WorldWideScience

Sample records for defensible inferences conclusions

  1. Hilbertian sine as an absolute measure of Bayesian inference in ISR, homeland security, medicine, and defense

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jannson, Tomasz; Wang, Wenjian; Hodelin, Juan; Forrester, Thomas; Romanov, Volodymyr; Kostrzewski, Andrew

    2016-05-01

    In this paper, Bayesian Binary Sensing (BBS) is discussed as an effective tool for Bayesian Inference (BI) evaluation in interdisciplinary areas such as ISR (and, C3I), Homeland Security, QC, medicine, defense, and many others. In particular, Hilbertian Sine (HS) as an absolute measure of BI, is introduced, while avoiding relativity of decision threshold identification, as in the case of traditional measures of BI, related to false positives and false negatives.

  2. Inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jesper

    .1 with the title ‘Inference'.) This contribution concerns statistical inference for parametric models used in stochastic geometry and based on quick and simple simulation free procedures as well as more comprehensive methods using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations. Due to space limitations the focus...

  3. Inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jesper

    2010-01-01

    Chapter 9: This contribution concerns statistical inference for parametric models used in stochastic geometry and based on quick and simple simulation free procedures as well as more comprehensive methods based on a maximum likelihood or Bayesian approach combined with markov chain Monte Carlo...

  4. Sweet Conclusion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shirley, Britt M.; Wooldridge, Barbara Ross; Camp, Kerri M.

    2012-01-01

    Jen Harrington is the owner and pastry chef of Sweet Conclusion, a bakery in Tampa, Florida. Most of Harrington's business comes from baking wedding cakes, but she has been attempting to attract customers to her retail bakery, where she sells cupcakes, pies, ice cream, and coffee. Nearly four years she opened Sweet Conclusion, the retail part of…

  5. A defense of Columbo (and of the use of Bayesian inference in forensics): A multilevel introduction to probabilistic reasoning

    CERN Document Server

    D'Agostini, G

    2010-01-01

    Triggered by a recent interesting New Scientist article on the too frequent incorrect use of probabilistic evidence in courts, I introduce the basic concepts of probabilistic inference with a toy model, and discuss several important issues that need to be understood in order to extend the basic reasoning to real life cases. In particular, I emphasize the often neglected point that degrees of beliefs are updated not by `bare facts' alone, but by all available information pertaining to them, including how they have been acquired. In this light I show that, contrary to what claimed in that article, there was no "probabilistic pitfall" in the Columbo's episode pointed as example of "bad mathematics" yielding "rough justice". Instead, such a criticism could have a `negative reaction' to the article itself and to the use of Bayesian reasoning in courts, as well as in all other places in which probabilities need to be assessed and decisions need to be made. Anyway, besides introductory/recreational aspects, the pape...

  6. Conclusions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Franklin, Mark; Nielsen, Julie Hassing

    2016-01-01

    Drawing on the findings of the previous chapters, we assess whether it continues to be helpful for European Parliament (EP) elections to be termed “second order” and/or “second rate”. The 2014 EP elections were indeed still second rate and also predominantly second order. Being “about Europe”, wh...... EP elections is likely to be reflected in later national elections and the circumstances in which those results could lead to substantial policy and/or membership changes in the European Union (EU)....

  7. Conclusion

    OpenAIRE

    Dubasque, François

    2015-01-01

    Lorsque Jean Hennessy entre en politique, rien ne laisse présager un parcours si complexe et déroutant ! Les étapes marquantes d’un itinéraire politique Issu de la grande bourgeoisie négociante, il bénéficie d’un capital d’influence politique, économique et social légué par sa famille. Or, le processus de démocratisation du recrutement du personnel politique dans la première moitié du xxe siècle aboutit à la marginalisation progressive de ceux pour qui le moyen d’accéder aux échelons du pouvo...

  8. Conclusion

    OpenAIRE

    Guibet-Lafaye, Caroline

    2013-01-01

    L’ensemble de ces analyses a permis de montrer que « le bonheur n’est ni une course effrénée au toujours plus et toujours tournée vers l’avenir, ni l’unique nostalgie du passé » (Proust) pas plus qu’il n’est la simple somme des plaisirs de la vie à laquelle seraient soustraits les maux subis. Le bonheur est bien plutôt un état – c’est-à-dire pas seulement un sentiment – de bien-être dépendant d’une pluralité de facteurs. Selon la perspective à partir de laquelle on l’appréhende (la psychologi...

  9. Conclusion

    OpenAIRE

    Le Bart, Christian

    2015-01-01

    Résumons notre démonstration : La découverte des Beatles rend possibles des expériences intimes de plongée en soi. Le passionné a le sentiment de se découvrir au contact de la musique. Cette passion, à ce stade discrète, le singularise par rapport à son environnement immédiat (famille, amis…). On parlera de stratégie de différenciation. Cette stratégie peut conduire au sentiment d’une certaine incompréhension, d’une certaine solitude. La rencontre d’autres passionnés rassure dans un premier t...

  10. Conclusion

    OpenAIRE

    Félix, Joël

    2013-01-01

    La politique économique et financière de L’Averdy s’est fortement inspirée des réflexions de l’administration et des idées des économistes du milieu du xviiie siècle. Sa principale ambition fut d’améliorer les réformes financières de Machault d’Arnouville pour justifier, d’abord, le principe de l’imposition des rentes et doter, ensuite, la monarchie d’une structure d’amortissement de ses dettes pour greffer le financement des dépenses publiques sur la croissance économique. Les contraintes fi...

  11. Conclusion

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2004-01-01

    @@ ASEAN has become one of the centers in India's foreign policies, strategic concerns and economic interest, and also an outpost for India to go east to the Asia Pacific Area.19 The first phase of India's "Look East" policy is to fully restore its engagement with ASEAN and concentrate on forging trade and investment ties with the ASEAN countries, this task has already been fulfilled.

  12. Conclusion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, Steven M.; Wong, Terry T.

    2011-01-01

    This compilation of papers in this book represents approximately half of the works discussed at the MS&T 2010 symposium entitled Tools, Models, Databases, and Simulation Tools Developed and Needed to Realize the Vision of Integrated Computational Materials Engineering at Materials Science & Technology wherein five sessions comprised of 33 presentations was organized. The goal of the symposium was two fold To provide a forum in which current state-of-the-art methods for ICME (e.g., information informatics, experimentation, and modeling) could be openly discussed and critiqued by not only materials scientist but also structural engineers/researchers, component designers, industrial leaders and government program managers. To leave the symposium and in particular the panel discussion with a clear idea of the gaps and barriers (both technical, cultural and economical) that must be addressed in order for ICME to fully succeed. The organizers felt that these goals were met, as particularly evident by the standing room only attendance during a lively panel discussion session at the end of the Symposium. However it is the firm belief of the editors of this book that this symposium was merely a start in the right direction, and that subsequent conferences/symposium (e.g., First World Congress on Integrated Computational Materials Engineering to be held July 10-14, 2011 at Seven Springs Mountain Resort in Pennsylvania) must work hard to ensure that a truly diverse, multidisciplinary, community of researchers and practitioners are present and have ample opportunity for interaction. This will ensure that a proper balance between push and pull disciplines and technologies is maintained so that this emerging focus area, Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME), has the greatest potential for success and impact on "system-level" payoffs. Similarly, a pro-active approach is required to reform historical modes of operation in industry, government and the academic sectors so as to facilitate multidisciplinary collaboration and to clearly articulate the vision and scope of ICME.

  13. Conclusion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Christian Helms; Wallo, Andreas; Toiviainen, Hanna;

    2015-01-01

    production and knowledge-work offer growing learning opportunities to people throughout their active working life. In contrast to the stable and standardised modes of Fordist production, modern working life is characterised by rapid changes and employees interacting across globally distributed professional...... and spatial production networks. Based on continuous relationships of mutual exchange and knowledge building between customers, suppliers and producers, these kinds of learning environments are essentially different from those offered in a school setting. More research is needed to explore the opportunities...

  14. Conclusion

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2004-01-01

    @@ One of the major contributions of economic integration to European unification lies in its transformation of traditional European balance concepts and structures. This unification model shows that mere economic and trade ties cannot basically change state relations.

  15. Conclusion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sandøy, Helge; Kristiansen, Tore

    2010-01-01

    1. Comparing empirical findings with the “mountain peak model” In the introduction to this volume, we presented a “mountain peak model” of Nordic purism based on evidence showing that language scholars and lay people are very much in agreement as to where we find the more purist languages and com...

  16. Conclusion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sandøy, Helge; Kristiansen, Tore

    2010-01-01

    1. Comparing empirical findings with the “mountain peak model” In the introduction to this volume, we presented a “mountain peak model” of Nordic purism based on evidence showing that language scholars and lay people are very much in agreement as to where we find the more purist languages...

  17. Conclusion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miquel Strubell

    2004-04-01

    Full Text Available In this brief document, the director of the UOC's Humanities degree, Miquel Strubell, concludes the Dossier focusing on the subject that acted as the catalyst for the 1st Conference on "Humanities Professions in the Knowledge Society", highlighting those areas for debate that, from his point of view, are most interesting and attractive in terms of setting limits and facing up to the problems the degree has at this time of the coming together to form a European university space.

  18. Summaries of Conclusions and Recommendations on Department of Defense Operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1983-03-04

    feiiiyfo w es mercial buildings as hotels and motels that have been dategnte exanio flexibility for twopibeds. Status: Action in...33) 19 ing (LCD80-9) 91 Mangement of DOD’s Shelf-Life (MASAD-82-5) 122 Establishing Goals for and Subcon- Program--Better, but Still in Need of

  19. Ecological Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Gary; Rosen, Ori; Tanner, Martin A.

    2004-09-01

    This collection of essays brings together a diverse group of scholars to survey the latest strategies for solving ecological inference problems in various fields. The last half-decade has witnessed an explosion of research in ecological inference--the process of trying to infer individual behavior from aggregate data. Although uncertainties and information lost in aggregation make ecological inference one of the most problematic types of research to rely on, these inferences are required in many academic fields, as well as by legislatures and the Courts in redistricting, by business in marketing research, and by governments in policy analysis.

  20. Causal inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard Shoemaker

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Establishing causality has been a problem throughout history of philosophy of science. This paper discusses the philosophy of causal inference along the different school of thoughts and methods: Rationalism, Empiricism, Inductive method, Hypothetical deductive method with pros and cons. The article it starting from the Problem of Hume, also close to the positions of Russell, Carnap, Popper and Kuhn to better understand the modern interpretation and implications of causal inference in epidemiological research.

  1. [SENTIERI Project: discussion and conclusions].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pirastu, Roberta; Ricci, Paolo; Comba, Pietro; Bianchi, Fabrizio; Biggeri, Annibale; Conti, Susanna; Fazzo, Lucia; Forastiere, Francesco; Iavarone, Ivano; Martuzzi, Marco; Musmeci, Loredana; Pasetto, Roberto; Zona, Amerigo; Crocetti, Emanuele

    2014-01-01

    showing the increase, considering latency and the length of the observation period. Of further interest are results relating to diseases of the urinary tract such as kidney failure in the NPCSs of Basso bacino del fiume Chienti, Taranto, Milazzo and Priolo. Overall, the results discussed above are consistent with the previous findings pertaining to mortality for 1995-2002. The present analysis also introduces a new element - the study of cancer incidence and hospital discharges - which can tell us a great deal about diseases with high survival rates or non lethal ones. The first is the case of thyroid cancer, which presents increases in both databases and for both genders in a number of NPCSs (Brescia-Caffaro, Laghi di Mantova, Milazzo, Sassuolo- Scandiano and Taranto). The study of cancer incidence and hospital discharges also revealed cancer excesses for melanoma, breast cancer and non Hodgkin lymphoma in Brescia-Caffaro NPCS where PCBs (Polychlorinated biphenyl) are the site's main pollutant. PCBs, according to the 2013 evaluation of the International Agency for Research on Cancer, are ascertained human carcinogens for melanoma and probable carcinogens for breast cancer and non-Hodgkin lymphoma. The results pertaining to cancer incidence in the 17 NPCSs can also be presented using rankings by area or disease analyzed by a multivariate hierarchical Bayesian model. These rankings reveal an overlapping of credibility intervals, such that it is not possible to speak of a limited number of cancer sites or of certain NPCSs as being particularly affected. Every NPCS, therefore, must be considered individually and ordering them by ranking of cancer incidence wouldn't be appropriate. Data collected concerning some of the NPCSs in the context of the SENTIERI Project is so conclusive that remediation measures can immediately be put in place. This is the case in the Biancavilla and Brescia-Caffaro NPCSs. A similar conclusion can be drawn for complex locations such as Taranto

  2. Statistical inference

    CERN Document Server

    Rohatgi, Vijay K

    2003-01-01

    Unified treatment of probability and statistics examines and analyzes the relationship between the two fields, exploring inferential issues. Numerous problems, examples, and diagrams--some with solutions--plus clear-cut, highlighted summaries of results. Advanced undergraduate to graduate level. Contents: 1. Introduction. 2. Probability Model. 3. Probability Distributions. 4. Introduction to Statistical Inference. 5. More on Mathematical Expectation. 6. Some Discrete Models. 7. Some Continuous Models. 8. Functions of Random Variables and Random Vectors. 9. Large-Sample Theory. 10. General Meth

  3. Epistemology applied to conclusions of expert reports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucena-Molina, Jose-Juan

    2016-07-01

    It is believed that to build a robust reasoning logic to make probabilistic inferences in forensic science from a merely mathematical or logistical viewpoint is not enough. Mathematical logic is the positive science of reasoning and as for that it is only interested in the positive calculus of its validity, regardless any prior ontological assumption. But without a determined ontology and epistemology which imply to define the concepts that they will use, it seems difficult that the proposed scientifically correct mathematical solution be successful as a European standard for making conclusions in forensic reports because it has to be based on judicial language. Forensic experts and Courts are not interested in the development of a positive science but in a practical science: in clarifying whether certain known facts are related to a possible crime. Therefore, not only the coherence of the demonstrative logic reasoning used (logic of propositions) is important, but also the precision of the concepts used by language and consistency among them in reasoning (logic of concepts). There is a linguistic level essential for a successful communication between the forensic practitioner and the Court which is mainly related, in our opinion, to semantics and figures of speech. The first one is involved because words used in forensic conclusions often have different meanings - it is said that they are polysemic - and the second one because there is often metonymy as well. Besides, semantic differences among languages regarding words with the same etymological root add another difficulty for a better mutual understanding. The two main European judicial systems inherit a wide and deep culture related to evidence in criminal proceedings and each of them has coined their own terminology but there are other two more abstract levels such as logical and epistemological, where we can find solid arguments by which terms used at legal level on conclusions of forensic reports could be

  4. [Benchmarking in health care: conclusions and recommendations].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geraedts, Max; Selbmann, Hans-Konrad

    2011-01-01

    The German Health Ministry funded 10 demonstration projects and accompanying research of benchmarking in health care. The accompanying research work aimed to infer generalisable findings and recommendations. We performed a meta-evaluation of the demonstration projects and analysed national and international approaches to benchmarking in health care. It was found that the typical benchmarking sequence is hardly ever realised. Most projects lack a detailed analysis of structures and processes of the best performers as a starting point for the process of learning from and adopting best practice. To tap the full potential of benchmarking in health care, participation in voluntary benchmarking projects should be promoted that have been demonstrated to follow all the typical steps of a benchmarking process.

  5. Antioxidative defense

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stevanović Jelka

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Free radicals occur constantly during metabolism and take part in numerous physiological processes, such as: intra-cellular and inter-cellular signalization, gene expression, removal of damaged or senescent cells, and control of the tone of blood vessels. However, there is an increased quantity of free radicals in situations of so-called oxidative stress, when they cause serious damage to cellular membranes (peroxidation of their lipids, damage of membrane proteins, and similar, to interior cellular protein molecules, as well as DNA molecules and carbohydrates. This is precisely why the organism has developed numerous mechanisms for removing free radicals and/or preventing their production. Some of these are enzyme-related and include superoxide-dismutase, catalase, glutathione-peroxidase, and others. Other, non-enzyme mechanisms, imply antioxidative activities of vitamins E and C, provitamin A, coenzyme Q, reduced glutation, and others. Since free radicals can leave the cell that has produced them and become dispersed throughout the body, in addition to antioxidative defense that functions within cellular structures, antioxidant extra-cellular defense has also been developed. This is comprised by: transferrin, lactoferrin, haptoglobin, hemopexin, ceruloplasmin, albumins, extra-cellular isoform SOD, extracellular glutathione-peroxidase, glucose, bilirubin, urates, and many other molecules.

  6. Results and conclusion; Resultados e conclusoes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2009-10-15

    This chapter shows the results and conclusions of the ordered studies by the Science and Technology Ministry from Brazil to the Center of Management and Strategic Studies (CGEE), executed by a multidisciplinary team, most of UNICAMP - State University of Campinas, SP - for evaluation of Brazilian capacity and potential in the production of fuel bioethanol.

  7. Cyber defense and situational awareness

    CERN Document Server

    Kott, Alexander; Erbacher, Robert F

    2015-01-01

    This book is the first publication to give a comprehensive, structured treatment to the important topic of situational awareness in cyber defense. It presents the subject in a logical, consistent, continuous discourse, covering key topics such as formation of cyber situational awareness, visualization and human factors, automated learning and inference, use of ontologies and metrics, predicting and assessing impact of cyber attacks, and achieving resilience of cyber and physical mission. Chapters include case studies, recent research results and practical insights described specifically for th

  8. Millian superiorities and the repugnant conclusion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Karsten Klint

    2008-01-01

    James Griffin has considered a form of superiority in value that is weaker than lexical priority as a possible remedy to the Repugnant Conclusion. In this article, I demonstrate that, in a context where value is additive, this weaker form collapses into the stronger form of superiority. And in a ......James Griffin has considered a form of superiority in value that is weaker than lexical priority as a possible remedy to the Repugnant Conclusion. In this article, I demonstrate that, in a context where value is additive, this weaker form collapses into the stronger form of superiority...... of these results for different interpretations of Griffin's suggestion regarding population ethics. None of them comes out very successful, but perhaps they nevertheless retain some interest....

  9. Power and Democracy in Denmark. Conclusions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jørgen Goul; Christiansen, Peter Munk; Beck Jørgensen, Torben

    In 1997, the Danish Parliament decided to launch a power study, officially An Analysis of Democracy and Power in Denmark. A steering committee consisting of five independent researchers was assigned responsibility for the project. The Steering Committee has gathered the overall conclusions from...... the numerous projects under the Power Study, and this book is a short presentation of these conclusions.The main focus of the book is the state of democracy in Denmark at the dawn of the 21st century. How has democracy fared, has the development made things better or worse, and to which extent does...... contemporary democracy live up to our democratic ideals? The answer is that in many ways democracy is doing better than we might have expected, considering the intense pressure on the nation state and the democratic institutions in the postwar period. The Danish population is still full of democratic life...

  10. An inference engine for embedded diagnostic systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, Barry R.; Brewster, Larry T.

    1987-01-01

    The implementation of an inference engine for embedded diagnostic systems is described. The system consists of two distinct parts. The first is an off-line compiler which accepts a propositional logical statement of the relationship between facts and conclusions and produces data structures required by the on-line inference engine. The second part consists of the inference engine and interface routines which accept assertions of fact and return the conclusions which necessarily follow. Given a set of assertions, it will generate exactly the conclusions which logically follow. At the same time, it will detect any inconsistencies which may propagate from an inconsistent set of assertions or a poorly formulated set of rules. The memory requirements are fixed and the worst case execution times are bounded at compile time. The data structures and inference algorithms are very simple and well understood. The data structures and algorithms are described in detail. The system has been implemented on Lisp, Pascal, and Modula-2.

  11. Superiority in value and the repugnant conclusion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Karsten Klint

    2007-01-01

    James Griffin has considered a weak form of superiority in value a possible remedy to the Repugnant Conclusion. In this paper, I demonstrate that, in a context where value is additive, this weaker form collapses into a stronger form of superiority. And in a context where value is non-additive, weak...... superiority does not amount to a radical value difference at all. I then spell out the consequences of these results for different interpretations of Griffin's suggestion regarding population ethics. None of them comes out very successful, but perhaps they nevertheless retain some interest....

  12. SEMANTIC PATCH INFERENCE

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jesper

    2009-01-01

    Collateral evolution the problem of updating several library-using programs in response to API changes in the used library. In this dissertation we address the issue of understanding collateral evolutions by automatically inferring a high-level specification of the changes evident in a given set ...... specifications inferred by spdiff in Linux are shown. We find that the inferred specifications concisely capture the actual collateral evolution performed in the examples....

  13. Only one simple conclusion about the climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaremko, G.

    2000-07-24

    Findings concerning climate change, by a three-man team of scientists from the North Dakota Geological Survey, which were presented in a paper read at the Eight International Williston Basin Horizontal Well Workshop, are discussed. The survey by the three scientists covered more than 6,000 scholarly publications. It reported that while the rise in the Earth's temperature is beyond argument, there is anything but agreement as to the causes, or whether the trend is unusual enough to justify concerted and costly actions to change lifestyles. It is shown by direct instrumental measurements that the average temperature at the Earth's surface increased about 0.8 degree Celsius between 1866 and 1998. During that time the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increased from 280 to 353 parts per million. While it is generally assumed that the global warming was caused by human activities, new techniques of measurement such as glacier ice coring, dendrochronology (tree-growth rings), lichenometry (measuring the diameter of lichens) and counting concentrations of oxygen 18 and 16 (isotopes whose presence in marine fossils varies depending on temperature) suggest that most of the global warming took place before the increase in carbon dioxide concentration occurred, raising the possibility that the increase in average temperature had causes other than the increase in greenhouse gases. Some of the studies reviewed by the group show that in Europe between ice ages during the Eemian period, some 135,000 to 110,000 years ago, temperature variations of seven degrees Celsius took place; they dropped from two degree Celsius warmer than today to five degree Celsius colder than today. Based on these findings the group's only firm conclusion was that climate is in a continual flux.

  14. Inference in `poor` languages

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Petrov, S.

    1996-10-01

    Languages with a solvable implication problem but without complete and consistent systems of inference rules (`poor` languages) are considered. The problem of existence of finite complete and consistent inference rule system for a ``poor`` language is stated independently of the language or rules syntax. Several properties of the problem arc proved. An application of results to the language of join dependencies is given.

  15. Conclusiones y recomendaciones Conclusions and recommendations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María Saquero Martínez

    2006-12-01

    following technical conclusions and recommendations.This document, which is intended to be practical and operational, has been reviewed and agreed by all speakers and by the Scientific Committee of the Conference, and is written in the key of pending tasks to be addressed by both public authorities and companies in the sector and holders hazard installations.

  16. Knowledge and inference

    CERN Document Server

    Nagao, Makoto

    1990-01-01

    Knowledge and Inference discusses an important problem for software systems: How do we treat knowledge and ideas on a computer and how do we use inference to solve problems on a computer? The book talks about the problems of knowledge and inference for the purpose of merging artificial intelligence and library science. The book begins by clarifying the concept of """"knowledge"""" from many points of view, followed by a chapter on the current state of library science and the place of artificial intelligence in library science. Subsequent chapters cover central topics in the artificial intellig

  17. Probability and Statistical Inference

    OpenAIRE

    Prosper, Harrison B.

    2006-01-01

    These lectures introduce key concepts in probability and statistical inference at a level suitable for graduate students in particle physics. Our goal is to paint as vivid a picture as possible of the concepts covered.

  18. Introductory statistical inference

    CERN Document Server

    Mukhopadhyay, Nitis

    2014-01-01

    This gracefully organized text reveals the rigorous theory of probability and statistical inference in the style of a tutorial, using worked examples, exercises, figures, tables, and computer simulations to develop and illustrate concepts. Drills and boxed summaries emphasize and reinforce important ideas and special techniques.Beginning with a review of the basic concepts and methods in probability theory, moments, and moment generating functions, the author moves to more intricate topics. Introductory Statistical Inference studies multivariate random variables, exponential families of dist

  19. Recognizing plant defense priming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Martinez-Medina, A.; Flors, V.; Heil, M.; Mauch-Mani, B.; Pieterse, C.M.J.; Pozo, M.J.; Ton, J.; Van Dam, N.M.; Conrath, U.

    2016-01-01

    Defense priming conditions diverse plant species for the superinduction of defense, often resulting in enhanced pest and disease resistance and abiotic stress tolerance. Here, we propose a guideline that might assist the plant research community in a consistent assessment of defense priming in plant

  20. Optimal defense strategies in an idealized microbial food web under trade-off between competition and defense.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Våge, Selina; Storesund, Julia E; Giske, Jarl; Thingstad, T Frede

    2014-01-01

    Trophic mechanisms that can generate biodiversity in food webs include bottom-up (growth rate regulating) and top-down (biomass regulating) factors. The top-down control has traditionally been analyzed using the concepts of "Keystone Predation" (KP) and "Killing-the-Winner" (KtW), predominately occuring in discussions of macro- and micro-biological ecology, respectively. Here we combine the classical diamond-shaped food web structure frequently discussed in KP analyses and the KtW concept by introducing a defense strategist capable of partial defense. A formalized description of a trade-off between the defense-strategist's competitive and defensive ability is included. The analysis reveals a complex topology of the steady state solution with strong relationships between food web structure and the combination of trade-off, defense strategy and the system's nutrient content. Among the results is a difference in defense strategies corresponding to maximum biomass, production, or net growth rate of invading individuals. The analysis thus summons awareness that biomass or production, parameters typically measured in field studies to infer success of particular biota, are not directly acted upon by natural selection. Under coexistence with a competition specialist, a balance of competitive and defensive ability of the defense strategist was found to be evolutionarily stable, whereas stronger defense was optimal under increased nutrient levels in the absence of the pure competition specialist. The findings of success of different defense strategies are discussed with respect to SAR11, a highly successful bacterial clade in the pelagic ocean.

  1. The Bayes Inference Engine

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hanson, K.M.; Cunningham, G.S.

    1996-04-01

    The authors are developing a computer application, called the Bayes Inference Engine, to provide the means to make inferences about models of physical reality within a Bayesian framework. The construction of complex nonlinear models is achieved by a fully object-oriented design. The models are represented by a data-flow diagram that may be manipulated by the analyst through a graphical programming environment. Maximum a posteriori solutions are achieved using a general, gradient-based optimization algorithm. The application incorporates a new technique of estimating and visualizing the uncertainties in specific aspects of the model.

  2. Foundations of Inference

    CERN Document Server

    Knuth, Kevin H

    2010-01-01

    We present a foundation for inference that unites and significantly extends the approaches of Kolmogorov and Cox. Our approach is based on quantifying finite lattices of logical statements in a way that satisfies general lattice symmetries. With other applications in mind, our derivations assume minimal symmetries, relying on neither complementarity nor continuity or differentiability. Each relevant symmetry corresponds to an axiom of quantification, and these axioms are used to derive a unique set of rules governing quantification of the lattice. These rules form the familiar probability calculus. We also derive a unique quantification of divergence and information. Taken together these results form a simple and clear foundation for the quantification of inference.

  3. Making Type Inference Practical

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schwartzbach, Michael Ignatieff; Oxhøj, Nicholas; Palsberg, Jens

    1992-01-01

    We present the implementation of a type inference algorithm for untyped object-oriented programs with inheritance, assignments, and late binding. The algorithm significantly improves our previous one, presented at OOPSLA'91, since it can handle collection classes, such as List, in a useful way. Abo....... Experiments indicate that the implementation type checks as much as 100 lines pr. second. This results in a mature product, on which a number of tools can be based, for example a safety tool, an image compression tool, a code optimization tool, and an annotation tool. This may make type inference for object...

  4. Defense strategies used by two sympatric vineyard moth pests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogelweith, Fanny; Thiéry, Denis; Moret, Yannick; Colin, Eloïse; Motreuil, Sébastien; Moreau, Jérôme

    2014-05-01

    Natural enemies including parasitoids are the major biological cause of mortality among phytophagous insects. In response to parasitism, these insects have evolved a set of defenses to protect themselves, including behavioral, morphological, physiological and immunological barriers. According to life history theory, resources are partitioned to various functions including defense, implying trade-offs among defense mechanisms. In this study we characterized the relative investment in behavioral, physical and immunological defense systems in two sympatric species of Tortricidae (Eupoecilia ambiguella, Lobesia botrana) which are important grapevine moth pests. We also estimated the parasitism by parasitoids in natural populations of both species, to infer the relative success of the investment strategies used by each moth. We demonstrated that larvae invest differently in defense systems according to the species. Relative to L. botrana, E. ambiguella larvae invested more into morphological defenses and less into behavioral defenses, and exhibited lower basal levels of immune defense but strongly responded to immune challenge. L. botrana larvae in a natural population were more heavily parasitized by various parasitoid species than E. ambiguella, suggesting that the efficacy of defense strategies against parasitoids is not equal among species. These results have implications for understanding of regulation in communities, and in the development of biological control strategies for these two grapevine pests.

  5. Defense mutualisms enhance plant diversification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, Marjorie G; Agrawal, Anurag A

    2014-11-18

    The ability of plants to form mutualistic relationships with animal defenders has long been suspected to influence their evolutionary success, both by decreasing extinction risk and by increasing opportunity for speciation through an expanded realized niche. Nonetheless, the hypothesis that defense mutualisms consistently enhance plant diversification across lineages has not been well tested due to a lack of phenotypic and phylogenetic information. Using a global analysis, we show that the >100 vascular plant families in which species have evolved extrafloral nectaries (EFNs), sugar-secreting organs that recruit arthropod mutualists, have twofold higher diversification rates than families that lack species with EFNs. Zooming in on six distantly related plant clades, trait-dependent diversification models confirmed the tendency for lineages with EFNs to display increased rates of diversification. These results were consistent across methodological approaches. Inference using reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to model the placement and number of rate shifts revealed that high net diversification rates in EFN clades were driven by an increased number of positive rate shifts following EFN evolution compared with sister clades, suggesting that EFNs may be indirect facilitators of diversification. Our replicated analysis indicates that defense mutualisms put lineages on a path toward increased diversification rates within and between clades, and is concordant with the hypothesis that mutualistic interactions with animals can have an impact on deep macroevolutionary patterns and enhance plant diversity.

  6. Inference as Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Jane

    2007-01-01

    Inference, or decision making, is seen in curriculum documents as the final step in a statistical investigation. For a formal statistical enquiry this may be associated with sophisticated tests involving probability distributions. For young students without the mathematical background to perform such tests, it is still possible to draw informal…

  7. Moving Target Defense

    CERN Document Server

    Jajodia, Sushil; Swarup, Vipin; Wang, Cliff; Wang, X Sean

    2011-01-01

    Moving Target Defense: Creating Asymmetric Uncertainty for Cyber Threats was developed by a group of leading researchers. It describes the fundamental challenges facing the research community and identifies new promising solution paths. Moving Target Defense which is motivated by the asymmetric costs borne by cyber defenders takes an advantage afforded to attackers and reverses it to advantage defenders. Moving Target Defense is enabled by technical trends in recent years, including virtualization and workload migration on commodity systems, widespread and redundant network connectivity, instr

  8. Dynamic defense workshop :

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crosby, Sean Michael; Doak, Justin E.; Haas, Jason Juedes.; Helinski, Ryan; Lamb, Christopher C.

    2013-02-01

    On September 5th and 6th, 2012, the Dynamic Defense Workshop: From Research to Practice brought together researchers from academia, industry, and Sandia with the goals of increasing collaboration between Sandia National Laboratories and external organizations, de ning and un- derstanding dynamic, or moving target, defense concepts and directions, and gaining a greater understanding of the state of the art for dynamic defense. Through the workshop, we broadened and re ned our de nition and understanding, identi ed new approaches to inherent challenges, and de ned principles of dynamic defense. Half of the workshop was devoted to presentations of current state-of-the-art work. Presentation topics included areas such as the failure of current defenses, threats, techniques, goals of dynamic defense, theory, foundations of dynamic defense, future directions and open research questions related to dynamic defense. The remainder of the workshop was discussion, which was broken down into sessions on de ning challenges, applications to host or mobile environments, applications to enterprise network environments, exploring research and operational taxonomies, and determining how to apply scienti c rigor to and investigating the eld of dynamic defense.

  9. The Importance of Statistical Modeling in Data Analysis and Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rollins, Derrick, Sr.

    2017-01-01

    Statistical inference simply means to draw a conclusion based on information that comes from data. Error bars are the most commonly used tool for data analysis and inference in chemical engineering data studies. This work demonstrates, using common types of data collection studies, the importance of specifying the statistical model for sound…

  10. Causal inference in econometrics

    CERN Document Server

    Kreinovich, Vladik; Sriboonchitta, Songsak

    2016-01-01

    This book is devoted to the analysis of causal inference which is one of the most difficult tasks in data analysis: when two phenomena are observed to be related, it is often difficult to decide whether one of them causally influences the other one, or whether these two phenomena have a common cause. This analysis is the main focus of this volume. To get a good understanding of the causal inference, it is important to have models of economic phenomena which are as accurate as possible. Because of this need, this volume also contains papers that use non-traditional economic models, such as fuzzy models and models obtained by using neural networks and data mining techniques. It also contains papers that apply different econometric models to analyze real-life economic dependencies.

  11. Russell and Humean Inferences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    João Paulo Monteiro

    2001-12-01

    Full Text Available Russell's The Problems of Philosophy tries to establish a new theory of induction, at the same time that Hume is there accused of an irrational/ scepticism about induction". But a careful analysis of the theory of knowledge explicitly acknowledged by Hume reveals that, contrary to the standard interpretation in the XXth century, possibly influenced by Russell, Hume deals exclusively with causal inference (which he never classifies as "causal induction", although now we are entitled to do so, never with inductive inference in general, mainly generalizations about sensible qualities of objects ( whether, e.g., "all crows are black" or not is not among Hume's concerns. Russell's theories are thus only false alternatives to Hume's, in (1912 or in his (1948.

  12. Stochastic processes inference theory

    CERN Document Server

    Rao, Malempati M

    2014-01-01

    This is the revised and enlarged 2nd edition of the authors’ original text, which was intended to be a modest complement to Grenander's fundamental memoir on stochastic processes and related inference theory. The present volume gives a substantial account of regression analysis, both for stochastic processes and measures, and includes recent material on Ridge regression with some unexpected applications, for example in econometrics. The first three chapters can be used for a quarter or semester graduate course on inference on stochastic processes. The remaining chapters provide more advanced material on stochastic analysis suitable for graduate seminars and discussions, leading to dissertation or research work. In general, the book will be of interest to researchers in probability theory, mathematical statistics and electrical and information theory.

  13. Unfolding Green Defense

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Kristian Knus

    2015-01-01

    consumption in military operations, defense expenditure, energy security, and global climate change. The report then proceeds to introduce the NATO Green Defence Framework before exploring specific current uses of green technologies and green strategies for defense. The report concludes that a number...

  14. Avian host defense peptides

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cuperus, Tryntsje; Coorens, M.; van Dijk, A.; Haagsman, H.P.

    2013-01-01

    Host defense peptides (HDPs) are important effector molecules of the innate immune system of vertebrates. These antimicrobial peptides are also present in invertebrates, plants and fungi. HDPs display broad-spectrum antimicrobial activities and fulfill an important role in the first line of defense

  15. Defense Mechanisms: A Bibliography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedrini, D. T.; Pedrini, Bonnie C.

    This bibliography includes studies of defense mechanisms, in general, and studies of multiple mechanisms. Defense mechanisms, briefly and simply defined, are the unconscious ego defendants against unpleasure, threat, or anxiety. Sigmund Freud deserves the clinical credit for studying many mechanisms and introducing them in professional literature.…

  16. INFERENCES FROM ROSSI TRACES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    KENNETH M. HANSON; JANE M. BOOKER

    2000-09-08

    The authors an uncertainty analysis of data taken using the Rossi technique, in which the horizontal oscilloscope sweep is driven sinusoidally in time ,while the vertical axis follows the signal amplitude. The analysis is done within a Bayesian framework. Complete inferences are obtained by tilting the Markov chain Monte Carlo technique, which produces random samples from the posterior probability distribution expressed in terms of the parameters.

  17. Inferring Microbial Fitness Landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-02-25

    experiments on evolving microbial populations. Although these experiments have produced examples of remarkable phenomena – e.g. the emergence of mutator...what specific mutations, avian influenza viruses will adapt to novel human hosts; or how readily infectious bacteria will escape antibiotics or the...infer from data the determinants of microbial evolution with sufficient resolution that we can quantify 1. REPORT DATE (DD-MM-YYYY) 4. TITLE AND

  18. Continuous Integrated Invariant Inference Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The proposed project will develop a new technique for invariant inference and embed this and other current invariant inference and checking techniques in an...

  19. Defense Industry Clusters in Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kadir Alpaslan Demir

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available All countries strive for a capable national defense supported by a strong national defense industry. Supporting national defense with imported defense systems has many limitations and risks because the terms of arms trade agreements between countries may easily be influenced by the political climate of the signatories. As a result, establishing an independent national defense requires a strong national defense industry. Furthermore, exporting defense systems may be an important source of national income. National defense industries mostly consist of large-scale defense firms that have the resources required for big defense contracts. However, small to medium enterprises (SMEs do not have the necessary resources, therefore they are at a disadvantage. To overcome this handicap and be part of the business, defense industry clusters mostly consisting of SMEs are being established. Provided that there is good national planning and support in this area, defense clusters consisting of SMEs may play a significant role in industry. SMEs have a chance to offer specialized services, special or customized products when needed. As a result, large defense firms subcontract certain portions of defense projects to SMEs. Since 2010, Turkey has shown signs of continuous improvement in defense industry clustering. In parallel with these developments, this study discusses the importance of clustering in the defense industry, briefly presents the state of the Turkish defense industry as highlighted by national statistics, and presents the current status of defense clusters in Turkey. The novelty of this article consists in its assessment of Turkish defense clusters.

  20. Probabilistic Inferences in Bayesian Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Ding, Jianguo

    2010-01-01

    This chapter summarizes the popular inferences methods in Bayesian networks. The results demonstrates that the evidence can propagated across the Bayesian networks by any links, whatever it is forward or backward or intercausal style. The belief updating of Bayesian networks can be obtained by various available inference techniques. Theoretically, exact inferences in Bayesian networks is feasible and manageable. However, the computing and inference is NP-hard. That means, in applications, in ...

  1. Test Validation and the MKT Measures: Generalizations and Conclusions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schilling, Stephen G.; Blunk, Merrie; Hill, Heather C.

    2007-01-01

    In this paper, the authors complete the summative stage of the validity argument approach, then use their experiences to reflect on the validity argument as a method. They begin by evaluating the inferences and assumptions of the interpretive argument for the MKT measures. Then they examine both the form and the structure of the interpretive…

  2. Multimodel inference and adaptive management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rehme, S.E.; Powell, L.A.; Allen, C.R.

    2011-01-01

    Ecology is an inherently complex science coping with correlated variables, nonlinear interactions and multiple scales of pattern and process, making it difficult for experiments to result in clear, strong inference. Natural resource managers, policy makers, and stakeholders rely on science to provide timely and accurate management recommendations. However, the time necessary to untangle the complexities of interactions within ecosystems is often far greater than the time available to make management decisions. One method of coping with this problem is multimodel inference. Multimodel inference assesses uncertainty by calculating likelihoods among multiple competing hypotheses, but multimodel inference results are often equivocal. Despite this, there may be pressure for ecologists to provide management recommendations regardless of the strength of their study’s inference. We reviewed papers in the Journal of Wildlife Management (JWM) and the journal Conservation Biology (CB) to quantify the prevalence of multimodel inference approaches, the resulting inference (weak versus strong), and how authors dealt with the uncertainty. Thirty-eight percent and 14%, respectively, of articles in the JWM and CB used multimodel inference approaches. Strong inference was rarely observed, with only 7% of JWM and 20% of CB articles resulting in strong inference. We found the majority of weak inference papers in both journals (59%) gave specific management recommendations. Model selection uncertainty was ignored in most recommendations for management. We suggest that adaptive management is an ideal method to resolve uncertainty when research results in weak inference.

  3. Defense and the Economy

    Science.gov (United States)

    1993-01-01

    AD A 66 28 o’py 9of 27 copiesII AD-A266 288-co, .o,,,, I IDA PAPER P-28 10I * DEFENSE AND THE ECONOMY David R. Graham An-Jen Tai Barbara A...TYPE AND DATES COVERED January 1993 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE S. FUNDING NUMBERS Defense and the Economy C-MDA 903 89C 0003i...Fomr 298 (Rev 2-4g) 3Preserked by ANSI Sid, Z39- 2I0 I I I IDA PAPER P-2810() 3 DEFENSE AND THE ECONOMY I I David R. Graham An-Jen Tai Barbara A

  4. Nanotechnology and statistical inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vesely, Sara; Vesely, Leonardo; Vesely, Alessandro

    2017-08-01

    We discuss some problems that arise when applying statistical inference to data with the aim of disclosing new func-tionalities. A predictive model analyzes the data taken from experiments on a specific material to assess the likelihood that another product, with similar structure and properties, will exhibit the same functionality. It doesn't have much predictive power if vari-ability occurs as a consequence of a specific, non-linear behavior. We exemplify our discussion on some experiments with biased dice.

  5. Foundations of Inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin H. Knuth

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available We present a simple and clear foundation for finite inference that unites and significantly extends the approaches of Kolmogorov and Cox. Our approach is based on quantifying lattices of logical statements in a way that satisfies general lattice symmetries. With other applications such as measure theory in mind, our derivations assume minimal symmetries, relying on neither negation nor continuity nor differentiability. Each relevant symmetry corresponds to an axiom of quantification, and these axioms are used to derive a unique set of quantifying rules that form the familiar probability calculus. We also derive a unique quantification of divergence, entropy and information.

  6. Nonparametric statistical inference

    CERN Document Server

    Gibbons, Jean Dickinson

    2010-01-01

    Overall, this remains a very fine book suitable for a graduate-level course in nonparametric statistics. I recommend it for all people interested in learning the basic ideas of nonparametric statistical inference.-Eugenia Stoimenova, Journal of Applied Statistics, June 2012… one of the best books available for a graduate (or advanced undergraduate) text for a theory course on nonparametric statistics. … a very well-written and organized book on nonparametric statistics, especially useful and recommended for teachers and graduate students.-Biometrics, 67, September 2011This excellently presente

  7. Generic patch inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jesper; Lawall, Julia

    2010-01-01

    A key issue in maintaining Linux device drivers is the need to keep them up to date with respect to evolutions in Linux internal libraries. Currently, there is little tool support for performing and documenting such changes. In this paper we present a tool, spdiff, that identifies common changes...... developers can use it to extract an abstract representation of the set of changes that others have made. Our experiments on recent changes in Linux show that the inferred generic patches are more concise than the corresponding patches found in commits to the Linux source tree while being safe with respect...

  8. Estimating uncertainty of inference for validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Booker, Jane M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Langenbrunner, James R [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Hemez, Francois M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Ross, Timothy J [UNM

    2010-09-30

    We present a validation process based upon the concept that validation is an inference-making activity. This has always been true, but the association has not been as important before as it is now. Previously, theory had been confirmed by more data, and predictions were possible based on data. The process today is to infer from theory to code and from code to prediction, making the role of prediction somewhat automatic, and a machine function. Validation is defined as determining the degree to which a model and code is an accurate representation of experimental test data. Imbedded in validation is the intention to use the computer code to predict. To predict is to accept the conclusion that an observable final state will manifest; therefore, prediction is an inference whose goodness relies on the validity of the code. Quantifying the uncertainty of a prediction amounts to quantifying the uncertainty of validation, and this involves the characterization of uncertainties inherent in theory/models/codes and the corresponding data. An introduction to inference making and its associated uncertainty is provided as a foundation for the validation problem. A mathematical construction for estimating the uncertainty in the validation inference is then presented, including a possibility distribution constructed to represent the inference uncertainty for validation under uncertainty. The estimation of inference uncertainty for validation is illustrated using data and calculations from Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF). The ICF measurements of neutron yield and ion temperature were obtained for direct-drive inertial fusion capsules at the Omega laser facility. The glass capsules, containing the fusion gas, were systematically selected with the intent of establishing a reproducible baseline of high-yield 10{sup 13}-10{sup 14} neutron output. The deuterium-tritium ratio in these experiments was varied to study its influence upon yield. This paper on validation inference is the

  9. Statistical inferences in phylogeography

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Rasmus; Beaumont, Mark A

    2009-01-01

    In conventional phylogeographic studies, historical demographic processes are elucidated from the geographical distribution of individuals represented on an inferred gene tree. However, the interpretation of gene trees in this context can be difficult as the same demographic/geographical process ...... may also be challenged by computational problems or poor model choice. In this review, we will describe the development of statistical methods in phylogeographic analysis, and discuss some of the challenges facing these methods....... can randomly lead to multiple different genealogies. Likewise, the same gene trees can arise under different demographic models. This problem has led to the emergence of many statistical methods for making phylogeographic inferences. A popular phylogeographic approach based on nested clade analysis...... is challenged by the fact that a certain amount of the interpretation of the data is left to the subjective choices of the user, and it has been argued that the method performs poorly in simulation studies. More rigorous statistical methods based on coalescence theory have been developed. However, these methods...

