WorldWideScience

Sample records for decadal time scale

  1. Continent-scale global change attribution in European birds - combining annual and decadal time scales

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Peter Søgaard; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin; Thorup, Kasper

    2016-01-01

    foundation for attributing species responses to global change may be achieved by complementing an attributes-based approach by one estimating the relationship between repeated measures of organismal and environmental changes over short time scales. To assess the benefit of this multiscale perspective, we...... on or in the peak of the breeding season with the largest effect sizes observed in cooler parts of species' climatic ranges. Our results document the potential of combining time scales and integrating both species attributes and environmental variables for global change attribution. We suggest such an approach......Species attributes are commonly used to infer impacts of environmental change on multiyear species trends, e.g. decadal changes in population size. However, by themselves attributes are of limited value in global change attribution since they do not measure the changing environment. A broader...

  2. Modeling Climate Responses to Spectral Solar Forcing on Centennial and Decadal Time Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, G.; Cahalan, R.; Rind, D.; Jonas, J.; Pilewskie, P.; Harder, J.

    2012-01-01

    We report a series of experiments to explore clima responses to two types of solar spectral forcing on decadal and centennial time scales - one based on prior reconstructions, and another implied by recent observations from the SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment) SIM (Spectral 1rradiance Monitor). We apply these forcings to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Global/Middle Atmosphere Model (GCMAM). that couples atmosphere with ocean, and has a model top near the mesopause, allowing us to examine the full response to the two solar forcing scenarios. We show different climate responses to the two solar forCing scenarios on decadal time scales and also trends on centennial time scales. Differences between solar maximum and solar minimum conditions are highlighted, including impacts of the time lagged reSponse of the lower atmosphere and ocean. This contrasts with studies that assume separate equilibrium conditions at solar maximum and minimum. We discuss model feedback mechanisms involved in the solar forced climate variations.

  3. Relationship between the Arctic oscillation and surface air temperature in multi-decadal time-scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanaka, Hiroshi L.; Tamura, Mina

    2016-09-01

    In this study, a simple energy balance model (EBM) was integrated in time, considering a hypothetical long-term variability in ice-albedo feedback mimicking the observed multi-decadal temperature variability. A natural variability was superimposed on a linear warming trend due to the increasing radiative forcing of CO2. The result demonstrates that the superposition of the natural variability and the background linear trend can offset with each other to show the warming hiatus for some period. It is also stressed that the rapid warming during 1970-2000 can be explained by the superposition of the natural variability and the background linear trend at least within the simple model. The key process of the fluctuating planetary albedo in multi-decadal time scale is investigated using the JRA-55 reanalysis data. It is found that the planetary albedo increased for 1958-1970, decreased for 1970-2000, and increased for 2000-2012, as expected by the simple EBM experiments. The multi-decadal variability in the planetary albedo is compared with the time series of the AO mode and Barents Sea mode of surface air temperature. It is shown that the recent AO negative pattern showing warm Arctic and cold mid-latitudes is in good agreement with planetary albedo change indicating negative anomaly in high latitudes and positive anomaly in mid-latitudes. Moreover, the Barents Sea mode with the warm Barents Sea and cold mid-latitudes shows long-term variability similar to planetary albedo change. Although further studies are needed, the natural variabilities of both the AO mode and Barents Sea mode indicate some possible link to the planetary albedo as suggested by the simple EBM to cause the warming hiatus in recent years.

  4. Climate change-driven cliff and beach evolution at decadal to centennial time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erikson, Li; O'Neill, Andrea; Barnard, Patrick; Vitousek, Sean; Limber, Patrick

    2017-01-01

    Here we develop a computationally efficient method that evolves cross-shore profiles of sand beaches with or without cliffs along natural and urban coastal environments and across expansive geographic areas at decadal to centennial time-scales driven by 21st century climate change projections. The model requires projected sea level rise rates, extrema of nearshore wave conditions, bluff recession and shoreline change rates, and cross-shore profiles representing present-day conditions. The model is applied to the ~470-km long coast of the Southern California Bight, USA, using recently available projected nearshore waves and bluff recession and shoreline change rates. The results indicate that eroded cliff material, from unarmored cliffs, contribute 11% to 26% to the total sediment budget. Historical beach nourishment rates will need to increase by more than 30% for a 0.25 m sea level rise (~2044) and by at least 75% by the year 2100 for a 1 m sea level rise, if evolution of the shoreline is to keep pace with rising sea levels.

  5. Influence of climate variability versus change at multi-decadal time scales on hydrological extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willems, Patrick

    2014-05-01

    Recent studies have shown that rainfall and hydrological extremes do not randomly occur in time, but are subject to multidecadal oscillations. In addition to these oscillations, there are temporal trends due to climate change. Design statistics, such as intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) for extreme rainfall or flow-duration-frequency (QDF) relationships, are affected by both types of temporal changes (short term and long term). This presentation discusses these changes, how they influence water engineering design and decision making, and how this influence can be assessed and taken into account in practice. The multidecadal oscillations in rainfall and hydrological extremes were studied based on a technique for the identification and analysis of changes in extreme quantiles. The statistical significance of the oscillations was evaluated by means of a non-parametric bootstrapping method. Oscillations in large scale atmospheric circulation were identified as the main drivers for the temporal oscillations in rainfall and hydrological extremes. They also explain why spatial phase shifts (e.g. north-south variations in Europe) exist between the oscillation highs and lows. Next to the multidecadal climate oscillations, several stations show trends during the most recent decades, which may be attributed to climate change as a result of anthropogenic global warming. Such attribution to anthropogenic global warming is, however, uncertain. It can be done based on simulation results with climate models, but it is shown that the climate model results are too uncertain to enable a clear attribution. Water engineering design statistics, such as extreme rainfall IDF or peak or low flow QDF statistics, obviously are influenced by these temporal variations (oscillations, trends). It is shown in the paper, based on the Brussels 10-minutes rainfall data, that rainfall design values may be about 20% biased or different when based on short rainfall series of 10 to 15 years length, and

  6. A possible interrelation between Earth rotation and climatic variability at decadal time-scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonid Zotov

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Using multichannel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA we decomposed climatic time series into principal components, and compared them with Earth rotation parameters. The global warming trends were initially subtracted. Similar quasi 60 and 20 year periodic oscillations have been found in the global mean Earth temperature anomaly (HadCRUT4 and global mean sea level (GMSL. Similar cycles were also found in Earth rotation variation. Over the last 160 years multi-decadal change of Earth's rotation velocity is correlated with the 60-year temperature anomaly, and Chandler wobble envelope reproduces the form of the 60-year oscillation noticed in GMSL. The quasi 20-year oscillation observed in GMSL is correlated with the Chandler wobble excitation. So, we assume that Earth's rotation and climate indexes are connected. Despite of all the clues hinting this connection, no sound conclusion can be done as far as ocean circulation modelling is not able to correctly catch angular momentum of the oscillatory modes.

  7. Plutonium in wildlife and soils at the Maralinga legacy site: persistence over decadal time scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johansen, M.P.; Child, D.P.; Davis, E.; Doering, C.; Harrison, J.J.; Hotchkis, M.A.C.; Payne, T.E.; Thiruvoth, S.; Twining, J.R.; Wood, M.D.

    2014-01-01

    The mobility of plutonium (Pu) in soils, and its uptake into a range of wildlife, were examined using recent and ∼25 year old data from the Taranaki area of the former Maralinga weapons test site, Australia. Since its initial deposition in the early 1960s, the dispersed Pu has been incorporated into the soil profile and food chain through natural processes, allowing for the study of Pu sequestration and dynamics in relatively undisturbed semi-arid conditions. The data indicate downward mobility of Pu in soil at rates of ∼0.2–0.3 cm per year for the most mobile fraction. As a result, while all of the Pu was initially deposited on the ground surface, approximately 93% and 62% remained in the top 0–2 cm depth after 25- and 50-years respectively. No large-scale lateral spreading of the Taranaki plume was observed. Pu activity concentrations in 0–1 cm soils with biotic crusts were not elevated when compared with nearby bare soils, although a small number of individual data suggest retention of Pu-containing particles may be occurring in some biotic crusts. Soil-to-animal transfer, as measured by concentration ratios (CR wo-soil ), was 4.1E−04 (Geometric Mean (GM)) in mammals, which aligns well with those from similar species and conditions (such as the Nevada Test Site, US), but are lower than the GM of the international mammal data reported in the Wildlife Transfer Database (WTD). These lower values are likely due to the presence of a low-soluble, particulate form of the Pu in Maralinga soils. Arthropod concentration ratios (3.1E−03 GM), were similar to those from Rocky Flats, US, while values for reptiles (2.0E−02 GM) were higher than the WTD GM value which was dominated by data from Chernobyl. Comparison of uptake data spanning approximately 30 years indicates no decrease over time for mammals, and a potential increase for reptiles. The results confirm the persistence of bioavailable Pu after more than 50 years since deposition, and also the presence

  8. Decadal time-scale monitoring of forest fires in Similipal Biosphere Reserve, India using remote sensing and GIS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saranya, K R L; Reddy, C Sudhakar; Rao, P V V Prasada; Jha, C S

    2014-05-01

    Analyzing the spatial extent and distribution of forest fires is essential for sustainable forest resource management. There is no comprehensive data existing on forest fires on a regular basis in Biosphere Reserves of India. The present work have been carried out to locate and estimate the spatial extent of forest burnt areas using Resourcesat-1 data and fire frequency covering decadal fire events (2004-2013) in Similipal Biosphere Reserve. The anomalous quantity of forest burnt area was recorded during 2009 as 1,014.7 km(2). There was inconsistency in the fire susceptibility across the different vegetation types. The spatial analysis of burnt area shows that an area of 34.2 % of dry deciduous forests, followed by tree savannah, shrub savannah, and grasslands affected by fires in 2013. The analysis based on decadal time scale satellite data reveals that an area of 2,175.9 km(2) (59.6 % of total vegetation cover) has been affected by varied rate of frequency of forest fires. Fire density pattern indicates low count of burnt area patches in 2013 estimated at 1,017 and high count at 1,916 in 2004. An estimate of fire risk area over a decade identifies 12.2 km(2) is experiencing an annual fire damage. Summing the fire frequency data across the grids (each 1 km(2)) indicates 1,211 (26 %) grids are having very high disturbance regimes due to repeated fires in all the 10 years, followed by 711 grids in 9 years and 418 in 8 years and 382 in 7 years. The spatial database offers excellent opportunities to understand the ecological impact of fires on biodiversity and is helpful in formulating conservation action plans.

  9. Studies of Ocean Predictability at Decade to Century Time Scales Using a Global Ocean General Circulation Model in a Parallel Computing Environment; FINAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barnett, T.P.

    1998-01-01

    The objectives of this report are to determine the structure of oceanic natural variability at time scales of decades to centuries, characterize the physical mechanisms responsible for the variability; determine the relative importance of heat, fresh water, and moment fluxes on the variability; determine the predictability of the variability on these times scales

  10. North American Rocky Mountain Hydroclimate: Holocene patterns and variability at multi-decadal to millennial time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finney, B.; Anderson, L.; Berkelhammer, M. B.; Barron, J. A.; Steinman, B. A.; Abbott, M. B.

    2015-12-01

    A network of western North American lake sediment isotope records (calcium carbonate-δ18O) developed during the past decade provides substantial evidence of Pacific ocean-atmosphere forcing of precipitation variability during the Holocene. We present an overview of the eighteen lake carbonate-δ18O records located in the North American Rocky Mountains with a new compilation of modern lake water isotope measurements to characterize their sensitivity to variations in precipitation-δ18O and fractionation effects by evaporation. Comparative analysis of the carbonate-δ18O records that reflect precipitation isotope (δ18O) values (i.e., precipitation "isometers") indicates a sequence of time-varying in-phase and antiphase patterns between northern and southern regions during the Holocene that provide evidence for a highly non-stationary influence of Pacific ocean-atmosphere processes on the hydroclimate of western North America. We identify a prominent precipitation-δ18O dipole, which was sustained for ~2000 years between ~3.5 and 1.5 ka. The dipole contrasts with divergent earlier Holocene patterns and appears to indicate the onset of linkages between northern and tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere dynamics as we know them today. These observations are informed by previous research on North Pacific precipitation-δ18O. Further investigation of short (observational) and long (Holocene) time scale patterns are needed to improve our understanding of the processes that 1) drive regional precipitation-δ18O responses to Pacific Ocean-atmosphere variability, and 2) cause varying internal ocean-atmosphere responses to external climate forcing.

  11. Geomagnetic field and length-of-day fluctuations at decadal and subdecadal time scales. A plea for looking beyond the atmosphere for partners in Earth's rotation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demetrescu, C.; Dobrica, V.; Stefan, C.

    2017-12-01

    A rich scientific literature is linking length-of-day (LOD) fluctuations to geomagnetic field and flow oscillations in the fluid outer core. We demostrate that the temporal evolution of the geomagnetic field shows the existence of several oscillations at decadal, inter-decadal, and sub-centennial time scales that superimpose on a so-called inter-centennial constituent. We show that while the subcentennial oscillations of the geomagnetic field, produced by torsional oscillations in the core, could be linked to oscillations of LOD at a similar time scale, the oscillations at decadal and sub-decadal time scales, of external origin, can be found in LOD too. We discuss these issues from the perspective of long time-span main field models (gufm1 - Jackson et al., 2000; COV-OBS - Gillet et al., 2013) that are used to retrieve time series of geomagnetic elements in a 2.5x2.5° network. The decadal and sub-decadal constituents of the time series of annual values in LOD and geomagnetic field were separated in the cyclic component of a Hodrick-Prescott filtering applied to data, and shown to highly correlate to variations of external sources such as the magnetospheric ring current.

  12. A 1500-year reconstruction of annual mean temperature for temperate North America on decadal-to-multidecadal time scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trouet, V; Diaz, H F; Wahl, E R; Viau, A E; Graham, R; Graham, N; Cook, E R

    2013-01-01

    We present two reconstructions of annual average temperature over temperate North America: a tree-ring based reconstruction at decadal resolution (1200–1980 CE) and a pollen-based reconstruction at 30 year resolution that extends back to 480 CE. We maximized reconstruction length by using long but low-resolution pollen records and applied a three-tier calibration scheme for this purpose. The tree-ring-based reconstruction was calibrated against instrumental annual average temperatures on annual and decadal scale, it was then reduced to a lower resolution, and was used as a calibration target for the pollen-based reconstruction. Before the late-19th to the early-21st century, there are three prominent low-frequency periods in our extended reconstruction starting at 480 CE, notably the Dark Ages cool period (about 500–700 CE) and Little Ice Age (about 1200–1900 CE), and the warmer medieval climate anomaly (MCA; about 750–1100 CE). The 9th and the 11th century are the warmest centuries and they constitute the core of the MCA in our reconstruction, a period characterized by centennial-scale aridity in the North American West. These two warm peaks are slightly warmer than the baseline period (1904–1980), but nevertheless much cooler than temperate North American temperatures during the early-21st century. (letter)

  13. Atmospheric and Oceanic Response to Southern Ocean Deep Convection Oscillations on Decadal to Centennial Time Scales in Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, T.; Reintges, A.; Park, W.; Latif, M.

    2014-12-01

    Many current coupled global climate models simulate open ocean deep convection in the Southern Ocean as a recurring event with time scales ranging from a few years to centennial (de Lavergne et al., 2014, Nat. Clim. Ch.). The only observation of such event, however, was the occurrence of the Weddell Polynya in the mid-1970s, an open water area of 350 000 km2 within the Antarctic sea ice in three consecutive winters. Both the wide range of modeled frequency of occurrence and the absence of deep convection in the Weddell Sea highlights the lack of understanding concerning the phenomenon. Nevertheless, simulations indicate that atmospheric and oceanic responses to the cessation of deep convection in the Southern Ocean include a strengthening of the low-level atmospheric circulation over the Southern Ocean (increasing SAM index) and a reduction in the export of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW), potentially masking the regional effects of global warming (Latif et al., 2013, J. Clim.; Martin et al., 2014, Deep Sea Res. II). It is thus of great importance to enhance our understanding of Southern Ocean deep convection and clarify the associated time scales. In two multi-millennial simulations with the Kiel Climate Model (KCM, ECHAM5 T31 atmosphere & NEMO-LIM2 ~2˚ ocean) we showed that the deep convection is driven by strong oceanic warming at mid-depth periodically overriding the stabilizing effects of precipitation and ice melt (Martin et al., 2013, Clim. Dyn.). Sea ice thickness also affects location and duration of the deep convection. A new control simulation, in which, amongst others, the atmosphere grid resolution is changed to T42 (~2.8˚), yields a faster deep convection flip-flop with a period of 80-100 years and a weaker but still significant global climate response similar to CMIP5 simulations. While model physics seem to affect the time scale and intensity of the phenomenon, the driving mechanism is a rather robust feature. Finally, we compare the atmospheric and

  14. Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Surface Water Extent from Three Decades of Seasonally Continuous Landsat Time Series at Subcontinental Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tulbure, M. G.; Broich, M.; Stehman, Stephen V.

    2016-06-01

    Surface water is a critical resource in semi-arid areas. The Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) of Australia, one of the largest semi-arid basins in the world is aiming to set a worldwide example of how to balance multiple interests (i.e. environment, agriculture and urban use), but has suffered significant water shrinkages during the Millennium Drought (1999-2009), followed by extensive flooding. Baseline information and systematic quantification of surface water (SW) extent and flooding dynamics in space and time are needed for managing SW resources across the basin but are currently lacking. To synoptically quantify changes in SW extent and flooding dynamics over MDB, we used seasonally continuous Landsat TM and ETM+ data (1986 - 2011) and generic machine learning algorithms. We further mapped flooded forest at a riparian forest site that experienced severe tree dieback due to changes in flooding regime. We used a stratified sampling design to assess the accuracy of the SW product across time. Accuracy assessment yielded an overall classification accuracy of 99.94%, with producer's and user's accuracy of SW of 85.4% and 97.3%, respectively. Overall accuracy was the same for Landsat 5 and 7 data but user's and producer's accuracy of water were higher for Landsat 7 than 5 data and stable over time. Our validated results document a rapid loss in SW bodies. The number, size, and total area of SW showed high seasonal variability with highest numbers in winter and lowest numbers in summer. SW extent per season per year showed high interannual and seasonal variability, with low seasonal variability during the Millennium Drought. Examples of current uses of the new dataset will be presented and include (1) assessing ecosystem response to flooding with implications for environmental water releases, one of the largest investment in environment in Australia; (2) quantifying drivers of SW dynamics (e.g. climate, human activity); (3) quantifying changes in SW dynamics and

  15. Overview of the US JGOFS Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS): a decade-scale look at ocean biology and biogeochemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinberg, Deborah K.; Carlson, Craig A.; Bates, Nicholas R.; Johnson, Rodney J.; Michaels, Anthony F.; Knap, Anthony H.

    The Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS) commenced monthly sampling in October 1988 as part of the US Joint Global Ocean Flux Study (JGOFS) program. The goals of the US JGOFS time-series research are to better understand the basic processes that control ocean biogeochemistry on seasonal to decadal time-scales, determine the role of the oceans in the global carbon budget, and ultimately improve our ability to predict the effects of climate change on ecosystems. The BATS program samples the ocean on a biweekly to monthly basis, a strategy that resolves major seasonal patterns and interannual variability. The core cruises last 4-5 d during which hydrography, nutrients, particle flux, pigments and primary production, bacterioplankton abundance and production, and often complementary ancillary measurements are made. This overview focuses on patterns in ocean biology and biogeochemistry over a decade at the BATS site, concentrating on seasonal and interannual changes in community structure, and the physical forcing and other factors controlling the temporal dynamics. Significant seasonal and interannual variability in phytoplankton and bacterioplankton production, biomass, and community structure exists at BATS. No strong relationship exists between primary production and particle flux during the 10 yr record, with the relationship slightly improved by applying an artificial lag of 1 week between production and flux. The prokaryotic picoplankton regularly dominate the phytoplankton community; diatom blooms are rare but occur periodically in the BATS time series. The increase in Chl a concentrations during bloom periods is due to increases by most of the taxa present, rather than by any single group, and there is seasonal succession of phytoplankton. The bacterioplankton often dominate the living biomass, indicating the potential to consume large amounts of carbon and play a major ecological role within the microbial food web. Bacterial biomass, production, and

  16. Lake oxygen isotopes as recorders of North American Rocky Mountain hydroclimate: Holocene patterns and variability at multi-decadal to millennial time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Lesleigh; Max Berkelhammer,; Barron, John A.; Steinman, Byron A.; Finney, Bruce P.; Abbott, Mark B.

    2016-01-01

    Lake sediment oxygen isotope records (calcium carbonate-δ18O) in the western North American Cordillera developed during the past decade provide substantial evidence of Pacific ocean–atmosphere forcing of hydroclimatic variability during the Holocene. Here we present an overview of 18 lake sediment δ18O records along with a new compilation of lake water δ18O and δ2H that are used to characterize lake sediment sensitivity to precipitation-δ18O in contrast to fractionation by evaporation. Of the 18 records, 14 have substantial sensitivity to evaporation. Two records reflect precipitation-δ18O since the middle Holocene, Jellybean and Bison Lakes, and are geographically positioned in the northern and southern regions of the study area. Their comparative analysis indicates a sequence of time-varying north–south precipitation-δ18O patterns that is evidence for a highly non-stationary influence by Pacific ocean–atmosphere processes on the hydroclimate of western North America. These observations are discussed within the context of previous research on North Pacific precipitation-δ18O based on empirical and modeling methods. The Jellybean and Bison Lake records indicate that a prominent precipitation-δ18O dipole (enriched-north and depleted-south) was sustained between ~ 3.5 and 1.5 ka, which contrasts with earlier Holocene patterns, and appears to indicate the onset of a dominant tropical control on North Pacific ocean–atmosphere dynamics. This remains the state of the system today. Higher frequency reversals of the north–south precipitation-δ18O dipole between ~ 2.5 and 1.5 ka, and during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age, also suggest more varieties of Pacific ocean–atmosphere modes than a single Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) type analogue. Results indicate that further investigation of precipitation-δ18O patterns on short (observational) and long (Holocene) time scales is needed to improve our understanding of the

  17. Lake oxygen isotopes as recorders of North American Rocky Mountain hydroclimate: Holocene patterns and variability at multi-decadal to millennial time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Lesleigh; Berkelhammer, Max; Barron, John A.; Steinman, Byron A.; Finney, Bruce P.; Abbott, Mark B.

    2016-02-01

    Lake sediment oxygen isotope records (calcium carbonate-δ18O) in the western North American Cordillera developed during the past decade provide substantial evidence of Pacific ocean-atmosphere forcing of hydroclimatic variability during the Holocene. Here we present an overview of 18 lake sediment δ18O records along with a new compilation of lake water δ18O and δ2H that are used to characterize lake sediment sensitivity to precipitation-δ18O in contrast to fractionation by evaporation. Of the 18 records, 14 have substantial sensitivity to evaporation. Two records reflect precipitation-δ18O since the middle Holocene, Jellybean and Bison Lakes, and are geographically positioned in the northern and southern regions of the study area. Their comparative analysis indicates a sequence of time-varying north-south precipitation-δ18O patterns that is evidence for a highly non-stationary influence by Pacific ocean-atmosphere processes on the hydroclimate of western North America. These observations are discussed within the context of previous research on North Pacific precipitation-δ18O based on empirical and modeling methods. The Jellybean and Bison Lake records indicate that a prominent precipitation-δ18O dipole (enriched-north and depleted-south) was sustained between ~ 3.5 and 1.5 ka, which contrasts with earlier Holocene patterns, and appears to indicate the onset of a dominant tropical control on North Pacific ocean-atmosphere dynamics. This remains the state of the system today. Higher frequency reversals of the north-south precipitation-δ18O dipole between ~ 2.5 and 1.5 ka, and during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age, also suggest more varieties of Pacific ocean-atmosphere modes than a single Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) type analogue. Results indicate that further investigation of precipitation-δ18O patterns on short (observational) and long (Holocene) time scales is needed to improve our understanding of the processes that drive

  18. The sensitivity of the atmospheric branch of the global water cycle to temperature fluctuations at synoptic to decadal time-scales in different satellite- and model-based products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nogueira, Miguel

    2018-02-01

    Spectral analysis of global-mean precipitation, P, evaporation, E, precipitable water, W, and surface temperature, Ts, revealed significant variability from sub-daily to multi-decadal time-scales, superposed on high-amplitude diurnal and yearly peaks. Two distinct regimes emerged from a transition in the spectral exponents, β. The weather regime covering time-scales 1-2 years, while at time-scales global-ocean and full-globe averages, ρDCCA showed large spread of the C-C importance for P and E variability amongst different datasets at multi-year time-scales, ranging from negligible (governing mechanisms.

  19. Decadal-Scale Forecasting of Climate Drivers for Marine Applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salinger, J; Hobday, A J; Matear, R J; O'Kane, T J; Risbey, J S; Dunstan, P; Eveson, J P; Fulton, E A; Feng, M; Plagányi, É E; Poloczanska, E S; Marshall, A G; Thompson, P A

    Climate influences marine ecosystems on a range of time scales, from weather-scale (days) through to climate-scale (hundreds of years). Understanding of interannual to decadal climate variability and impacts on marine industries has received less attention. Predictability up to 10 years ahead may come from large-scale climate modes in the ocean that can persist over these time scales. In Australia the key drivers of climate variability affecting the marine environment are the Southern Annular Mode, the Indian Ocean Dipole, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, each has phases that are associated with different ocean circulation patterns and regional environmental variables. The roles of these drivers are illustrated with three case studies of extreme events-a marine heatwave in Western Australia, a coral bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef, and flooding in Queensland. Statistical and dynamical approaches are described to generate forecasts of climate drivers that can subsequently be translated to useful information for marine end users making decisions at these time scales. Considerable investment is still needed to support decadal forecasting including improvement of ocean-atmosphere models, enhancement of observing systems on all scales to support initiation of forecasting models, collection of important biological data, and integration of forecasts into decision support tools. Collaboration between forecast developers and marine resource sectors-fisheries, aquaculture, tourism, biodiversity management, infrastructure-is needed to support forecast-based tactical and strategic decisions that reduce environmental risk over annual to decadal time scales. © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. High spatial resolution decade-time scale land cover change at multiple locations in the Beringian Arctic (1948–2000s)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, D H; Johnson, D R; Tweedie, C E; Andresen, C

    2012-01-01

    Analysis of time series imagery from satellite and aircraft platforms is useful for detecting land cover change at plot to regional scales. In this study, we created multi-temporal high spatial resolution land cover maps for seven locations in the Beringian Arctic and assessed the change in land cover over time. Land cover classifications were site specific and mostly aligned with a soil moisture gradient. Time series varied between 60 and 21 years. Four of the five landscapes studied in Alaska underwent an expansion of drier land cover classes while the two landscapes studies in Chukotka, Russia showed an expansion of wetter land cover types. While a range of land cover types was present across the landscapes studied, the extent of shrubs (in Chukotka) and open water (in Alaska) increased in all landscapes where these land cover types were present. The results support trends documented for regional change in NDVI (a measure of vegetation greenness and productivity) as well as a host of other long term, experimental and modeling studies. Using historic change trends for each land cover type at each landscape, we use a simple probabilistic vegetation model to establish hypotheses of future change trajectories for different land cover types at each of the landscapes investigated. This study is a contribution to the International Polar Year Back to the Future project (IPY-BTF). (letter)

  1. The history of Korea electric times for four decades

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-11-01

    This book reports the history of Korea electric times for four decades, which is comprised of six parts, it deals with establishment of electric times and organizational systems and an editorial policy, status and pains for rebirth, open up new future, foundation of growth for the electric times, stability of organization extension of organization, establishing independent corporation, carrying out a radical reform, changing reading newspaper into seeing newspaper, ensuring internal stability, for the daily newspaper, development of contents on power industry technology, strategy for specialization, plan for campaign for patriotism, major business for four decades, today's electric times newspaper and future, and electric times years through the paper.

  2. Multiple time scale dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Kuehn, Christian

    2015-01-01

    This book provides an introduction to dynamical systems with multiple time scales. The approach it takes is to provide an overview of key areas, particularly topics that are less available in the introductory form.  The broad range of topics included makes it accessible for students and researchers new to the field to gain a quick and thorough overview. The first of its kind, this book merges a wide variety of different mathematical techniques into a more unified framework. The book is highly illustrated with many examples and exercises and an extensive bibliography. The target audience of this  book are senior undergraduates, graduate students as well as researchers interested in using the multiple time scale dynamics theory in nonlinear science, either from a theoretical or a mathematical modeling perspective. 

  3. A Decade-Long European-Scale Convection-Resolving Climate Simulation on GPUs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leutwyler, D.; Fuhrer, O.; Ban, N.; Lapillonne, X.; Lüthi, D.; Schar, C.

    2016-12-01

    Convection-resolving models have proven to be very useful tools in numerical weather prediction and in climate research. However, due to their extremely demanding computational requirements, they have so far been limited to short simulations and/or small computational domains. Innovations in the supercomputing domain have led to new supercomputer designs that involve conventional multi-core CPUs and accelerators such as graphics processing units (GPUs). One of the first atmospheric models that has been fully ported to GPUs is the Consortium for Small-Scale Modeling weather and climate model COSMO. This new version allows us to expand the size of the simulation domain to areas spanning continents and the time period up to one decade. We present results from a decade-long, convection-resolving climate simulation over Europe using the GPU-enabled COSMO version on a computational domain with 1536x1536x60 gridpoints. The simulation is driven by the ERA-interim reanalysis. The results illustrate how the approach allows for the representation of interactions between synoptic-scale and meso-scale atmospheric circulations at scales ranging from 1000 to 10 km. We discuss some of the advantages and prospects from using GPUs, and focus on the performance of the convection-resolving modeling approach on the European scale. Specifically we investigate the organization of convective clouds and on validate hourly rainfall distributions with various high-resolution data sets.

  4. The ScaLIng Macroweather Model (SLIMM): using scaling to forecast global-scale macroweather from months to decades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lovejoy, S.; del Rio Amador, L.; Hébert, R.

    2015-09-01

    agreement with hindcasts, and these show some skill even on decadal scales. We also compare our forecast errors with those of several GCM experiments (with and without initialization) and with other stochastic forecasts, showing that even this simplest two parameter SLIMM is somewhat superior. In future, using a space-time (regionalized) generalization of SLIMM, we expect to be able to exploit the system memory more extensively and obtain even more realistic forecasts.

  5. The Scaling LInear Macroweather model (SLIM): using scaling to forecast global scale macroweather from months to decades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lovejoy, S.; del Rio Amador, L.; Hébert, R.

    2015-03-01

    At scales of ≈ 10 days (the lifetime of planetary scale structures), there is a drastic transition from high frequency weather to low frequency macroweather. This scale is close to the predictability limits of deterministic atmospheric models; so that in GCM macroweather forecasts, the weather is a high frequency noise. But neither the GCM noise nor the GCM climate is fully realistic. In this paper we show how simple stochastic models can be developped that use empirical data to force the statistics and climate to be realistic so that even a two parameter model can outperform GCM's for annual global temperature forecasts. The key is to exploit the scaling of the dynamics and the enormous stochastic memories that it implies. Since macroweather intermittency is low, we propose using the simplest model based on fractional Gaussian noise (fGn): the Scaling LInear Macroweather model (SLIM). SLIM is based on a stochastic ordinary differential equations, differing from usual linear stochastic models (such as the Linear Inverse Modelling, LIM) in that it is of fractional rather than integer order. Whereas LIM implicitly assumes there is no low frequency memory, SLIM has a huge memory that can be exploited. Although the basic mathematical forecast problem for fGn has been solved, we approach the problem in an original manner notably using the method of innovations to obtain simpler results on forecast skill and on the size of the effective system memory. A key to successful forecasts of natural macroweather variability is to first remove the low frequency anthropogenic component. A previous attempt to use fGn for forecasts had poor results because this was not done. We validate our theory using hindcasts of global and Northern Hemisphere temperatures at monthly and annual resolutions. Several nondimensional measures of forecast skill - with no adjustable parameters - show excellent agreement with hindcasts and these show some skill even at decadal scales. We also compare

  6. Evolution of Time Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-12-01

    as the fundamental unit of time in the International System of Units. It was defined as ( Metrologia , 1968) “the duration of 9 192 631 770 periods of...atomic time equivalent to the second of ET in principle. The Comité Consultatif pour la Définition de la Seconde (CCDS) of the CIPM recommended...with the definition of the second, the unit of time of the Inter- national System of Units” ( Metrologia , 1971). The CCDS (BIPM Com. Cons. Déf. Seconde

  7. On the Geologic Time Scale

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gradstein, F.M.; Ogg, J.G.; Hilgen, F.J.

    2012-01-01

    This report summarizes the international divisions and ages in the Geologic Time Scale, published in 2012 (GTS2012). Since 2004, when GTS2004 was detailed, major developments have taken place that directly bear and have considerable impact on the intricate science of geologic time scaling. Precam

  8. Dynamic inequalities on time scales

    CERN Document Server

    Agarwal, Ravi; Saker, Samir

    2014-01-01

    This is a monograph devoted to recent research and results on dynamic inequalities on time scales. The study of dynamic inequalities on time scales has been covered extensively in the literature in recent years and has now become a major sub-field in pure and applied mathematics. In particular, this book will cover recent results on integral inequalities, including Young's inequality, Jensen's inequality, Holder's inequality, Minkowski's inequality, Steffensen's inequality, Hermite-Hadamard inequality and Čebyšv's inequality. Opial type inequalities on time scales and their extensions with weighted functions, Lyapunov type inequalities, Halanay type inequalities for dynamic equations on time scales, and Wirtinger type inequalities on time scales and their extensions will also be discussed here in detail.

  9. Decadal- to Centennial-Scale Variations in Anchovy Biomass in the Last 250 Years Inferred From Scales Preserved in Laminated Sediments off the Coast of Pisco, Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salvatteci, R.; Field, D.; Gutierrez, D.; Baumgartner, T.; Ferreira, V.; Velazco, F.; Niquen, M.; Guevara, R.; Sifeddine, A.; Ortlieb, L.

    2005-12-01

    The highly productive upwelling environment off the coast of Peru sustains one of the world's largest fisheries, the Peruvian anchoveta ( Engraulis ringens), but variability on interannual to decadal timescales results in dramatic variations in catch. We quantified variations in anchovy scale abundance preserved in laminated sediments collected at 300 m depth of the Peruvian margin (near Pisco, central Peru) to infer decadal- to centennial-scale population variability prior to the development of the fishery. High-resolution subsampling of 2.5 - 8.2 mm was done following the laminated structure of the core. A chronology based on downcore excess 210Pb activities and 14C-AMS ages indicate that samples represent an estimated 1-7 years in time. Anchovy scale deposition is correlated with anchovy landings at Pisco, indicating that scale deposition can be used as a proxy of (at least) local biomass. A small, but significant, reduction in anchovy scale width (0.2 mm) after the development of the fishery suggests a small effect of the fishery on anchovy size distributions. While decadal-scale variability in anchovy scale deposition is persistent throughout the record, a dramatic increase in scale flux occurred around 1860 A.D. and persists for approximately a century. Our results indicate that centennial-scale variability composes a large portion of the variability. However, decadal-scale variability associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is not correlated with the inferred biomass variability prior to the development of the fishery. Shifts in the distribution of the population may account for an additional component of the variability in scale deposition.

  10. Sub-decadal- to decadal-scale climate cyclicity during the Holsteinian interglacial (MIS 11 evidenced in annually laminated sediments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Koutsodendris

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available To unravel the short-term climate variability during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS 11, which represents a close analogue to the Holocene with regard to orbital boundary conditions, we performed microfacies and time series analyses on a ~3200-yr-long record of annually laminated Holsteinian lake sediments from Dethlingen, northern Germany. These biogenic varves comprise two sub-layers: a light sub-layer, which is controlled by spring/summer diatom blooms, and a dark sub-layer consisting mainly of amorphous organic matter and fragmented diatom frustules deposited during autumn/winter. Time series analyses were performed on the thickness of the light and dark sub-layers. Signals exceeding the 95% and 99% confidence levels occur at periods that are near-identical to those known from modern instrumental data and Holocene palaeoclimatic records. Spectral peaks at periods of 90, 25, and 10.5 yr are likely associated with the 88-, 22- and 11-yr solar cycles, respectively. This variability is mainly expressed in the light sub-layer spectra, suggesting solar influence on the palaeoproductivity of the lake. Significant signals at periods between 3 and 5 yr and at ∼6 yr are strongest expressed in the dark sub-layer spectra and may reflect an influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO during autumn/winter. Our results suggest that solar forcing and ENSO/NAO-like variability influenced central European climate during MIS 11 similarly to the present interglacial, thus demonstrating the comparability of the two interglacial periods at sub-decadal to decadal timescales.

  11. A Robust Decision-Making Technique for Water Management under Decadal Scale Climate Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Callihan, L.; Zagona, E. A.; Rajagopalan, B.

    2013-12-01

    Robust decision making, a flexible and dynamic approach to managing water resources in light of deep uncertainties associated with climate variability at inter-annual to decadal time scales, is an analytical framework that detects when a system is in or approaching a vulnerable state. It provides decision makers the opportunity to implement strategies that both address the vulnerabilities and perform well over a wide range of plausible future scenarios. A strategy that performs acceptably over a wide range of possible future states is not likely to be optimal with respect to the actual future state. The degree of success--the ability to avoid vulnerable states and operate efficiently--thus depends on the skill in projecting future states and the ability to select the most efficient strategies to address vulnerabilities. This research develops a robust decision making framework that incorporates new methods of decadal scale projections with selection of efficient strategies. Previous approaches to water resources planning under inter-annual climate variability combining skillful seasonal flow forecasts with climatology for subsequent years are not skillful for medium term (i.e. decadal scale) projections as decision makers are not able to plan adequately to avoid vulnerabilities. We address this need by integrating skillful decadal scale streamflow projections into the robust decision making framework and making the probability distribution of this projection available to the decision making logic. The range of possible future hydrologic scenarios can be defined using a variety of nonparametric methods. Once defined, an ensemble projection of decadal flow scenarios are generated from a wavelet-based spectral K-nearest-neighbor resampling approach using historical and paleo-reconstructed data. This method has been shown to generate skillful medium term projections with a rich variety of natural variability. The current state of the system in combination with the

  12. Climate control of decadal-scale increases in apparent ages of eogenetic karst spring water

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Jonathan B.; Kurz, Marie J.; Khadka, Mitra B.

    2016-09-01

    Water quantity and quality in karst aquifers may depend on decadal-scale variations in recharge or withdrawal, which we hypothesize could be assessed through time-series measurements of apparent ages of spring water. We tested this hypothesis with analyses of various age tracers (3H/3He, SF6, CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-113) and selected solute concentrations [dissolved oxygen (DO), NO3, Mg, and SO4] from 6 springs in a single spring complex (Ichetucknee springs) in northern Florida over a 16-yr period. These springs fall into two groups that reflect shallow short (Group 1) and deep long (Group 2) flow paths. Some tracer concentrations are altered, with CFC-12 and CFC-113 concentrations yielding the most robust apparent ages. These tracers show a 10-20-yr monotonic increase in apparent age from 1997 to 2013, including the flood recession that followed Tropical Storm Debby in mid-2012. This increase in age indicates most water discharged during the study period recharged the aquifer within a few years of 1973 for Group 2 springs and 1980 for Group 1 springs. Inverse correlations between apparent age and DO and NO3 concentrations reflect reduced redox state in older water. Positive correlations between apparent age and Mg and SO4 concentrations reflect increased water-rock reactions. Concentrated recharge in the decade around 1975 resulted from nearly 2 m of rain in excess of the monthly average that fell between 1960 and 2014, followed by a nearly 4 m deficit to 2014. This excess rain coincided with two major El Niño events during the maximum cool phase in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Although regional water withdrawal increased nearly 5-fold between 1980 and 2005, withdrawals represent only 2-5% of Ichetucknee River flow and are less important than decadal-long variations in precipitation. These results suggest that groundwater management should consider climate cycles as predictive tools for future water resources.

  13. Mechanisms for decadal scale variability in a simulated Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Medhaug, I.; Eldevik, T.; Furevik, T. [University of Bergen, Geophysical Institute, Bergen (Norway); Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway); Langehaug, H.R. [Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen (Norway); Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway); Bentsen, M. [Uni Bjerknes Centre, Uni Research, Bergen (Norway); Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway)

    2012-07-15

    Variability in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has been analysed using a 600-year pre-industrial control simulation with the Bergen Climate Model. The typical AMOC variability has amplitudes of 1 Sverdrup (1 Sv = 10{sup 6} m{sup 3} s{sup -1}) and time scales of 40-70 years. The model is reproducing the observed dense water formation regions and has very realistic ocean transports and water mass distributions. The dense water produced in the Labrador Sea (1/3) and in the Nordic Seas, including the water entrained into the dense overflows across the Greenland-Scotland Ridge (GSR; 2/3), are the sources of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) forming the lower limb of the AMOC's northern overturning. The variability in the Labrador Sea and the Nordic Seas convection is driven by decadal scale air-sea fluxes in the convective region that can be related to opposite phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation. The Labrador Sea convection is directly linked to the variability in AMOC. Linkages between convection and water mass transformation in the Nordic Seas are more indirect. The Scandinavian Pattern, the third mode of atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic, is a driver of the ocean's poleward heat transport (PHT), the overall constraint on northern water mass transformation. Increased PHT is both associated with an increased water mass exchange across the GSR, and a stronger AMOC. (orig.)

  14. Decadal-scale teleconnection between South Atlantic SST and southeast Australia surface air temperature in austral summer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Jiaqing; Li, Jianping; Sun, Cheng; Zhao, Sen; Mao, Jiangyu; Dong, Di; Li, Yanjie; Feng, Juan

    2018-04-01

    Austral summer (December-February) surface air temperature over southeast Australia (SEA) is found to be remotely influenced by sea surface temperature (SST) in the South Atlantic at decadal time scales. In austral summer, warm SST anomalies in the southwest South Atlantic induce concurrent above-normal surface air temperature over SEA. This decadal-scale teleconnection occurs through the eastward propagating South Atlantic-Australia (SAA) wave train triggered by SST anomalies in the southwest South Atlantic. The excitation of the SAA wave train is verified by forcing experiments based on both linear barotropic and baroclinic models, propagation pathway and spatial scale of the observed SAA wave train are further explained by the Rossby wave ray tracing analysis in non-uniform basic flow. The SAA wave train forced by southwest South Atlantic warming is characterized by an anomalous anticyclone off the eastern coast of the Australia. Temperature diagnostic analyses based on the thermodynamic equation suggest anomalous northerly flows on western flank of this anticyclone can induce low-level warm advection anomaly over SEA, which thus lead to the warming of surface air temperature there. Finally, SST-forced atmospheric general circulation model ensemble experiments also demonstrate that SST forcing in the South Atlantic is associated with the SAA teleconnection wave train in austral summer, this wave train then modulate surface air temperature over SEA on decadal timescales. Hence, observations combined with numerical simulations consistently demonstrate the decadal-scale teleconnection between South Atlantic SST and summertime surface air temperature over SEA.

  15. Pair plasma relaxation time scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aksenov, A G; Ruffini, R; Vereshchagin, G V

    2010-04-01

    By numerically solving the relativistic Boltzmann equations, we compute the time scale for relaxation to thermal equilibrium for an optically thick electron-positron plasma with baryon loading. We focus on the time scales of electromagnetic interactions. The collisional integrals are obtained directly from the corresponding QED matrix elements. Thermalization time scales are computed for a wide range of values of both the total-energy density (over 10 orders of magnitude) and of the baryonic loading parameter (over 6 orders of magnitude). This also allows us to study such interesting limiting cases as the almost purely electron-positron plasma or electron-proton plasma as well as intermediate cases. These results appear to be important both for laboratory experiments aimed at generating optically thick pair plasmas as well as for astrophysical models in which electron-positron pair plasmas play a relevant role.

  16. Decadal-Scale Responses in Middle and Upper Stratospheric Ozone From SAGE II Version 7 Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remsberg, E. E.

    2014-01-01

    Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE II) version 7 (v7) ozone profiles are analyzed for their decadal-scale responses in the middle and upper stratosphere for 1991 and 1992-2005 and compared with those from its previous version 6.2 (v6.2). Multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis is applied to time series of its ozone number density vs. altitude data for a range of latitudes and altitudes. The MLR models that are fit to the time series data include a periodic 11 yr term, and it is in-phase with that of the 11 yr, solar UV (Ultraviolet)-flux throughout most of the latitude/ altitude domain of the middle and upper stratosphere. Several regions that have a response that is not quite in-phase are interpreted as being affected by decadal-scale, dynamical forcings. The maximum minus minimum, solar cycle (SClike) responses for the ozone at the low latitudes are similar from the two SAGE II data versions and vary from about 5 to 2.5% from 35 to 50 km, although they are resolved better with v7. SAGE II v7 ozone is also analyzed for 1984-1998, in order to mitigate effects of end-point anomalies that bias its ozone in 1991 and the analyzed results for 1991-2005 or following the Pinatubo eruption. Its SC-like ozone response in the upper stratosphere is of the order of 4%for 1984-1998 vs. 2.5 to 3%for 1991-2005. The SAGE II v7 results are also recompared with the responses in ozone from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) that are in terms of mixing ratio vs. pressure for 1991-2005 and then for late 1992- 2005 to avoid any effects following Pinatubo. Shapes of their respective response profiles agree very well for 1992-2005. The associated linear trends of the ozone are not as negative in 1992-2005 as in 1984-1998, in accord with a leveling off of the effects of reactive chlorine on ozone. It is concluded that the SAGE II v7 ozone yields SC-like ozone responses and trends that are of better quality than those from v6.2.

  17. Decadal-scale Evolution of Sediment Flux in the Aulne Estuary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moskalski, S. M.; Deschamps, A.; Floc'h, F.; Verney, R.; Piete, H.; Fromant, G.; Delacourt, C.

    2013-12-01

    Estuarine sediment transport processes have the potential to evolve over time in response to alterations in various factors both internal and external to the estuary, such as sediment supply, river discharge, tidal forcing, or changes to bathymetry. Changes in sediment transport can affect many estuarine processes (e.g. budgets of sediment-adsorbed contaminants or nutrients) and ecosystem services, such as aquaculture, primary production and the need to dredge shipping channels. Most studies of decadal-scale changes in estuaries focus on geomorphology or bathymetry, or are performed using models calibrated by a limited set of observational studies. Because of the potential for sediment flux to both affect and be affected by geomorphology and bathymetry, observational studies oriented to sediment flux evolution are needed. This study focuses on two intensive observational studies separated by 30 years to quantify change in suspended sediment concentration (SSC) in the Aulne river, a shallow macrotidal estuary in western Brittany. Moored and vessel-mounted acoustic Doppler current profilers and YSIs were deployed over a three-week period in the winter of 2013 to examine hydrodynamic and sediment transport processes. The results of the modern study were compared to a 1977 investigation of currents, suspended sediment concentration, and erosion/deposition. The 1977 study found that SSC during spring tide and average river discharge was less than 30 mg/L near the mouth and above 300 mg/L landward, with near-bottom concentrations in the turbidity maximum zone occasionally greater than 1000 mg/L. SSC was highest during low tide and remained elevated throughout, in the upstream part of the estuary. Sediment deposition was stronger after flood tide due to a longer slack period, which implies landward sediment transport in the estuary. In the 2013 study, near-bottom SSC during spring tide and average river discharge was also highest during low tide, but SSC was above 1000 mg

  18. Decadal- to Orbital-Scale Links Between Climate, Productivity and Denitrification on the Peru Margin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Higginson, M. J.; Altabet, M. A.; Herbert, T. D.

    2002-12-01

    Denitrification is the predominant global loss term for combined nitrogen and can exert a major control on its oceanic inventory, global productivity and atmospheric CO2. Our prior work demonstrates that proxy records for changing denitrification, oxygenation and productivity in the recent geological past in the Arabian Sea exhibit unprecedented similarity with abrupt climate fluctuations recorded in high-latitude ice-cores. Since the Peru Margin and Arabian Sea together constitute almost two-thirds of global marine water-column denitrification, changes in concert in these two regions could potentially have effected rapid global climate changes through an oceanic mechanism. The Peru Margin is intimately coupled to the Equatorial Pacific, source of El Ni&ño-La Niña SST, productivity and precipitation anomalies. Here, biogeochemical cycles are especially sensitive to abrupt climatic changes on decadal time-scales by virtue of this ENSO coupling. The purpose of our research is to investigate whether longer changes in tropical Pacific oceanography represent a 'scaling up' of anomalous ENSO conditions, modulated by both internal (e.g. nutrient inventory or WPWP heat budget) and external (e.g. orbital) forcing throughout the last glacial/inter-glacial cycle. Here we present first results of a detailed investigation of recently-recovered sediments from ODP Site 1228 on the Peru margin upper continental slope, in an attempt to capture some of the essential aspects of ENSO-like variability. Despite the existing availability of high quality sediment cores from this margin, little detailed paleoclimatic information currently exists because of poor sedimentary carbonate preservation (exacerbated post-recovery) which has limited generation of essential chronostratigraphic controls. Instead, we rely on the development and novel application of compound-specific AMS dating verified and supplemented by intermittent foraminiferal and bulk-carbon AMS dates, a magnetic paleo

  19. Analysis of Decadal Vegetation Dynamics Using Multi-Scale Satellite Images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiang, Y.; Chen, K.

    2013-12-01

    This study aims at quantifying vegetation fractional cover (VFC) by incorporating multi-resolution satellite images, including Formosat-2(RSI), SPOT(HRV/HRG), Landsat (MSS/TM) and Terra/Aqua(MODIS), to investigate long-term and seasonal vegetation dynamics in Taiwan. We used 40-year NDVI records for derivation of VFC, with field campaigns routinely conducted to calibrate the critical NDVI threshold. Given different sensor capabilities in terms of their spatial and spectral properties, translation and infusion of NDVIs was used to assure NDVI coherence and to determine the fraction of vegetation cover at different spatio-temporal scales. Based on the proposed method, a bimodal sequence of intra-annual VFC which corresponds to the dual-cropping agriculture pattern was observed. Compared to seasonal VFC variation (78~90%), decadal VFC reveals moderate oscillations (81~86%), which were strongly linked with landuse changes and several major disturbances. This time-series mapping of VFC can be used to examine vegetation dynamics and its response associated with short-term and long-term anthropogenic/natural events.

  20. A laboratory scale fundamental time?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mendes, R.V.

    2012-01-01

    The existence of a fundamental time (or fundamental length) has been conjectured in many contexts. However, the ''stability of physical theories principle'' seems to be the one that provides, through the tools of algebraic deformation theory, an unambiguous derivation of the stable structures that Nature might have chosen for its algebraic framework. It is well-known that c and ℎ are the deformation parameters that stabilize the Galilean and the Poisson algebra. When the stability principle is applied to the Poincare-Heisenberg algebra, two deformation parameters emerge which define two time (or length) scales. In addition there are, for each of them, a plus or minus sign possibility in the relevant commutators. One of the deformation length scales, related to non-commutativity of momenta, is probably related to the Planck length scale but the other might be much larger and already detectable in laboratory experiments. In this paper, this is used as a working hypothesis to look for physical effects that might settle this question. Phase-space modifications, resonances, interference, electron spin resonance and non-commutative QED are considered. (orig.)

  1. Asymmetry of agricultural water consumption in arid regions during alternating decadal scale wet and dry periods: explanation using behavioral economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Fuqiang

    2017-04-01

    Increase of human water consumption for agriculture and consequent degradation of the ecological environment is a common feature in many arid regions. Understanding the driving mechanisms behind this phenomenon is of critical importance for regional sustainable development. In this study, analyses of temporal patterns of human water consumption are carried out in three hyper-arid inland basins, i.e., Aral Sea Basin in Central Asia, and the Tarim and Heihe River Basins in Northwestern China. Multi-decadal time series of hydrological and human consumption data are divided into decadal sequences of wet and dry years. During the wet phases, the greater water availability inspires economic expansion and human water consumption experiences growth at a rate faster than that of incoming water. During the dry phases, however, the expanded economy (e.g., irrigation land expansion in an agriculture-based economy) has been managed to sustain or even to increase production by over-exploitation of water with sophisticated technologies. Inability to reduce human water consumption at a rate commensurate with the decrease of incoming water supply leads to serious ecosystem degradation. This asymmetric human water consumption response of society to decadal scale hydrologic variability can be explained in terms of prospect theory drawn from behavioral economics, which states that people tend to be risk averse when facing gains and show risk preference when facing losses. In the three socio-hydrological case studies, direct economic gain/loss has relatively low value but high certainty when compared to indirect economic loss/gain (such as environmental or sustainability loss/gain), which has high value but with high uncertainty. According to prospect theory, people tend to gain direct economic benefits at the expense of environmental degradation and at the risk of system collapse. The outcomes of this study have major implications for water resources management at long time scales

  2. Holocene Multi-Decadal to Millennial-Scale Hydrologic Variability on the South American Altiplano

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fritz, S. C.; Baker, P. A.; Ekdahl, E.; Burns, S.

    2006-12-01

    On orbital timescales, lacustrine sediment records in the tropical central Andes show massive changes in lake level due to mechanisms related to global-scale drivers, varying at precessional timescales. Here we use stable isotopic and diatom records from two lakes in the Lake Titicaca drainage basin to reconstruct multi- decadal to millennial scale precipitation variability during the last 7000 to 8000 years. The records are tightly coupled at multi-decadal to millennial scales with each other and with lake-level fluctuations in Lake Titicaca, indicating that the lakes are recording a regional climate signal. A quantitative reconstruction of precipitation from stable isotopic data indicates that the central Andes underwent significant wet to dry alternations at multi- centennial frequencies with an amplitude of 30 to 40% of total precipitation. A strong millennial-scale component, similar in duration to periods of increased ice rafted debris flux in the North Atlantic, is observed in both lake records, suggesting that tropical North Atlantic sea-surface temperature (SST) variability may partly control regional precipitation. No clear relationship is evident between these records and the inferred ENSO history from Lago Pallcacocha in the northern tropical Andes. In the instrumental period, regional precipitation variability on inter-annual timescales is clearly influenced by Pacific modes; for example, most El Ninos produce dry and warm conditions in this part of the central Andes. However, on longer timescales, the control of tropical Pacific modes is less clear. Our reconstructions suggest that the cold intervals of the Holocene Bond events are periods of increased precipitation in the central Andes, thus indicating an anti-phasing of precipitation variation in the southern tropics of South America relative to the Northern Hemisphere monsoon region.

  3. Atmospheric and oceanic excitation of decadal-scale Earth orientation variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gross, Richard S.; Fukumori, Ichiro; Menemenlis, Dimitris

    2005-09-01

    The contribution of atmospheric wind and surface pressure and oceanic current and bottom pressure variations during 1949-2002 to exciting changes in the Earth's orientation on decadal timescales is investigated using an atmospheric angular momentum series computed from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis project and an oceanic angular momentum series computed from a near-global ocean model that was forced by surface fluxes from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis project. Not surprisingly, since decadal-scale variations in the length of day are caused mainly by interactions between the mantle and core, the effect of the atmosphere and oceans is found to be only about 14% of that observed. More surprisingly, it is found that the effect of atmospheric and oceanic processes on decadal-scale changes in polar motion is also only about 20% (x component) and 38% (y component) of that observed. Therefore redistribution of mass within the atmosphere and oceans does not appear to be the main cause of the Markowitz wobble. It is also found that on timescales between 10 days and 4 years the atmospheric and oceanic angular momentum series used here have very little skill in explaining Earth orientation variations before the mid to late 1970s. This is attributed to errors in both the Earth orientation observations prior to 1976 when measurements from the accurate space-geodetic techniques became available and to errors in the modeled atmospheric fields prior to 1979 when the satellite era of global weather observing systems began.

  4. Time trends of chronic HBV infection over prior decades - A global analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ott, Jördis J; Horn, Johannes; Krause, Gérard; Mikolajczyk, Rafael T

    2017-01-01

    Information on trends in chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) prevalence across countries is lacking. We studied changes in chronic HBV infection over previous decades by country, and assessed patterns of change between and within WHO-defined regions. Based on data from a published systematic review on chronic HBV, we applied a linear model on the logit scale to assess time trends in country-specific prevalence. Estimated HBsAg prevalence in 2000 and relative changes in prevalence over time were evaluated by country and region. Sufficient data were available for 50 countries, mostly showing reductions in prevalence over time. Various degrees of heterogeneity were observed within regions, with a relatively homogenous pattern in the Eastern Mediterranean region with strong decreases in HBsAg prevalence. Europe showed a mixed pattern: higher and stable chronic HBsAg prevalence in Eastern, and constantly low prevalence in Western Europe. In Africa, some countries demonstrated no change in prevalence; increases were seen in Uganda (odds ratio 1.05 per year; 95% confidence interval 1.04-1.06), Nigeria (1.02; 1.02-1.02), Senegal (1.01; 1.01-1.02), and South Africa (1.02; 1.01-1.02). With some exceptions, country-patterns overlapped among countries of South East Asian and Western Pacific regions, characterized by low-medium HBsAg decreases, most prominent in China and Malaysia. Most countries experienced decreases in HBsAg prevalence. Dynamics varied, even within regions; decreases occurred mostly before the direct effects of childhood vaccination may have manifested. These findings together with stable and increasing HBsAg prevalence in some countries of Africa and Eastern Europe indicate the need for further tailored country-specific prevention. This study investigated time trends in prevalence of chronic HBV infection in 50 countries worldwide over the last decade, by estimating relative changes in prevalence. Results show decreases in chronic HBV infection in most countries

  5. Multi-Decadal to Millennial Scale Holocene Hydrologic Variation in the Southern Hemisphere Tropics of South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ekdahl, E. J.; Fritz, S. C.; Baker, P. A.; Burns, S. J.; Coley, K.; Rigsby, C. A.

    2005-12-01

    Numerous sites in the Northern Hemisphere show multi-decadal to millennial scale climate variation during the Holocene, many of which have been correlated with changes in atmospheric radiocarbon production or with changes in North Atlantic oceanic circulation. The manifestation of such climate variability in the hydrology of the Southern Hemisphere tropics of South America is unclear, because of the limited number of records at suitably high resolution. In the Lake Titicaca drainage basin of Bolivia and Peru, high-resolution lacustrine records reveal the overall pattern of Holocene lake-level change, the influence of precessional forcing of the South American Summer Monsoon, and the effects of high-frequency climate variability in records of lake productivity and lake ecology. Precessional forcing of regional precipitation is evident in the Lake Titicaca basin as a massive (ca. 85 m) mid-Holocene decline in lake level beginning about 7800 cal yr BP and a subsequent rise in lake level after 4000 cal yr BP. Here we show that multi-decadal to millennial-scale climate variability, superimposed upon the envelope of change at orbital time scales, is similar in timing and pattern to the ice-rafted debris record of Holocene Bond events in the North Atlantic. A high-resolution carbon isotopic record from Lake Titicaca that spans the entire Holocene suggests that cold intervals of Holocene Bond events are periods of increased precipitation, thus indicating an anti-phasing of precipitation variation on the Altiplano relative to the Northern Hemisphere tropics. A similar pattern of variation is also evident in high-resolution (2-30 yr spacing) diatom and geochemical records that span the last 7000 yr from two smaller lakes, Lagos Umayo and Lagunillas, in the Lake Titicaca drainage basin.

  6. Decadal-scale climate drivers for glacial dynamics in Glacier National Park, Montana, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pederson, Gregory T.; Fagre, Daniel B.; Gray, Stephen T.; Graumlich, Lisa J.

    2004-06-01

    Little Ice Age (14th-19th centuries A.D.) glacial maxima and 20th century retreat have been well documented in Glacier National Park, Montana, USA. However, the influence of regional and Pacific Basin driven climate variability on these events is poorly understood. We use tree-ring reconstructions of North Pacific surface temperature anomalies and summer drought as proxies for winter glacial accumulation and summer ablation, respectively, over the past three centuries. These records show that the 1850's glacial maximum was likely produced by ~70 yrs of cool/wet summers coupled with high snowpack. Post 1850, glacial retreat coincides with an extended period (>50 yr) of summer drought and low snowpack culminating in the exceptional events of 1917 to 1941 when retreat rates for some glaciers exceeded 100 m/yr. This research highlights potential local and ocean-based drivers of glacial dynamics, and difficulties in separating the effects of global climate change from regional expressions of decadal-scale climate variability.

  7. Estimates of expansion time scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, E.M.

    1979-01-01

    Monte Carlo simulations of the expansion of a spacefaring civilization show that descendants of that civilization should be found near virtually every useful star in the Galaxy in a time much less than the current age of the Galaxy. Only extreme assumptions about local population growth rates, emigration rates, or ship ranges can slow or halt an expansion. The apparent absence of extraterrestrials from the solar system suggests that no such civilization has arisen in the Galaxy. 1 figure

  8. Stochastic time scale for the Universe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szydlowski, M.; Golda, Z.

    1986-01-01

    An intrinsic time scale is naturally defined within stochastic gradient dynamical systems. It should be interpreted as a ''relaxation time'' to a local potential minimum after the system has been randomly perturbed. It is shown that for a flat Friedman-like cosmological model this time scale is of order of the age of the Universe. 7 refs. (author)

  9. Observations and 3D hydrodynamics-based modeling of decadal-scale shoreline change along the Outer Banks, North Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safak, Ilgar; List, Jeffrey; Warner, John C.; Kumar, Nirnimesh

    2017-01-01

    Long-term decadal-scale shoreline change is an important parameter for quantifying the stability of coastal systems. The decadal-scale coastal change is controlled by processes that occur on short time scales (such as storms) and long-term processes (such as prevailing waves). The ability to predict decadal-scale shoreline change is not well established and the fundamental physical processes controlling this change are not well understood. Here we investigate the processes that create large-scale long-term shoreline change along the Outer Banks of North Carolina, an uninterrupted 60 km stretch of coastline, using both observations and a numerical modeling approach. Shoreline positions for a 24-yr period were derived from aerial photographs of the Outer Banks. Analysis of the shoreline position data showed that, although variable, the shoreline eroded an average of 1.5 m/yr throughout this period. The modeling approach uses a three-dimensional hydrodynamics-based numerical model coupled to a spectral wave model and simulates the full 24-yr time period on a spatial grid running on a short (second scale) time-step to compute the sediment transport patterns. The observations and the model results show similar magnitudes (O(105 m3/yr)) and patterns of alongshore sediment fluxes. Both the observed and the modeled alongshore sediment transport rates have more rapid changes at the north of our section due to continuously curving coastline, and possible effects of alongshore variations in shelf bathymetry. The southern section with a relatively uniform orientation, on the other hand, has less rapid transport rate changes. Alongshore gradients of the modeled sediment fluxes are translated into shoreline change rates that have agreement in some locations but vary in others. Differences between observations and model results are potentially influenced by geologic framework processes not included in the model. Both the observations and the model results show higher rates of

  10. Morphosedimentary evolution of carbonate sandy beaches at decadal scale : case study in Reunion Island , Indian Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahabot, Marie-Myriam; Pennober, Gwenaelle; Suanez, Serge; Troadec, Roland; Delacourt, Christophe

    2017-04-01

    Global change introduce a lot of uncertainties concerning future trajectory of beaches by directly or indirectly modifying major driving factors. An improved understanding of the past shoreline evolution may help for anticipate future coastline response. However, in tropical environment, studies concerning carbonate beaches dynamics are scarce compared to open sandy beaches. Consequently, coral reef protected beaches morphological adjustment is still poorly understood and long-term evolution rate are poorly quantified in these specific environment. In this context, La Reunion Island, insular department of France located in Indian Ocean, constitute a favoured laboratory. This high volcanic island possesses 25 km of carbonate beaches which experience hydrodynamic forcing specific from tropical environment: cyclonic swell during summer and long period swell during winter. Because of degraded coral reef health and high anthropogenic pressure, 50% of the beaches are in erosion since 1970s. Beach survey has been conducted since 1990s by scientist and are now encompassed as pilot site within a French observatory network which guarantee long-term survey with high resolution observational techniques. Thus, La Reunion Island is one of the rare carbonate beach to be surveyed since 20 years. This study aims to examined and quantify beach response at decadal scale on carbonate sandy beaches of Reunion Island. The study focus on 12 km of beaches from Cap Champagne to the Passe de Trois-Bassins. The analyze of 15 beach profile data originated from historical and DGPS beach topographic data confirm long term trend to erosion. Sediment lost varies between 0.5 and 2 m3.yr-1 since 1998. However longshore current have led to accretion of some part of beach compartment with rate of 0.7 to 1.6 m3.yr-1. Wave climate was examined from in-situ measurement over 15 years and show that extreme waves associated with tropical cyclones and long period swell play a major role in beach dynamics

  11. Time scale in quasifission reactions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Back, B.B.; Paul, P.; Nestler, J. [and others

    1995-08-01

    The quasifission process arises from the hindrance of the complete fusion process when heavy-ion beams are used. The strong dissipation in the system tends to prevent fusion and lead the system towards reseparation into two final products of similar mass reminiscent of a fission process. This dissipation slows down the mass transfer and shape transformation and allows for the emission of high energy {gamma}-rays during the process, albeit with a low probability. Giant Dipole {gamma} rays emitted during this time have a characteristic spectral shape and may thus be discerned in the presence of a background of {gamma} rays emitted from the final fission-like fragments. Since the rate of GDR {gamma} emission is very well established, the strength of this component may therefore be used to measure the timescale of the quasifission process. In this experiment we studied the reaction between 368-MeV {sup 58}Ni and a {sup 165}Ho target, where deep inelastic scattering and quasifission processes are dominant. Coincidences between fission fragments (detected in four position-sensitive avalanche detectors) and high energy {gamma} rays (measured in a 10{close_quotes} x 10{close_quotes} actively shielded NaI detector) were registered. Beams were provided by the Stony Brook Superconducting Linac. The {gamma}-ray spectrum associated with deep inelastic scattering events is well reproduced by statistical cooling of projectile and target-like fragments with close to equal initial excitation energy sharing. The y spectrum associated with quasifission events is well described by statistical emission from the fission fragments alone, with only weak evidence for GDR emission from the mono-nucleus. A 1{sigma} limit of t{sub ss} < 11 x 10{sup -21} s is obtained for the mono-nucleus lifetime, which is consistent with the lifetime obtained from quasifission fragment angular distributions. A manuscript was accepted for publication.

