WorldWideScience

Sample records for defensible inferences conclusions

  1. Conclusion

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Conclusion. Problems of an Under-developed Economy. Geographical Location. Terrain. Change in attitude of mainstream India required. Using Technology to overcome problems.

  2. Conclusions

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Conclusions. Be it 2G or 4G, networks are vulnerable to unwanted access and thus should be protected. 4G networks would be more sensitive as its core network will be TCP/IP based. Accordingly, resource and security management schemes with seamless ...

  3. Conclusions:

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Conclusions: Extended objects – “D-branes” – appear naturally in theories of strings. They manifest themselves as new types of physical particles in string models. They provide a powerful handle on the symmetries and dynamics of strings. Branes will play a key role ...

  4. Conclusions :

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Conclusions : No dramatic difference in the dynamics of anion-water and water-water hydrogen bonds are found for Cl- and Br- ions. Solvation shells of these ions are not rigid. For OH- in water, HB dynamics in the hydration shell determines the rate of proton transfer.

  5. Conclusion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sandøy, Helge; Kristiansen, Tore

    2010-01-01

    1. Comparing empirical findings with the “mountain peak model” In the introduction to this volume, we presented a “mountain peak model” of Nordic purism based on evidence showing that language scholars and lay people are very much in agreement as to where we find the more purist languages......-speaking Finland to Finnish-speaking Finland. In this conclusion to the volume, we will summarize the empirical findings presented in the volume, findings for use and attitudes alike, and compare them with the mountain peak model. That way, we may be able to estimate the nature of the cross-national ideological...

  6. Decision-making when data and inferences are not conclusive: risk-benefit and acceptable regret approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hozo, Iztok; Schell, Michael J; Djulbegovic, Benjamin

    2008-07-01

    The absolute truth in research is unobtainable, as no evidence or research hypothesis is ever 100% conclusive. Therefore, all data and inferences can in principle be considered as "inconclusive." Scientific inference and decision-making need to take into account errors, which are unavoidable in the research enterprise. The errors can occur at the level of conclusions that aim to discern the truthfulness of research hypothesis based on the accuracy of research evidence and hypothesis, and decisions, the goal of which is to enable optimal decision-making under present and specific circumstances. To optimize the chance of both correct conclusions and correct decisions, the synthesis of all major statistical approaches to clinical research is needed. The integration of these approaches (frequentist, Bayesian, and decision-analytic) can be accomplished through formal risk:benefit (R:B) analysis. This chapter illustrates the rational choice of a research hypothesis using R:B analysis based on decision-theoretic expected utility theory framework and the concept of "acceptable regret" to calculate the threshold probability of the "truth" above which the benefit of accepting a research hypothesis outweighs its risks.

  7. Featurized Bidirectional GAN: Adversarial Defense via Adversarially Learned Semantic Inference

    OpenAIRE

    Bao, Ruying; Liang, Sihang; Wang, Qingcan

    2018-01-01

    Deep neural networks have been demonstrated to be vulnerable to adversarial attacks, where small perturbations are intentionally added to the original inputs to fool the classifier. In this paper, we propose a defense method, Featurized Bidirectional Generative Adversarial Networks (FBGAN), to capture the semantic features of the input and filter the non-semantic perturbation. FBGAN is pre-trained on the clean dataset in an unsupervised manner, adversarially learning a bidirectional mapping b...

  8. Inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jesper

    2010-01-01

    Chapter 9: This contribution concerns statistical inference for parametric models used in stochastic geometry and based on quick and simple simulation free procedures as well as more comprehensive methods based on a maximum likelihood or Bayesian approach combined with markov chain Monte Carlo...... (MCMC) techniques. Due to space limitations the focus is on spatial point processes....

  9. Inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jesper

    (This text written by Jesper Møller, Aalborg University, is submitted for the collection ‘Stochastic Geometry: Highlights, Interactions and New Perspectives', edited by Wilfrid S. Kendall and Ilya Molchanov, to be published by ClarendonPress, Oxford, and planned to appear as Section 4.1 with the ......(This text written by Jesper Møller, Aalborg University, is submitted for the collection ‘Stochastic Geometry: Highlights, Interactions and New Perspectives', edited by Wilfrid S. Kendall and Ilya Molchanov, to be published by ClarendonPress, Oxford, and planned to appear as Section 4.......1 with the title ‘Inference'.) This contribution concerns statistical inference for parametric models used in stochastic geometry and based on quick and simple simulation free procedures as well as more comprehensive methods using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations. Due to space limitations the focus...

  10. Sweet Conclusion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shirley, Britt M.; Wooldridge, Barbara Ross; Camp, Kerri M.

    2012-01-01

    Jen Harrington is the owner and pastry chef of Sweet Conclusion, a bakery in Tampa, Florida. Most of Harrington's business comes from baking wedding cakes, but she has been attempting to attract customers to her retail bakery, where she sells cupcakes, pies, ice cream, and coffee. Nearly four years she opened Sweet Conclusion, the retail part of…

  11. Conclusion; Zaklyuchenie

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nikitin, V I

    1961-07-01

    In this chapter of book are present conclusions about work done by author, in particular that he found comparatively simple and available ways of synthesis of glycerin of acetylene line and glycerin of ethylen line which before was unknown or almost unknown in the chemical literature.

  12. General conclusions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tubiana, M.

    1993-01-01

    In conclusion, a general consensus of a number of points which the author endeavours to summarize in this article: -doctors are an excellent channel for passing on information to the public -doctors feel that they do not know enough about the subject and a training on radiobiology and radiation protection is a necessity for them -communication between doctors and the general public is poor in this field -research should be encouraged in numerous areas such as: carcinogenic effect of low doses of radiation, pedagogy and risk perception

  13. General conclusions on workshop

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rustand, H.

    2006-01-01

    The author proposes a general conclusion on the second workshop on the indemnification of damage in the event of a nuclear accident, organized in Bratislava, the 18-20 May 2005. He pointed out the most important discussions and the results revealed during these two days. (A.L.B.)

  14. Conclusions and recommendations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-01-01

    The FAO/IAEA/GSF/SIDA Co-ordinated Research Programme on Cereal Grain Protein Improvement by Nuclear Techniques was a follow-up to the FAO/IAEA/GSF Co-ordinated Research Programme on the Use of Nuclear Techniques for Seed Protein Improvement. It was initiated in 1969 and ended in 1981. The objectives of the meeting were to review and evaluate the achievements of the current and previous programmes in order to draw conclusions on the possibility of genetic improvement of cereal grain protein using nuclear techniques, to identify unsolved problems and to discuss and propose possible approaches for their solution. Through reviews and discussions, conclusions and recommendations were made by the participants

  15. 7. Conclusions and reflections

    OpenAIRE

    Nettle, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    But now your eyes sing the sad, sad song,Of how you lived so fast and died so young. Introduction We’ve now finished the data chapters of this book, and some conclusions are in order. In this chapter, I summarise what strike me as the main things we have learned, and suggest what their implications might be. I then devote a more extended discussion to the issue of causes of patterns of social behaviour, and how our data might bear on it. From this follows a brief consideration of what kinds o...

  16. Conclusions and recommendations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carrette, M.

    1997-01-01

    The paper presents conclusions and recommendations at the closing session of the NEA/OECD Workshop held at Fontenay-aux-Roses on 12-14 June 1995. The conclusions refer to issues like: public reaction to foodstuffs containing radioisotope concentrations under the danger standards, possible non-adherence of manufacturers, processors, distributors, et al, to the instructions and guidance from radiation protection specialists, integration of all the food chain factors in the elaboration of the emergency intervention programs, etc. Among the most significant recommendations the following may be mentioned: 1. Differences between different intervention levels and the maximum admissible levels agreed upon by national, regional or international nutrition authorities should be further studied; 2. Problems created by the Chernobyl accident (as for instance, the methods of treatment of food chain products containing unacceptable radioactivity concentrations) are still present and must be solved; 3. Further studies should be done on the socio-cultural aspects of the communication, particularly on the information in rural environment; 4. The preventive measures in agriculture should be implemented as rapidly as possible; 5. In elaborating programmes of agriculture countermeasures, the management of contaminated media, particularly, of forests and their effect on agriculture

  17. Summary and Conclusions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-01-01

    This section summarizes the presentations and Panel discussions of the 4 technical sessions of the workshop: 1 - Regulatory cooperation on generic and design specific issues, MDEP working groups (EPR, AP1000), vendor inspection co-operation, digital I and C, and codes and standards (7 presentations); 2 - Regulatory positions on siting practices and enhancements as a result of lessons learned from Fukushima accident (5 presentations); 3 - Construction experience and regulatory oversight of new reactor construction activities (6 presentations); 4 - Lessons learned from regulatory licensing reviews of new reactor designs (6 presentations). The main workshop conclusions are listed as follows: - Harmonization is a long term goal and significant progress has been made. However, this long term objective needs to be associated with short term measurable steps; - MDEP approach to tackle on one side with specific technical subjects, and to strive harmonisation on generic topics was considered appropriate; - Convergence on technical requirements is more realistic than harmonization of codes and standard; - Beneficial early engagement of different stakeholders specially at the siting stage has been acknowledged; - Need to characterise the hazards and to keep updated the safety assessment (PSR); - Land use issues are important particularly after Fukushima; - Commissioning aspects (e.g. training aspects for inspectors) should be addressed by WGRNR taking into account MDEP interaction; - Importance of WGRNR ConEx Programme: construction experience sharing is a leverage for quality and so for a future safe operation of NPPs; - Capability of licensee to follow the responsibility of design changes (could be an issue for small utilities); - Importance of Periodic Safety Reviews to review and account for the design. Finally, the WGRNR has convened that a third conference should be held in about two years time (2014- 2015)

  18. Summary and conclusions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-01-01

    authorities, reactor designers, and operators/ licensees perspectives on the various practices used in the regulation of nuclear power plant siting (selection, evaluation and site preparation). This session was also aimed to address issues on sites where a mixture of activities are taking place (e.g., operating units, new construction, decommissioning, etc.) including organisation of the regulators and licensee/engineering organisation, methods, systems, etc. Conclusions: In general workshop participants agreed on the need to regularly have these kind of forums to discuss relevant regulatory issues for new builds. One important aspect of this workshop was the participation of 'New Entrants'. The interaction between NEA member countries with mature nuclear power plants and newcomers was quite important since it gave newcomers the possibility to benefit of mature international practices in order to focus their regulatory oversight and control. NEA members could also benefit from insights the New Entrants discover as they develop or enhance their regulatory controls. In addition technical exchanges associated with construction experience of New Entrants as they begin to license, build and operate NPP could benefit NEA members

  19. Conclusions

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    In long-term better adapted varieties are needed to adapt to multiple stresses linked with climate change. ... and water management are available which can help minimize negative impacts. ... Adaptation practices take time to become effective.

  20. Conclusion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grignon, F.; Mazrui, A.; Rutten, M.M.E.M.; Rutten, M.M.E.M.; Mazrui, A.; Grignon, F.

    2001-01-01

    The outcome of a three-day conference held at the African Studies Centre, Leiden, The Netherlands, in September 1998, this book on the 1997 Kenya general elections is organized in four parts: the direct pre-electoral background; technical and national analysis of the general elections, including the

  1. Conclusion

    OpenAIRE

    Rainhorn, Jean-Daniel; Boudamoussi, Samira El

    2017-01-01

    “Science without conscience is but the ruin of the soul.”—François Rabelais, 1542 A special feature of this book is to bring together the work of researchers coming from different disciplines and having various themes of reflection or practices in the field of biomedicine. While the general trend of science goes towards increasing specialization, the project of this book is to look at the use of medical advances in a transversal perspective. In other words, it intends to highlight what unregu...

  2. Conclusions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mandil, C.

    1994-01-01

    The renewable energies and the nuclear one are complementary. They belong to the french energy policy, which has three aims: strategic, economic and environmental. They contribute to the diversification of the energy balance and to the energy competitiveness. Energy savings might be achieved and renewable energies might be developed for the future

  3. Conclusions

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Confounding effect of obesity and associated co-morbidities (especially on metabolic abnormalities, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular morbidity) should be clearly dissected out in future studies ...

  4. Conclusion

    OpenAIRE

    Houmed Soulé, Aramis

    2018-01-01

    Au cours de son règne qui a duré plus d’une quarantaine d’années, en une période cruciale de l’histoire de la Corne de l’Afrique, Maḥammad Ḥanfaré parvient à préserver son sultanat, à défaut de l’ensemble du pays ‘Afar, des visées impérialistes d’où qu’elles viennent. Malheureusement, l’indépendance de cette entité politique ‘Afar ne lui survit pas, du moins sur le plan international. Des luttes fratricides pour sa succession qui opposent ses nombreux héritiers et dont les prémices apparaisse...

  5. Conclusion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fahnøe, Kristian Relsted; Warming, Hanne

    2017-01-01

    analysis approach reveal how clients’ struggles in intimate and societal life, and in public and private spaces, are intertwined with geo-politics and global flows of governance strategies, e.g. neoliberalism and managerialism, which also condition social work practices. Indeed, social work constitutes......Fahnøe and Warming provide a cogent overview of how a lived citizenship approach enables critical analyses of social work and social policies by addressing challenges related to rights, recognition, participation, belonging and identity. The sub-concept of intimate citizenship and a spatial...... a kind of sociological magnifying glass through which broader social changes can be studied, including dynamics of inclusion and exclusion, new conflicts and modes of resistance, and new social pathologies....

  6. Conclusion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Warming, Hanne; Fahnøe, Kristian

    2017-01-01

    analysis approach reveal how clients’ struggles in intimate and societal life, and in public and private spaces, are intertwined with geo-politics and global flows of governance strategies, e.g. neoliberalism and managerialism, which also condition social work practices. Indeed, social work constitutes......Warming and Fahnøe provide a cogent overview of how a lived citizenship approach enables critical analyses of social work and social policies by addressing challenges related to rights, recognition, participation, belonging and identity. The sub-concept of intimate citizenship and a spatial...... a kind of sociological magnifying glass through which broader social changes can be studied, including dynamics of inclusion and exclusion, new conflicts and modes of resistance, and new social pathologies....

  7. Conclusion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    de Vreese, Claes; Reinemann, Carsten; Esser, Frank

    2017-01-01

    At the outset, we asked if there is any good news about the news and, if so, where the good news is. In academic research and public discussions about news and democracy, one fi nds different interpretations of the state of current news provision. A tendency towards pessimism about current news...... is seen as having a negative impact on the quality of political life and democracy. Set against the pessimism and caution in the public debate and literature on news quality and the performance of political journalism, we were not optimistic that we would fi nd good-quality news or that we would be able...... to offer some good news as a positive antidote, so to speak, to the pervasive pessimism in the literature....

  8. Conclusions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brookes, L.G.; Motamen, H.

    1984-01-01

    The paper covers the following: economics of nuclear power; nuclear or fossil-fuel plants; power systems; methods of capital investment appraisal; size factor; nuclear industry; uranium demand; fuel cycle; fast reactors; choice of reactors; case studies from France; power plants in USA and West Germany; electricity tariffs; nuclear energy in Middle Eastern states; energy growth and economic growth; nuclear energy as macroeconomic influence; future energy options. (U.K.)

  9. Conclusion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Christian Helms; Wallo, Andreas; Toiviainen, Hanna

    2015-01-01

    Work in times of globalisation and uncertainty is undergoing considerable changes, which has strengthened the importance of work as a site of learning. New trends in production, such as digitalisation, challenge traditional modes of producing goods and services. Emerging forms of flexible...... production and knowledge-work offer growing learning opportunities to people throughout their active working life. In contrast to the stable and standardised modes of Fordist production, modern working life is characterised by rapid changes and employees interacting across globally distributed professional...... explores the challenges of working and learning on the boundaries between education and working life. Globalisation affects the transition patterns from vocational education to the labour market in many ways (Schoon & Silbereisen, 2009), even though the specific challenges to national-level policies vary...

  10. Conclusions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahonen, Pasi; Alahuhta, Petteri; Daskala, Barbara; Delaitre, Sabine; Hert, Paul De; Lindner, Ralf; Maghiros, Ioannis; Moscibroda, Anna; Schreurs, Wim; Verlinden, Michiel

    Some say that an increase in security does not necessarily mean a further encroachment on privacy - indeed, security is necessary to protect personal data and our privacy. Networks must be secure, our personal devices, reliable, dependable and trustworthy. But security is a multifaceted term, with many dimensions. We are of the view that an increase in security most likely will encroach upon our privacy in an ambient intelligence world. Surveillance cameras will continue to proliferate. We assume that, whatever the law is, whatever privacy protections government and business say they honour, our telecommunications, e-mails and Internet usage will be monitored to an increasing degree. The same will be true of our interfaces with the world of ambient intelligence.

  11. Conclusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ainul Hayati Daud; Hazmimi Kasim

    2010-01-01

    In Asia, Japan and the Republic of Korea have conducted similar studies but relying on statistical data and used inputs and outputs (I-O) methodology, utilizing on general macro-level data. In contrast, this study captures data directly through surveys using questionnaires, face-to-face interviews, case studies and focus group discussions. The impact of nuclear technology applications in Malaysia were evaluated both quantitatively and qualitatively. These impacts are then linked to a broader objective associated with technological development, namely wealth generation, knowledge generation and societal well-being. In the process of the study, users and practitioners of the technology highlighted issues and challenges faced by them. To cap the study, the level of activities of nuclear technology in Malaysia was benchmarked against those in Japan and the Republic of Korea. This chapter highlights the results of the study, the outcome of the study, followed by recommendations as response to issues and challenges raised by respondents, and finally the way forward for monitoring and charting further progress of nuclear technology in the country. (author)

  12. Conclusions

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. First study on fHSC. First study on fHSC. fHSC exhibit embryonic stem cell like properties. fHSC therapy results in myocardial regeneration in rat model of MI. fHSC may be a novel stem cell type for cardiovascular regeneration.

  13. Conclusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    In the monograph peculiarities of radioinduced sexual dysfunctions of Chernobyl accident liquidators are described. It is shown, that ones of principal clinical manifestations of stochastic radio-genetic effects are sexual dysfunctions. Assessment in point of view of stages and components of copulative cycle is carried out. Authors made attempt to take in account all involved in sexual dysfunctions systems for examined contingent. It is noted, that genesis of radioinduced sexual dysfunctions is complex and it includes both the influence of vegetative nervous system damage and the direct damage of gonads. During clinical examination with patients it is revealed that both vegetative-vascular dysfunctions and asteno-neurotic dysfunctions are dominating. Authors noting that mentioned sexual dysfunctions are caused by low dose irradiation, and they have certain distinctions. Measures for comprehensive rehabilitation of suffered contingent in late period after irradiation are developed

  14. Conclusions

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Microbial organisms play a major role in assimilation of P from the water column and also from the interstitial waters. Mineralisation of microbial bodies is a very rapid process and autophosphatization may occur within few hours or days after death. Geo-microbiology is an important subject and needs to be developed.

  15. Conclusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Timofeev, Yu.M.; Zikiryakhodjaev, D.Z.

    1997-01-01

    In this chapter of book authors made following summary: the cancerous growths of anal canal is rare form of growths; extension of anal canal depends from sex, age, weight and growth of patient; the developed schemes of classification and staging of cancerous growths of anal canal have important role for growths systematization; typical symptoms are blood in excrement, pains in anus, presence of swelling in anus, the treatment of the cancerous growths of anal canal must be varied

  16. Logical inference and evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perey, F.G.

    1981-01-01

    Most methodologies of evaluation currently used are based upon the theory of statistical inference. It is generally perceived that this theory is not capable of dealing satisfactorily with what are called systematic errors. Theories of logical inference should be capable of treating all of the information available, including that not involving frequency data. A theory of logical inference is presented as an extension of deductive logic via the concept of plausibility and the application of group theory. Some conclusions, based upon the application of this theory to evaluation of data, are also given

  17. CONCLUSIONS Urban Children and Adolescents

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    CONCLUSIONS Urban Children and Adolescents. Increasing prevalence of overweight and obesity and measures of regional (central) adiposity. High prevalence of markers of dysmetabolic state in urban adolescents. ~10% prevalence of dysglycemia in overweight / obese school children.

  18. Chapter 6: Conclusions and recommendations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    This chapter provides a brief summary of conclusions with respect to project implementation issues. Furthermore, the chapter contains recommendations on future applications of the modelling system and on water resources management in the project area

  19. Summary and conclusions [Chapter 11

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniel G. Neary; John N. Rinne; Alvin L.. Medina

    2012-01-01

    Summaries and conclusions of each chapter are compiled here to provide a “Quick Reference” guide of major results and recommendations for the UVR. More detail can be obtained from individual chapters.

  20. Entropic Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caticha, Ariel

    2011-03-01

    In this tutorial we review the essential arguments behing entropic inference. We focus on the epistemological notion of information and its relation to the Bayesian beliefs of rational agents. The problem of updating from a prior to a posterior probability distribution is tackled through an eliminative induction process that singles out the logarithmic relative entropy as the unique tool for inference. The resulting method of Maximum relative Entropy (ME), includes as special cases both MaxEnt and Bayes' rule, and therefore unifies the two themes of these workshops—the Maximum Entropy and the Bayesian methods—into a single general inference scheme.

  1. Distributional Inference

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kroese, A.H.; van der Meulen, E.A.; Poortema, Klaas; Schaafsma, W.

    1995-01-01

    The making of statistical inferences in distributional form is conceptionally complicated because the epistemic 'probabilities' assigned are mixtures of fact and fiction. In this respect they are essentially different from 'physical' or 'frequency-theoretic' probabilities. The distributional form is

  2. Entropic Inference

    OpenAIRE

    Caticha, Ariel

    2010-01-01

    In this tutorial we review the essential arguments behing entropic inference. We focus on the epistemological notion of information and its relation to the Bayesian beliefs of rational agents. The problem of updating from a prior to a posterior probability distribution is tackled through an eliminative induction process that singles out the logarithmic relative entropy as the unique tool for inference. The resulting method of Maximum relative Entropy (ME), includes as special cases both MaxEn...

  3. CONCLUSIONS New Delhi Birth Cohort

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    CONCLUSIONS New Delhi Birth Cohort. Crossing BMI centiles and early adiposity rebound associated with adult metabolic syndrome. BMI gain in infancy and early childhood – associated more with adult lean mass. BMI gain in later childhood / adolescence – associated more with adult fat mass and constituents of ...

  4. Perceptual inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aggelopoulos, Nikolaos C

    2015-08-01

    Perceptual inference refers to the ability to infer sensory stimuli from predictions that result from internal neural representations built through prior experience. Methods of Bayesian statistical inference and decision theory model cognition adequately by using error sensing either in guiding action or in "generative" models that predict the sensory information. In this framework, perception can be seen as a process qualitatively distinct from sensation, a process of information evaluation using previously acquired and stored representations (memories) that is guided by sensory feedback. The stored representations can be utilised as internal models of sensory stimuli enabling long term associations, for example in operant conditioning. Evidence for perceptual inference is contributed by such phenomena as the cortical co-localisation of object perception with object memory, the response invariance in the responses of some neurons to variations in the stimulus, as well as from situations in which perception can be dissociated from sensation. In the context of perceptual inference, sensory areas of the cerebral cortex that have been facilitated by a priming signal may be regarded as comparators in a closed feedback loop, similar to the better known motor reflexes in the sensorimotor system. The adult cerebral cortex can be regarded as similar to a servomechanism, in using sensory feedback to correct internal models, producing predictions of the outside world on the basis of past experience. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Transforming Defense

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lamb, Christopher J; Bunn, M. E; Lutes, Charles; Cavoli, Christopher

    2005-01-01

    .... Despite the resources and attention consumed by the war on terror, and recent decisions by the White House to curtail the growth of defense spending, the senior leadership of the Department of Defense (DoD...

  6. Statistical inference

    CERN Document Server

    Rohatgi, Vijay K

    2003-01-01

    Unified treatment of probability and statistics examines and analyzes the relationship between the two fields, exploring inferential issues. Numerous problems, examples, and diagrams--some with solutions--plus clear-cut, highlighted summaries of results. Advanced undergraduate to graduate level. Contents: 1. Introduction. 2. Probability Model. 3. Probability Distributions. 4. Introduction to Statistical Inference. 5. More on Mathematical Expectation. 6. Some Discrete Models. 7. Some Continuous Models. 8. Functions of Random Variables and Random Vectors. 9. Large-Sample Theory. 10. General Meth

  7. Planetary Defense

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-05-01

    4 Abstract Planetary defense against asteroids should be a major concern for every government in the world . Millions of asteroids and...helps make Planetary Defense viable because defending the Earth against asteroids benefits from all the above technologies. So if our planet security...information about their physical characteristics so we can employ the right strategies. It is a crucial difference if asteroids are made up of metal

  8. Association between competing interests and authors' conclusions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjaergard, Lise L; Als-Nielsen, Bodil

    2002-01-01

    To assess the association between competing interests and authors' conclusions in randomised clinical trials.......To assess the association between competing interests and authors' conclusions in randomised clinical trials....

  9. Defense Business Board

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skip to main content (Press Enter). Toggle navigation Defense Business Board Search Search Defense Business Board: Search Search Defense Business Board: Search Defense Business Board Business Excellence in Defense of the Nation Defense Business Board Home Charter Members Meetings Studies Contact Us The Defense

  10. Statistical inference and Aristotle's Rhetoric.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macdonald, Ranald R

    2004-11-01

    Formal logic operates in a closed system where all the information relevant to any conclusion is present, whereas this is not the case when one reasons about events and states of the world. Pollard and Richardson drew attention to the fact that the reasoning behind statistical tests does not lead to logically justifiable conclusions. In this paper statistical inferences are defended not by logic but by the standards of everyday reasoning. Aristotle invented formal logic, but argued that people mostly get at the truth with the aid of enthymemes--incomplete syllogisms which include arguing from examples, analogies and signs. It is proposed that statistical tests work in the same way--in that they are based on examples, invoke the analogy of a model and use the size of the effect under test as a sign that the chance hypothesis is unlikely. Of existing theories of statistical inference only a weak version of Fisher's takes this into account. Aristotle anticipated Fisher by producing an argument of the form that there were too many cases in which an outcome went in a particular direction for that direction to be plausibly attributed to chance. We can therefore conclude that Aristotle would have approved of statistical inference and there is a good reason for calling this form of statistical inference classical.

  11. Data, Model, Conclusions, Doing It Again.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molenaar, Ivo W.

    1998-01-01

    Explores the robustness of conclusions from a statistical model against variations in model choice with an illustration from G. Box and G. Tiao (1973). Suggests that simultaneous consideration of a class of models for the same data is sometimes superior to analyzing the data under one model and demonstrates advantages to Adaptive Bayesian…

  12. Premature conclusions about psychotherapy for dysthymia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cuijpers, P.

    2009-01-01

    Dr Cuijpers and Colleagues Reply To the Editor: We thank Dr Gaudiano and colleagues for their contribution to the discussion about psychotherapy for dysthymia. We agree very much with Gaudiano et al that we should be careful about drawing definite conclusions about the comparative efficacy of

  13. Data, model, conclusion, doing it again

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Molenaar, W.

    1998-01-01

    This paper explores the robustness of conclusions from a statistical model against variations in model choice (rather than variations in random sampling and random assignment to treatments, which are the usual variations covered by inferential statistics). After the problem formulation in section 1,

  14. Results and conclusion; Resultados e conclusoes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2009-10-15

    This chapter shows the results and conclusions of the ordered studies by the Science and Technology Ministry from Brazil to the Center of Management and Strategic Studies (CGEE), executed by a multidisciplinary team, most of UNICAMP - State University of Campinas, SP - for evaluation of Brazilian capacity and potential in the production of fuel bioethanol.

  15. Conclusions regarding geotechnical acceptability of the WIPP site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weart, W.D.

    1983-01-01

    The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) was authorized by Congress in 1980 as an unlicensed research and development (R and D) facility to demonstrate the safe disposal of radioactive wastes arising from the defense activities and programs of the United States. WIPP is now being constructed in southeast New Mexico, using salt beds about 655 m below the surface of the ground. Construction of the full WIPP facility will not commence until a preliminary underground excavation phase, called Site and Preliminary Design Validation (SPDV), is satisfactorily concluded in the summer of 1983. This SPDV program permits confirmation of subsurface geology, in drifts at planned facility depth that extend for 1555 m in a north-south direction, and in the two vertical shafts that provide access to these drifts. The subsurface studies are nearing completion, and it is therefore appropriate to draw conclusions regarding the geotechnical acceptability of the WIPP site. Four geotechnical elements are discussed: dissolution, deformation, hydrologic regime, and natural resources

  16. Power and Democracy in Denmark. Conclusions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jørgen Goul; Christiansen, Peter Munk; Beck Jørgensen, Torben

    In 1997, the Danish Parliament decided to launch a power study, officially An Analysis of Democracy and Power in Denmark. A steering committee consisting of five independent researchers was assigned responsibility for the project. The Steering Committee has gathered the overall conclusions from...... the numerous projects under the Power Study, and this book is a short presentation of these conclusions.The main focus of the book is the state of democracy in Denmark at the dawn of the 21st century. How has democracy fared, has the development made things better or worse, and to which extent does......, and the political institutions show considerable democratic robustness. However, not everything has gone or is going well. There are still pronounced social divisions in Danish society, although their nature has changed somewhat. The ideal of an informed public debate does not always enjoy the best conditions...

  17. Defense Human Resources Activity > PERSEREC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skip to main content (Press Enter). Toggle navigation Defense Human Resources Activity Search Search Defense Human Resources Activity: Search Search Defense Human Resources Activity: Search Defense Human Resources Activity U.S. Department of Defense Defense Human Resources Activity Overview

  18. SEMANTIC PATCH INFERENCE

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jesper

    2009-01-01

    Collateral evolution the problem of updating several library-using programs in response to API changes in the used library. In this dissertation we address the issue of understanding collateral evolutions by automatically inferring a high-level specification of the changes evident in a given set ...... specifications inferred by spdiff in Linux are shown. We find that the inferred specifications concisely capture the actual collateral evolution performed in the examples....

  19. Superiority in value and the repugnant conclusion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Karsten Klint

    2007-01-01

    superiority does not amount to a radical value difference at all. I then spell out the consequences of these results for different interpretations of Griffin's suggestion regarding population ethics. None of them comes out very successful, but perhaps they nevertheless retain some interest.......James Griffin has considered a weak form of superiority in value a possible remedy to the Repugnant Conclusion. In this paper, I demonstrate that, in a context where value is additive, this weaker form collapses into a stronger form of superiority. And in a context where value is non-additive, weak...

  20. Cyber defense and situational awareness

    CERN Document Server

    Kott, Alexander; Erbacher, Robert F

    2015-01-01

    This book is the first publication to give a comprehensive, structured treatment to the important topic of situational awareness in cyber defense. It presents the subject in a logical, consistent, continuous discourse, covering key topics such as formation of cyber situational awareness, visualization and human factors, automated learning and inference, use of ontologies and metrics, predicting and assessing impact of cyber attacks, and achieving resilience of cyber and physical mission. Chapters include case studies, recent research results and practical insights described specifically for th

  1. Inference in `poor` languages

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Petrov, S.

    1996-10-01

    Languages with a solvable implication problem but without complete and consistent systems of inference rules (`poor` languages) are considered. The problem of existence of finite complete and consistent inference rule system for a ``poor`` language is stated independently of the language or rules syntax. Several properties of the problem arc proved. An application of results to the language of join dependencies is given.

  2. Bayesian statistical inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno De Finetti

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available This work was translated into English and published in the volume: Bruno De Finetti, Induction and Probability, Biblioteca di Statistica, eds. P. Monari, D. Cocchi, Clueb, Bologna, 1993.Bayesian statistical Inference is one of the last fundamental philosophical papers in which we can find the essential De Finetti's approach to the statistical inference.

  3. Geometric statistical inference

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Periwal, Vipul

    1999-01-01

    A reparametrization-covariant formulation of the inverse problem of probability is explicitly solved for finite sample sizes. The inferred distribution is explicitly continuous for finite sample size. A geometric solution of the statistical inference problem in higher dimensions is outlined

  4. Practical Bayesian Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailer-Jones, Coryn A. L.

    2017-04-01

    Preface; 1. Probability basics; 2. Estimation and uncertainty; 3. Statistical models and inference; 4. Linear models, least squares, and maximum likelihood; 5. Parameter estimation: single parameter; 6. Parameter estimation: multiple parameters; 7. Approximating distributions; 8. Monte Carlo methods for inference; 9. Parameter estimation: Markov chain Monte Carlo; 10. Frequentist hypothesis testing; 11. Model comparison; 12. Dealing with more complicated problems; References; Index.

  5. Only one simple conclusion about the climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaremko, G.

    2000-07-24

    Findings concerning climate change, by a three-man team of scientists from the North Dakota Geological Survey, which were presented in a paper read at the Eight International Williston Basin Horizontal Well Workshop, are discussed. The survey by the three scientists covered more than 6,000 scholarly publications. It reported that while the rise in the Earth's temperature is beyond argument, there is anything but agreement as to the causes, or whether the trend is unusual enough to justify concerted and costly actions to change lifestyles. It is shown by direct instrumental measurements that the average temperature at the Earth's surface increased about 0.8 degree Celsius between 1866 and 1998. During that time the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increased from 280 to 353 parts per million. While it is generally assumed that the global warming was caused by human activities, new techniques of measurement such as glacier ice coring, dendrochronology (tree-growth rings), lichenometry (measuring the diameter of lichens) and counting concentrations of oxygen 18 and 16 (isotopes whose presence in marine fossils varies depending on temperature) suggest that most of the global warming took place before the increase in carbon dioxide concentration occurred, raising the possibility that the increase in average temperature had causes other than the increase in greenhouse gases. Some of the studies reviewed by the group show that in Europe between ice ages during the Eemian period, some 135,000 to 110,000 years ago, temperature variations of seven degrees Celsius took place; they dropped from two degree Celsius warmer than today to five degree Celsius colder than today. Based on these findings the group's only firm conclusion was that climate is in a continual flux.

  6. Global Advisory Group: conclusions and recommendations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1986-02-01

    The conclusions and recommendations formulated for the global program by the 8th meeting of the Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI) Global Advisory Group, which took place during November 1985, are summarized. The Global Advisory Group recommends that, in furtherance of the Five-Point Action Program endorsed by the World Health Assembly in 1983, 3 general and 4 specific actions be taken by national immunization programs with the support of the World Health Organization (WHO) to accelerate EPI progress. These recommendations reflect optimism that the 1990 goal of reducing morbidity and mortality by providing immunization for all children of the world can be realized but also acknowledge that many fundamental problems of national program management remain to be resolved. The general actions are: to promote the achievement of the 1990 immunization goal at national and international levels through collaboration among ministries, organizations, and individuals in both the public and private sectors; to adopt a mix of complementary strategies for program acceleration; and to ensure that rapid increases in coverage can be sustained through mechanisms which strengthen th delivery of other primary health care interventions. The specific actions are as follows: to provide immunization at every contact point; to reduce dropout rates between 1st and last immunizations; to improve immunization services to the disadvantaged in urban areas; and to increase priority for the control of measles, poliomyelitis, and neonatal tetanus. The WHO and the UN International Children's Emergency Fund (UNICEF) have collaborated in support of the EPI since the early days of the program. The acceleration of national efforts heightens the importance of this collaboration, particularly at the national level. It may be further facilitated by the provision of policy guidance from global and regional levels, by WHO and UNICEF collaborative agreements at the regional level, and by country agreements

  7. Knowledge and inference

    CERN Document Server

    Nagao, Makoto

    1990-01-01

    Knowledge and Inference discusses an important problem for software systems: How do we treat knowledge and ideas on a computer and how do we use inference to solve problems on a computer? The book talks about the problems of knowledge and inference for the purpose of merging artificial intelligence and library science. The book begins by clarifying the concept of """"knowledge"""" from many points of view, followed by a chapter on the current state of library science and the place of artificial intelligence in library science. Subsequent chapters cover central topics in the artificial intellig

  8. Home - Defense Technology Security Administration

    Science.gov (United States)

    by @dtsamil Defense Technology Security Administration Mission, Culture, and History Executive Official seal of Defense Technology Security Administration Official seal of Defense Technology Security Administration OFFICE of the SECRETARY of DEFENSE Defense Technology Security Administration

  9. Probability and Statistical Inference

    OpenAIRE

    Prosper, Harrison B.

    2006-01-01

    These lectures introduce key concepts in probability and statistical inference at a level suitable for graduate students in particle physics. Our goal is to paint as vivid a picture as possible of the concepts covered.

  10. On quantum statistical inference

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Barndorff-Nielsen, O.E.; Gill, R.D.; Jupp, P.E.

    2003-01-01

    Interest in problems of statistical inference connected to measurements of quantum systems has recently increased substantially, in step with dramatic new developments in experimental techniques for studying small quantum systems. Furthermore, developments in the theory of quantum measurements have

  11. INFERENCE BUILDING BLOCKS

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-02-15

    expressed a variety of inference techniques on discrete and continuous distributions: exact inference, importance sampling, Metropolis-Hastings (MH...without redoing any math or rewriting any code. And although our main goal is composable reuse, our performance is also good because we can use...control paths. • The Hakaru language can express mixtures of discrete and continuous distributions, but the current disintegration transformation

  12. Introductory statistical inference

    CERN Document Server

    Mukhopadhyay, Nitis

    2014-01-01

    This gracefully organized text reveals the rigorous theory of probability and statistical inference in the style of a tutorial, using worked examples, exercises, figures, tables, and computer simulations to develop and illustrate concepts. Drills and boxed summaries emphasize and reinforce important ideas and special techniques.Beginning with a review of the basic concepts and methods in probability theory, moments, and moment generating functions, the author moves to more intricate topics. Introductory Statistical Inference studies multivariate random variables, exponential families of dist

  13. Ballistic missile defense effectiveness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, George N.

    2017-11-01

    The potential effectiveness of ballistic missile defenses today remains a subject of debate. After a brief discussion of terminal and boost phase defenses, this chapter will focus on long-range midcourse defenses. The problems posed by potential countermeasures to such midcourse defenses are discussed as are the sensor capabilities a defense might have available to attempt to discriminate the actual missile warhead in a countermeasures environment. The role of flight testing in assessing ballistic missile defense effectiveness is discussed. Arguments made about effectiveness by missile defense supporters and critics are summarized.

  14. Optimizing Active Cyber Defense

    OpenAIRE

    Lu, Wenlian; Xu, Shouhuai; Yi, Xinlei

    2016-01-01

    Active cyber defense is one important defensive method for combating cyber attacks. Unlike traditional defensive methods such as firewall-based filtering and anti-malware tools, active cyber defense is based on spreading "white" or "benign" worms to combat against the attackers' malwares (i.e., malicious worms) that also spread over the network. In this paper, we initiate the study of {\\em optimal} active cyber defense in the setting of strategic attackers and/or strategic defenders. Specific...

  15. Type Inference with Inequalities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schwartzbach, Michael Ignatieff

    1991-01-01

    of (monotonic) inequalities on the types of variables and expressions. A general result about systems of inequalities over semilattices yields a solvable form. We distinguish between deciding typability (the existence of solutions) and type inference (the computation of a minimal solution). In our case, both......Type inference can be phrased as constraint-solving over types. We consider an implicitly typed language equipped with recursive types, multiple inheritance, 1st order parametric polymorphism, and assignments. Type correctness is expressed as satisfiability of a possibly infinite collection...

  16. Strategic Defense Initiative Overview

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    1990-01-01

    ... to Third World and other nations. I will then discuss the scope of the SDI effort, the evolving strategic defense system architectures and theater defense, our compliancy with the ABM Treaty, technology spinoffs resulting from SDI...

  17. Inference as Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Jane

    2007-01-01

    Inference, or decision making, is seen in curriculum documents as the final step in a statistical investigation. For a formal statistical enquiry this may be associated with sophisticated tests involving probability distributions. For young students without the mathematical background to perform such tests, it is still possible to draw informal…

  18. Hybrid Optical Inference Machines

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-09-27

    with labels. Now, events. a set of facts cal be generated in the dyadic form "u, R 1,2" Eichmann and Caulfield (19] consider the same type of and can...these enceding-schemes. These architectures are-based pri- 19. G. Eichmann and H. J. Caulfield, "Optical Learning (Inference)marily on optical inner

  19. A Comparative Analysis of Fuzzy Inference Engines in Context of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    PROF. O. E. OSUAGWU

    Fuzzy Inference engine is an important part of reasoning systems capable of extracting correct conclusions from ... is known as the inference, or rule definition portion, of fuzzy .... minimal set of decision rules based on input- ... The study uses Mamdani FIS model and. Sugeno FIS ... control of induction motor drive. [18] study.

  20. Rethinking Defensive Information Warfare

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    French, Geoffrey S

    2004-01-01

    .... This paper examines defensive tactics and strategies from the German defense in depth that emerged from World War I to the American Active Defense that developed in the Cold War and proposes a new mindset for DIW that draws on these operational concepts from military history.

  1. Recognizing Plant Defense Priming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Martinez-Medina, Ainhoa; Flors, Victor; Heil, Martin; Mauch-Mani, Brigitte; Pieterse, Corné M J|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/113115113; Pozo, Maria J; Ton, Jurriaan; van Dam, Nicole M; Conrath, Uwe

    2016-01-01

    Defense priming conditions diverse plant species for the superinduction of defense, often resulting in enhanced pest and disease resistance and abiotic stress tolerance. Here, we propose a guideline that might assist the plant research community in a consistent assessment of defense priming in

  2. Recognizing Plant Defense Priming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez-Medina, Ainhoa; Flors, Victor; Heil, Martin; Mauch-Mani, Brigitte; Pieterse, Corné M J; Pozo, Maria J; Ton, Jurriaan; van Dam, Nicole M; Conrath, Uwe

    2016-10-01

    Defense priming conditions diverse plant species for the superinduction of defense, often resulting in enhanced pest and disease resistance and abiotic stress tolerance. Here, we propose a guideline that might assist the plant research community in a consistent assessment of defense priming in plants. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Recognizing plant defense priming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Martinez-Medina, A.; Flors, V.; Heil, M.; Mauch-Mani, B.; Pieterse, C.M.J.; Pozo, M.J.; Ton, J.; Van Dam, N.M.; Conrath, U.

    2016-01-01

    Defense priming conditions diverse plant species for the superinduction of defense, often resulting in enhanced pest and disease resistance and abiotic stress tolerance. Here, we propose a guideline that might assist the plant research community in a consistent assessment of defense priming in

  4. Inference rule and problem solving

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goto, S

    1982-04-01

    Intelligent information processing signifies an opportunity of having man's intellectual activity executed on the computer, in which inference, in place of ordinary calculation, is used as the basic operational mechanism for such an information processing. Many inference rules are derived from syllogisms in formal logic. The problem of programming this inference function is referred to as a problem solving. Although logically inference and problem-solving are in close relation, the calculation ability of current computers is on a low level for inferring. For clarifying the relation between inference and computers, nonmonotonic logic has been considered. The paper deals with the above topics. 16 references.

  5. Why even good defenses may be bad

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glaser, C.L.

    1984-01-01

    The current debate over whether an effective ballistic missile defense (BMD) is technically feasible and whether it could be developed and deployed has left most of the advocacy up to those supporting a BMD program. The author emphasizes the issues beyond technical feasibility in his conclusion that assured destruction may still be preferable to perfect defense in terms of reducing the probability of nuclear war. After examining a number of possible scenarios involving the US and Soviet Union, the positions of allies, and the possibility of clandestine bombs, he sees no reason to expect that a defense system would be less vulnerable or have fewer uncertainties. 29 references

  6. A formal model of interpersonal inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael eMoutoussis

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: We propose that active Bayesian inference – a general framework for decision-making – can equally be applied to interpersonal exchanges. Social cognition, however, entails special challenges. We address these challenges through a novel formulation of a formal model and demonstrate its psychological significance. Method: We review relevant literature, especially with regards to interpersonal representations, formulate a mathematical model and present a simulation study. The model accommodates normative models from utility theory and places them within the broader setting of Bayesian inference. Crucially, we endow people's prior beliefs, into which utilities are absorbed, with preferences of self and others. The simulation illustrates the model's dynamics and furnishes elementary predictions of the theory. Results: 1. Because beliefs about self and others inform both the desirability and plausibility of outcomes, in this framework interpersonal representations become beliefs that have to be actively inferred. This inference, akin to 'mentalising' in the psychological literature, is based upon the outcomes of interpersonal exchanges. 2. We show how some well-known social-psychological phenomena (e.g. self-serving biases can be explained in terms of active interpersonal inference. 3. Mentalising naturally entails Bayesian updating of how people value social outcomes. Crucially this includes inference about one’s own qualities and preferences. Conclusion: We inaugurate a Bayes optimal framework for modelling intersubject variability in mentalising during interpersonal exchanges. Here, interpersonal representations are endowed with explicit functional and affective properties. We suggest the active inference framework lends itself to the study of psychiatric conditions where mentalising is distorted.