  10. Moment inference from tomograms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Day-Lewis, F. D.; Chen, Y.; Singha, K.

    2007-01-01

    Time-lapse geophysical tomography can provide valuable qualitative insights into hydrologic transport phenomena associated with aquifer dynamics, tracer experiments, and engineered remediation. Increasingly, tomograms are used to infer the spatial and/or temporal moments of solute plumes; these moments provide quantitative information about transport processes (e.g., advection, dispersion, and rate-limited mass transfer) and controlling parameters (e.g., permeability, dispersivity, and rate coefficients). The reliability of moments calculated from tomograms is, however, poorly understood because classic approaches to image appraisal (e.g., the model resolution matrix) are not directly applicable to moment inference. Here, we present a semi-analytical approach to construct a moment resolution matrix based on (1) the classic model resolution matrix and (2) image reconstruction from orthogonal moments. Numerical results for radar and electrical-resistivity imaging of solute plumes demonstrate that moment values calculated from tomograms depend strongly on plume location within the tomogram, survey geometry, regularization criteria, and measurement error. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

  11. Rethinking Defensive Information Warfare

    Science.gov (United States)

    2004-06-01

    electronic warfare, and special information operations. Defensive information operations ensure timely, accurate, and relevant information access...information and information systems. IA, physical security, OPSEC, counter-deception, counter-psyops, CI, EW, and special information operations. Ensure

  12. Surfing China's National Defense

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ji Guilin

    2010-01-01

    @@ Following the start of its first test run on August 20, 2009, the website www.mod.gov.cn of the Ministry of National Defense (MOD) of the People's Republic of China has logged more than 2 billion hits,from many countries and regions including China, the United States,the United Kingdom, Japan, Australia and Singapore. China National Defense News reporters recently interviewed Ji Guilin, the website's Editor in Chief, on its performance and the feedback of netizens.

  13. 75 FR 76423 - Defense Intelligence Agency National Defense Intelligence College Board of Visitors Closed Meeting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-08

    ... of the Secretary Defense Intelligence Agency National Defense Intelligence College Board of Visitors Closed Meeting AGENCY: National Defense Intelligence College, Defense Intelligence Agency, Department of... a closed meeting of the Defense Intelligence Agency National Defense Intelligence College Board...

  14. 76 FR 28960 - Defense Intelligence Agency National Defense Intelligence College Board of Visitors Closed Meeting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-05-19

    ... of the Secretary Defense Intelligence Agency National Defense Intelligence College Board of Visitors Closed Meeting AGENCY: National Defense Intelligence College, Defense Intelligence Agency, Department of... a closed meeting of the Defense Intelligence Agency National Defense Intelligence College Board...

  15. 76 FR 28757 - Defense Logistics Agency Revised Regulation 1000.22, Environmental Considerations in Defense...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-05-18

    ... of the Secretary Defense Logistics Agency Revised Regulation 1000.22, Environmental Considerations in Defense Logistics Agency Actions AGENCY: Defense Logistics Agency, Department of Defense. ACTION: Notice of Availability (NOA) of Revised Defense Logistics Agency Regulation. SUMMARY: The Defense Logistics...

  16. Towards a Faster Randomized Parcellation Based Inference

    OpenAIRE

    Hoyos-Idrobo, Andrés; Varoquaux, Gaël; Thirion, Bertrand

    2017-01-01

    International audience; In neuroimaging, multi-subject statistical analysis is an essential step, as it makes it possible to draw conclusions for the population under study. However, the lack of power in neuroimaging studies combined with the lack of stability and sensitivity of voxel-based methods may lead to non-reproducible results. A method designed to tackle this problem is Randomized Parcellation-Based Inference (RPBI), which has shown good empirical performance. Nevertheless, the use o...

  17. Optimal defense strategies in an idealized microbial food web under trade-off between competition and defense.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Selina Våge

    Full Text Available Trophic mechanisms that can generate biodiversity in food webs include bottom-up (growth rate regulating and top-down (biomass regulating factors. The top-down control has traditionally been analyzed using the concepts of "Keystone Predation" (KP and "Killing-the-Winner" (KtW, predominately occuring in discussions of macro- and micro-biological ecology, respectively. Here we combine the classical diamond-shaped food web structure frequently discussed in KP analyses and the KtW concept by introducing a defense strategist capable of partial defense. A formalized description of a trade-off between the defense-strategist's competitive and defensive ability is included. The analysis reveals a complex topology of the steady state solution with strong relationships between food web structure and the combination of trade-off, defense strategy and the system's nutrient content. Among the results is a difference in defense strategies corresponding to maximum biomass, production, or net growth rate of invading individuals. The analysis thus summons awareness that biomass or production, parameters typically measured in field studies to infer success of particular biota, are not directly acted upon by natural selection. Under coexistence with a competition specialist, a balance of competitive and defensive ability of the defense strategist was found to be evolutionarily stable, whereas stronger defense was optimal under increased nutrient levels in the absence of the pure competition specialist. The findings of success of different defense strategies are discussed with respect to SAR11, a highly successful bacterial clade in the pelagic ocean.

  18. Inferring attitudes from mindwandering.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Critcher, Clayton R; Gilovich, Thomas

    2010-09-01

    Self-perception theory posits that people understand their own attitudes and preferences much as they understand others', by interpreting the meaning of their behavior in light of the context in which it occurs. Four studies tested whether people also rely on unobservable "behavior," their mindwandering, when making such inferences. It is proposed here that people rely on the content of their mindwandering to decide whether it reflects boredom with an ongoing task or a reverie's irresistible pull. Having the mind wander to positive events, to concurrent as opposed to past activities, and to many events rather than just one tends to be attributed to boredom and therefore leads to perceived dissatisfaction with an ongoing task. Participants appeared to rely spontaneously on the content of their wandering minds as a cue to their attitudes, but not when an alternative cause for their mindwandering was made salient.

  19. Bayesian inference in geomagnetism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Backus, George E.

    1988-01-01

    The inverse problem in empirical geomagnetic modeling is investigated, with critical examination of recently published studies. Particular attention is given to the use of Bayesian inference (BI) to select the damping parameter lambda in the uniqueness portion of the inverse problem. The mathematical bases of BI and stochastic inversion are explored, with consideration of bound-softening problems and resolution in linear Gaussian BI. The problem of estimating the radial magnetic field B(r) at the earth core-mantle boundary from surface and satellite measurements is then analyzed in detail, with specific attention to the selection of lambda in the studies of Gubbins (1983) and Gubbins and Bloxham (1985). It is argued that the selection method is inappropriate and leads to lambda values much larger than those that would result if a reasonable bound on the heat flow at the CMB were assumed.

  20. Inferring the eccentricity distribution

    CERN Document Server

    Hogg, David W; Bovy, Jo

    2010-01-01

    Standard maximum-likelihood estimators for binary-star and exoplanet eccentricities are biased high, in the sense that the estimated eccentricity tends to be larger than the true eccentricity. As with most non-trivial observables, a simple histogram of estimated eccentricities is not a good estimate of the true eccentricity distribution. Here we develop and test a hierarchical probabilistic method for performing the relevant meta-analysis, that is, inferring the true eccentricity distribution, taking as input the likelihood functions for the individual-star eccentricities, or samplings of the posterior probability distributions for the eccentricities (under a given, uninformative prior). The method is a simple implementation of a hierarchical Bayesian model; it can also be seen as a kind of heteroscedastic deconvolution. It can be applied to any quantity measured with finite precision--other orbital parameters, or indeed any astronomical measurements of any kind, including magnitudes, parallaxes, or photometr...

  1. Inferring deterministic causal relations

    CERN Document Server

    Daniusis, Povilas; Mooij, Joris; Zscheischler, Jakob; Steudel, Bastian; Zhang, Kun; Schoelkopf, Bernhard

    2012-01-01

    We consider two variables that are related to each other by an invertible function. While it has previously been shown that the dependence structure of the noise can provide hints to determine which of the two variables is the cause, we presently show that even in the deterministic (noise-free) case, there are asymmetries that can be exploited for causal inference. Our method is based on the idea that if the function and the probability density of the cause are chosen independently, then the distribution of the effect will, in a certain sense, depend on the function. We provide a theoretical analysis of this method, showing that it also works in the low noise regime, and link it to information geometry. We report strong empirical results on various real-world data sets from different domains.

  2. Admissibility of logical inference rules

    CERN Document Server

    Rybakov, VV

    1997-01-01

    The aim of this book is to present the fundamental theoretical results concerning inference rules in deductive formal systems. Primary attention is focused on: admissible or permissible inference rules the derivability of the admissible inference rules the structural completeness of logics the bases for admissible and valid inference rules. There is particular emphasis on propositional non-standard logics (primary, superintuitionistic and modal logics) but general logical consequence relations and classical first-order theories are also considered. The book is basically self-contained and

  3. An Inference Language for Imaging

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedemonte, Stefano; Catana, Ciprian; Van Leemput, Koen

    2014-01-01

    We introduce iLang, a language and software framework for probabilistic inference. The iLang framework enables the definition of directed and undirected probabilistic graphical models and the automated synthesis of high performance inference algorithms for imaging applications. The iLang framework...

  4. Interactive Instruction in Bayesian Inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khan, Azam; Breslav, Simon; Hornbæk, Kasper

    2017-01-01

    An instructional approach is presented to improve human performance in solving Bayesian inference problems. Starting from the original text of the classic Mammography Problem, the textual expression is modified and visualizations are added according to Mayer’s principles of instruction...... that an instructional approach to improving human performance in Bayesian inference is a promising direction....

  5. Causal Inference and Developmental Psychology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, E. Michael

    2010-01-01

    Causal inference is of central importance to developmental psychology. Many key questions in the field revolve around improving the lives of children and their families. These include identifying risk factors that if manipulated in some way would foster child development. Such a task inherently involves causal inference: One wants to know whether…

  6. Causal Inference and Developmental Psychology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, E. Michael

    2010-01-01

    Causal inference is of central importance to developmental psychology. Many key questions in the field revolve around improving the lives of children and their families. These include identifying risk factors that if manipulated in some way would foster child development. Such a task inherently involves causal inference: One wants to know whether…

  7. Inference and Assumption in Historical Seismology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Musson, R. M. W.

    The principal aim in studies of historical earthquakes is usually to be able to derive parameters for past earthquakes from macroseismic or other data and thus extend back in time parametric earthquake catalogues, often with improved seismic hazard studies as the ultimate goal. In cases of relatively recent historical earthquakes, for example, those of the 18th and 19th centuries, it is often the case that there is such an abundance of available macroseismic data that estimating earthquake parameters is relatively straightforward. For earlier historical periods, especially medieval and earlier, and also for areas where settlement or documentation are sparse, the situation is much harder. The seismologist often finds that he has only a few data points (or even one) for an earthquake that nevertheless appears to be regionally significant.In such cases, it is natural that the investigator will attempt to make the most of the available data, expanding it by making working assumptions, and from these deriving conclusions by inference (i.e. the process of proceeding logically from some premise). This can be seen in a number of existing studies; in some cases extremely slight data are so magnified by the use of inference that one must regard the results as tentative in the extreme. Two main types of inference can be distinguished. The first type is inference from documentation. This is where assumptions are made such as: the absence of a report of the earthquake from this monastic chronicle indicates that at this locality the earthquake was not felt. The second type is inference from seismicity. Here one deals with arguments such as all recent earthquakes felt at town X are events occurring in seismic zone Y, therefore this ancient earthquake which is only reported at town X probably also occurred in this zone.

  8. Hybrid Optical Inference Machines

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-09-27

    imaging. A PC controlled data acquistion system with digital to analog-output was setup with serial- 66 - I controlled linear translation and rotation...rules in Eq. (4) of specific conclusions which are logica ,, .ferred form-the knowledge base. from the facts and rules in response to the queries. In...error rates, digital S 0ucries Conclusions optical signals (binary intensity levels) are assumed for all input and output signals in the optical

  9. Redshift data and statistical inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, William I.; Haynes, Martha P.; Terzian, Yervant

    1994-01-01

    Frequency histograms and the 'power spectrum analysis' (PSA) method, the latter developed by Yu & Peebles (1969), have been widely employed as techniques for establishing the existence of periodicities. We provide a formal analysis of these two classes of methods, including controlled numerical experiments, to better understand their proper use and application. In particular, we note that typical published applications of frequency histograms commonly employ far greater numbers of class intervals or bins than is advisable by statistical theory sometimes giving rise to the appearance of spurious patterns. The PSA method generates a sequence of random numbers from observational data which, it is claimed, is exponentially distributed with unit mean and variance, essentially independent of the distribution of the original data. We show that the derived random processes is nonstationary and produces a small but systematic bias in the usual estimate of the mean and variance. Although the derived variable may be reasonably described by an exponential distribution, the tail of the distribution is far removed from that of an exponential, thereby rendering statistical inference and confidence testing based on the tail of the distribution completely unreliable. Finally, we examine a number of astronomical examples wherein these methods have been used giving rise to widespread acceptance of statistically unconfirmed conclusions.

  10. Variational Program Inference

    CERN Document Server

    Harik, Georges

    2010-01-01

    We introduce a framework for representing a variety of interesting problems as inference over the execution of probabilistic model programs. We represent a "solution" to such a problem as a guide program which runs alongside the model program and influences the model program's random choices, leading the model program to sample from a different distribution than from its priors. Ideally the guide program influences the model program to sample from the posteriors given the evidence. We show how the KL- divergence between the true posterior distribution and the distribution induced by the guided model program can be efficiently estimated (up to an additive constant) by sampling multiple executions of the guided model program. In addition, we show how to use the guide program as a proposal distribution in importance sampling to statistically prove lower bounds on the probability of the evidence and on the probability of a hypothesis and the evidence. We can use the quotient of these two bounds as an estimate of ...

  11. Gauging Variational Inference

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chertkov, Michael [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Ahn, Sungsoo [Korea Advanced Inst. Science and Technology (KAIST), Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Shin, Jinwoo [Korea Advanced Inst. Science and Technology (KAIST), Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-05-25

    Computing partition function is the most important statistical inference task arising in applications of Graphical Models (GM). Since it is computationally intractable, approximate methods have been used to resolve the issue in practice, where meanfield (MF) and belief propagation (BP) are arguably the most popular and successful approaches of a variational type. In this paper, we propose two new variational schemes, coined Gauged-MF (G-MF) and Gauged-BP (G-BP), improving MF and BP, respectively. Both provide lower bounds for the partition function by utilizing the so-called gauge transformation which modifies factors of GM while keeping the partition function invariant. Moreover, we prove that both G-MF and G-BP are exact for GMs with a single loop of a special structure, even though the bare MF and BP perform badly in this case. Our extensive experiments, on complete GMs of relatively small size and on large GM (up-to 300 variables) confirm that the newly proposed algorithms outperform and generalize MF and BP.

  12. Brain imaging, forward inference, and theories of reasoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heit, Evan

    2014-01-01

    This review focuses on the issue of how neuroimaging studies address theoretical accounts of reasoning, through the lens of the method of forward inference (Henson, 2005, 2006). After theories of deductive and inductive reasoning are briefly presented, the method of forward inference for distinguishing between psychological theories based on brain imaging evidence is critically reviewed. Brain imaging studies of reasoning, comparing deductive and inductive arguments, comparing meaningful versus non-meaningful material, investigating hemispheric localization, and comparing conditional and relational arguments, are assessed in light of the method of forward inference. Finally, conclusions are drawn with regard to future research opportunities.

  13. Brain Imaging, Forward Inference, and Theories of Reasoning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evan eHeit

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This review focuses on the issue of how neuroimaging studies address theoretical accounts of reasoning, through the lens of the method of forward inference (Henson, 2005, 2006. After theories of deductive and inductive reasoning are briefly presented, the method of forward inference for distinguishing between psychological theories based on brain imaging evidence is critically reviewed. Brain imaging studies of reasoning, comparing deductive and inductive arguments, comparing meaningful versus non-meaningful material, investigating hemispheric localization, and comparing conditional and relational arguments, are assessed in light of the method of forward inference. Finally, conclusions are drawn with regard to future research opportunities.

  14. Can Profit Policy and Contract Incentives Improve Defense Contract Outcomes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-02-01

    team for their contributions and suggestions, including Bruce R. Harmon, Christopher S. Wait, Karen W. Tyson, Sunjin Choi, and Byron Callan. The...peer industries, and broader industry segments for the period 1989–2006. Aside from 1993 and the sharp technology downturn after 2000, the defense...effects of profit policy on contractor profits can only be inferred. Profits and capital are influenced by numerous market factors, government profit

  15. Defense styles of pedophilic offenders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drapeau, Martin; Beretta, Véronique; de Roten, Yves; Koerner, Annett; Despland, Jean-Nicolas

    2008-04-01

    This pilot study investigated the defense styles of pedophile sexual offenders. Interviews with 20 pedophiles and 20 controls were scored using the Defense Mechanisms Rating Scales. Results showed that pedophiles had a significantly lower overall defensive functioning score than the controls. Pedophiles used significantly fewer obsessional-level defenses but more major image-distorting and action-level defenses. Results also suggested differences in the prevalence of individual defenses where pedophiles used more dissociation, displacement, denial, autistic fantasy, splitting of object, projective identification, acting out, and passive aggressive behavior but less intellectualization and rationalization.

  16. Statistical Inference and String Theory

    CERN Document Server

    Heckman, Jonathan J

    2013-01-01

    In this note we expose some surprising connections between string theory and statistical inference. We consider a large collective of agents sweeping out a family of nearby statistical models for an M-dimensional manifold of statistical fitting parameters. When the agents making nearby inferences align along a d-dimensional grid, we find that the pooled probability that the collective reaches a correct inference is the partition function of a non-linear sigma model in d dimensions. Stability under perturbations to the original inference scheme requires the agents of the collective to distribute along two dimensions. Conformal invariance of the sigma model corresponds to the condition of a stable inference scheme, directly leading to the Einstein field equations for classical gravity. By summing over all possible arrangements of the agents in the collective, we reach a string theory. We also use this perspective to quantify how much an observer can hope to learn about the internal geometry of a superstring com...

  17. Spatial mosaic evolution of snail defensive traits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    de León Francisco

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Recent models suggest that escalating reciprocal selection among antagonistically interacting species is predicted to occur in areas of higher resource productivity. In a putatively coevolved interaction between a freshwater snail (Mexipyrgus churinceanus and a molluscivorous cichlid (Herichthys minckleyi, we examined three components of this interaction: 1 spatial variation in two putative defensive traits, crushing resistance and shell pigmentation; 2 whether abiotic variables or frequency of molariform cichlids are associated with spatial patterns of crushing resistance and shell pigmentation and 3 whether variation in primary productivity accounted for small-scale variation in these defensive traits. Results Using spatial autocorrelation to account for genetic and geographic divergence among populations, we found no autocorrelation among populations at small geographic and genetic distances for the two defensive traits. There was also no correlation between abiotic variables (temperature and conductivity and snail defensive traits. However, crushing resistance and frequency of pigmented shells were negatively correlated with molariform frequency. Crushing resistance and levels of pigmentation were significantly higher in habitats dominated by aquatic macrophytes, and both traits are phenotypically correlated. Conclusion Crushing resistance and pigmentation of M. churinceanus exhibit striking variation at small spatial scales often associated with differences in primary productivity, substrate coloration and the frequency of molariform cichlids. These local geographic differences may result from among-habitat variation in how resource productivity interacts to promote escalation in prey defenses.

  18. Number of objectives and conclusions in dissertations and thesis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liebano Richard Eloin

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available PURPOSE: To analyze the number of objectives and conclusions presented in dissertations and thesis defended at Federal University of São Paulo - Paulista School of Medicine (UNIFESP - EPM. METHODS: It was realized a search in the master degree dissertations and doctor degree thesis defended at Federal University of São Paulo - Paulista School of Medicine in the years 2002 and 2003 that were found available in the central library of this university. RESULTS: From 723 master dissertations analyzed, 62 (8,57% presented only one objective and one conclusion, 134 (18,53% presented one objective and more than one conclusion and 527 (72,89% had more than one objective and more than one conclusion. From 502 doctor thesis analyzed, 23 (4,58% presented only one objective and one conclusion, 123 (24,50% presented one objective and more than one conclusion and 376 (74,90% had more than one objective and more than one conclusion.. CONCLUSIONS: It wasn't found in researched literature the number of objectives and conclusions a scientific work must have. A highest number of thesis and dissertations presented more than one objective and more than one conclusion.

  19. Inference and Reconciliation in a Crowdsourced Lexical-Semantic Network

    OpenAIRE

    2013-01-01

    International audience; Lexical-semantic network construction and validation is a major issue in the NLP. No matter the construction strategies used, automatically inferring new relations from already existing ones is a way to improve the global quality of the resource by densifying the network. In this context, an inference engine has for purpose to formulate new conclusions (i.e. relations between terms) from already existing premises (also relations) on the network. In this paper we devise...

  20. Bayesian inference of structural brain networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinne, Max; Heskes, Tom; Beckmann, Christian F; van Gerven, Marcel A J

    2013-02-01

    Structural brain networks are used to model white-matter connectivity between spatially segregated brain regions. The presence, location and orientation of these white matter tracts can be derived using diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging in combination with probabilistic tractography. Unfortunately, as of yet, none of the existing approaches provide an undisputed way of inferring brain networks from the streamline distributions which tractography produces. State-of-the-art methods rely on an arbitrary threshold or, alternatively, yield weighted results that are difficult to interpret. In this paper, we provide a generative model that explicitly describes how structural brain networks lead to observed streamline distributions. This allows us to draw principled conclusions about brain networks, which we validate using simultaneously acquired resting-state functional MRI data. Inference may be further informed by means of a prior which combines connectivity estimates from multiple subjects. Based on this prior, we obtain networks that significantly improve on the conventional approach.

  1. Statistical Methods in Phylogenetic and Evolutionary Inferences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luigi Bertolotti

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Molecular instruments are the most accurate methods in organisms’identification and characterization. Biologists are often involved in studies where the main goal is to identify relationships among individuals. In this framework, it is very important to know and apply the most robust approaches to infer correctly these relationships, allowing the right conclusions about phylogeny. In this review, we will introduce the reader to the most used statistical methods in phylogenetic analyses, the Maximum Likelihood and the Bayesian approaches, considering for simplicity only analyses regardingDNA sequences. Several studieswill be showed as examples in order to demonstrate how the correct phylogenetic inference can lead the scientists to highlight very peculiar features in pathogens biology and evolution.

  2. Defense Research Enterprise Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Please review the report findings and recommendations. I am interested in receiving your feedback for inclusion in programs wherever these...needed culture shift to utilize their existing authorities. Finally, expanded coordination among intermural basic research portfolios across the Labs...research portfolios across the Labs without creating additional administrative burdens is needed. The defense research enterprise should

  3. AFRL Defensive IO Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-11-02

    Wireless Information Assurance • Steganography • Air Force Enterprise Defense (AFED) 10 Distributed Agents for Information Warfare Operational...information (images, documents, overlays, audio , links, etc.) •multi-level data release to coalition forces; key-based access •covert communication...maximize throughput of communication channels Data Hiding/Embedding Steganography Watermarking Steganalysis 14 Payoffs • Integrates existing

  4. Defense Business Transformation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-12-01

    other. SCM and ERP systems both contribute to the overall distribution and coordination of resources. Just as an ERP enhances information flow...inventory management system (Thureen 2008). It combines the Army’s disparate wholesale and retail inventories, into one combined system (Sparacino 2002...Studies.............................................................................. 73 1. Defense Integrated Military Human Resource System

  5. Robust Preallocated Preferential Defense.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1985-08-01

    Frye , W.H. and Ullman, L.L., Methodology for Calculating Minuteman Defense Effectiveness, SRD-EGI4, Stanford Research Institute, October 1973. 4. Hogg...Corporation 1500 Wilson Boulevard Arlington, VA 22209 ATTN: Dr. Tucker Battle Dr. James Skouras Dr. Iram Weinstein Northrop Corporation 8900 E. Washington

  6. A case study in explanatory power: John Snow's conclusions about the pathology and transmission of cholera.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tulodziecki, Dana

    2011-09-01

    In the mid-1800s, there was much debate about the origin or 'exciting cause' of cholera. Despite much confusion surrounding the disease, the so-called miasma theory emerged as the prevalent account about cholera's cause. Going against this mainstream view, the British physician John Snow inferred several things about cholera's origin and pathology that no one else inferred. Without observing the vibrio cholerae, however,-data unavailable to Snow and his colleagues-, there was no way of settling the question of what exactly was causing cholera and how, or if, it was passed on. The question then arises as to how Snow arrived at conclusions so systematically different from those of his opponents. In this paper, I want to look at Snow's reasoning in some detail, and show that there were certain principles, explanatory power in particular, that were epistemologically important to Snow in their own right. I will show that Snow himself takes explanatory power to be an epistemic property, and makes explicit links between explanatory power and confirmation. Systematically juxtaposing Snow's claims and his opponents', I will show that Snow was right to tout the explanatory power of his theory, and that his conclusions about the epistemic superiority of his theory over that of the miasmatists' were justified. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. 19 CFR 111.68 - Proposed findings and conclusions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 19 Customs Duties 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Proposed findings and conclusions. 111.68 Section 111.68 Customs Duties U.S. CUSTOMS AND BORDER PROTECTION, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY; DEPARTMENT... Monetary Penalty in Lieu of Suspension or Revocation § 111.68 Proposed findings and conclusions....

  8. Defense Institution Building: An Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    MoDA and DIILS Support of DIB Activity Objectives . . . . . . . 26 2.8. Overlapping Program Objectives...Wales Initiative Fund–Defense Institution Building (WIF-DIB), the Ministry of Defense Advisors ( MoDA ) program, and the Defense Insti- tute of...other events and activities related to a partner nation’s defense institution capabilities and capacity. One exception is MoDA , where engagements are

  9. Optimization methods for logical inference

    CERN Document Server

    Chandru, Vijay

    2011-01-01

    Merging logic and mathematics in deductive inference-an innovative, cutting-edge approach. Optimization methods for logical inference? Absolutely, say Vijay Chandru and John Hooker, two major contributors to this rapidly expanding field. And even though ""solving logical inference problems with optimization methods may seem a bit like eating sauerkraut with chopsticks. . . it is the mathematical structure of a problem that determines whether an optimization model can help solve it, not the context in which the problem occurs."" Presenting powerful, proven optimization techniques for logic in

  10. Writing to Climax: Strategies for Creating Effective Conclusions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Stephen G.

    1996-01-01

    Provides pointers for incorporating the use of metaphors, alliteration, restating of the thesis, answering questions by reiteration of the thesis, and other ideas for writing an effective conclusion in high school and college papers. (PA)

  11. Statistical inference via fiducial methods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Salomé, Diemer

    1998-01-01

    In this thesis the attention is restricted to inductive reasoning using a mathematical probability model. A statistical procedure prescribes, for every theoretically possible set of data, the inference about the unknown of interest. ... Zie: Summary

  12. On principles of inductive inference

    OpenAIRE

    Kostecki, Ryszard Paweł

    2011-01-01

    We propose an intersubjective epistemic approach to foundations of probability theory and statistical inference, based on relative entropy and category theory, and aimed to bypass the mathematical and conceptual problems of existing foundational approaches.

  13. A fallacious jar? The peculiar relation between descriptive premises and normative conclusions in neuroethics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, Nils-Frederic; Northoff, Georg

    2015-06-01

    Ethical questions have traditionally been approached through conceptual analysis. Inspired by the rapid advance of modern brain imaging techniques, however, some ethical questions appear in a new light. For example, hotly debated trolley dilemmas have recently been studied by psychologists and neuroscientists alike, arguing that their findings can support or debunk moral intuitions that underlie those dilemmas. Resulting from the wedding of philosophy and neuroscience, neuroethics has emerged as a novel interdisciplinary field that aims at drawing conclusive relationships between neuroscientific observations and normative ethics. A major goal of neuroethics is to derive normative ethical conclusions from the investigation of neural and psychological mechanisms underlying ethical theories, as well as moral judgments and intuitions. The focus of this article is to shed light on the structure and functioning of neuroethical arguments of this sort, and to reveal particular methodological challenges that lie concealed therein. We discuss the methodological problem of how one can--or, as the case may be, cannot--validly infer normative conclusions from neuroscientific observations. Moreover, we raise the issue of how preexisting normative ethical convictions threaten to invalidate the interpretation of neuroscientific data, and thus arrive at question-begging conclusions. Nonetheless, this is not to deny that current neuroethics rightly presumes that moral considerations about actual human lives demand empirically substantiated answers. Therefore, in conclusion, we offer some preliminary reflections on how the discussed methodological challenges can be met.

  14. Type Inference for Guarded Recursive Data Types

    OpenAIRE

    Stuckey, Peter J.; Sulzmann, Martin

    2005-01-01

    We consider type inference for guarded recursive data types (GRDTs) -- a recent generalization of algebraic data types. We reduce type inference for GRDTs to unification under a mixed prefix. Thus, we obtain efficient type inference. Inference is incomplete because the set of type constraints allowed to appear in the type system is only a subset of those type constraints generated by type inference. Hence, inference only succeeds if the program is sufficiently type annotated. We present refin...

  15. Statistical Inference in Graphical Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-06-17

    Probabilistic Network Library ( PNL ). While not fully mature, PNL does provide the most commonly-used algorithms for inference and learning with the efficiency...of C++, and also offers interfaces for calling the library from MATLAB and R 1361. Notably, both BNT and PNL provide learning and inference algorithms...mature and has been used for research purposes for several years, it is written in MATLAB and thus is not suitable to be used in real-time settings. PNL

  16. Implementing Deep Inference in Tom

    OpenAIRE

    Kahramanogullari, Ozan; Moreau, Pierre-Etienne; Reilles, Antoine

    2005-01-01

    ISSN 1430-211X; The calculus of structures is a proof theoretical formalism which generalizes sequent calculus with the feature of deep inference: in contrast to sequent calculus, the calculus of structures does not rely on the notion of main connective and, like in term rewriting, it permits the application of the inference rules at any depth inside a formula. Tom is a pattern matching processor that integrates term rewriting facilities into imperative languages. In this paper, relying on th...

  17. An Inference Language for Imaging

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedemonte, Stefano; Catana, Ciprian; Van Leemput, Koen

    2014-01-01

    We introduce iLang, a language and software framework for probabilistic inference. The iLang framework enables the definition of directed and undirected probabilistic graphical models and the automated synthesis of high performance inference algorithms for imaging applications. The iLang framewor......-accelerated primitives specializes iLang to the spatial data-structures that arise in imaging applications. We illustrate the framework through a challenging application: spatio-temporal tomographic reconstruction with compressive sensing....

  18. Bayesian Inference: with ecological applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Link, William A.; Barker, Richard J.

    2010-01-01

    This text provides a mathematically rigorous yet accessible and engaging introduction to Bayesian inference with relevant examples that will be of interest to biologists working in the fields of ecology, wildlife management and environmental studies as well as students in advanced undergraduate statistics.. This text opens the door to Bayesian inference, taking advantage of modern computational efficiencies and easily accessible software to evaluate complex hierarchical models.

  19. Statistical Inference: The Big Picture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kass, Robert E

    2011-02-01

    Statistics has moved beyond the frequentist-Bayesian controversies of the past. Where does this leave our ability to interpret results? I suggest that a philosophy compatible with statistical practice, labelled here statistical pragmatism, serves as a foundation for inference. Statistical pragmatism is inclusive and emphasizes the assumptions that connect statistical models with observed data. I argue that introductory courses often mis-characterize the process of statistical inference and I propose an alternative "big picture" depiction.

  20. Inference of magnetic fields in inhomogeneous prominences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milić, I.; Faurobert, M.; Atanacković, O.

    2017-01-01

    Context. Most of the quantitative information about the magnetic field vector in solar prominences comes from the analysis of the Hanle effect acting on lines formed by scattering. As these lines can be of non-negligible optical thickness, it is of interest to study the line formation process further. Aims: We investigate the multidimensional effects on the interpretation of spectropolarimetric observations, particularly on the inference of the magnetic field vector. We do this by analyzing the differences between multidimensional models, which involve fully self-consistent radiative transfer computations in the presence of spatial inhomogeneities and velocity fields, and those which rely on simple one-dimensional geometry. Methods: We study the formation of a prototype line in ad hoc inhomogeneous, isothermal 2D prominence models. We solve the NLTE polarized line formation problem in the presence of a large-scale oriented magnetic field. The resulting polarized line profiles are then interpreted (i.e. inverted) assuming a simple 1D slab model. Results: We find that differences between input and the inferred magnetic field vector are non-negligible. Namely, we almost universally find that the inferred field is weaker and more horizontal than the input field. Conclusions: Spatial inhomogeneities and radiative transfer have a strong effect on scattering line polarization in the optically thick lines. In real-life situations, ignoring these effects could lead to a serious misinterpretation of spectropolarimetric observations of chromospheric objects such as prominences.

  1. Avian host defense peptides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuperus, Tryntsje; Coorens, Maarten; van Dijk, Albert; Haagsman, Henk P

    2013-11-01

    Host defense peptides (HDPs) are important effector molecules of the innate immune system of vertebrates. These antimicrobial peptides are also present in invertebrates, plants and fungi. HDPs display broad-spectrum antimicrobial activities and fulfill an important role in the first line of defense of many organisms. It is becoming increasingly clear that in the animal kingdom the functions of HDPs are not confined to direct antimicrobial actions. Research in mammals has indicated that HDPs have many immunomodulatory functions and are also involved in other physiological processes ranging from development to wound healing. During the past five years our knowledge about avian HDPs has increased considerably. This review addresses our current knowledge on the evolution, regulation and biological functions of HDPs of birds.

  2. Abductive inference and delusional belief.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coltheart, Max; Menzies, Peter; Sutton, John

    2010-01-01

    Delusional beliefs have sometimes been considered as rational inferences from abnormal experiences. We explore this idea in more detail, making the following points. First, the abnormalities of cognition that initially prompt the entertaining of a delusional belief are not always conscious and since we prefer to restrict the term "experience" to consciousness we refer to "abnormal data" rather than "abnormal experience". Second, we argue that in relation to many delusions (we consider seven) one can clearly identify what the abnormal cognitive data are which prompted the delusion and what the neuropsychological impairment is which is responsible for the occurrence of these data; but one can equally clearly point to cases where this impairment is present but delusion is not. So the impairment is not sufficient for delusion to occur: a second cognitive impairment, one that affects the ability to evaluate beliefs, must also be present. Third (and this is the main thrust of our paper), we consider in detail what the nature of the inference is that leads from the abnormal data to the belief. This is not deductive inference and it is not inference by enumerative induction; it is abductive inference. We offer a Bayesian account of abductive inference and apply it to the explanation of delusional belief.

  3. Active inference, communication and hermeneutics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friston, Karl J; Frith, Christopher D

    2015-07-01

    Hermeneutics refers to interpretation and translation of text (typically ancient scriptures) but also applies to verbal and non-verbal communication. In a psychological setting it nicely frames the problem of inferring the intended content of a communication. In this paper, we offer a solution to the problem of neural hermeneutics based upon active inference. In active inference, action fulfils predictions about how we will behave (e.g., predicting we will speak). Crucially, these predictions can be used to predict both self and others--during speaking and listening respectively. Active inference mandates the suppression of prediction errors by updating an internal model that generates predictions--both at fast timescales (through perceptual inference) and slower timescales (through perceptual learning). If two agents adopt the same model, then--in principle--they can predict each other and minimise their mutual prediction errors. Heuristically, this ensures they are singing from the same hymn sheet. This paper builds upon recent work on active inference and communication to illustrate perceptual learning using simulated birdsongs. Our focus here is the neural hermeneutics implicit in learning, where communication facilitates long-term changes in generative models that are trying to predict each other. In other words, communication induces perceptual learning and enables others to (literally) change our minds and vice versa. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  4. A Defense Budget Primer

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-12-09

    budget practices. See Appendix D for the actual timetable of congressional action on the FY1999 budget.65 See James V. Saturno , The Appropriations...details, see James V. Saturno , The Appropriations Process and the Congressional69 Budget Act, CRS Report 97-947. Table 6. Milestone Votes on the Defense...James V. Saturno , The74 Appropriations Process and the Congressional Budget Act, CRS Report 97-947. The Budget Enforcement Act of 1990 and subsequent

  5. Defensive Minefield Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    1989-06-01

    Minefield Planning by Carlos Vallejo Game Lieutenant, Ecuadorian Navy B. S., Escuela Superior Naval, Ecuador 1980 Submitted in partial fulfillment of...was a superior open-ocean naval force to the North Koreans, defensive minewarfare was able to, at least temporarily, defeat U.S. Navy objectives in...Oswaldo Rosero 1 Unit 8 Coastal Route 1 Monterey, California 93940 77 11. Office of the N’aval Attache 4 Direccion de Educacion 2535 15th. st. N. W

  6. Plant Defense against Insect Herbivores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fürstenberg-Hägg, Joel; Zagrobelny, Mika; Bak, Søren

    2013-01-01

    Plants have been interacting with insects for several hundred million years, leading to complex defense approaches against various insect feeding strategies. Some defenses are constitutive while others are induced, although the insecticidal defense compound or protein classes are often similar. Insect herbivory induce several internal signals from the wounded tissues, including calcium ion fluxes, phosphorylation cascades and systemic- and jasmonate signaling. These are perceived in undamaged tissues, which thereafter reinforce their defense by producing different, mostly low molecular weight, defense compounds. These bioactive specialized plant defense compounds may repel or intoxicate insects, while defense proteins often interfere with their digestion. Volatiles are released upon herbivory to repel herbivores, attract predators or for communication between leaves or plants, and to induce defense responses. Plants also apply morphological features like waxes, trichomes and latices to make the feeding more difficult for the insects. Extrafloral nectar, food bodies and nesting or refuge sites are produced to accommodate and feed the predators of the herbivores. Meanwhile, herbivorous insects have adapted to resist plant defenses, and in some cases even sequester the compounds and reuse them in their own defense. Both plant defense and insect adaptation involve metabolic costs, so most plant-insect interactions reach a stand-off, where both host and herbivore survive although their development is suboptimal. PMID:23681010

  7. Plant defense against insect herbivores

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fürstenberg-Hägg, Joel; Zagrobelny, Mika; Bak, Søren

    2013-01-01

    have adapted to resist plant defenses, and in some cases even sequester the compounds and reuse them in their own defense. Both plant defense and insect adaptation involve metabolic costs, so most plant-insect interactions reach a stand-off, where both host and herbivore survive although......Plants have been interacting with insects for several hundred million years, leading to complex defense approaches against various insect feeding strategies. Some defenses are constitutive while others are induced, although the insecticidal defense compound or protein classes are often similar....... Insect herbivory induce several internal signals from the wounded tissues, including calcium ion fluxes, phosphorylation cascades and systemic- and jasmonate signaling. These are perceived in undamaged tissues, which thereafter reinforce their defense by producing different, mostly low molecular weight...

  8. Hypothesis, Prediction, and Conclusion: Using Nature of Science Terminology Correctly

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eastwell, Peter

    2012-01-01

    This paper defines the terms "hypothesis," "prediction," and "conclusion" and shows how to use the terms correctly in scientific investigations in both the school and science education research contexts. The scientific method, or hypothetico-deductive (HD) approach, is described and it is argued that an understanding of the scientific method,…

  9. 20 CFR 901.48 - Proposed findings and conclusions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 20 Employees' Benefits 3 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Proposed findings and conclusions. 901.48 Section 901.48 Employees' Benefits JOINT BOARD FOR THE ENROLLMENT OF ACTUARIES REGULATIONS GOVERNING THE PERFORMANCE OF ACTUARIAL SERVICES UNDER THE EMPLOYEE RETIREMENT INCOME SECURITY ACT OF 1974 Suspension...

  10. 22 CFR 18.18 - Proposed findings and conclusions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Proposed findings and conclusions. 18.18 Section 18.18 Foreign Relations DEPARTMENT OF STATE PERSONNEL REGULATIONS CONCERNING POST EMPLOYMENT CONFLICT OF INTEREST Administrative Enforcement Proceedings § 18.18 Proposed findings and...

  11. DEFENSE PROGRAMS RISK MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Constantin PREDA

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available For the past years defense programs have faced delays in delivering defense capabilities and budget overruns. Stakeholders are looking for ways to improve program management and the decision making process given the very fluid and uncertain economic and political environment. Consequently, they have increasingly resorted to risk management as the main management tool for achieving defense programs objectives and for delivering the defense capabilities strongly needed for the soldiers on the ground on time and within limited defense budgets. Following a risk management based decision-making approach the stakeholders are expected not only to protect program objectives against a wide range of risks but, at the same time, to take advantage of the opportunities to increase the likelihood of program success. The prerequisite for making risk management the main tool for achieving defense programs objectives is the design and implementation of a strong risk management framework as a foundation providing an efficient and effective application of the best risk management practices. The aim of this paper is to examine the risk management framework for defense programs based on the ISO 31000:2009 standard, best risk management practices and the defense programs’ needs and particularities. For the purposes of this article, the term of defense programs refers to joint defense programs.

  12. Factors associated with results and conclusions of trials of thiazolidinediones.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gail Rattinger

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: When a sponsor funds a study of two competing drugs in a head-to-head comparison, the results and conclusions are likely to favor the sponsor's drug. Thiazolidinediones, oral medications used for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, are one of the most costly choices of oral anti-diabetic medications, yet they do not demonstrate clinically relevant differences in achieving lower glycosylated hemoglobin levels compared to other oral antidiabetic drugs. Our aim is to examine associations between research funding source, study design characteristics aimed at reducing bias, and other factors with the results and conclusions of randomized controlled trials (RCTs of thiazolidinediones compared to other oral hypoglycemic agents. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This is a cross-sectional study of 61 published RCTs comparing a thiazolidinedione (glitazone to another anti-diabetic drug or placebo for treatment of type 2 diabetes. Data on study design characteristics, funding source, author's financial ties, results for primary outcomes, and author conclusions were extracted. Univariate logistic regression identified associations between independent variables and results and conclusions that favored the glitazone. Of the RCTs, 59% (36/61 were funded by industry, 39% (24/61 did not disclose any funding. Common study design weaknesses included inadequate blinding and lack of concealment of allocation. Trials that reported favorable glycemic control results for the glitazone were more likely to have adequate blinding (OR (95% CI = 5.42 (1.46, 21.19, p = 0.008 and have a corresponding author with financial ties to the glitazone manufacturer (OR (95% CI = 4.12 (1.05, 19.53; p = 0.04. Trials with conclusions favoring the glitazone were less likely to be funded by a comparator drug company than a glitazone company (OR (95% CI = 0.026 (0, 0.40, p = 0.003 and less likely to be published in journals with higher impact factors (OR (95% CI = 0.79 (0.62, 0.97, p = 0

  13. EMU – Fiscal Challenges: Conclusions For the New EU Members.

    OpenAIRE

    2005-01-01

    The aim of the paper is to evaluate fiscal challenges which are facing the Economic and Monetary Union countries after four years of monetary union functioning. Then, the author formulates conclusions for accession countries which are planning to become members of the Economic and Monetary Unions in the near future. The first part of the paper deals with the criteria of fiscal stabilization within EMU, their significance and links to economic growth. On the one hand, these criteria limit poss...

  14. Do Economists Reach a Conclusion on Household and Municipal Recycling?

    OpenAIRE

    Matthew Gunter

    2007-01-01

    Do economists reach a conclusion on household and municipal recycling? I explore the policy judgments of published economists on recycling and find that there is no broad consensus. The mainstream recycling literature is dominated by a guided-market approach; taxes and subsidies are advocated to correct for market failures. There are two less popular but still significant approaches: a minimal government laissez faire approach and a command and control regulatory approach. Laissez faire econo...

  15. Review conclusions by Ernst and Canter regarding spinal manipulation refuted

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evans Roni

    2006-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract In the April 2006 issue of the Journal of Royal Society of Medicine, Ernst and Canter authored a review of the most recent systematic reviews on the effectiveness of spinal manipulation for any condition. The authors concluded that, except for back pain, spinal manipulation is not an effective intervention for any condition and, because of potential side effects, cannot be recommended for use at all in clinical practice. Based on a critical appraisal of their review, the authors of this commentary seriously challenge the conclusions by Ernst and Canter, who did not adhere to standard systematic review methodology, thus threatening the validity of their conclusions. There was no systematic assessment of the literature pertaining to the hazards of manipulation, including comparison to other therapies. Hence, their claim that the risks of manipulation outweigh the benefits, and thus spinal manipulation cannot be recommended as treatment for any condition, was not supported by the data analyzed. Their conclusions are misleading and not based on evidence that allow discrediting of a large body of professionals using spinal manipulation.

