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Sample records for death products predict

  1. Circulating cell death products predict clinical outcome of colorectal cancer patients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koelink, Pim J; Lamers, Cornelis BHW; Hommes, Daan W; Verspaget, Hein W

    2009-01-01

    Tumor cell death generates products that can be measured in the circulation of cancer patients. CK18-Asp396 (M30 antigen) is a caspase-degraded product of cytokeratin 18 (CK18), produced by apoptotic epithelial cells, and is elevated in breast and lung cancer patients. We determined the CK18-Asp396 and total CK18 levels in plasma of 49 colorectal cancer patients, before and after surgical resection of the tumor, by ELISA. Correlations with patient and tumor characteristics were determined by Kruskal-Wallis H and Mann-Whitney U tests. Disease-free survival was determined using Kaplan-Meier methodology with Log Rank tests, and univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis. Plasma CK18-Asp396 and total CK18 levels in colorectal cancer patients were related to disease stage and tumor diameter, and were predictive of disease-free survival, independent of disease-stage, with hazard ratios (HR) of patients with high levels (> median) compared to those with low levels (≤ median) of 3.58 (95% CI: 1.17–11.02) and 3.58 (95% CI: 0.97–7.71), respectively. The CK18-Asp396/CK18 ratio, which decreased with tumor progression, was also predictive of disease-free survival, with a low ratio (≤ median) associated with worse disease-free survival: HR 2.78 (95% CI: 1.06–7.19). Remarkably, the plasma CK18-Asp396 and total CK18 levels after surgical removal of the tumor were also predictive of disease-free survival, with patients with high levels having a HR of 3.78 (95% CI: 0.77–18.50) and 4.12 (95% CI: 0.84–20.34), respectively, indicating that these parameters can be used also to monitor patients after surgery. CK18-Asp396 and total CK18 levels in the circulation of colorectal cancer patients are predictive of tumor progression and prognosis and might be helpful for treatment selection and monitoring of these patients

  2. Prediction and Prevention of Sudden Cardiac Death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morin, Daniel P; Homoud, Munther K; Estes, N A Mark

    2017-12-01

    Sudden death is a major problem, with significant impact on public health. Many conditions predispose to sudden cardiac death and sudden cardiac arrest (SCA), foremost among them coronary artery disease, and an effective therapy exists in the form of the implantable cardioverter defibrillator. Risk stratification for SCA remains imperfect, especially for patients with nonischemic cardiomyopathy. Ongoing trials may make it easier to identify those at high risk, and potentially those at very low risk, in the future. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Predicting death from surgery for lung cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    O'Dowd, Emma L; Lüchtenborg, Margreet; Baldwin, David R

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: Current British guidelines advocate the use of risk prediction scores such as Thoracoscore to estimate mortality prior to radical surgery for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). A recent publication used the National Lung Cancer Audit (NLCA) to produce a score to predict 90day mortali...... of our summary tables that provide the real-life range of mortality for lobectomy and pneumonectomy....

  4. Hypoxemia predicts death from severe falciparum malaria among ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2014-06-02

    Jun 2, 2014 ... difficult for physicians working in resource poor settings, where facilities for objective detection of hypoxaemia, ... Physicians practicing in such resource-poor settings. Hypoxemia predicts death from severe .... doctors and the research assistant were trained on the use and care of pulse oximeters before the ...

  5. Extremes of shock index predicts death in trauma patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen R Odom

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Context: We noted a bimodal relationship between mortality and shock index (SI, the ratio of heart rate to systolic blood pressure. Aims: To determine if extremes of SI can predict mortality in trauma patients. Settings and Designs: Retrospective evaluation of adult trauma patients at a tertiary care center from 2000 to 2012 in the United States. Materials and Methods: We examined the SI in trauma patients and determined the adjusted mortality for patients with and without head injuries. Statistical Analysis Used: Descriptive statistics and multivariable logistic regression. Results: SI values demonstrated a U-shaped relationship with mortality. Compared with patients with a SI between 0.5 and 0.7, patients with a SI of 1.3 had an odds ratio of death of 3.1. (95% CI 1.6–5.9. Elevated SI is associated with increased mortality in patients with isolated torso injuries, and is associated with death at both low and high values in patients with head injury. Conclusion: Our data indicate a bimodal relationship between SI and mortality in head injured patients that persists after correction for various co-factors. The distribution of mortality is different between head injured patients and patients without head injuries. Elevated SI predicts death in all trauma patients, but low SI values only predict death in head injured patients.

  6. Factors predicting a home death among home palliative care recipients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ko, Ming-Chung; Huang, Sheng-Jean; Chen, Chu-Chieh; Chang, Yu-Ping; Lien, Hsin-Yi; Lin, Jia-Yi; Woung, Lin-Chung; Chan, Shang-Yih

    2017-10-01

    Awareness of factors affecting the place of death could improve communication between healthcare providers and patients and their families regarding patient preferences and the feasibility of dying in the preferred place.This study aimed to evaluate factors predicting home death among home palliative care recipients.This is a population-based study using a national representative sample retrieved from the National Health Insurance Research Database. Subjects receiving home palliative care, from 2010 to 2012, were analyzed to evaluate the association between a home death and various characteristics related to illness, individual, and health care utilization. A multiple-logistic regression model was used to assess the independent effect of various characteristics on the likelihood of a home death.The overall rate of a home death for home palliative care recipients was 43.6%. Age; gender; urbanization of the area where the patients lived; illness; the total number of home visits by all health care professionals; the number of home visits by nurses; utilization of nasogastric tube, endotracheal tube, or indwelling urinary catheter; the number of emergency department visits; and admission to intensive care unit in previous 1 year were not significantly associated with the risk of a home death. Physician home visits increased the likelihood of a home death. Compared with subjects without physician home visits (31.4%) those with 1 physician home visit (53.0%, adjusted odds ratio [AOR]: 3.23, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.93-5.42) and those with ≥2 physician home visits (43.9%, AOR: 2.23, 95% CI: 1.06-4.70) had higher likelihood of a home death. Compared with subjects with hospitalization 0 to 6 times in previous 1 year, those with hospitalization ≥7 times in previous 1 year (AOR: 0.57, 95% CI: 0.34-0.95) had lower likelihood of a home death.Among home palliative care recipients, physician home visits increased the likelihood of a home death. Hospitalizations ≥7

  7. Predictive factors associated with death of elderly in nursing homes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sung, Kiwol

    2014-06-01

    An increasing elderly population reflects a great need for readily accessible, clinically useful methods to identify mortality-related factors in nursing home residents. The purpose of this study was to identify factors associated with the deaths of nursing home residents. Data was collected from a Minimal Data Set of 195 elderly nursing home residents, followed by analysis of demographic factors, disease and nursing condition factors, Activities of Daily Living (ADL), cognitive function, behavioral patterns, and dysfunctional status. Major factors associated with death among nursing home residents were identified as dyspnea (odds ratio [OR] = 4.88), problematic behaviors (OR = 3.95), and ADL (OR = 3.61). These variables accounted for 31.1% of the variance in death. Dyspnea, problematic behaviors, and ADL data were identified as the key factors associated with death among nursing home residents. Future plans for the prediction of death among nursing home residents can be made by nursing staff, factoring in these identified variables, to ensure more comfortable conditions and more responsive care. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  8. Predicting safe sandwich production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Birk, Tina; Duan, Zhi; Møller, Cleide Oliveira de Almeida

    2014-01-01

    Time and temperature control is crucial to avoid growth of pathogens during production and serving of cold ready-to-eat meals. The Danish guidelines state that chilled foods, such as sandwiches, should not be outside the cold chain for more than 3 hours including the time for preparation and serv......Time and temperature control is crucial to avoid growth of pathogens during production and serving of cold ready-to-eat meals. The Danish guidelines state that chilled foods, such as sandwiches, should not be outside the cold chain for more than 3 hours including the time for preparation...... and serving. However, Danish sandwich producing companies find it challenging to comply with this and have expressed a need for more flexibility. The Danish guidelines do allow for a prolongation of the acceptable time outside the cold chain, if the safety of the specific production can be documented....... There is, therefore, room for developing targeted tools for evaluating the time-temperature scenarios in sandwich production. This study describes a decision support tool developed to offer the producers more flexibility. Based on time/temperature measurements obtained during preparation combined...

  9. DeepDeath: Learning to predict the underlying cause of death with Big Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassanzadeh, Hamid Reza; Ying Sha; Wang, May D

    2017-07-01

    Multiple cause-of-death data provides a valuable source of information that can be used to enhance health standards by predicting health related trajectories in societies with large populations. These data are often available in large quantities across U.S. states and require Big Data techniques to uncover complex hidden patterns. We design two different classes of models suitable for large-scale analysis of mortality data, a Hadoop-based ensemble of random forests trained over N-grams, and the DeepDeath, a deep classifier based on the recurrent neural network (RNN). We apply both classes to the mortality data provided by the National Center for Health Statistics and show that while both perform significantly better than the random classifier, the deep model that utilizes long short-term memory networks (LSTMs), surpasses the N-gram based models and is capable of learning the temporal aspect of the data without a need for building ad-hoc, expert-driven features.

  10. Prediction of time of death after withdrawal of life-sustaining treatment in potential donors after cardiac death*.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wind, Jentina; Snoeijs, Maarten G J; Brugman, Cees A; Vervelde, Janneke; Zwaveling, Janharm; van Mook, Walther N; van Heurn, Ernest L

    2012-03-01

    Organ donation after cardiac death increases the number of donor organs. In controlled donation after cardiac death donors, the period between withdrawal of life-sustaining treatment and cardiac arrest is one of the parameters used to assess whether organs are suitable for transplantation. The objective of this study was to identify donation after cardiac death donor characteristics that affect the interval between withdrawal of life-sustaining treatment and cardiac death. Prospective multicenter study of observational data. All potential donation after cardiac death donors in The Netherlands between May 2007 and June 2009 were identified. None. Of the 242 potential donation after cardiac death donors, 211 entered analysis, 76% of them died within 60 mins, and 83% died within 120 mins after withdrawal of life-sustaining treatment. The median time to death was 20 mins (range 1 min to 3.8 days). Controlled mechanical ventilation, use of norepinephrine, absence of reflexes, neurologic deficit as cause of death, and absence of cardiovascular comorbidity were associated with death within 60 and 120 mins. The use of analgesics, sedatives, or extubation did not significantly influence the moment of death. In the multivariable logistic regression analysis, controlled mechanical ventilation remained a risk factor for death within 60 mins, and norepinephrine administration and absence of cardiovascular comorbidity remained risk factors for death within 120 mins. The clinical judgment of the intensivist predicted death within 60 and 120 mins with a sensitivity of 73% and 89%, respectively, and a specificity of 56% and 25%, respectively. Despite the identification of risk factors for early death and the additional value of the clinical judgment by the intensivist, it is not possible to reliably identify potential donation after cardiac death donors who will die within 1 or 2 hrs after life-sustaining treatment has been withdrawn. Consequently, a donation procedure should be

  11. Productivity losses from road traffic deaths in Turkey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naci, Huseyin; Baker, Timothy D

    2008-03-01

    The importance of road traffic injuries in Turkey is not generally appreciated, in part due to lack of knowledge of its economic burden and in part due to major underestimation in official statistics. The total years of potential life lost and potentially productive years of life lost from mortality were calculated in order to estimate the cost of productivity losses from road traffic deaths in Turkey. More years of potentially productive life are lost due to road traffic deaths than to respiratory tract illnesses or diabetes mellitus, two other serious health problems in Turkey. Road traffic deaths cost Turkey an estimated USD 2.6 billion every year in productivity losses alone, more than the World Bank estimate of the indirect costs from the 1999 Marmara earthquake (USD 1.2-2 billion), Turkey's worst earthquake since 1939 (World Bank Turkey Country Office, 1999). This study highlights the importance of accurate information in ameliorating the burden of road traffic safety in Turkey. Turkey has great opportunities to implement cost-effective interventions to reduce the economic burden of fatal and non-fatal road traffic injuries.

  12. Predicting time to death after withdrawal of life-sustaining therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munshi, Laveena; Dhanani, Sonny; Shemie, Sam D; Hornby, Laura; Gore, Genevieve; Shahin, Jason

    2015-06-01

    Predicting time to death following the withdrawal of life-sustaining therapy is difficult. Accurate predictions may better prepare families and improve the process of donation after circulatory death. We systematically reviewed any predictive factors for time to death after withdrawal of life support therapy. Fifteen observational studies met our inclusion criteria. The primary outcome was time to death, which was evaluated to be within 60 min in the majority of studies (13/15). Additional time endpoints evaluated included time to death within 30, 120 min, and 10 h, respectively. While most studies evaluated risk factors associated with time to death, a few derived or validated prediction tools. Consistent predictors of time to death that were identified in five or more studies included the following risk factors: controlled ventilation, oxygenation, vasopressor use, Glasgow Coma Scale/Score, and brain stem reflexes. Seven unique prediction tools were derived, validated, or both across some of the studies. These tools, at best, had only moderate sensitivity to predicting the time to death. Simultaneous withdrawal of all support and physician opinion were only evaluated in more recent studies and demonstrated promising predictor capabilities. While the risk factors controlled ventilation, oxygenation, vasopressors, level of consciousness, and brainstem reflexes have been most consistently found to be associated with time to death, the addition of novel predictors, such as physician opinion and simultaneous withdrawal of all support, warrant further investigation. The currently existing prediction tools are not highly sensitive. A more accurate and generalizable tool is needed to inform end-of-life care and enhance the predictions of donation after circulatory death eligibility.

  13. Predictive Factors associated with Death of Elderly in Nursing Homes

    OpenAIRE

    Kiwol Sung, PhD, RN

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: An increasing elderly population reflects a great need for readily accessible, clinically useful methods to identify mortality-related factors in nursing home residents. The purpose of this study was to identify factors associated with the deaths of nursing home residents. Methods: Data was collected from a Minimal Data Set of 195 elderly nursing home residents, followed by analysis of demographic factors, disease and nursing condition factors, Activities of Daily Living (ADL), co...

  14. SCORE should be preferred to Framingham to predict cardiovascular death in French population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marchant, Ivanny; Boissel, Jean-Pierre; Kassaï, Behrouz; Bejan, Theodora; Massol, Jacques; Vidal, Chrystelle; Amsallem, Emmanuel; Naudin, Florence; Galan, Pilar; Czernichow, Sébastien; Nony, Patrice; Gueyffier, François

    2009-10-01

    Numerous studies have examined the validity of available scores to predict the absolute cardiovascular risk. We developed a virtual population based on data representative of the French population and compared the performances of the two most popular risk equations to predict cardiovascular death: Framingham and SCORE. A population was built based on official French demographic statistics and summarized data from representative observational studies. The 10-year coronary and cardiovascular death risk and their ratio were computed for each individual by SCORE and Framingham equations. The resulting rates were compared with those derived from national vital statistics. Framingham overestimated French coronary deaths by 2.8 in men and 1.9 in women, and cardiovascular deaths by 1.5 in men and 1.3 in women. SCORE overestimated coronary death by 1.6 in men and 1.7 in women, and underestimated cardiovascular death by 0.94 in men and 0.85 in women. Our results revealed an exaggerated representation of coronary among cardiovascular death predicted by Framingham, with coronary death exceeding cardiovascular death in some individual profiles. Sensitivity analyses gave some insights to explain the internal inconsistency of the Framingham equations. Evidence is that SCORE should be preferred to Framingham to predict cardiovascular death risk in French population. This discrepancy between prediction scores is likely to be observed in other populations. To improve the validation of risk equations, specific guidelines should be issued to harmonize the outcomes definition across epidemiologic studies. Prediction models should be calibrated for risk differences in the space and time dimensions.

  15. Examining the preventable but predictable death of Ashley Smith.

    Science.gov (United States)

    LeBlanc, Nicole; Kilty, Jennifer M; Frigon, Sylvie

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to examine the fusion of psy-correctional discourse with the dominant risk logic to consider the implication this nexus can have on how self-injurious behaviour committed by women in prison is interpreted and responded to by the Correctional Service Canada (CSC). The central focus of the study is an in-depth case analysis of the carceral death of Ashley Smith, a 19-year-old woman who committed suicide in her segregation cell in 2007 after enduring four years of excessively punitive treatment aimed at controlling her self-injurious behaviour. Findings illustrate how the fusion of these logics creates a kind of "therapeutic-risk cloak" that reframes the behaviour as "abnormal" and "risky", which masks the punitivity of strip search and segregation interventions in the name of safety, security and treatment. Given that correctional officials knowingly failed to intervene when Smith tied the fatal ligature around her neck, a federal inquiry judged her death to be a homicide. By attempting to unveil the "therapeutic-risk cloak" the authors hope to challenge the underlying logic of CSC's governance and management framework, which not only denies the oppressive gendered carceral reality that is linked to self-injurious behaviour amongst women prisoners, but is also used to justify intervention responses that exacerbate the very behaviour this framework aims to control. Until systemic transformation is achieved that eradicates CSC's contradictory governance framework, there is no doubt that the authors will continue to see similar preventable deaths take place in prison.

  16. Chest HRCT signs predict deaths in long-term follow-up among asbestos exposed workers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vehmas, Tapio, E-mail: tapio.vehmas@ttl.fi [Health and Work Ability, Finnish Institute of Occupational Health, Topeliuksenkatu 41 a A, FI-00250 Helsinki (Finland); Oksa, Panu, E-mail: panu.oksa@ttl.fi [Health and Work Ability, Finnish Institute of Occupational Health, Uimalankatu 1, FI-33101 Tampere (Finland)

    2014-10-15

    Highlights: • Much lung and pleural pathology is found in chest CT studies. • HRCT signs were screened and subsequent mortality followed up. • Several signs were related to all-cause and disease specific deaths. • The HRCT classification system used was able to predict mortality. • Secondary preventive strategies should be developed for patients with such signs. - Abstract: Objectives: To study associations between chest HRCT signs and subsequent deaths in long-term follow-up. Methods: Lung and pleural signs of 633 asbestos exposed workers (age 45–86, mean 65) screened with HRCT were recorded by using the International Classification of Occupational and Environmental Respiratory Diseases (ICOERD) system, which contains detailed instructions for use and reference images. Subsequent mortality was checked from the national register. Cox regression adjusted for covariates (age, sex, BMI, asbestos exposure, pack-years) was used to explore the relations between HRCT signs and all-cause deaths, cardiovascular and benign respiratory deaths, and deaths from neoplasms – all according to the ICD-10 diagnostic system. Results: The follow-up totalled 5271.9 person-years (mean 8.3 y/person, range .04–10.3). 119 deaths were reported. Irregular/linear opacities, honeycombing, emphysema, large opacities, visceral pleural abnormalities and bronchial wall thickening were all significantly related to all-cause deaths. Most of these signs were associated also with deaths from neoplasms and benign respiratory disease. Deaths from cardiovascular disease were predicted by emphysema and visceral pleural abnormalities. Conclusions: Several HRCT signs predicted deaths. Careful attention should be paid on subjects with radiological signs predictive of deaths and new secondary preventive strategies developed. This calls for further focused studies among different populations.

  17. Long term prediction of unconventional oil production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohr, S.H.; Evans, G.M.

    2010-01-01

    Although considerable discussion surrounds unconventional oil's ability to mitigate the effects of peaking conventional oil production, very few models of unconventional oil production exist. The aim of this article was to project unconventional oil production to determine how significant its production may be. Two models were developed to predict the unconventional oil production, one model for in situ production and the other for mining the resources. Unconventional oil production is anticipated to reach between 18 and 32 Gb/y (49-88 Mb/d) in 2076-2084, before declining. If conventional oil production is at peak production then projected unconventional oil production cannot mitigate peaking of conventional oil alone.

  18. Prediction of potential for organ donation after circulatory death in neurocritical patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Guixing; Guo, Zhiyong; Liang, Wenhua; Xin, Erye; Liu, Bin; Xu, Ye; Luan, Zhongqin; Schroder, Paul Michael; Manyalich, Martí; Ko, Dicken Shiu-Chung; He, Xiaoshun

    2018-03-01

    The success or failure of donation after circulatory death depends largely on the functional warm ischemia time, which is closely related to the duration between withdrawal of life-sustaining treatment and circulatory arrest. However, a reliable predictive model for the duration is absent. We aimed to compare the performance of the Chinese Donation after Circulatory Death Nomogram (C-DCD-Nomogram) and 3 other tools in a cohort of potential donors. In this prospective, multicenter, observational study, data were obtained from 219 consecutive neurocritical patients in China. The patients were followed until circulatory death after withdrawal of life-sustaining treatment. The C-DCD-Nomogram performed well in predicting patient death within 30, 60, 120 and 240 minutes after withdrawal of life-sustaining treatment with c-statistics of 0.87, 0.88, 0.86 and 0.95, respectively. The DCD-N score was a poor predictor of death within 30, 60 and 240 minutes, with c-statistics of 0.63, 0.69 and 0.59, respectively, although it was able to predict patient death within 120 minutes, with a c-statistic of 0.73. Neither the University of Wisconsin DCD evaluation tool (UWDCD) nor the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) criteria was able to predict patient death within 30, 60, 120 and 240 minutes after withdrawal of life-sustaining treatment (UWDCD tool: 0.48, 0.45, 0.49 and 0.57; UNOS criteria: 0.50, 0.53, 0.51 and 0.63). The C-DCD-Nomogram is superior to the other 3 tools for predicting death within a limited duration after withdrawal of life-sustaining treatment in Chinese neurocritical patients. Thus, it appears to be a reliable tool identifying potential donors after circulatory death. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  19. Validation of a pediatric bedside tool to predict time to death after withdrawal of life support.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Ashima; Anderson, Ingrid M; Speicher, David G; Speicher, Richard H; Shein, Steven L; Rotta, Alexandre T

    2016-02-08

    To evaluate the accuracy of a tool developed to predict timing of death following withdrawal of life support in children. Pertinent variables for all pediatric deaths (age ≤ 21 years) from 1/2009 to 6/2014 in our pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) were extracted through a detailed review of the medical records. As originally described, a recently developed tool that predicts timing of death in children following withdrawal of life support (dallas predictor tool [DPT]) was used to calculate individual scores for each patient. Individual scores were calculated for prediction of death within 30 min (DPT30) and within 60 min (DPT60). For various resulting DPT30 and DPT60 scores, sensitivity, specificity and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve were calculated. There were 8829 PICU admissions resulting in 132 (1.5%) deaths. Death followed withdrawal of life support in 70 patients (53%). After excluding subjects with insufficient data to calculate DPT scores, 62 subjects were analyzed. Average age of patients was 5.3 years (SD: 6.9), median time to death after withdrawal of life support was 25 min (range; 7 min to 16 h 54 min). Respiratory failure, shock and sepsis were the most common diagnoses. Thirty-seven patients (59.6%) died within 30 min of withdrawal of life support and 52 (83.8%) died within 60 min. DPT30 scores ranged from -17 to 16. A DPT30 score ≥ -3 was most predictive of death within that time period, with sensitivity = 0.76, specificity = 0.52, AUC = 0.69 and an overall classification accuracy = 66.1%. DPT60 scores ranged from -21 to 28. A DPT60 score ≥ -9 was most predictive of death within that time period, with sensitivity = 0.75, specificity = 0.80, AUC = 0.85 and an overall classification accuracy = 75.8%. In this external cohort, the DPT is clinically relevant in predicting time from withdrawal of life support to death. In our patients, the DPT is more useful in predicting death within 60 min of withdrawal of life support

  20. Risk prediction of cardiovascular death based on the QTc interval

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jonas B; Graff, Claus; Rasmussen, Peter V

    2014-01-01

    interval resulted in the worst prognosis for men whereas in women, a very short QTc interval was equivalent in risk to a borderline prolonged QTc interval. The effect of the QTc interval on the absolute risk of CVD was most pronounced in the elderly and in those with cardiovascular disease whereas.......1 years, 6647 persons died from cardiovascular causes. Long-term risks of CVD were estimated for subgroups defined by age, gender, cardiovascular disease, and QTc interval categories. In general, we observed an increased risk of CVD for both very short and long QTc intervals. Prolongation of the QTc...... the effect was negligible for middle-aged women without cardiovascular disease. The most important improvement in prediction accuracy was noted for women aged 70-90 years. In this subgroup, a total of 9.5% were reclassified (7.2% more accurately vs. 2.3% more inaccurately) within clinically relevant 5-year...

  1. Utility of Hippocrates' prognostic aphorism to predict death in the modern era: prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    St John, Philip D; Montgomery, Patrick R

    2014-12-15

    To determine if one of Hippocrates' aphorisms, identifying good cognition and good appetite as two prognostic factors, predicts death in community living older adults in the modern era. Secondary analysis of an existing population based cohort study. Manitoba Study of Health and Aging. 1751 community living adults aged more than 65 enrolled in the Manitoba Study of Health and Aging in 1991 and followed over five years. Time to death. We recreated the hippocratic prognosticator using an item that measures appetite drawn from the Center for Epidemiologic Studies-depression subscale, and the mini-mental state examination, with a score of >25 being considered as normal. People with normal cognition and appetite were compared with those with either poor cognition or poor appetite. We constructed Cox regression models, adjusted for age, sex, education, and functional status. The prognostic aphorism predicted death, with an unadjusted hazard ratio of 2.37 (95% confidence interval 1.93 to 2.88) and a hazard ratio of 1.71 (1.37 to 2.12) adjusted for age, sex, and education. Both poor appetite and poor cognition predicted death. The sensitivity and specificity were not, however, sufficient for the measure to be used alone. An aphorism devised by Hippocrates millennia ago can predict death in the modern era. © St John et al 2014.

  2. Utility of Hippocrates’ prognostic aphorism to predict death in the modern era: prospective cohort study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montgomery, Patrick R

    2014-01-01

    Objective To determine if one of Hippocrates’ aphorisms, identifying good cognition and good appetite as two prognostic factors, predicts death in community living older adults in the modern era. Design Secondary analysis of an existing population based cohort study. Setting Manitoba Study of Health and Aging. Participants 1751 community living adults aged more than 65 enrolled in the Manitoba Study of Health and Aging in 1991 and followed over five years. Main outcome measure Time to death. Methods We recreated the hippocratic prognosticator using an item that measures appetite drawn from the Center for Epidemiologic Studies-depression subscale, and the mini-mental state examination, with a score of >25 being considered as normal. People with normal cognition and appetite were compared with those with either poor cognition or poor appetite. We constructed Cox regression models, adjusted for age, sex, education, and functional status. Results The prognostic aphorism predicted death, with an unadjusted hazard ratio of 2.37 (95% confidence interval 1.93 to 2.88) and a hazard ratio of 1.71 (1.37 to 2.12) adjusted for age, sex, and education. Both poor appetite and poor cognition predicted death. The sensitivity and specificity were not, however, sufficient for the measure to be used alone. Conclusion An aphorism devised by Hippocrates millennia ago can predict death in the modern era. PMID:25512328

  3. Predictive Manufacturing: A Classification Strategy to Predict Product Failures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khan, Abdul Rauf; Schiøler, Henrik; Kulahci, Murat

    2018-01-01

    manufacturing analytics model that employs a big data approach to predicting product failures; third, we illustrate the issue of high dimensionality, along with statistically redundant information; and, finally, our proposed method will be compared against the well-known classification methods (SVM, K......-nearest neighbor, artificial neural networks). The results from real data show that our predictive manufacturing analytics approach, using genetic algorithms and Voronoi tessellations, is capable of predicting product failure with reasonable accuracy. The potential application of this method contributes......Predicting failures can be considered a meaningful insight for the optimal planning of an industrial manufacturing process. In this era of advanced sensor technologies, when the collection of data from each step of the manufacturing process is common practice and advanced analytical skills enable...

  4. Combined Prediction Model of Death Toll for Road Traffic Accidents Based on Independent and Dependent Variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feng Zhong-xiang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to build a combined model which can meet the variation rule of death toll data for road traffic accidents and can reflect the influence of multiple factors on traffic accidents and improve prediction accuracy for accidents, the Verhulst model was built based on the number of death tolls for road traffic accidents in China from 2002 to 2011; and car ownership, population, GDP, highway freight volume, highway passenger transportation volume, and highway mileage were chosen as the factors to build the death toll multivariate linear regression model. Then the two models were combined to be a combined prediction model which has weight coefficient. Shapley value method was applied to calculate the weight coefficient by assessing contributions. Finally, the combined model was used to recalculate the number of death tolls from 2002 to 2011, and the combined model was compared with the Verhulst and multivariate linear regression models. The results showed that the new model could not only characterize the death toll data characteristics but also quantify the degree of influence to the death toll by each influencing factor and had high accuracy as well as strong practicability.

  5. Developing a Fuzzy Expert System to Predict the Risk of Neonatal Death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safdari, Reza; Kadivar, Maliheh; Langarizadeh, Mostafa; Nejad, Ahmadreaza Farzaneh; Kermani, Farzaneh

    2016-02-01

    This study aims at developing a fuzzy expert system to predict the possibility of neonatal death. A questionnaire was given to Iranian neonatologists and the more important factors were identified based on their answers. Then, a computing model was designed considering the fuzziness of variables having the highest neonatal mortality risk. The inference engine used was Mamdani's method and the output was the risk of neonatal death given as a percentage. To validate the designed system, neonates' medical records real data at a Tehran hospital were used. MATLAB software was applied to build the model, and user interface was developed by C# programming in Visual Studio platform as bilingual (English and Farsi user interface). According to the results, the accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of the model were 90%, 83% and 97%, respectively. The designed fuzzy expert system for neonatal death prediction showed good accuracy as well as proper specificity, and could be utilized in general hospitals as a clinical decision support tool.

  6. In-Hospital Death Prediction in Patients with Acute Coronary Syndrome

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Monhart, Z.; Reissigová, Jindra; Zvárová, Jana; Grünfeldová, H.; Janský, P.; Vojáček, J.; Widimský, P.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 1, č. 1 (2013), s. 52-52 ISSN 1805-8698. [EFMI 2013 Special Topic Conference. 17.04.2013-19.04.2013, Prague] Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : acute coronary syndrome * in-hospital death * prediction * multilevel logistic regression * non-PCI hospital Subject RIV: IN - Informatics, Computer Science

  7. Algorithm for predicting CHD death risk in Turkish adults: conventional factors contribute only moderately in women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onat, Altan; Can, Günay; Kaya, Ayşem; Keskin, Muhammed; Hayıroğlu, Mert I; Yüksel, Hüsniye

    2017-06-01

    To assist the management strategy of individuals, we determined an algorithm for predicting the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) death in Turkish adults with a high prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MetS). The risk of CHD death was estimated in 3054 middle-aged adults, followed over 9.08±4.2 years. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to predict risk. Discrimination was assessed using C-statistics. CHD death was identified in 233 subjects. In multivariable analysis, the serum high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C) level was not predictive in men and the non-HDL-C level was not predictive in women. Age, presence of diabetes, systolic blood pressure ≥160 mm Hg, smoking habit, and low physical activity were predictors in both sexes. The exclusion of coronary disease at baseline did not change the risk estimates materially. Using an algorithm of the 7 stated variables, individuals in the highest category of risk score showed a 19- to 50-fold higher spread in the absolute risk of death from CHD than those in the second lowest category. C-index of the model using age alone was as high as 0.774 in men and 0.836 in women (pindex of 0.058 in males and 0.042 in females. In a middle-aged population with prevalent MetS, men disclosed anticipated risk parameters (except for high HDL-C levels) as determinants of the risk of CHD death. On the other hand, serum non-HDL-C levels and moderate systolic hypertension were not relevant in women. The moderate contribution of conventional risk factors (beyond age) to the estimation of the risk of CHD death in women is consistent with the operation of autoimmune activation.

  8. Gray Matter-White Matter De-Differentiation on Brain Computed Tomography Predicts Brain Death Occurrence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vigneron, C; Labeye, V; Cour, M; Hannoun, S; Grember, A; Rampon, F; Cotton, F

    2016-01-01

    Previous studies have shown that a loss of distinction between gray matter (GM) and white matter (WM) on unenhanced CT scans was predictive of poor outcome after cardiac arrest. The aim of this study was to identify a marker/predictor of imminent brain death. In this retrospective study, 15 brain-dead patients after anoxia and cardiac arrest were included. Patients were paired (1:1) with normal control subjects. Only patients' unenhanced CT scans performed before brain death and during the 24 hours after initial signs were analyzed. WM and GM densities were measured in predefined regions of interest (basal ganglia level, centrum semi-ovale level, high convexity level, brainstem level). At each level, GM and WM density and GM/WM ratio for brain-dead patients and normal control subjects were compared using the Wilcoxon signed-rank test. At each level, a lower GM/WM ratio and decreased GM and WM densities were observed in brain-dead patients' CT scans when compared with normal control subject CT scans. A cut-off value of 1.21 at the basal ganglia level was identified, below which brain death systematically occurred. GM/WM dedifferentiation on unenhanced CT scan is measurable before the occurrence of brain death, highlighting its importance in brain death prediction. The mechanism of GM/WM differentiation loss could be explained by the lack of oxygen caused by ischemia initially affecting the mitochondrial system. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Profound Endothelial Damage Predicts Impending Organ Failure and Death in Sepsis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Maria E; Johansson, Pär I.; Ostrowski, Sisse R

    2015-01-01

    Endothelial damage contributes to organ failure and mortality in sepsis, but the extent of the contribution remains poorly quantified. Here, we examine the association between biomarkers of superficial and profound endothelial damage (syndecan-1 and soluble thrombomodulin [sTM], respectively......), organ failure, and death in sepsis. The data from a clinical trial, including critically ill patients predominantly suffering sepsis (Clinicaltrials.gov: NCT00271752) were studied. Syndecan-1 and sTM levels at the time of study enrollment were determined. The predictive ability of biomarker levels...... patients. Our findings also suggest that the detrimental effect of profound endothelial damage on risk of death operates via mechanisms other than causing organ failures per se. Therefore, damage to the endothelium appears centrally involved in the pathogenesis of death in sepsis and could be a target...

  10. Heterozygote PCR product melting curve prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dwight, Zachary L; Palais, Robert; Kent, Jana; Wittwer, Carl T

    2014-03-01

    Melting curve prediction of PCR products is limited to perfectly complementary strands. Multiple domains are calculated by recursive nearest neighbor thermodynamics. However, the melting curve of an amplicon containing a heterozygous single-nucleotide variant (SNV) after PCR is the composite of four duplexes: two matched homoduplexes and two mismatched heteroduplexes. To better predict the shape of composite heterozygote melting curves, 52 experimental curves were compared with brute force in silico predictions varying two parameters simultaneously: the relative contribution of heteroduplex products and an ionic scaling factor for mismatched tetrads. Heteroduplex products contributed 25.7 ± 6.7% to the composite melting curve, varying from 23%-28% for different SNV classes. The effect of ions on mismatch tetrads scaled to 76%-96% of normal (depending on SNV class) and averaged 88 ± 16.4%. Based on uMelt (www.dna.utah.edu/umelt/umelt.html) with an expanded nearest neighbor thermodynamic set that includes mismatched base pairs, uMelt HETS calculates helicity as a function of temperature for homoduplex and heteroduplex products, as well as the composite curve expected from heterozygotes. It is an interactive Web tool for efficient genotyping design, heterozygote melting curve prediction, and quality control of melting curve experiments. The application was developed in Actionscript and can be found online at http://www.dna.utah.edu/hets/. © 2013 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.

  11. Insecure attachment predicts depression and death anxiety in advanced cancer patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheffold, Katharina; Philipp, Rebecca; Koranyi, Susan; Engelmann, Dorit; Schulz-Kindermann, Frank; Härter, Martin; Mehnert, Anja

    2017-05-15

    The prevalence of depression as well as adjustment and anxiety disorders is high in advanced cancer patients, and research exploring intraindividual factors leading to high psychological distress is underrepresented. Cancer patients' feelings about security and trust in their healthcare providers have a significant influence on how they deal with their disease. The perception of social support is affected by patients' attachment styles and influences their reactions to feelings of dependency and loss of control. We therefore aimed to explore attachment and its association with psychological distress in patients with advanced cancer. We obtained data from the baseline measurements of a randomized controlled trial in advanced cancer patients. Patients were sampled from the university medical centers of Hamburg and Leipzig, Germany. The main outcome measures included the Patient Health Questionnaire, the Death and Dying Distress Scale, the Memorial Symptom Assessment Scale, and the Experience in Close Relationships Scale for assessing attachment insecurity. A total of 162 patients were included. We found that 64% of patients were insecurely attached (fearful-avoidant 31%, dismissing 17%, and preoccupied 16%). A dismissing attachment style was associated with more physical symptoms but did not predict psychological distress. A fearful-avoidant attachment style significantly predicted higher death anxiety and depression, whereas preoccupied attachment predicted higher death anxiety only. Overall, insecure attachment contributed to the prediction of depression (10%) and death anxiety (14%). The concept of attachment plays a relevant role in advanced cancer patients' mental health. Healthcare providers can benefit from knowledge of advanced cancer patients' attachment styles and how they relate to specific mental distress. Developing a better understanding of patients' reactions to feelings of dependency and distressing emotions can help us to develop individually

  12. Predictive indices for functional improvement and deterioration, institutionalization, and death among elderly Medicare beneficiaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurichi, Jibby E.; Kwong, Pui L.; Xie, Dawei; Bogner, Hillary R.

