Data-Driven Markov Decision Process Approximations for Personalized Hypertension Treatment Planning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Greggory J. Schell PhD

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Background: Markov decision process (MDP models are powerful tools. They enable the derivation of optimal treatment policies but may incur long computational times and generate decision rules that are challenging to interpret by physicians. Methods: In an effort to improve usability and interpretability, we examined whether Poisson regression can approximate optimal hypertension treatment policies derived by an MDP for maximizing a patient’s expected discounted quality-adjusted life years. Results: We found that our Poisson approximation to the optimal treatment policy matched the optimal policy in 99% of cases. This high accuracy translates to nearly identical health outcomes for patients. Furthermore, the Poisson approximation results in 104 additional quality-adjusted life years per 1000 patients compared to the Seventh Joint National Committee’s treatment guidelines for hypertension. The comparative health performance of the Poisson approximation was robust to the cardiovascular disease risk calculator used and calculator calibration error. Limitations: Our results are based on Markov chain modeling. Conclusions: Poisson model approximation for blood pressure treatment planning has high fidelity to optimal MDP treatment policies, which can improve usability and enhance transparency of more personalized treatment policies.

Strategic-decision quality in public organizations : an information processing perspective

OpenAIRE

George, Bert; Desmidt, Sebastian

2018-01-01

textabstractThis study draws on information processing theory to investigate predictors of strategic-decision quality in public organizations. Information processing theory argues that (a) rational planning practices contribute to strategic-decision quality by injecting information into decision making and (b) decision makers contribute to strategic-decision quality by exchanging information during decision making. These assumptions are tested upon 55 Flemish pupil guidance centers. Rational ...

Strategic planning decisions in the high tech industry

CERN Document Server

Daim, Tugrul; Beyhan, Berna; Basoglu, Nuri

2013-01-01

The scale and complexity of research and practices of open innovation mandate a correspondingly sophisticated form of decision making. Strategic Planning Decisions brings together a number of tools that ease the decision process in technology companies, providing both conceptual frameworks and practical applications. Innovative approaches are presented such as an ontology-based model where all the relevant aspects of a potential technology are interrelated to provide a comprehensive and logically connected data pool for decision makers. Divided into two sections, Strategic Planning Decisions describe both strategic approaches using the decision tools, and tactical approaches. Some of these tools are expanded while some others are embedded in a model that will lay the ground for practical application. These include: ·         bibliometric analysis, ·         ontology, ·         roadmapping, ·         lead user, six sigma, and ·         multi-actor & multi-object...

Strategy in Generative Planning of Turning Processes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Houten, Frederikus J.A.M.; Kals, H.J.J.

1986-01-01

This paper reports on the process and operations planning system ROUND and the strategies which underlie the decision making processes in the planning of turning operations. At first, an outline is given about the environment for which generative systems like ROUND are being developed. The

A decision support system for a multi stakeholder’s decision process in a Portuguese National Forest

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Garcia-Gonzalo

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Aim of study: In this paper, we present a decision support system (DSS to support decision making where different stakeholders have to generate landscape and forest level strategic plans. We further present an interactive approach that may take advantage of a posteriori preference modelling (i.e. Pareto frontier technique to facilitate the specification of the levels of achievement of various objectives.Area of study: The approach was applied to one planning cycle of a real world study case, the Leiria National Forest in Portugal. The Leiria National Forest, a managed area of approximately eleven thousand hectares in which 8,679 hectares are even aged stands of maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait aimed at the production of wood.Material and methods: The interactive approach, at first, tries to generate Pareto efficient frontiers for different objectives. Then, multiple decision makers are involved in the process to seek an agreement towards the definition of a consensual strategic plan.Main results: The system developed in this article integrates an information management subsystem, a module to generate alternative management regimes, growth model routines and a decision module that generates and solves mathematical formulations. It also provides a module to display reports and view the resulting solutions (management plans. We also build the Pareto frontier for different criteria. The results show that the proposed DSS can help solve strategic planning problems subject to sustainable management constraints where people organize themselves and participate jointly to manage their natural resources.Research highlights: The interactive approach facilitates the involvement of multiple stakeholders in the decision making process.Keywords: decision support system; participatory planning; linear programming; mixed integer goal programming; sustainable forest management.

Decision support tools for policy and planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jacyk, P.; Schultz, D.; Spangenberg, L.

1995-01-01

A decision support system (DSS) is being developed at the Radioactive Liquid Waste Treatment Facility, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The DSS will be used to evaluate alternatives for improving LANL's existing central radioactive waste water treatment plant and to evaluate new site-wide liquid waste treatment schemes that are required in order to handle the diverse waste streams produced at LANL. The decision support system consists of interacting modules that perform the following tasks: rigorous process simulation, configuration management, performance analysis, cost analysis, risk analysis, environmental impact assessment, transportation modeling, and local, state, and federal regulation compliance checking. Uncertainty handling techniques are used with these modules and also with a decision synthesis module which combines results from the modules listed above. We believe the DSS being developed can be applied to almost any other industrial water treatment facility with little modification because in most situations the waste streams are less complex, fewer regulations apply, and the political environment is simpler. The techniques being developed are also generally applicable to policy and planning decision support systems in the chemical process industry

Multicriteria Decisions in Urban Energy System Planning: A Review

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cajot, Sébastien, E-mail: sebastien.cajot@alumni.epfl.ch [European Institute for Energy Research, Karlsruhe (Germany); Industrial Process and Energy Systems Engineering Group, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Lausanne (Switzerland); Mirakyan, Atom [Energy Economics and Planning Department, Lahmeyer International, Bad Vilbel (Germany); Koch, Andreas [European Institute for Energy Research, Karlsruhe (Germany); Maréchal, François [Industrial Process and Energy Systems Engineering Group, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Lausanne (Switzerland)

2017-05-30

Urban energy system planning (UESP) is a topic of growing concern for cities in deregulated energy markets, which plan to decrease energy demand, reduce their dependency on fossil fuels, and increase the share of renewable energy sources. UESP being a highly multisectoral and multi-actor task, multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods are frequently used in the decision processes. These methods may provide support in organizing and identifying solutions to problems with conflicting objectives. However, knowing which method to use is generally not straightforward, as the appropriateness of a method or combination of methods depends on the decision problem’s context. Therefore, this article reviewed scientific papers to characterize and analyze MCDA problems and methods in the context of UESP. The review systematically explores issues such as the scope of the problems, the alternatives and criteria considered, the expected decision outcomes, the decision analysis methods and the rationales for selecting and combining them, and the role of values in driving the decision problems. The final outcome is a synthesis of the data and insights obtained, which may help potential users identify appropriate decision analysis methods based on given problem characteristics.

Multicriteria Decisions in Urban Energy System Planning: A Review

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cajot, Sébastien; Mirakyan, Atom; Koch, Andreas; Maréchal, François

2017-01-01

Urban energy system planning (UESP) is a topic of growing concern for cities in deregulated energy markets, which plan to decrease energy demand, reduce their dependency on fossil fuels, and increase the share of renewable energy sources. UESP being a highly multisectoral and multi-actor task, multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods are frequently used in the decision processes. These methods may provide support in organizing and identifying solutions to problems with conflicting objectives. However, knowing which method to use is generally not straightforward, as the appropriateness of a method or combination of methods depends on the decision problem’s context. Therefore, this article reviewed scientific papers to characterize and analyze MCDA problems and methods in the context of UESP. The review systematically explores issues such as the scope of the problems, the alternatives and criteria considered, the expected decision outcomes, the decision analysis methods and the rationales for selecting and combining them, and the role of values in driving the decision problems. The final outcome is a synthesis of the data and insights obtained, which may help potential users identify appropriate decision analysis methods based on given problem characteristics.

Between Policy-Making and Planning SEA and Strategic Decision-Making in the Danish Energy Sector

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lyhne, Ivar

2011-01-01

This article deals with the challenge of approaching decision-making processes through strategic environmental assessment (SEA). It is argued that the interaction between policy-making and planning in strategic decision-making processes is a neglected reason for problems with applying SEA......, as legislation and guidance on SEA primarily approach either the policy or plan level. To substantiate the argument, the extent of interaction is empirically investigated. Four contemporary decision-making processes in the Danish energy sector are mapped as a series of choices. Fundamental changes...... with considerable environmental impacts are decided these years, often without preceding SEA processes. The mapping shows a profound interaction between policy-making and planning. In this interaction, public consultation, systematic environmental analyses, and transparency on alternatives are primarily related...

Decision making, procedural compliance, and outcomes definition in U.S. forest service planning processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stern, Marc J.; Predmore, S. Andrew

2011-01-01

The National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) dictates a process of analyzing and disclosing the likely impacts of proposed agency actions on the human environment. This study addresses two key questions related to NEPA implementation in the U.S. Forest Service: 1) how do Interdisciplinary (ID) team leaders and decision makers conceptualize the outcomes of NEPA processes? And 2), how does NEPA relate to agency decision making? We address these questions through two separate online surveys that posed questions about recently completed NEPA processes - the first with the ID team leaders tasked with carrying out the processes, and the second with the line officers responsible for making the processes' final decisions. Outcomes of NEPA processes include impacts on public relations, on employee morale and team functioning, on the achievement of agency goals, and on the achievement of NEPA's procedural requirements (disclosure) and substantive intent (minimizing negative environmental impacts). Although both tended to view public relations outcomes as important, decision makers' perceptions of favorable outcomes were more closely linked to the achievement of agency goals and process efficiency than was the case for ID team leaders. While ID team leaders' responses suggest that they see decision making closely integrated with the NEPA process, decision makers more commonly decoupled decision making from the NEPA process. These findings suggest a philosophical difference between ID team leaders and decision makers that may pose challenges for both the implementation and the evaluation of agency NEPA. We discuss the pros and cons of integrating NEPA with decision making or separating the two. We conclude that detaching NEPA from decision making poses greater risks than integrating them.

Simulation-based decision support for evaluating operational plans

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Johan Schubert

2015-12-01

Full Text Available In this article, we describe simulation-based decision support techniques for evaluation of operational plans within effects-based planning. Using a decision support tool, developers of operational plans are able to evaluate thousands of alternative plans against possible courses of events and decide which of these plans are capable of achieving a desired end state. The objective of this study is to examine the potential of a decision support system that helps operational analysts understand the consequences of numerous alternative plans through simulation and evaluation. Operational plans are described in the effects-based approach to operations concept as a set of actions and effects. For each action, we examine several different alternative ways to perform the action. We use a representation where a plan consists of several actions that should be performed. Each action may be performed in one of several different alternative ways. Together these action alternatives make up all possible plan instances, which are represented as a tree of action alternatives that may be searched for the most effective sequence of alternative actions. As a test case, we use an expeditionary operation with a plan of 43 actions and several alternatives for these actions, as well as a scenario of 40 group actors. Decision support for planners is provided by several methods that analyze the impact of a plan on the 40 actors, e.g., by visualizing time series of plan performance. Detailed decision support for finding the most influential actions of a plan is presented by using sensitivity analysis and regression tree analysis. Finally, a decision maker may use the tool to determine the boundaries of an operation that it must not move beyond without risk of drastic failure. The significant contribution of this study is the presentation of an integrated approach for evaluation of operational plans.

H Scan/AHP decision process planning for evaluating and ranking of proposals submitted to the DOE hydrogen program

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Szoka de Valladares, M.R. [National Renwable Energy Lab., Washington, DC (United States); Mack, S. [Energtics, Washington, DC (United States)

1995-09-01

The DOE Hydrogen Program needs to develop criteria as part of a systematic evaluation process for proposal identification, evaluation and selection. The H Scan component of this process provides a framework in which a project proposer can fully describe their candidate technology system and its components. The H Scan complements traditional methods of capturing cost and technical information. It consists of a special set of survey forms designed to elicit information so expert reviewers can assess the proposal relative to DOE specified selection criteria. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) component of the decision process assembles the management defined evaluation and selection criteria into a coherent multi-level decision construct by which projects can be evaluated in pair-wise comparisons. The AHP model will reflect management`s objectives and it will assist in the ranking of individual projects based on the extent to which each contributes to management`s objectives. This paper contains a detailed description of the products and activities associated with the planning and evaluation process: The objectives or criteria; the H Scan; and The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP).

Markov decision processes in artificial intelligence

CERN Document Server

Sigaud, Olivier

2013-01-01

Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) are a mathematical framework for modeling sequential decision problems under uncertainty as well as Reinforcement Learning problems. Written by experts in the field, this book provides a global view of current research using MDPs in Artificial Intelligence. It starts with an introductory presentation of the fundamental aspects of MDPs (planning in MDPs, Reinforcement Learning, Partially Observable MDPs, Markov games and the use of non-classical criteria). Then it presents more advanced research trends in the domain and gives some concrete examples using illustr

A decision support system for planning biomass-based energy production

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Frombo, Francesco; Robba, Michela [DIST, Department of Communication, Computer and System Sciences, University of Genoa, Via Opera Pia 13, 16145 Genova (Italy); Renewable Energy Laboratory, Modelling and Optimization, Via A. Magliotto 2, 17100 Savona (Italy); Minciardi, Riccardo; Sacile, Roberto [DIST, Department of Communication, Computer and System Sciences, University of Genoa, Via Opera Pia 13, 16145 Genova (Italy)

2009-03-15

Environmental decision support systems (EDSS) are recognized as valuable tools for environmental planning and management. In this paper, a geographic information system (GIS)-based EDSS for the optimal planning of forest biomass use for energy production is presented. A user-friendly interface allows the creation of Scenarios and the running of the developed decision and environmental models. In particular, the optimization model regards decisions over a long-term period (e.g. years) and includes decision variables related to plant locations, conversion processes (pyrolisis, gasification, combustion), harvested biomass. Moreover, different energy products and different definitions of the harvesting and pre-treatment operations are taken into account. The correct management of the forest is considered through specific constraints, security factors, and procedures for parcel selection. The EDSS features and capabilities are described in detail, with specific reference to a case study. Discussion and further research are reported. (author)

Strategic planning decision making using fuzzy SWOT-TOPSIS with reliability factor

Science.gov (United States)

Mohamad, Daud; Afandi, Nur Syamimi; Kamis, Nor Hanimah

2015-10-01

Strategic planning is a process of decision making and action for long-term activities in an organization. The Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) analysis has been commonly used to help organizations in strategizing their future direction by analyzing internal and external environment. However, SWOT analysis has some limitations as it is unable to prioritize appropriately the multiple alternative strategic decisions. Some efforts have been made to solve this problem by incorporating Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods. Nevertheless, another important aspect has raised concerns on obtaining the decision that is the reliability of the information. Decision makers evaluate differently depending on their level of confidence or sureness in the evaluation. This study proposes a decision making procedure for strategic planning using SWOT-TOPSIS method by incorporating the reliability factor of the evaluation based on Z-number. An example using a local authority in the east coast of Malaysia is illustrated to determine the strategic options ranking and to prioritize factors in each SWOT category.

Strategic level proton therapy patient admission planning: a Markov decision process modeling approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Gedik, Ridvan; Zhang, Shengfan; Rainwater, Chase

2017-06-01

A relatively new consideration in proton therapy planning is the requirement that the mix of patients treated from different categories satisfy desired mix percentages. Deviations from these percentages and their impacts on operational capabilities are of particular interest to healthcare planners. In this study, we investigate intelligent ways of admitting patients to a proton therapy facility that maximize the total expected number of treatment sessions (fractions) delivered to patients in a planning period with stochastic patient arrivals and penalize the deviation from the patient mix restrictions. We propose a Markov Decision Process (MDP) model that provides very useful insights in determining the best patient admission policies in the case of an unexpected opening in the facility (i.e., no-shows, appointment cancellations, etc.). In order to overcome the curse of dimensionality for larger and more realistic instances, we propose an aggregate MDP model that is able to approximate optimal patient admission policies using the worded weight aggregation technique. Our models are applicable to healthcare treatment facilities throughout the United States, but are motivated by collaboration with the University of Florida Proton Therapy Institute (UFPTI).

A Decision Support System for Ship Maintenance Capacity Planning

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Boer, R.; Schutten, Johannes M.J.; Zijm, Willem H.M.

1997-01-01

In this paper, the basic framework and algorithms of a decision support system are discussed, which enhance process and capacity planning at a large repair shop. The research is strongly motivated by experiences in a project carried out at a dockyard, which performs repair, overhaul and modification

Evidence development and publication planning: strategic process.

Science.gov (United States)

Wittek, Michael R; Jo Williams, Mary; Carlson, Angeline M

2009-11-01

A number of decisions in the health care field rely heavily on published clinical evidence. A systematic approach to evidence development and publication planning is required to develop a portfolio of evidence that includes at minimum information on efficacy, safety, durability of effect, quality of life, and economic outcomes. The approach requires a critical assessment of available literature, identification of gaps in the literature, and a strategic plan to fill the gaps to ensure the availability of evidence demanded for clinical decisions, coverage/payment decisions and health technology assessments. The purpose of this manuscript is to offer a six-step strategic process leading to a portfolio of evidence that meets the informational needs of providers, payers, and governmental agencies concerning patient access to a therapy.

The application of Markov decision process with penalty function in restaurant delivery robot

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Yong; Hu, Zhen; Wang, Ying

2017-05-01

As the restaurant delivery robot is often in a dynamic and complex environment, including the chairs inadvertently moved to the channel and customers coming and going. The traditional Markov decision process path planning algorithm is not save, the robot is very close to the table and chairs. To solve this problem, this paper proposes the Markov Decision Process with a penalty term called MDPPT path planning algorithm according to the traditional Markov decision process (MDP). For MDP, if the restaurant delivery robot bumps into an obstacle, the reward it receives is part of the current status reward. For the MDPPT, the reward it receives not only the part of the current status but also a negative constant term. Simulation results show that the MDPPT algorithm can plan a more secure path.

A Generalized Decision Framework Using Multi-objective Optimization for Water Resources Planning

Science.gov (United States)

Basdekas, L.; Stewart, N.; Triana, E.

2013-12-01

Colorado Springs Utilities (CSU) is currently engaged in an Integrated Water Resource Plan (IWRP) to address the complex planning scenarios, across multiple time scales, currently faced by CSU. The modeling framework developed for the IWRP uses a flexible data-centered Decision Support System (DSS) with a MODSIM-based modeling system to represent the operation of the current CSU raw water system coupled with a state-of-the-art multi-objective optimization algorithm. Three basic components are required for the framework, which can be implemented for planning horizons ranging from seasonal to interdecadal. First, a water resources system model is required that is capable of reasonable system simulation to resolve performance metrics at the appropriate temporal and spatial scales of interest. The system model should be an existing simulation model, or one developed during the planning process with stakeholders, so that 'buy-in' has already been achieved. Second, a hydrologic scenario tool(s) capable of generating a range of plausible inflows for the planning period of interest is required. This may include paleo informed or climate change informed sequences. Third, a multi-objective optimization model that can be wrapped around the system simulation model is required. The new generation of multi-objective optimization models do not require parameterization which greatly reduces problem complexity. Bridging the gap between research and practice will be evident as we use a case study from CSU's planning process to demonstrate this framework with specific competing water management objectives. Careful formulation of objective functions, choice of decision variables, and system constraints will be discussed. Rather than treating results as theoretically Pareto optimal in a planning process, we use the powerful multi-objective optimization models as tools to more efficiently and effectively move out of the inferior decision space. The use of this framework will help CSU

Planning treatment of ischemic heart disease with partially observable Markov decision processes.

Science.gov (United States)

Hauskrecht, M; Fraser, H

2000-03-01

Diagnosis of a disease and its treatment are not separate, one-shot activities. Instead, they are very often dependent and interleaved over time. This is mostly due to uncertainty about the underlying disease, uncertainty associated with the response of a patient to the treatment and varying cost of different diagnostic (investigative) and treatment procedures. The framework of partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) developed and used in the operations research, control theory and artificial intelligence communities is particularly suitable for modeling such a complex decision process. In this paper, we show how the POMDP framework can be used to model and solve the problem of the management of patients with ischemic heart disease (IHD), and demonstrate the modeling advantages of the framework over standard decision formalisms.

Data for Participation and Participation as Data: Supporting Incremental Participatory Decision-Making in Urban Planning

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ddamba, Joshua; Dittrich, Yvonne

2015-01-01

Current literature on urban planning explores how to use ICT to support citizen participation. Advances in open data and its possibility to easily represent data on maps, opens up new opportunities to support participation and decision making in urban projects. This article investigates how spatial...... process and the decisions that are part of it. The paper concludes with design implications for decision support for urban planning. In future research, the intention is to explore these implications in a Participatory Design process....... of an urban renewal project, the article investigates the use of structured and unstructured data for participation. The fieldwork is conducted using ethnographically inspired methods, based on participatory observations, interviews and document analysis. As a result, the incremental decisions, the resulting...

A simple tool to help decision making in infrastructure planning and ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

2006-10-04

Oct 4, 2006 ... a tool to help decision making for planning and management of phytotreatment ... mental studies aimed at the quantitative estimation of biologi- cal processes .... water has been simulated with a logistic model assuming an.

Identification of Optimal Policies in Markov Decision Processes

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Sladký, Karel

46 2010, č. 3 (2010), s. 558-570 ISSN 0023-5954. [International Conference on Mathematical Methods in Economy and Industry. České Budějovice, 15.06.2009-18.06.2009] R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA402/08/0107; GA ČR GA402/07/1113 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : finite state Markov decision processes * discounted and average costs * elimination of suboptimal policies Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.461, year: 2010 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2010/E/sladky-identification of optimal policies in markov decision processes.pdf

Improvements to Strategic Planning and Implementation through Enhanced Correlation with Decision-Making Frameworks

Science.gov (United States)

McCready, John W.

2010-01-01

The purpose of this study was to examine use of decision-making tools and feedback in strategic planning in order to develop a rigorous process that would promote the efficiency of strategic planning for acquisitions in the United States Coast Guard (USCG). Strategic planning is critical to agencies such as the USCG in order to be effective…

Risk-Sensitive Multiagent Decision-Theoretic Planning Based on MDP and One-Switch Utility Functions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wei Zeng

2014-01-01

Full Text Available In high stakes situations decision-makers are often risk-averse and decision-making processes often take place in group settings. This paper studies multiagent decision-theoretic planning under Markov decision processes (MDPs framework with considering the change of agent’s risk attitude as his wealth level varies. Based on one-switch utility function that describes agent’s risk attitude change with his wealth level, we give the additive and multiplicative aggregation models of group utility and adopt maximizing expected group utility as planning objective. When the wealth level approaches infinity, the characteristics of optimal policy are analyzed for the additive and multiplicative aggregation model, respectively. Then a backward-induction method is proposed to divide the wealth level interval from negative infinity to initial wealth level into subintervals and determine the optimal policy in states and subintervals. The proposed method is illustrated by numerical examples and the influences of agent’s risk aversion parameters and weights on group decision-making are also analyzed.

Green Decision Making: Sustainable Transport and Systemic Planning (SP)

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Leleur, Steen

and infrastructure assessment and on the methodology and process of systemic planning (SP). SP theory development has interchanged with practical application and testing of the SP approach in a large number of cases. The word systemic in SP indicates that complex planning problems and provision of decision support...... in today’s strategic planning needs a focus on what may be addressed as systemic insights in balance with more conventional, systematically-based findings where causal linkages can be modelled and made use of. In practice this means that SP is based on a study-specific combination of hard (quantitative......) and soft (qualitative) operations research (OR) methods; especially the latter have a function as regards knowledge generation that relates to obtaining systemic insights. Furthermore, SP applies a process that drives group-based learning forward. The group should be formed with the different stakeholder...

A decision framework for coordinating bioterrorism planning: lessons from the BioNet program.

Science.gov (United States)

Manley, Dawn K; Bravata, Dena M

2009-01-01

Effective disaster preparedness requires coordination across multiple organizations. This article describes a detailed framework developed through the BioNet program to facilitate coordination of bioterrorism preparedness planning among military and civilian decision makers. The authors and colleagues conducted a series of semistructured interviews with civilian and military decision makers from public health, emergency management, hazardous material response, law enforcement, and military health in the San Diego area. Decision makers used a software tool that simulated a hypothetical anthrax attack, which allowed them to assess the effects of a variety of response actions (eg, issuing warnings to the public, establishing prophylaxis distribution centers) on performance metrics. From these interviews, the authors characterized the information sources, technologies, plans, and communication channels that would be used for bioterrorism planning and responses. The authors used influence diagram notation to describe the key bioterrorism response decisions, the probabilistic factors affecting these decisions, and the response outcomes. The authors present an overview of the response framework and provide a detailed assessment of two key phases of the decision-making process: (1) pre-event planning and investment and (2) incident characterization and initial responsive measures. The framework enables planners to articulate current conditions; identify gaps in existing policies, technologies, information resources, and relationships with other response organizations; and explore the implications of potential system enhancements. Use of this framework could help decision makers execute a locally coordinated response by identifying the critical cues of a potential bioterrorism event, the information needed to make effective response decisions, and the potential effects of various decision alternatives.

Implementation of a Web-Based Collaborative Process Planning System

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Huifen; Liu, Tingting; Qiao, Li; Huang, Shuangxi

Under the networked manufacturing environment, all phases of product manufacturing involving design, process planning, machining and assembling may be accomplished collaboratively by different enterprises, even different manufacturing stages of the same part may be finished collaboratively by different enterprises. Based on the self-developed networked manufacturing platform eCWS(e-Cooperative Work System), a multi-agent-based system framework for collaborative process planning is proposed. In accordance with requirements of collaborative process planning, share resources provided by cooperative enterprises in the course of collaboration are classified into seven classes. Then a reconfigurable and extendable resource object model is built. Decision-making strategy is also studied in this paper. Finally a collaborative process planning system e-CAPP is developed and applied. It provides strong support for distributed designers to collaboratively plan and optimize product process though network.

Business plans in bank decision-making when financing new ventures in South Africa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M Pretorius

2004-04-01

Full Text Available This article focuses on the position that South African commercial banks adopt when evaluating an application for finance of new business ventures. The role and importance of the business plan in the decision-making process is highlighted and investigated. This article begins to qualitatively describe the decision-making processes, criteria and processes instituted by the four major South African commercial banks that between them serve 96 per cent of the banking services for small business. It then questions the barriers placed on applicants applying for finance and recommends how these barriers can be removed. The article concludes that banks finance business ventures with poor potential for success if the applicant is creditworthy or has the necessary security rather than assist applicants with good plans and ventures with potential, but lacking sufficient security.

Group Decision Process Support

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gøtze, John; Hijikata, Masao

1997-01-01

Introducing the notion of Group Decision Process Support Systems (GDPSS) to traditional decision-support theorists.......Introducing the notion of Group Decision Process Support Systems (GDPSS) to traditional decision-support theorists....

Developing Holocaust Curricula: The Content Decision-Making Process

Science.gov (United States)

Lindquist, David H.

2008-01-01

The content decision-making process involved in developing Holocaust curricula is unusually complex and problematic. Educators must consider factors such as historical accuracy, selection of topics covered, potential teaching materials (such as textbooks and literary texts), and graphic materials (such as films and photographs) as they plan their…

Fuzzy methods in decision making process - A particular approach in manufacturing systems

Science.gov (United States)

Coroiu, A. M.

2015-11-01

We are living in a competitive environment, so we can see and understand that the most of manufacturing firms do the best in order to accomplish meeting demand, increasing quality, decreasing costs, and delivery rate. In present a stake point of interest is represented by the development of fuzzy technology. A particular approach for this is represented through the development of methodologies to enhance the ability to managed complicated optimization and decision making aspects involving non-probabilistic uncertainty with the reason to understand, development, and practice the fuzzy technologies to be used in fields such as economic, engineering, management, and societal problems. Fuzzy analysis represents a method for solving problems which are related to uncertainty and vagueness; it is used in multiple areas, such as engineering and has applications in decision making problems, planning and production. As a definition for decision making process we can use the next one: result of mental processes based upon cognitive process with a main role in the selection of a course of action among several alternatives. Every process of decision making can be represented as a result of a final choice and the output can be represented as an action or as an opinion of choice. Different types of uncertainty can be discovered in a wide variety of optimization and decision making problems related to planning and operation of power systems and subsystems. The mixture of the uncertainty factor in the construction of different models serves for increasing their adequacy and, as a result, the reliability and factual efficiency of decisions based on their analysis. Another definition of decision making process which came to illustrate and sustain the necessity of using fuzzy method: the decision making is an approach of choosing a strategy among many different projects in order to achieve some purposes and is formulated as three different models: high risk decision, usual risk

Multi-objective decisions in land-use planning involving chemical sites

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, B.; Bertelsen, I.; Burchard, V.

1999-01-01

A methodology for land-use planning involving chemical sites has been developed for making decisions in local and regional administrations. The methodology structures the planning process in seven steps, where one can loop through the steps several times.Essential parts of the methodology...... are the specification of objectives and the development of alternatives where the objectives sets the frame in which the alternatives are assessed and compared. The list of objectives includes the following items: safetyand accidents, public distortion and health, environmental impact, cultural and natural heritage...

North Slope Decision Support for Water Resource Planning and Management

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schnabel, William; Brumbelow, Kelly

2013-03-31

The objective of this project was to enhance the water resource decision-making process with respect to oil and gas exploration/production activities on Alaska’s North Slope. To this end, a web-based software tool was developed to allow stakeholders to assemble, evaluate, and communicate relevant information between and amongst themselves. The software, termed North Slope Decision Support System (NSDSS), is a visually-referenced database that provides a platform for running complex natural system, planning, and optimization models. The NSDSS design was based upon community input garnered during a series of stakeholder workshops, and the end product software is freely available to all stakeholders via the project website. The tool now resides on servers hosted by the UAF Water and Environmental Research Center, and will remain accessible and free-of-charge for all interested stakeholders. The development of the tool fostered new advances in the area of data evaluation and decision support technologies, and the finished product is envisioned to enhance water resource planning activities on Alaska’s North Slope.

Innovation Process Planning Model in the Bpmn Standard

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jurczyk-Bunkowska Magdalena

2013-12-01

Full Text Available The aim of the article is to show the relations in the innovation process planning model. The relations argued here guarantee the stable and reliable way to achieve the result in the form of an increased competitiveness by a professionally directed development of the company. The manager needs to specify the effect while initiating the realisation of the process, has to be achieved this by the system of indirect goals. The original model proposed here shows the standard of dependence between the plans of the fragments of the innovation process which make up for achieving its final goal. The relation in the present article was shown by using the standard Business Process Model and Notation. This enabled the specification of interrelations between the decision levels at which subsequent fragments of the innovation process are planned. This gives the possibility of a better coordination of the process, reducing the time needed for the achievement of its effect. The model has been compiled on the basis of the practises followed in Polish companies. It is not, however, the reflection of these practises, but rather an idealised standard of proceedings which aims at improving the effectiveness of the management of innovations on the operational level. The model shown could be the basis of the creation of systems supporting the decision making, supporting the knowledge management or those supporting the communication in the innovation processes.

Tax-Rate Biases in Tax-Planning Decisions: Experimental Evidence

OpenAIRE

Amberger, Harald; Eberhartinger, Eva; Kasper, Helmut

2016-01-01

Contrary to standard economic theory, recent empirical findings suggest that firms do not always engage in economically optimal tax planning. We conduct a laboratory experiment and find robust evidence that decision biases offer a behavioral explanation for suboptimal tax planning. When facing time pressure in an intra-group cross-border financing decision, subjects apply heuristics based on the salience of statutory tax rates. This stirs decision makers to underestimate the effects of tax-ba...

Decision support software technology demonstration plan

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

SULLIVAN,T.; ARMSTRONG,A.

1998-09-01

The performance evaluation of innovative and alternative environmental technologies is an integral part of the US Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) mission. Early efforts focused on evaluating technologies that supported the implementation of the Clean Air and Clean Water Acts. In 1986 the Agency began to demonstrate and evaluate the cost and performance of remediation and monitoring technologies under the Superfund Innovative Technology Evaluation (SITE) program (in response to the mandate in the Superfund Amendments and Reauthorization Act of 1986 (SARA)). In 1990, the US Technology Policy was announced. This policy placed a renewed emphasis on making the best use of technology in achieving the national goals of improved quality of life for all Americans, continued economic growth, and national security. In the spirit of the technology policy, the Agency began to direct a portion of its resources toward the promotion, recognition, acceptance, and use of US-developed innovative environmental technologies both domestically and abroad. Decision Support Software (DSS) packages integrate environmental data and simulation models into a framework for making site characterization, monitoring, and cleanup decisions. To limit the scope which will be addressed in this demonstration, three endpoints have been selected for evaluation: Visualization; Sample Optimization; and Cost/Benefit Analysis. Five topics are covered in this report: the objectives of the demonstration; the elements of the demonstration plan; an overview of the Site Characterization and Monitoring Technology Pilot; an overview of the technology verification process; and the purpose of this demonstration plan.

Exploring the decision-making process in the delivery of physiotherapy in a stroke unit.

Science.gov (United States)

McGlinchey, Mark P; Davenport, Sally

2015-01-01

The aim of this study was to explore the decision-making process in the delivery of physiotherapy in a stroke unit. A focused ethnographical approach involving semi-structured interviews and observations of clinical practice was used. A purposive sample of seven neurophysiotherapists and four patients participated in semi-structured interviews. From this group, three neurophysiotherapists and four patients were involved in observation of practice. Data from interviews and observations were analysed to generate themes. Three themes were identified: planning the ideal physiotherapy delivery, the reality of physiotherapy delivery and involvement in the decision-making process. Physiotherapists used a variety of clinical reasoning strategies and considered many factors to influence their decision-making in the planning and delivery of physiotherapy post-stroke. These factors included the therapist's clinical experience, patient's presentation and response to therapy, prioritisation, organisational constraints and compliance with organisational practice. All physiotherapists highlighted the importance to involve patients in planning and delivering their physiotherapy. However, there were varying levels of patient involvement observed in this process. The study has generated insight into the reality of decision-making in the planning and delivery of physiotherapy post-stroke. Further research involving other stroke units is required to gain a greater understanding of this aspect of physiotherapy. Implications for Rehabilitation Physiotherapists need to consider multiple patient, therapist and organisational factors when planning and delivering physiotherapy in a stroke unit. Physiotherapists should continually reflect upon how they provide physiotherapy, with respect to the duration, frequency and time of day sessions are delivered, in order to guide current and future physiotherapy delivery. As patients may demonstrate varying levels of participation in deciding and

Physician trainees' decision making and information processing: choice size and Medicare Part D.

Science.gov (United States)

Barnes, Andrew J; Hanoch, Yaniv; Martynenko, Melissa; Wood, Stacey; Rice, Thomas; Federman, Alex D

2013-01-01

Many patients expect their doctor to help them choose a Medicare prescription drug plan. Whether the size of the choice set affects clinicians' decision processes and strategy selection, and the quality of their choice, as it does their older patients, is an important question with serious financial consequences. Seventy medical students and internal medicine residents completed a within-subject design using Mouselab, a computer program that allows the information-acquisition process to be examined. We examined highly numerate physician trainees' decision processes, strategy, and their ability to pick the cheapest drug plan-as price was deemed the most important factor in Medicare beneficiaries' plan choice-from either 3 or 9 drug plans. Before adjustment, participants were significantly more likely to identify the lowest cost plan when facing three versus nine choices (67.3% vs. 32.8%, pinformation on each attribute (pdecision strategies focusing on comparing alternate plans across a single attribute (search pattern, pdecision process and strategy, numeracy, and amount of medical training, the odds were 10.75 times higher that trainees would choose the lowest cost Medicare Part D drug plan when facing 3 versus 9 drug plans (pdecision environment are needed and suggest physicians' role in their patients' Part D choices may be most productive when assisting seniors with forecasting their expected medication needs and then referring them to the Medicare website or helpline.

Renewable Energy Zone (REZ) Transmission Planning Process: A Guidebook for Practitioners

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Nathan [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Flores-Espino, Francisco [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hurlbut, David J. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2017-09-05

Achieving clean energy goals may require new investments in transmission, especially if planners anticipate economic growth and increased demand for electricity. The renewable energy zone (REZ) transmission planning process can help policymakers ensure their infrastructure investments achieve national goals in the most economical manner. Policymakers, planners, and system operators around the world have used variations of the REZ process to chart the expansion of their transmission networks and overcome the barriers of traditional transmission planning. This guidebook seeks to help power system planners, key decision makers, and stakeholders understand and use the REZ transmission planning process to integrate transmission expansion planning and renewable energy generation planning.

A Framework for Investigating Influence of Organizational Decision Makers on Data Mining Process Achievement

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hanieh Hajisafari

2012-02-01

Full Text Available Currently, few studies deal with evaluation of data mining plans in context of solvng organizational problems. A successful data miner is searching to solve a fully defined business problem. To make the data mining (DM results actionable, the data miner must explain them to the business insider. The interaction process between the business insiders and data miners is actually a knowledge-sharing process. In this study through representing a framwork, influence of organizational decision makers on data mining process and results investigated. By investigating research literature, the critical success factors of data mining plans was identified and the role of organizational decision makers in each step of data mining was investigated.‌ Then, the conceptual framework of influence of organizational decision makers on data mining process achievement was designed. By getting expert opinions, the proposed framework was analyzed and evantually designed the final framework of influence of organizational decision makers on data mining process achievement. Analysis of experts opinions showed that by knowledge sharing of data ming results with decision makers, "learning", "action or internalization" and "enforcing/unlearning" will become as critical success factors. Also, results of examining importance of decision makers' feedback on data mining steps showed that getting feedback from decision makers could have most influence on "knowledge extraction and representing model" step and least on "data cleaning and preprocessing" step.

Nuclear emergency response planning based on participatory decision analytic approaches

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sinkko, K.

2004-10-01

This work was undertaken in order to develop methods and techniques for evaluating systematically and comprehensively protective action strategies in the case of a nuclear or radiation emergency. This was done in a way that the concerns and issues of all key players related to decisions on protective actions could be aggregated into decision- making transparently and in an equal manner. An approach called facilitated workshop, based on the theory of Decision Analysis, was tailored and tested in the planning of actions to be taken. The work builds on case studies in which it was assumed that a hypothetical accident in a nuclear power plant had led to a release of considerable amounts of radionuclides and therefore different types of protective actions should be considered. Altogether six workshops were organised in which all key players were represented, i.e., the authorities, expert organisations, industry and agricultural producers. The participants were those responsible for preparing advice or presenting matters for those responsible for the formal decision-making. Many preparatory meetings were held with various experts to prepare information for the workshops. It was considered essential that the set-up strictly follow the decision- making process to which the key players are accustomed. Key players or stakeholders comprise responsible administrators and organisations, politicians as well as representatives of the citizens affected and other persons who will and are likely to take part in decision-making in nuclear emergencies. The realistic nature and the disciplined process of a facilitated workshop and commitment to decision-making yielded up insight in many radiation protection issues. The objectives and attributes which are considered in a decision on protective actions were discussed in many occasions and were defined for different accident scenario to come. In the workshops intervention levels were derived according justification and optimisation

Modelling and simulating decision processes of linked lives: An approach based on concurrent processes and stochastic race.

Science.gov (United States)

Warnke, Tom; Reinhardt, Oliver; Klabunde, Anna; Willekens, Frans; Uhrmacher, Adelinde M

2017-10-01

Individuals' decision processes play a central role in understanding modern migration phenomena and other demographic processes. Their integration into agent-based computational demography depends largely on suitable support by a modelling language. We are developing the Modelling Language for Linked Lives (ML3) to describe the diverse decision processes of linked lives succinctly in continuous time. The context of individuals is modelled by networks the individual is part of, such as family ties and other social networks. Central concepts, such as behaviour conditional on agent attributes, age-dependent behaviour, and stochastic waiting times, are tightly integrated in the language. Thereby, alternative decisions are modelled by concurrent processes that compete by stochastic race. Using a migration model, we demonstrate how this allows for compact description of complex decisions, here based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour. We describe the challenges for the simulation algorithm posed by stochastic race between multiple concurrent complex decisions.

Theoretical Approaches in the Context of Spatial Planning Decisions and the Relation with Urban Sustainability

Science.gov (United States)

Kumlu, Kadriye Burcu Yavuz; Tüdeş, Şule

2017-10-01

The sustainability agenda has maintained its importance since the days, when the production system took its capitalist form, as well as the population in the urban areas started to rise. Increasing number of both goods and the people have caused the degradation of the certain systems, which generate the urban areas. These systems could mainly be classified as social, environmental, physical and economical systems. Today, urban areas still have difficulty to protect those systems, due to the significant demand of the population. Therefore, studies related with the sustainable issues are significant in the sense of continuity of the urban systems. Therefore, in this paper, those studies in the context of the effects of physical decisions taken in the spatial planning process on urban sustainability, will be examined. The components of the physical decisions are limited to land use, density and design. Land use decisions will be examined in the context of mixed land use. On the other hand, decisions related with density will be analyzed in the sense of population density and floor area ratio (FAR). Besides, design decisions will be examined, by linking them with neighborhood design criteria. Additionally, the term of urban sustainability will only be limited to its social and environmental contexts in this study. Briefly stated, studies in the sustainable literature concerned with the effects of land use, density and design decisions taken in the spatial planning process on the social and environmental sustainability will be examined in this paper. After the compilation and the analyze of those studies, a theoretical approach will be proposed to determine social and environmental sustainability in the context of land use, density and design decisions, taken in the spatial planning process.