  16. Synthetic Plant Defense Elicitors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yasemin eBektas

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available To defend themselves against invading pathogens plants utilize a complex regulatory network that coordinates extensive transcriptional and metabolic reprogramming. Although many of the key players of this immunity-associated network are known, the details of its topology and dynamics are still poorly understood. As an alternative to forward and reverse genetic studies, chemical genetics-related approaches based on bioactive small molecules have gained substantial popularity in the analysis of biological pathways and networks. Use of such molecular probes can allow researchers to access biological space that was previously inaccessible to genetic analyses due to gene redundancy or lethality of mutations. Synthetic elicitors are small drug like molecules that induce plant defense responses, but are distinct from known natural elicitors of plant immunity. While the discovery of the some synthetic elicitors had already been reported in the 1970s, recent breakthroughs in combinatorial chemical synthesis now allow for inexpensive high-throughput screens for bioactive plant defense-inducing compounds. Along with powerful reverse genetics tools and resources available for model plants and crop systems, comprehensive collections of new synthetic elicitors will likely allow plant scientists to study the intricacies of plant defense signaling pathways and networks in an unparalleled fashion. As synthetic elicitors can protect crops from diseases, without the need to be directly toxic for pathogenic organisms, they may also serve as promising alternatives to conventional biocidal pesticides, which often are harmful for the environment, farmers and consumers. Here we are discussing various types of synthetic elicitors that have been used for studies on the plant immune system, their modes-of-action as well as their application in crop protection.

  17. Nanomaterials for Defense Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turaga, Uday; Singh, Vinitkumar; Lalagiri, Muralidhar; Kiekens, Paul; Ramkumar, Seshadri S.

    Nanotechnology has found a number of applications in electronics and healthcare. Within the textile field, applications of nanotechnology have been limited to filters, protective liners for chemical and biological clothing and nanocoatings. This chapter presents an overview of the applications of nanomaterials such as nanofibers and nanoparticles that are of use to military and industrial sectors. An effort has been made to categorize nanofibers based on the method of production. This chapter particularly focuses on a few latest developments that have taken place with regard to the application of nanomaterials such as metal oxides in the defense arena.

  18. Phenomenon of Psychological Defense

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena T. Sokolova

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The author discusses the controversial issues of formation and functioning of psy¬chological defense mechanisms in ontogenesis and in personality disorders as they are represented in classical and contemporary psychoanalysis, in cognitivism and communication theory. The paper emphasizes the role of cognitive organi¬zation (style, sign-symbolic mediation, representative system of object relations and attachments in individual typological variability of the level organization of ciency of personal and social adaptation, in maturity and mental health of personality

  19. An Inference Language for Imaging

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedemonte, Stefano; Catana, Ciprian; Van Leemput, Koen

    2014-01-01

    We introduce iLang, a language and software framework for probabilistic inference. The iLang framework enables the definition of directed and undirected probabilistic graphical models and the automated synthesis of high performance inference algorithms for imaging applications. The iLang framework...... is composed of a set of language primitives and of an inference engine based on a message-passing system that integrates cutting-edge computational tools, including proximal algorithms and high performance Hamiltonian Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques. A set of domain-specific highly optimized GPU......-accelerated primitives specializes iLang to the spatial data-structures that arise in imaging applications. We illustrate the framework through a challenging application: spatio-temporal tomographic reconstruction with compressive sensing....

  20. Locative inferences in medical texts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayer, P S; Bailey, G H; Mayer, R J; Hillis, A; Dvoracek, J E

    1987-06-01

    Medical research relies on epidemiological studies conducted on a large set of clinical records that have been collected from physicians recording individual patient observations. These clinical records are recorded for the purpose of individual care of the patient with little consideration for their use by a biostatistician interested in studying a disease over a large population. Natural language processing of clinical records for epidemiological studies must deal with temporal, locative, and conceptual issues. This makes text understanding and data extraction of clinical records an excellent area for applied research. While much has been done in making temporal or conceptual inferences in medical texts, parallel work in locative inferences has not been done. This paper examines the locative inferences as well as the integration of temporal, locative, and conceptual issues in the clinical record understanding domain by presenting an application that utilizes two key concepts in its parsing strategy--a knowledge-based parsing strategy and a minimal lexicon.

  1. Sick, the spectroscopic inference crank

    CERN Document Server

    Casey, Andrew R

    2016-01-01

    There exists an inordinate amount of spectral data in both public and private astronomical archives which remain severely under-utilised. The lack of reliable open-source tools for analysing large volumes of spectra contributes to this situation, which is poised to worsen as large surveys successively release orders of magnitude more spectra. In this Article I introduce sick, the spectroscopic inference crank, a flexible and fast Bayesian tool for inferring astrophysical parameters from spectra. sick can be used to provide a nearest-neighbour estimate of model parameters, a numerically optimised point estimate, or full Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling of the posterior probability distributions. This generality empowers any astronomer to capitalise on the plethora of published synthetic and observed spectra, and make precise inferences for a host of astrophysical (and nuisance) quantities. Model intensities can be reliably approximated from existing grids of synthetic or observed spectra using linear multi-di...

  2. Bootstrapping phylogenies inferred from rearrangement data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lin Yu

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Large-scale sequencing of genomes has enabled the inference of phylogenies based on the evolution of genomic architecture, under such events as rearrangements, duplications, and losses. Many evolutionary models and associated algorithms have been designed over the last few years and have found use in comparative genomics and phylogenetic inference. However, the assessment of phylogenies built from such data has not been properly addressed to date. The standard method used in sequence-based phylogenetic inference is the bootstrap, but it relies on a large number of homologous characters that can be resampled; yet in the case of rearrangements, the entire genome is a single character. Alternatives such as the jackknife suffer from the same problem, while likelihood tests cannot be applied in the absence of well established probabilistic models. Results We present a new approach to the assessment of distance-based phylogenetic inference from whole-genome data; our approach combines features of the jackknife and the bootstrap and remains nonparametric. For each feature of our method, we give an equivalent feature in the sequence-based framework; we also present the results of extensive experimental testing, in both sequence-based and genome-based frameworks. Through the feature-by-feature comparison and the experimental results, we show that our bootstrapping approach is on par with the classic phylogenetic bootstrap used in sequence-based reconstruction, and we establish the clear superiority of the classic bootstrap for sequence data and of our corresponding new approach for rearrangement data over proposed variants. Finally, we test our approach on a small dataset of mammalian genomes, verifying that the support values match current thinking about the respective branches. Conclusions Our method is the first to provide a standard of assessment to match that of the classic phylogenetic bootstrap for aligned sequences. Its

  3. Eight challenges in phylodynamic inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon D.W. Frost

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The field of phylodynamics, which attempts to enhance our understanding of infectious disease dynamics using pathogen phylogenies, has made great strides in the past decade. Basic epidemiological and evolutionary models are now well characterized with inferential frameworks in place. However, significant challenges remain in extending phylodynamic inference to more complex systems. These challenges include accounting for evolutionary complexities such as changing mutation rates, selection, reassortment, and recombination, as well as epidemiological complexities such as stochastic population dynamics, host population structure, and different patterns at the within-host and between-host scales. An additional challenge exists in making efficient inferences from an ever increasing corpus of sequence data.

  4. Automatic Inference of DATR Theories

    CERN Document Server

    Barg, P

    1996-01-01

    This paper presents an approach for the automatic acquisition of linguistic knowledge from unstructured data. The acquired knowledge is represented in the lexical knowledge representation language DATR. A set of transformation rules that establish inheritance relationships and a default-inference algorithm make up the basis components of the system. Since the overall approach is not restricted to a special domain, the heuristic inference strategy uses criteria to evaluate the quality of a DATR theory, where different domains may require different criteria. The system is applied to the linguistic learning task of German noun inflection.

  5. Perception, illusions and Bayesian inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nour, Matthew M; Nour, Joseph M

    2015-01-01

    Descriptive psychopathology makes a distinction between veridical perception and illusory perception. In both cases a perception is tied to a sensory stimulus, but in illusions the perception is of a false object. This article re-examines this distinction in light of new work in theoretical and computational neurobiology, which views all perception as a form of Bayesian statistical inference that combines sensory signals with prior expectations. Bayesian perceptual inference can solve the 'inverse optics' problem of veridical perception and provides a biologically plausible account of a number of illusory phenomena, suggesting that veridical and illusory perceptions are generated by precisely the same inferential mechanisms.

  6. Object-Oriented Type Inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schwartzbach, Michael Ignatieff; Palsberg, Jens

    1991-01-01

    We present a new approach to inferring types in untyped object-oriented programs with inheritance, assignments, and late binding. It guarantees that all messages are understood, annotates the program with type information, allows polymorphic methods, and can be used as the basis of an op-timizing......We present a new approach to inferring types in untyped object-oriented programs with inheritance, assignments, and late binding. It guarantees that all messages are understood, annotates the program with type information, allows polymorphic methods, and can be used as the basis of an op...

  7. Defensive engagement and perceptual enhancement

    OpenAIRE

    Keil, Andreas; Bradley, Margaret M; Ihssen, Niklas; Heim, Sabine; Vila, Jaime; Guerra, Pedro; Lang, Peter J.

    2010-01-01

    We tested whether visual cortical sensitivity to external cues in the context of an acute defensive reaction is heightened or attenuated. A strong cardiac defense (fear) response was elicited by presenting an abrupt, loud acoustic stimulus following a 10-minute period of quiescence. Electrocortical responses to aversive and neutral pictures following defensive stimulus onset were measured using dense-array EEG. Pictures were flickered at 12.5 Hz to evoke steady-state visual evoked potentials ...

  8. Ballistic Missile Defense System (BMDS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Estimate RDT&E - Research , Development, Test, and Evaluation SAR - Selected Acquisition Report SCP - Service Cost Position TBD - To Be Determined TY - Then...all ranges and in all phases of flight. Following guidance from the President, the Secretary of Defense approved the Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD...based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system to enhance our capability against Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles. We are currently sustaining 30

  9. Conclusions from the Image Analysis of the VSOP Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dodson, R.; Fomalont, E.; Wiik, K.

    2009-08-01

    In February 1997, the Japanese radio astronomy satellite HALCA was launched to provide the space-bourne element for the VLBI Space Observatory Programme (VSOP) mission. A significant fraction of the mission time was to be dedicated to the VSOP Survey of bright compact Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) at 5 GHz, which was lead by ISAS. The VSOP Survey Sources are an unbiased dataset of 294 targets, of which 82% were successfully observed. These are now undergoing statistical analysis to tease out the characteristics of typical AGN sources. We present here the summary of the imaging and conclusions we have reached.

  10. Conclusive quantum steering with superconducting transition edge sensors

    CERN Document Server

    Smith, Devin H; de Almeida, Marcelo; Branciard, Cyril; Fedrizzi, Alessandro; Weinhold, Till J; Lita, Adriana; Calkins, Brice; Gerrits, Thomas; Nam, Sae Woo; White, Andrew G

    2011-01-01

    Quantum steering allows two parties to verify shared entanglement even if one measurement device is untrusted. A conclusive demonstration of steering through the violation of a steering inequality is of considerable fundamental interest and opens up applications in quantum communication. To date all experimental tests with single photon states have relied on post-selection, allowing untrusted devices to cheat by hiding unfavorable events in losses. Here we close this "detection loophole" by combining a highly efficient source of entangled photon pairs with superconducting transition edge sensors. We achieve an unprecedented $\\sim$62% conditional detection efficiency of entangled photons and violate a steering inequality with the minimal number of measurement settings by 48 standard deviations. Our results provide a clear path to practical applications of steering and to a photonic loophole-free Bell test.

  11. The European Food Consumption Validation Project: conclusions and recommendations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    de Boer, E. J.; Slimani, N.; van 't Veer, P.

    2011-01-01

    Background/Objectives: To outline and discuss the main results and conclusions of the European Food Consumption Validation (EFCOVAL) Project. Subjects/Methods: The EFCOVAL Project was carried out within the EU Sixth Framework Program by researchers in 11 EU countries. The activities focused on (1...... showed that two non-consecutive EPIC-Soft 24-HDRs are suitable to estimate the usual intake distributions of protein and potassium of European adult populations. The 2-day non-consecutive 24-HDRs in combination with a food propensity questionnaire also appeared to be appropriate to rank individuals...... according to their fish and fruit and vegetable intake in a comparable way in five European centers. Dietary intake of (young) children can be assessed by the combination of EPIC-Soft 24-HDRs and food recording booklets. The EPIC-Soft-standardized method of describing foods is useful to estimate dietary...

  12. Inference in hybrid Bayesian networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lanseth, Helge; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre; Rumí, Rafael

    2009-01-01

    Since the 1980s, Bayesian Networks (BNs) have become increasingly popular for building statistical models of complex systems. This is particularly true for boolean systems, where BNs often prove to be a more efficient modelling framework than traditional reliability-techniques (like fault trees...... decade's research on inference in hybrid Bayesian networks. The discussions are linked to an example model for estimating human reliability....

  13. Bayesian inference for Hawkes processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Jakob Gulddahl

    The Hawkes process is a practically and theoretically important class of point processes, but parameter-estimation for such a process can pose various problems. In this paper we explore and compare two approaches to Bayesian inference. The first approach is based on the so-called conditional...

  14. Bayesian inference for Hawkes processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Jakob Gulddahl

    2013-01-01

    The Hawkes process is a practically and theoretically important class of point processes, but parameter-estimation for such a process can pose various problems. In this paper we explore and compare two approaches to Bayesian inference. The first approach is based on the so-called conditional...

  15. Bayesian inference for Hawkes processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Jakob Gulddahl

    The Hawkes process is a practically and theoretically important class of point processes, but parameter-estimation for such a process can pose various problems. In this paper we explore and compare two approaches to Bayesian inference. The first approach is based on the so-called conditional...

  16. On principles of inductive inference

    CERN Document Server

    Kostecki, Ryszard Paweł

    2011-01-01

    We discuss the mathematical and conceptual problems of main approaches to foundations of probability theory and statistical inference and propose new foundational approach, aimed to improve the mathematical structure of the theory and to bypass the old conceptual problems. In particular, we introduce the intersubjective interpretation of probability, which is designed to deal with the troubles of `subjective' and `objective' bayesian interpretations.

  17. Regular inference as vertex coloring

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Costa Florêncio, C.; Verwer, S.

    2012-01-01

    This paper is concerned with the problem of supervised learning of deterministic finite state automata, in the technical sense of identification in the limit from complete data, by finding a minimal DFA consistent with the data (regular inference). We solve this problem by translating it in its enti

  18. Type inference for COBOL systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Deursen, A. van; Moonen, L.M.F.

    1998-01-01

    Types are a good starting point for various software reengineering tasks. Unfortunately, programs requiring reengineering most desperately are written in languages without an adequate type system (such as COBOL). To solve this problem, we propose a method of automated type inference for these lang

  19. Regular inference as vertex coloring

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Costa Florêncio, C.; Verwer, S.

    2012-01-01

    This paper is concerned with the problem of supervised learning of deterministic finite state automata, in the technical sense of identification in the limit from complete data, by finding a minimal DFA consistent with the data (regular inference). We solve this problem by translating it in its

  20. Statistical inference on variance components

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verdooren, L.R.

    1988-01-01

    In several sciences but especially in animal and plant breeding, the general mixed model with fixed and random effects plays a great role. Statistical inference on variance components means tests of hypotheses about variance components, constructing confidence intervals for them, estimating them,

  1. Covering, Packing and Logical Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    1993-10-01

    of Operations Research 43 (1993). [34] *Hooker, J. N., Generalized resolution for 0-1 linear inequalities, Annals of Mathematics and A 16 271-286. [35...Hooker, J. N. and C. Fedjki, Branch-and-cut solution of inference prob- lems in propositional logic, Annals of Mathematics and AI 1 (1990) 123-140. [40

  2. Mathematical Programming and Logical Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    1990-12-01

    solution of inference problems in propositional logic, to appear in Annals of Mathematics and Al. (271 Howard, R. A., and J. E. Matheson, Influence...1981). (281 Jeroslow, R., and J. Wang, Solving propositional satisfiability problems, to appear in Annals of Mathematics and Al. [29] Nilsson, N. J

  3. An Introduction to Causal Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-11-02

    legitimize causal inference, has removed causation from its natural habitat, and distorted its face beyond recognition. This exclusivist attitude is...In contrast, when the mediation problem is approached from an exclusivist potential-outcome viewpoint, void of the structural guidance of Eq. (28

  4. Inferring biochemical reaction pathways: the case of the gemcitabine pharmacokinetics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lecca Paola

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The representation of a biochemical system as a network is the precursor of any mathematical model of the processes driving the dynamics of that system. Pharmacokinetics uses mathematical models to describe the interactions between drug, and drug metabolites and targets and through the simulation of these models predicts drug levels and/or dynamic behaviors of drug entities in the body. Therefore, the development of computational techniques for inferring the interaction network of the drug entities and its kinetic parameters from observational data is raising great interest in the scientific community of pharmacologists. In fact, the network inference is a set of mathematical procedures deducing the structure of a model from the experimental data associated to the nodes of the network of interactions. In this paper, we deal with the inference of a pharmacokinetic network from the concentrations of the drug and its metabolites observed at discrete time points. Results The method of network inference presented in this paper is inspired by the theory of time-lagged correlation inference with regard to the deduction of the interaction network, and on a maximum likelihood approach with regard to the estimation of the kinetic parameters of the network. Both network inference and parameter estimation have been designed specifically to identify systems of biotransformations, at the biochemical level, from noisy time-resolved experimental data. We use our inference method to deduce the metabolic pathway of the gemcitabine. The inputs to our inference algorithm are the experimental time series of the concentration of gemcitabine and its metabolites. The output is the set of reactions of the metabolic network of the gemcitabine. Conclusions Time-lagged correlation based inference pairs up to a probabilistic model of parameter inference from metabolites time series allows the identification of the microscopic pharmacokinetics and

  5. European Missile Defense and Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-07-01

    most senior level—the only one that matters in Russian decisionmaking cul - ture—is also of significance today and will also be re- ferred to later in... org /missile-defense/us-ballistic-missile-defense/p30607. 9. Email exchange with author, July 2013. 10. “Safeguard,” Washington, DC: Federation of Ameri

  6. Employee counseling services evaluation system: design, issues and conclusions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masi, D A; Teems, L A

    1983-01-01

    Employee Counseling Services (ECS) programs have emerged as an effective method for dealing with employees whose job performance has deteriorated due to personal problems such as alcoholism or drug abuse. It is estimated that 18% of any work force is effected by such problems at any given time and that these employees cost industry billions of dollars annually in lost productivity, abuse of sick leave, etc. One of the critical concerns of this emerging field is the need for comprehensive evaluation that can demonstrate the cost-effectiveness and cost-benefits of ECS programs. This paper will describe the model Federal ECS developed at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services as well as the components of the evaluation system designed to determine its effectiveness. The system is the first of its kind and will be a valuable contribution to the field. The paper then raises issues and develops conclusions about designing such an evaluation within the context of a large bureaucracy.

  7. Bionics in Engineering Education Considerations, Experiences and Conclusions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ralf Neurohr

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available During recent years bionics, a new discipline which is in charge with the transfer of the principles of construction, regulation, interaction and organisation of biology into innovative technical solutions, has attracted significant interest from various industries. Based on this request for bionic expertise in engineering, the faculty for teaching engineering in foreign languages (FILS at ‘Politehnica’ University of Bucharest started a course in bionics in SS 2007, which was supported by the expertise of the German ‘Bionik-Kompetenz-Netz’, one of the leading organizations in bionics. This is the report on the considerations involved in the course concept, the first experiences with the students' acceptance, some conclusions and future perspectives for extending bionics activities at ‘Politehnica’. Finally, within the last section, the evaluation of a questionnaire, filled in by the students at the end of the course, will be presented. In order to avoid any confusion, considering overlapping or mixing up with other bio-disciplines related to technology, the paper starts with a short introduction, explaining the principles of bionics and providing a clear definition of the field.

  8. Spontaneous evaluative inferences and their relationship to spontaneous trait inferences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneid, Erica D; Carlston, Donal E; Skowronski, John J

    2015-05-01

    Three experiments are reported that explore affectively based spontaneous evaluative impressions (SEIs) of stimulus persons. Experiments 1 and 2 used modified versions of the savings in relearning paradigm (Carlston & Skowronski, 1994) to confirm the occurrence of SEIs, indicating that they are equivalent whether participants are instructed to form trait impressions, evaluative impressions, or neither. These experiments also show that SEIs occur independently of explicit recall for the trait implications of the stimuli. Experiment 3 provides a single dissociation test to distinguish SEIs from spontaneous trait inferences (STIs), showing that disrupting cognitive processing interferes with a trait-based prediction task that presumably reflects STIs, but not with an affectively based social approach task that presumably reflects SEIs. Implications of these findings for the potential independence of spontaneous trait and evaluative inferences, as well as limitations and important steps for future study are discussed. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  9. Plant defense against insect herbivores

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fürstenberg-Hägg, Joel; Zagrobelny, Mika; Bak, Søren

    2013-01-01

    defense responses. Plants also apply morphological features like waxes, trichomes and latices to make the feeding more difficult for the insects. Extrafloral nectar, food bodies and nesting or refuge sites are produced to accommodate and feed the predators of the herbivores. Meanwhile, herbivorous insects......Plants have been interacting with insects for several hundred million years, leading to complex defense approaches against various insect feeding strategies. Some defenses are constitutive while others are induced, although the insecticidal defense compound or protein classes are often similar....... Insect herbivory induce several internal signals from the wounded tissues, including calcium ion fluxes, phosphorylation cascades and systemic- and jasmonate signaling. These are perceived in undamaged tissues, which thereafter reinforce their defense by producing different, mostly low molecular weight...

  10. Collaborative Automation Reliably Remediating Erroneous Conclusion Threats (CARRECT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lansey, Jonathan C.; Picciano, Paul; Yohai, Ian; Grant, Fred; Gern, Robert

    2013-01-01

    Objective The objective of the CARRECT software is to make cutting edge statistical methods for reducing bias in epidemiological studies easy to use and useful for both novice and expert users. Introduction Analyses produced by epidemiologists and public health practitioners are susceptible to bias from a number of sources including missing data, confounding variables, and statistical model selection. It often requires a great deal of expertise to understand and apply the multitude of tests, corrections, and selection rules, and these tasks can be time-consuming and burdensome. To address this challenge, Aptima began development of CARRECT, the Collaborative Automation Reliably Remediating Erroneous Conclusion Threats system. When complete, CARRECT will provide an expert system that can be embedded in an analyst’s workflow. CARRECT will support statistical bias reduction and improved analyses and decision making by engaging the user in a collaborative process in which the technology is transparent to the analyst. Methods Older approaches to imputing missing data, including mean imputation and single imputation regression methods, have steadily given way to a class of methods known as “multiple imputation” (hereafter “MI”; Rubin 1987). Rather than making the restrictive assumption that the data are missing completely at random (MCAR), MI typically assumes the data are missing at random (MAR). There are two key innovations behind MI. First, the observed values can be useful in predicting the missing cells, and thus specifying a joint distribution of the data is the first step in implementing the models. Second, single imputation methods will likely fail not only because of the inherent uncertainty in the missing values but also because of the estimation uncertainty associated with generating the parameters in the imputation procedure itself. By contrast, drawing the missing values multiple times, thereby generating m complete datasets along with the

  11. Deontic introduction: A theory of inference from is to ought.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elqayam, Shira; Thompson, Valerie A; Wilkinson, Meredith R; Evans, Jonathan St B T; Over, David E

    2015-09-01

    Humans have a unique ability to generate novel norms. Faced with the knowledge that there are hungry children in Somalia, we easily and naturally infer that we ought to donate to famine relief charities. Although a contentious and lively issue in metaethics, such inference from "is" to "ought" has not been systematically studied in the psychology of reasoning. We propose that deontic introduction is the result of a rich chain of pragmatic inference, most of it implicit; specifically, when an action is causally linked to a valenced goal, valence transfers to the action and bridges into a deontic conclusion. Participants in 5 experiments were presented with utility conditionals in which an action results in a benefit, a cost, or neutral outcome (e.g., "If Lisa buys the booklet, she will pass the exam") and asked to evaluate how strongly deontic conclusions (e.g., "Lisa should buy the booklet") follow from the premises. Findings show that the direction of the conclusions was determined by outcome valence (Experiments 1a and 1b), whereas their strength was determined by the strength of the causal link between action and outcome (Experiments 1, 2a, and 2b). We also found that deontic introduction is defeasible and can be suppressed by additional premises that interfere with any of the links in the implicit chain of inference (Experiments 2a, 2b, and 3). We propose that deontic introduction is a species-specific generative capacity whose function is to regulate future behavior.

  12. Anterior Chamber Contamination at the Conclusion of Phacoemulsification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad-Reza Soleimani

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available

    PURPOSE: To evaluate anterior chamber aspirates at the conclusion of phacoemulsification and intraocular lens implantation (PE+IOL for bacterial and fungal contamination. METHODS: We prospectively evaluated 80 eyes of 80 patients undergoing routine PE+IOL by performing bacterial and fungal culture on aspirates obtained from the anterior chamber at the end of the surgery. RESULTS: Anterior chamber fluid aspirates were positive for bacteria in 5 eyes (6.33% with coagulase-negative staphylococcus being the most common organism (three eyes. No instance of positive fungus culture was observed. One of the culture-positive eyes developed postoperative uveitis which resolved during a week of treatment with topical corticosteroids and antibiotics.  None of the eyes developed endophthalmitis. CONCLUSION: In the current series, the rate of anterior chamber contamination by bacteria at the end of phacoemulsification was in the lower range reported by previous studies.  

  1. Bayesian inference on proportional elections.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Hideki Vatanabe Brunello

    Full Text Available Polls for majoritarian voting systems usually show estimates of the percentage of votes for each candidate. However, proportional vote systems do not necessarily guarantee the candidate with the most percentage of votes will be elected. Thus, traditional methods used in majoritarian elections cannot be applied on proportional elections. In this context, the purpose of this paper was to perform a Bayesian inference on proportional elections considering the Brazilian system of seats distribution. More specifically, a methodology to answer the probability that a given party will have representation on the chamber of deputies was developed. Inferences were made on a Bayesian scenario using the Monte Carlo simulation technique, and the developed methodology was applied on data from the Brazilian elections for Members of the Legislative Assembly and Federal Chamber of Deputies in 2010. A performance rate was also presented to evaluate the efficiency of the methodology. Calculations and simulations were carried out using the free R statistical software.

  2. Causal inference based on counterfactuals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Höfler M

    2005-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The counterfactual or potential outcome model has become increasingly standard for causal inference in epidemiological and medical studies. Discussion This paper provides an overview on the counterfactual and related approaches. A variety of conceptual as well as practical issues when estimating causal effects are reviewed. These include causal interactions, imperfect experiments, adjustment for confounding, time-varying exposures, competing risks and the probability of causation. It is argued that the counterfactual model of causal effects captures the main aspects of causality in health sciences and relates to many statistical procedures. Summary Counterfactuals are the basis of causal inference in medicine and epidemiology. Nevertheless, the estimation of counterfactual differences pose several difficulties, primarily in observational studies. These problems, however, reflect fundamental barriers only when learning from observations, and this does not invalidate the counterfactual concept.

  3. Secretary of Defense Report to Congress. Actions to Accelerate the Movement to the New Workforce Vision

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-07

    President of the Senate Washington DC 20510 Dear Mr. President: Section 912(c) of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 1998 directs the...Technology), as discussed with your staff, established a Defense Science Board Sub-Task Force on the Acquisition Workforce to conduct an independent...letter. I have reviewed the Defense Science Board (DSB) report, have fully considered the DSB’s conclusions and recommendations, and have incorporated the

  4. Applied statistical inference with MINITAB

    CERN Document Server

    Lesik, Sally

    2009-01-01

    Through clear, step-by-step mathematical calculations, Applied Statistical Inference with MINITAB enables students to gain a solid understanding of how to apply statistical techniques using a statistical software program. It focuses on the concepts of confidence intervals, hypothesis testing, validating model assumptions, and power analysis.Illustrates the techniques and methods using MINITABAfter introducing some common terminology, the author explains how to create simple graphs using MINITAB and how to calculate descriptive statistics using both traditional hand computations and MINITAB. Sh

  5. Security Inference from Noisy Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-04-08

    Junk Mail Samples (JMS)” later) is collected from Hotmail using a different method. JMS is collected from email in inboxes that is reported as spam (or...The data consist of side channel traces from attackers: spam email messages received by Hotmail, one of the largest Web mail services. The basic...similar content and determining the senders of these email messages, one can infer the composition of the botnet. This approach can analyze botnets re

  6. Optimal Inference in Cointegrated Systems

    OpenAIRE

    1988-01-01

    This paper studies the properties of maximum likelihood estimates of co-integrated systems. Alternative formulations of such models are considered including a new triangular system error correction mechanism. It is shown that full system maximum likelihood brings the problem of inference within the family that is covered by the locally asymptotically mixed normal asymptotic theory provided that all unit roots in the system have been eliminated by specification and data transformation. This re...

  7. Inferring Centrality from Network Snapshots

    OpenAIRE

    Haibin Shao; Mehran Mesbahi; Dewei Li; Yugeng Xi

    2017-01-01

    The topology and dynamics of a complex network shape its functionality. However, the topologies of many large-scale networks are either unavailable or incomplete. Without the explicit knowledge of network topology, we show how the data generated from the network dynamics can be utilised to infer the tempo centrality, which is proposed to quantify the influence of nodes in a consensus network. We show that the tempo centrality can be used to construct an accurate estimate of both the propagati...

  8. On Quantum Statistical Inference, II

    OpenAIRE

    Barndorff-Nielsen, O. E.; Gill, R. D.; Jupp, P.E.

    2003-01-01

    Interest in problems of statistical inference connected to measurements of quantum systems has recently increased substantially, in step with dramatic new developments in experimental techniques for studying small quantum systems. Furthermore, theoretical developments in the theory of quantum measurements have brought the basic mathematical framework for the probability calculations much closer to that of classical probability theory. The present paper reviews this field and proposes and inte...

  9. Cosmological Gamma-Ray Bursts and Hypernovae Conclusively Linked

    Science.gov (United States)

    2003-06-01

    Clearest-Ever Evidence from VLT Spectra of Powerful Event Summary A very bright burst of gamma-rays was observed on March 29, 2003 by NASA's High Energy Transient Explorer (HETE-II) , in a sky region within the constellation Leo. Within 90 min, a new, very bright light source (the "optical afterglow") was detected in the same direction by means of a 40-inch telescope at the Siding Spring Observatory (Australia) and also in Japan. The gamma-ray burst was designated GRB 030329 , according to the date. And within 24 hours, a first, very detailed spectrum of this new object was obtained by the UVES high-dispersion spectrograph on the 8.2-m VLT KUEYEN telescope at the ESO Paranal Observatory (Chile). It allowed to determine the distance as about 2,650 million light-years (redshift 0.1685). Continued observations with the FORS1 and FORS2 multi-mode instruments on the VLT during the following month allowed an international team of astronomers [1] to document in unprecedented detail the changes in the spectrum of the optical afterglow of this gamma-ray burst . Their detailed report appears in the June 19 issue of the research journal "Nature". The spectra show the gradual and clear emergence of a supernova spectrum of the most energetic class known, a "hypernova" . This is caused by the explosion of a very heavy star - presumably over 25 times heavier than the Sun. The measured expansion velocity (in excess of 30,000 km/sec) and the total energy released were exceptionally high, even within the elect hypernova class. From a comparison with more nearby hypernovae, the astronomers are able to fix with good accuracy the moment of the stellar explosion. It turns out to be within an interval of plus/minus two days of the gamma-ray burst. This unique conclusion provides compelling evidence that the two events are directly connected. These observations therefore indicate a common physical process behind the hypernova explosion and the associated emission of strong gamma

  10. Paradoxical versus modulated conditional inferences: An explanation from the Stoicism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miguel López-Astorga

    Full Text Available Abstract According to standard propositional logic, the inferences in which the conditional introduction rule is used are absolutely correct. However, people do not always accept inferences of that kind. Orenes and Johnson-Laird carried out interesting experiments in this way and, based on the general framework of the mental models theory, explained clearly in which cases and under which circumstances such inferences are accepted and rejected. The goals of this paper are both to better understand some aspects of Stoic logic and to check whether or not that very logic can also offer an account on this issue. My conclusions are that, indeed, this later logic can do that, and that the results obtained by Orenes and Johnson-Laird can be explained based on the information that the sources provide on Stoic logic.

  11. Bayesian multimodel inference for dose-response studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Link, W.A.; Albers, P.H.

    2007-01-01

    Statistical inference in dose?response studies is model-based: The analyst posits a mathematical model of the relation between exposure and response, estimates parameters of the model, and reports conclusions conditional on the model. Such analyses rarely include any accounting for the uncertainties associated with model selection. The Bayesian inferential system provides a convenient framework for model selection and multimodel inference. In this paper we briefly describe the Bayesian paradigm and Bayesian multimodel inference. We then present a family of models for multinomial dose?response data and apply Bayesian multimodel inferential methods to the analysis of data on the reproductive success of American kestrels (Falco sparveriuss) exposed to various sublethal dietary concentrations of methylmercury.

  12. An introduction to causal inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearl, Judea

    2010-02-26

    This paper summarizes recent advances in causal inference and underscores the paradigmatic shifts that must be undertaken in moving from traditional statistical analysis to causal analysis of multivariate data. Special emphasis is placed on the assumptions that underlie all causal inferences, the languages used in formulating those assumptions, the conditional nature of all causal and counterfactual claims, and the methods that have been developed for the assessment of such claims. These advances are illustrated using a general theory of causation based on the Structural Causal Model (SCM) described in Pearl (2000a), which subsumes and unifies other approaches to causation, and provides a coherent mathematical foundation for the analysis of causes and counterfactuals. In particular, the paper surveys the development of mathematical tools for inferring (from a combination of data and assumptions) answers to three types of causal queries: those about (1) the effects of potential interventions, (2) probabilities of counterfactuals, and (3) direct and indirect effects (also known as "mediation"). Finally, the paper defines the formal and conceptual relationships between the structural and potential-outcome frameworks and presents tools for a symbiotic analysis that uses the strong features of both. The tools are demonstrated in the analyses of mediation, causes of effects, and probabilities of causation.

  13. Automatic inference of indexing rules for MEDLINE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shooshan Sonya E

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background: Indexing is a crucial step in any information retrieval system. In MEDLINE, a widely used database of the biomedical literature, the indexing process involves the selection of Medical Subject Headings in order to describe the subject matter of articles. The need for automatic tools to assist MEDLINE indexers in this task is growing with the increasing number of publications being added to MEDLINE. Methods: In this paper, we describe the use and the customization of Inductive Logic Programming (ILP to infer indexing rules that may be used to produce automatic indexing recommendations for MEDLINE indexers. Results: Our results show that this original ILP-based approach outperforms manual rules when they exist. In addition, the use of ILP rules also improves the overall performance of the Medical Text Indexer (MTI, a system producing automatic indexing recommendations for MEDLINE. Conclusion: We expect the sets of ILP rules obtained in this experiment to be integrated into MTI.

  14. The Alaska earthquake, March 27, 1964: lessons and conclusions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eckel, Edwin B.

    1970-01-01

    local waves. Better earthquake-hazard maps, based on improved knowledge of regional geology, fault behavior, and earthquake mechanisms, are needed for the entire country. Their preparation will require the close collaboration of engineers, seismologists, and geologists. Geologic maps of all inhabited places in earthquake-prone parts of the country are also needed by city planners and others, because the direct relationship between local geology and potential earthquake damage is now well understood. Improved and enlarged nets of earthquake-sensing instruments, sited in relation to known geology, are needed, as are many more geodetic and hydrographic measurements. Every large earthquake, wherever located, should be regarded as a full-scale laboratory experiment whose study can give scientific and engineering information unobtainable from any other source. Plans must be made before the event to insure staffing, funding, and coordination of effort for the scientific and engineering study of future earthquakes. Advice of earth scientists and engineers should be used in the decision-making processes involved in reconstruction after any future disastrous earthquake, as was done after the Alaska earthquake. The volume closes with a selected bibliography and a comprehensive index to the entire series of U.S. Geological Survey Professional Papers 541-546. This is the last in a series of six reports that the U.S. Geological Survey published on the results of a comprehensive geologic study that began, as a reconnaissance survey, within 24 hours after the March 27, 1964, Magnitude 9.2 Great Alaska Earthquake and extended, as detailed investigations, through several field seasons. The 1964 Great Alaska earthquake was the largest earthquake in the U.S. since 1700. Professional Paper 546, in 1 part, describes Lessons and Conclusions.

  15. El: A Program for Ecological Inference

    OpenAIRE

    King, Gary

    2004-01-01

    The program EI provides a method of inferring individual behavior from aggregate data. It implements the statistical procedures, diagnostics, and graphics from the book A Solution to the Ecological Inference Problem: Reconstructing Individual Behavior from Aggregate Data (King 1997). Ecological inference, as traditionally defined, is the process of using aggregate (i.e., “ecological”) data to infer discrete individual-level relationships of interest when individual- level data are not avai...

  16. EI: A Program for Ecological Inference

    OpenAIRE

    Gary King

    2004-01-01

    The program EI provides a method of inferring individual behavior from aggregate data. It implements the statistical procedures, diagnostics, and graphics from the book A Solution to the Ecological Inference Problem: Reconstructing Individual Behavior from Aggregate Data (King 1997). Ecological inference, as traditionally defined, is the process of using aggregate (i.e., "ecological") data to infer discrete individual-level relationships of interest when individual-level data are not ava...

  17. Data-driven inference for the spatial scan statistic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Duczmal Luiz H

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Kulldorff's spatial scan statistic for aggregated area maps searches for clusters of cases without specifying their size (number of areas or geographic location in advance. Their statistical significance is tested while adjusting for the multiple testing inherent in such a procedure. However, as is shown in this work, this adjustment is not done in an even manner for all possible cluster sizes. Results A modification is proposed to the usual inference test of the spatial scan statistic, incorporating additional information about the size of the most likely cluster found. A new interpretation of the results of the spatial scan statistic is done, posing a modified inference question: what is the probability that the null hypothesis is rejected for the original observed cases map with a most likely cluster of size k, taking into account only those most likely clusters of size k found under null hypothesis for comparison? This question is especially important when the p-value computed by the usual inference process is near the alpha significance level, regarding the correctness of the decision based in this inference. Conclusions A practical procedure is provided to make more accurate inferences about the most likely cluster found by the spatial scan statistic.

  18. Defense Strategies Against Modern Botnets

    CERN Document Server

    Stankovic, Srdjan

    2009-01-01

    Botnets are networks of compromised computers with malicious code which are remotely controlled and which are used for starting distributed denial of service (DDoS) attacks, sending enormous number of e-mails (SPAM) and other sorts of attacks. Defense against modern Botnets is a real challenge. This paper offers several strategies for defense against Botnets with a list and description of measures and activities which should be carried out in order to establish successful defense. The paper also offers parallel preview of the strategies with their advantages and disadvantages considered in accordance with various criteria.

  19. Evidence and Inference in Educational Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1995-02-01

    Educational assessment concerns inference about students’ knowledge, skills, and accomplishments. Because data are never so comprehensive and...techniques can be viewed as applications of more general principles for inference in the presence of uncertainty. Issues of evidence and inference in educational assessment are discussed from this perspective. (AN)

  20. Quadrennial Defense Review and Ballistic Missile Defense Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-11

    global defense posture 3 BMDR Highlights • Outlines a strategy and policy framework to – Defend the homeland against limited ballistic missile attack...abroad – Collaborate closely with allies and partners – Pursue a cooperative and tailored global defense posture – Strengthen US civilian capacity...reviews in 2010 – QDR and BMDR released February 1, 2010 – Nuclear Posture Review to be released this spring – Space Posture Review, with Director of

  1. Molecular strategies of plant defense and insect counter-defense

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    KEYANZHU-SALZMAN; JIAN-LONGBI; TONG-XIANLIU

    2005-01-01

    The prediction of human population growth worldwide indicates there will be a need to substantially increase food production in order to meet the demand on food supply.This can be achieved in part by the effective management of insect pests. Since plants have co-evolved with herbivorous insects for millions of years, they have developed an array of defense genes to protect themselves against a wide variety of chewing and sucking insects.Using these naturally-occurring genes via genetic engineering represents an environmentally friendly insect pest-control measure. Insects, however, have been actively evolving adaptive mechanisms to evade natural plant defenses. Such evolved adaptability undoubtedly has helped insects during the last century to rapidly overcome a great many humanimposed management practices and agents, including chemical insecticides and genetically engineered plants. Thus, better understanding of the molecular and genetic basis of plant defense and insect counter-defense mechanisms is imperative, not only from a basic science perspective, but also for biotechnology-based pest control practice. In this review, we emphasize the recent advance and understanding of molecular strategies of attack-counterattack and defense-counter-defense between plants and their herbivores.

  2. Probabilistic learning and inference in schizophrenia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Averbeck, Bruno B.; Evans, Simon; Chouhan, Viraj; Bristow, Eleanor; Shergill, Sukhwinder S.

    2010-01-01

    Patients with schizophrenia make decisions on the basis of less evidence when required to collect information to make an inference, a behavior often called jumping to conclusions. The underlying basis for this behaviour remains controversial. We examined the cognitive processes underpinning this finding by testing subjects on the beads task, which has been used previously to elicit jumping to conclusions behaviour, and a stochastic sequence learning task, with a similar decision theoretic structure. During the sequence learning task, subjects had to learn a sequence of button presses, while receiving noisy feedback on their choices. We fit a Bayesian decision making model to the sequence task and compared model parameters to the choice behavior in the beads task in both patients and healthy subjects. We found that patients did show a jumping to conclusions style; and those who picked early in the beads task tended to learn less from positive feedback in the sequence task. This favours the likelihood of patients selecting early because they have a low threshold for making decisions, and that they make choices on the basis of relatively little evidence. PMID:20810252

  3. Defense mechanisms in patients with fibromyalgia and major depressive disorder

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tormod Landmark

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Background and objectives: Fibromyalgia (FM and depression has been suggested to share a common underlying etiology. Few studies have investigated the role of emotional regulation processes in FM compared to depressive disorders.The purpose of the current study was to explore the use of defense mechanisms in FM patients with and without comorbid lifetime depressive disorder (LDD, and to compare their use of defenses to healthy control subjects and patients with Major Depressive Disorder (MDD. Methods: A total of 91 participants were included (17 with FM and LDD, 25 with FM but not LDD, 24 with MDD, and 25 healthy controls. Depressive disorders were identified by using the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM Axis I disorders (SCID-I. All diagnosis of FM were confirmed to meet the American College of Rheumatology's criteria for FM. The Life Style Index (LSI was used to measure defense mechanisms. Results and Conclusions: Group comparisons indicated that MDD patients and FM patients with LDD made significantly more use of defenses than healthy controls, whereas FM patients without LDD made significantly less use of defenses than both MDD patients and FM patients with LDD, but did not differ from healthy controls. Follow up analyses indicated significant main effects for the defense mechanisms of regression, compensation and displacement. This study suggests that FM and depression do not share common risk factors in terms of restricted affects or avoidance of conflicted feelings.

  4. Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites collect visible and infrared cloud imagery as well as monitoring the atmospheric, oceanographic,...

  5. Defense Spending and the Economy

    Science.gov (United States)

    1983-12-07

    the first resolution. Our forecast projects continued growth in the economy and moderate inflation for one or possibly two years, despite federal...than provided in the resolution. Additional emphasis on defense would, of course, promote defense-intensive sectors of the economy at the expense of...others, but CBO believes the economy could accommodate such shifts without significant adverse effects on macroeconomic variables such as employment

  6. Theater Missile Defense Integration Issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    1993-06-01

    high endoatmospheric defense interceptor (HEDI) proposed t earlier. EADTB. Extended Air Defense Test Bed. A computer-based analysis center for...for attacking deeper elements of an aggressors’s ground forces. Known in NATO as Follow-on Force Attack ( FOFA ). JSTARS. Joint surveillance target...AFIA/INKS ATTN. INKS AFIS/INT ATTN: INT AIR hORCE CTR FOR STUDIES & ANALYSIS ATTN: AFSAA/SAKI 9 Dist-1 w^mmmm mmmm^-mmmemH

  7. Perceptual inference and autistic traits

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skewes, Joshua; Jegindø, Else-Marie Elmholdt; Gebauer, Line

    2015-01-01

    Autistic people are better at perceiving details. Major theories explain this in terms of bottom-up sensory mechanisms, or in terms of top-down cognitive biases. Recently, it has become possible to link these theories within a common framework. This framework assumes that perception is implicit...... neural inference, combining sensory evidence with prior perceptual knowledge. Within this framework, perceptual differences may occur because of enhanced precision in how sensory evidence is represented, or because sensory evidence is weighted much higher than prior perceptual knowledge...

  8. Logical inferences in discourse analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘峰廷

    2014-01-01

    Cohesion and coherence are two important characteristics of discourses. Halliday and Hasan have pointed out that cohesion is the basis of coherence and coherence is the premise of forming discourse. The commonly used cohesive devices are: preference, ellipsis, substitution, etc. Discourse coherence is mainly manifested in sentences and paragraphs. However, in real discourse analysis environment, traditional methods on cohesion and coherence are not enough. This article talks about the conception of discourse analysis at the beginning. Then, we list some of the traditional cohesive devices and its uses. Following that, we make corpus analysis. Finally, we explore and find a new device in textual analysis:discourse logical inferences.

