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Sample records for death products predict

  1. Circulating cell death products predict clinical outcome of colorectal cancer patients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koelink, Pim J; Lamers, Cornelis BHW; Hommes, Daan W; Verspaget, Hein W

    2009-01-01

    Tumor cell death generates products that can be measured in the circulation of cancer patients. CK18-Asp396 (M30 antigen) is a caspase-degraded product of cytokeratin 18 (CK18), produced by apoptotic epithelial cells, and is elevated in breast and lung cancer patients. We determined the CK18-Asp396 and total CK18 levels in plasma of 49 colorectal cancer patients, before and after surgical resection of the tumor, by ELISA. Correlations with patient and tumor characteristics were determined by Kruskal-Wallis H and Mann-Whitney U tests. Disease-free survival was determined using Kaplan-Meier methodology with Log Rank tests, and univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis. Plasma CK18-Asp396 and total CK18 levels in colorectal cancer patients were related to disease stage and tumor diameter, and were predictive of disease-free survival, independent of disease-stage, with hazard ratios (HR) of patients with high levels (> median) compared to those with low levels (≤ median) of 3.58 (95% CI: 1.17–11.02) and 3.58 (95% CI: 0.97–7.71), respectively. The CK18-Asp396/CK18 ratio, which decreased with tumor progression, was also predictive of disease-free survival, with a low ratio (≤ median) associated with worse disease-free survival: HR 2.78 (95% CI: 1.06–7.19). Remarkably, the plasma CK18-Asp396 and total CK18 levels after surgical removal of the tumor were also predictive of disease-free survival, with patients with high levels having a HR of 3.78 (95% CI: 0.77–18.50) and 4.12 (95% CI: 0.84–20.34), respectively, indicating that these parameters can be used also to monitor patients after surgery. CK18-Asp396 and total CK18 levels in the circulation of colorectal cancer patients are predictive of tumor progression and prognosis and might be helpful for treatment selection and monitoring of these patients

  2. Viewing Death on Television Increases the Appeal of Advertised Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    DAR-NIMROD, ILAN

    2012-01-01

    References to death abound in many television programs accessible to most people. Terror Management Theory (TMT) postulates that existential anxiety, which death reminders activate, may reinforce materialistic tendencies. The current paper explores the effect of a death reminder in television shows on the desirability of advertised products. Consistent with TMT's predictions, in two studies participants show greater desire for products, which were advertised immediately following clips from programs that featured a death scene, compared with programs that did not. Cognitive accessibility of death predicted the appeal difference while changes in affect or interest in the show did not. The findings are discussed in light on affective and existential theories which make opposite predictions. Implications and future directions are considered. PMID:22468421

  3. Viewing death on television increases the appeal of advertised products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dar-Nimrod, Ilan

    2012-01-01

    References to death abound in many television programs accessible to most people. Terror Management Theory postulates that existential anxiety, which death reminders activate, may reinforce materialistic tendencies. The current article explores the effect of a death reminder in television shows on the desirability of advertised products. Consistent with Terror Management Theory's predictions, in two studies participants show greater desire for products, which were advertised immediately following clips from programs that featured a death scene, compared with programs that did not. Cognitive accessibility of death predicted the appeal difference while changes in affect or interest in the show did not. The findings are discussed in light on affective and existential theories which make opposite predictions. Implications and future directions are considered.

  4. External validation of prediction models for time to death in potential donors after circulatory death

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kotsopoulos, A.M.M.; Böing-Messing, F.; Jansen, N.E.; Vos, P.; Abdo, W.F.

    2018-01-01

    Predicting time to death in controlled donation after circulatory death (cDCD) donors following withdrawal of life‐sustaining treatment (WLST) is important but poses a major challenge. The aim of this study is to determine factors predicting time to circulatory death within 60 minutes after WSLT and

  5. Predicting death from surgery for lung cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    O'Dowd, Emma L; Lüchtenborg, Margreet; Baldwin, David R

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: Current British guidelines advocate the use of risk prediction scores such as Thoracoscore to estimate mortality prior to radical surgery for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). A recent publication used the National Lung Cancer Audit (NLCA) to produce a score to predict 90day mortali...

  6. Predictive Factors associated with Death of Elderly in Nursing Homes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kiwol Sung, PhD, RN

    2014-06-01

    Conclusion: Dyspnea, problematic behaviors, and ADL data were identified as the key factors associated with death among nursing home residents. Future plans for the prediction of death among nursing home residents can be made by nursing staff, factoring in these identified variables, to ensure more comfortable conditions and more responsive care.

  7. Predictive Factors for Death After Snake Envenomation in Myanmar.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aye, Kyi-Phyu; Thanachartwet, Vipa; Soe, Chit; Desakorn, Varunee; Chamnanchanunt, Supat; Sahassananda, Duangjai; Supaporn, Thanom; Sitprija, Visith

    2018-06-01

    Factors predictive for death from snake envenomation vary between studies, possibly due to variation in host genetic factors and venom composition. This study aimed to evaluate predictive factors for death from snake envenomation in Myanmar. A prospective study was performed among adult patients with snakebite admitted to tertiary hospitals in Yangon, Myanmar, from May 2015 to August 2016. Data including clinical variables and laboratory parameters, management, and outcomes were evaluated. Multivariate regression analysis was performed to evaluate factors predictive for death at the time of presentation to the hospital. Of the 246 patients with snake envenomation recruited into the study, 225 (92%) survived and 21 (8%) died during hospitalization. The snake species responsible for a bite was identified in 74 (30%) of the patients; the majority of bites were from Russell's vipers (63 patients, 85%). The independent factors predictive for death included 1) duration from bite to arrival at the hospital >1 h (odds ratio [OR]: 9.0, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.1-75.2; P=0.04); 2) white blood cell counts >20 ×10 3 cells·μL -1 (OR: 8.9, 95% CI: 2.3-33.7; P=0.001); and 3) the presence of capillary leakage (OR: 3.7, 95% CI: 1.2-11.2; P=0.02). A delay in antivenom administration >4 h increases risk of death (11/21 deaths). Patients who present with these independent predictive factors should be recognized and provided with early appropriate intervention to reduce the mortality rate among adults with snake envenomation in Myanmar. Copyright © 2018 Wilderness Medical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. BNP predicts chemotherapy-related cardiotoxicity and death

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skovgaard, Dorthe; Hasbak, Philip; Kjaer, Andreas

    2014-01-01

    ventriculography (MUGA) or echocardiography. However, the plasma cardiac biomarker B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) has been suggested for early identification of cardiac dysfunction. The aim of the study was to compare LVEF obtained by MUGA and plasma BNP as predictors of developing congestive heart failure (CHF...... death. In multivariate Cox analysis both BNP and LVEF were independent predictors of CHF while age remained the only independent predictor of overall death. CONCLUSION: In cancer patients treated with cardiotoxic chemotherapy both BNP and LVEF can significantly predict subsequent hospitalization...... with CHF. In addition, BNP and not LVEF has a prognostic value in detecting overall death. This prospective study based on the hitherto largest study population supports BNP as a clinical relevant method for monitoring chemotherapy-related cardiac failure and death....

  9. Extremes of shock index predicts death in trauma patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen R Odom

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Context: We noted a bimodal relationship between mortality and shock index (SI, the ratio of heart rate to systolic blood pressure. Aims: To determine if extremes of SI can predict mortality in trauma patients. Settings and Designs: Retrospective evaluation of adult trauma patients at a tertiary care center from 2000 to 2012 in the United States. Materials and Methods: We examined the SI in trauma patients and determined the adjusted mortality for patients with and without head injuries. Statistical Analysis Used: Descriptive statistics and multivariable logistic regression. Results: SI values demonstrated a U-shaped relationship with mortality. Compared with patients with a SI between 0.5 and 0.7, patients with a SI of 1.3 had an odds ratio of death of 3.1. (95% CI 1.6–5.9. Elevated SI is associated with increased mortality in patients with isolated torso injuries, and is associated with death at both low and high values in patients with head injury. Conclusion: Our data indicate a bimodal relationship between SI and mortality in head injured patients that persists after correction for various co-factors. The distribution of mortality is different between head injured patients and patients without head injuries. Elevated SI predicts death in all trauma patients, but low SI values only predict death in head injured patients.

  10. Predictive factors associated with death of elderly in nursing homes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sung, Kiwol

    2014-06-01

    An increasing elderly population reflects a great need for readily accessible, clinically useful methods to identify mortality-related factors in nursing home residents. The purpose of this study was to identify factors associated with the deaths of nursing home residents. Data was collected from a Minimal Data Set of 195 elderly nursing home residents, followed by analysis of demographic factors, disease and nursing condition factors, Activities of Daily Living (ADL), cognitive function, behavioral patterns, and dysfunctional status. Major factors associated with death among nursing home residents were identified as dyspnea (odds ratio [OR] = 4.88), problematic behaviors (OR = 3.95), and ADL (OR = 3.61). These variables accounted for 31.1% of the variance in death. Dyspnea, problematic behaviors, and ADL data were identified as the key factors associated with death among nursing home residents. Future plans for the prediction of death among nursing home residents can be made by nursing staff, factoring in these identified variables, to ensure more comfortable conditions and more responsive care. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  11. Risk prediction of cardiovascular death based on the QTc interval

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jonas B; Graff, Claus; Rasmussen, Peter V

    2014-01-01

    electrocardiograms from 173 529 primary care patients aged 50-90 years were collected during 2001-11. The Framingham formula was used for heart rate-correction of the QT interval. Data on medication, comorbidity, and outcomes were retrieved from administrative registries. During a median follow-up period of 6......AIMS: Using a large, contemporary primary care population we aimed to provide absolute long-term risks of cardiovascular death (CVD) based on the QTc interval and to test whether the QTc interval is of value in risk prediction of CVD on an individual level. METHODS AND RESULTS: Digital...

  12. Predicting safe sandwich production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Birk, Tina; Duan, Zhi; Møller, Cleide Oliveira de Almeida

    2014-01-01

    Time and temperature control is crucial to avoid growth of pathogens during production and serving of cold ready-to-eat meals. The Danish guidelines state that chilled foods, such as sandwiches, should not be outside the cold chain for more than 3 hours including the time for preparation...... and serving. However, Danish sandwich producing companies find it challenging to comply with this and have expressed a need for more flexibility. The Danish guidelines do allow for a prolongation of the acceptable time outside the cold chain, if the safety of the specific production can be documented...

  13. Adolescent expectations of early death predict adult risk behaviors.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Quynh C Nguyen

    Full Text Available Only a handful of public health studies have investigated expectations of early death among adolescents. Associations have been found between these expectations and risk behaviors in adolescence. However, these beliefs may not only predict worse adolescent outcomes, but worse trajectories in health with ties to negative outcomes that endure into young adulthood. The objectives of this study were to investigate perceived chances of living to age 35 (Perceived Survival Expectations, PSE as a predictor of suicidal ideation, suicide attempt and substance use in young adulthood. We examined the predictive capacity of PSE on future suicidal ideation/attempt after accounting for sociodemographics, depressive symptoms, and history of suicide among family and friends to more fully assess its unique contribution to suicide risk. We investigated the influence of PSE on legal and illegal substance use and varying levels of substance use. We utilized the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health initiated in 1994-95 among 20,745 adolescents in grades 7-12 with follow-up interviews in 1996 (Wave II, 2001-02 (Wave III and 2008 (Wave IV; ages 24-32. Compared to those who were almost certain of living to age 35, perceiving a 50-50 or less chance of living to age 35 at Waves I or III predicted suicide attempt and ideation as well as regular substance use (i.e., exceeding daily limits for moderate drinking; smoking ≥ a pack/day; and using illicit substances other than marijuana at least weekly at Wave IV. Associations between PSE and detrimental adult outcomes were particularly strong for those reporting persistently low PSE at both Waves I and III. Low PSE at Wave I or Wave III was also related to a doubling and tripling, respectively, of death rates in young adulthood. Long-term and wide-ranging ties between PSE and detrimental outcomes suggest these expectations may contribute to identifying at-risk youth.

  14. Hypoxemia predicts death from severe falciparum malaria among ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2014-06-02

    Jun 2, 2014 ... Major strategies aimed at the control and reduction ... with death in univariate analysis but not logistic regression model. ... at subsidised costs paid by the caregivers. ..... this treatments may have reversed the progression of.

  15. Using poison center exposure calls to predict methadone poisoning deaths.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nabarun Dasgupta

    Full Text Available PURPOSE: There are more drug overdose deaths in the Untied States than motor vehicle fatalities. Yet the US vital statistics reporting system is of limited value because the data are delayed by four years. Poison centers report data within an hour of the event, but previous studies suggested a small proportion of poisoning deaths are reported to poison centers (PC. In an era of improved electronic surveillance capabilities, exposure calls to PCs may be an alternate indicator of trends in overdose mortality. METHODS: We used PC call counts for methadone that were reported to the Researched Abuse, Diversion and Addiction-Related Surveillance (RADARS® System in 2006 and 2007. US death certificate data were used to identify deaths due to methadone. Linear regression was used to quantify the relationship of deaths and poison center calls. RESULTS: Compared to decedents, poison center callers tended to be younger, more often female, at home and less likely to require medical attention. A strong association was found with PC calls and methadone mortality (b=0.88, se=0.42, t=9.5, df=1, p<0.0001, R(2 =0.77. These findings were robust to large changes in a sensitivity analysis assessing the impact of underreporting of methadone overdose deaths. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that calls to poison centers for methadone are correlated with poisoning mortality as identified on death certificates. Calls received by poison centers may be used for timely surveillance of mortality due to methadone. In the midst of the prescription opioid overdose epidemic, electronic surveillance tools that report in real-time are powerful public health tools.

  16. Predictive Manufacturing: A Classification Strategy to Predict Product Failures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khan, Abdul Rauf; Schiøler, Henrik; Kulahci, Murat

    2018-01-01

    manufacturing analytics model that employs a big data approach to predicting product failures; third, we illustrate the issue of high dimensionality, along with statistically redundant information; and, finally, our proposed method will be compared against the well-known classification methods (SVM, K......-nearest neighbor, artificial neural networks). The results from real data show that our predictive manufacturing analytics approach, using genetic algorithms and Voronoi tessellations, is capable of predicting product failure with reasonable accuracy. The potential application of this method contributes...... to accurately predicting product failures, which would enable manufacturers to reduce production costs without compromising product quality....

  17. Predictive Factors associated with Death of Elderly in Nursing Homes

    OpenAIRE

    Kiwol Sung, PhD, RN

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: An increasing elderly population reflects a great need for readily accessible, clinically useful methods to identify mortality-related factors in nursing home residents. The purpose of this study was to identify factors associated with the deaths of nursing home residents. Methods: Data was collected from a Minimal Data Set of 195 elderly nursing home residents, followed by analysis of demographic factors, disease and nursing condition factors, Activities of Daily Living (ADL), co...

  18. Chest HRCT signs predict deaths in long-term follow-up among asbestos exposed workers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vehmas, Tapio, E-mail: tapio.vehmas@ttl.fi [Health and Work Ability, Finnish Institute of Occupational Health, Topeliuksenkatu 41 a A, FI-00250 Helsinki (Finland); Oksa, Panu, E-mail: panu.oksa@ttl.fi [Health and Work Ability, Finnish Institute of Occupational Health, Uimalankatu 1, FI-33101 Tampere (Finland)

    2014-10-15

    Highlights: • Much lung and pleural pathology is found in chest CT studies. • HRCT signs were screened and subsequent mortality followed up. • Several signs were related to all-cause and disease specific deaths. • The HRCT classification system used was able to predict mortality. • Secondary preventive strategies should be developed for patients with such signs. - Abstract: Objectives: To study associations between chest HRCT signs and subsequent deaths in long-term follow-up. Methods: Lung and pleural signs of 633 asbestos exposed workers (age 45–86, mean 65) screened with HRCT were recorded by using the International Classification of Occupational and Environmental Respiratory Diseases (ICOERD) system, which contains detailed instructions for use and reference images. Subsequent mortality was checked from the national register. Cox regression adjusted for covariates (age, sex, BMI, asbestos exposure, pack-years) was used to explore the relations between HRCT signs and all-cause deaths, cardiovascular and benign respiratory deaths, and deaths from neoplasms – all according to the ICD-10 diagnostic system. Results: The follow-up totalled 5271.9 person-years (mean 8.3 y/person, range .04–10.3). 119 deaths were reported. Irregular/linear opacities, honeycombing, emphysema, large opacities, visceral pleural abnormalities and bronchial wall thickening were all significantly related to all-cause deaths. Most of these signs were associated also with deaths from neoplasms and benign respiratory disease. Deaths from cardiovascular disease were predicted by emphysema and visceral pleural abnormalities. Conclusions: Several HRCT signs predicted deaths. Careful attention should be paid on subjects with radiological signs predictive of deaths and new secondary preventive strategies developed. This calls for further focused studies among different populations.

  19. Predicting and analyzing the trend of traffic accidents deaths in Iran in 2014 and 2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehmandar, Mohammadreza; Soori, Hamid; Mehrabi, Yadolah

    2016-01-01

    Predicting the trend in traffic accidents deaths and its analysis can be a useful tool for planning and policy-making, conducting interventions appropriate with death trend, and taking the necessary actions required for controlling and preventing future occurrences. Predicting and analyzing the trend of traffic accidents deaths in Iran in 2014 and 2015. It was a cross-sectional study. All the information related to fatal traffic accidents available in the database of Iran Legal Medicine Organization from 2004 to the end of 2013 were used to determine the change points (multi-variable time series analysis). Using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, traffic accidents death rates were predicted for 2014 and 2015, and a comparison was made between this rate and the predicted value in order to determine the efficiency of the model. From the results, the actual death rate in 2014 was almost similar to that recorded for this year, while in 2015 there was a decrease compared with the previous year (2014) for all the months. A maximum value of 41% was also predicted for the months of January and February, 2015. From the prediction and analysis of the death trends, proper application and continuous use of the intervention conducted in the previous years for road safety improvement, motor vehicle safety improvement, particularly training and culture-fostering interventions, as well as approval and execution of deterrent regulations for changing the organizational behaviors, can significantly decrease the loss caused by traffic accidents.

  20. Long term prediction of unconventional oil production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohr, S.H.; Evans, G.M.

    2010-01-01

    Although considerable discussion surrounds unconventional oil's ability to mitigate the effects of peaking conventional oil production, very few models of unconventional oil production exist. The aim of this article was to project unconventional oil production to determine how significant its production may be. Two models were developed to predict the unconventional oil production, one model for in situ production and the other for mining the resources. Unconventional oil production is anticipated to reach between 18 and 32 Gb/y (49-88 Mb/d) in 2076-2084, before declining. If conventional oil production is at peak production then projected unconventional oil production cannot mitigate peaking of conventional oil alone.

  1. Storm Prediction Center Forecast Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    select the go button to submit request Local forecast by "City, St" or "ZIP" City, St Archive NOAA Weather Radio Research Non-op. Products Forecast Tools Svr. Tstm. Events SPC Publications SPC services. Forecast Products Current Weather Watches This is the current graphic showing any severe

  2. Utility of Hippocrates' prognostic aphorism to predict death in the modern era: prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    St John, Philip D; Montgomery, Patrick R

    2014-12-15

    To determine if one of Hippocrates' aphorisms, identifying good cognition and good appetite as two prognostic factors, predicts death in community living older adults in the modern era. Secondary analysis of an existing population based cohort study. Manitoba Study of Health and Aging. 1751 community living adults aged more than 65 enrolled in the Manitoba Study of Health and Aging in 1991 and followed over five years. Time to death. We recreated the hippocratic prognosticator using an item that measures appetite drawn from the Center for Epidemiologic Studies-depression subscale, and the mini-mental state examination, with a score of >25 being considered as normal. People with normal cognition and appetite were compared with those with either poor cognition or poor appetite. We constructed Cox regression models, adjusted for age, sex, education, and functional status. The prognostic aphorism predicted death, with an unadjusted hazard ratio of 2.37 (95% confidence interval 1.93 to 2.88) and a hazard ratio of 1.71 (1.37 to 2.12) adjusted for age, sex, and education. Both poor appetite and poor cognition predicted death. The sensitivity and specificity were not, however, sufficient for the measure to be used alone. An aphorism devised by Hippocrates millennia ago can predict death in the modern era. © St John et al 2014.

  3. Utility of Hippocrates’ prognostic aphorism to predict death in the modern era: prospective cohort study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montgomery, Patrick R

    2014-01-01

    Objective To determine if one of Hippocrates’ aphorisms, identifying good cognition and good appetite as two prognostic factors, predicts death in community living older adults in the modern era. Design Secondary analysis of an existing population based cohort study. Setting Manitoba Study of Health and Aging. Participants 1751 community living adults aged more than 65 enrolled in the Manitoba Study of Health and Aging in 1991 and followed over five years. Main outcome measure Time to death. Methods We recreated the hippocratic prognosticator using an item that measures appetite drawn from the Center for Epidemiologic Studies-depression subscale, and the mini-mental state examination, with a score of >25 being considered as normal. People with normal cognition and appetite were compared with those with either poor cognition or poor appetite. We constructed Cox regression models, adjusted for age, sex, education, and functional status. Results The prognostic aphorism predicted death, with an unadjusted hazard ratio of 2.37 (95% confidence interval 1.93 to 2.88) and a hazard ratio of 1.71 (1.37 to 2.12) adjusted for age, sex, and education. Both poor appetite and poor cognition predicted death. The sensitivity and specificity were not, however, sufficient for the measure to be used alone. Conclusion An aphorism devised by Hippocrates millennia ago can predict death in the modern era. PMID:25512328

  4. Observed and Predicted Risk of Breast Cancer Death in Randomized Trials on Breast Cancer Screening.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Autier, Philippe; Boniol, Mathieu; Smans, Michel; Sullivan, Richard; Boyle, Peter

    2016-01-01

    The role of breast screening in breast cancer mortality declines is debated. Screening impacts cancer mortality through decreasing the number of advanced cancers with poor diagnosis, while cancer treatment works through decreasing the case-fatality rate. Hence, reductions in cancer death rates thanks to screening should directly reflect reductions in advanced cancer rates. We verified whether in breast screening trials, the observed reductions in the risk of breast cancer death could be predicted from reductions of advanced breast cancer rates. The Greater New York Health Insurance Plan trial (HIP) is the only breast screening trial that reported stage-specific cancer fatality for the screening and for the control group separately. The Swedish Two-County trial (TCT)) reported size-specific fatalities for cancer patients in both screening and control groups. We computed predicted numbers of breast cancer deaths, from which we calculated predicted relative risks (RR) and (95% confidence intervals). The Age trial in England performed its own calculations of predicted relative risk. The observed and predicted RR of breast cancer death were 0.72 (0.56-0.94) and 0.98 (0.77-1.24) in the HIP trial, and 0.79 (0.78-1.01) and 0.90 (0.80-1.01) in the Age trial. In the TCT, the observed RR was 0.73 (0.62-0.87), while the predicted RR was 0.89 (0.75-1.05) if overdiagnosis was assumed to be negligible and 0.83 (0.70-0.97) if extra cancers were excluded. In breast screening trials, factors other than screening have contributed to reductions in the risk of breast cancer death most probably by reducing the fatality of advanced cancers in screening groups. These factors were the better management of breast cancer patients and the underreporting of breast cancer as the underlying cause of death. Breast screening trials should publish stage-specific fatalities observed in each group.

  5. Savanna browse production. 2: Prediction | Penderis | African ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Our study was initiated with the aim of modelling browse production rates of key savanna tree species in the northern Zululand region of KwaZulu-Natal, with the assumption that browse production equates to utilised browse biomass. Predictive models for the production of browse, at different game feeding levels, ...

  6. Combined Prediction Model of Death Toll for Road Traffic Accidents Based on Independent and Dependent Variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feng Zhong-xiang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to build a combined model which can meet the variation rule of death toll data for road traffic accidents and can reflect the influence of multiple factors on traffic accidents and improve prediction accuracy for accidents, the Verhulst model was built based on the number of death tolls for road traffic accidents in China from 2002 to 2011; and car ownership, population, GDP, highway freight volume, highway passenger transportation volume, and highway mileage were chosen as the factors to build the death toll multivariate linear regression model. Then the two models were combined to be a combined prediction model which has weight coefficient. Shapley value method was applied to calculate the weight coefficient by assessing contributions. Finally, the combined model was used to recalculate the number of death tolls from 2002 to 2011, and the combined model was compared with the Verhulst and multivariate linear regression models. The results showed that the new model could not only characterize the death toll data characteristics but also quantify the degree of influence to the death toll by each influencing factor and had high accuracy as well as strong practicability.

  7. Combined prediction model of death toll for road traffic accidents based on independent and dependent variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Zhong-xiang; Lu, Shi-sheng; Zhang, Wei-hua; Zhang, Nan-nan

    2014-01-01

    In order to build a combined model which can meet the variation rule of death toll data for road traffic accidents and can reflect the influence of multiple factors on traffic accidents and improve prediction accuracy for accidents, the Verhulst model was built based on the number of death tolls for road traffic accidents in China from 2002 to 2011; and car ownership, population, GDP, highway freight volume, highway passenger transportation volume, and highway mileage were chosen as the factors to build the death toll multivariate linear regression model. Then the two models were combined to be a combined prediction model which has weight coefficient. Shapley value method was applied to calculate the weight coefficient by assessing contributions. Finally, the combined model was used to recalculate the number of death tolls from 2002 to 2011, and the combined model was compared with the Verhulst and multivariate linear regression models. The results showed that the new model could not only characterize the death toll data characteristics but also quantify the degree of influence to the death toll by each influencing factor and had high accuracy as well as strong practicability.

  8. Repeated assessments of symptom severity improve predictions for risk of death among patients with cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutradhar, Rinku; Atzema, Clare; Seow, Hsien; Earle, Craig; Porter, Joan; Barbera, Lisa

    2014-12-01

    Although prior studies show the importance of self-reported symptom scores as predictors of cancer survival, most are based on scores recorded at a single point in time. To show that information on repeated assessments of symptom severity improves predictions for risk of death and to use updated symptom information for determining whether worsening of symptom scores is associated with a higher hazard of death. This was a province-based longitudinal study of adult outpatients who had a cancer diagnosis and had assessments of symptom severity. We implemented a time-to-death Cox model with a time-varying covariate for each symptom to account for changing symptom scores over time. This model was compared with that using only a time-fixed (baseline) covariate for each symptom. The regression coefficients of each model were derived based on a randomly selected 60% of patients, and then, the predictive performance of each model was assessed via concordance probabilities when applied to the remaining 40% of patients. This study had 66,112 patients diagnosed with cancer and more than 310,000 assessments of symptoms. The use of repeated assessments of symptom scores improved predictions for risk of death compared with using only baseline symptom scores. Increased pain and fatigue and reduced appetite were the strongest predictors for death. If available, researchers should consider including changing information on symptom scores, as opposed to only baseline information on symptom scores, when examining hazard of death among patients with cancer. Worsening of pain, fatigue, and appetite may be a flag for impending death. Copyright © 2014 American Academy of Hospice and Palliative Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Alternative research funding to improve clinical outcomes: model of prediction and prevention of sudden cardiac death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myerburg, Robert J; Ullmann, Steven G

    2015-04-01

    Although identification and management of cardiovascular risk markers have provided important population risk insights and public health benefits, individual risk prediction remains challenging. Using sudden cardiac death risk as a base case, the complex epidemiology of sudden cardiac death risk and the substantial new funding required to study individual risk are explored. Complex epidemiology derives from the multiple subgroups having different denominators and risk profiles, while funding limitations emerge from saturation of conventional sources of research funding without foreseeable opportunities for increases. A resolution to this problem would have to emerge from new sources of funding targeted to individual risk prediction. In this analysis, we explore the possibility of a research funding strategy that would offer business incentives to the insurance industries, while providing support for unresolved research goals. The model is developed for the case of sudden cardiac death risk, but the concept is applicable to other areas of the medical enterprise. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

  10. In-Hospital Death Prediction in Patients with Acute Coronary Syndrome

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Monhart, Z.; Reissigová, Jindra; Zvárová, Jana; Grünfeldová, H.; Janský, P.; Vojáček, J.; Widimský, P.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 1, č. 1 (2013), s. 52-52 ISSN 1805-8698. [EFMI 2013 Special Topic Conference. 17.04.2013-19.04.2013, Prague] Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : acute coronary syndrome * in-hospital death * prediction * multilevel logistic regression * non- PCI hospital Subject RIV: IN - Informatics, Computer Science

  11. Predicting the intrauterine fetal death of fetuses with cystic hygroma in early pregnancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimura, Mai; Ishikawa, Hiroshi; Nagase, Hiromi; Mochizuki, Akihiko; Sekiguchi, Futoshi; Koshimizu, Naho; Itai, Toshiyuki; Odagami, Mizuha

    2018-01-11

    We investigated whether it was possible to predict the prognosis of fetuses with cystic hygroma in early pregnancy based on the degree of neck thickening. We retrospectively analyzed 57 singleton pregnancies with fetuses with cystic hygroma who were examined before the 22nd week of pregnancy. The fetuses were categorized according to the outcome, structural abnormalities at birth, and chromosomal abnormalities. Here, we proposed a new sonographic predictor with which we assessed neck thickening by dividing the width of the neck thickening by the biparietal diameter, which is expressed as the cystic hygroma width/biparietal diameter ratio. The median cystic hygroma width/biparietal diameter ratio in the intrauterine fetal death group (0.51) was significantly higher than that in the live birth group (0.27). No significant difference in the median cystic hygroma width/biparietal diameter ratio was found between the structural abnormalities group at birth and the no structural abnormalities group, and no significant difference in the median cystic hygroma width/biparietal diameter ratio was found between the chromosomal abnormality group and the no chromosomal abnormality group. We used receiver operating characteristic analysis to evaluate the cystic hygroma width/biparietal diameter ratio to predict intrauterine fetal death. When the cystic hygroma width/biparietal diameter ratio cut-off value was 0.5, intrauterine fetal death could be predicted with a sensitivity of 52.9% and a specificity of 100%. It is possible to predict intrauterine fetal death in fetuses with cystic hygroma in early pregnancy if cystic hygroma width/biparietal diameter ratio is measured. However, even if cystic hygroma width/biparietal diameter ratio is measured, predicting the presence or absence of a structural abnormality at birth or a chromosomal abnormality is difficult. © 2018 Japanese Teratology Society.

  12. Discrete event simulation model of sudden cardiac death predicts high impact of preventive interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreev, Victor P; Head, Trajen; Johnson, Neil; Deo, Sapna K; Daunert, Sylvia; Goldschmidt-Clermont, Pascal J

    2013-01-01

    Sudden Cardiac Death (SCD) is responsible for at least 180,000 deaths a year and incurs an average cost of $286 billion annually in the United States alone. Herein, we present a novel discrete event simulation model of SCD, which quantifies the chains of events associated with the formation, growth, and rupture of atheroma plaques, and the subsequent formation of clots, thrombosis and on-set of arrhythmias within a population. The predictions generated by the model are in good agreement both with results obtained from pathological examinations on the frequencies of three major types of atheroma, and with epidemiological data on the prevalence and risk of SCD. These model predictions allow for identification of interventions and importantly for the optimal time of intervention leading to high potential impact on SCD risk reduction (up to 8-fold reduction in the number of SCDs in the population) as well as the increase in life expectancy.

  13. Profound Endothelial Damage Predicts Impending Organ Failure and Death in Sepsis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Maria E; Johansson, Pär I.; Ostrowski, Sisse R

    2015-01-01

    levels at enrollment predicted risk of multiple organ failure during follow-up (HR [> 14 ng/mL vs. organ failure and death in septic......Endothelial damage contributes to organ failure and mortality in sepsis, but the extent of the contribution remains poorly quantified. Here, we examine the association between biomarkers of superficial and profound endothelial damage (syndecan-1 and soluble thrombomodulin [sTM], respectively......), organ failure, and death in sepsis. The data from a clinical trial, including critically ill patients predominantly suffering sepsis (Clinicaltrials.gov: NCT00271752) were studied. Syndecan-1 and sTM levels at the time of study enrollment were determined. The predictive ability of biomarker levels...

  14. Predicting impending death: inconsistency in speed is a selective and early marker.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macdonald, Stuart W S; Hultsch, David F; Dixon, Roger A

    2008-09-01

    Among older adults, deficits in both level and variability of speeded performance are linked to neurological impairment. This study examined whether and when speed (rate), speed (inconsistency), and traditional accuracy-based markers of cognitive performance foreshadow terminal decline and impending death. Victoria Longitudinal Study data spanning 12 years (5 waves) of measurement were assembled for 707 adults aged 59 to 95 years. Whereas 442 survivors completed all waves and relevant measures, 265 decedents participated on at least 1 occasion and subsequently died. Four main results were observed. First, Cox regressions evaluating the 3 cognitive predictors of mortality replicated previous results for cognitive accuracy predictors. Second, level (rate) of speeded performance predicted survival independent of demographic indicators, cardiovascular health, and cognitive performance level. Third, inconsistency in speed predicted survival independent of all influences combined. Fourth, follow-up random-effects models revealed increases in inconsistency in speed per year closer to death, with advancing age further moderating the accelerated growth. Hierarchical prediction patterns support the view that inconsistency in speed is an early behavioral marker of neurological dysfunction associated with impending death. (c) 2008 APA, all rights reserved

  15. Prediction of time of death after withdrawal of life-sustaining treatment in potential donors after cardiac death

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wind, Jentina; Snoeijs, Maarten G. J.; Brugman, Cees A.; Vervelde, Janneke; Zwaveling, Janharm; van Mook, Walther N.; van Heurn, Ernest L.

    Objective: Organ donation after cardiac death increases the number of donor organs. In controlled donation after cardiac death donors, the period between withdrawal of life-sustaining treatment and cardiac arrest is one of the parameters used to assess whether organs are suitable for

  16. Prediction of time of death after withdrawal of life-sustaining treatment in potential donors after cardiac death

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wind, Jentina; Snoeijs, Maarten G. J.; Brugman, Cees A.; Vervelde, Janneke; Zwaveling, Janharm; van Mook, Walther N.; van Heurn, Ernest L.

    2012-01-01

    Objective: Organ donation after cardiac death increases the number of donor organs. In controlled donation after cardiac death donors, the period between withdrawal of life-sustaining treatment and cardiac arrest is one of the parameters used to assess whether organs are suitable for

  17. Comparison of joint modeling and landmarking for dynamic prediction under an illness-death model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suresh, Krithika; Taylor, Jeremy M G; Spratt, Daniel E; Daignault, Stephanie; Tsodikov, Alexander

    2017-11-01

    Dynamic prediction incorporates time-dependent marker information accrued during follow-up to improve personalized survival prediction probabilities. At any follow-up, or "landmark", time, the residual time distribution for an individual, conditional on their updated marker values, can be used to produce a dynamic prediction. To satisfy a consistency condition that links dynamic predictions at different time points, the residual time distribution must follow from a prediction function that models the joint distribution of the marker process and time to failure, such as a joint model. To circumvent the assumptions and computational burden associated with a joint model, approximate methods for dynamic prediction have been proposed. One such method is landmarking, which fits a Cox model at a sequence of landmark times, and thus is not a comprehensive probability model of the marker process and the event time. Considering an illness-death model, we derive the residual time distribution and demonstrate that the structure of the Cox model baseline hazard and covariate effects under the landmarking approach do not have simple form. We suggest some extensions of the landmark Cox model that should provide a better approximation. We compare the performance of the landmark models with joint models using simulation studies and cognitive aging data from the PAQUID study. We examine the predicted probabilities produced under both methods using data from a prostate cancer study, where metastatic clinical failure is a time-dependent covariate for predicting death following radiation therapy. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  18. The paradox of verbal autopsy in cause of death assignment: symptom question unreliability but predictive accuracy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serina, Peter; Riley, Ian; Hernandez, Bernardo; Flaxman, Abraham D; Praveen, Devarsetty; Tallo, Veronica; Joshi, Rohina; Sanvictores, Diozele; Stewart, Andrea; Mooney, Meghan D; Murray, Christopher J L; Lopez, Alan D

    2016-01-01

    We believe that it is important that governments understand the reliability of the mortality data which they have at their disposable to guide policy debates. In many instances, verbal autopsy (VA) will be the only source of mortality data for populations, yet little is known about how the accuracy of VA diagnoses is affected by the reliability of the symptom responses. We previously described the effect of the duration of time between death and VA administration on VA validity. In this paper, using the same dataset, we assess the relationship between the reliability and completeness of symptom responses and the reliability and accuracy of cause of death (COD) prediction. The study was based on VAs in the Population Health Metrics Research Consortium (PHMRC) VA Validation Dataset from study sites in Bohol and Manila, Philippines and Andhra Pradesh, India. The initial interview was repeated within 3-52 months of death. Question responses were assessed for reliability and completeness between the two survey rounds. COD was predicted by Tariff Method. A sample of 4226 VAs was collected for 2113 decedents, including 1394 adults, 349 children, and 370 neonates. Mean question reliability was unexpectedly low ( kappa  = 0.447): 42.5 % of responses positive at the first interview were negative at the second, and 47.9 % of responses positive at the second had been negative at the first. Question reliability was greater for the short form of the PHMRC instrument ( kappa  = 0.497) and when analyzed at the level of the individual decedent ( kappa  = 0.610). Reliability at the level of the individual decedent was associated with COD predictive reliability and predictive accuracy. Families give coherent accounts of events leading to death but the details vary from interview to interview for the same case. Accounts are accurate but inconsistent; different subsets of symptoms are identified on each occasion. However, there are sufficient accurate and consistent

  19. Predicting estuarine benthic production using functional diversity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marina Dolbeth

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available We considered an estuarine system having naturally low levels of diversity, but attaining considerable high production levels, and being subjected to different sorts of anthropogenic impacts and climate events to investigate the relationship between diversity and secondary production. Functional diversity measures were used to predict benthic production, which is considered as a proxy of the ecosystem provisioning services. To this end, we used a 14-year dataset on benthic invertebrate community production from a seagrass and a sandflat habitat and we adopted a sequential modeling approach, where abiotic, trait community weighted means (CWM and functional diversity indices were tested by generalized linear models (GLM, and their significant variables were then combined to produce a final model. Almost 90% of variance of the benthic production could be predicted by combining the number of locomotion types, the absolute maximum atmospheric temperature (proxy of the heat waves occurrence, the type of habitat and the mean body mass, by order of importance. This result is in agreement with the mass ratio hypothesis, where ecosystem functions/services can be chiefly predicted by the dominant trait in the community, here measured as CWM. The increase of benthic production with the number of locomotion types may be seen as greater possibility of using the resources available in the system. Such greater efficiency would increase production. The other variables were also discussed in line of the previous hypothesis and taking into account the general positive relationship obtained between production and functional diversity indices. Overall, it was concluded that traits representative of wider possibilities of using available resources and higher functional diversity are related with higher benthic production.

  20. Readmissions and death after ICU discharge: development and validation of two predictive models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omar Badawi

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Early discharge from the ICU is desirable because it shortens time in the ICU and reduces care costs, but can also increase the likelihood of ICU readmission and post-discharge unanticipated death if patients are discharged before they are stable. We postulated that, using eICU® Research Institute (eRI data from >400 ICUs, we could develop robust models predictive of post-discharge death and readmission that may be incorporated into future clinical information systems (CIS to assist ICU discharge planning. METHODS: Retrospective, multi-center, exploratory cohort study of ICU survivors within the eRI database between 1/1/2007 and 3/31/2011. EXCLUSION CRITERIA: DNR or care limitations at ICU discharge and discharge to location external to hospital. Patients were randomized (2∶1 to development and validation cohorts. Multivariable logistic regression was performed on a broad range of variables including: patient demographics, ICU admission diagnosis, admission severity of illness, laboratory values and physiologic variables present during the last 24 hours of the ICU stay. Multiple imputation was used to address missing data. The primary outcomes were the area under the receiver operator characteristic curves (auROC in the validation cohorts for the models predicting readmission and death within 48 hours of ICU discharge. RESULTS: 469,976 and 234,987 patients representing 219 hospitals were in the development and validation cohorts. Early ICU readmission and death was experienced by 2.54% and 0.92% of all patients, respectively. The relationship between predictors and outcomes (death vs readmission differed, justifying the need for separate models. The models for early readmission and death produced auROCs of 0.71 and 0.92, respectively. Both models calibrated well across risk groups. CONCLUSIONS: Our models for death and readmission after ICU discharge showed good to excellent discrimination and good calibration. Although

  1. Is past academic productivity predictive of radiology resident academic productivity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patterson, Stephanie K; Fitzgerald, James T; Boyse, Tedric D; Cohan, Richard H

    2002-02-01

    The authors performed this study to determine whether academic productivity in college and medical school is predictive of the number of publications produced during radiology residency. The authors reviewed the records of 73 radiology residents who completed their residency from 1990 to 2000. Academic productivity during college, medical school, and radiology residency, other postgraduate degrees, and past careers other than radiology were tabulated. The personal essay attached to the residency application was reviewed for any stated academic interest. Residents were classified as being either previously productive or previously unproductive. Publication rates during residency and immediately after residency were compared for the two groups. For the productive residents, a correlation analysis was used to examine the relationship between past frequency of publication and type of previous activity. Least-squares regression analysis was used to investigate the relationship between preresidency academic productivity, advanced degrees, stated interest in academics, and other careers and radiology residency publications. There was no statistically significant difference in the number of articles published by those residents who were active and those who were not active before residency (P = .21). Only authorship of papers as an undergraduate was weakly predictive of residency publication. These selected measures of academic productivity as an undergraduate and during medical school are not helpful for predicting publication during residency. There was no difference in publication potential between those residents who were academically productive in the past and those who were not.

  2. Liver Surface Nodularity Score Allows Prediction of Cirrhosis Decompensation and Death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Andrew D; Zand, Kevin A; Florez, Edward; Sirous, Reza; Shlapak, Darya; Souza, Frederico; Roda, Manohar; Bryan, Jason; Vasanji, Amit; Griswold, Michael; Lirette, Seth T

    2017-06-01

    Purpose To determine whether use of the liver surface nodularity (LSN) score, a quantitative biomarker derived from routine computed tomographic (CT) images, allows prediction of cirrhosis decompensation and death. Materials and Methods For this institutional review board-approved HIPAA-compliant retrospective study, adult patients with cirrhosis and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score within 3 months of initial liver CT imaging between January 3, 2006, and May 30, 2012, were identified from electronic medical records (n = 830). The LSN score was measured by using CT images and quantitative software. Competing risk regression was used to determine the association of the LSN score with hepatic decompensation and overall survival. A risk model combining LSN scores (<3 or ≥3) and MELD scores (<10 or ≥10) was created for predicting liver-related events. Results In patients with compensated cirrhosis, 40% (129 of 326) experienced decompensation during a median follow-up period of 4.22 years. After adjustment for competing risks including MELD score, LSN score (hazard ratio, 1.38; 95% confidence interval: 1.06, 1.79) was found to be independently predictive of hepatic decompensation. Median times to decompensation of patients at high (1.76 years, n = 48), intermediate (3.79 years, n = 126), and low (6.14 years, n = 152) risk of hepatic decompensation were significantly different (P < .001). Among the full cohort with compensated or decompensated cirrhosis, 61% (504 of 830) died during the median follow-up period of 2.26 years. After adjustment for competing risks, LSN score (hazard ratio, 1.22; 95% confidence interval: 1.11, 1.33) and MELD score (hazard ratio, 1.08; 95% confidence interval: 1.06, 1.11) were found to be independent predictors of death. Median times to death of patients at high (0.94 years, n = 315), intermediate (2.79 years, n = 312), and low (4.69 years, n = 203) risk were significantly different (P < .001). Conclusion The LSN score

  3. Prediction of cause of death from forensic autopsy reports using text classification techniques: A comparative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mujtaba, Ghulam; Shuib, Liyana; Raj, Ram Gopal; Rajandram, Retnagowri; Shaikh, Khairunisa

    2018-07-01

    Automatic text classification techniques are useful for classifying plaintext medical documents. This study aims to automatically predict the cause of death from free text forensic autopsy reports by comparing various schemes for feature extraction, term weighing or feature value representation, text classification, and feature reduction. For experiments, the autopsy reports belonging to eight different causes of death were collected, preprocessed and converted into 43 master feature vectors using various schemes for feature extraction, representation, and reduction. The six different text classification techniques were applied on these 43 master feature vectors to construct a classification model that can predict the cause of death. Finally, classification model performance was evaluated using four performance measures i.e. overall accuracy, macro precision, macro-F-measure, and macro recall. From experiments, it was found that that unigram features obtained the highest performance compared to bigram, trigram, and hybrid-gram features. Furthermore, in feature representation schemes, term frequency, and term frequency with inverse document frequency obtained similar and better results when compared with binary frequency, and normalized term frequency with inverse document frequency. Furthermore, the chi-square feature reduction approach outperformed Pearson correlation, and information gain approaches. Finally, in text classification algorithms, support vector machine classifier outperforms random forest, Naive Bayes, k-nearest neighbor, decision tree, and ensemble-voted classifier. Our results and comparisons hold practical importance and serve as references for future works. Moreover, the comparison outputs will act as state-of-art techniques to compare future proposals with existing automated text classification techniques. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

  4. Wind farms production: Control and prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Fouly, Tarek Hussein Mostafa

    Wind energy resources, unlike dispatchable central station generation, produce power dependable on external irregular source and that is the incident wind speed which does not always blow when electricity is needed. This results in the variability, unpredictability, and uncertainty of wind resources. Therefore, the integration of wind facilities to utility electrical grid presents a major challenge to power system operator. Such integration has significant impact on the optimum power flow, transmission congestion, power quality issues, system stability, load dispatch, and economic analysis. Due to the irregular nature of wind power production, accurate prediction represents the major challenge to power system operators. Therefore, in this thesis two novel models are proposed for wind speed and wind power prediction. One proposed model is dedicated to short-term prediction (one-hour ahead) and the other involves medium term prediction (one-day ahead). The accuracy of the proposed models is revealed by comparing their results with the corresponding values of a reference prediction model referred to as the persistent model. Utility grid operation is not only impacted by the uncertainty of the future production of wind farms, but also by the variability of their current production and how the active and reactive power exchange with the grid is controlled. To address this particular task, a control technique for wind turbines, driven by doubly-fed induction generators (DFIGs), is developed to regulate the terminal voltage by equally sharing the generated/absorbed reactive power between the rotor-side and the gridside converters. To highlight the impact of the new developed technique in reducing the power loss in the generator set, an economic analysis is carried out. Moreover, a new aggregated model for wind farms is proposed that accounts for the irregularity of the incident wind distribution throughout the farm layout. Specifically, this model includes the wake effect

  5. DNA methylation-based measures of biological age: meta-analysis predicting time to death

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Brian H.; Marioni, Riccardo E.; Colicino, Elena; Peters, Marjolein J.; Ward-Caviness, Cavin K.; Tsai, Pei-Chien; Roetker, Nicholas S.; Just, Allan C.; Demerath, Ellen W.; Guan, Weihua; Bressler, Jan; Fornage, Myriam; Studenski, Stephanie; Vandiver, Amy R.; Moore, Ann Zenobia; Tanaka, Toshiko; Kiel, Douglas P.; Liang, Liming; Vokonas, Pantel; Schwartz, Joel; Lunetta, Kathryn L.; Murabito, Joanne M.; Bandinelli, Stefania; Hernandez, Dena G.; Melzer, David; Nalls, Michael; Pilling, Luke C.; Price, Timothy R.; Singleton, Andrew B.; Gieger, Christian; Holle, Rolf; Kretschmer, Anja; Kronenberg, Florian; Kunze, Sonja; Linseisen, Jakob; Meisinger, Christine; Rathmann, Wolfgang; Waldenberger, Melanie; Visscher, Peter M.; Shah, Sonia; Wray, Naomi R.; McRae, Allan F.; Franco, Oscar H.; Hofman, Albert; Uitterlinden, André G.; Absher, Devin; Assimes, Themistocles; Levine, Morgan E.; Lu, Ake T.; Tsao, Philip S.; Hou, Lifang; Manson, JoAnn E.; Carty, Cara L.; LaCroix, Andrea Z.; Reiner, Alexander P.; Spector, Tim D.; Feinberg, Andrew P.; Levy, Daniel; Baccarelli, Andrea; van Meurs, Joyce; Bell, Jordana T.; Peters, Annette; Deary, Ian J.; Pankow, James S.; Ferrucci, Luigi; Horvath, Steve

    2016-01-01

    Estimates of biological age based on DNA methylation patterns, often referred to as “epigenetic age”, “DNAm age”, have been shown to be robust biomarkers of age in humans. We previously demonstrated that independent of chronological age, epigenetic age assessed in blood predicted all-cause mortality in four human cohorts. Here, we expanded our original observation to 13 different cohorts for a total sample size of 13,089 individuals, including three racial/ethnic groups. In addition, we examined whether incorporating information on blood cell composition into the epigenetic age metrics improves their predictive power for mortality. All considered measures of epigenetic age acceleration were predictive of mortality (p≤8.2×10−9), independent of chronological age, even after adjusting for additional risk factors (p<5.4×10−4), and within the racial/ethnic groups that we examined (non-Hispanic whites, Hispanics, African Americans). Epigenetic age estimates that incorporated information on blood cell composition led to the smallest p-values for time to death (p=7.5×10−43). Overall, this study a) strengthens the evidence that epigenetic age predicts all-cause mortality above and beyond chronological age and traditional risk factors, and b) demonstrates that epigenetic age estimates that incorporate information on blood cell counts lead to highly significant associations with all-cause mortality. PMID:27690265

  6. [Labor productivity losses attributable to premature deaths due to traffic injuries between 2002 and 2012].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cubí-Mollá, Patricia; Peña-Longobardo, Luz María; Casal, Bruno; Rivera, Berta; Oliva-Moreno, Juan

    2015-09-01

    To estimate the years of potential life lost, years of potential productive life lost and the labor productivity losses attributable to premature deaths due to traffic injuries between 2002 and 2012 in Spain. Several statistical sources were combined (Spanish Registry of Deaths, Labor Force Survey and Wage Structure Survey) to develop a simulation model based on the human capital approach. This model allowed us to estimate the loss of labor productivity caused by premature deaths following traffic injuries from 2002 to 2012. In addition, mortality tables with life expectancy estimates were used to compute years of potential life lost and years of potential productive life lost. The estimated loss of labour productivity caused by fatal traffic injuries between 2002 and 2012 in Spain amounted to 9,521 million euros (baseline year 2012). The aggregate number of years of potential life lost in the period amounted to 1,433,103, whereas the years of potential productive life lost amounted to 875,729. Throughout the period analyzed, labor productivity losses and years of life lost diminished substantially. Labor productivity losses due to fatal traffic injuries decreased throughout the period analyzed. Nevertheless, the cumulative loss was alarmingly high. Estimation of the economic impact of health problems can complement conventional indicators of distinct dimensions and be used to support public policy making. Copyright © 2014 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  7. Predicting the cumulative risk of death during hospitalization by modeling weekend, weekday and diurnal mortality risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coiera, Enrico; Wang, Ying; Magrabi, Farah; Concha, Oscar Perez; Gallego, Blanca; Runciman, William

    2014-05-21

    Current prognostic models factor in patient and disease specific variables but do not consider cumulative risks of hospitalization over time. We developed risk models of the likelihood of death associated with cumulative exposure to hospitalization, based on time-varying risks of hospitalization over any given day, as well as day of the week. Model performance was evaluated alone, and in combination with simple disease-specific models. Patients admitted between 2000 and 2006 from 501 public and private hospitals in NSW, Australia were used for training and 2007 data for evaluation. The impact of hospital care delivered over different days of the week and or times of the day was modeled by separating hospitalization risk into 21 separate time periods (morning, day, night across the days of the week). Three models were developed to predict death up to 7-days post-discharge: 1/a simple background risk model using age, gender; 2/a time-varying risk model for exposure to hospitalization (admission time, days in hospital); 3/disease specific models (Charlson co-morbidity index, DRG). Combining these three generated a full model. Models were evaluated by accuracy, AUC, Akaike and Bayesian information criteria. There was a clear diurnal rhythm to hospital mortality in the data set, peaking in the evening, as well as the well-known 'weekend-effect' where mortality peaks with weekend admissions. Individual models had modest performance on the test data set (AUC 0.71, 0.79 and 0.79 respectively). The combined model which included time-varying risk however yielded an average AUC of 0.92. This model performed best for stays up to 7-days (93% of admissions), peaking at days 3 to 5 (AUC 0.94). Risks of hospitalization vary not just with the day of the week but also time of the day, and can be used to make predictions about the cumulative risk of death associated with an individual's hospitalization. Combining disease specific models with such time varying- estimates appears to

  8. Antimicrobial resistance predicts death in Tanzanian children with bloodstream infections: a prospective cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Msangi Viola

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Bloodstream infection is a common cause of hospitalization, morbidity and death in children. The impact of antimicrobial resistance and HIV infection on outcome is not firmly established. Methods We assessed the incidence of bloodstream infection and risk factors for fatal outcome in a prospective cohort study of 1828 consecutive admissions of children aged zero to seven years with signs of systemic infection. Blood was obtained for culture, malaria microscopy, HIV antibody test and, when necessary, HIV PCR. We recorded data on clinical features, underlying diseases, antimicrobial drug use and patients' outcome. Results The incidence of laboratory-confirmed bloodstream infection was 13.9% (255/1828 of admissions, despite two thirds of the study population having received antimicrobial therapy prior to blood culture. The most frequent isolates were klebsiella, salmonellae, Escherichia coli, enterococci and Staphylococcus aureus. Furthermore, 21.6% had malaria and 16.8% HIV infection. One third (34.9% of the children with laboratory-confirmed bloodstream infection died. The mortality rate from Gram-negative bloodstream infection (43.5% was more than double that of malaria (20.2% and Gram-positive bloodstream infection (16.7%. Significant risk factors for death by logistic regression modeling were inappropriate treatment due to antimicrobial resistance, HIV infection, other underlying infectious diseases, malnutrition and bloodstream infection caused by Enterobacteriaceae, other Gram-negatives and candida. Conclusion Bloodstream infection was less common than malaria, but caused more deaths. The frequent use of antimicrobials prior to blood culture may have hampered the detection of organisms susceptible to commonly used antimicrobials, including pneumococci, and thus the study probably underestimates the incidence of bloodstream infection. The finding that antimicrobial resistance, HIV-infection and malnutrition predict fatal

  9. Penicilliosis and AIDS in Haiphong, Vietnam: evolution and predictive factors of death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Son, V T; Khue, P M; Strobel, M

    2014-12-01

    The study objective was to assess the lethality rates and the predictive factors for death in AIDS patients infected by Penicillium marneffei (Pm) in Hai Phong, Vietnam. A retrospective cohort study was conducted by reviewing 103 medicals records of confirmed cases from June 2006 to August 2009. Penicilliosis-related mortality was very high (33%). The majors risk factors of death were: (i) patient lacking complete treatment, a regimen with both of secondary prophylaxis by itraconazole and HAART (OR=52.2, P<0.001); (ii) patients having received only secondary prophylaxis (OR=21.2, P<0.001); (iii) patients coinfected by hepatitis C (OR=2.3, P=0.02) and tuberculosis (OR=1.97, P=0.04). Penicilliosis occurred in 28 cases after initiation of ART, probably caused by IRIS, with the same signs and symptoms as "common" penicilliosis. However, the diagnosis of IRIS was ruled out because the viral load could not be assessed. Penicilliosis is very frequent in the North of Vietnam. A good compliance to a complete treatment with healing antifungal (Amphotericin B) then secondary prophylaxis (Itraconazole) associate with ART, prolongs survival, prevents relapse, and also allows discontinuing a secondary prophylaxis in a half of the cases. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  10. Hyaluronic acid levels predict risk of hepatic encephalopathy and liver-related death in HIV/viral hepatitis coinfected patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Peters, Lars; Mocroft, Amanda; Soriano, Vincent

    2013-01-01

    Whereas it is well established that various soluble biomarkers can predict level of liver fibrosis, their ability to predict liver-related clinical outcomes is less clearly established, in particular among HIV/viral hepatitis co-infected persons. We investigated plasma hyaluronic acid's (HA......) ability to predict risk of liver-related events (LRE; hepatic coma or liver-related death) in the EuroSIDA study....

  11. Karoshi--death from overwork: occupational health consequences of Japanese production management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishiyama, K; Johnson, J V

    1997-01-01

    There is considerable international interest in Japanese production management (JPM), known in the West as "lean production." Advocates of this new form of management argue that it improves both economic productivity and health. In Japan, however, the relationship between JPM and sudden death due to cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease has been an important topic of debate since the 1970s. Japanese have named these types of deaths karoshi, which means "death from overwork." In North America and Western Europe a number of studies have demonstrated a significant relationship between high job strain (high production demands and low levels of control and social support) and cardiovascular disease. This article reviews the elements of JPM and examines their potential health consequences. The authors present an overview of karoshi, discuss its possible connections to specific ideological and organizational characteristics of JPM, and suggest the job strain mechanism as a possible pathway between karoshi and JPM. They conclude by discussing the need for comparative research that examines the health effects of work organization and management methods cross-culturally.

  12. Trends, Productivity Losses, and Associated Medical Conditions Among Toxoplasmosis Deaths in the United States, 2000–2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cummings, Patricia L.; Kuo, Tony; Javanbakht, Marjan; Sorvillo, Frank

    2014-01-01

    Few studies have quantified toxoplasmosis mortality, associated medical conditions, and productivity losses in the United States. We examined national multiple cause of death data and estimated productivity losses caused by toxoplasmosis during 2000–2010. A matched case–control analysis examined associations between comorbid medical conditions and toxoplasmosis deaths. In total, 789 toxoplasmosis deaths were identified during the 11-year study period. Blacks and Hispanics had the highest toxoplasmosis mortality compared with whites. Several medical conditions were associated with toxoplasmosis deaths, including human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), lymphoma, leukemia, and connective tissue disorders. The number of toxoplasmosis deaths with an HIV codiagnosis declined from 2000 to 2010; the numbers without such a codiagnosis remained static. Cumulative disease-related productivity losses for the 11-year period were nearly $815 million. Although toxoplasmosis mortality has declined in the last decade, the infection remains costly and is an important cause of preventable death among non-HIV subgroups. PMID:25200264

  13. Productivity losses associated with tuberculosis deaths in the World Health Organization African region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirigia, Joses Muthuri; Muthuri, Rosenabi Deborah Karimi

    2016-06-01

    In 2014, almost half of the global tuberculosis deaths occurred in the World Health Organization (WHO) African Region. Approximately 21.5 % of the 6 060 742 TB cases (new and relapse) reported to the WHO in 2014 were in the African Region. The specific objective of this study was to estimate future gross domestic product (GDP) losses associated with TB deaths in the African Region for use in advocating for better strategies to prevent and control tuberculosis. The cost-of-illness method was used to estimate non-health GDP losses associated with TB deaths. Future non-health GDP losses were discounted at 3 %. The analysis was conducted for three income groups of countries. One-way sensitivity analysis at 5 and 10 % discount rates was undertaken to assess the impact on the expected non-health GDP loss. The 0.753 million tuberculosis deaths that occurred in the African Region in 2014 would be expected to decrease the future non-health GDP by International Dollars (Int$) 50.4 billion. Nearly 40.8, 46.7 and 12.5 % of that loss would come from high and upper-middle- countries or lower-middle- and low-income countries, respectively. The average total non-health GDP loss would be Int$66 872 per tuberculosis death. The average non-health GDP loss per TB death was Int$167 592 for Group 1, Int$69 808 for Group 2 and Int$21 513 for Group 3. Tuberculosis exerts a sizeable economic burden on the economies of the WHO AFR countries. This implies the need to strongly advocate for better strategies to prevent and control tuberculosis and to help countries end the epidemic of tuberculosis by 2030, as envisioned in the United Nations General Assembly resolution on Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

  14. Time to Death after Terminal Withdrawal of Mechanical Ventilation: Specific Respiratory and Physiologic Parameters May Inform Physician Predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, Ann C; Muni, Sarah; Treece, Patsy D; Engelberg, Ruth A; Nielsen, Elizabeth L; Fitzpatrick, Annette L; Curtis, J Randall

    2015-12-01

    Discussions about withdrawal of life-sustaining therapies often include family members of critically ill patients. These conversations should address essential components of the dying process, including expected time to death after withdrawal. The study objective was to aid physician communication about the dying process by identifying predictors of time to death after terminal withdrawal of mechanical ventilation. We conducted an observational analysis from a single-center, before-after evaluation of an intervention to improve palliative care. We studied 330 patients who died after terminal withdrawal of mechanical ventilation. Predictors included patient demographics, laboratory, respiratory, and physiologic variables, and medication use. The median time to death for the entire cohort was 0.58 hours (interquartile range (IQR) 0.22-2.25 hours) after withdrawal of mechanical ventilation. Using Cox regression, independent predictors of shorter time to death included higher positive end-expiratory pressure (per 1 cm H2O hazard ratio [HR], 1.07; 95% CI 1.04-1.11); higher static pressure (per 1 cm H2O HR, 1.03; 95% CI 1.01-1.04); extubation prior to death (HR, 1.41; 95% CI 1.06-1.86); and presence of diabetes (HR, 1.75; 95% CI 1.25-2.44). Higher noninvasive mean arterial pressure predicted longer time to death (per 1 mmHg HR, 0.98; 95% CI 0.97-0.99). Comorbid illness and key respiratory and physiologic parameters may inform physician predictions of time to death after withdrawal of mechanical ventilation. An understanding of the predictors of time to death may facilitate discussions with family members of dying patients and improve communication about end-of-life care.

  15. Predictive biomarkers for death and rehospitalization in comorbid frail elderly heart failure patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pacho, Cristina; Domingo, Mar; Núñez, Raquel; Lupón, Josep; Núñez, Julio; Barallat, Jaume; Moliner, Pedro; de Antonio, Marta; Santesmases, Javier; Cediel, Germán; Roura, Santiago; Pastor, M Cruz; Tor, Jordi; Bayes-Genis, Antoni

    2018-05-09

    Heart failure (HF) is associated with a high rate of readmissions within 30 days post-discharge and in the following year, especially in frail elderly patients. Biomarker data are scarce in this high-risk population. This study assessed the value of early post-discharge circulating levels of ST2, NT-proBNP, CA125, and hs-TnI for predicting 30-day and 1-year outcomes in comorbid frail elderly patients with HF with mainly preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). Blood samples were obtained at the first visit shortly after discharge (4.9 ± 2 days). The primary endpoint was the composite of all-cause mortality or HF-related rehospitalization at 30 days and at 1 year. All-cause mortality alone at one year was also a major endpoint. HF-related rehospitalizations alone were secondary end-points. From February 2014 to November 2016, 522 consecutive patients attending the STOP-HF Clinic were included (57.1% women, age 82 ± 8.7 years, mean Barthel index 70 ± 25, mean Charlson comorbidity index 5.6 ± 2.2). The composite endpoint occurred in 8.6% patients at 30 days and in 38.5% at 1 year. In multivariable analysis, ST2 [hazard ratio (HR) 1.53; 95% CI 1.19-1.97; p = 0.001] was the only predictive biomarker at 30 days; at 1 year, both ST2 (HR 1.34; 95% CI 1.15-1.56; p < 0.001) and NT-proBNP (HR 1.19; 95% CI 1.02-1.40; p = 0.03) remained significant. The addition of ST2 and NT-proBNP into a clinical predictive model increased the AUC from 0.70 to 0.75 at 30 days (p = 0.02) and from 0.71 to 0.74 at 1 year (p < 0.05). For all-cause death at 1 year, ST2 (HR 1.50; 95% CI 1.26-1.80; p < 0.001), and CA125 (HR 1.41; 95% CI 1.21-1.63; p < 0.001) remained independent predictors in multivariable analysis. The addition of ST2 and CA125 into a clinical predictive model increased the AUC from 0.74 to 0.78 (p = 0.03). For HF-related hospitalizations, ST2 was the only predictive biomarker in multivariable analyses, both at 30

  16. Early Echocardiographic Deformation Analysis for the Prediction of Sudden Cardiac Death and Life-Threatening Arrhythmias After Myocardial Infarction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ersbøll, Mads; Valeur, Nana; Andersen, Mads Jønsson

    2013-01-01

    This study sought to hypothesize that global longitudinal strain (GLS) as a measure of infarct size, and mechanical dispersion (MD) as a measure of myocardial deformation heterogeneity, would be of incremental importance for the prediction of sudden cardiac death (SCD) or malignant ventricular...

  17. The association of culling and death rate within 30 days after calving with productivity or reproductive performance in dairy herds in Fukuoka, Southern Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goto, Akira; Nakada, Ken; Katamoto, Hiromu

    2016-05-03

    The incidence of peripartum disorders in dairy herds negatively influences productivity and reproductive performance. Concrete data from local areas are helpful for explaining the importance of peripartum management to dairy farmers. This study was conducted to clarify the association of culling and death rate within 30 days after calving with productivity or reproductive performance in 179 dairy herds in Fukuoka, Southern Japan. A database was compiled from the records of the Livestock Improvement Association of Japan, the Dairy Cooperative Association and the Federation of Agricultural Mutual Relief Association. In this study, we created a comprehensive database of dairy farm production data for epidemiological analysis and used a general linear mixed model to analyze the association of culling and death rate within 30 days after calving with milk production or reproductive performance. The database can be used to describe, analyze and predict the risk of production. A cross-sectional analysis with contrasts was applied to investigate the association of cows served by AI/all cows, pregnant cows/cows served by AI, days open, milk yield and somatic cell counts with culling and death rate within 30 days after calving. The days open value significantly increased with increasing rate of culling and death within 30 days after calving (P for trend <0.001). No significant differences were found for the other comparisons. Our data suggest that proper feeding and management in the dry period may lead to improved postpartum reproductive performance in this dairy cow cohort.

  18. Creation of a Scorecard to Predict In-Hospital Death in Patients Undergoing Operations for Acute Type A Aortic Dissection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leontyev, Sergey; Légaré, Jean-Francois; Borger, Michael A; Buth, Karen J; Funkat, Anne K; Gerhard, Jochann; Mohr, Friedrich W

    2016-05-01

    This study evaluated preoperative predictors of in-hospital death for the surgical treatment of patients with acute type A aortic dissection (Type A) and created an easy-to-use scorecard to predict in-hospital death. We reviewed retrospectively all consecutive patients who underwent operations for acute Type A between 1996 and 2011 at 2 tertiary care institutions. A logistic regression model was created to identify independent preoperative predictors of in-hospital death. The results were used to create a scorecard predicting operative risk. Emergency operations were performed in 534 consecutive patients for acute Type A. Mean age was 61 ± 14 years and 36.3% were women. Critical preoperative state was present in 31% of patients and malperfusion of one or more end organs in 36%. Unadjusted in-hospital mortality was 18.7% and not significantly different between institutions. Independent predictors of in-hospital death were age 50 to 70 years (odds ratio [OR], 3.8; p = 0.001), age older than 70 years (OR, 2.8; p = 0.03), critical preoperative state (OR, 3.2; p risk score based on these variables. The patients were stratified into four risk categories predicting in-hospital death: less than 10%, 10% to 25%, 25% to 50%, and more than 50%. This represents one of the largest series of patients with Type A in which a risk model was created. Using our approach, we have shown that age, critical preoperative state, and malperfusion syndrome were strong independent risk factors for early death and could be used for the preoperative risk assessment. Copyright © 2016 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Bayesian binary regression model: an application to in-hospital death after AMI prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aparecida D. P. Souza

    2004-08-01

    Full Text Available A Bayesian binary regression model is developed to predict death of patients after acute myocardial infarction (AMI. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC methods are used to make inference and to evaluate Bayesian binary regression models. A model building strategy based on Bayes factor is proposed and aspects of model validation are extensively discussed in the paper, including the posterior distribution for the c-index and the analysis of residuals. Risk assessment, based on variables easily available within minutes of the patients' arrival at the hospital, is very important to decide the course of the treatment. The identified model reveals itself strongly reliable and accurate, with a rate of correct classification of 88% and a concordance index of 83%.Um modelo bayesiano de regressão binária é desenvolvido para predizer óbito hospitalar em pacientes acometidos por infarto agudo do miocárdio. Métodos de Monte Carlo via Cadeias de Markov (MCMC são usados para fazer inferência e validação. Uma estratégia para construção de modelos, baseada no uso do fator de Bayes, é proposta e aspectos de validação são extensivamente discutidos neste artigo, incluindo a distribuição a posteriori para o índice de concordância e análise de resíduos. A determinação de fatores de risco, baseados em variáveis disponíveis na chegada do paciente ao hospital, é muito importante para a tomada de decisão sobre o curso do tratamento. O modelo identificado se revela fortemente confiável e acurado, com uma taxa de classificação correta de 88% e um índice de concordância de 83%.