A Methodology to Support Decision Making in Flood Plan Mitigation

Science.gov (United States)

Biscarini, C.; di Francesco, S.; Manciola, P.

2009-04-01

The focus of the present document is on specific decision-making aspects of flood risk analysis. A flood is the result of runoff from rainfall in quantities too great to be confined in the low-water channels of streams. Little can be done to prevent a major flood, but we may be able to minimize damage within the flood plain of the river. This broad definition encompasses many possible mitigation measures. Floodplain management considers the integrated view of all engineering, nonstructural, and administrative measures for managing (minimizing) losses due to flooding on a comprehensive scale. The structural measures are the flood-control facilities designed according to flood characteristics and they include reservoirs, diversions, levees or dikes, and channel modifications. Flood-control measures that modify the damage susceptibility of floodplains are usually referred to as nonstructural measures and may require minor engineering works. On the other hand, those measures designed to modify the damage potential of permanent facilities are called non-structural and allow reducing potential damage during a flood event. Technical information is required to support the tasks of problem definition, plan formulation, and plan evaluation. The specific information needed and the related level of detail are dependent on the nature of the problem, the potential solutions, and the sensitivity of the findings to the basic information. Actions performed to set up and lay out the study are preliminary to the detailed analysis. They include: defining the study scope and detail, the field data collection, a review of previous studies and reports, and the assembly of needed maps and surveys. Risk analysis can be viewed as having many components: risk assessment, risk communication and risk management. Risk assessment comprises an analysis of the technical aspects of the problem, risk communication deals with conveying the information and risk management involves the decision process

A decision model for the risk management of hazardous processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holmberg, J.E.

1997-03-01

A decision model for risk management of hazardous processes as an optimisation problem of a point process is formulated in the study. In the approach, the decisions made by the management are divided into three categories: (1) planned process lifetime, (2) selection of the design and, (3) operational decisions. These three controlling methods play quite different roles in the practical risk management, which is also reflected in our approach. The optimisation of the process lifetime is related to the licensing problem of the process. It provides a boundary condition for a feasible utility function that is used as the actual objective function, i.e., maximizing the process lifetime utility. By design modifications, the management can affect the inherent accident hazard rate of the process. This is usually a discrete optimisation task. The study particularly concentrates upon the optimisation of the operational strategies given a certain design and licensing time. This is done by a dynamic risk model (marked point process model) representing the stochastic process of events observable or unobservable to the decision maker. An optimal long term control variable guiding the selection of operational alternatives in short term problems is studied. The optimisation problem is solved by the stochastic quasi-gradient procedure. The approach is illustrated by a case study. (23 refs.)

HOSPITAL SITE SELECTION USING TWO-STAGE FUZZY MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION MAKING PROCESS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ali Soltani

2011-06-01

Full Text Available Site selection for sitting of urban activities/facilities is one of the crucial policy-related decisions taken by urban planners and policy makers. The process of site selection is inherently complicated. A careless site imposes exorbitant costs on city budget and damages the environment inevitably. Nowadays, multi-attributes decision making approaches are suggested to use to improve precision of decision making and reduce surplus side effects. Two well-known techniques, analytical hierarchal process and analytical network process are among multi-criteria decision making systems which can easily be consistent with both quantitative and qualitative criteria. These are also developed to be fuzzy analytical hierarchal process and fuzzy analytical network process systems which are capable of accommodating inherent uncertainty and vagueness in multi-criteria decision-making. This paper reports the process and results of a hospital site selection within the Region 5 of Shiraz metropolitan area, Iran using integrated fuzzy analytical network process systems with Geographic Information System (GIS. The weights of the alternatives were calculated using fuzzy analytical network process. Then a sensitivity analysis was conducted to measure the elasticity of a decision in regards to different criteria. This study contributes to planning practice by suggesting a more comprehensive decision making tool for site selection.

HOSPITAL SITE SELECTION USING TWO-STAGE FUZZY MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION MAKING PROCESS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ali Soltani

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Site selection for sitting of urban activities/facilities is one of the crucial policy-related decisions taken by urban planners and policy makers. The process of site selection is inherently complicated. A careless site imposes exorbitant costs on city budget and damages the environment inevitably. Nowadays, multi-attributes decision making approaches are suggested to use to improve precision of decision making and reduce surplus side effects. Two well-known techniques, analytical hierarchal process and analytical network process are among multi-criteria decision making systems which can easily be consistent with both quantitative and qualitative criteria. These are also developed to be fuzzy analytical hierarchal process and fuzzy analytical network process systems which are capable of accommodating inherent uncertainty and vagueness in multi-criteria decision-making. This paper reports the process and results of a hospital site selection within the Region 5 of Shiraz metropolitan area, Iran using integrated fuzzy analytical network process systems with Geographic Information System (GIS. The weights of the alternatives were calculated using fuzzy analytical network process. Then a sensitivity analysis was conducted to measure the elasticity of a decision in regards to different criteria. This study contributes to planning practice by suggesting a more comprehensive decision making tool for site selection.

Sustainable energy planning decision using the intuitionistic fuzzy analytic hierarchy process: choosing energy technology in Malaysia: necessary modifications

Science.gov (United States)

Al-Qudaimi, Abdullah; Kumar, Amit

2018-05-01

Recently, Abdullah and Najib (International Journal of Sustainable Energy 35(4): 360-377, 2016) proposed an intuitionistic fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to deal with uncertainty in decision-making and applied it to establish preference in the sustainable energy planning decision-making of Malaysia. This work may attract the researchers of other countries to choose energy technology for their countries. However, after a deep study of the published paper (International Journal of Sustainable Energy 35(4): 362-377, 2016), it is noticed that the expression used by Abdullah and Najib in Step 6 of their proposed method for evaluating the intuitionistic fuzzy entropy of each aggregate of each row of intuitionistic fuzzy matrix is not valid. Therefore, it is not genuine to use the method proposed by Abdullah and Najib for solving real-life problems. The aim of this paper was to suggest the required necessary modifications for resolving the flaws of the Abdullah and Najib method.

Goals and plans in decision making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David H. Krantz

2007-06-01

Full Text Available We propose a constructed-choice model for general decision making. The model departs from utility theory and prospect theory in its treatment of multiple goals and it suggests several different ways in which context can affect choice. It is particularly instructive to apply this model to protective decisions, which are often puzzling. Among other anomalies, people insure against non-catastrophic events, underinsure against catastrophic risks, and allow extraneous factors to influence insurance purchases and other protective decisions. Neither expected-utility theory nor prospect theory can explain these anomalies satisfactorily. To apply this model to the above anomalies, we consider many different insurance-related goals, organized in a taxonomy, and we consider the effects of context on goals, resources, plans and decision rules. The paper concludes by suggesting some prescriptions for improving individual decision making with respect to protective measures.

Demonstration tools for the facility/land use planning process at Rocky Flats

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ryan, K.B.

1994-01-01

The new mission for the Rocky Flats Site states, open-quotes Manage waste and materials, clean up and convert the Rocky Flats Site to beneficial use in a manner that is safe, environmentally and socially responsible, physical secure, and cost-effective.close quotes. In addition, community recognition and support is encouraged and expected. To accomplish this ambitious mission of converting to another use and incorporating stakeholder input, many tools must be developed. These tools must be clearly understandable and readily available, with the hope and plan that similar outcomes will be much more apparent if the same or similar tools are applied by all decision markers, both internal and external. Since the task is monumental and extremely complex, establishing and understanding these available tools early in the planning process is important. All decision makers must be identified and the availability of the tools should be shared to eliminate redundancy and expedite the planning process. Most documents utilized for decision making are very technical in nature. Since numerous and varied stakeholders will be involved, these documents must be socialized or open-quotes detechnicalized.close quotes This paper discusses developing internal and universally acceptable demonstration tools for explaining how facilities and land will be analyzed for constraints and opportunities during the planning process

Approach of decision making based on the analytic hierarchy process for urban landscape management.

Science.gov (United States)

Srdjevic, Zorica; Lakicevic, Milena; Srdjevic, Bojan

2013-03-01

This paper proposes a two-stage group decision making approach to urban landscape management and planning supported by the analytic hierarchy process. The proposed approach combines an application of the consensus convergence model and the weighted geometric mean method. The application of the proposed approach is shown on a real urban landscape planning problem with a park-forest in Belgrade, Serbia. Decision makers were policy makers, i.e., representatives of several key national and municipal institutions, and experts coming from different scientific fields. As a result, the most suitable management plan from the set of plans is recognized. It includes both native vegetation renewal in degraded areas of park-forest and continued maintenance of its dominant tourism function. Decision makers included in this research consider the approach to be transparent and useful for addressing landscape management tasks. The central idea of this paper can be understood in a broader sense and easily applied to other decision making problems in various scientific fields.

Approach of Decision Making Based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process for Urban Landscape Management

Science.gov (United States)

Srdjevic, Zorica; Lakicevic, Milena; Srdjevic, Bojan

2013-03-01

This paper proposes a two-stage group decision making approach to urban landscape management and planning supported by the analytic hierarchy process. The proposed approach combines an application of the consensus convergence model and the weighted geometric mean method. The application of the proposed approach is shown on a real urban landscape planning problem with a park-forest in Belgrade, Serbia. Decision makers were policy makers, i.e., representatives of several key national and municipal institutions, and experts coming from different scientific fields. As a result, the most suitable management plan from the set of plans is recognized. It includes both native vegetation renewal in degraded areas of park-forest and continued maintenance of its dominant tourism function. Decision makers included in this research consider the approach to be transparent and useful for addressing landscape management tasks. The central idea of this paper can be understood in a broader sense and easily applied to other decision making problems in various scientific fields.

Information processing in decision-making systems.

Science.gov (United States)

van der Meer, Matthijs; Kurth-Nelson, Zeb; Redish, A David

2012-08-01

Decisions result from an interaction between multiple functional systems acting in parallel to process information in very different ways, each with strengths and weaknesses. In this review, the authors address three action-selection components of decision-making: The Pavlovian system releases an action from a limited repertoire of potential actions, such as approaching learned stimuli. Like the Pavlovian system, the habit system is computationally fast but, unlike the Pavlovian system permits arbitrary stimulus-action pairings. These associations are a "forward'' mechanism; when a situation is recognized, the action is released. In contrast, the deliberative system is flexible but takes time to process. The deliberative system uses knowledge of the causal structure of the world to search into the future, planning actions to maximize expected rewards. Deliberation depends on the ability to imagine future possibilities, including novel situations, and it allows decisions to be taken without having previously experienced the options. Various anatomical structures have been identified that carry out the information processing of each of these systems: hippocampus constitutes a map of the world that can be used for searching/imagining the future; dorsal striatal neurons represent situation-action associations; and ventral striatum maintains value representations for all three systems. Each system presents vulnerabilities to pathologies that can manifest as psychiatric disorders. Understanding these systems and their relation to neuroanatomy opens up a deeper way to treat the structural problems underlying various disorders.

Decision-making and planning in full recovery of anorexia nervosa.

Science.gov (United States)

Lindner, Susanne E; Fichter, Manfred M; Quadflieg, Norbert

2012-11-01

Based on findings of persisting neuropsychological impairments in women recovered from anorexia nervosa (rec AN), this study examined decision-making and planning, for achieving a desired goal, as central executive functions in a large sample of rec AN. The definition of recovery included physiological, behavioral, and psychological variables. A total of 100 rec AN women were compared to 100 healthy women, 1:1 matched for age and educational level. Decision-making was assessed with the Iowa Gambling Task and planning with the Tower of London. Expert interviews and self-ratings were used for assessing the inclusion/exclusion criteria and control variables. Compared to healthy controls, rec AN women were better in decision-making and worse in planning even after considering control variables. This study does not support results from other studies showing that rec AN participants perform better in decision-making. Results from this study show that planning is impaired even after full recovery from AN. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Tools of the Future: How Decision Tree Analysis Will Impact Mission Planning

Science.gov (United States)

Otterstatter, Matthew R.

2005-01-01

The universe is infinitely complex; however, the human mind has a finite capacity. The multitude of possible variables, metrics, and procedures in mission planning are far too many to address exhaustively. This is unfortunate because, in general, considering more possibilities leads to more accurate and more powerful results. To compensate, we can get more insightful results by employing our greatest tool, the computer. The power of the computer will be utilized through a technology that considers every possibility, decision tree analysis. Although decision trees have been used in many other fields, this is innovative for space mission planning. Because this is a new strategy, no existing software is able to completely accommodate all of the requirements. This was determined through extensive research and testing of current technologies. It was necessary to create original software, for which a short-term model was finished this summer. The model was built into Microsoft Excel to take advantage of the familiar graphical interface for user input, computation, and viewing output. Macros were written to automate the process of tree construction, optimization, and presentation. The results are useful and promising. If this tool is successfully implemented in mission planning, our reliance on old-fashioned heuristics, an error-prone shortcut for handling complexity, will be reduced. The computer algorithms involved in decision trees will revolutionize mission planning. The planning will be faster and smarter, leading to optimized missions with the potential for more valuable data.

Decision support in hierarchical planning systems: The case of procurement planning in oil refining industries

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kallestrup, Kasper Bislev; Lynge, Lasse Hadberg; Akkerman, Renzo

2014-01-01

In this paper, we discuss the development of decision support systems for hierarchically structured planning approaches, such as commercially available advanced planning systems. We develop a framework to show how such a decision support system can be designed with the existing organization in mind...... and from the perspective of the organizational aspects involved. To exemplify and develop our framework, we use a case study of crude oil procurement planning in the refining industry. The results of the case study indicate an improved organizational embedding of the DSS, leading to significant savings...... in terms of planning efforts and procurement costs. In general, our framework aims to support the continuous improvement of advanced planning systems, increasing planning quality in complex supply chain settings....

242-A Campaign 99-1 process control plan; FINAL

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

LE, E.Q.

1999-01-01

242-A Evaporator 99-1 will process approximately one million gallons of waste from tank 102-AW in June 1999. The process control Plan provides a general description of activities, which will occur during 242-A Evaporator Campaign 99-1 and to document analyses conducted to demonstrate that 102-AW waste is acceptable for processing. Predict is a registered trademark of Risk Decisions England Corporation, United Kingdom

Artificial intelligence framework for simulating clinical decision-making: a Markov decision process approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Bennett, Casey C; Hauser, Kris

2013-01-01

In the modern healthcare system, rapidly expanding costs/complexity, the growing myriad of treatment options, and exploding information streams that often do not effectively reach the front lines hinder the ability to choose optimal treatment decisions over time. The goal in this paper is to develop a general purpose (non-disease-specific) computational/artificial intelligence (AI) framework to address these challenges. This framework serves two potential functions: (1) a simulation environment for exploring various healthcare policies, payment methodologies, etc., and (2) the basis for clinical artificial intelligence - an AI that can "think like a doctor". This approach combines Markov decision processes and dynamic decision networks to learn from clinical data and develop complex plans via simulation of alternative sequential decision paths while capturing the sometimes conflicting, sometimes synergistic interactions of various components in the healthcare system. It can operate in partially observable environments (in the case of missing observations or data) by maintaining belief states about patient health status and functions as an online agent that plans and re-plans as actions are performed and new observations are obtained. This framework was evaluated using real patient data from an electronic health record. The results demonstrate the feasibility of this approach; such an AI framework easily outperforms the current treatment-as-usual (TAU) case-rate/fee-for-service models of healthcare. The cost per unit of outcome change (CPUC) was $189 vs. $497 for AI vs. TAU (where lower is considered optimal) - while at the same time the AI approach could obtain a 30-35% increase in patient outcomes. Tweaking certain AI model parameters could further enhance this advantage, obtaining approximately 50% more improvement (outcome change) for roughly half the costs. Given careful design and problem formulation, an AI simulation framework can approximate optimal

Non-technical factors impacting on the decision making processes in environmental remediation. Influences on the decision making process such as cost, planned land use and public perception

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2002-04-01

The IAEA attaches great importance to the dissemination of information that can assist Member States with the development, implementation, maintenance and continuous improvement of systems, programmes and activities that support the nuclear fuel cycle and nuclear applications, including the legacy of past practices and accidents. In response to this, the IAEA has initiated a comprehensive programme of work covering all aspects of environmental remediation: factors important for formulating a strategy for environmental remediation; site characterisation techniques and strategies; assessment of remediation technologies; assessment of technical options for cleanup of contaminated media; post-restoration compliance monitoring; assessment of the costs of remediation measures; remediation of low-level disperse radioactive contaminations in the environment. While this project mainly focus on technological aspects, non-technical factors will be influencing the decision making process in remediation decisively. Often their influence is only tacitly accepted and not explicitly acknowledged by the responsible decision makers. This makes it difficult to trace the decision making process in the event that it has to be revisited. The present publication attempts to make these factors explicit and to present methods to include them consciously into the decision making process

Strategic Decision-making,Action Planning,Flexible Creation:A Philosophic Thinking on Chinese City Development

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

2010-01-01

Based on the rich experience in urban construction in China for decades,the author argues that urban planning is a process of flexible creation under the guidance of strategic decision-making and action planning and in accordance with local conditions in hope of creating better human settlements and a harmonious society at the same time.Efforts should be made to strengthen the general knowledge and universal truth on urban planning and transform them into public consensus.

Optimization-based decision support to assist in logistics planning for hospital evacuations.

Science.gov (United States)

Glick, Roger; Bish, Douglas R; Agca, Esra

2013-01-01

The evacuation of the hospital is a very complex process and evacuation planning is an important part of a hospital's emergency management plan. There are numerous factors that affect the evacuation plan including the nature of threat, availability of resources and staff the characteristics of the evacuee population, and risk to patients and staff. The safety and health of patients is of fundamental importance, but safely moving patients to alternative care facilities while under threat is a very challenging task. This article describes the logistical issues and complexities involved in planning and execution of hospital evacuations. Furthermore, this article provides examples of how optimization-based decision support tools can help evacuation planners to better plan for complex evacuations by providing real-world solutions to various evacuation scenarios.

Comprehensive integrated planning: A process for the Oak Ridge Reservation, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1998-05-01

The Oak Ridge Comprehensive Integrated Plan is intended to assist the US Department of Energy (DOE) and contractor personnel in implementing a comprehensive integrated planning process consistent with DOE Order 430.1, Life Cycle Asset Management and Oak Ridge Operations Order 430. DOE contractors are charged with developing and producing the Comprehensive Integrated Plan, which serves as a summary document, providing information from other planning efforts regarding vision statements, missions, contextual conditions, resources and facilities, decision processes, and stakeholder involvement. The Comprehensive Integrated Plan is a planning reference that identifies primary issues regarding major changes in land and facility use and serves all programs and functions on-site as well as the Oak Ridge Operations Office and DOE Headquarters. The Oak Ridge Reservation is a valuable national resource and is managed on the basis of the principles of ecosystem management and sustainable development and how mission, economic, ecological, social, and cultural factors are used to guide land- and facility-use decisions. The long-term goals of the comprehensive integrated planning process, in priority order, are to support DOE critical missions and to stimulate the economy while maintaining a quality environment

Comprehensive integrated planning: A process for the Oak Ridge Reservation, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1998-05-01

The Oak Ridge Comprehensive Integrated Plan is intended to assist the US Department of Energy (DOE) and contractor personnel in implementing a comprehensive integrated planning process consistent with DOE Order 430.1, Life Cycle Asset Management and Oak Ridge Operations Order 430. DOE contractors are charged with developing and producing the Comprehensive Integrated Plan, which serves as a summary document, providing information from other planning efforts regarding vision statements, missions, contextual conditions, resources and facilities, decision processes, and stakeholder involvement. The Comprehensive Integrated Plan is a planning reference that identifies primary issues regarding major changes in land and facility use and serves all programs and functions on-site as well as the Oak Ridge Operations Office and DOE Headquarters. The Oak Ridge Reservation is a valuable national resource and is managed on the basis of the principles of ecosystem management and sustainable development and how mission, economic, ecological, social, and cultural factors are used to guide land- and facility-use decisions. The long-term goals of the comprehensive integrated planning process, in priority order, are to support DOE critical missions and to stimulate the economy while maintaining a quality environment.

The usefulness of Decision Support Systems in participatory forest planning: a comparison between Finland and Italy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. De Meo

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Aim of study: Participation of stakeholders is considered an essential element in producing, at different spatial and temporal scales, forest plans accepted by local community and fulfilling the requirements of Sustainable Forest Management. Increasingly, computer-based decision support systems (DSS and tools are being introduced to assist stakeholders and decision-makers in coping with the complexities inherent in participatory forest planning. The study aimed to investigate how useful the users and researchers see DSS tools and which opportunities they perceive DSS might carry for enhancing participatory forest planning in their field of activity.Area of study: 15 Italian and Finnish researchers and practitioners were interviewed.Material and Methods:  Face-to-face structured interviews were used to collect opinions and experiences. Quantitative and qualitative information were analyzed to investigate differences between Italian and Finnish respondents as well as between researchers and practitionersMain results: Results showed that in Italy there has been more focus on forest-level and medium-term problems and the intelligence phase, while in Finland there has been more attention to region-level and long-term problems and equally intelligence, design, and choice phases of decision-making. Deviations probably reflect different planning contexts and culture, variability in experiences and expertise in DSS and in availability of suitable DSS.Research highlights: The study suggests to pay attention to evaluating the success criteria of participatory planning when preparing for the use of DSS and related tools in practical forest planning processes. Experience sharing is a key to reaching more successful use of DSS.Keywords: computer-based decision support; participatory processes; spatial scale; success criteria; temporal scale; users' perception.

Assessing the structure of non-routine decision processes in Airline Operations Control.

Science.gov (United States)

Richters, Floor; Schraagen, Jan Maarten; Heerkens, Hans

2016-03-01

Unfamiliar severe disruptions challenge Airline Operations Control professionals most, as their expertise is stretched to its limits. This study has elicited the structure of Airline Operations Control professionals' decision process during unfamiliar disruptions by mapping three macrocognitive activities on the decision ladder: sensemaking, option evaluation and action planning. The relationship between this structure and decision quality was measured. A simulated task was staged, based on which think-aloud protocols were obtained. Results show that the general decision process structure resembles the structure of experts working under routine conditions, in terms of the general structure of the macrocognitive activities, and the rule-based approach used to identify options and actions. Surprisingly, high quality of decision outcomes was found to relate to the use of rule-based strategies. This implies that successful professionals are capable of dealing with unfamiliar problems by reframing them into familiar ones, rather than to engage in knowledge-based processing. Practitioner Summary: We examined the macrocognitive structure of Airline Operations Control professionals' decision process during a simulated unfamiliar disruption in relation to decision quality. Results suggest that successful professionals are capable of dealing with unfamiliar problems by reframing them into familiar ones, rather than to engage in knowledge-based processing.

Planning and decision making for aerial robots

CERN Document Server

Bestaoui Sebbane, Yasmina

2014-01-01

This book provides an introduction to the emerging field of planning and decision making for aerial robots. An aerial robot is the ultimate form of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle, an aircraft endowed with built-in intelligence, requiring no direct human control and able to perform a specific task. It must be able to fly within a partially structured environment, to react and adapt to changing environmental conditions and to accommodate for the uncertainty that exists in the physical world. An aerial robot can be termed as a physical agent that exists and flies in the real 3D world, can sense its environment and act on it to achieve specific goals. So throughout this book, an aerial robot will also be termed as an agent.   Fundamental problems in aerial robotics include the tasks of spatial motion, spatial sensing and spatial reasoning. Reasoning in complex environments represents a difficult problem. The issues specific to spatial reasoning are planning and decision making. Planning deals with the trajectory algori...

Client Satisfaction And Decision Making Amongst Females Visiting Family Planning Clinics In Hyderabad, Pakistan.

Science.gov (United States)

Memon, Arbia; Hamid, Saima; Kumar, Ramesh

2017-01-01

Family Planning is the basic right of the human being. It involves decision regarding the number of children and desired space between children by the couple themselves. Quality services involving multiple dimensions build the confidence of the clients and lack of quality is one of the constraints behind incomplete coverage of family planning. Objectives of the current study were to determine the client satisfaction, decision-making process and various influences on clients in adopting family planning methods. This cross-sectional study was conducted at Family Planning Centre of Liaquat University Hospital, Hyderabad in 2016. Quality of the family planning services and satisfaction with the services were assessed through responses obtained from women selected purposively and visiting family planning centre through exit interviews with structured pretested and reliable questionnaire after taking the written consent. Access to Family Planning Centre was not an issue in 92% cases but only 31% respondents were appropriately greeted, 77% faced blank expression and 13% received sufficient privacy. Health problems and socioeconomic conditions were inquired by 41% and18% providers respectively, while motivating force for service use was mother in law in most 35% cases. Health workers were successful in clarifying misinformation (86%) and explaining side effects (71%) but only 21% respondents were satisfied with services. Respondents are influenced by family and health care providers while making decision and type of influence was considered positive by 83% respondents. Training and monitoring system be strengthened at family planning centres to improve quality of services while important influencing relations be focused for family planning education to improve utilization of services.

Green Decision Making: How Systemic Planning can support Strategic Decision Making for Sustainable Transport Development

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Leleur, Steen

for Strategic Management. The book was published in 2012 by Springer-Verlag, London, as a research monograph in the publisher’s series about Decision Engineering. The intention behind this new book – with its focus upon ‘greening’ of strategic decisions – is to provide a general and less technical description......The book is based on my participation in the SUSTAIN research project 2012-2017 about National Sustainable Transport Planning funded by the Danish Research Council (Innovationsfonden). Many of the issues treated here have a backdrop in my book Complex Strategic Choices – Applying Systemic Planning...... to this application area. In fact a company relocation decision case has been used to introduce the potential of SP as regards providing decision support for strategic decision making. A main concern in this presentation of SP, which deviates from the Springer book referred to above, is to highlight that ‘greening...

Career Development Strivings: Assessing Goals and Motivation in Career Decision-Making and Planning

Science.gov (United States)

Dik, Bryan J.; Sargent, Adam M.; Steger, Michael F.

2008-01-01

This article describes and demonstrates a novel approach to assessing goals and motives among individuals engaged in the career decision-making and planning process. Participants generated five career development strivings, rated each striving along several dimensions (self-efficacy, outcome expectations, sense of calling, spiritual significance,…

Two levels decision system for efficient planning and implementation of bioenergy production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ayoub, Nasser; Martins, Ricardo; Wang, Kefeng; Seki, Hiroya; Naka, Yuji

2007-01-01

When planning bioenergy production from biomass, planners should take into account each and every stakeholder along the biomass supply chains, e.g. biomass resources suppliers, transportation, conversion and electricity suppliers. Also, the planners have to consider social concerns, environmental and economical impacts related with establishing the biomass systems and the specific difficulties of each country. To overcome these problems in a sustainable manner, a robust decision support system is required. For that purpose, a two levels general Bioenergy Decision System (gBEDS) for bioenergy production planning and implementation was developed. The core part of the gBEDS is the information base, which includes the basic bioenergy information and the detailed decision information. Basic bioenergy information include, for instance, the geographical information system (GIS) database, the biomass materials' database, the biomass logistic database and the biomass conversion database. The detailed decision information considers the parameters' values database with their default values and the variables database, values obtained by simulation and optimization. It also includes a scenario database, which is used for demonstration to new users and also for case based reasoning by planners and executers. Based on the information base, the following modules are included to support decision making: the simulation module with graph interface based on the unit process (UP) definition and the genetic algorithms (GAs) methods for optimal decisions and the Matlab module for applying data mining methods (fuzzy C-means clustering and decision trees) to the biomass collection points, to define the location of storage and bioenergy conversion plants based on the simulation and optimization model developed of the whole life cycle of bioenergy generation. Furthermore, Matlab is used to set up a calculation model with crucial biomass planning parameters (e.g. costs, CO 2 emissions), over

Study of decision framework of wind farm project plan selection under intuitionistic fuzzy set and fuzzy measure environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu, Yunna; Geng, Shuai; Xu, Hu; Zhang, Haobo

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Experts’ opinions are expressed by using the intuitionistic fuzzy values. • Fuzzy measure is used to solve the dependence problem of criteria. • The compensatory problem of performance scores is reasonably processed. - Abstract: Project selection plays an important role in the entire life cycle of wind farm project and the multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) methods are very important in the whole wind farm project plan selection process. There are problems in the present MCDM methods decrease evaluation quality of the wind farm project plans: first, the information loss exists in the wind farm project plan evaluation process. Second, it is difficult to satisfy the independent assumption of the multi-criteria decision making methods used in the wind farm project plan evaluation in fact. Third, the compensatory problem of performance scores of the wind farm project plans is processed unreasonably. Hence the innovation points of this paper are as follows: first, the intuitionistic fuzzy numbers are used instead of fuzzy numbers or numerical values to reflect the experts’ intuitive preferences to decrease the probability of information loss; second, the fuzzy measure is used to rate the important degrees of criteria in order to avoid the independent assumption and to increase the reasonability; third, the partial compensatory problem of performance scores is well processed by using intuitionistic fuzzy Choquet (IFC) operator and generalized intuitionistic fuzzy ordered geometric averaging (GIFOGA) operator. These operators can deal with the compensatory performance scores and non-compensatory performance scores respectively. Finally, a case study demonstrates the effectiveness of decision framework

Technology decision making. A constructive approach to planning and acquisition will require a paradigm shift.

Science.gov (United States)

Berkowitz, D A; Swan, M M

1993-01-01

Technology should be viewed as an integrating rather than a divisive element in hospital planning. In the past, technology decision-making responsibility has often been diffused throughout hospitals, but providers are beginning to take a more considered and coherent approach. The process of making decisions about technology has four key elements: assessment, planning, acquisition, and management. The most important aspect of the assessment phase is the formation of a technology advisory committee to review and evaluate requests for new and emerging technology; review capital budget requests for new and replacement technology; and set mission-based and strategic priorities for new, emerging, and replacement technologies. Technology planning allows hospitals to set long-term goals for technology acquisition. The process involves an audit of existing technologies, evaluation of other hospitals' technologies, and review of technology trends. A well-defined technology plan will, in turn, facilitate the acquisition and management process, allowing hospitals greater flexibility in negotiating costs and budgeting for training, spare parts, service, upgrades, and support. By pooling resources with other providers in their region, hospitals can further enhance the effectiveness of their use and acquisition of technology. Collaboration allows providers to share the risks of technologically volatile and intensive services and avoid costly duplication of equipment and facilities.

Fast Interactive Decision Support for Modifying Stowage Plans Using Binary Decision Diagrams

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Rune Møller; Leknes, Eilif; Bebbington, Thomas

Low cost containerized shipping requires high quality stowage plans. Scalable stowage planning optimization algorithms have been developed recently. All of these algorithms, however, produce monolithic solutions that are hard for stowage coordinators to modify, which is necessary in practice due ...... fast, complete, and backtrack-free decision support. Our computational results show that the approach can solve real-sized instances when breaking symmetries among similar containers...

Maintenance planning support method for nuclear power plants based on collective decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shimizu, Shunichi; Sakurai, Shoji; Takaoka, Kazushi; Kanemoto, Shigeru; Fukutomi, Shigeki

1992-01-01

Inspection and maintenance planning in nuclear power plants is conducted by decision making based on experts' collective consensus. However, since a great deal of time and effort is required to reach a consensus among expert judgments, the establishment of effective decision making methods is necessary. Therefore, the authors developed a method for supporting collective decision making, based on a combination of three types of decision making methods; the Characteristic Diagram method, Interpretative Structural Modeling method, and the Analytic Hierarchy Process method. The proposed method enables us to determine the evaluation criteria systematically for collective decision making, and also allows extracting collective decisions using simplified questionnaires. The proposed method can support reaching a consensus of groups effectively through the evaluation of collective decision structural models and their characteristics. In this paper, the effectiveness of the proposed method was demonstrated through its application to the decision making problem concerning whether or not the improved ultrasonic testing equipment should be adopted at nuclear power plants. (author)

RECOVER: An Automated, Cloud-Based Decision Support System for Post-Fire Rehabilitation Planning

Science.gov (United States)

Schnase, J. L.; Carroll, M. L.; Weber, K. T.; Brown, M. E.; Gill, R. L.; Wooten, M.; May, J.; Serr, K.; Smith, E.; Goldsby, R.; Newtoff, K.; Bradford, K.; Doyle, C.; Volker, E.; Weber, S.

2014-11-01

RECOVER is a site-specific decision support system that automatically brings together in a single analysis environment the information necessary for post-fire rehabilitation decision-making. After a major wildfire, law requires that the federal land management agencies certify a comprehensive plan for public safety, burned area stabilization, resource protection, and site recovery. These burned area emergency response (BAER) plans are a crucial part of our national response to wildfire disasters and depend heavily on data acquired from a variety of sources. Final plans are due within 21 days of control of a major wildfire and become the guiding document for managing the activities and budgets for all subsequent remediation efforts. There are few instances in the federal government where plans of such wide-ranging scope and importance are assembled on such short notice and translated into action more quickly. RECOVER has been designed in close collaboration with our agency partners and directly addresses their high-priority decision-making requirements. In response to a fire detection event, RECOVER uses the rapid resource allocation capabilities of cloud computing to automatically collect Earth observational data, derived decision products, and historic biophysical data so that when the fire is contained, BAER teams will have a complete and ready-to-use RECOVER dataset and GIS analysis environment customized for the target wildfire. Initial studies suggest that RECOVER can transform this information-intensive process by reducing from days to a matter of minutes the time required to assemble and deliver crucial wildfire-related data.

RECOVER: An Automated Cloud-Based Decision Support System for Post-fire Rehabilitation Planning

Science.gov (United States)

Schnase, John L.; Carroll, Mark; Weber, K. T.; Brown, Molly E.; Gill, Roger L.; Wooten, Margaret; May J.; Serr, K.; Smith, E.; Goldsby, R.;

30 CFR 746.13 - Decision document and recommendation on mining plan.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 30 Mineral Resources 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Decision document and recommendation on mining plan. 746.13 Section 746.13 Mineral Resources OFFICE OF SURFACE MINING RECLAMATION AND ENFORCEMENT, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR FEDERAL LANDS PROGRAM REVIEW AND APPROVAL OF MINING PLANS § 746.13 Decision...

A key to success: optimizing the planning process

Science.gov (United States)

Turk, Huseyin; Karakaya, Kamil

2014-05-01

By adopting The NATO Strategic Concept Document in 2010, some important changes in the perception of threat and management of crisis were introduced. This new concept, named ''Comprehensive Approach'', includes the precautions of pre-crisis management, applications of crisis-duration management and reconstruction phase of post-intervention management. NATO will be interested in not only the political and military options , but also social, economical and informational aspects of crisis. NATO will take place in all phases of conflict. The conflicts which occur outside the borders of NATO's nations and terrorism are perceived as threat sources for peace and stability. In addition to conventional threats, cyber attacks which threaten network-supported communication systems, preventing applications from accessing to space that will be used in different fields of life. On the other hand, electronic warfare capabilities which can effect us negatively are added to threat list as new threats. In the process in which military is thought as option, a harder planning phase is waiting for NATO's decision makers who struggle for keeping peace and security. Operation planning process which depends on comprehensive approach, contains these steps: Situational awareness of battlefield, evaluation of the military intervention options, orientation, developing an operation plan, reviewing the plan and transition phases.1 To be successful in theater which is always changing with the technological advances, there has to be an accurate and timely planning on the table. So, spending time for planning can be shown as one of the biggest problem. In addition, sustaining situational awareness which is important for the whole operation planning process, technical command and control hitches, human factor, inability to determine the center of gravity of opponent in asymmetrical threat situations can be described as some of the difficulties in operation planning. In this study, a possible air

Public involvement in the decision making process, Argentine experience

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clein, D.

1999-01-01

In the frame of a young participative democracy the Comision Nacional de Energia Atomica (C.N.E.A.), technical and legal responsible for radioactive waste management, is developing a plan for the close out of tailings facilities from past mining and milling operations and the environmental restoration of nine different sites in six provinces all over the country. In the first site, Malargue Facility, different activities have been developed promoting public involvement in the decision making process. The lessons learned and the experience acquired have given the background for the systematization of public consultation in the ongoing and future stages of the plan. Malargue's experience in this field will be analyzed stressing on different aspects considered of importance for the design of a communicational strategy adapted to the characteristics of a society without experience in this field. The influence of public concern on conservative bias of technical decisions will be evaluated. (author)

Group Decision Making in Higher Education Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process.

Science.gov (United States)

Liberatore, Matthew J.; Nydick, Robert L.

1997-01-01

Examines application of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to group decision-making and evaluation situations in higher education. The approach is illustrated by (1) evaluation of academic research papers at Villanova University (Pennsylvania), and (2) a suggested adaptation for the more complex problem of institutionwide strategic planning.…

200 Area effluent treatment facility process control plan 98-02

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Le, E.Q.

1998-01-01

This Process Control Plan (PCP) provides a description of the background information, key objectives, and operating criteria defining Effluent Treatment Facility (ETF) Campaign 98-02 as required per HNF-IP-0931 Section 37, Process Control Plans. Campaign 98-62 is expected to process approximately 18 millions gallons of groundwater with an assumption that the UP-1 groundwater pump will be shut down on June 30, 1998. This campaign will resume the UP-1 groundwater treatment operation from Campaign 97-01. The Campaign 97-01 was suspended in November 1997 to allow RCRA waste in LERF Basin 42 to be treated to meet the Land Disposal Restriction Clean Out requirements. The decision to utilize ETF as part of the selected interim remedial action of the 200-UP-1 Operable Unit is documented by the Declaration of the Record of Decision, (Ecology, EPA and DOE 1997). The treatment method was chosen in accordance with the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA) as amended by the Superfund Amendments and Reauthorization Act of 1986 (SARA), the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (known as the Tri-Party Agreement or TPA), and to the extent practicable, the National Oil and Hazardous Substances Pollution Contingency Plan (NCP)

Development and application of a decision support tool for reduction of product losses in the food-processing industry

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Akkerman, Renzo; van Donk, Dirk Pieter

2008-01-01

In food-processing industries, reduction of product losses is important for improving profitability and sustainability. This paper presents a decision support tool for analyzing the effects of planning decisions on the amount of product losses in the food-processing industry. We created a research

32 CFR 865.110 - Decision process.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 32 National Defense 6 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Decision process. 865.110 Section 865.110...-GENERAL PERSONNEL REVIEW BOARDS Air Force Discharge Review Board § 865.110 Decision process. (a) The DRB... decision making process. ...

Motivated information processing and group decision-making : Effects of process accountability on information processing and decision quality

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Scholten, Lotte; van Knippenberg, Daan; Nijstad, Bernard A.; De Dreu, Carsten K. W.

Integrating dual-process models [Chaiken, S., & Trope, Y. (Eds.). (1999). Dual-process theories in social psychology. NewYork: Guilford Press] with work on information sharing and group decision-making [Stasser, G., & Titus, W. (1985). Pooling of unshared information in group decision making: biased

Benefits to blood banks of a sales and operations planning process.

Science.gov (United States)

Keal, Donald A; Hebert, Phil

2010-12-01

A formal sales and operations planning (S&OP) process is a decision making and communication process that balances supply and demand while integrating all business operational components with customer-focused business plans that links high level strategic plans to day-to-day operations. Furthermore, S&OP can assist in managing change across the organization as it provides the opportunity to be proactive in the face of problems and opportunities while establishing a plan for everyone to follow. Some of the key outcomes from a robust S&OP process in blood banking would include: higher customer satisfaction (donors and health care providers), balanced inventory across product lines and customers, more stable production rates and higher productivity, more cooperation across the entire operation, and timely updates to the business plan resulting in better forecasting and fewer surprises that negatively impact the bottom line. © 2010 American Association of Blood Banks.

Safety assessment as basis for the decision making process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ilie, P.; Didita, L.; Danchiv, A.