    2017-01-01

    Background Prediction models can help clinicians provide the best and most appropriate care to their patients and can help policy makers design services for groups at highest risk of poor outcomes. Objective The objective was to develop prediction models identifying both risk factors and protective factors for functional deterioration, institutionalization, and death. Design Cohort study using data from the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey (MCBS) Setting Community survey. Participants This study included 21,264 Medicare beneficiaries 65 years of age and older who participated in the MCBS from the 2001–2008 entry panels and were followed for two years. Methods The index was derived in 60% and validated in the remaining 40%. β-coefficients from a multinomial logistic regression model were used to derive points, which were added together to create scores associated with the outcome. Main outcome measure The outcome was activity of daily living (ADL) stage transitions over two years following entry into the MCBS. Beneficiaries were categorized into one of four outcome categories: stable or improved function, functional deterioration, institutionalization, or death. Results Our model identified 16 factors for functional deterioration (age, gender, education, living arrangement, dual eligibility, proxy use, Alzheimer’s disease/dementia, angina pectoris/coronary heart disease, diabetes, emphysema/asthma/chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, mental/psychiatric disorder, Parkinson’s disease, stroke/brain hemorrhage, hearing impairment, vision impairment, and baseline ADL stage) after backward selection (pinstitutionalization, and ≤3 to ≥16 for the risk of death. Conclusion Predictive indices, or point and scoring systems used to predict outcomes, can identify elderly Medicare beneficiaries at risk of functional deterioration, institutionalization, and death and can aid policy makers, clinicians, and family members in improving care for older adults and

  13. ZOOPLANKTON LIFE CYCLES: DIRECT DOCUMENTATION OF PELAGIC BIRTHS AND DEATHS RELATIVE TO DIAPAUSING EGG PRODUCTION

    Science.gov (United States)

    Full-season demographics (pelagic births and deaths, diapause egg production) provide valuable insights into species persistence and dispersal success. The spiny cladoceran (Bythotrephes) possesses morphological adaptations (spines and thick-walled diapause eggs) that lessen impa...

  14. Comparison of joint modeling and landmarking for dynamic prediction under an illness-death model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suresh, Krithika; Taylor, Jeremy M G; Spratt, Daniel E; Daignault, Stephanie; Tsodikov, Alexander

    2017-11-01

    Dynamic prediction incorporates time-dependent marker information accrued during follow-up to improve personalized survival prediction probabilities. At any follow-up, or "landmark", time, the residual time distribution for an individual, conditional on their updated marker values, can be used to produce a dynamic prediction. To satisfy a consistency condition that links dynamic predictions at different time points, the residual time distribution must follow from a prediction function that models the joint distribution of the marker process and time to failure, such as a joint model. To circumvent the assumptions and computational burden associated with a joint model, approximate methods for dynamic prediction have been proposed. One such method is landmarking, which fits a Cox model at a sequence of landmark times, and thus is not a comprehensive probability model of the marker process and the event time. Considering an illness-death model, we derive the residual time distribution and demonstrate that the structure of the Cox model baseline hazard and covariate effects under the landmarking approach do not have simple form. We suggest some extensions of the landmark Cox model that should provide a better approximation. We compare the performance of the landmark models with joint models using simulation studies and cognitive aging data from the PAQUID study. We examine the predicted probabilities produced under both methods using data from a prostate cancer study, where metastatic clinical failure is a time-dependent covariate for predicting death following radiation therapy. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  15. Prediction of time of death after withdrawal of life-sustaining treatment in potential donors after cardiac death

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wind, Jentina; Snoeijs, Maarten G. J.; Brugman, Cees A.; Vervelde, Janneke; Zwaveling, Janharm; van Mook, Walther N.; van Heurn, Ernest L.

    Objective: Organ donation after cardiac death increases the number of donor organs. In controlled donation after cardiac death donors, the period between withdrawal of life-sustaining treatment and cardiac arrest is one of the parameters used to assess whether organs are suitable for

  16. The paradox of verbal autopsy in cause of death assignment: symptom question unreliability but predictive accuracy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serina, Peter; Riley, Ian; Hernandez, Bernardo; Flaxman, Abraham D; Praveen, Devarsetty; Tallo, Veronica; Joshi, Rohina; Sanvictores, Diozele; Stewart, Andrea; Mooney, Meghan D; Murray, Christopher J L; Lopez, Alan D

    2016-01-01

    We believe that it is important that governments understand the reliability of the mortality data which they have at their disposable to guide policy debates. In many instances, verbal autopsy (VA) will be the only source of mortality data for populations, yet little is known about how the accuracy of VA diagnoses is affected by the reliability of the symptom responses. We previously described the effect of the duration of time between death and VA administration on VA validity. In this paper, using the same dataset, we assess the relationship between the reliability and completeness of symptom responses and the reliability and accuracy of cause of death (COD) prediction. The study was based on VAs in the Population Health Metrics Research Consortium (PHMRC) VA Validation Dataset from study sites in Bohol and Manila, Philippines and Andhra Pradesh, India. The initial interview was repeated within 3-52 months of death. Question responses were assessed for reliability and completeness between the two survey rounds. COD was predicted by Tariff Method. A sample of 4226 VAs was collected for 2113 decedents, including 1394 adults, 349 children, and 370 neonates. Mean question reliability was unexpectedly low ( kappa  = 0.447): 42.5 % of responses positive at the first interview were negative at the second, and 47.9 % of responses positive at the second had been negative at the first. Question reliability was greater for the short form of the PHMRC instrument ( kappa  = 0.497) and when analyzed at the level of the individual decedent ( kappa  = 0.610). Reliability at the level of the individual decedent was associated with COD predictive reliability and predictive accuracy. Families give coherent accounts of events leading to death but the details vary from interview to interview for the same case. Accounts are accurate but inconsistent; different subsets of symptoms are identified on each occasion. However, there are sufficient accurate and consistent

  17. Readmissions and death after ICU discharge: development and validation of two predictive models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omar Badawi

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Early discharge from the ICU is desirable because it shortens time in the ICU and reduces care costs, but can also increase the likelihood of ICU readmission and post-discharge unanticipated death if patients are discharged before they are stable. We postulated that, using eICU® Research Institute (eRI data from >400 ICUs, we could develop robust models predictive of post-discharge death and readmission that may be incorporated into future clinical information systems (CIS to assist ICU discharge planning. METHODS: Retrospective, multi-center, exploratory cohort study of ICU survivors within the eRI database between 1/1/2007 and 3/31/2011. EXCLUSION CRITERIA: DNR or care limitations at ICU discharge and discharge to location external to hospital. Patients were randomized (2∶1 to development and validation cohorts. Multivariable logistic regression was performed on a broad range of variables including: patient demographics, ICU admission diagnosis, admission severity of illness, laboratory values and physiologic variables present during the last 24 hours of the ICU stay. Multiple imputation was used to address missing data. The primary outcomes were the area under the receiver operator characteristic curves (auROC in the validation cohorts for the models predicting readmission and death within 48 hours of ICU discharge. RESULTS: 469,976 and 234,987 patients representing 219 hospitals were in the development and validation cohorts. Early ICU readmission and death was experienced by 2.54% and 0.92% of all patients, respectively. The relationship between predictors and outcomes (death vs readmission differed, justifying the need for separate models. The models for early readmission and death produced auROCs of 0.71 and 0.92, respectively. Both models calibrated well across risk groups. CONCLUSIONS: Our models for death and readmission after ICU discharge showed good to excellent discrimination and good calibration. Although

  18. The predicted number of air pollution related deaths in the UK during the August 2003 heatwave

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stedman, John R.

    There was a major heatwave across much of Europe in the first two weeks of August 2003, during which temperatures peaked at a new record of 38.5° C in the UK. The UK Office for National Statistics have reported an excess of 2045 deaths in England and Wales for period from 4 to 13 August 2003 above the 1998-2002 average for this time of year. Here we estimate, using previously established dose-response functions, that there were between 423 and 769 excess deaths in England and Wales during the first two weeks of August 2003 associated with the elevated ambient ozone and PM 10 concentrations. This represents 21-38% of the total excess deaths. This has implications for the mitigation of the health effects of heatwave conditions. It reinforces the advice to the public on keeping cool, reducing exposure to outdoor air pollutants and indeed possible measures to reduce atmospheric pollution. The predictions presented here could be verified by conducting a specific epidemiological study of deaths during this heatwave.

  19. A biomarker-based risk score to predict death in patients with atrial fibrillation: the ABC (age, biomarkers, clinical history) death risk score

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hijazi, Ziad; Oldgren, Jonas; Lindbäck, Johan; Alexander, John H; Connolly, Stuart J; Eikelboom, John W; Ezekowitz, Michael D; Held, Claes; Hylek, Elaine M; Lopes, Renato D; Yusuf, Salim; Granger, Christopher B; Siegbahn, Agneta; Wallentin, Lars

    2018-01-01

    Abstract Aims In atrial fibrillation (AF), mortality remains high despite effective anticoagulation. A model predicting the risk of death in these patients is currently not available. We developed and validated a risk score for death in anticoagulated patients with AF including both clinical information and biomarkers. Methods and results The new risk score was developed and internally validated in 14 611 patients with AF randomized to apixaban vs. warfarin for a median of 1.9 years. External validation was performed in 8548 patients with AF randomized to dabigatran vs. warfarin for 2.0 years. Biomarker samples were obtained at study entry. Variables significantly contributing to the prediction of all-cause mortality were assessed by Cox-regression. Each variable obtained a weight proportional to the model coefficients. There were 1047 all-cause deaths in the derivation and 594 in the validation cohort. The most important predictors of death were N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide, troponin-T, growth differentiation factor-15, age, and heart failure, and these were included in the ABC (Age, Biomarkers, Clinical history)-death risk score. The score was well-calibrated and yielded higher c-indices than a model based on all clinical variables in both the derivation (0.74 vs. 0.68) and validation cohorts (0.74 vs. 0.67). The reduction in mortality with apixaban was most pronounced in patients with a high ABC-death score. Conclusion A new biomarker-based score for predicting risk of death in anticoagulated AF patients was developed, internally and externally validated, and well-calibrated in two large cohorts. The ABC-death risk score performed well and may contribute to overall risk assessment in AF. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT00412984 and NCT00262600 PMID:29069359

  20. Comparison of 2 frailty indexes for prediction of falls, disability, fractures, and death in older women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ensrud, Kristine E; Ewing, Susan K; Taylor, Brent C; Fink, Howard A; Cawthon, Peggy M; Stone, Katie L; Hillier, Teresa A; Cauley, Jane A; Hochberg, Marc C; Rodondi, Nicolas; Tracy, J Kathleen; Cummings, Steven R

    2008-02-25

    Frailty, as defined by the index derived from the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS index), predicts risk of adverse outcomes in older adults. Use of this index, however, is impractical in clinical practice. We conducted a prospective cohort study in 6701 women 69 years or older to compare the predictive validity of a simple frailty index with the components of weight loss, inability to rise from a chair 5 times without using arms, and reduced energy level (Study of Osteoporotic Fractures [SOF index]) with that of the CHS index with the components of unintentional weight loss, poor grip strength, reduced energy level, slow walking speed, and low level of physical activity. Women were classified as robust, of intermediate status, or frail using each index. Falls were reported every 4 months for 1 year. Disability (> or =1 new impairment in performing instrumental activities of daily living) was ascertained at 4(1/2) years, and fractures and deaths were ascertained during 9 years of follow-up. Area under the curve (AUC) statistics from receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and -2 log likelihood statistics were compared for models containing the CHS index vs the SOF index. Increasing evidence of frailty as defined by either the CHS index or the SOF index was similarly associated with an increased risk of adverse outcomes. Frail women had a higher age-adjusted risk of recurrent falls (odds ratio, 2.4), disability (odds ratio, 2.2-2.8), nonspine fracture (hazard ratio, 1.4-1.5), hip fracture (hazard ratio, 1.7-1.8), and death (hazard ratio, 2.4-2.7) (P falls (AUC = 0.61 for both models; P = .66), disability (AUC = 0.64; P = .23), nonspine fracture (AUC = 0.55; P = .80), hip fracture (AUC = 0.63; P = .64), or death (AUC = 0.72; P = .10). Results were similar when -2 log likelihood statistics were compared. The simple SOF index predicts risk of falls, disability, fracture, and death as well as the more complex CHS index and may provide a useful definition of

  1. Cyclic Mechanical Stretching Induces Autophagic Cell Death in Tenofibroblasts Through Activation of Prostaglandin E2 Production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hua Chen

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aims: Autophagic cell death has recently been implicated in the pathophysiology of tendinopathy. Prostaglandin E2 (PGE2, a known inflammatory mediator of tendinitis, inhibits tenofibroblast proliferation in vitro; however, the underlying mechanism is unclear. The present study investigated the relationship between PGE2 production and autophagic cell death in mechanically loaded human patellar tendon fibroblasts (HPTFs in vitro. Methods: Cultured HPTFs were subjected to exogenous PGE2 treatment or repetitive cyclic mechanical stretching. Cell death was determined by flow cytometry with acridine orange/ethidium bromide staining. Induction of autophagy was assessed by autophagy markers including the formation of autophagosomes and autolysosomes (by electron microscopy, AO staining, and formation of GPF-LC3-labeled vacuoles and the expression of LC3-II and BECN1 (by western blot. Stretching-induced PGE2 release was determined by ELISA. Results: Exogenous PGE2 significantly induced cell death and autophagy in HPTFs in a dose-dependent manner. Blocking autophagy using inhibitors 3-methyladenine and chloroquine, or small interfering RNAs against autophagy genes Becn-1 and Atg-5 prevented PGE2-induced cell death. Cyclic mechanical stretching at 8% and 12% magnitudes for 24 h significantly stimulated PGE2 release by HPTFs in a magnitude-dependent manner. In addition, mechanical stretching induced autophagy and cell death. Blocking PGE2 production using COX inhibitors indomethacin and celecoxib significantly reduced stretching-induced autophagy and cell death. Conclusion: Taken together, cyclic mechanical stretching induces autophagic cell death in tenofibroblasts through activation of PGE2 production.

  2. Drug-induced death signaling strategy rapidly predicts cancer response to chemotherapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montero, Joan; Sarosiek, Kristopher A; DeAngelo, Joseph D; Maertens, Ophélia; Ryan, Jeremy; Ercan, Dalia; Piao, Huiying; Horowitz, Neil S; Berkowitz, Ross S; Matulonis, Ursula; Jänne, Pasi A; Amrein, Philip C; Cichowski, Karen; Drapkin, Ronny; Letai, Anthony

    2015-02-26

    There is a lack of effective predictive biomarkers to precisely assign optimal therapy to cancer patients. While most efforts are directed at inferring drug response phenotype based on genotype, there is very focused and useful phenotypic information to be gained from directly perturbing the patient's living cancer cell with the drug(s) in question. To satisfy this unmet need, we developed the Dynamic BH3 Profiling technique to measure early changes in net pro-apoptotic signaling at the mitochondrion ("priming") induced by chemotherapeutic agents in cancer cells, not requiring prolonged ex vivo culture. We find in cell line and clinical experiments that early drug-induced death signaling measured by Dynamic BH3 Profiling predicts chemotherapy response across many cancer types and many agents, including combinations of chemotherapies. We propose that Dynamic BH3 Profiling can be used as a broadly applicable predictive biomarker to predict cytotoxic response of cancers to chemotherapeutics in vivo. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Predictive patterns of sensory evoked potentials in comatose brain injured patients evolving to brain death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scarpino, Maenia; Lanzo, Giovanni; Carrai, Riccardo; Lolli, Francesco; Migliaccio, Maria Luisa; Spalletti, Maddalena; Peris, Adriano; Amantini, Aldo; Grippo, Antonello

    2017-02-01

    To assess whether Somatosensory Evoked Potentials (SEPs), recorded within 24h after ICU admission, are reliable predictors of brain death (BD) in comatose patients with acquired brain injury of various aetiologies. SEPs were classified as absent (A), pathological (P), and normal (N). Considering SEP recordings from both hemispheres, 6 patterns were identified: NN, NP, PP, NA, AP, and AA. The final endpoint was BD. Of the 203 patients included in the study, 70 (34%) evolved toward BD. The survival analysis indicated that the combination of SEP patterns in a two-graded scale (grade 1: NN-NP-PP-NA, and grade 2: AP-AA), allowed for prediction of BD with the best accuracy. This aggregation predicted BD with a sensitivity of 75.7% (CI: 64-84), a specificity of 76.6% (CI: 68-83), a positive predictive value of 64.2% (CI: 53-74) and a negative predictive value of 84.3% (CI: 77-90) in overall patients, and with a sensitivity of 75.0% (CI: 63-84), a specificity of 84.9% (CI: 75-90), a positive predictive value of 77.5% (CI: 63-88) and a negative predictive value of 84.3% (CI: 74-91) when excluding cardiac arrest. It is worth including SEPs, in association with other investigations and clinical signs, in prognostic scores of BD. The early identification of patients at high risk of evolving towards BD could help physicians to optimise management. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  4. Antimicrobial resistance predicts death in Tanzanian children with bloodstream infections: a prospective cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Msangi Viola

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Bloodstream infection is a common cause of hospitalization, morbidity and death in children. The impact of antimicrobial resistance and HIV infection on outcome is not firmly established. Methods We assessed the incidence of bloodstream infection and risk factors for fatal outcome in a prospective cohort study of 1828 consecutive admissions of children aged zero to seven years with signs of systemic infection. Blood was obtained for culture, malaria microscopy, HIV antibody test and, when necessary, HIV PCR. We recorded data on clinical features, underlying diseases, antimicrobial drug use and patients' outcome. Results The incidence of laboratory-confirmed bloodstream infection was 13.9% (255/1828 of admissions, despite two thirds of the study population having received antimicrobial therapy prior to blood culture. The most frequent isolates were klebsiella, salmonellae, Escherichia coli, enterococci and Staphylococcus aureus. Furthermore, 21.6% had malaria and 16.8% HIV infection. One third (34.9% of the children with laboratory-confirmed bloodstream infection died. The mortality rate from Gram-negative bloodstream infection (43.5% was more than double that of malaria (20.2% and Gram-positive bloodstream infection (16.7%. Significant risk factors for death by logistic regression modeling were inappropriate treatment due to antimicrobial resistance, HIV infection, other underlying infectious diseases, malnutrition and bloodstream infection caused by Enterobacteriaceae, other Gram-negatives and candida. Conclusion Bloodstream infection was less common than malaria, but caused more deaths. The frequent use of antimicrobials prior to blood culture may have hampered the detection of organisms susceptible to commonly used antimicrobials, including pneumococci, and thus the study probably underestimates the incidence of bloodstream infection. The finding that antimicrobial resistance, HIV-infection and malnutrition predict fatal

  5. Penicilliosis and AIDS in Haiphong, Vietnam: evolution and predictive factors of death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Son, V T; Khue, P M; Strobel, M

    2014-12-01

    The study objective was to assess the lethality rates and the predictive factors for death in AIDS patients infected by Penicillium marneffei (Pm) in Hai Phong, Vietnam. A retrospective cohort study was conducted by reviewing 103 medicals records of confirmed cases from June 2006 to August 2009. Penicilliosis-related mortality was very high (33%). The majors risk factors of death were: (i) patient lacking complete treatment, a regimen with both of secondary prophylaxis by itraconazole and HAART (OR=52.2, P<0.001); (ii) patients having received only secondary prophylaxis (OR=21.2, P<0.001); (iii) patients coinfected by hepatitis C (OR=2.3, P=0.02) and tuberculosis (OR=1.97, P=0.04). Penicilliosis occurred in 28 cases after initiation of ART, probably caused by IRIS, with the same signs and symptoms as "common" penicilliosis. However, the diagnosis of IRIS was ruled out because the viral load could not be assessed. Penicilliosis is very frequent in the North of Vietnam. A good compliance to a complete treatment with healing antifungal (Amphotericin B) then secondary prophylaxis (Itraconazole) associate with ART, prolongs survival, prevents relapse, and also allows discontinuing a secondary prophylaxis in a half of the cases. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  6. Nutritional status predicts preterm death in older people: a prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Söderström, Lisa; Rosenblad, Andreas; Adolfsson, Eva Thors; Saletti, Anja; Bergkvist, Leif

    2014-04-01

    There is an association between malnutrition and mortality. However, it is uncertain whether this association is independent of confounders. The aim of the present study was to examine whether nutritional status, defined according to the three categories in the full Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA) instrument, is an independent predictor of preterm death in people 65 years and older. This prospective cohort study included individuals aged ≥65 years who were admitted to hospital between March 2008 and May 2009 and followed-up after 50 months (n = 1767). Nutritional status was assessed with the MNA, and possible risk factors associated with malnutrition were recorded during participants hospital stay. Main outcome measure was overall survival. Based on the MNA definitions, 628 (35.5%) were well-nourished, 973 (55.1%) were at risk of malnutrition, and 166 (9.4%) of the participants were malnourished at baseline. During the follow-up period 655 (37.1%) participants died. At follow-up, the survival rates were 75.2% for well-nourished participants, 60.0% for those at risk of malnutrition, and 33.7% for malnourished participants (p Nutritional status defined according to the three categories in the full MNA independently predicts preterm death in people aged 65 years and older. These findings are clinically important and emphasise the usefulness of the MNA for screening of nutritional status. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.

  7. Hyaluronic acid levels predict risk of hepatic encephalopathy and liver-related death in HIV/viral hepatitis coinfected patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Peters, Lars; Mocroft, Amanda; Soriano, Vincent

    2013-01-01

    Whereas it is well established that various soluble biomarkers can predict level of liver fibrosis, their ability to predict liver-related clinical outcomes is less clearly established, in particular among HIV/viral hepatitis co-infected persons. We investigated plasma hyaluronic acid's (HA) abil......) ability to predict risk of liver-related events (LRE; hepatic coma or liver-related death) in the EuroSIDA study....

  8. Nomogram for Predicting Time to Death After Withdrawal of Life-Sustaining Treatment in Patients With Devastating Neurological Injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, X; Xu, G; Liang, W; Liu, B; Xu, Y; Luan, Z; Lu, Y; Ko, D S C; Manyalich, M; Schroder, P M; Guo, Z

    2015-08-01

    Reliable prediction of time of death after withdrawal of life-sustaining treatment in patients with devastating neurological injury is crucial to successful donation after cardiac death. Herein, we conducted a study of 419 neurocritical patients who underwent life support withdrawal at four neurosurgical centers in China. Based on a retrospective cohort, we used multivariate Cox regression analysis to identify prognostic factors for patient death, which were then integrated into a nomogram. The model was calibrated and validated using data from an external retrospective cohort and a prospective cohort. We identified 10 variables that were incorporated into a nomogram. The C-indexes for predicting the 60-min death probability in the training, external validation and prospective validation cohorts were 0.96 (0.93-0.98), 0.94 (0.91-0.97), and 0.99 (0.97-1.00), respectively. The calibration plots after WLST showed an optimal agreement between the prediction of time to death by the nomogram and the actual observation for all cohorts. Then we identified 22, 26 and 37 as cut-points for risk stratification into four groups. Kaplan-Meier curves indicated distinct prognoses between patients in the different risk groups (p death donors in neurocritical patients in a Chinese population. © Copyright 2015 The American Society of Transplantation and the American Society of Transplant Surgeons.

  9. Predicting sequelae and death after bacterial meningitis in childhood: A systematic review of prognostic studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gemke Reinoud JBJ

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Bacterial meningitis (BM is a severe infection responsible for high mortality and disabling sequelae. Early identification of patients at high risk of these outcomes is necessary to prevent their occurrence by adequate treatment as much as possible. For this reason, several prognostic models have been developed. The objective of this study is to summarize the evidence regarding prognostic factors predicting death or sequelae due to BM in children 0-18 years of age. Methods A search in MEDLINE and EMBASE was conducted to identify prognostic studies on risk factors for mortality and sequelae after BM in children. Selection of abstracts, full-text articles and assessment of methodological quality using the QUIPS checklist was performed by two reviewers independently. Data on prognostic factors per outcome were summarized. Results Of the 31 studies identified, 15 were of moderate to high quality. Due to substantial heterogeneity in study characteristics and evaluated prognostic factors, no quantitative analysis was performed. Prognostic factors found to be statistically significant in more than one study of moderate or high quality are: complaints >48 hours before admission, coma/impaired consciousness, (prolonged duration of seizures, (prolonged fever, shock, peripheral circulatory failure, respiratory distress, absence of petechiae, causative pathogen Streptococcus pneumoniae, young age, male gender, several cerebrospinal fluid (CSF parameters and white blood cell (WBC count. Conclusions Although several important prognostic factors for the prediction of mortality or sequelae after BM were identified, the inability to perform a pooled analysis makes the exact (independent predictive value of these factors uncertain. This emphasizes the need for additional well-conducted prognostic studies.

  10. [Death certificate data in France: Production process and main types of analyses].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rey, G

    2016-10-01

    Mortality data, by the unambiguity of their definition and understanding by all stakeholders, and completeness of registration, are a cornerstone of public health statistics in France and in most industrialized countries. This article describes the data production process, and the main types of possible analyses. Data production is composed of different stages: death certification by a medical doctor on paper or electronic (using a web application) format, data transmission to Inserm, capture and coding of information. The encoding of the information follows the WHO recommendations of the International Classification of Diseases ([ICD], 10th revision used since 2000). It is carried out using an automatic coding software, called Iris, developed in an international consortium. The coding aims, first, at assigning an ICD code to all nosologic entities encountered on the certificate, and then at selecting the underlying cause of death. The latter is the main information used for statistical analyses. Three main types of analysis emerge in the literature: the exploitation of data on the death certificate only, ecological analyses (studies of associations between variables measured across groups) and analysis from data individually linked to other databases. Many public health issues can be addressed with these various analyses. Several developments in the production process are being implemented: the deployment of electronic certification, increased automation of the death certificate information processing and durable and complete record linkage with health insurance and hospitalisation data. They could soon be deeply expanding the scope of possible uses of causes of death data. Copyright © 2016 Société Nationale Française de Médecine Interne (SNFMI). Published by Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

  11. Pediatric in-Hospital Death from Infectious Disease in Uganda: Derivation of Clinical Prediction Models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nasim Lowlaavar

    Full Text Available Pediatric hospital mortality from infectious diseases in resource constrained countries remains unacceptably high. Improved methods of risk-stratification can assist in referral decision making and resource allocation. The purpose of this study was to create prediction models for in-hospital mortality among children admitted with suspected infectious diseases.This two-site prospective observational study enrolled children between 6 months and 5 years admitted with a proven or suspected infection. Baseline clinical and laboratory variables were collected on enrolled children. The primary outcome was death during admission. Stepwise logistic regression minimizing Akaike's information criterion was used to identify the most promising multivariate models. The final model was chosen based on parsimony.1307 children were enrolled consecutively, and 65 (5% of whom died during their admission. Malaria, pneumonia and gastroenteritis were diagnosed in 50%, 31% and 8% of children, respectively. The primary model included an abnormal Blantyre coma scale, HIV and weight-for-age z-score. This model had an area under the curve (AUC of 0.85 (95% CI, 0.80-0.89 with a sensitivity and specificity of 83% and 76%, respectively. The positive and negative predictive values were 15% and 99%, respectively. Two alternate models with similar performance characteristics were developed withholding HIV and weight-for-age z-score, for use when these variables are not available.Risk stratification of children admitted with infectious diseases can be calculated based on several easily measured variables. Risk stratification at admission can be used for allocation of scarce human and physical resources and to guide referral among children admitted to lower level health facilities.

  12. Trends, Productivity Losses, and Associated Medical Conditions Among Toxoplasmosis Deaths in the United States, 2000–2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cummings, Patricia L.; Kuo, Tony; Javanbakht, Marjan; Sorvillo, Frank

    2014-01-01

    Few studies have quantified toxoplasmosis mortality, associated medical conditions, and productivity losses in the United States. We examined national multiple cause of death data and estimated productivity losses caused by toxoplasmosis during 2000–2010. A matched case–control analysis examined associations between comorbid medical conditions and toxoplasmosis deaths. In total, 789 toxoplasmosis deaths were identified during the 11-year study period. Blacks and Hispanics had the highest toxoplasmosis mortality compared with whites. Several medical conditions were associated with toxoplasmosis deaths, including human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), lymphoma, leukemia, and connective tissue disorders. The number of toxoplasmosis deaths with an HIV codiagnosis declined from 2000 to 2010; the numbers without such a codiagnosis remained static. Cumulative disease-related productivity losses for the 11-year period were nearly $815 million. Although toxoplasmosis mortality has declined in the last decade, the infection remains costly and is an important cause of preventable death among non-HIV subgroups. PMID:25200264

  13. Prediction values of T wave alternans for sudden cardiac death in patients with chronic heart failure: a brief review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xian; Ma, Long-Le; Yao, Dao-Kuo; Wang, Le-Xin

    2011-01-01

    More than 50% of patients with heart failure die from sudden cardiac death as a result of malignant arrhythmia. T wave alternans (TWA) is a convenient, noninvasive, and inexpensive testing modality, with a higher sensitivity and specificity for sudden cardiac death. Its prediction value for malignant arrhythmia may even exceed electrophysiologic study. Generally, the algorithms of TWA can be divided into frequency-domain and time-domain methods, and the latter has a stronger anti-interference ability. So far, a unified measuring formula and diagnostic criteria about TWA measurements have been created. Large clinical studies in recent years strongly suggest that TWA can predict sudden cardiac death, which can be used as a guide for the implanting of implantable cardioverter-defibrillator. This article reviews the current literature on recording techniques and clinical implications of TWA. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  14. Clinical Prediction of Suicide and Undetermined Death: A Pseudo-Prospective Clinical and Medico-Legal Study of Substance Abusers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brådvik, Louise; Berglund, Mats; Frank, Arne; Löwenhielm, Peter

    2017-03-17

    This study examines aspects of prediction of suicide and death of undetermined intent. We investigated all consecutive, autopsied patients between 1993 and 1997 who had been in contact with the Addiction Centre in Malmö from 1968 onwards. The staff was asked, shortly after autopsy but before they knew of the manner of death, if they thought the patient had committed suicide. The case records were blindly evaluated, and toxicological autopsy findings for alcohol in blood samples investigated. The specificity of prediction was 83% and significantly more often correct than the sensitivity, which was only 45% for suicide and for suicide/death of undetermined intent (93% versus 39%). Suicidal communication was more often considered non-serious before death of undetermined intent than before suicide. The former could be predicted by ideation but not by suicide attempt reported in case records, unlike suicide, which was predicted by both. The undetermined group also showed higher levels of alcohol in the blood at autopsy. We concluded that more serious clinical investigation of suicidal feelings, which may be hidden and not taken seriously, and treatment of alcohol use disorders with active follow-up appear urgent in the efforts to prevent suicide.

  15. Early echocardiographic deformation analysis for the prediction of sudden cardiac death and life-threatening arrhythmias after myocardial infarction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ersbøll, Mads; Valeur, Nana; Andersen, Mads Jønsson

    2013-01-01

    This study sought to hypothesize that global longitudinal strain (GLS) as a measure of infarct size, and mechanical dispersion (MD) as a measure of myocardial deformation heterogeneity, would be of incremental importance for the prediction of sudden cardiac death (SCD) or malignant ventricular...

  16. Programmed cell death protein-1/programmed cell death ligand-1 pathway inhibition and predictive biomarkers: understanding transforming growth factor-beta role.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santarpia, Mariacarmela; González-Cao, María; Viteri, Santiago; Karachaliou, Niki; Altavilla, Giuseppe; Rosell, Rafael

    2015-12-01

    A deeper understanding of the key role of the immune system in regulating tumor growth and progression has led to the development of a number of immunotherapies, including cancer vaccines and immune checkpoint inhibitors. Immune checkpoint inhibitors target molecular pathways involved in immunosuppression, such as cytotoxic T-lymphocyte-associated antigen-4 (CTLA-4) and programmed cell death protein-1 (PD-1)/programmed cell death ligand-1 (PD-L1) pathway, with the goal to enhance the host's own immune anticancer response. In phase I-III trials, anti-PD-1/PD-L1 antibodies have demonstrated to be effective treatment strategies by inducing significant durable tumor responses, with manageable toxicities, in patients with various malignancies, including those traditionally considered non-immunogenic, such as non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Identification of predictive biomarkers to select patients for immune therapies is currently being investigated to improve their therapeutic efficacy. Transforming growth factor-β (TGF-β), a pleiotropic cytokine with immunosuppressive effects on multiple cell types of the innate and adaptive immune system, has emerged as one of the potential key factors modulating response to immune checkpoint inhibitors. However, due to the complexity of the anti-cancer immune response, the predictive value of many other factors related to cancer cells or tumor microenvironment needs to be further explored.

  17. Predicting women purchase intention for green food products in Indonesia

    OpenAIRE

    Sudiyanti, Sudiyanti

    2009-01-01

    Masteroppgave i økonomi og administrasjon - Universitetet i Agder 2009 This study investigated the applicability of the Theory of Planned Behavior in predicting women consumers on their intention towards purchasing green food products among 406 participants. Using linear regression, five independent variables had been examined: attitude towards green food products, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control, and perceived difficulty in predicting purchase intention. The ...

  18. The utilization of twelve-lead electrocardiography for predicting sudden cardiac death after heart transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Hung-Yu; Yin, Wei-Hsian; Lo, Li-Wei; Lin, Yenn-Jiang; Chang, Shih-Lin; Hu, Yu-Feng; Feng, An-Ning; Chiang, Meng-Cheng; Young, Mason-Shing; Chang, Chong-Yi; Chuang, Yi-Cheng; Chong, Eric; Chen, Shih-Ann; Wei, Jeng

    2013-10-03

    Sudden cardiac death (SCD) occurs commonly after heart transplantation (HTX). The utilization of surface electrocardiography (ECG) to assess post-HTX SCD has not been investigated thoroughly. This study aimed to investigate the specific changes in surface ECG in HTX patients with SCD. A total of 227 HTX patients (age 48 ± 14 y/o, mean donor age 34 ± 14 y/o, 173 males) were followed up regularly at the outpatient clinic. Twelve-lead ECG's were recorded during 1-2 monthly visits. Serial ECG parameters and relevant clinical data were collected and analyzed. During the follow-up period of 96 ± 51 months, SCD occurred in 28 (12.3%) patients. The baseline ECG parameters were comparable between patients with and without SCD. Important ECG trends of rising rest heart rates and prolongation of corrected QT (QTc) and JT (JTc) intervals were observed prior to development of SCD. After adjustment for other clinical variables, the independent predictors for SCD were older donor age (p = 0.014, OR 1.05, 95% CI 1.01-1.09), faster heart rate (p = 0.006, OR 1.06, 95% CI 1.02-1.1) and longer JTc interval (p = 0.015, OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.01-1.06). SCD occurred in 71.4% patients presenting with all three risk predictors. Besides older donor age, important ECG signs, including prolongation of the JTc interval and increased heart rate during post HTX follow up, could predict SCD. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Development and validation of QMortality risk prediction algorithm to estimate short term risk of death and assess frailty: cohort study

    OpenAIRE

    Hippisley-Cox, Julia; Coupland, Carol

    2017-01-01

    Objectives:\\ud To derive and validate a risk prediction equation to estimate the short term risk of death, and to develop a classification method for frailty based on risk of death and risk of unplanned hospital admission.\\ud \\ud Design:\\ud Prospective open cohort study.\\ud \\ud Participants: \\ud Routinely collected data from 1436 general practices contributing data to QResearch in England between 2012 and 2016. 1079 practices were used to develop the scores and a separate set of 357 practices...