  20. Predicting product life cycle using fuzzy neural network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Mohammadi

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available One of the most important tasks of science in different fields is to find the relationships among various phenomena in order to predict future. Production and service organizations are not exceptions and they should predict future to survive. Predicting the life cycle of the organization's products is one of the most important prediction cases in an organization. Predicting the product life cycle provides an opportunity to identify the product position and help to get a better insight about competitors. This paper deals with the predictability of the product life cycle with Adaptive Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS. The Population of this study was Pegah Fars products and the sample was this company's cheese products. In this regard, this paper attempts to model and predict the product life cycle of cheese products in Pegah Fars Company. In this due, a designed questionnaire was distributed among some experts, distributors and retailers and seven independent variables were selected. In this survey, ANFIS sales forecasting technique was employed and MATLAB software was used for data analysis. The results confirmed ANFIS as a good method to predict the product life cycle.

  1. Observed versus predicted cardiovascular events and all-cause death in HIV infection: a longitudinal cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Socio, Giuseppe Vittorio; Pucci, Giacomo; Baldelli, Franco; Schillaci, Giuseppe

    2017-06-12

    The aim of the study was to assess the applicability of an algorithm predicting 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) generated in the setting of the Framingham Heart Study to a real-life, contemporary Italian cohort of HIV-positive subjects. The study was an observational longitudinal cohort study. The probability for 10-year CVD events according to the Framingham algorithm was assessed in 369 consecutive HIV-positive participants free from overt CVD enrolled in 2004, who were followed for a median of 10.0 years (interquartile range, 9.1-10.1). Cardiovascular events included myocardial infarction, hospitalized heart failure, revascularized angina, sudden cardiac death, stroke, peripheral arterial disease. Over 3097 person-years of observation, we observed a total of 34 CVD events, whereas Framingham algorithm predicted the occurrence of 34.3 CVD events. CVD event rate was 11.0/1000 person-years of follow-up. In a receiver operating characteristics curve analysis, Framingham risk equation showed an excellent predictive value for incident CVD events (c-statistics, 0.83; 95% confidence interval, 0.76-0.90). In a multivariable Cox analysis, age, smoking and diabetes were independent predictors of CVD events. All-cause death rate was 20.0/1000 person-years of follow-up (n = 62 deaths). Causes of death included liver diseases (18), malignancies (14), AIDS-related (11); cardiovascular (9) and others (10). In a Cox analysis, age, AIDS diagnosis and chronic hepatitis were independent predictors of death. Observed CVD events in HIV-infected patients were well predicted by Framingham algorithm. Established major CVD risk factors are the strongest determinants of CVD morbidity in an Italian contemporary cohort of HIV-positive subjects. Interventions to modify traditional risk factors are urgently needed in HIV people.

  2. Wind farm production prediction - The Zephyr model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Landberg, L. [Risoe National Lab., Wind Energy Dept., Roskilde (Denmark); Giebel, G. [Risoe National Lab., Wind Energy Dept., Roskilde (Denmark); Madsen, H. [IMM (DTU), Kgs. Lyngby (Denmark); Nielsen, T.S. [IMM (DTU), Kgs. Lyngby (Denmark); Joergensen, J.U. [Danish Meteorologisk Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Lauersen, L. [Danish Meteorologisk Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Toefting, J. [Elsam, Fredericia (DK); Christensen, H.S. [Eltra, Fredericia (Denmark); Bjerge, C. [SEAS, Haslev (Denmark)

    2002-06-01

    This report describes a project - funded by the Danish Ministry of Energy and the Environment - which developed a next generation prediction system called Zephyr. The Zephyr system is a merging between two state-of-the-art prediction systems: Prediktor of Risoe National Laboratory and WPPT of IMM at the Danish Technical University. The numerical weather predictions were generated by DMI's HIRLAM model. Due to technical difficulties programming the system, only the computational core and a very simple version of the originally very complex system were developed. The project partners were: Risoe, DMU, DMI, Elsam, Eltra, Elkraft System, SEAS and E2. (au)

  3. Machine learning applied to the prediction of citrus production

    OpenAIRE

    Díaz Rodríguez, Susana Irene; Mazza, Silvia M.; Fernández-Combarro Álvarez, Elías; Giménez, Laura I.; Gaiad, José E.

    2017-01-01

    An in-depth knowledge about variables affecting production is required in order to predict global production and take decisions in agriculture. Machine learning is a technique used in agricultural planning and precision agriculture. This work (i) studies the effectiveness of machine learning techniques for predicting orchards production; and (ii) variables affecting this production were also identified. Data from 964 orchards of lemon, mandarin, and orange in Corrientes, Argentina are analyse...

  4. Genetic testing to predict sudden cardiac death: current perspectives and future goals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia G. Priori

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available It is known that monogenic traits may predispose young and otherwise healthy individuals to die suddenly. Diseases such as Long QT Syndrome, Brugada Syndrome and Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy are well known causes of arrhythmic death in young individuals. For several years the concept of “genetic predisposition” to sudden cardiac death has been limited to these uncommon diseases. In the last few years clinical data have supported the view that risk of dying suddenly may cluster in families, supporting the hypothesis of a genetic component for sudden cardiac death. In this review I will try to provide an overview of current knowledge about genetics of sudden death. I will approach this topic by discussing first where we stand in the use of genetics for risk stratification and therapy selection in monogenic diseases and I will then move to discuss the contribution of genetics to patient profiling in acquired cardiovascular diseases.

  5. Predicting death from kala-azar: construction, development, and validation of a score set and accompanying software.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, Dorcas Lamounier; Rocha, Regina Lunardi; Chaves, Eldo de Brito Ferreira; Batista, Vivianny Gonçalves de Vasconcelos; Costa, Henrique Lamounier; Costa, Carlos Henrique Nery

    2016-01-01

    Early identification of patients at higher risk of progressing to severe disease and death is crucial for implementing therapeutic and preventive measures; this could reduce the morbidity and mortality from kala-azar. We describe a score set composed of four scales in addition to software for quick assessment of the probability of death from kala-azar at the point of care. Data from 883 patients diagnosed between September 2005 and August 2008 were used to derive the score set, and data from 1,031 patients diagnosed between September 2008 and November 2013 were used to validate the models. Stepwise logistic regression analyses were used to derive the optimal multivariate prediction models. Model performance was assessed by its discriminatory accuracy. A computational specialist system (Kala-Cal(r)) was developed to speed up the calculation of the probability of death based on clinical scores. The clinical prediction score showed high discrimination (area under the curve [AUC] 0.90) for distinguishing death from survival for children ≤2 years old. Performance improved after adding laboratory variables (AUC 0.93). The clinical score showed equivalent discrimination (AUC 0.89) for older children and adults, which also improved after including laboratory data (AUC 0.92). The score set also showed a high, although lower, discrimination when applied to the validation cohort. This score set and Kala-Cal(r) software may help identify individuals with the greatest probability of death. The associated software may speed up the calculation of the probability of death based on clinical scores and assist physicians in decision-making.

  6. Predicting women purchase intention for green food products in Indonesia

    OpenAIRE

    Sudiyanti, Sudiyanti

    2009-01-01

    Masteroppgave i økonomi og administrasjon - Universitetet i Agder 2009 This study investigated the applicability of the Theory of Planned Behavior in predicting women consumers on their intention towards purchasing green food products among 406 participants. Using linear regression, five independent variables had been examined: attitude towards green food products, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control, and perceived difficulty in predicting purchase intention. The ...

  7. Notes from the Field: Death Following Ingestion of an Edible Marijuana Product--Colorado, March 2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hancock-Allen, Jessica B; Barker, Lisa; VanDyke, Michael; Holmes, Dawn B

    2015-07-24

    In March 2014, the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment (CDPHE) learned of the death of a man aged 19 years after consuming an edible marijuana product. CDPHE reviewed autopsy and police reports to assess factors associated with his death and to guide prevention efforts. The decedent's friend, aged 23 years, had purchased marijuana cookies and provided one to the decedent. A police report indicated that initially the decedent ate only a single piece of his cookie, as directed by the sales clerk. Approximately 30-60 minutes later, not feeling any effects, he consumed the remainder of the cookie. During the next 2 hours, he reportedly exhibited erratic speech and hostile behaviors. Approximately 3.5 hours after initial ingestion, and 2.5 hours after consuming the remainder of the cookie, he jumped off a fourth floor balcony and died from trauma. The autopsy, performed 29 hours after time of death, found marijuana intoxication as a chief contributing factor. Quantitative toxicologic analyses for drugs of abuse, synthetic cannabinoid, and cathinones ("bath salts") were performed on chest cavity blood by gas chromatography and mass spectrometry. The only confirmed findings were cannabinoids (7.2 ng/mL delta-9 tetrahydrocannabinol [THC] and 49 ng/mL delta-9 carboxy-THC, an inactive marijuana metabolite). The legal whole blood limit of delta-9 THC for driving a vehicle in Colorado is 5.0 ng/mL. This was the first reported death in Colorado linked to marijuana consumption without evidence of polysubstance use since the state approved recreational use of marijuana in 2012.

  8. Sudden cardiac death and pump failure death prediction in chronic heart failure by combining ECG and clinical markers in an integrated risk model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orini, Michele; Mincholé, Ana; Monasterio, Violeta; Cygankiewicz, Iwona; Bayés de Luna, Antonio; Martínez, Juan Pablo

    2017-01-01

    Background Sudden cardiac death (SCD) and pump failure death (PFD) are common endpoints in chronic heart failure (CHF) patients, but prevention strategies are different. Currently used tools to specifically predict these endpoints are limited. We developed risk models to specifically assess SCD and PFD risk in CHF by combining ECG markers and clinical variables. Methods The relation of clinical and ECG markers with SCD and PFD risk was assessed in 597 patients enrolled in the MUSIC (MUerte Súbita en Insuficiencia Cardiaca) study. ECG indices included: turbulence slope (TS), reflecting autonomic dysfunction; T-wave alternans (TWA), reflecting ventricular repolarization instability; and T-peak-to-end restitution (ΔαTpe) and T-wave morphology restitution (TMR), both reflecting changes in dispersion of repolarization due to heart rate changes. Standard clinical indices were also included. Results The indices with the greatest SCD prognostic impact were gender, New York Heart Association (NYHA) class, left ventricular ejection fraction, TWA, ΔαTpe and TMR. For PFD, the indices were diabetes, NYHA class, ΔαTpe and TS. Using a model with only clinical variables, the hazard ratios (HRs) for SCD and PFD for patients in the high-risk group (fifth quintile of risk score) with respect to patients in the low-risk group (first and second quintiles of risk score) were both greater than 4. HRs for SCD and PFD increased to 9 and 11 when using a model including only ECG markers, and to 14 and 13, when combining clinical and ECG markers. Conclusion The inclusion of ECG markers capturing complementary pro-arrhythmic and pump failure mechanisms into risk models based only on standard clinical variables substantially improves prediction of SCD and PFD in CHF patients. PMID:29020031

  9. Predicting in-hospital death during acute presentation with pulmonary embolism to facilitate early discharge and outpatient management.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jerrett K Lau

    Full Text Available Pulmonary embolism continues to be a significant cause of death. The aim was to derive and validate a risk prediction model for in-hospital death after acute pulmonary embolism to identify low risk patients suitable for outpatient management.A confirmed acute pulmonary embolism database of 1,426 consecutive patients admitted to a tertiary-center (2000-2012 was analyzed, with odd and even years as derivation and validation cohorts respectively. Risk stratification for in-hospital death was performed using multivariable logistic-regression modelling. Models were compared using receiver-operating characteristic-curve and decision curve analyses.In-hospital mortality was 3.6% in the derivation cohort (n = 693. Adding day-1 sodium and bicarbonate to simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (sPESI significantly increased the C-statistic for predicting in-hospital death (0.71 to 0.86, P = 0.001. The validation cohort yielded similar results (n = 733, C-statistic 0.85. The new model was associated with a net reclassification improvement of 0.613, and an integrated discrimination improvement of 0.067. The new model also increased the C-statistic for predicting 30-day mortality compared to sPESI alone (0.74 to 0.83, P = 0.002. Decision curve analysis demonstrated superior clinical benefit with the use of the new model to guide admission for pulmonary embolism, resulting in 43 fewer admissions per 100 presentations based on a risk threshold for admission of 2%.A risk model incorporating sodium, bicarbonate, and the sPESI provides accurate risk prediction of acute in-hospital mortality after pulmonary embolism. Our novel model identifies patients with pulmonary embolism who are at low risk and who may be suitable for outpatient management.

  10. p53 Activation following Rift Valley fever virus infection contributes to cell death and viral production.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dana Austin

    Full Text Available Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV is an emerging viral zoonosis that is responsible for devastating outbreaks among livestock and is capable of causing potentially fatal disease in humans. Studies have shown that upon infection, certain viruses have the capability of utilizing particular cellular signaling pathways to propagate viral infection. Activation of p53 is important for the DNA damage signaling cascade, initiation of apoptosis, cell cycle arrest and transcriptional regulation of multiple genes. The current study focuses on the role of p53 signaling in RVFV infection and viral replication. These results show an up-regulation of p53 phosphorylation at several serine sites after RVFV MP-12 infection that is highly dependent on the viral protein NSs. qRT-PCR data showed a transcriptional up-regulation of several p53 targeted genes involved in cell cycle and apoptosis regulation following RVFV infection. Cell viability assays demonstrate that loss of p53 results in less RVFV induced cell death. Furthermore, decreased viral titers in p53 null cells indicate that RVFV utilizes p53 to enhance viral production. Collectively, these experiments indicate that the p53 signaling pathway is utilized during RVFV infection to induce cell death and increase viral production.

  11. The bioenergetic signature of isogenic colon cancer cells predicts the cell death response to treatment with 3-bromopyruvate, iodoacetate or 5-fluorouracil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez-Aragó, María; Cuezva, José M

    2011-02-08

    Metabolic reprogramming resulting in enhanced glycolysis is a phenotypic trait of cancer cells, which is imposed by the tumor microenvironment and is linked to the down-regulation of the catalytic subunit of the mitochondrial H+-ATPase (β-F1-ATPase). The bioenergetic signature is a protein ratio (β-F1-ATPase/GAPDH), which provides an estimate of glucose metabolism in tumors and serves as a prognostic indicator for cancer patients. Targeting energetic metabolism could be a viable alternative to conventional anticancer chemotherapies. Herein, we document that the bioenergetic signature of isogenic colon cancer cells provides a gauge to predict the cell-death response to the metabolic inhibitors, 3-bromopyruvate (3BrP) and iodoacetate (IA), and the anti-metabolite, 5-fluorouracil (5-FU). The bioenergetic signature of the cells was determined by western blotting. Aerobic glycolysis was determined from lactate production rates. The cell death was analyzed by fluorescence microscopy and flow cytometry. Cellular ATP concentrations were determined using bioluminiscence. Pearson's correlation coefficient was applied to assess the relationship between the bioenergetic signature and the cell death response. In vivo tumor regression activities of the compounds were assessed using a xenograft mouse model injected with the highly glycolytic HCT116 colocarcinoma cells. We demonstrate that the bioenergetic signature of isogenic HCT116 cancer cells inversely correlates with the potential to execute necrosis in response to 3BrP or IA treatment. Conversely, the bioenergetic signature directly correlates with the potential to execute apoptosis in response to 5-FU treatment in the same cells. However, despite the large differences observed in the in vitro cell-death responses associated with 3BrP, IA and 5-FU, the in vivo tumor regression activities of these agents were comparable. Overall, we suggest that the determination of the bioenergetic signature of colon carcinomas could

  12. BMD PREDICTION OF DEATH IS ENCAPSULATED BY THE MORPHOLOGICAL ATHEROSCLEROSIS CALCIFICATION DISTRIBUTION (MACD) INDEX

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ganz, Melanie; Nielsen, Mads; Karsdal, Morten

    2009-01-01

    .3±0.3 years and of which CVD, cancer, and all cause deaths were recorded. The spine BMD and aortic calcification markers, AC24 and the recently proposed Morphological Atherosclerosis Calcification Distribution (MACD) index, were quantified from DXA scans and lateral X-rays respectively. The MACD...

  13. In-hospital Death Prediction by Multilevel Logistic Regressin in Patients with Acute Coronary Syndromes

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Reissigová, Jindra; Monhart, Z.; Zvárová, Jana; Hanzlíček, Petr; Grünfeldová, H.; Janský, P.; Vojáček, J.; Widimský, P.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 9, č. 1 (2013), s. 11-17 ISSN 1801-5603 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : multilevel logistic regression * acute coronary syndromes * risk factors * in-hospital death Subject RIV: IN - Informatics, Computer Science http://www.ejbi.org/img/ejbi/2013/1/Reissigova_en.pdf

  14. Predicting Production Costs for Advanced Aerospace Vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bao, Han P.; Samareh, J. A.; Weston, R. P.

    2002-01-01

    For early design concepts, the conventional approach to cost is normally some kind of parametric weight-based cost model. There is now ample evidence that this approach can be misleading and inaccurate. By the nature of its development, a parametric cost model requires historical data and is valid only if the new design is analogous to those for which the model was derived. Advanced aerospace vehicles have no historical production data and are nowhere near the vehicles of the past. Using an existing weight-based cost model would only lead to errors and distortions of the true production cost. This paper outlines the development of a process-based cost model in which the physical elements of the vehicle are soared according to a first-order dynamics model. This theoretical cost model, first advocated by early work at MIT, has been expanded to cover the basic structures of an advanced aerospace vehicle. Elemental costs based on the geometry of the design can be summed up to provide an overall estimation of the total production cost for a design configuration. This capability to directly link any design configuration to realistic cost estimation is a key requirement for high payoff MDO problems. Another important consideration in this paper is the handling of part or product complexity. Here the concept of cost modulus is introduced to take into account variability due to different materials, sizes, shapes, precision of fabrication, and equipment requirements. The most important implication of the development of the proposed process-based cost model is that different design configurations can now be quickly related to their cost estimates in a seamless calculation process easily implemented on any spreadsheet tool.

  15. Predictors of death and production performance of layer chickens in opened and sealed pens in a tropical savannah environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shittu, Aminu; Raji, Abdullahi Abdullahi; Madugu, Shuaibu A; Hassan, Akinola Waheed; Fasina, Folorunso Oludayo

    2014-09-12

    Layer chickens are exposed to high risks of production losses and mortality with impact on farm profitability. The harsh tropical climate and severe disease outbreaks, poor biosecurity, sub-minimal vaccination and treatment protocols, poor management practices, poor chick quality, feed-associated causes, and unintended accidents oftentimes aggravate mortality and negatively affect egg production. The objectives of this study were to estimate the probability of survival and evaluate risk factors for death under different intensive housing conditions in a tropical climate, and to assess the production performance in the housing systems. Daily mean mortality percentages and egg production figures were significantly lower and higher in the sealed pens and open houses (P ratio for mortality of layers raised in sealed pens was 0.568 (56.8%). Reasons for spiked mortality in layer chickens may not always be associated with disease. Hot-dry climatic environment is associated with heat stress, waning immunity and inefficient feed usage and increase probability of death with reduced egg production; usage of environmentally controlled building in conditions where environmental temperature may rise significantly above 25°C will reduce this impact. Since younger birds (19-38 weeks) are at higher risk of death due to stress of coming into production, management changes and diseases, critical implementation of protocols that will reduce death at this precarious period becomes mandatory. Whether older chickens' better protection from death is associated with many prophylactic and metaphylactic regimen of medications/vaccination will need further investigation.

  16. Molecular markers for predicting end-products quality of wheat ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Molecular markers for predicting end-products quality of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) ... African Journal of Biotechnology. Journal Home · ABOUT ... Four new Saudi wheat lines (KSU 102, KSU 103, KSU 105 and KSU 106) and two. American ...

  17. Recent Improvements in IERS Rapid Service/Prediction Center Products

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Stamatakos, N; Luzum, B; Wooden, W

    2007-01-01

    ...) at USNO has made several improvements to its combination and pre- diction products. These improvements are due to the inclusion of new input data sources as well as modifications to the combination and prediction algorithms...

  18. The Doppler echocardiographic myocardial performance index predicts left-ventricular dilation and cardiac death after myocardial infarction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, J E; Søndergaard, E; Poulsen, S H

    2001-01-01

    To investigate the value of the Doppler-derived myocardial performance index to predict early left-ventricular (LV) dilation and cardiac death after a first acute myocardial infarction (AMI), Doppler echocardiography was performed within 24 h of hospital admission, on day 5, 1 and 3 months after...... AMI in 125 consecutive patients. The index measured on day 1 correlated well with the change in end-diastolic volume index observed from day 1 to 3 months following AMI (r = 0.66, p 0.0001). One-year survival in patients with Doppler index index > or = 0......, we conclude that the Doppler echocardiographic myocardial performance index is a predictor of LV dilation and cardiac death after a first AMI....

  19. Can sudden cardiac death in the young be predicted and prevented? Lessons from autopsy for the emergency physician.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Jennifer L; Chang, Anna Marie; Cesar, Sergi; Sarquella-Brugada, Georgia

    2018-06-01

    Sudden unexpected death in the young, though rare, is devastating for both the family and the community. Although only 1.3 to 8.5 cases of sudden cardiac death (SCD) occur per 100 000 young people, autopsy is often inconclusive. Many causes of SCD are related to autosomal dominant inherited risk, however; therefore, answers are important for survivors. Causes of autopsy-positive SCD in young patients include hypertrophic cardiomyopathy and arrhythmogenic right ventricular dysplasia. Autopsy-negative SCD has been related to inherited arrhythmogenic causes such as long QT syndrome, Brugada syndrome, catecholaminergic polymorphic ventricular tachycardia, Wolff- Parkinson-White syndrome, and idiopathic ventricular fibrillation. The important question for the emergency physician is how SCD can be predicted and prevented in the young so that there is no need for an autopsy.

  20. Impact of the basal metabolic ratio in predicting early deaths after allogeneic stem cell transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishiwaki, Satoshi; Miyamura, Koichi; Seto, Aika; Watanabe, Keisuke; Yanagisawa, Mayumi; Imahashi, Nobuhiko; Shimba, Makoto; Yasuda, Takahiko; Kuwatsuka, Yachiyo; Oba, Taku; Terakura, Seitaro; Kodera, Yoshihisa

    2009-09-01

    Early deaths after allogeneic stem cell transplantation (allo-SCT) are of major concern. On the assumption that both decreased and increased basal metabolism might relate to early deaths, we analyzed the risk factors for overall survival to days 30 (OS30) and 60 (OS60). The Harris-Benedict equation was used to calculate basal metabolism. Comparing a patient's basal metabolism (PBM) calculated from pretransplant body weight with the standard basal metabolism (SBM) calculated from standard body weight (body mass index (BMI) = 22), we defined the basal metabolic ratio (BMR) as a parameter (BMR = PBM/SBM). We retrospectively analyzed 360 adult patients transplanted between 1997 and 2006 at a single center in Japan. A multivariate analysis of OS30 showed risk factors to be: BMR BMR; LBR) (P = 0.01), BMR > 1.05 (high BMR; HBR) (P = 0.005) and non-complete remission (non-CR) (P 5 0.001), whereas a multivariate analysis of OS60 showed those risk factors to be: LBR (P = 0.02), HBR (P = 0.04), non-CR (P = 0.002), and performance status BMR BMR; ABR) (96.8 and 90.3% for ABR, 87.1 and 76.2% for LBR, and 87.8 and 81.1% for HBR). In conclusion, BMR could prove to be a predictor of early death after allo-SCT.

  1. Mitochondria Superoxide Anion Production Contributes to Geranylgeraniol-Induced Death in Leishmania amazonensis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milene Valéria Lopes

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Here we demonstrate the activity of geranylgeraniol, the major bioactive constituent from seeds of Bixa orellana, against Leishmania amazonensis. Geranylgeraniol was identified through 1H and 13C nuclear magnetic resonance imaging and DEPT. The compound inhibited the promastigote and intracellular amastigote forms, with IC50 of 11±1.0 and 17.5±0.7 μg/mL, respectively. This compound was also more toxic to parasites than to macrophages and did not cause lysis in human blood cells. Morphological and ultrastructural changes induced by geranylgeraniol were observed in the protozoan by electronic microscopy and included mainly mitochondria alterations and an abnormal chromatin condensation in the nucleus. These alterations were confirmed by Rh 123 and TUNEL assays. Additionally, geranylgeraniol induces an increase in superoxide anion production. Collectively, our in vitro studies indicate geranylgeraniol as a selective antileishmanial that appears to be mediated by apoptosis-like cell death.

  2. Signatures of energy flux in particle production: a black hole birth cry and death gasp

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Good, Michael R.R. [Department of Physics, Nazarbayev University,53 Kabanbay Batyr Ave., Astana, Republic of (Kazakhstan); Ong, Yen Chin [Nordic Institute for Theoretical Physics, KTH Royal Institute of Technology Stockholm University,Roslagstullsbacken 23, SE-106 91 Stockholm (Sweden)

    2015-07-27

    It is recently argued that if the Hawking radiation process is unitary, then a black hole’s mass cannot be monotonically decreasing. We examine the time dependent particle count and negative energy flux in the non-trivial conformal vacuum via the moving mirror approach. A new, exactly unitary solution is presented which emits a characteristic above-thermal positive energy burst, a thermal plateau, and negative energy flux. It is found that the characteristic positive energy flare and thermal plateau is observed in the particle outflow. However, the results of time dependent particle production show no overt indication of negative energy flux. Therefore, a black hole’s birth cry is detectable by asymptotic observers via particle count, whereas its death gasp is not.

  3. Diagnostic accuracy of S100B urinary testing at birth in full-term asphyxiated newborns to predict neonatal death.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diego Gazzolo

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Neonatal death in full-term infants who suffer from perinatal asphyxia (PA is a major subject of investigation, since few tools exist to predict patients at risk of ominous outcome. We studied the possibility that urine S100B measurement may identify which PA-affected infants are at risk of early postnatal death. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In a cross-sectional study between January 1, 2001 and December 1, 2006 we measured S100B protein in urine collected from term infants (n = 132, 60 of whom suffered PA. According to their outcome at 7 days, infants with PA were subsequently classified either as asphyxiated infants complicated by hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy with no ominous outcome (HIE Group; n = 48, or as newborns who died within the first post-natal week (Ominous Outcome Group; n = 12. Routine laboratory variables, cerebral ultrasound, neurological patterns and urine concentrations of S100B protein were determined at first urination and after 24, 48 and 96 hours. The severity of illness in the first 24 hours after birth was measured using the Score for Neonatal Acute Physiology-Perinatal Extension (SNAP-PE. Urine S100B levels were higher from the first urination in the ominous outcome group than in healthy or HIE Groups (p1.0 microg/L S100B had a sensitivity/specificity of 100% for predicting neonatal death. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Increased S100B protein urine levels in term newborns suffering PA seem to suggest a higher risk of neonatal death for these infants.

  4. Nitric oxide production is not required for dihydrosphingosine-induced cell death in tobacco BY-2 cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Da Silva, Daniel; Lachaud, Christophe; Cotelle, Valérie; Brière, Christian; Grat, Sabine; Mazars, Christian; Thuleau, Patrice

    2011-05-01

    Sphinganine or dihydrosphingosine (d18:0, DHS), one of the most abundant free sphingoid Long Chain Base (LCB) in plants, is known to induce a calcium dependent programmed cell death (PCD) in tobacco BY-2 cells. In addition, we have recently shown that DHS triggers a production of H2O2, via the activation of NADPH oxidase(s). However, this production of H2O2 is not correlated with the DHS-induced cell death but would rather be associated with basal cell defense mechanisms. In the present study, we extend our current knowledge of the DHS signaling pathway, by demonstrating that DHS also promotes a production of nitric oxide (NO) in tobacco BY-2 cells. As for H2O2, this NO production is not necessary for cell death induction. 

  5. Streptococcus sanguinis induces foam cell formation and cell death of macrophages in association with production of reactive oxygen species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okahashi, Nobuo; Okinaga, Toshinori; Sakurai, Atsuo; Terao, Yutaka; Nakata, Masanobu; Nakashima, Keisuke; Shintani, Seikou; Kawabata, Shigetada; Ooshima, Takashi; Nishihara, Tatsuji

    2011-10-01

    Streptococcus sanguinis, a normal inhabitant of the human oral cavity, is a common streptococcal species implicated in infective endocarditis. Herein, we investigated the effects of infection with S. sanguinis on foam cell formation and cell death of macrophages. Infection with S. sanguinis stimulated foam cell formation of THP-1, a human macrophage cell line. At a multiplicity of infection >100, S. sanguinis-induced cell death of the macrophages. Viable bacterial infection was required to trigger cell death because heat-inactivated S. sanguinis did not induce cell death. The production of cytokines interleukin-1β and tumor necrosis factor-α from macrophages was also stimulated during bacterial infection. Inhibition of the production of reactive oxygen species (ROS) resulted in reduced cell death, suggesting an association of ROS with cell death. Furthermore, S. sanguinis-induced cell death appeared to be independent of activation of inflammasomes, because cleavage of procaspase-1 was not evident in infected macrophages. © 2011 Federation of European Microbiological Societies. Published by Blackwell Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Machine learning applied to the prediction of citrus production

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Díaz, I.; Mazza, S.M.; Combarro, E.F.; Giménez, L.I.; Gaiad, J.E.

    2017-07-01

    An in-depth knowledge about variables affecting production is required in order to predict global production and take decisions in agriculture. Machine learning is a technique used in agricultural planning and precision agriculture. This work (i) studies the effectiveness of machine learning techniques for predicting orchards production; and (ii) variables affecting this production were also identified. Data from 964 orchards of lemon, mandarin, and orange in Corrientes, Argentina are analysed. Graphic and analytical descriptive statistics, correlation coefficients, principal component analysis and Biplot were performed. Production was predicted via M5-Prime, a model regression tree constructor which produces a classification based on piecewise linear functions. For all the species studied, the most informative variable was the trees' age; in mandarin and orange orchards, age was followed by between and within row distances; irrigation also affected mandarin production. Also, the performance of M5-Prime in the prediction of production is adequate, as shown when measured with correlation coefficients (~0.8) and relative mean absolute error (~0.1). These results show that M5-Prime is an appropriate method to classify citrus orchards according to production and, in addition, it allows for identifying the most informative variables affecting production by tree.

  7. Machine learning applied to the prediction of citrus production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Díaz, I.; Mazza, S.M.; Combarro, E.F.; Giménez, L.I.; Gaiad, J.E.

    2017-01-01

    An in-depth knowledge about variables affecting production is required in order to predict global production and take decisions in agriculture. Machine learning is a technique used in agricultural planning and precision agriculture. This work (i) studies the effectiveness of machine learning techniques for predicting orchards production; and (ii) variables affecting this production were also identified. Data from 964 orchards of lemon, mandarin, and orange in Corrientes, Argentina are analysed. Graphic and analytical descriptive statistics, correlation coefficients, principal component analysis and Biplot were performed. Production was predicted via M5-Prime, a model regression tree constructor which produces a classification based on piecewise linear functions. For all the species studied, the most informative variable was the trees' age; in mandarin and orange orchards, age was followed by between and within row distances; irrigation also affected mandarin production. Also, the performance of M5-Prime in the prediction of production is adequate, as shown when measured with correlation coefficients (~0.8) and relative mean absolute error (~0.1). These results show that M5-Prime is an appropriate method to classify citrus orchards according to production and, in addition, it allows for identifying the most informative variables affecting production by tree.

  8. Machine learning applied to the prediction of citrus production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irene Díaz

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available An in-depth knowledge about variables affecting production is required in order to predict global production and take decisions in agriculture. Machine learning is a technique used in agricultural planning and precision agriculture. This work (i studies the effectiveness of machine learning techniques for predicting orchards production; and (ii variables affecting this production were also identified. Data from 964 orchards of lemon, mandarin, and orange in Corrientes, Argentina are analysed. Graphic and analytical descriptive statistics, correlation coefficients, principal component analysis and Biplot were performed. Production was predicted via M5-Prime, a model regression tree constructor which produces a classification based on piecewise linear functions. For all the species studied, the most informative variable was the trees’ age; in mandarin and orange orchards, age was followed by between and within row distances; irrigation also affected mandarin production. Also, the performance of M5-Prime in the prediction of production is adequate, as shown when measured with correlation coefficients (~0.8 and relative mean absolute error (~0.1. These results show that M5-Prime is an appropriate method to classify citrus orchards according to production and, in addition, it allows for identifying the most informative variables affecting production by tree.

  9. Trends, productivity losses, and associated medical conditions among toxoplasmosis deaths in the United States, 2000-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cummings, Patricia L; Kuo, Tony; Javanbakht, Marjan; Sorvillo, Frank

    2014-11-01

    Few studies have quantified toxoplasmosis mortality, associated medical conditions, and productivity losses in the United States. We examined national multiple cause of death data and estimated productivity losses caused by toxoplasmosis during 2000-2010. A matched case-control analysis examined associations between comorbid medical conditions and toxoplasmosis deaths. In total, 789 toxoplasmosis deaths were identified during the 11-year study period. Blacks and Hispanics had the highest toxoplasmosis mortality compared with whites. Several medical conditions were associated with toxoplasmosis deaths, including human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), lymphoma, leukemia, and connective tissue disorders. The number of toxoplasmosis deaths with an HIV codiagnosis declined from 2000 to 2010; the numbers without such a codiagnosis remained static. Cumulative disease-related productivity losses for the 11-year period were nearly $815 million. Although toxoplasmosis mortality has declined in the last decade, the infection remains costly and is an important cause of preventable death among non-HIV subgroups. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

  10. Performance-based regulation: enterprise responsibility for reducing death, injury, and disease caused by consumer products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugarman, Stephen D

    2009-12-01

    This article offers a bold new idea for confronting the staggering level of death, injury, and disease caused by five consumer products: cigarettes, alcohol, guns, junk food, and motor vehicles. Business leaders try to frame these negative outcomes as "collateral damage" that is someone else's problem. That framing not only is morally objectionable but also overlooks the possibility that, with proper prodding, industry could substantially lessen these public health disasters. I seek to reframe the public perception of who is responsible and propose to deploy a promising approach called "performance-based regulation" to combat the problem. Performance-based regulation would impose on manufacturers a legal obligation to reduce the negative social costs of their products. Rather than involving them in litigation or forcing them to operate differently (as "command-and-control" regimes do), performance-based regulation allows the firms to determine how best to decrease bad public health consequences. Like other public health strategies, performance-based regulation focuses on those who are far more likely than individual consumers to achieve real gains. Analogous to a tax on causing harm that exceeds a threshold level, performance-based regulation seeks to harness private initiative in pursuit of the public good.

  11. A single-item self-report medication adherence question predicts hospitalisation and death in patients with heart failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jia-Rong; DeWalt, Darren A; Baker, David W; Schillinger, Dean; Ruo, Bernice; Bibbins-Domingo, Kristen; Macabasco-O'Connell, Aurelia; Holmes, George M; Broucksou, Kimberly A; Erman, Brian; Hawk, Victoria; Cene, Crystal W; Jones, Christine DeLong; Pignone, Michael

    2014-09-01

    To determine whether a single-item self-report medication adherence question predicts hospitalisation and death in patients with heart failure. Poor medication adherence is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Having a simple means of identifying suboptimal medication adherence could help identify at-risk patients for interventions. We performed a prospective cohort study in 592 participants with heart failure within a four-site randomised trial. Self-report medication adherence was assessed at baseline using a single-item question: 'Over the past seven days, how many times did you miss a dose of any of your heart medication?' Participants who reported no missing doses were defined as fully adherent, and those missing more than one dose were considered less than fully adherent. The primary outcome was combined all-cause hospitalisation or death over one year and the secondary endpoint was heart failure hospitalisation. Outcomes were assessed with blinded chart reviews, and heart failure outcomes were determined by a blinded adjudication committee. We used negative binomial regression to examine the relationship between medication adherence and outcomes. Fifty-two percent of participants were 52% male, mean age was 61 years, and 31% were of New York Heart Association class III/IV at enrolment; 72% of participants reported full adherence to their heart medicine at baseline. Participants with full medication adherence had a lower rate of all-cause hospitalisation and death (0·71 events/year) compared with those with any nonadherence (0·86 events/year): adjusted-for-site incidence rate ratio was 0·83, fully adjusted incidence rate ratio 0·68. Incidence rate ratios were similar for heart failure hospitalisations. A single medication adherence question at baseline predicts hospitalisation and death over one year in heart failure patients. Medication adherence is associated with all-cause and heart failure-related hospitalisation and death in heart

  12. After Aylan Kurdi: How Tweeting About Death, Threat, and Harm Predict Increased Expressions of Solidarity With Refugees Over Time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Laura G E; McGarty, Craig; Thomas, Emma F

    2018-04-01

    Viral social media content has been heralded for its power to transform policy, but online responses are often derided as "slacktivism." This raises the questions of what drives viral communications and what is their effect on support for social change. We addressed these issues in relation to Twitter discussions about Aylan Kurdi, a child refugee who died en route to the European Union. We developed a longitudinal paradigm to analyze 41,253 tweets posted 1 week before the images of Aylan Kurdi emerged, the week they emerged, and 10 weeks afterward-at the time of the Paris terror attacks. Tweeting about death before the images emerged predicted tweeting about Aylan Kurdi, and this, sustained by discussion of harm and threat, predicted the expression of solidarity with refugees 10 weeks later. Results suggest that processes of normative conflict and communication can be intertwined in promoting support for social change.

  13. Death and Death Anxiety

    OpenAIRE

    Gonca Karakus; Zehra Ozturk; Lut Tamam

    2012-01-01

    Although death and life concepts seem so different from each other, some believe that death and life as a whole that death is accepted as the goal of life and death completes life. In different cultures, societies and disciplines, there have been very different definitions of death which changes according to personality, age, religion and cultural status of the individual. Attitudes towards death vary dramatically according to individuals. As for the death anxiety, it is a feeling which start...

  14. Health-Related Quality of Life Predicts Major Amputation and Death, but Not Healing, in People With Diabetes Presenting With Foot Ulcers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Siersma, V.; Thorsen, H.; Holstein, P.E.

    2014-01-01

    healing, major amputation and death.Research design and methodsWe followed 1088 patients with new diabetic foot ulcers presenting for treatment at one of the 14 centers in 10 European countries participating in the Eurodiale study, prospectively until healing (76.9%), major amputation (4.6%) or death (6...... for major amputation (Mobility, Self-Care, Usual Activities) and death (Self-care, Usual Activities, Pain/Discomfort).ConclusionsLow HRQoL appears to be predictive for major amputation and death, but high HRQoL does not increase healing. Future studies into the influence of HRQoL on ulcer outcome...

  15. Assessing variation in skeletal production from surface death assemblages on the basis of age-frequency distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomasovych, Adam; Kidwell, Susan M.; Foygel Barber, Rina

    2015-04-01

    Age-frequency distributions of dead skeletal material that capture information on the elapsed time since death of individuals on the landscape or seabed provide decadal- to millennial-scale windows into the history of production and on the processes that lead to skeletal disintegration and burial. However, models quantifying the dynamics of skeletal loss assumed that skeletal production has been constant during accumulation of death assemblages. Here, we assess the joint effects of temporally-variable production and skeletal loss on the shape of postmortem age-frequency distributions. We show that the modes of such distributions will tend to be shifted to younger age cohorts relative to the true timing of past production pulses. This shift in the timing of a past production will be higher where loss rates are high and/or the rate of decline in production is slow. We apply the models combining the dynamic of loss and production to death assemblages with the deposit-feeding bivalve Nuculana taphria from the Southern California continental shelf, finding that (1) an onshore-offshore gradient in time averaging is dominated by a gradient in the timing of production, corresponding to the tracking of shallow-water habitats under a sea-level rise, and (2) model estimates of the timing of past production are in good agreement with an independent sea-level curve.

  16. Cognitive abilities predict death during the next 15 years in older Japanese adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishita, Yukiko; Tange, Chikako; Tomida, Makiko; Otsuka, Rei; Ando, Fujiko; Shimokata, Hiroshi

    2017-10-01

    The longitudinal relationship between cognitive abilities and subsequent death was investigated among community-dwelling older Japanese adults. Participants (n = 1060; age range 60-79 years) comprised the first-wave participants of the National Institute for Longevity Sciences-Longitudinal Study of Aging. Participants' cognitive abilities were measured at baseline using the Japanese Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale-Revised Short Form, which includes the following tests: Information (general knowledge), Similarities (logical abstract thinking), Picture Completion (visual perception and long-term visual memory) and Digit Symbol (information processing speed). By each cognitive test score, participants were classified into three groups: the high-level group (≥ the mean + 1SD), the low-level group (≤ the mean - 1SD) and the middle-level group. Data on death and moving during the subsequent 15 years were collected and analyzed using the multiple Cox proportional hazard model adjusted for physical and psychosocial covariates. During the follow-up period, 308 participants (29.06%) had died and 93 participants (8.77%) had moved. In the Similarities test, adjusted hazard ratios (HR) of the low-level group to the high-level group were significant (HR 1.49, 95% CI 1.02-2.17, P = 0.038). Furthermore, in the Digit symbol test, the adjusted HR of the low-level group to the high-level group was significant (HR 1.62, 95% CI 1.03-2.58, P = 0.038). Significant adjusted HR were not observed for the Information or Picture Completion tests. It is suggested that a lower level of logical abstract thinking and slower information processing speed are associated with shorter survival among older Japanese adults. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2017; 17: 1654-1660. © 2016 Japan Geriatrics Society.

  17. Prediction of frozen food properties during freezing using product composition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boonsupthip, W; Heldman, D R

    2007-06-01

    Frozen water fraction (FWF), as a function of temperature, is an important parameter for use in the design of food freezing processes. An FWF-prediction model, based on concentrations and molecular weights of specific product components, has been developed. Published food composition data were used to determine the identity and composition of key components. The model proposed in this investigation had been verified using published experimental FWF data and initial freezing temperature data, and by comparison to outputs from previously published models. It was found that specific food components with significant influence on freezing temperature depression of food products included low molecular weight water-soluble compounds with molality of 50 micromol per 100 g food or higher. Based on an analysis of 200 high-moisture food products, nearly 45% of the experimental initial freezing temperature data were within an absolute difference (AD) of +/- 0.15 degrees C and standard error (SE) of +/- 0.65 degrees C when compared to values predicted by the proposed model. The predicted relationship between temperature and FWF for all analyzed food products provided close agreements with experimental data (+/- 0.06 SE). The proposed model provided similar prediction capability for high- and intermediate-moisture food products. In addition, the proposed model provided statistically better prediction of initial freezing temperature and FWF than previous published models.

  18. Predicting the economic costs and property value losses attributed to sudden oak death damage in California (2010-2020).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovacs, Kent; Václavík, Tomáš; Haight, Robert G; Pang, Arwin; Cunniffe, Nik J; Gilligan, Christopher A; Meentemeyer, Ross K

    2011-04-01

    Phytophthora ramorum, cause of sudden oak death, is a quarantined, non-native, invasive forest pathogen resulting in substantial mortality in coastal live oak (Quercus agrifolia) and several other related tree species on the Pacific Coast of the United States. We estimate the discounted cost of oak treatment, removal, and replacement on developed land in California communities using simulations of P. ramorum spread and infection risk over the next decade (2010-2020). An estimated 734 thousand oak trees occur on developed land in communities in the analysis area. The simulations predict an expanding sudden oak death (SOD) infestation that will likely encompass most of northwestern California and warrant treatment, removal, and replacement of more than 10 thousand oak trees with discounted cost of $7.5 million. In addition, we estimate the discounted property losses to single family homes of $135 million. Expanding the land base to include developed land outside as well as inside communities doubles the estimates of the number of oak trees killed and the associated costs and losses. The predicted costs and property value losses are substantial, but many of the damages in urban areas (e.g. potential losses from increased fire and safety risks of the dead trees and the loss of ecosystem service values) are not included. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Nonlinear joint models for individual dynamic prediction of risk of death using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo: application to metastatic prostate cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Solène Desmée

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Joint models of longitudinal and time-to-event data are increasingly used to perform individual dynamic prediction of a risk of event. However the difficulty to perform inference in nonlinear models and to calculate the distribution of individual parameters has long limited this approach to linear mixed-effect models for the longitudinal part. Here we use a Bayesian algorithm and a nonlinear joint model to calculate individual dynamic predictions. We apply this approach to predict the risk of death in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC patients with frequent Prostate-Specific Antigen (PSA measurements. Methods A joint model is built using a large population of 400 mCRPC patients where PSA kinetics is described by a biexponential function and the hazard function is a PSA-dependent function. Using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm implemented in Stan software and the estimated population parameters in this population as priors, the a posteriori distribution of the hazard function is computed for a new patient knowing his PSA measurements until a given landmark time. Time-dependent area under the ROC curve (AUC and Brier score are derived to assess discrimination and calibration of the model predictions, first on 200 simulated patients and then on 196 real patients that are not included to build the model. Results Satisfying coverage probabilities of Monte Carlo prediction intervals are obtained for longitudinal and hazard functions. Individual dynamic predictions provide good predictive performances for landmark times larger than 12 months and horizon time of up to 18 months for both simulated and real data. Conclusions As nonlinear joint models can characterize the kinetics of biomarkers and their link with a time-to-event, this approach could be useful to improve patient’s follow-up and the early detection of most at risk patients.

  20. Predicting plankton net community production in the Atlantic Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serret, Pablo; Robinson, Carol; Fernández, Emilio; Teira, Eva; Tilstone, Gavin; Pérez, Valesca

    2009-07-01

    We present, test and implement two contrasting models to predict euphotic zone net community production (NCP), which are based on 14C primary production (PO 14CP) to NCP relationships over two latitudinal (ca. 30°S-45°N) transects traversing highly productive and oligotrophic provinces of the Atlantic Ocean (NADR, CNRY, BENG, NAST-E, ETRA and SATL, Longhurst et al., 1995 [An estimation of global primary production in the ocean from satellite radiometer data. Journal of Plankton Research 17, 1245-1271]). The two models include similar ranges of PO 14CP and community structure, but differ in the relative influence of allochthonous organic matter in the oligotrophic provinces. Both models were used to predict NCP from PO 14CP measurements obtained during 11 local and three seasonal studies in the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans, and from satellite-derived estimates of PO 14CP. Comparison of these NCP predictions with concurrent in situ measurements and geochemical estimates of NCP showed that geographic and annual patterns of NCP can only be predicted when the relative trophic importance of local vs. distant processes is similar in both modeled and predicted ecosystems. The system-dependent ability of our models to predict NCP seasonality suggests that trophic-level dynamics are stronger than differences in hydrodynamic regime, taxonomic composition and phytoplankton growth. The regional differences in the predictive power of both models confirm the existence of biogeographic differences in the scale of trophic dynamics, which impede the use of a single generalized equation to estimate global marine plankton NCP. This paper shows the potential of a systematic empirical approach to predict plankton NCP from local and satellite-derived P estimates.

  1. Development of a Clinical Tool to Predict Home Death of a Discharged Cancer Patient in Japan: a Case-Control Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fukui, Sakiko; Morita, Tatsuya; Yoshiuchi, Kazuhiro

    2017-08-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the predictive value of a clinical tool to predict whether discharged cancer patients die at home, comparing groups of case who died at home and control who died in hospitals or other facilities. We conducted a nationwide case-control study to identify the determinants of home death for a discharged cancer patient. We randomly selected nurses in charge of 2000 home-visit nursing agencies from all 5813 agencies in Japan by referring to the nationwide databases in January 2013. The nurses were asked to report variables of their patients' place of death, patients' and caregivers' clinical statuses, and their preferences for home death. We used logistic regression analysis and developed a clinical tool to accurately predict it and investigated their predictive values. We identified 466 case and 478 control patients. Five predictive variables of home death were obtained: patients' and caregivers' preferences for home death [OR (95% CI) 2.66 (1.99-3.55)], availability of visiting physicians [2.13 (1.67-2.70)], 24-h contact between physicians and nurses [1.68 (1.30-2.18)], caregivers' experiences of deathwatch at home [1.41 (1.13-1.75)], and patients' insights as to their own prognosis [1.23 (1.02-1.50)]. We calculated the scores predicting home death for each variable (range 6-28). When using a cutoff point of 16, home death was predicted with a sensitivity of 0.72 and a specificity of 0.81 with the Harrell's c-statistic of 0.84. This simple clinical tool for healthcare professionals can help predict whether a discharged patient is likely to die at home.

  2. Oleuropein Prevents Neuronal Death, Mitigates Mitochondrial Superoxide Production and Modulates Autophagy in a Dopaminergic Cellular Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Imène Achour

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Parkinson’s disease (PD is a progressive neurodegenerative disorder, primarily affecting dopaminergic neurons in the substantia nigra. There is currently no cure for PD and present medications aim to alleviate clinical symptoms, thus prevention remains the ideal strategy to reduce the prevalence of this disease. The goal of this study was to investigate whether oleuropein (OLE, the major phenolic compound in olive derivatives, may prevent neuronal degeneration in a cellular dopaminergic model of PD, differentiated PC12 cells exposed to the potent parkinsonian toxin 6-hydroxydopamine (6-OHDA. We also investigated OLE’s ability to mitigate mitochondrial oxidative stress and modulate the autophagic flux. Our results obtained by measuring cytotoxicity and apoptotic events demonstrate that OLE significantly decreases neuronal death. OLE could also reduce mitochondrial production of reactive oxygen species resulting from blocking superoxide dismutase activity. Moreover, quantification of autophagic and acidic vesicles in the cytoplasm alongside expression of specific autophagic markers uncovered a regulatory role for OLE against autophagic flux impairment induced by bafilomycin A1. Altogether, our results define OLE as a neuroprotective, anti-oxidative and autophagy-regulating molecule, in a neuronal dopaminergic cellular model.

  3. LABOR PRODUCTIVITY AS A FACTOR FOR BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel BRÎNDESCU – OLARIU

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The current study evaluates the potential of the labor productivity in predicting corporate bankruptcy. The population subjected to the analysis included all companies form Timis County with yearly sales of over 2200 Euros. The interest for the labor productivity was based on the recommendations of the scientific literature, as well as on the availability of information concerning its values to all stakeholders. The event on which the research was focused was represented by the manifestation of bankruptcy 2 years after the date of the financial statements of reference. All tests were performed over a paired sample of 1424 companies. The methodology employed in evaluating the potential of the labor productivity was based on the general accuracy ensured by the ratio (63.2% and the Area Under the ROC Curve (0.665. The results confirm the practical utility of the labor productivity in the prediction of bankruptcy.

  4. LABOR PRODUCTIVITY AS A FACTOR FOR BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION

    OpenAIRE

    Daniel BRÎNDESCU – OLARIU

    2014-01-01

    The current study evaluates the potential of the labor productivity in predicting corporate bankruptcy. The population subjected to the analysis included all companies form Timis County with yearly sales of over 2200 Euros. The interest for the labor productivity was based on the recommendations of the scientific literature, as well as on the availability of information concerning its values to all stakeholders. The event on which the research was focused was represented by the manif...

  5. The bioenergetic signature of isogenic colon cancer cells predicts the cell death response to treatment with 3-bromopyruvate, iodoacetate or 5-fluorouracil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cuezva José M

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Metabolic reprogramming resulting in enhanced glycolysis is a phenotypic trait of cancer cells, which is imposed by the tumor microenvironment and is linked to the down-regulation of the catalytic subunit of the mitochondrial H+-ATPase (β-F1-ATPase. The bioenergetic signature is a protein ratio (β-F1-ATPase/GAPDH, which provides an estimate of glucose metabolism in tumors and serves as a prognostic indicator for cancer patients. Targeting energetic metabolism could be a viable alternative to conventional anticancer chemotherapies. Herein, we document that the bioenergetic signature of isogenic colon cancer cells provides a gauge to predict the cell-death response to the metabolic inhibitors, 3-bromopyruvate (3BrP and iodoacetate (IA, and the anti-metabolite, 5-fluorouracil (5-FU. Methods The bioenergetic signature of the cells was determined by western blotting. Aerobic glycolysis was determined from lactate production rates. The cell death was analyzed by fluorescence microscopy and flow cytometry. Cellular ATP concentrations were determined using bioluminiscence. Pearson's correlation coefficient was applied to assess the relationship between the bioenergetic signature and the cell death response. In vivo tumor regression activities of the compounds were assessed using a xenograft mouse model injected with the highly glycolytic HCT116 colocarcinoma cells. Results We demonstrate that the bioenergetic signature of isogenic HCT116 cancer cells inversely correlates with the potential to execute necrosis in response to 3BrP or IA treatment. Conversely, the bioenergetic signature directly correlates with the potential to execute apoptosis in response to 5-FU treatment in the same cells. However, despite the large differences observed in the in vitro cell-death responses associated with 3BrP, IA and 5-FU, the in vivo tumor regression activities of these agents were comparable. Conclusions Overall, we suggest that the

  6. Productive procrastination: academic procrastination style predicts academic and alcohol outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westgate, Erin C.; Wormington, Stephanie V.; Oleson, Kathryn C.; Lindgren, Kristen P.

    2017-01-01

    Productive procrastination replaces one adaptive behavior with another adaptive—albeit less important—behavior (e.g., organizing notes instead of studying for an exam). We identified adaptive and maladaptive procrastination styles associated with academic and alcohol outcomes in 1106 college undergraduates. Cluster analysis identified five academic procrastination styles—non-procrastinators, academic productive procrastinators, non-academic productive procrastinators, non-academic procrastinators, and classic procrastinators. Procrastination style differentially predicted alcohol-related problems, cravings, risk of alcohol use disorders, and GPA (all ps procrastination and academic productive procrastination were most adaptive overall; non-academic productive procrastination, non-academic procrastination, and classic procrastination were least adaptive. Productive procrastination differed from other procrastination strategies, and maladaptive procrastination styles may be a useful risk indicator for preventative and intervention efforts. PMID:28804158

  7. Productive procrastination: academic procrastination style predicts academic and alcohol outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westgate, Erin C; Wormington, Stephanie V; Oleson, Kathryn C; Lindgren, Kristen P

    2017-03-01

    Productive procrastination replaces one adaptive behavior with another adaptive-albeit less important-behavior (e.g., organizing notes instead of studying for an exam). We identified adaptive and maladaptive procrastination styles associated with academic and alcohol outcomes in 1106 college undergraduates. Cluster analysis identified five academic procrastination styles- non-procrastinators , academic productive procrastinators , non-academic productive procrastinators, non-academic procrastinators , and classic procrastinators . Procrastination style differentially predicted alcohol-related problems, cravings, risk of alcohol use disorders, and GPA (all ps procrastination and academic productive procrastination were most adaptive overall; non-academic productive procrastination, non-academic procrastination, and classic procrastination were least adaptive. Productive procrastination differed from other procrastination strategies, and maladaptive procrastination styles may be a useful risk indicator for preventative and intervention efforts.

  8. A three-protein biomarker panel assessed in diagnostic tissue predicts death from prostate cancer for men with localized disease

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Severi, Gianluca; FitzGerald, Liesel M; Muller, David C; Pedersen, John; Longano, Anthony; Southey, Melissa C; Hopper, John L; English, Dallas R; Giles, Graham G; Mills, John

    2014-01-01

    Only a minority of prostate cancers lead to death. Because no tissue biomarkers of aggressiveness other than Gleason score are available at diagnosis, many nonlethal cancers are treated aggressively. We evaluated whether a panel of biomarkers, associated with a range of disease outcomes in previous studies, could predict death from prostate cancer for men with localized disease. Using a case-only design, subjects were identified from three Australian epidemiological studies. Men who had died of their disease, “cases” (N = 83), were matched to “referents” (N = 232), those who had not died of prostate cancer, using incidence density sampling. Diagnostic tissue was retrieved to assess expression of AZGP1, MUC1, NKX3.1, p53, and PTEN by semiquantitative immunohistochemistry (IHC). Poisson regression was used to estimate mortality rate ratios (MRRs) adjusted for age, Gleason score, and stage and to estimate survival probabilities. Expression of MUC1 and p53 was associated with increased mortality (MRR 2.51, 95% CI 1.14–5.54, P = 0.02 and 3.08, 95% CI 1.41–6.95, P = 0.005, respectively), whereas AZGP1 expression was associated with decreased mortality (MRR 0.44, 95% CI 0.20–0.96, P = 0.04). Analyzing all markers under a combined model indicated that the three markers were independent predictors of prostate cancer death and survival. For men with localized disease at diagnosis, assessment of AZGP1, MUC1, and p53 expression in diagnostic tissue by IHC could potentially improve estimates of risk of dying from prostate cancer based only on Gleason score and clinical stage

  9. Sudden Oak Death-Induced Tanoak Mortality in Coast Redwood Forests: Current and Predicted Impacts to Stand Structure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin L. O’Hara

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Tanoak (Notholithocarpus densiflorus syn. Lithocarpus densiflorus is one of the most widespread and abundant associates of coast redwood (Sequoia sempervirens, but little is known about the structural relationships between these two species. Knowledge of such relationships is essential for a thorough understanding of the impacts of sudden oak death (caused by the exotic pathogen Phytophthora ramorum, which is currently decimating tanoak populations throughout the redwood range. In this study, we utilized a stratified plot design and a stand reconstruction technique to assess structural impacts, at present and in the future, of this emerging disease. We found that residual trees in diseased plots were more aggregated than trees in unaffected plots, and we predicted that the loss of tanoak will lead to the following short-term changes: greater average diameter, height, height-to-live-crown, and crown length, as well as an increase in average nearest neighbor differences for diameter, height, and crown length. In addition, plots lacking tanoak (living or dead—as compared to plots with tanoak—exhibited greater average diameter and increased nearest neighbor differences with regard to diameter, height, and crown length. We also conducted a preliminary exploration of how sudden oak death-induced structural changes compare with typical old-growth characteristics, and how this disease may affect the structure of old-growth forests.

  10. Image processing system performance prediction and product quality evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, E. K.; Hammill, H. B. (Principal Investigator)

    1976-01-01

    The author has identified the following significant results. A new technique for image processing system performance prediction and product quality evaluation was developed. It was entirely objective, quantitative, and general, and should prove useful in system design and quality control. The technique and its application to determination of quality control procedures for the Earth Resources Technology Satellite NASA Data Processing Facility are described.

  11. An Integrated and Interdisciplinary Model for Predicting the Risk of Injury and Death in Future Earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shapira, Stav; Novack, Lena; Bar-Dayan, Yaron; Aharonson-Daniel, Limor

    2016-01-01

    A comprehensive technique for earthquake-related casualty estimation remains an unmet challenge. This study aims to integrate risk factors related to characteristics of the exposed population and to the built environment in order to improve communities' preparedness and response capabilities and to mitigate future consequences. An innovative model was formulated based on a widely used loss estimation model (HAZUS) by integrating four human-related risk factors (age, gender, physical disability and socioeconomic status) that were identified through a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological data. The common effect measures of these factors were calculated and entered to the existing model's algorithm using logistic regression equations. Sensitivity analysis was performed by conducting a casualty estimation simulation in a high-vulnerability risk area in Israel. the integrated model outcomes indicated an increase in the total number of casualties compared with the prediction of the traditional model; with regard to specific injury levels an increase was demonstrated in the number of expected fatalities and in the severely and moderately injured, and a decrease was noted in the lightly injured. Urban areas with higher populations at risk rates were found more vulnerable in this regard. The proposed model offers a novel approach that allows quantification of the combined impact of human-related and structural factors on the results of earthquake casualty modelling. Investing efforts in reducing human vulnerability and increasing resilience prior to an occurrence of an earthquake could lead to a possible decrease in the expected number of casualties.

  12. Prediction of Mortality and Causes of Death in a Burn Centre: A Retrospective Clinical Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Celalettin Sever

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Aim: Mortality rates are important outcome parameters after burn. The causes of mortality have been reported differently in the literature. The aim of the study was to identify parameters that are predictive of major morbidity factors and risk of mortality in patients with burn injury. Material and Methods: This study was performed among the patients who admitted to the burn center period between December 2001 and June 2010. Within this period, demographic data, treatment, and outcomes of treatment were reviewed and analyzed. Results: The burn patients were analysed retrospectively during 9-years period between December 2001 and January 2010. Burns caused by scalding were the most frequent (69.7 % followed by flames (24.4 %. 4.30 % of the patients died because of multisystem organ failure, septicaemia and cardiac respiratory failure. Conclusions:The most common cause of mortality was multiorgan failure according to our study. The mortality rates and causes of burn centers should be investigated retrospectively between different burn centres to determine the most common cause of mortality in burn centers. 

  13. The political uses of astrology: predicting the illness and death of princes, kings and popes in the Italian Renaissance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azzolini, Monica

    2010-06-01

    This paper examines the production and circulation of astrological prognostications regarding the illness and death of kings, princes, and popes in the Italian Renaissance (ca. 1470-1630). The distribution and consumption of this type of astrological information was often closely linked to the specific political situation in which they were produced. Depending on the astrological techniques used (prorogations, interrogations, or annual revolutions), and the media in which they appeared (private letters or printed prognostica) these prognostications fulfilled different functions in the information economy of Renaissance Italy. Some were used to legitimise the rule of a political leader, others to do just the opposite. Astrological prorogations and interrogations were often used to plan military and political strategies in case of the illness or death of a political leader, while astrological prognostications were generally written to promote certain political leaders while undermining others. While certainly often partisan to this game, astrologers, for their part, worked within a very well established tradition that gave authority to their forecasts. This paper argues that, as indicators of deeper political tensions otherwise not always explicitly manifest, these prognostications are privileged sources of information providing a better understanding of the political history of the period.

  14. Predictive Value of Beat-to-Beat QT Variability Index across the Continuum of Left Ventricular Dysfunction: Competing Risks of Non-cardiac or Cardiovascular Death, and Sudden or Non-Sudden Cardiac Death

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tereshchenko, Larisa G.; Cygankiewicz, Iwona; McNitt, Scott; Vazquez, Rafael; Bayes-Genis, Antoni; Han, Lichy; Sur, Sanjoli; Couderc, Jean-Philippe; Berger, Ronald D.; de Luna, Antoni Bayes; Zareba, Wojciech

    2012-01-01

    Background The goal of this study was to determine the predictive value of beat-to-beat QT variability in heart failure (HF) patients across the continuum of left ventricular dysfunction. Methods and Results Beat-to-beat QT variability index (QTVI), heart rate variance (LogHRV), normalized QT variance (QTVN), and coherence between heart rate variability and QT variability have been measured at rest during sinus rhythm in 533 participants of the Muerte Subita en Insuficiencia Cardiaca (MUSIC) HF study (mean age 63.1±11.7; males 70.6%; LVEF >35% in 254 [48%]) and in 181 healthy participants from the Intercity Digital Electrocardiogram Alliance (IDEAL) database. During a median of 3.7 years of follow-up, 116 patients died, 52 from sudden cardiac death (SCD). In multivariate competing risk analyses, the highest QTVI quartile was associated with cardiovascular death [hazard ratio (HR) 1.67(95%CI 1.14-2.47), P=0.009] and in particular with non-sudden cardiac death [HR 2.91(1.69-5.01), P<0.001]. Elevated QTVI separated 97.5% of healthy individuals from subjects at risk for cardiovascular [HR 1.57(1.04-2.35), P=0.031], and non-sudden cardiac death in multivariate competing risk model [HR 2.58(1.13-3.78), P=0.001]. No interaction between QTVI and LVEF was found. QTVI predicted neither non-cardiac death (P=0.546) nor SCD (P=0.945). Decreased heart rate variability (HRV) rather than increased QT variability was the reason for increased QTVI in this study. Conclusions Increased QTVI due to depressed HRV predicts cardiovascular mortality and non-sudden cardiac death, but neither SCD nor excracardiac mortality in HF across the continuum of left ventricular dysfunction. Abnormally augmented QTVI separates 97.5% of healthy individuals from HF patients at risk. PMID:22730411

  15. Interleukin-22 predicts severity and death in advanced liver cirrhosis: a prospective cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kronenberger Bernd

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Interleukin-22 (IL-22, recently identified as a crucial parameter of pathology in experimental liver damage, may determine survival in clinical end-stage liver disease. Systematic analysis of serum IL-22 in relation to morbidity and mortality of patients with advanced liver cirrhosis has not been performed so far. Methods This is a prospective cohort study including 120 liver cirrhosis patients and 40 healthy donors to analyze systemic levels of IL-22 in relation to survival and hepatic complications. Results A total of 71% of patients displayed liver cirrhosis-related complications at study inclusion. A total of 23% of the patients died during a mean follow-up of 196 ± 165 days. Systemic IL-22 was detectable in 74% of patients but only in 10% of healthy donors (P P = 0.006, hepatorenal syndrome (P P = 0.001. Patients with elevated IL-22 (>18 pg/ml, n = 57 showed significantly reduced survival compared to patients with regular (≤18 pg/ml levels of IL-22 (321 days versus 526 days, P = 0.003. Other factors associated with reduced overall survival were high CRP (≥2.9 mg/dl, P = 0.005, hazard ratio (HR 0.314, confidence interval (CI (0.141 to 0.702, elevated serum creatinine (P = 0.05, HR 0.453, CI (0.203 to 1.012, presence of liver-related complications (P = 0.028, HR 0.258, CI (0.077 to 0.862, model of end stage liver disease (MELD score ≥20 (P = 0.017, HR 0.364, CI (0.159 to 0.835 and age (P = 0.011, HR 0.955, CI (0.922 to 0.989. Adjusted multivariate Cox proportional-hazards analysis identified elevated systemic IL-22 levels as independent predictors of reduced survival (P = 0.007, HR 0.218, CI (0.072 to 0.662. Conclusions In patients with liver cirrhosis, elevated systemic IL-22 levels are predictive for reduced survival independently from age, liver-related complications, CRP, creatinine and the MELD score. Thus, processes that lead to a rise in systemic interleukin-22 may be relevant for prognosis of advanced liver

  16. The natural product peiminine represses colorectal carcinoma tumor growth by inducing autophagic cell death

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lyu, Qing; Tou, Fangfang; Su, Hong; Wu, Xiaoyong; Chen, Xinyi; Zheng, Zhi

    2015-01-01

    Autophagy is evolutionarily conservative in eukaryotic cells that engulf cellular long-lived proteins and organelles, and it degrades the contents through fusion with lysosomes, via which the cell acquires recycled building blocks for the synthesis of new molecules. In this study, we revealed that peiminine induces cell death and enhances autophagic flux in colorectal carcinoma HCT-116 cells. We determined that peiminine enhances the autophagic flux by repressing the phosphorylation of mTOR through inhibiting upstream signals. Knocking down ATG5 greatly reduced the peiminine-induced cell death in wild-type HCT-116 cells, while treating Bax/Bak-deficient cells with peiminine resulted in significant cell death. In summary, our discoveries demonstrated that peiminine represses colorectal carcinoma cell proliferation and cell growth by inducing autophagic cell death. - Highlights: • Peiminine induces autophagy and upregulates autophagic flux. • Peiminine represses colorectal carcinoma tumor growth. • Peiminine induces autophagic cell death. • Peiminine represses mTOR phosphorylation by influencing PI3K/Akt and AMPK pathway

  17. The natural product peiminine represses colorectal carcinoma tumor growth by inducing autophagic cell death

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lyu, Qing [School of Life Sciences, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084 (China); Key Lab in Healthy Science and Technology, Division of Life Science, Graduate School at Shenzhen, Tsinghua University, Shenzhen, 518055 (China); Tou, Fangfang [Jiangxi Provincial Key Lab of Oncology Translation Medicine, Jiangxi Cancer Hospital, Nanchang, 330029 (China); Su, Hong; Wu, Xiaoyong [First Affiliated Hospital, Guiyang College of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Guiyang, 550002 (China); Chen, Xinyi [Department of Hematology and Oncology, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, Beijing, 100029 (China); Zheng, Zhi, E-mail: zheng_sheva@hotmail.com [Jiangxi Provincial Key Lab of Oncology Translation Medicine, Jiangxi Cancer Hospital, Nanchang, 330029 (China)

    2015-06-19

    Autophagy is evolutionarily conservative in eukaryotic cells that engulf cellular long-lived proteins and organelles, and it degrades the contents through fusion with lysosomes, via which the cell acquires recycled building blocks for the synthesis of new molecules. In this study, we revealed that peiminine induces cell death and enhances autophagic flux in colorectal carcinoma HCT-116 cells. We determined that peiminine enhances the autophagic flux by repressing the phosphorylation of mTOR through inhibiting upstream signals. Knocking down ATG5 greatly reduced the peiminine-induced cell death in wild-type HCT-116 cells, while treating Bax/Bak-deficient cells with peiminine resulted in significant cell death. In summary, our discoveries demonstrated that peiminine represses colorectal carcinoma cell proliferation and cell growth by inducing autophagic cell death. - Highlights: • Peiminine induces autophagy and upregulates autophagic flux. • Peiminine represses colorectal carcinoma tumor growth. • Peiminine induces autophagic cell death. • Peiminine represses mTOR phosphorylation by influencing PI3K/Akt and AMPK pathway.

