WorldWideScience

Sample records for discount rate

  1. On multiple discount rates

    OpenAIRE

    Chambers, Christopher P.; Echenique, Federico

    2016-01-01

    We propose a theory of intertemporal choice that is robust to specific assumptions on the discount rate. One class of models requires that one utility stream be chosen over another if and only if its discounted value is higher for all discount factors in a set. Another model focuses on an average discount factor. Yet another model is pessimistic, and evaluates a flow by the lowest available discounted value.

  2. Decomposing the social discount rate

    OpenAIRE

    Scarborough, Helen

    2010-01-01

    Recent modelling of the costs and benefits of climate change has renewed debate surrounding assumptions regarding the social discount rate in analysing the impacts of environmental change. Previous literature segments the social discount rate into being influenced by two key factors; the rate of pure time preference and the elasticity of marginal utility of future consumption. These components of the social discount rate reinforce the linkages between the choice of social discount rate and in...

  3. Aggregate Social Discount Rate Derived from Individual Discount Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Kenneth F. Reinschmidt

    2002-01-01

    In the economic evaluation of large public-sector projects, an aggregate social discount rate may be used in present worth comparison of alternatives. This paper uses the assumptions that individual discount rates are constant over time and approximately Normally distributed across the affected population, with mean \\mu and variance \\sigma 2 , to derive an aggregate discount function that is exponential in form but with time-dependent aggregate discount rate \\rho (t) = \\mu - \\sigma 2 t/2, whe...

  4. Estimating Discount Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laurence Booth

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Discount rates are essential to applied finance, especially in setting prices for regulated utilities and valuing the liabilities of insurance companies and defined benefit pension plans. This paper reviews the basic building blocks for estimating discount rates. It also examines market risk premiums, as well as what constitutes a benchmark fair or required rate of return, in the aftermath of the financial crisis and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s bond-buying program. Some of the results are disconcerting. In Canada, utilities and pension regulators responded to the crash in different ways. Utilities regulators haven’t passed on the full impact of low interest rates, so that consumers face higher prices than they should whereas pension regulators have done the opposite, and forced some contributors to pay more. In both cases this is opposite to the desired effect of monetary policy which is to stimulate aggregate demand. A comprehensive survey of global finance professionals carried out last year provides some clues as to where adjustments are needed. In the U.S., the average equity market required return was estimated at 8.0 per cent; Canada’s is 7.40 per cent, due to the lower market risk premium and the lower risk-free rate. This paper adds a wealth of historic and survey data to conclude that the ideal base long-term interest rate used in risk premium models should be 4.0 per cent, producing an overall expected market return of 9-10.0 per cent. The same data indicate that allowed returns to utilities are currently too high, while the use of current bond yields in solvency valuations of pension plans and life insurers is unhelpful unless there is a realistic expectation that the plans will soon be terminated.

  5. Intergenerational equity and the social discount rate

    OpenAIRE

    Scarborough, Helen

    2011-01-01

    Recent modelling of the costs and benefits of climate change has renewed debate regarding assumptions for the social discount rate in analysing the impacts of environmental change. Previous literature suggests two key factors influence estimates of the social discount rate: the rate of pure time preference and the elasticity of marginal utility of future consumption. These components of the social discount rate reinforce the linkages between the choice of social discount rate and intergenerat...

  6. 18 CFR 704.39 - Discount rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Discount rate. 704.39... STANDARDS AND PROCEDURES Standards for Plan Formulation and Evaluation § 704.39 Discount rate. (a) The interest rate to be used in plan formulation and evaluation for discounting future benefits and computing...

  7. Optimal Discount Rates for Government Projects

    OpenAIRE

    Park, Sangkyun

    2012-01-01

    Project selection based on the net present value can be optimal only if the discount rate is optimal. The optimal discount rate for a government project can be a risk-free rate, a comparable market rate (market interest rate corresponding to the risk of cash flows to the government), or an adjusted market rate, depending on circumstances. This paper clarifies the conditions for each case. Provided that the optimal discount rate is the comparable market rate, it varies across intervention meth...

  8. Life cycle costing with a discount rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Posner, E. C.

    1978-01-01

    This article studies life cycle costing for a capability needed for the indefinite future, and specifically investigates the dependence of optimal policies on the discount rate chosen. The two costs considered are reprocurement cost and maintenance and operations (M and O) cost. The procurement price is assumed known, and the M and O costs are assumed to be a known function, in fact, a non-decreasing function, of the time since last reprocurement. The problem is to choose the optimum reprocurement time so as to minimize the quotient of the total cost over a reprocurement period divided by the period. Or one could assume a discount rate and try to minimize the total discounted costs into the indefinite future. It is shown that the optimum policy in the presence of a small discount rate hardly depends on the discount rate at all, and leads to essentially the same policy as in the case in which discounting is not considered.

  9. Smoking, Discount Rates, and Returns to Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fersterer, Josef; Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf

    2003-01-01

    Individual time preference determines schooling enrolment. Moreover, smoking behavior in early ages has been shown to be highly related to time preference rates. Insofar as discount rates are uncorrelated to ability, predicting school enrolment by discount rates can get rid of the ability bias in an earnings regression. Accordingly, we use smoking…

  10. Uncertain discount rates in climate policy analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Newell, R.G.; Pizer, W.A.

    2004-01-01

    Consequences in the distant future - such as those from climate change--have little value today when discounted using conventional rates. This result contradicts our 'gut feeling' about such problems and often leads to ad hoc application of lower rates for valuations over longer horizons - a step facilitated by confusion and disagreement over the correct rate even over short horizons. We review the theory and intuition behind the choice of discount rates now and, importantly, the impact of likely variation in rates in the future. Correlated changes in future rates imply that the distant future should be discounted at much lower rates than suggested by the current rate, thereby raising the value of future consequences - regardless of opinions concerning the current rate. Using historic data to quantity the likely changes and correlation in changes in future rates, we find that future valuations rise by a factor of many thousands at horizons of 300 years or more, almost doubling the expected present value of climate mitigation benefits relative to constant 4% discounting. Ironically, uncertainty about future rates reduces the ratio of valuations based on alternate choices of the current rate

  11. Do Declining Discount Rates lead to Time Inconsistent Economic Advice?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Anders Chr.

    2006-01-01

    This paper addresses the risk of time inconsistency in economic appraisals related to the use of hyperbolic discounting (declining discount rates) instead of exponential discounting (constant discount rate). Many economists are uneasy about the prospects of potential time inconsistency. The paper...

  12. Discounting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, P.M.S.

    1987-01-01

    Discounting is a procedure used to facilitate comparison of investment options where either or both the investment and income are spread out in time. It is based on the observation that under most circumstances a sum of money in the hand is worth more to the holder than the same sum in real terms in the future, because the holder can use the money in the intervening time. As discounting is used widely in economic assessment it is valid to use it for assessing electricity generation by nuclear power or fuel cycle costs. The way in which discounting works is explained, including factors such as risk and non-monetary aspects. The rate of the discount is a matter of government policy. In the United Kingdom it is currently (1986) 5 percent per annum for projects such as hospitals and road building. There is no good reason for this to be different for energy projects. (U.K.)

  13. Skiba points for small discount rates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wagener, F.O.O.

    2006-01-01

    The present article uses perturbation techniques to approximate the value function of an economic minimization problem for small values of the discount rate. This can be used to obtain the approximate location of the Skiba states in the problem; these are states for which there are two distinct

  14. A 5-trial adjusting delay discounting task: Accurate discount rates in less than 60 seconds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koffarnus, Mikhail N.; Bickel, Warren K.

    2014-01-01

    Individuals who discount delayed rewards at a high rate are more likely to engage in substance abuse, overeating, or problem gambling. Findings such as these suggest the value of methods to obtain an accurate and fast measurement of discount rate that can be easily deployed in variety of settings. In the present study, we developed and evaluated the 5-trial adjusting delay task, a novel method of obtaining discount rate in less than one minute. We hypothesized that discount rates from the 5-trial adjusting delay task would be similar and correlated with discount rates from a lengthier task we have used previously, and that four known effects relating to delay discounting would be replicable with this novel task. To test these hypotheses, the 5-trial adjusting delay task was administered to 111 college students six times to obtain discount rates for six different commodities, along with a lengthier adjusting amount discounting task. We found that discount rates were similar and correlated between the 5-trial adjusting delay task and the adjusting amount task. Each of the four known effects relating to delay discounting was replicated with the 5-trial adjusting delay task to varying degrees. First, discount rates were inversely correlated with amount. Second, discount rates between past and future outcomes were correlated. Third, discount rates were greater for consumable rewards than with money, although we did not control for amount in this comparison. Fourth, discount rates were lower when zero amounts opposing the chosen time point were explicitly described. Results indicate that the 5-trial adjusting delay task is a viable, rapid method to assess discount rate. PMID:24708144

  15. A 5-trial adjusting delay discounting task: accurate discount rates in less than one minute.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koffarnus, Mikhail N; Bickel, Warren K

    2014-06-01

    Individuals who discount delayed rewards at a high rate are more likely to engage in substance abuse, overeating, or problem gambling. Such findings suggest the value of methods to obtain an accurate and fast measurement of discount rate that can be easily deployed in variety of settings. In the present study, we developed and evaluated the 5-trial adjusting delay task, a novel method of obtaining a discount rate in less than 1 min. We hypothesized that discount rates from the 5-trial adjusting delay task would be similar and would correlate with discount rates from a lengthier task we have used previously, and that 4 known effects relating to delay discounting would be replicable with this novel task. To test these hypotheses, the 5-trial adjusting delay task was administered to 111 college students 6 times to obtain discount rates for 6 different commodities, along with a lengthier adjusting amount discounting task. We found that discount rates were similar and correlated between the 5-trial adjusting delay task and the adjusting amount task. Each of the 4 known effects relating to delay discounting was replicated with the 5-trial adjusting delay task to varying degrees. First, discount rates were inversely correlated with amount. Second, discount rates between past and future outcomes were correlated. Third, discount rates were greater for consumable rewards than with money, although we did not control for amount in this comparison. Fourth, discount rates were lower when $0 amounts opposing the chosen time point were explicitly described. Results indicate that the 5-trial adjusting delay task is a viable, rapid method to assess discount rate. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

  16. Individual laboratory-measured discount rates predict field behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chabris, Christopher F; Laibson, David; Morris, Carrie L; Schuldt, Jonathon P; Taubinsky, Dmitry

    2008-12-01

    We estimate discount rates of 555 subjects using a laboratory task and find that these individual discount rates predict inter-individual variation in field behaviors (e.g., exercise, BMI, smoking). The correlation between the discount rate and each field behavior is small: none exceeds 0.28 and many are near 0. However, the discount rate has at least as much predictive power as any variable in our dataset (e.g., sex, age, education). The correlation between the discount rate and field behavior rises when field behaviors are aggregated: these correlations range from 0.09-0.38. We present a model that explains why specific intertemporal choice behaviors are only weakly correlated with discount rates, even though discount rates robustly predict aggregates of intertemporal decisions.

  17. Intergenerational transfers and the social discount rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Howarth, R.B.; Norgaard, R.B.

    1992-08-01

    This paper investigates the relationship between intergenerational asset transfers and the choice of the discount rate for use in cost-benefit analysis in a model of a competitive overlapping generations economy constrained by a socially managed exhaustible resource. Provided that there are no distortions in capital markets and that all agents hold perfect foresight, cost-benefit techniques will result in a Pareto efficient resource allocation if the discount rate is set equal to the market rate of interest. But since the path of the interest rate depends on the level of intergenerational transfers, cost-benefit techniques do not ensure a socially desirable distribution of welfare between generations; a social optimum will result only if intergenerational transfers are properly chosen and enforced. Decentralized private altruism may result in intergenerational transfers that both present and future individuals would agree are too small if members of the present generation attach positive weight to the general welfare of future generations, not simply their personal descendants. In a world where intergenerational transfers are non-optimal, second-best policy-making may imply a constrained optimum that is inefficient. Together, these findings suggest that cost-benefit analysis is at best a partial criterion to policy formulation that should be used only in conjunction with ethical principles that define the proper distribution of welfare between present and future generations

  18. The Individual Health Discount Rate in Patients with Ulcerative Colitis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waljee, Akbar K.; Morris, Arden M.; Waljee, Jennifer F.; Higgins, Peter D.R.

    2015-01-01

    Background In cost-effectiveness analysis, discount rates are used in calculating the value of future costs and benefits. However, standard discount rates may not accurately describe the decision-making of patients with Ulcerative Colitis (UC). These patients often choose the long-term risks of immunosuppressive therapy over the short-term risks of colectomy, demonstrating very high discount rates for future health. In this study, we aimed to measure the discount rate in UC patients and identify variables associated with the discount rate. Methods We surveyed patients with UC and patients who were post-colectomy for UC to measure their valuations of UC and colectomy health states. We used Standard Gamble(SG) and Time-Trade-Off(TTO) methods to assess current and future health state valuations, and calculated the discount rate. Results Participants included 150 subjects with UC and 150 subjects who were post-colectomy for UC. Discount rates varied widely (20.6%–100%) with an overall median rate of 55.0%, which was significantly higher than the standard rate of 5%. Older age and male gender and predicted high discount rates (aversion to immediate risk in favor of distant future risk). For each additional decade of age, patients’ expected discount rate increased by 0.77%. Female gender was the only predictor of very low discount rates. Female patients’ discount rates averaged 8.1% less than age-matched males. Conclusions The accepted discount rate of 5% grossly underestimates UC patients’ preference for long-term over short-term risk. This might explain UC patients’ frequent choice of the long-term risks of immunosuppressive medical therapy over the short-term risks of colectomy. PMID:21560195

  19. Can we use human judgments to determine the discount rate?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baron, J

    2000-12-01

    It has been suggested that the long-term discount rate for environmental goods should decrease at longer delays. One justification for this suggestion is that human judgments support it. This article presents an experiment showing that judgments concerning discount rates are internally inconsistent. These results point to potential problems with the use of judgments referenda for determining discount rates in cost-benefit analyses.

  20. Individual health discount rate in patients with ulcerative colitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waljee, Akbar K; Morris, Arden M; Waljee, Jennifer F; Higgins, Peter D R

    2011-06-01

    In cost-effectiveness analysis, discount rates are used in calculating the value of future costs and benefits. However, standard discount rates may not accurately describe the decision-making of patients with ulcerative colitis (UC). These patients often choose the long-term risks of immunosuppressive therapy over the short-term risks of colectomy, demonstrating very high discount rates for future health. In this study we aimed to measure the discount rate in UC patients and identify variables associated with the discount rate. We surveyed patients with UC and patients who were postcolectomy for UC to measure their valuations of UC and colectomy health states. We used Standard Gamble (SG) and Time-Trade-Off (TTO) methods to assess current and future health state valuations and calculated the discount rate. Participants included 150 subjects with UC and 150 subjects who were postcolectomy for UC. Adjusted discount rates varied widely (0%-100%), with an overall median rate of 55.0% (interquartile range [IQR] 20.6-100), which was significantly higher than the standard rate of 5%. Within the normal range of discount rates, patients' expected discount rate increased by 0.80% for each additional year of age, and female patients had discount rates that averaged ≈ 8% less than their age-matched counterparts and approached statistical significance. The accepted discount rate of 5% grossly underestimates UC patients' preference for long-term over short-term risk. This might explain UC patients' frequent choice of the long-term risks of immunosuppressive medical therapy over the short-term risks of colectomy. Copyright © 2010 Crohn's & Colitis Foundation of America, Inc.

  1. Estimation of social discount rate for Lithuania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vilma Kazlauskiene

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of the article: The paper seeks to analyse the problematics of estimation of the social discount rate (SDR. The SDR is the critical parameter of cost-benefit analysis, which allows calculating the present value of cost and the benefit of public sector investment projects. Incorrect choice of the SDR can lead to the realisation of ineffective public project or conversely, cost-effective project will be rejected. The relevance of this problem analysis is determined by discussions and different viewpoints of scientists on the choice of the most appropriate approach to determine the SDR and absence of methodically based the SDR on the national level of Lithuania. Methodology/methods: The research is performed by the scientific and methodical literature analysis, systematization, time series and regression analysis. Scientific aim: The aim of the article is to calculate the SDR based on the statistical data of Lithuania. Findings: The analysis of methods of SDR determination, as well as the researches performed by foreign researchers, allows stating that the social rate of time preference (SRTP approach is the most appropriate. The SDR, calculated by the SRTP approach, reflects the main purpose of public investment projects, i.e. to enhance social benefit for society, the best. The analyses of SDR determination practice of the foreign countries shows that the SDR level should not be universal for all states. Each country should calculate the SDR based on its own data and apply it for the assessment of public projects. Conclusions: The calculated SDR for Lithuania using the SRTP approach varies between 3.5% and 4.3%. Although it is lower than 5% that is offered by European Commission, this rate is based on the statistical data of Lithuania and should be used for the assessment of the national public projects. Applicatio

  2. Associations between Antisocial Personality Disorder and Sex on Discounting Rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrade, Leonardo F; Riven, Levi; Petry, Nancy M

    2014-12-01

    Numerous studies show that individuals with substance use and gambling problems discount delayed and probabilistic outcomes at different rates than controls. Few studies, however, investigated the association of discounting with antisocial personality disorders (ASPD), and none evaluated whether sex impacts these relationships. Because females with ASPD exhibit different patterns of antisocial behavior than their male counterparts, they may also differ in their decision-making tendencies. This study examined the effects of ASPD and sex on discounting in pathological gamblers. Results revealed effects of ASPD, and an interaction between ASPD and sex, on probability discounting rates. None of these variables, however, were related to delay discounting. Females with ASPD highly preferred probabilistic outcomes, suggesting that female gamblers with ASPD are particularly impulsive when it comes to probabilistic rewards. Greater understanding of sex differences in ASPD might help guide the selection of more effective sex-specific prevention and treatment programs.

  3. Review of assessment methods discount rate in investment analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yamaletdinova Guzel Hamidullovna

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available The article examines the current methods of calculating discount rate in investment analysis and business valuation, as well as analyzes the key problems using various techniques in terms of the Russian economy.

  4. Discount Rate and Timber Rotation: the Case of Eucalyptus Saligna

    OpenAIRE

    Camilo Restrepo; Mauricio Alviar

    2010-01-01

    Eucalyptus is one of the most important economical and environmental species in Colombia. The main goal of this article is to study the relationship between the discount rate and the year of Eucalyptus Saligna optimal harvest, through the Fisher and Hotelling’s method. The methodology consists of calculating the maximum Net Present Value and performing a sensitivity analysis between the year of harvest and the discount rate. The area of study is located in the eastern region of the state of A...

  5. Discounting the distant future—Data on Australian discount rates estimated by a stochastic interest rate model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chi Truong

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Data on certainty equivalent discount factors and discount rates for stochastic interest rates in Australia are provided in this paper. The data has been used for the analysis of investments into climate adaptation projects in ׳It׳s not now or never: Implications of investment timing and risk aversion on climate adaptation to extreme events׳ (Truong and Trück, 2016 [3] and can be used for other cost-benefit analysis studies in Australia. The data is of particular interest for the discounting of projects that create monetary costs and benefits in the distant future.

  6. Discounting the distant future-Data on Australian discount rates estimated by a stochastic interest rate model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Truong, Chi; Trück, Stefan

    2017-04-01

    Data on certainty equivalent discount factors and discount rates for stochastic interest rates in Australia are provided in this paper. The data has been used for the analysis of investments into climate adaptation projects in ׳It׳s not now or never: Implications of investment timing and risk aversion on climate adaptation to extreme events ׳ (Truong and Trück, 2016) [3] and can be used for other cost-benefit analysis studies in Australia. The data is of particular interest for the discounting of projects that create monetary costs and benefits in the distant future.

  7. An Adjusted Discount Rate Model for Fuel Cycle Cost Estimation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, S. K.; Kang, G. B.; Ko, W. I. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-10-15

    Owing to the diverse nuclear fuel cycle options available, including direct disposal, it is necessary to select the optimum nuclear fuel cycles in consideration of the political and social environments as well as the technical stability and economic efficiency of each country. Economic efficiency is therefore one of the significant evaluation standards. In particular, because nuclear fuel cycle cost may vary in each country, and the estimated cost usually prevails over the real cost, when evaluating the economic efficiency, any existing uncertainty needs to be removed when possible to produce reliable cost information. Many countries still do not have reprocessing facilities, and no globally commercialized HLW (High-level waste) repository is available. A nuclear fuel cycle cost estimation model is therefore inevitably subject to uncertainty. This paper analyzes the uncertainty arising out of a nuclear fuel cycle cost evaluation from the viewpoint of a cost estimation model. Compared to the same discount rate model, the nuclear fuel cycle cost of a different discount rate model is reduced because the generation quantity as denominator in Equation has been discounted. Namely, if the discount rate reduces in the back-end process of the nuclear fuel cycle, the nuclear fuel cycle cost is also reduced. Further, it was found that the cost of the same discount rate model is overestimated compared with the different discount rate model as a whole.

  8. An Adjusted Discount Rate Model for Fuel Cycle Cost Estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, S. K.; Kang, G. B.; Ko, W. I.

    2013-01-01

    Owing to the diverse nuclear fuel cycle options available, including direct disposal, it is necessary to select the optimum nuclear fuel cycles in consideration of the political and social environments as well as the technical stability and economic efficiency of each country. Economic efficiency is therefore one of the significant evaluation standards. In particular, because nuclear fuel cycle cost may vary in each country, and the estimated cost usually prevails over the real cost, when evaluating the economic efficiency, any existing uncertainty needs to be removed when possible to produce reliable cost information. Many countries still do not have reprocessing facilities, and no globally commercialized HLW (High-level waste) repository is available. A nuclear fuel cycle cost estimation model is therefore inevitably subject to uncertainty. This paper analyzes the uncertainty arising out of a nuclear fuel cycle cost evaluation from the viewpoint of a cost estimation model. Compared to the same discount rate model, the nuclear fuel cycle cost of a different discount rate model is reduced because the generation quantity as denominator in Equation has been discounted. Namely, if the discount rate reduces in the back-end process of the nuclear fuel cycle, the nuclear fuel cycle cost is also reduced. Further, it was found that the cost of the same discount rate model is overestimated compared with the different discount rate model as a whole

  9. Estimating implied rates of discount in healthcare decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, R R; McNabb, R; Thompson, A G H; Sheldon, T A; Grimley Evans, J

    2003-01-01

    To consider whether implied rates of discounting from the perspectives of individual and society differ, and whether implied rates of discounting in health differ from those implied in choices involving finance or "goods". The study comprised first a review of economics, health economics and social science literature and then an empirical estimate of implied rates of discounting in four fields: personal financial, personal health, public financial and public health, in representative samples of the public and of healthcare professionals. Samples were drawn in the former county and health authority district of South Glamorgan, Wales. The public sample was a representative random sample of men and women, aged over 18 years and drawn from electoral registers. The health professional sample was drawn at random with the cooperation of professional leads to include doctors, nurses, professions allied to medicine, public health, planners and administrators. The literature review revealed few empirical studies in representative samples of the population, few direct comparisons of public with private decision-making and few direct comparisons of health with financial discounting. Implied rates of discounting varied widely and studies suggested that discount rates are higher the smaller the value of the outcome and the shorter the period considered. The relationship between implied discount rates and personal attributes was mixed, possibly reflecting the limited nature of the samples. Although there were few direct comparisons, some studies found that individuals apply different rates of discount to social compared with private comparisons and health compared with financial. The present study also found a wide range of implied discount rates, with little systematic effect of age, gender, educational level or long-term illness. There was evidence, in both samples, that people chose a lower rate of discount in comparisons made on behalf of society than in comparisons made for

  10. Selection of a discount rate for use in NRC regulatory analyses and application of discount rates to future averted health effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paananen, O.H.; Hendrickson, P.L.

    1993-01-01

    The principal objective of this report is to provide background information and recommendations on the use of discount rates in the regulatory analysis process. The report focuses on two issues selecting the appropriate discount rate or rates to use when conducting a regulatory analysis, and applying the selected discount rate to future health-related benefits estimated to result from alternative regulatory actions

  11. Incentivizing Decentralized Sanitation: The Role of Discount Rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Alison; Blackhurst, Michael; Garland, Jay L; Lawler, Desmond F

    2016-06-21

    In adoption decisions for decentralized sanitation technologies, two decision makers are involved: the public utility and the individual homeowner. Standard life cycle cost is calculated from the perspective of the utility, which uses a market-based discount rate in these calculations. However, both decision-makers must be considered, including their differing perceptions of the time trade-offs inherent in a stream of costs and benefits. This study uses the discount rate as a proxy for these perceptions and decision-maker preferences. The results in two case studies emphasize the dependence on location of such analyses. Falmouth, Massachusetts, appears to be a good candidate for incentivizing decentralized sanitation while the Allegheny County Sanitary Authority service area in Pennsylvania appears to have no need for similar incentives. This method can be applied to any two-party decision in which the parties are expected to have different discount rates.

  12. Temporal discounting and heart rate reactivity to stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diller, James W; Patros, Connor H G; Prentice, Paula R

    2011-07-01

    Temporal discounting is the reduction of the value of a reinforcer as a function of increasing delay to its presentation. Impulsive individuals discount delayed consequences more rapidly than self-controlled individuals, and impulsivity has been related to substance abuse, gambling, and other problem behaviors. A growing body of literature has identified biological correlates of impulsivity, though little research to date has examined relations between delay discounting and markers of poor health (e.g., cardiovascular reactivity to stress). We evaluated the relation between one aspect of impulsivity, measured using a computerized temporal discounting task, and heart rate reactivity, measured as a change in heart rate from rest during a serial subtraction task. A linear regression showed that individuals who were more reactive to stress responded more impulsively (i.e., discounted delayed reinforcers more rapidly). When results were stratified by gender, the effect was observed for females, but not for males. This finding supports previous research on gender differences in cardiovascular reactivity and suggests that this type of reactivity may be an important correlate of impulsive behavior. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Description, prescription and the choice of discount rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baum, Seth D.

    2009-01-01

    The choice of discount rates is a key issue in the analysis of long-term societal issues, in particular environmental issues such as climate change. Approaches to choosing discount rates are generally placed into two categories: the descriptive approach and the prescriptive approach. The descriptive approach is often justified on grounds that it uses a description of how society discounts instead of having analysts impose their own discounting views on society. This paper analyzes the common forms of the descriptive and prescriptive approaches and finds that, in contrast with customary thinking, both forms are equally descriptive and prescriptive. The prescriptions concern who has standing (i.e. who is included) in society, how the views of these individuals are measured, and how the measurements are aggregated. Such prescriptions are necessary to choose from among the many possible descriptions of how society discounts. The descriptions are the measurements made given a choice of measurement technique. Thus, the labels 'descriptive approach' and 'prescriptive approach' are deeply misleading, as analysts cannot avoid imposing their own views on society. (author)

  14. Discount rates for social cost benefit analysis of nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Owen, P.A.

    1978-01-01

    The question that this paper addresses is how decisions affecting many citizens should be made when there are uncertain outcomes in the distant future. By distant is meant beyond the lifetimes of individuals alive now. Thus the proposed methodology would apply to many decisions in nuclear energy from the investment in new energy sources such as fusion, to the long-term storage of wastes. Decisions of this type have usually been analyzed using cost benefit analysis. In this case, future outcomes are discounted at the so-called social discount rate. By comparison, the proposed methodology uses information on individual citizen's preferences and willingness to pay to make a future generation better off. The connection between the proposed approach and more traditional discounting techniques is examined using the government decision about storing helium for the future as an example

  15. Combining Environmental and Spatial Discount Rates for Valuation of Assets According to International Financial Reporting Standards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaunzeme Justine Sophia

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Application of discount rate in finance and accounting is founded on the concept of time value of money. Discounted cash flow model is widely used for asset valuation under the International Financial Reporting Standards (in abbreviation, IFRS. The discount rate applied in valuation models normally is the best rate of return that investors would earn alternative investments. With emergence of ecological economics as a separate branch of economics, the concept of ecological (or in other words, environmental discount rate has been elaborated. Muller (2013 in his paper ‘The Discounting Confusion: an Ecological Economics Perspective’, argues that traditional discounting can undermine long-term sustainability of the economy. In his work, Frank G. Muller considered adjusting the traditional discount rate in order to arrive at an environmental discount rate, which would help to ensure the sustainability of the economy. Hannon (2001 and Perrings (2001 in their paper ‘An Introduction to Spatial Discounting’ consider another variation of the discount rate - spatial discount rate. Spatial discount rate represents the rate at which the diffusion of environmental effects of economic activities is discounted over space. By February 2016, neither the application of environmental nor spatial discount rates under IFRS has been considered. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the implications that environmental and spatial discounting would have for the application of discounted cash flow model according to IFRS. The research methods applied are methods of economic analysis and synthesis.

  16. Implicit individual discount rate in China: A contingent valuation study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hua; He, Jie

    2018-03-15

    Two contingent valuation (CV) surveys were conducted in Kunming, China, to estimate households' willingness to pay (WTP) for the Panlong River rehabilitation project. The two surveys were conducted using the same procedures and questionnaires except for the payment schedule arrangements, which permitted a calculation of respondents' implicit discount rate. The surveys provided two estimates of WTP, one with a mean of 23 Yuan in monthly payment over 5 years and the other with a mean of 311 Yuan in a lump-sum payment that will cover all the expenses for a period of 5 years. The results produce an estimate of monthly discount rate of 7.6%-12.6% or annual discount rate of 141-315%. The estimates are higher than that reported from those studies conducted in the U.S., but are compatible with that of some other studies. This study also shows that both mean individual WTP and implicit individual discount rates are closely related to household demographic and economic characteristics and environment-related perceptions, as reported in the studies conducted in other countries. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Pension Fund Asset Allocation and Liability Discount Rates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Andonov, Aleksandar; Bauer, Rob; Cremers, Martijn

    2017-01-01

    The unique regulation of U.S. public pension funds links their liability discount rate to the expected return on assets, which gives them incentives to invest more in risky assets in order to report a better funding status. Comparing public and private pension funds in the United States, Canada, and

  18. Choosing the Discount Rate for Defense Decisionmaking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1976-07-01

    a weighted average of the after-personal-income-tax rate of return to savers and the pre- corporate - income - tax cost of capital. Stockfisch calcu].ates...occurs between the corporate and noncorporate sector. Many economists assume 100 percent shifting of the corporate income tax , so if the corporate ...capital is a weighted average of the after-personal-income-tax rate of return to savers and the pre- corporate - income - tax cost of capital. Stockfisch

  19. TEMPORAL INSENSITIVITY OF PVWTP AND IMPLIED DISCOUNT RATES IN CVM

    OpenAIRE

    Kim, Sooil; Haab, Timothy C.

    2003-01-01

    The sensitivity of WTP is tested in terms of the present value and the implied discount rates are derived by varying the length of benefit and the temporal payment schedules. Results show that holding the length of the project constant, the present value of willingness to pay does not vary significantly across payment schemes (one time payment, versus life of the project, versus perpetuity). Heteroskedasticity of error term over payment schemes fails to be accepted. Holding the payment scheme...

  20. 78 FR 67393 - Change in Discount Rate for Water Resources Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-11-12

    ... Discount Rate for Water Resources Planning AGENCY: Bureau of Reclamation, Interior. ACTION: Notice of change. SUMMARY: The Water Resources Planning Act of 1965 and the Water Resources Development Act of 1974 require an annual determination of a discount rate for Federal water resources planning. The discount rate...

  1. 31 CFR 356.21 - How are awards at the high yield or discount rate calculated?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... discount rate calculated? 356.21 Section 356.21 Money and Finance: Treasury Regulations Relating to Money... high yield or discount rate calculated? (a) Awards to submitters. We generally prorate bids at the highest accepted yield or discount rate under § 356.20(a)(2) of this part. For example, if 80.15% is the...

  2. Cash Flow and Discount Rate Risk in Up and Down Markets: What is actually priced?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Botshekan, M.; Kraeussl, R.G.W.; Lucas, A.

    2012-01-01

    We test whether asymmetric preferences for losses versus gains affect the prices of cash flow versus discount rate risk. We construct a return decomposition distinguishing cash flow and discount rate betas in up and down markets. Using U.S. data, we find that downside cash flow and discount rate

  3. Manipulating the discount rate when valuing international investment projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. A. Medved

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the practice of evaluation of international investment projects using the cash flow discounting rate. The problem of the discount rate manipulating is connected with the category “country risk”, which often determines the impact on the rate and, accordingly, the investment decisions. Critically examines existing approaches to the definition of “country risk”. Categories that make up a complete picture of “country risk” are distinguished. The general defect of existing country risk concepts is revealed – the fact that the measurements are based on rather subjective assessments and do not have sufficient empirical evidence, the fact that almost all of them have a clear liberal democratic bias: as a rule, drawing attention to the relationship between the political system and stability, the liberal democratic structure of society is recognized as the most stable, without any acceptable scientific evidence, followed by autocracy, military dictatorships and new independent states. The author affirms the lack of a clear and unambiguous definition of this category, the controversial approach to ranking of countries. The author analyzes and proves the bias of rating assigned by foreign companies. As a conclusion the need to create a national research concept of the “country risk” category is аffirms with the subsequent promotion of national rating agencies to the world market. The author's conception of the category “country risk” is proposed, an author's definition is given to this notion, it is recommended to establish the primacy of national ratings over foreign ones both in domestic and international relations in order to have independent influence on international capital flows. It is also proposed the evaluation of projects based on the dynamic discounting rates, especially for long-term strategic projects.

  4. Discount rate in the spent fuel storage and disposal fee

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Forster, J.D.; Cohen, S.

    1980-04-01

    After introducing the financial analyses, discount rates, and interest rates involved, the study discusses existing government guidelines for establishing charges for any service provided by the government to be paid by users of those services. Three current government user charges are analyzed including specifically their interest rate policies and how these charges provide precedent for the spent fuel acceptance and disposal fee: uranium enrichment services, the sale of electric power, and the delivery of experiments to orbit by the NASA Space Shuttle. The current DOE policy regarding this storage and disposal fee is stated and discussed. Features of this policy include: the full government cost is borne by users of the services provided; the fee is established and due in full at the time of spent fuel delivery; and the fee is adjusted when spent fuel is transferred from the AFR to the repository. Four evaluation criteria for use in analyzing the applications of discount rates in the spent fuel acceptance fee calculation are discussed. Three outstanding issues are discussed

  5. Individual discount rates and smoking: evidence from a field experiment in Denmark.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, Glenn W; Lau, Morten I; Rutström, E Elisabet

    2010-09-01

    We elicit measures of individual discount rates from a representative sample of the Danish population and test two substantive hypotheses. The first hypothesis is that smokers have higher individual discount rates than non-smokers. The second hypothesis is that smokers are more likely to have time inconsistent preferences than non-smokers, where time inconsistency is indicated by a hyperbolic discounting function. We control for the concavity of the utility function in our estimates of individual discount rates and find that male smokers have significantly higher discount rates than male non-smokers. However, smoking has no significant association with discount rates among women. This result is robust across exponential and hyperbolic discounting functions. We consider the sensitivity of our conclusions to a statistical specification that allows each observation to potentially be generated by more than one latent data-generating process. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Subjective discount rates in the general population and their predictive power for energy saving behavior

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bruderer Enzler, Heidi; Diekmann, Andreas; Meyer, Reto

    2014-01-01

    Why do people sometimes refrain from saving energy even if it would pay off in monetary terms? Subjective discount rates present one possible explanation for this lack of foresight, but little is known about their level and reliability in the general population. With regard to behavior, persons with lower discount rates are expected to accept additional costs upfront more readily than those with higher discount rates. Based on a representative nation-wide study, the Swiss Environmental Survey 2007, and a follow-up survey, our analyses reveal that on average subjective discount rates are well above market interest rates and moderately stable over a time interval of four years. Income and education are negatively correlated with discount rates. Contrary to expectations, we did not find convincing support for an impact of discount rates on energy saving behavior. - Highlights: • Results of a large panel study in Switzerland. • Mean subjective discount rates in population are well above market interest rates. • Subjective discount rates are moderately stable over four years. • Theory suggests impact of subjective discount rates on energy saving behavior. • However, subjective discount rates do not contribute to explanation of energy saving behavior

  7. Stress hormones predict hyperbolic time-discount rates six months later in adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takahashi, Taiki; Shinada, Mizuho; Inukai, Keigo; Tanida, Shigehito; Takahashi, Chisato; Mifune, Nobuhiro; Takagishi, Haruto; Horita, Yutaka; Hashimoto, Hirofumi; Yokota, Kunihiro; Kameda, Tatsuya; Yamagishi, Toshio

    2010-01-01

    Stress hormones have been associated with temporal discounting. Although time-discount rate is shown to be stable over a long term, no study to date examines whether individual differences in stress hormones could predict individuals' time-discount rates in the relatively distant future (e.g., six month later), which is of interest in neuroeconomics of stress-addiction association. We assessed 87 participants' salivary stress hormone (cortisol, cortisone, and alpha-amylase) levels and hyperbolic discounting of delayed rewards consisting of three magnitudes, at the time-interval of six months. For salivary steroid assays, we employed a liquid chromatography/ mass spectroscopy (LC/MS) method. The correlations between the stress hormone levels and time-discount rates were examined. We observed that salivary alpha-amylase (sAA) levels were negatively associated with time-discount rates in never-smokers. Notably, salivary levels of stress steroids (i.e., cortisol and cortisone) negatively and positively related to time-discount rates in men and women, respectively, in never-smokers. Ever-smokers' discount rates were not predicted from these stress hormone levels. Individual differences in stress hormone levels predict impulsivity in temporal discounting in the future. There are sex differences in the effect of stress steroids on temporal discounting; while there was no sex defference in the relationship between sAA and temporal discounting.

  8. Commercial Discount Rate Estimation for Efficiency Standards Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fujita, K. Sydny [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2016-04-13

    Underlying each of the Department of Energy's (DOE's) federal appliance and equipment standards are a set of complex analyses of the projected costs and benefits of regulation. Any new or amended standard must be designed to achieve significant additional energy conservation, provided that it is technologically feasible and economically justified (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(A)). A proposed standard is considered economically justified when its benefits exceed its burdens, as represented by the projected net present value of costs and benefits. DOE performs multiple analyses to evaluate the balance of costs and benefits of commercial appliance and equipment e efficiency standards, at the national and individual building or business level, each framed to capture different nuances of the complex impact of standards on the commercial end user population. The Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) analysis models the combined impact of appliance first cost and operating cost changes on a representative commercial building sample in order to identify the fraction of customers achieving LCC savings or incurring net cost at the considered efficiency levels.1 Thus, the choice of commercial discount rate value(s) used to calculate the present value of energy cost savings within the Life-Cycle Cost model implicitly plays a key role in estimating the economic impact of potential standard levels.2 This report is intended to provide a more in-depth discussion of the commercial discount rate estimation process than can be readily included in standard rulemaking Technical Support Documents (TSDs).

  9. Discount rates, equity weights and the social cost of carbon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hope, Chris

    2008-01-01

    Equity weighting has been proposed as a way of allowing welfare equivalents to be included in the social cost of carbon since a dollar to a poor person is worth more than a dollar to a rich one. Here we use the PAGE2002 integrated assessment model to show that the social cost of carbon is higher without equity weights (an elasticity of marginal utility with respect to income of 0) than with them. This might seem counter-intuitive, but it comes about because of the logical link between equity weights and discount rates; as the elasticity goes from 0 to - 0.5 to - 1.0, the social rate of time preference rises, and the drop in present values that results far outweighs the small increase in impacts that equity weights bring. (author)

  10. The WACC Fallacy: The Real Effects of Using a Unique Discount Rate

    OpenAIRE

    Krüger, Philipp; Landier, Augustin; Thesmar, David

    2011-01-01

    We document investment distortions induced by the use of a single discount rate within firms. According to textbook capital budgeting, firms should value any project using a discount rate determined by the risk characteristics of the project. If they use a unique company-wide discount rate, they overinvest (resp. underinvest) in divisions with a market beta higher (resp. lower) than the firm's core industry beta. We directly test this consequence of the WACC fallacy and establish a robust and...

  11. Heroin addicts have higher discount rates for delayed rewards than non-drug-using controls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirby, K N; Petry, N M; Bickel, W K

    1999-03-01

    Fifty-six heroin addicts and 60 age-matched controls were offered choices between monetary rewards ($11-$80) available immediately and larger rewards ($25-$85) available after delays ranging from 1 week to 6 months. Participants had a 1-in-6 chance of winning a reward that they chose on one randomly selected trial. Delay-discounting rates were estimated from the pattern of participants' choices. The discounting model of impulsiveness (Ainslie, 1975) implies that delay-discounting rates are positively correlated with impulsiveness. On average, heroin addicts' discount rates were twice those of controls (p = .004), and discount rates were positively correlated with impulsivity as measured by self-report questionnaires (p discounting rate as a measure of impulsiveness, a characteristic associated with substance abuse.

  12. Philosophical origins of the social rate of discount in cost-benefit analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, J C

    1990-01-01

    The social rate of discount--that is, the way decision makers today evaluate future consequences of collective activity--raises difficult issues of intergenerational justice. When benefits are discounted at the present rate the United States government requires, serious efforts to promote public health over the long term will fail cost-benefit tests. No consensus exists among theorists to establish fair rates; philosophers support discounting with economic arguments that economists reject, while economists no less paradoxically support the concept using philosophical arguments that philosophers disavow. A new emphasis on the role of consumers' and citizens' time preferences, however, will keep open rather than close debates on the social discount rate.

  13. Investigation of the existing methodology of value estimation and methods of discount rate estimation

    OpenAIRE

    Plikus, Iryna

    2017-01-01

    The subject of research is the current practice of determining the fair value of assets and liabilities at the present (discounted) cost. One of the most problematic places is the determination of the discount rate, which belongs to the jurisdiction of a professional accountant judgment.The methods of formalization, hypothetical assumption, system approach and scientific abstraction in substantiating the formation of accounting policy with respect to the choice of the discount rate are used i...

  14. The consumption discount rate for the distant future (if we do not die out)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vermeylen, K.

    2013-01-01

    Gollier and Weitzman (2010) show that if future consumption discount rates are uncertain and persistent, the consumption discount rate should decline to its lowest possible value for events in the most distant future. In this paper, I argue that the lowest possible growth rate of consumption per

  15. 78 FR 16706 - Change in Discount Rate for Water Resources Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-18

    ... Planning AGENCY: Bureau of Reclamation, Interior. ACTION: Notice of change. SUMMARY: The Water Resources Planning Act of 1965 and the Water Resources Development Act of 1974 require an annual determination of a discount rate for Federal water resources planning. The discount rate for Federal water resources planning...

  16. 75 FR 8106 - Change in Discount Rate for Water Resources Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-02-23

    ... Planning AGENCY: Bureau of Reclamation, Interior. ACTION: Notice of change. SUMMARY: The Water Resources Planning Act of 1965 and the Water Resources Development Act of 1974 require an annual determination of a discount rate for Federal water resources planning. The discount rate for Federal water resources planning...

  17. 75 FR 82066 - Change in Discount Rate for Water Resources Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-29

    ... Planning AGENCY: Bureau of Reclamation, Interior. ACTION: Notice of change. SUMMARY: The Water Resources Planning Act of 1965 and the Water Resources Development Act of 1974 require an annual determination of a discount rate for Federal water resources planning. The discount rate for Federal water resources planning...

  18. 76 FR 73674 - Change in Discount Rate for Water Resources Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-11-29

    ... Planning AGENCY: Bureau of Reclamation, Interior. ACTION: Notice of change. SUMMARY: The Water Resources Planning Act of 1965 and the Water Resources Development Act of 1974 require an annual determination of a discount rate for Federal water resources planning. The discount rate for Federal water resources planning...

  19. 77 FR 1743 - Discount Rates for Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Federal Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-11

    ... OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET Discount Rates for Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Federal Programs... Appendix C are to be used for cost-effectiveness analysis, including lease-purchase analysis, as specified... (Revised December 2011) Discount Rates for Cost-Effectiveness, Lease Purchase, and Related Analyses...

  20. 76 FR 7881 - Discount Rates for Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Federal Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-02-11

    ... OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET Discount Rates for Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Federal Programs... Appendix C are to be used for cost-effectiveness analysis, including lease-purchase analysis, as specified... (Revised December 2010) DISCOUNT RATES FOR COST-EFFECTIVENESS, LEASE PURCHASE, AND RELATED ANALYSES...

  1. 78 FR 6140 - Discount Rates for Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Federal Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-29

    ... OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET Discount Rates for Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Federal Programs... in Appendix C are to be used for cost-effectiveness analysis, including lease-purchase analysis, as...) Discount Rates for Cost-Effectiveness, Lease Purchase, and Related Analyses Effective Dates. This appendix...

  2. Long-term impacts of mega-projects: the discount rate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koopmans, C.; Rietveld, P.; Priemus, H.; van Wee, B.

    2013-01-01

    In social cost-benefit analysis (SCBA), discount rates are used to convert costs and benefits that occur at different points in time, to present values that can be added and subtracted. Especially if important costs and benefits occur in the long term (more than say 30 years), the discount rate may

  3. Temporal discounting rates and their relation to exercise behavior in older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tate, Linda M; Tsai, Pao-Feng; Landes, Reid D; Rettiganti, Mallikarjuna; Lefler, Leanne L

    2015-12-01

    As our nation's population ages, the rates of chronic illness and disability are expected to increase significantly. Despite the knowledge that exercise may prevent chronic disease and promote health among older adults, many still are inactive. Factors related to exercise behaviors have been explored in recent years. However, temporal discounting is a motivational concept that has not been explored in regard to exercise in older adults. Temporal discounting is a decision making process by which an individual chooses a smaller more immediate reward over a larger delayed reward. The aim of this study was to determine if temporal discounting rates vary between exercising and non-exercising older adults. This study used cross-sectional survey of 137 older adults living in the community. Older adults were recruited from 11 rural Arkansas churches. The Kirby delay-discounting Monetary Choice Questionnaire was used to collect discounting rates and then bivariate analysis was performed to compare temporal discounting rate between the exercisers and non-exercisers. Finally, multivariate analysis was used to compare discounting rate controlling for other covariates. The results indicated that exercising older adults display lower temporal discounting rates than non-exercising older adults. After controlling for education, exercisers still have lower temporal discounting rates than non-exercisers (phealth conditions relate to lack of exercise especially in older adults. This research suggests that if we can find appropriate incentives for discounting individuals, some type of immediate reward, then potentially we can design programs to engage and retain older adults in exercise. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Harnessing the uncertainty monster: Putting quantitative constraints on the intergenerational social discount rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewandowsky, Stephan; Freeman, Mark C.; Mann, Michael E.

    2017-09-01

    There is broad consensus among economists that unmitigated climate change will ultimately have adverse global economic consequences, that the costs of inaction will likely outweigh the cost of taking action, and that social planners should therefore put a price on carbon. However, there is considerable debate and uncertainty about the appropriate value of the social discount rate, that is the extent to which future damages should be discounted relative to mitigation costs incurred now. We briefly review the ethical issues surrounding the social discount rate and then report a simulation experiment that constrains the value of the discount rate by considering 4 sources of uncertainty and ambiguity: Scientific uncertainty about the extent of future warming, social uncertainty about future population and future economic development, political uncertainty about future mitigation trajectories, and ethical ambiguity about how much the welfare of future generations should be valued today. We compute a certainty-equivalent declining discount rate that accommodates all those sources of uncertainty and ambiguity. The forward (instantaneous) discount rate converges to a value near 0% by century's end and the spot (horizon) discount rate drops below 2% by 2100 and drops below previous estimates by 2070.

  5. Benchmarking Discount Rate in Natural Resource Damage Assessment with Risk Aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Desheng; Chen, Shuzhen

    2017-08-01

    Benchmarking a credible discount rate is of crucial importance in natural resource damage assessment (NRDA) and restoration evaluation. This article integrates a holistic framework of NRDA with prevailing low discount rate theory, and proposes a discount rate benchmarking decision support system based on service-specific risk aversion. The proposed approach has the flexibility of choosing appropriate discount rates for gauging long-term services, as opposed to decisions based simply on duration. It improves injury identification in NRDA since potential damages and side-effects to ecosystem services are revealed within the service-specific framework. A real embankment case study demonstrates valid implementation of the method. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  6. The discount rate in the economic evaluation of prevention: a thought experiment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L.G.A. Bonneux (Luc); E. Birnie (Erwin)

    2001-01-01

    textabstractOBJECTIVES: In the standard economic model of evaluation, constant discount rates devalue the long term health benefits of prevention strongly. This study shows that it is unlikely that this reflects societal preference. DESIGN: A thought experiment in a

  7. Optimizing Discount Rates: Expressing Preferences for Sustainable Outcomes in Present Value Calculations

    OpenAIRE

    Axelrod, David

    2017-01-01

    This paper describes how the discount rate used in present value calculations expresses the preference for sustainability in decision making, and its implication for sustainable economic growth. In essence, the lower the discount rate, the greater the regard for the future, and the more likely we choose behaviors that lead to long-term sustainability. The theoretical framework combines behavioral economics and holonomics, which involve limitations of regard for the future due to constraints o...

  8. Assessing Discount Rate for a Project Financed Entirely with Equity Capital

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicoleta Vintila

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Estimating discount rate for an investment project is one of the most challenging tasks incapital budgeting. In this paper we discuss different kind of models for cost of equity capital proposed infinance literature (static CAPM, conditional CAPM, APT, build-up model, focusing especially on advantagesand disadvantages of using each of them. In the final section, we estimate the discount rate fora certain project financed entirely with equity capital, using a version of build-up model.

  9. Discount rates in risk versus money and money versus money tradeoffs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alberini, Anna; Chiabai, Aline

    2007-04-01

    We use data from a survey of residents of five Italian cities conducted in late spring 2004 to estimate the discount rates implicit in (1) money versus future risk reductions and (2) money versus money tradeoffs. We find that the mean personal discount rate is 0.3-1.7% in (1) and 8.7% in (2). The latter is lower than the discount rates estimated in comparable situations in many recent studies, greater than market interest rates in Italy at the time, and exhibits modest variation with age and gender. The discount rate implicit in money versus risk tradeoffs is within the range of estimates from studies in the United States and Europe, and does not depend on observable individual characteristics. We use split samples to investigate whether a completely abstract risk reduction - one where the risk reduction delivery has been stripped of all specifics, so that respondents should focus on the risks without being distracted by details - results in WTP and discount figures comparable to those from an identified delivery mechanism (a medical test). We find that while WTP for an immediate risk reduction is 42-73% higher with the abstract risk reduction, the discount rate in the money versus risk tradeoffs and the variance of the error term in the WTP equation are the same across the two variants of the questionnaire.

  10. Optimal harvesting of fish stocks under a time-varying discount rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duncan, Stephen; Hepburn, Cameron; Papachristodoulou, Antonis

    2011-01-21

    Optimal control theory has been extensively used to determine the optimal harvesting policy for renewable resources such as fish stocks. In such optimisations, it is common to maximise the discounted utility of harvesting over time, employing a constant time discount rate. However, evidence from human and animal behaviour suggests that we have evolved to employ discount rates which fall over time, often referred to as "hyperbolic discounting". This increases the weight on benefits in the distant future, which may appear to provide greater protection of resources for future generations, but also creates challenges of time-inconsistent plans. This paper examines harvesting plans when the discount rate declines over time. With a declining discount rate, the planner reduces stock levels in the early stages (when the discount rate is high) and intends to compensate by allowing the stock level to recover later (when the discount rate will be lower). Such a plan may be feasible and optimal, provided that the planner remains committed throughout. However, in practice there is a danger that such plans will be re-optimized and adjusted in the future. It is shown that repeatedly restarting the optimization can drive the stock level down to the point where the optimal policy is to harvest the stock to extinction. In short, a key contribution of this paper is to identify the surprising severity of the consequences flowing from incorporating a rather trivial, and widely prevalent, "non-rational" aspect of human behaviour into renewable resource management models. These ideas are related to the collapse of the Peruvian anchovy fishery in the 1970's. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Reviewing and piloting methods for decreasing discount rates; someone, somewhere in time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parouty, Mehraj B Y; Krooshof, Daan G M; Westra, Tjalke A; Pechlivanoglou, Petros; Postma, Maarten J

    2013-08-01

    There has been substantial debate on the need for decreasing discounting for monetary and health gains in economic evaluations. Next to the discussion on differential discounting, a way to identify the need for such discounting strategies is through eliciting the time preferences for monetary and health outcomes. In this article, the authors investigate the perceived time preference for money and health gains through a pilot survey on Dutch university students using methods on functional forms previously suggested. Formal objectives of the study were to review such existing methods and to pilot them on a convenience sample using a questionnaire designed for this specific purpose. Indeed, a negative relation between the time of delay and the variance of the discounting rate for all models was observed. This study was intended as a pilot for a large-scale population-based investigation using the findings from this pilot on wording of the questionnaire, interpretation, scope and analytic framework.