  12. Appropriate complexity for the prediction of coastal and estuarine geomorphic behaviour at decadal to centennial scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    French, Jon; Payo, Andres; Murray, Brad; Orford, Julian; Eliot, Matt; Cowell, Peter

    2016-03-01

    Coastal and estuarine landforms provide a physical template that not only accommodates diverse ecosystem functions and human activities, but also mediates flood and erosion risks that are expected to increase with climate change. In this paper, we explore some of the issues associated with the conceptualisation and modelling of coastal morphological change at time and space scales relevant to managers and policy makers. Firstly, we revisit the question of how to define the most appropriate scales at which to seek quantitative predictions of landform change within an age defined by human interference with natural sediment systems and by the prospect of significant changes in climate and ocean forcing. Secondly, we consider the theoretical bases and conceptual frameworks for determining which processes are most important at a given scale of interest and the related problem of how to translate this understanding into models that are computationally feasible, retain a sound physical basis and demonstrate useful predictive skill. In particular, we explore the limitations of a primary scale approach and the extent to which these can be resolved with reference to the concept of the coastal tract and application of systems theory. Thirdly, we consider the importance of different styles of landform change and the need to resolve not only incremental evolution of morphology but also changes in the qualitative dynamics of a system and/or its gross morphological configuration. The extreme complexity and spatially distributed nature of landform systems means that quantitative prediction of future changes must necessarily be approached through mechanistic modelling of some form or another. Geomorphology has increasingly embraced so-called 'reduced complexity' models as a means of moving from an essentially reductionist focus on the mechanics of sediment transport towards a more synthesist view of landform evolution. However, there is little consensus on exactly what constitutes

  13. Some nonlinear dynamic inequalities on time scales

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    In 1988, Stefan Hilger [10] introduced the calculus on time scales which unifies continuous and discrete analysis. Since then many authors have expounded on various aspects of the theory of dynamic equations on time scales. Recently, there has been much research activity concerning the new theory. For example, we ...

  14. Multiple time scale methods in tokamak magnetohydrodynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jardin, S.C.

    1984-01-01

    Several methods are discussed for integrating the magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equations in tokamak systems on other than the fastest time scale. The dynamical grid method for simulating ideal MHD instabilities utilizes a natural nonorthogonal time-dependent coordinate transformation based on the magnetic field lines. The coordinate transformation is chosen to be free of the fast time scale motion itself, and to yield a relatively simple scalar equation for the total pressure, P = p + B 2 /2μ 0 , which can be integrated implicitly to average over the fast time scale oscillations. Two methods are described for the resistive time scale. The zero-mass method uses a reduced set of two-fluid transport equations obtained by expanding in the inverse magnetic Reynolds number, and in the small ratio of perpendicular to parallel mobilities and thermal conductivities. The momentum equation becomes a constraint equation that forces the pressure and magnetic fields and currents to remain in force balance equilibrium as they evolve. The large mass method artificially scales up the ion mass and viscosity, thereby reducing the severe time scale disparity between wavelike and diffusionlike phenomena, but not changing the resistive time scale behavior. Other methods addressing the intermediate time scales are discussed

  15. Uniform Statistical Convergence on Time Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yavuz Altin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We will introduce the concept of m- and (λ,m-uniform density of a set and m- and (λ,m-uniform statistical convergence on an arbitrary time scale. However, we will define m-uniform Cauchy function on a time scale. Furthermore, some relations about these new notions are also obtained.

  16. An 1800-yr record of decadal-scale hydroclimatic variability in the upper Arkansas River basin from bristlecone pine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodhouse, C.A.; Pederson, G.T.; Gray, S.T.

    2011-01-01

    Bristlecone pine trees are exceptionally long-lived, and with the incorporation of remnant material have been used to construct multi-millennial length ring-width chronologies. These chronologies can provide valuable information about past temperature and moisture variability. In this study, we outline a method to build a moisture-sensitive bristlecone chronology and assess the robustness and consistency of this sensitivity over the past 1200. yr using new reconstructions of Arkansas River flow (AD 1275-2002 and 1577-2002) and the summer Palmer Drought Sensitivity Index. The chronology, a composite built from parts of three collections in the central Rocky Mountains, is a proxy for decadal-scale moisture variability for the past 18 centuries. Since the sample size is small in some portions of the time series, the chronology should be considered preliminary; the timing and duration of drought events are likely the most robust characteristics. This chronology suggests that the region experienced increased aridity during the medieval period, as did much of western North America, but that the timing and duration of drought episodes within this period were somewhat different from those in other western locations, such as the upper Colorado River basin. ?? 2010 University of Washington.

  17. Time Scale in Least Square Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Özgür Yeniay

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Study of dynamic equations in time scale is a new area in mathematics. Time scale tries to build a bridge between real numbers and integers. Two derivatives in time scale have been introduced and called as delta and nabla derivative. Delta derivative concept is defined as forward direction, and nabla derivative concept is defined as backward direction. Within the scope of this study, we consider the method of obtaining parameters of regression equation of integer values through time scale. Therefore, we implemented least squares method according to derivative definition of time scale and obtained coefficients related to the model. Here, there exist two coefficients originating from forward and backward jump operators relevant to the same model, which are different from each other. Occurrence of such a situation is equal to total number of values of vertical deviation between regression equations and observation values of forward and backward jump operators divided by two. We also estimated coefficients for the model using ordinary least squares method. As a result, we made an introduction to least squares method on time scale. We think that time scale theory would be a new vision in least square especially when assumptions of linear regression are violated.

  18. Water Stress on U.S. Power Production at Decadal Time Horizons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ganguly, Auroop R. [Northeastern Univ., Boston, MA (United States). Sustainability and Data Sciences Lab.. Civil and Environmental Engineering Dept.; Ganguli, Poulomi [Northeastern Univ., Boston, MA (United States). Sustainability and Data Sciences Lab.; Kumar, Devashish [Northeastern Univ., Boston, MA (United States). Sustainability and Data Sciences Lab.

    2014-09-01

    Thermoelectric power production at risk, owing to current and projected water scarcity and rising stream temperatures, is assessed for the contiguous United States at decadal scales. Regional water scarcity is driven by climate variability and change, as well as by multi-sector water demand. While a planning horizon of zero to about thirty years is occasionally prescribed by stakeholders, the challenges to risk assessment at these scales include the difficulty in delineating decadal climate trends from intrinsic natural or multiple model variability. Current generation global climate or earth system models are not credible at the spatial resolutions of power plants, especially for surface water quantity and stream temperatures, which further exacerbates the assessment challenge. Population changes, which are difficult to project, cannot serve as adequate proxies for changes in the water demand across sectors. The hypothesis that robust assessments of power production at risk are possible, despite the uncertainties, has been examined as a proof of concept. An approach is presented for delineating water scarcity and temperature from climate models, observations and population storylines, as well as for assessing power production at risk by examining geospatial correlations of power plant locations within regions where the usable water supply for energy production happens to be scarcer and warmer. Our analyses showed that in the near term, more than 200 counties are likely to be exposed to water scarcity in the next three decades. Further, we noticed that stream gauges in more than five counties in the 2030s and ten counties in the 2040s showed a significant increase in water temperature, which exceeded the power plant effluent temperature threshold set by the EPA. Power plants in South Carolina, Louisiana, and Texas are likely to be vulnerable owing to climate driven water stresses. In all, our analysis suggests that under various combinations of plausible climate

  19. Centennial-scale climate change from decadally-paced explosive volcanism: a coupled sea ice-ocean mechanism

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhong, Y. [University of Colorado, INSTAAR, Boulder, CO (United States); Miller, G.H. [University of Colorado, INSTAAR, Boulder, CO (United States); University of Colorado, Department of Geological Sciences, Boulder, CO (United States); Otto-Bliesner, B.L.; Holland, M.M.; Bailey, D.A. [NCAR, Boulder, CO (United States); Schneider, D.P. [NCAR, Boulder, CO (United States); University of Colorado, CIRES, Boulder, CO (United States); Geirsdottir, A. [University of Iceland, Department of Earth Sciences and Institute of Earth Sciences, Reykjavik (Iceland)

    2011-12-15

    Northern Hemisphere summer cooling through the Holocene is largely driven by the steady decrease in summer insolation tied to the precession of the equinoxes. However, centennial-scale climate departures, such as the Little Ice Age, must be caused by other forcings, most likely explosive volcanism and changes in solar irradiance. Stratospheric volcanic aerosols have the stronger forcing, but their short residence time likely precludes a lasting climate impact from a single eruption. Decadally paced explosive volcanism may produce a greater climate impact because the long response time of ocean surface waters allows for a cumulative decrease in sea-surface temperatures that exceeds that of any single eruption. Here we use a global climate model to evaluate the potential long-term climate impacts from four decadally paced large tropical eruptions. Direct forcing results in a rapid expansion of Arctic Ocean sea ice that persists throughout the eruption period. The expanded sea ice increases the flux of sea ice exported to the northern North Atlantic long enough that it reduces the convective warming of surface waters in the subpolar North Atlantic. In two of our four simulations the cooler surface waters being advected into the Arctic Ocean reduced the rate of basal sea-ice melt in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic Ocean, allowing sea ice to remain in an expanded state for > 100 model years after volcanic aerosols were removed from the stratosphere. In these simulations the coupled sea ice-ocean mechanism maintains the strong positive feedbacks of an expanded Arctic Ocean sea ice cover, allowing the initial cooling related to the direct effect of volcanic aerosols to be perpetuated, potentially resulting in a centennial-scale or longer change of state in Arctic climate. The fact that the sea ice-ocean mechanism was not established in two of our four simulations suggests that a long-term sea ice response to volcanic forcing is sensitive to the stability of the seawater

  20. Decadal-scale thermohaline variability in the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Hutchinson, K

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available . This AGEM has improved accuracy compared to traditional climatologies and other proxy methods. The AGEM for the Atlantic Southern Ocean offers an ideal technique to investigate the thermohaline variability over the past two decades in a key region for water...

  1. Hardy type inequalities on time scales

    CERN Document Server

    Agarwal, Ravi P; Saker, Samir H

    2016-01-01

    The book is devoted to dynamic inequalities of Hardy type and extensions and generalizations via convexity on a time scale T. In particular, the book contains the time scale versions of classical Hardy type inequalities, Hardy and Littlewood type inequalities, Hardy-Knopp type inequalities via convexity, Copson type inequalities, Copson-Beesack type inequalities, Liendeler type inequalities, Levinson type inequalities and Pachpatte type inequalities, Bennett type inequalities, Chan type inequalities, and Hardy type inequalities with two different weight functions. These dynamic inequalities contain the classical continuous and discrete inequalities as special cases when T = R and T = N and can be extended to different types of inequalities on different time scales such as T = hN, h > 0, T = qN for q > 1, etc.In this book the authors followed the history and development of these inequalities. Each section in self-contained and one can see the relationship between the time scale versions of the inequalities and...

  2. Steffensen's Integral Inequality on Time Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ozkan Umut Mutlu

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available We establish generalizations of Steffensen's integral inequality on time scales via the diamond- dynamic integral, which is defined as a linear combination of the delta and nabla integrals.

  3. JY1 time scale: a new Kalman-filter time scale designed at NIST

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yao, Jian; Parker, Thomas E; Levine, Judah

    2017-01-01

    We report on a new Kalman-filter hydrogen-maser time scale (i.e. JY1 time scale) designed at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). The JY1 time scale is composed of a few hydrogen masers and a commercial Cs clock. The Cs clock is used as a reference clock to ease operations with existing data. Unlike other time scales, the JY1 time scale uses three basic time-scale equations, instead of only one equation. Also, this time scale can detect a clock error (i.e. time error, frequency error, or frequency drift error) automatically. These features make the JY1 time scale stiff and less likely to be affected by an abnormal clock. Tests show that the JY1 time scale deviates from the UTC by less than  ±5 ns for ∼100 d, when the time scale is initially aligned to the UTC and then is completely free running. Once the time scale is steered to a Cs fountain, it can maintain the time with little error even if the Cs fountain stops working for tens of days. This can be helpful when we do not have a continuously operated fountain or when the continuously operated fountain accidentally stops, or when optical clocks run occasionally. (paper)

  4. Mouse Activity across Time Scales: Fractal Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, G. Z. dos Santos; Lobão-Soares, B.; do Nascimento, G. C.; França, Arthur S. C.; Muratori, L.; Ribeiro, S.; Corso, G.

    2014-01-01

    In this work we devise a classification of mouse activity patterns based on accelerometer data using Detrended Fluctuation Analysis. We use two characteristic mouse behavioural states as benchmarks in this study: waking in free activity and slow-wave sleep (SWS). In both situations we find roughly the same pattern: for short time intervals we observe high correlation in activity - a typical 1/f complex pattern - while for large time intervals there is anti-correlation. High correlation of short intervals ( to : waking state and to : SWS) is related to highly coordinated muscle activity. In the waking state we associate high correlation both to muscle activity and to mouse stereotyped movements (grooming, waking, etc.). On the other side, the observed anti-correlation over large time scales ( to : waking state and to : SWS) during SWS appears related to a feedback autonomic response. The transition from correlated regime at short scales to an anti-correlated regime at large scales during SWS is given by the respiratory cycle interval, while during the waking state this transition occurs at the time scale corresponding to the duration of the stereotyped mouse movements. Furthermore, we find that the waking state is characterized by longer time scales than SWS and by a softer transition from correlation to anti-correlation. Moreover, this soft transition in the waking state encompass a behavioural time scale window that gives rise to a multifractal pattern. We believe that the observed multifractality in mouse activity is formed by the integration of several stereotyped movements each one with a characteristic time correlation. Finally, we compare scaling properties of body acceleration fluctuation time series during sleep and wake periods for healthy mice. Interestingly, differences between sleep and wake in the scaling exponents are comparable to previous works regarding human heartbeat. Complementarily, the nature of these sleep-wake dynamics could lead to a better

  5. Time trends in recurrence of juvenile nasopharyngeal angiofibroma: Experience of the past 4 decades.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, Anupam; Mishra, Subhash Chandra

    2016-01-01

    An analysis of time distribution of juvenile nasopharyngeal angiofibroma (JNA) from the last 4 decades is presented. Sixty recurrences were analyzed as per actuarial survival. SPSS software was used to generate Kaplan-Meier (KM) curves and time distributions were compared by Log-rank, Breslow and Tarone-Ware test. The overall recurrence rate was 17.59%. Majority underwent open transpalatal approach(es) without embolization. The probability of detecting a recurrence was 95% in first 24months and comparison of KM curves of 4 different time periods was not significant. This is the first and largest series to address the time-distribution. The required follow up period is 2years. Our recurrence is just half of the largest series (reported so far) suggesting the superiority of transpalatal techniques. The similarity of curves suggests less likelihood for recent technical advances to influence the recurrence that as per our hypothesis is more likely to reflect tumor biology per se. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Multivariable dynamic calculus on time scales

    CERN Document Server

    Bohner, Martin

    2016-01-01

    This book offers the reader an overview of recent developments of multivariable dynamic calculus on time scales, taking readers beyond the traditional calculus texts. Covering topics from parameter-dependent integrals to partial differentiation on time scales, the book’s nine pedagogically oriented chapters provide a pathway to this active area of research that will appeal to students and researchers in mathematics and the physical sciences. The authors present a clear and well-organized treatment of the concept behind the mathematics and solution techniques, including many practical examples and exercises.

  7. A Quaternary Geomagnetic Instability Time Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singer, B. S.

    2013-12-01

    Reversals and excursions of Earth's geomagnetic field create marker horizons that are readily detected in sedimentary and volcanic rocks worldwide. An accurate and precise chronology of these geomagnetic field instabilities is fundamental to understanding several aspects of Quaternary climate, dynamo processes, and surface processes. For example, stratigraphic correlation between marine sediment and polar ice records of climate change across the cryospheres benefits from a highly resolved record of reversals and excursions. The temporal patterns of dynamo behavior may reflect physical interactions between the molten outer core and the solid inner core or lowermost mantle. These interactions may control reversal frequency and shape the weak magnetic fields that arise during successive dynamo instabilities. Moreover, weakening of the axial dipole during reversals and excursions enhances the production of cosmogenic isotopes that are used in sediment and ice core stratigraphy and surface exposure dating. The Geomagnetic Instability Time Scale (GITS) is based on the direct dating of transitional polarity states recorded by lava flows using the 40Ar/39Ar method, in parallel with astrochronologic age models of marine sediments in which O isotope and magnetic records have been obtained. A review of data from Quaternary lava flows and sediments yields a GITS comprising 10 polarity reversals and 27 excursions during the past 2.6 million years. Nine of the ten reversals bounding chrons and subchrons are associated with 40Ar/39Ar ages of transitionally-magnetized lava flows. The tenth, the Guass-Matuyama chron boundary, is tightly bracketed by 40Ar/39Ar dated ash deposits. Of the 27 well-documented excursions, 14 occurred during the Matuyama chron and 13 during the Brunhes chron; 19 have been dated directly using the 40Ar/39Ar method on transitionally-magnetized volcanic rocks and form the backbone of the GITS. Excursions are clearly not the rare phenomena once thought

  8. Decadal-scale changes of dinoflagellates and diatoms in the anomalous baltic sea spring bloom.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riina Klais

    Full Text Available The algal spring bloom in the Baltic Sea represents an anomaly from the winter-spring bloom patterns worldwide in terms of frequent and recurring dominance of dinoflagellates over diatoms. Analysis of approximately 3500 spring bloom samples from the Baltic Sea monitoring programs revealed (i that within the major basins the proportion of dinoflagellates varied from 0.1 (Kattegat to >0.8 (central Baltic Proper, and (ii substantial shifts (e.g. from 0.2 to 0.6 in the Gulf of Finland in the dinoflagellate proportion over four decades. During a recent decade (1995-2004 the proportion of dinoflagellates increased relative to diatoms mostly in the northernmost basins (Gulf of Bothnia, from 0.1 to 0.4 and in the Gulf of Finland, (0.4 to 0.6 which are typically ice-covered areas. We hypothesize that in coastal areas a specific sequence of seasonal events, involving wintertime mixing and resuspension of benthic cysts, followed by proliferation in stratified thin layers under melting ice, favors successful seeding and accumulation of dense dinoflagellate populations over diatoms. This head-start of dinoflagellates by the onset of the spring bloom is decisive for successful competition with the faster growing diatoms. Massive cyst formation and spreading of cyst beds fuel the expanding and ever larger dinoflagellate blooms in the relatively shallow coastal waters. Shifts in the dominant spring bloom algal groups can have significant effects on major elemental fluxes and functioning of the Baltic Sea ecosystem, but also in the vast shelves and estuaries at high latitudes, where ice-associated cold-water dinoflagellates successfully compete with diatoms.

  9. A multi-decade time series of kelp forest community structure at San Nicolas Island, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lafferty, Kevin D.; Kenner, Michael C.; Estes, James A.; Tinker, M. Tim; Bodkin, James L.; Cowen, Robert K.; Harrold, Christopher; Novak, Mark; Rassweiler, Andrew; Reed, Daniel C.

    2013-01-01

    San Nicolas Island is surrounded by broad areas of shallow subtidal habitat, characterized by dynamic kelp forest communities that undergo dramatic and abrupt shifts in community composition. Although these reefs are fished, the physical isolation of the island means that they receive less impact from human activities than most reefs in Southern California, making San Nicolas an ideal place to evaluate alternative theories about the dynamics of these communities. Here we present monitoring data from seven sampling stations surrounding the island, including data on fish, invertebrate, and algal abundance. These data are unusual among subtidal monitoring data sets in that they combine relatively frequent sampling (twice per year) with an exceptionally long time series (since 1980). Other outstanding qualities of the data set are the high taxonomic resolution captured and the monitoring of permanent quadrats and swaths where the history of the community structure at specific locations has been recorded through time. Finally, the data span a period that includes two of the strongest ENSO events on record, a major shift in the Pacific decadal oscillation, and the reintroduction of sea otters to the island in 1987 after at least 150 years of absence. These events provide opportunities to evaluate the effects of bottom-up forcing, top-down control, and physical disturbance on shallow rocky reef communities.

  10. Decadal to century‐scale sediment dynamics in the Rhine delta

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hobo, N.; Middelkoop, H.; Makaske, B.; Kleinhans, M.G.

    2011-01-01

    The sedimentary dynamics of a lowland river system can be defined as the whole of processes that involve erosion, transport or deposition of sediment in the system – including the floodplains – on every possible spatial and temporal scale. The sedimentary dynamics of the river Rhine in the

  11. Time scales in tidal disruption events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krolik J.

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available We explore the temporal structure of tidal disruption events pointing out the corresponding transitions in the lightcurves of the thermal accretion disk and of the jet emerging from such events. The hydrodynamic time scale of the disrupted star is the minimal time scale of building up the accretion disk and the jet and it sets a limit on the rise time. This suggest that Swift J1644+57, that shows several flares with a rise time as short as a few hundred seconds could not have arisen from a tidal disruption of a main sequence star whose hydrodynamic time is a few hours. The disrupted object must have been a white dwarf. A second important time scale is the Eddington time in which the accretion rate changes form super to sub Eddington. It is possible that such a transition was observed in the light curve of Swift J2058+05. If correct this provides interesting constraints on the parameters of the system.

  12. Large-Scale Processes Associated with Inter-Decadal and Inter-Annual Early Spring Rainfall Variability in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jau-Ming Chen

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Early spring (March - April rainfall in Taiwan exhibits evident and distinct inter-annual and inter-decadal variability. The inter-annual varibility has a positive correlation with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation while the inter-decadal variability features a phase change beginning in the late 1970s, coherent with the major phase change in the Pacific decadal oscillation. Rainfall variability in both timescales is regulated by large-scale processes showing consistent dynamic features. Rainfall increases are associated with positive sea surface temperature (SST anomalies in the tropical eastern Pacific and negative SST anomalies in the tropical central Pacific. An anomalous lower-level divergent center appears in the tropical central Pacific. Via a Rossby-wave-like response, an anomalous lower-level anticyclone appears to the southeast of Taiwan over the Philippine Sea-tropical western Pacific region, which is accompanied by an anomalous cyclone to the north-northeast of Taiwan. Both circulation anomalies induce anomalous southwesterly flows to enhance moisture flux from the South China Sea onto Taiwan, resulting in significant moisture convergence nearby Taiwan. With enhanced moisture supplied by anomalous southwesterly flows, significant rainfall increases occur in both inter-annual and inter-decadal timescales in early spring rainfall on Taiwan.

  13. The Second Noether Theorem on Time Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agnieszka B. Malinowska

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We extend the second Noether theorem to variational problems on time scales. As corollaries we obtain the classical second Noether theorem, the second Noether theorem for the h-calculus and the second Noether theorem for the q-calculus.

  14. Structure of Student Time Management Scale (STMS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balamurugan, M.

    2013-01-01

    With the aim of constructing a Student Time Management Scale (STMS), the initial version was administered and data were collected from 523 standard eleventh students. (Mean age = 15.64). The data obtained were subjected to Reliability and Factor analysis using PASW Statistical software version 18. From 42 items 14 were dropped, resulting in the…

  15. Some Nonlinear Dynamic Inequalities on Time Scales

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The aim of this paper is to investigate some nonlinear dynamic inequalities on time scales, which provide explicit bounds on unknown functions. The inequalities given here unify and extend some inequalities in (B G Pachpatte, On some new inequalities related to a certain inequality arising in the theory of differential ...

  16. Decadal scale droughts over northwestern Thailand over the past 448 years: links to the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean sectors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buckley, Brendan M. [Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Tree-Ring Laboratory, Palisades, NY (United States); Palakit, Kritsadapan; Duangsathaporn, Khwanchai [Kasetsart University Faculty of Forestry, Laboratory of Tropical Dendrochronology, Bangkok (Thailand); Sanguantham, Prasong; Prasomsin, Patsi [Kasetsart University Faculty of Forestry, Department of Forest Management, Bangkok (Thailand)

    2007-07-15

    A 448-year teak chronology from northwestern Thailand is used to assess past changes in the strength of the summer monsoon. The chronology is based on 30 living trees that extend from 1604 to 2005, and a 47-stump chronology that spans from 1558 to 1903. We used methods of cross dating and chronology building that address problems specifically found in teak. The result is a robust chronology with strong signal strength back to 1600 ad, and with variability retained at the multi-decadal scale. Variability in annual growth in teak from this area is dependent on rainfall and soil moisture availability at both the beginning and end of the monsoon season as confirmed by comparisons with temperature, rainfall and PDSI data. These correlation analyses confirm that our record is a proxy for summer monsoon strength and/or duration, and highlight the importance of soil moisture availability in the seasons of transition. The chronology reveals two prominent periods of decadal-scale drought in the early and mid 1700s that correspond to persistently warm sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific as derived from Galapagos Island coral records. Speleothem data from central India also indicate protracted periods of drought for the 1700s. While these broad-scale eighteenth-century persistent droughts may be related to protracted El Nino-like conditions in the tropical Pacific, regional climate forcing over the Indian Ocean and western Pacific sectors appears to be a strong contributor as well. Spectral analyses reveal power in the ENSO range of variability from 2.2 to 4 years, and at the multi-decadal scale at 48.5 years. (orig.)

  17. The Biogeochemical Response to Inter-decadal Atmospheric Forcing Across Watershed Scales in Canada's Subarctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spence, C.

    2016-12-01

    Rapid landscape changes in the circumpolar north have been documented, including degradation of permafrost and alteration of vegetation communities. These are widely expected to have profound impacts on the freshwater fluxes of solutes, carbon and nitrogen across the Arctic domain. However, there have been few attempts to document trends across the diversity of landscapes in the circumpolar north, mostly due to a dearth of long term data. Some of the fastest rates of warming over the last thirty years have occurred in Canada's Northwest Territories, so this region should already exhibit changes in aquatic chemistry. Observations of chemical loads in streams draining the ice-poor discontinuous permafrost subarctic Canadian Shield region were analyzed with the goal of determining how basins across scales have responded to changes in atmospheric forcing. Smaller streams, with much closer linkages to terrestrial processes, experienced a synchrony among hydrological and biogeochemical processes that enhanced chemical flux above that in their larger counterparts. This demonstrates that there are differences in resiliency and resistance across scales to climate change. These results highlight the importance of biogeochemical process understanding to properly explain and predict how chemical loading scales from headwaters to river mouths. This is important information if society is to properly adapt policies for effluent discharge, nearshore marine management, among others.

  18. Time dependency of the prediction skill for the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in initialized decadal hindcasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brune, Sebastian; Düsterhus, André; Pohlmann, Holger; Müller, Wolfgang A.; Baehr, Johanna

    2017-11-01

    We analyze the time dependency of decadal hindcast skill in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre within the time period 1961-2013. We compare anomaly correlation coefficients and temporal interquartile ranges of total upper ocean heat content and sea surface temperature for three differently initialized sets of hindcast simulations with the global coupled model MPI-ESM. All initializations use weakly coupled assimilation with the same full value nudging in the atmospheric component and different assimilation techniques for oceanic temperature and salinity: (1) ensemble Kalman filter assimilating EN4 observations and HadISST data, (2) nudging of anomalies to ORAS4 reanalysis, (3) nudging of full values to ORAS4 reanalysis. We find that hindcast skill depends strongly on the evaluation time period, with higher hindcast skill during strong multiyear trends, especially during the warming in the 1990s and lower hindcast skill in the absence of such trends. Differences between the prediction systems are more pronounced when investigating any 20-year subperiod within the entire hindcast period. In the ensemble Kalman filter initialized hindcasts, we find significant correlation skill for up to 5-8 lead years, albeit along with an overestimation of the temporal interquartile range. In the hindcasts initialized by anomaly nudging, significant correlation skill for lead years greater than two is only found in the 1980s and 1990s. In the hindcasts initialized by full value nudging, correlation skill is consistently lower than in the hindcasts initialized by anomaly nudging in the first lead years with re-emerging skill thereafter. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation reacts on the density changes introduced by oceanic nudging, this limits the predictability in the subpolar gyre in the first lead years. Overall, we find that a model-consistent assimilation technique can improve hindcast skill. Further, the evaluation of 20 year subperiods within the full hindcast period

  19. Limited impact on decadal-scale climate change from increased use of natural gas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McJeon, Haewon; Edmonds, Jae; Bauer, Nico; Clarke, Leon; Fisher, Brian; Flannery, Brian P; Hilaire, Jérôme; Krey, Volker; Marangoni, Giacomo; Mi, Raymond; Riahi, Keywan; Rogner, Holger; Tavoni, Massimo

    2014-10-23

    The most important energy development of the past decade has been the wide deployment of hydraulic fracturing technologies that enable the production of previously uneconomic shale gas resources in North America. If these advanced gas production technologies were to be deployed globally, the energy market could see a large influx of economically competitive unconventional gas resources. The climate implications of such abundant natural gas have been hotly debated. Some researchers have observed that abundant natural gas substituting for coal could reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Others have reported that the non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions associated with shale gas production make its lifecycle emissions higher than those of coal. Assessment of the full impact of abundant gas on climate change requires an integrated approach to the global energy-economy-climate systems, but the literature has been limited in either its geographic scope or its coverage of greenhouse gases. Here we show that market-driven increases in global supplies of unconventional natural gas do not discernibly reduce the trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions or climate forcing. Our results, based on simulations from five state-of-the-art integrated assessment models of energy-economy-climate systems independently forced by an abundant gas scenario, project large additional natural gas consumption of up to +170 per cent by 2050. The impact on CO2 emissions, however, is found to be much smaller (from -2 per cent to +11 per cent), and a majority of the models reported a small increase in climate forcing (from -0.3 per cent to +7 per cent) associated with the increased use of abundant gas. Our results show that although market penetration of globally abundant gas may substantially change the future energy system, it is not necessarily an effective substitute for climate change mitigation policy.

  20. Stability theory for dynamic equations on time scales

    CERN Document Server

    Martynyuk, Anatoly A

    2016-01-01

    This monograph is a first in the world to present three approaches for stability analysis of solutions of dynamic equations. The first approach is based on the application of dynamic integral inequalities and the fundamental matrix of solutions of linear approximation of dynamic equations. The second is based on the generalization of the direct Lyapunovs method for equations on time scales, using scalar, vector and matrix-valued auxiliary functions. The third approach is the application of auxiliary functions (scalar, vector, or matrix-valued ones) in combination with differential dynamic inequalities. This is an alternative comparison method, developed for time continuous and time discrete systems. In recent decades, automatic control theory in the study of air- and spacecraft dynamics and in other areas of modern applied mathematics has encountered problems in the analysis of the behavior of solutions of time continuous-discrete linear and/or nonlinear equations of perturbed motion. In the book “Men of Ma...

  1. Special Issue on Time Scale Algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-01-01

    unclassified Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8-98) Prescribed by ANSI Std Z39-18 IOP PUBLISHING METROLOGIA Metrologia 45 (2008) doi:10.1088/0026-1394/45/6/E01...special issue of Metrologia presents selected papers from the Fifth International Time Scale Algorithm Symposium (VITSAS), including some of the...scientists, and hosted by the Real Instituto y Observatorio de la Armada (ROA) in San Fernando, Spain, whose staff further enhanced their nation’s high

  2. Current relaxation time scales in toroidal plasmas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mikkelsen, D.R.

    1987-02-01

    An approximate normal mode analysis of plasma current diffusion in tokamaks is presented. The work is based on numerical solutions of the current diffusion equation in cylindrical geometry. Eigenvalues and eigenfunctions are shown for a broad range of plasma conductivity profile shapes. Three classes of solutions are considered which correspond to three types of tokamak operation. Convenient approximations to the three lowest eigenvalues in each class are presented and simple formulae for the current relaxation time scales are given

  3. Three decades of TBT contamination in sediments around a large scale shipyard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Nam Sook; Shim, Won Joon; Yim, Un Hyuk; Ha, Sung Yong; An, Joon Geon; Shin, Kyung Hoon

    2011-08-30

    Tributyltin (TBT) contamination in sediments was investigated in the vicinity of a large-scale shipyard in the years after the implementation of a total ban on the use of TBT based antifouling paints in Korea. Extremely high level of TBT (36,292ng Sn/g) in surface sediment was found at a station in front of a drydock and near surface runoff outfall of the shipyard. TBT concentration in surface sediments of Gohyeon Bay, where the shipyard is located, showed an apparent decreased TBT concentration gradient from the shipyard towards the outer bay. The vertical distribution of TBT contamination derived from a sediment core analysis demonstrated a significant positive correlation (r(2)=0.88; pTBT concentrations at six stations surveyed before (2003) and seven years after (2010) the total ban showed no significant differences (p>0.05). Despite the ban on the use of TBT, including ocean going vessels, surface sediments are still being heavily contaminated with TBT, and its levels well exceeded the sediment quality guideline or screening values. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Liquidity crises on different time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corradi, Francesco; Zaccaria, Andrea; Pietronero, Luciano

    2015-12-01

    We present an empirical analysis of the microstructure of financial markets and, in particular, of the static and dynamic properties of liquidity. We find that on relatively large time scales (15 min) large price fluctuations are connected to the failure of the subtle mechanism of compensation between the flows of market and limit orders: in other words, the missed revelation of the latent order book breaks the dynamical equilibrium between the flows, triggering the large price jumps. On smaller time scales (30 s), instead, the static depletion of the limit order book is an indicator of an intrinsic fragility of the system, which is related to a strongly nonlinear enhancement of the response. In order to quantify this phenomenon we introduce a measure of the liquidity imbalance present in the book and we show that it is correlated to both the sign and the magnitude of the next price movement. These findings provide a quantitative definition of the effective liquidity, which proves to be strongly dependent on the considered time scales.

  5. Multidimensional scaling of musical time estimations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cocenas-Silva, Raquel; Bueno, José Lino Oliveira; Molin, Paul; Bigand, Emmanuel

    2011-06-01

    The aim of this study was to identify the psycho-musical factors that govern time evaluation in Western music from baroque, classic, romantic, and modern repertoires. The excerpts were previously found to represent variability in musical properties and to induce four main categories of emotions. 48 participants (musicians and nonmusicians) freely listened to 16 musical excerpts (lasting 20 sec. each) and grouped those that seemed to have the same duration. Then, participants associated each group of excerpts to one of a set of sine wave tones varying in duration from 16 to 24 sec. Multidimensional scaling analysis generated a two-dimensional solution for these time judgments. Musical excerpts with high arousal produced an overestimation of time, and affective valence had little influence on time perception. The duration was also overestimated when tempo and loudness were higher, and to a lesser extent, timbre density. In contrast, musical tension had little influence.

  6. uncertain dynamic systems on time scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Lakshmikantham

    1995-01-01

    Full Text Available A basic feedback control problem is that of obtaining some desired stability property from a system which contains uncertainties due to unknown inputs into the system. Despite such imperfect knowledge in the selected mathematical model, we often seek to devise controllers that will steer the system in a certain required fashion. Various classes of controllers whose design is based on the method of Lyapunov are known for both discrete [4], [10], [15], and continuous [3–9], [11] models described by difference and differential equations, respectively. Recently, a theory for what is known as dynamic systems on time scales has been built which incorporates both continuous and discrete times, namely, time as an arbitrary closed sets of reals, and allows us to handle both systems simultaneously [1], [2], [12], [13]. This theory permits one to get some insight into and better understanding of the subtle differences between discrete and continuous systems. We shall, in this paper, utilize the framework of the theory of dynamic systems on time scales to investigate the stability properties of conditionally invariant sets which are then applied to discuss controlled systems with uncertain elements. For the notion of conditionally invariant set and its stability properties, see [14]. Our results offer a new approach to the problem in question.

  7. Time-Scale Invariant Audio Data Embedding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mansour Mohamed F

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available We propose a novel algorithm for high-quality data embedding in audio. The algorithm is based on changing the relative length of the middle segment between two successive maximum and minimum peaks to embed data. Spline interpolation is used to change the lengths. To ensure smooth monotonic behavior between peaks, a hybrid orthogonal and nonorthogonal wavelet decomposition is used prior to data embedding. The possible data embedding rates are between 20 and 30 bps. However, for practical purposes, we use repetition codes, and the effective embedding data rate is around 5 bps. The algorithm is invariant after time-scale modification, time shift, and time cropping. It gives high-quality output and is robust to mp3 compression.

  8. Decadal-scale coastal cliff retreat in southern and central California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, Adam P.

    2018-01-01

    Airborne LiDAR data collected in 1998 and 2009-2010 were used to measure coastal cliff erosion and retreat between the Mexico/California border and Bodega Head, California. Cliff erosion was detected along 44% of the 595 km of shoreline evaluated, while the remaining cliffs were relatively stable. The mean cliff top retreat rate was 0.12 m/yr, while mean retreat averaged over the entire cliff face was 0.04 m/yr. The maximum cliff top and face retreat rates were 4.2 and 3.8 m/yr, respectively. Historical ( 1930s to 1998) and recent retreat rates were significantly inversely correlated for areas with large historical or recent cliff retreat, such that locations with elevated historical retreat had low levels of recent retreat and locations with elevated recent retreat were preceded by low rates of historical retreat. The strength of this inverse correlation increased with cliff change magnitudes up to r2 of 0.91 for cliff top retreat rates > 2.9 m/yr. Mean recent retreat rates were 52-83% lower than mean historical retreat rates. Although beaches can protect cliffs against wave-driven erosion, cliffs fronted by beaches retreated 49% more than cliffs without beaches. On average, unarmored cliff faces retreated 0.05 m/yr between 1998 and 2009-2010, about three times faster than artificially armored cliffs. Alongshore metrics of wave-cliff impact, precipitation, and cliff hardness were generally not well correlated with recent cliff changes. A cliff hazard metric is used to detect cliff steepening and areas prone to future cliff top failures.

  9. Resuspension. Decadal monitoring time series of the anthropogenic radioactivity deposition in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Igarashi, Yasuhito; Aoyama, Michio; Hirose, Katsumi; Miyao, Takashi; Nemoto, Kazuhiro; Tomita, Masatoshi; Fujikawa, Takashi

    2003-01-01

    Monthly atmospheric depositions of 90 Sr and 137 Cs have been observed at the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI), Tsukuba, Japan. This study reports temporal trends and levels of 90 Sr and 137 Cs depositions in the 1990s. Although the current 90 Sr and 137 Cs concentrations declined dramatically, they have been found continuously in the deposition samples throughout the 1990s. During this period, the annual 90 Sr ( 137 Cs) deposits at MRI ranged from 70-180 (140-350) mBq/m 2 /year. With a sufficiently long time series, the decreasing trend of the deposition evidently differs from the past stratospheric fallout; it is far slower. Thus, reservoirs other than the stratosphere provide small amounts of 90 Sr and 137 Cs to the atmosphere. A simple calculation clearly refutes the significance of the ocean as a potential source of airborne anthropogenic radioactivity. We will demonstrate that these radionuclides in the deposited materials originate from resuspension processes (soil dust suspension processes). The temporal trends of the time series monitoring reveal differences from those in the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) Report 2000, which were predicted by a model that disregarded resuspension. The specific activity of 90 Sr ( 137 Cs) in the annual depositions exhibited a 10-year (20-year) half-life. Those data were comparable with values reported in the literature for the half-residence time (HRT) of 90 Sr and 137 Cs in Japanese surface soils. They were also comparable to those calculated from nationwide data of 90 Sr and 137 Cs concentrations in the surface soil (0-10 cm) obtained from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology Environmental Radiation Database (the MEXT Database). Regarding the activity ratio of 137 Cs/ 90 Sr, the Japanese nationwide surface soil data collected during the 1990s in the MEXT Database (median: 5.3, n=584) did not accord with that in the deposition samples

  10. Increases in aerosol concentrations over eastern China due to the decadal-scale weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Jianlei; Liao, Hong; Li, Jianping

    2012-05-01

    China has been experiencing increased concentrations of aerosols, commonly attributed to the large increases in emissions associated with the rapid economic development. We show by using a chemical transport model driven by the assimilated meteorological fields that the observed decadal-scale weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon also contributed to the increases in aerosols in China. We find that the simulated aerosol concentrations have strong negative correlations with the strength of the East Asian Summer monsoon. Accounting for sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, black carbon, and organic carbon aerosols, the summer surface-layer PM2.5 concentration averaged over eastern China (110°-125°E, 20°-45°N) can be 17.7% higher in the weakest monsoon years than in the strongest monsoon years. The weakening of the East Asian Summer monsoon increases aerosol concentrations mainly by the changes in atmospheric circulation (the convergence of air pollutants) in eastern China.

  11. Using coral Ba/Ca records to investigate seasonal to decadal scale biogeochemical cycling in the surface and intermediate ocean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    LaVigne, M.; Cobb, K. M.; DeLong, K. L.; Freiberger, M. M.; Grottoli, A. G.; Hill, T. M.; Miller, H. R.; Nurhati, I. S.; Richey, J. N.; Serrato Marks, G.; Sherrell, R. M.

    2016-12-01

    Dissolved barium (BaSW), a bio-intermediate element, is linked to several biogeochemical processes such as the cycling and export of nutrients, organic carbon (Corg), and barite in surface and intermediate oceans. Dynamic BaSW cycling has been demonstrated in the water column on short timescales (days-weeks) while sedimentary records have documented geologic-scale changes in barite preservation driven by export production. Our understanding of how seasonal-decadal scale climate variability impacts these biogeochemical processes currently lacks robust records. Ba/Ca calibrations in surface and deep sea corals suggest barium is incorporated via cationic substitution in both aragonite and calcite. Here we demonstrate the utility of Ba/Ca for reconstructing biogeochemical variability using examples of surface and deep sea coral records. Century-long deep sea coral records from the California Current System (bamboo corals: 900-1500m) record interannual variations in Ba/Ca, likely reflecting changes in barite formation via bacterial Corg respiration or barite saturation state. A surface Porites coral Ba/Ca record from Christmas Island (central equatorial Pacific: 1978-1995) shows maxima during low productivity El Niño warm periods, suggesting that variations in BaSW are driven by biological removal via direct cellular uptake or indirectly via barite precipitation with the decomposition of large phytoplankton blooms at this location. Similarly, a sixteen-year long Siderastera siderea surface coral record from Dry Tortugas, FL (Gulf of Mexico: 1991-2007) shows seasonal Ba/Ca cycles that align with annual chlorophyll and δ13C. Taken together, these records demonstrate the linkages among Corg, nutrient cycling and BaSW in the surface and intermediate ocean on seasonal to decadal timescales. Multi-proxy paleoceanographic reconstructions including Ba/Ca have the potential to elucidate the mechanisms linking past climate, productivity, nutrients, and BaSW cycling in the past.

  12. EDITORIAL: Special issue on time scale algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsakis, Demetrios; Tavella, Patrizia

    2008-12-01

    This special issue of Metrologia presents selected papers from the Fifth International Time Scale Algorithm Symposium (VITSAS), including some of the tutorials presented on the first day. The symposium was attended by 76 persons, from every continent except Antarctica, by students as well as senior scientists, and hosted by the Real Instituto y Observatorio de la Armada (ROA) in San Fernando, Spain, whose staff further enhanced their nation's high reputation for hospitality. Although a timescale can be simply defined as a weighted average of clocks, whose purpose is to measure time better than any individual clock, timescale theory has long been and continues to be a vibrant field of research that has both followed and helped to create advances in the art of timekeeping. There is no perfect timescale algorithm, because every one embodies a compromise involving user needs. Some users wish to generate a constant frequency, perhaps not necessarily one that is well-defined with respect to the definition of a second. Other users might want a clock which is as close to UTC or a particular reference clock as possible, or perhaps wish to minimize the maximum variation from that standard. In contrast to the steered timescales that would be required by those users, other users may need free-running timescales, which are independent of external information. While no algorithm can meet all these needs, every algorithm can benefit from some form of tuning. The optimal tuning, and even the optimal algorithm, can depend on the noise characteristics of the frequency standards, or of their comparison systems, the most precise and accurate of which are currently Two Way Satellite Time and Frequency Transfer (TWSTFT) and GPS carrier phase time transfer. The interest in time scale algorithms and its associated statistical methodology began around 40 years ago when the Allan variance appeared and when the metrological institutions started realizing ensemble atomic time using more than

  13. The decadal-scale variation of the South Asian summer monsoon onset and its connection with the PDO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watanabe, T.; Yamazaki, K.

    2013-12-01

    The summer Asian monsoon shows the abrupt increase of precipitation on the onset phase. It is an interesting and important problem when the summer monsoon onset occurs because natural resources, such as water and renewable energy agricultural product, are influenced by the variation of the summer Asian monsoon. Some researchers suggested the advance of the Asian summer monsoon onset in recent decades. We investigated the variation of the Asian monsoon onset using the long-term onset data over Kerala, a state in the southwest region of India, for 1948-2011. We discuss three main questions: 1) how is the variation of the monsoon onset date in the long-term period, 2) how the variation of the onset date is related to variations of atmospheric circulation and SST, and 3) what is the mechanism of such variation. Our main method is composite analysis using monthly-mean data. Though the onset date over Kerala shows the trend toward the early onset in recent three decades, such a trend is not observed in the whole period. It is noteworthy that the onset over Kerala shows the interannual variation on a multi-decadal scale. As regards the early onset years of Kerala, the summer monsoon onset is early over the following regions: the region from the southern Arabian Sea to southwestern India, the region from the southern Bay of Bengal to the Indochina Peninsula and the western North Pacific Ocean. On the other hand, the onset is late over southern China, Taiwan and the northern Philippine Sea. In early onset years of Kerala, the sea surface temperature over the northern Pacific Ocean is very similar to the negative PDO. The stationary wave train related with the negative PDO reaches into the Central Asia region, generates warm anomaly there and hence intensifies the land-sea thermal contrast there, which promotes the summer monsoon onset over South and Southeast Asia. Though the correlation between the onset over Kerala and the PDO is weak before 1976, it becomes high after

  14. Arctic energy budget in relation to sea ice variability on monthly-to-annual time scales

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Krikken, F.; Hazeleger, W.

    2015-01-01

    The large decrease in Arctic sea ice in recent years has triggered a strong interest in Arctic sea ice predictions on seasonal-to-decadal time scales. Hence, it is important to understand physical processes that provide enhanced predictability beyond persistence of sea ice anomalies. This study

  15. The dynamics of single protein molecules is non-equilibrium and self-similar over thirteen decades in time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Xiaohu; Hong, Liang; Dean Smith, Micholas; Neusius, Thomas; Cheng, Xiaolin; Smith, Jeremy C.

    2016-02-01

    Internal motions of proteins are essential to their function. The time dependence of protein structural fluctuations is highly complex, manifesting subdiffusive, non-exponential behaviour with effective relaxation times existing over many decades in time, from ps up to ~102 s (refs ,,,). Here, using molecular dynamics simulations, we show that, on timescales from 10-12 to 10-5 s, motions in single proteins are self-similar, non-equilibrium and exhibit ageing. The characteristic relaxation time for a distance fluctuation, such as inter-domain motion, is observation-time-dependent, increasing in a simple, power-law fashion, arising from the fractal nature of the topology and geometry of the energy landscape explored. Diffusion over the energy landscape follows a non-ergodic continuous time random walk. Comparison with single-molecule experiments suggests that the non-equilibrium self-similar dynamical behaviour persists up to timescales approaching the in vivo lifespan of individual protein molecules.

  16. Almost Automorphic Functions on the Quantum Time Scale and Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongkun Li

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available We first propose two types of concepts of almost automorphic functions on the quantum time scale. Secondly, we study some basic properties of almost automorphic functions on the quantum time scale. Then, we introduce a transformation between functions defined on the quantum time scale and functions defined on the set of generalized integer numbers; by using this transformation we give equivalent definitions of almost automorphic functions on the quantum time scale; following the idea of the transformation, we also give a concept of almost automorphic functions on more general time scales that can unify the concepts of almost automorphic functions on almost periodic time scales and on the quantum time scale. Finally, as an application of our results, we establish the existence of almost automorphic solutions of linear and semilinear dynamic equations on the quantum time scale.

  17. Active living among older Canadians: a time-use perspective over 3 decades.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spinney, Jamie E L; Millward, Hugh

    2014-01-01

    This research uses four nationally representative samples of time diary data, spanning almost 30 yr, that are fused with energy expenditure information to enumerate the median daily duration of moderate or vigorous effort activity, quantify the prevalence of Canadians age 65 yr and older who are meeting recommended daily levels of physical activity, and explore the factors affecting rates of active living. Results indicate that 41.1% of older Canadians met recommended levels of physical activity in 1992, 40.6% in 1998, 43.5% in 2005, and 39.6% in 2010. Both rates of active living and daily duration of aerobic activity exhibit significant differences among sociodemographic groups, with age, sex, activity limitation, urban-rural, and season exhibiting the most significant influences. This study illustrates the potential for time diary data to provide detailed surveillance of physical activity patterns, active aging research, and program development, as well.

  18. Controls on the geochemical evolution of Prairie Pothole Region lakes and wetlands over decadal time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldhaber, Martin B.; Mills, Christopher T.; Mushet, David M.; McCleskey, R. Blaine; Rover, Jennifer

    2016-01-01

    One hundred sixty-seven Prairie Pothole lakes, ponds and wetlands (largely lakes) previously analyzed chemically during the late 1960’s and early to mid-1970’s were resampled and reanalyzed in 2011–2012. The two sampling periods differed climatically. The earlier sampling took place during normal to slightly dry conditions, whereas the latter occurred during and immediately following exceptionally wet conditions. As reported previously in Mushet et al. (2015), the dominant effect was expansion of the area of these lakes and dilution of their major ions. However, within that context, there were significant differences in the evolutionary pathways of major ions. To establish these pathways, we employed the inverse modeling computer code NetpathXL. This code takes the initial and final lake composition and, using mass balance constrained by the composition of diluting waters, and input and output of phases, calculates plausible geochemical evolution pathways. Despite the fact that in most cases major ions decreased, a subset of the lakes had an increase in SO42−. This distinction is significant because SO42− is the dominant anion in a majority of Prairie Pothole Region wetlands and lakes. For lakes with decreasing SO42−, the proportion of original lake water required for mass balance was subordinate to rainwater and/or overland flow. In contrast, lakes with increasing SO42− between the two sampling episodes tended to be dominated by original lake water. This suite of lakes tended to be smaller and have lower initial SO42−concentrations such that inputs of sulfur from dissolution of the minerals gypsum or pyrite had a significant impact on the final sulfur concentration given the lower dilution factors. Thus, our study provides context for how Prairie Pothole Region water bodies evolve geochemically as climate changes. Because wetland geochemistry in turn controls the ecology of these water bodies, this research contributes to the prediction of the impact of climate change on this important complex of ecosystems.

  19. Centennial- to decadal-scale monsoon precipitation variations in the upper Hanjiang River region, China over the past 6650 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Liangcheng; Cai, Yanjun; Cheng, Hai; Edwards, Lawrence R.; Gao, Yongli; Xu, Hai; Zhang, Haiwei; An, Zhisheng

    2018-01-01

    The upper Hanjiang River region is the recharge area of the middle route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project. The region is under construction of the Hanjiang-Weihe River Water Transfer Project in China. Monsoon precipitation variations in this region are critical to water resource and security of China. In this study, high-resolution monsoon precipitation variations were reconstructed in the upper Hanjiang River region over the past 6650 years from δ18O and δ13C records of four stalagmites in Xianglong cave. The long term increasing trend of stalagmite δ18O record since the middle Holocene is consistent with other speleothem records from monsoonal China. This trend follows the gradually decreasing Northern Hemisphere summer insolation, which indicates that solar insolation may control the orbital-scale East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) variations. Despite the declined EASM intensity since the middle Holocene, local precipitation may not have decreased remarkably, as revealed by the δ13C records. A series of centennial- to decadal-scale cyclicity was observed, with quasi-millennium-, quasi-century-, 57-, 36- and 22-year cycles by removing the long-term trend of stalagmite δ18O record. Increased monsoon precipitation during periods of 4390-3800 a BP, 3590-2960 a BP, 2050-1670 a BP and 1110-790 a BP had caused four super-floods in the upper reach of Hanjiang River. Dramatically dry climate existed in this region during the 5.0 ka and 2.8 ka events, coinciding with notable droughts in other regions of monsoonal China. Remarkably intensified and southward Westerly jet, together with weakened summer monsoon, may delay the onset of rainy seasons, resulting in synchronous decreasing of monsoon precipitation in China during the two events. During the 4.2 ka event and the Little Ice Age, the upper Hanjiang River region was wet, which was similar to the climate conditions in central and southern China, but was the opposite of drought observed in northern China. We

  20. How diverse was the leisure time physical activity of older Australians over the past decade?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dafna, Merom; Carmen, Cosgrove; Kamalesh, Venugopal; Adrian, Bauman

    2012-05-01

    Public health recommendations for older adults highlight the need to engage in a combination of aerobic, muscle strength, flexibility and balance activities. This study characterised leisure time physical activity in older Australians (≥ 65 years), examining the diversity in reported activities Cross-sectional monitoring. The Exercise Recreation and Sport Surveys (2001-2009) were combined and analysed for 22,050 elderly. Walking was reported by 45.6%, of those 53% engaged exclusively in walking. Prevalent sports (i.e., >1%) were bowls (9.4%), aerobics/callisthenics exercise (9.1%), golf (7.7%), swimming (6.4%), gym work (5.2%), cycling (3.2%), tennis (2.9%), dancing (2.1%), fishing (2.0%), tai chi (1.4%), weight lifting (1.2%) and yoga (1.1%). Significant gender differences were apparent. Over time, significant increases were reported in walking, aerobic/callisthenics and gym workout in both genders. In the previous year, 32.0% of older adults participated in "nil" activity, 40.6% engaged in one activity, 19.5% and 8.0% participated in two or three or more activities, respectively. Common combinations were walking with another aerobic activity. Only 2.6% reported a combination of aerobic, balance and strength activities. Multiple-activity participation increased over the years, but declined with increasing age, education and for the most disadvantaged, compared to single-activity participation. Partially or exclusively organised participation, combined, was reported by 42.5% of older adults. Women were more likely to combine mode of participation. Geographic region was associated with multiple-activity participation and organised-only participation. Most elderly people engage in one activity, if at all. An increase in participation in balance enhancing activities and weight training is warranted to maximize health benefits. Copyright © 2011 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. It’s Time to End the Decade of Confusion about OBE in South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William Spady

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available The fundamental elements of what is known today as Outcome-Based Education are clearly embodied in numerous familiar models of learning, assessment, and credentialing in the non-education world that, in some cases, are many centuries old. In virtually all of these models, successful outcome performance is the clear/fixed/pre-determined/known/constant factor in the equation, and time is the flexible/variable/adaptable factor. In formal education, however, exactly the opposite pattern exists: time is the clear/fixed/pre-determined/known/ constant factor, and learning successes the flexible/variable/adaptable factor. This makes “authentic” OBE implementation extremely difficult for modern education systems to implement because they are fundamentally Time-Based – defined, organized, and driven by the calendar, schedule, and clock – not Outcome-Based as some profess. South Africa is no exception to this rule – which made its enthusiastic embracing of OBE in 1997 problematic from the start. In explaining the core fundamentals of the OBE concept and how those fundamentals evolved(particularly in North America prior to 1997, this paper makes clear that South Africa’s Curriculum2005 initiative missed the OBE mark on almost every essential count: 1 not having a clear, compelling, and operational framework of “Exit Outcomes” on which to ground the reform and the curricular changes which drove it; 2 making no reference, either in theory or practice, to OBE’s Four Operating Principles – which enable modern day educators to get as close to “real “implementation as the Time-Based paradigm of education allows; 3 missing the mark significantly on understanding and implementing what Outcomes are – culminating demonstrations of learning– the multiple forms they take, and the multiple ways in which they can be designed and assessed;4 bogging down in micro content, assessments, marking, and record-keeping – which advanced BE

  2. Cycles, scaling and crossover phenomenon in length of the day (LOD) time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Telesca, Luciano

    2007-06-01

    The dynamics of the temporal fluctuations of the length of the day (LOD) time series from January 1, 1962 to November 2, 2006 were investigated. The power spectrum of the whole time series has revealed annual, semi-annual, decadal and daily oscillatory behaviors, correlated with oceanic-atmospheric processes and interactions. The scaling behavior was analyzed by using the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), which has revealed two different scaling regimes, separated by a crossover timescale at approximately 23 days. Flicker-noise process can describe the dynamics of the LOD time regime involving intermediate and long timescales, while Brownian dynamics characterizes the LOD time series for small timescales.

  3. Time Trends in Murray's Psychogenic Needs over Three Decades in Swedish 75-Year-Olds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Billstedt, Eva; Waern, Margda; Falk, Hanna; Duberstein, Paul; Östling, Svante; Hällström, Tore; Skoog, Ingmar

    2017-01-01

    While time trends in personality traits have been suggested in younger cohorts, little is known regarding this issue in older adults. To test for birth cohort changes in psychogenic needs according to Murray's theory of personality in two birth cohorts of 75-year-olds born 1901-1902 and 1930. Two population-based birth cohorts were examined at the age of 75 years in 1976-1977 and in 2005-2006. Psychogenic needs according to Murray were measured with the Cesarec-Marke Personality Schedule (CMPS), a Swedish version of the Edwards Personal Preference Schedule. Scores on the CMPS subscales (achievement, affiliation, aggression, defence of status, guilt feelings, dominance, exhibition, autonomy, nurturance, order, succorance, and acquiescence) were compared between cohorts. Achievement, exhibition, dominance, aggression, affiliation, and succorance scores were higher, and order and acquiescence scores lower, in the more recent birth cohort of 75-year-olds. Women scored lower than men on exhibition and dominance, and higher on defence of status, guilt feelings, affiliation, nurturance, and succorance. Interaction effects between cohort and sex were found for achievement (women scored lower than men in 1976-1977 but not in 2005-2006), order (the lower scores in 2005-2006 were more accentuated among men), and acquiescence (increased in men and decreased in women). The later-born birth cohort scored higher on self-centred traits, such as more dominant, competitive, and exhibitive traits as well as the need to be taken care of and have friends around, but it scored lower on the need for order. The gap between men and women regarding achievement decreased, possibly reflecting women's more prominent role in society. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  4. The IRIS Data Management Center: Enabling Access to Observational Time Series Spanning Decades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahern, T.; Benson, R.; Trabant, C.

    2009-04-01

    The Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS) is funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF) to operate the facilities to generate, archive, and distribute seismological data to research communities in the United States and internationally. The IRIS Data Management System (DMS) is responsible for the ingestion, archiving, curation and distribution of these data. The IRIS Data Management Center (DMC) manages data from more than 100 permanent seismic networks, hundreds of temporary seismic deployments as well as data from other geophysical observing networks such as magnetotelluric sensors, ocean bottom sensors, superconducting gravimeters, strainmeters, surface meteorological measurements, and in-situ atmospheric pressure measurements. The IRIS DMC has data from more than 20 different types of sensors. The IRIS DMC manages approximately 100 terabytes of primary observational data. These data are archived in multiple distributed storage systems that insure data availability independent of any single catastrophic failure. Storage systems include both RAID systems of greater than 100 terabytes as well as robotic tape robots of petabyte capacity. IRIS performs routine transcription of the data to new media and storage systems to insure the long-term viability of the scientific data. IRIS adheres to the OAIS Data Preservation Model in most cases. The IRIS data model requires the availability of metadata describing the characteristics and geographic location of sensors before data can be fully archived. IRIS works with the International Federation of Digital Seismographic Networks (FDSN) in the definition and evolution of the metadata. The metadata insures that the data remain useful to both current and future generations of earth scientists. Curation of the metadata and time series is one of the most important activities at the IRIS DMC. Data analysts and an automated quality assurance system monitor the quality of the incoming data. This insures data

  5. Decadal-to-centennial-scale climate variability: Insights into the rise and fall of the Great Salt Lake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, Michael E.; Lall, Upmanu; Saltzman, Barry

    1995-01-01

    We demonstrate connections between decadal and secular global climatic variations, and historical variations in the volume of the Great Salt Lake. The decadal variations correspond to a low-frequency shifting of storm tracks which influence winter precipitation and explain nearly 18% of the interannual and longer-term variance in the record of monthly volume change. The secular trend accounts for a more modest approximately 1.5% of the variance.

  6. Time trend of smoking scenes in Iranian movies during the past three decades (1982-2011): a historical analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heydari, Gholamreza; Ebn Ahmady, Arezoo; Lando, Harry A; Chamyani, Fahimeh; Masjedi, Mohammad Reza; Shadmehr, Mohammad B; Fadaizadeh, Lida; Chaibakhsh, Samira

    2016-09-01

    Evidence from the USA and elsewhere has linked smoking depictions in movies with youth smoking initiation. Prior research has not focused on depictions in films produced in the Middle East, however. We reviewed the 10 most commercially successful Iranian films released each year over three decades (1982-2011) to determine trends in depictions of tobacco use over time. Each movie was reviewed in its entirety, and depictions of smoking were recorded and classified as direct (characters holding or using tobacco products) and indirect (tobacco products appearing in the frame, but not being used). Time trends in average duration of direct, indirect and total smoking depictions were analysed using linear regression and Cohen's κ coefficient. The mean duration of tobacco depictions in the most commercially successful Iranian films fluctuated yearly over the 3 decades, but with an overall significant upward trend (pfilm industry to minimise this important source of influence on tobacco initiation in young people. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  7. Speed scaling for weighted flow time

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bansal, N.; Pruhs, K.R.; Stein, C.

    2007-01-01

    In addition to the traditional goal of efficiently managing time and space, many computers now need to efficiently manage power usage. For example, Intel's SpeedStep and AMD's PowerNOW technologies allow the Windows XP operating system to dynamically change the speed of the processor to prolong

  8. Long-time data storage: relevant time scales

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elwenspoek, Michael Curt

    2011-01-01

    Dynamic processes relevant for long-time storage of information about human kind are discussed, ranging from biological and geological processes to the lifecycle of stars and the expansion of the universe. Major results are that life will end ultimately and the remaining time that the earth is

  9. Time scale of random sequential adsorption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erban, Radek; Chapman, S Jonathan

    2007-04-01

    A simple multiscale approach to the diffusion-driven adsorption from a solution to a solid surface is presented. The model combines two important features of the adsorption process: (i) The kinetics of the chemical reaction between adsorbing molecules and the surface and (ii) geometrical constraints on the surface made by molecules which are already adsorbed. The process (i) is modeled in a diffusion-driven context, i.e., the conditional probability of adsorbing a molecule provided that the molecule hits the surface is related to the macroscopic surface reaction rate. The geometrical constraint (ii) is modeled using random sequential adsorption (RSA), which is the sequential addition of molecules at random positions on a surface; one attempt to attach a molecule is made per one RSA simulation time step. By coupling RSA with the diffusion of molecules in the solution above the surface the RSA simulation time step is related to the real physical time. The method is illustrated on a model of chemisorption of reactive polymers to a virus surface.

  10. Nuclear disassembly time scales using space time correlations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Durand, D.; Colin, J.; Lecolley, J.F.; Meslin, C.; Aboufirassi, M.; Bougault, R.; Brou, R. [Caen Univ., 14 (France). Lab. de Physique Corpusculaire; Bilwes, B.; Cosmo, F. [Strasbourg-1 Univ., 67 (France); Galin, J. [Grand Accelerateur National d`Ions Lourds (GANIL), 14 - Caen (France); and others

    1996-09-01

    The lifetime, {tau}, with respect to multifragmentation of highly excited nuclei is deduced from the analysis of strongly damped Pb+Au collisions at 29 MeV/u. The method is based on the study of space-time correlations induced by `proximity` effects between fragments emitted by the two primary products of the reaction and gives the time between the re-separation of the two primary products and the subsequent multifragment decay of one partner. (author). 2 refs.

  11. Nuclear disassembly time scales using space time correlations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Durand, D.; Colin, J.; Lecolley, J.F.; Meslin, C.; Aboufirassi, M.; Bougault, R.; Brou, R.; Galin, J.; and others.

