcome. Interestingly, splicing correlation network suggested obvious trends in the role of splicing factors in OV. In summary, we built powerful prognostic predictors for OV patients and uncovered interesting splicing networks which could be underlying mechanisms. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

EVALUATION OF THE PROGNOSTIC VALUE OF THE ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Objectives To evaluate the role and prognostic value of the expression of epidermal growth factor receptors (EGFR) in serum and urine for the detection of human bladder cancer. Patients and Methods The study comprised 30 patients with newly diagnosed transitional cell carcinoma of the bladder and 10 normal volunteers ...

Prognostic factors for neckpain in general practice.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hoving, J.L.; Vet, H.C.W. de; Twisk, J.W.R.; Devillé, W.L.J.M.; Windt, D. van der; Koes, B.W.; Bouter, L.M.

2004-01-01

Prognostic studies on neck pain are scarce and are typically restricted to short-term follow-up only. In this prospective cohort study, indicators of short- and long-term outcomes of neck pain were identified that can easily be measured in general practice. Patients between 18 and 70 years of age,

Maximum Diameter and Number of Tumors as a New Prognostic Indicator of Colorectal Liver Metastases.

Science.gov (United States)

Yoshimoto, Toshiaki; Morine, Yuji; Imura, Satoru; Ikemoto, Tetsuya; Iwahashi, Syuichi; Saito, Y U; Yamada, Sinichiro; Ishikawa, Daichi; Teraoku, Hiroki; Yoshikawa, Masato; Higashijima, Jun; Takasu, Chie; Shimada, Mitsuo

2017-01-01

Surgical resection is currently considered the only potentially curative option as a treatment strategy of colorectal liver metastases (CRLM). However, the criteria for selection of resectable CRLM are not clear. The aim of this study was to confirm a new prognostic indicator of CRLM after hepatic resection. One hundred thirty nine patients who underwent initial surgical resection from 1994 to 2015 were investigated retrospectively. Prognostic factors of overall survival including the product of maximum diameter and number of metastases (MDN) were analyzed. Primary tumor differentiation, vessel invasion, lymph node (LN) metastasis, non-optimally resectable metastases, H score, grade of liver metastases, resection with non-curative intent and MDN were found to be prognostic factors of overall survival (OS). In multivariate analyses of clinicopathological features associated with OS, MDN and non-curative intent were independent prognostic factors. Patients with MDN ≥30 had shown significantly poorer prognosis than patients with MDN <30 in OS and relapse-free survival (RFS). MDN ≥30 is an independent prognostic factor of survival in patients with CRLM and optimal surgical criterion of hepatectomy for CRLM. Copyright© 2017, International Institute of Anticancer Research (Dr. George J. Delinasios), All rights reserved.

An inflammation-based cumulative prognostic score system in patients with diffuse large B cell lymphoma in rituximab era.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Feifei; Zhu, Jia; Lu, Suying; Zhen, Zijun; Wang, Juan; Huang, Junting; Ding, Zonghui; Zeng, Musheng; Sun, Xiaofei

2018-01-02

Systemic inflammatory parameters are associated with poor outcomes in malignant patients. Several inflammation-based cumulative prognostic score systems were established for various solid tumors. However, there is few inflammation based cumulative prognostic score system for patients with diffuse large B cell lymphoma (DLBCL). We retrospectively reviewed 564 adult DLBCL patients who had received rituximab, cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine and prednisolone (R-CHOP) therapy between Nov 1 2006 and Dec 30 2013 and assessed the prognostic significance of six systemic inflammatory parameters evaluated in previous studies by univariate and multivariate analysis:C-reactive protein(CRP), albumin levels, the lymphocyte-monocyte ratio (LMR), the neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio(NLR), the platelet-lymphocyte ratio(PLR)and fibrinogen levels. Multivariate analysis identified CRP, albumin levels and the LMR are three independent prognostic parameters for overall survival (OS). Based on these three factors, we constructed a novel inflammation-based cumulative prognostic score (ICPS) system. Four risk groups were formed: group ICPS = 0, ICPS = 1, ICPS = 2 and ICPS = 3. Advanced multivariate analysis indicated that the ICPS model is a prognostic score system independent of International Prognostic Index (IPI) for both progression-free survival (PFS) (p systemic inflammatory status was associated with clinical outcomes of patients with DLBCL in rituximab era. The ICPS model was shown to classify risk groups more accurately than any single inflammatory prognostic parameters. These findings may be useful for identifying candidates for further inflammation-related mechanism research or novel anti-inflammation target therapies.