  7. Stochastic processes inference theory

    CERN Document Server

    Rao, Malempati M

    2014-01-01

    This is the revised and enlarged 2nd edition of the authors’ original text, which was intended to be a modest complement to Grenander's fundamental memoir on stochastic processes and related inference theory. The present volume gives a substantial account of regression analysis, both for stochastic processes and measures, and includes recent material on Ridge regression with some unexpected applications, for example in econometrics. The first three chapters can be used for a quarter or semester graduate course on inference on stochastic processes. The remaining chapters provide more advanced material on stochastic analysis suitable for graduate seminars and discussions, leading to dissertation or research work. In general, the book will be of interest to researchers in probability theory, mathematical statistics and electrical and information theory.

  8. Making Type Inference Practical

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schwartzbach, Michael Ignatieff; Oxhøj, Nicholas; Palsberg, Jens

    1992-01-01

    We present the implementation of a type inference algorithm for untyped object-oriented programs with inheritance, assignments, and late binding. The algorithm significantly improves our previous one, presented at OOPSLA'91, since it can handle collection classes, such as List, in a useful way. Abo......, the complexity has been dramatically improved, from exponential time to low polynomial time. The implementation uses the techniques of incremental graph construction and constraint template instantiation to avoid representing intermediate results, doing superfluous work, and recomputing type information....... Experiments indicate that the implementation type checks as much as 100 lines pr. second. This results in a mature product, on which a number of tools can be based, for example a safety tool, an image compression tool, a code optimization tool, and an annotation tool. This may make type inference for object...

  9. Russell and Humean Inferences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    João Paulo Monteiro

    2001-12-01

    Full Text Available Russell's The Problems of Philosophy tries to establish a new theory of induction, at the same time that Hume is there accused of an irrational/ scepticism about induction". But a careful analysis of the theory of knowledge explicitly acknowledged by Hume reveals that, contrary to the standard interpretation in the XXth century, possibly influenced by Russell, Hume deals exclusively with causal inference (which he never classifies as "causal induction", although now we are entitled to do so, never with inductive inference in general, mainly generalizations about sensible qualities of objects ( whether, e.g., "all crows are black" or not is not among Hume's concerns. Russell's theories are thus only false alternatives to Hume's, in (1912 or in his (1948.

  10. Causal inference in econometrics

    CERN Document Server

    Kreinovich, Vladik; Sriboonchitta, Songsak

    2016-01-01

    This book is devoted to the analysis of causal inference which is one of the most difficult tasks in data analysis: when two phenomena are observed to be related, it is often difficult to decide whether one of them causally influences the other one, or whether these two phenomena have a common cause. This analysis is the main focus of this volume. To get a good understanding of the causal inference, it is important to have models of economic phenomena which are as accurate as possible. Because of this need, this volume also contains papers that use non-traditional economic models, such as fuzzy models and models obtained by using neural networks and data mining techniques. It also contains papers that apply different econometric models to analyze real-life economic dependencies.

  11. Active inference and learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friston, Karl; FitzGerald, Thomas; Rigoli, Francesco; Schwartenbeck, Philipp; O Doherty, John; Pezzulo, Giovanni

    2016-09-01

    This paper offers an active inference account of choice behaviour and learning. It focuses on the distinction between goal-directed and habitual behaviour and how they contextualise each other. We show that habits emerge naturally (and autodidactically) from sequential policy optimisation when agents are equipped with state-action policies. In active inference, behaviour has explorative (epistemic) and exploitative (pragmatic) aspects that are sensitive to ambiguity and risk respectively, where epistemic (ambiguity-resolving) behaviour enables pragmatic (reward-seeking) behaviour and the subsequent emergence of habits. Although goal-directed and habitual policies are usually associated with model-based and model-free schemes, we find the more important distinction is between belief-free and belief-based schemes. The underlying (variational) belief updating provides a comprehensive (if metaphorical) process theory for several phenomena, including the transfer of dopamine responses, reversal learning, habit formation and devaluation. Finally, we show that active inference reduces to a classical (Bellman) scheme, in the absence of ambiguity. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  12. Learning Convex Inference of Marginals

    OpenAIRE

    Domke, Justin

    2012-01-01

    Graphical models trained using maximum likelihood are a common tool for probabilistic inference of marginal distributions. However, this approach suffers difficulties when either the inference process or the model is approximate. In this paper, the inference process is first defined to be the minimization of a convex function, inspired by free energy approximations. Learning is then done directly in terms of the performance of the inference process at univariate marginal prediction. The main ...

  13. Defense mutualisms enhance plant diversification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, Marjorie G; Agrawal, Anurag A

    2014-11-18

    The ability of plants to form mutualistic relationships with animal defenders has long been suspected to influence their evolutionary success, both by decreasing extinction risk and by increasing opportunity for speciation through an expanded realized niche. Nonetheless, the hypothesis that defense mutualisms consistently enhance plant diversification across lineages has not been well tested due to a lack of phenotypic and phylogenetic information. Using a global analysis, we show that the >100 vascular plant families in which species have evolved extrafloral nectaries (EFNs), sugar-secreting organs that recruit arthropod mutualists, have twofold higher diversification rates than families that lack species with EFNs. Zooming in on six distantly related plant clades, trait-dependent diversification models confirmed the tendency for lineages with EFNs to display increased rates of diversification. These results were consistent across methodological approaches. Inference using reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to model the placement and number of rate shifts revealed that high net diversification rates in EFN clades were driven by an increased number of positive rate shifts following EFN evolution compared with sister clades, suggesting that EFNs may be indirect facilitators of diversification. Our replicated analysis indicates that defense mutualisms put lineages on a path toward increased diversification rates within and between clades, and is concordant with the hypothesis that mutualistic interactions with animals can have an impact on deep macroevolutionary patterns and enhance plant diversity.

  14. Probabilistic inductive inference: a survey

    OpenAIRE

    Ambainis, Andris

    2001-01-01

    Inductive inference is a recursion-theoretic theory of learning, first developed by E. M. Gold (1967). This paper surveys developments in probabilistic inductive inference. We mainly focus on finite inference of recursive functions, since this simple paradigm has produced the most interesting (and most complex) results.

  15. Multimodel inference and adaptive management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rehme, S.E.; Powell, L.A.; Allen, Craig R.

    2011-01-01

    Ecology is an inherently complex science coping with correlated variables, nonlinear interactions and multiple scales of pattern and process, making it difficult for experiments to result in clear, strong inference. Natural resource managers, policy makers, and stakeholders rely on science to provide timely and accurate management recommendations. However, the time necessary to untangle the complexities of interactions within ecosystems is often far greater than the time available to make management decisions. One method of coping with this problem is multimodel inference. Multimodel inference assesses uncertainty by calculating likelihoods among multiple competing hypotheses, but multimodel inference results are often equivocal. Despite this, there may be pressure for ecologists to provide management recommendations regardless of the strength of their study’s inference. We reviewed papers in the Journal of Wildlife Management (JWM) and the journal Conservation Biology (CB) to quantify the prevalence of multimodel inference approaches, the resulting inference (weak versus strong), and how authors dealt with the uncertainty. Thirty-eight percent and 14%, respectively, of articles in the JWM and CB used multimodel inference approaches. Strong inference was rarely observed, with only 7% of JWM and 20% of CB articles resulting in strong inference. We found the majority of weak inference papers in both journals (59%) gave specific management recommendations. Model selection uncertainty was ignored in most recommendations for management. We suggest that adaptive management is an ideal method to resolve uncertainty when research results in weak inference.

  16. Estimating uncertainty of inference for validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Booker, Jane M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Langenbrunner, James R [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Hemez, Francois M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Ross, Timothy J [UNM

    2010-09-30

    We present a validation process based upon the concept that validation is an inference-making activity. This has always been true, but the association has not been as important before as it is now. Previously, theory had been confirmed by more data, and predictions were possible based on data. The process today is to infer from theory to code and from code to prediction, making the role of prediction somewhat automatic, and a machine function. Validation is defined as determining the degree to which a model and code is an accurate representation of experimental test data. Imbedded in validation is the intention to use the computer code to predict. To predict is to accept the conclusion that an observable final state will manifest; therefore, prediction is an inference whose goodness relies on the validity of the code. Quantifying the uncertainty of a prediction amounts to quantifying the uncertainty of validation, and this involves the characterization of uncertainties inherent in theory/models/codes and the corresponding data. An introduction to inference making and its associated uncertainty is provided as a foundation for the validation problem. A mathematical construction for estimating the uncertainty in the validation inference is then presented, including a possibility distribution constructed to represent the inference uncertainty for validation under uncertainty. The estimation of inference uncertainty for validation is illustrated using data and calculations from Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF). The ICF measurements of neutron yield and ion temperature were obtained for direct-drive inertial fusion capsules at the Omega laser facility. The glass capsules, containing the fusion gas, were systematically selected with the intent of establishing a reproducible baseline of high-yield 10{sup 13}-10{sup 14} neutron output. The deuterium-tritium ratio in these experiments was varied to study its influence upon yield. This paper on validation inference is the

  17. Nonparametric statistical inference

    CERN Document Server

    Gibbons, Jean Dickinson

    2010-01-01

    Overall, this remains a very fine book suitable for a graduate-level course in nonparametric statistics. I recommend it for all people interested in learning the basic ideas of nonparametric statistical inference.-Eugenia Stoimenova, Journal of Applied Statistics, June 2012… one of the best books available for a graduate (or advanced undergraduate) text for a theory course on nonparametric statistics. … a very well-written and organized book on nonparametric statistics, especially useful and recommended for teachers and graduate students.-Biometrics, 67, September 2011This excellently presente

  18. Emotional inferences by pragmatics

    OpenAIRE

    Iza-Miqueleiz, Mauricio

    2017-01-01

    It has for long been taken for granted that, along the course of reading a text, world knowledge is often required in order to establish coherent links between sentences (McKoon & Ratcliff 1992, Iza & Ezquerro 2000). The content grasped from a text turns out to be strongly dependent upon the reader’s additional knowledge that allows a coherent interpretation of the text as a whole. The world knowledge directing the inference may be of distinctive nature. Gygax et al. (2007) showed that m...

  19. Generic patch inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jesper; Lawall, Julia

    2010-01-01

    A key issue in maintaining Linux device drivers is the need to keep them up to date with respect to evolutions in Linux internal libraries. Currently, there is little tool support for performing and documenting such changes. In this paper we present a tool, spdiff, that identifies common changes...... developers can use it to extract an abstract representation of the set of changes that others have made. Our experiments on recent changes in Linux show that the inferred generic patches are more concise than the corresponding patches found in commits to the Linux source tree while being safe with respect...

  20. Technologies for distributed defense

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seiders, Barbara; Rybka, Anthony

    2002-07-01

    For Americans, the nature of warfare changed on September 11, 2001. Our national security henceforth will require distributed defense. One extreme of distributed defense is represented by fully deployed military troops responding to a threat from a hostile nation state. At the other extreme is a country of 'citizen soldiers', with families and communities securing their common defense through heightened awareness, engagement as good neighbors, and local support of and cooperation with local law enforcement, emergency and health care providers. Technologies - for information exploitation, biological agent detection, health care surveillance, and security - will be critical to ensuring success in distributed defense.

  1. Dynamic defense workshop :

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crosby, Sean Michael; Doak, Justin E.; Haas, Jason Juedes.; Helinski, Ryan; Lamb, Christopher C.

    2013-02-01

    On September 5th and 6th, 2012, the Dynamic Defense Workshop: From Research to Practice brought together researchers from academia, industry, and Sandia with the goals of increasing collaboration between Sandia National Laboratories and external organizations, de ning and un- derstanding dynamic, or moving target, defense concepts and directions, and gaining a greater understanding of the state of the art for dynamic defense. Through the workshop, we broadened and re ned our de nition and understanding, identi ed new approaches to inherent challenges, and de ned principles of dynamic defense. Half of the workshop was devoted to presentations of current state-of-the-art work. Presentation topics included areas such as the failure of current defenses, threats, techniques, goals of dynamic defense, theory, foundations of dynamic defense, future directions and open research questions related to dynamic defense. The remainder of the workshop was discussion, which was broken down into sessions on de ning challenges, applications to host or mobile environments, applications to enterprise network environments, exploring research and operational taxonomies, and determining how to apply scienti c rigor to and investigating the eld of dynamic defense.

  2. Online Emotional Inferences in Written and Auditory Texts: A Study with Children and Adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diergarten, Anna Katharina; Nieding, Gerhild

    2016-01-01

    Emotional inferences are conclusions that a reader draws about the emotional state of a story's protagonist. In this study, we examined whether children and adults draw emotional inferences while reading short stories or listening to an aural presentation of short stories. We used an online method that assesses inferences during reading with a…

  3. Defense Mechanisms: A Bibliography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedrini, D. T.; Pedrini, Bonnie C.

    This bibliography includes studies of defense mechanisms, in general, and studies of multiple mechanisms. Defense mechanisms, briefly and simply defined, are the unconscious ego defendants against unpleasure, threat, or anxiety. Sigmund Freud deserves the clinical credit for studying many mechanisms and introducing them in professional literature.…

  4. Defense Business Transformation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-12-01

    Defense Business Transformation by Jacques S. Gansler and William Lucyshyn The Center for Technology and National...REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 00-00-2009 to 00-00-2009 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Defense Business Transformation 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER...vii Part One: DoD Business Transformation

  5. Unfolding Green Defense

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Kristian Knus

    2015-01-01

    In recent years, many states have developed and implemented green solutions for defense. Building on these initiatives NATO formulated the NATO Green Defence Framework in 2014. The framework provides a broad basis for cooperation within the Alliance on green solutions for defense. This report aims...... to inform and support the further development of green solutions by unfolding how green technologies and green strategies have been developed and used to handle current security challenges. The report, initially, focuses on the security challenges that are being linked to green defense, namely fuel...... consumption in military operations, defense expenditure, energy security, and global climate change. The report then proceeds to introduce the NATO Green Defence Framework before exploring specific current uses of green technologies and green strategies for defense. The report concludes that a number...

  6. Inverse Ising inference with correlated samples

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Obermayer, Benedikt; Levine, Erel

    2014-01-01

    Correlations between two variables of a high-dimensional system can be indicative of an underlying interaction, but can also result from indirect effects. Inverse Ising inference is a method to distinguish one from the other. Essentially, the parameters of the least constrained statistical model are learned from the observed correlations such that direct interactions can be separated from indirect correlations. Among many other applications, this approach has been helpful for protein structure prediction, because residues which interact in the 3D structure often show correlated substitutions in a multiple sequence alignment. In this context, samples used for inference are not independent but share an evolutionary history on a phylogenetic tree. Here, we discuss the effects of correlations between samples on global inference. Such correlations could arise due to phylogeny but also via other slow dynamical processes. We present a simple analytical model to address the resulting inference biases, and develop an exact method accounting for background correlations in alignment data by combining phylogenetic modeling with an adaptive cluster expansion algorithm. We find that popular reweighting schemes are only marginally effective at removing phylogenetic bias, suggest a rescaling strategy that yields better results, and provide evidence that our conclusions carry over to the frequently used mean-field approach to the inverse Ising problem. (paper)

  7. Brain Imaging, Forward Inference, and Theories of Reasoning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heit, Evan

    2015-01-01

    This review focuses on the issue of how neuroimaging studies address theoretical accounts of reasoning, through the lens of the method of forward inference (Henson, 2005, 2006). After theories of deductive and inductive reasoning are briefly presented, the method of forward inference for distinguishing between psychological theories based on brain imaging evidence is critically reviewed. Brain imaging studies of reasoning, comparing deductive and inductive arguments, comparing meaningful versus non-meaningful material, investigating hemispheric localization, and comparing conditional and relational arguments, are assessed in light of the method of forward inference. Finally, conclusions are drawn with regard to future research opportunities. PMID:25620926

  8. Brain imaging, forward inference, and theories of reasoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heit, Evan

    2014-01-01

    This review focuses on the issue of how neuroimaging studies address theoretical accounts of reasoning, through the lens of the method of forward inference (Henson, 2005, 2006). After theories of deductive and inductive reasoning are briefly presented, the method of forward inference for distinguishing between psychological theories based on brain imaging evidence is critically reviewed. Brain imaging studies of reasoning, comparing deductive and inductive arguments, comparing meaningful versus non-meaningful material, investigating hemispheric localization, and comparing conditional and relational arguments, are assessed in light of the method of forward inference. Finally, conclusions are drawn with regard to future research opportunities.

  9. Department of Defense perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Devine, R.

    1985-01-01

    This paper examines radiation instrumentation from the Department of Defense perspective. Radiation survey instruments and calibration, or RADIAC, as it is called in the services, while administratively falling under the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Atomic Energy, has generally been managed at a lower level. The Naval Electronics Systems Command and Army Signal Corp are the two principles in the Department of Defense for RADIAC. The actions of the services are coordinated through the tri-service RADIAC working group, which meets about every year and a half. Several points from this organization are highlighted

  10. Feature Inference Learning and Eyetracking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rehder, Bob; Colner, Robert M.; Hoffman, Aaron B.

    2009-01-01

    Besides traditional supervised classification learning, people can learn categories by inferring the missing features of category members. It has been proposed that feature inference learning promotes learning a category's internal structure (e.g., its typical features and interfeature correlations) whereas classification promotes the learning of…

  11. An Inference Language for Imaging

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedemonte, Stefano; Catana, Ciprian; Van Leemput, Koen

    2014-01-01

    We introduce iLang, a language and software framework for probabilistic inference. The iLang framework enables the definition of directed and undirected probabilistic graphical models and the automated synthesis of high performance inference algorithms for imaging applications. The iLang framewor...

  12. Gauging Variational Inference

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chertkov, Michael [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Ahn, Sungsoo [Korea Advanced Inst. Science and Technology (KAIST), Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Shin, Jinwoo [Korea Advanced Inst. Science and Technology (KAIST), Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-05-25

    Computing partition function is the most important statistical inference task arising in applications of Graphical Models (GM). Since it is computationally intractable, approximate methods have been used to resolve the issue in practice, where meanfield (MF) and belief propagation (BP) are arguably the most popular and successful approaches of a variational type. In this paper, we propose two new variational schemes, coined Gauged-MF (G-MF) and Gauged-BP (G-BP), improving MF and BP, respectively. Both provide lower bounds for the partition function by utilizing the so-called gauge transformation which modifies factors of GM while keeping the partition function invariant. Moreover, we prove that both G-MF and G-BP are exact for GMs with a single loop of a special structure, even though the bare MF and BP perform badly in this case. Our extensive experiments, on complete GMs of relatively small size and on large GM (up-to 300 variables) confirm that the newly proposed algorithms outperform and generalize MF and BP.

  13. Social Inference Through Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oulasvirta, Antti

    Awareness cues are computer-mediated, real-time indicators of people’s undertakings, whereabouts, and intentions. Already in the mid-1970 s, UNIX users could use commands such as “finger” and “talk” to find out who was online and to chat. The small icons in instant messaging (IM) applications that indicate coconversants’ presence in the discussion space are the successors of “finger” output. Similar indicators can be found in online communities, media-sharing services, Internet relay chat (IRC), and location-based messaging applications. But presence and availability indicators are only the tip of the iceberg. Technological progress has enabled richer, more accurate, and more intimate indicators. For example, there are mobile services that allow friends to query and follow each other’s locations. Remote monitoring systems developed for health care allow relatives and doctors to assess the wellbeing of homebound patients (see, e.g., Tang and Venables 2000). But users also utilize cues that have not been deliberately designed for this purpose. For example, online gamers pay attention to other characters’ behavior to infer what the other players are like “in real life.” There is a common denominator underlying these examples: shared activities rely on the technology’s representation of the remote person. The other human being is not physically present but present only through a narrow technological channel.

  14. Debris impact on emergency coolant recirculation - summary and conclusions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jain, Bhagwat; Hsia, Anthony; Armand, Yves; Mattei, Jean-Marie; Hyvaerinen, Juhani; Maqua, Michael; Puetter, Bernhard; Sandervaag, Oddbjoern; Vandewalle, Andre; Tombuyses, Beatrice; Pyy, Pekka; Royen, Jacques

    2004-01-01

    On 28 July 1992, a steam line safety relief valve inadvertently opened in the Barsebaeck-2 nuclear power plant in Sweden. The steam jet stripped fibrous insulation from adjacent piping system. Part of that insulation debris was transported to the wet-well pool and clogged the intake strainers for the drywell spray system after about one hour. Although the incident in itself was not very serious, it revealed a weakness in the defense-in-depth concept which under other circumstances could have led to the emergency core cooling system (ECCS) failing to provide recirculation water to the core. The Barsebaeck incident spurred immediate action on the part of regulators and utilities alike in several OECD countries. Research and development efforts of varying degrees of intensity were launched in many countries and in several cases resulted in findings that earlier strainer clogging data were incorrect because essential parameters and physical phenomena had not been recognized previously. Such efforts resulted in substantial back-fittings being carried out for BWRs and some PWRs in several OECD countries. An international workshop organised in Stockholm in 1994 under the auspices of CSNI revealed a rather confusing picture of the available knowledge base, examples of conflicting information and a wide range of interpretation of guidance for assessing BWR strainers and PWR sump screen performance contained in US NRC Regulatory Guide 1.82. An International Working Group was set up by the CSNI to establish an internationally agreed-upon knowledge base for assessing the reliability of ECC water recirculation systems. An initiative was taken by the CSNI in 1998 to revisit the subject. The general objective was to make an update of the knowledge base for strainer clogging, to review the latest phenomena for PWRs and to provide a survey of actions taken in member countries. New information contained in NUREG/CR-6771 indicated that the core damage frequency could increase by one

  15. Cruise Missile Defense

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hichkad, Ravi R; Bolkcom, Christopher

    2005-01-01

    Congress has expressed interest in cruise missile defense for years. Cruise missiles (CMs) are essentially unmanned attack aircraft -- vehicles composed of an airframe, propulsion system, guidance system, and weapons payload...

  16. Cruise Missile Defense

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hichkad, Ravi R; Bolkcom, Christopher

    2004-01-01

    Congress has expressed interest in cruise missile defense for years. Cruise missiles (CMs) are essentially unmanned attack aircraft -- vehicles composed of an airframe, propulsion system, guidance system, and weapons payload...

  17. Defense Transportation; The Army

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    1998-01-01

    .... The statement of managers in the conference report on the Department of Defense Appropriations Act, 1997, directed us to validate the results and savings achieved from this and any other personal property pilot program...

  18. Defense Primer: DOD Contractors

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-02-10

    functions, from intelligence analysis or software development to landscaping or food service. Why does DOD use individual contractors? Going back to...that provide professional services, from research to management support. The bulk of contractors—more than 70%—provide products, and these include...10 U.S.C. Part IV: Service, Supply, and Procurement. CRS Products CRS In Focus IF10548, Defense Primer: U.S. Defense Industrial Base, by Daniel

  19. Ballistic Missile Defense

    OpenAIRE

    Mayer, Michael

    2011-01-01

    At the 2010 NATO summit in Lisbon, the alliance decided to move forward on the development of a territorial ballistic missile defense (BMD) system and explore avenues for cooperation with Russia in this endeavor. Substantial progress on BMD has been made over the past decade, but some questions remain regarding the ultimate strategic utility of such a system and whether its benefi ts outweigh the possible opportunity costs. Missile defense has been a point of contention between the US and its...

  20. Number of objectives and conclusions in dissertations and thesis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liebano Richard Eloin

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available PURPOSE: To analyze the number of objectives and conclusions presented in dissertations and thesis defended at Federal University of São Paulo - Paulista School of Medicine (UNIFESP - EPM. METHODS: It was realized a search in the master degree dissertations and doctor degree thesis defended at Federal University of São Paulo - Paulista School of Medicine in the years 2002 and 2003 that were found available in the central library of this university. RESULTS: From 723 master dissertations analyzed, 62 (8,57% presented only one objective and one conclusion, 134 (18,53% presented one objective and more than one conclusion and 527 (72,89% had more than one objective and more than one conclusion. From 502 doctor thesis analyzed, 23 (4,58% presented only one objective and one conclusion, 123 (24,50% presented one objective and more than one conclusion and 376 (74,90% had more than one objective and more than one conclusion.. CONCLUSIONS: It wasn't found in researched literature the number of objectives and conclusions a scientific work must have. A highest number of thesis and dissertations presented more than one objective and more than one conclusion.

  1. 76 FR 72391 - Defense Logistics Agency Revised Regulation 1000.22, Environmental Considerations in Defense...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-11-23

    ... DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE Office of the Secretary [Docket ID DOD-2011-OS-0055] Defense Logistics Agency Revised Regulation 1000.22, Environmental Considerations in Defense Logistics Agency Actions AGENCY: Defense Logistics Agency, Department of Defense. ACTION: Revised Defense Logistics Agency...

  2. 75 FR 76423 - Defense Intelligence Agency National Defense Intelligence College Board of Visitors Closed Meeting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-08

    ... DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE Office of the Secretary Defense Intelligence Agency National Defense Intelligence College Board of Visitors Closed Meeting AGENCY: National Defense Intelligence College, Defense Intelligence Agency, Department of Defense. ACTION: Notice of Closed Meeting. SUMMARY: Pursuant to the...

  3. 76 FR 28960 - Defense Intelligence Agency National Defense Intelligence College Board of Visitors Closed Meeting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-05-19

    ... DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE Office of the Secretary Defense Intelligence Agency National Defense Intelligence College Board of Visitors Closed Meeting AGENCY: National Defense Intelligence College, Defense Intelligence Agency, Department of Defense. ACTION: Notice of Closed Meeting. SUMMARY: Pursuant to the...

  4. Air Warfare and Air Base Defense 1914-1973

    Science.gov (United States)

    1988-01-01

    338 X Conclusion ............................................. 343 A ppendices ...military operations. During the battle of Stalingrad, however, the need for a more focussed defense became acute . Between November 19, 1942, when the

  5. Optimization methods for logical inference

    CERN Document Server

    Chandru, Vijay

    2011-01-01

    Merging logic and mathematics in deductive inference-an innovative, cutting-edge approach. Optimization methods for logical inference? Absolutely, say Vijay Chandru and John Hooker, two major contributors to this rapidly expanding field. And even though ""solving logical inference problems with optimization methods may seem a bit like eating sauerkraut with chopsticks. . . it is the mathematical structure of a problem that determines whether an optimization model can help solve it, not the context in which the problem occurs."" Presenting powerful, proven optimization techniques for logic in

  6. A Planetary Defense Gateway for Smart Discovery of relevant Information for Decision Support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bambacus, Myra; Yang, Chaowei Phil; Leung, Ronald Y.; Barbee, Brent; Nuth, Joseph A.; Seery, Bernard; Jiang, Yongyao; Qin, Han; Li, Yun; Yu, Manzhu; hide

    2017-01-01

    A Planetary Defense Gateway for Smart Discovery of relevant Information for Decision Support presentation discussing background, framework architecture, current results, ongoing research, conclusions.

  7. On principles of inductive inference

    OpenAIRE

    Kostecki, Ryszard Paweł

    2011-01-01

    We propose an intersubjective epistemic approach to foundations of probability theory and statistical inference, based on relative entropy and category theory, and aimed to bypass the mathematical and conceptual problems of existing foundational approaches.

  8. Statistical inference via fiducial methods

    OpenAIRE

    Salomé, Diemer

    1998-01-01

    In this thesis the attention is restricted to inductive reasoning using a mathematical probability model. A statistical procedure prescribes, for every theoretically possible set of data, the inference about the unknown of interest. ... Zie: Summary

  9. Statistical inference for stochastic processes

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Basawa, Ishwar V; Prakasa Rao, B. L. S

    1980-01-01

    The aim of this monograph is to attempt to reduce the gap between theory and applications in the area of stochastic modelling, by directing the interest of future researchers to the inference aspects...

  10. A fallacious jar? The peculiar relation between descriptive premises and normative conclusions in neuroethics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, Nils-Frederic; Northoff, Georg

    2015-06-01

    Ethical questions have traditionally been approached through conceptual analysis. Inspired by the rapid advance of modern brain imaging techniques, however, some ethical questions appear in a new light. For example, hotly debated trolley dilemmas have recently been studied by psychologists and neuroscientists alike, arguing that their findings can support or debunk moral intuitions that underlie those dilemmas. Resulting from the wedding of philosophy and neuroscience, neuroethics has emerged as a novel interdisciplinary field that aims at drawing conclusive relationships between neuroscientific observations and normative ethics. A major goal of neuroethics is to derive normative ethical conclusions from the investigation of neural and psychological mechanisms underlying ethical theories, as well as moral judgments and intuitions. The focus of this article is to shed light on the structure and functioning of neuroethical arguments of this sort, and to reveal particular methodological challenges that lie concealed therein. We discuss the methodological problem of how one can--or, as the case may be, cannot--validly infer normative conclusions from neuroscientific observations. Moreover, we raise the issue of how preexisting normative ethical convictions threaten to invalidate the interpretation of neuroscientific data, and thus arrive at question-begging conclusions. Nonetheless, this is not to deny that current neuroethics rightly presumes that moral considerations about actual human lives demand empirically substantiated answers. Therefore, in conclusion, we offer some preliminary reflections on how the discussed methodological challenges can be met.

  11. COP21: defense stakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coldefy, Alain; Hulot, Nicolas; Aichi, Leila; Tertrais, Bruno; Paillard, Christophe-Alexandre; Piodi, Jerome; Regnier, Serge; Volpi, Jean-Luc; Descleves, Emmanuel; Garcin, Thierry; Granholm, Niklas; Wedin, Lars; Pouvreau, Ana; Henninger, Laurent

    2015-01-01

    The 21. Conference of the Parties (COP21) from the UN Framework Convention took place in Paris between November 30 and December 11, 2015. The challenge is to reach a universal agreement of fight against global warming and to control the carbon footprint of human activities. This topic is in the core of the Defense Ministry preoccupations. This special dossier takes stock of the question of defense issues linked with global warming. The dossier comprises 13 papers dealing with: 1 - COP21: defense stakes (Coldefy, A.); 2 - Warfare climate, a chance for peace (Hulot, N.); 3 - COP21 and defense (Aichi, L.); 4 - A war climate? (Tertrais, B.); 5 - Challenges the World has to face in the 21. century (Paillard, C.A.); 6 - Desertification: a time bomb in the heart of Sahel (Piodi, J.); 7 - The infrastructure department of defense in the fight against climate disturbance (Regnier, S.); 8 - Fight against global warming, a chance for the forces? (Volpi, J.L.); 9 - Sea and sustainable development (Descleves, E.); 10 - Rationales of Arctic's surrounding powers (Garcin, T.); 11 - Arctic: strategic stake (Granholm, N.; Wedin, L.); 12 - Strategic impact of Turkey's new energy choices (Pouvreau, A.); 13 - Climate and war: a brief historical outlook (Henninger, L.)

  12. Active inference, communication and hermeneutics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friston, Karl J; Frith, Christopher D

    2015-07-01

    Hermeneutics refers to interpretation and translation of text (typically ancient scriptures) but also applies to verbal and non-verbal communication. In a psychological setting it nicely frames the problem of inferring the intended content of a communication. In this paper, we offer a solution to the problem of neural hermeneutics based upon active inference. In active inference, action fulfils predictions about how we will behave (e.g., predicting we will speak). Crucially, these predictions can be used to predict both self and others--during speaking and listening respectively. Active inference mandates the suppression of prediction errors by updating an internal model that generates predictions--both at fast timescales (through perceptual inference) and slower timescales (through perceptual learning). If two agents adopt the same model, then--in principle--they can predict each other and minimise their mutual prediction errors. Heuristically, this ensures they are singing from the same hymn sheet. This paper builds upon recent work on active inference and communication to illustrate perceptual learning using simulated birdsongs. Our focus here is the neural hermeneutics implicit in learning, where communication facilitates long-term changes in generative models that are trying to predict each other. In other words, communication induces perceptual learning and enables others to (literally) change our minds and vice versa. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  13. Defense waste management plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-06-01

    Defense high-level waste (HLW) and defense transuranic (TRU) waste are in interim storage at three sites, namely: at the Savannah River Plant, in South Carolina; at the Hanford Reservation, in Washington; and at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, in Idaho. Defense TRU waste is also in interim storage at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, in Tennessee; at the Los Alamos National Laboratory, in New Mexico; and at the Nevada Test Site, in Nevada. (Figure E-2). This document describes a workable approach for the permanent disposal of high-level and transuranic waste from atomic energy defense activities. The plan does not address the disposal of suspect waste which has been conservatively considered to be high-level or transuranic waste but which can be shown to be low-level waste. This material will be processed and disposed of in accordance with low-level waste practices. The primary goal of this program is to utilize or dispose of high-level and transuranic waste routinely, safely, and effectively. This goal will include the disposal of the backlog of stored defense waste. A Reference Plan for each of the sites describes the sequence of steps leading to permanent disposal. No technological breakthroughs are required to implement the reference plan. Not all final decisions concerning the activities described in this document have been made. These decisions will depend on: completion of the National Environmental Policy Act process, authorization and appropriation of funds, agreements with states as appropriate, and in some cases, the results of pilot plant experiments and operational experience. The major elements of the reference plan for permanent disposal of defense high-level and transuranic waste are summarized

  14. Defensive Federal Litigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-08-20

    requires that all affirmative defenses be pleaded in the answer. The rule lists 19 specific affirmative defenses, such as estoppel , laches, res judicata...Brown, 22 F.3d 516 (2d Cir. 1994); Poole v. Rourke, 779 F. Supp. 1546 (E.D. Cal. 1991). 3-40 potential collateral estoppel .4. effect of the district...the back pay claim, which was over $10,000, to the Court of Claims. The court of appeals found that ൸Collateral estoppel prohibits relitigation of

  15. Energetic Techniques For Planetary Defense

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbee, B.; Bambacus, M.; Bruck Syal, M.; Greenaugh, K. C.; Leung, R. Y.; Plesko, C. S.

    2017-12-01

    Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) are asteroids and comets whose heliocentric orbits tend to approach or cross Earth's heliocentric orbit. NEOs of various sizes periodically collide with Earth, and efforts are currently underway to discover, track, and characterize NEOs so that those on Earth-impacting trajectories are discovered far enough in advance that we would have opportunities to deflect or destroy them prior to Earth impact, if warranted. We will describe current efforts by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) to assess options for energetic methods of deflecting or destroying hazardous NEOs. These methods include kinetic impactors, which are spacecraft designed to collide with an NEO and thereby alter the NEO's trajectory, and nuclear engineering devices, which are used to rapidly vaporize a layer of NEO surface material. Depending on the amount of energy imparted, this can result in either deflection of the NEO via alteration of its trajectory, or robust disruption of the NEO and dispersal of the remaining fragments. We have studied the efficacies and limitations of these techniques in simulations, and have combined the techniques with corresponding spacecraft designs and mission designs. From those results we have generalized planetary defense mission design strategies and drawn conclusions that are applicable to a range of plausible scenarios. We will present and summarize our research efforts to date, and describe approaches to carrying out planetary defense missions with energetic NEO deflection or disruption techniques.

  16. Optimal inference with suboptimal models: Addiction and active Bayesian inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartenbeck, Philipp; FitzGerald, Thomas H.B.; Mathys, Christoph; Dolan, Ray; Wurst, Friedrich; Kronbichler, Martin; Friston, Karl

    2015-01-01

    When casting behaviour as active (Bayesian) inference, optimal inference is defined with respect to an agent’s beliefs – based on its generative model of the world. This contrasts with normative accounts of choice behaviour, in which optimal actions are considered in relation to the true structure of the environment – as opposed to the agent’s beliefs about worldly states (or the task). This distinction shifts an understanding of suboptimal or pathological behaviour away from aberrant inference as such, to understanding the prior beliefs of a subject that cause them to behave less ‘optimally’ than our prior beliefs suggest they should behave. Put simply, suboptimal or pathological behaviour does not speak against understanding behaviour in terms of (Bayes optimal) inference, but rather calls for a more refined understanding of the subject’s generative model upon which their (optimal) Bayesian inference is based. Here, we discuss this fundamental distinction and its implications for understanding optimality, bounded rationality and pathological (choice) behaviour. We illustrate our argument using addictive choice behaviour in a recently described ‘limited offer’ task. Our simulations of pathological choices and addictive behaviour also generate some clear hypotheses, which we hope to pursue in ongoing empirical work. PMID:25561321

  17. Defense styles of pedophilic offenders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drapeau, Martin; Beretta, Véronique; de Roten, Yves; Koerner, Annett; Despland, Jean-Nicolas

    2008-04-01

    This pilot study investigated the defense styles of pedophile sexual offenders. Interviews with 20 pedophiles and 20 controls were scored using the Defense Mechanisms Rating Scales. Results showed that pedophiles had a significantly lower overall defensive functioning score than the controls. Pedophiles used significantly fewer obsessional-level defenses but more major image-distorting and action-level defenses. Results also suggested differences in the prevalence of individual defenses where pedophiles used more dissociation, displacement, denial, autistic fantasy, splitting of object, projective identification, acting out, and passive aggressive behavior but less intellectualization and rationalization.

  18. Strategic Framework for the Defense Acquisition System Understanding Defense Consolidation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Potts, Anthony W

    2007-01-01

    The 1993 policy to promote the consolidation of the United States defense industry began a series of acquisitions and mergers that went beyond the intent of the policy and left the Department of Defense (DoD...

  19. Strategic Framework for the Defense Acquisition System Understanding Defense Consolidation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Potts, Anthony W

    2007-01-01

    ...% of defense product sales annually. Defense consolidation has diminished the flexibility required for surge capacity, diminished competitive innovations in products, and reduced competitive pricing based on multiple sources for products...

  20. Defensive Passivity in Adolescence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenheim, Eliyahu; Gaoni, Bracha

    1977-01-01

    There are potentially healthy adolescents who display excessive reluctance to move toward independent decision and action. This research presents a clinical description of this "syndrome", conceptualizes it as a defensive maneuver against mourning over cherished childhood dreams and offers steps for therapeutic intervention. (Editor/RK)

  1. Defense radioactive waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hindman, T.B. Jr.

    1988-01-01

    The Office of Defense Programs (DP), U.S. Department of Energy, is responsible for the production of nuclear weapons and materials for national defense. Pursuant to this mission, DP operates a large industrial complex that employs over 60,000 people at various installations across the country. As a byproduct of their activities, these installations generate radioactive, hazardous, or mixed wastes that must be managed in a safe and cost-effective manner in compliance with all applicable Federal and STate environmental requirements. At the Federal level such requirements derive primarily from the Atomic Energy Act, the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA), the comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) and the Superfund Amendments and Reauthorization Act (SARA). Responsibility for DP activities in connection with the disposal of defense wastes is consolidated within the Office of Defense Waste and Transportation Management (DWTM). This paper discusses these activities which consist of five principal elements: the environmental restoration of inactive DP facilities and sites, the processing storage and disposal of wastes associated with ongoing operations at active DP facilities, research and development directed toward the long-term disposal of radioactive, hazardous, mixed wastes, technology development directly supporting regulatory compliance, and the development of policies, procedures, and technologies for assuring the safe transportation of radioactive and hazardous materials

  2. Auxins in defense strategies

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Čarná, Mária; Repka, V.; Skůpa, Petr; Šturdík, E.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 69, č. 10 (2014), s. 1255-1263 ISSN 0006-3088 R&D Projects: GA TA ČR TA01011802 Institutional support: RVO:61389030 Keywords : auxin * defense responses * JA Subject RIV: GF - Plant Pathology, Vermin, Weed, Plant Protection Impact factor: 0.827, year: 2014

  3. Hanford defense waste studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Napier, B.A.; Zimmerman, M.G.; Soldat, J.K.

    1981-01-01

    PNL is assisting Rockwell Hanford Operations to prepare a programmatic environmental impact statement for the management of Hanford defense nuclear waste. The Ecological Sciences Department is leading the task of calculation of public radiation doses from a large matrix of potential routine and accidental releases of radionuclides to the environment

  4. Rethinking Defensive Information Warfare

    Science.gov (United States)

    2004-06-01

    Countless studies, however, have demonstrated the weakness in this system.15 The tension between easily remembered passwords and suffi...vulnerabilities Undiscovered flaws The patch model for Internet security has failed spectacularly. Caida , 2004 Signature-Based Defense Anti virus, intrusion

  5. Defense Logistics Agency Revenue Eliminations

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    1996-01-01

    The issue of revenue eliminations was identified during our work on the Defense Logistics Agency portion of the Audit of Revenue Accounts in the FY 1996 Financial Statements of the Defense Business Operations Fund...

  6. Hypothesis, Prediction, and Conclusion: Using Nature of Science Terminology Correctly

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eastwell, Peter

    2012-01-01

    This paper defines the terms "hypothesis," "prediction," and "conclusion" and shows how to use the terms correctly in scientific investigations in both the school and science education research contexts. The scientific method, or hypothetico-deductive (HD) approach, is described and it is argued that an understanding of the scientific method,…

  7. Conclusion Chapters in Doctoral Theses: Some International Findings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trafford, Vernon; Leshem, Shosh; Bitzer, Eli

    2014-01-01

    This study investigated how candidates claimed to have made an original contribution to knowledge in the conclusion chapters of 100 PhD theses. Documentary analysis was used to discover how this was explained within theses at selected universities in three countries. No other documents were accessed and neither were candidates, supervisors or…

  8. Overview of human health in the Arctic: conclusions and recommendations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donaldson, Shawn; Adlard, Bryan; Odland, Jon Øyvind

    2016-01-01

    This article is intended to provide an overview of the key conclusions, knowledge gaps and key recommendations based on the recent 2015 Arctic human health assessment under the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program. This assessment was based primarily on data from human health monitoring and research studies and peer-reviewed literature published since the last assessment in 2009.

  9. 20 CFR 901.48 - Proposed findings and conclusions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... Law Judge, before making his/her decision, shall give the parties a reasonable opportunity to submit... 20 Employees' Benefits 3 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Proposed findings and conclusions. 901.48 Section 901.48 Employees' Benefits JOINT BOARD FOR THE ENROLLMENT OF ACTUARIES REGULATIONS GOVERNING THE...

  10. Actual Problems of Conclusion and Discharge of Urgent Labour Contracts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shevelyova A. A.

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available This article is devoted to the consideration of the questions connected with the conclusion and the termination of the urgent labour contract. The author, analyzing judicial practice, allocates the problems of separate regulation of the RF labour legislation enforcement.

  11. Bootstrapping phylogenies inferred from rearrangement data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lin Yu

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Large-scale sequencing of genomes has enabled the inference of phylogenies based on the evolution of genomic architecture, under such events as rearrangements, duplications, and losses. Many evolutionary models and associated algorithms have been designed over the last few years and have found use in comparative genomics and phylogenetic inference. However, the assessment of phylogenies built from such data has not been properly addressed to date. The standard method used in sequence-based phylogenetic inference is the bootstrap, but it relies on a large number of homologous characters that can be resampled; yet in the case of rearrangements, the entire genome is a single character. Alternatives such as the jackknife suffer from the same problem, while likelihood tests cannot be applied in the absence of well established probabilistic models. Results We present a new approach to the assessment of distance-based phylogenetic inference from whole-genome data; our approach combines features of the jackknife and the bootstrap and remains nonparametric. For each feature of our method, we give an equivalent feature in the sequence-based framework; we also present the results of extensive experimental testing, in both sequence-based and genome-based frameworks. Through the feature-by-feature comparison and the experimental results, we show that our bootstrapping approach is on par with the classic phylogenetic bootstrap used in sequence-based reconstruction, and we establish the clear superiority of the classic bootstrap for sequence data and of our corresponding new approach for rearrangement data over proposed variants. Finally, we test our approach on a small dataset of mammalian genomes, verifying that the support values match current thinking about the respective branches. Conclusions Our method is the first to provide a standard of assessment to match that of the classic phylogenetic bootstrap for aligned sequences. Its

  12. Interactive Instruction in Bayesian Inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khan, Azam; Breslav, Simon; Hornbæk, Kasper

    2018-01-01

    An instructional approach is presented to improve human performance in solving Bayesian inference problems. Starting from the original text of the classic Mammography Problem, the textual expression is modified and visualizations are added according to Mayer’s principles of instruction. These pri......An instructional approach is presented to improve human performance in solving Bayesian inference problems. Starting from the original text of the classic Mammography Problem, the textual expression is modified and visualizations are added according to Mayer’s principles of instruction....... These principles concern coherence, personalization, signaling, segmenting, multimedia, spatial contiguity, and pretraining. Principles of self-explanation and interactivity are also applied. Four experiments on the Mammography Problem showed that these principles help participants answer the questions...... that an instructional approach to improving human performance in Bayesian inference is a promising direction....