    1996-01-01

    The lifetime, τ, with respect to multifragmentation of highly excited nuclei is deduced from the analysis of strongly damped Pb+Au collisions at 29 MeV/u. The method is based on the study of space-time correlations induced by 'proximity' effects between fragments emitted by the two primary products of the reaction and gives the time between the re-separation of the two primary products and the subsequent multifragment decay of one partner. (author)

  12. Relaxation Processes and Time Scale Transformation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-03-01

    the response function may be immediately recognized as being 14 of the Kubo - Green type in the classical regime. Given this general framework, it is now...b as a function of temperature is 24 equivalent to the Vogel-Beuche-Fulcher empirical law for viscosity or the Williams-Landel-Ferry empirical law...relaxation times. With the weighted sum in the form of an integral , one can write exp(-(t/T)b ] = f dT’g(r’) exp[-(t/T’)], O

  13. Decadal-scale relationship between measurements of aerosols, land-use change, and fire over Southeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blake Cohen, Jason; Lecoeur, Eve; Loong Ng, Daniel Hui

    2017-01-01

    A simultaneous analysis of 13 years of remotely sensed data of land cover, fires, precipitation, and aerosols from the MODIS, TRMM, and MISR satellites and the AERONET network over Southeast Asia is performed, leading to a set of robust relationships between land-use change and fire being found on inter-annual and intra-annual scales over Southeast Asia, reflecting the heavy amounts of anthropogenic influence over land-use change and fires in this region of the world. First, we find that fires occur annually, but with a considerable amount of variance in their onset, duration, and intensity from year to year, and from two separate regions within Southeast Asia. Second, we show that a simple regression model of the land-cover, fire, and precipitation data can be used to recreate a robust representation of the timing and magnitude of measured aerosol optical depth (AOD) from multiple measurements sources of this region using either 8-day (better for onset and duration) or monthly (better for magnitude) measurements, but not daily measurements. We find that the reconstructed AOD matches the timing and intensity from AERONET measurements to within 70 to 90 % and the timing and intensity of MISR measurements to within 50 to 95 %. This is a unique finding in this part of the world since cloud-covered regions are large, yet the model is still robustly capable, including over regions where no fires are observed and hence no emissions would be expected to contribute to AOD. Third, we determine that while Southeast Asia is a source region of such intense smoke emissions, portions of it are also impacted by smoke transported from other regions. There are regions in northern Southeast Asia which have two annual AOD peaks, one during the local fire season and the other, smaller peak corresponding to a combination of some local smoke sources as well as transport of aerosols from fires in southern Southeast Asia and possibly even from anthropogenic sources in South Asia. Overall

  14. Long-Time Data Storage: Relevant Time Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miko C. Elwenspoek

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Dynamic processes relevant for long-time storage of information about human kind are discussed, ranging from biological and geological processes to the lifecycle of stars and the expansion of the universe. Major results are that life will end ultimately and the remaining time that the earth is habitable for complex life is about half a billion years. A system retrieved within the next million years will be read by beings very closely related to Homo sapiens. During this time the surface of the earth will change making it risky to place a small number of large memory systems on earth; the option to place it on the moon might be more favorable. For much longer timescales both options do not seem feasible because of geological processes on the earth and the flux of small meteorites to the moon.

  15. Decadal- to interannual-scale source water variations in the Caribbean Sea recorded by Puerto Rican coral radiocarbon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kilbourne, K H; Quinn, T M; Guilderson, T P; Webb, R S; Taylor, F W

    2006-12-05

    Water that forms the Florida Current, and eventually the Gulf Stream, coalesces in the Caribbean from both subtropical and equatorial sources. The equatorial sources are made up of, in part, South Atlantic water moving northward and compensating for southward flow at depth related to meridional overturning circulation. Subtropical surface water contains relatively high amounts of radiocarbon ({sup 14}C), whereas equatorial waters are influenced by the upwelling of low {sup 14}C water and have relatively low concentrations of {sup 14}C. We use a 250-year record of {Delta}{sup 14}C in a coral from southwestern Puerto Rico along with previously published coral {Delta}{sup 14}C records as tracers of subtropical and equatorial water mixing in the northern Caribbean. Data generated in this study and from other studies indicate that the influence of either of the two water masses can change considerably on interannual to interdecadal time scales. Variability due to ocean dynamics in this region is large relative to variability caused by atmospheric {sup 14}C changes, thus masking the Suess effect at this site. A mixing model produced using coral {Delta}{sup 14}C illustrates the time varying proportion of equatorial versus subtropical waters in the northern Caribbean between 1963 and 1983. The results of the model are consistent with linkages between multidecadal thermal variability in the North Atlantic and meridional overturning circulation. Ekman transport changes related to tradewind variability are proposed as a possible mechanism to explain the observed switches between relatively low and relatively high {Delta}{sup 14}C values in the coral radiocarbon records.

  16. Dynamic modelling of heavy metals - time scales and target loads

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Posch, M.; Vries, de W.

    2009-01-01

    Over the past decade steady-state methods have been developed to assess critical loads of metals avoiding long-term risks in view of food quality and eco-toxicological effects on organisms in soils and surface waters. However, dynamic models are needed to estimate the times involved in attaining a

  17. Time Scales in the JPL and CfA Ephemerides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Standish, E. M.

    1998-01-01

    Over the past decades, the IAU has repeatedly attempted to correct its definition of the basic fundamental argument used in the emphemerides. Finally, they have defined a time system which is physically possible, according to the accepted standard theory of gravitation.

  18. Bounds of Certain Dynamic Inequalities on Time Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deepak B. Pachpatte

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we study explicit bounds of certain dynamic integral inequalities on time scales. These estimates give the bounds on unknown functions which can be used in studying the qualitative aspects of certain dynamic equations. Using these inequalities we prove the uniqueness of some partial integro-differential equations on time scales.

  19. Temperature dependence of fluctuation time scales in spin glasses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kenning, Gregory G.; Bowen, J.; Sibani, Paolo

    2010-01-01

    Using a series of fast cooling protocols we have probed aging effects in the spin glass state as a function of temperature. Analyzing the logarithmic decay found at very long time scales within a simple phenomenological barrier model, leads to the extraction of the fluctuation time scale of the s...

  20. Time scales of supercooled water and implications for reversible polyamorphism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Limmer, David T.; Chandler, David

    2015-09-01

    Deeply supercooled water exhibits complex dynamics with large density fluctuations, ice coarsening and characteristic time scales extending from picoseconds to milliseconds. Here, we discuss implications of these time scales as they pertain to two-phase coexistence and to molecular simulations of supercooled water. Specifically, we argue that it is possible to discount liquid-liquid criticality because the time scales imply that correlation lengths for such behaviour would be bounded by no more than a few nanometres. Similarly, it is possible to discount two-liquid coexistence because the time scales imply a bounded interfacial free energy that cannot grow in proportion to a macroscopic surface area. From time scales alone, therefore, we see that coexisting domains of differing density in supercooled water can be no more than nanoscale transient fluctuations.

  1. Time scales of tunneling decay of a localized state

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ban, Yue; Muga, J. G.; Sherman, E. Ya.; Buettiker, M.

    2010-01-01

    Motivated by recent time-domain experiments on ultrafast atom ionization, we analyze the transients and time scales that characterize, aside from the relatively long lifetime, the decay of a localized state by tunneling. While the tunneling starts immediately, some time is required for the outgoing flux to develop. This short-term behavior depends strongly on the initial state. For the initial state, tightly localized so that the initial transients are dominated by over-the-barrier motion, the time scale for flux propagation through the barrier is close to the Buettiker-Landauer traversal time. Then a quasistationary, slow-decay process follows, which sets ideal conditions for observing diffraction in time at longer times and distances. To define operationally a tunneling time at the barrier edge, we extrapolate backward the propagation of the wave packet that escaped from the potential. This extrapolated time is considerably longer than the time scale of the flux and density buildup at the barrier edge.

  2. Period and phase comparisons of near-decadal oscillations in solar, geomagnetic, and cosmic ray time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juckett, David A.

    2001-09-01

    A more complete understanding of the periodic dynamics of the Sun requires continued exploration of non-11-year oscillations in addition to the benchmark 11-year sunspot cycle. In this regard, several solar, geomagnetic, and cosmic ray time series were examined to identify common spectral components and their relative phase relationships. Several non-11-year oscillations were identified within the near-decadal range with periods of ~8, 10, 12, 15, 18, 22, and 29 years. To test whether these frequency components were simply low-level noise or were related to a common source, the phases were extracted for each component in each series. The phases were nearly identical across the solar and geomagnetic series, while the corresponding components in four cosmic ray surrogate series exhibited inverted phases, similar to the known phase relationship with the 11-year sunspot cycle. Cluster analysis revealed that this pattern was unlikely to occur by chance. It was concluded that many non-11-year oscillations truly exist in the solar dynamical environment and that these contribute to the complex variations observed in geomagnetic and cosmic ray time series. Using the different energy sensitivities of the four cosmic ray surrogate series, a preliminary indication of the relative intensities of the various solar-induced oscillations was observed. It provides evidence that many of the non-11-year oscillations result from weak interplanetary magnetic field/solar wind oscillations that originate from corresponding variations in the open-field regions of the Sun.

  3. Bridging time scales in cellular decision making with a stochastic bistable switch

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Waldherr Steffen

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cellular transformations which involve a significant phenotypical change of the cell's state use bistable biochemical switches as underlying decision systems. Some of these transformations act over a very long time scale on the cell population level, up to the entire lifespan of the organism. Results In this work, we aim at linking cellular decisions taking place on a time scale of years to decades with the biochemical dynamics in signal transduction and gene regulation, occuring on a time scale of minutes to hours. We show that a stochastic bistable switch forms a viable biochemical mechanism to implement decision processes on long time scales. As a case study, the mechanism is applied to model the initiation of follicle growth in mammalian ovaries, where the physiological time scale of follicle pool depletion is on the order of the organism's lifespan. We construct a simple mathematical model for this process based on experimental evidence for the involved genetic mechanisms. Conclusions Despite the underlying stochasticity, the proposed mechanism turns out to yield reliable behavior in large populations of cells subject to the considered decision process. Our model explains how the physiological time constant may emerge from the intrinsic stochasticity of the underlying gene regulatory network. Apart from ovarian follicles, the proposed mechanism may also be of relevance for other physiological systems where cells take binary decisions over a long time scale.

  4. Soil moisture memory at sub-monthly time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mccoll, K. A.; Entekhabi, D.

    2017-12-01

    For soil moisture-climate feedbacks to occur, the soil moisture storage must have `memory' of past atmospheric anomalies. Quantifying soil moisture memory is, therefore, essential for mapping and characterizing land-atmosphere interactions globally. Most previous studies estimate soil moisture memory using metrics based on the autocorrelation function of the soil moisture time series (e.g., the e-folding autocorrelation time scale). This approach was first justified by Delworth and Manabe (1988) on the assumption that monthly soil moisture time series can be modelled as red noise. While this is a reasonable model for monthly soil moisture averages, at sub-monthly scales, the model is insufficient due to the highly non-Gaussian behavior of the precipitation forcing. Recent studies have shown that significant soil moisture-climate feedbacks appear to occur at sub-monthly time scales. Therefore, alternative metrics are required for defining and estimating soil moisture memory at these shorter time scales. In this study, we introduce metrics, based on the positive and negative increments of the soil moisture time series, that can be used to estimate soil moisture memory at sub-monthly time scales. The positive increments metric corresponds to a rapid drainage time scale. The negative increments metric represents a slower drying time scale that is most relevant to the study of land-atmosphere interactions. We show that autocorrelation-based metrics mix the two time scales, confounding physical interpretation. The new metrics are used to estimate soil moisture memory at sub-monthly scales from in-situ and satellite observations of soil moisture. Reference: Delworth, Thomas L., and Syukuro Manabe. "The Influence of Potential Evaporation on the Variabilities of Simulated Soil Wetness and Climate." Journal of Climate 1, no. 5 (May 1, 1988): 523-47. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1988)0012.0.CO;2.

  5. Time dependency of the prediction skill for the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in initialized decadal hindcasts with MPI-ESM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brune, Sebastian; Düsterhus, Andre; Pohlmann, Holger; Müller, Wolfgang; Baehr, Johanna

    2017-04-01

    We analyze the time dependency of decadal hindcast skill in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre within the time period 1961-2013. We compare anomaly correlation coefficients and interquartile ranges of total upper ocean heat content and sea surface temperature for three differently initialized sets of hindcast simulations with the global coupled model MPI-ESM. All initializations use weakly coupled assimilation with the same full-field nudging in the atmospheric component and different assimilation techniques for oceanic temperature and salinity: (1) ensemble Kalman filter assimilating EN4 and HadISST observations, (2) nudging of anomalies to ORAS4 reanalysis, (3) nudging of full values to ORAS4 reanalysis. We find that hindcast skill depends strongly on the evaluation time period, with higher hindcast skill during strong multiyear trends and lower hindcast skill in the absence of such trends. While there may only be small differences between the prediction systems in the analysis focusing on the entire hindcast period, these differences between the hindcast systems are much more pronounced when investigating any 20-year subperiod within the entire hindcast period. For the ensemble Kalman filter high skill in the assimilation experiment is generally linked to high skill in the initialized hindcasts. Such direct link does not seem to exist in the hindcasts initialized by either nudged system. In the ensemble Kalman filter initialized hindcasts, we find significant hindcast skill for up to 5 to 8 lead years, except for the 1970s. In the nudged system initialized hindcasts, hindcast skill is consistently diminished in lead years 2 and 3 with lowest skill in the 1970s as well. Overall, we find that a model-consistent assimilation technique can improve hindcast skill. Further, the evaluation of 20 year subperiods within the full hindcast period provides essential insights to judge the success of both the assimilation and the subsequent hindcast skill.

  6. Liquidity spillover in international stock markets through distinct time scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Righi, Marcelo Brutti; Vieira, Kelmara Mendes

    2014-01-01

    This paper identifies liquidity spillovers through different time scales based on a wavelet multiscaling method. We decompose daily data from U.S., British, Brazilian and Hong Kong stock markets indices in order to calculate the scale correlation between their illiquidities. The sample is divided in order to consider non-crisis, sub-prime crisis and Eurozone crisis. We find that there are changes in correlations of distinct scales and different periods. Association in finest scales is smaller than in coarse scales. There is a rise on associations in periods of crisis. In frequencies, there is predominance for significant distinctions involving the coarsest scale, while for crises periods there is predominance for distinctions on the finest scale.

  7. AFSC/ABL: Ugashik sockeye salmon scale time series

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A time series of scale samples (1956 b?? 2002) collected from adult sockeye salmon returning to Ugashik River were retrieved from the Alaska Department of Fish and...

  8. AFSC/ABL: Naknek sockeye salmon scale time series

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A time series of scale samples (1956 2002) collected from adult sockeye salmon returning to Naknek River were retrieved from the Alaska Department of Fish and Game....

  9. An extended Halanay inequality of integral type on time scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boqun Ou

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we obtain a Halanay-type inequality of integral type on time scales which improves and extends some earlier results for both the continuous and discrete cases. Several illustrative examples are also given.

  10. Multiple dynamical time-scales in networks with hierarchically

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Modular networks; hierarchical organization; synchronization. ... we show that such a topological structure gives rise to characteristic time-scale separation ... This suggests a possible functional role of such mesoscopic organization principle in ...

  11. Large Deviations for Two-Time-Scale Diffusions, with Delays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kushner, Harold J.

    2010-01-01

    We consider the problem of large deviations for a two-time-scale reflected diffusion process, possibly with delays in the dynamical terms. The Dupuis-Ellis weak convergence approach is used. It is perhaps the most intuitive and simplest for the problems of concern. The results have applications to the problem of approximating optimal controls for two-time-scale systems via use of the averaged equation.

  12. Some New Inequalities of Opial's Type on Time Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samir H. Saker

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We will prove some new dynamic inequalities of Opial's type on time scales. The results not only extend some results in the literature but also improve some of them. Some continuous and discrete inequalities are derived from the main results as special cases. The results can be applied on the study of distribution of generalized zeros of half-linear dynamic equations on time scales.

  13. Scale-dependent intrinsic entropies of complex time series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeh, Jia-Rong; Peng, Chung-Kang; Huang, Norden E

    2016-04-13

    Multi-scale entropy (MSE) was developed as a measure of complexity for complex time series, and it has been applied widely in recent years. The MSE algorithm is based on the assumption that biological systems possess the ability to adapt and function in an ever-changing environment, and these systems need to operate across multiple temporal and spatial scales, such that their complexity is also multi-scale and hierarchical. Here, we present a systematic approach to apply the empirical mode decomposition algorithm, which can detrend time series on various time scales, prior to analysing a signal's complexity by measuring the irregularity of its dynamics on multiple time scales. Simulated time series of fractal Gaussian noise and human heartbeat time series were used to study the performance of this new approach. We show that our method can successfully quantify the fractal properties of the simulated time series and can accurately distinguish modulations in human heartbeat time series in health and disease. © 2016 The Author(s).

  14. Russian national time scale long-term stability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alshina, A. P.; Gaigerov, B. A.; Koshelyaevsky, N. B.; Pushkin, S. B.

    1994-05-01

    The Institute of Metrology for Time and Space NPO 'VNIIFTRI' generates the National Time Scale (NTS) of Russia -- one of the most stable time scales in the world. Its striking feature is that it is based on a free ensemble of H-masers only. During last two years the estimations of NTS longterm stability based only on H-maser intercomparison data gives a flicker floor of about (2 to 3) x 10(exp -15) for averaging times from 1 day to 1 month. Perhaps the most significant feature for a time laboratory is an extremely low possible frequency drift -- it is too difficult to estimate it reliably. The other estimations, free from possible inside the ensemble correlation phenomena, are available based on the time comparison of NTS relative to the stable enough time scale of outer laboratories. The data on NTS comparison relative to the time scale of secondary time and frequency standards at Golitzino and Irkutsk in Russia and relative to NIST, PTB and USNO using GLONASS and GPS time transfer links gives stability estimations which are close to that based on H-maser intercomparisons.

  15. Wind power impacts and electricity storage - a time scale perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hedegaard, Karsten; Meibom, Peter

    2012-01-01

    Integrating large amounts of wind power in energy systems poses balancing challenges due to the variable and only partly predictable nature of wind. The challenges cover different time scales from intra-hour, intra-day/day-ahead to several days and seasonal level. Along with flexible electricity...... demand options, various electricity storage technologies are being discussed as candidates for contributing to large-scale wind power integration and these also differ in terms of the time scales at which they can operate. In this paper, using the case of Western Denmark in 2025 with an expected 57% wind...... power penetration, wind power impacts on different time scales are analysed. Results show consecutive negative and high net load period lengths indicating a significant potential for flexibility measures capable of charging/activating demand and discharging/inactivating demand in periods of 1 h to one...

  16. The impact of policy guidelines on hospital antibiotic use over a decade: a segmented time series analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sujith J Chandy

    Full Text Available Antibiotic pressure contributes to rising antibiotic resistance. Policy guidelines encourage rational prescribing behavior, but effectiveness in containing antibiotic use needs further assessment. This study therefore assessed the patterns of antibiotic use over a decade and analyzed the impact of different modes of guideline development and dissemination on inpatient antibiotic use.Antibiotic use was calculated monthly as defined daily doses (DDD per 100 bed days for nine antibiotic groups and overall. This time series compared trends in antibiotic use in five adjacent time periods identified as 'Segments,' divided based on differing modes of guideline development and implementation: Segment 1--Baseline prior to antibiotic guidelines development; Segment 2--During preparation of guidelines and booklet dissemination; Segment 3--Dormant period with no guidelines dissemination; Segment 4--Booklet dissemination of revised guidelines; Segment 5--Booklet dissemination of revised guidelines with intranet access. Regression analysis adapted for segmented time series and adjusted for seasonality assessed changes in antibiotic use trend.Overall antibiotic use increased at a monthly rate of 0.95 (SE = 0.18, 0.21 (SE = 0.08 and 0.31 (SE = 0.06 for Segments 1, 2 and 3, stabilized in Segment 4 (0.05; SE = 0.10 and declined in Segment 5 (-0.37; SE = 0.11. Segments 1, 2 and 4 exhibited seasonal fluctuations. Pairwise segmented regression adjusted for seasonality revealed a significant drop in monthly antibiotic use of 0.401 (SE = 0.089; p<0.001 for Segment 5 compared to Segment 4. Most antibiotic groups showed similar trends to overall use.Use of overall and specific antibiotic groups showed varied patterns and seasonal fluctuations. Containment of rising overall antibiotic use was possible during periods of active guideline dissemination. Wider access through intranet facilitated significant decline in use. Stakeholders and policy

  17. Microsecond time-scale kinetics of transient biochemical reactions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mitic, S.; Strampraad, M.J.F.; Hagen, W.R.; de Vries, S.

    2017-01-01

    To afford mechanistic studies in enzyme kinetics and protein folding in the microsecond time domain we have developed a continuous-flow microsecond time-scale mixing instrument with an unprecedented dead-time of 3.8 ± 0.3 μs. The instrument employs a micro-mixer with a mixing time of 2.7 μs

  18. Time-Scale and Time-Frequency Analyses of Irregularly Sampled Astronomical Time Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Roques

    2005-09-01

    Full Text Available We evaluate the quality of spectral restoration in the case of irregular sampled signals in astronomy. We study in details a time-scale method leading to a global wavelet spectrum comparable to the Fourier period, and a time-frequency matching pursuit allowing us to identify the frequencies and to control the error propagation. In both cases, the signals are first resampled with a linear interpolation. Both results are compared with those obtained using Lomb's periodogram and using the weighted waveletZ-transform developed in astronomy for unevenly sampled variable stars observations. These approaches are applied to simulations and to light variations of four variable stars. This leads to the conclusion that the matching pursuit is more efficient for recovering the spectral contents of a pulsating star, even with a preliminary resampling. In particular, the results are almost independent of the quality of the initial irregular sampling.

  19. Full-scale and time-scale heating experiments at Stripa: preliminary results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cook, N.G.W.; Hood, Michael; California Univ., Berkeley

    1978-01-01

    Two full-scale heating experiments and a time-scale heating experiment have recently been started in granite 340 meters below surface. The purpose of the full-scale heating experiments is to assess the near-field effects of thermal loading for the design of an underground repository of nuclear wastes. That of the time-scale heating experiments is to obtain field data of the interaction between heaters and its effect on the rock mass during a period of about two years, which corresponds to about twenty years of full-scale operation. Geological features of the rock around each experiment have been mapped carefully, and temperatures, stresses and displacements induced in the rock by heating have been calculated in advance of the experiments. Some 800 different measurements are recorded at frequent intervals by a computer system situated underground. These data can be compared at any time with predictions made earlier on video display units underground

  20. Hydrodynamic time scales for intense laser-heated clusters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parra, Enrique; Alexeev, Ilya; Fan, Jingyun; Kim, Kiong Y.; McNaught, Stuart J.; Milchberg, Howard M.

    2003-01-01

    Measurements are presented of x-ray (>1.5 keV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV, λ equal to 2-44 nm) emission from argon clusters irradiated with constant-energy (50 mJ), variable-width laser pulses ranging from 100 fs to 10 ns. The results for clusters can be understood in terms of two time scales: a short time scale for optimal resonant absorption at the critical-density layer in the expanding plasma, and a longer time scale for the plasma to drop below critical density. We present a one-dimensional hydrodynamic model of the intense laser-cluster interaction in which the laser field is treated self-consistently. We find that nonuniform expansion of the heated material results in long-time resonance of the laser field at the critical-density plasma layer. These simulations explain the dependence of generation efficiency on laser pulse width

  1. Scaling properties in time-varying networks with memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hyewon; Ha, Meesoon; Jeong, Hawoong

    2015-12-01

    The formation of network structure is mainly influenced by an individual node's activity and its memory, where activity can usually be interpreted as the individual inherent property and memory can be represented by the interaction strength between nodes. In our study, we define the activity through the appearance pattern in the time-aggregated network representation, and quantify the memory through the contact pattern of empirical temporal networks. To address the role of activity and memory in epidemics on time-varying networks, we propose temporal-pattern coarsening of activity-driven growing networks with memory. In particular, we focus on the relation between time-scale coarsening and spreading dynamics in the context of dynamic scaling and finite-size scaling. Finally, we discuss the universality issue of spreading dynamics on time-varying networks for various memory-causality tests.

  2. Ignition in net for different energy confinement time scalings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johner, J.; Prevot, F.

    1988-06-01

    A zero-dimensional profile dependent model is used to assess the feasibility of ignition in the extended version of NET. Five recent scalings for the energy confinement time (Goldston, Kaye All, Kaye Big, Shimomura-Odajima, Rebut-Lallia) are compared in the frame of two different scenarii, i.e., H-mode with a flat density profile or L-mode with a peaked density profile. For the flat density H-mode case, ignition is accessible with none of the scalings except Rebut-Lallia's. For the peaked density L-mode case, ignition is accessible with none of the scalings except Rebut-Lallia's. For the two Kaye's scalings, ignition is forbidden in H-mode even with the peaked density profile. For the Rebut-Lallia scaling, ignition is allowed in L-mode even with the flat density profile

  3. Lessons Learned from 2 Decades of Modelling Forest Dead Organic Matter and Soil Carbon at the National Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaw, C.; Kurz, W. A.; Metsaranta, J.; Bona, K. A.; Hararuk, O.; Smyth, C.

    2017-12-01

    The Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3) is a forest carbon budget model that operates on individual stands. It is applied from regional to national-scales in Canada for national and international reporting of GHG emissions and removals and in support of analyses of forest sector mitigation options and other scientific and policy questions. This presentation will review the history and continuous improvement process of representations of dead organic matter (DOM) and soil carbon modelling. Early model versions in which dead organic matter (DOM) pools only included litter, downed deadwood and soil, to the current version where these pools are estimated separately to better compare model estimates against field measurements, or new pools have been added. Uncertainty analyses consistently point at soil C pools as large sources of uncertainty. With the new ground plot measurements from the National Forest Inventory, and with a newly compiled forest soil carbon database, we have recently completed a model data assimilation exercise that helped reduce parameter uncertainties. Lessons learned from the continuous improvement process will be summarised and we will discuss how model modification have led to improved representation of DOM and soil carbon dynamics. We conclude by suggesting future research priorities that can advance DOM and soil carbon modelling in Canadian forest ecosystems.

  4. Deviations from uniform power law scaling in nonstationary time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viswanathan, G. M.; Peng, C. K.; Stanley, H. E.; Goldberger, A. L.

    1997-01-01

    A classic problem in physics is the analysis of highly nonstationary time series that typically exhibit long-range correlations. Here we test the hypothesis that the scaling properties of the dynamics of healthy physiological systems are more stable than those of pathological systems by studying beat-to-beat fluctuations in the human heart rate. We develop techniques based on the Fano factor and Allan factor functions, as well as on detrended fluctuation analysis, for quantifying deviations from uniform power-law scaling in nonstationary time series. By analyzing extremely long data sets of up to N = 10(5) beats for 11 healthy subjects, we find that the fluctuations in the heart rate scale approximately uniformly over several temporal orders of magnitude. By contrast, we find that in data sets of comparable length for 14 subjects with heart disease, the fluctuations grow erratically, indicating a loss of scaling stability.

  5. Physics in space-time with scale-dependent metrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balankin, Alexander S.

    2013-10-01

    We construct three-dimensional space Rγ3 with the scale-dependent metric and the corresponding Minkowski space-time Mγ,β4 with the scale-dependent fractal (DH) and spectral (DS) dimensions. The local derivatives based on scale-dependent metrics are defined and differential vector calculus in Rγ3 is developed. We state that Mγ,β4 provides a unified phenomenological framework for dimensional flow observed in quite different models of quantum gravity. Nevertheless, the main attention is focused on the special case of flat space-time M1/3,14 with the scale-dependent Cantor-dust-like distribution of admissible states, such that DH increases from DH=2 on the scale ≪ℓ0 to DH=4 in the infrared limit ≫ℓ0, where ℓ0 is the characteristic length (e.g. the Planck length, or characteristic size of multi-fractal features in heterogeneous medium), whereas DS≡4 in all scales. Possible applications of approach based on the scale-dependent metric to systems of different nature are briefly discussed.

  6. Length and time scales of atmospheric moisture recycling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. J. van der Ent

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available It is difficult to quantify the degree to which terrestrial evaporation supports the occurrence of precipitation within a certain study region (i.e. regional moisture recycling due to the scale- and shape-dependence of regional moisture recycling ratios. In this paper we present a novel approach to quantify the spatial and temporal scale of moisture recycling, independent of the size and shape of the region under study. In contrast to previous studies, which essentially used curve fitting, the scaling laws presented by us follow directly from the process equation. thus allowing a fair comparison between regions and seasons. The calculation is based on ERA-Interim reanalysis data for the period 1999 to 2008. It is shown that in the tropics or in mountainous terrain the length scale of recycling can be as low as 500 to 2000 km. In temperate climates the length scale is typically between 3000 to 5000 km whereas it amounts to more than 7000 km in desert areas. The time scale of recycling ranges from 3 to 20 days, with the exception of deserts, where it is much longer. The most distinct seasonal differences can be observed over the Northern Hemisphere: in winter, moisture recycling is insignificant, whereas in summer it plays a major role in the climate. The length and time scales of atmospheric moisture recycling can be useful metrics to quantify local climatic effects of land use change.

  7. Patterns of floodplain sediment deposition along the regulated lower Roanoke River, North Carolina: annual, decadal, centennial scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hupp, Cliff R.; Schenk, Edward R.; Kroes, Daniel; Willard, Debra A.; Townsend, Phil A.; Peet, Robert K.

    2015-01-01

    The lower Roanoke River on the Coastal Plain of North Carolina is not embayed and maintains a floodplain that is among the largest on the mid-Atlantic Coast. This floodplain has been impacted by substantial aggradation in response to upstream colonial and post-colonial agriculture between the mid-eighteenth and mid-nineteenth centuries. Additionally, since the mid-twentieth century stream flow has been regulated by a series of high dams. We used artificial markers (clay pads), tree-ring (dendrogeomorphic) techniques, and pollen analyses to document sedimentation rates/amounts over short-, intermediate-, and long-term temporal scales, respectively. These analyses occurred along 58 transects at 378 stations throughout the lower river floodplain from near the Fall Line to the Albemarle Sound. Present sediment deposition rates ranged from 0.5 to 3.4 mm/y and 0.3 to 5.9 mm/y from clay pad and dendrogeomorphic analyses, respectively. Deposition rates systematically increased from upstream (high banks and floodplain) to downstream (low banks) reaches, except the lowest reaches. Conversely, legacy sediment deposition (A.D. 1725 to 1850) ranged from 5 to about 40 mm/y, downstream to upstream, respectively, and is apparently responsible for high banks upstream and large/wide levees along some of the middle stream reaches. Dam operations have selectively reduced levee deposition while facilitating continued backswamp deposition. A GIS-based model predicts 453,000 Mg of sediment is trapped annually on the floodplain and that little watershed-derived sediment reaches the Albemarle Sound. Nearly all sediment in transport and deposited is derived from the channel bed and banks. Legacy deposits (sources) and regulated discharges affect most aspects of present fluvial sedimentation dynamics. The lower river reflects complex relaxation conditions following both major human alterations, yet continues to provide the ecosystem service of sediment trapping.

  8. Decadal-scale ecosystem memory reveals interactive effects of drought and insect defoliation on boreal forest productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Itter, M.; D'Orangeville, L.; Dawson, A.; Kneeshaw, D.; Finley, A. O.

    2017-12-01

    Drought and insect defoliation have lasting impacts on the dynamics of the boreal forest. Impacts are expected to worsen under global climate change as hotter, drier conditions forecast for much of the boreal increase the frequency and severity of drought and defoliation events. Contemporary ecological theory predicts physiological feedbacks in tree responses to drought and defoliation amplify impacts potentially causing large-scale productivity losses and forest mortality. Quantifying the interactive impacts of drought and insect defoliation on regional forest health is difficult given delayed and persistent responses to disturbance events. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate forest growth responses to interactions between drought and insect defoliation by species and size class. Delayed and persistent responses to past drought and defoliation were quantified using empirical memory functions allowing for improved detection of interactions. The model was applied to tree-ring data from stands in Western (Alberta) and Eastern (Québec) regions of the Canadian boreal forest with different species compositions, disturbance regimes, and regional climates. Western stands experience chronic water deficit and forest tent caterpillar (FTC) defoliation; Eastern stands experience irregular water deficit and spruce budworm (SBW) defoliation. Ecosystem memory to past water deficit peaked in the year previous to growth and decayed to zero within 5 (West) to 8 (East) years; memory to past defoliation ranged from 8 (West) to 12 (East) years. The drier regional climate and faster FTC defoliation dynamics (compared to SBW) likely contribute to shorter ecosystem memory in the West. Drought and defoliation had the largest negative impact on large-diameter, host tree growth. Surprisingly, a positive interaction was observed between drought and defoliation for large-diameter, non-host trees likely due to reduced stand-level competition for water. Results highlight the

  9. The Oceanic Flux Program: A three decade time-series of particle flux in the deep Sargasso Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, J. C.; Conte, M. H.

    2010-12-01

    The Oceanic Flux Program (OFP), 75 km SE of Bermuda, is the longest running time-series of its kind. Initiated in 1978, the OFP has produced an unsurpassed, nearly continuous record of temporal variability in deep ocean fluxes, with a >90% temporal coverage at 3200m depth. The OFP, in conjunction with the co-located Bermuda-Atlantic Time Series (BATS) and the Bermuda Testbed Mooring (BTM) time-series, has provided key observations enabling detailed assessment of how seasonal and non-seasonal variability in the deep ocean is linked with the overlying physical and biogeochemical environment. This talk will focus on the short-term flux variability that overlies the seasonal flux pattern in the Sargasso Sea, emphasizing episodic extreme flux events. Extreme flux events are responsible for much of the year-to-year variability in mean annual flux and are most often observed during early winter and late spring when surface stratification is weak or transient. In addition to biological phenomena (e.g. salp blooms), passage of productive meso-scale features such as eddies, which alter surface water mixing characteristics and surface export fluxes, may initiate some extreme flux events. Yet other productive eddies show a minimal influence on the deep flux, underscoring the importance of upper ocean ecosystem structure and midwater processes on the coupling between the surface ocean environment and deep fluxes. Using key organic and inorganic tracers, causative processes that influence deep flux generation and the strength of the coupling with the surface ocean environment can be identified.

  10. Physical time scale in kinetic Monte Carlo simulations of continuous-time Markov chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serebrinsky, Santiago A

    2011-03-01

    We rigorously establish a physical time scale for a general class of kinetic Monte Carlo algorithms for the simulation of continuous-time Markov chains. This class of algorithms encompasses rejection-free (or BKL) and rejection (or "standard") algorithms. For rejection algorithms, it was formerly considered that the availability of a physical time scale (instead of Monte Carlo steps) was empirical, at best. Use of Monte Carlo steps as a time unit now becomes completely unnecessary.

  11. Fractional dynamic calculus and fractional dynamic equations on time scales

    CERN Document Server

    Georgiev, Svetlin G

    2018-01-01

    Pedagogically organized, this monograph introduces fractional calculus and fractional dynamic equations on time scales in relation to mathematical physics applications and problems. Beginning with the definitions of forward and backward jump operators, the book builds from Stefan Hilger’s basic theories on time scales and examines recent developments within the field of fractional calculus and fractional equations. Useful tools are provided for solving differential and integral equations as well as various problems involving special functions of mathematical physics and their extensions and generalizations in one and more variables. Much discussion is devoted to Riemann-Liouville fractional dynamic equations and Caputo fractional dynamic equations.  Intended for use in the field and designed for students without an extensive mathematical background, this book is suitable for graduate courses and researchers looking for an introduction to fractional dynamic calculus and equations on time scales. .

  12. Mid-Holocene onset of high-amplitude decadal to centennial scale variability along the Peru Chile Margin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chazen, C. R.; Altabet, M.; Herbert, T. D.

    2008-12-01

    Understanding the natural climate variations in the eastern tropical Pacific is crucial for predicting the evolution of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system and for anticipating the ways in which increases in atmospheric CO2 will affect climate. Here we present the first continuous, high-resolution (11-12 yr) climate record across the mid-Holocene transition (10ka-1.4ka) from the Peru-Chile Margin near the epicenter of the modern ENSO system. Although the high productivity of the Peru margin should promote high deposition rates, and the anaerobic bottom water conditions should inhibit sediment mixing by benthic organisms, nearly all sediment cores recovered from this region suffer from major gaps in Holocene sedimentation. Our data comes from a ~5 meter piston core collected from the mid-Peruvian shelf (15° 15"S, 75° 58"W, ~250mwd) in the heart of the oxygen minimum/denitrification zone that provides the first uninterrupted archive of conditions along the Peru-Chile margin. A suite of geochemical proxies allow us to reconstruct sea surface temperature (SST- Uk'37), phytoplankton productivity (C37total and %BSi), and thermocline ventilation (δ15N), variables that are tightly correlated to ENSO events today. Despite the observation that the mean late Holocene state of all three variables did not change over the last 10,000 years, our data reveal a dramatic increase in climate variability after the mid Holocene (~5ka); represented by prolonged periods (50-200yrs) of climate extremes, which are absent in the early Holocene. To further investigate these climate extremes we examine benthic foraminiferal assemblages and oxygen isotopes in combination with our other proxy records in selected late Holocene sections. The roughly centennial-scale oscillations do not show typical El Niño-La Niña correlations between proxies. We therefore posit that a significant fraction of super-ENSO variance during the course of the Holocene may originate outside the tropics

  13. Time-dependent scaling patterns in high frequency financial data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nava, Noemi; Di Matteo, Tiziana; Aste, Tomaso

    2016-10-01

    We measure the influence of different time-scales on the intraday dynamics of financial markets. This is obtained by decomposing financial time series into simple oscillations associated with distinct time-scales. We propose two new time-varying measures of complexity: 1) an amplitude scaling exponent and 2) an entropy-like measure. We apply these measures to intraday, 30-second sampled prices of various stock market indices. Our results reveal intraday trends where different time-horizons contribute with variable relative amplitudes over the course of the trading day. Our findings indicate that the time series we analysed have a non-stationary multifractal nature with predominantly persistent behaviour at the middle of the trading session and anti-persistent behaviour at the opening and at the closing of the session. We demonstrate that these patterns are statistically significant, robust, reproducible and characteristic of each stock market. We argue that any modelling, analytics or trading strategy must take into account these non-stationary intraday scaling patterns.

  14. Evaluation of scaling invariance embedded in short time series.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xue Pan

    Full Text Available Scaling invariance of time series has been making great contributions in diverse research fields. But how to evaluate scaling exponent from a real-world series is still an open problem. Finite length of time series may induce unacceptable fluctuation and bias to statistical quantities and consequent invalidation of currently used standard methods. In this paper a new concept called correlation-dependent balanced estimation of diffusion entropy is developed to evaluate scale-invariance in very short time series with length ~10(2. Calculations with specified Hurst exponent values of 0.2,0.3,...,0.9 show that by using the standard central moving average de-trending procedure this method can evaluate the scaling exponents for short time series with ignorable bias (≤0.03 and sharp confidential interval (standard deviation ≤0.05. Considering the stride series from ten volunteers along an approximate oval path of a specified length, we observe that though the averages and deviations of scaling exponents are close, their evolutionary behaviors display rich patterns. It has potential use in analyzing physiological signals, detecting early warning signals, and so on. As an emphasis, the our core contribution is that by means of the proposed method one can estimate precisely shannon entropy from limited records.

  15. Evaluation of scaling invariance embedded in short time series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Xue; Hou, Lei; Stephen, Mutua; Yang, Huijie; Zhu, Chenping

    2014-01-01

    Scaling invariance of time series has been making great contributions in diverse research fields. But how to evaluate scaling exponent from a real-world series is still an open problem. Finite length of time series may induce unacceptable fluctuation and bias to statistical quantities and consequent invalidation of currently used standard methods. In this paper a new concept called correlation-dependent balanced estimation of diffusion entropy is developed to evaluate scale-invariance in very short time series with length ~10(2). Calculations with specified Hurst exponent values of 0.2,0.3,...,0.9 show that by using the standard central moving average de-trending procedure this method can evaluate the scaling exponents for short time series with ignorable bias (≤0.03) and sharp confidential interval (standard deviation ≤0.05). Considering the stride series from ten volunteers along an approximate oval path of a specified length, we observe that though the averages and deviations of scaling exponents are close, their evolutionary behaviors display rich patterns. It has potential use in analyzing physiological signals, detecting early warning signals, and so on. As an emphasis, the our core contribution is that by means of the proposed method one can estimate precisely shannon entropy from limited records.

  16. The Space-Time Conservative Schemes for Large-Scale, Time-Accurate Flow Simulations with Tetrahedral Meshes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venkatachari, Balaji Shankar; Streett, Craig L.; Chang, Chau-Lyan; Friedlander, David J.; Wang, Xiao-Yen; Chang, Sin-Chung

    2016-01-01

    Despite decades of development of unstructured mesh methods, high-fidelity time-accurate simulations are still predominantly carried out on structured, or unstructured hexahedral meshes by using high-order finite-difference, weighted essentially non-oscillatory (WENO), or hybrid schemes formed by their combinations. In this work, the space-time conservation element solution element (CESE) method is used to simulate several flow problems including supersonic jet/shock interaction and its impact on launch vehicle acoustics, and direct numerical simulations of turbulent flows using tetrahedral meshes. This paper provides a status report for the continuing development of the space-time conservation element solution element (CESE) numerical and software framework under the Revolutionary Computational Aerosciences (RCA) project. Solution accuracy and large-scale parallel performance of the numerical framework is assessed with the goal of providing a viable paradigm for future high-fidelity flow physics simulations.

  17. Nonlinear triple-point problems on time scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Douglas R. Anderson

    2004-04-01

    Full Text Available We establish the existence of multiple positive solutions to the nonlinear second-order triple-point boundary-value problem on time scales, $$displaylines{ u^{Delta abla}(t+h(tf(t,u(t=0, cr u(a=alpha u(b+delta u^Delta(a,quad eta u(c+gamma u^Delta(c=0 }$$ for $tin[a,c]subsetmathbb{T}$, where $mathbb{T}$ is a time scale, $eta, gamma, deltage 0$ with $Beta+gamma>0$, $0

  18. Dynamics symmetries of Hamiltonian system on time scales

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peng, Keke, E-mail: pengkeke88@126.com; Luo, Yiping, E-mail: zjstulyp@126.com [Department of Physics, Zhejiang Sci-Tech University, Hangzhou 310018 (China)

    2014-04-15

    In this paper, the dynamics symmetries of Hamiltonian system on time scales are studied. We study the symmetries and quantities based on the calculation of variation and Lie transformation group. Particular focus lies in: the Noether symmetry leads to the Noether conserved quantity and the Lie symmetry leads to the Noether conserved quantity if the infinitesimal transformations satisfy the structure equation. As the new application of result, at end of the article, we give a simple example of Noether symmetry and Lie symmetry on time scales.

  19. A decadal time series of water vapor and D / H isotope ratios above Zugspitze: transport patterns to central Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hausmann, Petra; Sussmann, Ralf; Trickl, Thomas; Schneider, Matthias

    2017-06-01

    We present vertical soundings (2005-2015) of tropospheric water vapor (H2O) and its D / H isotope ratio (δD) derived from ground-based solar Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) measurements at Zugspitze (47° N, 11° E, 2964 m a.s.l.). Beside water vapor profiles with optimized vertical resolution (degrees of freedom for signal, DOFS, = 2.8), {H2O, δD} pairs with consistent vertical resolution (DOFS = 1.6 for H2O and δD) applied in this study. The integrated water vapor (IWV) trend of 2.4 [-5.8, 10.6] % decade-1 is statistically insignificant (95 % confidence interval). Under this caveat, the IWV trend estimate is conditionally consistent with the 2005-2015 temperature increase at Zugspitze (1.3 [0.5, 2.1] K decade-1), assuming constant relative humidity. Seasonal variations in free-tropospheric H2O and δD exhibit amplitudes of 140 and 50 % of the respective overall means. The minima (maxima) in January (July) are in agreement with changing sea surface temperature of the Atlantic Ocean. Using extensive backward-trajectory analysis, distinct moisture pathways are identified depending on observed δD levels: low column-based δD values (δDcol 95th percentile: 46° N, 4.6 km). Backward-trajectory classification indicates that {H2O, δD} observations are influenced by three long-range-transport patterns towards Zugspitze assessed in previous studies: (i) intercontinental transport from North America (TUS; source region: 25-45° N, 70-110° W, 0-2 km altitude), (ii) intercontinental transport from northern Africa (TNA; source region: 15-30° N, 15° W-35° E, 0-2 km altitude), and (iii) stratospheric air intrusions (STIs; source region: > 20° N, above zonal mean tropopause). The FTIR data exhibit significantly differing signatures in free-tropospheric {H2O, δD} pairs (5 km a.s.l.) - given as the mean with uncertainty of ±2 standard error (SE) - for TUS (VMRH2O = 2.4 [2.3, 2.6] × 103 ppmv, δD = -315 [-326, -303] ‰), TNA (2.8 [2.6, 2.9] × 103 ppmv, -251 [-257

  20. Decadal-scale changes in dissolved-solids concentrations in groundwater used for public supply, Salt Lake Valley, Utah

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiros, Susan A.; Spangler, Larry

    2010-01-01

    Basin-fill aquifers are a major source of good-quality water for public supply in many areas of the southwestern United States and have undergone increasing development as populations have grown over time. During 2005, the basin-fill aquifer in Salt Lake Valley, Utah, provided approximately 75,000 acre-feet, or about 29 percent of the total amount of water used by a population of 967,000. Groundwater in the unconsolidated basin-fill deposits that make up the aquifer occurs under unconfined and confined conditions. Water in the shallow unconfined part of the groundwater system is susceptible to near-surface contamination and generally is not used as a source of drinking water. Groundwater for public supply is withdrawn from the deeper unconfined and confined parts of the system, termed the principal aquifer, because yields generally are greater and water quality is better (including lower dissolved-solids concentrations) than in the shallower parts of the system. Much of the water in the principal aquifer is derived from recharge in the adjacent Wasatch Range (mountain-block recharge). In many areas, the principal aquifer is separated from the overlying shallow aquifer by confining layers of less permeable, fine-grained sediment that inhibit the downward movement of water and any potential contaminants from the surface. Nonetheless, under certain hydrologic conditions, human-related activities can increase dissolved-solids concentrations in the principal aquifer and result in groundwater becoming unsuitable for consumption without treatment or mixing with water having lower dissolved-solids concentrations. Dissolved-solids concentrations in areas of the principal aquifer used for public supply typically are less than 500 milligrams per liter (mg/L), the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) secondary (nonenforceable) drinking-water standard. However, substantial increases in dissolved-solids concentrations in the principal aquifer have been documented in some

  1. Cognitive componets of speech at different time scales

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Feng, Ling; Hansen, Lars Kai

    2007-01-01

    Cognitive component analysis (COCA) is defined as unsupervised grouping of data leading to a group structure well aligned with that resulting from human cognitive activity. We focus here on speech at different time scales looking for possible hidden ‘cognitive structure’. Statistical regularities...

  2. Development of the Free Time Motivation Scale for Adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldwin, Cheryl K.; Caldwell, Linda L.

    2003-01-01

    Developed a self-report measure of adolescent free time motivation based in self-determination theory, using data from 634 seventh graders. The scale measured five forms of motivation (amotivation, external, introjected, identified, and intrinsic motivation). Examination of each of the subscales indicated minimally acceptable levels of fit. The…

  3. Vibration amplitude rule study for rotor under large time scale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang Xuan; Zuo Jianli; Duan Changcheng

    2014-01-01

    The rotor is an important part of the rotating machinery; its vibration performance is one of the important factors affecting the service life. This paper presents both theoretical analyses and experimental demonstrations of the vibration rule of the rotor under large time scales. The rule can be used for the service life estimation of the rotor. (authors)

  4. Multiple time scales of adaptation in auditory cortex neurons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ulanovsky, Nachum; Las, Liora; Farkas, Dina; Nelken, Israel

    2004-11-17

    Neurons in primary auditory cortex (A1) of cats show strong stimulus-specific adaptation (SSA). In probabilistic settings, in which one stimulus is common and another is rare, responses to common sounds adapt more strongly than responses to rare sounds. This SSA could be a correlate of auditory sensory memory at the level of single A1 neurons. Here we studied adaptation in A1 neurons, using three different probabilistic designs. We showed that SSA has several time scales concurrently, spanning many orders of magnitude, from hundreds of milliseconds to tens of seconds. Similar time scales are known for the auditory memory span of humans, as measured both psychophysically and using evoked potentials. A simple model, with linear dependence on both short-term and long-term stimulus history, provided a good fit to A1 responses. Auditory thalamus neurons did not show SSA, and their responses were poorly fitted by the same model. In addition, SSA increased the proportion of failures in the responses of A1 neurons to the adapting stimulus. Finally, SSA caused a bias in the neuronal responses to unbiased stimuli, enhancing the responses to eccentric stimuli. Therefore, we propose that a major function of SSA in A1 neurons is to encode auditory sensory memory on multiple time scales. This SSA might play a role in stream segregation and in binding of auditory objects over many time scales, a property that is crucial for processing of natural auditory scenes in cats and of speech and music in humans.

  5. THEORETICAL REVIEW The Hippocampus, Time, and Memory Across Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard, Marc W.; Eichenbaum, Howard

    2014-01-01

    A wealth of experimental studies with animals have offered insights about how neural networks within the hippocampus support the temporal organization of memories. These studies have revealed the existence of “time cells” that encode moments in time, much as the well-known “place cells” map locations in space. Another line of work inspired by human behavioral studies suggests that episodic memories are mediated by a state of temporal context that changes gradually over long time scales, up to at least a few thousand seconds. In this view, the “mental time travel” hypothesized to support the experience of episodic memory corresponds to a “jump back in time” in which a previous state of temporal context is recovered. We suggest that these 2 sets of findings could be different facets of a representation of temporal history that maintains a record at the last few thousand seconds of experience. The ability to represent long time scales comes at the cost of discarding precise information about when a stimulus was experienced—this uncertainty becomes greater for events further in the past. We review recent computational work that describes a mechanism that could construct such a scale-invariant representation. Taken as a whole, this suggests the hippocampus plays its role in multiple aspects of cognition by representing events embedded in a general spatiotemporal context. The representation of internal time can be useful across nonhippocampal memory systems. PMID:23915126

  6. Past and future changes in streamflow in the U.S. Midwest: Bridging across time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villarini, G.; Slater, L. J.; Salvi, K. A.

    2017-12-01

    Streamflows have increased notably across the U.S. Midwest over the past century, principally due to changes in precipitation and land use / land cover. Improving our understanding of the physical drivers that are responsible for the observed changes in discharge may enhance our capability of predicting and projecting these changes, and may have large implications for water resources management over this area. This study will highlight our efforts towards the statistical attribution of changes in discharge across the U.S. Midwest, with analyses performed at the seasonal scale from low to high flows. The main drivers of changing streamflows that we focus on are: urbanization, agricultural land cover, basin-averaged temperature, basin-averaged precipitation, and antecedent soil moisture. Building on the insights from this attribution, we will examine the potential predictability of streamflow across different time scales, with lead times ranging from seasonal to decadal, and discuss a potential path forward for engineering design for future conditions.

  7. Changes in clinical trials methodology over time: a systematic review of six decades of research in psychopharmacology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunoni, André R; Tadini, Laura; Fregni, Felipe

    2010-03-03

    There have been many changes in clinical trials methodology since the introduction of lithium and the beginning of the modern era of psychopharmacology in 1949. The nature and importance of these changes have not been fully addressed to date. As methodological flaws in trials can lead to false-negative or false-positive results, the objective of our study was to evaluate the impact of methodological changes in psychopharmacology clinical research over the past 60 years. We performed a systematic review from 1949 to 2009 on MEDLINE and Web of Science electronic databases, and a hand search of high impact journals on studies of seven major drugs (chlorpromazine, clozapine, risperidone, lithium, fluoxetine and lamotrigine). All controlled studies published 100 months after the first trial were included. Ninety-one studies met our inclusion criteria. We analyzed the major changes in abstract reporting, study design, participants' assessment and enrollment, methodology and statistical analysis. Our results showed that the methodology of psychiatric clinical trials changed substantially, with quality gains in abstract reporting, results reporting, and statistical methodology. Recent trials use more informed consent, periods of washout, intention-to-treat approach and parametric tests. Placebo use remains high and unchanged over time. Clinical trial quality of psychopharmacological studies has changed significantly in most of the aspects we analyzed. There was significant improvement in quality reporting and internal validity. These changes have increased study efficiency; however, there is room for improvement in some aspects such as rating scales, diagnostic criteria and better trial reporting. Therefore, despite the advancements observed, there are still several areas that can be improved in psychopharmacology clinical trials.

  8. Changes in clinical trials methodology over time: a systematic review of six decades of research in psychopharmacology.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    André R Brunoni

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available There have been many changes in clinical trials methodology since the introduction of lithium and the beginning of the modern era of psychopharmacology in 1949. The nature and importance of these changes have not been fully addressed to date. As methodological flaws in trials can lead to false-negative or false-positive results, the objective of our study was to evaluate the impact of methodological changes in psychopharmacology clinical research over the past 60 years.We performed a systematic review from 1949 to 2009 on MEDLINE and Web of Science electronic databases, and a hand search of high impact journals on studies of seven major drugs (chlorpromazine, clozapine, risperidone, lithium, fluoxetine and lamotrigine. All controlled studies published 100 months after the first trial were included. Ninety-one studies met our inclusion criteria. We analyzed the major changes in abstract reporting, study design, participants' assessment and enrollment, methodology and statistical analysis. Our results showed that the methodology of psychiatric clinical trials changed substantially, with quality gains in abstract reporting, results reporting, and statistical methodology. Recent trials use more informed consent, periods of washout, intention-to-treat approach and parametric tests. Placebo use remains high and unchanged over time.Clinical trial quality of psychopharmacological studies has changed significantly in most of the aspects we analyzed. There was significant improvement in quality reporting and internal validity. These changes have increased study efficiency; however, there is room for improvement in some aspects such as rating scales, diagnostic criteria and better trial reporting. Therefore, despite the advancements observed, there are still several areas that can be improved in psychopharmacology clinical trials.

  9. Time scale algorithm: Definition of ensemble time and possible uses of the Kalman filter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tavella, Patrizia; Thomas, Claudine

    1990-01-01

    The comparative study of two time scale algorithms, devised to satisfy different but related requirements, is presented. They are ALGOS(BIPM), producing the international reference TAI at the Bureau International des Poids et Mesures, and AT1(NIST), generating the real-time time scale AT1 at the National Institute of Standards and Technology. In each case, the time scale is a weighted average of clock readings, but the weight determination and the frequency prediction are different because they are adapted to different purposes. The possibility of using a mathematical tool, such as the Kalman filter, together with the definition of the time scale as a weighted average, is also analyzed. Results obtained by simulation are presented.

  10. Time scale controversy: Accurate orbital calibration of the early Paleogene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roehl, U.; Westerhold, T.; Laskar, J.

    2012-12-01

    Timing is crucial to understanding the causes and consequences of events in Earth history. The calibration of geological time relies heavily on the accuracy of radioisotopic and astronomical dating. Uncertainties in the computations of Earth's orbital parameters and in radioisotopic dating have hampered the construction of a reliable astronomically calibrated time scale beyond 40 Ma. Attempts to construct a robust astronomically tuned time scale for the early Paleogene by integrating radioisotopic and astronomical dating are only partially consistent. Here, using the new La2010 and La2011 orbital solutions, we present the first accurate astronomically calibrated time scale for the early Paleogene (47-65 Ma) uniquely based on astronomical tuning and thus independent of the radioisotopic determination of the Fish Canyon standard. Comparison with geological data confirms the stability of the new La2011 solution back to 54 Ma. Subsequent anchoring of floating chronologies to the La2011 solution using the very long eccentricity nodes provides an absolute age of 55.530 ± 0.05 Ma for the onset of the Paleocene/Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), 54.850 ± 0.05 Ma for the early Eocene ash -17, and 65.250 ± 0.06 Ma for the K/Pg boundary. The new astrochronology presented here indicates that the intercalibration and synchronization of U/Pb and 40Ar/39Ar radioisotopic geochronology is much more challenging than previously thought.

  11. Decoding the Mobility and Time Scales of Protein Loops.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Yina; Li, Da-Wei; Brüschweiler, Rafael

    2015-03-10

    The flexible nature of protein loops and the time scales of their dynamics are critical for many biologically important events at the molecular level, such as protein interaction and recognition processes. In order to obtain a predictive understanding of the dynamic properties of loops, 500 ns molecular dynamics (MD) computer simulations of 38 different proteins were performed and validated using NMR chemical shifts. A total of 169 loops were analyzed and classified into three types, namely fast loops with correlation times Web server (http://spin.ccic.ohio-state.edu/index.php/loop). The results demonstrate that loop dynamics with their time scales can be predicted rapidly with reasonable accuracy, which will allow the screening of average protein structures to help better understand the various roles loops can play in the context of protein-protein interactions and binding.

  12. Human learning: Power laws or multiple characteristic time scales?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gottfried Mayer-Kress

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available The central proposal of A. Newell and Rosenbloom (1981 was that the power law is the ubiquitous law of learning. This proposition is discussed in the context of the key factors that led to the acceptance of the power law as the function of learning. We then outline the principles of an epigenetic landscape framework for considering the role of the characteristic time scales of learning and an approach to system identification of the processes of performance dynamics. In this view, the change of performance over time is the product of a superposition of characteristic exponential time scales that reflect the influence of different processes. This theoretical approach can reproduce the traditional power law of practice – within the experimental resolution of performance data sets - but we hypothesize that this function may prove to be a special and perhaps idealized case of learning.

  13. Real-time simulation of large-scale floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Q.; Qin, Y.; Li, G. D.; Liu, Z.; Cheng, D. J.; Zhao, Y. H.

    2016-08-01

    According to the complex real-time water situation, the real-time simulation of large-scale floods is very important for flood prevention practice. Model robustness and running efficiency are two critical factors in successful real-time flood simulation. This paper proposed a robust, two-dimensional, shallow water model based on the unstructured Godunov- type finite volume method. A robust wet/dry front method is used to enhance the numerical stability. An adaptive method is proposed to improve the running efficiency. The proposed model is used for large-scale flood simulation on real topography. Results compared to those of MIKE21 show the strong performance of the proposed model.

  14. Multi-Scale Dissemination of Time Series Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guo, Qingsong; Zhou, Yongluan; Su, Li

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we consider the problem of continuous dissemination of time series data, such as sensor measurements, to a large number of subscribers. These subscribers fall into multiple subscription levels, where each subscription level is specified by the bandwidth constraint of a subscriber......, which is an abstract indicator for both the physical limits and the amount of data that the subscriber would like to handle. To handle this problem, we propose a system framework for multi-scale time series data dissemination that employs a typical tree-based dissemination network and existing time...

  15. A model for AGN variability on multiple time-scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sartori, Lia F.; Schawinski, Kevin; Trakhtenbrot, Benny; Caplar, Neven; Treister, Ezequiel; Koss, Michael J.; Urry, C. Megan; Zhang, C. E.

    2018-05-01

    We present a framework to link and describe active galactic nuclei (AGN) variability on a wide range of time-scales, from days to billions of years. In particular, we concentrate on the AGN variability features related to changes in black hole fuelling and accretion rate. In our framework, the variability features observed in different AGN at different time-scales may be explained as realisations of the same underlying statistical properties. In this context, we propose a model to simulate the evolution of AGN light curves with time based on the probability density function (PDF) and power spectral density (PSD) of the Eddington ratio (L/LEdd) distribution. Motivated by general galaxy population properties, we propose that the PDF may be inspired by the L/LEdd distribution function (ERDF), and that a single (or limited number of) ERDF+PSD set may explain all observed variability features. After outlining the framework and the model, we compile a set of variability measurements in terms of structure function (SF) and magnitude difference. We then combine the variability measurements on a SF plot ranging from days to Gyr. The proposed framework enables constraints on the underlying PSD and the ability to link AGN variability on different time-scales, therefore providing new insights into AGN variability and black hole growth phenomena.

  16. Selective visual scaling of time-scale processes facilitates broadband learning of isometric force frequency tracking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Adam C; Newell, Karl M

    2015-10-01

    The experiment investigated the effect of selectively augmenting faster time scales of visual feedback information on the learning and transfer of continuous isometric force tracking tasks to test the generality of the self-organization of 1/f properties of force output. Three experimental groups tracked an irregular target pattern either under a standard fixed gain condition or with selectively enhancement in the visual feedback display of intermediate (4-8 Hz) or high (8-12 Hz) frequency components of the force output. All groups reduced tracking error over practice, with the error lowest in the intermediate scaling condition followed by the high scaling and fixed gain conditions, respectively. Selective visual scaling induced persistent changes across the frequency spectrum, with the strongest effect in the intermediate scaling condition and positive transfer to novel feedback displays. The findings reveal an interdependence of the timescales in the learning and transfer of isometric force output frequency structures consistent with 1/f process models of the time scales of motor output variability.

  17. Time scale of diffusion in molecular and cellular biology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holcman, D; Schuss, Z

    2014-01-01

    Diffusion is the driver of critical biological processes in cellular and molecular biology. The diverse temporal scales of cellular function are determined by vastly diverse spatial scales in most biophysical processes. The latter are due, among others, to small binding sites inside or on the cell membrane or to narrow passages between large cellular compartments. The great disparity in scales is at the root of the difficulty in quantifying cell function from molecular dynamics and from simulations. The coarse-grained time scale of cellular function is determined from molecular diffusion by the mean first passage time of molecular Brownian motion to a small targets or through narrow passages. The narrow escape theory (NET) concerns this issue. The NET is ubiquitous in molecular and cellular biology and is manifested, among others, in chemical reactions, in the calculation of the effective diffusion coefficient of receptors diffusing on a neuronal cell membrane strewn with obstacles, in the quantification of the early steps of viral trafficking, in the regulation of diffusion between the mother and daughter cells during cell division, and many other cases. Brownian trajectories can represent the motion of a molecule, a protein, an ion in solution, a receptor in a cell or on its membrane, and many other biochemical processes. The small target can represent a binding site or an ionic channel, a hidden active site embedded in a complex protein structure, a receptor for a neurotransmitter on the membrane of a neuron, and so on. The mean time to attach to a receptor or activator determines diffusion fluxes that are key regulators of cell function. This review describes physical models of various subcellular microdomains, in which the NET coarse-grains the molecular scale to a higher cellular-level, thus clarifying the role of cell geometry in determining subcellular function. (topical review)

  18. Time scale of diffusion in molecular and cellular biology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holcman, D.; Schuss, Z.

    2014-05-01

    Diffusion is the driver of critical biological processes in cellular and molecular biology. The diverse temporal scales of cellular function are determined by vastly diverse spatial scales in most biophysical processes. The latter are due, among others, to small binding sites inside or on the cell membrane or to narrow passages between large cellular compartments. The great disparity in scales is at the root of the difficulty in quantifying cell function from molecular dynamics and from simulations. The coarse-grained time scale of cellular function is determined from molecular diffusion by the mean first passage time of molecular Brownian motion to a small targets or through narrow passages. The narrow escape theory (NET) concerns this issue. The NET is ubiquitous in molecular and cellular biology and is manifested, among others, in chemical reactions, in the calculation of the effective diffusion coefficient of receptors diffusing on a neuronal cell membrane strewn with obstacles, in the quantification of the early steps of viral trafficking, in the regulation of diffusion between the mother and daughter cells during cell division, and many other cases. Brownian trajectories can represent the motion of a molecule, a protein, an ion in solution, a receptor in a cell or on its membrane, and many other biochemical processes. The small target can represent a binding site or an ionic channel, a hidden active site embedded in a complex protein structure, a receptor for a neurotransmitter on the membrane of a neuron, and so on. The mean time to attach to a receptor or activator determines diffusion fluxes that are key regulators of cell function. This review describes physical models of various subcellular microdomains, in which the NET coarse-grains the molecular scale to a higher cellular-level, thus clarifying the role of cell geometry in determining subcellular function.

  19. HMC algorithm with multiple time scale integration and mass preconditioning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urbach, C.; Jansen, K.; Shindler, A.; Wenger, U.

    2006-01-01

    We present a variant of the HMC algorithm with mass preconditioning (Hasenbusch acceleration) and multiple time scale integration. We have tested this variant for standard Wilson fermions at β=5.6 and at pion masses ranging from 380 to 680 MeV. We show that in this situation its performance is comparable to the recently proposed HMC variant with domain decomposition as preconditioner. We give an update of the "Berlin Wall" figure, comparing the performance of our variant of the HMC algorithm to other published performance data. Advantages of the HMC algorithm with mass preconditioning and multiple time scale integration are that it is straightforward to implement and can be used in combination with a wide variety of lattice Dirac operators.

  20. Nonlinear MHD dynamics of tokamak plasmas on multiple time scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kruger, S.E.; Schnack, D.D.; Brennan, D.P.; Gianakon, T.A.; Sovinec, C.R.

    2003-01-01

    Two types of numerical, nonlinear simulations using the NIMROD code are presented. In the first simulation, we model the disruption occurring in DIII-D discharge 87009 as an ideal MHD instability driven unstable by neutral-beam heating. The mode grows faster than exponential, but on a time scale that is a hybrid of the heating rate and the ideal MHD growth rate as predicted by analytic theory. The second type of simulations, which occur on a much longer time scale, focus on the seeding of tearing modes by sawteeth. Pressure effects play a role both in the exterior region solutions and in the neoclassical drive terms. The results of both simulations are reviewed and their implications for experimental analysis is discussed. (author)

  1. The length and time scales of water's glass transitions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Limmer, David T.

    2014-06-01

    Using a general model for the equilibrium dynamics of supercooled liquids, I compute from molecular properties the emergent length and time scales that govern the nonequilibrium relaxation behavior of amorphous ice prepared by rapid cooling. Upon cooling, the liquid water falls out of equilibrium whereby the temperature dependence of its relaxation time is predicted to change from super-Arrhenius to Arrhenius. A consequence of this crossover is that the location of the apparent glass transition temperature depends logarithmically on cooling rate. Accompanying vitrification is the emergence of a dynamical length-scale, the size of which depends on the cooling rate and varies between angstroms and tens of nanometers. While this protocol dependence clarifies a number of previous experimental observations for amorphous ice, the arguments are general and can be extended to other glass forming liquids.