  12. THE DISCOUNT RATE POLICY IN ROMANIA IN THE 20TH CENTURY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pociovalisteanu Diana

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Throughout the 20th century, economists have generally acknowledged the importance of the central bank discount rate as the reference interest rate in a country: by increasing the interest rate during economic booms that forego the busts, the Central Bank

  13. 77 FR 68886 - Rate for Use in Federal Debt Collection and Discount and Rebate Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-11-16

    ... DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY Fiscal Service Rate for Use in Federal Debt Collection and Discount and... responsible for computing and publishing the percentage rate to be used in assessing interest charges for outstanding debts owed to the Government. Treasury's Cash Management Requirements (TFM Volume I, Part 6...

  14. Stochastic Discount Factor Approach to International Risk-Sharing: Evidence from Fixed Exchange Rate Episodes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hadzi-Vaskov, M.; Kool, C.J.M.

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents evidence of the stochastic discount factor approach to international risk-sharing applied to fixed exchange rate regimes. We calculate risk-sharing indices for two episodes of fixed or very rigid exchange rates: the Eurozone before and after the introduction of the Euro, and

  15. The Effects of Inflation and Interest Rates on Delay Discounting in Human Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawashima, Kentaro

    2006-01-01

    Interest and inflation rates may be major determinants of delay discounting, but these variables have not been controlled in past experiments because they depend on macroeconomic conditions. This study uses a computer game-like task to investigate the effects of inflation rates on people's subjective valuation of delayed rewards. During the task,…

  16. Discounting Behavior

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Steffen; Harrison, Glenn W.; Lau, Morten

    2014-01-01

    We re-evaluate the theory, experimental design and econometrics behind claims that individuals exhibit non-constant discounting behavior. Theory points to the importance of controlling for the non-linearity of the utility function of individuals, since the discount rate is defined over time-dated...

  17. Economic rate of discount and estimating cost benefit of viral immunisation programmes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, R R

    1999-01-01

    Many individual and societal decisions over purchase (or investment) involve consideration of timing, in that either the price may be paid now and the benefit enjoyed some time in the future or the converse the benefit enjoyed now and the price paid later. Since most individuals generally prefer the present to the future, economic theory has conventionally discounted future costs or benefits to estimate 'net present values'. The rationale for this is principally based on future uncertainty. In recent years, economists have turned their attention to valuing health as an economic 'good'. Observations of individual behaviour would imply that individuals discount future health, as other potential benefits, mostly because there is some uncertainty about their futures. Although economic theory is strongly predicated on the 'sovereignty of the individual', it does not necessarily follow that society discounts the future as do individuals, since for society the future is not so uncertain. Society's endorsement of many public health and preventive medicine objectives, which seek health gains in the future (rather than the present), imply that society's rate of discount may be appreciably lower than that of individuals. In immunisation, arguably one of the most effective of preventive measures, there is the additional benefit to others attributable to herd immunity. This paper argues that the future health gains for society arising from immunisation should not be underestimated by application of inappropriate discounting.

  18. Focus on the future: Episodic future thinking reduces discount rate and snacking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dassen, Fania C M; Jansen, Anita; Nederkoorn, Chantal; Houben, Katrijn

    2016-01-01

    Obesity seems related to a preference for immediate gratification. By changing this focus on short term benefits to a more future-oriented outlook, delay discounting (impulsive decision making) can be changed by a manipulation of episodic future thinking (EFT). EFT comprises a vivid mental simulation of general future experiences. EFT may also affect consumption of unhealthy foods, which can be seen as a choice for immediate gratification. Recent research shows that future orientation should be tailored to the behavior at outcome. We therefore hypothesize that the effectiveness of EFT on food intake could be enhanced by making the content food-related. We conducted a 2 (future vs past thinking) by 2 (food vs non-food related thoughts) between-subject design experiment in female undergraduates (N = 94), to compare the efficacy of EFT versus the recalling of episodic past events in reducing discount rate and caloric intake. Content of imagery was either unrestricted or food-related. Participants engaged in EFT or control episodic imagery while snacks were offered to freely consume, and next the Monetary Choice Questionnaire was completed as a measure of delay discounting, while again being engaged in EFT or control imagery. Both types of EFT reduced delay discounting, however, only food-related EFT lead to more restricted caloric consumption. Thus, we found evidence that EFT reduced discount rate during decision making. However, in order to restrict caloric intake, EFT should entail food-related imagery. As discount rate and caloric intake were not related in the current sample, the underlying mechanism remains to be discovered. Results however suggest that EFT is a promising technique to resist immediate gratification. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Discount rates and the education gradient in mammography in the UK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bíró, Anikó

    2013-09-01

    I analyse intertemporal decisions on undertaking breast cancer screening by women aged 50-64  years in the UK and provide estimates of the rate of discounting potential future benefits of screening. I also analyse education differences in mammography decisions and examine the underlying mechanisms by which education influences breast cancer screening attendance. I estimate a structural model, which reveals that although there are differences in the disutility of breast cancer screening between education groups, there is no difference in the estimated discount factor. These results suggest that the observed education gradient is mainly due to differences in health behaviours and healthcare attitudes. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  20. Buyer-vendor coordination for fixed lifetime product with quantity discount under finite production rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qinghong; Luo, Jianwen; Duan, Yongrui

    2016-03-01

    Buyer-vendor coordination has been widely addressed; however, the fixed lifetime of the product is seldom considered. In this paper, we study the coordination of an integrated production-inventory system with quantity discount for a fixed lifetime product under finite production rate and deterministic demand. We first derive the buyer's ordering policy and the vendor's production batch size in decentralised and centralised systems. We then compare the two systems and show the non-coordination of the ordering policies and the production batch sizes. To improve the supply chain efficiency, we propose quantity discount contract and prove that the contract can coordinate the buyer-vendor supply chain. Finally, we present analytically tractable solutions and give a numerical example to illustrate the benefits of the proposed quantity discount strategy.

  1. 76 FR 72498 - Rate for Use in Federal Debt Collection and Discount and Rebate Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-11-23

    ... interest charges for outstanding debts owed to the Government. Treasury's Cash Management Requirements (TFM... DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY Fiscal Service Rate for Use in Federal Debt Collection and Discount and...: Pursuant to Section 11 of the Debt Collection Act of 1982, as amended, (31 U.S.C. 3717), the Secretary of...

  2. "Just Give Me a Number!" Practical Values for the Social Discount Rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Mark A.; Boardman, Anthony E.; Vining, Aidan R.; Weimer, David L.; Greenberg, David H.

    2004-01-01

    A major reason the quality of cost-benefit analysis (CBA) varies widely is inconsistent use of the social discount rate (SDR). This article offers guidance about the choice of the SDR. Namely, we recommend the following procedures: If the project is intragenerational (does not have effects beyond 50 years) and there is no crowding out of private…

  3. The impact of education on subjective discount rate in Ugandan villages

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bauer, Michal; Chytilová, J.

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 58, č. 4 (2010), s. 643-669 ISSN 0013-0079 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LC542 Keywords : education * subjective discount rate * rural populations * Uganda Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 1.392, year: 2010

  4. A note on high discount rates and depletion of primary forests

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bulte, E; vanSoest, D

    1996-01-01

    Conventional wisdom implies that high discount rates accelerate depletion of tropical forests. As shown in this article, this result does not necessarily hold in a two-state variable model that distinguishes between primary and secondary forest stocks. In the context of a fixed concession period and

  5. Tables of compound-discount interest rate multipliers for evaluating forestry investments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen L. Lundgren

    1971-01-01

    Tables, prepared by computer, are presented for 10 selected compound-discount interest rate multipliers commonly used in financial analyses of forestry investments. Two set of tables are given for each of the 10 multipliers. The first set gives multipliers for each year from 1 to 40 years; the second set gives multipliers at 5-year intervals from 5 to 160 years....

  6. The Discount Rate for Defense Decisionmaking: Some New Considerations,

    Science.gov (United States)

    1978-11-01

    the pre- corporate - income - tax cost of capital. Stockfisch calculates the pre-tax rate of return in several corporate sectors and takes a weighted average...economists assume 100 percent shifting of the corporate income tax , so if the corporate income tax is 50 percent, then the rate of return in the

  7. Implicit discount rates of vascular surgeons in the management of abdominal aortic aneurysms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enemark, U; Lyttkens, C H; Troëng, T; Weibull, H; Ranstam, J

    1998-01-01

    A growing empirical literature has investigated attitudes towards discounting of health benefits with regard to social choices of life-saving and health-improving measures and individuals' time preferences for the management of their own health. In this study, the authors elicited the time preferences of vascular surgeons in the context of management of small abdominal aortic aneurysms, for which the choice between early elective surgery and watchful waiting is not straightforward. They interviewed 25 of a random sample of 30 Swedish vascular surgeons. Considerable variation in the time preferences was found in the choices between watchful waiting and surgical intervention among the otherwise very homogeneous group of surgeons. The discount rates derived ranged from 5.3% to 19.4%. The median discount rate (10.4%) is similar to those usually reported for social choices concerning life-saving measures. The surgeons who were employed in university hospitals had higher discount rates than did their colleagues in county and district hospitals.

  8. Delay Discounting Rates Are Temporally Stable in an Equivalent Present Value Procedure Using Theoretical and Area under the Curve Analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, Justin; McKay, Ryan

    2012-01-01

    Temporal discounting rates have become a popular dependent variable in social science research. While choice procedures are commonly employed to measure discounting rates, equivalent present value (EPV) procedures may be more sensitive to experimental manipulation. However, their use has been impeded by the absence of test-retest reliability data.…

  9. 75 FR 61747 - Discount Energy Group, LLC; Supplemental Notice That Initial Market-Based Rate Filing Includes...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-06

    ... proceeding of Discount Energy Group, LLC's application for market-based rate authority, with an accompanying... DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY Federal Energy Regulatory Commission [Docket No. ER10-2803-000] Discount Energy Group, LLC; Supplemental Notice That Initial Market-Based Rate Filing Includes Request for Blanket...

  10. ChargeOut! : discounted cash flow compared with traditional machine-rate analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ted Bilek

    2008-01-01

    ChargeOut!, a discounted cash-flow methodology in spreadsheet format for analyzing machine costs, is compared with traditional machine-rate methodologies. Four machine-rate models are compared and a common data set representative of logging skidders’ costs is used to illustrate the differences between ChargeOut! and the machine-rate methods. The study found that the...

  11. Stated time preferences for health: a systematic review and meta analysis of private and social discount rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahboub-Ahari, Alireza; Pourreza, Abolghasem; Sari, Ali Akbari; Rahimi Foroushani, Abbas; Heydari, Hassan

    2014-01-01

    The present study aimed to provide better insight on methodological issues related to time preference studies, and to estimate private and social discount rates, using a rigorous systematic review and meta-analysis. We searched PubMed, EMBASE and Proquest databases in June 2013. All studies had estimated private and social time preference rates for health outcomes through stated preference approach, recognized eligible for inclusion. We conducted both fixed and random effect meta-analyses using mean discount rate and standard deviation of the included studies. I-square statistics was used for testing heterogeneity of the studies. Private and social discount rates were estimated separately via Stata11 software. Out of 44 screened full texts, 8 population-based empirical studies were included in qualitative synthesis. Reported time preference rates for own health were from 0.036 to 0.07 and for social health from 0.04 to 0.2. Private and social discount rates were estimated at 0.056 (95% CI: 0.038, 0.074) and 0.066 (95% CI: 0.064, 0.068), respectively. Considering the impact of time preference on healthy behaviors and because of timing issues, individual's time preference as a key determinant of policy making should be taken into account. Direct translation of elicited discount rates to the official discount rates has been remained questionable. Decisions about the proper discount rate for health context, may need a cross-party consensus among health economists and policy makers.

  12. A Social Discount Rate for Climate Damage to Future Generations Based on Regulatory Law

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Davidson, M.D. [Department of Philosophy, Faculty of Humanities, University of Amsterdam, Nieuwe Doelenstraat 15, 1012 CP Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2006-05-15

    This article examines the implications for the social discount rate for damage due to climate change if risk to future generations is handled in accordance with the laws regulating our handling of risk to contemporaries. The conclusions are the following. Under current law, neither geographic distance nor differences in wealth between risk creator and risk bearer play any part in establishing a standard of 'reasonable care'. The concept of intergenerational justice requires these same principles to be applied in the intergenerational context too, implying a zero consumption rate of interest for climate damage. Assuming that the extent to which mitigation is at the expense of alternative investments is equal to society's marginal propensity to save, the social discount rate becomes society's marginal propensity to save times the long-term market rate of return on private investment, implying a social discount rate of around one per cent or a fraction of one per cent. This formula is exact under the assumption of average saving behaviour and by attributing consumption losses due to investment in damage prevention before damage occurs to the risk creator and after damage occurs to the risk bearer.

  13. The Dividend Discount Model with Multiple Growth Rates of Any Order for Stock Evaluation

    OpenAIRE

    Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser; El-Khatib, Youssef

    2018-01-01

    In this paper we provide a general solution for the dividend discount model in order to compute the intrinsic value of a common stock that allows for multiple stage growth rates of any predetermined number of periods. A mathematical proof is provided for the suggested general solution. A numerical application is also presented. The solution introduced in this paper is expected to improve on the precision of stock valuation, which might be of fundamental importance for investors as well as fin...

  14. Incorporating a Time Horizon in Rate-of-Return Estimations: Discounted Cash Flow Model in Electric Transmission Rate Cases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chatterjee, Bishu; Sharp, Peter A.

    2006-01-01

    Electric transmission and other rate cases use a form of the discounted cash flow model with a single long-term growth rate to estimate rates of return on equity. It cannot incorporate information about the appropriate time horizon for which analysts' estimates of earnings growth have predictive powers. Only a non-constant growth model can explicitly recognize the importance of the time horizon in an ROE calculation. (author)

  15. The discount rate in the economic evaluation of prevention: a thought experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonneux, L; Birnie, E

    2001-02-01

    In the standard economic model of evaluation, constant discount rates devalue the long term health benefits of prevention strongly. This study shows that it is unlikely that this reflects societal preference. A thought experiment in a cause elimination life table calculates savings of eliminating cardiovascular disease from the Dutch population. A cost effectiveness analysis calculates the acceptable costs of such an intervention at a threshold of 18 000 Euro per saved life year. Cause specific mortality (all cardiovascular causes of death and all other causes) and health care costs (all costs of cardiovascular disease and all other causes of costs) by age and male sex of 1994. At a 0% discount rate, an intervention eliminating cardiovascular disease may cost 71 100 Euro. At the same threshold but at discount rates of 3% or 6%, the same intervention may cost 8100 Euro (8.8 times less) or 1100 Euro (65 times less). The standard economic model needs more realistic duration dependent models of time preference, which reflect societal preference.

  16. Results of reference pricing and reimbursement discount rate schemes of Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guvenc Kockaya

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: General Directorate of Pharmaceuticals and Pharmacy (IEGM is responsible for setting all prices for human medicinal products. The reference pricing system is used for setting these prices. Reference countries are reviewed annually and may be subject to certain alterations. There were 5 reference countries in 2009: Spain, Italy, Germany, France and Greece. The aim of this study is to show the distribution of reference countries which were used for reference pricing.METHODS: The price list of pharmaceuticals which was published by IEGM on 15.04.2011 was used for analysis. Distribution of reference countries and prices were evaluated.RESULTS: Prices of 6,251 generic and 3,703 original products were set according to the price list. 5,283 of generics and 3,306 of originals were in the positive list for reimbursement. Reference pricing was used for 2,352 generics and 2,281 originals. Prices of the remaining were set outside of reference pricing. 32 different countries were used for reference pricing. Italy was the most popular country for reference pricing. Even if it was not a reference country, Germany was used in some of the pharmaceuticals. The average reimbursement discount rate and price were 24.43% and 249 TL, respectively. There were no colerations between price and reimbursement discount rate, or reference country and reimbursement rate.CONCLUSION: It has been shown that Italy has the highest impact on the pricing of all pharmaceuticals in Turkey. Even if it was not a reference country, Germany showed to affect pharmaceuticals more than other countries which were also not used for reference pricing. Even if reimbursement discount rates are stated by the Social Security Institution (SGK, there are different discount rates for pharmaceuticals. The analysis stated that there were correlation between price, country and discount rates. This analysis is first for the literature. Further analysis is necessary in the light of price

  17. Financial modeling in medicine: cash flow, basic metrics, the time value of money, discount rates, and internal rate of return.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lexa, Frank James; Berlin, Jonathan W

    2005-03-01

    In this article, the authors cover tools for financial modeling. Commonly used time lines and cash flow diagrams are discussed. Commonly used but limited terms such as payback and breakeven are introduced. The important topics of the time value of money and discount rates are introduced to lay the foundation for their use in modeling and in more advanced metrics such as the internal rate of return. Finally, the authors broach the more sophisticated topic of net present value.

  18. Heroin and cocaine abusers have higher discount rates for delayed rewards than alcoholics or non-drug-using controls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirby, Kris N; Petry, Nancy M

    2004-04-01

    To test a prediction of the discounting model of impulsiveness that discount rates would be positively associated with addiction. The delay-discount rate refers to the rate of reduction in the present value of a future reward as the delay to that reward increases. We estimated participants' discount rates on the basis of their pattern of choices between smaller immediate rewards ($11-80) and larger, delayed rewards ($25-85; at delays from 1 week to 6 months) in a questionnaire format. Participants had a one-in-six chance of winning a reward that they chose on one randomly selected trial. Heroin (n = 27), cocaine (n = 41) and alcohol (n = 33) abusers and non-drug-using controls (n = 44) were recruited from advertisements. They were tested in a drug abuse research clinic at a medical school. On average, the cocaine and heroin groups had higher rates than controls (both P rates for heroin abusers (P = 0.03), but not for cocaine or alcohol abusers (both P > 0.50). These data suggest that discount rates vary with the preferred drug of abuse, and that high discount rates should be considered in the development of substance abuse prevention and treatment efforts.

  19. Temporal framing and the hidden-zero effect: rate-dependent outcomes on delay discounting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naudé, Gideon P; Kaplan, Brent A; Reed, Derek D; Henley, Amy J; DiGennaro Reed, Florence D

    2018-05-01

    Recent research suggests that presenting time intervals as units (e.g., days) or as specific dates, can modulate the degree to which humans discount delayed outcomes. Another framing effect involves explicitly stating that choosing a smaller-sooner reward is mutually exclusive to receiving a larger-later reward, thus presenting choices as an extended sequence. In Experiment 1, participants (N = 201) recruited from Amazon Mechanical Turk completed the Monetary Choice Questionnaire in a 2 (delay framing) by 2 (zero framing) design. Regression suggested a main effect of delay, but not zero, framing after accounting for other demographic variables and manipulations. We observed a rate-dependent effect for the date-framing group, such that those with initially steep discounting exhibited greater sensitivity to the manipulation than those with initially shallow discounting. Subsequent analyses suggest these effects cannot be explained by regression to the mean. Experiment 2 addressed the possibility that the null effect of zero framing was due to within-subject exposure to the hidden- and explicit-zero conditions. A new Amazon Mechanical Turk sample completed the Monetary Choice Questionnaire in either hidden- or explicit-zero formats. Analyses revealed a main effect of reward magnitude, but not zero framing, suggesting potential limitations to the generality of the hidden-zero effect. © 2018 Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

  20. Towards a social discount rate for the economic evaluation of health technologies in Germany: an exploratory analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schad, Mareike; John, Jürgen

    2012-04-01

    Over the last decades, methods for the economic evaluation of health care technologies were increasingly used to inform reimbursement decisions. For a short time, the German Statutory Health Insurance makes use of these methods to support reimbursement decisions on patented drugs. In this context, the discounting procedure emerges as a critical component of these methods, as discount rates can strongly affect the resulting incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. The aim of this paper is to identify the appropriate value of a social discount rate to be used by the German Statutory Health Insurance for the economic evaluation of health technologies. On theoretical grounds, we build on the widespread view of contemporary economists that the social rate of time preference (SRTP) is the adequate social discount rate. For quantifying the SRTP, we first apply the market behaviour approach, which assumes that the SRTP is reflected in observable market interest rates. As a second approach, we derive the SRTP from optimal growth theory by using the Ramsey equation. A major part of the paper is devoted to specify the parameters of this equation. Depending on various assumptions, our empirical findings result in the range of 1.75-4.2% for the SRTP. A reasonable base case discount rate for Germany, thus, would be about 3%. Furthermore, we deal with the much debated question whether a common discount rate for costs and health benefits or a lower rate for health should be applied in health economic evaluations. In the German social health insurance system, no exogenously fixed budget constraint does exist. When evaluating a new health technology, the health care decision maker is obliged to conduct an economic evaluation in order to examine whether there is an economically appropriate relation between the value of the health gains and the additional costs which are given by the value of the consumption losses due to the additional health care expenditures. Therefore, a discount

  1. The discount rate and the value of remaining years of life

    OpenAIRE

    Hartwick, John

    2008-01-01

    We back out an estimate of a personal discount rate of between 3 and 4 percent for a person with a life expectancy of 74 years who dies at age 30 (or 40) and has a value of statistical life of $6.3 million. Central to these calculations is the series generated by Murphy and Topel of value of life years (the dollar value of consumption plus the dollar value of leisure, with some smoothing for income in retirement). We employ the Makeham "model" of life expectancy in our calculations.

  2. Discounting in Economic Evaluations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attema, Arthur E; Brouwer, Werner B F; Claxton, Karl

    2018-05-19

    Appropriate discounting rules in economic evaluations have received considerable attention in the literature and in national guidelines for economic evaluations. Rightfully so, as discounting can be quite influential on the outcomes of economic evaluations. The most prominent controversies regarding discounting involve the basis for and height of the discount rate, whether costs and effects should be discounted at the same rate, and whether discount rates should decline or stay constant over time. Moreover, the choice for discount rules depends on the decision context one adopts as the most relevant. In this article, we review these issues and debates, and describe and discuss the current discounting recommendations of the countries publishing their national guidelines. We finish the article by proposing a research agenda.

  3. Making the implicit explicit: A look inside the implicit discount rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schleich, Joachim; Gassmann, Xavier; Faure, Corinne; Meissner, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    Implicit discount rates (IDRs) are employed in energy models to capture household investment decisions, yet the factors behind the IDR and their respective implications for policy-making usually remain blurred and fractional. The proposed comprehensive framework distinguishes three broad categories of factors underlying the IDR for household adoption of energy-efficient technologies (EETs): preferences (notably over time, risk, loss, debt, and the environment), predictable (ir)rational behavior (bounded rationality, rational inattention, behavioral biases), and external barriers to energy efficiency. Existing empirical findings suggest that the factors underlying the IDRs that differ across household characteristics and technologies should be accounted for in energy models. Furthermore, the framework allows for a fresh look at the interplay of IDRs and policies. We argue that a simple observation of high IDRs (or observing correlations between IDRs and socio-economic characteristics) does not provide guidance for policy-making since the underlying sources cannot be identified. Instead, we propose that some of the factors underlying the IDR - notably external barriers - can be changed (through directed policy interventions) whereas other factors - notably preferences and predictable (ir)rational behavior - are innate and can only be taken into account (through reactive policy interventions). - Highlights: • Implicit discount rates (IDRs) reflect preferences, predictable (ir)rational behaviors and external barriers. • The factors underlying the IDRs can be used to design directed and reactive policies. • IDRs in energy models should vary by household and technology characteristics.

  4. Influence of the discount rate when comparing costs of different nuclear fuel cycles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Le Dars, A.; Loaec, Ch.

    2007-01-01

    The article describes the methodology and technical economic results obtained by Cea in the DERECO project. This project was aimed at evaluating ground-breaking and intricate scenarios of the nuclear fuel cycle, and developed on the long term (150 years), in the context of France. All 5 scenarios studied assume that the reliance on nuclear energy will continue in order to satisfy the electricity demand. Despite uncertainties, the trends are breaking free from the analysis. It appears that the scenarios in which fourth generation fast reactors take part are globally more economical than the keeping to the present strategy of plutonium mono-recycling in PWR. The scenario in which fuel reprocessing is stopped has a total cost concerning the fuel cycle similar to that of the present strategy but the disposal cost is twice as high because of the necessity of disposing spent fuels directly in geological formations. The comparative costs of the different scenarios are set out and the influence of the discount rate is highlighted. One must keep in mind that the actualization theory entails a diminishing value for long term costs due to an unavoidable mechanical effect of the discount rate

  5. Discounting and nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, P.M.S.

    1984-01-01

    The paper describes the practice of discounting and its applicability to nuclear power, and the choice of discount rates. Opportunity cost of capital; risk; social time preference; intergenerational equity; non-monetary aspects; and discounting and nuclear energy; are all discussed. (U.K.)

  6. Tracking the Discount: Tuition Discount Rates, Net Tuition Revenue, and Efforts to Inform Institutional Practices. Professional File. Article 133, Fall 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Natalie Pullaro; Redd, Kenneth E.

    2013-01-01

    This article uses findings from the 2012 Tuition Discounting Study (TDS) conducted by the National Association of College and University Business Officers (NACUBO) to provide a framework for institutional researchers to develop and adapt their own custom tuition discounting definitions and formulas. Under tuition discounting, colleges and…

  7. 78 FR 65430 - Notice of Rate To Be Used for Federal Debt Collection, and Discount and Rebate Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-10-31

    ... assessing interest charges for outstanding debts owed to the Government (The Debt Collection Act of 1982, as... DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY Fiscal Service Notice of Rate To Be Used for Federal Debt Collection... rate to be used for Federal debt collection, and discount and rebate evaluation. SUMMARY: The Secretary...

  8. ChargeOut! : determining machine and capital equipment charge-out rates using discounted cash-flow analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    E.M. (Ted) Bilek

    2007-01-01

    The model ChargeOut! was developed to determine charge-out rates or rates of return for machines and capital equipment. This paper introduces a costing methodology and applies it to a piece of capital equipment. Although designed for the forest industry, the methodology is readily transferable to other sectors. Based on discounted cash-flow analysis, ChargeOut!...

  9. The impact of building orientation and discount rates on a Portuguese reference building refurbishment decision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brandão de Vasconcelos, Ana; Cabaço, António; Pinheiro, Manuel Duarte; Manso, Armando

    2016-01-01

    Refurbishment, as part of the construction industry, has a strong global impact, not only from the viewpoint of economies but also from social and energy-efficiency perspectives. A thermal refurbishment process, in particular, involves numerous decisions and choices; the decision-makers being ultimately confronted with two major questions: which criterion should be adopted in the choice of the refurbishment construction solutions and which refurbishment construction solutions should be chosen? In this paper, a criterion based on technical and economic points of view is proposed, aiming to identify the cost-optimal package of energy efficient solutions from among a set of possible refurbishment measures, within the life cycle of buildings. Sensitivity analyses are also performed so that the results may help the decision-maker choose the appropriate refurbishment solutions to be adopted when different discount rates and building orientations are taken into consideration. A total of seven scenarios, for a macroeconomic perspective, and nine, for a financial perspective, are performed. The costoptimal methodology adopted, following the Directive 2010/31/EU (2010) recommendations, is applied to a Portuguese reference building. The analysis carried out allows obtaining low global life cycle costs solutions and points towards nearly Zero Energy Building (nZEB) concept. The results are important for drawing national political instruments on buildings energy efficiency. - Highlights: •Building refurbishment decision based on technical and economic points of view. •35.000 Packages of thermal rehabilitation solutions considered. •Building orientation and discount rate impact on the cost-optimal package of solutions. •Portuguese reference building case base.

  10. Determining a Relationship between Higher Education Financial Position and Tuition Discount Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Browning, Julianna

    2013-01-01

    Institutions have increased the practice of tuition discounting, that is, the strategic use of price discrimination. During the past 30 years, both the average percent discount given to students and the proportion of students receiving tuition breaks have increased. As this practice has increased, there are financial determinants and implications…

  11. Effects of Gainsharing Provisions on the Selection of a Discount Rate for a Defined Benefit Pension Plan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert J. Rietz

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the effect of gainsharing provisions on the selection of a discount rate for a defined benefit pension plan. The paper uses a traditional actuarial approach of discounting liabilities using the expected return of the associated pension fund. A stochastic Excel model was developed to simulate the effect of varying investment returns on a pension fund with four asset classes. Lognormal distributions were fitted to historical returns of two of the asset classes; large company stocks and long-term government bonds. A third lognormal distribution was designed to represent the investment returns of alternative investments, such as real estate and private equity. The fourth asset class represented short term cash investments and that return was held constant. The following variables were analyzed to determine their relative impact of gainsharing on the selection of a discount rate: hurdle rate, percentage of gainsharing, actuarial asset method smoothing period, and variations in asset allocation. A 50% gainsharing feature can reduce the discount rate for a defined benefit pension plan from 0.5% to more than 2.5%, depending on the gainsharing design and asset allocation.

  12. Intergenerational discounting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schelling, T.C.

    1995-01-01

    A ''discount rate'' for the consumption of future generations from current investments for their benefit is typically composed of two parts: ''time preference'' and an allowance for the lower marginal utility of consumption due to higher average levels of consumption in the future. Time preference would be involved if one were postponing one's own consumption; it has little or nothing to do with income redistribution, which is what greenhouse abatement is about. A lower marginal utility of consumption is an anomaly in income redistribution: we rarely deliberately transfer consumption from the less to the more well-to-do. Time may serve as a kind of measure of distance; we may prefer beneficiaries who are closer in time, in geographical distance, in culture, surely in kinship. Perhaps to keep our thinking straight we should use a term like ''depreciation'', rather than ''discounting''. (Author)

  13. On the social rate of discount: the case for macroenvironmental policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Doeleman, J.A.

    Concern for the rapidly growing scale and intensity of the human exploitation of the environment, in particular the alienation of natural ecosystems, but also resource exhaustion, pollution, and congestion, leads one to wonder about the short time horizons allowed for in decision making. Time preference is dictated by the rate of interest, allowing in practice a horizon often not exceeding several decades. I argue that this is unsatisfactory. Some minimal social rate of discount should not be enforced. Instead, it is more feasible to set absolute environmental standards, thereby introducing quantity constraints on our decision making, within which time preference can be permitted to find its own level. This acknowledges that the myopia of human vision may not be a flaw but rather a biological design which has served us well in evolution. It may, therefore, be better to change the rules by introducing self-imposed collective constraints than to try to change the shortsightedness of people in their day-to-day grass-roots decision making.

  14. Brain Activity in Valuation Regions while Thinking about the Future Predicts Individual Discount Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Nicole; Kim, B. Kyu; Zauberman, Gal

    2013-01-01

    People vary widely in how much they discount delayed rewards, yet little is known about the sources of these differences. Here we demonstrate that neural activity in ventromedial prefrontal cortex (VMPFC) and ventral striatum (VS) when human subjects are asked to merely think about the future—specifically, to judge the subjective length of future time intervals—predicts delay discounting. High discounters showed lower activity for longer time delays, while low discounters showed the opposite pattern. Our results demonstrate that the correlation between VMPFC and VS activity and discounting occurs even in the absence of choices about future rewards, and does not depend on a person explicitly evaluating future outcomes or judging their self-relevance. This suggests a link between discounting and basic processes involved in thinking about the future, such as temporal perception. Our results also suggest that reducing impatience requires not suppression of VMPFC and VS activity altogether, but rather modulation of how these regions respond to the present versus the future. PMID:23926268

  15. Time value of emission and technology discounting rate for off-grid electricity generation in India using intermediate pyrolysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Patel, Amit; Sarkar, Prabir; Tyagi, Himanshu; Singh, Harpreet

    2016-01-01

    The environmental impact assessment of a process over its entire operational lifespan is an important issue. Estimation of life cycle emission helps in predicting the contribution of a given process to abate (or to pollute) the environmental emission scenario. Considering diminishing and time-dependent effect of emission, assessment of the overall effect of emissions is very complex. The paper presents a generalized methodology for arriving at a single emission discounting number for a process option, using the concept of time value of carbon emission flow. This number incorporates the effect of the emission resulting from the process over the entire operational lifespan. The advantage of this method is its quantitative aspect as well as its flexible nature. It can be applied to any process. The method is demonstrated with the help of an Intermediate Pyrolysis process when used to generate off-grid electricity and opting biochar route for disposing straw residue. The scenarios of very high net emission to very high net carbon sequestration is generated using process by careful selection of process parameters for different scenarios. For these different scenarios, the process discounting rate was determined and its outcome is discussed. The paper also proposes a process specific eco-label that mentions the discounting rates. - Highlight: • Methodology to obtain emission discounting rate for a process is proposed. • The method includes all components of life cycle emission converts into a time dependent discounting number. • A case study of Intermediate Pyrolysis is used to obtain such number for a range of processes. • The method is useful to determine if the effect from the operation of a process will lead to a net absorption of emission or net accumulation of emission in the environment.

  16. Time value of emission and technology discounting rate for off-grid electricity generation in India using intermediate pyrolysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Patel, Amit, E-mail: amitrp@iitrpr.ac.in [Indian Institute of Technology Ropar, Nangal Road, Rupnagar 140001, Punjab (India); Faculty of Technology and Engineering, The Maharaja Sayajirao University of Baroda, Vadodara 390001, Gujarat (India); Sarkar, Prabir; Tyagi, Himanshu; Singh, Harpreet [Indian Institute of Technology Ropar, Nangal Road, Rupnagar 140001, Punjab (India)

    2016-07-15

    The environmental impact assessment of a process over its entire operational lifespan is an important issue. Estimation of life cycle emission helps in predicting the contribution of a given process to abate (or to pollute) the environmental emission scenario. Considering diminishing and time-dependent effect of emission, assessment of the overall effect of emissions is very complex. The paper presents a generalized methodology for arriving at a single emission discounting number for a process option, using the concept of time value of carbon emission flow. This number incorporates the effect of the emission resulting from the process over the entire operational lifespan. The advantage of this method is its quantitative aspect as well as its flexible nature. It can be applied to any process. The method is demonstrated with the help of an Intermediate Pyrolysis process when used to generate off-grid electricity and opting biochar route for disposing straw residue. The scenarios of very high net emission to very high net carbon sequestration is generated using process by careful selection of process parameters for different scenarios. For these different scenarios, the process discounting rate was determined and its outcome is discussed. The paper also proposes a process specific eco-label that mentions the discounting rates. - Highlight: • Methodology to obtain emission discounting rate for a process is proposed. • The method includes all components of life cycle emission converts into a time dependent discounting number. • A case study of Intermediate Pyrolysis is used to obtain such number for a range of processes. • The method is useful to determine if the effect from the operation of a process will lead to a net absorption of emission or net accumulation of emission in the environment.

  17. Individual differences in discount rate are associated with demand for self-administered cocaine, but not sucrose.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koffarnus, Mikhail N; Woods, James H

    2013-01-01

    Substance abusers, including cocaine abusers, discount delayed rewards to a greater extent than do matched controls. In the current experiment, individual differences in discounting of delayed rewards in rats (choice of one immediate over three delayed sucrose pellets) were assessed for associations with demand for either sucrose pellets or an intravenous dose of 0.1 mg/kg/infusion cocaine. Twenty-four male Sprague Dawley rats were split into three groups based on sensitivity to delay to reinforcement. Then, demand for sucrose pellets and cocaine was determined across a range of fixed-ratio values. Delay discounting was then reassessed to determine the stability of this measure over the course of the experiment. Individual differences in impulsive choice were positively associated with elasticity of demand for cocaine, a measure of reinforcer value, indicating that rats having higher discount rates also valued cocaine more. Impulsive choice was not associated with the level of cocaine consumption as price approached 0 or with any parameter associated with demand for sucrose. Individual sensitivity to delay was correlated with the initial assessment when reassessed at the end of the experiment, although impulsive choice increased for this cohort of rats as a whole. These findings suggest that impulsive choice in rats is positively associated with valuation of cocaine, but not sucrose. © 2011 The Authors, Addiction Biology © 2011 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  18. Discounting and Expropriation Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Giovanni Immordino; Mario Padula

    2007-01-01

    This paper investigates the association between discounting and risk of expropriation and provides the theoretical conditions that make a positive association consistent with rationality. Moreover, using a national representative sample and a representative sample of the 50+ in eleven European countries, we show that discounting increases with expropriation risk. The two surveys give direct measures of discount rate as well as measures derived from households consumption decisions and provide...

  19. Cognitive Procedures and Hyperbolic Discounting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nir, A.

    2004-01-01

    "Hyperbolic discount functions are characterized by a relatively high discount rate over short horizons and a relatively low discount rate over long horizons" (Laibson 1997).We suggest two cognitive procedures where individuals perceive future utility as decreasing at a decreasing rate as a function

  20. The Choice of Discount Rate Applicable to Government Resource Use: Theory and Limitations

    Science.gov (United States)

    1987-12-01

    that postulates "the greatest good for the greatest number," as expressed by Jeremy Bentham in 1789. Although it might not be relevant in a modern...believed that there is no legiti- mate reason to discount the utilities of future generations. Along with Bentham in 1789, he believed the utility of each

  1. Using the IPEDS Peer Analysis System to Compare Tuition Discount Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duggan, Michael; Mathews, Rebecca

    2005-01-01

    Tuition discounting began in the 1970s as the practice of using university funds to augment federal, state, and private aid and scholarships. When the 1980s saw a decrease in the number of high school seniors, universities began to compete in the arena of price for the first time, sparking what has been called an "arms race" of tuition discounting…

  2. Impatience and Grades: Delay-Discount Rates Correlate Negatively with College Gpa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirby, K.N.; Winston, G.C.; Santiesteban, M.

    2005-01-01

    Because the rewards of academic performance in college are often delayed, the delay-discounting model of impulsiveness (Ainslie (1975) [Ainslie, G. Specious reward: A behavioral theory of impulsiveness and impulse control. Psychological Bulletin, 82 (4), 463-496] predicts that academic performance should tend to decrease as people place less…

  3. A quantitative approach to evaluating the GWP timescale through implicit discount rates

    OpenAIRE

    Sarofim, Marcus C.; Giordano, Michael R.

    2018-01-01

    The 100-year Global Warming Potential (GWP) is the primary metric used to compare the climate impacts of different greenhouse gases (GHGs). The GWP relies on radiative forcing rather than damages, assumes constant future concentrations, and integrates over a timescale of 100 years without discounting: these choices lead to a metric which is transparent and simple to calculate, but have also been criticized. In this paper, we take a quantitative approach to evaluating the choice of time-horizo...

  4. Hyperbolic Discounting of the Far-Distant Future

    OpenAIRE

    Anchugina, Nina; Ryan, Matthew; Slinko, Arkadii

    2017-01-01

    We prove an analogue of Weitzman's (1998) famous result that an exponential discounter who is uncertain of the appropriate exponential discount rate should discount the far-distant future using the lowest (i.e., most patient) of the possible discount rates. Our analogous result applies to a hyperbolic discounter who is uncertain about the appropriate hyperbolic discount rate. In this case, the far-distant future should be discounted using the probability-weighted harmonic mean of the possible...

  5. Effects of a Capital Investment and a Discount Rate on the Optimal Operational Duration of an HLW Repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Sung Ki; Lee, Min Soo; Choi, Heui Joo; Choi, Jong Won

    2008-01-01

    This study aims to estimate the effects of a capital investment and a discount rate on the optimal operational duration of an HLW repository. According to the previous researches of the KRS(Korea Reference System) for an HLW repository, the amounts of 7,068,200 C$K and 2,636.2 MEUR are necessary to construct and operate surface and underground facilities. Since these huge costs can be a burden to some national economies, a study for a cost optimization should be performed. So we aim to drive the dominant cost driver for an optimal operational duration. A longer operational duration may be needed to dispose of more spent fuels continuously from a nuclear power plant, or to attain a retrievability of an HLW repository at a depth of 500 m below the ground level in a stable plutonic rock body. In this sense, an extended operational duration for an HLW repository affects the overall disposal costs of a repository. In this paper, only the influence of a capital investment and a discount rate was estimated from the view of optimized economics. Because these effects must be significant factors to minimize the overall disposal costs based on minimizing the sum of operational costs and capital investments

  6. Optimal conservation resource allocation under variable economic and ecological time discounting rates in boreal forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazziotta, Adriano; Pouzols, Federico Montesino; Mönkkönen, Mikko; Kotiaho, Janne S; Strandman, Harri; Moilanen, Atte

    2016-09-15

    Resource allocation to multiple alternative conservation actions is a complex task. A common trade-off occurs between protection of smaller, expensive, high-quality areas versus larger, cheaper, partially degraded areas. We investigate optimal allocation into three actions in boreal forest: current standard forest management rules, setting aside of mature stands, or setting aside of clear-cuts. We first estimated how habitat availability for focal indicator species and economic returns from timber harvesting develop through time as a function of forest type and action chosen. We then developed an optimal resource allocation by accounting for budget size and habitat availability of indicator species in different forest types. We also accounted for the perspective adopted towards sustainability, modeled via temporal preference and economic and ecological time discounting. Controversially, we found that in boreal forest set-aside followed by protection of clear-cuts can become a winning cost-effective strategy when accounting for habitat requirements of multiple species, long planning horizon, and limited budget. It is particularly effective when adopting a long-term sustainability perspective, and accounting for present revenues from timber harvesting. The present analysis assesses the cost-effective conditions to allocate resources into an inexpensive conservation strategy that nevertheless has potential to produce high ecological values in the future. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Cost-effectiveness of a potential future Helicobacter pylori vaccine in the Netherlands: the impact of varying the discount rate for health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Vries, Robin; Klok, Rogier M; Brouwers, Jacobus R B J; Postma, Maarten J

    2009-02-05

    To estimate the cost-effectiveness of a potential Helicobacter pylori (HP) vaccine for the Dutch situation, we developed a Markov model. Several HP prevalence scenarios were assessed. Additionally, we assessed the impact of the discount rate for health on the outcomes, as this influence can be profound for vaccines. When applying the current discount rate of 1.5% for health, the expected cost-effectiveness of HP vaccination is estimated below the informal Dutch threshold of euro 20,000/LYG when the HP prevalence is assumed > or =20% in the Dutch population. In conclusion, we showed that HP vaccination could possibly be a cost-effective intervention. However, this depends to a large extend on the prevalence of HP in the population. Furthermore, we showed the large impact of the discount rate for health on the cost-effectiveness of a HP vaccination program, illustrative for other vaccination programs.

  8. Methods of economic analysis applied to fusion research: discount rate determination and the fossil fuel price effect

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1978-09-25

    In current and previous efforts, ECON has provided a preliminary economic assessment of a fusion research program. Part of this effort was the demonstration of a methodology for the estimation of reactor system costs and risk and for the treatment of program alternatives as a series of steps (tests) to buy information, thereby controlling program risk and providing a sound economic rationale for properly constructed research programs. The first phase of work also identified two areas which greatly affect the overall economic evaluation of fusion research and which warranted further study in the second phase. This led to the two tasks of the second phase reported herein: (1) discount rate determination and (2) evaluation of the effect of the expectation of the introduction of fusion power on current fossil fuel prices. In the first task, various conceptual measures of the social rate of discount were reviewed and critiqued. In the second task, a benefit area that had been called out by ECON was further examined. Long-range R and D yields short-term benefits in the form of lower nonrenewable energy resource prices because the R and D provides an expectation of future competition for the remaining reserves at the time of technology availability. ECON developed a model of optimal OPEC petroleum pricing as a function of the expectation of future competing technologies. It was shown that the existence of this expectation lowers the optimal OPEC export price and that accelerated technology R and D programs should provide further price decreases. These price reductions translate into benefits to the U.S. of at least a billion dollars.

  9. Towards a healthier discount procedure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klock, Rogier M; Brouwer, Werner Bf; Annemans, Lieven Jp; Bos, Jasper M; Postma, Maarten J

    2005-02-01

    Most national guidelines for pharmacoeconomic research prescribe discounting, mostly of money and health against the same rate. There is much debate on whether this is adequate. Two theoretical arguments, the consistency argument of Weinstein and Stason, and the paralyzing paradox of Keeler and Cretin, are mostly responsible for the current standards. However, more recently, several authors have indicated that the basis to claim the necessity of using similar discount rates is rather weak, both practically and theoretically. In terms of finding a new theoretical basis on which to base discount rates for money and, in particular, health, Van Hout has made an important suggestion arguing that the discount rate for health could be based on the expected growth in life expectancy and the diminishing marginal utility related to such additional health. Similarly, Gravelle and Smith argue that if the value of health grows over time, discount rates that are used for costs cannot directly be applied to effects, but should be adjusted downwards.

  10. Cost-effectiveness of a potential future Helicobacter pylori vaccine in the Netherlands : The impact of varying the discount rate for health

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Vries, Robin; Klok, Rogier M.; Brouwers, Jacobus R. B. J.; Postma, Maarten J.

    2009-01-01

    To estimate the cost-effectiveness of a potential Helicobacter pylori (HP) vaccine for the Dutch situation, we developed a Markov model. Several HP prevalence scenarios were assessed. Additionally, we assessed the impact of the discount rate for health on the outcomes, as this influence can be

  11. Social Discounting under Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Jia; Pei, Guanxiong; Ma, Qingguo

    2017-01-01

    As a measure of how prosocial behavior depends on social distance, social discounting is defined as the decrease in generosity between the decision maker and the recipient as the social distance increases. While risk is a ubiquitous part of modern life, there is limited research on the relationship between risk and prosocial behavior. In the present experiment, we empirically test whether risk has an influence on social discounting. We use the choice titration procedure to examine this effect. Our data show that independent of risk, participants are less eager to forego money and exhibit more selfishness toward a specific person when the social distance increases; these findings are reflected in the hyperbolic model. Interestingly, risk influences the shape of the social discounting function, which is reflected in the notable different discount rates. Individuals who make decisions under risk yield a smaller discount rate than those who make decisions without risk, i.e., under risk subjects reduce less their generosity as a function of the social distance. Furthermore, this distinct type of generosity occurs typically among individuals with 10-distance recipients but not with the closest- and furthest-social-distance recipients.

  12. Individual Differences in Discount Rate Are Associated With Demand for Self-Administered Cocaine, But Not Sucrose

    OpenAIRE

    Koffarnus, Mikhail N.; Woods, James H.

    2011-01-01

    Substance abusers, including cocaine abusers, discount delayed rewards to a greater extent than do matched controls. In the current experiment, individual differences in discounting of delayed rewards in rats (choice of one immediate over three delayed sucrose pellets) were assessed for associations with demand for either sucrose pellets or an i.v. dose of 0.1 mg/kg/infusion cocaine. Twenty-four male Sprague Dawley rats were split into three groups based on sensitivity to delay to reinforceme...

  13. Anodal Stimulation of the Left DLPFC Increases IGT Scores and Decreases Delay Discounting Rate in Healthy Males

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qinghua He

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Previous correlational imaging studies have implicated the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC in decision making. Using High-Definition Transcranial Direct Current Stimulation (HD-tDCS, the present study directly investigated the causal role of the DLPFC in performing the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT and the Inter-Temporal Choice (ITC task. Three experiments were conducted: Exp. 1 (N = 41 to study the left DLPFC, Exp. 2 (N = 49 to study the right DLPFC, and Exp. 3 (N = 20, a subset of those in Exp. 1 to switch the experimental and control conditions. All participants were healthy male college students. For Exps. 1 and 2, participants were randomly assigned to either the HD- tDCS or the sham stimulation condition. For Exp. 3, participants were assigned to the condition they were not in during Exp. 1. Results showed that HD-tDCS over the left DLPFC increased IGT score, decreased the recency parameter in IGT, and lowered delay discounting rate (k in the ITC task. We discussed the potential roles of impulse control and time perception in mediating the effect of tDCS stimulation of left DLPFC on decision making. Our results have clinical implications for the treatment of disorders involving poor decision-making, such as addictions.

  14. Economic comparison of long-term nuclear fuel cycle management scenarios: The influence of the discount rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Le Dars, Aude; Loaec, Christine

    2007-01-01

    This article presents some main economic results obtained by the CEA in the DERECO project, which aimed to evaluate the global cost of contrasted and long-term nuclear fuel cycle scenarios. The scenarios have been studied for the period 2000-2150 in the French context. They all assume a sustainable nuclear development. These scenarios must not be considered as forecasts and do not reflect any industrial strategy. The article focuses on the comparison of five scenarios including the Generation IV fast reactors and their associated fuel cycles. Common trends as well as specific features can be identified. The article describes the scenarios with the replacement of the nuclear power and the associated fuel cycle. It details the main technical and economic assumptions common to all the scenarios, and exposes some main key results, concerning the flows and inventories as well as concerning economic evaluation. Economic results are given in a comparative manner due to the level of uncertainties at this time horizon. The key economic elements described in the article deal with the sensitivity of the results to the choice of the discount rate

  15. Essays on Discounting Behavior and Gambling Behavior

    OpenAIRE

    Jessen, Lasse J.

    2016-01-01

    This thesis consists of three independent chapters on the elicitation of individual discount rates and on the estimation of gambling prevalence in Denmark. The first chapter, “Discount Rate Sensitivity to Background Consumption and Consumption Smoothing,” studies the sensitivity of individual discount rates with respect to background consumption and consumption smoothing. I use simulated choice data from standard decision tasks in time preference experiments and show that indiv...

  16. Discounting in economics and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nordhaus, W.D.

    1997-01-01

    This paper examines the complexity of the issues surrounding the discounting issue as applied to the economics of climatic change. It is assumed that living standards will continue to improve, and that future generations will be more able to resource environmental improvements than our own. Measures to counter climate change now may have a deleterious effect on economic growth. Approaches to this situation include: lowering the discount rate; differential discounting; climate targeting; and emissions or concentrations limitations. Policies that focus directly on reducing pollutants are likely to have fewer deleterious economic effects than those that manipulate the discount rate on goods. 3 refs., 2 figs

  17. Essays on Discounting Behavior and Gambling Behavior

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jessen, Lasse J.

    This thesis consists of three independent chapters on the elicitation of individual discount rates and on the estimation of gambling prevalence in Denmark. The first chapter, “Discount Rate Sensitivity to Background Consumption and Consumption Smoothing,” studies the sensitivity of individual...

  18. Discounting medical malpractice claim reserves for self-insured hospitals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frese, Richard; Kitchen, Patrick

    2011-01-01

    The hospital CFO often works with the hospital's actuary and external auditor to calculate the reserves recorded in financial statements. Hospital management, usually the CFO, needs to decide the discount rate that is most appropriate. A formal policy addressing the rationale for discounting and the rationale for selecting the discount rate can be helpful to the CFO, actuary, and external auditor.

  19. Discounted Duration Calculus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ody, Heinrich; Fränzle, Martin; Hansen, Michael Reichhardt

    2016-01-01

    To formally reason about the temporal quality of systems discounting was introduced to CTL and LTL. However, these logic are discrete and they cannot express duration properties. In this work we introduce discounting for a variant of Duration Calculus. We prove decidability of model checking...... for a useful fragment of discounted Duration Calculus formulas on timed automata under mild assumptions. Further, we provide an extensive example to show the usefulness of the fragment....

  20. The effects of working memory load and attention refocusing on delay discounting rates in alcohol use disorder with comorbid antisocial personality disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunn, Rachel L; Gerst, Kyle R; Lake, Allison J; Finn, Peter R

    2018-02-01

    Executive working memory capacity (eWMC) is central to adaptive decision-making. Research has revealed reduced eWMC and higher rates of impulsive decision making in individuals with alcohol use disorders (AUDs: DSM-IV Alcohol Dependence of Alcohol Abuse) and antisocial psychopathology (AP). Recent work has shown that placing a load on working memory (WM) further increases impulsive decision making on the delay discounting (DD) task in those with AUDs and AP. The current study examined the effects of an attention refocusing manipulation to offset the effects of this WM-load on DD rates in control subjects, those with AUDs without AP, and AUDs with AP (AUD-AP). Results revealed that 1) the AUD-AP group had higher DD rates (i.e., more impulsive decision-making) than the AUD group, followed by controls, and 2) attention refocusing after a load is placed on WM was associated with lower DD rates compared to the load without refocusing in both AUD groups, but not controls. Results suggest that refocusing attention after a cognitive load may be an effective cognitive strategy for reducing the impulsivity-enhancing effects of cognitive load on decision making in individuals with AUDs and AP. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Discounting in Time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fahrenberg, Uli; Larsen, Kim Guldstrand

    2009-01-01

    This paper deals with the issue of discounting in weighted timed transition systems. Discounting provides a way to model optimal-cost problems for infinite runs and has applications in optimal scheduling and other areas. We show that when postulating a certain natural additivity property for the ......This paper deals with the issue of discounting in weighted timed transition systems. Discounting provides a way to model optimal-cost problems for infinite runs and has applications in optimal scheduling and other areas. We show that when postulating a certain natural additivity property...

  2. Discounting Behaviour and the Magnitude Effect

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Steffen; Harrison, Glenn W.; Lau, Morten Igel

    2013-01-01

    We evaluate the claim that individuals exhibit a magnitude effect in their discounting behaviour, where higher discount rates are inferred from choices made with lower principals, all else being equal. If the magnitude effect is quantitatively significant, it is not appropriate to use one discount...... rate that is independent of the scale of the project for cost–benefit analysis and capital budgeting. Using data from a field experiment in Denmark, we find statistically significant evidence of a magnitude effect that is much smaller than is claimed. This evidence surfaces only if one controls...