  13. On Maximum Entropy and Inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luigi Gresele

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Maximum entropy is a powerful concept that entails a sharp separation between relevant and irrelevant variables. It is typically invoked in inference, once an assumption is made on what the relevant variables are, in order to estimate a model from data, that affords predictions on all other (dependent variables. Conversely, maximum entropy can be invoked to retrieve the relevant variables (sufficient statistics directly from the data, once a model is identified by Bayesian model selection. We explore this approach in the case of spin models with interactions of arbitrary order, and we discuss how relevant interactions can be inferred. In this perspective, the dimensionality of the inference problem is not set by the number of parameters in the model, but by the frequency distribution of the data. We illustrate the method showing its ability to recover the correct model in a few prototype cases and discuss its application on a real dataset.

  14. Eight challenges in phylodynamic inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon D.W. Frost

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The field of phylodynamics, which attempts to enhance our understanding of infectious disease dynamics using pathogen phylogenies, has made great strides in the past decade. Basic epidemiological and evolutionary models are now well characterized with inferential frameworks in place. However, significant challenges remain in extending phylodynamic inference to more complex systems. These challenges include accounting for evolutionary complexities such as changing mutation rates, selection, reassortment, and recombination, as well as epidemiological complexities such as stochastic population dynamics, host population structure, and different patterns at the within-host and between-host scales. An additional challenge exists in making efficient inferences from an ever increasing corpus of sequence data.

  15. Problem solving and inference mechanisms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Furukawa, K; Nakajima, R; Yonezawa, A; Goto, S; Aoyama, A

    1982-01-01

    The heart of the fifth generation computer will be powerful mechanisms for problem solving and inference. A deduction-oriented language is to be designed, which will form the core of the whole computing system. The language is based on predicate logic with the extended features of structuring facilities, meta structures and relational data base interfaces. Parallel computation mechanisms and specialized hardware architectures are being investigated to make possible efficient realization of the language features. The project includes research into an intelligent programming system, a knowledge representation language and system, and a meta inference system to be built on the core. 30 references.

  16. Conclusion: imaging in strategy of endocrine diagnosis and therapeutics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mornex, R.

    1995-01-01

    Images in medicine have to help the doctor in a diagnostic or therapeutic aim. The choice must be made in function of pathology or organ as known (it is not necessary to ask for a computed tomography where we know that only an echography can give the answer to the question we ask ), the criteria must stay the best performance for the cheapest price, but the quality of interpretation is a more important thing. It is important to avoid a lot of examinations which do not give better informations but are heavy to endure for the patients. In conclusion, the aim of this kind of proceedings is to assure to the patients who come confidently to us, the best service at the less constraints price without forgetting that a conclusion depends on a given methodological situation and reminding of beside machines we have not to forget the men

  17. Conclusive identification of quantum channels via monogamy of quantum correlations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kumar, Asutosh; Singha Roy, Sudipto; Pal, Amit Kumar; Prabhu, R.; Sen, Aditi; Sen, Ujjwal

    2016-01-01

    We investigate the action of global noise and local channels, namely, amplitude-damping, phase-damping, and depolarizing channels, on monogamy of quantum correlations, such as negativity and quantum discord, in three-qubit systems. We discuss the monotonic and non-monotonic variation, and robustness of the monogamy scores. By using monogamy scores, we propose a two-step protocol to conclusively identify the noise applied to the quantum system, by using generalized Greenberger–Horne–Zeilinger and generalized W states as resource states. We discuss a possible generalization of the results to higher number of parties. - Highlights: • Monogamy score monotonically decays with noise for generalized GHZ state as input. • Non-monotonically decaying monogamy score with noise for generalized W state as input. • Characterizing the dynamics of monogamy score. • Dynamics terminal quantifying robustness of monogamy score against noise. • Conclusively identifying the type of noise using monogamy score.

  18. Conclusive identification of quantum channels via monogamy of quantum correlations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kumar, Asutosh; Singha Roy, Sudipto; Pal, Amit Kumar [Harish-Chandra Research Institute, Chhatnag Road, Jhunsi, Allahabad 211019 (India); Homi Bhaba National Institute, Training School Complex, Anushaktinagar, Mumbai 400094 (India); Prabhu, R. [Harish-Chandra Research Institute, Chhatnag Road, Jhunsi, Allahabad 211019 (India); Homi Bhaba National Institute, Training School Complex, Anushaktinagar, Mumbai 400094 (India); Department of Physics, Indian Institute of Technology Patna, Bihta 801103, Bihar (India); Sen, Aditi, E-mail: aditi@hri.res.in [Harish-Chandra Research Institute, Chhatnag Road, Jhunsi, Allahabad 211019 (India); Homi Bhaba National Institute, Training School Complex, Anushaktinagar, Mumbai 400094 (India); Sen, Ujjwal [Harish-Chandra Research Institute, Chhatnag Road, Jhunsi, Allahabad 211019 (India); Homi Bhaba National Institute, Training School Complex, Anushaktinagar, Mumbai 400094 (India)

    2016-10-23

    We investigate the action of global noise and local channels, namely, amplitude-damping, phase-damping, and depolarizing channels, on monogamy of quantum correlations, such as negativity and quantum discord, in three-qubit systems. We discuss the monotonic and non-monotonic variation, and robustness of the monogamy scores. By using monogamy scores, we propose a two-step protocol to conclusively identify the noise applied to the quantum system, by using generalized Greenberger–Horne–Zeilinger and generalized W states as resource states. We discuss a possible generalization of the results to higher number of parties. - Highlights: • Monogamy score monotonically decays with noise for generalized GHZ state as input. • Non-monotonically decaying monogamy score with noise for generalized W state as input. • Characterizing the dynamics of monogamy score. • Dynamics terminal quantifying robustness of monogamy score against noise. • Conclusively identifying the type of noise using monogamy score.

  19. Biogeochemistry of uranium mill wastes program overview and conclusions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dreesen, D.R.

    1981-05-01

    The major findings and conclusions are summarized for research on uranium mill tailings for the US Department of Energy and the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. An overview of results and interpretations is presented for investigations of 222 Rn emissions, revegetation of tailings and mine spoils, and trace element enrichment, mobility, and bioavailability. A brief discussion addresses the implications of these findings in relation to tailings disposal technology and proposed uranium recovery processes

  20. Summary and Conclusions. Final chapter of Scholarly Communication for Librarians.

    OpenAIRE

    Morrison, Heather

    2008-01-01

    Summary and Conclusions of Scholarly Communication for Librarians, a book designed to provide librarians at all levels with the basics of how scholarly communication works, an understanding of the academic library as an essential support for scholarly communication, the impact of the decisions librarians make, and emerging roles for libraries and librarians in scholarly communication. Includes major points from all chapters, on: scholarship, scholarly journals, the scholarly publishing indus...

  1. Review conclusions by Ernst and Canter regarding spinal manipulation refuted

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evans Roni

    2006-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract In the April 2006 issue of the Journal of Royal Society of Medicine, Ernst and Canter authored a review of the most recent systematic reviews on the effectiveness of spinal manipulation for any condition. The authors concluded that, except for back pain, spinal manipulation is not an effective intervention for any condition and, because of potential side effects, cannot be recommended for use at all in clinical practice. Based on a critical appraisal of their review, the authors of this commentary seriously challenge the conclusions by Ernst and Canter, who did not adhere to standard systematic review methodology, thus threatening the validity of their conclusions. There was no systematic assessment of the literature pertaining to the hazards of manipulation, including comparison to other therapies. Hence, their claim that the risks of manipulation outweigh the benefits, and thus spinal manipulation cannot be recommended as treatment for any condition, was not supported by the data analyzed. Their conclusions are misleading and not based on evidence that allow discrediting of a large body of professionals using spinal manipulation.

  2. Defense Primer: Procurement

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-02-10

    Usually, incremental funding is used to mitigate peaks and valleys in annual budgets caused by the cost of one item significantly changing the...base defense budget . DOD uses these funds to buy several different types of materiel, including  new items easily recognizable as military...pursues a policy of full funding for procurement, meaning that the total estimated cost of each unit must be funded in the year it is budgeted . In a

  3. Quadrennial Defense Review Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-02-01

    medicine , and computer network operations. While we continue to employ a mix of programs and incentives to recruit quality personnel, we are also...Lithuania* Singapore Australia Finland Luxembourg* Slovakia* Austria France* Macedonia Slovenia* Azerbaijan Georgia Montenegro Spain* Belgium...20,000 positions by 2015. We will continue to significantly enhance Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates meets with plant workers during a tour of an

  4. Whither Ballistic Missile Defense?

    Science.gov (United States)

    1992-11-30

    important that technology today is placing enormous power in the many camps-not only information that enables timely decision-making, but also the...WHITHER BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENSE? BY AMBASSADOR HENRY F. COOPER NOVEMBER 30,1992 TECHNICAL MARKETING SOCIETY OF AMERICA WASHINGTON, DC...Conference on Technical Marketing 2000: Opportunities and Strategies for a Changing World) I intend to discuss the prospects for SDI in a changing

  5. Object-Oriented Type Inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schwartzbach, Michael Ignatieff; Palsberg, Jens

    1991-01-01

    We present a new approach to inferring types in untyped object-oriented programs with inheritance, assignments, and late binding. It guarantees that all messages are understood, annotates the program with type information, allows polymorphic methods, and can be used as the basis of an op...

  6. Inference in hybrid Bayesian networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lanseth, Helge; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre; Rumí, Rafael

    2009-01-01

    Since the 1980s, Bayesian Networks (BNs) have become increasingly popular for building statistical models of complex systems. This is particularly true for boolean systems, where BNs often prove to be a more efficient modelling framework than traditional reliability-techniques (like fault trees...... decade's research on inference in hybrid Bayesian networks. The discussions are linked to an example model for estimating human reliability....

  7. Mixed normal inference on multicointegration

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boswijk, H.P.

    2009-01-01

    Asymptotic likelihood analysis of cointegration in I(2) models, see Johansen (1997, 2006), Boswijk (2000) and Paruolo (2000), has shown that inference on most parameters is mixed normal, implying hypothesis test statistics with an asymptotic 2 null distribution. The asymptotic distribution of the

  8. Impact of noise on molecular network inference.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radhakrishnan Nagarajan

    Full Text Available Molecular entities work in concert as a system and mediate phenotypic outcomes and disease states. There has been recent interest in modelling the associations between molecular entities from their observed expression profiles as networks using a battery of algorithms. These networks have proven to be useful abstractions of the underlying pathways and signalling mechanisms. Noise is ubiquitous in molecular data and can have a pronounced effect on the inferred network. Noise can be an outcome of several factors including: inherent stochastic mechanisms at the molecular level, variation in the abundance of molecules, heterogeneity, sensitivity of the biological assay or measurement artefacts prevalent especially in high-throughput settings. The present study investigates the impact of discrepancies in noise variance on pair-wise dependencies, conditional dependencies and constraint-based Bayesian network structure learning algorithms that incorporate conditional independence tests as a part of the learning process. Popular network motifs and fundamental connections, namely: (a common-effect, (b three-chain, and (c coherent type-I feed-forward loop (FFL are investigated. The choice of these elementary networks can be attributed to their prevalence across more complex networks. Analytical expressions elucidating the impact of discrepancies in noise variance on pairwise dependencies and conditional dependencies for special cases of these motifs are presented. Subsequently, the impact of noise on two popular constraint-based Bayesian network structure learning algorithms such as Grow-Shrink (GS and Incremental Association Markov Blanket (IAMB that implicitly incorporate tests for conditional independence is investigated. Finally, the impact of noise on networks inferred from publicly available single cell molecular expression profiles is investigated. While discrepancies in noise variance are overlooked in routine molecular network inference, the

  9. On the Ability To Infer Deficiency in Mathematics From Performance in Physics Using Hierarchies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riban, David M.

    1971-01-01

    Presents the procedures, results, and conclusions of a study designed to see if mathematical deficiencies can be inferred from PSSC students' performance by using a hierarchical model of requisite skills. Assuming inferences were possible, remediation was given. No effect due to remediation was observed but analysis indicated incidental learning…

  10. Plant defense against insect herbivores

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fürstenberg-Hägg, Joel; Zagrobelny, Mika; Bak, Søren

    2013-01-01

    , defense compounds. These bioactive specialized plant defense compounds may repel or intoxicate insects, while defense proteins often interfere with their digestion. Volatiles are released upon herbivory to repel herbivores, attract predators or for communication between leaves or plants, and to induce......Plants have been interacting with insects for several hundred million years, leading to complex defense approaches against various insect feeding strategies. Some defenses are constitutive while others are induced, although the insecticidal defense compound or protein classes are often similar...... defense responses. Plants also apply morphological features like waxes, trichomes and latices to make the feeding more difficult for the insects. Extrafloral nectar, food bodies and nesting or refuge sites are produced to accommodate and feed the predators of the herbivores. Meanwhile, herbivorous insects...

  11. It pays to be green. A premature conclusion?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Telle, K.

    2006-01-01

    It has been claimed that good environmental performance can improve firms' economic performance. However, because of e.g. data limitations, the methods applied in most previous quantitative empirical studies on effects of environmental performance on economic performance of firms suffer from several shortcomings. We discuss these shortcomings and conclude that previously applied methods are unsatisfactory as support for a conclusion that it pays for firms to be green. Then we illustrate the consequences of these shortcomings by performing several regression analyses of the effect of environmental performance on economic performance using a panel data set of Norwegian plants. A pooled regression where observable firm characteristics like e.g. size or industry are controlled for, confirms a positive effect of environmental performance on economic performance. However, the estimated positive effect could be due to omitted unobserved variables like management or technology. When the regression model controls for unobserved plant heterogeneity, the effect is generally no longer statistically significant. Hence, although greener plants tend to perform economically better, the analysis provides little support for the claim that it is because they are greener. These empirical findings further indicate that a conclusion that it pays to be green is premature

  12. Graphical models for inferring single molecule dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gonzalez Ruben L

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The recent explosion of experimental techniques in single molecule biophysics has generated a variety of novel time series data requiring equally novel computational tools for analysis and inference. This article describes in general terms how graphical modeling may be used to learn from biophysical time series data using the variational Bayesian expectation maximization algorithm (VBEM. The discussion is illustrated by the example of single-molecule fluorescence resonance energy transfer (smFRET versus time data, where the smFRET time series is modeled as a hidden Markov model (HMM with Gaussian observables. A detailed description of smFRET is provided as well. Results The VBEM algorithm returns the model’s evidence and an approximating posterior parameter distribution given the data. The former provides a metric for model selection via maximum evidence (ME, and the latter a description of the model’s parameters learned from the data. ME/VBEM provide several advantages over the more commonly used approach of maximum likelihood (ML optimized by the expectation maximization (EM algorithm, the most important being a natural form of model selection and a well-posed (non-divergent optimization problem. Conclusions The results demonstrate the utility of graphical modeling for inference of dynamic processes in single molecule biophysics.

  13. Illusory inferences from a disjunction of conditionals: a new mental models account.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrouillet, P; Lecas, J F

    2000-08-14

    (Johnson-Laird, P.N., & Savary, F. (1999, Illusory inferences: a novel class of erroneous deductions. Cognition, 71, 191-229.) have recently presented a mental models account, based on the so-called principle of truth, for the occurrence of inferences that are compelling but invalid. This article presents an alternative account of the illusory inferences resulting from a disjunction of conditionals. In accordance with our modified theory of mental models of the conditional, we show that the way individuals represent conditionals leads them to misinterpret the locus of the disjunction and prevents them from drawing conclusions from a false conditional, thus accounting for the compelling character of the illusory inference.

  14. Conclusion of the I.C.T. benchmark exercise

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giacometti, A.

    1991-01-01

    The ICT Benchmark exercise made within the RIV working group of ESARDA on reprocessing data supplied by COGEMA for 53 routines reprocessing input batches made of 110 irradiated fuel assemblies from KWO Nuclear Power Plant was finally evaluated. The conclusions are: all seven different ICT methods applied verified the operator data on plutonium within about one percent; anomalies intentionally introduced to the operator data were detected in 90% of the cases; the nature of the introduced anomalies, which were unknown to the participants, was completely resolved for the safeguards relevant cases; the false alarm rate was in a few percent range. The ICT Benchmark results shows that this technique is capable of detecting and resolving anomalies in the reprocessing input data to the order of a percent

  15. The no conclusion intervention for couples in conflict.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Migerode, Lieven

    2014-07-01

    Dealing with difference is central to all couple therapy. This article presents an intervention designed to assist couples in handling conflict. Central to this approach is the acceptance that most conflicts cannot be solved. Couples are in need of a different understanding of couples conflict. This understanding is found in the analysis of love in context and in relational dialectics. Couples are guided through different steps: deciding on the valence of the issue as individuals, helping them decide which differences can be resolved and which issues demand new ways of living with the inevitable, and the introduction in the suggested no conclusion dialogue. This article briefly describes the five day intensive couple therapy program, in which the no intervention is embedded. The theoretical foundation of the intervention, followed by the step by step description of the intervention forms the major part of the article. A case vignette illustrates this approach. © 2012 American Association for Marriage and Family Therapy.

  16. The European Food Consumption Validation Project: conclusions and recommendations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    de Boer, E. J.; Slimani, N.; van 't Veer, P.

    2011-01-01

    Background/Objectives: To outline and discuss the main results and conclusions of the European Food Consumption Validation (EFCOVAL) Project. Subjects/Methods: The EFCOVAL Project was carried out within the EU Sixth Framework Program by researchers in 11 EU countries. The activities focused on (1...... showed that two non-consecutive EPIC-Soft 24-HDRs are suitable to estimate the usual intake distributions of protein and potassium of European adult populations. The 2-day non-consecutive 24-HDRs in combination with a food propensity questionnaire also appeared to be appropriate to rank individuals...... according to their fish and fruit and vegetable intake in a comparable way in five European centers. Dietary intake of (young) children can be assessed by the combination of EPIC-Soft 24-HDRs and food recording booklets. The EPIC-Soft-standardized method of describing foods is useful to estimate dietary...

  17. The accident at the Harrisburg nuclear reactor - Interim conclusions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yiftah, S.

    1979-07-01

    This work describes the first minutes, first day and first week following the Three Mile Island accident. It shows the failures that occurred and the lessons which should be derived. It is pointed out that the doses of radiation that escaped from the TMI plant were at no time large enough to have had any effect on the 2 million people living on a radius of 80 km from the plant. Although no casualties occurred the Harrisburg accident will create an impulse for a new study and understanding of the nuclear plant safety and might serve as a live safety laboratory. After the TMI accident nuclear plants are already safer, one of the conclusions being that a new planning of the operation room is required, with the operators acquiring a better understanding of what is going on during a nuclear reactor accident. (B.G.)

  18. Workshop on large molten pool heat transfer summary and conclusions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-01-01

    The CSNI Workshop on Large Molten Heat Transfer held at Grenoble (France) in March 1994 was organised by CSNI's Principal Working Group on the Confinement of Accidental Radioactive Releases (PWG4) with the cooperation of the Principal Working Group on Coolant System Behaviour (FWG2) and in collaboration with the Grenoble Nuclear Research Centre of the French Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique (CEA). Conclusions and recommendations are given for each of the five sessions of the workshops: Feasibility of in-vessel core debris cooling through external cooling of the vessel; Experiments on molten pool heat transfer; Calculational efforts on molten pool convection; Heat transfer to the surrounding water - experimental techniques; Future experiments and ex-vessel studies (open forum discussion)

  19. Jumping to conclusions and the continuum of delusional beliefs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warman, Debbie M; Lysaker, Paul H; Martin, Joel M; Davis, Louanne; Haudenschield, Samantha L

    2007-06-01

    The present study examined the jumping to conclusions reasoning bias across the continuum of delusional ideation by investigating individuals with active delusions, delusion prone individuals, and non-delusion prone individuals. Neutral and highly self-referent probabilistic reasoning tasks were employed. Results indicated that individuals with delusions gathered significantly less information than delusion prone and non-delusion prone participants on both the neutral and self-referent tasks, (preferent task (p=.002). Those with delusions and those who were delusion prone reported higher confidence in their performance on the self-referent task than they did the neutral task (p=.02), indicating that high self-reference impacted information processing for individuals in both of these groups. The results are discussed in relation to previous research in the area of probabilistic reasoning and delusions.

  20. Snakebites in French Guiana: Conclusions of an international symposium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kallel, Hatem; Hommel, Didier; Mehdaoui, Hossein; Megarbane, Bruno; Resiere, Dabor

    2018-05-01

    A workshop on epidemiology and management of snakebites in French Guiana was performed at Cayenne, French Guiana from September 15 to September 16, 2017, under the auspices of the French Regional Health Agency (ARS) and the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO). The activity was attended by experts from France (Angers, Martinique, French Guiana, Guadeloupe, and Paris), Costa Rica, Brazil, Saint Lucia, and Surinam. The epidemiology, clinical manifestations, clinical grading and the management of snakebite in French Guiana were discussed. The conclusions of this symposium illustrated the urgent need to ensure accessibility of effective and safe polyvalent viperid antivenom in French Guiana. Finally, the results of this symposium have forged ties based on mutual goals and objectives. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. DEFENSE PROGRAMS RISK MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Constantin PREDA

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available For the past years defense programs have faced delays in delivering defense capabilities and budget overruns. Stakeholders are looking for ways to improve program management and the decision making process given the very fluid and uncertain economic and political environment. Consequently, they have increasingly resorted to risk management as the main management tool for achieving defense programs objectives and for delivering the defense capabilities strongly needed for the soldiers on the ground on time and within limited defense budgets. Following a risk management based decision-making approach the stakeholders are expected not only to protect program objectives against a wide range of risks but, at the same time, to take advantage of the opportunities to increase the likelihood of program success. The prerequisite for making risk management the main tool for achieving defense programs objectives is the design and implementation of a strong risk management framework as a foundation providing an efficient and effective application of the best risk management practices. The aim of this paper is to examine the risk management framework for defense programs based on the ISO 31000:2009 standard, best risk management practices and the defense programs’ needs and particularities. For the purposes of this article, the term of defense programs refers to joint defense programs.

  2. Paradoxical versus modulated conditional inferences: An explanation from the Stoicism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miguel López-Astorga

    Full Text Available Abstract According to standard propositional logic, the inferences in which the conditional introduction rule is used are absolutely correct. However, people do not always accept inferences of that kind. Orenes and Johnson-Laird carried out interesting experiments in this way and, based on the general framework of the mental models theory, explained clearly in which cases and under which circumstances such inferences are accepted and rejected. The goals of this paper are both to better understand some aspects of Stoic logic and to check whether or not that very logic can also offer an account on this issue. My conclusions are that, indeed, this later logic can do that, and that the results obtained by Orenes and Johnson-Laird can be explained based on the information that the sources provide on Stoic logic.

  3. Technical Note: How to use Winbugs to infer animal models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Damgaard, Lars Holm

    2007-01-01

    This paper deals with Bayesian inferences of animal models using Gibbs sampling. First, we suggest a general and efficient method for updating additive genetic effects, in which the computational cost is independent of the pedigree depth and increases linearly only with the size of the pedigree....... Second, we show how this approach can be used to draw inferences from a wide range of animal models using the computer package Winbugs. Finally, we illustrate the approach in a simulation study, in which the data are generated and analyzed using Winbugs according to a linear model with i.i.d errors...... having Student's t distributions. In conclusion, Winbugs can be used to make inferences in small-sized, quantitative, genetic data sets applying a wide range of animal models that are not yet standard in the animal breeding literature...

  4. Automatic inference of indexing rules for MEDLINE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shooshan Sonya E

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background: Indexing is a crucial step in any information retrieval system. In MEDLINE, a widely used database of the biomedical literature, the indexing process involves the selection of Medical Subject Headings in order to describe the subject matter of articles. The need for automatic tools to assist MEDLINE indexers in this task is growing with the increasing number of publications being added to MEDLINE. Methods: In this paper, we describe the use and the customization of Inductive Logic Programming (ILP to infer indexing rules that may be used to produce automatic indexing recommendations for MEDLINE indexers. Results: Our results show that this original ILP-based approach outperforms manual rules when they exist. In addition, the use of ILP rules also improves the overall performance of the Medical Text Indexer (MTI, a system producing automatic indexing recommendations for MEDLINE. Conclusion: We expect the sets of ILP rules obtained in this experiment to be integrated into MTI.

  5. Summary of the discussion, Conclusion of the meeting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crutzen, S.

    1997-01-01

    The discussion was organised in three major periods corresponding to the main themes developed by the programme of the meeting: the qualification approaches, the qualification experience accumulated so far, one particular frame or motivation of the ISI qualification: the risk based (or informed) ISI. The qualification approaches presented by national representatives raised few questions. More discussion was induced on the qualification concepts, responsibilities, need and writing of the technical justification, motivation for the open trials, similitude between concepts, benefit deriving from the qualification of inspection procedures and further motivation. the conclusion could be as the following: the evolution of qualification applications, even if issued from harmonised concepts, appears to be nationalistically based. It is a thought that emulation and harmonisation could actually produce both savings and improvements in this area. 'The wheel does not have to be re-invented in each country' and it is the declared objective of ENIQ. There seems to be a need for some international agreement in the setting of standards for qualification. One area which seems to continue to be of underlying concern is in the characterisation of defects. There seems to be a need for appropriate 'defected blocks' satisfying the criteria of representativeness, quality, low cost, reproducibility, etc. More specific cases of Technical Justification development are needed to serve as examples and incentive for the case of this element of inspection qualification

  6. Statistical learning and selective inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Jonathan; Tibshirani, Robert J

    2015-06-23

    We describe the problem of "selective inference." This addresses the following challenge: Having mined a set of data to find potential associations, how do we properly assess the strength of these associations? The fact that we have "cherry-picked"--searched for the strongest associations--means that we must set a higher bar for declaring significant the associations that we see. This challenge becomes more important in the era of big data and complex statistical modeling. The cherry tree (dataset) can be very large and the tools for cherry picking (statistical learning methods) are now very sophisticated. We describe some recent new developments in selective inference and illustrate their use in forward stepwise regression, the lasso, and principal components analysis.

  7. Bayesian inference with ecological applications

    CERN Document Server

    Link, William A

    2009-01-01

    This text is written to provide a mathematically sound but accessible and engaging introduction to Bayesian inference specifically for environmental scientists, ecologists and wildlife biologists. It emphasizes the power and usefulness of Bayesian methods in an ecological context. The advent of fast personal computers and easily available software has simplified the use of Bayesian and hierarchical models . One obstacle remains for ecologists and wildlife biologists, namely the near absence of Bayesian texts written specifically for them. The book includes many relevant examples, is supported by software and examples on a companion website and will become an essential grounding in this approach for students and research ecologists. Engagingly written text specifically designed to demystify a complex subject Examples drawn from ecology and wildlife research An essential grounding for graduate and research ecologists in the increasingly prevalent Bayesian approach to inference Companion website with analyt...

  8. Statistical inference an integrated approach

    CERN Document Server

    Migon, Helio S; Louzada, Francisco

    2014-01-01

    Introduction Information The concept of probability Assessing subjective probabilities An example Linear algebra and probability Notation Outline of the bookElements of Inference Common statistical modelsLikelihood-based functions Bayes theorem Exchangeability Sufficiency and exponential family Parameter elimination Prior Distribution Entirely subjective specification Specification through functional forms Conjugacy with the exponential family Non-informative priors Hierarchical priors Estimation Introduction to decision theoryBayesian point estimation Classical point estimation Empirical Bayes estimation Comparison of estimators Interval estimation Estimation in the Normal model Approximating Methods The general problem of inference Optimization techniquesAsymptotic theory Other analytical approximations Numerical integration methods Simulation methods Hypothesis Testing Introduction Classical hypothesis testingBayesian hypothesis testing Hypothesis testing and confidence intervalsAsymptotic tests Prediction...

  9. Bayesian inference on proportional elections.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Hideki Vatanabe Brunello

    Full Text Available Polls for majoritarian voting systems usually show estimates of the percentage of votes for each candidate. However, proportional vote systems do not necessarily guarantee the candidate with the most percentage of votes will be elected. Thus, traditional methods used in majoritarian elections cannot be applied on proportional elections. In this context, the purpose of this paper was to perform a Bayesian inference on proportional elections considering the Brazilian system of seats distribution. More specifically, a methodology to answer the probability that a given party will have representation on the chamber of deputies was developed. Inferences were made on a Bayesian scenario using the Monte Carlo simulation technique, and the developed methodology was applied on data from the Brazilian elections for Members of the Legislative Assembly and Federal Chamber of Deputies in 2010. A performance rate was also presented to evaluate the efficiency of the methodology. Calculations and simulations were carried out using the free R statistical software.

  10. Causal inference based on counterfactuals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Höfler M

    2005-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The counterfactual or potential outcome model has become increasingly standard for causal inference in epidemiological and medical studies. Discussion This paper provides an overview on the counterfactual and related approaches. A variety of conceptual as well as practical issues when estimating causal effects are reviewed. These include causal interactions, imperfect experiments, adjustment for confounding, time-varying exposures, competing risks and the probability of causation. It is argued that the counterfactual model of causal effects captures the main aspects of causality in health sciences and relates to many statistical procedures. Summary Counterfactuals are the basis of causal inference in medicine and epidemiology. Nevertheless, the estimation of counterfactual differences pose several difficulties, primarily in observational studies. These problems, however, reflect fundamental barriers only when learning from observations, and this does not invalidate the counterfactual concept.

  11. System Support for Forensic Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gehani, Ashish; Kirchner, Florent; Shankar, Natarajan

    Digital evidence is playing an increasingly important role in prosecuting crimes. The reasons are manifold: financially lucrative targets are now connected online, systems are so complex that vulnerabilities abound and strong digital identities are being adopted, making audit trails more useful. If the discoveries of forensic analysts are to hold up to scrutiny in court, they must meet the standard for scientific evidence. Software systems are currently developed without consideration of this fact. This paper argues for the development of a formal framework for constructing “digital artifacts” that can serve as proxies for physical evidence; a system so imbued would facilitate sound digital forensic inference. A case study involving a filesystem augmentation that provides transparent support for forensic inference is described.

  12. Probability biases as Bayesian inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andre; C. R. Martins

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available In this article, I will show how several observed biases in human probabilistic reasoning can be partially explained as good heuristics for making inferences in an environment where probabilities have uncertainties associated to them. Previous results show that the weight functions and the observed violations of coalescing and stochastic dominance can be understood from a Bayesian point of view. We will review those results and see that Bayesian methods should also be used as part of the explanation behind other known biases. That means that, although the observed errors are still errors under the be understood as adaptations to the solution of real life problems. Heuristics that allow fast evaluations and mimic a Bayesian inference would be an evolutionary advantage, since they would give us an efficient way of making decisions. %XX In that sense, it should be no surprise that humans reason with % probability as it has been observed.

  13. Statistical inference on residual life

    CERN Document Server

    Jeong, Jong-Hyeon

    2014-01-01

    This is a monograph on the concept of residual life, which is an alternative summary measure of time-to-event data, or survival data. The mean residual life has been used for many years under the name of life expectancy, so it is a natural concept for summarizing survival or reliability data. It is also more interpretable than the popular hazard function, especially for communications between patients and physicians regarding the efficacy of a new drug in the medical field. This book reviews existing statistical methods to infer the residual life distribution. The review and comparison includes existing inference methods for mean and median, or quantile, residual life analysis through medical data examples. The concept of the residual life is also extended to competing risks analysis. The targeted audience includes biostatisticians, graduate students, and PhD (bio)statisticians. Knowledge in survival analysis at an introductory graduate level is advisable prior to reading this book.

  14. Nonparametric Bayesian inference in biostatistics

    CERN Document Server

    Müller, Peter

    2015-01-01

    As chapters in this book demonstrate, BNP has important uses in clinical sciences and inference for issues like unknown partitions in genomics. Nonparametric Bayesian approaches (BNP) play an ever expanding role in biostatistical inference from use in proteomics to clinical trials. Many research problems involve an abundance of data and require flexible and complex probability models beyond the traditional parametric approaches. As this book's expert contributors show, BNP approaches can be the answer. Survival Analysis, in particular survival regression, has traditionally used BNP, but BNP's potential is now very broad. This applies to important tasks like arrangement of patients into clinically meaningful subpopulations and segmenting the genome into functionally distinct regions. This book is designed to both review and introduce application areas for BNP. While existing books provide theoretical foundations, this book connects theory to practice through engaging examples and research questions. Chapters c...

  15. Statistical inference a short course

    CERN Document Server

    Panik, Michael J

    2012-01-01

    A concise, easily accessible introduction to descriptive and inferential techniques Statistical Inference: A Short Course offers a concise presentation of the essentials of basic statistics for readers seeking to acquire a working knowledge of statistical concepts, measures, and procedures. The author conducts tests on the assumption of randomness and normality, provides nonparametric methods when parametric approaches might not work. The book also explores how to determine a confidence interval for a population median while also providing coverage of ratio estimation, randomness, and causal

  16. On Quantum Statistical Inference, II

    OpenAIRE

    Barndorff-Nielsen, O. E.; Gill, R. D.; Jupp, P. E.

    2003-01-01

    Interest in problems of statistical inference connected to measurements of quantum systems has recently increased substantially, in step with dramatic new developments in experimental techniques for studying small quantum systems. Furthermore, theoretical developments in the theory of quantum measurements have brought the basic mathematical framework for the probability calculations much closer to that of classical probability theory. The present paper reviews this field and proposes and inte...

  17. Nonparametric predictive inference in reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coolen, F.P.A.; Coolen-Schrijner, P.; Yan, K.J.

    2002-01-01

    We introduce a recently developed statistical approach, called nonparametric predictive inference (NPI), to reliability. Bounds for the survival function for a future observation are presented. We illustrate how NPI can deal with right-censored data, and discuss aspects of competing risks. We present possible applications of NPI for Bernoulli data, and we briefly outline applications of NPI for replacement decisions. The emphasis is on introduction and illustration of NPI in reliability contexts, detailed mathematical justifications are presented elsewhere

  18. Nanomaterials for Defense Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turaga, Uday; Singh, Vinitkumar; Lalagiri, Muralidhar; Kiekens, Paul; Ramkumar, Seshadri S.

    Nanotechnology has found a number of applications in electronics and healthcare. Within the textile field, applications of nanotechnology have been limited to filters, protective liners for chemical and biological clothing and nanocoatings. This chapter presents an overview of the applications of nanomaterials such as nanofibers and nanoparticles that are of use to military and industrial sectors. An effort has been made to categorize nanofibers based on the method of production. This chapter particularly focuses on a few latest developments that have taken place with regard to the application of nanomaterials such as metal oxides in the defense arena.

  19. Phenomenon of Psychological Defense

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena T. Sokolova

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The author discusses the controversial issues of formation and functioning of psy¬chological defense mechanisms in ontogenesis and in personality disorders as they are represented in classical and contemporary psychoanalysis, in cognitivism and communication theory. The paper emphasizes the role of cognitive organi¬zation (style, sign-symbolic mediation, representative system of object relations and attachments in individual typological variability of the level organization of ciency of personal and social adaptation, in maturity and mental health of personality

  20. Data-driven inference for the spatial scan statistic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Duczmal Luiz H

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Kulldorff's spatial scan statistic for aggregated area maps searches for clusters of cases without specifying their size (number of areas or geographic location in advance. Their statistical significance is tested while adjusting for the multiple testing inherent in such a procedure. However, as is shown in this work, this adjustment is not done in an even manner for all possible cluster sizes. Results A modification is proposed to the usual inference test of the spatial scan statistic, incorporating additional information about the size of the most likely cluster found. A new interpretation of the results of the spatial scan statistic is done, posing a modified inference question: what is the probability that the null hypothesis is rejected for the original observed cases map with a most likely cluster of size k, taking into account only those most likely clusters of size k found under null hypothesis for comparison? This question is especially important when the p-value computed by the usual inference process is near the alpha significance level, regarding the correctness of the decision based in this inference. Conclusions A practical procedure is provided to make more accurate inferences about the most likely cluster found by the spatial scan statistic.

  1. Defense Treaty Inspection Readiness Program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cronin, J.J.; Kohen, M.D.; Rivers, J.D.

    1996-01-01

    The Defense Treaty Inspection Readiness Program (DTIRP) was established by the Department of Defense in 1990 to assist defense facilities in preparing for treaty verification activities. Led by the On-Site Inspection Agency (OSIA), an element of the Department of Defense, DTIRP''s membership includes representatives from other Department of Defense agencies, the Department of Energy (DOE), the Central Intelligence Agency, the Federal Bureau of Investigation, the Department of Commerce, and others. The Office of Safeguards and Security has a significant interest in this program, due to the number of national defense facilities within its purview that are candidates for future inspections. As a result, the Office of Safeguards and Security has taken a very active role in DTIRP. This paper discusses the Office of Safeguards and Security''s increasing involvement in various elements of the DTIRP, ranging from facility assessments to training development and implementation

  2. Variational inference & deep learning : A new synthesis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kingma, D.P.

    2017-01-01

    In this thesis, Variational Inference and Deep Learning: A New Synthesis, we propose novel solutions to the problems of variational (Bayesian) inference, generative modeling, representation learning, semi-supervised learning, and stochastic optimization.

  3. Variational inference & deep learning: A new synthesis

    OpenAIRE

    Kingma, D.P.

    2017-01-01

    In this thesis, Variational Inference and Deep Learning: A New Synthesis, we propose novel solutions to the problems of variational (Bayesian) inference, generative modeling, representation learning, semi-supervised learning, and stochastic optimization.

  4. Continuous Integrated Invariant Inference, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The proposed project will develop a new technique for invariant inference and embed this and other current invariant inference and checking techniques in an...

  5. Medical irradiation of children. Beware of too fast conclusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brisse, H.; Sirinelli, D.; Adamsbaum, C.; Chateil, J.F.; Claudon, M.; Geoffray, A.; Petit, P.; Rausin, L.; Panuel, M.

    2004-01-01

    The publication in january 2004 in the British medical journal of the article of P. Hall and coll. 'Effect of low doses of ionizing irradiation in infancy on cognitive function in adulthood: Swedish population based cohort study, has been noticed by the Radiation protection group of the French speaking society of pediatrics imaging. The authors evaluate the psycho-motor development of less eighteen months years old children and irradiated between 1930 and 1959 for a face angioma. They study for each dose of irradiation ( from 0 to 250 m Gy) the level of school attendance and their results to the psycho-motor tests made during conscription medical examination. They noticed a diminution of 50% of the access success rate to university for the children having received an irradiation dose of 250 mG. No effect is noticed under the irradiation dose of 100 mGy. In their conclusions the authors compare these irradiation doses to these ones delivered in brain scanner examination. These results seem overestimated compared with the work made on fetuses ( publication 84 of ICRP) then the fetus is considered as more sensitive to ionizing radiations than the infant. The dose of 120 mGy is found in the literature and now the dose delivered in pediatrics are in the area of 0 and 100 mGy where no effect has been revealed in the cohort of irradiated children. The article does not include the principle of justification that is used nowadays and the replacement by the trans fontanel echography has allowed to reduce the number of brain scanner, used only for limited cases where the benefit is superior the the risk of irradiation. (N.C.)

  6. Plurihormonal cells of normal anterior pituitary: Facts and conclusions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitrofanova, Lubov B.; Konovalov, Petr V.; Krylova, Julia S.; Polyakova, Victoria O.; Kvetnoy, Igor M.

    2017-01-01

    Introduction plurihormonality of pituitary adenomas is an ability of adenoma cells to produce more than one hormone. After the immunohistochemical analysis had become a routine part of the morphological study, a great number of adenomas appeared to be multihormonal in actual practice. We hypothesize that the same cells of a normal pituitary gland releases several hormones simultaneously. Objective To analyse a possible co-expression of hormones by the cells of the normal anterior pituitary of adult humans in autopsy material. Materials and methods We studied 10 pituitary glands of 4 women and 6 men with cardiovascular and oncological diseases. Double staining immunohistochemistry using 11 hormone combinations was performed in all the cases. These combinations were: prolactin/thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH), prolactin/luteinizing hormone (LH), prolactin/follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH), prolactin/adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH), growth hormone (GH)/TSH, GH/LH, GH/FSH, GH/ACTH, TSH/LH, TSH/FSH, TSH/ACTH. Laser Confocal Scanning Microscopy with a mixture of primary antibodies was performed in 2 cases. These mixtures were ACTH/prolactin, FSH/prolactin, TSH/prolactin, ACTH/GH, and FSH/GH. Results We found that the same cells of the normal adenohypophysis can co-express prolactin with ACTH, TSH, FSH, LH; GH with ACTH, TSH, FSH, LH, and TSH with ACTH, FSH, LH. The comparison of the average co-expression coefficients of prolactin, GH and TSH with other hormones showed that the TSH co-expression coefficient was significantly the least (9,5±6,9%; 9,6±7,8%; 1,0±1,3% correspondingly). Conclusion Plurihormonality of normal adenohypophysis is an actually existing phenomenon. Identification of different hormones in pituitary adenomas enables to find new ways to improve both diagnostic process and targeted treatment. PMID:28418929

  7. Waste Handling Shaft concrete liner degradation conclusions and recommendations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-10-01

    The primary function of the Waste Handling Shaft (WHS) at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is to permit the transfer of radioactive waste from the surface waste handling building to the underground storage area. It also serves as an intake shaft for small volumes of air during normal storage operations and as an emergency escape route. Part of the construction was the placement of a concrete liner and steel reinforced key in 1984. During a routine shaft inspection in May 1990, some degradation of the WHS concrete liner was observed between the depths of 800 and 900 feet below the ground surface. Detailed investigations of the liner had been carried out by Sandia National Laboratories and by Westinghouse Electric Corporation Waste Isolation Division (WID) through Lankard Materials Laboratory. Observations, reports, and data support the conclusion that the concrete degradation, resulting from attack by chemically aggressive brine, is a localized phenomena. It is the opinion of the WID that the degradation is not considered an immediate or near term concern; this is supported by technical experts. WID recommendations have been made which, when implemented, will ensure an extended liner life. Based on the current assessment of available data and the proposed shaft liner monitoring program described in this report, it is reasonable to assume that the operational life of the concrete shaft liner can safely support the 25-year life of the WIPP. Analysis of data indicates that degradation of the shaft's concrete liner is attributed to chemically aggressive brine seeping through construction joints and shrinkage cracks from behind the liner in and around the 834-foot depth. Chemical and mechanical components of concrete degradation have been identified. Chemical attack is comprised of several stages of concrete alteration. The other component, mechanical degradation, results from the expansive forces of crystals forming in the concrete pore space

  8. The Danish energy crop research and development project - main conclusions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gylling, Morten

    2003-01-01

    Production of energy crops in Denmark is more or less non-existent in Denmark at the time being. However, the need for biomass on the other side of year 2005 exceeds the existing biomass resources and a substantial amount of energy crops will be necessary in order to fulfil the goals in Energy 21. The targeted share of the use of renewable energy sources by year 2030 is approximately 30%. Energy crops are seen as the most important new resource in order to create a balanced input mix of renewable in the energy system. The energy crops are mainly seen as fuel in small and medium sized CHP plants and in the big power plants. The Danish energy crop project consists of three main parts: a demonstration part, a research and development part, and an overall assessment part. Based on the results from the project the following overall conclusions can be made: Seen from a strictly market and production economic point of view energy crops will not be competitive in a foreseeable future, neither as a production for farmers nor as a fuel at the utility companies; The costs per GJ of energy crops are still higher than a GJ of straw; The cost difference between annual and perennial energy crops are slightly in favour of perennials, however the conditions on the individual farms should govern the choice between annual and perennial energy crops; Energy crops must be seen as part of an overall environmental scheme covering both agriculture and the energy sector; Given the right production scheme energy crops can be grown on environmental sensitive areas and on most ground water protection areas; Adding the potential sustainability benefits like reduced nutrient leakage and reduced CO 2 emissions energy crops seem to be a sensible and sustainable solution; Due to different handling, storage and fuel characteristics an all year delivery scheme of energy crops should include a mix of different energy crops to keep overall cost down. (BA)

  9. Probabilistic learning and inference in schizophrenia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Averbeck, Bruno B.; Evans, Simon; Chouhan, Viraj; Bristow, Eleanor; Shergill, Sukhwinder S.