  2. The length and time scales of water's glass transitions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Limmer, David T

    2014-06-07

    Using a general model for the equilibrium dynamics of supercooled liquids, I compute from molecular properties the emergent length and time scales that govern the nonequilibrium relaxation behavior of amorphous ice prepared by rapid cooling. Upon cooling, the liquid water falls out of equilibrium whereby the temperature dependence of its relaxation time is predicted to change from super-Arrhenius to Arrhenius. A consequence of this crossover is that the location of the apparent glass transition temperature depends logarithmically on cooling rate. Accompanying vitrification is the emergence of a dynamical length-scale, the size of which depends on the cooling rate and varies between angstroms and tens of nanometers. While this protocol dependence clarifies a number of previous experimental observations for amorphous ice, the arguments are general and can be extended to other glass forming liquids.

  3. The fission time scale measured with an atomic clock

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kravchuk, VL; Wilschut, HW; Hunyadi, M; Kopecky, S; Lohner, H; Rogachevskiy, A; Siemssen, RH; Krasznahorkay, A; Hamilton, JH; Ramayya, AV; Carter, HK

    2003-01-01

    We present a new direct method of measuring the fission absolute time scale using an atomic clock based on the lifetime of a vacancy in the atomic K-shell. We studied the reaction Ne-20 + Th-232 -> O-16 + U-236* at 30 MeV/u. The excitation energy of about 115 MeV in such a reaction is in the range

  4. Spatiotemporal patterns of drought at various time scales in Shandong Province of Eastern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuo, Depeng; Cai, Siyang; Xu, Zongxue; Li, Fulin; Sun, Wenchao; Yang, Xiaojing; Kan, Guangyuan; Liu, Pin

    2018-01-01

    The temporal variations and spatial patterns of drought in Shandong Province of Eastern China were investigated by calculating the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) at 1-, 3-, 6-, 12-, and 24-month time scales. Monthly precipitation and air temperature time series during the period 1960-2012 were collected at 23 meteorological stations uniformly distributed over the region. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test was used to explore the temporal trends of precipitation, air temperature, and the SPEI drought index. S-mode principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to identify the spatial patterns of drought. The results showed that an insignificant decreasing trend in annual total precipitation was detected at most stations, a significant increase of annual average air temperature occurred at all the 23 stations, and a significant decreasing trend in the SPEI was mainly detected at the coastal stations for all the time scales. The frequency of occurrence of extreme and severe drought at different time scales generally increased with decades; higher frequency and larger affected area of extreme and severe droughts occurred as the time scale increased, especially for the northwest of Shandong Province and Jiaodong peninsular. The spatial pattern of drought for SPEI-1 contains three regions: eastern Jiaodong Peninsular and northwestern and southern Shandong. As the time scale increased to 3, 6, and 12 months, the order of the three regions was transformed into another as northwestern Shandong, eastern Jiaodong Peninsular, and southern Shandong. For SPEI-24, the location identified by REOF1 was slightly shifted from northwestern Shandong to western Shandong, and REOF2 and REOF3 identified another two weak patterns in the south edge and north edge of Jiaodong Peninsular, respectively. The potential causes of drought and the impact of drought on agriculture in the study area have also been discussed. The temporal variations and spatial patterns

  5. Diffusion time scales and accretion in the sun

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Michaud, G.

    1977-01-01

    It is thought that surface abundances in the Sun could be due largely to accretion either of comets or grains, and it has been suggested that if surface convection zones were smaller than is usually indicated by model calculations, accretion would be especially important. Unless the zone immediately below the surface convection zone is sufficiently stable for diffusion to be important, other transport processes, such as turbulence and meridional circulation, more efficient than diffusion, will tend to homogenise the Sun. Diffusion is the slowest of the transport processes and will become important when other transport processes become inoperative. Using diffusion theory the minimum mass of the convection zone can be determined in order that transport processes at the bottom of the zone are not to influence abundances in the convection zone. If diffusion time scales are shorter than the life of the star (Sun) diffusion will modify the abundances in the convection zone. The mass in the convection zone for which diffusion time scales are equal to the life of the star on the main sequence then determines the minimum mass in the convection zone that justifies neglect of transport processes at the bottom of the convection zone. It is calculated here that, for the Sun, this mass is between 3 x 10 -3 and 10 -2 solar mass, and a general explosion is derived for the diffusion time scale as a function of the mass of the convection zone. (U.K.)

  6. Backpropagation and ordered derivatives in the time scales calculus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seiffertt, John; Wunsch, Donald C

    2010-08-01

    Backpropagation is the most widely used neural network learning technique. It is based on the mathematical notion of an ordered derivative. In this paper, we present a formulation of ordered derivatives and the backpropagation training algorithm using the important emerging area of mathematics known as the time scales calculus. This calculus, with its potential for application to a wide variety of inter-disciplinary problems, is becoming a key area of mathematics. It is capable of unifying continuous and discrete analysis within one coherent theoretical framework. Using this calculus, we present here a generalization of backpropagation which is appropriate for cases beyond the specifically continuous or discrete. We develop a new multivariate chain rule of this calculus, define ordered derivatives on time scales, prove a key theorem about them, and derive the backpropagation weight update equations for a feedforward multilayer neural network architecture. By drawing together the time scales calculus and the area of neural network learning, we present the first connection of two major fields of research.

  7. Atomistic simulations of graphite etching at realistic time scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aussems, D U B; Bal, K M; Morgan, T W; van de Sanden, M C M; Neyts, E C

    2017-10-01

    Hydrogen-graphite interactions are relevant to a wide variety of applications, ranging from astrophysics to fusion devices and nano-electronics. In order to shed light on these interactions, atomistic simulation using Molecular Dynamics (MD) has been shown to be an invaluable tool. It suffers, however, from severe time-scale limitations. In this work we apply the recently developed Collective Variable-Driven Hyperdynamics (CVHD) method to hydrogen etching of graphite for varying inter-impact times up to a realistic value of 1 ms, which corresponds to a flux of ∼10 20 m -2 s -1 . The results show that the erosion yield, hydrogen surface coverage and species distribution are significantly affected by the time between impacts. This can be explained by the higher probability of C-C bond breaking due to the prolonged exposure to thermal stress and the subsequent transition from ion- to thermal-induced etching. This latter regime of thermal-induced etching - chemical erosion - is here accessed for the first time using atomistic simulations. In conclusion, this study demonstrates that accounting for long time-scales significantly affects ion bombardment simulations and should not be neglected in a wide range of conditions, in contrast to what is typically assumed.

  8. Job Satisfaction of American Part-Time College Faculty: Results from a National Study a Decade Later

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antony, James Soto; Hayden, Ruby A.

    2011-01-01

    Earlier research published in this journal examined factors associated with various forms of job satisfaction among part-time faculty, both at four-year institutions and community colleges. This research forwarded conclusions at odds with popular accounts regarding part-time faculty. Specifically, it was demonstrated that part-time faculty were…

  9. Quantum universe on extremely small space-time scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuzmichev, V.E.; Kuzmichev, V.V.

    2010-01-01

    The semiclassical approach to the quantum geometrodynamical model is used for the description of the properties of the Universe on extremely small space-time scales. Under this approach, the matter in the Universe has two components of the quantum nature which behave as antigravitating fluids. The first component does not vanish in the limit h → 0 and can be associated with dark energy. The second component is described by an extremely rigid equation of state and goes to zero after the transition to large spacetime scales. On small space-time scales, this quantum correction turns out to be significant. It determines the geometry of the Universe near the initial cosmological singularity point. This geometry is conformal to a unit four-sphere embedded in a five-dimensional Euclidean flat space. During the consequent expansion of the Universe, when reaching the post-Planck era, the geometry of the Universe changes into that conformal to a unit four-hyperboloid in a five-dimensional Lorentzsignatured flat space. This agrees with the hypothesis about the possible change of geometry after the origin of the expanding Universe from the region near the initial singularity point. The origin of the Universe can be interpreted as a quantum transition of the system from a region in the phase space forbidden for the classical motion, but where a trajectory in imaginary time exists, into a region, where the equations of motion have the solution which describes the evolution of the Universe in real time. Near the boundary between two regions, from the side of real time, the Universe undergoes almost an exponential expansion which passes smoothly into the expansion under the action of radiation dominating over matter which is described by the standard cosmological model.

  10. Scale and time dependence of serial correlations in word-length time series of written texts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, E.; Aguilar-Cornejo, M.; Femat, R.; Alvarez-Ramirez, J.

    2014-11-01

    This work considered the quantitative analysis of large written texts. To this end, the text was converted into a time series by taking the sequence of word lengths. The detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) was used for characterizing long-range serial correlations of the time series. To this end, the DFA was implemented within a rolling window framework for estimating the variations of correlations, quantified in terms of the scaling exponent, strength along the text. Also, a filtering derivative was used to compute the dependence of the scaling exponent relative to the scale. The analysis was applied to three famous English-written literary narrations; namely, Alice in Wonderland (by Lewis Carrol), Dracula (by Bram Stoker) and Sense and Sensibility (by Jane Austen). The results showed that high correlations appear for scales of about 50-200 words, suggesting that at these scales the text contains the stronger coherence. The scaling exponent was not constant along the text, showing important variations with apparent cyclical behavior. An interesting coincidence between the scaling exponent variations and changes in narrative units (e.g., chapters) was found. This suggests that the scaling exponent obtained from the DFA is able to detect changes in narration structure as expressed by the usage of words of different lengths.

  11. The swan song in context: long-time-scale X-ray variability of NGC 4051

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uttley, P.; McHardy, I. M.; Papadakis, I. E.; Guainazzi, M.; Fruscione, A.

    1999-07-01

    On 1998 May 9-11, the highly variable, low-luminosity Seyfert 1 galaxy NGC 4051 was observed in an unusual low-flux state by BeppoSAX, RXTE and EUVE. We present fits of the 4-15keV RXTE spectrum and BeppoSAX MECS spectrum obtained during this observation, which are consistent with the interpretation that the source had switched off, leaving only the spectrum of pure reflection from distant cold matter. We place this result in context by showing the X-ray light curve of NGC 4051 obtained by our RXTE monitoring campaign over the past two and a half years, which shows that the low state lasted for ~150d before the May observations (implying that the reflecting material is >10^17cm from the continuum source) and forms part of a light curve showing distinct variations in long-term average flux over time-scales > months. We show that the long-time-scale component to X-ray variability is intrinsic to the primary continuum and is probably distinct from the variability at shorter time-scales. The long-time-scale component to variability maybe associated with variations in the accretion flow of matter on to the central black hole. As the source approaches the low state, the variability process becomes non-linear. NGC 4051 may represent a microcosm of all X-ray variability in radio-quiet active galactic nuclei (AGNs), displaying in a few years a variety of flux states and variability properties which more luminous AGNs may pass through on time-scales of decades to thousands of years.

  12. A hierarchy of time-scales and the brain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiebel, Stefan J; Daunizeau, Jean; Friston, Karl J

    2008-11-01

    In this paper, we suggest that cortical anatomy recapitulates the temporal hierarchy that is inherent in the dynamics of environmental states. Many aspects of brain function can be understood in terms of a hierarchy of temporal scales at which representations of the environment evolve. The lowest level of this hierarchy corresponds to fast fluctuations associated with sensory processing, whereas the highest levels encode slow contextual changes in the environment, under which faster representations unfold. First, we describe a mathematical model that exploits the temporal structure of fast sensory input to track the slower trajectories of their underlying causes. This model of sensory encoding or perceptual inference establishes a proof of concept that slowly changing neuronal states can encode the paths or trajectories of faster sensory states. We then review empirical evidence that suggests that a temporal hierarchy is recapitulated in the macroscopic organization of the cortex. This anatomic-temporal hierarchy provides a comprehensive framework for understanding cortical function: the specific time-scale that engages a cortical area can be inferred by its location along a rostro-caudal gradient, which reflects the anatomical distance from primary sensory areas. This is most evident in the prefrontal cortex, where complex functions can be explained as operations on representations of the environment that change slowly. The framework provides predictions about, and principled constraints on, cortical structure-function relationships, which can be tested by manipulating the time-scales of sensory input.

  13. A hierarchy of time-scales and the brain.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan J Kiebel

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we suggest that cortical anatomy recapitulates the temporal hierarchy that is inherent in the dynamics of environmental states. Many aspects of brain function can be understood in terms of a hierarchy of temporal scales at which representations of the environment evolve. The lowest level of this hierarchy corresponds to fast fluctuations associated with sensory processing, whereas the highest levels encode slow contextual changes in the environment, under which faster representations unfold. First, we describe a mathematical model that exploits the temporal structure of fast sensory input to track the slower trajectories of their underlying causes. This model of sensory encoding or perceptual inference establishes a proof of concept that slowly changing neuronal states can encode the paths or trajectories of faster sensory states. We then review empirical evidence that suggests that a temporal hierarchy is recapitulated in the macroscopic organization of the cortex. This anatomic-temporal hierarchy provides a comprehensive framework for understanding cortical function: the specific time-scale that engages a cortical area can be inferred by its location along a rostro-caudal gradient, which reflects the anatomical distance from primary sensory areas. This is most evident in the prefrontal cortex, where complex functions can be explained as operations on representations of the environment that change slowly. The framework provides predictions about, and principled constraints on, cortical structure-function relationships, which can be tested by manipulating the time-scales of sensory input.

  14. Phytoplankton Biomass Dynamics in the Strait of Malacca within the Period of the SeaWiFS Full Mission: Seasonal Cycles, Interannual Variations and Decadal-Scale Trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eko Siswanto

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Seasonal cycles, interannual variations and decadal trends of Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS-retrieved chlorophyll-a concentration (Chl-a in the Strait of Malacca (SM were investigated with reconstructed, cloud-free SeaWiFS Chl-a during the period of the SeaWiFS full mission (September 1997 to December 2010. Pixel-based non-parametric correlations of SeaWiFS Chl-a on environmental variables were used to identify the probable causes of the observed spatio-temporal variations of SeaWiFS Chl-a in northern, middle and southern regions of the SM. Chl-a was high (low during the northeast (southwest monsoon. The principal causes of the seasonality were wind-driven vertical mixing in the northern region and wind-driven coastal upwelling and possibly river discharges in the middle region. Among the three regions, the southern region showed the largest interannual variations of Chl-a. These variations were associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO and river runoff. Interannual variations of Chl-a in the middle and northern regions were more responsive to the Indian Ocean Dipole and ENSO, respectively, with atmospheric deposition being the most important driver. The most significant decadal-scale trend of increasing Chl-a was in the southern region; the trend was moderate in the middle region. This increasing trend was probably caused by environmental changes unrelated to the variables investigated in this study.

  15. Decay of surface nanostructures via long-time-scale dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voter, A.F.; Stanciu, N.

    1998-01-01

    This is the final report of a three-year, Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The authors have developed a new approach for extending the time scale of molecular dynamics simulations. For infrequent-event systems, the category that includes most diffusive events in the solid phase, this hyperdynamics method can extend the simulation time by a few orders of magnitude compared to direct molecular dynamics. The trajectory is run on a potential surface that has been biased to raise the energy in the potential basins without affecting the transition state region. The method is described and applied to surface and bulk diffusion processes, achieving microsecond and millisecond simulation times. The authors have also developed a new parallel computing method that is efficient for small system sizes. The combination of the hyperdynamics with this parallel replica dynamics looks promising as a general materials simulation tool

  16. Time scaling internal state predictive control of a solar plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silva, R.N. [DEE-FCT/UNL, Caparica (Portugal); Rato, L.M. [INESC-ID/University, Evora (Portugal); Lemos, J.M. [INESC-ID/IST, Lisboa (Portugal)

    2003-12-01

    The control of a distributed collector solar field is addressed in this work, exploiting the plant's transport characteristic. The plant is modeled by a hyperbolic type partial differential equation (PDE) where the transport speed is the manipulated flow, i.e. the controller output. The model has an external distributed source, which is the solar radiation captured along the collector, approximated to depend only of time. From the solution of the PDE, a linear discrete state space model is obtained by using time-scaling and the redefinition of the control input. This method allows overcoming the dependency of the time constants with the operating point. A model-based predictive adaptive controller is derived with the internal temperature distribution estimated with a state observer. Experimental results at the solar power plant are presented, illustrating the advantages of the approach under consideration. (author)

  17. Multiple time-scale methods in particle simulations of plasmas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohen, B.I.

    1985-01-01

    This paper surveys recent advances in the application of multiple time-scale methods to particle simulation of collective phenomena in plasmas. These methods dramatically improve the efficiency of simulating low-frequency kinetic behavior by allowing the use of a large timestep, while retaining accuracy. The numerical schemes surveyed provide selective damping of unwanted high-frequency waves and preserve numerical stability in a variety of physics models: electrostatic, magneto-inductive, Darwin and fully electromagnetic. The paper reviews hybrid simulation models, the implicitmoment-equation method, the direct implicit method, orbit averaging, and subcycling

  18. Decadal shifts in autumn migration timing by Pacific Arctic beluga whales are related to delayed annual sea ice formation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauser, Donna D W; Laidre, Kristin L; Stafford, Kathleen M; Stern, Harry L; Suydam, Robert S; Richard, Pierre R

    2017-06-01

    Migrations are often influenced by seasonal environmental gradients that are increasingly being altered by climate change. The consequences of rapid changes in Arctic sea ice have the potential to affect migrations of a number of marine species whose timing is temporally matched to seasonal sea ice cover. This topic has not been investigated for Pacific Arctic beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas) that follow matrilineally maintained autumn migrations in the waters around Alaska and Russia. For the sympatric Eastern Chukchi Sea ('Chukchi') and Eastern Beaufort Sea ('Beaufort') beluga populations, we examined changes in autumn migration timing as related to delayed regional sea ice freeze-up since the 1990s, using two independent data sources (satellite telemetry data and passive acoustics) for both populations. We compared dates of migration between 'early' (1993-2002) and 'late' (2004-2012) tagging periods. During the late tagging period, Chukchi belugas had significantly delayed migrations (by 2 to >4 weeks, depending on location) from the Beaufort and Chukchi seas. Spatial analyses also revealed that departure from Beaufort Sea foraging regions by Chukchi whales was postponed in the late period. Chukchi beluga autumn migration timing occurred significantly later as regional sea ice freeze-up timing became later in the Beaufort, Chukchi, and Bering seas. In contrast, Beaufort belugas did not shift migration timing between periods, nor was migration timing related to freeze-up timing, other than for southward migration at the Bering Strait. Passive acoustic data from 2008 to 2014 provided independent and supplementary support for delayed migration from the Beaufort Sea (4 day yr -1 ) by Chukchi belugas. Here, we report the first phenological study examining beluga whale migrations within the context of their rapidly transforming Pacific Arctic ecosystem, suggesting flexible responses that may enable their persistence yet also complicate predictions of how

  19. Cross-Scale Modelling of Subduction from Minute to Million of Years Time Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobolev, S. V.; Muldashev, I. A.

    2015-12-01

    Subduction is an essentially multi-scale process with time-scales spanning from geological to earthquake scale with the seismic cycle in-between. Modelling of such process constitutes one of the largest challenges in geodynamic modelling today.Here we present a cross-scale thermomechanical model capable of simulating the entire subduction process from rupture (1 min) to geological time (millions of years) that employs elasticity, mineral-physics-constrained non-linear transient viscous rheology and rate-and-state friction plasticity. The model generates spontaneous earthquake sequences. The adaptive time-step algorithm recognizes moment of instability and drops the integration time step to its minimum value of 40 sec during the earthquake. The time step is then gradually increased to its maximal value of 5 yr, following decreasing displacement rates during the postseismic relaxation. Efficient implementation of numerical techniques allows long-term simulations with total time of millions of years. This technique allows to follow in details deformation process during the entire seismic cycle and multiple seismic cycles. We observe various deformation patterns during modelled seismic cycle that are consistent with surface GPS observations and demonstrate that, contrary to the conventional ideas, the postseismic deformation may be controlled by viscoelastic relaxation in the mantle wedge, starting within only a few hours after the great (M>9) earthquakes. Interestingly, in our model an average slip velocity at the fault closely follows hyperbolic decay law. In natural observations, such deformation is interpreted as an afterslip, while in our model it is caused by the viscoelastic relaxation of mantle wedge with viscosity strongly varying with time. We demonstrate that our results are consistent with the postseismic surface displacement after the Great Tohoku Earthquake for the day-to-year time range. We will also present results of the modeling of deformation of the

  20. Fine Scale Baleen Whale Behavior Observed Via Tagging Over Daily Time Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-30

    system to do a comparison between the two. While at Wildlife Computers, I also asked for and they kindly provided a small change in how their MK10...cetacean behavior at intermediate daily time scales. Recent efforts to assess the impacts of sound on marine mammals and to estimate foraging ...efficiency have called for the need to measure daily activity budgets to quantify how much of each day an individual devotes to foraging , resting

  1. Probabilistic eruption forecasting at short and long time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marzocchi, Warner; Bebbington, Mark S.

    2012-10-01

    Any effective volcanic risk mitigation strategy requires a scientific assessment of the future evolution of a volcanic system and its eruptive behavior. Some consider the onus should be on volcanologists to provide simple but emphatic deterministic forecasts. This traditional way of thinking, however, does not deal with the implications of inherent uncertainties, both aleatoric and epistemic, that are inevitably present in observations, monitoring data, and interpretation of any natural system. In contrast to deterministic predictions, probabilistic eruption forecasting attempts to quantify these inherent uncertainties utilizing all available information to the extent that it can be relied upon and is informative. As with many other natural hazards, probabilistic eruption forecasting is becoming established as the primary scientific basis for planning rational risk mitigation actions: at short-term (hours to weeks or months), it allows decision-makers to prioritize actions in a crisis; and at long-term (years to decades), it is the basic component for land use and emergency planning. Probabilistic eruption forecasting consists of estimating the probability of an eruption event and where it sits in a complex multidimensional time-space-magnitude framework. In this review, we discuss the key developments and features of models that have been used to address the problem.

  2. The decadal state of the terrestrial carbon cycle : Global retrievals of terrestrial carbon allocation, pools, and residence times

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bloom, A Anthony; Exbrayat, Jean-François; van der Velde, Ivar R; Feng, Liang; Williams, Mathew

    2016-01-01

    The terrestrial carbon cycle is currently the least constrained component of the global carbon budget. Large uncertainties stem from a poor understanding of plant carbon allocation, stocks, residence times, and carbon use efficiency. Imposing observational constraints on the terrestrial carbon cycle

  3. Superconducting fluctuations and characteristic time scales in amorphous WSi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiaofu; Lita, Adriana E.; Sidorova, Mariia; Verma, Varun B.; Wang, Qiang; Nam, Sae Woo; Semenov, Alexei; Schilling, Andreas

    2018-05-01

    We study magnitudes and temperature dependencies of the electron-electron and electron-phonon interaction times which play the dominant role in the formation and relaxation of photon-induced hotspots in two-dimensional amorphous WSi films. The time constants are obtained through magnetoconductance measurements in a perpendicular magnetic field in the superconducting fluctuation regime and through time-resolved photoresponse to optical pulses. The excess magnetoconductivity is interpreted in terms of the weak-localization effect and superconducting fluctuations. Aslamazov-Larkin and Maki-Thompson superconducting fluctuations alone fail to reproduce the magnetic field dependence in the relatively high magnetic field range when the temperature is rather close to Tc because the suppression of the electronic density of states due to the formation of short-lifetime Cooper pairs needs to be considered. The time scale τi of inelastic scattering is ascribed to a combination of electron-electron (τe -e) and electron-phonon (τe -p h) interaction times, and a characteristic electron-fluctuation time (τe -f l) , which makes it possible to extract their magnitudes and temperature dependencies from the measured τi. The ratio of phonon-electron (τp h -e) and electron-phonon interaction times is obtained via measurements of the optical photoresponse of WSi microbridges. Relatively large τe -p h/τp h -e and τe -p h/τe -e ratios ensure that in WSi the photon energy is more efficiently confined in the electron subsystem than in other materials commonly used in the technology of superconducting nanowire single-photon detectors (SNSPDs). We discuss the impact of interaction times on the hotspot dynamics and compare relevant metrics of SNSPDs from different materials.

  4. A Review of Time-Scale Modification of Music Signals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan Driedger

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Time-scale modification (TSM is the task of speeding up or slowing down an audio signal’s playback speed without changing its pitch. In digital music production, TSM has become an indispensable tool, which is nowadays integrated in a wide range of music production software. Music signals are diverse—they comprise harmonic, percussive, and transient components, among others. Because of this wide range of acoustic and musical characteristics, there is no single TSM method that can cope with all kinds of audio signals equally well. Our main objective is to foster a better understanding of the capabilities and limitations of TSM procedures. To this end, we review fundamental TSM methods, discuss typical challenges, and indicate potential solutions that combine different strategies. In particular, we discuss a fusion approach that involves recent techniques for harmonic-percussive separation along with time-domain and frequency-domain TSM procedures.

  5. Scale invariance in chaotic time series: Classical and quantum examples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landa, Emmanuel; Morales, Irving O.; Stránský, Pavel; Fossion, Rubén; Velázquez, Victor; López Vieyra, J. C.; Frank, Alejandro

    Important aspects of chaotic behavior appear in systems of low dimension, as illustrated by the Map Module 1. It is indeed a remarkable fact that all systems tha make a transition from order to disorder display common properties, irrespective of their exacta functional form. We discuss evidence for 1/f power spectra in the chaotic time series associated in classical and quantum examples, the one-dimensional map module 1 and the spectrum of 48Ca. A Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) method is applied to investigate the scaling properties of the energy fluctuations in the spectrum of 48Ca obtained with a large realistic shell model calculation (ANTOINE code) and with a random shell model (TBRE) calculation also in the time series obtained with the map mod 1. We compare the scale invariant properties of the 48Ca nuclear spectrum sith similar analyses applied to the RMT ensambles GOE and GDE. A comparison with the corresponding power spectra is made in both cases. The possible consequences of the results are discussed.

  6. Adaptation and learning: characteristic time scales of performance dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newell, Karl M; Mayer-Kress, Gottfried; Hong, S Lee; Liu, Yeou-Teh

    2009-12-01

    A multiple time scales landscape model is presented that reveals structures of performance dynamics that were not resolved in the traditional power law analysis of motor learning. It shows the co-existence of separate processes during and between practice sessions that evolve in two independent dimensions characterized by time scales that differ by about an order of magnitude. Performance along the slow persistent dimension of learning improves often as much and sometimes more during rest (memory consolidation and/or insight generation processes) than during a practice session itself. In contrast, the process characterized by the fast, transient dimension of adaptation reverses direction between practice sessions, thereby significantly degrading performance at the beginning of the next practice session (warm-up decrement). The theoretical model fits qualitatively and quantitatively the data from Snoddy's [Snoddy, G. S. (1926). Learning and stability. Journal of Applied Psychology, 10, 1-36] classic learning study of mirror tracing and other averaged and individual data sets, and provides a new account of the processes of change in adaptation and learning. 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. A thirty year, fine-scale, characterization of area burned in Canadian forests shows evidence of regionally increasing trends in the last decade.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coops, Nicholas C; Hermosilla, Txomin; Wulder, Michael A; White, Joanne C; Bolton, Douglas K

    2018-01-01

    Fire as a dominant disturbance has profound implications on the terrestrial carbon cycle. We present the first ever multi-decadal, spatially-explicit, 30 meter assessment of fire regimes across the forested ecoregions of Canada at an annual time-step. From 1985 to 2015, 51 Mha burned, impacting over 6.5% of forested ecosystems. Mean annual area burned was 1,651,818 ha and varied markedly (σ = 1,116,119), with 25% of the total area burned occurring in three years: 1989, 1995, and 2015. Boreal forest types contained 98% of the total area burned, with the conifer-dominated Boreal Shield containing one-third of all burned area. While results confirm no significant national trend in burned area for the period of 1985 to 2015, a significant national increasing trend (α = 0.05) of 11% per year was evident for the past decade (2006 to 2015). Regionally, a significant increasing trend in total burned area from 1985 to 2015 was observed in the Montane Cordillera (2.4% increase per year), while the Taiga Plains and Taiga Shield West displayed significant increasing trends from 2006 to 2015 (26.1% and 12.7% increases per year, respectively). The Atlantic Maritime, which had the lowest burned area of all ecozones (0.01% burned per year), was the only ecozone to display a significant negative trend (2.4% decrease per year) from 1985 to 2015. Given the century-long fire return intervals in many of these ecozones, and large annual variability in burned area, short-term trends need to be interpreted with caution. Additional interpretive cautions are related to year used for trend initiation and the nature and extents of spatial regionalizations used for summarizing findings. The results of our analysis provide a baseline for monitoring future national and regional trends in burned area and offer spatially and temporally detailed insights to inform science, policy, and management.

  8. Decadal-scale variability of diffuse CO2 emissions and seismicity revealed from long-term monitoring (1995–2013) at Mammoth Mountain, California, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werner, Cynthia A.; Bergfeld, Deborah; Farrar, Chris; Doukas, Michael P.; Kelly, Peter; Kern, Christoph

    2014-01-01

    Mammoth Mountain, California, is a dacitic volcano that has experienced several periods of unrest since 1989. The onset of diffuse soil CO2 emissions at numerous locations on the flanks of the volcano began in 1989–1990 following an 11-month period of heightened seismicity. CO2 emission rates were measured yearly from 1995 to 2013 at Horseshoe Lake (HSL), the largest tree kill area on Mammoth Mountain, and measured intermittently at four smaller degassing areas around Mammoth from 2006 to 2013. The long-term record at HSL shows decadal-scale variations in CO2 emissions with two peaks in 2000–2001 and 2011–2012, both of which follow peaks in seismicity by 2–3 years. Between 2000 and 2004 emissions gradually declined during a seismically quiet period, and from 2004 to 2009 were steady at ~ 100 metric tonnes per day (t d− 1). CO2emissions at the four smaller tree-kill areas also increased by factors of 2–3 between 2006 and 2011–2012, demonstrating a mountain-wide increase in degassing. Delays between the peaks in seismicity and degassing have been observed at other volcanic and hydrothermal areas worldwide, and are thought to result from an injection of deep CO2-rich fluid into shallow subsurface reservoirs causing a pressurization event with a delayed transport to the surface. Such processes are consistent with previous studies at Mammoth, and here we highlight (1) the mountain-wide response, (2) the characteristic delay of 2–3 years, and (3) the roughly decadal reoccurrence interval for such behavior. Our best estimate of total CO2 degassing from Mammoth Mountain was 416 t d− 1 in 2011 during the peak of emissions, over half of which was emitted from HSL. The cumulative release of CO2 between 1995 and 2013 from diffuse emissions is estimated to be ~ 2–3 Mt, and extrapolation back to 1989 gives ~ 4.8 Mt. This amount of CO2 release is similar to that produced by the mid-sized (VEI 3) 2009 eruption of Redoubt Volcano in Alaska (~ 2.3

  9. Neighborhood street scale elements, sedentary time and cardiometabolic risk factors in inactive ethnic minority women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Rebecca E; Mama, Scherezade K; Adamus-Leach, Heather J

    2012-01-01

    Cardiometabolic risk factors such as obesity, excess percent body fat, high blood pressure, elevated resting heart rate and sedentary behavior have increased in recent decades due to changes in the environment and lifestyle. Neighborhood micro-environmental, street scale elements may contribute to health above and beyond individual characteristics of residents. To investigate the relationship between neighborhood street scale elements and cardiometabolic risk factors among inactive ethnic minority women. Women (N = 410) completed measures of BMI, percent body fat, blood pressure, resting heart rate, sedentary behavior and demographics. Trained field assessors completed the Pedestrian Environment Data Scan in participants' neighborhoods. Data were collected from 2006-2008. Multiple regression models were conducted in 2011 to estimate the effect of environmental factors on cardiometabolic risk factors. Adjusted regression models found an inverse association between sidewalk buffers and blood pressure, between traffic control devices and resting heart rate, and a positive association between presence of pedestrian crossing aids and BMI (psattractiveness and safety for walking and cycling were related to more time spent in a motor vehicle (psrelationships among micro-environmental, street scale elements that may confer important cardiometabolic benefits and risks for residents. Living in the most attractive and safe neighborhoods for physical activity may be associated with longer times spent sitting in the car.

  10. Neighborhood street scale elements, sedentary time and cardiometabolic risk factors in inactive ethnic minority women.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rebecca E Lee

    Full Text Available Cardiometabolic risk factors such as obesity, excess percent body fat, high blood pressure, elevated resting heart rate and sedentary behavior have increased in recent decades due to changes in the environment and lifestyle. Neighborhood micro-environmental, street scale elements may contribute to health above and beyond individual characteristics of residents.To investigate the relationship between neighborhood street scale elements and cardiometabolic risk factors among inactive ethnic minority women.Women (N = 410 completed measures of BMI, percent body fat, blood pressure, resting heart rate, sedentary behavior and demographics. Trained field assessors completed the Pedestrian Environment Data Scan in participants' neighborhoods. Data were collected from 2006-2008. Multiple regression models were conducted in 2011 to estimate the effect of environmental factors on cardiometabolic risk factors.Adjusted regression models found an inverse association between sidewalk buffers and blood pressure, between traffic control devices and resting heart rate, and a positive association between presence of pedestrian crossing aids and BMI (ps<.05. Neighborhood attractiveness and safety for walking and cycling were related to more time spent in a motor vehicle (ps<.05.Findings suggest complex relationships among micro-environmental, street scale elements that may confer important cardiometabolic benefits and risks for residents. Living in the most attractive and safe neighborhoods for physical activity may be associated with longer times spent sitting in the car.

  11. Later rather than sooner: the impact of clinical management on timing and modes of death in the last decade.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dupont-Thibodeau, Amélie; Langevin, Rosalie; Janvier, Annie

    2014-11-01

    Technological and clinical advances have reduced neonatal deaths, and this study explored how the mode and timing of neonatal deaths has changed in a tertiary neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) over 10 years. We carried out a retrospective chart review on NICU deaths in 2000-2002 and 2007-2010, categorising deaths and compared the timing, cause and mode of death in the two cohorts. We analysed 204 neonatal deaths and found that the average age at death doubled from 9.71 days in 2000-2002 to 18.8 days (p = 0.014) in 2007-2010 and that the number of deaths in the first 48 h of life fell from 52% to 29% (p < 0.001). Mode of death and ethical decision-making was similar. In both cohorts, 26% of patients who died had a do not resuscitate order and 9% of the 151 patients without an order died while receiving cardiopulmonary resuscitation. Most neonates received medication to keep them comfortable and their use was similar in both cohorts. Changes in neonatal management have led to a reduction in early deaths and an increase in age at death. The impact of later deaths on families and healthcare providers deserves further research. ©2014 Foundation Acta Paediatrica. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Time spent by Brazilian students in different modes of transport going to school: changes over a decade (2001-2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelly Samara Silva

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available To examine changes in the time spent in each mode of transportation used for going to school by gender and age among adolescents from Santa Catarina State, Brazil. Two school-based surveys were performed in 2001 (N = 5,028 and 2011 (N = 6,529 in high school students (15-19 years old. The mode of transportation (on foot; by bicycle; by bus; car/motorcycle and the time spent for commuting to school were assessed. Active commuting increased for short trips in both genders (male: 25.1% to 36.7%; female: 18.8% to 29.2% and in all ages (15-16 years: 21% to 32.7%; 17-19 years: 21.9% to 32.4%, and declined for longer trips in males (30.5% to 21.9% and in 15-16 years old students (25.7% to 34.7%. Car/motorcycle use has doubled for short trips in males (38.1% to 65.9% and in 17-19 years old students (37.7% to 62.7%, while the use of buses remained stable in both genders. Our findings contribute to discussions on public policy focusing on the design of safe environments to promote active commuting to schools, particularly to decrease the use of motorized transport for short trips.

  13. The Time Scale of Recombination Rate Evolution in Great Apes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevison, Laurie S.; Woerner, August E.; Kidd, Jeffrey M.; Kelley, Joanna L.; Veeramah, Krishna R.; McManus, Kimberly F.; Bustamante, Carlos D.; Hammer, Michael F.; Wall, Jeffrey D.

    2016-01-01

    Abstract We present three linkage-disequilibrium (LD)-based recombination maps generated using whole-genome sequence data from 10 Nigerian chimpanzees, 13 bonobos, and 15 western gorillas, collected as part of the Great Ape Genome Project (Prado-Martinez J, et al. 2013. Great ape genetic diversity and population history. Nature 499:471–475). We also identified species-specific recombination hotspots in each group using a modified LDhot framework, which greatly improves statistical power to detect hotspots at varying strengths. We show that fewer hotspots are shared among chimpanzee subspecies than within human populations, further narrowing the time scale of complete hotspot turnover. Further, using species-specific PRDM9 sequences to predict potential binding sites (PBS), we show higher predicted PRDM9 binding in recombination hotspots as compared to matched cold spot regions in multiple great ape species, including at least one chimpanzee subspecies. We found that correlations between broad-scale recombination rates decline more rapidly than nucleotide divergence between species. We also compared the skew of recombination rates at centromeres and telomeres between species and show a skew from chromosome means extending as far as 10–15 Mb from chromosome ends. Further, we examined broad-scale recombination rate changes near a translocation in gorillas and found minimal differences as compared to other great ape species perhaps because the coordinates relative to the chromosome ends were unaffected. Finally, on the basis of multiple linear regression analysis, we found that various correlates of recombination rate persist throughout the African great apes including repeats, diversity, and divergence. Our study is the first to analyze within- and between-species genome-wide recombination rate variation in several close relatives. PMID:26671457

  14. Decadal strain along creeping faults in the Needles District, Paradox Basin Utah determined with InSAR Time Series Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kravitz, K.; Furuya, M.; Mueller, K. J.

    2013-12-01

    The Needles District, in Canyonlands National Park in Utah exposes an array of actively creeping normal faults that accommodate gravity-driven extension above a plastically deforming substrate of evaporite deposits. Previous interferogram stacking and InSAR analysis of faults in the Needles District using 35 ERS satellite scenes from 1992 to 2002 showed line-of-sight deformation rates of ~1-2 mm/yr along active normal faults, with a wide strain gradient along the eastern margin of the deforming region. More rapid subsidence of ~2-2.5 mm/yr was also evident south of the main fault array across a broad platform bounded by the Colorado River and a single fault scarp to the south. In this study, time series analysis was performed on SAR scenes from Envisat, PALSAR, and ERS satellites ranging from 1992 to 2010 to expand upon previous results. Both persistent scatterer and small baseline methods were implemented using StaMPS. Preliminary results from Envisat data indicate equally distributed slip rates along the length of faults within the Needles District and very little subsidence in the broad region further southwest identified in previous work. A phase ramp that appears to be present within the initial interferograms creates uncertainty in the current analysis and future work is aimed at removing this artifact. Our new results suggest, however that a clear deformation signal is present along a number of large grabens in the northern part of the region at higher rates of up to 3-4 mm/yr. Little to no creep is evident along the single fault zone that bounds the southern Needles, in spite of the presence of a large and apparently active fault. This includes a segment of this fault that is instrumented by a creepmeter that yields slip rates on the order of ~1mm/yr. Further work using time series analysis and a larger sampling of SAR scenes will be used in an effort to determine why differences exist between previous and current work and to test mechanics-based modeling

  15. Analysis of vegetation and land cover dynamics in north-western Morocco during the last decade using MODIS NDVI time series data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Höpfner

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Vegetation phenology as well as the current variability and dynamics of vegetation and land cover, including its climatic and human drivers, are examined in a region in north-western Morocco that is nearly 22 700 km2 big. A gapless time series of Normalized Differenced Vegetation Index (NDVI composite raster data from 29 September 2000 to 29 September 2009 is utilised. The data have a spatial resolution of 250 m and were acquired by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS sensor.

    The presented approach allows to compose and to analyse yearly land cover maps in a widely unknown region with scarce validated ground truth data by deriving phenological parameters. Results show that the high temporal resolution of 16 d is sufficient for (a determining local land cover better than global land cover classifications of Plant Functional Types (PFT and Global Land Cover 2000 (GLC2000 and (b for drawing conclusions on vegetation dynamics and its drivers. Areas of stably classified land cover types (i.e. areas that did not change their land cover type show climatically driven inter- and intra-annual variability with indicated influence of droughts. The presented approach to determine human-driven influence on vegetation dynamics caused by agriculture results in a more than ten times larger area compared with stably classified areas. Change detection based on yearly land cover maps shows a gain of high-productive vegetation (cropland of about 259.3 km2. Statistically significant inter-annual trends in vegetation dynamics during the last decade could however not be discovered. A sequence of correlations was respectively carried out to extract the most important periods of rainfall responsible for the production of green biomass and for the extent of land cover types. Results show that mean daily precipitation from 1 October to 15 December has high correlation results (max. r2=0.85 on an intra

  16. Neural Computations in a Dynamical System with Multiple Time Scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mi, Yuanyuan; Lin, Xiaohan; Wu, Si

    2016-01-01

    Neural systems display rich short-term dynamics at various levels, e.g., spike-frequency adaptation (SFA) at the single-neuron level, and short-term facilitation (STF) and depression (STD) at the synapse level. These dynamical features typically cover a broad range of time scales and exhibit large diversity in different brain regions. It remains unclear what is the computational benefit for the brain to have such variability in short-term dynamics. In this study, we propose that the brain can exploit such dynamical features to implement multiple seemingly contradictory computations in a single neural circuit. To demonstrate this idea, we use continuous attractor neural network (CANN) as a working model and include STF, SFA and STD with increasing time constants in its dynamics. Three computational tasks are considered, which are persistent activity, adaptation, and anticipative tracking. These tasks require conflicting neural mechanisms, and hence cannot be implemented by a single dynamical feature or any combination with similar time constants. However, with properly coordinated STF, SFA and STD, we show that the network is able to implement the three computational tasks concurrently. We hope this study will shed light on the understanding of how the brain orchestrates its rich dynamics at various levels to realize diverse cognitive functions.

  17. Time-scales of stellar rotational variability and starspot diagnostics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arkhypov, Oleksiy V.; Khodachenko, Maxim L.; Lammer, Helmut; Güdel, Manuel; Lüftinger, Teresa; Johnstone, Colin P.

    2018-01-01

    The difference in stability of starspot distribution on the global and hemispherical scales is studied in the rotational spot variability of 1998 main-sequence stars observed by Kepler mission. It is found that the largest patterns are much more stable than smaller ones for cool, slow rotators, whereas the difference is less pronounced for hotter stars and/or faster rotators. This distinction is interpreted in terms of two mechanisms: (1) the diffusive decay of long-living spots in activity complexes of stars with saturated magnetic dynamos, and (2) the spot emergence, which is modulated by gigantic turbulent flows in convection zones of stars with a weaker magnetism. This opens a way for investigation of stellar deep convection, which is yet inaccessible for asteroseismology. Moreover, a subdiffusion in stellar photospheres was revealed from observations for the first time. A diagnostic diagram was proposed that allows differentiation and selection of stars for more detailed studies of these phenomena.

  18. BOX-COX REGRESSION METHOD IN TIME SCALING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ATİLLA GÖKTAŞ

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Box-Cox regression method with λj, for j = 1, 2, ..., k, power transformation can be used when dependent variable and error term of the linear regression model do not satisfy the continuity and normality assumptions. The situation obtaining the smallest mean square error  when optimum power λj, transformation for j = 1, 2, ..., k, of Y has been discussed. Box-Cox regression method is especially appropriate to adjust existence skewness or heteroscedasticity of error terms for a nonlinear functional relationship between dependent and explanatory variables. In this study, the advantage and disadvantage use of Box-Cox regression method have been discussed in differentiation and differantial analysis of time scale concept.

  19. Prewhitening of hydroclimatic time series? Implications for inferred change and variability across time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razavi, Saman; Vogel, Richard

    2018-02-01

    Prewhitening, the process of eliminating or reducing short-term stochastic persistence to enable detection of deterministic change, has been extensively applied to time series analysis of a range of geophysical variables. Despite the controversy around its utility, methodologies for prewhitening time series continue to be a critical feature of a variety of analyses including: trend detection of hydroclimatic variables and reconstruction of climate and/or hydrology through proxy records such as tree rings. With a focus on the latter, this paper presents a generalized approach to exploring the impact of a wide range of stochastic structures of short- and long-term persistence on the variability of hydroclimatic time series. Through this approach, we examine the impact of prewhitening on the inferred variability of time series across time scales. We document how a focus on prewhitened, residual time series can be misleading, as it can drastically distort (or remove) the structure of variability across time scales. Through examples with actual data, we show how such loss of information in prewhitened time series of tree rings (so-called "residual chronologies") can lead to the underestimation of extreme conditions in climate and hydrology, particularly droughts, reconstructed for centuries preceding the historical period.

  20. The pace of aging: Intrinsic time scales in demography

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomasz Wrycza

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: The pace of aging is a concept that captures the time-related aspect of aging. It formalizesthe idea of a characteristic life span or intrinsic population time scale. In the rapidly developing field of comparative biodemography, measures that account for inter-speciesdifferences in life span are needed to compare how species age. Objective: We aim to provide a mathematical foundation for the concept of pace. We derive desiredmathematical properties of pace measures and suggest candidates which satisfy these properties. Subsequently, we introduce the concept of pace-standardization, which reveals differences in demographic quantities that are not due to pace. Examples and consequences are discussed. Conclusions: Mean life span (i.e., life expectancy from birth or from maturity is intuitively appealing,theoretically justified, and the most appropriate measure of pace. Pace-standardizationprovides a serviceable method for comparative aging studies to explore differences indemographic patterns of aging across species, and it may considerably alter conclusionsabout the strength of aging.

  1. Marine proxy evidence linking decadal North Pacific and Atlantic climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hetzinger, S. [University of Toronto Mississauga, CPS-Department, Mississauga, ON (Canada); Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences, IFM-GEOMAR, Kiel (Germany); Halfar, J. [University of Toronto Mississauga, CPS-Department, Mississauga, ON (Canada); Mecking, J.V.; Keenlyside, N.S. [Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences, IFM-GEOMAR, Kiel (Germany); University of Bergen, Geophysical Institute and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway); Kronz, A. [University of Goettingen, Geowissenschaftliches Zentrum, Goettingen (Germany); Steneck, R.S. [University of Maine, Darling Marine Center, Walpole, ME (United States); Adey, W.H. [Smithsonian Institution, Department of Botany, Washington, DC (United States); Lebednik, P.A. [ARCADIS U.S. Inc., Walnut Creek, CA (United States)

    2012-09-15

    Decadal- to multidecadal variability in the extra-tropical North Pacific is evident in 20th century instrumental records and has significant impacts on Northern Hemisphere climate and marine ecosystems. Several studies have discussed a potential linkage between North Pacific and Atlantic climate on various time scales. On decadal time scales no relationship could be confirmed, potentially due to sparse instrumental observations before 1950. Proxy data are limited and no multi-centennial high-resolution marine geochemical proxy records are available from the subarctic North Pacific. Here we present an annually-resolved record (1818-1967) of Mg/Ca variations from a North Pacific/Bering Sea coralline alga that extends our knowledge in this region beyond available data. It shows for the first time a statistically significant link between decadal fluctuations in sea-level pressure in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. The record is a lagged proxy for decadal-scale variations of the Aleutian Low. It is significantly related to regional sea surface temperature and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index in late boreal winter on these time scales. Our data show that on decadal time scales a weaker Aleutian Low precedes a negative NAO by several years. This atmospheric link can explain the coherence of decadal North Pacific and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, as suggested by earlier studies using climate models and limited instrumental data. (orig.)

  2. Time scale interaction in low-order climate models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veen, Lennaert van

    2002-01-01

    Over the last decades, the study of climate variability has attracted ample attention. The observation of structural climatic change has led to questions about the causes and the mechanisms involved. The task to understand interactions in the complex climate system is particularly di±cult because of

  3. Ozone time scale decomposition and trend assessment from surface observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boleti, Eirini; Hueglin, Christoph; Takahama, Satoshi

    2017-04-01

    Emissions of ozone precursors have been regulated in Europe since around 1990 with control measures primarily targeting to industries and traffic. In order to understand how these measures have affected air quality, it is now important to investigate concentrations of tropospheric ozone in different types of environments, based on their NOx burden, and in different geographic regions. In this study, we analyze high quality data sets for Switzerland (NABEL network) and whole Europe (AirBase) for the last 25 years to calculate long-term trends of ozone concentrations. A sophisticated time scale decomposition method, called the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) (Huang,1998;Wu,2009), is used for decomposition of the different time scales of the variation of ozone, namely the long-term trend, seasonal and short-term variability. This allows subtraction of the seasonal pattern of ozone from the observations and estimation of long-term changes of ozone concentrations with lower uncertainty ranges compared to typical methodologies used. We observe that, despite the implementation of regulations, for most of the measurement sites ozone daily mean values have been increasing until around mid-2000s. Afterwards, we observe a decline or a leveling off in the concentrations; certainly a late effect of limitations in ozone precursor emissions. On the other hand, the peak ozone concentrations have been decreasing for almost all regions. The evolution in the trend exhibits some differences between the different types of measurement. In addition, ozone is known to be strongly affected by meteorology. In the applied approach, some of the meteorological effects are already captured by the seasonal signal and already removed in the de-seasonalized ozone time series. For adjustment of the influence of meteorology on the higher frequency ozone variation, a statistical approach based on Generalized Additive Models (GAM) (Hastie,1990;Wood,2006), which corrects for meteorological

  4. Review of Tropical-Extratropical Teleconnections on Intraseasonal Time Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stan, Cristiana; Straus, David M.; Frederiksen, Jorgen S.; Lin, Hai; Maloney, Eric D.; Schumacher, Courtney

    2017-12-01

    The interactions and teleconnections between the tropical and midlatitude regions on intraseasonal time scales are an important modulator of tropical and extratropical circulation anomalies and their associated weather patterns. These interactions arise due to the impact of the tropics on the extratropics, the impact of the midlatitudes on the tropics, and two-way interactions between the regions. Observational evidence, as well as theoretical studies with models of complexity ranging from the linear barotropic framework to intricate Earth system models, suggest the involvement of a myriad of processes and mechanisms in generating and maintaining these interconnections. At this stage, our understanding of these teleconnections is primarily a collection of concepts; a comprehensive theoretical framework has yet to be established. These intraseasonal teleconnections are increasingly recognized as an untapped source of potential subseasonal predictability. However, the complexity and diversity of mechanisms associated with these teleconnections, along with the lack of a conceptual framework to relate them, prevent this potential predictability from being translated into realized forecast skill. This review synthesizes our progress in understanding the observed characteristics of intraseasonal tropical-extratropical interactions and their associated mechanisms, identifies the significant gaps in this understanding, and recommends new research endeavors to address the remaining challenges.

  5. Future Arctic climate changes: Adaptation and mitigation time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overland, James E.; Wang, Muyin; Walsh, John E.; Stroeve, Julienne C.

    2014-02-01

    The climate in the Arctic is changing faster than in midlatitudes. This is shown by increased temperatures, loss of summer sea ice, earlier snow melt, impacts on ecosystems, and increased economic access. Arctic sea ice volume has decreased by 75% since the 1980s. Long-lasting global anthropogenic forcing from carbon dioxide has increased over the previous decades and is anticipated to increase over the next decades. Temperature increases in response to greenhouse gases are amplified in the Arctic through feedback processes associated with shifts in albedo, ocean and land heat storage, and near-surface longwave radiation fluxes. Thus, for the next few decades out to 2040, continuing environmental changes in the Arctic are very likely, and the appropriate response is to plan for adaptation to these changes. For example, it is very likely that the Arctic Ocean will become seasonally nearly sea ice free before 2050 and possibly within a decade or two, which in turn will further increase Arctic temperatures, economic access, and ecological shifts. Mitigation becomes an important option to reduce potential Arctic impacts in the second half of the 21st century. Using the most recent set of climate model projections (CMIP5), multimodel mean temperature projections show an Arctic-wide end of century increase of +13°C in late fall and +5°C in late spring for a business-as-usual emission scenario (RCP8.5) in contrast to +7°C in late fall and +3°C in late spring if civilization follows a mitigation scenario (RCP4.5). Such temperature increases demonstrate the heightened sensitivity of the Arctic to greenhouse gas forcing.

  6. Towards a More Biologically-meaningful Climate Characterization: Variability in Space and Time at Multiple Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christianson, D. S.; Kaufman, C. G.; Kueppers, L. M.; Harte, J.

    2013-12-01

    Sampling limitations and current modeling capacity justify the common use of mean temperature values in summaries of historical climate and future projections. However, a monthly mean temperature representing a 1-km2 area on the landscape is often unable to capture the climate complexity driving organismal and ecological processes. Estimates of variability in addition to mean values are more biologically meaningful and have been shown to improve projections of range shifts for certain species. Historical analyses of variance and extreme events at coarse spatial scales, as well as coarse-scale projections, show increasing temporal variability in temperature with warmer means. Few studies have considered how spatial variance changes with warming, and analysis for both temporal and spatial variability across scales is lacking. It is unclear how the spatial variability of fine-scale conditions relevant to plant and animal individuals may change given warmer coarse-scale mean values. A change in spatial variability will affect the availability of suitable habitat on the landscape and thus, will influence future species ranges. By characterizing variability across both temporal and spatial scales, we can account for potential bias in species range projections that use coarse climate data and enable improvements to current models. In this study, we use temperature data at multiple spatial and temporal scales to characterize spatial and temporal variability under a warmer climate, i.e., increased mean temperatures. Observational data from the Sierra Nevada (California, USA), experimental climate manipulation data from the eastern and western slopes of the Rocky Mountains (Colorado, USA), projected CMIP5 data for California (USA) and observed PRISM data (USA) allow us to compare characteristics of a mean-variance relationship across spatial scales ranging from sub-meter2 to 10,000 km2 and across temporal scales ranging from hours to decades. Preliminary spatial analysis at

  7. Collaborative Research. Separating Forced and Unforced Decadal Predictability in Models and Observations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DelSole, Timothy [George Mason Univ., Fairfax, VA (United States)

    2015-08-31

    The purpose of the proposed research was to identify unforced predictable components on decadal time scales, distinguish these components from forced predictable components, and to assess the reliability of model predictions of these components. The question of whether anthropogenic forcing changes decadal predictability, or gives rise to new forms of decadal predictability, also will be

  8. Time-scales for runoff and erosion estimates, with implications for spatial scaling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirkby, M. J.; Irvine, B. J.; Dalen, E. N.

    2009-04-01

    Using rainfall data at high temporal resolution, runoff may be estimated for every bucket-tip, or for aggregated hourly or daily periods. Although there is no doubt that finer resolution gives substantially better estimates, many models make use of coarser time steps because these data are more widely available. This paper makes comparisons between runoff estimates based on infiltration measurements used with high resolution rainfall data for SE Spain and theoretical work on improving the time resolution in the PESERA model from daily to hourly values, for areas where these are available. For a small plot at fine temporal scale, runoff responds to bursts of intense rainfall which, for the Guadalentin catchment, typically lasts for about 30 minutes. However, when a larger area is considered, the large and unstructured variability in infiltration capacity produces an aggregate runoff that differs substantially from estimates using average infiltration parameters (in the Green-Ampt equation). When these estimates are compared with estimates based on rainfall for aggregated hourly or daily periods, using a simpler infiltration model, it can be seen that there a substantial scatter, as expected, but that suitable parameterisation can provide reasonable average estimates. Similar conclusions may be drawn for erosion estimates, assuming that sediment transport is proportional to a power of runoff discharge.. The spatial implications of these estimates can be made explicit with fine time resolution, showing that, with observed low overland flow velocities, only a small fraction of the hillside is generally able to deliver runoff to the nearest channel before rainfall intensity drops and runoff re-infiltrates. For coarser time resolutions, this has to be parameterised as a delivery ratio, and we show that how this ratio can be rationally estimated from rainfall characteristics.

  9. Nonequilibrium Physics at Short Time Scales: Formation of Correlations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peliti, L

    2005-01-01

    It is a happy situation when similar concepts and theoretical techniques can be applied to widely different physical systems because of a deep similarity in the situations being studied. The book illustrates this well; it focuses on the description of correlations in quantum systems out of equilibrium at very short time scales, prompted by experiments with short laser pulses in semiconductors, and in complex reactions in heavy nuclei. In both cases the experiments are characterized by nonlinear dynamics and by strong correlations out of equilibrium. In some systems there are also important finite-size effects. The book comprises several independent contributions of moderate length, and I sometimes felt that a more intensive effort in cross-coordination of the different contributions could have been of help. It is divided almost equally between theory and experiment. In the theoretical part, there is a thorough discussion both of the kinematic aspects (description of correlations) and the dynamical ones (evaluation of correlations). The experimental part is naturally divided according to the nature of the system: the interaction of pulsed lasers with matter on the one hand, and the correlations in finite-size systems (nanoparticles and nuclei) on the other. There is also a discussion on the dynamics of superconductors, a subject currently of great interest. Although an effort has been made to keep each contribution self-contained, I must admit that reading level is uneven. However, there are a number of thorough and stimulating contributions that make this book a useful introduction to the topic at the level of graduate students or researchers acquainted with quantum statistical mechanics. (book review)

  10. EON: software for long time simulations of atomic scale systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chill, Samuel T.; Welborn, Matthew; Terrell, Rye; Zhang, Liang; Berthet, Jean-Claude; Pedersen, Andreas; Jónsson, Hannes; Henkelman, Graeme

    2014-07-01

    The EON software is designed for simulations of the state-to-state evolution of atomic scale systems over timescales greatly exceeding that of direct classical dynamics. States are defined as collections of atomic configurations from which a minimization of the potential energy gives the same inherent structure. The time evolution is assumed to be governed by rare events, where transitions between states are uncorrelated and infrequent compared with the timescale of atomic vibrations. Several methods for calculating the state-to-state evolution have been implemented in EON, including parallel replica dynamics, hyperdynamics and adaptive kinetic Monte Carlo. Global optimization methods, including simulated annealing, basin hopping and minima hopping are also implemented. The software has a client/server architecture where the computationally intensive evaluations of the interatomic interactions are calculated on the client-side and the state-to-state evolution is managed by the server. The client supports optimization for different computer architectures to maximize computational efficiency. The server is written in Python so that developers have access to the high-level functionality without delving into the computationally intensive components. Communication between the server and clients is abstracted so that calculations can be deployed on a single machine, clusters using a queuing system, large parallel computers using a message passing interface, or within a distributed computing environment. A generic interface to the evaluation of the interatomic interactions is defined so that empirical potentials, such as in LAMMPS, and density functional theory as implemented in VASP and GPAW can be used interchangeably. Examples are given to demonstrate the range of systems that can be modeled, including surface diffusion and island ripening of adsorbed atoms on metal surfaces, molecular diffusion on the surface of ice and global structural optimization of nanoparticles.

  11. Detection of Variations in Air Temperature at Different Time Scales During the Period 1889-1998 at Firenze, Italy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kumar, P.V. [Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture, Santoshnagar, Saidabad, Hyderabad, 500059, Andhra Pradesh (India); Bindi, M. [DISAT-UNIFI, P.le delle Cascine 18, 50144, Firenze (Italy); Crisci, A. [LaMMA-Laboratorio per la Meteorologia, Climatologia e la Modellistica Ambientale, Campi Bisenzio (Italy); Maracchi, G. [IATA-CNR, P.le delle Cascine 18, 50144 Firenze (Italy)

    2005-09-01

    In an attempt to contribute to studies on global climatic change, 110 years of temperature data for Firenze, Italy, were analysed. Means and trends of annual and monthly temperatures (minimum, maximum and average) were analysed at three different time scales: short (20 years), medium (36-38 years) and long (55 years). Comparative changes in extreme events viz. frosts in the first and second parts of the 20th century were also analysed. At short time scales, climatic change was found in minimum and average temperatures but not in maximum temperatures. At all three time scales, the annual means of minimum, maximum and average temperatures were significantly warmer in the last part than in the early part of the 20th century. The monthly mean temperatures showed significant warming of winter months. Over the last four decades, minimum, maximum and average temperatures had warmed by 0.4, 0.43 and 0.4C per decade, respectively, and if this trend continues, they will be warmer by 4C by the end of the 21st century. The significant decline in days with subzero temperatures and frosts in the last half of the 20th century, further substantiated the occurrence of climate change at this site.

  12. A Group Simulation of the Development of the Geologic Time Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennington, J. Bret

    2000-01-01

    Explains how to demonstrate to students that the relative dating of rock layers is redundant. Uses two column diagrams to simulate stratigraphic sequences from two different geological time scales and asks students to complete the time scale. (YDS)

  13. Decadal-Scale Reduction in Forest Net Ecosystem Production Following Insect Defoliation Contrasts with Short-Term Impacts of Prescribed Fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenneth L. Clark; Heidi J. Renninger; Nicholas Skowronski; Michael Gallagher; Karina V.R.  Schäfer

    2018-01-01

    Understanding processes underlying forest carbon dynamics is essential for accurately predicting the outcomes of non-stand-replacing disturbance in intermediate-age forests. We quantified net ecosystem production (NEP), aboveground net primary production (ANPP), and the dynamics of major carbon (C) pools before and during the decade following invasive insect...

  14. Indo-Pacific sea level variability at multidecadal time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merrifield, M. A.; Thompson, P. R.

    2016-12-01

    Long tide gauge and atmospheric pressure measurements are used to infer multidecadal fluctuations in trade wind forcing and the associated Indo-Pacific sea level response along coastal and equatorial waveguides. The trade wind variations are marked by a weakening beginning with the late 1970s climate shift and a subsequent return to mean conditions since the early 1990s. These fluctuations covary with multidecadal wind changes at mid-latitudes, as measured by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation or the North Pacific indices; however, the mid-latitude multidecadal variations prior to 1970 or noticeably absent in the inferred trade wind record. The different behavior of tropical and mid-latitude winds support the notion that multidecadal climate variations in the Pacific result from a combination of processes and not a single coherent mode spanning the basin. In particular, the two-decade long satellite altimeter record represents a period of apparent connection between the two regions that was not exhibited earlier in the century.

  15. Decadal-scale export of nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment from the Susquehanna River basin, USA: Analysis and synthesis of temporal and spatial patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qian; Ball, William P; Moyer, Douglas L

    2016-09-01

    The export of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and suspended sediment (SS) is a long-standing management concern for the Chesapeake Bay watershed, USA. Here we present a comprehensive evaluation of nutrient and sediment loads over the last three decades at multiple locations in the Susquehanna River basin (SRB), Chesapeake's largest tributary watershed. Sediment and nutrient riverine loadings, including both dissolved and particulate fractions, have generally declined at all sites upstream of Conowingo Dam (non-tidal SRB outlet). Period-of-record declines in riverine yield are generally smaller than those in source input, suggesting the possibility of legacy contributions. Consistent with other watershed studies, these results reinforce the importance of considering lag time between the implementation of management actions and achievement of river quality improvement. Whereas flow-normalized loadings for particulate species have increased recently below Conowingo Reservoir, those for upstream sites have declined, thus substantiating conclusions from prior studies about decreased reservoir trapping efficiency. In regard to streamflow effects, statistically significant log-linear relationships between annual streamflow and annual constituent load suggest the dominance of hydrological control on the inter-annual variability of constituent export. Concentration-discharge relationships revealed general chemostasis and mobilization effects for dissolved and particulate species, respectively, both suggesting transport-limitation conditions. In addition to affecting annual export rates, streamflow has also modulated the relative importance of dissolved and particulate fractions, as reflected by its negative correlations with dissolved P/total P, dissolved N/total N, particulate P/SS, and total N/total P ratios. For land-use effects, period-of-record median annual yields of N, P, and SS all correlate positively with the area fraction of non-forested land but negatively with

  16. Decadal-scale export of nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment from the Susquehanna River basin, USA: Analysis and synthesis of temporal and spatial patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qian; Ball, William P.; Moyer, Douglas

    2016-01-01

    The export of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and suspended sediment (SS) is a long-standing management concern for the Chesapeake Bay watershed, USA. Here we present a comprehensive evaluation of nutrient and sediment loads over the last three decades at multiple locations in the Susquehanna River basin (SRB), Chesapeake's largest tributary watershed. Sediment and nutrient riverine loadings, including both dissolved and particulate fractions, have generally declined at all sites upstream of Conowingo Dam (non-tidal SRB outlet). Period-of-record declines in riverine yield are generally smaller than those in source input, suggesting the possibility of legacy contributions. Consistent with other watershed studies, these results reinforce the importance of considering lag time between the implementation of management actions and achievement of river quality improvement. Whereas flow-normalized loadings for particulate species have increased recently below Conowingo Reservoir, those for upstream sites have declined, thus substantiating conclusions from prior studies about decreased reservoir trapping efficiency. In regard to streamflow effects, statistically significant log-linear relationships between annual streamflow and annual constituent load suggest the dominance of hydrological control on the inter-annual variability of constituent export. Concentration-discharge relationships revealed general chemostasis and mobilization effects for dissolved and particulate species, respectively, both suggesting transport-limitation conditions. In addition to affecting annual export rates, streamflow has also modulated the relative importance of dissolved and particulate fractions, as reflected by its negative correlations with dissolved P/total P, dissolved N/total N, particulate P/SS, and total N/total P ratios. For land-use effects, period-of-record median annual yields of N, P, and SS all correlate positively with the area fraction of non-forested land but negatively with

  17. A novel way to detect correlations on multi-time scales, with temporal evolution and for multi-variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Naiming; Xoplaki, Elena; Zhu, Congwen; Luterbacher, Juerg

    2016-06-01

    In this paper, two new methods, Temporal evolution of Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis (TDCCA) and Temporal evolution of Detrended Partial-Cross-Correlation Analysis (TDPCCA), are proposed by generalizing DCCA and DPCCA. Applying TDCCA/TDPCCA, it is possible to study correlations on multi-time scales and over different periods. To illustrate their properties, we used two climatological examples: i) Global Sea Level (GSL) versus North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO); and ii) Summer Rainfall over Yangtze River (SRYR) versus previous winter Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). We find significant correlations between GSL and NAO on time scales of 60 to 140 years, but the correlations are non-significant between 1865-1875. As for SRYR and PDO, significant correlations are found on time scales of 30 to 35 years, but the correlations are more pronounced during the recent 30 years. By combining TDCCA/TDPCCA and DCCA/DPCCA, we proposed a new correlation-detection system, which compared to traditional methods, can objectively show how two time series are related (on which time scale, during which time period). These are important not only for diagnosis of complex system, but also for better designs of prediction models. Therefore, the new methods offer new opportunities for applications in natural sciences, such as ecology, economy, sociology and other research fields.