  9. SICK: THE SPECTROSCOPIC INFERENCE CRANK

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Casey, Andrew R., E-mail: arc@ast.cam.ac.uk [Institute of Astronomy, University of Cambridge, Madingley Road, Cambdridge, CB3 0HA (United Kingdom)

    2016-03-15

    There exists an inordinate amount of spectral data in both public and private astronomical archives that remain severely under-utilized. The lack of reliable open-source tools for analyzing large volumes of spectra contributes to this situation, which is poised to worsen as large surveys successively release orders of magnitude more spectra. In this article I introduce sick, the spectroscopic inference crank, a flexible and fast Bayesian tool for inferring astrophysical parameters from spectra. sick is agnostic to the wavelength coverage, resolving power, or general data format, allowing any user to easily construct a generative model for their data, regardless of its source. sick can be used to provide a nearest-neighbor estimate of model parameters, a numerically optimized point estimate, or full Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling of the posterior probability distributions. This generality empowers any astronomer to capitalize on the plethora of published synthetic and observed spectra, and make precise inferences for a host of astrophysical (and nuisance) quantities. Model intensities can be reliably approximated from existing grids of synthetic or observed spectra using linear multi-dimensional interpolation, or a Cannon-based model. Additional phenomena that transform the data (e.g., redshift, rotational broadening, continuum, spectral resolution) are incorporated as free parameters and can be marginalized away. Outlier pixels (e.g., cosmic rays or poorly modeled regimes) can be treated with a Gaussian mixture model, and a noise model is included to account for systematically underestimated variance. Combining these phenomena into a scalar-justified, quantitative model permits precise inferences with credible uncertainties on noisy data. I describe the common model features, the implementation details, and the default behavior, which is balanced to be suitable for most astronomical applications. Using a forward model on low-resolution, high signal

  10. Universum Inference and Corpus Homogeneity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, Carl; Lynch, Gerard; Janssen, Jerom

    Universum Inference is re-interpreted for assessment of corpus homogeneity in computational stylometry. Recent stylometric research quantifies strength of characterization within dramatic works by assessing the homogeneity of corpora associated with dramatic personas. A methodological advance is suggested to mitigate the potential for the assessment of homogeneity to be achieved by chance. Baseline comparison analysis is constructed for contributions to debates by nonfictional participants: the corpus analyzed consists of transcripts of US Presidential and Vice-Presidential debates from the 2000 election cycle. The corpus is also analyzed in translation to Italian, Spanish and Portuguese. Adding randomized categories makes assessments of homogeneity more conservative.

  11. Inferring Network Structure from Cascades

    CERN Document Server

    Ghonge, Sushrut

    2016-01-01

    Many physical, biological and social phenomena can be described by cascades taking place on a network. Often, the activity can be empirically observed, but not the underlying network of interactions. In this paper we solve the dynamics of general cascade processes. We then offer three topological inversion methods to infer the structure of any directed network given a set of cascade arrival times. Our forward and inverse formulas hold for a very general class of models where the activation probability of a node is a generic function of its degree and the number of its active neighbors. We report high success rates for synthetic and real networks, for 5 different cascade models.

  12. Bayesian inference for OPC modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burbine, Andrew; Sturtevant, John; Fryer, David; Smith, Bruce W.

    2016-03-01

    The use of optical proximity correction (OPC) demands increasingly accurate models of the photolithographic process. Model building and inference techniques in the data science community have seen great strides in the past two decades which make better use of available information. This paper aims to demonstrate the predictive power of Bayesian inference as a method for parameter selection in lithographic models by quantifying the uncertainty associated with model inputs and wafer data. Specifically, the method combines the model builder's prior information about each modelling assumption with the maximization of each observation's likelihood as a Student's t-distributed random variable. Through the use of a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, a model's parameter space is explored to find the most credible parameter values. During parameter exploration, the parameters' posterior distributions are generated by applying Bayes' rule, using a likelihood function and the a priori knowledge supplied. The MCMC algorithm used, an affine invariant ensemble sampler (AIES), is implemented by initializing many walkers which semiindependently explore the space. The convergence of these walkers to global maxima of the likelihood volume determine the parameter values' highest density intervals (HDI) to reveal champion models. We show that this method of parameter selection provides insights into the data that traditional methods do not and outline continued experiments to vet the method.

  13. Dopamine, Affordance and Active Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friston, Karl J.; Shiner, Tamara; FitzGerald, Thomas; Galea, Joseph M.; Adams, Rick; Brown, Harriet; Dolan, Raymond J.; Moran, Rosalyn; Stephan, Klaas Enno; Bestmann, Sven

    2012-01-01

    The role of dopamine in behaviour and decision-making is often cast in terms of reinforcement learning and optimal decision theory. Here, we present an alternative view that frames the physiology of dopamine in terms of Bayes-optimal behaviour. In this account, dopamine controls the precision or salience of (external or internal) cues that engender action. In other words, dopamine balances bottom-up sensory information and top-down prior beliefs when making hierarchical inferences (predictions) about cues that have affordance. In this paper, we focus on the consequences of changing tonic levels of dopamine firing using simulations of cued sequential movements. Crucially, the predictions driving movements are based upon a hierarchical generative model that infers the context in which movements are made. This means that we can confuse agents by changing the context (order) in which cues are presented. These simulations provide a (Bayes-optimal) model of contextual uncertainty and set switching that can be quantified in terms of behavioural and electrophysiological responses. Furthermore, one can simulate dopaminergic lesions (by changing the precision of prediction errors) to produce pathological behaviours that are reminiscent of those seen in neurological disorders such as Parkinson's disease. We use these simulations to demonstrate how a single functional role for dopamine at the synaptic level can manifest in different ways at the behavioural level. PMID:22241972

  14. Dopamine, affordance and active inference.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karl J Friston

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The role of dopamine in behaviour and decision-making is often cast in terms of reinforcement learning and optimal decision theory. Here, we present an alternative view that frames the physiology of dopamine in terms of Bayes-optimal behaviour. In this account, dopamine controls the precision or salience of (external or internal cues that engender action. In other words, dopamine balances bottom-up sensory information and top-down prior beliefs when making hierarchical inferences (predictions about cues that have affordance. In this paper, we focus on the consequences of changing tonic levels of dopamine firing using simulations of cued sequential movements. Crucially, the predictions driving movements are based upon a hierarchical generative model that infers the context in which movements are made. This means that we can confuse agents by changing the context (order in which cues are presented. These simulations provide a (Bayes-optimal model of contextual uncertainty and set switching that can be quantified in terms of behavioural and electrophysiological responses. Furthermore, one can simulate dopaminergic lesions (by changing the precision of prediction errors to produce pathological behaviours that are reminiscent of those seen in neurological disorders such as Parkinson's disease. We use these simulations to demonstrate how a single functional role for dopamine at the synaptic level can manifest in different ways at the behavioural level.

  15. 76 FR 72391 - Defense Logistics Agency Revised Regulation 1000.22, Environmental Considerations in Defense...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-11-23

    ... Logistics Agency Revised Regulation 1000.22, Environmental Considerations in Defense Logistics Agency Actions AGENCY: Defense Logistics Agency, Department of Defense. ACTION: Revised Defense Logistics Agency Regulation (DLAR) 1000.22. SUMMARY: On May 18, 2011, the Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) published a Notice of...

  16. 76 FR 53119 - Defense Logistics Agency Revised Regulation 1000.22, Environmental Considerations in Defense...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-08-25

    ... Office of the Secretary Defense Logistics Agency Revised Regulation 1000.22, Environmental Considerations in Defense Logistics Agency Actions AGENCY: Defense Logistics Agency, Department of Defense. ACTION: Comment Addressed on Notice of Availability (NOA) of Revised Defense Logistics Agency Regulation (DLAR...

  17. Technical Soddi Defenses: The Trojan Horse Defense Revisited

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chad Steel

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In 2004, the Trojan horse defense was at a crossroads, with two child pornography cases where it was successfully employed in the United Kingdom, resulting in acquittals.  The original Trojan horse defense has now become part of the more general “technical SODDI” defense, which includes the possibility of unknown actors using unsecured Wi-Fi connections or having physical access to a computer to perform criminal acts.  In the past ten years, it has failed to be effective in the United States for criminal cases, with no published acquittals in cases where it was the primary defense.  In the criminal cases where it has been used as leverage in plea negotiations, there has been either poor forensics performed by the prosecution or political pressure to resolve a matter.  On the civil side, however, the defense has been wildly successful, effectively shutting down large John Doe copyright infringement litigation against non-commercial violators.  

  18. Inferring Protein Associations Using Protein Pulldown Assays

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sharp, Julia L.; Anderson, Kevin K.; Daly, Don S.; Auberry, Deanna L.; Borkowski, John J.; Cannon, William R.

    2007-02-01

    Background: One method to infer protein-protein associations is through a “bait-prey pulldown” assay using a protein affinity agent and an LC-MS (liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry)-based protein identification method. False positive and negative protein identifications are not uncommon, however, leading to incorrect inferences. Methods: A pulldown experiment generates a protein association matrix wherein each column represents a sample from one bait protein, each row represents one prey protein and each cell contains a presence/absence association indicator. Our method evaluates the presence/absence pattern across a prey protein (row) with a Likelihood Ratio Test (LRT), computing its p-value with simulated LRT test statistic distributions after a check with simulated binomial random variates disqualified the large sample 2 test. A pulldown experiment often involves hundreds of tests so we apply the false discovery rate method to control the false positive rate. Based on the p-value, each prey protein is assigned a category (specific association, non-specific association, or not associated) and appraised with respect to the pulldown experiment’s goal and design. The method is illustrated using a pulldown experiment investigating the protein complexes of Shewanella oneidensis MR-1. Results: The Monte Carlo simulated LRT p-values objectively reveal specific and ubiquitous prey, as well as potential systematic errors. The example analysis shows the results to be biologically sensible and more realistic than the ad hoc screening methods previously utilized. Conclusions: The method presented appears to be informative for screening for protein-protein associations.

  19. 78 FR 70025 - Information Collection Requirement; Defense Federal Acquisition Regulation Supplement...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-11-22

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE..., withhold, or withdraw purchasing system approval at the conclusion of a purchasing system review. Withdrawal of purchasing system approval would necessitate Government consent to individual...

  20. Lower complexity bounds for lifted inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jaeger, Manfred

    2015-01-01

    instances of the model. Numerous approaches for such “lifted inference” techniques have been proposed. While it has been demonstrated that these techniques will lead to significantly more efficient inference on some specific models, there are only very recent and still quite restricted results that show...... the feasibility of lifted inference on certain syntactically defined classes of models. Lower complexity bounds that imply some limitations for the feasibility of lifted inference on more expressive model classes were established earlier in Jaeger (2000; Jaeger, M. 2000. On the complexity of inference about...... that under the assumption that NETIME≠ETIME, there is no polynomial lifted inference algorithm for knowledge bases of weighted, quantifier-, and function-free formulas. Further strengthening earlier results, this is also shown to hold for approximate inference and for knowledge bases not containing...

  1. Spontaneous Trait Inferences on Social Media

    Science.gov (United States)

    Utz, Sonja

    2016-01-01

    The present research investigates whether spontaneous trait inferences occur under conditions characteristic of social media and networking sites: nonextreme, ostensibly self-generated content, simultaneous presentation of multiple cues, and self-paced browsing. We used an established measure of trait inferences (false recognition paradigm) and a direct assessment of impressions. Without being asked to do so, participants spontaneously formed impressions of people whose status updates they saw. Our results suggest that trait inferences occurred from nonextreme self-generated content, which is commonly found in social media updates (Experiment 1) and when nine status updates from different people were presented in parallel (Experiment 2). Although inferences did occur during free browsing, the results suggest that participants did not necessarily associate the traits with the corresponding status update authors (Experiment 3). Overall, the findings suggest that spontaneous trait inferences occur on social media. We discuss implications for online communication and research on spontaneous trait inferences. PMID:28123646

  2. Causal inference in public health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glass, Thomas A; Goodman, Steven N; Hernán, Miguel A; Samet, Jonathan M

    2013-01-01

    Causal inference has a central role in public health; the determination that an association is causal indicates the possibility for intervention. We review and comment on the long-used guidelines for interpreting evidence as supporting a causal association and contrast them with the potential outcomes framework that encourages thinking in terms of causes that are interventions. We argue that in public health this framework is more suitable, providing an estimate of an action's consequences rather than the less precise notion of a risk factor's causal effect. A variety of modern statistical methods adopt this approach. When an intervention cannot be specified, causal relations can still exist, but how to intervene to change the outcome will be unclear. In application, the often-complex structure of causal processes needs to be acknowledged and appropriate data collected to study them. These newer approaches need to be brought to bear on the increasingly complex public health challenges of our globalized world.

  3. Statistical inference for financial engineering

    CERN Document Server

    Taniguchi, Masanobu; Ogata, Hiroaki; Taniai, Hiroyuki

    2014-01-01

    This monograph provides the fundamentals of statistical inference for financial engineering and covers some selected methods suitable for analyzing financial time series data. In order to describe the actual financial data, various stochastic processes, e.g. non-Gaussian linear processes, non-linear processes, long-memory processes, locally stationary processes etc. are introduced and their optimal estimation is considered as well. This book also includes several statistical approaches, e.g., discriminant analysis, the empirical likelihood method, control variate method, quantile regression, realized volatility etc., which have been recently developed and are considered to be powerful tools for analyzing the financial data, establishing a new bridge between time series and financial engineering. This book is well suited as a professional reference book on finance, statistics and statistical financial engineering. Readers are expected to have an undergraduate-level knowledge of statistics.

  4. Polynomial Regressions and Nonsense Inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Polynomial specifications are widely used, not only in applied economics, but also in epidemiology, physics, political analysis and psychology, just to mention a few examples. In many cases, the data employed to estimate such specifications are time series that may exhibit stochastic nonstationary behavior. We extend Phillips’ results (Phillips, P. Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics. J. Econom. 1986, 33, 311–340. by proving that an inference drawn from polynomial specifications, under stochastic nonstationarity, is misleading unless the variables cointegrate. We use a generalized polynomial specification as a vehicle to study its asymptotic and finite-sample properties. Our results, therefore, lead to a call to be cautious whenever practitioners estimate polynomial regressions.

  5. Mod/Resc Parsimony Inference

    CERN Document Server

    Nor, Igor; Charlat, Sylvain; Engelstadter, Jan; Reuter, Max; Duron, Olivier; Sagot, Marie-France

    2010-01-01

    We address in this paper a new computational biology problem that aims at understanding a mechanism that could potentially be used to genetically manipulate natural insect populations infected by inherited, intra-cellular parasitic bacteria. In this problem, that we denote by \\textsc{Mod/Resc Parsimony Inference}, we are given a boolean matrix and the goal is to find two other boolean matrices with a minimum number of columns such that an appropriately defined operation on these matrices gives back the input. We show that this is formally equivalent to the \\textsc{Bipartite Biclique Edge Cover} problem and derive some complexity results for our problem using this equivalence. We provide a new, fixed-parameter tractability approach for solving both that slightly improves upon a previously published algorithm for the \\textsc{Bipartite Biclique Edge Cover}. Finally, we present experimental results where we applied some of our techniques to a real-life data set.

  6. Bayesian Inference with Optimal Maps

    CERN Document Server

    Moselhy, Tarek A El

    2011-01-01

    We present a new approach to Bayesian inference that entirely avoids Markov chain simulation, by constructing a map that pushes forward the prior measure to the posterior measure. Existence and uniqueness of a suitable measure-preserving map is established by formulating the problem in the context of optimal transport theory. We discuss various means of explicitly parameterizing the map and computing it efficiently through solution of an optimization problem, exploiting gradient information from the forward model when possible. The resulting algorithm overcomes many of the computational bottlenecks associated with Markov chain Monte Carlo. Advantages of a map-based representation of the posterior include analytical expressions for posterior moments and the ability to generate arbitrary numbers of independent posterior samples without additional likelihood evaluations or forward solves. The optimization approach also provides clear convergence criteria for posterior approximation and facilitates model selectio...

  7. Relevance-driven Pragmatic Inferences

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王瑞彪

    2013-01-01

    Relevance theory, an inferential approach to pragmatics, claims that the hearer is expected to pick out the input of op-timal relevance from a mass of alternative inputs produced by the speaker in order to interpret the speaker ’s intentions. The de-gree of the relevance of an input can be assessed in terms of cognitive effects and the processing effort. The input of optimal rele-vance is the one yielding the greatest positive cognitive effect and requiring the least processing effort. This paper attempts to as-sess the degrees of the relevance of a mass of alternative inputs produced by an imaginary speaker from the perspective of her cor-responding hearer in terms of cognitive effects and the processing effort with a view to justifying the feasibility of the principle of relevance in pragmatic inferences.

  8. Compiling Relational Bayesian Networks for Exact Inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jaeger, Manfred; Chavira, Mark; Darwiche, Adnan

    2004-01-01

    We describe a system for exact inference with relational Bayesian networks as defined in the publicly available \\primula\\ tool. The system is based on compiling propositional instances of relational Bayesian networks into arithmetic circuits and then performing online inference by evaluating...... and differentiating these circuits in time linear in their size. We report on experimental results showing the successful compilation, and efficient inference, on relational Bayesian networks whose {\\primula}--generated propositional instances have thousands of variables, and whose jointrees have clusters...

  9. Definitive Consensus for Distributed Data Inference

    OpenAIRE

    2011-01-01

    Inference from data is of key importance in many applications of informatics. The current trend in performing such a task of inference from data is to utilise machine learning algorithms. Moreover, in many applications that it is either required or is preferable to infer from the data in a distributed manner. Many practical difficulties arise from the fact that in many distributed applications we avert from transferring data or parts of it due to cost...

  10. Constraint Processing in Lifted Probabilistic Inference

    CERN Document Server

    Kisynski, Jacek

    2012-01-01

    First-order probabilistic models combine representational power of first-order logic with graphical models. There is an ongoing effort to design lifted inference algorithms for first-order probabilistic models. We analyze lifted inference from the perspective of constraint processing and, through this viewpoint, we analyze and compare existing approaches and expose their advantages and limitations. Our theoretical results show that the wrong choice of constraint processing method can lead to exponential increase in computational complexity. Our empirical tests confirm the importance of constraint processing in lifted inference. This is the first theoretical and empirical study of constraint processing in lifted inference.

  11. Inference Attacks and Control on Database Structures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhamed Turkanovic

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Today’s databases store information with sensitivity levels that range from public to highly sensitive, hence ensuring confidentiality can be highly important, but also requires costly control. This paper focuses on the inference problem on different database structures. It presents possible treats on privacy with relation to the inference, and control methods for mitigating these treats. The paper shows that using only access control, without any inference control is inadequate, since these models are unable to protect against indirect data access. Furthermore, it covers new inference problems which rise from the dimensions of new technologies like XML, semantics, etc.

  12. State Sampling Dependence of Hopfield Network Inference

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    黄海平

    2012-01-01

    The fully connected Hopfield network is inferred based on observed magnetizations and pairwise correlations. We present the system in the glassy phase with low temperature and high memory load. We find that the inference error is very sensitive to the form of state sampling. When a single state is sampled to compute magnetizations and correlations, the inference error is almost indistinguishable irrespective of the sampled state. However, the error can be greatly reduced if the data is collected with state transitions. Our result holds for different disorder samples and accounts for the previously observed large fluctuations of inference error at low temperatures.

  13. The Inflammasome in Host Defense

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gang Chen

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Nod-like receptors have emerged as an important family of sensors in host defense. These receptors are expressed in macrophages, dendritic cells and monocytes and play an important role in microbial immunity. Some Nod-like receptors form the inflammasome, a protein complex that activates caspase-1 in response to several stimuli. Caspase-1 activation leads to processing and secretion of pro-inflammatory cytokines such as interleukin (IL-1β and IL-18. Here, we discuss recent advances in the inflammasome field with an emphasis on host defense. We also compare differential requirements for inflammasome activation in dendritic cells, macrophages and monocytes.

  14. Do defense mechanisms vary according to the psychiatric disorder?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Blaya Carolina

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to evaluate the defense mechanisms used by depressive and anxious patients without comorbidities compared to those used by controls and to determine whether these patterns differ between diagnoses. METHOD: The sample was composed of 167 psychiatric patients and 36 controls that were evaluated using the Defense Style Questionnaire 40. All subjects were evaluated through a clinical interview, and each evaluation was confirmed through the application of the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview, a structured psychiatric interview. We used ANOVA and discriminant analysis to assess differences between groups. RESULTS: Neurotic defense mechanisms discriminated controls from all patients except those with social anxiety. Immature defense mechanisms differentiated controls from all patients, as well as distinguished depressive patients from panic disorder and obsessive disorder patients. The discriminant analysis indicated that depressive patients are characterized by projection, panic disorder patients by sublimation and obsessive-compulsive patients by acting out. CONCLUSIONS: Depressive and anxious patients differ from other individuals in their use of defense mechanisms, and each diagnosis has a particular pattern. These findings could lead to the development of specific psychotherapeutic interventions.

  15. Towards Confirming Neural Circuit Inference from Population Calcium Imaging. NIPS Workshop on Connectivity Inference in Neuroimaging

    OpenAIRE

    NeuroData; Mishchenko, Y.; AM, Packer; TA, Machado; Yuste, R.; Paninski, L

    2015-01-01

    Vogelstein JT, Mishchenko Y, Packer AM, Machado TA, Yuste R, Paninski L. Towards Confirming Neural Circuit Inference from Population Calcium Imaging. NIPS Workshop on Connectivity Inference in Neuroimaging, 2009

  16. Protein inference: A protein quantification perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Zengyou; Huang, Ting; Liu, Xiaoqing; Zhu, Peijun; Teng, Ben; Deng, Shengchun

    2016-08-01

    In mass spectrometry-based shotgun proteomics, protein quantification and protein identification are two major computational problems. To quantify the protein abundance, a list of proteins must be firstly inferred from the raw data. Then the relative or absolute protein abundance is estimated with quantification methods, such as spectral counting. Until now, most researchers have been dealing with these two processes separately. In fact, the protein inference problem can be regarded as a special protein quantification problem in the sense that truly present proteins are those proteins whose abundance values are not zero. Some recent published papers have conceptually discussed this possibility. However, there is still a lack of rigorous experimental studies to test this hypothesis. In this paper, we investigate the feasibility of using protein quantification methods to solve the protein inference problem. Protein inference methods aim to determine whether each candidate protein is present in the sample or not. Protein quantification methods estimate the abundance value of each inferred protein. Naturally, the abundance value of an absent protein should be zero. Thus, we argue that the protein inference problem can be viewed as a special protein quantification problem in which one protein is considered to be present if its abundance is not zero. Based on this idea, our paper tries to use three simple protein quantification methods to solve the protein inference problem effectively. The experimental results on six data sets show that these three methods are competitive with previous protein inference algorithms. This demonstrates that it is plausible to model the protein inference problem as a special protein quantification task, which opens the door of devising more effective protein inference algorithms from a quantification perspective. The source codes of our methods are available at: http://code.google.com/p/protein-inference/.

  17. Reconciling taxonomy and phylogenetic inference: formalism and algorithms for describing discord and inferring taxonomic roots

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matsen Frederick A

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Although taxonomy is often used informally to evaluate the results of phylogenetic inference and the root of phylogenetic trees, algorithmic methods to do so are lacking. Results In this paper we formalize these procedures and develop algorithms to solve the relevant problems. In particular, we introduce a new algorithm that solves a "subcoloring" problem to express the difference between a taxonomy and a phylogeny at a given rank. This algorithm improves upon the current best algorithm in terms of asymptotic complexity for the parameter regime of interest; we also describe a branch-and-bound algorithm that saves orders of magnitude in computation on real data sets. We also develop a formalism and an algorithm for rooting phylogenetic trees according to a taxonomy. Conclusions The algorithms in this paper, and the associated freely-available software, will help biologists better use and understand taxonomically labeled phylogenetic trees.

  18. Defense Acquisition Policy and Defense Industrial Base Reinforcement Strategy - Enhancing the International Competitiveness of the Korean National Defense Industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-04-23

    Korea Defense Industry Association (KDIA). (2007). Annual management review of Korean Defense Industry. Seoul: Author. Lee, D.O. (2000...COMPETITIVENESS OF THE KOREAN NATIONAL DEFENSE INDUSTRY Published: 23 April 2008 by Dr. Dae Ok Lee 5th Annual Acquisition Research Symposium of the...International Competitiveness of the Korean National Defense Industry 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d

  19. Study of General health, resiliency, and defense mechanisms in patients with migraine headache

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alireza Aghayusefi

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: Migraine is a neurological disease that the etiology, several factors affect its onset or its exacerbation. One of the factors affecting disease is psychological factors such as defense mechanisms, resiliency, and general health. This study assessed the relationship between general health, resiliency, and general defense mechanisms, and also predicts the general health of people with migraine headaches that have a high resiliency and use mature defense mechanisms. Material and Methods: 50 women with migraine headache in the city of Bushehr using defense mechanisms, resiliency, and general health questionnaires were studied. For statistical analysis, Pearson correlation and multiple regression tests were used by SPSS 17 software. Results: The results showed that most of the defense mechanisms of migraine sufferers are Immature and Neuroticism. There is significant negative correlation between the deterioration of general health and resiliency as well as the mature defense mechanism (p=0/003, and also there is a significant positive correlation between this deterioration with neuroticism (p=0/040 and immature defense mechanisms (p=0/041. On the other hand there is significant negative correlation between resiliencies with immature (p=0/009 and neuroticism defense mechanisms (p=0/04, and also with mature defense mechanism has a significant positive correlation (p=0/003. Also, as more people use the mature defense mechanism, their deterioration of general health will be reduced, but this relationship will be stronger with the presence of resiliency. So migraine people use the mature defense mechanisms with high resiliency will have more favorable general health (less deterioration of general health. Conclusion: This study showed that migraine patients use the mature defense mechanisms with high resiliency will have more favorable general health (less deterioration of general health.

  20. Defense Acquisition Performance Assessment Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-01-01

    Incorporated – “Changing the System” HeLLeR , TRiCiA A., Deputy Director of Congressional Support, Technical and Analytical Support, USAF A-Team...Interview Recorder” HeLLieR, RiCHARD, Director of Air Force Programs, United Technologies – “Joint Stars System” HeRMAN , DR. ROBeRT, Member, Defense

  1. Defense Financial and Investment Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    1985-06-01

    to direct its attention to problems such as profit policy and the management and investment practices of defense contractors. Prorit Study 󈨖 In 1982...I \\-L 10 NO ADJUSTMENT 46- 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 Sources: Touche Ross; Prorit 󈨐 V-34

  2. In Defense of Darwin's Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naylor, Bruce G.; Handford, Paul

    1985-01-01

    Examines issues regarding the defensibility and utility of natural selection as a scientific theory, focusing on the process of population change over time. Topics considered include criticisms of Darwinian theory, tautology and the meaning of fitness, the ability of theories to predict and explain, and the sufficiency of natural selection. (DH)

  3. Systemic defense signaling in tomato

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Changbao; SUN Jiaqiang; JIANG Hongling; WU Xiaoyan; LI Chuanyou

    2005-01-01

    The wound-inducible expression of proteinase inhibitors (PIs) genes in tomato provides a powerful model system to elucidate the signal transduction pathway of sys- temic defense response. An increasing body of evidence indi- cates that systemin and jasmonic acid (JA) work in the same signaling pathway to activate the expression of PIs and other defense-related genes. However, little is known about how systemin and JA interact to regulate cell to cell communica- tion over long distances. Genetic analysis of the systemin/JA signaling pathway in tomato plants provides a unique opportunity to dissect the mechanism by which peptide and oxylipin signals interact to coordinate systemic expression of defense-related genes. Previously, it has been proposed that systemin is the long-distance mobile signal for systemic expression of defense related genes. However, recent genetic approach provided new evidence that jasmonic acid, rather than systemin, functions as the systemic wound signal, and that the peptide systemin works to regulate the biosynthesis of JA.

  4. Soviet debate on missile defense

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parrott, B.

    1987-04-01

    Although the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) is meant to cope with the danger of a Soviet nuclear attack, the recent US debate over SDI has paid surprisingly little attention to Soviet views of ballistic missile defense. Despite the existence of a substantial body of pertinent scholarship, the debate has failed to take adequate account of major changes in Soviet ballistic missile defense policy since the mid-1960s. It has also neglected the links between current Soviet military policy and broader Soviet political and economic choices. The Soviets regard SDI not as a novel undertaking to reduce the risks of nuclear war but as an extension of the geopolitical competition between the superpowers. This competition has been dominated in the 1980s, in the Soviet view, by sharply increased US assertiveness and the decline of detente. Viewing SDI as a manifestation of these general trends, Soviet decision makers find the prospect of an unregulated race in ballistic missile defenses and military space technologies deeply unsettling. The deterioration of superpower relations has raised serious doubts in Moscow about the wisdom of Soviet external policy during the 1970s and has provoked sharp internal differences over policy toward the US. Already highly suspicious of the Reagan administration, the elite is united by a general conviction that SDI is an American gambit that may ultimately undercut past Soviet strategic gains and pose a grave new threat to Soviet security. 14 references.

  5. What Happens After the Defense?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Feldtmann, Birgit

    2015-01-01

    who has attempted to attack the master’s vessel and whose distress is the direct result of lawful self-defense by PCASP? This is the question at the heart of this article, which argues that there are certain post incident obligations and that it is crucial to address these obligations at the flag...

  6. Multidimensional Perfectionism and Ego Defenses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickinson, Wendy L.; Ashby, Jeffrey S.

    2005-01-01

    This study examined the relationship between multidimensional perfectionism and ego defense style among 130 college students. Cluster analysis results facilitated the identification of groups of adaptive perfectionists, maladaptive perfectionists, and non-perfectionists. The researchers found that identified maladaptive perfectionists used…

  7. Multidimensional Perfectionism and Ego Defenses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickinson, Wendy L.; Ashby, Jeffrey S.

    2005-01-01

    This study examined the relationship between multidimensional perfectionism and ego defense style among 130 college students. Cluster analysis results facilitated the identification of groups of adaptive perfectionists, maladaptive perfectionists, and non-perfectionists. The researchers found that identified maladaptive perfectionists used…

  8. Analytics for Cyber Network Defense

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Plantenga, Todd. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Kolda, Tamara Gibson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2011-06-01

    This report provides a brief survey of analytics tools considered relevant to cyber network defense (CND). Ideas and tools come from elds such as statistics, data mining, and knowledge discovery. Some analytics are considered standard mathematical or statistical techniques, while others re ect current research directions. In all cases the report attempts to explain the relevance to CND with brief examples.

  9. Inflation Adjustments for Defense Acquisition

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-10-01

    Airframe Total airframe contractor furnished equipment ( CFE ) Total airframe CFE 9 entries (forward fuselage, center fuselage, wing, empennage...etc.) Avionics Total electronics CFE and government- furnished equipment (GFE) Total avionics 16 entries (radar, integrated processor...Relationship CFE Contractor Furnished Equipment CNI Communication, Navigation, Identification DoD Department of Defense FCCM Facilities Capital Cost

  10. Smart and easy: Co-occurring activation of spontaneous trait inferences and spontaneous situational inferences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ham, J.R.C.; Vonk, R.

    2003-01-01

    Social perceivers have been shown to draw spontaneous trait inferences (STI's) about the behavior of an actor as well as spontaneous situational inferences (SSI's) about the situation the actor is in. In two studies, we examined inferences about behaviors that allow for both an STI and an SSI. In

  11. Civil Defense, U. S. A.: A Programmed Orientation to Civil Defense. Unit 5. Governmental Responsibilities for Civil Defense.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Defense Civil Preparedness Agency (DOD), Battle Creek, MI.

    A description of the laws and orders that provide necessary legal authorization for civil defense activities is provided. In addition, an outline of the responsibilities of all governments and the role of the private sector in civil defense is presented. Topics discussed include: (1) Legal authority for civil defense, (2) Civil defense…

  12. Civil Defense, U. S. A.: A Programmed Orientation to Civil Defense. Unit 1. Civil Defense - Protection Against What?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Defense Civil Preparedness Agency (DOD), Battle Creek, MI.

    An explanation of the need for civil defense in nuclear and natural disasters is presented. A brief historical background of civil defense is given. Major topics include: (1) Types of disasters, (2) Probable objectives of a nuclear attack on the United States, (3) The major defensive measures against a nuclear attack, (4) Some reasons for low…

  13. Validating Inductive Hypotheses by Mode Inference

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王志坚

    1993-01-01

    Sme criteria based on mode inference for validating inductive hypotheses are presented in this paper.Mode inference is caried out mechanically,thus such kind of validation can result in low overhead in consistency check and high efficiency in performance.

  14. Causal inference in economics and marketing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varian, Hal R

    2016-07-05

    This is an elementary introduction to causal inference in economics written for readers familiar with machine learning methods. The critical step in any causal analysis is estimating the counterfactual-a prediction of what would have happened in the absence of the treatment. The powerful techniques used in machine learning may be useful for developing better estimates of the counterfactual, potentially improving causal inference.

  15. Local and Global Thinking in Statistical Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pratt, Dave; Johnston-Wilder, Peter; Ainley, Janet; Mason, John

    2008-01-01

    In this reflective paper, we explore students' local and global thinking about informal statistical inference through our observations of 10- to 11-year-olds, challenged to infer the unknown configuration of a virtual die, but able to use the die to generate as much data as they felt necessary. We report how they tended to focus on local changes…

  16. The Reasoning behind Informal Statistical Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makar, Katie; Bakker, Arthur; Ben-Zvi, Dani

    2011-01-01

    Informal statistical inference (ISI) has been a frequent focus of recent research in statistics education. Considering the role that context plays in developing ISI calls into question the need to be more explicit about the reasoning that underpins ISI. This paper uses educational literature on informal statistical inference and philosophical…

  17. Forward and backward inference in spatial cognition.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Will D Penny

    Full Text Available This paper shows that the various computations underlying spatial cognition can be implemented using statistical inference in a single probabilistic model. Inference is implemented using a common set of 'lower-level' computations involving forward and backward inference over time. For example, to estimate where you are in a known environment, forward inference is used to optimally combine location estimates from path integration with those from sensory input. To decide which way to turn to reach a goal, forward inference is used to compute the likelihood of reaching that goal under each option. To work out which environment you are in, forward inference is used to compute the likelihood of sensory observations under the different hypotheses. For reaching sensory goals that require a chaining together of decisions, forward inference can be used to compute a state trajectory that will lead to that goal, and backward inference to refine the route and estimate control signals that produce the required trajectory. We propose that these computations are reflected in recent findings of pattern replay in the mammalian brain. Specifically, that theta sequences reflect decision making, theta flickering reflects model selection, and remote replay reflects route and motor planning. We also propose a mapping of the above computational processes onto lateral and medial entorhinal cortex and hippocampus.

  18. Fiducial inference - A Neyman-Pearson interpretation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Salome, D; VonderLinden, W; Dose,; Fischer, R; Preuss, R

    1999-01-01

    Fisher's fiducial argument is a tool for deriving inferences in the form of a probability distribution on the parameter space, not based on Bayes's Theorem. Lindley established that in exceptional situations fiducial inferences coincide with posterior distributions; in the other situations fiducial

  19. Multiple sequence alignment accuracy and phylogenetic inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogden, T Heath; Rosenberg, Michael S

    2006-04-01

    Phylogenies are often thought to be more dependent upon the specifics of the sequence alignment rather than on the method of reconstruction. Simulation of sequences containing insertion and deletion events was performed in order to determine the role that alignment accuracy plays during phylogenetic inference. Data sets were simulated for pectinate, balanced, and random tree shapes under different conditions (ultrametric equal branch length, ultrametric random branch length, nonultrametric random branch length). Comparisons between hypothesized alignments and true alignments enabled determination of two measures of alignment accuracy, that of the total data set and that of individual branches. In general, our results indicate that as alignment error increases, topological accuracy decreases. This trend was much more pronounced for data sets derived from more pectinate topologies. In contrast, for balanced, ultrametric, equal branch length tree shapes, alignment inaccuracy had little average effect on tree reconstruction. These conclusions are based on average trends of many analyses under different conditions, and any one specific analysis, independent of the alignment accuracy, may recover very accurate or inaccurate topologies. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian, in general, outperformed neighbor joining and maximum parsimony in terms of tree reconstruction accuracy. Results also indicated that as the length of the branch and of the neighboring branches increase, alignment accuracy decreases, and the length of the neighboring branches is the major factor in topological accuracy. Thus, multiple-sequence alignment can be an important factor in downstream effects on topological reconstruction.

  20. Active Inference: A Process Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friston, Karl; FitzGerald, Thomas; Rigoli, Francesco; Schwartenbeck, Philipp; Pezzulo, Giovanni

    2017-01-01

    This article describes a process theory based on active inference and belief propagation. Starting from the premise that all neuronal processing (and action selection) can be explained by maximizing Bayesian model evidence-or minimizing variational free energy-we ask whether neuronal responses can be described as a gradient descent on variational free energy. Using a standard (Markov decision process) generative model, we derive the neuronal dynamics implicit in this description and reproduce a remarkable range of well-characterized neuronal phenomena. These include repetition suppression, mismatch negativity, violation responses, place-cell activity, phase precession, theta sequences, theta-gamma coupling, evidence accumulation, race-to-bound dynamics, and transfer of dopamine responses. Furthermore, the (approximately Bayes' optimal) behavior prescribed by these dynamics has a degree of face validity, providing a formal explanation for reward seeking, context learning, and epistemic foraging. Technically, the fact that a gradient descent appears to be a valid description of neuronal activity means that variational free energy is a Lyapunov function for neuronal dynamics, which therefore conform to Hamilton's principle of least action.

  1. Department of Defense PERSEREC (DOD PERSEREC)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Social Security Administration — The purpose of this agreement is for SSA to verify SSN information for Defense Manpower Data Center (DMDC) of the Department of Defense. DMDC will use the SSA data...

  2. Bayesian Inference Methods for Sparse Channel Estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Niels Lovmand

    2013-01-01

    This thesis deals with sparse Bayesian learning (SBL) with application to radio channel estimation. As opposed to the classical approach for sparse signal representation, we focus on the problem of inferring complex signals. Our investigations within SBL constitute the basis for the development...... of Bayesian inference algorithms for sparse channel estimation. Sparse inference methods aim at finding the sparse representation of a signal given in some overcomplete dictionary of basis vectors. Within this context, one of our main contributions to the field of SBL is a hierarchical representation...... analysis of the complex prior representation, where we show that the ability to induce sparse estimates of a given prior heavily depends on the inference method used and, interestingly, whether real or complex variables are inferred. We also show that the Bayesian estimators derived from the proposed...

  3. EI: A Program for Ecological Inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gary King

    2004-09-01

    Full Text Available The program EI provides a method of inferring individual behavior from aggregate data. It implements the statistical procedures, diagnostics, and graphics from the book A Solution to the Ecological Inference Problem: Reconstructing Individual Behavior from Aggregate Data (King 1997. Ecological inference, as traditionally defined, is the process of using aggregate (i.e., "ecological" data to infer discrete individual-level relationships of interest when individual-level data are not available. Ecological inferences are required in political science research when individual-level surveys are unavailable (e.g., local or comparative electoral politics, unreliable (racial politics, insufficient (political geography, or infeasible (political history. They are also required in numerous areas of ma jor significance in public policy (e.g., for applying the Voting Rights Act and other academic disciplines ranging from epidemiology and marketing to sociology and quantitative history.

  4. On the criticality of inferred models

    CERN Document Server

    Mastromatteo, Iacopo

    2011-01-01

    Advanced inference techniques allow one to reconstruct the pattern of interaction from high dimensional data sets. We focus here on the statistical properties of inferred models and argue that inference procedures are likely to yield models which are close to a phase transition. On one side, we show that the reparameterization invariant metrics in the space of probability distributions of these models (the Fisher Information) is directly related to the model's susceptibility. As a result, distinguishable models tend to accumulate close to critical points, where the susceptibility diverges in infinite systems. On the other, this region is the one where the estimate of inferred parameters is most stable. In order to illustrate these points, we discuss inference of interacting point processes with application to financial data and show that sensible choices of observation time-scales naturally yield models which are close to criticality.

  5. Inferring gene regression networks with model trees

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aguilar-Ruiz Jesus S

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Novel strategies are required in order to handle the huge amount of data produced by microarray technologies. To infer gene regulatory networks, the first step is to find direct regulatory relationships between genes building the so-called gene co-expression networks. They are typically generated using correlation statistics as pairwise similarity measures. Correlation-based methods are very useful in order to determine whether two genes have a strong global similarity but do not detect local similarities. Results We propose model trees as a method to identify gene interaction networks. While correlation-based methods analyze each pair of genes, in our approach we generate a single regression tree for each gene from the remaining genes. Finally, a graph from all the relationships among output and input genes is built taking into account whether the pair of genes is statistically significant. For this reason we apply a statistical procedure to control the false discovery rate. The performance of our approach, named REGNET, is experimentally tested on two well-known data sets: Saccharomyces Cerevisiae and E.coli data set. First, the biological coherence of the results are tested. Second the E.coli transcriptional network (in the Regulon database is used as control to compare the results to that of a correlation-based method. This experiment shows that REGNET performs more accurately at detecting true gene associations than the Pearson and Spearman zeroth and first-order correlation-based methods. Conclusions REGNET generates gene association networks from gene expression data, and differs from correlation-based methods in that the relationship between one gene and others is calculated simultaneously. Model trees are very useful techniques to estimate the numerical values for the target genes by linear regression functions. They are very often more precise than linear regression models because they can add just different linear

  6. Nuclear Forensic Inferences Using Iterative Multidimensional Statistics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robel, M; Kristo, M J; Heller, M A

    2009-06-09

    Nuclear forensics involves the analysis of interdicted nuclear material for specific material characteristics (referred to as 'signatures') that imply specific geographical locations, production processes, culprit intentions, etc. Predictive signatures rely on expert knowledge of physics, chemistry, and engineering to develop inferences from these material characteristics. Comparative signatures, on the other hand, rely on comparison of the material characteristics of the interdicted sample (the 'questioned sample' in FBI parlance) with those of a set of known samples. In the ideal case, the set of known samples would be a comprehensive nuclear forensics database, a database which does not currently exist. In fact, our ability to analyze interdicted samples and produce an extensive list of precise materials characteristics far exceeds our ability to interpret the results. Therefore, as we seek to develop the extensive databases necessary for nuclear forensics, we must also develop the methods necessary to produce the necessary inferences from comparison of our analytical results with these large, multidimensional sets of data. In the work reported here, we used a large, multidimensional dataset of results from quality control analyses of uranium ore concentrate (UOC, sometimes called 'yellowcake'). We have found that traditional multidimensional techniques, such as principal components analysis (PCA), are especially useful for understanding such datasets and drawing relevant conclusions. In particular, we have developed an iterative partial least squares-discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) procedure that has proven especially adept at identifying the production location of unknown UOC samples. By removing classes which fell far outside the initial decision boundary, and then rebuilding the PLS-DA model, we have consistently produced better and more definitive attributions than with a single pass classification approach. Performance of the

  7. 22 CFR 120.6 - Defense article.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Defense article. 120.6 Section 120.6 Foreign Relations DEPARTMENT OF STATE INTERNATIONAL TRAFFIC IN ARMS REGULATIONS PURPOSE AND DEFINITIONS § 120.6 Defense article. Defense article means any item or technical data designated in § 121.1 of this...

  8. 22 CFR 120.9 - Defense service.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... Defense service. (a) Defense service means: (1) The furnishing of assistance (including training) to foreign persons, whether in the United States or abroad in the design, development, engineering... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Defense service. 120.9 Section 120.9...

  9. Defense Procurement Strategy for a Globalized Industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-11-02

    QDR,” DefenseNews, 8 November 2004, p. 4. 3 Vago Muradain, “Finalizing Transformation,” DefenseNews, 8 November 2004, p. 34. 4 Hugo Posey and Ben...Interavia, Summer 2004, 34-36. Munton, Bob, and Brinley Salzmann. “U.K.’s Growing Contols.” DefenseNews, 25 October 2004, 96. Muradain, Vago

  10. Defense Science Board Task Force Report on Cyber Defense Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-09-01

    posturethrough the CCMDs with measurement feedback to the leadership. The DoD CIO should establishmetrics for this assessment. Include Cyber Preparedness in...DoD should evaluate the effectiveness of the resulting defense posturethrough the CCMDs with measurement feedback to the leadership. The DoD CIO...USCYBERCOM Welcome Maj Keffer, USCYBERCOM Chief of Staff Cyber Portfolio Management Decisions Mr. Terry Carter, Deputy Director, Capabilities and Resource

  11. Causal inference in obesity research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franks, P W; Atabaki-Pasdar, N

    2017-03-01

    Obesity is a risk factor for a plethora of severe morbidities and premature death. Most supporting evidence comes from observational studies that are prone to chance, bias and confounding. Even data on the protective effects of weight loss from randomized controlled trials will be susceptible to confounding and bias if treatment assignment cannot be masked, which is usually the case with lifestyle and surgical interventions. Thus, whilst obesity is widely considered the major modifiable risk factor for many chronic diseases, its causes and consequences are often difficult to determine. Addressing this is important, as the prevention and treatment of any disease requires that interventions focus on causal risk factors. Disease prediction, although not dependent on knowing the causes, is nevertheless enhanced by such knowledge. Here, we provide an overview of some of the barriers to causal inference in obesity research and discuss analytical approaches, such as Mendelian randomization, that can help to overcome these obstacles. In a systematic review of the literature in this field, we found: (i) probable causal relationships between adiposity and bone health/disease, cancers (colorectal, lung and kidney cancers), cardiometabolic traits (blood pressure, fasting insulin, inflammatory markers and lipids), uric acid concentrations, coronary heart disease and venous thrombosis (in the presence of pulmonary embolism), (ii) possible causal relationships between adiposity and gray matter volume, depression and common mental disorders, oesophageal cancer, macroalbuminuria, end-stage renal disease, diabetic kidney disease, nuclear cataract and gall stone disease, and (iii) no evidence for causal relationships between adiposity and Alzheimer's disease, pancreatic cancer, venous thrombosis (in the absence of pulmonary embolism), liver function and periodontitis.