2005-01-01

This paper deals with the safety assessment for a new near surface repository, particularly for the early stage of repository development using ISAM (Improvement of Safety Assessment Methodologies for Near Surface Disposal Facilities) safety assessment methodology. In this stage of the repository life cycle the main purpose of the safety assessment is to demonstrate that the plant is capable to be constructed and operated safely. The paper is based on development of the ASAM (Application of the Safety Assessment Methodologies for Near-Surface Disposal Facilities) Decision Support Subgroup of the Common Aspects Working Group. The implications of decision making for the application of the ISAM methodology on post-closure safety assessment are analysed. Some important elements of the decision-making process with impact on key components of the ISAM process are described. Following the development of Decision Support Subgroup of the ASAM Common Aspects Working Group the proposed change of ISAM methodology is analysed. This approach puts all activities in a decision context where the first iteration of the safety assessment is based on the existing state of knowledge and the initial engineering design. Confidence in the process is accomplished through the direct inclusion of all decision makers and stakeholders in the formulation of decisions, the definition of the state of knowledge, and decision making activities. The decision process is developed in context of undertaking assessments with little site-specific information, this situation is specifically for new planned repository. Limited site-specific information can result in a high degree of uncertainty, therefore it is important first of all to identify the sources of uncertainty arising from the limited nature of the site-specific information and then to apply appropriate approaches to manage the uncertainties and to determine whether the uncertainties are important to the overall safety of the disposal facility

Pre-planned versus unplanned decision making in the case of environmental decontamination

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Paschoa, A.S.; Tranjan Filho, A.

2000-01-01

Until a few years ago it was not usual to pre-plan realistic countermeasures directly related to a radiological emergency or a nuclear accident (RENA), mostly because the probability of occurrence of such events was considered to be too low for real concern. The Three Mile Island, Chernobyl and Goiania accidents, however, changed long accepted views of the decision making community throughout the world. Today, meetings are being held just to discuss how one can go about making decisions to face the problems that may occur in a number of RENAs. The present work will examine several well established scientifically based radiological criteria to be used in decision making processes concerning either radioactive decontamination following a severe RENA, or decommissioning procedures. Such criteria can certainly be used to select pre-planned countermeasures, but can also be helpful as guidance to decision makers when facing a choice of untested and unplanned options. Selected advantages and disadvantages of each criterion based option will be presented and briefly discussed, as, for example, the amount of radioactive waste produced vis-B-vis the risk (concentration or projected dose) level adopted in the decontamination procedures. In addition, non-scientific aspects will be brought into the discussion, because their social, economical, and political implications cannot be ignored by responsible decision makers. Uncertainties associated with both non-scientific aspects and scientifically based environmental and dosimetric models will also be examined for specific cases. (author)

Application of multi-criteria decision making to sustainable energy planning - a review

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pohekar, S.D.; Ramachandram, M. [Birla Inst. of Technology and Science, Pilani (India)

2004-08-01

Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) techniques are gaining popularity in sustainable energy management. The techniques provide solutions to the problems involving conflicting and multiple objectives. Several methods based on weighted averages, priority setting, outranking, fuzzy principles and their combinations are employed for energy planning decisions. A review of more than 90 published papers is presented here to analyze the applicability of various methods discussed. A classification on application areas and the year of application is presented to highlight the trends. It is observed that Analytical Hierarchy Process is the most popular technique followed by outranking techniques PROMETHEE and ELECTRE. Validation of results with multiple methods, development of interactive decision support systems and application of fuzzy methods to tackle uncertainties in the data is observed in the published literature. (author)

Understanding dynamics of strategic decision-making in venture creation: a process study of effectuation and causation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Reymen, I.M.M.J.; Andries, P.; Berends, J.J.; Mauer, R.; Stephan, U.; van Burg, J.C.

2015-01-01

This study draws upon effectuation and causation as examples of planning-based and flexible decision-making logics and investigates dynamics in the use of both logics. The study applies a longitudinal process research approach to investigate strategic decision making in new venture creation over

The decision-making process in public healthcare entities – identification of the decision-making process type

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Szymaniec-Mlicka Karolina

2017-05-01

Full Text Available The decisions made in the organization determine its success, therefore, conducting studies in the scope of decision-making seems important both for theory and practice. The aim of the studies was to identify the type of decision-making process in public medical entities with the use of typology developed by P. Nutt. For this purpose we used qualitative methods. Interviews with 8 directors of hospitals were conducted and the reconstruction was made on the basis of the decision-making process, which enabled the assignment of the model of decision-making process to the organization. The research indicated that four organizations use the historical decision-making model, three organizations represent the model of generating solutions, and one organization uses the model of available solutions.

Strategic Aspects of Nuclear and Radiological Emergency Management. Planning for Effective Decision Making; Consequence Management and Transition to Recovery

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2010-01-01

The collective experience of the NEA Working Party on Nuclear Emergency Matters (WPNEM), and in particular, the experience from the International Nuclear Emergency Exercise (INEX) series, has shown that it is important to plan and to implement emergency response actions based on a guiding strategic vision. Within this context, Strategic Aspects of Nuclear and Radiological Emergency Management presents a framework of strategic planning elements to be considered by national emergency management authorities when establishing or enhancing processes for decision making, and when developing or implementing protection strategies. The focus is on nuclear or radiological emergency situations leading to complex preparedness and response conditions, involving multiple jurisdictions and significant international interfaces. The report is aimed at national emergency management authorities, international organisations and those who are seeking to improve the effectiveness of emergency management. Its goal is to provide insights into decision-making processes within existing emergency planning arrangements. It also highlights common areas of good practice in decision making. Specific areas for improvement, identified during the INEX-3 consequence management exercise, are included, particularly in support of decision making for countermeasures for consequence management and the transition to recovery. (authors)

Dissociating sensory from decision processes in human perceptual decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Mostert, Pim; Kok, Peter; de Lange, Floris P

2015-12-15

A key question within systems neuroscience is how the brain translates physical stimulation into a behavioral response: perceptual decision making. To answer this question, it is important to dissociate the neural activity underlying the encoding of sensory information from the activity underlying the subsequent temporal integration into a decision variable. Here, we adopted a decoding approach to empirically assess this dissociation in human magnetoencephalography recordings. We used a functional localizer to identify the neural signature that reflects sensory-specific processes, and subsequently traced this signature while subjects were engaged in a perceptual decision making task. Our results revealed a temporal dissociation in which sensory processing was limited to an early time window and consistent with occipital areas, whereas decision-related processing became increasingly pronounced over time, and involved parietal and frontal areas. We found that the sensory processing accurately reflected the physical stimulus, irrespective of the eventual decision. Moreover, the sensory representation was stable and maintained over time when it was required for a subsequent decision, but unstable and variable over time when it was task-irrelevant. In contrast, decision-related activity displayed long-lasting sustained components. Together, our approach dissects neuro-anatomically and functionally distinct contributions to perceptual decisions.

Dissociating sensory from decision processes in human perceptual decision making

Science.gov (United States)

Mostert, Pim; Kok, Peter; de Lange, Floris P.

2015-01-01

A key question within systems neuroscience is how the brain translates physical stimulation into a behavioral response: perceptual decision making. To answer this question, it is important to dissociate the neural activity underlying the encoding of sensory information from the activity underlying the subsequent temporal integration into a decision variable. Here, we adopted a decoding approach to empirically assess this dissociation in human magnetoencephalography recordings. We used a functional localizer to identify the neural signature that reflects sensory-specific processes, and subsequently traced this signature while subjects were engaged in a perceptual decision making task. Our results revealed a temporal dissociation in which sensory processing was limited to an early time window and consistent with occipital areas, whereas decision-related processing became increasingly pronounced over time, and involved parietal and frontal areas. We found that the sensory processing accurately reflected the physical stimulus, irrespective of the eventual decision. Moreover, the sensory representation was stable and maintained over time when it was required for a subsequent decision, but unstable and variable over time when it was task-irrelevant. In contrast, decision-related activity displayed long-lasting sustained components. Together, our approach dissects neuro-anatomically and functionally distinct contributions to perceptual decisions. PMID:26666393

Personalised Care Plan Management Utilizing Guideline-Driven Clinical Decision Support Systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Laleci Erturkmen, Gokce Banu; Yuksel, Mustafa; Sarigul, Bunyamin; Lilja, Mikael; Chen, Rong; Arvanitis, Theodoros N

2018-01-01

Older age is associated with an increased accumulation of multiple chronic conditions. The clinical management of patients suffering from multiple chronic conditions is very complex, disconnected and time-consuming with the traditional care settings. Integrated care is a means to address the growing demand for improved patient experience and health outcomes of multimorbid and long-term care patients. Care planning is a prevalent approach of integrated care, where the aim is to deliver more personalized and targeted care creating shared care plans by clearly articulating the role of each provider and patient in the care process. In this paper, we present a method and corresponding implementation of a semi-automatic care plan management tool, integrated with clinical decision support services which can seamlessly access and assess the electronic health records (EHRs) of the patient in comparison with evidence based clinical guidelines to suggest personalized recommendations for goals and interventions to be added to the individualized care plans.

77 FR 74027 - Winter Use Plan, Final Environmental Impact Statement Amended Record of Decision, Yellowstone...

Science.gov (United States)

2012-12-12

...] Winter Use Plan, Final Environmental Impact Statement Amended Record of Decision, Yellowstone National... Availability of Amended Record of Decision for the Final Environmental Impact Statement for a Winter Use Plan... Record of Decision for the Winter Use Plan for Yellowstone National Park, located in Idaho, Montana, and...

Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action: developing a Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA ) process for prioritization of NAMAs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sharma, Sudhir; Desgain, Denis DR; Sandbukt, Sunniva

be relevant as next year countries will have to translate their mitigation contribution outlined in their INDCs submitted to UNFCCC into implementation plans. Multiple-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a tool commonly used for decision making process, including to rank options or to short-list a limited...

The Role of Decision Support in the Implementation of “Sustainable Transport” Plans

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gudmundsson, Henrik; Ericsson, Eva; Tight, Miles

2012-01-01

but also the difficulty of unpicking its exact role in each case. Stockholm presented the most successful case, with a mix of academic and experience-based knowledge inputs facilitating understanding and acceptance. The cycle plan example revealed very limited influence of cycling design guidance. The UK......Improved decision support is deemed essential for the planning and implementation of sustainable transport solutions, but limited evidence exists that decision-relevant information is effectively used for these purposes. This paper applies a framework inspired by research in “knowledge utilization......” to examine to what extent various kinds of decision support are used and have become influential in three different planning situations—a local cycle plan in Copenhagen, the Stockholm congestion charging trial and the UK national transport strategy. The results reveal the extensive use of decision support...

A decision support system for strategic planning on pig farms

OpenAIRE

Backus, Ge B.C.; Timmer, G. Th.; Dijkhuizen, A.A.; Eidman, V.R.; Vos, F.

1995-01-01

This paper reported on a decision support system (DSS) for strategic planning on pig farms. The DSS was based . on a stochastic simulation model of investment decisions (ISM). ISM described a farm with one loan and one building using 23 variables. The simulation model calculated the results of a strategic plan for an individual pig farm over a time horizon of a maximum of 20 years for a given scenario. For six distinct replacement strategies, regression metamodels were specified to describe t...

An exploration of decision aid effectiveness: the impact of promoting affective vs. deliberative processing on a health-related decision.

Science.gov (United States)

Davis, Esther L; McCaffery, Kirsten; Mullan, Barbara; Juraskova, Ilona

2015-12-01

Decision aids (DAs) are non-directive communication tools that help patients make value-consistent health-care decisions. However, most DAs have been developed without an explicit theoretical framework, resulting in a lack of understanding of how DAs achieve outcomes. To investigate the effect of promoting affective vs. deliberative processing on DA effectiveness based on dual-process theory. One hundred and forty-eight female university students participated in a randomized controlled experiment with three conditions: emotion-focused, information-focused and control. Preference-value consistency, knowledge, decisional conflict and satisfaction were compared across the conditions using planned contrast analyses. The intervention comprised two different DAs and instructional manipulations. The emotion-focused condition received a modified DA with affective content and instructions to induce an affective reaction. The information-focused and control conditions received the same DA without the affective content. The information-focused condition received additional instructions to induce deliberative processing. Controlling for the experiment-wise error rate at P processing may hinder value-consistent decision making, while deliberative processing may enhance decisional satisfaction. This investigation of the effect of affective and deliberative processes in DA-supported decision making has implications for the design and use of DAs. DA effectiveness may be enhanced by incorporating a simple instruction to focus on the details of the information. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Model based decision support for planning of road maintenance

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Harten, Aart; Worm, J.M.; Worm, J.M.

1996-01-01

In this article we describe a Decision Support Model, based on Operational Research methods, for the multi-period planning of maintenance of bituminous pavements. This model is a tool for the road manager to assist in generating an optimal maintenance plan for a road. Optimal means: minimising the

Strategic Planning and Decision Analysis: Presentation of the COSIMA Software System

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

This paper presents a composite decision support system, COSIMA, programmed in MS Excel. COSIMA provides assistance to the decision maker as concerns complex decisions and strategic planning. The COSIMA software is designed as interconnected modules which make it possible to conduct Cost-Benefit...

Adaptive management and environmental decision making. A case study application to water use planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gregory, Robin; Failing, Lee; Higgins, Paul

2006-01-01

Adaptive management (AM) techniques are one of the principal tools proposed by environmental decision makers to provide flexible and responsive management approaches over time. However, the record of successful applications is surprisingly small. We believe that this in part reflects the lack of an intuitively plausible framework for evaluating AM initiatives. This paper outlines such a framework, based on the insights of decision analysis, for evaluating the use of AM as a technique to improve environmental management decisions. British Columbia's Water Use Plan (WUP) process, which has developed operating plans for more than 20 major hydroelectric facilities, is introduced as a case-study example. The discussion emphasizes that decisions to adopt adaptive management strategies involve judgments concerning tradeoffs across a variety of economic, environmental, and social objectives. As a result, adaptive management initiatives need to be carefully evaluated based on their merits relative to other alternatives. Within an AM framework, alternative experimental designs should be evaluated because the design of a preferred experiment involves choices among different levels of investment, the quality of available and desired future information, and different ecological, economic, and social risks. (author)

Cost account in agriculture with particular accordance to requirements of decision making process and controls

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tomasz Kondraszuk

2009-01-01

Full Text Available The article presents cost account applicability in the agricultural companies regarding the general theory of economic and organisation of enterprises. The main focus was laid down to analyse the unit total cost account with variable costs and their applicability in three spheres: stock valuation and profit, requirements of planning and decision making processes and controlling. It was concluded that cost calculation at the level of agricultural enterprise should be an inherent element of integrated information system at the level of registry, planning, decision making and control.

An analytical hierarchy process and fuzzy inference system tsukamoto for production planning: a review and conceptual research

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Abdul Talib Bon

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Production planning is an area that is very important on the corporate strategy-level decision-making, especially in the manufacturing companies. The problems that often arise in the production planning are the factors that affect the decline of production and uncertainty that often complicate the decision-making in the production process. These factors are derived from the company’s internal and external factors. The purpose of this study is to introduce the Analytical Hierarchy Process as an effective method that can help to determine the priority of the production factors, so as to facilitate and accelerate decision-making. Other than the AHP methods, this paper will introduce the Tsukamoto Fuzzy Inference System as a method that can help to determine how much product to be manufactured by the company using the variables in the form of fuzzy numbers. These methods hopefully can assist in a better decision making process in the production process and manufacturing generally.

Implementing a Decision-Aware System for Loan Contracting Decision Process

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Razvan PETRUSEL

2011-01-01

Full Text Available The paper introduces our work related to the design and implementation of a decision-aware system focused on the loan contracting decision process. A decision-aware system is a software that enables the user to make a decision in a simulated environment and logs all the actions of the decision maker while interacting with the software. By using a mining algorithm on the logs, it creates a model of the decision process and presents it to the user. The main design issue introduced in the paper is the possibility to log the mental actions of the user. The main implementation issues are: user activity logging programming and technologies used. The first section of the paper introduces the state-of-the-art research in process mining and the framework of our research; the second section argues the design of the system; the third section introduces the actual implementation and the fourth section shows a running example.

Factors affecting long-term-care residents' decision-making processes as they formulate advance directives.

Science.gov (United States)

Lambert, Heather C; McColl, Mary Ann; Gilbert, Julie; Wong, Jiahui; Murray, Gale; Shortt, Samuel E D

2005-10-01

The purpose of this study was to describe factors contributing to the decision-making processes of elderly persons as they formulate advance directives in long-term care. This study was qualitative, based on grounded theory. Recruitment was purposive and continued until saturation was reached. Nine residents of a long-term-care facility were interviewed by use of a semistructured format. Open and axial coding of interview transcripts were carried out and the factors contributing to the decision process were defined. Elders based their decisions primarily on information gathered from personal experiences with death and illness. They obtained very little information from professionals or the media. Major factors considered by elders as they weighed information included spiritual, emotional, and social considerations. The factors considered during the decision-making process were oriented more toward the individual's experiences and less on contributions from objective sources than anticipated. Decision making for advance directives is a highly personalized process. The approach of health professionals when assisting with end-of-life decision making should be planned with these contributing factors in mind, so that the services offered to the individuals in this population best meet their needs.

Putting ecology in environmental remediation: The strategic planning process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kapustka, L.A.; Williams, B.A.

1991-01-01

Traditional ecological studies have been conducted on many sites impacted by hazardous wastes. Yet in many cases, the information obtained has had limited value in the selection of remediation options. This paper discusses the importance of developing an ecological risk-based strategic plan to fulfill the scientific and social needs demanded in the remediation and restoration of hazardous waste sites. Ecological issues need to be considered seriously at the earliest phases of the scoping process. The decisions regarding selection of assessment endpoints and data quality objectives must be incorporated from the start to insure that cost-efficient and useful measurements are used. It is too late to develop effective ecological studies after the engineering decisions have been made. Strategic planning that integrates ecological concerns will minimize the frustration and the cost associated with clean up of hazardous waste sites and maximize the likelihood of successful site restoration

Applying Multi-Criteria Decision Aiding Techniques in the Process of Project Management within the Wedding Planning Business

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dorota Górecka

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Numerous problems that emerge in the process of project management can be presented as multi-criteria issues and solved with the help of appropriate methods. The contracting authority, selecting one tender out of many available tenders, assesses them, taking into account various criteria, e.g. price, expected execution time and the contractor's experience. The owner of a company intending to purchase the fixed assets requisite for the realization of the project behaves similarly, i.e. the most advantageous model of the device is chosen, taking into account not only its price but also production capacity, energy intensity, noise emission, service availability, etc. From among many concepts, the investor has to choose a solution which frequently constitutes a compromise between price, functional properties, durability and aesthetics of performance, as well as safety of the utilization and impact on the environment. The choice of an investment location depends not only on the market, financial and supply factors, but also on so called soft factors such as the perceived quality of institutions and the attitude of local communities. All such situations can be described in the same way: taking into account preferences of the decision maker, the best possible choice must be made out of a finite set of alternatives evaluated according to a finite set of criteria. There are many different methods that can be used to aid a decision maker in this choice, including, but not limited to, techniques based on the outranking relation, verbal decision analysis and the MACBETH method. In this article, they will be compared and their applicability to different types of decision making problems will be considered. Furthermore, the PROMETHEE II method with a veto threshold will be presented within the text. Because the application of project management in the wedding planning business has gained wide popularity, as an illustrative example an empirical study of

Setting healthcare priorities: a description and evaluation of the budgeting and planning process in county hospitals in Kenya.

Science.gov (United States)

Barasa, Edwine W; Cleary, Susan; Molyneux, Sassy; English, Mike

2017-04-01

This paper describes and evaluates the budgeting and planning processes in public hospitals in Kenya. We used a qualitative case study approach to examine these processes in two hospitals in Kenya. We collected data by in-depth interviews of national level policy makers, hospital managers, and frontline practitioners in the case study hospitals (n = 72), a review of documents, and non-participant observations within the hospitals over a 7 month period. We applied an evaluative framework that considers both consequentialist and proceduralist conditions as important to the quality of priority-setting processes. The budgeting and planning process in the case study hospitals was characterized by lack of alignment, inadequate role clarity and the use of informal priority-setting criteria. With regard to consequentialist conditions, the hospitals incorporated economic criteria by considering the affordability of alternatives, but rarely considered the equity of allocative decisions. In the first hospital, stakeholders were aware of - and somewhat satisfied with - the budgeting and planning process, while in the second hospital they were not. Decision making in both hospitals did not result in reallocation of resources. With regard to proceduralist conditions, the budgeting and planning process in the first hospital was more inclusive and transparent, with the stakeholders more empowered compared to the second hospital. In both hospitals, decisions were not based on evidence, implementation of decisions was poor and the community was not included. There were no mechanisms for appeals or to ensure that the proceduralist conditions were met in both hospitals. Public hospitals in Kenya could improve their budgeting and planning processes by harmonizing these processes, improving role clarity, using explicit priority-setting criteria, and by incorporating both consequentialist (efficiency, equity, stakeholder satisfaction and understanding, shifted priorities

Behavioural Decision Making and Suggestional Processes

OpenAIRE

Molz, Günter

2001-01-01

Common features between the domains of behavioural decision making and suggestional processes are discussed. These features are allocated in two aspects. First, behavioural decision making and suggestional processes are traditionally considered to provoke inadequate human behaviour. In this article arguments are put forward against this interpretation: Actions induced by non-rational decisions and / or by suggestional processes often have adaptive functions. Second, two common themat...

Improving rural electricity system planning: An agent-based model for stakeholder engagement and decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alfaro, Jose F.; Miller, Shelie; Johnson, Jeremiah X.; Riolo, Rick R.

2017-01-01

Energy planners in regions with low rates of electrification face complex and high-risk challenges in selecting appropriate generating technologies and grid centralization. To better inform such processes, we present an Agent-Based Model (ABM) that facilitates engagement with stakeholders. This approach evaluates long-term plans using the cost of delivered electricity, resource mix, jobs and economic stimulus created within communities, and decentralized generation mix of the system, with results provided in a spatially-resolved format. This approach complements existing electricity planning methods (e.g., Integrated Resource Planning) by offering novel evaluation criteria based on typical stakeholder preferences. We demonstrate the utility of this approach with a case study based on a “blank-slate” scenario, which begins without generation or transmission infrastructure, for the long-term rural renewable energy plans of Liberia, West Africa. We consider five electrification strategies: prioritizing larger populations, deploying large resources, creating jobs, providing economic stimulus, and step-wise cost minimization. Through the case study we demonstrate how this approach can be used to engage stakeholders, supplement more established energy planning tools, and illustrate the effects of stakeholder decisions and preferences on the performance of the system. - Highlights: • An Agent Based Model, BABSTER, for electrification planning is presented. • BABSTER provides a highly engaging spatially resolved interface. • Allows flexible investigation of decision strategies with real-world incentives. • We show that decision strategies directly impact centralization and resource choice. • It is illustrated through the case study of Liberia, West Africa.

An advance care plan decision support video before major surgery: a patient- and family-centred approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Isenberg, Sarina R; Crossnohere, Norah L; Patel, Manali I; Conca-Cheng, Alison; Bridges, John F P; Swoboda, Sandy M; Smith, Thomas J; Pawlik, Timothy M; Weiss, Matthew; Volandes, Angelo E; Schuster, Anne; Miller, Judith A; Pastorini, Carolyn; Roter, Debra L; Aslakson, Rebecca A

2018-06-01

Video-based advanc care planning (ACP) tools have been studied in varied medical contexts; however, none have been developed for patients undergoing major surgery. Using a patient- and family-centredness approach, our objective was to implement human-centred design (HCD) to develop an ACP decision support video for patients and their family members when preparing for major surgery. The study investigators partnered with surgical patients and their family members, surgeons and other health professionals to design an ACP decision support video using key HCD principles. Adapting Maguire's HCD stages from computer science to the surgical context, while also incorporating Elwyn et al 's specifications for patient-oriented decision support tool development, we used a six-stage HCD process to develop the video: (1) plan HCD process; (2) specify where video will be used; (3) specify user and organisational requirements; (4) produce and test prototypes; (5) carry out user-based assessment; (6) field test with end users. Over 450 stakeholders were engaged in the development process contributing to setting objectives, applying for funding, providing feedback on the storyboard and iterations of the decision tool video. Throughout the HCD process, stakeholders' opinions were compiled and conflicting approaches negotiated resulting in a tool that addressed stakeholders' concerns. Our patient- and family-centred approach using HCD facilitated discussion and the ability to elicit and balance sometimes competing viewpoints. The early engagement of users and stakeholders throughout the development process may help to ensure tools address the stated needs of these individuals. NCT02489799. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Power Distribution System Planning Evaluation by a Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Group Decision Support System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tiefeng Zhang

2010-10-01

Full Text Available The evaluation of solutions is an important phase in power distribution system planning (PDSP which allows issues such as quality of supply, cost, social service and environmental implications to be considered and usually involves the judgments of a group of experts. The planning problem is thus suitable for the multi-criteria group decision-making (MCGDM method. The evaluation process and evaluation criteria often involve uncertainties incorporated in quantitative analysis with crisp values and qualitative judgments with linguistic terms; therefore, fuzzy sets techniques are applied in this study. This paper proposes a fuzzy multi-criteria group decision-making (FMCGDM method for PDSP evaluation and applies a fuzzy multi-criteria group decision support system (FMCGDSS to support the evaluation task. We introduce a PDSP evaluation model, which has evaluation criteria within three levels, based on the characteristics of a power distribution system. A case-based example is performed on a test distribution network and demonstrates how all the problems in a PDSP evaluation are addressed using FMCGDSS. The results are acceptable to expert evaluators.

Teaching advance care planning to medical students with a computer-based decision aid.

Science.gov (United States)

Green, Michael J; Levi, Benjamin H

2011-03-01

Discussing end-of-life decisions with cancer patients is a crucial skill for physicians. This article reports findings from a pilot study evaluating the effectiveness of a computer-based decision aid for teaching medical students about advance care planning. Second-year medical students at a single medical school were randomized to use a standard advance directive or a computer-based decision aid to help patients with advance care planning. Students' knowledge, skills, and satisfaction were measured by self-report; their performance was rated by patients. 121/133 (91%) of students participated. The Decision-Aid Group (n = 60) outperformed the Standard Group (n = 61) in terms of students' knowledge (p satisfaction with their learning experience (p student performance. Use of a computer-based decision aid may be an effective way to teach medical students how to discuss advance care planning with cancer patients.

A case study of optimization in the decision process: Siting groundwater monitoring wells

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cardwell, H.; Huff, D.; Douthitt, J.; Sale, M.

1993-12-01

Optimization is one of the tools available to assist decision makers in balancing multiple objectives and concerns. In a case study of the siting decision for groundwater monitoring wells, we look at the influence of the optimization models on the decisions made by the responsible groundwater specialist. This paper presents a multi-objective integer programming model for determining the location of monitoring wells associated with a groundwater pump-and-treat remediation. After presenting the initial optimization results, we analyze the actual decision and revise the model to incorporate elements of the problem that were later identified as important in the decision-making process. The results of a revised model are compared to the actual siting plans, the recommendations from the initial optimization runs, and the initial monitoring network proposed by the decision maker

Facilitators and constraints at each stage of the migration decision process.

Science.gov (United States)

Kley, Stefanie

2017-10-01

Behavioural models of migration emphasize the importance of migration decision-making for the explanation of subsequent behaviour. But empirical migration research regularly finds considerable gaps between those who intend to migrate and those who actually realize their intention. This paper applies the Theory of Planned Behaviour, enriched by the Rubicon model, to test specific hypotheses about distinct effects of facilitators and constraints on specific stages of migration decision-making and behaviour. The data come from a tailor-made panel survey based on random samples of people drawn from two German cities in 2006-07. The results show that in conventional models the effects of facilitators and constraints on migration decision-making are likely to be underestimated. Splitting the process of migration decision-making into a pre-decisional and a pre-actional phase helps to avoid bias in the estimated effects of facilitators and constraints on both migration decision-making and migration behaviour.

A Partially Observed Markov Decision Process for Dynamic Pricing

OpenAIRE

Yossi Aviv; Amit Pazgal

2005-01-01

In this paper, we develop a stylized partially observed Markov decision process (POMDP) framework to study a dynamic pricing problem faced by sellers of fashion-like goods. We consider a retailer that plans to sell a given stock of items during a finite sales season. The objective of the retailer is to dynamically price the product in a way that maximizes expected revenues. Our model brings together various types of uncertainties about the demand, some of which are resolvable through sales ob...

The Influence Of Planning Decisions Regarding Land Evaluation Based On A Selected Local Real Estate Market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Foryś Iwona

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The article analyzes the influence of planning decisions on changes taking place on the local real estate market. Three stages of the planning process are studied in particular, i.e.: the passing of the study of conditions and directions of spatial development, the Commune Council Resolution on initiating the formulation of a local spatial development plan, and finally the Resolution on accepting the local plan, as well as the effects of these activities on the land value in a given real estate market in Stargard Szczeciński, in the West-Pomeranian (Zachodniopomorskie Province of Poland. The object of the research is to identify the indicated relationships on a given real estate market, on which respective spatial planning stages can be distinguished, as well as the strength and course of the analyzed relationships. The study will verify the research hypothesis regarding the strength and directions of the effects of planning decisions as the direct and indirect reasons behind price changes on the real estate market. The analysis uses data from the Price Register and the District Starosty Values, along with statistical and public information data and the authors' own studies.

Markov decision processes: a tool for sequential decision making under uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Alagoz, Oguzhan; Hsu, Heather; Schaefer, Andrew J; Roberts, Mark S

2010-01-01

We provide a tutorial on the construction and evaluation of Markov decision processes (MDPs), which are powerful analytical tools used for sequential decision making under uncertainty that have been widely used in many industrial and manufacturing applications but are underutilized in medical decision making (MDM). We demonstrate the use of an MDP to solve a sequential clinical treatment problem under uncertainty. Markov decision processes generalize standard Markov models in that a decision process is embedded in the model and multiple decisions are made over time. Furthermore, they have significant advantages over standard decision analysis. We compare MDPs to standard Markov-based simulation models by solving the problem of the optimal timing of living-donor liver transplantation using both methods. Both models result in the same optimal transplantation policy and the same total life expectancies for the same patient and living donor. The computation time for solving the MDP model is significantly smaller than that for solving the Markov model. We briefly describe the growing literature of MDPs applied to medical decisions.

Cognitive Biases and Structural Failures in United States Foreign Policy: Explaining Decision-Making Dissonance in Phase IV Policy and Plans for Iraq

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Hafner, Ferinand

2007-01-01

.... This thesis applies four decision-making perspectives the rational actor, organizational process, bureaucratic politics, and individual level approaches to the Phase IV planning process to analyze...

The Impact of Forecasting on Strategic Planning and Decision Making

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The Impact of Forecasting on Strategic Planning and Decision Making: An Exploratory ... lead to the failure to achieve projected performance. ... the use of multiple regression analysis model to forecast the stock market activities of each sector ... making, and that these decisions must be congruent with the company strategy.

Simulation Models of Human Decision-Making Processes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nina RIZUN

2014-10-01

Full Text Available The main purpose of the paper is presentation of the new concept of human decision-making process modeling via using the analogy with Automatic Control Theory. From the author's point of view this concept allows to develop and improve the theory of decision-making in terms of the study and classification of specificity of the human intellectual processes in different conditions. It was proved that the main distinguishing feature between the Heuristic / Intuitive and Rational Decision-Making Models is the presence of so-called phenomenon of "enrichment" of the input information with human propensity, hobbies, tendencies, expectations, axioms and judgments, presumptions or bias and their justification. In order to obtain additional knowledge about the basic intellectual processes as well as the possibility of modeling the decision results in various parameters characterizing the decision-maker, the complex of the simulation models was developed. These models are based on the assumptions that:  basic intellectual processes of the Rational Decision-Making Model can be adequately simulated and identified by the transient processes of the proportional-integral-derivative controller; basic intellectual processes of the Bounded Rationality and Intuitive Models can be adequately simulated and identified by the transient processes of the nonlinear elements.The taxonomy of the most typical automatic control theory elements and their compliance with certain decision-making models with a point of view of decision-making process specificity and decision-maker behavior during a certain time of professional activity was obtained.

Decision framework for corridor planning within the roadside right-of-way.

Science.gov (United States)

2013-08-01

A decision framework was developed for context-sensitive planning within the roadside ROW in : Michigan. This framework provides a roadside suitability assessment model that may be used to : support integrated decision-making and policy level conside...

The application of Markov decision process in restaurant delivery robot

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Yong; Hu, Zhen; Wang, Ying

2017-05-01

As the restaurant delivery robot is often in a dynamic and complex environment, including the chairs inadvertently moved to the channel and customers coming and going. The traditional path planning algorithm is not very ideal. To solve this problem, this paper proposes the Markov dynamic state immediate reward (MDR) path planning algorithm according to the traditional Markov decision process. First of all, it uses MDR to plan a global path, then navigates along this path. When the sensor detects there is no obstructions in front state, increase its immediate state reward value; when the sensor detects there is an obstacle in front, plan a global path that can avoid obstacle with the current position as the new starting point and reduce its state immediate reward value. This continues until the target is reached. When the robot learns for a period of time, it can avoid those places where obstacles are often present when planning the path. By analyzing the simulation experiment, the algorithm has achieved good results in the global path planning under the dynamic environment.

Planning to Improvise? The Role of Reasoning in the Strategy Process: Evidence from Malaysia

OpenAIRE

Hughes, Paul; Hodgkinson, Ian R.; Arshad, Darwina; Hughes, Mathew; Leone, Vitor

2017-01-01

The file attached to this record is the author's final peer reviewed version. The Publisher's final version can be found by following the DOI link. Planning and improvisation are depicted as alternate decision-making orientations in the strategy process literature, executed by two parallel cognitive contexts: rational or intuitive, but can rationality and intuition be harmonised in the strategy process? Strategic managers may not have to choose to either plan or improvise, rather there is ...

A decision support system using analytical hierarchy process (AHP) for the optimal environmental reclamation of an open-pit mine

Science.gov (United States)

Bascetin, A.

2007-04-01

The selection of an optimal reclamation method is one of the most important factors in open-pit design and production planning. It also affects economic considerations in open-pit design as a function of plan location and depth. Furthermore, the selection is a complex multi-person, multi-criteria decision problem. The group decision-making process can be improved by applying a systematic and logical approach to assess the priorities based on the inputs of several specialists from different functional areas within the mine company. The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) can be very useful in involving several decision makers with different conflicting objectives to arrive at a consensus decision. In this paper, the selection of an optimal reclamation method using an AHP-based model was evaluated for coal production in an open-pit coal mine located at Seyitomer region in Turkey. The use of the proposed model indicates that it can be applied to improve the group decision making in selecting a reclamation method that satisfies optimal specifications. Also, it is found that the decision process is systematic and using the proposed model can reduce the time taken to select a optimal method.

Process Management Plans

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tomasz Miksa

2014-07-01

Full Text Available In the era of research infrastructures and big data, sophisticated data management practices are becoming essential building blocks of successful science. Most practices follow a data-centric approach, which does not take into account the processes that created, analysed and presented the data. This fact limits the possibilities for reliable verification of results. Furthermore, it does not guarantee the reuse of research, which is one of the key aspects of credible data-driven science. For that reason, we propose the introduction of the new concept of Process Management Plans, which focus on the identification, description, sharing and preservation of the entire scientific processes. They enable verification and later reuse of result data and processes of scientific experiments. In this paper we describe the structure and explain the novelty of Process Management Plans by showing in what way they complement existing Data Management Plans. We also highlight key differences, major advantages, as well as references to tools and solutions that can facilitate the introduction of Process Management Plans.

Increased Reliance on Value-based Decision Processes Following Motor Cortex Disruption.

Science.gov (United States)

Zénon, Alexandre; Klein, Pierre-Alexandre; Alamia, Andrea; Boursoit, François; Wilhelm, Emmanuelle; Duque, Julie

2015-01-01

During motor decision making, the neural activity in primary motor cortex (M1) encodes dynamically the competition occurring between potential action plans. A common view is that M1 represents the unfolding of the outcome of a decision process taking place upstream. Yet, M1 could also be directly involved in the decision process. Here we tested this hypothesis by assessing the effect of M1 disruption on a motor decision-making task. We applied continuous theta burst stimulation (cTBS) to inhibit either left or right M1 in different groups of subjects and included a third control group with no stimulation. Following cTBS, participants performed a task that required them to choose between two finger key-presses with the right hand according to both perceptual and value-based information. Effects were assessed by means of generalized linear mixed models and computational simulations. In all three groups, subjects relied both on perceptual (P < 0.0001) and value-based information (P = 0.003) to reach a decision. Yet, left M1 disruption led to an increased reliance on value-based information (P = 0.03). This result was confirmed by a computational model showing an increased weight of the valued-based process on the right hand finger choices following left M1 cTBS (P < 0.01). These results indicate that M1 is involved in motor decision making, possibly by weighting the final integration of multiple sources of evidence driving motor behaviors. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Global Production Planning Process considering the Supply Risk of Overseas Manufacturing Sites

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hosang Jung

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Although global manufacturers can produce most of their final products in local plants, they need to source components or parts from desirable overseas manufacturing partners at low cost in order to fulfill customer orders. In this global manufacturing environment, capacity information for planning is usually imprecise owing to the various risks of overseas plants (e.g., foreign governments’ policies and labor stability. It is therefore not easy for decision-makers to generate a global production plan showing the production amounts at local plants and overseas manufacturing facilities operated by manufacturing partners. In this paper, we present a new global production planning process considering the supply risk of overseas manufacturing sites. First, local experts estimate the supply capacity of an overseas plant using their judgment to determine when the risk could occur and how large the risk impact would be. Next, we run a global production planning model with the estimated supply capacities. The proposed process systematically adopts the qualitative judgments of local experts in the global production planning process and thus can provide companies with a realistic global production plan. We demonstrate the applicability of the proposed process with a real world case.

Assistive system for people with Apraxia using a Markov decision process.

Science.gov (United States)

Jean-Baptiste, Emilie M D; Russell, Martin; Rothstein, Pia

2014-01-01

CogWatch is an assistive system to re-train stroke survivors suffering from Apraxia or Action Disorganization Syndrome (AADS) to complete activities of daily living (ADLs). This paper describes the approach to real-time planning based on a Markov Decision Process (MDP), and demonstrates its ability to improve task's performance via user simulation. The paper concludes with a discussion of the remaining challenges and future enhancements.

Planning ahead in public health? A qualitative study of the time horizons used in public health decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor-Robinson, David C; Milton, Beth; Lloyd-Williams, Ffion; O'Flaherty, Martin; Capewell, Simon

2008-12-18

In order to better understand factors that influence decisions for public health, we undertook a qualitative study to explore issues relating to the time horizons used in decision-making. Qualitative study using semi-structured interviews. 33 individuals involved in the decision making process around coronary heart disease were purposively sampled from the UK National Health Service (national, regional and local levels), academia and voluntary organizations. Analysis was based on the framework method using N-VIVO software. Interviews were transcribed, coded and emergent themes identified. Many participants suggested that the timescales for public health decision-making are too short. Commissioners and some practitioners working at the national level particularly felt constrained in terms of planning for the long-term. Furthermore respondents felt that longer term planning was needed to address the wider determinants of health and to achieve societal level changes. Three prominent 'systems' issues were identified as important drivers of short term thinking: the need to demonstrate impact within the 4 year political cycle; the requirement to 'balance the books' within the annual commissioning cycle and the disruption caused by frequent re-organisations within the health service. In addition respondents suggested that the tools and evidence base for longer term planning were not well established. Many public health decision and policy makers feel that the timescales for decision-making are too short. Substantial systemic barriers to longer-term planning exist. Policy makers need to look beyond short-term targets and budget cycles to secure investment for long-term improvement in public health.

Sustainable transport project evaluation and decision support: indicators and planning criteria for sustainable development

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Salling, Kim Bang; Pryn, Marie Ridley

2015-01-01

is adopted. The SUSTAIN-DSS model rests upon multi-criteria decision analysis and planning workshops in order to combine the use of qualitative and quantitative assessments. This article stresses the necessity of revising current planning paradigms such as cost-benefit analysis (CBA) but also to make clear......This article will expose the necessity for a sustainable planning and decision support framework for transport infrastructure assessment. This will be operationalized through a set of planning criteria and scenario alternatives, which is assessed in the SUSTAIN decision support system (SUSTAIN......-DSS) model. A part of the decision support framework will be tested in a case study in Denmark, concerning the problem of congestion on the current bridge crossing Roskilde Fjord in the city of Frederikssund. This article suggests including in a combination both reference class forecasting and quantitative...

44 CFR 9.6 - Decision-making process.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Decision-making process. 9.6... HOMELAND SECURITY GENERAL FLOODPLAIN MANAGEMENT AND PROTECTION OF WETLANDS § 9.6 Decision-making process... protection decision-making process to be followed by the Agency in applying the Orders to its actions. While...