  18. Attractors of relaxation discrete-time systems with chaotic dynamics on a fast time scale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maslennikov, Oleg V.; Nekorkin, Vladimir I.

    2016-01-01

    In this work, a new type of relaxation systems is considered. Their prominent feature is that they comprise two distinct epochs, one is slow regular motion and another is fast chaotic motion. Unlike traditionally studied slow-fast systems that have smooth manifolds of slow motions in the phase space and fast trajectories between them, in this new type one observes, apart the same geometric objects, areas of transient chaos. Alternating periods of slow regular motions and fast chaotic ones as well as transitions between them result in a specific chaotic attractor with chaos on a fast time scale. We formulate basic properties of such attractors in the framework of discrete-time systems and consider several examples. Finally, we provide an important application of such systems, the neuronal electrical activity in the form of chaotic spike-burst oscillations.

  19. Two decades of satellite observations of AOD over mainland China using ATSR-2, AATSR and MODIS/Terra: data set evaluation and large-scale patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Leeuw, Gerrit; Sogacheva, Larisa; Rodriguez, Edith; Kourtidis, Konstantinos; Georgoulias, Aristeidis K.; Alexandri, Georgia; Amiridis, Vassilis; Proestakis, Emmanouil; Marinou, Eleni; Xue, Yong; van der A, Ronald

    2018-02-01

    has limitations over bright surfaces which the MODIS DB was designed for. To allow for comparison of MODIS C6 results with previous analyses where MODIS Collection 5.1 (C5.1) data were used, also the difference between the C6 and C5.1 merged DTDB data sets from MODIS/Terra over China is briefly discussed. The AOD data sets show strong seasonal differences and the seasonal features vary with latitude and longitude across China. Two-decadal AOD time series, averaged over all of mainland China, are presented and briefly discussed. Using the 17 years of ATSR data as the basis and MODIS/Terra to follow the temporal evolution in recent years when the environmental satellite Envisat was lost requires a comparison of the data sets for the overlapping period to show their complementarity. ATSR precedes the MODIS time series between 1995 and 2000 and shows a distinct increase in the AOD over this period. The two data series show similar variations during the overlapping period between 2000 and 2011, with minima and maxima in the same years. MODIS extends this time series beyond the end of the Envisat period in 2012, showing decreasing AOD.

  20. Ozone time scale decomposition and trend assessment from surface observations in National Parks of the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, H.; McGlynn, D. F.; Wu, Z.; Sive, B. C.

    2017-12-01

    A time scale decomposition technique, the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD), has been employed to decompose the time scales in long-term ozone measurement data at 24 US National Park Service sites. Time scales of interest include the annual cycle, variability by large scale climate oscillations, and the long-term trend. The implementation of policy regulations was found to have had a greater effect on sites nearest to urban regions. Ozone daily mean values increased until around the late 1990s followed by decreasing trends during the ensuing decades for sites in the East, southern California, and northwestern Washington. Sites in the Midwest did not experience a reversal of trends from positive to negative until the mid- to late 2000s. The magnitude of the annual amplitude decreased for nine sites and increased for three sites. Stronger decreases in the annual amplitude occurred in the East, with more sites in the East experiencing decreases in annual amplitude than in the West. The date of annual ozone peaks and minimums has changed for 12 sites in total, but those with a shift in peak date did not necessarily have a shift in the trough date. There appeared to be a link between peak dates occurring earlier and a decrease in the annual amplitude. This is likely related to a decrease in ozone titration due to NOx emission reductions. Furthermore, it was found that the shift in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) regime from positive to negative in 1998-1999 resulting in an increase in occurrences of La Niña-like conditions had the effect of directing more polluted air masses from East Asia to higher latitudes over North America. This change in PDO regime was likely one main factor causing the increase in ozone concentrations on all time scales at an Alaskan site DENA-HQ.

  1. Understanding the Patterns and Drivers of Air Pollution on Multiple Time Scales: The Case of Northern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yupeng; Wu, Jianguo; Yu, Deyong; Hao, Ruifang

    2018-06-01

    China's rapid economic growth during the past three decades has resulted in a number of environmental problems, including the deterioration of air quality. It is necessary to better understand how the spatial pattern of air pollutants varies with time scales and what drive these changes. To address these questions, this study focused on one of the most heavily air-polluted areas in North China. We first quantified the spatial pattern of air pollution, and then systematically examined the relationships of air pollution to several socioeconomic and climatic factors using the constraint line method, correlation analysis, and stepwise regression on decadal, annual, and seasonal scales. Our results indicate that PM2.5 was the dominant air pollutant in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, while PM2.5 and PM10 were both important pollutants in the Agro-pastoral Transitional Zone (APTZ) region. Our statistical analyses suggest that energy consumption and gross domestic product (GDP) in the industry were the most important factors for air pollution on the decadal scale, but the impacts of climatic factors could also be significant. On the annual and seasonal scales, high wind speed, low relative humidity, and long sunshine duration constrained PM2.5 accumulation; low wind speed and high relative humidity constrained PM10 accumulation; and short sunshine duration and high wind speed constrained O3 accumulation. Our study showed that analyses on multiple temporal scales are not only necessary to determine key drivers of air pollution, but also insightful for understanding the spatial patterns of air pollution, which was important for urban planning and air pollution control.

  2. Entangled time in flocking: Multi-time-scale interaction reveals emergence of inherent noise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niizato, Takayuki; Murakami, Hisashi

    2018-01-01

    Collective behaviors that seem highly ordered and result in collective alignment, such as schooling by fish and flocking by birds, arise from seamless shuffling (such as super-diffusion) and bustling inside groups (such as Lévy walks). However, such noisy behavior inside groups appears to preclude the collective behavior: intuitively, we expect that noisy behavior would lead to the group being destabilized and broken into small sub groups, and high alignment seems to preclude shuffling of neighbors. Although statistical modeling approaches with extrinsic noise, such as the maximum entropy approach, have provided some reasonable descriptions, they ignore the cognitive perspective of the individuals. In this paper, we try to explain how the group tendency, that is, high alignment, and highly noisy individual behavior can coexist in a single framework. The key aspect of our approach is multi-time-scale interaction emerging from the existence of an interaction radius that reflects short-term and long-term predictions. This multi-time-scale interaction is a natural extension of the attraction and alignment concept in many flocking models. When we apply this method in a two-dimensional model, various flocking behaviors, such as swarming, milling, and schooling, emerge. The approach also explains the appearance of super-diffusion, the Lévy walk in groups, and local equilibria. At the end of this paper, we discuss future developments, including extending our model to three dimensions.

  3. Changes in channel morphology over human time scales [Chapter 32

    Science.gov (United States)

    John M. Buffington

    2012-01-01

    Rivers are exposed to changing environmental conditions over multiple spatial and temporal scales, with the imposed environmental conditions and response potential of the river modulated to varying degrees by human activity and our exploitation of natural resources. Watershed features that control river morphology include topography (valley slope and channel...

  4. Length and time scales of atmospheric moisture recycling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van der Ent, R.J.; Savenije, H.H.G.

    2011-01-01

    It is difficult to quantify the degree to which terrestrial evaporation supports the occurrence of precipitation within a certain study region (i.e. regional moisture recycling) due to the scale- and shape-dependence of regional moisture recycling ratios. In this paper we present a novel approach to

  5. Full-scale and time-scale heating experiments at Stripa: preliminary results. Technical project report No. 11

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cook, N.G.W.; Hood, M.

    1978-12-01

    Two full-scale heating experiments and a time-scale heating experiment have recently been started in granite 340 meters below surface. The purpose of the full-scale heating experiments is to assess the near-field effects of thermal loading for the design of an underground repository of nuclear wastes. That of the time-scale heating experiments is to obtain field data of the interaction between heaters and its effect on the rock mass during a period of about two years, which corresponds to about twenty years of full-scale operation. Geological features of the rock around each experiment have been mapped carefully, and temperatures, stresses and displacements induced in the rock by heating have been calculated in advance of the experiments. Some 800 different measurements are recorded at frequent intervals by a computer system situated underground. These data can be compared at any time with predictions made earlier on video display units underground

  6. Describing temporal variability of the mean Estonian precipitation series in climate time scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Post, P.; Kärner, O.

    2009-04-01

    Applicability of the random walk type models to represent the temporal variability of various atmospheric temperature series has been successfully demonstrated recently (e.g. Kärner, 2002). Main problem in the temperature modeling is connected to the scale break in the generally self similar air temperature anomaly series (Kärner, 2005). The break separates short-range strong non-stationarity from nearly stationary longer range variability region. This is an indication of the fact that several geophysical time series show a short-range non-stationary behaviour and a stationary behaviour in longer range (Davis et al., 1996). In order to model series like that the choice of time step appears to be crucial. To characterize the long-range variability we can neglect the short-range non-stationary fluctuations, provided that we are able to model properly the long-range tendencies. The structure function (Monin and Yaglom, 1975) was used to determine an approximate segregation line between the short and the long scale in terms of modeling. The longer scale can be called climate one, because such models are applicable in scales over some decades. In order to get rid of the short-range fluctuations in daily series the variability can be examined using sufficiently long time step. In the present paper, we show that the same philosophy is useful to find a model to represent a climate-scale temporal variability of the Estonian daily mean precipitation amount series over 45 years (1961-2005). Temporal variability of the obtained daily time series is examined by means of an autoregressive and integrated moving average (ARIMA) family model of the type (0,1,1). This model is applicable for daily precipitation simulating if to select an appropriate time step that enables us to neglet the short-range non-stationary fluctuations. A considerably longer time step than one day (30 days) is used in the current paper to model the precipitation time series variability. Each ARIMA (0

  7. Global terrestrial biogeochemistry: Perturbations, interactions, and time scales

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Braswell, B.H. Jr.

    1996-12-01

    Global biogeochemical processes are being perturbed by human activity, principally that which is associated with industrial activity and expansion of urban and agricultural complexes. Perturbations have manifested themselves at least since the beginning of the 19th Century, and include emissions of CO{sub 2} and other pollutants from fossil fuel combustion, agricultural emissions of reactive nitrogen, and direct disruption of ecosystem function through land conversion. These perturbations yield local impacts, but there are also global consequences that are the sum of local-scale influences. Several approaches to understanding the global-scale implications of chemical perturbations to the Earth system are discussed. The lifetime of anthropogenic CO{sub 2} in the atmosphere is an important concept for understanding the current and future commitment to an altered atmospheric heat budget. The importance of the terrestrial biogeochemistry relative to the lifetime of excess CO{sub 2} is demonstrated using dynamic, aggregated models of the global carbon cycle.

  8. A continuous time random walk model for Darcy-scale anomalous transport in heterogeneous porous media.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comolli, Alessandro; Hakoun, Vivien; Dentz, Marco

    2017-04-01

    Achieving the understanding of the process of solute transport in heterogeneous porous media is of crucial importance for several environmental and social purposes, ranging from aquifers contamination and remediation, to risk assessment in nuclear waste repositories. The complexity of this aim is mainly ascribable to the heterogeneity of natural media, which can be observed at all the scales of interest, from pore scale to catchment scale. In fact, the intrinsic heterogeneity of porous media is responsible for the arising of the well-known non-Fickian footprints of transport, including heavy-tailed breakthrough curves, non-Gaussian spatial density profiles and the non-linear growth of the mean squared displacement. Several studies investigated the processes through which heterogeneity impacts the transport properties, which include local modifications to the advective-dispersive motion of solutes, mass exchanges between some mobile and immobile phases (e.g. sorption/desorption reactions or diffusion into solid matrix) and spatial correlation of the flow field. In the last decades, the continuous time random walk (CTRW) model has often been used to describe solute transport in heterogenous conditions and to quantify the impact of point heterogeneity, spatial correlation and mass transfer on the average transport properties [1]. Open issues regarding this approach are the possibility to relate measurable properties of the medium to the parameters of the model, as well as its capability to provide predictive information. In a recent work [2] the authors have shed new light on understanding the relationship between Lagrangian and Eulerian dynamics as well as on their evolution from arbitrary initial conditions. On the basis of these results, we derive a CTRW model for the description of Darcy-scale transport in d-dimensional media characterized by spatially random permeability fields. The CTRW approach models particle velocities as a spatial Markov process, which is

  9. Dynamics at Intermediate Time Scales and Management of Ecological Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-05-10

    thinking about the importance of transients is to recognize the importance of serial autocorrelation in time of forcing terms over realistic ecological time...rich areas helps produce divergent home range responses bet - ween individuals from difference age classes. This model has broad applications for

  10. Grasping Deep Time with Scaled Space in Personal Environs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, B. H.

    2014-01-01

    of modern man, the age of dinosaurs ended at 650 m and the Big Bang is 137 km away. This choice obviously makes mental calculations easy, and all of time fits inside a geographical area of moderate size and so helps the citizen gain ownership to this learning tool and hence to time. The idea was tested...

  11. Local to Global Scale Time Series Analysis of US Dryland Degradation Using Landsat, AVHRR, and MODIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Washington-Allen, R. A.; Ramsey, R. D.; West, N. E.; Kulawardhana, W.; Reeves, M. C.; Mitchell, J. E.; Van Niel, T. G.

    2011-12-01

    Drylands cover 41% of the terrestrial land surface and annually generate $1 trillion in ecosystem goods and services for 38% of the global population, yet estimates of the global extent of Dryland degradation is uncertain with a range of 10 - 80%. It is currently understood that Drylands exhibit topological complexity including self-organization of parameters of different levels-of-organization, e.g., ecosystem and landscape parameters such as soil and vegetation pattern and structure, that gradually or discontinuously shift to multiple basins of attraction in response to herbivory, fire, and climatic drivers at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Our research has shown that at large geographic scales, contemporaneous time series of 10 to 20 years for response and driving variables across two or more spatial scales is required to replicate and differentiate between the impact of climate and land use activities such as commercial grazing. For example, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a major driver of Dryland net primary productivity (NPP), biodiversity, and ecological resilience with a 10-year return interval, thus 20 years of data are required to replicate its impact. Degradation is defined here as a change in physiognomic composition contrary to management goals, a persistent reduction in vegetation response, e.g., NPP, accelerated soil erosion, a decline in soil quality, and changes in landscape configuration and structure that lead to a loss of ecosystem function. Freely available Landsat, Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradimeter (MODIS) archives of satellite imagery exist that provide local to global spatial coverage and time series between 1972 to the present from which proxies of land degradation can be derived. This paper presents time series assessments between 1972 and 2011 of US Dryland degradation including early detection of dynamic regime shifts in the Mojave and landscape pattern and

  12. Interplay between multiple length and time scales in complex ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Administrator

    Processes in complex chemical systems, such as macromolecules, electrolytes, interfaces, ... by processes operating on a multiplicity of length .... real time. The design and interpretation of femto- second experiments has required considerable ...

  13. Physical Forcing-Driven Productivity and Sediment Flux to the Deep Basin of Northern South China Sea: A Decadal Time Series Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hon-Kit Lui

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the driving forces of absorption of anthropogenic CO2 by the oceans is critical for a sustainable ocean carbon cycle. Decadal sinking particle flux data collected at 1000 m, 2000 m, and 3500 m at the South East Asia Time Series Study (SEATS Station (18° N, 116° E, which was located in the northern South China Sea (nSCS, show that the fluxes undergo strong seasonal and interannual variability. Changes in the flux data are correlated with the satellite-derived chlorophyll-a concentration, indicating that the mass fluxes of the sinking particles are largely controlled by the export production at or near the SEATS station. The cooling of seawater and the strengthening of wind in winter increase the nutrient inventories in the euphotic zone, thus also increasing export production in the nSCS. This study reveals that the intrusion of low-nutrient seawater from the West Philippine Sea into the nSCS significantly reduces the productivity, and hence the flux, of sinking particles.

  14. Climatic signals and frequencies in the Swedish Time Scale, River Aangermanaelven, Central Sweden

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sander, Mikkel

    2003-03-01

    Any future climate variation forced by human activities will be superimposed on the background of natural climate variation. Therefore, before interpreting the present climate and addressing future climate scenarios some knowledge of past climate is necessary. This thesis offers a rare glimpse into a long record of fluvial activity in Central Sweden and illuminates some of the possible forcing agent behind past (and future) discharge variation. Along the Swedish East Coast varved deposits of sand silt and clay couplets make up a chronology, which extend from the present into the Late Glacial. This chronology is known as the Swedish Time Scale (STS) and the c. 8000 varves were deposited in River Aangermanaelven, Central Sweden. Of these varves, the last c. 2000 years are considered secure in terms of coherent chronology and internal thickness variation. A 2000 year long geometric mean varve thickness series was calculated to account for the internal thickness variation, which is postulated to form a proxy for fluvial sediment transport. Geometric mean varve thickness was compared to observed maximum daily annual discharge Qmax (1909-1971 AD) and the relationship expressed in a power equation. Thus, a reconstruction of past discharge for the last 2000 years could be produced. Extreme reconstructed discharge events were shown to be reasonable, considering the range of the observed discharge. Observed Qmax normally occurs during the snow melt flood. Thus it is reasonable to attribute the variation in reconstructed Qmax to the snow melt flood and, therefore, to melt water generation. Accumulated observed winter precipitation data from eleven meteorological stations from within and in the vicinity of the Aangermanaelven catchment were compared to Qmax. Nine time series shared variation with Qmax and were complied into an average accumulated winter precipitation series. This series shares c. 40% of its variation with Qmax (observed and reconstructed) and it is reasonable

  15. [Construction of the Time Management Scale and examination of the influence of time management on psychological stress response].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imura, Tomoya; Takamura, Masahiro; Okazaki, Yoshihiro; Tokunaga, Satoko

    2016-10-01

    We developed a scale to measure time management and assessed its reliability and validity. We then used this scale to examine the impact of time management on psychological stress response. In Study 1-1, we developed the scale and assessed its internal consistency and criterion-related validity. Findings from a factor analysis revealed three elements of time management, “time estimation,” “time utilization,” and “taking each moment as it comes.” In Study 1-2, we assessed the scale’s test-retest reliability. In Study 1-3, we assessed the validity of the constructed scale. The results indicate that the time management scale has good reliability and validity. In Study 2, we performed a covariance structural analysis to verify our model that hypothesized that time management influences perceived control of time and psychological stress response, and perceived control of time influences psychological stress response. The results showed that time estimation increases the perceived control of time, which in turn decreases stress response. However, we also found that taking each moment as it comes reduces perceived control of time, which in turn increases stress response.

  16. Time-variable stress transfer across a megathrust from seismic to Wilson cycle scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenau, Matthias; Angiboust, Samuel; Moreno, Marcos; Schurr, Bernd; Oncken, Onno

    2013-04-01

    During the lifetime of a convergent plate margin stress transfer across the plate interface (a megathrust) can be expected to vary at multiple timescales. At short time scales (years to decades), a subduction megathrust interface appears coupled (accumulating shear stress) at shallow depth (seismogenic zone proportional to effective normal load but also to relative shear stress. For areas of near complete stress drop locking might systematically decrease over the interseismic period from >80-95 % shortly after an earthquake to backslip at significant fractions of plate convergence rate (non-volcanic tremor and slow slip below the seismogenic zone represent short term episodes of metamorphic fluid infiltration into the shallow megathrust. A megathrust fault valve mechanism clocked by the greatest earthquakes then accounts for cyclic fluid pressure build up and drainage at sub-seismic cycle scale. As pore pressure dynamics are controlled primarily by permeability which in turn is controlled by structure and material properties, then more long term coupling transients associated with structural evolution of the plate margin can be implied. Fluid controlled transients might interfere with transients and secular trends resulting from changes in material strength and plate tectonic forces over the Wilson cycle resulting in a multispectral stress-transfer pattern associated with convergent margin evolution. Because of the viscous damping effect of the underlying asthenosphere, however, only longterm transients (periods >1-10 ka) are transmitted into the engaged plates. We therefore speculate that the multispectral nature of stress transfer across a megathrust filtered through the asthenosphere explains transient fault activity in some intraplate settings.

  17. Finite-Time Stability of Large-Scale Systems with Interval Time-Varying Delay in Interconnection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. La-inchua

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigate finite-time stability of a class of nonlinear large-scale systems with interval time-varying delays in interconnection. Time-delay functions are continuous but not necessarily differentiable. Based on Lyapunov stability theory and new integral bounding technique, finite-time stability of large-scale systems with interval time-varying delays in interconnection is derived. The finite-time stability criteria are delays-dependent and are given in terms of linear matrix inequalities which can be solved by various available algorithms. Numerical examples are given to illustrate effectiveness of the proposed method.

  18. Perception of short time scale intervals in a hypnotic virtuoso

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Noreika, Valdas; Falter, Christine M.; Arstila, Valtteri; Wearden, John H.; Kallio, Sakari

    2012-01-01

    Previous studies showed that hypnotized individuals underestimate temporal intervals in the range of several seconds to tens of minutes. However, no previous work has investigated whether duration perception is equally disorderly when shorter time intervals are probed. In this study, duration

  19. Coherent spectroscopies on ultrashort time and length scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schneider C.

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Three spectroscopic techniques are presented that provide simultaneous spatial and temporal resolution: modified confocal microscopy with heterodyne detection, space-time-resolved spectroscopy using coherent control concepts, and coherent two-dimensional nano-spectroscopy. Latest experimental results are discussed.

  20. Does expressive timing in music performance scale proportionally with tempo?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Desain, P.; Honing, H.

    1994-01-01

    Evidence is presented that expressive timing in music is not relationally invariant with global tempo. Our results stem from an analysis of repeated performances of Beethoven's variations on a Paisiello theme. Recordings were made of two pianists playing the pieces at three tempi. In contrast with

  1. Global Precipitation Analyses at Time Scales of Monthly to 3-Hourly

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George; Curtis, Scott; Bolvin, David; Nelkin, Eric; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    Global precipitation analysis covering the last few decades and the impact of the new TRMM precipitation observations are discussed. The 20+ year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is used to explore global and regional variations and trends and is compared to the much shorter TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) tropical data set. The GPCP data set shows no significant trend in precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. Regional trends are also analyzed. A trend pattern that is a combination of both El Nino and La Nina precipitation features is evident in the Goodyear data set. This pattern is related to an increase with time in the number of combined months of El Nino and La Nina during the Goodyear period. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENRON variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The GPCP daily, 1 degree latitude-longitude analysis, which is available from January 1997 to the present is described and the evolution of precipitation patterns on this time scale related to El Nino and La Nina is described. Finally, a TRMM-based Based analysis is described that uses TRMM to calibrate polar-orbit microwave observations from SSM/I and geosynchronous OR observations and merges the various calibrated observations into a final, Baehr resolution map. This TRMM standard product will be available for the entire TRMM period (January Represent). A real-time version of this merged product is being produced and is available at 0.25 degree latitude-longitude resolution over the latitude range from 50 deg. N -50 deg. S. Examples will be shown, including its use in monitoring flood conditions.

  2. The case for a Supersite for real-time GNSS hazard monitoring on a global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bar-Sever, Y. E.

    2017-12-01

    Real-time measurements from many hundreds of GNSS tracking sites around the world are publicly available today, and the amount of streaming data is steadily increasing as national agencies densify their local and global infrastructure for natural hazard monitoring and a variety of geodetic, cadastral, and other civil applications. Thousands of such sites can soon be expected on a global scale. It is a challenge to manage and make optimal use of this massive amount of real-time data. We advocate the creation of Supersite(s), in the parlance of the U.N. Global Earth Observation System of Systems (https://www.earthobservations.org/geoss.php), to generate high level real-time data products from the raw GNSS measurements from all available sources (many thousands of sites). These products include: • High rate, real-time positioning time series for assessing rapid crustal motion due to Earthquakes, volcanic activities, land slides, etc. • Co-seismic displacement to help resolve earthquake mechanism and moment magnitude • Real-time total electron content (TEC) fluctuations to augment Dart buoy in detecting and tracking tsunamis • Aggregation of the many disparate raw data dispensation servers (Casters)Recognizing that natural hazards transcend national boundaries in terms of direct and indirect (e.g., economical, security) impact, the benefits from centralized, authoritative processing of GNSS measurements is manifold: • Offers a one-stop shop to less developed nations and institutions for raw and high-level products, in support of research and applications • Promotes the installation of tracking sites and the contribution of data from nations without the ability to process the data • Reduce dependency on local responsible agencies impacted by a natural disaster • Reliable 24/7 operations, independent of voluntary, best effort contributions from good-willing scientific organizationsThe JPL GNSS Real-Time Earthquake and Tsunami (GREAT) Alert has been

  3. Modelling financial markets with agents competing on different time scales and with different amount of information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wohlmuth, Johannes; Andersen, Jørgen Vitting

    2006-05-01

    We use agent-based models to study the competition among investors who use trading strategies with different amount of information and with different time scales. We find that mixing agents that trade on the same time scale but with different amount of information has a stabilizing impact on the large and extreme fluctuations of the market. Traders with the most information are found to be more likely to arbitrage traders who use less information in the decision making. On the other hand, introducing investors who act on two different time scales has a destabilizing effect on the large and extreme price movements, increasing the volatility of the market. Closeness in time scale used in the decision making is found to facilitate the creation of local trends. The larger the overlap in commonly shared information the more the traders in a mixed system with different time scales are found to profit from the presence of traders acting at another time scale than themselves.

  4. Structure and dating errors in the geologic time scale and periodicity in mass extinctions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stothers, Richard B.

    1989-01-01

    Structure in the geologic time scale reflects a partly paleontological origin. As a result, ages of Cenozoic and Mesozoic stage boundaries exhibit a weak 28-Myr periodicity that is similar to the strong 26-Myr periodicity detected in mass extinctions of marine life by Raup and Sepkoski. Radiometric dating errors in the geologic time scale, to which the mass extinctions are stratigraphically tied, do not necessarily lessen the likelihood of a significant periodicity in mass extinctions, but do spread the acceptable values of the period over the range 25-27 Myr for the Harland et al. time scale or 25-30 Myr for the DNAG time scale. If the Odin time scale is adopted, acceptable periods fall between 24 and 33 Myr, but are not robust against dating errors. Some indirect evidence from independently-dated flood-basalt volcanic horizons tends to favor the Odin time scale.

  5. Qualitative aspects of Volterra integro-dynamic system on time scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vasile Lupulescu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the resolvent, asymptotic stability and boundedness of the solution of time-varying Volterra integro-dynamic system on time scales in which the coefficient matrix is not necessarily stable. We generalize at time scale some known properties about asymptotic behavior and boundedness from the continuous case. Some new results for discrete case are obtained.

  6. Time-scale invariance as an emergent property in a perceptron with realistic, noisy neurons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buhusi, Catalin V; Oprisan, Sorinel A

    2013-05-01

    In most species, interval timing is time-scale invariant: errors in time estimation scale up linearly with the estimated duration. In mammals, time-scale invariance is ubiquitous over behavioral, lesion, and pharmacological manipulations. For example, dopaminergic drugs induce an immediate, whereas cholinergic drugs induce a gradual, scalar change in timing. Behavioral theories posit that time-scale invariance derives from particular computations, rules, or coding schemes. In contrast, we discuss a simple neural circuit, the perceptron, whose output neurons fire in a clockwise fashion based on the pattern of coincidental activation of its input neurons. We show numerically that time-scale invariance emerges spontaneously in a perceptron with realistic neurons, in the presence of noise. Under the assumption that dopaminergic drugs modulate the firing of input neurons, and that cholinergic drugs modulate the memory representation of the criterion time, we show that a perceptron with realistic neurons reproduces the pharmacological clock and memory patterns, and their time-scale invariance, in the presence of noise. These results suggest that rather than being a signature of higher order cognitive processes or specific computations related to timing, time-scale invariance may spontaneously emerge in a massively connected brain from the intrinsic noise of neurons and circuits, thus providing the simplest explanation for the ubiquity of scale invariance of interval timing. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. A Study on Time-Scales Ratio and Turbulent Prandtl Number in Ducts of Industrial Applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rokni, Masoud

    2006-01-01

    is solved using a two-equation heat flux model. The computed results compare satisfactory with the available experimental data. The time-scale ratio R is defined as the ratio between the dynamic time-scale (k/ε) and the scalar time-scale(0.5θθ/εθ). Based on existing DNS data and calculations in this work...... of heat exchangers for various applications area....

  8. Time scales of solar microwave bursts and scenarios of flare enregy release

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krueger, A.; Kliem, B.; Hildebrandt, J.

    1989-01-01

    Based on earlier observational evidence that characteristic time scales of different solar microwave burst types are distributed over a wide range (10 -3 -10 4 sec), different mechanisms of energy release have been considered to account for the impulsive flux increase (time scale 3 sec). Among different competing processes the coalescence instability is found to be a promising candidate to combine sufficiently short time scales with substantial energy release. (author). 20 refs.; 1 fig

  9. Long time scale simulation of a grain boundary in copper

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, A.; Henkelman, G.; Schiøtz, Jakob

    2009-01-01

    A general, twisted and tilted, grain boundary in copper has been simulated using the adaptive kinetic Monte Carlo method to study the atomistic structure of the non-crystalline region and the mechanism of annealing events that occur at low temperature. The simulated time interval spanned 67 mu s...... was also observed. In the final low-energy configurations, the thickness of the region separating the crystalline grains corresponds to just one atomic layer, in good agreement with reported experimental observations. The simulated system consists of 1307 atoms and atomic interactions were described using...

  10. Global Exponential Stability of Delayed Cohen-Grossberg BAM Neural Networks with Impulses on Time Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongkun Li

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on the theory of calculus on time scales, the homeomorphism theory, Lyapunov functional method, and some analysis techniques, sufficient conditions are obtained for the existence, uniqueness, and global exponential stability of the equilibrium point of Cohen-Grossberg bidirectional associative memory (BAM neural networks with distributed delays and impulses on time scales. This is the first time applying the time-scale calculus theory to unify the discrete-time and continuous-time Cohen-Grossberg BAM neural network with impulses under the same framework.

  11. A Novel Multiple-Time Scale Integrator for the Hybrid Monte Carlo Algorithm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kamleh, Waseem

    2011-01-01

    Hybrid Monte Carlo simulations that implement the fermion action using multiple terms are commonly used. By the nature of their formulation they involve multiple integration time scales in the evolution of the system through simulation time. These different scales are usually dealt with by the Sexton-Weingarten nested leapfrog integrator. In this scheme the choice of time scales is somewhat restricted as each time step must be an exact multiple of the next smallest scale in the sequence. A novel generalisation of the nested leapfrog integrator is introduced which allows for far greater flexibility in the choice of time scales, as each scale now must only be an exact multiple of the smallest step size.

  12. Time scales and the problem of radioactive waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goble, R.L.

    1984-01-01

    The author argues that decisions about future nuclear development can be made essentially independent of waste management considerations for the next 20 years. His arguments are based on five propositions: 1 Risks and costs of storing spent fuel or high-level waste and transuranics are lower than other directly comparable risks and costs of operating a reactor. 2 Storage of mill tailings is the most serious long-term waste problem; it is not serious enough to rule out the use of nuclear power. 3 There are compelling reasons for beginning to implement a waste management program now. 4 It is important to separate the problem of providing temporary storage from that of finding permanent repositories. 5 A prudent waste management strategy, by 2000, will have identified and evaluated more than enough repository space for the waste generated by that time, independent of the decision made about nuclear futures. 13 references, 4 figures, 4 tables

  13. A short-time scale colloidal system reveals early bacterial adhesion dynamics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christophe Beloin

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available The development of bacteria on abiotic surfaces has important public health and sanitary consequences. However, despite several decades of study of bacterial adhesion to inert surfaces, the biophysical mechanisms governing this process remain poorly understood, due, in particular, to the lack of methodologies covering the appropriate time scale. Using micrometric colloidal surface particles and flow cytometry analysis, we developed a rapid multiparametric approach to studying early events in adhesion of the bacterium Escherichia coli. This approach simultaneously describes the kinetics and amplitude of early steps in adhesion, changes in physicochemical surface properties within the first few seconds of adhesion, and the self-association state of attached and free-floating cells. Examination of the role of three well-characterized E. coli surface adhesion factors upon attachment to colloidal surfaces--curli fimbriae, F-conjugative pilus, and Ag43 adhesin--showed clear-cut differences in the very initial phases of surface colonization for cell-bearing surface structures, all known to promote biofilm development. Our multiparametric analysis revealed a correlation in the adhesion phase with cell-to-cell aggregation properties and demonstrated that this phenomenon amplified surface colonization once initial cell-surface attachment was achieved. Monitoring of real-time physico-chemical particle surface properties showed that surface-active molecules of bacterial origin quickly modified surface properties, providing new insight into the intricate relations connecting abiotic surface physicochemical properties and bacterial adhesion. Hence, the biophysical analytical method described here provides a new and relevant approach to quantitatively and kinetically investigating bacterial adhesion and biofilm development.

  14. Monsoon rainfall behaviour in recent times on local/regional scale in India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singh, Surender; Rao, V.U.M.; Singh, Diwan

    2002-08-01

    An attempt has been made here to investigate the local/regional monsoon rainfall behaviour in the meteorological sub-division no. 13 comprising the areas of Haryana, Delhi and Chandigarh in India. The monthly monsoon rainfall data of 30 years (1970-99) of different locations in the region were used for the investigation. All locations except Delhi received more rainfall in monsoon season during the decade (1990-99) showing general increasing trend in the rainfall behaviour in recent times. The mean monsoon rainfall at various locations ranged between 324.8 mm at Sirsa and 974.9 mm at Chandigarh. The major amount of monsoon rainfall occurred during the month of July and August in the entire region. Monthly mean rainfall ranged between 37.5 to 144.9 mm (June), 130.6 to 298.2 mm (July), 92.6 to 313.6 mm (August) and 44.0 to 149.4mm (September) at different locations. All the locations in the region exhibited overall increasing trend in monsoon rainfall over the period under study. All locations in the region received their lowest monsoon rainfall in the year 1987 which was a drought year and the season's rainfall ranged between 56.1 mm (Sirsa) and 290.0 mm (Delhi) during this year. Many of the locations observed clusters of fluctuations in their respective monsoon rainfall. The statistical summaries of historical data series (1970-99) gave rainfall information on various time scale. Such information acquires value through its influence on the decision making of the ultimate users. (author)

  15. RECENT GEODYNAMICS OF FAULT ZONES: FAULTING IN REAL TIME SCALE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu. O. Kuzmin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent deformation processes taking place in real time are analyzed on the basis of data on fault zones which were collected by long-term detailed geodetic survey studies with application of field methods and satellite monitoring.A new category of recent crustal movements is described and termed as parametrically induced tectonic strain in fault zones. It is shown that in the fault zones located in seismically active and aseismic regions, super intensive displacements of the crust (5 to 7 cm per year, i.e. (5 to 7·10–5 per year occur due to very small external impacts of natural or technogenic / industrial origin.The spatial discreteness of anomalous deformation processes is established along the strike of the regional Rechitsky fault in the Pripyat basin. It is concluded that recent anomalous activity of the fault zones needs to be taken into account in defining regional regularities of geodynamic processes on the basis of real-time measurements.The paper presents results of analyses of data collected by long-term (20 to 50 years geodetic surveys in highly seismically active regions of Kopetdag, Kamchatka and California. It is evidenced by instrumental geodetic measurements of recent vertical and horizontal displacements in fault zones that deformations are ‘paradoxically’ deviating from the inherited movements of the past geological periods.In terms of the recent geodynamics, the ‘paradoxes’ of high and low strain velocities are related to a reliable empirical fact of the presence of extremely high local velocities of deformations in the fault zones (about 10–5 per year and above, which take place at the background of slow regional deformations which velocities are lower by the order of 2 to 3. Very low average annual velocities of horizontal deformation are recorded in the seismic regions of Kopetdag and Kamchatka and in the San Andreas fault zone; they amount to only 3 to 5 amplitudes of the earth tidal deformations per year.A

  16. Salinization of aquifers at the regional scale by marine transgression: Time scales and processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armandine Les Landes, A.; Davy, P.; Aquilina, L.

    2014-12-01

    Saline fluids with moderate concentrations have been sampled and reported in the Armorican basement at the regional scale (northwestern France). The horizontal and vertical distributions of high chloride concentrations (60-1400mg/L) at the regional scale support the marine origin and provide constraints on the age of these saline fluids. The current distribution of fresh and "saline" groundwater at depth is the result mostly of processes occurring at geological timescales - seawater intrusion processes followed by fresh groundwater flushing -, and only slightly of recent anthropogenic activities. In this study, we focus on seawater intrusion mechanisms in continental aquifers. We argue that one of the most efficient processes in macrotidal environments is the gravity-driven downconing instability below coastal salinized rivers. 2-D numerical experiments have been used to quantify this process according to four main parameter types: (1) the groundwater system permeability, (2) the salinity degree of the river, (3) the river width and slope, and (4) the tidal amplitude. A general expression of the salinity inflow rates have been derived, which has been used to estimate groundwater salinization rates in Brittany, given the geomorphological and environmental characteristics (drainage basin area, river widths and slopes, tidal range, aquifer permeability). We found that downconing below coastal rivers entail very high saline rates, indicating that this process play a major role in the salinization of regional aquifers. This is also likely to be an issue in the context of climate change, where sea-level rise is expected.

  17. Neural Computations in a Dynamical System with Multiple Time Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuanyuan Mi

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Neural systems display rich short-term dynamics at various levels, e.g., spike-frequencyadaptation (SFA at single neurons, and short-term facilitation (STF and depression (STDat neuronal synapses. These dynamical features typically covers a broad range of time scalesand exhibit large diversity in different brain regions. It remains unclear what the computationalbenefit for the brain to have such variability in short-term dynamics is. In this study, we proposethat the brain can exploit such dynamical features to implement multiple seemingly contradictorycomputations in a single neural circuit. To demonstrate this idea, we use continuous attractorneural network (CANN as a working model and include STF, SFA and STD with increasing timeconstants in their dynamics. Three computational tasks are considered, which are persistent activity,adaptation, and anticipative tracking. These tasks require conflicting neural mechanisms, andhence cannot be implemented by a single dynamical feature or any combination with similar timeconstants. However, with properly coordinated STF, SFA and STD, we show that the network isable to implement the three computational tasks concurrently. We hope this study will shed lighton the understanding of how the brain orchestrates its rich dynamics at various levels to realizediverse cognitive functions.

  18. Marine Dispersal Scales Are Congruent over Evolutionary and Ecological Time

    KAUST Repository

    Pinsky, Malin L.

    2016-12-15

    The degree to which offspring remain near their parents or disperse widely is critical for understanding population dynamics, evolution, and biogeography, and for designing conservation actions. In the ocean, most estimates suggesting short-distance dispersal are based on direct ecological observations of dispersing individuals, while indirect evolutionary estimates often suggest substantially greater homogeneity among populations. Reconciling these two approaches and their seemingly competing perspectives on dispersal has been a major challenge. Here we show for the first time that evolutionary and ecological measures of larval dispersal can closely agree by using both to estimate the distribution of dispersal distances. In orange clownfish (Amphiprion percula) populations in Kimbe Bay, Papua New Guinea, we found that evolutionary dispersal kernels were 17 km (95% confidence interval: 12–24 km) wide, while an exhaustive set of direct larval dispersal observations suggested kernel widths of 27 km (19–36 km) or 19 km (15–27 km) across two years. The similarity between these two approaches suggests that ecological and evolutionary dispersal kernels can be equivalent, and that the apparent disagreement between direct and indirect measurements can be overcome. Our results suggest that carefully applied evolutionary methods, which are often less expensive, can be broadly relevant for understanding ecological dispersal across the tree of life.

  19. Updating the planetary time scale: focus on Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanaka, Kenneth L.; Quantin-Nataf, Cathy

    2013-01-01

    Formal stratigraphic systems have been developed for the surface materials of the Moon, Mars, Mercury, and the Galilean satellite Ganymede. These systems are based on geologic mapping, which establishes relative ages of surfaces delineated by superposition, morphology, impact crater densities, and other relations and features. Referent units selected from the mapping determine time-stratigraphic bases and/or representative materials characteristic of events and periods for definition of chronologic units. Absolute ages of these units in some cases can be estimated using crater size-frequency data. For the Moon, the chronologic units and cratering record are calibrated by radiometric ages measured from samples collected from the lunar surface. Model ages for other cratered planetary surfaces are constructed primarily by estimating cratering rates relative to that of the Moon. Other cratered bodies with estimated surface ages include Venus and the Galilean satellites of Jupiter. New global geologic mapping and crater dating studies of Mars are resulting in more accurate and detailed reconstructions of its geologic history.

  20. Science at the Time-scale of the Electron

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murnane, Margaret

    2010-03-01

    Replace this text with your abstract Ever since the invention of the laser 50 years ago and its application in nonlinear optics, scientists have been striving to extend coherent laser beams into the x-ray region of the spectrum. Very recently however, the prospects for tabletop coherent sources, with attosecond pulse durations, at very short wavelengths even in the hard x-ray region of the spectrum at wavelengths movie of how electron orbitals in a molecule change shape as a molecule breaks apart, following how fast a magnetic material can flip orientation, understanding how fast heat flows in a nanocircuit, or building a microscope without lenses. [4pt] [1] T. Popmintchev et al., ``Phase matched upconversion of coherent ultrafast laser light into the soft and hard x-ray regions of the spectrum'', PNAS 106, 10516 (2009). [0pt] [2] C. LaOVorakiat et al., ``Ultrafast Soft X-Ray Magneto-Optics at the M-edge Using a Tabletop High-Harmonic Source'', Physical Review Letters 103, 257402 (2009). [0pt] [3] M. Siemens et al. ``Measurement of quasi-ballistic heat transport across nanoscale interfaces using ultrafast coherent soft x-ray beams'', Nature Materials 9, 26 (2010). [0pt] [4] K. Raines et al., ``Three-dimensional structure determination from a single view,'' Nature 463, 214 (2010). [0pt] [5] W. Li et al., ``Time-resolved Probing of Dynamics in Polyatomic Molecules using High Harmonic Generation'', Science 322, 1207 (2008).

  1. Biochemical recovery time scales in elderly patients with osteomalacia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, S C; Raut, S

    2004-01-01

    Osteomalacia is not rare in the UK and climatically similar countries, particularly in elderly people and those of Asian descent. Overt clinical osteomalacia is usually treated with a loading dose of vitamin D, followed by a regular supplement. However, little is known of the time taken to reach a stable biochemical state after starting treatment. Such information would shed light on the duration of the bone remineralization phase and guide decisions on the length of follow-up. To address this we conducted a 2-year follow-up study of 42 patients (35 female, mean age 80.8 years) with biopsy proven osteomalacia treated with a standard replacement regimen and general nutritional support. Although normocalcaemia was attained within 4 weeks the mean values continued to rise, to a mid-range plateau at 52 weeks. The phosphate and alkaline phosphatase values also took at least a year to reach a stable mean, with a slight further trend towards the mid-range for the entire 104 weeks. The mean serum albumin also rose throughout the first 52 weeks, indicating an effective response to the general nutritional support measures. Our observations suggest that the dynamic relationship between calcium, phosphate and bone requires at least a year, and probably longer, to reach an equilibrium after treatment for osteomalacia in elderly patients. The findings emphasize the need for close medical and social follow-up in this clinical context. PMID:15520146

  2. Analysis of Decadal-Scale Shoreline Change along the Hamlet of Paulatuk (Canadian Arctic), using Landsat Satellite Imagery and GIS techniques from 1984 to 2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sankar, R. D.; Murray, M. S.; Wells, P.

    2016-12-01

    Increased accuracy in estimating coastal change along localized segments of the Canadian Arctic coast is essential, in order to identify plausible adaptation initiatives to deal with the effects of climate change. This paper quantifies rates of shoreline movement along an 11 km segment of the Hamlet of Paulatuk (Northwest Territories, Canada), using an innovative modelling technique - Analyzing Moving Boundaries Using R (AMBUR). Approximately two dozen shorelines, obtained from high-resolution Landsat satellite imagery were analyzed. Shorelines were extracted using the band ratio method and compiled in ArcMapTM to determine decadal trends of coastal change. The unique geometry of Paulatuk facilitated an independent analysis of the western and eastern sections of the study area. Long-term (1984-2014) and short-term (1984-2003) erosion and accretion rates were calculated using the Linear Regression and End Point Rate methods respectively. Results reveal an elevated rate of erosion for the western section of the hamlet over the long-term (-1.1 m/yr), compared to the eastern portion (-0.92 m/yr). The study indicates a significant alongshore increase in the rates of erosion on both portions of the study area, over the short-term period 1984 to 2003. Mean annual erosion rates increased over the short-term along the western segment (-1.4 m/yr), while the eastern shoreline retreated at a rate of -1.3 m/yr over the same period. The analysis indicates that an amalgamation of factors may be responsible for the patterns of land loss experienced along Paulatuk. These include increased sea-surface temperature coupled with dwindling arctic ice and elevated storm hydrodynamics. The analysis further reveals that the coastline along the eastern portion of the hamlet, where the majority of the population reside, is vulnerable to a high rate of shoreline erosion.

  3. Atmospheric modelling and prediction at time scales from days to seasons

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Landman, WA

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available to seasonal forecasts, and produce multi-decadal climate change projections. This paper focuses on the shorter time-range from days to seasons. The conformal-cubic atmospheric model (CCAM) is an atmospheric global circulation model (AGCM) that can operate...

  4. Collaborative Research: Quantifying the Uncertainties of Aerosol Indirect Effects and Impacts on Decadal-Scale Climate Variability in NCAR CAM5 and CESM1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nenes, Athanasios [Georgia Inst. of Technology, Atlanta, GA (United States)

    2017-06-23

    The goal of this proposed project is to assess the climatic importance and sensitivity of aerosol indirect effect (AIE) to cloud and aerosol processes and feedbacks, which include organic aerosol hygroscopicity, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activation kinetics, Giant CCN, cloud-scale entrainment, ice nucleation in mixed-phase and cirrus clouds, and treatment of subgrid variability of vertical velocity. A key objective was to link aerosol, cloud microphysics and dynamics feedbacks in CAM5 with a suite of internally consistent and integrated parameterizations that provide the appropriate degrees of freedom to capture the various aspects of the aerosol indirect effect. The proposal integrated new parameterization elements into the cloud microphysics, moist turbulence and aerosol modules used by the NCAR Community Atmospheric Model version 5 (CAM5). The CAM5 model was then used to systematically quantify the uncertainties of aerosol indirect effects through a series of sensitivity tests with present-day and preindustrial aerosol emissions. New parameterization elements were developed as a result of these efforts, and new diagnostic tools & methodologies were also developed to quantify the impacts of aerosols on clouds and climate within fully coupled models. Observations were used to constrain key uncertainties in the aerosol-cloud links. Advanced sensitivity tools were developed and implements to probe the drivers of cloud microphysical variability with unprecedented temporal and spatial scale. All these results have been published in top and high impact journals (or are in the final stages of publication). This proposal has also supported a number of outstanding graduate students.

  5. Fission time-scale from the measurement of pre-scission light ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    and hence can only probe a part of the fission time distribution. .... with the conclusion of recent fission time-scale measurements using the fission probability ... using the statistical model code JOANNE2 suitably modified to include the GDR ...

  6. Decadal GPS Time Series and Velocity Fields Spanning the North American Continent and Beyond: New Data Products, Cyberinfrastructure and Case Studies from the EarthScope Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO) and Other Regional Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, D. A.; Herring, T.; Melbourne, T. I.; Murray, M. H.; Szeliga, W. M.; Floyd, M.; Puskas, C. M.; King, R. W.; Boler, F. M.; Meertens, C. M.; Mattioli, G. S.

    2017-12-01

    The Geodesy Advancing Geosciences and EarthScope (GAGE) Facility, operated by UNAVCO, provides a diverse suite of geodetic data, derived products and cyberinfrastructure services to support community Earth science research and education. GPS data and products including decadal station position time series and velocities are provided for 2000+ continuous GPS stations from the Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO) and other networks distributed throughout the high Arctic, North America, and Caribbean regions. The position time series contain a multitude of signals in addition to the secular motions, including coseismic and postseismic displacements, interseismic strain accumulation, and transient signals associated with hydrologic and other processes. We present our latest velocity field solutions, new time series offset estimate products, and new time series examples associated with various phenomena. Position time series, and the signals they contain, are inherently dependent upon analysis parameters such as network scaling and reference frame realization. The estimation of scale changes for example, a common practice, has large impacts on vertical motion estimates. GAGE/PBO velocities and time series are currently provided in IGS (IGb08) and North America (NAM08, IGb08 rotated to a fixed North America Plate) reference frames. We are reprocessing all data (1996 to present) as part of the transition from IGb08 to IGS14 that began in 2017. New NAM14 and IGS14 data products are discussed. GAGE/PBO GPS data products are currently generated using onsite computing clusters. As part of an NSF funded EarthCube Building Blocks project called "Deploying MultiFacility Cyberinfrastructure in Commercial and Private Cloud-based Systems (GeoSciCloud)", we are investigating performance, cost, and efficiency differences between local computing resources and cloud based resources. Test environments include a commercial cloud provider (Amazon/AWS), NSF cloud-like infrastructures within

  7. How Robust Are the Surface Temperature Fingerprints of the Atlantic Overturning Meridional Circulation on Monthly Time Scales?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander-Turner, R.; Ortega, P.; Robson, J. I.

    2018-04-01

    It has been suggested that changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) can drive sea surface temperature (SST) on monthly time scales (Duchez et al., 2016, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GB005667). However, with only 11 years of continuous observations, the validity of this result over longer, or different, time periods is uncertain. In this study, we use a 120 yearlong control simulation from a high-resolution climate model to test the robustness of the AMOC fingerprints. The model reproduces the observed AMOC seasonal cycle and its variability, and the observed 5-month lagged AMOC-SST fingerprints derived from 11 years of data. However, the AMOC-SST fingerprints are very sensitive to the particular time period considered. In particular, both the Florida current and the upper mid-ocean transport produce highly inconsistent fingerprints when using time periods shorter than 30 years. Therefore, several decades of RAPID observations will be necessary to determine the real impact of the AMOC on SSTs at monthly time scales.

  8. Measures of spike train synchrony for data with multiple time scales

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Satuvuori, Eero; Mulansky, Mario; Bozanic, Nebojsa; Malvestio, Irene; Zeldenrust, Fleur; Lenk, Kerstin; Kreuz, Thomas

    2017-01-01

    Background Measures of spike train synchrony are widely used in both experimental and computational neuroscience. Time-scale independent and parameter-free measures, such as the ISI-distance, the SPIKE-distance and SPIKE-synchronization, are preferable to time scale parametric measures, since by

  9. Decades with four double triodes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wahl, R.

    1952-01-01

    Decades with four double triodes The described decade consists of four double triodes and four crystals germanium; which has the following characteristics: - Attack in negative impulses. - Sensitivity 12 volts ± 40 % for signals of 1 μs about. - Time of resolution 2,5 μs. - Voltage 250 v ± 40 %. - heating 6,3 v ± 40 %. - Tolerance on the values of the elements of installation 10%. (author) [fr

  10. Arctic energy budget in relation to sea-ice variability on monthly to annual time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krikken, Folmer; Hazeleger, Wilco

    2015-04-01

    The strong decrease in Arctic sea-ice in recent years has triggered a strong interest in Arctic sea-ice predictions on seasonal to decadal time scales. Hence, it is key to understand physical processes that provide enhanced predictability beyond persistence of sea ice anomalies. The authors report on an analysis of natural variability of Arctic sea-ice from an energy budget perspective, using 15 CMIP5 climate models, and comparing these results to atmospheric and oceanic reanalyses data. We quantify the persistence of sea ice anomalies and the cross-correlation with the surface and top energy budget components. The Arctic energy balance components primarily indicate the important role of the seasonal sea-ice albedo feedback, in which sea-ice anomalies in the melt season reemerge in the growth season. This is a robust anomaly reemergence mechanism among all 15 climate models. The role of ocean lies mainly in storing heat content anomalies in spring, and releasing them in autumn. Ocean heat flux variations only play a minor role. The role of clouds is further investigated. We demonstrate that there is no direct atmospheric response of clouds to spring sea-ice anomalies, but a delayed response is evident in autumn. Hence, there is no cloud-ice feedback in late spring and summer, but there is a cloud-ice feedback in autumn, which strengthens the ice-albedo feedback. Anomalies in insolation are positively correlated with sea-ice variability. This is primarily a result of reduced multiple-reflection of insolation due to an albedo decrease. This effect counteracts the sea-ice albedo effect up to 50%. ERA-Interim and ORAS4 confirm the main findings from the climate models.

  11. More than a decade of experience of landfill leachate treatment with a full-scale anammox plant combining activated sludge and activated carbon biofilm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azari, Mohammad; Walter, Uwe; Rekers, Volker; Gu, Ji-Dong; Denecke, Martin

    2017-05-01

    The performance of biological treatment for high ammonium removal from landfill leachate has been demonstrated. The plant was upgraded combining the activated sludge process followed by activated carbon reactor. Based on a long-term analysis of data collected from 2006 to 2015, the average total nitrogen removal efficiency of 94% was achieved for wastewaters with a C: N ratio varying from 1 to 5 kg-COD kg-TN -1 . But without the presence of activated carbon reactor, the average of biological removal efficiency for total nitrogen was only 82% ± 6% for the activated sludge stage. It means that up to 20% of the nitrogen in the influent can only be eliminated by microorganisms attached to granular activated carbon. After upgrades of the plant, the energy efficiency showed a reduction in the specific energy demand from 1.6 to less than 0.2 kWh m -3 . Methanol consumption and sludge production was reduced by 91% and 96%, respectively. Fluorescent in situ Hybridization was used for microbial diversity analysis on floccular sludge and granular biofilm samples. Anaerobic ammonium oxidation (anammox) bacteria and nitrifiers were detected and Candidatus Scalindua was found in two forms of flocs and biofilms. Due to stochastic risk assessment based on the long-term data analysis given in this research, the treatment criteria were achieved and the combination of granular activated carbon biofilm process and activated sludge can be a novel and sought approach to better enrich anammox biomass for full-scale treatment applications to reduce operating costs and promote nutrient removal stability and efficiency. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. A Dynamical System Approach Explaining the Process of Development by Introducing Different Time-scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashemi Kamangar, Somayeh Sadat; Moradimanesh, Zahra; Mokhtari, Setareh; Bakouie, Fatemeh

    2018-06-11

    A developmental process can be described as changes through time within a complex dynamic system. The self-organized changes and emergent behaviour during development can be described and modeled as a dynamical system. We propose a dynamical system approach to answer the main question in human cognitive development i.e. the changes during development happens continuously or in discontinuous stages. Within this approach there is a concept; the size of time scales, which can be used to address the aforementioned question. We introduce a framework, by considering the concept of time-scale, in which "fast" and "slow" is defined by the size of time-scales. According to our suggested model, the overall pattern of development can be seen as one continuous function, with different time-scales in different time intervals.

  13. Time-scale calibration by U-Pb geochronology: Examples from the Triassic Period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mundil, R.

    2009-05-01

    U-Pb zircon geochronology, pioneered by Tom Krogh, is a cornerstone for the calibration of the time scale. Before Krogh's innovations, U-Pb geochronology was essentially limited by laboratory blank Pb (typically hundreds of nanograms) inherent in the then existing zircon dissolution and purification methods. The introduction of high pressure HF dissolution combined with miniature ion exchange columns (1) reduced the blank by orders of magnitude and allowed mass-spectrometric analyses of minute amounts of material (picograms of Pb and U). Krogh also recognized the need for minimizing the effects of Pb loss, and the introduction of the air-abrasion technique was the method of choice for two decades (2), until the development of the combined annealing and chemical abrasion technique resulted in essentially closed system zircons (3). These are the prerequisite for obtaining precise (permil-level) and accurate radio-isotopic ages of individual zircons contained in primary volcanic ash deposits, which are primary targets for the calibration of the time scale if they occur within fossil bearing sediments. A prime example is the calibration of the Triassic time scale which improved significantly using these techniques. The ages for the base and the top of the Triassic are constrained by U-Pb ages to 252.3 (4) and 201.5 Ma (5), respectively. These dates also constrain the ages of major extinction events at the Permian-Triassic and Triassic-Jurassic boundaries, and are statistically indistinguishable from ages obtained for the Siberian Traps and volcanic products from the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province, respectively, suggesting a causal link. Ages for these continental volcanics, however, are mostly from the K-Ar (40Ar/39Ar) system which requires accounting and correcting for a systematic bias of ca 1 % between U-Pb and 40Ar/39Ar isotopic ages (the 40Ar/39Ar ages being younger) (6). Robust U-Pb age constraints also exist for the Induan- Olenekian boundary (251.2 Ma, (7

  14. Super-transient scaling in time-delay autonomous Boolean network motifs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    D' Huys, Otti, E-mail: otti.dhuys@phy.duke.edu; Haynes, Nicholas D. [Department of Physics, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27708 (United States); Lohmann, Johannes [Department of Physics, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27708 (United States); Institut für Theoretische Physik, Technische Universität Berlin, Hardenbergstraße 36, 10623 Berlin (Germany); Gauthier, Daniel J. [Department of Physics, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27708 (United States); Department of Physics, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio 43210 (United States)

    2016-09-15

    Autonomous Boolean networks are commonly used to model the dynamics of gene regulatory networks and allow for the prediction of stable dynamical attractors. However, most models do not account for time delays along the network links and noise, which are crucial features of real biological systems. Concentrating on two paradigmatic motifs, the toggle switch and the repressilator, we develop an experimental testbed that explicitly includes both inter-node time delays and noise using digital logic elements on field-programmable gate arrays. We observe transients that last millions to billions of characteristic time scales and scale exponentially with the amount of time delays between nodes, a phenomenon known as super-transient scaling. We develop a hybrid model that includes time delays along network links and allows for stochastic variation in the delays. Using this model, we explain the observed super-transient scaling of both motifs and recreate the experimentally measured transient distributions.

  15. The multiple time scales of sleep dynamics as a challenge for modelling the sleeping brain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olbrich, Eckehard; Claussen, Jens Christian; Achermann, Peter

    2011-10-13

    A particular property of the sleeping brain is that it exhibits dynamics on very different time scales ranging from the typical sleep oscillations such as sleep spindles and slow waves that can be observed in electroencephalogram (EEG) segments of several seconds duration over the transitions between the different sleep stages on a time scale of minutes to the dynamical processes involved in sleep regulation with typical time constants in the range of hours. There is an increasing body of work on mathematical and computational models addressing these different dynamics, however, usually considering only processes on a single time scale. In this paper, we review and present a new analysis of the dynamics of human sleep EEG at the different time scales and relate the findings to recent modelling efforts pointing out both the achievements and remaining challenges.

  16. Off-Policy Reinforcement Learning: Optimal Operational Control for Two-Time-Scale Industrial Processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jinna; Kiumarsi, Bahare; Chai, Tianyou; Lewis, Frank L; Fan, Jialu

    2017-12-01

    Industrial flow lines are composed of unit processes operating on a fast time scale and performance measurements known as operational indices measured at a slower time scale. This paper presents a model-free optimal solution to a class of two time-scale industrial processes using off-policy reinforcement learning (RL). First, the lower-layer unit process control loop with a fast sampling period and the upper-layer operational index dynamics at a slow time scale are modeled. Second, a general optimal operational control problem is formulated to optimally prescribe the set-points for the unit industrial process. Then, a zero-sum game off-policy RL algorithm is developed to find the optimal set-points by using data measured in real-time. Finally, a simulation experiment is employed for an industrial flotation process to show the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  17. GESAMP: Two decades of accomplishments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Windom, H.L

    1991-01-01

    Many of the uses of the oceans by society may lead potentially to the degradation of the marine environment. Human activities on land lead to the inadvertent or deliberate input of contaminants to the oceans which also may result in marine environmental degradation on local, regional or global scales. Potential impacts on the marine environment of human activities on land and the potential conflicts of society's utilization of the oceans require ongoing global evaluation from a multidisciplinary scientific perspective. This has been recognized for some time by the community of United Nations organizations, eight of which jointly sponsor an interdisciplinary groups of scientists to provide independent advice on existing and potential marine pollution problems. This Group of Experts on the Scientific Aspects of Marine Pollution (GESAMP) was formed two decades ago to serve as a mechanism for encouraging coordination, collaboration and harmonization of activities related to marine pollution of common interest to the co-sponsoring bodies. More recently, GESAMP has expanded its programme to include consideration of the impacts of other human activities, such as coastal development, on the marine environment. The purpose of this booklet is to briefly describe what GESAMP is, how it operates and what it accomplishes

  18. REAL-TIME VIDEO SCALING BASED ON CONVOLUTION NEURAL NETWORK ARCHITECTURE

    OpenAIRE

    S Safinaz; A V Ravi Kumar

    2017-01-01

    In recent years, video super resolution techniques becomes mandatory requirements to get high resolution videos. Many super resolution techniques researched but still video super resolution or scaling is a vital challenge. In this paper, we have presented a real-time video scaling based on convolution neural network architecture to eliminate the blurriness in the images and video frames and to provide better reconstruction quality while scaling of large datasets from lower resolution frames t...

  19. Links between ocean properties, ice cover, and plankton dynamics on interannual time scales in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, James M.; Collins, Kate; Prinsenberg, Simon J.

    2013-10-01

    A decade of instrumented mooring data from Barrow Strait in the eastern Canadian Arctic Archipelago reveals connections between sea ice, water characteristics, and zooplankton dynamics on interannual time scales. On the North side of the Strait, the timing of breakup is positively related to the timing of freezeup in the previous year and negatively related to spring water temperature. This suggests that an early freezeup insulates the ocean from a cold autumn atmosphere, allowing heat to be retained until spring when it contributes to early sea ice erosion. There is also a very strong negative association between the timing of freezeup and late summer salinity, suggesting that monitoring of salinity in real time could be used to predict freezeup. A zooplankton biomass index derived from acoustic Doppler current profiler echo intensity data is used to demonstrate that on the North side there are also strong connections between early summer water temperature and the start, length, and productivity of the zooplankton growth season. On the South side of the Strait where currents are stronger, the relationships seen on the North side were not observed. But here integrated zooplankton biomass index and measured currents are used to identify interannual variability in the zooplankton biomass being delivered downstream into Lancaster Sound. Also on the South side, two yearlong records of daily fluorescence profiles reveal a large difference in the phytoplankton biomass being delivered downstream between years and demonstrate a strong relationship between the timing of the spring phytoplankton bloom and that of breakup.

  20. Time scale defined by the fractal structure of the price fluctuations in foreign exchange markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumagai, Yoshiaki

    2010-04-01

    In this contribution, a new time scale named C-fluctuation time is defined by price fluctuations observed at a given resolution. The intraday fractal structures and the relations of the three time scales: real time (physical time), tick time and C-fluctuation time, in foreign exchange markets are analyzed. The data set used is trading prices of foreign exchange rates; US dollar (USD)/Japanese yen (JPY), USD/Euro (EUR), and EUR/JPY. The accuracy of the data is one minute and data within a minute are recorded in order of transaction. The series of instantaneous velocity of C-fluctuation time flowing are exponentially distributed for small C when they are measured by real time and for tiny C when they are measured by tick time. When the market is volatile, for larger C, the series of instantaneous velocity are exponentially distributed.

  1. Data warehousing technologies for large-scale and right-time data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xiufeng, Liu

    heterogeneous sources into a central data warehouse (DW) by Extract-Transform-Load (ETL) at regular time intervals, e.g., monthly, weekly, or daily. But now, it becomes challenging for large-scale data, and hard to meet the near real-time/right-time business decisions. This thesis considers some...

  2. Broadband Structural Dynamics: Understanding the Impulse-Response of Structures Across Multiple Length and Time Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-08-18

    Spectral domain response calculated • Time domain response obtained through inverse transform Approach 4: WASABI Wavelet Analysis of Structural Anomalies...differences at unity scale! Time Function Transform Apply Spectral Domain Transfer Function Time Function Inverse Transform Transform Transform  mtP

  3. Characteristic time scales for diffusion processes through layers and across interfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carr, Elliot J.

    2018-04-01

    This paper presents a simple tool for characterizing the time scale for continuum diffusion processes through layered heterogeneous media. This mathematical problem is motivated by several practical applications such as heat transport in composite materials, flow in layered aquifers, and drug diffusion through the layers of the skin. In such processes, the physical properties of the medium vary across layers and internal boundary conditions apply at the interfaces between adjacent layers. To characterize the time scale, we use the concept of mean action time, which provides the mean time scale at each position in the medium by utilizing the fact that the transition of the transient solution of the underlying partial differential equation model, from initial state to steady state, can be represented as a cumulative distribution function of time. Using this concept, we define the characteristic time scale for a multilayer diffusion process as the maximum value of the mean action time across the layered medium. For given initial conditions and internal and external boundary conditions, this approach leads to simple algebraic expressions for characterizing the time scale that depend on the physical and geometrical properties of the medium, such as the diffusivities and lengths of the layers. Numerical examples demonstrate that these expressions provide useful insight into explaining how the parameters in the model affect the time it takes for a multilayer diffusion process to reach steady state.