  20. Palmitate-induced NO production has a dual action to reduce cell death through NO and accentuate cell death through peroxynitrite formation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabkin, Simon W; Klassen, Shaun S

    2008-02-01

    The objective of this study was to determine the role of palmitate-induced stimulation of nitric oxide synthase (NOS) on palmitate-induced cell death, specifically distinguishing the effects of the subtype NOS2 from NOS3, defining the effect of NO on mitochondria death pathways, and determining whether palmitate induces peroxynitrite formation which may impact cardiomyocyte cell survival. Cardiomyocytes from embryonic chick hearts were treated with palmitate 300-500 microM. Cell death was assessed by the 3-[4,5-dimethylthiazol-2-yl]-2,5-diphenyl tetrazolium bromide (MTT) assay. The ability of palmitate to induce NO production and its consequences were tested by using the NOS inhibitor 7-nitroindazole (7-N) and the peroxynitrite scavenger (5,10,15,20-tetrakis(4-sulfonatophenyl)porphyrinato iron (III) chloride) (FeTPPS). The effect of palmitate on the mitochondria was assessed by Western blotting for cytochrome c release into the cytosol, and assessment of mitochondrial transmembrane potential (DeltaPsi(m)) by 5,5',6,6'-tetrachloro-1,1',3,3'-tetraethyl-benzimidazolyl-carbocyanine iodide staining and immunocytochemistry. The NOS inhibitor 7-N, which is selective for NOS2 and not for NOS3, significantly (pdeath. In contrast, 7-N did not alter cell death produced by the combination of potassium cyanide and deoxyglucose, which, respectively, inhibit glycolysis and oxidative phosphorylation. The mitochondrial actions of palmitate, specifically palmitate-induced translocation of mitochondrial cytochrome c to cytosol and loss of mitochondrial transmembrane potential, were not altered by pretreatment with 7-N. FeTPPS, which isomerizes peroxynitrite to nitrate and thereby reduces the toxic effects of peroxynitrite, produced a significant reduction in palmitate-induced cell death. In summary, these data suggest that palmitate stimulates NO production, which has a dual action to protect against cell death or to induce cell death. Palmitate-induced cell death is mediated, in

  1. European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2015: does lung cancer have the highest death rate in EU women?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malvezzi, M; Bertuccio, P; Rosso, T; Rota, M; Levi, F; La Vecchia, C; Negri, E

    2015-04-01

    Cancer mortality statistics for 2015 were projected from the most recent available data for the European Union (EU) and its six more populous countries. Prostate cancer was analysed in detail. Population and death certification data from stomach, colorectum, pancreas, lung, breast, uterus, prostate, leukaemias and total cancers were obtained from the World Health Organisation database and Eurostat. Figures were derived for the EU, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the UK. Projected 2015 numbers of deaths by age group were obtained by linear regression on estimated numbers of deaths over the most recent time period identified by a joinpoint regression model. A total of 1,359,100 cancer deaths are predicted in the EU in 2015 (766,200 men and 592,900 women), corresponding to standardised death rates of 138.4/100,000 men and 83.9/100,000 women, falling 7.5% and 6%, respectively, since 2009. In men, predicted rates for the three major cancers (lung, colorectum and prostate) are lower than in 2009, falling 9%, 5% and 12%. Prostate cancer showed predicted falls of 14%, 17% and 9% in the 35-64, 65-74 and 75+ age groups. In women, breast and colorectal cancers had favourable trends (-10% and -8%), but predicted lung cancer rates rise 9% to 14.24/100,000 becoming the cancer with the highest rate, reaching and possibly overtaking breast cancer rates--though the total number of deaths remain higher for breast (90 800) than lung (87 500). Pancreatic cancer has a negative outlook in both sexes, rising 4% in men and 5% in women between 2009 and 2015. Cancer mortality predictions for 2015 confirm the overall favourable cancer mortality trend in the EU, translating to an overall 26% fall in men since its peak in 1988, and 21% in women, and the avoidance of over 325,000 deaths in 2015 compared with the peak rate. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society for Medical Oncology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email

  2. Savanna browse production. 2: Prediction | Penderis | African ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... land managers with valuable insight whether the browse component of the system is under stress, is maintaining, or is encroaching, as well as the impact of browsers on the system. Keywords: browser carrying capacity, growing season, multivariate adaptive regression splines, predictive models. African Journal of Range ...

  3. CDDIS_GNSS_products_ionosphere_predicted

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Ionosphere Total Electron Content (TEC) grids derived from analysis of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data. These products are the generated by analysis...

  4. Predicting treatment failure, death and drug resistance using a computed risk score among newly diagnosed TB patients in Tamaulipas, Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdelbary, B E; Garcia-Viveros, M; Ramirez-Oropesa, H; Rahbar, M H; Restrepo, B I

    2017-10-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop a method for identifying newly diagnosed tuberculosis (TB) patients at risk for TB adverse events in Tamaulipas, Mexico. Surveillance data between 2006 and 2013 (8431 subjects) was used to develop risk scores based on predictive modelling. The final models revealed that TB patients failing their treatment regimen were more likely to have at most a primary school education, multi-drug resistance (MDR)-TB, and few to moderate bacilli on acid-fast bacilli smear. TB patients who died were more likely to be older males with MDR-TB, HIV, malnutrition, and reporting excessive alcohol use. Modified risk scores were developed with strong predictability for treatment failure and death (c-statistic 0·65 and 0·70, respectively), and moderate predictability for drug resistance (c-statistic 0·57). Among TB patients with diabetes, risk scores showed moderate predictability for death (c-statistic 0·68). Our findings suggest that in the clinical setting, the use of our risk scores for TB treatment failure or death will help identify these individuals for tailored management to prevent these adverse events. In contrast, the available variables in the TB surveillance dataset are not robust predictors of drug resistance, indicating the need for prompt testing at time of diagnosis.

  5. Genetic testing to predict sudden cardiac death: current perspectives and future goals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia G. Priori

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available It is known that monogenic traits may predispose young and otherwise healthy individuals to die suddenly. Diseases such as Long QT Syndrome, Brugada Syndrome and Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy are well known causes of arrhythmic death in young individuals. For several years the concept of “genetic predisposition” to sudden cardiac death has been limited to these uncommon diseases. In the last few years clinical data have supported the view that risk of dying suddenly may cluster in families, supporting the hypothesis of a genetic component for sudden cardiac death. In this review I will try to provide an overview of current knowledge about genetics of sudden death. I will approach this topic by discussing first where we stand in the use of genetics for risk stratification and therapy selection in monogenic diseases and I will then move to discuss the contribution of genetics to patient profiling in acquired cardiovascular diseases.

  6. Predicting death from kala-azar: construction, development, and validation of a score set and accompanying software.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, Dorcas Lamounier; Rocha, Regina Lunardi; Chaves, Eldo de Brito Ferreira; Batista, Vivianny Gonçalves de Vasconcelos; Costa, Henrique Lamounier; Costa, Carlos Henrique Nery

    2016-01-01

    Early identification of patients at higher risk of progressing to severe disease and death is crucial for implementing therapeutic and preventive measures; this could reduce the morbidity and mortality from kala-azar. We describe a score set composed of four scales in addition to software for quick assessment of the probability of death from kala-azar at the point of care. Data from 883 patients diagnosed between September 2005 and August 2008 were used to derive the score set, and data from 1,031 patients diagnosed between September 2008 and November 2013 were used to validate the models. Stepwise logistic regression analyses were used to derive the optimal multivariate prediction models. Model performance was assessed by its discriminatory accuracy. A computational specialist system (Kala-Cal(r)) was developed to speed up the calculation of the probability of death based on clinical scores. The clinical prediction score showed high discrimination (area under the curve [AUC] 0.90) for distinguishing death from survival for children ≤2 years old. Performance improved after adding laboratory variables (AUC 0.93). The clinical score showed equivalent discrimination (AUC 0.89) for older children and adults, which also improved after including laboratory data (AUC 0.92). The score set also showed a high, although lower, discrimination when applied to the validation cohort. This score set and Kala-Cal(r) software may help identify individuals with the greatest probability of death. The associated software may speed up the calculation of the probability of death based on clinical scores and assist physicians in decision-making.

  7. Apocynin attenuates cholesterol oxidation product-induced programmed cell death by suppressing NF-κB-mediated cell death process in differentiated PC12 cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Da Hee; Nam, Yoon Jeong; Lee, Chung Soo

    2015-10-01

    Cholesterol oxidation products are suggested to be involved in neuronal degeneration. Apocynin has demonstrated to have anti-inflammatory and anti-oxidant effects. We assessed the effect of apocynin on the cholesterol oxidation product-induced programmed cell death in neuronal cells using differentiated PC12 cells in relation to NF-κB-mediated cell death process. 7-Ketocholesterol and 25-hydroxycholesterol decreased the levels of Bid and Bcl-2, increased the levels of Bax and p53, and induced loss of the mitochondrial transmembrane potential, release of cytochrome c and activation of caspases (-8, -9 and -3). 7-Ketocholesterol caused an increase in the levels of cytosolic and nuclear NF-κB p65, cytosolic NF-κB p50 and cytosolic phospho-IκB-α, which was inhibited by the addition of 0.5 μM Bay11-7085 (an inhibitor of NF-κB activation). Apocynin attenuated the cholesterol oxidation product-induced changes in the programmed cell death-related protein levels, NF-κB activation, production of reactive oxygen species, and depletion of GSH. The results show that apocynin appears to attenuate the cholesterol oxidation product-induced programmed cell death in PC12 cells by suppressing the activation of the mitochondrial pathway and the caspase-8- and Bid-dependent pathways that are mediated by NF-κB activation. The preventive effect appears to be associated with the inhibitory effect on the production of reactive oxygen species and depletion of GSH. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Genetic testing to predict sudden cardiac death: current perspectives and future goals

    OpenAIRE

    Priori, Silvia G.

    2014-01-01

    It is known that monogenic traits may predispose young and otherwise healthy individuals to die suddenly. Diseases such as Long QT Syndrome, Brugada Syndrome and Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy are well known causes of arrhythmic death in young individuals. For several years the concept of “genetic predisposition” to sudden cardiac death has been limited to these uncommon diseases. In the last few years clinical data have supported the view that risk of dying suddenly may clus...

  9. Predictive ability of egg production models | Oni | Nigerian Journal of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The monthly egg production data of a strain of Rhode Island chickens were used to compare three mathematical models (the Parabolic exponential, Wood's Gamma and modified Gamma by McNally) on their ability to predict 52 week total egg production from part-production at 16, 20, and 24 weeks, on a hen-housed basis.

  10. SEISMIC PREDICTION USING UNATTACHED RADON DECAY PRODUCTS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harley, Naomi H; Chittaporn, Passaporn; Fisenne, Isabel M

    2017-11-01

    Long-term measurements of the 222Rn concentration, 222Rn decay product activity, particle size distribution, and unattached, and attached 222Rn decay products, were made at two locations using the 22 y radon decay product 210Pb as their tracer. The particle size sampler collects both short lived 222Rn decay products that ultimately decay to 210Pb on the filters, and also airborne 210Pb. The measurements were made outdoors, at a suburban home and at Fernald, OH, a former uranium processing facility, on top of one of the two 226Ra storage silos containing 150 TBq 226Ra. The size distributions showed the unattached fractions, i.e. particle diameter 2-4 nm, to be 1.5% at the home and 14% at the silos. The unattached fraction of 218Po can be shown to be an immediate measure of the 222Rn concentration. The data indicates detection of the pressure driven 222Rn flow at the silo and with the enhanced measurement capability of a filtered air source versus the usual 222Rn gas measurement. It is proposed that real time measurements of unattached 218Po may be used to identify rapidly changing 222Rn concentrations associated with pressure driven soil air flow associated with seismic activity. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  11. The novel marker LTBP2 predicts all-cause and pulmonary death in patients with acute dyspnoea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breidthardt, Tobias; Vanpoucke, Griet; Potocki, Mihael; Mosimann, Tamina; Ziller, Ronny; Thomas, Gregoire; Laroy, Wouter; Moerman, Piet; Socrates, Thenral; Drexler, Beatrice; Mebazaa, Alexandre; Kas, Koen; Mueller, Christian

    2012-11-01

    The risk stratification in patients presenting with acute dyspnoea remains a challenge. We therefore conducted a prospective, observational cohort study enrolling 292 patients presenting to the emergency department with acute dyspnoea. A proteomic approach for antibody-free targeted protein quantification based on high-end MS was used to measure LTBP2 [latent TGF (transforming growth factor)-binding protein 2] levels. Final diagnosis and death during follow-up were adjudicated blinded to LTBP2 levels. AHF (acute heart failure) was the final diagnosis in 54% of patients. In both AHF (PN-terminal pro-B-type natriuruetic peptide; 0.77 (95% CI, 0.72-0.82)]. Importantly, the predictive potential of LTBP2 persisted in patients with AHF as the cause of dypnea (AUC 0.78) and was independent of renal dysfunction (AUC 0.77). In a multivariate Cox regression analysis, LTBP2 was the strongest independent predictor of death [HR (hazard ratio), 3.76 (95% CI, 2.13-6.64); P<0.0001]. In conclusion, plasma levels of LTBP2 present a novel and powerful predictor of all-cause mortality, and particularly pulmonary death. Cause-specific prediction of death would enable targeted prevention, e.g. with pre-emptive antibiotic therapy.

  12. Dengue fever mortality score: A novel decision rule to predict death from dengue fever.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Chien-Cheng; Hsu, Chien-Chin; Guo, How-Ran; Su, Shih-Bin; Lin, Hung-Jung

    2017-12-01

    Dengue fever (DF) is still a major challenge for public health, especially during massive outbreaks. We developed a novel prediction score to help decision making, which has not been performed till date. We conducted a retrospective case-control study to recruit all the DF patients who visited a medical center during the 2015 DF outbreak. Demographic data, vital signs, symptoms/signs, chronic comorbidities, laboratory data, and 30-day mortality rates were included in the study. Univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis were used to identify the independent mortality predictors, which further formed the components of a DF mortality (DFM) score. Bootstrapping method was used to validate the DFM score. In total, a sample of 2358 DF patients was included in this study, which also consisted of 34 deaths (1.44%). Five independent mortality predictors were identified: elderly age (≥65 years), hypotension (systolic blood pressure <90 mmHg), hemoptysis, diabetes mellitus, and chronic bedridden. After assigning each predictor a score of "1", we developed a DFM score (range: 0-5), which showed that the mortality risk ratios for scores 0, 1, 2, and ≥3 were 0.2%, 2.3%, 6.0%, and 45.5%, respectively. The area under the curve was 0.849 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.785-0.914), and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit was 0.642. Compared with score 0, the odds ratios for mortality were 12.73 (95% CI: 3.58-45.30) for score 1, 34.21 (95% CI: 9.75-119.99) for score 2, and 443.89 (95% CI: 86.06-2289.60) for score ≥3, with significant differences (all p values <0.001). The score ≥1 had a sensitivity of 91.2% for mortality and score ≥3 had a specificity of 99.7% for mortality. DFM score was a simple and easy method to help decision making, especially in the massive outbreak. Further studies in other hospitals or nations are warranted to validate this score. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  13. Sudden cardiac death and pump failure death prediction in chronic heart failure by combining ECG and clinical markers in an integrated risk model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramírez, Julia; Orini, Michele; Mincholé, Ana; Monasterio, Violeta; Cygankiewicz, Iwona; Bayés de Luna, Antonio; Martínez, Juan Pablo; Laguna, Pablo; Pueyo, Esther

    2017-01-01

    Sudden cardiac death (SCD) and pump failure death (PFD) are common endpoints in chronic heart failure (CHF) patients, but prevention strategies are different. Currently used tools to specifically predict these endpoints are limited. We developed risk models to specifically assess SCD and PFD risk in CHF by combining ECG markers and clinical variables. The relation of clinical and ECG markers with SCD and PFD risk was assessed in 597 patients enrolled in the MUSIC (MUerte Súbita en Insuficiencia Cardiaca) study. ECG indices included: turbulence slope (TS), reflecting autonomic dysfunction; T-wave alternans (TWA), reflecting ventricular repolarization instability; and T-peak-to-end restitution (ΔαTpe) and T-wave morphology restitution (TMR), both reflecting changes in dispersion of repolarization due to heart rate changes. Standard clinical indices were also included. The indices with the greatest SCD prognostic impact were gender, New York Heart Association (NYHA) class, left ventricular ejection fraction, TWA, ΔαTpe and TMR. For PFD, the indices were diabetes, NYHA class, ΔαTpe and TS. Using a model with only clinical variables, the hazard ratios (HRs) for SCD and PFD for patients in the high-risk group (fifth quintile of risk score) with respect to patients in the low-risk group (first and second quintiles of risk score) were both greater than 4. HRs for SCD and PFD increased to 9 and 11 when using a model including only ECG markers, and to 14 and 13, when combining clinical and ECG markers. The inclusion of ECG markers capturing complementary pro-arrhythmic and pump failure mechanisms into risk models based only on standard clinical variables substantially improves prediction of SCD and PFD in CHF patients.

  14. Sudden cardiac death and pump failure death prediction in chronic heart failure by combining ECG and clinical markers in an integrated risk model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orini, Michele; Mincholé, Ana; Monasterio, Violeta; Cygankiewicz, Iwona; Bayés de Luna, Antonio; Martínez, Juan Pablo

    2017-01-01

    Background Sudden cardiac death (SCD) and pump failure death (PFD) are common endpoints in chronic heart failure (CHF) patients, but prevention strategies are different. Currently used tools to specifically predict these endpoints are limited. We developed risk models to specifically assess SCD and PFD risk in CHF by combining ECG markers and clinical variables. Methods The relation of clinical and ECG markers with SCD and PFD risk was assessed in 597 patients enrolled in the MUSIC (MUerte Súbita en Insuficiencia Cardiaca) study. ECG indices included: turbulence slope (TS), reflecting autonomic dysfunction; T-wave alternans (TWA), reflecting ventricular repolarization instability; and T-peak-to-end restitution (ΔαTpe) and T-wave morphology restitution (TMR), both reflecting changes in dispersion of repolarization due to heart rate changes. Standard clinical indices were also included. Results The indices with the greatest SCD prognostic impact were gender, New York Heart Association (NYHA) class, left ventricular ejection fraction, TWA, ΔαTpe and TMR. For PFD, the indices were diabetes, NYHA class, ΔαTpe and TS. Using a model with only clinical variables, the hazard ratios (HRs) for SCD and PFD for patients in the high-risk group (fifth quintile of risk score) with respect to patients in the low-risk group (first and second quintiles of risk score) were both greater than 4. HRs for SCD and PFD increased to 9 and 11 when using a model including only ECG markers, and to 14 and 13, when combining clinical and ECG markers. Conclusion The inclusion of ECG markers capturing complementary pro-arrhythmic and pump failure mechanisms into risk models based only on standard clinical variables substantially improves prediction of SCD and PFD in CHF patients. PMID:29020031

  15. Predicting in-hospital death during acute presentation with pulmonary embolism to facilitate early discharge and outpatient management.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jerrett K Lau

    Full Text Available Pulmonary embolism continues to be a significant cause of death. The aim was to derive and validate a risk prediction model for in-hospital death after acute pulmonary embolism to identify low risk patients suitable for outpatient management.A confirmed acute pulmonary embolism database of 1,426 consecutive patients admitted to a tertiary-center (2000-2012 was analyzed, with odd and even years as derivation and validation cohorts respectively. Risk stratification for in-hospital death was performed using multivariable logistic-regression modelling. Models were compared using receiver-operating characteristic-curve and decision curve analyses.In-hospital mortality was 3.6% in the derivation cohort (n = 693. Adding day-1 sodium and bicarbonate to simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (sPESI significantly increased the C-statistic for predicting in-hospital death (0.71 to 0.86, P = 0.001. The validation cohort yielded similar results (n = 733, C-statistic 0.85. The new model was associated with a net reclassification improvement of 0.613, and an integrated discrimination improvement of 0.067. The new model also increased the C-statistic for predicting 30-day mortality compared to sPESI alone (0.74 to 0.83, P = 0.002. Decision curve analysis demonstrated superior clinical benefit with the use of the new model to guide admission for pulmonary embolism, resulting in 43 fewer admissions per 100 presentations based on a risk threshold for admission of 2%.A risk model incorporating sodium, bicarbonate, and the sPESI provides accurate risk prediction of acute in-hospital mortality after pulmonary embolism. Our novel model identifies patients with pulmonary embolism who are at low risk and who may be suitable for outpatient management.

  16. Prediction of all-cause death in hemodialysis patients using elevated postdialysis pulse wave velocity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Xiaohong; Yang, Jihong; Fan, Zhaoxin; Chen, Xianguang; Wu, Jie; Li, Jie; Wu, Hua

    2016-02-01

    To identify the relationship between predialysis pulse wave velocity (PWV), postdialysis PWV during 1 hemodialysis (HD) session, and deaths in maintenance HD patients. 43 patients were recruited. PWV was measured before and after one HD session and dialysis- related data were recorded. Clinical data such as blood pressure, blood lipids, and blood glucose, were carefully observed and managed in a 5-year follow-up. The association between all-cause death, predialysis PWV, postdialysis PWV, change of PWV (ΔPWV), and other related variables were analyzed. After 5 years, 17 patients (39.5%) died. Univariate Cox regression analysis showed that all-cause death of the patients significantly correlated with age, postdialysis PWV, and ΔPWV. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that postdialysis PWV was an independent predictor for all-cause death in these patients (HR: 1.377, 95% CI: 1.146 - 1.656, p = 0.001). Elevated postdialysis PWV significantly correlated with and was an independent predictor for all-cause death in maintenance HD patients.

  17. Degree Of Diminution In Vagal-Cardiac Activity Predicts Sudden Death In Familial Dysautonomia When Resting Tachycardia Is Absent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlegel, T. T.; Marthol, H.; Bucchner, S.; Tutaj, M.; Berlin, D.; Axelrod, F. B.; Hilz, M. J.

    2004-01-01

    Patients with familial dysautonomia (FD) have an increased risk of sudden death, but sensitive and specific predictors of sudden death in FD are lacking. Methods. We recorded 10-min resting high-fidelity 12-lead ECGs in 14 FD patients and in 14 age/gender-matched healthy subjects and studied 25+ different heart rate variability (HRV) indices for their ability to predict sudden death in the FD patients. Indices studied included those from 4 "nonlinear" HRV techniques (detrended fluctuation analysis, approximate entropy, correlation dimension, and PoincarC analyses). The predictive value of PR, QRS, QTc and JTc intervals, QT dispersion (QTd), beat-to-beat QT and PR interval variability indices (QTVI and PRVI) and 12- lead high frequency QRS ECG (150-250 Hz) were also studied. FD patients and controls (C) differed (Pless than 0.0l) with respect to 20+ of the HRV indices (FD less than C) and with respect to QTVI and PRVI (FDBC) and HF QRS- related root mean squared voltages (FDBC) and reduced amplitude zone counts (FD less than C). They differed less with respect to PR intervals (FD less than C) and JTc intervals (FD greater than C) (P less than 0.05 for both) and did not differ at all with respect to QRS and QTc intervals and to QTd. Within 12 months after study, 2 of the 14 patients succumbed to sudden cardiac arrest. The best predictor of sudden death was the degree of diminution in HRV vagal-cardiac (parasympathetic) parameters such as RMSSD, the SDl of Poincare plots, and HF spectral power. Excluding the two FD patients who had resting tachycardia (HR greater than 100, which confounds traditional HRV analyses), the following criteria were independently 100% sensitive and 100% specific for predicting sudden death in the remaining 12 FD patients during spontaneous breathing: RMSSD less than 13 ms and/or PoincarC SD1 less than 9 ms. In FD patients without supine tachycardia, the degree of diminution in parasympathetic HRV parameters (by high-fidelity ECG) predicts

  18. Development and internal validation of a multivariable model to predict perinatal death in pregnancy hypertension

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Payne, Beth A.; Groen, Henk; Ukah, U. Vivian; Ansermino, J. Mark; Bhutta, Zulfiqar; Grobman, William; Hall, David R.; Hutcheon, Jennifer A.; Magee, Laura A.; von Dadelszen, Peter

    2015-01-01

    Objective: To develop and internally validate a prognostic model for perinatal death that could guide community-based antenatal care of women with a hypertensive disorder of pregnancy (HDP) in low-resourced settings as part of a mobile health application. Study design: Using data from 1688 women

  19. Coronary artery calcification detected in lung cancer screening predicts cardiovascular death

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Thomas; Køber, Lars; Abdulla, Jawdat

    2015-01-01

    .001), respectively. Adjusted HR of cardiovascular death associated with CAC >400 was 3.8 (1.0-15) (p cardiovascular events (p ...-electrocardiogram-gated CAC in lung cancer screening programs is a robust prognostic measure of fatal or non-fatal cardiovascular events in current and former smokers independent of traditional cardiovascular risk factors....

  20. In-hospital Death Prediction by Multilevel Logistic Regressin in Patients with Acute Coronary Syndromes

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Reissigová, Jindra; Monhart, Z.; Zvárová, Jana; Hanzlíček, Petr; Grünfeldová, H.; Janský, P.; Vojáček, J.; Widimský, P.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 9, č. 1 (2013), s. 11-17 ISSN 1801-5603 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : multilevel logistic regression * acute coronary syndromes * risk factors * in-hospital death Subject RIV: IN - Informatics, Computer Science http://www.ejbi.org/img/ejbi/2013/1/Reissigova_en.pdf

  1. Family Member Deaths in Childhood Predict Systemic Inflammation in Late Life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norton, Maria C; Hatch, Daniel J; Munger, Ronald G; Smith, Ken R

    2017-01-01

    Biological and epidemiological evidence has linked early-life psychosocial stress with late-life health, with inflammation as a potential mechanism. We report here the association between familial death in childhood and adulthood and increased levels of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (CRP), a marker of systemic inflammation. The Cache County Memory Study is a prospective study of persons initially aged 65 and older in 1995. In 2002, there were 1,955 persons in the study with data on CRP (42.3 percent male, mean [SD] age = 81.2 [5.8] years), linked with objective data on family member deaths. Using logistic regression, high (> 10 mg/L) versus low (≤ 10 mg/L) CRP was regressed on cumulative parental, sibling, spouse, and offspring deaths during childhood and during early adulthood, adjusted for family size in each period (percentage family depletion; PFD). Findings revealed PFD during childhood to be significantly associated with CRP (OR = 1.02, 95% CI [1.01, 1.04]). Individuals with two or more family deaths were 79 percent more likely to have elevated CRP than those with zero family deaths (OR = 1.79, 95% CI [1.07, 2.99]). Early adulthood PFD was not related to CRP. This study demonstrates a link between significant psychosocial stress in early life and immune-inflammatory functioning in late life, and suggests a mechanism explaining the link between early-life adversity and late-life health.

  2. A novel approach to predict sudden cardiac death (SCD using nonlinear and time-frequency analyses from HRV signals.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elias Ebrahimzadeh

    Full Text Available Investigations show that millions of people all around the world die as the result of sudden cardiac death (SCD. These deaths can be reduced by using medical equipment, such as defibrillators, after detection. We need to propose suitable ways to assist doctors to predict sudden cardiac death with a high level of accuracy. To do this, Linear, Time-Frequency (TF and Nonlinear features have been extracted from HRV of ECG signal. Finally, healthy people and people at risk of SCD are classified by k-Nearest Neighbor (k-NN and Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network (MLP. To evaluate, we have compared the classification rates for both separate and combined Nonlinear and TF features. The results show that HRV signals have special features in the vicinity of the occurrence of SCD that have the ability to distinguish between patients prone to SCD and normal people. We found that the combination of Time-Frequency and Nonlinear features have a better ability to achieve higher accuracy. The experimental results show that the combination of features can predict SCD by the accuracy of 99.73%, 96.52%, 90.37% and 83.96% for the first, second, third and forth one-minute intervals, respectively, before SCD occurrence.

  3. A comparison of the yield, nutritional value and predicted production ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The yield, nutritional value and production potential of silage made from twenty one maize hybrids was compared. The digestibility of organic matter and predicted intake, mean retention time and milk production potential were found to differ between hybrids (p < 0.05). Acid detergent fibre content could not be used to ...

  4. Numerical product design: Springback prediction, compensation and optimization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meinders, Vincent T.; Burchitz, I.A.; Bonte, M.H.A.; Lingbeek, R.A.

    2007-01-01

    Numerical simulations are being deployed widely for product design. However, the accuracy of the numerical tools is not yet always sufficiently accurate and reliable. This article focuses on the current state and recent developments in different stages of product design: springback prediction,

  5. Population-based study evaluating and predicting the probability of death resulting from thyroid cancer and other causes among patients with thyroid cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Limin; Shen, Weidong; Sakamoto, Naoko

    2013-02-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the probability of death for patients with thyroid cancer and construct a comprehensive nomogram based on a competing risks model to predict cumulative incidence of death resulting from thyroid cancer, other cancers, and non-cancer-related causes. Patients diagnosed with thyroid cancer between 1988 and 2003 were selected for the study from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program. We estimated probabilities of death resulting from thyroid cancer, other cancers, and noncancer causes and analyzed associations of patient and tumor characteristics with probability of death. A nomogram for predicting probability of death was built using a proportional subdistribution hazard competing risks model. The entire cohort comprised 29,225 patients with malignant thyroid cancer. Median duration of follow-up until censoring or death was 85 months (range, 0 to 239 months). Five-year probabilities of death resulting from thyroid cancer, other cancer, and noncancer causes were 1.9%, 0.8%, and 1.7%, respectively. Increasing age and tumor size, male sex, poorly differentiated carcinoma, lymph node involvement, and regional and metastatic disease were associated with increased cumulative incidence of death resulting from thyroid cancer. A nomogram based on a competing risks model was developed for predicting the probability of death for patients with thyroid cancer. Performance of the model was excellent. This nomogram may be useful for patients and clinicians when predictions are needed.

  6. The Doppler echocardiographic myocardial performance index predicts left-ventricular dilation and cardiac death after myocardial infarction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, J E; Søndergaard, E; Poulsen, S H

    2001-01-01

    To investigate the value of the Doppler-derived myocardial performance index to predict early left-ventricular (LV) dilation and cardiac death after a first acute myocardial infarction (AMI), Doppler echocardiography was performed within 24 h of hospital admission, on day 5, 1 and 3 months after...... AMI in 125 consecutive patients. The index measured on day 1 correlated well with the change in end-diastolic volume index observed from day 1 to 3 months following AMI (r = 0.66, p 0.0001). One-year survival in patients with Doppler index index > or = 0......, we conclude that the Doppler echocardiographic myocardial performance index is a predictor of LV dilation and cardiac death after a first AMI....

  7. Impact of the basal metabolic ratio in predicting early deaths after allogeneic stem cell transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishiwaki, Satoshi; Miyamura, Koichi; Seto, Aika; Watanabe, Keisuke; Yanagisawa, Mayumi; Imahashi, Nobuhiko; Shimba, Makoto; Yasuda, Takahiko; Kuwatsuka, Yachiyo; Oba, Taku; Terakura, Seitaro; Kodera, Yoshihisa

    2009-09-01

    Early deaths after allogeneic stem cell transplantation (allo-SCT) are of major concern. On the assumption that both decreased and increased basal metabolism might relate to early deaths, we analyzed the risk factors for overall survival to days 30 (OS30) and 60 (OS60). The Harris-Benedict equation was used to calculate basal metabolism. Comparing a patient's basal metabolism (PBM) calculated from pretransplant body weight with the standard basal metabolism (SBM) calculated from standard body weight (body mass index (BMI) = 22), we defined the basal metabolic ratio (BMR) as a parameter (BMR = PBM/SBM). We retrospectively analyzed 360 adult patients transplanted between 1997 and 2006 at a single center in Japan. A multivariate analysis of OS30 showed risk factors to be: BMR BMR; LBR) (P = 0.01), BMR > 1.05 (high BMR; HBR) (P = 0.005) and non-complete remission (non-CR) (P 5 0.001), whereas a multivariate analysis of OS60 showed those risk factors to be: LBR (P = 0.02), HBR (P = 0.04), non-CR (P = 0.002), and performance status BMR BMR; ABR) (96.8 and 90.3% for ABR, 87.1 and 76.2% for LBR, and 87.8 and 81.1% for HBR). In conclusion, BMR could prove to be a predictor of early death after allo-SCT.

  8. The Anion Gap is a Predictive Clinical Marker for Death in Patients with Acute Pesticide Intoxication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sun-Hyo; Park, Samel; Lee, Jung-Won; Hwang, Il-Woong; Moon, Hyung-Jun; Kim, Ki-Hwan; Park, Su-Yeon; Gil, Hyo-Wook; Hong, Sae-Yong

    2016-07-01

    Pesticide formulation includes solvents (methanol and xylene) and antifreeze (ethylene glycol) whose metabolites are anions such as formic acid, hippuric acid, and oxalate. However, the effect of the anion gap on clinical outcome in acute pesticide intoxication requires clarification. In this prospective study, we compared the anion gap and other parameters between surviving versus deceased patients with acute pesticide intoxication. The following parameters were assessed in 1,058 patients with acute pesticide intoxication: blood chemistry (blood urea nitrogen, creatinine, glucose, lactic acid, liver enzymes, albumin, globulin, and urate), urinalysis (ketone bodies), arterial blood gas analysis, electrolytes (Na(+), K(+), Cl(-) HCO3 (-), Ca(++)), pesticide field of use, class, and ingestion amount, clinical outcome (death rate, length of hospital stay, length of intensive care unit stay, and seriousness of toxic symptoms), and the calculated anion gap. Among the 481 patients with a high anion gap, 52.2% had a blood pH in the physiologic range, 35.8% had metabolic acidosis, and 12.1% had acidemia. Age, anion gap, pesticide field of use, pesticide class, seriousness of symptoms (all P anion gap, and pesticide class were significant risk factors for death in a multiple logistic regression analysis (P anion gap is a significant risk factor for death, regardless of the accompanying acid-base balance status in patients with acute pesticide intoxication.

  9. Diagnostic accuracy of S100B urinary testing at birth in full-term asphyxiated newborns to predict neonatal death.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diego Gazzolo

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Neonatal death in full-term infants who suffer from perinatal asphyxia (PA is a major subject of investigation, since few tools exist to predict patients at risk of ominous outcome. We studied the possibility that urine S100B measurement may identify which PA-affected infants are at risk of early postnatal death. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In a cross-sectional study between January 1, 2001 and December 1, 2006 we measured S100B protein in urine collected from term infants (n = 132, 60 of whom suffered PA. According to their outcome at 7 days, infants with PA were subsequently classified either as asphyxiated infants complicated by hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy with no ominous outcome (HIE Group; n = 48, or as newborns who died within the first post-natal week (Ominous Outcome Group; n = 12. Routine laboratory variables, cerebral ultrasound, neurological patterns and urine concentrations of S100B protein were determined at first urination and after 24, 48 and 96 hours. The severity of illness in the first 24 hours after birth was measured using the Score for Neonatal Acute Physiology-Perinatal Extension (SNAP-PE. Urine S100B levels were higher from the first urination in the ominous outcome group than in healthy or HIE Groups (p1.0 microg/L S100B had a sensitivity/specificity of 100% for predicting neonatal death. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Increased S100B protein urine levels in term newborns suffering PA seem to suggest a higher risk of neonatal death for these infants.

  10. Major Histocompatibility Complex Class II and Programmed Death Ligand 1 Expression Predict Outcome After Programmed Death 1 Blockade in Classic Hodgkin Lymphoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roemer, Margaretha G M; Redd, Robert A; Cader, Fathima Zumla; Pak, Christine J; Abdelrahman, Sara; Ouyang, Jing; Sasse, Stephanie; Younes, Anas; Fanale, Michelle; Santoro, Armando; Zinzani, Pier Luigi; Timmerman, John; Collins, Graham P; Ramchandren, Radhakrishnan; Cohen, Jonathon B; De Boer, Jan Paul; Kuruvilla, John; Savage, Kerry J; Trneny, Marek; Ansell, Stephen; Kato, Kazunobu; Farsaci, Benedetto; Sumbul, Anne; Armand, Philippe; Neuberg, Donna S; Pinkus, Geraldine S; Ligon, Azra H; Rodig, Scott J; Shipp, Margaret A

    2018-02-02

    Purpose Hodgkin Reed-Sternberg (HRS) cells evade antitumor immunity by multiple means, including gains of 9p24.1/ CD274(PD-L1)/ PDCD1LG2(PD-L2) and perturbed antigen presentation. Programmed death 1 (PD-1) receptor blockade is active in classic Hodgkin lymphoma (cHL) despite reported deficiencies of major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class I expression on HRS cells. Herein, we assess bases of sensitivity to PD-1 blockade in patients with relapsed/refractory cHL who were treated with nivolumab (anti-PD-1) in the CheckMate 205 trial. Methods HRS cells from archival tumor biopsies were evaluated for 9p24.1 alterations by fluorescence in situ hybridization and for expression of PD ligand 1 (PD-L1) and the antigen presentation pathway components-β2-microglobulin, MHC class I, and MHC class II-by immunohistochemistry. These parameters were correlated with clinical responses and progression-free survival (PFS) after PD-1 blockade. Results Patients with higher-level 9p24.1 copy gain and increased PD-L1 expression on HRS cells had superior PFS. HRS cell expression of β2-microglobulin/MHC class I was not predictive for complete remission or PFS after nivolumab therapy. In contrast, HRS cell expression of MHC class II was predictive for complete remission. In patients with a > 12-month interval between myeloablative autologous stem-cell transplantation and nivolumab therapy, HRS cell expression of MHC class II was associated with prolonged PFS. Conclusion Genetically driven PD-L1 expression and MHC class II positivity on HRS cells are potential predictors of favorable outcome after PD-1 blockade. In cHL, clinical responses to nivolumab were not dependent on HRS cell expression of MHC class I.