  3. Discounting in the economic evaluation of health care interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krahn, M; Gafni, A

    1993-05-01

    Do economic theories that underlie discounting have specific implications for program evaluation in health? In this study, both the contemporary practice and the theoretical foundations of discounting are reviewed. The social discount rate controversy is considered, and the two major concepts (i.e., opportunity cost and time preference) involved in the formulation of a social discount rate are outlined. Also described are the arguments for discounting proposed by thinkers in non-economic disciplines. Finally, the implications of choosing a discount rate for evaluation of individual health care programs are considered. It is argued that the conventional practice of discounting all health care programs at a rate of 5% may not consistently reflect societal or individual preference. Specific recommendations arising from this paper are: 1) given the considerable disagreement at the theoretical level as to the appropriate social discount rate, analysts should be specific about what theoretical approach underlies their choice of rate, especially when the analytic result is sensitive to the discount rate; 2) the discount rate chosen should be appropriate for the perspective of the analysis (social vs. individual vs. institutional, etc.); 3) when appropriate, measures should be taken to avoid double discounting, because some health related outcome measures already incorporate individuals' time preference; and 4) it is suggested that the political process may serve as the appropriate means of reflecting social values in the choice of a discount rate. In addition, the authors argue that a consensus conference approach, with political participation, offers a flexible, pragmatic, and explicit way of synthesizing the empirical, normative, and ethical considerations that underlie choice of a discount rate.

  4. Positive mood effects on delay discounting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirsh, Jacob B; Guindon, Alex; Morisano, Dominique; Peterson, Jordan B

    2010-10-01

    Delay discounting is the process by which the value of an expected reward decreases as the delay to obtaining that reward increases. Individuals with higher discounting rates tend to prefer smaller immediate rewards over larger delayed rewards. Previous research has indicated that personality can influence an individual's discounting rates, with higher levels of Extraversion predicting a preference for immediate gratification. The current study examined how this relationship would be influenced by situational mood inductions. While main effects were observed for both Extraversion and cognitive ability in the prediction of discounting rates, a significant interaction was also observed between Extraversion and positive affect. Extraverted individuals were more likely to prefer an immediate reward when first put in a positive mood. Extraverts thus appear particularly sensitive to impulsive, incentive-reward-driven behavior by temperament and by situational factors heightening positive affect. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved).

  5. Values in Time Discounting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heilmann, Conrad

    2017-10-01

    Controversies about time discounting loom large in decisions about climate change. Prominently, a particularly controversial debate about time discounting in climate change decision-making has been conducted within climate economics, between the authors of Stern et al. (Stern review on the economics of climate change, 2006) and their critics (most prominently Dasgupta in Comments on the Stern review's economics of climate change, 2006; Tol in Energy Environ 17(6):977-981, 2006; Weitzman in J Econ Lit XLV:703-724, 2007; Nordhaus in J Econ Lit XLV:686-702, 2007). The article examines the role of values in this debate. Firstly, it is shown that time discounting is a case in which values are key because it is at heart an ethical problem. Secondly, it is argued that time discounting in climate economics is a case of economists making frequent and routine references to ethical values and indeed conduct ethical debates with each other. Thirdly, it is argued that there is evidence for deep and pervasive entanglement between facts and values in the prevalent methodologies for time discounting. Finally, it is argued that this means that economists have given up the 'value-free ideal' concerning time discounting, and discussed how the current methodology of time discounting in economics can be improved.

  6. The economics of climate change and the theory of discounting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Philibert, C.

    1999-01-01

    This paper confronts the theory of discounting with climate change economics. Standard discounting would give long-term damages a very low present value. On the other hand, low discount rates would imply more sacrifices for present generations, although future generations may be richer. And using multiple rates would lead to economic inefficiencies. The paper first shows that arguments favouring a low or zero discount rate in general are weak, even from an ethical point of view. It goes on by considering different arguments in favour of discount rates decreasing over time, and by recalling the argument that non-reproducible environmental assets should be given a value growing over time. Through the example of climate change, it finally shows that the latter argument not only implies that the costs of damages associated to climate change should not be underestimated, but also reinforce the legitimacy of using decreasing discount rates. (author)

  7. Sleep deprivation alters effort discounting but not delay discounting of monetary rewards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Libedinsky, Camilo; Massar, Stijn A A; Ling, Aiqing; Chee, Weiyan; Huettel, Scott A; Chee, Michael W L

    2013-06-01

    To determine whether sleep deprivation would affect the discounting of delayed rewards, of rewards entailing the expense of effort, or both. We measured rates of two types of reward discounting under conditions of rested wakefulness (RW) and sleep deprivation (SD). Delay discounting was defined as the willingness to accept smaller monetary rewards sooner rather than larger monetary rewards later. Effort discounting was defined as the willingness to accept smaller rewards that require less effort to obtain (e.g., typing a small number of letter strings backward) over larger but more effortful rewards (e.g., typing more letter strings to receive the reward). The first two experiments used a crossover design in which one session was conducted after a normal night of sleep (RW), and the other after a night without sleep (SD). The first experiment evaluated only temporal discounting whereas the second evaluated temporal and effort discounting. In the second experiment, the discounting tasks were repeatedly administered prior to the state comparisons to minimize the effects of order and/or repeated testing. In a third experiment, participants were studied only once in a between-subject evaluation of discounting across states. The study took place in a research laboratory. Seventy-seven healthy young adult participants: 20 in Experiment 1, 27 in Experiment 2, and 30 in Experiment 3. N/A. Sleep deprivation elicited increased effort discounting but did not affect delay discounting. The dissociable effects of sleep deprivation on two forms of discounting behavior suggest that they may have differing underlying neural mechanisms.

  8. Survey of time preference, delay discounting models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John R. Doyle

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper surveys over twenty models of delay discounting (also known as temporal discounting, time preference, time discounting, that psychologists and economists have put forward to explain the way people actually trade off time and money. Using little more than the basic algebra of powers and logarithms, I show how the models are derived, what assumptions they are based upon, and how different models relate to each other. Rather than concentrate only on discount functions themselves, I show how discount functions may be manipulated to isolate rate parameters for each model. This approach, consistently applied, helps focus attention on the three main components in any discounting model: subjectively perceived money; subjectively perceived time; and how these elements are combined. We group models by the number of parameters that have to be estimated, which means our exposition follows a trajectory of increasing complexity to the models. However, as the story unfolds it becomes clear that most models fall into a smaller number of families. We also show how new models may be constructed by combining elements of different models. The surveyed models are: Exponential; Hyperbolic; Arithmetic; Hyperboloid (Green and Myerson, Rachlin; Loewenstein and Prelec Generalized Hyperboloid; quasi-Hyperbolic (also known as beta-delta discounting; Benhabib et al's fixed cost; Benhabib et al's Exponential / Hyperbolic / quasi-Hyperbolic; Read's discounting fractions; Roelofsma's exponential time; Scholten and Read's discounting-by-intervals (DBI; Ebert and Prelec's constant sensitivity (CS; Bleichrodt et al.'s constant absolute decreasing impatience (CADI; Bleichrodt et al.'s constant relative decreasing impatience (CRDI; Green, Myerson, and Macaux's hyperboloid over intervals models; Killeen's additive utility; size-sensitive additive utility; Yi, Landes, and Bickel's memory trace models; McClure et al.'s two exponentials; and Scholten and Read's trade

  9. Open access discount information

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Lauren Doyle

    Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change. Wiley offers OA in: Gold: ... International Journal of Health Services. Journal of ... Camridge University Press offers waivers and discounts based on: 1) Authors of ... based on the World Bank list.

  10. Discounting risks in the far future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lind, Niels

    2007-01-01

    Risks to life and health in the future must be discounted in quantitative risk analysis. Yet, risks in the distant future become trivialized if any reasonable constant interest rate is used. Our responsibility toward future generations rules out such drastic discounting. A solution to this problem is proposed here, resting on the ethical principle that our duty with respect to saving lives is the same to all generations, whether in the near or far future. It is shown that when a choice between prospects involving different risks has a financing horizon T, then ordinary principles of discounting apply up to this time T, while no further discounting is justifiable after T. The principle implies that risk events beyond the financing horizon should be valued as if they occurred at the financing horizon

  11. On the Dividend Strategies with Non-Exponential Discounting

    OpenAIRE

    Zhao, Qian; Wei, Jiaqin; Wang, Rongming

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we study the dividend strategies for a shareholder with non-constant discount rate in a diffusion risk model. We assume that the dividends can only be paid at a bounded rate and restrict ourselves to the Markov strategies. This is a time inconsistent control problem. The extended HJB equation is given and the verification theorem is proved for a general discount function. Considering the pseudo-exponential discount functions (Type I and Type II), we get the equilibrium dividend...

  12. The Vivid Present: Visualization Abilities Are Associated with Steep Discounting of Future Rewards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parthasarathi, Trishala; McConnell, Mairead H; Luery, Jeffrey; Kable, Joseph W

    2017-01-01

    Humans and other animals discount the value of future rewards, a phenomenon known as delay discounting. Individuals vary widely in the extent to which they discount future rewards, and these tendencies have been associated with important life outcomes. Recent studies have demonstrated that imagining the future reduces subsequent discounting behavior, but no research to date has examined whether a similar principle applies at the trait level, and whether training visualization changes discounting. The current study examined if individual differences in visualization abilities are linked to individual differences in discounting and whether practicing visualization can change discounting behaviors in a lasting way. Participants ( n = 48) completed the Vividness of Visual Imagery Questionnaire (VVIQ) and delay discounting task and then underwent a 4-week intervention consisting of visualization training (intervention) or relaxation training (control). Contrary to our hypotheses, participants who reported greater visualization abilities (lower scores) on the VVIQ were higher discounters. To further examine this relationship, an additional 106 participants completed the VVIQ and delay discounting task. In the total sample ( n = 154), there was a significant negative correlation between VVIQ scores and discount rates, showing that individuals who are better visualizers are also higher discounters. Consistent with this relationship but again to our surprise, visualization training tended, albeit weakly, to increase discount rates, and those whose VVIQ decreased the most were those whose discount rates increased the most. These results suggest a novel association between visualization abilities and delay discounting.

  13. Observed and Normative Discount Functions in Addiction and other Diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cruz Rambaud, Salvador; Muñoz Torrecillas, María J; Takahashi, Taiki

    2017-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to find a suitable discount function able to describe the progression of a certain addiction or disease under treatment as a discounting process. In effect, a certain indicator related to a disease decays over time in a manner which is mathematically similar to the way in which discounting has been modeled. We analyze the discount functions observed in experiments which study addictive and other problematic behaviors as well as some alternative hyperbola-like discount functions in order to fit the patience exhibited by the subject after receiving the treatment. Additionally, it has been experimentally found that people with addiction display high rates of discount (impatience) and preference reversals (dynamic inconsistency). This excessive discounting must be correctly modeled by a suitable discount function, otherwise, it can become a trans-disease process underlying addiction and other disorders. The (generalized) exponentiated hyperbolic discount function is proposed to describe the progression of a disease with respect to the treatment, since it maintains the property of inconsistency by exhibiting a decreasing discount rate after an initial period in which the opposite occurs.

  14. Accounting conventions for discounting in the optimisation of protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleishman, A.B.

    1983-01-01

    Some of the implications which arise from the use of accounting conventions in the cost benefit framework for optimization of radiation protection are briefly examined. Some accounting techniques which appear not to discount future detriment costs do so, in fact, at a hidden fixed rate; others give a free choice over whether to discount and at what rate. (U.K.)

  15. Explicit information reduces discounting behavior in monkeys

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John ePearson

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Animals are notoriously impulsive in common laboratory experiments, preferring smaller, sooner rewards to larger, delayed rewards even when this reduces average reward rates. By contrast, the same animals often engage in natural behaviors that require extreme patience, such as food caching, stalking prey, and traveling long distances to high quality food sites. One possible explanation for this discrepancy is that standard laboratory delay discounting tasks artificially inflate impulsivity by subverting animals’ common learning strategies. To test this idea, we examined choices made by rhesus macaques in two variants of a standard delay discounting task. In the conventional variant, post-reward delays were uncued and adjusted to render total trial length constant; in the second, all delays were cued explicitly. We found that measured discounting was significantly reduced in the cued task, with discount rates well below those reported in studies using the standard uncued design. When monkeys had complete information, their decisions were more consistent with a strategy of reward rate maximization. These results indicate that monkeys, and perhaps other animals, are more patient than is normally assumed, and that laboratory measures of delay discounting may overstate impulsivity.

  16. Value of the future: Discounting in random environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farmer, J. Doyne; Geanakoplos, John; Masoliver, Jaume; Montero, Miquel; Perelló, Josep

    2015-05-01

    We analyze how to value future costs and benefits when they must be discounted relative to the present. We introduce the subject for the nonspecialist and take into account the randomness of the economic evolution by studying the discount function of three widely used processes for the dynamics of interest rates: Ornstein-Uhlenbeck, Feller, and log-normal. Besides obtaining exact expressions for the discount function and simple asymptotic approximations, we show that historical average interest rates overestimate long-run discount rates and that this effect can be large. In other words, long-run discount rates should be substantially less than the average rate observed in the past, otherwise any cost-benefit calculation would be biased in favor of the present and against interventions that may protect the future.

  17. Discounting the future: influence of the economic model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, R R

    1996-06-01

    To consider the effect of the economic discount rate on health care policy and the rationale for discounting the collective future of society generally. A review of the concept of discounting the future vis à vis the present from the points of view of individuals (who pass on) and of societies (that continue) and reconsideration of the application of discounting to typical public health scenarios. A public health service, within a basically stable society, which can reasonably anticipate a nearly certain future. Discounting necessarily overvalues the "here and now" compared with the future. While applications of discount rates, typical of those employed in health economic studies in recent years, may seem rational in health care programmes directed at middle aged employed people, they do not for the young and the elderly, important recipients of health care. The consequences of discounting do not accord with the aims and objectives of public health. The "time preferences" of transient individuals within a stable society do not provide a rational basis for time preference of a stable society collectively. Discounting inevitably encourages "short termism" and hence biases public policy decision making. The neoclassical theory that gave rise to the concept of discounting requires revision.

  18. On the Relation between Discounting of Climate Change and Edgeworth-Pareto Substitutability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kögel, M.T.

    2009-01-01

    To justify substantial carbon emission reductions, recent literature on cost-benefit analysis of climate change suggests discounting environmental quality at a lower discount rate than the standard consumption discount rate. Recent literature also shows that a theoretical foundation for such a lower

  19. Concordance between monetary and sexual delay discounting in men who have sex with men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Jeb; Guest, Jodie L; Sullivan, Patrick S; Kramer, Michael R; Jenness, Samuel M; Sales, Jessica M

    2017-12-07

    Background: Delay discounting has been found to be associated with numerous health-related outcomes, including risky sexual behaviour. To date, it is unclear whether delay discounting measured in different domains is associated within individuals. The goal of this study was to assess the concordance of monetary and sexual delay discounting in men who have sex with men. Methods: Participants completed an online survey, including the Monetary Choice Questionnaire and the Sexual Discounting Task. Linear regression models were used to assess the association between monetary and sexual discount rates. Results: Sexual discount rates did not predict monetary discount rates. There was a substantial amount of clustering of sexual discount rates, requiring sexual discounting data to be categorised. Conclusions: Monetary and sexual delay discounting are distinct processes that are not necessarily associated within individuals, and monetary delay discounting is not an appropriate proxy measure for sexual impulsivity. Data from the Sexual Discounting Task are typically rank-transformed for analysis. These data suggest that this might be an invalid method of analysis. Future studies should investigate the distribution of their data to determine if it is appropriate to analyse sexual discounting data as a continuous measure.

  20. Shopping in discount stores

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zielke, Stephan

    2014-01-01

    quarters of intentions to shop in discount stores. Value perception has the strongest total effect, which is partly mediated by enjoyment, shame and guilt. Attributions influence the shopping intention indirectly via value perception and emotions. The inferior quality attribution has the strongest total......This paper analyzes the impact of price-related attributions, emotions and value perception on the intention to shop at grocery discounters in an integrated framework. Moderating effects of price consciousness are also analyzed. The results show that the proposed model explains almost three...... effect, followed by the efficiency of the business model attribution. The unfairness to stakeholders and the tricks in price communication attribution mostly influence the shopping intention for less price-conscious customers....

  1. Discounting in the evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of a vaccination programme: A critical review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jit, Mark; Mibei, Walter

    2015-07-31

    Discounting future costs and health benefits usually has a large effect on results of cost-effectiveness evaluations of vaccination because of delays between the initial expenditure in the programme and the health benefits from averting disease. Most guidelines currently recommend discounting both costs and health effects at a positive, constant, common rate back to a common point in time. A review of 84 published economic evaluations of vaccines found that most of them apply these recommendations. However, both technical and normative arguments have been presented for discounting health at a different rate to consumption (differential discounting), discounting at a rate that changes over time (non-constant discounting), discounting intra-generational and inter-generational effects at a different rate (two-stage discounting), and discounting the health gains from an intervention to a different discount year from the time of intervention (delayed discounting). These considerations are particularly acute for vaccines, because their effects can occur in a different generation from the one paying for them, and because the time of vaccination, of infection aversion, and of disease aversion usually differ. Using differential, two-stage or delayed discounting in model-based cost-effectiveness evaluations of vaccination raises technical challenges, but mechanisms have been proposed to overcome them. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  2. Network Effects Versus Strategic Discounting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zucchini, Leon; Claussen, Jörg; Trüg, Moritiz

    . Alternatively, research on strategic discounting suggests small operators use on-net discounts to advertise with low on-net prices. We test the relative strength of these effects using data on tariff setting in German mobile telecommunications between 2001 and 2009. We find that large operators are more likely......Mobile telecommunication operators routinely charge subscribers lower prices for calls on their own network than for calls to other networks (on-net discounts). Studies on tariff-mediated network effects suggest this is due to large operators using on-net discounts to damage smaller rivals...

  3. The Contrast Effect in Temporal and Probabilistic Discounting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Cheng; He, Guibing

    2016-01-01

    In this information age, messages related to time, and uncertainty surround us. At the same time, our daily lives are filled with decisions accompanied by temporal delay or uncertainty. Will such information influence our temporal and probabilistic discounting? The authors address this question from the perspectives of decision by sampling (DbS) theory and psychological distance theory. Studies 1 and 2 investigated the effect of contextual messages on temporal discounting and probabilistic discounting, respectively. The results indicated that participants who memorized messages about long-term and low-probability events rated delay or uncertainty as mentally closer and exhibited a less degree of value discounting than those who memorized messages regarding short-term and high-probability events. In addition, a sense of distance from present or reality mediated the effect of contextual messages on value discounting. The implications of the current findings for theory and applications are discussed. PMID:27014122

  4. Delay discounting as a function of intrinsic/extrinsic religiousness, religious fundamentalism, and regular church attendance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weatherly, Jeffrey N; Plumm, Karyn M

    2012-01-01

    Delay discounting occurs when the subjective value of an outcome decreases because its delivery is delayed. Previous research has suggested that the rate at which some, but not all, outcomes are discounted varies as a function of regular church attendance. In the present study, 509 participants completed measures of intrinsic religiousness, extrinsic religiousness, religious fundamentalism, and whether they regularly attended church services. They then completed a delay-discounting task involving five outcomes. Although religiousness was not a significant predictor of discounting for all outcomes, participants scoring high in intrinsic religiousness tended to display less delay discounting than participants scoring low. Likewise, participants scoring high in religious fundamentalism tended to display more delay discounting than participants scoring low. These results partially replicate previous ones in showing that the process of discounting may vary as a function of religiousness. The results also provide some direction for those interested in altering how individuals discount.

  5. Discounting of quantity surveying fees in South Africa

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    by clients have forced Quantity Surveying firms into competition with ... Furthermore, 43% of consulting engineering firms were discounting their fees at a rate of .... Quantity. Surveying services are also offered in the fields of dispute resolution,.

  6. Climate policy under sustainable discounted utilitarianism

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dietz, Simon [London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) (United Kingdom); Asheim, Geir B. [Oslo Univ. (Norway). Dept. of Economics

    2011-08-15

    Empirical evaluation of policies to mitigate climate change has been largely confined to the application of discounted utilitarianism (DU). DU is controversial, both due to the conditions through which it is justified and due to its consequences for climate policies, where the discounting of future utility gains from present abatement efforts makes it harder for such measures to justify their present costs. In this paper, we propose sustainable discounted utilitarianism (SDU) as an alternative principle for evaluation of climate policy. Unlike undiscounted utilitarianism, which always assigns zero relative weight to present utility, SDU is an axiomatically based criterion, which departs from DU by assigning zero weight to present utility if and only if the present is better off than the future. Using the DICE integrated assessment model to run risk analysis, we show that it is possible for the future to be worse off than the present along a 'business as usual' development path. Consequently SDU and DU differ, and willingness to pay for emissions reductions is (sometimes significantly) higher under SDU than under DU. Under SDU, stringent schedules of emissions reductions increase social welfare, even for a relatively high utility discount rate. (orig.)

  7. 5 CFR 1315.7 - Discounts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... acceptance has occurred. Agencies are encouraged to include discount terms in a contract to give agencies... web site at http://www.fms.treas.gov/prompt/index.html. (b) Discounts taken after the discount date...

  8. Heaven can wait. How religion modulates temporal discounting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paglieri, Fabio; Borghi, Anna M; Colzato, Lorenza S; Hommel, Bernhard; Scorolli, Claudia

    2013-11-01

    Evidence suggests that religious systems have specific effects on attentional and action control processes. The present study investigated whether religions also modulate choices that involve higher-order knowledge and the delay of gratification in particular. We tested Dutch Calvinists, Italian Catholics, and Atheists from both countries/cultures using an intertemporal choice task where participants could choose between a small immediate and a larger delayed monetary reward. Based on the Calvinist theory of predestination and the Catholic concept of a cycle of sin-confession-expiation, we predicted a reduced delay tolerance, i.e., higher discount rate, for Italian Catholics than for Dutch Calvinists, and intermediate rates for the two atheist groups. Analyses of discount rates support our hypotheses. We also found a magnitude effect on temporal discounting and faster responses for large than for small rewards across religions and countries/cultures. We conclude that temporal discounting is specifically modulated by religious upbringing rather than by generic cultural differences.

  9. Delayed discounting of pain with and without monetary reward

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kicman Paweł

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available We investigated the effect of monetary rewards on the rate of pain discounting. Our aim, also, was to understand the effect of previous painful dental experiences on the rate of discounting pain. Two groups (N = 148 completed a discounting task. In the first group, delayed pain was weaker than immediate pain, and in the second group delayed pain was stronger than immediate pain. Two conditions were studied: pain was either accompanied by a monetary reward or not. We found that people preferred immediate pain when it was weaker than delayed pain; however, when delayed pain was stronger than immediate pain, there was no clear preference. In both groups the preference for immediate pain was higher when pain was accompanied by a monetary reward. Previous painful experiences were not related to the rate of discounting. It was concluded that the preference for delayed pain depends on the intensity of pain, and it can be modified by rewards that accompany pain.

  10. Discounted cost model for condition-based maintenance optimization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weide, J.A.M. van der; Pandey, M.D.; Noortwijk, J.M. van

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents methods to evaluate the reliability and optimize the maintenance of engineering systems that are damaged by shocks or transients arriving randomly in time and overall degradation is modeled as a cumulative stochastic point process. The paper presents a conceptually clear and comprehensive derivation of formulas for computing the discounted cost associated with a maintenance policy combining both condition-based and age-based criteria for preventive maintenance. The proposed discounted cost model provides a more realistic basis for optimizing the maintenance policies than those based on the asymptotic, non-discounted cost rate criterion.

  11. Steeper discounting of delayed rewards in schizophrenia but not first-degree relatives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Linda Q; Lee, Sangil; Katchmar, Natalie; Satterthwaite, Theodore D; Kable, Joseph W; Wolf, Daniel H

    2017-06-01

    Excessive discounting of future rewards has been related to a variety of risky behaviors and adverse clinical conditions. Prior work examining delay discounting in schizophrenia suggests an elevated discount rate. However, it remains uncertain whether this reflects the disease process itself or an underlying genetic vulnerability, whether it is selective for delay discounting or reflects pervasive changes in decision-making, and whether it is driven by specific clinical dimensions such as cognitive impairment. Here we investigated delay discounting, as well as loss aversion and risk aversion, in three groups: schizophrenia (SZ), unaffected first-degree family members (FM), and controls without a family history of psychosis (NC). SZ had elevated discounting, without changes in loss aversion or risk aversion. Contrary to expectations, the FM group did not show an intermediate phenotype in discounting. Higher discount rates correlated with lower cognitive performance on verbal reasoning, but this did not explain elevated discount rates in SZ. Group differences were driven primarily by the non-smoking majority of the sample. This study provides further evidence for elevated discounting in schizophrenia, and demonstrates that steeper discounting is not necessarily associated with familial risk, cannot be wholly accounted for by cognitive deficits, and is not attributable to smoking-related impulsivity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Time discounting and protected-area priorities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armsworth, Paul R

    2018-05-08

    Should conservation organizations focus on protecting habitats that are at imminent risk of being converted but are expensive or more remote areas that are less immediately threatened but where a large amount of land can be set aside? Variants of this trade-off commonly arise in spatial planning. We examined this trade-off using models of land use change near a deforestation frontier. The optimal choice of where to protect was determined by how decisions taken today accounted for ecological benefits and economic costs of conservation actions that would occur sometime in the future. We used an ecological and economic discount rate to weight these benefits and costs. A large economic discount rate favored protecting more remote areas, whereas a large, positive ecological discount rate favored protecting habitat near the current deforestation frontier. We also showed how the decision over where to protect was impacted by the influence that economic factors had in determining landowners' decisions, the rate of technological change and ecological heterogeneity of the landscape. How benefits and costs through time are accounted for warrants careful consideration when specifying conservation objectives. It may provide a niche axis along which conservation organizations differentiate themselves when competing for donor funding or other support. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  13. A Job with a Future? Delay Discounting, Magnitude Effects, and Domain Independence of Utility for Career Decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoenfelder, Thomas E.; Hantula, Donald A.

    2003-01-01

    Seniors (n=20) assessed two job offers with differences in domain (salary/tasks), delay (career-long earnings), and magnitude (initial salary offer). Contrary to discounted utility theory, choices reflected nonconstant discount rates for future salary/tasks (delay effect), lower discount rates for salary/preferred tasks (magnitude effect), and a…

  14. Delay Discounting of Losses in Alcohol Use Disorders and Antisocial Psychopathology: Effects of a Working Memory Load.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerst, Kyle R; Gunn, Rachel L; Finn, Peter R

    2017-10-01

    Alcohol use disorders (AUDs) are associated with increased discounting of delayed rewards and reduced executive working memory (eWM) capacity. This association is amplified when comorbid with antisocial psychopathology (AP). Furthermore, recent studies suggest that reduced WM capacity is associated with disinhibited decisions reflected by increased impulsive decision making on the delay discounting of rewards task. While discounting of delayed rewards is well studied, the discounting of delayed losses has received significantly less experimental attention. The current study investigated (i) the rate of discounting of delayed losses in individuals with AUD only (n = 61), AUD with comorbid AP (n = 79) and healthy controls (n = 64); (ii) the relationship between eWM capacity and discounting of delayed losses; and (iii) the effect of a WM load on discounting of delayed losses. Discounting performance was assessed using a computerized discounting of delayed losses task. Results showed that the AUD-only and AUD-AP groups had higher rates of discounting of delayed losses and lower eWM capacity compared to the control groups. Lower individual eWM capacity was associated with increased discounting of delayed losses. However, WM load did not increase discounting rates overall. These results support the hypothesis that greater discounting of delayed losses is associated with AUD and comorbid AP problems and lower individual eWM capacity. Copyright © 2017 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

  15. Synchronisation of customers’ orders using discounts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buhayenko, Viktoryia; van Eikenhorst, Erik

    2016-01-01

    Conventionally, price discounts are offered to enhance demand, for example to get rid of excess inventory. This paper, however, studies the possibility of using discounts in situations when total demand is non-sensitive to changes in prices. By introducing a discount in some periods, the supplier...... the supplier's profit a modification of the heuristic which differs in the discount approximation used is developed....

  16. Assessing delay discounting in mice

    OpenAIRE

    Mitchell, Suzanne H.

    2014-01-01

    Delay discounting (also intertemporal choice or impulsive choice) is the process by which delayed outcomes, such as delayed food delivery, are valued less than the same outcomes delivered immediately or with a shorter delay. This process is of interest because many psychopathologies, including substance dependence, pathological gambling, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder and conduct disorder, are characterized by heightened levels of delay discounting. Some of these disorders are herit...

  17. Is there time discounting for risk premium?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shavit, Tal; Rosenboim, Mosi

    2015-03-01

    Individuals with a higher subjective discount rate concentrate more on the present and delay is more significant for them. However, when a risky asset is delayed, not only is the outcome delayed but also the risk. In this paper, we suggest a new, two-stage experimental method with real monetary incentives that allows us to distinguish between the effect of the risk and the effect of the time when pricing a risky asset. We show that when individuals have greater preference for the present, their risk aversion for a risky asset realized in the future decreases. We argue that the effect of the risk for future asset is lower for individuals with higher time preference because they discount not only the outcome but also the risks. © Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

  18. INFLUENCE OF DISCOUNT PRICE ANNOUNCEMENTS ON CONSUMER’S BEHAVIOR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giuliana Isabella

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The theoretical framework that underpins this research study is based on the Prospect Theory formulated by Kahneman and Tversky, and Thaler´s Mental Accounting Theory. The research aims to evaluate the consumers’ behavior when different patterns of discount are offered (in percentage and absolute value and for larger and smaller discounts. Two experiments were conducted to explore these patterns of behavior and the results that were obtained supported the view that the framing effect was a common occurrence. The patterns of choice of individuals in a sample were found to be different due to changes in the ways discounts were offered. This can be explained by the various ways of presenting discount rates that had an impact on the influence of purchase intentions, recommendations and quality perception.

  19. Delay and probability discounting of sexual and monetary outcomes in individuals with cocaine use disorders and matched controls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Matthew W; Johnson, Patrick S; Herrmann, Evan S; Sweeney, Mary M

    2015-01-01

    Individuals with cocaine use disorders are disproportionately affected by HIV/AIDS, partly due to higher rates of unprotected sex. Recent research suggests delay discounting of condom use is a factor in sexual HIV risk. Delay discounting is a behavioral economic concept describing how delaying an event reduces that event's value or impact on behavior. Probability discounting is a related concept describing how the uncertainty of an event decreases its impact on behavior. Individuals with cocaine use disorders (n = 23) and matched non-cocaine-using controls (n = 24) were compared in decision-making tasks involving hypothetical outcomes: delay discounting of condom-protected sex (Sexual Delay Discounting Task), delay discounting of money, the effect of sexually transmitted infection (STI) risk on likelihood of condom use (Sexual Probability Discounting Task), and probability discounting of money. The Cocaine group discounted delayed condom-protected sex (i.e., were more likely to have unprotected sex vs. wait for a condom) significantly more than controls in two of four Sexual Delay Discounting Task partner conditions. The Cocaine group also discounted delayed money (i.e., preferred smaller immediate amounts over larger delayed amounts) significantly more than controls. In the Sexual Probability Discounting Task, both groups showed sensitivity to STI risk, however the groups did not differ. The Cocaine group did not consistently discount probabilistic money more or less than controls. Steeper discounting of delayed, but not probabilistic, sexual outcomes may contribute to greater rates of sexual HIV risk among individuals with cocaine use disorders. Probability discounting of sexual outcomes may contribute to risk of unprotected sex in both groups. Correlations showed sexual and monetary results were unrelated, for both delay and probability discounting. The results highlight the importance of studying specific behavioral processes (e.g., delay and probability

  20. Delay and probability discounting of sexual and monetary outcomes in individuals with cocaine use disorders and matched controls.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew W Johnson

    Full Text Available Individuals with cocaine use disorders are disproportionately affected by HIV/AIDS, partly due to higher rates of unprotected sex. Recent research suggests delay discounting of condom use is a factor in sexual HIV risk. Delay discounting is a behavioral economic concept describing how delaying an event reduces that event's value or impact on behavior. Probability discounting is a related concept describing how the uncertainty of an event decreases its impact on behavior. Individuals with cocaine use disorders (n = 23 and matched non-cocaine-using controls (n = 24 were compared in decision-making tasks involving hypothetical outcomes: delay discounting of condom-protected sex (Sexual Delay Discounting Task, delay discounting of money, the effect of sexually transmitted infection (STI risk on likelihood of condom use (Sexual Probability Discounting Task, and probability discounting of money. The Cocaine group discounted delayed condom-protected sex (i.e., were more likely to have unprotected sex vs. wait for a condom significantly more than controls in two of four Sexual Delay Discounting Task partner conditions. The Cocaine group also discounted delayed money (i.e., preferred smaller immediate amounts over larger delayed amounts significantly more than controls. In the Sexual Probability Discounting Task, both groups showed sensitivity to STI risk, however the groups did not differ. The Cocaine group did not consistently discount probabilistic money more or less than controls. Steeper discounting of delayed, but not probabilistic, sexual outcomes may contribute to greater rates of sexual HIV risk among individuals with cocaine use disorders. Probability discounting of sexual outcomes may contribute to risk of unprotected sex in both groups. Correlations showed sexual and monetary results were unrelated, for both delay and probability discounting. The results highlight the importance of studying specific behavioral processes (e.g., delay and

  1. Testing the Reliability of Delay Discounting of Ten Commodities Using the Fill-in-the-Blank Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weatherly, Jeffrey N.; Derenne, Adam; Terrell, Heather K.

    2011-01-01

    Several measures of delay discounting have been shown to be reliable over periods of up to 3 months. In the present study, 115 participants completed a fill-in-the-blank (FITB) delay-discounting task on sets of 5 different commodities, 12 weeks apart. Results showed that discounting rates were not well described by a hyperbolic function but were…

  2. Changing delay discounting in the light of the competing neurobehavioral decision systems theory: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koffarnus, Mikhail N; Jarmolowicz, David P; Mueller, E Terry; Bickel, Warren K

    2013-01-01

    Excessively devaluing delayed reinforcers co-occurs with a wide variety of clinical conditions such as drug dependence, obesity, and excessive gambling. If excessive delay discounting is a trans-disease process that underlies the choice behavior leading to these and other negative health conditions, efforts to change an individual's discount rate are arguably important. Although discount rate is often regarded as a relatively stable trait, descriptions of interventions and environmental manipulations that successfully alter discount rate have begun to appear in the literature. In this review, we compare published examples of procedures that change discount rate and classify them into categories of procedures, including therapeutic interventions, direct manipulation of the executive decision-making system, framing effects, physiological state effects, and acute drug effects. These changes in discount rate are interpreted from the perspective of the competing neurobehavioral decision systems theory, which describes a combination of neurological and behavioral processes that account for delay discounting. We also suggest future directions that researchers could take to identify the mechanistic processes that allow for changes in discount rate and to test whether the competing neurobehavioral decision systems view of delay discounting is correct. © Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

  3. The neural basis of cultural differences in delay discounting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Bokyung; Sung, Young Shin; McClure, Samuel M

    2012-03-05

    People generally prefer to receive rewarding outcomes sooner rather than later. Such preferences result from delay discounting, or the process by which outcomes are devalued for the expected delay until their receipt. We investigated cultural differences in delay discounting by contrasting behaviour and brain activity in separate cohorts of Western (American) and Eastern (Korean) subjects. Consistent with previous reports, we find a dramatic difference in discounting behaviour, with Americans displaying much greater present bias and elevated discount rates. Recent neuroimaging findings suggest that differences in discounting may arise from differential involvement of either brain reward areas or regions in the prefrontal and parietal cortices associated with cognitive control. We find that the ventral striatum is more greatly recruited in Americans relative to Koreans when discounting future rewards, but there is no difference in prefrontal or parietal activity. This suggests that a cultural difference in emotional responsivity underlies the observed behavioural effect. We discuss the implications of this research for strategic interrelations between Easterners and Westerners.

  4. Does temporal discounting explain unhealthy behavior? A systematic review and reinforcement learning perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Story, Giles W.; Vlaev, Ivo; Seymour, Ben; Darzi, Ara; Dolan, Raymond J.

    2014-01-01

    The tendency to make unhealthy choices is hypothesized to be related to an individual's temporal discount rate, the theoretical rate at which they devalue delayed rewards. Furthermore, a particular form of temporal discounting, hyperbolic discounting, has been proposed to explain why unhealthy behavior can occur despite healthy intentions. We examine these two hypotheses in turn. We first systematically review studies which investigate whether discount rates can predict unhealthy behavior. These studies reveal that high discount rates for money (and in some instances food or drug rewards) are associated with several unhealthy behaviors and markers of health status, establishing discounting as a promising predictive measure. We secondly examine whether intention-incongruent unhealthy actions are consistent with hyperbolic discounting. We conclude that intention-incongruent actions are often triggered by environmental cues or changes in motivational state, whose effects are not parameterized by hyperbolic discounting. We propose a framework for understanding these state-based effects in terms of the interplay of two distinct reinforcement learning mechanisms: a “model-based” (or goal-directed) system and a “model-free” (or habitual) system. Under this framework, while discounting of delayed health may contribute to the initiation of unhealthy behavior, with repetition, many unhealthy behaviors become habitual; if health goals then change, habitual behavior can still arise in response to environmental cues. We propose that the burgeoning development of computational models of these processes will permit further identification of health decision-making phenotypes. PMID:24659960

  5. OPPORTUNITY COSTS OF REWARD DELAYS AND THE DISCOUNTING OF HYPOTHETICAL MONEY AND CIGARETTES

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Patrick S.; Herrmann, Evan S.; Johnson, Matthew W.

    2015-01-01

    Humans are reported to discount delayed rewards at lower rates than nonhumans. However, nonhumans are studied in tasks that restrict reinforcement during delays, whereas humans are typically studied in tasks that do not restrict reinforcement during delays. In nonhuman tasks, the opportunity cost of restricted reinforcement during delays may increase delay discounting rates. The present within-subjects study used online crowdsourcing (Amazon Mechanical Turk, or MTurk) to assess the discounting of hypothetical delayed money (and cigarettes in smokers) under four hypothetical framing conditions differing in the availability of reinforcement during delays. At one extreme, participants were free to leave their computer without returning, and engage in any behavior during reward delays (modeling typical human tasks). At the opposite extreme, participants were required to stay at their computer and engage in little other behavior during reward delays (modeling typical nonhuman tasks). Discounting rates increased as an orderly function of opportunity cost. Results also indicated predominantly hyperbolic discounting, the “magnitude effect,” steeper discounting of cigarettes than money, and positive correlations between discounting rates of these commodities. This is the first study to test the effects of opportunity costs on discounting, and suggests that procedural differences may partially account for observed species differences in discounting. PMID:25388973

  6. Cocaine dependent individuals discount future rewards more than future losses for both cocaine and monetary outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Matthew W; Bruner, Natalie R; Johnson, Patrick S

    2015-01-01

    Cocaine dependence and other forms of drug dependence are associated with steeper devaluation of future outcomes (delay discounting). Although studies in this domain have typically assessed choices between monetary gains (e.g., receive less money now versus receive more money after a delay), delay discounting is also applicable to decisions involving losses (e.g., small loss now versus larger delayed loss), with gains typically discounted more than losses (the "sign effect"). It is also known that drugs are discounted more than equivalently valued money. In the context of drug dependence, however, relatively little is known about the discounting of delayed monetary and drug losses and the presence of the sign effect. In this within-subject, laboratory study, delay discounting for gains and losses was assessed for cocaine and money outcomes in cocaine-dependent individuals (n=89). Both cocaine and monetary gains were discounted at significantly greater rates than cocaine and monetary losses, respectively (i.e., the sign effect). Cocaine gains were discounted significantly more than monetary gains, but cocaine and monetary losses were discounted similarly. Results suggest that cocaine is discounted by cocaine-dependent individuals in a systematic manner similar to other rewards. Because the sign effect was shown for both cocaine and money, delayed aversive outcomes may generally have greater impact than delayed rewards in shaping present behavior in this population. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  7. Discounting and the social cost of carbon: A closer look at uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Guo, J.K.; Hepburn, C.; Tol, R.S.J.; Anthoff, D.

    2006-01-01

    Recently, in the economics literature, several papers have put forward arguments for using a declining discount rate in social-cost benefit analysis. This paper examines the impact of employing a declining discount rate on the social cost of carbon-the marginal social damage from a ton of emitted

  8. Decision processes in choice overload: a product of delay and probability discounting?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, Brent A; Reed, Derek D

    2013-07-01

    Recent research in the behavioral decision making literature has demonstrated that humans hyperbolically discount the subjective value of options as the number of options increases (Reed et al., 2012). These findings provide a cognitive-behavioral synthesis of the "choice overload" phenomenon, also known as the "paradox of choice." Specifically, these findings suggest that temporal discounting may serve as the underlying process contributing to this effect. As an extension, this study examined the effects of reward magnitude sizes had on rates temporal and options discounting. This manipulation was conducted to determine what role temporal discounting plays in discounting of options. The present results suggest that temporal discounting may not be the only process contributing to the choice overload effect. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Discounting with Imperfect Collateral

    OpenAIRE

    Lou, Wujiang

    2017-01-01

    Cash collateral is perfect in that it provides simultaneous counterparty credit risk protection and derivatives funding. Securities are imperfect collateral, because of collateral segregation or differences in CSA haircuts and repo haircuts. Moreover, the collateral rate term structure is not observable in the repo market, for derivatives netting sets are perpetual while repo tenors are typically in months. This article synthesizes these effects into a derivative financing rate that replaces ...

  10. Time-discounting and tobacco smoking: a systematic review and network analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlow, Pepita; McKee, Martin; Reeves, Aaron; Galea, Gauden; Stuckler, David

    2017-06-01

    Tobacco smoking harms health, so why do people smoke and fail to quit? An explanation originating in behavioural economics suggests a role for time-discounting, which describes how the value of a reward, such as better health, decreases with delay to its receipt. A large number of studies test the relationship of time-discounting with tobacco outcomes but the temporal pattern of this relationship and its variation according to measurement methods remain unclear. We review the association between time-discounting and smoking across (i) the life course, from initiation to cessation, and (ii) diverse discount measures. We identified 69 relevant studies in Web of Science and PubMed. We synthesized findings across methodologies and evaluated discount measures, study quality and cross-disciplinary fertilization. In 44 out of 54 studies, smokers more greatly discounted the future than non-smokers and, in longitudinal studies, higher discounting predicted future smoking. Smokers with lower time-discount rates achieved higher quit rates. Findings were consistent across studies measuring discount rates using hypothetical monetary or cigarette reward scenarios. The methodological quality of the majority of studies was rated as 'moderate' and co-citation analysis revealed an isolation of economics journals and a dearth of studies in public health. There is moderate yet consistent evidence that high time-discounting is a risk factor for smoking and unsuccessful cessation. Policy scenarios assuming a flat rate of population discounting may inadequately capture smokers' perceptions of costs and benefits. © The Author 2016; Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association

  11. Delay discounting of food by rhesus monkeys: Cocaine and food choice in isomorphic and allomorphic situations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huskinson, Sally L; Woolverton, William L; Green, Leonard; Myerson, Joel; Freeman, Kevin B

    2015-06-01

    Research on delay discounting has focused largely on nondrug reinforcers in an isomorphic context in which choice is between alternatives that involve the same type of reinforcer. Less often, delay discounting has been studied with drug reinforcers in a more ecologically valid allomorphic context where choice is between alternatives involving different types of reinforcers. The present experiment is the first to examine discounting of drug and nondrug reinforcers in both isomorphic and allomorphic situations using a theoretical model (i.e., the hyperbolic discounting function) that allows for comparisons of discounting rates between reinforcer types and amounts. The goal of the current experiment was to examine discounting of a delayed, nondrug reinforcer (food) by male rhesus monkeys when the immediate alternative was either food (isomorphic situation) or cocaine (allomorphic situation). In addition, we sought to determine whether there was a magnitude effect with delayed food in the allomorphic situation. Choice of immediate food and immediate cocaine increased with amount and dose, respectively. Choice functions for immediate food and cocaine generally shifted leftward as delay increased. Compared to isomorphic situations in which food was the immediate alternative, delayed food was discounted more steeply in allomorphic situations where cocaine was the immediate alternative. Notably, discounting was not affected by the magnitude of the delayed reinforcer. These data indicate that how steeply a delayed nondrug reinforcer is discounted may depend more on the qualitative characteristics of the immediate reinforcer and less on the magnitude of the delayed one. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  12. Examining weight concern and delay discounting in adolescent females.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thamotharan, Sneha; Lange, Krista; Ramos, Ashley; Fields, Sherecce

    2016-04-01

    Pediatric obesity is a growing public health concern that contributes to high rates of negative long-term physical and mental health outcomes. Research focused on identifying risk for pediatric obesity has linked delay discounting, or an inclination for immediate rewards, as well as weight concern to individuals with greater Body Mass Index (BMI). The current study seeks to fill a void in the literature by examining how these two variables interact to promote higher BMI in female adolescents. Adolescent (n=60) females between the ages of 13-19years (mage=17.45, SD=1.74) of age completed the Eating Disorder Examination Questionnaire (EDE-Q) and the Delay Discounting Questionnaire. A mediation model examined whether delay discounting accounted for the relationship between weight concern and BMI. Results indicate that in the current study weight concern was negatively related to delay discounting and delay discounting was negatively related to BMI. The overall model revealed that a partial mediation occurred [b=1.28, t(60)=4.92, pconcerns contribute to greater BMI. Nevertheless, the results indicate that prevention and interventions should identify females with high levels of both weight concern and impulsivity as an increased risk for experiencing pediatric obesity and long-term negative health outcomes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Secretary Problems: Weights and Discounts

    OpenAIRE

    Babaioff, M.; Dinitz, M.; Gupta, A.; Immorlica, Nicole Simone; Talwar, K.

    2009-01-01

    textabstractThe classical secretary problem studies the problem of selecting online an element (a “secretary”) with maximum value in a randomly ordered sequence. The difficulty lies in the fact that an element must be either selected or discarded upon its arrival, and this decision is irrevocable. Constant-competitive algorithms are known for the classical secretary problems and several variants. We study the following two extensions of the secretary problem: In the discounted secretary probl...

  14. Dynamical instabilities in a simple minority game with discounting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Challet, D; De Martino, A; Marsili, M

    2008-01-01

    We explore the effect of discounting and experimentation in a simple model of interacting adaptive agents. Agents belong to either of two types and each has to decide whether to participate in a game or not, the game being profitable when there is an excess of players of the other type. We find the emergence of large fluctuations as a result of the onset of a dynamical instability which may arise discontinuously (increasing the discount factor) or continuously (decreasing the experimentation rate). The phase diagram is characterized in detail and noise amplification close to a bifurcation point is identified as the physical mechanism behind the instability. (letter)

  15. Temporal discounting across three psychiatric disorders: Anorexia nervosa, obsessive compulsive disorder, and social anxiety disorder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinglass, Joanna E.; Lempert, Karolina M.; Choo, Tse-Hwei; Kimeldorf, Marcia B.; Wall, Melanie; Walsh, B. Timothy; Fyer, Abby J.; Schneier, Franklin R.; Simpson, H. Blair

    2018-01-01

    Background Temporal discounting refers to the tendency for rewards to lose value as the expected delay to receipt increases. Individuals with anorexia nervosa (AN) have been found to show reduced temporal discounting rates, indicating a greater preference for delayed rewards compared to healthy peers. Obsessive–compulsive disorder (OCD) and social anxiety disorder (SAD) commonly co-occur with AN, and anxiety has been related to development and prognosis of AN. We examined whether reduced temporal discounting is present across these potentially related disorders, and explored the relationship between temporal discounting and anxiety trans-diagnostically. Methods One hundred ninety six individuals (75 healthy controls (HC); 50 OCD; 27 AN; 44 SAD) completed two temporal discounting tasks in which they chose between smaller-sooner and larger-later monetary rewards. Two measures of discounting—discount rate and discount factor—were compared between diagnostic groups, and associations with anxious traits were examined. Results Individuals with AN showed decreased temporal discounting compared to HC. OCD and SAD groups did not differ significantly from HC. Across the sample, anxiety was associated with decreased discounting; more anxious individuals showed a greater preference for delayed reward. Conclusions We replicated the findings that individuals with AN show an increased preference for delayed reward relative to HC and that individuals with OCD do not differ from HC. We also showed that individuals with SAD do not differ from HC in discounting. Across this large sample, two measures of anxious temperament were associated with temporal discounting. These data raise new questions about the relationship between this dimensional trait and psychopathology. PMID:28009473

  16. Maximizing the model for Discounted Stream of Utility from ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Osagiede et al. (2009) considered an analytic model for maximizing discounted stream of utility from consumption when the rate of production is linear. A solution was provided to a level where methods of solving order differential equations will be applied, but they left off there, as a result of the mathematical complexity ...

  17. Neural congruence between intertemporal and interpersonal self-control: Evidence from delay and social discounting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Paul F; Yi, Richard; Spreng, R Nathan; Diana, Rachel A

    2017-11-15

    Behavioral studies using delay and social discounting as indices of self-control and altruism, respectively, have revealed functional similarities between farsighted and social decisions. However, neural evidence for this functional link is lacking. Twenty-five young adults completed a delay and social discounting task during fMRI scanning. A spatiotemporal partial least squares analysis revealed that both forms of discounting were well characterized by a pattern of brain activity in areas comprising frontoparietal control, default, and mesolimbic reward networks. Both forms of discounting appear to draw on common neurocognitive mechanisms, regardless of whether choices involve intertemporal or interpersonal outcomes. We also observed neural profiles differentiating between high and low discounters. High discounters were well characterized by increased medial temporal lobe and limbic activity. In contrast, low discount rates were associated with activity in the medial prefrontal cortex and right temporoparietal junction. This pattern may reflect biological mechanisms underlying behavioral heterogeneity in discount rates. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Global warming: discounting is not the issue, but substitutability is

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neumayer, E.

    1999-01-01

    The cost-benefit study of Nordhaus (1994) is representative for the neoclassical approach towards global warming. Nordhaus found that no substantial emission cuts are warranted. Most of his critics have concentrated on the issue of discounting and demanded that a lower discount rate should be applied. These criticisms first miss the point and second lead to ethically dubious, inconsistent conclusions and inefficient policy choices. They miss the point because the real problem of Nordhaus's methodology is his implicit underlying assumption of perfect substitutability between natural and other forms of capital. Given the validity of this assumption, lowering the rate of discount is inconsistent with current savings behaviour, is ethically dubious because future generations will be much richer than the current one anyway, and is inefficient because scarce financial resources are channelled into emissions abatement that exhibits rates of return far inferior to alternative public investments. Any call for aggressive emission abatement must therefore directly attack the perfect substitutability assumption of neoclassical economics. The real disagreement is about whether consumption growth can compensate for environmental degradation caused by global warming. Discounting is not the issue, but substitutability is. (author)

  19. The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors

    OpenAIRE

    John Y. Campbell; Robert J. Shiller

    1986-01-01

    A linearization of a rational expectations present value model for corporate stock prices produces a simple relation between the log dividend-price ratio and mathematical expectations of future log real dividend changes and future real discount rates. This relation can be tested using vector autoregressive methods. Three versions of the linearized model, differing in the measure of discount rates, are tested for U. S. time series 1871-1986: versions using real interest rate data, aggregate re...

  20. Low Discounting Behavior among Small-Scale Fishers in Fiji and Sabah, Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Louise S. L. Teh

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the socio-economic factors that are associated with fishers’ willingness to delay gratification may be useful for designing appropriate fisheries management and conservation policies. We aim to identify the predictors of low discounting behaviour among fishers, which is analogous to having a longer-term outlook. We base our empirical study on two small-scale tropical reef fisheries in Sabah, Malaysia, and Fiji. We use an experimental approach to identify fishers with low discount rates, and then use a logistic regression model to identify predictors of low discount rates. We find that 42% of the respondents have low discount rates, and that site and village level variables are significant predictors of low discount rates. Within Sabah and Fiji, boat ownership and relative catch differentiate low discounting from non-low discounting fishers, but these variables have contradictory effects in Sabah and Fiji. Overall, our results imply that a substantial proportion of reef fishers may be willing to engage in conservation initiatives; however, local socio-cultural, economic, and ecological conditions have to be considered first during the process of designing management interventions.

  1. Evaluation of Deep Discount Fare Strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    1995-08-01

    This report evaluates the success of a fare pricing strategy known as deep discounting, that entails the bulk sale of transit tickets or tokens to customers at a significant discount compared to the full fare single ticket price. This market-driven s...

  2. Discounting of Condom-Protected Sex as a Measure of High Risk for Sexually Transmitted Infection Among College Students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collado, Anahí; Johnson, Patrick S; Loya, Jennifer M; Johnson, Matthew W; Yi, Richard

    2017-10-01

    The study examined sexual delay discounting, or the devaluation of condom-protected sex in the face of delay, as a risk factor for sexually transmitted infection (STI) among college students. Participants (143 females, 117 males) completed the sexual delay discounting task (Johnson & Bruner, 2012) and questionnaires of risky sexual behavior, risk perception, and knowledge. Participants exhibited steeper sexual delay discounting (above and beyond general likelihood of having unprotected sex) when partners were viewed as more desirable or less likely to have a STI, with males demonstrating greater sexual delay discounting than females across most conditions. Importantly, greater self-reported risky sexual behaviors were associated with higher rates of sexual delay discounting, but not with likelihood of using a condom in the absence of delay. These results provide support for considering sexual delay discounting, with particular emphasis on potential delays to condom use, as a risk factor for STI among college students.