Application of analytical hierarchy process to analyze stakeholders preferences for municipal solid waste management plans, Boston, USA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Contreras, Francisco; Hanaki, Keisuke; Aramaki, Toshiya [Department of Urban Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, the University of Tokyo, Bunkyo-ku, Hongo 7-3-1, Tokyo 113-8656 (Japan); Connors, Stephen [Laboratory for Energy and the Environment, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, One Amherst Street E40, Cambridge, MA 02139-4307 (United States)

2008-05-15

This paper presents analytical hierarchical process (AHP) in combination with life cycle assessment (LCA) as a decision support tool for municipal solid waste (MSW) management. A proposed set of treatment plans and an array of impacts create a complex decision environment for MSW management in the city of Boston. AHP is utilized to incorporate the relative importance of the different impact categories and treatment plans into the decision scheme regarding stakeholder group's preferences. The use of biogasification and refuse derived fuel (RDF) technologies into different management plans is presented as an alternative to the actual management of household solid waste. The results of the AHP application show that between the impact categories presented, green house gas emissions and landfill capacity constrains are ranked higher rather than the cost associated to the operation of the plan and health damage associated to the treatment plans presented among the stakeholder groups. In a broader context, the use of a hierarchical approach on AHP to structure the decision problem allows the development of four different scenarios according to the contribution of each stakeholder group to the decision scheme. In this analysis, the use of biogasification was considered as the most suitable plan to follow. (author)

Generation Expansion Planning With Large Amounts of Wind Power via Decision-Dependent Stochastic Programming

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhan, Yiduo; Zheng, Qipeng P.; Wang, Jianhui; Pinson, Pierre

2017-07-01

Power generation expansion planning needs to deal with future uncertainties carefully, given that the invested generation assets will be in operation for a long time. Many stochastic programming models have been proposed to tackle this challenge. However, most previous works assume predetermined future uncertainties (i.e., fixed random outcomes with given probabilities). In several recent studies of generation assets' planning (e.g., thermal versus renewable), new findings show that the investment decisions could affect the future uncertainties as well. To this end, this paper proposes a multistage decision-dependent stochastic optimization model for long-term large-scale generation expansion planning, where large amounts of wind power are involved. In the decision-dependent model, the future uncertainties are not only affecting but also affected by the current decisions. In particular, the probability distribution function is determined by not only input parameters but also decision variables. To deal with the nonlinear constraints in our model, a quasi-exact solution approach is then introduced to reformulate the multistage stochastic investment model to a mixed-integer linear programming model. The wind penetration, investment decisions, and the optimality of the decision-dependent model are evaluated in a series of multistage case studies. The results show that the proposed decision-dependent model provides effective optimization solutions for long-term generation expansion planning.

Cognitive processes in anesthesiology decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Stiegler, Marjorie Podraza; Tung, Avery

2014-01-01

The quality and safety of health care are under increasing scrutiny. Recent studies suggest that medical errors, practice variability, and guideline noncompliance are common, and that cognitive error contributes significantly to delayed or incorrect diagnoses. These observations have increased interest in understanding decision-making psychology.Many nonrational (i.e., not purely based in statistics) cognitive factors influence medical decisions and may lead to error. The most well-studied include heuristics, preferences for certainty, overconfidence, affective (emotional) influences, memory distortions, bias, and social forces such as fairness or blame.Although the extent to which such cognitive processes play a role in anesthesia practice is unknown, anesthesia care frequently requires rapid, complex decisions that are most susceptible to decision errors. This review will examine current theories of human decision behavior, identify effects of nonrational cognitive processes on decision making, describe characteristic anesthesia decisions in this context, and suggest strategies to improve decision making.

The usefulness of Decision Support Systems in participatory forest planning: a comparison between Finland and Italy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Meo, I. de; Ferretti, F.; Hujala, T.; Kangas, A.

2013-09-01

Aim of study: Participation of stake holders is considered an essential element in producing, at different spatial and temporal scales, forest plans accepted by local community and fulfilling the requirements of Sustainable Forest Management. Increasingly, computer-based decision support systems (DSS) and tools are being introduced to assist stake holders and decision-makers in coping with the complexities inherent in participatory forest planning. The study aimed to investigate how useful the users and researchers see DSS tools and which opportunities they perceive DSS might carry for enhancing participatory forest planning in their field of activity. Area of study: 15 Italian and Finnish researchers and practitioners were interviewed. Material and methods: Face-to-face structured interviews were used to collect opinions and experiences. Quantitative and qualitative information were analyzed to investigate differences between Italian and Finnish respondents as well as between researchers and practitioners Main results: Results showed that in Italy there has been more focus on forest-level and medium-term problems and the intelligence phase, while in Finland there has been more attention to region-level and long-term problems and equally intelligence, design, and choice phases of decision-making. Deviations probably reflect different planning contexts and culture, variability in experiences and expertise in DSS and in availability of suitable DSS. Research highlights: The study suggests to pay attention to evaluating the success criteria of participatory planning when preparing for the use of DSS and related tools in practical forest planning processes. Experience sharing is a key to reaching more successful use of DSS. (Author)

Home health nurse decision-making regarding visit intensity planning for newly admitted patients: a qualitative descriptive study.

Science.gov (United States)

Irani, Elliane; Hirschman, Karen B; Cacchione, Pamela Z; Bowles, Kathryn H

2018-04-13

Despite patients referred to home health having diverse and complex needs, it is unknown how nurses develop personalized visit plans. In this qualitative descriptive study, we interviewed 26 nurses from three agencies about their decision-making process to determine visit intensity and analyzed data using directed content analysis. Following a multifactorial assessment of the patient, nurses relied on their experience and their agency's protocols to develop the personalized visit plan. They revised the plan based on changes in the patient's clinical condition, engagement, and caregiver availability. Findings suggest strategies to improve visit planning and positively influence outcomes of home health patients.

Insights into water managers' perception and handling of uncertainties - a study of the role of uncertainty in practitioners' planning and decision-making

Science.gov (United States)

Höllermann, Britta; Evers, Mariele

2017-04-01

Planning and decision-making under uncertainty is common in water management due to climate variability, simplified models, societal developments, planning restrictions just to name a few. Dealing with uncertainty can be approached from two sites, hereby affecting the process and form of communication: Either improve the knowledge base by reducing uncertainties or apply risk-based approaches to acknowledge uncertainties throughout the management process. Current understanding is that science more strongly focusses on the former approach, while policy and practice are more actively applying a risk-based approach to handle incomplete and/or ambiguous information. The focus of this study is on how water managers perceive and handle uncertainties at the knowledge/decision interface in their daily planning and decision-making routines. How they evaluate the role of uncertainties for their decisions and how they integrate this information into the decision-making process. Expert interviews and questionnaires among practitioners and scientists provided an insight into their perspectives on uncertainty handling allowing a comparison of diverse strategies between science and practice as well as between different types of practitioners. Our results confirmed the practitioners' bottom up approach from potential measures upwards instead of impact assessment downwards common in science-based approaches. This science-practice gap may hinder effective uncertainty integration and acknowledgement in final decisions. Additionally, the implementation of an adaptive and flexible management approach acknowledging uncertainties is often stalled by rigid regulations favouring a predict-and-control attitude. However, the study showed that practitioners' level of uncertainty recognition varies with respect to his or her affiliation to type of employer and business unit, hence, affecting the degree of the science-practice-gap with respect to uncertainty recognition. The level of working

Decision support for selecting exportable nuclear technology using the analytic hierarchy process: A Korean case

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Deok Joo; Hwang, Jooho

2010-01-01

The Korean government plans to increase strategically focused R and D investment in some promising nuclear technology areas to create export opportunities of technology in a global nuclear market. The purpose of this paper is to present a decision support process for selecting promising nuclear technology with the perspective of exportability by using the AHP based on extensive data gathered from nuclear experts in Korea. In this study, the decision criteria for evaluating the export competitiveness of nuclear technologies were determined, and a hierarchical structure for the decision-making process was systematically developed. Subsequently relative weights of decision criteria were derived using AHP methodology and the export competitiveness of nuclear technology alternatives was quantified to prioritize them. We discuss the implications of our results with a viewpoint toward national nuclear technology policy.

Research Planning Process

Science.gov (United States)

Lofton, Rodney

2010-01-01

This presentation describes the process used to collect, review, integrate, and assess research requirements desired to be a part of research and payload activities conducted on the ISS. The presentation provides a description of: where the requirements originate, to whom they are submitted, how they are integrated into a requirements plan, and how that integrated plan is formulated and approved. It is hoped that from completing the review of this presentation, one will get an understanding of the planning process that formulates payload requirements into an integrated plan used for specifying research activities to take place on the ISS.

Interactive Decision-Support Tool for Risk-Based Radiation Therapy Plan Comparison for Hodgkin Lymphoma

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brodin, N. Patrik; Maraldo, Maja V.; Aznar, Marianne C.

2014-01-01

PURPOSE: To present a novel tool that allows quantitative estimation and visualization of the risk of various relevant normal tissue endpoints to aid in treatment plan comparison and clinical decision making in radiation therapy (RT) planning for Hodgkin lymphoma (HL). METHODS AND MATERIALS...... and a volumetric modulated arc therapy plan for a patient with mediastinal HL. CONCLUSION: This multiple-endpoint decision-support tool provides quantitative risk estimates to supplement the clinical judgment of the radiation oncologist when comparing different RT options....... of dose-response curves to drive the reoptimization of a volumetric modulated arc therapy treatment plan for an HL patient with head-and-neck involvement. We also use this decision-support tool to visualize and quantitatively evaluate the trade-off between a 3-dimensional conformal RT plan...

[Decision Support for the Therapy Planning for Young Refugees and Asylum-Seekers with Posttraumatic Disorders].

Science.gov (United States)

Reher, Cornelia; Metzner, Franka

2016-12-01

Decision Support for the Therapy Planning for Young Refugees and Asylum-Seekers with Posttraumatic Disorders Due to the Convention on the Rights of the Child and § 6 of the Asylum Seekers' Benefit Act, there are legal and ethical obligations for the care of minor refugees suffering from trauma-related disorders. In Germany, psychotherapeutic care of adolescent refugees is provided by specialized treatment centers and Child and Adolescent psychiatries with specialized consultation-hours for refugees. Treatment of minor refugees is impeded by various legal and organizational barriers. Many therapists have reservations and uncertainties regarding an appropriate therapy for refugees due to a lack of experience. This means that only a fraction of the young refugees with trauma-related disorders find an ambulatory therapist. In a review of international literature, empirical findings on (interpreter-aided) diagnostics and therapy of young refugees were presented. Practical experiences on therapeutic work with traumatized young refugees were summarized in a decision tree for therapy planning in the ambulatory setting. The decision tree was developed to support therapists in private practices by structuring the therapy process.

A new plan-scoring method using normal tissue complication probability for personalized treatment plan decisions in prostate cancer

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Kwang Hyeon; Lee, Suk; Shim, Jang Bo; Yang, Dae Sik; Yoon, Won Sup; Park, Young Je; Kim, Chul Yong; Cao, Yuan Jie; Chang, Kyung Hwan

2018-01-01

The aim of this study was to derive a new plan-scoring index using normal tissue complication probabilities to verify different plans in the selection of personalized treatment. Plans for 12 patients treated with tomotherapy were used to compare scoring for ranking. Dosimetric and biological indexes were analyzed for the plans for a clearly distinguishable group ( n = 7) and a similar group ( n = 12), using treatment plan verification software that we developed. The quality factor ( QF) of our support software for treatment decisions was consistent with the final treatment plan for the clearly distinguishable group (average QF = 1.202, 100% match rate, n = 7) and the similar group (average QF = 1.058, 33% match rate, n = 12). Therefore, we propose a normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) based on the plan scoring index for verification of different plans for personalized treatment-plan selection. Scoring using the new QF showed a 100% match rate (average NTCP QF = 1.0420). The NTCP-based new QF scoring method was adequate for obtaining biological verification quality and organ risk saving using the treatment-planning decision-support software we developed for prostate cancer.

Nonrational processes in ethical decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Rogerson, Mark D; Gottlieb, Michael C; Handelsman, Mitchell M; Knapp, Samuel; Younggren, Jeffrey

2011-10-01

Most current ethical decision-making models provide a logical and reasoned process for making ethical judgments, but these models are empirically unproven and rely upon assumptions of rational, conscious, and quasilegal reasoning. Such models predominate despite the fact that many nonrational factors influence ethical thought and behavior, including context, perceptions, relationships, emotions, and heuristics. For example, a large body of behavioral research has demonstrated the importance of automatic intuitive and affective processes in decision making and judgment. These processes profoundly affect human behavior and lead to systematic biases and departures from normative theories of rationality. Their influence represents an important but largely unrecognized component of ethical decision making. We selectively review this work; provide various illustrations; and make recommendations for scientists, trainers, and practitioners to aid them in integrating the understanding of nonrational processes with ethical decision making.

How generation choices are influenced by costs, risks and externalities: the generation planning process in Ontario, Canada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marriage, E.A.; Rogers, M.S.

1994-01-01

Ontario Hydro is responsible for generating, supplying and delivering electricity throughout Ontario, Canada. Installed generation capacity of 32 GW consists of 20% hydro-electric (6.4 GW), 35% fossil (11.3 GW) and 40% nuclear (14.2 GW). Ontario Hydro' s planning process has evolved significantly since its decision in the late 1970's to build the 4-unit 3500 MW Darlington Nuclear Station. The emergence of environmental issues as a primary consideration, increased awareness of financial and regulatory risks, and uncertainty about the load forecast and the impact of demand management programs on the load have all contributed to the changed planning process. This paper discusses Ontario Hydro's responses to these changes such as: increased public involvement in the decision-making process; the use of a broader range of options including demand management and non-utility generation; optimizing the use of the existing system; more complete risk analyses of generation options, and recent attempts to incorporate externalities into the decision-making process. (authors). 3 figs

Risky Group Decision-Making Method for Distribution Grid Planning

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Cunbin; Yuan, Jiahang; Qi, Zhiqiang

2015-12-01

With rapid speed on electricity using and increasing in renewable energy, more and more research pay attention on distribution grid planning. For the drawbacks of existing research, this paper proposes a new risky group decision-making method for distribution grid planning. Firstly, a mixing index system with qualitative and quantitative indices is built. On the basis of considering the fuzziness of language evaluation, choose cloud model to realize "quantitative to qualitative" transformation and construct interval numbers decision matrices according to the "3En" principle. An m-dimensional interval numbers decision vector is regarded as super cuboids in m-dimensional attributes space, using two-level orthogonal experiment to arrange points uniformly and dispersedly. The numbers of points are assured by testing numbers of two-level orthogonal arrays and these points compose of distribution points set to stand for decision-making project. In order to eliminate the influence of correlation among indices, Mahalanobis distance is used to calculate the distance from each solutions to others which means that dynamic solutions are viewed as the reference. Secondly, due to the decision-maker's attitude can affect the results, this paper defines the prospect value function based on SNR which is from Mahalanobis-Taguchi system and attains the comprehensive prospect value of each program as well as the order. At last, the validity and reliability of this method is illustrated by examples which prove the method is more valuable and superiority than the other.

D-Side: A Facility and Workforce Planning Group Multi-criteria Decision Support System for Johnson Space Center

Science.gov (United States)

Tavana, Madjid

2005-01-01

"To understand and protect our home planet, to explore the universe and search for life, and to inspire the next generation of explorers" is NASA's mission. The Systems Management Office at Johnson Space Center (JSC) is searching for methods to effectively manage the Center's resources to meet NASA's mission. D-Side is a group multi-criteria decision support system (GMDSS) developed to support facility decisions at JSC. D-Side uses a series of sequential and structured processes to plot facilities in a three-dimensional (3-D) graph on the basis of each facility alignment with NASA's mission and goals, the extent to which other facilities are dependent on the facility, and the dollar value of capital investments that have been postponed at the facility relative to the facility replacement value. A similarity factor rank orders facilities based on their Euclidean distance from Ideal and Nadir points. These similarity factors are then used to allocate capital improvement resources across facilities. We also present a parallel model that can be used to support decisions concerning allocation of human resources investments across workforce units. Finally, we present results from a pilot study where 12 experienced facility managers from NASA used D-Side and the organization's current approach to rank order and allocate funds for capital improvement across 20 facilities. Users evaluated D-Side favorably in terms of ease of use, the quality of the decision-making process, decision quality, and overall value-added. Their evaluations of D-Side were significantly more favorable than their evaluations of the current approach. Keywords: NASA, Multi-Criteria Decision Making, Decision Support System, AHP, Euclidean Distance, 3-D Modeling, Facility Planning, Workforce Planning.

Feasibility of preference-driven radiotherapy dose treatment planning to support shared decision making in anal cancer

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rønde, Heidi S; Wee, Leonard; Pløen, John

2017-01-01

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVE: Chemo-radiotherapy is an established primary curative treatment for anal cancer, but clinically equal rationale for different target doses exists. If joint preferences (physician and patient) are used to determine acceptable tradeoffs in radiotherapy treatment planning, multipl...... that preference-informed dose planning is feasible for clinical studies utilizing shared decision making....... dose plans must be simultaneously explored. We quantified the degree to which different toxicity priorities might be incorporated into treatment plan selection, to elucidate the feasible decision space for shared decision making in anal cancer radiotherapy. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Retrospective plans.......7%-points; (0.3; 30.6); p decision space available in anal cancer radiotherapy to incorporate preferences, although tradeoffs are highly patient-dependent. This study demonstrates...

Discipline, dilemmas, decisions and data distribution in the planning ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Discipline, dilemmas, decisions and data distribution in the planning and ... Emphasis is placed on the value of a heterogeneous article structure and a ... Keywords: access structure, data distribution, frame structure, fre-quency of use, ...

The features of space-planning and outfitting decisions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Voronov, N.A.; Bezrukov, A.K.

1982-01-01

The features of space-planning and outfitting solutions for a primary housing which was assembled with the No 1 auxillary housing are examined. The primary factors which have given rise to an unusual design decision on the depth of the structure of the main housing (12 meters) are noted.

How are people with dementia involved in care-planning and decision-making? An Irish social work perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Donnelly, Sarah; Begley, Emer; O'Brien, Marita

2018-01-01

In recent years, there have been national and international policy advances around capacity and decision-making and an apparent burgeoning rights-based approach to the issue, all of which have the potential to impact on the experience for people with dementia in Ireland. There is little evidence however on whether these policies and principles are being translated into practice and whether traditional paternalistic approaches to decision-making are being challenged. To gain insight into current practice, research was undertaken with social workers working with older people in Ireland; reporting on the involvement of people living with dementia in care-planning processes. Data collection included a mixed method approach; an on-line survey of social workers from across the country who reported on their open caseload during the month of June 2015 (N = 38 social workers reporting on the experiences of 788 older people, of which 39% of older people had a formal diagnosis of dementia). In addition, semi-structured telephone interviews were conducted with social workers working in the nine Community Health Organisation areas (N = 21). Findings show that people with dementia were high users of social work services, accounting for 44.5% of the client group. Social workers reported that there were no standardised approaches to how Health and Social Care Professionals involved people with dementia in care planning and decision-making. Overall, people with dementia were more likely to be excluded from decision-making processes due to (i) assumptions that they lacked capacity, (ii) family members preferences that the person was not involved, (iii) communication difficulties, (iv) time constraints, (v) little or no opportunity given or (vi) the person delegated decision-making to others. Good practices were identified through multidisciplinary team approaches and formal care planning meetings. This research highlights variability in how people with dementia participate

Serotonin and decision making processes.

Science.gov (United States)

Homberg, Judith R

2012-01-01

Serotonin (5-HT) is an important player in decision making. Serotonergic antidepressant, anxiolytic and antipsychotic drugs are extensively used in the treatment of neuropsychiatric disorders characterized by impaired decision making, and exert both beneficial and harmful effects in patients. Detailed insight into the serotonergic mechanisms underlying decision making is needed to strengthen the first and weaken the latter. Although much remains to be done to achieve this, accumulating studies begin to deliver a coherent view. Thus, high central 5-HT levels are generally associated with improved reversal learning, improved attentional set shifting, decreased delay discounting, and increased response inhibition, but a failure to use outcome representations. Based on 5-HT's evolutionary role, I hypothesize that 5-HT integrates expected, or changes in, relevant sensory and emotional internal/external information, leading to vigilance behaviour affecting various decision making processes. 5-HT receptor subtypes play distinctive roles in decision making. 5-HT(2A) agonists and 5-HT2c antagonists decrease compulsivity, whereas 5-HT(2A) antagonists and 5-HT(2C) agonists decrease impulsivity. 5-HT(6) antagonists univocally affect decision making processes. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

When Family Considerations Influence Work Decisions: Decision-Making Processes

Science.gov (United States)

Powell, Gary N.; Greenhaus, Jeffrey H.

2012-01-01

The work-family literature has provided an abundance of evidence that various family factors are linked to various work decisions, suggesting that the "family-relatedness" of work decisions is a prevalent phenomenon (Greenhaus & Powell, 2012). However, the cognitive processes by which such linkages occur have received little attention. We offer a…

Corporate Choice of Banks: Decision Factors, Decision Maker, and Decision Process – First Evidence

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ongena, S.; Tumer Alkan, G.; Vermeer, B.

2011-01-01

In this paper, we investigate how firms choose their banks. We focus on the role played by the decision factors, the decision maker and the decision process in determining firm-bank relationships. We have access to a unique survey that was run by a major bank in the Czech Republic. We find that

Lexical Complexity of Decision-Making Writing Tasks: Form-focused Guided Strategic Planning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fatemeh Mahdavirad

2016-06-01

Full Text Available The present study is an attempt to investigate the effect of form-focused guided strategic planning on lexical complexity of learners’ performance in writing tasks. The twenty intermediate level participants of the study performed an unplanned and then a planned decision-making task. In the planned task condition, the participants were provided with form-focused guided strategic planning which contained detailed instructions about how to plan, by being instructed to focus on form. The guidance included an explanation of the necessary structural and lexical patterns employed to express the learners’ views while developing a comparison-and-contrast paragraph in each task. The results of the statistical analysis indicated that the participants produced a written product with a greater lexical complexity in their performance of the task in the form-focused strategic planning condition. The findings emphasize the importance of guided strategic planning as a task condition in syllabus design for task-based language teaching and the necessity of incorporating this task feature for accomplishing lexical complexity in decision-making writing tasks.

Mothers' process of decision making for gastrostomy placement.

Science.gov (United States)

Brotherton, Ailsa; Abbott, Janice

2012-05-01

In this article we present the findings of an exploration of mothers' discourses on decision making for gastrostomy placement for their child. Exploring in-depth interviews of a purposive sample, we analyzed the mothers' discourses of the decision-making process to understand how their experiences of the process influenced their subsequent constructions of decision making. Mothers negotiated decision making by reflecting on their personal experiences of feeding their child, either orally or via a tube, and interwove their background experiences with the communications from members of the health care team until a decision was reached. Decision making was often fraught with difficulty, resulting in anxiety and guilt. Experiences of decision making ranged from perceived coercion to true choice, which encompasses a truly child-centered decision. The resulting impact of the decision-making process on the mothers was profound. We conclude with an exploration of the implications for clinical practice and describe how health care professionals can support mothers to ensure that decision-making processes for gastrostomy placement in children are significantly improved.

24 CFR 55.20 - Decision making process.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Decision making process. 55.20 Section 55.20 Housing and Urban Development Office of the Secretary, Department of Housing and Urban Development FLOODPLAIN MANAGEMENT Procedures for Making Determinations on Floodplain Management § 55.20 Decision making process. The decision making...

Planning that works: Empowerment through stakeholder focused interactive planning (SFIP)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beck, J.E.; Ison, S.A.

1994-01-01

This paper describes a powerful planning tool that can enable government, private industries, and public interest organizations to actualize their visions through sound decision making. The stakeholder focused interactive planning model is designed to integrate and ultimately gain stakeholder investment in the success of attainment of their vision. The only concessions required of the planning organization using this process is the acceptance of the premise that sustained vision success requires the support of both internal and external stakeholders and that each step in the process must be used as a validation of the previous step and essential to the completion of the next step. What is stakeholder/public involvement? It is the process in which the stakeholders (both internal and external) values, interests and expectations are included in decision-making processes. The primary goal of public involvement efforts is to include all those who have a stake in the decision, whether or not they have already been identified. Stakeholders are individuals, contractors, clients, suppliers, public organizations, state and local governments, Indian tribes, federal agencies, and other parties affected by decisions

Do you look forward to retirement? Motivational biases in pension decisions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tehila Kogut

2012-05-01

Full Text Available This research examines the relationship between positive and negative perceptions of pensions and motivation to engage in the decision process of choosing a private pension plan, as well as satisfaction from the chosen pension plan, among trained economists. A sample of 134 economists completed a self-report survey examining the decision process of different decision contexts in life, including pension decisions. Overall, participants showed low motivation to engage in the process of choosing a private pension plan, compared to their motivation to engage in other decision tasks. However, economists invested more in the decision process and showed greater satisfaction from their decision regarding their pension plan when they had a more positive perception of pensions. This perception is represented by higher subjective likelihood of receiving pension allowances for a long period, and by a profitable view of the balance between current payments and expected incomes from pension saving. Key words: Pension decisions, subjective perceptions, motivational biases.

A Simulation for Managing Complexity in Sales and Operations Planning Decisions

Science.gov (United States)

DuHadway, Scott; Dreyfus, David

2017-01-01

Within the classroom it is often difficult to convey the complexities and intricacies that go into making sales and operations planning decisions. This article describes an in-class simulation that allows students to gain hands-on experience with the complexities in making forecasting, inventory, and supplier selection decisions as part of the…

300 Area Process Trenches Postclosure Plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Badden, J.W.

1998-05-01

The 300 Area Process Trenches (300 APT) certified closure under a modified closure option and in compliance with Condition II.K.3 oft he Hartford Facility Dangerous Waste Permit (Penit) (Ecology 1994). Modified closure has been determined to be the appropriate closure option for this unit due to groundwater that remains contaminated from past operations at the 300 APT. Corrective actions required for dangerous waste constituents remaining in groundwater will occur pursuant to the 300 APT Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) Final Status Facility Ground Water Monitoring Plan, the Hanford Site Wide Dangerous Waste Permit, and in conjunction with the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) remedial actions at the 300-FF-5 Groundwater Operable Unit (OU) pursuant to the Record of Decision (ROD) (EPA 1996). This postclosure plan identifies the modified closure actions required at the unit under postclosure care. It contains a description of the unit, past closure actions, and postclosure care requirements subject to compliance under the Permit (condition II.K.3)

Strategic planning: the first step in the planning process.

Science.gov (United States)

Gelinas, Marc A

2003-01-01

Strategic planning is a systematic process through which an organization builds commitment among key stakeholders to goals and priorities which are essential to its mission and vision, and responsive to the operating environment. Strategic planning is the first step in a comprehensive planning process that also includes business planning and implementation planning. If all three steps are carried out in sequence, strategic planning can be a very effective means of educating the stakeholders about where the cancer program is and where it is going, gaining support and commitment for the direction that the cancer program will take, and assuring that everyone's expectations can be managed effectively. Unfortunately, some organizations and cancer program leaders misunderstand the process. Too often, strategic planning is used as a stand-alone activity. This article will describe what strategic planning is, how it should smoothly lead into business planning and implementation planning, and how to avoid the pitfalls that sometimes arise during the strategic planning effort.

A hierarchical Markov decision process modeling feeding and marketing decisions of growing pigs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pourmoayed, Reza; Nielsen, Lars Relund; Kristensen, Anders Ringgaard

2016-01-01

Feeding is the most important cost in the production of growing pigs and has a direct impact on the marketing decisions, growth and the final quality of the meat. In this paper, we address the sequential decision problem of when to change the feed-mix within a finisher pig pen and when to pick pigs...... for marketing. We formulate a hierarchical Markov decision process with three levels representing the decision process. The model considers decisions related to feeding and marketing and finds the optimal decision given the current state of the pen. The state of the system is based on information from on...

Male Involvement in Family Planning Decision Making in Ile-Ife ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Erah

spousal communication, and investigated the correlates of men's opinion in family planning decision making in ... questionnaire to collect information from 402 male study participants. ..... who attained post-secondary education were more.

Lexical Complexity of Decision-Making Writing Tasks: Form-focused Guided Strategic Planning

OpenAIRE

Mahdavirad, Fatemeh

2016-01-01

The present study is an attempt to investigate the effect of form-focused guided strategic planning on lexical complexity of learners’ performance in writing tasks. The twenty intermediate level participants of the study performed an unplanned and then a planned decision-making task. In the planned task condition, the participants were provided with form-focused guided strategic planning which contained detailed instructions about how to plan, by being instructed to focus on form. The guidanc...

Cancer treatment decision-making processes for older patients with complex needs: a qualitative study.

Science.gov (United States)

Bridges, Jackie; Hughes, Jane; Farrington, Naomi; Richardson, Alison

2015-12-14

Although older people can experience complex health and social care needs alongside a primary cancer diagnosis, little is understood about how cancer treatment decisions are made for this population. This study aimed to investigate how cancer treatment decisions are formulated for older people with complex health and social care needs and the factors that shape these processes. Qualitative study involving semistructured interviews and non-participant observations. Framework approach used for data analysis. Breast and colorectal cancer services in five English NHS hospital trusts. Interviews: purposive sample of 22 clinicians directly involved in a face-to-face clinical role with patients regarding cancer treatment and care, maximising variation across clinical roles, tumour types and trusts. purposive sample of five cancer multidisciplinary meetings, maximising variation across location, team size and tumour type. The initial stages of cancer treatment decision-making are team-based, medically dominated and focused on the cancer. For patients with complex health and social care needs that extend beyond cancer pathology, later and less visible stages in the decision-making process are more haphazard and may result in less effective and workable treatment plans, as individual clinicians struggle to devise and deliver these plans without breaching time-based targets. Service targets that focus resources solely on the presenting disease can disadvantage older patients with complex health and social care needs that extend beyond this primary diagnosis. Care should be taken to ensure time-based targets do not disincentivise thorough and timely assessment that can lead to the formulation of treatment plans tailored to individual needs and circumstances. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Can Plan Recommendations Improve the Coverage Decisions of Vulnerable Populations in Health Insurance Marketplaces?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrew J Barnes

Full Text Available The Affordable Care Act's marketplaces present an important opportunity for expanding coverage but consumers face enormous challenges in navigating through enrollment and re-enrollment. We tested the effectiveness of a behaviorally informed policy tool--plan recommendations--in improving marketplace decisions.Data were gathered from a community sample of 656 lower-income, minority, rural residents of Virginia.We conducted an incentive-compatible, computer-based experiment using a hypothetical marketplace like the one consumers face in the federally-facilitated marketplaces, and examined their decision quality. Participants were randomly assigned to a control condition or three types of plan recommendations: social normative, physician, and government. For participants randomized to a plan recommendation condition, the plan that maximized expected earnings, and minimized total expected annual health care costs, was recommended.Primary data were gathered using an online choice experiment and questionnaire.Plan recommendations resulted in a 21 percentage point increase in the probability of choosing the earnings maximizing plan, after controlling for participant characteristics. Two conditions, government or providers recommending the lowest cost plan, resulted in plan choices that lowered annual costs compared to marketplaces where no recommendations were made.As millions of adults grapple with choosing plans in marketplaces and whether to switch plans during open enrollment, it is time to consider marketplace redesigns and leverage insights from the behavioral sciences to facilitate consumers' decisions.

Can Plan Recommendations Improve the Coverage Decisions of Vulnerable Populations in Health Insurance Marketplaces?

Science.gov (United States)

Barnes, Andrew J; Hanoch, Yaniv; Rice, Thomas

2016-01-01

The Affordable Care Act's marketplaces present an important opportunity for expanding coverage but consumers face enormous challenges in navigating through enrollment and re-enrollment. We tested the effectiveness of a behaviorally informed policy tool--plan recommendations--in improving marketplace decisions. Data were gathered from a community sample of 656 lower-income, minority, rural residents of Virginia. We conducted an incentive-compatible, computer-based experiment using a hypothetical marketplace like the one consumers face in the federally-facilitated marketplaces, and examined their decision quality. Participants were randomly assigned to a control condition or three types of plan recommendations: social normative, physician, and government. For participants randomized to a plan recommendation condition, the plan that maximized expected earnings, and minimized total expected annual health care costs, was recommended. Primary data were gathered using an online choice experiment and questionnaire. Plan recommendations resulted in a 21 percentage point increase in the probability of choosing the earnings maximizing plan, after controlling for participant characteristics. Two conditions, government or providers recommending the lowest cost plan, resulted in plan choices that lowered annual costs compared to marketplaces where no recommendations were made. As millions of adults grapple with choosing plans in marketplaces and whether to switch plans during open enrollment, it is time to consider marketplace redesigns and leverage insights from the behavioral sciences to facilitate consumers' decisions.

Clarification process: Resolution of decision-problem conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Dieterly, D. L.

1980-01-01

A model of a general process which occurs in both decisionmaking and problem-solving tasks is presented. It is called the clarification model and is highly dependent on information flow. The model addresses the possible constraints of individual indifferences and experience in achieving success in resolving decision-problem conditions. As indicated, the application of the clarification process model is only necessary for certain classes of the basic decision-problem condition. With less complex decision problem conditions, certain phases of the model may be omitted. The model may be applied across a wide range of decision problem conditions. The model consists of two major components: (1) the five-phase prescriptive sequence (based on previous approaches to both concepts) and (2) the information manipulation function (which draws upon current ideas in the areas of information processing, computer programming, memory, and thinking). The two components are linked together to provide a structure that assists in understanding the process of resolving problems and making decisions.

Tanks Focus Area Alternative Salt Processing Research and Development Program Plan

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Harmon, Harry D.

2000-05-15

In March 2000, DOE-Headquarters (HQ) requested the Tanks Focus Area (TFA)to assume management responsibility for the Salt Processing Project technology development program at Savannah River Site. The TFA was requested to conduct several activities, including review and revision of the technology development roadmaps, development of down-selection criteria, and preparation of a comprehensive Research and Development (R&D) Program Plan for three candidate cesium removal technologies, as well as the Alpha and strontium removal processes that must also be carried out. The three cesium removal candidate technologies are Crystalline Silicotitanate (CST) Non-Elutable Ion Exchange, Caustic Side Solvent Extraction (CSSX), and Small Tank Tetraphenylborate Precipitation (STTP). This plan describes the technology development needs for each process that must be satisfied in order to reach a down-selection decision, as well as continuing technology development required to support conceptual design activities.

Tanks Focus Area Alternative Salt Processing Research and Development Program Plan

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Harmon, Harry D.

2000-11-30

In March 2000, DOE-Headquarters (HQ) requested the Tanks Focus Area (TFA) to assume management responsibility for the Salt Processing Project technology development program at Savannah River Site. The TFA was requested to conduct several activities, including review and revision of the technology development roadmaps, development of down-selection criteria, and preparation of a comprehensive Research and Development (R&D) Program Plan for three candidate cesium removal technologies, as well as the Alpha and strontium removal processes that must also be carried out. The three cesium removal candidate technologies are Crystalline Silicotitanate (CST) Non-Elutable Ion Exchange, Caustic Side Solvent Extraction (CSSX), and Small Tank Tetraphenylborate Precipitation (STTP). This plan describes the technology development needs for each process that must be satisfied in order to reach a down-selection decision, as well as continuing technology development required to support conceptual design activities.

Decision process simulation in training systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zajtsev, K.S.; Serov, A.A.; Ajnutdinov, V.A.

1984-01-01

One of the approaches to arrangement of training process an automated trainning systems (ATS) based on actjve use of knowledge of experienced operators is presented. Problems of mathematical model simulatjon of decision process by people not having special knowledge in mathematics are considered. A language of solution tables based on indistinct tables is suggested to the used as a simulation language. The problem of automation of decision process simulation in ATS is solued

Errors in Aviation Decision Making: Bad Decisions or Bad Luck?

Science.gov (United States)

Orasanu, Judith; Martin, Lynne; Davison, Jeannie; Null, Cynthia H. (Technical Monitor)

1998-01-01

Despite efforts to design systems and procedures to support 'correct' and safe operations in aviation, errors in human judgment still occur and contribute to accidents. In this paper we examine how an NDM (naturalistic decision making) approach might help us to understand the role of decision processes in negative outcomes. Our strategy was to examine a collection of identified decision errors through the lens of an aviation decision process model and to search for common patterns. The second, and more difficult, task was to determine what might account for those patterns. The corpus we analyzed consisted of tactical decision errors identified by the NTSB (National Transportation Safety Board) from a set of accidents in which crew behavior contributed to the accident. A common pattern emerged: about three quarters of the errors represented plan-continuation errors, that is, a decision to continue with the original plan despite cues that suggested changing the course of action. Features in the context that might contribute to these errors were identified: (a) ambiguous dynamic conditions and (b) organizational and socially-induced goal conflicts. We hypothesize that 'errors' are mediated by underestimation of risk and failure to analyze the potential consequences of continuing with the initial plan. Stressors may further contribute to these effects. Suggestions for improving performance in these error-inducing contexts are discussed.

Use of representative models in the decision making process of an offshore field development plan; Utilizacao de modelos representativos na tomada de decisao do desenvolvimento complementar em campo offshore

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Silva, Fabio Rodrigo C. da; Costa, Ana Paula de Araujo [PETROBRAS S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

2008-07-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the risk and value of information on the complementary development project of an offshore field, which consists of drilling a well in a region that has not been drained by existing wells. It was applied a methodology that involves quantification of uncertainty and risk analysis (Costa, 2003) to obtain the probabilistic production curves of oil and value of information from the project. The work consists of applying a methodology that proposes the use of the concept of models that represents the geological uncertainties, called Representative Geological Models (RM) to improve the decision making process of the project. It was used a numerical simulator (IMEX) and a tool for parallel processing (UNIPAR). The RM represents the universe of all models combined, making up the risk curve of the study. The selection of RM consists of plotting a main objective function (NPV) with a secondary of production (FR%, NP, etc.). The adoption of this premise, which includes aspects of the amount recovered and the speed of recovery, is useful in sizing the later production facilities as well as in detailing the development plans and evaluating the flexibility of these plans. The adoption of the methodology of measuring uncertainties as well as an automated tool made the study possible and also provided detailed information, contributing to the decision making process. (author)

Optimization of Decision-Making in Port Logistics Terminals: Using Analytic Hierarchy Process for the Case of Port of Thessaloniki

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gogas Michael

2014-12-01

Full Text Available The management models pursued in logistics terminals determine their performance to a great extent. Terminals managed by public actors usually incorporate more social criteria into their decision-making processes. In addition, private management focuses on economic viability of the initiative. Decision-making is a complex process regardless the structure of management or the decision models useddue to the fact that a wide range of diverse criteria are embedded into this process. The objective of this paper it to determine a prioritization of a set of alternative options for investment projects which were suggested by port executives taking into account criteria and evaluation that have already validated by them. In order to perform the analysis a multi-criteria decision-making model was used: the Analytic Hierachy Process. The outcomes support a low-biased and efficient strategic planning through a balanced decision-making framework.

Strategic foresight: how planning for the unpredictable can improve environmental decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Cook, Carly N; Inayatullah, Sohail; Burgman, Mark A; Sutherland, William J; Wintle, Brendan A

2014-09-01

Advanced warning of potential new opportunities and threats related to biodiversity allows decision-makers to act strategically to maximize benefits or minimize costs. Strategic foresight explores possible futures, their consequences for decisions, and the actions that promote more desirable futures. Foresight tools, such as horizon scanning and scenario planning, are increasingly used by governments and business for long-term strategic planning and capacity building. These tools are now being applied in ecology, although generally not as part of a comprehensive foresight strategy. We highlight several ways foresight could play a more significant role in environmental decisions by: monitoring existing problems, highlighting emerging threats, identifying promising new opportunities, testing the resilience of policies, and defining a research agenda. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A decision support system for pre-earthquake planning of lifeline networks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Liang, J.W. [Tianjin Univ. (China). Dept. of Civil Engineering

1996-12-01

This paper describes the frame of a decision support system for pre-earthquake planning of gas and water networks. The system is mainly based on the earthquake experiences and lessons from the 1976 Tangshan earthquake. The objective of the system is to offer countermeasures and help make decisions for seismic strengthening, remaking, and upgrading of gas and water networks.

Road maintenance optimization through a discrete-time semi-Markov decision process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Xueqing; Gao Hui

2012-01-01

Optimization models are necessary for efficient and cost-effective maintenance of a road network. In this regard, road deterioration is commonly modeled as a discrete-time Markov process such that an optimal maintenance policy can be obtained based on the Markov decision process, or as a renewal process such that an optimal maintenance policy can be obtained based on the renewal theory. However, the discrete-time Markov process cannot capture the real time at which the state transits while the renewal process considers only one state and one maintenance action. In this paper, road deterioration is modeled as a semi-Markov process in which the state transition has the Markov property and the holding time in each state is assumed to follow a discrete Weibull distribution. Based on this semi-Markov process, linear programming models are formulated for both infinite and finite planning horizons in order to derive optimal maintenance policies to minimize the life-cycle cost of a road network. A hypothetical road network is used to illustrate the application of the proposed optimization models. The results indicate that these linear programming models are practical for the maintenance of a road network having a large number of road segments and that they are convenient to incorporate various constraints on the decision process, for example, performance requirements and available budgets. Although the optimal maintenance policies obtained for the road network are randomized stationary policies, the extent of this randomness in decision making is limited. The maintenance actions are deterministic for most states and the randomness in selecting actions occurs only for a few states.

Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA): A novel practical guidance for Climate Resilient Investments and Planning

Science.gov (United States)

Jeuken, Ad; Mendoza, Guillermo; Matthews, John; Ray, Patrick; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Gilroy, Kristin; Olsen, Rolf; Kucharski, John; Stakhiv, Gene; Cushing, Janet; Brown, Casey

2016-04-01

Engineers and water managers have always incorporated uncertainty in water resources operations, design and planning. In recent years, concern has been growing concern that many of the fundamental principles to address uncertainty in planning and design are insufficient for coping with unprecedented shifts in climate, especially given the long lifetimes of water investments - spanning decades, even centuries. Can we design and operate new flood risk management, energy, water supply and sanitation, and agricultural projects that are robust to shifts over 20, 50, or more years? Since about 2009, better approaches to planning and designing under climate uncertainty have been gaining ground worldwide. The main challenge is to operationalize these approaches and bring them from science to practice, embed them within the existing decision-making processes of particular institutions, and shift from highly specialized "boutique" applications to methods that result in consistent, replicable outcomes accessible to water managers worldwide. With CRIDA a serious step is taken to achieve these goals. CRIDA is built on two innovative but complementary approaches that have developed in isolation across the Atlantic over the past seven years: diagnosing and assessing risk (decision scaling), and developing sequential decision steps to compensate for uncertainty within regulatory / performance standards (adaptation pathways). First, the decision scaling or "bottom up" framework to climate change adaptation was first conceptualized during the US/Canada Great Lakes regulation study and has recently been placed in a decision-making context for water-related investments published by the World Bank Second, the adaptation pathways approach was developed in the Netherlands to cope with the level of climate uncertainty we now face. Adaptation pathways is a tool for maintaining options and flexibility while meeting operational goals by envisioning how sequences of decisions can be navigated

Processing Information in Quantum Decision Theory

OpenAIRE

Yukalov, V. I.; Sornette, D.

2008-01-01

A survey is given summarizing the state of the art of describing information processing in Quantum Decision Theory, which has been recently advanced as a novel variant of decision making, based on the mathematical theory of separable Hilbert spaces. This mathematical structure captures the effect of superposition of composite prospects, including many incorporated intended actions. The theory characterizes entangled decision making, non-commutativity of subsequent decisions, and intention int...

Review. Assessing uncertainty and risk in forest planning and decision support systems: review of classical methods and introduction of innovative approaches

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pasalodos-Tato, M.; Makinen, A.; Garcia-Gonzalez, J.; Borges, J. G.; Lamas, T.; Eriksson, L. O.

2013-09-01

Aim: Since forest planning is characterized by long time horizon and it typically involves large areas of land and numerous stake holders, uncertainty and risk should play an important role when developing forest management plans. The aim of this study is to review different methods to deal with risk and uncertainty in forest planning, listing problems that forest managers may face during the preparation of management plans and trying to give recommendations in regard to the application of each method according to the problem case. The inclusion of risk and uncertainty in decision support systems is also analyzed. Area: It covers the temporal and spatial scale of forest planning, the spatial context, the participation process, the objectives dimensions and the good and services addressed. Material and methods: Several hundreds of articles dealing with uncertainty and risk were identified regarding different forestry-related topics and approaches. Form them, around 170 articles were further reviewed, categorized and evaluated. Main results: The study presents a thorough review and classification of methods and approaches to consider risk and uncertainty in forest planning. Moreover, new approaches are introduced, showing the opportunities that their application presents in forest planning. Research highlights: The study can aid forest managers in the decision making process when designing a forest management plan considering risk and uncertainty. (Author)

Review. Assessing uncertainty and risk in forest planning and decision support systems: review of classical methods and introduction of new approaches

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Pasalodos-Tato

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Aim: Since forest planning is characterized by long time horizon and it typically involves large areas of land and numerous stakeholders, uncertainty and risk should play an important role when developing forest management plans. The aim of this study is to review different methods to deal with risk and uncertainty in forest planning, listing problems that forest managers may face during the preparation of management plans and trying to give recommendations in regard to the application of each method according to the problem case. The inclusion of risk and uncertainty in decision support systems is also analyzed.Area: It covers the temporal and spatial scale of forest planning, the spatial context, the participation process, the objectives dimensions and the good and services addressed.Material and methods: Several hundreds of articles dealing with uncertainty and risk were identified regarding different forestry-related topics and approaches. Form them, around 170 articles were further reviewed, categorized and evaluated.Main results: The study presents a thorough review and classification of methods and approaches to consider risk and uncertainty in forest planning. Moreover, new approaches are introduced, showing the opportunities that their application present in forest planning.Research highlights: The study can aid forest managers in the decision making process when designing a forest management plan considering risk and uncertainty.Keywords: operations research; optimal alternative; stochastic risk; endogenous risk; stand level; forest level.

Decision support system emergency planning, creating evacuation strategies in the event of flooding

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Windhouwer, C.J.; Klunder, G.A.; Sanders, F.M.

2005-01-01

The Decision Support System (DSS) Emergency Planning is designed for use in the event of sea or river flooding. It makes accessible all the information related to the decision whether to evacuate an area. An important factor in this decision is the time required for the evacuation. The model used by

A Framework for Investigating Influence of Organizational Decision Makers on Data Mining Process Achievement

OpenAIRE

Hanieh Hajisafari; Shaaban Elahi

2012-01-01

Currently, few studies deal with evaluation of data mining plans in context of solvng organizational problems. A successful data miner is searching to solve a fully defined business problem. To make the data mining (DM) results actionable, the data miner must explain them to the business insider. The interaction process between the business insiders and data miners is actually a knowledge-sharing process. In this study through representing a framwork, influence of organizational decision mak...

Nuclear fuel reprocessing deactivation plan for the Idaho Chemical Processing Plant, Revision 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Patterson, M.W.

1994-10-01

The decision was announced on April 28, 1992 to cease all United States Department of Energy (DOE) reprocessing of nuclear fuels. This decision leads to the deactivation of all fuels dissolution, solvent extraction, krypton gas recovery operations, and product denitration at the Idaho Chemical Processing Plant (ICPP). The reprocessing facilities will be converted to a safe and stable shutdown condition awaiting future alternate uses or decontamination and decommissioning (D ampersand D). This ICPP Deactivation Plan includes the scope of work, schedule, costs, and associated staffing levels necessary to achieve a safe and orderly deactivation of reprocessing activities and the Waste Calcining Facility (WCF). Deactivation activities primarily involve shutdown of operating systems and buildings, fissile and hazardous material removal, and related activities. A minimum required level of continued surveillance and maintenance is planned for each facility/process system to ensure necessary environmental, health, and safety margins are maintained and to support ongoing operations for ICPP facilities that are not being deactivated. Management of the ICPP was transferred from Westinghouse Idaho Nuclear Company, Inc. (WINCO) to Lockheed Idaho Technologies Company (LITCO) on October 1, 1994 as part of the INEL consolidated contract. This revision of the deactivation plan (formerly the Nuclear Fuel Reprocessing Phaseout Plan for the ICPP) is being published during the consolidation of the INEL site-wide contract and the information presented here is current as of October 31, 1994. LITCO has adopted the existing plans for the deactivation of ICPP reprocessing facilities and the plans developed under WINCO are still being actively pursued, although the change in management may result in changes which have not yet been identified. Accordingly, the contents of this plan are subject to revision

Decision process involved in preparing the Shippingport reactor pressure vessel for transport

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murphie, W.E.

1989-01-01

The most significant part of the Shippingport Station Decommissioning Project was the one-piece removal and shipment of the reactor pressure vessel (RPV). Implicit in the RPV transport was the task of qualifying the RPV as a waste package acceptable for shipment. Soon after physical decommissioning began on September 1985, questions regarding the packaging certification and transport of the RPV from Shippingport, Pennsylvania to the US Department of Energy (DOE) Hanford Waste Burial Site necessitated reexamination of several planning assumptions. A complete reassessment of the regulatory requirements governing the RPV shipment resulted in a programmatic decision to obtain a type B(U) Certificate of Compliance and abandon the originally planned US Department of Transportation (DOT) low specific activity (LSA) shipment. The decision process resulting in this conclusion was extensive and involved many organizations and agencies. Incidental to this process, several subtle certification issues were identified that required resolution. Some of these issues involved the definition of LSA material for large packages; interpretation and compliance with DOE, DOT and US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) regulations for the transport of radioactive material; incorporation of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) regulations by the Panama Canal; and DOE policy requiring advance notification to states of radioactive waste shipments. 2 figs

Decision process involved in preparing the Shippingport reactor pressure vessel for transport

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murphie, W.E.

1990-01-01

The most significant part of the Shippingport Station Decommissioning Project was the one-piece removal and shipment of the reactor pressure vessel (RPV). Implicit in the RPV transport was the task of qualifying the RPV as a waste package acceptable for shipment. Soon after physical decommissioning began on September, 1985, questions regarding the packaging certification and transport of the RPV from Shippingport, Pennsylvania to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Hanford waste burial site necessitated reexamination of several planning assumptions. A complete reassessment of the regulatory requirements governing the RPV shipment resulting in a programmatic decision to obtain a Type B(U) Certification of Compliance and abandon the originally planned U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) low specific activity (LSA) shipment. The decision process resulting in this conclusion was extensive and involved many organizations and agencies. Incidental to this process, several subtle certification issues were identified that required resolution. Some of these issues involved the definition of LSA material for large packages; interpretation and compliance with DOE, DOT and U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) regulations for the transport of radioactive material; incorporation of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) regulations by the Panama Canal; and DOE policy requiring advance notification to states of radioactive waste shipments

Dual processing model of medical decision-making

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

Background Dual processing theory of human cognition postulates that reasoning and decision-making can be described as a function of both an intuitive, experiential, affective system (system I) and/or an analytical, deliberative (system II) processing system. To date no formal descriptive model of medical decision-making based on dual processing theory has been developed. Here we postulate such a model and apply it to a common clinical situation: whether treatment should be administered to the patient who may or may not have a disease. Methods We developed a mathematical model in which we linked a recently proposed descriptive psychological model of cognition with the threshold model of medical decision-making and show how this approach can be used to better understand decision-making at the bedside and explain the widespread variation in treatments observed in clinical practice. Results We show that physician’s beliefs about whether to treat at higher (lower) probability levels compared to the prescriptive therapeutic thresholds obtained via system II processing is moderated by system I and the ratio of benefit and harms as evaluated by both system I and II. Under some conditions, the system I decision maker’s threshold may dramatically drop below the expected utility threshold derived by system II. This can explain the overtreatment often seen in the contemporary practice. The opposite can also occur as in the situations where empirical evidence is considered unreliable, or when cognitive processes of decision-makers are biased through recent experience: the threshold will increase relative to the normative threshold value derived via system II using expected utility threshold. This inclination for the higher diagnostic certainty may, in turn, explain undertreatment that is also documented in the current medical practice. Conclusions We have developed the first dual processing model of medical decision-making that has potential to enrich the current medical

Dual processing model of medical decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Djulbegovic, Benjamin; Hozo, Iztok; Beckstead, Jason; Tsalatsanis, Athanasios; Pauker, Stephen G

2012-09-03

Dual processing theory of human cognition postulates that reasoning and decision-making can be described as a function of both an intuitive, experiential, affective system (system I) and/or an analytical, deliberative (system II) processing system. To date no formal descriptive model of medical decision-making based on dual processing theory has been developed. Here we postulate such a model and apply it to a common clinical situation: whether treatment should be administered to the patient who may or may not have a disease. We developed a mathematical model in which we linked a recently proposed descriptive psychological model of cognition with the threshold model of medical decision-making and show how this approach can be used to better understand decision-making at the bedside and explain the widespread variation in treatments observed in clinical practice. We show that physician's beliefs about whether to treat at higher (lower) probability levels compared to the prescriptive therapeutic thresholds obtained via system II processing is moderated by system I and the ratio of benefit and harms as evaluated by both system I and II. Under some conditions, the system I decision maker's threshold may dramatically drop below the expected utility threshold derived by system II. This can explain the overtreatment often seen in the contemporary practice. The opposite can also occur as in the situations where empirical evidence is considered unreliable, or when cognitive processes of decision-makers are biased through recent experience: the threshold will increase relative to the normative threshold value derived via system II using expected utility threshold. This inclination for the higher diagnostic certainty may, in turn, explain undertreatment that is also documented in the current medical practice. We have developed the first dual processing model of medical decision-making that has potential to enrich the current medical decision-making field, which is still to the

EMPLOYEE PROMOTION PLANNING IN ANALYTICAL HIERARCHY PROCESS PERSPECTIVE: STUDY ON NATIONAL PUBLIC PROCUREMENT AGENCY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ayuningtyas A.K.

2017-10-01

Full Text Available The promotion process is part of the career development conducted by Civil State Apparatus Employee (Pegawai Aparatur Sipil Negara which should be implemented by applying merit system. Employee-related strategic decision making has not applied merit system as mandated in applied laws. It occurred due to Public Service Appointment Board (Badan Pertimbangan Jabatan dan Kepangkatan not possessing assessment model and criteria which could be used to support promotion process implementation in the appropriate structural position based on employee competence and performance. This study aims to describe and analyze assessment criteria and subcriteria required to be considered in State Civil Servant Officers promotion planning by applying Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP method in National Public Procurement Agency (Lembaga Kebijakan Pengadaan Barang/Jasa Pemerintah. This study uses the explanative quantitative univariate method. Data collection technique used questionnaire instrument. Analytical tool used was AHP. Research result exhibits that ASN employee promotion planning using assessment model is described as follows: Employee Performance Assessment consist of Employee Work Performance element with three criteria and Employee Work Behavior with twenty-three criteria; and Evaluation of Employee Promotion Implementation with eleven criteria. Through the use of AHP methods employee, promotion planning could be utilized as a tool for Baperjakat to produce employee decisions that will be promoted objectively and effectively.

Facet-based analysis of vacation planning process : a binary mixed logit panel model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Grigolon, A.B.; Kemperman, A.D.A.M.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

2013-01-01

This article documents the design and results of a study on vacation planning processes with a particular focus on aggregate relationships between the probability that a certain facet of the vacation decision has been decided at a particular point in time, as a function of lead time to the actual

Facet-based analysis of vacation planning processes : a binary mixed logit panel model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Grigolon, Anna; Kemperman, Astrid; Timmermans, Harry

2012-01-01

This article documents the design and results of a study on vacation planning processes with a particular focus on aggregate relationships between the probability that a certain facet of the vacation decision has been decided at a particular point in time, as a function of lead time to the actual

Facilitated workshop method to involve stakeholders and public in decision making process in radiological emergencies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mustonen, Raimo; Sinkko, Kari; Haemaelaeinen, Raimo P.

2006-01-01

International organisations in radiation protection have for many years recommended that key players, e.g. authorities, expert organisations, industry, producers of foodstuffs and even the public, should be involved in the planning of protective actions in case of a nuclear accident. In this work, we have developed and tested a facilitated workshop method where representatives from various fields of the society aim to identify and evaluate systematically protective actions. Decision analysis techniques have been applied in workshops in order to find out the most feasible countermeasure strategies and to make the decision making-process transparent and auditable. The work builds on case studies where it was assumed that a hypothetical accident had led to a release of considerable amounts of radionuclides and therefore various types of countermeasures should be considered. This paper provides experiences gained in several European countries on how to facilitate this kind of workshops and how modern decision analysis techniques can be applied in the decision-making process

Facilitated workshop method to involve stakeholders and public in decision making process in radiological emergencies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mustonen, Raimo; Sinkko, Kari [STUK-Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority, Helsinki (Finland). Research and Environmental Surveillance; Haemaelaeinen, Raimo P. [Helsinki Univ. of Technology, Helsinki (Finland). System Analysis Laboratory

2006-09-15

International organisations in radiation protection have for many years recommended that key players, e.g. authorities, expert organisations, industry, producers of foodstuffs and even the public, should be involved in the planning of protective actions in case of a nuclear accident. In this work, we have developed and tested a facilitated workshop method where representatives from various fields of the society aim to identify and evaluate systematically protective actions. Decision analysis techniques have been applied in workshops in order to find out the most feasible countermeasure strategies and to make the decision making-process transparent and auditable. The work builds on case studies where it was assumed that a hypothetical accident had led to a release of considerable amounts of radionuclides and therefore various types of countermeasures should be considered. This paper provides experiences gained in several European countries on how to facilitate this kind of workshops and how modern decision analysis techniques can be applied in the decision-making process.

The decision-making process between rationality and emotions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Alvino, Letizia; Franco, Massimo

2017-01-01

The decision-making process has been analyzed in several disciplines (economics, social sciences, humanities, etc.) with the aim of creating models to help decision-makers in strategy formulation. The Organizational theory takes into account both the decision-making process of individuals and groups

Decision-making processes shaping the home food environments of young adult women with and without children.

Science.gov (United States)

Raskind, Ilana G; Woodruff, Rebecca C; Ballard, Denise; Cherry, Sabrina T; Daniel, Sandra; Haardörfer, Regine; Kegler, Michelle C

2017-06-01

Although young adult women consume the majority of their total daily energy intake from home food sources, the decision-making processes that shape their home food environments have received limited attention. Further, how decision-making may be affected by the transformative experience of motherhood is unknown. In this study, we explore the factors that influence two key decision-making processes-food choices while grocery shopping and the use of non-home food sources-and whether there are differences by motherhood status. In-depth interviews were conducted with 40 women, aged 20-29, living in southwest Georgia. Thematic analysis was used to analyze qualitative data stratified by whether or not children were present in the home. Decision-making was affected by numerous factors, which differed across groups. In regard to grocery shopping, women with children more frequently discussed the influence of nutrition and the preferences of children, while women without children more frequently discussed the influence of taste and the preferences of other household members. Cost, convenience, weight control, and pre-planning meals emerged as salient in both groups. In regard to the use of non-home food sources, convenience and taste were discussed by both groups, while social factors were only discussed by women without children. The cost of eating out was the only reason cited for eating inside the home, and this factor only emerged among women with children. Motherhood may be an important contributor to the decision-making processes that shape young adult women's home food environments. Interventions may find success in framing messaging to emphasize factors identified as motivating healthy decisions, such as protecting the health of children, and practical strategies may be adapted from those already in use, such as pre-planning and budgeting for healthy meals. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Visual histories of decision processes for collaborative decision making

OpenAIRE

Kozlova, Karine

2016-01-01

Remembering, understanding and reconstructing past activities is a necessary part of any learning, sense-making or decision making process. It is also essential for any collaborative activity. This dissertation investigates the design and evaluation of systems to support decision remembering, understanding and reconstruction by groups and individuals. By conducting three qualitative case studies of small professional groups, we identify the critical activities where history functionality is n...

Strategic enterprise resource planning in a health-care system using a multicriteria decision-making model.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Chang Won; Kwak, N K

2011-04-01

This paper deals with strategic enterprise resource planning (ERP) in a health-care system using a multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) model. The model is developed and analyzed on the basis of the data obtained from a leading patient-oriented provider of health-care services in Korea. Goal criteria and priorities are identified and established via the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Goal programming (GP) is utilized to derive satisfying solutions for designing, evaluating, and implementing an ERP. The model results are evaluated and sensitivity analyses are conducted in an effort to enhance the model applicability. The case study provides management with valuable insights for planning and controlling health-care activities and services.

Scalable approximate policies for Markov decision process models of hospital elective admissions.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, George; Lizotte, Dan; Hoey, Jesse

2014-05-01

To demonstrate the feasibility of using stochastic simulation methods for the solution of a large-scale Markov decision process model of on-line patient admissions scheduling. The problem of admissions scheduling is modeled as a Markov decision process in which the states represent numbers of patients using each of a number of resources. We investigate current state-of-the-art real time planning methods to compute solutions to this Markov decision process. Due to the complexity of the model, traditional model-based planners are limited in scalability since they require an explicit enumeration of the model dynamics. To overcome this challenge, we apply sample-based planners along with efficient simulation techniques that given an initial start state, generate an action on-demand while avoiding portions of the model that are irrelevant to the start state. We also propose a novel variant of a popular sample-based planner that is particularly well suited to the elective admissions problem. Results show that the stochastic simulation methods allow for the problem size to be scaled by a factor of almost 10 in the action space, and exponentially in the state space. We have demonstrated our approach on a problem with 81 actions, four specialities and four treatment patterns, and shown that we can generate solutions that are near-optimal in about 100s. Sample-based planners are a viable alternative to state-based planners for large Markov decision process models of elective admissions scheduling. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Optimizing perioperative decision making: improved information for clinical workflow planning.

Science.gov (United States)

Doebbeling, Bradley N; Burton, Matthew M; Wiebke, Eric A; Miller, Spencer; Baxter, Laurence; Miller, Donald; Alvarez, Jorge; Pekny, Joseph

2012-01-01

Perioperative care is complex and involves multiple interconnected subsystems. Delayed starts, prolonged cases and overtime are common. Surgical procedures account for 40-70% of hospital revenues and 30-40% of total costs. Most planning and scheduling in healthcare is done without modern planning tools, which have potential for improving access by assisting in operations planning support. We identified key planning scenarios of interest to perioperative leaders, in order to examine the feasibility of applying combinatorial optimization software solving some of those planning issues in the operative setting. Perioperative leaders desire a broad range of tools for planning and assessing alternate solutions. Our modeled solutions generated feasible solutions that varied as expected, based on resource and policy assumptions and found better utilization of scarce resources. Combinatorial optimization modeling can effectively evaluate alternatives to support key decisions for planning clinical workflow and improving care efficiency and satisfaction.

Community facilitation of problem structuring and decision making processes: Experiences from the EU LEADER+ programme

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vidal, Rene Victor Valqui

2009-01-01

This paper reports on the work carried out supporting a rural community in Denmark under the LEADER+ programme. This is a programme that supports development in particularly vulnerable rural regions of the European countries members of EU. It supports creative and innovative projects that can...... contribute to long-term and sustainable development in these regions. The main tasks have been the organisation and facilitation of conferences and workshops to structure the problematic situation of identifying and designing innovative projects for the development of the community and to support decision...... making processes related to the agreement on action plans. Learning to design, plan, manage and facilitate conferences and workshops have also being another central activity. The main purpose of these conferences and workshops was not only problem structuring and decision making in connection...

General practitioners' decision to refer patients to dietitians: insight into the clinical reasoning process.

Science.gov (United States)

Pomeroy, Sylvia E M; Cant, Robyn P

2010-01-01

The aim of this project was to describe general practitioners' (GPs') decision-making process for reducing nutrition risk in cardiac patients through referring a patient to a dietitian. The setting was primary care practices in Victoria. The method we employed was mixed methods research: in Study 1, 30 GPs were interviewed. Recorded interviews were transcribed and narratives analysed thematically. Study 2 involved a survey of statewide random sample of GPs. Frequencies and analyses of variance were used to explore the impact of demographic variables on decisions to refer. We found that the referral decision involved four elements: (i) synthesising management information; (ii) forecasting outcomes; (iii) planning management; and (iv) actioning referrals. GPs applied cognitive and collaborative strategies to develop a treatment plan. In Study 2, doctors (248 GPs, 30%) concurred with identified barriers/enabling factors for patients' referral. There was no association between GPs' sex, age or hours worked per week and referral factors. We conclude that a GP's judgment to offer a dietetic referral to an adult patient is a four element reasoning process. Attention to how these elements interact may assist clinical decision making. Apart from the sole use of prescribed medications/surgical procedures for cardiac care, patients offered a dietetic referral were those who were considered able to commit to dietary change and who were willing to attend a dietetic consultation. Improvements in provision of patients' nutrition intervention information to GPs are needed. Further investigation is justified to determine how to resolve this practice gap.

Intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) for locally advanced paranasal sinus tumors: incorporating clinical decisions in the optimization process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tsien, Christina; Eisbruch, Avraham; McShan, Daniel; Kessler, Marc; Marsh, Robin C.; Fraass, Benedick

2003-01-01

Purpose: Intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) plans require decisions about priorities and tradeoffs among competing goals. This study evaluates the incorporation of various clinical decisions into the optimization system, using locally advanced paranasal sinus tumors as a model. Methods and Materials: Thirteen patients with locally advanced paranasal sinus tumors were retrospectively replanned using inverse planning. Two clinical decisions were assumed: (1) Spare both optic pathways (OP), or (2) Spare only the contralateral OP. In each case, adequate tumor coverage (treated to 70 Gy in 35 fractions) was required. Two beamlet IMRT plans were thus developed for each patient using a class solution cost function. By altering one key variable at a time, different levels of risk of OP toxicity and planning target volume (PTV) compromise were compared in a systematic manner. The resulting clinical tradeoffs were analyzed using dosimetric criteria, tumor control probability (TCP), equivalent uniform dose (EUD), and normal tissue complication probability. Results: Plan comparisons representing the two clinical decisions (sparing both OP and sparing only the contralateral OP), with respect to minimum dose, TCP, V 95 , and EUD, demonstrated small, yet statistically significant, differences. However, when individual cases were analyzed further, significant PTV underdosage (>5%) was present in most cases for plans sparing both OP. In 6/13 cases (46%), PTV underdosage was between 5% and 15%, and in 3 cases (23%) was greater than 15%. By comparison, adequate PTV coverage was present in 8/13 cases (62%) for plans sparing only the contralateral OP. Mean target EUD comparisons between the two plans (including 9 cases where a clinical tradeoff between PTV coverage and OP sparing was required) were similar: 68.6 Gy and 69.1 Gy, respectively (p=0.02). Mean TCP values for those 9 cases were 56.5 vs. 61.7, respectively (p=0.006). Conclusions: In IMRT plans for paranasal sinus tumors

A Novel Decision Aid to Support Informed Decision-Making Process in Patients with a Symptomatic Nonlower Pole Renal Stone <20 mm in Diameter.

Science.gov (United States)

Gökce, Mehmet İlker; Esen, Barış; Sancı, Adem; Akpınar, Cağrı; Süer, Evren; Gülpınar, Ömer

2017-07-01

Stone disease is an important health problem, and patients have different treatment choices. Shared decision making is recommended for deciding the treatment type, but patient education is necessary. Decision aids (DAs) are used for this aim, and herein, we developed a novel DA for patients with symptomatic nonlower pole renal stones group assessment resulted in a total score of 50/54. Patient evaluation of the DA resulted in favorable outcomes, and patients generally recommended its use by other patients. This novel DA for patients with a symptomatic nonlower pole renal stone <20 mm showed promising results and was well accepted by the patients. We believe that this DA will have a positive impact on patients' level of knowledge. Increased level of knowledge will also improve the patients' contribution to the shared decision-making process. A further prospective randomized trial to compare with the standard patient informing process is also planned.

Getting ocean acidification on decision makers' to-do lists: dissecting the process through case studies

Science.gov (United States)

Cooley, Sarah R.; Jewett, Elizabeth B.; Reichert, Julie; Robbins, Lisa L.; Shrestha, Gyami; Wieczorek, Dan; Weisberg, Stephen B.

2015-01-01

Much of the detailed, incremental knowledge being generated by current scientific research on ocean acidification (OA) does not directly address the needs of decision makers, who are asking broad questions such as: Where will OA harm marine resources next? When will this happen? Who will be affected? And how much will it cost? In this review, we use a series of mainly US-based case studies to explore the needs of local to international-scale groups that are making decisions to address OA concerns. Decisions concerning OA have been made most naturally and easily when information needs were clearly defined and closely aligned with science outputs and initiatives. For decisions requiring more complex information, the process slows dramatically. Decision making about OA is greatly aided (1) when a mixture of specialists participates, including scientists, resource users and managers, and policy and law makers; (2) when goals can be clearly agreed upon at the beginning of the process; (3) when mixed groups of specialists plan and create translational documents explaining the likely outcomes of policy decisions on ecosystems and natural resources; (4) when regional work on OA fits into an existing set of priorities concerning climate or water quality; and (5) when decision making can be reviewed and enhanced.

Influence of information on behavioral effects in decision processes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Angelarosa Longo

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Rational models in decision processes are marked out by many anomalies, caused by behavioral issues. We point out the importance of information in causing inconsistent preferences in a decision process. In a single or multi agent decision process each mental model is influenced by the presence, the absence or false information about the problem or about other members of the decision making group. The difficulty in modeling these effects increases because behavioral biases influence also the modeler. Behavioral Operational Research (BOR studies these influences to create efficient models to define choices in similar decision processes.

Dual processing model of medical decision-making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Djulbegovic Benjamin

2012-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Dual processing theory of human cognition postulates that reasoning and decision-making can be described as a function of both an intuitive, experiential, affective system (system I and/or an analytical, deliberative (system II processing system. To date no formal descriptive model of medical decision-making based on dual processing theory has been developed. Here we postulate such a model and apply it to a common clinical situation: whether treatment should be administered to the patient who may or may not have a disease. Methods We developed a mathematical model in which we linked a recently proposed descriptive psychological model of cognition with the threshold model of medical decision-making and show how this approach can be used to better understand decision-making at the bedside and explain the widespread variation in treatments observed in clinical practice. Results We show that physician’s beliefs about whether to treat at higher (lower probability levels compared to the prescriptive therapeutic thresholds obtained via system II processing is moderated by system I and the ratio of benefit and harms as evaluated by both system I and II. Under some conditions, the system I decision maker’s threshold may dramatically drop below the expected utility threshold derived by system II. This can explain the overtreatment often seen in the contemporary practice. The opposite can also occur as in the situations where empirical evidence is considered unreliable, or when cognitive processes of decision-makers are biased through recent experience: the threshold will increase relative to the normative threshold value derived via system II using expected utility threshold. This inclination for the higher diagnostic certainty may, in turn, explain undertreatment that is also documented in the current medical practice. Conclusions We have developed the first dual processing model of medical decision-making that has potential to

Planning woody biomass logistics for energy production: A strategic decision model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frombo, F.; Robba, M.; Minciardi, R.; Sacile, R.; Rosso, F.

2009-01-01

One of the key factors on which the sustainable development of modern society should be based is the possibility to take advantage of renewable energies. Biomass resources are one of the most common and widespread resources in the world. Their use to produce energy has many advantages, such as the reduction of greenhouse emissions. This paper describes a GIS-based Environmental Decision Support System (EDSS) to define planning and management strategies for the optimal logistics for energy production from woody biomass, such as forest biomass, agricultural scraps and industrial and urban untreated wood residues. The EDSS is characterized by three main levels: the GIS, the database, and the optimization. The optimization module is divided in three sub-modules to face different kinds of decision problems: strategic planning, tactical planning, and operational management. The aim of this article is to describe the strategic planning level in detail. The decision variables are represented by plant capacity and harvested biomass in a specific forest parcel for each slope class, while the objective function is the sum of the costs related to plant installation and maintenance, biomass transportation and collection, minus the benefits coming from the energy sales at the current market price, including the renewable energy certificates. Moreover, the optimization problem is structured through a set of parameters and equations that are able to encompass different energy conversion technologies (pyrolysis, gasification or combustion) in the system. A case study on the Liguria Region (Savona Province) is presented and results are discussed. (author)

The decision-making process and EIA in connection with the siting of nuclear waste facilities - a municipal perspective

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carlsson, Torsten [Oskarshamn Municipality (Sweden)

1995-12-01

Past experiences from siting of nuclear facilities at Oskarshamn, Sweden are reviewed. This siting were carried out in a traditional manner for that time, i e it was decided to locate the facility at a particular site, then this decision was made public, and finally the decision was defended. New plans now exists for locating nuclear waste facilities to Oskarshamn, and this contribution discusses what the local communities demand from the EIA and EIS processes for producing a meaningful basis for decision-making. 9 refs.

Communicating climate information: travelling through the decision-making process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stoverinck, F.; Dubois, G.; Amelung, B.

2013-01-01

Climate change forces society to adapt. Adaptation strategies are preferably based on the best available climate information. Climate projections, however, often inform adaptation strategies after being interpreted once or several times. This process affects the original message put forward by climate scientists when presenting the basic climate projections, in particular regarding uncertainties. The nature of this effect and its implications for decision-making are as yet poorly understood. This paper explores the nature and consequences of a) the communication tools used by scientists and experts, and b)changes in the communicated information as it travels through the decision-making process. It does so by analysing the interpretative steps taken in a sample of 25 documents, pertaining to the field of public policies for climate change impact assessment and adaptation strategies. Five phases in the provisioning of climate information are distinguished: pre-existing knowledge (i.e. climate models and data), climate- change projection, impact assessment, adaptation strategy, and adaptation plan. Between the phases, climate information is summarized and synthesised in order to be passed on. The results show that in the sample information on uncertainty is under-represented: e.g. studies focus on only one scenario, and/or disregard probability distributions. In addition, visualization tools are often used ineffectively, leading to confusion and unintended interpretations. Several recommendations are presented. A better training of climatologists to communication issues, but also a training to climatology for decision makers are required, as well as more cautious and robust adaptation strategies, accounting for the uncertainty inherent to climate projections. (authors)

SCENARIO PLANNING AS LEARNING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antonio Lourenço Junior

2010-10-01

Full Text Available Scenario Planning has been increasingly used, from its introduction to the decision process as effective tools to test decisions, and improve performance in a dynamic environment (Chermack, 2005. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate the potential of an experimental Scenario Planning Model to mobilize, encourage and add more content to the organization’s decision making process – mainly with respect to Strategic Plans of two governmental institutions, a pharmaceutical company and a technology education foundation.  This study describes the application stages of a hybrid scenario-planning model – herein referred to as Planning as Learning – via action-research, showing the scenarios resulting from the experiment and describes the main results of an assessment of such practice. In order to do that, two well-established Scenario Planning models (Prospective school and Shell’s model were analyzed. They were used as a reference for the proposition and application of an experimental model in the two study objects. A questionnaire was used to assess the technique impact. It was possible to obtain high levels of reliability. In-depth interviews were also conducted with the participants. At the end, the results confirmed the model efficiency as a basis for decision making in the competitive environment in which the two institutions are inserted, also to encourage the learning process as a group, as observed throughout the work.

Office of River Protection, plan for Developing Hanford Tank Waste Processing Alternatives, Revision 1, December 15, 1999

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

WODRICH, D.D.

2000-01-01

In August 2000, The Department of Energy (DOE) must decide whether to authorize BNFL Inc. (BNFL) to construct and operate tank waste processing facilities as proposed or to take another path. This will be a multi-billion dollar commitment, requiring that the best path forward be chosen. The plan for reaching this decision is described in reference 1. The alternative evaluations in this plan are directed toward acquiring information needed for the August 2000 decision and for preparing an alternate path plan, should an acceptable agreement with BNFL not be reached. Many of the alternatives considered may still be applicable for failures that could occur after the year 2000, however, depending on the cause of later failures, others alternatives may need to be developed

Introduction to Strategic Planning in Student Affairs: A Model for Process and Elements of a Plan

Science.gov (United States)

Ellis, Shannon E.

2010-01-01

Planning from a strategic perspective has been a mainstay of organizational management for decades. Founded in the private sector, strategic planning is now embraced by the nonprofit world as a catalyst for sound resource allocation, transformative decision making, and motivating staff. Student affairs professionals who think, plan, and act…

Exploring the Reshoring and Insourcing Decision Making Process

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bals, Lydia; Kirchoff, Jon F.; Foerstl, Kai

2016-01-01

The topics of reshoring and insourcing have recently become more widely discussed among operations management and international business scholars and managers, as some firms are revoking their offshoring and outsourcing decisions. This research focuses on and clarifies the decision making process...... organizational readiness in addition to decision drivers, improve coverage of the implementation stage and explore further contingency factors such as technological advancement as well as to focus on decision makers as the unit of analysis.......The topics of reshoring and insourcing have recently become more widely discussed among operations management and international business scholars and managers, as some firms are revoking their offshoring and outsourcing decisions. This research focuses on and clarifies the decision making processes...

Control Design for Untimed Petri Nets Using Markov Decision Processes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cherki Daoui

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Design of control sequences for discrete event systems (DESs has been presented modelled by untimed Petri nets (PNs. PNs are well-known mathematical and graphical models that are widely used to describe distributed DESs, including choices, synchronizations and parallelisms. The domains of application include, but are not restricted to, manufacturing systems, computer science and transportation networks. We are motivated by the observation that such systems need to plan their production or services. The paper is more particularly concerned with control issues in uncertain environments when unexpected events occur or when control errors disturb the behaviour of the system. To deal with such uncertainties, a new approach based on discrete time Markov decision processes (MDPs has been proposed that associates the modelling power of PNs with the planning power of MDPs. Finally, the simulation results illustrate the benefit of our method from the computational point of view. (original abstract

Explicable Planning and Replanning for Human-in-the-loop Decision Support

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — For the decision support scenarios that are particularly relevant to NASA, such as planning for human space missions, human operators will need a system that can (i)...

Theoretical aspects of cellular decision-making and information-processing.

Science.gov (United States)

Kobayashi, Tetsuya J; Kamimura, Atsushi

2012-01-01

Microscopic biological processes have extraordinary complexity and variety at the sub-cellular, intra-cellular, and multi-cellular levels. In dealing with such complex phenomena, conceptual and theoretical frameworks are crucial, which enable us to understand seemingly different intra- and inter-cellular phenomena from unified viewpoints. Decision-making is one such concept that has attracted much attention recently. Since a number of cellular behavior can be regarded as processes to make specific actions in response to external stimuli, decision-making can cover and has been used to explain a broad range of different cellular phenomena [Balázsi et al. (Cell 144(6):910, 2011), Zeng et al. (Cell 141(4):682, 2010)]. Decision-making is also closely related to cellular information-processing because appropriate decisions cannot be made without exploiting the information that the external stimuli contain. Efficiency of information transduction and processing by intra-cellular networks determines the amount of information obtained, which in turn limits the efficiency of subsequent decision-making. Furthermore, information-processing itself can serve as another concept that is crucial for understanding of other biological processes than decision-making. In this work, we review recent theoretical developments on cellular decision-making and information-processing by focusing on the relation between these two concepts.

Male Involvement in Family Planning Decision Making in Ile-Ife ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This study assessed men's awareness, attitude, and practice of modern contraceptive methods, determined the level of spousal communication, and investigated the correlates of men's opinion in family planning decision making in Ile-Ife, Nigeria. Quantitative methodology was employed in this cross-sectional descriptive ...

Influence of information on behavioral effects in decision processes

OpenAIRE

Angelarosa Longo; Viviana Ventre

2015-01-01

Rational models in decision processes are marked out by many anomalies, caused by behavioral issues. We point out the importance of information in causing inconsistent preferences in a decision process. In a single or multi agent decision process each mental model is influenced by the presence, the absence or false information about the problem or about other members of the decision making group. The difficulty in modeling these effects increases because behavioral biases influence also the m...

Decision support for integrated water-energy planning.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Kobos, Peter Holmes; Castillo, Cesar; Hart, William Eugene; Klise, Geoffrey T.

2009-10-01

Currently, electrical power generation uses about 140 billion gallons of water per day accounting for over 39% of all freshwater withdrawals thus competing with irrigated agriculture as the leading user of water. Coupled to this water use is the required pumping, conveyance, treatment, storage and distribution of the water which requires on average 3% of all electric power generated. While water and energy use are tightly coupled, planning and management of these fundamental resources are rarely treated in an integrated fashion. Toward this need, a decision support framework has been developed that targets the shared needs of energy and water producers, resource managers, regulators, and decision makers at the federal, state and local levels. The framework integrates analysis and optimization capabilities to identify trade-offs, and 'best' alternatives among a broad list of energy/water options and objectives. The decision support framework is formulated in a modular architecture, facilitating tailored analyses over different geographical regions and scales (e.g., national, state, county, watershed, NERC region). An interactive interface allows direct control of the model and access to real-time results displayed as charts, graphs and maps. Ultimately, this open and interactive modeling framework provides a tool for evaluating competing policy and technical options relevant to the energy-water nexus.

Dual processing model of medical decision-making

OpenAIRE

Djulbegovic, Benjamin; Hozo, Iztok; Beckstead, Jason; Tsalatsanis, Athanasios; Pauker, Stephen G

2012-01-01

Abstract Background Dual processing theory of human cognition postulates that reasoning and decision-making can be described as a function of both an intuitive, experiential, affective system (system I) and/or an analytical, deliberative (system II) processing system. To date no formal descriptive model of medical decision-making based on dual processing theory has been developed. Here we postulate such a model and apply it to a common clinical situation: whether treatment should be administe...