  11. Trends, productivity losses, and associated medical conditions among toxoplasmosis deaths in the United States, 2000-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cummings, Patricia L; Kuo, Tony; Javanbakht, Marjan; Sorvillo, Frank

    2014-11-01

    Few studies have quantified toxoplasmosis mortality, associated medical conditions, and productivity losses in the United States. We examined national multiple cause of death data and estimated productivity losses caused by toxoplasmosis during 2000-2010. A matched case-control analysis examined associations between comorbid medical conditions and toxoplasmosis deaths. In total, 789 toxoplasmosis deaths were identified during the 11-year study period. Blacks and Hispanics had the highest toxoplasmosis mortality compared with whites. Several medical conditions were associated with toxoplasmosis deaths, including human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), lymphoma, leukemia, and connective tissue disorders. The number of toxoplasmosis deaths with an HIV codiagnosis declined from 2000 to 2010; the numbers without such a codiagnosis remained static. Cumulative disease-related productivity losses for the 11-year period were nearly $815 million. Although toxoplasmosis mortality has declined in the last decade, the infection remains costly and is an important cause of preventable death among non-HIV subgroups. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

  12. The unique sound production of the Death's-head hawkmoth ( Acherontia atropos (Linnaeus, 1758)) revisited

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brehm, Gunnar; Fischer, Martin; Gorb, Stanislav; Kleinteich, Thomas; Kühn, Bernhard; Neubert, David; Pohl, Hans; Wipfler, Benjamin; Wurdinger, Susanne

    2015-08-01

    When disturbed, adults of the Death's-head hawkmoth (Lepidoptera, Sphingidae: Acherontia atropos) produce short squeaks by drawing in and deflating air into and out of the pharynx as a defence mechanism. We took a new look at Prell's hypothesis of a two-phase mechanism by providing new insights into the functional morphology behind the pharyngeal sound production of this species. First, we compared the head anatomy of A. atropos with another sphingid species, Manduca sexta, by using micro-computed tomography (CT) and 3D reconstruction methods. Despite differences in feeding behaviour and capability of sound production in the two species, the musculature in the head is surprisingly similar. However, A. atropos has a much shorter proboscis and a modified epipharynx with a distinct sclerotised lobe projecting into the opening of the pharynx. Second, we observed the sound production in vivo with X-ray videography, mammography CT and high-speed videography. Third, we analysed acoustic pressure over time and spectral frequency composition of six A. atropos specimens, both intact and with a removed proboscis. Single squeaks of A. atropos last for ca. 200 ms and consist of an inflation phase, a short pause and a deflation phase. The inflation phase is characterised by a burst of ca. 50 pulses with decreasing pulse frequency and a major frequency peak at ca. 8 kHz, followed by harmonics ranging up to more than 60 kHz. The deflation phase is characterised by a less clear acoustic pattern, a lower amplitude and more pronounced peaks in the same frequency range. The removal of the proboscis resulted in a significantly shortened squeak, a lower acoustic pressure level and a slightly more limited frequency spectrum. We hypothesise that the uptake of viscous honey facilitated the evolution of an efficient valve at the opening of the pharynx (i.e. a modified epipharynx), and that sound production could relatively easily have evolved based on this morphological pre-adaptation.

  13. A Hybrid ANN-GA Model to Prediction of Bivariate Binary Responses: Application to Joint Prediction of Occurrence of Heart Block and Death in Patients with Myocardial Infarction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirian, Negin-Sadat; Sedehi, Morteza; Kheiri, Soleiman; Ahmadi, Ali

    2016-01-01

    In medical studies, when the joint prediction about occurrence of two events should be anticipated, a statistical bivariate model is used. Due to the limitations of usual statistical models, other methods such as Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and hybrid models could be used. In this paper, we propose a hybrid Artificial Neural Network-Genetic Algorithm (ANN-GA) model to prediction the occurrence of heart block and death in myocardial infarction (MI) patients simultaneously. For fitting and comparing the models, 263 new patients with definite diagnosis of MI hospitalized in Cardiology Ward of Hajar Hospital, Shahrekord, Iran, from March, 2014 to March, 2016 were enrolled. Occurrence of heart block and death were employed as bivariate binary outcomes. Bivariate Logistic Regression (BLR), ANN and hybrid ANN-GA models were fitted to data. Prediction accuracy was used to compare the models. The codes were written in Matlab 2013a and Zelig package in R3.2.2. The prediction accuracy of BLR, ANN and hybrid ANN-GA models was obtained 77.7%, 83.69% and 93.85% for the training and 78.48%, 84.81% and 96.2% for the test data, respectively. In both training and test data set, hybrid ANN-GA model had better accuracy. ANN model could be a suitable alternative for modeling and predicting bivariate binary responses when the presuppositions of statistical models are not met in actual data. In addition, using optimization methods, such as hybrid ANN-GA model, could improve precision of ANN model.

  14. Performance-based regulation: enterprise responsibility for reducing death, injury, and disease caused by consumer products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugarman, Stephen D

    2009-12-01

    This article offers a bold new idea for confronting the staggering level of death, injury, and disease caused by five consumer products: cigarettes, alcohol, guns, junk food, and motor vehicles. Business leaders try to frame these negative outcomes as "collateral damage" that is someone else's problem. That framing not only is morally objectionable but also overlooks the possibility that, with proper prodding, industry could substantially lessen these public health disasters. I seek to reframe the public perception of who is responsible and propose to deploy a promising approach called "performance-based regulation" to combat the problem. Performance-based regulation would impose on manufacturers a legal obligation to reduce the negative social costs of their products. Rather than involving them in litigation or forcing them to operate differently (as "command-and-control" regimes do), performance-based regulation allows the firms to determine how best to decrease bad public health consequences. Like other public health strategies, performance-based regulation focuses on those who are far more likely than individual consumers to achieve real gains. Analogous to a tax on causing harm that exceeds a threshold level, performance-based regulation seeks to harness private initiative in pursuit of the public good.

  15. Development of a bedside tool to predict time to death after withdrawal of life-sustaining therapies in infants and children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shore, Paul M; Huang, Rong; Roy, Lonnie; Darnell, Cindy; Grein, Heather; Robertson, Tammy; Thompson, Lisa

    2012-07-01

    To generate a preliminary bedside predictor of rapid time-to-death after withdrawal of support in children to help identify potential candidates for organ donation after circulatory death. Retrospective chart review. Pediatric intensive care unit of an academic children's hospital. All deaths in the pediatric intensive care unit from May 1996 to April 2007. None. Among 1389 deaths, 634 patients underwent withdrawal of support and 518 with complete data regarding demographics, life-supportive therapies, and end-of-life circumstances were analyzed. Three hundred seventy-three (72%) patients died within 30 mins of withdrawal and 452 (87%) died within 60 mins. Using multiple logistic regression, significant predictors of death within 30 or 60 mins (typical cut-off times for organ donation) were identified and a predictor score was generated. Significant predictors included: age 1 month or younger; norepinephrine, epinephrine, or phenylephrine >0.2 µg/kg/min; extracorporeal membrane oxygenation; and positive end-expiratory pressure >10 cmH2O; and spontaneous ventilation. Possible scores for the 30-min predictor ranged from -17 to 67; a score ≤-9 predicted a 37% probability of death ≤ 30 mins, whereas a score ≥ 38 predicted an 85% probability of death within 30 mins. For the 60-min predictor, scores ranged from -21 to 38; score ≤-10 predicted a 59% probability of death within 60 mins and a score ≥ 16 predicted a 98% probability of death within 60 mins. This tool is a reasonable preliminary predictor for death within 30 or 60 mins after withdrawal of support in terminally ill or injured children and might assist in identifying potential pediatric candidates for donation after circulatory death, although prospective validation is required.

  16. DNA Repair Domain Modeling Can Predict Cell Death and Mutation Frequency for Wide Range Spectrum of Radiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viger, Louise; Ponomarev, Artem L.; Plante, Ianik; Evain, Trevor; Penninckx, Sebastien; Blattnig, Steve R.; Costes, Sylvain V.

    2017-01-01

    Exploration missions to Mars and other destinations raise many questions about the health of astronauts. The continuous exposure of astronauts to galactic cosmic rays is one of the main concerns for long-term missions. Cosmic ionizing radiations are composed of different ions of various charges and energies notably, highly charged energy (HZE) particles. The HZE particles have been shown to be more carcinogenic than low-LET radiation, suggesting the severity of chromosomal aberrations induced by HZE particles is one possible explanation. However, most mathematical models predicting cell death and mutation frequency are based on directly fitting various HZE dose response and are in essence empirical approaches. In this work, we assume a simple biological mechanism to model DNA repair and use it to simultaneously explain the low- and high-LET response using the exact same fitting parameters. Our work shows that the geometrical position of DNA repair along tracks of heavy ions are sufficient to explain why high-LET particles can induce more death and mutations. Our model is based on assuming DNA double strand breaks (DSBs) are repaired within repair domain, and that any DSBs located within the same repair domain cluster into one repair unit, facilitating chromosomal rearrangements and increasing the probability of cell death. We introduced this model in 2014 using simplified microdosimetry profiles to predict cell death. In this work, we collaborated with NASA Johnson Space Center to generate more accurate microdosimetry profiles derived by Monte Carlo techniques, taking into account track structure of HZE particles and simulating DSBs in realistic cell geometry. We simulated 224 data points (D, A, Z, E) with the BDSTRACKS model, leading to a large coverage of LET from 10 to 2,400 keV/µm. This model was used to generate theoretical RBE for various particles and energies for both cell death and mutation frequencies. The RBE LET dependence is in agreement with

  17. After Aylan Kurdi: How Tweeting About Death, Threat, and Harm Predict Increased Expressions of Solidarity With Refugees Over Time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Laura G E; McGarty, Craig; Thomas, Emma F

    2018-02-01

    Viral social media content has been heralded for its power to transform policy, but online responses are often derided as "slacktivism." This raises the questions of what drives viral communications and what is their effect on support for social change. We addressed these issues in relation to Twitter discussions about Aylan Kurdi, a child refugee who died en route to the European Union. We developed a longitudinal paradigm to analyze 41,253 tweets posted 1 week before the images of Aylan Kurdi emerged, the week they emerged, and 10 weeks afterward-at the time of the Paris terror attacks. Tweeting about death before the images emerged predicted tweeting about Aylan Kurdi, and this, sustained by discussion of harm and threat, predicted the expression of solidarity with refugees 10 weeks later. Results suggest that processes of normative conflict and communication can be intertwined in promoting support for social change.

  18. Factor Analysis of Predicting Cardiovascular Death in the Remote Period after Myocardial Revascularization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valentina V. Gul'chenko

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the present study was to analyze the impact of traditional and renal risk factors (RFs on the probability of cardiovascular death in CHD patients in the remote period after myocardial revascularization (MR. Materials and Methods: The present study included 90 CHD patients (80 men and 10 women; mean age 56.1±0.9 years with indications for MR. The prevalence of major cardiovascular RFs (old age, gender, duration of CHD, arterial hypertension, diabetes mellitus, another localization of atherosclerotic lesions, and the presence and duration of smoking and the main echocardiographic parameters and the parameters of renal function (MAU and GFR were assessed. Fatal cardiovascular outcomes were the only endpoint of the study. Results: Cardiovascular death (CVD occurred in 10/12.3% patients. The studied RFs, such as the patient's age, duration of smoking, and presence of angina with low tolerance to physical stress, had a significant impact on the probability of death in CHD patients. Risk of CVD (rCVD over a long-term period increases by 18.1% in patients with elevated levels of total cholesterol, by 16.2% in patients with stable angina pectoris class III, by 50.5% in patients with atherosclerotic lesions of lower limb and cerebral arteries, and by 69.3% in patients suffering from overweight. Left atrial size, LVPWT, and LVMI were also significant predictors of adverse cardiovascular prognosis. The increase in the number of coronary arteries with clinically significant stenosis, including subtotal narrowing of the vessel lumen, increases rCVD in the long-term period. The important role of a highly reliable level of glucose in the urine for the risk score was found. The presence of CKD stage 3 and the impaired GFR also significantly increased rCVD. Conclusion: Our data demonstrate a high medical and social importance of a comprehensive and integrated analysis not only of traditional RFs, but also of markers of renal dysfunction in risk

  19. Development and validation of QMortality risk prediction algorithm to estimate short term risk of death and assess frailty: cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hippisley-Cox, Julia; Coupland, Carol

    2017-09-20

    Objectives  To derive and validate a risk prediction equation to estimate the short term risk of death, and to develop a classification method for frailty based on risk of death and risk of unplanned hospital admission. Design  Prospective open cohort study. Participants  Routinely collected data from 1436 general practices contributing data to QResearch in England between 2012 and 2016. 1079 practices were used to develop the scores and a separate set of 357 practices to validate the scores. 1.47 million patients aged 65-100 years were in the derivation cohort and 0.50 million patients in the validation cohort. Methods  Cox proportional hazards models in the derivation cohort were used to derive separate risk equations in men and women for evaluation of the risk of death at one year. Risk factors considered were age, sex, ethnicity, deprivation, smoking status, alcohol intake, body mass index, medical conditions, specific drugs, social factors, and results of recent investigations. Measures of calibration and discrimination were determined in the validation cohort for men and women separately and for each age and ethnic group. The new mortality equation was used in conjunction with the existing QAdmissions equation (which predicts risk of unplanned hospital admission) to classify patients into frailty groups. Main outcome measure  The primary outcome was all cause mortality. Results  During follow-up 180 132 deaths were identified in the derivation cohort arising from 4.39 million person years of observation. The final model included terms for age, body mass index, Townsend score, ethnic group, smoking status, alcohol intake, unplanned hospital admissions in the past 12 months, atrial fibrillation, antipsychotics, cancer, asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, living in a care home, congestive heart failure, corticosteroids, cardiovascular disease, dementia, epilepsy, learning disability, leg ulcer, chronic liver disease or pancreatitis

  20. BMD PREDICTION OF DEATH IS ENCAPSULATED BY THE MORPHOLOGICAL ATHEROSCLEROSIS CALCIFICATION DISTRIBUTION (MACD) INDEX

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ganz, Melanie; Nielsen, Mads; Karsdal, Morten

    2009-01-01

    .3±0.3 years and of which CVD, cancer, and all cause deaths were recorded. The spine BMD and aortic calcification markers, AC24 and the recently proposed Morphological Atherosclerosis Calcification Distribution (MACD) index, were quantified from DXA scans and lateral X-rays respectively. The MACD...... mean differences was used. Marker correlations were analysed with Pearson's R2 and its significance of being different from zero. Significance levels were denoted as: *(p.... Conclusion: In general, the BMD decreased with age and calcification and may constitute an all cause risk factor independently from ATW. The AC24 showed a dependency on BMD for the CVD deceased, whereas MACD did not. This may be interpreted as the MACD already including the potential risk segregation of BMD...

  1. Lifestyle risk factors predict disability and death in healthy aging adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chakravarty, Eliza F; Hubert, Helen B; Krishnan, Eswar; Bruce, Bonnie B; Lingala, Vijaya B; Fries, James F

    2012-02-01

    Associations between modifiable health risk factors during middle age with disability and mortality in later life are critical to maximizing longevity while preserving function. Positive health effects of maintenance of normal weight, routine exercise, and nonsmoking are known for the short and intermediate term. We studied the effects of these risk factors into advanced age. A cohort of 2327 college alumnae aged 60 years or more was followed annually (1986-2005) by questionnaires addressing health risk factors, history, and Health Assessment Questionnaire disability. Mortality data were ascertained from the National Death Index. Low-, medium-, and high-risk groups were created on the basis of the number (0, 1, ≥2) of health risk factors (overweight, smoking, inactivity) at baseline. Disability and mortality for each group were estimated from unadjusted data and regression analyses. Multivariable survival analyses estimated time to disability or death. The medium- and high-risk groups had higher disability than the low-risk group throughout the study (P<.001). Low-risk subjects had onset of moderate disability delayed 8.3 years compared with high-risk subjects. Mortality rates were higher in the high-risk group (384 vs 247 per 10,000 person-years). Multivariable survival analyses showed the number of risk factors to be associated with cumulative disability and increased mortality. Seniors with fewer behavioral risk factors during middle age have lower disability and improved survival. These data document that the associations of lifestyle risk factors on health continue into the ninth decade. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Nonlinear joint models for individual dynamic prediction of risk of death using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo: application to metastatic prostate cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Solène Desmée

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Joint models of longitudinal and time-to-event data are increasingly used to perform individual dynamic prediction of a risk of event. However the difficulty to perform inference in nonlinear models and to calculate the distribution of individual parameters has long limited this approach to linear mixed-effect models for the longitudinal part. Here we use a Bayesian algorithm and a nonlinear joint model to calculate individual dynamic predictions. We apply this approach to predict the risk of death in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC patients with frequent Prostate-Specific Antigen (PSA measurements. Methods A joint model is built using a large population of 400 mCRPC patients where PSA kinetics is described by a biexponential function and the hazard function is a PSA-dependent function. Using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm implemented in Stan software and the estimated population parameters in this population as priors, the a posteriori distribution of the hazard function is computed for a new patient knowing his PSA measurements until a given landmark time. Time-dependent area under the ROC curve (AUC and Brier score are derived to assess discrimination and calibration of the model predictions, first on 200 simulated patients and then on 196 real patients that are not included to build the model. Results Satisfying coverage probabilities of Monte Carlo prediction intervals are obtained for longitudinal and hazard functions. Individual dynamic predictions provide good predictive performances for landmark times larger than 12 months and horizon time of up to 18 months for both simulated and real data. Conclusions As nonlinear joint models can characterize the kinetics of biomarkers and their link with a time-to-event, this approach could be useful to improve patient’s follow-up and the early detection of most at risk patients.

  3. Productive procrastination: academic procrastination style predicts academic and alcohol outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westgate, Erin C.; Wormington, Stephanie V.; Oleson, Kathryn C.; Lindgren, Kristen P.

    2017-01-01

    Productive procrastination replaces one adaptive behavior with another adaptive—albeit less important—behavior (e.g., organizing notes instead of studying for an exam). We identified adaptive and maladaptive procrastination styles associated with academic and alcohol outcomes in 1106 college undergraduates. Cluster analysis identified five academic procrastination styles—non-procrastinators, academic productive procrastinators, non-academic productive procrastinators, non-academic procrastinators, and classic procrastinators. Procrastination style differentially predicted alcohol-related problems, cravings, risk of alcohol use disorders, and GPA (all ps procrastination and academic productive procrastination were most adaptive overall; non-academic productive procrastination, non-academic procrastination, and classic procrastination were least adaptive. Productive procrastination differed from other procrastination strategies, and maladaptive procrastination styles may be a useful risk indicator for preventative and intervention efforts. PMID:28804158

  4. Productive procrastination: academic procrastination style predicts academic and alcohol outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westgate, Erin C; Wormington, Stephanie V; Oleson, Kathryn C; Lindgren, Kristen P

    2017-03-01

    Productive procrastination replaces one adaptive behavior with another adaptive-albeit less important-behavior (e.g., organizing notes instead of studying for an exam). We identified adaptive and maladaptive procrastination styles associated with academic and alcohol outcomes in 1106 college undergraduates. Cluster analysis identified five academic procrastination styles- non-procrastinators , academic productive procrastinators , non-academic productive procrastinators, non-academic procrastinators , and classic procrastinators . Procrastination style differentially predicted alcohol-related problems, cravings, risk of alcohol use disorders, and GPA (all ps procrastination and academic productive procrastination were most adaptive overall; non-academic productive procrastination, non-academic procrastination, and classic procrastination were least adaptive. Productive procrastination differed from other procrastination strategies, and maladaptive procrastination styles may be a useful risk indicator for preventative and intervention efforts.

  5. Gauge boson production at colliders – Predictions for precision studies

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2012-10-03

    Oct 3, 2012 ... journal of. October 2012 physics pp. 603–616. Gauge boson production at colliders – Predictions for precision studies. GIULIA ZANDERIGHI. University of Oxford and STFC, ... gauge bosons that one might look for smoking gun signatures at the LHC, both, because of the relatively clear experimental ...

  6. Predicting seasonal production of Eragrostis curvula. | N.G.E. ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The potential for mathematical prediction of the yield and quality of forage crops in fodder production planning is still untapped. This paper presents a multiple regression equation accounting for 88% of the variation that occurred in some 270 individual annual yields of Eragrostis curvula. The data originated from nine sites ...

  7. Image processing system performance prediction and product quality evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, E. K.; Hammill, H. B. (Principal Investigator)

    1976-01-01

    The author has identified the following significant results. A new technique for image processing system performance prediction and product quality evaluation was developed. It was entirely objective, quantitative, and general, and should prove useful in system design and quality control. The technique and its application to determination of quality control procedures for the Earth Resources Technology Satellite NASA Data Processing Facility are described.

  8. Prediction of sudden cardiac death in patients after acute myocardial infarction using T-wave alternans: a prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Hou; Pi-Hua, Fang; Yuan, Wu; Xiao-Feng, Li; Jun, Liu; Zhi, Li; Sen, Lei; Zhang, Shu

    2012-01-01

    We assessed the value of T-wave alternans (TWA) in prediction of sudden cardiac death (SCD) in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Consecutive patients (N = 227) were enrolled and were monitored with 24-hour ambulatory electrocardiogram within 1 to 15 days after AMI. T-wave alternans was identified by a modified moving average (MMA) algorithm computer software. The primary end point was SCD or lethal ventricular arrhythmia. We analyzed the hazard ratios (HRs) using the previously determined 47 μV TWA cutpoint. During the 16 ± 7-month follow-up, 10 (4.4%) patients died suddenly. T-wave alternans (≥47 μV) predicted SCD (HR, 17.78 [95% confidence interval, 3.75-84.31]; P wave alternans (≥47 μV) monitored at 1 to 15 days after AMI-predicted heightened risk of SCD. Prediction is improved when the frequency of TWA episodes (≥47 μV) is analyzed. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Assessment of Predictability of Philippine Rice Production with Climate Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koide, N.; Robertson, A. W.; Qian, J.; Ines, A. M.

    2010-12-01

    El Niño Southern Oscillation is the most influential factor on the Philippine climate and has measurable impacts on rice production. The previous studies suggested potential of climate information for prediction of the rice production. For example, Roberts et al. (2009) showed the statistically significant relationship of dry-season rice production in Luzon with Niño sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) averaged over the Niño 3.4 region (5°N-5°S, 120°-170°W) for July to September of the year before the harvest. However, the predictive skills of climate information for rice production have not been previously analyzed yet. Thus, we have conducted the assessment of predictive skills of one uncoupled general circulation models (GCMs) (ECHAM-CA) and two coupled GCMs (ECHAM-MOM, and ECHAM-CFS), as well as those of Niño 3.4 SSTAs and the volume of water warmer than 20°C (WWV) in the equatorial Pacific Ocean (5°N-5°S, 120°E to 80°W), based on cross validation with MLR, PCR, CCA. The result clearly shows high potential of these climate information as a tool for prediction of rice production with sufficient lead time for decision makers. Detailed results are as below. Dry Season Dry season rice production of the Philippines of both irrigation and rainfed systems significantly depend on rainfall in OND of the year before the harvest (same results were found by Roberts et al. (2009)). Two coupled GCMs have high predictive skills for dry-season rice production of the Philippines with six months lead time (six months before the beginning of the harvest). In addition, we found that WWV plus zonal wind anomalies over an equatorial west Pacific also has similar predictive skills to those of these coupled GCMs. On the other hand, the uncoupled GCM has high predictive skills only with a few months lead time similar to predictive skills of Niño 3.4 SSTAs. Predictive skills at regional levels are generally lower than that for the Philippines. Many regions in Mindanao

  10. Predictive Model of Energy Consumption in Beer Production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tiecheng Pu

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The predictive model of energy consumption is presented based on subtractive clustering and Adaptive-Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System (for short ANFIS in the beer production. Using the subtractive clustering on the historical data of energy consumption, the limit of artificial experience is conquered while confirming the number of fuzzy rules. The parameters of the fuzzy inference system are acquired by the structure of adaptive network and hybrid on-line learning algorithm. The method can predict and guide the energy consumption of the factual production process. The reducing consumption scheme is provided based on the actual situation of the enterprise. Finally, using concrete examples verified the feasibility of this method comparing with the Radial Basis Functions (for short RBF neural network predictive model.

  11. Oleuropein Prevents Neuronal Death, Mitigates Mitochondrial Superoxide Production and Modulates Autophagy in a Dopaminergic Cellular Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Imène Achour

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Parkinson’s disease (PD is a progressive neurodegenerative disorder, primarily affecting dopaminergic neurons in the substantia nigra. There is currently no cure for PD and present medications aim to alleviate clinical symptoms, thus prevention remains the ideal strategy to reduce the prevalence of this disease. The goal of this study was to investigate whether oleuropein (OLE, the major phenolic compound in olive derivatives, may prevent neuronal degeneration in a cellular dopaminergic model of PD, differentiated PC12 cells exposed to the potent parkinsonian toxin 6-hydroxydopamine (6-OHDA. We also investigated OLE’s ability to mitigate mitochondrial oxidative stress and modulate the autophagic flux. Our results obtained by measuring cytotoxicity and apoptotic events demonstrate that OLE significantly decreases neuronal death. OLE could also reduce mitochondrial production of reactive oxygen species resulting from blocking superoxide dismutase activity. Moreover, quantification of autophagic and acidic vesicles in the cytoplasm alongside expression of specific autophagic markers uncovered a regulatory role for OLE against autophagic flux impairment induced by bafilomycin A1. Altogether, our results define OLE as a neuroprotective, anti-oxidative and autophagy-regulating molecule, in a neuronal dopaminergic cellular model.

  12. Tissue Doppler echocardiography predicts acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, and cardiovascular death in the general population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mogelvang, Rasmus; Biering-Sørensen, Tor; Jensen, Jan Skov

    2015-01-01

    AIMS: To improve risk prediction of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality, we need sensitive markers of cardiac dysfunction; Echocardiographic Tissue Doppler Imaging (TDI) is feasible and harmless and may be ideal for this purpose. METHODS AND RESULTS: Within the community-based Copenhagen City...... with a normal conventional echocardiographic examination [per cm/s decrease: HR 1.18 (1.08-1.28), P general population, TDI identifies individuals with cardiac dysfunction and high risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality independently of traditional risk factors, even...

  13. Neural responses to unattended products predict later consumer choices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tusche, Anita; Bode, Stefan; Haynes, John-Dylan

    2010-06-09

    Imagine you are standing at a street with heavy traffic watching someone on the other side of the road. Do you think your brain is implicitly registering your willingness to buy any of the cars passing by outside your focus of attention? To address this question, we measured brain responses to consumer products (cars) in two experimental groups using functional magnetic resonance imaging. Participants in the first group (high attention) were instructed to closely attend to the products and to rate their attractiveness. Participants in the second group (low attention) were distracted from products and their attention was directed elsewhere. After scanning, participants were asked to state their willingness to buy each product. During the acquisition of neural data, participants were not aware that consumer choices regarding these cars would subsequently be required. Multivariate decoding was then applied to assess the choice-related predictive information encoded in the brain during product exposure in both conditions. Distributed activation patterns in the insula and the medial prefrontal cortex were found to reliably encode subsequent choices in both the high and the low attention group. Importantly, consumer choices could be predicted equally well in the low attention as in the high attention group. This suggests that neural evaluation of products and associated choice-related processing does not necessarily depend on attentional processing of available items. Overall, the present findings emphasize the potential of implicit, automatic processes in guiding even important and complex decisions.

  14. A three-protein biomarker panel assessed in diagnostic tissue predicts death from prostate cancer for men with localized disease

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Severi, Gianluca; FitzGerald, Liesel M; Muller, David C; Pedersen, John; Longano, Anthony; Southey, Melissa C; Hopper, John L; English, Dallas R; Giles, Graham G; Mills, John

    2014-01-01

    Only a minority of prostate cancers lead to death. Because no tissue biomarkers of aggressiveness other than Gleason score are available at diagnosis, many nonlethal cancers are treated aggressively. We evaluated whether a panel of biomarkers, associated with a range of disease outcomes in previous studies, could predict death from prostate cancer for men with localized disease. Using a case-only design, subjects were identified from three Australian epidemiological studies. Men who had died of their disease, “cases” (N = 83), were matched to “referents” (N = 232), those who had not died of prostate cancer, using incidence density sampling. Diagnostic tissue was retrieved to assess expression of AZGP1, MUC1, NKX3.1, p53, and PTEN by semiquantitative immunohistochemistry (IHC). Poisson regression was used to estimate mortality rate ratios (MRRs) adjusted for age, Gleason score, and stage and to estimate survival probabilities. Expression of MUC1 and p53 was associated with increased mortality (MRR 2.51, 95% CI 1.14–5.54, P = 0.02 and 3.08, 95% CI 1.41–6.95, P = 0.005, respectively), whereas AZGP1 expression was associated with decreased mortality (MRR 0.44, 95% CI 0.20–0.96, P = 0.04). Analyzing all markers under a combined model indicated that the three markers were independent predictors of prostate cancer death and survival. For men with localized disease at diagnosis, assessment of AZGP1, MUC1, and p53 expression in diagnostic tissue by IHC could potentially improve estimates of risk of dying from prostate cancer based only on Gleason score and clinical stage

  15. Genomes to natural products PRediction Informatics for Secondary Metabolomes (PRISM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skinnider, Michael A.; Dejong, Chris A.; Rees, Philip N.; Johnston, Chad W.; Li, Haoxin; Webster, Andrew L. H.; Wyatt, Morgan A.; Magarvey, Nathan A.

    2015-01-01

    Microbial natural products are an invaluable source of evolved bioactive small molecules and pharmaceutical agents. Next-generation and metagenomic sequencing indicates untapped genomic potential, yet high rediscovery rates of known metabolites increasingly frustrate conventional natural product screening programs. New methods to connect biosynthetic gene clusters to novel chemical scaffolds are therefore critical to enable the targeted discovery of genetically encoded natural products. Here, we present PRISM, a computational resource for the identification of biosynthetic gene clusters, prediction of genetically encoded nonribosomal peptides and type I and II polyketides, and bio- and cheminformatic dereplication of known natural products. PRISM implements novel algorithms which render it uniquely capable of predicting type II polyketides, deoxygenated sugars, and starter units, making it a comprehensive genome-guided chemical structure prediction engine. A library of 57 tailoring reactions is leveraged for combinatorial scaffold library generation when multiple potential substrates are consistent with biosynthetic logic. We compare the accuracy of PRISM to existing genomic analysis platforms. PRISM is an open-source, user-friendly web application available at http://magarveylab.ca/prism/. PMID:26442528

  16. Optimism and death: predicting the course and consequences of depression trajectories in response to heart attack.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galatzer-Levy, Isaac R; Bonanno, George A

    2014-12-01

    The course of depression in relation to myocardial infarction (MI), commonly known as heart attack, and the consequences for mortality are not well characterized. Further, optimism may predict both the effects of MI on depression as well as mortality secondary to MI. In the current study, we utilized a large population-based prospective sample of older adults (N=2,147) to identify heterogeneous trajectories of depression from 6 years prior to their first-reported MI to 4 years after. Findings indicated that individuals were at significantly increased risk for mortality when depression emerged after their first-reported MI, compared with resilient individuals who had no significant post-MI elevation in depression symptomatology. Individuals with chronic depression and those demonstrating pre-event depression followed by recovery after MI were not at increased risk. Further, optimism, measured before MI, prospectively differentiated all depressed individuals from participants who were resilient. © The Author(s) 2014.

  17. 'Death and axes': unexpected Ca²⁺ entry phenologs predict new anti-schistosomal agents.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John D Chan

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Schistosomiasis is a parasitic flatworm disease that infects 200 million people worldwide. The drug praziquantel (PZQ is the mainstay therapy but the target of this drug remains ambiguous. While PZQ paralyses and kills parasitic schistosomes, in free-living planarians PZQ caused an unusual axis duplication during regeneration to yield two-headed animals. Here, we show that PZQ activation of a neuronal Ca²⁺ channel modulates opposing dopaminergic and serotonergic pathways to regulate 'head' structure formation. Surprisingly, compounds with efficacy for either bioaminergic network in planarians also displayed antischistosomal activity, and reciprocally, agents first identified as antischistocidal compounds caused bipolar regeneration in the planarian bioassay. These divergent outcomes (death versus axis duplication result from the same Ca²⁺ entry mechanism, and comprise unexpected Ca²⁺ phenologs with meaningful predictive value. Surprisingly, basic research into axis patterning mechanisms provides an unexpected route for discovering novel antischistosomal agents.

  18. Abeta production as consequence of cellular death of a human neuroblastoma overexpressing APP.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Recuero, María; Serrano, Elena; Bullido, María J; Valdivieso, Fernando

    2004-07-16

    In human brain the Abeta peptide is produced mainly by neurons and the overexpression of amyloid precursor protein (APP) that involves an increase in Abeta secretion, has been observed in some areas of the Alzheimer's disease patients brain. We have generated two stably transfected human neuroblastoma lines which overexpress APP; both of them secreted Abeta and showed morphological changes and cell death with apoptotic program characteristics. Interestingly, coculture experiments with the untransfected human neuroblastoma cell line showed that the Abeta peptide was not responsible for the death in those cell lines; additionally, we indicate that upon cell death, Abeta peptide is secreted into cell medium.

  19. An Integrated and Interdisciplinary Model for Predicting the Risk of Injury and Death in Future Earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shapira, Stav; Novack, Lena; Bar-Dayan, Yaron; Aharonson-Daniel, Limor

    2016-01-01

    A comprehensive technique for earthquake-related casualty estimation remains an unmet challenge. This study aims to integrate risk factors related to characteristics of the exposed population and to the built environment in order to improve communities' preparedness and response capabilities and to mitigate future consequences. An innovative model was formulated based on a widely used loss estimation model (HAZUS) by integrating four human-related risk factors (age, gender, physical disability and socioeconomic status) that were identified through a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological data. The common effect measures of these factors were calculated and entered to the existing model's algorithm using logistic regression equations. Sensitivity analysis was performed by conducting a casualty estimation simulation in a high-vulnerability risk area in Israel. the integrated model outcomes indicated an increase in the total number of casualties compared with the prediction of the traditional model; with regard to specific injury levels an increase was demonstrated in the number of expected fatalities and in the severely and moderately injured, and a decrease was noted in the lightly injured. Urban areas with higher populations at risk rates were found more vulnerable in this regard. The proposed model offers a novel approach that allows quantification of the combined impact of human-related and structural factors on the results of earthquake casualty modelling. Investing efforts in reducing human vulnerability and increasing resilience prior to an occurrence of an earthquake could lead to a possible decrease in the expected number of casualties.

  20. QCD Predictions for Charm and Bottom Production at RHIC

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cacciari, Matteo; Nason, Paolo; Vogt, Ramona

    2005-09-01

    We make up-to-date QCD predictions for open charm and bottom production at RHIC in nucleon-nucleon collisions at {radical}S = 200 GeV. We also calculate the electron spectrum resulting from heavy flavor decays to allow direct comparison to the data. A rigorous benchmark, including the theoretical uncertainties, is established against which nuclear collision data can be compared to obtain evidence for nuclear effects.

  1. Theoretical predictions for charm and bottom production at the LHC

    CERN Document Server

    Cacciari, Matteo; Houdeau, Nicolas; Mangano, Michelangelo L; Nason, Paolo; Ridolfi, Giovanni

    2012-01-01

    We present predictions for a variety of single-inclusive observables that stem from the production of charm and bottom quark pairs at the 7 TeV LHC. They are obtained within the FONLL semi-analytical framework, and with two "Monte Carlo + NLO" approaches, MC@NLO and POWHEG. Results are given for final states and acceptance cuts that are as close as possible to those used by experimental collaborations and, where feasible, are compared to LHC data.

  2. An Integrated and Interdisciplinary Model for Predicting the Risk of Injury and Death in Future Earthquakes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stav Shapira

    Full Text Available A comprehensive technique for earthquake-related casualty estimation remains an unmet challenge. This study aims to integrate risk factors related to characteristics of the exposed population and to the built environment in order to improve communities' preparedness and response capabilities and to mitigate future consequences.An innovative model was formulated based on a widely used loss estimation model (HAZUS by integrating four human-related risk factors (age, gender, physical disability and socioeconomic status that were identified through a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological data. The common effect measures of these factors were calculated and entered to the existing model's algorithm using logistic regression equations. Sensitivity analysis was performed by conducting a casualty estimation simulation in a high-vulnerability risk area in Israel.the integrated model outcomes indicated an increase in the total number of casualties compared with the prediction of the traditional model; with regard to specific injury levels an increase was demonstrated in the number of expected fatalities and in the severely and moderately injured, and a decrease was noted in the lightly injured. Urban areas with higher populations at risk rates were found more vulnerable in this regard.The proposed model offers a novel approach that allows quantification of the combined impact of human-related and structural factors on the results of earthquake casualty modelling. Investing efforts in reducing human vulnerability and increasing resilience prior to an occurrence of an earthquake could lead to a possible decrease in the expected number of casualties.

  3. The political uses of astrology: predicting the illness and death of princes, kings and popes in the Italian Renaissance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azzolini, Monica

    2010-06-01

    This paper examines the production and circulation of astrological prognostications regarding the illness and death of kings, princes, and popes in the Italian Renaissance (ca. 1470-1630). The distribution and consumption of this type of astrological information was often closely linked to the specific political situation in which they were produced. Depending on the astrological techniques used (prorogations, interrogations, or annual revolutions), and the media in which they appeared (private letters or printed prognostica) these prognostications fulfilled different functions in the information economy of Renaissance Italy. Some were used to legitimise the rule of a political leader, others to do just the opposite. Astrological prorogations and interrogations were often used to plan military and political strategies in case of the illness or death of a political leader, while astrological prognostications were generally written to promote certain political leaders while undermining others. While certainly often partisan to this game, astrologers, for their part, worked within a very well established tradition that gave authority to their forecasts. This paper argues that, as indicators of deeper political tensions otherwise not always explicitly manifest, these prognostications are privileged sources of information providing a better understanding of the political history of the period.