  3. Exchanging the liquidity hypothesis: Delay discounting of money and self-relevant non-money rewards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stuppy-Sullivan, Allison M; Tormohlen, Kayla N; Yi, Richard

    2016-01-01

    Evidence that primary rewards (e.g., food and drugs of abuse) are discounted more than money is frequently attributed to money's high degree of liquidity, or exchangeability for many commodities. The present study provides some evidence against this liquidity hypothesis by contrasting delay discounting of monetary rewards (liquid) and non-monetary commodities (non-liquid) that are self-relevant and utility-matched. Ninety-seven (97) undergraduate students initially completed a conventional binary-choice delay discounting of money task. Participants returned one week later and completed a self-relevant commodity delay discounting task. Both conventional hypothesis testing and more-conservative tests of statistical equivalence revealed correspondence in rate of delay discounting of money and self-relevant commodities, and in one magnitude condition, less discounting for the latter. The present results indicate that liquidity of money cannot fully account for the lower rate of delay discounting compared to non-money rewards. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Trading Later Rewards for Current Pleasure: Pornography Consumption and Delay Discounting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Negash, Sesen; Sheppard, Nicole Van Ness; Lambert, Nathaniel M; Fincham, Frank D

    2016-01-01

    Internet pornography is a multi-billion-dollar industry that has grown increasingly accessible. Delay discounting involves devaluing larger, later rewards in favor of smaller, more immediate rewards. The constant novelty and primacy of sexual stimuli as particularly strong natural rewards make Internet pornography a unique activator of the brain's reward system, thereby having implications for decision-making processes. Based on theoretical studies of evolutionary psychology and neuroeconomics, two studies tested the hypothesis that consuming Internet pornography would relate to higher rates of delay discounting. Study 1 used a longitudinal design. Participants completed a pornography use questionnaire and a delay discounting task at Time 1 and then again four weeks later. Participants reporting higher initial pornography use demonstrated a higher delay discounting rate at Time 2, controlling for initial delay discounting. Study 2 tested for causality with an experimental design. Participants were randomly assigned to abstain from either their favorite food or pornography for three weeks. Participants who abstained from pornography use demonstrated lower delay discounting than participants who abstained from their favorite food. The finding suggests that Internet pornography is a sexual reward that contributes to delay discounting differently than other natural rewards. Theoretical and clinical implications of these studies are highlighted.

  5. Future Discounting in Congo Basin Hunter-Gatherers Declines with Socio-Economic Transitions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gul Deniz Salali

    Full Text Available Humans have a tendency to discount the future; that is we value small, short-term rewards over larger, long-term rewards. The degree of future discounting, however, changes in response to socio-ecological factors. Here, we study Mbendjele BaYaka hunter-gatherers of northern Congo and their farmer neighbours to investigate adaptations in inter-temporal preferences in humans. We argue that in immediate-return systems, where food storage is absent and egalitarianism is enforced through levelling mechanisms, future discounting is an adaptive strategy to prevent wealth accumulation and the emergence of hierarchies. This ensures food sharing and allows for survival in unpredictable environments where there is risk of an energy shortfall. On the other hand, when food storage is made possible by the emergence of agriculture or as seen in some delayed-return hunter-gatherer populations, wealth accumulation, hierarchies and lower discount rates become the adaptive strategy. Therefore, individuals in immediate-return, egalitarian societies will discount the future more than those in non-egalitarian, delayed-return societies. Consistent with the predictions we found that market integration and socio-economic transitions decrease the future discounting in Mbendjele hunter-gatherers. Our measures of socio-economic differences marked this transition in hunter-gatherers living in a logging town. The degree of future-discounting was the same between more market-integrated hunter-gatherers and their farmer neighbours.

  6. Delay discounting, self-control, and substance use among adult drug court participants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Craig G A; Fearnley, Helen; Panagiotopoulos, Barbara; Kemp, Richard I

    2015-08-01

    The current study examined the relationship between two measures of impulsiveness and the odds of substance use among a sample of participants on an Australian drug court (n=80). Participants completed a computer-based delay discounting task, a paper-based delay discounting task, and a questionnaire-based measure of self-control. The delay discounting tasks measured individual differences in the value attributed to distal outcomes, which is one aspect of impulsive behavior that has been found to be over-represented among illicit drug users. The relationship between the measures of impulsiveness and the odds of substance use was assessed by fitting longitudinal panel regression models with adjustment for informative treatment dropout. Consistent with previous research, drug court participants were found to have higher discount rates (i.e. were more impulsive) than a noncriminal population of university students (n=101). Drug court participants also discounted delayed gains more than delayed losses. Delay discounting was not significantly associated with the odds of substance use on the drug court program. There was a positive relationship between the survey-based measure of impulsivity and the mean substance use frequency. The authors conclude that impulsivity is correlated with substance use among drug court participants but not when measuring impulsivity using a delay discounting paradigm.

  7. Psychological aspects of nuclear waste disposal: Long time perception and the question of discounting of risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karlsson, G.; Svenson, O.

    1988-01-01

    Subjects of different ages and basic training indicated how they perceived risks related to spent nuclear fuel storage and located at different points of time into the future. The results indicated that minorities in all groups, ranging from about 10 to 40%, did not want to discount risks into the future. Those who discounted exhibited great inter and intra group variability. The physical discounting curves for e.g. both total radiation and for Pu-239 and -240 are within the range of curves generated by the groups for subjective discounting of risk. Politicians and experts were attributed equal shares of responsibility for risks of spent nuclear fuel in the future. About 10% to 40% of the subjects did not wish to discount responsibility. Discounting rates for those discounting varied so that some subjects decreased the level of responsibility to less than half 10 000 years into the future while others attributed this level of responsibility for 100 000 years and more. (orig./HP)

  8. Time management problems and discounted utility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    König, Cornelius J; Kleinmann, Martin

    2007-05-01

    The lens of behavioral decision theory offers a new perspective for research on time management. The basic idea of this approach is that people discount future consequences of their time management decisions, meaning that they work on tasks with smaller but sooner outcomes rather than on tasks with larger but later outcomes. The authors performed 2 experimental studies to test whether people are sensitive to differences in the discounted utility of time management decisions. In Experiment 1, they used vignettes of typical time management situations; Experiment 2 was a laboratory simulation (an in-basket task that was part of a training assessment). Participants in both studies were German students. As expected, manipulating the discounted utility of options resulted in different time management decisions. In Experiment 1, reactions to time management situations were judged as less likely if the reactions had lower discounted utilities. In Experiment 2, people spent less time on an interruption.

  9. 7 CFR 1786.153 - Discounted present value.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 12 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Discounted present value. 1786.153 Section 1786.153... Discounted Prepayments on RUS Electric Loans § 1786.153 Discounted present value. (a) The discounted present value shall be calculated by summing the present values of all remaining payments on all Qualified Notes...

  10. 7 CFR 1786.53 - Discounted present value.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 12 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Discounted present value. 1786.53 Section 1786.53... Special Discounted Prepayments on RUS Direct/Insured Loans § 1786.53 Discounted present value. The Discounted Present Value shall be calculated five business days before prepayment is made by summing the...

  11. TD Waterhouse discount brokerage: a competitive strategy

    OpenAIRE

    Dangerfield, Catherine

    2007-01-01

    This paper provides a strategic analysis of TD Waterhouse (TDW), the discount brokerage provider within TD Bank Financial Group (TDBFG). Discount brokerage in Canada is an increasingly lucrative industry and contributes significantly to the bottom lines of every major financial institution in the country. It is also a rapidly changing and intensely price-competitive industry in which an explicit, educated business strategy is of the utmost importance. TDW currently employs a somewhat ambiguou...

  12. Discounting Models for Outcomes over Continuous Time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harvey, Charles M.; Østerdal, Lars Peter

    Events that occur over a period of time can be described either as sequences of outcomes at discrete times or as functions of outcomes in an interval of time. This paper presents discounting models for events of the latter type. Conditions on preferences are shown to be satisfied if and only if t...... if the preferences are represented by a function that is an integral of a discounting function times a scale defined on outcomes at instants of time....

  13. Individual differences in delay discounting under acute stress: the role of trait perceived stress

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karolina M. Lempert

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Delay discounting refers to the reduction of the value of a future reward as the delay to that reward increases. The rate at which individuals discount future rewards varies as a function of both individual and contextual differences, and high delay discounting rates have been linked with problematic behaviors, including drug abuse and gambling. The current study investigated the effects of acute anticipatory stress on delay discounting, while considering two important factors: individual perceptions of stress and whether the stressful situation is future-focused or present-focused. Half of the participants experienced acute stress by anticipating giving a videotaped speech. This stress was either future-oriented (speech about future job or present-oriented (speech about physical appearance. They then performed a delay discounting task, in which they chose between smaller, immediate rewards and larger, delayed rewards. Their scores on the Perceived Stress Scale were also collected. The way in which one appraises a stressful situation interacts with acute stress to influence choices; under stressful conditions, delay discounting rate was highest in individuals with low perceived stress and lowest for individuals with high perceived stress. This result might be related to individual variation in reward responsiveness under stress. Furthermore, the time orientation of the task interacted with its stressfulness to affect the individual’s propensity to choose immediate rewards. These findings add to our understanding of the intermediary factors between stress and decision making.

  14. Discounting of money and sex: effects of commodity and temporal position in stimulant-dependent men and women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarmolowicz, David P; Landes, Reid D; Christensen, Darren R; Jones, Bryan A; Jackson, Lisa; Yi, Richard; Bickel, Warren K

    2014-11-01

    Research on delay discounting has contributed to the understanding of numerous addiction-related phenomena. For example, studies have shown that substance dependent individuals discount their addictive substances (e.g., cocaine) more rapidly than they do other commodities (e.g., money). Recent research has shown that substance dependent individuals discount delayed sex more rapidly than delayed money, and their discounting rates for delayed sex were higher than those of non-addicted individuals. The particular reason that delay discounting rates for sex are higher than those for money, however, are unclear. Do individuals discount delayed sex rapidly because immediate sex is particularly appealing or because delayed sex does not retain its value? Moreover, do the same factors influence men and women's choices? The current study examined delay discounting in four conditions (money now versus money later; sex now versus sex later; money now, versus sex later; sex now versus money later) in cocaine dependent men and women. The procedures used isolated the role of the immediate versus delayed commodity. For men, the higher rates of delay discounting for sex were because delayed sex did not retain its value, whereas both the immediate and delayed commodity influenced the female participants' decisions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. ACCOUNTING TREATMENT FOR COMMERCIAL DISCOUNTS ON GOODS PURCHASED FOR RESALE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    HOLT GHEORGHE

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available In the specialized literature there are two major categories of discounts applied between business partners: trade discounts and financial discounts. In terms of accounting, the method of calculation of interest is commercial and financial cuts, especially the tax treatment of them. Trade discounts are applied prior to financial services, and both types of discounts are calculated on the net earlier. Discounts are calculated after applying discounts and special an issue is to know the level of rebates, which are determined periodically based on the turnover.

  16. Benefit assessment in Germany: implications for price discounts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Theidel, Ulrike; von der Schulenburg, J-Matthias Graf

    2016-12-01

    The AMNOG regulation, introduced in 2011 in Germany, changed the game for new drugs. Now, the industry is required to submit a dossier to the GBA (the central decision body in the German sickness fund system) to show additional benefit. After granting the magnitude of the additional benefit by the GBA, the manufacturer is entitled to negotiate the reimbursement price with the GKV-SV (National Association of Statutory Health Insurance Funds). The reimbursement price is defined as a discount on the drug price at launch. As the price or discount negotiations between the manufacturers and the GKV-SV takes place behind closed doors, the factors influencing the results of the negotiation are not known. The aim of this evaluation is to identify factors influencing the results of the AMNOG price negotiation process. The analysis was based on a dataset containing detailed information on all assessments until the end of 2015. A descriptive analysis was followed by an econometric analysis of various potential factors (benefit rating, size of target population, deviating from appropriate comparative therapy and incorporation of HRQoL-data). Until December 2015, manufacturers and the GKV-SV finalized 96 negotiations in 193 therapeutic areas, based on assessment conducted by the GBA. The GBA has granted an additional benefit to 100/193 drug innovations. Negotiated discount was significantly higher for those drugs without additional benefit (p = 0.030) and non-orphan drugs (p = 0.015). Smaller population size, no deviation from recommended appropriate comparative therapy and the incorporation of HRQoL-data were associated with a lower discount on the price at launch. However, neither a uni- nor the multivariate linear regression showed enough power to predict the final discount. Although the AMNOG regulation implemented binding and strict rules for the benefit assessment itself, the outcome of the discount negotiations are still unpredictable. Obviously, negotiation

  17. Observed and Normative Discount Functions in Addiction and other Diseases

    OpenAIRE

    Cruz Rambaud, Salvador; Mu?oz Torrecillas, Mar?a J.; Takahashi, Taiki

    2017-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to find a suitable discount function able to describe the progression of a certain addiction or disease under treatment as a discounting process. In effect, a certain indicator related to a disease decays over time in a manner which is mathematically similar to the way in which discounting has been modeled. We analyze the discount functions observed in experiments which study addictive and other problematic behaviors as well as some alternative hyperbola-like discount...

  18. Intertemporal Decision Making After Brain Injury: Amount-Dependent Steeper Discounting after Frontal Cortex Damage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Białaszek Wojciech

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Traumatic brain injuries to the frontal lobes are associated with many maladaptive forms of behavior. We investigated the association between brain damage and impulsivity, as measured by the rate of delay discounting (i.e., the extent to which future outcomes are devalued in time. The main aim of this study was to test the hypothesis of steeper discounting of different amounts in a group of patients with frontal lobe damage. We used a delay discounting task in the form of a structured interview. A total of 117 participants were divided into five groups: three neurological groups and two groups without brain damage. Our analyses showed that patients with focal damage to the frontal lobes demonstrated steeper delay discounting than other participants. Other clinical groups demonstrated similar discounting rates. The data pattern related to the magnitude effect on the group level suggested that the magnitude effect is absent in the group of patients with damage to the frontal lobes; however, results were less consistent on an individual level. Amount-dependent discounting was observed in only two groups, the healthy control group and the neurological group with other cortical areas damaged.

  19. Delay Discounting as an Index of Sustainable Behavior: Devaluation of Future Air Quality and Implications for Public Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berry, Meredith S; Nickerson, Norma P; Odum, Amy L

    2017-09-01

    Poor air quality and resulting annual deaths represent significant public health concerns. Recently, rapid delay discounting (the devaluation of future outcomes) of air quality has been considered a potential barrier for engaging in long term, sustainable behaviors that might help to reduce emissions (e.g., reducing private car use, societal support for clean air initiatives). Delay discounting has been shown to be predictive of real world behavior outside of laboratory settings, and therefore may offer an important framework beyond traditional variables thought to measure sustainable behavior such as importance of an environmental issue, or environmental attitudes/values, although more research is needed in this area. We examined relations between discounting of air quality, respiratory health, and monetary gains and losses. We also examined, relations between discounting and self-reported importance of air quality and respiratory health, and nature relatedness. Results showed rapid delay discounting of all outcomes across the time frames assessed, and significant positive correlations between delay discounting of air quality, respiratory health, and monetary outcomes. Steeper discounting of monetary outcomes relative to air quality and respiratory health outcomes was observed in the context of gains; however, no differences in discounting were observed across losses of monetary, air quality, and respiratory health. Replicating the sign effect, monetary outcomes were discounted more steeply than monetary losses. Importance of air quality, respiratory health and nature relatedness were significantly and positively correlated with one another, but not with degree of delay discounting of any outcome, demonstrating the need for more comprehensive measures that predict pro-environmental behaviors that might benefit individuals and public health over time. These results add to our understanding of decision-making, and demonstrate alarming rates of delay discounting of

  20. Discounting future health benefits: the poverty of consistency arguments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nord, Erik

    2011-01-01

    In economic evaluation of health care, main stream practice is to discount benefits at the same rate as costs. But main papers in which this practice is advocated have missed a distinction between two quite different evaluation problems: (1) How much does the time of program occurrence matter for value and (2) how much do delays in health benefits from programs implemented at a given time matter? The papers have furthermore focused on logical and arithmetic arguments rather than on real value considerations. These 'consistency arguments' are at best trivial, at worst logically flawed. At the end of the day, there is a sensible argument for equal discounting of costs and benefits rooted in microeconomic theory of rational, utility maximising consumers' saving behaviour. But even this argument is problematic, first because the model is not clearly supported by empirical observations of individuals' time preferences for health, second because it relates only to evaluation in terms of overall individual utility. It does not provide grounds for claiming that decision makers with a wider societal perspective, which may include concerns for fair distribution, need to discount Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  1. Temporal Discounting Is Associated with an Increased Risk of Mortality among Community-Based Older Persons without Dementia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patricia A Boyle

    Full Text Available Temporal discounting is an important determinant of many health and financial outcomes, but we are not aware of studies that have examined the association of temporal discounting with mortality.Participants were 406 older persons without dementia from the Rush Memory and Aging Project, a longitudinal cohort study of aging. Temporal discounting was measured using standard preference elicitation questions. Individual discount rates were estimated using a well-established hyperbolic function and used to predict the risk of mortality during up to 5 years of follow-up.The mean estimate of discounting was 0.45 (SD = 0.33, range: 0.08-0.90, with higher scores indicating a greater propensity to prefer smaller immediate rewards over larger but delayed ones. During up to 5 years of follow-up (mean = 3.6 years, 62 (15% of 406 persons died. In a proportional hazards model adjusted for age, sex, and education, temporal discounting was associated with an increased risk of mortality (HR = 1.103, 95% CI 1.024, 1.190, p = 0.010. Thus, a person with the highest discount rate (score = 0.90 was about twice more likely to die over the study period compared to a person with the lowest discount rate (score = 0.08. Further, the association of discounting with mortality persisted after adjustment for the level of global cognitive function, the burden of vascular risk factors and diseases, and an indicator of psychological well being (i.e., purpose in life.Temporal discounting is associated with an increased risk of mortality in old age after accounting for global cognitive function and indicators of physical and mental health.

  2. Retailer Stackelberg game in a supply chain with pricing and service decisions and simple price discount contract

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadjadi, Seyed Jafar; Sadeghian, Ramin; Sahebi, Hadi

    2018-01-01

    This paper studies the Retailer Stackelberg game in a supply chain consisting of two manufacturers and one retailer where they compete simultaneously under three factors including price, service and simple price discount contract. It is assumed that the second manufacturer provides service directly to his customers, and the retailer provides service for the first product’s customers, while the retailer buys the first product under price discount from the first manufacturer. The analysis of the optimal equilibrium solutions and the results of the numerical examples show that if a manufacturer chooses the appropriate range of discount rate, he will gain more profit than when there is no discount given to the retailer. This situation can be considered as an effective tool for the coordination of the first manufacturer and the retailer to offer discount by manufacturer and to provide the service by the retailer. We obtain equilibrium solution of Retailer Stackelberg game and analyze the numerical examples under two cases: a) the manufacturers sell their products to the retailer without price discount contract. b) The first manufacturer sells his products to the retailer with the simple price discount contract. The preliminary results show that the service and the price discount contract can improve the performance of supply chain. PMID:29649315

  3. Retailer Stackelberg game in a supply chain with pricing and service decisions and simple price discount contract.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadjadi, Seyed Jafar; Asadi, Hashem; Sadeghian, Ramin; Sahebi, Hadi

    2018-01-01

    This paper studies the Retailer Stackelberg game in a supply chain consisting of two manufacturers and one retailer where they compete simultaneously under three factors including price, service and simple price discount contract. It is assumed that the second manufacturer provides service directly to his customers, and the retailer provides service for the first product's customers, while the retailer buys the first product under price discount from the first manufacturer. The analysis of the optimal equilibrium solutions and the results of the numerical examples show that if a manufacturer chooses the appropriate range of discount rate, he will gain more profit than when there is no discount given to the retailer. This situation can be considered as an effective tool for the coordination of the first manufacturer and the retailer to offer discount by manufacturer and to provide the service by the retailer. We obtain equilibrium solution of Retailer Stackelberg game and analyze the numerical examples under two cases: a) the manufacturers sell their products to the retailer without price discount contract. b) The first manufacturer sells his products to the retailer with the simple price discount contract. The preliminary results show that the service and the price discount contract can improve the performance of supply chain.

  4. Unhealthy diets, obesity and time discounting: a systematic literature review and network analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlow, Pepita; Reeves, Aaron; McKee, Martin; Galea, Gauden; Stuckler, David

    2016-09-01

    There is an increasing policy commitment to address the avoidable burdens of unhealthy diet, overweight and obesity. However, to design effective policies, it is important to understand why people make unhealthy dietary choices. Research from behavioural economics suggests a critical role for time discounting, which describes how people's value of a reward, such as better health, decreases with delay to its receipt. We systematically reviewed the literature on the relationship of time discounting with unhealthy diets, overweight and obesity in Web of Science and PubMed. We identified 41 studies that met our inclusion criteria as they examined the association between time discount rates and (i) unhealthy food consumption; (ii) overweight and (iii) response to dietary and weight loss interventions. Nineteen out of 25 cross-sectional studies found time discount rates positively associated with overweight, obesity and unhealthy diets. Experimental studies indicated that lower time discounting was associated with greater weight loss. Findings varied by how time discount rates were measured; stronger results were observed for food than monetary-based measurements. Network co-citation analysis revealed a concentration of research in nutrition journals. Overall, there is moderate evidence that high time discounting is a significant risk factor for unhealthy diets, overweight and obesity and may serve as an important target for intervention. © 2016 The Authors Obesity Reviews published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Association for the Study of Obesity (IASO). © 2016 The Authors Obesity Reviews published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Association for the Study of Obesity (IASO).

  5. 10% discount at Novae restaurants for students

    CERN Document Server

    2016-01-01

    A 10% discount will be granted for students dining in restaurants 1 and 2 (on the Meyrin site) during the summer from 15 June 2016 to 15 September 2016.   A special badge will be issued by the respective secretariats if the student fulfils the following criteria:  Is under 25 years old; Is in possession of a student card issued by a University or college; Has a CERN contract > 1 month (Users, Summer Students, Trainees, etc). This badge and the CERN access card will have to be shown at the Novae restaurants in order to benefit from this discount.

  6. A behavioral economic analysis of texting while driving: Delay discounting processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayashi, Yusuke; Miller, Kimberly; Foreman, Anne M; Wirth, Oliver

    2016-12-01

    The purpose of the present study was to examine an impulsive decision-making process underlying texting while driving from a behavioral economic perspective. A sample of 108 college students completed a novel discounting task that presented participants with a hypothetical scenario in which, after receiving a text message while driving, they rated the likelihood of replying to a text message immediately versus waiting to reply for a specific period of time. Participants also completed a delay discounting task in which they made repeated hypothetical choices between obtaining a larger amount of money available after a delay and an equal or lesser amount of money available immediately. The results show that the duration of the delay is a critical variable that strongly determines whether participants choose to wait to reply to a text message, and that the decrease in the likelihood of waiting as a function of delay is best described by a hyperbolic delay discounting function. The results also show that participants who self-reported higher frequency of texting while driving discounted the opportunity to reply to a text message at greater rates, whereas there was no relation between the rates of discounting of hypothetical monetary rewards and the frequency of texting while driving. The results support the conclusion that texting while driving is fundamentally an impulsive choice. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Hypothetical intertemporal choice and real economic behavior: delay discounting predicts voucher redemptions during contingency-management procedures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bickel, Warren K; Jones, Bryan A; Landes, Reid D; Christensen, Darren R; Jackson, Lisa; Mancino, Michael

    2010-12-01

    Delay discounting rates are predictive of drug use status, the likelihood of becoming abstinent, and a variety of health behaviors. Rates of delay discounting may also be related to other relevant behaviors associated with addiction, such as the frequency at which individuals redeem contingency management voucher earnings. This study examined the discounting rates of 152 participants in a buprenorphine treatment program for opioid abuse. Participants received up to 12 weeks of buprenorphine treatment combined with contingency management. Participant's drug use was measured via urine specimens submitted three times a week. Successive negative urine specimens were reinforced with increasing amounts of money. After each negative urine specimen, a participant could either redeem his or her earnings or accumulate it in an account. Analysis of the frequency of redemptions showed that participants with higher rates of delay discounting at study intake redeemed their earnings significantly more often than participants with lower rates of discounting. Age and income also predicted redemption rates. We suggest that delay discounting rates can be used to predict redemption behaviors in a contingency management treatment program and that these findings are consistent with the recent theory of the competing neurobehavioral decision systems. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved.

  8. An adaptive, individualized fMRI delay discounting procedure to increase flexibility and optimize scanner time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koffarnus, Mikhail N; Deshpande, Harshawardhan U; Lisinski, Jonathan M; Eklund, Anders; Bickel, Warren K; LaConte, Stephen M

    2017-11-01

    Research on the rate at which people discount the value of future rewards has become increasingly prevalent as discount rate has been shown to be associated with many unhealthy patterns of behavior such as drug abuse, gambling, and overeating. fMRI research points to a fronto-parietal-limbic pathway that is active during decisions between smaller amounts of money now and larger amounts available after a delay. Researchers in this area have used different variants of delay discounting tasks and reported various contrasts between choice trials of different types from these tasks. For instance, researchers have compared 1) choices of delayed monetary amounts to choices of the immediate monetary amounts, 2) 'hard' choices made near one's point of indifference to 'easy' choices that require little thought, and 3) trials where an immediate choice is available versus trials where one is unavailable, regardless of actual eventual choice. These differences in procedure and analysis make comparison of results across studies difficult. In the present experiment, we designed a delay discounting task with the intended capability of being able to construct contrasts of all three comparisons listed above while optimizing scanning time to reduce costs and avoid participant fatigue. This was accomplished with an algorithm that customized the choice trials presented to each participant with the goal of equalizing choice trials of each type. We compared this task, which we refer to here as the individualized discounting task (IDT), to two other delay discounting tasks previously reported in the literature (McClure et al., 2004; Amlung et al., 2014) in 18 participants. Results show that the IDT can examine each of the three contrasts mentioned above, while yielding a similar degree of activation as the reference tasks. This suggests that this new task could be used in delay discounting fMRI studies to allow researchers to more easily compare their results to a majority of previous

  9. THE SECULAR INFLUENCE OF THE RATE OF REFERENCE ON THE ECONOMIC POLICIES

    OpenAIRE

    Emilian M.DOBRESCU

    2005-01-01

    Having as starting point Radu Stoenescu’s book with respect to discount, and the difficulty in defining discount, we pursue to clarify this category and other associated ones, such as reference rate, discount rate, re-discount and its rate, in a historical and actual approach. The purpose is to demonstrate that the monetary policy about discount influences the economic policies and that is why it must be altered and guided in accordance with the changes of current economic-financial activity.

  10. Discounts at the Carlson Wagonlit travel agency

    CERN Document Server

    2008-01-01

    The Carlson Wagonlit travel agency is offering exceptional discounts of up to 40% for bookings with M-Travel before 29 February 2008 and Helvetic Tours before 30 March 2008. For terms and conditions and further information please contact the CERN Carlson Wagonlit Travel office, Main Building (500), Tel. 72763.

  11. Discounted Markov games : generalized policy iteration method

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wal, van der J.

    1978-01-01

    In this paper, we consider two-person zero-sum discounted Markov games with finite state and action spaces. We show that the Newton-Raphson or policy iteration method as presented by Pollats-chek and Avi-Itzhak does not necessarily converge, contradicting a proof of Rao, Chandrasekaran, and Nair.

  12. A Delay Discounting Model of Psychotherapy Termination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swift, Joshua K.; Callahan, Jennifer L.

    2009-01-01

    Delay discounting (DD) procedures are emerging as an important new method for psychotherapy researchers. In this paper a framework for conceptualizing existing, seemingly discrepant, research findings on termination is introduced and new directions for research are described. To illustrate the value of a DD framework, the common psychotherapy…

  13. Win-Win Strategies at Discount Stores

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. Deleersnyder (Barbara); M.G. Dekimpe (Marnik); J-B.E.M. Steenkamp (Jan-Benedict); O. Koll (Oliver)

    2005-01-01

    textabstractAn important development that contributes to store brands’ growing success in the grocery market is the increasing number of discount stores that sell predominantly own, private-label, brands. To fight private labels, manufacturers of national brands feel increasingly compelled to

  14. Book Discounts and Cost-Plus Pricing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andresen, David C.

    1974-01-01

    The adoption of cost-plus pricing by a major book jobber may have profound effects on the discounts that libraries receive. The article explains the pricing system and presents a set of graphs for libraries to use to determine its effects. (Author)

  15. Error Discounting in Probabilistic Category Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craig, Stewart; Lewandowsky, Stephan; Little, Daniel R.

    2011-01-01

    The assumption in some current theories of probabilistic categorization is that people gradually attenuate their learning in response to unavoidable error. However, existing evidence for this error discounting is sparse and open to alternative interpretations. We report 2 probabilistic-categorization experiments in which we investigated error…

  16. Measurement-theoretic foundations of time discounting in economics

    OpenAIRE

    Conrad Heilmann

    2008-01-01

    In economics, the concept of time discounting introduces weights on future goods to make these less valuable. Yet, both the conceptual motivation for time discounting and its specic functional form remain contested. To address these problems, this paper provides a measurement-theoretic framework of representation for time discounting. The representation theorem characterises time discounting factors by representations of time dierences. This general result can be interpreted with existing the...

  17. Do the Powerful Discount the Future Less? The Effects of Power on Temporal Discounting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Jinyun; Wu, Sherry J; Sun, Luying

    2017-01-01

    Individuals have the tendency to discount rewards in the future, known as temporal discounting, and we find that sense of power (the felt capacity to influence the thinking and behavior of others) reduces such tendency. In Studies 1 and 2, we used both an experiment and a survey with organizational employees to demonstrate that power reduced temporal discounting. In Study 3, we replicated study 1 while exploring a unique cultural trait of Danbo , or indifference to fame and wealth, across two ethnic groups (Han and Tibetan groups) in China. While power reduces temporal discounting, the relationship between the two may be leveraged by individual differences of optimism, frustration, and Danbo . The results imply a more nuanced interpretation of how individual and situational factors can affect intertemporal choice.

  18. Destination discount : A sensible road for national brands?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Deleersnyder, B.; Koll, O.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose – This paper aims to study the consequences of listing national brands in discounters. Is the discount channel a promising outlet for manufacturer brands? Is it an effective means to attract new buyers? Which combination of brand and discount destination at which price is best suited for

  19. Discount-Optimal Infinite Runs in Priced Timed Automata

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fahrenberg, Uli; Larsen, Kim Guldstrand

    2009-01-01

    We introduce a new discounting semantics for priced timed automata. Discounting provides a way to model optimal-cost problems for infinite traces and has applications in optimal scheduling and other areas. In the discounting semantics, prices decrease exponentially, so that the contribution...

  20. 48 CFR 952.251-70 - Contractor employee travel discounts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 5 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Contractor employee travel... Contractor employee travel discounts. As prescribed in 951.7002, insert the following clause: Contractor Employee Travel Discounts (AUG 2009) (a) The Contractor shall take advantage of travel discounts offered to...

  1. 7 CFR 1786.98 - Discounted present value.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 12 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Discounted present value. 1786.98 Section 1786.98... Discounted present value. (a) The Discounted Present Value shall be calculated by RUS before prepayment is made by summing the present values of all remaining payments on all outstanding notes according to the...

  2. Discounting and distributional considerations in the context of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Azar, Christian; Sterner, Thomas

    1996-01-01

    The economics of global warming is reviewed with special emphasis on how the cost depends on the discount rate and on how costs in poor and rich regions are aggregated into a global cost estimate. Both of these factors depend on the assumptions made concerning the underlying utility and welfare functions. It is common to aggregate welfare gains and losses across generations and countries as if the utility of money were constant, but it is not. If we assume that a CO 2 -equivalent doubling implies costs equal to 1.5% of the income in both high and low income countries, a pure rate of time preference equal to zero, and a utility function which is logarithmic in income, then the marginal cost of CO 2 emissions is estimated at 260-590 USD/ton C for a time horizon in the range 300-1000 years, an estimate which is large enough to justify significant reductions of CO 2 emissions on purely economic grounds. The estimate is approximately 50-100-times larger than the estimate made by Nordhaus in his DICE model and the difference is almost completely due to the choice of discount rate and the weight given to the costs in the developing world as well as a more accurate model of the carbon cycle. Finally, the sensitivity of the marginal cost estimate with respect to several parameters is analyzed

  3. Discounting and decision making in the economic evaluation of health-care technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Claxton, Karl; Paulden, Mike; Gravelle, Hugh; Brouwer, Werner; Culyer, Anthony J

    2011-01-01

    Discounting costs and health benefits in cost-effectiveness analysis has been the subject of recent debate - some authors suggesting a common rate for both and others suggesting a lower rate for health. We show how these views turn on key judgments of fact and value: on whether the social objective is to maximise discounted health outcomes or the present consumption value of health; on whether the budget for health care is fixed; on the expected growth in the cost-effectiveness threshold; and on the expected growth in the consumption value of health. We demonstrate that if the budget for health care is fixed and decisions are based on incremental cost effectiveness ratios (ICERs), discounting costs and health gains at the same rate is correct only if the threshold remains constant. Expecting growth in the consumption value of health does not itself justify differential rates but implies a lower rate for both. However, whether one believes that the objective should be the maximisation of the present value of health or the present consumption value of health, adopting the social time preference rate for consumption as the discount rate for costs and health gains is valid only under strong and implausible assumptions about values and facts. 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  4. Probabilistic Discounting of Hypothetical Monetary Gains: University Students Differ in How They Discount "Won" and "Owed" Money

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weatherly, Jeffrey N.; Derenne, Adam

    2013-01-01

    The present study tested whether participants would discount "won" money differently than they would "owed" money in a probability-discounting task. Participants discounted $1000 or $100,000 that they had won in a sweepstakes or that was owed to them using the multiple-choice (Experiment 1) or fill-in-the-blank (Experiment 2) method of collecting…

  5. Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, delay discounting, and risky financial behaviors: A preliminary analysis of self-report data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Theodore P Beauchaine

    Full Text Available Delay discounting-often referred to as hyperbolic discounting in the financial literature-is defined by a consistent preference for smaller, immediate rewards over larger, delayed rewards, and by failure of future consequences to curtail current consummatory behaviors. Previous research demonstrates (1 excessive delay discounting among individuals with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD, (2 common neural substrates of delay discounting and hyperactive-impulsive symptoms of ADHD, and (3 associations between delay discounting and both debt burden and high interest rate borrowing. This study extends prior research by examining associations between ADHD symptoms, delay discounting, and an array of previously unevaluated financial outcomes among 544 individuals (mean age 35 years. Controlling for age, income, sex, education, and substance use, ADHD symptoms were associated with delay discounting, late credit card payments, credit card balances, use of pawn services, personal debt, and employment histories (less time spent at more jobs. Consistent with neural models of reward processing and associative learning, more of these relations were attributable to hyperactive-impulsive symptoms than inattentive symptoms. Implications for financial decision-making and directions for future research are discussed.

  6. Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, delay discounting, and risky financial behaviors: A preliminary analysis of self-report data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beauchaine, Theodore P; Ben-David, Itzhak; Sela, Aner

    2017-01-01

    Delay discounting-often referred to as hyperbolic discounting in the financial literature-is defined by a consistent preference for smaller, immediate rewards over larger, delayed rewards, and by failure of future consequences to curtail current consummatory behaviors. Previous research demonstrates (1) excessive delay discounting among individuals with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), (2) common neural substrates of delay discounting and hyperactive-impulsive symptoms of ADHD, and (3) associations between delay discounting and both debt burden and high interest rate borrowing. This study extends prior research by examining associations between ADHD symptoms, delay discounting, and an array of previously unevaluated financial outcomes among 544 individuals (mean age 35 years). Controlling for age, income, sex, education, and substance use, ADHD symptoms were associated with delay discounting, late credit card payments, credit card balances, use of pawn services, personal debt, and employment histories (less time spent at more jobs). Consistent with neural models of reward processing and associative learning, more of these relations were attributable to hyperactive-impulsive symptoms than inattentive symptoms. Implications for financial decision-making and directions for future research are discussed.

  7. On the expected discounted penalty functions for two classes of risk processes under a threshold dividend strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Zhaoyang; Xu, Wei; Sun, Decai; Han, Weiguo

    2009-10-01

    In this paper, the discounted penalty (Gerber-Shiu) functions for a risk model involving two independent classes of insurance risks under a threshold dividend strategy are developed. We also assume that the two claim number processes are independent Poisson and generalized Erlang (2) processes, respectively. When the surplus is above this threshold level, dividends are paid at a constant rate that does not exceed the premium rate. Two systems of integro-differential equations for discounted penalty functions are derived, based on whether the surplus is above this threshold level. Laplace transformations of the discounted penalty functions when the surplus is below the threshold level are obtained. And we also derive a system of renewal equations satisfied by the discounted penalty function with initial surplus above the threshold strategy via the Dickson-Hipp operator. Finally, analytical solutions of the two systems of integro-differential equations are presented.

  8. Delay Discounting: Pigeon, Rat, Human – Does it Matter?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanderveldt, Ariana; Oliveira, Luís; Green, Leonard

    2016-01-01

    Delay discounting refers to the decrease in subjective value of an outcome as the time to its receipt increases. Across species and situations, animals discount delayed rewards, and their discounting is well-described by a hyperboloid function. The current review begins with a comparison of discounting models and the procedures used to assess delay discounting in nonhuman animals. We next discuss the generality of discounting, reviewing the effects of different variables on the degree of discounting delayed reinforcers by nonhuman animals. Despite the many similarities in discounting observed between human and nonhuman animals, several differences have been proposed (e.g., the magnitude effect; nonhuman animals discount over a matter of seconds whereas humans report willing to wait months, if not years before receiving a reward), raising the possibility of fundamental species differences in intertemporal choice. After evaluating these differences, we discuss delay discounting from an adaptationist perspective. The pervasiveness of discounting across species and situations suggests it is a fundamental process underlying decision making. PMID:26881899

  9. An alternative approach to calculating Area-Under-the-Curve (AUC) in delay discounting research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borges, Allison M; Kuang, Jinyi; Milhorn, Hannah; Yi, Richard

    2016-09-01

    Applied to delay discounting data, Area-Under-the-Curve (AUC) provides an atheoretical index of the rate of delay discounting. The conventional method of calculating AUC, by summing the areas of the trapezoids formed by successive delay-indifference point pairings, does not account for the fact that most delay discounting tasks scale delay pseudoexponentially, that is, time intervals between delays typically get larger as delays get longer. This results in a disproportionate contribution of indifference points at long delays to the total AUC, with minimal contribution from indifference points at short delays. We propose two modifications that correct for this imbalance via a base-10 logarithmic transformation and an ordinal scaling transformation of delays. These newly proposed indices of discounting, AUClog d and AUCor d, address the limitation of AUC while preserving a primary strength (remaining atheoretical). Re-examination of previously published data provides empirical support for both AUClog d and AUCor d . Thus, we believe theoretical and empirical arguments favor these methods as the preferred atheoretical indices of delay discounting. © 2016 Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

  10. Reliability of the Discounting Inventory: An extension into substance-use population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malesza Marta

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Recent research introduced the Discounting Inventory that allows the measurement of individual differences in the delay, probabilistic, effort, and social discounting rates. The goal of this investigation was to determine several aspects of the reliability of the Discounting Inventory using the responses of 385 participants (200 non-smokers and 185 current-smokers. Two types of reliability are of interest. Internal consistency and test-retest stability. A secondary aim was to extend such reliability measures beyond the non-clinical participant. The current study aimed to measure the reliability of the DI in a nicotine-dependent individuals and non-nicotine-dependent individuals. It is concluded that the internal consistency of the DI is excellent, and that the test-retest reliability results suggest that items intended to measure three types of discounting were likely testing trait, rather than state, factors, regardless of whether “non-smokers” were included in, or excluded from, the analyses (probabilistic discounting scale scores being the exception. With these cautions in mind, however, the psychometric properties of the DI appear to be very good.

  11. Discount method for programming language evaluation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kurtev, Svetomir; Christensen, Tommy Aagaard; Thomsen, Bent

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents work in progress on developing a Discount Method for Programming Language Evaluation inspired by the Discount Usability Evaluation method (Benyon 2010) and the Instant Data Analysis method (Kjeldskov et al. 2004). The method is intended to bridge the gap between small scale...... internal language design evaluation methods and large scale surveys and quantitative evaluation methods. The method is designed to be applicable even before a compiler or IDE is developed for a new language. To test the method, a usability evaluation experiment was carried out on the Quorum programming...... language (Stefik et al. 2016) using programmers with experience in C and C#. When comparing our results with previous studies of Quorum, most of the data was comparable though not strictly in agreement. However, the discrepancies were mainly related to the programmers pre-existing expectations...

  12. Accounting and Tax Issues Concerning Commercial Discounts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sava Raluca

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Commercial discounts accounting presents a particular importance because, on the one hand, of their widely spread on a large scale in the commercial activity and on the second hand, due to the influence of the accounting and reporting method over the value added tax. The paper theoretically addresses commercial reductions and also their reflection in the accounting according with the latest regulations in force.

  13. Positive autobiographical memory retrieval reduces temporal discounting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lempert, Karolina M; Speer, Megan E; Delgado, Mauricio R; Phelps, Elizabeth A

    2017-10-01

    People generally prefer rewards sooner rather than later. This phenomenon, temporal discounting, underlies many societal problems, including addiction and obesity. One way to reduce temporal discounting is to imagine positive future experiences. Since there is overlap in the neural circuitry associated with imagining future experiences and remembering past events, here we investigate whether recalling positive memories can also promote more patient choice. We found that participants were more patient after retrieving positive autobiographical memories, but not when they recalled negative memories. Moreover, individuals were more impulsive after imagining novel positive scenes that were not related to their memories, showing that positive imagery alone does not drive this effect. Activity in the striatum and temporo parietal junction during memory retrieval predicted more patient choice, suggesting that to the extent that memory recall is rewarding and involves perspective-taking, it influences decision-making. Furthermore, representational similarity in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex between memory recall and decision phases correlated with the behavioral effect across participants. Thus, we have identified a novel manipulation for reducing temporal discounting-remembering the positive past-and have begun to characterize the psychological and neural mechanisms behind it. © The Author (2017). Published by Oxford University Press.

  14. Introducing Upfront Money Can Decrease Discounting in Intertemporal Choices with Losses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Cheng-Ming; Sun, Hong-Yue; Zheng, Sheng-Hua; Wang, Liang-Jun; Qin, Yu

    2016-01-01

    People generally tend to advance gains and postpone losses in intertemporal choice. Jiang et al. (2014) recently showed that adding upfront losses or gains to both smaller and sooner (SS) and larger and later (LL) rewards can decrease people's discounting. To account for this decrease, they proposed the salience hypothesis, which states that introducing upfront losses or gains makes the money dimension more salient than not, thus increasing people's preference for LL rewards. Considering that decreasing the discounting of delayed losses is imperative and that most previous studies have focused on intertemporal choices with gains, in the current paper we conducted two experiments and used hypothetical money outcomes to examine whether the effect of upfront money could be extended to intertemporal choices with losses. The results showed that when both SS and LL intertemporal losses were combined with an upfront loss or gain, people's discounting rate decreased and the preference for the SS option increased. This finding further supports the salience account.

  15. Episodic Future Thinking about the Ideal Self Induces Lower Discounting, Leading to a Decreased Tendency toward Cheating.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Wen-Hsiung; Cheng, Wen; Chiou, Wen-Bin

    2017-01-01

    Delay discounting refers to a pervasive tendency toward preferring smaller immediate gains over larger future gains. Recent empirical research has shown that episodic future thinking (EFT; i.e., projecting oneself into the future to pre-experience forthcoming events) can reduce the tendency toward discounting. A common tenet of psychological theories of crime is that delinquency results from focusing on short-term gains while failing to consider adequately the longer-term consequences of delinquent behavior. We investigated whether an EFT intervention involving the ideal self could induce lower discounting rates and, as a consequence, reduced delinquency. The results showed that, compared with control participants, participants engaging in EFT, that is, envisaging life events that would be experienced by their ideal selves, exhibited a lower discounting rate in a monetary choice task (Experiments 1 and 2), as well as a decreased tendency to make delinquent choices in imaginary scenarios (Experiment 1) and cheat in a matrix task (Experiment 2). The discounting tendency mediated the relationship between engaging in EFT pertaining to the ideal self and the tendency toward morally questionable behavior (Experiments 1 and 2). The findings of the two experiments indicate that engagement in EFT with a focus on the ideal self is sufficient to induce lower discounting rates, by promoting consideration of distant costs and thus increasing resistance to delinquent involvement and cheating (given the temptation of the immediate benefits that may accrue from such behavior). The current research constitutes an innovative approach to delinquency prevention and the promotion of morality.

  16. Delay discounting, impulsiveness, and addiction severity in opioid-dependent patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robles, Elias; Huang, B Emma; Simpson, Pippa M; McMillan, Donald E

    2011-12-01

    Individuals who abuse drugs show higher delay discounting (DD) rate and impulsiveness scores compared with controls; however, it is unclear if DD rate covaries with severity of the addiction or if an individual's discounting rate can be changed by effective substance abuse treatment. This study compared methadone maintenance treatment (MMT) patients (n = 30) who had not used illegal drugs for 2 years with drug-using MMT patients (n = 30) and controls (n = 25) in terms of addiction severity, DD rate, and impulsiveness. Methadone patients abstinent from illegal drugs scored significantly lower on a number of addiction severity measures than the drug-using methadone patients. In addition, both groups of MMT patients showed significantly higher rates of DD and impulsiveness than the control group; however, no differences in DD rate or impulsiveness were found between the groups of patients. Results suggest that DD rate and impulsiveness may not covary with indicators of addiction severity in MMT patients. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  17. Beyond discounting: possible experimental models of impulse control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monterosso, J; Ainslie, G

    1999-10-01

    Animal studies of impulsivity have typically used one of three models: a delay of reward procedure, a differential reinforcement for low rate responding (DRL) procedure, or an autoshaping procedure. In each of these paradigms, we argue, measurement of impulsivity is implicitly or explicitly equated with the effect delay has on the value of reward. The steepness by which delay diminishes value (the temporal discount function) is treated as an index of impulsivity. In order to provide a better analog of human impulsivity, this model needs to be expanded to include the converse of impulsivity - self-control. Through mechanisms such as committing to long range interests before the onset of temptation, or through bundling individual choices into classes of choices that are made at once, human decision-making can often look far less myopic than single trial experiments predict. For people, impulsive behavior may be more often the result of the breakdown of self-control mechanisms than of steep discount functions. Existing animal models of self-control are discussed, and future directions are suggested for psychopharmacological research.

  18. Drinking status but not acute alcohol consumption influences delay discounting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Sally; Attwood, Angela S; Munafò, Marcus R

    2017-09-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the following: (a) the effects of acute alcohol on delay discounting; (b) the effects of drinking status on delayed discounting; and (c) whether these effects differ according to reward type (alcohol vs. money). Heavy and light social alcohol users (n = 96) were randomized to receive either an acute dose of alcohol at 0.4 or 0.6 g/kg or placebo in a between-subjects, double-blind design. Delay discounting of alcohol and monetary rewards was measured using a hyperbolic model, with higher scores indicative of greater delay discounting. ANOVA of discount scores indicated a main effect of reward type, where all participants had higher discount scores for alcohol versus money rewards. A main effect of drinking status was also observed, where heavier drinkers had higher discount scores compared with lighter drinkers. We did not observe a main effect of acute alcohol use on delay discounting or the hypothesized interactions between acute alcohol use and drinking status with reward type. Our data suggest that heavier drinkers discount the value of delayed rewards more steeply than lighter drinkers. Delay discounting may therefore be a promising marker of heavy alcohol consumption in social drinkers. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  19. Testable Implications of Quasi-Hyperbolic and Exponential Time Discounting

    OpenAIRE

    Echenique, Federico; Imai, Taisuke; Saito, Kota

    2014-01-01

    We present the first revealed-preference characterizations of the models of exponential time discounting, quasi-hyperbolic time discounting, and other time-separable models of consumers’ intertemporal decisions. The characterizations provide non-parametric revealed-preference tests, which we take to data using the results of a recent experiment conducted by Andreoni and Sprenger (2012). For such data, we find that less than half the subjects are consistent with exponential discounting, and on...

  20. The effects of the framing of time on delay discounting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeHart, William Brady; Odum, Amy L

    2015-01-01

    We examined the effects of the framing of time on delay discounting. Delay discounting is the process by which delayed outcomes are devalued as a function of time. Time in a titrating delay discounting task is often framed in calendar units (e.g., as 1 week, 1 month, etc.). When time is framed as a specific date, delayed outcomes are discounted less compared to the calendar format. Other forms of framing time; however, have not been explored. All participants completed a titrating calendar unit delay-discounting task for money. Participants were also assigned to one of two delay discounting tasks: time as dates (e.g., June 1st, 2015) or time in units of days (e.g., 5000 days), using the same delay distribution as the calendar delay-discounting task. Time framed as dates resulted in less discounting compared to the calendar method, whereas time framed as days resulted in greater discounting compared to the calendar method. The hyperboloid model fit best compared to the hyperbola and exponential models. How time is framed may alter how participants attend to the delays as well as how the delayed outcome is valued. Altering how time is framed may serve to improve adherence to goals with delayed outcomes. © Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

  1. Impacts of religious semantic priming on an intertemporal discounting task: Response time effects and neural correlates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgan, Jonathan; Clark, Dustin; Tripodis, Yorghos; Halloran, Christopher S; Minsky, April; Wildman, Wesley J; Durso, Raymon; McNamara, Patrick

    2016-08-01

    The purpose of this study is to test the hypothesis that religious primes would influence intertemporal discounting behaviors in neurotypical older adults, but not in participants with Parkinson's disease (PD). Furthermore, we predicted that this priming effect would be related to functional connectivity within neural networks mediating religious cognition, decision-making, reward valuing, and prospection processes. Contrary to past research with young adults, we found a significant positive relationship between religiosity and discounting rates. Religious semantic primes did not reliably shift individual discounting rates. But religious controls did respond more quickly to intertemporal decisions under the religious priming condition than the neutral condition, compared to response time differences among the participants with PD. Differences in response time were significantly associated with functional connectivity between the nucleus accumbens and various regions, including the left anterior cingulate cortex and Brodmann areas 10 and 46 in the right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex. These results suggest that religious primes influence discounting behavior via dopaminergic meso-limbic and right dorsolateral prefrontal supporting cognitive valuation and prospection processes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. How hyperbolic discounting preference affects Chinese consumers’ consumption choice between conventional and electric vehicles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Tian; Shang, Zhe; Tian, Xin; Wang, Shouyang

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a theoretical model and addresses several issues related to life cycle cost analysis to illustrate how time-inconsistent preferences affect consumer choice. The particular case study selects involved consumer choice between a vehicle with high initial acquisition cost but low ownership cost (e.g., an Electric Vehicle, EV) and one with a low initial acquisition cost but high ownership cost (e.g., a conventional Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle, ICEV). To test our theoretical analysis, we conduct an empirical study on how time discounting rates affect consumer choice between ICEVs and EVs with different initial cost ratios. From the survey results, we find that individuals with higher present bias showed irrational purchase behavior even when controlling for wealth level. Specifically, people making some “stronger bias to present” decisions chose higher total cost ICEVs with lower initial cost but higher ownership cost over lower total cost EVs with higher initial cost and lower ownership cost. However, people’s long-term discount is not correlated with irrational vehicle purchase behavior. Furthermore, we study the present bias and long-term discount rate in one scenario and found present bias to be correlated with irrational behavior. - Highlights: • Theoretical model and survey based on psychological experiment are used for study. • Time inconsistency preferences may affect consumers' rational purchasing choice. • Present bias is correlated with irrational behavior, but long-term discount is not.