Information needs for water resources decision-making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sellers, J.

1993-01-01

Water and related resources planning and decision-making have developed to the state of multiple objective and/or multiple criteria analysis using complicated systems analysis. The objective of this paper is to indicate the major components of information needed to facilitate the planning process for resource utilization, and to provide desirable outputs from management schemes. The process could best be described as the proper development of Management Information Systems (MIS) or Decision Support Systems (DDS). Data and information systems are never completed and must be continually updated and modified. The exact composition of any system depends also upon the general type of decision techniques being used. A brief outline of the decision process is given with the remainder of the paper dealing with the types of information needed to support the decision system. (author). 34 refs

[Methodology for an appreciative, dynamic and collaborative process: 3rd Canary Islands (Spain) Health Plan].

Science.gov (United States)

O'Shanahan Juan, José Joaquín; Hernández Rodríguez, Miguel Ángel; Del Otero Sanz, Laura; Henríquez Suárez, José Andrés; Mahtani Chugani, Vinita

The need for new approaches to strategic planning by incorporating the perspectives of professionals and inhabitants has led to a new model for the 3rd Canary Islands (Spain) Health Plan (IIIPSC). A dual-phase participatory process using qualitative techniques is proposed: 1) local phase: a quantitative and qualitative study based on training and a research-action-participation initiative; and 2) insular phase: health conferences with face-to-face discussion of results in each health area (island) and proposals for action. The process prioritises problems and establishes a specific action plan for each island through initiatives that are considered to be viable, grouped by themes and weighted according to the potential impact on priority problems. This process of interaction may help to guide planning model changes and health policy decision-making, and was included in the IIIPSC Project for its parliamentary procedure. Copyright © 2016 SESPAS. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

THE USE OF TECHNICAL KNOWLEDGE AS DIRECTED TO THE IMPROVEMENT OF EVOLUTIONARY PROCESSES AND DECISION MAKING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Liane Mahlmann Kipper

2013-07-01

Full Text Available In the current scenario of organizations Process Management aims to perform process in an organized, prioritizing actions through techniques and methods that are linked to the improvement of the organization in the market segment it operates. As a determinant for achieving goals successfully, organizational memory is all important in the management of processes, allowing all areas meet in a systemic way, crediting their information to the various organizational sectors and thus using knowledge to direct an action with a focus planning to achieve strategic organizational goal. The organizational memory can be registered through the development of a knowledge base. The work in question aims to provide a better understanding of the importance of the knowledge base in an organization, to perform appropriate actions, planning, simulating and reaching a decision through meaningful data. Soon after the development of a bibliographic research, a bibliometric study on the proposed topic was accomplished with the main events of the Brazilian scientific areas of production engineering, analyzing how the topic has been addressed by authors in the areas of Process Management and Base Knowledge. The main results so far observed the need for the implementation of knowledge-based models in systems that seek to improve the execution of processes and thus reduce failures and decision-making processes more appropriate.

Decentralisation and health services delivery in Tanzania: Analysis of decision space in planning, allocation, and use of financial resources.

Science.gov (United States)

Kigume, Ramadhani; Maluka, Stephen; Kamuzora, Peter

2018-04-01

While decentralisation of health systems has been on the policy agenda in low-income and middle-income countries since the 1970s, many studies have focused on understanding who has more decision-making powers but less attention is paid to understand what those powers encompass. Using the decision space approach, this study aimed to understand the amount of decision-making space transferred from the central government to institutions at the periphery in the decentralised health system in Tanzania. The findings of this study indicated that the decentralisation process in Tanzania has provided authorities with a range of decision-making space. In the areas of priority setting and planning, district health authorities had moderate decision space. However, in the financial resource allocation and expenditure of funds from the central government, the districts had narrow decision-making space. The districts, nevertheless, had wider decision-making space in mobilising and using locally generated financial resources. However, the ability of the districts to allocate and use locally generated resources was constrained by bureaucratic procedures of the central government. The study concludes that decentralisation by devolution which is being promoted in the policy documents in Tanzania is yet to be realised at the district and local levels. The study recommends that the central government should provide more space to the decentralised district health systems to incorporate locally defined priorities in the district health plans. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Information Systems to Support a Decision Process at Stanford.

Science.gov (United States)

Chaffee, Ellen Earle

1982-01-01

When a rational decision process is desired, information specialists can contribute information and also contribute to the process in which that information is used, thereby promoting rational decision-making. The contribution of Stanford's information specialists to rational decision-making is described. (MLW)

Risk communication and trust in decision-maker action: a case study of the Giant Mine Remediation Plan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cynthia G. Jardine

2013-08-01

Full Text Available Background. The development and implementation of a remediation plan for the residual arsenic trioxide stored at the former Giant Mine site in the Canadian Northwest Territories has raised important issues related to trust. Social and individual trust of those responsible for making decisions on risks is critically important in community judgements on risk and the acceptability of risk management decisions. Trust is known to be affected by value similarity and confidence in past performance, which serve as interacting sources of cooperation in acting toward a common goal. Objective. To explore the elements of trust associated with the development and implementation of the Giant Mine Remediation Plan. Design. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with eight purposively selected key informants representing both various interested and affected parties and the two government proponents. Results. Five primary issues related to trust were identified by the participants: (1 a historical legacy of mistrust between the community (particularly Aboriginal peoples and government; (2 barriers to building trust with the federal government; (3 limited community input and control over the decision-making process; (4 the conflicted and confounded role of the government agencies being both proponent and regulator, and the resulting need for independent oversight; and (5 distrust of the government to commit to the perpetual care required for the remediation option selected. Conclusions. The dual-mode model of trust and confidence was shown to be a useful framework for understanding the pivotal role of trust in the development of the Giant Mine Remediation Plan. Failure to recognize issues of trust based on value dissimilarity and lack of confidence based on past performance have resulted in a lack of cooperation characterized by delayed remediation and a prolonged and expensive consultation process. Government recognition of the importance of trust to these

The Operational Planning Model of Transhipment Processes in the Port

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mia Jurjević

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Modelling of a traffic system refers to the efficiency of operations for establishing successful business performance by examining the possibilities for its improvement. The main purpose of each container terminal is to ensure continuity and dynamics of the flow of containers. The objective of this paper is to present a method for determining the amount of certain types of containers that can be transhipped at each berth, with the proper cargo handling, taking into account minimum total costs of transhipment. The mathematical model of planning the transhipment and transportation of containers at the terminal is presented. The optimal solution, obtained with the method of linear programming, represents a plan for container deployment that will ensure effective ongoing process of transhipment, providing the lowest transhipment costs. The proposed model, tested in the port of Rijeka, should be the basis for makingadequate business decisions in the operational planning of the container terminal.

Improving energy audit process and report outcomes through planning initiatives

Science.gov (United States)

Sprau Coulter, Tabitha L.

Energy audits and energy models are an important aspect of the retrofit design process, as they provide project teams with an opportunity to evaluate a facilities current building systems' and energy performance. The information collected during an energy audit is typically used to develop an energy model and an energy audit report that are both used to assist in making decisions about the design and implementation of energy conservation measures in a facility. The current lack of energy auditing standards results in a high degree of variability in energy audit outcomes depending on the individual performing the audit. The research presented is based on the conviction that performing an energy audit and producing a value adding energy model for retrofit buildings can benefit from a revised approach. The research was divided into four phases, with the initial three phases consisting of: 1.) process mapping activity - aimed at reducing variability in the energy auditing and energy modeling process. 2.) survey analysis -- To examine the misalignment between how industry members use the top energy modeling tools compared to their intended use as defined by software representatives. 3.) sensitivity analysis -- analysis of the affect key energy modeling inputs are having on energy modeling analysis results. The initial three phases helped define the need for an improved energy audit approach that better aligns data collection with facility owners' needs and priorities. The initial three phases also assisted in the development of a multi-criteria decision support tool that incorporates a House of Quality approach to guide a pre-audit planning activity. For the fourth and final research phase explored the impacts and evaluation methods of a pre-audit planning activity using two comparative energy audits as case studies. In each case, an energy audit professionals was asked to complete an audit using their traditional methods along with an audit which involved them first

The application of reduced-processing decision support systems to facilitate the acquisition of decision-making skills.

Science.gov (United States)

Perry, Nathan C; Wiggins, Mark W; Childs, Merilyn; Fogarty, Gerard

2013-06-01

The study was designed to examine whether the availability of reduced-processing decision support system interfaces could improve the decision making of inexperienced personnel in the context of Although research into reduced-processing decision support systems has demonstrated benefits in minimizing cognitive load, these benefits have not typically translated into direct improvements in decision accuracy because of the tendency for inexperienced personnel to focus on less-critical information. The authors investigated whether reduced-processing interfaces that direct users' attention toward the most critical cues for decision making can produce improvements in decision-making performance. Novice participants made incident command-related decisions in experimental conditions that differed according to the amount of information that was available within the interface, the level of control that they could exert over the presentation of information, and whether they had received decision training. The results revealed that despite receiving training, participants improved in decision accuracy only when they were provided with an interface that restricted information access to the most critical cues. It was concluded that an interface that restricts information access to only the most critical cues in the scenario can facilitate improvements in decision performance. Decision support system interfaces that encourage the processing of the most critical cues have the potential to improve the accuracy and timeliness of decisions made by inexperienced personnel.

43 CFR 36.7 - Decision process.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... so notify the applicant in writing. (2) Each appropriate Federal agency in making its decision shall... 43 Public Lands: Interior 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Decision process. 36.7 Section 36.7 Public Lands: Interior Office of the Secretary of the Interior TRANSPORTATION AND UTILITY SYSTEMS IN AND ACROSS...

A modeling framework for optimal long-term care insurance purchase decisions in retirement planning.

Science.gov (United States)

Gupta, Aparna; Li, Lepeng

2004-05-01

The level of need and costs of obtaining long-term care (LTC) during retired life require that planning for it is an integral part of retirement planning. In this paper, we divide retirement planning into two phases, pre-retirement and post-retirement. On the basis of four interrelated models for health evolution, wealth evolution, LTC insurance premium and coverage, and LTC cost structure, a framework for optimal LTC insurance purchase decisions in the pre-retirement phase is developed. Optimal decisions are obtained by developing a trade-off between post-retirement LTC costs and LTC insurance premiums and coverage. Two-way branching models are used to model stochastic health events and asset returns. The resulting optimization problem is formulated as a dynamic programming problem. We compare the optimal decision under two insurance purchase scenarios: one assumes that insurance is purchased for good and other assumes it may be purchased, relinquished and re-purchased. Sensitivity analysis is performed for the retirement age.

Malaria surveillance and use of evidence in planning and decision ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

PROMOTING ACCESS TO AFRICAN RESEARCH ... The objectives of this study were to (i) assess malaria surveillance system at facility and ... Results: Three district officials and 17 health facility workers from both public and private ... district is weak and utilization of evidence for planning and decision making is poor.

Combining ecosystem services assessment with structured decision making to support ecological restoration planning.

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, David M; Mazzotta, Marisa; Bousquin, Justin

2018-04-10

Accounting for ecosystem services in environmental decision making is an emerging research topic. Modern frameworks for ecosystem services assessment emphasize evaluating the social benefits of ecosystems, in terms of who benefits and by how much, to aid in comparing multiple courses of action. Structured methods that use decision analytic-approaches are emerging for the practice of ecological restoration. In this article, we combine ecosystem services assessment with structured decision making to estimate and evaluate measures of the potential benefits of ecological restoration with a case study in the Woonasquatucket River watershed, Rhode Island, USA. We partnered with a local watershed management organization to analyze dozens of candidate wetland restoration sites for their abilities to supply five ecosystem services-flood water retention, scenic landscapes, learning opportunities, recreational opportunities, and birds. We developed 22 benefit indicators related to the ecosystem services as well as indicators for social equity and reliability that benefits will sustain in the future. We applied conceptual modeling and spatial analysis to estimate indicator values for each candidate restoration site. Lastly, we developed a decision support tool to score and aggregate the values for the organization to screen the restoration sites. Results show that restoration sites in urban areas can provide greater social benefits than sites in less urban areas. Our research approach is general and can be used to investigate other restoration planning studies that perform ecosystem services assessment and fit into a decision-making process.

Cost Decision Support in Product Design

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Liebers, A.; Kals, H.J.J.

1997-01-01

The constraints addressed in decision making during product design, process planning and production planning determine the admissible solution space for the manufacture of products. The solution space determines largely the costs that are incurred in the production process. In order to be able to

Use of interactive data visualization in multi-objective forest planning.

Science.gov (United States)

Haara, Arto; Pykäläinen, Jouni; Tolvanen, Anne; Kurttila, Mikko

2018-03-15

Common to multi-objective forest planning situations is that they all require comparisons, searches and evaluation among decision alternatives. Through these actions, the decision maker can learn from the information presented and thus make well-justified decisions. Interactive data visualization is an evolving approach that supports learning and decision making in multidimensional decision problems and planning processes. Data visualization contributes the formation of mental image data and this process is further boosted by allowing interaction with the data. In this study, we introduce a multi-objective forest planning decision problem framework and the corresponding characteristics of data. We utilize the framework with example planning data to illustrate and evaluate the potential of 14 interactive data visualization techniques to support multi-objective forest planning decisions. Furthermore, broader utilization possibilities of these techniques to incorporate the provisioning of ecosystem services into forest management and planning are discussed. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Thinking about the patient's wishes: practical wisdom of discharge planning nurses in assisting surrogate decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Kageyama, Yoko; Asano, Midori

2017-12-01

The accelerating trend towards shorter hospital stays in Japan has made modes of decision-making essential for effective patient transition from the hospital to recuperation in the regional community, and the ageing of the population has brought a rise in surrogate decision-making by the families of patients lacking decision-making ('self-decision') capacity. To verbalise and elucidate the practical wisdom of discharge planning nurses by focusing on the perceptions and judgements, they apply in practice and describing their methodology in concrete terms. Participants were six discharge planning nurses and one person with previous experience as a discharge planning nurse, all working at discharge planning departments of acute care hospitals. Separate, semi-structured, interactive interviews were conducted with each participant. The study design was qualitative descriptive in form with qualitative content analysis. All participants provided written informed consent to participate in the study, which was approved by the study institution. Three concepts were extracted as the basis for discharge planning nurses' perception and judgement at acute care hospitals: working for mutual envisionment of the available postdischarge options; helping the family act as spokesperson(s) for the patient's wishes; and understanding the family inclusive of the patient as a relationship of strongly interaffecting interests. The practical wisdom of the nurse, working in mutual envisionment with the family, and collaborative decision-making through discussion with those who know the patient, leads to rational discharge assistance. © 2017 Nordic College of Caring Science.

The text plan concept: contributions to the writing planning process

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ana Lúcia Tinoco Cabral

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Students - at different levels, ranging from early grades up to PhD - face problems both on comprehension and text production. This paper focuses on the text plan concept according to the DTA (Discourse Text Analysis approach, i.e., a principle of organization that allows students to put into practice the production intention as well as to arrange text information while producing; being responsible for the text compositional structure (Adam, 2008. The study analyzes the relation between text plan and the writing planning process, in which the first one provides the second with theoretical support. In order to develop such research, the study covers some issues related to the reading skill, analyzes an argumentative text as per its textual plan, and presents some reflections on the writing process, focusing on the relation between textual plan and the writing planning process.

Hanford Integrated Planning Process: 1993 Hanford Site-specific science and technology plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-12-01

This document is the FY 1993 report on Hanford Site-specific science and technology (S ampersand T) needs for cleanup of the Site as developed via the Hanford Integrated Planning Process (HIPP). It identifies cleanup problems that lack demonstrated technology solutions and technologies that require additional development. Recommendations are provided regarding allocation of funding to address Hanford's highest-priority technology improvement needs, technology development needs, and scientific research needs, all compiled from a Sitewide perspective. In the past, the S ampersand T agenda for Hanford Site cleanup was sometimes driven by scientists and technologists, with minimal input from the ''problem owners'' (i.e., Westinghouse Hanford Company [WHC] staff who are responsible for cleanup activities). At other times, the problem-owners made decisions to proceed with cleanup without adequate scientific and technological inputs. Under both of these scenarios, there was no significant stakeholder involvement in the decision-making process. One of the key objectives of HIPP is to develop an understanding of the integrated S ampersand T requirements to support the cleanup mission, (a) as defined by the needs of the problem owners, the values of the stakeholders, and the technology development expertise that exists at Hanford and elsewhere. This requires a periodic, systematic assessment of these needs and values to appropriately define a comprehensive technology development program and a complementary scientific research program. Basic to our success is a methodology that is defensible from a technical perspective and acceptable to the stakeholders

Modeling as a Decision-Making Process

Science.gov (United States)

Bleiler-Baxter, Sarah K.; Stephens, D. Christopher; Baxter, Wesley A.; Barlow, Angela T.

2017-01-01

The goal in this article is to support teachers in better understanding what it means to model with mathematics by focusing on three key decision-making processes: Simplification, Relationship Mapping, and Situation Analysis. The authors use the Theme Park task to help teachers develop a vision of how students engage in these three decision-making…

Decision analysis in the expansion planning of the Mexican Electrical System

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Toupiol, S.; Martin del Campo M, C.; Ortega C, R.

2007-01-01

In the last years, the planning of the National Interconnected System has been guided mainly to technologies of combined cycle, contributing to the establishment of a generation system little diversified and clerk of the readiness and volatility of the prices of natural gas. On the other hand, the electric system continues expanding without to consider the emissions of gases coming from the electric generation and the significant participation of the renewable and nuclear technologies in the production of electricity like decisive parameters for the long term planning, for what the developed plans are economically attractive but they don't contribute to the respect of the environment, to the sustainable development, neither to the diversification. With base to the above-mentioned intended in this work to develop viable outlines for the long term expansion of the National Interconnected System (period 2005-2024), appealing to the pattern of uni nodal planning that uses the Federal Commission of Electricity at the moment (CFE) that is to say the pattern WASP given by the International Atomic Energy Agency. This way, you fixed as objective to propose two expansion alternatives to the reference plan developed by the CFE in 2005 for the period 2005-2024, with the purpose of not only looking for the good plan of these three plans in terms of the total cost of generation, but also in terms of the risk associated to the price of natural gas, the emissions of dioxide of sulfur and nitrogen oxides generated by the plants of the system and the diversity of the generation park. To compare the three developed plans, you applies an analysis of decision of multiple approaches based on the approach of Savage. Finally, starting from this analysis, he/she intended to determine if the plan of minimum cost represents the long term better option or if it suits but to expand the system being based on a plan that represents the best commitment cost-risk-emission-diversity. (Author)

Site selection process for new nuclear power plants - a method to support decision making and improving public participation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martins, Vivian B.; Cunha, Tatiana S. da; Simoes Filho, Francisco Fernando Lamego; Lapa, Celso Marcelo F.

2011-01-01

The Brazilian Energy Plan (PNE 2030) that guides the Government in formulating its strategy for expanding energy supply by 2030 highlights the need for the Brazilian electrical system have more than 4,000 MW from nuclear sources by 2025. Therefore, the Government presented a proposal to build four more nuclear power plants with capacity of 1,000 MW each, at first, two in the Northeast and two in Southeast. The selection and site assessment are key parts of the installation process of a nuclear plant and may significantly affect the cost, public acceptance and safety of the facility during its entire life cycle. The result of this initial stage, it can even seriously affect program success. Wrong decisions in the process of site selection may also require a financial commitment to higher planned in a later phase of the project, besides causing extensive and expensive downtime. Select the location where these units will be built is not a trivial process, because involves the consideration of multiple criteria and judgments in addition to obtaining, organizing and managing a diverse range of data, both qualitative and quantitative, to assist in decision making and ensure that the site selected is the most appropriate in relation to safety and technical, economic and environmental feasibility. This paper presents an overview of the site selection process and its stages, the criteria involved in each step, the tools to support decision making that can be used and the difficulties in applying a formal process of decision making. Also discussed are ways to make the process more transparent and democratic, increasing public involvement as a way to improve acceptance and reduce opposition from various sectors of society, trying to minimize the expense and time involved in the implementation of undertakings of this kind. (author)

AngelStow: A Commercial Optimization-Based Decision Support Tool for Stowage Planning

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Delgado-Ortegon, Alberto; Jensen, Rune Møller; Guilbert, Nicolas

save port fees, optimize use of vessel capacity, and reduce bunker consumption. Stowage Coordinators (SCs) produce these plans manually with the help of graphical tools, but high-quality SPs are hard to generate with the limited support they provide. In this abstract, we introduce AngelStow which...... is a commercial optimization-based decision support tool for stowing container vessels developed in collaboration between Ange Optimization and The IT University of Copenhagen. The tool assists SCs in the process of generating SPs interactively, focusing on satisfying and optimizing constraints and objectives...... that are tedious to deal with for humans, while letting the SCs use their expertise to deal with hard combinatorial objectives and corner cases....

The Effects of Scenario Planning on Participant Decision-Making Style

Science.gov (United States)

Chermack, Thomas J.; Nimon, Kim

2008-01-01

This research examines changes in decision-making styles as a result of participation in scenario planning. A quasi-experimental pretest-posttest design and several nonparametric tests were used to analyze data gathered from research participants in a technology firm in the Northeastern United States. Results show that participants tend to…

The decision-making process between rationality and emotions

OpenAIRE

Alvino, Letizia; Franco, Massimo

2017-01-01

The decision-making process has been analyzed in several disciplines (economics, social sciences, humanities, etc.) with the aim of creating models to help decision-makers in strategy formulation. The Organizational theory takes into account both the decision-making process of individuals and groups of a company. Numerous models have been built, which include a wide range of psychological, environmental, hierarchical factors, all of which only account the notion of rationality. In time, such ...

Tactical resource allocation and elective patient admission planning in care processes.

Science.gov (United States)

Hulshof, Peter J H; Boucherie, Richard J; Hans, Erwin W; Hurink, Johann L

2013-06-01

Tactical planning of resources in hospitals concerns elective patient admission planning and the intermediate term allocation of resource capacities. Its main objectives are to achieve equitable access for patients, to meet production targets/to serve the strategically agreed number of patients, and to use resources efficiently. This paper proposes a method to develop a tactical resource allocation and elective patient admission plan. These tactical plans allocate available resources to various care processes and determine the selection of patients to be served that are at a particular stage of their care process. Our method is developed in a Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) framework and copes with multiple resources, multiple time periods and multiple patient groups with various uncertain treatment paths through the hospital, thereby integrating decision making for a chain of hospital resources. Computational results indicate that our method leads to a more equitable distribution of resources and provides control of patient access times, the number of patients served and the fraction of allocated resource capacity. Our approach is generic, as the base MILP and the solution approach allow for including various extensions to both the objective criteria and the constraints. Consequently, the proposed method is applicable in various settings of tactical hospital management.

Dissociated neural processing for decisions in managers and non-managers.

Science.gov (United States)

Caspers, Svenja; Heim, Stefan; Lucas, Marc G; Stephan, Egon; Fischer, Lorenz; Amunts, Katrin; Zilles, Karl

2012-01-01

Functional neuroimaging studies of decision-making so far mainly focused on decisions under uncertainty or negotiation with other persons. Dual process theory assumes that, in such situations, decision making relies on either a rapid intuitive, automated or a slower rational processing system. However, it still remains elusive how personality factors or professional requirements might modulate the decision process and the underlying neural mechanisms. Since decision making is a key task of managers, we hypothesized that managers, facing higher pressure for frequent and rapid decisions than non-managers, prefer the heuristic, automated decision strategy in contrast to non-managers. Such different strategies may, in turn, rely on different neural systems. We tested managers and non-managers in a functional magnetic resonance imaging study using a forced-choice paradigm on word-pairs. Managers showed subcortical activation in the head of the caudate nucleus, and reduced hemodynamic response within the cortex. In contrast, non-managers revealed the opposite pattern. With the head of the caudate nucleus being an initiating component for process automation, these results supported the initial hypothesis, hinting at automation during decisions in managers. More generally, the findings reveal how different professional requirements might modulate cognitive decision processing.

75 FR 10308 - Fire Management Plan, Final Environmental Impact Statement, Record of Decision, Grand Canyon...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-03-05

... DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR National Park Service Fire Management Plan, Final Environmental Impact... Statement for the Fire Management Plan, Grand Canyon National Park. SUMMARY: Pursuant to the National... the Record of Decision for the Fire Management Plan, Grand Canyon National Park, Arizona. On January...

A Cognition-based View of Decision Processes in Complex Social-Ecological Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kathi K. Beratan

2007-06-01

Full Text Available This synthesis paper is intended to provide an overview of individual and collective decision-making processes that might serve as a theoretical foundation for a complexity-based approach to environmental policy design and natural resource management planning. Human activities are the primary drivers of change in the Earth's biosphere today, so efforts to shift the trajectory of social-ecological systems must focus on changes in individual and collective human behavior. Recent advances in understanding the biological basis of thought and memory offer insights of use in designing management and planning processes. The human brain has evolved ways of dealing with complexity and uncertainty, and is particularly attuned to social information. Changes in an individual's schemas, reflecting changes in the patterns of neural connections that are activated by particular stimuli, occur primarily through nonconsious processes in response to experiential learning during repeated exposure to novel situations, ideas, and relationships. Discourse is an important mechanism for schema modification, and thus for behavior change. Through discourse, groups of people construct a shared story - a collective model - that is useful for predicting likely outcomes of actions and events. In effect, good stories are models that filter and organize distributed knowledge about complex situations and relationships in ways that are readily absorbed by human cognitive processes. The importance of discourse supports the view that collaborative approaches are needed to effectively deal with environmental problems and natural resource management challenges. Methods derived from the field of mediation and dispute resolution can help us take advantage of the distinctly human ability to deal with complexity and uncertainty. This cognitive view of decision making supports fundamental elements of resilience management and adaptive co-management, including fostering social learning

Reducing Post-Decision Dissonance in International Decisions: The Analytic Hierarchy Process Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

DuBois, Frank L.

1999-01-01

Describes use of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) as a teaching tool to illustrate the complexities of decision making in an international environment. The AHP approach uses managerial input to develop pairwise comparisons of relevant decision criteria to efficiently generate an appropriate solution. (DB)

Being safe: making the decision to have a planned home birth in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Lothian, Judith A

2013-01-01

Although there is evidence that supports the safety of planned home birth for healthy women, less than 1 percent of women in the United States choose to have their baby at home. An ethnographic study of the experience of planned home birth provided rich descriptions of women's experiences planning, preparing for, and having a home birth.This article describes findings related to how women make the decision to have a planned home birth. For these women, being safe emerged as central in making the decision. For them, being safe included four factors: avoiding technological birth interventions, knowing the midwife and the midwife knowing them, feeling comfortable and protected at home, and knowing that backup hospital medical care was accessible if needed.

The administrative protection of local planning authorities against decisions on a higher level

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Steinberg, R.

1982-01-01

The author discusses governmental planning that influences local planning's scope of organization and limits local sovereinty which is established as a guarantee for local self-government. Those conflicts occurr in the case of country planning, various specific plans (such as road construction an tower and country planning, nature conservation and landscape planning), and planning permits (decisions to establish new plans according to civil air regulations and permits according to atomic law). Then the author describes the possibilities of legal protection in the case of an action for avoidance which he illustrates with some conflicting cases, laying special emphasis on the right of action of a community, and on the justification of the action for avoidance. (HSCH) [de

Strategic facility planning improves capital decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Reeve, J R

2001-03-01

A large, Midwestern IDS undertook a strategic facility-planning process to evaluate its facility portfolio and determine how best to allocate future investments in facility development. The IDS assembled a facility-planning team, which initiated the planning process with a market analysis to determine future market demands and identify service areas that warranted facility expansion. The team then analyzed each of the IDS's facilities from the perspective of uniform capacity measurements, highest and best use compared with needs, building condition and investment-worthiness, and facility growth and site development opportunities. Based on results of the analysis, the strategy adopted entailed, in part, shifting some space from inpatient care to ambulatory care services and demolishing and replacing the 11 percent of facilities deemed to be in the worst condition.

40 CFR 130.5 - Continuing planning process.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... QUALITY PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT § 130.5 Continuing planning process. (a) General. Each State shall establish and maintain a continuing planning process (CPP) as described under section 303(e)(3)(A)-(H) of... 40 Protection of Environment 21 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Continuing planning process. 130.5...

A Decision Support Tool for Planning the Sampling of Tank 19

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Edwards, T.B.

2002-01-01

The Statistical Consulting Section (SCS) of the Savannah River Technology Center (SRTC) was asked to develop a decision support system (DSS) to aid in the planning of the process to characterize the heel of Tank 19. This characterization is to be based on samples of the tank heel, and the DSS is to be used to help determine the number of samples that might be needed to provide a meaningful characterization based upon assumptions for relevant variations and volumes. The objective of this report is to describe the framework used to develop the DSS and to document its calculations. The DSS was developed as a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. Detailed input and output for two test cases are provided in the appendix as part of the documentation of this spreadsheet

Comparing multi-criteria decision analysis and integrated assessment to support long-term water supply planning.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lisa Scholten

Full Text Available We compare the use of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA-or more precisely, models used in multi-attribute value theory (MAVT-to integrated assessment (IA models for supporting long-term water supply planning in a small town case study in Switzerland. They are used to evaluate thirteen system scale water supply alternatives in four future scenarios regarding forty-four objectives, covering technical, social, environmental, and economic aspects. The alternatives encompass both conventional and unconventional solutions and differ regarding technical, spatial and organizational characteristics. This paper focuses on the impact assessment and final evaluation step of the structured MCDA decision support process. We analyze the performance of the alternatives for ten stakeholders. We demonstrate the implications of model assumptions by comparing two IA and three MAVT evaluation model layouts of different complexity. For this comparison, we focus on the validity (ranking stability, desirability (value, and distinguishability (value range of the alternatives given the five model layouts. These layouts exclude or include stakeholder preferences and uncertainties. Even though all five led us to identify the same best alternatives, they did not produce identical rankings. We found that the MAVT-type models provide higher distinguishability and a more robust basis for discussion than the IA-type models. The needed complexity of the model, however, should be determined based on the intended use of the model within the decision support process. The best-performing alternatives had consistently strong performance for all stakeholders and future scenarios, whereas the current water supply system was outperformed in all evaluation layouts. The best-performing alternatives comprise proactive pipe rehabilitation, adapted firefighting provisions, and decentralized water storage and/or treatment. We present recommendations for possible ways of improving water

A modularized framework for sales and operations planning with focus on process industries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sayeh Noroozi

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This paper suggests a modularized sales and operations planning (S&OP framework, consisting of content and process. The framework’s content is based on a typology of decoupling points in which the effect of decoupling points on the decision variables in S&OP is studied. The framework’s process takes a step back and addresses the need for a more elaborate design to precede the operational use of S&OP content for different production contexts. The framework supports both process industries (PIs and discrete manufacturing industries (DIs, and recognizes their specific requirements and reflects them in their S&OP. The differentiating characteristics of PIs and DIs are emphasized through three different decoupling points, namely: discretization decoupling point, control mode decoupling point, and customer order decoupling point. The suggested framework aims to fill the gap in the literature regarding the lack of aggregate planning processes that match the PIs’ specific requirements by reflecting the differentiating characteristics of PIs in S&OP.

Integration of IAM and GIS technologies to support decision making in the planning and procurement of physical infrastructure for the treatment of drug-resistant tuberculosis in South Africa

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Abbott, GR

2008-10-01

Full Text Available approach to strategic planning and the provision of accommodation be developed. This paper provides an overview of new processes and a toolkit being developed in South Africa to support decision making in the planning, procurement, management and operation...

Identifying knowledge in decision-making processes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Anna Rose Vagn; Ahmed-Kristensen, Saeema

2010-01-01

Managing knowledge reflects the innovation capability of a company. Mapping decision processes and links to knowledge is a way to learn more in structuring knowledge in innovation processes. Through an empirical study the paper aims to identify knowledge...

Cognitive processes, models and metaphors in decision research

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ben Newell

2008-03-01

Full Text Available Decision research in psychology has traditionally been influenced by the extit{homo oeconomicus} metaphor with its emphasis on normative models and deviations from the predictions of those models. In contrast, the principal metaphor of cognitive psychology conceptualizes humans as `information processors', employing processes of perception, memory, categorization, problem solving and so on. Many of the processes described in cognitive theories are similar to those involved in decision making, and thus increasing cross-fertilization between the two areas is an important endeavour. A wide range of models and metaphors has been proposed to explain and describe `information processing' and many models have been applied to decision making in ingenious ways. This special issue encourages cross-fertilization between cognitive psychology and decision research by providing an overview of current perspectives in one area that continues to highlight the benefits of the synergistic approach: cognitive modeling of multi-attribute decision making. In this introduction we discuss aspects of the cognitive system that need to be considered when modeling multi-attribute decision making (e.g., automatic versus controlled processing, learning and memory constraints, metacognition and illustrate how such aspects are incorporated into the approaches proposed by contributors to the special issue. We end by discussing the challenges posed by the contrasting and sometimes incompatible assumptions of the models and metaphors.

Working memory retrieval as a decision process.

Science.gov (United States)

Pearson, Benjamin; Raskevicius, Julius; Bays, Paul M; Pertzov, Yoni; Husain, Masud

2014-02-03

Working memory (WM) is a core cognitive process fundamental to human behavior, yet the mechanisms underlying it remain highly controversial. Here we provide a new framework for understanding retrieval of information from WM, conceptualizing it as a decision based on the quality of internal evidence. Recent findings have demonstrated that precision of WM decreases with memory load. If WM retrieval uses a decision process that depends on memory quality, systematic changes in response time distribution should occur as a function of WM precision. We asked participants to view sample arrays and, after a delay, report the direction of change in location or orientation of a probe. As WM precision deteriorated with increasing memory load, retrieval time increased systematically. Crucially, the shape of reaction time distributions was consistent with a linear accumulator decision process. Varying either task relevance of items or maintenance duration influenced memory precision, with corresponding shifts in retrieval time. These results provide strong support for a decision-making account of WM retrieval based on noisy storage of items. Furthermore, they show that encoding, maintenance, and retrieval in WM need not be considered as separate processes, but may instead be conceptually unified as operations on the same noise-limited, neural representation.

Male involvement in family planning decision making in sub-Saharan Africa- what the evidence suggests

Science.gov (United States)

Vouking, Marius Zambou; Evina, Christine Danielle; Tadenfok, Carine Nouboudem

2014-01-01

The World Health Organization (WHO) estimated in 2012 that 287,000 maternal deaths occurred in 2010; sub-Saharan Africa (56%) and Southern Asia (29%) accounted for the global burden of maternal deaths. Men are also recognized to be responsible for the large proportion of ill reproductive health suffered by their female partners. Male involvement helps not only in accepting a contraceptive but also in its effective use and continuation. The objectives were to assess men's knowledge, attitude, and practice of modern contraceptive methods; determine the level of spousal communication about family planning decision making; and investigate the correlates of men's opinion about their roles in family planning decision making. We searched the following electronic databases from January 1995 to December 2013: Medline, Embase, CINAHL, LILAS, International Bibliography of Social Sciences, Social Services Abstracts, and Sociological Abstracts. Along with MeSH terms and relevant keywords, we used the Cochrane Highly Sensitive Search Strategy for identifying reports of articles in PubMed. There were no restrictions to language or publication status. Of 137 hits, 7 papers met the inclusion criteria. The concept of family planning was well known to men. In the Nigerian study, almost (99%) men were aware of the existence of modern contraceptives, and most of them were aware of at least two modern methods. Awareness of the condom was highest (98%). In the Malawi study, all of the participants reported that they were not using contraception before the intervention. In Ethiopia, above 90% of male respondents have supported and approved using and choosing family planning methods, but none of them practiced terminal methods. Generally, more male respondents disagreed than agreed that men should make decisions about selected family planning issues in the family. Decision-making dynamics around method choice followed a slightly different pattern. According to female participants

Poly-generation planning: useful lessons from models and decision support tools

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rong, Aiying; Lahdelma, Risto; Grunow, Martin

2009-01-01

Increasing environmental concerns and the trends towards deregulation of energy markets have become an integral part of energy policy planning. Consequently, the requirement for environmentally sound energy production technologies has gained much ground in the energy business. The development...... of energy-efficient production technologies has experienced cogeneration and tri-generation and now is moving towards poly-generation. All these aspects have added new dimension in energy planning. The liberalized energy market requires techniques for planning under uncertainty. The growing environmental...... awareness calls for explicit handling of the impacts of energy generation on environment. Advanced production technologies require more sophisticated models for planning. The energy sector is one of the core application areas for operations research, decision sciences and intelligent techniques...

Poly-generation planning: useful lessons from models and decision support tools

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rong, Aiying; Lahdelma, Risto; Grunow, Martin

2009-01-01

of energy-efficient production technologies has experienced cogeneration and tri-generation and now is moving towards poly-generation. All these aspects have added new dimension in energy planning. The liberalized energy market requires techniques for planning under uncertainty. The growing environmental...... awareness calls for explicit handling of the impacts of energy generation on environment. Advanced production technologies require more sophisticated models for planning. The energy sector is one of the core application areas for operations research, decision sciences and intelligent techniques......Increasing environmental concerns and the trends towards deregulation of energy markets have become an integral part of energy policy planning. Consequently, the requirement for environmentally sound energy production technologies has gained much ground in the energy business. The development...

Requirements for advanced decision support tools in future distribution network planning

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Grond, M.O.W.; Morren, J.; Slootweg, J.G.

2013-01-01

This paper describes the need and requirements for advanced decision support tools in future network planning from a distribution network operator perspective. The existing tools will no longer be satisfactory for future application due to present developments in the electricity sector that increase

Beyond dual-process models: A categorisation of processes underlying intuitive judgement and decision making

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Glöckner, A.; Witteman, C.L.M.

2010-01-01

Intuitive-automatic processes are crucial for making judgements and decisions. The fascinating complexity of these processes has attracted many decision researchers, prompting them to start investigating intuition empirically and to develop numerous models. Dual-process models assume a clear

Analysis of Participatory Processes in the Formulation of Spatial Plan for Nature Park Medvednica

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nataša Lovrić

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Background and Purpose: This research aims to assess the stakeholders influence on spatial planning of Nature Park Medvednica, a mountainous protected area adjacent to Zagreb, the capital city of Croatia, which tries to hold on to the pressure of the urbanization. Because of the inexistence of spatial plan which is required with the Croatian laws, its area was significantly decreased in 2009. This kind of research has not been done yet for NP Medvednica, and it will provide a contribution to the process of developing a spatial Plan for NP Medvednica. Material and Methods: The study was conducted in the framework of stakeholder analysis, for which a series of in-depth interviews with - stakeholders were performed, and documents concerning the spatial plan were analysed. The data gained was processed in MAXQDA software for qualitative analysis. Results and Conclusion: The gathered data explains which are the disadvantages of the tree processes of the formulation of the spatial plan and is giving a possible theoretical explanation or a model which can be implied in any decision making process involving stakeholders in natural resources management in within a given political and cultural context. Description of the past and current spatial planning situation of the NP Medvednica was specified and issues and stakeholders concerning the creation of the spatial plan where identified. The key conflict areas that affect the formulation of spatial plan were detected and examined. The level of participation of stakeholders in the context of fulfilment of their own interests was assessed as well as the influence on participation processes of different stakeholder groups on the formulation of the spatial plan. In order to have proper citizens and stakeholders participation some changes in the legislation should take place.

Dissociated neural processing for decisions in managers and non-managers.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Svenja Caspers

Full Text Available Functional neuroimaging studies of decision-making so far mainly focused on decisions under uncertainty or negotiation with other persons. Dual process theory assumes that, in such situations, decision making relies on either a rapid intuitive, automated or a slower rational processing system. However, it still remains elusive how personality factors or professional requirements might modulate the decision process and the underlying neural mechanisms. Since decision making is a key task of managers, we hypothesized that managers, facing higher pressure for frequent and rapid decisions than non-managers, prefer the heuristic, automated decision strategy in contrast to non-managers. Such different strategies may, in turn, rely on different neural systems. We tested managers and non-managers in a functional magnetic resonance imaging study using a forced-choice paradigm on word-pairs. Managers showed subcortical activation in the head of the caudate nucleus, and reduced hemodynamic response within the cortex. In contrast, non-managers revealed the opposite pattern. With the head of the caudate nucleus being an initiating component for process automation, these results supported the initial hypothesis, hinting at automation during decisions in managers. More generally, the findings reveal how different professional requirements might modulate cognitive decision processing.

OCRWM's evolving strategic planning process and the 1990 plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sprecher, W.M.; Munro, J.F.; Champagne, D.L.

1991-01-01

In 1990, the Secretary of Energy (Secretary Watkins) ordered that all 23 of the Department's major organizations adopt systems of strategic planning. This paper explains the strategic planning process being adopted by one of those organizations, the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM). Secretary Watkins also ordered a much-abbreviated planning cycle for 1990 to produce the first set of plans in September. That first plan for OCRWM is also discussed here

Decision making in high-velocity environments: implications for healthcare.