Analysis of the distributional impact of out-of-pocket health payments: evidence from a public health insurance program for the poor in Mexico.

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Garcia-Diaz, Rocio; Sosa-Rubi, Sandra G; Sosa-Rub, Sandra G

2011-07-01

Many governments have health programs focused on improving health among the poor and these have an impact on out-of-pocket health payments made by individuals. Therefore, one of the objectives of these programs is to reach the poorest and reduce their out-of-pocket expenditure. In this paper we propose the distributional poverty impact approach to measure the poverty impact of out-of-pocket health payments of different health financing policies. This approach is comparable to the impoverishment methodology proposed by Wagstaff and van Doorslaer (2003) that compares poverty indices before and after out-of-pocket health payments. In order to escape the specification of a particular poverty index, we use the marginal dominance approach that uses non-intersecting curves and can rank poverty reducing health financing policies. We present an empirical application of the out-of-pocket health payments for an innovative social financing policy implemented in Mexico named Seguro Popular. The paper finds evidence that Seguro Popular program has a better distributional poverty impact when families face illness when compared to other poverty reducing policies. The empirical dominance approach uses data from Mexico in 2006 and considers international poverty standards of $2 per person per day. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cutaneous Lymphoma International Consortium Study of Outcome in Advanced Stages of Mycosis Fungoides and Sézary Syndrome: Effect of Specific Prognostic Markers on Survival and Development of a Prognostic Model

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Scarisbrick, Julia J.; Prince, H. Miles; Vermeer, Maarten H.; Quaglino, Pietro; Horwitz, Steven; Porcu, Pierluigi; Stadler, Rudolf; Wood, Gary S.; Beylot-Barry, Marie; Pham-Ledard, Anne; Foss, Francine; Girardi, Michael; Bagot, Martine; Michel, Laurence; Battistella, Maxime; Guitart, Joan; Kuzel, Timothy M.; Martinez-Escala, Maria Estela; Estrach, Teresa; Papadavid, Evangelia; Antoniou, Christina; Rigopoulos, Dimitis; Nikolaou, Vassilki; Sugaya, Makoto; Miyagaki, Tomomitsu; Gniadecki, Robert; Sanches, José Antonio; Cury-Martins, Jade; Miyashiro, Denis; Servitje, Octavio; Muniesa, Cristina; Berti, Emilio; Onida, Francesco; Corti, Laura; Hodak, Emilia; Amitay-Laish, Iris; Ortiz-Romero, Pablo L.; Rodríguez-Peralto, Jose L.; Knobler, Robert; Porkert, Stefanie; Bauer, Wolfgang; Pimpinelli, Nicola; Grandi, Vieri; Cowan, Richard; Rook, Alain; Kim, Ellen; Pileri, Alessandro; Patrizi, Annalisa; Pujol, Ramon M.; Wong, Henry; Tyler, Kelly; Stranzenbach, Rene; Querfeld, Christiane; Fava, Paolo; Maule, Milena; Willemze, Rein; Evison, Felicity; Morris, Stephen; Twigger, Robert; Talpur, Rakhshandra; Kim, Jinah; Ognibene, Grant; Li, Shufeng; Tavallaee, Mahkam; Hoppe, Richard T.; Duvic, Madeleine; Whittaker, Sean J.; Kim, Youn H.