  4. Predictive Value of Beat-to-Beat QT Variability Index across the Continuum of Left Ventricular Dysfunction: Competing Risks of Non-cardiac or Cardiovascular Death, and Sudden or Non-Sudden Cardiac Death

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tereshchenko, Larisa G.; Cygankiewicz, Iwona; McNitt, Scott; Vazquez, Rafael; Bayes-Genis, Antoni; Han, Lichy; Sur, Sanjoli; Couderc, Jean-Philippe; Berger, Ronald D.; de Luna, Antoni Bayes; Zareba, Wojciech

    2012-01-01

    Background The goal of this study was to determine the predictive value of beat-to-beat QT variability in heart failure (HF) patients across the continuum of left ventricular dysfunction. Methods and Results Beat-to-beat QT variability index (QTVI), heart rate variance (LogHRV), normalized QT variance (QTVN), and coherence between heart rate variability and QT variability have been measured at rest during sinus rhythm in 533 participants of the Muerte Subita en Insuficiencia Cardiaca (MUSIC) HF study (mean age 63.1±11.7; males 70.6%; LVEF >35% in 254 [48%]) and in 181 healthy participants from the Intercity Digital Electrocardiogram Alliance (IDEAL) database. During a median of 3.7 years of follow-up, 116 patients died, 52 from sudden cardiac death (SCD). In multivariate competing risk analyses, the highest QTVI quartile was associated with cardiovascular death [hazard ratio (HR) 1.67(95%CI 1.14-2.47), P=0.009] and in particular with non-sudden cardiac death [HR 2.91(1.69-5.01), P<0.001]. Elevated QTVI separated 97.5% of healthy individuals from subjects at risk for cardiovascular [HR 1.57(1.04-2.35), P=0.031], and non-sudden cardiac death in multivariate competing risk model [HR 2.58(1.13-3.78), P=0.001]. No interaction between QTVI and LVEF was found. QTVI predicted neither non-cardiac death (P=0.546) nor SCD (P=0.945). Decreased heart rate variability (HRV) rather than increased QT variability was the reason for increased QTVI in this study. Conclusions Increased QTVI due to depressed HRV predicts cardiovascular mortality and non-sudden cardiac death, but neither SCD nor excracardiac mortality in HF across the continuum of left ventricular dysfunction. Abnormally augmented QTVI separates 97.5% of healthy individuals from HF patients at risk. PMID:22730411

  5. Holographic QCD predictions for production and decay of pseudoscalar glueballs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brünner, Frederic; Rebhan, Anton

    2017-07-01

    The top-down holographic Witten-Sakai-Sugimoto model for low-energy QCD, augmented by finite quark masses, has recently been found to be able to reproduce the decay pattern of the scalar glueball candidate f0 (1710) on a quantitative level. In this Letter we show that this model predicts a narrow pseudoscalar glueball heavier than the scalar glueball and with a very restricted decay pattern involving η or η‧ mesons. Production should be either in pairs or in association with η (‧) mesons. We discuss the prospect of discovery in high-energy hadron collider experiments through central exclusive production by comparing with η‧ pair production.

  6. Holographic QCD predictions for production and decay of pseudoscalar glueballs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frederic Brünner

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The top–down holographic Witten–Sakai–Sugimoto model for low-energy QCD, augmented by finite quark masses, has recently been found to be able to reproduce the decay pattern of the scalar glueball candidate f0(1710 on a quantitative level. In this Letter we show that this model predicts a narrow pseudoscalar glueball heavier than the scalar glueball and with a very restricted decay pattern involving η or η′ mesons. Production should be either in pairs or in association with η(′ mesons. We discuss the prospect of discovery in high-energy hadron collider experiments through central exclusive production by comparing with η′ pair production.

  7. The natural product peiminine represses colorectal carcinoma tumor growth by inducing autophagic cell death

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lyu, Qing [School of Life Sciences, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084 (China); Key Lab in Healthy Science and Technology, Division of Life Science, Graduate School at Shenzhen, Tsinghua University, Shenzhen, 518055 (China); Tou, Fangfang [Jiangxi Provincial Key Lab of Oncology Translation Medicine, Jiangxi Cancer Hospital, Nanchang, 330029 (China); Su, Hong; Wu, Xiaoyong [First Affiliated Hospital, Guiyang College of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Guiyang, 550002 (China); Chen, Xinyi [Department of Hematology and Oncology, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, Beijing, 100029 (China); Zheng, Zhi, E-mail: zheng_sheva@hotmail.com [Jiangxi Provincial Key Lab of Oncology Translation Medicine, Jiangxi Cancer Hospital, Nanchang, 330029 (China)

    2015-06-19

    Autophagy is evolutionarily conservative in eukaryotic cells that engulf cellular long-lived proteins and organelles, and it degrades the contents through fusion with lysosomes, via which the cell acquires recycled building blocks for the synthesis of new molecules. In this study, we revealed that peiminine induces cell death and enhances autophagic flux in colorectal carcinoma HCT-116 cells. We determined that peiminine enhances the autophagic flux by repressing the phosphorylation of mTOR through inhibiting upstream signals. Knocking down ATG5 greatly reduced the peiminine-induced cell death in wild-type HCT-116 cells, while treating Bax/Bak-deficient cells with peiminine resulted in significant cell death. In summary, our discoveries demonstrated that peiminine represses colorectal carcinoma cell proliferation and cell growth by inducing autophagic cell death. - Highlights: • Peiminine induces autophagy and upregulates autophagic flux. • Peiminine represses colorectal carcinoma tumor growth. • Peiminine induces autophagic cell death. • Peiminine represses mTOR phosphorylation by influencing PI3K/Akt and AMPK pathway.

  8. The natural product peiminine represses colorectal carcinoma tumor growth by inducing autophagic cell death

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lyu, Qing; Tou, Fangfang; Su, Hong; Wu, Xiaoyong; Chen, Xinyi; Zheng, Zhi

    2015-01-01

    Autophagy is evolutionarily conservative in eukaryotic cells that engulf cellular long-lived proteins and organelles, and it degrades the contents through fusion with lysosomes, via which the cell acquires recycled building blocks for the synthesis of new molecules. In this study, we revealed that peiminine induces cell death and enhances autophagic flux in colorectal carcinoma HCT-116 cells. We determined that peiminine enhances the autophagic flux by repressing the phosphorylation of mTOR through inhibiting upstream signals. Knocking down ATG5 greatly reduced the peiminine-induced cell death in wild-type HCT-116 cells, while treating Bax/Bak-deficient cells with peiminine resulted in significant cell death. In summary, our discoveries demonstrated that peiminine represses colorectal carcinoma cell proliferation and cell growth by inducing autophagic cell death. - Highlights: • Peiminine induces autophagy and upregulates autophagic flux. • Peiminine represses colorectal carcinoma tumor growth. • Peiminine induces autophagic cell death. • Peiminine represses mTOR phosphorylation by influencing PI3K/Akt and AMPK pathway

  9. Hyaluronic Acid Levels Predict Risk of Hepatic Encephalopathy and Liver-Related Death in HIV/Viral Hepatitis Coinfected Patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Lars; Mocroft, Amanda; Soriano, Vincent; Rockstroh, Jürgen; Rauch, Andri; Karlsson, Anders; Knysz, Brygida; Pradier, Christian; Zilmer, Kai; Lundgren, Jens D.

    2013-01-01

    Background Whereas it is well established that various soluble biomarkers can predict level of liver fibrosis, their ability to predict liver-related clinical outcomes is less clearly established, in particular among HIV/viral hepatitis co-infected persons. We investigated plasma hyaluronic acid’s (HA) ability to predict risk of liver-related events (LRE; hepatic coma or liver-related death) in the EuroSIDA study. Methods Patients included were positive for anti-HCV and/or HBsAg with at least one available plasma sample. The earliest collected plasma sample was tested for HA (normal range 0–75 ng/mL) and levels were associated with risk of LRE. Change in HA per year of follow-up was estimated after measuring HA levels in latest sample before the LRE for those experiencing this outcome (cases) and in a random selection of one sixth of the remaining patients (controls). Results During a median of 8.2 years of follow-up, 84/1252 (6.7%) patients developed a LRE. Baseline median (IQR) HA in those without and with a LRE was 31.8 (17.2–62.6) and 221.6 ng/mL (74.9–611.3), respectively (p<0.0001). After adjustment, HA levels predicted risk of contracting a LRE; incidence rate ratios for HA levels 75–250 or ≥250 vs. <75 ng/mL were 5.22 (95% CI 2.86–9.26, p<0.0007) and 28.22 (95% CI 14.95–46.00, p<0.0001), respectively. Median HA levels increased substantially prior to developing a LRE (107.6 ng/mL, IQR 0.8 to 251.1), but remained stable for controls (1.0 ng/mL, IQR –5.1 to 8.2), (p<0.0001 comparing cases and controls), and greater increases predicted risk of a LRE in adjusted models (p<0.001). Conclusions An elevated level of plasma HA, particularly if the level further increases over time, substantially increases the risk of contracting LRE over the next five years. HA is an inexpensive, standardized and non-invasive supplement to other methods aimed at identifying HIV/viral hepatitis co-infected patients at risk of hepatic complications. PMID:23724041

  10. Comprehensive model for predicting elemental composition of coal pyrolysis products

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ricahrds, Andrew P. [Brigham Young Univ., Provo, UT (United States); Shutt, Tim [Brigham Young Univ., Provo, UT (United States); Fletcher, Thomas H. [Brigham Young Univ., Provo, UT (United States)

    2017-04-23

    Large-scale coal combustion simulations depend highly on the accuracy and utility of the physical submodels used to describe the various physical behaviors of the system. Coal combustion simulations depend on the particle physics to predict product compositions, temperatures, energy outputs, and other useful information. The focus of this paper is to improve the accuracy of devolatilization submodels, to be used in conjunction with other particle physics models. Many large simulations today rely on inaccurate assumptions about particle compositions, including that the volatiles that are released during pyrolysis are of the same elemental composition as the char particle. Another common assumption is that the char particle can be approximated by pure carbon. These assumptions will lead to inaccuracies in the overall simulation. There are many factors that influence pyrolysis product composition, including parent coal composition, pyrolysis conditions (including particle temperature history and heating rate), and others. All of these factors are incorporated into the correlations to predict the elemental composition of the major pyrolysis products, including coal tar, char, and light gases.

  11. Monte Carlo simulation techniques for predicting annual power production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cross, J.P.; Bulandr, P.J.

    1991-01-01

    As the owner and operator of a number of small to mid-sized hydroelectric sites, STS HydroPower has been faced with the need to accurately predict anticipated hydroelectric revenues over a period of years. The typical approach to this problem has been to look at each site from a mathematical deterministic perspective and evaluate the annual production from historic streamflows. Average annual production is simply taken to be the area under the flow duration curve defined by the operating and design characteristics of the selected turbines. Minimum annual production is taken to be a historic dry year scenario and maximum production is viewed as power generated under the most ideal of conditions. Such an approach creates two problems. First, in viewing the characteristics of a single site, it does not take into account the probability of such an event occurring. Second, in viewing all sites in a single organization's portfolio together, it does not reflect the varying flow conditions at the different sites. This paper attempts to address the first of these two concerns, that being the creation of a simulation model utilizing the Monte Carlo method at a single site. The result of the analysis is a picture of the production at the site that is both a better representation of anticipated conditions and defined probabilistically

  12. Cod Gadus morhua and climate change: processes, productivity and prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brander, Keith

    2010-01-01

    the causes. Investigation of cod Gadus morhua populations across the whole North Atlantic Ocean has shown large-scale patterns of change in productivity due to lower individual growth and condition, caused by large-scale climate forcing. If a population is being heavily exploited then a drop in productivity......Environmental factors act on individual fishes directly and indirectly. The direct effects on rates and behaviour can be studied experimentally and in the field, particularly with the advent of ever smarter tags for tracking fishes and their environment. Indirect effects due to changes in food......, predators, parasites and diseases are much more difficult to estimate and predict. Climate can affect all life-history stages through direct and indirect processes and although the consequences in terms of growth, survival and reproductive output can be monitored, it is often difficult to determine...

  13. Development of a radiation track structure clustering algorithm for the prediction of DNA DSB yields and radiation induced cell death in Eukaryotic cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglass, Michael; Bezak, Eva; Penfold, Scott

    2015-04-21

    The preliminary framework of a combined radiobiological model is developed and calibrated in the current work. The model simulates the production of individual cells forming a tumour, the spatial distribution of individual ionization events (using Geant4-DNA) and the stochastic biochemical repair of DNA double strand breaks (DSBs) leading to the prediction of survival or death of individual cells. In the current work, we expand upon a previously developed tumour generation and irradiation model to include a stochastic ionization damage clustering and DNA lesion repair model. The Geant4 code enabled the positions of each ionization event in the cells to be simulated and recorded for analysis. An algorithm was developed to cluster the ionization events in each cell into simple and complex double strand breaks. The two lesion kinetic (TLK) model was then adapted to predict DSB repair kinetics and the resultant cell survival curve. The parameters in the cell survival model were then calibrated using experimental cell survival data of V79 cells after low energy proton irradiation. A monolayer of V79 cells was simulated using the tumour generation code developed previously. The cells were then irradiated by protons with mean energies of 0.76 MeV and 1.9 MeV using a customized version of Geant4. By replicating the experimental parameters of a low energy proton irradiation experiment and calibrating the model with two sets of data, the model is now capable of predicting V79 cell survival after low energy (cell survival probability, the cell survival probability is calculated for each cell in the geometric tumour model developed in the current work. This model uses fundamental measurable microscopic quantities such as genome length rather than macroscopic radiobiological quantities such as alpha/beta ratios. This means that the model can be theoretically used under a wide range of conditions with a single set of input parameters once calibrated for a given cell line.

  14. Associations and predictions of readmission or death in acutely admitted older medical patients using self-reported frailty and functional measures. A Danish cohort study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andreasen, Jane; Aadahl, Mette; Sørensen, Erik Elgaard

    2018-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To assess whether frailty in acutely admitted older medical patients, assessed by a self-report questionnaire and evaluation of functional level at discharge, was associated with readmission or death within 6 months after discharge. A second objective was to assess the predictive...... measured. Associations were assessed using Cox regression with first unplanned readmission or death (all-causes) as the outcome. Prediction models including the three exposure variables and known risk factors were modelled using logistic regression and C-statistics. RESULTS: Of 1328 included patients, 50......% were readmitted or died within 6 months. When adjusted for gender and age, there was an 88% higher risk of readmission or death if the TFI scores were 8-13 points compared to 0-1 points (HR 1.88, CI 1.38;2.58). Likewise, higher TUG and lower GS scores were associated with higher risk of readmission...

  15. Right ventricular function assessed by 2D strain analysis predicts ventricular arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death in patients after acute myocardial infarction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Risum, Niels; Valeur, Nana; Søgaard, Peter

    2017-01-01

    Aims: Left ventricular function is a well-established predictor of malignant ventricular arrhythmias, but little is known about the importance of right ventricular (RV) function. The aim of this study was to investigate the importance of RV function for prediction of sudden cardiac death (SCD...

  16. Algorithm for predicting death among older adults in the home care setting: study protocol for the Risk Evaluation for Support: Predictions for Elder-life in the Community Tool (RESPECT).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, Amy T; Manuel, Douglas G; Taljaard, Monica; Chalifoux, Mathieu; Bennett, Carol; Costa, Andrew P; Bronskill, Susan; Kobewka, Daniel; Tanuseputro, Peter

    2016-12-01

    Older adults living in the community often have multiple, chronic conditions and functional impairments. A challenge for healthcare providers working in the community is the lack of a predictive tool that can be applied to the broad spectrum of mortality risks observed and may be used to inform care planning. To predict survival time for older adults in the home care setting. The final mortality risk algorithm will be implemented as a web-based calculator that can be used by older adults needing care and by their caregivers. Open cohort study using the Resident Assessment Instrument for Home Care (RAI-HC) data in Ontario, Canada, from 1 January 2007 to 31 December 2013. The derivation cohort will consist of ∼437 000 older adults who had an RAI-HC assessment between 1 January 2007 and 31 December 2012. A split sample validation cohort will include ∼122 000 older adults with an RAI-HC assessment between 1 January and 31 December 2013. Predicted survival from the time of an RAI-HC assessment. All deaths (n≈245 000) will be ascertained through linkage to a population-based registry that is maintained by the Ministry of Health in Ontario. Proportional hazards regression will be estimated after assessment of assumptions. Predictors will include sociodemographic factors, social support, health conditions, functional status, cognition, symptoms of decline and prior healthcare use. Model performance will be evaluated for 6-month and 12-month predicted risks, including measures of calibration (eg, calibration plots) and discrimination (eg, c-statistics). The final algorithm will use combined development and validation data. Research ethics approval has been granted by the Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre Review Board. Findings will be disseminated through presentations at conferences and in peer-reviewed journals. NCT02779309, Pre-results. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to

  17. [A cohort study on the predictive value of factors influencing cardio-cerebro vascular death among people over 40 years of age].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jian-min; Lu, Fang-hong; Jin, Shi-kuan; Sun, Shang-wen; Zhao, Ying-xin; Wang, Shu-jian; Zhou, Xiao-hong

    2007-02-01

    To explore the factors influencing cardio-cerebro vascular death events among people over 40 years of age in Shandong area, China. Baseline survey was carried out in 1991. A total number of 11,008 adults over 40 years old had been studied in Shandong province. Data on cardiocerebro death was collected. The correlation between influencing factors and cardio-cerebro vascular death events was analyzed by Cox regression model. Totally, 434 cardio-cerebro death events occurred among the 11,008 subjects during the 8-year follow-up study. Cardio-cerebro death events were related to systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, smoking, stroke history and age. Data from Cox regression analysis showed that the relative risk (RR) for cardio-cerebro vascular death events increased by 2.862 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.976-4.144] times for those people having stroke history. When systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure increased by every 10 mm Hg, the relative risk for cardio-cerebro vascular death events increased by 1.171 (95% CI: 1.033-1.328), 1.214 (95% CI: 1.044-1.413) respectively. it was found that a 1.239 (95% CI: 1.088-1.553) times higher in smokers than non-smokers on relative risk for cardio-cerebro vascular death events. However, the predictive values of the influencing factors for cardio-cerebro vascular death were different among population of different years of age. The relative risk for cardio-cerebro vascular death events increased by 1.366 (95% CI: 1.102-1.678) times for each 10 mm Hg increase of diastolic blood pressure in 40-59 years old population. However, the effect was taken place by systolic blood pressure in 60-74 years old population,with a relative risk of 1.201 (95% CI: 1.017-1.418) for each 10 mm Hg increase. Age seemed the only significant factor for cardio-cerebro vascular death events on population aged more than 75 years old. Conclusion The predictive values of the risk factors were different among age groups. The different

  18. Precise predictions for supersymmetric particle production at the LHC

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rothering, Marcel

    2016-07-01

    One of the main objectives of the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) is the search for physics beyond the Standard Model. Among the most promising candidates is the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM) which postulates the existence of further particles. Since none of these supersymmetric particles have been found yet, their mass limits have been shifted to high values. Hence, with the available energy of the LHC they would always be produced close to their production threshold. This leads to predictions for cross sections which are characterized by the presence of dominant logarithmic terms stemming from multiple soft gluon emission. These contributions spoil the convergence of the perturbative series and require a resummation to predict reliable results in these critical kinematical phase space regions. As the attention of experimental searches has been shifted towards electroweak supersymmetric particle production at the LHC, we update in this thesis our predictions for direct slepton pair production at proton-proton collision to next-to-leading order (NLO) matched to resummation at the next-to-leading logarithmic (NLL) accuracy. As a benchmark scenario we choose simplified models which have the advantage of only containing a few relevant physical parameters. They are now commonly adopted by the experimental collaborations for slepton and electroweak gaugino searches. We find that the scale dependence is drastically reduced by including NLL corrections, especially for large slepton masses. For increasing mass limits we hint towards the significance of next-to-next-to-leading logarithmic contributions to the cross section. By using modern Monte Carlo techniques we reanalyze ATLAS and CMS results for slepton searches for different assumptions about the compositions of the sleptons and their neutralino decay products. We observe similar mass limits for selectrons and smuons as both collaborations and find that masses for left-handed (right-handed) selectrons and

  19. Cod Gadus morhua and climate change: processes, productivity and prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brander, K M

    2010-11-01

    Environmental factors act on individual fishes directly and indirectly. The direct effects on rates and behaviour can be studied experimentally and in the field, particularly with the advent of ever smarter tags for tracking fishes and their environment. Indirect effects due to changes in food, predators, parasites and diseases are much more difficult to estimate and predict. Climate can affect all life-history stages through direct and indirect processes and although the consequences in terms of growth, survival and reproductive output can be monitored, it is often difficult to determine the causes. Investigation of cod Gadus morhua populations across the whole North Atlantic Ocean has shown large-scale patterns of change in productivity due to lower individual growth and condition, caused by large-scale climate forcing. If a population is being heavily exploited then a drop in productivity can push it into decline unless the level of fishing is reduced: the idea of a stable carrying capacity is a dangerous myth. Overexploitation can be avoided by keeping fishing mortality low and by monitoring and responding rapidly to changes in productivity. There are signs that this lesson has been learned and that G. morhua will continue to be a mainstay of the human diet. © 2010 The Author. Journal of Fish Biology © 2010 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

  20. Predictive Models for Photovoltaic Electricity Production in Hot Weather Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jabar H. Yousif

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The process of finding a correct forecast equation for photovoltaic electricity production from renewable sources is an important matter, since knowing the factors affecting the increase in the proportion of renewable energy production and reducing the cost of the product has economic and scientific benefits. This paper proposes a mathematical model for forecasting energy production in photovoltaic (PV panels based on a self-organizing feature map (SOFM model. The proposed model is compared with other models, including the multi-layer perceptron (MLP and support vector machine (SVM models. Moreover, a mathematical model based on a polynomial function for fitting the desired output is proposed. Different practical measurement methods are used to validate the findings of the proposed neural and mathematical models such as mean square error (MSE, mean absolute error (MAE, correlation (R, and coefficient of determination (R2. The proposed SOFM model achieved a final MSE of 0.0007 in the training phase and 0.0005 in the cross-validation phase. In contrast, the SVM model resulted in a small MSE value equal to 0.0058, while the MLP model achieved a final MSE of 0.026 with a correlation coefficient of 0.9989, which indicates a strong relationship between input and output variables. The proposed SOFM model closely fits the desired results based on the R2 value, which is equal to 0.9555. Finally, the comparison results of MAE for the three models show that the SOFM model achieved a best result of 0.36156, whereas the SVM and MLP models yielded 4.53761 and 3.63927, respectively. A small MAE value indicates that the output of the SOFM model closely fits the actual results and predicts the desired output.

  1. [Predicting value of 2014 European guidelines risk prediction model for sudden cardiac death (HCM Risk-SCD) in Chinese patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, W X; Liu, L W; Wang, J; Zuo, L; Yang, F; Kang, N; Lei, C H

    2017-12-24

    Objective: To evaluate the predicting value of the 2014 European Society of Cardiology (ESC) guidelines risk prediction model for sudden cardiac death (HCM Risk-SCD) in Chinese patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM), and to explore the predictors of adverse cardiovascular events in Chinese HCM patients. Methods: The study population consisted of a consecutive 207 HCM patients admitted in our center from October 2014 to October 2016. All patients were followed up to March 2017. The 5-year SCD probability of each patient was estimated using HCM Risk-SCD model based on electrocardiogram, echocardiography and cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) examination results. The primary, second, and composite endpoints were recorded. The primary endpoint included SCD and appropriate ICD therapy, identical to the HCM Risk-SCD endpoint. The second endpoint included acute myocardial infarction, hospitalization for heart failure, thrombus embolism and end-stage HCM. The composite endpoint was either the primary or the second endpoint. Patients were divided into the 3 categories according to 5-year SCD probability assessed by HCM Risk-SCD model: low risk grouprisk group ≥4% torisk group≥6%. Results: (1) Prevalence of endpoints: All 207 HCM patients completed the follow-up (350 (230, 547) days). During follow-up, 8 (3.86%) patients reached the primary endpoints (3 cases of SCD, 3 cases of survival after defibrillation, and 2 cases of appropriate ICD discharge); 21 (10.14%) patients reached the second endpoints (1 case of acute myocardial infarction, 16 cases of heart failure hospitalization, 2 cases of thromboembolism, and 2 cases of end-stage HCM). (2) Predicting value of HCM Risk-SCD model: Patients with primary endpoints had higher prevalence of syncope and intermediate-high risk of 5-year SCD, as compared to those without primary endpoints (both Pvalue of HCM Risk-SCD model: The low risk group included 122 patients (59%), the intermediate risk group 42 (20%), and the

  2. Benthic Light Availability Improves Predictions of Riverine Primary Production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirk, L.; Cohen, M. J.

    2017-12-01

    Light is a fundamental control on photosynthesis, and often the only control strongly correlated with gross primary production (GPP) in streams and rivers; yet it has received far less attention than nutrients. Because benthic light is difficult to measure in situ, surrogates such as open sky irradiance are often used. Several studies have now refined methods to quantify canopy and water column attenuation of open sky light in order to estimate the amount of light that actually reaches the benthos. Given the additional effort that measuring benthic light requires, we should ask if benthic light always improves our predictions of GPP compared to just open sky irradiance. We use long-term, high-resolution dissolved oxygen, turbidity, dissolved organic matter (fDOM), and irradiance data from streams and rivers in north-central Florida, US across gradients of size and color to build statistical models of benthic light that predict GPP. Preliminary results on a large, clear river show only modest model improvements over open sky irradiance, even in heavily canopied reaches with pulses of tannic water. However, in another spring-fed river with greater connectivity to adjacent wetlands - and hence larger, more frequent pulses of tannic water - the model improved dramatically with the inclusion of fDOM (model R2 improved from 0.28 to 0.68). River shade modeling efforts also suggest that knowing benthic light will greatly enhance our ability to predict GPP in narrower, forested streams flowing in particular directions. Our objective is to outline conditions where an assessment of benthic light conditions would be necessary for riverine metabolism studies or management strategies.

  3. PREDICTION OF MEAT PRODUCT QUALITY BY THE MATHEMATICAL PROGRAMMING METHODS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. B. Lisitsyn

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Use of the prediction technologies is one of the directions of the research work carried out both in Russia and abroad. Meat processing is accompanied by the complex physico-chemical, biochemical and mechanical processes. To predict the behavior of meat raw material during the technological processing, a complex of physico-technological and structural-mechanical indicators, which objectively reflects its quality, is used. Among these indicators are pH value, water binding and fat holding capacities, water activity, adhesiveness, viscosity, plasticity and so on. The paper demonstrates the influence of animal proteins (beef and pork on the physico-chemical and functional properties before and after thermal treatment of minced meat made from meat raw material with different content of the connective and fat tissues. On the basis of the experimental data, the model (stochastic dependence parameters linking the quantitative resultant and factor variables were obtained using the regression analysis, and the degree of the correlation with the experimental data was assessed. The maximum allowable levels of meat raw material replacement with animal proteins (beef and pork were established by the methods of mathematical programming. Use of the information technologies will significantly reduce the costs of the experimental search and substantiation of the optimal level of replacement of meat raw material with animal proteins (beef, pork, and will also allow establishing a relationship of product quality indicators with quantity and quality of minced meat ingredients.

  4. Pre-operative Carotid Plaque Echolucency Assessment has no Predictive Value for Long-Term Risk of Stroke or Cardiovascular Death in Patients Undergoing Carotid Endarterectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Waard, D; de Borst, G J; Bulbulia, R; Pan, H; Halliday, A

    2017-08-01

    In patients with carotid stenosis receiving medical treatment, carotid plaque echolucency has been thought to predict risk of future stroke and of other cardiovascular events. This study evaluated the prognostic value of pre-operative plaque echolucency for future stroke and cardiovascular death in patients undergoing carotid endarterectomy in the first Asymptomatic Carotid Surgery Trial (ACST-1). In ACST-1, 1832/3120 patients underwent carotid endarterectomy (CEA), of whom 894 had visual echolucency assessment according to the Gray-Weale classification. During follow-up patients were monitored both for peri-procedural (i.e. within 30 days) death, stroke, or MI, and for long-term risk of stroke or cardiovascular death. Unconditional maximum likelihood estimation was used to calculate odds ratios of peri-procedural risk and Kaplan-Meier statistics with log-rank test were used to compare cumulative long-term risks. Of 894 operated patients in whom echolucency was assessed, 458 plaques (51%) were rated as echolucent and peri-procedural risk of death/stroke/MI in these patients was non-significantly higher when compared with patients with non-echolucent plaques (OR 1.48 [95% CI 0.76-2.88], p = .241). No differences were found in the 10 year risk of any stroke (30/447 [11.6%] vs. 29/433 [11.0%], p = .900) or cardiovascular (non-stroke) death (85/447 [27.9%] vs. 93/433 [32.1%], p = .301). In ACST-1, carotid plaque echolucency assessment in patients undergoing CEA offered no predictive value with regard to peri-operative or long-term stroke risk or of cardiovascular (non-stroke) death. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  5. Long-term prediction of prostate cancer diagnosis and death using PSA and obesity related anthropometrics at early middle age: data from the malmö preventive project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assel, Melissa J; Gerdtsson, Axel; Thorek, Daniel L J; Carlsson, Sigrid V; Malm, Johan; Scardino, Peter T; Vickers, Andrew; Lilja, Hans; Ulmert, David

    2018-01-19

    To evaluate whether anthropometric parameters add to PSA measurements in middle-aged men for risk assessment of prostate cancer (PCa) diagnosis and death. After adjusting for PSA, both BMI and weight were significantly associated with an increased risk of PCa death with the odds of a death corresponding to a 10 kg/m2 or 10 kg increase being 1.58 (95% CI 1.10, 2.28; p = 0.013) and 1.14 (95% CI 1.02, 1.26; p = 0.016) times greater, respectively. AUCs did not meaningfully increase with the addition of weight or BMI to prediction models including PSA. In 1974 to 1986, 22,444 Swedish men aged 44 to 50 enrolled in Malmö Preventive Project, Sweden, and provided blood samples and anthropometric data. Rates of PSA screening in the cohort were very low. Documentation of PCa diagnosis and disease-specific death up to 2014 was retrieved through national registries. Among men with anthropometric measurements available at baseline, a total of 1692 men diagnosed with PCa were matched to 4190 controls, and 464 men who died of disease were matched to 1390 controls. Multivariable conditional logistic regression was used to determine whether diagnosis or death from PCa were associated with weight and body mass index (BMI) at adulthood after adjusting for PSA. Men with higher BMI and weight at early middle age have an increased risk of PCa diagnosis and death after adjusting for PSA. However, in a multi-variable numerical statistical model, BMI and weight do not importantly improve the predictive accuracy of PSA. Risk-stratification of screening should be based on PSA without reference to anthropometrics.

  6. Fall-induced deaths among older adults: nationwide statistics in Finland between 1971 and 2009 and prediction for the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korhonen, Niina; Kannus, Pekka; Niemi, Seppo; Palvanen, Mika; Parkkari, Jari

    2013-06-01

    Fall-related injuries and deaths of elderly people are a major public health concern. Using the Official Cause-of-Death Statistics of Finland we determined the current trends in the number and age-adjusted incidence (per 100,000 persons) of fall-induced deaths among older Finnish men and women by taking into account all persons 50 years of age or older who died because of a fall-induced injury between 1971 and 2009. Among elderly Finnish men, the number of deaths due to falls increased considerably between the years 1971 and 2009, from 162 to 627 (a 287% increase). The age-adjusted incidence also increased from 43.4 (per 100,000 persons) in 1971 to 57.9 in 2000, but stabilized thereafter (57.3 in 2009). Among elderly Finnish women, the number of fall-induced deaths increased till the beginning of the new millennium (from 279 in 1971 to 499 in 2000) but stabilized thereafter (506 in 2009), and, in sharp contrast to men, women's age-adjusted incidence of fall-induced deaths declined during the entire study period, the incidence being 77.2 in 1971 while only 35.3 in 2009. Between 1971 and 2009 the number of fall-induced deaths increased among elderly Finns. The changes were sex-specific so that men surpassed women in both the number and age-adjusted incidence of these fatal falls. Welcome observations were that men's age-adjusted incidence of fall-induced deaths started to stabilize during the new millennium and that in women this incidence continuously declined between 1971 and 2009. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Economic Growth, Productivity, and Public Education Funding: Is South Carolina a Death Spiral State?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Driscoll, Lisa G.; Knoeppel, Robert C.; Della Sala, Matthew R.; Watson, Jim R.

    2014-01-01

    As a result of the Great Recession of 2007-2009, most states experienced declines in employment, consumer spending, and economic productivity (Alm, Buschman, and Sjoquist 2011). In turn, these events led to historic declines in state tax revenues (Mikesell and Mullins 2010; Boyd and Dadayan 2009), resulting in major cuts in public spending. Local…

  8. Methods for using groundwater model predictions to guide hydrogeologic data collection, with application to the Death Valley regional groundwater flow system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tiedeman, C.R.; Hill, M.C.; D'Agnese, F. A.; Faunt, C.C.

    2003-01-01

    Calibrated models of groundwater systems can provide substantial information for guiding data collection. This work considers using such models to guide hydrogeologic data collection for improving model predictions by identifying model parameters that are most important to the predictions. Identification of these important parameters can help guide collection of field data about parameter values and associated flow system features and can lead to improved predictions. Methods for identifying parameters important to predictions include prediction scaled sensitivities (PSS), which account for uncertainty on individual parameters as well as prediction sensitivity to parameters, and a new "value of improved information" (VOII) method presented here, which includes the effects of parameter correlation in addition to individual parameter uncertainty and prediction sensitivity. In this work, the PSS and VOII methods are demonstrated and evaluated using a model of the Death Valley regional groundwater flow system. The predictions of interest are advective transport paths originating at sites of past underground nuclear testing. Results show that for two paths evaluated the most important parameters include a subset of five or six of the 23 defined model parameters. Some of the parameters identified as most important are associated with flow system attributes that do not lie in the immediate vicinity of the paths. Results also indicate that the PSS and VOII methods can identify different important parameters. Because the methods emphasize somewhat different criteria for parameter importance, it is suggested that parameters identified by both methods be carefully considered in subsequent data collection efforts aimed at improving model predictions.

  9. Potential of ASCAT Soil Moisture Product to Improve Runoff Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brocca, L.; Melone, F.; Moramarco, T.; Wagner, W.; Naeimi, V.; Bartalis, Z.; Hasenauer, S.

    2009-11-01

    The role and the importance of soil moisture for meteorological, agricultural and hydrological applications is widely known. Remote sensing offers the unique capability to monitor soil moisture over large areas (catchment scale) with, nowadays, a temporal resolution suitable for hydrological purposes. However, the accuracy of the remotely sensed soil moisture estimates have to be carefully checked. Therefore, the assessment of the effects of assimilating satellite- derived soil moisture estimates into rainfall-runoff models at different scales and over different regions represents an important scientific and operational issue. In this context, the soil wetness index (SWI) product derived from the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) sensor was tested in this study. The SWI was firstly compared with the soil moisture temporal pattern derived from a continuous rainfall-runoff model (MISDc). Then, by using a simple data assimilation technique, the SWI was assimilated into MISDc and the model performance on flood estimation was analyzed. Moreover, three synthetic experiments considering errors on rainfall, model parameters and initial soil wetness conditions were carried out. These experiments allowed to further investigate the SWI potential when uncertain conditions take place.The most significant flood events, which occurred in the period 2000-2009 for five subcatchments of the Upper Tiber River in central Italy, ranging in extension between 100 and 650 km2, were used as case studies. Results reveal that the SWI derived from the ASCAT sensor can be conveniently used to improve runoff prediction in the study area, mainly if the initial soil wetness conditions are unknown.

  10. Strain-dependent induction of neutrophil histamine production and cell death by Pseudomonas aeruginosa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Xiang; Zhang, Hong; Song, Yuanlin; Lynch, Susan V.; Lowell, Clifford A.; Wiener-Kronish, Jeanine P.; Caughey, George H.