    2010-01-01

    Patients with schizophrenia make decisions on the basis of less evidence when required to collect information to make an inference, a behavior often called jumping to conclusions. The underlying basis for this behaviour remains controversial. We examined the cognitive processes underpinning this finding by testing subjects on the beads task, which has been used previously to elicit jumping to conclusions behaviour, and a stochastic sequence learning task, with a similar decision theoretic structure. During the sequence learning task, subjects had to learn a sequence of button presses, while receiving noisy feedback on their choices. We fit a Bayesian decision making model to the sequence task and compared model parameters to the choice behavior in the beads task in both patients and healthy subjects. We found that patients did show a jumping to conclusions style; and those who picked early in the beads task tended to learn less from positive feedback in the sequence task. This favours the likelihood of patients selecting early because they have a low threshold for making decisions, and that they make choices on the basis of relatively little evidence. PMID:20810252

  10. Probabilistic learning and inference in schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Averbeck, Bruno B; Evans, Simon; Chouhan, Viraj; Bristow, Eleanor; Shergill, Sukhwinder S

    2011-04-01

    Patients with schizophrenia make decisions on the basis of less evidence when required to collect information to make an inference, a behavior often called jumping to conclusions. The underlying basis for this behavior remains controversial. We examined the cognitive processes underpinning this finding by testing subjects on the beads task, which has been used previously to elicit jumping to conclusions behavior, and a stochastic sequence learning task, with a similar decision theoretic structure. During the sequence learning task, subjects had to learn a sequence of button presses, while receiving a noisy feedback on their choices. We fit a Bayesian decision making model to the sequence task and compared model parameters to the choice behavior in the beads task in both patients and healthy subjects. We found that patients did show a jumping to conclusions style; and those who picked early in the beads task tended to learn less from positive feedback in the sequence task. This favours the likelihood of patients selecting early because they have a low threshold for making decisions, and that they make choices on the basis of relatively little evidence. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  11. Russia's defense spending and the economic decline

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susanne Oxenstierna

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to explore the development of Russian military spending in light of weak and negative growth of the Russian economy and to look at the reasons for the economic decline that has developed after the economic crisis in 2009 and is due to long-term internal structural factors that have existed since the mid-2000s. The confidence crisis resulting from Russia's aggression against Ukraine 2014, Western sanctions and falling oil prices has further aggravated these tendencies and the economy is now contracting. The main conclusions are that the share of the defense budget in GDP has risen substantially, but there is still a trade-off between defense and other public spending in the budget. Political reform would be necessary to implement market institutions and revive the economy.

  12. Ballistic Missile Defense in Europe

    OpenAIRE

    Sarihan, Ali; Bush, Amy; Summers, Lawrence; Thompson, Brent; Tomasszewski, Steven

    2009-01-01

    This paper will build on ballistic missile defense in Europe. In the first part, a brief historical overview will place the current public management issue into light. This is followed by a discussion of the main actors in the international debate, the problems that arise and the available options and recommendations to address missile defense. In the second part, differences between George W. Bush and Barack H. Obama will analyze under the title “Ballistic Missile Defense in Europe: Evolving...

  13. Variations on Bayesian Prediction and Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-05-09

    inference 2.2.1 Background There are a number of statistical inference problems that are not generally formulated via a full probability model...problem of inference about an unknown parameter, the Bayesian approach requires a full probability 1. REPORT DATE (DD-MM-YYYY) 4. TITLE AND...the problem of inference about an unknown parameter, the Bayesian approach requires a full probability model/likelihood which can be an obstacle

  14. Adaptive Inference on General Graphical Models

    OpenAIRE

    Acar, Umut A.; Ihler, Alexander T.; Mettu, Ramgopal; Sumer, Ozgur

    2012-01-01

    Many algorithms and applications involve repeatedly solving variations of the same inference problem; for example we may want to introduce new evidence to the model or perform updates to conditional dependencies. The goal of adaptive inference is to take advantage of what is preserved in the model and perform inference more rapidly than from scratch. In this paper, we describe techniques for adaptive inference on general graphs that support marginal computation and updates to the conditional ...

  15. Defense Programs and Budget Risk

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Troutman, Mark D

    2006-01-01

    .... Therefore the Defense Department has set before itself a requirement to modernize a large conventional force structure engaged in ongoing combat operations while simultaneously developing deeper...

  16. Implementation of severe accident management measures - Summary and conclusions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    implemented in various ways in many plants, but not yet in all plants. A systematic approach, which is based upon a clearly defined decision-making process, is one of the features implemented in many cases. Available means are determined and priorities are set. This approach is made up of strategies intended to become an optimum approach to prevent or mitigate the consequences of beyond-design basis accidents. It is based upon a prepared information package about plant-specific behaviour to be expected in beyond design scenarios. The approaches followed in the different countries do not fit one single pattern. Harmonization, to the extent it is desirable, does not seem feasible at this stage. As a rule, the responsibility of the plant owner for the safety of his plant remains untouched. Also, safety goals may vary between countries. This report presents the general conclusion and recommendations of the workshop and the summaries of the sessions

  17. CSNI/NEA Rasplav seminar 2000. Summary and conclusions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    various boundary conditions were investigated. The work involved a combination of integral and separate effect tests including molten-salt tests to investigate non-eutectic mixtures and the effects of stratification, extension of the material property database to allow interpretation and modelling of the experimental data. The CSNI decided to hold a seminar where the major outcome of the RASPLAV Project could be presented and discussed also in the context of other experienced activities on Severe Accidents. The objectives of the seminar are: - to review the experimental results of the RASPLAV Project; - to exchange information on complementary research; - to discuss the progress made on understanding severe accident progression; - to discuss the applicability to nuclear power plants and use of the results. The Seminar was intended to provide an in-depth review of the RASPLAV Project in terms of the technical capabilities, results and analyses produced during the project execution. The application of the results and their significance for power plant applications were addressed. Relevant results of the complementary research carried out at various laboratories were also presented. The seminar consisted of five sessions organised as follows: - Opening and overview; - Experimental results; - Theoretical Analyses; - Application and complementary research; - Conclusion

  18. Cosmological Gamma-Ray Bursts and Hypernovae Conclusively Linked

    Science.gov (United States)

    2003-06-01

    Clearest-Ever Evidence from VLT Spectra of Powerful Event Summary A very bright burst of gamma-rays was observed on March 29, 2003 by NASA's High Energy Transient Explorer (HETE-II) , in a sky region within the constellation Leo. Within 90 min, a new, very bright light source (the "optical afterglow") was detected in the same direction by means of a 40-inch telescope at the Siding Spring Observatory (Australia) and also in Japan. The gamma-ray burst was designated GRB 030329 , according to the date. And within 24 hours, a first, very detailed spectrum of this new object was obtained by the UVES high-dispersion spectrograph on the 8.2-m VLT KUEYEN telescope at the ESO Paranal Observatory (Chile). It allowed to determine the distance as about 2,650 million light-years (redshift 0.1685). Continued observations with the FORS1 and FORS2 multi-mode instruments on the VLT during the following month allowed an international team of astronomers [1] to document in unprecedented detail the changes in the spectrum of the optical afterglow of this gamma-ray burst . Their detailed report appears in the June 19 issue of the research journal "Nature". The spectra show the gradual and clear emergence of a supernova spectrum of the most energetic class known, a "hypernova" . This is caused by the explosion of a very heavy star - presumably over 25 times heavier than the Sun. The measured expansion velocity (in excess of 30,000 km/sec) and the total energy released were exceptionally high, even within the elect hypernova class. From a comparison with more nearby hypernovae, the astronomers are able to fix with good accuracy the moment of the stellar explosion. It turns out to be within an interval of plus/minus two days of the gamma-ray burst. This unique conclusion provides compelling evidence that the two events are directly connected. These observations therefore indicate a common physical process behind the hypernova explosion and the associated emission of strong gamma

  19. CSNI/NEA Rasplav seminar 2000. Summary and conclusions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2001-01-15

    various boundary conditions were investigated. The work involved a combination of integral and separate effect tests including molten-salt tests to investigate non-eutectic mixtures and the effects of stratification, extension of the material property database to allow interpretation and modelling of the experimental data. The CSNI decided to hold a seminar where the major outcome of the RASPLAV Project could be presented and discussed also in the context of other experienced activities on Severe Accidents. The objectives of the seminar are: - to review the experimental results of the RASPLAV Project; - to exchange information on complementary research; - to discuss the progress made on understanding severe accident progression; - to discuss the applicability to nuclear power plants and use of the results. The Seminar was intended to provide an in-depth review of the RASPLAV Project in terms of the technical capabilities, results and analyses produced during the project execution. The application of the results and their significance for power plant applications were addressed. Relevant results of the complementary research carried out at various laboratories were also presented. The seminar consisted of five sessions organised as follows: - Opening and overview; - Experimental results; - Theoretical Analyses; - Application and complementary research; - Conclusion.

  20. Defense.gov Special Report: Defense Officials Release Operational Energy

    Science.gov (United States)

    , DOD Operational Energy Strategy DOD's Operational Energy Strategy will guide the Defense Department to operations are among the goals of the Defense Department's operational energy strategy, a senior Pentagon operational energy footprint, experts in solar power, microgrids and "smart" generators recently

  1. Induction of defensive enzymes (isozymes) during defense against ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    2012-09-06

    Sep 6, 2012 ... defense against two different fungal pathogens in pear calli ... study the biochemical changes in relation to plant defense ... relatively easy to manipulate by empirical means, allowing for a ... earlier phase, and the degree of rot was significantly ..... resistance of fruit, and they play an important role in the.

  2. Medical irradiation of children. Beware of too fast conclusion; Irradiation medicale de l'enfant. Attention aux conclusions hatives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brisse, H. [Institut Curie, Dept. d' Imagerie, 75 - Paris (France); Sirinelli, D. [Hopital Clocheville, Service de Radiologie et Echographie, 37 - Tours (France); Adamsbaum, C. [Hopital Saint-Vincent-de-Paul, Service de Radiologie, 75 - Paris (France); Chateil, J.F. [Hopital Pellegrin, Unite de Radiopediatrie, 33 - Bordeaux (France); Claudon, M. [Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Nancy-Hopital Brabois Enfants, Service de Radiologie, 54 - Vandoeuvre-les-Nancy (France); Geoffray, A. [Fondation Lenval, Service de Radiologie, 06 - Nice (France); Petit, P. [Hopital de la Timone, Service de Radiologie, 13 - Marseille (France); Rausin, L. [Centre Hospitalier Regional de la Citadelle, Service de Radiologie, Liege (Belgium); Panuel, M. [Hopital Nord, Service de Radiologie, 13 - Marseille (France)

    2004-10-01

    The publication in january 2004 in the British medical journal of the article of P. Hall and coll. 'Effect of low doses of ionizing irradiation in infancy on cognitive function in adulthood: Swedish population based cohort study, has been noticed by the Radiation protection group of the French speaking society of pediatrics imaging. The authors evaluate the psycho-motor development of less eighteen months years old children and irradiated between 1930 and 1959 for a face angioma. They study for each dose of irradiation ( from 0 to 250 m Gy) the level of school attendance and their results to the psycho-motor tests made during conscription medical examination. They noticed a diminution of 50% of the access success rate to university for the children having received an irradiation dose of 250 mG. No effect is noticed under the irradiation dose of 100 mGy. In their conclusions the authors compare these irradiation doses to these ones delivered in brain scanner examination. These results seem overestimated compared with the work made on fetuses ( publication 84 of ICRP) then the fetus is considered as more sensitive to ionizing radiations than the infant. The dose of 120 mGy is found in the literature and now the dose delivered in pediatrics are in the area of 0 and 100 mGy where no effect has been revealed in the cohort of irradiated children. The article does not include the principle of justification that is used nowadays and the replacement by the trans fontanel echography has allowed to reduce the number of brain scanner, used only for limited cases where the benefit is superior the the risk of irradiation. (N.C.)

  3. Antipredator defenses predict diversification rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arbuckle, Kevin; Speed, Michael P.

    2015-01-01

    The “escape-and-radiate” hypothesis predicts that antipredator defenses facilitate adaptive radiations by enabling escape from constraints of predation, diversified habitat use, and subsequently speciation. Animals have evolved diverse strategies to reduce the direct costs of predation, including cryptic coloration and behavior, chemical defenses, mimicry, and advertisement of unprofitability (conspicuous warning coloration). Whereas the survival consequences of these alternative defenses for individuals are well-studied, little attention has been given to the macroevolutionary consequences of alternative forms of defense. Here we show, using amphibians as the first, to our knowledge, large-scale empirical test in animals, that there are important macroevolutionary consequences of alternative defenses. However, the escape-and-radiate hypothesis does not adequately describe them, due to its exclusive focus on speciation. We examined how rates of speciation and extinction vary across defensive traits throughout amphibians. Lineages that use chemical defenses show higher rates of speciation as predicted by escape-and-radiate but also show higher rates of extinction compared with those without chemical defense. The effect of chemical defense is a net reduction in diversification compared with lineages without chemical defense. In contrast, acquisition of conspicuous coloration (often used as warning signals or in mimicry) is associated with heightened speciation rates but unchanged extinction rates. We conclude that predictions based on the escape-and-radiate hypothesis must incorporate the effect of traits on both speciation and extinction, which is rarely considered in such studies. Our results also suggest that knowledge of defensive traits could have a bearing on the predictability of extinction, perhaps especially important in globally threatened taxa such as amphibians. PMID:26483488

  4. The Alaska earthquake, March 27, 1964: lessons and conclusions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eckel, Edwin B.

    1970-01-01

    local waves. Better earthquake-hazard maps, based on improved knowledge of regional geology, fault behavior, and earthquake mechanisms, are needed for the entire country. Their preparation will require the close collaboration of engineers, seismologists, and geologists. Geologic maps of all inhabited places in earthquake-prone parts of the country are also needed by city planners and others, because the direct relationship between local geology and potential earthquake damage is now well understood. Improved and enlarged nets of earthquake-sensing instruments, sited in relation to known geology, are needed, as are many more geodetic and hydrographic measurements. Every large earthquake, wherever located, should be regarded as a full-scale laboratory experiment whose study can give scientific and engineering information unobtainable from any other source. Plans must be made before the event to insure staffing, funding, and coordination of effort for the scientific and engineering study of future earthquakes. Advice of earth scientists and engineers should be used in the decision-making processes involved in reconstruction after any future disastrous earthquake, as was done after the Alaska earthquake. The volume closes with a selected bibliography and a comprehensive index to the entire series of U.S. Geological Survey Professional Papers 541-546. This is the last in a series of six reports that the U.S. Geological Survey published on the results of a comprehensive geologic study that began, as a reconnaissance survey, within 24 hours after the March 27, 1964, Magnitude 9.2 Great Alaska Earthquake and extended, as detailed investigations, through several field seasons. The 1964 Great Alaska earthquake was the largest earthquake in the U.S. since 1700. Professional Paper 546, in 1 part, describes Lessons and Conclusions.

  5. More than one kind of inference: re-examining what's learned in feature inference and classification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sweller, Naomi; Hayes, Brett K

    2010-08-01

    Three studies examined how task demands that impact on attention to typical or atypical category features shape the category representations formed through classification learning and inference learning. During training categories were learned via exemplar classification or by inferring missing exemplar features. In the latter condition inferences were made about missing typical features alone (typical feature inference) or about both missing typical and atypical features (mixed feature inference). Classification and mixed feature inference led to the incorporation of typical and atypical features into category representations, with both kinds of features influencing inferences about familiar (Experiments 1 and 2) and novel (Experiment 3) test items. Those in the typical inference condition focused primarily on typical features. Together with formal modelling, these results challenge previous accounts that have characterized inference learning as producing a focus on typical category features. The results show that two different kinds of inference learning are possible and that these are subserved by different kinds of category representations.

  6. Generative inference for cultural evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kandler, Anne; Powell, Adam

    2018-04-05

    One of the major challenges in cultural evolution is to understand why and how various forms of social learning are used in human populations, both now and in the past. To date, much of the theoretical work on social learning has been done in isolation of data, and consequently many insights focus on revealing the learning processes or the distributions of cultural variants that are expected to have evolved in human populations. In population genetics, recent methodological advances have allowed a greater understanding of the explicit demographic and/or selection mechanisms that underlie observed allele frequency distributions across the globe, and their change through time. In particular, generative frameworks-often using coalescent-based simulation coupled with approximate Bayesian computation (ABC)-have provided robust inferences on the human past, with no reliance on a priori assumptions of equilibrium. Here, we demonstrate the applicability and utility of generative inference approaches to the field of cultural evolution. The framework advocated here uses observed population-level frequency data directly to establish the likely presence or absence of particular hypothesized learning strategies. In this context, we discuss the problem of equifinality and argue that, in the light of sparse cultural data and the multiplicity of possible social learning processes, the exclusion of those processes inconsistent with the observed data might be the most instructive outcome. Finally, we summarize the findings of generative inference approaches applied to a number of case studies.This article is part of the theme issue 'Bridging cultural gaps: interdisciplinary studies in human cultural evolution'. © 2018 The Author(s).

  7. sick: The Spectroscopic Inference Crank

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casey, Andrew R.

    2016-03-01

    There exists an inordinate amount of spectral data in both public and private astronomical archives that remain severely under-utilized. The lack of reliable open-source tools for analyzing large volumes of spectra contributes to this situation, which is poised to worsen as large surveys successively release orders of magnitude more spectra. In this article I introduce sick, the spectroscopic inference crank, a flexible and fast Bayesian tool for inferring astrophysical parameters from spectra. sick is agnostic to the wavelength coverage, resolving power, or general data format, allowing any user to easily construct a generative model for their data, regardless of its source. sick can be used to provide a nearest-neighbor estimate of model parameters, a numerically optimized point estimate, or full Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling of the posterior probability distributions. This generality empowers any astronomer to capitalize on the plethora of published synthetic and observed spectra, and make precise inferences for a host of astrophysical (and nuisance) quantities. Model intensities can be reliably approximated from existing grids of synthetic or observed spectra using linear multi-dimensional interpolation, or a Cannon-based model. Additional phenomena that transform the data (e.g., redshift, rotational broadening, continuum, spectral resolution) are incorporated as free parameters and can be marginalized away. Outlier pixels (e.g., cosmic rays or poorly modeled regimes) can be treated with a Gaussian mixture model, and a noise model is included to account for systematically underestimated variance. Combining these phenomena into a scalar-justified, quantitative model permits precise inferences with credible uncertainties on noisy data. I describe the common model features, the implementation details, and the default behavior, which is balanced to be suitable for most astronomical applications. Using a forward model on low-resolution, high signal

  8. Inferring network structure from cascades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghonge, Sushrut; Vural, Dervis Can

    2017-07-01

    Many physical, biological, and social phenomena can be described by cascades taking place on a network. Often, the activity can be empirically observed, but not the underlying network of interactions. In this paper we offer three topological methods to infer the structure of any directed network given a set of cascade arrival times. Our formulas hold for a very general class of models where the activation probability of a node is a generic function of its degree and the number of its active neighbors. We report high success rates for synthetic and real networks, for several different cascade models.

  9. SICK: THE SPECTROSCOPIC INFERENCE CRANK

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Casey, Andrew R., E-mail: arc@ast.cam.ac.uk [Institute of Astronomy, University of Cambridge, Madingley Road, Cambdridge, CB3 0HA (United Kingdom)

    2016-03-15

    There exists an inordinate amount of spectral data in both public and private astronomical archives that remain severely under-utilized. The lack of reliable open-source tools for analyzing large volumes of spectra contributes to this situation, which is poised to worsen as large surveys successively release orders of magnitude more spectra. In this article I introduce sick, the spectroscopic inference crank, a flexible and fast Bayesian tool for inferring astrophysical parameters from spectra. sick is agnostic to the wavelength coverage, resolving power, or general data format, allowing any user to easily construct a generative model for their data, regardless of its source. sick can be used to provide a nearest-neighbor estimate of model parameters, a numerically optimized point estimate, or full Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling of the posterior probability distributions. This generality empowers any astronomer to capitalize on the plethora of published synthetic and observed spectra, and make precise inferences for a host of astrophysical (and nuisance) quantities. Model intensities can be reliably approximated from existing grids of synthetic or observed spectra using linear multi-dimensional interpolation, or a Cannon-based model. Additional phenomena that transform the data (e.g., redshift, rotational broadening, continuum, spectral resolution) are incorporated as free parameters and can be marginalized away. Outlier pixels (e.g., cosmic rays or poorly modeled regimes) can be treated with a Gaussian mixture model, and a noise model is included to account for systematically underestimated variance. Combining these phenomena into a scalar-justified, quantitative model permits precise inferences with credible uncertainties on noisy data. I describe the common model features, the implementation details, and the default behavior, which is balanced to be suitable for most astronomical applications. Using a forward model on low-resolution, high signal

  10. Bayesian inference for Hawkes processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Jakob Gulddahl

    The Hawkes process is a practically and theoretically important class of point processes, but parameter-estimation for such a process can pose various problems. In this paper we explore and compare two approaches to Bayesian inference. The first approach is based on the so-called conditional...... intensity function, while the second approach is based on an underlying clustering and branching structure in the Hawkes process. For practical use, MCMC (Markov chain Monte Carlo) methods are employed. The two approaches are compared numerically using three examples of the Hawkes process....

  11. Bayesian inference for Hawkes processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Jakob Gulddahl

    2013-01-01

    The Hawkes process is a practically and theoretically important class of point processes, but parameter-estimation for such a process can pose various problems. In this paper we explore and compare two approaches to Bayesian inference. The first approach is based on the so-called conditional...... intensity function, while the second approach is based on an underlying clustering and branching structure in the Hawkes process. For practical use, MCMC (Markov chain Monte Carlo) methods are employed. The two approaches are compared numerically using three examples of the Hawkes process....

  12. Inference in hybrid Bayesian networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Langseth, Helge; Nielsen, Thomas D.; Rumi, Rafael; Salmeron, Antonio

    2009-01-01

    Since the 1980s, Bayesian networks (BNs) have become increasingly popular for building statistical models of complex systems. This is particularly true for boolean systems, where BNs often prove to be a more efficient modelling framework than traditional reliability techniques (like fault trees and reliability block diagrams). However, limitations in the BNs' calculation engine have prevented BNs from becoming equally popular for domains containing mixtures of both discrete and continuous variables (the so-called hybrid domains). In this paper we focus on these difficulties, and summarize some of the last decade's research on inference in hybrid Bayesian networks. The discussions are linked to an example model for estimating human reliability.

  13. SICK: THE SPECTROSCOPIC INFERENCE CRANK

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Casey, Andrew R.

    2016-01-01

    There exists an inordinate amount of spectral data in both public and private astronomical archives that remain severely under-utilized. The lack of reliable open-source tools for analyzing large volumes of spectra contributes to this situation, which is poised to worsen as large surveys successively release orders of magnitude more spectra. In this article I introduce sick, the spectroscopic inference crank, a flexible and fast Bayesian tool for inferring astrophysical parameters from spectra. sick is agnostic to the wavelength coverage, resolving power, or general data format, allowing any user to easily construct a generative model for their data, regardless of its source. sick can be used to provide a nearest-neighbor estimate of model parameters, a numerically optimized point estimate, or full Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling of the posterior probability distributions. This generality empowers any astronomer to capitalize on the plethora of published synthetic and observed spectra, and make precise inferences for a host of astrophysical (and nuisance) quantities. Model intensities can be reliably approximated from existing grids of synthetic or observed spectra using linear multi-dimensional interpolation, or a Cannon-based model. Additional phenomena that transform the data (e.g., redshift, rotational broadening, continuum, spectral resolution) are incorporated as free parameters and can be marginalized away. Outlier pixels (e.g., cosmic rays or poorly modeled regimes) can be treated with a Gaussian mixture model, and a noise model is included to account for systematically underestimated variance. Combining these phenomena into a scalar-justified, quantitative model permits precise inferences with credible uncertainties on noisy data. I describe the common model features, the implementation details, and the default behavior, which is balanced to be suitable for most astronomical applications. Using a forward model on low-resolution, high signal

  14. Defense Reutilization and Marketing Manual

    Science.gov (United States)

    1990-03-01

    H -3 E Responsibilities of Defense Reutilization and Marketing Regions (D R M s...at Defense electronic products which produce radiation Reutilization and Marketing Offices, para- when energized. Among the principal radi- graph F... Sporting Equipment 7820 Games , Toys, and Wheeled Goods 7830 Recreational and Gymnastic Equipment 7910 Floor Polishers and Vacuum Cleaning Equipment

  15. Defense Acquisitions Acronyms and Terms

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-12-01

    DR Decision Review DRMO Defense Reutilization Marketing Office DRPM Direct Reporting Program Manager DSAA Defense Security Assistance Agency...STE Special Test Equipment STEP Simulation, Test, and Evaluation Process STLDD Software Top Level Design Document STP Software Test Plan STPR...established catalog or market prices for specific tasks under standard commercial terms and conditions; this does not include services sold based

  16. Summary and conclusions of the specialist meeting on severe accident management programme development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    The CSNI Specialist meeting on severe accident management programme development was held in Rome and about seventy experts from thirteen countries attended the meeting. A total of 27 papers were presented in four sessions, covering specific aspects of accident management programme development. It purposely focused on the programmatic aspects of accident management rather than on some of the more complex technical issues associated with accident management strategies. Some of the major observations and conclusions from the meeting are that severe accident management is the ultimate part of the defense in depth concept within the plant. It is function and success oriented, not event oriented, as the aim is to prevent or minimize consequences of severe accidents. There is no guarantee it will always be successful but experts agree that it can reduce the risks significantly. It has to be exercised and the importance of emergency drills has been underlined. The basic structure and major elements of accident management programmes appear to be similar among OECD member countries. Dealing with significant phenomenological uncertainties in establishing accident management programmes continues to be an important issue, especially in confirming the appropriateness of specific accident management strategies

  17. Subjective randomness as statistical inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffiths, Thomas L; Daniels, Dylan; Austerweil, Joseph L; Tenenbaum, Joshua B

    2018-06-01

    Some events seem more random than others. For example, when tossing a coin, a sequence of eight heads in a row does not seem very random. Where do these intuitions about randomness come from? We argue that subjective randomness can be understood as the result of a statistical inference assessing the evidence that an event provides for having been produced by a random generating process. We show how this account provides a link to previous work relating randomness to algorithmic complexity, in which random events are those that cannot be described by short computer programs. Algorithmic complexity is both incomputable and too general to capture the regularities that people can recognize, but viewing randomness as statistical inference provides two paths to addressing these problems: considering regularities generated by simpler computing machines, and restricting the set of probability distributions that characterize regularity. Building on previous work exploring these different routes to a more restricted notion of randomness, we define strong quantitative models of human randomness judgments that apply not just to binary sequences - which have been the focus of much of the previous work on subjective randomness - but also to binary matrices and spatial clustering. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. 5. Conclusion

    OpenAIRE

    Beerli, Monique Jo

    2013-01-01

    Attracted by conflict and war, starvation and disease, natural disasters and underdevelopment, discrimination and injustice, solidarity organizations and their supporters engage themselves in struggles for the acquisition of benefits that they themselves will not receive. In the absence of political solutions addressing the demands of a given people, non-state actors are capable of appropriating functions and responsibilities upon themselves which the state is unwilling or unable to perform. ...

  19. Conclusion conference

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tubiana, M.

    1997-01-01

    Radioactive isotopes are the basis of spectacular advancements in biology, but also in medicine, not only indirectly with progress in disease and human body understanding, but also directly through nuclear medicine and radiotherapy. The important role of the Cea in the development of French radiotherapy, dosimetry and radioactive isotopes (especially cobalt) is reviewed

  20. 77 FR 30368 - Defense Federal Acquisition Regulation Supplement; Utilization of Domestic Photovoltaic Devices...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-22

    ... arrangement, the Government would take title to the devices during contract performance or at the conclusion... rule will promote utilization of domestic photovoltaic devices, even when the Government does not take... Devices (DFARS Case 2011-D046) AGENCY: Defense Acquisition Regulations System, Department of Defense (DoD...

  1. 75 FR 26739 - Information Collection Requirement; Defense Federal Acquisition Regulation Supplement; Part 244...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-05-12

    ... Control Number 0704-0253) AGENCY: Defense Acquisition Regulations System, Department of Defense. ACTION... proposed information collection; (c) ways to enhance the quality, utility, and clarity of the information..., withhold, or withdraw purchasing system approval at the conclusion of a purchasing system review...

  2. 78 FR 70025 - Information Collection Requirement; Defense Federal Acquisition Regulation Supplement...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-11-22

    ... and Procedures AGENCY: Defense Acquisition Regulations System, Department of Defense (DoD). ACTION... proposed information collection; (c) ways to enhance the quality, utility, and clarity of the information..., withhold, or withdraw purchasing system approval at the conclusion of a purchasing system review...

  3. Defense Agencies Cash Management in the Defense Business Operations Fund

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lane, F

    1997-01-01

    The primary audit objective was to determine whether the Fund Balance With Treasury Account on the Consolidated Financial Statements of the Defense Business Operations Fund for FY 1996 was presented...

  4. Inferring the conservative causal core of gene regulatory networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emmert-Streib Frank

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Inferring gene regulatory networks from large-scale expression data is an important problem that received much attention in recent years. These networks have the potential to gain insights into causal molecular interactions of biological processes. Hence, from a methodological point of view, reliable estimation methods based on observational data are needed to approach this problem practically. Results In this paper, we introduce a novel gene regulatory network inference (GRNI algorithm, called C3NET. We compare C3NET with four well known methods, ARACNE, CLR, MRNET and RN, conducting in-depth numerical ensemble simulations and demonstrate also for biological expression data from E. coli that C3NET performs consistently better than the best known GRNI methods in the literature. In addition, it has also a low computational complexity. Since C3NET is based on estimates of mutual information values in conjunction with a maximization step, our numerical investigations demonstrate that our inference algorithm exploits causal structural information in the data efficiently. Conclusions For systems biology to succeed in the long run, it is of crucial importance to establish methods that extract large-scale gene networks from high-throughput data that reflect the underlying causal interactions among genes or gene products. Our method can contribute to this endeavor by demonstrating that an inference algorithm with a neat design permits not only a more intuitive and possibly biological interpretation of its working mechanism but can also result in superior results.

  5. Lower complexity bounds for lifted inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jaeger, Manfred

    2015-01-01

    instances of the model. Numerous approaches for such “lifted inference” techniques have been proposed. While it has been demonstrated that these techniques will lead to significantly more efficient inference on some specific models, there are only very recent and still quite restricted results that show...... the feasibility of lifted inference on certain syntactically defined classes of models. Lower complexity bounds that imply some limitations for the feasibility of lifted inference on more expressive model classes were established earlier in Jaeger (2000; Jaeger, M. 2000. On the complexity of inference about...... that under the assumption that NETIME≠ETIME, there is no polynomial lifted inference algorithm for knowledge bases of weighted, quantifier-, and function-free formulas. Further strengthening earlier results, this is also shown to hold for approximate inference and for knowledge bases not containing...

  6. Statistical inference for financial engineering

    CERN Document Server

    Taniguchi, Masanobu; Ogata, Hiroaki; Taniai, Hiroyuki

    2014-01-01

    This monograph provides the fundamentals of statistical inference for financial engineering and covers some selected methods suitable for analyzing financial time series data. In order to describe the actual financial data, various stochastic processes, e.g. non-Gaussian linear processes, non-linear processes, long-memory processes, locally stationary processes etc. are introduced and their optimal estimation is considered as well. This book also includes several statistical approaches, e.g., discriminant analysis, the empirical likelihood method, control variate method, quantile regression, realized volatility etc., which have been recently developed and are considered to be powerful tools for analyzing the financial data, establishing a new bridge between time series and financial engineering. This book is well suited as a professional reference book on finance, statistics and statistical financial engineering. Readers are expected to have an undergraduate-level knowledge of statistics.

  7. Type inference for correspondence types

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hüttel, Hans; Gordon, Andy; Hansen, Rene Rydhof

    2009-01-01

    We present a correspondence type/effect system for authenticity in a π-calculus with polarized channels, dependent pair types and effect terms and show how one may, given a process P and an a priori type environment E, generate constraints that are formulae in the Alternating Least Fixed......-Point (ALFP) logic. We then show how a reasonable model of the generated constraints yields a type/effect assignment such that P becomes well-typed with respect to E if and only if this is possible. The formulae generated satisfy a finite model property; a system of constraints is satisfiable if and only...... if it has a finite model. As a consequence, we obtain the result that type/effect inference in our system is polynomial-time decidable....

  8. Causal inference in public health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glass, Thomas A; Goodman, Steven N; Hernán, Miguel A; Samet, Jonathan M

    2013-01-01

    Causal inference has a central role in public health; the determination that an association is causal indicates the possibility for intervention. We review and comment on the long-used guidelines for interpreting evidence as supporting a causal association and contrast them with the potential outcomes framework that encourages thinking in terms of causes that are interventions. We argue that in public health this framework is more suitable, providing an estimate of an action's consequences rather than the less precise notion of a risk factor's causal effect. A variety of modern statistical methods adopt this approach. When an intervention cannot be specified, causal relations can still exist, but how to intervene to change the outcome will be unclear. In application, the often-complex structure of causal processes needs to be acknowledged and appropriate data collected to study them. These newer approaches need to be brought to bear on the increasingly complex public health challenges of our globalized world.

  9. Inference Attacks and Control on Database Structures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhamed Turkanovic

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Today’s databases store information with sensitivity levels that range from public to highly sensitive, hence ensuring confidentiality can be highly important, but also requires costly control. This paper focuses on the inference problem on different database structures. It presents possible treats on privacy with relation to the inference, and control methods for mitigating these treats. The paper shows that using only access control, without any inference control is inadequate, since these models are unable to protect against indirect data access. Furthermore, it covers new inference problems which rise from the dimensions of new technologies like XML, semantics, etc.

  10. Reconciling taxonomy and phylogenetic inference: formalism and algorithms for describing discord and inferring taxonomic roots

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matsen Frederick A

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Although taxonomy is often used informally to evaluate the results of phylogenetic inference and the root of phylogenetic trees, algorithmic methods to do so are lacking. Results In this paper we formalize these procedures and develop algorithms to solve the relevant problems. In particular, we introduce a new algorithm that solves a "subcoloring" problem to express the difference between a taxonomy and a phylogeny at a given rank. This algorithm improves upon the current best algorithm in terms of asymptotic complexity for the parameter regime of interest; we also describe a branch-and-bound algorithm that saves orders of magnitude in computation on real data sets. We also develop a formalism and an algorithm for rooting phylogenetic trees according to a taxonomy. Conclusions The algorithms in this paper, and the associated freely-available software, will help biologists better use and understand taxonomically labeled phylogenetic trees.

  11. Japan and Ballistic Missile Defense

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Swaine, Michael

    2001-01-01

    Spurred by a perceived growing ballistic missile threat from within the Asia-Pacific region and requests from the United States to support research and development on components of a missile defense...

  12. Proactive Self Defense in Cyberspace

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Caulkins, Bruce D

    2009-01-01

    ... and standards to properly secure and defend the Global Information Grid (GIG) from cyber attacks. This paper will discuss the strategic requirements for enacting a proactive self-defense mechanism in cyberspace...

  13. Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites collect visible and infrared cloud imagery as well as monitoring the atmospheric, oceanographic,...

  14. Strategic Missile Defense & Nuclear Deterrence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grego, Laura

    The United States has pursued defenses against nuclear-armed long-range ballistic missiles since at least the 1950s. At the same time, concerns that missile defenses could undermine nuclear deterrence and potentially spark an arms race led the United States and Soviet Union to negotiate limits on these systems. The 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty constrained strategic missile defenses for thirty years. After abandoning the treaty in 2002, President George W. Bush began fielding the Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) homeland missile defense system on an extremely aggressive schedule, nominally to respond to threats from North Korea and Iran. Today, nearly fifteen years after its initial deployment, the potential and the limits of this homeland missile defense are apparent. Its test record is poor and it has no demonstrated ability to stop an incoming missile under real-world conditions. No credible strategy is in place to solve the issue of discriminating countermeasures. Insufficient oversight has not only exacerbated the GMD system's problems, but has obscured their full extent, which could encourage politicians and military leaders to make decisions that actually increase the risk of a missile attack against the United States. These are not the only costs. Both Russia and China have repeatedly expressed concerns that U.S. missile defenses adversely affect their own strategic capabilities and interests, particularly taken in light of the substantial US nuclear forces. This in turn affects these countries' nuclear modernization priorities. This talk will provide a technical overview of the US strategic missile defense system, and how it relates to deterrence against non-peer adversaries as well as how it affects deterrence with Russia and China and the long-term prospects for nuclear reductions

  15. Tactile defensiveness and stereotyped behaviors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baranek, G T; Foster, L G; Berkson, G

    1997-02-01

    This study explores the constructs of stereotyped behaviors (e.g., repetitive motor patterns, object manipulations, behavioral rigidities) and tactile defensiveness as relevant to occupational therapy theory and practice and attempts to test their purported relationships in children with developmental disabilities. Twenty-eight children with developmental disabilities and autism were assessed on eight factors of stereotyped behavior via a questionnaire and by four measures of tactile defensiveness. The subjects' scores from the questionnaire were correlated with their scores on the tactile defensiveness measures to see what, if any, relationship among these behaviors exists. Significant relationships emerged from the data, indicating that subjects with higher levels of tactile defensiveness were also more likely to evidence rigid or inflexible behaviors, repetitive verbalizations, visual stereotypes, and abnormal focused affections that are often associated with autism. No significant association was found between motor and object stereotypes and tactile defensiveness. These relationships could not be explained solely by maturational factors. The results suggest that clinicians should include observations of stereotyped behaviors, particularly behavioral rigidities, in conjunction with assessments of sensory defensiveness because these are related phenomena that may pose unique challenges for children with developmental disabilities and autism. Further study is needed to determine the causal mechanisms responsible for these relationships.

  16. Acquisition Planning at the Defense Communications Agency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1984-04-01

    guidelines for interaction are developed under the leadership of DCA agencywide integrators with the participation of personnel from DCA, the Services...Communications System DCSO - Defense Communications System Organizatin . DDN - Defense Data Network DEC - Decision Making DG - Defense Guidance DIA - Defense

  17. Commercial Methodologies for Acquiring Consulting Services: Can Department of Defense Contracting Activities Follow Suit?

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Clarke, Will

    2001-01-01

    .... The objective of this thesis is to ascertain the best pre-award commercial practices for acquiring CS and draw conclusions and make recommendations for employing these proven methods in future Department of Defense (DoD) procurements...

  18. Information-Theoretic Inference of Common Ancestors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bastian Steudel

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available A directed acyclic graph (DAG partially represents the conditional independence structure among observations of a system if the local Markov condition holds, that is if every variable is independent of its non-descendants given its parents. In general, there is a whole class of DAGs that represents a given set of conditional independence relations. We are interested in properties of this class that can be derived from observations of a subsystem only. To this end, we prove an information-theoretic inequality that allows for the inference of common ancestors of observed parts in any DAG representing some unknown larger system. More explicitly, we show that a large amount of dependence in terms of mutual information among the observations implies the existence of a common ancestor that distributes this information. Within the causal interpretation of DAGs, our result can be seen as a quantitative extension of Reichenbach’s principle of common cause to more than two variables. Our conclusions are valid also for non-probabilistic observations, such as binary strings, since we state the proof for an axiomatized notion of “mutual information” that includes the stochastic as well as the algorithmic version.

  19. Multiple sequence alignment accuracy and phylogenetic inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogden, T Heath; Rosenberg, Michael S

    2006-04-01

    Phylogenies are often thought to be more dependent upon the specifics of the sequence alignment rather than on the method of reconstruction. Simulation of sequences containing insertion and deletion events was performed in order to determine the role that alignment accuracy plays during phylogenetic inference. Data sets were simulated for pectinate, balanced, and random tree shapes under different conditions (ultrametric equal branch length, ultrametric random branch length, nonultrametric random branch length). Comparisons between hypothesized alignments and true alignments enabled determination of two measures of alignment accuracy, that of the total data set and that of individual branches. In general, our results indicate that as alignment error increases, topological accuracy decreases. This trend was much more pronounced for data sets derived from more pectinate topologies. In contrast, for balanced, ultrametric, equal branch length tree shapes, alignment inaccuracy had little average effect on tree reconstruction. These conclusions are based on average trends of many analyses under different conditions, and any one specific analysis, independent of the alignment accuracy, may recover very accurate or inaccurate topologies. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian, in general, outperformed neighbor joining and maximum parsimony in terms of tree reconstruction accuracy. Results also indicated that as the length of the branch and of the neighboring branches increase, alignment accuracy decreases, and the length of the neighboring branches is the major factor in topological accuracy. Thus, multiple-sequence alignment can be an important factor in downstream effects on topological reconstruction.

  20. Report of the Defense Science Board/Defense Policy Board Task Force On Theater Missile Defense

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    1996-01-01

    ... also tackled the controversial subject of the ABM Treaty and its effect on theater missile defenses Subsequent to its interim report, which expressed strong concerns about the demarcation path the US...

  1. SEVERAL CONSIDERATIONS OF COMPARED LAW ON SELF-DEFENSE (I

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lamya-Diana HĂRĂTĂU

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Criminal legislations of other States regulate self-defense in approximately similar manners, without major differences as compared to the conditions required by the Romanian law-maker to be fulfilled in order for the offence to become justifiable/exempt from liability. In this study, we chose to make a comparison in respect of self-defense from the perspective of 18 States1 around the world and, in the end, we will summarize several conclusions on the extent to which the Romanian law-maker could draw inspiration from their legislations.

  2. LAIT: a local ancestry inference toolkit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hui, Daniel; Fang, Zhou; Lin, Jerome; Duan, Qing; Li, Yun; Hu, Ming; Chen, Wei

    2017-09-06

    Inferring local ancestry in individuals of mixed ancestry has many applications, most notably in identifying disease-susceptible loci that vary among different ethnic groups. Many software packages are available for inferring local ancestry in admixed individuals. However, most of these existing software packages require specific formatted input files and generate output files in various types, yielding practical inconvenience. We developed a tool set, Local Ancestry Inference Toolkit (LAIT), which can convert standardized files into software-specific input file formats as well as standardize and summarize inference results for four popular local ancestry inference software: HAPMIX, LAMP, LAMP-LD, and ELAI. We tested LAIT using both simulated and real data sets and demonstrated that LAIT provides convenience to run multiple local ancestry inference software. In addition, we evaluated the performance of local ancestry software among different supported software packages, mainly focusing on inference accuracy and computational resources used. We provided a toolkit to facilitate the use of local ancestry inference software, especially for users with limited bioinformatics background.

  3. Forward and backward inference in spatial cognition.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Will D Penny

    Full Text Available This paper shows that the various computations underlying spatial cognition can be implemented using statistical inference in a single probabilistic model. Inference is implemented using a common set of 'lower-level' computations involving forward and backward inference over time. For example, to estimate where you are in a known environment, forward inference is used to optimally combine location estimates from path integration with those from sensory input. To decide which way to turn to reach a goal, forward inference is used to compute the likelihood of reaching that goal under each option. To work out which environment you are in, forward inference is used to compute the likelihood of sensory observations under the different hypotheses. For reaching sensory goals that require a chaining together of decisions, forward inference can be used to compute a state trajectory that will lead to that goal, and backward inference to refine the route and estimate control signals that produce the required trajectory. We propose that these computations are reflected in recent findings of pattern replay in the mammalian brain. Specifically, that theta sequences reflect decision making, theta flickering reflects model selection, and remote replay reflects route and motor planning. We also propose a mapping of the above computational processes onto lateral and medial entorhinal cortex and hippocampus.

  4. Generative Inferences Based on Learned Relations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Dawn; Lu, Hongjing; Holyoak, Keith J.

    2017-01-01

    A key property of relational representations is their "generativity": From partial descriptions of relations between entities, additional inferences can be drawn about other entities. A major theoretical challenge is to demonstrate how the capacity to make generative inferences could arise as a result of learning relations from…

  5. Inference in models with adaptive learning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chevillon, G.; Massmann, M.; Mavroeidis, S.

    2010-01-01

    Identification of structural parameters in models with adaptive learning can be weak, causing standard inference procedures to become unreliable. Learning also induces persistent dynamics, and this makes the distribution of estimators and test statistics non-standard. Valid inference can be

  6. Fiducial inference - A Neyman-Pearson interpretation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Salome, D; VonderLinden, W; Dose,; Fischer, R; Preuss, R

    1999-01-01

    Fisher's fiducial argument is a tool for deriving inferences in the form of a probability distribution on the parameter space, not based on Bayes's Theorem. Lindley established that in exceptional situations fiducial inferences coincide with posterior distributions; in the other situations fiducial

  7. Uncertainty in prediction and in inference

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hilgevoord, J.; Uffink, J.

    1991-01-01

    The concepts of uncertainty in prediction and inference are introduced and illustrated using the diffraction of light as an example. The close re-lationship between the concepts of uncertainty in inference and resolving power is noted. A general quantitative measure of uncertainty in

  8. Causal inference in economics and marketing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varian, Hal R

    2016-07-05

    This is an elementary introduction to causal inference in economics written for readers familiar with machine learning methods. The critical step in any causal analysis is estimating the counterfactual-a prediction of what would have happened in the absence of the treatment. The powerful techniques used in machine learning may be useful for developing better estimates of the counterfactual, potentially improving causal inference.

  9. Nonparametric predictive inference in statistical process control

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arts, G.R.J.; Coolen, F.P.A.; Laan, van der P.