  12. THE PROGNOSIS OF RUSSIAN DEFENSE INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENT IMPLEMENTED THROUGH REGRESSION ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L.M. Kapustina

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available The article illustrates the results of investigation the major internal and external factors which influence the development of the defense industry, as well as the results of regression analysis which quantitatively displays the factorial contribution in the growth rate of Russian defense industry. On the basis of calculated regression dependences the authors fulfilled the medium-term prognosis of defense industry. Optimistic and inertial versions of defense product growth rate for the period up to 2009 are based on scenario conditions in Russian economy worked out by the Ministry of economy and development. In conclusion authors point out which factors and conditions have the largest impact on successful and stable operation of Russian defense industry.

  13. Linguistic Markers of Inference Generation While Reading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clinton, Virginia; Carlson, Sarah E; Seipel, Ben

    2016-06-01

    Words can be informative linguistic markers of psychological constructs. The purpose of this study is to examine associations between word use and the process of making meaningful connections to a text while reading (i.e., inference generation). To achieve this purpose, think-aloud data from third-fifth grade students ([Formula: see text]) reading narrative texts were hand-coded for inferences. These data were also processed with a computer text analysis tool, Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count, for percentages of word use in the following categories: cognitive mechanism words, nonfluencies, and nine types of function words. Findings indicate that cognitive mechanisms were an independent, positive predictor of connections to background knowledge (i.e., elaborative inference generation) and nonfluencies were an independent, negative predictor of connections within the text (i.e., bridging inference generation). Function words did not provide unique variance towards predicting inference generation. These findings are discussed in the context of a cognitive reflection model and the differences between bridging and elaborative inference generation. In addition, potential practical implications for intelligent tutoring systems and computer-based methods of inference identification are presented.

  14. Homeland Defense: DOD Needs to Address Gaps in Homeland Defense and Civil Support Guidance

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-10-01

    tornado, storm, high water , wind-driven water , tidal wave, tsunami, earthquake, volcanic eruption , landslide, mudslide, snowstorm, or drought), or...Secretary of Defense and the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy on homeland defense and civil support matters, among other things. The...Assistant Secretary of Defense for Global Strategic Affairs is the principal advisor to the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy and the Secretary

  15. Compiling Relational Bayesian Networks for Exact Inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jaeger, Manfred; Darwiche, Adnan; Chavira, Mark

    2006-01-01

    We describe in this paper a system for exact inference with relational Bayesian networks as defined in the publicly available PRIMULA tool. The system is based on compiling propositional instances of relational Bayesian networks into arithmetic circuits and then performing online inference...... by evaluating and differentiating these circuits in time linear in their size. We report on experimental results showing successful compilation and efficient inference on relational Bayesian networks, whose PRIMULA--generated propositional instances have thousands of variables, and whose jointrees have clusters...

  16. Inference and the introductory statistics course

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfannkuch, Maxine; Regan, Matt; Wild, Chris; Budgett, Stephanie; Forbes, Sharleen; Harraway, John; Parsonage, Ross

    2011-10-01

    This article sets out some of the rationale and arguments for making major changes to the teaching and learning of statistical inference in introductory courses at our universities by changing from a norm-based, mathematical approach to more conceptually accessible computer-based approaches. The core problem of the inferential argument with its hypothetical probabilistic reasoning process is examined in some depth. We argue that the revolution in the teaching of inference must begin. We also discuss some perplexing issues, problematic areas and some new insights into language conundrums associated with introducing the logic of inference through randomization methods.

  17. Austere Defense: Challenges and Opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    military advice while acquiescing to divestitures, and effectively executing the austere defense cuts required by current law through 2019 and...Could it be that our assessments of risk have, over time, become too conservative? In- deed, even with the effects of full sequestration the United... crunch . Look- ing at overhead, as Douglas Macgregor of Politico magazine reminds us, during World War II, only four four-star generals commanded a

  18. Western Hemisphere Defense Policy Statement

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-10-01

    El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras , Paraguay, Peru and Uruguay have contributed to or led multi-national security operations and United Nations (UN...impact on regional and global peace and security and reflect the new realities of defense cooperation in the hemisphere. Working with Canada and...Mexico, DoD remains prepared to deter and defeat direct threats to our homeland. We partner with Canada on regional security issues such as an evolving

  19. Application of Defense Technology Commonly Used in Boxing Match

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhixiao Li[1; Jianjun Liu[2

    2015-01-01

    Boxing defense technology is a kind of techniques to prevent the opponent from attacking successfully. Boxing is a kind of sports that needs close cooperation between attack and defense. Attack is used for defense, where there is no attack, there will be no defense, and vice versa. Defense technology is the foundation of attack technology, therefore, defense is of vital importance in boxing match.

  20. CSRF Vulnerabilities and Defensive Techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rupali D. Kombade

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Web applications are now part of day to day life due to their user friendly environment as well as advancement of technology to provide internet facilities, but these web applications brought lot of threats with them and these threats are continuously growing, one of the these threat is Cross Site Request Forgery(CSRF. CSRF attack is immerged as serious threat to web applications which based on the vulnerabilities present in the normal request response pattern of HTTP protocol. It is difficult to detect and hence it is present in most of the existing web applications. CSRF attack occurs when a malicious web site causes a user’s web browser to perform an unwanted action on a trusted site. It is listed in OWASP’s top ten Web Application attacks list. In this survey paper we will study CSRF attack, CSRF vulnerabilities and its defensive measures. We have compared various defense mechanisms to analyse the best defense mechanism. This study will help us to build strong and robust CSRF protection mechanism.

  1. Nicotine's defensive function in nature.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anke Steppuhn

    2004-08-01

    Full Text Available Plants produce metabolites that directly decrease herbivore performance, and as a consequence, herbivores are selected for resistance to these metabolites. To determine whether these metabolites actually function as defenses requires measuring the performance of plants that are altered only in the production of a certain metabolite. To date, the defensive value of most plant resistance traits has not been demonstrated in nature. We transformed native tobacco(Nicotiana attenuata with a consensus fragment of its two putrescine N-methyl transferase (pmt genes in either antisense or inverted-repeat (IRpmt orientations. Only the latter reduced (by greater than 95% constitutive and inducible nicotine. With D(4-nicotinic acid (NA, we demonstrate that silencing pmt inhibits nicotine production, while the excess NA dimerizes to form anatabine. Larvae of the nicotine-adapted herbivore Manduca sexta (tobacco hornworm grew faster and, like the beetle Diabrotica undecimpunctata, preferred IRpmt plants in choice tests. When planted in their native habitat, IRpmt plants were attacked more frequently and, compared to wild-type plants, lost 3-fold more leaf area from a variety of native herbivores, of which the beet armyworm, Spodoptera exigua, and Trimerotropis spp. grasshoppers caused the most damage. These results provide strong evidence that nicotine functions as an efficient defense in nature and highlights the value of transgenic techniques for ecological research.

  2. Priming of antiherbivore defensive responses in plants

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jinwon Kim; Gary W.Felton

    2013-01-01

    Defense priming is defined as increased readiness of defense induction.A growing body of literature indicates that plants (or intact parts of a plant) are primed in anticipation of impending environmental stresses,both biotic and abiotic,and upon the following stimulus,induce defenses more quickly and strongly.For instance,some plants previously exposed to herbivore-inducible plant volatiles (HIPVs) from neighboring plants under herbivore attack show faster or stronger defense activation and enhanced insect resistance when challenged with secondary insect feeding.Research on priming of antiherbivore defense has been limited to the HIPV-mediated mechanism until recently,but significant advances were made in the past three years,including non-HIPV-mediated defense priming,epigenetic modifications as the molecular mechanism of priming,and others.It is timely to consider the advances in research on defense priming in the plantinsect interactions.

  3. Ego defense mechanisms in Pakistani medical students: a cross sectional analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khalid Roha

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Ego defense mechanisms (or factors, defined by Freud as unconscious resources used by the ego to reduce conflict between the id and superego, are a reflection of how an individual deals with conflict and stress. This study assesses the prevalence of various ego defense mechanisms employed by medical students of Karachi, which is a group with higher stress levels than the general population. Methods A questionnaire based cross-sectional study was conducted on 682 students from five major medical colleges of Karachi over 4 weeks in November 2006. Ego defense mechanisms were assessed using the Defense Style Questionnaire (DSQ-40 individually and as grouped under Mature, Immature, and Neurotic factors. Results Lower mean scores of Immature defense mechanisms (4.78 were identified than those for Neurotic (5.62 and Mature (5.60 mechanisms among medical students of Karachi. Immature mechanisms were more commonly employed by males whereas females employed more Neurotic mechanisms than males. Neurotic and Immature defenses were significantly more prevalent in first and second year students. Mature mechanisms were significantly higher in students enrolled in Government colleges than Private institutions (p Conclusions Immature defense mechanisms were less commonly employed than Neurotic and Mature mechanisms among medical students of Karachi. The greater employment of Neurotic defenses may reflect greater stress levels than the general population. Employment of these mechanisms was associated with female gender, enrollment in a private medical college, and students enrolled in the first 2 years of medical school.

  4. Are Evaluations Inferred Directly From Overt Actions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Donald; And Others

    1975-01-01

    The operation of a covert information processing mechanism was investigated in two experiments of the self-persuasion phenomena; i. e., making an inference about a stimulus on the basis of one's past behavior. (Editor)

  5. Autonomous forward inference via DNA computing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Fu Yan; Li Gen; Li Yin; Meng Dazhi

    2007-01-01

    Recent studies direct the researchers into building DNA computing machines with intelligence, which is measured by three main points: autonomous, programmable and able to learn and adapt. Logical inference plays an important role in programmable information processing or computing. Here we present a new method to perform autonomous molecular forward inference for expert system.A novel repetitive recognition site (RRS) technique is invented to design rule-molecules in knowledge base. The inference engine runs autonomously by digesting the rule-molecule, using a Class ⅡB restriction enzyme PpiⅠ. Concentration model has been built to show the feasibility of the inference process under ideal chemical reaction conditions. Moreover, we extend to implement a triggering communication between molecular automata, as a further application of the RRS technique in our model.

  6. Inferring AS Relationships from BGP Attributes

    CERN Document Server

    Giotsas, Vasileios

    2011-01-01

    Business relationships between autonomous systems (AS) are crucial for Internet routing. Existing algorithms used heuristics to infer AS relationships from AS topology data. In this paper we propose a different approach to infer AS relationships from more informative data sources, namely the BGP Community and Local Preference attributes. These data contain rich information on AS routing policies and therefore closely reflect AS relationships. We accumulate the BGP data from RouteViews, RIPE RIS and route servers in August 2010 and February 2011. We infer the AS relationships for 39% of links that are visible in our BGP data. They cover the majority of links among the Tier-1 and Tier-2 ASes. The BGP data also allow us to discover special relationship types, namely hybrid relationship, partial-transit relationship, indirect peering relationship and backup links. Finally we evaluate and analyse the problems of the existing inference algorithms.

  7. Bayesian Cosmological inference beyond statistical isotropy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Souradeep, Tarun; Das, Santanu; Wandelt, Benjamin

    2016-10-01

    With advent of rich data sets, computationally challenge of inference in cosmology has relied on stochastic sampling method. First, I review the widely used MCMC approach used to infer cosmological parameters and present a adaptive improved implementation SCoPE developed by our group. Next, I present a general method for Bayesian inference of the underlying covariance structure of random fields on a sphere. We employ the Bipolar Spherical Harmonic (BipoSH) representation of general covariance structure on the sphere. We illustrate the efficacy of the method with a principled approach to assess violation of statistical isotropy (SI) in the sky maps of Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) fluctuations. The general, principled, approach to a Bayesian inference of the covariance structure in a random field on a sphere presented here has huge potential for application to other many aspects of cosmology and astronomy, as well as, more distant areas of research like geosciences and climate modelling.

  8. Metacognitive inferences from other people's memory performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Robert W; Schwarz, Norbert

    2016-09-01

    Three studies show that people draw metacognitive inferences about events from how well others remember the event. Given that memory fades over time, detailed accounts of distant events suggest that the event must have been particularly memorable, for example, because it was extreme. Accordingly, participants inferred that a physical assault (Study 1) or a poor restaurant experience (Studies 2-3) were more extreme when they were well remembered one year rather than one week later. These inferences influence behavioral intentions. For example, participants recommended a more severe punishment for a well-remembered distant rather than recent assault (Study 1). These metacognitive inferences are eliminated when people attribute the reporter's good memory to an irrelevant cause (e.g., photographic memory), thus undermining the informational value of memory performance (Study 3). These studies illuminate how people use lay theories of memory to learn from others' memory performance about characteristics of the world. (PsycINFO Database Record

  9. Artificial Hydrocarbon Networks Fuzzy Inference System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hiram Ponce

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a novel fuzzy inference model based on artificial hydrocarbon networks, a computational algorithm for modeling problems based on chemical hydrocarbon compounds. In particular, the proposed fuzzy-molecular inference model (FIM-model uses molecular units of information to partition the output space in the defuzzification step. Moreover, these molecules are linguistic units that can be partially understandable due to the organized structure of the topology and metadata parameters involved in artificial hydrocarbon networks. In addition, a position controller for a direct current (DC motor was implemented using the proposed FIM-model in type-1 and type-2 fuzzy inference systems. Experimental results demonstrate that the fuzzy-molecular inference model can be applied as an alternative of type-2 Mamdani’s fuzzy control systems because the set of molecular units can deal with dynamic uncertainties mostly present in real-world control applications.

  10. Experimental evidence for circular inference in schizophrenia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jardri, Renaud; Duverne, Sandrine; Litvinova, Alexandra S.; Denève, Sophie

    2017-01-01

    Schizophrenia (SCZ) is a complex mental disorder that may result in some combination of hallucinations, delusions and disorganized thinking. Here SCZ patients and healthy controls (CTLs) report their level of confidence on a forced-choice task that manipulated the strength of sensory evidence and prior information. Neither group's responses can be explained by simple Bayesian inference. Rather, individual responses are best captured by a model with different degrees of circular inference. Circular inference refers to a corruption of sensory data by prior information and vice versa, leading us to `see what we expect' (through descending loops), to `expect what we see' (through ascending loops) or both. Ascending loops are stronger for SCZ than CTLs and correlate with the severity of positive symptoms. Descending loops correlate with the severity of negative symptoms. Both loops correlate with disorganized symptoms. The findings suggest that circular inference might mediate the clinical manifestations of SCZ.

  11. Composite likelihood method for inferring local pedigrees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nielsen, Rasmus

    2017-01-01

    Pedigrees contain information about the genealogical relationships among individuals and are of fundamental importance in many areas of genetic studies. However, pedigrees are often unknown and must be inferred from genetic data. Despite the importance of pedigree inference, existing methods are limited to inferring only close relationships or analyzing a small number of individuals or loci. We present a simulated annealing method for estimating pedigrees in large samples of otherwise seemingly unrelated individuals using genome-wide SNP data. The method supports complex pedigree structures such as polygamous families, multi-generational families, and pedigrees in which many of the member individuals are missing. Computational speed is greatly enhanced by the use of a composite likelihood function which approximates the full likelihood. We validate our method on simulated data and show that it can infer distant relatives more accurately than existing methods. Furthermore, we illustrate the utility of the method on a sample of Greenlandic Inuit. PMID:28827797

  12. Inference of gene pathways using mixture Bayesian networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ko Younhee

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Inference of gene networks typically relies on measurements across a wide range of conditions or treatments. Although one network structure is predicted, the relationship between genes could vary across conditions. A comprehensive approach to infer general and condition-dependent gene networks was evaluated. This approach integrated Bayesian network and Gaussian mixture models to describe continuous microarray gene expression measurements, and three gene networks were predicted. Results The first reconstructions of a circadian rhythm pathway in honey bees and an adherens junction pathway in mouse embryos were obtained. In addition, general and condition-specific gene relationships, some unexpected, were detected in these two pathways and in a yeast cell-cycle pathway. The mixture Bayesian network approach identified all (honey bee circadian rhythm and mouse adherens junction pathways or the vast majority (yeast cell-cycle pathway of the gene relationships reported in empirical studies. Findings across the three pathways and data sets indicate that the mixture Bayesian network approach is well-suited to infer gene pathways based on microarray data. Furthermore, the interpretation of model estimates provided a broader understanding of the relationships between genes. The mixture models offered a comprehensive description of the relationships among genes in complex biological processes or across a wide range of conditions. The mixture parameter estimates and corresponding odds that the gene network inferred for a sample pertained to each mixture component allowed the uncovering of both general and condition-dependent gene relationships and patterns of expression. Conclusion This study demonstrated the two main benefits of learning gene pathways using mixture Bayesian networks. First, the identification of the optimal number of mixture components supported by the data offered a robust approach to infer gene relationships and

  13. Alpha synchronization as a brain model for unconscious defense: An overview of the work of Howard Shevrin and his team.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bazan, Ariane

    2017-03-01

    Howard Shevrin and his team have developed a stringent subliminal priming methodology, which experimentally approximates a situation of an internal, mental triggering of unconscious defense. Through a series of four studies they thus are able to bring evidence for this type of unconscious defense. With event-related potentials, three clinical studies show how synchronization of a specific brain wave, the alpha wave, known for its inhibitory function, is also induced by subliminally presented conflictual subject-specific stimuli. Therefore, alpha synchronization could serve as the brain mechanism of unconscious defense. The results only make sense if we suppose the existence of a dynamic unconscious, which has inherited childhood conflicts, and with privileged connections to neurotic symptom characteristics. Moreover, by showing that the unconscious conflict phrases, inferred by clinicians from clinical interviews, have a similar brain behavior, Shevrin and his team provide evidence that these inferences are not simply clinician-dependent subjective interpretations but also imply some form of independent mental reality. Finally, interpretation of the results has led us to propose two distinct physiological mechanisms for defense: one, unconscious defense, by alpha synchronization in connection with the drive derivatives, and another, repression, based on the indications of reality in connection with the ego.

  14. Operation of the Bayes Inference Engine

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hanson, K.M.; Cunningham, G.S.

    1998-07-27

    The authors have developed a computer application, called the Bayes Inference Engine, to enable one to make inferences about models of a physical object from radiographs taken of it. In the BIE calculational models are represented by a data-flow diagram that can be manipulated by the analyst in a graphical-programming environment. The authors demonstrate the operation of the BIE in terms of examples of two-dimensional tomographic reconstruction including uncertainty estimation.

  15. Causal inference in economics and marketing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varian, Hal R.

    2016-01-01

    This is an elementary introduction to causal inference in economics written for readers familiar with machine learning methods. The critical step in any causal analysis is estimating the counterfactual—a prediction of what would have happened in the absence of the treatment. The powerful techniques used in machine learning may be useful for developing better estimates of the counterfactual, potentially improving causal inference. PMID:27382144

  16. Inferring modules from human protein interactome classes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chaurasia Gautam

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The integration of protein-protein interaction networks derived from high-throughput screening approaches and complementary sources is a key topic in systems biology. Although integration of protein interaction data is conventionally performed, the effects of this procedure on the result of network analyses has not been examined yet. In particular, in order to optimize the fusion of heterogeneous interaction datasets, it is crucial to consider not only their degree of coverage and accuracy, but also their mutual dependencies and additional salient features. Results We examined this issue based on the analysis of modules detected by network clustering methods applied to both integrated and individual (disaggregated data sources, which we call interactome classes. Due to class diversity, we deal with variable dependencies of data features arising from structural specificities and biases, but also from possible overlaps. Since highly connected regions of the human interactome may point to potential protein complexes, we have focused on the concept of modularity, and elucidated the detection power of module extraction algorithms by independent validations based on GO, MIPS and KEGG. From the combination of protein interactions with gene expressions, a confidence scoring scheme has been proposed before proceeding via GO with further classification in permanent and transient modules. Conclusions Disaggregated interactomes are shown to be informative for inferring modularity, thus contributing to perform an effective integrative analysis. Validation of the extracted modules by multiple annotation allows for the assessment of confidence measures assigned to the modules in a protein pathway context. Notably, the proposed multilayer confidence scheme can be used for network calibration by enabling a transition from unweighted to weighted interactomes based on biological evidence.

  17. Network inference via adaptive optimal design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stigter Johannes D

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Current research in network reverse engineering for genetic or metabolic networks very often does not include a proper experimental and/or input design. In this paper we address this issue in more detail and suggest a method that includes an iterative design of experiments based, on the most recent data that become available. The presented approach allows a reliable reconstruction of the network and addresses an important issue, i.e., the analysis and the propagation of uncertainties as they exist in both the data and in our own knowledge. These two types of uncertainties have their immediate ramifications for the uncertainties in the parameter estimates and, hence, are taken into account from the very beginning of our experimental design. Findings The method is demonstrated for two small networks that include a genetic network for mRNA synthesis and degradation and an oscillatory network describing a molecular network underlying adenosine 3’-5’ cyclic monophosphate (cAMP as observed in populations of Dyctyostelium cells. In both cases a substantial reduction in parameter uncertainty was observed. Extension to larger scale networks is possible but needs a more rigorous parameter estimation algorithm that includes sparsity as a constraint in the optimization procedure. Conclusion We conclude that a careful experiment design very often (but not always pays off in terms of reliability in the inferred network topology. For large scale networks a better parameter estimation algorithm is required that includes sparsity as an additional constraint. These algorithms are available in the literature and can also be used in an adaptive optimal design setting as demonstrated in this paper.

  18. Defensive weapons and defense signals in plants: some metabolites serve both roles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maag, Daniel; Erb, Matthias; Köllner, Tobias G; Gershenzon, Jonathan

    2015-02-01

    The defense of plants against herbivores and pathogens involves the participation of an enormous range of different metabolites, some of which act directly as defensive weapons against enemies (toxins or deterrents) and some of which act as components of the complex internal signaling network that insures that defense is timed to enemy attack. Recent work reveals a surprising trend: The same compounds may act as both weapons and signals of defense. For example, two groups of well-studied defensive weapons, glucosinolates and benzoxazinoids, trigger the accumulation of the protective polysaccharide callose as a barrier against aphids and pathogens. In the other direction, several hormones acting in defense signaling (and their precursors and products) exhibit activity as weapons against pathogens. Knowing which compounds are defensive weapons, which are defensive signals and which are both is vital for understanding the functioning of plant defense systems. © 2015 WILEY Periodicals, Inc.

  19. Egg Production Constrains Chemical Defenses in a Neotropical Arachnid

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nazareth, Taís M.; Machado, Glauco

    2015-01-01

    Female investment in large eggs increases the demand for fatty acids, which are allocated for yolk production. Since the biosynthetic pathway leading to fatty acids uses the same precursors used in the formation of polyketides, allocation trade-offs are expected to emerge. Therefore, egg production should constrain the investment in chemical defenses based on polyketides, such as benzoquinones. We tested this hypothesis using the harvestman Acutiosoma longipes, which produces large eggs and releases benzoquinones as chemical defense. We predicted that the amount of secretion released by ovigerous females (OFs) would be smaller than that of non-ovigerous females (NOF). We also conducted a series of bioassays in the field and in the laboratory to test whether egg production renders OFs more vulnerable to predation. OFs produce less secretion than NOFs, which is congruent with the hypothesis that egg production constrains the investment in chemical defenses. Results of the bioassays show that the secretion released by OFs is less effective in deterring potential predators (ants and spiders) than the secretion released by NOFs. In conclusion, females allocate resources to chemical defenses in a way that preserves a primary biological function related to reproduction. However, the trade-off between egg and secretion production makes OFs vulnerable to predators. We suggest that egg production is a critical moment in the life of harvestman females, representing perhaps the highest cost of reproduction in the group. PMID:26331946

  20. Polynomial Chaos Surrogates for Bayesian Inference

    KAUST Repository

    Le Maitre, Olivier

    2016-01-06

    The Bayesian inference is a popular probabilistic method to solve inverse problems, such as the identification of field parameter in a PDE model. The inference rely on the Bayes rule to update the prior density of the sought field, from observations, and derive its posterior distribution. In most cases the posterior distribution has no explicit form and has to be sampled, for instance using a Markov-Chain Monte Carlo method. In practice the prior field parameter is decomposed and truncated (e.g. by means of Karhunen- Lo´eve decomposition) to recast the inference problem into the inference of a finite number of coordinates. Although proved effective in many situations, the Bayesian inference as sketched above faces several difficulties requiring improvements. First, sampling the posterior can be a extremely costly task as it requires multiple resolutions of the PDE model for different values of the field parameter. Second, when the observations are not very much informative, the inferred parameter field can highly depends on its prior which can be somehow arbitrary. These issues have motivated the introduction of reduced modeling or surrogates for the (approximate) determination of the parametrized PDE solution and hyperparameters in the description of the prior field. Our contribution focuses on recent developments in these two directions: the acceleration of the posterior sampling by means of Polynomial Chaos expansions and the efficient treatment of parametrized covariance functions for the prior field. We also discuss the possibility of making such approach adaptive to further improve its efficiency.

  1. Mood Inference Machine: Framework to Infer Affective Phenomena in ROODA Virtual Learning Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magalí Teresinha Longhi

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available This article presents a mechanism to infer mood states, aiming to provide virtual learning environments (VLEs with a tool able to recognize the student’s motivation. The inference model has as its parameters personality traits, motivational factors obtained through behavioral standards and the affective subjectivity identified in texts made available in the communication functionalities of the VLE. In the inference machine, such variables are treated under probability reasoning, more precisely by Bayesian networks.

  2. Does investment in leaf defenses drive changes in leaf economic strategy? A focus on whole-plant ontogeny.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mason, Chase M; Donovan, Lisa A

    2015-04-01

    Leaf defenses have long been studied in the context of plant growth rate, resource availability, and optimal investment theory. Likewise, one of the central modern paradigms of plant ecophysiology, the leaf economics spectrum (LES), has been extensively studied in the context of these factors across ecological scales ranging from global species data sets to temporal shifts within individuals. Despite strong physiological links between LES strategy and leaf defenses in structure, function, and resource investment, the relationship between these trait classes has not been well explored. This study investigates the relationship between leaf defenses and LES strategy across whole-plant ontogeny in three diverse Helianthus species known to exhibit dramatic ontogenetic shifts in LES strategy, focusing primarily on physical and quantitative chemical defenses. Plants were grown under controlled environmental conditions and sampled for LES and defense traits at four ontogenetic stages. Defenses were found to shift strongly with ontogeny, and to correlate strongly with LES strategy. More advanced ontogenetic stages with more conservative LES strategy leaves had higher tannin activity and toughness in all species, and higher leaf dry matter content in two of three species. Modeling results in two species support the conclusion that changes in defenses drive changes in LES strategy through ontogeny, and in one species that changes in defenses and LES strategy are likely independently driven by ontogeny. Results of this study support the hypothesis that leaf-level allocation to defenses might be an important determinant of leaf economic traits, where high investment in defenses drives a conservative LES strategy.

  3. West European and East Asian Perspectives on Defense, Deterrence and Strategy. Volume 1. Main Report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1984-05-16

    strategists in Spain has been incorporated into the Plan Estrategico Conjunto (PEC, Joint Strategic Plan ), which is the centerpiece around which revolves the...China yields the following major conclusions relevant to U.S. defense policy and force structure planning . %.4 .4.. WEST EUROPEAN PERSPECTIVES i" Doubts...confronts security dilemmas that hold major implications for U.S. defense planning . These include: 0 A perceived need to raise the conventional

  4. Just in time: circadian defense patterns and the optimal defense hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldwin, Ian T; Meldau, Stefan

    2013-06-01

    The optimal defense hypothesis (ODH) provides a functional explanation for the inhomogeneous distribution of defensive structures and defense metabolites throughout a plant's body: tissues that are most valuable in terms of fitness and have the highest probability of attack are generally the best defended. In a previous review, we argue that ontogenically-controlled accumulations of defense metabolites are likely regulated through an integration of developmental and defense signaling pathways. In this addendum, we extend the discussion of ODH patterns by including the recent discoveries of circadian clock-controlled defenses in plants.

  5. Cyber Defense: An International View

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-01

    Protection), available from www.gesetze-im-internet.de/gg/art_65a. html, accessed on July 30, 2014. 36. Christian Kahl, Nachrichten, Vom Kampf in der...www.bundeswehr-journal.de/2013/vom- kampf -in-der-funften- dimension/, accessed on July 30, 2014; “Digitaler Truppenein- satz: Bundeswehr meldet sich...www.bundeswehr-journal. de/2013/vom- kampf -in-der-funften-dimension/. 46. “Spionage- und Hackerabwehr: Bundeswehr baut geheime Cy- berwar-Truppe auf” (“Defense of

  6. Territorial Defense, Education, and Interculturalism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Patricia Sierra Pardo

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available The article carries out a series of reflections regarding the social and economic conditions in which the cultivation of oil palm affected the Bajo Atrato region of the Department of Chocó at the end of the nineteen nineties. It also discusses the actions carried out by communities, companies, and organizations in solidarity with the region’s cause, since these expressions make it possible to understand the role of organization and education in territorial defense processes. Finally, the article examines the different tensions, struggles, challenges, and contradictions inherent to these types of processes.

  7. Department of Defense Expenditure Plans

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-03-20

    Buxton Rd. 1,879 E 88 Redstone Arsenal AL Replace Water Main Along Paton Rd. from H.U. to Martin Rd. 1,857 E 89 Redstone Arsenal AL Fy 2009 Annual Road... Buxton Road E. from Patton to H.U. 1,312 E 25 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 Operation and Maintenance, Defense Health Program, and...Meet AR 190-11 75 O 1100 Billings AFRC MT Mechanical System Improvements 188 E 1101 Billings AFRC MT Install Lighting Controls 45 E 1102 Billings

  8. SQL Injection Attacks and Defense

    CERN Document Server

    Clarke, Justin

    2012-01-01

    SQL Injection Attacks and Defense, First Edition: Winner of the Best Book Bejtlich Read Award "SQL injection is probably the number one problem for any server-side application, and this book unequaled in its coverage." -Richard Bejtlich, Tao Security blog SQL injection represents one of the most dangerous and well-known, yet misunderstood, security vulnerabilities on the Internet, largely because there is no central repository of information available for penetration testers, IT security consultants and practitioners, and web/software developers to turn to for help. SQL Injection Att

  9. Probabilistic Generative Models for the Statistical Inference of Unobserved Paleoceanographic Events: Application to Stratigraphic Alignment for Inference of Ages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence, C.; Lin, L.; Lisiecki, L. E.; Khider, D.

    2014-12-01

    The broad goal of this presentation is to demonstrate the utility of probabilistic generative models to capture investigators' knowledge of geological processes and proxy data to draw statistical inferences about unobserved paleoclimatological events. We illustrate how this approach forces investigators to be explicit about their assumptions, and about how probability theory yields results that are a mathematical consequence of these assumptions and the data. We illustrate these ideas with the HMM-Match model that infers common times of sediment deposition in two records and the uncertainty in these inferences in the form of confidence bands. HMM-Match models the sedimentation processes that led to proxy data measured in marine sediment cores. This Bayesian model has three components: 1) a generative probabilistic model that proceeds from the underlying geophysical and geochemical events, specifically the sedimentation events to the generation the proxy data Sedimentation ---> Proxy Data ; 2) a recursive algorithm that reverses the logic of the model to yield inference about the unobserved sedimentation events and the associated alignment of the records based on proxy data Proxy Data ---> Sedimentation (Alignment) ; 3) an expectation maximization algorithm for estimating two unknown parameters. We applied HMM-Match to align 35 Late Pleistocene records to a global benthic d18Ostack and found that the mean width of 95% confidence intervals varies between 3-23 kyr depending on the resolution and noisiness of the core's d18O signal. Confidence bands within individual cores also vary greatly, ranging from ~0 to >40 kyr. Results from this algorithm will allow researchers to examine the robustness of their conclusions with respect to alignment uncertainty. Figure 1 shows the confidence bands for one low resolution record.

  10. Multisensory oddity detection as bayesian inference.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timothy Hospedales

    Full Text Available A key goal for the perceptual system is to optimally combine information from all the senses that may be available in order to develop the most accurate and unified picture possible of the outside world. The contemporary theoretical framework of ideal observer maximum likelihood integration (MLI has been highly successful in modelling how the human brain combines information from a variety of different sensory modalities. However, in various recent experiments involving multisensory stimuli of uncertain correspondence, MLI breaks down as a successful model of sensory combination. Within the paradigm of direct stimulus estimation, perceptual models which use Bayesian inference to resolve correspondence have recently been shown to generalize successfully to these cases where MLI fails. This approach has been known variously as model inference, causal inference or structure inference. In this paper, we examine causal uncertainty in another important class of multi-sensory perception paradigm--that of oddity detection and demonstrate how a Bayesian ideal observer also treats oddity detection as a structure inference problem. We validate this approach by showing that it provides an intuitive and quantitative explanation of an important pair of multi-sensory oddity detection experiments--involving cues across and within modalities--for which MLI previously failed dramatically, allowing a novel unifying treatment of within and cross modal multisensory perception. Our successful application of structure inference models to the new 'oddity detection' paradigm, and the resultant unified explanation of across and within modality cases provide further evidence to suggest that structure inference may be a commonly evolved principle for combining perceptual information in the brain.

  11. Multisensory oddity detection as bayesian inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hospedales, Timothy; Vijayakumar, Sethu

    2009-01-01

    A key goal for the perceptual system is to optimally combine information from all the senses that may be available in order to develop the most accurate and unified picture possible of the outside world. The contemporary theoretical framework of ideal observer maximum likelihood integration (MLI) has been highly successful in modelling how the human brain combines information from a variety of different sensory modalities. However, in various recent experiments involving multisensory stimuli of uncertain correspondence, MLI breaks down as a successful model of sensory combination. Within the paradigm of direct stimulus estimation, perceptual models which use Bayesian inference to resolve correspondence have recently been shown to generalize successfully to these cases where MLI fails. This approach has been known variously as model inference, causal inference or structure inference. In this paper, we examine causal uncertainty in another important class of multi-sensory perception paradigm--that of oddity detection and demonstrate how a Bayesian ideal observer also treats oddity detection as a structure inference problem. We validate this approach by showing that it provides an intuitive and quantitative explanation of an important pair of multi-sensory oddity detection experiments--involving cues across and within modalities--for which MLI previously failed dramatically, allowing a novel unifying treatment of within and cross modal multisensory perception. Our successful application of structure inference models to the new 'oddity detection' paradigm, and the resultant unified explanation of across and within modality cases provide further evidence to suggest that structure inference may be a commonly evolved principle for combining perceptual information in the brain.

  12. Inference of Isoforms from Short Sequence Reads

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Jianxing; Li, Wei; Jiang, Tao

    Due to alternative splicing events in eukaryotic species, the identification of mRNA isoforms (or splicing variants) is a difficult problem. Traditional experimental methods for this purpose are time consuming and cost ineffective. The emerging RNA-Seq technology provides a possible effective method to address this problem. Although the advantages of RNA-Seq over traditional methods in transcriptome analysis have been confirmed by many studies, the inference of isoforms from millions of short sequence reads (e.g., Illumina/Solexa reads) has remained computationally challenging. In this work, we propose a method to calculate the expression levels of isoforms and infer isoforms from short RNA-Seq reads using exon-intron boundary, transcription start site (TSS) and poly-A site (PAS) information. We first formulate the relationship among exons, isoforms, and single-end reads as a convex quadratic program, and then use an efficient algorithm (called IsoInfer) to search for isoforms. IsoInfer can calculate the expression levels of isoforms accurately if all the isoforms are known and infer novel isoforms from scratch. Our experimental tests on known mouse isoforms with both simulated expression levels and reads demonstrate that IsoInfer is able to calculate the expression levels of isoforms with an accuracy comparable to the state-of-the-art statistical method and a 60 times faster speed. Moreover, our tests on both simulated and real reads show that it achieves a good precision and sensitivity in inferring isoforms when given accurate exon-intron boundary, TSS and PAS information, especially for isoforms whose expression levels are significantly high.

  13. Secure and defensive high self-esteem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jordan, Christian H; Spencer, Steven J; Zanna, Mark P; Hoshino-Browne, Etsuko; Correll, Joshua

    2003-11-01

    Long-standing theories have suggested high self-esteem (SE) can assume qualitatively different forms that are related to defensiveness. The authors explored whether some high-SE individuals are particularly defensive because they harbor negative self-feelings at less conscious levels, indicated by low implicit SE. In Study 1, participants high in explicit SE but low in implicit SE showed the highest levels of narcissism--an indicator of defensiveness. In Studies 2 and 3, the correspondence between implicit and explicit SE predicted defensive behavior (in-group bias in Study 2 and dissonance reduction in Study 3), such that for high explicit-SE participants, those with relatively low implicit SE behaved more defensively. These results are consistent with the idea that high SE can be relatively secure or defensive.

  14. The methodological defense of realism scrutinized.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wray, K Brad

    2015-12-01

    I revisit an older defense of scientific realism, the methodological defense, a defense developed by both Popper and Feyerabend. The methodological defense of realism concerns the attitude of scientists, not philosophers of science. The methodological defense is as follows: a commitment to realism leads scientists to pursue the truth, which in turn is apt to put them in a better position to get at the truth. In contrast, anti-realists lack the tenacity required to develop a theory to its fullest. As a consequence, they are less likely to get at the truth. My aim is to show that the methodological defense is flawed. I argue that a commitment to realism does not always benefit science, and that there is reason to believe that a research community with both realists and anti-realists in it may be better suited to advancing science. A case study of the Copernican Revolution in astronomy supports this claim.

  15. A Systems Biology Approach to the Coordination of Defensive and Offensive Molecular Mechanisms in the Innate and Adaptive Host-Pathogen Interaction Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Chia-Chou; Chen, Bor-Sen

    2016-01-01

    Infected zebrafish coordinates defensive and offensive molecular mechanisms in response to Candida albicans infections, and invasive C. albicans coordinates corresponding molecular mechanisms to interact with the host. However, knowledge of the ensuing infection-activated signaling networks in both host and pathogen and their interspecific crosstalk during the innate and adaptive phases of the infection processes remains incomplete. In the present study, dynamic network modeling, protein interaction databases, and dual transcriptome data from zebrafish and C. albicans during infection were used to infer infection-activated host-pathogen dynamic interaction networks. The consideration of host-pathogen dynamic interaction systems as innate and adaptive loops and subsequent comparisons of inferred innate and adaptive networks indicated previously unrecognized crosstalk between known pathways and suggested roles of immunological memory in the coordination of host defensive and offensive molecular mechanisms to achieve specific and powerful defense against pathogens. Moreover, pathogens enhance intraspecific crosstalk and abrogate host apoptosis to accommodate enhanced host defense mechanisms during the adaptive phase. Accordingly, links between physiological phenomena and changes in the coordination of defensive and offensive molecular mechanisms highlight the importance of host-pathogen molecular interaction networks, and consequent inferences of the host-pathogen relationship could be translated into biomedical applications.

  16. Korean Defense Industry: Threat or Ally?

    Science.gov (United States)

    1994-02-22

    framework for defense industrial cooperation with Korea . While Senator Dixon eventually dropped his opposition and the Korean Fighter Program is now...US defense firms to transfer technology to Korean firms, the US Government must recognize two realities: first, Korea will develop indigenous...serious Korean competition in the foreseeable future. 8 It does not appear that the Korea defense industry is poised to take away significant market

  17. Implementing an Integrated Network Defense Construct

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-01

    to create an easily defendable avenue for ingress and egress. In medieval times, castles leveraged this principle. If an attacker was brazen enough...defense mirrors that of the physical world, its application has some significant drawbacks. Whereas the medieval castle defenders had the high ground...defenses. Logically an INDS can and should follow the same premise. 3. Integrated Air Defense To model an INDS after an IADS, it is necessary

  18. THE DEFENSE PLANNING SYSTEMS AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laszlo STICZ

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Defense planning in the Alliance is a fundamental element of the arrangements which enable its member countries to enjoy the crucial political, military and resource advantages of collective defense and other common military efforts to enhance security and stability. In this respect, the aim of this paper is to outline the role of the Armed Forces and the specific processes aiming to achieve the ultimate goal of a nation regarding national security, with focus on defense planning and the PDPS.

  19. Integrated Air and Missile Defense (IAMD)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-12-01

    Base Year DAMIR - Defense Acquisition Management Information Retrieval Dev Est - Development Estimate DoD - Department of Defense DSN - Defense...Schedule Milestones SAR Baseline Dev Est Current APB Development Objective/Threshold Current Estimate MS B DEC 2009 DEC 2009 JUN...2010 DEC 2009 CDR AUG 2011 MAY 2012 MAY 2013 MAY 2012 MS C DEC 2014 JUN 2015 JUN 2016 AUG 2016 1 (Ch-1) IOT &E Start JAN 2016 MAR 2016 MAR 2017 OCT 2017

  20. Offset implementations for Turkey's International Defense Acquisitions

    OpenAIRE

    2008-01-01

    MBA Professional Report "Offsets" is the umbrella term for a broad range of industrial and commercial "compensatory" practices. Specifically, offset agreements in the defense environment are increasing globally as a percentage of exports. Developed countries with established defense industries use offsets to channel work or technology to their domestic defense companies. Countries with newly industrialized economies are utilizing both military and commercial related offsets that involv...

  1. Malpractice liability and defensive medicine: a national survey of neurosurgeons.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian V Nahed

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Concern over rising healthcare expenditures has led to increased scrutiny of medical practices. As medical liability and malpractice risk rise to crisis levels, the medical-legal environment has contributed to the practice of defensive medicine as practitioners attempt to mitigate liability risk. High-risk specialties, such as neurosurgery, are particularly affected and neurosurgeons have altered their practices to lessen medical-legal risk. We present the first national survey of American neurosurgeons' perceptions of malpractice liability and defensive medicine practices. METHODS: A validated, 51-question online-survey was sent to 3344 practicing U.S. neurosurgeon members of the American Association of Neurological Surgeons, which represents 76% of neurosurgeons in academic and private practices. RESULTS: A total of 1028 surveys were completed (31% response rate by neurosurgeons representing diverse sub-specialty practices. Respondents engaged in defensive medicine practices by ordering additional imaging studies (72%, laboratory tests (67%, referring patients to consultants (66%, or prescribing medications (40%. Malpractice premiums were considered a "major or extreme" burden by 64% of respondents which resulted in 45% of respondents eliminating high-risk procedures from their practice due to liability concerns. CONCLUSIONS: Concerns and perceptions about medical liability lead practitioners to practice defensive medicine. As a result, diagnostic testing, consultations and imaging studies are ordered to satisfy a perceived legal risk, resulting in higher healthcare expenditures. To minimize malpractice risk, some neurosurgeons have eliminated high-risk procedures. Left unchecked, concerns over medical liability will further defensive medicine practices, limit patient access to care, and increase the cost of healthcare delivery in the United States.

  2. SELF-DEFENSE IN KARABAKH CONFLICT?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saeed Bagheri

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Use of force is one of the principles of international law which has been banned by the UN Charter and modern constitutions. However, since the enforcement of the UN Charter, self-defense has become the preferred excuse for states to justify their use of force. But applying self-defense requires some conditions. Immediacy is one of the important conditions of self-defense. Immediacy defined as the time span between armed attacks and reaction to it, is the main discourse. This condition requires self defense immediately after the armed conflict or during a rational time span since its occurance.In this respect, the emerging Karabakh Conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the 1990s is important. After Armenia’s armed attacks, Azerbaijan has acted within the scope of legitimate self-defense. But in accordance with UN Security Council cease-fire resolution Azerbaijan has suspended its self-defense actions. However, today, still twenty percent of Azerbaijani territory is still under Armenian occupation. Accordingly, after a long time the validity of Azerbaijan’s right to legitimate self-defense is still subject to arguments.In this article, by comparing two different approaches (strict and board interpretation approaches on the temporal link between the measures of self-defense and the armed attacks (immediacy, the temporal link between the self-defense countermeasures of Azerbaijan and armed attacks by Armenia in Karabakh Conflict will be examined.