  3. Positive autobiographical memory retrieval reduces temporal discounting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lempert, Karolina M; Speer, Megan E; Delgado, Mauricio R

    2017-01-01

    Abstract People generally prefer rewards sooner rather than later. This phenomenon, temporal discounting, underlies many societal problems, including addiction and obesity. One way to reduce temporal discounting is to imagine positive future experiences. Since there is overlap in the neural circuitry associated with imagining future experiences and remembering past events, here we investigate whether recalling positive memories can also promote more patient choice. We found that participants were more patient after retrieving positive autobiographical memories, but not when they recalled negative memories. Moreover, individuals were more impulsive after imagining novel positive scenes that were not related to their memories, showing that positive imagery alone does not drive this effect. Activity in the striatum and temporo parietal junction during memory retrieval predicted more patient choice, suggesting that to the extent that memory recall is rewarding and involves perspective-taking, it influences decision-making. Furthermore, representational similarity in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex between memory recall and decision phases correlated with the behavioral effect across participants. Thus, we have identified a novel manipulation for reducing temporal discounting—remembering the positive past—and have begun to characterize the psychological and neural mechanisms behind it. PMID:28655195

  4. Covariance of random stock prices in the Stochastic Dividend Discount Model

    OpenAIRE

    Agosto, Arianna; Mainini, Alessandra; Moretto, Enrico

    2016-01-01

    Dividend discount models have been developed in a deterministic setting. Some authors (Hurley and Johnson, 1994 and 1998; Yao, 1997) have introduced randomness in terms of stochastic growth rates, delivering closed-form expressions for the expected value of stock prices. This paper extends such previous results by determining a formula for the covariance between random stock prices when the dividends' rates of growth are correlated. The formula is eventually applied to real market data.

  5. The economic feasibility of price discounts to improve diet in Australian Aboriginal remote communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magnus, Anne; Moodie, Marj L; Ferguson, Megan; Cobiac, Linda J; Liberato, Selma C; Brimblecombe, Julie

    2016-04-01

    To estimate the cost-effectiveness of fiscal measures applied in remote community food stores for Aboriginal Australians. Six price discount strategies on fruit, vegetables, diet drinks and water were modelled. Baseline diet was measured as 12 months' actual food sales data in three remote Aboriginal communities. Discount-induced changes in food purchases were based on published price elasticity data while the weight of the daily diet was assumed constant. Dietary change was converted to change in sodium and energy intake, and body mass index (BMI) over a 12-month period. Improved lifetime health outcomes, modelled for the remote population of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders, were converted to disability adjusted life years (DALYs) saved using a proportional multistate lifetable model populated with diet-related disease risks and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander rates of disease. While dietary change was small, five of the six price discount strategies were estimated as cost-effective, below a $50,000/DALY threshold. Stakeholders are committed to finding ways to reduce important inequalities in health status between Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders and non-Indigenous Australians. Price discounts offer potential to improve Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander health. Verification of these results by trial-based research coupled with consideration of factors important to all stakeholders is needed. © 2015 The Authors.

  6. Supply Chain Coordination under Trade Credit and Quantity Discount with Sales Effort Effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhihong Wang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to investigate the role of trade credit and quantity discount in supply chain coordination when the sales effort effect on market demand is considered. In this paper, we consider a two-echelon supply chain consisting of a single retailer ordering a single product from a single manufacturer. Market demand is stochastic and is influenced by retailer sales effort. We formulate an analytical model based on a single trade credit and find that the single trade credit cannot achieve the perfect coordination of the supply chain. Then, we develop a hybrid quantitative analytical model for supply chain coordination by coherently integrating incentives of trade credit and quantity discount with sales effort effects. The results demonstrate that, providing that the discount rate satisfies certain conditions, the proposed hybrid model combining trade credit and quantity discount will be able to effectively coordinate the supply chain by motivating retailers to exert their sales effort and increase product order quantity. Furthermore, the hybrid quantitative analytical model can provide great flexibility in coordinating the supply chain to achieve an optimal situation through the adjustment of relevant parameters to resolve conflict of interests from different supply chain members. Numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the hybrid model.

  7. Shallow discounting of delayed cocaine by male rhesus monkeys when immediate food is the choice alternative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huskinson, Sally L; Myerson, Joel; Green, Leonard; Rowlett, James K; Woolverton, William L; Freeman, Kevin B

    2016-12-01

    Huskinson et al. (2015) recently examined delay discounting in monkeys choosing between an immediate drug (cocaine) reinforcer and a delayed nondrug (food) reinforcer. The present experiment examined the reverse situation: choice between immediate nondrug (food) and delayed drug (cocaine) reinforcers. Whereas the former choice situation exemplifies drug abuse from a delay-discounting perspective, our interest in the latter choice situation is derived from the observation that drug abusers, who characteristically are associated with impulsive choice, typically must devote considerable time to procuring drugs, often at the expense of immediate nondrug alternatives. Accordingly, we analyzed 3 male rhesus monkeys' choices between immediate food and delayed cocaine (0.1 and 0.2 mg/kg/injection) using a hyperbolic model that allowed us to compare discounting rates between qualitatively different reinforcers. Choice of immediate food increased with food amount, and choice functions generally shifted leftward as delay to cocaine increased, indicating a decrease in the subjective value of cocaine. Compared with our previous delay-discounting experiment with immediate cocaine versus delayed food, both doses of delayed cocaine were discounted at a shallow rate. The present results demonstrate that rhesus monkeys will tolerate relatively long delays in an immediate-food versus delayed-drug situation, suggesting that in intertemporal choices between cocaine and food, the subjective value of cocaine is less affected by the delay until reinforcement than is the subjective value of delayed food. More generally, the present findings suggest that although drug abusers may choose impulsively when immediate drug reinforcement is available, they exercise self-control in the acquisition of a highly preferred, delayed drug reinforcer. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  8. Parabolic discounting of monetary rewards by physical effort

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hartmann, M.N.; Hager, O.M.; Tobler, P.N.; Kaiser, S.

    2013-01-01

    When humans and other animals make decisions in their natural environments prospective rewards have to be weighed against costs. It is well established that increasing costs lead to devaluation or discounting of reward. While our knowledge about discount functions for time and probability costs is

  9. Zero discounting can compensate future generations for climate damage

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Davidson, M.D.

    2014-01-01

    In cost-benefit analysis of climate policy there are two main approaches to discounting, each with implications conflicting with our moral intuitions. Thus, discounted utilitarianism implies that we hardly need to protect future generations against climate change, while classical utilitarianism

  10. Internet Addiction and Delay Discounting in College Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saville, Bryan K.; Gisbert, Amanda; Kopp, Jason; Telesco, Carolyn

    2010-01-01

    To examine the relation between Internet addiction and delay discounting, we gave 276 college students a survey designed to measure Internet addiction and a paper-based delay-discounting task. In our larger sample, we identified 14 students who met the criteria for Internet addiction; we also identified 14 matched controls who were similar to the…

  11. Brain Structure Linking Delay Discounting and Academic Performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Song; Kong, Feng; Zhou, Ming; Chen, Taolin; Yang, Xun; Chen, Guangxiang; Gong, Qiyong

    2017-08-01

    As a component of self-discipline, delay discounting refers to the ability to wait longer for preferred rewards and plays a pivotal role in shaping students' academic performance. However, the neural basis of the association between delay discounting and academic performance remains largely unknown. Here, we examined the neuroanatomical substrates underlying delay discounting and academic performance in 214 adolescents via voxel-based morphometry (VBM) by performing structural magnetic resonance imaging (S-MRI). Behaviorally, we confirmed the significant correlation between delay discounting and academic performance. Neurally, whole-brain regression analyses indicated that regional gray matter volume (rGMV) of the left dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) was associated with both delay discounting and academic performance. Furthermore, delay discounting partly accounted for the association between academic performance and brain structure. Differences in the rGMV of the left DLPFC related to academic performance explained over one-third of the impact of delay discounting on academic performance. Overall, these results provide the first evidence for the common neural basis linking delay discounting and academic performance. Hum Brain Mapp 38:3917-3926, 2017. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  12. The Students Decision Making in Solving Discount Problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdillah; Nusantara, Toto; Subanji; Susanto, Hery; Abadyo

    2016-01-01

    This research is reviewing students' process of decision making intuitively, analytically, and interactively. The research done by using discount problem which specially created to explore student's intuition, analytically, and interactively. In solving discount problems, researcher exploring student's decision in determining their attitude which…

  13. Delay and probability discounting among payday and title loan recipients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahoney, Colin T; Lawyer, Steven R

    2016-04-01

    Payday and title loans are short-term loans associated with significant economic impact. Behavioral theories of impulsive choice may provide insight into behavioral processes that underlie the propensity to take out payday and title loans. Adults between the ages of 18 and 30 recruited from the community completed delay and probability discounting tasks for hypothetical money as well as measures of substance use. Patterns of discounting were characterized using a hyperbolic decay model and area under the curve. Participants who took out a payday and/or title loan in the past (n=41) exhibited more impulsive choice patterns on the delay discounting task than did those who did not (n=255). Substance use mediated this relationship between payday and title loan retention and delay discounting. These findings suggest potentially important relationships between payday/title loan borrowing, substance use, and delay discounting. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Dividend growth, cash flow, and discount rate news

    OpenAIRE

    Garrett, Ian; Priestley, Richard

    2012-01-01

    This is the authors’ accepted and refereed manuscript to the article. Publishers web site http://journals.cambridge.org/ Using a new variable based on a model of dividend smoothing, we find that dividend growth is highly predictable and that cash flow news contributes importantly to return variability. Cash flow betas derived from this predictability are central to explaining the size effect in the cross section of returns. However, they do not explain the value effect; this is explained b...

  15. WORK COMPETENCES AT WESTERN BANK DISCOUNT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haidee Coste

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The research aimed to identify the generic work competences in the staff of the Vice Presidency of Compensation and Development of the Western Bank Discount. Authors were consulted such as Alles (2008, Tobon (2006 and Hay Group (2004, among others. The research is descriptive, non-experimental, transactional and field design. The population consisted of twelve (12 subjects belonging to the vice presidency. It was applied a questionnaire of thirty (30 items, validated by the trial of three (3 experts, with 0.92 reliability by Cronbach alpha coefficient.  It is concluded the employees of the vice presidency have a high level of the generic work competences customer focus, teamwork, effective communication, innovation, emotional intelligence and making decisions. It is strength for the institution, because staff with those competences contributes doing the best for the development of the institution.

  16. Valuing companies by cash flow discounting: Ten methods and nine theories

    OpenAIRE

    Fernández , Pablo

    2002-01-01

    This paper is a summarized compendium of all the methods and theories on company valuation using cash flow discounting. The paper shows the ten most commonly used methods for valuing companies by cash flow discounting: 1) free cash flow discounted at the WACC; 2) equity cash flows discounted at the required return to equity; 3) capital cash flows discounted at the WACC before tax; 4) APV (Adjusted Present Value); 5) the business's risk-adjusted free cash flows discounted at the required retur...

  17. Equivalence of the different discounted cash flow valuation methods. Different alternatives for determining the discounted value of tax shields and their implications for the valuation

    OpenAIRE

    Fernández, Pablo

    1999-01-01

    This paper addresses the valuation of firms by cash flow discounting. The first part shows that the four most commonly used discounted cash flow valuation methods (free cash flow discounted at the WACC; cash flow available for equity holders discounted at the required return on the equity flows; capital cash flow discounted at the WACC before taxes; and Adjusted Present Value) always give the same value. This result is logical because all the methods analyse the same reality under the same hy...

  18. Discounting human lives: Uranium and global equity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goldman, B.A.

    1993-01-01

    Long-term, global environmental health risks complicate efforts to evaluate the efficiency and equity of economic activities from a public welfare perspective. This study sets out a practical framework based on the theory of neoclassical welfare economics for evaluating whether an economic activity yields such inefficient or inequitable net effects to justify government intervention from a variety of decision-making perspectives. It applies this empirical approach to the case of public policies that encouraged uranium production (the mining, milling, and refining of uranium ore) near Elliot Lake and Blind River in Northern Ontario. The analysis tests the two-fold hypothesis that if future negative externalities of production are considered along with past net effects, the these policies result in (1) an inefficient allocation of economic resources according to the potential Pareto criterion, and (2) an inequitable distribution of impacts according to Rawls' maximin criterion. The analytical framework to test these hypotheses has three parts: Risk-cost-benefit analysis, distributions analysis, and efficiency and equity analysis. Quantitative impacts are derived from empirical estimates of cost and benefit streams during 1956 to 1990, and modelled future cancer death costs. Net effects are aggregated to nine observations across three dimensions: Geographic, intergenerational, and social. Qualitative observations are provided about the boom-and-bust uranium economy, environmental burdens, and other unquantifiable impacts. The results illustrate how underlying normative assumptions overwhelm other aspects of efficiency and equity analyses of long-term, global environmental changes. These assumptions appear in discounting equations that ultimately derive from a priori allocations of rights to natural assets and corollary duties to protect such rights. More than two-thirds of the discounting scenarios yield inefficient outcomes and over ninety percent are inequitable

  19. Cognitive decline is associated with risk aversion and temporal discounting in older adults without dementia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bryan D James

    Full Text Available Risk aversion and temporal discounting are preferences that are strongly linked to sub-optimal financial and health decision making ability. Prior studies have shown they differ by age and cognitive ability, but it remains unclear whether differences are due to age-related cognitive decline or lower cognitive abilities over the life span. We tested the hypothesis that cognitive decline is associated with higher risk aversion and temporal discounting in 455 older persons without dementia from the Memory and Aging Project, a longitudinal cohort study of aging in Chicago. All underwent repeated annual cognitive evaluations using a detailed battery including 19 tests. Risk aversion was measured using standard behavioral economics questions: participants were asked to choose between a certain monetary payment versus a gamble in which they could gain more or nothing; potential gamble gains varied across questions. Temporal discounting: participants were asked to choose between an immediate, smaller payment and a delayed, larger one; two sets of questions addressed small and large stakes based on payment amount. Regression analyses were used to examine whether prior rate of cognitive decline predicted level of risk aversion and temporal discounting, controlling for age, sex, and education. Over an average of 5.5 (SD=2.9 years, cognition declined at an average of 0.016 units per year (SD=0.03. More rapid cognitive decline predicted higher levels of risk aversion (p=0.002 and temporal discounting (small stakes: p=0.01, high stakes: p=0.006. Further, associations between cognitive decline and risk aversion (p=0.015 and large stakes temporal discounting (p=0.026 persisted in analyses restricted to persons without any cognitive impairment (i.e., no dementia or mild cognitive impairment; the association of cognitive decline and small stakes temporal discounting was no longer statistically significant (p=0.078. These findings are consistent with the

  20. Cognitive decline is associated with risk aversion and temporal discounting in older adults without dementia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, Bryan D; Boyle, Patricia A; Yu, Lei; Han, S Duke; Bennett, David A

    2015-01-01

    Risk aversion and temporal discounting are preferences that are strongly linked to sub-optimal financial and health decision making ability. Prior studies have shown they differ by age and cognitive ability, but it remains unclear whether differences are due to age-related cognitive decline or lower cognitive abilities over the life span. We tested the hypothesis that cognitive decline is associated with higher risk aversion and temporal discounting in 455 older persons without dementia from the Memory and Aging Project, a longitudinal cohort study of aging in Chicago. All underwent repeated annual cognitive evaluations using a detailed battery including 19 tests. Risk aversion was measured using standard behavioral economics questions: participants were asked to choose between a certain monetary payment versus a gamble in which they could gain more or nothing; potential gamble gains varied across questions. Temporal discounting: participants were asked to choose between an immediate, smaller payment and a delayed, larger one; two sets of questions addressed small and large stakes based on payment amount. Regression analyses were used to examine whether prior rate of cognitive decline predicted level of risk aversion and temporal discounting, controlling for age, sex, and education. Over an average of 5.5 (SD=2.9) years, cognition declined at an average of 0.016 units per year (SD=0.03). More rapid cognitive decline predicted higher levels of risk aversion (p=0.002) and temporal discounting (small stakes: p=0.01, high stakes: p=0.006). Further, associations between cognitive decline and risk aversion (p=0.015) and large stakes temporal discounting (p=0.026) persisted in analyses restricted to persons without any cognitive impairment (i.e., no dementia or mild cognitive impairment); the association of cognitive decline and small stakes temporal discounting was no longer statistically significant (p=0.078). These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that

  1. Supply Chain Model with Stochastic Lead Time, Trade-Credit Financing, and Transportation Discounts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sung Jun Kim

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This model extends a two-echelon supply chain model by considering the trade-credit policy, transportations discount to make a coordination mechanism between transportation discounts, trade-credit financing, number of shipments, quality improvement of products, and reduced setup cost in such a way that the total cost of the whole system can be reduced, where the supplier offers trade-credit-period to the buyer. For buyer, the backorder rate is considered as variable. There are two investments to reduce setup cost and to improve quality of products. The model assumes lead time-dependent backorder rate, where the lead time is stochastic in nature. By using the trade-credit policy, the model gives how the credit-period would be determined to achieve the win-win outcome. An iterative algorithm is designed to obtain the global optimum results. Numerical example and sensitivity analysis are given to illustrate the model.

  2. EOQ model for perishable products with price-dependent demand, pre and post discounted selling price

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santhi, G.; Karthikeyan, K.

    2017-11-01

    In this article we introduce an economic order quantity model for perishable products like vegetables, fruits, milk, flowers, meat, etc.,with price-dependent demand, pre and post discounted selling price. Here we consider the demand is depending on selling price and deterioration rate is constant. Here we developed mathematical model to determine optimal discounton the unit selling price to maximize total profit. Numerical examples are given for illustrated.

  3. Incomplete information and the closed-end fund discount

    OpenAIRE

    Barone-Adesi, Giovanni; Kim, Youngsoo

    2008-01-01

    We model the closed-end fund discount/premium in a version of Merton’s (1978) asset pricing model with incomplete information. In this economy, investors trade only assets which they “ know about” . The model generates a closed-end fund discount or premium, depending on risk-aversion parameters. The fund share price reverts to the net asset value on open-ending of the fund. The discount/premium is a result of two economic forces: (1) the fund manager’s objective is to maximize expected utilit...

  4. Where do we stand on discounts? - A Danish perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bergqvist, Christian

    The dominant undertaking’s ability to award discounts and other loyalty inducing considerations are subject to much ambiguity and many unsettled issues. Despite discounts being a commercial requirement, even for the dominant undertaking, it’s difficult to draw up clear principles, and while...... the approach to non-dominant undertaking’s restriction of competition has been fundamentally recast over the last 20 years, the appraisal of single company behaviour remains more formal and rigid. However, there have recently been indications that some of the same leniency might have been extended to discounts...

  5. Where Do We Stand on Discounts? - A Nordic Perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bastida, Vladimir; Ballebye Okholm, Henrik; Pedersen, Torben

    Dominant undertakings’ ability, under competition law, to award discounts and other loyalty inducing considerations are subject to much ambiguity and unsettled issues. Despite discounts being a commercial requirement, even for the dominant undertaking, it is difficult to draw up clear principles....... to dis-counts and unilateral behaviour and in particular the 2017 Court of Justice rul-ing in Intel has reopened the discussions. The objective of this book is to pro-vide guidance on the matter under EU and Nordic competition law and to align these with economic theory....

  6. Discounting in agro-industrial complex. A methodological proposal for risk premium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Inmaculada Marques-Perez

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The estimation of the discount rate is decisive for a reliable economic valuation. The discount rate has to be adjusted for the risks related to the company, the sector which the company has its market, and the risks related to the investment project. We present a proposal to incorporate the risk premium to the discount rate. The novelty of the methodology is that difference risk groups according to activity as a factor to adjust the cost of capital to companies. The study applies the methodology to the Agro-Industrial Complex (AIC in Spain. The AIC is formed by industries that add value to farming production. This sector’s economic success demands financial management techniques that assess risk. The conventional method responds neither to the heterogeneity of the economic activities that make up the AIC, nor to differentiating risk by groups. The proposed methodology distinguishes activity groups in accordance with the NACE (National Code of Economic Activities and uses net profitability variability to distinguish the risk in each group. Our results demonstrate the various levels of risk per group. The results show that among all the groups that form the AIC there are wide differences between levels of risk; thus, the risk neutral groups present risk levels on the order of 150 times lower than the groups extreme risk levels.

  7. Discounting in agro-industrial complex. A methodological proposal for risk premium

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marques-Perez, I.; Guaita-Pradas, I.; Pérez-Salas, J.L.

    2017-09-01

    The estimation of the discount rate is decisive for a reliable economic valuation. The discount rate has to be adjusted for the risks related to the company, the sector which the company has its market, and the risks related to the investment project. We present a proposal to incorporate the risk premium to the discount rate. The novelty of the methodology is that difference risk groups according to activity as a factor to adjust the cost of capital to companies. The study applies the methodology to the Agro-Industrial Complex (AIC) in Spain. The AIC is formed by industries that add value to farming production. This sector’s economic success demands financial management techniques that assess risk. The conventional method responds neither to the heterogeneity of the economic activities that make up the AIC, nor to differentiating risk by groups. The proposed methodology distinguishes activity groups in accordance with the NACE (National Code of Economic Activities) and uses net profitability variability to distinguish the risk in each group. Our results demonstrate the various levels of risk per group. The results show that among all the groups that form the AIC there are wide differences between levels of risk; thus, the risk neutral groups present risk levels on the order of 150 times lower than the groups extreme risk levels.

  8. Discounting in agro-industrial complex. A methodological proposal for risk premium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marques-Perez, I.; Guaita-Pradas, I.; Pérez-Salas, J.L.

    2017-01-01

    The estimation of the discount rate is decisive for a reliable economic valuation. The discount rate has to be adjusted for the risks related to the company, the sector which the company has its market, and the risks related to the investment project. We present a proposal to incorporate the risk premium to the discount rate. The novelty of the methodology is that difference risk groups according to activity as a factor to adjust the cost of capital to companies. The study applies the methodology to the Agro-Industrial Complex (AIC) in Spain. The AIC is formed by industries that add value to farming production. This sector’s economic success demands financial management techniques that assess risk. The conventional method responds neither to the heterogeneity of the economic activities that make up the AIC, nor to differentiating risk by groups. The proposed methodology distinguishes activity groups in accordance with the NACE (National Code of Economic Activities) and uses net profitability variability to distinguish the risk in each group. Our results demonstrate the various levels of risk per group. The results show that among all the groups that form the AIC there are wide differences between levels of risk; thus, the risk neutral groups present risk levels on the order of 150 times lower than the groups extreme risk levels.

  9. Effects of episodic future thinking on discounting: Personalized age-progressed pictures improve risky long-term health decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, Brent A; Reed, Derek D; Jarmolowicz, David P

    2016-03-01

    Many everyday choices are associated with both delayed and probabilistic outcomes. The temporal attention hypothesis suggests that individuals' decision making can be improved by focusing attention on temporally distal events and implies that environmental manipulations that bring temporally distal outcomes into focus may alter an individual's degree of discounting. One such manipulation, episodic future thinking, has shown to lower discount rates; however, several questions remain about the applicability of episodic future thinking to domains other than delay discounting. The present experiments examine the effects of a modified episodic-future-thinking procedure in which participants viewed age-progressed computer-generated images of themselves and answered questions related to their future, on probability discounting in the context of both a delayed health gain and loss. Results indicate that modified episodic future thinking effectively altered individuals' degree of discounting in the predicted directions and demonstrate the applicability of episodic future thinking to decision making of socially significant outcomes. © 2015 Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

  10. A social discounting model based on Tsallis’ statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takahashi, Taiki

    2010-09-01

    Social decision making (e.g. social discounting and social preferences) has been attracting attention in economics, econophysics, social physics, behavioral psychology, and neuroeconomics. This paper proposes a novel social discounting model based on the deformed algebra developed in the Tsallis’ non-extensive thermostatistics. Furthermore, it is suggested that this model can be utilized to quantify the degree of consistency in social discounting in humans and analyze the relationships between behavioral tendencies in social discounting and other-regarding economic decision making under game-theoretic conditions. Future directions in the application of the model to studies in econophysics, neuroeconomics, and social physics, as well as real-world problems such as the supply of live organ donations, are discussed.

  11. Welcome to professional courtesy discounts: the medical community's pandora's box.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winkler, A D

    1998-01-01

    Recent government regulations on fraud and abuse have transformed the tradition of professional courtesy discounts into a legal minefield threatening to explode on the uninformed medical provider. This paper offers an understanding of the issues involved and provider options.

  12. Online Discount Luxury: In Search of Guilty Customers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dr. Nikolai Ostapenko

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Discount luxury sites mainly serve as online platform for the “flash sales” method, offering limited-time availability of high fashion, travel, home décor, and culinary bargains to its members. The idea of moving “sample sales” online was first realized on a European website, Vente-Privee.com, which now has more than 13 million customers. Following Gilt’s introduction in the United States, flash sales skyrocketed and led to the launching of many new sites, which have proved popular both with consumers seeking impressive discounts on luxury goods, and with exclusive brands wanting to unload their unsold stock quickly. Recently we found that many of the sites are going through the customer fatigue stage, and their further success requires more than just deep discounts. The article reviews possible new business strategies and models within discount luxury retail segment mainly based upon experience of the Gilt Groupe.

  13. Dual discounting in cost-benefit analysis for environmental impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kula, Erhun; Evans, David

    2011-01-01

    Discounting has been a long-established intertemporal efficiency tool in cost-benefit analysis which focuses on project selection at communal level with a view to maximising the social welfare. However, with the relentless growth in environmental stress that, in good parts, stems from investment projects the established criterion in discounting appears to be inadequate especially when environmental issues are taken into consideration. This paper looks at how dual focus on efficiency and sustainability can be achieved by using dual discounting, i.e. discounting environmental benefits separately and differently from other costs and benefits and applies this alternative criterion to an afforestation scheme in the United Kingdom which contains carbon sequestration in addition to timber benefits.

  14. A Rational Model of the Closed-End Fund Discount

    OpenAIRE

    Jonathan Berk; Richard Stanton

    2004-01-01

    The discount on closed-end funds is widely accepted as proof of investor irrationality. We show,however, that a parsimonious rational model can generate a discount that exhibits many of the characteristics observed in practice. The only required features of the model are that managers have (imperfectly observable) ability to generate excess returns; they sign long-term contracts guaranteeing them a fee each year equal to a fixed fraction of assets under management; and they can leave to earn ...

  15. Temporal discounting and emotional self-regulation in children with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Utsumi, Daniel Augusto; Miranda, Mônica Carolina; Muszkat, Mauro

    2016-12-30

    Temporal Discounting (TD) reflects a tendency to discount a reward more deeply the longer its delivery is delayed. TD tasks and behavioral scales have been used to investigate 'hot' executive functions in ADHD. The present study analyzed TD task performance shown by ADHD and control groups for correlations with emotional self-regulation metrics from two scales, the Behavior Rating Inventory of Executive Functions (BRIEF) and the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL). Children (ages 8-12) with ADHD (n=25) and controls (n=24) were assessed using material rewards (toys) for three types of task: Hypothetical (H); Hypothetical with temporal expectation (HTE); and Real (R). Between-group differences were found for the HTE task, on which the ADHD group showed a higher rate of discounting their favorite toy over time, especially at 10s and 20s. This was the only task on which performance significantly correlated with BRIEF metrics, thus suggesting associations between impulsivity and low emotional self-regulation, but no task was correlated with CBCL score. The conclusion is that tasks involving toys and HTE in particular may be used to investigate TD in children with ADHD and as a means of evaluating the interface between the reward system and emotional self-regulation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Impairment in delay discounting in schizophrenia and schizoaffective disorder but not primary mood disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Hannah E; Hart, Kamber L; Snapper, Leslie A; Roffman, Joshua L; Perlis, Roy H

    2018-05-28

    A measure of planning and impulse control, the delay-discounting (DD) task estimates the extent to which an individual decreases the perceived value of a reward as the reward is delayed. We examined cross-disorder performance between healthy controls (n = 88), individuals with bipolar disorder (n = 23), major depressive disorder (n = 43), and primary psychotic disorders (schizophrenia and schizoaffective disorder; n = 51) on the DD task (using a $10 delayed larger reward), as well as the interaction of DD scores with other symptom domains (cognition, psychosis, and affect). We found that individuals with schizophrenia and schizoaffective disorder display significantly greater rates of discounting compared to healthy controls, while individuals with a primary mood disorder do not differ from healthy controls after adjustment for IQ. Further, impairment in working memory is associated with higher discounting rates among individuals with schizophrenia and schizoaffective disorder, but cognitive dysfunction alone does not account for the extent of impairment in DD. Taken together, these results suggest an impaired ability to plan for the future and make adaptive decisions that are specific to individuals with psychotic disorders, and likely related to adverse functional outcomes. More generally, this work demonstrates the presence of variation in impulsivity across major psychiatric illnesses, supporting the use of a trans-diagnostic perspective.

  17. A novel multi-item joint replenishment problem considering multiple type discounts.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ligang Cui

    Full Text Available In business replenishment, discount offers of multi-item may either provide different discount schedules with a single discount type, or provide schedules with multiple discount types. The paper investigates the joint effects of multiple discount schemes on the decisions of multi-item joint replenishment. In this paper, a joint replenishment problem (JRP model, considering three discount (all-unit discount, incremental discount, total volume discount offers simultaneously, is constructed to determine the basic cycle time and joint replenishment frequencies of multi-item. To solve the proposed problem, a heuristic algorithm is proposed to find the optimal solutions and the corresponding total cost of the JRP model. Numerical experiment is performed to test the algorithm and the computational results of JRPs under different discount combinations show different significance in the replenishment cost reduction.

  18. Delay discounting, treatment motivation and treatment retention among substance-dependent individuals attending an in inpatient detoxification program

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stevens, Laura; Verdejo-García, Antonio; Roeyers, Herbert; Goudriaan, Anna E.; Vanderplasschen, Wouter

    2015-01-01

    Recent studies consistently indicate high rates of delay discounting in drug users, which refers to a strong tendency to devaluate delayed rewards. Many addiction treatment programs however, place high demands on the ability to postpone immediate gratification. Therefore, these programs may be

  19. Time discounting and pain anticipation. Experimental evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brañas Garza, Pablo

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with pain anticipation experienced before medical procedures. our experimental results show that individuals with lower time discount factors are more prone to suffer pain in advance. We provide a framework to rationalize the connection between pain anticipation and impatience. in this set up, more impatient subjects, who only value very near events, mainly take into account the present negative effects of medical procedures (the costs, whereas more patient individuals have a net positive valuation of medical events, given that they are able to value both the cost incurred now and all the benefits to be accrued in the future.

    Este artículo trata de la anticipación del dolor experimentada antes de los procedimientos médicos. nuestros resultados experimentales muestran que los individuos con factor de descuento temporal más bajo son más proclives a sufrir dolor por adelantado. el artículo proporciona un marco en el que racionalizar la relación existente entre impaciencia y anticipación del dolor. en este marco, los sujetos más impacientes, que evalúan sólo los eventos muy próximos en el tiempo, focalizan su atención principalmente en los efectos negativos de los procedimientos médicos (sólo los costes, mientras que los individuos más pacientes tienen una valoración neta positiva de los actos médicos puesto que valoran tanto el coste en el que se incurre en el presente como los beneficios que se obtendrán en el futuro.

  20. Intergenerational Justice: How Reasonable Man Discounts Climate Damage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marc D. Davidson

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Moral philosophers and economists have evaluated the intergenerational problem of climate change by applying the whole gamut of theories on distributive justice. In this article, however, it is argued that intergenerational justice cannot imply the application of moral ideal theories to future generations. The formal principle of equality simply requires us to treat like cases as like. If intergenerational justice is to have any meaning, it would require future generations to receive the same treatment under the law and the same treatment from the authorities, as far as cases are like. In the context of climate change, the reasonable man standard from tort law is of particular relevance. There is no justification to handle pollution across generational boundaries according to norms which differ from the (international laws for handling pollution across national borders. It is argued that this implies, for example, that a zero social rate of time preference should be used in cost-benefit analysis of climate policy: climate damage experienced by future generations should be discounted neither for their higher expected wealth, nor purely for their being remote.

  1. I want it and I want it now: using a temporal discounting paradigm to examine predictors of consumer impulsivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dittmar, Helga; Bond, Rod

    2010-11-01

    This paper proposes a new model of consumer impulsivity, using type of good, a person's endorsement of materialistic values, and identity deficits as predictors. Traditional decision making and psychological accounts see impulsive behaviour as a general overweighing of short-term gratification (I want that dress now) relative to longer-term concerns, irrespective of consumer good. Our proposal is that consumers' impulsivity (a) differs according to type of good and (b) is linked systematically to a combination of materialistic values and high identity deficits. Beginning with Study 1, three experiments, using a temporal discounting paradigm, show consistently that discount rates are higher for goods that are seen as highly expressive of identity (e.g., clothes) than goods not expressive of identity (e.g., basic body care products). For materialistic consumers, identity deficits predict discount rates for identity-expressive goods (Study 2), and discount rates change for materialistic individuals when their identity deficits are made salient (Study 3). These findings support a conceptualization of consumer impulsivity as identity-seeking behaviour.

  2. Narrative theory: II. Self-generated and experimenter-provided negative income shock narratives increase delay discounting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mellis, Alexandra M; Snider, Sarah E; Bickel, Warren K

    2018-04-01

    Reading experimenter-provided narratives of negative income shock has been previously demonstrated to increase impulsivity, as measured by discounting of delayed rewards. We hypothesized that writing these narratives would potentiate their effects of negative income shock on decision-making more than simply reading them. In the current study, 193 cigarette-smoking individuals from Amazon Mechanical Turk were assigned to either read an experimenter-provided narrative or self-generate a narrative describing either the negative income shock of job loss or a neutral condition of job transfer. Individuals then completed a task of delay discounting and measures of affective response to narratives, as well as rating various narrative qualities such as personal relevance and vividness. Consistent with past research, narratives of negative income shock increased delay discounting compared to control narratives. No significant differences existed in delay discounting after self-generating compared to reading experimenter-provided narratives. Positive affect was lower and negative affect was higher in response to narratives of job loss, but affect measures did not differ based on whether narratives were experimenter-provided or self-generated. All narratives were rated as equally realistic, but self-generated narratives (whether negative or neutral) were rated as more vivid and relevant than experimenter-provided narratives. These results indicate that the content of negative income shock narratives, regardless of source, consistently drives short-term choices. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  3. Biased and less sensitive: A gamified approach to delay discounting in heroin addiction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scherbaum, Stefan; Haber, Paul; Morley, Kirsten; Underhill, Dylan; Moustafa, Ahmed A

    2018-03-01

    People with addiction will continue to use drugs despite adverse long-term consequences. We hypothesized (a) that this deficit persists during substitution treatment, and (b) that this deficit might be related not only to a desire for immediate gratification, but also to a lower sensitivity for optimal decision making. We investigated how individuals with a history of heroin addiction perform (compared to healthy controls) in a virtual reality delay discounting task. This novel task adds to established measures of delay discounting an assessment of the optimality of decisions, especially in how far decisions are influenced by a general choice bias and/or a reduced sensitivity to the relative value of the two alternative rewards. We used this measure of optimality to apply diffusion model analysis to the behavioral data to analyze the interaction between decision optimality and reaction time. The addiction group consisted of 25 patients with a history of heroin dependency currently participating in a methadone maintenance program; the control group consisted of 25 healthy participants with no history of substance abuse, who were recruited from the Western Sydney community. The patient group demonstrated greater levels of delay discounting compared to the control group, which is broadly in line with previous observations. Diffusion model analysis yielded a reduced sensitivity for the optimality of a decision in the patient group compared to the control group. This reduced sensitivity was reflected in lower rates of information accumulation and higher decision criteria. Increased discounting in individuals with heroin addiction is related not only to a generally increased bias to immediate gratification, but also to reduced sensitivity for the optimality of a decision. This finding is in line with other findings about the sensitivity of addicts in distinguishing optimal from nonoptimal choice options.

  4. Exposure to Sexual Stimuli Induces Greater Discounting Leading to Increased Involvement in Cyber Delinquency Among Men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Wen; Chiou, Wen-Bin

    2018-02-01

    People frequently encounter sexual stimuli during Internet use. Research has shown that stimuli inducing sexual motivation can lead to greater impulsivity in men, as manifested in greater temporal discounting (i.e., a tendency to prefer smaller, immediate gains to larger, future ones). Extant findings in crime research suggest that delinquents tend to focus on short-term gains while failing to adequately think through the longer-term consequences of delinquent behavior. We experimentally tested the possibility that exposure to sexual stimuli is associated with the tendency to engage in cyber delinquency among men, as a result of their overly discounting remote consequences. In Experiment 1, participants exposed to pictures of "sexy" women were more likely to discount the future and were more inclined to make cyber-delinquent choices (e.g., cyberbullying, cyber fraud, cyber theft, and illegal downloading), compared with male participants who rated the sex appeal of less sexy opposite-sex pictures. However, these relationships were not observed in female participants exposed to either highly or less sexy pictures of men. In Experiment 2, male participants exposed to sexual primes showed a greater willingness to purchase a wide range of counterfeit rather than authentic products online and experienced a higher likelihood of logging into the other person's Facebook webpage (i.e., invading online privacy). The discounting tendency mediated the link between exposure to sexual primes and the inclination to engage in cyber-delinquent behavior. These findings provide insight into a strategy for reducing men's involvement in cyber delinquency; that is, through less exposure to sexual stimuli and promotion of delayed gratification. The current results suggest that the high availability of sexual stimuli in cyberspace may be more closely associated with men's cyber-delinquent behavior than previously thought.

  5. THE SECULAR INFLUENCE OF THE RATE OF REFERENCE ON THE ECONOMIC POLICIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emilian M.DOBRESCU

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available Having as starting point Radu Stoenescu’s book with respect to discount, and the difficulty in defining discount, we pursue to clarify this category and other associated ones, such as reference rate, discount rate, re-discount and its rate, in a historical and actual approach. The purpose is to demonstrate that the monetary policy about discount influences the economic policies and that is why it must be altered and guided in accordance with the changes of current economic-financial activity.

  6. Maximizing the Spread of Influence via Generalized Degree Discount.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiaojie; Zhang, Xue; Zhao, Chengli; Yi, Dongyun

    2016-01-01

    It is a crucial and fundamental issue to identify a small subset of influential spreaders that can control the spreading process in networks. In previous studies, a degree-based heuristic called DegreeDiscount has been shown to effectively identify multiple influential spreaders and has severed as a benchmark method. However, the basic assumption of DegreeDiscount is not adequate, because it treats all the nodes equally without any differences. To consider a general situation in real world networks, a novel heuristic method named GeneralizedDegreeDiscount is proposed in this paper as an effective extension of original method. In our method, the status of a node is defined as a probability of not being influenced by any of its neighbors, and an index generalized discounted degree of one node is presented to measure the expected number of nodes it can influence. Then the spreaders are selected sequentially upon its generalized discounted degree in current network. Empirical experiments are conducted on four real networks, and the results show that the spreaders identified by our approach are more influential than several benchmark methods. Finally, we analyze the relationship between our method and three common degree-based methods.

  7. Comment 2 on workshop in economics - issues in benefit-cost analysis: Amplification channels and discounting long-term environmental damages

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanson, D.A.

    1992-01-01

    Many environmental problems have long-term effects. Acid rain has long-term effects on soils, forests, and exposed materials. Global climate change has even longer-term effects. This difference in timing - between the near-term cost of environmental protection and the long-term environmental effects - makes it difficult to conduct a cost-benefit analysis of any program designed to abate environmental damages. The rate at which to discount long-term environmental damages becomes a key question in comparisons of benefits and costs. This comment points out an important facet of the discounting issue. The discount rate for calculating the present value of future environmental benefits may be much lower than the rate of return on investment. Cost-benefit analysis is a framework in which to evaluate policies and decisions. Because global climate change is a complex problem, extensions of cost-benefit theory can be expected to add additional insights, particularly in the following areas: distinguishing distributional effects among nations, over time, and among generations; determining the rate of discount that is appropriate for long-term environmental damages and separating risk aspects from the rate of discount; and assessing amplification effects when policies involve large expenditures relative to the economy or when affected sectors are significant sectors of the economy

  8. Discount factor in planning decision of electric sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Becker, J.L.; Maurer, L.T.A.

    1990-01-01

    Researchers and technicians have been giving a lot of attention to the issue of discount factor in planning in the electric sector. In this paper we review the most important points under consideration, attempting to broaden the discussion and stimulate the creativity of the technicians involved with the sector. There appears to be an emerging consensus that the discount factor to be used must consider the capital costs associated with the main financial sources utilized. The traditional factor of 10% per year must be re-evaluated and augmented, in order to best reflect long range economical and financial conditions. The paper emphasizes the importance of the discount factor to several decisions made within the sector, including energy conservation. Because of the relevance of the topic to Brazil future, we strongly suggest the utilization of sensitivity analysis techniques. (author)

  9. Life Insurance and Annuity Demand under Hyperbolic Discounting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Siqi Tang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we analyse and construct a lifetime utility maximisation model with hyperbolic discounting. Within the model, a number of assumptions are made: complete markets, actuarially fair life insurance/annuity is available, and investors have time-dependent preferences. Time dependent preferences are in contrast to the usual case of constant preferences (exponential discounting. We find: (1 investors (realistically demand more life insurance after retirement (in contrast to the standard model, which showed strong demand for life annuities, and annuities are rarely purchased; (2 optimal consumption paths exhibit a humped shape (which is usually only found in incomplete markets under the assumptions of the standard model.

  10. The effect of future time perspective on delay discounting is mediated by the gray matter volume of vmPFC.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Yiqun; Chen, Zhiyi; Feng, Tingyong

    2017-07-28

    Although several previous studies have shown that individuals' attitude towards time could affect their intertemporal preference, little is known about the neural basis of the relation between time perspective (TP) and delay discounting. In the present study, we quantified the gray matter (GM) cortical volume using voxel-based morphometry (VBM) methods to investigate the effect of TP on delay discounting (DD) across two independent samples. For group 1 (102 healthy college students; 46 male; 20.40 ± 1.87 years), behavioral results showed that only Future TP was a significant predictor of DD, and higher scores on Future TP were related to lower discounting rates. Whole-brain analysis revealed that steeper discounting correlated with greater GM volume in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) and ventral part of posterior cingulate cortex (vPCC). Also, GM volume of a cluster in the vmPFC was correlated with Future TP. Interestingly, there was an overlapping region in vmPFC that was correlated with both DD and Future TP. Region-of-interest analysis further indicated that the overlapping region of vmPFC played a partially mediating role in the relation between Future TP and DD in the other independent dataset (Group 2, 36 healthy college students; 14 male; 20.18±1.80 years). Taken together, our results provide a new perspective from neural basis for explaining the relation between DD and future TP. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Estimating the Impact of Raising Prices and Eliminating Discounts on Cigarette Smoking Prevalence in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marynak, Kristy L; Xu, Xin; Wang, Xu; Holmes, Carissa Baker; Tynan, Michael A; Pechacek, Terry

    2016-01-01

    The average retail price per pack of cigarettes is less than $6, which is substantially lower than the $10 per-pack target established in 2014 by the Surgeon General to reduce the smoking rate. We estimated the impact of three cigarette pricing scenarios on smoking prevalence among teens aged 12-17 years, young adults aged 18-25 years, and adults aged ≥26 years, by state: (1) $0.94 federal tax increase on cigarettes, as proposed in the fiscal year 2017 President's budget; (2) $10 per-pack retail price, allowing discounts; and (3) $10 per-pack retail price, eliminating discounts. We conducted Monte Carlo simulations to generate point estimates of reductions in cigarette smoking prevalence by state. We found that each price scenario would substantially reduce cigarette smoking prevalence. A $10 per-pack retail price eliminating discounts could result in 637,270 fewer smokers aged 12-17 years; 4,186,954 fewer smokers aged 18-25 years; and 7,722,460 fewer smokers aged ≥26 years. Raising cigarette prices and eliminating discounts could substantially reduce cigarette smoking prevalence as well as smoking-related death and disease.

  12. Withdrawal-Related Changes in Delay Discounting Predict Short-Term Smoking Abstinence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miglin, Rickie; Kable, Joseph W; Bowers, Maureen E; Ashare, Rebecca L

    2017-06-01

    Impulsive decision making is associated with smoking behavior and reflects preferences for smaller, immediate rewards and intolerance of temporal delays. Nicotine withdrawal may alter impulsive decision making and time perception. However, little is known about whether withdrawal-related changes in decision making and time perception predict smoking relapse. Forty-five smokers (14 female) completed two laboratory sessions, one following 24-hour abstinence and one smoking-as-usual (order counterbalanced; biochemically verified abstinence). During each visit, participants completed measures of time perception, decision making (ie, discount rates), craving, and withdrawal. Following the second laboratory session, subjects underwent a well-validated model of short-term abstinence (quit week) with small monetary incentives for each day of biochemically confirmed abstinence. Smokers significantly overestimated time during abstinence, compared to smoking-as-usual (p = .021), but there were no abstinence effects on discount rates (p = .6). During the quit week, subjects were abstinent for 3.5 days (SD = 2.15) and smoked a total of 12.9 cigarettes (SD = 15.8). Importantly, higher discount rates (ie, preferences for immediate rewards) during abstinence (abstinence minus smoking difference score) predicted greater number of days abstinent (p = .01) and fewer cigarettes smoked during the quit week (p = .02). Withdrawal-related change in time reproduction did not predict relapse (p = .2). These data suggest that individuals who have a greater preference for immediate rewards during abstinence (vs. smoking-as-usual) may be more successful at maintaining short-term abstinence when provided with frequent (eg, daily) versus less frequent incentive schedules (eg, 1 month). Abstinence-induced changes in decision making may be important for identifying smokers who may benefit from interventions that incentivize abstinence such as contingency management (CM). The present results

  13. A comparison of probability of ruin and expected discounted utility ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Individuals in defined-contribution retirement funds currently have a number of options as to how to finance their post-retirement spending. The paper considers the ranking of selected annuitisation strategies by the probability of ruin and by expected discounted utility under different scenarios. 'Ruin' is defined as occurring ...

  14. Deriving the Dividend Discount Model in the Intermediate Microeconomics Class

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norman, Stephen; Schlaudraff, Jonathan; White, Karianne; Wills, Douglas

    2013-01-01

    In this article, the authors show that the dividend discount model can be derived using the basic intertemporal consumption model that is introduced in a typical intermediate microeconomics course. This result will be of use to instructors who teach microeconomics to finance students in that it demonstrates the value of utility maximization in…

  15. Age Differences in Future Orientation and Delay Discounting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinberg, Laurence; Graham, Sandra; O'Brien, Lia; Woolard, Jennifer; Cauffman, Elizabeth; Banich, Marie

    2009-01-01

    Age differences in future orientation are examined in a sample of 935 individuals between 10 and 30 years using a delay discounting task as well as a new self-report measure. Younger adolescents consistently demonstrate a weaker orientation to the future than do individuals aged 16 and older, as reflected in their greater willingness to accept a…

  16. 24 CFR 201.13 - Interest and discount points.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    .... Interest on the loan shall accrue from the date of the loan, and shall be calculated on a simple interest... 24 Housing and Urban Development 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Interest and discount points. 201... TITLE I PROPERTY IMPROVEMENT AND MANUFACTURED HOME LOANS Loan and Note Provisions § 201.13 Interest and...

  17. MODERN INDICATORS DERIVED FROM VALUE CREATION AND DISCOUNTED

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cican Simona

    2013-07-01

    In this article, we will present the connection between discounted cash flow methods and the indicators derived from value creation, based on the business finance theory, which says that firm value will increase if projects with positive net present value are accepted, while it will be destroyed if projects with negative net present value are accepted.

  18. Relation between Time Perspective and Delay Discounting: A Literature Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teuscher, Ursina; Mitchell, Suzanne H.

    2011-01-01

    In this article, we examine the relation between delay discounting and future time perspective by reviewing how these concepts have been measured and quantified in order to assess their conceptual similarities. The extent to which the different measures are empirically related is reviewed by describing studies that have assessed both constructs…

  19. Gender-Specific Effects of Cognitive Load on Social Discounting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strombach, Tina; Margittai, Zsofia; Gorczyca, Barbara; Kalenscher, Tobias

    2016-01-01

    We live busy, social lives, and meeting the challenges of our complex environments puts strain on our cognitive systems. However, cognitive resources are limited. It is unclear how cognitive load affects social decision making. Previous findings on the effects of cognitive load on other-regarding preferences have been ambiguous, allowing no coherent opinion whether cognitive load increases, decreases or does not affect prosocial considerations. Here, we suggest that social distance between individuals modulates whether generosity towards a recipient increases or decreases under cognitive load conditions. Participants played a financial social discounting task with several recipients at variable social distance levels. In this task, they could choose between generous alternatives, yielding medium financial rewards for the participant and recipient at variable social distances, or between a selfish alternative, yielding larger rewards for the participant alone. We show that the social discount function of male participants was significantly flattened under high cognitive load conditions, suggesting they distinguished less between socially close and socially distant recipients. Unexpectedly, the cognitive-load effect on social discounting was gender-specific: while social discounting was strongly dependent on cognitive load in men, women were nearly unaffected by cognitive load manipulations. We suggest that cognitive load leads men, but not women to simplify the decision problem by neglecting the social distance information. We consider our study a good starting point for further experiments exploring the role of gender in prosocial choice.

  20. Market and Impact Study Setting Up MMX Discount Store

    OpenAIRE

    Sabina Irimie; Andreea Ionică; Virginia Băleanu; Cristina Osvath

    2008-01-01

    The paper is focused on the following elements of the impact study’s content: social and economic features of the area and the social, economic and commercial impact. Currently we witness the materialisation of the research’s results by setting up such a store MMX DISCOUNT in the town of Vulcan from the Jiu Valley

  1. College Students Discount Money "Won" More than Money "Owed"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weatherly, Jeffrey N.; Derenne, Adam; Terrell, Heather K.

    2010-01-01

    Evidence in the research literature indicates people may treat "won" money differently than they would their own money. The present study had a sample of 648 college students complete a delay-discounting task that involved the hypothetical monetary amounts of $1,000 or $100,000. Participants were asked repeatedly what amount they would…

  2. Special discount to the members of the Staff Association

    CERN Multimedia

    Association du personnel

    2012-01-01

    FNAC 5% discount on gifts card available in four Swiss shops without any restriction. Gifts card on sale to the Staff Association Secretariat. TPG 50 CHF discount on annual subscriptions. Subscription « tout Genève » for adult: 650 CHF; for junior: 400 CHF. On sale to the Staff Association Secretariat. Théâtre de Carouge Discount of 5.-CHF for all shows (30.– CHF instead of 35.-CHF) and on season tickets « first performance » ( 132.– CHF instead 162.– CHF) and also on « classical » ( 150.– CHF instead of 180.– CHF) upon presentation of your Staff Association membership card before payment. Aquaparc Discounted prices on admission of whole day. Children from 5 to 15 years: 30.-CHF instead of 39.-CHF; Adults from 16 years: 36.-CHF instead of 49.-CHF. Tickets on sale to the Staff Association Secretariat. Go Sport 15% off on all purchases in the whole shop upon present...

  3. An Examination of The Transdiagnostic Role of Delay Discounting in Psychological Inflexibility and Mental Health Problems

    OpenAIRE

    Levin, Michael; Haeger, Jack; Ong, Clarissa W.; Twohig, Michael P.

    2018-01-01

    Delay discounting is a basic behavioral process that has been found to predict addictive behaviors, and more recently, other mental health problems. Acceptance and Commitment Therapy (ACT), is a transdiagnostic treatment that appears to alter delay discounting, possibly through reducing psychological inflexibility. The current study sought to further bridge research on delay discounting and ACT by examining the relation of delay discounting to a broad range of selfreported mental health probl...

  4. Tariff-Mediated Network Effects versus Strategic Discounting: Evidence from German Mobile Telecommunications

    OpenAIRE

    Zucchini, Leon; Claussen, Jörg; Trüg, Moritz

    2013-01-01

    Mobile telecommunication operators routinely charge subscribers lower prices for calls on their own network than for calls to other networks (on-net discounts). Studies on tariff-mediated network effects suggest this is due to large operators using on-net discounts to damage smaller rivals. Alternatively, research on strategic discounting suggests small operators use on-net discounts to advertise with low on-net prices. We test the relative strength of these effects using data on tariff setti...