    2012-01-01

    Airway diseases often feature persistent neutrophilic inflammation and infection. In cystic fibrosis bronchitis, for example, Pseudomonas aeruginosa is isolated frequently. Previously, this laboratory revealed that neutrophils become major sources of histamine in mice with tracheobronchitis caused by the wall-less bacterium Mycoplasma pulmonis. To test the hypothesis that more-broadly pathogenic P. aeruginosa (which expresses cell wall-associated LPS and novel toxins) has similar effects, we incubated naïve mouse neutrophils with two strains of P. aeruginosa. Strain PAO1 greatly increased neutrophil histamine content and secretion, whereas strain PA103 depressed histamine production by killing neutrophils. The histamine-stimulating capacity of PAO1, but not PA103-mediated toxicity, persisted in heat-killed organisms. In PAO1-infected mice, lung and neutrophil histamine content increased. However, PAO1 did not alter production by mast cells (classical histamine reservoirs), which also resisted PA103 toxicity. To explore mechanisms of neutrophil-selective induction, we measured changes in mRNA encoding histidine decarboxylase (rate-limiting for histamine synthesis), probed involvement of endotoxin-TLR pathways in Myd88-deficient neutrophils, and examined contributions of pyocyanin and exotoxins. Results revealed that PAO1 increased histamine production by up-regulating histidine decarboxylase mRNA via pathways largely independent of TLR, pyocyanin, and type III secretion system exotoxins. PAO1 also increased histidine decarboxylase mRNA in neutrophils purified from infected lung. Stimulation required direct contact with neutrophils and was blocked by phagocytosis inhibitor cytochalasin D. In summary, Pseudomonas-augmented histamine production by neutrophils is strain-dependent in vitro and likely mediated by up-regulation of histidine decarboxylase. These findings raise the possibility that Pseudomonas-stimulated neutrophils can enhance airway inflammation by

  11. CERT depletion predicts chemotherapy benefit and mediates cytotoxic and polyploid‐specific cancer cell death through autophagy induction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lee, Alvin J. X.; Roylance, Rebecca; Sander, Jil

    2012-01-01

    to the death of CIN cancer cells. Using an integrative functional genomics approach, we find that CERT‐specific multidrug sensitization is associated with enhanced autophagosome–lysosome flux, resulting from the expression of LAMP2 following CERT silencing in colorectal and HER2+ breast cancer cell lines. Live...... cell microscopy analysis revealed that CERT depletion induces LAMP2‐dependent death of polyploid cells following exit from mitosis in the presence of paclitaxel. We find that CERT is relatively over‐expressed in HER2+ breast cancer and CERT protein expression acts as an independent prognostic variable...... and predictor of outcome in adjuvant chemotherapy‐treated patients with primary breast cancer. These data suggest that the induction of LAMP2‐dependent autophagic flux through CERT targeting may provide a rational approach to enhance multidrug sensitization and potentiate the death of polyploid cells following...

  12. Diabetes mellitus, high BMI and low education level predict sudden cardiac death within 24 hours of incident myocardial infarction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersson, Jonas; Wennberg, Patrik; Lundblad, Dan; Escher, Stefan A; Jansson, Jan-Håkan

    2016-11-01

    More than half of cardiovascular mortality occurs outside the hospital, mainly due to consistently low survival rates from out-of-hospital cardiac arrest. This is a prospective, nested, case-control study derived from the Västerbotten Intervention Programme and the World Health Organization's Multinational Monitoring of Trends and Determinants in Cardiovascular Disease study in northern Sweden (1986-2006). To determine predictors for sudden cardiac death risk factors for cardiovascular disease were compared between incident myocardial infarction with sudden cardiac death (n = 363) and survivors of incident myocardial infarction (n = 1998) using multivariate logistic regression analysis. Diabetes had the strongest association with sudden cardiac death out of all evaluated risk factors (odds ratio (OR) 1.83, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.30-2.59), followed by low education (OR 1.55, 95% CI 1.19-2.01), high body mass index (OR 1.05, 95% CI 1.02-1.08) and male sex (OR 1.42, 95% CI 1.001-2.01). The pattern of risk factors for incident myocardial infarction is different among survivors and those who die within 24 hours. The risk factors that contribute the most to death within 24 hours are diabetes mellitus, high body mass index and low education level, and can be addressed at both the public health level and by general practitioners. © The European Society of Cardiology 2016.

  13. Pseudonormal and restrictive filling patterns predict left ventricular dilation and cardiac death after a first myocardial infarction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, J E; Søndergaard, E; Poulsen, S H

    2000-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: We sought to assess the prognostic value of left ventricular (LV) filling patterns, as determined by mitral E-wave deceleration time (DT) and color M-mode flow propagation velocity (Vp), on cardiac death and serial changes in LV volumes after a first myocardial infarction (MI). BACKGR...

  14. Games of life and death: antibiotic resistance and production through the lens of evolutionary game theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conlin, Peter L; Chandler, Josephine R; Kerr, Benjamin

    2014-10-01

    In this review, we demonstrate how game theory can be a useful first step in modeling and understanding interactions among bacteria that produce and resist antibiotics. We introduce the basic features of evolutionary game theory and explore model microbial systems that correspond to some classical games. Each game discussed defines a different category of social interaction with different resulting population dynamics (exclusion, coexistence, bistability, cycling). We then explore how the framework can be extended to incorporate some of the complexity of natural microbial communities. Overall, the game theoretical perspective helps to guide our expectations about the evolution of some forms of antibiotic resistance and production because it makes clear the precise nature of social interaction in this context. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Calcium-dependent nitric oxide production is involved in the cytoprotective properties of n-acetylcysteine in glycochenodeoxycholic acid-induced cell death in hepatocytes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez-Rubio, Sandra; Linares, Clara I.; Bello, Rosario I.; Gonzalez, Raul; Ferrin, Gustavo; Hidalgo, Ana B.; Munoz-Gomariz, Elisa; Rodriguez, Blanca A.; Barrera, Pilar; Ranchal, Isidora; Duran-Prado, Mario; Aguilar-Melero, Patricia; De la Mata, Manuel; Muntane, Jordi

    2010-01-01

    The intracellular oxidative stress has been involved in bile acid-induced cell death in hepatocytes. Nitric oxide (NO) exerts cytoprotective properties in glycochenodeoxycholic acid (GCDCA)-treated hepatocytes. The study evaluated the involvement of Ca 2+ on the regulation of NO synthase (NOS)-3 expression during N-acetylcysteine (NAC) cytoprotection against GCDCA-induced cell death in hepatocytes. The regulation of Ca 2+ pools (EGTA or BAPTA-AM) and NO (L-NAME or NO donor) production was assessed during NAC cytoprotection in GCDCA-treated HepG2 cells. The stimulation of Ca 2+ entrance was induced by A23187 in HepG2. Cell death, Ca 2+ mobilization, NOS-1, -2 and -3 expression, AP-1 activation, and NO production were evaluated. GCDCA reduced intracellular Ca 2+ concentration and NOS-3 expression, and enhanced cell death in HepG2. NO donor prevented, and L-NAME enhanced, GCDCA-induced cell death. The reduction of Ca 2+ entry by EGTA, but not its release from intracellular stores by BAPTA-AM, enhanced cell death in GCDCA-treated cells. The stimulation of Ca 2+ entrance by A23187 reduced cell death and enhanced NOS-3 expression in GCDCA-treated HepG2 cells. The cytoprotective properties of NAC were related to the recovery of intracellular Ca 2+ concentration, NOS-3 expression and NO production induced by GCDCA-treated HepG2 cells. The increase of NO production by Ca 2+ -dependent NOS-3 expression during NAC administration reduces cell death in GCDCA-treated hepatocytes.

  16. Productivity costs and years of potential life lost associated with five leading causes of death: Evidence from Iran (2006-2010)

    OpenAIRE

    Najafi, Farid; Karami-Matin, Behzad; Rezaei, Satar; Khosravi, Ardashir; Soofi, Moslem

    2016-01-01

    Background: Economic burden due to premature mortalities is significant both on health system and on the society as a whole. This study aimed to determine the productivity costs and years of potential life lost associated with five leading causes of death in Iran from 2006 to 2010. Methods: Data on mortality by sex and age-groups due to five main leading causes of death (myocardial infarction (MI), cerebral vascular diseases (CVD), transport accidents (TA), hypertensive heart disease (HHD) an...

  17. Drug Concentration Thresholds Predictive of Therapy Failure and Death in Children With Tuberculosis: Bread Crumb Trails in Random Forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swaminathan, Soumya; Pasipanodya, Jotam G; Ramachandran, Geetha; Hemanth Kumar, A K; Srivastava, Shashikant; Deshpande, Devyani; Nuermberger, Eric; Gumbo, Tawanda

    2016-11-01

     The role of drug concentrations in clinical outcomes in children with tuberculosis is unclear. Target concentrations for dose optimization are unknown.  Plasma drug concentrations measured in Indian children with tuberculosis were modeled using compartmental pharmacokinetic analyses. The children were followed until end of therapy to ascertain therapy failure or death. An ensemble of artificial intelligence algorithms, including random forests, was used to identify predictors of clinical outcome from among 30 clinical, laboratory, and pharmacokinetic variables.  Among the 143 children with known outcomes, there was high between-child variability of isoniazid, rifampin, and pyrazinamide concentrations: 110 (77%) completed therapy, 24 (17%) failed therapy, and 9 (6%) died. The main predictors of therapy failure or death were a pyrazinamide peak concentration children children with tuberculosis. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

  18. Value of Combining Left Atrial Diameter and Amino-terminal Pro-brain Natriuretic Peptide to the CHA2DS2-VASc Score for Predicting Stroke and Death in Patients with Sick Sinus Syndrome after Pacemaker Implantation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bin-Feng Mo

    2017-01-01

    Conclusions: CHA2DS2-VASc score is valuable for predicting stroke and death risk in patients with SSS after pacemaker implantation. The addition of LAD and NT-proBNP to the CHA2DS2-VASc score improved its predictive power for stroke and death, respectively, in this patient cohort. Future prospective studies are warranted to validate the benefit of adding LAD and NT-proBNP to the CHA2DS2-VASc score for predicting stroke and death risk in non-AF populations.

  19. Use of Proton-Pump Inhibitors Predicts Heart Failure and Death in Patients with Coronary Artery Disease.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana María Pello Lázaro

    Full Text Available Proton-pump inhibitors (PPIs seem to increase the incidence of cardiovascular events in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD, mainly in those using clopidogrel. We analysed the impact of PPIs on the prognosis of patients with stable CAD.We followed 706 patients with CAD. Primary outcome was the combination of secondary outcomes. Secondary outcomes were 1 acute ischaemic events (any acute coronary syndrome, stroke, or transient ischaemic attack and 2 heart failure (HF or death.Patients on PPIs were older [62.0 (53.0-73.0 vs. 58.0 (50.0-70.0 years; p = 0.003] and had a more frequent history of stroke (4.9% vs. 1.1%; p = 0.004 than those from the non-PPI group, and presented no differences in any other clinical variable, including cardiovascular risk factors, ejection fraction, and therapy with aspirin and clopidogrel. Follow-up was 2.2±0.99 years. Seventy-eight patients met the primary outcome, 53 developed acute ischaemic events, and 33 HF or death. PPI use was an independent predictor of the primary outcome [hazard ratio (HR = 2.281 (1.244-4.183; p = 0.008], along with hypertension, body-mass index, glomerular filtration rate, atrial fibrillation, and nitrate use. PPI use was also an independent predictor of HF/death [HR = 5.713 (1.628-20.043; p = 0.007], but not of acute ischaemic events. A propensity score showed similar results.In patients with CAD, PPI use is independently associated with an increased incidence of HF and death but not with a high rate of acute ischaemic events. Further studies are needed to confirm these findings.

  20. Cardiac troponin-I on diagnosis predicts early death and refractoriness in acquired thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura. Experience of the French Thrombotic Microangiopathies Reference Center.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benhamou, Y; Boelle, P-Y; Baudin, B; Ederhy, S; Gras, J; Galicier, L; Azoulay, E; Provôt, F; Maury, E; Pène, F; Mira, J-P; Wynckel, A; Presne, C; Poullin, P; Halimi, J-M; Delmas, Y; Kanouni, T; Seguin, A; Mousson, C; Servais, A; Bordessoule, D; Perez, P; Hamidou, M; Cohen, A; Veyradier, A; Coppo, P

    2015-02-01

    Cardiac involvement is a major cause of mortality in patients with thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura (TTP). However, diagnosis remains underestimated and delayed, owing to subclinical injuries. Cardiac troponin-I measurement (cTnI) on admission could improve the early diagnosis of cardiac involvement and have prognostic value. To assess the predictive value of cTnI in patients with TTP for death or refractoriness. The study involved a prospective cohort of adult TTP patients with acquired severe ADAMTS-13 deficiency ( 0.1 μg L(-1) ) was present in 78 patients (59%), of whom 46 (59%) had no clinical cardiac involvement. The main outcomes were death (25%) and refractoriness (17%). Age (P = 0.02) and cTnI level (P = 0.002) showed the greatest impact on survival. A cTnI level of > 0.25 μg L(-1) was the only independent factor in predicting death (odds ratio [OR] 2.87; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.13-7.22; P = 0.024) and/or refractoriness (OR 3.03; 95% CI 1.27-7.3; P = 0.01). A CTnI level of > 0.25 μg L(-1) at presentation in patients with TTP appears to be an independent factor associated with a three-fold increase in the risk of death or refractoriness. Therefore, cTnI level should be considered as a prognostic indicator in patients diagnosed with TTP. © 2014 International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis.

  1. Atmospheric Neutrino Predictions and the Influence of Hadron Production

    CERN Document Server

    Robbins, S

    2004-01-01

    The observation of neutrino flavour transformations of atmospheric neutrinos measured in Super-Kamiokande demands a theoretical explanation. The favoured candidate -- neutrino oscillations -- makes detailed predictions for the energy and path length dependence of the flavour transformations. For this reason, neutrino oscillations is a testable theory, which so far is in excellent agreement with the observations. The detailed comparison between the measured neutrino fluxes at Super-Kamiokande and the expected neutrino flux demands accurate predictions. Such predictions are performed with Monte-Carlo based simulations; the simulation of the Bartol group is used for the analyses in this thesis. Most recently the development of fully three-dimensional (3D) atmospheric neutrino calculations has been a significant theoretical improvement to the predicted neutrino fluxes. Older calculations employed the one-dimensional (1D) approximation; a comparison of these techniques is contained herewith. It is shown that above...

  2. PREDICTION OF MEAT PRODUCT QUALITY BY THE MATHEMATICAL PROGRAMMING METHODS

    OpenAIRE

    A. B. Lisitsyn; M. A. Nikitina; A. N. Zakharov; E. B. Sus; V. V. Nasonova; L. I. Lebedeva

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Use of the prediction technologies is one of the directions of the research work carried out both in Russia and abroad. Meat processing is accompanied by the complex physico-chemical, biochemical and mechanical processes. To predict the behavior of meat raw material during the technological processing, a complex of physico-technological and structural-mechanical indicators, which objectively reflects its quality, is used. Among these indicators are pH value, water binding and fat hol...

  3. Corosolic Acid Induces Non-Apoptotic Cell Death through Generation of Lipid Reactive Oxygen Species Production in Human Renal Carcinoma Caki Cells

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seon Min Woo

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Corosolic acid is one of the pentacyclic triterpenoids isolated from Lagerstroemia speciose and has been reported to exhibit anti-cancer and anti-proliferative activities in various cancer cells. In the present study, we investigated the molecular mechanisms of corosolic acid in cancer cell death. Corosolic acid induces a decrease of cell viability and an increase of cell cytotoxicity in human renal carcinoma Caki cells. Corosolic acid-induced cell death is not inhibited by apoptosis inhibitor (z-VAD-fmk, a pan-caspase inhibitor, necroptosis inhibitor (necrostatin-1, or ferroptosis inhibitors (ferrostatin-1 and deferoxamine (DFO. Furthermore, corosolic acid significantly induces reactive oxygen species (ROS levels, but antioxidants (N-acetyl-l-cysteine (NAC and trolox do not inhibit corosolic acid-induced cell death. Interestingly, corosolic acid induces lipid oxidation, and α-tocopherol markedly prevents corosolic acid-induced lipid peroxidation and cell death. Anti-chemotherapeutic effects of α-tocopherol are dependent on inhibition of lipid oxidation rather than inhibition of ROS production. In addition, corosolic acid induces non-apoptotic cell death in other renal cancer (ACHN and A498, breast cancer (MDA-MB231, and hepatocellular carcinoma (SK-Hep1 and Huh7 cells, and α-tocopherol markedly inhibits corosolic acid-induced cell death. Therefore, our results suggest that corosolic acid induces non-apoptotic cell death in cancer cells through the increase of lipid peroxidation.

  4. Trends in Deaths Involving Heroin and Synthetic Opioids Excluding Methadone, and Law Enforcement Drug Product Reports, by Census Region - United States, 2006-2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donnell, Julie K; Gladden, R Matthew; Seth, Puja

    2017-09-01

    Opioid overdose deaths quadrupled from 8,050 in 1999 to 33,091 in 2015 and accounted for 63% of drug overdose deaths in the United States in 2015. During 2010-2015, heroin overdose deaths quadrupled from 3,036 to 12,989 (1). Sharp increases in the supply of heroin and illicitly manufactured fentanyl (IMF) are likely contributing to increased deaths (2-6). CDC examined trends in unintentional and undetermined deaths involving heroin or synthetic opioids excluding methadone (i.e., synthetic opioids)* by the four U.S. Census regions during 2006-2015. Drug exhibits (i.e., drug products) obtained by law enforcement and reported to the Drug Enforcement Administration's (DEA's) National Forensic Laboratory Information System (NFLIS) that tested positive for heroin or fentanyl (i.e., drug reports) also were examined. All U.S. Census regions experienced substantial increases in deaths involving heroin from 2006 to 2015. Since 2010, the South and West experienced increases in heroin drug reports, whereas the Northeast and Midwest experienced steady increases during 2006-2015. † In the Northeast, Midwest, and South, deaths involving synthetic opioids and fentanyl drug reports increased considerably after 2013. These broad changes in the U.S. illicit drug market highlight the urgent need to track illicit drugs and enhance public health interventions targeting persons using or at high risk for using heroin or IMF.

  5. Nuclear Stat5a/b predicts early recurrence and prostate cancer-specific death in patients treated by radical prostatectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirtti, Tuomas; Leiby, Benjamin E; Abdulghani, Junaid; Aaltonen, Elina; Pavela, Miia; Mamtani, Anita; Alanen, Kalle; Egevad, Lars; Granfors, Torvald; Josefsson, Andreas; Stattin, Par; Bergh, Anders; Nevalainen, Marja T

    2013-03-01

    There is an urgent need for reliable markers to identify patients whose prostate cancer (PCa) will recur after initial therapy and progress to lethal disease. Gleason score (GS) is considered the most accurate predictive marker for disease-specific mortality after primary treatment of localized PCa. Most PCas cluster into groups of GS 6 and 7 with considerable variation in the disease recurrence and disease-specific death. In preclinical PCa models, Stat5a/b promotes PCa growth and progression. Stat5a/b is critical for PCa cell viability in vitro and for tumor growth in vivo and promotes metastatic dissemination of cancer in nude mice. Here, we analyzed the predictive value of high nuclear Stat5a/b protein levels in 2 cohorts of PCas: Material I (n = 562) PCas treated by radical prostatectomy (RP), and Material II (n = 106) PCas treated by deferred palliative therapy. In intermediate GS PCas treated by radical prostatectomy, high levels of nuclear Stat5a/b predicted both early recurrence (univariable analysis; P nuclear Stat5a/b predicted early disease recurrence in both univariable (P nuclear Stat5a/b expression was associated with early PCa-specific death by univariable Cox regression analysis (HR = 1.59; 95% CI = [1.04, 2.44]; P = .034). If confirmed in future prospective studies, nuclear Stat5a/b may become a useful independent predictive marker of recurrence of lethal PCa after RP for intermediate GS PCas. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Prediction of enthalpy and thermal conductivity of frozen meat and fish products from composition data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sman, van der R.G.M.

    2008-01-01

    In this paper we present models predicting thermophysical properties of frozen meat products purely using their composition data. Based on our previous model, predicting the water activity of (frozen) meat and fish products, while taking into account the non-ideality of the unfrozen solution, we can

  7. Predictive Score Model for Delayed Graft Function Based on Easily Available Variables before Kidney Donation after Cardiac Death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Chen-Guang; Tai, Qian-Hui; Han, Feng; Li, Yang; Tian, Xiao-Hui; Tian, Pu-Xun; Ding, Xiao-Ming; Pan, Xiao-Ming; Zheng, Jin; Xiang, He-Li; Xue, Wu-Jun

    2017-10-20

    How to evaluate the quality of donation after cardiac death (DCD) kidneys has become a critical problem in kidney transplantation in China. Hence, the aim of this study was to develop a simple donor risk score model to evaluate the quality of DCD kidneys before DCD. A total of 543 qualified kidneys were randomized in a 2:1 manner to create the development and validation cohorts. The donor variables in the development cohort were considered as candidate univariate predictors of delayed graft function (DGF). Multivariate logistic regression was then used to identify independent predictors of DGF with P donation and potentially useful for physicians to make optimal decisions about donor organ offers.

  8. Pathway-Specific Aggregate Biomarker Risk Score Is Associated With Burden of Coronary Artery Disease and Predicts Near-Term Risk of Myocardial Infarction and Death

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ghasemzedah, Nima; Hayek, Salim; Ko, Yi-An

    2017-01-01

    models adjusted for traditional risk factors. A high suPAR level ≥3.5 ng/mL was associated with all-cause death and myocardial infarction (hazard ratio, 1.83; 95% confidence interval, 1.43-2.35) after adjustment for risk factors, C-reactive protein, fibrin degradation product, and heat shock protein-70....... Addition of suPAR to the 3-BRS significantly improved the C statistic, integrated discrimination improvement, and net reclassification index for the primary outcome. A BRS of 1, 2, 3, or 4 was associated with a 1.81-, 2.59-, 6.17-, and 8.80-fold increase, respectively, in the risk of death and myocardial...

  9. IMMUNEPOTENT CRP induces cell cycle arrest and caspase-independent regulated cell death in HeLa cells through reactive oxygen species production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Torres, Ana Carolina; Reyes-Ruiz, Alejandra; Benítez-Londoño, Milena; Franco-Molina, Moises Armides; Rodríguez-Padilla, Cristina

    2018-01-03

    Regulated cell death (RCD) is a mechanism by which the cell activates its own machinery to self-destruct. RCD is important for the maintenance of tissue homeostasis and its deregulation is involved in diseases such as cervical cancer. IMMUNEPOTENT CRP (I-CRP) is a dialyzable bovine leukocyte extract that contains transfer factors and acts as an immunomodulator, and can be cytotoxic to cancer cell lines and reduce tumor burden in vivo. Although I-CRP has shown to improve or modulate immune response in inflammation, infectious diseases and cancer, its widespread use has been limited by the absence of conclusive data on the molecular mechanism of its action. In this study we analyzed the mechanism by which I-CRP induces cytotoxicity in HeLa cells. We assessed cell viability, cell death, cell cycle, nuclear morphology and DNA integrity, caspase dependence and activity, mitochondrial membrane potential, and reactive oxygen species production. I-CRP diminishes cell viability in HeLa cells through a RCD pathway and induces cell cycle arrest in the G2/M phase. We show that the I-CRP induces caspase activation but cell death induction is independent of caspases, as observed by the use of a pan-caspase inhibitor, which blocked caspase activity but not cell death. Moreover, we show that I-CRP induces DNA alterations, loss of mitochondrial membrane potential, and production of reactive-oxygen species. Finally, pretreatment with N-acetyl-L-cysteine (NAC), a ROS scavenger, prevented both ROS generation and cell death induced by I-CRP. Our data indicate that I-CRP treatment induced cell cycle arrest in G2/M phase, mitochondrial damage, and ROS-mediated caspase-independent cell death in HeLa cells. This work opens the way to the elucidation of a more detailed cell death pathway that could potentially work in conjunction with caspase-dependent cell death induced by classical chemotherapies.

  10. Predicting animal production on sourveld: a species-based approach

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Presents a simulation model which was developed to predict average daily gain in cattle and sheep grazing different species and swards of different species composition on Dohne Sourveld. The model was based upon measured ingestive and digestive characteristics of different grass species and incorporates an explicit ...

  11. Predictive ability of boiler production models | Ogundu | Animal ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The weekly body weight measurements of a growing strain of Ross broiler were used to compare the of ability of three mathematical models (the multi, linear, quadratic and Exponential) to predict 8 week body weight from early body measurements at weeks I, II, III, IV, V, VI and VII. The results suggest that the three models ...

  12. Development of a predictive system for SLM product quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, H. S.; Tran, N. H.; Nguyen, D. S.

    2017-08-01

    Recently, layer by layer manufacturing or additive manufacturing (AM) has been used in many application fields. Selective laser melting (SLM) is the most attractive method for building layer by layer from metallic powders. However, applications of AM in general and SLM in particular to industry have some barriers due to the quality of the manufactured parts which are affected by the high residual stresses and large deformation. SLM process is characterized by high heat source and fast solidification which lead to large thermal stress. The aim of this research is to develop a system for predicting the printed part quality during SLM process by simulation in consideration of the temperature distribution on the workpiece. For carrying out the system, model for predicting the temperature distribution was established. From this model, influences of process parameters to temperature distribution were analysed. The thermal model in consideration of relationship among printing parameters with temperature distribution is used for optimizing printing process parameters. Then, these results are used for calculating residual stress and predicting the workpiece deformation. The functionality of the proposed predictive system is proven through a case study on aluminium material manufactured on a MetalSys150 - SLM machine.

  13. Combinatorial DNA Damage Pairing Model Based on X-Ray-Induced Foci Predicts the Dose and LET Dependence of Cell Death in Human Breast Cells

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vadhavkar, Nikhil [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States); Pham, Christopher [University of Texas, Houston, TX (United States). MD Anderson Cancer Center; Georgescu, Walter [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Life Sciences Div.; Deschamps, Thomas [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Life Sciences Div.; Heuskin, Anne-Catherine [Univ. of Namur (Belgium). Namur Research inst. for Life Sciences (NARILIS), Research Center for the Physics of Matter and Radiation (PMR); Tang, Jonathan [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Life Sciences Div.; Costes, Sylvain V. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Life Sciences Div.

    2014-09-01

    In contrast to the classic view of static DNA double-strand breaks (DSBs) being repaired at the site of damage, we hypothesize that DSBs move and merge with each other over large distances (m). As X-ray dose increases, the probability of having DSB clusters increases as does the probability of misrepair and cell death. Experimental work characterizing the X-ray dose dependence of radiation-induced foci (RIF) in nonmalignant human mammary epithelial cells (MCF10A) is used here to validate a DSB clustering model. We then use the principles of the local effect model (LEM) to predict the yield of DSBs at the submicron level. Two mechanisms for DSB clustering, namely random coalescence of DSBs versus active movement of DSBs into repair domains are compared and tested. Simulations that best predicted both RIF dose dependence and cell survival after X-ray irradiation favored the repair domain hypothesis, suggesting the nucleus is divided into an array of regularly spaced repair domains of ~;;1.55 m sides. Applying the same approach to high-linear energy transfer (LET) ion tracks, we are able to predict experimental RIF/m along tracks with an overall relative error of 12percent, for LET ranging between 30 350 keV/m and for three different ions. Finally, cell death was predicted by assuming an exponential dependence on the total number of DSBs and of all possible combinations of paired DSBs within each simulated RIF. Relative biological effectiveness (RBE) predictions for cell survival of MCF10A exposed to high-LET showed an LET dependence that matches previous experimental results for similar cell types. Overall, this work suggests that microdosimetric properties of ion tracks at the submicron level are sufficient to explain both RIF data and survival curves for any LET, similarly to the LEM assumption. Conversely, high-LET death mechanism does not have to infer linear-quadratic dose formalism as done in the LEM. In addition, the size of repair domains derived in our model

  14. Improved predictions for J/psi and Upsilon production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Artoisenet, P.

    I discuss J/ψ and ϒ production at the Tevatron. Working in the framework of NRQCD, I review the current theoretical status. Motivated by the polarization puzzle at the Tevatron, I present the brand-new computation of higher-order αs corrections to the color-singlet production and discuss the impact of these corrections on the differential cross sections. I finally comment on the relative importance of the various transitions that feed quarkonium hadroproduction.

  15. PREDICTING NEW PRODUCT SALES: THE POST-LAUNCH PERFORMANCE OF 215 INNOVATORS

    OpenAIRE

    ALFRED KLEINKNECHT; GERBEN VAN DER PANNE

    2012-01-01

    New product sales are hard to predict. Our analysis of sales performance two years after market launch reveals that three groups of factors do not increase the accuracy of predicting new product sales: (1) A firm's general experience and experience with innovation; (2) High technological competences and strong knowledge networks; (3) Customer involvement in new product development. R&D managers should realise that experience with innovation as well as high technological competences, while pos...

  16. A Novel Risk Scoring System to Predict Cardiovascular Death in Patients With Acute Myocardial Infarction: CHA2DS2-VASc-CF Score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kundi, Harun; Kiziltunc, Emrullah; Korkmaz, Ahmet; Cicek, Gokhan; Ornek, Ender; Ileri, Mehmet

    2018-03-01

    The present study aimed to determine the long-term prognostic validity of the CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). In addition, we formulated a novel scoring system, the CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc-CF (which includes cigarette smoking and a family history of coronary artery disease as risk factors). This study included 4373 consecutive patients with AMI who presented to the emergency department of our hospital and underwent cardiac catheterization procedures between December 2009 and September 2016. Among these patients, 1427 were diagnosed with ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and 2946 were diagnosed with non-STEMI. The study included 4373 patients. The study population was divided into 2 groups according to the occurrence of cardiovascular death during the follow-up period. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc-CF score, CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score, major adverse cardiac events, current cigarette smoking, older age, hypertension, and family history of coronary artery disease were significantly higher, and that the left ventricular ejection fraction and glomerular filtration rate were significantly lower in the cardiovascular death (+) group. Using a cutoff score of >3 for the CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc-CF score, long-term cardiovascular death was predicted with a sensitivity of 78.4% and specificity of 76.4%. The CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc-CF score is suitable for use in all patients with AMI, regardless of the type of treatment, presence of atrial fibrillation, and type of AMI. This risk score, which is easy to calculate, provides important prognostic data. In the future, we think that interventional cardiologists will be able to use this novel scoring system to identify patients with a high risk of long-term cardiovascular death.

  17. Predicting death from tumour necrosis factor-alpha and interleukin-6 in 80-year-old people

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruunsgaard, H; Ladelund, S; Pedersen, A N

    2003-01-01

    % of the variability in IL-6 and effects of the two cytokines were independent of each other as well as of other traditional risk factors for death [smoking, blood pressure, physical exercise, total cholesterol, co-morbidity, body mass index (BMI) and intake of anti-inflammatory drugs]. These findings indicate......Ageing is associated with low-grade inflammation and markers such as IL-6 possess prognostic value. Tumour necrosis-alpha (TNF-alpha) initiates the inflammatory cascade and has been linked to several age-associated disorders. It remains, however, unknown if TNF-alpha is associated with mortality......-alpha and IL-6 on survival in the following 6 years. A total of 133 participants died during this follow-up period. TNF-alpha was associated with mortality in men, but not in women, whereas low-grade elevations in IL-6 were associated strongly with mortality in both sexes. TNF-alpha explained only 7...

  18. Predicting death from tumour necrosis factor-alpha and interleukin-6 in 80-year-old people

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruunsgaard, H; Ladelund, S; Pedersen, A N

    2003-01-01

    Ageing is associated with low-grade inflammation and markers such as IL-6 possess prognostic value. Tumour necrosis-alpha (TNF-alpha) initiates the inflammatory cascade and has been linked to several age-associated disorders. It remains, however, unknown if TNF-alpha is associated with mortality...... in old populations. The aim of the present study was to investigate if serum levels of TNF-alpha were associated with all-cause mortality independently of interleukin (IL)-6 in a prospective study of 333 relatively healthy 80-year-old people. A Cox regression model was used to explore effects of TNF......% of the variability in IL-6 and effects of the two cytokines were independent of each other as well as of other traditional risk factors for death [smoking, blood pressure, physical exercise, total cholesterol, co-morbidity, body mass index (BMI) and intake of anti-inflammatory drugs]. These findings indicate...

  19. Predicting death from tumour necrosis factor-alpha and interleukin-6 in 80-year-old people

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruunsgaard, H.; Ladelund, S.; Pedersen, Agnes Nadelmann

    2003-01-01

    Ageing is associated with low-grade inflammation and markers such as IL-6 possess prognostic value. Tumour necrosis-alpha (TNF-alpha ) initiates the inflammatory cascade and has been linked to several age-associated disorders. It remains, however, unknown if TNF-alpha is associated with mortality...... in old populations. The aim of the present study was to investigate if serum levels of TNF-alpha were associated with all-cause mortality independently of interleukin (IL)-6 in a prospective study of 333 relatively healthy 80-year-old people. A Cox regression model was used to explore effects of TNF......% of the variability in IL-6 and effects of the two cytokines were independent of each other as well as of other traditional risk factors for death [smoking, blood pressure, physical exercise, total cholesterol, co-morbidity, body mass index (BMI) and intake of anti-inflammatory drugs]. These findings indicate...

  20. Risk Factors Analysis and Death Prediction in Some Life-Threatening Ailments Using Chi-Square Case-Based Reasoning (χ2 CBR) Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adeniyi, D A; Wei, Z; Yang, Y

    2018-01-30

    A wealth of data are available within the health care system, however, effective analysis tools for exploring the hidden patterns in these datasets are lacking. To alleviate this limitation, this paper proposes a simple but promising hybrid predictive model by suitably combining the Chi-square distance measurement with case-based reasoning technique. The study presents the realization of an automated risk calculator and death prediction in some life-threatening ailments using Chi-square case-based reasoning (χ 2 CBR) model. The proposed predictive engine is capable of reducing runtime and speeds up execution process through the use of critical χ 2 distribution value. This work also showcases the development of a novel feature selection method referred to as frequent item based rule (FIBR) method. This FIBR method is used for selecting the best feature for the proposed χ 2 CBR model at the preprocessing stage of the predictive procedures. The implementation of the proposed risk calculator is achieved through the use of an in-house developed PHP program experimented with XAMP/Apache HTTP server as hosting server. The process of data acquisition and case-based development is implemented using the MySQL application. Performance comparison between our system, the NBY, the ED-KNN, the ANN, the SVM, the Random Forest and the traditional CBR techniques shows that the quality of predictions produced by our system outperformed the baseline methods studied. The result of our experiment shows that the precision rate and predictive quality of our system in most cases are equal to or greater than 70%. Our result also shows that the proposed system executes faster than the baseline methods studied. Therefore, the proposed risk calculator is capable of providing useful, consistent, faster, accurate and efficient risk level prediction to both the patients and the physicians at any time, online and on a real-time basis.

  1. Predicting the spread of sudden oak death in California (2010-2030): epidemic outcomes under no control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross K. Meentemeyer; Nik Cunniffe; Alex Cook; David M. Rizzo; Chris A. Gilligan

    2010-01-01

    Landscape- to regional-scale models of plant epidemics are direly needed to predict largescale impacts of disease and assess practicable options for control. While landscape heterogeneity is recognized as a major driver of disease dynamics, epidemiological models are rarely applied to realistic landscape conditions due to computational and data limitations. Here we...

  2. Prediction of thermo-physical properties of liquid formulated products

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mattei, Michele; Conte, Elisa; Kontogeorgis, Georgios

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this chapter is to give an overview of the models, methods and tools that may be used for the estimation of liquid formulated products. First a classification of the products is given and the thermo-physical properties needed to represent their functions are listed. For each...... property, a collection of the available models are presented according to the property type and the model type. It should be noted, however, that the property models considered or highlighted in this chapter are only examples and are not necessarily the best and most accurate for the corresponding property....

  3. Serum cortisol predicts death and critical disease independently of CRB-65 score in community-acquired pneumonia: a prospective observational cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kolditz Martin

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Several biomarkers and prognostic scores have been evaluated to predict prognosis in community-acquired pneumonia (CAP. Optimal risk stratification remains to be evaluated. The aim of this study was to evaluate serum cortisol as biomarker for the prediction of adverse outcomes independently of the CRB-65 score und inflammatory biomarkers in a large cohort of hospitalised patients with CAP. Methods 984 hospitalised CAP-patients were included. Serum cortisol was measured and its prognostic accuracy compared to the CRB-65 score, leucocyte count and C-reactive protein. Predefined endpoints were 30-day mortality and the combined endpoint critical pneumonia, defined as presence of death occurring during antibiotic treatment, mechanical ventilation, catecholamine treatment or ICU admission. Results 64 patients died (6.5% and 85 developed critical pneumonia (8.6%. Cortisol levels were significantly elevated in both adverse outcomes (p Conclusion Cortisol predicts mortality and critical disease in hospitalised CAP-patients independently of clinical scores and inflammatory biomarkers. It should be incorporated into trials assessing optimal combinations of clinical criteria and biomarkers to improve initial high risk prediction in CAP.

  4. empirical model for predicting rate of biogas production

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    users

    Rate of biogas production using cow manure as substrate was monitored in two laboratory scale batch reactors (13 liter and 108 liter capacities). Two empirical models based on the Gompertz and the modified logistic equations were used to fit the experimental data based on non-linear regression analysis using Solver tool ...

  5. Empirical Model for Predicting Rate of Biogas Production | Adamu ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Rate of biogas production using cow manure as substrate was monitored in two laboratory scale batch reactors (13 liter and 108 liter capacities). Two empirical models based on the Gompertz and the modified logistic equations were used to fit the experimental data based on non-linear regression analysis using Solver tool ...