  18. Theoretical predictions for charm and bottom production at the LHC

    CERN Document Server

    Cacciari, Matteo; Houdeau, Nicolas; Mangano, Michelangelo L; Nason, Paolo; Ridolfi, Giovanni

    2012-01-01

    We present predictions for a variety of single-inclusive observables that stem from the production of charm and bottom quark pairs at the 7 TeV LHC. They are obtained within the FONLL semi-analytical framework, and with two "Monte Carlo + NLO" approaches, MC@NLO and POWHEG. Results are given for final states and acceptance cuts that are as close as possible to those used by experimental collaborations and, where feasible, are compared to LHC data.

  19. Anethole induces apoptotic cell death accompanied by reactive oxygen species production and DNA fragmentation in Aspergillus fumigatus and Saccharomyces cerevisiae.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujita, Ken-Ichi; Tatsumi, Miki; Ogita, Akira; Kubo, Isao; Tanaka, Toshio

    2014-02-01

    trans-Anethole (anethole), a major component of anise oil, has a broad antimicrobial spectrum, and antimicrobial activity that is weaker than that of other antibiotics on the market. When combined with polygodial, nagilactone E, and n-dodecanol, anethole has been shown to possess significant synergistic antifungal activity against a budding yeast, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, and a human opportunistic pathogenic yeast, Candida albicans. However, the antifungal mechanism of anethole has not been completely determined. We found that anethole stimulated cell death of a human opportunistic pathogenic fungus, Aspergillus fumigatus, in addition to S. cerevisiae. The anethole-induced cell death was accompanied by reactive oxygen species production, metacaspase activation, and DNA fragmentation. Several mutants of S. cerevisiae, in which genes related to the apoptosis-initiating execution signals from mitochondria were deleted, were resistant to anethole. These results suggest that anethole-induced cell death could be explained by oxidative stress-dependent apoptosis via typical mitochondrial death cascades in fungi, including A. fumigatus and S. cerevisiae. © 2014 FEBS.

  20. Development of a radiation track structure clustering algorithm for the prediction of DNA DSB yields and radiation induced cell death in Eukaryotic cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglass, Michael; Bezak, Eva; Penfold, Scott

    2015-04-21

    The preliminary framework of a combined radiobiological model is developed and calibrated in the current work. The model simulates the production of individual cells forming a tumour, the spatial distribution of individual ionization events (using Geant4-DNA) and the stochastic biochemical repair of DNA double strand breaks (DSBs) leading to the prediction of survival or death of individual cells. In the current work, we expand upon a previously developed tumour generation and irradiation model to include a stochastic ionization damage clustering and DNA lesion repair model. The Geant4 code enabled the positions of each ionization event in the cells to be simulated and recorded for analysis. An algorithm was developed to cluster the ionization events in each cell into simple and complex double strand breaks. The two lesion kinetic (TLK) model was then adapted to predict DSB repair kinetics and the resultant cell survival curve. The parameters in the cell survival model were then calibrated using experimental cell survival data of V79 cells after low energy proton irradiation. A monolayer of V79 cells was simulated using the tumour generation code developed previously. The cells were then irradiated by protons with mean energies of 0.76 MeV and 1.9 MeV using a customized version of Geant4. By replicating the experimental parameters of a low energy proton irradiation experiment and calibrating the model with two sets of data, the model is now capable of predicting V79 cell survival after low energy (cell survival probability, the cell survival probability is calculated for each cell in the geometric tumour model developed in the current work. This model uses fundamental measurable microscopic quantities such as genome length rather than macroscopic radiobiological quantities such as alpha/beta ratios. This means that the model can be theoretically used under a wide range of conditions with a single set of input parameters once calibrated for a given cell line.

  1. Perineural Invasion Predicts Increased Recurrence, Metastasis, and Death From Prostate Cancer Following Treatment With Dose-Escalated Radiation Therapy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Feng, Felix Y. [University of Michigan Medical Center, Ann Arbor, MI (United States); Ann Arbor Veteran Affairs Medical System, Ann Arbor, MI (United States); Qian Yushen; Stenmark, Matthew H.; Halverson, Schuyler; Blas, Kevin; Vance, Sean [University of Michigan Medical Center, Ann Arbor, MI (United States); Sandler, Howard M. [Cedars Sinai Medical System, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Hamstra, Daniel A., E-mail: dhamm@med.umich.edu [University of Michigan Medical Center, Ann Arbor, MI (United States)

    2011-11-15

    Purpose: To assess the prognostic value of perineural invasion (PNI) for patients treated with dose-escalated external-beam radiation therapy for prostate cancer. Methods and Materials: Outcomes were analyzed for 651 men treated for prostate cancer with EBRT to a minimum dose {>=}75 Gy. We assessed the impact of PNI as well as pretreatment and treatment-related factors on freedom from biochemical failure (FFBF), freedom from metastasis (FFM), cause-specific survival (CSS), and overall survival. Results: PNI was present in 34% of specimens at biopsy and was significantly associated with higher Gleason score (GS), T stage, and prostate-specific antigen level. On univariate and multivariate analysis, the presence of PNI was associated with worse FFBF (hazard ratio = 1.7, p <0.006), FFM (hazard ratio = 1.8, p <0.03), and CSS (HR = 1.4, p <0.05) compared with absence of PNI; there was no difference in overall survival. Seven-year rates of FFBF, FFM, and CCS were 64% vs. 80%, 84% vs. 92%, and 91% vs. 95% for those patients with and without PNI, respectively. On recursive partitioning analysis, PNI predicted for worse FFM and CSS in patients with GS 8-10, with FFM of 67% vs. 89% (p <0.02), and CSS of 69% vs. 91%, (p <0.04) at 7 years for those with and without PNI, respectively. Conclusions: The presence of PNI in the prostate biopsy predicts worse clinical outcome for patients treated with dose-escalated external-beam radiation therapy. Particularly in patients with GS 8-10 disease, the presence of PNI suggests an increased risk of metastasis and prostate cancer death.

  2. Perineural Invasion Predicts Increased Recurrence, Metastasis, and Death From Prostate Cancer Following Treatment With Dose-Escalated Radiation Therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feng, Felix Y.; Qian Yushen; Stenmark, Matthew H.; Halverson, Schuyler; Blas, Kevin; Vance, Sean; Sandler, Howard M.; Hamstra, Daniel A.

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: To assess the prognostic value of perineural invasion (PNI) for patients treated with dose-escalated external-beam radiation therapy for prostate cancer. Methods and Materials: Outcomes were analyzed for 651 men treated for prostate cancer with EBRT to a minimum dose ≥75 Gy. We assessed the impact of PNI as well as pretreatment and treatment-related factors on freedom from biochemical failure (FFBF), freedom from metastasis (FFM), cause-specific survival (CSS), and overall survival. Results: PNI was present in 34% of specimens at biopsy and was significantly associated with higher Gleason score (GS), T stage, and prostate-specific antigen level. On univariate and multivariate analysis, the presence of PNI was associated with worse FFBF (hazard ratio = 1.7, p <0.006), FFM (hazard ratio = 1.8, p <0.03), and CSS (HR = 1.4, p <0.05) compared with absence of PNI; there was no difference in overall survival. Seven-year rates of FFBF, FFM, and CCS were 64% vs. 80%, 84% vs. 92%, and 91% vs. 95% for those patients with and without PNI, respectively. On recursive partitioning analysis, PNI predicted for worse FFM and CSS in patients with GS 8–10, with FFM of 67% vs. 89% (p <0.02), and CSS of 69% vs. 91%, (p <0.04) at 7 years for those with and without PNI, respectively. Conclusions: The presence of PNI in the prostate biopsy predicts worse clinical outcome for patients treated with dose-escalated external-beam radiation therapy. Particularly in patients with GS 8–10 disease, the presence of PNI suggests an increased risk of metastasis and prostate cancer death.

  3. Associations and predictions of readmission or death in acutely admitted older medical patients using self-reported frailty and functional measures. A Danish cohort study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andreasen, Jane; Aadahl, Mette; Sørensen, Erik Elgaard

    2018-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To assess whether frailty in acutely admitted older medical patients, assessed by a self-report questionnaire and evaluation of functional level at discharge, was associated with readmission or death within 6 months after discharge. A second objective was to assess the predictive...... measured. Associations were assessed using Cox regression with first unplanned readmission or death (all-causes) as the outcome. Prediction models including the three exposure variables and known risk factors were modelled using logistic regression and C-statistics. RESULTS: Of 1328 included patients, 50......% were readmitted or died within 6 months. When adjusted for gender and age, there was an 88% higher risk of readmission or death if the TFI scores were 8-13 points compared to 0-1 points (HR 1.88, CI 1.38;2.58). Likewise, higher TUG and lower GS scores were associated with higher risk of readmission...

  4. Right ventricular function assessed by 2D strain analysis predicts ventricular arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death in patients after acute myocardial infarction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Risum, Niels; Valeur, Nana; Søgaard, Peter

    2017-01-01

    Aims: Left ventricular function is a well-established predictor of malignant ventricular arrhythmias, but little is known about the importance of right ventricular (RV) function. The aim of this study was to investigate the importance of RV function for prediction of sudden cardiac death (SCD) or...

  5. Monte Carlo simulation techniques for predicting annual power production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cross, J.P.; Bulandr, P.J.

    1991-01-01

    As the owner and operator of a number of small to mid-sized hydroelectric sites, STS HydroPower has been faced with the need to accurately predict anticipated hydroelectric revenues over a period of years. The typical approach to this problem has been to look at each site from a mathematical deterministic perspective and evaluate the annual production from historic streamflows. Average annual production is simply taken to be the area under the flow duration curve defined by the operating and design characteristics of the selected turbines. Minimum annual production is taken to be a historic dry year scenario and maximum production is viewed as power generated under the most ideal of conditions. Such an approach creates two problems. First, in viewing the characteristics of a single site, it does not take into account the probability of such an event occurring. Second, in viewing all sites in a single organization's portfolio together, it does not reflect the varying flow conditions at the different sites. This paper attempts to address the first of these two concerns, that being the creation of a simulation model utilizing the Monte Carlo method at a single site. The result of the analysis is a picture of the production at the site that is both a better representation of anticipated conditions and defined probabilistically

  6. [A cohort study on the predictive value of factors influencing cardio-cerebro vascular death among people over 40 years of age].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jian-min; Lu, Fang-hong; Jin, Shi-kuan; Sun, Shang-wen; Zhao, Ying-xin; Wang, Shu-jian; Zhou, Xiao-hong

    2007-02-01

    To explore the factors influencing cardio-cerebro vascular death events among people over 40 years of age in Shandong area, China. Baseline survey was carried out in 1991. A total number of 11,008 adults over 40 years old had been studied in Shandong province. Data on cardiocerebro death was collected. The correlation between influencing factors and cardio-cerebro vascular death events was analyzed by Cox regression model. Totally, 434 cardio-cerebro death events occurred among the 11,008 subjects during the 8-year follow-up study. Cardio-cerebro death events were related to systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, smoking, stroke history and age. Data from Cox regression analysis showed that the relative risk (RR) for cardio-cerebro vascular death events increased by 2.862 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.976-4.144] times for those people having stroke history. When systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure increased by every 10 mm Hg, the relative risk for cardio-cerebro vascular death events increased by 1.171 (95% CI: 1.033-1.328), 1.214 (95% CI: 1.044-1.413) respectively. it was found that a 1.239 (95% CI: 1.088-1.553) times higher in smokers than non-smokers on relative risk for cardio-cerebro vascular death events. However, the predictive values of the influencing factors for cardio-cerebro vascular death were different among population of different years of age. The relative risk for cardio-cerebro vascular death events increased by 1.366 (95% CI: 1.102-1.678) times for each 10 mm Hg increase of diastolic blood pressure in 40-59 years old population. However, the effect was taken place by systolic blood pressure in 60-74 years old population,with a relative risk of 1.201 (95% CI: 1.017-1.418) for each 10 mm Hg increase. Age seemed the only significant factor for cardio-cerebro vascular death events on population aged more than 75 years old. Conclusion The predictive values of the risk factors were different among age groups. The different

  7. Algorithm for predicting death among older adults in the home care setting: study protocol for the Risk Evaluation for Support: Predictions for Elder-life in the Community Tool (RESPECT).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, Amy T; Manuel, Douglas G; Taljaard, Monica; Chalifoux, Mathieu; Bennett, Carol; Costa, Andrew P; Bronskill, Susan; Kobewka, Daniel; Tanuseputro, Peter

    2016-12-01

    Older adults living in the community often have multiple, chronic conditions and functional impairments. A challenge for healthcare providers working in the community is the lack of a predictive tool that can be applied to the broad spectrum of mortality risks observed and may be used to inform care planning. To predict survival time for older adults in the home care setting. The final mortality risk algorithm will be implemented as a web-based calculator that can be used by older adults needing care and by their caregivers. Open cohort study using the Resident Assessment Instrument for Home Care (RAI-HC) data in Ontario, Canada, from 1 January 2007 to 31 December 2013. The derivation cohort will consist of ∼437 000 older adults who had an RAI-HC assessment between 1 January 2007 and 31 December 2012. A split sample validation cohort will include ∼122 000 older adults with an RAI-HC assessment between 1 January and 31 December 2013. Predicted survival from the time of an RAI-HC assessment. All deaths (n≈245 000) will be ascertained through linkage to a population-based registry that is maintained by the Ministry of Health in Ontario. Proportional hazards regression will be estimated after assessment of assumptions. Predictors will include sociodemographic factors, social support, health conditions, functional status, cognition, symptoms of decline and prior healthcare use. Model performance will be evaluated for 6-month and 12-month predicted risks, including measures of calibration (eg, calibration plots) and discrimination (eg, c-statistics). The final algorithm will use combined development and validation data. Research ethics approval has been granted by the Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre Review Board. Findings will be disseminated through presentations at conferences and in peer-reviewed journals. NCT02779309, Pre-results. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to

  8. Cod Gadus morhua and climate change: processes, productivity and prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brander, Keith

    2010-01-01

    the causes. Investigation of cod Gadus morhua populations across the whole North Atlantic Ocean has shown large-scale patterns of change in productivity due to lower individual growth and condition, caused by large-scale climate forcing. If a population is being heavily exploited then a drop in productivity......Environmental factors act on individual fishes directly and indirectly. The direct effects on rates and behaviour can be studied experimentally and in the field, particularly with the advent of ever smarter tags for tracking fishes and their environment. Indirect effects due to changes in food......, predators, parasites and diseases are much more difficult to estimate and predict. Climate can affect all life-history stages through direct and indirect processes and although the consequences in terms of growth, survival and reproductive output can be monitored, it is often difficult to determine...

  9. Neonatal Death

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Home > Complications & Loss > Loss & grief > Neonatal death Neonatal death E-mail to a friend Please fill in ... cope with your baby’s death. What is neonatal death? Neonatal death is when a baby dies in ...

  10. Can early-life growth disruptions predict longevity? Testing the association between vertebral neural canal (VNC) size and age-at-death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amoroso, Alexandra; Garcia, Susana J

    2018-04-04

    This study tests the association of vertebral neural canal (VNC) size and age-at-death in a Portuguese skeletal collection from the 19 th -20th century. If the plasticity and constraint model best explains this association, VNC size would be negatively related to mortality risk. If the predictive adaptive response (PAR) model is a better fit, no association can be inferred between VNC size and age-at-death. Ninety individuals were used in this study. The anteroposterior and transverse diameters of all vertebrae were measured. A Cox regression analysis was performed by sex to assess the effect of VNC size on age-at-death, after adjusting for the effects of year of birth and cause of death. Several measurements of VNC diameters have a statistically significant effect on age-at-death, but when the covariates were considered, this association became non-significant. The PAR model seems the best fit to explain the relation between VNC and age-at-death. Individuals who went through stressful events early in life were prepared to face a stressful environment later in life, allowing them to cope with adversity without affecting longevity. However, developmental plasticity may be buffered by maternal capital accumulated over several generations, and health hazards encountered throughout life can contribute to health outcomes and longevity. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. NLO QCD predictions for Z + γ + jets production with Sherpa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krause, Johannes; Siegert, Frank [Institut fuer Kern- und Teilchenphysik, Dresden (Germany)

    2018-02-15

    We present precise predictions for prompt photon production in association with a Z boson and jets. They are obtained within the Sherpa framework as a consistently merged inclusive sample. Leptonic decays of the Z boson are fully included in the calculation with all off-shell effects. Virtual matrix elements are provided by OpenLoops and parton-shower effects are simulated with a dipole parton shower. Thanks to the NLO QCD corrections included not only for inclusive Zγ production but also for the Zγ + 1-jet process we find significantly reduced systematic uncertainties and very good agreement with experimental measurements at √(s) = 8 TeV. Predictions at √(s) = 13 TeV are displayed including a study of theoretical uncertainties. In view of an application of these simulations within LHC experiments, we discuss in detail the necessary combination with a simulation of the Z + jets final state. In addition to a corresponding prescription we introduce recommended cross checks to avoid common pitfalls during the overlap removal between the two samples. (orig.)

  12. Heart rate reserve predicts cardiovascular death among physically unfit but otherwise healthy middle-aged men: a 35-year follow-up study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engeseth, Kristian; Hodnesdal, Christian; Grundvold, Irene; Liestøl, Knut; Gjesdal, Knut; Erikssen, Gunnar; Kjeldsen, Sverre E; Erikssen, Jan E; Bodegard, Johan; Skretteberg, Per Torger

    2016-01-01

    Heart rate reserve (HRR) has been reported to be inversely associated with cardiovascular (CV) disease and death. The impact of physical fitness (PF) on this relationship has not, however, been described in detail. We investigated how different levels of PF influenced the association between HRR and CV death during a 35-year follow-up. HRR and PF were measured in 2014 apparently healthy, middle-aged men during a symptom-limited bicycle exercise test in 1972-75. The men were divided into tertiles (T1-T3) by age-adjusted HRR. Morbidity and mortality data were registered from hospital charts through 2007 and the Norwegian Cause of Death Registry. Adjusted Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to calculate risks. Incidence of CV death was 528 (26%) during median 30 years of follow-up. Men with the lowest HRR had 41% (HR 1.41 [1.14-1.75]) increased risk of CV death compared with the men with the highest. We found a significant interaction between age-adjusted PF and HRR. After stratifying the men by PF, results were statistically significant only among men with the lowest PF, where the men with lowest HRR had a 70% (HR 1.70 [1.12-2.67]) increased risk of CV death compared with the men with the highest. Low HRR was independently associated with increased risk of CV death in apparently healthy, middle-aged men. The predictive impact of HRR on CV death risk was, however, confined to unfit men. © The European Society of Cardiology 2014.

  13. [Predicting value of 2014 European guidelines risk prediction model for sudden cardiac death (HCM Risk-SCD) in Chinese patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, W X; Liu, L W; Wang, J; Zuo, L; Yang, F; Kang, N; Lei, C H

    2017-12-24

    Objective: To evaluate the predicting value of the 2014 European Society of Cardiology (ESC) guidelines risk prediction model for sudden cardiac death (HCM Risk-SCD) in Chinese patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM), and to explore the predictors of adverse cardiovascular events in Chinese HCM patients. Methods: The study population consisted of a consecutive 207 HCM patients admitted in our center from October 2014 to October 2016. All patients were followed up to March 2017. The 5-year SCD probability of each patient was estimated using HCM Risk-SCD model based on electrocardiogram, echocardiography and cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) examination results. The primary, second, and composite endpoints were recorded. The primary endpoint included SCD and appropriate ICD therapy, identical to the HCM Risk-SCD endpoint. The second endpoint included acute myocardial infarction, hospitalization for heart failure, thrombus embolism and end-stage HCM. The composite endpoint was either the primary or the second endpoint. Patients were divided into the 3 categories according to 5-year SCD probability assessed by HCM Risk-SCD model: low risk grouprisk group ≥4% torisk group≥6%. Results: (1) Prevalence of endpoints: All 207 HCM patients completed the follow-up (350 (230, 547) days). During follow-up, 8 (3.86%) patients reached the primary endpoints (3 cases of SCD, 3 cases of survival after defibrillation, and 2 cases of appropriate ICD discharge); 21 (10.14%) patients reached the second endpoints (1 case of acute myocardial infarction, 16 cases of heart failure hospitalization, 2 cases of thromboembolism, and 2 cases of end-stage HCM). (2) Predicting value of HCM Risk-SCD model: Patients with primary endpoints had higher prevalence of syncope and intermediate-high risk of 5-year SCD, as compared to those without primary endpoints (both Pvalue of HCM Risk-SCD model: The low risk group included 122 patients (59%), the intermediate risk group 42 (20%), and the

  14. Precise predictions for supersymmetric particle production at the LHC

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rothering, Marcel

    2016-07-01

    One of the main objectives of the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) is the search for physics beyond the Standard Model. Among the most promising candidates is the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM) which postulates the existence of further particles. Since none of these supersymmetric particles have been found yet, their mass limits have been shifted to high values. Hence, with the available energy of the LHC they would always be produced close to their production threshold. This leads to predictions for cross sections which are characterized by the presence of dominant logarithmic terms stemming from multiple soft gluon emission. These contributions spoil the convergence of the perturbative series and require a resummation to predict reliable results in these critical kinematical phase space regions. As the attention of experimental searches has been shifted towards electroweak supersymmetric particle production at the LHC, we update in this thesis our predictions for direct slepton pair production at proton-proton collision to next-to-leading order (NLO) matched to resummation at the next-to-leading logarithmic (NLL) accuracy. As a benchmark scenario we choose simplified models which have the advantage of only containing a few relevant physical parameters. They are now commonly adopted by the experimental collaborations for slepton and electroweak gaugino searches. We find that the scale dependence is drastically reduced by including NLL corrections, especially for large slepton masses. For increasing mass limits we hint towards the significance of next-to-next-to-leading logarithmic contributions to the cross section. By using modern Monte Carlo techniques we reanalyze ATLAS and CMS results for slepton searches for different assumptions about the compositions of the sleptons and their neutralino decay products. We observe similar mass limits for selectrons and smuons as both collaborations and find that masses for left-handed (right-handed) selectrons and

  15. Streptococcus sanguinis induces neutrophil cell death by production of hydrogen peroxide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sumioka, Ryuichi; Nakata, Masanobu; Okahashi, Nobuo; Li, Yixuan; Wada, Satoshi; Yamaguchi, Masaya; Sumitomo, Tomoko; Hayashi, Mikako; Kawabata, Shigetada

    2017-01-01

    Streptococcus is the dominant bacterial genus in the human oral cavity and a leading cause of infective endocarditis. Streptococcus sanguinis belongs to the mitis group of streptococci and produces hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) by the action of SpxB, a pyruvate oxidase. In this study, we investigated the involvement of SpxB in survival of S. sanguinis in human blood and whether bacterial H2O2 exhibits cytotoxicity against human neutrophils. Results of a bactericidal test with human whole blood revealed that the spxB mutation in S. sanguinis is detrimental to its survival in blood. When S. sanguinis strains were exposed to isolated neutrophils, the bacterial survival rate was significantly decreased by spxB deletion. Furthermore, human neutrophils exposed to the S. sanguinis wild-type strain, in contrast to those exposed to an spxB mutant strain, underwent cell death with chromatin de-condensation and release of web-like extracellular DNA, reflecting induction of neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs). Since reactive oxygen species-mediated NET induction requires citrullination of arginine residues in histone proteins and subsequent chromatin de-condensation, we examined citrullination levels of histone in infected neutrophils. It is important to note that the citrullinated histone H3 was readily detected in neutrophils infected with the wild-type strain, as compared to infection with the spxB mutant strain. Moreover, decomposition of streptococcal H2O2 with catalase reduced NET induction. These results suggest that H2O2 produced by S. sanguinis provokes cell death of neutrophils and NET formation, thus potentially affecting bacterial survival in the bloodstream.

  16. Streptococcus sanguinis induces neutrophil cell death by production of hydrogen peroxide.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryuichi Sumioka

    Full Text Available Streptococcus is the dominant bacterial genus in the human oral cavity and a leading cause of infective endocarditis. Streptococcus sanguinis belongs to the mitis group of streptococci and produces hydrogen peroxide (H2O2 by the action of SpxB, a pyruvate oxidase. In this study, we investigated the involvement of SpxB in survival of S. sanguinis in human blood and whether bacterial H2O2 exhibits cytotoxicity against human neutrophils. Results of a bactericidal test with human whole blood revealed that the spxB mutation in S. sanguinis is detrimental to its survival in blood. When S. sanguinis strains were exposed to isolated neutrophils, the bacterial survival rate was significantly decreased by spxB deletion. Furthermore, human neutrophils exposed to the S. sanguinis wild-type strain, in contrast to those exposed to an spxB mutant strain, underwent cell death with chromatin de-condensation and release of web-like extracellular DNA, reflecting induction of neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs. Since reactive oxygen species-mediated NET induction requires citrullination of arginine residues in histone proteins and subsequent chromatin de-condensation, we examined citrullination levels of histone in infected neutrophils. It is important to note that the citrullinated histone H3 was readily detected in neutrophils infected with the wild-type strain, as compared to infection with the spxB mutant strain. Moreover, decomposition of streptococcal H2O2 with catalase reduced NET induction. These results suggest that H2O2 produced by S. sanguinis provokes cell death of neutrophils and NET formation, thus potentially affecting bacterial survival in the bloodstream.

  17. Predictive value of long-term changes of growth differentiation factor-15 over a 27-year-period for heart failure and death due to coronary heart disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fluschnik, Nina; Ojeda, Francisco; Zeller, Tanja; Jørgensen, Torben; Kuulasmaa, Kari; Becher, Peter Moritz; Sinning, Christoph; Blankenberg, Stefan; Westermann, Dirk

    2018-01-01

    Growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15), Cystatin C and C-reactive protein (CRP) have been discussed as biomarkers for prediction of cardiac diseases. The aim of this study was to investigate the predictive value of single and repeated measurements of GDF-15 compared to Cystatin C and CRP for incidence of heart failure (HF) and death due to coronary heart disease (CHD) in the general population. Levels of GDF-15, CRP and Cystatin C were determined in three repeated measurements collected 5 years apart in the DAN-MONICA (Danish-Multinational MONitoring of trends and determinants in Cardiovascular disease) cohort (participants at baseline n = 3785). Cox regression models adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors revealed significantly increased hazard ratios (HR) for GDF-15 for incident HF 1.36 (HR per interquartile range (IQR) increase, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.16; 1.59) and for death from CHD 1.51 (HR per IQR increase, 95% CI: 1.31, 1.75) (both with p<0.001). Joint modeling of time-to-event and longitudinal GDF-15 over a median 27-year follow-up period showed that the marker evolution was positively associated with death of CHD (HR per IQR increase 3.02 95% CI: (2.26, 4.04), p < 0.001) and HF (HR per IQR increase 2.12 95% CI: (1.54, 2.92), p<0.001). However using Cox models with follow-up time starting at the time of the third examination, serial measurement of GDF-15, modeled as changes between the measurements, did not improve prediction over that of the most recent measurement. GDF-15 is a promising biomarker for prediction of HF and death due to CHD in the general population, which may provide prognostic information to already established clinical biomarkers. Repeated measurements of GDF-15 displayed only a slight improvement in the prediction of these endpoints compared to a single measurement.

  18. Long-term prediction of prostate cancer diagnosis and death using PSA and obesity related anthropometrics at early middle age: data from the malmö preventive project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assel, Melissa J; Gerdtsson, Axel; Thorek, Daniel L J; Carlsson, Sigrid V; Malm, Johan; Scardino, Peter T; Vickers, Andrew; Lilja, Hans; Ulmert, David

    2018-01-19

    To evaluate whether anthropometric parameters add to PSA measurements in middle-aged men for risk assessment of prostate cancer (PCa) diagnosis and death. After adjusting for PSA, both BMI and weight were significantly associated with an increased risk of PCa death with the odds of a death corresponding to a 10 kg/m2 or 10 kg increase being 1.58 (95% CI 1.10, 2.28; p = 0.013) and 1.14 (95% CI 1.02, 1.26; p = 0.016) times greater, respectively. AUCs did not meaningfully increase with the addition of weight or BMI to prediction models including PSA. In 1974 to 1986, 22,444 Swedish men aged 44 to 50 enrolled in Malmö Preventive Project, Sweden, and provided blood samples and anthropometric data. Rates of PSA screening in the cohort were very low. Documentation of PCa diagnosis and disease-specific death up to 2014 was retrieved through national registries. Among men with anthropometric measurements available at baseline, a total of 1692 men diagnosed with PCa were matched to 4190 controls, and 464 men who died of disease were matched to 1390 controls. Multivariable conditional logistic regression was used to determine whether diagnosis or death from PCa were associated with weight and body mass index (BMI) at adulthood after adjusting for PSA. Men with higher BMI and weight at early middle age have an increased risk of PCa diagnosis and death after adjusting for PSA. However, in a multi-variable numerical statistical model, BMI and weight do not importantly improve the predictive accuracy of PSA. Risk-stratification of screening should be based on PSA without reference to anthropometrics.

  19. Pre-operative Carotid Plaque Echolucency Assessment has no Predictive Value for Long-Term Risk of Stroke or Cardiovascular Death in Patients Undergoing Carotid Endarterectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Waard, D; de Borst, G J; Bulbulia, R; Pan, H; Halliday, A

    2017-08-01

    In patients with carotid stenosis receiving medical treatment, carotid plaque echolucency has been thought to predict risk of future stroke and of other cardiovascular events. This study evaluated the prognostic value of pre-operative plaque echolucency for future stroke and cardiovascular death in patients undergoing carotid endarterectomy in the first Asymptomatic Carotid Surgery Trial (ACST-1). In ACST-1, 1832/3120 patients underwent carotid endarterectomy (CEA), of whom 894 had visual echolucency assessment according to the Gray-Weale classification. During follow-up patients were monitored both for peri-procedural (i.e. within 30 days) death, stroke, or MI, and for long-term risk of stroke or cardiovascular death. Unconditional maximum likelihood estimation was used to calculate odds ratios of peri-procedural risk and Kaplan-Meier statistics with log-rank test were used to compare cumulative long-term risks. Of 894 operated patients in whom echolucency was assessed, 458 plaques (51%) were rated as echolucent and peri-procedural risk of death/stroke/MI in these patients was non-significantly higher when compared with patients with non-echolucent plaques (OR 1.48 [95% CI 0.76-2.88], p = .241). No differences were found in the 10 year risk of any stroke (30/447 [11.6%] vs. 29/433 [11.0%], p = .900) or cardiovascular (non-stroke) death (85/447 [27.9%] vs. 93/433 [32.1%], p = .301). In ACST-1, carotid plaque echolucency assessment in patients undergoing CEA offered no predictive value with regard to peri-operative or long-term stroke risk or of cardiovascular (non-stroke) death. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  20. Predictive Models for Photovoltaic Electricity Production in Hot Weather Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jabar H. Yousif

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The process of finding a correct forecast equation for photovoltaic electricity production from renewable sources is an important matter, since knowing the factors affecting the increase in the proportion of renewable energy production and reducing the cost of the product has economic and scientific benefits. This paper proposes a mathematical model for forecasting energy production in photovoltaic (PV panels based on a self-organizing feature map (SOFM model. The proposed model is compared with other models, including the multi-layer perceptron (MLP and support vector machine (SVM models. Moreover, a mathematical model based on a polynomial function for fitting the desired output is proposed. Different practical measurement methods are used to validate the findings of the proposed neural and mathematical models such as mean square error (MSE, mean absolute error (MAE, correlation (R, and coefficient of determination (R2. The proposed SOFM model achieved a final MSE of 0.0007 in the training phase and 0.0005 in the cross-validation phase. In contrast, the SVM model resulted in a small MSE value equal to 0.0058, while the MLP model achieved a final MSE of 0.026 with a correlation coefficient of 0.9989, which indicates a strong relationship between input and output variables. The proposed SOFM model closely fits the desired results based on the R2 value, which is equal to 0.9555. Finally, the comparison results of MAE for the three models show that the SOFM model achieved a best result of 0.36156, whereas the SVM and MLP models yielded 4.53761 and 3.63927, respectively. A small MAE value indicates that the output of the SOFM model closely fits the actual results and predicts the desired output.

  1. Benthic Light Availability Improves Predictions of Riverine Primary Production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirk, L.; Cohen, M. J.

    2017-12-01

    Light is a fundamental control on photosynthesis, and often the only control strongly correlated with gross primary production (GPP) in streams and rivers; yet it has received far less attention than nutrients. Because benthic light is difficult to measure in situ, surrogates such as open sky irradiance are often used. Several studies have now refined methods to quantify canopy and water column attenuation of open sky light in order to estimate the amount of light that actually reaches the benthos. Given the additional effort that measuring benthic light requires, we should ask if benthic light always improves our predictions of GPP compared to just open sky irradiance. We use long-term, high-resolution dissolved oxygen, turbidity, dissolved organic matter (fDOM), and irradiance data from streams and rivers in north-central Florida, US across gradients of size and color to build statistical models of benthic light that predict GPP. Preliminary results on a large, clear river show only modest model improvements over open sky irradiance, even in heavily canopied reaches with pulses of tannic water. However, in another spring-fed river with greater connectivity to adjacent wetlands - and hence larger, more frequent pulses of tannic water - the model improved dramatically with the inclusion of fDOM (model R2 improved from 0.28 to 0.68). River shade modeling efforts also suggest that knowing benthic light will greatly enhance our ability to predict GPP in narrower, forested streams flowing in particular directions. Our objective is to outline conditions where an assessment of benthic light conditions would be necessary for riverine metabolism studies or management strategies.

  2. PREDICTION OF MEAT PRODUCT QUALITY BY THE MATHEMATICAL PROGRAMMING METHODS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. B. Lisitsyn

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Use of the prediction technologies is one of the directions of the research work carried out both in Russia and abroad. Meat processing is accompanied by the complex physico-chemical, biochemical and mechanical processes. To predict the behavior of meat raw material during the technological processing, a complex of physico-technological and structural-mechanical indicators, which objectively reflects its quality, is used. Among these indicators are pH value, water binding and fat holding capacities, water activity, adhesiveness, viscosity, plasticity and so on. The paper demonstrates the influence of animal proteins (beef and pork on the physico-chemical and functional properties before and after thermal treatment of minced meat made from meat raw material with different content of the connective and fat tissues. On the basis of the experimental data, the model (stochastic dependence parameters linking the quantitative resultant and factor variables were obtained using the regression analysis, and the degree of the correlation with the experimental data was assessed. The maximum allowable levels of meat raw material replacement with animal proteins (beef and pork were established by the methods of mathematical programming. Use of the information technologies will significantly reduce the costs of the experimental search and substantiation of the optimal level of replacement of meat raw material with animal proteins (beef, pork, and will also allow establishing a relationship of product quality indicators with quantity and quality of minced meat ingredients.

  3. After the pictures of others: pornography of death and cultural production in the digital context

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eva Navarro Martínez

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper will analyze some aspects of the digital and Internet distribution and its later re-appropriation of, so called, “dramatic images”. Of all characteristics and concepts related to the web net and its possibilities, it will focus in three: simulacrum, access and democratization and re-appropriation and control. These characteristics of digital images will be analyzed in the frame of a topic: the pornography of death (of terror, war and violence. The study cases are some of the images resulting of the so-called “war on terror”- after 9/11 terrorist attacks. A first example is the film Fitna by Dutch politician Gert Wilders and the second one is the publication of images of tortures to Iraqi prisoners by USA soldiers in Abu Ghraib and their further appropriations for different purposes. Starting from these examples special attention will paid to the processes of becoming “cultural and artistic object” nowadays, analyzing the oppositions between “cultural subject and cultural object”, “private and public”, “we and they”, “life and death”, “art and spectacle” are (unresolved in our cultural context, mainly after Internet.

  4. Economic Growth, Productivity, and Public Education Funding: Is South Carolina a Death Spiral State?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Driscoll, Lisa G.; Knoeppel, Robert C.; Della Sala, Matthew R.; Watson, Jim R.

    2014-01-01

    As a result of the Great Recession of 2007-2009, most states experienced declines in employment, consumer spending, and economic productivity (Alm, Buschman, and Sjoquist 2011). In turn, these events led to historic declines in state tax revenues (Mikesell and Mullins 2010; Boyd and Dadayan 2009), resulting in major cuts in public spending. Local…

  5. Illness, death, and macronutrients: adequacy of rural Mozambican household production of macronutrients in the face of HIV/AIDS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donovan, Cynthia; Massingue, Jaquelino

    2007-06-01

    As the public sector and civil society develop intervention programs to deal with the HIV/ AIDS epidemic, there has been an increasing emphasis on the relationship between nutrition and the disease. Drug interventions may be ineffective, and the progression from HIV infection to full-blown AIDS may be accelerated without adequate nutrition. Mozambique is still fighting an increasing prevalence rate of HIV including in rural areas. Rural households in Mozambique rely heavily on their own agricultural production for the basic macronutrients. To evaluate the extent to which household agricultural production of basic staples meets overall household needs for major macronutrients, comparing households affected and not directly affected by HIV/ AIDS and other major illnesses over two time periods. Methods. This research analyzes nationally representative panel data from rural household surveys conducted in 2002 and 2005 to evaluate whether households that have suffered the chronic illness or illness-related death of prime-age adult members (15 to 49 years of age) are more vulnerable to macronutrient gaps. Households in the South and in the North with a male illness or death in 2002 produced significantly less macronutrients from crops in 2005 than nonaffected households. These households also had significantly lower income per adult equivalent. Mortality or illness from HIV/AIDS affects the ability of agricultural households dependent on own-food production to produce macronutrients. Interventions to improve access to food may be needed for affected households, particularly in light of their inability to recover over time. More analysis is needed to understand income sources, crop diversification, and access to macronutrients through the market.

  6. Strengthening the case that elevated levels of programmed death ligand 1 predict poor prognosis in hepatocellular carcinoma patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhong J

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Jian-Hong Zhong,1,* Cheng-Piao Luo,2,* Chun-Yan Zhang,2 Le-Qun Li1 1Hepatobiliary Surgery Department, 2Experimental Department, Affiliated Tumor Hospital of Guangxi Medical University, Nanning, People’s Republic of China *These authors contributed equally to this work Abstract: Immunotherapy targeting programmed death receptor 1 and programmed death ligand 1 (PD-L1 has shown impressive antitumor efficacy in several solid cancers, including advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC. Since response rates of various cancers to such immunotherapy appear to correlate with PD-L1 expression levels, several studies have examined whether PD-L1 expression correlates with HCC pathology and patient prognosis. In this paper, we analyzed the strength and limitations of a recent meta-analysis of associations of PD-L1 with HCC characteristics and patient prognosis. Keywords: hepatocellular carcinoma, programmed death ligand 1, hepatic resection, prognoses

  7. Analysis of the production of salmon fillet - Prediction of production yield

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansson, Gine Ørnholt; Guðjónsdóttir, María; Nielsen, Michael Engelbrecht

    2017-01-01

    The aim was to investigate the influence of raw material variation in Atlantic salmon from aquaculture on filleting yield, and to develop a decision tool for choosing the appropriate raw material for optimized yield. This was achieved by tracking salmon on an individual level (n = 60) through...... a primary production site. The majority of the salmon exhibited a heavier right fillet compared to the left fillet after filleting. No explicit explanation was found for this observation although the heading procedure was shown to have a large impact. A Partial Least Square model was built to predict....... This may facilitate optimal planning of the production of salmon fillets by ordering and assigning the right batch to the right product category to obtain an optimal yield and quality....

  8. Characterization of the programmed cell death induced by metabolic products of Alternaria alternata in tobacco BY-2 cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Dan-Dan; Jia, Yu-Jiao; Gao, Hui-Yuan; Zhang, Li-Tao; Zhang, Zi-Shan; Xue, Zhong-Cai; Meng, Qing-Wei

    2011-02-01

    Alternaria alternata has received considerable attention in current literature and most of the studies are focused on its pathogenic effects on plant chloroplasts, but little is known about the characteristics of programmed cell death (PCD) induced by metabolic products (MP) of A. alternata, the effects of the MP on mitochondrial respiration and its relation to PCD. The purpose of this study was to explore the mechanism of MP-induced PCD in non-green tobacco BY-2 cells and to explore the role of mitochondrial inhibitory processes in the PCD of tobacco BY-2 cells. MP treatment led to significant cell death that was proven to be PCD by the concurrent cytoplasm shrinkage, chromatin condensation and DNA laddering observed in the cells. Moreover, MP treatment resulted in the overproduction of reactive oxygen species (ROS), rapid ATP depletion and a respiratory decline in the tobacco BY-2 cells. It was concluded that the direct inhibition of the mitochondrial electron transport chain (ETC), alternative pathway (AOX) capacity and catalase (CAT) activity by the MP might be the main contributors to the MP-induced ROS burst observed in tobacco BY-2 cells. The addition of adenosine together with the MP significantly inhibited ATP depletion without preventing PCD; however, when the cells were treated with the MP plus CAT, ROS overproduction was blocked and PCD did not occur. The data presented here demonstrate that the ROS burst played an important role in MP-induced PCD in the tobacco BY-2 cells.

  9. Years of Life and Productivity Loss from Potentially Avoidable Colorectal Cancer Deaths in U.S. Counties with Lower Educational Attainment (2008-2012).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weir, Hannah K; Li, Chunyu; Henley, S Jane; Joseph, Djenaba

    2017-05-01

    Background: Educational attainment (EA) is inversely associated with colorectal cancer risk. Colorectal cancer screening can save lives if precancerous polyps or early cancers are found and successfully treated. This study aims to estimate the potential productivity loss (PPL) and associated avoidable colorectal cancer-related deaths among screen-eligible adults residing in lower EA counties in the United States. Methods: Mortality and population data were used to examine colorectal cancer deaths (2008-2012) among adults aged 50 to 74 years in lower EA counties, and to estimate the expected number of deaths using the mortality experience from high EA counties. Excess deaths (observed-expected) were used to estimate potential years life lost, and the human capital method was used to estimate PPL in 2012 U.S. dollars. Results: County-level colorectal cancer death rates were inversely associated with county-level EA. Of the 100,857 colorectal cancer deaths in lower EA counties, we estimated that more than 21,000 (1 in 5) was potentially avoidable and resulted in nearly $2 billion annual productivity loss. Conclusions: County-level EA disparities contribute to a large number of potentially avoidable colorectal cancer-related deaths. Increased prevention and improved screening potentially could decrease deaths and help reduce the associated economic burden in lower EA communities. Increased screening could further reduce deaths in all EA groups. Impact: These results estimate the large economic impact of potentially avoidable colorectal cancer-related deaths in economically disadvantaged communities, as measured by lower EA. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 26(5); 736-42. ©2016 AACR . ©2016 American Association for Cancer Research.

  10. Years of Life and Productivity Loss from Potentially Avoidable Colorectal Cancer Deaths in U.S. Counties with Lower Educational Attainment (2008–2012)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weir, Hannah K.; Li, Chunyu; Henley, S. Jane; Joseph, Djenaba

    2018-01-01

    Background Educational attainment (EA) is inversely associated with colorectal cancer risk. Colorectal cancer screening can save lives if precancerous polyps or early cancers are found and successfully treated. This study aims to estimate the potential productivity loss (PPL) and associated avoidable colorectal cancer–related deaths among screen-eligible adults residing in lower EA counties in the United States. Methods Mortality and population data were used to examine colorectal cancer deaths (2008–2012) among adults aged 50 to 74 years in lower EA counties, and to estimate the expected number of deaths using the mortality experience from high EA counties. Excess deaths (observed–expected) were used to estimate potential years life lost, and the human capital method was used to estimate PPL in 2012 U.S. dollars. Results County-level colorectal cancer death rates were inversely associated with county-level EA. Of the 100,857 colorectal cancer deaths in lower EA counties, we estimated that more than 21,000 (1 in 5) was potentially avoidable and resulted in nearly $2 billion annual productivity loss. Conclusions County-level EA disparities contribute to a large number of potentially avoidable colorectal cancer–related deaths. Increased prevention and improved screening potentially could decrease deaths and help reduce the associated economic burden in lower EA communities. Increased screening could further reduce deaths in all EA groups. Impact These results estimate the large economic impact of potentially avoidable colorectal cancer–related deaths in economically disadvantaged communities, as measured by lower EA. PMID:28003180

  11. CERT depletion predicts chemotherapy benefit and mediates cytotoxic and polyploid‐specific cancer cell death through autophagy induction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lee, Alvin J. X.; Roylance, Rebecca; Sander, Jil

    2012-01-01

    cell microscopy analysis revealed that CERT depletion induces LAMP2‐dependent death of polyploid cells following exit from mitosis in the presence of paclitaxel. We find that CERT is relatively over‐expressed in HER2+ breast cancer and CERT protein expression acts as an independent prognostic variable...

  12. Predicting the economic costs and property value losses attributed to sudden oak death damage in California (2010-2020)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kent Kovacs; Tomas Václavík; Robert G. Haight; Arwin Pang; Nik J. Cunniffe; Christopher A. Gilligan; Ross K. Meentemeyer

    2011-01-01

    Phytophthora ramorum, cause of sudden oak death, is a quarantined, non-native, invasive forest pathogen resulting in substantial mortality in coastal live oak (Quercus agrifolia) and several other related tree species on the Pacific Coast of the United States. We estimate the discounted cost of oak treatment, removal, and...

  13. Pseudonormal and restrictive filling patterns predict left ventricular dilation and cardiac death after a first myocardial infarction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, J E; Søndergaard, E; Poulsen, S H

    2000-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: We sought to assess the prognostic value of left ventricular (LV) filling patterns, as determined by mitral E-wave deceleration time (DT) and color M-mode flow propagation velocity (Vp), on cardiac death and serial changes in LV volumes after a first myocardial infarction (MI). BACKGR...

  14. Application of large computers for predicting the oil field production

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Philipp, W; Gunkel, W; Marsal, D

    1971-10-01

    The flank injection drive plays a dominant role in the exploitation of the BEB-oil fields. Therefore, 2-phase flow computer models were built up, adapted to a predominance of a single flow direction and combining a high accuracy of prediction with a low job time. Any case study starts with the partitioning of the reservoir into blocks. Then the statistics of the time-independent reservoir properties are analyzed by means of an IBM 360/25 unit. Using these results and the past production of oil, water and gas, a Fortran-program running on a CDC-3300 computer yields oil recoveries and the ratios of the relative permeabilities as a function of the local oil saturation for all blocks penetrated by mobile water. In order to assign kDwU/KDoU-functions to blocks not yet reached by the advancing water-front, correlation analysis is used to relate reservoir properties to kDwU/KDoU-functions. All these results are used as input into a CDC-660 Fortran program, allowing short-, medium-, and long-term forecasts as well as the handling of special problems.

  15. Games of life and death: antibiotic resistance and production through the lens of evolutionary game theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conlin, Peter L; Chandler, Josephine R; Kerr, Benjamin

    2014-10-01

    In this review, we demonstrate how game theory can be a useful first step in modeling and understanding interactions among bacteria that produce and resist antibiotics. We introduce the basic features of evolutionary game theory and explore model microbial systems that correspond to some classical games. Each game discussed defines a different category of social interaction with different resulting population dynamics (exclusion, coexistence, bistability, cycling). We then explore how the framework can be extended to incorporate some of the complexity of natural microbial communities. Overall, the game theoretical perspective helps to guide our expectations about the evolution of some forms of antibiotic resistance and production because it makes clear the precise nature of social interaction in this context. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Calcium-dependent nitric oxide production is involved in the cytoprotective properties of n-acetylcysteine in glycochenodeoxycholic acid-induced cell death in hepatocytes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez-Rubio, Sandra; Linares, Clara I.; Bello, Rosario I.; Gonzalez, Raul; Ferrin, Gustavo; Hidalgo, Ana B.; Munoz-Gomariz, Elisa; Rodriguez, Blanca A.; Barrera, Pilar; Ranchal, Isidora; Duran-Prado, Mario; Aguilar-Melero, Patricia; De la Mata, Manuel; Muntane, Jordi

    2010-01-01

    The intracellular oxidative stress has been involved in bile acid-induced cell death in hepatocytes. Nitric oxide (NO) exerts cytoprotective properties in glycochenodeoxycholic acid (GCDCA)-treated hepatocytes. The study evaluated the involvement of Ca 2+ on the regulation of NO synthase (NOS)-3 expression during N-acetylcysteine (NAC) cytoprotection against GCDCA-induced cell death in hepatocytes. The regulation of Ca 2+ pools (EGTA or BAPTA-AM) and NO (L-NAME or NO donor) production was assessed during NAC cytoprotection in GCDCA-treated HepG2 cells. The stimulation of Ca 2+ entrance was induced by A23187 in HepG2. Cell death, Ca 2+ mobilization, NOS-1, -2 and -3 expression, AP-1 activation, and NO production were evaluated. GCDCA reduced intracellular Ca 2+ concentration and NOS-3 expression, and enhanced cell death in HepG2. NO donor prevented, and L-NAME enhanced, GCDCA-induced cell death. The reduction of Ca 2+ entry by EGTA, but not its release from intracellular stores by BAPTA-AM, enhanced cell death in GCDCA-treated cells. The stimulation of Ca 2+ entrance by A23187 reduced cell death and enhanced NOS-3 expression in GCDCA-treated HepG2 cells. The cytoprotective properties of NAC were related to the recovery of intracellular Ca 2+ concentration, NOS-3 expression and NO production induced by GCDCA-treated HepG2 cells. The increase of NO production by Ca 2+ -dependent NOS-3 expression during NAC administration reduces cell death in GCDCA-treated hepatocytes.

  17. Calcium-dependent nitric oxide production is involved in the cytoprotective properties of n-acetylcysteine in glycochenodeoxycholic acid-induced cell death in hepatocytes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gonzalez-Rubio, Sandra; Linares, Clara I; Bello, Rosario I [Liver Research Unit, Reina Sofia University Hospital, Cordoba (Spain); Gonzalez, Raul; Ferrin, Gustavo [Liver Research Unit, Reina Sofia University Hospital, Cordoba (Spain); Centro de Investigacion Biomedica en Red de Enfermedades Hepaticas y Digestivas (CIBEREH o Ciberehd) (Spain); Hidalgo, Ana B [Liver Research Unit, Reina Sofia University Hospital, Cordoba (Spain); Munoz-Gomariz, Elisa [Department of Biostatistics, Reina Sofia University Hospital, Cordoba (Spain); Rodriguez, Blanca A [Liver Research Unit, Reina Sofia University Hospital, Cordoba (Spain); Barrera, Pilar; Ranchal, Isidora [Liver Research Unit, Reina Sofia University Hospital, Cordoba (Spain); Centro de Investigacion Biomedica en Red de Enfermedades Hepaticas y Digestivas (CIBEREH o Ciberehd) (Spain); Duran-Prado, Mario [Instituto de Parasitologia y Biomedicina Lopez Neyra, CSIC, Granada (Spain); CIBER Fisiopatologia de la Obesidad y Nutricion CB06/03, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Ministerio de Sanidad y Consumo (Spain); Aguilar-Melero, Patricia [Liver Research Unit, Reina Sofia University Hospital, Cordoba (Spain); De la Mata, Manuel [Liver Research Unit, Reina Sofia University Hospital, Cordoba (Spain); Centro de Investigacion Biomedica en Red de Enfermedades Hepaticas y Digestivas (CIBEREH o Ciberehd) (Spain); Muntane, Jordi [Liver Research Unit, Reina Sofia University Hospital, Cordoba (Spain); Centro de Investigacion Biomedica en Red de Enfermedades Hepaticas y Digestivas (CIBEREH o Ciberehd) (Spain)

    2010-01-15

    The intracellular oxidative stress has been involved in bile acid-induced cell death in hepatocytes. Nitric oxide (NO) exerts cytoprotective properties in glycochenodeoxycholic acid (GCDCA)-treated hepatocytes. The study evaluated the involvement of Ca{sup 2+} on the regulation of NO synthase (NOS)-3 expression during N-acetylcysteine (NAC) cytoprotection against GCDCA-induced cell death in hepatocytes. The regulation of Ca{sup 2+} pools (EGTA or BAPTA-AM) and NO (L-NAME or NO donor) production was assessed during NAC cytoprotection in GCDCA-treated HepG2 cells. The stimulation of Ca{sup 2+} entrance was induced by A23187 in HepG2. Cell death, Ca{sup 2+} mobilization, NOS-1, -2 and -3 expression, AP-1 activation, and NO production were evaluated. GCDCA reduced intracellular Ca{sup 2+} concentration and NOS-3 expression, and enhanced cell death in HepG2. NO donor prevented, and L-NAME enhanced, GCDCA-induced cell death. The reduction of Ca{sup 2+} entry by EGTA, but not its release from intracellular stores by BAPTA-AM, enhanced cell death in GCDCA-treated cells. The stimulation of Ca{sup 2+} entrance by A23187 reduced cell death and enhanced NOS-3 expression in GCDCA-treated HepG2 cells. The cytoprotective properties of NAC were related to the recovery of intracellular Ca{sup 2+} concentration, NOS-3 expression and NO production induced by GCDCA-treated HepG2 cells. The increase of NO production by Ca{sup 2+}-dependent NOS-3 expression during NAC administration reduces cell death in GCDCA-treated hepatocytes.

  18. Early CT findings to predict early death in patients with traumatic brain injury: Marshall and Rotterdam CT scoring systems compared in the major academic tertiary care hospital in northeastern Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mata-Mbemba, Daddy; Mugikura, Shunji; Nakagawa, Atsuhiro; Murata, Takaki; Ishii, Kiyoshi; Li, Li; Takase, Kei; Kushimoto, Shigeki; Takahashi, Shoki

    2014-05-01

    Computed tomography (CT) plays a crucial role in early assessment of patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI). Marshall and Rotterdam are the mostly used scoring systems, in which CT findings are grouped differently. We sought to determine the scoring system and initial CT findings predicting the death at hospital discharge (early death) in patients with TBI. We included 245 consecutive adult patients with mild-to-severe TBI. Their initial CT and status at hospital discharge (dead or alive) were reviewed, and both CT scores were calculated. We examined whether each score was related to early death; compared the two scoring systems' performance in predicting early death, and identified the CT findings that are independent predictors of early death. More deaths occurred among patients with higher Marshall and Rotterdam scores (both P death (Marshall, AUC = 0. 85 vs. Rotterdam, AUC = 0.85). Basal cistern absence (odds ratio [OR] = 771.5, P death. Both Marshall and Rotterdam scoring systems can be used to predict early death in patients with TBI. The performance of the Marshall score is at least equal to that of the Rotterdam score. Thus, although older, the Marshall score remains useful in predicting patients' prognosis. Copyright © 2014 AUR. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Colon cancer stem cells dictate tumor growth and resist cell death by production of interleukin-4.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todaro, Matilde; Alea, Mileidys Perez; Di Stefano, Anna B; Cammareri, Patrizia; Vermeulen, Louis; Iovino, Flora; Tripodo, Claudio; Russo, Antonio; Gulotta, Gaspare; Medema, Jan Paul; Stassi, Giorgio

    2007-10-11

    A novel paradigm in tumor biology suggests that cancer growth is driven by stem-like cells within a tumor. Here, we describe the identification and characterization of such cells from colon carcinomas using the stem cell marker CD133 that accounts around 2% of the cells in human colon cancer. The CD133(+) cells grow in vitro as undifferentiated tumor spheroids, and they are both necessary and sufficient to initiate tumor growth in immunodeficient mice. Xenografts resemble the original human tumor maintaining the rare subpopulation of tumorigenic CD133(+) cells. Further analysis revealed that the CD133(+) cells produce and utilize IL-4 to protect themselves from apoptosis. Consistently, treatment with IL-4Ralpha antagonist or anti-IL-4 neutralizing antibody strongly enhances the antitumor efficacy of standard chemotherapeutic drugs through selective sensitization of CD133(+) cells. Our data suggest that colon tumor growth is dictated by stem-like cells that are treatment resistant due to the autocrine production of IL-4.

  20. Use of Proton-Pump Inhibitors Predicts Heart Failure and Death in Patients with Coronary Artery Disease.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana María Pello Lázaro

    Full Text Available Proton-pump inhibitors (PPIs seem to increase the incidence of cardiovascular events in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD, mainly in those using clopidogrel. We analysed the impact of PPIs on the prognosis of patients with stable CAD.We followed 706 patients with CAD. Primary outcome was the combination of secondary outcomes. Secondary outcomes were 1 acute ischaemic events (any acute coronary syndrome, stroke, or transient ischaemic attack and 2 heart failure (HF or death.Patients on PPIs were older [62.0 (53.0-73.0 vs. 58.0 (50.0-70.0 years; p = 0.003] and had a more frequent history of stroke (4.9% vs. 1.1%; p = 0.004 than those from the non-PPI group, and presented no differences in any other clinical variable, including cardiovascular risk factors, ejection fraction, and therapy with aspirin and clopidogrel. Follow-up was 2.2±0.99 years. Seventy-eight patients met the primary outcome, 53 developed acute ischaemic events, and 33 HF or death. PPI use was an independent predictor of the primary outcome [hazard ratio (HR = 2.281 (1.244-4.183; p = 0.008], along with hypertension, body-mass index, glomerular filtration rate, atrial fibrillation, and nitrate use. PPI use was also an independent predictor of HF/death [HR = 5.713 (1.628-20.043; p = 0.007], but not of acute ischaemic events. A propensity score showed similar results.In patients with CAD, PPI use is independently associated with an increased incidence of HF and death but not with a high rate of acute ischaemic events. Further studies are needed to confirm these findings.

  1. Drug Concentration Thresholds Predictive of Therapy Failure and Death in Children With Tuberculosis: Bread Crumb Trails in Random Forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swaminathan, Soumya; Pasipanodya, Jotam G; Ramachandran, Geetha; Hemanth Kumar, A K; Srivastava, Shashikant; Deshpande, Devyani; Nuermberger, Eric; Gumbo, Tawanda

    2016-11-01

     The role of drug concentrations in clinical outcomes in children with tuberculosis is unclear. Target concentrations for dose optimization are unknown.  Plasma drug concentrations measured in Indian children with tuberculosis were modeled using compartmental pharmacokinetic analyses. The children were followed until end of therapy to ascertain therapy failure or death. An ensemble of artificial intelligence algorithms, including random forests, was used to identify predictors of clinical outcome from among 30 clinical, laboratory, and pharmacokinetic variables.  Among the 143 children with known outcomes, there was high between-child variability of isoniazid, rifampin, and pyrazinamide concentrations: 110 (77%) completed therapy, 24 (17%) failed therapy, and 9 (6%) died. The main predictors of therapy failure or death were a pyrazinamide peak concentration <38.10 mg/L and rifampin peak concentration <3.01 mg/L. The relative risk of these poor outcomes below these peak concentration thresholds was 3.64 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.28-5.83). Isoniazid had concentration-dependent antagonism with rifampin and pyrazinamide, with an adjusted odds ratio for therapy failure of 3.00 (95% CI, 2.08-4.33) in antagonism concentration range. In regard to death alone as an outcome, the same drug concentrations, plus z scores (indicators of malnutrition), and age <3 years, were highly ranked predictors. In children <3 years old, isoniazid 0- to 24-hour area under the concentration-time curve <11.95 mg/L × hour and/or rifampin peak <3.10 mg/L were the best predictors of therapy failure, with relative risk of 3.43 (95% CI, .99-11.82).  We have identified new antibiotic target concentrations, which are potential biomarkers associated with treatment failure and death in children with tuberculosis. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

  2. Value of Combining Left Atrial Diameter and Amino-terminal Pro-brain Natriuretic Peptide to the CHA2DS2-VASc Score for Predicting Stroke and Death in Patients with Sick Sinus Syndrome after Pacemaker Implantation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bin-Feng Mo

    2017-01-01

    Conclusions: CHA2DS2-VASc score is valuable for predicting stroke and death risk in patients with SSS after pacemaker implantation. The addition of LAD and NT-proBNP to the CHA2DS2-VASc score improved its predictive power for stroke and death, respectively, in this patient cohort. Future prospective studies are warranted to validate the benefit of adding LAD and NT-proBNP to the CHA2DS2-VASc score for predicting stroke and death risk in non-AF populations.

  3. Cardiac troponin-I on diagnosis predicts early death and refractoriness in acquired thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura. Experience of the French Thrombotic Microangiopathies Reference Center.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benhamou, Y; Boelle, P-Y; Baudin, B; Ederhy, S; Gras, J; Galicier, L; Azoulay, E; Provôt, F; Maury, E; Pène, F; Mira, J-P; Wynckel, A; Presne, C; Poullin, P; Halimi, J-M; Delmas, Y; Kanouni, T; Seguin, A; Mousson, C; Servais, A; Bordessoule, D; Perez, P; Hamidou, M; Cohen, A; Veyradier, A; Coppo, P

    2015-02-01

    Cardiac involvement is a major cause of mortality in patients with thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura (TTP). However, diagnosis remains underestimated and delayed, owing to subclinical injuries. Cardiac troponin-I measurement (cTnI) on admission could improve the early diagnosis of cardiac involvement and have prognostic value. To assess the predictive value of cTnI in patients with TTP for death or refractoriness. The study involved a prospective cohort of adult TTP patients with acquired severe ADAMTS-13 deficiency ( 0.1 μg L(-1) ) was present in 78 patients (59%), of whom 46 (59%) had no clinical cardiac involvement. The main outcomes were death (25%) and refractoriness (17%). Age (P = 0.02) and cTnI level (P = 0.002) showed the greatest impact on survival. A cTnI level of > 0.25 μg L(-1) was the only independent factor in predicting death (odds ratio [OR] 2.87; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.13-7.22; P = 0.024) and/or refractoriness (OR 3.03; 95% CI 1.27-7.3; P = 0.01). A CTnI level of > 0.25 μg L(-1) at presentation in patients with TTP appears to be an independent factor associated with a three-fold increase in the risk of death or refractoriness. Therefore, cTnI level should be considered as a prognostic indicator in patients diagnosed with TTP. © 2014 International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis.

  4. A statistical approach to evaluate the performance of cardiac biomarkers in predicting death due to acute myocardial infarction: time-dependent ROC curve

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karaismailoğlu, Eda; Dikmen, Zeliha Günnur; Akbıyık, Filiz; Karaağaoğlu, Ahmet Ergun

    2018-04-30

    Background/aim: Myoglobin, cardiac troponin T, B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP), and creatine kinase isoenzyme MB (CK-MB) are frequently used biomarkers for evaluating risk of patients admitted to an emergency department with chest pain. Recently, time- dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis has been used to evaluate the predictive power of biomarkers where disease status can change over time. We aimed to determine the best set of biomarkers that estimate cardiac death during follow-up time. We also obtained optimal cut-off values of these biomarkers, which differentiates between patients with and without risk of death. A web tool was developed to estimate time intervals in risk. Materials and methods: A total of 410 patients admitted to the emergency department with chest pain and shortness of breath were included. Cox regression analysis was used to determine an optimal set of biomarkers that can be used for estimating cardiac death and to combine the significant biomarkers. Time-dependent ROC analysis was performed for evaluating performances of significant biomarkers and a combined biomarker during 240 h. The bootstrap method was used to compare statistical significance and the Youden index was used to determine optimal cut-off values. Results : Myoglobin and BNP were significant by multivariate Cox regression analysis. Areas under the time-dependent ROC curves of myoglobin and BNP were about 0.80 during 240 h, and that of the combined biomarker (myoglobin + BNP) increased to 0.90 during the first 180 h. Conclusion: Although myoglobin is not clinically specific to a cardiac event, in our study both myoglobin and BNP were found to be statistically significant for estimating cardiac death. Using this combined biomarker may increase the power of prediction. Our web tool can be useful for evaluating the risk status of new patients and helping clinicians in making decisions.

  5. Corosolic Acid Induces Non-Apoptotic Cell Death through Generation of Lipid Reactive Oxygen Species Production in Human Renal Carcinoma Caki Cells

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seon Min Woo

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Corosolic acid is one of the pentacyclic triterpenoids isolated from Lagerstroemia speciose and has been reported to exhibit anti-cancer and anti-proliferative activities in various cancer cells. In the present study, we investigated the molecular mechanisms of corosolic acid in cancer cell death. Corosolic acid induces a decrease of cell viability and an increase of cell cytotoxicity in human renal carcinoma Caki cells. Corosolic acid-induced cell death is not inhibited by apoptosis inhibitor (z-VAD-fmk, a pan-caspase inhibitor, necroptosis inhibitor (necrostatin-1, or ferroptosis inhibitors (ferrostatin-1 and deferoxamine (DFO. Furthermore, corosolic acid significantly induces reactive oxygen species (ROS levels, but antioxidants (N-acetyl-l-cysteine (NAC and trolox do not inhibit corosolic acid-induced cell death. Interestingly, corosolic acid induces lipid oxidation, and α-tocopherol markedly prevents corosolic acid-induced lipid peroxidation and cell death. Anti-chemotherapeutic effects of α-tocopherol are dependent on inhibition of lipid oxidation rather than inhibition of ROS production. In addition, corosolic acid induces non-apoptotic cell death in other renal cancer (ACHN and A498, breast cancer (MDA-MB231, and hepatocellular carcinoma (SK-Hep1 and Huh7 cells, and α-tocopherol markedly inhibits corosolic acid-induced cell death. Therefore, our results suggest that corosolic acid induces non-apoptotic cell death in cancer cells through the increase of lipid peroxidation.

  6. Trends in Deaths Involving Heroin and Synthetic Opioids Excluding Methadone, and Law Enforcement Drug Product Reports, by Census Region - United States, 2006-2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donnell, Julie K; Gladden, R Matthew; Seth, Puja

    2017-09-01

    Opioid overdose deaths quadrupled from 8,050 in 1999 to 33,091 in 2015 and accounted for 63% of drug overdose deaths in the United States in 2015. During 2010-2015, heroin overdose deaths quadrupled from 3,036 to 12,989 (1). Sharp increases in the supply of heroin and illicitly manufactured fentanyl (IMF) are likely contributing to increased deaths (2-6). CDC examined trends in unintentional and undetermined deaths involving heroin or synthetic opioids excluding methadone (i.e., synthetic opioids)* by the four U.S. Census regions during 2006-2015. Drug exhibits (i.e., drug products) obtained by law enforcement and reported to the Drug Enforcement Administration's (DEA's) National Forensic Laboratory Information System (NFLIS) that tested positive for heroin or fentanyl (i.e., drug reports) also were examined. All U.S. Census regions experienced substantial increases in deaths involving heroin from 2006 to 2015. Since 2010, the South and West experienced increases in heroin drug reports, whereas the Northeast and Midwest experienced steady increases during 2006-2015. † In the Northeast, Midwest, and South, deaths involving synthetic opioids and fentanyl drug reports increased considerably after 2013. These broad changes in the U.S. illicit drug market highlight the urgent need to track illicit drugs and enhance public health interventions targeting persons using or at high risk for using heroin or IMF.

  7. Death Cafe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miles, Lizzy; Corr, Charles A

    2017-06-01

    This article explains the meaning of the phrase Death Cafe and describes what typically occurs at a Death Cafe gathering. The article traces the history of the Death Cafe movement, explores some reasons why people take part in a Death Cafe gathering, and gives examples of what individuals think they might derive from their participation. In addition, this article notes similarities between the Death Cafe movement and three other developments in the field of death, dying, and bereavement. Finally, this article identifies two provisional lessons that can be drawn from Death Cafe gatherings and the Death Cafe movement itself.

  8. In vitro prediction of methane production by lactating dairy cows

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Macome, F. M.

    2017-01-01

    The aim of this thesis was to determine the relationship (if any) between in vivo CH4 production obtained using climate controlled respiration chambers and in vitro CH4 production using the gas production technique. The in vitro techniques are routinely used to evaluate the nutritional quality of

  9. The impact of predicted demand on energy production

    Science.gov (United States)

    El kafazi, I.; Bannari, R.; Aboutafail, My. O.

    2018-05-01

    Energy is crucial for human life, a secure and accessible supply of power is essential for the sustainability of societies. Economic development and demographic progression increase energy demand, prompting countries to conduct research and studies on energy demand and production. Although, increasing in energy demand in the future requires a correct determination of the amount of energy supplied. Our article studies the impact of demand on energy production to find the relationship between the two latter and managing properly the production between the different energy sources. Historical data of demand and energy production since 2000 are used. The data are processed by the regression model to study the impact of demand on production. The obtained results indicate that demand has a positive and significant impact on production (high impact). Production is also increasing but at a slower pace. In this work, Morocco is considered as a case study.

  10. Combinatorial DNA Damage Pairing Model Based on X-Ray-Induced Foci Predicts the Dose and LET Dependence of Cell Death in Human Breast Cells

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vadhavkar, Nikhil [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States); Pham, Christopher [University of Texas, Houston, TX (United States). MD Anderson Cancer Center; Georgescu, Walter [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Life Sciences Div.; Deschamps, Thomas [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Life Sciences Div.; Heuskin, Anne-Catherine [Univ. of Namur (Belgium). Namur Research inst. for Life Sciences (NARILIS), Research Center for the Physics of Matter and Radiation (PMR); Tang, Jonathan [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Life Sciences Div.; Costes, Sylvain V. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Life Sciences Div.