  4. Time-scale invariances in preseismic electromagnetic radiation, magnetization and damage evolution of rocks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Kawada

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the time-scale invariant changes in electromagnetic and mechanical energy releases prior to a rock failure or a large earthquake. The energy release processes are caused by damage evolutions such as crack propagation, motion of charged dislocation, area-enlargement of sheared asperities and repetitive creep-rate changes. Damage mechanics can be used to represent the time-scale invariant evolutions of both brittle and plastic damages. Irreversible thermodynamics applied to the damage mechanics reveals that the damage evolution produces the variations in charge, dipole and electromagnetic signals in addition to mechanical energy release, and yields the time-scale invariant patterns of Benioff electromagnetic radiation and cumulative Benioff strain-release. The irreversible thermodynamic framework of damage mechanics is also applicable to the seismo-magnetic effect, and the time-scale invariance is recognized in the remanent magnetization change associated with damage evolution prior to a rock failure.

  5. Multiple time scale analysis of pressure oscillations in solid rocket motors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, Waqas; Maqsood, Adnan; Riaz, Rizwan

    2018-03-01

    In this study, acoustic pressure oscillations for single and coupled longitudinal acoustic modes in Solid Rocket Motor (SRM) are investigated using Multiple Time Scales (MTS) method. Two independent time scales are introduced. The oscillations occur on fast time scale whereas the amplitude and phase changes on slow time scale. Hopf bifurcation is employed to investigate the properties of the solution. The supercritical bifurcation phenomenon is observed for linearly unstable system. The amplitude of the oscillations result from equal energy gain and loss rates of longitudinal acoustic modes. The effect of linear instability and frequency of longitudinal modes on amplitude and phase of oscillations are determined for both single and coupled modes. For both cases, the maximum amplitude of oscillations decreases with the frequency of acoustic mode and linear instability of SRM. The comparison of analytical MTS results and numerical simulations demonstrate an excellent agreement.

  6. OSCILLATION CRITERIA FOR A FOURTH ORDER SUBLINEAR DYNAMIC EQUATION ON TIME SCALE

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    Some new criteria for the oscillation of a fourth order sublinear and/or linear dynamic equation on time scale are established. Our results are new for the corresponding fourth order differential equations as well as difference equations.

  7. Multiple Positive Symmetric Solutions to p-Laplacian Dynamic Equations on Time Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    You-Hui Su

    2009-01-01

    two examples are given to illustrate the main results and their differences. These results are even new for the special cases of continuous and discrete equations, as well as in the general time-scale setting.

  8. Using decadal climate prediction to characterize and manage changing drought and flood risks in Colorado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lazrus, H.; Done, J.; Morss, R. E.

    2017-12-01

    A new branch of climate science, known as decadal prediction, seeks to predict the time-varying trajectory of climate over the next 3-30 years and not just the longer-term trends. Decadal predictions bring climate information into the time horizon of decision makers, particularly those tasked with managing water resources and floods whose master planning is often on the timescale of decades. Information from decadal predictions may help alleviate some aspects of vulnerability by helping to inform decisions that reduce drought and flood exposure and increase adaptive capacities including preparedness, response, and recovery. This presentation will highlight an interdisciplinary project - involving atmospheric and social scientists - on the development of decadal climate information and its use in decision making. The presentation will explore the skill and utility of decadal drought and flood prediction along Colorado's Front Range, an area experiencing rapid population growth and uncertain climate variability and climate change impacts. Innovative statistical and dynamical atmospheric modeling techniques explore the extent to which Colorado precipitation can be predicted on decadal scales using remote Pacific Ocean surface temperature patterns. Concurrently, stakeholder interviews with flood managers in Colorado are being used to explore the potential utility of decadal climate information. Combining the modeling results with results from the stakeholder interviews shows that while there is still significant uncertainty surrounding precipitation on decadal time scales, relevant and well communicated decadal information has potential to be useful for drought and flood management.

  9. Multiple time scales in modeling the incidence of infections acquired in intensive care units

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Wolkewitz

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background When patients are admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU their risk of getting an infection will be highly depend on the length of stay at-risk in the ICU. In addition, risk of infection is likely to vary over calendar time as a result of fluctuations in the prevalence of the pathogen on the ward. Hence risk of infection is expected to depend on two time scales (time in ICU and calendar time as well as competing events (discharge or death and their spatial location. The purpose of this paper is to develop and apply appropriate statistical models for the risk of ICU-acquired infection accounting for multiple time scales, competing risks and the spatial clustering of the data. Methods A multi-center data base from a Spanish surveillance network was used to study the occurrence of an infection due to Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA. The analysis included 84,843 patient admissions between January 2006 and December 2011 from 81 ICUs. Stratified Cox models were used to study multiple time scales while accounting for spatial clustering of the data (patients within ICUs and for death or discharge as competing events for MRSA infection. Results Both time scales, time in ICU and calendar time, are highly associated with the MRSA hazard rate and cumulative risk. When using only one basic time scale, the interpretation and magnitude of several patient-individual risk factors differed. Risk factors concerning the severity of illness were more pronounced when using only calendar time. These differences disappeared when using both time scales simultaneously. Conclusions The time-dependent dynamics of infections is complex and should be studied with models allowing for multiple time scales. For patient individual risk-factors we recommend stratified Cox regression models for competing events with ICU time as the basic time scale and calendar time as a covariate. The inclusion of calendar time and stratification by ICU

  10. Time Scale Inequalities of the Ostrowski Type for Functions Differentiable on the Coordinates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eze R. Nwaeze

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available In 2016, some inequalities of the Ostrowski type for functions (of two variables differentiable on the coordinates were established. In this paper, we extend these results to an arbitrary time scale by means of a parameter λ∈0,1. The aforementioned results are regained for the case when the time scale T=R. Besides extension, our results are employed to the continuous and discrete calculus to get some new inequalities in this direction.

  11. Bounds of Double Integral Dynamic Inequalities in Two Independent Variables on Time Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. H. Saker

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Our aim in this paper is to establish some explicit bounds of the unknown function in a certain class of nonlinear dynamic inequalities in two independent variables on time scales which are unbounded above. These on the one hand generalize and on the other hand furnish a handy tool for the study of qualitative as well as quantitative properties of solutions of partial dynamic equations on time scales. Some examples are considered to demonstrate the applications of the results.

  12. Antipersistent dynamics in short time scale variability of self-potential signals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Ragosta

    2000-06-01

    Full Text Available Time scale properties of self-potential signals are investigated through the analysis of the second order structure function (variogram, a powerful tool to investigate the spatial and temporal variability of observational data. In this work we analyse two sequences of self-potential values measured by means of a geophysical monitoring array located in a seismically active area of Southern Italy. The range of scales investigated goes from a few minutes to several days. It is shown that signal fluctuations are characterised by two time scale ranges in which self-potential variability appears to follow slightly different dynamical behaviours. Results point to the presence of fractal, non stationary features expressing a long term correlation with scaling coefficients which are the clue of stabilising mechanisms. In the scale ranges in which the series show scale invariant behaviour, self-potentials evolve like fractional Brownian motions with anticorrelated increments typical of processes regulated by negative feedback mechanisms (antipersistence. On scales below about 6 h the strength of such an antipersistence appears to be slightly greater than that observed on larger time scales where the fluctuations are less efficiently stabilised.

  13. Impact of sequential disorder on the scaling behavior of airplane boarding time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baek, Yongjoo; Ha, Meesoon; Jeong, Hawoong

    2013-05-01

    Airplane boarding process is an example where disorder properties of the system are relevant to the emergence of universality classes. Based on a simple model, we present a systematic analysis of finite-size effects in boarding time, and propose a comprehensive view of the role of sequential disorder in the scaling behavior of boarding time against the plane size. Using numerical simulations and mathematical arguments, we find how the scaling behavior depends on the number of seat columns and the range of sequential disorder. Our results show that new scaling exponents can arise as disorder is localized to varying extents.

  14. Understanding relationships among ecosystem services across spatial scales and over time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Jiangxiao; Carpenter, Stephen R.; Booth, Eric G.; Motew, Melissa; Zipper, Samuel C.; Kucharik, Christopher J.; Loheide, Steven P., II; Turner, Monica G.

    2018-05-01

    Sustaining ecosystem services (ES), mitigating their tradeoffs and avoiding unfavorable future trajectories are pressing social-environmental challenges that require enhanced understanding of their relationships across scales. Current knowledge of ES relationships is often constrained to one spatial scale or one snapshot in time. In this research, we integrated biophysical modeling with future scenarios to examine changes in relationships among eight ES indicators from 2001–2070 across three spatial scales—grid cell, subwatershed, and watershed. We focused on the Yahara Watershed (Wisconsin) in the Midwestern United States—an exemplar for many urbanizing agricultural landscapes. Relationships among ES indicators changed over time; some relationships exhibited high interannual variations (e.g. drainage vs. food production, nitrate leaching vs. net ecosystem exchange) and even reversed signs over time (e.g. perennial grass production vs. phosphorus yield). Robust patterns were detected for relationships among some regulating services (e.g. soil retention vs. water quality) across three spatial scales, but other relationships lacked simple scaling rules. This was especially true for relationships of food production vs. water quality, and drainage vs. number of days with runoff >10 mm, which differed substantially across spatial scales. Our results also showed that local tradeoffs between food production and water quality do not necessarily scale up, so reducing local tradeoffs may be insufficient to mitigate such tradeoffs at the watershed scale. We further synthesized these cross-scale patterns into a typology of factors that could drive changes in ES relationships across scales: (1) effects of biophysical connections, (2) effects of dominant drivers, (3) combined effects of biophysical linkages and dominant drivers, and (4) artificial scale effects, and concluded with management implications. Our study highlights the importance of taking a dynamic

  15. Putting scales into evolutionary time: the divergence of major scale insect lineages (Hemiptera) predates the radiation of modern angiosperm hosts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vea, Isabelle M.; Grimaldi, David A.

    2016-01-01

    The radiation of flowering plants in the mid-Cretaceous transformed landscapes and is widely believed to have fuelled the radiations of major groups of phytophagous insects. An excellent group to test this assertion is the scale insects (Coccomorpha: Hemiptera), with some 8,000 described Recent species and probably the most diverse fossil record of any phytophagous insect group preserved in amber. We used here a total-evidence approach (by tip-dating) employing 174 morphological characters of 73 Recent and 43 fossil taxa (48 families) and DNA sequences of three gene regions, to obtain divergence time estimates and compare the chronology of the most diverse lineage of scale insects, the neococcoid families, with the timing of the main angiosperm radiation. An estimated origin of the Coccomorpha occurred at the beginning of the Triassic, about 245 Ma [228–273], and of the neococcoids 60 million years later [210–165 Ma]. A total-evidence approach allows the integration of extinct scale insects into a phylogenetic framework, resulting in slightly younger median estimates than analyses using Recent taxa, calibrated with fossil ages only. From these estimates, we hypothesise that most major lineages of coccoids shifted from gymnosperms onto angiosperms when the latter became diverse and abundant in the mid- to Late Cretaceous. PMID:27000526

  16. The role of topography on catchment‐scale water residence time

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGuire, K.J.; McDonnell, Jeffery J.; Weiler, M.; Kendall, C.; McGlynn, B.L.; Welker, J.M.; Seibert, J.

    2005-01-01

    The age, or residence time, of water is a fundamental descriptor of catchment hydrology, revealing information about the storage, flow pathways, and source of water in a single integrated measure. While there has been tremendous recent interest in residence time estimation to characterize watersheds, there are relatively few studies that have quantified residence time at the watershed scale, and fewer still that have extended those results beyond single catchments to larger landscape scales. We examined topographic controls on residence time for seven catchments (0.085–62.4 km2) that represent diverse geologic and geomorphic conditions in the western Cascade Mountains of Oregon. Our primary objective was to determine the dominant physical controls on catchment‐scale water residence time and specifically test the hypothesis that residence time is related to the size of the basin. Residence times were estimated by simple convolution models that described the transfer of precipitation isotopic composition to the stream network. We found that base flow mean residence times for exponential distributions ranged from 0.8 to 3.3 years. Mean residence time showed no correlation to basin area (r2 organization (i.e., topography) rather than basin area controls catchment‐scale transport. Results from this study may provide a framework for describing scale‐invariant transport across climatic and geologic conditions, whereby the internal form and structure of the basin defines the first‐order control on base flow residence time.

  17. A hybrid procedure for MSW generation forecasting at multiple time scales in Xiamen City, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu, Lilai; Gao, Peiqing; Cui, Shenghui; Liu, Chun

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► We propose a hybrid model that combines seasonal SARIMA model and grey system theory. ► The model is robust at multiple time scales with the anticipated accuracy. ► At month-scale, the SARIMA model shows good representation for monthly MSW generation. ► At medium-term time scale, grey relational analysis could yield the MSW generation. ► At long-term time scale, GM (1, 1) provides a basic scenario of MSW generation. - Abstract: Accurate forecasting of municipal solid waste (MSW) generation is crucial and fundamental for the planning, operation and optimization of any MSW management system. Comprehensive information on waste generation for month-scale, medium-term and long-term time scales is especially needed, considering the necessity of MSW management upgrade facing many developing countries. Several existing models are available but of little use in forecasting MSW generation at multiple time scales. The goal of this study is to propose a hybrid model that combines the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and grey system theory to forecast MSW generation at multiple time scales without needing to consider other variables such as demographics and socioeconomic factors. To demonstrate its applicability, a case study of Xiamen City, China was performed. Results show that the model is robust enough to fit and forecast seasonal and annual dynamics of MSW generation at month-scale, medium- and long-term time scales with the desired accuracy. In the month-scale, MSW generation in Xiamen City will peak at 132.2 thousand tonnes in July 2015 – 1.5 times the volume in July 2010. In the medium term, annual MSW generation will increase to 1518.1 thousand tonnes by 2015 at an average growth rate of 10%. In the long term, a large volume of MSW will be output annually and will increase to 2486.3 thousand tonnes by 2020 – 2.5 times the value for 2010. The hybrid model proposed in this paper can enable decision makers to

  18. A hybrid procedure for MSW generation forecasting at multiple time scales in Xiamen City, China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, Lilai, E-mail: llxu@iue.ac.cn [Key Lab of Urban Environment and Health, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 1799 Jimei Road, Xiamen 361021 (China); Xiamen Key Lab of Urban Metabolism, Xiamen 361021 (China); Gao, Peiqing, E-mail: peiqing15@yahoo.com.cn [Xiamen City Appearance and Environmental Sanitation Management Office, 51 Hexiangxi Road, Xiamen 361004 (China); Cui, Shenghui, E-mail: shcui@iue.ac.cn [Key Lab of Urban Environment and Health, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 1799 Jimei Road, Xiamen 361021 (China); Xiamen Key Lab of Urban Metabolism, Xiamen 361021 (China); Liu, Chun, E-mail: xmhwlc@yahoo.com.cn [Xiamen City Appearance and Environmental Sanitation Management Office, 51 Hexiangxi Road, Xiamen 361004 (China)

    2013-06-15

    Highlights: ► We propose a hybrid model that combines seasonal SARIMA model and grey system theory. ► The model is robust at multiple time scales with the anticipated accuracy. ► At month-scale, the SARIMA model shows good representation for monthly MSW generation. ► At medium-term time scale, grey relational analysis could yield the MSW generation. ► At long-term time scale, GM (1, 1) provides a basic scenario of MSW generation. - Abstract: Accurate forecasting of municipal solid waste (MSW) generation is crucial and fundamental for the planning, operation and optimization of any MSW management system. Comprehensive information on waste generation for month-scale, medium-term and long-term time scales is especially needed, considering the necessity of MSW management upgrade facing many developing countries. Several existing models are available but of little use in forecasting MSW generation at multiple time scales. The goal of this study is to propose a hybrid model that combines the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and grey system theory to forecast MSW generation at multiple time scales without needing to consider other variables such as demographics and socioeconomic factors. To demonstrate its applicability, a case study of Xiamen City, China was performed. Results show that the model is robust enough to fit and forecast seasonal and annual dynamics of MSW generation at month-scale, medium- and long-term time scales with the desired accuracy. In the month-scale, MSW generation in Xiamen City will peak at 132.2 thousand tonnes in July 2015 – 1.5 times the volume in July 2010. In the medium term, annual MSW generation will increase to 1518.1 thousand tonnes by 2015 at an average growth rate of 10%. In the long term, a large volume of MSW will be output annually and will increase to 2486.3 thousand tonnes by 2020 – 2.5 times the value for 2010. The hybrid model proposed in this paper can enable decision makers to

  19. Fractional Sobolev’s Spaces on Time Scales via Conformable Fractional Calculus and Their Application to a Fractional Differential Equation on Time Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanning Wang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Using conformable fractional calculus on time scales, we first introduce fractional Sobolev spaces on time scales, characterize them, and define weak conformable fractional derivatives. Second, we prove the equivalence of some norms in the introduced spaces and derive their completeness, reflexivity, uniform convexity, and compactness of some imbeddings, which can be regarded as a novelty item. Then, as an application, we present a recent approach via variational methods and critical point theory to obtain the existence of solutions for a p-Laplacian conformable fractional differential equation boundary value problem on time scale T:  Tα(Tαup-2Tα(u(t=∇F(σ(t,u(σ(t, Δ-a.e.  t∈a,bTκ2, u(a-u(b=0, Tα(u(a-Tα(u(b=0, where Tα(u(t denotes the conformable fractional derivative of u of order α at t, σ is the forward jump operator, a,b∈T,  01, and F:[0,T]T×RN→R. By establishing a proper variational setting, we obtain three existence results. Finally, we present two examples to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the existence results.

  20. The decade of despair

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marples, D.R.

    1996-01-01

    The Chernobyl accident on April 26, 1986, was the world's worst disaster at a civilian nuclear power plant. It is also one of the most widely known and controversial disasters of all time. Wildly exaggerated claims have been made about the accident's impact; equally wild assertions have been made in dismissing its effects. Objective assessments are few. The truth about Chernobyl has been bent from the start - the Soviet Union wanted to protect the reputation of its amibitious nuclear power program, and the nuclear industry everywhere wanted the public to believe that a similar disaster open-quotes could not happen here.close quotes Still, after a decade, it should be possible to view the event without the emotions that have shaped many earlier discussions. In reviewing various aspects of the disaster, the author tries to provide a reasoned discussion of the number of the accident's direct casualties, its longterm health effects, and its meaning to an industry that relies on Soviet-made nuclear power reactors

  1. Decades of nuclear testing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miettinen, J.K.

    1995-01-01

    The United States carried out the world's first nuclear test in 1945. The test marked the beginning of an arms race between the great powers that lasted for decades. Innumerable nuclear test explosions were detonated to test and refine the weapons. The arms race picked up speed in the 1950s and culminated in 1958, when the United States detonated 77 and the Soviet Union 35 nuclear explosions. This was followed by the first pause in nuclear testing, brought about through the efforts of the Pugwash organisation consisting of the world's foremost scientists. Finland, too, received its share of the radioactive fallout coming from atmospheric nuclear explosions. Rain water samples have been studied for radioactivity in Finland since the mid-1950s. The first studies to determine the internal radiation doses caused by radioactive substances in man were conducted in the late 1950s by measuring cesium and strontium contents in grass and in milk. The efficiency of research and radiation monitoring improved in the 1960s, which was also a time when training in the sector developed rapidly. In consequence, when the accident in Chernobyl took place Finland had already gained valuable experience needed for rapid determination of unexpected fallout. (orig.) (3 figs.)

  2. Double Scaling in the Relaxation Time in the β -Fermi-Pasta-Ulam-Tsingou Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lvov, Yuri V.; Onorato, Miguel

    2018-04-01

    We consider the original β -Fermi-Pasta-Ulam-Tsingou system; numerical simulations and theoretical arguments suggest that, for a finite number of masses, a statistical equilibrium state is reached independently of the initial energy of the system. Using ensemble averages over initial conditions characterized by different Fourier random phases, we numerically estimate the time scale of equipartition and we find that for very small nonlinearity it matches the prediction based on exact wave-wave resonant interaction theory. We derive a simple formula for the nonlinear frequency broadening and show that when the phenomenon of overlap of frequencies takes place, a different scaling for the thermalization time scale is observed. Our result supports the idea that the Chirikov overlap criterion identifies a transition region between two different relaxation time scalings.

  3. Decades with four double triodes; Decades a quatre doubles triodes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wahl, R [Commissariat a l' Energie Atomique, Lab. du Fort de Chatillon, Fontenay-aux-Roses (France). Centre d' Etudes Nucleaires

    1952-07-01

    Decades with four double triodes The described decade consists of four double triodes and four crystals germanium; which has the following characteristics: - Attack in negative impulses. - Sensitivity 12 volts {+-} 40 % for signals of 1 {mu}s about. - Time of resolution 2,5 {mu}s. - Voltage 250 v {+-} 40 %. - heating 6,3 v {+-} 40 %. - Tolerance on the values of the elements of installation 10%. (author) [French] La decade decrite comprend quatre doubles triodes et quatre cristaux germanium; elle a les caracteristiques suivantes: - Attaque en impulsions negatives. - Sensiblite 12 volts {+-} 40 % pour des signaux de 1 {mu}s environ. - Temps de resolution 2,5 {mu}s. - Alimentation 250 v {+-} 40 %. - Chauffage 6,3 v {+-} 40 %. - Tolerance sur les valeurs des elements de montage l0 %. (auteur)

  4. The International Lunar Decade Declaration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beldavs, V.; Foing, B.; Bland, D.; Crisafulli, J.

    2015-10-01

    The International Lunar Decade Declaration was discussed at the conference held November 9-13, 2014 in Hawaii "The Next Giant Leap: Leveraging Lunar Assets for Sustainable Pathways to Space" - http://2014giantleap.aerospacehawaii.info/ and accepted by a core group that forms the International Lunar Decade Working Group (ILDWG) that is seeking to make the proposed global event and decade long process a reality. The Declaration will be updated from time to time by members of the ILDWreflecting new knowledge and fresh perspectives that bear on building a global consortium with a mission to progress from lunar exploration to the transformation of the Moon into a wealth gene rating platform for the expansion of humankind into the solar system. When key organizations have endorsed the idea and joined the effort the text of the Declaration will be considered final. An earlier International Lunar Decade proposal was issued at the 8th ICEUM Conference in 2006 in Beijing together with 13 specific initiatives for lunar exploration[1,2,3]. These initiatives have been largely implemented with coordination among the different space agencies involved provided by the International Lunar Exploration Working Group[2,3]. The Second International Lunar Decade from 2015 reflects current trends towards increasing involvement of commercial firms in space, particularly seeking opportunities beyond low Earth orbit. The central vision of the International Lunar Decade is to build the foundations for a sustainable space economy through international collaboration concurrently addressing Lunar exploration and building a shared knowledge base;Policy development that enables collabo rative research and development leading to lunar mining and industrial and commercial development;Infrastructure on the Moon and in cislunar space (communications, transport, energy systems, way-stations, other) that reduces costs, lowers risks and speeds up the time to profitable operations;Enabling technologies

  5. Multi-Scale Entropy Analysis as a Method for Time-Series Analysis of Climate Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heiko Balzter

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Evidence is mounting that the temporal dynamics of the climate system are changing at the same time as the average global temperature is increasing due to multiple climate forcings. A large number of extreme weather events such as prolonged cold spells, heatwaves, droughts and floods have been recorded around the world in the past 10 years. Such changes in the temporal scaling behaviour of climate time-series data can be difficult to detect. While there are easy and direct ways of analysing climate data by calculating the means and variances for different levels of temporal aggregation, these methods can miss more subtle changes in their dynamics. This paper describes multi-scale entropy (MSE analysis as a tool to study climate time-series data and to identify temporal scales of variability and their change over time in climate time-series. MSE estimates the sample entropy of the time-series after coarse-graining at different temporal scales. An application of MSE to Central European, variance-adjusted, mean monthly air temperature anomalies (CRUTEM4v is provided. The results show that the temporal scales of the current climate (1960–2014 are different from the long-term average (1850–1960. For temporal scale factors longer than 12 months, the sample entropy increased markedly compared to the long-term record. Such an increase can be explained by systems theory with greater complexity in the regional temperature data. From 1961 the patterns of monthly air temperatures are less regular at time-scales greater than 12 months than in the earlier time period. This finding suggests that, at these inter-annual time scales, the temperature variability has become less predictable than in the past. It is possible that climate system feedbacks are expressed in altered temporal scales of the European temperature time-series data. A comparison with the variance and Shannon entropy shows that MSE analysis can provide additional information on the

  6. Studying time of flight imaging through scattering media across multiple size scales (Conference Presentation)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velten, Andreas

    2017-05-01

    Light scattering is a primary obstacle to optical imaging in a variety of different environments and across many size and time scales. Scattering complicates imaging on large scales when imaging through the atmosphere when imaging from airborne or space borne platforms, through marine fog, or through fog and dust in vehicle navigation, for example in self driving cars. On smaller scales, scattering is the major obstacle when imaging through human tissue in biomedical applications. Despite the large variety of participating materials and size scales, light transport in all these environments is usually described with very similar scattering models that are defined by the same small set of parameters, including scattering and absorption length and phase function. We attempt a study of scattering and methods of imaging through scattering across different scales and media, particularly with respect to the use of time of flight information. We can show that using time of flight, in addition to spatial information, provides distinct advantages in scattering environments. By performing a comparative study of scattering across scales and media, we are able to suggest scale models for scattering environments to aid lab research. We also can transfer knowledge and methodology between different fields.

  7. Overcoming time scale and finite size limitations to compute nucleation rates from small scale well tempered metadynamics simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salvalaglio, Matteo; Tiwary, Pratyush; Maggioni, Giovanni Maria; Mazzotti, Marco; Parrinello, Michele

    2016-12-01

    Condensation of a liquid droplet from a supersaturated vapour phase is initiated by a prototypical nucleation event. As such it is challenging to compute its rate from atomistic molecular dynamics simulations. In fact at realistic supersaturation conditions condensation occurs on time scales that far exceed what can be reached with conventional molecular dynamics methods. Another known problem in this context is the distortion of the free energy profile associated to nucleation due to the small, finite size of typical simulation boxes. In this work the problem of time scale is addressed with a recently developed enhanced sampling method while contextually correcting for finite size effects. We demonstrate our approach by studying the condensation of argon, and showing that characteristic nucleation times of the order of magnitude of hours can be reliably calculated. Nucleation rates spanning a range of 10 orders of magnitude are computed at moderate supersaturation levels, thus bridging the gap between what standard molecular dynamics simulations can do and real physical systems.

  8. The DECADE performance assessment program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weber, B.V.; Ottinger, P.F.; Commisso, R.J.; Thompson, J.; Rowley, J.E.; Filios, P.; Babineau, M.A.

    1996-01-01

    Previous analyses of DECADE Module 1 experiments indicated significant current loss between the plasma opening switch (POS) and an electron-beam load. A program was initiated to diagnose and improve the power flow to assess the performance of a multi-module DECADE system. Power flow measurements between the POS and load indicate high vacuum flow, distributed current loss and azimuthal asymmetries. A decreased load impedance reduces the fraction of the load current flowing in vacuum. Improved plasma source symmetry reduces losses near the load for long conduction times. Increased POS impedance is required to significantly improve the power coupling to the load. (author). 6 figs., 9 refs

  9. The DECADE performance assessment program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weber, B V; Ottinger, P F; Commisso, R J [Naval Research Lab., Washington, DC (United States). Plasma Physics Div.; Goyer, J R; Kortbawi, D [Physics International Co., Berkeley, CA (United States); Thompson, J [Maxwell Labs., San Diego, CA (United States); Rowley, J E; Filios, P [Defense Nuclear Agency, Alexandria, VA (United States); Babineau, M A [Sverdlup Technology, Tullahoma, TN (United States)

    1997-12-31

    Previous analyses of DECADE Module 1 experiments indicated significant current loss between the plasma opening switch (POS) and an electron-beam load. A program was initiated to diagnose and improve the power flow to assess the performance of a multi-module DECADE system. Power flow measurements between the POS and load indicate high vacuum flow, distributed current loss and azimuthal asymmetries. A decreased load impedance reduces the fraction of the load current flowing in vacuum. Improved plasma source symmetry reduces losses near the load for long conduction times. Increased POS impedance is required to significantly improve the power coupling to the load. (author). 6 figs., 9 refs.

  10. Marine mammal distribution in the open ocean: a comparison of ocean color data products and levant time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohern, J.

    2016-02-01

    Marine mammals are generally located in areas of enhanced surface primary productivity, though they may forage much deeper within the water column and higher on the food chain. Numerous studies over the past several decades have utilized ocean color data from remote sensing instruments (CZCS, MODIS, and others) to asses both the quantity and time scales over which surface primary productivity relates to marine mammal distribution. In areas of sustained upwelling, primary productivity may essentially grow in the secondary levels of productivity (the zooplankton and nektonic species on which marine mammals forage). However, in many open ocean habitats a simple trophic cascade does not explain relatively short time lags between enhanced surface productivity and marine mammal presence. Other dynamic features that entrain prey or attract marine mammals may be responsible for the correlations between marine mammals and ocean color. In order to investigate these features, two MODIS (moderate imaging spectroradiometer) data products, the concentration as well as the standard deviation of surface chlorophyll were used in conjunction with marine mammal sightings collected within Ecuadorian waters. Time lags between enhanced surface chlorophyll and marine mammal presence were on the order of 2-4 weeks, however correlations were much stronger when the standard deviation of spatially binned images was used, rather than the chlorophyll concentrations. Time lags also varied between Balaenopterid and Odontocete cetaceans. Overall, the standard deviation of surface chlorophyll proved a useful tool for assessing potential relationships between marine mammal sightings and surface chlorophyll.

  11. Urban Freight Management with Stochastic Time-Dependent Travel Times and Application to Large-Scale Transportation Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shichao Sun

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper addressed the vehicle routing problem (VRP in large-scale urban transportation networks with stochastic time-dependent (STD travel times. The subproblem which is how to find the optimal path connecting any pair of customer nodes in a STD network was solved through a robust approach without requiring the probability distributions of link travel times. Based on that, the proposed STD-VRP model can be converted into solving a normal time-dependent VRP (TD-VRP, and algorithms for such TD-VRPs can also be introduced to obtain the solution. Numerical experiments were conducted to address STD-VRPTW of practical sizes on a real world urban network, demonstrated here on the road network of Shenzhen, China. The stochastic time-dependent link travel times of the network were calibrated by historical floating car data. A route construction algorithm was applied to solve the STD problem in 4 delivery scenarios efficiently. The computational results showed that the proposed STD-VRPTW model can improve the level of customer service by satisfying the time-window constraint under any circumstances. The improvement can be very significant especially for large-scale network delivery tasks with no more increase in cost and environmental impacts.

  12. Mountain erosion over 10 yr, 10 k.y., and 10 m.y. time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    James W. Kirchner; Robert C. Finkel; Clifford S. Riebe; Darryl E. Granger; James L. Clayton; John G. King; Walter F. Megahan

    2001-01-01

    We used cosmogenic 10Be to measure erosion rates over 10 k.y. time scales at 32 Idaho mountain catchments, ranging from small experimental watersheds (0.2 km2) to large river basins (35 000 km2). These long-term sediment yields are, on average, 17 times higher than stream sediment fluxes measured over...

  13. Multi-time, multi-scale correlation functions in turbulence and in turbulent models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Biferale, L.; Boffetta, G.; Celani, A.; Toschi, F.

    1999-01-01

    A multifractal-like representation for multi-time, multi-scale velocity correlation in turbulence and dynamical turbulent models is proposed. The importance of subleading contributions to time correlations is highlighted. The fulfillment of the dynamical constraints due to the equations of motion is

  14. Mixing and flushing time scales in the Azhikode Estuary, southwest coast of India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Revichandran, C.; Pylee, A.

    Flushing time scales of the Azhikode Estuary, Kerala, India showed pronounced dry season and wet season signals as well as large inter-annual variation. Cumulative flushing time of the estuary varies from 4.8 tide cycles in April to 1.22 tide cycles...

  15. Time Scale Analysis of Interest Rate Spreads and Output Using Wavelets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Gallegati

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper adds to the literature on the information content of different spreads for real activity by explicitly taking into account the time scale relationship between a variety of monetary and financial indicators (real interest rate, term and credit spreads and output growth. By means of wavelet-based exploratory data analysis we obtain richer results relative to the aggregate analysis by identifying the dominant scales of variation in the data and the scales and location at which structural breaks have occurred. Moreover, using the “double residuals” regression analysis on a scale-by-scale basis, we find that changes in the spread in several markets have different information content for output at different time frames. This is consistent with the idea that allowing for different time scales of variation in the data can provide a fruitful understanding of the complex dynamics of economic relationships between variables with non-stationary or transient components, certainly richer than those obtained using standard time domain methods.

  16. Projective synchronization of time-varying delayed neural network with adaptive scaling factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghosh, Dibakar; Banerjee, Santo

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Projective synchronization in coupled delayed neural chaotic systems with modulated delay time is introduced. • An adaptive rule for the scaling factors is introduced. • This scheme is highly applicable in secure communication. -- Abstract: In this work, the projective synchronization between two continuous time delayed neural systems with time varying delay is investigated. A sufficient condition for synchronization for the coupled systems with modulated delay is presented analytically with the help of the Krasovskii–Lyapunov approach. The effect of adaptive scaling factors on synchronization are also studied in details. Numerical simulations verify the effectiveness of the analytic results

  17. Time scales of the stick–slip dynamics of the peeling of an adhesive tape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, Nachiketa; Parida, Nigam Chandra; Raha, Soumyendu

    2015-01-01

    The stick–slip dynamics of the peeling of an adhesive tape is characterized by bifurcations that have been experimentally well studied. In this work, we investigate the time scale in which the the stick–slips happen leading to the bifurcations. This is fundamental to understanding the triboluminescence and acoustic emissions associated with the bifurcations. We establish a relationship between the time scale of the bifurcations and the inherent mathematical structure of the peeling dynamics by studying a characteristic time quantity associated with the dynamics. PMID:25663802

  18. DECADE design and testing status

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sincerny, P.; Childers, K.; Goyer, J.; Kortbawi, D.; Roth, I.; Stallings, C.; Dempsey, J.; Schlitt, L.

    1996-01-01

    DECADE is a very high power generator that will be built at Arnold Engineering Development Center in Tullahoma, Tennessee, by the Defense Special Weapons Agency. The full facility consists of 16 modules. Two full power modules (DM1 and DM2) have been built to verify the DECADE design at Physics International. Each module consists of a 570 kJ Marx generator that pulse charges a water transfer capacitor. The transfer capacitor discharges into a water output line through an array of 6 parallel triggered gas switches. The water output line then pulse charges the inductive store/opening switch pulse compression stage. When the opening switch opens, the inductive store discharges into an electron beam bremsstrahlung diode load. The initial testing of the DM1 module has been completed. The electrical design of the module will be presented, including circuit modeling results. The test data from a module will be compared to the modeling results. This test data, including reproducibility and timing accuracy, was used to predict the output from the full system of 16 modules and a subset of 4 unit modules (DECADE Quad). One option under consideration is to deploy a DECADE Quad at the testing center in Tennessee prior to the full 16 module system. The design sketch of the DECADE Quad and the predicted output based on the modeling and the demonstrated module performance is given. (author). 11 figs., 11 refs

  19. DECADE design and testing status

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sincerny, P; Childers, K; Goyer, J; Kortbawi, D; Roth, I; Stallings, C; Dempsey, J [Physics International Company, San Leandro, CA (United States); Schlitt, L [Leland Schlitt Consulting Services, Livermore, CA (United States)

    1997-12-31

    DECADE is a very high power generator that will be built at Arnold Engineering Development Center in Tullahoma, Tennessee, by the Defense Special Weapons Agency. The full facility consists of 16 modules. Two full power modules (DM1 and DM2) have been built to verify the DECADE design at Physics International. Each module consists of a 570 kJ Marx generator that pulse charges a water transfer capacitor. The transfer capacitor discharges into a water output line through an array of 6 parallel triggered gas switches. The water output line then pulse charges the inductive store/opening switch pulse compression stage. When the opening switch opens, the inductive store discharges into an electron beam bremsstrahlung diode load. The initial testing of the DM1 module has been completed. The electrical design of the module will be presented, including circuit modeling results. The test data from a module will be compared to the modeling results. This test data, including reproducibility and timing accuracy, was used to predict the output from the full system of 16 modules and a subset of 4 unit modules (DECADE Quad). One option under consideration is to deploy a DECADE Quad at the testing center in Tennessee prior to the full 16 module system. The design sketch of the DECADE Quad and the predicted output based on the modeling and the demonstrated module performance is given. (author). 11 figs., 11 refs.

  20. A hybrid procedure for MSW generation forecasting at multiple time scales in Xiamen City, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Lilai; Gao, Peiqing; Cui, Shenghui; Liu, Chun

    2013-06-01

    Accurate forecasting of municipal solid waste (MSW) generation is crucial and fundamental for the planning, operation and optimization of any MSW management system. Comprehensive information on waste generation for month-scale, medium-term and long-term time scales is especially needed, considering the necessity of MSW management upgrade facing many developing countries. Several existing models are available but of little use in forecasting MSW generation at multiple time scales. The goal of this study is to propose a hybrid model that combines the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and grey system theory to forecast MSW generation at multiple time scales without needing to consider other variables such as demographics and socioeconomic factors. To demonstrate its applicability, a case study of Xiamen City, China was performed. Results show that the model is robust enough to fit and forecast seasonal and annual dynamics of MSW generation at month-scale, medium- and long-term time scales with the desired accuracy. In the month-scale, MSW generation in Xiamen City will peak at 132.2 thousand tonnes in July 2015 - 1.5 times the volume in July 2010. In the medium term, annual MSW generation will increase to 1518.1 thousand tonnes by 2015 at an average growth rate of 10%. In the long term, a large volume of MSW will be output annually and will increase to 2486.3 thousand tonnes by 2020 - 2.5 times the value for 2010. The hybrid model proposed in this paper can enable decision makers to develop integrated policies and measures for waste management over the long term. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Evidence of increasing sedentarism in Mexico City during the last decade: Sitting time prevalence, trends, and associations with obesity and diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medina, Catalina; Tolentino-Mayo, Lizbeth; López-Ridaura, Ruy; Barquera, Simón

    2017-01-01

    Sedentary behaviors such as sitting time are associated with obesity and diabetes independently of total reported physical activity. This study aimed to describe the current sitting time/day prevalence and trends and to examine the association of sitting time with sociodemographic and clinical variables in Mexico City. Two cross-sectional representative surveys in Mexico City were used for this analysis (2006: n = 1148 and 2015: n = 1329). Sedentary behavior questions from the International Physical Activity Questionnaire included time spent sitting on a weekday in the last week or on a Wednesday. Sitting time /day was divided into deciles, and participants in the highest decile (≥ 420 minutes/day) were classified within the high sitting category; others were classified in the low sitting time category. Multivariate logistic regression was used to evaluate the associations of sitting time with sociodemographic and clinical indicators, controlling for confounders and testing for potential interactions. A total of 13.7% (2006) and 14.8% (2015) adults were classified in the highest sitting time category (≥ 420 minutes/day). There was a significant increase in the average sitting time/day between the surveys (216.0 minutes in 2006 vs. 233.3 minutes in 2015, p obesity (OR = 2.37, 95% CI: 1.11, 5.09) and those with high glucose levels (survey finding) (OR = 2.34, 95% CI: 1.04, 5.25) were more likely to report sitting time in the highest category. Sitting time/day prevalence increased 8%, and average daily sitting minutes significantly increased by 8.2% (18 minutes) in the nine-year study period (2006-2015). Current public health policies should consider strategies not only for increasing physical activity levels, but also for reducing sitting time/day among the population as a measure to fight the growing epidemic of obesity and diabetes in Mexico.

  2. Parent-child associations for changes in diet, screen time, and physical activity across two decades in modernizing China: China Health and Nutrition Survey 1991-2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Fei; Howard, Annie Green; Herring, Amy H; Thompson, Amanda L; Adair, Linda S; Popkin, Barry M; Aiello, Allison E; Zhang, Bing; Gordon-Larsen, Penny

    2016-11-11

    While the household context is important for lifestyle behavior interventions, few studies have examined parent-child associations for diet and physical activity (PA) changes over time in a rapidly urbanizing country. We aimed to investigate changes in diet, screen time, and PA behaviors over time in children and their parents living in the same household, and examine the parent-child association for these behaviors. We studied dietary, screen time, and PA behaviors in 5,201 parent-child pairs (children aged 7-17y) using longitudinal data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (1991, 1993, 1997, 2000, 2004, 2006, and 2009). We collected three-day 24-h recall diet data to generate percentages of energy from animal-source foods, away-from-home eating, and snacking from 1991-2009, which are known urbanization-related behaviors. We used a seven-day PA recall to collect screen time (hours/week) and leisure-time sports participation (yes/no) since 2004. We examined the changes in children's and parents' behaviors over time using random-effects negative binomial regression for diet and screen time, and random-effects logistic regression for leisure-time sports. We then regressed each of the behaviors of offspring on each of their parents' same behaviors to examine the parent-child association, using the same set of models. We observed increases in energy from animal-source foods, eating away-from-home, and snacking, as well as screen time and leisure-time sports in parents and children over time, with different rates of change between children and their parents for some behaviors. We found positive parent-child associations for diet, screen time, and PA. When parental intakes increased by 10 % energy from each dietary behavior, children's increase in intakes ranged from 0.44 to 1.59 % total energy for animal-source foods, 0.17 % to 0.45 % for away-from-home eating, and 2.13 % to 7.21 % for snacking. Children were also more likely to participate in leisure-time

  3. A multiple-time-scale approach to the control of ITBs on JET

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laborde, L.; Mazon, D.; Moreau, D. [EURATOM-CEA Association (DSM-DRFC), CEA Cadarache, 13 - Saint Paul lez Durance (France); Moreau, D. [Culham Science Centre, EFDA-JET, Abingdon, OX (United Kingdom); Ariola, M. [EURATOM/ENEA/CREATE Association, Univ. Napoli Federico II, Napoli (Italy); Cordoliani, V. [Ecole Polytechnique, 91 - Palaiseau (France); Tala, T. [EURATOM-Tekes Association, VTT Processes (Finland)

    2005-07-01

    The simultaneous real-time control of the current and temperature gradient profiles could lead to the steady state sustainment of an internal transport barrier (ITB) and so to a stationary optimized plasma regime. Recent experiments in JET have demonstrated significant progress in achieving such a control: different current and temperature gradient target profiles have been reached and sustained for several seconds using a controller based on a static linear model. It's worth noting that the inverse safety factor profile evolves on a slow time scale (resistive time) while the normalized electron temperature gradient reacts on a faster one (confinement time). Moreover these experiments have shown that the controller was sensitive to rapid plasma events such as transient ITBs during the safety factor profile evolution or MHD instabilities which modify the pressure profiles on the confinement time scale. In order to take into account the different dynamics of the controlled profiles and to better react to rapid plasma events the control technique is being improved by using a multiple-time-scale approximation. The paper describes the theoretical analysis and closed-loop simulations using a control algorithm based on two-time-scale state-space model. These closed-loop simulations using the full dynamic but linear model used for the controller design to simulate the plasma response have demonstrated that this new controller allows the normalized electron temperature gradient target profile to be reached faster than the one used in previous experiments. (A.C.)

  4. A multiple-time-scale approach to the control of ITBs on JET

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laborde, L.; Mazon, D.; Moreau, D.; Moreau, D.; Ariola, M.; Cordoliani, V.; Tala, T.

    2005-01-01

    The simultaneous real-time control of the current and temperature gradient profiles could lead to the steady state sustainment of an internal transport barrier (ITB) and so to a stationary optimized plasma regime. Recent experiments in JET have demonstrated significant progress in achieving such a control: different current and temperature gradient target profiles have been reached and sustained for several seconds using a controller based on a static linear model. It's worth noting that the inverse safety factor profile evolves on a slow time scale (resistive time) while the normalized electron temperature gradient reacts on a faster one (confinement time). Moreover these experiments have shown that the controller was sensitive to rapid plasma events such as transient ITBs during the safety factor profile evolution or MHD instabilities which modify the pressure profiles on the confinement time scale. In order to take into account the different dynamics of the controlled profiles and to better react to rapid plasma events the control technique is being improved by using a multiple-time-scale approximation. The paper describes the theoretical analysis and closed-loop simulations using a control algorithm based on two-time-scale state-space model. These closed-loop simulations using the full dynamic but linear model used for the controller design to simulate the plasma response have demonstrated that this new controller allows the normalized electron temperature gradient target profile to be reached faster than the one used in previous experiments. (A.C.)

  5. Scaling of the first-passage time of biased diffusion on hierarchical comb structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin Zhifang; Tao Ruibao.

    1989-12-01

    Biased diffusion on hierarchical comb structures is studied within an exact renormalization group scheme. The scaling exponents of the moments of the first-passage time for random walks are obtained. It is found that the scaling properties of the diffusion depend only on the direction of bias. In this particular case, the presence of bias may give rise to a new multifractality. (author). 7 refs, 2 figs

  6. Antipersistent dynamics in short time scale variability of self-potential signals

    OpenAIRE

    Cuomo, V.; Lanfredi, M.; Lapenna, V.; Macchiato, M.; Ragosta, M.; Telesca, L.

    2000-01-01

    Time scale properties of self-potential signals are investigated through the analysis of the second order structure function (variogram), a powerful tool to investigate the spatial and temporal variability of observational data. In this work we analyse two sequences of self-potential values measured by means of a geophysical monitoring array located in a seismically active area of Southern Italy. The range of scales investigated goes from a few minutes to several days. It is shown that signal...

  7. Timing of millennial-scale climate change in Antarctica and Greenland during the last glacial period

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blunier, T; Brook, E J

    2001-01-01

    A precise relative chronology for Greenland and West Antarctic paleotemperature is extended to 90,000 years ago, based on correlation of atmospheric methane records from the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 and Byrd ice cores. Over this period, the onset of seven major millennial-scale warmings in A....... This pattern provides further evidence for the operation of a "bipolar see-saw" in air temperatures and an oceanic teleconnection between the hemispheres on millennial time scales....

  8. Methods for assessment of climate variability and climate changes in different time-space scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lobanov, V.; Lobanova, H.

    2004-01-01

    Main problem of hydrology and design support for water projects connects with modern climate change and its impact on hydrological characteristics as observed as well as designed. There are three main stages of this problem: - how to extract a climate variability and climate change from complex hydrological records; - how to assess the contribution of climate change and its significance for the point and area; - how to use the detected climate change for computation of design hydrological characteristics. Design hydrological characteristic is the main generalized information, which is used for water management and design support. First step of a research is a choice of hydrological characteristic, which can be as a traditional one (annual runoff for assessment of water resources, maxima, minima runoff, etc) as well as a new one, which characterizes an intra-annual function or intra-annual runoff distribution. For this aim a linear model has been developed which has two coefficients connected with an amplitude and level (initial conditions) of seasonal function and one parameter, which characterizes an intensity of synoptic and macro-synoptic fluctuations inside a year. Effective statistical methods have been developed for a separation of climate variability and climate change and extraction of homogeneous components of three time scales from observed long-term time series: intra annual, decadal and centural. The first two are connected with climate variability and the last (centural) with climate change. Efficiency of new methods of decomposition and smoothing has been estimated by stochastic modeling and well as on the synthetic examples. For an assessment of contribution and statistical significance of modern climate change components statistical criteria and methods have been used. Next step has been connected with a generalization of the results of detected climate changes over the area and spatial modeling. For determination of homogeneous region with the same

  9. An alcator-like confinement time scaling law derived from buckingham's PI theorem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roth, J.R.

    1983-01-01

    The unsatisfactory state of understanding of particle transport and confinement in tokamaks is well known. The best available theory, neoclassical transport, predicts a confinement time which scales as the square of the magnetic field, and inversely as the number density. Until recently, the best available phenomenological scaling law was the Alcator scaling law. This scaling law has recently been supplanted by the neoAlcator scaling law. Both of these expressions are unsatisfactory, because they not only are unsupported by any physical theory, but also their numerical constants are dimensional, suggesting that additional physical parameters need to be accounted for. A more firmly based scaling law can be derived from Buckingham's pi theorem. We adopt the particle confinement time as the dependent variable (derived dimension), and as independent variables (fundamental dimensions) we use the plasma volume, the average ion charge density, the ion current on the limiter, and the magnetic induction. From Buckingham's pi theorem, we obtain an equation which correctly predicts the absence of magnetic induction dependence, and the direct dependence on the ion density. The dependence on the product of the major radius and the plasma radius is intermediate between the original and neoAlcator scaling laws, and may be consistent with the data if the ion kinetic temperature and limiter area were accounted for

  10. Theoretical restrictions on longest implicit time scales in Markov state models of biomolecular dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinitskiy, Anton V.; Pande, Vijay S.

    2018-01-01

    Markov state models (MSMs) have been widely used to analyze computer simulations of various biomolecular systems. They can capture conformational transitions much slower than an average or maximal length of a single molecular dynamics (MD) trajectory from the set of trajectories used to build the MSM. A rule of thumb claiming that the slowest implicit time scale captured by an MSM should be comparable by the order of magnitude to the aggregate duration of all MD trajectories used to build this MSM has been known in the field. However, this rule has never been formally proved. In this work, we present analytical results for the slowest time scale in several types of MSMs, supporting the above rule. We conclude that the slowest implicit time scale equals the product of the aggregate sampling and four factors that quantify: (1) how much statistics on the conformational transitions corresponding to the longest implicit time scale is available, (2) how good the sampling of the destination Markov state is, (3) the gain in statistics from using a sliding window for counting transitions between Markov states, and (4) a bias in the estimate of the implicit time scale arising from finite sampling of the conformational transitions. We demonstrate that in many practically important cases all these four factors are on the order of unity, and we analyze possible scenarios that could lead to their significant deviation from unity. Overall, we provide for the first time analytical results on the slowest time scales captured by MSMs. These results can guide further practical applications of MSMs to biomolecular dynamics and allow for higher computational efficiency of simulations.

  11. Evidence of increasing sedentarism in Mexico City during the last decade: Sitting time prevalence, trends, and associations with obesity and diabetes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catalina Medina

    Full Text Available Sedentary behaviors such as sitting time are associated with obesity and diabetes independently of total reported physical activity. This study aimed to describe the current sitting time/day prevalence and trends and to examine the association of sitting time with sociodemographic and clinical variables in Mexico City.Two cross-sectional representative surveys in Mexico City were used for this analysis (2006: n = 1148 and 2015: n = 1329. Sedentary behavior questions from the International Physical Activity Questionnaire included time spent sitting on a weekday in the last week or on a Wednesday. Sitting time /day was divided into deciles, and participants in the highest decile (≥ 420 minutes/day were classified within the high sitting category; others were classified in the low sitting time category. Multivariate logistic regression was used to evaluate the associations of sitting time with sociodemographic and clinical indicators, controlling for confounders and testing for potential interactions.A total of 13.7% (2006 and 14.8% (2015 adults were classified in the highest sitting time category (≥ 420 minutes/day. There was a significant increase in the average sitting time/day between the surveys (216.0 minutes in 2006 vs. 233.3 minutes in 2015, p < 0.001. In 2015, men, those aged 20-49 years, those in low-intensity jobs, students, and those with a high socioeconomic level were more likely to be in the highest sitting time category. Participants with overweight/obesity (OR = 2.37, 95% CI: 1.11, 5.09 and those with high glucose levels (survey finding (OR = 2.34, 95% CI: 1.04, 5.25 were more likely to report sitting time in the highest category.Sitting time/day prevalence increased 8%, and average daily sitting minutes significantly increased by 8.2% (18 minutes in the nine-year study period (2006-2015. Current public health policies should consider strategies not only for increasing physical activity levels, but also for reducing sitting

  12. High-resolution time-frequency representation of EEG data using multi-scale wavelets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yang; Cui, Wei-Gang; Luo, Mei-Lin; Li, Ke; Wang, Lina

    2017-09-01

    An efficient time-varying autoregressive (TVAR) modelling scheme that expands the time-varying parameters onto the multi-scale wavelet basis functions is presented for modelling nonstationary signals and with applications to time-frequency analysis (TFA) of electroencephalogram (EEG) signals. In the new parametric modelling framework, the time-dependent parameters of the TVAR model are locally represented by using a novel multi-scale wavelet decomposition scheme, which can allow the capability to capture the smooth trends as well as track the abrupt changes of time-varying parameters simultaneously. A forward orthogonal least square (FOLS) algorithm aided by mutual information criteria are then applied for sparse model term selection and parameter estimation. Two simulation examples illustrate that the performance of the proposed multi-scale wavelet basis functions outperforms the only single-scale wavelet basis functions or Kalman filter algorithm for many nonstationary processes. Furthermore, an application of the proposed method to a real EEG signal demonstrates the new approach can provide highly time-dependent spectral resolution capability.

  13. Analysis of passive scalar advection in parallel shear flows: Sorting of modes at intermediate time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camassa, Roberto; McLaughlin, Richard M.; Viotti, Claudio

    2010-11-01

    The time evolution of a passive scalar advected by parallel shear flows is studied for a class of rapidly varying initial data. Such situations are of practical importance in a wide range of applications from microfluidics to geophysics. In these contexts, it is well-known that the long-time evolution of the tracer concentration is governed by Taylor's asymptotic theory of dispersion. In contrast, we focus here on the evolution of the tracer at intermediate time scales. We show how intermediate regimes can be identified before Taylor's, and in particular, how the Taylor regime can be delayed indefinitely by properly manufactured initial data. A complete characterization of the sorting of these time scales and their associated spatial structures is presented. These analytical predictions are compared with highly resolved numerical simulations. Specifically, this comparison is carried out for the case of periodic variations in the streamwise direction on the short scale with envelope modulations on the long scales, and show how this structure can lead to "anomalously" diffusive transients in the evolution of the scalar onto the ultimate regime governed by Taylor dispersion. Mathematically, the occurrence of these transients can be viewed as a competition in the asymptotic dominance between large Péclet (Pe) numbers and the long/short scale aspect ratios (LVel/LTracer≡k), two independent nondimensional parameters of the problem. We provide analytical predictions of the associated time scales by a modal analysis of the eigenvalue problem arising in the separation of variables of the governing advection-diffusion equation. The anomalous time scale in the asymptotic limit of large k Pe is derived for the short scale periodic structure of the scalar's initial data, for both exactly solvable cases and in general with WKBJ analysis. In particular, the exactly solvable sawtooth flow is especially important in that it provides a short cut to the exact solution to the

  14. New time scale based k-epsilon model for near-wall turbulence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Z.; Shih, T. H.

    1993-01-01

    A k-epsilon model is proposed for wall bonded turbulent flows. In this model, the eddy viscosity is characterized by a turbulent velocity scale and a turbulent time scale. The time scale is bounded from below by the Kolmogorov time scale. The dissipation equation is reformulated using this time scale and no singularity exists at the wall. The damping function used in the eddy viscosity is chosen to be a function of R(sub y) = (k(sup 1/2)y)/v instead of y(+). Hence, the model could be used for flows with separation. The model constants used are the same as in the high Reynolds number standard k-epsilon model. Thus, the proposed model will be also suitable for flows far from the wall. Turbulent channel flows at different Reynolds numbers and turbulent boundary layer flows with and without pressure gradient are calculated. Results show that the model predictions are in good agreement with direct numerical simulation and experimental data.

  15. Scale-invariant Green-Kubo relation for time-averaged diffusivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Philipp; Barkai, Eli; Kantz, Holger

    2017-12-01

    In recent years it was shown both theoretically and experimentally that in certain systems exhibiting anomalous diffusion the time- and ensemble-averaged mean-squared displacement are remarkably different. The ensemble-averaged diffusivity is obtained from a scaling Green-Kubo relation, which connects the scale-invariant nonstationary velocity correlation function with the transport coefficient. Here we obtain the relation between time-averaged diffusivity, usually recorded in single-particle tracking experiments, and the underlying scale-invariant velocity correlation function. The time-averaged mean-squared displacement is given by 〈δ2¯〉 ˜2 DνtβΔν -β , where t is the total measurement time and Δ is the lag time. Here ν is the anomalous diffusion exponent obtained from ensemble-averaged measurements 〈x2〉 ˜tν , while β ≥-1 marks the growth or decline of the kinetic energy 〈v2〉 ˜tβ . Thus, we establish a connection between exponents that can be read off the asymptotic properties of the velocity correlation function and similarly for the transport constant Dν. We demonstrate our results with nonstationary scale-invariant stochastic and deterministic models, thereby highlighting that systems with equivalent behavior in the ensemble average can differ strongly in their time average. If the averaged kinetic energy is finite, β =0 , the time scaling of 〈δ2¯〉 and 〈x2〉 are identical; however, the time-averaged transport coefficient Dν is not identical to the corresponding ensemble-averaged diffusion constant.

  16. Computational Fluid Dynamics Study on the Effects of RATO Timing on the Scale Model Acoustic Test

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nielsen, Tanner; Williams, B.; West, Jeff

    2015-01-01

    The Scale Model Acoustic Test (SMAT) is a 5% scale test of the Space Launch System (SLS), which is currently being designed at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). The purpose of this test is to characterize and understand a variety of acoustic phenomena that occur during the early portions of lift off, one being the overpressure environment that develops shortly after booster ignition. The SLS lift off configuration consists of four RS-25 liquid thrusters on the core stage, with two solid boosters connected to each side. Past experience with scale model testing at MSFC (in ER42), has shown that there is a delay in the ignition of the Rocket Assisted Take Off (RATO) motor, which is used as the 5% scale analog of the solid boosters, after the signal to ignite is given. This delay can range from 0 to 16.5ms. While this small of a delay maybe insignificant in the case of the full scale SLS, it can significantly alter the data obtained during the SMAT due to the much smaller geometry. The speed of sound of the air and combustion gas constituents is not scaled, and therefore the SMAT pressure waves propagate at approximately the same speed as occurs during full scale. However, the SMAT geometry is much smaller allowing the pressure waves to move down the exhaust duct, through the trench, and impact the vehicle model much faster than occurs at full scale. To better understand the effect of the RATO timing simultaneity on the SMAT IOP test data, a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis was performed using the Loci/CHEM CFD software program. Five different timing offsets, based on RATO ignition delay statistics, were simulated. A variety of results and comparisons will be given, assessing the overall effect of RATO timing simultaneity on the SMAT overpressure environment.

  17. Time scales of magma transport and mixing at Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai’i

    OpenAIRE

    Rae, Auriol S.P.; Edmonds, Marie; Maclennan, John; Morgan, Daniel; Houghton, Bruce; Hartley, Margaret E.; Sides, Isobel

    2016-01-01

    Modeling of volcanic processes is limited by a lack of knowledge of the time scales of storage, mixing, and final ascent of magmas into the shallowest portions of volcanic plumbing systems immediately prior to eruption. It is impossible to measure these time scales directly; however, micro-analytical techniques provide indirect estimates based on the extent of diffusion of species through melts and crystals. We use diffusion in olivine phenocrysts from the A.D. 1959 Kīlauea Iki (Hawai‘i, USA)...

  18. Doubly stochastic Poisson process models for precipitation at fine time-scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramesh, Nadarajah I.; Onof, Christian; Xie, Dichao

    2012-09-01

    This paper considers a class of stochastic point process models, based on doubly stochastic Poisson processes, in the modelling of rainfall. We examine the application of this class of models, a neglected alternative to the widely-known Poisson cluster models, in the analysis of fine time-scale rainfall intensity. These models are mainly used to analyse tipping-bucket raingauge data from a single site but an extension to multiple sites is illustrated which reveals the potential of this class of models to study the temporal and spatial variability of precipitation at fine time-scales.

  19. Time scale of scour around a pile in combined waves and current

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Thor Ugelvig; Sumer, B. Mutlu; Fredsøe, Jørgen

    The time scale of the scour process around a circular vertical pile is studied in combined waves and current. A series of tests were carried out in a flume with pile diameters 40 mm and 75 mm, in both steady current, waves and combined waves and current. In the combined wave and current flow regime...... the waves and the current were co-directional. All the tests were conducted in the live bed regime. The time scale of scour in combined waves and current is governed by three parameters, namely the current-velocity-to-wave-velocity ratio (Ucw), the Keulegan–Carpenter number (KC) and Shields parameter (Θw...

  20. Rapid-mixing studies on the time-scale of radiation damage in cells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adams, G.E.; Michael, B.D.; Asquith, J.C.; Shenoy, M.A.; Watts, M.E.; Whillans, D.W.

    1975-01-01

    Rapid mixing studies were performed to determine the time scale of radiation damage in cells. There is evidence that the sensitizing effects of oxygen and other chemical dose-modifying agents on the response of cells to ionizing radiation involve fast free-radical processes. Fast response technique studies in bacterial systems have shown that extremely fast processes occur when the bacteria are exposed to oxygen or other dose-modifying agents during irradiation. The time scales observed were consistent with the involvement of fast free-radical reactions in the expression of these effects

  1. New Bounds of Ostrowski–Gruss Type Inequality for (k + 1 Points on Time Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eze R. Nwaeze

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to present three new bounds of the Ostrowski--Gr\\"uss type inequality for points $x_0,x_1,x_2,\\cdots,x_k$ on time scales. Our results generalize result of Ng\\^o and Liu, and extend results of Ujevi\\'c to time scales with $(k+1$ points. We apply our results to the continuous, discrete, and quantum calculus to obtain many new interesting inequalities. An example is also considered. The estimates obtained in this paper will be very useful in numerical integration especially for the continuous case.

  2. Time-dependent approach to collisional ionization using exterior complex scaling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McCurdy, C. William; Horner, Daniel A.; Rescigno, Thomas N.

    2002-01-01

    We present a time-dependent formulation of the exterior complex scaling method that has previously been used to treat electron-impact ionization of the hydrogen atom accurately at low energies. The time-dependent approach solves a driven Schroedinger equation, and scales more favorably with the number of electrons than the original formulation. The method is demonstrated in calculations for breakup processes in two dimensions (2D) and three dimensions for systems involving short-range potentials and in 2D for electron-impact ionization in the Temkin-Poet model for electron-hydrogen atom collisions

  3. Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scales are a visible peeling or flaking of outer skin layers. These layers are called the stratum ... Scales may be caused by dry skin, certain inflammatory skin conditions, or infections. Examples of disorders that ...

  4. Time-sliced perturbation theory for large scale structure I: general formalism

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blas, Diego; Garny, Mathias; Sibiryakov, Sergey [Theory Division, CERN, CH-1211 Genève 23 (Switzerland); Ivanov, Mikhail M., E-mail: diego.blas@cern.ch, E-mail: mathias.garny@cern.ch, E-mail: mikhail.ivanov@cern.ch, E-mail: sergey.sibiryakov@cern.ch [FSB/ITP/LPPC, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, CH-1015, Lausanne (Switzerland)

    2016-07-01

    We present a new analytic approach to describe large scale structure formation in the mildly non-linear regime. The central object of the method is the time-dependent probability distribution function generating correlators of the cosmological observables at a given moment of time. Expanding the distribution function around the Gaussian weight we formulate a perturbative technique to calculate non-linear corrections to cosmological correlators, similar to the diagrammatic expansion in a three-dimensional Euclidean quantum field theory, with time playing the role of an external parameter. For the physically relevant case of cold dark matter in an Einstein-de Sitter universe, the time evolution of the distribution function can be found exactly and is encapsulated by a time-dependent coupling constant controlling the perturbative expansion. We show that all building blocks of the expansion are free from spurious infrared enhanced contributions that plague the standard cosmological perturbation theory. This paves the way towards the systematic resummation of infrared effects in large scale structure formation. We also argue that the approach proposed here provides a natural framework to account for the influence of short-scale dynamics on larger scales along the lines of effective field theory.

  5. Influence of the time scale on the construction of financial networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emmert-Streib, Frank; Dehmer, Matthias

    2010-09-30

    In this paper we investigate the definition and formation of financial networks. Specifically, we study the influence of the time scale on their construction. For our analysis we use correlation-based networks obtained from the daily closing prices of stock market data. More precisely, we use the stocks that currently comprise the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and estimate financial networks where nodes correspond to stocks and edges correspond to none vanishing correlation coefficients. That means only if a correlation coefficient is statistically significant different from zero, we include an edge in the network. This construction procedure results in unweighted, undirected networks. By separating the time series of stock prices in non-overlapping intervals, we obtain one network per interval. The length of these intervals corresponds to the time scale of the data, whose influence on the construction of the networks will be studied in this paper. Numerical analysis of four different measures in dependence on the time scale for the construction of networks allows us to gain insights about the intrinsic time scale of the stock market with respect to a meaningful graph-theoretical analysis.

  6. Decadal opportunities for space architects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherwood, Brent

    2012-12-01

    A significant challenge for the new field of space architecture is the dearth of project opportunities. Yet every year more young professionals express interest to enter the field. This paper derives projections that bound the number, type, and range of global development opportunities that may be reasonably expected over the next few decades for human space flight (HSF) systems so those interested in the field can benchmark their goals. Four categories of HSF activity are described: human Exploration of solar system bodies; human Servicing of space-based assets; large-scale development of space Resources; and Breakout of self-sustaining human societies into the solar system. A progressive sequence of capabilities for each category starts with its earliest feasible missions and leads toward its full expression. The four sequences are compared in scale, distance from Earth, and readiness. Scenarios hybridize the most synergistic features from the four sequences for comparison to status quo, government-funded HSF program plans. Finally qualitative, decadal, order-of-magnitude estimates are derived for system development needs, and hence opportunities for space architects. Government investment towards human planetary exploration is the weakest generator of space architecture work. Conversely, the strongest generator is a combination of three market drivers: (1) commercial passenger travel in low Earth orbit; (2) in parallel, government extension of HSF capability to GEO; both followed by (3) scale-up demonstration of end-to-end solar power satellites in GEO. The rich end of this scale affords space architecture opportunities which are more diverse, complex, large-scale, and sociologically challenging than traditional exploration vehicle cabins and habitats.