Science.gov (United States)

Stepanovich, P L; Uhrig, J D

1999-01-01

Healthcare can be considered a high-velocity environment and, as such, can benefit from research conducted in other industries regarding strategic decision making. Strategic planning is not only relevant to firms in high-velocity environments, but is also important for high performance and survival. Specifically, decision-making speed seems to be instrumental in differentiating between high and low performers; fast decision makers outperform slow decision makers. This article outlines the differences between fast and slow decision makers, identifies five paralyses that can slow decision making in healthcare, and outlines the role of a planning department in circumventing these paralyses. Executives can use the proposed planning structure to improve both the speed and quality of strategic decisions. The structure uses planning facilitators to avoid the following five paralyses: 1. Analysis. Decision makers can no longer afford the luxury of lengthy, detailed analysis but must develop real-time systems that provide appropriate, timely information. 2. Alternatives. Many alternatives (beyond the traditional two or three) need to be considered and the alternatives must be evaluated simultaneously. 3. Group Think. Decision makers must avoid limited mind-sets and autocratic leadership styles by seeking out independent, knowledgeable counselors. 4. Process. Decision makers need to resolve conflicts through "consensus with qualification," as opposed to waiting for everyone to come on board. 5. Separation. Successful implementation requires a structured process that cuts across disciplines and levels.

Integrating climate change adaptation in energy planning and decision-making - Key challenges and opportunities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Olhoff, Anne; Olsen, Karen Holm

2011-01-01

management framework is used as the basis for identifying key challenges and opportunities to enhance the integration of climate change adaptation in energy planning and decision-making. Given its importance for raising awareness and for stimulating action by planners and decision-makers, emphasis is placed......Energy systems are significantly vulnerable to current climate variability and extreme events. As climate change becomes more pronounced, the risks and vulnerabilities will be exacerbated. To date, energy sector adaptation issues have received very limited attention. In this paper, a climate risk...... barriers to integration of climate risks and adaptive responses in energy planning and decision making. Both detailed assessments of the costs and benefits of integrating adaptation measures and rougher ‘order of magnitude’ estimates would enhance awareness raising and momentum for action....

Planning of renewables schemes: Deliberative and fair decision-making on landscape issues instead of reproachful accusations of non-cooperation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wolsink, Maarten

2007-01-01

The main issues related to successful implementation policies concern the socio-economic institutions that are conditional to planning in the energy policy domain, but also in the domain of spatial planning. Successful investments and the siting of renewable power plants eventually determine the success rate of national efforts in establishing renewable capacity. Central planning usually has several objectives and these often have a detrimental effect on the goal of renewable energy application. Current problems related to implementation decisions concerning wind power schemes are an example to those who will be faced by other renewable power plants, notably biomass. Regarding community acceptance of wind power schemes, the visual evaluation of the impact of wind power on the values of the landscape is by far the most dominant factor in explaining opposition or support. Type of landscape fully overshadows other attitudinal attributes, as well as other visual and scenic factors such as the design of wind turbines and wind farms, and the number and the size of turbines. Planning regimes and decision-making practices that really enhance the implementation processes of renewable energy require 'strong' ecological modernization. This means institutional changes that create involvement and trust of actors at the actual implementation level. Local opposition cannot be explained by the egotistical motives of local residents. When the inclination to behave according to (supposed) backyard motives is investigated, the scale to measure this phenomenon appears to indicate commitment to equity issues and fairness of decision-making. Hence, for wind power, local involvement to represent the local values of site-specific landscapes is crucial. For other renewables the source-specific features are different, but conflicts can be expected as well because the fairness of implementation decisions will be equally significant

Motivated information processing and group decision refusal

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nijstad, Bernard A.; Oltmanns, Jan

Group decision making has attracted much scientific interest, but few studies have investigated group decisions that do not get made. Based on the Motivated Information Processing in Groups model, this study analysed the effect of epistemic motivation (low vs. high) and social motivation (proself

Planning and Resource Allocation Management.

Science.gov (United States)

Coleman, Jack W.

1986-01-01

Modern scientific management techniques provide college administrators with valuable planning and resource allocation insights and enhances the decision process. The planning model should incorporate assessment, strategic planning, dynamic and long-term budgeting, operational planning, and feedback and control for actual operations. (MSE)

45 CFR 98.14 - Plan process.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Plan process. 98.14 Section 98.14 Public Welfare DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES GENERAL ADMINISTRATION CHILD CARE AND DEVELOPMENT FUND General Application Procedures § 98.14 Plan process. In the development of each Plan, as required pursuant to § 98.17...

Risk-maps informing land-use planning processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Basta, Claudia; Neuvel, Jeroen M.M.; Zlatanova, Sisi; Ale, Ben

2007-01-01

The definition of safety distances as required by Art 12 of the Seveso II Directive on dangerous substances (96/82/EC) is necessary to minimize the consequences of potential major accidents. As they affect the land-use destinations of involved areas, safety distances can be considered as risk tolerability criteria with a territorial reflection. Recent studies explored the suitability of using Geographical Information System technologies to support their elaboration and visual rendering. In particular, the elaboration of GIS 'risk-maps' has been recognized as functional to two objectives: connecting spatial planners and safety experts during decision making processes and communicating risk to non-experts audiences. In order to elaborate on these findings and to verify their reflection on European practices, the article presents the result of a comparative study between the United Kingdom and the Netherlands recent developments. Their land-use planning practices for areas falling under Seveso II requirements are explored. The role of GIS risk-maps within decisional processes is analyzed and the reflection on the transparency and accessibility of risk-information is commented. Recommendations for further developments are given

Evacuation decision-making: process and uncertainty

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mileti, D.; Sorensen, J.; Bogard, W.

1985-09-01

The purpose was to describe the processes of evacuation decision-making, identify and document uncertainties in that process and discuss implications for federal assumption of liability for precautionary evacuations at nuclear facilities under the Price-Anderson Act. Four major categories of uncertainty are identified concerning the interpretation of hazard, communication problems, perceived impacts of evacuation decisions and exogenous influences. Over 40 historical accounts are reviewed and cases of these uncertainties are documented. The major findings are that all levels of government, including federal agencies experience uncertainties in some evacuation situations. Second, private sector organizations are subject to uncertainties at a variety of decision points. Third, uncertainties documented in the historical record have provided the grounds for liability although few legal actions have ensued. Finally it is concluded that if liability for evacuations is assumed by the federal government, the concept of a ''precautionary'' evacuation is not useful in establishing criteria for that assumption. 55 refs., 1 fig., 4 tabs.

Evacuation decision-making: process and uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mileti, D.; Sorensen, J.; Bogard, W.

1985-09-01

The purpose was to describe the processes of evacuation decision-making, identify and document uncertainties in that process and discuss implications for federal assumption of liability for precautionary evacuations at nuclear facilities under the Price-Anderson Act. Four major categories of uncertainty are identified concerning the interpretation of hazard, communication problems, perceived impacts of evacuation decisions and exogenous influences. Over 40 historical accounts are reviewed and cases of these uncertainties are documented. The major findings are that all levels of government, including federal agencies experience uncertainties in some evacuation situations. Second, private sector organizations are subject to uncertainties at a variety of decision points. Third, uncertainties documented in the historical record have provided the grounds for liability although few legal actions have ensued. Finally it is concluded that if liability for evacuations is assumed by the federal government, the concept of a ''precautionary'' evacuation is not useful in establishing criteria for that assumption. 55 refs., 1 fig., 4 tabs

Accelerated decomposition techniques for large discounted Markov decision processes

Science.gov (United States)

Larach, Abdelhadi; Chafik, S.; Daoui, C.

2017-12-01

Many hierarchical techniques to solve large Markov decision processes (MDPs) are based on the partition of the state space into strongly connected components (SCCs) that can be classified into some levels. In each level, smaller problems named restricted MDPs are solved, and then these partial solutions are combined to obtain the global solution. In this paper, we first propose a novel algorithm, which is a variant of Tarjan's algorithm that simultaneously finds the SCCs and their belonging levels. Second, a new definition of the restricted MDPs is presented to ameliorate some hierarchical solutions in discounted MDPs using value iteration (VI) algorithm based on a list of state-action successors. Finally, a robotic motion-planning example and the experiment results are presented to illustrate the benefit of the proposed decomposition algorithms.

Target costing as an element of the hard coal extraction cost planning process

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Katarzyna Segeth-Boniecka

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Target costing as an element of the hard coal extraction cost planning process Striving for the efficiency of activities is of great significance in the management of hard coal extractive enterprises, which are constantly subjected to the process of restructuring. Effective cost management is an important condition of the increase in the efficiency of the researched business entities’ activity. One of the tools whose basic objective is conscious influencing cost levels is target costing. The aim of this article is to analyse the conditions of implementing target costing in the planning of hard coal extraction costs in hard coal mines in Poland. The subject area raises a topical and important problem of the scope of solutions concerning cost analysis in hard coal mines in Poland, which has not been thoroughly researched yet. To achieve the abovementioned aim, the theoretical works of the subject area have been referenced. The mine management process is difficult and requires the application of best suited and most modern tools, including those used in the planning process of hard coal extraction costs in order to support the economic efficiency of mining operations. The use of the target costing concept in the planning of hard coal mine operations aims to support the decision-making process, so as to achieve a specified level of economic efficiency of the operations carried out in a territorially designated site of hard coal extraction.

Evaluation of participatory planning: Lessons from Hungarian Natura 2000 management planning processes.

Science.gov (United States)

Kovács, Eszter; Kelemen, Eszter; Kiss, Gabriella; Kalóczkai, Ágnes; Fabók, Veronika; Mihók, Barbara; Megyesi, Boldizsár; Pataki, György; Bodorkós, Barbara; Balázs, Bálint; Bela, Györgyi; Margóczi, Katalin; Roboz, Ágnes; Molnár, Dániel

2017-12-15

Stakeholder participation in nature conservation policies and especially in the management of protected areas has gained importance in the last decades. These changes are underlined by democratic principles and the perceived contribution of stakeholder involvement to the effectiveness of conservation management. Evaluating participatory processes is essential to learn about the past and thus increase the quality of future processes. The evaluation can be useful for the organisations responsible for planning and management, stakeholders and policy makers as well. The present paper shows the results of a systematic evaluation of 25 participatory processes related to the development of management plans for Natura 2000 sites in Hungary between 2007 and 2015. A conceptual framework was developed to evaluate the process and outcome of participatory management planning processes. Criteria were based on the scientific literature on public participation and tailored to conservation-related management planning and stakeholder involvement. Evaluated processes were grouped in three cases based on their time range and financial sources. Overall, the analysed processes scored at a medium level, showing better performance in the process criteria than in the outcome criteria. The best case scored significantly higher in four criteria compared to the other cases: representativeness, resource availability for facilitation, new, creative ideas and impact on the plan. The main factors behind the success were (1) embeddedness of the planning process in a larger project, where the plan was a tool for conservation, (2) carrying out only one process at a time, (3) previous experience of facilitators and planners with participatory planning and (4) the opportunity and capacity to propose a payment scheme as an incentive. But even this case received low scores in some criteria: conflict resolution, early involvement and well defined goals. Based on the results we suggest that more data is

Louisiana's 2017 Master Plan for a Sustainable Coast

Science.gov (United States)

Haase, B.

2017-12-01

The Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority is charged with coordinating restoration and protection investments through the development and implementation of Louisiana's Comprehensive Master Plan for a Sustainable Coast. The first master plan was submitted to the Louisiana Legislature in 2007 and is mandated to be updated every five years. The plan's objectives are to reduce economic losses from flooding, promote sustainability by harnessing natural processes, provide habitats for commercial and recreational activities, sustain cultural heritage and promote a viable working coast. Two goals drive decision making about the appropriate suite of restoration and protection projects to include in the Plan: restore and maintain Louisiana's wetlands and provide flood protection for coastal Louisiana's citizens. As part of the decision making process, a wide range of additional metrics are used to evaluate the complex, competing needs of communities, industries, navigation and fisheries. The master plan decision making process includes the identification of individual protection and restoration projects that are evaluated with landscape, storm surge, and risk assessment models and then ranked by how well they perform over time across the set of decision drivers and metrics. High performing projects are assembled into alternatives constrained by available funding and river resources. The planning process is grounded not only on extensive scientific analysis but also on interdisciplinary collaboration between scientists, engineers, planners, community advocates, and coastal stakeholders which creates the long-term dialogue needed for complex environmental planning decisions. It is through this collaboration that recommended alternatives are reviewed and modified to develop the final Plan. Keywords:alternative formulation, comprehensive planning, ecosystem restoration, flood risk reduction and stakeholder engagement

A Process for Planning.

Science.gov (United States)

Gurowitz, William D.; And Others

1988-01-01

Describes how Division of Campus Life at Cornell University conducted long-range planning and the results of its 2-year effort. Explains 2 (strategic and organizational) by 3 (diagnosis, formulation, and execution) matrix providing systems view from describing and evaluating long-range planning. Presents 10-step process implemented at Cornell. (NB)

DOE's planning process for mixed low-level waste disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Case, J.T.; Letourneau, M.J.; Chu, M.S.Y.

1995-01-01

A disposal planning process was established by the Department of Energy (DOE) Mixed Low-Level Waste (MLLW) Disposal Workgroup. The process, jointly developed with the States, includes three steps: site-screening, site-evaluation, and configuration study. As a result of the screening process, 28 sites have been eliminated from further consideration for MLLW disposal and 4 sites have been assigned a lower priority for evaluation. Currently 16 sites are being evaluated by the DOE for their potential strengths and weaknesses as MLLW disposal sites. The results of the evaluation will provide a general idea of the technical capability of the 16 disposal sites; the results can also be used to identify which treated MLLW streams can be disposed on-site and which should be disposed of off-site. The information will then serve as the basis for a disposal configuration study, which includes analysis of both technical as well as non-technical issues, that will lead to the ultimate decision on MLLW disposal site locations

Complex Strategic Choices Applying Systemic Planning for Strategic Decision Making

CERN Document Server

Leleur, Steen

2012-01-01

Effective decision making requires a clear methodology, particularly in a complex world of globalisation. Institutions and companies in all disciplines and sectors are faced with increasingly multi-faceted areas of uncertainty which cannot always be effectively handled by traditional strategies. Complex Strategic Choices provides clear principles and methods which can guide and support strategic decision making to face the many current challenges. By considering ways in which planning practices can be renewed and exploring the possibilities for acquiring awareness and tools to add value to strategic decision making, Complex Strategic Choices presents a methodology which is further illustrated by a number of case studies and example applications. Dr. Techn. Steen Leleur has adapted previously established research based on feedback and input from various conferences, journals and students resulting in new material stemming from and focusing on practical application of a systemic approach. The outcome is a coher...

Feasibility of a randomized controlled trial to evaluate the impact of decision boxes on shared decision-making processes.

Science.gov (United States)

Giguere, Anik Mc; Labrecque, Michel; Légaré, France; Grad, Roland; Cauchon, Michel; Greenway, Matthew; Haynes, R Brian; Pluye, Pierre; Syed, Iqra; Banerjee, Debi; Carmichael, Pierre-Hugues; Martin, Mélanie

2015-02-25

Decision boxes (DBoxes) are two-page evidence summaries to prepare clinicians for shared decision making (SDM). We sought to assess the feasibility of a clustered Randomized Controlled Trial (RCT) to evaluate their impact. A convenience sample of clinicians (nurses, physicians and residents) from six primary healthcare clinics who received eight DBoxes and rated their interest in the topic and satisfaction. After consultations, their patients rated their involvement in decision-making processes (SDM-Q-9 instrument). We measured clinic and clinician recruitment rates, questionnaire completion rates, patient eligibility rates, and estimated the RCT needed sample size. Among the 20 family medicine clinics invited to participate in this study, four agreed to participate, giving an overall recruitment rate of 20%. Of 148 clinicians invited to the study, 93 participated (63%). Clinicians rated an interest in the topics ranging 6.4-8.2 out of 10 (with 10 highest) and a satisfaction with DBoxes of 4 or 5 out of 5 (with 5 highest) for 81% DBoxes. For the future RCT, we estimated that a sample size of 320 patients would allow detecting a 9% mean difference in the SDM-Q-9 ratings between our two arms (0.02 ICC; 0.05 significance level; 80% power). Clinicians' recruitment and questionnaire completion rates support the feasibility of the planned RCT. The level of interest of participants for the DBox topics, and their level of satisfaction with the Dboxes demonstrate the acceptability of the intervention. Processes to recruit clinics and patients should be optimized.

The features of decision making process in international companies. Are companies in control of their own decisions?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anastasia JELEVA

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The following article deals with the main causes of irrational decision making process in companies and with respective solutions to make decisions more rational and effective. With the aid of relevant literature, the ways managers, groups and leaders make decisions in reality will be clarified. Besides, the solutions to rational decisions examined through the perspective of managers, leaders and groups. Thus, the background of this article is the question “Are companies in control of their own decisions?” In addition, this paper includes relevant information about the features of decision making process, basic types of decisions, describes the most essential approach in management regarding to decision making and presents the top worst and best business decisions of all time.

Markov Decision Process Measurement Model.

Science.gov (United States)

LaMar, Michelle M

2018-03-01

Within-task actions can provide additional information on student competencies but are challenging to model. This paper explores the potential of using a cognitive model for decision making, the Markov decision process, to provide a mapping between within-task actions and latent traits of interest. Psychometric properties of the model are explored, and simulation studies report on parameter recovery within the context of a simple strategy game. The model is then applied to empirical data from an educational game. Estimates from the model are found to correlate more strongly with posttest results than a partial-credit IRT model based on outcome data alone.

Potential biological hazard of importance for HACCP plans in fresh fish processing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Baltić Milan Ž.

2009-01-01

Full Text Available The Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point (HACCP system is scientifically based and focused on problem prevention in order to assure the produced food products are safe to consume. Prerequisite programs such as GMP (Good Manufacturing Practices, GHP (Good Hygienic Practices are an essential foundation for the development and implementation of successful HACCP plans. One of the preliminary tasks in the development of HACCP plan is to conduct a hazard analysis. The process of conducting a hazard analysis involves two stages. The first is hazard identification and the second stage is the HACCP team decision which potential hazards must be addressed in the HACCP plan. By definition, the HACCP concept covers all types of potential food safety hazards: biological, chemical and physical, whether they are naturally occurring in the food, contributed by the environment or generated by a mistake in the manufacturing process. In raw fish processing, potential significant biological hazards which are reasonably likely to cause illness of humans are parasites (Trematodae, Nematodae, Cestodae, bacteria (Salmonella, E. coli, Vibrio parahemolyticus, Vibrio vulnificus, Listeria monocytogenes, Clostridium botulinum, Staphyloccocus aureus, viruses (Norwalk virus, Entero virusesi, Hepatitis A, Rotovirus and bio-toxins. Upon completion of hazard analysis, any measure(s that are used to control the hazard(s should be described.

Real-time multiparameter pulse processing with decision tables

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hull, K.; Griffin, H.

1986-01-01

Decision tables offer several advantages over other real-time multiparameter, data processing techniques. These include very high collection rates, minimum number of computer instructions, rates independent of the number of conditions applied per parameter, ease of adding or removing conditions during a session, and simplicity of implementation. Decisions table processing is important in multiparameter nuclear spectroscopy, coincidence experiments, multiparameter pulse processing (HgI 2 resolution enhancement, pulse discrimination, timing spectroscopy), and other applications can be easily implemented. (orig.)

300-FF-1 remedial action sampling and analysis plan DQO process summary report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carlson, R.A.

1997-01-01

The scope of the 300-FF-1 Operable Unit (OU) data quality objective (DQO) process includes the soil and debris from the waste sites identified in the Proposed Plan for the 300-FF-1 and 300-FF-5 Operable units and, as the DQO process evolved, refined by the 300-FF-1 Record of Decision (ROD). Exclusions are identified in Section 1.3. The 300-FF-1 waste sites are addressed throughout the DQO process as they were subdivided in the proposed plan. The waste sites are divided into areas or zones known to be above the cleanup standards, zones below the cleanup standards, and zones where the contamination level is currently unknown. The project objectives are (1) to identify the criteria by which 300-FF-1 contaminated soil and debris may be shipped to the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF), (2) to identify the criteria by which the 300-FF-1 waste sites can be demonstrated as meeting the cleanup criteria, and (3) to develop a sampling and analysis plan (SAP) that adequately allows the evaluation of soil and debris analysis against the criteria

Planning a Stigmatized Nonvisible Illness Disclosure: Applying the Disclosure Decision-Making Model

Science.gov (United States)

Choi, Soe Yoon; Venetis, Maria K.; Greene, Kathryn; Magsamen-Conrad, Kate; Checton, Maria G.; Banerjee, Smita C.

2016-01-01

This study applied the disclosure decision-making model (DD-MM) to explore how individuals plan to disclose nonvisible illness (Study 1), compared to planning to disclose personal information (Study 2). Study 1 showed that perceived stigma from the illness negatively predicted disclosure efficacy; closeness predicted anticipated response (i.e., provision of support) although it did not influence disclosure efficacy; disclosure efficacy led to reduced planning, with planning leading to scheduling. Study 2 demonstrated that when information was considered to be intimate, it negatively influenced disclosure efficacy. Unlike the model with stigma (Study 1), closeness positively predicted both anticipated response and disclosure efficacy. The rest of the hypothesized relationships showed a similar pattern to Study 1: disclosure efficacy reduced planning, which then positively influenced scheduling. Implications of understanding stages of planning for stigmatized information are discussed. PMID:27662447

Family planning decisions for parents of children with a rare genetic condition: A scoping review.

Science.gov (United States)

Gee, Melanie; Piercy, Hilary; Machaczek, Katarzyna

2017-12-01

Expansion of newborn screening programmes increases the complexity around reproductive choices, both in terms of the increased number of parents faced with making reproductive decisions from the earliest days of their affected child's life, and the number of conditions for which such decisions have to be made. We conducted a scoping review to explore: (i) reproductive decision-making among parents of children with recessive genetic conditions; and, (ii) the involvement of healthcare services in facilitating and supporting those decisions. Systematic search processes involved seven bibliographic databases, citation, and grey literature searches. From an initial total of 311 identified articles, seven met the inclusion criteria and were included in the review. The extracted data were organised around three themes: factors influencing reproductive decisions taken by parents, how those factors changed over time, and the involvement of healthcare services in supporting and facilitating reproductive decisions. Most studies focused on attitudes towards, and uptake of, pre-natal diagnosis (PND) and termination. None of the studies considered the wider range of reproductive choices facing all parents, including those of children with conditions for whom PND and termination is not available or where good health outcomes make these options less justifiable. The literature provided little insight into the role of healthcare staff in providing family planning support for these parents. There is a need to better understand the support parents need in their decision-making, and who is best placed to provide that support. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

15 CFR 923.13 - Energy facility planning process.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... facility planning process. The management program must contain a planning process for energy facilities... 15 Commerce and Foreign Trade 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Energy facility planning process. 923... affected public and private parties will be involved in the planning process. [61 FR 33806, June 28, 1996...

Use of PRA in Shuttle Decision Making Process

Science.gov (United States)

Boyer, Roger L.; Hamlin, Teri L.

2010-01-01

How do you use PRA to support an operating program? This presentation will explore how the Shuttle Program Management has used the Shuttle PRA in its decision making process. It will reveal how the PRA has evolved from a tool used to evaluate Shuttle upgrades like Electric Auxiliary Power Unit (EAPU) to a tool that supports Flight Readiness Reviews (FRR) and real-time flight decisions. Specific examples of Shuttle Program decisions that have used the Shuttle PRA as input will be provided including how it was used in the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) manifest decision. It will discuss the importance of providing management with a clear presentation of the analysis, applicable assumptions and limitations, along with estimates of the uncertainty. This presentation will show how the use of PRA by the Shuttle Program has evolved overtime and how it has been used in the decision making process providing specific examples.

Addressing strategic environmental assessment in Mexico's transition towards renewable energy : geospatial approach of collective intelligence as prospective support in the planning process

OpenAIRE

Díez Rodríguez, José J.

2017-01-01

The transition towards an environmentally sustainable society involves a substantial transformation of the configuration of the energy system, and therefore, it entails a significant shift in planning process strategy. Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA), an instrument which is strategic in nature, is recognised internationally as a systematic decision support process, aiming to ensure that environmental and possibly other sustainability aspects are considered effectively in Policy, Plan...

Funding Decisions for Newborn Screening: A Comparative Review of 22 Decision Processes in Europe

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Katharina Elisabeth Fischer

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Decision-makers need to make choices to improve public health. Population-based newborn screening (NBS is considered as one strategy to prevent adverse health outcomes and address rare disease patients’ needs. The aim of this study was to describe key characteristics of decisions for funding new NBS programmes in Europe. We analysed past decisions using a conceptual framework. It incorporates indicators that capture the steps of decision processes by health care payers. Based on an internet survey, we compared 22 decisions for which answers among two respondents were validated for each observation. The frequencies of indicators were calculated to elicit key characteristics. All decisions resulted in positive, mostly unrestricted funding. Stakeholder participation was diverse focusing on information provision or voting. Often, decisions were not fully transparent. Assessment of NBS technologies concentrated on expert opinion, literature review and rough cost estimates. Most important appraisal criteria were effectiveness (i.e., health gain from testing for the children being screened, disease severity and availability of treatments. Some common and diverging key characteristics were identified. Although no evidence of explicit healthcare rationing was found, processes may be improved in respect of transparency and scientific rigour of assessment.

Focus Groups: How Feedback from Employees Can Impact the Decision-Making Process

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jessica Jordan

2017-10-01

Full Text Available The idea for the use of focus groups as a management tool was derived from a planned assessment with student employees. The success of the student employee focus groups led the researchers to expand the use of these groups with the library staff. In the evaluation of the results, the researchers discovered that the feedback from both focus groups could be shared with administration, potentially resulting in the management team making the suggested changes in the work environment. This article addresses the process of using focus groups as assessment tools and potential change agents for managerial decision-making.

Information processing by networks of quantum decision makers

Science.gov (United States)

Yukalov, V. I.; Yukalova, E. P.; Sornette, D.

2018-02-01

We suggest a model of a multi-agent society of decision makers taking decisions being based on two criteria, one is the utility of the prospects and the other is the attractiveness of the considered prospects. The model is the generalization of quantum decision theory, developed earlier for single decision makers realizing one-step decisions, in two principal aspects. First, several decision makers are considered simultaneously, who interact with each other through information exchange. Second, a multistep procedure is treated, when the agents exchange information many times. Several decision makers exchanging information and forming their judgment, using quantum rules, form a kind of a quantum information network, where collective decisions develop in time as a result of information exchange. In addition to characterizing collective decisions that arise in human societies, such networks can describe dynamical processes occurring in artificial quantum intelligence composed of several parts or in a cluster of quantum computers. The practical usage of the theory is illustrated on the dynamic disjunction effect for which three quantitative predictions are made: (i) the probabilistic behavior of decision makers at the initial stage of the process is described; (ii) the decrease of the difference between the initial prospect probabilities and the related utility factors is proved; (iii) the existence of a common consensus after multiple exchange of information is predicted. The predicted numerical values are in very good agreement with empirical data.

Analysis of Nursing Clinical Decision Support Requests and Strategic Plan in a Large Academic Health System.

Science.gov (United States)

Whalen, Kimberly; Bavuso, Karen; Bouyer-Ferullo, Sharon; Goldsmith, Denise; Fairbanks, Amanda; Gesner, Emily; Lagor, Charles; Collins, Sarah

2016-01-01

To understand requests for nursing Clinical Decision Support (CDS) interventions at a large integrated health system undergoing vendor-based EHR implementation. In addition, to establish a process to guide both short-term implementation and long-term strategic goals to meet nursing CDS needs. We conducted an environmental scan to understand current state of nursing CDS over three months. The environmental scan consisted of a literature review and an analysis of CDS requests received from across our health system. We identified existing high priority CDS and paper-based tools used in nursing practice at our health system that guide decision-making. A total of 46 nursing CDS requests were received. Fifty-six percent (n=26) were specific to a clinical specialty; 22 percent (n=10) were focused on facilitating clinical consults in the inpatient setting. "Risk Assessments/Risk Reduction/Promotion of Healthy Habits" (n=23) was the most requested High Priority Category received for nursing CDS. A continuum of types of nursing CDS needs emerged using the Data-Information-Knowledge-Wisdom Conceptual Framework: 1) facilitating data capture, 2) meeting information needs, 3) guiding knowledge-based decision making, and 4) exposing analytics for wisdom-based clinical interpretation by the nurse. Identifying and prioritizing paper-based tools that can be modified into electronic CDS is a challenge. CDS strategy is an evolving process that relies on close collaboration and engagement with clinical sites for short-term implementation and should be incorporated into a long-term strategic plan that can be optimized and achieved overtime. The Data-Information-Knowledge-Wisdom Conceptual Framework in conjunction with the High Priority Categories established may be a useful tool to guide a strategic approach for meeting short-term nursing CDS needs and aligning with the organizational strategic plan.

Final disposal of spent nuclear fuel - regulatory system and roles of different actors during the decision process

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

2009-03-15

In November 2006 Swedish Nuclear Fuels Co. applied for a license to build a plant for encapsulation of spent nuclear fuels at Oskarshamn, Sweden. The company also have plans to apply, in 2009, for a license to construct a underground repository for spent nuclear fuels. KASAM arranged a seminar in November 2006 in order to describe and discuss the licensing rules and regulations and the roles of different parties in the decision making. Another objective of the seminar was to point out possible ambiguities in this process. Another interesting question under discussion was in what ways the basic data for the decision should be produced. The seminar covered the part of the process beginning with the application for a license and ending with the government approval/rejection of the application. Most time was spent on the legal aspects of the process

Final disposal of spent nuclear fuel - regulatory system and roles of different actors during the decision process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2009-03-01

In November 2006 Swedish Nuclear Fuels Co. applied for a license to build a plant for encapsulation of spent nuclear fuels at Oskarshamn, Sweden. The company also have plans to apply, in 2009, for a license to construct a underground repository for spent nuclear fuels. KASAM arranged a seminar in November 2006 in order to describe and discuss the licensing rules and regulations and the roles of different parties in the decision making. Another objective of the seminar was to point out possible ambiguities in this process. Another interesting question under discussion was in what ways the basic data for the decision should be produced. The seminar covered the part of the process beginning with the application for a license and ending with the government approval/rejection of the application. Most time was spent on the legal aspects of the process

SNF Project Engineering Process Improvement Plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

DESAI, S.P.

2000-01-01

This plan documents the SNF Project activities and plans to support its engineering process. It describes five SNF Project Engineering initiatives: new engineering procedures, qualification cards process; configuration management, engineering self assessments, and integrated schedule for engineering activities

Creating a process for incorporating epidemiological modelling into outbreak management decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

Akselrod, Hana; Mercon, Monica; Kirkeby Risoe, Petter; Schlegelmilch, Jeffrey; McGovern, Joanne; Bogucki, Sandy

2012-01-01

Modern computational models of infectious diseases greatly enhance our ability to understand new infectious threats and assess the effects of different interventions. The recently-released CDC Framework for Preventing Infectious Diseases calls for increased use of predictive modelling of epidemic emergence for public health preparedness. Currently, the utility of these technologies in preparedness and response to outbreaks is limited by gaps between modelling output and information requirements for incident management. The authors propose an operational structure that will facilitate integration of modelling capabilities into action planning for outbreak management, using the Incident Command System (ICS) and Synchronization Matrix framework. It is designed to be adaptable and scalable for use by state and local planners under the National Response Framework (NRF) and Emergency Support Function #8 (ESF-8). Specific epidemiological modelling requirements are described, and integrated with the core processes for public health emergency decision support. These methods can be used in checklist format to align prospective or real-time modelling output with anticipated decision points, and guide strategic situational assessments at the community level. It is anticipated that formalising these processes will facilitate translation of the CDC's policy guidance from theory to practice during public health emergencies involving infectious outbreaks.

implications of decision making process on agricultural employees

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This study was designed to determine the implications of decision making process on employees' turnover in the Institute of ... Involvement in Decision Making and Agricultural Employees' Turnover in Ibadan, Nigeria 37 ..... Lack of motivation.

Metals and Alloys Material Stabilization Process Plan

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

RISENMAY, H.R.; BURK, R.A.

2000-05-18

This Plan outlines the process for brushing metal and alloys in accordance with the path forward discussed in the Integrated Project Management Plan for the Plutonium Finishing Plant Stabilization and Deactivation Project, HNF-3617, and requirements set forth in the Project Management Plan for Materials Stabilization, HNF-3605. This plan provides the basis for selection of the location to process, the processes involved, equipment to be used, and the characterization of the contents of the can. The scope of the process is from retrieval of metals and alloys from storage to transfer back to storage in a repackaged configuration.

Metals and Alloys Material Stabilization Process Plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

RISENMAY, H.R.; BURK, R.A.

2000-01-01

This Plan outlines the process for brushing metal and alloys in accordance with the path forward discussed in the Integrated Project Management Plan for the Plutonium Finishing Plant Stabilization and Deactivation Project, HNF-3617, and requirements set forth in the Project Management Plan for Materials Stabilization, HNF-3605. This plan provides the basis for selection of the location to process, the processes involved, equipment to be used, and the characterization of the contents of the can. The scope of the process is from retrieval of metals and alloys from storage to transfer back to storage in a repackaged configuration

Evolution of quantum-like modeling in decision making processes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Khrennikova, Polina [School of Management, University of Leicester, University Road Leicester LE1 7RH (United Kingdom)

2012-12-18

The application of the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics to model behavioral patterns in social science and economics is a novel and constantly emerging field. The aim of the so called 'quantum like' models is to model the decision making processes in a macroscopic setting, capturing the particular 'context' in which the decisions are taken. Several subsequent empirical findings proved that when making a decision people tend to violate the axioms of expected utility theory and Savage's Sure Thing principle, thus violating the law of total probability. A quantum probability formula was devised to describe more accurately the decision making processes. A next step in the development of QL-modeling in decision making was the application of Schroedinger equation to describe the evolution of people's mental states. A shortcoming of Schroedinger equation is its inability to capture dynamics of an open system; the brain of the decision maker can be regarded as such, actively interacting with the external environment. Recently the master equation, by which quantum physics describes the process of decoherence as the result of interaction of the mental state with the environmental 'bath', was introduced for modeling the human decision making. The external environment and memory can be referred to as a complex 'context' influencing the final decision outcomes. The master equation can be considered as a pioneering and promising apparatus for modeling the dynamics of decision making in different contexts.

Evolution of quantum-like modeling in decision making processes

Science.gov (United States)

Khrennikova, Polina

2012-12-01

The application of the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics to model behavioral patterns in social science and economics is a novel and constantly emerging field. The aim of the so called 'quantum like' models is to model the decision making processes in a macroscopic setting, capturing the particular 'context' in which the decisions are taken. Several subsequent empirical findings proved that when making a decision people tend to violate the axioms of expected utility theory and Savage's Sure Thing principle, thus violating the law of total probability. A quantum probability formula was devised to describe more accurately the decision making processes. A next step in the development of QL-modeling in decision making was the application of Schrödinger equation to describe the evolution of people's mental states. A shortcoming of Schrödinger equation is its inability to capture dynamics of an open system; the brain of the decision maker can be regarded as such, actively interacting with the external environment. Recently the master equation, by which quantum physics describes the process of decoherence as the result of interaction of the mental state with the environmental 'bath', was introduced for modeling the human decision making. The external environment and memory can be referred to as a complex 'context' influencing the final decision outcomes. The master equation can be considered as a pioneering and promising apparatus for modeling the dynamics of decision making in different contexts.

Evolution of quantum-like modeling in decision making processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khrennikova, Polina

2012-01-01

The application of the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics to model behavioral patterns in social science and economics is a novel and constantly emerging field. The aim of the so called 'quantum like' models is to model the decision making processes in a macroscopic setting, capturing the particular 'context' in which the decisions are taken. Several subsequent empirical findings proved that when making a decision people tend to violate the axioms of expected utility theory and Savage's Sure Thing principle, thus violating the law of total probability. A quantum probability formula was devised to describe more accurately the decision making processes. A next step in the development of QL-modeling in decision making was the application of Schrödinger equation to describe the evolution of people's mental states. A shortcoming of Schrödinger equation is its inability to capture dynamics of an open system; the brain of the decision maker can be regarded as such, actively interacting with the external environment. Recently the master equation, by which quantum physics describes the process of decoherence as the result of interaction of the mental state with the environmental 'bath', was introduced for modeling the human decision making. The external environment and memory can be referred to as a complex 'context' influencing the final decision outcomes. The master equation can be considered as a pioneering and promising apparatus for modeling the dynamics of decision making in different contexts.

Fleet Planning Decision-Making: Two-Stage Optimization with Slot Purchase

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lay Eng Teoh

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Essentially, strategic fleet planning is vital for airlines to yield a higher profit margin while providing a desired service frequency to meet stochastic demand. In contrast to most studies that did not consider slot purchase which would affect the service frequency determination of airlines, this paper proposes a novel approach to solve the fleet planning problem subject to various operational constraints. A two-stage fleet planning model is formulated in which the first stage selects the individual operating route that requires slot purchase for network expansions while the second stage, in the form of probabilistic dynamic programming model, determines the quantity and type of aircraft (with the corresponding service frequency to meet the demand profitably. By analyzing an illustrative case study (with 38 international routes, the results show that the incorporation of slot purchase in fleet planning is beneficial to airlines in achieving economic and social sustainability. The developed model is practically viable for airlines not only to provide a better service quality (via a higher service frequency to meet more demand but also to obtain a higher revenue and profit margin, by making an optimal slot purchase and fleet planning decision throughout the long-term planning horizon.

Use of the self-organising map network (SOMNet) as a decision support system for regional mental health planning.

Science.gov (United States)

Chung, Younjin; Salvador-Carulla, Luis; Salinas-Pérez, José A; Uriarte-Uriarte, Jose J; Iruin-Sanz, Alvaro; García-Alonso, Carlos R

2018-04-25

Decision-making in mental health systems should be supported by the evidence-informed knowledge transfer of data. Since mental health systems are inherently complex, involving interactions between its structures, processes and outcomes, decision support systems (DSS) need to be developed using advanced computational methods and visual tools to allow full system analysis, whilst incorporating domain experts in the analysis process. In this study, we use a DSS model developed for interactive data mining and domain expert collaboration in the analysis of complex mental health systems to improve system knowledge and evidence-informed policy planning. We combine an interactive visual data mining approach, the self-organising map network (SOMNet), with an operational expert knowledge approach, expert-based collaborative analysis (EbCA), to develop a DSS model. The SOMNet was applied to the analysis of healthcare patterns and indicators of three different regional mental health systems in Spain, comprising 106 small catchment areas and providing healthcare for over 9 million inhabitants. Based on the EbCA, the domain experts in the development team guided and evaluated the analytical processes and results. Another group of 13 domain experts in mental health systems planning and research evaluated the model based on the analytical information of the SOMNet approach for processing information and discovering knowledge in a real-world context. Through the evaluation, the domain experts assessed the feasibility and technology readiness level (TRL) of the DSS model. The SOMNet, combined with the EbCA, effectively processed evidence-based information when analysing system outliers, explaining global and local patterns, and refining key performance indicators with their analytical interpretations. The evaluation results showed that the DSS model was feasible by the domain experts and reached level 7 of the TRL (system prototype demonstration in operational environment). This

Decision Making and Ratio Processing in Patients with Mild Cognitive Impairment.

Science.gov (United States)

Pertl, Marie-Theres; Benke, Thomas; Zamarian, Laura; Delazer, Margarete

2015-01-01

Making advantageous decisions is important in everyday life. This study aimed at assessing how patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) make decisions under risk. Additionally, it investigated the relationship between decision making, ratio processing, basic numerical abilities, and executive functions. Patients with MCI (n = 22) were compared with healthy controls (n = 29) on a complex task of decision making under risk (Game of Dice Task-Double, GDT-D), on two tasks evaluating basic decision making under risk, on a task of ratio processing, and on several neuropsychological background tests. Patients performed significantly lower than controls on the GDT-D and on ratio processing, whereas groups performed comparably on basic decision tasks. Specifically, in the GDT-D, patients obtained lower net scores and lower mean expected values, which indicate a less advantageous performance relative to that of controls. Performance on the GDT-D correlated significantly with performance in basic decision tasks, ratio processing, and executive-function measures when the analysis was performed on the whole sample. Patients with MCI make sub-optimal decisions in complex risk situations, whereas they perform at the same level as healthy adults in simple decision situations. Ratio processing and executive functions have an impact on the decision-making performance of both patients and healthy older adults. In order to facilitate advantageous decisions in complex everyday situations, information should be presented in an easily comprehensible form and cognitive training programs for patients with MCI should focus--among other abilities--on executive functions and ratio processing.