    2014-09-01

    In contrast to the classic view of static DNA double-strand breaks (DSBs) being repaired at the site of damage, we hypothesize that DSBs move and merge with each other over large distances (m). As X-ray dose increases, the probability of having DSB clusters increases as does the probability of misrepair and cell death. Experimental work characterizing the X-ray dose dependence of radiation-induced foci (RIF) in nonmalignant human mammary epithelial cells (MCF10A) is used here to validate a DSB clustering model. We then use the principles of the local effect model (LEM) to predict the yield of DSBs at the submicron level. Two mechanisms for DSB clustering, namely random coalescence of DSBs versus active movement of DSBs into repair domains are compared and tested. Simulations that best predicted both RIF dose dependence and cell survival after X-ray irradiation favored the repair domain hypothesis, suggesting the nucleus is divided into an array of regularly spaced repair domains of ~;;1.55 m sides. Applying the same approach to high-linear energy transfer (LET) ion tracks, we are able to predict experimental RIF/m along tracks with an overall relative error of 12percent, for LET ranging between 30 350 keV/m and for three different ions. Finally, cell death was predicted by assuming an exponential dependence on the total number of DSBs and of all possible combinations of paired DSBs within each simulated RIF. Relative biological effectiveness (RBE) predictions for cell survival of MCF10A exposed to high-LET showed an LET dependence that matches previous experimental results for similar cell types. Overall, this work suggests that microdosimetric properties of ion tracks at the submicron level are sufficient to explain both RIF data and survival curves for any LET, similarly to the LEM assumption. Conversely, high-LET death mechanism does not have to infer linear-quadratic dose formalism as done in the LEM. In addition, the size of repair domains derived in our model

  11. Predicting death from tumour necrosis factor-alpha and interleukin-6 in 80-year-old people

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruunsgaard, H; Ladelund, S; Pedersen, A N

    2003-01-01

    Ageing is associated with low-grade inflammation and markers such as IL-6 possess prognostic value. Tumour necrosis-alpha (TNF-alpha) initiates the inflammatory cascade and has been linked to several age-associated disorders. It remains, however, unknown if TNF-alpha is associated with mortality...... in old populations. The aim of the present study was to investigate if serum levels of TNF-alpha were associated with all-cause mortality independently of interleukin (IL)-6 in a prospective study of 333 relatively healthy 80-year-old people. A Cox regression model was used to explore effects of TNF......% of the variability in IL-6 and effects of the two cytokines were independent of each other as well as of other traditional risk factors for death [smoking, blood pressure, physical exercise, total cholesterol, co-morbidity, body mass index (BMI) and intake of anti-inflammatory drugs]. These findings indicate...

  12. Predicting death from tumour necrosis factor-alpha and interleukin-6 in 80-year-old people

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruunsgaard, H.; Ladelund, S.; Pedersen, Agnes Nadelmann

    2003-01-01

    Ageing is associated with low-grade inflammation and markers such as IL-6 possess prognostic value. Tumour necrosis-alpha (TNF-alpha ) initiates the inflammatory cascade and has been linked to several age-associated disorders. It remains, however, unknown if TNF-alpha is associated with mortality...... in old populations. The aim of the present study was to investigate if serum levels of TNF-alpha were associated with all-cause mortality independently of interleukin (IL)-6 in a prospective study of 333 relatively healthy 80-year-old people. A Cox regression model was used to explore effects of TNF......% of the variability in IL-6 and effects of the two cytokines were independent of each other as well as of other traditional risk factors for death [smoking, blood pressure, physical exercise, total cholesterol, co-morbidity, body mass index (BMI) and intake of anti-inflammatory drugs]. These findings indicate...

  13. Clinical Use of Programmed Cell Death-1 and Its Ligand Expression as Discriminatory and Predictive Markers in Ovarian Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatterjee, Jayanta; Dai, Wei; Aziz, Nor Haslinda Abd; Teo, Pei Yun; Wahba, John; Phelps, David L; Maine, Christian J; Whilding, Lynsey M; Dina, Roberto; Trevisan, Giorgia; Flower, Kirsty J; George, Andrew J T; Ghaem-Maghami, Sadaf

    2017-07-01

    Purpose: We aimed to establish whether programmed cell death-1 (PD-1) and programmed cell death ligand 1 (PD-L1) expression, in ovarian cancer tumor tissue and blood, could be used as biomarkers for discrimination of tumor histology and prognosis of ovarian cancer. Experimental Design: Immune cells were separated from blood, ascites, and tumor tissue obtained from women with suspected ovarian cancer and studied for the differential expression of possible immune biomarkers using flow cytometry. PD-L1 expression on tumor-associated inflammatory cells was assessed by immunohistochemistry and tissue microarray. Plasma soluble PD-L1 was measured using sandwich ELISA. The relationships among immune markers were explored using hierarchical cluster analyses. Results: Biomarkers from the discovery cohort that associated with PD-L1 + cells were found. PD-L1 + CD14 + cells and PD-L1 + CD11c + cells in the monocyte gate showed a distinct expression pattern when comparing benign tumors and epithelial ovarian cancers (EOCs)-confirmed in the validation cohort. Receiver operating characteristic curves showed PD-L1 + and PD-L1 + CD14 + cells in the monocyte gate performed better than the well-established tumor marker CA-125 alone. Plasma soluble PD-L1 was elevated in patients with EOC compared with healthy women and patients with benign ovarian tumors. Low total PD-1 + expression on lymphocytes was associated with improved survival. Conclusions: Differential expression of immunological markers relating to the PD-1/PD-L1 pathway in blood can be used as potential diagnostic and prognostic markers in EOC. These data have implications for the development and trial of anti-PD-1/PD-L1 therapy in ovarian cancer. Clin Cancer Res; 23(13); 3453-60. ©2016 AACR . ©2016 American Association for Cancer Research.

  14. Clinical value of iodine-123 beta-methyliodophenyl pentadecanoic acid (BMIPP) myocardial single photon emission computed tomography for predicting cardiac death among patients with chronic heart failure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sasaki, Ryu; Usui, Takashi; Mitani, Isao

    2003-01-01

    In the present study, the effectiveness of 123 I-β-methyliodophenyl pentadecanoic acid (BMIPP) single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) for predicting cardiac death of patients with chronic heart failure was evaluated. Abnormalities of fatty acid metabolism are found in patients with chronic heart failure and BMIPP was developed as a tracer for scintigraphic assessment of myocardial fatty acid utilization. The study group comprised 74 patients with chronic heart failure with a left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) 201 Tl SPECT and BMIPP SPECT. The uptake of tracer was scored semiquantitatively from 0 (normal) to 4 (defect) in 20 segments and a total defect score (TDS) for all 20 segments was calculated. On planar images the mediastinum to heart count ratio (H/M) was calculated for the BMIPP and Tl studies, and the H/M BMIPP :H/M Tl (H/M BMIPP divided by H/M Tl ) was also calculated. The mean follow-up period was 660 days and there were 17 cases of cardiac death. Multivariate analysis identified H/M BMIPP :H/M Tl (p BMIPP :H/M Tl was situated to the left relative to LVEF. Analysis of the myocardial metabolism by BMIPP SPECT can predict the high-risk patients with chronic heart failure. (author)

  15. Risk Factors Analysis and Death Prediction in Some Life-Threatening Ailments Using Chi-Square Case-Based Reasoning (χ2 CBR) Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adeniyi, D A; Wei, Z; Yang, Y

    2018-01-30

    A wealth of data are available within the health care system, however, effective analysis tools for exploring the hidden patterns in these datasets are lacking. To alleviate this limitation, this paper proposes a simple but promising hybrid predictive model by suitably combining the Chi-square distance measurement with case-based reasoning technique. The study presents the realization of an automated risk calculator and death prediction in some life-threatening ailments using Chi-square case-based reasoning (χ 2 CBR) model. The proposed predictive engine is capable of reducing runtime and speeds up execution process through the use of critical χ 2 distribution value. This work also showcases the development of a novel feature selection method referred to as frequent item based rule (FIBR) method. This FIBR method is used for selecting the best feature for the proposed χ 2 CBR model at the preprocessing stage of the predictive procedures. The implementation of the proposed risk calculator is achieved through the use of an in-house developed PHP program experimented with XAMP/Apache HTTP server as hosting server. The process of data acquisition and case-based development is implemented using the MySQL application. Performance comparison between our system, the NBY, the ED-KNN, the ANN, the SVM, the Random Forest and the traditional CBR techniques shows that the quality of predictions produced by our system outperformed the baseline methods studied. The result of our experiment shows that the precision rate and predictive quality of our system in most cases are equal to or greater than 70%. Our result also shows that the proposed system executes faster than the baseline methods studied. Therefore, the proposed risk calculator is capable of providing useful, consistent, faster, accurate and efficient risk level prediction to both the patients and the physicians at any time, online and on a real-time basis.

  16. Prediction of enthalpy and thermal conductivity of frozen meat and fish products from composition data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sman, van der R.G.M.

    2008-01-01

    In this paper we present models predicting thermophysical properties of frozen meat products purely using their composition data. Based on our previous model, predicting the water activity of (frozen) meat and fish products, while taking into account the non-ideality of the unfrozen solution, we can

  17. Predicting the spread of sudden oak death in California (2010-2030): epidemic outcomes under no control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross K. Meentemeyer; Nik Cunniffe; Alex Cook; David M. Rizzo; Chris A. Gilligan

    2010-01-01

    Landscape- to regional-scale models of plant epidemics are direly needed to predict largescale impacts of disease and assess practicable options for control. While landscape heterogeneity is recognized as a major driver of disease dynamics, epidemiological models are rarely applied to realistic landscape conditions due to computational and data limitations. Here we...

  18. Predicting and preventing mold spoilage of food products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dagnas, Stéphane; Membré, Jeanne-Marie

    2013-03-01

    This article is a review of how to quantify mold spoilage and consequently shelf life of a food product. Mold spoilage results from having a product contaminated with fungal spores that germinate and form a visible mycelium before the end of the shelf life. The spoilage can be then expressed as the combination of the probability of having a product contaminated and the probability of mold growth (germination and proliferation) up to a visible mycelium before the end of the shelf life. For products packed before being distributed to the retailers, the probability of having a product contaminated is a function of factors strictly linked to the factory design, process, and environment. The in-factory fungal contamination of a product might be controlled by good manufacturing hygiene practices and reduced by particular processing practices such as an adequate air-renewal system. To determine the probability of mold growth, both germination and mycelium proliferation can be mathematically described by primary models. When mold contamination on the product is scarce, the spores are spread on the product and more than a few spores are unlikely to be found at the same spot. In such a case, models applicable for a single spore should be used. Secondary models can be used to describe the effect of intrinsic and extrinsic factors on either the germination or proliferation of molds. Several polynomial models and gamma-type models quantifying the effect of water activity and temperature on mold growth are available. To a lesser extent, the effect of pH, ethanol, heat treatment, addition of preservatives, and modified atmospheres on mold growth also have been quantified. However, mold species variability has not yet been properly addressed, and only a few secondary models have been validated for food products. Once the probability of having mold spoilage is calculated for various shelf lives and product formulations, the model can be implemented as part of a risk management

  19. Early productive vocabulary predicts academic achievement 10 years later

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bleses, Dorthe; Makransky, Guido; Dale, Philip

    2016-01-01

    comprehension, can be predicted from an early vocabulary measure as early as 16 months with effect sizes (in proportion of variance accounted for) comparable to one year’s mean growth in reading scores. The findings confirm in a relatively large population based study that late talkers are at risk for later...

  20. Predictive ability of boiler production models | Ogundu | Animal ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The weekly body weight measurements of a growing strain of Ross broiler were used to compare the of ability of three mathematical models (the multi, linear, quadratic and Exponential) to predict 8 week body weight from early body measurements at weeks I, II, III, IV, V, VI and VII. The results suggest that the three models ...

  1. Development of a predictive system for SLM product quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, H. S.; Tran, N. H.; Nguyen, D. S.

    2017-08-01

    Recently, layer by layer manufacturing or additive manufacturing (AM) has been used in many application fields. Selective laser melting (SLM) is the most attractive method for building layer by layer from metallic powders. However, applications of AM in general and SLM in particular to industry have some barriers due to the quality of the manufactured parts which are affected by the high residual stresses and large deformation. SLM process is characterized by high heat source and fast solidification which lead to large thermal stress. The aim of this research is to develop a system for predicting the printed part quality during SLM process by simulation in consideration of the temperature distribution on the workpiece. For carrying out the system, model for predicting the temperature distribution was established. From this model, influences of process parameters to temperature distribution were analysed. The thermal model in consideration of relationship among printing parameters with temperature distribution is used for optimizing printing process parameters. Then, these results are used for calculating residual stress and predicting the workpiece deformation. The functionality of the proposed predictive system is proven through a case study on aluminium material manufactured on a MetalSys150 - SLM machine.

  2. empirical model for predicting rate of biogas production

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    users

    Rate of biogas production using cow manure as substrate was monitored in two laboratory scale ... Biogas is a Gas obtained by anaerobic ... A. A. Adamu, Petroleum and Natural Gas Processing Department, Petroleum Training Institute, P.M.B..

  3. Use of a finite element model of heat transport in the human eye to predict time of death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smart, Jimmy L; Kaliszan, Michal

    2013-01-01

    The goal of this work was to compare human temperature decay curves generated from execution of a COMSOL Multiphysics(®) finite element software model with that of experimental postmortem temperature decay curves. Experiments were performed in 10 human cadavers. The postmortem temperature was continuously measured in human eyeballs and rectums from c. 3 h up to 15 h postmortem. Model-generated curves reflected experimental curves for 10 cases with coefficients of determination ranging from 0.9448 to 0.9953. From modeling efforts, normalized temperature decay curves were generated to aid first responders to estimate time of death within the early postmortem period of 0-24 h. This proposed model has advantages over other models in that it is applied to the human eyeball, where temperature plateau effects are minimal to nonexistent. Nevertheless, the proposed model can be adjusted to compensate for any temperature plateau effects that do exist. It also can take account of antemortem hyperthermia conditions that are known to have occurred. The current model only applies to natural environmental conditions, with no forced convection, no direct sunlight, immersion in water, or other unusual conditions. © 2012 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  4. Deliberating death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landes, Scott D

    2010-01-01

    Utilizing a particular case study of a woman attempting to come to terms with her death, this article explores the difficult metaphors of death present within the Christian tradition. Tracing a Christian understanding of death back to the work of Augustine, the case study is utilized to highlight the difficulties presented by past and present theology embracing ideas of punishment within death. Following the trajectory of the case study, alternative understandings of death present in recent Christian theology and within Native American spirituality are presented in an attempt to find room for a fuller meaning of death post-reconciliation, but premortem.

  5. Prediction of thermo-physical properties of liquid formulated products

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mattei, Michele; Conte, Elisa; Kontogeorgis, Georgios

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this chapter is to give an overview of the models, methods and tools that may be used for the estimation of liquid formulated products. First a classification of the products is given and the thermo-physical properties needed to represent their functions are listed. For each...... property, a collection of the available models are presented according to the property type and the model type. It should be noted, however, that the property models considered or highlighted in this chapter are only examples and are not necessarily the best and most accurate for the corresponding property....

  6. Moderate extracellular acidification inhibits capsaicin-induced cell death through regulating calcium mobilization, NF-{kappa}B translocation and ROS production in synoviocytes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hu, Fen; Yang, Shuang; Zhao, Dan; Zhu, Shuyan; Wang, Yuxiang [Department of Biophysics, School of Physics and Key Laboratory of Bioactive Materials of Education Ministry, Nankai University, Tianjin 300071 (China); Li, Junying, E-mail: jyli04@nankai.edu.cn [Department of Biophysics, School of Physics and Key Laboratory of Bioactive Materials of Education Ministry, Nankai University, Tianjin 300071 (China)

    2012-07-20

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Moderate extracellular acidification regulates intracellular Ca{sup 2+} mobilization. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Moderate acidification activates NF-{kappa}B nuclear translocation in synoviocytes. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Moderate acidification depresses the ROS production induced by capsaicin. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Moderate acidification inhibits capsaicin-caused synoviocyte death. -- Abstract: We previously show the expression of transient receptor potential vanilloid 1 (TRPV1) in primary synoviocytes from collagen-induced arthritis (CIA) rats. Capsaicin and lowered extracellular pH from 7.4 to 5.5 induce cell death through TRPV1-mediated Ca{sup 2+} entry and reactive oxygen species (ROS) production. However, under the pathological condition in rheumatoid arthritis, the synovial fluid is acidified to a moderate level (about pH 6.8). In the present study, we examined the effects of pH 6.8 on the TRPV1-mediated cell death. Our finding is different or even opposite from what was observed at pH 5.5. We found that the moderate extracellular acidification (from pH 7.4 to 6.8) inhibited the capsaicin-induced Ca{sup 2+} entry through attenuating the activity of TRPV1. In the mean time, it triggered a phospholipse C (PLC)-related Ca{sup 2+} release from intracellular stores. The nuclear translocation of NF-{kappa}B was found at pH 6.8, and this also depends on PLC activation. Moreover, the capsaicin-evoked massive ROS production and cell death were depressed at pH 6.8, both of which are dependent on the activation of PLC and NF-{kappa}B. Taken together, these results suggested that the moderate extracellular acidification inhibited the capsaicin-induced synoviocyte death through regulating Ca{sup 2+} mobilization, activating NF-{kappa}B nuclear translocation and depressing ROS production.

  7. Moderate extracellular acidification inhibits capsaicin-induced cell death through regulating calcium mobilization, NF-κB translocation and ROS production in synoviocytes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu, Fen; Yang, Shuang; Zhao, Dan; Zhu, Shuyan; Wang, Yuxiang; Li, Junying

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► Moderate extracellular acidification regulates intracellular Ca 2+ mobilization. ► Moderate acidification activates NF-κB nuclear translocation in synoviocytes. ► Moderate acidification depresses the ROS production induced by capsaicin. ► Moderate acidification inhibits capsaicin-caused synoviocyte death. -- Abstract: We previously show the expression of transient receptor potential vanilloid 1 (TRPV1) in primary synoviocytes from collagen-induced arthritis (CIA) rats. Capsaicin and lowered extracellular pH from 7.4 to 5.5 induce cell death through TRPV1-mediated Ca 2+ entry and reactive oxygen species (ROS) production. However, under the pathological condition in rheumatoid arthritis, the synovial fluid is acidified to a moderate level (about pH 6.8). In the present study, we examined the effects of pH 6.8 on the TRPV1-mediated cell death. Our finding is different or even opposite from what was observed at pH 5.5. We found that the moderate extracellular acidification (from pH 7.4 to 6.8) inhibited the capsaicin-induced Ca 2+ entry through attenuating the activity of TRPV1. In the mean time, it triggered a phospholipse C (PLC)-related Ca 2+ release from intracellular stores. The nuclear translocation of NF-κB was found at pH 6.8, and this also depends on PLC activation. Moreover, the capsaicin-evoked massive ROS production and cell death were depressed at pH 6.8, both of which are dependent on the activation of PLC and NF-κB. Taken together, these results suggested that the moderate extracellular acidification inhibited the capsaicin-induced synoviocyte death through regulating Ca 2+ mobilization, activating NF-κB nuclear translocation and depressing ROS production.

  8. Empirical Model for Predicting Rate of Biogas Production | Adamu ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Rate of biogas production using cow manure as substrate was monitored in two laboratory scale batch reactors (13 liter and 108 liter capacities). Two empirical models based on the Gompertz and the modified logistic equations were used to fit the experimental data based on non-linear regression analysis using Solver tool ...

  9. Productive knowledge of collocations may predict academic literacy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Van Dyk, Tobie

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The present study examines the relationship between productive knowledge of collocations and academic literacy among first year students at North-West University. Participants were administered a collocation test, the items of which were selected from Nation’s (2006 word frequency bands, i.e. the 2000-word, 3000-word, 5000-word bands; and the Academic Word List (Coxhead, 2000. The scores from the collocation test were compared to those from the Test of Academic Literacy Levels (version administered in 2012. The results of this study indicate that, overall, knowledge of collocations is significantly correlated with academic literacy, which is also observed at each of the frequency bands from which the items were selected. These results support Nizonkiza’s (2014 findings that a significant correlation between mastery of collocations of words from the Academic Word List and academic literacy exists; which is extended here to words from other frequency bands. They also confirm previous findings that productive knowledge of collocations increases alongside overall proficiency (cf. Gitsaki, 1999; Bonk, 2001; Eyckmans et al., 2004; Boers et al., 2006; Nizonkiza, 2011; among others. This study therefore concludes that growth in productive knowledge of collocations may entail growth in academic literacy; suggesting that productive use of collocations is linked to academic literacy to a considerable extent. In light of these findings, teaching strategies aimed to assist first year students meet academic demands posed by higher education and avenues to explore for further research are discussed. Especially, we suggest adopting a productive oriented approach to teaching collocations, which we believe may prove useful.

  10. Validation of the 2014 European Society of Cardiology Sudden Cardiac Death Risk Prediction Model in Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy in a Reference Center in South America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández, Adrián; Quiroga, Alejandro; Ochoa, Juan Pablo; Mysuta, Mauricio; Casabé, José Horacio; Biagetti, Marcelo; Guevara, Eduardo; Favaloro, Liliana E; Fava, Agostina M; Galizio, Néstor

    2016-07-01

    Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is a common cause of death in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HC). Our aim was to conduct an external and independent validation in South America of the 2014 European Society of Cardiology (ESC) SCD risk prediction model to identify patients requiring an implantable cardioverter defibrillator. This study included 502 consecutive patients with HC followed from March, 1993 to December, 2014. A combined end point of SCD or appropriate implantable cardioverter defibrillator therapy was assessed. For the quantitative estimation of individual 5-year SCD risk, we used the formula: 1 - 0.998(exp(Prognostic index)). Our database also included the abnormal blood pressure response to exercise as a risk marker. We analyzed the 3 categories of 5-year risk proposed by the ESC: low risk (LR) validated in our population and represents an improvement compared with previous approaches. A larger multicenter, independent and external validation of the model with long-term follow-up would be advisable. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Redefining Death

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    The results of 20 years of research on brain death will be released to the public, the Chinese Ministry of Health reported in early April. A special ministry team has drafted the criteria for brain death in Criteria for the Diagnosis of Brain Death in Adults (Revised Edition) and Technical Specifications for the Diagnosis

  12. The ability of clinical and laboratory findings to predict in-hospital death in patients with thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura in an internal and emergency medicine department

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Filippo Pieralli

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura (TTP is a rare, life-threatening syndrome characterized by microangiopathic anemia, thrombocytopenia, diffuse microvascular thrombosis, and ischemia. It is associated with very low levels of ADAMTS-13. Measurement of ADAMTS-13 levels is used for diagnostic and prognostic purposes, but in every-day clinical practice, this type of analysis is not always readily available. In this retrospective study, we evaluated prognostic value of clinical and laboratory findings in patients with TTP. Materials and methods: We retrospectively investigated patients with clinically diagnosed TTP treated in a unit of Internal and Emergency Medicine (1996-2007. Clinical and laboratory findings were collected and analyzed in order to assess their ability to predict in-hospital death. Results: Twelve patients were identified (mean age 59 + 22 years; 58% were women. Five (42% died during the hospitalization, and the variables significantly associated with this outcome were: a delay between diagnosis and symptom onset (HR 1.36; 95% CI 1.04-1.78; p < 0.05; a higher severity score (HR 1.48; 95%CI 1,23-3.86; p < 0.05; hemodynamic instability with hypotension and/or shock (HR 3.35; 95%CI 3.02-9.26; p < 0.01; a higher schistocyte count on blood smear (HR 1.84; 95%CI 1.04-3.27; p < 0.05; and higher lactate values (HR 1.85; 95%CI 1.08- 3.16; p < 0.05. Conclusions: TTP is a rare and potentially fatal disease with protean manifestations. Delayed diagnosis after symptom onset is a major determinant of poor outcome. Hypotension and shock are also prognostically unfavourable. Laboratory evidence of cardiocirculatory compromise (i.e., elevated lactate levels and extension of the disease process (i.e., schistocyte count > 3 are predictive of in-hospital death, independently of the hemodynamic profile on admission.

  13. Evaluation of a gas in vitro system for predicting methane production in vivo

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Danielsson, Rebecca; Ramin, Mohammad; Bertilsson, Jan

    2017-01-01

    of samples can be incubated and analyzed at the same time. This study evaluated a recently developed in vitro method for prediction of in vivo CH4 production by examining the relationship between predicted and observed CH4 production values. A total of 49 different diets (observations), used in previous 13......Methane production from ruminant livestock varies with the diet as a result of factors such as dry matter intake, diet composition, and digestibility. To estimate the effect of dietary composition and feed additives, CH4 production can be measured in vitro as a first step because large numbers...... in vivo studies, were selected to include diets varying in nutrient composition. Methane production was measured in all in vivo studies by respiration chambers or the GreenFeed system (C-Lock Inc., Rapid City, SD). Overall, the in vitro system predicted CH4 production well (R2 = 0.96), but the values...

  14. Evaluation of Aqua crop Model to Predict Crop Water Productivity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohd Noor Hidayat Adenan; Faiz Ahmad; Shyful Azizi Abdul Rahman; Abdul Rahim Harun; Khairuddin Abdul Rahim

    2015-01-01

    Water and nutrient are critical inputs for crop production, especially in meeting challenges from increasing fertilizer cost and irregular water availability associated with climate change. The Land and Water Division of Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has developed Aqua Crop, an integrated application software to simulate the interactions between plant, water and soil. Field management and irrigation management are the factors that need to be considered since it affects the interactions. Four critical components are needed in the Aqua Crop model, viz. climate, crop, field management and soil conditions. In our case study, climate data from rice field in Utan Aji, Kangar, Perlis was applied to run a simulation by using AquaCrop model. The rice crop was also assessed against deficit irrigation schedules and we found that use of water at optimum level increased rice yield. Results derived from the use of the model corresponded conventional assessment. This model can be adopted to help farmers in Malaysia in planning crop and field management to increase the crop productivity, especially in areas where the water is limited. (author)

  15. ALV-J infection induces chicken monocyte death accompanied with the production of IL-1β and IL-18.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Manman; Feng, Min; Xie, Tingting; Li, Yuanfang; Ruan, Zhuohao; Shi, Meiqing; Liao, Ming; Zhang, Xiquan

    2017-11-21

    Immunosuppression induced by avian leukosis virus subgroup J (ALV-J) causes serious reproduction problems and secondary infections in chickens. Given that monocytes are important precursors of immune cells including macrophages and dendritic cells, we investigated the fate of chicken monocytes after ALV-J infection. Our results indicated that most monocytes infected with ALV-J including field or laboratory strains could not successfully differentiate into macrophages due to cells death. And cells death was dependent upon viral titer and accompanied with increased IL-1β and IL-18 mRNA levels. In addition, ALV-J infection up-regulated caspase-1 and caspase-3 activity in monocytes. Collectively, we found that ALV-J could cause cell death in chicken monocytes, especially pyroptosis, which may be a significant reason for ALV-J induced immunosuppression.

  16. Prediction of Hydrolysis Products of Organic Chemicals under Environmental pH Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheminformatics-based software tools can predict the molecular structure of transformation products using a library of transformation reaction schemes. This paper presents the development of such a library for abiotic hydrolysis of organic chemicals under environmentally relevant...

  17. Predicting the initial freezing point and water activity of meat products from composition data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sman, van der R.G.M.; Boer, E.P.J.

    2005-01-01

    In this paper we predict the water activity and initial freezing point of food products (meat and fish) based on their composition. The prediction is based on thermodynamics (the Clausius-Clapeyron equation, the Ross equation and an approximation of the Pitzer equation). Furthermore, we have taken

  18. Deep learning and data assimilation for real-time production prediction in natural gas wells

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Loh, K.K.L.; Shoeibi Omrani, P.S.; Linden, R.J.P. van der

    2018-01-01

    The prediction of the gas production from mature gas wells, due to their complex end-of-life behavior, is challenging and crucial for operational decision making. In this paper, we apply a modified deep LSTM model for prediction of the gas flow rates in mature gas wells, including the uncertainties

  19. Preliminary evaluation of the importance of existing hydraulic-head observation locations to advective-transport predictions, Death Valley regional flow system, California and Nevada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hill, M.C.; Ely, D.M.; Tiedeman, C.R.; O'Brien, G.M.; D'Agnese, F.A.; Faunt, C.C.

    2001-01-01

    When a model is calibrated by nonlinear regression, calculated diagnostic statistics and measures of uncertainty provide a wealth of information about many aspects of the system. This report presents a method of ranking the likely importance of existing observation locations using measures of prediction uncertainty. It is suggested that continued monitoring is warranted at more important locations, and unwarranted or less warranted at less important locations. The report develops the methodology and then demonstrates it using the hydraulic-head observation locations of a three-layer model of the Death Valley regional flow system (DVRFS). The predictions of interest are subsurface transport from beneath Yucca Mountain and 14 underground Test Area (UGTA) sites. The advective component of transport is considered because it is the component most affected by the system dynamics represented by the regional-scale model being used. The problem is addressed using the capabilities of the U.S. Geological Survey computer program MODFLOW-2000, with its ADVective-Travel Observation (ADV) Package, and an additional computer program developed for this work

  20. Protection of hypoglycemia-induced neuronal death by β-hydroxybutyrate involves the preservation of energy levels and decreased production of reactive oxygen species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Julio-Amilpas, Alberto; Montiel, Teresa; Soto-Tinoco, Eva; Gerónimo-Olvera, Cristian; Massieu, Lourdes

    2015-05-01

    Glucose is the main energy substrate in brain but in certain circumstances such as prolonged fasting and the suckling period alternative substrates can be used such as the ketone bodies (KB), beta-hydroxybutyrate (BHB), and acetoacetate. It has been shown that KB prevent neuronal death induced during energy limiting conditions and excitotoxicity. The protective effect of KB has been mainly attributed to the improvement of mitochondrial function. In the present study, we have investigated the protective effect of D-BHB against neuronal death induced by severe noncoma hypoglycemia in the rat in vivo and by glucose deprivation (GD) in cortical cultures. Results show that systemic administration of D-BHB reduces reactive oxygen species (ROS) production in distinct cortical areas and subregions of the hippocampus and efficiently prevents neuronal death in the cortex of hypoglycemic animals. In vitro results show that D-BHB stimulates ATP production and reduces ROS levels, while the nonphysiologic isomer of BHB, L-BHB, has no effect on energy production but reduces ROS levels. Data suggest that protection by BHB, not only results from its metabolic action but is also related to its capability to reduce ROS, rendering this KB as a suitable candidate for the treatment of ischemic and traumatic injury.

  1. A role for HVEM, but not lymphotoxin-beta receptor, in LIGHT-induced tumor cell death and chemokine production

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pasero, Christine; Barbarat, Bernadette; Just-Landi, Sylvaine; Bernard, Alain; Aurran-Schleinitz, Thérèse; Rey, Jérome; Eldering, Eric; Truneh, Alemsedeg; Costello, Régis T.; Olive, Daniel

    2009-01-01

    The TNF member LIGHT also known as TL4 or TNFSF14) can play a major role in cancer control via its two receptors; it induces tumor cell death through lymphotoxin-P receptor (LT-beta R) and ligation to the herpes virus entry mediator (HVEM) amplifies the immune response. By studying the effect of

  2. Rutile nanopowders for pigment production: Formation mechanism and particle size prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wu; Tang, Hongxin

    2018-01-01

    Formation mechanism and particle size prediction of rutile nanoparticles for pigment production were investigated. Anatase nanoparticles were observed by oriented attachment with parallel lattice fringe spaces of 0.2419 nm. Upon increasing the calcination temperature, the (1 1 0) plane of rutile was gradually observed, suggesting that the anatase (1 0 3) planes undergo internal structural rearrangement of oxygen and titanium ions into rutile phase due to ionic diffusion. Backpropagation neural network was used to predict particle size of rutile nanopowders, the prediction errors were all smaller than 2%, providing an efficient method to control particle size in pigment production.

  3. Use of left ventricular ejection fraction or wall-motion score index in predicting arrhythmic death in patients following an acute myocardial infarction. The TRACE Study Group

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Køber, L; Torp-Pedersen, C; Elming, H

    1997-01-01

    on the correlation between arrhythmic death and "sudden unexpected death" defined as death within 1 hour of onset of new symptoms. Assessment of late potentials, heart rate variability (HRV), T wave alternans, arrhythmias seen on Holter monitoring or during exercise testing, electrophysiological testing...

  4. Prediction of sand production onset in petroleum reservoirs using a reliable classification approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farhad Gharagheizi

    2017-06-01

    It is shown that the developed model can accurately predict the sand production in a real field. The results of this study indicates that implementation of LSSVM modeling can effectively help completion designers to make an on time sand control plan with least deterioration of production.

  5. Model for the evaluation and prediction of production rate of sinter ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A model has been derived for evaluation and prediction of production rate of sinter machine operating on vertical mode. The quadratic model expressed as: P = 0.4395 V – 0.0526 V2 + 0.54, showed that the production rate of the sinter machine was dependent on the vertical sintering height. The maximum deviation of the ...

  6. Prediction of enteric methane production, yield, and intensity in dairy cattle using an intercontinental database

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Niu, Mutian; Kebreab, Ermias; Hristov, Alexander N

    2018-01-01

    data from animals under different management systems worldwide. The objectives of this study were to (1) collate a global database of enteric CH4production from individual lactating dairy cattle; (2) determine the availability of key variables for predicting enteric CH4production (g/day per cow), yield...

  7. Fluvial facies reservoir productivity prediction method based on principal component analysis and artificial neural network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pengyu Gao

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available It is difficult to forecast the well productivity because of the complexity of vertical and horizontal developments in fluvial facies reservoir. This paper proposes a method based on Principal Component Analysis and Artificial Neural Network to predict well productivity of fluvial facies reservoir. The method summarizes the statistical reservoir factors and engineering factors that affect the well productivity, extracts information by applying the principal component analysis method and approximates arbitrary functions of the neural network to realize an accurate and efficient prediction on the fluvial facies reservoir well productivity. This method provides an effective way for forecasting the productivity of fluvial facies reservoir which is affected by multi-factors and complex mechanism. The study result shows that this method is a practical, effective, accurate and indirect productivity forecast method and is suitable for field application.

  8. Predicted versus observed cosmic-ray-produced noble gases in lunar samples: improved Kr production ratios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Regnier, S.; Hohenberg, C.M.; Marti, K.; Reedy, R.C.

    1979-01-01

    New sets of cross sections for the production of krypton isotopes from targets of Rb, Sr, Y, and Zr were constructed primarily on the bases of experimental excitation functions for Kr production from Y. These cross sections were used to calculate galactic-cosmic-ray and solar-proton production rates for Kr isotopes in the moon. Spallation Kr data obtained from ilmenite separates of rocks 10017 and 10047 are reported. Production rates and isotopic ratios for cosmogenic Kr observed in ten well-documented lunar samples and in ilmenite separates and bulk samples from several lunar rocks with long but unknown irradiation histories were compared with predicted rates and ratios. The agreements were generally quite good. Erosion of rock surfaces affected rates or ratios for only near-surface samples, where solar-proton production is important. There were considerable spreads in predicted-to-observed production rates of 83 Kr, due at least in part to uncertainties in chemical abundances. The 78 Kr/ 83 Kr ratios were predicted quite well for samples with a wide range of Zr/Sr abundance ratios. The calculated 80 Kr/ 83 Kr ratios were greater than the observed ratios when production by the 79 Br(n,γ) reaction was included, but were slightly undercalculated if the Br reaction was omitted; these results suggest that Br(n,γ)-produced Kr is not retained well by lunar rocks. The productions of 81 Kr and 82 Kr were overcalculated by approximately 10% relative to 83 Kr. Predicted-to-observed 84 Kr/ 83 ratios scattered considerably, possibly because of uncertainties in corrections for trapped and fission components and in cross sections for 84 Kr production. Most predicted 84 Kr and 86 Kr production rates were lower than observed. Shielding depths of several Apollo 11 rocks were determined from the measured 78 Kr/ 83 Kr ratios of ilmenite separates. 4 figures, 5 tables

  9. Utilizing artificial neural networks to predict demand for weather-sensitive products at retail stores

    OpenAIRE

    Taghizadeh, Elham

    2017-01-01

    One key requirement for effective supply chain management is the quality of its inventory management. Various inventory management methods are typically employed for different types of products based on their demand patterns, product attributes, and supply network. In this paper, our goal is to develop robust demand prediction methods for weather sensitive products at retail stores. We employ historical datasets from Walmart, whose customers and markets are often exposed to extreme weather ev...

  10. Hemolysis is associated with low reticulocyte production index and predicts blood transfusion in severe malarial anemia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rolf Fendel

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Falciparum Malaria, an infectious disease caused by the apicomplexan parasite Plasmodium falciparum, is among the leading causes of death and morbidity attributable to infectious diseases worldwide. In Gabon, Central Africa, one out of four inpatients have severe malarial anemia (SMA, a life-threatening complication if left untreated. Emerging drug resistant parasites might aggravate the situation. This case control study investigates biomarkers of enhanced hemolysis in hospitalized children with either SMA or mild malaria (MM. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Ninety-one children were included, thereof 39 SMA patients. Strict inclusion criteria were chosen to exclude other causes of anemia. At diagnosis, erythrophagocytosis (a direct marker for extravascular hemolysis, EVH was enhanced in SMA compared to MM patients (5.0 arbitrary units (AU (interquartile range (IR: 2.2-9.6 vs. 2.1 AU (IR: 1.3-3.9, p<0.01. Furthermore, indirect markers for EVH, (i.e. serum neopterin levels, spleen size enlargement and monocyte pigment were significantly increased in SMA patients. Markers for erythrocyte ageing, such as CD35 (complement receptor 1, CD55 (decay acceleration factor and phosphatidylserine exposure (annexin-V-binding were investigated by flow cytometry. In SMA patients, levels of CD35 and CD55 on the red blood cell surface were decreased and erythrocyte removal markers were increased when compared to MM or reconvalescent patients. Additionally, intravascular hemolysis (IVH was quantified using several indirect markers (LDH, alpha-HBDH, haptoglobin and hemopexin, which all showed elevated IVH in SMA. The presence of both IVH and EVH predicted the need for blood transfusion during antimalarial treatment (odds ratio 61.5, 95% confidence interval (CI: 8.9-427. Interestingly, this subpopulation is characterized by a significantly lowered reticulocyte production index (RPI, p<0.05. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show the multifactorial pathophysiology of SMA

  11. Validation of the 2014 European Society of Cardiology guidelines risk prediction model for the primary prevention of sudden cardiac death in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vriesendorp, Pieter A; Schinkel, Arend F L; Liebregts, Max; Theuns, Dominic A M J; van Cleemput, Johan; Ten Cate, Folkert J; Willems, Rik; Michels, Michelle

    2015-08-01

    The recently released 2014 European Society of Cardiology guidelines of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) use a new clinical risk prediction model for sudden cardiac death (SCD), based on the HCM Risk-SCD study. Our study is the first external and independent validation of this new risk prediction model. The study population consisted of a consecutive cohort of 706 patients with HCM without prior SCD event, from 2 tertiary referral centers. The primary end point was a composite of SCD and appropriate implantable cardioverter-defibrillator therapy, identical to the HCM Risk-SCD end point. The 5-year SCD risk was calculated using the HCM Risk-SCD formula. Receiver operating characteristic curves and C-statistics were calculated for the 2014 European Society of Cardiology guidelines, and risk stratification methods of the 2003 American College of Cardiology/European Society of Cardiology guidelines and 2011 American College of Cardiology Foundation/American Heart Association guidelines. During follow-up of 7.7±5.3 years, SCD occurred in 42 (5.9%) of 706 patients (ages 49±16 years; 34% women). The C-statistic of the new model was 0.69 (95% CI, 0.57-0.82; P=0.008), which performed significantly better than the conventional risk factor models based on the 2003 guidelines (C-statistic of 0.55: 95% CI, 0.47-0.63; P=0.3), and 2011 guidelines (C-statistic of 0.60: 95% CI, 0.50-0.70; P=0.07). The HCM Risk-SCD model improves the risk stratification of patients with HCM for primary prevention of SCD, and calculating an individual risk estimate contributes to the clinical decision-making process. Improved risk stratification is important for the decision making before implantable cardioverter-defibrillator implantation for the primary prevention of SCD. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

  12. A prediction model to forecast the cost impact from a break in the production schedule

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delionback, L. M.

    1977-01-01

    The losses which are experienced after a break or stoppage in sequence of a production cycle portends an extremely complex situation and involves numerous variables, some of uncertain quantity and quality. There are no discrete formulas to define the losses during a gap in production. The techniques which are employed are therefore related to a prediction or forecast of the losses that take place, based on the conditions which exist in the production environment. Such parameters as learning curve slope, number of predecessor units, and length of time the production sequence is halted are utilized in formulating a prediction model. The pertinent current publications related to this subject are few in number, but are reviewed to provide an understanding of the problem. Example problems are illustrated together with appropriate trend curves to show the approach. Solved problems are also given to show the application of the models to actual cases or production breaks in the real world.

  13. DATA MINING METHODOLOGY FOR DETERMINING THE OPTIMAL MODEL OF COST PREDICTION IN SHIP INTERIM PRODUCT ASSEMBLY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Damir Kolich

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In order to accurately predict costs of the thousands of interim products that are assembled in shipyards, it is necessary to use skilled engineers to develop detailed Gantt charts for each interim product separately which takes many hours. It is helpful to develop a prediction tool to estimate the cost of interim products accurately and quickly without the need for skilled engineers. This will drive down shipyard costs and improve competitiveness. Data mining is used extensively for developing prediction models in other industries. Since ships consist of thousands of interim products, it is logical to develop a data mining methodology for a shipyard or any other manufacturing industry where interim products are produced. The methodology involves analysis of existing interim products and data collection. Pre-processing and principal component analysis is done to make the data “user-friendly” for later prediction processing and the development of both accurate and robust models. The support vector machine is demonstrated as the better model when there are a lower number of tuples. However as the number of tuples is increased to over 10000, then the artificial neural network model is recommended.

  14. A Predictive Model of Multi-Stage Production Planning for Fixed Time Orders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kozłowski Edward

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The traditional production planning model based upon a deterministic approach is well described in the literature. Due to the uncertain nature of manufacturing processes, such model can however incorrectly represent actual situations on the shop floor. This study develops a mathematical modeling framework for generating production plans in a multistage manufacturing process. The devised model takes into account the stochastic model for predicting the occurrence of faulty products. The aim of the control model is to determine the number of products which should be manufactured in each planning period to minimize both manufacturing costs and potential financial penalties for failing to fulfill the order completely.

  15. Prediction and optimisation of Pb/Zn/Fe sulphide scales in gas production fields

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dyer, Sarah; Orski, Karine; Menezes, Carlos; Heath, Steve; MacPherson, Calum; Simpson, Caroline; Graham, Gordon

    2006-03-15

    Lead, zinc and iron sulphide scales are known to be a particular issue with gas production fields, particularly those producing from HP/HT reservoirs. However the prediction of sulphide scale and the methodologies available for their laboratory assessment are not as well developed as those for the more conventional sulphate and carbonate scales. This work examines a particular sulphide scaling regime from a North Sea high temperature gas condensate production field containing only 0.8ppm of sulphide ions. Sulphide scales were identified in the production system which was shown to be a mixture of lead and zinc sulphide, primarily lead sulphide. This formed as a result of cooling during production resulting in the over saturation of these minerals. This paper describes scale prediction and modified laboratory test protocols used to re-create the scales formed in the field prior to chemical performance testing. From the brine composition, scale prediction identified that the major scales that could be formed were calcium carbonate, iron carbonate, iron sulphide, lead sulphide and zinc sulphide. In addition, modification of the brine compositions led to prediction of primarily one scale or the other. Given the predicted over saturation of various minerals, preliminary laboratory tests were therefore conducted in order to ensure that the scale formed under laboratory conditions was representative of the field scale. Laboratory protocols were therefore developed to ensure that the scales formed in fully anaerobic dynamic performance tests and static performance tests were similar to those encountered in the field. The paper compares results from field analysis, scale predictions and laboratory scale formation tests using newly developed test protocols and shows differences between prediction and laboratory data. The paper therefore demonstrates the importance of ensuring that the correct scale is formed under laboratory test conditions and also indicates some potential

  16. Predicted and verified deviations from Zipf's law in ecology of competing products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hisano, Ryohei; Sornette, Didier; Mizuno, Takayuki

    2011-08-01

    Zipf's power-law distribution is a generic empirical statistical regularity found in many complex systems. However, rather than universality with a single power-law exponent (equal to 1 for Zipf's law), there are many reported deviations that remain unexplained. A recently developed theory finds that the interplay between (i) one of the most universal ingredients, namely stochastic proportional growth, and (ii) birth and death processes, leads to a generic power-law distribution with an exponent that depends on the characteristics of each ingredient. Here, we report the first complete empirical test of the theory and its application, based on the empirical analysis of the dynamics of market shares in the product market. We estimate directly the average growth rate of market shares and its standard deviation, the birth rates and the "death" (hazard) rate of products. We find that temporal variations and product differences of the observed power-law exponents can be fully captured by the theory with no adjustable parameters. Our results can be generalized to many systems for which the statistical properties revealed by power-law exponents are directly linked to the underlying generating mechanism.

  17. High Glucose-Induced PC12 Cell Death by Increasing Glutamate Production and Decreasing Methyl Group Metabolism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minjiang Chen

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. High glucose- (HG- induced neuronal cell death is responsible for the development of diabetic neuropathy. However, the effect of HG on metabolism in neuronal cells is still unclear. Materials and Methods. The neural-crest derived PC12 cells were cultured for 72 h in the HG (75 mM or control (25 mM groups. We used NMR-based metabolomics to examine both intracellular and extracellular metabolic changes in HG-treated PC12 cells. Results. We found that the reduction in intracellular lactate may be due to excreting more lactate into the extracellular medium under HG condition. HG also induced the changes of other energy-related metabolites, such as an increased succinate and creatine phosphate. Our results also reveal that the synthesis of glutamate from the branched-chain amino acids (isoleucine and valine may be enhanced under HG. Increased levels of intracellular alanine, phenylalanine, myoinositol, and choline were observed in HG-treated PC12 cells. In addition, HG-induced decreases in intracellular dimethylamine, dimethylglycine, and 3-methylhistidine may indicate a downregulation of methyl group metabolism. Conclusions. Our metabolomic results suggest that HG-induced neuronal cell death may be attributed to a series of metabolic changes, involving energy metabolism, amino acids metabolism, osmoregulation and membrane metabolism, and methyl group metabolism.

  18. Older Age Predicts Decreased Metastasis and Prostate Cancer-Specific Death for Men Treated With Radiation Therapy: Meta-Analysis of Radiation Therapy Oncology Group Trials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamstra, Daniel A., E-mail: dhamm@umich.edu [University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States); Bae, Kyounghwa [Radiation Therapy Oncology Group, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Pilepich, Miljenko V. [UCLA Medical Center, Los Angeles, California (United States); Hanks, Gerald E. [Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Grignon, David J. [Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis, Indiana (United States); McGowan, David G. [Cross Cancer Institute, Edmonton, Alberta (Canada); Roach, Mack [UCSF, San Francisco, California (United States); Lawton, Colleen [Medical College of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, Wisconsin (United States); Lee, R. Jeffrey [Intermountain Medical Center, Salt Lake City, Utah (United States); Sandler, Howard [Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles, California (United States)

    2011-12-01

    Purpose: The impact of age on prostate cancer (PCa) outcome has been controversial; therefore, we analyzed the effect of age on overall survival (OS), distant metastasis, prostate cancer-specific death (PCSD), and nonprostate cancer death (NPCD) on patients with locally advanced PCa. Methods and Materials: Patients who participated in four Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG) phase III trials, 8531, 8610, 9202, and 9413, were studied. Cox proportional hazards regression was used for OS analysis, and cumulative events analysis with Fine and Gray's regression was used for analyses of metastasis, PCSD, and NPCD. Results: Median follow-up of 4,128 patients with median age of 70 (range, 43-88 years) was 7.3 years. Most patients had high-risk disease: cT3 to cT4 (54%) and Gleason scores (GS) of 7 (45%) and 8 to 10 (27%). Older age ({<=}70 vs. >70 years) predicted for decreased OS (10-year rate, 55% vs. 41%, respectively; p < 0.0001) and increased NPCD (10-year rate, 28% vs. 46%, respectively; p < 0.0001) but decreased metastasis (10-year rate, 27% vs. 20%, respectively; p < 0.0001) and PCSD (10-year rate, 18% vs. 14%, respectively; p < 0.0001). To account for competing risks, outcomes were analyzed in 2-year intervals, and age-dependent differences in metastasis and PCSD persisted, even in the earliest time periods. When adjusted for other covariates, an age of >70 years remained associated with decreased OS (hazard ratio [HR], 1.56 [95% confidence interval [CI], 1.43-1.70] p < 0.0001) but with decreased metastasis (HR, 0.72 [95% CI, 0.63-0.83] p < 0.0001) and PCSD (HR, 0.78 [95% CI, 0.66-0.92] p < 0.0001). Finally, the impact of the duration of androgen deprivation therapy as a function of age was evaluated. Conclusions: These data support less aggressive PCa in older men, independent of other clinical features. While the biological underpinning of this finding remains unknown, stratification by age in future trials appears to be warranted.

  19. Induction of reactive oxygen intermediates-dependent programmed cell death in human malignant ex vivo glioma cells and inhibition of the vascular endothelial growth factor production by taurolidine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodak, Roksana; Kubota, Hisashi; Ishihara, Hideyuki; Eugster, Hans-Pietro; Könü, Dilek; Möhler, Hanns; Yonekawa, Yasuhiro; Frei, Karl

    2005-06-01

    Taurolidine, a derivative of the amino acid taurin, was recently found to display a potent antineoplastic effect both in vitro and in vivo. The authors therefore initiated studies to assess the potential antineoplastic activity of taurolidine in human glioma cell lines and in ex vivo malignant cell cultures. They also studied the mechanisms that induce cell death and the impact of taurolidine on tumor-derived vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) production. Cytotoxicity and clonogenic assays were performed using crystal violet staining. In the cytotoxicity assay 100% of glioma cell lines (eight of eight) and 74% of ex vivo glioma cultures (14 of 19) demonstrated sensitivity to taurolidine, with a mean median effective concentration (EC50) of 51 +/- 28 microg/ml and 56 +/- 23 microg/ml, respectively. Colony formation was inhibited by taurolidine, with a mean EC50 of 7 +/- 3 microg/ml for the cell lines and a mean EC50 of 3.5 +/- 1.7 microg/ml for the ex vivo glioma cultures. On observing this high activity of taurolidine in both assays, the authors decided to evaluate its cell death mechanisms. Fragmentation of DNA, externalization of phosphatidylserine, activation of poly(adenosine diphosphate-ribose) polymerase, loss of the mitochondrial membrane potential followed by a release of apoptosis-inducing factor, and typical apoptotic features were found after taurolidine treatment. Cell death was preceded by the generation of reactive O2 intermediates, which was abrogated by N-acetylcysteine but not by benzyloxycarbonyl-Val-Ala-Asp-fluoromethylketone. Moreover, taurolidine also induced suppression of VEGF production on the protein and messenger RNA level, as shown by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction. Given all these findings, taurolidine may be a promising new agent in the treatment of malignant gliomas; it displays a combination of antineoplastic and antiangiogenic activities, inducing tumor cell

  20. Chemokine CCL2–CCR2 Signaling Induces Neuronal Cell Death via STAT3 Activation and IL-1β Production after Status Epilepticus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Dai-Shi; Feng, Li-Jie; Liu, Jun-Li

    2017-01-01

    Elevated levels of chemokine C-C motif ligand 2 (CCL2) and its receptor CCR2 have been reported in patients with temporal lobe epilepsy and in experimental seizures. However, the functional significance and molecular mechanism underlying CCL2–CCR2 signaling in epileptic brain remains largely unknown. In this study, we found that the upregulated CCL2 was mainly expressed in hippocampal neurons and activated microglia from mice 1 d after kainic acid (KA)-induced seizures. Taking advantage of CX3CR1GFP/+:CCR2RFP/+ double-transgenic mice, we demonstrated that CCL2–CCR2 signaling has a role in resident microglial activation and blood-derived monocyte infiltration. Moreover, seizure-induced degeneration of neurons in the hippocampal CA3 region was attenuated in mice lacking CCL2 or CCR2. We further showed that CCR2 activation induced STAT3 (signal transducer and activator of transcription 3) phosphorylation and IL-1β production, which are critical for promoting neuronal cell death after status epilepticus. Consistently, pharmacological inhibition of STAT3 by WP1066 reduced seizure-induced IL-1β production and subsequent neuronal death. Two weeks after KA-induced seizures, CCR2 deficiency not only reduced neuronal loss, but also attenuated seizure-induced behavioral impairments, including anxiety, memory decline, and recurrent seizure severity. Together, we demonstrated that CCL2–CCR2 signaling contributes to neurodegeneration via STAT3 activation and IL-1β production after status epilepticus, providing potential therapeutic targets for the treatment of epilepsy. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Epilepsy is a global concern and epileptic seizures occur in many neurological conditions. Neuroinflammation associated with microglial activation and monocyte infiltration are characteristic of epileptic brains. However, molecular mechanisms underlying neuroinflammation in neuronal death following epilepsy remain to be elucidated. Here we demonstrate that CCL2–CCR2 signaling is

  1. An integrated prediction and optimization model of biogas production system at a wastewater treatment facility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akbaş, Halil; Bilgen, Bilge; Turhan, Aykut Melih

    2015-11-01

    This study proposes an integrated prediction and optimization model by using multi-layer perceptron neural network and particle swarm optimization techniques. Three different objective functions are formulated. The first one is the maximization of methane percentage with single output. The second one is the maximization of biogas production with single output. The last one is the maximization of biogas quality and biogas production with two outputs. Methane percentage, carbon dioxide percentage, and other contents' percentage are used as the biogas quality criteria. Based on the formulated models and data from a wastewater treatment facility, optimal values of input variables and their corresponding maximum output values are found out for each model. It is expected that the application of the integrated prediction and optimization models increases the biogas production and biogas quality, and contributes to the quantity of electricity production at the wastewater treatment facility. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Analyze of Predictive Model of Innovation Management in Processing and Complementary Industries of Livestock Products

    OpenAIRE

    Ahmad Reza Ommani

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study was designing predictive model for innovation management in processing and complementary industries of livestock products. The method of research was correlative descriptive. The population of this research was managers in processing and complementary industries of livestock products of Khouzestan Province (N=486). By stratified random sampling, a random sample (n=125) was selected for participation in the study. A questionnaire was developed to ...

  3. Using Unsupervised Machine Learning for Outlier Detection in Data to Improve Wind Power Production Prediction

    OpenAIRE

    Åkerberg, Ludvig

    2017-01-01

    The expansion of wind power for electrical energy production has increased in recent years and shows no signs of slowing down. This unpredictable source of energy has contributed to destabilization of the electrical grid causing the energy market prices to vary significantly on a daily basis. For energy producers and consumers to make good investments, methods have been developed to make predictions of wind power production. These methods are often based on machine learning were historical we...

  4. A Reduced Order Model for Fast Production Prediction from an Oil Reservoir with a Gas Cap

    OpenAIRE

    Yang, Yichen

    2016-01-01

    Master's thesis in Petroleum geosciences engineering Economic evaluations are essential inputs for oil and gas field development decisions. These evaluations are critically dependent on the unbiased assessment of uncertainty in the future oil and gas production from wells. However, many production prediction techniques come at significant computational costs as they often require a very large number of highly detailed grid based reservoir simulations. In this study, we present an alter...

  5. Can Intoxication Status Be Used as a Prediction Tool for Manner of Death?: A Comparison of the Intoxication Status in Violent Suicides and Homicides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina, D Kimberley; Hargrove, Veronica M

    2017-03-01

    Determining the manner of death in medicolegal death investigations can be difficult. The investigator relies on many facets of death investigation, including the circumstances of death and autopsy examination. A study was designed to analyze whether the intoxication status of the decedent could be used as another tool in death investigations. The intoxication status of violent (nonoverdose or poisoning) suicides and homicides was retrospectively reviewed and compared. A total of 625 deaths were identified, including 366 suicides and 259 homicides. Age, sex, cause of death, and intoxication status, including the specific drugs present, were analyzed. Gunshot wounds were the most common cause of death in both groups, with hanging being the second most common cause in suicides and sharp force injuries in homicides. Analysis found that although the overall intoxication status for suicides versus homicides did not differ significantly, certain drugs were more prevalent in one group over the other. Specifically, illicit drugs, that is, heroin, cocaine, and methamphetamine, were more likely to be present in homicides, whereas antidepressants or antipsychotics, benzodiazepines, and zolpidem were more common in suicides.

  6. Advanced in-production hotspot prediction and monitoring with micro-topography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fanton, P.; Hasan, T.; Lakcher, A.; Le-Gratiet, B.; Prentice, C.; Simiz, J.-G.; La Greca, R.; Depre, L.; Hunsche, S.

    2017-03-01

    At 28nm technology node and below, hot spot prediction and process window control across production wafers have become increasingly critical to prevent hotspots from becoming yield-limiting defects. We previously established proof of concept for a systematic approach to identify the most critical pattern locations, i.e. hotspots, in a reticle layout by computational lithography and combining process window characteristics of these patterns with across-wafer process variation data to predict where hotspots may become yield impacting defects [1,2]. The current paper establishes the impact of micro-topography on a 28nm metal layer, and its correlation with hotspot best focus variations across a production chip layout. Detailed topography measurements are obtained from an offline tool, and pattern-dependent best focus (BF) shifts are determined from litho simulations that include mask-3D effects. We also establish hotspot metrology and defect verification by SEM image contour extraction and contour analysis. This enables detection of catastrophic defects as well as quantitative characterization of pattern variability, i.e. local and global CD uniformity, across a wafer to establish hotspot defect and variability maps. Finally, we combine defect prediction and verification capabilities for process monitoring by on-product, guided hotspot metrology, i.e. with sampling locations being determined from the defect prediction model and achieved prediction accuracy (capture rate) around 75%

  7. NNLOPS accurate predictions for $W^+W^-$ production arXiv

    CERN Document Server

    Re, Emanuele; Zanderighi, Giulia

    We present novel predictions for the production of $W^+W^-$ pairs in hadron collisions that are next-to-next-to-leading order accurate and consistently matched to a parton shower (NNLOPS). All diagrams that lead to the process $pp\\to e^- \\bar \

  8. Prediction of small hydropower plant power production in Himreen Lake dam (HLD using artificial neural network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Thaeer Hammid

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available In developing countries, the power production is properly less than the request of power or load, and sustaining a system stability of power production is a trouble quietly. Sometimes, there is a necessary development to the correct quantity of load demand to retain a system of power production steadily. Thus, Small Hydropower Plant (SHP includes a Kaplan turbine was verified to explore its applicability. This paper concentrates on applying on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs by approaching of Feed-Forward, Back-Propagation to make performance predictions of the hydropower plant at the Himreen lake dam-Diyala in terms of net turbine head, flow rate of water and power production that data gathered during a research over a 10 year period. The model studies the uncertainties of inputs and output operation and there's a designing to network structure and then trained by means of the entire of 3570 experimental and observed data. Furthermore, ANN offers an analyzing and diagnosing instrument effectively to model performance of the nonlinear plant. The study suggests that the ANN may predict the performance of the plant with a correlation coefficient (R between the variables of predicted and observed output that would be higher than 0.96. Keywords: Himreen Lake Dam, Small Hydropower plants, Artificial Neural Networks, Feed forward-back propagation model, Generation system's prediction

  9. Predictive modelling of migration from packaging materials into food products for regulatory purposes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Helmroth, E.; Rijk, R.; Dekker, M.; Jongen, W.

    2002-01-01

    Migration of low-molecular weight compounds is one of the most important problems of packaging plastics and other plastics intended to come into contact with food products. Since migration experiments are time consuming and expensive, predictive modelling has been introduced as a promising

  10. Thermic model to predict biogas production in unheated fixed-dome digesters buried in the ground

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Terradas-Ill, Georgina; Cuong, Pham Hung; Triolo, Jin Mi

    2014-01-01

    buried in the soil to study heat transfer between biogas digester and its surroundings. The predicted temperatures in the dome, biogas and slurry inside the digester and the resulting biogas production are presented and validated. The model was well able to estimate digester temperature (linear slope...

  11. Importance of Foliar Nitrogen Concentration to Predict Forest Productivity in the Mid-Atlantic Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yude Pan; John Hom; Jennifer Jenkins; Richard Birdsey

    2004-01-01

    To assess what difference it might make to include spatially defined estimates of foliar nitrogen in the regional application of a forest ecosystem model (PnET-II), we composed model predictions of wood production from extensive ground-based forest inventory analysis data across the Mid-Atlantic region. Spatial variation in foliar N concentration was assigned based on...

  12. Comparison of fission product release predictions using PARFUME with results from the AGR-1 irradiation experiment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Collin, Blaise P.; Petti, David A.; Demkowicz, Paul A.; Maki, John T.

    2014-01-01

    The PARFUME (PARticle FUel ModEl) code was used to predict fission product release from tristructural isotropic (TRISO) coated fuel particles and compacts during the first irradiation experiment (AGR-1) of the Advanced Gas Reactor Fuel Development and Qualification program. The PARFUME model for the AGR-1 experiment used the fuel compact volume average temperature for each of the 620 days of irradiation to calculate the release of fission products silver, cesium, and strontium from a representative particle for a select number of AGR-1 compacts. Post-irradiation examination (PIE) measurements provided data on release of fission products from fuel compacts and fuel particles, and retention of fission products in the compacts outside of the silicon carbide (SiC) layer. PARFUME-predicted fractional release of these fission products was determined and compared to the PIE measurements. Results show an overall over-prediction of the fractional release of cesium by PARFUME. For particles with failed SiC layers, the over-prediction is by a factor of about two, corresponding to an over-estimation of the diffusivity in uranium oxycarbide (UCO) by a factor of about 100. For intact particles, whose release is much lower, the over-prediction is by an average of about an order of magnitude, which could additionally be attributed to an over-estimated diffusivity in SiC by about 30%. The release of strontium from intact particles is also over-estimated by PARFUME, which also points towards an over-estimated diffusivity of strontium in either SiC or UCO, or possibly both. The measured strontium fractional release from intact particles varied considerably from compact to compact, making it difficult to assess the effective over-estimation of the diffusivities. Furthermore, the release of strontium from particles with failed SiC is difficult to observe experimentally due to the release from intact particles, preventing any conclusions to be made on the accuracy or validity of the

  13. Use of a MS-electronic nose for prediction of early fungal spoilage of bakery products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marín, S; Vinaixa, M; Brezmes, J; Llobet, E; Vilanova, X; Correig, X; Ramos, A J; Sanchis, V

    2007-02-28

    A MS-based electronic nose was used to detect fungal spoilage (measured as ergosterol concentration) in samples of bakery products. Bakery products were inoculated with different Eurotium, Aspergillus and Penicillium species, incubated in sealed vials and their headspace sampled after 2, 4 and 7 days. Once the headspace was sampled, ergosterol content was determined in each sample. Different electronic nose signals were recorded depending on incubation time. Both the e-nose signals and ergosterol levels were used to build models for prediction of ergosterol content using e-nose measurements. Accuracy on prediction of those models was between 87 and 96%, except for samples inoculated with Penicillium corylophilum where the best predictions only reached 46%.

  14. Expression of death-related genes and reactive oxygen species production in Skeletonema tropicum upon exposure to the polyunsaturated aldehyde octadienal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandra A. Gallina

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The effects of 4E/Z-octadienal (OCTA on ScDSP-1 and ScDSP-2 gene expression and reactive oxygen species (ROS production were investigated in the marine diatom Skeletonema tropicum (formerly costatum using qRTPCR and flow cytometry. ScDSP-1 and ScDSP-2 genes have been previously shown to be involved in cell death in ageing cells and in response to photosynthetic stress. OCTA induced a differential, concentration-dependent DSP gene expression associated to ROS production, 821.6 and 97.7 folds higher for ScDSP-1 and ScDSP-2, respectively. Among the concentrations tested, only 8 μM OCTA, which caused a reduction of 50% in cell concentrations at 24 h, was able to elicit an expression pattern consistent with a signalling role. Interestingly, only intermediate levels of reactive oxygen species (ROS (i.e., 1.5±0.1 increase were observed to be elicited by such concentration. These results suggest that ROS are key components of the molecular cascade triggered by polyunsaturated aldehydes (PUA and leading to cell death. This could have implications for bloom final stages at sea, where PUA may act as effectors of diatom population dynamics through ROS acting as modulators.

  15. Sudden Cardiac Death

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Risgaard, Bjarke; Winkel, Bo Gregers; Jabbari, Reza

    2017-01-01

    Objectives This study sought to describe the use of pharmacotherapy in a nationwide cohort of young patients with sudden cardiac death (SCD). Background Several drugs have been associated with an increased risk of SCD and sudden arrhythmic death syndrome (SADS). It remains unclear how...... pharmacotherapy may contribute to the overall burden of SCD in the general population. Methods This was a nationwide study that included all deaths that occurred between 2000 and 2009 and between 2007 and 2009 in people age 1 to 35 years and 36 to 49 years, respectively. Two physicians identified all SCDs through...... review of death certificates. Autopsy reports were collected. Pharmacotherapy prescribed within 90 days before SCD was identified in the Danish Registry of Medicinal Product Statistics. Results We identified 1,363 SCDs; median age was 38 years (interquartile range: 29 to 45 years), and 72% (n = 975) were men...

  16. Applying the theory of planned behavior to predict dairy product consumption by older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Kyungwon; Reicks, Marla; Sjoberg, Sara

    2003-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to explain intention to consume dairy products and consumption of dairy products by older adults using the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB). The factors examined were attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control. A cross-sectional questionnaire was administered. Community centers with congregate dining programs, group classes, and recreational events for older adults. One hundred and sixty-two older adults (mean age 75 years) completed the questionnaire. Subjects were mostly women (76%) and white (65%), with about half having less than a high school education or completing high school. Variables based on the TPB were assessed through questionnaire items that were constructed to form scales measuring attitudes, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control, and intention to consume dairy products. Dairy product consumption was measured using a food frequency questionnaire. Regression analyses were used to determine the association between the scales for the 3 variables proposed in the TPB and intention to consume and consumption of dairy products; the alpha level was set at.05 to determine the statistical significance of results. Attitudes toward eating dairy products and perceived behavioral control contributed to the model for predicting intention, whereas subjective norms did not. Attitudes toward eating dairy products were slightly more important than perceived behavioral control in predicting intention. In turn, intention was strongly related to dairy product consumption, and perceived behavioral control was independently associated with dairy product consumption. These results suggest the utility of the TPB in explaining dairy product consumption for older adults. Nutrition education should focus on improving attitudes and removing barriers to consumption of dairy products for older adults.

  17. An approach for prediction of petroleum production facility performance considering Arctic influence factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gao Xueli; Barabady, Javad; Markeset, Tore

    2010-01-01

    As the oil and gas (O and G) industry is increasing the focus on petroleum exploration and development in the Arctic region, it is becoming increasingly important to design exploration and production facilities to suit the local operating conditions. The cold and harsh climate, the long distance from customer and suppliers' markets, and the sensitive environment may have considerable influence on the choice of design solutions and production performance characteristics such as throughput capacity, reliability, availability, maintainability, and supportability (RAMS) as well as operational and maintenance activities. Due to this, data and information collected for similar systems used in a normal climate may not be suitable. Hence, it is important to study and develop methods for prediction of the production performance characteristics during the design and operation phases. The aim of this paper is to present an approach for prediction of the production performance for oil and gas production facilities considering influencing factors in Arctic conditions. The proportional repair model (PRM) is developed in order to predict repair rate in Arctic conditions. The model is based on the proportional hazard model (PHM). A simple case study is used to demonstrate how the proposed approach can be applied.

  18. Surviving death

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gerstroem, Anna

    2013-01-01

    such phases. The aim of this paper is to explore how an organization’s identity is re-constructed after organizational death. Based on interviews with members of a bankrupted bank who narrate their bankruptcy experiences, the paper explores how legacy organizational identity is constructed after...... organizational death. The paper shows how members draw on their legacy organizational identity to justify their past interpretations and responses to the intensifying bankruptcy threats. Members refer to their firm belief in the bank’s solid and robust identity claim when they explain how they disregarded...