2015-01-01

Purpose Advanced-stage mycosis fungoides (MF; stage IIB to IV) and Sézary syndrome (SS) are aggressive lymphomas with a median survival of 1 to 5 years. Clinical management is stage based; however, there is wide range of outcome within stages. Published prognostic studies in MF/SS have been single-center trials. Because of the rarity of MF/SS, only a large collaboration would power a study to identify independent prognostic markers. Patients and Methods Literature review identified the following 10 candidate markers: stage, age, sex, cutaneous histologic features of folliculotropism, CD30 positivity, proliferation index, large-cell transformation, WBC/lymphocyte count, serum lactate dehydrogenase, and identical T-cell clone in blood and skin. Data were collected at specialist centers on patients diagnosed with advanced-stage MF/SS from 2007. Each parameter recorded at diagnosis was tested against overall survival (OS). Results Staging data on 1,275 patients with advanced MF/SS from 29 international sites were included for survival analysis. The median OS was 63 months, with 2- and 5-year survival rates of 77% and 52%, respectively. The median OS for patients with stage IIB disease was 68 months, but patients diagnosed with stage III disease had slightly improved survival compared with patients with stage IIB, although patients diagnosed with stage IV disease had significantly worse survival (48 months for stage IVA and 33 months for stage IVB). Of the 10 variables tested, four (stage IV, age > 60 years, large-cell transformation, and increased lactate dehydrogenase) were independent prognostic markers for a worse survival. Combining these four factors in a prognostic index model identified the following three risk groups across stages with significantly different 5-year survival rates: low risk (68%), intermediate risk (44%), and high risk (28%). Conclusion To our knowledge, this study includes the largest cohort of patients with advanced-stage MF/SS and

Prognostic factors of follicular thyroid carcinoma.

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Ríos, Antonio; Rodríguez, José M; Ferri, Belén; Martínez-Barba, Enrique; Torregrosa, Núria M; Parrilla, Pascual

2015-01-01

Most prognostic studies in differentiated carcinoma have included a high number of papillary carcinomas and few follicular carcinomas, and not all of their conclusions therefore apply to the latter. To analyze the prognostic factors of follicular thyroid carcinoma. Patients with histological diagnosis of follicular carcinoma who had undergone potentially curative surgery, had no disseminated disease at diagnosis, and had been followed up for at least 5 years. Tumor recurrence was defined as: 1) tumor lesions with cytological analysis suggesting malignancy and/or 2) patients with total thyroidectomy with thyroglobulin levels >2 ng/mL. Clinical, therapeutic, and histological parameters were analyzed to assess prognostic factors. Recurrence was found in 25 (38%) of the 66 study patients during a follow-up period of 99 ± 38 months. Most patients with recurrence (n=20) had increased Tg levels without anatomical location, and were initially treated with radioactive I131. In the remaining 5 cases, surgical excision of the lesion was performed, and three patients required surgery during the follow-up period. Two patients died due to the disease (3%), and two other patients (3%) currently have distant metastases. Mean disease-free interval was 154 ± 14 months, and rates of disease-free patients at 5, 10, 15, and 20 years were 71, 58, 58, and 58% respectively. Clinical factors influencing recurrence included 1) age (p=0.0035); 2) sex (p=0.0114); and 3) cervical pain (p=0.0026). Histological/surgical factors associated with recurrence included 1) infiltration into neighboring structures (p=0.0000); 2) type of carcinoma (p=0.0000); 3) size (p=0.0162); 4) vascular invasion (p=0.0085); and 5) adenopathies (p=0.046). In the multivariate study, cervical pain (p=0.018) and extrathyroid invasion (p=0.045) continued to be significant factors. In follicular carcinoma, rates of disease-free patients are 71% at 5 years and 58% at 10 years, and the main predictive factors are presence