    2000-01-01

    New methods for statistical process control are presented, where the inferences have a nonparametric predictive nature. We consider several problems in process control in terms of uncertainties about future observable random quantities, and we develop inferences for these random quantities hased on

  10. The Impact of Disablers on Predictive Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cummins, Denise Dellarosa

    2014-01-01

    People consider alternative causes when deciding whether a cause is responsible for an effect (diagnostic inference) but appear to neglect them when deciding whether an effect will occur (predictive inference). Five experiments were conducted to test a 2-part explanation of this phenomenon: namely, (a) that people interpret standard predictive…

  11. Compiling Relational Bayesian Networks for Exact Inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jaeger, Manfred; Darwiche, Adnan; Chavira, Mark

    2006-01-01

    We describe in this paper a system for exact inference with relational Bayesian networks as defined in the publicly available PRIMULA tool. The system is based on compiling propositional instances of relational Bayesian networks into arithmetic circuits and then performing online inference...

  12. Compiling Relational Bayesian Networks for Exact Inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jaeger, Manfred; Chavira, Mark; Darwiche, Adnan

    2004-01-01

    We describe a system for exact inference with relational Bayesian networks as defined in the publicly available \\primula\\ tool. The system is based on compiling propositional instances of relational Bayesian networks into arithmetic circuits and then performing online inference by evaluating...

  13. Perceptual learning as improved probabilistic inference in early sensory areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bejjanki, Vikranth R; Beck, Jeffrey M; Lu, Zhong-Lin; Pouget, Alexandre

    2011-05-01

    Extensive training on simple tasks such as fine orientation discrimination results in large improvements in performance, a form of learning known as perceptual learning. Previous models have argued that perceptual learning is due to either sharpening and amplification of tuning curves in early visual areas or to improved probabilistic inference in later visual areas (at the decision stage). However, early theories are inconsistent with the conclusions of psychophysical experiments manipulating external noise, whereas late theories cannot explain the changes in neural responses that have been reported in cortical areas V1 and V4. Here we show that we can capture both the neurophysiological and behavioral aspects of perceptual learning by altering only the feedforward connectivity in a recurrent network of spiking neurons so as to improve probabilistic inference in early visual areas. The resulting network shows modest changes in tuning curves, in line with neurophysiological reports, along with a marked reduction in the amplitude of pairwise noise correlations.

  14. 76 FR 28757 - Defense Logistics Agency Revised Regulation 1000.22, Environmental Considerations in Defense...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-05-18

    ... DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE Office of the Secretary [DOCKET ID DOD-2011-OS-0055] Defense Logistics Agency Revised Regulation 1000.22, Environmental Considerations in Defense Logistics Agency Actions AGENCY: Defense Logistics Agency, Department of Defense. ACTION: Notice of Availability (NOA) of Revised...

  15. 76 FR 53119 - Defense Logistics Agency Revised Regulation 1000.22, Environmental Considerations in Defense...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-08-25

    ... DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE Office of the Secretary [Docket ID: DOD-2011-OS-0055] Defense Logistics Agency Revised Regulation 1000.22, Environmental Considerations in Defense Logistics Agency Actions AGENCY: Defense Logistics Agency, Department of Defense. ACTION: Comment Addressed on Notice of...

  16. 75 FR 52732 - Renewal of Department of Defense Federal Advisory Committee; Missile Defense Advisory Committee

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-08-27

    ... Committee; Missile Defense Advisory Committee AGENCY: Department of Defense (DoD). ACTION: Renewal of..., the Department of Defense gives notice that it is renewing the charter for the Missile Defense... Director, Missile Defense Agency, independent advice and recommendations on all matters relating to missile...

  17. Technical Soddi Defenses: The Trojan Horse Defense Revisited

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chad Steel

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In 2004, the Trojan horse defense was at a crossroads, with two child pornography cases where it was successfully employed in the United Kingdom, resulting in acquittals.  The original Trojan horse defense has now become part of the more general “technical SODDI” defense, which includes the possibility of unknown actors using unsecured Wi-Fi connections or having physical access to a computer to perform criminal acts.  In the past ten years, it has failed to be effective in the United States for criminal cases, with no published acquittals in cases where it was the primary defense.  In the criminal cases where it has been used as leverage in plea negotiations, there has been either poor forensics performed by the prosecution or political pressure to resolve a matter.  On the civil side, however, the defense has been wildly successful, effectively shutting down large John Doe copyright infringement litigation against non-commercial violators.  

  18. Extended likelihood inference in reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martz, H.F. Jr.; Beckman, R.J.; Waller, R.A.

    1978-10-01

    Extended likelihood methods of inference are developed in which subjective information in the form of a prior distribution is combined with sampling results by means of an extended likelihood function. The extended likelihood function is standardized for use in obtaining extended likelihood intervals. Extended likelihood intervals are derived for the mean of a normal distribution with known variance, the failure-rate of an exponential distribution, and the parameter of a binomial distribution. Extended second-order likelihood methods are developed and used to solve several prediction problems associated with the exponential and binomial distributions. In particular, such quantities as the next failure-time, the number of failures in a given time period, and the time required to observe a given number of failures are predicted for the exponential model with a gamma prior distribution on the failure-rate. In addition, six types of life testing experiments are considered. For the binomial model with a beta prior distribution on the probability of nonsurvival, methods are obtained for predicting the number of nonsurvivors in a given sample size and for predicting the required sample size for observing a specified number of nonsurvivors. Examples illustrate each of the methods developed. Finally, comparisons are made with Bayesian intervals in those cases where these are known to exist

  19. Reinforcement learning or active inference?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friston, Karl J; Daunizeau, Jean; Kiebel, Stefan J

    2009-07-29

    This paper questions the need for reinforcement learning or control theory when optimising behaviour. We show that it is fairly simple to teach an agent complicated and adaptive behaviours using a free-energy formulation of perception. In this formulation, agents adjust their internal states and sampling of the environment to minimize their free-energy. Such agents learn causal structure in the environment and sample it in an adaptive and self-supervised fashion. This results in behavioural policies that reproduce those optimised by reinforcement learning and dynamic programming. Critically, we do not need to invoke the notion of reward, value or utility. We illustrate these points by solving a benchmark problem in dynamic programming; namely the mountain-car problem, using active perception or inference under the free-energy principle. The ensuing proof-of-concept may be important because the free-energy formulation furnishes a unified account of both action and perception and may speak to a reappraisal of the role of dopamine in the brain.

  20. Reinforcement learning or active inference?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karl J Friston

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper questions the need for reinforcement learning or control theory when optimising behaviour. We show that it is fairly simple to teach an agent complicated and adaptive behaviours using a free-energy formulation of perception. In this formulation, agents adjust their internal states and sampling of the environment to minimize their free-energy. Such agents learn causal structure in the environment and sample it in an adaptive and self-supervised fashion. This results in behavioural policies that reproduce those optimised by reinforcement learning and dynamic programming. Critically, we do not need to invoke the notion of reward, value or utility. We illustrate these points by solving a benchmark problem in dynamic programming; namely the mountain-car problem, using active perception or inference under the free-energy principle. The ensuing proof-of-concept may be important because the free-energy formulation furnishes a unified account of both action and perception and may speak to a reappraisal of the role of dopamine in the brain.

  1. Active inference and epistemic value.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friston, Karl; Rigoli, Francesco; Ognibene, Dimitri; Mathys, Christoph; Fitzgerald, Thomas; Pezzulo, Giovanni

    2015-01-01

    We offer a formal treatment of choice behavior based on the premise that agents minimize the expected free energy of future outcomes. Crucially, the negative free energy or quality of a policy can be decomposed into extrinsic and epistemic (or intrinsic) value. Minimizing expected free energy is therefore equivalent to maximizing extrinsic value or expected utility (defined in terms of prior preferences or goals), while maximizing information gain or intrinsic value (or reducing uncertainty about the causes of valuable outcomes). The resulting scheme resolves the exploration-exploitation dilemma: Epistemic value is maximized until there is no further information gain, after which exploitation is assured through maximization of extrinsic value. This is formally consistent with the Infomax principle, generalizing formulations of active vision based upon salience (Bayesian surprise) and optimal decisions based on expected utility and risk-sensitive (Kullback-Leibler) control. Furthermore, as with previous active inference formulations of discrete (Markovian) problems, ad hoc softmax parameters become the expected (Bayes-optimal) precision of beliefs about, or confidence in, policies. This article focuses on the basic theory, illustrating the ideas with simulations. A key aspect of these simulations is the similarity between precision updates and dopaminergic discharges observed in conditioning paradigms.

  2. Ancient Biomolecules and Evolutionary Inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cappellini, Enrico; Prohaska, Ana; Racimo, Fernando; Welker, Frido; Pedersen, Mikkel Winther; Allentoft, Morten E; de Barros Damgaard, Peter; Gutenbrunner, Petra; Dunne, Julie; Hammann, Simon; Roffet-Salque, Mélanie; Ilardo, Melissa; Moreno-Mayar, J Víctor; Wang, Yucheng; Sikora, Martin; Vinner, Lasse; Cox, Jürgen; Evershed, Richard P; Willerslev, Eske

    2018-04-25

    Over the last decade, studies of ancient biomolecules-particularly ancient DNA, proteins, and lipids-have revolutionized our understanding of evolutionary history. Though initially fraught with many challenges, the field now stands on firm foundations. Researchers now successfully retrieve nucleotide and amino acid sequences, as well as lipid signatures, from progressively older samples, originating from geographic areas and depositional environments that, until recently, were regarded as hostile to long-term preservation of biomolecules. Sampling frequencies and the spatial and temporal scope of studies have also increased markedly, and with them the size and quality of the data sets generated. This progress has been made possible by continuous technical innovations in analytical methods, enhanced criteria for the selection of ancient samples, integrated experimental methods, and advanced computational approaches. Here, we discuss the history and current state of ancient biomolecule research, its applications to evolutionary inference, and future directions for this young and exciting field. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Biochemistry Volume 87 is June 20, 2018. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

  3. Bayesian Inference Methods for Sparse Channel Estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Niels Lovmand

    2013-01-01

    This thesis deals with sparse Bayesian learning (SBL) with application to radio channel estimation. As opposed to the classical approach for sparse signal representation, we focus on the problem of inferring complex signals. Our investigations within SBL constitute the basis for the development...... of Bayesian inference algorithms for sparse channel estimation. Sparse inference methods aim at finding the sparse representation of a signal given in some overcomplete dictionary of basis vectors. Within this context, one of our main contributions to the field of SBL is a hierarchical representation...... analysis of the complex prior representation, where we show that the ability to induce sparse estimates of a given prior heavily depends on the inference method used and, interestingly, whether real or complex variables are inferred. We also show that the Bayesian estimators derived from the proposed...

  4. EI: A Program for Ecological Inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gary King

    2004-09-01

    Full Text Available The program EI provides a method of inferring individual behavior from aggregate data. It implements the statistical procedures, diagnostics, and graphics from the book A Solution to the Ecological Inference Problem: Reconstructing Individual Behavior from Aggregate Data (King 1997. Ecological inference, as traditionally defined, is the process of using aggregate (i.e., "ecological" data to infer discrete individual-level relationships of interest when individual-level data are not available. Ecological inferences are required in political science research when individual-level surveys are unavailable (e.g., local or comparative electoral politics, unreliable (racial politics, insufficient (political geography, or infeasible (political history. They are also required in numerous areas of ma jor significance in public policy (e.g., for applying the Voting Rights Act and other academic disciplines ranging from epidemiology and marketing to sociology and quantitative history.

  5. Statistical inference an integrated Bayesianlikelihood approach

    CERN Document Server

    Aitkin, Murray

    2010-01-01

    Filling a gap in current Bayesian theory, Statistical Inference: An Integrated Bayesian/Likelihood Approach presents a unified Bayesian treatment of parameter inference and model comparisons that can be used with simple diffuse prior specifications. This novel approach provides new solutions to difficult model comparison problems and offers direct Bayesian counterparts of frequentist t-tests and other standard statistical methods for hypothesis testing.After an overview of the competing theories of statistical inference, the book introduces the Bayes/likelihood approach used throughout. It pre

  6. Organizing Defense Logistics: What Strategic Structures Should Exist for the Defense Supply Chain

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Maddox, Edward D

    2005-01-01

    .... The primary research question of this study was: What strategic organizational structures should exist within the Department of Defense to facilitate further integration of the defense supply chain...

  7. The Inflammasome in Host Defense

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gang Chen

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Nod-like receptors have emerged as an important family of sensors in host defense. These receptors are expressed in macrophages, dendritic cells and monocytes and play an important role in microbial immunity. Some Nod-like receptors form the inflammasome, a protein complex that activates caspase-1 in response to several stimuli. Caspase-1 activation leads to processing and secretion of pro-inflammatory cytokines such as interleukin (IL-1β and IL-18. Here, we discuss recent advances in the inflammasome field with an emphasis on host defense. We also compare differential requirements for inflammasome activation in dendritic cells, macrophages and monocytes.

  8. On Three Defenses of Sentimentalism

    OpenAIRE

    Iwasa, Noriaki

    2013-01-01

    This essay shows that a moral sense or moral sentiments alone cannot identify appropriate morals. To this end, the essay analyzes three defenses of Francis Hutcheson’s, David Hume’s, and Adam Smith’s moral sense theories against the relativism charge that a moral sense or moral sentiments vary across people, societies, cultures, or times. The first defense is the claim that there is a universal moral sense or universal moral sentiments. However, even if they exist, a moral sense or moral sent...

  9. Defense Primer: The National Defense Budget Function (050)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-03-17

    individual policy activities. Subfunctions are assigned a numeric identifier (ending in a single digit ) related to the function to which they belong...operations, equipment repair, and maintenance of defense facilities, healthcare costs, and administration. 24% Military Personnel (MILPERS) Pay and

  10. Report on Defense Business Operations to the Congressional Defense Committees

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-03-15

    Department’s strategic framework for planning and decision-making, and acknowledged the need to establish clear, actionable strategic goals and...Business Operations Department of Defense Business Transformation 5 2. Business Enterprise Priorities Six Business Enterprise Priorities ( BEPs ... framework products that facilitate the interoperability and integration of the operational activities, processes, data, information exchanges

  11. Safety issues at the defense production reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-01-01

    The United States produces plutonium and tritium for use in nuclear weapons at the defense production reactors endash the N Reactor in Washington and the Savannah River reactors in South Carolina. This report reaches general conclusions about the management of those reactors and highlights a number of safety and technical issues that should be resolved. The report provides an assessment of the safety management, safety review, and safety methodology employed by the Department of Energy and the private contractors who operate the reactors for the federal government. The report is necessarily based on a limited review of the defense production reactors. It does not address whether any of the reactors are ''safe,'' because such an analysis would involve a determination of acceptable risk endash a matter of obvious importance, but one that was beyond the purview of the committee. It also does not address whether the safety of the production reactors is comparable to that of commercial nuclear power stations, because even this narrower question extended beyond the charge to the committee and would have involved detailed analyses that the committee could not undertake

  12. Study of General health, resiliency, and defense mechanisms in patients with migraine headache

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alireza Aghayusefi

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: Migraine is a neurological disease that the etiology, several factors affect its onset or its exacerbation. One of the factors affecting disease is psychological factors such as defense mechanisms, resiliency, and general health. This study assessed the relationship between general health, resiliency, and general defense mechanisms, and also predicts the general health of people with migraine headaches that have a high resiliency and use mature defense mechanisms. Material and Methods: 50 women with migraine headache in the city of Bushehr using defense mechanisms, resiliency, and general health questionnaires were studied. For statistical analysis, Pearson correlation and multiple regression tests were used by SPSS 17 software. Results: The results showed that most of the defense mechanisms of migraine sufferers are Immature and Neuroticism. There is significant negative correlation between the deterioration of general health and resiliency as well as the mature defense mechanism (p=0/003, and also there is a significant positive correlation between this deterioration with neuroticism (p=0/040 and immature defense mechanisms (p=0/041. On the other hand there is significant negative correlation between resiliencies with immature (p=0/009 and neuroticism defense mechanisms (p=0/04, and also with mature defense mechanism has a significant positive correlation (p=0/003. Also, as more people use the mature defense mechanism, their deterioration of general health will be reduced, but this relationship will be stronger with the presence of resiliency. So migraine people use the mature defense mechanisms with high resiliency will have more favorable general health (less deterioration of general health. Conclusion: This study showed that migraine patients use the mature defense mechanisms with high resiliency will have more favorable general health (less deterioration of general health.

  13. Inferring climate variability from skewed proxy records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emile-Geay, J.; Tingley, M.

    2013-12-01

    Many paleoclimate analyses assume a linear relationship between the proxy and the target climate variable, and that both the climate quantity and the errors follow normal distributions. An ever-increasing number of proxy records, however, are better modeled using distributions that are heavy-tailed, skewed, or otherwise non-normal, on account of the proxies reflecting non-normally distributed climate variables, or having non-linear relationships with a normally distributed climate variable. The analysis of such proxies requires a different set of tools, and this work serves as a cautionary tale on the danger of making conclusions about the underlying climate from applications of classic statistical procedures to heavily skewed proxy records. Inspired by runoff proxies, we consider an idealized proxy characterized by a nonlinear, thresholded relationship with climate, and describe three approaches to using such a record to infer past climate: (i) applying standard methods commonly used in the paleoclimate literature, without considering the non-linearities inherent to the proxy record; (ii) applying a power transform prior to using these standard methods; (iii) constructing a Bayesian model to invert the mechanistic relationship between the climate and the proxy. We find that neglecting the skewness in the proxy leads to erroneous conclusions and often exaggerates changes in climate variability between different time intervals. In contrast, an explicit treatment of the skewness, using either power transforms or a Bayesian inversion of the mechanistic model for the proxy, yields significantly better estimates of past climate variations. We apply these insights in two paleoclimate settings: (1) a classical sedimentary record from Laguna Pallcacocha, Ecuador (Moy et al., 2002). Our results agree with the qualitative aspects of previous analyses of this record, but quantitative departures are evident and hold implications for how such records are interpreted, and

  14. Bootstrap-based Support of HGT Inferred by Maximum Parsimony

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nakhleh Luay

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Maximum parsimony is one of the most commonly used criteria for reconstructing phylogenetic trees. Recently, Nakhleh and co-workers extended this criterion to enable reconstruction of phylogenetic networks, and demonstrated its application to detecting reticulate evolutionary relationships. However, one of the major problems with this extension has been that it favors more complex evolutionary relationships over simpler ones, thus having the potential for overestimating the amount of reticulation in the data. An ad hoc solution to this problem that has been used entails inspecting the improvement in the parsimony length as more reticulation events are added to the model, and stopping when the improvement is below a certain threshold. Results In this paper, we address this problem in a more systematic way, by proposing a nonparametric bootstrap-based measure of support of inferred reticulation events, and using it to determine the number of those events, as well as their placements. A number of samples is generated from the given sequence alignment, and reticulation events are inferred based on each sample. Finally, the support of each reticulation event is quantified based on the inferences made over all samples. Conclusions We have implemented our method in the NEPAL software tool (available publicly at http://bioinfo.cs.rice.edu/, and studied its performance on both biological and simulated data sets. While our studies show very promising results, they also highlight issues that are inherently challenging when applying the maximum parsimony criterion to detect reticulate evolution.

  15. Financial Reporting Procedures for Defense Distribution Depots - Defense Logistics Agency Business Area of the Defense Business Operations Fund

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Young, Shelton

    1994-01-01

    In our audit of the FY 1993 Financial Statements for the Distribution Depots--Defense Logistics Agency Business Mea of the Defense Business Operations Fund, we evaluated procedures and controls used...

  16. Network inference via adaptive optimal design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stigter Johannes D

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Current research in network reverse engineering for genetic or metabolic networks very often does not include a proper experimental and/or input design. In this paper we address this issue in more detail and suggest a method that includes an iterative design of experiments based, on the most recent data that become available. The presented approach allows a reliable reconstruction of the network and addresses an important issue, i.e., the analysis and the propagation of uncertainties as they exist in both the data and in our own knowledge. These two types of uncertainties have their immediate ramifications for the uncertainties in the parameter estimates and, hence, are taken into account from the very beginning of our experimental design. Findings The method is demonstrated for two small networks that include a genetic network for mRNA synthesis and degradation and an oscillatory network describing a molecular network underlying adenosine 3’-5’ cyclic monophosphate (cAMP as observed in populations of Dyctyostelium cells. In both cases a substantial reduction in parameter uncertainty was observed. Extension to larger scale networks is possible but needs a more rigorous parameter estimation algorithm that includes sparsity as a constraint in the optimization procedure. Conclusion We conclude that a careful experiment design very often (but not always pays off in terms of reliability in the inferred network topology. For large scale networks a better parameter estimation algorithm is required that includes sparsity as an additional constraint. These algorithms are available in the literature and can also be used in an adaptive optimal design setting as demonstrated in this paper.

  17. Inferring modules from human protein interactome classes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chaurasia Gautam

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The integration of protein-protein interaction networks derived from high-throughput screening approaches and complementary sources is a key topic in systems biology. Although integration of protein interaction data is conventionally performed, the effects of this procedure on the result of network analyses has not been examined yet. In particular, in order to optimize the fusion of heterogeneous interaction datasets, it is crucial to consider not only their degree of coverage and accuracy, but also their mutual dependencies and additional salient features. Results We examined this issue based on the analysis of modules detected by network clustering methods applied to both integrated and individual (disaggregated data sources, which we call interactome classes. Due to class diversity, we deal with variable dependencies of data features arising from structural specificities and biases, but also from possible overlaps. Since highly connected regions of the human interactome may point to potential protein complexes, we have focused on the concept of modularity, and elucidated the detection power of module extraction algorithms by independent validations based on GO, MIPS and KEGG. From the combination of protein interactions with gene expressions, a confidence scoring scheme has been proposed before proceeding via GO with further classification in permanent and transient modules. Conclusions Disaggregated interactomes are shown to be informative for inferring modularity, thus contributing to perform an effective integrative analysis. Validation of the extracted modules by multiple annotation allows for the assessment of confidence measures assigned to the modules in a protein pathway context. Notably, the proposed multilayer confidence scheme can be used for network calibration by enabling a transition from unweighted to weighted interactomes based on biological evidence.

  18. Inferring Domain Plans in Question-Answering

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Pollack, Martha E

    1986-01-01

    The importance of plan inference in models of conversation has been widely noted in the computational-linguistics literature, and its incorporation in question-answering systems has enabled a range...

  19. Scalable inference for stochastic block models

    KAUST Repository

    Peng, Chengbin; Zhang, Zhihua; Wong, Ka-Chun; Zhang, Xiangliang; Keyes, David E.

    2017-01-01

    Community detection in graphs is widely used in social and biological networks, and the stochastic block model is a powerful probabilistic tool for describing graphs with community structures. However, in the era of "big data," traditional inference

  20. Efficient algorithms for conditional independence inference

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bouckaert, R.; Hemmecke, R.; Lindner, S.; Studený, Milan

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 11, č. 1 (2010), s. 3453-3479 ISSN 1532-4435 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA201/08/0539; GA MŠk 1M0572 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : conditional independence inference * linear programming approach Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 2.949, year: 2010 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2010/MTR/studeny-efficient algorithms for conditional independence inference.pdf

  1. Soviet debate on missile defense

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parrott, B.

    1987-04-01

    Although the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) is meant to cope with the danger of a Soviet nuclear attack, the recent US debate over SDI has paid surprisingly little attention to Soviet views of ballistic missile defense. Despite the existence of a substantial body of pertinent scholarship, the debate has failed to take adequate account of major changes in Soviet ballistic missile defense policy since the mid-1960s. It has also neglected the links between current Soviet military policy and broader Soviet political and economic choices. The Soviets regard SDI not as a novel undertaking to reduce the risks of nuclear war but as an extension of the geopolitical competition between the superpowers. This competition has been dominated in the 1980s, in the Soviet view, by sharply increased US assertiveness and the decline of detente. Viewing SDI as a manifestation of these general trends, Soviet decision makers find the prospect of an unregulated race in ballistic missile defenses and military space technologies deeply unsettling. The deterioration of superpower relations has raised serious doubts in Moscow about the wisdom of Soviet external policy during the 1970s and has provoked sharp internal differences over policy toward the US. Already highly suspicious of the Reagan administration, the elite is united by a general conviction that SDI is an American gambit that may ultimately undercut past Soviet strategic gains and pose a grave new threat to Soviet security. 14 references.

  2. Safety issues at the defense production reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-01-01

    The United States produces plutonium and tritium for use in nuclear weapons at the defense production reactors - the N Reactor in Washington and the Savannah River reactors in South Carolina. This report reaches general conclusions about the management of those reactors and highlights a number of safety and technical issues that should be resolved. The report provides an assessment of the safety management, safety review, and safety methodology employed by the Department of Energy and the private contractors who operate the reactors for the federal government. This report examines the safety objective established by the Department of Energy for the production reactors and the process the Department of its contractors use to implement the objective; focuses on a variety of uncertainties concerning the production reactors, particularly those related to potential vulnerabilities to severe accidents; and identifies ways in which the DOE approach to management of the safety of the production reactors can be improved

  3. On the criticality of inferred models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mastromatteo, Iacopo; Marsili, Matteo

    2011-10-01

    Advanced inference techniques allow one to reconstruct a pattern of interaction from high dimensional data sets, from probing simultaneously thousands of units of extended systems—such as cells, neural tissues and financial markets. We focus here on the statistical properties of inferred models and argue that inference procedures are likely to yield models which are close to singular values of parameters, akin to critical points in physics where phase transitions occur. These are points where the response of physical systems to external perturbations, as measured by the susceptibility, is very large and diverges in the limit of infinite size. We show that the reparameterization invariant metrics in the space of probability distributions of these models (the Fisher information) are directly related to the susceptibility of the inferred model. As a result, distinguishable models tend to accumulate close to critical points, where the susceptibility diverges in infinite systems. This region is the one where the estimate of inferred parameters is most stable. In order to illustrate these points, we discuss inference of interacting point processes with application to financial data and show that sensible choices of observation time scales naturally yield models which are close to criticality.

  4. On the criticality of inferred models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mastromatteo, Iacopo; Marsili, Matteo

    2011-01-01

    Advanced inference techniques allow one to reconstruct a pattern of interaction from high dimensional data sets, from probing simultaneously thousands of units of extended systems—such as cells, neural tissues and financial markets. We focus here on the statistical properties of inferred models and argue that inference procedures are likely to yield models which are close to singular values of parameters, akin to critical points in physics where phase transitions occur. These are points where the response of physical systems to external perturbations, as measured by the susceptibility, is very large and diverges in the limit of infinite size. We show that the reparameterization invariant metrics in the space of probability distributions of these models (the Fisher information) are directly related to the susceptibility of the inferred model. As a result, distinguishable models tend to accumulate close to critical points, where the susceptibility diverges in infinite systems. This region is the one where the estimate of inferred parameters is most stable. In order to illustrate these points, we discuss inference of interacting point processes with application to financial data and show that sensible choices of observation time scales naturally yield models which are close to criticality

  5. Polynomial Chaos Surrogates for Bayesian Inference

    KAUST Repository

    Le Maitre, Olivier

    2016-01-06

    The Bayesian inference is a popular probabilistic method to solve inverse problems, such as the identification of field parameter in a PDE model. The inference rely on the Bayes rule to update the prior density of the sought field, from observations, and derive its posterior distribution. In most cases the posterior distribution has no explicit form and has to be sampled, for instance using a Markov-Chain Monte Carlo method. In practice the prior field parameter is decomposed and truncated (e.g. by means of Karhunen- Lo´eve decomposition) to recast the inference problem into the inference of a finite number of coordinates. Although proved effective in many situations, the Bayesian inference as sketched above faces several difficulties requiring improvements. First, sampling the posterior can be a extremely costly task as it requires multiple resolutions of the PDE model for different values of the field parameter. Second, when the observations are not very much informative, the inferred parameter field can highly depends on its prior which can be somehow arbitrary. These issues have motivated the introduction of reduced modeling or surrogates for the (approximate) determination of the parametrized PDE solution and hyperparameters in the description of the prior field. Our contribution focuses on recent developments in these two directions: the acceleration of the posterior sampling by means of Polynomial Chaos expansions and the efficient treatment of parametrized covariance functions for the prior field. We also discuss the possibility of making such approach adaptive to further improve its efficiency.

  6. A Bayesian Network Schema for Lessening Database Inference

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Chang, LiWu; Moskowitz, Ira S

    2001-01-01

    .... The authors introduce a formal schema for database inference analysis, based upon a Bayesian network structure, which identifies critical parameters involved in the inference problem and represents...

  7. Managing Quadrennial Defense Review Integration: An Overview

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Schrader, John

    2001-01-01

    ...). The lessons learned from the 1997 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR 1997) included the need for leadership guidance and integration of analytic activities to sort through the myriad issues that are always confronting the Department of Defense...

  8. Department of Defense PERSEREC (DOD PERSEREC)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Social Security Administration — The purpose of this agreement is for SSA to verify SSN information for Defense Manpower Data Center (DMDC) of the Department of Defense. DMDC will use the SSA data...

  9. THE PROGNOSIS OF RUSSIAN DEFENSE INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENT IMPLEMENTED THROUGH REGRESSION ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L.M. Kapustina

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available The article illustrates the results of investigation the major internal and external factors which influence the development of the defense industry, as well as the results of regression analysis which quantitatively displays the factorial contribution in the growth rate of Russian defense industry. On the basis of calculated regression dependences the authors fulfilled the medium-term prognosis of defense industry. Optimistic and inertial versions of defense product growth rate for the period up to 2009 are based on scenario conditions in Russian economy worked out by the Ministry of economy and development. In conclusion authors point out which factors and conditions have the largest impact on successful and stable operation of Russian defense industry.

  10. The Art and Science of Defense Logistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    1995-04-01

    The Art And Science Of Defense Logistics CSC 1995 SUBJECT AREA - Logistics THE ART AND SCIENCE OF DEFENSE LOGISTICS...Government EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Title: The Art and Science of Defense Logistics Author: Major S. I. Schuler, USMC Research Questions: 1...00-1995 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE The Art And Science Of Defense Logistics 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6

  11. Missile defense in the United States

    OpenAIRE

    Heurlin, Bertil

    2004-01-01

    The basic arguments of this paper are, first, that the current US-missile defense, being operative from fall 2004, is based upon the former experiences with missile defense, second, that missile defense closely associated with weapons of mass destruction has gained the highest priority in American national security policy due to the 9.11 attacks, and third, that the superior argument for establishing an American missile defense is to maintain global, long term political-strategic superiority....

  12. Utilitarian Moral Judgment Exclusively Coheres with Inference from Is to Ought.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elqayam, Shira; Wilkinson, Meredith R; Thompson, Valerie A; Over, David E; Evans, Jonathan St B T

    2017-01-01

    Faced with moral choice, people either judge according to pre-existing obligations ( deontological judgment), or by taking into account the consequences of their actions ( utilitarian judgment). We propose that the latter coheres with a more general cognitive mechanism - deontic introduction , the tendency to infer normative ('deontic') conclusions from descriptive premises (is-ought inference). Participants were presented with vignettes that allowed either deontological or utilitarian choice, and asked to draw a range of deontic conclusions, as well as judge the overall moral rightness of each choice separately. We predicted and found a selective defeasibility pattern, in which manipulations that suppressed deontic introduction also suppressed utilitarian moral judgment, but had little effect on deontological moral judgment. Thus, deontic introduction coheres with utilitarian moral judgment almost exclusively. We suggest a family of norm-generating informal inferences, in which normative conclusions are drawn from descriptive (although value-laden) premises. This family includes deontic introduction and utilitarian moral judgment as well as other informal inferences. We conclude with a call for greater integration of research in moral judgment and research into deontic reasoning and informal inference.

  13. Utilitarian Moral Judgment Exclusively Coheres with Inference from Is to Ought

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shira Elqayam

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Faced with moral choice, people either judge according to pre-existing obligations (deontological judgment, or by taking into account the consequences of their actions (utilitarian judgment. We propose that the latter coheres with a more general cognitive mechanism – deontic introduction, the tendency to infer normative (‘deontic’ conclusions from descriptive premises (is-ought inference. Participants were presented with vignettes that allowed either deontological or utilitarian choice, and asked to draw a range of deontic conclusions, as well as judge the overall moral rightness of each choice separately. We predicted and found a selective defeasibility pattern, in which manipulations that suppressed deontic introduction also suppressed utilitarian moral judgment, but had little effect on deontological moral judgment. Thus, deontic introduction coheres with utilitarian moral judgment almost exclusively. We suggest a family of norm-generating informal inferences, in which normative conclusions are drawn from descriptive (although value-laden premises. This family includes deontic introduction and utilitarian moral judgment as well as other informal inferences. We conclude with a call for greater integration of research in moral judgment and research into deontic reasoning and informal inference.

  14. Mood States Associated with Induced Defensiveness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaderlund, Natasha Slesnick; Waldron, Holly Barrett

    1994-01-01

    Compared effects of neutral and defensive mood induction in 70 students reporting conflicted versus nonconflicted families for presence of hostility, aggression, fear, anxiety, and sadness. Found that defensive students from high-conflict families reported stronger negative emotions than did neutral high-conflict and defensive low-conflict…

  15. 22 CFR 120.6 - Defense article.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Defense article. 120.6 Section 120.6 Foreign Relations DEPARTMENT OF STATE INTERNATIONAL TRAFFIC IN ARMS REGULATIONS PURPOSE AND DEFINITIONS § 120.6 Defense article. Defense article means any item or technical data designated in § 121.1 of this subchapter...

  16. 22 CFR 120.9 - Defense service.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Defense service. 120.9 Section 120.9 Foreign... Defense service. (a) Defense service means: (1) The furnishing of assistance (including training) to..., educational, or information publications and media of all kinds, training aid, orientation, training exercise...

  17. On Some Tendencies in Defense Policy of Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalia K. Meden

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper discusses the newest trends in the German defense policy, caused by the aggravation of European geopolitical situation. The author analyzes various sources, among them official reports presented to the Ministry of Defense and the Bundestag; speeches by the Minister of Defense and by supreme commanders of the Bundeswehr; published in mass media information on condition and problems of the military forces, as well as modernization of the equipment. Officially it is deemed, that the reform of the Bundeswehr which started in 2011, so far has turned into an amorphous process of renewal (Neuausrichtung, intended to improve the military organization. Since the acting Cabinet was farmed, Ursula von der Leyen - the first woman Minister of Defense of Germany - directs these activities, and her style of work affects all the work in the Ministry. Meanwhile, the revision of the main parameters of the defensive activity and the whole German politics is caused not by a fresh leadership, but by the most sharp after the end of the "cold war" geopolitical crisis in Europe. The author comes to conclusion, that a turning point in the Defensive Policy of Germany is taking shape, so that all the aspects of military organization are now affected: command stuff training, military equipment, strengthening of ties with allies. Anti-Russian propaganda in mass-media reanimates an image of an enemy and prepares public opinion to the future growth of military expenses; it even overcomes certain pacifism, so usual in modern society. Here in Russia, one must take all this into account, as an idea of the low fighting capacity of the Bundeswehr, which was formed in the last years, is getting obsolete, and could became a dangerous illusion.

  18. 75 FR 65462 - Renewal of Department of Defense Federal Advisory Committee; Department of Defense Military...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-25

    ... Committee; Department of Defense Military Family Readiness Council AGENCY: Department of Defense (DoD... renewing the charter for the Department of Defense Military Family Readiness Council (hereafter referred to... requirements for the support of military family readiness by the Department of Defense; and (c) evaluate and...

  19. Response to Competitive Entry: A Rationale for Delayed Defensive Reaction

    OpenAIRE

    Ajay Kalra; Surendra Rajiv; Kannan Srinivasan

    1998-01-01

    Empirical studies examining responses to new product entries come to the puzzling conclusion that, in general, an incumbent reacts to a new entrant after a significant delay. Even easy-to-implement price cuts are observed after significant lag following entry. These findings seem to contradict the existing literature that either implicitly assumes or strongly advocates immediate defensive responses to limit competitive encroachment. When a competing firm enters the market, consumers may be un...

  20. Missile Defense: Ballistic Missile Defense System Testing Delays Affect Delivery of Capabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-04-28

    Page 1 GAO-16-339R Ballistic Missile Defense 441 G St. N.W. Washington, DC 20548 April 28, 2016 Congressional Committees Missile Defense... Ballistic Missile Defense System Testing Delays Affect Delivery of Capabilities For over half a century, the Department of Defense (DOD) has been...funding efforts to develop a system to detect, track, and defeat enemy ballistic missiles. The current system—the Ballistic Missile Defense System

  1. Ego defense mechanisms in Pakistani medical students: a cross sectional analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khalid Roha

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Ego defense mechanisms (or factors, defined by Freud as unconscious resources used by the ego to reduce conflict between the id and superego, are a reflection of how an individual deals with conflict and stress. This study assesses the prevalence of various ego defense mechanisms employed by medical students of Karachi, which is a group with higher stress levels than the general population. Methods A questionnaire based cross-sectional study was conducted on 682 students from five major medical colleges of Karachi over 4 weeks in November 2006. Ego defense mechanisms were assessed using the Defense Style Questionnaire (DSQ-40 individually and as grouped under Mature, Immature, and Neurotic factors. Results Lower mean scores of Immature defense mechanisms (4.78 were identified than those for Neurotic (5.62 and Mature (5.60 mechanisms among medical students of Karachi. Immature mechanisms were more commonly employed by males whereas females employed more Neurotic mechanisms than males. Neurotic and Immature defenses were significantly more prevalent in first and second year students. Mature mechanisms were significantly higher in students enrolled in Government colleges than Private institutions (p Conclusions Immature defense mechanisms were less commonly employed than Neurotic and Mature mechanisms among medical students of Karachi. The greater employment of Neurotic defenses may reflect greater stress levels than the general population. Employment of these mechanisms was associated with female gender, enrollment in a private medical college, and students enrolled in the first 2 years of medical school.

  2. Probable Inference and Quantum Mechanics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grandy, W. T. Jr.

    2009-01-01

    In its current very successful interpretation the quantum theory is fundamentally statistical in nature. Although commonly viewed as a probability amplitude whose (complex) square is a probability, the wavefunction or state vector continues to defy consensus as to its exact meaning, primarily because it is not a physical observable. Rather than approach this problem directly, it is suggested that it is first necessary to clarify the precise role of probability theory in quantum mechanics, either as applied to, or as an intrinsic part of the quantum theory. When all is said and done the unsurprising conclusion is that quantum mechanics does not constitute a logic and probability unto itself, but adheres to the long-established rules of classical probability theory while providing a means within itself for calculating the relevant probabilities. In addition, the wavefunction is seen to be a description of the quantum state assigned by an observer based on definite information, such that the same state must be assigned by any other observer based on the same information, in much the same way that probabilities are assigned.

  3. Deep Learning for Population Genetic Inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheehan, Sara; Song, Yun S

    2016-03-01

    Given genomic variation data from multiple individuals, computing the likelihood of complex population genetic models is often infeasible. To circumvent this problem, we introduce a novel likelihood-free inference framework by applying deep learning, a powerful modern technique in machine learning. Deep learning makes use of multilayer neural networks to learn a feature-based function from the input (e.g., hundreds of correlated summary statistics of data) to the output (e.g., population genetic parameters of interest). We demonstrate that deep learning can be effectively employed for population genetic inference and learning informative features of data. As a concrete application, we focus on the challenging problem of jointly inferring natural selection and demography (in the form of a population size change history). Our method is able to separate the global nature of demography from the local nature of selection, without sequential steps for these two factors. Studying demography and selection jointly is motivated by Drosophila, where pervasive selection confounds demographic analysis. We apply our method to 197 African Drosophila melanogaster genomes from Zambia to infer both their overall demography, and regions of their genome under selection. We find many regions of the genome that have experienced hard sweeps, and fewer under selection on standing variation (soft sweep) or balancing selection. Interestingly, we find that soft sweeps and balancing selection occur more frequently closer to the centromere of each chromosome. In addition, our demographic inference suggests that previously estimated bottlenecks for African Drosophila melanogaster are too extreme.

  4. Deep Learning for Population Genetic Inference.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara Sheehan

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Given genomic variation data from multiple individuals, computing the likelihood of complex population genetic models is often infeasible. To circumvent this problem, we introduce a novel likelihood-free inference framework by applying deep learning, a powerful modern technique in machine learning. Deep learning makes use of multilayer neural networks to learn a feature-based function from the input (e.g., hundreds of correlated summary statistics of data to the output (e.g., population genetic parameters of interest. We demonstrate that deep learning can be effectively employed for population genetic inference and learning informative features of data. As a concrete application, we focus on the challenging problem of jointly inferring natural selection and demography (in the form of a population size change history. Our method is able to separate the global nature of demography from the local nature of selection, without sequential steps for these two factors. Studying demography and selection jointly is motivated by Drosophila, where pervasive selection confounds demographic analysis. We apply our method to 197 African Drosophila melanogaster genomes from Zambia to infer both their overall demography, and regions of their genome under selection. We find many regions of the genome that have experienced hard sweeps, and fewer under selection on standing variation (soft sweep or balancing selection. Interestingly, we find that soft sweeps and balancing selection occur more frequently closer to the centromere of each chromosome. In addition, our demographic inference suggests that previously estimated bottlenecks for African Drosophila melanogaster are too extreme.

  5. Deep Learning for Population Genetic Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheehan, Sara; Song, Yun S.

    2016-01-01

    Given genomic variation data from multiple individuals, computing the likelihood of complex population genetic models is often infeasible. To circumvent this problem, we introduce a novel likelihood-free inference framework by applying deep learning, a powerful modern technique in machine learning. Deep learning makes use of multilayer neural networks to learn a feature-based function from the input (e.g., hundreds of correlated summary statistics of data) to the output (e.g., population genetic parameters of interest). We demonstrate that deep learning can be effectively employed for population genetic inference and learning informative features of data. As a concrete application, we focus on the challenging problem of jointly inferring natural selection and demography (in the form of a population size change history). Our method is able to separate the global nature of demography from the local nature of selection, without sequential steps for these two factors. Studying demography and selection jointly is motivated by Drosophila, where pervasive selection confounds demographic analysis. We apply our method to 197 African Drosophila melanogaster genomes from Zambia to infer both their overall demography, and regions of their genome under selection. We find many regions of the genome that have experienced hard sweeps, and fewer under selection on standing variation (soft sweep) or balancing selection. Interestingly, we find that soft sweeps and balancing selection occur more frequently closer to the centromere of each chromosome. In addition, our demographic inference suggests that previously estimated bottlenecks for African Drosophila melanogaster are too extreme. PMID:27018908

  6. Inferring Phylogenetic Networks Using PhyloNet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Dingqiao; Yu, Yun; Zhu, Jiafan; Nakhleh, Luay

    2018-07-01

    PhyloNet was released in 2008 as a software package for representing and analyzing phylogenetic networks. At the time of its release, the main functionalities in PhyloNet consisted of measures for comparing network topologies and a single heuristic for reconciling gene trees with a species tree. Since then, PhyloNet has grown significantly. The software package now includes a wide array of methods for inferring phylogenetic networks from data sets of unlinked loci while accounting for both reticulation (e.g., hybridization) and incomplete lineage sorting. In particular, PhyloNet now allows for maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian inference of phylogenetic networks from gene tree estimates. Furthermore, Bayesian inference directly from sequence data (sequence alignments or biallelic markers) is implemented. Maximum parsimony is based on an extension of the "minimizing deep coalescences" criterion to phylogenetic networks, whereas maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference are based on the multispecies network coalescent. All methods allow for multiple individuals per species. As computing the likelihood of a phylogenetic network is computationally hard, PhyloNet allows for evaluation and inference of networks using a pseudolikelihood measure. PhyloNet summarizes the results of the various analyzes and generates phylogenetic networks in the extended Newick format that is readily viewable by existing visualization software.

  7. Defense bill: Earmarking as usual

    Science.gov (United States)

    Earmarked funds in the $268 billion defense appropriations bill for fiscal year 1991 stirred congressional debate in late October. Senator Sam Nunn (D-Ga.), chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, charged that the defense bill contains questionable projects totaling tens of millions of dollars. AGU opposes legislative earmarking of money for particular institutions, maintaining that the practice prevents the best use of federal funding by circumventing competitive review. Nunn noted on the Senate floor that the appropriations bill provided specific funds for cited institutions—contravening a federal law promoting competition. “ If these programs have merit, they will succeed in a fair and competent review in competition,” Nunn said. “If no other institution in the country is able to compete, there should be no fear whatever of competition… But no one else in the world is allowed to compete to work on these projects.”

  8. Goal inferences about robot behavior : goal inferences and human response behaviors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Broers, H.A.T.; Ham, J.R.C.; Broeders, R.; De Silva, P.; Okada, M.

    2014-01-01

    This explorative research focused on the goal inferences human observers draw based on a robot's behavior, and the extent to which those inferences predict people's behavior in response to that robot. Results show that different robot behaviors cause different response behavior from people.