  3. Deep Learning for Population Genetic Inference.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara Sheehan

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Given genomic variation data from multiple individuals, computing the likelihood of complex population genetic models is often infeasible. To circumvent this problem, we introduce a novel likelihood-free inference framework by applying deep learning, a powerful modern technique in machine learning. Deep learning makes use of multilayer neural networks to learn a feature-based function from the input (e.g., hundreds of correlated summary statistics of data to the output (e.g., population genetic parameters of interest. We demonstrate that deep learning can be effectively employed for population genetic inference and learning informative features of data. As a concrete application, we focus on the challenging problem of jointly inferring natural selection and demography (in the form of a population size change history. Our method is able to separate the global nature of demography from the local nature of selection, without sequential steps for these two factors. Studying demography and selection jointly is motivated by Drosophila, where pervasive selection confounds demographic analysis. We apply our method to 197 African Drosophila melanogaster genomes from Zambia to infer both their overall demography, and regions of their genome under selection. We find many regions of the genome that have experienced hard sweeps, and fewer under selection on standing variation (soft sweep or balancing selection. Interestingly, we find that soft sweeps and balancing selection occur more frequently closer to the centromere of each chromosome. In addition, our demographic inference suggests that previously estimated bottlenecks for African Drosophila melanogaster are too extreme.

  4. Deep Learning for Population Genetic Inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheehan, Sara; Song, Yun S

    2016-03-01

    Given genomic variation data from multiple individuals, computing the likelihood of complex population genetic models is often infeasible. To circumvent this problem, we introduce a novel likelihood-free inference framework by applying deep learning, a powerful modern technique in machine learning. Deep learning makes use of multilayer neural networks to learn a feature-based function from the input (e.g., hundreds of correlated summary statistics of data) to the output (e.g., population genetic parameters of interest). We demonstrate that deep learning can be effectively employed for population genetic inference and learning informative features of data. As a concrete application, we focus on the challenging problem of jointly inferring natural selection and demography (in the form of a population size change history). Our method is able to separate the global nature of demography from the local nature of selection, without sequential steps for these two factors. Studying demography and selection jointly is motivated by Drosophila, where pervasive selection confounds demographic analysis. We apply our method to 197 African Drosophila melanogaster genomes from Zambia to infer both their overall demography, and regions of their genome under selection. We find many regions of the genome that have experienced hard sweeps, and fewer under selection on standing variation (soft sweep) or balancing selection. Interestingly, we find that soft sweeps and balancing selection occur more frequently closer to the centromere of each chromosome. In addition, our demographic inference suggests that previously estimated bottlenecks for African Drosophila melanogaster are too extreme.

  5. Deep Learning for Population Genetic Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheehan, Sara; Song, Yun S.

    2016-01-01

    Given genomic variation data from multiple individuals, computing the likelihood of complex population genetic models is often infeasible. To circumvent this problem, we introduce a novel likelihood-free inference framework by applying deep learning, a powerful modern technique in machine learning. Deep learning makes use of multilayer neural networks to learn a feature-based function from the input (e.g., hundreds of correlated summary statistics of data) to the output (e.g., population genetic parameters of interest). We demonstrate that deep learning can be effectively employed for population genetic inference and learning informative features of data. As a concrete application, we focus on the challenging problem of jointly inferring natural selection and demography (in the form of a population size change history). Our method is able to separate the global nature of demography from the local nature of selection, without sequential steps for these two factors. Studying demography and selection jointly is motivated by Drosophila, where pervasive selection confounds demographic analysis. We apply our method to 197 African Drosophila melanogaster genomes from Zambia to infer both their overall demography, and regions of their genome under selection. We find many regions of the genome that have experienced hard sweeps, and fewer under selection on standing variation (soft sweep) or balancing selection. Interestingly, we find that soft sweeps and balancing selection occur more frequently closer to the centromere of each chromosome. In addition, our demographic inference suggests that previously estimated bottlenecks for African Drosophila melanogaster are too extreme. PMID:27018908

  6. Generative Inferences Based on Learned Relations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Dawn; Lu, Hongjing; Holyoak, Keith J

    2016-11-17

    A key property of relational representations is their generativity: From partial descriptions of relations between entities, additional inferences can be drawn about other entities. A major theoretical challenge is to demonstrate how the capacity to make generative inferences could arise as a result of learning relations from non-relational inputs. In the present paper, we show that a bottom-up model of relation learning, initially developed to discriminate between positive and negative examples of comparative relations (e.g., deciding whether a sheep is larger than a rabbit), can be extended to make generative inferences. The model is able to make quasi-deductive transitive inferences (e.g., "If A is larger than B and B is larger than C, then A is larger than C") and to qualitatively account for human responses to generative questions such as "What is an animal that is smaller than a dog?" These results provide evidence that relational models based on bottom-up learning mechanisms are capable of supporting generative inferences.

  7. Computationally efficient Bayesian inference for inverse problems.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marzouk, Youssef M.; Najm, Habib N.; Rahn, Larry A.

    2007-10-01

    Bayesian statistics provides a foundation for inference from noisy and incomplete data, a natural mechanism for regularization in the form of prior information, and a quantitative assessment of uncertainty in the inferred results. Inverse problems - representing indirect estimation of model parameters, inputs, or structural components - can be fruitfully cast in this framework. Complex and computationally intensive forward models arising in physical applications, however, can render a Bayesian approach prohibitive. This difficulty is compounded by high-dimensional model spaces, as when the unknown is a spatiotemporal field. We present new algorithmic developments for Bayesian inference in this context, showing strong connections with the forward propagation of uncertainty. In particular, we introduce a stochastic spectral formulation that dramatically accelerates the Bayesian solution of inverse problems via rapid evaluation of a surrogate posterior. We also explore dimensionality reduction for the inference of spatiotemporal fields, using truncated spectral representations of Gaussian process priors. These new approaches are demonstrated on scalar transport problems arising in contaminant source inversion and in the inference of inhomogeneous material or transport properties. We also present a Bayesian framework for parameter estimation in stochastic models, where intrinsic stochasticity may be intermingled with observational noise. Evaluation of a likelihood function may not be analytically tractable in these cases, and thus several alternative Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) schemes, operating on the product space of the observations and the parameters, are introduced.

  8. An Empirical Investigation of Defense Interpretation Depth, Defensive Functioning, and Alliance Strength in Psychodynamic Psychotherapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petraglia, Jonathan; Bhatia, Maneet; De Roten, Yves; Despland, Jean-Nicolas; Drapeau, Martin

    2015-01-01

    The present study examined the relationship between depth of defense interpretations by therapists, and patient defensive functioning, on the therapeutic alliance in a sample of 36 patients undergoing short-term dynamic psychotherapy. Defense interpretation depth was defined as the degree to which therapist interpretations contained information regarding the motivation for patient defenses and historical origins of the defensive processes (Greensen, 1967). Mean depth of interpretation was compared between sessions that were identified beforehand as either high-alliance or low-alliance sessions using the Helping Alliance Questionnaire (HAq-II: Luborsky et al., 1996). Results indicated that defensive functioning was correlated to defense interpretation depth in low-alliance sessions. Moreover, mean depth of interpretation was also higher in low-alliance sessions, pointing to the possible "destabilizing" effects that these interpretations may have on both defensive functioning and the therapeutic alliance. These results are discussed within the context of previous studies of therapeutic technique in dynamic psychotherapy.

  9. The insanity defense: Related issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asokan, T. V.

    2016-01-01

    For the past 150 years, there is no change in the understanding and knowledge other than autonomy and capacity to choose the right and wrong for criminal liability. The alternative concept that human behavior is the result of an interaction between biological and environmental factors other than free choice failed to impress the criminal justice system because of a direct threat to a society's deep seated need to blame someone than themselves for criminal harms that occur. The insanity defense has a long history, and is evolved after many tests that have been tried and tested. McNaughton's rules stressed on “understandability of right and wrong” and “intellectual” rather than a moral or affective definition dominated in its formulation. Lack of control and irresistible drives or impulses were neglected Going by the current understanding of neurological evidences of compulsion and lack of impulse control, rationality tests without the inclusion of lack of control, seem to be outdated. Separate “Control determination” than the “Rationality determination” by the jurors may improve the accuracy of Juror's categorizations. There is a suggestion that Relevance ratio is ideal for ‘Evidentiary relevance” and there should be a quality control on expert testimonies. With progress in neuroscience, the law may need to abandon or alter some of its current assumptions about the nature of voluntary conduct, which underlies various defenses PMID:28216769

  10. Defensive anality and anal narcissism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shengold, L

    1985-01-01

    This paper aims at demonstrating a currently beleaguered assumption: the central importance, the continuing vitality, and the appropriate complexity of Freud's theory of the drives and of his idea of the primacy of the body ego. It is not enough to consider man a thinking machine or a social being; his animal nature must be given a central place in psychology. The paper postulates that 'anal or sphincter defensiveness' is one of the precursors of the repression barrier. Anality has been comparatively neglected in recent psychoanalytic literature, and so has its explorer, Karl Abraham. The paper's thesis is that there is a special defensive importance to anal erogeneity and libido, and to those aspects of ego and superego that are functionally operative (as the 'sadistic-anal organization' (Freud, 1917)) during the so-called 'sadistic-anal' developmental phase. Any of the psychic danger situations can evoke regression to manifestations of 'anal narcissim'--an attempt to master overwhelming feeling by a kind of emotional sphincter action, narrowing down the world to the controllable and the predictable. The basic assumption here is Fliess's idea that the attainment of anal sphincter control functions--with, as-it-were, 'psychic resonance'--as a means to master primal (murderous, cannibalistic) affect. For optimal psychic development, a proper balance must be attained between anal control of, and anal expression of, instinctual derivatives--especially of affect laden with aggression.

  11. Nrf2 and cardiovascular defense.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howden, Reuben

    2013-01-01

    The cardiovascular system is susceptible to a group of diseases that are responsible for a larger proportion of morbidity and mortality than any other disease. Many cardiovascular diseases are associated with a failure of defenses against oxidative stress-induced cellular damage and/or death, leading to organ dysfunction. The pleiotropic transcription factor, nuclear factor-erythroid (NF-E) 2-related factor 2 (Nrf2), regulates the expression of antioxidant enzymes and proteins through the antioxidant response element. Nrf2 is an important component in antioxidant defenses in cardiovascular diseases such as atherosclerosis, hypertension, and heart failure. Nrf2 is also involved in protection against oxidant stress during the processes of ischemia-reperfusion injury and aging. However, evidence suggests that Nrf2 activity does not always lead to a positive outcome and may accelerate the pathogenesis of some cardiovascular diseases (e.g., atherosclerosis). The precise conditions under which Nrf2 acts to attenuate or stimulate cardiovascular disease processes are unclear. Further studies on the cellular environments related to cardiovascular diseases that influence Nrf2 pathways are required before Nrf2 can be considered a therapeutic target for the treatment of cardiovascular diseases.

  12. Nrf2 and Cardiovascular Defense

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reuben Howden

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The cardiovascular system is susceptible to a group of diseases that are responsible for a larger proportion of morbidity and mortality than any other disease. Many cardiovascular diseases are associated with a failure of defenses against oxidative stress-induced cellular damage and/or death, leading to organ dysfunction. The pleiotropic transcription factor, nuclear factor-erythroid (NF-E 2-related factor 2 (Nrf2, regulates the expression of antioxidant enzymes and proteins through the antioxidant response element. Nrf2 is an important component in antioxidant defenses in cardiovascular diseases such as atherosclerosis, hypertension, and heart failure. Nrf2 is also involved in protection against oxidant stress during the processes of ischemia-reperfusion injury and aging. However, evidence suggests that Nrf2 activity does not always lead to a positive outcome and may accelerate the pathogenesis of some cardiovascular diseases (e.g., atherosclerosis. The precise conditions under which Nrf2 acts to attenuate or stimulate cardiovascular disease processes are unclear. Further studies on the cellular environments related to cardiovascular diseases that influence Nrf2 pathways are required before Nrf2 can be considered a therapeutic target for the treatment of cardiovascular diseases.

  13. Defense Science Board Task Force on Defense Strategies for Advanced Ballistic and Cruise Missile Threats

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    REPORT OF THE DEFENSE SCIENCE BOARD TASK FORCE ON Defense Strategies for Advanced Ballistic and Cruise Missile Threats January 2017 Office of... Science Board (DSB). The DSB is a Federal Advisory Committee established to provide independent advice to the Secretary of Defense. Statements, opinions... Science Board Task Force on Defense Strategies for Advanced Ballistic and Cruise Missile Threats completed its information-gathering in February 2016

  14. Using Alien Coins to Test Whether Simple Inference Is Bayesian

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassey, Peter; Hawkins, Guy E.; Donkin, Chris; Brown, Scott D.

    2016-01-01

    Reasoning and inference are well-studied aspects of basic cognition that have been explained as statistically optimal Bayesian inference. Using a simplified experimental design, we conducted quantitative comparisons between Bayesian inference and human inference at the level of individuals. In 3 experiments, with more than 13,000 participants, we…

  15. Defensive medicine among obstetricians and gynecologists in tertiary hospitals.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elad Asher

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To describe the daily work practice under the threat of defensive medicine among obstetricians and gynecologists. STUDY DESIGN: A prospective cross-sectional survey of obstetricians and gynecologists working at tertiary medical centers in Israel. RESULTS: Among the 117 obstetricians and gynecologists who participated in the survey, representing 10% of the obstetricians and gynecologists registered by the Israel Medical Association, 113 (97% felt that their daily work practice is influenced by concern about being sued for medical negligence and not only by genuine medical considerations. As a result, 102 (87% physicians are more likely to offer the cesarean section option, even in the absence of a clear medical indication, 70 (60% follow court rulings concerning medical practices, and 85 (73% physicians mentioned that discussions about medical negligence court rulings are included in their departments' meetings. CONCLUSIONS: Defensive medicine is a well-embedded phenomenon affecting the medical decision process of obstetricians and gynecologists.

  16. Statistical inference based on divergence measures

    CERN Document Server

    Pardo, Leandro

    2005-01-01

    The idea of using functionals of Information Theory, such as entropies or divergences, in statistical inference is not new. However, in spite of the fact that divergence statistics have become a very good alternative to the classical likelihood ratio test and the Pearson-type statistic in discrete models, many statisticians remain unaware of this powerful approach.Statistical Inference Based on Divergence Measures explores classical problems of statistical inference, such as estimation and hypothesis testing, on the basis of measures of entropy and divergence. The first two chapters form an overview, from a statistical perspective, of the most important measures of entropy and divergence and study their properties. The author then examines the statistical analysis of discrete multivariate data with emphasis is on problems in contingency tables and loglinear models using phi-divergence test statistics as well as minimum phi-divergence estimators. The final chapter looks at testing in general populations, prese...

  17. Hierarchical probabilistic inference of cosmic shear

    CERN Document Server

    Schneider, Michael D; Marshall, Philip J; Dawson, William A; Meyers, Joshua; Bard, Deborah J; Lang, Dustin

    2014-01-01

    Point estimators for the shearing of galaxy images induced by gravitational lensing involve a complex inverse problem in the presence of noise, pixelization, and model uncertainties. We present a probabilistic forward modeling approach to gravitational lensing inference that has the potential to mitigate the biased inferences in most common point estimators and is practical for upcoming lensing surveys. The first part of our statistical framework requires specification of a likelihood function for the pixel data in an imaging survey given parameterized models for the galaxies in the images. We derive the lensing shear posterior by marginalizing over all intrinsic galaxy properties that contribute to the pixel data (i.e., not limited to galaxy ellipticities) and learn the distributions for the intrinsic galaxy properties via hierarchical inference with a suitably flexible conditional probabilitiy distribution specification. We use importance sampling to separate the modeling of small imaging areas from the glo...

  18. Lifted Inference for Relational Continuous Models

    CERN Document Server

    Choi, Jaesik; Hill, David J

    2012-01-01

    Relational Continuous Models (RCMs) represent joint probability densities over attributes of objects, when the attributes have continuous domains. With relational representations, they can model joint probability distributions over large numbers of variables compactly in a natural way. This paper presents a new exact lifted inference algorithm for RCMs, thus it scales up to large models of real world applications. The algorithm applies to Relational Pairwise Models which are (relational) products of potentials of arity 2. Our algorithm is unique in two ways. First, it substantially improves the efficiency of lifted inference with variables of continuous domains. When a relational model has Gaussian potentials, it takes only linear-time compared to cubic time of previous methods. Second, it is the first exact inference algorithm which handles RCMs in a lifted way. The algorithm is illustrated over an example from econometrics. Experimental results show that our algorithm outperforms both a groundlevel inferenc...

  19. On Tidal Inference in the Diurnal Band

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ray, R. D.

    2017-01-01

    Standard methods of tidal inference should be revised to account for a known resonance that occurs mostly within the K(sub 1) tidal group in the diurnal band. The resonance arises from a free rotational mode of Earth caused by the fluid core. In a set of 110 bottom-pressure tide stations, the amplitude of the P(sub 1) tidal constituent is shown to be suppressed relative to K(sub 1), which is in good agreement with the resonance theory. Standard formulas for the K(sub 1) nodal modulation remain essentially unaffected. Two examples are given of applications of the refined inference methodology: one with monthly tide gauge data and one with satellite altimetry. For some altimeter-constrained tide models, an inferred P(sub 1) constituent is found to be more accurate than a directly determined one.

  20. Grammatical inference algorithms, routines and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Wieczorek, Wojciech

    2017-01-01

    This book focuses on grammatical inference, presenting classic and modern methods of grammatical inference from the perspective of practitioners. To do so, it employs the Python programming language to present all of the methods discussed. Grammatical inference is a field that lies at the intersection of multiple disciplines, with contributions from computational linguistics, pattern recognition, machine learning, computational biology, formal learning theory and many others. Though the book is largely practical, it also includes elements of learning theory, combinatorics on words, the theory of automata and formal languages, plus references to real-world problems. The listings presented here can be directly copied and pasted into other programs, thus making the book a valuable source of ready recipes for students, academic researchers, and programmers alike, as well as an inspiration for their further development.>.

  1. Parameter inference with estimated covariance matrices

    CERN Document Server

    Sellentin, Elena

    2015-01-01

    When inferring parameters from a Gaussian-distributed data set by computing a likelihood, a covariance matrix is needed that describes the data errors and their correlations. If the covariance matrix is not known a priori, it may be estimated and thereby becomes a random object with some intrinsic uncertainty itself. We show how to infer parameters in the presence of such an estimated covariance matrix, by marginalising over the true covariance matrix, conditioned on its estimated value. This leads to a likelihood function that is no longer Gaussian, but rather an adapted version of a multivariate $t$-distribution, which has the same numerical complexity as the multivariate Gaussian. As expected, marginalisation over the true covariance matrix improves inference when compared with Hartlap et al.'s method, which uses an unbiased estimate of the inverse covariance matrix but still assumes that the likelihood is Gaussian.

  2. Inferring epidemic network topology from surveillance data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Xiang; Liu, Jiming; Cheung, William K; Tong, Tiejun

    2014-01-01

    The transmission of infectious diseases can be affected by many or even hidden factors, making it difficult to accurately predict when and where outbreaks may emerge. One approach at the moment is to develop and deploy surveillance systems in an effort to detect outbreaks as timely as possible. This enables policy makers to modify and implement strategies for the control of the transmission. The accumulated surveillance data including temporal, spatial, clinical, and demographic information, can provide valuable information with which to infer the underlying epidemic networks. Such networks can be quite informative and insightful as they characterize how infectious diseases transmit from one location to another. The aim of this work is to develop a computational model that allows inferences to be made regarding epidemic network topology in heterogeneous populations. We apply our model on the surveillance data from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Hong Kong. The inferred epidemic network displays significant effect on the propagation of infectious diseases.

  3. Examples in parametric inference with R

    CERN Document Server

    Dixit, Ulhas Jayram

    2016-01-01

    This book discusses examples in parametric inference with R. Combining basic theory with modern approaches, it presents the latest developments and trends in statistical inference for students who do not have an advanced mathematical and statistical background. The topics discussed in the book are fundamental and common to many fields of statistical inference and thus serve as a point of departure for in-depth study. The book is divided into eight chapters: Chapter 1 provides an overview of topics on sufficiency and completeness, while Chapter 2 briefly discusses unbiased estimation. Chapter 3 focuses on the study of moments and maximum likelihood estimators, and Chapter 4 presents bounds for the variance. In Chapter 5, topics on consistent estimator are discussed. Chapter 6 discusses Bayes, while Chapter 7 studies some more powerful tests. Lastly, Chapter 8 examines unbiased and other tests. Senior undergraduate and graduate students in statistics and mathematics, and those who have taken an introductory cou...

  4. Picturing classical and quantum Bayesian inference

    CERN Document Server

    Coecke, Bob

    2011-01-01

    We introduce a graphical framework for Bayesian inference that is sufficiently general to accommodate not just the standard case but also recent proposals for a theory of quantum Bayesian inference wherein one considers density operators rather than probability distributions as representative of degrees of belief. The diagrammatic framework is stated in the graphical language of symmetric monoidal categories and of compact structures and Frobenius structures therein, in which Bayesian inversion boils down to transposition with respect to an appropriate compact structure. We characterize classical Bayesian inference in terms of a graphical property and demonstrate that our approach eliminates some purely conventional elements that appear in common representations thereof, such as whether degrees of belief are represented by probabilities or entropic quantities. We also introduce a quantum-like calculus wherein the Frobenius structure is noncommutative and show that it can accommodate Leifer's calculus of `cond...

  5. Inferring causality from noisy time series data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mønster, Dan; Fusaroli, Riccardo; Tylén, Kristian;

    2016-01-01

    Convergent Cross-Mapping (CCM) has shown high potential to perform causal inference in the absence of models. We assess the strengths and weaknesses of the method by varying coupling strength and noise levels in coupled logistic maps. We find that CCM fails to infer accurate coupling strength...... and even causality direction in synchronized time-series and in the presence of intermediate coupling. We find that the presence of noise deterministically reduces the level of cross-mapping fidelity, while the convergence rate exhibits higher levels of robustness. Finally, we propose that controlled noise...... injections in intermediate-to-strongly coupled systems could enable more accurate causal inferences. Given the inherent noisy nature of real-world systems, our findings enable a more accurate evaluation of CCM applicability and advance suggestions on how to overcome its weaknesses....

  6. A Learning Algorithm for Multimodal Grammar Inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Ulizia, A; Ferri, F; Grifoni, P

    2011-12-01

    The high costs of development and maintenance of multimodal grammars in integrating and understanding input in multimodal interfaces lead to the investigation of novel algorithmic solutions in automating grammar generation and in updating processes. Many algorithms for context-free grammar inference have been developed in the natural language processing literature. An extension of these algorithms toward the inference of multimodal grammars is necessary for multimodal input processing. In this paper, we propose a novel grammar inference mechanism that allows us to learn a multimodal grammar from its positive samples of multimodal sentences. The algorithm first generates the multimodal grammar that is able to parse the positive samples of sentences and, afterward, makes use of two learning operators and the minimum description length metrics in improving the grammar description and in avoiding the over-generalization problem. The experimental results highlight the acceptable performances of the algorithm proposed in this paper since it has a very high probability of parsing valid sentences.

  7. Generalized Collective Inference with Symmetric Clique Potentials

    CERN Document Server

    Gupta, Rahul; Dewan, Ajit A

    2009-01-01

    Collective graphical models exploit inter-instance associative dependence to output more accurate labelings. However existing models support very limited kind of associativity which restricts accuracy gains. This paper makes two major contributions. First, we propose a general collective inference framework that biases data instances to agree on a set of {\\em properties} of their labelings. Agreement is encouraged through symmetric clique potentials. We show that rich properties leads to bigger gains, and present a systematic inference procedure for a large class of such properties. The procedure performs message passing on the cluster graph, where property-aware messages are computed with cluster specific algorithms. This provides an inference-only solution for domain adaptation. Our experiments on bibliographic information extraction illustrate significant test error reduction over unseen domains. Our second major contribution consists of algorithms for computing outgoing messages from clique clusters with ...

  8. Strategic Defense Initiative: Splendid Defense or Pipe Dream? Headline Series No. 275.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armstrong, Scott; Grier, Peter

    This pamphlet presents a discussion of the various components of President Reagan's Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) including the problem of pulling together various new technologies into an effective defensive system and the politics of the so-called "star wars" system. An important part of the defense initiative is the "layered" defense…

  9. 75 FR 65462 - Renewal of Department of Defense Federal Advisory Committee; Department of Defense Military...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-25

    ... Military Family Readiness Council AGENCY: Department of Defense (DoD). ACTION: Renewal of Federal advisory... Department of Defense Military Family Readiness Council (hereafter referred to as the ``Council''). FOR... military family readiness by the Department of Defense; and (c) evaluate and assess the effectiveness...

  10. 75 FR 3210 - Renewal of Department of Defense Federal Advisory Committee; Defense Business Board

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-20

    ... sector corporations or entities and a wealth of top-level, global business experience in the areas of... of the Secretary Renewal of Department of Defense Federal Advisory Committee; Defense Business Board... gives notice that it is renewing the charter for the Defense Business Board (hereafter referred to...

  11. Applying unmixing to gene expression data for tumor phylogeny inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shackney Stanley E

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background While in principle a seemingly infinite variety of combinations of mutations could result in tumor development, in practice it appears that most human cancers fall into a relatively small number of "sub-types," each characterized a roughly equivalent sequence of mutations by which it progresses in different patients. There is currently great interest in identifying the common sub-types and applying them to the development of diagnostics or therapeutics. Phylogenetic methods have shown great promise for inferring common patterns of tumor progression, but suffer from limits of the technologies available for assaying differences between and within tumors. One approach to tumor phylogenetics uses differences between single cells within tumors, gaining valuable information about intra-tumor heterogeneity but allowing only a few markers per cell. An alternative approach uses tissue-wide measures of whole tumors to provide a detailed picture of averaged tumor state but at the cost of losing information about intra-tumor heterogeneity. Results The present work applies "unmixing" methods, which separate complex data sets into combinations of simpler components, to attempt to gain advantages of both tissue-wide and single-cell approaches to cancer phylogenetics. We develop an unmixing method to infer recurring cell states from microarray measurements of tumor populations and use the inferred mixtures of states in individual tumors to identify possible evolutionary relationships among tumor cells. Validation on simulated data shows the method can accurately separate small numbers of cell states and infer phylogenetic relationships among them. Application to a lung cancer dataset shows that the method can identify cell states corresponding to common lung tumor types and suggest possible evolutionary relationships among them that show good correspondence with our current understanding of lung tumor development. Conclusions Unmixing

  12. 75 FR 15695 - Renewal of Department of Defense Federal Advisory Committee; Board of Visitors National Defense...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-30

    ... Defense gives notice that it is renewing the charter for the Board of Visitors National Defense University (hereafter referred to as the Board). FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Jim Freeman, Deputy Committee... of the Secretary Renewal of Department of Defense Federal Advisory Committee; Board of...

  13. 75 FR 13093 - Renewal of Department of Defense Federal Advisory Committee; Defense Acquisition University Board...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-18

    ... University Board of Visitors AGENCY: Department of Defense (DoD). ACTION: Renewal of Federal advisory... amended), and 41 CFR 102-3.50(c), the Department of Defense gives notice that it is renewing the charter for the Defense Acquisition University Board of Visitors (hereafter referred to as the Board)....

  14. Likelihood inference for unions of interacting discs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jesper; Helisova, K.

    2010-01-01

    with respect to a given marked Poisson model (i.e. a Boolean model). We show how edge effects and other complications can be handled by considering a certain conditional likelihood. Our methodology is illustrated by analysing Peter Diggle's heather data set, where we discuss the results of simulation......This is probably the first paper which discusses likelihood inference for a random set using a germ-grain model, where the individual grains are unobservable, edge effects occur and other complications appear. We consider the case where the grains form a disc process modelled by a marked point......-based maximum likelihood inference and the effect of specifying different reference Poisson models....

  15. Variational Bayesian Inference of Line Spectra

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Badiu, Mihai Alin; Hansen, Thomas Lundgaard; Fleury, Bernard Henri

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we address the fundamental problem of line spectral estimation in a Bayesian framework. We target model order and parameter estimation via variational inference in a probabilistic model in which the frequencies are continuous-valued, i.e., not restricted to a grid; and the coeffici......In this paper, we address the fundamental problem of line spectral estimation in a Bayesian framework. We target model order and parameter estimation via variational inference in a probabilistic model in which the frequencies are continuous-valued, i.e., not restricted to a grid...

  16. Statistical Inference for Partially Observed Diffusion Processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Anders Christian

    -dimensional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck where one coordinate is completely unobserved. This model does not have the Markov property and it makes parameter inference more complicated. Next we take a Bayesian approach and introduce some basic Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. In chapter ve and six we describe an Bayesian method...... to perform parameter inference in multivariate diffusion models that may be only partially observed. The methodology is applied to the stochastic FitzHugh-Nagumo model and the two-dimensional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Chapter seven focus on parameter identifiability in the aprtially observed Ornstein...

  17. Improving the extraction of complex regulatory events from scientific text by using ontology-based inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kim Jung-jae

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The extraction of complex events from biomedical text is a challenging task and requires in-depth semantic analysis. Previous approaches associate lexical and syntactic resources with ontologies for the semantic analysis, but fall short in testing the benefits from the use of domain knowledge. Results We developed a system that deduces implicit events from explicitly expressed events by using inference rules that encode domain knowledge. We evaluated the system with the inference module on three tasks: First, when tested against a corpus with manually annotated events, the inference module of our system contributes 53.2% of correct extractions, but does not cause any incorrect results. Second, the system overall reproduces 33.1% of the transcription regulatory events contained in RegulonDB (up to 85.0% precision and the inference module is required for 93.8% of the reproduced events. Third, we applied the system with minimum adaptations to the identification of cell activity regulation events, confirming that the inference improves the performance of the system also on this task. Conclusions Our research shows that the inference based on domain knowledge plays a significant role in extracting complex events from text. This approach has great potential in recognizing the complex concepts of such biomedical ontologies as Gene Ontology in the literature.

  18. Risk Management Programs for Defense Acquisition Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-11-02

    The audit objective was to evaluate the effectiveness of risk management programs for Defense acquisition systems. Specifically, we determined whether DoD risk management policies and procedures for Defense acquisition systems were effectively implemented and what impact risk management programs bad on reducing program risks and costs. We also reviewed management controls as they applied to the audit objectives.

  19. Protecting the Self: Defense Mechanisms in Action

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cramer, Phebe

    2006-01-01

    Integrating theory, research, and practical applications, this book provides a comprehensive examination of defense mechanisms and their role in both normal development and psychopathology. The author describes how children and adults mobilize specific kinds of defenses to maintain their psychological equilibrium and preserve self-esteem,…

  20. U.S. Cybersecurity Defense Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-01

    Computer Network Defense ( CND ) actions to include “protecting, monitoring, analyzing, detecting, and responding to unauthorized activity within...such as computer network defense ( CND ), computer network exploitation (CNE), and computer network attack (CNA).38 In this capacity, the institution

  1. Takedown Defenses of Russian Systema

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin R. Secours

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The continuing popularity of mixed martial arts (MMA events has motivated many martial artists to cross train in grappling disciplines. While largely beneficial for the arts as a whole, many practitioners have nevertheless integrated grappling strategies without considering whether or not their applications are simply sportive or appropriate for self-defense tactics. In this article, I will examine some historical perspectives on the role of grappling on the battlefield from published literature and consider the evidence left to us through historical texts and artwork. Based on over 20 years experience in the grappling arts, I will attempt to show that ground fighting and grappling are necessary components of a complete tactical arsenal, while carefully illustrating the difference in street tactics. I will place specific emphasis on the role of defending the takedown in a modern survival scenario, giving particular attention to the approach employed by the Russian art of Systema.

  2. Arabidopsis phospholipase Dδ is involved in basal defense and nonhost resistance to powdery mildew fungi

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinosa, Francesco; Buhot, Nathalie; Kwaaitaal, Mark Adrianus Cornelis J

    2013-01-01

    Plants have evolved a complex array of defensive responses against pathogenic microorganisms. Recognition of microbes initiates signaling cascades that activate plant defenses. The membrane lipid phosphatidic acid, produced by phospholipase D (PLD), has been shown to take part in both abiotic...... and biotic stress signaling. In this study, the involvement of PLD in the interaction between Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana) and the barley powdery mildew fungus Blumeria graminis f. sp. hordei (Bgh) was investigated. This nonadapted pathogen is normally resisted by a cell wall-based defense, which stops....... In conclusion, we propose that PLD is involved in defense signaling in nonhost resistance against powdery mildew fungi and put PLDδ forward as the main isoform participating in this process....

  3. Physics of a ballistic missile defense - The chemical laser boost-phase defense

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grabbe, Crockett L.

    1988-01-01

    The basic physics involved in proposals to use a chemical laser based on satellites for a boost-phase defense are investigated. After a brief consideration of simple physical conditions for the defense, a calculation of an equation for the number of satellites needed for the defense is made along with some typical values of this for possible future conditions for the defense. Basic energy and power requirements for the defense are determined. A sumary is made of probable minimum conditions that must be achieved for laser power, targeting accuracy, number of satellites, and total sources for power needed.

  4. Application of passive defense in urban housing planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Kamran

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Extended abstract1-IntroductionToday, with advances in the technology of weapons and military equipment, urban areas are most at risk of invasion. Among the most important factors in enhancing human casualties in military attacks on urban areas, one can point to the unrealistic architecture of houses which does not conform to principles such as optimal site selection and layout of the structure of human settlements, proper distribution, principles of concealment, camouflage and deception, the high degree of vulnerability of buildings and interior architecture of buildings with regard to passive defense. Structural arrangement of spaces and their connection with surrounding areas has created great opportunities for saving lives And improves system performance and reduces its vulnerability. This study with a descriptive-qualitative approach, investigates the role of passive defense in urban housing planning and the conclusions are used to create safe city, strong city and deterrent city. Results show that determining the geometric design of house, pop location, availability and predictability of secure spaces are regarded as multi-functional space for each building in times of peace and war are among the optimal components of building architecture and vernacular architecture from the perspective of a passive defense.Crises, threats and disasters are classified into two main categories: natural, including earthquakes, floods, landslides, droughts and human category such as war, accidents and diseases which are more than 50 types. The main objective of this study is investigating crisis caused by war in residential areas. In the full-scale military conflicts, one of the ultimate goals of the parties involved is making an effort to bring the breadth and scope of the battlefield to civilian centers especially to urban centers, which is usually accompanied by heavy air strikes. This act is one of the most effective strategies in the fate of wars

  5. Inference making ability and the function of inferences in reading comprehension

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salih Özenici

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to explain the relation between reading comprehension and inference. The main target of reading process is to create a coherent mental representation of the text, therefore it is necessary to recognize relations between different parts of the texts and to relate them to one another. During reading process, to complete the missing information in the text or to add new information is necessary. All these processes require inference making ability beyond the information in the text. When the readers use such active reading strategies as monitoring the comprehension, prediction, inferring and background knowledge, they learn a lot more from the text and understand it better. In reading comprehension, making inference is a constructive thinking process, because it is a cognitive process in order to form the meaning. When reading comprehension models are considered, it can be easily seen that linguistics elements cannot explain these processes by themselves, therefore the ability of thinking and inference making is needed. During reading process, general world knowledge is necessary to form coherent relations between sentences. Information which comes from context of the text will not be adequate to understand the text. In order to overcome this deficiency and to integrate the meanings from different sentences witch each other, it is necessary to make inference. Readers make inference in order to completely understand what the writer means, to interpret the sentences and also to form the combinations and relations between them.

  6. Inference making ability and the function of inferences in reading comprehension

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salih Özenici

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to explain the relation of reading comprehension and inference. The main target of reading process is to create a coherent mental representation of the text, therefore it is necessary to recognize relations between different parts of the texts and to relate them to one another. During reading process, to complete the missing information in the text or to add new information is necessary. All these processes require inference making ability beyond the information in the text. When the readers use such active reading strategies as monitoring the comprehension, prediction, inferring and background knowledge, they learn a lot more from the text and understand it better. In reading comprehension, making inference is a constructive thinking process, because it is a cognitive process in order to form the meaning. When reading comprehension models are considered, it can be easily seen that linguistics elements cannot explain these processes by themselves, therefore the ability of thinking and inference making is needed. During reading process, general world knowledge is necessary to form coherent relations between sentences. Information which comes from context of the text will not be adequate to understand the text. In order to overcome this deficiency and to integrate the meanings from different sentences witch each other, it is necessary to make inference. Readers make inference in order to completely understand what the writer means, to interpret the sentences and also to form the combinations and relations between them.

  7. Defensive externality and blame projection following failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hochreich, D J

    1975-09-01

    This study focuses upon the relationship between internal-external control and defensive blame projection. Trust was used as a moderator variable for making differential predictions concerning the behavior of two subgroups of externals: defensive externals, whose externality is presumed to reflect primarily a verbal technique of defense, and congruent externals, whose externality reflects a more genuine belief that most outcomes are determined by forces beyond their personal control. As predicted, defensive externals showed a stronger tendency than did congruent externals and internals to resort to blame projection following failure at an achievement task. There were no group differences in attribution following task success. Defensive externals were found to be more responsive to negative feedback than were congruent externals.

  8. Primitive defenses: cognitive aspects and therapeutic handling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groh, L S

    In this paper the primitive defenses first described by Melanie Klein under the label of "schizoid mechanisms" are examined. The defenses considered are splitting the pathological uses of identification and projective identification, and the psychotic forms of denial. This examination is twofold: (1) the cognitive aspects of these defenses as described in terms of concepts developed by Jean Piaget; (2) concrete examples of the operation of these defenses during the treatment of schizophrenic patients are given and the effects of interventions based on the cognitive analysis are described. It is stressed that at times interventions, such as interpretation and confrontation, based on cognitive analysis, can temporarily and in some instances even permanently stop the operation of these defenses, allowing emotionally meaningful material to emerge which expedites the therapeutic process.

  9. Immune defense in leaf-cutting ants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Armitage, Sophie A O; Broch, Jens F; Marín, Hermogenes Fernández

    2011-01-01

    To ameliorate the impact of disease, social insects combine individual innate immune defenses with collective social defenses. This implies that there are different levels of selection acting on investment in immunity, each with their own trade-offs. We present the results of a cross...... both individual innate immunity (constitutive antibacterial activity) and the size of the metapleural gland, which secretes antimicrobial compounds and functions in individual and social defense, indicating multiple mating could have important consequences for both defense types. However, the primarily...... for this pattern would be co-adaptation between host colonies and their vertically transmitted mutualist. These results illustrate the complexity of the selection pressures that affect the expression of multilevel immune defenses....

  10. Defense Science Board Summer Study on Autonomy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-01

    Autonomy completed  its information gathering in August 2015. The report was cleared for open  publication by the DoD Office of  Security  Review on June 1...operation  CRASH  Clean‐Slate Design of Resilient, Adaptive,  Secure  Hosts  DARPA  Defense Advanced Research and Projects Agency  DCA  defensive counter air...DIA  Defense Intelligence Agency  DISA  Defense Information Systems Agency  DLA  Defense Logistics Agency  DNS   domain name service  DoD  Department

  11. ROMANIAN DEFENSE RESOURCES MANAGEMENT UNDER CRISIS CONDITIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iulian N. BUJOREANU

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Defense resources management is a harder field to deal with in economic and social crisis conditions. It is not under war but peace conditions and one has to understand it as if it were under war conditions. The paper introduces the reader to the possible type of approach and factors to be considered when developing strategies and implementing directives in time of peace with a consideration of resources as if it war in time of war. Risk analysis is of outmost importance in dealing with resource allocation in time of crisis, and directions to it are proposed here. Also, a different view of the chain of command in the hierarchy and its role in crisis time, responsibilities and attributes one should fulfill in the decision-making process for the reason of efficiency and effectiveness in the military field. Finally, a round-up conclusion brings us to the question if anything can be done without the political factor involved and which type of involvement it should be.

  12. Understanding COBOL systems using inferred types

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. van Deursen (Arie); L.M.F. Moonen (Leon)

    1999-01-01

    textabstractIn a typical COBOL program, the data division consists of 50 of the lines of code. Automatic type inference can help to understand the large collections of variable declarations contained therein, showing how variables are related based on their actual usage. The most problematic aspect

  13. John Updike and Norman Mailer: Sport Inferences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Upshaw, Kathryn Jane

    The phenomenon of writer use of sport inferences in the literary genre of the novel is examined in the works of Updike and Mailer. Novels of both authors were reviewed in order to study the pattern of usage in each novel. From these patterns, concepts which illustrated the sport philosophies of each author were used for general comparisons of the…

  14. HIERARCHICAL PROBABILISTIC INFERENCE OF COSMIC SHEAR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schneider, Michael D.; Dawson, William A. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA 94551 (United States); Hogg, David W. [Center for Cosmology and Particle Physics, New York University, New York, NY 10003 (United States); Marshall, Philip J.; Bard, Deborah J. [SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory, Menlo Park, CA 94025 (United States); Meyers, Joshua [Kavli Institute for Particle Astrophysics and Cosmology, Stanford University, 452 Lomita Mall, Stanford, CA 94035 (United States); Lang, Dustin, E-mail: schneider42@llnl.gov [Department of Physics, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 (United States)

    2015-07-01

    Point estimators for the shearing of galaxy images induced by gravitational lensing involve a complex inverse problem in the presence of noise, pixelization, and model uncertainties. We present a probabilistic forward modeling approach to gravitational lensing inference that has the potential to mitigate the biased inferences in most common point estimators and is practical for upcoming lensing surveys. The first part of our statistical framework requires specification of a likelihood function for the pixel data in an imaging survey given parameterized models for the galaxies in the images. We derive the lensing shear posterior by marginalizing over all intrinsic galaxy properties that contribute to the pixel data (i.e., not limited to galaxy ellipticities) and learn the distributions for the intrinsic galaxy properties via hierarchical inference with a suitably flexible conditional probabilitiy distribution specification. We use importance sampling to separate the modeling of small imaging areas from the global shear inference, thereby rendering our algorithm computationally tractable for large surveys. With simple numerical examples we demonstrate the improvements in accuracy from our importance sampling approach, as well as the significance of the conditional distribution specification for the intrinsic galaxy properties when the data are generated from an unknown number of distinct galaxy populations with different morphological characteristics.

  15. Inferring Internet Denial-of-Service Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-11-02

    Inferring Internet Denial-of-Service Activity David Moore CAIDA San Diego Supercomputer Center University of California, San Diego dmoore@caida.org...the local network topology. kc claffy and Colleen Shannon at CAIDA provided support and valuable feed- back throughout the project. David Wetherall

  16. GAMBIT: Global And Modular BSM Inference Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    GAMBIT Collaboration; Athron, Peter; Balazs, Csaba; Bringmann, Torsten; Buckley, Andy; Chrzä Szcz, Marcin; Conrad, Jan; Cornell, Jonathan M.; Dal, Lars A.; Dickinson, Hugh; Edsjö, Joakim; Farmer, Ben; Jackson, Paul; Krislock, Abram; Kvellestad, Anders; Lundberg, Johan; McKay, James; Mahmoudi, Farvah; Martinez, Gregory D.; Putze, Antje Raklev, Are; Ripken, Joachim; Rogan, Christopher; Saavedra, Aldo; Savage, Christopher; Scott, Pat; Seo, Seon-Hee; Serra, Nicola; Weniger, Christoph; White, Martin; Wild, Sebastian

    2017-08-01

    GAMBIT (Global And Modular BSM Inference Tool) performs statistical global fits of generic physics models using a wide range of particle physics and astrophysics data. Modules provide native simulations of collider and astrophysics experiments, a flexible system for interfacing external codes (the backend system), a fully featured statistical and parameter scanning framework, and additional tools for implementing and using hierarchical models.

  17. Linguistic Markers of Inference Generation While Reading

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clinton, Virginia; Carlson, Sarah E.; Seipel, Ben

    2016-01-01

    Words can be informative linguistic markers of psychological constructs. The purpose of this study is to examine associations between word use and the process of making meaningful connections to a text while reading (i.e., inference generation). To achieve this purpose, think-aloud data from third-fifth grade students (N = 218) reading narrative…

  18. New Inference Rules for Max-SAT

    CERN Document Server

    Li, C M; Planes, J; 10.1613/jair.2215

    2011-01-01

    Exact Max-SAT solvers, compared with SAT solvers, apply little inference at each node of the proof tree. Commonly used SAT inference rules like unit propagation produce a simplified formula that preserves satisfiability but, unfortunately, solving the Max-SAT problem for the simplified formula is not equivalent to solving it for the original formula. In this paper, we define a number of original inference rules that, besides being applied efficiently, transform Max-SAT instances into equivalent Max-SAT instances which are easier to solve. The soundness of the rules, that can be seen as refinements of unit resolution adapted to Max-SAT, are proved in a novel and simple way via an integer programming transformation. With the aim of finding out how powerful the inference rules are in practice, we have developed a new Max-SAT solver, called MaxSatz, which incorporates those rules, and performed an experimental investigation. The results provide empirical evidence that MaxSatz is very competitive, at least, on ran...

  19. Ignorability in Statistical and Probabilistic Inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jaeger, Manfred

    2005-01-01

    When dealing with incomplete data in statistical learning, or incomplete observations in probabilistic inference, one needs to distinguish the fact that a certain event is observed from the fact that the observed event has happened. Since the modeling and computational complexities entailed...

  20. Nonparametric Bayes inference for concave distribution functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Martin Bøgsted; Lauritzen, Steffen Lilholt

    2002-01-01

    Bayesian inference for concave distribution functions is investigated. This is made by transforming a mixture of Dirichlet processes on the space of distribution functions to the space of concave distribution functions. We give a method for sampling from the posterior distribution using a Pólya urn...