Clinical and prognostic significance of plasma fibrinogen in lung cancer

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Chen YS

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Objectives: Hyperfibrinogenemia is a common problem associated with various carcinomas. The recent studies have shown that high plasma fibrinogen concentration is associated with invasion, growth and metastases of cancer. Furthermore, the recent studies focus on the prognostic significance of fibrinogen in the patients with advanced NSCLC (stage IIIB -IV. However, the prognostic significance of the plasma fibrinogen levels in early stage NSCLC patients (stage I -IIIA still remains unclear. In addition, it remains unclear whether or not chemotherapy-induced changes in fibrinogen level relate to the prognosis. The aims of this study were to 1 further explore the relationship between the plasma fibrinogen concentration and the stage and metastases of lung cancer 2 evaluate the prognostic significance of the basal plasma fibrinogen level in patients with lung cancer 3 explore the prognostic value of the change in fibrinogen levels between pre and post-chemotherapy. Methods: In this retrospective study, the data from 370 patients with lung cancer were enrolled into this study. The plasma fibrinogen levels were compared with the clinical and prognostic significance of lung cancer. The association between the plasma fibrinogen level and clinical-prognostic characteristics were analyzed using SPSS 17.0 software. Results: 1 The median pre-treatment plasma fibrinogen levels were 4.20g/L. Pre-treatment plasma fibrinogen levels correlated significantly with gender (p = 0.013. A higher plasma fibrinogen concentration was associated with squamous cell carcinoma versus adenocarcinoma (4.83±1.50 g/L versus 4.15±1.30 g/L; P<0.001, there was a significant association between plasma fibrinogen level and metastases of lung cancer, pointing a higher plasma fibrinogen level in lymph nodes or distant organ metastases (p < 0.001. 2 Patients with low plasma fibrinogen concentration demonstrates higher overall survival compared with those with high plasma fibrinogen

Prognostic Importance of Pretransplant Functional Capacity After Allogeneic Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation.

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Jones, Lee W; Devlin, Sean M; Maloy, Molly A; Wood, William A; Tuohy, Sharlynn; Espiritu, Noel; Aquino, Jennifer; Kendig, Tiffany; Michalski, Meghan G; Gyurkocza, Boglarka; Schaffer, Wendy L; Ali, Benzar; Giralt, Sergio; Jakubowski, Ann A

2015-11-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the prognostic importance of functional capacity in patients undergoing allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) for hematological malignancies. Using a retrospective design, 407 patients completed a 6-minute walk distance (6 MWD) test to assess functional capacity before HCT; 193 (47%) completed a 6 MWD test after hospital discharge. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the risk of nonrelapse mortality (NRM) and overall survival (OS) according to the 6 MWD category (interval, 0.44-0.96) for a 6 MWD ≥ 400 m. A 6 MWD of ≥ 400 m provided incremental information on the prediction of NRM with adjustment for age (p = .032) but not KPS alone (p = .062) or adjustment for other prognostic markers (p = .099). A significant association was found between the 6 MWD and OS (p = .027). A 6 MWD of ≥ 400 m provided incremental information on the prediction of OS with adjustment for age (p = .032) but not for other prognostic markers (p > .05 for all). Patients presenting with a pre-HCT 6 MWD of information beyond that of traditional prognostic markers in HCT. The pretransplant 6-minute walk test is a significant univariate predictor of clinical outcomes in hematological patients beyond age but not beyond that of performance status. On this basis, 6-minute walk distance testing should not be considered part of the standard battery of assessments for risk stratification before hematopoietic cell transplantation. ©AlphaMed Press.

[Prognostic criteria of efficacy of programmed laparoscopic sanitation of the abdominal cavity in peritonitis].

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Salakhov, E K; Vlasov, A P; Bolotskyh, V A

To define prognostic criteria of efficacy of programmed laparoscopic sanitation of the abdominal cavity in peritonitis. There were 32 patients after programmed laparoscopic sanitation of abdominal cavity for peritonitis due to different acute surgical diseases. Subsequently 12 of them required relaparotomy due to poor effectiveness of laparoscopic sanitation. Comprehensive clinical examination and laboratory assessment of some indexes of homeostasis and oxidative status were conducted. Prognostic clinical and laboratory criteria of efficacy of laparoscopic abdominal sanitation were suggested after analysis of intraoperative data during primary surgery and laboratory values in the 1st postoperative day. The offered prognostic criteria allow to define further management of peritonitis patients after primary laparotomy.