  5. Generic drug discount programs: are prescriptions being submitted for pharmacy benefit adjudication?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tungol, Alexandra; Starner, Catherine I; Gunderson, Brent W; Schafer, Jeremy A; Qiu, Yang; Gleason, Patrick P

    2012-01-01

      In 2006, pharmacies began offering select generic prescription drugs at discount prices (e.g., $4 for a 30-day supply) through nonmembership and membership programs. As part of the contract in membership generic drug discount programs, the member agrees to forgo submission of the claim to the insurance company. Claims not submitted for insurance adjudication may result in incomplete pharmacy benefit manager (PBM) and health plan data, which could negatively influence adherence reporting and clinical programs. To address potentially missing claims data, the Centers for Medicare Medicaid Services (CMS) encourages Medicare Part D sponsors to incentivize network pharmacies to submit claims directly to the plan for drugs dispensed outside of a member's Part D benefit, unless a member refuses. The extent of PBM and health plan claims capture loss due to generic drug discount programs is unknown. To identify changes in levothyroxine utilizers' prescription claims capture rate following the advent of generic drug discount membership and nonmembership programs. This retrospective concurrent cohort study used claims data from 3.5 million commercially insured members enrolled in health plans located in the central and southern United States with Prime Therapeutics pharmacy benefit coverage. Members were required to be 18 years or older and younger than 60 years as of January 1, 2006, and continuously enrolled from January 1, 2006, through December 31, 2010. Members utilizing generic levothyroxine for at least 120 days during January 1, 2006, through June 30, 2006 (baseline period) from the same pharmacy group with supply on July 1, 2006, were placed into 1 of 3 pharmacy groups: (1) nonmembership (Walmart, Sam's Club, Target, Kroger, City Market, and King Soopers pharmacies), (2) membership (Walgreens, CVS, Albertsons, and Savon pharmacies), or (3) the reference group of all other pharmacies. The index date was defined as July 1, 2006. The levothyroxine claim providing

  6. The role of prospection in steep temporal reward discounting in gambling addiction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonius eWiehler

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Addiction and pathological gambling (PG have been consistently associated with high impulsivity and a steep devaluation of delayed rewards, a process that is known as temporal discounting (TD. Recent studies indicated that enhanced episodic future thinking (EFT results in less impulsive TD in healthy controls (HC. In a separate line of research, it has been suggested that non-linearities in time perception might contribute to reward devaluation during inter-temporal choice. Therefore, in addition to deficits in valuation processes and executive control, impairments in EFT and non-linearities in time perception have been hypothesized to contribute to steep TD in addiction. In this study, we explore such a potential association of impairments in EFT and time perception with steep TD in PG.We investigated 20 PGs and 20 matched HCs. TD was assessed via a standard computerized binary choice task. We measured EFT using a variation of the Autobiographical Memory Interview by Levine et al. (1. Time perception was assessed with a novel task, utilizing a non-linear rating procedure via circle-size adjustments.Groups did not differ in baseline EFT. In both groups, a power law accounted time perception best, and the degree of non-linearity in time perception correlated with discounting across groups. A multiple regression analysis across all predictors and covariates revealed that only group status (PG/HC and depression were significantly associated with discounting behavior such that PG increased TD and depression attenuated TD.Our findings speak against the idea that steep TD in PG is due to a skewed perception of time or impairments in EFT, at least under the present task conditions. The lack of overall group differences in EFT does not rule out the possibility of more complex interactions of EFT and decision-making. These interactions might be diminished in pathological gambling or addiction more generally, when other task configurations are used.

  7. Impulsive social influence increases impulsive choices on a temporal discounting task in young adults.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jodi M Gilman

    Full Text Available Adolescents and young adults who affiliate with friends who engage in impulsive behavior are more likely to engage in impulsive behaviors themselves, and those who associate with prosocial (i.e. more prudent, future oriented peers are more likely to engage in prosocial behavior. However, it is difficult to disentangle the contribution of peer influence vs. peer selection (i.e., whether individuals choose friends with similar traits when interpreting social behaviors. In this study, we combined a novel social manipulation with a well-validated delay discounting task assessing impulsive behavior to create a social influence delay discounting task, in which participants were exposed to both impulsive (smaller, sooner or SS payment and non-impulsive (larger, later or LL payment choices from their peers. Young adults in this sample, n = 51, aged 18-25 had a higher rate of SS choices after exposure to impulsive peer influence than after exposure to non-impulsive peer influence. Interestingly, in highly susceptible individuals, the rate of non-impulsive choices did not increase after exposure to non-impulsive influence. There was a positive correlation between self-reported suggestibility and degree of peer influence on SS choices. These results suggest that, in young adults, SS choices appear to be influenced by the choices of same-aged peers, especially for individuals who are highly susceptible to influence.

  8. Impulsive Social Influence Increases Impulsive Choices on a Temporal Discounting Task in Young Adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilman, Jodi M.; Curran, Max T.; Calderon, Vanessa; Stoeckel, Luke E.; Evins, A. Eden

    2014-01-01

    Adolescents and young adults who affiliate with friends who engage in impulsive behavior are more likely to engage in impulsive behaviors themselves, and those who associate with prosocial (i.e. more prudent, future oriented) peers are more likely to engage in prosocial behavior. However, it is difficult to disentangle the contribution of peer influence vs. peer selection (i.e., whether individuals choose friends with similar traits) when interpreting social behaviors. In this study, we combined a novel social manipulation with a well-validated delay discounting task assessing impulsive behavior to create a social influence delay discounting task, in which participants were exposed to both impulsive (smaller, sooner or SS payment) and non-impulsive (larger, later or LL payment) choices from their peers. Young adults in this sample, n = 51, aged 18–25 had a higher rate of SS choices after exposure to impulsive peer influence than after exposure to non-impulsive peer influence. Interestingly, in highly susceptible individuals, the rate of non-impulsive choices did not increase after exposure to non-impulsive influence. There was a positive correlation between self-reported suggestibility and degree of peer influence on SS choices. These results suggest that, in young adults, SS choices appear to be influenced by the choices of same-aged peers, especially for individuals who are highly susceptible to influence. PMID:24988440

  9. Social interaction anxiety and the discounting of positive interpersonal events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vassilopoulos, Stephanos P; Banerjee, Robin

    2010-10-01

    Recent research has indicated that individuals with social interaction anxiety make biased interpretations of positive social interactions, with greater general apprehension in response to such events and more negative predictions about the future. There has also been some preliminary evidence for a second facet of interpretation bias, namely a failure to accept others' positive reactions at face value, but this has so far not been adequately studied. The present study developed a new measure of this "discounting" dimension and utilized a nonclinical sample of undergraduate students to provide an initial analysis of the scale. Results provide early support for the psychometric properties of our scale, and indicate that discounting mediates the relationship between social interaction anxiety and low positive affect, over and above the previously studied aspect of positive event interpretation bias. The implications for treatment interventions and further research are discussed.

  10. Three residual income valuation methods and discounted cash flow valuation

    OpenAIRE

    Fernandez, Pablo

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we show that the three residual Income models for equity valuation always yield the same value as the Discounted Cash Flow Valuation models. We use three residual income measures: Economic Profit, Economic Value Added (EVA) and Cash Value Added. We also show that economic profit and EVA are different, although Copeland, Koller and Murrin (2000, page 55) say that economic profit is a synonym of EVA. Specifically, we first show that the present value of the Economic Profit discoun...

  11. Watch for pitfalls of discounted cash flow techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chow, C W; McNamee, A H

    1991-04-01

    Discounted cash flow (DCF) techniques can enhance the effectiveness of a healthcare organization's capital budgeting decisions. But a financial manager unaware of common misapplications of DCF techniques may make capital decisions with a hidden bias against long-term projects, an inaccurate evaluation of options, or inappropriate estimations of expected inflation and risk. Social and psychological factors also can impede effective decisions on projects already introduced.

  12. Equivalence of ten different discounted cash flow valuation methods

    OpenAIRE

    Fernandez, Pablo

    2004-01-01

    This paper shows that ten methods of company valuation using discounted cash flows (WACC; equity cash flow; capital cash flow; adjusted present value; residual income; EVA; business's risk-adjusted equity cash flow; business's risk-adjusted free cash flow; risk-free-adjusted equity cash flow; and risk-free-adjusted free cash flow) always give the same value when identical assumptions are used. This result is logical, since all the methods analyze the same reality using the same assumptions; t...

  13. Hippocampus, delay discounting, and vicarious trial-and-error.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bett, David; Murdoch, Lauren H; Wood, Emma R; Dudchenko, Paul A

    2015-05-01

    In decision-making, an immediate reward is usually preferred to a delayed reward, even if the latter is larger. We tested whether the hippocampus is necessary for this form of temporal discounting, and for vicarious trial-and-error at the decision point. Rats were trained on a recently developed, adjustable delay-discounting task (Papale et al. (2012) Cogn Affect Behav Neurosci 12:513-526), which featured a choice between a small, nearly immediate reward, and a larger, delayed reward. Rats then received either hippocampus or sham lesions. Animals with hippocampus lesions adjusted the delay for the larger reward to a level similar to that of sham-lesioned animals, suggesting a similar valuation capacity. However, the hippocampus lesion group spent significantly longer investigating the small and large rewards in the first part of the sessions, and were less sensitive to changes in the amount of reward in the large reward maze arm. Both sham- and hippocampus-lesioned rats showed a greater amount of vicarious trial-and-error on trials in which the delay was adjusted. In a nonadjusting version of the delay discounting task, animals with hippocampus lesions showed more variability in their preference for a larger reward that was delayed by 10 s compared with sham-lesioned animals. To verify the lesion behaviorally, rat were subsequently trained on a water maze task, and rats with hippocampus lesions were significantly impaired compared with sham-lesioned animals. The findings on the delay discounting tasks suggest that damage to the hippocampus may impair the detection of reward magnitude. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  14. Evaluating intergenerational risks: Probabillity adjusted rank-discounted utilitarianism

    OpenAIRE

    Asheim, Geir B.; Zuber, Stéphane

    2015-01-01

    Climate policies have stochastic consequences that involve a great number of generations. This calls for evaluating social risk (what kind of societies will future people be born into) rather than individual risk (what will happen to people during their own lifetimes). As a response we propose and axiomatize probability adjusted rank-discounted critical-level generalized utilitarianism (PARDCLU), through a key axiom that requires that the social welfare order both be ethical and satisfy first...

  15. Hoarders Only Discount Consumables and are More Patient for Money

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian Donald Vickers

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Individuals with hoarding disorder (HD excessively acquire and retain goods while also exhibiting characteristics of impulsivity and addiction. However, HD individuals do not always perform impulsively in experiments, they do not appear interested in money, and they exhibit many features of risk-aversion and future-planning. To examine impulsivity in HD, we compared validated community participants high and low in hoarding tendencies on questionnaire measures of hoarding and impulsivity as well as a standard experimental measure of impulsivity (intertemporal discounting that was modified to compare decisions about money, pens, and snacks. Common discounting effects were replicated. Compared to the low hoarding group, the high hoarding group was more impatient for consumables (pens and snacks but they were more patient for money. This increased patience for money in high hoarding individuals is in contrast to all other studies on discounting in disordered populations, but consistent with the phenomenology of HD. HD does not appear to be driven by a fundamental inability to wait, but rather a specific, potent desire for consumable rewards.

  16. Hoarders Only Discount Consumables and Are More Patient for Money.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vickers, Brian D; Preston, Stephanie D; Gonzalez, Richard; Angott, Andrea M

    2016-01-01

    Individuals with hoarding disorder (HD) excessively acquire and retain goods while also exhibiting characteristics of impulsivity and addiction. However, HD individuals do not always perform impulsively in experiments, they do not appear interested in money, and they exhibit many features of risk-aversion and future-planning. To examine impulsivity in HD, we compared validated community participants high and low in hoarding tendencies on questionnaire measures of hoarding and impulsivity as well as a standard experimental measure of impulsivity (intertemporal discounting) that was modified to compare decisions about money, pens, and snacks. Common discounting effects were replicated. Compared to the low hoarding group, the high hoarding group was more impatient for consumables (pens and snacks) but they were more patient for money. This increased patience for money in high hoarding individuals is in contrast to all other studies on discounting in disordered populations, but consistent with the phenomenology of HD. HD does not appear to be driven by a fundamental inability to wait, but rather a specific, potent desire for consumable rewards.

  17. Dissociable roles of glucocorticoid and noradrenergic activation on social discounting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Margittai, Zsofia; van Wingerden, Marijn; Schnitzler, Alfons; Joëls, Marian; Kalenscher, Tobias

    2018-04-01

    People often exhibit prosocial tendencies towards close kin and friends, but generosity decreases as a function of increasing social distance between donor and recipient, a phenomenon called social discounting. Evidence suggests that acute stress affects prosocial behaviour in general and social discounting in particular. We tested the causal role of the important stress neuromodulators cortisol (CORT) and noradrenaline (NA) in this effect by considering two competing hypotheses. On the one hand, it is possible that CORT and NA act in concert to increase generosity towards socially close others by reducing the aversiveness of the cost component in costly altruism and enhancing the emotional salience of vicarious reward. Alternatively, it is equally plausible that CORT and NA exert dissociable, opposing effects on prosocial behaviour based on prior findings implicating CORT in social affiliation, and NA in aggressive and antagonistic tendencies. We pharmacologically manipulated CORT and NA levels in a sample of men (N = 150) and found that isolated hydrocortisone administration promoted prosocial tendencies towards close others, reflected in an altered social discount function, but this effect was offset by concurrent noradrenergic activation brought about by simultaneous yohimbine administration. These results provide inceptive evidence for causal, opposing roles of these two important stress neuromodulators on prosocial behaviour, and give rise to the possibility that, depending on the neuroendocrine response profile, stress neuromodulator action can foster both tend-and-befriend and fight-or-flight tendencies at the same time. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Dysfunctional Prefrontal Function Is Associated with Impulsivity in People with Internet Gaming Disorder during a Delay Discounting Task

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yifan Wang

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Internet gaming disorder (IGD, defined as the persistent use of online games with ignorance of adverse consequences, has increasingly raised widespread public concerns. This study aimed at elucidating the precise mechanisms underlying IGD by comparing intertemporal decision-making process between 18 IGD participants and 21 matched healthy controls (HCs. Both behavioral and fMRI data were recorded from a delay discounting task. At the behavioral level, the IGD showed a higher discount rate k than HC; and in IGD group, both the reaction time (delay − immediate and the discount rate k were significantly positively correlated with the severity of IGD. At the neural level, the IGD exhibited reduced brain activations in the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and bilateral inferior frontal gyrus compared to HC during performing delay trials relative to immediate ones. Taken together, the results suggested that IGD showed deficits in making decisions and tended to pursuit immediate satisfaction. The underlying mechanism arises from the deficient ability in evaluating between delayed reward and immediate satisfaction, and the impaired ability in impulse inhibition, which may be associated with the dysfunction of the prefrontal activation. These might be the reason why IGD continue playing online games in spite of facing severe negative consequences.

  19. Dysfunctional Prefrontal Function Is Associated with Impulsivity in People with Internet Gaming Disorder during a Delay Discounting Task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yifan; Hu, Yanbo; Xu, Jiaojing; Zhou, Hongli; Lin, Xiao; Du, Xiaoxia; Dong, Guangheng

    2017-01-01

    Internet gaming disorder (IGD), defined as the persistent use of online games with ignorance of adverse consequences, has increasingly raised widespread public concerns. This study aimed at elucidating the precise mechanisms underlying IGD by comparing intertemporal decision-making process between 18 IGD participants and 21 matched healthy controls (HCs). Both behavioral and fMRI data were recorded from a delay discounting task. At the behavioral level, the IGD showed a higher discount rate k than HC; and in IGD group, both the reaction time (delay - immediate) and the discount rate k were significantly positively correlated with the severity of IGD. At the neural level, the IGD exhibited reduced brain activations in the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and bilateral inferior frontal gyrus compared to HC during performing delay trials relative to immediate ones. Taken together, the results suggested that IGD showed deficits in making decisions and tended to pursuit immediate satisfaction. The underlying mechanism arises from the deficient ability in evaluating between delayed reward and immediate satisfaction, and the impaired ability in impulse inhibition, which may be associated with the dysfunction of the prefrontal activation. These might be the reason why IGD continue playing online games in spite of facing severe negative consequences.

  20. Discount cosmetic surgery: industry trends and strategies for success.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krieger, Lloyd M

    2002-08-01

    Discount cosmetic surgery is a topic of interest to plastic surgeons. To understand this trend and its effects on plastic surgeons, it is necessary to review the economics of cosmetic surgery, plastic surgery's practice environment, and the broader business principles of service industries. Recent work looked at the economics of the plastic surgery market. This analysis demonstrated that increased local density of plastic surgeons was associated with lower adjusted fees for cosmetic procedures. A survey of plastic surgeons about their practice environment revealed that 93 percent categorized the majority of their patients as very or moderately price-sensitive. Fully 98 percent described their business climate as very or moderately competitive and most plastic surgeons thought they lost a sizable number of cosmetic patients within the last year for reasons of price.A standard industry analysis, when applied to cosmetic surgery, reveals the following: an increased number of surgeons leads to lower fees (reducing their bargaining power as suppliers), patients are price-sensitive (increasing their bargaining power as buyers), and there are few barriers to entry among providers (allowing potential new entrants into the market). Such a situation is conducive to discounting taking hold-and even becoming the industry norm. In this environment, business strategy dictates there are three protocols for success: discounting, differentiation, and focus. Discounting joins the trend toward cutting fees. Success comes from increasing volume and efficiency and thus preserving profits. Differentiation creates an industrywide perception of uniqueness; this requires broadly positioning plastic surgeons as holders of a distinct brand identity separate from other "cosmetic surgeons." The final strategy is to focus on a particular buyer group to develop a market niche, such as establishing a "Park Avenue" practice catering to patients who demand a prestigious surgeon, although this is

  1. Gratitude intervention modulates P3 amplitude in a temporal discounting task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patalano, Andrea L; Lolli, Sydney L; Sanislow, Charles A

    2018-06-23

    Gratitude has been shown to reduce economic impatience. In particular, individuals induced to experience heightened gratitude are more willing to choose delayed larger rewards over immediate smaller rewards (i.e., they have lower discounting rates) than those in a neutral condition. Using the event-related potential (ERP) method, we investigated the relation between gratitude level and neurophysiological correlates. Of interest was motivated information processing, as indexed by the P3 component. Participants were administered a gratitude or a neutral mood induction followed by a temporal discounting task (choosing between a fixed immediate reward versus a future reward that varied across trials) while electroencephalogram (EEG) activity was recorded. Individuals in the gratitude condition had greater P3 amplitude, suggesting greater attention to the future-reward option (the choice option that varied across trials), even when this option was not selected, and providing the first evidence of gratitude-induced changes in electrophysiological activity. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  2. Discounting of qualitatively different delayed health outcomes in current and never smokers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedel, Jonathan E.; DeHart, William B.; Frye, Charles C. J.; Rung, Jillian M.; Odum, Amy L.

    2016-01-01

    In delay discounting, temporally remote outcomes have less value. Cigarette smoking is associated with steeper discounting of money and consumable outcomes. It is presently unclear whether smokers discount health outcomes more than non-smokers. We sought to establish the generality of steep discounting for different types of health outcomes in cigarette smokers. Seventy participants (38 smokers and 32 non-smokers) completed four hypothetical outcome delay-discounting tasks: a gain of $500, a loss of $500, a temporary boost in health, and temporary cure from a debilitating disease. Participants reported the duration of each health outcome that would be equivalent to $500; these durations were then used in the respective discounting tasks. Delays ranged from 1 week to 25 years. Smokers’ indifference points for monetary gains, boosts in health, and temporary cures were lower than indifference points from non-smokers. Indifference points of one outcome were correlated with indifference points of other outcomes. Smokers demonstrate steeper discounting across a range of delayed outcomes. How a person discounts one outcome predicts how they will discount other outcomes. These two findings support our assertion that delay discounting is in part a trait. PMID:26691848

  3. Unique prediction of cannabis use severity and behaviors by delay discounting and behavioral economic demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strickland, Justin C; Lile, Joshua A; Stoops, William W

    2017-07-01

    Few studies have simultaneously evaluated delay discounting and behavioral economic demand to determine their unique contribution to drug use. A recent study in cannabis users found that monetary delay discounting uniquely predicted cannabis dependence symptoms, whereas cannabis demand uniquely predicted use frequency. This study sought to replicate and extend this research by evaluating delay discounting and behavioral economic demand measures for multiple commodities and including a use quantity measure. Amazon.com's Mechanical Turk was used to sample individuals reporting recent cannabis use (n=64) and controls (n=72). Participants completed measures of monetary delay discounting as well as alcohol and cannabis delay discounting and demand. Cannabis users and controls did not differ on monetary delay discounting or alcohol delay discounting and demand. Among cannabis users, regression analyses indicated that cannabis delay discounting uniquely predicted use severity, whereas cannabis demand uniquely predicted use frequency and quantity. These effects remained significant after controlling for other delay discounting and demand measures. This research replicates previous outcomes relating delay discounting and demand with cannabis use and extends them by accounting for the contribution of multiple commodities. This research also demonstrates the ability of online crowdsourcing methods to complement traditional human laboratory techniques. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Accounting of discounts, acquired by an enterprise when purchasing production inventories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shishkina A.V.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Different types of discounts for the price of a product are quite common in transactions. They are frequently used by industrial enterprises as well: they receive discounts when they purchase production inventories; they offer discounts when they sell the finished product. Industrial enterprise strive to minimize costs when purchasing raw materials necessary for manufacturing and therefore it is interested in acquiring a discount from supplier. Acquiring a discount is a fact of economic life and must be registered in financial accounts of an enterprise, however nowadays the patterns of accounting of such operations are not regulated by any special normative documents and traditionally applied accounting patterns do not contain information on the amounts of received discounts. It is happening because they comply with the current rules of accounting, according to which inventories are accounted only after deduction of the received discount (so the discount is granted in form of verbal agreement. This is a precursor to the lack of data on the received discounts in financial accounting system of an industrial enterprise, to the impossibility of creation the information base for analyzing the effectiveness of the received discounts on its basis, to the violation of the principle of completeness and continuity of registering all the economic life events in accounting. The article offers the already existing variants of financial accounting of the received discounts, analyzes its advantages and disadvantages from the point of view of compliance with the current legislative system and economic contents of discount operation. Proprietary technology of financial accounting of discounts, received by an industrial enterprise when purchasing production stock, is offered. This technology allows solving the stated methodological issues.

  5. Spatial discounting of food and social rewards in guppies (Poecilia reticulata

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nelly eMühlhoff

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available In temporal discounting, animals trade off the time to obtain a reward against the quality of a reward, choosing between a smaller reward available sooner versus a larger reward available later. Similar discounting can apply over space, when animals choose between smaller and closer versus larger and more distant rewards. Most studies of temporal and spatial discounting in nonhuman animals use food as the reward, and it is not established whether animals trade off other preferred stimuli in similar ways. Here, we offered female guppies (Poecilia reticulata a spatial discounting task in which we measured preferences for a larger reward as the distance to it increased relative to a closer but smaller reward. We tested whether the fish discounted reward types differently by offering subjects either food items or same-sex conspecifics as rewards. Before beginning the discounting tasks, we conducted validation tests to ensure that subjects equally valued the food and social stimuli in the quantities provided. In the discounting task, subjects switched their preferences from the larger to the smaller reward as the distance to the larger reward increased (spatial discounting, but the pattern and magnitude of discounting did not differ across the two reward types. These findings indicate that guppies show similar patterns of discounting food and social rewards in a spatial task. In an analysis of travel times, however, the fish swam faster to food rewards than to shoaling partners. This difference in travel times implies that fish temporally discounted social rewards less steeply than food rewards. Thus, reward type influences temporal discounting, suggesting a dissociation between temporal and spatial discounting. Our results illustrate how animals adjust choices and travel times depending on both the type of cost (time, distance and benefits (food, social partners.

  6. Spherical grand-canonical minority games with and without score discounting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bladon, Alex; Richardson, Thomas; Galla, Tobias

    2009-01-01

    We present a spherical version of the grand-canonical minority game (GCMG) and solve its dynamics in the stationary state. The model displays several types of transitions between multiple ergodic phases and one non-ergodic phase. We derive analytical solutions, including exact expressions for the volatility, throughout all ergodic phases and compute the phase behaviour of the system. In contrast to conventional GCMGs, where the introduction of memory loss precludes analytical approaches, the spherical model can also be solved when exponential discounting is taken into account. For the case of homogeneous incentives to trade ε and memory-loss rates ρ, an efficient phase is found only if ρ = ε = 0. Allowing for heterogeneous memory-loss rates we find that efficiency can be achieved as long as there is any finite fraction of agents which is not subject to memory loss

  7. A Discounted Cash Flow variant to detect the optimal amount of additional burdens in Public-Private Partnership transactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Copiello, Sergio

    2016-01-01

    The Discounted Cash Flow method is a long since well-known tool to assess the feasibility of investment projects, as the background which shapes a broad range of techniques, from the Cost-Benefit Analysis up to the Life-Cycle Cost Analysis. Its rationale lies in the comparison of deferred values, only once they have been discounted back to the present. The DCF variant proposed here fits into a specific application field. It is well-suited to the evaluations required in order to structure equitable transactions under the umbrella of Public-Private Partnership. •The discount rate relies upon the concept of expected return on equity, instead than on those of weighted average cost of capital, although the latter is the most common reference within the scope of real estate investment valuation.•Given a feasible project, whose Net Present Value is more than satisfactory, we aim to identify the amount of the additional burdens that could be charged to the project, under the condition of keeping the same economically viable.•The DCF variant essentially deals with an optimization problem, which can be solved by means of simple one-shot equations, derived from financial mathematics, or through iterative calculations if additional constraints must be considered.

  8. The vanishing discount problem and viscosity Mather measures. Part 2: boundary value problems

    OpenAIRE

    Ishii, Hitoshi; Mitake, Hiroyoshi; Tran, Hung V.

    2016-01-01

    In arXiv:1603.01051 (Part 1 of this series), we have introduced a variational approach to studying the vanishing discount problem for fully nonlinear, degenerate elliptic, partial differential equations in a torus. We develop this approach further here to handle boundary value problems. In particular, we establish new representation formulas for solutions of discount problems, critical values, and use them to prove convergence results for the vanishing discount problems.

  9. Integrating discount usability in scrum development process in Ethiopia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Teka, Degif; Dittrich, Y.; Kifle, Mesfin

    2017-01-01

    be adapted and integrated into the Scrum-agile development with especial emphasis on the Ethiopian context. The research aims at adapting software engineering and ICT development methods to the specific situation and integrating user-centered design (UCD) and lightweight usability methods into agile...... end users and developers. Culturally adapted user pair testing and heuristic evaluation supported usability testing and supported developers in getting early feedback. Integrated approach of discount usability with the Scrum process has been developed and evaluated first with the involved...

  10. Delay discounting of oral morphine and sweetened juice rewards in dependent and non-dependent rats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harvey-Lewis, Colin; Perdrizet, Johnna; Franklin, Keith B J

    2014-07-01

    Opioid-dependent humans are reported to show accelerated delay discounting of opioid rewards when compared to monetary rewards. It has been suggested that this may reflect a difference in discounting of consumable and non-consumable goods not specific to dependent individuals. Here, we evaluate the discounting of similar morphine and non-morphine oral rewards in dependent and non-dependent rats We first tested the analgesic and rewarding effects of our morphine solution. In a second experiment, we assigned rats randomly to either dependent or non-dependent groups that, 30 min after daily testing, received 30 mg/kg subcutaneous dose of morphine, or saline, respectively. Delay discounting of drug-free reward was examined prior to initiation of the dosing regimen. We tested discounting of the morphine reward in half the rats and retested the discounting of the drug-free reward in the other half. All tests were run 22.5 h after the daily maintenance dose. Rats preferred the morphine cocktail to the drug-free solution and consumed enough to induce significant analgesia. The control quinine solution did not produce these effects. Dependent rats discounted morphine rewards more rapidly than before dependence and when compared to discounting drug-free rewards. In non-dependent rats both reward types were discounted similarly. These results show that morphine dependence increases impulsiveness specifically towards a drug reward while morphine experience without dependence does not.

  11. Money earlier or later? Simple heuristics explain intertemporal choices better than delay discounting does.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ericson, Keith M Marzilli; White, John Myles; Laibson, David; Cohen, Jonathan D

    2015-06-01

    Heuristic models have been proposed for many domains involving choice. We conducted an out-of-sample, cross-validated comparison of heuristic models of intertemporal choice (which can account for many of the known intertemporal choice anomalies) and discounting models. Heuristic models outperformed traditional utility-discounting models, including models of exponential and hyperbolic discounting. The best-performing models predicted choices by using a weighted average of absolute differences and relative percentage differences of the attributes of the goods in a choice set. We concluded that heuristic models explain time-money trade-off choices in experiments better than do utility-discounting models. © The Author(s) 2015.

  12. Money Earlier or Later? Simple Heuristics Explain Intertemporal Choices Better than Delay Discounting1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marzilli Ericson, Keith M.; White, John Myles; Laibson, David; Cohen, Jonathan D.

    2015-01-01

    Heuristic models have been proposed for many domains of choice. We compare heuristic models of intertemporal choice, which can account for many of the known intertemporal choice anomalies, to discounting models. We conduct an out-of-sample, cross-validated comparison of intertemporal choice models. Heuristic models outperform traditional utility discounting models, including models of exponential and hyperbolic discounting. The best performing models predict choices by using a weighted average of absolute differences and relative (percentage) differences of the attributes of the goods in a choice set. We conclude that heuristic models explain time-money tradeoff choices in experiments better than utility discounting models. PMID:25911124

  13. A discount strategy in word-of-mouth marketing and its assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Tianrui; Yang, Xiaofan; Yang, Lu-Xing; Tang, Yuan Yan; Wu, Yingbo

    2017-01-01

    This paper addresses the discount pricing in word-of-mouth (WOM) marketing. A new discount strategy known as the Infection-Based Discount (IBD) strategy is proposed. The basic idea of the IBD strategy lies in that each customer enjoys a discount that is linearly proportional to his/her influence in the WOM network. To evaluate the performance of the IBD strategy, the WOM spreading process is modeled as a dynamic model known as the DPA model, and the performance of the IBD strategy is modeled ...

  14. What drives credit rating changes? : a return decomposition approach

    OpenAIRE

    Cho, Hyungjin; Choi, Sun Hwa

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the relative importance of a shock to expected cash flows (i.e., cash-flow news) and a shock to expected discount rates (i.e., discount-rate news) in credit rating changes. Specifically, we use a Vector Autoregressive model to implement the return decomposition of Campbell and Shiller (Review of Financial Studies, 1, 1988, 195) and Vuolteenaho (Journal of Finance, 57, 2002, 233) to extract cash-flow news and discount-rate news from stock returns at the firm-level. We find ...

  15. Optimal batch production strategies under continuous price decrease and time discounting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mandal S.

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Single price discount in unit cost for bulk purchasing is quite common in reality as well as in inventory literature. However, in today's high-tech industries such as personal computers and mobile industries, continuous decrease in unit cost is a regular phenomenon. In the present paper, an attempt has been made to investigate the effects of continuous price decrease and time-value of money on optimal decisions for inventoried goods having time-dependent demand and production rates. The proposed models are developed over a finite time horizon considering both shortages and without shortages in inventory. Numerical examples are taken to illustrate the developed models and to examine the sensitivity of model parameters.

  16. Personality influences temporal discounting preferences: behavioral and brain evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manning, Joshua; Hedden, Trey; Wickens, Nina; Whitfield-Gabrieli, Susan; Prelec, Drazen; Gabrieli, John D E

    2014-09-01

    Personality traits are stable predictors of many life outcomes that are associated with important decisions that involve tradeoffs over time. Therefore, a fundamental question is how tradeoffs over time vary from person to person in relation to stable personality traits. We investigated the influence of personality, as measured by the Five-Factor Model, on time preferences and on neural activity engaged by intertemporal choice. During functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), participants made choices between smaller-sooner and larger-later monetary rewards. For each participant, we estimated a constant-sensitivity discount function that dissociates impatience (devaluation of future consequences) from time sensitivity (consistency with rational, exponential discounting). Overall, higher neuroticism was associated with a relatively greater preference for immediate rewards and higher conscientiousness with a relatively greater preference for delayed rewards. Specifically, higher conscientiousness correlated positively with lower short-term impatience and more exponential time preferences, whereas higher neuroticism (lower emotional stability) correlated positively with higher short-term impatience and less exponential time preferences. Cognitive-control and reward brain regions were more activated when higher conscientiousness participants selected a smaller-sooner reward and, conversely, when higher neuroticism participants selected a larger-later reward. The greater activations that occurred when choosing rewards that contradicted personality predispositions may reflect the greater recruitment of mental resources needed to override those predispositions. These findings reveal that stable personality traits fundamentally influence how rewards are chosen over time. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Deeply discounted medications: Implications of generic prescription drug wars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czechowski, Jessica L; Tjia, Jennifer; Triller, Darren M

    2010-01-01

    To describe the history of generic prescription pricing programs at major pharmacy chains and their potential implications on prescribing, quality of care, and patient safety. Publicly available generic prescription discount program drug lists as of May 1, 2009. Fierce competition among major pharmacy chains such as Walgreens, CVS, and Walmart has led to a generic prescription pricing war with unclear public health implications. Introduced in 2006, currently 7 of the 10 largest pharmacy chains advertise a version of a deeply discounted medication (DDM) program, accounting for more than 25,000 locations nationally. By early 2008, almost 70 million Americans had used these programs. Although DDM programs lower drug costs for many patients, DDM formularies include potentially ineffective or harmful medications, have the potential to influence physician prescribing behavior, and may impair pharmacists' ability to review complete drug-dispensing records. DDMs are widespread but have the potential for unintended consequences on patients, providers, and the health care system. A systematic review of DDMs needs to evaluate the clinical, economic, and system-level implications of such programs.

  18. A random utility model of delay discounting and its application to people with externalizing psychopathology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Junyi; Gunn, Rachel L; Gerst, Kyle R; Busemeyer, Jerome R; Finn, Peter R

    2016-10-01

    Previous studies have demonstrated that working memory capacity plays a central role in delay discounting in people with externalizing psychopathology. These studies used a hyperbolic discounting model, and its single parameter-a measure of delay discounting-was estimated using the standard method of searching for indifference points between intertemporal options. However, there are several problems with this approach. First, the deterministic perspective on delay discounting underlying the indifference point method might be inappropriate. Second, the estimation procedure using the R2 measure often leads to poor model fit. Third, when parameters are estimated using indifference points only, much of the information collected in a delay discounting decision task is wasted. To overcome these problems, this article proposes a random utility model of delay discounting. The proposed model has 2 parameters, 1 for delay discounting and 1 for choice variability. It was fit to choice data obtained from a recently published data set using both maximum-likelihood and Bayesian parameter estimation. As in previous studies, the delay discounting parameter was significantly associated with both externalizing problems and working memory capacity. Furthermore, choice variability was also found to be significantly associated with both variables. This finding suggests that randomness in decisions may be a mechanism by which externalizing problems and low working memory capacity are associated with poor decision making. The random utility model thus has the advantage of disclosing the role of choice variability, which had been masked by the traditional deterministic model. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  19. The meanings of discounts in contemporary art markets: the case of India

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Komarova, N.

    2015-01-01

    Although discounts in art markets are commonplace, the phenomenon remains largely unresearched. This paper looks at how art market actors understand the functions of discounts, focusing on ‘suppliers’ of the market and drawing on qualitative interviews with artists and art dealers from New Delhi and

  20. Beyond the Shadow of a Trait: Understanding Discounting through Item-Level Analysis of Personality Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charlton, Shawn R.; Gossett, Bradley D.; Charlton, Veda A.

    2011-01-01

    Temporal discounting, the loss in perceived value associated with delayed outcomes, correlates with a number of personality measures, suggesting that an item-level analysis of trait measures might provide a more detailed understanding of discounting. The current report details two studies that investigate the utility of such an item-level…

  1. When Discounts Hurt Sales: The Case of Daily-Deal Markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Z. Cao (Zike); K.L. Hui (Kai-Lung); Xu, H.

    2017-01-01

    textabstractWe investigate whether the discounts offered by online daily deals help attract consumer purchases. By tracking the sales of 19,978 deals on Groupon.com and conducting a battery of identification and falsification tests, we find that deep discounts reduce sales. A one-percent increase in

  2. Does private-label production by national-brand manufacturers create discounter goodwill?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ter Braak, A.M.; Deleersnyder, B.; Geyskens, I.; Dekimpe, M.G.

    2013-01-01

    Discount stores have a private-label dominated assortment where national brands have only limited shelf access. These limited spots are in high demand by national-brand manufacturers. We examine whether private-label production by leading national-brand manufacturers for two important discounters

  3. Changing Delay Discounting in the Light of the Competing Neurobehavioral Decision Systems Theory: A Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koffarnus, Mikhail N.; Jarmolowicz, David P.; Mueller, E. Terry; Bickel, Warren K.

    2013-01-01

    Excessively devaluing delayed reinforcers co-occurs with a wide variety of clinical conditions such as drug dependence, obesity, and excessive gambling. If excessive delay discounting is a trans-disease process that underlies the choice behavior leading to these and other negative health conditions, efforts to change an individual's discount rate…

  4. Stochastic Discount Factor Approach to International Risk-Sharing:A Robustness Check of the Bilateral Setting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hadzi-Vaskov, M.; Kool, C.J.M.

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents a robustness check of the stochastic discount factor approach to international (bilateral) risk-sharing given in Brandt, Cochrane, and Santa-Clara (2006). We demonstrate two main inherent limitations of the bilateral SDF approach to international risk-sharing. First, the discount

  5. Discounting of Delayed Food Rewards in Pigeons and Rats: Is There a Magnitude Effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Leonard; Myerson, Joel; Holt, Daniel D.; Slavin, John R.; Estle, Sara J.

    2004-01-01

    Temporal discounting refers to the decrease in the present, subjective value of a reward as the time to its receipt increases. Results from humans have shown that a hyperbola-like function describes the form of the discounting function when choices involve hypothetical monetary rewards. In addition, magnitude effects have been reported in which…

  6. Temporal discounting in life cycle assessment: A critical review and theoretical framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuan, Chris; Wang, Endong; Zhai, Qiang; Yang, Fan

    2015-01-01

    Temporal homogeneity of inventory data is one of the major problems in life cycle assessment (LCA). Addressing temporal homogeneity of life cycle inventory data is important in reducing the uncertainties and improving the reliability of LCA results. This paper attempts to present a critical review and discussion on the fundamental issues of temporal homogeneity in conventional LCA and propose a theoretical framework for temporal discounting in LCA. Theoretical perspectives for temporal discounting in life cycle inventory analysis are discussed first based on the key elements of a scientific mechanism for temporal discounting. Then generic procedures for performing temporal discounting in LCA is derived and proposed based on the nature of the LCA method and the identified key elements of a scientific temporal discounting method. A five-step framework is proposed and reported in details based on the technical methods and procedures needed to perform a temporal discounting in life cycle inventory analysis. Challenges and possible solutions are also identified and discussed for the technical procedure and scientific accomplishment of each step within the framework. - Highlights: • A critical review for temporal homogeneity problem of life cycle inventory data • A theoretical framework for performing temporal discounting on inventory data • Methods provided to accomplish each step of the temporal discounting framework

  7. Social Discounting of Large Dams with Climate Change Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marc Jeuland

    2010-06-01

    This paper reviews the recent discounting controversy and examines its implications for the appraisal of an illustrative hydropower project in Ethiopia. The analysis uses an integrated hydro-economic model that accounts for how the dam’s transboundary impacts vary with climate change. The real value of the dam is found to be highly sensitive to assumptions about future economic growth. The argument for investment is weakest under conditions of robust global economic growth, particularly if these coincide with unfavourable hydrological or development factors related to the project. If however long-term growth is reduced, the value of the dam tends to increase. There may also be distributional or local arguments favouring investment, if growth in the investment region lags behind that of the rest of the globe. In such circumstances, a large dam can be seen as a form of insurance that protects future vulnerable generations against the possibility of macroeconomic instability or climate shocks.

  8. Accelerated decomposition techniques for large discounted Markov decision processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larach, Abdelhadi; Chafik, S.; Daoui, C.

    2017-12-01

    Many hierarchical techniques to solve large Markov decision processes (MDPs) are based on the partition of the state space into strongly connected components (SCCs) that can be classified into some levels. In each level, smaller problems named restricted MDPs are solved, and then these partial solutions are combined to obtain the global solution. In this paper, we first propose a novel algorithm, which is a variant of Tarjan's algorithm that simultaneously finds the SCCs and their belonging levels. Second, a new definition of the restricted MDPs is presented to ameliorate some hierarchical solutions in discounted MDPs using value iteration (VI) algorithm based on a list of state-action successors. Finally, a robotic motion-planning example and the experiment results are presented to illustrate the benefit of the proposed decomposition algorithms.

  9. Geneflow and Cumulative discounted Revenues of Dairy Cattle Cross-Breeding Schemes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kosgey, I.S.; Bebe, B.O.; Kahi, A.K.; Arendonk, J.A.M.V.

    1999-01-01

    A simulation study Using Matrix formulation was used to asses the flow of genes from the nucleus to the commercial population for three nucleus dairy cattle crossbreeding schemes involving indigenous (Zebu or native ) and exotic (European) animals under Kenyan conditions: Artificial insemination (A.I.) or natural mating F 1 production, continuous crossbred (F 2 inter se) production and multiple ovulation and embryo transfer (MOET) F 1 production. The latter two schemes used MOET in the nucleus. cumulative discounted expressions (CDES) and cumulative discounted Revenues (CDR) were calculated to rank these schemes. The Pathways considered were sires and dams to produce sires and dams. The evaluation Criterion was milk production measured in age class 3 through 10 in F 1 and F 2 cow populations. the schemes were evaluated over a 30-year projected period with assumed interest rates of 0% and 10%. Further, the genetic level between the indigenous nucleus animals, the F 1 males and commercial female population was calculated by defining the incidence vector h as the difference between the three groups. The F 1 A.I. or natural scheme had higher CDES of 0.978 and 0.161 at 0% and 10% interest rates respectively. The corresponding values for F 1 MOET scheme were 0.735 and 0.070 and those of F 2 inter se were 0.676 and 0.079 at 0% and 10% interest rates, respectively. For a nucleus with 64 dams, CDR (US$) were 95.50 and 15.80 at 0% and 10% interest rates, respectively for F 1 A.I. or natural scheme. The F 1 MOET scheme had corresponding values of 62.05 and 6.90 while F 2 inter se had 66.10 and 7.75. Under both interest rates, the F 1 A.I. or natural mating schemes had higher CDES and CDR than the other two schemes and is faster in dissemination of genes to the commercial population. F 2 inter se was intermediate. The genetic level of nucleus animal is higher than of F 1 male and females because indigenous nucleus females contribute 50% of the genes. F 2 cows are expected to

  10. Effects of acute buspirone administration on inhibitory control and sexual discounting in cocaine users.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strickland, Justin C; Bolin, B Levi; Romanelli, Michael R; Rush, Craig R; Stoops, William W

    2017-01-01

    Cocaine users display deficits in inhibitory control and make impulsive choices that may increase risky behavior. Buspirone is an anxiolytic that activates dopaminergic and serotonergic systems and improves impulsive choice (i.e., reduces sexual risk-taking intent) in cocaine users when administered chronically. We evaluated the effects of acutely administered buspirone on inhibitory control and impulsive choice. Eleven subjects with a recent history of cocaine use completed this within-subject, placebo-controlled study. Subjects performed two cued go/no-go and a sexual risk delay-discounting task following oral administration of buspirone (10 and 30 mg), triazolam (0.375 mg; positive control), and placebo (negative control). Physiological and psychomotor performance and subject-rated data were also collected. Buspirone failed to change inhibitory control or impulsive choice; however, slower reaction times were observed at the highest dose tested. Buspirone did not produce subject-rated drug effects but dose-dependently decreased diastolic blood pressure. Triazolam impaired psychomotor performance and increased ratings of positive subject-rated effects (e.g., Like Drug). These findings indicate that acutely administered buspirone has little impact on behavioral measures of inhibitory control and impulsive sexual decision-making. Considering previous findings with chronic dosing, these findings highlight that the behavioral effects of buspirone differ as a function of dosing conditions. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  11. Discounting of Monetary Rewards That Are Both Delayed and Probabilistic: Delay and Probability Combine Multiplicatively, Not Additively

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanderveldt, Ariana; Green, Leonard; Myerson, Joel

    2015-01-01

    The value of an outcome is affected both by the delay until its receipt (delay discounting) and by the likelihood of its receipt (probability discounting). Despite being well-described by the same hyperboloid function, delay and probability discounting involve fundamentally different processes, as revealed, for example, by the differential effects…

  12. 26 CFR 1.466-1 - Method of accounting for the redemption cost of qualified discount coupons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... the coupon. (2) Definitions—(i) Discount coupon. A discount coupon is a sales promotion device used to... 26 Internal Revenue 6 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Method of accounting for the redemption cost of qualified discount coupons. 1.466-1 Section 1.466-1 Internal Revenue INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF...

  13. Costs and effectiveness of fingolimod versus alemtuzumab in the treatment of highly active relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis in the UK: re-treatment, discount, and disutility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montgomery, Stephen M; Kusel, Jeanette; Nicholas, Richard; Adlard, Nicholas

    2017-09-01

    Patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) treated with disease modifying therapies (DMTs) who continue to experience disease activity may be considered for escalation therapies such as fingolimod, or may be considered for alemtuzumab. Previous economic modeling used Markov models; applying one alternative technique, discrete event simulation (DES) modeling, allows re-treatment and long-term adverse events (AEs) to be included in the analysis. A DES was adapted to model relapse-triggered re-treatment with alemtuzumab and the effect of including ongoing quality-adjusted life year (QALY) decrements for AEs that extend beyond previous 1-year Markov cycles. As the price to the NHS of fingolimod in the UK is unknown, due to a confidential patient access scheme (PAS), a variety of possible discounts were tested. The interaction of re-treatment assumptions for alemtuzumab with the possible discounts for fingolimod was tested to determine which DMT resulted in lower lifetime costs. The lifetime QALY results were derived from modeled treatment effect and short- and long-term AEs. Most permutations of fingolimod PAS discount and alemtuzumab re-treatment rate resulted in fingolimod being less costly than alemtuzumab. As the percentage of patients who are re-treated with alemtuzumab due to experiencing a relapse approaches 100% of those who relapse whilst on treatment, the discount required for fingolimod to be less costly drops below 5%. Consideration of treatment effect alone found alemtuzumab generated 0.2 more QALYs/patient; the inclusion of AEs up to a duration of 1 year reduced this advantage to only 0.14 QALYs/patient. Modeling AEs with a lifetime QALY decrement found that both DMTs generated very similar QALYs with the difference only 0.04 QALYs/patient. When the model captured alemtuzumab re-treatment and long-term AE decrements, it was found that fingolimod is cost-effective compared to alemtuzumab, assuming application of only a modest level of

  14. Delay or probability discounting in a model of impulsive behavior: effect of alcohol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richards, J B; Zhang, L; Mitchell, S H; de Wit, H

    1999-01-01

    Little is known about the acute effects of drugs of abuse on impulsivity and self-control. In this study, impulsivity was assessed in humans using a computer task that measured delay and probability discounting. Discounting describes how much the value of a reward (or punisher) is decreased when its occurrence is either delayed or uncertain. Twenty-four healthy adult volunteers ingested a moderate dose of ethanol (0.5 or 0.8 g/kg ethanol: n = 12 at each dose) or placebo before completing the discounting task. In the task the participants were given a series of choices between a small, immediate, certain amount of money and $10 that was either delayed (0, 2, 30, 180, or 365 days) or probabilistic (i.e., certainty of receipt was 1.0, .9, .75, .5, or .25). The point at which each individual was indifferent between the smaller immediate or certain reward and the $10 delayed or probabilistic reward was identified using an adjusting-amount procedure. The results indicated that (a) delay and probability discounting were well described by a hyperbolic function; (b) delay and probability discounting were positively correlated within subjects; (c) delay and probability discounting were moderately correlated with personality measures of impulsivity; and (d) alcohol had no effect on discounting. PMID:10220927

  15. The effect of natural scenes on temporal and probability discounting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2015-09-01

    Results: There was no significant difference in delay discounting between groups F(1,172 = .613, p = .607. Males discounted significantly less than females on temporal and probability discounting tasks F(1,300 = 6.795, p = .010; F(1,300 = 9.941, p = .002, respectively. Older individuals delay discount significantly less than younger individuals F(3,300 = 11.826, p < .001. Older individuals had significantly higher positive affect than younger individuals F(3,300 = 7.956, p < .001. Conclusions: The discounting functions obtained were consistent with previous studies. The results for age and gender on discounting contributes to discussion of these matters: While lower levels of impulsivity in older adults is perhaps to be expected, the gender effect obtained here is less easily explained. Contrary to Berry et al. (2014 we found no evidence for any effect of viewing natural scenes on discounting, regardless of their aesthetic properties. While this discrepancy could relate to the differences in methodology employed, it would suggest that the claims for an effect of natural scenes on impulsivity should be treated with caution.

  16. The effect of discounting, different mortality reduction schemes and predictive cohort life tables on risk acceptability criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rackwitz, Ruediger

    2006-01-01

    Technical facilities should be optimal with respect to benefits and cost. Optimization of technical facilities involving risks for human life and limb require an acceptability criterion and suitable discount rates both for the public and the operator depending on for whom the optimization is carried out. The life quality index is presented and embedded into modem socio-economic concepts. A general risk acceptability criterion is derived. The societal life saving cost to be used in optimization as life saving or compensation cost and the societal willingness-to-pay based on the societal value of a statistical life or on the societal life quality index are developed. Different mortality reduction schemes are studied. Also, predictive cohort life tables are derived and applied. Discount rates γ must be long-term averages in view of the time horizon of some 20 to more than 100 years for the facilities of interest and net of inflation and taxes. While the operator may use long-term averages from the financial market for his cost-benefit analysis the assessment of interest rates for investments of the public into risk reduction is more difficult. The classical Ramsey model decomposes the real interest rate (=output growth rate) into the rate of time preference of consumption and the rate of economical growth multiplied by the elasticity of marginal utility of consumption. It is proposed to use a relatively small interest rate of 3% implying a rate of time preference of consumption of about 1%. This appears intergenerationally acceptable from an ethical point of view. Risk-consequence curves are derived for an example

  17. Method of levelized discounted costs applied in economic evaluation of nuclear power plant project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tian Li; Wang Yongqing; Liu Jingquan; Guo Jilin; Liu Wei

    2000-01-01

    The main methods of economic evaluation of bid which are in common use are introduced. The characteristics of levelized discounted cost method and its application are presented. The method of levelized discounted cost is applied to the cost calculation of a 200 MW nuclear heating reactor economic evaluation. The results indicate that the method of levelized discounted costs is simple, feasible and which is considered most suitable for the economic evaluation of various case. The method is suggested which is used in the national economic evaluation

  18. Explicit formulas for the variance of discounted life-cycle cost

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noortwijk, Jan M. van

    2003-01-01

    In life-cycle costing analyses, optimal design is usually achieved by minimising the expected value of the discounted costs. As well as the expected value, the corresponding variance may be useful for estimating, for example, the uncertainty bounds of the calculated discounted costs. However, general explicit formulas for calculating the variance of the discounted costs over an unbounded time horizon are not yet available. In this paper, explicit formulas for this variance are presented. They can be easily implemented in software to optimise structural design and maintenance management. The use of the mathematical results is illustrated with some examples

  19. Coordinated Lot-sizing and Dynamic Prizing under a Supplier All-units Quantity Discount

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandra Transchel

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available We consider an economic order quantity model where the supplier offers an all-units quantity discount and a price sensitive customer demand. We compare a decentralized decision framework where selling price and replenishment policy are determined independently to simultaneous decision making. Constant and dynamic pricing are distinguished. We derive structural properties and develop algorithms that determine the optimal pricing and replenishment policy and show how quantity discounts not only influence the purchasing strategy but also the pricing policy. A sensitivity analysis indicates the impact of the fixed-holding cost ratio, the discount policy, and the customers' price sensitivity on the optimal decisions.

  20. An analysis of the influence of discount sales promotion in consumer buying intent and the moderating effects of attractiveness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando de Oliveira Santini

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT The purpose of this paper is to analyze the influence of discount sales promotion in the purchase intention and the moderating effects of attractiveness in the relationship between intention to purchase a discounted product and the impulsiveness, hedonic perception and financial risk. Thus, an experiment involving 613 students was conducted. The hypotheses predicted that a product with discount promotion would relate positively with impulsivity, as well as with a hedonic perception about the good offered, and negatively with the perception of financial risk associated with the product offered with discount. A positive moderation was expected of the perceived attractiveness of the announced discount promotion on the intentions of behaviors. The results confirmed the hypothesis, indicating positive effects of impulsivity and hedonic perception by purchasing the discounted products, in addition to the negative link between the intention of purchasing discounted products and the perception of a financial risk. The moderating effects were not confirmed. Final considerations conclude the work.

  1. High temporal discounters overvalue immediate rewards rather than undervalue future rewards: an event-related brain potential study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cherniawsky, Avital S; Holroyd, Clay B

    2013-03-01

    Impulsivity is characterized in part by heightened sensitivity to immediate relative to future rewards. Although previous research has suggested that "high discounters" in intertemporal choice tasks tend to prefer immediate over future rewards because they devalue the latter, it remains possible that they instead overvalue immediate rewards. To investigate this question, we recorded the reward positivity, a component of the event-related brain potential (ERP) associated with reward processing, with participants engaged in a task in which they received both immediate and future rewards and nonrewards. The participants also completed a temporal discounting task without ERP recording. We found that immediate but not future rewards elicited the reward positivity. High discounters also produced larger reward positivities to immediate rewards than did low discounters, indicating that high discounters relatively overvalued immediate rewards. These findings suggest that high discounters may be more motivated than low discounters to work for monetary rewards, irrespective of the time of arrival of the incentives.