  1. Campbell's and Rubin's Perspectives on Causal Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, Stephen G.; Thoemmes, Felix

    2010-01-01

    Donald Campbell's approach to causal inference (D. T. Campbell, 1957; W. R. Shadish, T. D. Cook, & D. T. Campbell, 2002) is widely used in psychology and education, whereas Donald Rubin's causal model (P. W. Holland, 1986; D. B. Rubin, 1974, 2005) is widely used in economics, statistics, medicine, and public health. Campbell's approach focuses on…

  2. Decision generation tools and Bayesian inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jannson, Tomasz; Wang, Wenjian; Forrester, Thomas; Kostrzewski, Andrew; Veeris, Christian; Nielsen, Thomas

    2014-05-01

    Digital Decision Generation (DDG) tools are important software sub-systems of Command and Control (C2) systems and technologies. In this paper, we present a special type of DDGs based on Bayesian Inference, related to adverse (hostile) networks, including such important applications as terrorism-related networks and organized crime ones.

  3. Campbell's and Rubin's Perspectives on Causal Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, Stephen G.; Thoemmes, Felix

    2010-01-01

    Donald Campbell's approach to causal inference (D. T. Campbell, 1957; W. R. Shadish, T. D. Cook, & D. T. Campbell, 2002) is widely used in psychology and education, whereas Donald Rubin's causal model (P. W. Holland, 1986; D. B. Rubin, 1974, 2005) is widely used in economics, statistics, medicine, and public health. Campbell's approach focuses on…

  4. "Comments on Slavin": Synthesizing Causal Inferences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briggs, Derek C.

    2008-01-01

    When causal inferences are to be synthesized across multiple studies, efforts to establish the magnitude of a causal effect should be balanced by an effort to evaluate the generalizability of the effect. The evaluation of generalizability depends on two factors that are given little attention in current syntheses: construct validity and external…

  5. On Measurement Bias in Causal Inference

    CERN Document Server

    Pearl, Judea

    2012-01-01

    This paper addresses the problem of measurement errors in causal inference and highlights several algebraic and graphical methods for eliminating systematic bias induced by such errors. In particulars, the paper discusses the control of partially observable confounders in parametric and non parametric models and the computational problem of obtaining bias-free effect estimates in such models.

  6. Evolutionary inference via the Poisson Indel Process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouchard-Côté, Alexandre; Jordan, Michael I

    2013-01-22

    We address the problem of the joint statistical inference of phylogenetic trees and multiple sequence alignments from unaligned molecular sequences. This problem is generally formulated in terms of string-valued evolutionary processes along the branches of a phylogenetic tree. The classic evolutionary process, the TKF91 model [Thorne JL, Kishino H, Felsenstein J (1991) J Mol Evol 33(2):114-124] is a continuous-time Markov chain model composed of insertion, deletion, and substitution events. Unfortunately, this model gives rise to an intractable computational problem: The computation of the marginal likelihood under the TKF91 model is exponential in the number of taxa. In this work, we present a stochastic process, the Poisson Indel Process (PIP), in which the complexity of this computation is reduced to linear. The Poisson Indel Process is closely related to the TKF91 model, differing only in its treatment of insertions, but it has a global characterization as a Poisson process on the phylogeny. Standard results for Poisson processes allow key computations to be decoupled, which yields the favorable computational profile of inference under the PIP model. We present illustrative experiments in which Bayesian inference under the PIP model is compared with separate inference of phylogenies and alignments.

  7. Making statistical inferences about software reliability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Douglas R.

    1988-01-01

    Failure times of software undergoing random debugging can be modelled as order statistics of independent but nonidentically distributed exponential random variables. Using this model inferences can be made about current reliability and, if debugging continues, future reliability. This model also shows the difficulty inherent in statistical verification of very highly reliable software such as that used by digital avionics in commercial aircraft.

  8. Spurious correlations and inference in landscape genetics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samuel A. Cushman; Erin L. Landguth

    2010-01-01

    Reliable interpretation of landscape genetic analyses depends on statistical methods that have high power to identify the correct process driving gene flow while rejecting incorrect alternative hypotheses. Little is known about statistical power and inference in individual-based landscape genetics. Our objective was to evaluate the power of causalmodelling with partial...

  9. Understanding COBOL systems using inferred types

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Deursen, A. van; Moonen, L.M.F.

    1999-01-01

    In a typical COBOL program, the data division consists of 50 of the lines of code. Automatic type inference can help to understand the large collections of variable declarations contained therein, showing how variables are related based on their actual usage. The most problematic aspect of type infe

  10. Double jeopardy in inferring cognitive processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fific, Mario

    2014-01-01

    Inferences we make about underlying cognitive processes can be jeopardized in two ways due to problematic forms of aggregation. First, averaging across individuals is typically considered a very useful tool for removing random variability. The threat is that averaging across subjects leads to averaging across different cognitive strategies, thus harming our inferences. The second threat comes from the construction of inadequate research designs possessing a low diagnostic accuracy of cognitive processes. For that reason we introduced the systems factorial technology (SFT), which has primarily been designed to make inferences about underlying processing order (serial, parallel, coactive), stopping rule (terminating, exhaustive), and process dependency. SFT proposes that the minimal research design complexity to learn about n number of cognitive processes should be equal to 2 (n) . In addition, SFT proposes that (a) each cognitive process should be controlled by a separate experimental factor, and (b) The saliency levels of all factors should be combined in a full factorial design. In the current study, the author cross combined the levels of jeopardies in a 2 × 2 analysis, leading to four different analysis conditions. The results indicate a decline in the diagnostic accuracy of inferences made about cognitive processes due to the presence of each jeopardy in isolation and when combined. The results warrant the development of more individual subject analyses and the utilization of full-factorial (SFT) experimental designs.

  11. Tactile length contraction as Bayesian inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, Jonathan; Ngo, Vy; Goldreich, Daniel

    2016-08-01

    To perceive, the brain must interpret stimulus-evoked neural activity. This is challenging: The stochastic nature of the neural response renders its interpretation inherently uncertain. Perception would be optimized if the brain used Bayesian inference to interpret inputs in light of expectations derived from experience. Bayesian inference would improve perception on average but cause illusions when stimuli violate expectation. Intriguingly, tactile, auditory, and visual perception are all prone to length contraction illusions, characterized by the dramatic underestimation of the distance between punctate stimuli delivered in rapid succession; the origin of these illusions has been mysterious. We previously proposed that length contraction illusions occur because the brain interprets punctate stimulus sequences using Bayesian inference with a low-velocity expectation. A novel prediction of our Bayesian observer model is that length contraction should intensify if stimuli are made more difficult to localize. Here we report a tactile psychophysical study that tested this prediction. Twenty humans compared two distances on the forearm: a fixed reference distance defined by two taps with 1-s temporal separation and an adjustable comparison distance defined by two taps with temporal separation t ≤ 1 s. We observed significant length contraction: As t was decreased, participants perceived the two distances as equal only when the comparison distance was made progressively greater than the reference distance. Furthermore, the use of weaker taps significantly enhanced participants' length contraction. These findings confirm the model's predictions, supporting the view that the spatiotemporal percept is a best estimate resulting from a Bayesian inference process.

  12. Colligation or, The Logical Inference of Interconnection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Franksen, Ole Immanuel; Falster, Peter

    2000-01-01

    laws or assumptions. Yet interconnection as an abstract concept seems to be without scientific underpinning in oure logic. Adopting a historical viewpoint, our aim is to show that the reasoning of interconnection may be identified with a neglected kind of logical inference, called "colligation...

  13. Inferring comprehensible business/ICT alignment rules

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cumps, B.; Martens, D.; De Backer, M.; Haesen, R.; Viaene, S.; Dedene, G.; Baesens, B.; Snoeck, M.

    2009-01-01

    We inferred business rules for business/ICT alignment by applying a novel rule induction algorithm on a data set containing rich alignment information polled from 641 organisations in 7 European countries. The alignment rule set was created using AntMiner+, a rule induction technique with a reputati

  14. Quasi-Experimental Designs for Causal Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Yongnam; Steiner, Peter

    2016-01-01

    When randomized experiments are infeasible, quasi-experimental designs can be exploited to evaluate causal treatment effects. The strongest quasi-experimental designs for causal inference are regression discontinuity designs, instrumental variable designs, matching and propensity score designs, and comparative interrupted time series designs. This…

  15. How to Make Inference in Reading

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    何少芳

    2013-01-01

    Students often have difficulties in reading comprehension because of too many new and unfamiliar words, too little background knowledge and different patterns of thinking among different countries. In this thesis, I recommend applying context clues, synonyms or antonyms, examples, definitions or explanations, cause/effect clues and background clues to make inference when we read texts.

  16. Investigating Mathematics Teachers' Thoughts of Statistical Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Kai-Lin

    2012-01-01

    Research on statistical cognition and application suggests that statistical inference concepts are commonly misunderstood by students and even misinterpreted by researchers. Although some research has been done on students' misunderstanding or misconceptions of confidence intervals (CIs), few studies explore either students' or mathematics…

  17. Non-Parametric Inference in Astrophysics

    CERN Document Server

    Wasserman, L H; Nichol, R C; Genovese, C; Jang, W; Connolly, A J; Moore, A W; Schneider, J; Wasserman, Larry; Miller, Christopher J.; Nichol, Robert C.; Genovese, Chris; Jang, Woncheol; Connolly, Andrew J.; Moore, Andrew W.; Schneider, Jeff; group, the PICA

    2001-01-01

    We discuss non-parametric density estimation and regression for astrophysics problems. In particular, we show how to compute non-parametric confidence intervals for the location and size of peaks of a function. We illustrate these ideas with recent data on the Cosmic Microwave Background. We also briefly discuss non-parametric Bayesian inference.

  18. The importance of learning when making inferences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorg Rieskamp

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available The assumption that people possess a repertoire of strategies to solve the inference problems they face has been made repeatedly. The experimental findings of two previous studies on strategy selection are reexamined from a learning perspective, which argues that people learn to select strategies for making probabilistic inferences. This learning process is modeled with the strategy selection learning (SSL theory, which assumes that people develop subjective expectancies for the strategies they have. They select strategies proportional to their expectancies, which are updated on the basis of experience. For the study by Newell, Weston, and Shanks (2003 it can be shown that people did not anticipate the success of a strategy from the beginning of the experiment. Instead, the behavior observed at the end of the experiment was the result of a learning process that can be described by the SSL theory. For the second study, by Br"oder and Schiffer (2006, the SSL theory is able to provide an explanation for why participants only slowly adapted to new environments in a dynamic inference situation. The reanalysis of the previous studies illustrates the importance of learning for probabilistic inferences.

  19. Active interoceptive inference and the emotional brain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friston, Karl J.

    2016-01-01

    We review a recent shift in conceptions of interoception and its relationship to hierarchical inference in the brain. The notion of interoceptive inference means that bodily states are regulated by autonomic reflexes that are enslaved by descending predictions from deep generative models of our internal and external milieu. This re-conceptualization illuminates several issues in cognitive and clinical neuroscience with implications for experiences of selfhood and emotion. We first contextualize interoception in terms of active (Bayesian) inference in the brain, highlighting its enactivist (embodied) aspects. We then consider the key role of uncertainty or precision and how this might translate into neuromodulation. We next examine the implications for understanding the functional anatomy of the emotional brain, surveying recent observations on agranular cortex. Finally, we turn to theoretical issues, namely, the role of interoception in shaping a sense of embodied self and feelings. We will draw links between physiological homoeostasis and allostasis, early cybernetic ideas of predictive control and hierarchical generative models in predictive processing. The explanatory scope of interoceptive inference ranges from explanations for autism and depression, through to consciousness. We offer a brief survey of these exciting developments. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Interoception beyond homeostasis: affect, cognition and mental health’. PMID:28080966

  20. Bayesian structural inference for hidden processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strelioff, Christopher C; Crutchfield, James P

    2014-04-01

    We introduce a Bayesian approach to discovering patterns in structurally complex processes. The proposed method of Bayesian structural inference (BSI) relies on a set of candidate unifilar hidden Markov model (uHMM) topologies for inference of process structure from a data series. We employ a recently developed exact enumeration of topological ε-machines. (A sequel then removes the topological restriction.) This subset of the uHMM topologies has the added benefit that inferred models are guaranteed to be ε-machines, irrespective of estimated transition probabilities. Properties of ε-machines and uHMMs allow for the derivation of analytic expressions for estimating transition probabilities, inferring start states, and comparing the posterior probability of candidate model topologies, despite process internal structure being only indirectly present in data. We demonstrate BSI's effectiveness in estimating a process's randomness, as reflected by the Shannon entropy rate, and its structure, as quantified by the statistical complexity. We also compare using the posterior distribution over candidate models and the single, maximum a posteriori model for point estimation and show that the former more accurately reflects uncertainty in estimated values. We apply BSI to in-class examples of finite- and infinite-order Markov processes, as well to an out-of-class, infinite-state hidden process.

  1. Inference and the Introductory Statistics Course

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfannkuch, Maxine; Regan, Matt; Wild, Chris; Budgett, Stephanie; Forbes, Sharleen; Harraway, John; Parsonage, Ross

    2011-01-01

    This article sets out some of the rationale and arguments for making major changes to the teaching and learning of statistical inference in introductory courses at our universities by changing from a norm-based, mathematical approach to more conceptually accessible computer-based approaches. The core problem of the inferential argument with its…

  2. Optimal defense strategy: storage vs. new production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shudo, Emi; Iwasa, Yoh

    2002-12-07

    If hosts produce defense proteins after they are infected by pathogens, it may take hours to days before defense becomes fully active. By producing defense proteins beforehand, and storing them until infection, the host can cope with pathogens with a short time delay. However, producing and storing defense proteins require energy, and the activated defense proteins often cause harm to the host's body as well as to pathogens. Here, we study the optimal strategy for a host who chooses the amount of stored defense proteins, the activation of the stored proteins upon infection, and the new production of the proteins. The optimal strategy is the one that minimizes the sum of the harm by pathogens and the cost of defense. The host chooses the storage size of defense proteins based on the probability distribution of the magnitude of pathogen infection. When the infection size is predictable, all the stored proteins are to be activated upon infection. The optimal strategy is to have no storage and to rely entirely on new production if the expected infection size n(0) is small, but to have a big storage without new production if n(0) is large. The transition from the "new production" phase to "storage" phase occurs at a smaller n(0) when storage cost is small, activation cost is large, pathogen toxicity is large, pathogen growth is fast, the defense is effective, the delay is long, and the infection is more likely. On the other hand, the storage size to produce for a large n(0) decreases with three cost parameters and the defense effectiveness, increases with the likelihood of infection, the toxicity and the growth rate of pathogens, and it is independent of the time delay. When infection size is much smaller than the expected size, some of the stored proteins may stay unused.

  3. Investment in defense and cost of predator-induced defense along a resource gradient

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Steiner, Uli

    2007-01-01

    An organism's investment in different traits to reduce predation is determined by the fitness benefit of the defense relative to the fitness costs associated with the allocation of time and resources to the defense. Inherent tradeoffs in time and resource allocation should result in differential...... investment in defense along a resource gradient, but competing models predict different patterns of investment. There are currently insufficient empirical data on changes in investment in defensive traits or their costs along resource gradients to differentiate between the competing allocation models....... In this study, I exposed tadpoles to caged predators along a resource gradient in order to estimate investment in defense and costs of defense by assessing predator-induced plasticity. Induced defenses included increased tail depth, reduced feeding, and reduced swimming activity; costs associated...

  4. PAnalyzer: A software tool for protein inference in shotgun proteomics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prieto Gorka

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Protein inference from peptide identifications in shotgun proteomics must deal with ambiguities that arise due to the presence of peptides shared between different proteins, which is common in higher eukaryotes. Recently data independent acquisition (DIA approaches have emerged as an alternative to the traditional data dependent acquisition (DDA in shotgun proteomics experiments. MSE is the term used to name one of the DIA approaches used in QTOF instruments. MSE data require specialized software to process acquired spectra and to perform peptide and protein identifications. However the software available at the moment does not group the identified proteins in a transparent way by taking into account peptide evidence categories. Furthermore the inspection, comparison and report of the obtained results require tedious manual intervention. Here we report a software tool to address these limitations for MSE data. Results In this paper we present PAnalyzer, a software tool focused on the protein inference process of shotgun proteomics. Our approach considers all the identified proteins and groups them when necessary indicating their confidence using different evidence categories. PAnalyzer can read protein identification files in the XML output format of the ProteinLynx Global Server (PLGS software provided by Waters Corporation for their MSE data, and also in the mzIdentML format recently standardized by HUPO-PSI. Multiple files can also be read simultaneously and are considered as technical replicates. Results are saved to CSV, HTML and mzIdentML (in the case of a single mzIdentML input file files. An MSE analysis of a real sample is presented to compare the results of PAnalyzer and ProteinLynx Global Server. Conclusions We present a software tool to deal with the ambiguities that arise in the protein inference process. Key contributions are support for MSE data analysis by ProteinLynx Global Server and technical replicates

  5. Markers of Antioxidant Defense in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Gawlik

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Aims. Diabetes is considered a state of increased oxidative stress. This study evaluates blood concentrations of selected markers of antioxidant defense in patients with type 2 diabetes. Methods. The study included 80 type 2 diabetes patients and 79 apparently healthy controls. Measured markers included ferric reducing ability of plasma (FRAP, reduced glutathione (GSH, glutathione peroxidase (GPx, glutathione reductase (GR, γ-glutamyltransferase (GGT and uric acid serum, and plasma and/or hemolysate levels. Results. FRAP, uric acid, CRP, and GGT levels were significantly higher in patients with diabetes. Plasma and hemolysate GR was significantly higher whereas GPx activity was significantly lower in patients with diabetes. There were no significant differences in antioxidant defense markers between patients with and without chronic diabetes complications. Fasting serum glucose correlated with plasma GPx, plasma and hemolysate GR, FRAP, and serum GGT, and HbA1c correlated with serum GGT. Only FRAP and serum uric acid were significantly higher in obese (BMI>30 kg/m2 patients with diabetes than in nonobese patients. Conclusions. Some components of antioxidant defense such as GR, uric acid, and GGT are increased in patients with type 2 diabetes. However, the whole system cannot compensate for an enhanced production of ROS as reflected by the trend toward decreased erythrocytes GSH.

  6. Differential activity of innate defense antimicrobial peptides against Nocardia species

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wagner Dirk

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Members of the genus Nocardia are ubiquitous environmental saprophytes capable to cause human pulmonary, disseminated and cutaneous nocardiosis or bovine mastitis. Innate immunity appears to play an important role in early defense against Nocardia species. To elucidate the contribution of antimicrobial peptides (AMPs in innate defense against Nocardia, the activity of human α-defensins human neutrophil peptides (HNPs 1-3, human β-defensin (hBD-3 and cathelicidin LL-37 as well as bovine β-defensins lingual and tracheal antimicrobial peptides (LAP, TAP and bovine neutrophil-derived indolicidin against four important Nocardia species was investigated. Results Whereas N. farcinica ATCC 3318 and N. nova ATCC 33726 were found to be susceptible to all investigated human and bovine AMPs, N. asteroides ATCC 19247 was killed exclusively by neutrophil-derived human α-defensins HNP 1-3 and bovine indolicidin. N. brasiliensis ATCC 19296 was found to exhibit complete resistance to investigated human AMPs and to be susceptible only to bovine indolicidin. Conclusion Selected AMPs are capable to contribute to the first line of defense against Nocardia, yet, susceptibility appears to vary across different Nocardia species. Obtained results of neutrophil-derived AMPs to possess the broadest antinocardial spectrum are remarkable, since nocardiosis is characterized by a neutrophil-rich infiltrate in vivo.

  7. Conclusions of the commission: property transfer of natural gas transport networks; Conclusions de la commission: transfert de propriete des reseaux de transport de gaz naturel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2002-05-01

    This document deals with the evolution of the avoidance of the natural gas transport allowances and their transfers modalities. The first part recalls the juridical, technical and economical situation and the european context taking into account by the commission in this project. The commission choices of the evaluation methods are then presented. The evaluations and the conclusions of the commission are presented in the last part. (A.L.B.)

  8. Comparison of evolutionary algorithms in gene regulatory network model inference.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    2010-01-01

    ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: The evolution of high throughput technologies that measure gene expression levels has created a data base for inferring GRNs (a process also known as reverse engineering of GRNs). However, the nature of these data has made this process very difficult. At the moment, several methods of discovering qualitative causal relationships between genes with high accuracy from microarray data exist, but large scale quantitative analysis on real biological datasets cannot be performed, to date, as existing approaches are not suitable for real microarray data which are noisy and insufficient. RESULTS: This paper performs an analysis of several existing evolutionary algorithms for quantitative gene regulatory network modelling. The aim is to present the techniques used and offer a comprehensive comparison of approaches, under a common framework. Algorithms are applied to both synthetic and real gene expression data from DNA microarrays, and ability to reproduce biological behaviour, scalability and robustness to noise are assessed and compared. CONCLUSIONS: Presented is a comparison framework for assessment of evolutionary algorithms, used to infer gene regulatory networks. Promising methods are identified and a platform for development of appropriate model formalisms is established.

  9. Inferring relationships between pairs of individuals from locus heterozygosities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Spinetti Isabella

    2002-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The traditional exact method for inferring relationships between individuals from genetic data is not easily applicable in all situations that may be encountered in several fields of applied genetics. This study describes an approach that gives affordable results and is easily applicable; it is based on the probabilities that two individuals share 0, 1 or both alleles at a locus identical by state. Results We show that these probabilities (zi depend on locus heterozygosity (H, and are scarcely affected by variation of the distribution of allele frequencies. This allows us to obtain empirical curves relating zi's to H for a series of common relationships, so that the likelihood ratio of a pair of relationships between any two individuals, given their genotypes at a locus, is a function of a single parameter, H. Application to large samples of mother-child and full-sib pairs shows that the statistical power of this method to infer the correct relationship is not much lower than the exact method. Analysis of a large database of STR data proves that locus heterozygosity does not vary significantly among Caucasian populations, apart from special cases, so that the likelihood ratio of the more common relationships between pairs of individuals may be obtained by looking at tabulated zi values. Conclusions A simple method is provided, which may be used by any scientist with the help of a calculator or a spreadsheet to compute the likelihood ratios of common alternative relationships between pairs of individuals.

  10. Granger causality vs. dynamic Bayesian network inference: a comparative study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feng Jianfeng

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In computational biology, one often faces the problem of deriving the causal relationship among different elements such as genes, proteins, metabolites, neurons and so on, based upon multi-dimensional temporal data. Currently, there are two common approaches used to explore the network structure among elements. One is the Granger causality approach, and the other is the dynamic Bayesian network inference approach. Both have at least a few thousand publications reported in the literature. A key issue is to choose which approach is used to tackle the data, in particular when they give rise to contradictory results. Results In this paper, we provide an answer by focusing on a systematic and computationally intensive comparison between the two approaches on both synthesized and experimental data. For synthesized data, a critical point of the data length is found: the dynamic Bayesian network outperforms the Granger causality approach when the data length is short, and vice versa. We then test our results in experimental data of short length which is a common scenario in current biological experiments: it is again confirmed that the dynamic Bayesian network works better. Conclusion When the data size is short, the dynamic Bayesian network inference performs better than the Granger causality approach; otherwise the Granger causality approach is better.

  11. G. F. Parrot and the theory of unconscious inferences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allik, Jüri; Konstabel, Kenn

    2005-01-01

    In 1839, Georg Friedrich Parrot (1767-1852) published a short note about a peculiar visual phenomenon--the diminishing of the size of external objects situated at a relatively small distance from the window of a fast-moving train. For the explanation of this illusion, Parrot proposed a concept of unconscious inferences, a very rapid syllogistic conclusion from two premises, which anticipated the revival of Alhazen's theory of unconscious inferences by Hermann von Helmholtz, Wilhelm Wundt, and John Stuart Mill. He also advanced the notion that the speed of mental processes is not infinitely high and that it can be measured by means of systematic experimentation. Although Parrot was only partly correct in the description of the movement-induced changes of the perceived size, his general intention to understand basic mechanisms of the human mind was in harmony with the founding ideas of experimental psychology: it is possible to study the phenomena of the mind in the same general way that the physical world is studied, either in terms of mechanical or mathematical laws. 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  12. Post-model selection inference and model averaging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georges Nguefack-Tsague

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Although model selection is routinely used in practice nowadays, little is known about its precise effects on any subsequent inference that is carried out. The same goes for the effects induced by the closely related technique of model averaging. This paper is concerned with the use of the same data first to select a model and then to carry out inference, in particular point estimation and point prediction. The properties of the resulting estimator, called a post-model-selection estimator (PMSE, are hard to derive. Using selection criteria such as hypothesis testing, AIC, BIC, HQ and Cp, we illustrate that, in terms of risk function, no single PMSE dominates the others. The same conclusion holds more generally for any penalised likelihood information criterion. We also compare various model averaging schemes and show that no single one dominates the others in terms of risk function. Since PMSEs can be regarded as a special case of model averaging, with 0-1 random-weights, we propose a connection between the two theories, in the frequentist approach, by taking account of the selection procedure when performing model averaging. We illustrate the point by simulating a simple linear regression model.

  13. 个体特质推论与行为推论的性别差异%Gender Differences in Characteristics of Trait Inferences and Behavior Inferences

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    闫春平; 申鲁军; 杜卫; 高红丽; 杨世昌

    2011-01-01

    Objective: To explore the gender differences in characteristics of trait inferences and behavior inferences.Methods: The experiment which used Maass' paradigm was carried out in 30 male and 34 female college students.Results: ①Male subjects' recognition accuracy of trait word was lower than female subjects' (P<0.001).②Male subjects' reaction time of trait word and behavior information was longer than female subjects' (P<0.001).③Male subjects' trait inferences were less than female subjects' (P<0.001).④Male subjects' reaction time of trait inferences was longer than female's (P<0.001).Conclusion: Females are better at trait inference than male,but there is no significant gender difference in behavior inference.%目的:探讨个体特质推论与行为推论的性别差异.方法:采用Maass等人提出的反应时研究范式对30名男大学生和34名女大学生进行实验研究.结果:①就信息再认正确率而言,男生对特质词的反应显著低于女生(P<0.001) ;②男生对特质词和行为信息的反应时均显著高于女生(P<0.001);③男生特质推论数量显著低于女生(P<0.001);④在反应时上,男生特质推论显著高于女生(P<0.001).结论:在特质推论方面女生好于男生,行为推论上二者没有差异.

  14. Defense Innovation and Industrialization in South Korea

    OpenAIRE

    Moon, Chung-in; Paek, Jae-Ok

    2010-01-01

    South Korea’s defense industrial transformation has been impressive by any standard. It was able to satisfy most of its basic weapons needs within a decade after launching its defense industry. Since the late 1990s, South Korea has been elevated from a third-tier arms producer to the second tier by moving from the stage of imitation and assembly to that of creative imitation and indigenization. It now competes with major arms-supplying countries. In addition, the South Korean defense...

  15. Strategies for Dealing with the Defense Budget

    Science.gov (United States)

    1983-08-17

    UNCLASSIFIED ItCUWIfV CUAWICATIOH O^ T>"» *»C« C.»lt— Omm gnt REPORT D0ajM6NTATI0N PAGE READ rNSTRUCTIO.NS OSFOPC COMWLETTNG FORM DSSW BOA ...documentation. \\ STRATEGIES FOR DEALING WITH THE DEFENSE BUDGET for Defense Systems Management College DSSW BOA No. MDA 903-82-G-0047 BOOZ ALLEN...Frisch, Franz A. and Acker, David D., "Financing Defense System Programs," Concepts (J. Def. Sys. Acq. Mgmt.), Vol. 4, No. 4, Autumn 1981, pp. 7

  16. The French Defense and Foreign Policies: Rwanda Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-25

    Approved: 1~( ::Z.. ~ { V \\ Date:),_ s--- n ?/ c t__ ’J O () i DISCLAIMER THE OPINIONS AND CONCLUSIONS EXPRESSED HEREIN ARE THOSE OF THE...power in public opinions , scholar arenas, and international institutions. My idea was then to dig into the French defense and foreign policies in...séance solennelle d’ouverture de la 16ème conférence des chefs d’Etat de France et d’Afrique,” June 20, 1990. • Websites: Vie publique , http://www.vie

  17. Terrorism Event Classification Using Fuzzy Inference Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Inyaem, Uraiwan; Meesad, Phayung; Tran, Dat

    2010-01-01

    Terrorism has led to many problems in Thai societies, not only property damage but also civilian casualties. Predicting terrorism activities in advance can help prepare and manage risk from sabotage by these activities. This paper proposes a framework focusing on event classification in terrorism domain using fuzzy inference systems (FISs). Each FIS is a decision-making model combining fuzzy logic and approximate reasoning. It is generated in five main parts: the input interface, the fuzzification interface, knowledge base unit, decision making unit and output defuzzification interface. Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is a FIS model adapted by combining the fuzzy logic and neural network. The ANFIS utilizes automatic identification of fuzzy logic rules and adjustment of membership function (MF). Moreover, neural network can directly learn from data set to construct fuzzy logic rules and MF implemented in various applications. FIS settings are evaluated based on two comparisons. The first evaluat...

  18. Inferring Planetary Obliquity Using Rotational & Orbital Photometry

    CERN Document Server

    Schwartz, Joel C; Haggard, Hal M; Pallé, Eric; Cowan, Nicolas B

    2015-01-01

    The obliquity of a terrestrial planet is an important clue about its formation and critical to its climate. Previous studies using simulated photometry of Earth show that continuous observations over most of a planet's orbit can be inverted to infer obliquity. We extend this approach to single-epoch observations for planets with arbitrary albedo maps. For diffuse reflection, the flux seen by a distant observer is the product of the planet's albedo map, the host star's illumination, and the observer's visibility of different planet regions. It is useful to treat the product of illumination and visibility as the kernel of a convolution; this kernel is unimodal and symmetric. For planets with unknown obliquity, the kernel is not known a priori, but could be inferred by fitting a rotational light curve. We analyze this kernel under different viewing geometries, finding it well described by its longitudinal width and latitudinal position. We use Monte Carlo simulation to estimate uncertainties on these kernel char...

  19. Human collective intelligence as distributed Bayesian inference

    CERN Document Server

    Krafft, Peter M; Pan, Wei; Della Penna, Nicolás; Altshuler, Yaniv; Shmueli, Erez; Tenenbaum, Joshua B; Pentland, Alex

    2016-01-01

    Collective intelligence is believed to underly the remarkable success of human society. The formation of accurate shared beliefs is one of the key components of human collective intelligence. How are accurate shared beliefs formed in groups of fallible individuals? Answering this question requires a multiscale analysis. We must understand both the individual decision mechanisms people use, and the properties and dynamics of those mechanisms in the aggregate. As of yet, mathematical tools for such an approach have been lacking. To address this gap, we introduce a new analytical framework: We propose that groups arrive at accurate shared beliefs via distributed Bayesian inference. Distributed inference occurs through information processing at the individual level, and yields rational belief formation at the group level. We instantiate this framework in a new model of human social decision-making, which we validate using a dataset we collected of over 50,000 users of an online social trading platform where inves...

  20. Bayesianism and inference to the best explanation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valeriano IRANZO

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Bayesianism and Inference to the best explanation (IBE are two different models of inference. Recently there has been some debate about the possibility of “bayesianizing” IBE. Firstly I explore several alternatives to include explanatory considerations in Bayes’s Theorem. Then I distinguish two different interpretations of prior probabilities: “IBE-Bayesianism” (IBE-Bay and “frequentist-Bayesianism” (Freq-Bay. After detailing the content of the latter, I propose a rule for assessing the priors. I also argue that Freq-Bay: (i endorses a role for explanatory value in the assessment of scientific hypotheses; (ii avoids a purely subjectivist reading of prior probabilities; and (iii fits better than IBE-Bayesianism with two basic facts about science, i.e., the prominent role played by empirical testing and the existence of many scientific theories in the past that failed to fulfil their promises and were subsequently abandoned.

  1. Inference on power law spatial trends

    CERN Document Server

    Robinson, Peter M

    2012-01-01

    Power law or generalized polynomial regressions with unknown real-valued exponents and coefficients, and weakly dependent errors, are considered for observations over time, space or space--time. Consistency and asymptotic normality of nonlinear least-squares estimates of the parameters are established. The joint limit distribution is singular, but can be used as a basis for inference on either exponents or coefficients. We discuss issues of implementation, efficiency, potential for improved estimation and possibilities of extension to more general or alternative trending models to allow for irregularly spaced data or heteroscedastic errors; though it focusses on a particular model to fix ideas, the paper can be viewed as offering machinery useful in developing inference for a variety of models in which power law trends are a component. Indeed, the paper also makes a contribution that is potentially relevant to many other statistical models: Our problem is one of many in which consistency of a vector of parame...

  2. The NIFTY way of Bayesian signal inference

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Selig, Marco, E-mail: mselig@mpa-Garching.mpg.de [Max Planck Institut für Astrophysik, Karl-Schwarzschild-Straße 1, D-85748 Garching, Germany, and Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Geschwister-Scholl-Platz 1, D-80539 München (Germany)

    2014-12-05

    We introduce NIFTY, 'Numerical Information Field Theory', a software package for the development of Bayesian signal inference algorithms that operate independently from any underlying spatial grid and its resolution. A large number of Bayesian and Maximum Entropy methods for 1D signal reconstruction, 2D imaging, as well as 3D tomography, appear formally similar, but one often finds individualized implementations that are neither flexible nor easily transferable. Signal inference in the framework of NIFTY can be done in an abstract way, such that algorithms, prototyped in 1D, can be applied to real world problems in higher-dimensional settings. NIFTY as a versatile library is applicable and already has been applied in 1D, 2D, 3D and spherical settings. A recent application is the D{sup 3}PO algorithm targeting the non-trivial task of denoising, deconvolving, and decomposing photon observations in high energy astronomy.

  3. Inferences on Children’s Reading Groups

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javier González García

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available This article focuses on the non-literal information of a text, which can be inferred from key elements or clues offered by the text itself. This kind of text is called implicit text or inference, due to the thinking process that it stimulates. The explicit resources that lead to information retrieval are related to others of implicit information, which have increased their relevance. In this study, during two courses, how two teachers interpret three stories and how they establish a debate dividing the class into three student groups, was analyzed. The sample was formed by two classes of two urban public schools of Burgos capital (Spain, and two of public schools of Tampico (Mexico. This allowed us to observe an increasing percentage value of the group focused in text comprehension, and a lesser percentage of the group perceiving comprehension as a secondary objective.

  4. Likelihood inference for unions of interacting discs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jesper; Helisová, Katarina

    is specified with respect to a given marked Poisson model (i.e. a Boolean model). We show how edge effects and other complications can be handled by considering a certain conditional likelihood. Our methodology is illustrated by analyzing Peter Diggle's heather dataset, where we discuss the results......To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper which discusses likelihood inference or a random set using a germ-grain model, where the individual grains are unobservable edge effects occur, and other complications appear. We consider the case where the grains form a disc process modelled...... of simulation-based maximum likelihood inference and the effect of specifying different reference Poisson models....

  5. Introductory statistical inference with the likelihood function

    CERN Document Server

    Rohde, Charles A

    2014-01-01

    This textbook covers the fundamentals of statistical inference and statistical theory including Bayesian and frequentist approaches and methodology possible without excessive emphasis on the underlying mathematics. This book is about some of the basic principles of statistics that are necessary to understand and evaluate methods for analyzing complex data sets. The likelihood function is used for pure likelihood inference throughout the book. There is also coverage of severity and finite population sampling. The material was developed from an introductory statistical theory course taught by the author at the Johns Hopkins University’s Department of Biostatistics. Students and instructors in public health programs will benefit from the likelihood modeling approach that is used throughout the text. This will also appeal to epidemiologists and psychometricians.  After a brief introduction, there are chapters on estimation, hypothesis testing, and maximum likelihood modeling. The book concludes with secti...

  6. Dopamine, reward learning, and active inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas eFitzgerald

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Temporal difference learning models propose phasic dopamine signalling encodes reward prediction errors that drive learning. This is supported by studies where optogenetic stimulation of dopamine neurons can stand in lieu of actual reward. Nevertheless, a large body of data also shows that dopamine is not necessary for learning, and that dopamine depletion primarily affects task performance. We offer a resolution to this paradox based on an hypothesis that dopamine encodes the precision of beliefs about alternative actions, and thus controls the outcome-sensitivity of behaviour. We extend an active inference scheme for solving Markov decision processes to include learning, and show that simulated dopamine dynamics strongly resemble those actually observed during instrumental conditioning. Furthermore, simulated dopamine depletion impairs performance but spares learning, while simulated excitation of dopamine neurons drives reward learning, through aberrant inference about outcome states. Our formal approach provides a novel and parsimonious reconciliation of apparently divergent experimental findings.

  7. Variational Bayesian Inference of Line Spectra

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Badiu, Mihai Alin; Hansen, Thomas Lundgaard; Fleury, Bernard Henri

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we address the fundamental problem of line spectral estimation in a Bayesian framework. We target model order and parameter estimation via variational inference in a probabilistic model in which the frequencies are continuous-valued, i.e., not restricted to a grid; and the coeffici......In this paper, we address the fundamental problem of line spectral estimation in a Bayesian framework. We target model order and parameter estimation via variational inference in a probabilistic model in which the frequencies are continuous-valued, i.e., not restricted to a grid......; and the coefficients are governed by a Bernoulli-Gaussian prior model turning model order selection into binary sequence detection. Unlike earlier works which retain only point estimates of the frequencies, we undertake a more complete Bayesian treatment by estimating the posterior probability density functions (pdfs...

  8. Improved testing inference in mixed linear models

    CERN Document Server

    Melo, Tatiane F N; Cribari-Neto, Francisco; 10.1016/j.csda.2008.12.007

    2011-01-01

    Mixed linear models are commonly used in repeated measures studies. They account for the dependence amongst observations obtained from the same experimental unit. Oftentimes, the number of observations is small, and it is thus important to use inference strategies that incorporate small sample corrections. In this paper, we develop modified versions of the likelihood ratio test for fixed effects inference in mixed linear models. In particular, we derive a Bartlett correction to such a test and also to a test obtained from a modified profile likelihood function. Our results generalize those in Zucker et al. (Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B, 2000, 62, 827-838) by allowing the parameter of interest to be vector-valued. Additionally, our Bartlett corrections allow for random effects nonlinear covariance matrix structure. We report numerical evidence which shows that the proposed tests display superior finite sample behavior relative to the standard likelihood ratio test. An application is also presente...

  9. Towards Stratification Learning through Homology Inference

    CERN Document Server

    Bendich, Paul; Wang, Bei

    2010-01-01

    A topological approach to stratification learning is developed for point cloud data drawn from a stratified space. Given such data, our objective is to infer which points belong to the same strata. First we define a multi-scale notion of a stratified space, giving a stratification for each radius level. We then use methods derived from kernel and cokernel persistent homology to cluster the data points into different strata, and we prove a result which guarantees the correctness of our clustering, given certain topological conditions; some geometric intuition for these topological conditions is also provided. Our correctness result is then given a probabilistic flavor: we give bounds on the minimum number of sample points required to infer, with probability, which points belong to the same strata. Finally, we give an explicit algorithm for the clustering, prove its correctness, and apply it to some simulated data.

  10. Inferring network topology via the propagation process

    CERN Document Server

    Zeng, An

    2013-01-01

    Inferring the network topology from the dynamics is a fundamental problem with wide applications in geology, biology and even counter-terrorism. Based on the propagation process, we present a simple method to uncover the network topology. The numerical simulation on artificial networks shows that our method enjoys a high accuracy in inferring the network topology. We find the infection rate in the propagation process significantly influences the accuracy, and each network is corresponding to an optimal infection rate. Moreover, the method generally works better in large networks. These finding are confirmed in both real social and nonsocial networks. Finally, the method is extended to directed networks and a similarity measure specific for directed networks is designed.

  11. Inference for ordered parameters in multinomial distributions

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    This paper discusses inference for ordered parameters of multinomial distributions. We first show that the asymptotic distributions of their maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) are not always normal and the bootstrap distribution estimators of the MLEs can be inconsistent. Then a class of weighted sum estimators (WSEs) of the ordered parameters is proposed. Properties of the WSEs are studied, including their asymptotic normality. Based on those results, large sample inferences for smooth functions of the ordered parameters can be made. Especially, the confidence intervals of the maximum cell probabilities are constructed. Simulation results indicate that this interval estimation performs much better than the bootstrap approaches in the literature. Finally, the above results for ordered parameters of multinomial distributions are extended to more general distribution models.

  12. An Intuitive Dashboard for Bayesian Network Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddy, Vikas; Charisse Farr, Anna; Wu, Paul; Mengersen, Kerrie; Yarlagadda, Prasad K. D. V.

    2014-03-01

    Current Bayesian network software packages provide good graphical interface for users who design and develop Bayesian networks for various applications. However, the intended end-users of these networks may not necessarily find such an interface appealing and at times it could be overwhelming, particularly when the number of nodes in the network is large. To circumvent this problem, this paper presents an intuitive dashboard, which provides an additional layer of abstraction, enabling the end-users to easily perform inferences over the Bayesian networks. Unlike most software packages, which display the nodes and arcs of the network, the developed tool organises the nodes based on the cause-and-effect relationship, making the user-interaction more intuitive and friendly. In addition to performing various types of inferences, the users can conveniently use the tool to verify the behaviour of the developed Bayesian network. The tool has been developed using QT and SMILE libraries in C++.

  13. Pointwise probability reinforcements for robust statistical inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frénay, Benoît; Verleysen, Michel

    2014-02-01

    Statistical inference using machine learning techniques may be difficult with small datasets because of abnormally frequent data (AFDs). AFDs are observations that are much more frequent in the training sample that they should be, with respect to their theoretical probability, and include e.g. outliers. Estimates of parameters tend to be biased towards models which support such data. This paper proposes to introduce pointwise probability reinforcements (PPRs): the probability of each observation is reinforced by a PPR and a regularisation allows controlling the amount of reinforcement which compensates for AFDs. The proposed solution is very generic, since it can be used to robustify any statistical inference method which can be formulated as a likelihood maximisation. Experiments show that PPRs can be easily used to tackle regression, classification and projection: models are freed from the influence of outliers. Moreover, outliers can be filtered manually since an abnormality degree is obtained for each observation.

  14. Data analysis recipes: Probability calculus for inference

    OpenAIRE

    Hogg, David W.

    2012-01-01

    In this pedagogical text aimed at those wanting to start thinking about or brush up on probabilistic inference, I review the rules by which probability distribution functions can (and cannot) be combined. I connect these rules to the operations performed in probabilistic data analysis. Dimensional analysis is emphasized as a valuable tool for helping to construct non-wrong probabilistic statements. The applications of probability calculus in constructing likelihoods, marginalized likelihoods,...

  15. Data analysis recipes: Probability calculus for inference

    CERN Document Server

    Hogg, David W

    2012-01-01

    In this pedagogical text aimed at those wanting to start thinking about or brush up on probabilistic inference, I review the rules by which probability distribution functions can (and cannot) be combined. I connect these rules to the operations performed in probabilistic data analysis. Dimensional analysis is emphasized as a valuable tool for helping to construct non-wrong probabilistic statements. The applications of probability calculus in constructing likelihoods, marginalized likelihoods, posterior probabilities, and posterior predictions are all discussed.

  16. Analysis of KATRIN data using Bayesian inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riis, Anna Sejersen; Hannestad, Steen; Weinheimer, Christian

    2011-01-01

    The KATRIN (KArlsruhe TRItium Neutrino) experiment will be analyzing the tritium beta-spectrum to determine the mass of the neutrino with a sensitivity of 0.2 eV (90% C.L.). This approach to a measurement of the absolute value of the neutrino mass relies only on the principle of energy conservati...... the KATRIN chi squared function in the COSMOMC package - an MCMC code using Bayesian parameter inference - solved the task at hand very nicely....

  17. Inferring Trust Based on Similarity with TILLIT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tavakolifard, Mozhgan; Herrmann, Peter; Knapskog, Svein J.

    A network of people having established trust relations and a model for propagation of related trust scores are fundamental building blocks in many of today’s most successful e-commerce and recommendation systems. However, the web of trust is often too sparse to predict trust values between non-familiar people with high accuracy. Trust inferences are transitive associations among users in the context of an underlying social network and may provide additional information to alleviate the consequences of the sparsity and possible cold-start problems. Such approaches are helpful, provided that a complete trust path exists between the two users. An alternative approach to the problem is advocated in this paper. Based on collaborative filtering one can exploit the like-mindedness resp. similarity of individuals to infer trust to yet unknown parties which increases the trust relations in the web. For instance, if one knows that with respect to a specific property, two parties are trusted alike by a large number of different trusters, one can assume that they are similar. Thus, if one has a certain degree of trust to the one party, one can safely assume a very similar trustworthiness of the other one. In an attempt to provide high quality recommendations and proper initial trust values even when no complete trust propagation path or user profile exists, we propose TILLIT — a model based on combination of trust inferences and user similarity. The similarity is derived from the structure of the trust graph and users’ trust behavior as opposed to other collaborative-filtering based approaches which use ratings of items or user’s profile. We describe an algorithm realizing the approach based on a combination of trust inferences and user similarity, and validate the algorithm using a real large-scale data-set.