A meaning for transparency in decision processes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wene, C.O. [Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden). Energy System Technology; Espejo, R. [Univ. of Lincolnshire and Humberside, Lincoln (United Kingdom). Lincoln School of Management

1999-12-01

In this paper we discuss transparency in decision processes. We argue that transparency requires fostering, producing and maintaining distributed dialogues and communications between all those affected by (the stakeholders) and those producing these decisions (the decision makers and the actors/experts). The issues raised in these dialogues will not only refer to questions of technical efficiency, but also to what is right and fair and what is considered to be good in society. Social policies, particularly those of wide social significance, are in one form or another the outcome of multiple meaning creation processes, reflecting their multiple spheres of influence, from the local to the global, from the disciplinary to the multi- and transdisciplinary. Each of these processes requires transparency. This paper is focused on the structural requirements to make these dialogues and communications effective at all levels, taking into account the need for technical explanation, proof of authenticity and legitimacy of actions. Moreover it is concerned with the alignment of these meanings creation processes in order to increase the chances of having not only a distributed but also a coherent overall decision process. Our emphasis is in defining forms of interaction among stakeholders in order to ground the debate of the policy throughout the organisation, beyond senior levels of management. The aim is increasing the demands on those responsible for policy implementation, stretching them so that they offer the best of themselves. We argue that this is the basis for a structural mechanism for transparency. The outcome of this paper is a conceptual framework to study issues of transparency in policy making which is illustrated with reference to nuclear waste management in Sweden.

A meaning for transparency in decision processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wene, C.O.; Espejo, R.

1999-01-01

In this paper we discuss transparency in decision processes. We argue that transparency requires fostering, producing and maintaining distributed dialogues and communications between all those affected by (the stakeholders) and those producing these decisions (the decision makers and the actors/experts). The issues raised in these dialogues will not only refer to questions of technical efficiency, but also to what is right and fair and what is considered to be good in society. Social policies, particularly those of wide social significance, are in one form or another the outcome of multiple meaning creation processes, reflecting their multiple spheres of influence, from the local to the global, from the disciplinary to the multi- and transdisciplinary. Each of these processes requires transparency. This paper is focused on the structural requirements to make these dialogues and communications effective at all levels, taking into account the need for technical explanation, proof of authenticity and legitimacy of actions. Moreover it is concerned with the alignment of these meanings creation processes in order to increase the chances of having not only a distributed but also a coherent overall decision process. Our emphasis is in defining forms of interaction among stakeholders in order to ground the debate of the policy throughout the organisation, beyond senior levels of management. The aim is increasing the demands on those responsible for policy implementation, stretching them so that they offer the best of themselves. We argue that this is the basis for a structural mechanism for transparency. The outcome of this paper is a conceptual framework to study issues of transparency in policy making which is illustrated with reference to nuclear waste management in Sweden

A planning concept incorporating the knowledge of both planning and operations personnel

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Valenca, M M; Nepomuceno, L; Teixeira, J C.F.; Santos, Junior, A [Universidade Estadual de Campinas, SP (Brazil)

1994-12-31

In this paper, the electrical operation planning problem and the available technological possibilities for the improvement of planner`s work process are analyzed. The importance of the expert`s experience in efficient operation plans production is pointed out. The useful knowledge in planning and operating environments and their automation by Artificial Intelligence techniques are evaluated. Finally, conception of a decision-making support system allowing the interaction of storage expertise with analysis programs proposed, in order to improve the planning process. (author) 15 refs., 4 figs.

The value of decision tree analysis in planning anaesthetic care in obstetrics.

Science.gov (United States)

Bamber, J H; Evans, S A

2016-08-01

The use of decision tree analysis is discussed in the context of the anaesthetic and obstetric management of a young pregnant woman with joint hypermobility syndrome with a history of insensitivity to local anaesthesia and a previous difficult intubation due to a tongue tumour. The multidisciplinary clinical decision process resulted in the woman being delivered without complication by elective caesarean section under general anaesthesia after an awake fibreoptic intubation. The decision process used is reviewed and compared retrospectively to a decision tree analytical approach. The benefits and limitations of using decision tree analysis are reviewed and its application in obstetric anaesthesia is discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Role of Advance Care Planning in Proxy Decision Making Among Individuals With Dementia and Their Family Caregivers.

Science.gov (United States)

Kwak, Jung; De Larwelle, Jessica A; Valuch, Katharine O'Connell; Kesler, Toni

2016-01-01

Health care proxies make important end-of-life decisions for individuals with dementia. A cross-sectional survey was conducted to examine the role of advance care planning in proxy decision making for 141 individuals with cognitive impairment, Alzheimer's disease, or other types of dementia. Proxies who did not know the preferences of individuals with dementia for life support treatments reported greater understanding of their values. Proxies of individuals with dementia who did not want life support treatments anticipated receiving less support and were more uncertain in decision making. The greater knowledge proxies had about dementia trajectory, family support, and trust of physicians, the more informed, clearer, and less uncertain they were in decision making. In addition to advance care planning, multiple factors influence proxy decision making, which should be considered in developing interventions and future research to support informed decision making for individuals with dementia and their families. Copyright 2016, SLACK Incorporated.

Age differences in dual information-processing modes: implications for cancer decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Peters, Ellen; Diefenbach, Michael A; Hess, Thomas M; Västfjäll, Daniel

2008-12-15

Age differences in affective/experiential and deliberative processes have important theoretical implications for cancer decision making, as cancer is often a disease of older adulthood. The authors examined evidence for adult age differences in affective and deliberative information processes, reviewed the sparse evidence about age differences in decision making, and introduced how dual process theories and their findings might be applied to cancer decision making. Age-related declines in the efficiency of deliberative processes predict poorer-quality decisions as we age, particularly when decisions are unfamiliar and the information is numeric. However, age-related adaptive processes, including an increased focus on emotional goals and greater experience, can influence decision making and potentially offset age-related declines. A better understanding of the mechanisms that underlie cancer decision processes in our aging population should ultimately allow us to help older adults to better help themselves.

How Critical Thinking Shapes the Military Decision Making Process

Science.gov (United States)

2004-05-17

emotional rebuttal. Conversely, people cannot make good rational decisions without at least a twinge of emotion attached to the decision . 2) Our minds... decision they make . If emotions overwhelm reason, then decisions should be postponed.27 Service biases are one of the strongest emotional bias. Any...FINAL 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE How Critical Thinking Shapes the Military Decision Making Process 5a. CONTRACT

A Gaussian decision-support tool for engineering design process

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rajabali Nejad, Mohammadreza; Spitas, Christos

2013-01-01

Decision-making in design is of great importance, resulting in success or failure of a system (Liu et al., 2010; Roozenburg and Eekels, 1995; Spitas, 2011a). This paper describes a robust decision-support tool for engineering design process, which can be used throughout the design process in either

Development of an integrated model for energy systems planning and carbon dioxide mitigation under uncertainty - Tradeoffs between two-level decision makers.

Science.gov (United States)

Jin, S W; Li, Y P; Xu, L P

2018-07-01

A bi-level fuzzy programming (BFLP) method was developed for energy systems planning (ESP) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) mitigation under uncertainty. BFLP could handle fuzzy information and leader-follower problem in decision-making processes. It could also address the tradeoffs among different decision makers in two decision-making levels through prioritizing the most important goal. Then, a BFLP-ESP model was formulated for planning energy system of Beijing, in which the upper-level objective is to minimize CO 2 emission and the lower-level objective is to minimize the system cost. Results provided a range of decision alternatives that corresponded to a tradeoff between system optimality and reliability under uncertainty. Compared to the single-level model with a target to minimize system cost, the amounts of pollutant/CO 2 emissions from BFLP-ESP were reduced since the study system would prefer more clean energies (i.e. natural gas, LPG and electricity) to replace coal fuel. Decision alternatives from BFLP were more beneficial for supporting Beijing to adjust its energy mix and enact its emission-abatement policy. Results also revealed that the low-carbon policy for power plants (e.g., shutting down all coal-fired power plants) could lead to a potentially increment of imported energy for Beijing, which would increase the risk of energy shortage. The findings could help decision makers analyze the interactions between different stakeholders in ESP and provide useful information for policy design under uncertainty. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis: A Hypothetical Application to the Waas Region

Science.gov (United States)

Gilroy, Kristin; Mens, Marjolein; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Jeuken, Ad

2016-04-01

More frequent and intense hydrologic events under climate change are expected to enhance water security and flood risk management challenges worldwide. Traditional planning approaches must be adapted to address climate change and develop solutions with an appropriate level of robustness and flexibility. The Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA) method is a novel planning approach embodying a suite of complementary methods, including decision scaling and adaptation pathways. Decision scaling offers a bottom-up approach to assess risk and tailors the complexity of the analysis to the problem at hand and the available capacity. Through adaptation pathway,s an array of future strategies towards climate robustness are developed, ranging in flexibility and immediacy of investments. Flexible pathways include transfer points to other strategies to ensure that the system can be adapted if future conditions vary from those expected. CRIDA combines these two approaches in a stakeholder driven process which guides decision makers through the planning and decision process, taking into account how the confidence in the available science, the consequences in the system, and the capacity of institutions should influence strategy selection. In this presentation, we will explain the CRIDA method and compare it to existing planning processes, such as the US Army Corps of Engineers Principles and Guidelines as well as Integrated Water Resources Management Planning. Then, we will apply the approach to a hypothetical case study for the Waas Region, a large downstream river basin facing rapid development threatened by increased flood risks. Through the case study, we will demonstrate how a stakeholder driven process can be used to evaluate system robustness to climate change; develop adaptation pathways for multiple objectives and criteria; and illustrate how varying levels of confidence, consequences, and capacity would play a role in the decision making process, specifically

Retail Tactical Planning: An Aligned Process?

OpenAIRE

Dreyer , Heidi; Dukovska-Popovska , Iskra; Kiil , Kasper; Kaipia , Riikka

2016-01-01

Part 9: Quality in Production Management; International audience; This paper addresses tactical planning in retailing through a case study approach in one grocery retailing company. The issues are how tactical planning is conducted and how the different plans are connected. The study complements earlier retail planning studies by showing the sequence of planning phases and by studying the fragmented plans as a process. The master category planning is important and sets borders for the other p...

23 CFR 450.208 - Coordination of planning process activities.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... process. (h) The statewide transportation planning process should be consistent with the Strategic Highway... 23 Highways 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Coordination of planning process activities. 450.208... Coordination of planning process activities. (a) In carrying out the statewide transportation planning process...

Integrating strategic environmental assessment with industry planning: a case study of the Pasquai-Porcupine forest management plan, Saskatchewan, Canada.

Science.gov (United States)

Noble, Bram F

2004-03-01

Strategic environmental assessment (SEA) is gaining widespread recognition as a tool for integrating environmental considerations in policy, plan, and program development and decision-making. Notwithstanding the potential of SEA to improve higher-order decision processes, there has been very little attention given to integrating SEA with industry planning practices. As a result, the benefits of SEA have yet to be fully realized among industrial proponents. That said, SEA practice is ongoing, albeit informally and often under a different label, and is proving to be a valuable tool for industry planning and decision-making. Based on a case study of the Pasquai-Porcupine forest management plan in Saskatchewan, Canada, this paper illustrates how an integrated approach to SEA can contribute to industry environmental decision-making and can enhance the quality and deliverability of industry plans.

Age Differences in Dual Information-Processing Modes: Implications for Cancer Decision Making

Science.gov (United States)

Peters, Ellen; Diefenbach, Michael A.; Hess, Thomas M.; Västfjäll, Daniel

2008-01-01

Age differences in affective/experiential and deliberative processes have important theoretical implications for cancer decision making as cancer is often a disease of older adulthood. We examine evidence for adult age differences in affective and deliberative information processes, review the sparse evidence about age differences in decision making and introduce how dual process theories and their findings might be applied to cancer decision making. Age-related declines in the efficiency of deliberative processes predict poorer-quality decisions as we age, particularly when decisions are unfamiliar and the information is numeric. However, age-related adaptive processes, including an increased focus on emotional goals and greater experience, can influence decision making and potentially offset age-related declines. A better understanding of the mechanisms that underlie cancer decision processes in our aging population should ultimately allow us to help older adults to better help themselves. PMID:19058148

Rule-based decision making model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sirola, Miki

1998-01-01

A rule-based decision making model is designed in G2 environment. A theoretical and methodological frame for the model is composed and motivated. The rule-based decision making model is based on object-oriented modelling, knowledge engineering and decision theory. The idea of safety objective tree is utilized. Advanced rule-based methodologies are applied. A general decision making model 'decision element' is constructed. The strategy planning of the decision element is based on e.g. value theory and utility theory. A hypothetical process model is built to give input data for the decision element. The basic principle of the object model in decision making is division in tasks. Probability models are used in characterizing component availabilities. Bayes' theorem is used to recalculate the probability figures when new information is got. The model includes simple learning features to save the solution path. A decision analytic interpretation is given to the decision making process. (author)

MO-B-BRB-00: Optimizing the Treatment Planning Process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2015-01-01

The radiotherapy treatment planning process has evolved over the years with innovations in treatment planning, treatment delivery and imaging systems. Treatment modality and simulation technologies are also rapidly improving and affecting the planning process. For example, Image-guided-radiation-therapy has been widely adopted for patient setup, leading to margin reduction and isocenter repositioning after simulation. Stereotactic Body radiation therapy (SBRT) and Radiosurgery (SRS) have gradually become the standard of care for many treatment sites, which demand a higher throughput for the treatment plans even if the number of treatments per day remains the same. Finally, simulation, planning and treatment are traditionally sequential events. However, with emerging adaptive radiotherapy, they are becoming more tightly intertwined, leading to iterative processes. Enhanced efficiency of planning is therefore becoming more critical and poses serious challenge to the treatment planning process; Lean Six Sigma approaches are being utilized increasingly to balance the competing needs for speed and quality. In this symposium we will discuss the treatment planning process and illustrate effective techniques for managing workflow. Topics will include: Planning techniques: (a) beam placement, (b) dose optimization, (c) plan evaluation (d) export to RVS. Planning workflow: (a) import images, (b) Image fusion, (c) contouring, (d) plan approval (e) plan check (f) chart check, (g) sequential and iterative process Influence of upstream and downstream operations: (a) simulation, (b) immobilization, (c) motion management, (d) QA, (e) IGRT, (f) Treatment delivery, (g) SBRT/SRS (h) adaptive planning Reduction of delay between planning steps with Lean systems due to (a) communication, (b) limited resource, (b) contour, (c) plan approval, (d) treatment. Optimizing planning processes: (a) contour validation (b) consistent planning protocol, (c) protocol/template sharing, (d) semi

MO-B-BRB-00: Optimizing the Treatment Planning Process

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2015-06-15

The radiotherapy treatment planning process has evolved over the years with innovations in treatment planning, treatment delivery and imaging systems. Treatment modality and simulation technologies are also rapidly improving and affecting the planning process. For example, Image-guided-radiation-therapy has been widely adopted for patient setup, leading to margin reduction and isocenter repositioning after simulation. Stereotactic Body radiation therapy (SBRT) and Radiosurgery (SRS) have gradually become the standard of care for many treatment sites, which demand a higher throughput for the treatment plans even if the number of treatments per day remains the same. Finally, simulation, planning and treatment are traditionally sequential events. However, with emerging adaptive radiotherapy, they are becoming more tightly intertwined, leading to iterative processes. Enhanced efficiency of planning is therefore becoming more critical and poses serious challenge to the treatment planning process; Lean Six Sigma approaches are being utilized increasingly to balance the competing needs for speed and quality. In this symposium we will discuss the treatment planning process and illustrate effective techniques for managing workflow. Topics will include: Planning techniques: (a) beam placement, (b) dose optimization, (c) plan evaluation (d) export to RVS. Planning workflow: (a) import images, (b) Image fusion, (c) contouring, (d) plan approval (e) plan check (f) chart check, (g) sequential and iterative process Influence of upstream and downstream operations: (a) simulation, (b) immobilization, (c) motion management, (d) QA, (e) IGRT, (f) Treatment delivery, (g) SBRT/SRS (h) adaptive planning Reduction of delay between planning steps with Lean systems due to (a) communication, (b) limited resource, (b) contour, (c) plan approval, (d) treatment. Optimizing planning processes: (a) contour validation (b) consistent planning protocol, (c) protocol/template sharing, (d) semi

Risk-maps informing land-use planning processes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Basta, Claudia [DIRC Sustainable Urban Areas, Section of Material Science and Sustainable Construction, Delft University of Technology, Stevinweg 1, 2600 GA, Delft (Netherlands)]. E-mail: c.basta@citg.tudelft.nl; Neuvel, Jeroen M.M. [Land Use Planning, Wageningen University, Droevendaalsesteeg 3, Postbus 47, 6700 AA Wageningen (Netherlands)]. E-mail: jeroen.neuvel@wur.nl; Zlatanova, Sisi [Section GISt, OTB Research Institute for Housing, Urban and Mobility Studies, Delft University of Technology, Jaffalaan 9, P.O. Box 5030, 2600 GA, Delft (Netherlands)]. E-mail: s.zlatanova@otb.tudelft.nl; Ale, Ben [Safety Science Group, TBM Faculty, Delft University of Technology, Jaffalaan 5, 2600 GA, Delft (Netherlands)

2007-06-25

The definition of safety distances as required by Art 12 of the Seveso II Directive on dangerous substances (96/82/EC) is necessary to minimize the consequences of potential major accidents. As they affect the land-use destinations of involved areas, safety distances can be considered as risk tolerability criteria with a territorial reflection. Recent studies explored the suitability of using Geographical Information System technologies to support their elaboration and visual rendering. In particular, the elaboration of GIS 'risk-maps' has been recognized as functional to two objectives: connecting spatial planners and safety experts during decision making processes and communicating risk to non-experts audiences. In order to elaborate on these findings and to verify their reflection on European practices, the article presents the result of a comparative study between the United Kingdom and the Netherlands recent developments. Their land-use planning practices for areas falling under Seveso II requirements are explored. The role of GIS risk-maps within decisional processes is analyzed and the reflection on the transparency and accessibility of risk-information is commented. Recommendations for further developments are given.

Decision-making for tracheostomy in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS): a retrospective study.

Science.gov (United States)

Ceriana, Piero; Surbone, Sara; Segagni, Daniele; Schreiber, Annia; Carlucci, Annalisa

2017-11-01

ALS patients should discuss the issue of tracheostomy before the onset of terminal respiratory failure. While the process of shared decision-making is desirable, there are few data on the practical application of this real-life situation. To determine how a decision-making process is actually carried out, we analysed the episodes of acute respiratory failure preceding tracheostomy. We studied the charts of a group of ALS patients after tracheostomy. An interview focusing on the existence of anticipated directives was carried out. Tracheostomies were classified as planned or unplanned according to the presence of a decision plan. A total of 209 ALS patients were cared for during a three-year period. Of these patients, 34 (16%) were tracheotomised. In 38% of cases, tracheostomy was planned, 41% were unplanned, and 21% remained undiagnosed. A minority of ALS patients make a voluntary decision for tracheostomy before the procedure is conducted. The advising process of care still presents limits that have been thus far poorly addressed. In the future, we will need to develop guidelines for the timing and content of the shared-decision making process.

Markov Decision Processes in Practice

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Boucherie, Richardus J.; van Dijk, N.M.

2017-01-01

It is over 30 years ago since D.J. White started his series of surveys on practical applications of Markov decision processes (MDP), over 20 years after the phenomenal book by Martin Puterman on the theory of MDP, and over 10 years since Eugene A. Feinberg and Adam Shwartz published their Handbook

Evaluating community investments in the mining sector using multi-criteria decision analysis to integrate SIA with business planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Esteves, A.M.

2008-01-01

Gaining senior management's commitment to long-term social development projects, which are characterised by uncertainty and complexity, is made easier if projects are shown to benefit the site's strategic goals. However, even though the business case for community investment may have been accepted at a general level, as a strategy for competitive differentiation, risk mitigation and a desire to deliver - and to be seen to deliver - a 'net benefit' to affected communities, mining operations are still faced with implementation challenges. Case study research on mining companies, including interviews with social investment decision-makers, has assisted in developing the Social Investment Decision Analysis Tool (SIDAT), a decision model for evaluating social projects in order to create value for both the company and the community. Multi-criteria decision analysis techniques integrating business planning processes with social impact assessment have proved useful in assisting mining companies think beyond the traditional drivers (i.e. seeking access to required lands and peaceful relations with neighbours), to broader issues of how they can meet their business goals and contribute to sustainable development in the regions in which they operate

Risk-Based Decision Making for Deterioration Processes Using POMDP

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Jannie Sønderkær; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

2015-01-01

This paper proposes a method for risk-based decision making for maintenance of deteriorating components, based on the partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP). Unlike most methods, the decision polices do not need to be stationary and can vary according to seasons and near the end...

Dissociable neural processes underlying risky decisions for self versus other

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daehyun eJung

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Previous neuroimaging studies on decision making have mainly focused on decisions on behalf of oneself. Considering that people often make decisions on behalf of others, it is intriguing that there is little neurobiological evidence on how decisions for others differ from those for self. Thus, the present study focused on the direct comparison between risky decisions for self and those for other using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI. Participants (N = 23 were asked to perform a gambling task for themselves (decision-for-self condition or for another person (decision-for-other condition while in the scanner. Their task was to choose between a low-risk option (i.e., win or lose 10 points and a high-risk option (i.e., win or lose 90 points. The winning probabilities of each option varied from 17% to 83%. Compared to choices for others, choices for self were more risk-averse at lower winning probability and more risk-seeking at higher winning probability, perhaps due to stronger affective process during risky decision for self compared to other. The brain activation pattern changed according to the target of the decision, such that reward-related regions were more active in the decision-for-self condition than in the decision-for-other condition, whereas brain regions related to the theory of mind (ToM showed greater activation in the decision-for-other condition than in the decision-for-self condition. A parametric modulation analysis reflecting each individual’s decision model revealed that activation of the amygdala and the dorsomedial prefrontal cortex (DMPFC were associated with value computation for self and for other, respectively, during a risky financial decision. The present study suggests that decisions for self and other may recruit fundamentally distinctive neural processes, which can be mainly characterized by dominant affective/impulsive and cognitive/regulatory processes, respectively.

Final disposal of spent nuclear fuels - regulations and the roles of different stakeholders during the decision making process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2007-05-01

In November 2006 Swedish Nuclear Fuels Co. applied for a license to build a plant for encapsulation of spent nuclear fuels at Oskarshamn, Sweden. The company also have plans to apply, in 2009, for a license to construct a underground repository for spent nuclear fuels. KASAM arranged a seminar in November 2006 in order to describe and discuss the licensing rules and regulations and the roles of different parties in the decision making. Another objective of the seminar was to point out possible ambiguities in this process. Another interesting question under discussion was in what ways the basic data for the decision should be produced. The seminar covered the part of the process beginning with the application for a license and ending with the government approval/rejection of the application. Most time was spent on the legal aspects of the process

New model of enterprises resource planning implementation planning process in manufacturing enterprises

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mirjana Misita

2016-05-01

Full Text Available This article presents new model of enterprises resource planning implementation planning process in manufacturing enterprises based on assessment of risk sources. This assessment was performed by applying analytic hierarchy process. Analytic hierarchy process method allows variation of relative importance of specific risk sources dependent on the section from which the risk source originates (organizational environment, technical issues, people issues, adoption process management, and external support. Survey was conducted on 85 manufacturing enterprises involved with an enterprises resource planning solution. Ranking of risk sources assessments returns most frequent risks of enterprises resource planning implementation success in manufacturing enterprises, and representative factors were isolated through factor analysis by risk source origin. Finally, results indicate that there are hidden causes of failed implementation, for example, risk source “top management training and education,” from risk origin “adoption process management.”

The use of condition monitoring information for maintenance planning and decision-making

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Laakso, K.; Rosqvist, T. [VTT Industrial Systems (Finland); Paulsen, J.L. [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark)

2002-12-01

A survey is presented outlining the use of condition monitoring information in three Nordic nuclear power plants. The questions of the survey relate to the role of condition monitoring in strategic, as well as operative, maintenance planning and decision-making. The survey indicates that condition monitoring is increasingly implemented at nuclear power plants, but very selectively and in a rather slow pace for predictive maintenance. A combined strategy of condition based maintenance and predetermined preventive maintenance is applied for important equipment such as main circulation pumps and steam turbines. A realistic aim is to reduce the number of costly or error prone maintenance and disassembling inspection activities by condition monitoring given that the approach enables a good diagnosis and prediction. Systematic follow-up and analysis of such condition monitoring information followed by a case-specific planning and decision making of timely and rightly directed maintenance actions can justify an extension of the intervals of a number of predetermined inspection, maintenance or periodic testing tasks. (au)

Identifying Opportunities for Decision Support Systems in Support of Regional Resource Use Planning: An Approach Through Soft Systems Methodology.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu; Dale

2000-10-01

/ Regional resource use planning relies on key regional stakeholder groups using and having equitable access to appropriate social, economic, and environmental information and assessment tools. Decision support systems (DSS) can improve stakeholder access to such information and analysis tools. Regional resource use planning, however, is a complex process involving multiple issues, multiple assessment criteria, multiple stakeholders, and multiple values. There is a need for an approach to DSS development that can assist in understanding and modeling complex problem situations in regional resource use so that areas where DSSs could provide effective support can be identified, and the user requirements can be well established. This paper presents an approach based on the soft systems methodology for identifying DSS opportunities for regional resource use planning, taking the Central Highlands Region of Queensland, Australia, as a case study.

Climate Action Planning Process | Climate Neutral Research Campuses | NREL

Science.gov (United States)

Action Planning Process Climate Action Planning Process For research campuses, NREL has developed a five-step process to develop and implement climate action plans: Determine baseline energy consumption Analyze technology options Prepare a plan and set priorities Implement the climate action plan Measure and

Planning versus action: Different decision-making processes predict plans to change one's diet versus actual dietary behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Kiviniemi, Marc T; Brown-Kramer, Carolyn R

2015-05-01

Most health decision-making models posit that deciding to engage in a health behavior involves forming a behavioral intention which then leads to actual behavior. However, behavioral intentions and actual behavior may not be functionally equivalent. Two studies examined whether decision-making factors predicting dietary behaviors were the same as or distinct from those predicting intentions. Actual dietary behavior was proximally predicted by affective associations with the behavior. By contrast, behavioral intentions were predicted by cognitive beliefs about behaviors, with no contribution of affective associations. This dissociation has implications for understanding individual regulation of health behaviors and for behavior change interventions. © The Author(s) 2015.

Exploring the relationship between planning and procurement in Western U.S. electric utilities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carvallo Bodelon, Juan Pablo [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Energy Analysis and Environmental Impacts Division; Sanstad, Alan H. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Energy Analysis and Environmental Impacts Division; Larsen, Peter H. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Energy Analysis and Environmental Impacts Division

2017-06-01

Integrated resource planning (IRP) is an important regulatory process used in many U.S. states to formulate and evaluate least-cost and risk-assessed portfolios to meet future load requirements for electric utilities. In principle, effective implementation of IRP seeks to assure regulators and the public that utility investment decisions, given uncertainty, are as cost-effective as possible. However, to date, there is no empirical assessment on the effectiveness of IRP implementation. In this analysis, we compare planning, procurement processes and actual decisions for a sample of twelve load serving entities (LSEs) across the Western U. S. from 2003-2014. The 2008/2009 recession provides a unique “stress test” to the planning process and offers an excellent opportunity to trace how procurement decisions responded to this largely unforeseen event. In aggregate, there is a general alignment between planned and procured supply-side capacity. However, there are significant differences in the choice of supply-side resources and type of ownership for individual LSEs. We develop case studies for three LSEs and find that subsequent plans differ significantly due to changes in the planning environment and that procurement decisions in some cases are impacted by factors that are not accounted for in the planning process. Our results reveal that a limited amount of information produced during the long-term planning process (e.g., forecasts, methods, and least cost/risk portfolios) are ultimately used during the procurement process, and that the latter process relies extensively on the most recent information available for decision making. These findings suggest that states' IRP rules and regulations mandating long-term planning horizons with the same analytical complexity throughout the planning period may not create useful information for the procurement process. The social value of a long-term planning process that departs from procurement and the balance between

The influence of interdisciplinary collaboration on decision making: a framework to analyse stakeholder coalitions, evolution and learning in strategic delta planning

Science.gov (United States)

Vermoolen, Myrthe; Hermans, Leon

2015-04-01

The sustained development of urbanizing deltas requires that conflicting interests are reconciled, in an environment characterized by technical complexity and knowledge limitations. However, integrating ideas and establishing cooperation between actors with different backgrounds and roles still proves a challenge. Agreeing on strategic choices is difficult and implementation of agreed plans may lead to unanticipated and unintended outcomes. How can individual disciplinary perspectives come together and establish a broadly-supported and well-informed plan, the implementation of which contributes to sustainable delta development? The growing recognition of this need to bring together different stakeholders and different disciplinary perspectives runs parallel to a paradigm shift from 'hard' hydrological engineering to multi-functional and more 'soft' hydrological engineering in water management. As a result, there is now more attention for interdisciplinary collaboration that not only takes the physical characteristics of water systems into account, but also the interaction between physical and societal components of these systems. Thus, it is important to study interdisciplinary collaboration and how this influences decision-making. Our research looks into this connection, using a case in delta planning in the Netherlands, where there have been several (attempts for) integration of spatial planning and flood risk/ water management, e.g. in the case of the Dutch Delta Programme. This means that spatial designers and their designs play an important role in the strategic delta planning process as well, next to civil engineers, etc. This study explores the roles of stakeholders, experts and policy makers in interdisciplinary decision-making in dynamic delta planning processes, using theories and methods that focus on coalitions, learning and changes over time in policy and planning processes. This requires an expansion of the existing frameworks to study

Dissociable Neural Processes Underlying Risky Decisions for Self Versus Other

Science.gov (United States)

Jung, Daehyun; Sul, Sunhae; Kim, Hackjin

2013-01-01

Previous neuroimaging studies on decision making have mainly focused on decisions on behalf of oneself. Considering that people often make decisions on behalf of others, it is intriguing that there is little neurobiological evidence on how decisions for others differ from those for oneself. The present study directly compared risky decisions for self with those for another person using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Participants were asked to perform a gambling task on behalf of themselves (decision-for-self condition) or another person (decision-for-other condition) while in the scanner. Their task was to choose between a low-risk option (i.e., win or lose 10 points) and a high-risk option (i.e., win or lose 90 points) with variable levels of winning probability. Compared with choices regarding others, those regarding oneself were more risk-averse at lower winning probabilities and more risk-seeking at higher winning probabilities, perhaps due to stronger affective process during risky decisions for oneself compared with those for other. The brain-activation pattern changed according to the target, such that reward-related regions were more active in the decision-for-self condition than in the decision-for-other condition, whereas brain regions related to the theory of mind (ToM) showed greater activation in the decision-for-other condition than in the decision-for-self condition. Parametric modulation analysis using individual decision models revealed that activation of the amygdala and the dorsomedial prefrontal cortex (DMPFC) were associated with value computations for oneself and for another, respectively, during risky financial decisions. The results of the present study suggest that decisions for oneself and for other may recruit fundamentally distinct neural processes, which can be mainly characterized as dominant affective/impulsive and cognitive/regulatory processes, respectively. PMID:23519016

Structuring Disaster Recovery Infrastructure Decisions: Lessons from Boulder County's 2013 Flood Recovery

Science.gov (United States)

Clavin, C.; Petropoulos, Z.

2017-12-01

Recovery phase decision making processes, as compared to mitigation and response phase decision making processes, require communities make significant financial and capital decisions in the months after a disaster. Collectively, these investments may significantly contribute to the resilience of a community to future hazards. Pre-disaster administrative decisions are well-established within existing planning processes. Post-event recovery requires community decision makers to quickly evaluate technical proposals and manage significant recovery financial resources to ensure their community rebuilds in a manner that will be more resilient to future events. These technical and administrative hurdles in the aftermath of a disaster create a challenging atmosphere to make sound, scientifically-informed decisions leading to resilient recovery. In September 2013, a 1,000-year rain event that resulted in flooding throughout the Front Range of Colorado, significantly impacting Boulder County. While the event is long past, disaster recovery efforts still continue in parts of Boulder County. Boulder County officials formed a county collaborative that adapted the NIST Community Resilience Planning Guide for Buildings and Infrastructure Systems to facilitate a goals-based multi-criteria decision making process. Rather than use hazard-based information to guide infrastructure design, the county's decision process established time-to-recovery goals for infrastructure systems that were used as criteria for project design. This presentation explores the decision-making process employed by Boulder County to specify design standards for resilient rebuilding of infrastructure systems and examine how this infrastructure planning model could be extrapolated to other situations where there is uncertainty regarding future infrastructure design standards.

A state-of-the-art review of transportation systems evaluation techniques relevant to air transportation, volume 1. [urban planning and urban transportation using decision theory

Science.gov (United States)

Haefner, L. E.

1975-01-01

Mathematical and philosophical approaches are presented for evaluation and implementation of ground and air transportation systems. Basic decision processes are examined that are used for cost analyses and planning (i.e, statistical decision theory, linear and dynamic programming, optimization, game theory). The effects on the environment and the community that a transportation system may have are discussed and modelled. Algorithmic structures are examined and selected bibliographic annotations are included. Transportation dynamic models were developed. Citizen participation in transportation projects (i.e, in Maryland and Massachusetts) is discussed. The relevance of the modelling and evaluation approaches to air transportation (i.e, airport planning) is examined in a case study in St. Louis, Missouri.

Supporting risk-informed decisions during business process execution

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Conforti, R.; Leoni, de M.; La Rosa, M.; Aalst, van der W.M.P.; Salinesi, C.; Norrie, M.C.; Pastor, O.

2013-01-01

This paper proposes a technique that supports process participants in making risk-informed decisions, with the aim to reduce the process risks. Risk reduction involves decreasing the likelihood and severity of a process fault from occurring. Given a process exposed to risks, e.g. a financial process

Societal rationality; towards an understanding of decision making processes in society

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wahlstroem, Bjoern

2001-01-01

In a search for new ways to structure decision making on complex and controversial issues it is necessary to build an understanding of why traditional decision making processes break down. One reason is connected to the issues themselves. They represent steps into the unknown and decisions should therefore be made with prudence. A second reason is connected to a track record according to which new technologies are seen as generating more problems than solutions. A third and more fundamental reason is connected to the decision making processes themselves and a need to find better ways to approach difficult questions in the society. One way to approach societal decision making processes is to investigate their hidden rationality in an attempt to understand causes of observed difficulties. The paper is based mainly on observations from the nuclear industry, but it builds also on controversies experienced in attempts to agree on global efforts towards sustainable approaches to development. It builds on an earlier paper, which discussed the basis of rationality both on an individual and a societal level. Research in societal decision making has to rely on a true multi-disciplinary approach. It is nor enough to understand the technical and scientific models by which outcomes are predicted, but it is also necessary to understand how people make sense of their environment and how they co-operate. Rationality is in this connection one of the key concepts, with an understanding that people always are rational in their own frame of action. The challenge in this connection is to understand how this subjective rationality is formed. Societal rationality has to do with the allocation of resources. There are decisions in which several conflicting views have to be considered. Spending time and resources ex ante may support a consensus ex post, but unfortunately there is no panacea for approaching difficult decisions. Decisions with an uncertain future have to be more robust than

Societal rationality; towards an understanding of decision making processes in society

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wahlstroem, Bjoern [Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo (Finland)

2001-07-01

In a search for new ways to structure decision making on complex and controversial issues it is necessary to build an understanding of why traditional decision making processes break down. One reason is connected to the issues themselves. They represent steps into the unknown and decisions should therefore be made with prudence. A second reason is connected to a track record according to which new technologies are seen as generating more problems than solutions. A third and more fundamental reason is connected to the decision making processes themselves and a need to find better ways to approach difficult questions in the society. One way to approach societal decision making processes is to investigate their hidden rationality in an attempt to understand causes of observed difficulties. The paper is based mainly on observations from the nuclear industry, but it builds also on controversies experienced in attempts to agree on global efforts towards sustainable approaches to development. It builds on an earlier paper, which discussed the basis of rationality both on an individual and a societal level. Research in societal decision making has to rely on a true multi-disciplinary approach. It is nor enough to understand the technical and scientific models by which outcomes are predicted, but it is also necessary to understand how people make sense of their environment and how they co-operate. Rationality is in this connection one of the key concepts, with an understanding that people always are rational in their own frame of action. The challenge in this connection is to understand how this subjective rationality is formed. Societal rationality has to do with the allocation of resources. There are decisions in which several conflicting views have to be considered. Spending time and resources ex ante may support a consensus ex post, but unfortunately there is no panacea for approaching difficult decisions. Decisions with an uncertain future have to be more robust than

SNF project engineering process improvement plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

DESAI, S.P.

1999-01-01

This Engineering Process Improvement Plan documents the activities and plans to be taken by the SNF Project to support its engineering process and to produce a consolidated set of engineering procedures that are fully compliant with the requirements of HNF-PRO-1819. All new procedures will be issued and implemented by September 30, 1999

The insertion of environmental impact assessment in the planning process of electrical energy transmission systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pires, S.H.

1994-03-01

The main objective of this work is to identify and propose adequate methodologies in each stage of the planning process of electrical energy transmission systems. The aim is to incorporate the environmental dimension as a variable of this process, along with the economic and technical aspects. All these factors are to be taken into consideration in the decision-making, design and management of these projects. The environmental impact assessment (EIA) concepts, methods and procedures were analysed, as well as the roles that it should play, as a means to become the effective instrument of the Environmental Policy. In this study we analysed the whole planning process of the implementation of transmission lines and their impact on the environment. The current attitudes about this subject were investigated and scrutinized. Critical evaluations were made to suggest an orientation in the formulation of the proposed methodology. (author). 125 refs, 11 figs, 13 tabs

Decision theory, motor planning, and visual memory: deciding where to reach when memory errors are costly.

Science.gov (United States)

Lerch, Rachel A; Sims, Chris R

2016-06-01

Limitations in visual working memory (VWM) have been extensively studied in psychophysical tasks, but not well understood in terms of how these memory limits translate to performance in more natural domains. For example, in reaching to grasp an object based on a spatial memory representation, overshooting the intended target may be more costly than undershooting, such as when reaching for a cup of hot coffee. The current body of literature lacks a detailed account of how the costs or consequences of memory error influence what we encode in visual memory and how we act on the basis of remembered information. Here, we study how externally imposed monetary costs influence behavior in a motor decision task that involves reach planning based on recalled information from VWM. We approach this from a decision theoretic perspective, viewing decisions of where to aim in relation to the utility of their outcomes given the uncertainty of memory representations. Our results indicate that subjects accounted for the uncertainty in their visual memory, showing a significant difference in their reach planning when monetary costs were imposed for memory errors. However, our findings indicate that subjects memory representations per se were not biased by the imposed costs, but rather subjects adopted a near-optimal post-mnemonic decision strategy in their motor planning.

Planning ahead: Improving escalation plans before the weekend.

Science.gov (United States)

Zarkali, Angeliki; Black, Duncan; Smee, Elizabeth; Deshraj, Anshul; Smallwood, Nicholas

2014-01-01

Handover is the system by which responsibility for patient care is transferred between healthcare professionals. A significant aspect of handover is the existence of an escalation plan for each patient in case of deterioration over the weekend. According to the Royal College of Physicians, all patients should have a clear escalation plan documented in the notes before a weekend, since parent medical teams (Consultant team in charge of care) are best placed to make these decisions. If left to on-call teams, at a time of deterioration over a weekend, they might not have all available information, the patient might be unable to be involved in the decisions, and the family might not be consulted. With this is mind, we decided to analyse the existing handover process in a medium sized district general hospital, with the aim of improving the process and the documentation of escalation plans. The results from our retrospective analysis of the system in place revealed a significant lack of documentation of escalation plans in the medical notes. Three sample wards were selected to analyse the current handover system and test proposed measures before hospital-wide implementation. After trialling of a physical handover meeting in addition to the existing intranet system and a proforma for the Friday ward round, the documentation of escalation plans in the patients' notes improved from 9.1% to 41.1%. Based on these results, as well as formal feedback from junior doctors and informal feedback from other staff, the physical handover meeting and Friday ward round proforma will be implemented throughout the Trust. Our interventions led to an improvement in the documentation of escalation plans in our hospital, thus saving precious time in the event of a patient's deterioration. This also ensures that families and patients are involved in the decision making process and kept informed, and reduces the burden for the weekend on-call teams.

SNF project engineering process improvement plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

KELMENSON, R.L.

1999-01-01