  6. Predictions of semen production in ram using phenotypic traits by ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    USER

    2010-07-26

    Jul 26, 2010 ... Concentration of semen production is the most important fertility trait in ram and dimension of testis is a good criterion for ... semen concentration, 184 records were used for training a back propagation ANN system and 8 randomly chosen ... methods can be useful in using input and output variable with high ...

  7. The effects of microphysical parameterization on model predictions of sulfate production in clouds

    OpenAIRE

    HEGG, DEAN A.; LARSON, TIMOTHY V.

    2011-01-01

    Model predictions of sulfate production by an explicit cloud chemistry parameterization are compared with corresponding predictions by a bulk chemistry model. Under conditions of high SO2 and H2O2, the various model predictions are in reasonable agreement. For conditions of low H2O2, the explicit microphysical model predicts sulfate production as much as 30 times higher than the bulk model, though more commonly the difference is of the order of a factor of 3. The differences arise because of ...

  8. Productive knowledge of collocations may predict academic literacy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Van Dyk, Tobie

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The present study examines the relationship between productive knowledge of collocations and academic literacy among first year students at North-West University. Participants were administered a collocation test, the items of which were selected from Nation’s (2006 word frequency bands, i.e. the 2000-word, 3000-word, 5000-word bands; and the Academic Word List (Coxhead, 2000. The scores from the collocation test were compared to those from the Test of Academic Literacy Levels (version administered in 2012. The results of this study indicate that, overall, knowledge of collocations is significantly correlated with academic literacy, which is also observed at each of the frequency bands from which the items were selected. These results support Nizonkiza’s (2014 findings that a significant correlation between mastery of collocations of words from the Academic Word List and academic literacy exists; which is extended here to words from other frequency bands. They also confirm previous findings that productive knowledge of collocations increases alongside overall proficiency (cf. Gitsaki, 1999; Bonk, 2001; Eyckmans et al., 2004; Boers et al., 2006; Nizonkiza, 2011; among others. This study therefore concludes that growth in productive knowledge of collocations may entail growth in academic literacy; suggesting that productive use of collocations is linked to academic literacy to a considerable extent. In light of these findings, teaching strategies aimed to assist first year students meet academic demands posed by higher education and avenues to explore for further research are discussed. Especially, we suggest adopting a productive oriented approach to teaching collocations, which we believe may prove useful.

  9. Myocardial bridging does not predict sudden death in children with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy but is associated with more severe cardiac disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohiddin, S A; Begley, D; Shih, J; Fananapazir, L

    2000-12-01

    We sought to examine the association between systolic compression of sections of epicardial coronary vessels (myocardial bridging) with myocardial perfusion abnormalities and clinical outcome in children with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM). It has recently been suggested that myocardial bridging is an important cause of myocardial ischemia and sudden death in children with HCM. Angiograms from 57 children with HCM were reviewed for the presence of bridging (50% or more maximum systolic arterial compression). QT interval indices, echocardiographic and cardiac catheterization findings, treadmill exercise tests, exercise thallium scintigraphy, Holter monitoring and electrophysiologic study findings were compared in children with and without bridging. The findings were also related to the presence or absence of compression of septal branches of the left anterior descending artery (LAD). Bridging was present in 23 (40%) of the children. Multiple coronary arteries were involved in four children. Bridging involved the LAD in 16 of 28 (57%) affected vessels. Myocardial perfusion abnormalities were present in 14 of 30 (47%) children without bridging and in 17 of 22 (94%) children with bridging, p = 0.002. However, bridging was associated with more severe septal hypertrophy (19+/-8 mm vs. 28+/-8 mm, p children and was significantly associated with bridging, severity of LV hypertrophy and outflow obstruction. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that LV septal thickness and septal branch compression, and not bridging, were independent predictors of thallium perfusion abnormalities. There was a 90% power at 5% significance to detect an effect of bridging on thallium abnormalities at an odds ratio of 3. Bridging was also not associated with significantly greater symptoms, increased QT and QTc intervals and QTc dispersion, ventricular tachycardia on Holter or induced at EP study, or a worse prognosis. Bridging and compression of septal branches of the LAD are common in HCM

  10. Use of a finite element model of heat transport in the human eye to predict time of death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smart, Jimmy L; Kaliszan, Michal

    2013-01-01

    The goal of this work was to compare human temperature decay curves generated from execution of a COMSOL Multiphysics(®) finite element software model with that of experimental postmortem temperature decay curves. Experiments were performed in 10 human cadavers. The postmortem temperature was continuously measured in human eyeballs and rectums from c. 3 h up to 15 h postmortem. Model-generated curves reflected experimental curves for 10 cases with coefficients of determination ranging from 0.9448 to 0.9953. From modeling efforts, normalized temperature decay curves were generated to aid first responders to estimate time of death within the early postmortem period of 0-24 h. This proposed model has advantages over other models in that it is applied to the human eyeball, where temperature plateau effects are minimal to nonexistent. Nevertheless, the proposed model can be adjusted to compensate for any temperature plateau effects that do exist. It also can take account of antemortem hyperthermia conditions that are known to have occurred. The current model only applies to natural environmental conditions, with no forced convection, no direct sunlight, immersion in water, or other unusual conditions. © 2012 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  11. Web-based decision support system to predict risk level of long term rice production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukhlash, Imam; Maulidiyah, Ratna; Sutikno; Setiyono, Budi

    2017-09-01

    Appropriate decision making in risk management of rice production is very important in agricultural planning, especially for Indonesia which is an agricultural country. Good decision would be obtained if the supporting data required are satisfied and using appropriate methods. This study aims to develop a Decision Support System that can be used to predict the risk level of rice production in some districts which are central of rice production in East Java. Web-based decision support system is constructed so that the information can be easily accessed and understood. Components of the system are data management, model management, and user interface. This research uses regression models of OLS and Copula. OLS model used to predict rainfall while Copula model used to predict harvested area. Experimental results show that the models used are successfully predict the harvested area of rice production in some districts which are central of rice production in East Java at any given time based on the conditions and climate of a region. Furthermore, it can predict the amount of rice production with the level of risk. System generates prediction of production risk level in the long term for some districts that can be used as a decision support for the authorities.

  12. Comparison of the abilities of five scoring systems to predict short-term and medium-term death risks in patients with decompensated cirrhosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    FAN Xiaoli

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available ObjectiveTo compare the abilities of Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP score, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD, MELD combined with serum sodium concentration (MELD-Na, integrated MELD (iMELD, and MELD to SNa ratio (MESO to predict short-term and medium-term death risks in patients with decompensated cirrhosis at months 3 and 12. MethodsThe records of 269 patients with decompensated cirrhosis in Department of Gastroenterology, West China Hospital, Sichuan University from January 1 to December 31, 2014 were retrospectively analyzed. The CTP, MELD, MELD-Na, iMELD, and MESO scores were evaluated for these patients within 48 hours after admission and these patients were followed up for at least 12 months. The predictive abilities of these five scoring systems were evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC at months 3 and 12. Comparison of continuous data was conducted using t test (for data with normal distribution and homogeneity of variance or Mann-Whitney U test (for data with non-normal distribution, while comparison of categorical data was conducted usingχ2 test. Meanwhile, logistic regression analysis, Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis were performed. ResultsTwenty-five (9.29% and thirty-eight (1413% of all patients died within 3 months and 12 months, respectively. There were significant differences between the patients who died and survived within 12 months in total bilirubin, creatinine, urea, albumin, white blood cell count, prothrombin time, international normalized ratio, serum sodium, the presence or absence of hepatic encephalopathy on admission, degree of ascites, the CTP, MELD, MELD-Na, iMELD, and MESO scores on admission, history of hepatic encephalopathy, and treatments for these factors after discharge (all P<0.05. The multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that all five scores were independent prognostic factors for the patients (odds ratios

  13. Real Time Volcanic Cloud Products and Predictions for Aviation Alerts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krotkov, Nickolay A.; Habib, Shahid; da Silva, Arlindo; Hughes, Eric; Yang, Kai; Brentzel, Kelvin; Seftor, Colin; Li, Jason Y.; Schneider, David; Guffanti, Marianne; hide

    2014-01-01

    Volcanic eruptions can inject significant amounts of sulfur dioxide (SO2) and volcanic ash into the atmosphere, posing a substantial risk to aviation safety. Ingesting near-real time and Direct Readout satellite volcanic cloud data is vital for improving reliability of volcanic ash forecasts and mitigating the effects of volcanic eruptions on aviation and the economy. NASA volcanic products from the Ozone Monitoring Insrument (OMI) aboard the Aura satellite have been incorporated into Decision Support Systems of many operational agencies. With the Aura mission approaching its 10th anniversary, there is an urgent need to replace OMI data with those from the next generation operational NASA/NOAA Suomi National Polar Partnership (SNPP) satellite. The data provided from these instruments are being incorporated into forecasting models to provide quantitative ash forecasts for air traffic management. This study demonstrates the feasibility of the volcanic near-real time and Direct Readout data products from the new Ozone Monitoring and Profiling Suite (OMPS) ultraviolet sensor onboard SNPP for monitoring and forecasting volcanic clouds. The transition of NASA data production to our operational partners is outlined. Satellite observations are used to constrain volcanic cloud simulations and improve estimates of eruption parameters, resulting in more accurate forecasts. This is demonstrated for the 2012 eruption of Copahue. Volcanic eruptions are modeled using the Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 5 (GEOS-5) and the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol and Radiation Transport (GOCART) model. A hindcast of the disruptive eruption from Iceland's Eyjafjallajokull is used to estimate aviation re-routing costs using Metron Aviation's ATM Tools.

  14. Initial prediction of dust production in pebble bed reactors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Rostamian

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the computational simulation of contact zones between pebbles in a pebble bed reactor. In this type of reactor, the potential for graphite dust generation from frictional contact of graphite pebbles and the subsequent transport of dust and fission products can cause significant safety issues at very high temperatures around 900 °C in HTRs. The present simulation is an initial attempt to quantify the amount of nuclear grade graphite dust produced within a very high temperature reactor.

  15. Moderate extracellular acidification inhibits capsaicin-induced cell death through regulating calcium mobilization, NF-κB translocation and ROS production in synoviocytes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu, Fen; Yang, Shuang; Zhao, Dan; Zhu, Shuyan; Wang, Yuxiang; Li, Junying

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► Moderate extracellular acidification regulates intracellular Ca 2+ mobilization. ► Moderate acidification activates NF-κB nuclear translocation in synoviocytes. ► Moderate acidification depresses the ROS production induced by capsaicin. ► Moderate acidification inhibits capsaicin-caused synoviocyte death. -- Abstract: We previously show the expression of transient receptor potential vanilloid 1 (TRPV1) in primary synoviocytes from collagen-induced arthritis (CIA) rats. Capsaicin and lowered extracellular pH from 7.4 to 5.5 induce cell death through TRPV1-mediated Ca 2+ entry and reactive oxygen species (ROS) production. However, under the pathological condition in rheumatoid arthritis, the synovial fluid is acidified to a moderate level (about pH 6.8). In the present study, we examined the effects of pH 6.8 on the TRPV1-mediated cell death. Our finding is different or even opposite from what was observed at pH 5.5. We found that the moderate extracellular acidification (from pH 7.4 to 6.8) inhibited the capsaicin-induced Ca 2+ entry through attenuating the activity of TRPV1. In the mean time, it triggered a phospholipse C (PLC)-related Ca 2+ release from intracellular stores. The nuclear translocation of NF-κB was found at pH 6.8, and this also depends on PLC activation. Moreover, the capsaicin-evoked massive ROS production and cell death were depressed at pH 6.8, both of which are dependent on the activation of PLC and NF-κB. Taken together, these results suggested that the moderate extracellular acidification inhibited the capsaicin-induced synoviocyte death through regulating Ca 2+ mobilization, activating NF-κB nuclear translocation and depressing ROS production.

  16. Moderate extracellular acidification inhibits capsaicin-induced cell death through regulating calcium mobilization, NF-{kappa}B translocation and ROS production in synoviocytes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hu, Fen; Yang, Shuang; Zhao, Dan; Zhu, Shuyan; Wang, Yuxiang [Department of Biophysics, School of Physics and Key Laboratory of Bioactive Materials of Education Ministry, Nankai University, Tianjin 300071 (China); Li, Junying, E-mail: jyli04@nankai.edu.cn [Department of Biophysics, School of Physics and Key Laboratory of Bioactive Materials of Education Ministry, Nankai University, Tianjin 300071 (China)

    2012-07-20

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Moderate extracellular acidification regulates intracellular Ca{sup 2+} mobilization. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Moderate acidification activates NF-{kappa}B nuclear translocation in synoviocytes. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Moderate acidification depresses the ROS production induced by capsaicin. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Moderate acidification inhibits capsaicin-caused synoviocyte death. -- Abstract: We previously show the expression of transient receptor potential vanilloid 1 (TRPV1) in primary synoviocytes from collagen-induced arthritis (CIA) rats. Capsaicin and lowered extracellular pH from 7.4 to 5.5 induce cell death through TRPV1-mediated Ca{sup 2+} entry and reactive oxygen species (ROS) production. However, under the pathological condition in rheumatoid arthritis, the synovial fluid is acidified to a moderate level (about pH 6.8). In the present study, we examined the effects of pH 6.8 on the TRPV1-mediated cell death. Our finding is different or even opposite from what was observed at pH 5.5. We found that the moderate extracellular acidification (from pH 7.4 to 6.8) inhibited the capsaicin-induced Ca{sup 2+} entry through attenuating the activity of TRPV1. In the mean time, it triggered a phospholipse C (PLC)-related Ca{sup 2+} release from intracellular stores. The nuclear translocation of NF-{kappa}B was found at pH 6.8, and this also depends on PLC activation. Moreover, the capsaicin-evoked massive ROS production and cell death were depressed at pH 6.8, both of which are dependent on the activation of PLC and NF-{kappa}B. Taken together, these results suggested that the moderate extracellular acidification inhibited the capsaicin-induced synoviocyte death through regulating Ca{sup 2+} mobilization, activating NF-{kappa}B nuclear translocation and depressing ROS production.

  17. Prediction of Hydrolysis Products of Organic Chemicals under Environmental pH Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheminformatics-based software tools can predict the molecular structure of transformation products using a library of transformation reaction schemes. This paper presents the development of such a library for abiotic hydrolysis of organic chemicals under environmentally relevant...

  18. Evaluation of Aqua crop Model to Predict Crop Water Productivity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohd Noor Hidayat Adenan; Faiz Ahmad; Shyful Azizi Abdul Rahman; Abdul Rahim Harun; Khairuddin Abdul Rahim

    2015-01-01

    Water and nutrient are critical inputs for crop production, especially in meeting challenges from increasing fertilizer cost and irregular water availability associated with climate change. The Land and Water Division of Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has developed Aqua Crop, an integrated application software to simulate the interactions between plant, water and soil. Field management and irrigation management are the factors that need to be considered since it affects the interactions. Four critical components are needed in the Aqua Crop model, viz. climate, crop, field management and soil conditions. In our case study, climate data from rice field in Utan Aji, Kangar, Perlis was applied to run a simulation by using AquaCrop model. The rice crop was also assessed against deficit irrigation schedules and we found that use of water at optimum level increased rice yield. Results derived from the use of the model corresponded conventional assessment. This model can be adopted to help farmers in Malaysia in planning crop and field management to increase the crop productivity, especially in areas where the water is limited. (author)

  19. PRISM 3: expanded prediction of natural product chemical structures from microbial genomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skinnider, Michael A; Merwin, Nishanth J; Johnston, Chad W; Magarvey, Nathan A

    2017-07-03

    Microbial natural products represent a rich resource of pharmaceutically and industrially important compounds. Genome sequencing has revealed that the majority of natural products remain undiscovered, and computational methods to connect biosynthetic gene clusters to their corresponding natural products therefore have the potential to revitalize natural product discovery. Previously, we described PRediction Informatics for Secondary Metabolomes (PRISM), a combinatorial approach to chemical structure prediction for genetically encoded nonribosomal peptides and type I and II polyketides. Here, we present a ground-up rewrite of the PRISM structure prediction algorithm to derive prediction of natural products arising from non-modular biosynthetic paradigms. Within this new version, PRISM 3, natural product scaffolds are modeled as chemical graphs, permitting structure prediction for aminocoumarins, antimetabolites, bisindoles and phosphonate natural products, and building upon the addition of ribosomally synthesized and post-translationally modified peptides. Further, with the addition of cluster detection for 11 new cluster types, PRISM 3 expands to detect 22 distinct natural product cluster types. Other major modifications to PRISM include improved sequence input and ORF detection, user-friendliness and output. Distribution of PRISM 3 over a 300-core server grid improves the speed and capacity of the web application. PRISM 3 is available at http://magarveylab.ca/prism/. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

  20. Prediction of Late Death or Disability at Age 5 Years Using a Count of 3 Neonatal Morbidities in Very Low Birth Weight Infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Barbara; Roberts, Robin S; Davis, Peter G; Doyle, Lex W; Asztalos, Elizabeth V; Opie, Gillian; Bairam, Aida; Solimano, Alfonso; Arnon, Shmuel; Sauve, Reginald S

    2015-11-01

    To evaluate bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD), serious brain injury, and severe retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) as predictors of poor long-term outcome in very low birth weight infants. We examined the associations between counts of the 3 morbidities and long-term outcomes in 1514 of 1791 (85%) infants with birth weights of 500-1250 g who were enrolled in the Caffeine for Apnea of Prematurity trial from October 1999, to October 2004, had complete morbidity data, and were alive at 36 weeks postmenstrual age (PMA). BPD was defined as use of supplemental oxygen at 36 weeks PMA. Serious brain injury on cranial ultrasound included grade 3 and 4 hemorrhage, cystic periventricular leucomalacia, porencephalic cysts, or ventriculomegaly of any cause. Poor long-term outcome was death after 36 weeks PMA or survival to 5 years with 1 or more of the following disabilities: motor impairment, cognitive impairment, behavior problems, poor general health, deafness, and blindness. BPD, serious brain injury, and severe ROP occurred in 43%, 13%, and 6% of the infants, respectively. Each of the 3 morbidities was similarly and independently correlated with poor 5-year outcome. Rates of death or disability (95% CI) in children with none, any 1, any 2, and all 3 morbidities were 11.2% (9.0%-13.7%), 22.9% (19.6%-26.5%), 43.9% (35.5%-52.6%), and 61.5% (40.6%-79.8%), respectively. In very low birth weight infants who survive to 36 weeks PMA, a count of BPD, serious brain injury, and severe ROP predicts the risk of a late death or survival with disability at 5 years. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Predicting the initial freezing point and water activity of meat products from composition data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sman, van der R.G.M.; Boer, E.P.J.

    2005-01-01

    In this paper we predict the water activity and initial freezing point of food products (meat and fish) based on their composition. The prediction is based on thermodynamics (the Clausius-Clapeyron equation, the Ross equation and an approximation of the Pitzer equation). Furthermore, we have taken

  2. Pulse wave velocity, pulse pressure and number of carotid or femoral plaques improve prediction of cardiovascular death in a population at low risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bérard, E; Bongard, V; Ruidavets, J-B; Amar, J; Ferrières, J

    2013-09-01

    The assessment of cardiovascular risk is uniformly recommended as a decision-support for therapies aimed at preventing cardiovascular diseases. Our objective was to determine the prognostic significance of vascular markers in apparently healthy subjects. Analyses were based on the Third Toulouse MONICA Survey (1995-1997) carried out in participants aged 35-64, from the general population of South-western France. Causes of death were obtained 14 years after inclusion. There were 1132 participants (51% men). Over the 14-year follow-up period, 61 deaths were recorded, 20% due to a cardiovascular cause. Adding pulse wave velocity (PWV) to Framingham Risk Score (FRS) improved the accuracy of the risk prediction model. The C-statistic increased from 0.76 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.64-0.89) (FRS alone) to 0.79 (95% CI: 0.64-0.95) (FRS+PWV). The Integrated Discrimination Improvement (IDI) reached 3.81% (P-valueprediction was also improved by integrating pulse pressure (PP) in the model (C-statistic=0.81 (95% CI: 0.66-0.96); IDI=4.99% (P-valueprediction.

  3. MELD score measured day 10 after orthotopic liver transplantation predicts death and re-transplantation within the first year

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rostved, Andreas A; Lundgren, Jens D; Hillingsø, Jens

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The impact of early allograft dysfunction on the outcome after liver transplantation is yet to be established. We explored the independent predictive value of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score measured in the post-transplant period on the risk of mortality or re......-transplantation. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Retrospective cohort study on adults undergoing orthotopic deceased donor liver transplantation from 2004 to 2014. The MELD score was determined prior to transplantation and daily until 21 days after. The risk of mortality or re-transplantation within the first year was assessed...... day 1 the MELD score significantly diversified and was higher in the poor outcome group (MELD score quartile 4 versus quartile 1-3 at day 10: HR 5.1, 95% CI: 2.8-9.0). This association remained after adjustment for non-identical blood type, autoimmune liver disease and hepatocellular carcinoma...

  4. Morphological Atherosclerosis Calcification Distribution (MACD) Index is a Strong Predictor of Cardio-Vascular Death and Include Predictive Power of BMD

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Claus; Karsdal, Morten; Ganz, Melanie

    Aortic calcification is a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD) related deaths. We investigated the relation between mortality and aspects of number, size, morphology and distribution of calcified plaques in the lumbar aorta and BMD of postmenopausal women. 308 women aged 48 to 76 were...... was significantly higher than AC24 and any single or multivariate metabolic/physical marker. BMD correlates with AC24 among CVD dead patients (p=0.03) unlike MACD (p=0.43). The recent MACD-index provides a unique combination of morphology and distribution of aortic calcifications, factors that in a combination...... increase the biological relevance of the index by emphasizing that smaller plaques with a spread elongated morphology have a larger growth potential and thereby subsequent rupture potential. It includes the predictive power of BMD unlike the AC24 index. Thereby, in the current cohort with a long term...

  5. THE USE OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE FOR THE PREDICTION OF PRODUCTIVITY PARAMETERS IN SWINE CULTURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Fernando Sangoi

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT In similar conditions of food handling and genetics, there are large differences in the final productivity of farms, resulting from inherent factors of the production system. This fact predisposes the need of studies on optimizing the rearing conditions of the farms, in order to verify the main limitations for the producers. Therefore, the present study aims to generate predictions of the swine productivity in the finishing phase, using variables related to their profiles and the production results achieved. 107 farmers belonging to a swine cooperative were considered in the study, located in 47 counties at the Taquari valley region, Brazil. Predictions were generated through the aid of neural networks, and the findings show that Artificial Neural Networks (ANN can predict the productivity variables Feed Conversion, Mortality and Average Daily Gain for the proposed case.

  6. Sand production prediction using ratio of shear modulus to bulk compressibility (case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ehsan Khamehchi

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Sand production is a serious problem widely existing in oil/gas production. The problems resulting from sand influx include abrasion of downhole tubular/casing, subsurface safety valve and surface equipment; casing/tubing buckling, failure of casing or liners from removal of surrounding formation, compaction and erosion; and loss of production caused by sand bridging in tubing and/or flow lines. There are several methods for predicting sand production. The methods include use of production data, well logs, laboratory testing, acoustic, intrusive sand monitoring devices, and analogy. The methodologies are reviewed and the data needed for predicting sand production are enumerated. The technique used in this paper involves the calculation of shear modulus, bulk compressibility, and the ratio of shear modulus to bulk compressibility. The shear modulus to bulk compressibility ratio has been related empirically to sand influx. This Mechanical Properties Log method works 81% of the time. This technique is supported with examples and case studies from regions around the world known for sand production. The authors collected the information of the “Kaki and Bushgan Oilfield in Iran”, set a sand production prediction to predict sand production potential. The technique has been successfully applied in reservoirs and results have been compared with testing data.

  7. Interim-treatment quantitative PET parameters predict progression and death among patients with hodgkin's disease

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tseng, Diane; Tran, Phuoc T; Rachakonda, Leelanand P; Su, Zheng; Advani, Ranjana; Horning, Sandra; Hoppe, Richard T; Quon, Andrew; Graves, Edward E; Loo, Billy W Jr

    2012-01-01

    We hypothesized that quantitative PET parameters may have predictive value beyond that of traditional clinical factors such as the International Prognostic Score (IPS) among Hodgkin's disease (HD) patients. Thirty HD patients treated at presentation or relapse had staging and interim-treatment PET-CT scans. The majority of patients (53%) had stage III-IV disease and 67% had IPS ≥ 2. Interim-treatment scans were performed at a median of 55 days from the staging PET-CT. Chemotherapy regimens used: Stanford V (67%), ABVD (17%), VAMP (10%), or BEACOPP (7%). Hypermetabolic tumor regions were segmented semiautomatically and the metabolic tumor volume (MTV), mean standardized uptake value (SUVmean), maximum SUV (SUVmax) and integrated SUV (iSUV) were recorded. We analyzed whether IPS, absolute value PET parameters or the calculated ratio of interim- to pre-treatment PET parameters were associated with progression free survival (PFS) or overall survival (OS). Median follow-up of the study group was 50 months. Six of the 30 patients progressed clinically. Absolute value PET parameters from pre-treatment scans were not significant. Absolute value SUVmax from interim-treatment scans was associated with OS as determined by univariate analysis (p < 0.01). All four calculated PET parameters (interim/pre-treatment values) were associated with OS: MTV int/pre (p < 0.01), SUVmean int/pre (p < 0.05), SUVmax int/pre (p = 0.01), and iSUV int/pre (p < 0.01). Absolute value SUVmax from interim-treatment scans was associated with PFS (p = 0.01). Three calculated PET parameters (int/pre-treatment values) were associated with PFS: MTV int/pre (p = 0.01), SUVmax int/pre (p = 0.02) and iSUV int/pre (p = 0.01). IPS was associated with PFS (p < 0.05) and OS (p < 0.01). Calculated PET metrics may provide predictive information beyond that of traditional clinical factors and may identify patients at high risk of treatment failure early for treatment intensification

  8. Cooperative TRAIL production mediates IFNα/Smac mimetic-induced cell death in TNFα-resistant solid cancer cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roesler, Stefanie; Eckhardt, Ines; Wolf, Sebastian; Fulda, Simone

    2016-01-26

    Smac mimetics antagonize IAP proteins, which are highly expressed in several cancers. Recent reports indicate that Smac mimetics trigger a broad cytokine response and synergize with immune modulators to induce cell death. Here, we identify a differential requirement of TRAIL or TNFα as mediators of IFNα/Smac mimetic-induced cell death depending on the cellular context. Subtoxic concentrations of Smac mimetics cooperate with IFNα to induce cell death in various solid tumor cell lines in a highly synergistic manner as determined by combination index. Mechanistic studies show that IFNα/BV6 cotreatment promotes the formation of a caspase-8-activating complex together with the adaptor protein FADD and RIP1. Assembly of this RIP1/FADD/caspase-8 complex represents a critical event, since RIP1 silencing inhibits IFNα/BV6-induced cell death. Strikingly, pharmacological inhibition of paracrine/autocrine TNFα signaling by the TNFα scavenger Enbrel rescues HT-29 colon carcinoma cells, but not A172 glioblastoma cells from IFNα/BV6-induced cell death. By comparison, A172 cells are significantly protected against IFNα/BV6 treatment by blockage of TRAIL signaling through genetic silencing of TRAIL or its cognate receptor TRAIL receptor 2 (DR5). Despite this differential requirement of TNFα and TRAIL signaling, mRNA and protein expression is increased by IFNα/BV6 cotreatment in both cell lines. Interestingly, A172 cells turn out to be resistant to exogenously added recombinant TNFα even in the presence of BV6, whereas they display a high sensitivity towards TRAIL/BV6. In contrast, BV6 efficiently sensitizes HT-29 cells to TNFα while TRAIL only had limited efficacy. This demonstrates that a differential sensitivity towards TRAIL or TNFα determines the dependency on either death receptor ligand for IFNα/Smac mimetic-induced cell death. Thus, by concomitant stimulation of both death receptor systems IFNα/Smac mimetic combination treatment is an effective strategy to

  9. Rutile nanopowders for pigment production: Formation mechanism and particle size prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wu; Tang, Hongxin

    2018-01-01

    Formation mechanism and particle size prediction of rutile nanoparticles for pigment production were investigated. Anatase nanoparticles were observed by oriented attachment with parallel lattice fringe spaces of 0.2419 nm. Upon increasing the calcination temperature, the (1 1 0) plane of rutile was gradually observed, suggesting that the anatase (1 0 3) planes undergo internal structural rearrangement of oxygen and titanium ions into rutile phase due to ionic diffusion. Backpropagation neural network was used to predict particle size of rutile nanopowders, the prediction errors were all smaller than 2%, providing an efficient method to control particle size in pigment production.

  10. Model for the evaluation and prediction of production rate of sinter ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A model has been derived for evaluation and prediction of production rate of sinter machine operating on vertical mode. The quadratic model expressed as: P = 0.4395 V – 0.0526 V2 + 0.54, showed that the production rate of the sinter machine was dependent on the vertical sintering height. The maximum deviation of the ...

  11. Prediction of cancer cell sensitivity to natural products based on genomic and chemical properties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhenyu Yue

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Natural products play a significant role in cancer chemotherapy. They are likely to provide many lead structures, which can be used as templates for the construction of novel drugs with enhanced antitumor activity. Traditional research approaches studied structure-activity relationship of natural products and obtained key structural properties, such as chemical bond or group, with the purpose of ascertaining their effect on a single cell line or a single tissue type. Here, for the first time, we develop a machine learning method to comprehensively predict natural products responses against a panel of cancer cell lines based on both the gene expression and the chemical properties of natural products. The results on two datasets, training set and independent test set, show that this proposed method yields significantly better prediction accuracy. In addition, we also demonstrate the predictive power of our proposed method by modeling the cancer cell sensitivity to two natural products, Curcumin and Resveratrol, which indicate that our method can effectively predict the response of cancer cell lines to these two natural products. Taken together, the method will facilitate the identification of natural products as cancer therapies and the development of precision medicine by linking the features of patient genomes to natural product sensitivity.

  12. ALV-J infection induces chicken monocyte death accompanied with the production of IL-1β and IL-18.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Manman; Feng, Min; Xie, Tingting; Li, Yuanfang; Ruan, Zhuohao; Shi, Meiqing; Liao, Ming; Zhang, Xiquan

    2017-11-21

    Immunosuppression induced by avian leukosis virus subgroup J (ALV-J) causes serious reproduction problems and secondary infections in chickens. Given that monocytes are important precursors of immune cells including macrophages and dendritic cells, we investigated the fate of chicken monocytes after ALV-J infection. Our results indicated that most monocytes infected with ALV-J including field or laboratory strains could not successfully differentiate into macrophages due to cells death. And cells death was dependent upon viral titer and accompanied with increased IL-1β and IL-18 mRNA levels. In addition, ALV-J infection up-regulated caspase-1 and caspase-3 activity in monocytes. Collectively, we found that ALV-J could cause cell death in chicken monocytes, especially pyroptosis, which may be a significant reason for ALV-J induced immunosuppression.

  13. Development and validation of a bedside score to predict early death in cancer of unknown primary patients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolas Penel

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: We have investigated predictors of 90-day-mortality in a large cohort of non-specific cancer of unknown primary patients. METHODS: Predictors have been identified by univariate and then logistic regression analysis in a single-center cohort comprising 429 patients (development cohort. We identified four predictors that produced a predictive score that has been applied to an independent multi-institutional cohort of 409 patients (validation cohort. The score was the sum of predictors for each patient (0 to 4. RESULTS: The 90-day-mortality-rate was 33 and 26% in both cohorts. Multivariate analysis has identified 4 predictors for 90-day-mortality: performance status>1 (OR = 3.03, p = 0.001, at least one co-morbidity requiring treatment (OR = 2.68, p = 0.004, LDH>1.5 x the upper limit of normal (OR = 2.88, p = 0.007 and low albumin or protein levels (OR = 3.05, p = 0.007. In the development cohort, 90-day-mortality-rates were 12.5%, 32% and 64% when the score was [0-1], 2 and [3]-[4], respectively. In the validation cohort, risks were 13%, 25% and 62% according to the same score values. CONCLUSIONS: We have validated a score that is easily calculated at the beside that estimates the 90-days mortality rate in non-specific CUP patients. This could be helpful to identify patients who would be better served with palliative care rather than aggressive chemotherapy.

  14. Fluvial facies reservoir productivity prediction method based on principal component analysis and artificial neural network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pengyu Gao

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available It is difficult to forecast the well productivity because of the complexity of vertical and horizontal developments in fluvial facies reservoir. This paper proposes a method based on Principal Component Analysis and Artificial Neural Network to predict well productivity of fluvial facies reservoir. The method summarizes the statistical reservoir factors and engineering factors that affect the well productivity, extracts information by applying the principal component analysis method and approximates arbitrary functions of the neural network to realize an accurate and efficient prediction on the fluvial facies reservoir well productivity. This method provides an effective way for forecasting the productivity of fluvial facies reservoir which is affected by multi-factors and complex mechanism. The study result shows that this method is a practical, effective, accurate and indirect productivity forecast method and is suitable for field application.

  15. Evaluation of a gas in vitro system for predicting methane production in vivo

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Danielsson, Rebecca; Ramin, Mohammad; Bertilsson, Jan

    2017-01-01

    in vivo studies, were selected to include diets varying in nutrient composition. Methane production was measured in all in vivo studies by respiration chambers or the GreenFeed system (C-Lock Inc., Rapid City, SD). Overall, the in vitro system predicted CH4 production well (R2 = 0.96), but the values...... known to affect CH4 production such as dry matter intake, digestibility, and dietary concentrations of fat and starch. However, some factors included in the model were not well predicted by the system, with residuals negatively related to neutral detergent fiber concentration and positively related...

  16. Anesthetic death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lauwers, P

    1978-01-01

    Death due to anesthesia is a tragic paradox. The numbers about the frequency of anesthesia-related-death published in many reports have a relative value, as it is impossible to compare them one to another. A synoptic table of 20 important studies made on this subject, shows a great variation in figures concerning the incidence of death related to anesthesia. The most common causes of "anesthetic-death" are mentioned and some suggestions are made to decrease the frequency of death due to anesthesia.

  17. Utilizing artificial neural networks to predict demand for weather-sensitive products at retail stores

    OpenAIRE

    Taghizadeh, Elham

    2017-01-01

    One key requirement for effective supply chain management is the quality of its inventory management. Various inventory management methods are typically employed for different types of products based on their demand patterns, product attributes, and supply network. In this paper, our goal is to develop robust demand prediction methods for weather sensitive products at retail stores. We employ historical datasets from Walmart, whose customers and markets are often exposed to extreme weather ev...

  18. Preliminary evaluation of the importance of existing hydraulic-head observation locations to advective-transport predictions, Death Valley regional flow system, California and Nevada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hill, M.C.; Ely, D.M.; Tiedeman, C.R.; O'Brien, G.M.; D'Agnese, F.A.; Faunt, C.C.

    2001-01-01

    When a model is calibrated by nonlinear regression, calculated diagnostic statistics and measures of uncertainty provide a wealth of information about many aspects of the system. This report presents a method of ranking the likely importance of existing observation locations using measures of prediction uncertainty. It is suggested that continued monitoring is warranted at more important locations, and unwarranted or less warranted at less important locations. The report develops the methodology and then demonstrates it using the hydraulic-head observation locations of a three-layer model of the Death Valley regional flow system (DVRFS). The predictions of interest are subsurface transport from beneath Yucca Mountain and 14 underground Test Area (UGTA) sites. The advective component of transport is considered because it is the component most affected by the system dynamics represented by the regional-scale model being used. The problem is addressed using the capabilities of the U.S. Geological Survey computer program MODFLOW-2000, with its ADVective-Travel Observation (ADV) Package, and an additional computer program developed for this work

  19. Phenotypic engineering of sperm-production rate confirms evolutionary predictions of sperm competition theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sekii, Kiyono; Vizoso, Dita B; Kuales, Georg; De Mulder, Katrien; Ladurner, Peter; Schärer, Lukas

    2013-04-22

    Sperm production is a key male reproductive trait and an important parameter in sperm competition theory. Under sperm competition, paternity success is predicted to depend strongly on male allocation to sperm production. Furthermore, because sperm production is inherently costly, individuals should economize in sperm expenditure, and conditional adjustment of the copulation frequency according to their sperm availability may be expected. However, experimental studies showing effects of sperm production on mating behaviour and paternity success have so far been scarce, mainly because sperm production is difficult to manipulate directly in animals. Here, we used phenotypic engineering to manipulate sperm-production rate, by employing dose-dependent RNA interference (RNAi) of a spermatogenesis-specific gene, macbol1, in the free-living flatworm Macrostomum lignano. We demonstrate (i) that our novel dose-dependent RNAi approach allows us to induce high variability in sperm-production rate; (ii) that a reduced sperm-production rate is associated with a decreased copulation frequency, suggesting conditional adjustment of mating behaviour; and (iii) that both sperm production and copulation frequency are important determinants of paternity success in a competitive situation, as predicted by sperm competition theory. Our study clearly documents the potential of phenotypic engineering via dose-dependent RNAi to test quantitative predictions of evolutionary theory.