  19. Guidelines for prediction of CO{sub 2} corrosion in oil and gas production systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nyborg, Rolf

    2009-09-15

    A group of corrosion experts from different oil companies has prepared guidelines for use of CO{sub 2} corrosion prediction tools. The guidelines are intended for use in design and engineering practice applied by companies operating oil and gas production facilities. This document attempts to set minimum guidelines that should be common to most companies. The document is sufficiently flexible to allow individual companies to adapt the information set forth in this document to their own environment and requirements. A methodology for defining the Iikelihood of corrosion and the impact on CO{sub 2} prediction is developed. The CO{sub 2} prediction is based on existing tools. An overview of available CO{sub 2} corrosion prediction models evaluated by the participants is given. It is the responsibility of the operator to select which model to use. (Author)

  20. Global resistance and resilience of primary production following extreme drought are predicted by mean annual precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stuart-Haëntjens, E. J.; De Boeck, H. J.; Lemoine, N. P.; Gough, C. M.; Kröel-Dulay, G.; Mänd, P.; Jentsch, A.; Schmidt, I. K.; Bahn, M.; Lloret, F.; Kreyling, J.; Wohlgemuth, T.; Stampfli, A.; Anderegg, W.; Classen, A. T.; Smith, M. D.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme drought is increasing globally in frequency and intensity, with uncertain consequences for the resistance and resilience of key ecosystem functions, including primary production. Primary production resistance, the capacity of an ecosystem to withstand change in primary production following extreme climate, and resilience, the degree to which primary production recovers, vary among and within ecosystem types, obscuring global patterns of resistance and resilience to extreme drought. Past syntheses on resistance have focused climatic gradients or individual ecosystem types, without assessing interactions between the two. Theory and many empirical studies suggest that forest production is more resistant but less resilient than grassland production to extreme drought, though some empirical studies reveal that these trends are not universal. Here, we conducted a global meta-analysis of sixty-four grassland and forest sites, finding that primary production resistance to extreme drought is predicted by a common continuum of mean annual precipitation (MAP). However, grasslands and forests exhibit divergent production resilience relationships with MAP. We discuss the likely mechanisms underlying the mixed production resistance and resilience patterns of forests and grasslands, including different plant species turnover times and drought adaptive strategies. These findings demonstrate the primary production responses of forests and grasslands to extreme drought are mixed, with far-reaching implications for Earth System Models, ecosystem management, and future studies of extreme drought resistance and resilience.

  1. Predictions of nitrogen oxides production in diffusion turbulent flames; Predictions de la production des oxydes d`azote dans les flammes turbulentes de diffusion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sanders, H.; Gokalp, I. [Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), 45 - Orleans-la-Source (France). Laboratoire de Combustion Systemes Reactifs

    1996-12-31

    The suitability of the turbulent combustion flamelets model in order to predict the index of NO{sub x} production in turbulent flames of hydrogen diffusion is analyzed. In the flamelet approach, the turbulent flame is equivalent to a group of laminar flames submitted to a mechanical stretching which generates a chemical disequilibrium. This effect can be described by the stretching or by the scalar dissipation ratio. A numerical modeling is performed in order to evaluate the advantages of both approaches and to compare the behaviour of the NO{sub x} emission index with the experiments of Chen and Driscoll. This study shows that predictions of NO{sub x} emission indexes have a correct behaviour with respect to the Damkoehler number only when the scalar dissipation ratio is used as a parameter to describe the chemical state outside equilibrium. Predictions of the flamelet models are improving when the Damkoehler number increases. On the other hand, the absolute NO{sub x} concentrations are overestimated and can be due to the effects of differential diffusion. (J.S.) 14 refs.

  2. Prediction of bakery products nutritive value based on mathematical modeling of biochemical reactions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. I. Ponomareva

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Researches are devoted to identifying changes in the chemical composition of whole-grain wheat bread during baking and to forecasting of food value of bakery products by mathematical modeling of biochemical transformations. The received model represents the invariant composition, considering speed of biochemical reactions at a batch of bakery products, and allowing conduct virtual experiments to develop new types of bread for various categories of the population, including athletes. The offered way of modeling of biochemical transformations at a stage of heat treatment allows to predict food value of bakery products, without spending funds for raw materials and large volume of experiment that will provide possibility of economy of material resources at a stage of development of new types of bakery products and possibility of production efficiency increase.

  3. Advancing alternatives analysis: The role of predictive toxicology in selecting safer chemical products and processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malloy, Timothy; Zaunbrecher, Virginia; Beryt, Elizabeth; Judson, Richard; Tice, Raymond; Allard, Patrick; Blake, Ann; Cote, Ila; Godwin, Hilary; Heine, Lauren; Kerzic, Patrick; Kostal, Jakub; Marchant, Gary; McPartland, Jennifer; Moran, Kelly; Nel, Andre; Ogunseitan, Oladele; Rossi, Mark; Thayer, Kristina; Tickner, Joel; Whittaker, Margaret; Zarker, Ken

    2017-09-01

    Alternatives analysis (AA) is a method used in regulation and product design to identify, assess, and evaluate the safety and viability of potential substitutes for hazardous chemicals. It requires toxicological data for the existing chemical and potential alternatives. Predictive toxicology uses in silico and in vitro approaches, computational models, and other tools to expedite toxicological data generation in a more cost-effective manner than traditional approaches. The present article briefly reviews the challenges associated with using predictive toxicology in regulatory AA, then presents 4 recommendations for its advancement. It recommends using case studies to advance the integration of predictive toxicology into AA, adopting a stepwise process to employing predictive toxicology in AA beginning with prioritization of chemicals of concern, leveraging existing resources to advance the integration of predictive toxicology into the practice of AA, and supporting transdisciplinary efforts. The further incorporation of predictive toxicology into AA would advance the ability of companies and regulators to select alternatives to harmful ingredients, and potentially increase the use of predictive toxicology in regulation more broadly. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:915-925. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

  4. Death cap

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rudbæk, Torsten R; Kofoed, Pernille Bouteloup; Bove, Jeppe

    2014-01-01

    Death cap (Amanita phalloides) is commonly found and is one of the five most toxic fungi in Denmark. Toxicity is due to amatoxin, and poisoning is a serious medical condition, causing organ failure with potential fatal outcome. Acknowledgement and clarification of exposure, symptomatic and focused...

  5. "Spectacular Death"

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, Michael Hviid

    2016-01-01

    be labelled ‘spectacular death’ in which death, dying and mourning have increasingly become spectacles. Moreover, the author proposes that what is currently happening in contemporary Western society can be interpreted as an expression of a ‘partial re-reversal’ of ‘forbidden death’ to some...

  6. Usefulness of right ventricular fractional area change to predict death, heart failure, and stroke following myocardial infarction (from the VALIANT ECHO Study)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Anavekar, Nagesh S; Skali, Hicham; Bourgoun, Mikhail

    2008-01-01

    , including age, ejection fraction, and Killip's classification, decreased RVFAC was independently associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 1.61, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.31 to 1.98), CV death (HR 1.62, 95% CI 1.30 to 2.01), sudden death (HR 1.79, 95% CI 1.26 to 2.54), HF...

  7. The ability of self-rated health to predict mortality among community-dwelling elderly individuals differs according to the specific cause of death: data from the NEDICES Cohort

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-Ruiz, Mario; Guerra-Vales, Juan M.; Trincado, Rocío; Fernández, Rebeca; Medrano, María José; Villarejo, Alberto; Benito-León, Julián; Bermejo-Pareja, Félix

    2013-01-01

    Background The biomedical and psychosocial mechanisms underlying the relationship between self-rated health (SRH) and mortality in elderly individuals remain unclear. Objective To assess the association between different measurements of subjective health (global, age-comparative, and time-comparative SRH) and cause-specific mortality. Methods Neurological Disorders in Central Spain (NEDICES) is a prospective population-based survey of the prevalence and incidence of major age-associated conditions. Data on demographic and health-related variables were collected from 5,278 subjects (≥65 years) at the baseline questionnaire. Thirteen-year mortality and cause of death were obtained from the National Death Registry. Adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) for SRH and all-cause and cause-specific mortality were estimated by Cox proportional hazard models. Results At baseline, 4,958 participants (93.9%) answered the SRH questionnaire. At the end of follow-up 2,468 (49.8%) participants had died (of whom 723 [29.2%] died from cardiovascular diseases, 609 [24.7%] from cancer, and 359 [14.5%] from respiratory diseases). Global SRH predicted independently all-cause mortality (aHR for “poor or very poor” vs. “very good” category: 1.39; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.15–1.69). Analysis of cause-specific mortality revealed that global SRH was an independent predictor for death due to respiratory diseases (aHR for “poor or very poor” vs. “very good” category: 2.61; 95% CI: 1.55–4.39), whereas age-comparative SRH exhibited a gradient effect on the risk of death due to stroke. Time-comparative SRH provided small additional predictive value. Conclusions The predictive ability of SRH for mortality largely differs according to the specific cause of death, with the strongest associations found for respiratory disease and stroke mortality. PMID:23615509

  8. A Network-Based Approach to Modeling and Predicting Product Coconsideration Relations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhenghui Sha

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Understanding customer preferences in consideration decisions is critical to choice modeling in engineering design. While existing literature has shown that the exogenous effects (e.g., product and customer attributes are deciding factors in customers’ consideration decisions, it is not clear how the endogenous effects (e.g., the intercompetition among products would influence such decisions. This paper presents a network-based approach based on Exponential Random Graph Models to study customers’ consideration behaviors according to engineering design. Our proposed approach is capable of modeling the endogenous effects among products through various network structures (e.g., stars and triangles besides the exogenous effects and predicting whether two products would be conisdered together. To assess the proposed model, we compare it against the dyadic network model that only considers exogenous effects. Using buyer survey data from the China automarket in 2013 and 2014, we evaluate the goodness of fit and the predictive power of the two models. The results show that our model has a better fit and predictive accuracy than the dyadic network model. This underscores the importance of the endogenous effects on customers’ consideration decisions. The insights gained from this research help explain how endogenous effects interact with exogeous effects in affecting customers’ decision-making.

  9. Probabilistic approach to the prediction of radioactive contamination of agricultural production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fesenko, S.F.; Chernyaeva, L.G.; Sanzharova, N.I.; Aleksakhin, R.M.

    1993-01-01

    The organization of agricultural production on the territory contaminated as a result of the Chernobyl reactor disaster involves prediction of the content of radionuclides in agro-industrial products. Traditional methods of prediting the contamination in the products does not give sufficient agreement with actual data and as a result it is difficult to make the necessary decisions about eliminating the consequences of the disaster in the agro-industrial complex. In many ways this is because the available methods are based on data on the radionuclide content in soils, plants, and plant and animal products. The parameters of the models used in the prediction are also evaluated on the basis of these results. Even if obtained from a single field or herd of livestock, however, such indicators have substantial variation coefficients due to various factors such as the spatial structure of the fallouts, the variability of the soil properties, the sampling error, the errors of processing and measuring the samples, and well as the data-averaging error. Consequently the parameters of the radionuclide transfer along the agricultural chains are very variable, thus considerably reducing the reliability of predicted values. The reliability of the prediction of radioactive contamination of agricultural products can be increased substantially by taking a probabilistic approach involving information about the random laws of contamination of farming land and the statistical features of the parameters of radionuclie migration along food chains. Considering the above, comparative analysis is made of the results obtained on the basis of the traditional treatment (deterministic in the simplest form) and its probabilistic analog

  10. Prediction of seasonal climate-induced variations in global food production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iizumi, Toshichika; Sakuma, Hirofumi; Yokozawa, Masayuki; Luo, Jing-Jia; Challinor, Andrew J.; Brown, Molly E.; Sakurai, Gen; Yamagata, Toshio

    2013-10-01

    Consumers, including the poor in many countries, are increasingly dependent on food imports and are thus exposed to variations in yields, production and export prices in the major food-producing regions of the world. National governments and commercial entities are therefore paying increased attention to the cropping forecasts of important food-exporting countries as well as to their own domestic food production. Given the increased volatility of food markets and the rising incidence of climatic extremes affecting food production, food price spikes may increase in prevalence in future years. Here we present a global assessment of the reliability of crop failure hindcasts for major crops at two lead times derived by linking ensemble seasonal climatic forecasts with statistical crop models. We found that moderate-to-marked yield loss over a substantial percentage (26-33%) of the harvested area of these crops is reliably predictable if climatic forecasts are near perfect. However, only rice and wheat production are reliably predictable at three months before the harvest using within-season hindcasts. The reliabilities of estimates varied substantially by crop--rice and wheat yields were the most predictable, followed by soybean and maize. The reasons for variation in the reliability of the estimates included the differences in crop sensitivity to the climate and the technology used by the crop-producing regions. Our findings reveal that the use of seasonal climatic forecasts to predict crop failures will be useful for monitoring global food production and will encourage the adaptation of food systems toclimatic extremes.

  11. Baseline β-catenin, programmed death-ligand 1 expression and tumour-infiltrating lymphocytes predict response and poor prognosis in BRAF inhibitor-treated melanoma patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massi, Daniela; Romano, Emanuela; Rulli, Eliana; Merelli, Barbara; Nassini, Romina; De Logu, Francesco; Bieche, Ivan; Baroni, Gianna; Cattaneo, Laura; Xue, Gongda; Mandalà, Mario

    2017-06-01

    The activation of oncogenic Wnt/β-catenin pathway in melanoma contributes to a lack of T-cell infiltration. Whether baseline β-catenin expression in the context of tumour-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) and programmed death ligand-1 (PD-L1) overexpression correlates with prognosis of metastatic melanoma patients (MMPs) treated with mitogen-activated protein kinase, MAPK inhibitor (MAPKi) monotherapy, however, has not been fully clarified. Sixty-four pre-treatment formalin-fixed and paraffin embedded melanoma samples from MMP treated with a BRAF inhibitor (n = 39) or BRAF and MEK inhibitors (n = 25) were assessed for presence of β-catenin, PD-L1, cluster of differentiation (CD)8, CD103 and forkhead box protein P3 (FOXP3) expression by immunohistochemistry, and results were correlated with clinical outcome. Quantitative assessment of mRNA transcripts associated with Wnt/β-catenin pathway and immune response was performed in 51 patients. We found an inverse correlation between tumoural β-catenin expression and the level of CD8, CD103 or forkhead box protein P3 (FOXP3) positivity in the tumour microenvironment (TME). By multivariate analysis, PD-L1 <5% (odds ratio, OR 0.12, 95% confidence interval, CI 0.03-0.53, p = 0.005) and the presence of CD8+ T cells (OR 18.27, 95%CI 2.54-131.52, p = 0.004) were significantly associated with a higher probability of response to MAPKi monotherapy. Responding patients showed a significantly increased expression of mRNA transcripts associated with adaptive immunity and antigen presentation. By multivariate analysis, progression-free survival (PFS) (hazards ratio (HR) = 0.25 95%CI 0.10-0.61, p = 0.002) and overall survival (OS) (HR = 0.24 95%CI 0.09-0.67, p = 0.006) were longer in patients with high density of CD8+ T cells and β-catenin <10% than those without CD8+ T cells infiltration and β-catenin ≥10%. Our findings provide evidence that in the context of MAPKi monotherapy, immune subsets in the (TME) and

  12. Failure criterion effect on solid production prediction and selection of completion solution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dariush Javani

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Production of fines together with reservoir fluid is called solid production. It varies from a few grams or less per ton of reservoir fluid posing only minor problems, to catastrophic amount possibly leading to erosion and complete filling of the borehole. This paper assesses solid production potential in a carbonate gas reservoir located in the south of Iran. Petrophysical logs obtained from the vertical well were employed to construct mechanical earth model. Then, two failure criteria, i.e. Mohr–Coulomb and Mogi–Coulomb, were used to investigate the potential of solid production of the well in the initial and depleted conditions of the reservoir. Using these two criteria, we estimated critical collapse pressure and compared them to the reservoir pressure. Solid production occurs if collapse pressure is greater than pore pressure. Results indicate that the two failure criteria show different estimations of solid production potential of the studied reservoir. Mohr–Coulomb failure criterion estimated solid production in both initial and depleted conditions, where Mogi–Coulomb criterion predicted no solid production in the initial condition of reservoir. Based on Mogi–Coulomb criterion, the well may not require completion solutions like perforated liner, until at least 60% of reservoir pressure was depleted which leads to decrease in operation cost and time.

  13. Value of Combining Left Atrial Diameter and Amino-terminal Pro-brain Natriuretic Peptide to the CHA2DS2-VASc Score for Predicting Stroke and Death in Patients with Sick Sinus Syndrome after Pacemaker Implantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mo, Bin-Feng; Lu, Qiu-Fen; Lu, Shang-Biao; Xie, Yu-Quan; Feng, Xiang-Fei; Li, Yi-Gang

    2017-08-20

    The CHA2DS2-VASc score is used clinically for stroke risk stratification in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). We sought to investigate whether the CHA2DS2-VASc score predicts stroke and death in Chinese patients with sick sinus syndrome (SSS) after pacemaker implantation and to evaluate whether the predictive power of the CHA2DS2-VASc score could be improved by combining it with left atrial diameter (LAD) and amino-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP). A total of 481 consecutive patients with SSS who underwent pacemaker implantation from January 2004 to December 2014 in our department were included. The CHA2DS2-VASc scores were retrospectively calculated according to the hospital medical records before pacemaker implantation. The outcome data (stroke and death) were collected by pacemaker follow-up visits and telephonic follow-up until December 31, 2015. During 2151 person-years of follow-up, 46 patients (9.6%) suffered stroke and 52 (10.8%) died. The CHA2DS2-VASc score showed a significant association with the development of stroke (hazard ratio [HR] 1.45, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.20-1.75, Ppacemaker implantation. The addition of LAD and NT-proBNP to the CHA2DS2-VASc score improved its predictive power for stroke and death, respectively, in this patient cohort. Future prospective studies are warranted to validate the benefit of adding LAD and NT-proBNP to the CHA2DS2-VASc score for predicting stroke and death risk in non-AF populations.

  14. An analytical model to predict the volume of sand during drilling and production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raoof Gholami

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Sand production is an undesired phenomenon occurring in unconsolidated formations due to shear failure and hydrodynamic forces. There have been many approaches developed to predict sand production and prevent it by changing drilling or production strategies. However, assumptions involved in these approaches have limited their applications to very specific scenarios. In this paper, an elliptical model based on the borehole shape is presented to predict the volume of sand produced during the drilling and depletion stages of oil and gas reservoirs. A shape factor parameter is introduced to estimate the changes in the geometry of the borehole as a result of shear failure. A carbonate reservoir from the south of Iran with a solid production history is used to show the application of the developed methodology. Deriving mathematical equations for determination of the shape factor based on different failure criteria indicate that the effect of the intermediate principal stress should be taken into account to achieve an accurate result. However, it should be noticed that the methodology presented can only be used when geomechanical parameters are accurately estimated prior to the production stage when using wells and field data.

  15. Predictive model for disinfection by-product in Alexandria drinking water, northern west of Egypt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdullah, Ali M; Hussona, Salah El-dien

    2013-10-01

    Chlorine has been utilized in the early stages of water treatment processes as disinfectant. Disinfection for drinking water reduces the risk of pathogenic infection but may pose a chemical threat to human health due to disinfection residues and their by-products (DBP) when the organic and inorganic precursors are present in water. In the last two decades, many modeling attempts have been made to predict the occurrence of DBP in drinking water. Models have been developed based on data generated in laboratory-scale and field-scale investigations. The objective of this paper is to develop a predictive model for DBP formation in the Alexandria governorate located at the northern west of Egypt based on field-scale investigations as well as laboratory-controlled experimentations. The present study showed that the correlation coefficient between trihalomethanes (THM) predicted and THM measured was R (2)=0.88 and the minimum deviation percentage between THM predicted and THM measured was 0.8 %, the maximum deviation percentage was 89.3 %, and the average deviation was 17.8 %, while the correlation coefficient between dichloroacetic acid (DCAA) predicted and DCAA measured was R (2)=0.98 and the minimum deviation percentage between DCAA predicted and DCAA measured was 1.3 %, the maximum deviation percentage was 47.2 %, and the average deviation was 16.6 %. In addition, the correlation coefficient between trichloroacetic acid (TCAA) predicted and TCAA measured was R (2)=0.98 and the minimum deviation percentage between TCAA predicted and TCAA measured was 4.9 %, the maximum deviation percentage was 43.0 %, and the average deviation was 16.0 %.

  16. Analysis and Prediction of Energy Production in Concentrating Photovoltaic (CPV Installations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Allen Barnett

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available A method for the prediction of Energy Production (EP in Concentrating Photovoltaic (CPV installations is examined in this study. It presents a new method that predicts EP by using Global Horizontal Irradiation (GHI and the Photovoltaic Geographical Information System (PVGIS database, instead of Direct Normal Irradiation (DNI data, which are rarely recorded at most locations. EP at four Spanish CPV installations is analyzed: two are based on silicon solar cells and the other two on multi-junction III-V solar cells. The real EP is compared with the predicted EP. Two methods for EP prediction are presented. In the first preliminary method, a monthly Performance Ratio (PR is used as an arbitrary constant value (75% and an estimation of the DNI. The DNI estimation is obtained from GHI measurements and the PVGIS database. In the second method, a lineal model is proposed for the first time in this paper to obtain the predicted EP from the estimated DNI. This lineal model is the regression line that correlates the real monthly EP and the estimated DNI in 2009. This new method implies that the monthly PR is variable. Using the new method, the difference between the predicted and the real EP values is less than 2% for the annual EP and is in the range of 5.6%–16.1% for the monthly EP. The method that uses the variable monthly PR allows the prediction of the EP with reasonable accuracy. It is therefore possible to predict the CPV EP for any location, using only widely available GHI data and the PVGIS database.

  17. Standard-model predictions for W-pair production in electron-positron collisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beenakker, W.; Denner, A.

    1994-03-01

    We review the status of the theoretical predictions for W-pair production in e + e - collisions within the electroweak standard model (SM). We first consider for on-shell W-bosons the lowest-order cross-section within the SM, the general effects of anomalous couplings, the radiative corrections within the SM, and approximations for them. Then we discuss the inclusion of finite-width effects in lowest order and the existing results for radiative corrections to off-shell W-pair production, and we outline the general strategy to calculate radiative corrections within the pole scheme. We summarize the theoretical predictions for the total and partial W-boson widths including radiative corrections and discuss the quality of an improved Born approximation. Finally we provide a general discussion of the structure-function method to calculate large logarithmic higher-order corrections associated with collinear photon radiation. (orig.)

  18. Spatiotemporal trends in Canadian domestic wild boar production and habitat predict wild pig distribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Michel, Nicole; Laforge, Michel; van Beest, Floris

    2017-01-01

    eradication of wild pigs is rarely feasible after establishment over large areas, effective management will depend on strengthening regulations and enforcement of containment practices for Canadian domestic wild boar farms. Initiation of coordinated provincial and federal efforts to implement population...... wild boar and test the propagule pressure hypothesis to improve predictive ability of an existing habitat-based model of wild pigs. We reviewed spatiotemporal patterns in domestic wild boar production across ten Canadian provinces during 1991–2011 and evaluated the ability of wild boar farm...... distribution to improve predictive models of wild pig occurrence using a resource selection probability function for wild pigs in Saskatchewan. Domestic wild boar production in Canada increased from 1991 to 2001 followed by sharp declines in all provinces. The distribution of domestic wild boar farms in 2006...

  19. Multivariable model predictive control design of reactive distillation column for Dimethyl Ether production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahid, A.; Putra, I. G. E. P.

    2018-03-01

    Dimethyl ether (DME) as an alternative clean energy has attracted a growing attention in the recent years. DME production via reactive distillation has potential for capital cost and energy requirement savings. However, combination of reaction and distillation on a single column makes reactive distillation process a very complex multivariable system with high non-linearity of process and strong interaction between process variables. This study investigates a multivariable model predictive control (MPC) based on two-point temperature control strategy for the DME reactive distillation column to maintain the purities of both product streams. The process model is estimated by a first order plus dead time model. The DME and water purity is maintained by controlling a stage temperature in rectifying and stripping section, respectively. The result shows that the model predictive controller performed faster responses compared to conventional PI controller that are showed by the smaller ISE values. In addition, the MPC controller is able to handle the loop interactions well.

  20. Prediction of novel synthetic pathways for the production of desired chemicals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Park Jin

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There have been several methods developed for the prediction of synthetic metabolic pathways leading to the production of desired chemicals. In these approaches, novel pathways were predicted based on chemical structure changes, enzymatic information, and/or reaction mechanisms, but the approaches generating a huge number of predicted results are difficult to be applied to real experiments. Also, some of these methods focus on specific pathways, and thus are limited to expansion to the whole metabolism. Results In the present study, we propose a system framework employing a retrosynthesis model with a prioritization scoring algorithm. This new strategy allows deducing the novel promising pathways for the synthesis of a desired chemical together with information on enzymes involved based on structural changes and reaction mechanisms present in the system database. The prioritization scoring algorithm employing Tanimoto coefficient and group contribution method allows examination of structurally qualified pathways to recognize which pathway is more appropriate. In addition, new concepts of binding site covalence, estimation of pathway distance and organism specificity were taken into account to identify the best synthetic pathway. Parameters of these factors can be evolutionarily optimized when a newly proven synthetic pathway is registered. As the proofs of concept, the novel synthetic pathways for the production of isobutanol, 3-hydroxypropionate, and butyryl-CoA were predicted. The prediction shows a high reliability, in which experimentally verified synthetic pathways were listed within the top 0.089% of the identified pathway candidates. Conclusions It is expected that the system framework developed in this study would be useful for the in silico design of novel metabolic pathways to be employed for the efficient production of chemicals, fuels and materials.

  1. Distance saturation product predicts health-related quality of life among sarcoidosis patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourbonnais, Julie M; Malaisamy, Subramanian; Dalal, Bhavinkumar D; Samarakoon, Priyan C; Parikh, Swapna R; Samavati, Lobelia

    2012-06-13

    Sarcoidosis is a chronic disease with different phenotypic manifestations. Health-related quality of life is an important aspect in sarcoidosis, yet difficult to measure. The objective of this study was to identify clinical markers predictive of poor quality of life in sarcoidosis patients that can be followed over time and targeted for intervention. We assessed the quality of life of 162 patients with confirmed sarcoidosis in a prospective, cross-sectional study using the Sarcoidosis Health Questionnaire (SHQ) and Short Form-36 Health Survey (SF-36). We evaluated the validity of these questionnaires and sought to identify variables that would best explain the performance scores of the patients. On multivariate regression analyses, the very best composite model to predict total scores from both surveys was a model containing the distance-saturation product and Borg Dyspnea Scale score at the end of a 6-min walk test. This model could better predict SF-36 scores (R² = 0.33) than SHQ scores (R² = 0.24). Substitution of distanced walked in 6 min for the distance-saturation product in this model resulted in a lesser ability to predict both scores (R² = 0.26 for SF-36; R² = 0.22 for SHQ). Both the SHQ and SF-36 surveys are valuable tools in the assessment of health-related quality of life in sarcoidosis patients. The best model to predict quality of life among these patients, as determined by regression analyses, included the distance-saturation product and Borg score after the 6-min walk test. Both variables represent easily obtainable clinical parameters that can be followed over time and targeted for intervention.

  2. Portfolio theory of optimal isometric force production: Variability predictions and nonequilibrium fluctuation dissipation theorem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank, T. D.; Patanarapeelert, K.; Beek, P. J.

    2008-05-01

    We derive a fundamental relationship between the mean and the variability of isometric force. The relationship arises from an optimal collection of active motor units such that the force variability assumes a minimum (optimal isometric force). The relationship is shown to be independent of the explicit motor unit properties and of the dynamical features of isometric force production. A constant coefficient of variation in the asymptotic regime and a nonequilibrium fluctuation-dissipation theorem for optimal isometric force are predicted.

  3. Portfolio theory of optimal isometric force production: Variability predictions and nonequilibrium fluctuation-dissipation theorem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frank, T.D.; Patanarapeelert, K.; Beek, P.J.

    2008-01-01

    We derive a fundamental relationship between the mean and the variability of isometric force. The relationship arises from an optimal collection of active motor units such that the force variability assumes a minimum (optimal isometric force). The relationship is shown to be independent of the explicit motor unit properties and of the dynamical features of isometric force production. A constant coefficient of variation in the asymptotic regime and a nonequilibrium fluctuation-dissipation theorem for optimal isometric force are predicted

  4. Performance Comparison Between Support Vector Regression and Artificial Neural Network for Prediction of Oil Palm Production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mustakim Mustakim

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The largest region that produces oil palm in Indonesia has an important role in improving the welfare of society and economy. Oil palm has increased significantly in Riau Province in every period, to determine the production development for the next few years with the functions and benefits of oil palm carried prediction production results that were seen from time series data last 8 years (2005-2013. In its prediction implementation, it was done by comparing the performance of Support Vector Regression (SVR method and Artificial Neural Network (ANN. From the experiment, SVR produced the best model compared with ANN. It is indicated by the correlation coefficient of 95% and 6% for MSE in the kernel Radial Basis Function (RBF, whereas ANN produced only 74% for R2 and 9% for MSE on the 8th experiment with hiden neuron 20 and learning rate 0,1. SVR model generates predictions for next 3 years which increased between 3% - 6% from actual data and RBF model predictions.

  5. Consensus Modeling for Prediction of Estrogenic Activity of Ingredients Commonly Used in Sunscreen Products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huixiao Hong

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Sunscreen products are predominantly regulated as over-the-counter (OTC drugs by the US FDA. The “active” ingredients function as ultraviolet filters. Once a sunscreen product is generally recognized as safe and effective (GRASE via an OTC drug review process, new formulations using these ingredients do not require FDA review and approval, however, the majority of ingredients have never been tested to uncover any potential endocrine activity and their ability to interact with the estrogen receptor (ER is unknown, despite the fact that this is a very extensively studied target related to endocrine activity. Consequently, we have developed an in silico model to prioritize single ingredient estrogen receptor activity for use when actual animal data are inadequate, equivocal, or absent. It relies on consensus modeling to qualitatively and quantitatively predict ER binding activity. As proof of concept, the model was applied to ingredients commonly used in sunscreen products worldwide and a few reference chemicals. Of the 32 chemicals with unknown ER binding activity that were evaluated, seven were predicted to be active estrogenic compounds. Five of the seven were confirmed by the published data. Further experimental data is needed to confirm the other two predictions.

  6. The Role of a PMI-Prediction Model in Evaluating Forensic Entomology Experimental Design, the Importance of Covariates, and the Utility of Response Variables for Estimating Time Since Death

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey Wells

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The most common forensic entomological application is the estimation of some portion of the time since death, or postmortem interval (PMI. To our knowledge, a PMI estimate is almost never accompanied by an associated probability. Statistical methods are now available for calculating confidence limits for an insect-based prediction of PMI for both succession and development data. In addition to it now being possible to employ these approaches in validation experiments and casework, it is also now possible to use the criterion of prediction performance to guide training experiments, i.e., to modify carrion insect development or succession experiment design in ways likely to improve the performance of PMI predictions using the resulting data. In this paper, we provide examples, derived from our research program on calculating PMI estimate probabilities, of how training data experiment design can influence the performance of a statistical model for PMI prediction.

  7. Characterization and prediction of chemical functions and weight fractions in consumer products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristin K. Isaacs

    Full Text Available Assessing exposures from the thousands of chemicals in commerce requires quantitative information on the chemical constituents of consumer products. Unfortunately, gaps in available composition data prevent assessment of exposure to chemicals in many products. Here we propose filling these gaps via consideration of chemical functional role. We obtained function information for thousands of chemicals from public sources and used a clustering algorithm to assign chemicals into 35 harmonized function categories (e.g., plasticizers, antimicrobials, solvents. We combined these functions with weight fraction data for 4115 personal care products (PCPs to characterize the composition of 66 different product categories (e.g., shampoos. We analyzed the combined weight fraction/function dataset using machine learning techniques to develop quantitative structure property relationship (QSPR classifier models for 22 functions and for weight fraction, based on chemical-specific descriptors (including chemical properties. We applied these classifier models to a library of 10196 data-poor chemicals. Our predictions of chemical function and composition will inform exposure-based screening of chemicals in PCPs for combination with hazard data in risk-based evaluation frameworks. As new information becomes available, this approach can be applied to other classes of products and the chemicals they contain in order to provide essential consumer product data for use in exposure-based chemical prioritization. Keywords: Chemical function, Exposure modeling, Chemical prioritization, Consumer products, Cosmetics, ExpoCast

  8. Mean annual precipitation predicts primary production resistance and resilience to extreme drought.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stuart-Haëntjens, Ellen; De Boeck, Hans J; Lemoine, Nathan P; Mänd, Pille; Kröel-Dulay, György; Schmidt, Inger K; Jentsch, Anke; Stampfli, Andreas; Anderegg, William R L; Bahn, Michael; Kreyling, Juergen; Wohlgemuth, Thomas; Lloret, Francisco; Classen, Aimée T; Gough, Christopher M; Smith, Melinda D

    2018-04-27

    Extreme drought is increasing in frequency and intensity in many regions globally, with uncertain consequences for the resistance and resilience of ecosystem functions, including primary production. Primary production resistance, the capacity to withstand change during extreme drought, and resilience, the degree to which production recovers, vary among and within ecosystem types, obscuring generalized patterns of ecological stability. Theory and many observations suggest forest production is more resistant but less resilient than grassland production to extreme drought; however, studies of production sensitivity to precipitation variability indicate that the processes controlling resistance and resilience may be influenced more by mean annual precipitation (MAP) than ecosystem type. Here, we conducted a global meta-analysis to investigate primary production resistance and resilience to extreme drought in 64 forests and grasslands across a broad MAP gradient. We found resistance to extreme drought was predicted by MAP; however, grasslands (positive) and forests (negative) exhibited opposing resilience relationships with MAP. Our findings indicate that common plant physiological mechanisms may determine grassland and forest resistance to extreme drought, whereas differences among plant residents in turnover time, plant architecture, and drought adaptive strategies likely underlie divergent resilience patterns. The low resistance and resilience of dry grasslands suggests that these ecosystems are the most vulnerable to extreme drought - a vulnerability that is expected to compound as extreme drought frequency increases in the future. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  9. [Productivity costs of rheumatoid arthritis in Germany. Cost composition and prediction of main cost components].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merkesdal, S; Huelsemann, J L; Mittendorf, T; Zeh, S; Zeidler, H; Ruof, J

    2006-10-01

    Identification of predictors for the productivity cost components: (1) sick leave, and (2) work disability in gainfully employed and (3) impaired household productivity in unemployed patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) from the societal perspective. Investigation of productivity costs was linked to a multicenter, randomized, controlled trial evaluating the effectiveness of clinical quality management in 338 patients with RA. The productivity losses were assessed according to the German Guidelines on Health Economic Evaluation. By means of multivariate logistic regression analyses, predictors of sick leave, work disability (employed patients, n=96), and for days confined to bed in unemployed patient (n=242) were determined. Mean annual costs of 970 EUR arose per person taking into consideration all patients (453 EUR sick leave, 63 EUR work disability, 454 EUR impaired productivity of unemployed patients). Disease activity, disease severity, and impaired physical function were global predictors for all of the cost components investigated. Sick leave costs were predicted by prior sick leave periods and the vocational status blue collar worker, work disability costs by sociodemographic variables (marital status, schooling), and the productivity costs of unemployed patients by impaired mental health and impaired physical functions. Interventions such as reduction in disease progression and control of disease activity, early vocational rehabilitation measures and vocational retraining in patients at risk of quitting working life, and self-management programs to learn coping strategies might decrease future RA-related productivity costs.

  10. Single-Event Transgene Product Levels Predict Levels in Genetically Modified Breeding Stacks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gampala, Satyalinga Srinivas; Fast, Brandon J; Richey, Kimberly A; Gao, Zhifang; Hill, Ryan; Wulfkuhle, Bryant; Shan, Guomin; Bradfisch, Greg A; Herman, Rod A

    2017-09-13

    The concentration of transgene products (proteins and double-stranded RNA) in genetically modified (GM) crop tissues is measured to support food, feed, and environmental risk assessments. Measurement of transgene product concentrations in breeding stacks of previously assessed and approved GM events is required by many regulatory authorities to evaluate unexpected transgene interactions that might affect expression. Research was conducted to determine how well concentrations of transgene products in single GM events predict levels in breeding stacks composed of these events. The concentrations of transgene products were compared between GM maize, soybean, and cotton breeding stacks (MON-87427 × MON-89034 × DAS-Ø15Ø7-1 × MON-87411 × DAS-59122-7 × DAS-40278-9 corn, DAS-81419-2 × DAS-44406-6 soybean, and DAS-21023-5 × DAS-24236-5 × SYN-IR102-7 × MON-88913-8 × DAS-81910-7 cotton) and their component single events (MON-87427, MON-89034, DAS-Ø15Ø7-1, MON-87411, DAS-59122-7, and DAS-40278-9 corn, DAS-81419-2, and DAS-44406-6 soybean, and DAS-21023-5, DAS-24236-5, SYN-IR102-7, MON-88913-8, and DAS-81910-7 cotton). Comparisons were made within a crop and transgene product across plant tissue types and were also made across transgene products in each breeding stack for grain/seed. Scatter plots were generated comparing expression in the stacks to their component events, and the percent of variability accounted for by the line of identity (y = x) was calculated (coefficient of identity, I 2 ). Results support transgene concentrations in single events predicting similar concentrations in breeding stacks containing the single events. Therefore, food, feed, and environmental risk assessments based on concentrations of transgene products in single GM events are generally applicable to breeding stacks composed of these events.

  11. Growth and predicted productivity of Opuntia ficus-indica for current and elevated carbon dioxide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nobel, P.S. (Univ. of California, Los Angeles (United States)); Garcia de Cortazar, V. (Univ. de Chile, Santiago (Chile))

    Opuntia ficus-indica (L.) Mill., a prickly pear cactus cultivated worldwide for its fruits and stem segments, can have an annual dry weight productivity exceeding that of many crops. Using a recent introduced environmental productivity index (EPI), the influences of water status, temperature, and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) on its productivity can be predicted. This investigation calculated the water index, the temperature index, and the PAR index, whose product equals EPI, for 169 sites distributed approximately uniformly across the contiguous USA for present climatic conditions as well as for those associated with an elevated CO{sub 2} concentration of 650 {mu}L L{sup {minus}1}. The effect of elevated CO{sub 2} on growth of O. ficus-indica was directly measured, and low temperature limitations on productivity were considered. The dry weight gain of O. ficus-indica during 6 mo in an environmental growth chamber was 23% greater at 650 compared with 350 {mu}L L{sup {minus}1} CO{sub 2} and increased as the duration of the wet period increased. For closely spaced plants that lead to a high productivity per unit ground area, EPI averaged about 0.10, except in desert regions where the water index lowered EPI, in the far North or South and at high elevations where the temperature index lowered EPI, and in the Northeast and Northwest where the PAR index lowered EPI. The predicted annual dry weight productivity for O. ficus-indica was 12.8 Mg ha{sup {minus}1} yr{sup {minus}1} under current conditions, and 16.3 Mg ha{sup {minus}1} yr{sup {minus}1} under those associated with 650 {mu}L L{sup {minus}1} CO{sub 2}.

  12. Concrete Cracking Prediction Including the Filling Proportion of Strand Corrosion Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lei; Dai, Lizhao; Zhang, Xuhui; Zhang, Jianren

    2016-01-01

    The filling of strand corrosion products during concrete crack propagation is investigated experimentally in the present paper. The effects of stirrups on the filling of corrosion products and concrete cracking are clarified. A prediction model of crack width is developed incorporating the filling proportion of corrosion products and the twisting shape of the strand. Experimental data on cracking angle, crack width, and corrosion loss obtained from accelerated corrosion tests of concrete beams are presented. The proposed model is verified by experimental data. Results show that the filling extent of corrosion products varies with crack propagation. The rust filling extent increases with the propagating crack until a critical width. Beyond the critical width, the rust-filling extent remains stable. Using stirrups can decrease the critical crack width. Stirrups can restrict crack propagation and reduce the rust filling. The tangent of the cracking angle increases with increasing corrosion loss. The prediction of corrosion-induced crack is sensitive to the rust-filling extent. PMID:28772367

  13. A cost prediction model for machine operation in multi-field production systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandro Sopegno

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Capacity planning in agricultural field operations needs to give consideration to the operational system design which involves the selection and dimensioning of production components, such as machinery and equipment. Capacity planning models currently onstream are generally based on average norm data and not on specific farm data which may vary from year to year. In this paper a model is presented for predicting the cost of in-field and transport operations for multiple-field and multiple-crop production systems. A case study from a real production system is presented in order to demonstrate the model’s functionalities and its sensitivity to parameters known to be somewhat imprecise. It was shown that the proposed model can provide operation cost predictions for complex cropping systems where labor and machinery are shared between the various operations which can be individually formulated for each individual crop. By so doing, the model can be used as a decision support system at the strategic level of management of agricultural production systems and specifically for the mid-term design process of systems in terms of labor/machinery and crop selection conforming to the criterion of profitability.

  14. An IPSO-SVM algorithm for security state prediction of mine production logistics system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yanliang; Lei, Junhui; Ma, Qiuli; Chen, Xin; Bi, Runfang

    2017-06-01

    A theoretical basis for the regulation of corporate security warning and resources was provided in order to reveal the laws behind the security state in mine production logistics. Considering complex mine production logistics system and the variable is difficult to acquire, a superior security status predicting model of mine production logistics system based on the improved particle swarm optimization and support vector machine (IPSO-SVM) is proposed in this paper. Firstly, through the linear adjustments of inertia weight and learning weights, the convergence speed and search accuracy are enhanced with the aim to deal with situations associated with the changeable complexity and the data acquisition difficulty. The improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO) is then introduced to resolve the problem of parameter settings in traditional support vector machines (SVM). At the same time, security status index system is built to determine the classification standards of safety status. The feasibility and effectiveness of this method is finally verified using the experimental results.

  15. Predictive analytics tools to adjust and monitor performance metrics for the ATLAS Production System

    CERN Document Server

    Titov, Mikhail; The ATLAS collaboration

    2017-01-01

    Every scientific workflow involves an organizational part which purpose is to plan an analysis process thoroughly according to defined schedule, thus to keep work progress efficient. Having such information as an estimation of the processing time or possibility of system outage (abnormal behaviour) will improve the planning process, provide an assistance to monitor system performance and predict its next state. The ATLAS Production System is an automated scheduling system that is responsible for central production of Monte-Carlo data, highly specialized production for physics groups, as well as data pre-processing and analysis using such facilities as grid infrastructures, clouds and supercomputers. With its next generation (ProdSys2) the processing rate is around 2M tasks per year that is more than 365M jobs per year. ProdSys2 evolves to accommodate a growing number of users and new requirements from the ATLAS Collaboration, physics groups and individual users. ATLAS Distributed Computing in its current stat...

  16. Predictive modeling of biomass production by Chlorella vulgaris in a draft-tube airlift photobioreactor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohsen Mansouri

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to investigate the growth rate of Chlorella vulgaris for CO2 biofixation and biomass production. Six mathematical growth models (Logistic, Gompertz, modified Gompertz, Baranyi, Morgan and Richards were used to evaluate the biomass productivity in continuous processes and to predict the following parameters of cell growth: lag phase duration (λ, maximum specific growth rate (μmax, and maximum cell concentration (Xmax. The low root-mean-square error (RMSE and high regression coefficients (R2 indicated that the models employed were well fitted to the experiment data and it could be regarded as enough to describe biomass production. Using statistical and physiological significance criteria, the Baranyi model was considered the most appropriate for quantifying biomass growth. The biological variables of this model are as follows: μmax=0.0309 h−1, λ=100 h, and Xmax=1.82 g/L.

  17. A Simple Physics-Based Model Predicts Oil Production from Thousands of Horizontal Wells in Shales

    KAUST Repository

    Patzek, Tadeusz

    2017-10-18

    Over the last six years, crude oil production from shales and ultra-deep GOM in the United States has accounted for most of the net increase of global oil production. Therefore, it is important to have a good predictive model of oil production and ultimate recovery in shale wells. Here we introduce a simple model of producing oil and solution gas from the horizontal hydrofractured wells. This model is consistent with the basic physics and geometry of the extraction process. We then apply our model thousands of wells in the Eagle Ford shale. Given well geometry, we obtain a one-dimensional nonlinear pressure diffusion equation that governs flow of mostly oil and solution gas. In principle, solutions of this equation depend on many parameters, but in practice and within a given oil shale, all but three can be fixed at typical values, leading to a nonlinear diffusion problem we linearize and solve exactly with a scaling

  18. Towards prediction of metabolic products of polyketide synthases: an in silico analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gitanjali Yadav

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Sequence data arising from an increasing number of partial and complete genome projects is revealing the presence of the polyketide synthase (PKS family of genes not only in microbes and fungi but also in plants and other eukaryotes. PKSs are huge multifunctional megasynthases that use a variety of biosynthetic paradigms to generate enormously diverse arrays of polyketide products that posses several pharmaceutically important properties. The remarkable conservation of these gene clusters across organisms offers abundant scope for obtaining novel insights into PKS biosynthetic code by computational analysis. We have carried out a comprehensive in silico analysis of modular and iterative gene clusters to test whether chemical structures of the secondary metabolites can be predicted from PKS protein sequences. Here, we report the success of our method and demonstrate the feasibility of deciphering the putative metabolic products of uncharacterized PKS clusters found in newly sequenced genomes. Profile Hidden Markov Model analysis has revealed distinct sequence features that can distinguish modular PKS proteins from their iterative counterparts. For iterative PKS proteins, structural models of iterative ketosynthase (KS domains have revealed novel correlations between the size of the polyketide products and volume of the active site pocket. Furthermore, we have identified key residues in the substrate binding pocket that control the number of chain extensions in iterative PKSs. For modular PKS proteins, we describe for the first time an automated method based on crucial intermolecular contacts that can distinguish the correct biosynthetic order of substrate channeling from a large number of non-cognate combinatorial possibilities. Taken together, our in silico analysis provides valuable clues for formulating rules for predicting polyketide products of iterative as well as modular PKS clusters. These results have promising potential for discovery of

  19. Coregulation of terpenoid pathway genes and prediction of isoprene production in Bacillus subtilis using transcriptomics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hess, Becky M.; Xue, Junfeng; Markillie, Lye Meng; Taylor, Ronald C.; Wiley, H. S.; Ahring, Birgitte K.; Linggi, Bryan E.

    2013-06-19

    The isoprenoid pathway converts pyruvate to isoprene and related isoprenoid compounds in plants and some bacteria. Currently, this pathway is of great interest because of the critical role that isoprenoids play in basic cellular processes as well as the industrial value of metabolites such as isoprene. Although the regulation of several pathway genes has been described, there is a paucity of information regarding the system level regulation and control of the pathway. To address this limitation, we examined Bacillus subtilis grown under multiple conditions and then determined the relationship between altered isoprene production and the pattern of gene expression. We found that terpenoid genes appeared to fall into two distinct subsets with opposing correlations with respect to the amount of isoprene produced. The group whose expression levels positively correlated with isoprene production included dxs, the gene responsible for the commitment step in the pathway, as well as ispD, and two genes that participate in the mevalonate pathway, yhfS and pksG. The subset of terpenoid genes that inversely correlated with isoprene production included ispH, ispF, hepS, uppS, ispE, and dxr. A genome wide partial least squares regression model was created to identify other genes or pathways that contribute to isoprene production. This analysis showed that a subset of 213 regulated genes was sufficient to create a predictive model of isoprene production under different conditions and showed correlations at the transcriptional level. We conclude that gene expression levels alone are sufficiently informative about the metabolic state of a cell that produces increased isoprene and can be used to build a model which accurately predicts production of this secondary metabolite across many simulated environmental conditions.

  20. Development and validation of a prognostic model to predict death in patients with traumatic bleeding, and evaluation of the effect of tranexamic acid on mortality according to baseline risk: a secondary analysis of a randomised controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perel, P; Prieto-Merino, D; Shakur, H; Roberts, I

    2013-06-01

    Severe bleeding accounts for about one-third of in-hospital trauma deaths. Patients with a high baseline risk of death have the most to gain from the use of life-saving treatments. An accurate and user-friendly prognostic model to predict mortality in bleeding trauma patients could assist doctors and paramedics in pre-hospital triage and could shorten the time to diagnostic and life-saving procedures such as surgery and tranexamic acid (TXA). The aim of the study was to develop and validate a prognostic model for early mortality in patients with traumatic bleeding and to examine whether or not the effect of TXA on the risk of death and thrombotic events in bleeding adult trauma patients varies according to baseline risk. Multivariable logistic regression and risk-stratified analysis of a large international cohort of trauma patients. Two hundred and seventy-four hospitals in 40 high-, medium- and low-income countries. We derived prognostic models in a large placebo-controlled trial of the effects of early administration of a short course of TXA [Clinical Randomisation of an Antifibrinolytic in Significant Haemorrhage (CRASH-2) trial]. The trial included 20,127 trauma patients with, or at risk of, significant bleeding, within 8 hours of injury. We externally validated the model on 14,220 selected trauma patients from the Trauma Audit and Research Network (TARN), which included mainly patients from the UK. We examined the effect of TXA on all-cause mortality, death due to bleeding and thrombotic events (fatal and non-fatal myocardial infarction, stroke, deep-vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism) within risk strata in the CRASH-2 trial data set and we estimated the proportion of premature deaths averted by applying the odds ratio (OR) from the CRASH-2 trial to each of the risk strata in TARN. For the stratified analysis according baseline risk we considered the intervention TXA (1 g over 10 minutes followed by 1 g over 8 hours) or matching placebo. For the

  1. Relating lab to life: Decrements in attention over time predict math productivity among children with ADHD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fosco, Whitney D; Hawk, Larry W

    2017-02-01

    A child's ability to sustain attention over time (AOT) is critical in attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), yet no prior work has examined the extent to which a child's decrement in AOT on laboratory tasks relates to clinically-relevant behavior. The goal of this study is to provide initial evidence for the criterion validity of laboratory assessments of AOT. A total of 20 children with ADHD (7-12 years of age) who were enrolled in a summer treatment program completed two lab attention tasks (a continuous performance task and a self-paced choice discrimination task) and math seatwork. Analyses focused on relations between attention task parameters and math productivity. Individual differences in overall attention (OA) measures (averaged across time) accounted for 23% of the variance in math productivity, supporting the criterion validity of lab measures of attention. The criterion validity was enhanced by consideration of changes in AOT. Performance on all laboratory attention measures deteriorated as time-on-task increased, and individual differences in the decrement in AOT accounted for 40% of the variance in math productivity. The only variable to uniquely predict math productivity was from the self-paced choice discrimination task. This study suggests that attention tasks in the lab do predict a clinically-relevant target behavior in children with ADHD, supporting their use as a means to study attention processes in a controlled environment. Furthermore, this prediction is improved when attention is examined as a function of time-on-task and when the attentional demands are consistent between lab and life contexts.

  2. Prediction of Pig Trade Movements in Different European Production Systems Using Exponential Random Graph Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Relun, Anne; Grosbois, Vladimir; Alexandrov, Tsviatko; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, Jose M; Waret-Szkuta, Agnes; Molia, Sophie; Etter, Eric Marcel Charles; Martínez-López, Beatriz

    2017-01-01

    In most European countries, data regarding movements of live animals are routinely collected and can greatly aid predictive epidemic modeling. However, the use of complete movements' dataset to conduct policy-relevant predictions has been so far limited by the massive amount of data that have to be processed (e.g., in intensive commercial systems) or the restricted availability of timely and updated records on animal movements (e.g., in areas where small-scale or extensive production is predominant). The aim of this study was to use exponential random graph models (ERGMs) to reproduce, understand, and predict pig trade networks in different European production systems. Three trade networks were built by aggregating movements of pig batches among premises (farms and trade operators) over 2011 in Bulgaria, Extremadura (Spain), and Côtes-d'Armor (France), where small-scale, extensive, and intensive pig production are predominant, respectively. Three ERGMs were fitted to each network with various demographic and geographic attributes of the nodes as well as six internal network configurations. Several statistical and graphical diagnostic methods were applied to assess the goodness of fit of the models. For all systems, both exogenous (attribute-based) and endogenous (network-based) processes appeared to govern the structure of pig trade network, and neither alone were capable of capturing all aspects of the network structure. Geographic mixing patterns strongly structured pig trade organization in the small-scale production system, whereas belonging to the same company or keeping pigs in the same housing system appeared to be key drivers of pig trade, in intensive and extensive production systems, respectively. Heterogeneous mixing between types of production also explained a part of network structure, whichever production system considered. Limited information is thus needed to capture most of the global structure of pig trade networks. Such findings will be useful

  3. Prediction of municipal water production in touristic Mecca City in Saudi Arabia using neural networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    AbdelHamid Ajbar

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate forecast of municipal water production is critically important for arid and oil rich countries such as Saudi Arabia which depend on costly desalination plants to satisfy the growing water demand. Achieving the desired prediction accuracy is a challenging task since the forecast model should take into consideration a variety of factors such as economic development, climate conditions and population growth. The task is further complicated given that Mecca city is visited regularly by large numbers during specific months in the year due to religious reasons. This study develops a neural network model for forecasting the monthly and annual water demand for Mecca city, Saudi Arabia. The proposed model used historic records of water production and estimated visitors’ distribution to calibrate a neural network model for water demand forecast. The explanatory variables included annually-varying variables such as household income, persons per household, and city population, along with monthly-varying variables such as expected number of visitors each month and maximum monthly temperature. The NN prediction outperforms that of a regular econometric model. The latter is adjusted such that it can provide monthly and annual predictions.

  4. USE OF NEAR INFRARED TECHNOLOGY TO PREDICT FATTY ACID GROUPS IN COMMERCIAL GROUND MEAT PRODUCTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sofia Ton

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Near infrared transmittance (NIT, 850 to 1048 nm spectroscopy was used to predict groups of fatty acids (FA, namely saturated FA (SFA, monounsaturated FA (MUFA and polyunsaturated FA (PUFA, in commercial ground meat samples aiming to develope a fast and reliable method for their determination in support of label declaration by the new EC Regulation 1169/2011. Dataset was built using 81 samples of commercial ground meat from different species: beef, pork, chicken and turkey. In some samples, meat was mixtured with different ingredients such as bread, cheese, spices and additives. Samples were first analysed by NIT instrument for spectral information and reference FA values were obtained by gas chromatographic analysis. Prediction models for SFA, MUFA and PUFA expressed on total FA exhibited coefficients of determination of calibration of 0.822, 0.367 and 0.780 on intact samples, and 0.879, 0.726 and 0.908 on minced samples, respectively. Good results were also obtained when FA groups were expressed as g/100g of fresh meat: the coefficient of determination of calibration increased to values larger than 0.915. Moreover, comparing the slightly lower coefficient of determination in crossvalidation of intact compared with minced meat suggested that equations developed for minced samples were more accurate than those built for intact products. Results highlighted the effectiveness of NIT spectroscopy to predict the major FA groups in commercial meat products.

  5. Method of fission product beta spectra measurements for predicting reactor anti-neutrino emission

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Asner, D.M.; Burns, K.; Campbell, L.W.; Greenfield, B.; Kos, M.S., E-mail: markskos@gmail.com; Orrell, J.L.; Schram, M.; VanDevender, B.; Wood, L.S.; Wootan, D.W.

    2015-03-11

    The nuclear fission process that occurs in the core of nuclear reactors results in unstable, neutron-rich fission products that subsequently beta decay and emit electron antineutrinos. These reactor neutrinos have served neutrino physics research from the initial discovery of the neutrino to today's precision measurements of neutrino mixing angles. The prediction of the absolute flux and energy spectrum of the emitted reactor neutrinos hinges upon a series of seminal papers based on measurements performed in the 1970s and 1980s. The steadily improving reactor neutrino measurement techniques and recent reconsiderations of the agreement between the predicted and observed reactor neutrino flux motivates revisiting the underlying beta spectra measurements. A method is proposed to use an accelerator proton beam delivered to an engineered target to yield a neutron field tailored to reproduce the neutron energy spectrum present in the core of an operating nuclear reactor. Foils of the primary reactor fissionable isotopes placed in this tailored neutron flux will ultimately emit beta particles from the resultant fission products. Measurement of these beta particles in a time projection chamber with a perpendicular magnetic field provides a distinctive set of systematic considerations for comparison to the original seminal beta spectra measurements. Ancillary measurements such as gamma-ray emission and post-irradiation radiochemical analysis will further constrain the absolute normalization of beta emissions per fission. The requirements for unfolding the beta spectra measured with this method into a predicted reactor neutrino spectrum are explored.

  6. Predicting Solar Flares Using SDO /HMI Vector Magnetic Data Products and the Random Forest Algorithm

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Chang; Deng, Na; Wang, Haimin [Space Weather Research Laboratory, New Jersey Institute of Technology, University Heights, Newark, NJ 07102-1982 (United States); Wang, Jason T. L., E-mail: chang.liu@njit.edu, E-mail: na.deng@njit.edu, E-mail: haimin.wang@njit.edu, E-mail: jason.t.wang@njit.edu [Department of Computer Science, New Jersey Institute of Technology, University Heights, Newark, NJ 07102-1982 (United States)

    2017-07-10

    Adverse space-weather effects can often be traced to solar flares, the prediction of which has drawn significant research interests. The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) produces full-disk vector magnetograms with continuous high cadence, while flare prediction efforts utilizing this unprecedented data source are still limited. Here we report results of flare prediction using physical parameters provided by the Space-weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARP) and related data products. We survey X-ray flares that occurred from 2010 May to 2016 December and categorize their source regions into four classes (B, C, M, and X) according to the maximum GOES magnitude of flares they generated. We then retrieve SHARP-related parameters for each selected region at the beginning of its flare date to build a database. Finally, we train a machine-learning algorithm, called random forest (RF), to predict the occurrence of a certain class of flares in a given active region within 24 hr, evaluate the classifier performance using the 10-fold cross-validation scheme, and characterize the results using standard performance metrics. Compared to previous works, our experiments indicate that using the HMI parameters and RF is a valid method for flare forecasting with fairly reasonable prediction performance. To our knowledge, this is the first time that RF has been used to make multiclass predictions of solar flares. We also find that the total unsigned quantities of vertical current, current helicity, and flux near the polarity inversion line are among the most important parameters for classifying flaring regions into different classes.

  7. eTOXlab, an open source modeling framework for implementing predictive models in production environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrió, Pau; López, Oriol; Sanz, Ferran; Pastor, Manuel

    2015-01-01

    Computational models based in Quantitative-Structure Activity Relationship (QSAR) methodologies are widely used tools for predicting the biological properties of new compounds. In many instances, such models are used as a routine in the industry (e.g. food, cosmetic or pharmaceutical industry) for the early assessment of the biological properties of new compounds. However, most of the tools currently available for developing QSAR models are not well suited for supporting the whole QSAR model life cycle in production environments. We have developed eTOXlab; an open source modeling framework designed to be used at the core of a self-contained virtual machine that can be easily deployed in production environments, providing predictions as web services. eTOXlab consists on a collection of object-oriented Python modules with methods mapping common tasks of standard modeling workflows. This framework allows building and validating QSAR models as well as predicting the properties of new compounds using either a command line interface or a graphic user interface (GUI). Simple models can be easily generated by setting a few parameters, while more complex models can be implemented by overriding pieces of the original source code. eTOXlab benefits from the object-oriented capabilities of Python for providing high flexibility: any model implemented using eTOXlab inherits the features implemented in the parent model, like common tools and services or the automatic exposure of the models as prediction web services. The particular eTOXlab architecture as a self-contained, portable prediction engine allows building models with confidential information within corporate facilities, which can be safely exported and used for prediction without disclosing the structures of the training series. The software presented here provides full support to the specific needs of users that want to develop, use and maintain predictive models in corporate environments. The technologies used by e

  8. Derivation and validation of a diagnostic score based on case-mix groups to predict 30-day death or urgent readmission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Walraven, Carl; Wong, Jenna; Forster, Alan J

    2012-01-01

    Between 5% and 10% of patients die or are urgently readmitted within 30 days of discharge from hospital. Readmission risk indexes have either excluded acute diagnoses or modelled them as multiple distinct variables. In this study, we derived and validated a score summarizing the influence of acute hospital diagnoses and procedures on death or urgent readmission within 30 days. From population-based hospital abstracts in Ontario, we randomly sampled 200 000 discharges between April 2003 and March 2009 and determined who had been readmitted urgently or died within 30 days of discharge. We used generalized estimating equation modelling, with a sample of 100 000 patients, to measure the adjusted association of various case-mix groups (CMGs-homogenous groups of acute care inpatients with similar clinical and resource-utilization characteristics) with 30-day death or urgent readmission. This final model was transformed into a scoring system that was validated in the remaining 100 000 patients. Patients in the derivation set belonged to 1 of 506 CMGs and had a 6.8% risk of 30-day death or urgent readmission. Forty-seven CMG codes (more than half of which were directly related to chronic diseases) were independently associated with this outcome, which led to a CMG score that ranged from -6 to 7 points. The CMG score was significantly associated with 30-day death or urgent readmission (unadjusted odds ratio for a 1-point increase in CMG score 1.52, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.49-1.56). Alone, the CMG score was only moderately discriminative (C statistic 0.650, 95% CI 0.644-0.656). However, when the CMG score was added to a validated risk index for death or readmission, the C statistic increased to 0.759 (95% CI 0.753-0.765). The CMG score was well calibrated for 30-day death or readmission. In this study, we developed a scoring system for acute hospital diagnoses and procedures that could be used as part of a risk-adjustment methodology for analyses of postdischarge

  9. Births and deaths including fetal deaths

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Access to a variety of United States birth and death files including fetal deaths: Birth Files, 1968-2009; 1995-2005; Fetal death file, 1982-2005; Mortality files,...

  10. Resummation prediction on the jet mass spectrum in one-jet inclusive production at the LHC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Ze Long; Li, Chong Sheng; Wang, Jian; Wang, Yan

    2015-01-01

    We study the factorization and resummation prediction on the jet mass spectrum in one-jet inclusive production at the LHC based on soft-collinear effective theory. The soft function with anti-k T algorithm is calculated at next-to-leading order and its validity is demonstrated by checking the agreement between the expanded leading singular terms with the exact fixed-order result. The large logarithms ln n (m J 2 /p T 2 ) and the global logarithms ln n (s 4 /p T 2 ) in the process are resummed to all order at next-to-leading logarithmic and next-to-next-to-leading logarithmic level, respectively. The cross section is enhanced by about 23% from the next-to-leading logarithmic level to next-to-next-to-leading logarithmic level. Comparing our resummation predictions with those from Monte Carlo tool PYTHIA and ATLAS data at the 7 TeV LHC, we find that the peak positions of the jet mass spectra agree with those from PYTHIA at parton level, and the predictions of the jet mass spectra with non-perturbative effects are in coincidence with the ATLAS data. We also show the predictions at the future 13 TeV LHC.

  11. Resummation prediction on the jet mass spectrum in one-jet inclusive production at the LHC

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Ze Long [School of Physics and State Key Laboratory of Nuclear Physics and Technology,Peking University,Beijing 100871 (China); Li, Chong Sheng [School of Physics and State Key Laboratory of Nuclear Physics and Technology,Peking University,Beijing 100871 (China); Center for High Energy Physics, Peking University,Beijing 100871 (China); Wang, Jian [PRISMA Cluster of Excellence Mainz Institute for Theoretical Physics,Johannes Gutenberg University,D-55099 Mainz (Germany); Wang, Yan [School of Physics and State Key Laboratory of Nuclear Physics and Technology,Peking University,Beijing 100871 (China)

    2015-04-01

    We study the factorization and resummation prediction on the jet mass spectrum in one-jet inclusive production at the LHC based on soft-collinear effective theory. The soft function with anti-k{sub T} algorithm is calculated at next-to-leading order and its validity is demonstrated by checking the agreement between the expanded leading singular terms with the exact fixed-order result. The large logarithms ln{sup n}(m{sub J}{sup 2}/p{sub T}{sup 2}) and the global logarithms ln{sup n}(s{sub 4}/p{sub T}{sup 2}) in the process are resummed to all order at next-to-leading logarithmic and next-to-next-to-leading logarithmic level, respectively. The cross section is enhanced by about 23% from the next-to-leading logarithmic level to next-to-next-to-leading logarithmic level. Comparing our resummation predictions with those from Monte Carlo tool PYTHIA and ATLAS data at the 7 TeV LHC, we find that the peak positions of the jet mass spectra agree with those from PYTHIA at parton level, and the predictions of the jet mass spectra with non-perturbative effects are in coincidence with the ATLAS data. We also show the predictions at the future 13 TeV LHC.

  12. Predictive control of hollow-fiber bioreactors for the production of monoclonal antibodies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dowd, J E; Weber, I; Rodriguez, B; Piret, J M; Kwok, K E

    1999-05-20

    The selection of medium feed rates for perfusion bioreactors represents a challenge for process optimization, particularly in bioreactors that are sampled infrequently. When the present and immediate future of a bioprocess can be adequately described, predictive control can minimize deviations from set points in a manner that can maximize process consistency. Predictive control of perfusion hollow-fiber bioreactors was investigated in a series of hybridoma cell cultures that compared operator control to computer estimation of feed rates. Adaptive software routines were developed to estimate the current and predict the future glucose uptake and lactate production of the bioprocess at each sampling interval. The current and future glucose uptake rates were used to select the perfusion feed rate in a designed response to deviations from the set point values. The routines presented a graphical user interface through which the operator was able to view the up-to-date culture performance and assess the model description of the immediate future culture performance. In addition, fewer samples were taken in the computer-estimated cultures, reducing labor and analytical expense. The use of these predictive controller routines and the graphical user interface decreased the glucose and lactate concentration variances up to sevenfold, and antibody yields increased by 10% to 43%. Copyright 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

  13. A CBR-Based and MAHP-Based Customer Value Prediction Model for New Product Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Yu-Jie; Luo, Xin-xing; Deng, Li

    2014-01-01

    In the fierce market environment, the enterprise which wants to meet customer needs and boost its market profit and share must focus on the new product development. To overcome the limitations of previous research, Chan et al. proposed a dynamic decision support system to predict the customer lifetime value (CLV) for new product development. However, to better meet the customer needs, there are still some deficiencies in their model, so this study proposes a CBR-based and MAHP-based customer value prediction model for a new product (C&M-CVPM). CBR (case based reasoning) can reduce experts' workload and evaluation time, while MAHP (multiplicative analytic hierarchy process) can use actual but average influencing factor's effectiveness in stimulation, and at same time C&M-CVPM uses dynamic customers' transition probability which is more close to reality. This study not only introduces the realization of CBR and MAHP, but also elaborates C&M-CVPM's three main modules. The application of the proposed model is illustrated and confirmed to be sensible and convincing through a stimulation experiment. PMID:25162050

  14. Prediction of fission product and aerosol behaviour during a postulated severe accident in a LWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guentay, S.; Aeby, F.; Raguin, M.; Passalacqua, R.

    1990-02-01

    Lack of appropriate energy removal causes fuel elements in a reactor core to overheat and may eventually cause core to degrade. Fission products will be emitted from a degraded reactor core. Aerosols are generated when the vapours of various fuel and structural materials reach a cold environment and nucleate. In addition to the fission products release and aerosol generation taking place in the reactor vessel, some more fission products release and aerosol generation will occur when the molten core debris leaves the pressure vessel bottom head and comes in contact with the pedestal concrete floor. Fission products, if they are released to environment from the containment boundary, exert a great danger to public health. A source term is defined as the quantity, timing, and characteristics of the release of radionuclide material to the environment following a postulated severe accident. At PSI a considerable effort hase been spent in investigating and establishing a source term assessment methodology in order to predict the source term for a given Light Water Reactor (LWR) accident scenario. This report introduces the computer programs and the methods associated with the release of the fission products, generation of the aerosols and behaviour of the aerosols in LWR compartments used for a source term assessment analysis at PSI. (author) 4 figs., 5 tabs., 28 refs

  15. Mathematical model for predicting molecular-beam epitaxy growth rates for wafer production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shi, B.Q.

    2003-01-01

    An analytical mathematical model for predicting molecular-beam epitaxy (MBE) growth rates is reported. The mathematical model solves the mass-conservation equation for liquid sources in conical crucibles and predicts the growth rate by taking into account the effect of growth source depletion on the growth rate. Assumptions made for deducing the analytical model are discussed. The model derived contains only one unknown parameter, the value of which can be determined by using data readily available to MBE growers. Procedures are outlined for implementing the model in MBE production of III-V compound semiconductor device wafers. Results from use of the model to obtain targeted layer compositions and thickness of InP-based heterojunction bipolar transistor wafers are presented

  16. Status of the observed and predicted b anti-b production at the Tevatron

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Happacher, F.; Giromini, P.; /Frascati; Ptohos, F.; /Cyprus U.

    2005-09-01

    The authors review the experimental status of the b-quark production at the Fermilab Tevatron. They compare all available measurements to perturbative QCD predictions (NLO and FONLL) and also to the parton-level cross section evaluated with parton-shower Monte Carlo generators. They examine both the single b cross section and the so called b{bar b} correlations. The review shows that the experimental situation is quite complicated because the measurements appear to be inconsistent among themselves. In this situation, there is no solid basis to either claim that perturbative QCD is challenged by these measurements or, in contrast, that long-standing discrepancies between data and theory have been resolved by incrementally improving the measurements and the theoretical prediction.