Prognostic Factors for Cognitive Decline After Intracerebral Hemorrhage

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Benedictus, M.R.; Hochart, A.; Rossi, C.; Boulouis, G.; Henon, H.; van der Flier, W.M.; Cordonnier, C.

2015-01-01

Background and Purpose-Stroke and dementia are closely related, but no prospective study ever focused on poststroke cognitive decline in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). We aimed to determine prognostic factors for cognitive decline in patients with ICH. Methods-We prospectively

A comparison of the prognostic value of preoperative inflammation-based scores and TNM stage in patients with gastric cancer

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Pan QX

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Qun-Xiong Pan,* Zi-Jian Su,* Jian-Hua Zhang, Chong-Ren Wang, Shao-Ying KeDepartment of Oncosurgery, Quanzhou First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Quanzhou, Fujian, People’s Republic of China*These authors contributed equally to this workBackground: People’s Republic of China is one of the countries with the highest incidence of gastric cancer, accounting for 45% of all new gastric cancer cases in the world. Therefore, strong prognostic markers are critical for the diagnosis and survival of Chinese patients suffering from gastric cancer. Recent studies have begun to unravel the mechanisms linking the host inflammatory response to tumor growth, invasion and metastasis in gastric cancers. Based on this relationship between inflammation and cancer progression, several inflammation-based scores have been demonstrated to have prognostic value in many types of malignant solid tumors.Objective: To compare the prognostic value of inflammation-based prognostic scores and tumor node metastasis (TNM stage in patients undergoing gastric cancer resection.Methods: The inflammation-based prognostic scores were calculated for 207 patients with gastric cancer who underwent surgery. Glasgow prognostic score (GPS, neutrophil lymphocyte ratio (NLR, platelet lymphocyte ratio (PLR, prognostic nutritional index (PNI, and prognostic index (PI were analyzed. Linear trend chi-square test, likelihood ratio chi-square test, and receiver operating characteristic were performed to compare the prognostic value of the selected scores and TNM stage.Results: In univariate analysis, preoperative serum C-reactive protein (P<0.001, serum albumin (P<0.001, GPS (P<0.001, PLR (P=0.002, NLR (P<0.001, PI (P<0.001, PNI (P<0.001, and TNM stage (P<0.001 were significantly associated with both overall survival and disease-free survival of patients with gastric cancer. In multivariate analysis, GPS (P=0.024, NLR (P=0.012, PI (P=0.001, TNM stage (P<0.001, and degree of

Preoperative computed tomography for determining nodal status combined with histologic grading as a prognostic factor for patients with tongue carcinoma

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ogura, Ichiro; Kurabayashi, Tohru; Amagasa, Teruo; Iwaki, Hiroshi; Sasaki, Takehito

2001-01-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the predictive value of preoperative neck computed tomography (CT) in combination with histologic grading as a prognostic factor for patients with tongue carcinoma. Fifty-five patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the tongue were examined by CT prior to radical neck dissection. The locoregional failure and survival rates of these patients were analyzed in relation to their clinical characteristics, histologic grading (World Health Organization, WHO) based on tongue biopsy, and imaging diagnoses prior to surgery. Logistic multivariate regression analysis showed that both histologic grading and number of metastatic lymph nodes on CT were significant and independent prognostic factors in locoregional failure (p=0.009 and p=0.009, respectively). When the numebr of metastatic lymph nodes detected on preoperative neck CT were combined with the histologic grading for the evaluation, the five-year overall survival rates of A group (0 node with any Grade, or 1 node with Grade I-II) and B group (1 node with Grade III, or 2 or more nodes with any Grade) were 74.5% and 37.5%, respectively (p=0.001). The difference was more significant than histologic grading alone or the number of metastatic lymph nodes seen on CT alone. The combination of preoperative neck CT with histologic grading of the primary tumor is useful as a prognostic indicator for patients with tongue carcinoma. (author)

Prognostic significance of maximum primary tumor diameter in nasopharyngeal carcinoma