  9. Cyber Defense: An International View

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-01

    and Mathematics at the Royal Institute of Tech- nology, Stockholm, Sweden; and Otto von Guericke University, Magdeburg , Germany . viii ix SUMMARY...and analysis to influence policy debate and bridge the gap between military and academia. The Center for Strategic Leadership and Development...provide an overview of four different national approaches to cyber defense: those of Nor- way, Estonia, Germany , and Sweden. While provid- ing a

  10. Defense Programs Transportation Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clauss, D.B.

    1994-01-01

    This paper provides an overview of the methodology used in a probabilistic transportation risk assessment conducted to assess the probabilities and consequences of inadvertent dispersal of radioactive materials arising from severe transportation accidents. The model was developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA) study. The analysis incorporates several enhancements relative to previous risk assessments of hazardous materials transportation including newly-developed statistics on the frequencies and severities of tractor semitrailer accidents and detailed route characterization using the 1990 Census data

  11. Using Alien Coins to Test Whether Simple Inference Is Bayesian

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassey, Peter; Hawkins, Guy E.; Donkin, Chris; Brown, Scott D.

    2016-01-01

    Reasoning and inference are well-studied aspects of basic cognition that have been explained as statistically optimal Bayesian inference. Using a simplified experimental design, we conducted quantitative comparisons between Bayesian inference and human inference at the level of individuals. In 3 experiments, with more than 13,000 participants, we…

  12. Alpha synchronization as a brain model for unconscious defense: An overview of the work of Howard Shevrin and his team.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bazan, Ariane

    2017-10-01

    Howard Shevrin and his team have developed a stringent subliminal priming methodology, which experimentally approximates a situation of an internal, mental triggering of unconscious defense. Through a series of four studies they thus are able to bring evidence for this type of unconscious defense. With event-related potentials, three clinical studies show how synchronization of a specific brain wave, the alpha wave, known for its inhibitory function, is also induced by subliminally presented conflictual subject-specific stimuli. Therefore, alpha synchronization could serve as the brain mechanism of unconscious defense. The results only make sense if we suppose the existence of a dynamic unconscious, which has inherited childhood conflicts, and with privileged connections to neurotic symptom characteristics. Moreover, by showing that the unconscious conflict phrases, inferred by clinicians from clinical interviews, have a similar brain behavior, Shevrin and his team provide evidence that these inferences are not simply clinician-dependent subjective interpretations but also imply some form of independent mental reality. Finally, interpretation of the results has led us to propose two distinct physiological mechanisms for defense: one, unconscious defense, by alpha synchronization in connection with the drive derivatives, and another, repression, based on the indications of reality in connection with the ego. Copyright © 2017 Institute of Psychoanalysis.

  13. Priming of antiherbivore defensive responses in plants

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jinwon Kim; Gary W.Felton

    2013-01-01

    Defense priming is defined as increased readiness of defense induction.A growing body of literature indicates that plants (or intact parts of a plant) are primed in anticipation of impending environmental stresses,both biotic and abiotic,and upon the following stimulus,induce defenses more quickly and strongly.For instance,some plants previously exposed to herbivore-inducible plant volatiles (HIPVs) from neighboring plants under herbivore attack show faster or stronger defense activation and enhanced insect resistance when challenged with secondary insect feeding.Research on priming of antiherbivore defense has been limited to the HIPV-mediated mechanism until recently,but significant advances were made in the past three years,including non-HIPV-mediated defense priming,epigenetic modifications as the molecular mechanism of priming,and others.It is timely to consider the advances in research on defense priming in the plantinsect interactions.

  14. Defense of a space elevator

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laubscher, B. E. (Bryan E.)

    2004-01-01

    The Space Elevator (SE) represents a major paradigm shift in space access. If the SE's promise of low-cost access is to be realized, everything becomes economically more feasible to accomplish in space. In this paper we describe a defensive system of the SE. The primary scenario adopted for this analysis is the SE based on a floating platform in the ocean along the equator. A second possible scenario is the SE stationed on land (island or continent) on or near the equator. The SE will capture the imaginations of people around the world. It will become a symbol of power, capability, wealth and prestige for the country that builds it. As such, it will become a prime terrorist target. Moreover, the tremendous economic leverage afforded by the SE might motivate rogue nations to plot its destruction. Therefore, it is necessary to consider the requirements for defense of the SE. For the purposes of this paper it is assumed that the SE is to be deployed by the United States or one of its companies, and the resources of the US are available for its defense.

  15. Explanatory Preferences Shape Learning and Inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lombrozo, Tania

    2016-10-01

    Explanations play an important role in learning and inference. People often learn by seeking explanations, and they assess the viability of hypotheses by considering how well they explain the data. An emerging body of work reveals that both children and adults have strong and systematic intuitions about what constitutes a good explanation, and that these explanatory preferences have a systematic impact on explanation-based processes. In particular, people favor explanations that are simple and broad, with the consequence that engaging in explanation can shape learning and inference by leading people to seek patterns and favor hypotheses that support broad and simple explanations. Given the prevalence of explanation in everyday cognition, understanding explanation is therefore crucial to understanding learning and inference. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Fuzzy logic controller using different inference methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Z.; De Keyser, R.

    1994-01-01

    In this paper the design of fuzzy controllers by using different inference methods is introduced. Configuration of the fuzzy controllers includes a general rule-base which is a collection of fuzzy PI or PD rules, the triangular fuzzy data model and a centre of gravity defuzzification algorithm. The generalized modus ponens (GMP) is used with the minimum operator of the triangular norm. Under the sup-min inference rule, six fuzzy implication operators are employed to calculate the fuzzy look-up tables for each rule base. The performance is tested in simulated systems with MATLAB/SIMULINK. Results show the effects of using the fuzzy controllers with different inference methods and applied to different test processes

  17. Uncertainty in prediction and in inference

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hilgevoord, J.; Uffink, J.

    1991-01-01

    The concepts of uncertainty in prediction and inference are introduced and illustrated using the diffraction of light as an example. The close relationship between the concepts of uncertainty in inference and resolving power is noted. A general quantitative measure of uncertainty in inference can be obtained by means of the so-called statistical distance between probability distributions. When applied to quantum mechanics, this distance leads to a measure of the distinguishability of quantum states, which essentially is the absolute value of the matrix element between the states. The importance of this result to the quantum mechanical uncertainty principle is noted. The second part of the paper provides a derivation of the statistical distance on the basis of the so-called method of support

  18. A Learning Algorithm for Multimodal Grammar Inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Ulizia, A; Ferri, F; Grifoni, P

    2011-12-01

    The high costs of development and maintenance of multimodal grammars in integrating and understanding input in multimodal interfaces lead to the investigation of novel algorithmic solutions in automating grammar generation and in updating processes. Many algorithms for context-free grammar inference have been developed in the natural language processing literature. An extension of these algorithms toward the inference of multimodal grammars is necessary for multimodal input processing. In this paper, we propose a novel grammar inference mechanism that allows us to learn a multimodal grammar from its positive samples of multimodal sentences. The algorithm first generates the multimodal grammar that is able to parse the positive samples of sentences and, afterward, makes use of two learning operators and the minimum description length metrics in improving the grammar description and in avoiding the over-generalization problem. The experimental results highlight the acceptable performances of the algorithm proposed in this paper since it has a very high probability of parsing valid sentences.

  19. Examples in parametric inference with R

    CERN Document Server

    Dixit, Ulhas Jayram

    2016-01-01

    This book discusses examples in parametric inference with R. Combining basic theory with modern approaches, it presents the latest developments and trends in statistical inference for students who do not have an advanced mathematical and statistical background. The topics discussed in the book are fundamental and common to many fields of statistical inference and thus serve as a point of departure for in-depth study. The book is divided into eight chapters: Chapter 1 provides an overview of topics on sufficiency and completeness, while Chapter 2 briefly discusses unbiased estimation. Chapter 3 focuses on the study of moments and maximum likelihood estimators, and Chapter 4 presents bounds for the variance. In Chapter 5, topics on consistent estimator are discussed. Chapter 6 discusses Bayes, while Chapter 7 studies some more powerful tests. Lastly, Chapter 8 examines unbiased and other tests. Senior undergraduate and graduate students in statistics and mathematics, and those who have taken an introductory cou...

  20. Grammatical inference algorithms, routines and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Wieczorek, Wojciech

    2017-01-01

    This book focuses on grammatical inference, presenting classic and modern methods of grammatical inference from the perspective of practitioners. To do so, it employs the Python programming language to present all of the methods discussed. Grammatical inference is a field that lies at the intersection of multiple disciplines, with contributions from computational linguistics, pattern recognition, machine learning, computational biology, formal learning theory and many others. Though the book is largely practical, it also includes elements of learning theory, combinatorics on words, the theory of automata and formal languages, plus references to real-world problems. The listings presented here can be directly copied and pasted into other programs, thus making the book a valuable source of ready recipes for students, academic researchers, and programmers alike, as well as an inspiration for their further development.>.

  1. Statistical inference based on divergence measures

    CERN Document Server

    Pardo, Leandro

    2005-01-01

    The idea of using functionals of Information Theory, such as entropies or divergences, in statistical inference is not new. However, in spite of the fact that divergence statistics have become a very good alternative to the classical likelihood ratio test and the Pearson-type statistic in discrete models, many statisticians remain unaware of this powerful approach.Statistical Inference Based on Divergence Measures explores classical problems of statistical inference, such as estimation and hypothesis testing, on the basis of measures of entropy and divergence. The first two chapters form an overview, from a statistical perspective, of the most important measures of entropy and divergence and study their properties. The author then examines the statistical analysis of discrete multivariate data with emphasis is on problems in contingency tables and loglinear models using phi-divergence test statistics as well as minimum phi-divergence estimators. The final chapter looks at testing in general populations, prese...

  2. Improving the extraction of complex regulatory events from scientific text by using ontology-based inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kim Jung-jae

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The extraction of complex events from biomedical text is a challenging task and requires in-depth semantic analysis. Previous approaches associate lexical and syntactic resources with ontologies for the semantic analysis, but fall short in testing the benefits from the use of domain knowledge. Results We developed a system that deduces implicit events from explicitly expressed events by using inference rules that encode domain knowledge. We evaluated the system with the inference module on three tasks: First, when tested against a corpus with manually annotated events, the inference module of our system contributes 53.2% of correct extractions, but does not cause any incorrect results. Second, the system overall reproduces 33.1% of the transcription regulatory events contained in RegulonDB (up to 85.0% precision and the inference module is required for 93.8% of the reproduced events. Third, we applied the system with minimum adaptations to the identification of cell activity regulation events, confirming that the inference improves the performance of the system also on this task. Conclusions Our research shows that the inference based on domain knowledge plays a significant role in extracting complex events from text. This approach has great potential in recognizing the complex concepts of such biomedical ontologies as Gene Ontology in the literature.

  3. A human genome-wide library of local phylogeny predictions for whole-genome inference problems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schwartz Russell

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Many common inference problems in computational genetics depend on inferring aspects of the evolutionary history of a data set given a set of observed modern sequences. Detailed predictions of the full phylogenies are therefore of value in improving our ability to make further inferences about population history and sources of genetic variation. Making phylogenetic predictions on the scale needed for whole-genome analysis is, however, extremely computationally demanding. Results In order to facilitate phylogeny-based predictions on a genomic scale, we develop a library of maximum parsimony phylogenies within local regions spanning all autosomal human chromosomes based on Haplotype Map variation data. We demonstrate the utility of this library for population genetic inferences by examining a tree statistic we call 'imperfection,' which measures the reuse of variant sites within a phylogeny. This statistic is significantly predictive of recombination rate, shows additional regional and population-specific conservation, and allows us to identify outlier genes likely to have experienced unusual amounts of variation in recent human history. Conclusion Recent theoretical advances in algorithms for phylogenetic tree reconstruction have made it possible to perform large-scale inferences of local maximum parsimony phylogenies from single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP data. As results from the imperfection statistic demonstrate, phylogeny predictions encode substantial information useful for detecting genomic features and population history. This data set should serve as a platform for many kinds of inferences one may wish to make about human population history and genetic variation.

  4. Egg Production Constrains Chemical Defenses in a Neotropical Arachnid.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taís M Nazareth

    Full Text Available Female investment in large eggs increases the demand for fatty acids, which are allocated for yolk production. Since the biosynthetic pathway leading to fatty acids uses the same precursors used in the formation of polyketides, allocation trade-offs are expected to emerge. Therefore, egg production should constrain the investment in chemical defenses based on polyketides, such as benzoquinones. We tested this hypothesis using the harvestman Acutiosoma longipes, which produces large eggs and releases benzoquinones as chemical defense. We predicted that the amount of secretion released by ovigerous females (OFs would be smaller than that of non-ovigerous females (NOF. We also conducted a series of bioassays in the field and in the laboratory to test whether egg production renders OFs more vulnerable to predation. OFs produce less secretion than NOFs, which is congruent with the hypothesis that egg production constrains the investment in chemical defenses. Results of the bioassays show that the secretion released by OFs is less effective in deterring potential predators (ants and spiders than the secretion released by NOFs. In conclusion, females allocate resources to chemical defenses in a way that preserves a primary biological function related to reproduction. However, the trade-off between egg and secretion production makes OFs vulnerable to predators. We suggest that egg production is a critical moment in the life of harvestman females, representing perhaps the highest cost of reproduction in the group.

  5. The effects of incomplete protein interaction data on structural and evolutionary inferences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    de Silva, E; Thorne, T; Ingram, P

    2006-01-01

    of the inherent noise in protein interaction data. The effects of the incomplete nature of network data become very noticeable, especially for so-called network motifs. We also consider the effect of incomplete network data on functional and evolutionary inferences. Conclusion Crucially, when only small, partial...

  6. Does investment in leaf defenses drive changes in leaf economic strategy? A focus on whole-plant ontogeny.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mason, Chase M; Donovan, Lisa A

    2015-04-01

    Leaf defenses have long been studied in the context of plant growth rate, resource availability, and optimal investment theory. Likewise, one of the central modern paradigms of plant ecophysiology, the leaf economics spectrum (LES), has been extensively studied in the context of these factors across ecological scales ranging from global species data sets to temporal shifts within individuals. Despite strong physiological links between LES strategy and leaf defenses in structure, function, and resource investment, the relationship between these trait classes has not been well explored. This study investigates the relationship between leaf defenses and LES strategy across whole-plant ontogeny in three diverse Helianthus species known to exhibit dramatic ontogenetic shifts in LES strategy, focusing primarily on physical and quantitative chemical defenses. Plants were grown under controlled environmental conditions and sampled for LES and defense traits at four ontogenetic stages. Defenses were found to shift strongly with ontogeny, and to correlate strongly with LES strategy. More advanced ontogenetic stages with more conservative LES strategy leaves had higher tannin activity and toughness in all species, and higher leaf dry matter content in two of three species. Modeling results in two species support the conclusion that changes in defenses drive changes in LES strategy through ontogeny, and in one species that changes in defenses and LES strategy are likely independently driven by ontogeny. Results of this study support the hypothesis that leaf-level allocation to defenses might be an important determinant of leaf economic traits, where high investment in defenses drives a conservative LES strategy.

  7. Improved Inference of Heteroscedastic Fixed Effects Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Afshan Saeed

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Heteroscedasticity is a stern problem that distorts estimation and testing of panel data model (PDM. Arellano (1987 proposed the White (1980 estimator for PDM with heteroscedastic errors but it provides erroneous inference for the data sets including high leverage points. In this paper, our attempt is to improve heteroscedastic consistent covariance matrix estimator (HCCME for panel dataset with high leverage points. To draw robust inference for the PDM, our focus is to improve kernel bootstrap estimators, proposed by Racine and MacKinnon (2007. The Monte Carlo scheme is used for assertion of the results.

  8. Likelihood inference for unions of interacting discs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jesper; Helisova, K.

    2010-01-01

    This is probably the first paper which discusses likelihood inference for a random set using a germ-grain model, where the individual grains are unobservable, edge effects occur and other complications appear. We consider the case where the grains form a disc process modelled by a marked point...... process, where the germs are the centres and the marks are the associated radii of the discs. We propose to use a recent parametric class of interacting disc process models, where the minimal sufficient statistic depends on various geometric properties of the random set, and the density is specified......-based maximum likelihood inference and the effect of specifying different reference Poisson models....

  9. IMAGINE: Interstellar MAGnetic field INference Engine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steininger, Theo

    2018-03-01

    IMAGINE (Interstellar MAGnetic field INference Engine) performs inference on generic parametric models of the Galaxy. The modular open source framework uses highly optimized tools and technology such as the MultiNest sampler (ascl:1109.006) and the information field theory framework NIFTy (ascl:1302.013) to create an instance of the Milky Way based on a set of parameters for physical observables, using Bayesian statistics to judge the mismatch between measured data and model prediction. The flexibility of the IMAGINE framework allows for simple refitting for newly available data sets and makes state-of-the-art Bayesian methods easily accessible particularly for random components of the Galactic magnetic field.

  10. Inferring causality from noisy time series data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mønster, Dan; Fusaroli, Riccardo; Tylén, Kristian

    2016-01-01

    Convergent Cross-Mapping (CCM) has shown high potential to perform causal inference in the absence of models. We assess the strengths and weaknesses of the method by varying coupling strength and noise levels in coupled logistic maps. We find that CCM fails to infer accurate coupling strength...... and even causality direction in synchronized time-series and in the presence of intermediate coupling. We find that the presence of noise deterministically reduces the level of cross-mapping fidelity, while the convergence rate exhibits higher levels of robustness. Finally, we propose that controlled noise...

  11. Inferences of the deep solar meridional flow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Böning, Vincent G. A.

    2017-10-01

    Understanding the solar meridional flow is important for uncovering the origin of the solar activity cycle. Yet, recent helioseismic estimates of this flow have come to conflicting conclusions in deeper layers of the solar interior, i.e., at depths below about 0.9 solar radii. The aim of this thesis is to contribute to a better understanding of the deep solar meridional flow. Time-distance helioseismology is the major method for investigating this flow. In this method, travel times of waves propagating between pairs of locations on the solar surface are measured. Until now, the travel-time measurements have been modeled using the ray approximation, which assumes that waves travel along infinitely thin ray paths between these locations. In contrast, the scattering of the full wave field in the solar interior due to the flow is modeled in first order by the Born approximation. It is in general a more accurate model of the physics in the solar interior. In a first step, an existing model for calculating the sensitivity of travel-time measurements to solar interior flows using the Born approximation is extended from Cartesian to spherical geometry. The results are succesfully compared to the Cartesian ones and are tested for self-consistency. In a second step, the newly developed model is validated using an existing numerical simulation of linear wave propagation in the Sun. An inversion of artificial travel times for meridional flow shows excellent agreement for noiseless data and reproduces many features in the input flow profile in the case of noisy data. Finally, the new method is used to infer the deep meridional flow. I used Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) data that were earlier analyzed using the ray approximation and I employed the same Substractive Optimized Local Averaging (SOLA) inversion technique as in the earlier study. Using an existing formula for the covariance of travel-time measurements, it is shown that the assumption of uncorrelated errors

  12. A Systems Biology Approach to the Coordination of Defensive and Offensive Molecular Mechanisms in the Innate and Adaptive Host-Pathogen Interaction Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Chia-Chou; Chen, Bor-Sen

    2016-01-01

    Infected zebrafish coordinates defensive and offensive molecular mechanisms in response to Candida albicans infections, and invasive C. albicans coordinates corresponding molecular mechanisms to interact with the host. However, knowledge of the ensuing infection-activated signaling networks in both host and pathogen and their interspecific crosstalk during the innate and adaptive phases of the infection processes remains incomplete. In the present study, dynamic network modeling, protein interaction databases, and dual transcriptome data from zebrafish and C. albicans during infection were used to infer infection-activated host-pathogen dynamic interaction networks. The consideration of host-pathogen dynamic interaction systems as innate and adaptive loops and subsequent comparisons of inferred innate and adaptive networks indicated previously unrecognized crosstalk between known pathways and suggested roles of immunological memory in the coordination of host defensive and offensive molecular mechanisms to achieve specific and powerful defense against pathogens. Moreover, pathogens enhance intraspecific crosstalk and abrogate host apoptosis to accommodate enhanced host defense mechanisms during the adaptive phase. Accordingly, links between physiological phenomena and changes in the coordination of defensive and offensive molecular mechanisms highlight the importance of host-pathogen molecular interaction networks, and consequent inferences of the host-pathogen relationship could be translated into biomedical applications.

  13. Model averaging, optimal inference and habit formation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas H B FitzGerald

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Postulating that the brain performs approximate Bayesian inference generates principled and empirically testable models of neuronal function – the subject of much current interest in neuroscience and related disciplines. Current formulations address inference and learning under some assumed and particular model. In reality, organisms are often faced with an additional challenge – that of determining which model or models of their environment are the best for guiding behaviour. Bayesian model averaging – which says that an agent should weight the predictions of different models according to their evidence – provides a principled way to solve this problem. Importantly, because model evidence is determined by both the accuracy and complexity of the model, optimal inference requires that these be traded off against one another. This means an agent’s behaviour should show an equivalent balance. We hypothesise that Bayesian model averaging plays an important role in cognition, given that it is both optimal and realisable within a plausible neuronal architecture. We outline model averaging and how it might be implemented, and then explore a number of implications for brain and behaviour. In particular, we propose that model averaging can explain a number of apparently suboptimal phenomena within the framework of approximate (bounded Bayesian inference, focussing particularly upon the relationship between goal-directed and habitual behaviour.

  14. Efficient Bayesian inference for ARFIMA processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graves, T.; Gramacy, R. B.; Franzke, C. L. E.; Watkins, N. W.

    2015-03-01

    Many geophysical quantities, like atmospheric temperature, water levels in rivers, and wind speeds, have shown evidence of long-range dependence (LRD). LRD means that these quantities experience non-trivial temporal memory, which potentially enhances their predictability, but also hampers the detection of externally forced trends. Thus, it is important to reliably identify whether or not a system exhibits LRD. In this paper we present a modern and systematic approach to the inference of LRD. Rather than Mandelbrot's fractional Gaussian noise, we use the more flexible Autoregressive Fractional Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) model which is widely used in time series analysis, and of increasing interest in climate science. Unlike most previous work on the inference of LRD, which is frequentist in nature, we provide a systematic treatment of Bayesian inference. In particular, we provide a new approximate likelihood for efficient parameter inference, and show how nuisance parameters (e.g. short memory effects) can be integrated over in order to focus on long memory parameters, and hypothesis testing more directly. We illustrate our new methodology on the Nile water level data, with favorable comparison to the standard estimators.

  15. Campbell's and Rubin's Perspectives on Causal Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, Stephen G.; Thoemmes, Felix

    2010-01-01

    Donald Campbell's approach to causal inference (D. T. Campbell, 1957; W. R. Shadish, T. D. Cook, & D. T. Campbell, 2002) is widely used in psychology and education, whereas Donald Rubin's causal model (P. W. Holland, 1986; D. B. Rubin, 1974, 2005) is widely used in economics, statistics, medicine, and public health. Campbell's approach focuses on…

  16. Bayesian structural inference for hidden processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strelioff, Christopher C.; Crutchfield, James P.

    2014-04-01

    We introduce a Bayesian approach to discovering patterns in structurally complex processes. The proposed method of Bayesian structural inference (BSI) relies on a set of candidate unifilar hidden Markov model (uHMM) topologies for inference of process structure from a data series. We employ a recently developed exact enumeration of topological ɛ-machines. (A sequel then removes the topological restriction.) This subset of the uHMM topologies has the added benefit that inferred models are guaranteed to be ɛ-machines, irrespective of estimated transition probabilities. Properties of ɛ-machines and uHMMs allow for the derivation of analytic expressions for estimating transition probabilities, inferring start states, and comparing the posterior probability of candidate model topologies, despite process internal structure being only indirectly present in data. We demonstrate BSI's effectiveness in estimating a process's randomness, as reflected by the Shannon entropy rate, and its structure, as quantified by the statistical complexity. We also compare using the posterior distribution over candidate models and the single, maximum a posteriori model for point estimation and show that the former more accurately reflects uncertainty in estimated values. We apply BSI to in-class examples of finite- and infinite-order Markov processes, as well to an out-of-class, infinite-state hidden process.

  17. HIERARCHICAL PROBABILISTIC INFERENCE OF COSMIC SHEAR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schneider, Michael D.; Dawson, William A.; Hogg, David W.; Marshall, Philip J.; Bard, Deborah J.; Meyers, Joshua; Lang, Dustin

    2015-01-01

    Point estimators for the shearing of galaxy images induced by gravitational lensing involve a complex inverse problem in the presence of noise, pixelization, and model uncertainties. We present a probabilistic forward modeling approach to gravitational lensing inference that has the potential to mitigate the biased inferences in most common point estimators and is practical for upcoming lensing surveys. The first part of our statistical framework requires specification of a likelihood function for the pixel data in an imaging survey given parameterized models for the galaxies in the images. We derive the lensing shear posterior by marginalizing over all intrinsic galaxy properties that contribute to the pixel data (i.e., not limited to galaxy ellipticities) and learn the distributions for the intrinsic galaxy properties via hierarchical inference with a suitably flexible conditional probabilitiy distribution specification. We use importance sampling to separate the modeling of small imaging areas from the global shear inference, thereby rendering our algorithm computationally tractable for large surveys. With simple numerical examples we demonstrate the improvements in accuracy from our importance sampling approach, as well as the significance of the conditional distribution specification for the intrinsic galaxy properties when the data are generated from an unknown number of distinct galaxy populations with different morphological characteristics

  18. Interest, Inferences, and Learning from Texts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clinton, Virginia; van den Broek, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Topic interest and learning from texts have been found to be positively associated with each other. However, the reason for this positive association is not well understood. The purpose of this study is to examine a cognitive process, inference generation, that could explain the positive association between interest and learning from texts. In…

  19. Ignorability in Statistical and Probabilistic Inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jaeger, Manfred

    2005-01-01

    When dealing with incomplete data in statistical learning, or incomplete observations in probabilistic inference, one needs to distinguish the fact that a certain event is observed from the fact that the observed event has happened. Since the modeling and computational complexities entailed...

  20. Evolutionary inference via the Poisson Indel Process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouchard-Côté, Alexandre; Jordan, Michael I

    2013-01-22

    We address the problem of the joint statistical inference of phylogenetic trees and multiple sequence alignments from unaligned molecular sequences. This problem is generally formulated in terms of string-valued evolutionary processes along the branches of a phylogenetic tree. The classic evolutionary process, the TKF91 model [Thorne JL, Kishino H, Felsenstein J (1991) J Mol Evol 33(2):114-124] is a continuous-time Markov chain model composed of insertion, deletion, and substitution events. Unfortunately, this model gives rise to an intractable computational problem: The computation of the marginal likelihood under the TKF91 model is exponential in the number of taxa. In this work, we present a stochastic process, the Poisson Indel Process (PIP), in which the complexity of this computation is reduced to linear. The Poisson Indel Process is closely related to the TKF91 model, differing only in its treatment of insertions, but it has a global characterization as a Poisson process on the phylogeny. Standard results for Poisson processes allow key computations to be decoupled, which yields the favorable computational profile of inference under the PIP model. We present illustrative experiments in which Bayesian inference under the PIP model is compared with separate inference of phylogenies and alignments.

  1. Culture and Pragmatic Inference in Interpersonal Communication

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    cognitive process, and that the human capacity for inference is crucially important ... been noted that research in interpersonal communication is currently pushing the ... communicative actions, the social-cultural world of everyday life is not only ... personal experiences of the authors', as documented over time and recreated ...

  2. Inference and the Introductory Statistics Course

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfannkuch, Maxine; Regan, Matt; Wild, Chris; Budgett, Stephanie; Forbes, Sharleen; Harraway, John; Parsonage, Ross

    2011-01-01

    This article sets out some of the rationale and arguments for making major changes to the teaching and learning of statistical inference in introductory courses at our universities by changing from a norm-based, mathematical approach to more conceptually accessible computer-based approaches. The core problem of the inferential argument with its…

  3. Statistical Inference on the Canadian Middle Class

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Russell Davidson

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Conventional wisdom says that the middle classes in many developed countries have recently suffered losses, in terms of both the share of the total population belonging to the middle class, and also their share in total income. Here, distribution-free methods are developed for inference on these shares, by means of deriving expressions for their asymptotic variances of sample estimates, and the covariance of the estimates. Asymptotic inference can be undertaken based on asymptotic normality. Bootstrap inference can be expected to be more reliable, and appropriate bootstrap procedures are proposed. As an illustration, samples of individual earnings drawn from Canadian census data are used to test various hypotheses about the middle-class shares, and confidence intervals for them are computed. It is found that, for the earlier censuses, sample sizes are large enough for asymptotic and bootstrap inference to be almost identical, but that, in the twenty-first century, the bootstrap fails on account of a strange phenomenon whereby many presumably different incomes in the data are rounded to one and the same value. Another difference between the centuries is the appearance of heavy right-hand tails in the income distributions of both men and women.

  4. Spurious correlations and inference in landscape genetics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samuel A. Cushman; Erin L. Landguth

    2010-01-01

    Reliable interpretation of landscape genetic analyses depends on statistical methods that have high power to identify the correct process driving gene flow while rejecting incorrect alternative hypotheses. Little is known about statistical power and inference in individual-based landscape genetics. Our objective was to evaluate the power of causalmodelling with partial...

  5. Cortical information flow during inferences of agency

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dogge, Myrthel; Hofman, Dennis; Boersma, Maria; Dijkerman, H Chris; Aarts, Henk

    2014-01-01

    Building on the recent finding that agency experiences do not merely rely on sensorimotor information but also on cognitive cues, this exploratory study uses electroencephalographic recordings to examine functional connectivity during agency inference processing in a setting where action and outcome

  6. Quasi-Experimental Designs for Causal Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Yongnam; Steiner, Peter

    2016-01-01

    When randomized experiments are infeasible, quasi-experimental designs can be exploited to evaluate causal treatment effects. The strongest quasi-experimental designs for causal inference are regression discontinuity designs, instrumental variable designs, matching and propensity score designs, and comparative interrupted time series designs. This…

  7. The importance of learning when making inferences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorg Rieskamp

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available The assumption that people possess a repertoire of strategies to solve the inference problems they face has been made repeatedly. The experimental findings of two previous studies on strategy selection are reexamined from a learning perspective, which argues that people learn to select strategies for making probabilistic inferences. This learning process is modeled with the strategy selection learning (SSL theory, which assumes that people develop subjective expectancies for the strategies they have. They select strategies proportional to their expectancies, which are updated on the basis of experience. For the study by Newell, Weston, and Shanks (2003 it can be shown that people did not anticipate the success of a strategy from the beginning of the experiment. Instead, the behavior observed at the end of the experiment was the result of a learning process that can be described by the SSL theory. For the second study, by Br"oder and Schiffer (2006, the SSL theory is able to provide an explanation for why participants only slowly adapted to new environments in a dynamic inference situation. The reanalysis of the previous studies illustrates the importance of learning for probabilistic inferences.

  8. Colligation, Or the Logical Inference of Interconnection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Falster, Peter

    1998-01-01

    laws or assumptions. Yet interconnection as an abstract concept seems to be without scientific underpinning in pure logic. Adopting a historical viewpoint, our aim is to show that the reasoning of interconnection may be identified with a neglected kind of logical inference, called "colligation...

  9. Colligation or, The Logical Inference of Interconnection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Franksen, Ole Immanuel; Falster, Peter

    2000-01-01

    laws or assumptions. Yet interconnection as an abstract concept seems to be without scientific underpinning in oure logic. Adopting a historical viewpoint, our aim is to show that the reasoning of interconnection may be identified with a neglected kind of logical inference, called "colligation...

  10. Inferring motion and location using WLAN RSSI

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kavitha Muthukrishnan, K.; van der Zwaag, B.J.; Havinga, Paul J.M.; Fuller, R.; Koutsoukos, X.

    2009-01-01

    We present novel algorithms to infer movement by making use of inherent fluctuations in the received signal strengths from existing WLAN infrastructure. We evaluate the performance of the presented algorithms based on classification metrics such as recall and precision using annotated traces

  11. PAnalyzer: A software tool for protein inference in shotgun proteomics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prieto Gorka

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Protein inference from peptide identifications in shotgun proteomics must deal with ambiguities that arise due to the presence of peptides shared between different proteins, which is common in higher eukaryotes. Recently data independent acquisition (DIA approaches have emerged as an alternative to the traditional data dependent acquisition (DDA in shotgun proteomics experiments. MSE is the term used to name one of the DIA approaches used in QTOF instruments. MSE data require specialized software to process acquired spectra and to perform peptide and protein identifications. However the software available at the moment does not group the identified proteins in a transparent way by taking into account peptide evidence categories. Furthermore the inspection, comparison and report of the obtained results require tedious manual intervention. Here we report a software tool to address these limitations for MSE data. Results In this paper we present PAnalyzer, a software tool focused on the protein inference process of shotgun proteomics. Our approach considers all the identified proteins and groups them when necessary indicating their confidence using different evidence categories. PAnalyzer can read protein identification files in the XML output format of the ProteinLynx Global Server (PLGS software provided by Waters Corporation for their MSE data, and also in the mzIdentML format recently standardized by HUPO-PSI. Multiple files can also be read simultaneously and are considered as technical replicates. Results are saved to CSV, HTML and mzIdentML (in the case of a single mzIdentML input file files. An MSE analysis of a real sample is presented to compare the results of PAnalyzer and ProteinLynx Global Server. Conclusions We present a software tool to deal with the ambiguities that arise in the protein inference process. Key contributions are support for MSE data analysis by ProteinLynx Global Server and technical replicates

  12. Malpractice liability and defensive medicine: a national survey of neurosurgeons.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian V Nahed

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Concern over rising healthcare expenditures has led to increased scrutiny of medical practices. As medical liability and malpractice risk rise to crisis levels, the medical-legal environment has contributed to the practice of defensive medicine as practitioners attempt to mitigate liability risk. High-risk specialties, such as neurosurgery, are particularly affected and neurosurgeons have altered their practices to lessen medical-legal risk. We present the first national survey of American neurosurgeons' perceptions of malpractice liability and defensive medicine practices. METHODS: A validated, 51-question online-survey was sent to 3344 practicing U.S. neurosurgeon members of the American Association of Neurological Surgeons, which represents 76% of neurosurgeons in academic and private practices. RESULTS: A total of 1028 surveys were completed (31% response rate by neurosurgeons representing diverse sub-specialty practices. Respondents engaged in defensive medicine practices by ordering additional imaging studies (72%, laboratory tests (67%, referring patients to consultants (66%, or prescribing medications (40%. Malpractice premiums were considered a "major or extreme" burden by 64% of respondents which resulted in 45% of respondents eliminating high-risk procedures from their practice due to liability concerns. CONCLUSIONS: Concerns and perceptions about medical liability lead practitioners to practice defensive medicine. As a result, diagnostic testing, consultations and imaging studies are ordered to satisfy a perceived legal risk, resulting in higher healthcare expenditures. To minimize malpractice risk, some neurosurgeons have eliminated high-risk procedures. Left unchecked, concerns over medical liability will further defensive medicine practices, limit patient access to care, and increase the cost of healthcare delivery in the United States.

  13. Active inference, sensory attenuation and illusions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Harriet; Adams, Rick A; Parees, Isabel; Edwards, Mark; Friston, Karl

    2013-11-01

    Active inference provides a simple and neurobiologically plausible account of how action and perception are coupled in producing (Bayes) optimal behaviour. This can be seen most easily as minimising prediction error: we can either change our predictions to explain sensory input through perception. Alternatively, we can actively change sensory input to fulfil our predictions. In active inference, this action is mediated by classical reflex arcs that minimise proprioceptive prediction error created by descending proprioceptive predictions. However, this creates a conflict between action and perception; in that, self-generated movements require predictions to override the sensory evidence that one is not actually moving. However, ignoring sensory evidence means that externally generated sensations will not be perceived. Conversely, attending to (proprioceptive and somatosensory) sensations enables the detection of externally generated events but precludes generation of actions. This conflict can be resolved by attenuating the precision of sensory evidence during movement or, equivalently, attending away from the consequences of self-made acts. We propose that this Bayes optimal withdrawal of precise sensory evidence during movement is the cause of psychophysical sensory attenuation. Furthermore, it explains the force-matching illusion and reproduces empirical results almost exactly. Finally, if attenuation is removed, the force-matching illusion disappears and false (delusional) inferences about agency emerge. This is important, given the negative correlation between sensory attenuation and delusional beliefs in normal subjects--and the reduction in the magnitude of the illusion in schizophrenia. Active inference therefore links the neuromodulatory optimisation of precision to sensory attenuation and illusory phenomena during the attribution of agency in normal subjects. It also provides a functional account of deficits in syndromes characterised by false inference

  14. SQL Injection Attacks and Defense

    CERN Document Server

    Clarke, Justin

    2012-01-01

    SQL Injection Attacks and Defense, First Edition: Winner of the Best Book Bejtlich Read Award "SQL injection is probably the number one problem for any server-side application, and this book unequaled in its coverage." -Richard Bejtlich, Tao Security blog SQL injection represents one of the most dangerous and well-known, yet misunderstood, security vulnerabilities on the Internet, largely because there is no central repository of information available for penetration testers, IT security consultants and practitioners, and web/software developers to turn to for help. SQL Injection Att

  15. Territorial Defense, Education, and Interculturalism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Patricia Sierra Pardo

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available The article carries out a series of reflections regarding the social and economic conditions in which the cultivation of oil palm affected the Bajo Atrato region of the Department of Chocó at the end of the nineteen nineties. It also discusses the actions carried out by communities, companies, and organizations in solidarity with the region’s cause, since these expressions make it possible to understand the role of organization and education in territorial defense processes. Finally, the article examines the different tensions, struggles, challenges, and contradictions inherent to these types of processes.

  16. Disposal of Hanford defense waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holten, R.A.; Burnham, J.B.; Nelson, I.C.

    1986-01-01

    An Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) on the disposal of Hanford Defense Waste is scheduled to be released near the end of March, 1986. This EIS will evaluate the impacts of alternatives for disposal of high-level, tank, and transuranic wastes which are now stored at the Department of Energy's Hanford Site or will be produced there in the future. In addition to releasing the EIS, the Department of Energy is conducting an extensive public participation process aimed at providing information to the public and receiving comments on the EIS

  17. Defensive medicine among obstetricians and gynecologists in tertiary hospitals.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elad Asher

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To describe the daily work practice under the threat of defensive medicine among obstetricians and gynecologists. STUDY DESIGN: A prospective cross-sectional survey of obstetricians and gynecologists working at tertiary medical centers in Israel. RESULTS: Among the 117 obstetricians and gynecologists who participated in the survey, representing 10% of the obstetricians and gynecologists registered by the Israel Medical Association, 113 (97% felt that their daily work practice is influenced by concern about being sued for medical negligence and not only by genuine medical considerations. As a result, 102 (87% physicians are more likely to offer the cesarean section option, even in the absence of a clear medical indication, 70 (60% follow court rulings concerning medical practices, and 85 (73% physicians mentioned that discussions about medical negligence court rulings are included in their departments' meetings. CONCLUSIONS: Defensive medicine is a well-embedded phenomenon affecting the medical decision process of obstetricians and gynecologists.

  18. THE DEFENSE PLANNING SYSTEMS AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laszlo STICZ

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Defense planning in the Alliance is a fundamental element of the arrangements which enable its member countries to enjoy the crucial political, military and resource advantages of collective defense and other common military efforts to enhance security and stability. In this respect, the aim of this paper is to outline the role of the Armed Forces and the specific processes aiming to achieve the ultimate goal of a nation regarding national security, with focus on defense planning and the PDPS.

  19. Student Papers on Strategic Defense Initiative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1985-01-01

    895. 3. "Scientific Canvas" AWST, p. 19. 4. Halliday, p. 548. 5. William Shiner, Lasers (New York: Mc Graw -Hill, 1980), p. 21. - 30...and Design. New York: Mc Graw -Hill, 1980. U.S. Department of Defense. The Strategic Defense Ini- tiative: Defensive Technologies Study. Washington...Armageddon," Armed Forces Journal, February 1983, p. 30. 7. David Baker, The Shape of Wars to Come (Cambridge: Patrick Stephens , Ltd, 1981), p. 109

  20. Defense Transuranic Waste Program Strategy Document

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-01-01

    The Defense Transuranic Waste Program (DTWP) Strategy Document presents the general strategy for managing transuranic (TRU) waste materials generated during defense and research activities regulated by the US Department of Energy. The Strategy Document includes discussion of objectives and activities relating to the entire Defense Transuranic Waste Program. However, the primary focus is on the specific management responsibilities of the Transuranic Waste Lead Organization (TLO). The document also includes an updated summary of progress on TLO-managed activities over the past year

  1. Status of DOE defense waste management policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oertel, K.G.; Scott, R.S.

    1983-01-01

    This paper very briefly traces the statutory basis for DOE management of atomic energy defense activity wastes, touches on the authority of the Federal agencies involved in the regulation of defense nuclear waste management, and addresses the applicable regulations and their status. This background sets the stage for a fairly detailed discussion of management and disposal strategies of the Defense Waste and Byproducts Management Program

  2. Active Computer Network Defense: An Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2001-04-01

    sufficient base of knowledge in information technology can be assumed to be working on some form of computer network warfare, even if only defensive in...the Defense Information Infrastructure (DII) to attack. Transmission Control Protocol/ Internet Protocol (TCP/IP) networks are inherently resistant to...aims to create this part of information superiority, and computer network defense is one of its fundamental components. Most of these efforts center

  3. Trade Costs, Conflicts, and Defense Spending

    OpenAIRE

    Seitz, Michael; Tarasov, Alexander; Zakharenko, Roman

    2013-01-01

    This paper develops a quantitative model of trade, military conflicts, and defense spending. Trade liberalization between two countries reduces probability of an armed conflict between them, causing both to cut defense spending. This in turn causes a domino effect on defense spending by other countries. As a result, both countries and the rest of the world are better off. We estimate the model using data on trade, conflicts, and military spending. We find that, after reduction of costs of tra...

  4. Comparison of evolutionary algorithms in gene regulatory network model inference.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    2010-01-01

    ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: The evolution of high throughput technologies that measure gene expression levels has created a data base for inferring GRNs (a process also known as reverse engineering of GRNs). However, the nature of these data has made this process very difficult. At the moment, several methods of discovering qualitative causal relationships between genes with high accuracy from microarray data exist, but large scale quantitative analysis on real biological datasets cannot be performed, to date, as existing approaches are not suitable for real microarray data which are noisy and insufficient. RESULTS: This paper performs an analysis of several existing evolutionary algorithms for quantitative gene regulatory network modelling. The aim is to present the techniques used and offer a comprehensive comparison of approaches, under a common framework. Algorithms are applied to both synthetic and real gene expression data from DNA microarrays, and ability to reproduce biological behaviour, scalability and robustness to noise are assessed and compared. CONCLUSIONS: Presented is a comparison framework for assessment of evolutionary algorithms, used to infer gene regulatory networks. Promising methods are identified and a platform for development of appropriate model formalisms is established.

  5. Plausible inference: A multi-valued logic for problem solving

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedman, L.

    1979-01-01

    A new logic is developed which permits continuously variable strength of belief in the truth of assertions. Four inference rules result, with formal logic as a limiting case. Quantification of belief is defined. Propagation of belief to linked assertions results from dependency-based techniques of truth maintenance so that local consistency is achieved or contradiction discovered in problem solving. Rules for combining, confirming, or disconfirming beliefs are given, and several heuristics are suggested that apply to revising already formed beliefs in the light of new evidence. The strength of belief that results in such revisions based on conflicting evidence are a highly subjective phenomenon. Certain quantification rules appear to reflect an orderliness in the subjectivity. Several examples of reasoning by plausible inference are given, including a legal example and one from robot learning. Propagation of belief takes place in directions forbidden in formal logic and this results in conclusions becoming possible for a given set of assertions that are not reachable by formal logic.

  6. Inferring relationships between pairs of individuals from locus heterozygosities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Spinetti Isabella

    2002-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The traditional exact method for inferring relationships between individuals from genetic data is not easily applicable in all situations that may be encountered in several fields of applied genetics. This study describes an approach that gives affordable results and is easily applicable; it is based on the probabilities that two individuals share 0, 1 or both alleles at a locus identical by state. Results We show that these probabilities (zi depend on locus heterozygosity (H, and are scarcely affected by variation of the distribution of allele frequencies. This allows us to obtain empirical curves relating zi's to H for a series of common relationships, so that the likelihood ratio of a pair of relationships between any two individuals, given their genotypes at a locus, is a function of a single parameter, H. Application to large samples of mother-child and full-sib pairs shows that the statistical power of this method to infer the correct relationship is not much lower than the exact method. Analysis of a large database of STR data proves that locus heterozygosity does not vary significantly among Caucasian populations, apart from special cases, so that the likelihood ratio of the more common relationships between pairs of individuals may be obtained by looking at tabulated zi values. Conclusions A simple method is provided, which may be used by any scientist with the help of a calculator or a spreadsheet to compute the likelihood ratios of common alternative relationships between pairs of individuals.