  17. Computational and experimental prediction of dust production in pebble bed reactors, Part II

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hiruta, Mie; Johnson, Gannon [Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Idaho, 1776 Science Center Drive, Idaho Falls, ID 83401 (United States); Rostamian, Maziar, E-mail: mrostamian@asme.org [Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Idaho, 1776 Science Center Drive, Idaho Falls, ID 83401 (United States); Potirniche, Gabriel P. [Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Idaho, 1776 Science Center Drive, Idaho Falls, ID 83401 (United States); Ougouag, Abderrafi M. [Idaho National Laboratory, 2525 N Fremont Avenue, Idaho Falls, ID 83401 (United States); Bertino, Massimo; Franzel, Louis [Department of Physics, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA 23284 (United States); Tokuhiro, Akira [Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Idaho, 1776 Science Center Drive, Idaho Falls, ID 83401 (United States)

    2013-10-15

    Highlights: • Custom-built high temperature, high pressure tribometer is designed. • Two different wear phenomena at high temperatures are observed. • Experimental wear results for graphite are presented. • The graphite wear dust production in a typical Pebble Bed Reactor is predicted. -- Abstract: This paper is the continuation of Part I, which describes the high temperature and high pressure helium environment wear tests of graphite–graphite in frictional contact. In the present work, it has been attempted to simulate a Pebble Bed Reactor core environment as compared to Part I. The experimental apparatus, which is a custom-designed tribometer, is capable of performing wear tests at PBR relevant higher temperatures and pressures under a helium environment. This environment facilitates prediction of wear mass loss of graphite as dust particulates from the pebble bed. The experimental results of high temperature helium environment are used to anticipate the amount of wear mass produced in a pebble bed nuclear reactor.

  18. Vegetative biomass predicts inflorescence production along a CO2 concentration gradient in mesic grassland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fay, P. A.; Collins, H.; Polley, W.

    2016-12-01

    Atmospheric CO2 concentration will likely exceed 500 µL L-1 by 2050, often increasing plant community productivity in part by increasing abundance of species favored by increased CA . Whether increased abundance translates to increased inflorescence production is poorly understood, and is important because it indicates the potential effects of CO2 enrichment on genetic variability and the potential for evolutionary change in future generations. We examined whether the responses of inflorescence production to CO2 enrichment in four C4 grasses and a C3 forb were predicted their vegetative biomass, and by soil moisture, soil nitrogen, or light availability. Inflorescence production was studied in a long-term CO2 concentration gradient spanning pre-industrial to anticipated mid-21st century values (250 - 500 µL L-1) maintained on clay, silty clay and sandy loam soils common in the U.S. Southern Plains. We expected that CO2 enrichment would increase inflorescence production, and more so with higher water, nitrogen, or light availability. However, structural equation modeling revealed that vegetative biomass was the single consistent direct predictor of flowering for all species (p grass) and Solidago canadensis (C3 forb), direct CO2 effects on flowering were only weakly mediated by indirect effects of soil water content and soil NO3-N availability. For the decreasing species (Bouteloua curtipendula, C4 grass), the negative CO2-flowering relationship was cancelled (p = 0.39) by indirect effects of increased SWC and NO3-N on clay and silty clay soils. For the species with no CO2 response, inflorescence production was predicted only by direct water content (p grass) or vegetative biomass (p = 0.0009, Tridens albescens, C4 grass) effects. Light availability was unrelated to inflorescence production. Changes in inflorescence production are thus closely tied to direct and indirect effects of CO2 enrichment on vegetative biomass, and may either increase, decrease, or leave

  19. Implementation of Cyber-Physical Production Systems for Quality Prediction and Operation Control in Metal Casting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JuneHyuck Lee

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The prediction of internal defects of metal casting immediately after the casting process saves unnecessary time and money by reducing the amount of inputs into the next stage, such as the machining process, and enables flexible scheduling. Cyber-physical production systems (CPPS perfectly fulfill the aforementioned requirements. This study deals with the implementation of CPPS in a real factory to predict the quality of metal casting and operation control. First, a CPPS architecture framework for quality prediction and operation control in metal-casting production was designed. The framework describes collaboration among internet of things (IoT, artificial intelligence, simulations, manufacturing execution systems, and advanced planning and scheduling systems. Subsequently, the implementation of the CPPS in actual plants is described. Temperature is a major factor that affects casting quality, and thus, temperature sensors and IoT communication devices were attached to casting machines. The well-known NoSQL database, HBase and the high-speed processing/analysis tool, Spark, are used for IoT repository and data pre-processing, respectively. Many machine learning algorithms such as decision tree, random forest, artificial neural network, and support vector machine were used for quality prediction and compared with R software. Finally, the operation of the entire system is demonstrated through a CPPS dashboard. In an era in which most CPPS-related studies are conducted on high-level abstract models, this study describes more specific architectural frameworks, use cases, usable software, and analytical methodologies. In addition, this study verifies the usefulness of CPPS by estimating quantitative effects. This is expected to contribute to the proliferation of CPPS in the industry.

  20. Implementation of Cyber-Physical Production Systems for Quality Prediction and Operation Control in Metal Casting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, JuneHyuck; Noh, Sang Do; Kim, Hyun-Jung; Kang, Yong-Shin

    2018-01-01

    The prediction of internal defects of metal casting immediately after the casting process saves unnecessary time and money by reducing the amount of inputs into the next stage, such as the machining process, and enables flexible scheduling. Cyber-physical production systems (CPPS) perfectly fulfill the aforementioned requirements. This study deals with the implementation of CPPS in a real factory to predict the quality of metal casting and operation control. First, a CPPS architecture framework for quality prediction and operation control in metal-casting production was designed. The framework describes collaboration among internet of things (IoT), artificial intelligence, simulations, manufacturing execution systems, and advanced planning and scheduling systems. Subsequently, the implementation of the CPPS in actual plants is described. Temperature is a major factor that affects casting quality, and thus, temperature sensors and IoT communication devices were attached to casting machines. The well-known NoSQL database, HBase and the high-speed processing/analysis tool, Spark, are used for IoT repository and data pre-processing, respectively. Many machine learning algorithms such as decision tree, random forest, artificial neural network, and support vector machine were used for quality prediction and compared with R software. Finally, the operation of the entire system is demonstrated through a CPPS dashboard. In an era in which most CPPS-related studies are conducted on high-level abstract models, this study describes more specific architectural frameworks, use cases, usable software, and analytical methodologies. In addition, this study verifies the usefulness of CPPS by estimating quantitative effects. This is expected to contribute to the proliferation of CPPS in the industry. PMID:29734699

  1. Impact of different satellite soil moisture products on the predictions of a continuous distributed hydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laiolo, P.; Gabellani, S.; Campo, L.; Silvestro, F.; Delogu, F.; Rudari, R.; Pulvirenti, L.; Boni, G.; Fascetti, F.; Pierdicca, N.; Crapolicchio, R.; Hasenauer, S.; Puca, S.

    2016-06-01

    The reliable estimation of hydrological variables in space and time is of fundamental importance in operational hydrology to improve the flood predictions and hydrological cycle description. Nowadays remotely sensed data can offer a chance to improve hydrological models especially in environments with scarce ground based data. The aim of this work is to update the state variables of a physically based, distributed and continuous hydrological model using four different satellite-derived data (three soil moisture products and a land surface temperature measurement) and one soil moisture analysis to evaluate, even with a non optimal technique, the impact on the hydrological cycle. The experiments were carried out for a small catchment, in the northern part of Italy, for the period July 2012-June 2013. The products were pre-processed according to their own characteristics and then they were assimilated into the model using a simple nudging technique. The benefits on the model predictions of discharge were tested against observations. The analysis showed a general improvement of the model discharge predictions, even with a simple assimilation technique, for all the assimilation experiments; the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient was increased from 0.6 (relative to the model without assimilation) to 0.7, moreover, errors on discharge were reduced up to the 10%. An added value to the model was found in the rainfall season (autumn): all the assimilation experiments reduced the errors up to the 20%. This demonstrated that discharge prediction of a distributed hydrological model, which works at fine scale resolution in a small basin, can be improved with the assimilation of coarse-scale satellite-derived data.

  2. Implementation of Cyber-Physical Production Systems for Quality Prediction and Operation Control in Metal Casting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, JuneHyuck; Noh, Sang Do; Kim, Hyun-Jung; Kang, Yong-Shin

    2018-05-04

    The prediction of internal defects of metal casting immediately after the casting process saves unnecessary time and money by reducing the amount of inputs into the next stage, such as the machining process, and enables flexible scheduling. Cyber-physical production systems (CPPS) perfectly fulfill the aforementioned requirements. This study deals with the implementation of CPPS in a real factory to predict the quality of metal casting and operation control. First, a CPPS architecture framework for quality prediction and operation control in metal-casting production was designed. The framework describes collaboration among internet of things (IoT), artificial intelligence, simulations, manufacturing execution systems, and advanced planning and scheduling systems. Subsequently, the implementation of the CPPS in actual plants is described. Temperature is a major factor that affects casting quality, and thus, temperature sensors and IoT communication devices were attached to casting machines. The well-known NoSQL database, HBase and the high-speed processing/analysis tool, Spark, are used for IoT repository and data pre-processing, respectively. Many machine learning algorithms such as decision tree, random forest, artificial neural network, and support vector machine were used for quality prediction and compared with R software. Finally, the operation of the entire system is demonstrated through a CPPS dashboard. In an era in which most CPPS-related studies are conducted on high-level abstract models, this study describes more specific architectural frameworks, use cases, usable software, and analytical methodologies. In addition, this study verifies the usefulness of CPPS by estimating quantitative effects. This is expected to contribute to the proliferation of CPPS in the industry.

  3. Short communication: Genetic study of methane production predicted from milk fat composition in dairy cows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Engelen, S; Bovenhuis, H; Dijkstra, J; van Arendonk, J A M; Visker, M H P W

    2015-11-01

    Dairy cows produce enteric methane, a greenhouse gas with 25 times the global warming potential of CO2. Breeding could make a permanent, cumulative, and long-term contribution to methane reduction. Due to a lack of accurate, repeatable, individual methane measurements needed for breeding, indicators of methane production based on milk fatty acids have been proposed. The aim of the present study was to quantify the genetic variation for predicted methane yields. The milk fat composition of 1,905 first-lactation Dutch Holstein-Friesian cows was used to investigate 3 different predicted methane yields (g/kg of DMI): Methane1, Methane2, and Methane3. Methane1 was based on the milk fat proportions of C17:0anteiso, C18:1 rans-10+11, C18:1 cis-11, and C18:1 cis-13 (R(2)=0.73). Methane2 was based on C4:0, C18:0, C18:1 trans-10+11, and C18:1 cis-11 (R(2)=0.70). Methane3 was based on C4:0, C6:0, and C18:1 trans-10+11 (R(2)=0.63). Predicted methane yields were demonstrated to be heritable traits, with heritabilities between 0.12 and 0.44. Breeding can, thus, be used to decrease methane production predicted based on milk fatty acids. Copyright © 2015 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Evaluating and predicting the effectiveness of farmland consolidation on improving agricultural productivity in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiang, Xiaomin; Gan, Le; Yang, Xuhong; Zhang, Zhihong; Zhou, Yinkang

    2018-01-01

    Food security has always been a focus issue in China. Farmland consolidation (FC) was regarded as a critical way to increase the quantity and improve the quality of farmland to ensure food security by Chinese government. FC projects have been nationwide launched, however few studies focused on evaluating the effectiveness of FC at a national scale. As such, an efficient way to evaluate the effectiveness of FC on improving agricultural productivity in China will be needed and it is critical for future national land consolidation planning. In this study, we selected 7505 FC projects completed between 2006 and 2013 with good quality Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as samples to evaluate the effectiveness of FC. We used time-series Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer NDVI from 2001 to 2013, to extract four indicators to characterize agricultural productivity change of 4442 FC projects completed between 2006 and 2010, i.e., productivity level (PL), productivity variation (PV), productivity potential (PP), and multi-cropping index (MI). On this basis, we further predicted the same four characteristics for 3063 FC projects completed between 2011 and 2013, respectively, using Support Vector Machines (SVM). We found FC showed an overall effective status on improving agricultural productivity between 2006 and 2013 in China, especially on upgrading PL and improving PP. The positive effect was more prominent in the southeast and eastern China. It is noteworthy that 27.30% of all the 7505 projects were still ineffective on upgrading PL, the elementary improvement of agricultural productivity. Finally, we proposed that location-specific factors should be taken into consideration for launching FC projects and diverse financial sources are also needed for supporting FC. The results provide a reference for government to arrange FC projects reasonably and to formulate land consolidation planning in a proper way that better improve the effectiveness of FC

  5. Evaluating and predicting the effectiveness of farmland consolidation on improving agricultural productivity in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Yeting; Jin, Xiaobin; Xiang, Xiaomin; Gan, Le; Yang, Xuhong; Zhang, Zhihong; Zhou, Yinkang

    2018-01-01

    Food security has always been a focus issue in China. Farmland consolidation (FC) was regarded as a critical way to increase the quantity and improve the quality of farmland to ensure food security by Chinese government. FC projects have been nationwide launched, however few studies focused on evaluating the effectiveness of FC at a national scale. As such, an efficient way to evaluate the effectiveness of FC on improving agricultural productivity in China will be needed and it is critical for future national land consolidation planning. In this study, we selected 7505 FC projects completed between 2006 and 2013 with good quality Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as samples to evaluate the effectiveness of FC. We used time-series Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer NDVI from 2001 to 2013, to extract four indicators to characterize agricultural productivity change of 4442 FC projects completed between 2006 and 2010, i.e., productivity level (PL), productivity variation (PV), productivity potential (PP), and multi-cropping index (MI). On this basis, we further predicted the same four characteristics for 3063 FC projects completed between 2011 and 2013, respectively, using Support Vector Machines (SVM). We found FC showed an overall effective status on improving agricultural productivity between 2006 and 2013 in China, especially on upgrading PL and improving PP. The positive effect was more prominent in the southeast and eastern China. It is noteworthy that 27.30% of all the 7505 projects were still ineffective on upgrading PL, the elementary improvement of agricultural productivity. Finally, we proposed that location-specific factors should be taken into consideration for launching FC projects and diverse financial sources are also needed for supporting FC. The results provide a reference for government to arrange FC projects reasonably and to formulate land consolidation planning in a proper way that better improve the effectiveness of FC.

  6. Evolving chemometric models for predicting dynamic process parameters in viscose production

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cernuda, Carlos [Department of Knowledge-Based Mathematical Systems, Johannes Kepler University Linz (Austria); Lughofer, Edwin, E-mail: edwin.lughofer@jku.at [Department of Knowledge-Based Mathematical Systems, Johannes Kepler University Linz (Austria); Suppan, Lisbeth [Kompetenzzentrum Holz GmbH, St. Peter-Str. 25, 4021 Linz (Austria); Roeder, Thomas; Schmuck, Roman [Lenzing AG, 4860 Lenzing (Austria); Hintenaus, Peter [Software Research Center, Paris Lodron University Salzburg (Austria); Maerzinger, Wolfgang [i-RED Infrarot Systeme GmbH, Linz (Austria); Kasberger, Juergen [Recendt GmbH, Linz (Austria)

    2012-05-06

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Quality assurance of process parameters in viscose production. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Automatic prediction of spin-bath concentrations based on FTNIR spectra. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Evolving chemometric models for efficiently handling changing system dynamics over time (no time-intensive re-calibration needed). Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Significant reduction of huge errors produced by statistical state-of-the-art calibration methods. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Sufficient flexibility achieved by gradual forgetting mechanisms. - Abstract: In viscose production, it is important to monitor three process parameters in order to assure a high quality of the final product: the concentrations of H{sub 2}SO{sub 4}, Na{sub 2}SO{sub 4} and Z{sub n}SO{sub 4}. During on-line production these process parameters usually show a quite high dynamics depending on the fiber type that is produced. Thus, conventional chemometric models, which are trained based on collected calibration spectra from Fourier transform near infrared (FT-NIR) measurements and kept fixed during the whole life-time of the on-line process, show a quite imprecise and unreliable behavior when predicting the concentrations of new on-line data. In this paper, we are demonstrating evolving chemometric models which are able to adapt automatically to varying process dynamics by updating their inner structures and parameters in a single-pass incremental manner. These models exploit the Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy model architecture, being able to model flexibly different degrees of non-linearities implicitly contained in the mapping between near infrared spectra (NIR) and reference values. Updating the inner structures is achieved by moving the position of already existing local regions and by evolving (increasing non-linearity) or merging (decreasing non-linearity) new local linear predictors on demand, which are guided by distance-based and similarity criteria. Gradual

  7. Predicting online product sales via online reviews, sentiments, and promotion strategies

    OpenAIRE

    Chong, Alain Yee Loong; Li, Boying; Ngai, Eric W.T.; Ch'ng, Eugene; Lee, Filbert

    2016-01-01

    Purpose\\ud – The purpose of this paper is to investigate if online reviews (e.g. valence and volume), online promotional strategies (e.g. free delivery and discounts) and sentiments from user reviews can help predict product sales.\\ud \\ud Design/methodology/approach\\ud – The authors designed a big data architecture and deployed Node.js agents for scraping the Amazon.com pages using asynchronous input/output calls. The completed web crawling and scraping data sets were then preprocessed for se...

  8. An efficient model for predicting mixing lengths in serial pumping of petroleum products

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baptista, Renan Martins [PETROBRAS S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Centro de Pesquisas. Div. de Explotacao]. E-mail: renan@cenpes.petrobras.com.br; Rachid, Felipe Bastos de Freitas [Universidade Federal Fluminense, Niteroi, RJ (Brazil). Dept. de Engenharia Mecanica]. E-mail: rachid@mec.uff.br; Araujo, Jose Henrique Carneiro de [Universidade Federal Fluminense, Niteroi, RJ (Brazil). Dept. de Ciencia da Computacao]. E-mail: jhca@dcc.ic.uff.br

    2000-07-01

    This paper presents a new model for estimating mixing volumes which arises in batching transfers in multi product pipelines. The novel features of the model are the incorporation of the flow rate variation with time and the use of a more precise effective dispersion coefficient, which is considered to depend on the concentration. The governing equation of the model forms a non linear initial value problem that is solved by using a predictor corrector finite difference method. A comparison among the theoretical predictions of the proposed model, a field test and other classical procedures show that it exhibits the best estimate over the whole range of admissible concentrations investigated. (author)

  9. Improvement of bottom-quark associated Higgs-boson production predictions for LHC using HERA data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andrii, Gizhko; Achim, Geiser [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron, Hamburg (Germany)

    2016-07-01

    The dependence of the inclusive total cross section of the bottom-quark associated Higgs-boson production predictions at the LHC, pp → (b anti b)H+X on the treatment of the beauty quark mass is studied in the context of CMS measurements. For two different schemes (four flavour scheme (4FS) and five flavour scheme (5FS)) the theoretical uncertainty due to the beauty quark mass is estimated, and the potential improvement arising from a QCD analysis of HERA beauty data is demonstrated.

  10. Towards precise predictions for Higgs-boson production in the MSSM

    CERN Document Server

    Bagnaschi, E; Liebler, S; Mantler, H; Slavich, P; Vicini, A

    2014-01-01

    We study the production of scalar and pseudoscalar Higgs bosons via gluon fusion and bottom-quark annihilation in the MSSM. Relying on the NNLO-QCD calculation implemented in the public code SusHi, we provide precise predictions for the Higgs-production cross section in six benchmark scenarios compatible with the LHC searches. We also provide a detailed discussion of the sources of theoretical uncertainty in our calculation. We examine the dependence of the cross section on the renormalization and factorization scales, on the precise definition of the Higgs-bottom coupling and on the choice of PDFs, as well as the uncertainties associated to our incomplete knowledge of the SUSY contributions through NNLO. In particular, a potentially large uncertainty originates from uncomputed higher-order QCD corrections to the bottom-quark contributions to gluon fusion.

  11. Fully-differential NNLO predictions for vector-boson pair production with MATRIX

    CERN Document Server

    Wiesemann, Marius; Kallweit, Stefan; Rathlev, Dirk

    2016-01-01

    We review the computations of the next-to-next-to-leading order (NNLO) QCD corrections to vector-boson pair production processes in proton–proton collisions and their implementation in the numerical code MATRIX. Our calculations include the leptonic decays of W and Z bosons, consistently taking into account all spin correlations, off-shell effects and non-resonant contributions. For massive vector-boson pairs we show inclusive cross sections, applying the respective mass windows chosen by ATLAS and CMS to define Z bosons from their leptonic decay products, as well as total cross sections for stable bosons. Moreover, we provide samples of differential distributions in fiducial phase-space regions inspired by typical selection cuts used by the LHC experiments. For the vast majority of measurements, the inclusion of NNLO corrections significantly improves the agreement of the Standard Model predictions with data.

  12. Co-digestion of solid waste: Towards a simple model to predict methane production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kouas, Mokhles; Torrijos, Michel; Schmitz, Sabine; Sousbie, Philippe; Sayadi, Sami; Harmand, Jérôme

    2018-04-01

    Modeling methane production is a key issue for solid waste co-digestion. Here, the effect of a step-wise increase in the organic loading rate (OLR) on reactor performance was investigated, and four new models were evaluated to predict methane yields using data acquired in batch mode. Four co-digestion experiments of mixtures of 2 solid substrates were conducted in semi-continuous mode. Experimental methane yields were always higher than the BMP values of mixtures calculated from the BMP of each substrate, highlighting the importance of endogenous production (methane produced from auto-degradation of microbial community and generated solids). The experimental methane productions under increasing OLRs corresponded well to the modeled data using the model with constant endogenous production and kinetics identified at 80% from total batch time. This model provides a simple and useful tool for technical design consultancies and plant operators to optimize the co-digestion and the choice of the OLRs. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. NLO QCD predictions for Z+γ + jets production with Sherpa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krause, Johannes; Siegert, Frank

    2018-02-01

    We present precise predictions for prompt photon production in association with a Z boson and jets. They are obtained within the Sherpa framework as a consistently merged inclusive sample. Leptonic decays of the Z boson are fully included in the calculation with all off-shell effects. Virtual matrix elements are provided by OpenLoops and parton-shower effects are simulated with a dipole parton shower. Thanks to the NLO QCD corrections included not only for inclusive Zγ production but also for the Zγ + 1-jet process we find significantly reduced systematic uncertainties and very good agreement with experimental measurements at √{s}=8 TeV. Predictions at √{s}=13 TeV are displayed including a study of theoretical uncertainties. In view of an application of these simulations within LHC experiments, we discuss in detail the necessary combination with a simulation of the Z + jets final state. In addition to a corresponding prescription we introduce recommended cross checks to avoid common pitfalls during the overlap removal between the two samples.

  14. Soymilk plant simulation to predict the formula of a new Hypothetical Product

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iacobi Boanerges Boanerges

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Ideal Patterns reactors alteration by real reactor patterns, for better accuracy was done using industrial software: Aspen Plus and Hysys Version 7.1 to represent the batch real mixer and soymilk production system. Fluid package for properties prediction was chosen from the software list. A feed steam of 41,67 Kg/h (Soybean was taken; mass fractions were given by element since the Soybean has a wide blend of substances which cannot be described as a unique compound formula. The elements were C, N, H, O, S, Na, K, Mg, Ca, Fe, P, and Cu. Final flow of 8,333 Kg/h was used to achieve the objective of this study: the elemental analysis method for the hypothetical new product prediction (based only in presence of Amino-acids and other macro and multiple substances. The macromolecules described here are the onset for new specific soymilk compounds such as the concluded on this study. Fulminic Acid Family compound and the protein analysis may correspond to new proteins which are not well-known such as the ones found in studies by the Hospital de Rhode Island in 2014. Presence of Fe and Cu in soybean was ascribed to the micronutrients that could be present in the soil of crop cultivation and in soybeans by absorption.

  15. Predictive factors of user acceptance on the primary educational mathematics aids product

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hidayah, I.; Margunani; Dwijanto

    2018-03-01

    Mathematics learning in primary schools requires instructional media. According to Piaget's theory, students are still in the concrete operational stage. For this reason, the development of the primary level mathematics aids is needed to support the development of successful mathematics learning. The stages of this research are the stages of commercialization with preparatory, marketing, and measurement analysis procedures. Promotion as part of marketing is done by doing a demonstration to the teacher. Measurements were performed to explore the predictive factors of user feasibility in adopting the product. Measurements were conducted using the concept of Technology Acceptance Model (TAM). Measurement variables include external variables, perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, attitude, intention to use, and actual use. The result of this research shows that the contribution of predictive factors of mathematics teachers on the teaching aids product as follows: the external variable and perceived ease of use at 74%, perceived usefulness at 72%, intention to use (behavioral) at 58%, attitude at 52%, and the consequence factor (actual use) at 42%.

  16. Product unit neural network models for predicting the growth limits of Listeria monocytogenes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valero, A; Hervás, C; García-Gimeno, R M; Zurera, G

    2007-08-01

    A new approach to predict the growth/no growth interface of Listeria monocytogenes as a function of storage temperature, pH, citric acid (CA) and ascorbic acid (AA) is presented. A linear logistic regression procedure was performed and a non-linear model was obtained by adding new variables by means of a Neural Network model based on Product Units (PUNN). The classification efficiency of the training data set and the generalization data of the new Logistic Regression PUNN model (LRPU) were compared with Linear Logistic Regression (LLR) and Polynomial Logistic Regression (PLR) models. 92% of the total cases from the LRPU model were correctly classified, an improvement on the percentage obtained using the PLR model (90%) and significantly higher than the results obtained with the LLR model, 80%. On the other hand predictions of LRPU were closer to data observed which permits to design proper formulations in minimally processed foods. This novel methodology can be applied to predictive microbiology for describing growth/no growth interface of food-borne microorganisms such as L. monocytogenes. The optimal balance is trying to find models with an acceptable interpretation capacity and with good ability to fit the data on the boundaries of variable range. The results obtained conclude that these kinds of models might well be very a valuable tool for mathematical modeling.

  17. Encouraging prediction during production facilitates subsequent comprehension: Evidence from interleaved object naming in sentence context and sentence reading

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hintz, F.; Meyer, A.S.; Hüttig, F.

    2016-01-01

    Many studies have shown that a supportive context facilitates language comprehension. A currently influential view is that language production may support prediction in language comprehension. Experimental evidence for this, however, is relatively sparse. Here we explored whether encouraging

  18. Biosensor Technology Reveals the Disruption of the Endothelial Barrier Function and the Subsequent Death of Blood Brain Barrier Endothelial Cells to Sodium Azide and Its Gaseous Products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kho, Dan T; Johnson, Rebecca H; O'Carroll, Simon J; Angel, Catherine E; Graham, E Scott

    2017-09-21

    Herein we demonstrate the sensitive nature of human blood-brain barrier (BBB) endothelial cells to sodium azide and its gaseous product. Sodium azide is known to be acutely cytotoxic at low millimolar concentrations, hence its use as a biological preservative (e.g., in antibodies). Loss of barrier integrity was noticed in experiments using Electric Cell-substrate Impedance Sensing (ECIS) biosensor technology, to measure endothelial barrier integrity continuously in real-time. Initially the effect of sodium azide was observed as an artefact where it was present in antibodies being employed in neutralisation experiments. This was confirmed where antibody clones that were azide-free did not mediate loss of barrier function. A delayed loss of barrier function in neighbouring wells implied the influence of a liberated gaseous product. ECIS technology demonstrated that the BBB endothelial cells had a lower level of direct sensitivity to sodium azide of ~3 µM. Evidence of gaseous toxicity was consistently observed at 30 µM and above, with disrupted barrier function and cell death in neighbouring wells. We highlight the ability of this cellular biosensor technology to reveal both the direct and gaseous toxicity mediated by sodium azide. The sensitivity and temporal dimension of ECIS technology was instrumental in these observations. These findings have substantial implications for the wide use of sodium azide in biological reagents, raising issues of their application in live-cell assays and with regard to the protection of the user. This research also has wider relevance highlighting the sensitivity of brain endothelial cells to a known mitochondrial disruptor. It is logical to hypothesise that BBB endothelial dysfunction due to mitochondrial dys-regulation could have an important but underappreciated role in a range of neurological diseases.

  19. Evaluating the utility of subjective effects measures for predicting product sampling, enrollment, and retention in a clinical trial of a smokeless tobacco product.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connor, Richard J; Lindgren, Bruce R; Schneller, Liane M; Shields, Peter G; Hatsukami, Dorothy K

    2018-01-01

    Subjective effects of drugs, representing pharmacological and non-pharmacological effects, have been shown to be associated with future use and abuse. This also is the case for tobacco products and so measuring subjective effects, such as liking, satisfaction, and aversion, is crucial to gaining an understanding of consumer perception leading to increased use. This study examined the predictive validity of subjective drug and product effects with respect to product adoption. Smokers (N=151) were enrolled in Minneapolis, Columbus, and Buffalo. Participants were shown two snus products (Camel Snus Winterchill and Robust), asked to try each of the products for 5min and to rate them using the Product Evaluation Scale (PES) and Drug Effects Questionnaire (DEQ). This was followed by a one-week use period of their preferred product and those who used at least 1 unit of Camel Snus per day (or at least 7 pouches total) were eligible to enroll in the Clinical Trial Phase assessing the impact of complete switching or dual use with smoking. Key outcomes for this study were product evaluation, extent of product use, and Clinical Trial enrollment. We noted no relationships between participant characteristics such as gender, age, prior smokeless use, baseline cigarettes per day (CPD), or PES and DEQ scores with any of these outcome variables. Subjective effects were weak predictors of product use, which totaled approximately 3units of snus per day. Regardless of product, it appears that PES and DEQ ratings were uniformly poor predictors of trial enrollment and retention, though they do predict the amount of snus used during the sampling phase. Findings indicate that while subjective effects predict product preference in the short-term, they did not consistently predict extent of use or enrollment in the trial, suggesting that these initial measures have limited implications for long-term behavior. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  20. Climate Change Effects on Agricultural Production of Iran: II. Predicting Productivity of Field Crops and Adaptation Strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A Koocheki

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Introduction Recent evidences confirm that during the next few decades, many agroclimatic indices of Iran would be affected by global climate change. Koocheki et al. using two General Circulation Models showed that the mean annual temperature of the country will increase between 3.5-4.5°C while mean precipitation will reduce by 7-15% to 2050. It is well established that crop growth and development would drastically affect by the future global warming and its consequences because yield determining processes such as photosynthesis and crop phenology are directly related to temperature. On the other hands, the combined effects of CO2 enrichment and temperature rise on crop growth are complicated and should be studied using crop simulation models. Furthermore, adapting to climatic variability will have a substantially greater effect in reducing impacts than willing mitigation. However, such impacts on crop productivity at national scale and adaptive measures for future conditions are rarely studied in Iran. In this research crop development and yield of wheat, corn, chickpea and sugar beet were simulated for the target year of 2050 and the results are compared with the current yield as the baseline. Materials and Methods Future climatic variables were predicted using A1f (business as usual scenario by GFDL general circulation model and the results were used as weather inputs in the SUCROS model which was previously validated against measured data of the four crops. To account for the effect of CO2 enrichment on crop growth the photosynthesis routine of the model was adopted for increased CO2 concentration using a scaling factor. Changes in developmental stages of each crop were estimated for the future conditions and the relation between duration of these stages and yield was determined. Predicted crop yields for the year 2050 were compared with the current potential yields considering some adaptation strategies. Results and Discussion Results

  1. Manufactering of par-fried french-fries. Part 3: a blueprint to predict the maximum production yield

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Somsen, D.J.; Capelle, A.; Tramper, J.

    2004-01-01

    Very little research on the production yield of par-fried French-fries has been reported in the literature. This paper bridges the knowledge gap and outlines the development of a model to predict the maximum production yield of par-fried French-fries. This yield model can be used to calculate the

  2. Water column productivity and temperature predict coral reef regeneration across the Indo-Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riegl, B.; Glynn, P. W.; Wieters, E.; Purkis, S.; D'Angelo, C.; Wiedenmann, J.

    2015-02-01

    Predicted increases in seawater temperatures accelerate coral reef decline due to mortality by heat-driven coral bleaching. Alteration of the natural nutrient environment of reef corals reduces tolerance of corals to heat and light stress and thus will exacerbate impacts of global warming on reefs. Still, many reefs demonstrate remarkable regeneration from past stress events. This paper investigates the effects of sea surface temperature (SST) and water column productivity on recovery of coral reefs. In 71 Indo-Pacific sites, coral cover changes over the past 1-3 decades correlated negative-exponentially with mean SST, chlorophyll a, and SST rise. At six monitoring sites (Persian/Arabian Gulf, Red Sea, northern and southern Galápagos, Easter Island, Panama), over half of all corals were coral reefs presently have the best chances for survival. However, reefs best buffered against temperature and nutrient effects are those that current studies suggest to be most at peril from future ocean acidification.

  3. Back to the Roots: Prediction of Biologically Active Natural Products from Ayurveda Traditional Medicine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Polur, Honey; Joshi, Tejal; Workman, Christopher

    2011-01-01

    Ayurveda, the traditional Indian medicine is one of the most ancient, yet living medicinal traditions. In the present work, we developed an in silico library of natural products from Ayurveda medicine, coupled with structural information, plant origin and traditional therapeutic use. Following this....... We hereby present a number of examples where the traditional medicinal use of the plant matches with the medicinal use of the drug that is structurally similar to a plant component. With this approach, we have brought to light a number of obscure compounds of natural origin (e.g. kanugin......, we compared their structures with those of drugs from DrugBank and we constructed a structural similarity network. Information on the traditional therapeutic use of the plants was integrated in the network in order to provide further evidence for the predicted biologically active natural compounds...

  4. Decision support system in Predicting the Best teacher with Multi Atribute Decesion Making Weighted Product (MADMWP Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Solikhun Solikhun

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Predicting of the best teacher in Indonesia aims to spur the development of the growth and improve the quality of the education. In this paper, the predicting  of the best teacher is implemented based on predefined criteria. To help the predicting process, a decision support system is needed. This paper employs Multi Atribute Decesion Making Weighted Product (MADMWP method. The result of this method is tested some teachers in  junior high school islamic boarding Al-Barokah school, Simalungun, North Sumatera, Indonesia. This system can be used to help in solving problems of the best teacher prediction.

  5. Predicting hemispheric dominance for language production in healthy individuals using support vector machine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zago, Laure; Hervé, Pierre-Yves; Genuer, Robin; Laurent, Alexandre; Mazoyer, Bernard; Tzourio-Mazoyer, Nathalie; Joliot, Marc

    2017-12-01

    We used a Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier to assess hemispheric pattern of language dominance of 47 individuals categorized as non-typical for language from their hemispheric functional laterality index (HFLI) measured on a sentence minus word-list production fMRI-BOLD contrast map. The SVM classifier was trained at discriminating between Dominant and Non-Dominant hemispheric language production activation pattern on a group of 250 participants previously identified as Typicals (HFLI strongly leftward). Then, SVM was applied to each hemispheric language activation pattern of 47 non-typical individuals. The results showed that at least one hemisphere (left or right) was found to be Dominant in every, except 3 individuals, indicating that the "dominant" type of functional organization is the most frequent in non-typicals. Specifically, left hemisphere dominance was predicted in all non-typical right-handers (RH) and in 57.4% of non-typical left-handers (LH). When both hemisphere classifications were jointly considered, four types of brain patterns were observed. The most often predicted pattern (51%) was left-dominant (Dominant left-hemisphere and Non-Dominant right-hemisphere), followed by right-dominant (23%, Dominant right-hemisphere and Non-Dominant left-hemisphere) and co-dominant (19%, 2 Dominant hemispheres) patterns. Co-non-dominant was rare (6%, 2 Non-Dominant hemispheres), but was normal variants of hemispheric specialization. In RH, only left-dominant (72%) and co-dominant patterns were detected, while for LH, all types were found, although with different occurrences. Among the 10 LH with a strong rightward HFLI, 8 had a right-dominant brain pattern. Whole-brain analysis of the right-dominant pattern group confirmed that it exhibited a functional organization strictly mirroring that of left-dominant pattern group. Hum Brain Mapp 38:5871-5889, 2017. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  6. Precise predictions for the angular coefficients in Z-boson production at the LHC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gauld, R.; Gehrmann-De Ridder, A.; Gehrmann, T.; Glover, E. W. N.; Huss, A.

    2017-11-01

    The angular distributions of lepton pairs in the Drell-Yan process can provide rich information on the underlying QCD production mechanisms. These dynamics can be parameterised in terms of a set of frame dependent angular coefficients, A i=0,…,7, which depend on the invariant mass, transverse momentum, and rapidity of the lepton pair. Motivated by recent measurements of these coefficients by ATLAS and CMS, and in particular by the apparent violation of the Lam-Tung relation A 0 - A 2 = 0, we perform a precision study of the angular coefficients at O({α}s^3) in perturbative QCD. We make predic-tions relevant for pp collisions at √{s}=8 TeV, and perform comparisons with the available ATLAS and CMS data as well as providing predictions for a prospective measurement at LHCb. To expose the violation of the Lam-Tung relationship we propose a new observable ΔLT = 1 - A 2 /A 0 that is more sensitive to the dynamics in the region where A 0 and A 2 are both small. We find that the O({α}s^3) corrections have an important impact on the p T,Z distributions for several of the angular coefficients, and are essential to provide an adequate description of the data. The compatibility of the available ATLAS and CMS data is reassessed by performing a partial χ 2 test with respect to the central theoretical prediction which shows that χ 2 /N data is significantly reduced by going from O({α}s^2) to O({α}s^3).

  7. Troponin T, N-terminal pro natriuretic peptide and a patent ductus arteriosus scoring system predict death before discharge or neurodevelopmental outcome at 2 years in preterm infants.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    El-Khuffash, Afif F

    2011-03-01

    There is little consensus regarding the use of echocardiography in patent ductus arteriosus (PDA) treatment in preterm infants. The use of troponin T (cTnT) and N-terminal Pro-BNP (NTpBNP) in combination with echocardiography assessment may facilitate the development of a superior predictive model.

  8. Usefulness of Serial N-terminal Pro-B-type Natriuretic Peptide Measurements to Predict Cardiac Death in Acute and Chronic Dilated Cardiomyopathy in Children

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boer, S.L. den; Rizopoulos, D.; Sarvaas, G.J.; Backx, A.P.; Harkel, A.D. Ten; Iperen, G.G. van; Rammeloo, L.A.; Tanke, R.B.; Boersma, E.; Helbing, W.A.; Dalinghaus, M.

    2016-01-01

    N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) is an important predictor of outcome in adults with heart failure. In children with heart failure secondary to dilated cardiomyopathy (DC) markers that reliably predict disease progression and outcome during follow-up are scarce. We investigated

  9. Using Bayesian methods to predict climate impacts on groundwater availability and agricultural production in Punjab, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russo, T. A.; Devineni, N.; Lall, U.

    2015-12-01

    Lasting success of the Green Revolution in Punjab, India relies on continued availability of local water resources. Supplying primarily rice and wheat for the rest of India, Punjab supports crop irrigation with a canal system and groundwater, which is vastly over-exploited. The detailed data required to physically model future impacts on water supplies agricultural production is not readily available for this region, therefore we use Bayesian methods to estimate hydrologic properties and irrigation requirements for an under-constrained mass balance model. Using measured values of historical precipitation, total canal water delivery, crop yield, and water table elevation, we present a method using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to solve for a distribution of values for each unknown parameter in a conceptual mass balance model. Due to heterogeneity across the state, and the resolution of input data, we estimate model parameters at the district-scale using spatial pooling. The resulting model is used to predict the impact of precipitation change scenarios on groundwater availability under multiple cropping options. Predicted groundwater declines vary across the state, suggesting that crop selection and water management strategies should be determined at a local scale. This computational method can be applied in data-scarce regions across the world, where water resource management is required to resolve competition between food security and available resources in a changing climate.

  10. arXiv Addendum to: Predictions for Higgs production at the Tevatron and the associated uncertainties

    CERN Document Server

    Baglio, Julien

    2010-01-01

    We update the theoretical predictions for the production cross sections of the Standard Model Higgs boson at the Fermilab Tevatron collider, focusing on the two main search channels, the gluon-gluon fusion mechanism $gg \\to H$ and the Higgs-strahlung processes $q \\bar q \\to VH$ with $V=W/Z$, including all relevant higher order QCD and electroweak corrections in perturbation theory. We then estimate the various uncertainties affecting these predictions: the scale uncertainties which are viewed as a measure of the unknown higher order effects, the uncertainties from the parton distribution functions and the related errors on the strong coupling constant, as well as the uncertainties due to the use of an effective theory approach in the determination of the radiative corrections in the $gg \\to H$ process at next-to-next-to-leading order. We find that while the cross sections are well under control in the Higgs--strahlung processes, the theoretical uncertainties are rather large in the case of the gluon-gluon fus...

  11. Metabotypes with properly functioning mitochondria and anti-inflammation predict extended productive life span in dairy cows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huber, K.; Dänicke, S.; Rehage, J.; Sauerwein, H.; Otto, W.; Rolle-Kampczyk, U.; von Bergen, M.

    2016-01-01

    The failure to adapt metabolism to the homeorhetic demands of lactation is considered as a main factor in reducing the productive life span of dairy cows. The so far defined markers of production performance and metabolic health in dairy cows do not predict the length of productive life span satisfyingly. This study aimed to identify novel pathways and biomarkers related to productive life in dairy cows by means of (targeted) metabolomics. In a longitudinal study from 42 days before up to 100 days after parturition, we identified metabolites such as long-chain acylcarnitines and biogenic amines associated with extended productive life spans. These metabolites are mainly secreted by the liver and depend on the functionality of hepatic mitochondria. The concentrations of biogenic amines and some acylcarnitines differed already before the onset of lactation thus indicating their predictive potential for continuation or early ending of productive life. PMID:27089826

  12. Predictive analytics as an essential mechanism for situational awareness at the ATLAS Production System

    CERN Document Server

    Titov, Mikhail; The ATLAS collaboration

    2017-01-01

    The workflow management process should be under the control of the certain service that is able to forecast the processing time dynamically according to the status of the processing environment and workflow itself, and to react immediately on any abnormal behaviour of the execution process. Such situational awareness analytic service would provide the possibility to monitor the execution process, to detect the source of any malfunction, and to optimize the management process. The stated service for the second generation of the ATLAS Production System (ProdSys2, an automated scheduling system) is based on predictive analytics approach to estimate the duration of the data processings (in terms of ProdSys2, it is task and chain of tasks) with later usage in decision making processes. Machine learning ensemble methods are chosen to estimate completion time (i.e., “Time To Complete”, TTC) for every (production) task and chain of tasks, thus “abnormal” task processing times would warn about possible failure...

  13. Fibrinogen cleavage products and Toll-like receptor 4 promote the generation of programmed cell death 1 ligand 2-positive dendritic cells in allergic asthma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, Minkyoung; Lee, Jeong-Eun; Lim, Hoyong; Shin, Hyun-Woo; Khalmuratova, Roza; Choi, Garam; Kim, Hyuk Soon; Choi, Wahn Soo; Park, Young-Jun; Shim, Inbo; Kim, Byung-Seok; Kang, Chang-Yuil; Kim, Jae-Ouk; Tanaka, Shinya; Kubo, Masato; Chung, Yeonseok

    2017-10-14

    Inhaled protease allergens preferentially trigger T H 2-mediated inflammation in allergic asthma. The role of dendritic cells (DCs) on induction of T H 2 cell responses in allergic asthma has been well documented; however, the mechanism by which protease allergens induce T H 2-favorable DCs in the airway remains unclear. We sought to determine a subset of DCs responsible for T H 2 cell responses in allergic asthma and the mechanism by which protease allergens induce the DC subset in the airway. Mice were challenged intranasally with protease allergens or fibrinogen cleavage products (FCPs) to induce allergic airway inflammation. DCs isolated from mediastinal lymph nodes were analyzed for surface phenotype and T-cell stimulatory function. Anti-Thy1.2 and Mas-TRECK mice were used to deplete innate lymphoid cells and mast cells, respectively. Adoptive cell transfer, bone marrow DC culture, anti-IL-13, and Toll-like receptor (TLR) 4-deficient mice were used for further mechanistic studies. Protease allergens induced a remarkable accumulation of T H 2-favorable programmed cell death 1 ligand 2 (PD-L2) + DCs in mediastinal lymph nodes, which was significantly abolished in mice depleted of mast cells and, to a lesser extent, innate lymphoid cells. Mechanistically, FCPs generated by protease allergens triggered IL-13 production from wild-type mast cells but not from TLR4-deficient mast cells, which resulted in an increase in the number of PD-L2 + DCs. Intranasal administration of FCPs induced an increase in numbers of PD-L2 + DCs in the airway, which was significantly abolished in TLR4- and mast cell-deficient mice. Injection of IL-13 restored the PD-L2 + DC population in mice lacking mast cells. Our findings unveil the "protease-FCP-TLR4-mast cell-IL-13" axis as a molecular mechanism for generation of T H 2-favorable PD-L2 + DCs in allergic asthma and suggest that targeting the PD-L2 + DC pathway might be effective in suppressing allergic T-cell responses in the airway

  14. Prediction of the production of nitrogen oxide (NOx) in turbojet engines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsague, Louis; Tsogo, Joseph; Tatietse, Thomas Tamo

    Gaseous nitrogen oxides (NO+NO2=NOx) are known as atmospheric trace constituent. These gases remain a big concern despite the advances in low NOx emission technology because they play a critical role in regulating the oxidization capacity of the atmosphere according to Crutzen [1995. My life with O 3, NO x and other YZO x S; Nobel Lecture; Chemistry 1995; pp 195; December 8, 1995] . Aircraft emissions of nitrogen oxides ( NOx) are regulated by the International Civil Aviation Organization. The prediction of NOx emission in turbojet engines by combining combustion operational data produced information showing correlation between the analytical and empirical results. There is close similarity between the calculated emission index and experimental data. The correlation shows improved accuracy when the 2124 experimental data from 11 gas turbine engines are evaluated than a previous semi empirical correlation approach proposed by Pearce et al. [1993. The prediction of thermal NOx in gas turbine exhausts. Eleventh International Symposium on Air Breathing Engines, Tokyo, 1993, pp. 6-9]. The new method we propose predict the production of NOx with far more improved accuracy than previous methods. Since a turbojet engine works in an atmosphere where temperature, pressure and humidity change frequently, a correction factor is developed with standard atmospheric laws and some correlations taken from scientific literature [Swartwelder, M., 2000. Aerospace engineering 410 Term Project performance analysis, November 17, 2000, pp. 2-5; Reed, J.A. Java Gas Turbine Simulator Documentation. pp. 4-5]. The new correction factor is validated with experimental observations from 19 turbojet engines cruising at altitudes of 9 and 13 km given in the ICAO repertory [Middleton, D., 1992. Appendix K (FAA/SETA). Section 1: Boeing Method Two Indices, 1992, pp. 2-3]. This correction factor will enable the prediction of cruise NOx emissions of turbojet engines at cruising speeds. The ICAO

  15. Analysis of the High-Frequency Content in Human QRS Complexes by the Continuous Wavelet Transform: An Automatized Analysis for the Prediction of Sudden Cardiac Death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García Iglesias, Daniel; Roqueñi Gutiérrez, Nieves; De Cos, Francisco Javier; Calvo, David

    2018-02-12

    Fragmentation and delayed potentials in the QRS signal of patients have been postulated as risk markers for Sudden Cardiac Death (SCD). The analysis of the high-frequency spectral content may be useful for quantification. Forty-two consecutive patients with prior history of SCD or malignant arrhythmias (patients) where compared with 120 healthy individuals (controls). The QRS complexes were extracted with a modified Pan-Tompkins algorithm and processed with the Continuous Wavelet Transform to analyze the high-frequency content (85-130 Hz). Overall, the power of the high-frequency content was higher in patients compared with controls (170.9 vs. 47.3 10³nV²Hz -1 ; p = 0.007), with a prolonged time to reach the maximal power (68.9 vs. 64.8 ms; p = 0.002). An analysis of the signal intensity (instantaneous average of cumulative power), revealed a distinct function between patients and controls. The total intensity was higher in patients compared with controls (137.1 vs. 39 10³nV²Hz -1 s -1 ; p = 0.001) and the time to reach the maximal intensity was also prolonged (88.7 vs. 82.1 ms; p content of the QRS complexes was distinct between patients at risk of SCD and healthy controls. The wavelet transform is an efficient tool for spectral analysis of the QRS complexes that may contribute to stratification of risk.

  16. Integration of artificial intelligence methods and life cycle assessment to predict energy output and environmental impacts of paddy production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nabavi-Pelesaraei, Ashkan; Rafiee, Shahin; Mohtasebi, Seyed Saeid; Hosseinzadeh-Bandbafha, Homa; Chau, Kwok-Wing

    2018-08-01

    Prediction of agricultural energy output and environmental impacts play important role in energy management and conservation of environment as it can help us to evaluate agricultural energy efficiency, conduct crops production system commissioning, and detect and diagnose faults of crop production system. Agricultural energy output and environmental impacts can be readily predicted by artificial intelligence (AI), owing to the ease of use and adaptability to seek optimal solutions in a rapid manner as well as the use of historical data to predict future agricultural energy use pattern under constraints. This paper conducts energy output and environmental impact prediction of paddy production in Guilan province, Iran based on two AI methods, artificial neural networks (ANNs), and adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). The amounts of energy input and output are 51,585.61MJkg -1 and 66,112.94MJkg -1 , respectively, in paddy production. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is used to evaluate environmental impacts of paddy production. Results show that, in paddy production, in-farm emission is a hotspot in global warming, acidification and eutrophication impact categories. ANN model with 12-6-8-1 structure is selected as the best one for predicting energy output. The correlation coefficient (R) varies from 0.524 to 0.999 in training for energy input and environmental impacts in ANN models. ANFIS model is developed based on a hybrid learning algorithm, with R for predicting output energy being 0.860 and, for environmental impacts, varying from 0.944 to 0.997. Results indicate that the multi-level ANFIS is a useful tool to managers for large-scale planning in forecasting energy output and environmental indices of agricultural production systems owing to its higher speed of computation processes compared to ANN model, despite ANN's higher accuracy. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Pathway-Specific Aggregate Biomarker Risk Score Is Associated With Burden of Coronary Artery Disease and Predicts Near-Term Risk of Myocardial Infarction and Death

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ghasemzedah, Nima; Hayek, Salim; Ko, Yi-An

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Inflammation, coagulation, and cell stress contribute to atherosclerosis and its adverse events. A biomarker risk score (BRS) based on the circulating levels of biomarkers C-reactive protein, fibrin degradation products, and heat shock protein-70 representing these 3 pathways was a st...

  18. Pre-Antiretroviral Therapy Serum Selenium Concentrations Predict WHO Stages 3, 4 or Death but not Virologic Failure Post-Antiretroviral Therapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rupak Shivakoti

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available A case-cohort study, within a multi-country trial of antiretroviral therapy (ART efficacy (Prospective Evaluation of Antiretrovirals in Resource Limited Settings (PEARLS, was conducted to determine if pre-ART serum selenium deficiency is independently associated with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV disease progression after ART initiation. Cases were HIV-1 infected adults with either clinical failure (incident World Health Organization (WHO stage 3, 4 or death by 96 weeks or virologic failure by 24 months. Risk factors for serum selenium deficiency (<85 μg/L pre-ART and its association with outcomes were examined. Median serum selenium concentration was 82.04 μg/L (Interquartile range (IQR: 57.28–99.89 and serum selenium deficiency was 53%, varying widely by country from 0% to 100%. In multivariable models, risk factors for serum selenium deficiency were country, previous tuberculosis, anemia, and elevated C-reactive protein. Serum selenium deficiency was not associated with either clinical failure or virologic failure in multivariable models. However, relative to people in the third quartile (74.86–95.10 μg/L of serum selenium, we observed increased hazards (adjusted hazards ratio (HR: 3.50; 95% confidence intervals (CI: 1.30–9.42 of clinical failure but not virologic failure for people in the highest quartile. If future studies confirm this relationship of high serum selenium with increased clinical failure, a cautious approach to selenium supplementation might be needed, especially in HIV-infected populations with sufficient or unknown levels of selenium.

  19. Predictions of the product compositions for combustion or gasification of biomass and others hydrocarbons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rocha, Hendrick Maxil Zarate; Itai, Yuu; Nogueira, Manoel Fernandes Martins; Moraes, Sinfronio Brito; Rocha, Brigida Ramati Pereira da [Universidade Federal do Para (UFPA), Belem, PA (Brazil). Faculdade de Engenharia Mecanica]. E-mails: hendrick@ufpa.br; yuuitai@ufpa.br; mfmn@ufpa.br; sbrito@ufpa.br; brigida@ufpa.br

    2008-07-01

    Processes involving combustion and gasification are object of study of many researchers. To simulate these processes in a detailed way, it is necessary to solve equations for chemical kinetics whose resolution many times is difficult due lack of information in the literature a simples way to bypass tis problem is due the chemical equilibrium. Prediction of the flu gases composition through chemical equilibrium is an important step in the mathematical modelling for gasification and combustion processes. Some free programs exists to solve problems that involve the chemical equilibrium, such as STANJAN, CEA, GASEQ, CANTERA and others.These programs have difficulty for cases involving fuel such as: biomass, vegetable oils, biodiesel, natural gas, etc., because they do not have database with the fuel composition and is hard to supply their HHV and their elementary analysis. In this work, using numeric methods, a program was developed to predict the gases composition on equilibrium after combustion and gasification processes with the for constant pressure or volume. In the program the chemical formula of the fuel is defined as C{sub x}H{sub y}O{sub z}N{sub w}S{sub v}A{sub u} that reacts with an gaseous oxidizer composed by O{sub 2}, N{sub 2}, Ar, He, CO{sub 2} e H{sub 2}O to have as final result the composition of the products CO{sub 2}, CO, H{sub 2}O, H{sub 2}, H, OH, O{sub 2}, O, N{sub 2}, NO, SO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4}, Ar, He, and ash. To verify the accuracy of the calculated values, it was compared with the program CEA (developed by NASA) and with experimental data obtained from literature. (author)

  20. Ozone phytotoxicity evaluation and prediction of crops production in tropical regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammed, Nurul Izma; Ramli, Nor Azam; Yahya, Ahmad Shukri

    2013-04-01

    Increasing ozone concentration in the atmosphere can threaten food security due to its effects on crop production. Since the 1980s, ozone has been believed to be the most damaging air pollutant to crops. In Malaysia, there is no index to indicate the reduction of crops due to the exposure of ozone. Therefore, this study aimed to identify the accumulated exposure over a threshold of X ppb (AOTX) indexes in assessing crop reduction in Malaysia. In European countries, crop response to ozone exposure is mostly expressed as AOT40. This study was designed to evaluate and predict crop reduction in tropical regions and in particular, the Malaysian climate, by adopting the AOT40 index method and modifying it based on Malaysian air quality and crop data. Nine AOTX indexes (AOT0, AOT5, AOT10, AOT15, AOT20, AOT25, AOT30, AOT40, and AOT50) were analyzed, crop responses tested and reduction in crops predicted. The results showed that the AOT50 resulted in the highest reduction in crops and the highest R2 value between the AOT50 and the crops reduction from the linear regression analysis. Hence, this study suggests that the AOT50 index is the most suitable index to estimate the potential ozone impact on crops in tropical regions. The result showed that the critical level for AOT50 index if the estimated crop reduction is 5% was 1336 ppb h. Additionally, the results indicated that the AOT40 index in Malaysia gave a minimum percentage of 6% crop reduction; as contrasted with the European guideline of 5% (due to differences in the climate e.g., average amount of sunshine).

  1. Geothermal modelling and geoneutrino flux prediction at JUNO with local heat production data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xi, Y.; Wipperfurth, S. A.; McDonough, W. F.; Sramek, O.; Roskovec, B.; He, J.

    2017-12-01

    Geoneutrinos are mostly electron antineutrinos created from natural radioactive decays in the Earth's interior. Measurement of a geoneutrino flux at near surface detector can lead to a better understanding of the composition of the Earth, inform about chemical layering in the mantle, define the power driving mantle convection and plate tectonics, and reveal the energy supplying the geodynamo. JUNO (Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory) is a 20 kton liquid scintillator detector currently under construction with an expected start date in 2020. Due to its enormous mass, JUNO will detect about 400 geoneutrinos per year, making it an ideal tool to study the Earth. JUNO is located on the passive continental margin of South China, where there is an extensive continental shelf. The continental crust surrounding the JUNO detector is between 26 and 32 km thick and represents the transition between the southern Eurasian continental plate and oceanic plate of the South China Sea.We seek to predict the geoneutrino flux at JUNO prior to data taking and announcement of the particle physics measurement. To do so requires a detail survey of the local lithosphere, as it contributes about 50% of the signal. Previous estimates of the geoneutrino signal at JUNO utilized global crustal models, with no local constraints. Regionally, the area is characterized by extensive lateral and vertical variations in lithology and dominated by Mesozoic granite intrusions, with an average heat production of 6.29 μW/m3. Consequently, at 3 times greater heat production than the globally average upper crust, these granites will generate a higher than average geoneutrino flux at JUNO. To better define the U and Th concentrations in the upper crust, we collected some 300 samples within 50 km of JUNO. By combining chemical data obtained from these samples with data for crustal structures defined by local geophysical studies, we will construct a detailed 3D geothermal model of the region. Our

  2. Determination of death: Metaphysical and biomedical discourse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jakušovaitė, Irayda; Luneckaitė, Žydrunė; Peičius, Eimantas; Bagdonaitė, Živilė; Riklikienė, Olga; Stankevičius, Edgaras

    2016-01-01

    The prominence of biomedical criteria relying on brain death reduces the impact of metaphysical, anthropological, psychosocial, cultural, religious, and legal aspects disclosing the real value and essence of human life. The aim of this literature review is to discuss metaphysical and biomedical approaches toward death and their complimentary relationship in the determination of death. A critical appraisal of theoretical and scientific evidence and legal documents supported analytical discourse. In the metaphysical discourse of death, two main questions about what human death is and how to determine the fact of death clearly separate the ontological and epistemological aspects of death. During the 20th century, various understandings of human death distinguished two different approaches toward the human: the human is a subject of activities or a subject of the human being. Extinction of the difference between the entities and the being, emphasized as rational-logical instrumentation, is not sufficient to understand death thoroughly. Biological criteria of death are associated with biological features and irreversible loss of certain cognitive capabilities. Debating on the question "Does a brain death mean death of a human being?" two approaches are considering: the body-centrist and the mind-centrist. By bridging those two alternatives human death appears not only as biomedical, but also as metaphysical phenomenon. It was summarized that a predominance of clinical criteria for determination of death in practice leads to medicalization of death and limits the holistic perspective toward individual's death. Therefore, the balance of metaphysical and biomedical approaches toward death and its determination would decrease the medicalization of the concept of death. Copyright © 2016 The Lithuanian University of Health Sciences. Production and hosting by Elsevier Urban & Partner Sp. z o.o. All rights reserved.

  3. Human lymphoma mutations reveal CARD11 as the switch between self-antigen–induced B cell death or proliferation and autoantibody production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeelall, Yogesh S.; Wang, James Q.; Law, Hsei-Di; Domaschenz, Heather; Fung, Herman K.H.; Kallies, Axel; Nutt, Stephen L.

    2012-01-01

    Self-tolerance and immunity are actively acquired in parallel through a poorly understood ability of antigen receptors to switch between signaling death or proliferation of antigen-binding lymphocytes in different contexts. It is not known whether this tolerance-immunity switch requires global rewiring of the signaling apparatus or if it can arise from a single molecular change. By introducing individual CARD11 mutations found in human lymphomas into antigen-activated mature B lymphocytes in mice, we find here that lymphoma-derived CARD11 mutations switch the effect of self-antigen from inducing B cell death into T cell–independent proliferation, Blimp1-mediated plasmablast differentiation, and autoantibody secretion. Our findings demonstrate that regulation of CARD11 signaling is a critical switch governing the decision between death and proliferation in antigen-stimulated mature B cells and that mutations in this switch represent a powerful initiator for aberrant B cell responses in vivo. PMID:23027925

  4. Programmed death-ligand 1 expression correlates with diminished CD8+ T cell infiltration and predicts poor prognosis in anal squamous cell carcinoma patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhao Y

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Yu-Jie Zhao,1 Wei-Peng Sun,2 Jian-Hong Peng,1 Yu-Xiang Deng,1 Yu-Jing Fang,1 Jun Huang,2 Hui-Zhong Zhang,3 De-Sen Wan,1 Jun-Zhong Lin,1,* Zhi-Zhong Pan,1,* 1Department of Colorectal Surgery, State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Medicine, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, 2Department of Colorectal Surgery, The Sixth Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, 3Department of Pathology, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, Guangzhou, People’s Republic of China *These authors contributed equally to this work Objective: Increased expression of programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1 on tumor cells can be found in various malignancies; however, very limited information is known about its role in anal squamous cell carcinoma (ASCC. This study explored PD-L1 expression in ASCC patients and its association with patients’ clinicopathological features, CD8+ T cell infiltration, and prognosis.Methods: Formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tumor samples from 26 patients with ASCC were retrieved. The levels of PD-L1 expression on the membrane of both tumor cells and tumor-infiltrating mononuclear cells (TIMCs were evaluated by immunohistochemistry. CD8+ T cell densities, both within tumors and at the tumor–stromal interface, were also analyzed. Baseline clinicopathological characteristics, human papilloma virus (HPV status, and outcome data correlated with PD-L1-positive staining.Results: PD-L1 expression on tumor cells and TIMCs was observed in 46% and 50% of patients, respectively. Nineteen patients (73% were HPV positive, with 7 showing PD-L1-positive staining on tumor cells and 9 showing PD-L1-positive staining on TIMCs. Increasing CD8+ density within tumors, but not immune stroma, was significantly associated with decreased PD-L1 expression by both tumor cells and TIMCs (P=0.0043 and P=0.0007. Patients with negative PD-L1 expression had significantly better progression-free survival (P=0.038 and P

  5. Monitoring Food Security Indicators from Remote Sensing and Predicting Cereal Production in Afghanistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pervez, M. S.; Budde, M. E.; Rowland, J.

    2015-12-01

    We extract percent of basin snow covered areas above 2500m elevation from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 500-meter 8-day snow cover composites to monitor accumulation and depletion of snow in the basin. While the accumulation and depletion of snow cover extent provides an indication of the temporal progression of the snow pack, it does not provide insight into available water for irrigation. Therefore, we use snow model results from the National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center to quantify snow water equivalent and volume of water available within the snowpack for irrigation. In an effort to understand how water availability, along with its inter-annual variability, relates to the food security of the country, we develop a simple, effective, and easy-to-implement model to identify irrigated areas across the country on both annual and mid-season basis. The model is based on applying thresholds to peak growing season vegetation indices—derived from 250-meter MODIS images—in a decision-tree classifier to separate irrigated crops from non-irrigated vegetation. The spatial distribution and areal estimates of irrigated areas from these maps compare well with irrigated areas classified from multiple snap shots of the landscape from Landsat 5 optical and thermal images over selected locations. We observed that the extents of irrigated areas varied depending on the availability of snowmelt and can be between 1.35 million hectares in a year with significant water deficit and 2.4 million hectares in a year with significant water surplus. The changes in the amount of available water generally can contribute up to a 30% change in irrigated areas. We also observed that the strong correlation between inter-annual variability of irrigated areas and the variability in the country's cereal production could be utilized to predict an annual estimate of cereal production, providing early indication of food security scenarios for the country.

  6. Predicting the formation and the dispersion of toxic combustion products from the fires of dangerous substances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nevrlý, V.; Bitala, P.; Danihelka, P.; Dobeš, P.; Dlabka, J.; Hejzlar, T.; Baudišová, B.; Míček, D.; Zelinger, Z.

    2012-04-01

    Natural events, such as wildfires, lightning or earthquakes represent a frequent trigger of industrial fires involving dangerous substances. Dispersion of smoke plume from such fires and the effects of toxic combustion products are one of the reference scenarios expected in the framework of major accident prevention. Nowadays, tools for impact assessment of these events are rather missing. Detailed knowledge of burning material composition, atmospheric conditions, and other factors are required in order to describe quantitatively the source term of toxic fire products and to evaluate the parameters of smoke plume. Nevertheless, an assessment of toxic emissions from large scale fires involves a high degree of uncertainty, because of the complex character of physical and chemical processes in the harsh environment of uncontrolled flame. Among the others, soot particle formation can be mentioned as still being one of the unresolved problems in combustion chemistry, as well as decomposition pathways of chemical substances. Therefore, simplified approach for estimating the emission factors from outdoor fires of dangerous chemicals, utilizable for major accident prevention and preparedness, was developed and the case study illustrating the application of the proposed method was performed. ALOFT-FT software tool based on large eddy simulation of buoyant fire plumes was employed for predicting the local toxic contamination in the down-wind vicinity of the fire. The database of model input parameters can be effectively modified enabling the simulation of the smoke plume from pool fires or jet fires of arbitrary flammable (or combustible) gas, liquid or solid. This work was supported by the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic via the project LD11012 (in the frame of the COST CM0901 Action) and the Ministry of Environment of the Czech Republic (project no. SPII 1a10 45/70).

  7. Body mass index predicts aldosterone production in normotensive adults on a high-salt diet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bentley-Lewis, Rhonda; Adler, Gail K; Perlstein, Todd; Seely, Ellen W; Hopkins, Paul N; Williams, Gordon H; Garg, Rajesh

    2007-11-01

    The mechanisms underlying obesity-mediated cardiovascular disease are not fully understood. Aldosterone and insulin resistance both are associated with obesity and cardiovascular disease. The objectives of this study were to test the hypotheses that aldosterone production is elevated and associated with insulin resistance in overweight adults on a high-sodium diet. Healthy normotensive adults were categorized as lean body mass index (BMI) less than 25 kg/m(2) (n = 63) or overweight BMI 25 kg/m(2) or greater (n = 57). After 7 d of a high-sodium diet, participants fasted overnight and remained supine throughout hemodynamic and laboratory assessments and angiotensin II (AngII) stimulation. The overweight group, compared with the lean group, had higher 24-h urinary aldosterone (9.0 +/- 0.8 vs. 6.6 +/- 0.5 microg per 24 h; P = 0.003) and higher AngII-stimulated serum aldosterone (11.4 +/- 1.0 vs. 9.0 +/- 0.6 ng/dl; P = 0.04). There were no differences in 24-h urinary cortisol or sodium or supine measurements of plasma renin activity, serum aldosterone, or serum potassium. The homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance was predicted by urinary aldosterone excretion (r = 0.32, P = 0.03) and serum aldosterone response to AngII stimulation (r = 0.28, P = 0.02) independent of age and BMI. Urinary aldosterone excretion and AngII-stimulated aldosterone are increased in overweight, compared with lean, normotensive adults. The correlation of these measures of aldosterone production with insulin resistance suggests a potential role for aldosterone in the pathophysiology of obesity-mediated insulin resistance.

  8. Particulate organic matter predicts bacterial productivity in a river dominated estuary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crump, B. C.