  7. Resolution, Scales and Predictability: Is High Resolution Detrimental To Predictability At Extended Forecast Times?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mesinger, F.

    The traditional views hold that high-resolution limited area models (LAMs) down- scale large-scale lateral boundary information, and that predictability of small scales is short. Inspection of various rms fits/errors has contributed to these views. It would follow that the skill of LAMs should visibly deteriorate compared to that of their driver models at more extended forecast times. The limited area Eta Model at NCEP has an additional handicap of being driven by LBCs of the previous Avn global model run, at 0000 and 1200 UTC estimated to amount to about an 8 h loss in accuracy. This should make its relative skill compared to that of the Avn deteriorate even faster. These views are challenged by various Eta results including rms fits to raobs out to 84 h. It is argued that it is the largest scales that contribute the most to the skill of the Eta relative to that of the Avn.

  8. Ability of surface and subsurface death assemblages to track km-scale spatial and decade-scale temporal variability in living communities: Tests using the urban southern California continental shelf

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kidwell, Susan M.; Tomasovych, Adam

    2016-04-01

    Actualistic analysis of death assemblages has always focused on quantifying, and achieving a mechanistic understanding of, the reliability of deep-time records, and is now additionally motivated to assess natural conditions before human impacts. The southern California continental shelf permits us to evaluate the ability of time-averaged death assemblages to detect known variability in urban nutrients, which increased from the early 20th Century up until the 1972 Clean Water Act. Biomonitoring since then documents strong declines in populations of pollution- and hypoxia-tolerant species, especially the chemosymbiontic lucinid bivalve Parvilucina tenuisculpta. This shelf is taphonomically challenging -- median shell ages are 50-100 y, only 1% of shells survive, the mixed-zone is ~25 cm thick, and siliciclastic accumulation is slow, in contrast to sediment-trapping estuaries and lagoons. Nonetheless, both surficial death and buried core assemblages capture first-order urban trends, albeit with significant damping of the large, spatially localized mid-20th Century pulse in Parvilucina abundance. Paleoecologists will thus detect but under-estimate the original magnitude of even strong past excursions in community composition, an important bounding condition for both recent- and deep-time analysis.

  9. Time-variable gravity potential components for optical clock comparisons and the definition of international time scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voigt, C.; Denker, H.; Timmen, L.

    2016-01-01

    The latest generation of optical atomic clocks is approaching the level of one part in 10 18 in terms of frequency stability and uncertainty. For clock comparisons and the definition of international time scales, a relativistic redshift effect of the clock frequencies has to be taken into account at a corresponding uncertainty level of about 0.1 m 2 s -2 and 0.01 m in terms of gravity potential and height, respectively. Besides the predominant static part of the gravity potential, temporal variations must be considered in order to avoid systematic frequency shifts. Time-variable gravity potential components induced by tides and non-tidal mass redistributions are investigated with regard to the level of one part in 10 18 . The magnitudes and dominant time periods of the individual gravity potential contributions are investigated globally and for specific laboratory sites together with the related uncertainty estimates. The basics of the computation methods are presented along with the applied models, data sets and software. Solid Earth tides contribute by far the most dominant signal with a global maximum amplitude of 4.2 m 2 s -2 for the potential and a range (maximum-to-minimum) of up to 1.3 and 10.0 m 2 s -2 in terms of potential differences between specific laboratories over continental and intercontinental scales, respectively. Amplitudes of the ocean tidal loading potential can amount up to 1.25 m 2 s -2 , while the range of the potential between specific laboratories is 0.3 and 1.1 m 2 s -2 over continental and intercontinental scales, respectively. These are the only two contributors being relevant at a 10 -17 level. However, several other time-variable potential effects can particularly affect clock comparisons at the 10 -18 level. Besides solid Earth pole tides, these are non-tidal mass redistributions in the atmosphere, the oceans and the continental water storage. (authors)

  10. A Decade of Suspicion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rytter, Mikkel; Pedersen, Marianne Holm

    2014-01-01

    In 2011, al-Qaeda leader, Osama Bin Laden, was killed in Pakistan and the US president, Barack Obama, concluded a decade of global ‘war against terror’. In light of this, it seems only sensible to explore what implications the post-9/11 international developments have had on a local basis...

  11. Decades of Discovery

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-01

    For the past two-and-a-half decades, the Office of Science at the U.S. Department of Energy has been at the forefront of scientific discovery. Over 100 important discoveries supported by the Office of Science are represented in this document.

  12. Decade-long time delays in nutrient and plant species dynamics during eutrophication and re-oligotrophication of Lake Fure 1900–2015

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sand-Jensen, Kaj; Bruun, Hans Henrik; Båstrup-Spohr, Lars

    2017-01-01

    Fure, Denmark, spanning the transformation from pristine environmental conditions in the early 1900s through a period (1920–1970) of eutrophication – from accelerating sewage input of phosphorus (P) – and subsequent re-oligotrophication after sewage cleaning (1970–2015). We examine time delays between...... sediment release. Fifty years of eutrophication led to a reduction in aquatic macrophyte richness from 36 species to 12. Species’ responses were closely related to their growth strategy and depth distribution. Deep-growing mosses, charophytes and short angiosperms disappeared, while tall angiosperms...... in species dominance takes longer than colonization by new species. Synthesis. Time delays of P concentrations, water clarity and macrophyte richness and composition were long and complex. Neglecting growth strategies of species makes application of extinction debt and colonization credit concepts dubious...

  13. Cosmological special relativity the large scale structure of space, time and velocity

    CERN Document Server

    Carmeli, Moshe

    1997-01-01

    This book deals with special relativity theory and its application to cosmology. It presents Einstein's theory of space and time in detail, and describes the large scale structure of space, time and velocity as a new cosmological special relativity. A cosmological Lorentz-like transformation, which relates events at different cosmic times, is derived and applied. A new law of addition of cosmic times is obtained, and the inflation of the space at the early universe is derived, both from the cosmological transformation. The book will be of interest to cosmologists, astrophysicists, theoretical

  14. Cosmological special relativity the large scale structure of space, time and velocity

    CERN Document Server

    Carmeli, Moshe

    2002-01-01

    This book presents Einstein's theory of space and time in detail, and describes the large-scale structure of space, time and velocity as a new cosmological special relativity. A cosmological Lorentz-like transformation, which relates events at different cosmic times, is derived and applied. A new law of addition of cosmic times is obtained, and the inflation of the space at the early universe is derived, both from the cosmological transformation. The relationship between cosmic velocity, acceleration and distances is given. In the appendices gravitation is added in the form of a cosmological g

  15. Time-scale effects on the gain-loss asymmetry in stock indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sándor, Bulcsú; Simonsen, Ingve; Nagy, Bálint Zsolt; Néda, Zoltán

    2016-08-01

    The gain-loss asymmetry, observed in the inverse statistics of stock indices is present for logarithmic return levels that are over 2 % , and it is the result of the non-Pearson-type autocorrelations in the index. These non-Pearson-type correlations can be viewed also as functionally dependent daily volatilities, extending for a finite time interval. A generalized time-window shuffling method is used to show the existence of such autocorrelations. Their characteristic time scale proves to be smaller (less than 25 trading days) than what was previously believed. It is also found that this characteristic time scale has decreased with the appearance of program trading in the stock market transactions. Connections with the leverage effect are also established.

  16. Linking Time and Space Scales in Distributed Hydrological Modelling - a case study for the VIC model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melsen, Lieke; Teuling, Adriaan; Torfs, Paul; Zappa, Massimiliano; Mizukami, Naoki; Clark, Martyn; Uijlenhoet, Remko

    2015-04-01

    One of the famous paradoxes of the Greek philosopher Zeno of Elea (~450 BC) is the one with the arrow: If one shoots an arrow, and cuts its motion into such small time steps that at every step the arrow is standing still, the arrow is motionless, because a concatenation of non-moving parts does not create motion. Nowadays, this reasoning can be refuted easily, because we know that motion is a change in space over time, which thus by definition depends on both time and space. If one disregards time by cutting it into infinite small steps, motion is also excluded. This example shows that time and space are linked and therefore hard to evaluate separately. As hydrologists we want to understand and predict the motion of water, which means we have to look both in space and in time. In hydrological models we can account for space by using spatially explicit models. With increasing computational power and increased data availability from e.g. satellites, it has become easier to apply models at a higher spatial resolution. Increasing the resolution of hydrological models is also labelled as one of the 'Grand Challenges' in hydrology by Wood et al. (2011) and Bierkens et al. (2014), who call for global modelling at hyperresolution (~1 km and smaller). A literature survey on 242 peer-viewed articles in which the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model was used, showed that the spatial resolution at which the model is applied has decreased over the past 17 years: From 0.5 to 2 degrees when the model was just developed, to 1/8 and even 1/32 degree nowadays. On the other hand the literature survey showed that the time step at which the model is calibrated and/or validated remained the same over the last 17 years; mainly daily or monthly. Klemeš (1983) stresses the fact that space and time scales are connected, and therefore downscaling the spatial scale would also imply downscaling of the temporal scale. Is it worth the effort of downscaling your model from 1 degree to 1

  17. Scaling relation between earthquake magnitude and the departure time from P wave similar growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noda, Shunta; Ellsworth, William L.

    2016-01-01

    We introduce a new scaling relation between earthquake magnitude (M) and a characteristic of initial P wave displacement. By examining Japanese K-NET data averaged in bins partitioned by Mw and hypocentral distance, we demonstrate that the P wave displacement briefly displays similar growth at the onset of rupture and that the departure time (Tdp), which is defined as the time of departure from similarity of the absolute displacement after applying a band-pass filter, correlates with the final M in a range of 4.5 ≤ Mw ≤ 7. The scaling relation between Mw and Tdp implies that useful information on the final M can be derived while the event is still in progress because Tdp occurs before the completion of rupture. We conclude that the scaling relation is important not only for earthquake early warning but also for the source physics of earthquakes.

  18. A Systematic Multi-Time Scale Solution for Regional Power Grid Operation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, W. J.; Liu, Z. G.; Cheng, T.; Hu, B. Q.; Liu, X. Z.; Zhou, Y. F.

    2017-10-01

    Many aspects need to be taken into consideration in a regional grid while making schedule plans. In this paper, a systematic multi-time scale solution for regional power grid operation considering large scale renewable energy integration and Ultra High Voltage (UHV) power transmission is proposed. In the time scale aspect, we discuss the problem from month, week, day-ahead, within-day to day-behind, and the system also contains multiple generator types including thermal units, hydro-plants, wind turbines and pumped storage stations. The 9 subsystems of the scheduling system are described, and their functions and relationships are elaborated. The proposed system has been constructed in a provincial power grid in Central China, and the operation results further verified the effectiveness of the system.

  19. Multidimensional scaling analysis of financial time series based on modified cross-sample entropy methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Jiayi; Shang, Pengjian; Xiong, Hui

    2018-06-01

    Stocks, as the concrete manifestation of financial time series with plenty of potential information, are often used in the study of financial time series. In this paper, we utilize the stock data to recognize their patterns through out the dissimilarity matrix based on modified cross-sample entropy, then three-dimensional perceptual maps of the results are provided through multidimensional scaling method. Two modified multidimensional scaling methods are proposed in this paper, that is, multidimensional scaling based on Kronecker-delta cross-sample entropy (MDS-KCSE) and multidimensional scaling based on permutation cross-sample entropy (MDS-PCSE). These two methods use Kronecker-delta based cross-sample entropy and permutation based cross-sample entropy to replace the distance or dissimilarity measurement in classical multidimensional scaling (MDS). Multidimensional scaling based on Chebyshev distance (MDSC) is employed to provide a reference for comparisons. Our analysis reveals a clear clustering both in synthetic data and 18 indices from diverse stock markets. It implies that time series generated by the same model are easier to have similar irregularity than others, and the difference in the stock index, which is caused by the country or region and the different financial policies, can reflect the irregularity in the data. In the synthetic data experiments, not only the time series generated by different models can be distinguished, the one generated under different parameters of the same model can also be detected. In the financial data experiment, the stock indices are clearly divided into five groups. Through analysis, we find that they correspond to five regions, respectively, that is, Europe, North America, South America, Asian-Pacific (with the exception of mainland China), mainland China and Russia. The results also demonstrate that MDS-KCSE and MDS-PCSE provide more effective divisions in experiments than MDSC.

  20. Sensitivity of the breastfeeding motivational measurement scale: a known group analysis of first time mothers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stockdale, Janine; Sinclair, Marlene; Kernohan, George; McCrum-Gardner, Evie; Keller, John

    2013-01-01

    Breastfeeding has immense public health value for mothers, babies, and society. But there is an undesirably large gap between the number of new mothers who undertake and persist in breastfeeding compared to what would be a preferred level of accomplishment. This gap is a reflection of the many obstacles, both physical and psychological, that confront new mothers. Previous research has illuminated many of these concerns, but research on this problem is limited in part by the unavailability of a research instrument that can measure the key differences between first-time mothers and experienced mothers, with regard to the challenges they face when breastfeeding and the instructional advice they require. An instrument was designed to measure motivational complexity associated with sustained breast feeding behaviour; the Breastfeeding Motivational Measurement Scale. It contains 51 self-report items (7 point Likert scale) that cluster into four categories related to perceived value of breast-feeding, confidence to succeed, factors that influence success or failure, and strength of intentions, or goal. However, this scale has not been validated in terms of its sensitivity to profile the motivation of new mothers and experienced mothers. This issue was investigated by having 202 breastfeeding mothers (100 first time mothers) fill out the scale. The analysis reported in this paper is a three factor solution consisting of value, midwife support, and expectancies for success that explained the characteristics of first time mothers as a known group. These results support the validity of the BMM scale as a diagnostic tool for research on first time mothers who are learning to breastfeed. Further research studies are required to further test the validity of the scale in additional subgroups.

  1. Evaluation of real-time operating system for small-scale embedded systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dayang Norhayati Abang Jawawi; Rosbi Mamat

    1999-01-01

    In this paper, the performance of some real-time operating systems for small-scale embedded systems are evaluated based on some criteria. The evaluation is performed qualitatively and quantitatively. The evaluation results based on a case study on an engineering application will be presented. (author)

  2. Hardy inequality on time scales and its application to half-linear dynamic equations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Řehák Pavel

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available A time-scale version of the Hardy inequality is presented, which unifies and extends well-known Hardy inequalities in the continuous and in the discrete setting. An application in the oscillation theory of half-linear dynamic equations is given.

  3. Modeling heat dominated electric breakdown in air, with adaptivity to electron or ion time scales

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Agnihotri, A.; Hundsdorfer, W.; Ebert, U.

    2017-01-01

    We model heat dominated electrical breakdown in air in a short planar gap. We couple the discharge dynamics in fluid approximation with the hydrodynamic motion of the air heated by the discharge. To be computationally efficient, we derive a reduced model on the ion time scale, and we switch between

  4. A limit set trichotomy for order-preserving systems on time scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Poetzsche

    2004-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we derive a limit set trichotomy for abstract order-preserving 2-parameter semiflows in normal cones of strongly ordered Banach spaces. Additionally, to provide an example, Muller's theorem is generalized to dynamic equations on arbitrary time scales and applied to a model from population dynamics.

  5. Extension of the astronomically calibrated (polarity) time scale to the Miocene/Pliocene boundary

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hilgen, F.J.

    1991-01-01

    The early Pleistocene to late Pliocene astronormcally calibrated time scale of Shackleton et al. [1] and Hllgen [2] is extended to the Mlocene/Pllocene boundary This is done by correlating the detailed record of CaCO 3 cycles in the Trubl and the lower part of the overlying Narbone Formation

  6. Fixation of competing strategies when interacting agents differ in the time scale of strategy updating

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhang, Jianlei; Weissing, Franz J.; Cao, Ming

    2016-01-01

    A commonly used assumption in evolutionary game theory is that natural selection acts on individuals in the same time scale; e.g., players use the same frequency to update their strategies. Variation in learning rates within populations suggests that evolutionary game theory may not necessarily be

  7. Time-scale effects in the interaction between a large and a small herbivore

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuijper, D. P. J.; Beek, P.; van Wieren, S.E.; Bakker, J. P.

    2008-01-01

    In the short term, grazing will mainly affect plant biomass and forage quality. However, grazing can affect plant species composition by accelerating or retarding succession at longer time-scales. Few studies concerning interactions among herbivores have taken the change in plant species composition

  8. Natural variability of atmospheric temperatures and geomagnetic intensity over a wide range of time scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pelletier, Jon D

    2002-02-19

    The majority of numerical models in climatology and geomagnetism rely on deterministic finite-difference techniques and attempt to include as many empirical constraints on the many processes and boundary conditions applicable to their very complex systems. Despite their sophistication, many of these models are unable to reproduce basic aspects of climatic or geomagnetic dynamics. We show that a simple stochastic model, which treats the flux of heat energy in the atmosphere by convective instabilities with random advection and diffusive mixing, does a remarkable job at matching the observed power spectrum of historical and proxy records for atmospheric temperatures from time scales of one day to one million years (Myr). With this approach distinct changes in the power-spectral form can be associated with characteristic time scales of ocean mixing and radiative damping. Similarly, a simple model of the diffusion of magnetic intensity in Earth's core coupled with amplification and destruction of the local intensity can reproduce the observed 1/f noise behavior of Earth's geomagnetic intensity from time scales of 1 (Myr) to 100 yr. In addition, the statistics of the fluctuations in the polarity reversal rate from time scales of 1 Myr to 100 Myr are consistent with the hypothesis that reversals are the result of variations in 1/f noise geomagnetic intensity above a certain threshold, suggesting that reversals may be associated with internal fluctuations rather than changes in mantle thermal or magnetic boundary conditions.

  9. Time scales: from Nabla calculus to Delta calculus and vice versa via duality

    OpenAIRE

    Caputo, M. Cristina

    2009-01-01

    In this note we show how one can obtain results from the nabla calculus from results on the delta calculus and vice versa via a duality argument. We provide applications of the main results to the calculus of variations on time scales.

  10. A Visual Method of Time Scale Determination using a PC for Radio ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Abstract. Variability is one of the extremely observational properties. In the radio bands, variability is caused by the shock in the jet. In this case, emissions increase rapidly following an exponential curve, and then decrease rapidly also in an exponential curve. The variability time scale is important with regard to the physics ...

  11. Anti-control of chaos of single time-scale brushless DC motor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge, Zheng-Ming; Chang, Ching-Ming; Chen, Yen-Sheng

    2006-09-15

    Anti-control of chaos of single time-scale brushless DC motors is studied in this paper. In order to analyse a variety of periodic and chaotic phenomena, we employ several numerical techniques such as phase portraits, bifurcation diagrams and Lyapunov exponents. Anti-control of chaos can be achieved by adding an external constant term or an external periodic term.

  12. Principal and nonprincipal solutions of symplectic dynamic systems on time scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ondrej Dosly

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available We establish the concept of the principal and nonprincipal solution for the so-called symplectic dynamic systems on time scales. We also present a brief survey of the history of these concept for differential and difference equations.

  13. Development and Preliminary Validation of the Time Management for Exercise Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hellsten, Laurie-ann M.; Rogers, W. Todd

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to collect preliminary validity evidence for a time management scale for exercise. An initial pool of 91 items was developed from existing literature. Ten exercise/health psychologists evaluated each of the items in terms of relevance and representativeness. Forty-nine items met all criteria. Exploratory factor…

  14. Towards a Unified Formulation of Dynamics and Thermodynamics I. From Microscopic to Macroscopic Time Scales

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Durand, P.; Paidarová, Ivana

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 111, č. 2 (2011), s. 225-236 ISSN 0020-7608 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA100400501; GA AV ČR IAA401870702 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z40400503 Keywords : Liouville equation * time scales * chemical kinetics and dynamics Subject RIV: CF - Physical ; Theoretical Chemistry Impact factor: 1.357, year: 2011

  15. Assessment of the methods for determining net radiation at different time-scales of meteorological variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ni An

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available When modeling the soil/atmosphere interaction, it is of paramount importance to determine the net radiation flux. There are two common calculation methods for this purpose. Method 1 relies on use of air temperature, while Method 2 relies on use of both air and soil temperatures. Nowadays, there has been no consensus on the application of these two methods. In this study, the half-hourly data of solar radiation recorded at an experimental embankment are used to calculate the net radiation and long-wave radiation at different time-scales (half-hourly, hourly, and daily using the two methods. The results show that, compared with Method 2 which has been widely adopted in agronomical, geotechnical and geo-environmental applications, Method 1 is more feasible for its simplicity and accuracy at shorter time-scale. Moreover, in case of longer time-scale, daily for instance, less variations of net radiation and long-wave radiation are obtained, suggesting that no detailed soil temperature variations can be obtained. In other words, shorter time-scales are preferred in determining net radiation flux.

  16. Global Stability of Complex-Valued Genetic Regulatory Networks with Delays on Time Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang Yajing

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the global exponential stability of complex-valued genetic regulatory networks with delays is investigated. Besides presenting conditions guaranteeing the existence of a unique equilibrium pattern, its global exponential stability is discussed. Some numerical examples for different time scales.

  17. How the constants in Hille-Nehari theorems depend on time scales

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Řehák, Pavel

    2006-01-01

    Roč. 2006, - (2006), s. 1-15 ISSN 1687-1839 R&D Pro jects: GA ČR(CZ) GA201/01/0079; GA ČR(CZ) GP201/01/P041 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10190503 Keywords : dynamic equation * time scales * oscillation criteria Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics

  18. Theoretical and Numerical Properties of a Gyrokinetic Plasma: Issues Related to Transport Time Scale Simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, W.W.

    2003-01-01

    Particle simulation has played an important role for the recent investigations on turbulence in magnetically confined plasmas. In this paper, theoretical and numerical properties of a gyrokinetic plasma as well as its relationship with magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) are discussed with the ultimate aim of simulating microturbulence in transport time scale using massively parallel computers

  19. Time scales for spinodal decomposition in nuclear matter with pseudo-particle model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Idier, D.; Benhassine, B.; Farine, M.; Remaud, B.; Sebille, F.

    1993-12-31

    Dynamical instabilities arising from fluctuations in the spinodal zone for nuclear matter are studied using a large variety of zero range interactions in the frame of a pseudo-particle model. Scale times for spinodal decomposition are extracted and a possible link with decomposition in real heavy-ion collisions is discussed. (author) 12 refs.; 6 figs.; 1 tab.

  20. Time scales for spinodal decomposition in nuclear matter with pseudo-particle model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Idier, D.; Benhassine, B.; Farine, M.; Remaud, B.; Sebille, F.

    1993-01-01

    Dynamical instabilities arising from fluctuations in the spinodal zone for nuclear matter are studied using a large variety of zero range interactions in the frame of a pseudo-particle model. Scale times for spinodal decomposition are extracted and a possible link with decomposition in real heavy-ion collisions is discussed. (author) 12 refs.; 6 figs.; 1 tab

  1. Time scales for spinodal decomposition in nuclear matter with pseudoparticle models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Idier, D.; Benhassine, B.; Farine, M.; Remaud, B.; Sebille, F.

    1993-01-01

    Dynamical instabilities arising from fluctuations in the spinodal zone for nuclear matter are studied using a large variety of zero range interactions in the frame of a pseudoparticle model. Scale times for spinodal decomposition are extracted and a possible link with decomposition in real heavy-ion collisions is discussed

  2. Time scales for spinodal decomposition in nuclear matter with pseudoparticle models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Idier, D.; Benhassine, B.; Farine, M.; Remaud, B.; Sebille, F. (Laboratoire de Physique Nucleaire CNRS/IN2P3, Universite de Nantes, 2, rue de la Houssiniere, 44072 Nantes (France))

    1993-08-01

    Dynamical instabilities arising from fluctuations in the spinodal zone for nuclear matter are studied using a large variety of zero range interactions in the frame of a pseudoparticle model. Scale times for spinodal decomposition are extracted and a possible link with decomposition in real heavy-ion collisions is discussed.

  3. Non-Abelian Kubo formula and the multiple time-scale method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, X.; Li, J.

    1996-01-01

    The non-Abelian Kubo formula is derived from the kinetic theory. That expression is compared with the one obtained using the eikonal for a Chern endash Simons theory. The multiple time-scale method is used to study the non-Abelian Kubo formula, and the damping rate for longitudinal color waves is computed. copyright 1996 Academic Press, Inc

  4. Crystal plasticity based modeling of time and scale dependent behavior of thin films

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Erturk, I.; Gao, K.; Bielen, J.A.; Dommelen, van J.A.W.; Geers, M.G.D.

    2013-01-01

    The micro and sub-micro scale dimensions of the components of modern high-tech products pose challenging engineering problems that require advanced tools to tackle them. An example hereof is time dependent strain recovery, here referred to as anelasticity, which is observed in metallic thin film

  5. Existence and global exponential stability of periodic solutions for n-dimensional neutral dynamic equations on time scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Bing; Li, Yongkun; Zhang, Xuemei

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, by using the existence of the exponential dichotomy of linear dynamic equations on time scales and the theory of calculus on time scales, we study the existence and global exponential stability of periodic solutions for a class of n-dimensional neutral dynamic equations on time scales. We also present an example to illustrate the feasibility of our results. The results of this paper are completely new and complementary to the previously known results even in both the case of differential equations (time scale [Formula: see text]) and the case of difference equations (time scale [Formula: see text]).

  6. Evaluation of scalar mixing and time scale models in PDF simulations of a turbulent premixed flame

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stoellinger, Michael; Heinz, Stefan [Department of Mathematics, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY (United States)

    2010-09-15

    Numerical simulation results obtained with a transported scalar probability density function (PDF) method are presented for a piloted turbulent premixed flame. The accuracy of the PDF method depends on the scalar mixing model and the scalar time scale model. Three widely used scalar mixing models are evaluated: the interaction by exchange with the mean (IEM) model, the modified Curl's coalescence/dispersion (CD) model and the Euclidean minimum spanning tree (EMST) model. The three scalar mixing models are combined with a simple model for the scalar time scale which assumes a constant C{sub {phi}}=12 value. A comparison of the simulation results with available measurements shows that only the EMST model calculates accurately the mean and variance of the reaction progress variable. An evaluation of the structure of the PDF's of the reaction progress variable predicted by the three scalar mixing models confirms this conclusion: the IEM and CD models predict an unrealistic shape of the PDF. Simulations using various C{sub {phi}} values ranging from 2 to 50 combined with the three scalar mixing models have been performed. The observed deficiencies of the IEM and CD models persisted for all C{sub {phi}} values considered. The value C{sub {phi}}=12 combined with the EMST model was found to be an optimal choice. To avoid the ad hoc choice for C{sub {phi}}, more sophisticated models for the scalar time scale have been used in simulations using the EMST model. A new model for the scalar time scale which is based on a linear blending between a model for flamelet combustion and a model for distributed combustion is developed. The new model has proven to be very promising as a scalar time scale model which can be applied from flamelet to distributed combustion. (author)

  7. Robust scaling laws for energy confinement time, including radiated fraction, in Tokamaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murari, A.; Peluso, E.; Gaudio, P.; Gelfusa, M.

    2017-12-01

    In recent years, the limitations of scalings in power-law form that are obtained from traditional log regression have become increasingly evident in many fields of research. Given the wide gap in operational space between present-day and next-generation devices, robustness of the obtained models in guaranteeing reasonable extrapolability is a major issue. In this paper, a new technique, called symbolic regression, is reviewed, refined, and applied to the ITPA database for extracting scaling laws of the energy-confinement time at different radiated fraction levels. The main advantage of this new methodology is its ability to determine the most appropriate mathematical form of the scaling laws to model the available databases without the restriction of their having to be power laws. In a completely new development, this technique is combined with the concept of geodesic distance on Gaussian manifolds so as to take into account the error bars in the measurements and provide more reliable models. Robust scaling laws, including radiated fractions as regressor, have been found; they are not in power-law form, and are significantly better than the traditional scalings. These scaling laws, including radiated fractions, extrapolate quite differently to ITER, and therefore they require serious consideration. On the other hand, given the limitations of the existing databases, dedicated experimental investigations will have to be carried out to fully understand the impact of radiated fractions on the confinement in metallic machines and in the next generation of devices.

  8. Earth History databases and visualization - the TimeScale Creator system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogg, James; Lugowski, Adam; Gradstein, Felix

    2010-05-01

    The "TimeScale Creator" team (www.tscreator.org) and the Subcommission on Stratigraphic Information (stratigraphy.science.purdue.edu) of the International Commission on Stratigraphy (www.stratigraphy.org) has worked with numerous geoscientists and geological surveys to prepare reference datasets for global and regional stratigraphy. All events are currently calibrated to Geologic Time Scale 2004 (Gradstein et al., 2004, Cambridge Univ. Press) and Concise Geologic Time Scale (Ogg et al., 2008, Cambridge Univ. Press); but the array of intercalibrations enable dynamic adjustment to future numerical age scales and interpolation methods. The main "global" database contains over 25,000 events/zones from paleontology, geomagnetics, sea-level and sequence stratigraphy, igneous provinces, bolide impacts, plus several stable isotope curves and image sets. Several regional datasets are provided in conjunction with geological surveys, with numerical ages interpolated using a similar flexible inter-calibration procedure. For example, a joint program with Geoscience Australia has compiled an extensive Australian regional biostratigraphy and a full array of basin lithologic columns with each formation linked to public lexicons of all Proterozoic through Phanerozoic basins - nearly 500 columns of over 9,000 data lines plus hot-curser links to oil-gas reference wells. Other datapacks include New Zealand biostratigraphy and basin transects (ca. 200 columns), Russian biostratigraphy, British Isles regional stratigraphy, Gulf of Mexico biostratigraphy and lithostratigraphy, high-resolution Neogene stable isotope curves and ice-core data, human cultural episodes, and Circum-Arctic stratigraphy sets. The growing library of datasets is designed for viewing and chart-making in the free "TimeScale Creator" JAVA package. This visualization system produces a screen display of the user-selected time-span and the selected columns of geologic time scale information. The user can change the

  9. Optimal dynamic voltage scaling for wireless sensor nodes with real-time constraints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassandras, Christos G.; Zhuang, Shixin

    2005-11-01

    Sensors are increasingly embedded in manufacturing systems and wirelessly networked to monitor and manage operations ranging from process and inventory control to tracking equipment and even post-manufacturing product monitoring. In building such sensor networks, a critical issue is the limited and hard to replenish energy in the devices involved. Dynamic voltage scaling is a technique that controls the operating voltage of a processor to provide desired performance while conserving energy and prolonging the overall network's lifetime. We consider such power-limited devices processing time-critical tasks which are non-preemptive, aperiodic and have uncertain arrival times. We treat voltage scaling as a dynamic optimization problem whose objective is to minimize energy consumption subject to hard or soft real-time execution constraints. In the case of hard constraints, we build on prior work (which engages a voltage scaling controller at task completion times) by developing an intra-task controller that acts at all arrival times of incoming tasks. We show that this optimization problem can be decomposed into two simpler ones whose solution leads to an algorithm that does not actually require solving any nonlinear programming problems. In the case of soft constraints, this decomposition must be partly relaxed, but it still leads to a scalable (linear in the number of tasks) algorithm. Simulation results are provided to illustrate performance improvements in systems with intra-task controllers compared to uncontrolled systems or those using inter-task control.

  10. Flow characteristics of a pilot-scale high temperature, short time pasteurizer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomasula, P M; Kozempel, M F

    2004-09-01

    In this study, we present a method for determining the fastest moving particle (FMP) and residence time distribution (RTD) in a pilot-scale high temperature, short time (HTST) pasteurizer to ensure that laboratory or pilot-scale HTST apparatus meets the Pasteurized Milk Ordinance standards for pasteurization of milk and can be used for obtaining thermal inactivation data. The overall dimensions of the plate in the pasteurizer were 75 x 115 mm, with a thickness of 0.5 mm and effective diameter of 3.0 mm. The pasteurizer was equipped with nominal 21.5- and 52.2-s hold tubes, and flow capacity was variable from 0 to 20 L/h. Tracer studies were used to determine FMP times and RTD data to establish flow characteristics. Using brine milk as tracer, the FMP time for the short holding section was 18.6 s and for the long holding section was 36 s at 72 degrees C, compared with the nominal times of 21.5 and 52.2 s, respectively. The RTD study indicates that the short hold section was 45% back mixed and 55% plug flow for whole milk at 72 degrees C. The long hold section was 91% plug and 9% back mixed for whole milk at 72 degrees C. This study demonstrates that continuous laboratory and pilot-scale pasteurizers may be used to study inactivation of microorganisms only if the flow conditions in the holding tube are established for comparison with commercial HTST systems.

  11. International Lunar Decade Status

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beldavs, VZ; Crisafulli, J.; Dunlop, D.; Foing, B.

    2017-09-01

    The International Lunar Decade is a global decadal event designed to provide a framework for strategically directed international cooperation for permanent return to the Moon. To be launched July 20, 2019, the 50th anniversary of the giant leap for mankind marked by Neil Armstrong's first step on the Moon, the ILD launch will include events around the world to celebrate space exploration, science, and the expansion of humanity into the Solar System. The ILD framework links lunar exploration and space sciences with the development of enabling technologies, infrastructure, means of financing, laws and policies aimed at lowering the costs and risks of venturing into space. Dramatically reduced costs will broaden the range of opportunities available in space and widen access to space for more states, companies and people worldwide. The ILD is intended to bring about the efflorescence of commercial business based on space resources from the Moon, asteroids, comets and other bodies in the Solar System.

  12. Low-power operation using self-timed circuits and adaptive scaling of the supply voltage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Lars Skovby; Niessen, C.; Sparsø, Jens

    1994-01-01

    Recent research has demonstrated that for certain types of applications like sampled audio systems, self-timed circuits can achieve very low power consumption, because unused circuit parts automatically turn into a stand-by mode. Additional savings may be obtained by combining the self......-timed circuits with a mechanism that adaptively adjusts the supply voltage to the smallest possible, while maintaining the performance requirements. This paper describes such a mechanism, analyzes the possible power savings, and presents a demonstrator chip that has been fabricated and tested. The idea...... of voltage scaling has been used previously in synchronous circuits, and the contributions of the present paper are: 1) the combination of supply scaling and self-timed circuitry which has some unique advantages, and 2) the thorough analysis of the power savings that are possible using this technique.>...

  13. Periodic Solution of Second-Order Hamiltonian Systems with a Change Sign Potential on Time Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    You-Hui Su

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with the second-order Hamiltonian system on time scales 𝕋 of the form uΔΔ(ρ(t+μb(t|u(t|μ−2u(t+∇¯H(t,u(t=0, Δ-a.e. t∈[0,T]𝕋 , u(0−u(T=uΔ(ρ(0−uΔ(ρ(T=0, where 0,T∈𝕋. By using the minimax methods in critical theory, an existence theorem of periodic solution for the above system is established. As an application, an example is given to illustrate the result. This is probably the first time the existence of periodic solutions for second-order Hamiltonian system on time scales has been studied by critical theory.

  14. Measuring parent time scarcity and fatigue as barriers to meal planning and preparation: quantitative scale development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storfer-Isser, Amy; Musher-Eizenman, Dara

    2013-03-01

    To examine the psychometric properties of 9 quantitative items that assess time scarcity and fatigue as parent barriers to planning and preparing meals for their children. A convenience sample of 342 parents of children aged 2-6 years completed a 20-minute online survey. Exploratory factor analysis was used to examine the factor structure and create summary scales. Internal consistency reliability and measures of construct and concurrent validity were assessed. Two scales were created based on the factor analysis: time and energy for meals and meal planning. Preliminary evidence suggests that both scales are reliable and valid. The time and energy for meals and meal planning scales can be completed quickly by busy and tired parents. As many children do not eat nutritious diets, a better understanding of the barriers that parents face is critical and may help inform interventions tailored to the needs of tired, busy parents. Copyright © 2013 Society for Nutrition Education and Behavior. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Decadal to millennial time scale climate variability in the Central Mediterranean during the Holocene: a reconstruction based on geochemical proxies from high resolution sedimentary records

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goudeau, M.S.

    2014-01-01

    To assess potential anthropogenic contributions to future climate change it is necessary to understand natural climate variability. This can be achieved by studying climate variability during the Holocene, when similar basic climate boundary conditions persisted as today. During this period climate

  16. Cross-biome transplants of plant litter show decomposition models extend to a broader climatic range but lose predictability at the decadal time scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    William S. Currie; Mark E. Harmon; Ingrid C. Burke; Stephen C. Hart; William J. Parton; Whendee L. Silver

    2009-01-01

    We analyzed results from 10-year long field incubations of foliar and fine root litter from the Long-term lntersite Decomposition Experiment Team (LIDET) study. We tested whether a variety of climate and litter quality variables could be used to develop regression models of decomposition parameters across wide ranges in litter quality and climate and whether these...

  17. Collaborative Research: Atlantic Ocean Tropical/Subtropical Processes from Seasonal to Decadal Time Scales: Model/Data, Model/Model Comparison and Model/Data Synthesis Through Assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malannotte-Rizzoli, Paola

    2003-01-01

    The effort of this first year of research has been focused on the assimilation of TOPEX/Poseidon altimetric data into a primitive equation model of the Atlantic tropical/subtropical circulation. A reduced-rank, stationary Kalman filter has been constructed to assimilate the altimetric sea surface height anomaly (SHA) into the model. The goal is to assess how the inter-hemispheric transports between the Atlantic subtropics and tropics are affected by the assimilation and how the subsurface thermocline structure , and its variability ,is dynamically constrained by the SHA. The model is a reduced-gravity primitive equation GCM of the upper Atlantic Ocean between 30 S and 30 N. The assimilation scheme is an approximation to the extended Kalman filter in which the error covariances of the state estimates are calculated only in a reduced- dimension subspace. The subspace is defined by the leading empirical orthogonal functions calculated from an unconstrained model calculation. Both an identical twin experiment using simulated SHA observations and assimilation of the real TOPEX data were performed. Results from the twin experiments demonstrate the ability of the method to constrain the ocean circulation and the subsurface temperature structure. The impact on the subsurface temperature structure of TOPEX assimilation was assessed using data from expandable bathythermographs. This showed a substantial improvement in the estimated temperature variability only within 13 degrees in latitude around the equator. The impact of TOPEX SHA assimilation on zonally integrated meridional transport across different latitudes was also estimated. Again within 13 degrees from the equator both the mean amplitude and interannual variability of the surface and subsurface transports were significantly enhanced, while the transports were insensitive to the assimilation in the subtropics.

  18. Effect of agitation time on nutrient distribution in full-scale CSTR biogas digesters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kress, Philipp; Nägele, Hans-Joachim; Oechsner, Hans; Ruile, Stephan

    2018-01-01

    The aim of this work was to study the impact of reduced mixing time in a full-scale CSTR biogas reactor from 10 to 5 and to 2min in half an hour on the distribution of DM, acetic acid and FOS/TAC as a measure to cut electricity consumption. The parameters in the digestate were unevenly distributed with the highest concentration measured at the point of feeding. By reducing mixing time, the FOS/TAC value increases by 16.6%. A reduced mixing time of 2min lead to an accumulation of 15% biogas in the digestate. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Modeling and Validating Time, Buffering, and Utilization of a Large-Scale, Real-Time Data Acquisition System

    CERN Document Server

    AUTHOR|(SzGeCERN)756497; The ATLAS collaboration; Garcia Garcia, Pedro Javier; Vandelli, Wainer; Froening, Holger

    2017-01-01

    Data acquisition systems for large-scale high-energy physics experiments have to handle hundreds of gigabytes per second of data, and are typically realized as specialized data centers that connect a very large number of front-end electronics devices to an event detection and storage system. The design of such systems is often based on many assumptions, small-scale experiments and a substantial amount of over-provisioning. In this work, we introduce a discrete event-based simulation tool that models the data flow of the current ATLAS data acquisition system, with the main goal to be accurate with regard to the main operational characteristics. We measure buffer occupancy counting the number of elements in buffers, resource utilization measuring output bandwidth and counting the number of active processing units, and their time evolution by comparing data over many consecutive and small periods of time. We perform studies on the error of simulation when comparing the results to a large amount of real-world ope...

  20. Modeling and Validating Time, Buffering, and Utilization of a Large-Scale, Real-Time Data Acquisition System

    CERN Document Server

    AUTHOR|(SzGeCERN)756497; The ATLAS collaboration; Garcia Garcia, Pedro Javier; Vandelli, Wainer; Froening, Holger

    2017-01-01

    Data acquisition systems for large-scale high-energy physics experiments have to handle hundreds of gigabytes per second of data, and are typically implemented as specialized data centers that connect a very large number of front-end electronics devices to an event detection and storage system. The design of such systems is often based on many assumptions, small-scale experiments and a substantial amount of over-provisioning. In this paper, we introduce a discrete event-based simulation tool that models the dataflow of the current ATLAS data acquisition system, with the main goal to be accurate with regard to the main operational characteristics. We measure buffer occupancy counting the number of elements in buffers; resource utilization measuring output bandwidth and counting the number of active processing units, and their time evolution by comparing data over many consecutive and small periods of time. We perform studies on the error in simulation when comparing the results to a large amount of real-world ...

  1. Time delay effects on large-scale MR damper based semi-active control strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cha, Y-J; Agrawal, A K; Dyke, S J

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a detailed investigation on the robustness of large-scale 200 kN MR damper based semi-active control strategies in the presence of time delays in the control system. Although the effects of time delay on stability and performance degradation of an actively controlled system have been investigated extensively by many researchers, degradation in the performance of semi-active systems due to time delay has yet to be investigated. Since semi-active systems are inherently stable, instability problems due to time delay are unlikely to arise. This paper investigates the effects of time delay on the performance of a building with a large-scale MR damper, using numerical simulations of near- and far-field earthquakes. The MR damper is considered to be controlled by four different semi-active control algorithms, namely (i) clipped-optimal control (COC), (ii) decentralized output feedback polynomial control (DOFPC), (iii) Lyapunov control, and (iv) simple-passive control (SPC). It is observed that all controllers except for the COC are significantly robust with respect to time delay. On the other hand, the clipped-optimal controller should be integrated with a compensator to improve the performance in the presence of time delay. (paper)

  2. Correcting Spatial Variance of RCM for GEO SAR Imaging Based on Time-Frequency Scaling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Ze; Lin, Peng; Xiao, Peng; Kang, Lihong; Li, Chunsheng

    2016-01-01

    Compared with low-Earth orbit synthetic aperture radar (SAR), a geosynchronous (GEO) SAR can have a shorter revisit period and vaster coverage. However, relative motion between this SAR and targets is more complicated, which makes range cell migration (RCM) spatially variant along both range and azimuth. As a result, efficient and precise imaging becomes difficult. This paper analyzes and models spatial variance for GEO SAR in the time and frequency domains. A novel algorithm for GEO SAR imaging with a resolution of 2 m in both the ground cross-range and range directions is proposed, which is composed of five steps. The first is to eliminate linear azimuth variance through the first azimuth time scaling. The second is to achieve RCM correction and range compression. The third is to correct residual azimuth variance by the second azimuth time-frequency scaling. The fourth and final steps are to accomplish azimuth focusing and correct geometric distortion. The most important innovation of this algorithm is implementation of the time-frequency scaling to correct high-order azimuth variance. As demonstrated by simulation results, this algorithm can accomplish GEO SAR imaging with good and uniform imaging quality over the entire swath. PMID:27428974

  3. Modeling and simulation of nuclear fuel in scenarios with long time scales

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Espinosa, Carlos E.; Bodmann, Bardo E.J., E-mail: eduardo.espinosa@ufrgs.br, E-mail: bardo.bodmann@ufrgs.br [Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (DENUC/PROMEC/UFRGS), Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil). Departamento de Engenharia Nuclear. Programa de Pos Graduacao em Engenharia Mecanica

    2015-07-01

    Nuclear reactors play a key role in defining the energy matrix. A study by the Fraunhofer Society shows in different time scales for long periods of time the distribution of energy sources. Regardless of scale, the use of nuclear energy is practically constant. In these scenarios, the nuclear fuel behavior over time is of interest. For kinetics of long-term scales, changing the chemical composition of fuel is significant. Thus, it is appropriate to consider fission products called neutron poisons. Such products are of interest in the nuclear reactor, since they become parasitic neutron absorbers and result in long thermal heat sources. The objective of this work is to solve the kinetics system coupled to neutron poison products. To solve this system, we use similar ideas to the method of Adomian decomposition. Initially, one separates the system of equations as the sum of a linear part and a non-linear part in order to solve a recursive system. The nonlinearity is treated as Adomian polynomial. We present numerical results of the effects of changing the power of a reactor, scenarios such as start-up and shut-down. For these results we consider time dependent reactivity, such as linear reactivity, quadratic polynomial and oscillatory. With these results one can simulate the chemical composition of the fuel due to the reuse of the spent fuel in subsequent cycles. (author)

  4. Atomic and molecular dynamics triggered by ultrashort light pulses on the atto- to picosecond time scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pabst, Stefan

    2013-04-01

    Time-resolved investigations of ultrafast electronic and molecular dynamics were not possible until recently. The typical time scale of these processes is in the picosecond to attosecond realm. The tremendous technological progress in recent years made it possible to generate ultrashort pulses, which can be used to trigger, to watch, and to control atomic and molecular motion. This tutorial focuses on experimental and theoretical advances which are used to study the dynamics of electrons and molecules in the presence of ultrashort pulses. In the first part, the rotational dynamics of molecules, which happens on picosecond and femtosecond time scales, is reviewed. Well-aligned molecules are particularly suitable for angle-dependent investigations like x-ray diffraction or strong-field ionization experiments. In the second part, the ionization dynamics of atoms is studied. The characteristic time scale lies, here, in the attosecond to few-femtosecond regime. Although a one-particle picture has been successfully applied to many processes, many-body effects do constantly occur. After a broad overview of the main mechanisms and the most common tools in attosecond physics, examples of many-body dynamics in the attosecond world (e.g., in high-harmonic generation and attosecond transient absorption spectroscopy) are discussed.

  5. Modeling and simulation of nuclear fuel in scenarios with long time scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Espinosa, Carlos E.; Bodmann, Bardo E.J.

    2015-01-01

    Nuclear reactors play a key role in defining the energy matrix. A study by the Fraunhofer Society shows in different time scales for long periods of time the distribution of energy sources. Regardless of scale, the use of nuclear energy is practically constant. In these scenarios, the nuclear fuel behavior over time is of interest. For kinetics of long-term scales, changing the chemical composition of fuel is significant. Thus, it is appropriate to consider fission products called neutron poisons. Such products are of interest in the nuclear reactor, since they become parasitic neutron absorbers and result in long thermal heat sources. The objective of this work is to solve the kinetics system coupled to neutron poison products. To solve this system, we use similar ideas to the method of Adomian decomposition. Initially, one separates the system of equations as the sum of a linear part and a non-linear part in order to solve a recursive system. The nonlinearity is treated as Adomian polynomial. We present numerical results of the effects of changing the power of a reactor, scenarios such as start-up and shut-down. For these results we consider time dependent reactivity, such as linear reactivity, quadratic polynomial and oscillatory. With these results one can simulate the chemical composition of the fuel due to the reuse of the spent fuel in subsequent cycles. (author)

  6. Scale size and life time of energy conversion regions observed by Cluster in the plasma sheet

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Hamrin

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available In this article, and in a companion paper by Hamrin et al. (2009 [Occurrence and location of concentrated load and generator regions observed by Cluster in the plasma sheet], we investigate localized energy conversion regions (ECRs in Earth's plasma sheet. From more than 80 Cluster plasma sheet crossings (660 h data at the altitude of about 15–20 RE in the summer and fall of 2001, we have identified 116 Concentrated Load Regions (CLRs and 35 Concentrated Generator Regions (CGRs. By examining variations in the power density, E·J, where E is the electric field and J is the current density obtained by Cluster, we have estimated typical values of the scale size and life time of the CLRs and the CGRs. We find that a majority of the observed ECRs are rather stationary in space, but varying in time. Assuming that the ECRs are cylindrically shaped and equal in size, we conclude that the typical scale size of the ECRs is 2 RE≲ΔSECR≲5 RE. The ECRs hence occupy a significant portion of the mid altitude plasma sheet. Moreover, the CLRs appear to be somewhat larger than the CGRs. The life time of the ECRs are of the order of 1–10 min, consistent with the large scale magnetotail MHD simulations of Birn and Hesse (2005. The life time of the CGRs is somewhat shorter than for the CLRs. On time scales of 1–10 min, we believe that ECRs rise and vanish in significant regions of the plasma sheet, possibly oscillating between load and generator character. It is probable that at least some of the observed ECRs oscillate energy back and forth in the plasma sheet instead of channeling it to the ionosphere.

  7. On the time-scales of magmatism at island-arc volcanoes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, S P

    2002-12-15

    Precise information on time-scales and rates of change is fundamental to an understanding of natural processes and the development of quantitative physical models in the Earth sciences. U-series isotope studies are revolutionizing this field by providing time information in the range 10(2)-10(4) years, which is similar to that of many modern Earth processes. I review how the application of U-series isotopes has been used to constrain the time-scales of magma formation, ascent and storage beneath island-arc volcanoes. Different elements are distilled-off the subducting plate at different times and in different places. Contributions from subducted sediments to island-arc lava sources appear to occur some 350 kyr to 4 Myr prior to eruption. Fluid release from the subducting oceanic crust into the mantle wedge may be a multi-stage process and occurs over a period ranging from a few hundred kyr to less than one kyr prior to eruption. This implies that dehydration commences prior to the initiation of partial melting within the mantle wedge, which is consistent with recent evidence that the onset of melting is controlled by an isotherm and thus the thermal structure within the wedge. U-Pa disequilibria appear to require a component of decompression melting, possibly due to the development of gravitational instabilities. The preservation of large (226)Ra disequilibria permits only a short period of time between fluid addition and eruption. This requires rapid melt segregation, magma ascent by channelled flow and minimal residence time within the lithosphere. The evolution from basalt to basaltic andesite probably occurs rapidly during ascent or in magma reservoirs inferred from some geophysical data to lie within the lithospheric mantle. The flux across the Moho is broadly andesitic, and some magmas subsequently stall in more shallow crustal-level magma chambers, where they evolve to more differentiated compositions on time-scales of a few thousand years or less.

  8. REAL-TIME VIDEO SCALING BASED ON CONVOLUTION NEURAL NETWORK ARCHITECTURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S Safinaz

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, video super resolution techniques becomes mandatory requirements to get high resolution videos. Many super resolution techniques researched but still video super resolution or scaling is a vital challenge. In this paper, we have presented a real-time video scaling based on convolution neural network architecture to eliminate the blurriness in the images and video frames and to provide better reconstruction quality while scaling of large datasets from lower resolution frames to high resolution frames. We compare our outcomes with multiple exiting algorithms. Our extensive results of proposed technique RemCNN (Reconstruction error minimization Convolution Neural Network shows that our model outperforms the existing technologies such as bicubic, bilinear, MCResNet and provide better reconstructed motioning images and video frames. The experimental results shows that our average PSNR result is 47.80474 considering upscale-2, 41.70209 for upscale-3 and 36.24503 for upscale-4 for Myanmar dataset which is very high in contrast to other existing techniques. This results proves our proposed model real-time video scaling based on convolution neural network architecture’s high efficiency and better performance.

  9. Large-scale machine learning and evaluation platform for real-time traffic surveillance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eichel, Justin A.; Mishra, Akshaya; Miller, Nicholas; Jankovic, Nicholas; Thomas, Mohan A.; Abbott, Tyler; Swanson, Douglas; Keller, Joel

    2016-09-01

    In traffic engineering, vehicle detectors are trained on limited datasets, resulting in poor accuracy when deployed in real-world surveillance applications. Annotating large-scale high-quality datasets is challenging. Typically, these datasets have limited diversity; they do not reflect the real-world operating environment. There is a need for a large-scale, cloud-based positive and negative mining process and a large-scale learning and evaluation system for the application of automatic traffic measurements and classification. The proposed positive and negative mining process addresses the quality of crowd sourced ground truth data through machine learning review and human feedback mechanisms. The proposed learning and evaluation system uses a distributed cloud computing framework to handle data-scaling issues associated with large numbers of samples and a high-dimensional feature space. The system is trained using AdaBoost on 1,000,000 Haar-like features extracted from 70,000 annotated video frames. The trained real-time vehicle detector achieves an accuracy of at least 95% for 1/2 and about 78% for 19/20 of the time when tested on ˜7,500,000 video frames. At the end of 2016, the dataset is expected to have over 1 billion annotated video frames.

  10. Geometry and time scales of self-consistent orbits in a modified SU(2) model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jezek, D.M.; Hernandez, E.S.; Solari, H.G.

    1986-01-01

    We investigate the time-dependent Hartree-Fock flow pattern of a two-level many fermion system interacting via a two-body interaction which does not preserve the parity symmetry of standard SU(2) models. The geometrical features of the time-dependent Hartree-Fock energy surface are analyzed and a phase instability is clearly recognized. The time evolution of one-body observables along self-consistent and exact trajectories are examined together with the overlaps between both orbits. Typical time scales for the determinantal motion can be set and the validity of the time-dependent Hartree-Fock approach in the various regions of quasispin phase space is discussed

  11. Time-Sliced Perturbation Theory for Large Scale Structure I: General Formalism

    CERN Document Server

    Blas, Diego; Ivanov, Mikhail M.; Sibiryakov, Sergey

    2016-01-01

    We present a new analytic approach to describe large scale structure formation in the mildly non-linear regime. The central object of the method is the time-dependent probability distribution function generating correlators of the cosmological observables at a given moment of time. Expanding the distribution function around the Gaussian weight we formulate a perturbative technique to calculate non-linear corrections to cosmological correlators, similar to the diagrammatic expansion in a three-dimensional Euclidean quantum field theory, with time playing the role of an external parameter. For the physically relevant case of cold dark matter in an Einstein--de Sitter universe, the time evolution of the distribution function can be found exactly and is encapsulated by a time-dependent coupling constant controlling the perturbative expansion. We show that all building blocks of the expansion are free from spurious infrared enhanced contributions that plague the standard cosmological perturbation theory. This pave...

  12. Chaotic characteristic of electromagnetic radiation time series of coal or rock under different scales

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhen-Tang Liu; En-Lai Zhao; En-Yuan Wang; Jing Wang [China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou (China). School of Safety Engineering

    2009-02-15

    Based on chaos theory, the chaotic characteristics of electromagnetic radiation time series of coal or rock under different loads was studied. The results show that the correlation of electromagnetic radiation time series of small-scale coal or rock and coal mine converges to a stable saturation value, which shows that these electromagnetic radiation time series have chaos characteristics. When there is danger of coal seam burst, the value of the saturation correlation dimension D{sub 2} of the electromagnetic radiation time series is bigger and it changes greatly; when there is no danger, its value is smaller and changes smoothly. The change of saturation correlation of electromagnetic radiation time series can be used to forecast coal or rock dynamic disasters. 11 refs., 4 figs.

  13. Towards a High-resolution Time Scale for the Early Devonian

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dekkers, M. J.; da Silva, A. C.

    2017-12-01

    High-resolution time scales are crucial to understand Earth's history in detail. The construction of a robust geological time scale, however, inevitably becomes increasingly harder further back in time. Uncertainties associated with anchor radiometric ages increase in size, not speaking of the mere presence of suitable datable strata. However, durations of stages can be tightly constrained by making use of cyclic expressions in sediments, an approach that revolutionized the Cenozoic time scale. When precisely determined durations are stitched together, ultimately, a very precise time scale is the result. For the Mesozoic and Paleozoic an astronomical solution as a tuning target is not available but the dominant periods of eccentricity, obliquity and precession are reasonably well constrained for the entire Phanerozoic which enables their detection by means of spectral analysis. Eccentricity is time-invariant and is used as the prime building block. Here we focus on the Early Devonian, on its lowermost three stages: the Lochkovian, Pragian and Emsian. The uncertainties on the Devonian stage boundaries are currently in the order of several millions of years. The preservation of climatic cycles in diagenetically or even anchimetamorphically affected successions, however, is essential. The fit of spectral peak ratios with those calculated for orbital cycles, is classically used as a strong argument for a preserved climatic signal. Here we use primarily the low field magnetic susceptibility (MS) as proxy parameter, supported by gamma-ray spectrometry to test for consistency. Continuous Wavelet Transform, Evolutive Harmonic Analysis, Multitaper Method, and Average Spectral Misfit are used to reach an optimal astronomical interpretation. We report on classic Early Devonian sections from the Czech Republic: the Pozar-CS (Lochkovian and Pragian), Pod Barrandovem (Pragian and Lower Emsian), and Zlichov (Middle-Upper Emsian). Also a Middle-Upper Emsian section from the US

  14. Time-scales of hydrological forcing on the geochemistry and bacterial community structure of temperate peat soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nunes, Flavia L. D.; Aquilina, Luc; De Ridder, Jo; Francez, André-Jean; Quaiser, Achim; Caudal, Jean-Pierre; Vandenkoornhuyse, Philippe; Dufresne, Alexis

    2015-10-01

    Peatlands are an important global carbon reservoir. The continued accumulation of carbon in peatlands depends on the persistence of anoxic conditions, in part induced by water saturation, which prevents oxidation of organic matter, and slows down decomposition. Here we investigate how and over what time scales the hydrological regime impacts the geochemistry and the bacterial community structure of temperate peat soils. Peat cores from two sites having contrasting groundwater budgets were subjected to four controlled drought-rewetting cycles. Pore water geochemistry and metagenomic profiling of bacterial communities showed that frequent water table drawdown induced lower concentrations of dissolved carbon, higher concentrations of sulfate and iron and reduced bacterial richness and diversity in the peat soil and water. Short-term drought cycles (3-9 day frequency) resulted in different communities from continuously saturated environments. Furthermore, the site that has more frequently experienced water table drawdown during the last two decades presented the most striking shifts in bacterial community structure, altering biogeochemical functioning of peat soils. Our results suggest that the increase in frequency and duration of drought conditions under changing climatic conditions or water resource use can induce profound changes in bacterial communities, with potentially severe consequences for carbon storage in temperate peatlands.

  15. A unifying view of climate change in the Sahel linking intra-seasonal, interannual and longer time scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giannini, A; Salack, S; Gaye, A T; Lodoun, T; Ali, A; Ndiaye, O

    2013-01-01

    We propose a re-interpretation of the oceanic influence on the climate of the African Sahel that is consistent across observations, 20th century simulations and 21st century projections, and that resolves the uncertainty in projections of precipitation change in this region: continued warming of the global tropical oceans increases the threshold for convection, potentially drying tropical land, but this ‘upped ante’ can be met if sufficient moisture is supplied in monsoon flow. In this framework, the reversal to warming of the subtropical North Atlantic, which is now out-pacing warming of the global tropical oceans, provides that moisture, and explains the partial recovery in precipitation since persistent drought in the 1970s and 1980s. We find this recovery to result from increases in daily rainfall intensity, rather than in frequency, most evidently so in Senegal, the westernmost among the three Sahelian countries analyzed. Continuation of these observed trends is consistent with projections for an overall wetter Sahel, but more variable precipitation on all time scales, from intra-seasonal to multi-decadal. (letter)

  16. Fission time-scale in experiments and in multiple initiation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karamian, S. A., E-mail: karamian@nrmail.jinr.ru [Joint Institute for Nuclear Research (Russian Federation)

    2011-12-15

    Rate of fission for highly-excited nuclei is affected by the viscose character of the systemmotion in deformation coordinates as was reported for very heavy nuclei with Z{sub C} > 90. The long time-scale of fission can be described in a model of 'fission by diffusion' that includes an assumption of the overdamped diabatic motion. The fission-to-spallation ratio at intermediate proton energy could be influenced by the viscosity, as well. Within a novel approach of the present work, the cross examination of the fission probability, time-scales, and pre-fission neutron multiplicities is resulted in the consistent interpretation of a whole set of the observables. Earlier, different aspects could be reproduced in partial simulations without careful coordination.

  17. Introducing English and German versions of the Adolescent Time Attitude Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Worrell, Frank C; Mello, Zena R; Buhl, Monika

    2013-08-01

    In this study, the authors report on the development of English and German versions of the Adolescent Time Attitude Scale (ATAS). The ATAS consists of six subscales assessing Past Positive, Past Negative, Present Positive, Present Negative, Future Positive, and Future Negative time attitudes. The authors describe the development of the scales and present data on the reliability and structural validity of ATAS scores in samples of American (N = 300) and German (N = 316) adolescents. Internal consistency estimates for scores on the English and German versions of the ATAS were in the .70 to .80 range. Confirmatory factor analyses indicated that a six-factor structure yielded the best fit for scores and that the scores were invariant across samples.

  18. Chaos anticontrol and synchronization of three time scales brushless DC motor system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ge Zhengming; Cheng Juiwen; Chen Yensheng

    2004-01-01

    Chaos anticontrol of three time scale brushless dc motors and chaos synchronization of different order systems are studied. Nondimensional dynamic equations of three time scale brushless DC motor system are presented. Using numerical results, such as phase diagram, bifurcation diagram, and Lyapunov exponent, periodic and chaotic motions can be observed. By adding constant term, periodic square wave, the periodic triangle wave, the periodic sawtooth wave, and kx vertical bar x vertical bar term, to achieve anticontrol of chaotic or periodic systems, it is found that more chaotic phenomena of the system can be observed. Then, by coupled terms and linearization of error dynamics, we obtain the partial synchronization of two different order systems, i.e. brushless DC motor system and rate gyroscope system

  19. Ns-scaled time-gated fluorescence lifetime imaging for forensic document examination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Xin; Wang, Xinwei; Zhou, Yan

    2018-01-01

    A method of ns-scaled time-gated fluorescence lifetime imaging (TFLI) is proposed to distinguish different fluorescent substances in forensic document examination. Compared with Video Spectral Comparator (VSC) which can examine fluorescence intensity images only, TFLI can detect questioned documents like falsification or alteration. TFLI system can enhance weak signal by accumulation method. The two fluorescence intensity images of the interval delay time tg are acquired by ICCD and fitted into fluorescence lifetime image. The lifetimes of fluorescence substances are represented by different colors, which make it easy to detect the fluorescent substances and the sequence of handwritings. It proves that TFLI is a powerful tool for forensic document examination. Furthermore, the advantages of TFLI system are ns-scaled precision preservation and powerful capture capability.

  20. Modes of correlated angular motion in live cells across three distinct time scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harrison, Andrew W; Kenwright, David A; Woodman, Philip G; Allan, Victoria J; Waigh, Thomas A

    2013-01-01

    Particle tracking experiments with high speed digital microscopy yield the positions and trajectories of lipid droplets inside living cells. Angular correlation analysis shows that the lipid droplets have uncorrelated motion at short time scales (τ 10 ms, becomes persistent, indicating directed movement. The motion at all time scales is associated with the lipid droplets being tethered to and driven along the microtubule network. The point at which the angular correlation changes from anti-persistent to persistent motion corresponds to the cross over between sub-diffusive and super diffusive motion, as observed by mean square displacement analysis. Correct analysis of the angular correlations of the detector noise is found to be crucial in modelling the observed phenomena. (paper)

  1. Virtual water trade and time scales for loss of water sustainability: a comparative regional analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goswami, Prashant; Nishad, Shiv Narayan

    2015-03-20

    Assessment and policy design for sustainability in primary resources like arable land and water need to adopt long-term perspective; even small but persistent effects like net export of water may influence sustainability through irreversible losses. With growing consumption, this virtual water trade has become an important element in the water sustainability of a nation. We estimate and contrast the virtual (embedded) water trades of two populous nations, India and China, to present certain quantitative measures and time scales. Estimates show that export of embedded water alone can lead to loss of water sustainability. With the current rate of net export of water (embedded) in the end products, India is poised to lose its entire available water in less than 1000 years; much shorter time scales are implied in terms of water for production. The two cases contrast and exemplify sustainable and non-sustainable virtual water trade in long term perspective.

  2. Water Cycle Missions for the Next Decade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houser, P. R.

    2013-12-01

    The global water cycle describes the circulation of water as a vital and dynamic substance in its liquid, solid, and vapor phases as it moves through the atmosphere, oceans and land. Life in its many forms exists because of water, and modern civilization depends on learning how to live within the constraints imposed by the availability of water. The scientific challenge posed by the need to observe the global water cycle is to integrate in situ and space-borne observations to quantify the key water-cycle state variables and fluxes. The vision to address that challenge is a series of Earth observation missions that will measure the states, stocks, flows, and residence times of water on regional to global scales followed by a series of coordinated missions that will address the processes, on a global scale, that underlie variability and changes in water in all its three phases. The accompanying societal challenge is to foster the improved use of water data and information as a basis for enlightened management of water resources, to protect life and property from effects of extremes in the water cycle. A major change in thinking about water science that goes beyond its physics to include its role in ecosystems and society is also required. Better water-cycle observations, especially on the continental and global scales, will be essential. Water-cycle predictions need to be readily available globally to reduce loss of life and property caused by water-related natural hazards. Building on the 2007 Earth Science Decadal Survey, NASA's Plan for a Climate-Centric Architecture for Earth Observations and Applications from Space , and the 2012 Chapman Conference on Remote Sensing of the Terrestrial Water Cycle, a workshop was held in April 2013 to gather wisdom and determine how to prepare for the next generation of water cycle missions in support of the second Earth Science Decadal Survey. This talk will present the outcomes of the workshop including the intersection between

  3. A multi scale approximation solution for the time dependent Boltzmann-transport equation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merk, B.