  7. G. F. Parrot and the theory of unconscious inferences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allik, Jüri; Konstabel, Kenn

    2005-01-01

    In 1839, Georg Friedrich Parrot (1767-1852) published a short note about a peculiar visual phenomenon--the diminishing of the size of external objects situated at a relatively small distance from the window of a fast-moving train. For the explanation of this illusion, Parrot proposed a concept of unconscious inferences, a very rapid syllogistic conclusion from two premises, which anticipated the revival of Alhazen's theory of unconscious inferences by Hermann von Helmholtz, Wilhelm Wundt, and John Stuart Mill. He also advanced the notion that the speed of mental processes is not infinitely high and that it can be measured by means of systematic experimentation. Although Parrot was only partly correct in the description of the movement-induced changes of the perceived size, his general intention to understand basic mechanisms of the human mind was in harmony with the founding ideas of experimental psychology: it is possible to study the phenomena of the mind in the same general way that the physical world is studied, either in terms of mechanical or mathematical laws. 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  8. Post-model selection inference and model averaging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georges Nguefack-Tsague

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Although model selection is routinely used in practice nowadays, little is known about its precise effects on any subsequent inference that is carried out. The same goes for the effects induced by the closely related technique of model averaging. This paper is concerned with the use of the same data first to select a model and then to carry out inference, in particular point estimation and point prediction. The properties of the resulting estimator, called a post-model-selection estimator (PMSE, are hard to derive. Using selection criteria such as hypothesis testing, AIC, BIC, HQ and Cp, we illustrate that, in terms of risk function, no single PMSE dominates the others. The same conclusion holds more generally for any penalised likelihood information criterion. We also compare various model averaging schemes and show that no single one dominates the others in terms of risk function. Since PMSEs can be regarded as a special case of model averaging, with 0-1 random-weights, we propose a connection between the two theories, in the frequentist approach, by taking account of the selection procedure when performing model averaging. We illustrate the point by simulating a simple linear regression model.

  9. Gulf War Illnesses: DOD's Conclusions about U.S. Troops' Exposure Cannot Be Adequately Supported

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Rhodes, Keith

    2004-01-01

    ... (MOD) conclusions about troops' exposure. The GAO found that DoD's and MOD's conclusions about troops' exposure to CW agents, based on DoD and CIA plume modeling, cannot be adequately supported...

  10. SELF-DEFENSE IN KARABAKH CONFLICT?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saeed Bagheri

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Use of force is one of the principles of international law which has been banned by the UN Charter and modern constitutions. However, since the enforcement of the UN Charter, self-defense has become the preferred excuse for states to justify their use of force. But applying self-defense requires some conditions. Immediacy is one of the important conditions of self-defense. Immediacy defined as the time span between armed attacks and reaction to it, is the main discourse. This condition requires self defense immediately after the armed conflict or during a rational time span since its occurance.In this respect, the emerging Karabakh Conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the 1990s is important. After Armenia’s armed attacks, Azerbaijan has acted within the scope of legitimate self-defense. But in accordance with UN Security Council cease-fire resolution Azerbaijan has suspended its self-defense actions. However, today, still twenty percent of Azerbaijani territory is still under Armenian occupation. Accordingly, after a long time the validity of Azerbaijan’s right to legitimate self-defense is still subject to arguments.In this article, by comparing two different approaches (strict and board interpretation approaches on the temporal link between the measures of self-defense and the armed attacks (immediacy, the temporal link between the self-defense countermeasures of Azerbaijan and armed attacks by Armenia in Karabakh Conflict will be examined.

  11. Variation in plant defense suppresses herbivore performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearse, Ian; Paul, Ryan; Ode, Paul J.

    2018-01-01

    Defensive variability of crops and natural systems can alter herbivore communities and reduce herbivory. However, it is still unknown how defense variability translates into herbivore suppression. Nonlinear averaging and constraints in physiological tracking (also more generally called time-dependent effects) are the two mechanisms by which defense variability might impact herbivores. We conducted a set of experiments manipulating the mean and variability of a plant defense, showing that defense variability does suppress herbivore performance and that it does so through physiological tracking effects that cannot be explained by nonlinear averaging. While nonlinear averaging predicted higher or the same herbivore performance on a variable defense than on an invariable defense, we show that variability actually decreased herbivore performance and population growth rate. Defense variability reduces herbivore performance in a way that is more than the average of its parts. This is consistent with constraints in physiological matching of detoxification systems for herbivores experiencing variable toxin levels in their diet and represents a more generalizable way of understanding the impacts of variability on herbivory. Increasing defense variability in croplands at a scale encountered by individual herbivores can suppress herbivory, even if that is not anticipated by nonlinear averaging.

  12. Defense Business Operations Fund Inventory Record Accuracy

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    1998-01-01

    .... The overall objective of the audit was to determine whether inventory amounts on the FY 1996 Defense Business Operations Fund Consolidated Financial Statements were presented fairly in accordance...

  13. Defense Agency Travel Payments at Defense Finance and Accounting Service Indianapolis Center

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    1997-01-01

    The audit objective was to assess the effectiveness of Defense Finance and Accounting Service Indianapolis Center management controls over payments to Defense agency personnel for temporary duty and local travel...

  14. Report to the Congressional Defense Committees: Status of the Department of Defense's Business Transformation Efforts

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2008-01-01

    ...). It directs the Secretary of Defense to provide the Congressional Defense Committees with an annual report on the Department's business transformation efforts and compliance with the requirements of the law...

  15. Move Analysis of the Conclusion Sections of Research Papers in Persian and English

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zamani, Gerannaz; Ebadi, Saman

    2016-01-01

    The structure of the conclusion sections in Research Papers (RPs) is of significance in academic writing. The conclusion section in spite of providing an outline of the article, states other essential components, such as recommendations, implications and statements of possible lines of future research. This paper analyses the conclusion parts of…

  16. Contribution to the improvement of management in defense logistics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Srđan D. Ljubojević

    2013-12-01

    improving management in the defense, especially in its logistics, through greater synergy in action, with the least consumption of resources while maintaining or even expanding the system capability („Smart defense” concept, „Pool and share” concept, organizational changes in the field of logistics - the set up Joint Logistic Support Groups, etc.. Understanding and implementing these reforms require a special attitude towards the environment and circumstances in which management decisions are made. Logistical and „nonlogistical” management in the defense needs a broader approach to problems, which will provide them consideration of all the consequences that their decisions can have, not only in the defense, but to all stakeholders, especially end-users of services of the defense system - a society or citizens (civilians and citizens in uniform. Management in the defense system often focuses only on one aspect of the final desired state while ignoring its other aspects or impacts on the wider system, the social environment or the state. In fact, it often tends to minimize the costs of defense, regardless of the implications that arise in the field of defense capabilities and levels of security, particularly „in the long run”. Some of the basic principles of good governance in the defense logistics would be: legality, transparency, responsibility, discipline, cooperation and partnership, continuous improvement and others. As a part of planned and organized work to improve management in defense logistics (analogy applies to the defense system as a whole, special attention should be focused on creating a concept that promotes proper selection, choice, education, training, motivation and development of managers among the most competent, the most educated and the most experienced personnel.   Conclusion   Changes in governance in the public sector, more or less, affect all its segments. Given that the budget allocation for defense is rather high and the defense

  17. For a NATO defensive deterrent

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smoke, R.

    1988-01-01

    This paper proposes that NATO should adopt, in a gradual and orderly fashion, a grand strategy and accompanying posture distinctly different from its present one. The strategy the author recommends has variously been termed non-provocative defence, defence-only defence, or defensive deterrence, employs the latter term here. By it the author means a militarily sound strategy relying solely on conventional weapons so long as the enemy uses only conventional weapons, and a posture that is unambiguously capable only of defence. Secure, second-strike nuclear forces would be retained for deterrence of any nuclear use by the opponent. This goal is consistent with the goal stated in Frank Barnaby's companion paper in this volume; here however the author lays the emphasis on political and politico-military rationales for a defensive deterrent. The paper begins with two brief arguments why a shift in NATO strategy is needed, advances some distinctions among the possible alternatives, and then presents some seven rationales for its recommended policy

  18. Verification of excess defense material

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fearey, B.L.; Pilat, J.F.; Eccleston, G.W.; Nicholas, N.J.; Tape, J.W.

    1997-01-01

    The international community in the post-Cold War period has expressed an interest in the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) using its expertise in support of the arms control and disarmament process in unprecedented ways. The pledges of the US and Russian presidents to place excess defense materials under some type of international inspections raises the prospect of using IAEA safeguards approaches for monitoring excess materials, which include both classified and unclassified materials. Although the IAEA has suggested the need to address inspections of both types of materials, the most troublesome and potentially difficult problems involve approaches to the inspection of classified materials. The key issue for placing classified nuclear components and materials under IAEA safeguards is the conflict between these traditional IAEA materials accounting procedures and the US classification laws and nonproliferation policy designed to prevent the disclosure of critical weapon-design information. Possible verification approaches to classified excess defense materials could be based on item accountancy, attributes measurements, and containment and surveillance. Such approaches are not wholly new; in fact, they are quite well established for certain unclassified materials. Such concepts may be applicable to classified items, but the precise approaches have yet to be identified, fully tested, or evaluated for technical and political feasibility, or for their possible acceptability in an international inspection regime. Substantial work remains in these areas. This paper examines many of the challenges presented by international inspections of classified materials

  19. Other Defense Organizations and Defense Finance and Accounting Service Controls Over High-Risk Transactions Were Not Effective

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-03-28

    Defense Organizations and Defense Finance and Accounting Service Controls Over High-Risk Transactions Were Not Effective M A R C H 2 8 , 2 0 1 6...Defense Organizations and Defense Finance and Accounting Service Controls Over High-Risk Transactions Were Not Effective Visit us at www.dodig.mil... FINANCE AND ACCOUNTING SERVICE DIRECTOR, DEFENSE HEALTH AGENCY SUBJECT: Other Defense Organizations and Defense Finance and Accounting Service

  20. The US-Russia missile defense dialogue as a factor of the Russian defense policy

    OpenAIRE

    Dmitry Suslov

    2013-01-01

    To a big extent the Russian defense policy and, as a consequence, development of the Russian defense industrial complex, is determined by the prospects of the US missile defense policy and fate of the US-Russia negotiations in this area. As a cooperative solution seems improbable in the observable future, Russia plans to develop certain response measures of military nature, including creation of a new heavy ICBM, and to create its own missile defense by 2015. However, this policy does not see...

  1. Comparative study of discretization methods of microarray data for inferring transcriptional regulatory networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ji Wei

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Microarray data discretization is a basic preprocess for many algorithms of gene regulatory network inference. Some common discretization methods in informatics are used to discretize microarray data. Selection of the discretization method is often arbitrary and no systematic comparison of different discretization has been conducted, in the context of gene regulatory network inference from time series gene expression data. Results In this study, we propose a new discretization method "bikmeans", and compare its performance with four other widely-used discretization methods using different datasets, modeling algorithms and number of intervals. Sensitivities, specificities and total accuracies were calculated and statistical analysis was carried out. Bikmeans method always gave high total accuracies. Conclusions Our results indicate that proper discretization methods can consistently improve gene regulatory network inference independent of network modeling algorithms and datasets. Our new method, bikmeans, resulted in significant better total accuracies than other methods.

  2. Conclusiveness of the Cochrane reviews in gynaecological cancer: A systematic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Shande; Chuai, Yunhai; Wang, Aiming; Zhang, Lanmei

    2015-06-01

    To assess the conclusiveness of Cochrane reviews in the field of gynaecological cancer. The Cochrane Library was searched for reviews regarding gynaecological cancer published between 1 January 2000 and 1 November 2014. Data were extracted from each paper and the conclusiveness of each review was assessed. The study included 66 reviews, 41 (62.1%) of which were conclusive. Of these, 58 included randomized controlled trials (RCTs), 37 (63.8%) of which were conclusive. Conclusive reviews of RCTs included significantly more patients than inconclusive reviews, but there was no difference in the number of included studies. Of the eight reviews of nonrandomized studies, four (50.0%) were conclusive. The majority of reviews recognized the need for additional studies. In the field of gynaecological cancer, reviews are more likely to be conclusive when they include RCTs, as well as large numbers of patients. © The Author(s) 2015 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

  3. Strategic Defense Initiative: Splendid Defense or Pipe Dream? Headline Series No. 275.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armstrong, Scott; Grier, Peter

    This pamphlet presents a discussion of the various components of President Reagan's Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) including the problem of pulling together various new technologies into an effective defensive system and the politics of the so-called "star wars" system. An important part of the defense initiative is the…

  4. Inferring the demographic history of European Ficedula flycatcher populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Backström Niclas

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Inference of population and species histories and population stratification using genetic data is important for discriminating between different speciation scenarios and for correct interpretation of genome scans for signs of adaptive evolution and trait association. Here we use data from 24 intronic loci re-sequenced in population samples of two closely related species, the pied flycatcher and the collared flycatcher. Results We applied Isolation-Migration models, assignment analyses and estimated the genetic differentiation and diversity between species and between populations within species. The data indicate a divergence time between the species of Conclusions Our results provide further evidence for a divergence process where different genomic regions may be at different stages of speciation. We also conclude that forthcoming analyses of genotype-phenotype relations in these ecological model species should be designed to take population stratification into account.

  5. MENENTUKAN PENERIMA KPS MENGGUNAKAN FUZZY INFERENCE SYSTEM METODE TSUKAMOTO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sugianti .

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Social assistance programs launched by the Government, in particular the first Cluster program got more attention from the citizens of society. In order to reach out  the objectivity and efficiency, determining of  recipient households assistance program, we need a decision support system that allows the authorities villages / wards in decision making. In this study constructed a prototype system to define the  poor household who receivet KPS using Fuzzy Inference System Tsukamoto method using 14 BPS’s criterias poverty. As the output of the system are a score of household, status on aid, and the number of villages / wards. The conclusion obtained in this study is the system can be run in accordance with the parameters specified poverty, able to adjust the poverty conditions of different regions poverty index.

  6. Haplotype inference in general pedigrees with two sites

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Doan Duong D

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Genetic disease studies investigate relationships between changes in chromosomes and genetic diseases. Single haplotypes provide useful information for these studies but extracting single haplotypes directly by biochemical methods is expensive. A computational method to infer haplotypes from genotype data is therefore important. We investigate the problem of computing the minimum number of recombination events for general pedigrees with two sites for all members. Results We show that this NP-hard problem can be parametrically reduced to the Bipartization by Edge Removal problem and therefore can be solved by an O(2k · n2 exact algorithm, where n is the number of members and k is the number of recombination events. Conclusions Our work can therefore be useful for genetic disease studies to track down how changes in haplotypes such as recombinations relate to genetic disease.

  7. Towards Semantic Search and Inference in Electronic Medical Records

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bevan Koopman

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Background This paper presents a novel approach to searching electronic medical records that is based on concept matching rather than keyword matching. Aims The concept-based approach is intended to overcome specific challenges we identified in searching medical records. Method Queries and documents were transformed from their term-based originals into medical concepts as defined by the SNOMED-CT ontology. Results Evaluation on a real-world collection of medical records showed our concept-based approach outperformed a keyword baseline by 25% in Mean Average Precision. Conclusion The concept-based approach provides a framework for further development of inference based search systems for dealing with medical data.

  8. Conclusive evidence for hexasomic inheritance in chrysanthemum based on analysis of a 183 k SNP array.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Geest, Geert; Voorrips, Roeland E; Esselink, Danny; Post, Aike; Visser, Richard Gf; Arens, Paul

    2017-08-07

    Cultivated chrysanthemum is an outcrossing hexaploid (2n = 6× = 54) with a disputed mode of inheritance. In this paper, we present a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) selection pipeline that was used to design an Affymetrix Axiom array with 183 k SNPs from RNA sequencing data (1). With this array, we genotyped four bi-parental populations (with sizes of 405, 53, 76 and 37 offspring plants respectively), and a cultivar panel of 63 genotypes. Further, we present a method for dosage scoring in hexaploids from signal intensities of the array based on mixture models (2) and validation of selection steps in the SNP selection pipeline (3). The resulting genotypic data is used to draw conclusions on the mode of inheritance in chrysanthemum (4), and to make an inference on allelic expression bias (5). With use of the mixture model approach, we successfully called the dosage of 73,936 out of 183,130 SNPs (40.4%) that segregated in any of the bi-parental populations. To investigate the mode of inheritance, we analysed markers that segregated in the large bi-parental population (n = 405). Analysis of segregation of duplex x nulliplex SNPs resulted in evidence for genome-wide hexasomic inheritance. This evidence was substantiated by the absence of strong linkage between markers in repulsion, which indicated absence of full disomic inheritance. We present the success rate of SNP discovery out of RNA sequencing data as affected by different selection steps, among which SNP coverage over genotypes and use of different types of sequence read mapping software. Genomic dosage highly correlated with relative allele coverage from the RNA sequencing data, indicating that most alleles are expressed according to their genomic dosage. The large population, genotyped with a very large number of markers, is a unique framework for extensive genetic analyses in hexaploid chrysanthemum. As starting point, we show conclusive evidence for genome-wide hexasomic inheritance.

  9. Likelihood inference for unions of interacting discs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jesper; Helisová, Katarina

    To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper which discusses likelihood inference or a random set using a germ-grain model, where the individual grains are unobservable edge effects occur, and other complications appear. We consider the case where the grains form a disc process modelled...... is specified with respect to a given marked Poisson model (i.e. a Boolean model). We show how edge effects and other complications can be handled by considering a certain conditional likelihood. Our methodology is illustrated by analyzing Peter Diggle's heather dataset, where we discuss the results...... of simulation-based maximum likelihood inference and the effect of specifying different reference Poisson models....

  10. An Intuitive Dashboard for Bayesian Network Inference

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reddy, Vikas; Farr, Anna Charisse; Wu, Paul; Mengersen, Kerrie; Yarlagadda, Prasad K D V

    2014-01-01

    Current Bayesian network software packages provide good graphical interface for users who design and develop Bayesian networks for various applications. However, the intended end-users of these networks may not necessarily find such an interface appealing and at times it could be overwhelming, particularly when the number of nodes in the network is large. To circumvent this problem, this paper presents an intuitive dashboard, which provides an additional layer of abstraction, enabling the end-users to easily perform inferences over the Bayesian networks. Unlike most software packages, which display the nodes and arcs of the network, the developed tool organises the nodes based on the cause-and-effect relationship, making the user-interaction more intuitive and friendly. In addition to performing various types of inferences, the users can conveniently use the tool to verify the behaviour of the developed Bayesian network. The tool has been developed using QT and SMILE libraries in C++

  11. The NIFTY way of Bayesian signal inference

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Selig, Marco

    2014-01-01

    We introduce NIFTY, 'Numerical Information Field Theory', a software package for the development of Bayesian signal inference algorithms that operate independently from any underlying spatial grid and its resolution. A large number of Bayesian and Maximum Entropy methods for 1D signal reconstruction, 2D imaging, as well as 3D tomography, appear formally similar, but one often finds individualized implementations that are neither flexible nor easily transferable. Signal inference in the framework of NIFTY can be done in an abstract way, such that algorithms, prototyped in 1D, can be applied to real world problems in higher-dimensional settings. NIFTY as a versatile library is applicable and already has been applied in 1D, 2D, 3D and spherical settings. A recent application is the D 3 PO algorithm targeting the non-trivial task of denoising, deconvolving, and decomposing photon observations in high energy astronomy

  12. The NIFTy way of Bayesian signal inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selig, Marco

    2014-12-01

    We introduce NIFTy, "Numerical Information Field Theory", a software package for the development of Bayesian signal inference algorithms that operate independently from any underlying spatial grid and its resolution. A large number of Bayesian and Maximum Entropy methods for 1D signal reconstruction, 2D imaging, as well as 3D tomography, appear formally similar, but one often finds individualized implementations that are neither flexible nor easily transferable. Signal inference in the framework of NIFTy can be done in an abstract way, such that algorithms, prototyped in 1D, can be applied to real world problems in higher-dimensional settings. NIFTy as a versatile library is applicable and already has been applied in 1D, 2D, 3D and spherical settings. A recent application is the D3PO algorithm targeting the non-trivial task of denoising, deconvolving, and decomposing photon observations in high energy astronomy.

  13. Bayesianism and inference to the best explanation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valeriano IRANZO

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Bayesianism and Inference to the best explanation (IBE are two different models of inference. Recently there has been some debate about the possibility of “bayesianizing” IBE. Firstly I explore several alternatives to include explanatory considerations in Bayes’s Theorem. Then I distinguish two different interpretations of prior probabilities: “IBE-Bayesianism” (IBE-Bay and “frequentist-Bayesianism” (Freq-Bay. After detailing the content of the latter, I propose a rule for assessing the priors. I also argue that Freq-Bay: (i endorses a role for explanatory value in the assessment of scientific hypotheses; (ii avoids a purely subjectivist reading of prior probabilities; and (iii fits better than IBE-Bayesianism with two basic facts about science, i.e., the prominent role played by empirical testing and the existence of many scientific theories in the past that failed to fulfil their promises and were subsequently abandoned.

  14. Dopamine, reward learning, and active inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas eFitzgerald

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Temporal difference learning models propose phasic dopamine signalling encodes reward prediction errors that drive learning. This is supported by studies where optogenetic stimulation of dopamine neurons can stand in lieu of actual reward. Nevertheless, a large body of data also shows that dopamine is not necessary for learning, and that dopamine depletion primarily affects task performance. We offer a resolution to this paradox based on an hypothesis that dopamine encodes the precision of beliefs about alternative actions, and thus controls the outcome-sensitivity of behaviour. We extend an active inference scheme for solving Markov decision processes to include learning, and show that simulated dopamine dynamics strongly resemble those actually observed during instrumental conditioning. Furthermore, simulated dopamine depletion impairs performance but spares learning, while simulated excitation of dopamine neurons drives reward learning, through aberrant inference about outcome states. Our formal approach provides a novel and parsimonious reconciliation of apparently divergent experimental findings.

  15. Dopamine, reward learning, and active inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    FitzGerald, Thomas H B; Dolan, Raymond J; Friston, Karl

    2015-01-01

    Temporal difference learning models propose phasic dopamine signaling encodes reward prediction errors that drive learning. This is supported by studies where optogenetic stimulation of dopamine neurons can stand in lieu of actual reward. Nevertheless, a large body of data also shows that dopamine is not necessary for learning, and that dopamine depletion primarily affects task performance. We offer a resolution to this paradox based on an hypothesis that dopamine encodes the precision of beliefs about alternative actions, and thus controls the outcome-sensitivity of behavior. We extend an active inference scheme for solving Markov decision processes to include learning, and show that simulated dopamine dynamics strongly resemble those actually observed during instrumental conditioning. Furthermore, simulated dopamine depletion impairs performance but spares learning, while simulated excitation of dopamine neurons drives reward learning, through aberrant inference about outcome states. Our formal approach provides a novel and parsimonious reconciliation of apparently divergent experimental findings.

  16. Inferring genetic interactions from comparative fitness data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crona, Kristina; Gavryushkin, Alex; Greene, Devin; Beerenwinkel, Niko

    2017-12-20

    Darwinian fitness is a central concept in evolutionary biology. In practice, however, it is hardly possible to measure fitness for all genotypes in a natural population. Here, we present quantitative tools to make inferences about epistatic gene interactions when the fitness landscape is only incompletely determined due to imprecise measurements or missing observations. We demonstrate that genetic interactions can often be inferred from fitness rank orders, where all genotypes are ordered according to fitness, and even from partial fitness orders. We provide a complete characterization of rank orders that imply higher order epistasis. Our theory applies to all common types of gene interactions and facilitates comprehensive investigations of diverse genetic interactions. We analyzed various genetic systems comprising HIV-1, the malaria-causing parasite Plasmodium vivax , the fungus Aspergillus niger , and the TEM-family of β-lactamase associated with antibiotic resistance. For all systems, our approach revealed higher order interactions among mutations.

  17. An emergent approach to analogical inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thibodeau, Paul H.; Flusberg, Stephen J.; Glick, Jeremy J.; Sternberg, Daniel A.

    2013-03-01

    In recent years, a growing number of researchers have proposed that analogy is a core component of human cognition. According to the dominant theoretical viewpoint, analogical reasoning requires a specific suite of cognitive machinery, including explicitly coded symbolic representations and a mapping or binding mechanism that operates over these representations. Here we offer an alternative approach: we find that analogical inference can emerge naturally and spontaneously from a relatively simple, error-driven learning mechanism without the need to posit any additional analogy-specific machinery. The results also parallel findings from the developmental literature on analogy, demonstrating a shift from an initial reliance on surface feature similarity to the use of relational similarity later in training. Variants of the model allow us to consider and rule out alternative accounts of its performance. We conclude by discussing how these findings can potentially refine our understanding of the processes that are required to perform analogical inference.

  18. Pointwise probability reinforcements for robust statistical inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frénay, Benoît; Verleysen, Michel

    2014-02-01

    Statistical inference using machine learning techniques may be difficult with small datasets because of abnormally frequent data (AFDs). AFDs are observations that are much more frequent in the training sample that they should be, with respect to their theoretical probability, and include e.g. outliers. Estimates of parameters tend to be biased towards models which support such data. This paper proposes to introduce pointwise probability reinforcements (PPRs): the probability of each observation is reinforced by a PPR and a regularisation allows controlling the amount of reinforcement which compensates for AFDs. The proposed solution is very generic, since it can be used to robustify any statistical inference method which can be formulated as a likelihood maximisation. Experiments show that PPRs can be easily used to tackle regression, classification and projection: models are freed from the influence of outliers. Moreover, outliers can be filtered manually since an abnormality degree is obtained for each observation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Statistical inference from imperfect photon detection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Audenaert, Koenraad M R; Scheel, Stefan

    2009-01-01

    We consider the statistical properties of photon detection with imperfect detectors that exhibit dark counts and less than unit efficiency, in the context of tomographic reconstruction. In this context, the detectors are used to implement certain positive operator-valued measures (POVMs) that would allow us to reconstruct the quantum state or quantum process under consideration. Here we look at the intermediate step of inferring outcome probabilities from measured outcome frequencies, and show how this inference can be performed in a statistically sound way in the presence of detector imperfections. Merging outcome probabilities for different sets of POVMs into a consistent quantum state picture has been treated elsewhere (Audenaert and Scheel 2009 New J. Phys. 11 023028). Single-photon pulsed measurements as well as continuous wave measurements are covered.

  20. An Intuitive Dashboard for Bayesian Network Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddy, Vikas; Charisse Farr, Anna; Wu, Paul; Mengersen, Kerrie; Yarlagadda, Prasad K. D. V.

    2014-03-01

    Current Bayesian network software packages provide good graphical interface for users who design and develop Bayesian networks for various applications. However, the intended end-users of these networks may not necessarily find such an interface appealing and at times it could be overwhelming, particularly when the number of nodes in the network is large. To circumvent this problem, this paper presents an intuitive dashboard, which provides an additional layer of abstraction, enabling the end-users to easily perform inferences over the Bayesian networks. Unlike most software packages, which display the nodes and arcs of the network, the developed tool organises the nodes based on the cause-and-effect relationship, making the user-interaction more intuitive and friendly. In addition to performing various types of inferences, the users can conveniently use the tool to verify the behaviour of the developed Bayesian network. The tool has been developed using QT and SMILE libraries in C++.

  1. Working with sample data exploration and inference

    CERN Document Server

    Chaffe-Stengel, Priscilla

    2014-01-01

    Managers and analysts routinely collect and examine key performance measures to better understand their operations and make good decisions. Being able to render the complexity of operations data into a coherent account of significant events requires an understanding of how to work well with raw data and to make appropriate inferences. Although some statistical techniques for analyzing data and making inferences are sophisticated and require specialized expertise, there are methods that are understandable and applicable by anyone with basic algebra skills and the support of a spreadsheet package. By applying these fundamental methods themselves rather than turning over both the data and the responsibility for analysis and interpretation to an expert, managers will develop a richer understanding and potentially gain better control over their environment. This text is intended to describe these fundamental statistical techniques to managers, data analysts, and students. Statistical analysis of sample data is enh...

  2. Parametric inference for biological sequence analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pachter, Lior; Sturmfels, Bernd

    2004-11-16

    One of the major successes in computational biology has been the unification, by using the graphical model formalism, of a multitude of algorithms for annotating and comparing biological sequences. Graphical models that have been applied to these problems include hidden Markov models for annotation, tree models for phylogenetics, and pair hidden Markov models for alignment. A single algorithm, the sum-product algorithm, solves many of the inference problems that are associated with different statistical models. This article introduces the polytope propagation algorithm for computing the Newton polytope of an observation from a graphical model. This algorithm is a geometric version of the sum-product algorithm and is used to analyze the parametric behavior of maximum a posteriori inference calculations for graphical models.

  3. Inferences on Children’s Reading Groups

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javier González García

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available This article focuses on the non-literal information of a text, which can be inferred from key elements or clues offered by the text itself. This kind of text is called implicit text or inference, due to the thinking process that it stimulates. The explicit resources that lead to information retrieval are related to others of implicit information, which have increased their relevance. In this study, during two courses, how two teachers interpret three stories and how they establish a debate dividing the class into three student groups, was analyzed. The sample was formed by two classes of two urban public schools of Burgos capital (Spain, and two of public schools of Tampico (Mexico. This allowed us to observe an increasing percentage value of the group focused in text comprehension, and a lesser percentage of the group perceiving comprehension as a secondary objective.

  4. 76 FR 22681 - Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) Address Directory

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-04-22

    ... DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE Office of the Secretary Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) Address Directory AGENCY: Department of Defense. ACTION: Notice. SUMMARY: The Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) is updating... Directory: Defense Logistics Agency Headquarters, Andrew T. McNamara Building, 8725 John J. Kingman Road...

  5. 2015 Assessment of the Ballistic Missile Defense System (BMDS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-04-01

    Director, Operational Test and Evaluation 2015 Assessment of the Ballistic Missile Defense System (BMDS...Evaluation (DOT&E) as they pertain to the Ballistic Missile Defense System (BMDS). Congress specified these requirements in the fiscal year 2002 (FY02...systems are the Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD), Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense (Aegis BMD), Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), and

  6. 78 FR 17176 - Federal Acquisition Regulation; Defense Base Act

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-20

    ... Regulation; Defense Base Act AGENCIES: Department of Defense (DoD), General Services Administration (GSA... the Defense Base Act. DATES: Interested parties should submit written comments to the Regulatory... Act as extended by the Defense Base Act. II. Discussion and Analysis The Defense Base Act of 1941...

  7. 75 FR 43156 - Federal Advisory Committee; Missile Defense Advisory Committee

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-23

    ... DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE Office of the Secretary Federal Advisory Committee; Missile Defense Advisory Committee AGENCY: Missile Defense Agency (MDA), DoD. ACTION: Notice of closed meeting. SUMMARY: Under the... Defense announces that the Missile Defense Advisory Committee will meet on August 4 and 5, 2010, in...

  8. Inferring Genetic Ancestry: Opportunities, Challenges, and Implications

    OpenAIRE

    Royal, Charmaine D.; Novembre, John; Fullerton, Stephanie M.; Goldstein, David B.; Long, Jeffrey C.; Bamshad, Michael J.; Clark, Andrew G.

    2010-01-01

    Increasing public interest in direct-to-consumer (DTC) genetic ancestry testing has been accompanied by growing concern about issues ranging from the personal and societal implications of the testing to the scientific validity of ancestry inference. The very concept of “ancestry” is subject to misunderstanding in both the general and scientific communities. What do we mean by ancestry? How exactly is ancestry measured? How far back can such ancestry be defined and by which genetic tools? How ...

  9. Spatial Inference Based on Geometric Proportional Analogies

    OpenAIRE

    Mullally, Emma-Claire; O'Donoghue, Diarmuid P.

    2006-01-01

    We describe an instance-based reasoning solution to a variety of spatial reasoning problems. The solution centers on identifying an isomorphic mapping between labelled graphs that represent some problem data and a known solution instance. We describe a number of spatial reasoning problems that are solved by generating non-deductive inferences, integrating topology with area (and other) features. We report the accuracy of our algorithm on different categories of spatial reasoning tasks from th...

  10. Inferring ontology graph structures using OWL reasoning

    KAUST Repository

    Rodriguez-Garcia, Miguel Angel

    2018-01-05

    Ontologies are representations of a conceptualization of a domain. Traditionally, ontologies in biology were represented as directed acyclic graphs (DAG) which represent the backbone taxonomy and additional relations between classes. These graphs are widely exploited for data analysis in the form of ontology enrichment or computation of semantic similarity. More recently, ontologies are developed in a formal language such as the Web Ontology Language (OWL) and consist of a set of axioms through which classes are defined or constrained. While the taxonomy of an ontology can be inferred directly from the axioms of an ontology as one of the standard OWL reasoning tasks, creating general graph structures from OWL ontologies that exploit the ontologies\\' semantic content remains a challenge.We developed a method to transform ontologies into graphs using an automated reasoner while taking into account all relations between classes. Searching for (existential) patterns in the deductive closure of ontologies, we can identify relations between classes that are implied but not asserted and generate graph structures that encode for a large part of the ontologies\\' semantic content. We demonstrate the advantages of our method by applying it to inference of protein-protein interactions through semantic similarity over the Gene Ontology and demonstrate that performance is increased when graph structures are inferred using deductive inference according to our method. Our software and experiment results are available at http://github.com/bio-ontology-research-group/Onto2Graph .Onto2Graph is a method to generate graph structures from OWL ontologies using automated reasoning. The resulting graphs can be used for improved ontology visualization and ontology-based data analysis.

  11. Role of Speaker Cues in Attention Inference

    OpenAIRE

    Jin Joo Lee; Cynthia Breazeal; David DeSteno

    2017-01-01

    Current state-of-the-art approaches to emotion recognition primarily focus on modeling the nonverbal expressions of the sole individual without reference to contextual elements such as the co-presence of the partner. In this paper, we demonstrate that the accurate inference of listeners’ social-emotional state of attention depends on accounting for the nonverbal behaviors of their storytelling partner, namely their speaker cues. To gain a deeper understanding of the role of speaker cues in at...

  12. Inferring ontology graph structures using OWL reasoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez-García, Miguel Ángel; Hoehndorf, Robert

    2018-01-05

    Ontologies are representations of a conceptualization of a domain. Traditionally, ontologies in biology were represented as directed acyclic graphs (DAG) which represent the backbone taxonomy and additional relations between classes. These graphs are widely exploited for data analysis in the form of ontology enrichment or computation of semantic similarity. More recently, ontologies are developed in a formal language such as the Web Ontology Language (OWL) and consist of a set of axioms through which classes are defined or constrained. While the taxonomy of an ontology can be inferred directly from the axioms of an ontology as one of the standard OWL reasoning tasks, creating general graph structures from OWL ontologies that exploit the ontologies' semantic content remains a challenge. We developed a method to transform ontologies into graphs using an automated reasoner while taking into account all relations between classes. Searching for (existential) patterns in the deductive closure of ontologies, we can identify relations between classes that are implied but not asserted and generate graph structures that encode for a large part of the ontologies' semantic content. We demonstrate the advantages of our method by applying it to inference of protein-protein interactions through semantic similarity over the Gene Ontology and demonstrate that performance is increased when graph structures are inferred using deductive inference according to our method. Our software and experiment results are available at http://github.com/bio-ontology-research-group/Onto2Graph . Onto2Graph is a method to generate graph structures from OWL ontologies using automated reasoning. The resulting graphs can be used for improved ontology visualization and ontology-based data analysis.

  13. Constrained bayesian inference of project performance models

    OpenAIRE

    Sunmola, Funlade

    2013-01-01

    Project performance models play an important role in the management of project success. When used for monitoring projects, they can offer predictive ability such as indications of possible delivery problems. Approaches for monitoring project performance relies on available project information including restrictions imposed on the project, particularly the constraints of cost, quality, scope and time. We study in this paper a Bayesian inference methodology for project performance modelling in ...

  14. Using metacognitive cues to infer others' thinking

    OpenAIRE

    André Mata; Tiago Almeida

    2014-01-01

    Three studies tested whether people use cues about the way other people think---for example, whether others respond fast vs. slow---to infer what responses other people might give to reasoning problems. People who solve reasoning problems using deliberative thinking have better insight than intuitive problem-solvers into the responses that other people might give to the same problems. Presumably because deliberative responders think of intuitive responses before they think o...

  15. Thermodynamics of statistical inference by cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, Alex H; Fisher, Charles K; Mora, Thierry; Mehta, Pankaj

    2014-10-03

    The deep connection between thermodynamics, computation, and information is now well established both theoretically and experimentally. Here, we extend these ideas to show that thermodynamics also places fundamental constraints on statistical estimation and learning. To do so, we investigate the constraints placed by (nonequilibrium) thermodynamics on the ability of biochemical signaling networks to estimate the concentration of an external signal. We show that accuracy is limited by energy consumption, suggesting that there are fundamental thermodynamic constraints on statistical inference.

  16. A feedback framework for protein inference with peptides identified from tandem mass spectra

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shi Jinhong

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Protein inference is an important computational step in proteomics. There exists a natural nest relationship between protein inference and peptide identification, but these two steps are usually performed separately in existing methods. We believe that both peptide identification and protein inference can be improved by exploring such nest relationship. Results In this study, a feedback framework is proposed to process peptide identification reports from search engines, and an iterative method is implemented to exemplify the processing of Sequest peptide identification reports according to the framework. The iterative method is verified on two datasets with known validity of proteins and peptides, and compared with ProteinProphet and PeptideProphet. The results have shown that not only can the iterative method infer more true positive and less false positive proteins than ProteinProphet, but also identify more true positive and less false positive peptides than PeptideProphet. Conclusions The proposed iterative method implemented according to the feedback framework can unify and improve the results of peptide identification and protein inference.

  17. Bootstrap inference when using multiple imputation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schomaker, Michael; Heumann, Christian

    2018-04-16

    Many modern estimators require bootstrapping to calculate confidence intervals because either no analytic standard error is available or the distribution of the parameter of interest is nonsymmetric. It remains however unclear how to obtain valid bootstrap inference when dealing with multiple imputation to address missing data. We present 4 methods that are intuitively appealing, easy to implement, and combine bootstrap estimation with multiple imputation. We show that 3 of the 4 approaches yield valid inference, but that the performance of the methods varies with respect to the number of imputed data sets and the extent of missingness. Simulation studies reveal the behavior of our approaches in finite samples. A topical analysis from HIV treatment research, which determines the optimal timing of antiretroviral treatment initiation in young children, demonstrates the practical implications of the 4 methods in a sophisticated and realistic setting. This analysis suffers from missing data and uses the g-formula for inference, a method for which no standard errors are available. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  18. Inferring epidemic network topology from surveillance data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiang Wan

    Full Text Available The transmission of infectious diseases can be affected by many or even hidden factors, making it difficult to accurately predict when and where outbreaks may emerge. One approach at the moment is to develop and deploy surveillance systems in an effort to detect outbreaks as timely as possible. This enables policy makers to modify and implement strategies for the control of the transmission. The accumulated surveillance data including temporal, spatial, clinical, and demographic information, can provide valuable information with which to infer the underlying epidemic networks. Such networks can be quite informative and insightful as they characterize how infectious diseases transmit from one location to another. The aim of this work is to develop a computational model that allows inferences to be made regarding epidemic network topology in heterogeneous populations. We apply our model on the surveillance data from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Hong Kong. The inferred epidemic network displays significant effect on the propagation of infectious diseases.

  19. Role of Speaker Cues in Attention Inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jin Joo Lee

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Current state-of-the-art approaches to emotion recognition primarily focus on modeling the nonverbal expressions of the sole individual without reference to contextual elements such as the co-presence of the partner. In this paper, we demonstrate that the accurate inference of listeners’ social-emotional state of attention depends on accounting for the nonverbal behaviors of their storytelling partner, namely their speaker cues. To gain a deeper understanding of the role of speaker cues in attention inference, we conduct investigations into real-world interactions of children (5–6 years old storytelling with their peers. Through in-depth analysis of human–human interaction data, we first identify nonverbal speaker cues (i.e., backchannel-inviting cues and listener responses (i.e., backchannel feedback. We then demonstrate how speaker cues can modify the interpretation of attention-related backchannels as well as serve as a means to regulate the responsiveness of listeners. We discuss the design implications of our findings toward our primary goal of developing attention recognition models for storytelling robots, and we argue that social robots can proactively use speaker cues to form more accurate inferences about the attentive state of their human partners.

  20. Cortical information flow during inferences of agency

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Myrthel eDogge

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Building on the recent finding that agency experiences do not merely rely on sensorimotor information but also on cognitive cues, this exploratory study uses electroencephalographic recordings to examine functional connectivity during agency inference processing in a setting where action and outcome are independent. Participants completed a computerized task in which they pressed a button followed by one of two color words (red or blue and rated their experienced agency over producing the color. Before executing the action, a matching or mismatching color word was pre-activated by explicitly instructing participants to produce the color (goal condition or by briefly presenting the color word (prime condition. In both conditions, experienced agency was higher in matching versus mismatching trials. Furthermore, increased electroencephalography (EEG-based connectivity strength was observed between parietal and frontal nodes and within the (prefrontal cortex when color-outcomes matched with goals and participants reported high agency. This pattern of increased connectivity was not identified in trials where outcomes were pre-activated through primes. These results suggest that different connections are involved in the experience and in the loss of agency, as well as in inferences of agency resulting from different types of pre-activation. Moreover, the findings provide novel support for the involvement of a fronto-parietal network in agency inferences.

  1. Phylogenetic Inference of HIV Transmission Clusters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vlad Novitsky

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Better understanding the structure and dynamics of HIV transmission networks is essential for designing the most efficient interventions to prevent new HIV transmissions, and ultimately for gaining control of the HIV epidemic. The inference of phylogenetic relationships and the interpretation of results rely on the definition of the HIV transmission cluster. The definition of the HIV cluster is complex and dependent on multiple factors, including the design of sampling, accuracy of sequencing, precision of sequence alignment, evolutionary models, the phylogenetic method of inference, and specified thresholds for cluster support. While the majority of studies focus on clusters, non-clustered cases could also be highly informative. A new dimension in the analysis of the global and local HIV epidemics is the concept of phylogenetically distinct HIV sub-epidemics. The identification of active HIV sub-epidemics reveals spreading viral lineages and may help in the design of targeted interventions.HIVclustering can also be affected by sampling density. Obtaining a proper sampling density may increase statistical power and reduce sampling bias, so sampling density should be taken into account in study design and in interpretation of phylogenetic results. Finally, recent advances in long-range genotyping may enable more accurate inference of HIV transmission networks. If performed in real time, it could both inform public-health strategies and be clinically relevant (e.g., drug-resistance testing.

  2. Causal inference of asynchronous audiovisual speech

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John F Magnotti

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available During speech perception, humans integrate auditory information from the voice with visual information from the face. This multisensory integration increases perceptual precision, but only if the two cues come from the same talker; this requirement has been largely ignored by current models of speech perception. We describe a generative model of multisensory speech perception that includes this critical step of determining the likelihood that the voice and face information have a common cause. A key feature of the model is that it is based on a principled analysis of how an observer should solve this causal inference problem using the asynchrony between two cues and the reliability of the cues. This allows the model to make predictions abut the behavior of subjects performing a synchrony judgment task, predictive power that does not exist in other approaches, such as post hoc fitting of Gaussian curves to behavioral data. We tested the model predictions against the performance of 37 subjects performing a synchrony judgment task viewing audiovisual speech under a variety of manipulations, including varying asynchronies, intelligibility, and visual cue reliability. The causal inference model outperformed the Gaussian model across two experiments, providing a better fit to the behavioral data with fewer parameters. Because the causal inference model is derived from a principled understanding of the task, model parameters are directly interpretable in terms of stimulus and subject properties.

  3. Functional neuroanatomy of intuitive physical inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Jason; Mikhael, John G; Tenenbaum, Joshua B; Kanwisher, Nancy

    2016-08-23

    To engage with the world-to understand the scene in front of us, plan actions, and predict what will happen next-we must have an intuitive grasp of the world's physical structure and dynamics. How do the objects in front of us rest on and support each other, how much force would be required to move them, and how will they behave when they fall, roll, or collide? Despite the centrality of physical inferences in daily life, little is known about the brain mechanisms recruited to interpret the physical structure of a scene and predict how physical events will unfold. Here, in a series of fMRI experiments, we identified a set of cortical regions that are selectively engaged when people watch and predict the unfolding of physical events-a "physics engine" in the brain. These brain regions are selective to physical inferences relative to nonphysical but otherwise highly similar scenes and tasks. However, these regions are not exclusively engaged in physical inferences per se or, indeed, even in scene understanding; they overlap with the domain-general "multiple demand" system, especially the parts of that system involved in action planning and tool use, pointing to a close relationship between the cognitive and neural mechanisms involved in parsing the physical content of a scene and preparing an appropriate action.