    2015-12-01

    Estuaries act as coastal filters for organic and inorganic fluvial materials in which microbial, biogeochemical, and ecological processes combine to transform organic matter and nutrients prior to export to the coastal ocean. The function of this estuarine 'bioreactor' is linked to the residence times of those materials and to rates of microbial heterotrophic activity. Our ability to forecast the impact of global change on estuarine bioreactor function requires an understanding of the basic controls on microbial community activity and diversity. In the Columbia River estuary, the microbial community undergoes a dramatic seasonal shift in species composition during which a spring bacterioplankton community, dominated by Flavobacteriaceae and Oceanospirillales, is replaced by a summer community, dominated by Rhodobacteraceae and several common marine taxa. This annual shift occurs in July, following the spring freshet, when river flow and river chlorophyll concentration decrease and when estuarine water residence time increases. Analysis of a large dataset from 17 research cruises (1990-2014) showed that the composition of particulate organic matter in the estuary changes after the freshet with decreasing organic carbon and nitrogen content, and increasing contribution of marine and autochthonous estuarine organic matter (based on PO13C and pigment ratios). Bacterial production rates (measured as leucine or thymidine incorporation rates) in the estuary respond to this change, and correlate strongly with labile particulate nitrogen concentration and temperature during individual sampling campaigns, and with the concentration of chlorophyll in the Columbia River across all seasons. Regression models suggest that the concentration of labile particulate nitrogen and the rate of bacterial production can be predicted from sensor measurements of turbidity, salinity, and temperature in the estuary and chlorophyll in the river. These results suggest that the quality of

  9. Comparison of updates to the Molly cow model to predict methane production from dairy cows fed pasture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregorini, P; Beukes, P C; Hanigan, M D; Waghorn, G; Muetzel, S; McNamara, J P

    2013-08-01

    Molly is a deterministic, mechanistic, dynamic model representing the digestion, metabolism, and production of a dairy cow. This study compared the predictions of enteric methane production from the original version of Molly (MollyOrigin) and 2 new versions of Molly. Updated versions included new ruminal fiber digestive parameters and animal hormonal parameters (Molly84) and a revised version of digestive and ruminal parameters (Molly85), using 3 different ruminal volatile fatty acid (VFA) stoichiometry constructs to describe the VFA pattern and methane (CH4) production (g of CH4/d). The VFA stoichiometry constructs were the original forage and mixed-diet VFA constructs and a new VFA stoichiometry based on a more recent and larger set of data that includes lactate and valerate production, amylolytic and cellulolytic bacteria, as well as protozoal pools. The models' outputs were challenged using data from 16 dairy cattle 26 mo old [standard error of the mean (SEM)=1.7], 82 (SEM=8.7) d in milk, producing 17 (SEM=0.2) kg of milk/d, and fed fresh-cut ryegrass [dry matter intake=12.3 (SEM=0.3) kg of DM/d] in respiration chambers. Mean observed CH4 production was 266±5.6 SEM (g/d). Mean predicted values for CH4 production were 287 and 258 g/d for MollyOrigin without and with the new VFA construct. Model Molly84 predicted 295 and 288 g of CH4/d with and without the new VFA settings. Model Molly85 predicted the same CH4 production (276 g/d) with or without the new VFA construct. The incorporation of the new VFA construct did not consistently reduce the low prediction error across the versions of Molly evaluated in the present study. The improvements in the Molly versions from MollyOrigin to Molly84 to Molly85 resulted in a decrease in mean square prediction error from 8.6 to 8.3 to 4.3% using the forage diet setting. The majority of the mean square prediction error was apportioned to random bias (e.g., 43, 65, and 70% in MollyOrigin, Molly84, and Molly85, respectively, on

  10. Prediction of apparent metabolisable energy content of cereal grains and by-products for poultry from its chemical composition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Losada, B.; Blas, C. de; Garcia-Rebollar, P.; Cachaldora, P.; Mendez, J.; Ibañez, M.

    2015-07-01

    In order to predict the metabolisable energy content of ninety batches of cereal grains and cereal by-products for poultry, regression models derived from different sample aggregations and using chemical components as independent variables were compared. Several statistics have been calculated to estimate the error of prediction. The results indicate that the highest levels of significance and coefficients of determination were obtained for equations derived from the larger data sets. However, the lowest prediction errors were associated to equations calculated for data or groups of data closer to the ingredient studied. (Author)

  11. Ozone production in the reaction of T2 and O2 gas: A comparison of experimental results and model predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Failor, R.A.; Souers, P.C.; Magnotta, F.

    1992-01-01

    Ozone, predicted to be an important intermediate species in T 2 oxidation, was monitored in situ by UV absorption spectroscopy for 0.01-1.0 mol % T 2 in O 2 (1 atm, 298 K). These are the first measurements of a tritium oxidation reaction intermediate. The experimental results were compared with the predictions of the author's comprehensive model of tritium oxidation. The experimentally determined temporal variation in ozone concentration is qualitatively reproduced by the model. As predicted, the measured initial rate of ozone production varied linearly with the initial T 2 concentration ([T 2 ] o ), but with a value one-third of that predicted. The steady-state ozone concentration ([O 3 ] ss ) a factor of 4 larger than predicted for a 1.0% T 2 -O 2 mixture. Addition of H 2 to the T 2 O 2 mixture, to differentiate between the radiolytic and chemical behavior of the tritium, produced a decrease in [O 3 ] ss which was larger than predicted. Changing the reaction cell surface-to-volume ratio showed indications of minor surface removal of ozone. No reasonable variation in model input parameters brought both the predicted initial ozone production rates and steady-state concentrations of ozone into agreement with the experimental results. Though qualitative agreement was achieved, further studies, with emphasis on surface effects, are necessary to explain quantitative differences and gain a greater understanding of the oxidation mechanism. 27 refs., 11 figs., 4 tabs

  12. NLO electroweak automation and precise predictions for W+ multijet production at the LHC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kallweit, S.; Lindert, J.M.; Maierhöfer, P.; Pozzorini, S.; Schönherr, M.

    2015-01-01

    We present a fully automated implementation of next-to-leading order electroweak (NLO EW) corrections in the OPENLOOPS matrix-element generator combined with the SHERPA and MUNICH Monte Carlo frameworks. The process-independent character of the implemented algorithms opens the door to NLO QCD+EW simulations for a vast range of Standard Model processes, up to high particle multiplicity, at current and future colliders. As a first application, we present NLO QCD+EW predictions for the production of positively charged on-shell W bosons in association with up to three jets at the Large Hadron Collider. At the TeV energy scale, due to the presence of large Sudakov logarithms, EW corrections reach the 20–40% level and play an important role for searches of physics beyond the Standard Model. The dependence of NLO EW effects on the jet multiplicity is investigated in detail, and we find that W+ multijet final states feature genuinely different EW effects as compared to the case of W+1 jet.

  13. Predicted irradiation behavior of U3O8-Al dispersion fuels for production reactor applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cronenberg, A.W.; Rest, J.

    1990-01-01

    Candidate fuels for the new heavy-water production reactor include uranium/aluminum alloy and U 3 O 8 -Al dispersion fuels. The U 3 O 8 -Al dispersion fuel would make possible higher uranium loadings and would facilitate uranium recycle. Research efforts on U 3 O 8 -Al fuel include in-pile irradiation studies and development of analytical tools to characterize the behavior of dispersion fuels at high-burnup. In this paper the irradiation performance of U 3 O 8 -Al is assessed using the mechanistic Dispersion Analysis Research Tool (DART) code. Predictions of fuel swelling and alteration of thermal conductivity are presented and compared with experimental data. Calculational results indicate good agreement with available data where the effects of as-fabricated porosity and U 3 O 8 -Al oxygen exchange reactions are shown to exert a controlling influence on irradiation behavior. The DART code is judged to be a useful tool for assessing U 3 O 8 -Al performance over a wide range of irradiation conditions

  14. Water column productivity and temperature predict coral reef regeneration across the Indo-Pacific.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riegl, B; Glynn, P W; Wieters, E; Purkis, S; d'Angelo, C; Wiedenmann, J

    2015-02-05

    Predicted increases in seawater temperatures accelerate coral reef decline due to mortality by heat-driven coral bleaching. Alteration of the natural nutrient environment of reef corals reduces tolerance of corals to heat and light stress and thus will exacerbate impacts of global warming on reefs. Still, many reefs demonstrate remarkable regeneration from past stress events. This paper investigates the effects of sea surface temperature (SST) and water column productivity on recovery of coral reefs. In 71 Indo-Pacific sites, coral cover changes over the past 1-3 decades correlated negative-exponentially with mean SST, chlorophyll a, and SST rise. At six monitoring sites (Persian/Arabian Gulf, Red Sea, northern and southern Galápagos, Easter Island, Panama), over half of all corals were <31 years, implying that measured environmental variables indeed shaped populations and community. An Indo-Pacific-wide model suggests reefs in the northwest and central Indian Ocean, as well as the central west Pacific, are at highest risk of degradation, and those at high latitudes the least. The model pinpoints regions where coral reefs presently have the best chances for survival. However, reefs best buffered against temperature and nutrient effects are those that current studies suggest to be most at peril from future ocean acidification.

  15. Big data driven cycle time parallel prediction for production planning in wafer manufacturing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Junliang; Yang, Jungang; Zhang, Jie; Wang, Xiaoxi; Zhang, Wenjun Chris

    2018-07-01

    Cycle time forecasting (CTF) is one of the most crucial issues for production planning to keep high delivery reliability in semiconductor wafer fabrication systems (SWFS). This paper proposes a novel data-intensive cycle time (CT) prediction system with parallel computing to rapidly forecast the CT of wafer lots with large datasets. First, a density peak based radial basis function network (DP-RBFN) is designed to forecast the CT with the diverse and agglomerative CT data. Second, the network learning method based on a clustering technique is proposed to determine the density peak. Third, a parallel computing approach for network training is proposed in order to speed up the training process with large scaled CT data. Finally, an experiment with respect to SWFS is presented, which demonstrates that the proposed CTF system can not only speed up the training process of the model but also outperform the radial basis function network, the back-propagation-network and multivariate regression methodology based CTF methods in terms of the mean absolute deviation and standard deviation.

  16. A Robust Statistical Model to Predict the Future Value of the Milk Production of Dairy Cows Using Herd Recording Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Græsbøll, Kaare; Kirkeby, Carsten Thure; Nielsen, Søren Saxmose

    2017-01-01

    of the future value of a dairy cow requires further detailed knowledge of the costs associated with feed, management practices, production systems, and disease. Here, we present a method to predict the future value of the milk production of a dairy cow based on herd recording data only. The method consists......The future value of an individual dairy cow depends greatly on its projected milk yield. In developed countries with developed dairy industry infrastructures, facilities exist to record individual cow production and reproduction outcomes consistently and accurately. Accurate prediction...... of somatic cell count. We conclude that estimates of future average production can be used on a day-to-day basis to rank cows for culling, or can be implemented in simulation models of within-herd disease spread to make operational decisions, such as culling versus treatment. An advantage of the approach...

  17. Global modelling to predict timber production and prices: the GFPM approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph Buongiorno

    2014-01-01

    Timber production and prices are determined by the global demand for forest products, and the capability of producers from many countries to grow and harvest trees, transform them into products and export. The Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) simulates how this global demand and supply of multiple products among many countries determines prices and attendant...

  18. Religious characteristics and the death penalty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Monica K; Hayward, R David

    2008-04-01

    Using one mock trial scenario, this study investigated whether religious and demographic factors were related to death penalty attitudes and sentencing verdicts. Those who favored the death penalty differed from those who had doubts about the penalty in gender, affiliation, fundamentalism, evangelism, literal Biblical interpretism, beliefs about God's attitudes toward murders, and perceptions of how their religious groups felt about the death penalty. These relationships generally held after mock jurors were death qualified. Gender, fundamentalism, literal interpretism, beliefs about God's death penalty position, and perceptions of how one's religious group felt about the death penalty predicted death penalty sentencing verdicts. Future research could determine whether using peremptory challenges to exclude potential jurors based on religion can help lawyers choose a more favorable jury.

  19. Exploring the Predictive Validity of the Susceptibility to Smoking Construct for Tobacco Cigarettes, Alternative Tobacco Products, and E-Cigarettes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Adam G; Kennedy, Ryan David; Chaurasia, Ashok; Leatherdale, Scott T

    2017-12-06

    Within tobacco prevention programming, it is useful to identify youth that are at risk for experimenting with various tobacco products and e-cigarettes. The susceptibility to smoking construct is a simple method to identify never-smoking students that are less committed to remaining smoke-free. However, the predictive validity of this construct has not been tested within the Canadian context or for the use of other tobacco products and e-cigarettes. This study used a large, longitudinal sample of secondary school students that reported never using tobacco cigarettes and non-current use of alternative tobacco products or e-cigarettes at baseline in Ontario, Canada. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of the susceptibility construct for predicting tobacco cigarette, e-cigarette, cigarillo or little cigar, cigar, hookah, and smokeless tobacco use one and two years after baseline measurement were calculated. At baseline, 29.4% of the sample was susceptible to future tobacco product or e-cigarette use. The sensitivity of the construct ranged from 43.2% (smokeless tobacco) to 59.5% (tobacco cigarettes), the specificity ranged from 70.9% (smokeless tobacco) to 75.9% (tobacco cigarettes), and the positive predictive value ranged from 2.6% (smokeless tobacco) to 32.2% (tobacco cigarettes). Similar values were calculated for each measure of the susceptibility construct. A significant number of youth that did not currently use tobacco products or e-cigarettes at baseline reported using tobacco products and e-cigarettes over a two-year follow-up period. The predictive validity of the susceptibility construct was high and the construct can be used to predict other tobacco product and e-cigarette use among youth. This study presents the predictive validity of the susceptibility construct for the use of tobacco cigarettes among secondary school students in Ontario, Canada. It also presents a novel use of the susceptibility construct for

  20. Clinical evaluation of MR temperature monitoring of laser-induced thermotherapy in human liver using the proton-resonance-frequency method and predictive models of cell death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kickhefel, Antje; Rosenberg, Christian; Weiss, Clifford R; Rempp, Hansjörg; Roland, Joerg; Schick, Fritz; Hosten, Norbert

    2011-03-01

    To assess the feasibility, precision, and accuracy of real-time temperature mapping (TMap) during laser-induced thermotherapy (LITT) for clinical practice in patients liver with a gradient echo (GRE) sequence using the proton resonance frequency (PRF) method. LITT was performed on 34 lesions in 18 patients with simultaneous real-time visualization of relative temperature changes. Correlative contrast-enhanced T1-weighted magnetic resonance (MR) images of the liver were acquired after treatment using the same slice positions and angulations as TMap images acquired during LITT. For each slice, TMap and follow-up images were registered for comparison. Afterwards, segmentation based on temperature (T) >52°C on TMap and based on necrosis seen on follow-up images was performed. These segmented structures were overlaid and divided into zones where the TMap was found to either over- or underestimate necrosis on the postcontrast images. Regions with T>52°C after 20 minutes were defined as necrotic tissue based on data received from two different thermal dose models. The average intersecting region of TMap and necrotic zone was 87% ± 5%, the overestimated 13% ± 4%, and the underestimated 13% ± 5%. This study demonstrates that MR temperature mapping appears reasonably capable of predicting tissue necrosis on the basis of indicating regions having greater temperatures than 52°C and could be used to monitor and adjust the thermal therapy appropriately during treatment. Copyright © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  1. Prediction of early death among patients enrolled in phase I trials: development and validation of a new model based on platelet count and albumin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ploquin, A; Olmos, D; Lacombe, D; A'Hern, R; Duhamel, A; Twelves, C; Marsoni, S; Morales-Barrera, R; Soria, J-C; Verweij, J; Voest, E E; Schöffski, P; Schellens, J H; Kramar, A; Kristeleit, R S; Arkenau, H-T; Kaye, S B; Penel, N

    2012-09-25

    Selecting patients with 'sufficient life expectancy' for Phase I oncology trials remains challenging. The Royal Marsden Hospital Score (RMS) previously identified high-risk patients as those with ≥ 2 of the following: albumin upper limit of normal; >2 metastatic sites. This study developed an alternative prognostic model, and compared its performance with that of the RMS. The primary end point was the 90-day mortality rate. The new model was developed from the same database as RMS, but it used Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detection (CHAID). The ROC characteristics of both methods were then validated in an independent database of 324 patients enrolled in European Organization on Research and Treatment of Cancer Phase I trials of cytotoxic agents between 2000 and 2009. The CHAID method identified high-risk patients as those with albumin model and RMS, respectively. The negative predictive values (NPV) were similar for the CHAID model and RMS. The CHAID model and RMS provided a similarly high level of NPV, but the CHAID model gave a better accuracy in the validation set. Both CHAID model and RMS may improve the screening process in phase I trials.

  2. Damage to the anterior arcuate fasciculus predicts non-fluent speech production in aphasia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fridriksson, Julius; Guo, Dazhou; Fillmore, Paul; Holland, Audrey; Rorden, Chris

    2013-11-01

    Non-fluent aphasia implies a relatively straightforward neurological condition characterized by limited speech output. However, it is an umbrella term for different underlying impairments affecting speech production. Several studies have sought the critical lesion location that gives rise to non-fluent aphasia. The results have been mixed but typically implicate anterior cortical regions such as Broca's area, the left anterior insula, and deep white matter regions. To provide a clearer picture of cortical damage in non-fluent aphasia, the current study examined brain damage that negatively influences speech fluency in patients with aphasia. It controlled for some basic speech and language comprehension factors in order to better isolate the contribution of different mechanisms to fluency, or its lack. Cortical damage was related to overall speech fluency, as estimated by clinical judgements using the Western Aphasia Battery speech fluency scale, diadochokinetic rate, rudimentary auditory language comprehension, and executive functioning (scores on a matrix reasoning test) in 64 patients with chronic left hemisphere stroke. A region of interest analysis that included brain regions typically implicated in speech and language processing revealed that non-fluency in aphasia is primarily predicted by damage to the anterior segment of the left arcuate fasciculus. An improved prediction model also included the left uncinate fasciculus, a white matter tract connecting the middle and anterior temporal lobe with frontal lobe regions, including the pars triangularis. Models that controlled for diadochokinetic rate, picture-word recognition, or executive functioning also revealed a strong relationship between anterior segment involvement and speech fluency. Whole brain analyses corroborated the findings from the region of interest analyses. An additional exploratory analysis revealed that involvement of the uncinate fasciculus adjudicated between Broca's and global aphasia

  3. Computational prediction of dust production in graphite moderated pebble bed reactors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rostamian, Maziar

    The scope of the work reported here, which is the computational study of graphite wear behavior, supports the Nuclear Engineering University Programs project "Experimental Study and Computational Simulations of Key Pebble Bed Thermomechanics Issues for Design and Safety" funded by the US Department of Energy. In this work, modeling and simulating the contact mechanics, as anticipated in a PBR configuration, is carried out for the purpose of assessing the amount of dust generated during a full power operation year of a PBR. A methodology that encompasses finite element analysis (FEA) and micromechanics of wear is developed to address the issue of dust production and its quantification. Particularly, the phenomenon of wear and change of its rate with sliding length is the main focus of this dissertation. This work studies the wear properties of graphite by simulating pebble motion and interactions of a specific type of nuclear grade graphite, IG-11. This study consists of two perspectives: macroscale stress analysis and microscale analysis of wear mechanisms. The first is a set of FEA simulations considering pebble-pebble frictional contact. In these simulations, the mass of generated graphite particulates due to frictional contact is calculated by incorporating FEA results into Archard's equation, which is a linear correlation between wear mass and wear length. However, the experimental data by Johnson, University of Idaho, revealed that the wear rate of graphite decreases with sliding length. This is because the surfaces of the graphite pebbles become smoother over time, which results in a gradual decrease in wear rate. In order to address the change in wear rate, a more detailed analysis of wear mechanisms at room temperature is presented. In this microscale study, the wear behavior of graphite at the asperity level is studied by simulating the contact between asperities of facing surfaces. By introducing the effect of asperity removal on wear rate, a nonlinear

  4. Advanced MRI assessment to predict benefit of anti-programmed cell death 1 protein immunotherapy response in patients with recurrent glioblastoma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Qin, Lei [Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Department of Imaging, Boston, MA (United States); Harvard Medical School, Department of Radiology, Boston, MA (United States); Li, Xiang; Qu, Jinrong [Affiliated Cancer Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Department of Radiology, Zhengzhou, Henan (China); Brigham and Women' s Hospital, Department of Radiology, Boston, MA (United States); Stroiney, Amanda [Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Department of Imaging, Boston, MA (United States); Northeastern University, Department of Behavioral Neuroscience, College of Sciences, Boston, MA (United States); Helgager, Jeffrey [Brigham and Women' s Hospital, Department of Pathology, Boston, MA (United States); Reardon, David A. [Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, CenterforNeuro-Oncology, Boston, MA (United States); Department of Medicine, Boston, MA (United States); Young, Geoffrey S. [Harvard Medical School, Department of Radiology, Boston, MA (United States); Brigham and Women' s Hospital, Department of Radiology, Boston, MA (United States)

    2017-02-15

    We describe the imaging findings encountered in GBM patients receiving immune checkpoint blockade and assess the potential of quantitative MRI biomarkers to differentiate patients who derive therapeutic benefit from those who do not. A retrospective analysis was performed on longitudinal MRIs obtained on recurrent GBM patients enrolled on clinical trials. Among 10 patients with analyzable data, bidirectional diameters were measured on contrast enhanced T1 (pGd-T1WI) and volumes of interest (VOI) representing measurable abnormality suggestive of tumor were selected on pGdT1WI (pGdT1 VOI), FLAIR-T2WI (FLAIR VOI), and ADC maps. Intermediate ADC (IADC) VOI represented voxels within the FLAIR VOI having ADC in the range of highly cellular tumor (0.7-1.1 x 10{sup -3} mm{sup 2}/s) (IADC VOI). Therapeutic benefit was determined by tissue pathology and survival on trial. IADC VOI, pGdT1 VOI, FLAIR VOI, and RANO assessment results were correlated with patient benefit. Five patients were deemed to have received therapeutic benefit and the other five patients did not. The average time on trial for the benefit group was 194 days, as compared to 81 days for the no benefit group. IADC VOI correlated well with the presence or absence of clinical benefit in 10 patients. Furthermore, pGd VOI, FLAIR VOI, and RANO assessment correlated less well with response. MRI reveals an initial increase in volumes of abnormal tissue with contrast enhancement, edema, and intermediate ADC suggesting hypercellularity within the first 0-6 months of immunotherapy. Subsequent stabilization and improvement in IADC VOI appear to better predict ultimate therapeutic benefit from these agents than conventional imaging. (orig.)

  5. Sudden death in eating disorders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jáuregui-Garrido B

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Beatriz Jáuregui-Garrido1, Ignacio Jáuregui-Lobera2,31Department of Cardiology, University Hospital Virgen del Rocío, 2Behavioral Sciences Institute, 3Pablo de Olavide University, Seville, SpainAbstract: Eating disorders are usually associated with an increased risk of premature death with a wide range of rates and causes of mortality. “Sudden death” has been defined as the abrupt and unexpected occurrence of fatality for which no satisfactory explanation of the cause can be ascertained. In many cases of sudden death, autopsies do not clarify the main cause. Cardiovascular complications are usually involved in these deaths. The purpose of this review was to report an update of the existing literature data on the main findings with respect to sudden death in eating disorders by means of a search conducted in PubMed. The most relevant conclusion of this review seems to be that the main causes of sudden death in eating disorders are those related to cardiovascular complications. The predictive value of the increased QT interval dispersion as a marker of sudden acute ventricular arrhythmia and death has been demonstrated. Eating disorder patients with severe cardiovascular symptoms should be hospitalized. In general, with respect to sudden death in eating disorders, some findings (eg, long-term eating disorders, chronic hypokalemia, chronically low plasma albumin, and QT intervals >600 milliseconds must be taken into account, and it must be highlighted that during refeeding, the adverse effects of hypophosphatemia include cardiac failure. Monitoring vital signs and performing electrocardiograms and serial measurements of plasma potassium are relevant during the treatment of eating disorder patients.Keywords: sudden death, cardiovascular complications, refeeding syndrome, QT interval, hypokalemia

  6. What is the Best Model Specification and Earth Observation Product for Predicting Regional Grain Yields in Food Insecure Countries?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davenport, F., IV; Harrison, L.; Shukla, S.; Husak, G. J.; Funk, C. C.

    2017-12-01

    We evaluate the predictive accuracy of an ensemble of empirical model specifications that use earth observation data to predict sub-national grain yields in Mexico and East Africa. Products that are actively used for seasonal drought monitoring are tested as yield predictors. Our research is driven by the fact that East Africa is a region where decisions regarding agricultural production are critical to preventing the loss of economic livelihoods and human life. Regional grain yield forecasts can be used to anticipate availability and prices of key staples, which can turn can inform decisions about targeting humanitarian response such as food aid. Our objective is to identify-for a given region, grain, and time year- what type of model and/or earth observation can most accurately predict end of season yields. We fit a set of models to county level panel data from Mexico, Kenya, Sudan, South Sudan, and Somalia. We then examine out of sample predicative accuracy using various linear and non-linear models that incorporate spatial and time varying coefficients. We compare accuracy within and across models that use predictor variables from remotely sensed measures of precipitation, temperature, soil moisture, and other land surface processes. We also examine at what point in the season a given model or product is most useful for determining predictive accuracy. Finally we compare predictive accuracy across a variety of agricultural regimes including high intensity irrigated commercial agricultural and rain fed subsistence level farms.

  7. [Prediction of the side-cut product yield of atmospheric/vacuum distillation unit by NIR crude oil rapid assay].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yan-Bin; Hu, Yu-Zhong; Li, Wen-Le; Zhang, Wei-Song; Zhou, Feng; Luo, Zhi

    2014-10-01

    In the present paper, based on the fast evaluation technique of near infrared, a method to predict the yield of atmos- pheric and vacuum line was developed, combined with H/CAMS software. Firstly, the near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy method for rapidly determining the true boiling point of crude oil was developed. With commercially available crude oil spectroscopy da- tabase and experiments test from Guangxi Petrochemical Company, calibration model was established and a topological method was used as the calibration. The model can be employed to predict the true boiling point of crude oil. Secondly, the true boiling point based on NIR rapid assay was converted to the side-cut product yield of atmospheric/vacuum distillation unit by H/CAMS software. The predicted yield and the actual yield of distillation product for naphtha, diesel, wax and residual oil were compared in a 7-month period. The result showed that the NIR rapid crude assay can predict the side-cut product yield accurately. The near infrared analytic method for predicting yield has the advantages of fast analysis, reliable results, and being easy to online operate, and it can provide elementary data for refinery planning optimization and crude oil blending.

  8. A GIS-derived integrated moisture index to predict forest composition and productivity of Ohio forests (U.S.A.)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louis R. Iverson; Martin E. Dale; Charles T. Scott; Anantha Prasad; Anantha Prasad

    1997-01-01

    A geographic information system (GIS) approach was used in conjunction with forest-plot data to develop an integrated moisture index (IMI), which was then used to predict forest productivity (site index) and species composition for forests in Ohio. In this region, typical of eastern hardwoods across the Midwest and southern Appalachians, topographic aspect and position...

  9. A Robust Statistical Model to Predict the Future Value of the Milk Production of Dairy Cows Using Herd Recording Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Græsbøll, Kaare; Kirkeby, Carsten Thure; Nielsen, Søren Saxmose

    2017-01-01

    The future value of an individual dairy cow depends greatly on its projected milk yield. In developed countries with developed dairy industry infrastructures, facilities exist to record individual cow production and reproduction outcomes consistently and accurately. Accurate prediction of the fut...

  10. NNLL-fast: predictions for coloured supersymmetric particle production at the LHC with threshold and Coulomb resummation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beenakker, W.; Borschensky, C.; Krämer, M.; Kulesza, A.; Laenen, E.

    2016-01-01

    We present state-of-the art predictions for the production of supersymmetric squarks and gluinos at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), including soft-gluon resummation up to next-to-next-to-leading logarithmic (NNLL) accuracy, the resummation of Coulomb corrections and the contribution from bound

  11. NNLL-fast : predictions for coloured supersymmetric particle production at the LHC with threshold and Coulomb resummation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beenakker, Wim; Borschensky, Christoph; Krämer, Michael; Kulesza, Anna; Laenen, Eric

    2016-01-01

    We present state-of-the art predictions for the production of supersymmetric squarks and gluinos at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), including soft-gluon resummation up to next-to-next-to-leading logarithmic (NNLL) accuracy, the resummation of Coulomb corrections and the contribution from bound

  12. Early do-not-resuscitate orders in intracerebral haemorrhage; frequency and predictive value for death and functional outcome. A retrospective cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brizzi Marco

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Introduction In former studies from North America early Do-Not–Resuscitate orders (DNR orders in patients with intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH had negative prognostic impact on mortality. The influence of DNR orders on functional outcome and whether DNR orders are grounded on relevant patient characteristics is unknown. We aimed to determine the frequency and predictive factors of DNR-orders and its association to prognosis, in ICH patients, in Scandinavia. Methods In 197 consecutive ICH patients admitted to Skåne University Hospital, Malmö, Sweden, between January 2007 and June 2009, information of the presence of DNR orders within 48 hours, clinical and radiological characteristics was retrieved by review of patient medical journal and computed tomography scans. Determinants of DNR-orders, one-month case fatality and bad functional outcome (modified Rankin Scale, grade 4–6 were assessed by logistic regression analysis. Results DNR orders were made in 41% of the cases. After adjustment for confounding factors, age ≥ 75 years (Odds Ratio (95% confidence interval 4.2(1.8-9.6, former stroke (5.1(1.9-3.1, Reaction Level Scale grade 2–3 and 4 (7.0(2.8-17.5 and (4.1(1.2-13.5, respectively and intraventricular haemorrhage (3.8(1.6-9.4 were independent determinants of early DNR orders. Independent predictors of one-month case fatality was age ≥ 75 years (3.7(1.4-9.6 volume ≥ 30 ml (3.5(1.3-9.6 and DNR orders (3.5(1.5-8.6. Seizure (6.0(1.04-34.2 and brain stem hemorrhage (8.0(1.1-58.4 were related to bad functional outcome, whereas early DNR order was not (3.5(0.99-12.7. Conclusions Well known prognostic factors are determinants for DNR orders, however DNR orders are independently related to one-month case fatality. In addition to improvements of the local routines, we welcome a change of attitude with an enhanced awareness of the definition of, and a more careful approach with respect to DNR orders.

  13. Prediction of Biomass Production and Nutrient Uptake in Land Application Using Partial Least Squares Regression Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vasileios A. Tzanakakis

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR can integrate a great number of variables and overcome collinearity problems, a fact that makes it suitable for intensive agronomical practices such as land application. In the present study a PLSR model was developed to predict important management goals, including biomass production and nutrient recovery (i.e., nitrogen and phosphorus, associated with treatment potential, environmental impacts, and economic benefits. Effluent loading and a considerable number of soil parameters commonly monitored in effluent irrigated lands were considered as potential predictor variables during the model development. All data were derived from a three year field trial including plantations of four different plant species (Acacia cyanophylla, Eucalyptus camaldulensis, Populus nigra, and Arundo donax, irrigated with pre-treated domestic effluent. PLSR method was very effective despite the small sample size and the wide nature of data set (with many highly correlated inputs and several highly correlated responses. Through PLSR method the number of initial predictor variables was reduced and only several variables were remained and included in the final PLSR model. The important input variables maintained were: Effluent loading, electrical conductivity (EC, available phosphorus (Olsen-P, Na+, Ca2+, Mg2+, K2+, SAR, and NO3−-N. Among these variables, effluent loading, EC, and nitrates had the greater contribution to the final PLSR model. PLSR is highly compatible with intensive agronomical practices such as land application, in which a large number of highly collinear and noisy input variables is monitored to assess plant species performance and to detect impacts on the environment.

  14. Predictive Model for Blood Product Use in Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sharif, H.; Ansari, H.Z.; Ashfaq, A.; Rawasia, W.F.; Bano, G.; Hashmi, S.

    2016-01-01

    Objective: To build a clinical predictive model to determine the need for transfusing blood and its products in coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) procedures in South East Asian population. Study Design: Analytical study. Place and Duration of Study: Section of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Aga Khan University Hospital, Karachi, from January 2006 to October 2014. Methodology: Information on pre-, intra- and postoperative variables were collected for all adult patients who underwent on-pump CABG. The patients grouped into those who received blood and its components, and those who did not. A univariate as well as multivariate logistic model was built to determine the predictors of transfusion. Result: A total of 3,550 patients underwent CABG and males were dominant in both groups (75 vs. 93 percent). The transfusion rate was 56.4 percent (n=2001). Age (adjusted OR 1.03, p < 0.001), obesity (1.50, p=0.001), tobacco use (1.29, p=0.001), and male gender (4.51, p < 0.001) found to be a stronger predictor. Among preoperative comorbidities, diabetes (1.20, p=0.016), myocardial infarction (1.22, p=0.009), preoperative creatinine (1.12, p=0.033), and left main vessel disease of > 50 percent (1.49, p < 0.001) were independently associated with the outcome. Compared to elective cases, transfusion rates were high in urgent and emergent cases (OR: 1.93 and 3.36 respectively, p < 0.001 for both). Conclusion: Age, male gender, obesity, tobacco use, diabetes, myocardial infarction, high creatinine, urgent and emergent cases were independent predictors of transfusion in CABG procedure. This model can be utilized for preoperative risk stratification of patients and their management to improve the outcomes. (author)

  15. Mechanistic prediction of fission product release under normal and accident conditions: key uncertainties that need better resolution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rest, J.

    1983-09-01

    A theoretical model has been used for predicting the behavior of fission gas and volatile fission products (VFPs) in UO 2 -base fuels during steady-state and transient conditions. This model represents an attempt to develop an efficient predictive capability for the full range of possible reactor operating conditions. Fission products released from the fuel are assumed to reach the fuel surface by successively diffusing (via atomic and gas-bubble mobility) from the grains to grain faces and then to the grain edges, where the fission products are released through a network of interconnected tunnels of fission-gas induced and fabricated porosity. The model provides for a multi-region calculation and uses only one size class to characterize a distribution of fission gas bubbles

  16. Tic Tac TOE: Effects of Predictability and Importance on Acoustic Prominence in Language Production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Duane G.; Arnold, Jennifer E.; Tanenhaus, Michael K.

    2008-01-01

    Importance and predictability each have been argued to contribute to acoustic prominence. To investigate whether these factors are independent or two aspects of the same phenomenon, naive participants played a verbal variant of Tic Tac Toe. Both importance and predictability contributed independently to the acoustic prominence of a word, but in…

  17. Characterization and Prediction of Chemical Functions and Weight Fractions in Consumer Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assessing exposures from the thousands of chemicals in commerce requires quantitative information on the chemical constituents of consumer products. Unfortunately, gaps in available composition data prevent assessment of exposure to chemicals in many products. Here we propose fil...

  18. Accuracy of the paracetamol-aminotransferase product to predict hepatotoxicity in paracetamol overdose treated with a 2-bag acetylcysteine regimen.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Anselm; Sivilotti, Marco L A; Gunja, Naren; McNulty, Richard; Graudins, Andis

    2018-03-01

    Paracetamol concentration is a highly accurate risk predictor for hepatotoxicity following overdose with known time of ingestion. However, the paracetamol-aminotransferase multiplication product can be used as a risk predictor independent of timing or ingestion type. Validated in patients treated with the traditional, "three-bag" intravenous acetylcysteine regimen, we evaluated the accuracy of the multiplication product in paracetamol overdose treated with a two-bag acetylcysteine regimen. We examined consecutive patients treated with the two-bag regimen from five emergency departments over a two-year period. We assessed the predictive accuracy of initial multiplication product for the primary outcome of hepatotoxicity (peak alanine aminotransferase ≥1000IU/L), as well as for acute liver injury (ALI), defined peak alanine aminotransferase ≥2× baseline and above 50IU/L). Of 447 paracetamol overdoses treated with the two-bag acetylcysteine regimen, 32 (7%) developed hepatotoxicity and 73 (16%) ALI. The pre-specified cut-off points of 1500 mg/L × IU/L (sensitivity 100% [95% CI 82%, 100%], specificity 62% [56%, 67%]) and 10,000 mg/L × IU/L (sensitivity 70% [47%, 87%], specificity of 97% [95%, 99%]) were highly accurate for predicting hepatotoxicity. There were few cases of hepatotoxicity irrespective of the product when acetylcysteine was administered within eight hours of overdose, when the product was largely determined by a high paracetamol concentration but normal aminotransferase. The multiplication product accurately predicts hepatotoxicity when using a two-bag acetylcysteine regimen, especially in patients treated more than eight hours post-overdose. Further studies are needed to assess the product as a method to adjust for exposure severity when testing efficacy of modified acetylcysteine regimens.

  19. An in vitro Method for Predicting Inhalation Toxicity of Impregnation Spray Products

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørli, Jorid B.; Hansen, Jitka S.; Nørgaard, Asger Wisti

    2015-01-01

    Impregnation spray products are used for making surfaces water and dirt repellent. The products are composed of one or more active film-forming components dissolved or suspended in an appropriate solvent mixture. Exposure to impregnation spray products may cause respiratory distress and new cases...

  20. Characterizing the utility of the TMPA real-time product for hydrologic predictions over global river basins across scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, H.; Zhang, S.; Nijssen, B.; Zhou, T.; Voisin, N.; Sheffield, J.; Lee, K.; Shukla, S.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2017-12-01

    Despite its errors and uncertainties, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis real-time product (TMPA-RT) has been widely used for hydrological monitoring and forecasting due to its timely availability for real-time applications. To evaluate the utility of TMPA-RT in hydrologic predictions, many studies have compared modeled streamflows driven by TMPA-RT against gauge data. However, because of the limited availability of streamflow observations in data sparse regions, there is still a lack of comprehensive comparisons for TMPA-RT based hydrologic predictions at the global scale. Furthermore, it is expected that its skill is less optimal at the subbasin scale than the basin scale. In this study, we evaluate and characterize the utility of the TMPA-RT product over selected global river basins during the period of 1998 to 2015 using the TMPA research product (TMPA-RP) as a reference. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, which was calibrated and validated previously, is adopted to simulate streamflows driven by TMPA-RT and TMPA-RP, respectively. The objective of this study is to analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics of the hydrologic predictions by answering the following questions: (1) How do the precipitation errors associated with the TMPA-RT product transform into streamflow errors with respect to geographical and climatological characteristics? (2) How do streamflow errors vary across scales within a basin?

  1. Development of a model for predicting the dry matter production of mulberry [Morus alba] based on meteorological factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fukui, K.; Ito, D.

    1999-01-01

    It is necessary to predict mulberry growth and yield precisely at any time during the growing period, since mulberry trees are cut anytime along with the increase of the frequency of silkworm rearing per year. Therefore, in this study, attempts were made to develop a model to predict the dry matter production in mulberry fields with standard density with the cooperation of the prefectural experimental stations of Ibaraki, Tochigi, Gunma, Saitama, Tokyo and Gifu. To construct the model, we conducted three experiments. In the first year, we estimated the dry weight of mulberry new shoots based on the length and base width. Logarithm of leaf dry weight of a new shoot was regressed linearly on the logarithm of the product of length and base width. Stem dry weight was estimated with a linear regression of the logarithm on the logarithm of the product of length and base square width. In the next year, we evaluated the maximal effective radiation (Smax) of mulberry, over which mulberry cannot use radiation to produce dry matter. This experiment included shaded and control (non-shaded) plots, and the difference between these plots was analyzed. Shading treatment decreased the dry matter production, but did not affect the radiation conversion efficiency. Shoot dry matter production increased almost proportionally with intercepted radiation except for the later growth periods. Therefore, no Smax was revealed in mulberry fields with standard density. The effect of temperature and growth stage on the radiation conversion efficiency was investigated last year. Relation of temperature and radiation conversion efficiency was not clear for shoot dry matter production. However, there was a positive relation for stem dry mater production. Although the efficiency decreased with mulberry growth for leaf dry matter production, it increased at the early growth stage and decreased at the late stage for stem dry matter production

  2. Optimal Aging and Death

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dalgaard, Carl-Johan Lars; Strulik, Holger

    2010-01-01

    health investments. At the same time, physiological aspects of the aging process influence optimal savings and health investment. We calibrate the model for the average US male in 2000 and proceed to show that the calibrated model accounts well for the cross-country link between labor productivity......This study introduces physiological aging into a simple model of optimal intertemporal consumption. In this endeavor we draw on the natural science literature on aging. According to the purposed theory, the speed of the aging process and the time of death are endogenously determined by optimal...... and life expectancy in the same year ("the Preston curve"); cross-country income differences can explain differences in life expectancy at age 20 of up to a decade. Moreover, technological change in health care of about 1.1% per year can account for the observed shift in the Preston curve between 1980...

  3. Towards predicting basin-wide invertebrate organic biomass and production in marine sediments from a coastal sea.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brenda J Burd

    Full Text Available Detailed knowledge of environmental conditions is required to understand faunal production in coastal seas with topographic and hydrographic complexity. We test the hypothesis that organic biomass and production of subtidal sediment invertebrates throughout the Strait of Georgia, west coast of Canada, can be predicted by depth, substrate type and organic flux modified to reflect lability and age of material. A basin-wide database of biological, geochemical and flux data was analysed using an empirical production/biomass (P/B model to test this hypothesis. This analysis is unique in the spatial extent and detail of P/B and concurrent environmental measurements over a temperate coastal region. Modified organic flux was the most important predictor of organic biomass and production. Depth and substrate type were secondary modifiers. Between 69-74% of variability in biomass and production could be explained by the combined environmental factors. Organisms <1 mm were important contributors to biomass and production primarily in shallow, sandy sediments, where high P/B values were found despite low organic flux. Low biomass, production, and P/B values were found in the deep, northern basin and mainland fjords, which had silty sediments, low organic flux, low biomass of organisms <1 mm, and dominance by large, slow-growing macrofauna. In the highest organic flux and biomass areas near the Fraser River discharge, production did not increase beyond moderate flux levels. Although highly productive, this area had low P/B. Clearly, food input is insufficient to explain the complex patterns in faunal production revealed here. Additional environmental factors (depth, substrate type and unmeasured factors are important modifiers of these patterns. Potential reasons for the above patterns are explored, along with a discussion of unmeasured factors possibly responsible for unexplained (30% variance in biomass and production. We now have the tools for basin

  4. Predictions of biochar production and torrefaction performance from sugarcane bagasse using interpolation and regression analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Wei-Hsin; Hsu, Hung-Jen; Kumar, Gopalakrishnan; Budzianowski, Wojciech M; Ong, Hwai Chyuan

    2017-12-01

    This study focuses on the biochar formation and torrefaction performance of sugarcane bagasse, and they are predicted using the bilinear interpolation (BLI), inverse distance weighting (IDW) interpolation, and regression analysis. It is found that the biomass torrefied at 275°C for 60min or at 300°C for 30min or longer is appropriate to produce biochar as alternative fuel to coal with low carbon footprint, but the energy yield from the torrefaction at 300°C is too low. From the biochar yield, enhancement factor of HHV, and energy yield, the results suggest that the three methods are all feasible for predicting the performance, especially for the enhancement factor. The power parameter of unity in the IDW method provides the best predictions and the error is below 5%. The second order in regression analysis gives a more reasonable approach than the first order, and is recommended for the predictions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Prediction of N-nitrosodimethylamine (NDMA) formation as a disinfection by-product.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jongo; Clevenger, Thomas E

    2007-06-25

    This study investigated the possibility of a statistical model application for the prediction of N-nitrosodimethylamine (NDMA) formation. The NDMA formation was studied as a function of monochloramine concentration (0.001-5mM) at fixed dimethylamine (DMA) concentrations of 0.01mM or 0.05mM. Excellent linear correlations were observed between the molar ratio of monochloramine to DMA and the NDMA formation on a log scale at pH 7 and 8. When a developed prediction equation was applied to a previously reported study, a good result was obtained. The statistical model appears to predict adequately NDMA concentrations if other NDMA precursors are excluded. Using the predictive tool, a simple and approximate calculation of NDMA formation can be obtained in drinking water systems.

  6. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) NCEP-Global Forecast System (GFS) Precipitation Forecast Product

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Forecast System (GFS) forecast precipitation data at 37.5km resolution is created at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center for the purpose of near real-time...

  7. National Death Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The National Death Index (NDI) is a centralized database of death record information on file in state vital statistics offices. Working with these state offices, the...

  8. God's dominion over death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulling, Sharon

    2012-01-01

    This article briefly overviews the criteria for and physiological process of death, contrasting physical death with biblical passages revealing how God interceded in this universal process when Jesus was on earth.

  9. Moving Towards Dynamic Ocean Management: How Well Do Modeled Ocean Products Predict Species Distributions?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elizabeth A. Becker

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Species distribution models are now widely used in conservation and management to predict suitable habitat for protected marine species. The primary sources of dynamic habitat data have been in situ and remotely sensed oceanic variables (both are considered “measured data”, but now ocean models can provide historical estimates and forecast predictions of relevant habitat variables such as temperature, salinity, and mixed layer depth. To assess the performance of modeled ocean data in species distribution models, we present a case study for cetaceans that compares models based on output from a data assimilative implementation of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS to those based on measured data. Specifically, we used seven years of cetacean line-transect survey data collected between 1991 and 2009 to develop predictive habitat-based models of cetacean density for 11 species in the California Current Ecosystem. Two different generalized additive models were compared: one built with a full suite of ROMS output and another built with a full suite of measured data. Model performance was assessed using the percentage of explained deviance, root mean squared error (RMSE, observed to predicted density ratios, and visual inspection of predicted and observed distributions. Predicted distribution patterns were similar for models using ROMS output and measured data, and showed good concordance between observed sightings and model predictions. Quantitative measures of predictive ability were also similar between model types, and RMSE values were almost identical. The overall demonstrated success of the ROMS-based models opens new opportunities for dynamic species management and biodiversity monitoring because ROMS output is available in near real time and can be forecast.

  10. Productivity in physical and chemical science predicts the future economic growth of developing countries better than other popular indices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaffe, Klaus; Caicedo, Mario; Manzanares, Marcos; Gil, Mario; Rios, Alfredo; Florez, Astrid; Montoreano, Claudia; Davila, Vicente

    2013-01-01

    Scientific productivity of middle income countries correlates stronger with present and future wealth than indices reflecting its financial, social, economic or technological sophistication. We identify the contribution of the relative productivity of different scientific disciplines in predicting the future economic growth of a nation. Results show that rich and poor countries differ in the relative proportion of their scientific output in the different disciplines: countries with higher relative productivity in basic sciences such as physics and chemistry had the highest economic growth in the following five years compared to countries with a higher relative productivity in applied sciences such as medicine and pharmacy. Results suggest that the economies of middle income countries that focus their academic efforts in selected areas of applied knowledge grow slower than countries which invest in general basic sciences.

  11. Productivity in physical and chemical science predicts the future economic growth of developing countries better than other popular indices.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Klaus Jaffe

    Full Text Available Scientific productivity of middle income countries correlates stronger with present and future wealth than indices reflecting its financial, social, economic or technological sophistication. We identify the contribution of the relative productivity of different scientific disciplines in predicting the future economic growth of a nation. Results show that rich and poor countries differ in the relative proportion of their scientific output in the different disciplines: countries with higher relative productivity in basic sciences such as physics and chemistry had the highest economic growth in the following five years compared to countries with a higher relative productivity in applied sciences such as medicine and pharmacy. Results suggest that the economies of middle income countries that focus their academic efforts in selected areas of applied knowledge grow slower than countries which invest in general basic sciences.

  12. Influence of predictive contamination to agricultural products due to dry and wet processes during an accidental release of radionuclides

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, Won Tae; Kim, Eun Han; Suh, Kyung Suk; Jeong, Hyo Joon; Han, Moon Hee; Lee, Chang Woo

    2003-01-01

    The influence of predictive contamination to agricultural products due to the wet processes as well as dry processes from radioactive air concentration during a nuclear emergency is comprehensively analyzed. The previous dynamic food chain model DYNACON considering Korean agricultural and environmental conditions, in which the initial input parameter was radionuclide concentrations on the ground, is improved so as to evaluate radioactive contamination to agricultural products from either radioactive air concentrations or radionuclide concentrations on the ground. As for the results, wet deposition is a more dominant mechanism than dry deposition in contamination on the ground. While, the contamination levels of agricultural products are strongly dependent on radionuclide and precipitation when the deposition of radionuclides occurs. It means that the contamination levels of agricultural products are determined from which is the more dominant process between deposition on the ground and interception to agricultural plants

  13. Identity after Death

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gerstrøm, Anna

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to explore how legacy organizational identity and death relate to each other and, thereby, contribute to closing the gap in knowledge on organizational identity constructions in times of death. Design/methodology/approach: The paper opted for an exploratory....../value: This paper addresses an apparent gap in the literature on identity and death; exploring identity narratives in a bankrupted bank, the paper considers constructions of legacy organizational identities in times of disruptive death....

  14. Enhanced tools for predicting annual stone pine (Pinus pinea L.) cone production at tree and forest scale in Inner Spain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Calama, R.; Gordo, J.; Madrigal, G.; Mutke, S.; Conde, M.; Montero, G.; Pardos, M.

    2016-07-01

    Aim of the study: To present a new spatiotemporal model for Pinus pinea L. annual cone production with validity for Spanish Northen Plateau and Central Range regions. The new model aims to deal with detected deficiencies in previous models: temporal shortage, overestimation of cone production on recent years, incompatibility with data from National Forest Inventory, difficulty for upscaling and ignorance of the inhibitory process due to resource depletion. Area of study: Spanish Northern Plateau and Central Range regions, covering an area where stone pine occupies more than 90,000 ha. Material and methods: Fitting data set include 190 plots and more than 1000 trees were cone production has been annually collected from 1996 to 2014. Models were fitted independently for each region, by means of zero-inflated log normal techniques. Validation of the models was carried out over the annual series of cone production at forest scale. Results: The spatial and temporal factors influencing cone production are similar in both regions, thus the main regional differences in cone yield are related with differences in the phenological timing, the intensity of the influent factors and forest intrinsic conditions. A significant inhibition of floral induction by resource depletion was detected and included into the model. Upscaling the model results in accurate prediction at forest scale. Research highlights: [1] The new model for annual cone production surpass the detected deficiencies of previous models, accurately predicting recent decay in cone production; [2] Regional differences in cone production are due to phenological and seasonal climatic differences rather than to between provenances genetic differences. (Author)

  15. Increased production of free fatty acids in Aspergillus oryzae by disruption of a predicted acyl-CoA synthetase gene.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamano, Koichi; Bruno, Kenneth S; Koike, Hideaki; Ishii, Tomoko; Miura, Ai; Umemura, Myco; Culley, David E; Baker, Scott E; Machida, Masayuki

    2015-04-01

    Fatty acids are attractive molecules as source materials for the production of biodiesel fuel. Previously, we attained a 2.4-fold increase in fatty acid production by increasing the expression of fatty acid synthesis-related genes in Aspergillus oryzae. In this study, we achieved an additional increase in the production of fatty acids by disrupting a predicted acyl-CoA synthetase gene in A. oryzae. The A. oryzae genome is predicted to encode six acyl-CoA synthetase genes and disruption of AO090011000642, one of the six genes, resulted in a 9.2-fold higher accumulation (corresponding to an increased production of 0.23 mmol/g dry cell weight) of intracellular fatty acid in comparison to the wild-type strain. Furthermore, by introducing a niaD marker from Aspergillus nidulans to the disruptant, as well as changing the concentration of nitrogen in the culture medium from 10 to 350 mM, fatty acid productivity reached 0.54 mmol/g dry cell weight. Analysis of the relative composition of the major intracellular free fatty acids caused by disruption of AO090011000642 in comparison to the wild-type strain showed an increase in stearic acid (7 to 26 %), decrease in linoleic acid (50 to 27 %), and no significant changes in palmitic or oleic acid (each around 20-25 %).

  16. A new method in predicting productivity of multi-stage fractured horizontal well in tight gas reservoirs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunsheng Wei

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The generally accomplished technique for horizontal wells in tight gas reservoirs is by multi-stage hydraulic fracturing, not to mention, the flow characteristics of a horizontal well with multiple transverse fractures are very intricate. Conventional methods, well as an evaluation unit, are difficult to accurately predict production capacity of each fracture and productivity differences between wells with a different number of fractures. Thus, a single fracture sets the minimum evaluation unit, matrix, fractures, and lateral wellbore model that are then combined integrally to approximate horizontal well with multiple transverse hydraulic fractures in tight gas reservoirs. This paper presents a new semi-analytical methodology for predicting the production capacity of a horizontal well with multiple transverse hydraulic fractures in tight gas reservoirs. Firstly, a mathematical flow model used as a medium, which is disturbed by finite conductivity vertical fractures and rectangular shaped boundaries, is established and explained by the Fourier integral transform. Then the idea of a single stage fracture analysis is incorporated to establish linear flow model within a single fracture with a variable rate. The Fredholm integral numerical solution is applicable for the fracture conductivity function. Finally, the pipe flow model along the lateral wellbore is adapted to couple multi-stages fracture mathematical models, and the equation group of predicting productivity of a multi-stage fractured horizontal well. The whole flow process from the matrix to bottom-hole and production interference between adjacent fractures is also established. Meanwhile, the corresponding iterative algorithm of the equations is given. In this case analysis, the productions of each well and fracture are calculated under the different bottom-hole flowing pressure, and this method also contributes to obtaining the distribution of pressure drop and production for every

  17. Sudden death victims

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ceelen, Manon; van der Werf, Christian; Hendrix, Anneke; Naujocks, Tatjana; Woonink, Frits; de Vries, Philip; van der Wal, Allard; Das, Kees

    2015-01-01

    The goal of this study was to ascertain accordance between cause of death established by the forensic physician and autopsy results in young sudden death victims in the Netherlands. Sudden death victims aged 1-45 years examined by forensic physicians operating in the participating regions which also

  18. Death and Grief

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Staying Safe Videos for Educators Search English Español Death and Grief KidsHealth / For Teens / Death and Grief What's in this article? What Is ... the reaction we have in response to a death or loss. Grief can affect our body, mind, ...

  19. A 2nd generation static model for predicting greenhouse energy inputs, as an aid for production planning

    CERN Document Server

    Jolliet, O; Munday, G L

    1985-01-01

    A model which allows accurate prediction of energy consumption of a greenhouse is a useful tool for production planning and optimisation of greenhouse components. To date two types of model have been developed; some very simple models of low precision, others, precise dynamic models unsuitable for employment over long periods and too complex for use in practice. A theoretical study and measurements at the CERN trial greenhouse have allowed development of a new static model named "HORTICERN", easy to use and as precise as more complex dynamic models. This paper demonstrates the potential of this model for long-term production planning. The model gives precise predictions of energy consumption when given greenhouse conditions of use (inside temperatures, dehumidification by ventilation, …) and takes into account local climatic conditions (wind radiative losses to the sky and solar gains), type of greenhouse (cladding, thermal screen …). The HORTICERN method has been developed for PC use and requires less...

  20. Characterization of silver nanoparticles in selected consumer products and its relevance for predicting children’s potential exposures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tulve, Nicolle S.; Stefaniak, Aleksandr B.; Vance, Marina E.; Rogers, Kim; Mwilu, Samuel; LeBouf, Ryan F.; Schwegler-Berry, Diane; Willis, Robert; Thomas, Treye A.; Marr, Linsey C.

    2015-01-01

    Due to their antifungal, antibacterial, antiviral, and antimicrobial properties, silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) are used in consumer products intended for use by children or in the home. Children may be especially affected by the normal use of consumer products because of their physiological functions, developmental stage, and activities and behaviors. Despite much research to date, children’s potential exposures to AgNPs are not well characterized. Our objectives were to characterize selected consumer products containing AgNPs and to use the data to estimate a child’s potential non-dietary ingestion exposure. We identified and cataloged 165 consumer products claiming to contain AgNPs that may be used by or near children or found in the home. Nineteen products (textile, liquid, plastic) were selected for further analysis. We developed a tiered analytical approach to determine silver content, form (particulate or ionic), size, morphology, agglomeration state, and composition. Silver was detected in all products except one sippy cup body. Among products in a given category, silver mass contributions were highly variable and not always uniformly distributed within products, highlighting the need to sample multiple areas of a product. Electron microscopy confirmed the presence of AgNPs. Using this data, a child’s potential non-dietary ingestion exposure to AgNPs when drinking milk formula from a sippy cup is 1.53 μg Ag/kg. Additional research is needed to understand the number and types of consumer products containing silver and the concentrations of silver in these products in order to more accurately predict children’s potential aggregate and cumulative exposures to AgNPs. PMID:25747543

  1. Prediction of the estimated 5-year risk of sudden cardiac death and syncope or non-sustained ventricular tachycardia in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy using late gadolinium enhancement and extracellular volume CMR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Avanesov, Maxim; Weinrich, Julius; Well, Lennart; Tahir, Enver; Adam, Gerhard; Lund, Gunnar [University Hospital Hamburg Eppendorf, Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, Hamburg (Germany); Muench, Julia; Patten, Monica [University Heart Center Hamburg, Department of General and Interventional Cardiology, Hamburg (Germany); DZHK (German Center for Cardiovascular Research), Partner Site Hamburg/Kiel/Luebeck, Hamburg (Germany); Saering, Dennis [University of Applied Sciences, Information Technology and Image Processing, Wedel (Germany); Stehning, Christian [Philips Research, Hamburg (Germany); Bohnen, Sebastian; Radunski, Ulf K.; Muellerleile, Kai [University Heart Center Hamburg, Department of General and Interventional Cardiology, Hamburg (Germany)

    2017-12-15

    To evaluate the ability of late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) and mapping cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) including native T1 and global extracellular volume (ECV) to identify hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) patients at risk for sudden cardiac death (SCD) and to predict syncope or non-sustained ventricular tachycardia (VT). A 1.5-T CMR was performed in 73 HCM patients and 16 controls. LGE size was quantified using the 3SD, 5SD and full width at half maximum (FWHM) method. T1 and ECV maps were generated by a 3(3)5 modified Look-Locker inversion recovery sequence. Receiver-operating curve analysis evaluated the best parameter to identify patients with increased SCD risk ≥4% and patients with syncope or non-sustained VT. Global ECV was the best predictor of SCD risk with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.83. LGE size was significantly inferior to global ECV with an AUC of 0.68, 0.70 and 0.70 (all P < 0.05) for 3SD-, 5SD- and FWHM-LGE, respectively. Combined use of the SCD risk score and global ECV significantly improved the diagnostic accuracy to identify HCM patients with syncope or non-sustained VT. Combined use of the SCD risk score and global ECV has the potential to improve HCM patient selection, benefiting most implantable cardioverter defibrillators. (orig.)

  2. Prediction of the estimated 5-year risk of sudden cardiac death and syncope or non-sustained ventricular tachycardia in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy using late gadolinium enhancement and extracellular volume CMR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avanesov, Maxim; Weinrich, Julius; Well, Lennart; Tahir, Enver; Adam, Gerhard; Lund, Gunnar; Muench, Julia; Patten, Monica; Saering, Dennis; Stehning, Christian; Bohnen, Sebastian; Radunski, Ulf K.; Muellerleile, Kai

    2017-01-01

    To evaluate the ability of late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) and mapping cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) including native T1 and global extracellular volume (ECV) to identify hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) patients at risk for sudden cardiac death (SCD) and to predict syncope or non-sustained ventricular tachycardia (VT). A 1.5-T CMR was performed in 73 HCM patients and 16 controls. LGE size was quantified using the 3SD, 5SD and full width at half maximum (FWHM) method. T1 and ECV maps were generated by a 3(3)5 modified Look-Locker inversion recovery sequence. Receiver-operating curve analysis evaluated the best parameter to identify patients with increased SCD risk ≥4% and patients with syncope or non-sustained VT. Global ECV was the best predictor of SCD risk with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.83. LGE size was significantly inferior to global ECV with an AUC of 0.68, 0.70 and 0.70 (all P < 0.05) for 3SD-, 5SD- and FWHM-LGE, respectively. Combined use of the SCD risk score and global ECV significantly improved the diagnostic accuracy to identify HCM patients with syncope or non-sustained VT. Combined use of the SCD risk score and global ECV has the potential to improve HCM patient selection, benefiting most implantable cardioverter defibrillators. (orig.)

  3. The FlbA-regulated predicted transcription factor Fum21 of Aspergillus niger is involved in fumonisin production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aerts, David; Hauer, Esther E; Ohm, Robin A; Arentshorst, Mark; Teertstra, Wieke R; Phippen, Christopher; Ram, Arthur F J; Frisvad, Jens C; Wösten, Han A B

    2018-03-01

    Aspergillus niger secretes proteins throughout the colony except for the zone that forms asexual spores called conidia. Inactivation of flbA that encodes a regulator of G-protein signaling results in colonies that are unable to reproduce asexually and that secrete proteins throughout the mycelium. In addition, the ΔflbA strain shows cell lysis and has thinner cell walls. Expression analysis showed that 38 predicted transcription factor genes are differentially expressed in strain ΔflbA. Here, the most down-regulated predicted transcription factor gene, called fum21, was inactivated. Growth, conidiation, and protein secretion were not affected in strain Δfum21. Whole genome expression analysis revealed that 63 and 11 genes were down- and up-regulated in Δfum21, respectively, when compared to the wild-type strain. Notably, 24 genes predicted to be involved in secondary metabolism were down-regulated in Δfum21, including 10 out of 12 genes of the fumonisin cluster. This was accompanied by absence of fumonisin production in the deletion strain and a 25% reduction in production of pyranonigrin A. Together, these results link FlbA-mediated sporulation-inhibited secretion with mycotoxin production.

  4. Predicting the mean cycle time as a function of throughput and product mix for cluster tool workstations using EPT-based aggregate modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veeger, C.P.L.; Etman, L.F.P.; Herk, van J.; Rooda, J.E.

    2009-01-01

    Predicting the mean cycle time as a function of throughput and product mix is helpful in making the production planning for cluster tools. To predict the mean cycle time, detailed simulation models may be used. However, detailed models require much development time, and it may not be possible to

  5. Does the Holland Code Predict Job Satisfaction and Productivity in Clothing Factory Workers?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heesacker, Martin; And Others

    1988-01-01

    Administered Self-Directed Search to sewing machine operators to determine Holland code, and assessed work productivity, job satisfaction, absenteeism, and insurance claims. Most workers were of the Social code. Social subjects were the most satisfied, Conventional and Realistic subjects next, and subjects of other codes less so. Productivity of…

  6. Vegetative biomass predicts inflorescence production along a CO2 concentration gradient in mesic grassland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atmospheric CO2 concentration will likely exceed 500 uL L-1 by 2050, often increasing plant community productivity in part by increasing abundance of species favored by increased CA. Whether increased abundance translates to increased inflorescence production is poorly understood, and is important ...

  7. Quality prediction of bakery products in the initial phase of process design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hadiyanto, H.; Asselman, A.; Straten, van G.; Boom, R.M.; Esveld, D.C.; Boxtel, van A.J.B.

    2007-01-01

    The development of food production processes is facilitated by tools which explore the interaction between process design, operation conditions and product characteristics. In this work an approach how to set-up a simulation model is presented for the phenomena and transformations which occur during

  8. Characterization of silver nanoparticles in selected consumer products and its relevance for predicting children's potential exposures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Due to their antifungal, antibacterial, antiviral, and antimicrobial properties, silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) are used in consumer products intended for use by children or in the home. Children may be especially affected by the normal use of consumer products because of their phy...

  9. Metagenome-wide association study and machine learning prediction of bulk soil microbiome and crop productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Areas within an agricultural field in the same season often differ in crop productivity despite having the same cropping history, crop genotype, and management practices. One hypothesis is that abiotic or biotic factors in the soils differ between areas resulting in these productivity differences. I...

  10. Eyelid closure at death

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A D Macleod

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim: To observe the incidence of full or partial eyelid closure at death. Materials and Methods: The presence of ptosis was recorded in 100 consecutive hospice patient deaths. Results: Majority (63% of the patients died with their eyes fully closed, however, 37% had bilateral ptosis at death, with incomplete eye closure. In this study, central nervous system tumor involvement and/or acute hepatic encephalopathy appeared to be pre-mortem risk factors of bilateral ptosis at death. Conclusion: Organicity and not psychogenicity is, therefore, the likely etiology of failure of full eyelid closure at death.

  11. Interpreting expression data with metabolic flux models: predicting Mycobacterium tuberculosis mycolic acid production.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caroline Colijn

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Metabolism is central to cell physiology, and metabolic disturbances play a role in numerous disease states. Despite its importance, the ability to study metabolism at a global scale using genomic technologies is limited. In principle, complete genome sequences describe the range of metabolic reactions that are possible for an organism, but cannot quantitatively describe the behaviour of these reactions. We present a novel method for modeling metabolic states using whole cell measurements of gene expression. Our method, which we call E-Flux (as a combination of flux and expression, extends the technique of Flux Balance Analysis by modeling maximum flux constraints as a function of measured gene expression. In contrast to previous methods for metabolically interpreting gene expression data, E-Flux utilizes a model of the underlying metabolic network to directly predict changes in metabolic flux capacity. We applied E-Flux to Mycobacterium tuberculosis, the bacterium that causes tuberculosis (TB. Key components of mycobacterial cell walls are mycolic acids which are targets for several first-line TB drugs. We used E-Flux to predict the impact of 75 different drugs, drug combinations, and nutrient conditions on mycolic acid biosynthesis capacity in M. tuberculosis, using a public compendium of over 400 expression arrays. We tested our method using a model of mycolic acid biosynthesis as well as on a genome-scale model of M. tuberculosis metabolism. Our method correctly predicts seven of the eight known fatty acid inhibitors in this compendium and makes accurate predictions regarding the specificity of these compounds for fatty acid biosynthesis. Our method also predicts a number of additional potential modulators of TB mycolic acid biosynthesis. E-Flux thus provides a promising new approach for algorithmically predicting metabolic state from gene expression data.

  12. Early Improvement in Work Productivity Predicts Future Clinical Course in Depressed Outpatients: Findings from the CO-MED Trial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jha, Manish K.; Minhajuddin, Abu; Greer, Tracy L.; Carmody, Thomas; Rush, A. John; Trivedi, Madhukar H.

    2018-01-01

    Objective Depression symptom severity, the most commonly studied outcome in antidepressant treatment trials, accounts for only a small portion of burden related to major depression. While lost work productivity is the biggest contributor to depression’s economic burden, few studies have systematically evaluated the independent effect of treatment on work productivity and the relationship between changes in work productivity and longer-term clinical course. Method Work productivity was measured repeatedly by the Work Productivity and Activity Impairment (WPAI) self-report in 331 employed participants with major depression enrolled in the Combining Medications to Enhance Depression Outcomes (CO-MED) trial. Trajectories of change in work productivity during the first 6 weeks of treatment were identified and used to predict remission at 3 and 7 months. Results Participants reported reduced absence from work and increased work productivity with antidepressant treatment even after controlling for changes in depression severity. Three distinct trajectories of changes in work productivity were identified: 1) robust early improvement (24%), 2) minimal change (49%), and 3) high-impairment slight reduction (27%). As compared to other participants, those with robust improvement had 3–5 times higher remission rates at 3 months and 2–5 times higher remission rates at 7 months, even after controlling for select baseline variables and remission status at week 6. Conclusions In this secondary analysis, self-reported work productivity improved in depressed patients with antidepressant treatment even after accounting for depressive symptom reduction. Early improvement in work productivity is associated with much higher remission rates after 3 and 7 months of treatment. PMID:27523501

  13. Mycelium differentiation and development of Streptomyces coelicolor in lab-scale bioreactors: Programmed cell death, differentiation, and lysis are closely linked to undecylprodigiosin and actinorhodin production

    OpenAIRE

    Rioseras de Bustos, Beatriz; López García, María Teresa (Bio); Yagüe Menéndez, Paula; Sánchez Martín, Jesús; Manteca Fernández, Ángel

    2014-01-01

    Streptomycetes are mycelium-forming bacteria that produce two thirds of clinically relevant secondary metabolites. Secondary metabolite production is activated at specific developmental stages of Streptomyces life cycle. Despite this, Streptomyces differentiation in industrial bioreactors tends to be underestimated and the most important parameters managed are only indirectly related to differentiation: modifications to the culture media, optimization of productive strains by random or direct...

  14. Predictive analytics tools to adjust and monitor performance metrics for the ATLAS Production System

    CERN Document Server

    Barreiro Megino, Fernando Harald; The ATLAS collaboration

    2017-01-01

    Having information such as an estimation of the processing time or possibility of system outage (abnormal behaviour) helps to assist to monitor system performance and to predict its next state. The current cyber-infrastructure presents computing conditions in which contention for resources among high-priority data analysis happens routinely, that might lead to significant workload and data handling interruptions. The lack of the possibility to monitor and to predict the behaviour of the analysis process (its duration) and system’s state itself caused to focus on design of the built-in situational awareness analytic tools.

  15. Volatile substance misuse deaths in Washington State, 2003-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ossiander, Eric M

    2015-01-01

    Volatile substance misuse (VSM - also known as huffing or sniffing) causes some deaths, but because there are no specific cause-of-death codes for VSM, these deaths are rarely tabulated. Count and describe VSM deaths occurring in Washington State during 2003-2012. We used the textual cause-of-death information on death certificates to count VSM-associated deaths that occurred in Washington State during 2003-2012. We extracted records that contained words suggesting either a method of inhalation or a substance commonly used for VSM, and reviewed those records to identify deaths on which the inhalation of a volatile substance was mentioned. We conducted a descriptive analysis of those deaths. Fifty-six deaths involving VSM occurred in Washington State during 2003-2012. VSM deaths occurred primarily among adults age 20 and over (91%), males (88%), and whites (93%). Twelve different chemicals were associated with deaths, but 1 of them, difluoroethane, was named on 30 death certificates (54%), and its involvement increased during the study period. Gas duster products were named as the source of difluoroethane for 12 deaths; no source was named for the other 18 difluoroethane deaths. Most VSM deaths occurred among white male adults, and gas duster products containing difluoroethane were the primary source of inhalants. Approaches to deter VSM, such as the addition of bitterants to gas dusters, should be explored.