  18. Thermodynamics of statistical inference by cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, Alex H; Fisher, Charles K; Mora, Thierry; Mehta, Pankaj

    2014-10-03

    The deep connection between thermodynamics, computation, and information is now well established both theoretically and experimentally. Here, we extend these ideas to show that thermodynamics also places fundamental constraints on statistical estimation and learning. To do so, we investigate the constraints placed by (nonequilibrium) thermodynamics on the ability of biochemical signaling networks to estimate the concentration of an external signal. We show that accuracy is limited by energy consumption, suggesting that there are fundamental thermodynamic constraints on statistical inference.

  19. Unified Theory of Inference for Text Understanding

    Science.gov (United States)

    1986-11-25

    reataurant script is recognized, script application would lead to inferences such as identifying the waiter as ’ ’the waiter who is employed by the...relations between the objects. Objects have names as a convenience for the system modeler, but the names are not used for purposes other than...intent is that we can consider talking to be a frame with a talker slot which must be filled by a person. This is just a convenient notation; the

  20. Determining the Frequency of Defensive Medicine Among General Practitioners in Southeast Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahmood Moosazadeh

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Background Defensive medicine prompts physicians not to admit high-risk patients who need intensive care. This phenomenon not only decreases the quality of healthcare services, but also wastes scarce health resources. Defensive medicine occurs in negative and positive forms. Hence, the present study aimed to determine frequency of positive and negative defensive medicine behaviors and their underlying factors among general practitioners in Southeast Iran. Methods The present cross-sectional study was performed among general practitioners in Southeast Iran. 423 subjects participated in the study on a census basis and a questionnaire was used for data collection. Data analysis was carried out using descriptive and analytical statistics through SPSS 20. Results The majority of participants were male (58.2%. The mean age of physicians was 40 ± 8.5. The frequency of positive and negative defensive medicine among general practitioners in Southeast Iran was 99.8% and 79.2% respectively. A significant relationship was observed between working experience, being informed of law suits against their colleagues, and committing defensive medicine behavior (P< 0.001. Conclusion The present study indicated high frequency of defensive medicine behavior in the Southeast Iran. So, it calls policy-makers special attention to improve the status quo.

  1. Cognitive distortions mediate the relationship between defense styles and depression in female outpatients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sedat Batmaz

    Full Text Available Background and Objectives: Some clinicians use different psychotherapeutic methods in combination in their practice. These combinations reflect the need for more rigorous research on the common pathways which these different therapy orientations may be utilizing, and one way to identify these pathways would be to investigate some core assessment tools or conceptual foundations of these two different approaches. Aim: The aim of the present study was to evaluate the relationship between defense mechanisms and cognitive distortions, and to identify the mediating role of cognitive distortions between defense styles and depression. Methods: A total of 342 female psychiatric outpatients aged 18 and older were recruited. A diagnostic interview and rating of the depression severity were undertaken, and the Cognitive Distortion Scales and the Defense Style Questionnaire were completed by the participants. Hierarchical regression analyses were conducted to test for the direct and indirect effects of the defense styles. Results Cognitive distortions and defense mechanisms were both correlated with the severity of depression, but the correlations were stronger for the former. Conclusions The findings are suggestive of the mediating effect of cognitive distortions between defense mechanisms and the severity of depression.

  2. An empirical look at the Defense Mechanism Test (DMT): reliability and construct validity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ekehammar, Bo; Zuber, Irena; Konstenius, Marja-Liisa

    2005-07-01

    Although the Defense Mechanism Test (DMT) has been in use for almost half a century, there are still quite contradictory views about whether it is a reliable instrument, and if so, what it really measures. Thus, based on data from 39 female students, we first examined DMT inter-coder reliability by analyzing the agreement among trained judges in their coding of the same DMT protocols. Second, we constructed a "parallel" photographic picture that retained all structural characteristic of the original and analyzed DMT parallel-test reliability. Third, we examined the construct validity of the DMT by (a) employing three self-report defense-mechanism inventories and analyzing the intercorrelations between DMT defense scores and corresponding defenses in these instruments, (b) studying the relationships between DMT responses and scores on trait and state anxiety, and (c) relating DMT-defense scores to measures of self-esteem. The main results showed that the DMT can be coded with high reliability by trained coders, that the parallel-test reliability is unsatisfactory compared to traditional psychometric standards, that there is a certain generalizability in the number of perceptual distortions that people display from one picture to another, and that the construct validation provided meager empirical evidence for the conclusion that the DMT measures what it purports to measure, that is, psychological defense mechanisms.

  3. Original article Identifying indicators of defensive activity in narration about important interpersonal relations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emilia Soroko

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Background One of the main components of psychological conversation that influence communication is psychological defensiveness. 
In the paper I propose processual – situational understanding of defensiveness, and its measurement based on coding system. Preliminary results on link between personality traits and defensiveness in people’s narratives are presented as well. Participants and procedure To test proposed coding system, study was conducted with participants presenting different levels of personality organization’s (borderline: n = 35, 20 women, M = 26.09, SD = 4.82, neurotic: n = 29, 24 women, M = 25.90, SD = 5.25, integrated: n = 31, 26 women, M = 21.94, SD = 1.69. Correlation method was applied (Borderline Personality Inventory, Neuroticism Scale, Emotion Control Inventory, as well as narrative’s interviews. Participants’ statements were coded by competent judges (defensiveness and coherence of narratives, and by automatic lexical analyses (descriptive indicators. Results Results indicate that proposed defensiveness coding system is a set of heterogeneous indicators, and four groups of indicators could be extracted. Correlations between those indicators and expression control (positive relation, and coherence of narratives (negative relation. Moreover, differences between borderline participants and neurotic ones emerged. Conclusions Proposed coding system seems to be a heterogeneous but useful tool for assessing defensiveness during psychological interviews. It could be applied as an element of a procedural control measures, directed to test the reliability of psychological conversation.

  4. Evaluating Defense Architecture Frameworks for C4I System Using Analytic Hierarchy Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdullah S. Alghamdi

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: The Command, Control, Communications, Computers and Intelligence (C4I Systems provided situational awareness about operational environment and supported in decision making and directed to operative environment. These systems had been used by various agencies like defense, police, investigation, road, rail, airports, oil and gas related department. However, the increase use of C4I system had made it more important and attractive. Consequently interest in design and development of C4I system had increased among the researchers. Many defense industry frameworks were available but the problem was a suitable selection of a framework in design and development of C4I system. Approach: This study described the concepts, tool and methodology being used for evaluation analysis of different frameworks by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP. Results: We had compared different defense industry frameworks like Department of Defense Architecture Framework (DODAF, Ministry of Defense Architecture Framework (MODAF and NATO Architecture Framework (NAF and found that AHP is fairly good tool in terms of analysis. Conclusion: Different defense industry frameworks such as DODAF, MODAF and NAF had been evaluated and compared using AHP.

  5. [Study of defense styles, defenses and coping strategies in alcohol-dependent population].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribadier, A; Varescon, I

    2017-05-01

    Defense mechanisms have been seen to greatly change over time and across different definitions made by different theoretical currents. Recently with the definition provided by the DSM IV, defense mechanisms have integrated the concept of coping as a defensive factor. These mechanisms are no longer considered just through a psychodynamic approach but also through a cognitive and behavioral one. In recent years, new theories have therefore integrated these two components of the defensive operation. According to Chabrol and Callahan (2013), defense mechanisms precede coping strategies. In individuals with psychopathological disorders, these authors indicate a relative stability of these mechanisms. Also, we asked about the presence of unique characteristics among people with alcohol dependence. Indeed, studies conducted with people with alcohol dependence highlight the presence of a neurotic defense style and some highly immature defenses (projection, acting out, splitting and somatization). In terms of coping strategies, persons with alcohol dependence preferentially use avoidant strategies and strategies focused on emotion. However, although several studies have been conducted to assess coping strategies and defense styles within a population of individuals with an alcohol problem, at the present time none of them has taken into account all these aspects of defense mechanisms. The aim of this study is therefore to study the defenses and defense styles and coping strategies in an alcohol-dependent population. This multicenter study (3 CHU, 1 center of supportive care and prevention in addiction and 1 clinic) received a favorable opinion of an Institutional Review Board (IRB Registration #: 00001072). Eighty alcohol-dependent individuals responded to a questionnaire assessing sociodemographic characteristics and elements related to the course of consumption. Coping strategies were assessed by means of a questionnaire validated in French: the Brief Cope. The Defense

  6. Comparative study of discretization methods of microarray data for inferring transcriptional regulatory networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ji Wei

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Microarray data discretization is a basic preprocess for many algorithms of gene regulatory network inference. Some common discretization methods in informatics are used to discretize microarray data. Selection of the discretization method is often arbitrary and no systematic comparison of different discretization has been conducted, in the context of gene regulatory network inference from time series gene expression data. Results In this study, we propose a new discretization method "bikmeans", and compare its performance with four other widely-used discretization methods using different datasets, modeling algorithms and number of intervals. Sensitivities, specificities and total accuracies were calculated and statistical analysis was carried out. Bikmeans method always gave high total accuracies. Conclusions Our results indicate that proper discretization methods can consistently improve gene regulatory network inference independent of network modeling algorithms and datasets. Our new method, bikmeans, resulted in significant better total accuracies than other methods.

  7. Inferring sparse networks for noisy transient processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tran, Hoang M.; Bukkapatnam, Satish T. S.

    2016-02-01

    Inferring causal structures of real world complex networks from measured time series signals remains an open issue. The current approaches are inadequate to discern between direct versus indirect influences (i.e., the presence or absence of a directed arc connecting two nodes) in the presence of noise, sparse interactions, as well as nonlinear and transient dynamics of real world processes. We report a sparse regression (referred to as the -min) approach with theoretical bounds on the constraints on the allowable perturbation to recover the network structure that guarantees sparsity and robustness to noise. We also introduce averaging and perturbation procedures to further enhance prediction scores (i.e., reduce inference errors), and the numerical stability of -min approach. Extensive investigations have been conducted with multiple benchmark simulated genetic regulatory network and Michaelis-Menten dynamics, as well as real world data sets from DREAM5 challenge. These investigations suggest that our approach can significantly improve, oftentimes by 5 orders of magnitude over the methods reported previously for inferring the structure of dynamic networks, such as Bayesian network, network deconvolution, silencing and modular response analysis methods based on optimizing for sparsity, transients, noise and high dimensionality issues.

  8. Intuitive Mechanics: Inferences of Vertical Projectile Motion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milana Damjenić

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Our intuitive knowledge of physics mechanics, i.e. knowledge defined through personal experience about velocity, acceleration, motion causes, etc., is often wrong. This research examined whether similar misconceptions occur systematically in the case of vertical projectiles launched upwards. The first experiment examined inferences of velocity and acceleration of the ball moving vertically upwards, while the second experiment examined whether the mass of the thrown ball and force of the throw have an impact on the inference. The results showed that more than three quarters of the participants wrongly assumed that maximum velocity and peak acceleration did not occur at the initial launch of the projectile. There was no effect of object mass or effect of the force of the throw on the inference relating to the velocity and acceleration of the ball. The results exceed the explanatory reach of the impetus theory, most commonly used to explain the naive understanding of the mechanics of object motion. This research supports that the actions on objects approach and the property transmission heuristics may more aptly explain the dissidence between perceived and actual implications in projectile motion.

  9. Combinatorics of distance-based tree inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pardi, Fabio; Gascuel, Olivier

    2012-10-01

    Several popular methods for phylogenetic inference (or hierarchical clustering) are based on a matrix of pairwise distances between taxa (or any kind of objects): The objective is to construct a tree with branch lengths so that the distances between the leaves in that tree are as close as possible to the input distances. If we hold the structure (topology) of the tree fixed, in some relevant cases (e.g., ordinary least squares) the optimal values for the branch lengths can be expressed using simple combinatorial formulae. Here we define a general form for these formulae and show that they all have two desirable properties: First, the common tree reconstruction approaches (least squares, minimum evolution), when used in combination with these formulae, are guaranteed to infer the correct tree when given enough data (consistency); second, the branch lengths of all the simple (nearest neighbor interchange) rearrangements of a tree can be calculated, optimally, in quadratic time in the size of the tree, thus allowing the efficient application of hill climbing heuristics. The study presented here is a continuation of that by Mihaescu and Pachter on branch length estimation [Mihaescu R, Pachter L (2008) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 105:13206-13211]. The focus here is on the inference of the tree itself and on providing a basis for novel algorithms to reconstruct trees from distances.

  10. Inferring Pedigree Graphs from Genetic Distances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamura, Takeyuki; Ito, Hiro

    In this paper, we study a problem of inferring blood relationships which satisfy a given matrix of genetic distances between all pairs of n nodes. Blood relationships are represented by our proposed graph class, which is called a pedigree graph. A pedigree graph is a directed acyclic graph in which the maximum indegree is at most two. We show that the number of pedigree graphs which satisfy the condition of given genetic distances may be exponential, but they can be represented by one directed acyclic graph with n nodes. Moreover, an O(n3) time algorithm which solves the problem is also given. Although phylogenetic trees and phylogenetic networks are similar data structures to pedigree graphs, it seems that inferring methods for phylogenetic trees and networks cannot be applied to infer pedigree graphs since nodes of phylogenetic trees and networks represent species whereas nodes of pedigree graphs represent individuals. We also show an O(n2) time algorithm which detects a contradiction between a given pedigreee graph and distance matrix of genetic distances.

  11. Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Film

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The United States Air Force Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Operational Linescan System (OLS) is a polar orbiting meteorological sensor with two...

  12. Happiness and Defense Styles in Psychiatrists.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machado, Leonardo; Tavares, Hermano; Petribú, Kátia; Pinto, Tiago; Cantilino, Amaury

    2016-03-01

    The aim of this study was to measure happiness in a sample of Brazilian psychiatrists and correlate it with the defense styles used by them and sociodemographic data. This study was observational, cross-sectional, and analytical. Data were collected through self-administered questionnaires by Brazilian psychiatrists who participated in the XXXII Brazilian Congress of Psychiatry, 2014. In this sample of psychiatrists, happiness levels were high (scoring 5.69 of a total of 7), and mature defense styles prevailed, especially humor and anticipation. In a multivariate analysis, having children, good sleep quality, increased sexual interest, and use of defense styles such as humor, anticipation, and idealization all showed a positive relationship with happiness; on the other hand, using defense style such as acting out or annulment demonstrated a negative relationship with happiness. Despite the well-known professional burden that they bear, Brazilian psychiatrists surveyed presented, in general, high levels of subjective well-being and happiness.

  13. Active Cyber Defense Dynamics Exhibiting Rich Phenomena

    CERN Document Server

    Zheng, Ren; Xu, Shouhuai

    2016-01-01

    The Internet is a man-made complex system under constant attacks (e.g., Advanced Persistent Threats and malwares). It is therefore important to understand the phenomena that can be induced by the interaction between cyber attacks and cyber defenses. In this paper, we explore the rich phenomena that can be exhibited when the defender employs active defense to combat cyber attacks. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study that shows that {\\em active cyber defense dynamics} (or more generally, {\\em cybersecurity dynamics}) can exhibit the bifurcation and chaos phenomena. This has profound implications for cyber security measurement and prediction: (i) it is infeasible (or even impossible) to accurately measure and predict cyber security under certain circumstances; (ii) the defender must manipulate the dynamics to avoid such {\\em unmanageable situations} in real-life defense operations.

  14. Formerly Used Defense Sites (FUDS) Public Properties

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — The FUDS Public GIS dataset contains point location information for the 2,709 Formerly Used Defense Sites (FUDS) properties where the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is...

  15. Towards Semantic Search and Inference in Electronic Medical Records

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bevan Koopman

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Background This paper presents a novel approach to searching electronic medical records that is based on concept matching rather than keyword matching. Aims The concept-based approach is intended to overcome specific challenges we identified in searching medical records. Method Queries and documents were transformed from their term-based originals into medical concepts as defined by the SNOMED-CT ontology. Results Evaluation on a real-world collection of medical records showed our concept-based approach outperformed a keyword baseline by 25% in Mean Average Precision. Conclusion The concept-based approach provides a framework for further development of inference based search systems for dealing with medical data.

  16. The Impact of Declining Defense Budgets on Japan Maritime Self Defense Force

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-06-01

    structural reform, the GOJ is trying to reduce all expenditures , including defense expenditures . Conversely, Japan and countries in its vicinity face the...reform, the GOJ is trying to reduce all expenditures , including defense expenditures . Conversely, Japan and countries in its vicinity face the threat...reduce expenditures . The alternative was serious financial trouble for Japan in the near future. The impact of these reforms is that defense is no

  17. 20 CFR 220.112 - Conclusions by physicians concerning the claimant's disability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... claimant's impairment must result from anatomical, physiological, or psychological abnormalities which are... are not within the expertise of medical sources. (b) Medical opinions that are conclusive. A...

  18. Defense Downsizing and Blacks in the Military

    Science.gov (United States)

    1993-06-01

    8217IIa NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL Monterey, California AD-A272 415 THESIS DEFENSE DOWNSIZING AND BLACKS IN THE MILITARY by Roy L. Nixon June 1993 Thesis...include security classification) DEFENSE DOWNSIZING AND BLACKS IN TIE MILITARY 12 Plersonal Author(s) Roy L. Nixon 1 3a Type of Report I13b Time Covered...end of the draft. However. the armed forces are now engaged in the process of downsizing , and there is some speculation that blacks may be

  19. Guam: U.S. Defense Deployments

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-11-15

    Gates Views Growth Under Way in Guam,” American Forces Press Service, May 30, 2008. 2 Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, speech at Shangri-La Hotel ...crises; and sea lines of communication (SLOCs), particularly through the Straits of Malacca . Combat aircraft on Guam can reach Taiwan, Japan, Philippines...Remarks by retired Lieutenant General, USMC, George Trautman III, at Heritage Foundation, May 3, 2012. Guam: U.S. Defense Deployments Congressional

  20. [Medical Service of the Estonian Defense Forces].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anisimov, A S; Golota, A S; Krassii, A B; Soldatov, E A; Shalakin, R A

    2015-06-01

    The article is a brief description of the current state of the Estonian Defense Forces medical service and is based on the study of the open access foreign sources. At the beginning, the general information about Estonia, its Defense Forces, and their medical service is presented. Then the medical service particular features are described with more detail, namely, the organization of the inpatient and outpatient treatment, medical supply, scientific research, combat medicine, medical staff education and training, medical service personnel income.

  1. Surfing China’s National Defense

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Following the start of its first test run on August 20, 2009, the website www.mod.gov.cn of the Ministry of National Defense (MOD) of the People’s Republic of China has logged more than 2 billion hits, from many countries and regions including China, the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, Australia and Singapore. China National Defense News reporters recently interviewed Ji Guilin, the website’s Editor in Chief, on its performance and the feedback of netizens.

  2. Carp erythrodermatitis: host defense-pathogen interaction.

    OpenAIRE

    Pourreau, C.N.

    1990-01-01

    The outcome of a bacterial infection depends on the interaction between pathogen and host. The ability of the microbe to survive in the host depends on its invasive potential (i.e. spreading and multiplication), and its ability to obtain essential nutrients and to resist the host's defense system. On the other hand, the host's resistance to a bacterial attack depends on its physiological state, the intensity of the bacterial attack and the efficacy of the defense system to neutralize toxins a...

  3. The Future of Theater Missile Defense

    Science.gov (United States)

    1994-06-01

    withERINT) 1,500 IVf 74C 1998 3.0 Navy Lower-Tier Defense 1,820 SO4 50* 1999° 3* THAAD(withTMD-GBR) 1,313 80 14 2001e 9.1 AdvaaoedCapabflitylMD Systems...Administration cannot, by itself, provide a sufficient buffer between theater and strategic missile defenses. Other limits must be included. Finally, the

  4. Department of Defense Recovering Warrior Task Force

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-02

    233 Baldor , L.C. (April 26, 2010). Top Wounded Warrior official: I was forced out. Retrieved May 26, 2014, from http://www.armytimes.com/article...Coordination briefing to the Defense Advisory Committee on Women in the Services. 244 Baldor , L.C. (April 26, 2010). Top Wounded Warrior official: I was...2014, from http://www.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=121796.  Baldor , L.C. (April 26, 2010). Top Wounded Warrior official: I was forced out

  5. A feedback framework for protein inference with peptides identified from tandem mass spectra

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shi Jinhong

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Protein inference is an important computational step in proteomics. There exists a natural nest relationship between protein inference and peptide identification, but these two steps are usually performed separately in existing methods. We believe that both peptide identification and protein inference can be improved by exploring such nest relationship. Results In this study, a feedback framework is proposed to process peptide identification reports from search engines, and an iterative method is implemented to exemplify the processing of Sequest peptide identification reports according to the framework. The iterative method is verified on two datasets with known validity of proteins and peptides, and compared with ProteinProphet and PeptideProphet. The results have shown that not only can the iterative method infer more true positive and less false positive proteins than ProteinProphet, but also identify more true positive and less false positive peptides than PeptideProphet. Conclusions The proposed iterative method implemented according to the feedback framework can unify and improve the results of peptide identification and protein inference.

  6. Evidence of fronto-temporal interactions for strategic inference processes during language comprehension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chow, Ho Ming; Kaup, Barbara; Raabe, Markus; Greenlee, Mark W

    2008-04-01

    We investigated how readers strategically infer context-appropriate information on the basis of the presented text and their world knowledge during passage reading. In the main experimental condition, participants were instructed to read short passages and to predict the development of the situation described in each passage during reading. To accomplish this task, we assumed that participants need to draw strategic inferences relevant to the contexts. Comparing this condition with a passage-reading condition without prediction, we found out that the left anterior prefrontal cortex (aPFC) in Brodmann area 9/10 and the left anterior ventral inferior frontal gyrus (vIFG) in Brodmann area 47 elicited increased hemodynamic responses. These two regions are probably critical in coherence evaluation and in drawing strategic inferences. Additionally, we used dynamic causal modelling (DCM) to investigate the fronto-temporal interactions induced by the experimental conditions. Ten models with different plausible ways to modulate the connections between frontal and temporal regions were compared. The DCM results showed a consistent conclusion: The connectivity between the left posterior superior temporal sulcus (pSTS) and the left dorsal lateral inferior frontal gyrus (dIFG) were enhanced when participants made inferential predictions during reading. The results support the role of top-down influences mediated by the neural pathways between dIFG and pSTS in retrieving strategic inferences. With these findings we discuss functional roles of aPFC, vIFG and dIFG-pSTS connections in drawing strategic inferences.

  7. Backward renormalization-group inference of cortical dipole sources and neural connectivity efficacy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amaral, Selene da Rocha; Baccalá, Luiz A; Barbosa, Leonardo S; Caticha, Nestor

    2017-06-01

    Proper neural connectivity inference has become essential for understanding cognitive processes associated with human brain function. Its efficacy is often hampered by the curse of dimensionality. In the electroencephalogram case, which is a noninvasive electrophysiological monitoring technique to record electrical activity of the brain, a possible way around this is to replace multichannel electrode information with dipole reconstructed data. We use a method based on maximum entropy and the renormalization group to infer the position of the sources, whose success hinges on transmitting information from low- to high-resolution representations of the cortex. The performance of this method compares favorably to other available source inference algorithms, which are ranked here in terms of their performance with respect to directed connectivity inference by using artificially generated dynamic data. We examine some representative scenarios comprising different numbers of dynamically connected dipoles over distinct cortical surface positions and under different sensor noise impairment levels. The overall conclusion is that inverse problem solutions do not affect the correct inference of the direction of the flow of information as long as the equivalent dipole sources are correctly found.

  8. Plant defense using toxic inorganic ions: conceptual models of the defensive enhancement and joint effects hypotheses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyd, Robert S

    2012-10-01

    The concept of plant defense using toxic mineral elements originated as an explanation for extremely elevated concentrations of some elements (termed hyperaccumulation) in some plant tissues. The Defensive Enhancement Hypothesis suggests that hyperaccumulation evolved because, after an initial defensive benefit accrued from a relatively low initial concentration, increased concentration of an element provided increased plant fitness and drove evolution of higher element concentrations until hyperaccumulation was achieved. The Joint Effects Hypothesis postulates that additive or synergistic effects between element-based defenses, or between toxic element and organic chemical defenses, may have contributed to the evolution of hyperaccumulation. By lessening the concentration of an element necessary to provide an initial defensive benefit to a plant, joint effects could decrease the level of an element that provides an initial defensive benefit, allowing additive or synergistic defensive enhancement to take effect. Recent experimental tests have demonstrated defense at relatively low element concentrations, and tests of metal/metal and metal/organic compound combinations have shown joint effects. These hypotheses suggest how hyperaccumulator plants may have evolved in response to plant-herbivore interactions, and suggest that toxic element levels below those used to define hyperaccumulation may be ecologically effective. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Quadrennial Defense Review 2014: trends in US defense policy and consequences for NATO

    OpenAIRE

    Overhaus, Marco

    2014-01-01

    Every four years the Pentagon publishes a report on the central developments and trends in US defense policy. The Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) released in early March 2014 is the first to include in more detail the consequences of the defense budget cuts passed since 2011. Otherwise, the so-called US rebalance to the Asia-Pacific region and the war-weariness of the American people are the principal factors shaping US defense policy. While not representing a watershed for transatlantic def...

  10. Self-Defense in Karabakh Conflict?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saeed Bagheri

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Use of force is one of the principles of international law that has been banned by the UN Charter and modern constitutions. However, since the enforcement of the UN Charter, self-defense has become the preferred excuse for states to justify their use of force. Applying self-defense, however, requires some conditions. Immediacy is one of the important conditions of self-defense. This is defined as the timeframe between armed attacks and reaction to it. This situation requires self-defense immediately after the armed conflict or during a reasonable timeframe since its occurance.In this respect, emerging Karabakh Conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the 1990s is important. In this article, by comparing two different approaches (strict and board interpretation of the temporal link between the measures of self-defense and the armed attacks (immediacy, the temporal link between the self-defense countermeasures of Azerbaijan and attacks by Armenia in Karabakh Conflict will be examined.

  11. Mediational Inferences in the Process of Counselor Judgment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haase, Richard F.; And Others

    1983-01-01

    Replicates research on the process of moving from observations to clinical judgments. Counselors (N=20) made status inferences, attributional inferences, and diagnostic classification of clients based on case folders. Results suggest the clinical judgment process was stagewise mediated, and attributional inferences had little direct impact on…

  12. Type Inference for Session Types in the Pi-Calculus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Graversen, Eva Fajstrup; Harbo, Jacob Buchreitz; Huttel, Hans

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we present a direct algorithm for session type inference for the π-calculus. Type inference for session types has previously been achieved by either imposing limitations and restriction on the π-calculus, or by reducing the type inference problem to that for linear types. Our approach...

  13. Type Inference for Session Types in the Pi-Calculus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Huttel, Hans; Graversen, Eva Fajstrup; Wahl, Sebastian

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we present a direct algorithm for session type inference for the π-calculus. Type inference for session types has previously been achieved by either imposing limitations and restriction on the π-calculus, or by reducing the type inference problem to that for linear types. Our approa...

  14. Classical and Bayesian aspects of robust unit root inference

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    H. Hoek (Henk); H.K. van Dijk (Herman)

    1995-01-01

    textabstractThis paper has two themes. First, we classify some effects which outliers in the data have on unit root inference. We show that, both in a classical and a Bayesian framework, the presence of additive outliers moves ‘standard’ inference towards stationarity. Second, we base inference on a

  15. Statistical Inference at Work: Statistical Process Control as an Example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakker, Arthur; Kent, Phillip; Derry, Jan; Noss, Richard; Hoyles, Celia

    2008-01-01

    To characterise statistical inference in the workplace this paper compares a prototypical type of statistical inference at work, statistical process control (SPC), with a type of statistical inference that is better known in educational settings, hypothesis testing. Although there are some similarities between the reasoning structure involved in…

  16. Reasoning about Informal Statistical Inference: One Statistician's View

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossman, Allan J.

    2008-01-01

    This paper identifies key concepts and issues associated with the reasoning of informal statistical inference. I focus on key ideas of inference that I think all students should learn, including at secondary level as well as tertiary. I argue that a fundamental component of inference is to go beyond the data at hand, and I propose that statistical…

  17. Chemical defense balanced by sequestration and de novo biosynthesis in a lepidopteran specialist.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joel Fürstenberg-Hägg

    Full Text Available The evolution of sequestration (uptake and accumulation relative to de novo biosynthesis of chemical defense compounds is poorly understood, as is the interplay between these two strategies. The Burnet moth Zygaena filipendulae (Lepidoptera and its food-plant Lotus corniculatus (Fabaceae poses an exemplary case study of these questions, as Z. filipendulae belongs to the only insect family known to both de novo biosynthesize and sequester the same defense compounds directly from its food-plant. Z. filipendulae and L. corniculatus both contain the two cyanogenic glucosides linamarin and lotaustralin, which are defense compounds that can be hydrolyzed to liberate toxic hydrogen cyanide. The overall amounts and ratios of linamarin and lotaustralin in Z. filipendulae are tightly regulated, and only to a low extent reflect the ratio in the ingested food-plant. We demonstrate that Z. filipendulae adjusts the de novo biosynthesis of CNglcs by regulation at both the transcriptional and protein level depending on food plant composition. Ultimately this ensures that the larva saves energy and nitrogen while maintaining an effective defense system to fend off predators. By using in situ PCR and immunolocalization, the biosynthetic pathway was resolved to the larval fat body and integument, which infers rapid replenishment of defense compounds following an encounter with a predator. Our study supports the hypothesis that de novo biosynthesis of CNglcs in Z. filipendulae preceded the ability to sequester, and facilitated a food-plant switch to cyanogenic plants, after which sequestration could evolve. Preservation of de novo biosynthesis allows fine-tuning of the amount and composition of CNglcs in Z. filipendulae.

  18. Is there a hierarchy of social inferences? The likelihood and speed of inferring intentionality, mind, and personality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malle, Bertram F; Holbrook, Jess

    2012-04-01

    People interpret behavior by making inferences about agents' intentionality, mind, and personality. Past research studied such inferences 1 at a time; in real life, people make these inferences simultaneously. The present studies therefore examined whether 4 major inferences (intentionality, desire, belief, and personality), elicited simultaneously in response to an observed behavior, might be ordered in a hierarchy of likelihood and speed. To achieve generalizability, the studies included a wide range of stimulus behaviors, presented them verbally and as dynamic videos, and assessed inferences both in a retrieval paradigm (measuring the likelihood and speed of accessing inferences immediately after they were made) and in an online processing paradigm (measuring the speed of forming inferences during behavior observation). Five studies provide evidence for a hierarchy of social inferences-from intentionality and desire to belief to personality-that is stable across verbal and visual presentations and that parallels the order found in developmental and primate research.

  19. Department of Defense Healthcare Management System Modernization (DHMSM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-03-01

    2016 Major Automated Information System Annual Report Department of Defense Healthcare Management System Modernization (DHMSM) Defense...Secretary of Defense PB - President’s Budget RDT&E - Research, Development, Test, and Evaluation SAE - Service Acquisition Executive TBD - To Be...DSN Fax: Date Assigned: November 16, 2015 Program Information Program Name Department of Defense Healthcare Management System Modernization

  20. 76 FR 22681 - Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) Address Directory

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-04-22

    ... of the Secretary Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) Address Directory AGENCY: Department of Defense. ACTION: Notice. SUMMARY: The Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) is updating its Address Directory which is.... Jody Sinkler, 703-767-5045. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: DLA Address Directory: Defense Logistics...

  1. 78 FR 25853 - Defense Logistics Agency Privacy Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-03

    ... of the Secretary 32 CFR Part 323 RIN 0790-AI86 Defense Logistics Agency Privacy Program AGENCY: Defense Logistics Agency, DoD. ACTION: Final rule. SUMMARY: The Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) is revising... Defense Logistics Agency's implementation of the Privacy Act of 1974, as amended. In addition, DLA...

  2. 78 FR 17176 - Federal Acquisition Regulation; Defense Base Act

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-20

    ... Act as extended by the Defense Base Act. II. Discussion and Analysis The Defense Base Act of 1941...-insurer; to submit a timely, written report to the Department of Labor (DOL) in the event of an employee's... (Defense Base Act), merely clarify the existing requirements set forth in the Defense Base Act of 1941...

  3. Diffusion versus linear ballistic accumulation: different models but the same conclusions about psychological processes?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Donkin, C.; Brown, S.; Heathcote, A.; Wagenmakers, E.-J.

    2011-01-01

    Quantitative models for response time and accuracy are increasingly used as tools to draw conclusions about psychological processes. Here we investigate the extent to which these substantive conclusions depend on whether researchers use the Ratcliff diffusion model or the Linear Ballistic

  4. Conclusions of the presidency. European council of Barcelona, March 15 and 16 2002; Conclusions de la presidence. Conseil europeen de Barcelone 15 et 16 mars 2002

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2002-07-01

    This document summarizes the conclusions of the European Council held in Barcelona (Spain) on March 15 and 16, 2002. Among the priority actions listed by the council figure the integration of energy, transportation and communication networks at the European scale. In particular, the council commits the Parliament and itself to start the final phase of opening of gas and electricity markets: free choice of a supplier, obligation of public utility, security of supplies, separation between transmission and distribution and between production and supply, non-discriminatory access of consumers and suppliers to networks with transparent tariffs, establishment of a regulatory agency in each member state, agreement for a tariffing system for the international electricity trades etc.. Concerning the sustainable development strategy of the European union, the council is pressing the member states for the completion of the national procedures of ratification of the Kyoto protocol. However, new measures need to be taken to develop technologies respectful for the environment, in particular in the domain of energy and transports. (J.S.)

  5. 22 CFR 124.15 - Special Export Controls for Defense Articles and Defense Services Controlled under Category XV...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Special Export Controls for Defense Articles...-SHORE PROCUREMENT AND OTHER DEFENSE SERVICES § 124.15 Special Export Controls for Defense Articles and Defense Services Controlled under Category XV: Space Systems and Space Launches. (a) The export of...

  6. Inferring Acceptance and Rejection in Dialogue by Default Rules of Inference

    CERN Document Server

    Walker, M A

    1996-01-01

    This paper discusses the processes by which conversants in a dialogue can infer whether their assertions and proposals have been accepted or rejected by their conversational partners. It expands on previous work by showing that logical consistency is a necessary indicator of acceptance, but that it is not sufficient, and that logical inconsistency is sufficient as an indicator of rejection, but it is not necessary. I show how conversants can use information structure and prosody as well as logical reasoning in distinguishing between acceptances and logically consistent rejections, and relate this work to previous work on implicature and default reasoning by introducing three new classes of rejection: {\\sc implicature rejections}, {\\sc epistemic rejections} and {\\sc deliberation rejections}. I show how these rejections are inferred as a result of default inferences, which, by other analyses, would have been blocked by the context. In order to account for these facts, I propose a model of the common ground that...

  7. A Laboratory for Characterizing the Efficacy of Moving Target Defense

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-10-25

    SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: Under ARO funded BAA project entitled “Modeling and Analysis of Moving Target Defense Mechanisms in MANET ”, we at College...Efficacy of Moving Target Defense Report Title Under ARO funded BAA project entitled “Modeling and Analysis of Moving Target Defense Mechanisms in MANET ...Defense 1 Statement of the Problem Under ARO funded BAA project entitled “Modeling and Analysis of Moving Target Defense Mechanisms in MANET ”, we

  8. The future of planetary defense

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mainzer, A.

    2017-04-01

    Asteroids and comets have impacted Earth in the past and will do so in the future. While the frequency of impacts is reasonably well understood on geologic timescales, it is difficult to predict the next sizeable impact on human timescales by extrapolation from population statistics alone. Fortunately, by identifying and tracking individual objects, we can make precise predictions of any potential close encounters with Earth. As more advance notice is provided, the range of possible mitigation options expands. While the chance of an impact is very small, the potential consequences can be severe, meaning that sensible risk reduction measures should be undertaken. By implementing surveys, the risk of an unforeseen impact can be greatly reduced: the first step is finding the objects. Fortunately, the worldwide community of professional and amateur astronomers has made significant progress in discovering large near-Earth objects (NEOs). More than 95% of NEOs capable of causing global devastation (objects larger than 1 km in diameter) have been discovered, and none of these pose an impact hazard in the near future. Infrastructure is in place to link observations and compute close approaches in real time. Interagency and international collaborations have been undertaken to strengthen cooperative efforts to plan potential mitigation and civil defense campaigns. Yet much remains to be done. Approximately 70% of NEOs larger than 140 m (large enough to cause severe regional damage) remain undiscovered. With the existing surveys, it will take decades to identify the rest. Progress can be accelerated by undertaking new surveys with improved sensitivity.Plain Language SummaryAsteroids and comets have impacted Earth in the past and will do so in the future. Fortunately, by identifying and tracking them, we have the ability to predict any potential close encounters with Earth. By observing the sky repeatedly to search for near-Earth objects, the risk of an unforeseen impact can

  9. Nonparametric inference of network structure and dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peixoto, Tiago P.

    The network structure of complex systems determine their function and serve as evidence for the evolutionary mechanisms that lie behind them. Despite considerable effort in recent years, it remains an open challenge to formulate general descriptions of the large-scale structure of network systems, and how to reliably extract such information from data. Although many approaches have been proposed, few methods attempt to gauge the statistical significance of the uncovered structures, and hence the majority cannot reliably separate actual structure from stochastic fluctuations. Due to the sheer size and high-dimensionality of many networks, this represents a major limitation that prevents meaningful interpretations of the results obtained with such nonstatistical methods. In this talk, I will show how these issues can be tackled in a principled and efficient fashion by formulating appropriate generative models of network structure that can have their parameters inferred from data. By employing a Bayesian description of such models, the inference can be performed in a nonparametric fashion, that does not require any a priori knowledge or ad hoc assumptions about the data. I will show how this approach can be used to perform model comparison, and how hierarchical models yield the most appropriate trade-off between model complexity and quality of fit based on the statistical evidence present in the data. I will also show how this general approach can be elegantly extended to networks with edge attributes, that are embedded in latent spaces, and that change in time. The latter is obtained via a fully dynamic generative network model, based on arbitrary-order Markov chains, that can also be inferred in a nonparametric fashion. Throughout the talk I will illustrate the application of the methods with many empirical networks such as the internet at the autonomous systems level, the global airport network, the network of actors and films, social networks, citations among

  10. Bayesian Estimation and Inference Using Stochastic Electronics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thakur, Chetan Singh; Afshar, Saeed; Wang, Runchun M; Hamilton, Tara J; Tapson, Jonathan; van Schaik, André

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we present the implementation of two types of Bayesian inference problems to demonstrate the potential of building probabilistic algorithms in hardware using single set of building blocks with the ability to perform these computations in real time. The first implementation, referred to as the BEAST (Bayesian Estimation and Stochastic Tracker), demonstrates a simple problem where an observer uses an underlying Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to track a target in one dimension. In this implementation, sensors make noisy observations of the target position at discrete time steps. The tracker learns the transition model for target movement, and the observation model for the noisy sensors, and uses these to estimate the target position by solving the Bayesian recursive equation online. We show the tracking performance of the system and demonstrate how it can learn the observation model, the transition model, and the external distractor (noise) probability interfering with the observations. In the second implementation, referred to as the Bayesian INference in DAG (BIND), we show how inference can be performed in a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) using stochastic circuits. We show how these building blocks can be easily implemented using simple digital logic gates. An advantage of the stochastic electronic implementation is that it is robust to certain types of noise, which may become an issue in integrated circuit (IC) technology with feature sizes in the order of tens of nanometers due to their low noise margin, the effect of high-energy cosmic rays and the low supply voltage. In our framework, the flipping of random individual bits would not affect the system performance because information is encoded in a bit stream.

  11. Inference with Linear Equality and Inequality Constraints Using R: The Package ic.infer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulrike Grömping

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available In linear models and multivariate normal situations, prior information in linear inequality form may be encountered, or linear inequality hypotheses may be subjected to statistical tests. R package ic.infer has been developed to support inequality-constrained estimation and testing for such situations. This article gives an overview of the principles underlying inequality-constrained inference that are far less well-known than methods for unconstrained or equality-constrained models, and describes their implementation in the package.

  12. Inferring Boolean network states from partial information

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Networks of molecular interactions regulate key processes in living cells. Therefore, understanding their functionality is a high priority in advancing biological knowledge. Boolean networks are often used to describe cellular networks mathematically and are fitted to experimental datasets. The fitting often results in ambiguities since the interpretation of the measurements is not straightforward and since the data contain noise. In order to facilitate a more reliable mapping between datasets and Boolean networks, we develop an algorithm that infers network trajectories from a dataset distorted by noise. We analyze our algorithm theoretically and demonstrate its accuracy using simulation and microarray expression data. PMID:24006954

  13. Inferring Evolutionary Scenarios for Protein Domain Compositions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiedenhoeft, John; Krause, Roland; Eulenstein, Oliver

    Essential cellular processes are controlled by functional interactions of protein domains, which can be inferred from their evolutionary histories. Methods to reconstruct these histories are challenged by the complexity of reconstructing macroevolutionary events. In this work we model these events using a novel network-like structure that represents the evolution of domain combinations, called plexus. We describe an algorithm to find a plexus that represents the evolution of a given collection of domain histories as phylogenetic trees with the minimum number of macroevolutionary events, and demonstrate its effectiveness in practice.

  14. Defeasible modes of inference: A preferential perspective

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Britz, K

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available of normality from the antecedent of an infer- ence to the effect of an action, and, importantly, use it in the scope of other logical constructors. The importance of defeasibility in specific modes of rea- soning is also illustrated by the following example..., then there are no accessi- ble worlds at all (and vice versa). j= p pi? $ 2i? (2) From (2) and contraposition we conclude j= 3i> $ p p i>. The following two equivalences are also worthy of men- tion (their proofs are straightforward): j= p pi> $ > and j= p p i...

  15. Abductive Inference using Array-Based Logic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frisvad, Jeppe Revall; Falster, Peter; Møller, Gert L.;

    The notion of abduction has found its usage within a wide variety of AI fields. Computing abductive solutions has, however, shown to be highly intractable in logic programming. To avoid this intractability we present a new approach to logicbased abduction; through the geometrical view of data...... employed in array-based logic we embrace abduction in a simple structural operation. We argue that a theory of abduction on this form allows for an implementation which, at runtime, can perform abductive inference quite efficiently on arbitrary rules of logic representing knowledge of finite domains....

  16. Inferring cultural models from corpus data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Kim Ebensgaard

    2015-01-01

    developed methods of inferring cultural models from observed behavior – in particular observed verbal behavior (including both spoken and written language). While there are plenty of studies of the reflection of cultural models in artificially generated verbal behavior, not much research has been made...... of constructional discursive behavior, the present paper offers a covarying collexeme analysis of the [too ADJ to V]-construction in the Corpus of Contemporary American English. The purpose is to discover the extent to which its force-dynamic constructional semantics interacts with cultural models. We focus...

  17. Conditional statistical inference with multistage testing designs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zwitser, Robert J; Maris, Gunter

    2015-03-01

    In this paper it is demonstrated how statistical inference from multistage test designs can be made based on the conditional likelihood. Special attention is given to parameter estimation, as well as the evaluation of model fit. Two reasons are provided why the fit of simple measurement models is expected to be better in adaptive designs, compared to linear designs: more parameters are available for the same number of observations; and undesirable response behavior, like slipping and guessing, might be avoided owing to a better match between item difficulty and examinee proficiency. The results are illustrated with simulated data, as well as with real data.

  18. Inverse Ising Inference Using All the Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aurell, Erik; Ekeberg, Magnus

    2012-03-01

    We show that a method based on logistic regression, using all the data, solves the inverse Ising problem far better than mean-field calculations relying only on sample pairwise correlation functions, while still computationally feasible for hundreds of nodes. The largest improvement in reconstruction occurs for strong interactions. Using two examples, a diluted Sherrington-Kirkpatrick model and a two-dimensional lattice, we also show that interaction topologies can be recovered from few samples with good accuracy and that the use of l1 regularization is beneficial in this process, pushing inference abilities further into low-temperature regimes.

  19. Generic Patch Inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jesper; Lawall, Julia Laetitia

    2008-01-01

    A key issue in maintaining Linux device drivers is the need to update drivers in response to evolutions in Linux internal libraries. Currently, there is little tool support for performing and documenting such changes. In this paper we present a tool, spfind, that identifies common changes made...... developers can use it to extract an abstract representation of the set of changes that others have made. Our experiments on recent changes in Linux show that the inferred generic patches are more concise than the corresponding patches found in commits to the Linux source tree while being safe with respect...

  20. Inferences on the common coefficient of variation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Lili

    2005-07-30

    The coefficient of variation is often used as a measure of precision and reproducibility of data in medical and biological science. This paper considers the problem of making inference about the common population coefficient of variation when it is a priori suspected that several independent samples are from populations with a common coefficient of variation. The procedures for confidence interval estimation and hypothesis testing are developed based on the concepts of generalized variables. The coverage properties of the proposed confidence intervals and type-I errors of the proposed tests are evaluated by simulation. The proposed methods are illustrated by a real life example.