  2. Şirket Değerlemede İndirgenmiş Nakit Akımları Yöntemi’nin Bir Girdisi Olarak Devam Eden Değer’in Belirlenmesi(In Corporate Valuation Determination of Continuing Value As A Input of Discounted Cash Flows Method)

    OpenAIRE

    Mustafa KIRLI

    2005-01-01

    Three basic inputs or three independent variables are used in the applications of corporate valuation which considers discounted cash flows method.These are cash flows realized in the future,discount rate and continuing value.Continuing value is the company value of present value of cash flows after explicit forecast period.There are two basic approaches in the estimating of continuing value.First approach considers the cash flows after explicit forecast period and suggests Gordon Model,Valu...

  3. Towards and Effective Financial Management: Relevance of Dividend Discount Model in Stock Price Valuation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Mugoša

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to analyze the relevance of dividend discount model, i.e. its specific form in stock price estimation known as Gordon growth model. The expected dividends can be a measure of cash flows returned to the stockholder. In this context, the model is useful for assessment of how risk factors, such as interest rates and changing inflation rates, affect stock returns. This is especially important in case when investors are value oriented, i.e. when expected dividends are theirmain investing drivers. We compared the estimated with the actual stock price values and tested the statistical significance of price differences in 199 publicly traded European companies for the period2010-2013. Statistical difference between pairs of price series (actual and estimated was tested using Wilcoxon and Kruskal-Wallis tests of median and distribution equality. The hypothesis that Gordon growth model cannot be reliable measure of stock price valuation on European equity market over period of 2010-2013 due to influence of the global financial crisis was rejected with 95% confidence. Gordon growth model has proven to be reliable measure of stock price valuation even over period of strong global financial crisis influence.

  4. 26 CFR 1.818-3 - Amortization of premium and accrual of discount.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... required under section 818(b) on account of accruable discounts. (f) Denial of double inclusion. Any amount... section shall not be includible in gross income under section 1232(a) (relating to the taxation of bonds...

  5. Key Recovery Using Noised Secret Sharing with Discounts over Large Clouds

    OpenAIRE

    JAJODIA , Sushil; Litwin , Witold; Schwarz , Thomas

    2013-01-01

    Encryption key loss problem is the Achilles's heel of cryptography. Key escrow helps, but favors disclosures. Schemes for recoverable encryption keys through noised secret sharing alleviate the dilemma. Key owner escrows a specifically encrypted backup. The recovery needs a large cloud. Cloud cost, money trail should rarefy illegal attempts. We now propose noised secret sharing schemes supporting discounts. The recovery request with discount code lowers the recovery complexity, easily by orde...

  6. Insulin, Central Dopamine D2 Receptors, and Monetary Reward Discounting in Obesity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eisenstein, Sarah A; Gredysa, Danuta M; Antenor-Dorsey, Jo Ann; Green, Leonard; Arbeláez, Ana Maria; Koller, Jonathan M; Black, Kevin J; Perlmutter, Joel S; Moerlein, Stephen M; Hershey, Tamara

    2015-01-01

    Animal research finds that insulin regulates dopamine signaling and reward behavior, but similar research in humans is lacking. We investigated whether individual differences in body mass index, percent body fat, pancreatic β-cell function, and dopamine D2 receptor binding were related to reward discounting in obese and non-obese adult men and women. Obese (n = 27; body mass index>30) and non-obese (n = 20; body mass indexmonetary rewards relative to immediate, certain smaller monetary rewards was measured using delayed and probabilistic reward discounting tasks. Positron emission tomography using a non-displaceable D2-specific radioligand, [11C](N-methyl)benperidol quantified striatal D2 receptor binding. Groups differed in body mass index, percent body fat, and disposition index, but not in striatal D2 receptor specific binding or reward discounting. Higher percent body fat in non-obese women related to preference for a smaller, certain reward over a larger, less likely one (greater probabilistic discounting). Lower β-cell function in the total sample and lower insulin sensitivity in obese related to stronger preference for an immediate and smaller monetary reward over delayed receipt of a larger one (greater delay discounting). In obese adults, higher striatal D2 receptor binding related to greater delay discounting. Interestingly, striatal D2 receptor binding was not significantly related to body mass index, percent body fat, or β-cell function in either group. Our findings indicate that individual differences in percent body fat, β-cell function, and striatal D2 receptor binding may each contribute to altered reward discounting behavior in non-obese and obese individuals. These results raise interesting questions about whether and how striatal D2 receptor binding and metabolic factors, including β-cell function, interact to affect reward discounting in humans.

  7. Association of cognition with temporal discounting in community based older persons

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boyle Patricia A

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The objective of this study was to test the hypothesis that cognitive function is negatively associated with temporal discounting in old age. Methods Participants were 388 community-dwelling older persons without dementia from the Rush Memory and Aging Project, an ongoing longitudinal epidemiologic study of aging in the Chicago metropolitan area. Temporal discounting was measured using standard questions in which participants were asked to choose between an immediate, smaller payment and a delayed, larger one. Cognition was measured using a detailed battery including 19 tests. The association between cognition and temporal discounting was examined via mixed models adjusted for age, sex, education, income, and the number of chronic medical conditions. Results Descriptive data revealed a consistent pattern whereby older persons with lower cognitive function were more likely to discount greater but delayed rewards compared to those with higher cognitive function. Further, in a mixed effect model adjusted for age, sex, education, income, and chronic medical conditions, global cognitive function was negatively associated with temporal discounting (estimate = −0.45, SE = 0.18, p = 0.015, such that a person with lower cognition exhibited greater discounting. Finally, in subsequent models examining domain specific associations, perceptual speed and visuospatial abilities were associated with temporal discounting, but episodic memory, semantic memory and working memory were not. Conclusion Among older persons without dementia, a lower level of cognitive function is associated with greater temporal discounting. These findings have implications regarding the ability of older persons to make decisions that involve delayed rewards but maximize well-being.

  8. Analisi Pengaruh Store Name, Brand Name, Dan Price Discounts Terhadap Purchase Intentions Konsumen Infinite Tunjungan Plaza

    OpenAIRE

    Gunawan, Andy

    2013-01-01

    Andy Gunawan:SkripsiAnalisis pengaruh store name, brand name dan price discounts terhadap purchase intention konsumen infnite tunjungan plaza Di era globalisasi ini, persaingan dagang antara Perusahaan – Perusahaan baik lokal maupun global menjadi semakin ketat, oleh karena itu Perusahaan selalu berusaha untuk meningkatkan ketertarikan minat beli konsumen. Beberapa variabel yang menjadi fokus Perusahaan adalah store name, brand name, dan price discount. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk meng...

  9. Escaping the repugnant conclusion: rank-discounted utilitarianism with variable population

    OpenAIRE

    Asheim, Geir Bjarne; Zuber, Stéphane

    2014-01-01

    We contribute to population ethics by proposing and axiomatizing rank-discounted critical-level generalized utilitarianism (RDCLU). Population ethics is needed for evaluation of policies, e.g., concerning climate change, where population size depends on the chosen policy. We show that critical-level generalized utilitarianism and (a version of) critical-level leximin are the limits of RDCLU for extreme values of the rank utility discount factor. Moreover, we establish how RDCLU avoids serious...

  10. Higher-moment stochastic discount factor specifications and the cross-section of asset returns

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Dengli

    2013-01-01

    The stochastic discount factor model provides a general framework for pricing assets. A suitably specified discount factor encompasses most of the theories currently in use, including the CAPM, consumption CAPM, higher-moment CAPM and their conditional versions. In this thesis, we focus on the empirical admissibility of alternative SDFs under restrictions that ensure that investors’ risk-preferences are well behaved. More innovatively, we explore whether the SDF implied by the 3 and 4-mome...

  11. Comorbid depression, antisocial personality, and substance dependence: Relationship with delay discounting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moody, Lara; Franck, Christopher; Bickel, Warren K

    2016-03-01

    Within the field of addiction, as many as four-fifths of individuals in treatment for substance use disorder have co-existing lifetime psychopathology and as high as two-thirds have current psychopathology. Among substance-dependent individuals, excessive delay discounting is pervasive. Despite evidence of excessive discounting across substance use disorders, few studies have investigated the impact of co-occurring psychopathologies and SUD on delay discounting. We compared delay discounting in currently abstaining substance users with (a) SUD (n=166), (b) SUD and managed major depressive disorder (MDD; n=44), (c) SUD and antisocial personality disorder (APD; n=35), (d) SUD and managed MDD and APD (n=22) and (e) no SUD or co-occurring psychopathology (n=60). All groups with SUD discounted future delayed rewards significantly more than healthy controls (p<0.001 in each case, d=0.686, 0.835, 1.098 and 1.650, respective to groups a-d above). Individuals with both APD and SUD and individuals with MDD, APD, and SUD discounted future rewards significantly more than substance users without comorbid psychopathology (p=0.029, d=0.412 and p<0.001, d=0.964, respectively). Overall, individuals with multiple psychopathologies in addition to substance use have exacerbated deficits in discounting of the future, above and beyond that observed in substance use alone. Increased discounting in combined substance and psychopathology profiles suggest a greater chance of treatment failure and therefore may necessitate individualized treatment using adjunctive interventions to achieve better treatment outcomes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Predictive Validity of Delay Discounting Behavior in Adolescence: A Longitudinal Twin Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isen, Joshua D.; Sparks, Jordan C.; Iacono, William G.

    2014-01-01

    A standard assumption in the delay discounting literature is that individuals who exhibit steeper discounting of hypothetical rewards also experience greater difficulty deferring gratification to real-world rewards. There is ample cross-sectional evidence that delay discounting paradigms reflect a variety of maladaptive psychosocial outcomes, including substance use pathology. We sought to determine whether a computerized assessment of hypothetical delay discounting (HDD) taps into behavioral impulsivity in a community sample of adolescent twins (N = 675). Using a longitudinal design, we hypothesized that greater HDD at age 14–15 predicts real-world impulsive choices and risk for substance use disorders in late adolescence. We also examined the genetic and environmental structure of HDD performance. Individual differences in HDD behavior showed moderate heritability, and were prospectively associated with real-world temporal discounting at age 17–18. Contrary to expectations, HDD was not consistently related to substance use or trait impulsivity. Although a significant association between HDD behavior and past substance use emerged in males, this effect was mediated by cognitive ability. In both sexes, HDD failed to predict a comprehensive index of substance use problems and behavioral disinhibition in late adolescence. In sum, we present some of the first evidence that HDD performance is heritable and predictive of real-world temporal discounting of rewards. Nevertheless, HDD might not serve as a valid marker of substance use disorder risk in younger adolescents, particularly females. PMID:24999868

  13. Psychosocial Influences on Fruit and Vegetable Intake Following a NYC Supermarket Discount.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernales-Korins, Maria; Ang, Ian Yi Han; Khan, Shamima; Geliebter, Allan

    2017-08-01

    To assess the effect of a 50% discount on fruits and vegetables (F&V) on the purchase and intake of F&V and on psychosocial determinants of F&V intake: self-efficacy (SE), stages of change (SOC), and perceived barriers (PB). This randomized controlled trial was conducted in local supermarkets over 16 weeks, including a 4-week baseline, 8-week discount intervention, and 4-week follow-up. Shoppers with overweight or obesity (BMI > 25) were randomized to receive a discount or no discount via their reward scan card after the baseline. Twenty-four-hour recalls and psychosocial measures were obtained for each study period. Purchases (P supermarket discount intervention led to increases in purchases and intakes of F&V and increases in the psychosocial factors SE and SOC and did not decrease PB. The discount intervention prompted participants to move from the preparation to action stage of SOC, which acted as a mediator for increased F&V intake. © 2017 The Obesity Society.

  14. Activity in dlPFC and its effective connectivity to vmPFC are associated with temporal discounting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Todd A Hare

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available There is widespread interest in identifying computational and neurobiological mechanisms that influence the ability to choose long-term benefits over more proximal and readily available rewards in domains such as dietary and economic choice. We present the results of a human fMRI study that examines how neural activity relates to observed individual differences in the discounting of future rewards during an intertemporal monetary choice task. We found that a region of left dlPFC BA-46 was more active in trials where subjects chose delayed rewards, after controlling for the subjective value of those rewards. We also found that the connectivity from dlPFC BA-46 to a region of vmPFC widely associated with the computational of stimulus values, increased at the time of choice, and especially during trials in which subjects chose delayed rewards. Finally, we found that estimates of effective connectivity between these two regions played a critical role in predicting out-of-sample, between-subject differences in discount rates. Together with previous findings in dietary choice, these results suggest that a common set of computational and neurobiological mechanisms facilitate choices in favor of long- term reward in both settings.

  15. Effects of systematic asymmetric discounting on physician-patient interactions: a theoretical framework to explain poor compliance with lifestyle counseling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fleischer Alan B

    2002-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background This study advances the use of a utility model to model physician-patient interactions from the perspectives of physicians and patients. Presentation of the hypothesis In cases involving acute care, patient counseling involves a relatively straightforward transfer of information from the physician to a patient. The patient has less information than the physician on the impact the condition and its treatment have on utility. In decisions involving lifestyle changes, the patient may have more information than the physician on his/her utility of consumption; moreover, differences in discounting future health may contribute significantly to differences between patients' preferences and physicians' recommendations. Testing the hypothesis The expectation of differences in internal discount rate between patients and their physicians is discussed. Implications of the hypothesis This utility model provides a conceptual basis for the finding that educational approaches alone may not effect changes in patient behavior and suggests other economic variables that could be targeted in the attempt to produce healthier behavior.

  16. The impact of rotavirus vaccination on discounted net tax revenue in Egypt: a government perspective analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connolly, Mark P; Topachevskyi, Oleksandr; Standaert, Baudouin; Ortega, Omayra; Postma, Maarten

    2012-08-01

    We evaluated national rotavirus (RV) immunization programme costs to estimate how resulting changes in morbidity and mortality will influence government fiscal accounts over time. The assumption was that increased childhood survival in vaccinated cohorts leads to increased numbers of children consuming government resource, and an increased number of future tax payers. Our objective was to evaluate the difference in lifetime discounted net tax revenue generated by RV vaccinated and unvaccinated cohorts from the Egyptian government perspective. The model framework adopts the Egyptian government perspective for RV immunization costs (year 2009 values) and all government transfers (e.g. education costs, health costs, pensions). To reflect the government tax revenue, we applied a fixed income tax burden to earnings over the lifetime of vaccinated and unvaccinated cohorts. At each year of the model, we derive net taxes (gross taxes less transfers) discounted to the immunization year to reflect the present value of RV vaccination investment costs. Projected incremental net present values of the vaccinated cohort versus the unvaccinated cohort are $US6.1 million, $US58.1 million and $US55.7 million at 25-, 50- and 72-year time horizons, respectively. The internal rate of return for the government based on RV vaccination at years 25, 50 and 72 was 10.8%, 15.1% and 14.9, respectively. Within the first 5 years of vaccination, 76% of vaccine acquisition costs were offset due to direct and indirect cost savings attributed to a reduction in RV-related disease burden. Investments in RV vaccination in a single year are entirely offset when the vaccinated cohort of newborns reach 22 years of age. The government perspective is useful for evaluating investments in RV vaccination because of ongoing government transfers and tax receipts attributed to changes in RV-attributed morbidity and mortality. The analysis described here illustrates that investing in RV offers tangible long

  17. [The price-based certainty of purchase influences consumer behavior for discount].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arihara, Katsuhiko; Ariga, Atsunori; Furuya, Takeshi

    2016-04-01

    Tversky & Kahneman (1981) reported that most participants decided to drive when they could save money on a low-price good as compared to when they could save on a high-price good, even though the discount prices were same. Although this irrational decision making has been interpreted as a rate-dependent estimation of value (prospect theory), this study newly proposes that it can be explained by the certainty of purchase based on the price of goods. Experiment 1 replicated the previously reported difference in decision making, and additionally demonstrated that participants' certainty of purchase was lower for a high- than a low-price good. When it was emphasized that participants' intention to purchase high- and low-price goods were equally sure, decision making did not significantly differ (Experiment 2). Furthermore, decision making differed based only on the certainty of purchase even,when prices of goods were-same (Experiment 3). Consumers' decision making may be rather rational, depending straightforwardly on the certainty of purchase that is susceptible to price.

  18. Analytical solution to the circularity problem in the discounted cash flow valuation framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felipe Mejía-Peláez

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we propose an analytical solution to the circularity problem between value and cost of capital. Our solution is derived starting from a central principle of finance that relates value today to value, cash flow, and the discount rate for next period. We present a general formulation without circularity for the equity value (E, cost of levered equity (Ke, levered firm value (V, and the weighted average cost of capital (WACC. We furthermore compare the results obtained from these formulas with the results of the application of the Adjusted Present Value approach (no circularity and the iterative solution of circularity based upon the iteration feature of a spreadsheet, concluding that all methods yield exactly the same answer. The advantage of this solution is that it avoids problems such as using manual methods (i.e., the popular “Rolling WACC” ignoring the circularity issue, setting a target leverage (usually constant with the inconsistencies that result from it, the wrong use of book values, or attributing the discrepancies in values to rounding errors.

  19. Application of the discounted value flows method in production cost calculations for Czechoslovak nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Majer, P.

    1990-01-01

    The fundamentals are outlined of the discounted value flows method, which is used in industrial countries for calculating the specific electricity production costs. Actual calculations were performed for the first two units of the Temelin nuclear power plant. All costs associated with the construction, operation and decommissioning of this nuclear power plant were taken into account. With a high degree of certainty, the specific production costs of the Temelin nuclear power plant will lie within the range of 0.32 to 0.36 CSK/kWh. Nearly all results of the sensitivity analysis performed for the possible changes in the input values fall within this range. An increase in the interest rate to above 8% is an exception; this, however, can be regarded as rather improbable on a long-term basis. Sensitivity analysis gave evidence that the results of the electricity production cost calculations for the Temelin nuclear power plant can be considered sufficiently stable. (Z.M.). 7 figs., 2 tabs., 14 refs

  20. Trends in the use and advertising of discount versus premium snuff.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timberlake, David S; Pechmann, Cornelia

    2013-02-01

    The Conwood Company, a major producer of discount moist snuff, was awarded a $1 billion antitrust settlement in the year 2000 against its leading competitor, the U.S. Smokeless Tobacco Company. The objective of this study was to examine the trends in use and advertising of discount versus premium snuff since the Conwood settlement, a topic seldom addressed in the tobacco control literature. 2 sources of data were analyzed in 2011: (a) male snuff users from the 2002-2009 National Surveys on Drug Use and Health (N = 13,172) and (b) total advertisements of moist snuff identified from over 350 consumer magazines dated 2005-2009 (N = 861). For the survey data, demographic and tobacco-related measures were assessed as predictors of use of discount versus premium snuff in logistic regression models. For the advertising data, associations were examined between the snuff category and nicotine content, magazine youth readership, and year of magazine publication. The prevalence of discount and premium snuff use among males increased and decreased, respectively, from 2002 to 2009. Significant predictors of using discount versus premium snuff were being an adolescent, being an African-American, being a current or former smoker, living in a less populated region of the country, and using snuff frequently. Discount snuff advertising was associated with publication in magazines with a high youth readership. Discount snuff has grown in popularity among male adolescents who have been a target of advertising. The tobacco's cheap price and high nicotine content pose a public health problem because of the potential for long-term tobacco use and dependence.

  1. Using crowdsourcing to compare temporal, social temporal, and probability discounting among obese and non-obese individuals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bickel, Warren K; George Wilson, A; Franck, Christopher T; Terry Mueller, E; Jarmolowicz, David P; Koffarnus, Mikhail N; Fede, Samantha J

    2014-04-01

    Previous research comparing obese and non-obese samples on the delayed discounting procedure has produced mixed results. The aim of the current study was to clarify these discrepant findings by comparing a variety of temporal discounting measures in a large sample of internet users (n=1163) obtained from a crowdsourcing service, Amazon Mechanical Turk (AMT). Measures of temporal, social-temporal (a combination of standard and social temporal), and probability discounting were obtained. Significant differences were obtained on all discounting measures except probability discounting, but the obtained effect sizes were small. These data suggest that larger-N studies will be more likely to detect differences between obese and non-obese samples, and may afford the opportunity, in future studies, to decompose a large obese sample into different subgroups to examine the effect of other relevant measures, such as the reinforcing value of food, on discounting. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Effects of blood glucose on delay discounting, food intake and counterregulation in lean and obese men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klement, Johanna; Kubera, Britta; Eggeling, Jonas; Rädel, Christin; Wagner, Christin; Park, Soyoung Q; Peters, Achim

    2018-03-01

    Delay discounting as a measure of impulsivity has been shown to be higher in obesity with an association of increased food intake. Moreover, obese humans showed a higher wanting for high-calorie food than lean men when blood glucose concentrations were low. First studies linking blood glucose levels to delay discounting yielded mixed results. We hypothesized that obese people - in comparison to lean men - have a relative lack of energy, especially when blood glucose levels are low, that results in higher levels of delay discounting, food intake and hormonal counterregulation. We investigated 20 lean and 20 obese healthy young men in a single-blind balanced cross-over design. With a standardized glucose clamp technique, subjects underwent a hypoglycemic state in one condition and a euglycemic state in the control condition. Regularly, blood was sampled for assessment of hormonal status, and questionnaires were filled out to assess delay discounting and symptom awareness. After normalizing blood glucose concentrations, subjects were free to eat from a standardized test buffet, followed by a snack test. Delay discounting was higher in obese than in lean men throughout experiments (p  0.1). Furthermore, the discounting performance did not correlate with food intake from the test buffet or snack test (p > 0.3). As a response to hypoglycemia, hormonal counterregulation was pronounced in both weight groups (p  0.5). Our data suggest that augmented delay discounting is a robust feature in obesity that is not linked to glucose levels or actual food intake. With our systematically controlled approach, combining performance in delay discounting with regard to distinct blood glucose levels, different weight groups, counterregulatory behavior and food intake, our results imply that delay discounting is not susceptible to fluctuations of blood glucose and do not support the assumption that a low body's energy content leads to increased impulsivity. Further

  3. A dual-process approach to exploring the role of delay discounting in obesity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, Menna; Higgs, Suzanne; Maw, James; Lee, Michelle

    2016-08-01

    Delay discounting of financial rewards has been related to overeating and obesity. Neuropsychological evidence supports a dual-system account of both discounting and overeating behaviour where the degree of impulsive decision making is determined by the relative strength of reward desire and executive control. A dual-parameter model of discounting behaviour is consistent with this theory. In this study, the fit of the commonly used one-parameter model was compared to a new dual-parameter model for the first time in a sample of adults with wide ranging BMI. Delay discounting data from 79 males and females (males=26) across a wide age (M=28.44years (SD=8.81)) and BMI range (M=25.42 (SD=5.16)) was analysed. A dual-parameter model (saturating-hyperbolic; Doya, [Doya (2008) ]) was applied to the data and compared on model fit indices to the single-parameter model. Discounting was significantly greater in the overweight/obese participants using both models, however, the two parameter model showed a superior fit to data (pdual-system account of inter-temporal choice behaviour. The dual-parameter model showed superior fit to data and the two parameters were shown to be related yet distinct indices sensitive to differences between weight groups. Findings are discussed in terms of the impulsive reward and executive control systems that contribute to unhealthy food choice and within the context of obesity related research. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Exploratory study on the effect of discount pricing strategies for new product introduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mat Zaib, Nurul Afiqah; Bazin, Nor Erne Nazira; Mustaffa, Noorfa Haszlinna

    2013-04-01

    Rapid introduction of new product into the market has resulted in growing competition between retailers. Nowadays, retailers compete with one another in order to increase revenue and to maintain their position in the marketplace. This situation has forced the retailers to enhance their strategic management as well as creating competitive advantages. Generally, this situation can be observed in highly demanded product such as fashion goods and high technology electronic devices (smart phone, notebook). The consequence from the intense competition and new product introduction is difficulties in retailers pricing management. Retailers are now facing with complexity in making decisions on suitable pricing strategies and discount level for new product in association with the product life cycle. Thus, this research aims to investigate the suitable discount pricing strategies that can be integrated in every phase of product life cycle. This paper presents relationships between the discount pricing and the stages in the product life cycle in the form of conceptual diagram and mathematical expression. A system dynamic approach is used for developing the conceptual diagram and formulating the mathematical expression for the discount pricing strategies to visualize the relationship between discount pricing and product life cycle.

  5. Using 340B drug discounts to provide a financially sustainable medication discharge service.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Timothy; Williams, Carla; Vranek, Kathryn; Mattingly, T Joseph

    2018-03-27

    The 340B Drug Pricing Program was intended to stretch federal resources by providing significant discounts to covered entities providing care to underserved populations. Program implementation and evidence of expanding services to higher income patients has brought more scrutiny and calls for elimination of the program. While additional review and reform may be warranted, profitability from 340B discounts enables covered entities to provide additional services that may not be feasible in absence of the program. This case report demonstrates one institution's use of 340B discounts to financially justify providing bedside medication delivery services for patients at the time of discharge from an inpatient admission. A simple financial model was developed using hospital data and inputs from available literature to estimate gross profit and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) with and without 340B discounts. Without the 340B drug price discounts, the service would operate at a financial loss, and further investigation must be done to determine whether other clinical or economic benefits would warrant discharge medication delivery at the institution. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Cross-cultural comparisons of delay discounting of gain and loss.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishii, Keiko; Gang, Lili; Takahashi, Taiki

    2016-11-01

    People generally tend to discount future outcomes in favor of smaller but immediate gains (i.e., delay discounting). The present research examined cultural similarities and differences in delay discounting of gain and loss between Chinese and Japanese, based on a q-exponential model of intertemporal choice. Using a hypothetical situation, we asked 65 Japanese participants and 51 Chinese participants to choose between receiving (or paying) a different amount of money immediately or with a specified delay (1 week, 2 weeks, 1 month, 6 months, 1 year, 5 years, and 25 years). For each delay, participants completed a series of 40 binary choices for gain or loss. Regardless of cultures, the q-exponential model was the optimal model. Both impulsivity and time-inconsistency were higher for future gains than for future losses. In addition to the cultural similarities, Chinese participants discounted future gains and losses more steeply than did Japanese. In contrast, Japanese participants were more time-inconsistent in delay discounting than were Chinese, suggesting that the reduction in their subjective value depended relatively on delay.

  7. PARENTS' DISCOUNT RATE AND THE INTERGENERATIONAL TRANSMISSION OF COGNITIVE SKILLS. (R828716)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

  8. The social rate of discount for nuclear waste storage: economics or ethics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schulze, W.D.; Brookshire, D.S.; Sandler, T.

    1981-01-01

    The traditional economic approach for evaluating alternative policies has been the use of benefit-cost analysis. Application of this tool, however, to broad social questions, such as the choice to store nuclear wastes, has been unsuccessful because of several philosophical and ethical problems raised, first, by the need to value risks to human life and, second, with valuing in present terms events which may occur thousands of years hence. This paper is an attempt to look beyond traditional ethical and economic perspective. Formal economic models of alternative decision criteria for nuclear waste storage are developed which are based on alternative ethical positions.In particlular, three ethical positions are developed for comparison to benefit-cost analysis. First, the utilitarian ethic is used to explore the notion that the proper goal for society is to pursue the greatest good for the greatest number. Secondly, a simplified libertarian viewpoint is explored where the protection of individual rights is more important than the good of the whole. The final ethical position is based upon the democratic ethic

  9. Emotional arousal and discount rate in intertemporal choice are reference dependent.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lempert, Karolina M; Glimcher, Paul W; Phelps, Elizabeth A

    2015-04-01

    Many decisions involve weighing immediate gratification against future consequences. In such intertemporal choices, people often choose smaller, immediate rewards over larger delayed rewards. It has been proposed that emotional responses to immediate rewards lead us to choose them at our long-term expense. Here we utilize an objective measure of emotional arousal-pupil dilation-to examine the role of emotion in these decisions. We show that emotional arousal responses, as well as choices, in intertemporal choice tasks are reference-dependent and reflect the decision-maker's recent history of offers. Arousal increases when less predictable rewards are better than expected, whether those rewards are immediate or delayed. Furthermore, when immediate rewards are less predictable than delayed rewards, participants tend to be patient. When delayed rewards are less predictable, immediate rewards are preferred. Our findings suggest that we can encourage people to be more patient by changing the context in which intertemporal choices are made. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  10. The impact of discount rate and price on intertemporal groundwater models in southwest Kansas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agriculture plays a vital role in the growth and development of the High Plains Region of the United States. With the development and adoption of irrigation technology, this region was transformed into one of the most agriculturally productive regions in the world [1]. The primary source of irrigati...

  11. A simultaneous approach to the estimation of risk aversion and the subjective time discount rate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Booij, A.S.; van Praag, B.M.S.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we analyze a sample of 1832 individuals who responded to six randomly generated lottery questions that differ with respect to chance, prize and the timing of the draw. Using a model that explicitly allows for consumption smoothing, we obtain an estimate of relative risk aversion of 82.

  12. Optimal conservation resource allocation under variable economic and ecological time discounting rates in boreal forest

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mazziotta, Adriano; Montesino Pouzols, Federico; Mönkkönen, Mikko

    2016-01-01

    Resource allocation to multiple alternative conservation actions is a complex task. A common trade-off occurs between protection of smaller, expensive, high-quality areas versus larger, cheaper, partially degraded areas. We investigate optimal allocation into three actions in boreal forest: current......, and accounting for present revenues from timber harvesting. The present analysis assesses the cost-effective conditions to allocate resources into an inexpensive conservation strategy that nevertheless has potential to produce high ecological values in the future....

  13. Longitudinal Associations Among Religiousness, Delay Discounting, and Substance Use Initiation in Early Adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim-Spoon, Jungmeen; McCullough, Michael E; Bickel, W K; Farley, Julee P; Longo, Gregory S

    2015-03-01

    Prior research indicates that religiousness is related negatively to adolescent health risk behaviors, yet how such protective effects operate is not well understood. This study examined the longitudinal associations among organizational and personal religiousness, delay discounting, and substance use initiation (alcohol, cigarette, and marijuana use). The sample comprised 106 early adolescents (10-13 years of age, 52% female) who were not using substances at Time 1. Path analyses suggested that high levels of personal religiousness at Time 1 were related to low levels of substance use at Time 2 (2.4 years later), mediated by low levels of delay discounting. Delay discounting appears to be an important contributor to the protective effect of religiousness on the development of substance use among adolescents.

  14. A discount ordering strategy in two-level supply chain: A case study of textile industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laleh Tashakori

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Supplier selection, inventory management and optimal lot sizing has been one of the most important issues in many industries especially in production planning issues associated with texture industry. The proposed model of this paper first introduces an algorithm to choose the best supplier and it determines the optimal lot size using discount strategy. The proposed model of this paper considers different influencing factors such as location, quality of materials, cost, and mutual trust for supplier selection, determines their relative importance weights and then a discounting method is used to determine the ordering lot-size. The preliminary results indicate that the proposed model of this paper can be implemented in texture industry, very efficiently since the ordering discount policy is not sensitive to changes on inventory holding and setup expenditures.

  15. Tobacco demand, delay discounting, and smoking topography among smokers with and without psychopathology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farris, Samantha G; Aston, Elizabeth R; Abrantes, Ana M; Zvolensky, Michael J

    2017-10-01

    Tobacco demand (i.e., relative value attributed to a given reinforcer) and delay discounting (i.e., relative preference for smaller immediate rewards over larger delayed rewards) are two behavioral economic processes that are linked to the progression of problematic substance use. These processes have not been studied among those with psychopathology, a vulnerable group of smokers. The current study examined differences in tobacco demand and delay discounting, and their association with smoking topography among smokers with (n=43) and without (n=64) past-year psychopathology. Adult daily smokers (n=107,M age =43.5; SD=9.7) participated in a study on "smoking behavior." Past-year psychological disorders were assessed via a clinician-administered diagnostic assessment. All subjects participated in an ad libitum smoking trial and then completed an assessment of delay discounting (Monetary Choice Questionnaire) and tobacco demand (Cigarette Purchase Task) approximately 45-60min post-smoking. Smokers with psychopathology, compared to those without, had significantly higher demand intensity and maximum expenditure on tobacco (O max ), but did not differ on other demand indices or delay discounting. Smokers with psychopathology had shorter average inter-puff intervals and shorter time to cigarette completion than smokers without psychopathology. Tobacco demand and delay discounting measures were significantly intercorrelated among smokers with psychopathology, but not those without. Both behavioral economic measures were associated with specific aspects of smoking topography in smokers with psychopathology. The association between tobacco demand and delay discounting is evident among smokers with psychopathology and both measures were most consistently related to smoking behavior. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. The selection problem for discounted Hamilton–Jacobi equations: some non-convex cases

    KAUST Repository

    Gomes, Diogo A.; Mitake, Hiroyoshi; Tran, Hung V.

    2018-01-01

    Here, we study the selection problem for the vanishing discount approximation of non-convex, first-order Hamilton–Jacobi equations. While the selection problem is well understood for convex Hamiltonians, the selection problem for non-convex Hamiltonians has thus far not been studied. We begin our study by examining a generalized discounted Hamilton–Jacobi equation. Next, using an exponential transformation, we apply our methods to strictly quasi-convex and to some non-convex Hamilton–Jacobi equations. Finally, we examine a non-convex Hamiltonian with flat parts to which our results do not directly apply. In this case, we establish the convergence by a direct approach.

  17. Insulin, Central Dopamine D2 Receptors, and Monetary Reward Discounting in Obesity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah A Eisenstein

    Full Text Available Animal research finds that insulin regulates dopamine signaling and reward behavior, but similar research in humans is lacking. We investigated whether individual differences in body mass index, percent body fat, pancreatic β-cell function, and dopamine D2 receptor binding were related to reward discounting in obese and non-obese adult men and women. Obese (n = 27; body mass index>30 and non-obese (n = 20; body mass index<30 adults were assessed for percent body fat with dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry and for β-cell function using disposition index. Choice of larger, but delayed or less certain, monetary rewards relative to immediate, certain smaller monetary rewards was measured using delayed and probabilistic reward discounting tasks. Positron emission tomography using a non-displaceable D2-specific radioligand, [11C](N-methylbenperidol quantified striatal D2 receptor binding. Groups differed in body mass index, percent body fat, and disposition index, but not in striatal D2 receptor specific binding or reward discounting. Higher percent body fat in non-obese women related to preference for a smaller, certain reward over a larger, less likely one (greater probabilistic discounting. Lower β-cell function in the total sample and lower insulin sensitivity in obese related to stronger preference for an immediate and smaller monetary reward over delayed receipt of a larger one (greater delay discounting. In obese adults, higher striatal D2 receptor binding related to greater delay discounting. Interestingly, striatal D2 receptor binding was not significantly related to body mass index, percent body fat, or β-cell function in either group. Our findings indicate that individual differences in percent body fat, β-cell function, and striatal D2 receptor binding may each contribute to altered reward discounting behavior in non-obese and obese individuals. These results raise interesting questions about whether and how striatal D2 receptor binding

  18. The selection problem for discounted Hamilton–Jacobi equations: some non-convex cases

    KAUST Repository

    Gomes, Diogo A.

    2018-01-26

    Here, we study the selection problem for the vanishing discount approximation of non-convex, first-order Hamilton–Jacobi equations. While the selection problem is well understood for convex Hamiltonians, the selection problem for non-convex Hamiltonians has thus far not been studied. We begin our study by examining a generalized discounted Hamilton–Jacobi equation. Next, using an exponential transformation, we apply our methods to strictly quasi-convex and to some non-convex Hamilton–Jacobi equations. Finally, we examine a non-convex Hamiltonian with flat parts to which our results do not directly apply. In this case, we establish the convergence by a direct approach.

  19. German Grocery Discounters: Dynamics and Regional Impact. the Case of Schleswig-Holstein (Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jürgens Ulrich

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Grocery discount stores have long dominated developments in the German food retail sector, and they continue to grow. This paper discusses the reasons for this long-term success based on internal decision-making parameters such as price, adjustment of product range, choice of location, and size of new stores. The result is significant customer acceptance, but also adverse developments viewed critically in various governance constellations. The paper is based on expert interviews and a comprehensive collection of data on grocery discount stores and supermarkets in the German federal state of Schleswig-Holstein

  20. Valuation of micro and small enterprises using the methodology multicriteria and method of discounted cash flow

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcus Vinicius Andrade de Lima

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a contribution to the method of discounted cash flow methodology using multicriteria decision aid. This methodology incorporates qualitative variables and subjective to the traditional method of discounted cash flows used in valuation companies. To illustrate the proposed method was a descriptive study of exploratory nature applied to a multicase. The intervention was in Micro and Small Enterprises (MSE from the chemical, pharmaceutical and tourism. As a result, the appraiser set the price of the business taking into account the result of mixing between the two methodologies.

  1. A Reduction in Delay Discounting by Using Episodic Future Imagination and the Association with Episodic Memory Capacity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Xiaochen; Kleinschmidt, Helena; Martin, Jason A; Han, Ying; Thelen, Manuela; Meiberth, Dix; Jessen, Frank; Weber, Bernd

    2016-01-01

    Delay discounting (DD) refers to the phenomenon that individuals discount future consequences. Previous studies showed that future imagination reduces DD, which was mediated by functional connectivity between medial prefrontal valuation areas and a key region for episodic memory (hippocampus). Future imagination involves an initial period of construction and a later period of elaboration, with the more elaborative latter period recruiting more cortical regions. This study examined whether elaborative future imagination modulated DD, and if so, what are the underlying neural substrates. It was assumed that cortical areas contribute to the modulation effect during the later period of imagination. Since future imagination is supported by episodic memory capacity, we additionally hypothesize that the neural network underlying the modulation effect is related to individual episodic memory capacity. Twenty-two subjects received an extensive interview on personal future events, followed by an fMRI DD experiment with and without the need to perform elaborative future imagination simultaneously. Subjects' episodic memory capacity was also assessed. Behavioral results replicate previous findings of a reduced discount rate in the DD plus imagination condition compared to the DD only condition. The behavioral effect positively correlated with: (i) subjective value signal changes in midline brain structures during the initial imagination period; and (ii) signal changes in left prefrontoparietal areas during the later imagination period. Generalized psychophysiological interaction (gPPI) analyses reveal positive correlations between the behavioral effect and functional connectivity among the following areas: right anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) and left hippocampus; left inferior parietal cortex (IPC) and left hippocampus; and left IPC and bilateral occipital cortices. These changes in functional connectivity are also associated with episodic memory capacity. A hierarchical

  2. A Tutorial on the Use of Excel 2010 and Excel for Mac 2011 for Conducting Delay-Discounting Analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, Derek D.; Kaplan, Brent A.; Brewer, Adam T.

    2012-01-01

    In recent years, researchers and practitioners in the behavioral sciences have profited from a growing literature on delay discounting. The purpose of this article is to provide readers with a brief tutorial on how to use Microsoft Office Excel 2010 and Excel for Mac 2011 to analyze discounting data to yield parameters for both the hyperbolic…

  3. 12 CFR 201.107 - Eligibility of demand paper for discount and as security for advances by Reserve Banks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Eligibility of demand paper for discount and as... BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM EXTENSIONS OF CREDIT BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS (REGULATION A) Interpretations § 201.107 Eligibility of demand paper for discount and as security for advances...

  4. 26 CFR 1.163-3 - Deduction for discount on bond issued on or before May 27, 1969.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... case of a callable bond, at the earlier call date) over the issue price of the bond (as defined in... 26 Internal Revenue 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Deduction for discount on bond issued on or... and Corporations § 1.163-3 Deduction for discount on bond issued on or before May 27, 1969. (a...

  5. The association between cingulate cortex glutamate concentration and delay discounting is mediated by resting state functional connectivity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schmaal, L.; Goudriaan, A.E.; van der Meer, J.; van den Brink, W.; Veltman, D.J.

    2012-01-01

    Humans vary in their ability to delay gratification and impulsive decision making is a common feature in various psychiatric disorders. The level of delay discounting is a relatively stable psychological trait, and therefore neural processes implicated in delay discounting are likely to be based on

  6. Delay Discounting of Video Game Players: Comparison of Time Duration Among Gamers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buono, Frank D; Sprong, Matthew E; Lloyd, Daniel P; Cutter, Christopher J; Printz, Destiny M B; Sullivan, Ryan M; Moore, Brent A

    2017-02-01

    Video game addiction or Internet game disorder, as proposed by the DSM-5 (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition), has similar criterion characteristics to other impulse control disorders. There is limited research examining video game addiction within a behavioral economic framework using delay discounting. The current study evaluated delay-discounting patterns of money and video game play by usual weekly hours of video game play. A total of 104 participants were split into 1 of 3 groups of video game players (low, medium, and high) and were asked to complete a monetary and video game discounting procedure through an online survey. Results showed significant differences between groups within both the monetary (p = 0.003) and video game discounting procedures (p = 0.004). Additionally, a positive linear relationship was noted between the groups across both procedures. The results of the current article reinforce previous findings that more hours of video game use are associated with greater impulsivity and provide implications for future research.

  7. The impact of national brand introductions on hard-discounter image and share-of-wallet

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lourenco, C.J.; Gijsbrechts, E.

    2013-01-01

    Hard-discounters (HDs) such as Aldi and Lidl are increasingly introducing national brands (NBs) into their private label (PL) dominated assortments. While there is evidence that this enhances sales in the categories where such NBs are added, little is known about how it affects consumers' overall

  8. Wait for It: Delay-Discounting and Academic Performance among an Irish Adolescent Sample

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freeney, Yseult; O'Connell, Michael

    2010-01-01

    Beyond cognitive ability and family background, are there other significant determinants of educational attainment? From research in psychology, economics, education and criminology, one powerful influence is the ability to delay gratification, operationalised in this paper as "delay-discounting". It is intuitively plausible that the…

  9. A Seasoned Instructor's New Look at Fixed-Income Securities: An Exercise Using Discounted Bonds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Secrest, Thomas W.

    2012-01-01

    Having returned to teaching the basics of pricing fixed-income securities after several years, the author recalls the difficulty students have in understanding the total return provided by fixed-income securities that are purchased at either a discount or premium from face value. This teaching note attempts to clarify the concept by suggesting…

  10. On Discounting of Health Gains from Human Papillomavirus Vaccination : Effects of Different Approaches

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Westra, Tjalke A.; Parouty, Mehraj; Brouwer, Werner B.; Beutels, Philippe H.; Rogoza, Raina M.; Rozenbaum, Mark H.; Daemen, Toos; Wilschut, Jan C.; Boersma, Cornelis; Postma, Maarten J.

    Objectives: Discounting has long been a matter of controversy in the field of health economic evaluations. How to weigh future health effects has resulted in ongoing discussions. These discussions are imminently relevant for health care interventions with current costs but future benefits. Different

  11. Temporal Discounting of Hypothetical Monetary Rewards by Adolescents, Adults, and Older Adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whelan, Robert; McHugh, Louise A.

    2009-01-01

    The present experiment examined temporal discounting across 3 different age bands: adolescents, adults, and older adults (mean ages 14, 46, and 73 years, respectively). A computerized task was employed in which participants were asked to choose between larger rewards available at a specified time in the future--either 100 British Pounds or 1,000…

  12. Transactional Problem Content in Cost Discounting: Parallel Effects for Probability and Delay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Stephen; Oaksford, Mike

    2011-01-01

    Four experiments investigated the effects of transactional content on temporal and probabilistic discounting of costs. Kusev, van Schaik, Ayton, Dent, and Chater (2009) have shown that content other than gambles can alter decision-making behavior even when associated value and probabilities are held constant. Transactions were hypothesized to lead…

  13. Ordering Cost Reduction in Inventory Model with Defective Items and Backorder Price Discount

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karuppuchamy Annadurai

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In the real market, as unsatisfied demands occur, the longer the length of lead time is, the smaller the proportion of backorder would be. In order to make up for the inconvenience and even the losses of royal and patient customers, the supplier may offer a backorder price discount to secure orders during the shortage period. Also, ordering policies determined by conventional inventory models may be inappropriate for the situation in which an arrival lot contains some defective items. To compensate for the inconvenience of backordering and to secure orders, the supplier may offer a price discount on the stockout item. The purpose of this study is to explore a coordinated inventory model including defective arrivals by allowing the backorder price discount and ordering cost as decision variables. There are two inventory models proposed in this paper, one with normally distributed demand and another with distribution free demand. A computer code using the software Matlab 7.0 is developed to find the optimal solution and present numerical examples to illustrate the models. The results in the numerical examples indicate that the savings of the total cost are realized through ordering cost reduction and backorder price discount.

  14. Victims' time discounting 2.5 years after the Wenchuan earthquake: an ERP study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jin-Zhen Li

    Full Text Available Time discounting refers to the fact that the subjective value of a reward decreases as the delay until its occurrence increases. The present study investigated how time discounting has been affected in survivors of the magnitude-8.0 Wenchuan earthquake that occurred in China in 2008.Nineteen earthquake survivors and 22 controls, all school teachers, participated in the study. Event-related brain potentials (ERPs for time discounting tasks involving gains and losses were acquired in both the victims and controls.The behavioral data replicated our previous findings that delayed gains were discounted more steeply after a disaster. ERP results revealed that the P200 and P300 amplitudes were increased in earthquake survivors. There was a significant group (earthquake vs. non-earthquake × task (gain vs. loss interaction for the N300 amplitude, with a marginally significantly reduced N300 for gain tasks in the experimental group, which may suggest a deficiency in inhibitory control for gains among victims.The results suggest that post-disaster decisions might involve more emotional (System 1 and less rational thinking (System 2 in terms of a dual-process model of decision making. The implications for post-disaster intervention and management are also discussed.

  15. Victims' time discounting 2.5 years after the Wenchuan earthquake: an ERP study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jin-Zhen; Gui, Dan-Yang; Feng, Chun-Liang; Wang, Wen-Zhong; Du, Bo-Qi; Gan, Tian; Luo, Yue-Jia

    2012-01-01

    Time discounting refers to the fact that the subjective value of a reward decreases as the delay until its occurrence increases. The present study investigated how time discounting has been affected in survivors of the magnitude-8.0 Wenchuan earthquake that occurred in China in 2008. Nineteen earthquake survivors and 22 controls, all school teachers, participated in the study. Event-related brain potentials (ERPs) for time discounting tasks involving gains and losses were acquired in both the victims and controls. The behavioral data replicated our previous findings that delayed gains were discounted more steeply after a disaster. ERP results revealed that the P200 and P300 amplitudes were increased in earthquake survivors. There was a significant group (earthquake vs. non-earthquake) × task (gain vs. loss) interaction for the N300 amplitude, with a marginally significantly reduced N300 for gain tasks in the experimental group, which may suggest a deficiency in inhibitory control for gains among victims. The results suggest that post-disaster decisions might involve more emotional (System 1) and less rational thinking (System 2) in terms of a dual-process model of decision making. The implications for post-disaster intervention and management are also discussed.

  16. Delay discounting, risk-taking, and rejection sensitivity among individuals with Internet and Video Gaming Disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinstein, Aviv; Abu, Hodaya Ben; Timor, Ayelet; Mama, Yaniv

    2016-12-01

    Background and aims There is a previous evidence for impulsivity in individuals with Internet and Video Gaming Disorders. The aim of this study was to examine whether Internet and video game addictions are associated with experiential delay discounting, risk-taking, and sensitivity to social rejection using computerized tasks and questionnaires. Methods Twenty participants (mean age 24, SD = 1.55) with high score on the Problematic Online Gaming Questionnaire (POGQ) were compared with 20 participants (mean age 24.8, SD = 1.34) with low score on the POGQ. They performed on computerized Balloon Analog Risk Task and Experiential Delay discounting Task (EDT), and filled in the sensitivity to social rejection questionnaire. Results Participants with high POGQ scores had lower measures of delay discounting, higher measures of risk-taking, and higher measures of sensitivity to social rejection compared with participants with low POGQ scores. Discussion The results of this study support the previous evidence of risk-taking and provide new evidence for difficulties in delay discounting and sensitivity to social rejection among those who score high on Internet and video games. Conclusions The results suggest that Internet- and video game-addicted individuals seek immediate gratification and cannot wait for later reward. Furthermore, these individuals spend time in the virtual world, where they feel safe, and avoid social interactions presumably due to fears of social rejection.

  17. Age, gender and deterrability: Are younger male drivers more likely to discount the future?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freeman, James; Kaye, Sherrie-Anne; Truelove, Verity; Davey, Jeremy

    2017-07-01

    Utilizing the Classical Deterrence theory and Stafford and Warr's (1993) reconceptualized model of deterrence, the current study examined whether age, gender, and discounting the future tendencies influence perceptions of being apprehended for speeding offences. Licensed motorists (N=700; 57% female) in Queensland (Australia) were recruited to complete a self-report questionnaire that measured perceptual deterrence, speeding related behaviors and discounting the future tendencies. Data were analyzed utilizing descriptive, bivariate and multivariate regressions. Significant (albeit weak) positive correlations were found between age and perceptions of apprehension certainty. Males were significantly more likely to report higher incidences of speeding (including while avoiding detection) compared to females. In contrast, females were more likely to perceive high levels of apprehension certainty and consider impending penalties to be more severe. At a multivariate level, discounting the future tendencies (in addition to being male, reporting lower levels of perceptual severity and swiftness, and more instances of punishment avoidance) were predictive of lower perceptual certainty levels. This study is one of the first to reveal that being male and having a tendency to discount the consequences of the future may directly influence drivers' perceptual deterrence levels. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Discounted semi-Markov decision processes : linear programming and policy iteration

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wessels, J.; van Nunen, J.A.E.E.

    1975-01-01

    For semi-Markov decision processes with discounted rewards we derive the well known results regarding the structure of optimal strategies (nonrandomized, stationary Markov strategies) and the standard algorithms (linear programming, policy iteration). Our analysis is completely based on a primal

  19. Discounted semi-Markov decision processes : linear programming and policy iteration

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wessels, J.; van Nunen, J.A.E.E.

    1974-01-01

    For semi-Markov decision processes with discounted rewards we derive the well known results regarding the structure of optimal strategies (nonrandomized, stationary Markov strategies) and the standard algorithms (linear programming, policy iteration). Our analysis is completely based on a primal

  20. Using Proactivity, Time Discounting, and the Theory of Planned Behavior to Identify Predictors of Retirement Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffin, Barbara; Loe, David; Hesketh, Beryl

    2012-01-01

    This study developed and tested a model to identify the predictors of retirement planning based on an extension of the theory of planned behavior ([TPB], Ajzen, 1991) that included individual differences in proactivity and time discounting. The results showed that personal attitudes, sense of control, social influence, and stable traits have a…

  1. Children's Conceptions of Work and Play: Exploring an Alternative to the Discounting Principle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hennessey, Beth A.; Berger, Andrea R.

    Factors such as an expected reward have been shown to severely undermine individuals' intrinsic interest in a given task. This "overjustification effect," or "discounting principle," has been demonstrated across the life span, except in the case of young children, who have been shown to be incapable of engaging in this…

  2. Distinct age-related differences in temporal discounting and risk taking in adolescents and young adults

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Water, E. de; Cillessen, A.H.N.; Scheres, A.P.J.

    2014-01-01

    Age-related differences in temporal discounting (TD) and risk taking, and their association, were examined in adolescents and young adults (n=337) aged 12-27years. Since monetary rewards are typically used in TD and risk-taking tasks, the association between monetary reward valuation and age and

  3. 26 CFR 1.6049-8 - Interest and original issue discount paid to residents of Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... residents of Canada. 1.6049-8 Section 1.6049-8 Internal Revenue INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF THE... original issue discount paid to residents of Canada. (a) Interest subject to reporting requirement. For... nonresident alien individual is an individual who resides in Canada and is not a United States citizen. The...

  4. Future Discounting by Slum-Dwelling Youth versus University Students in Rio de Janeiro

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, Dandara; Victor, Tania; Seidl-de-Moura, Maria Lucia; Daly, Martin

    2013-01-01

    We compared Future Discounting (FD, preference for smaller, sooner rewards over larger, later ones) by 160 Brazilian youth (16-30 years old; 71 women and 89 men). University students and slum-dwelling (favela) youth were compared. Participants completed a monetary FD task, a scale of youngsters' view of their neighborhood, and self-reported…

  5. Resource Slack and Propensity to Discount Delayed Investments of Time Versus Money

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zauberman, Gal; Lynch, John G.

    2005-01-01

    The authors demonstrate that people discount delayed outcomes as a result of perceived changes over time in supplies of slack. Slack is the perceived surplus of a given resource available to complete a focal task. The present research shows that, in general, people expect slack for time to be greater in the future than in the present. Typically,…

  6. Save or (over-)spend? : The impact of hard-discounter shopping on consumers' grocery outlay

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gijsbrechts, Els; Campo, K.; Vroegrijk, M.J.J.

    An increasing number of consumers have come to patronize a hard discounter (HD) to save on their grocery budget. Given the HDs' rock-bottom prices, a complete switch from the traditional supermarket (TS) to the HD format would, indeed, substantially reduce grocery spending. However, consumers

  7. Determining Optimal Discount Policies for a Supplier in B2B Relationships

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buhayenko, Viktoryia; van Eikenhorst, Erik

    the total discount offered is greater than their total cost increase. This research assumes zero or low price elasticity of the demand, thus lower prices do not result in greater total demand, they only affect when orders will be placed. A heuristic solution is given by separating the problem into when...