    2004-03-01

    The basis of all transient simulations for nuclear reactor cores is the reliable calculation of the power production. The local power distribution is generally calculated by solving the space, time, energy and angle dependent neutron transport equation known as Boltzmann equation. The computation of exact solutions of the Boltzmann equation is very time consuming. For practical numerical simulations approximated solutions are usually unavoidable. The objective of this work is development of an effective multi scale approximation solution for the Boltzmann equation. Most of the existing methods are based on separation of space and time. The new suggested method is performed without space-time separation. This effective approximation solution is developed on the basis of an expansion for the time derivative of different approximations to the Boltzmann equation. The method of multiple scale expansion is used for the expansion of the time derivative, because the problem of the stiff time behaviour can't be expressed by standard expansion methods. This multiple scale expansion is used in this work to develop approximation solutions for different approximations of the Boltzmann equation, starting from the expansion of the point kinetics equations. The resulting analytic functions are used for testing the applicability and accuracy of the multiple scale expansion method for an approximation solution with 2 delayed neutron groups. The results are tested versus the exact analytical results for the point kinetics equations. Very good agreement between both solutions is obtained. The validity of the solution with 2 delayed neutron groups to approximate the behaviour of the system with 6 delayed neutron groups is demonstrated in an additional analysis. A strategy for a solution with 4 delayed neutron groups is described. A multiple scale expansion is performed for the space-time dependent diffusion equation for one homogenized cell with 2 delayed neutron groups. The result is

  4. Influence of the Time Scale on the Construction of Financial Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Emmert-Streib, Frank; Dehmer, Matthias

    2010-01-01

    BACKGROUND: In this paper we investigate the definition and formation of financial networks. Specifically, we study the influence of the time scale on their construction. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: For our analysis we use correlation-based networks obtained from the daily closing prices of stock market data. More precisely, we use the stocks that currently comprise the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and estimate financial networks where nodes correspond to stocks and edges correspon...

  5. A typology of time-scale mismatches and behavioral interventions to diagnose and solve conservation problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Robyn S.; Hardisty, David J.; Epanchin-Niell, Rebecca S.; Runge, Michael C.; Cottingham, Kathryn L.; Urban, Dean L.; Maguire, Lynn A.; Hastings, Alan; Mumby, Peter J.; Peters, Debra P.C.

    2016-01-01

    Ecological systems often operate on time scales significantly longer or shorter than the time scales typical of human decision making, which causes substantial difficulty for conservation and management in socioecological systems. For example, invasive species may move faster than humans can diagnose problems and initiate solutions, and climate systems may exhibit long-term inertia and short-term fluctuations that obscure learning about the efficacy of management efforts in many ecological systems. We adopted a management-decision framework that distinguishes decision makers within public institutions from individual actors within the social system, calls attention to the ways socioecological systems respond to decision makers’ actions, and notes institutional learning that accrues from observing these responses. We used this framework, along with insights from bedeviling conservation problems, to create a typology that identifies problematic time-scale mismatches occurring between individual decision makers in public institutions and between individual actors in the social or ecological system. We also considered solutions that involve modifying human perception and behavior at the individual level as a means of resolving these problematic mismatches. The potential solutions are derived from the behavioral economics and psychology literature on temporal challenges in decision making, such as the human tendency to discount future outcomes at irrationally high rates. These solutions range from framing environmental decisions to enhance the salience of long-term consequences, to using structured decision processes that make time scales of actions and consequences more explicit, to structural solutions aimed at altering the consequences of short-sighted behavior to make it less appealing. Additional application of these tools and long-term evaluation measures that assess not just behavioral changes but also associated changes in ecological systems are needed.

  6. A typology of time-scale mismatches and behavioral interventions to diagnose and solve conservation problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Robyn S; Hardisty, David J; Epanchin-Niell, Rebecca S; Runge, Michael C; Cottingham, Kathryn L; Urban, Dean L; Maguire, Lynn A; Hastings, Alan; Mumby, Peter J; Peters, Debra P C

    2016-02-01

    Ecological systems often operate on time scales significantly longer or shorter than the time scales typical of human decision making, which causes substantial difficulty for conservation and management in socioecological systems. For example, invasive species may move faster than humans can diagnose problems and initiate solutions, and climate systems may exhibit long-term inertia and short-term fluctuations that obscure learning about the efficacy of management efforts in many ecological systems. We adopted a management-decision framework that distinguishes decision makers within public institutions from individual actors within the social system, calls attention to the ways socioecological systems respond to decision makers' actions, and notes institutional learning that accrues from observing these responses. We used this framework, along with insights from bedeviling conservation problems, to create a typology that identifies problematic time-scale mismatches occurring between individual decision makers in public institutions and between individual actors in the social or ecological system. We also considered solutions that involve modifying human perception and behavior at the individual level as a means of resolving these problematic mismatches. The potential solutions are derived from the behavioral economics and psychology literature on temporal challenges in decision making, such as the human tendency to discount future outcomes at irrationally high rates. These solutions range from framing environmental decisions to enhance the salience of long-term consequences, to using structured decision processes that make time scales of actions and consequences more explicit, to structural solutions aimed at altering the consequences of short-sighted behavior to make it less appealing. Additional application of these tools and long-term evaluation measures that assess not just behavioral changes but also associated changes in ecological systems are needed. © 2015

  7. Correlated continuous-time random walks—scaling limits and Langevin picture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Magdziarz, Marcin; Metzler, Ralf; Szczotka, Wladyslaw; Zebrowski, Piotr

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we analyze correlated continuous-time random walks introduced recently by Tejedor and Metzler (2010 J. Phys. A: Math. Theor. 43 082002). We obtain the Langevin equations associated with this process and the corresponding scaling limits of their solutions. We prove that the limit processes are self-similar and display anomalous dynamics. Moreover, we extend the model to include external forces. Our results are confirmed by Monte Carlo simulations

  8. Molecular dynamics on diffusive time scales from the phase-field-crystal equation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Pak Yuen; Goldenfeld, Nigel; Dantzig, Jon

    2009-03-01

    We extend the phase-field-crystal model to accommodate exact atomic configurations and vacancies by requiring the order parameter to be non-negative. The resulting theory dictates the number of atoms and describes the motion of each of them. By solving the dynamical equation of the model, which is a partial differential equation, we are essentially performing molecular dynamics simulations on diffusive time scales. To illustrate this approach, we calculate the two-point correlation function of a fluid.

  9. Nonlinearities in Drug Release Process from Polymeric Microparticles: Long-Time-Scale Behaviour

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Simona Bacaita

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available A theoretical model of the drug release process from polymeric microparticles (a particular type of polymer matrix, through dispersive fractal approximation of motion, is built. As a result, the drug release process takes place through cnoidal oscillations modes of a normalized concentration field. This indicates that, in the case of long-time-scale evolutions, the drug particles assemble in a lattice of nonlinear oscillators occur macroscopically, through variations of drug concentration. The model is validated by experimental results.

  10. Chaos synchronization and parameter identification of three time scales brushless DC motor system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ge, Z.-M.; Cheng, J.-W.

    2005-01-01

    Chaotic anticontrol and chaos synchronization of brushless DC motor system are studied in this paper. Nondimensional dynamic equations of three time scale brushless DC motor system are presented. Using numerical results, such as phase diagram, bifurcation diagram, and Lyapunov exponent, periodic and chaotic motions can be observed. Then, chaos synchronization of two identical systems via additional inputs and Lyapunov stability theory are studied. And further, the parameter of the system is traced via adaptive control and random optimization method

  11. Scaling of black silicon processing time by high repetition rate femtosecond lasers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nava Giorgio

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Surface texturing of silicon substrates is performed by femtosecond laser irradiation at high repetition rates. Various fabrication parameters are optimized in order to achieve very high absorptance in the visible region from the micro-structured silicon wafer as compared to the unstructured one. A 70-fold reduction of the processing time is demonstrated by increasing the laser repetition rate from 1 kHz to 200 kHz. Further scaling up to 1 MHz can be foreseen.

  12. Time scales of foam stability in shallow conduits: Insights from analogue experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spina, L.; Scheu, B.; Cimarelli, C.; Arciniega-Ceballos, A.; Dingwell, D. B.

    2016-10-01

    Volcanic systems can exhibit periodical trends in degassing activity, characterized by a wide range of time scales. Understanding the dynamics that control such periodic behavior can provide a picture of the processes occurring in the feeding system. Toward this end, we analyzed the periodicity of outgassing in a series of decompression experiments performed on analogue material (argon-saturated silicone oil plus glass beads/fibers) scaled to serve as models of basaltic magma. To define the effects of liquid viscosity and crystal content on the time scale of outgassing, we investigated both: (1) pure liquid systems, at differing viscosities (100 and 1000 Pa s), and (2) particle-bearing suspensions (diluted and semidiluted). The results indicate that under dynamic conditions (e.g., decompressive bubble growth and fluid ascent within the conduit), the periodicity of foam disruption may be up to several orders of magnitude less than estimates based on the analysis of static conditions. This difference in foam disruption time scale is inferred to result from the contribution of bubble shear and bubble growth to inter-bubble film thinning. The presence of particles in the semidiluted regime is further linked to shorter bubble bursting times, likely resulting from contributions of the presence of a solid network and coalescence processes to the relative increase in bubble breakup rates. Finally, it is argued that these experiments represent a good analogue of gas-piston activity (i.e., the periodical rise-and-fall of a basaltic lava lake surface), implying a dominant role for shallow foam accumulation as a source process for these phenomena.

  13. Measurement of 14C time scale of the rings of a tree by accelerator mass spectrometry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oda, Hirotaka; Furukawa, Michiaki; Yonenobu, Hitoshi; Ikeda, Akiko; Nakamura, Toshio.

    1996-01-01

    14 C time scale is different from a histrical data in order that it is calculated by assuming that the concentration of 14 C in the sample has not been changed by age. The object of this work is to make clear the errors in measurement of 14 C time scale of the ring of a tree known the tree age. The every year ring of a Hinoki in Kiso, 950 years old, was used as a sample. The most external ring is determined as 1923 years old on the basis of the dendrochronology. The rings after 1120 years were used as the samples. α-cellulose, the most stable component in the structural components of cell of tree, was prepared from each ring. About 8 mg of α-cellulose was reduced to graphite to be measured by the tandem thoron analytic meter. The results obtained showed that 14 C time scale was older than that of the histrical data in the twelfth and thirteenth century, but it was more new than that of the histrical data from the late seventeenth to the middle of eighteenth century. The results were agreement with that of Stuiver and Pearson (1933). (S.Y.)

  14. Effects of moonlight on the capturability of frugivorous phyllostomid bats (Chiroptera: Phyllostomidae at different time scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco A. R. Mello

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Some bat species seem to be lunar phobic, i.e., they avoid flying in bright areas or during bright periods of the night; however, the evidence is still controversial. We think that part of this controversy comes from pooling data on bat captures and moonlight intensity according to broad categories, such as moon phases, which conceal the high variability among nights. Therefore, we used detailed, long-term field data on three phyllostomid bat species, in order to test the hypothesis of lunar phobia at two different time scales: 1 among nights, by pooling data of different nights according to moon phases and testing for differences in the distribution of captures; and 2 within a night, by analyzing the relationship between capturability and moonlight intensity (measured as illuminance in one-hour intervals for 29 individual nights. Although most captures of the studied bat species occurred in the first half of the night, their activity pattern varied largely among nights, and was not always unimodal as commonly assumed. At the larger time scale, all studied bat species showed evidence of lunar phobia, as they were more frequently captured on dark moon phases. Nevertheless, at the smaller time scale, only Carollia perspicillata (Linnaeus, 1758 was less frequently captured on brighter periods of the night. We propose that the unimodal activity pattern assumed for frugivorous phyllostomid bats may be an artifact of data organization, and that activity and lunar phobia are much more variable than previously assumed.

  15. Modeling and control of a large nuclear reactor. A three-time-scale approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shimjith, S.R. [Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai (India); Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Mumbai (India); Tiwari, A.P. [Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Mumbai (India); Bandyopadhyay, B. [Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai (India). IDP in Systems and Control Engineering

    2013-07-01

    Recent research on Modeling and Control of a Large Nuclear Reactor. Presents a three-time-scale approach. Written by leading experts in the field. Control analysis and design of large nuclear reactors requires a suitable mathematical model representing the steady state and dynamic behavior of the reactor with reasonable accuracy. This task is, however, quite challenging because of several complex dynamic phenomena existing in a reactor. Quite often, the models developed would be of prohibitively large order, non-linear and of complex structure not readily amenable for control studies. Moreover, the existence of simultaneously occurring dynamic variations at different speeds makes the mathematical model susceptible to numerical ill-conditioning, inhibiting direct application of standard control techniques. This monograph introduces a technique for mathematical modeling of large nuclear reactors in the framework of multi-point kinetics, to obtain a comparatively smaller order model in standard state space form thus overcoming these difficulties. It further brings in innovative methods for controller design for systems exhibiting multi-time-scale property, with emphasis on three-time-scale systems.

  16. Timing of Formal Phase Safety Reviews for Large-Scale Integrated Hazard Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massie, Michael J.; Morris, A. Terry

    2010-01-01

    Integrated hazard analysis (IHA) is a process used to identify and control unacceptable risk. As such, it does not occur in a vacuum. IHA approaches must be tailored to fit the system being analyzed. Physical, resource, organizational and temporal constraints on large-scale integrated systems impose additional direct or derived requirements on the IHA. The timing and interaction between engineering and safety organizations can provide either benefits or hindrances to the overall end product. The traditional approach for formal phase safety review timing and content, which generally works well for small- to moderate-scale systems, does not work well for very large-scale integrated systems. This paper proposes a modified approach to timing and content of formal phase safety reviews for IHA. Details of the tailoring process for IHA will describe how to avoid temporary disconnects in major milestone reviews and how to maintain a cohesive end-to-end integration story particularly for systems where the integrator inherently has little to no insight into lower level systems. The proposal has the advantage of allowing the hazard analysis development process to occur as technical data normally matures.

  17. Multiple time scale analysis of sediment and runoff changes in the Lower Yellow River

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Chi

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Sediment and runoff changes of seven hydrological stations along the Lower Yellow River (LYR (Huayuankou Station, Jiahetan Station, Gaocun Station, Sunkou Station, Ai Shan Station, Qikou Station and Lijin Station from 1980 to 2003 were alanyzed at multiple time scale. The maximum value of monthly, daily and hourly sediment load and runoff conservations were also analyzed with the annually mean value. Mann–Kendall non-parametric mathematics correlation test and Hurst coefficient method were adopted in the study. Research results indicate that (1 the runoff of seven hydrological stations was significantly reduced in the study period at different time scales. However, the trends of sediment load in these stations were not obvious. The sediment load of Huayuankou, Jiahetan and Aishan stations even slightly increased with the runoff decrease. (2 The trends of the sediment load with different time scale showed differences at Luokou and Lijin stations. Although the annually and monthly sediment load were broadly flat, the maximum hourly sediment load showed decrease trend. (3 According to the Hurst coefficients, the trend of sediment and runoff will be continue without taking measures, which proved the necessary of runoff-sediment regulation scheme.

  18. Incipient multiple fault diagnosis in real time with applications to large-scale systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chung, H.Y.; Bien, Z.; Park, J.H.; Seon, P.H.

    1994-01-01

    By using a modified signed directed graph (SDG) together with the distributed artificial neutral networks and a knowledge-based system, a method of incipient multi-fault diagnosis is presented for large-scale physical systems with complex pipes and instrumentations such as valves, actuators, sensors, and controllers. The proposed method is designed so as to (1) make a real-time incipient fault diagnosis possible for large-scale systems, (2) perform the fault diagnosis not only in the steady-state case but also in the transient case as well by using a concept of fault propagation time, which is newly adopted in the SDG model, (3) provide with highly reliable diagnosis results and explanation capability of faults diagnosed as in an expert system, and (4) diagnose the pipe damage such as leaking, break, or throttling. This method is applied for diagnosis of a pressurizer in the Kori Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) unit 2 in Korea under a transient condition, and its result is reported to show satisfactory performance of the method for the incipient multi-fault diagnosis of such a large-scale system in a real-time manner

  19. A Real-Time Analysis Method for Pulse Rate Variability Based on Improved Basic Scale Entropy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongxin Chou

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Base scale entropy analysis (BSEA is a nonlinear method to analyze heart rate variability (HRV signal. However, the time consumption of BSEA is too long, and it is unknown whether the BSEA is suitable for analyzing pulse rate variability (PRV signal. Therefore, we proposed a method named sliding window iterative base scale entropy analysis (SWIBSEA by combining BSEA and sliding window iterative theory. The blood pressure signals of healthy young and old subjects are chosen from the authoritative international database MIT/PhysioNet/Fantasia to generate PRV signals as the experimental data. Then, the BSEA and the SWIBSEA are used to analyze the experimental data; the results show that the SWIBSEA reduces the time consumption and the buffer cache space while it gets the same entropy as BSEA. Meanwhile, the changes of base scale entropy (BSE for healthy young and old subjects are the same as that of HRV signal. Therefore, the SWIBSEA can be used for deriving some information from long-term and short-term PRV signals in real time, which has the potential for dynamic PRV signal analysis in some portable and wearable medical devices.

  20. Simple Kinematic Pathway Approach (KPA) to Catchment-scale Travel Time and Water Age Distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soltani, S. S.; Cvetkovic, V.; Destouni, G.

    2017-12-01

    The distribution of catchment-scale water travel times is strongly influenced by morphological dispersion and is partitioned between hillslope and larger, regional scales. We explore whether hillslope travel times are predictable using a simple semi-analytical "kinematic pathway approach" (KPA) that accounts for dispersion on two levels of morphological and macro-dispersion. The study gives new insights to shallow (hillslope) and deep (regional) groundwater travel times by comparing numerical simulations of travel time distributions, referred to as "dynamic model", with corresponding KPA computations for three different real catchment case studies in Sweden. KPA uses basic structural and hydrological data to compute transient water travel time (forward mode) and age (backward mode) distributions at the catchment outlet. Longitudinal and morphological dispersion components are reflected in KPA computations by assuming an effective Peclet number and topographically driven pathway length distributions, respectively. Numerical simulations of advective travel times are obtained by means of particle tracking using the fully-integrated flow model MIKE SHE. The comparison of computed cumulative distribution functions of travel times shows significant influence of morphological dispersion and groundwater recharge rate on the compatibility of the "kinematic pathway" and "dynamic" models. Zones of high recharge rate in "dynamic" models are associated with topographically driven groundwater flow paths to adjacent discharge zones, e.g. rivers and lakes, through relatively shallow pathway compartments. These zones exhibit more compatible behavior between "dynamic" and "kinematic pathway" models than the zones of low recharge rate. Interestingly, the travel time distributions of hillslope compartments remain almost unchanged with increasing recharge rates in the "dynamic" models. This robust "dynamic" model behavior suggests that flow path lengths and travel times in shallow

  1. A Bayesian method for construction of Markov models to describe dynamics on various time-scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rains, Emily K; Andersen, Hans C

    2010-10-14

    The dynamics of many biological processes of interest, such as the folding of a protein, are slow and complicated enough that a single molecular dynamics simulation trajectory of the entire process is difficult to obtain in any reasonable amount of time. Moreover, one such simulation may not be sufficient to develop an understanding of the mechanism of the process, and multiple simulations may be necessary. One approach to circumvent this computational barrier is the use of Markov state models. These models are useful because they can be constructed using data from a large number of shorter simulations instead of a single long simulation. This paper presents a new Bayesian method for the construction of Markov models from simulation data. A Markov model is specified by (τ,P,T), where τ is the mesoscopic time step, P is a partition of configuration space into mesostates, and T is an N(P)×N(P) transition rate matrix for transitions between the mesostates in one mesoscopic time step, where N(P) is the number of mesostates in P. The method presented here is different from previous Bayesian methods in several ways. (1) The method uses Bayesian analysis to determine the partition as well as the transition probabilities. (2) The method allows the construction of a Markov model for any chosen mesoscopic time-scale τ. (3) It constructs Markov models for which the diagonal elements of T are all equal to or greater than 0.5. Such a model will be called a "consistent mesoscopic Markov model" (CMMM). Such models have important advantages for providing an understanding of the dynamics on a mesoscopic time-scale. The Bayesian method uses simulation data to find a posterior probability distribution for (P,T) for any chosen τ. This distribution can be regarded as the Bayesian probability that the kinetics observed in the atomistic simulation data on the mesoscopic time-scale τ was generated by the CMMM specified by (P,T). An optimization algorithm is used to find the most

  2. Precipitation Analysis at Fine Time Scales Using Multiple Satellites: Real-time and Research Products and Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adler, Robert; Huffman, George; Bolvin, David; Nelkin, Eric; Curtis, Scott; Pierce, Harold

    2004-01-01

    Quasi-global precipitation analyses at fine time scales (3-hr) are described. TRMM observations (radar and passive microwave) are used to calibrate polar-orbit microwave observations from SSM/I (and other satellites instruments, including AMSR and AMSU) and geosynchronous IR observations. The individual data sets are then merged using a priority order based on quality to form the Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (MPA). Raingauge information is used to help constrain the satellite-based estimates over land. The TRMM standard research product (Version 6 3B-42 of the TRMM products) will be available for the entire TRMM period (January 1998-present) in 2004. The real-time version of this merged product has been produced over the past two years and is available on the U.S. TRMM web site (trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov) at 0.25" latitude-longitude resolution over the latitude range from 5O"N-5O0S. Validation of daily totals indicates good results, with limitations noted in mid-latitude winter over land and regions of shallow, orographic precipitation. Various applications of these estimates are described, including: 1) detecting potential floods in near real-time; 2) analyzing Indian Ocean precipitation variations related to the initiation of El Nino; 3) determining characteristics of the African monsoon; and 4) analysis of diurnal variations.

  3. Precipitation Analysis at Fine Time Scales using TRMM and Other Satellites: Real-time and Research Products and Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adler, Robert; Huffman, George; Bolvin, David; Nelkin, Eric; Curtis, Scott; Pierce, Harold; Gu, Guo-Jon

    2004-01-01

    Quasi-global precipitation analyses at fine time scales (3-hr) are described. TRMM observations (radar and passive microwave) are used to calibrate polar-orbit microwave observations from SSM/I (and other satellites instruments, including AMSR and AMSU) and geosynchronous IR observations. The individual data sets are then merged using a priority order based on quality to form the TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (MPA). Raingauge information is used to help constrain the satellite-based estimates over land. The TRMM standard research product (Version 6 3B-42 of the TRMM products) will be available for the entire TRMM period (January 1998-present) by the end of 2004. The real-time version of this merged product has been produced over the past two years and is available on the U.S. TRMM web site (trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov) at 0.25" latitude-longitude resolution over the latitude range from 5O0N-50"S. Validation of daily totals indicates good results, with limitations noted in mid-latitude winter over land and regions of shallow, orographic precipitation. Various applications of these estimates are described, includmg: 1) detecting potential floods in near real-time; 2) analyzing Indian Ocean precipitation variations related to the initiation of El Nino; 3) determining characteristics of the African monsoon; and 4) analysis of diurnal variations.

  4. Tracking and visualization of space-time activities for a micro-scale flu transmission study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Feng; Du, Fei

    2013-02-07

    Infectious diseases pose increasing threats to public health with increasing population density and more and more sophisticated social networks. While efforts continue in studying the large scale dissemination of contagious diseases, individual-based activity and behaviour study benefits not only disease transmission modelling but also the control, containment, and prevention decision making at the local scale. The potential for using tracking technologies to capture detailed space-time trajectories and model individual behaviour is increasing rapidly, as technological advances enable the manufacture of small, lightweight, highly sensitive, and affordable receivers and the routine use of location-aware devices has become widespread (e.g., smart cellular phones). The use of low-cost tracking devices in medical research has also been proved effective by more and more studies. This study describes the use of tracking devices to collect data of space-time trajectories and the spatiotemporal processing of such data to facilitate micro-scale flu transmission study. We also reports preliminary findings on activity patterns related to chances of influenza infection in a pilot study. Specifically, this study employed A-GPS tracking devices to collect data on a university campus. Spatiotemporal processing was conducted for data cleaning and segmentation. Processed data was validated with traditional activity diaries. The A-GPS data set was then used for visual explorations including density surface visualization and connection analysis to examine space-time activity patterns in relation to chances of influenza infection. When compared to diary data, the segmented tracking data demonstrated to be an effective alternative and showed greater accuracies in time as well as the details of routes taken by participants. A comparison of space-time activity patterns between participants who caught seasonal influenza and those who did not revealed interesting patterns. This study

  5. Residence time distribution measurements in a pilot-scale poison tank using radiotracer technique.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pant, H J; Goswami, Sunil; Samantray, J S; Sharma, V K; Maheshwari, N K

    2015-09-01

    Various types of systems are used to control the reactivity and shutting down of a nuclear reactor during emergency and routine shutdown operations. Injection of boron solution (borated water) into the core of a reactor is one of the commonly used methods during emergency operation. A pilot-scale poison tank was designed and fabricated to simulate injection of boron poison into the core of a reactor along with coolant water. In order to design a full-scale poison tank, it was desired to characterize flow of liquid from the tank. Residence time distribution (RTD) measurement and analysis was adopted to characterize the flow dynamics. Radiotracer technique was applied to measure RTD of aqueous phase in the tank using Bromine-82 as a radiotracer. RTD measurements were carried out with two different modes of operation of the tank and at different flow rates. In Mode-1, the radiotracer was instantaneously injected at the inlet and monitored at the outlet, whereas in Mode-2, the tank was filled with radiotracer and its concentration was measured at the outlet. From the measured RTD curves, mean residence times (MRTs), dead volume and fraction of liquid pumped in with time were determined. The treated RTD curves were modeled using suitable mathematical models. An axial dispersion model with high degree of backmixing was found suitable to describe flow when operated in Mode-1, whereas a tanks-in-series model with backmixing was found suitable to describe flow of the poison in the tank when operated in Mode-2. The results were utilized to scale-up and design a full-scale poison tank for a nuclear reactor. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Analytical Solutions for Multi-Time Scale Fractional Stochastic Differential Equations Driven by Fractional Brownian Motion and Their Applications

    OpenAIRE

    Xiao-Li Ding; Juan J. Nieto

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate analytical solutions of multi-time scale fractional stochastic differential equations driven by fractional Brownian motions. We firstly decompose homogeneous multi-time scale fractional stochastic differential equations driven by fractional Brownian motions into independent differential subequations, and give their analytical solutions. Then, we use the variation of constant parameters to obtain the solutions of nonhomogeneous multi-time scale fractional stochast...

  7. Using Citizen Science Observations to Model Species Distributions Over Space, Through Time, and Across Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelling, S.

    2017-12-01

    The goal of Biodiversity research is to identify, explain, and predict why a species' distribution and abundance vary through time, space, and with features of the environment. Measuring these patterns and predicting their responses to change are not exercises in curiosity. Today, they are essential tasks for understanding the profound effects that humans have on earth's natural systems, and for developing science-based environmental policies. To gain insight about species' distribution patterns requires studying natural systems at appropriate scales, yet studies of ecological processes continue to be compromised by inadequate attention to scale issues. How spatial and temporal patterns in nature change with scale often reflects fundamental laws of physics, chemistry, or biology, and we can identify such basic, governing laws only by comparing patterns over a wide range of scales. This presentation will provide several examples that integrate bird observations made by volunteers, with NASA Earth Imagery using Big Data analysis techniques to analyze the temporal patterns of bird occurrence across scales—from hemisphere-wide views of bird distributions to the impact of powerful city lights on bird migration.

  8. Valuing Treatments for Parkinson Disease Incorporating Process Utility: Performance of Best-Worst Scaling, Time Trade-Off, and Visual Analogue Scales

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weernink, Marieke Geertruida Maria; Groothuis-Oudshoorn, Catharina Gerarda Maria; IJzerman, Maarten Joost; van Til, Janine Astrid

    2016-01-01

    Objective The objective of this study was to compare treatment profiles including both health outcomes and process characteristics in Parkinson disease using best-worst scaling (BWS), time trade-off (TTO), and visual analogue scales (VAS). Methods From the model comprising of seven attributes with

  9. The second decade

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Amini

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available   It is ten years since the Iranian Journal of Physics Research has been in publication. For the Occasion of the 10th anniversary of its publication, we have planned several changes and modifications. These includes increasing the annual issues to four and omission of Introduction of Previously-Published Papers in International Journals section. In this article some statistical information of the published articles is given together with the index of the journals referees. As we enter the second decade of our publication, we face several questions. In this article we share these questions with our readers in the hope of finding the best possible solutions, so that we would be able to publish a better journal in future.

  10. One decade after Chernobyl

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harrison, J.R.

    1996-01-01

    The European Commission, the International Atomic Energy Agency and the World Health Organization, in cooperation with other international organisations, sponsored a major conference in Vienna in April 1996. The conference, One Decade After Chernobyl: Summing Up the Consequences of the Accident, was attended by more than 800 delegates from over 70 countries and organisations. The increasing incidence of childhood thyroid cancer and the major psychological stress reaction of the relocated populations show that the aftermath of the accident is not yet at an end. Nevertheless, the conference was an excellent opportunity for politicians and scientists of the affected republics to report on these issues and for the overall consequences to be put into perspective. (Author)

  11. Nuclear magnetic resonance provides a quantitative description of protein conformational flexibility on physiologically important time scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salmon, Loïc; Bouvignies, Guillaume; Markwick, Phineus; Blackledge, Martin

    2011-04-12

    A complete description of biomolecular activity requires an understanding of the nature and the role of protein conformational dynamics. In recent years, novel nuclear magnetic resonance-based techniques that provide hitherto inaccessible detail concerning biomolecular motions occurring on physiologically important time scales have emerged. Residual dipolar couplings (RDCs) provide precise information about time- and ensemble-averaged structural and dynamic processes with correlation times up to the millisecond and thereby encode key information for understanding biological activity. In this review, we present the application of two very different approaches to the quantitative description of protein motion using RDCs. The first is purely analytical, describing backbone dynamics in terms of diffusive motions of each peptide plane, using extensive statistical analysis to validate the proposed dynamic modes. The second is based on restraint-free accelerated molecular dynamics simulation, providing statistically sampled free energy-weighted ensembles that describe conformational fluctuations occurring on time scales from pico- to milliseconds, at atomic resolution. Remarkably, the results from these two approaches converge closely in terms of distribution and absolute amplitude of motions, suggesting that this kind of combination of analytical and numerical models is now capable of providing a unified description of protein conformational dynamics in solution.

  12. US stock market efficiency over weekly, monthly, quarterly and yearly time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, E.; Aguilar-Cornejo, M.; Femat, R.; Alvarez-Ramirez, J.

    2014-11-01

    In financial markets, the weak form of the efficient market hypothesis implies that price returns are serially uncorrelated sequences. In other words, prices should follow a random walk behavior. Recent developments in evolutionary economic theory (Lo, 2004) have tailored the concept of adaptive market hypothesis (AMH) by proposing that market efficiency is not an all-or-none concept, but rather market efficiency is a characteristic that varies continuously over time and across markets. Within the AMH framework, this work considers the Dow Jones Index Average (DJIA) for studying the deviations from the random walk behavior over time. It is found that the market efficiency also varies over different time scales, from weeks to years. The well-known detrended fluctuation analysis was used for the characterization of the serial correlations of the return sequences. The results from the empirical showed that interday and intraday returns are more serially correlated than overnight returns. Also, some insights in the presence of business cycles (e.g., Juglar and Kuznets) are provided in terms of time variations of the scaling exponent.

  13. Transport on intermediate time scales in flows with cat's eye patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pöschke, Patrick; Sokolov, Igor M.; Zaks, Michael A.; Nepomnyashchy, Alexander A.

    2017-12-01

    We consider the advection-diffusion transport of tracers in a one-parameter family of plane periodic flows where the patterns of streamlines feature regions of confined circulation in the shape of "cat's eyes," separated by meandering jets with ballistic motion inside them. By varying the parameter, we proceed from the regular two-dimensional lattice of eddies without jets to the sinusoidally modulated shear flow without eddies. When a weak thermal noise is added, i.e., at large Péclet numbers, several intermediate time scales arise, with qualitatively and quantitatively different transport properties: depending on the parameter of the flow, the initial position of a tracer, and the aging time, motion of the tracers ranges from subdiffusive to superballistic. We report on results of extensive numerical simulations of the mean-squared displacement for different initial conditions in ordinary and aged situations. These results are compared with a theory based on a Lévy walk that describes the intermediate-time ballistic regime and gives a reasonable description of the behavior for a certain class of initial conditions. The interplay of the walk process with internal circulation dynamics in the trapped state results at intermediate time scales in nonmonotonic characteristics of aging not captured by the Lévy walk model.

  14. Time-resolved transglottal pressure measurements in a scaled up vocal fold model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ringenberg, Hunter; Krane, Michael; Rogers, Dylan; Misfeldt, Mitchel; Wei, Timothy

    2016-11-01

    Experimental measurements of flow through a scaled up dynamic human vocal fold model are presented. The simplified 10x scale vocal fold model from Krane, et al. (2007) was used to examine fundamental features of vocal fold oscillatory motion. Of particular interest was the temporal variation of transglottal pressure multiplied by the volume flow rate through the glottis throughout an oscillation cycle. Experiments were dynamically scaled to examine a range of frequencies, 100 - 200 Hz, corresponding to the male and female voice. By using water as the working fluid, very high resolution, both spatial and temporal resolution, was achieved. Time resolved movies of flow through symmetrically oscillating vocal folds will be presented. Both individual realizations as well as phase-averaged data will be shown. Key features, such as randomness and development time of the Coanda effect, vortex shedding, and volume flow rate data have been presented in previous APS-DFD meetings. This talk will focus more on the relation between the flow and aeroacoustics associated with vocal fold oscillations. Supported by the NIH.

  15. Modified multiple time scale method for solving strongly nonlinear damped forced vibration systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razzak, M. A.; Alam, M. Z.; Sharif, M. N.

    2018-03-01

    In this paper, modified multiple time scale (MTS) method is employed to solve strongly nonlinear forced vibration systems. The first-order approximation is only considered in order to avoid complexicity. The formulations and the determination of the solution procedure are very easy and straightforward. The classical multiple time scale (MS) and multiple scales Lindstedt-Poincare method (MSLP) do not give desire result for the strongly damped forced vibration systems with strong damping effects. The main aim of this paper is to remove these limitations. Two examples are considered to illustrate the effectiveness and convenience of the present procedure. The approximate external frequencies and the corresponding approximate solutions are determined by the present method. The results give good coincidence with corresponding numerical solution (considered to be exact) and also provide better result than other existing results. For weak nonlinearities with weak damping effect, the absolute relative error measures (first-order approximate external frequency) in this paper is only 0.07% when amplitude A = 1.5 , while the relative error gives MSLP method is surprisingly 28.81%. Furthermore, for strong nonlinearities with strong damping effect, the absolute relative error found in this article is only 0.02%, whereas the relative error obtained by MSLP method is 24.18%. Therefore, the present method is not only valid for weakly nonlinear damped forced systems, but also gives better result for strongly nonlinear systems with both small and strong damping effect.

  16. Long time scale hard X-ray variability in Seyfert 1 galaxies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markowitz, Alex Gary

    This dissertation examines the relationship between long-term X-ray variability characteristics, black hole mass, and luminosity of Seyfert 1 Active Galactic Nuclei. High dynamic range power spectral density functions (PSDs) have been constructed for six Seyfert 1 galaxies. These PSDs show "breaks" or characteristic time scales, typically on the order of a few days. There is resemblance to PSDs of lower-mass Galactic X-ray binaries (XRBs), with the ratios of putative black hole masses and variability time scales approximately the same (106--7) between the two classes of objects. The data are consistent with a linear correlation between Seyfert PSD break time scale and black hole mass estimate; the relation extrapolates reasonably well over 6--7 orders of magnitude to XRBs. All of this strengthens the case for a physical similarity between Seyfert galaxies and XRBs. The first six years of RXTE monitoring of Seyfert 1s have been systematically analyzed to probe hard X-ray variability on multiple time scales in a total of 19 Seyfert is in an expansion of the survey of Markowitz & Edelson (2001). Correlations between variability amplitude, luminosity, and black hole mass are explored, the data support the model of PSD movement with black hole mass suggested by the PSD survey. All of the continuum variability results are consistent with relatively more massive black holes hosting larger X-ray emission regions, resulting in 'slower' observed variability. Nearly all sources in the sample exhibit stronger variability towards softer energies, consistent with softening as they brighten. Direct time-resolved spectral fitting has been performed on continuous RXTE monitoring of seven Seyfert is to study long-term spectral variability and Fe Kalpha variability characteristics. The Fe Kalpha line displays a wide range of behavior but varies less strongly than the broadband continuum. Overall, however, there is no strong evidence for correlated variability between the line and

  17. Tides and Decadal Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ray, Richard D.

    2003-01-01

    This paper reviews the mechanisms by which oceanic tides and decadal variability in the oceans are connected. We distinguish between variability caused by tides and variability observed in the tides themselves. Both effects have been detected at some level. The most obvious connection with decadal timescales is through the 18.6-year precession of the moon's orbit plane. This precession gives rise to a small tide of the same period and to 18.6-year modulations in the phase and amplitudes of short-period tides. The 18.6-year "node tide" is very small, no more than 2 cm anywhere, and in sea level data it is dominated by the ocean's natural Variability. Some authors have naively attributed climate variations with periods near 19 years directly to the node tide, but the amplitude of the tide is too small for this mechanism to be operative. The more likely explanation (Loder and Garrett, JGR, 83, 1967-70, 1978) is that the 18.6-y modulations in short-period tides, especially h e principal tide M2, cause variations in ocean mixing, which is then observed in temperature and other climatic indicators. Tidally forced variability has also been proposed by some authors, either in response to occasional (and highly predictable) tidal extremes or as a nonlinear low-frequency oscillation caused by interactions between short-period tides. The former mechanism can produce only short-duration events hardly more significant than normal tidal ranges, but the latter mechanism can in principle induce low-frequency oscillations. The most recent proposal of this type is by Keeling and Whorf, who highlight the 1800-year spectral peak discovered by Bond et al. (1997). But the proposal appears contrived and should be considered, in the words of Munk et al. (2002), "as the most likely among unlikely candidates."

  18. Atomistic simulations of materials: Methods for accurate potentials and realistic time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tiwary, Pratyush

    This thesis deals with achieving more realistic atomistic simulations of materials, by developing accurate and robust force-fields, and algorithms for practical time scales. I develop a formalism for generating interatomic potentials for simulating atomistic phenomena occurring at energy scales ranging from lattice vibrations to crystal defects to high-energy collisions. This is done by fitting against an extensive database of ab initio results, as well as to experimental measurements for mixed oxide nuclear fuels. The applicability of these interactions to a variety of mixed environments beyond the fitting domain is also assessed. The employed formalism makes these potentials applicable across all interatomic distances without the need for any ambiguous splining to the well-established short-range Ziegler-Biersack-Littmark universal pair potential. We expect these to be reliable potentials for carrying out damage simulations (and molecular dynamics simulations in general) in nuclear fuels of varying compositions for all relevant atomic collision energies. A hybrid stochastic and deterministic algorithm is proposed that while maintaining fully atomistic resolution, allows one to achieve milliseconds and longer time scales for several thousands of atoms. The method exploits the rare event nature of the dynamics like other such methods, but goes beyond them by (i) not having to pick a scheme for biasing the energy landscape, (ii) providing control on the accuracy of the boosted time scale, (iii) not assuming any harmonic transition state theory (HTST), and (iv) not having to identify collective coordinates or interesting degrees of freedom. The method is validated by calculating diffusion constants for vacancy-mediated diffusion in iron metal at low temperatures, and comparing against brute-force high temperature molecular dynamics. We also calculate diffusion constants for vacancy diffusion in tantalum metal, where we compare against low-temperature HTST as well

  19. A new front-face optical cell for measuring weak fluorescent emissions with time resolution in the picosecond time scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gryczynski, Z; Bucci, E

    1993-11-01

    Recent developments of ultrafast fluorimeters allow measuring time-resolved fluorescence on the picosecond time scale. This implies one is able to monitor lifetimes and anisotropy decays of highly quenched systems and of systems that contain fluorophores having lifetimes in the subnanosecond range; both systems that emit weak signals. The combination of weak signals and very short lifetimes makes the measurements prone to distortions which are negligible in standard fluorescence experiments. To cope with these difficulties, we have designed a new optical cell for front-face optics which offers to the excitation beam a horizontal free liquid surface in the absence of interactions with optical windows. The new cell has been tested with probes of known lifetimes and anisotropies. It proved very useful in detecting tryptophan fluorescence in hemoglobin. If only diluted samples are available, which cannot be used in front-face optics, regular square geometry can still be utilized by inserting light absorbers into a cuvette of 1 cm path length.

  20. Multi-time scale Climate Informed Stochastic Hybrid Simulation-Optimization Model (McISH model) for Multi-Purpose Reservoir System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, M.; Lall, U.

    2013-12-01

    In order to mitigate the impacts of climate change, proactive management strategies to operate reservoirs and dams are needed. A multi-time scale climate informed stochastic model is developed to optimize the operations for a multi-purpose single reservoir by simulating decadal, interannual, seasonal and sub-seasonal variability. We apply the model to a setting motivated by the largest multi-purpose dam in N. India, the Bhakhra reservoir on the Sutlej River, a tributary of the Indus. This leads to a focus on timing and amplitude of the flows for the monsoon and snowmelt periods. The flow simulations are constrained by multiple sources of historical data and GCM future projections, that are being developed through a NSF funded project titled 'Decadal Prediction and Stochastic Simulation of Hydroclimate Over Monsoon Asia'. The model presented is a multilevel, nonlinear programming model that aims to optimize the reservoir operating policy on a decadal horizon and the operation strategy on an updated annual basis. The model is hierarchical, in terms of having a structure that two optimization models designated for different time scales are nested as a matryoshka doll. The two optimization models have similar mathematical formulations with some modifications to meet the constraints within that time frame. The first level of the model is designated to provide optimization solution for policy makers to determine contracted annual releases to different uses with a prescribed reliability; the second level is a within-the-period (e.g., year) operation optimization scheme that allocates the contracted annual releases on a subperiod (e.g. monthly) basis, with additional benefit for extra release and penalty for failure. The model maximizes the net benefit of irrigation, hydropower generation and flood control in each of the periods. The model design thus facilitates the consistent application of weather and climate forecasts to improve operations of reservoir systems. The

  1. Time and frequency domain analyses of the Hualien Large-Scale Seismic Test

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kabanda, John; Kwon, Oh-Sung; Kwon, Gunup

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Time- and frequency-domain analysis methods are verified against each other. • The two analysis methods are validated against Hualien LSST. • The nonlinear time domain (NLTD) analysis resulted in more realistic response. • The frequency domain (FD) analysis shows amplification at resonant frequencies. • The NLTD analysis requires significant modeling and computing time. - Abstract: In the nuclear industry, the equivalent-linear frequency domain analysis method has been the de facto standard procedure primarily due to the method's computational efficiency. This study explores the feasibility of applying the nonlinear time domain analysis method for the soil–structure-interaction analysis of nuclear power facilities. As a first step, the equivalency of the time and frequency domain analysis methods is verified through a site response analysis of one-dimensional soil, a dynamic impedance analysis of soil–foundation system, and a seismic response analysis of the entire soil–structure system. For the verifications, an idealized elastic soil–structure system is used to minimize variables in the comparison of the two methods. Then, the verified analysis methods are used to develop time and frequency domain models of Hualien Large-Scale Seismic Test. The predicted structural responses are compared against field measurements. The models are also analyzed with an amplified ground motion to evaluate discrepancies of the time and frequency domain analysis methods when the soil–structure system behaves beyond the elastic range. The analysis results show that the equivalent-linear frequency domain analysis method amplifies certain frequency bands and tends to result in higher structural acceleration than the nonlinear time domain analysis method. A comparison with field measurements shows that the nonlinear time domain analysis method better captures the frequency distribution of recorded structural responses than the frequency domain

  2. The Sensitivity of Income Polarization - Time, length of accounting periods, equivalence scales, and income definitions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Azhar, Hussain

    This study looks at polarization and its components’ sensitivity to assumptions about equivalence scales, income definition, ethical income distribution parameters, and the income accounting period. A representative sample of Danish individual incomes from 1984 to 2002 is utilised. Results show...... that polarization has increased over time, regardless of the applied measure, when the last part of the period is compared to the first part of the period. Primary causes being increased inequality (alienation) and faster income growth among high incomes relative to those in the middle of the distribution....... Increasing the accounting period confirms the reduction in inequality found for shorter periods, but polarization is virtually unchanged, because income group identification increases. Applying different equivalence scales does not change polarization ranking for different years, but identification ranks...

  3. Are characiform fishes Gondwanan in origin? Insights from a time-scaled molecular phylogeny of the Citharinoidei (Ostariophysi: Characiformes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jairo Arroyave

    Full Text Available Fishes of the order Characiformes are a diverse and economically important teleost clade whose extant members are found exclusively in African and Neotropical freshwaters. Although their transatlantic distribution has been primarily attributed to the Early Cretaceous fragmentation of western Gondwana, vicariance has not been tested with temporal information beyond that contained in their fragmentary fossil record and a recent time-scaled phylogeny focused on the African family Alestidae. Because members of the suborder Citharinoidei constitute the sister lineage to the entire remaining Afro-Neotropical characiform radiation, we inferred a time-calibrated molecular phylogeny of citharinoids using a popular Bayesian approach to molecular dating in order to assess the adequacy of current vicariance hypotheses and shed light on the early biogeographic history of characiform fishes. Given that the only comprehensive phylogenetic treatment of the Citharinoidei has been a morphology-based analysis published over three decades ago, the present study also provided an opportunity to further investigate citharinoid relationships and update the evolutionary framework that has laid the foundations for the current classification of the group. The inferred chronogram is robust to changes in calibration priors and suggests that the origins of citharinoids date back to the Turonian (ca 90 Ma of the Late Cretaceous. Most modern citharinoid genera, however, appear to have originated and diversified much more recently, mainly during the Miocene. By reconciling molecular-clock- with fossil-based estimates for the origins of the Characiformes, our results provide further support for the hypothesis that attributes the disjunct distribution of the order to the opening of the South Atlantic Ocean. The striking overlap in tempo of diversification and biogeographic patterns between citharinoids and the African-endemic family Alestidae suggests that their evolutionary

  4. Modelling accelerated degradation data using Wiener diffusion with a time scale transformation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitmore, G A; Schenkelberg, F

    1997-01-01

    Engineering degradation tests allow industry to assess the potential life span of long-life products that do not fail readily under accelerated conditions in life tests. A general statistical model is presented here for performance degradation of an item of equipment. The degradation process in the model is taken to be a Wiener diffusion process with a time scale transformation. The model incorporates Arrhenius extrapolation for high stress testing. The lifetime of an item is defined as the time until performance deteriorates to a specified failure threshold. The model can be used to predict the lifetime of an item or the extent of degradation of an item at a specified future time. Inference methods for the model parameters, based on accelerated degradation test data, are presented. The model and inference methods are illustrated with a case application involving self-regulating heating cables. The paper also discusses a number of practical issues encountered in applications.

  5. Multi-Time Scale Control of Demand Flexibility in Smart Distribution Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bhattarai, Bishnu P.; Myers, Kurt S.; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

    2017-01-01

    , and distribution system operator’s perspectives. A hierarchical control architecture (HCA) comprising scheduling, coordinative, and adaptive layers is then designed to realize their coordinative goal. This is realized by integrating multi-time scale controls that work from a day-ahead scheduling up to real-time...... adaptive control. The performance of the developed method is investigated with high EV penetration in a typical residential distribution grid. The simulation results demonstrate that HCA efficiently utilizes demand flexibility stemming from EVs to solve grid unbalancing and congestions with simultaneous...... maximization of economic benefits to the participating actors. This is ensured by enabling EV participation in day-ahead, balancing, and regulation markets. For the given network configuration and pricing structure, HCA ensures the EV owners to get paid up to five times the cost they were paying without...

  6. Separating different scales of motion in time series of meteorological variables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eskridge, R.E.; Rao, S.T.; Porter, P.S.

    1997-01-01

    In this study, four methods are evaluated for detecting and tracking changes in time series of climate variables. The PEST algorithm and the monthly anomaly technique are shown to have shortcomings, while the wavelet transform and Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter methods are shown to be capable of separating time scales with minimal errors. The behavior of the filters are examined by transfer functions. The KZ filter, anomaly technique, and PEST were also applied to temperature data to estimate long-term trends. The KZ filter provides estimates with about 10 times higher confidence than the other methods. Advantages of the KZ filter over the wavelet transform method are that it may be applied to datasets containing missing observations and is very easy to use. 10 refs., 8 figs., 1 tab

  7. Mean-cluster approach indicates cell sorting time scales are determined by collective dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beatrici, Carine P.; de Almeida, Rita M. C.; Brunnet, Leonardo G.

    2017-03-01

    Cell migration is essential to cell segregation, playing a central role in tissue formation, wound healing, and tumor evolution. Considering random mixtures of two cell types, it is still not clear which cell characteristics define clustering time scales. The mass of diffusing clusters merging with one another is expected to grow as td /d +2 when the diffusion constant scales with the inverse of the cluster mass. Cell segregation experiments deviate from that behavior. Explanations for that could arise from specific microscopic mechanisms or from collective effects, typical of active matter. Here we consider a power law connecting diffusion constant and cluster mass to propose an analytic approach to model cell segregation where we explicitly take into account finite-size corrections. The results are compared with active matter model simulations and experiments available in the literature. To investigate the role played by different mechanisms we considered different hypotheses describing cell-cell interaction: differential adhesion hypothesis and different velocities hypothesis. We find that the simulations yield normal diffusion for long time intervals. Analytic and simulation results show that (i) cluster evolution clearly tends to a scaling regime, disrupted only at finite-size limits; (ii) cluster diffusion is greatly enhanced by cell collective behavior, such that for high enough tendency to follow the neighbors, cluster diffusion may become independent of cluster size; (iii) the scaling exponent for cluster growth depends only on the mass-diffusion relation, not on the detailed local segregation mechanism. These results apply for active matter systems in general and, in particular, the mechanisms found underlying the increase in cell sorting speed certainly have deep implications in biological evolution as a selection mechanism.

  8. Scale size and life time of energy conversion regions observed by Cluster in the plasma sheet

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Hamrin

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available In this article, and in a companion paper by Hamrin et al. (2009 [Occurrence and location of concentrated load and generator regions observed by Cluster in the plasma sheet], we investigate localized energy conversion regions (ECRs in Earth's plasma sheet. From more than 80 Cluster plasma sheet crossings (660 h data at the altitude of about 15–20 RE in the summer and fall of 2001, we have identified 116 Concentrated Load Regions (CLRs and 35 Concentrated Generator Regions (CGRs. By examining variations in the power density, E·J, where E is the electric field and J is the current density obtained by Cluster, we have estimated typical values of the scale size and life time of the CLRs and the CGRs. We find that a majority of the observed ECRs are rather stationary in space, but varying in time. Assuming that the ECRs are cylindrically shaped and equal in size, we conclude that the typical scale size of the ECRs is 2 RE≲ΔSECR≲5 RE. The ECRs hence occupy a significant portion of the mid altitude plasma sheet. Moreover, the CLRs appear to be somewhat larger than the CGRs. The life time of the ECRs are of the order of 1–10 min, consistent with the large scale magnetotail MHD simulations of Birn and Hesse (2005. The life time of the CGRs is somewhat shorter than for the CLRs. On time scales of 1–10 min, we believe that ECRs rise and vanish in significant regions of the plasma sheet, possibly oscillating between load and generator character. It is probable that at least some of the observed ECRs oscillate energy back and forth in the plasma sheet instead of channeling it to the ionosphere.

  9. Atmospheric River Characteristics under Decadal Climate Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Done, J.; Ge, M.

    2017-12-01

    How does decadal climate variability change the nature and predictability of atmospheric river events? Decadal swings in atmospheric river frequency, or shifts in the proportion of precipitation falling as rain, could challenge current water resource and flood risk management practice. Physical multi-scale processes operating between Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and atmospheric rivers over the Western U.S. are explored using the global Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS). A 45km global mesh is refined over the Western U.S. to 12km to capture the major terrain effects on precipitation. The performance of the MPAS is first evaluated for a case study atmospheric river event over California. Atmospheric river characteristics are then compared in a pair of idealized simulations, each driven by Pacific SST patterns characteristic of opposite phases of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Given recent evidence that we have entered a positive phase of the IPO, implications for current reservoir management practice over the next decade will be discussed. This work contributes to the NSF-funded project UDECIDE (Understanding Decision-Climate Interactions on Decadal Scales). UDECIDE brings together practitioners, engineers, statisticians, and climate scientists to understand the role of decadal climate information for water management and decisions.

  10. Dry-wet variations and cause analysis in Northeast China at multi-time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Qi; Pan, Feifei; Pan, Xuebiao; Hu, Liting; Wang, Xiaoxiao; Yang, Pengyu; Wei, Pei; Pan, Zhihua

    2017-07-01

    Global warming has caused unevenly distributed changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration, which has and will certainly impact on the wet-dry variations. Based on daily meteorological data collected at 91 weather stations in Northeast China (NEC), the spatiotemporal characteristics of dry and wet climatic variables (precipitation, crop reference evapotranspiration (ET0), and humid index (HI)) are analyzed, and the probable reasons causing the changes in these variables are discussed during the period of 1961-2014. Precipitation showed non-significant trend over the period of 1961-2014, while ET0 showed a significant decreasing trend, which led to climate wetting in NEC. The period of 2001-2012 exhibited smaller semiarid area and larger humid area compared to the period of 1961-1980, indicating NEC has experienced wetting process at decadal scale. ET0 was most sensitive to relative humidity, and wind speed was the second most sensitive variable. Sunshine hours and temperature were found to be less influential to ET0 in the study area. The changes in wind speed in the recent 54 years have caused the greatest influence on ET0, followed by temperature. For each month, wind speed was the most significant variable causing ET0 reduction in all months except July. Temperature, as a dominant factor, made a positive contribution to ET0 in February and March, as well as sunshine hours in June and July, and relative humidity in August and September. In summary, NEC has experienced noticeable climate wetting due to the significantly decreasing ET0, and the decrease in wind speed was the biggest contributor for the ET0 reduction. Although agricultural drought crisis is expected to be partly alleviated, regional water resources management and planning in Northeast China should consider the potential water shortage and water conflict in the future because of spatiotemporal dry-wet variations in NEC.

  11. Similar star formation rate and metallicity variability time-scales drive the fundamental metallicity relation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torrey, Paul; Vogelsberger, Mark; Hernquist, Lars; McKinnon, Ryan; Marinacci, Federico; Simcoe, Robert A.; Springel, Volker; Pillepich, Annalisa; Naiman, Jill; Pakmor, Rüdiger; Weinberger, Rainer; Nelson, Dylan; Genel, Shy

    2018-06-01

    The fundamental metallicity relation (FMR) is a postulated correlation between galaxy stellar mass, star formation rate (SFR), and gas-phase metallicity. At its core, this relation posits that offsets from the mass-metallicity relation (MZR) at a fixed stellar mass are correlated with galactic SFR. In this Letter, we use hydrodynamical simulations to quantify the time-scales over which populations of galaxies oscillate about the average SFR and metallicity values at fixed stellar mass. We find that Illustris and IllustrisTNG predict that galaxy offsets from the star formation main sequence and MZR oscillate over similar time-scales, are often anticorrelated in their evolution, evolve with the halo dynamical time, and produce a pronounced FMR. Our models indicate that galaxies oscillate about equilibrium SFR and metallicity values - set by the galaxy's stellar mass - and that SFR and metallicity offsets evolve in an anticorrelated fashion. This anticorrelated variability of the metallicity and SFR offsets drives the existence of the FMR in our models. In contrast to Illustris and IllustrisTNG, we speculate that the SFR and metallicity evolution tracks may become decoupled in galaxy formation models dominated by feedback-driven globally bursty SFR histories, which could weaken the FMR residual correlation strength. This opens the possibility of discriminating between bursty and non-bursty feedback models based on the strength and persistence of the FMR - especially at high redshift.

  12. Real-Time Monitoring System for a Utility-Scale Photovoltaic Power Plant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno-Garcia, Isabel M.; Palacios-Garcia, Emilio J.; Pallares-Lopez, Victor; Santiago, Isabel; Gonzalez-Redondo, Miguel J.; Varo-Martinez, Marta; Real-Calvo, Rafael J.

    2016-01-01

    There is, at present, considerable interest in the storage and dispatchability of photovoltaic (PV) energy, together with the need to manage power flows in real-time. This paper presents a new system, PV-on time, which has been developed to supervise the operating mode of a Grid-Connected Utility-Scale PV Power Plant in order to ensure the reliability and continuity of its supply. This system presents an architecture of acquisition devices, including wireless sensors distributed around the plant, which measure the required information. It is also equipped with a high-precision protocol for synchronizing all data acquisition equipment, something that is necessary for correctly establishing relationships among events in the plant. Moreover, a system for monitoring and supervising all of the distributed devices, as well as for the real-time treatment of all the registered information, is presented. Performances were analyzed in a 400 kW transformation center belonging to a 6.1 MW Utility-Scale PV Power Plant. In addition to monitoring the performance of all of the PV plant’s components and detecting any failures or deviations in production, this system enables users to control the power quality of the signal injected and the influence of the installation on the distribution grid. PMID:27240365

  13. Size-selective sorting in bubble streaming flows: Particle migration on fast time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thameem, Raqeeb; Rallabandi, Bhargav; Hilgenfeldt, Sascha

    2015-11-01

    Steady streaming from ultrasonically driven microbubbles is an increasingly popular technique in microfluidics because such devices are easily manufactured and generate powerful and highly controllable flows. Combining streaming and Poiseuille transport flows allows for passive size-sensitive sorting at particle sizes and selectivities much smaller than the bubble radius. The crucial particle deflection and separation takes place over very small times (milliseconds) and length scales (20-30 microns) and can be rationalized using a simplified geometric mechanism. A quantitative theoretical description is achieved through the application of recent results on three-dimensional streaming flow field contributions. To develop a more fundamental understanding of the particle dynamics, we use high-speed photography of trajectories in polydisperse particle suspensions, recording the particle motion on the time scale of the bubble oscillation. Our data reveal the dependence of particle displacement on driving phase, particle size, oscillatory flow speed, and streaming speed. With this information, the effective repulsive force exerted by the bubble on the particle can be quantified, showing for the first time how fast, selective particle migration is effected in a streaming flow. We acknowledge support by the National Science Foundation under grant number CBET-1236141.

  14. Influence of reaction time on the structure of polyaniline synthesized on a pre-pilot scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Alice Carvalho Mazzeu

    Full Text Available Abstract The aim of this work is to follow the structural variations of polyaniline (PAni obtained by chemical oxidation on a pre-pilot scale, with different reaction times. Synthesis of PAni is well known, but when it is carried out on a pre-pilot scale, several factors can lead to structural changes and understanding these changes is important to improve controls on the synthesis process. The polymers formed were characterized by spectroscopic techniques (Raman spectroscopy, Fourier Transform Infrared - FTIR and UV-Visible. Degree of oxidation and yield were calculated for each reaction time. The analysis by FTIR, the calculated degree of oxidation and the yield showed significant changes in polymer structure at reaction times of 65 and 80 min. This result was attributed to the excessive oxidation of PAni, with the breaking of its polymer chain. The changes observed in the structure of PAni gave subsidies to the optimization of the process of obtaining polyaniline by chemical synthesis.

  15. Multi-time-scale heat transfer modeling of turbid tissues exposed to short-pulsed irradiations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Kyunghan; Guo, Zhixiong

    2007-05-01

    A combined hyperbolic radiation and conduction heat transfer model is developed to simulate multi-time-scale heat transfer in turbid tissues exposed to short-pulsed irradiations. An initial temperature response of a tissue to an ultrashort pulse irradiation is analyzed by the volume-average method in combination with the transient discrete ordinates method for modeling the ultrafast radiation heat transfer. This response is found to reach pseudo steady state within 1 ns for the considered tissues. The single pulse result is then utilized to obtain the temperature response to pulse train irradiation at the microsecond/millisecond time scales. After that, the temperature field is predicted by the hyperbolic heat conduction model which is solved by the MacCormack's scheme with error terms correction. Finally, the hyperbolic conduction is compared with the traditional parabolic heat diffusion model. It is found that the maximum local temperatures are larger in the hyperbolic prediction than the parabolic prediction. In the modeled dermis tissue, a 7% non-dimensional temperature increase is found. After about 10 thermal relaxation times, thermal waves fade away and the predictions between the hyperbolic and parabolic models are consistent.

  16. Model based analysis of the time scales associated to pump start-ups

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dazin, Antoine, E-mail: antoine.dazin@lille.ensam.fr [Arts et métiers ParisTech/LML Laboratory UMR CNRS 8107, 8 bld Louis XIV, 59046 Lille cedex (France); Caignaert, Guy [Arts et métiers ParisTech/LML Laboratory UMR CNRS 8107, 8 bld Louis XIV, 59046 Lille cedex (France); Dauphin-Tanguy, Geneviève, E-mail: genevieve.dauphin-tanguy@ec-lille.fr [Univ Lille Nord de France, Ecole Centrale de Lille/CRISTAL UMR CNRS 9189, BP 48, 59651, Villeneuve d’Ascq cedex F 59000 (France)

    2015-11-15

    Highlights: • A dynamic model of a hydraulic system has been built. • Three periods in a pump start-up have been identified. • The time scales of each period have been estimated. • The parameters affecting the rapidity of a pump start-up have been explored. - Abstract: The paper refers to a non dimensional analysis of the behaviour of a hydraulic system during pump fast start-ups. The system is composed of a radial flow pump and its suction and delivery pipes. It is modelled using the bond graph methodology. The prediction of the model is validated by comparison to experimental results. An analysis of the time evolution of the terms acting on the total pump pressure is proposed. It allows for a decomposition of the start-up into three consecutive periods. The time scales associated with these periods are estimated. The effects of parameters (angular acceleration, final rotation speed, pipe length and resistance) affecting the start-up rapidity are then explored.

  17. Real-Time Monitoring System for a Utility-Scale Photovoltaic Power Plant.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno-Garcia, Isabel M; Palacios-Garcia, Emilio J; Pallares-Lopez, Victor; Santiago, Isabel; Gonzalez-Redondo, Miguel J; Varo-Martinez, Marta; Real-Calvo, Rafael J

    2016-05-26

    There is, at present, considerable interest in the storage and dispatchability of photovoltaic (PV) energy, together with the need to manage power flows in real-time. This paper presents a new system, PV-on time, which has been developed to supervise the operating mode of a Grid-Connected Utility-Scale PV Power Plant in order to ensure the reliability and continuity of its supply. This system presents an architecture of acquisition devices, including wireless sensors distributed around the plant, which measure the required information. It is also equipped with a high-precision protocol for synchronizing all data acquisition equipment, something that is necessary for correctly establishing relationships among events in the plant. Moreover, a system for monitoring and supervising all of the distributed devices, as well as for the real-time treatment of all the registered information, is presented. Performances were analyzed in a 400 kW transformation center belonging to a 6.1 MW Utility-Scale PV Power Plant. In addition to monitoring the performance of all of the PV plant's components and detecting any failures or deviations in production, this system enables users to control the power quality of the signal injected and the influence of the installation on the distribution grid.

  18. Two-time scale subordination in physical processes with long-term memory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stanislavsky, Aleksander; Weron, Karina

    2008-01-01

    We describe dynamical processes in continuous media with a long-term memory. Our consideration is based on a stochastic subordination idea and concerns two physical examples in detail. First we study a temporal evolution of the species concentration in a trapping reaction in which a diffusing reactant is surrounded by a sea of randomly moving traps. The analysis uses the random-variable formalism of anomalous diffusive processes. We find that the empirical trapping-reaction law, according to which the reactant concentration decreases in time as a product of an exponential and a stretched exponential function, can be explained by a two-time scale subordination of random processes. Another example is connected with a state equation for continuous media with memory. If the pressure and the density of a medium are subordinated in two different random processes, then the ordinary state equation becomes fractional with two-time scales. This allows one to arrive at the Bagley-Torvik type of state equation

  19. Real-Time Monitoring System for a Utility-Scale Photovoltaic Power Plant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabel M. Moreno-Garcia

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available There is, at present, considerable interest in the storage and dispatchability of photovoltaic (PV energy, together with the need to manage power flows in real-time. This paper presents a new system, PV-on time, which has been developed to supervise the operating mode of a Grid-Connected Utility-Scale PV Power Plant in order to ensure the reliability and continuity of its supply. This system presents an architecture of acquisition devices, including wireless sensors distributed around the plant, which measure the required information. It is also equipped with a high-precision protocol for synchronizing all data acquisition equipment, something that is necessary for correctly establishing relationships among events in the plant. Moreover, a system for monitoring and supervising all of the distributed devices, as well as for the real-time treatment of all the registered information, is presented. Performances were analyzed in a 400 kW transformation center belonging to a 6.1 MW Utility-Scale PV Power Plant. In addition to monitoring the performance of all of the PV plant’s components and detecting any failures or deviations in production, this system enables users to control the power quality of the signal injected and the influence of the installation on the distribution grid.

  20. Causes of decadal climate variability over the North Pacific and North America

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Latif, M.; Barnett, T.P.

    1994-01-01

    The cause of decadal climate variability over the North Pacific and North America is investigated by analyzing data from a multi-decadal integration with a state of the art coupled ocean-atmosphere model and observations. About one third of the low-frequency climate variability in the region of interest can be attributed to a cycle involving unstable air-sea interactions between the subtropical gyre circulation in the North Pacific and the Aleutian low pressure system. The existence of this cycle provides a basis for long-range climate forecasting over the western United States at decadal time scales. (orig.)