  4. Elements of Causal Inference: Foundations and Learning Algorithms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Peters, Jonas Martin; Janzing, Dominik; Schölkopf, Bernhard

    A concise and self-contained introduction to causal inference, increasingly important in data science and machine learning......A concise and self-contained introduction to causal inference, increasingly important in data science and machine learning...

  5. Integrating distributed Bayesian inference and reinforcement learning for sensor management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grappiolo, C.; Whiteson, S.; Pavlin, G.; Bakker, B.

    2009-01-01

    This paper introduces a sensor management approach that integrates distributed Bayesian inference (DBI) and reinforcement learning (RL). DBI is implemented using distributed perception networks (DPNs), a multiagent approach to performing efficient inference, while RL is used to automatically

  6. Website Fingerprinting Defenses at the Application Layer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cherubin Giovanni

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Website Fingerprinting (WF allows a passive network adversary to learn the websites that a client visits by analyzing traffic patterns that are unique to each website. It has been recently shown that these attacks are particularly effective against .onion sites, anonymous web servers hosted within the Tor network. Given the sensitive nature of the content of these services, the implications of WF on the Tor network are alarming. Prior work has only considered defenses at the client-side arguing that web servers lack of incentives to adopt countermeasures. Furthermore, most of these defenses have been designed to operate on the stream of network packets, making practical deployment difficult. In this paper, we propose two application-level defenses including the first server-side defense against WF, as .onion services have incentives to support it. The other defense is a lightweight client-side defense implemented as a browser add-on, improving ease of deployment over previous approaches. In our evaluations, the server-side defense is able to reduce WF accuracy on Tor .onion sites from 69.6% to 10% and the client-side defense reduces accuracy from 64% to 31.5%.

  7. Strengthening Nordic-Baltic Defense Capabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Breitenbauch, Henrik Ø.

    2014-01-01

    and troubling challenge to the way international security has been structured in Europe since the end of the Cold War. While most of the existing defense cooperation with a view of strengthening defense capabilities has been carried out within the internationally renowned framework of NORDEFCO...

  8. Policy implications of the Strategic Defense Initiative

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goodwin, R.C.

    1991-01-01

    Specific topics include: the technological feasibility of proposed components and architectures; the compatibility of the proposed systems with existing and proposed arms control agreements, with special emphasis upon the ABM Treaty, Outer Space Treaty, the Defense and Space Treaty, and the START Treaty; the compatibility of proposed systems with classical warfare doctrine and the four modern strategic nuclear doctrines of Massive Retaliation, Assured Destruction, Countervailing and Flexible Response; the economics of strategic defense including an assessment of overall governmental spending, of the suballocation for defense, and of the feasibility of defensive systems which are cost-effective at the margin; and, in summary, an assessment of the New Strategic Concept which balances arms control, offensive forces, and defensive forces. This study falls within the realm of defense policy analysis in that it attempts to determine whether the administration's proposed Strategic Defense Initiative, as well as the long-term strategic defensive systems derived from SDI research, constitute efficient, desirable allocation of scarce government resources - especially in a period of seemingly relaxed superpower tensions and numerous demands upon those resources

  9. Civil defense should be mandatory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kearney, C.H.

    1985-01-01

    In this paper, the author exposes myths about the effects of nuclear weapons so that the U.S. can begin the necessary task of a mandatory civil defense program. An all-out nuclear war between Russia and the United States would be the worst catastrophe in history, a tragedy so huge it is difficult to comprehend. Even so, it would be far from the end of human life on earth. The dangers from nuclear weapons have been distorted and exaggerated for varied reasons. These exaggerations have become demoralizing myths, believed by millions of Americans. The author has found that many people see no sense in talking about details of survival skills. Only after they have begun to question the truth of these myths do they become interested, under normal peacetime conditions, in acquiring nuclear war survival skills. The author examines the most harmful of the myths about nuclear war dangers, along with some of the grim facts

  10. Defense program pushes microchip frontiers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Julian, K.

    1985-05-01

    The very-high-speed integrated circuit (VHSIC) program of the Department of Defense will have a significant effect on the expansion of integrated circuit technology. This program, which is to cost several hundred million dollars, is accelerating the trend toward higher-speed, denser circuitry for microchips through innovative design and fabrication techniques. Teams in six different American companies are to design and fabricate a military useful 'brassboard' system which would employ chips developed in the first phase of the VHSIC program. Military objectives envisaged include automatic monitoring of displays in tactical aircraft by means of an artificial intelligence system, a brassboard used in airborne electronic warfare system, and antisubmarine warfare applications. After a fivefold improvement in performance achieved in the first phase, the second phase is concerned with a further 20-fold increase. The entire VHSIC program is, therefore, to produce a 100-fold gain over the state of the art found when the program started.

  11. Low power unattended defense reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirchner, W.L.; Meier, K.L.

    1984-01-01

    A small, low power, passive, nuclear reactor electric power supply has been designed for unattended defense applications. Through innovative utilization of existing proven technologies and components, a highly reliable, ''walk-away safe'' design has been obtained. Operating at a thermal power level of 200 kWt, the reactor uses low enrichment uranium fuel in a graphite block core to generate heat that is transferred through heat pipes to a thermoelectric (TE) converter. Waste heat is removed from the TEs by circulation of ambient air. Because such a power supply offers the promise of minimal operation and maintenance (OandM) costs as well as no fuel logistics, it is particularly attractive for remote, unattended applications such as the North Warning System

  12. Low power unattended defense reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirchner, W.L.; Meier, K.L.

    1984-01-01

    A small, low power, passive, nuclear reactor electric power supply has been designed for unattended defense applications. Through innovative utilization of existing proven technologies and components, a highly reliable, walk-away safe design has been obtained. Operating at a thermal power level of 200 kWt, the reactor uses low enrichment uranium fuel in a graphite block core to generate heat that is transferred through heat pipes to a thermoelectric (TE) converter. Waste heat is removed from the TEs by circulation of ambient air. Because such a power supply offers the promise of minimal operation and maintenance (O and M) costs as well as no fuel logistics, it is particularly attractive for remote, unattended applications such as the North Warning System

  13. Physics of a ballistic missile defense - The chemical laser boost-phase defense

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grabbe, Crockett L.

    1988-01-01

    The basic physics involved in proposals to use a chemical laser based on satellites for a boost-phase defense are investigated. After a brief consideration of simple physical conditions for the defense, a calculation of an equation for the number of satellites needed for the defense is made along with some typical values of this for possible future conditions for the defense. Basic energy and power requirements for the defense are determined. A sumary is made of probable minimum conditions that must be achieved for laser power, targeting accuracy, number of satellites, and total sources for power needed.

  14. Bootstrapping phylogenies inferred from rearrangement data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yu; Rajan, Vaibhav; Moret, Bernard Me

    2012-08-29

    Large-scale sequencing of genomes has enabled the inference of phylogenies based on the evolution of genomic architecture, under such events as rearrangements, duplications, and losses. Many evolutionary models and associated algorithms have been designed over the last few years and have found use in comparative genomics and phylogenetic inference. However, the assessment of phylogenies built from such data has not been properly addressed to date. The standard method used in sequence-based phylogenetic inference is the bootstrap, but it relies on a large number of homologous characters that can be resampled; yet in the case of rearrangements, the entire genome is a single character. Alternatives such as the jackknife suffer from the same problem, while likelihood tests cannot be applied in the absence of well established probabilistic models. We present a new approach to the assessment of distance-based phylogenetic inference from whole-genome data; our approach combines features of the jackknife and the bootstrap and remains nonparametric. For each feature of our method, we give an equivalent feature in the sequence-based framework; we also present the results of extensive experimental testing, in both sequence-based and genome-based frameworks. Through the feature-by-feature comparison and the experimental results, we show that our bootstrapping approach is on par with the classic phylogenetic bootstrap used in sequence-based reconstruction, and we establish the clear superiority of the classic bootstrap for sequence data and of our corresponding new approach for rearrangement data over proposed variants. Finally, we test our approach on a small dataset of mammalian genomes, verifying that the support values match current thinking about the respective branches. Our method is the first to provide a standard of assessment to match that of the classic phylogenetic bootstrap for aligned sequences. Its support values follow a similar scale and its receiver

  15. Immune defense in leaf-cutting ants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Armitage, Sophie A O; Broch, Jens F; Marín, Hermogenes Fernández

    2011-01-01

    To ameliorate the impact of disease, social insects combine individual innate immune defenses with collective social defenses. This implies that there are different levels of selection acting on investment in immunity, each with their own trade-offs. We present the results of a cross......-fostering experiment designed to address the influences of genotype and social rearing environment upon individual and social immune defenses. We used a multiply mating leaf-cutting ant, enabling us to test for patriline effects within a colony, as well as cross-colony matriline effects. The worker's father influenced...... both individual innate immunity (constitutive antibacterial activity) and the size of the metapleural gland, which secretes antimicrobial compounds and functions in individual and social defense, indicating multiple mating could have important consequences for both defense types. However, the primarily...

  16. Study on defensive security concepts and policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-01-01

    The report begins by describing the background against which the proposal for the study emerged-the welcome developments brought about by the end of the cold war but also the emergence of new threats and the reappearance of long-standing problems. The study proceeds to examine current trends in the international security environment and how they may influence the peaceful settlement of dispute and the effecting of restraint and a defensive orientation in the development, maintenance and use of armed forces. A discussion of the substance and main features of defensive security concepts and policies follows. Existing studies and models designed to eliminate the offensive character of military force postures by effecting a defensive orientation of capabilities are surveyed. In addition, the study discusses political and military aspects of defensive security, pointing out how defensive security differs from those existing models

  17. Status of defense radioactive waste disposal activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wade, T.W.

    1988-01-01

    The Office of Defense Programs, U.S. Department of Energy, is responsible for the production of nuclear weapons and materials for national defense. As a byproduct to their activities, nuclear production facilities have generated, and will continue to generate, certain radioactive, hazardous, or mixed wastes that must be managed and disposed of in a safe and cost-effective manner. Compliance with all applicable Federal and State regulations is required. This paper describes the principal elements that comprise Defense Programs' approach to waste management and disposal. The status of high-level, transuranic, and low-level radioactive waste disposal is set forth. Defense Programs' activities in connection with the environmental restoration of inactive facilities and with the safe transport of waste materials are summarized. Finally, the principal challenges to realizing the goals set for the defense waste program are discussed in terms of regulatory, public acceptance, technical, and budget issues

  18. Type Inference for Session Types in the Pi-Calculus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Graversen, Eva Fajstrup; Harbo, Jacob Buchreitz; Huttel, Hans

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we present a direct algorithm for session type inference for the π-calculus. Type inference for session types has previously been achieved by either imposing limitations and restriction on the π-calculus, or by reducing the type inference problem to that for linear types. Our approach...

  19. Reasoning about Informal Statistical Inference: One Statistician's View

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossman, Allan J.

    2008-01-01

    This paper identifies key concepts and issues associated with the reasoning of informal statistical inference. I focus on key ideas of inference that I think all students should learn, including at secondary level as well as tertiary. I argue that a fundamental component of inference is to go beyond the data at hand, and I propose that statistical…

  20. Statistical Inference at Work: Statistical Process Control as an Example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakker, Arthur; Kent, Phillip; Derry, Jan; Noss, Richard; Hoyles, Celia

    2008-01-01

    To characterise statistical inference in the workplace this paper compares a prototypical type of statistical inference at work, statistical process control (SPC), with a type of statistical inference that is better known in educational settings, hypothesis testing. Although there are some similarities between the reasoning structure involved in…

  1. Silverleaf whitefly induces salicylic acid defenses and suppresses effectual jasmonic acid defenses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zarate, Sonia I; Kempema, Louisa A; Walling, Linda L

    2007-02-01

    The basal defenses important in curtailing the development of the phloem-feeding silverleaf whitefly (Bemisia tabaci type B; SLWF) on Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana) were investigated. Sentinel defense gene RNAs were monitored in SLWF-infested and control plants. Salicylic acid (SA)-responsive gene transcripts accumulated locally (PR1, BGL2, PR5, SID2, EDS5, PAD4) and systemically (PR1, BGL2, PR5) during SLWF nymph feeding. In contrast, jasmonic acid (JA)- and ethylene-dependent RNAs (PDF1.2, VSP1, HEL, THI2.1, FAD3, ERS1, ERF1) were repressed or not modulated in SLWF-infested leaves. To test for a role of SA and JA pathways in basal defense, SLWF development on mutant and transgenic lines that constitutively activate or impair defense pathways was determined. By monitoring the percentage of SLWF nymphs in each instar, we show that mutants that activate SA defenses (cim10) or impair JA defenses (coi1) accelerated SLWF nymphal development. Reciprocally, mutants that activate JA defenses (cev1) or impair SA defenses (npr1, NahG) slowed SLWF nymphal development. Furthermore, when npr1 plants, which do not activate downstream SA defenses, were treated with methyl jasmonate, a dramatic delay in nymph development was observed. Collectively, these results showed that SLWF-repressed, JA-regulated defenses were associated with basal defense to the SLWF.

  2. Silverleaf Whitefly Induces Salicylic Acid Defenses and Suppresses Effectual Jasmonic Acid Defenses1[W][OA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zarate, Sonia I.; Kempema, Louisa A.; Walling, Linda L.

    2007-01-01

    The basal defenses important in curtailing the development of the phloem-feeding silverleaf whitefly (Bemisia tabaci type B; SLWF) on Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana) were investigated. Sentinel defense gene RNAs were monitored in SLWF-infested and control plants. Salicylic acid (SA)-responsive gene transcripts accumulated locally (PR1, BGL2, PR5, SID2, EDS5, PAD4) and systemically (PR1, BGL2, PR5) during SLWF nymph feeding. In contrast, jasmonic acid (JA)- and ethylene-dependent RNAs (PDF1.2, VSP1, HEL, THI2.1, FAD3, ERS1, ERF1) were repressed or not modulated in SLWF-infested leaves. To test for a role of SA and JA pathways in basal defense, SLWF development on mutant and transgenic lines that constitutively activate or impair defense pathways was determined. By monitoring the percentage of SLWF nymphs in each instar, we show that mutants that activate SA defenses (cim10) or impair JA defenses (coi1) accelerated SLWF nymphal development. Reciprocally, mutants that activate JA defenses (cev1) or impair SA defenses (npr1, NahG) slowed SLWF nymphal development. Furthermore, when npr1 plants, which do not activate downstream SA defenses, were treated with methyl jasmonate, a dramatic delay in nymph development was observed. Collectively, these results showed that SLWF-repressed, JA-regulated defenses were associated with basal defense to the SLWF. PMID:17189328

  3. Is there a hierarchy of social inferences? The likelihood and speed of inferring intentionality, mind, and personality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malle, Bertram F; Holbrook, Jess

    2012-04-01

    People interpret behavior by making inferences about agents' intentionality, mind, and personality. Past research studied such inferences 1 at a time; in real life, people make these inferences simultaneously. The present studies therefore examined whether 4 major inferences (intentionality, desire, belief, and personality), elicited simultaneously in response to an observed behavior, might be ordered in a hierarchy of likelihood and speed. To achieve generalizability, the studies included a wide range of stimulus behaviors, presented them verbally and as dynamic videos, and assessed inferences both in a retrieval paradigm (measuring the likelihood and speed of accessing inferences immediately after they were made) and in an online processing paradigm (measuring the speed of forming inferences during behavior observation). Five studies provide evidence for a hierarchy of social inferences-from intentionality and desire to belief to personality-that is stable across verbal and visual presentations and that parallels the order found in developmental and primate research. (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

  4. Investment in defense and cost of predator-induced defense along a resource gradient

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Steiner, Uli

    2007-01-01

    An organism's investment in different traits to reduce predation is determined by the fitness benefit of the defense relative to the fitness costs associated with the allocation of time and resources to the defense. Inherent tradeoffs in time and resource allocation should result in differential...... investment in defense along a resource gradient, but competing models predict different patterns of investment. There are currently insufficient empirical data on changes in investment in defensive traits or their costs along resource gradients to differentiate between the competing allocation models....... In this study, I exposed tadpoles to caged predators along a resource gradient in order to estimate investment in defense and costs of defense by assessing predator-induced plasticity. Induced defenses included increased tail depth, reduced feeding, and reduced swimming activity; costs associated...

  5. The compatibility heuristic in non-categorical hypothetical reasoning: inferences between conditionals and disjunctions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Espino, Orlando; Byrne, Ruth M J

    2013-11-01

    A new theory explains how people make hypothetical inferences from a premise consistent with several alternatives to a conclusion consistent with several alternatives. The key proposal is that people rely on a heuristic that identifies compatible possibilities. It is tested in 7 experiments that examine inferences between conditionals and disjunctions. Participants accepted inferences between conditionals and inclusive disjunctions when a compatible possibility was immediately available, in their binary judgments that a conclusion followed or not (Experiment 1a) and ternary judgments that included it was not possible to know (Experiment 1b). The compatibility effect was amplified when compatible possibilities were more readily available, e.g., for 'A only if B' conditionals (Experiment 2). It was eliminated when compatible possibilities were not available, e.g., for 'if and only if A B' bi-conditionals and exclusive disjunctions (Experiment 3). The compatibility heuristic occurs even for inferences based on implicit negation e.g., 'A or B, therefore if C D' (Experiment 4), and between universals 'All A's are B's' and disjunctions (Experiment 5a) and universals and conditionals (Experiment 5b). The implications of the results for alternative theories of the cognitive processes underlying hypothetical deductions are discussed. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  6. Sandia National Laboratories: National Security Missions: Defense Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    ; Technology Defense Systems & Assessments About Defense Systems & Assessments Program Areas Audit Sandia's Economic Impact Licensing & Technology Transfer Browse Technology Portfolios ; Culture Work-Life Balance Special Programs Nuclear Weapons Defense Systems Global Security Energy Facebook

  7. Analysis of Defense Industry Consolidation Effects on Program Acquisition Costs

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hoff, Russell V

    2007-01-01

    .... This thesis examines whether cost changes are evident following consolidation within the defense industry by conducting a regression analysis of Major Defense Acquisition Programs across 13 broad defense market sectors...

  8. HOMA: Israel's National Missile Defense Strategy (Abridged Version)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lailari, Guermantes

    2002-01-01

    ... (Hebrew for Fortress Wall), Chapter 1 discusses the fundamentals of missile defense and the reason why Israel's missile defense system affects US national security interests, Chapter 2 describes Israel's missile defense...

  9. The inference from a single case: moral versus scientific inferences in implementing new biotechnologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hofmann, B

    2008-06-01

    Are there similarities between scientific and moral inference? This is the key question in this article. It takes as its point of departure an instance of one person's story in the media changing both Norwegian public opinion and a brand-new Norwegian law prohibiting the use of saviour siblings. The case appears to falsify existing norms and to establish new ones. The analysis of this case reveals similarities in the modes of inference in science and morals, inasmuch as (a) a single case functions as a counter-example to an existing rule; (b) there is a common presupposition of stability, similarity and order, which makes it possible to reason from a few cases to a general rule; and (c) this makes it possible to hold things together and retain order. In science, these modes of inference are referred to as falsification, induction and consistency. In morals, they have a variety of other names. Hence, even without abandoning the fact-value divide, there appear to be similarities between inference in science and inference in morals, which may encourage communication across the boundaries between "the two cultures" and which are relevant to medical humanities.

  10. Differential activity of innate defense antimicrobial peptides against Nocardia species

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wagner Dirk

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Members of the genus Nocardia are ubiquitous environmental saprophytes capable to cause human pulmonary, disseminated and cutaneous nocardiosis or bovine mastitis. Innate immunity appears to play an important role in early defense against Nocardia species. To elucidate the contribution of antimicrobial peptides (AMPs in innate defense against Nocardia, the activity of human α-defensins human neutrophil peptides (HNPs 1-3, human β-defensin (hBD-3 and cathelicidin LL-37 as well as bovine β-defensins lingual and tracheal antimicrobial peptides (LAP, TAP and bovine neutrophil-derived indolicidin against four important Nocardia species was investigated. Results Whereas N. farcinica ATCC 3318 and N. nova ATCC 33726 were found to be susceptible to all investigated human and bovine AMPs, N. asteroides ATCC 19247 was killed exclusively by neutrophil-derived human α-defensins HNP 1-3 and bovine indolicidin. N. brasiliensis ATCC 19296 was found to exhibit complete resistance to investigated human AMPs and to be susceptible only to bovine indolicidin. Conclusion Selected AMPs are capable to contribute to the first line of defense against Nocardia, yet, susceptibility appears to vary across different Nocardia species. Obtained results of neutrophil-derived AMPs to possess the broadest antinocardial spectrum are remarkable, since nocardiosis is characterized by a neutrophil-rich infiltrate in vivo.

  11. Relationship between funding source and conclusion among nutrition-related scientific articles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lesser, Lenard I; Ebbeling, Cara B; Goozner, Merrill; Wypij, David; Ludwig, David S

    2007-01-01

    Industrial support of biomedical research may bias scientific conclusions, as demonstrated by recent analyses of pharmaceutical studies. However, this issue has not been systematically examined in the area of nutrition research. The purpose of this study is to characterize financial sponsorship of scientific articles addressing the health effects of three commonly consumed beverages, and to determine how sponsorship affects published conclusions. Medline searches of worldwide literature were used to identify three article types (interventional studies, observational studies, and scientific reviews) about soft drinks, juice, and milk published between 1 January, 1999 and 31 December, 2003. Financial sponsorship and article conclusions were classified by independent groups of coinvestigators. The relationship between sponsorship and conclusions was explored by exact tests and regression analyses, controlling for covariates. 206 articles were included in the study, of which 111 declared financial sponsorship. Of these, 22% had all industry funding, 47% had no industry funding, and 32% had mixed funding. Funding source was significantly related to conclusions when considering all article types (p = 0.037). For interventional studies, the proportion with unfavorable conclusions was 0% for all industry funding versus 37% for no industry funding (p = 0.009). The odds ratio of a favorable versus unfavorable conclusion was 7.61 (95% confidence interval 1.27 to 45.73), comparing articles with all industry funding to no industry funding. Industry funding of nutrition-related scientific articles may bias conclusions in favor of sponsors' products, with potentially significant implications for public health.

  12. Conclusiveness of fine needle aspiration in 2419 histologically confirmed benign and malignant breast lesions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kooistra, B.; Wauters, C.; Wobbes, T.; Strobbe, L.

    2011-01-01

    We aimed to retrospectively assess (1) the conclusiveness of breast fine needle aspiration (FNA) in a histologically confirmed population and (2) the clinical and radiologic determinants of a conclusive diagnosis. Aspirates were diagnosed as inadequate, benign, atypical, suspicious or malignant. We

  13. 20 CFR 410.471 - Conclusion by physician regarding miner's disability or death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 20 Employees' Benefits 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Conclusion by physician regarding miner's disability or death. 410.471 Section 410.471 Employees' Benefits SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION FEDERAL COAL MINE HEALTH AND SAFETY ACT OF 1969, TITLE IV-BLACK LUNG BENEFITS (1969- ) Total Disability or Death Due to Pneumoconiosis § 410.471 Conclusion...

  14. Diffusion versus linear ballistic accumulation: different models but the same conclusions about psychological processes?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Donkin, C.; Brown, S.; Heathcote, A.; Wagenmakers, E.-J.

    2011-01-01

    Quantitative models for response time and accuracy are increasingly used as tools to draw conclusions about psychological processes. Here we investigate the extent to which these substantive conclusions depend on whether researchers use the Ratcliff diffusion model or the Linear Ballistic

  15. Defense and Regional Integration: Brazil’s Weapons Industry Case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suzeley Kalil Mathias

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper works with the relation between technological development and weapons industry in Brazil, pointing out the dependence of this to that one. One reveals as the changes in the commerce of armaments that currently privileges the production of small weapons for exportation. The conclusion is that to keep projects of this nature, is using to advantage the industrial park for the dual production, that is, that one takes care the civil and the military demands. At last, it defends the possibility of the defense industry works as mechanism of regional integration.

  16. Information Warfare-Worthy Jamming Attack Detection Mechanism for Wireless Sensor Networks Using a Fuzzy Inference System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sudip Misra

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available The proposed mechanism for jamming attack detection for wireless sensor networks is novel in three respects: firstly, it upgrades the jammer to include versatile military jammers; secondly, it graduates from the existing node-centric detection system to the network-centric system making it robust and economical at the nodes, and thirdly, it tackles the problem through fuzzy inference system, as the decision regarding intensity of jamming is seldom crisp. The system with its high robustness, ability to grade nodes with jamming indices, and its true-detection rate as high as 99.8%, is worthy of consideration for information warfare defense purposes.

  17. Parasitic wasp responses to symbiont-based defense in aphids

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oliver Kerry M

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Recent findings indicate that several insect lineages receive protection against particular natural enemies through infection with heritable symbionts, but little is yet known about whether enemies are able to discriminate and respond to symbiont-based defense. The pea aphid, Acyrthosiphon pisum, receives protection against the parasitic wasp, Aphidius ervi, when infected with the bacterial symbiont Hamiltonella defensa and its associated bacteriophage APSE (Acyrthosiphon pisum secondary endosymbiont. Internally developing parasitoid wasps, such as A. ervi, use maternal and embryonic factors to create an environment suitable for developing wasps. If more than one parasitoid egg is deposited into a single aphid host (superparasitism, then additional complements of these factors may contribute to the successful development of the single parasitoid that emerges. Results We performed experiments to determine if superparasitism is a tactic allowing wasps to overcome symbiont-mediated defense. We found that the deposition of two eggs into symbiont-protected aphids significantly increased rates of successful parasitism relative to singly parasitized aphids. We then conducted behavioral assays to determine whether A. ervi selectively superparasitizes H. defensa-infected aphids. In choice tests, we found that A. ervi tends to deposit a single egg in uninfected aphids, but two or more eggs in H. defensa-infected aphids, indicating that oviposition choices may be largely determined by infection status. Finally, we identified differences in the quantity of the trans-β-farnesene, the major component of aphid alarm pheromone, between H. defensa-infected and uninfected aphids, which may form the basis for discrimination. Conclusions Here we show that the parasitic wasp A. ervi discriminates among symbiont-infected and uninfected aphids, and changes its oviposition behavior in a way that increases the likelihood of overcoming symbiont

  18. Accounting for Unliquidated Obligations for the Defense Fuel Supply Center

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    1996-01-01

    .... The Defense Finance and Accounting Service (DFAS) Columbus Center, Columbus, Ohio, and the Defense Fuel Supply Center share responsibility for accurate accounting information and financial reporting...

  19. Selected General Controls Over the Defense Business Management System

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    1996-01-01

    .... The Defense Business Management System performs appropriation accounting, cost accounting, personnel, payroll, manpower, and management information functions for the Navy, the Air Force, five Defense...

  20. Defense Contract Management Command Capitalization of Fixed Assets

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Young, Shelton

    1997-01-01

    The audit objective was to determine whether the Defense Logistics Agency and the Defense Finance and Accounting Service had implemented effective management control procedures and complied with laws...

  1. FY 1997 Financial Reporting by The Defense Automated Printing Service

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    1998-01-01

    .... The accuracy of information in the financial systems and reported on financial statements is the joint responsibility of the Defense Automated Printing Service and the Defense Logistics Agency...

  2. Defense Finance and Accounting Service Commercial Activities Program

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    1999-01-01

    .... This report evaluated the Defense Finance and Accounting Service competitive sourcing process and reviewed the adequacy of the Defense Finance and Accounting Service management control program...

  3. Nonparametric inference of network structure and dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peixoto, Tiago P.

    The network structure of complex systems determine their function and serve as evidence for the evolutionary mechanisms that lie behind them. Despite considerable effort in recent years, it remains an open challenge to formulate general descriptions of the large-scale structure of network systems, and how to reliably extract such information from data. Although many approaches have been proposed, few methods attempt to gauge the statistical significance of the uncovered structures, and hence the majority cannot reliably separate actual structure from stochastic fluctuations. Due to the sheer size and high-dimensionality of many networks, this represents a major limitation that prevents meaningful interpretations of the results obtained with such nonstatistical methods. In this talk, I will show how these issues can be tackled in a principled and efficient fashion by formulating appropriate generative models of network structure that can have their parameters inferred from data. By employing a Bayesian description of such models, the inference can be performed in a nonparametric fashion, that does not require any a priori knowledge or ad hoc assumptions about the data. I will show how this approach can be used to perform model comparison, and how hierarchical models yield the most appropriate trade-off between model complexity and quality of fit based on the statistical evidence present in the data. I will also show how this general approach can be elegantly extended to networks with edge attributes, that are embedded in latent spaces, and that change in time. The latter is obtained via a fully dynamic generative network model, based on arbitrary-order Markov chains, that can also be inferred in a nonparametric fashion. Throughout the talk I will illustrate the application of the methods with many empirical networks such as the internet at the autonomous systems level, the global airport network, the network of actors and films, social networks, citations among

  4. Bayesian Estimation and Inference using Stochastic Hardware

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chetan Singh Thakur

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we present the implementation of two types of Bayesian inference problems to demonstrate the potential of building probabilistic algorithms in hardware using single set of building blocks with the ability to perform these computations in real time. The first implementation, referred to as the BEAST (Bayesian Estimation and Stochastic Tracker, demonstrates a simple problem where an observer uses an underlying Hidden Markov Model (HMM to track a target in one dimension. In this implementation, sensors make noisy observations of the target position at discrete time steps. The tracker learns the transition model for target movement, and the observation model for the noisy sensors, and uses these to estimate the target position by solving the Bayesian recursive equation online. We show the tracking performance of the system and demonstrate how it can learn the observation model, the transition model, and the external distractor (noise probability interfering with the observations. In the second implementation, referred to as the Bayesian INference in DAG (BIND, we show how inference can be performed in a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG using stochastic circuits. We show how these building blocks can be easily implemented using simple digital logic gates. An advantage of the stochastic electronic implementation is that it is robust to certain types of noise, which may become an issue in integrated circuit (IC technology with feature sizes in the order of tens of nanometers due to their low noise margin, the effect of high-energy cosmic rays and the low supply voltage. In our framework, the flipping of random individual bits would not affect the system performance because information is encoded in a bit stream.

  5. Bayesian Estimation and Inference Using Stochastic Electronics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thakur, Chetan Singh; Afshar, Saeed; Wang, Runchun M; Hamilton, Tara J; Tapson, Jonathan; van Schaik, André

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we present the implementation of two types of Bayesian inference problems to demonstrate the potential of building probabilistic algorithms in hardware using single set of building blocks with the ability to perform these computations in real time. The first implementation, referred to as the BEAST (Bayesian Estimation and Stochastic Tracker), demonstrates a simple problem where an observer uses an underlying Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to track a target in one dimension. In this implementation, sensors make noisy observations of the target position at discrete time steps. The tracker learns the transition model for target movement, and the observation model for the noisy sensors, and uses these to estimate the target position by solving the Bayesian recursive equation online. We show the tracking performance of the system and demonstrate how it can learn the observation model, the transition model, and the external distractor (noise) probability interfering with the observations. In the second implementation, referred to as the Bayesian INference in DAG (BIND), we show how inference can be performed in a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) using stochastic circuits. We show how these building blocks can be easily implemented using simple digital logic gates. An advantage of the stochastic electronic implementation is that it is robust to certain types of noise, which may become an issue in integrated circuit (IC) technology with feature sizes in the order of tens of nanometers due to their low noise margin, the effect of high-energy cosmic rays and the low supply voltage. In our framework, the flipping of random individual bits would not affect the system performance because information is encoded in a bit stream.

  6. Forensic scientists' conclusions: how readable are they for non-scientist report-users?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howes, Loene M; Kirkbride, K Paul; Kelty, Sally F; Julian, Roberta; Kemp, Nenagh

    2013-09-10

    Scientists have an ethical responsibility to assist non-scientists to understand their findings and expert opinions before they are used as decision-aids within the criminal justice system. The communication of scientific expert opinion to non-scientist audiences (e.g., police, lawyers, and judges) through expert reports is an important but under-researched issue. Readability statistics were used to assess 111 conclusions from a proficiency test in forensic glass analysis. The conclusions were written using an average of 23 words per sentence, and approximately half of the conclusions were expressed using the active voice. At an average Flesch-Kincaid Grade level of university undergraduate (Grade 13), and Flesch Reading Ease score of difficult (42), the conclusions were written at a level suitable for people with some tertiary education in science, suggesting that the intended non-scientist readers would find them difficult to read. To further analyse the readability of conclusions, descriptive features of text were used: text structure; sentence structure; vocabulary; elaboration; and coherence and unity. Descriptive analysis supported the finding that texts were written at a level difficult for non-scientists to read. Specific aspects of conclusions that may pose difficulties for non-scientists were located. Suggestions are included to assist scientists to write conclusions with increased readability for non-scientist readers, while retaining scientific integrity. In the next stage of research, the readability of expert reports in their entirety is to be explored. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Children's and adults' judgments of the certainty of deductive inferences, inductive inferences, and guesses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pillow, Bradford H; Pearson, Raeanne M; Hecht, Mary; Bremer, Amanda

    2010-01-01

    Children and adults rated their own certainty following inductive inferences, deductive inferences, and guesses. Beginning in kindergarten, participants rated deductions as more certain than weak inductions or guesses. Deductions were rated as more certain than strong inductions beginning in Grade 3, and fourth-grade children and adults differentiated strong inductions, weak inductions, and informed guesses from pure guesses. By Grade 3, participants also gave different types of explanations for their deductions and inductions. These results are discussed in relation to children's concepts of cognitive processes, logical reasoning, and epistemological development.

  8. Robust Inference with Multi-way Clustering

    OpenAIRE

    A. Colin Cameron; Jonah B. Gelbach; Douglas L. Miller; Doug Miller

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we propose a variance estimator for the OLS estimator as well as for nonlinear estimators such as logit, probit and GMM. This variance estimator enables cluster-robust inference when there is two-way or multi-way clustering that is non-nested. The variance estimator extends the standard cluster-robust variance estimator or sandwich estimator for one-way clustering (e.g. Liang and Zeger (1986), Arellano (1987)) and relies on similar relatively weak distributional assumptions. Our...

  9. Approximate Inference and Deep Generative Models

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2018-01-01

    Advances in deep generative models are at the forefront of deep learning research because of the promise they offer for allowing data-efficient learning, and for model-based reinforcement learning. In this talk I'll review a few standard methods for approximate inference and introduce modern approximations which allow for efficient large-scale training of a wide variety of generative models. Finally, I'll demonstrate several important application of these models to density estimation, missing data imputation, data compression and planning.

  10. Abductive Inference using Array-Based Logic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frisvad, Jeppe Revall; Falster, Peter; Møller, Gert L.

    The notion of abduction has found its usage within a wide variety of AI fields. Computing abductive solutions has, however, shown to be highly intractable in logic programming. To avoid this intractability we present a new approach to logicbased abduction; through the geometrical view of data...... employed in array-based logic we embrace abduction in a simple structural operation. We argue that a theory of abduction on this form allows for an implementation which, at runtime, can perform abductive inference quite efficiently on arbitrary rules of logic representing knowledge of finite domains....

  11. Generic Patch Inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jesper; Lawall, Julia Laetitia

    2008-01-01

    A key issue in maintaining Linux device drivers is the need to update drivers in response to evolutions in Linux internal libraries. Currently, there is little tool support for performing and documenting such changes. In this paper we present a tool, spfind, that identifies common changes made...... developers can use it to extract an abstract representation of the set of changes that others have made. Our experiments on recent changes in Linux show that the inferred generic patches are more concise than the corresponding patches found in commits to the Linux source tree while being safe with respect...

  12. Inverse Ising Inference Using All the Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aurell, Erik; Ekeberg, Magnus

    2012-03-01

    We show that a method based on logistic regression, using all the data, solves the inverse Ising problem far better than mean-field calculations relying only on sample pairwise correlation functions, while still computationally feasible for hundreds of nodes. The largest improvement in reconstruction occurs for strong interactions. Using two examples, a diluted Sherrington-Kirkpatrick model and a two-dimensional lattice, we also show that interaction topologies can be recovered from few samples with good accuracy and that the use of l1 regularization is beneficial in this process, pushing inference abilities further into low-temperature regimes.

  13. Defense islands in bacterial and archaeal genomes and prediction of novel defense systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makarova, Kira S; Wolf, Yuri I; Snir, Sagi; Koonin, Eugene V

    2011-11-01

    The arms race between cellular life forms and viruses is a major driving force of evolution. A substantial fraction of bacterial and archaeal genomes is dedicated to antivirus defense. We analyzed the distribution of defense genes and typical mobilome components (such as viral and transposon genes) in bacterial and archaeal genomes and demonstrated statistically significant clustering of antivirus defense systems and mobile genes and elements in genomic islands. The defense islands are enriched in putative operons and contain numerous overrepresented gene families. A detailed sequence analysis of the proteins encoded by genes in these families shows that many of them are diverged variants of known defense system components, whereas others show features, such as characteristic operonic organization, that are suggestive of novel defense systems. Thus, genomic islands provide abundant material for the experimental study of bacterial and archaeal antivirus defense. Except for the CRISPR-Cas systems, different classes of defense systems, in particular toxin-antitoxin and restriction-modification systems, show nonrandom clustering in defense islands. It remains unclear to what extent these associations reflect functional cooperation between different defense systems and to what extent the islands are genomic "sinks" that accumulate diverse nonessential genes, particularly those acquired via horizontal gene transfer. The characteristics of defense islands resemble those of mobilome islands. Defense and mobilome genes are nonrandomly associated in islands, suggesting nonadaptive evolution of the islands via a preferential attachment-like mechanism underpinned by the addictive properties of defense systems such as toxins-antitoxins and an important role of horizontal mobility in the evolution of these islands.

  14. Conclusions of the presidency. European council of Barcelona, March 15 and 16 2002; Conclusions de la presidence. Conseil europeen de Barcelone 15 et 16 mars 2002

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2002-07-01

    This document summarizes the conclusions of the European Council held in Barcelona (Spain) on March 15 and 16, 2002. Among the priority actions listed by the council figure the integration of energy, transportation and communication networks at the European scale. In particular, the council commits the Parliament and itself to start the final phase of opening of gas and electricity markets: free choice of a supplier, obligation of public utility, security of supplies, separation between transmission and distribution and between production and supply, non-discriminatory access of consumers and suppliers to networks with transparent tariffs, establishment of a regulatory agency in each member state, agreement for a tariffing system for the international electricity trades etc.. Concerning the sustainable development strategy of the European union, the council is pressing the member states for the completion of the national procedures of ratification of the Kyoto protocol. However, new measures need to be taken to develop technologies respectful for the environment, in particular in the domain of energy and transports. (J.S.)

  15. Should the Department of Defense Transfer the Defense Logistics Agency's Map Functions to the Defense Working Capital Fund

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Zimmerman, Donald

    2000-01-01

    .... The functions cost about $25 million annually and are funded by operations and maintenance (O&M) dollars. This study analyzed if the functions should be transferred to the Defense Working Capital Fund...

  16. Inferring the role of transcription factors in regulatory networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Le Borgne Michel

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Expression profiles obtained from multiple perturbation experiments are increasingly used to reconstruct transcriptional regulatory networks, from well studied, simple organisms up to higher eukaryotes. Admittedly, a key ingredient in developing a reconstruction method is its ability to integrate heterogeneous sources of information, as well as to comply with practical observability issues: measurements can be scarce or noisy. In this work, we show how to combine a network of genetic regulations with a set of expression profiles, in order to infer the functional effect of the regulations, as inducer or repressor. Our approach is based on a consistency rule between a network and the signs of variation given by expression arrays. Results We evaluate our approach in several settings of increasing complexity. First, we generate artificial expression data on a transcriptional network of E. coli extracted from the literature (1529 nodes and 3802 edges, and we estimate that 30% of the regulations can be annotated with about 30 profiles. We additionally prove that at most 40.8% of the network can be inferred using our approach. Second, we use this network in order to validate the predictions obtained with a compendium of real expression profiles. We describe a filtering algorithm that generates particularly reliable predictions. Finally, we apply our inference approach to S. cerevisiae transcriptional network (2419 nodes and 4344 interactions, by combining ChIP-chip data and 15 expression profiles. We are able to detect and isolate inconsistencies between the expression profiles and a significant portion of the model (15% of all the interactions. In addition, we report predictions for 14.5% of all interactions. Conclusion Our approach does not require accurate expression levels nor times series. Nevertheless, we show on both data, real and artificial, that a relatively small number of perturbation experiments are enough to determine

  17. Improved functional overview of protein complexes using inferred epistatic relationships

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Ryan, Colm

    2011-05-23

    Abstract Background Epistatic Miniarray Profiling(E-MAP) quantifies the net effect on growth rate of disrupting pairs of genes, often producing phenotypes that may be more (negative epistasis) or less (positive epistasis) severe than the phenotype predicted based on single gene disruptions. Epistatic interactions are important for understanding cell biology because they define relationships between individual genes, and between sets of genes involved in biochemical pathways and protein complexes. Each E-MAP screen quantifies the interactions between a logically selected subset of genes (e.g. genes whose products share a common function). Interactions that occur between genes involved in different cellular processes are not as frequently measured, yet these interactions are important for providing an overview of cellular organization. Results We introduce a method for combining overlapping E-MAP screens and inferring new interactions between them. We use this method to infer with high confidence 2,240 new strongly epistatic interactions and 34,469 weakly epistatic or neutral interactions. We show that accuracy of the predicted interactions approaches that of replicate experiments and that, like measured interactions, they are enriched for features such as shared biochemical pathways and knockout phenotypes. We constructed an expanded epistasis map for yeast cell protein complexes and show that our new interactions increase the evidence for previously proposed inter-complex connections, and predict many new links. We validated a number of these in the laboratory, including new interactions linking the SWR-C chromatin modifying complex and the nuclear transport apparatus. Conclusion Overall, our data support a modular model of yeast cell protein network organization and show how prediction methods can considerably extend the information that can be extracted from overlapping E-MAP screens.

  18. Three Mile Island unit 2 vessel investigation project. Conclusions and significance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beckjord, E.S.

    1994-01-01

    At the conclusion of the TMI-2 Vessel Investigation Project, additional insights about the accident have been gained, specifically in the area of reactor vessel integrity and the conditions of the lower head of the reactor vessel. This paper discusses three topics: the evolving views about the TMI-2 accident scenario over time, the technical conclusions of the TMI-2 VIP (recovery of samples from the vessel lower head), and the broad significance of these findings (accident management). 4 refs

  19. Funding source, conflict of interest and positive conclusions in neuro-oncology clinical trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moraes, Fabio Y; Mendez, Lucas C; Taunk, Neil K; Raman, Srinivas; Suh, John H; Souhami, Luis; Slotman, Ben; Weltman, Eduardo; Spratt, Daniel E; Berlin, Alejandro; Marta, Gustavo N

    2018-02-01

    We aimed to test any association between authors' conclusions and self-reported COI or funding sources in central nervous system (CNS) studies. A review was performed for CNS malignancy clinical trials published in the last 5 years. Two investigators independently classified study conclusions according to authors' endorsement of the experimental therapy. Statistical models were used to test for associations between positive conclusions and trials characteristics. From February 2010 to February 2015, 1256 articles were retrieved; 319 were considered eligible trials. Positive conclusions were reported in 56.8% of trials with industry-only, 55.6% with academia-only, 44.1% with academia and industry, 77.8% with none, and 76.4% with not described funding source (p = 0.011). Positive conclusions were reported in 60.4% of trials with unrelated COI, 60% with related COI, and 60% with no COI reported (p = 0.997). Factors that were significantly associated with the presence of positive conclusion included trials design (phase 1) [OR 11.64 (95 CI 4.66-29.09), p source [OR 2.45 (95 CI 1.22-5.22), p = 0.011]. In a multivariable regression model, all these factors remained significantly associated with trial's positive conclusion. Funding source and self-reported COI did not appear to influence the CNS trials conclusion. Funding source information and COI disclosure were under-reported in 14.1 and 17.2% of the CNS trials. Continued efforts are needed to increase rates of both COI and funding source reporting.

  20. Application of Artificial Neural Networks in the Heart Electrical Axis Position Conclusion Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakanovskaya, L. N.

    2016-08-01

    The article touches upon building of a heart electrical axis position conclusion model using an artificial neural network. The input signals of the neural network are the values of deflections Q, R and S; and the output signal is the value of the heart electrical axis position. Training of the network is carried out by the error propagation method. The test results allow concluding that the created neural network makes a conclusion with a high degree of accuracy.