  8. Delay discounting mediates the association between posterior insular cortex volume and social media addiction symptoms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turel, Ofir; He, Qinghua; Brevers, Damien; Bechara, Antoine

    2018-04-25

    Addiction-like symptoms in relation to excessive and compulsive social media use are common in the general population. Because they can lead to various adverse effects, there is a growing need to understand the brain systems and processes that are involved in potential social media addiction. We focus on the morphology of the posterior subdivision of the insular cortex (i.e., the insula), because it has been shown to be instrumental to supporting the maintenance of substance addictions and problematic behaviors. Assuming that social media addiction shares neural similarities with more established ones and consistent with evidence from the neuroeconomics domain, we further examine one possible reason for this association-namely that insular morphology influences one's delay discounting and that this delay discounting contributes to exaggerated preference for immediate social media rewards and consequent addiction-like symptoms. Based on voxel-based morphometry techniques applied to MRI scans of 32 social media users, we show that the gray matter volumes of the bilateral posterior insula are negatively associated with social media addiction symptoms. We further show that this association is mediated by delay discounting. This provides initial evidence that insular morphology can be associated with potential social media addiction, in part, through its contribution to poor foresight and impulsivity as captured by delay discounting.

  9. 26 CFR 1.381(c)(9)-1 - Amortization of bond discount or premium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 26 Internal Revenue 4 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Amortization of bond discount or premium. 1.381(c)(9)-1 Section 1.381(c)(9)-1 Internal Revenue INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY (CONTINUED) INCOME TAX (CONTINUED) INCOME TAXES Insolvency Reorganizations § 1.381(c)(9)-1 Amortization of...

  10. 26 CFR 1.803-6 - Amortization of premium and accrual of discount.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... amortization of premium and accrual of discount on bonds, notes, debentures, or other evidences of indebtedness... earliest call date specified therein as a day certain, the earliest interest payment date if it is callable or payable at such date, the earliest date at which it is callable at par, or such other call or...

  11. Consumer Acceptance of Genetically Modified Foods in Taiwan: Is Positive Discount the Same as Negative Premium?

    OpenAIRE

    Kaneko, Naoya; Chern, Wen S.

    2005-01-01

    This paper finds Taiwanese consumers' willingness to pay a premium on the non-GM food differs from their willingness to accept a discount on the GM food. It further finds that the non-GM choosers are more committed to the non-GM food than the GM choosers to the GM food.

  12. Generalized semi-Markovian dividend discount model: risk and return

    OpenAIRE

    D'Amico, Guglielmo

    2016-01-01

    The article presents a general discrete time dividend valuation model when the dividend growth rate is a general continuous variable. The main assumption is that the dividend growth rate follows a discrete time semi-Markov chain with measurable space. The paper furnishes sufficient conditions that assure finiteness of fundamental prices and risks and new equations that describe the first and second order price-dividend ratios. Approximation methods to solve equations are provided and some new...

  13. Heroin delay discounting: Modulation by pharmacological state, drug-use impulsivity, and intelligence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoltman, Jonathan J K; Woodcock, Eric A; Lister, Jamey J; Lundahl, Leslie H; Greenwald, Mark K

    2015-12-01

    Delay discounting (DD) refers to how rapidly an individual devalues goods based on delays to receipt. DD usually is considered a trait variable but can be state dependent, yet few studies have assessed commodity valuation at short, naturalistically relevant time intervals that might enable state-dependent analysis. This study aimed to determine whether drug-use impulsivity and intelligence influence heroin DD at short (ecologically relevant) delays during two pharmacological states (heroin satiation and withdrawal). Out-of-treatment, intensive heroin users (n = 170; 53.5% African American; 66.7% male) provided complete DD data during imagined heroin satiation and withdrawal. Delays were 3, 6, 12, 24, 48, 72, and 96 hours; maximum delayed heroin amount was thirty $10 bags. Indifference points were used to calculate area under the curve (AUC). We also assessed drug-use impulsivity (subscales from the Impulsive Relapse Questionnaire [IRQ]) and estimated intelligence (Shipley IQ) as predictors of DD. Heroin discounting was greater (smaller AUC) during withdrawal than satiation. In regression analyses, lower intelligence and IRQ Capacity for Delay as well as higher IRQ Speed (to return to drug use) predicted greater heroin discounting in the satiation condition. Lower intelligence and higher IRQ Speed predicted greater discounting in the withdrawal condition. Sex, race, substance use variables, and other IRQ subscales were not significantly related to the withdrawal or satiation DD behavior. In summary, heroin discounting was temporally rapid, pharmacologically state dependent, and predicted by drug-use impulsivity and estimated intelligence. These findings highlight a novel and sensitive measure of acute DD that is easy to administer. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  14. Leveraging delay discounting for health: Can time delays influence food choice?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Appelhans, Bradley M; French, Simone A; Olinger, Tamara; Bogucki, Michael; Janssen, Imke; Avery-Mamer, Elizabeth F; Powell, Lisa M

    2018-03-15

    Delay discounting, the tendency to choose smaller immediate rewards over larger delayed rewards, is theorized to promote consumption of immediately rewarding but unhealthy foods at the expense of long-term weight maintenance and nutritional health. An untested implication of delay discounting models of decision-making is that selectively delaying access to less healthy foods may promote selection of healthier (immediately available) alternatives, even if they may be less desirable. The current study tested this hypothesis by measuring healthy versus regular vending machine snack purchasing before and during the implementation of a 25-s time delay on the delivery of regular snacks. Purchasing was also examined under a $0.25 discount on healthy snacks, a $0.25 tax on regular snacks, and the combination of both pricing interventions with the 25-s time delay. Across 32,019 vending sales from three separate vending locations, the 25-s time delay increased healthy snack purchasing from 40.1% to 42.5%, which was comparable to the impact of a $0.25 discount (43.0%). Combining the delay and the discount had a roughly additive effect (46.0%). However, the strongest effects were seen under the $0.25 tax on regular snacks (53.7%) and the combination of the delay and the tax (50.2%). Intervention effects varied substantially between vending locations. Importantly, time delays did not harm overall vending sales or revenue, which is relevant to the real-world feasibility of this intervention. More investigation is needed to better understand how the impact of time delays on food choice varies across populations, evaluate the effects of time delays on beverage vending choices, and extend this approach to food choices in contexts other than vending machines. ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02359916. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. In-gap discounts in Medicare Part D and specialty drug use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Jeah; Xu, Wendy Yi; Cheong, Chelim

    2017-09-01

    Specialty drugs can bring significant benefits to patients, but they can be expensive. Medicare Part D plans charge relatively high cost-sharing costs for specialty drugs. A provision in the Affordable Care Act reduced cost sharing in the Part D coverage gap phase in an attempt to mitigate the financial burden of beneficiaries with high drug spending. We examined the early impact of the Part D in-gap discount on specialty cancer drug use and patients' out-of-pocket (OOP) spending. Natural experimental design. We compared changes in outcomes before and after the in-gap discount among beneficiaries with and without low-income subsidies (LIS). Beneficiaries with LIS, who were not affected by the in-gap discount, made up the control group. We studied a random sample of elderly standalone prescription drug plan enrollees with relatively uncommon cancers (eg, leukemia, skin, pancreas, kidney, sarcomas, and non-Hodgkin lymphoma) between 2009 and 2013. We constructed 4 outcome variables annually: 1) use of any specialty cancer drug, 2) the number of specialty cancer drug fills, 3) total specialty drug spending, and 4) OOP spending for specialty cancer drugs. The in-gap discount did not influence specialty cancer drug use, but reduced annual OOP spending for specialty cancer drugs among users without LIS by $1108. In-gap discounts in Part D decreased patients' financial burden to some extent, but resulted in no change in specialty drug use. As demand for specialty drugs increases, it will be important to ensure patients' access to needed drugs, while simultaneously reducing their financial burden.

  16. Effects of NMDA receptor antagonists on probability discounting depend on the order of probability presentation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yates, Justin R; Breitenstein, Kerry A; Gunkel, Benjamin T; Hughes, Mallory N; Johnson, Anthony B; Rogers, Katherine K; Shape, Sara M

    Risky decision making can be measured using a probability-discounting procedure, in which animals choose between a small, certain reinforcer and a large, uncertain reinforcer. Recent evidence has identified glutamate as a mediator of risky decision making, as blocking the N-methyl-d-aspartate (NMDA) receptor with MK-801 increases preference for a large, uncertain reinforcer. Because the order in which probabilities associated with the large reinforcer can modulate the effects of drugs on choice, the current study determined if NMDA receptor ligands alter probability discounting using ascending and descending schedules. Sixteen rats were trained in a probability-discounting procedure in which the odds against obtaining the large reinforcer increased (n=8) or decreased (n=8) across blocks of trials. Following behavioral training, rats received treatments of the NMDA receptor ligands MK-801 (uncompetitive antagonist; 0, 0.003, 0.01, or 0.03mg/kg), ketamine (uncompetitive antagonist; 0, 1.0, 5.0, or 10.0mg/kg), and ifenprodil (NR2B-selective non-competitive antagonist; 0, 1.0, 3.0, or 10.0mg/kg). Results showed discounting was steeper (indicating increased risk aversion) for rats on an ascending schedule relative to rats on the descending schedule. Furthermore, the effects of MK-801, ketamine, and ifenprodil on discounting were dependent on the schedule used. Specifically, the highest dose of each drug decreased risk taking in rats in the descending schedule, but only MK-801 (0.03mg/kg) increased risk taking in rats on an ascending schedule. These results show that probability presentation order modulates the effects of NMDA receptor ligands on risky decision making. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. 75 FR 65710 - Current Value of Funds Rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-26

    ... percentage rate to be used in assessing interest charges for outstanding debts owed to the Government... DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY Fiscal Service Current Value of Funds Rate AGENCY: Financial Management Service, Fiscal Service, Treasury. ACTION: Notice of rate for use in Federal debt collection and discount...

  18. Is Every Smoker Interested in Price Promotions? An Evaluation of Price-Related Discounts by Cigarette Brands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Xin; Wang, Xu; Caraballo, Ralph S

    2016-01-01

    Raising unit price is one of the most effective ways of reducing cigarette consumption. A large proportion of US adult smokers use generic brands or price discounts in response to higher prices, which may mitigate the public health impacts of raising unit price. The main purpose of this study was to evaluate the retail price impact and the determinants of price-related discount use among US adult smokers by their most commonly used cigarette brand types. Data from the 2009-2010 National Adult Tobacco Survey, a telephone survey of US adults 18 years or older, was used to assess price-related discount use by cigarette brands. Price-related discounts included coupons, rebates, buy 1 get 1 free, 2 for 1, or any other special promotions. Multivariate logistic regression was used to assess sociodemographic and tobacco use determinants of discount use by cigarette brands. Discount use was most common among premium brand users (22.1%), followed by generic (13.3%) and other brand (10.8%) users. Among premium brand users, those who smoked 10 to 20 cigarettes per day were more likely to use discounts, whereas elderly smokers, non-Hispanic blacks, those with greater annual household income, dual users of cigarettes and other combustible tobacco products, and those who had no quit intentions were less likely to do so. Among generic brand users, those who had no quit intentions and those who smoked first cigarette within 60 minutes after waking were more likely to use discounts. Frequent use of discounts varies between smokers of premium and generic cigarette brands. Setting a high minimum price, together with limiting the use of coupons and promotions, may uphold the effect of cigarette excise taxes to reduce smoking prevalence.

  19. Strategy iteration is strongly polynomial for 2-player turn-based stochastic games with a constant discount factor

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Thomas Dueholm; Miltersen, Peter Bro; Zwick, Uri

    2011-01-01

    Ye showed recently that the simplex method with Dantzig pivoting rule, as well as Howard's policy iteration algorithm, solve discounted Markov decision processes (MDPs), with a constant discount factor, in strongly polynomial time. More precisely, Ye showed that both algorithms terminate after...... iterations. Second, and more importantly, we show that the same bound applies to the number of iterations performed by the strategy iteration (or strategy improvement) algorithm, a generalization of Howard's policy iteration algorithm used for solving 2-player turn-based stochastic games with discounted zero...

  20. Inventory Investment and the Real Interest Rate

    OpenAIRE

    Junayed, Sadaquat; Khan, Hashmat

    2009-01-01

    The relationship between inventory investment and the real interest rate has been difficult to assess empirically. Recent work has proposed a linear-quadratic inventory model with time-varying discount factor to identify the effects of the real interest rate on inventory investment. The authors show that this framework does not separately identify the effects of real interest rate on inventory investment from variables that determine the expected marginal cost of production. In other words, t...

  1. Concave utility, transaction costs, and risk in measuring discounting of delayed rewards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirby, Kris N; Santiesteban, Mariana

    2003-01-01

    Research has consistently found that the decline in the present values of delayed rewards as delay increases is better fit by hyperbolic than by exponential delay-discounting functions. However, concave utility, transaction costs, and risk each could produce hyperbolic-looking data, even when the underlying discounting function is exponential. In Experiments 1 (N = 45) and 2 (N = 103), participants placed bids indicating their present values of real future monetary rewards in computer-based 2nd-price auctions. Both experiments suggest that utility is not sufficiently concave to account for the superior fit of hyperbolic functions. Experiment 2 provided no evidence that the effects of transaction costs and risk are large enough to account for the superior fit of hyperbolic functions.

  2. BIS impulsivity and acute nicotine exposure are associated with discounting global consequences in the Harvard game.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogarth, Lee; Stillwell, David J; Tunney, Richard J

    2013-01-01

    The Barratt Impulsivity Scale (BIS) provides a transdiagnostic marker for a number of psychiatric conditions and drug abuse, but the precise psychological trait(s) tapped by this questionnaire remain obscure. To address this, 51 smokers completed in counterbalanced order the BIS, a delay discounting task and a Harvard game that measured choice between a response that yielded a high immediate monetary payoff but decreased opportunity to earn money overall (local choice) versus a response that yielded a lower immediate payoff but afforded a greater opportunity to earn overall (global choice). Individual level of BIS impulsivity and self-elected smoking prior to the study were independently associated with increased preference for the local over the global choice in the Harvard game, but not delay discounting. BIS impulsivity and acute nicotine exposure reflect a bias in the governance of choice by immediate reward contingencies over global consequences, consistent with contemporary dual-process instrumental learning theories. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  3. APPLICATION OF DIVIDEND DISCOUNT MODEL VALUATION AT MACEDONIAN STOCK-EXCHANGE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zoran Ivanovski

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Dividend discount model (DDM is the simplest model for valuing equities in finance. Many analysts belived that DDM is outmoded, but much of the intuition that drives Discounted Cash Flow (DCF valuation is embedded in the DDM model. There are also specific companies stocks where the DDM model remains a useful tool for estimating value. The basic task of these research is to examine if DDM models offer relevant and safe valuation of long-term securities at Macedonian Stock Exchange (MSE through the process of empirical valuation of random chosen stocks. This research helped us to identify problems in use of DDM valuation models at MSE, to determine causes for differences between the intrinsic values and the stock market prices and to determine basic parameters for implementation of valuation on Macedonian financial market. We find that DDM models are usefull only as additional tool beside relative and DCF stocks valuation at MSE.

  4. Mixed integer linear programming model for dynamic supplier selection problem considering discounts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adi Wicaksono Purnawan

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Supplier selection is one of the most important elements in supply chain management. This function involves evaluation of many factors such as, material costs, transportation costs, quality, delays, supplier capacity, storage capacity and others. Each of these factors varies with time, therefore, supplier identified for one period is not necessarily be same for the next period to supply the same product. So, mixed integer linear programming (MILP was developed to overcome the dynamic supplier selection problem (DSSP. In this paper, a mixed integer linear programming model is built to solve the lot-sizing problem with multiple suppliers, multiple periods, multiple products and quantity discounts. The buyer has to make a decision for some products which will be supplied by some suppliers for some periods cosidering by discount. To validate the MILP model with randomly generated data. The model is solved by Lingo 16.

  5. Model Persediaan Multi Item dengan Mempertimbangkan Faktor Kedaluwarsa dan Faktor All Unit Discount

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taufik Limansyah

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with determination of ordering policy for perishable goods, namely joint order policy or individual order policy. Expiration date is an important factor to be considered in the inventory system, especially in chemical or food industry. The problem becomes more complicated when the company has more goods with different expired dates. Another factor that has an influence to the inventory system is the supplier discount factor. A company can get benefit from this factor in order to reduce a total cost of inventory. In this paper, performance’s criteria used for the selected policy is ordering policy that minimize the total cost of inventory by considering the expiration date and all unit discount.

  6. Economic discounting in the assessment of detriment due to biosphere contamination by nuclear power enterprises

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Demin, V.F.; Ermakova, E.I.; Shevelev, Ya.V.

    1983-01-01

    In addition to existing concepts of total and partial expected collective doze, discounting expected collective dose Ssup(c)d is suggested to be introduced as the basis for estimation of the detriment due to biosphere contamination by wastes from enterprises of nuclear power. Unlike the total expected dose. the Ssup(c)d value is evaluated taking into account the discounting function known in economy. Calculation Ssup(c)d values for different stages of nuclear fuel cycle with a light-water reactor are given. For the cycle on the whole, the Ssup(c)d value is approximately by 2 or 3 orders of masnitude lower than the corresponding total expected collective dose

  7. Intention to Purchase Products under Volume Discount Scheme: A Conceptual Model and Research Propositions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Iranmanesh

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Many standard brands sell products under the volume discount scheme (VDS as more and more consumers are fond of purchasing products under this scheme. Despite volume discount being commonly practiced, there is a dearth of research, both conceptual and empirical, focusing on purchase characteristics factors and consumer internal evaluation concerning the purchase of products under VDS. To attempt to fill this void, this article develops a conceptual model on VDS with the intention of delineating the influence of the purchase characteristics factors on the consumer intention to purchase products under VDS and provides an explanation of their effects through consumer internal evaluation. Finally, the authors discuss the managerial implications of their research and offer guidelines for future empirical research.

  8. Discounting and Digit Ratio: Low 2D:4D Predicts Patience for a Sample of Females

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diego Aycinena

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Inter-temporal trade-offs are ubiquitous in human decision making. We study the relationship between preferences over such trade-offs and the ratio of the second digit to that of the forth (2D:4D, a marker for pre-natal exposure to sex hormones. Specifically, we study whether 2D:4D affects discounting. Our sample consists of 419 female participants of a Guatemalan conditional cash transfer program who take part in an experiment. Their choices in the convex time budget (CTB experimental task allow us to make inferences regarding their patience (discounting, while controlling for present-biasedness and preference for smoothing consumption (utility curvature. We find that women with lower digit ratios tend to be more patient.

  9. The discount framing in different pricing schemes: Combined versus partitioned pricing

    OpenAIRE

    Matthew Lee; Dr. Frankie Law

    2015-01-01

    Pricing is one of the most sophisticated and critical issues which managers have to face. It is obvious that managers have been undervaluing the behavioural and psychological perspective of pricing for many years. With a clear understanding of behavioural pricing, managers are able to make extra profit for their firms. In the current study, it was interesting to investigating exactly how manipulation of discounts in the combined pricing scheme and partitioned pricing scheme affects the purcha...

  10. Equivalence of ten different methods for valuing companies by cash flow discounting.

    OpenAIRE

    Fernandez, Pablo

    2003-01-01

    This paper shows that ten methods of company valuation using cash flow discounting (WACC; equity cash flow; capital cash flow; adjusted present value; residual income; EVA; business's risk-adjusted equity cash flow; business's risk-adjusted free cash flow; risk-free-adjusted equity cash flow; and risk-free-adjusted free cash flow) always give the same value when identical assumptions are used. This result is logical, since all the methods analyze the same reality based upon the same assumptio...

  11. Agricultural Credit Discount Fund – Agribusiness support credit line - Macedonian experience

    OpenAIRE

    Kovachev, Goran

    2012-01-01

    The main objective of this study is to emphasize the importance of creating special governmental refinancing institutions targeted towards strategic economic sectors. Such institution in Macedonia is Agricultural Credit Discount Fund, a separate unit within the Macedonian Bank for Development Promotion that administers a credit line meant to support the agribusiness. As it is commonly known agriculture is one of the most important economic sectors of the country. The ACDF's 'modus operandi' i...

  12. The Impact of Rotavirus Vaccination on Discounted Net Tax Revenue in Egypt: A Government Perspective Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Mark P. Connolly; Oleksandr Topachevskyi; Baudouin Standaert; Omayra Ortega; Maarten Postma

    2012-01-01

    Background:Background: We evaluated national rotavirus (RV) immunization programme costs to estimate how resulting changes in morbidity and mortality will influence government fiscal accounts over time. The assumption was that increased childhood survival in vaccinated cohorts leads to increased numbers of children consuming government resource, and an increased number of future tax payers. Abstract: Objective:Objective: Our objective was to evaluate the difference in lifetime discounted net ...

  13. A systematic review of temporal discounting in eating disorders and obesity:behavioural and neuroimaging findings

    OpenAIRE

    McClelland, Jessica; Dalton, Bethan; Kekic, Maria; Bartholdy, Savani; Campbell, Iain C; Schmidt, Ulrike

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Eating Disorders (ED) and obesity are suggested to involve a spectrum of self-regulatory control difficulties. Temporal discounting (TD) tasks have been used to explore this idea. This systematic review examines behavioural and neuroimaging TD data in ED and obesity.METHOD: Using PRISMA guidelines, we reviewed relevant articles in MEDLINE, PsycINFO and Embase from inception until 17th August 2016. Studies that reported behavioural differences in TD and/or TD neuroimaging data in ED...

  14. A Hybrid Dynamic Programming for Solving Fixed Cost Transportation with Discounted Mechanism

    OpenAIRE

    Farhad Ghassemi Tari

    2016-01-01

    The problem of allocating different types of vehicles for transporting a set of products from a manufacturer to its depots/cross docks, in an existing transportation network, to minimize the total transportation costs, is considered. The distribution network involves a heterogeneous fleet of vehicles, with a variable transportation cost and a fixed cost in which a discount mechanism is applied on the fixed part of the transportation costs. It is assumed that the number of available vehicles i...

  15. Marketing cigarettes when all else is unavailable: evidence of discounting in price-sensitive neighbourhoods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burton, Suzan; Williams, Kelly; Fry, Rae; Chapman, Kathy; Soulos, Greg; Tang, Anita; Walsberger, Scott; Egger, Sam

    2014-05-01

    Since price is both a key determinant of smoking and one of the few remaining marketing strategies available in countries without point-of-sale tobacco display, this study examines cigarette price variations in the Australian market and assesses whether those variations are consistent with price being used to increase or maintain smoking among price-sensitive groups. An audit of 1739 tobacco retailers was used to collect variations in the price of the best-selling Australian cigarette brand, as well as record retailer compliance with tobacco retailing legislation. We examined variation in pricing across outlet type, demographic variations (socioeconomic level, % in the area under 18 and % born in Australia), remoteness and retailer compliance with tobacco retailing legislation. Multipacks were offered by 27.8% of retailers, with the average pack price in a twin pack $1.32 (or 7.3%) cheaper than a single pack. Prices were significantly lower in some outlet types, in lower socioeconomic postcodes and in those with a higher percentage of people under 18. In contrast with other consumer goods, prices were lower (although not significantly so) outside major cities. The provision of substantial multi-pack discounts and lower prices in postcodes with a higher proportion of price-sensitive smokers (young people and those from lower socioeconomic groups) is consistent with targeted discounts being used as a tobacco marketing strategy. The results support policy interventions to counter selective discounts and to require disclosure of trade-based discounts. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  16. A Study of the Discount Retail Industry and Wal-Mart Corporation

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-06-05

    hamburgers they think of McDonalds. When someone thinks of discount retail Ihey think of Wal-Mart. Although someone wanting a hamburger can go Burger King ...SOURCES CONSULTED 117 in Executive Summary By no mistake, Wal-Mart is the reigning king in the retail industry. Conscientious decisions as to what...wilh J.C. Penney Company in 1940. After a five-year tour in the Army, he purchased a Ben Franklin variety store franchise in Newport, Arkansas in

  17. The effect of reinforcer magnitude on probability and delay discounting of experienced outcomes in a computer game task in humans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenhow, Anna K; Hunt, Maree J; Macaskill, Anne C; Harper, David N

    2015-09-01

    Delay and uncertainty of receipt both reduce the subjective value of reinforcers. Delay has a greater impact on the subjective value of smaller reinforcers than of larger ones while the reverse is true for uncertainty. We investigated the effect of reinforcer magnitude on discounting of delayed and uncertain reinforcers using a novel approach: embedding relevant choices within a computer game. Participants made repeated choices between smaller, certain, immediate outcomes and larger, but delayed or uncertain outcomes while experiencing the result of each choice. Participants' choices were generally well described by the hyperbolic discounting function. Smaller numbers of points were discounted more steeply than larger numbers as a function of delay but not probability. The novel experiential choice task described is a promising approach to investigating both delay and probability discounting in humans. © Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

  18. On the Expected Discounted Penalty Function for the Classical Risk Model with Potentially Delayed Claims and Random Incomes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huiming Zhu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We focus on the expected discounted penalty function of a compound Poisson risk model with random incomes and potentially delayed claims. It is assumed that each main claim will produce a byclaim with a certain probability and the occurrence of the byclaim may be delayed depending on associated main claim amount. In addition, the premium number process is assumed as a Poisson process. We derive the integral equation satisfied by the expected discounted penalty function. Given that the premium size is exponentially distributed, the explicit expression for the Laplace transform of the expected discounted penalty function is derived. Finally, for the exponential claim sizes, we present the explicit formula for the expected discounted penalty function.

  19. Future so bright? Delay discounting and consideration of future consequences predict academic performance among college drinkers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acuff, Samuel F; Soltis, Kathryn E; Dennhardt, Ashley A; Borsari, Brian; Martens, Matthew P; Murphy, James G

    2017-10-01

    College student drinking is a major public health concern and can result in a range of negative consequences, from acute health risks to decreased academic performance and drop out. Harm reduction interventions have been developed to reduce problems associated with drinking but there is a need to identify specific risk/protective factors related to academic performance among college drinkers. Behavioral economics suggests that chronic alcohol misuse reflects a dysregulated behavioral process or reinforcer pathology-alcohol is overvalued and the value of prosocial rewards are sharply discounted due, in part, to their delay. This study examined delay discounting, consideration of future consequences (CFC) and protective behavioral strategies (PBS) as predictors of academic success (grade point average; GPA) and engagement (time devoted to academic activities) among 393 college drinkers (61% female). In multivariate models, PBS were associated with greater academic engagement, but were not with academic success. Lower discounting of delayed rewards and greater CFC were associated with both academic success and engagement among drinkers. Previous research suggests that future time orientation is malleable, and the current results provide support for efforts to enhance future time orientation as part of alcohol harm-reduction approaches. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  20. On the Effects of Central Japan Expressway's Commuter Toll Discount Policy in Nagoya Area

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YING Jiangqian; Ryosuke Ando

    2007-01-01

    Road pricing policies have two equally important objectives that have to be considered: the optimal use of the road network and the fiscal sustainability for the management of the network. The aim of this work is to examine the effects on these two objectives of a recent pricing policy implemented in Japan's expressway networks. Recently the Nippon (Japan) Expressway Companies (NEXCO, operators of Japan's nation wide expressway network) have implemented several toll discount policies for users equipped with electronic toll collectors (ETCs). One of the policies is the commuter discount policy that discounts 50% for a journey on the NEXCO expressway no longer than 100 km during the commuting peak hours. This paper examines its effect on congestion reduction in the road network of Nagoya area and its influence on the use of expressways operated by another major local public expressway company in Nagoya. The congestion easing effect of this policy is compared with a potential marginal cost pricing scheme. These observations suggest that policy coordination regarding toll levels is needed for expressway corporations and transportation authorities for improving transportation efficiency of utilization of the whole network.

  1. Steep Delay Discounting and Addictive Behavior: A Meta-Analysis of Continuous Associations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amlung, Michael; Vedelago, Lana; Acker, John; Balodis, Iris; MacKillop, James

    2016-01-01

    Aims To synthesize continuous associations between delayed reward discounting (DRD) and both addiction severity and quantity-frequency (QF); to examine moderators of these relationships; and to investigate publication bias. Methods Meta-analysis of published studies examining continuous associations between DRD and addictive behaviors. Published, peer-reviewed studies on addictive behaviors (alcohol, tobacco, cannabis, stimulants, opiates, and gambling) were identified via PubMed, MEDLINE, and PsycInfo. Studies were restricted to DRD measures of monetary gains. Random effects meta-analysis was conducted using Pearson’s r as the effect size. Publication bias was evaluated using fail-safe N, Begg-Mazumdar and Egger’s tests, meta-regression of publication year and effect size, and imputation of missing studies. Results The primary meta-analysis revealed a small magnitude effect size that was highly significant (r = 0.14, p addictive behavior (p = 0.30) or DRD assessment (p = 0.90). Indices of publication bias suggested a modest impact of unpublished findings. Conclusions Delayed reward discounting is robustly associated with continuous measures of addiction severity and quantity-frequency. This relation is generally robust across type of addictive behavior and delayed reward discounting assessment modality. PMID:27450931

  2. The grateful are patient: Heightened daily gratitude is associated with attenuated temporal discounting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickens, Leah; DeSteno, David

    2016-06-01

    Past research has regularly linked the experience of affect to increased impatience and, thereby, decreased self-control. Given emerging work identifying the emotion gratitude as a fairly unique affective state capable of enhancing, rather than inhibiting, patience, the present study examined the association between chronically elevated gratitude and individual differences in temporal discounting. Participants' levels of gratitude were assessed in response to a standardized lab induction and then over a 3-week period prior to measurement of their financial patience in the form of an incentivized delay discounting task. Analyses revealed a strong relation between lab-based and naturally occurring gratitude levels, thereby confirming the validity of the daily online measures. Of import, mean levels of daily gratitude were significantly associated with increased patience in the form of decreased temporal discounting. As expected, no similar relation emerged for daily levels of happiness, thereby confirming the relative specificity of the positive state of gratitude. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  3. Social discounting involves modulation of neural value signals by temporoparietal junction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strombach, Tina; Weber, Bernd; Hangebrauk, Zsofia; Kenning, Peter; Karipidis, Iliana I.; Tobler, Philippe N.; Kalenscher, Tobias

    2015-01-01

    Most people are generous, but not toward everyone alike: generosity usually declines with social distance between individuals, a phenomenon called social discounting. Despite the pervasiveness of social discounting, social distance between actors has been surprisingly neglected in economic theory and neuroscientific research. We used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to study the neural basis of this process to understand the neural underpinnings of social decision making. Participants chose between selfish and generous alternatives, yielding either a large reward for the participant alone, or smaller rewards for the participant and another individual at a particular social distance. We found that generous choices engaged the temporoparietal junction (TPJ). In particular, the TPJ activity was scaled to the social-distance–dependent conflict between selfish and generous motives during prosocial choice, consistent with ideas that the TPJ promotes generosity by facilitating overcoming egoism bias. Based on functional coupling data, we propose and provide evidence for a biologically plausible neural model according to which the TPJ supports social discounting by modulating basic neural value signals in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex to incorporate social-distance–dependent other-regarding preferences into an otherwise exclusively own-reward value representation. PMID:25605887

  4. Pengembangan Model Persediaan Continuous Review dengan All-Unit Discount dan Faktor Kadaluwarsa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cherish Rikardo

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Paper ini membahas suatu model matematika untuk suatu sistem persediaan dengan mempertimbangkan adanya all-unit discount dan faktor kadaluwarsa. Permintaan barang bersifat deterministik yang merupakan fungsi dari waktu dan bergantung pada jumlah persediaan yang ada (inventory dependent demand, laju kadaluwarsa barang juga bergantung pada waktu dan tidak ada lead time. Model yang dibahas merupakan pengembangan dari Nagare dan Dutta [9] dengan menambah faktor all-unit discount dan laju kadaluwarsa yang bergantung pada waktu. Dari model yang dikembangkan akan ditentukan kuantitas pemesanan (economic order quantity dan waktu antar pemesanan yang optimum yang meminimumkan total biaya persediaan tahunan. Algoritma penentuan solusi optimum dari model yang dikembangkan dan contoh numerik sebagai ilustrasi dari permasalahan persediaan ini diberikan. Analisis sensitivitas model dengan melihat pengaruh laju kadaluwarsa dan laju permintaan terhadap kuantitas dan waktu antar pemesanan yang optimal juga diberikan. Dari hasil analisis sensitivitas diperoleh bahwa semakin besar laju kadaluwarsa, maka waktu antar pemesanan menjadi semakin singkat dan kuantitas pemesanan menjadi semakin sedikit.  Hal yang sama terjadi jika laju permintaan barang semakin besar.   Kata kunci:  Persediaan, kadaluwarsa, all-unit discount.

  5. Investigating the Impact of Cognitive Load and Motivation on Response Control in Relation to Delay Discounting in Children with ADHD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinelli, Mary K; Mostofsky, Stewart H; Rosch, Keri S

    2017-10-01

    Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is characterized by deficits in impulse control across a range of behaviors, from simple actions to those involving complex decision-making (e.g., preference for smaller-sooner versus larger later rewards). This study investigated whether changes in motor response control with increased cognitive load and motivational contingencies are associated with decision-making in the form of delay discounting among 8-12 year old children with and without ADHD. Children with ADHD (n = 26; 8 girls) and typically developing controls (n = 40; 11 girls) completed a standard go/no-go (GNG) task, a GNG task with motivational contingencies, a GNG task with increased cognitive load, and two measures of delay discounting: a real-time task in which the delays and immediately consumable rewards are experienced in real-time, and a classic task involving choices about money at longer delays. Children with ADHD, particularly girls, exhibited greater delay discounting than controls during the real-time discounting task, whereas diagnostic groups did not significantly differ on the classic discounting task. The effect of cognitive load on response control was uniquely associated with greater discounting on the real-time task for children with ADHD, but not for control children. The effect of motivational contingencies on response control was not significantly associated with delay discounting for either diagnostic group. The findings from this study help to inform our understanding of the factors that influence deficient self-control in ADHD, suggesting that impairments in cognitive control may contribute to greater delay discounting in ADHD.

  6. Alcohol Increases Delay and Probability Discounting of Condom-Protected Sex: A Novel Vector for Alcohol-Related HIV Transmission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Patrick S; Sweeney, Mary M; Herrmann, Evan S; Johnson, Matthew W

    2016-06-01

    Alcohol use, especially at binge levels, is associated with sexual HIV risk behavior, but the mechanisms through which alcohol increases sexual risk taking are not well-examined. Delay discounting, that is, devaluation of future consequences as a function of delay to their occurrence, has been implicated in a variety of problem behaviors, including risky sexual behavior. Probability discounting is studied with a similar framework as delay discounting, but is a distinct process in which a consequence is devalued because it is uncertain or probabilistic. Twenty-three, nondependent alcohol users (13 male, 10 female; mean age = 25.3 years old) orally consumed alcohol (1 g/kg) or placebo in 2 separate experimental sessions. During sessions, participants completed tasks examining delay and probability discounting of hypothetical condom-protected sex (Sexual Delay Discounting Task, Sexual Probability Discounting Task) and of hypothetical and real money. Alcohol decreased the likelihood that participants would wait to have condom-protected sex versus having immediate, unprotected sex. Alcohol also decreased the likelihood that participants would use an immediately available condom given a specified level of sexually transmitted infection (STI) risk. Alcohol did not affect delay discounting of money, but it did increase participants' preferences for larger, probabilistic monetary rewards over smaller, certain rewards. Acute, binge-level alcohol intoxication may increase sexual HIV risk by decreasing willingness to delay sex in order to acquire a condom in situations where one is not immediately available, and by decreasing sensitivity to perceived risk of STI contraction. These findings suggest that delay and probability discounting are critical, but heretofore unrecognized, processes that may mediate the relations between alcohol use and HIV risk. Copyright © 2016 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

  7. Food and beverage price discounts to improve health in remote Aboriginal communities: mixed method evaluation of a natural experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferguson, Megan; O'Dea, Kerin; Holden, Stacey; Miles, Eddie; Brimblecombe, Julie

    2017-02-01

    Retrospectively evaluate food price discounts in remote Aboriginal community stores. Four price discount strategies of 10% were designed in 2010, aiming to influence grocery, fruit, vegetables and diet soft-drink sales. This natural experiment across a group of stores was evaluated using an explanatory, sequential mixed method design through analysis of store point-of-sale, document, observation and interview data. The outcome was measured by change in: 1) percentage of grocery sales to total food and beverage; 2) fruit and vegetable sales; and 3) diet soft-drink sales. Qualitative data enabled the interpretation of outcomes through understanding perceived success and benefits, and enablers and barriers to implementation. Eighteen community stores and 54 informants participated. While targeted price discounts were considered important to improving health, no discernible effect was evident, due to inadequate design and communication of discount promotion, and probably inadequate magnitude of discount. Strategy impact on food and beverage sales was limited by promotion and magnitude of discount. Implication for Public Health: This study demonstrates key factors and commitment required to design, communicate, implement and monitor strategies to improve health in this challenging remote retail context. Evaluation of natural experiments can contribute evidence to policy-making. © 2016 The Authors.

  8. Dysfunctional default mode network and executive control network in people with Internet gaming disorder: Independent component analysis under a probability discounting task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, L; Wu, L; Lin, X; Zhang, Y; Zhou, H; Du, X; Dong, G

    2016-04-01

    The present study identified the neural mechanism of risky decision-making in Internet gaming disorder (IGD) under a probability discounting task. Independent component analysis was used on the functional magnetic resonance imaging data from 19 IGD subjects (22.2 ± 3.08 years) and 21 healthy controls (HC, 22.8 ± 3.5 years). For the behavioral results, IGD subjects prefer the risky to the fixed options and showed shorter reaction time compared to HC. For the imaging results, the IGD subjects showed higher task-related activity in default mode network (DMN) and less engagement in the executive control network (ECN) than HC when making the risky decisions. Also, we found the activities of DMN correlate negatively with the reaction time and the ECN correlate positively with the probability discounting rates. The results suggest that people with IGD show altered modulation in DMN and deficit in executive control function, which might be the reason for why the IGD subjects continue to play online games despite the potential negative consequences. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  9. A multi-objective model for closed-loop supply chain optimization and efficient supplier selection in a competitive environment considering quantity discount policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jahangoshai Rezaee, Mustafa; Yousefi, Samuel; Hayati, Jamileh

    2017-06-01

    Supplier selection and allocation of optimal order quantity are two of the most important processes in closed-loop supply chain (CLSC) and reverse logistic (RL). So that providing high quality raw material is considered as a basic requirement for a manufacturer to produce popular products, as well as achieve more market shares. On the other hand, considering the existence of competitive environment, suppliers have to offer customers incentives like discounts and enhance the quality of their products in a competition with other manufacturers. Therefore, in this study, a model is presented for CLSC optimization, efficient supplier selection, as well as orders allocation considering quantity discount policy. It is modeled using multi-objective programming based on the integrated simultaneous data envelopment analysis-Nash bargaining game. In this study, maximizing profit and efficiency and minimizing defective and functions of delivery delay rate are taken into accounts. Beside supplier selection, the suggested model selects refurbishing sites, as well as determining the number of products and parts in each network's sector. The suggested model's solution is carried out using global criteria method. Furthermore, based on related studies, a numerical example is examined to validate it.

  10. Sales Trends in Price-Discounted Cigarettes, Large Cigars, Little Cigars, and Cigarillos-United States, 2011-2016.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Teresa W; Falvey, Kyle; Gammon, Doris G; Loomis, Brett R; Kuiper, Nicole M; Rogers, Todd; King, Brian A

    2017-12-15

    Tobacco manufacturers continue to implement a range of pricing strategies to increase the affordability and consumption of tobacco products. To demonstrate the extent of retail- and brand-level price discounts at the point of sale, this study assessed national sales trends in price-discounted cigarettes, large cigars, little cigars, and cigarillos. Retail scanner data for tobacco product sales were obtained for convenience stores (C-store) and all-other-outlets-combined (AOC) from September 25, 2011, to January 9, 2016. The proportion of price-discounted sales, average nondiscounted unit price, and average discounted unit price were examined by product category and brand. JoinPoint regression was used to assess average monthly percentage change. Overall, price-discounted sales accounted for 11.3% of cigarette, 3.4% of large cigar, 4.1% of little cigar, and 3.9% of cigarillo sales. The average difference between nondiscounted and discounted prices was 25.5% (C-store) and 36.7% (AOC) for cigarettes; 11.0% (C-store) and 11.2% (AOC) for large cigars; 19.2% (C-store) and 9.6% (AOC) for little cigars; and 5.3% (C-store) and 14.7% (AOC) for cigarillos. Furthermore, price-discounted sales of top-selling tobacco brands comprised up to 36% of cigarette, 7.4% of large cigar, 7.7% of little cigar, and 4.2% of cigarillo unit sales. These findings highlight the use of price discounts by tobacco manufacturers to reduce the cost of cigarettes, large cigars, little cigars, and cigarillos to consumers. These sales patterns underscore the importance of sustained efforts to implement evidence-based strategies to increase prices and reduce availability and consumption of combustible tobacco in the United States. This study highlights the prevalence and provides a baseline of price-discounted cigarettes, large cigars, little cigars, and cigarillos. Surveillance of tobacco sales data, including state-level trends and additional product types, is critical for informing approaches to

  11. Interest rate risk of life insurers: Evidence from accounting data

    OpenAIRE

    Möhlmann, Axel

    2017-01-01

    Life insurers are exposed to interest rate risk, and their liability side is typically more sensitive to interest rate changes than their asset side. This paper develops an accounting-based measure of interest rate sensitivity. My approach uses the coexistence of historical cost and market value accounting, which permits the observation of valuations for different discount rates. Using microdata, I show that German life insurers have a significant exposure to interest rate risk. However, ther...

  12. "What time is my next meal?" delay-discounting individuals choose smaller portions under conditions of uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmerman, Annie R; Ferriday, Danielle; Davies, Sarah R; Martin, Ashley A; Rogers, Peter J; Mason, Alice; Brunstrom, Jeffrey M

    2017-09-01

    'Dietary' delay discounting is typically framed as a trade-off between immediate rewards and long-term health concerns. Our contention is that prospective thinking also occurs over shorter periods, and is engaged to select portion sizes based on the interval between meals (inter-meal interval; IMI). We sought to assess the extent to which the length of an IMI influences portion-size selection. We predicted that delay discounters would show 'IMI insensitivity' (relative lack of concern about hunger or fullness between meals). In particular, we were interested in participants' sensitivity to an uncertain IMI. We hypothesized that when meal times were uncertain, delay discounters would be less responsive and select smaller portion sizes. Participants (N = 90) selected portion sizes for lunch. In different trials, they were told to expect dinner at 5pm, 9pm, and either 5pm or 9pm (uncertain IMI). Individual differences in future-orientation were measured using a monetary delay-discounting task. Participants chose larger portions when the IMI was longer (p relationship between BMI and smaller portion selection in uncertainty (p < 0.05). This is the first study to report an association between delay discounting and IMI insensitivity. We reason that delay discounters selected smaller portions because they were less sensitive to the uncertain IMI, and overlooked concerns about potential future hunger. These findings are important because they illustrate that differences in discounting are expressed in short-term portion-size decisions and suggest that IMI insensitivity increases when meal timings are uncertain. Further research is needed to confirm whether these findings generalise to other populations. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  13. Monetary discounting and ventral striatal dopamine receptor availability in nontreatment-seeking alcoholics and social drinkers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oberlin, Brandon G; Albrecht, Daniel S; Herring, Christine M; Walters, James W; Hile, Karen L; Kareken, David A; Yoder, Karmen K

    2015-06-01

    Dopamine (DA) in the ventral striatum (VST) has long been implicated in addiction pathologies, yet its role in temporal decision-making is not well-understood. To determine if VST DA D2 receptor availability corresponds with greater impulsive choice in both nontreatment-seeking alcoholics (NTS) and social drinkers (SD). NTS subjects (n = 10) and SD (n = 13) received PET scans at baseline with the D2/D3 radioligand [(11)C]raclopride (RAC). Outside the scanner, subjects performed a delay discounting procedure with monetary rewards. RAC binding potential (BPND) was estimated voxelwise, and correlations were performed to test for relationships between VST BPND and delay discounting performance. Self-reported impulsivity was also tested for correlations with BPND. Across all subjects, greater impulsive choice for $20 correlated with lower BPND in the right VST. NTS showed greater impulsive choice than SD and were more impulsive by self-report. Across all subjects, the capacity of larger rewards to reduce impulsive choice (the magnitude effect) correlated negatively (p = 0.028) with problematic alcohol use (AUDIT) scores. Self-reported impulsivity did not correlate with BPND in VST. Preference for immediate reinforcement may reflect greater endogenous striatal DA or lower D2 number, or both. Alcoholic status did not mediate significant effects on VST BPND, suggesting minimal effects from alcohol exposure. The apparent lack of BPND correlation with self-reported impulsivity highlights the need for objective behavioral assays in the study of the neurochemical substrates of behavior. Finally, our results suggest that the magnitude effect may be more sensitive to alcohol-induced problems than single discounting measures.

  14. Applying nonlinear MODM model to supply chain management with quantity discount policy under complex fuzzy environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhe Zhang

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The aim of this paper is to deal with the supply chain management (SCM with quantity discount policy under the complex fuzzy environment, which is characterized as the bi-fuzzy variables. By taking into account the strategy and the process of decision making, a bi-fuzzy nonlinear multiple objective decision making (MODM model is presented to solve the proposed problem.Design/methodology/approach: The bi-fuzzy variables in the MODM model are transformed into the trapezoidal fuzzy variables by the DMs's degree of optimism ?1 and ?2, which are de-fuzzified by the expected value index subsequently. For solving the complex nonlinear model, a multi-objective adaptive particle swarm optimization algorithm (MO-APSO is designed as the solution method.Findings: The proposed model and algorithm are applied to a typical example of SCM problem to illustrate the effectiveness. Based on the sensitivity analysis of the results, the bi-fuzzy nonlinear MODM SCM model is proved to be sensitive to the possibility level ?1.Practical implications: The study focuses on the SCM under complex fuzzy environment in SCM, which has a great practical significance. Therefore, the bi-fuzzy MODM model and MO-APSO can be further applied in SCM problem with quantity discount policy.Originality/value: The bi-fuzzy variable is employed in the nonlinear MODM model of SCM to characterize the hybrid uncertain environment, and this work is original. In addition, the hybrid crisp approach is proposed to transferred to model to an equivalent crisp one by the DMs's degree of optimism and the expected value index. Since the MODM model consider the bi-fuzzy environment and quantity discount policy, so this paper has a great practical significance.

  15. Examination of a recommended algorithm for eliminating nonsystematic delay discounting response sets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Thomas J; Redner, Ryan; Skelly, Joan M; Higgins, Stephen T

    2015-09-01

    To examine (1) whether use of a recommended algorithm (Johnson and Bickel, 2008) improves upon conventional statistical model fit (R(2)) for identifying nonsystematic response sets in delay discounting (DD) data, (2) whether removing such data meaningfully effects research outcomes, and (3) to identify participant characteristics associated with nonsystematic response sets. Discounting of hypothetical monetary rewards was assessed among 349 pregnant women (231 smokers and 118 recent quitters) via a computerized task comparing $1000 at seven future time points with smaller values available immediately. Nonsystematic response sets were identified using the algorithm and conventional statistical model fit (R(2)). The association between DD and quitting was analyzed with and without nonsystematic response sets to examine whether the inclusion or exclusion impacts this relationship. Logistic regression was used to examine whether participant sociodemographics were associated with nonsystematic response sets. The algorithm excluded fewer cases than the R(2) method (14% vs. 16%), and was not correlated with logk as is R(2). The relationship between logk and the clinical outcome (spontaneous quitting) was unaffected by exclusion methods; however, other variables in the model were affected. Lower educational attainment and younger age were associated with nonsystematic response sets. The algorithm eliminated data that were inconsistent with the nature of discounting and retained data that were orderly. Neither method impacted the smoking/DD relationship in this data set. Nonsystematic response sets are more likely among younger and less educated participants, who may need extra training or support in DD studies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Discounts on fruit and vegetables combined with a space management intervention increased sales in supermarkets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toft, U; Winkler, L L; Mikkelsen, B E; Bloch, P; Glümer, C

    2017-04-01

    To examine the effects of two interventions on consumer purchases of fruits and vegetables (F&V) on the Danish island of Bornholm: a 20% discount on F&V combined with improved shelf-space allocation, and improved shelf-space allocation alone. A space management intervention to promote F&V sales was performed in two large discount supermarkets on Bornholm in Denmark for 3 months (September-November 2012). In addition, a 20% discount on F&V was introduced for 3 months in one of the supermarkets ('space + price'). The effect was evaluated using sales data from the two intervention supermarkets and three control supermarkets from the same supermarket chain but in Odsherred, Denmark (control area). Both the effect on sales of fresh F&V and potential unhealthy substitution effects were evaluated using multi-level regression analyses. During the price intervention period, the index number for sales of fresh vegetables increased by 22.2% (P=0.001) in the 'space + price' intervention supermarket compared with the control supermarkets. Furthermore, the index number for the sale of organic fresh fruit and vegetables increased by 12.1% (P=0.04) and the sale of the total amount of fruit and vegetables (fresh, frozen, dried and canned) increased by 15.3% (P=0.01) compared with the control supermarkets. In the 'space only' intervention supermarket no significant increase in the sale of fruit and vegetables was found. No unhealthy substitution effects were found. In conclusion, a 20% price reduction on F&V significantly increased sales of F&V. The effect was most pronounced on vegetables and no negative/unhealthy substitution effects were found.

  17. Norplant debate: dollars v. sense. Is Norplant discount in U.S. too little, too late?

    Science.gov (United States)

    1994-01-01

    At a Congressional hearing of the pricing strategy for Norplant, and after several family planning specialists testified that Norplant's cost ($365) makes it inaccessible to many US women, Wyeth-Ayerst announced that, in 2 years, it would provide Norplant to public sector family planning clinics at a discount price. Just 1.4% of clients at Planned Parenthood clinics choose Norplant, because it is too costly. While Title X clinic officials are pleased with this announcement, many family planning providers wonder what the manufacturer's motives are. The president of the National Family Planning and Reproductive Health Association believes that the announcement is a press ploy. The Wyeth spokesperson said the original licensing agreement with the Population Council allowed a public sector price 5 years after Norplant's introduction in the US market. The 5-year delay was intended to build private sector support and to allow Wyeth to recover its marketing and training expenses. Wyeth also wanted Norplant to become a mainstream contraceptive, so it became concerned about the private sector. Yet, the law requires a 15% rebate for qualified public health clinics now. Few family planners expressed praise for Wyeth, since it revealed no details on the public sector price. Further, health care reform may alter drug pricing before the 2-year period. In early 1994, Wyeth's exclusive patent on Norplant and on levonorgestrel expires, allowing other companies to enter the implant market. Yet, other companies need at least 1 year to negotiate with the US Food and Drug Administration for approval, thereby allowing Wyeth a window to dominate the market. Thus, by the time the 2 years is up, the discount will have no meaning. Family planners have criticized Wyeth for not offering a public sector discount for a long time, especially since public funds contributed to Norplant's development. Wyeth's only contribution was levonorgestrel. It allowed the Population Council to use

  18. Discounted Cash Flow and Modern Asset Pricing Methods - Project Selection and Policy Implications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Emhjellen, Magne; Alaouze, Chris M.

    2002-07-01

    We examine the differences in the net present values (NPV's) of North Sea oil projects obtained using the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) and a Modern Asset Pricing (MAP) method which involves the separate discounting of project cash flow components. NPV differences of more than $1 Om were found for some oil projects. Thus, the choice of valuation method will affect the development decisions of oil companies. The results of the MAP method are very sensitive to the choice of parameter values for the stochastic process used to model oil prices. Further research is recommended before the MAP method is used as the sole valuation model. (author)

  19. The complexity of interior point methods for solving discounted turn-based stochastic games

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Thomas Dueholm; Ibsen-Jensen, Rasmus

    2013-01-01

    for general 2TBSGs. This implies that a number of interior point methods can be used to solve 2TBSGs. We consider two such algorithms: the unified interior point method of Kojima, Megiddo, Noma, and Yoshise, and the interior point potential reduction algorithm of Kojima, Megiddo, and Ye. The algorithms run...... states and discount factor γ we get κ=Θ(n(1−γ)2) , −δ=Θ(n√1−γ) , and 1/θ=Θ(n(1−γ)2) in the worst case. The lower bounds for κ, − δ, and 1/θ are all obtained using the same family of deterministic games....

  20. Discounted Cash Flow and Modern Asset Pricing Methods - Project Selection and Policy Implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Emhjellen, Magne; Alaouze, Chris M.

    2002-01-01

    We examine the differences in the net present values (NPV's) of North Sea oil projects obtained using the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) and a Modern Asset Pricing (MAP) method which involves the separate discounting of project cash flow components. NPV differences of more than $1 Om were found for some oil projects. Thus, the choice of valuation method will affect the development decisions of oil companies. The results of the MAP method are very sensitive to the choice of parameter values for the stochastic process used to model oil prices. Further research is recommended before the MAP method is used as the sole valuation model. (author)