  16. PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE ADDED VALUE OF SULTANA SEEDLESS GRAPE PRODUCTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Umut Burak Geyikci

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Turkey after USA is the second important raisin grape producer by cv “Sultana”in the world (Kara,2014. The Manisa district alone accounts for 31% of totalgrape production and 80% of the whole sultana seedless raisin grape production inTurkey. 95% of total grape output generated in Manisa is made up of Sultanaseedless grape(TUIK, 2012. In thisstudy, the added value of grape production inManisa has been calculated and according to the findings, the per capita addedvalue of grape production has been computed. In order to calculate the addedvalue of grape production in Manisa, costs of labor, fuel, fertilizer, disinfection,hormone, repair and maintenance of the businesses around have been investigated.After calculated costs had been deducted from total business income, the totaladded value of grape production in Manisa and the per capita added valueofgrape production in Manisa were attained The efficiency per hectare in the sampleproduction units, which was investigated during the field research, measures up to26.470 kg. The percentile distributions of cost items at this efficiency level are;27,8% fuel costs, 23,2% fertilizing costs, 19,9% irrigation costs, 11,4%disinfection costs, 7,5% hormone usage costs, 4,6% harvesting and transportingcosts and the rest consists of maintenance costs. When the costs are deducted from income per hectare (11.646 USD, the added value per hectare turns out to be8843 USD

  17. Causes of accidental childhood deaths in China in 2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chan, Kit Yee; Yu, Xin-Wei; Lu, Jia-Peng

    2015-01-01

    -4 years in China, of which 31 633 (10.1%) were accidental. Accidental deaths contributed 7240 (4.0%) of all deaths in neonatal period, 8838 (10.5%) among all post-neonatal infant deaths, and 15 554 (31.7%) among children with 1-4 years of age. Among four tested models, the most predictive was used...

  18. Prediction of seasonal climate-induced variations in global food production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iizumi, Toshichika; Sakuma, Hirofumi; Yokozawa, Masayuki

    2013-01-01

    attention to the cropping forecasts of important food-exporting countries as well as to their own domestic food production. Given the increased volatility of food markets and the rising incidence of climatic extremes affecting food production, food price spikes may increase in prevalence in future years(2......Consumers, including the poor in many countries, are increasingly dependent on food imports(1) and are thus exposed to variations in yields, production and export prices in the major food-producing regions of the world. National governments and commercial entities are therefore paying increased...

  19. Higher-order QCD predictions for dark matter production at the LHC in simplified models with s-channel mediators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Backović, Mihailo; Krämer, Michael; Maltoni, Fabio; Martini, Antony; Mawatari, Kentarou; Pellen, Mathieu

    Weakly interacting dark matter particles can be pair-produced at colliders and detected through signatures featuring missing energy in association with either QCD/EW radiation or heavy quarks. In order to constrain the mass and the couplings to standard model particles, accurate and precise predictions for production cross sections and distributions are of prime importance. In this work, we consider various simplified models with s -channel mediators. We implement such models in the FeynRules/MadGraph5_aMC@NLO framework, which allows to include higher-order QCD corrections in realistic simulations and to study their effect systematically. As a first phenomenological application, we present predictions for dark matter production in association with jets and with a top-quark pair at the LHC, at next-to-leading order accuracy in QCD, including matching/merging to parton showers. Our study shows that higher-order QCD corrections to dark matter production via s -channel mediators have a significant impact not only on total production rates, but also on shapes of distributions. We also show that the inclusion of next-to-leading order effects results in a sizeable reduction of the theoretical uncertainties.

  20. Higher-order QCD predictions for dark matter production at the LHC in simplified models with s-channel mediators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backović, Mihailo [Centre for Cosmology, Particle Physics and Phenomenology (CP3), Université catholique de Louvain, 1348, Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium); Krämer, Michael [Institute for Theoretical Particle Physics and Cosmology, RWTH Aachen University, 52056, Aachen (Germany); Maltoni, Fabio; Martini, Antony [Centre for Cosmology, Particle Physics and Phenomenology (CP3), Université catholique de Louvain, 1348, Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium); Mawatari, Kentarou, E-mail: kentarou.mawatari@vub.ac.be [Theoretische Natuurkunde and IIHE/ELEM, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, and International Solvay Institutes, Pleinlaan 2, 1050, Brussels (Belgium); Pellen, Mathieu [Institute for Theoretical Particle Physics and Cosmology, RWTH Aachen University, 52056, Aachen (Germany)

    2015-10-07

    Weakly interacting dark matter particles can be pair-produced at colliders and detected through signatures featuring missing energy in association with either QCD/EW radiation or heavy quarks. In order to constrain the mass and the couplings to standard model particles, accurate and precise predictions for production cross sections and distributions are of prime importance. In this work, we consider various simplified models with s-channel mediators. We implement such models in the FeynRules/MadGraph5{sub a}MC@NLO framework, which allows to include higher-order QCD corrections in realistic simulations and to study their effect systematically. As a first phenomenological application, we present predictions for dark matter production in association with jets and with a top-quark pair at the LHC, at next-to-leading order accuracy in QCD, including matching/merging to parton showers. Our study shows that higher-order QCD corrections to dark matter production via s-channel mediators have a significant impact not only on total production rates, but also on shapes of distributions. We also show that the inclusion of next-to-leading order effects results in a sizeable reduction of the theoretical uncertainties.

  1. Higher-order QCD predictions for dark matter production at the LHC in simplified models with s-channel mediators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backovic, Mihailo; Maltoni, Fabio; Martini, Antony [Universite catholique de Louvain, Centre for Cosmology, Particle Physics and Phenomenology (CP3), Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium); Kraemer, Michael; Pellen, Mathieu [RWTH Aachen University, Institute for Theoretical Particle Physics and Cosmology, Aachen (Germany); Mawatari, Kentarou [Theoretische Natuurkunde and IIHE/ELEM, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, and International Solvay Institutes, Brussels (Belgium)

    2015-10-15

    Weakly interacting dark matter particles can be pair-produced at colliders and detected through signatures featuring missing energy in association with either QCD/EW radiation or heavy quarks. In order to constrain the mass and the couplings to standard model particles, accurate and precise predictions for production cross sections and distributions are of prime importance. In this work, we consider various simplified models with s-channel mediators. We implement such models in the FeynRules/MadGraph5{sub a}MC rate at NLO framework, which allows to include higher-order QCD corrections in realistic simulations and to study their effect systematically. As a first phenomenological application, we present predictions for dark matter production in association with jets and with a top-quark pair at the LHC, at next-to-leading order accuracy in QCD, including matching/merging to parton showers. Our study shows that higher-order QCD corrections to dark matter production via s-channel mediators have a significant impact not only on total production rates, but also on shapes of distributions. We also show that the inclusion of next-to-leading order effects results in a sizeable reduction of the theoretical uncertainties. (orig.)

  2. Higher-order QCD predictions for dark matter production at the LHC in simplified models with s-channel mediators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Backovic, Mihailo; Maltoni, Fabio; Martini, Antony; Kraemer, Michael; Pellen, Mathieu; Mawatari, Kentarou

    2015-01-01

    Weakly interacting dark matter particles can be pair-produced at colliders and detected through signatures featuring missing energy in association with either QCD/EW radiation or heavy quarks. In order to constrain the mass and the couplings to standard model particles, accurate and precise predictions for production cross sections and distributions are of prime importance. In this work, we consider various simplified models with s-channel mediators. We implement such models in the FeynRules/MadGraph5 a MC rate at NLO framework, which allows to include higher-order QCD corrections in realistic simulations and to study their effect systematically. As a first phenomenological application, we present predictions for dark matter production in association with jets and with a top-quark pair at the LHC, at next-to-leading order accuracy in QCD, including matching/merging to parton showers. Our study shows that higher-order QCD corrections to dark matter production via s-channel mediators have a significant impact not only on total production rates, but also on shapes of distributions. We also show that the inclusion of next-to-leading order effects results in a sizeable reduction of the theoretical uncertainties. (orig.)

  3. Evaluation of CRUDTRAN code to predict transport of corrosion products and radioactivity in the PWR primary coolant system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, C.B.

    2002-01-01

    CRUDTRAN code is to predict transport of the corrosion products and their radio-activated nuclides such as cobalt-58 and cobalt-60 in the PWR primary coolant system. In CRUDTRAN code the PWR primary circuit is divided into three principal sections such as the core, the coolant and the steam generator. The main driving force for corrosion product transport in the PWR primary coolant comes from coolant temperature change throughout the system and a subsequent change in corrosion product solubility. As the coolant temperature changes around the PWR primary circuit, saturation status of the corrosion products in the coolant also changes such that under-saturation in steam generator and super-saturation in the core. CRUDTRAN code was evaluated by comparison with the results of the in-reactor loop tests simulating the PWR primary coolant system and PWR plant data. It showed that CRUDTRAN could predict variations of cobalt-58 and cobalt-60 radioactivity with time, plant cycle and coolant chemistry in the PWR plant. (author)

  4. The use of a measure of acute irritation to predict the outcome of repeated usage of hand soap products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, C; Wilkinson, M; McShane, P; Pennington, D; Fernandez, C; Pierce, S

    2011-06-01

    Healthcare-associated infection is an important worldwide problem that could be reduced by better hand hygiene practice. However, an increasing number of healthcare workers are experiencing irritant contact dermatitis of the hands as a result of repeated hand washing. This may lead to a reduced level of compliance with regard to hand hygiene. To assess whether a measure of acute irritation by hand soaps could predict the effects of repeated usage over a 2-week period. In a double-blind, randomized comparison study, the comparative irritation potential of four different hand soaps was assessed over a 24-h treatment period. The effect of repeated hand washing with the hand soap products over a 2-week period in healthy adult volunteers on skin barrier function was then determined by assessment of transepidermal water loss (TEWL), epidermal hydration and a visual assessment using the Hand Eczema Severity Index (HECSI) at days 0, 7 and 14. A total of 121 subjects from the 123 recruited completed phase 1 of the study. All four products were seen to be significantly different from each other in terms of the irritant reaction observed and all products resulted in a significantly higher irritation compared with the no-treatment control. Seventy-nine of the initial 121 subjects were then enrolled into the repeated usage study. A statistically significant worsening of the clinical condition of the skin as measured by HECSI was seen from baseline to day 14 in those subjects repeatedly washing their hands with two of the four soap products (products C and D) with P-values of 0·02 and 0·01, respectively. Subclinical assessment of the skin barrier function by measuring epidermal hydration was significantly increased from baseline to day 7 after repeated hand washing with products A, B and D but overall no significant change was seen in all four products tested by day 14. A statistically significant increase in TEWL at day 14 was seen for product A (P = 0·02) indicating a

  5. Evaluation of remote-sensing-based rainfall products through predictive capability in hydrological runoff modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stisen, Simon; Sandholt, Inge

    2010-01-01

    SRFEs, Climate Prediction Center MORPHing technique (CMORPH), Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN). The best performing SRFE, CPC-FEWS, produced good results with values of R2NS between 0...

  6. The impact of uncertainties on predicted GHG emissions of dairy cow production systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zehetmeier, M.; Gandorfer, M.; Hoffmann, H.; Muller, U.K.; Boer, de I.J.M.

    2014-01-01

    Dairy farms produce significant greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and are therefore a focal point for GHG-mitigation practices. To develop viable mitigation options, we need robust (insensitive to changes in model parameters and assumptions) predictions of GHG emissions. To this end, we developed a

  7. Selection of Prediction Methods for Thermophysical Properties for Process Modeling and Product Design of Biodiesel Manufacturing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Su, Yung-Chieh; Liu, Y. A.; Díaz Tovar, Carlos Axel

    2011-01-01

    To optimize biodiesel manufacturing, many reported studies have built simulation models to quantify the relationship between operating conditions and process performance. For mass and energy balance simulations, it is essential to know the four fundamental thermophysical properties of the feed oil...... prediction methods on our group Web site (www.design.che.vt.edu) for the reader to download without charge....

  8. Artificial Neural Network Approach to Predict Biodiesel Production in Supercritical tert-Butyl Methyl Ether

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Obie Farobie

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available In this study, for the first time artificial neural network was used to predict biodiesel yield in supercritical tert-butyl methyl ether (MTBE. The experimental data of biodiesel yield conducted by varying four input factors (i.e. temperature, pressure, oil-to-MTBE molar ratio, and reaction time were used to elucidate artificial neural network model in order to predict biodiesel yield. The main goal of this study was to assess how accurately this artificial neural network model to predict biodiesel yield conducted under supercritical MTBE condition. The result shows that artificial neural network is a powerful tool for modeling and predicting biodiesel yield conducted under supercritical MTBE condition that was proven by a high value of coefficient of determination (R of 0.9969, 0.9899, and 0.9658 for training, validation, and testing, respectively. Using this approach, the highest biodiesel yield was determined of 0.93 mol/mol (corresponding to the actual biodiesel yield of 0.94 mol/mol that was achieved at 400 °C, under the reactor pressure of 10 MPa, oil-to-MTBE molar ratio of 1:40 within 15 min of reaction time.

  9. Heavy-Ion Fusion Mechanism and Predictions of Super-Heavy Elements Production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abe, Yasuhisa; Shen Caiwan; Boilley, David; Giraud, Bertrand G.; Kosenko, Grigory

    2009-01-01

    Fusion process is shown to firstly form largely deformed mono-nucleus and then to undergo diffusion in two-dimensions with the radial and mass-asymmetry degrees of freedom. Examples of prediction of residue cross sections are given for the elements with Z = 117 and 118.

  10. Radioanalytical prediction of radiative capture in 99Mo production via transmutation adiabatic resonance crossing by cyclotron

    CERN Document Server

    Khorshidi, Abdollah; Pazirandeh, Ali; Tenreiro, Claudio; Kadi, Yacine

    2014-01-01

    In this study, the transmutation adiabatic resonance crossing (TARC) concept was estimated in Mo-99 radioisotope production via radiative capture reaction in two designs. The TARC method was composed of moderating neutrons in lead or a composition of lead and water. Additionally, the target was surrounded by a moderator assembly and a graphite reflector district. Produced neutrons were investigated by (p,xn) interactions with 30 MeV and 300 mu A proton beam on tungsten, beryllium, and tantalum targets. The Mo-99 production yield was related to the moderator property, cross section, and sample positioning inside the distinct region of neutron storage as must be proper to achieve gains. Gathered thermal flux of neutrons can contribute to molybdenum isotope production. Moreover, the sample positioning to gain higher production yield was dependent on a greater flux in the length of thermal neutrons and region materials inside the moderator or reflector. When the sample radial distance from Be was 38 cm inside the...

  11. Feasibility of DEXA prediction of dry matter and mass for horticultural products

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bartle, C.M.; West, J.G.

    2009-01-01

    Previously the DEXA system used in this research has been deployed commercially in meat processing plants with the objective of accurately determining the fat content of bulk and packaged meat, through a JV with ANZCO Foods and a partnership with Smiths Detection. This present research is aimed at demonstrating an ability to measure the dry matter distribution and in turn the net dry matter for individual horticultural products using DEXA. The DEXA images are obtained while scanning the products on a conveyor belt running at speeds representative of production grading situations. The products reported on here are primarily potatoes (because of a direct commercial interest), but also a butternut pumpkin and two rock melons. The grading and dry matter measurement capability is based on detecting change in the effective atomic number (EAN) with change in the elemental proportions within the product and there being effectively a binary mixture (e.g dry matter and water) present. Grading of fruit and vegetables on this basis is expected to be challenging. The commercial meat/fat grading already commercialised as a DEXA system is associated with 1.8 EAN units difference between fat (carbon rich Z eff =5.8) and fully-lean meat (oxygen rich Z eff =7.6) but this range is large compared to what is expected for horticultural products. The dry matter in horticultural products is primarily starch (plus minerals) and the EAN difference between starch (and minerals) and water is unknown here but calculations give the difference as little as 0.2 EAN units, dependant on the mineral content in the product. In this work we show that the dry matter sensitivities of the DEXA technology for horticultural products is discernable allowing measurement of dry matter distributions, and net dry matter values. The EAN range is indeed much smaller than for fat/meat mixtures, and consistent differences are yet to be demonstrated for an assembly of product, except for potatoes where consistency

  12. Prediction of Acute Mammalian Toxicity Using QSAR Methods: A Case Study of Sulfur Mustard and Its Breakdown Products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Wheeler

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Predicting toxicity quantitatively, using Quantitative Structure Activity Relationships (QSAR, has matured over recent years to the point that the predictions can be used to help identify missing comparison values in a substance’s database. In this manuscript we investigate using the lethal dose that kills fifty percent of a test population (the LD50 for determining relative toxicity of a number of substances. In general, the smaller the LD50 value, the more toxic the chemical, and the larger the LD50 value, the lower the toxicity. When systemic toxicity and other specific toxicity data are unavailable for the chemical(s of interest, during emergency responses, LD50 values may be employed to determine the relative toxicity of a series of chemicals. In the present study, a group of chemical warfare agents and their breakdown products have been evaluated using four available rat oral QSAR LD50 models. The QSAR analysis shows that the breakdown products of Sulfur Mustard (HD are predicted to be less toxic than the parent compound as well as other known breakdown products that have known toxicities. The QSAR estimated break down products LD50 values ranged from 299 mg/kg to 5,764 mg/kg. This evaluation allows for the ranking and toxicity estimation of compounds for which little toxicity information existed; thus leading to better risk decision making in the field.

  13. Como o ecocardiograma pode ser útil em predizer a morte em crianças com cardiomiopatia dilatada idiopática? How can the echocardiogram be useful for predicting death in children with idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vitor Manuel Pereira Azevedo

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Determinar os fatores preditores ecocardiográficos de morte em crianças com cardiomiopatia dilatada idiopática. MÉTODOS: Estudo retrospectivo de 148 crianças com cardiomiopatia dilatada idiopática diagnosticadas entre setembro/1979 a março/2003. Critérios para inclusão: insuficiência cardíaca e redução da contratilidade no ecocardiograma, na ausência de cardiopatia congênita ou secundária. Foram analisados 470 exames, durante 244,8 meses de evolução. Parâmetros analisados: dimensão do átrio esquerdo (DAE, relação átrio esquerdo/aorta (DAE/Ao, dimensão sistólica (DSVE e diastólica (DDVE do VE, massa do VE (massa, dimensão do ventrículo direito (DVD, fração de ejeção do VE (FE, percentagem de encurtamento do VE (%EC, gravidade da insuficiência das valvas atrioventriculares e da valva pulmonar e medida da pressão sistólica (PsVD e diastólica (PdVD do VD. Foi considerado significativo erro alfa OBJECTIVE: To determine the echocardiographic predicting factors of death in children with idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy. METHODS: A retrospective study of 148 children with idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy diagnosed between September 1979 and March 2003 was carried out. The inclusion criteria were as follows: heart failure and a reduction in contractility on the echocardiogram in the absence of congenital or secondary heart disease. Four hundred and seventy examinations during a period of 244.8 months of evolution were analyzed. The following parameters were assessed: left atrial dimension (LAD; left atrium/aorta ratio (LAD/Ao; left ventricular systolic (LVSD and diastolic (LVDD dimensions; left ventricular mass (LVmass; right ventricular dimension (RVD; left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF; left ventricular shortening fraction (% SH; severity of the insufficiency of the atrioventricular and pulmonary valves; and right ventricular systolic (RVSP and diastolic (RVDP pressures. The significance level

  14. Genomic prediction applied to high-biomass sorghum for bioenergy production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Oliveira, Amanda Avelar; Pastina, Maria Marta; de Souza, Vander Filipe; da Costa Parrella, Rafael Augusto; Noda, Roberto Willians; Simeone, Maria Lúcia Ferreira; Schaffert, Robert Eugene; de Magalhães, Jurandir Vieira; Damasceno, Cynthia Maria Borges; Margarido, Gabriel Rodrigues Alves

    2018-01-01

    The increasing cost of energy and finite oil and gas reserves have created a need to develop alternative fuels from renewable sources. Due to its abiotic stress tolerance and annual cultivation, high-biomass sorghum ( Sorghum bicolor L. Moench) shows potential as a bioenergy crop. Genomic selection is a useful tool for accelerating genetic gains and could restructure plant breeding programs by enabling early selection and reducing breeding cycle duration. This work aimed at predicting breeding values via genomic selection models for 200 sorghum genotypes comprising landrace accessions and breeding lines from biomass and saccharine groups. These genotypes were divided into two sub-panels, according to breeding purpose. We evaluated the following phenotypic biomass traits: days to flowering, plant height, fresh and dry matter yield, and fiber, cellulose, hemicellulose, and lignin proportions. Genotyping by sequencing yielded more than 258,000 single-nucleotide polymorphism markers, which revealed population structure between subpanels. We then fitted and compared genomic selection models BayesA, BayesB, BayesCπ, BayesLasso, Bayes Ridge Regression and random regression best linear unbiased predictor. The resulting predictive abilities varied little between the different models, but substantially between traits. Different scenarios of prediction showed the potential of using genomic selection results between sub-panels and years, although the genotype by environment interaction negatively affected accuracies. Functional enrichment analyses performed with the marker-predicted effects suggested several interesting associations, with potential for revealing biological processes relevant to the studied quantitative traits. This work shows that genomic selection can be successfully applied in biomass sorghum breeding programs.

  15. A human hemi-cornea model for eye irritation testing: quality control of production, reliability and predictive capacity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engelke, M; Zorn-Kruppa, M; Gabel, D; Reisinger, K; Rusche, B; Mewes, K R

    2013-02-01

    We have developed a 3-dimensional human hemi-cornea which comprises an immortalized epithelial cell line and keratocytes embedded in a collagen stroma. In the present study, we have used MTT reduction of the whole tissue to clarify whether the production of this complex 3-D-model is transferable into other laboratories and whether these tissues can be constructed reproducibly. Our results demonstrate the reproducible production of the hemi-cornea model according to standard operation procedures using 15 independent batches of reconstructed hemi-cornea models in two independent laboratories each. Furthermore, the hemi-cornea tissues have been treated with 20 chemicals of different eye-irritating potential under blind conditions to assess the performance and limitations of our test system comparing three different prediction models. The most suitable prediction model revealed an overall in vitro-in vivo concordance of 80% and 70% in the participating laboratories, respectively, and an inter-laboratory concordance of 80%. Sensitivity of the test was 77% and specificity was between 57% and 86% to discriminate classified from non-classified chemicals. We conclude that additional physiologically relevant endpoints in both epithelium and stroma have to be developed for the reliable prediction of all GHS classes of eye irritation in one stand alone test system. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. A computer code PACTOLE to predict activation and transport of corrosion products in a PWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beslu, P.; Frejaville, G.; Lalet, A.

    1978-01-01

    Theoretical studies on activation and transport of corrosion products in a PWR primary circuit have been concentrated, at CEA on the development of a computer code : PACTOLE. This code takes into account the major phenomena which govern corrosion products transport: 1. Ion solubility is obtained by usual thermodynamics laws in function of water chemistry: pH at operating temperature is calculated by the code. 2. Release rates of base metals, dissolution rates of deposits, precipitation rates of soluble products are derived from solubility variations. 3. Deposition of solid particles is treated by a model taking into account particle size, brownian and turbulent diffusion and inertial effect. Erosion of deposits is accounted for by a semi-empirical model. After a review of calculational models, an application of PACTOLE is presented in view of analyzing the distribution of in core. (author)

  17. ASAS Centennial Paper: Impact of animal science research on United States goat production and predictions for the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahlu, T; Dawson, L J; Gipson, T A; Hart, S P; Merkel, R C; Puchala, R; Wang, Z; Zeng, S; Goetsch, A L

    2009-01-01

    Goat research in the United States has increased but at a rate less than that in production. Research on goat meat includes nutritional quality, packaging, color, sensory characteristics, and preslaughter management. Goat skins have value for leather, but quality of goat leather has not been extensively studied. Research in the production, quality, antibiotic residues, and sensory characteristics of goat milk and its products has aided development of the US dairy goat industry. Limited progress has been made in genetic improvement of milk or meat production. There is need to explore applications of genomics and proteomics and improve consistency in texture and functionality of goat cheeses. New goat meat and milk products are needed to increase demand and meet the diverse tastes of the American public. Despite research progress in control of mohair and cashmere growth, erratic prices and sale of raw materials have contributed to further declines in US production. Innovative and cooperative ventures are needed for profit sharing up to the consumer level. Internal parasites pose the greatest challenge to goat production in humid areas largely because of anthelmintic resistance. Study of alternative controls is required, including immunity enhancement via nutrition, vaccination, pasture management such as co-grazing with cattle, and genetic resistance. Similarly, the importance of health management is increasing related in part to a lack of effective vaccines for many diseases. Nutrition research should address requirements for vitamins and minerals, efficiencies of protein utilization, adjusting energy requirements for nutritional plane, acclimatization, and grazing conditions, feed intake prediction, and management practices for rapid-growth production systems. Moreover, efficient technology transfer methods are needed to disseminate current knowledge and that gained in future research.

  18. Predicted national productivity implications of calorie and sodium reductions in the American diet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dall, Timothy M; Fulgoni, Victor L; Zhang, Yiduo; Reimers, Kristin J; Packard, Patricia T; Astwood, James D

    2009-01-01

    To model the potential long-term national productivity benefits from reduced daily intake of calories and sodium. Simulation based on secondary data analysis; quantitative research. Measures include absenteeism, presenteeism, disability, and premature mortality under various hypothetical dietary changes. United States. Two hundred twenty-five million adults. Findings come from a Nutrition Impact Model that combines information from national surveys, peer-reviewed studies, and government reports. We compare current estimates of national productivity loss associated with overweight, obesity, and hypertension to estimates for hypothetical scenarios in which national prevalence of these risk factors is lower. Using the simulation model, we illustrate how modest dietary change can achieve lower national prevalence of excess weight and hypertension. We estimate that permanent 100-kcal reductions in daily intake among the overweight/obese would eliminate approximately 71.2 million cases of overweight/obesity. In the long term, this could increase national productivity by $45.7 billion annually. Long-term sodium reductions of 400 mg in those with uncontrolled hypertension would eliminate about 1.5 million cases, potentially increasing productivity by $2.5 billion annually. More aggressive diet changes of 500 kcal and 1100 mg of sodium reductions yield potential productivity benefits of $133.3 and $5.8 billion, respectively. The potential long-term benefit of reduced calories and sodium, combining medical cost savings with productivity increases, ranges from $108.5 billion for moderate reductions to $255.6 billion for aggressive reductions. These findings help inform public health policy and the business case for improving diet. (AmJ Health Promot 2009;23[6]:423-430.)

  19. Existential Concerns About Death

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moestrup, Lene; Hansen, Helle Ploug

    2015-01-01

    psychology or Kübler-Ross’ theory about death stages. The complex concerns might be explained using Martin Heidegger’s phenomenological thinking. We aimed to illuminate dying patients´ existential concerns about the impending death through a descriptive analysis of semi-structured interviews with 17 cancer...... patients in Danish hospices. The main findings demonstrated how the patients faced the forthcoming death without being anxious of death but sorrowful about leaving life. Furthermore, patients expressed that they avoided thinking about death. However, some had reconstructed specific and positive ideas about...... afterlife and made accurate decisions for practical aspects of their death. The patients wished to focus on positive aspects in their daily life at hospice. It hereby seems important to have ongoing reflections and to include different theoretical perspectives when providing existential support to dying...

  20. Models and methods for predicting the release of fission products during hypothetical accidents in HTGRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bailly, H.W.

    1988-01-01

    The paper deals with experiments, computational models and methods used to describe the fission product transport (diffusion and particle failure) in the fuel elements of a pebble-bed high-temperature module reactor (HTGR Module) during hypothetical accidents. The codes which describe the diffusion of fission products in the fuel elements are e.g. GETTER and FRESCO. PANAMA, IA/KWU failure function and the so called GOODIN models describe the particle failure. All these models may be used in the risk analysis. The experimental results obtained at the Nuclear Research Center Julich, Germany are discussed and compared with the model calculations for these experiments

  1. Religiousness, religious doubt, and death anxiety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henrie, James; Patrick, Julie Hicks

    2014-01-01

    Terror Management Theory (TMT) (Greenberg, Pyszczynski, & Solomon, 1986) suggests that culturally-provided worldviews (e.g., religion) may protect individuals from experiencing death anxiety, and several studies have supported this position. However, if one's worldview can offer protection, doubts concerning one's worldview could undermine this protection. The current study investigated whether age, gender, religiousness, and religious doubt were associated with death anxiety. Using data from 635 younger, middle-aged, and older adults, a structural equation model with age, gender, religiousness, and religious doubt predicting death anxiety was tested. The model had a good fit (chi2 (76) = 193.467, p religiousness was inversely associated with death anxiety, while religious doubt was positively associated with death anxiety.

  2. Fatty Liver Index and Lipid Accumulation Product Can Predict Metabolic Syndrome in Subjects without Fatty Liver Disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuan-Lung Cheng

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Fatty liver index (FLI and lipid accumulation product (LAP are indexes originally designed to assess the risk of fatty liver and cardiovascular disease, respectively. Both indexes have been proven to be reliable markers of subsequent metabolic syndrome; however, their ability to predict metabolic syndrome in subjects without fatty liver disease has not been clarified. Methods. We enrolled consecutive subjects who received health check-up services at Taipei Veterans General Hospital from 2002 to 2009. Fatty liver disease was diagnosed by abdominal ultrasonography. The ability of the FLI and LAP to predict metabolic syndrome was assessed by analyzing the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC curve. Results. Male sex was strongly associated with metabolic syndrome, and the LAP and FLI were better than other variables to predict metabolic syndrome among the 29,797 subjects. Both indexes were also better than other variables to detect metabolic syndrome in subjects without fatty liver disease (AUROC: 0.871 and 0.879, resp., and the predictive power was greater among women. Conclusion. Metabolic syndrome increases the cardiovascular disease risk. The FLI and LAP could be used to recognize the syndrome in both subjects with and without fatty liver disease who require lifestyle modifications and counseling.

  3. Early declarative memory predicts productive language: A longitudinal study of deferred imitation and communication at 9 and 16months.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sundqvist, Annette; Nordqvist, Emelie; Koch, Felix-Sebastian; Heimann, Mikael

    2016-11-01

    Deferred imitation (DI) may be regarded as an early declarative-like memory ability shaping the infant's ability to learn about novelties and regularities of the surrounding world. In the current longitudinal study, infants were assessed at 9 and 16months. DI was assessed using five novel objects. Each infant's communicative development was measured by parental questionnaires. The results indicate stability in DI performance and early communicative development between 9 and 16months. The early achievers at 9months were still advanced at 16months. Results also identified a predictive relationship between the infant's gestural development at 9months and the infant's productive and receptive language at 16months. Moreover, the results show that declarative memory, measured with DI, and gestural communication at 9months independently predict productive language at 16months. These findings suggest a connection between the ability to form non-linguistic and linguistic mental representations. These results indicate that the child's DI ability when predominantly preverbal might be regarded as an early domain-general declarative memory ability underlying early productive language development. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Prediction of China's coal production-environmental pollution based on a hybrid genetic algorithm-system dynamics model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu Shiwei; Wei Yiming

    2012-01-01

    This paper proposes a hybrid model based on genetic algorithm (GA) and system dynamics (SD) for coal production–environmental pollution load in China. GA has been utilized in the optimization of the parameters of the SD model to reduce implementation subjectivity. The chain of “Economic development–coal demand–coal production–environmental pollution load” of China in 2030 was predicted, and scenarios were analyzed. Results show that: (1) GA performs well in optimizing the parameters of the SD model objectively and in simulating the historical data; (2) The demand for coal energy continuously increases, although the coal intensity has actually decreased because of China's persistent economic development. Furthermore, instead of reaching a turning point by 2030, the environmental pollution load continuously increases each year even under the scenario where coal intensity decreased by 20% and investment in pollution abatement increased by 20%; (3) For abating the amount of “three types of wastes”, reducing the coal intensity is more effective than reducing the polluted production per tonne of coal and increasing investment in pollution control. - Highlights: ► We propos a GA-SD model for China's coal production-pollution prediction. ► Genetic algorithm (GA) can objectively and accurately optimize parameters of system dynamics (SD) model. ► Environmental pollution in China is projected to grow in our scenarios by 2030. ► The mechanism of reducing waste production per tonne of coal mining is more effective than others.

  5. Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) Overview Sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) is the unexplained death, usually during sleep, of a seemingly healthy baby ... year old. SIDS is sometimes known as crib death because the infants often die in their cribs. ...

  6. Social role conflict predicts stimulated cytokine production among men, not women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schreier, Hannah M C; Hoffer, Lauren C; Chen, Edith

    2016-11-01

    To assess whether perceived role conflict is associated with stimulated pro-inflammatory cytokine production and glucocorticoid sensitivity, and whether these associations are moderated by sex. 153 healthy adults (aged 45.8±5.5years, 78% female) listed their 3 main social roles and indicated the amount of role conflict they perceived between each pair of social roles. Subsequently, participants underwent blood draws and leukocyte response to microbial challenge and glucocorticoid sensitivity were assessed by incubating whole blood with lipopolysaccharide (LPS) in the presence or absence of hydrocortisone. Stimulated levels of Interleukin (IL)-1β, IL-6, IL-8, and tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNFα) were measured. Multiple regression analyses controlling for sociodemographics revealed significant sex×role conflict interactions for LPS-stimulated production of IL-1β, IL-6, and TNFα (all interaction psrole conflict was associated with greater pro-inflammatory cytokine production in response to microbial stimulation only among men, not women. There also were significant sex×role conflict interactions with respect to glucocorticoid sensitivity for IL-1β, IL-6, and TNFα production (all interaction psrole conflict was unrelated to glucocorticoid sensitivity among women, but associated with less sensitivity to glucocorticoid signaling among men. Perceived social role conflict, indicating greater perceived demand across multiple social roles, may take a greater toll on the regulation of inflammatory processes among men compared to women. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. The spin predictions of the relativistic quark model for baryon decuplet production

    CERN Document Server

    Montvay, István

    1973-01-01

    Single-quark scattering contributions are considered in the case of ground-state decuplet baryon production. It is shown within the framework of an explicitly covariant approach that the spin consequences of the quark additivity assumption hold in the t-channel helicity frame independently of much of the details of the model. (12 refs).

  8. Next-to-leading order QCD predictions for the hadronic WH+jet production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Su Jijuan; Ma Wengan; Zhang Renyou; Guo Lei

    2010-01-01

    We calculate the next-to-leading order (NLO) QCD corrections to the WH 0 production in association with a jet at hadron colliders. We study the impacts of the complete NLO QCD radiative corrections to the integrated cross sections, the scale dependence of the cross sections, and the differential cross sections ((dσ/dcosθ), (dσ/dp T )) of the final W-, Higgs boson and jet. We find that the corrections significantly modify the physical observables, and reduce the scale uncertainty of the leading-order cross section. Our results show that by applying the inclusive scheme with p T,j cut =20 GeV and taking m H =120 GeV, μ=μ 0 ≡(1/2)(m W +m H ), the K-factor is 1.15 for the process pp→W ± H 0 j+X at the Tevatron, while the K-factors for the processes pp→W - H 0 j+X and pp→W + H 0 j+X at the LHC are 1.12 and 1.08, respectively. We conclude that to understand the hadronic associated WH 0 production, it is necessary to study the NLO QCD corrections to the WH 0 j production process which is part of the inclusive WH 0 production.

  9. Predicting Longitudinal Change in Language Production and Comprehension in Individuals with Down Syndrome: Hierarchical Linear Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, Robin S.; Hesketh, Linda J.; Kistler, Doris J.

    2002-01-01

    Longitudinal change in syntax comprehension and production skill, measured over six years, was modeled in 31 individuals (ages 5-20) with Down syndrome. The best fitting Hierarchical Linear Modeling model of comprehension uses age and visual and auditory short-term memory as predictors of initial status, and age for growth trajectory. (Contains…

  10. $ZZ$ production at the LHC: NNLO predictions for $2\\ell2\

    CERN Document Server

    Kallweit, Stefan

    We consider QCD radiative corrections to $ZZ$ production for all experimentally relevant leptonic processes. We report on a novel computation of next-to-next-to-leading-order (NNLO) corrections to the diboson signature with two charged leptons and missing transverse energy ($\\ell\\ell$+$E_T^{\\rm miss}$). All relevant final states are considered: $\\ell\\ell\

  11. Prediction of supercritical carbon dioxide drying of food products in packed beds

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Almeida-Rivera, C.; Khalloufi, S.; Bongers, P.M.M.

    2010-01-01

    Drying assisted by supercritical carbon dioxide is foreseen to become a promising technology for sensitive food products. In this contribution, a mathematical model is derived to describe the changes in water concentration in both a solid food matrix and a fluid carrier during drying. Finite

  12. Prediction of significant factors in the production of ethanol by ragi ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    GREGORY

    2011-12-16

    Dec 16, 2011 ... 2Department of Biotechnology Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, International Islamic University Malaysia,. P.O. Box 10, 50728 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Accepted 7 November, 2011. Ethanol production by co-culture of ragi tapai and Saccharomyces cerevisiae from unhydrolyzed cassava starch without ...

  13. Predictive model for consumer preference of a dried, chip-style persimmon product

    Science.gov (United States)

    The State of California is a major producer of Asian persimmons (Diospyros kaki), however, there is limited availability of persimmons outside of this region and the fruit’s short harvest season. A dried, chip-style product could increase the geographic area and timeframe in which persimmon growers...

  14. Use of a predictive protocol to measure the antimicrobial resistance risks associated with biocidal product usage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wesgate, Rebecca; Grasha, Pierre; Maillard, Jean-Yves

    2016-04-01

    In this study we assessed the propensity of biocide exposure in the development of antimicrobial resistance in bacteria. Our protocol is based on reporting changes in established antimicrobial susceptibility profiles in biocides and antibiotics after during use exposure to a product. The during use exposure reflects worse conditions of product use during application. It differs from the term low concentration, which usually reflects a concentration below the minimal inhibitory concentration, but not necessarily a concentration that occurs in practice. Our results showed that exposure to triclosan (0.0004%) was associated with a high risk of developing resistance and cross-resistance in Staphylococcus aureus and Escherichia coli. This was not observed with exposure to chlorhexidine (0.00005%) or a hydrogen peroxide-based biocidal product (in during use conditions). Interestingly, exposure to a low concentration of hydrogen peroxide (0.001%) carried a risk of emerging resistance to antibiotics if the presence of the oxidizing agent was maintained. We observed a number of unstable clinical resistances to antibiotics after exposure to the cationic biocide and oxidizing agent, notably to tobramycin and ticarcillin-clavulanic acid. Using a decision tree based on the change in antimicrobial susceptibility test results, we were able to provide information on the effect of biocide exposure on the development of bacterial resistance to antimicrobials. Such information should address the call from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and European Union Biocidal Products Regulation for manufacturers to provide information on antimicrobial resistance and cross-resistance in bacteria after the use of their product. Copyright © 2016 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Time-series prediction of global solar radiation and of photovoltaic energy production using artificial neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voyant, Cyril

    2011-01-01

    As Corsica is a non-interconnected island, its energy supply is very special case. Indeed, as all islands, a large part of the electricity production must be generated locally. Often, renewable energies are considered as a good solution to overcome the isolation problem. However, because of their intermittent nature, they are included in a limited way in power systems. Thus, it is necessary to use in addition other energy productions, with main problem the management of the dispatch between these two energy types. This study is related to the solar and PV prediction in order to quantify available energy and to allow the optimal transition between intermittent and conventional energies sources. Throughout this work, we tested different techniques of prediction concerning four horizons interesting the power manager: d+1; h+24, h+1 and m+5. After all these manipulations, we can conclude that according the considered horizon, the prioritization of the different predictors varies. Note that for the d+1 horizon, it is interesting to use an approach based on neural network being careful to make stationary the time series, and to use exogenous variables. For the h+1 horizon, a hybrid methodology combining the robustness of the autoregressive models and the non-linearity of the connectionist models provides satisfactory results. For the h+24 case, neural networks with multiple outputs give very good results. About the m+5 horizon, our conclusions are different. Thus, even if neural networks are the most effective, the simplicity and the relatively good results shown by the persistence-based approach, lead us to recommend it. All the proposed methodologies and results are complementary to the prediction studies available in the literature. In conclusion, we can say that methodologies developed could eventually be included as prediction tools in the global command - control systems of energy sources. (author) [fr

  16. [Prediction of 137Cs accumulation in animal products in the territory of Semipalatinsk test site].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spiridonov, S I; Gontarenko, I A; Mukusheva, M K; Fesenko, S V; Semioshkina, N A

    2005-01-01

    The paper describes mathematical models for 137Cs behavior in the organism of horses and sheep pasturing on the bording area to the testing area "Ground Zero" of the Semipalatinsk Test Site. The models are parameterized on the base of the data from an experiment with the breeds of animals now commonly encountered within the Semipalatinsk Test Site. The predictive calculations with the models devised have shown that 137Cs concentrations in milk of horses and sheep pasturingon the testing area to "Ground Zero" can exceed the adopted standards during a long period of time.

  17. Inhibitors of Succinate: Quinone Reductase/Complex II Regulate Production of Mitochondrial Reactive Oxygen Species and Protect Normal Cells from Ischemic Damage but Induce Specific Cancer Cell Death

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Ralph, S.J.; Moreno-Sanchez, R.; Neužil, Jiří; Rodriguez-Enriquez, S.

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 28, č. 11 (2011), s. 2695-2730 ISSN 0724-8741 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z50520701 Keywords : Mitocans * SDH/Complex II * mitochondrial ROS production Subject RIV: CE - Biochemistry Impact factor: 4.093, year: 2011

  18. If I Didn't Laugh I'd Cry: An Essay on Happiness, Productivity, and the Death of Humanities Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srigley, Ron

    2012-01-01

    Productivity has become the raison d'etre of Western capitalist societies, supported by its fundamental principles, quantity and impact. Both of these principles have taken hold in universities, and both place "useful" applications of knowledge above exploration of the human condition, above doubting, questioning, and wondering. The…

  19. Integration of in vitro biorelevant dissolution and in silico PBPK model of carvedilol to predict bioequivalence of oral drug products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibarra, Manuel; Valiante, Cristian; Sopeña, Patricia; Schiavo, Alejandra; Lorier, Marianela; Vázquez, Marta; Fagiolino, Pietro

    2018-06-15

    Bioequivalence implementation in developing countries where a high proportion of similar drug products are being marketed has found several obstacles, impeding regulatory agencies to move forward with this policy. Biopharmaceutical quality of these products, several of which are massively prescribed, remains unknown. In this context, an in vitro-in silico-in vivo approach is proposed as a mean to screen product performance and target specific formulations for bioequivalence assessment. By coupling in vitro biorelevant dissolution testing in USP-4 Apparatus (flow-through cell) with physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling in PK-Sim® software (Bayer, Germany), the performance of seven similar products of carvedilol tablets containing 25 mg available in the Uruguayan market were compared with the brand-name drug Dilatrend®. In silico simulations for Dilatrend® were compared with published results of bioequivalence studies performed in fasting conditions allowing model development through a learning and confirming process. Single-dose pharmacokinetic profiles were then simulated for the brand-name drug and two similar drug products selected according to in vitro observations, in a virtual Caucasian population of 1000 subjects (50% male, aged between 18 and 50 years with standard body-weights). Population bioequivalence ratios were estimated revealing that in vitro differences in drug release would have a major impact in carvedilol maximum plasma concentration, leading to a non-bioequivalence outcome. Predictions support the need to perform in vivo bioequivalence for these products of extensive use. Application of the in vitro-in silico-in vivo approach stands as an interesting alternative to tackle and reduce drug product variability in biopharmaceutical quality. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Lactation Curve Pattern and Prediction of Milk Production Performance in Crossbred Cows

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suresh Jingar

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Data pertaining to 11728 test-day daily milk yields of normal and mastitis Karan Fries cows were collected from the institute herd and divided as mastitis and nonmastitis and parity-wise. The data of lactation curves of the normal and mastitis crossbred cows was analyzed using gamma type function. FTDMY in normal and mastitis cows showed an increasing trend from TD-1 to TD-4 and a gradual decrease (P<0.01 thereafter until the end of lactation (TD-21 in different parities. The FTDMY was maximum (peak yield in the fourth parity. Parity-wise lactation curve revealed a decrease in persistency, steeper decline in descending slope (c, and steeper increase in ascending slope (b from 1st to 5th and above parity. The higher coefficient of determination (R2 and lower root mean square error (RMSE indicated goodness and accuracy of the model for the prediction of milk prediction performance under field conditions. Clinical mastitis resulted in a significantly higher loss of milk yield (P<0.05. The FTDMY was maximum (P<0.05 in the fourth parity in comparison to the rest of parity. It is demonstrated that gamma type function can give the best fit lactation curve in normal and mastitis infected crossbred cows.

  1. The information value of early career productivity in mathematics: a ROC analysis of prediction errors in bibliometricly informed decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindahl, Jonas; Danell, Rickard

    The aim of this study was to provide a framework to evaluate bibliometric indicators as decision support tools from a decision making perspective and to examine the information value of early career publication rate as a predictor of future productivity. We used ROC analysis to evaluate a bibliometric indicator as a tool for binary decision making. The dataset consisted of 451 early career researchers in the mathematical sub-field of number theory. We investigated the effect of three different definitions of top performance groups-top 10, top 25, and top 50 %; the consequences of using different thresholds in the prediction models; and the added prediction value of information on early career research collaboration and publications in prestige journals. We conclude that early career performance productivity has an information value in all tested decision scenarios, but future performance is more predictable if the definition of a high performance group is more exclusive. Estimated optimal decision thresholds using the Youden index indicated that the top 10 % decision scenario should use 7 articles, the top 25 % scenario should use 7 articles, and the top 50 % should use 5 articles to minimize prediction errors. A comparative analysis between the decision thresholds provided by the Youden index which take consequences into consideration and a method commonly used in evaluative bibliometrics which do not take consequences into consideration when determining decision thresholds, indicated that differences are trivial for the top 25 and the 50 % groups. However, a statistically significant difference between the methods was found for the top 10 % group. Information on early career collaboration and publication strategies did not add any prediction value to the bibliometric indicator publication rate in any of the models. The key contributions of this research is the focus on consequences in terms of prediction errors and the notion of transforming uncertainty

  2. Machine Learning meets Mathematical Optimization to predict the optimal production of offshore wind parks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fischetti, Martina; Fraccaro, Marco

    2018-01-01

    In this paper we propose a combination of Mathematical Optimization and Machine Learning to estimate the value of optimized solutions. In particular, we investigate if a machine, trained on a large number of optimized solutions, could accurately estimate the value of the optimized solution for new...... in production between optimized/non optimized solutions, it is not trivial to understand the potential value of a new site without running a complete optimization. This could be too time consuming if a lot of sites need to be evaluated, therefore we propose to use Machine Learning to quickly estimate...... the potential of new sites (i.e., to estimate the optimized production of a site without explicitly running the optimization). To do so, we trained and tested different Machine Learning models on a dataset of 3000+ optimized layouts found by the optimizer. Thanks to the close collaboration with a leading...

  3. Damage to the anterior arcuate fasciculus predicts non-fluent speech production in aphasia

    OpenAIRE

    Fridriksson, Julius; Guo, Dazhou; Fillmore, Paul; Holland, Audrey; Rorden, Chris

    2013-01-01

    Non-fluent aphasia implies a relatively straightforward neurological condition characterized by limited speech output. However, it is an umbrella term for different underlying impairments affecting speech production. Several studies have sought the critical lesion location that gives rise to non-fluent aphasia. The results have been mixed but typically implicate anterior cortical regions such as Broca’s area, the left anterior insula, and deep white matter regions. To provide a clearer pictur...

  4. Automated information system for analysis and prediction of production situations in blast furnace plant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavrov, V. V.; Spirin, N. A.

    2016-09-01

    Advances in modern science and technology are inherently connected with the development, implementation, and widespread use of computer systems based on mathematical modeling. Algorithms and computer systems are gaining practical significance solving a range of process tasks in metallurgy of MES-level (Manufacturing Execution Systems - systems controlling industrial process) of modern automated information systems at the largest iron and steel enterprises in Russia. This fact determines the necessity to develop information-modeling systems based on mathematical models that will take into account the physics of the process, the basics of heat and mass exchange, the laws of energy conservation, and also the peculiarities of the impact of technological and standard characteristics of raw materials on the manufacturing process data. Special attention in this set of operations for metallurgic production is devoted to blast-furnace production, as it consumes the greatest amount of energy, up to 50% of the fuel used in ferrous metallurgy. The paper deals with the requirements, structure and architecture of BF Process Engineer's Automated Workstation (AWS), a computer decision support system of MES Level implemented in the ICS of the Blast Furnace Plant at Magnitogorsk Iron and Steel Works. It presents a brief description of main model subsystems as well as assumptions made in the process of mathematical modelling. Application of the developed system allows the engineering and process staff to analyze online production situations in the blast furnace plant, to solve a number of process tasks related to control of heat, gas dynamics and slag conditions of blast-furnace smelting as well as to calculate the optimal composition of blast-furnace slag, which eventually results in increasing technical and economic performance of blast-furnace production.

  5. Winter climate and plant productivity predict abundances of small herbivores in central Europe

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Tkadlec, Emil; Zbořil, J.; Losík, J.; Gregor, P.; Lisická, L.

    2006-01-01

    Roč. 32, č. 2 (2006), s. 99-108 ISSN 0936-577X R&D Projects: GA ČR GA206/04/2003 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60930519 Keywords : climate effects * common vole * European hare * NAO * plant productivity * crop yield Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 1.519, year: 2006 http://www.int-res.com/articles/cr_oa/c032p099.pdf

  6. Perioperative plasma concentrations of stable nitric oxide products are predictive of cognitive dysfunction after laparoscopic cholecystectomy.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Iohom, G

    2012-02-03

    In this study our objectives were to determine the incidence of postoperative cognitive dysfunction (POCD) after laparoscopic cholecystectomy under sevoflurane anesthesia in patients aged >40 and <85 yr and to examine the associations between plasma concentrations of i) S-100beta protein and ii) stable nitric oxide (NO) products and POCD in this clinical setting. Neuropsychological tests were performed on 42 ASA physical status I-II patients the day before, and 4 days and 6 wk after surgery. Patient spouses (n = 13) were studied as controls. Cognitive dysfunction was defined as deficit in one or more cognitive domain(s). Serial measurements of serum concentrations of S-100beta protein and plasma concentrations of stable NO products (nitrate\\/nitrite, NOx) were performed perioperatively. Four days after surgery, new cognitive deficit was present in 16 (40%) patients and in 1 (7%) control subject (P = 0.01). Six weeks postoperatively, new cognitive deficit was present in 21 (53%) patients and 3 (23%) control subjects (P = 0.03). Compared with the "no deficit" group, patients who demonstrated a new cognitive deficit 4 days postoperatively had larger plasma NOx at each perioperative time point (P < 0.05 for each time point). Serum S-100beta protein concentrations were similar in the 2 groups. In conclusion, preoperative (and postoperative) plasma concentrations of stable NO products (but not S-100beta) are associated with early POCD. The former represents a potential biochemical predictor of POCD.

  7. Quantifying and predicting meat and meat products quality attributes using electromagnetic waves: an overview.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damez, Jean-Louis; Clerjon, Sylvie

    2013-12-01

    The meat industry needs reliable meat quality information throughout the production process in order to guarantee high-quality meat products for consumers. Besides laboratory researches, food scientists often try to adapt their tools to industrial conditions and easy handling devices useable on-line and in slaughterhouses already exist. This paper overviews the recently developed approaches and latest research efforts related to assessing the quality of different meat products by electromagnetic waves and examines the potential for their deployment. The main meat quality traits that can be assessed using electromagnetic waves are sensory characteristics, chemical composition, physicochemical properties, health-protecting properties, nutritional characteristics and safety. A wide range of techniques, from low frequency, high frequency impedance measurement, microwaves, NMR, IR and UV light, to X-ray interaction, involves a wide range of physical interactions between the electromagnetic wave and the sample. Some of these techniques are now in a period of transition between experimental and applied utilization and several sensors and instruments are reviewed. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Predicting Success in Product Development: The Application of Principal Component Analysis to Categorical Data and Binomial Logistic Regression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Glauco H.S. Mendes

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Critical success factors in new product development (NPD in the Brazilian small and medium enterprises (SMEs are identified and analyzed. Critical success factors are best practices that can be used to improve NPD management and performance in a company. However, the traditional method for identifying these factors is survey methods. Subsequently, the collected data are reduced through traditional multivariate analysis. The objective of this work is to develop a logistic regression model for predicting the success or failure of the new product development. This model allows for an evaluation and prioritization of resource commitments. The results will be helpful for guiding management actions, as one way to improve NPD performance in those industries.

  9. Beliefs about the Potential Impacts of Exploiting Non-Timber Forest Products Predict Voluntary Participation in Monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dantas Brites, Alice; Morsello, Carla

    2017-06-01

    Harvesting and trading non-timber forest products is advocated as a win-win strategy for conservation and development, yet it can produce negative ecological and socioeconomic impacts. Hence, monitoring exploitation outcomes is essential, and participatory monitoring has been suggested to be the most suitable approach. Among possible approaches, participatory monitoring is preferred because it is likely to increase people's awareness and beliefs regarding impacts or potential impacts, thus inducing behavioral changes, although the evidence in this regard is contradictory. We therefore evaluated whether people's beliefs about the potential ecological and socioeconomic impacts of non-timber forest product exploitation increased their likelihood of volunteering to monitor. We studied a community of forest inhabitants in the Brazilian Amazon who harvested and traded a commercially important non-timber forest product. Two methods of data gathering were employed: (i) a survey of 166 adults (51 households) to evaluate people's beliefs and their stated intention to engage in four different monitoring tasks and (ii) four pilot monitoring tasks to evaluate who actually participated. Based on mixed-effects regressions, the results indicated that beliefs regarding both types of impacts could predict participation in certain tasks, although gender, age and schooling were occasionally stronger predictors. On average, people had stronger beliefs about potential socioeconomic impacts than about potential ecological impacts, with the former also predicting participation in ecological data gathering. This finding reinforces the importance of monitoring both types of impacts to help achieve the win-win outcomes originally proposed by non-timber forest product trade initiatives.

  10. Programmed cell death

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-12-31

    The purpose of this conference to provide a multidisciplinary forum for exchange of state-of-the-art information on the role programmed cell death plays in normal development and homeostasis of many organisms. This volume contains abstracts of papers in the following areas: invertebrate development; immunology/neurology; bcl-2 family; biochemistry; programmed cell death in viruses; oncogenesis; vertebrate development; and diseases.

  11. BRAIN DEATH DIAGNOSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Calixto Machado

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Brain death (BD diagnosis should be established based on the following set of principles, i.e. excluding major confusing factors, identifying the cause of coma, determining irreversibility, and precisely testing brainstem reflexes at all levels of the brainstem. Nonetheless, most criteria for BD diagnosis do not mention that this is not the only way of diagnosing death. The Cuban Commission for the Determination of Death has emphasized the aforesaid three possible situations for diagnosing death: a outside intensive care environment (without life support physicians apply the cardio-circulatory and respiratory criteria; b in forensic medicine circumstances, physicians utilize cadaveric signs (they do not even need a stethoscope; c in the intensive care environment (with life support when cardiorespiratory arrest occurs physicians utilize the cardio-circulatory and respiratory criteria. This methodology of diagnosing death, based on finding any of the death signs, is not related to the concept that there are different types of death. The irreversible loss of cardio-circulatory and respiratory functions can only cause death when ischemia and anoxia are prolonged enough to produce an irreversible destruction of the brain. The sign of irreversible loss of brain functions, that is to say BD diagnosis, is fully reviewed.

  12. Computational and experimental prediction of dust production in pebble bed reactors, Part II

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mie Hiruta; Gannon Johnson; Maziar Rostamian; Gabriel P. Potirniche; Abderrafi M. Ougouag; Massimo Bertino; Louis Franzel; Akira Tokuhiro

    2013-10-01

    This paper is the continuation of Part I, which describes the high temperature and high pressure helium environment wear tests of graphite–graphite in frictional contact. In the present work, it has been attempted to simulate a Pebble Bed Reactor core environment as compared to Part I. The experimental apparatus, which is a custom-designed tribometer, is capable of performing wear tests at PBR relevant higher temperatures and pressures under a helium environment. This environment facilitates prediction of wear mass loss of graphite as dust particulates from the pebble bed. The experimental results of high temperature helium environment are used to anticipate the amount of wear mass produced in a pebble bed nuclear reactor.

  13. Numerical modeling of flow processes inside geothermal wells: An approach for predicting production characteristics with uncertainties

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia-Valladares, O.; Santoyo, E. [Centro de Investigacion en Energia (UNAM), Privada Xochicalco s/n, Temixco, Mor. 62580 (Mexico); Sanchez-Upton, P. [Posgrado en Ingenieria (Energia), UNAM, Privada Xochicalco s/n, Temixco, Mor. 62580 (Mexico)

    2006-07-15

    One dimensional steady and transient numerical modeling for describing the heat and fluid dynamic transport inside geothermal wells has been conducted. The mass, momentum and energy governing equations were solved using a segregated numerical scheme. Discretized governing equations for the fluid flow were coupled and solved with a fully implicit step by step method. The mathematical formulation used suitable empirical correlations for estimating the convective heat transfer coefficients as well as the shear stress and the void fraction parameters. Heat conduction across the wellbore materials was solved by an implicit central difference numerical scheme using the tri-diagonal matrix algorithm (TDMA). The flow characteristics of producer geothermal wells (pressure, temperature, enthalpy, heat fluxes, etc.) at each depth node were computed. Analytical data reported in the literature were used to validate the numerical capability of the wellbore simulator developed for this study (GEOWELLS). This simulator, together with another computer code (ORKISZEWSKI), was applied for modeling the heat and fluid flow processes inside some wells drilled in Mexican geothermal fields. The simulated pressure and temperature profiles were statistically compared against stable measured field data (through the computation of the residual sum of squares and Chi-square). A good agreement between the simulated and measured profiles of pressure and temperature was consistently obtained, having the best matching results for the GEOWELLS predictions. An analysis of the sensitivity and uncertainty was finally conducted to estimate the confidence to be accorded the simulation results predicted by GEOWELLS. Matching the sensitivity to variations in some input parameters (e.g., pressure, temperature, enthalpy and void fraction) was examined. The void fraction was identified as one of the most important parameters that affect the GEOWELLS simulations for matching measured field data correctly

  14. Numerical modeling of flow processes inside geothermal wells: An approach for predicting production characteristics with uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia-Valladares, O.; Sanchez-Upton, P.; Santoyo, E.

    2006-01-01

    One dimensional steady and transient numerical modeling for describing the heat and fluid dynamic transport inside geothermal wells has been conducted. The mass, momentum and energy governing equations were solved using a segregated numerical scheme. Discretized governing equations for the fluid flow were coupled and solved with a fully implicit step by step method. The mathematical formulation used suitable empirical correlations for estimating the convective heat transfer coefficients as well as the shear stress and the void fraction parameters. Heat conduction across the wellbore materials was solved by an implicit central difference numerical scheme using the tri-diagonal matrix algorithm (TDMA). The flow characteristics of producer geothermal wells (pressure, temperature, enthalpy, heat fluxes, etc.) at each depth node were computed. Analytical data reported in the literature were used to validate the numerical capability of the wellbore simulator developed for this study (GEOWELLS). This simulator, together with another computer code (ORKISZEWSKI), was applied for modeling the heat and fluid flow processes inside some wells drilled in Mexican geothermal fields. The simulated pressure and temperature profiles were statistically compared against stable measured field data (through the computation of the residual sum of squares and Chi-square). A good agreement between the simulated and measured profiles of pressure and temperature was consistently obtained, having the best matching results for the GEOWELLS predictions. An analysis of the sensitivity and uncertainty was finally conducted to estimate the confidence to be accorded the simulation results predicted by GEOWELLS. Matching the sensitivity to variations in some input parameters (e.g., pressure, temperature, enthalpy and void fraction) was examined. The void fraction was identified as one of the most important parameters that affect the GEOWELLS simulations for matching measured field data correctly

  15. Sudden cardiac death

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neeraj Parakh

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Sudden cardiac death is one of the most common cause of mortality worldwide. Despite significant advances in the medical science, there is little improvement in the sudden cardiac death related mortality. Coronary artery disease is the most common etiology behind sudden cardiac death, in the above 40 years population. Even in the apparently healthy population, there is a small percentage of patients dying from sudden cardiac death. Given the large denominator, this small percentage contributes to the largest burden of sudden cardiac death. Identification of this at risk group among the apparently healthy individual is a great challenge for the medical fraternity. This article looks into the causes and methods of preventing SCD and at some of the Indian data. Details of Brugada syndrome, Long QT syndrome, Genetics of SCD are discussed. Recent guidelines on many of these causes are summarised.

  16. Death with dignity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allmark, P.

    2002-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to develop a conception of death with dignity and to examine whether it is vulnerable to the sort of criticisms that have been made of other conceptions. In this conception "death" is taken to apply to the process of dying; "dignity" is taken to be something that attaches to people because of their personal qualities. In particular, someone lives with dignity if they live well (in accordance with reason, as Aristotle would see it). It follows that health care professionals cannot confer on patients either dignity or death with dignity. They can, however, attempt to ensure that the patient dies without indignity. Indignities are affronts to human dignity, and include such things as serious pain and the exclusion of patients from involvement in decisions about their lives and deaths. This fairly modest conception of death with dignity avoids the traps of being overly subjective or of viewing the sick and helpless as "undignified". PMID:12161582

  17. Prediction of Fission Product Release during the LOFC Experiments at the HTTR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shi, D.; Xhonneux, A.; Verfondern, K.; Ueta, S.; Allelein, H.-J.

    2014-01-01

    Demonstration tests were conducted using the High Temperature Engineering Test Reactor (HTTR) in Oarai, Japan, to confirm the safety of HTGR technologies and assure the expected physical phenomena to occur under given conditions. As part of the OECD directed LOFC (“loss of forced cooling”) project, a series of three tests at the HTTR has been planned with tripping of all gas circulators while deactivating all reactor reactivity control to disallow reactor scram due to abnormal reduction of primary coolant flow rate. The tests fall into anticipated transient without scram (ATWS) with occurrence of reactor recriticality. They serve the important purpose to provide a valuable data base for the validation of computer models regarding neutronics, heat transfer and fluid dynamics, fuel performance and fission product transport and release behavior in HTGRs. The Source Term Analysis Code System (STACY) is a new code development at the Research Center Jülich encompassing the original verified and validated computer models for simulating fission product transport and release. For verification of the modernized and extended version, it was assured that results obtained with the original tools could be reproduced. One of the new features of STACY is its ability to also treat fuel compacts of (full) cylindrical or annular shape and a complete prismatic block reactor core, respectively, supposed sufficient input data be available. The paper will describe the new STACY tool and present the results of fission product behavior in the HTTR core under the LOFC test conditions. Calculations are based on time-dependent neutronics and fluid dynamics results obtained with the Serpent and MGT models. (author)

  18. Global gradients in vertebrate diversity predicted by historical area-productivity dynamics and contemporary environment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Walter Jetz

    Full Text Available Broad-scale geographic gradients in species richness have now been extensively documented, but their historical underpinning is still not well understood. While the importance of productivity, temperature, and a scale dependence of the determinants of diversity is broadly acknowledged, we argue here that limitation to a single analysis scale and data pseudo-replication have impeded an integrated evolutionary and ecological understanding of diversity gradients. We develop and apply a hierarchical analysis framework for global diversity gradients that incorporates an explicit accounting of past environmental variation and provides an appropriate measurement of richness. Due to environmental niche conservatism, organisms generally reside in climatically defined bioregions, or "evolutionary arenas," characterized by in situ speciation and extinction. These bioregions differ in age and their total productivity and have varied over time in area and energy available for diversification. We show that, consistently across the four major terrestrial vertebrate groups, current-day species richness of the world's main 32 bioregions is best explained by a model that integrates area and productivity over geological time together with temperature. Adding finer scale variation in energy availability as an ecological predictor of within-bioregional patterns of richness explains much of the remaining global variation in richness at the 110 km grain. These results highlight the separate evolutionary and ecological effects of energy availability and provide a first conceptual and empirical integration of the key drivers of broad-scale richness gradients. Avoiding the pseudo-replication that hampers the evolutionary interpretation of non-hierarchical macroecological analyses, our findings integrate evolutionary and ecological mechanisms at their most relevant scales and offer a new synthesis regarding global diversity gradients.

  19. Accuracy of the paracetamol-aminotransferase multiplication product to predict hepatotoxicity in modified-release paracetamol overdose.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Anselm; Sivilotti, Marco L A; Graudins, Andis

    2017-06-01

    The paracetamol-aminotransferase multiplication product (APAP × ALT) is a risk predictor of hepatotoxicity that is somewhat independent of time and type of ingestion. However, its accuracy following ingestion of modified-release formulations is not known, as the product has been derived and validated after immediate-release paracetamol overdoses. The aim of this retrospective cohort study was to evaluate the accuracy of the multiplication product to predict hepatotoxicity in a cohort of patients with modified-release paracetamol overdose. We assessed all patients with modified-release paracetamol overdose presenting to our hospital network from October 2009 to July 2016. Ingestion of a modified-release formulation was identified by patient self-report or retrieval of the original container. Hepatotoxicity was defined as peak alanine aminotransferase ≥1000 IU/L, and acute liver injury (ALI) as a doubling of baseline ALT to more than 50 IU/L. Of 1989 paracetamol overdose presentations, we identified 73 modified-release paracetamol exposures treated with acetylcysteine. Five patients developed hepatotoxicity, including one who received acetylcysteine within eight hours of an acute ingestion. No patient with an initial multiplication product paracetamol overdose treated with acetylcysteine, the paracetamol-aminotransferase multiplication product demonstrated similar accuracy and temporal profile to previous reports involving mostly immediate-release formulations. Above a cut-point of 10,000 mg/L × IU/L, it was very strongly associated with the development of acute liver injury and hepatotoxicity, especially when calculated more than eight hours post-ingestion. When below 1500 mg/L × IU/L the likelihood of developing hepatotoxicity was very low. Persistently high serial multiplication product calculations were associated with the greatest risk of hepatotoxicity.

  20. T2K Replica Target Hadron Production Measurements in NA61/SHINE and T2K Neutrino Flux Predictions

    CERN Document Server

    AUTHOR|(SzGeCERN)710687

    Accelerator based neutrino experiments generate their neutrino beams by impinging high energy protons on thick targets. The neutrino beam predictions are thus based on modeling the interactions of the beam protons inside the targets. Different hadronic models can be used with different accuracies depending on the energy range of the incident protons and on the target material. Nevertheless, none of the models can be seen as perfectly describing all different interactions. In order to reach high precision neutrino flux predictions, it is thus mandatory to be able to test and constrain the models with hadron production measurements. The T2K experiment in Japan uses the ancillary NA61/SHINE facility at CERN to constrain the production of hadrons resulting from the interactions of proton beam particles impinging on a 90cm long graphite target. Data taken by NA61/SHINE with a 30 GeV proton beam on a thin (4% interaction length) graphite target have been recorded in 2007 and 2009. They have been analysed and extens...

  1. NLO predictions for the production of a (750 GeV) spin-two particle at the LHC

    CERN Document Server

    Das, Goutam; Hirschi, Valentin; Maltoni, Fabio; Shao, Hua-Sheng

    2017-07-10

    We obtain predictions accurate at the next-to-leading order in QCD for the production of a generic spin-two particle in the most relevant channels at the LHC: production in association with colored particles (inclusive, one jet, two jets and $t\\bar t$), with vector bosons ($Z,W^\\pm,\\gamma$) and with the Higgs boson. We present total and differential cross sections as well as branching ratios corresponding to a spin-2 particle of 750 GeV of mass, possibly with non-universal couplings to standard model particles, at 13 TeV of center-of-mass energy. We find that the next-to-leading order corrections give rise to sizeable $K$ factors for many channels, in some cases exposing the unitarity-violating behaviour of non-universal couplings scenarios, and in general greatly reduce the theoretical uncertainties. Our predictions are publicly available in the \\amc\\ framework and can, therefore, be directly used in experimental simulations for any value of the mass and couplings.

  2. Spatial extrapolation of light use efficiency model parameters to predict gross primary production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karsten Schulz

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available To capture the spatial and temporal variability of the gross primary production as a key component of the global carbon cycle, the light use efficiency modeling approach in combination with remote sensing data has shown to be well suited. Typically, the model parameters, such as the maximum light use efficiency, are either set to a universal constant or to land class dependent values stored in look-up tables. In this study, we employ the machine learning technique support vector regression to explicitly relate the model parameters of a light use efficiency model calibrated at several FLUXNET sites to site-specific characteristics obtained by meteorological measurements, ecological estimations and remote sensing data. A feature selection algorithm extracts the relevant site characteristics in a cross-validation, and leads to an individual set of characteristic attributes for each parameter. With this set of attributes, the model parameters can be estimated at sites where a parameter calibration is not possible due to the absence of eddy covariance flux measurement data. This will finally allow a spatially continuous model application. The performance of the spatial extrapolation scheme is evaluated with a cross-validation approach, which shows the methodology to be well suited to recapture the variability of gross primary production across the study sites.

  3. Prediction of palladium-103 production using the Monte Carlo code MCNPX