  20. FBS or BSA Inhibits EGCG Induced Cell Death through Covalent Binding and the Reduction of Intracellular ROS Production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yin; Xu, Yu-Ying; Sun, Wen-Jie; Zhang, Mo-Han; Zheng, Yi-Fan; Shen, Han-Ming; Yang, Jun; Zhu, Xin-Qiang

    2016-01-01

    Previously we have shown that (-)-epigallocatechin gallate (EGCG) can induce nonapoptotic cell death in human hepatoma HepG 2 cells only under serum-free condition. However, the underlying mechanism for serum in determining the cell fate remains to be answered. The effects of fetal bovine serum (FBS) and its major component bovine serum albumin (BSA) on EGCG-induced cell death were investigated in this study. It was found that BSA, just like FBS, can protect cells from EGCG-induced cell death in a dose-dependent manner. Detailed analysis revealed that both FBS and BSA inhibited generation of ROS to protect against toxicity of EGCG. Furthermore, EGCG was shown to bind to certain cellular proteins including caspase-3, PARP, and α -tubulin, but not LC3 nor β -actin, which formed EGCG-protein complexes that were inseparable by SDS-gel. On the other hand, addition of FBS or BSA to culture medium can block the binding of EGCG to these proteins. In silico docking analysis results suggested that BSA had a stronger affinity to EGCG than the other proteins. Taken together, these data indicated that the protective effect of FBS and BSA against EGCG-induced cell death could be due to (1) the decreased generation of ROS and (2) the competitive binding of BSA to EGCG.

  1. miRNA-197 and miRNA-223 Predict Cardiovascular Death in a Cohort of Patients with Symptomatic Coronary Artery Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulte, Christian; Molz, Simon; Appelbaum, Sebastian; Karakas, Mahir; Ojeda, Francisco; Lau, Denise M; Hartmann, Tim; Lackner, Karl J; Westermann, Dirk; Schnabel, Renate B; Blankenberg, Stefan; Zeller, Tanja

    2015-01-01

    Circulating microRNAs (miRNAs) have been described as potential diagnostic biomarkers in cardiovascular disease and in particular, coronary artery disease (CAD). Few studies were undertaken to perform analyses with regard to risk stratification of future cardiovascular events. miR-126, miR-197 and miR-223 are involved in endovascular inflammation and platelet activation and have been described as biomarkers in the diagnosis of CAD. They were identified in a prospective study in relation to future myocardial infarction. The aim of our study was to further evaluate the prognostic value of these miRNAs in a large prospective cohort of patients with documented CAD. Levels of miR-126, miR-197 and miR-223 were evaluated in serum samples of 873 CAD patients with respect to the endpoint cardiovascular death. miRNA quantification was performed using real time polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR). The median follow-up period was 4 years (IQR 2.78-5.04). The median age of all patients was 64 years (IQR 57-69) with 80.2% males. 38.9% of the patients presented with acute coronary syndrome (ACS), 61.1% were diagnosed with stable angina pectoris (SAP). Elevated levels of miRNA-197 and miRNA-223 reliably predicted future cardiovascular death in the overall group (miRNA-197: hazard ratio (HR) 1.77 per one standard deviation (SD) increase (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.20; 2.60), p = 0.004, C-index 0.78; miRNA-223: HR 2.23 per one SD increase (1.20; 4.14), p = 0.011, C-index 0.80). In ACS patients the prognostic power of both miRNAs was even higher (miRNA-197: HR 2.24 per one SD increase (1.25; 4.01), p = 0.006, C-index 0.89); miRA-223: HR 4.94 per one SD increase (1.42; 17.20), p = 0.012, C-index 0.89). Serum-derived circulating miRNA-197 and miRNA-223 were identified as predictors for cardiovascular death in a large patient cohort with CAD. These results reinforce the assumption that circulating miRNAs are promising biomarkers with prognostic value with respect to future

  2. Use of left ventricular ejection fraction or wall-motion score index in predicting arrhythmic death in patients following an acute myocardial infarction. The TRACE Study Group

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Køber, L; Torp-Pedersen, C; Elming, H

    1997-01-01

    on the correlation between arrhythmic death and "sudden unexpected death" defined as death within 1 hour of onset of new symptoms. Assessment of late potentials, heart rate variability (HRV), T wave alternans, arrhythmias seen on Holter monitoring or during exercise testing, electrophysiological testing...

  3. DATA MINING METHODOLOGY FOR DETERMINING THE OPTIMAL MODEL OF COST PREDICTION IN SHIP INTERIM PRODUCT ASSEMBLY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Damir Kolich

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In order to accurately predict costs of the thousands of interim products that are assembled in shipyards, it is necessary to use skilled engineers to develop detailed Gantt charts for each interim product separately which takes many hours. It is helpful to develop a prediction tool to estimate the cost of interim products accurately and quickly without the need for skilled engineers. This will drive down shipyard costs and improve competitiveness. Data mining is used extensively for developing prediction models in other industries. Since ships consist of thousands of interim products, it is logical to develop a data mining methodology for a shipyard or any other manufacturing industry where interim products are produced. The methodology involves analysis of existing interim products and data collection. Pre-processing and principal component analysis is done to make the data “user-friendly” for later prediction processing and the development of both accurate and robust models. The support vector machine is demonstrated as the better model when there are a lower number of tuples. However as the number of tuples is increased to over 10000, then the artificial neural network model is recommended.

  4. Hemolysis is associated with low reticulocyte production index and predicts blood transfusion in severe malarial anemia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rolf Fendel

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Falciparum Malaria, an infectious disease caused by the apicomplexan parasite Plasmodium falciparum, is among the leading causes of death and morbidity attributable to infectious diseases worldwide. In Gabon, Central Africa, one out of four inpatients have severe malarial anemia (SMA, a life-threatening complication if left untreated. Emerging drug resistant parasites might aggravate the situation. This case control study investigates biomarkers of enhanced hemolysis in hospitalized children with either SMA or mild malaria (MM. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Ninety-one children were included, thereof 39 SMA patients. Strict inclusion criteria were chosen to exclude other causes of anemia. At diagnosis, erythrophagocytosis (a direct marker for extravascular hemolysis, EVH was enhanced in SMA compared to MM patients (5.0 arbitrary units (AU (interquartile range (IR: 2.2-9.6 vs. 2.1 AU (IR: 1.3-3.9, p<0.01. Furthermore, indirect markers for EVH, (i.e. serum neopterin levels, spleen size enlargement and monocyte pigment were significantly increased in SMA patients. Markers for erythrocyte ageing, such as CD35 (complement receptor 1, CD55 (decay acceleration factor and phosphatidylserine exposure (annexin-V-binding were investigated by flow cytometry. In SMA patients, levels of CD35 and CD55 on the red blood cell surface were decreased and erythrocyte removal markers were increased when compared to MM or reconvalescent patients. Additionally, intravascular hemolysis (IVH was quantified using several indirect markers (LDH, alpha-HBDH, haptoglobin and hemopexin, which all showed elevated IVH in SMA. The presence of both IVH and EVH predicted the need for blood transfusion during antimalarial treatment (odds ratio 61.5, 95% confidence interval (CI: 8.9-427. Interestingly, this subpopulation is characterized by a significantly lowered reticulocyte production index (RPI, p<0.05. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show the multifactorial pathophysiology of SMA

  5. Current and predicted trends in the production, consumption and trade of live animals and their products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narrod, C; Tiongco, M; Scott, R

    2011-04-01

    Changes in livestock production, driven by both demand- and supply-side factors, have been significant worldwide. Though historically the developed world was a large supplier of meat and livestock for the developing world, the developing world has rapidly increased production and is meeting more of its growing domestic demand. Many regions of the developing world, however, do not produce enough currently to meet their domestic demand and continue to import more than they produce. There are exceptions, such as Brazil, Thailand, the People's Republic of China and India, where growth in livestock production has been rapid. It is anticipated that in the future many of the developing countries will increase domestic production to meet growing domestic demand. By 2030, beef will probably still be the most significant meat import of developing countries and milk will have more than doubled as a net export of the developed world.

  6. Prediction and optimisation of Pb/Zn/Fe sulphide scales in gas production fields

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dyer, Sarah; Orski, Karine; Menezes, Carlos; Heath, Steve; MacPherson, Calum; Simpson, Caroline; Graham, Gordon

    2006-03-15

    Lead, zinc and iron sulphide scales are known to be a particular issue with gas production fields, particularly those producing from HP/HT reservoirs. However the prediction of sulphide scale and the methodologies available for their laboratory assessment are not as well developed as those for the more conventional sulphate and carbonate scales. This work examines a particular sulphide scaling regime from a North Sea high temperature gas condensate production field containing only 0.8ppm of sulphide ions. Sulphide scales were identified in the production system which was shown to be a mixture of lead and zinc sulphide, primarily lead sulphide. This formed as a result of cooling during production resulting in the over saturation of these minerals. This paper describes scale prediction and modified laboratory test protocols used to re-create the scales formed in the field prior to chemical performance testing. From the brine composition, scale prediction identified that the major scales that could be formed were calcium carbonate, iron carbonate, iron sulphide, lead sulphide and zinc sulphide. In addition, modification of the brine compositions led to prediction of primarily one scale or the other. Given the predicted over saturation of various minerals, preliminary laboratory tests were therefore conducted in order to ensure that the scale formed under laboratory conditions was representative of the field scale. Laboratory protocols were therefore developed to ensure that the scales formed in fully anaerobic dynamic performance tests and static performance tests were similar to those encountered in the field. The paper compares results from field analysis, scale predictions and laboratory scale formation tests using newly developed test protocols and shows differences between prediction and laboratory data. The paper therefore demonstrates the importance of ensuring that the correct scale is formed under laboratory test conditions and also indicates some potential

  7. A Predictive Model of Multi-Stage Production Planning for Fixed Time Orders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kozłowski Edward

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The traditional production planning model based upon a deterministic approach is well described in the literature. Due to the uncertain nature of manufacturing processes, such model can however incorrectly represent actual situations on the shop floor. This study develops a mathematical modeling framework for generating production plans in a multistage manufacturing process. The devised model takes into account the stochastic model for predicting the occurrence of faulty products. The aim of the control model is to determine the number of products which should be manufactured in each planning period to minimize both manufacturing costs and potential financial penalties for failing to fulfill the order completely.

  8. Evaluation of predictions of volatile fatty acid production rates by the Molly cow model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghimire, S; Gregorini, P; Hanigan, M D

    2014-01-01

    Predicting ruminal volatile fatty acid (VFA) production is important, as VFA are an energy source to the animal, affect nutrient partitioning, and dictate methane production. The VFA production submodel in the Molly cow model was evaluated using data from 8 publications that reported VFA production rates for cattle. Evaluations were conducted with ruminal water balance predictions enabled and the ruminal VFA stoichiometry coefficients set to "mixed" for all diets, or "mixed" when forage represented between 20 and 80% of the diet, "concentrate" when 80% forage. Prediction errors were relatively insensitive to changes in VFA coefficients by diet type. Root mean square prediction errors (RMSPE) were 63, 63, and 49% for acetate, propionate, and butyrate production rates, respectively. A large proportion of the error was slope bias for acetate and butyrate, and a modest proportion for propionate. Because interconversions between acetate and propionate represent approximately 15% of the variation in net production rates, lack of such consideration in the model may contribute to the substantial model prediction errors. The potential of using thermodynamic equations to predict interconversions was assessed using observed ruminal pH and VFA concentrations from 2 studies and assuming constant hydrogen pressure and concentrations of CO₂, H₂O, adenosine diphosphate, ATP, and inorganic P. Rate constants for conversion of acetate to propionate and propionate to acetate were derived independently from the control treatments and used to predict the fluxes for the other treatment. The observed changes in VFA concentrations and pH explained the observed changes in conversion of acetate to propionate, but overpredicted the change in the propionate to acetate flux in one study. When applied to the other study, the equations predicted the increase in propionate to acetate flux, but failed to predict the observed reduction in acetate to propionate flux. The inability to predict

  9. Duality predictions for the production of heavy quark systems in QCD

    CERN Document Server

    Glück, M

    1978-01-01

    Using partonic semi-local duality ideas combined with QCD the authors derive absolute, parameter-free predictions for the cross sections of heavy quarkonia (J/ psi , psi ', Upsilon , Upsilon ', ...) production in purely hadronic collisions as well as in photoproduction processes. They also discuss 'open' charm (DD) production and show how the CERN SPS beam dump measurements at square root S=27.4 GeV can be naturally reconciled with the predictions of QCD; similarly the recent ISR data are in good agreement with QCD. (23 refs).

  10. Falcarindiol inhibits nitric oxide-mediated neuronal death in lipopolysaccharide-treated organotypic hippocampal cultures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jeong Min; Lee, Pyeongjae; Son, Dongwook; Kim, Hocheol; Kim, Sun Yeou

    2003-10-27

    Excessive nitric oxide (NO) release from activated microglia has a predominant role in neuronal death. This study investigated the effect of falcarindiol, which was isolated from Cnidium officinale Makino, on the NO-mediated neuronal death in lipopolysaccharide (LPS)-treated organotypic hippocampal cultures. Falcarindiol dose-dependently reduced inducible NO synthase (iNOS)-mediated NO production without cytotoxic effects on LPS-activated BV-2 and microglia. Predictably, falcarindiol inhibited neuronal death by reducing NO production in the LPS-treated organotypic hippocampal cultures. N-monomethyl-L-arginine (NMMA), an iNOS inhibitor, also inhibited neuronal death at 500 microM. In contrast, massive neuronal death was induced by excessive NO production in the LPS-treated alone cultures. These results suggest that excessive NO production plays an important role in the neurotoxic effect, and falcarindiol is a potential inhibitor in NO-mediated neuronal death.

  11. An integrated prediction and optimization model of biogas production system at a wastewater treatment facility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akbaş, Halil; Bilgen, Bilge; Turhan, Aykut Melih

    2015-11-01

    This study proposes an integrated prediction and optimization model by using multi-layer perceptron neural network and particle swarm optimization techniques. Three different objective functions are formulated. The first one is the maximization of methane percentage with single output. The second one is the maximization of biogas production with single output. The last one is the maximization of biogas quality and biogas production with two outputs. Methane percentage, carbon dioxide percentage, and other contents' percentage are used as the biogas quality criteria. Based on the formulated models and data from a wastewater treatment facility, optimal values of input variables and their corresponding maximum output values are found out for each model. It is expected that the application of the integrated prediction and optimization models increases the biogas production and biogas quality, and contributes to the quantity of electricity production at the wastewater treatment facility. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Entropy of cardiac repolarization predicts ventricular arrhythmias and mortality in patients receiving an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator for primary prevention of sudden death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeMazumder, Deeptankar; Limpitikul, Worawan B; Dorante, Miguel; Dey, Swati; Mukhopadhyay, Bhasha; Zhang, Yiyi; Moorman, J Randall; Cheng, Alan; Berger, Ronald D; Guallar, Eliseo; Jones, Steven R; Tomaselli, Gordon F

    2016-12-01

    The need for a readily available, inexpensive, non-invasive method for improved risk stratification of heart failure (HF) patients is paramount. Prior studies have proposed that distinct fluctuation patterns underlying the variability of physiological signals have unique prognostic value. We tested this hypothesis in an extensively phenotyped cohort of HF patients using EntropyX QT , a novel non-linear measure of cardiac repolarization dynamics. In a prospective, multicentre, observational study of 852 patients in sinus rhythm undergoing clinically indicated primary prevention implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) implantation (2003-10), exposures included demographics, history, physical examination, medications, laboratory results, serum biomarkers, ejection fraction, conventional electrocardiographic (ECG) analyses of heart rate and QT variability, and EntropyX QT . The primary outcome was first 'appropriate' ICD shock for ventricular arrhythmias. The secondary outcome was composite events (appropriate ICD shock and all-cause mortality). After exclusions, the cohort (n = 816) had a mean age of 60 ± 13 years, 28% women, 36% African Americans, 56% ischaemic cardiomyopathy, and 29 ± 16% Seattle HF risk score (SHFS) 5-year predicted mortality. Over 45 ± 24 months, there were 134 appropriate shocks and 166 deaths. After adjusting for 30 exposures, the hazard ratios (comparing the 5th to 1st quintile of EntropyX QT ) for primary and secondary outcomes were 3.29 (95% CI 1.74-6.21) and 2.28 (1.53-3.41), respectively. Addition of EntropyX QT to a model comprised of the exposures or SHFS significantly increased net reclassification and the ROC curve area. EntropyX QT measured during ICD implantation strongly and independently predicts appropriate shock and all-cause mortality over follow-up. EntropyX QT complements conventional risk predictors and has the potential for broad clinical application. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All

  13. Validation of the 2014 European Society of Cardiology guidelines risk prediction model for the primary prevention of sudden cardiac death in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vriesendorp, Pieter A; Schinkel, Arend F L; Liebregts, Max; Theuns, Dominic A M J; van Cleemput, Johan; Ten Cate, Folkert J; Willems, Rik; Michels, Michelle

    2015-08-01

    The recently released 2014 European Society of Cardiology guidelines of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) use a new clinical risk prediction model for sudden cardiac death (SCD), based on the HCM Risk-SCD study. Our study is the first external and independent validation of this new risk prediction model. The study population consisted of a consecutive cohort of 706 patients with HCM without prior SCD event, from 2 tertiary referral centers. The primary end point was a composite of SCD and appropriate implantable cardioverter-defibrillator therapy, identical to the HCM Risk-SCD end point. The 5-year SCD risk was calculated using the HCM Risk-SCD formula. Receiver operating characteristic curves and C-statistics were calculated for the 2014 European Society of Cardiology guidelines, and risk stratification methods of the 2003 American College of Cardiology/European Society of Cardiology guidelines and 2011 American College of Cardiology Foundation/American Heart Association guidelines. During follow-up of 7.7±5.3 years, SCD occurred in 42 (5.9%) of 706 patients (ages 49±16 years; 34% women). The C-statistic of the new model was 0.69 (95% CI, 0.57-0.82; P=0.008), which performed significantly better than the conventional risk factor models based on the 2003 guidelines (C-statistic of 0.55: 95% CI, 0.47-0.63; P=0.3), and 2011 guidelines (C-statistic of 0.60: 95% CI, 0.50-0.70; P=0.07). The HCM Risk-SCD model improves the risk stratification of patients with HCM for primary prevention of SCD, and calculating an individual risk estimate contributes to the clinical decision-making process. Improved risk stratification is important for the decision making before implantable cardioverter-defibrillator implantation for the primary prevention of SCD. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

  14. Role of Genetic Polymorphisms of Deoxycytidine Kinase and Cytidine Deaminase to Predict Risk of Death in Children with Acute Myeloid Leukemia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aurora Medina-Sanson

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Cytarabine is one of the most effective antineoplastic agents among those used for the treatment of acute myeloid leukemia. However, some patients develop resistance and/or severe side effects to the drug, which may interfere with the efficacy of the treatment. The polymorphisms of some Ara-C metabolizing enzymes seem to affect outcome and toxicity in AML patients receiving cytarabine. We conducted this study in a cohort of Mexican pediatric patients with AML to investigate whether the polymorphisms of the deoxycytidine kinase and cytidine deaminase enzymes are implicated in clinical response and toxicity. Bone marrow and/or peripheral blood samples obtained at diagnosis from 27 previously untreated pediatric patients with de novo AML were processed for genotyping and in vitro chemosensitivity assay, and we analyzed the impact of genotypes and in vitro sensitivity on disease outcome and toxicity. In the multivariate Cox regression analysis, we found that age at diagnosis, wild-type genotype of the CDA A79C polymorphism, and wild-type genotype of the dCK C360G polymorphism were the most significant prognostic factors for predicting the risk of death.

  15. A Reduced Order Model for Fast Production Prediction from an Oil Reservoir with a Gas Cap

    OpenAIRE

    Yang, Yichen

    2016-01-01

    Master's thesis in Petroleum geosciences engineering Economic evaluations are essential inputs for oil and gas field development decisions. These evaluations are critically dependent on the unbiased assessment of uncertainty in the future oil and gas production from wells. However, many production prediction techniques come at significant computational costs as they often require a very large number of highly detailed grid based reservoir simulations. In this study, we present an alter...

  16. Predicting functional product availability and cost through a simulation driven approach

    OpenAIRE

    Kyösti, Petter

    2015-01-01

    New business models, which adhere to new customer values and demands with more service content, call for a closer look at the offered product concepts. One promising methodology is the Functional Product, a total care solution, in which function is guaranteed to a specified level of availability. When guaranteeing function, it is not an option to rely on the assumption that the hardware components will work throughout the whole contract period. For the provider of such a function, predictions...

  17. Do Early Noun and Verb Production Predict Later Verb and Noun Production? Theoretical Implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Longobardi, Emiddia; Spataro, Pietro; Putnick, Diane L.; Bornstein, Marc H.

    2017-01-01

    Many studies have addressed the question of the relative dominance of nouns over verbs in the productive vocabularies of children in the second year of life. Surprisingly, cross-class (noun-to-verb and verb-to-noun) relations between these two lexical categories have seldom been investigated. The present longitudinal study employed observational…

  18. Analysis of the production of salmon fillet - Prediction of production yield

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansson, Gine Ørnholt; Guðjónsdóttir, María; Nielsen, Michael Engelbrecht

    2017-01-01

    The aim was to investigate the influence of raw material variation in Atlantic salmon from aquaculture on filleting yield, and to develop a decision tool for choosing the appropriate raw material for optimized yield. This was achieved by tracking salmon on an individual level (n = 60) through...... the yield after filleting. The model was based on six pre-processing variables and allowed an acceptable prediction of the filleting yield with a root mean square error cross validation of 0.68. The presented model can estimate the slaughter yield for a certain batch before ordering from the slaughterhouse...

  19. Using satellite and real-time weather data to predict maize production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, M. J.; Decker, Wayne L.

    Large-scale assessments of crop conditions prior to harvest are critical for providing early estimates of production. Satellite and weather information provide the opportunity for near real-time crop monitoring. The objective of this research was to develop an operational assessment system for crop production utilizing data from these sources. Maize (Zea mays) production was assessed in 42 Crop Reporting Districts (CRDs) across the United States Corn Belt, which produce 60% of all maize grown in the United States. Satellite, climatolocal, and agricultural data were collected for 8 years, 1985-1992, and aggregated into CRDs. A model predicting the normalized maize yields for each CRD was developed that included as independent variables a satellite data variable, the Vegetation Condition Index, and a climatological variable, the Crop Moisture Index. This model explained approximately three-quarters (R2=0.73) of the variation observed in the normalized yields, and was examined both for its accuracy and its timeliness in providing production estimates. Predicted seasonal yields were summed to provide a maize production estimate for the entire Corn Belt study region. Production estimates deviated from the final USDA statistics, which become available several months after harvest, by less than 10% for all eight growing seasons. In addition, the production estimates were available approximately 2 months prior to the completion of the maize harvest. This system has the potential for providing timely in-formation to organizations monitoring regional or global agricultural production for humanitarian or economic benefits.

  20. Determination of lower and upper bounds of predicted production from history-matched models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Essen, G. M.; Kahrobaei, S.S.; van Oeveren, H.; van den Hof, P.M.J.; Jansen, J.D.

    2016-01-01

    We present a method to determine lower and upper bounds to the predicted production or any other economic objective from history-matched reservoir models. The method consists of two steps: 1) performing a traditional computer-assisted history match of a reservoir model with the objective to

  1. Predictions for exclusive vector meson production in the electron-ion collider

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goncalves, V.P. [Instituto de Fisica e Matematica, Universidade Federal de Pelotas C. P. 354, 96010-090 Pelotas, RS (Brazil); Kugeratski, M.S. [Instituto de Fisica, Universidade de Sao Paulo C. P. 66318, 05315-970 Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Machado, M.V.T. [Centro de Ciencias Exatas e Tecnologicas, Universidade Federal do Pampa Campus de Bage Rua Carlos Barbosa, 96400-970 Bage, RS (Brazil); Navarra, F.S. [Instituto de Fisica, Universidade de Sao Paulo C. P. 66318, 05315-970 Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2010-02-15

    We calculate the nuclear cross section for coherent and incoherent vector meson production within the QCD color dipole picture, including saturation effects. Predictions for scattering on both light and heavy nuclei are given over a wide range of energy. Our analysis shows that coherent process should be dominant in the future electron-ion collider.

  2. Thermic model to predict biogas production in unheated fixed-dome digesters buried in the ground

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Terradas-Ill, Georgina; Cuong, Pham Hung; Triolo, Jin Mi

    2014-01-01

    buried in the soil to study heat transfer between biogas digester and its surroundings. The predicted temperatures in the dome, biogas and slurry inside the digester and the resulting biogas production are presented and validated. The model was well able to estimate digester temperature (linear slope...

  3. Importance of Foliar Nitrogen Concentration to Predict Forest Productivity in the Mid-Atlantic Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yude Pan; John Hom; Jennifer Jenkins; Richard Birdsey

    2004-01-01

    To assess what difference it might make to include spatially defined estimates of foliar nitrogen in the regional application of a forest ecosystem model (PnET-II), we composed model predictions of wood production from extensive ground-based forest inventory analysis data across the Mid-Atlantic region. Spatial variation in foliar N concentration was assigned based on...

  4. Comparison of fission product release predictions using PARFUME with results from the AGR-1 irradiation experiment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Collin, Blaise P.; Petti, David A.; Demkowicz, Paul A.; Maki, John T.

    2014-01-01

    The PARFUME (PARticle FUel ModEl) code was used to predict fission product release from tristructural isotropic (TRISO) coated fuel particles and compacts during the first irradiation experiment (AGR-1) of the Advanced Gas Reactor Fuel Development and Qualification program. The PARFUME model for the AGR-1 experiment used the fuel compact volume average temperature for each of the 620 days of irradiation to calculate the release of fission products silver, cesium, and strontium from a representative particle for a select number of AGR-1 compacts. Post-irradiation examination (PIE) measurements provided data on release of fission products from fuel compacts and fuel particles, and retention of fission products in the compacts outside of the silicon carbide (SiC) layer. PARFUME-predicted fractional release of these fission products was determined and compared to the PIE measurements. Results show an overall over-prediction of the fractional release of cesium by PARFUME. For particles with failed SiC layers, the over-prediction is by a factor of about two, corresponding to an over-estimation of the diffusivity in uranium oxycarbide (UCO) by a factor of about 100. For intact particles, whose release is much lower, the over-prediction is by an average of about an order of magnitude, which could additionally be attributed to an over-estimated diffusivity in SiC by about 30%. The release of strontium from intact particles is also over-estimated by PARFUME, which also points towards an over-estimated diffusivity of strontium in either SiC or UCO, or possibly both. The measured strontium fractional release from intact particles varied considerably from compact to compact, making it difficult to assess the effective over-estimation of the diffusivities. Furthermore, the release of strontium from particles with failed SiC is difficult to observe experimentally due to the release from intact particles, preventing any conclusions to be made on the accuracy or validity of the

  5. High Glucose-Induced PC12 Cell Death by Increasing Glutamate Production and Decreasing Methyl Group Metabolism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minjiang Chen

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. High glucose- (HG- induced neuronal cell death is responsible for the development of diabetic neuropathy. However, the effect of HG on metabolism in neuronal cells is still unclear. Materials and Methods. The neural-crest derived PC12 cells were cultured for 72 h in the HG (75 mM or control (25 mM groups. We used NMR-based metabolomics to examine both intracellular and extracellular metabolic changes in HG-treated PC12 cells. Results. We found that the reduction in intracellular lactate may be due to excreting more lactate into the extracellular medium under HG condition. HG also induced the changes of other energy-related metabolites, such as an increased succinate and creatine phosphate. Our results also reveal that the synthesis of glutamate from the branched-chain amino acids (isoleucine and valine may be enhanced under HG. Increased levels of intracellular alanine, phenylalanine, myoinositol, and choline were observed in HG-treated PC12 cells. In addition, HG-induced decreases in intracellular dimethylamine, dimethylglycine, and 3-methylhistidine may indicate a downregulation of methyl group metabolism. Conclusions. Our metabolomic results suggest that HG-induced neuronal cell death may be attributed to a series of metabolic changes, involving energy metabolism, amino acids metabolism, osmoregulation and membrane metabolism, and methyl group metabolism.

  6. Induction of reactive oxygen intermediates-dependent programmed cell death in human malignant ex vivo glioma cells and inhibition of the vascular endothelial growth factor production by taurolidine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodak, Roksana; Kubota, Hisashi; Ishihara, Hideyuki; Eugster, Hans-Pietro; Könü, Dilek; Möhler, Hanns; Yonekawa, Yasuhiro; Frei, Karl

    2005-06-01

    Taurolidine, a derivative of the amino acid taurin, was recently found to display a potent antineoplastic effect both in vitro and in vivo. The authors therefore initiated studies to assess the potential antineoplastic activity of taurolidine in human glioma cell lines and in ex vivo malignant cell cultures. They also studied the mechanisms that induce cell death and the impact of taurolidine on tumor-derived vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) production. Cytotoxicity and clonogenic assays were performed using crystal violet staining. In the cytotoxicity assay 100% of glioma cell lines (eight of eight) and 74% of ex vivo glioma cultures (14 of 19) demonstrated sensitivity to taurolidine, with a mean median effective concentration (EC50) of 51 +/- 28 microg/ml and 56 +/- 23 microg/ml, respectively. Colony formation was inhibited by taurolidine, with a mean EC50 of 7 +/- 3 microg/ml for the cell lines and a mean EC50 of 3.5 +/- 1.7 microg/ml for the ex vivo glioma cultures. On observing this high activity of taurolidine in both assays, the authors decided to evaluate its cell death mechanisms. Fragmentation of DNA, externalization of phosphatidylserine, activation of poly(adenosine diphosphate-ribose) polymerase, loss of the mitochondrial membrane potential followed by a release of apoptosis-inducing factor, and typical apoptotic features were found after taurolidine treatment. Cell death was preceded by the generation of reactive O2 intermediates, which was abrogated by N-acetylcysteine but not by benzyloxycarbonyl-Val-Ala-Asp-fluoromethylketone. Moreover, taurolidine also induced suppression of VEGF production on the protein and messenger RNA level, as shown by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction. Given all these findings, taurolidine may be a promising new agent in the treatment of malignant gliomas; it displays a combination of antineoplastic and antiangiogenic activities, inducing tumor cell

  7. Application of predictive control in the production of cement raw meal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Zhen; Yu, Hongliang; Wang, Xiaohong

    2017-05-01

    The production process of cement raw material is a large delay, large inertia link; ordinary controlling means by artificial is difficult to get good control effect. In most complex industrial process, predictive control is a good controlling means. In this paper, the modeling method of subspace model identification is used to handle the data gathered from production field. Finally, we obtain a linear discrete model, and then the model is used to design simulation controller. The simulation results show that the control effect is good and meets the control requirements of the production site.

  8. Applying the theory of planned behavior to predict dairy product consumption by older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Kyungwon; Reicks, Marla; Sjoberg, Sara

    2003-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to explain intention to consume dairy products and consumption of dairy products by older adults using the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB). The factors examined were attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control. A cross-sectional questionnaire was administered. Community centers with congregate dining programs, group classes, and recreational events for older adults. One hundred and sixty-two older adults (mean age 75 years) completed the questionnaire. Subjects were mostly women (76%) and white (65%), with about half having less than a high school education or completing high school. Variables based on the TPB were assessed through questionnaire items that were constructed to form scales measuring attitudes, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control, and intention to consume dairy products. Dairy product consumption was measured using a food frequency questionnaire. Regression analyses were used to determine the association between the scales for the 3 variables proposed in the TPB and intention to consume and consumption of dairy products; the alpha level was set at.05 to determine the statistical significance of results. Attitudes toward eating dairy products and perceived behavioral control contributed to the model for predicting intention, whereas subjective norms did not. Attitudes toward eating dairy products were slightly more important than perceived behavioral control in predicting intention. In turn, intention was strongly related to dairy product consumption, and perceived behavioral control was independently associated with dairy product consumption. These results suggest the utility of the TPB in explaining dairy product consumption for older adults. Nutrition education should focus on improving attitudes and removing barriers to consumption of dairy products for older adults.

  9. Comparison of Two Quantitative Analysis Techniques to Predict the Evaluation of Product Form Design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hung-Yuan Chen

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Consumer satisfaction with a product’s form plays an essential role in determining the likelihood of its commercial success. A consumer perception-centered design approach is proposed in this study to aid product designers with incorporating consumers’ perceptions of product forms in the design process. The consumer perception-centered design approach uses the linear modeling technique (multiple linear regression and the nonlinear modeling technique (neural network to determine the satisfying product form design for matching a given product image. A series of experimental evaluations are conducted to collect evaluation results for examining the relationship between the automobile profile features and the consumers’ perceptions of the automobile image. The result of predictive performance comparison shows that both the nonlinear neural network modeling technique and the multiple linear regression technique are comparably good for predicting the consumers’ likely response to a particular automobile profile since the predictive performance difference between the two modeling techniques is very slight in this study. Although this study has chosen a 2D automobile profile for illustration purposes, the concept of the proposed approach is expansively applicable to 3D automotive form design or other consumer product forms.

  10. Global resistance and resilience of primary production following extreme drought are predicted by mean annual precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stuart-Haëntjens, E. J.; De Boeck, H. J.; Lemoine, N. P.; Gough, C. M.; Kröel-Dulay, G.; Mänd, P.; Jentsch, A.; Schmidt, I. K.; Bahn, M.; Lloret, F.; Kreyling, J.; Wohlgemuth, T.; Stampfli, A.; Anderegg, W.; Classen, A. T.; Smith, M. D.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme drought is increasing globally in frequency and intensity, with uncertain consequences for the resistance and resilience of key ecosystem functions, including primary production. Primary production resistance, the capacity of an ecosystem to withstand change in primary production following extreme climate, and resilience, the degree to which primary production recovers, vary among and within ecosystem types, obscuring global patterns of resistance and resilience to extreme drought. Past syntheses on resistance have focused climatic gradients or individual ecosystem types, without assessing interactions between the two. Theory and many empirical studies suggest that forest production is more resistant but less resilient than grassland production to extreme drought, though some empirical studies reveal that these trends are not universal. Here, we conducted a global meta-analysis of sixty-four grassland and forest sites, finding that primary production resistance to extreme drought is predicted by a common continuum of mean annual precipitation (MAP). However, grasslands and forests exhibit divergent production resilience relationships with MAP. We discuss the likely mechanisms underlying the mixed production resistance and resilience patterns of forests and grasslands, including different plant species turnover times and drought adaptive strategies. These findings demonstrate the primary production responses of forests and grasslands to extreme drought are mixed, with far-reaching implications for Earth System Models, ecosystem management, and future studies of extreme drought resistance and resilience.

  11. Predictions of nitrogen oxides production in diffusion turbulent flames; Predictions de la production des oxydes d`azote dans les flammes turbulentes de diffusion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sanders, H.; Gokalp, I. [Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), 45 - Orleans-la-Source (France). Laboratoire de Combustion Systemes Reactifs

    1996-12-31

    The suitability of the turbulent combustion flamelets model in order to predict the index of NO{sub x} production in turbulent flames of hydrogen diffusion is analyzed. In the flamelet approach, the turbulent flame is equivalent to a group of laminar flames submitted to a mechanical stretching which generates a chemical disequilibrium. This effect can be described by the stretching or by the scalar dissipation ratio. A numerical modeling is performed in order to evaluate the advantages of both approaches and to compare the behaviour of the NO{sub x} emission index with the experiments of Chen and Driscoll. This study shows that predictions of NO{sub x} emission indexes have a correct behaviour with respect to the Damkoehler number only when the scalar dissipation ratio is used as a parameter to describe the chemical state outside equilibrium. Predictions of the flamelet models are improving when the Damkoehler number increases. On the other hand, the absolute NO{sub x} concentrations are overestimated and can be due to the effects of differential diffusion. (J.S.) 14 refs.

  12. Simulation and prediction of protein production in fed-batch E. coli cultures: An engineering approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calleja, Daniel; Kavanagh, John; de Mas, Carles; López-Santín, Josep

    2016-04-01

    An overall model describing the dynamic behavior of fed-batch E. coli processes for protein production has been built, calibrated and validated. Using a macroscopic approach, the model consists of three interconnected blocks allowing simulation of biomass, inducer and protein concentration profiles with time. The model incorporates calculation of the extra and intracellular inducer concentration, as well as repressor-inducer dynamics leading to a successful prediction of the product concentration. The parameters of the model were estimated using experimental data of a rhamnulose-1-phosphate aldolase-producer strain, grown under a wide range of experimental conditions. After validation, the model has successfully predicted the behavior of different strains producing two different proteins: fructose-6-phosphate aldolase and ω-transaminase. In summary, the presented approach represents a powerful tool for E. coli production process simulation and control. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  13. Prediction of seasonal climate-induced variations in global food production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iizumi, Toshichika; Sakuma, Hirofumi; Yokozawa, Masayuki

    2013-01-01

    attention to the cropping forecasts of important food-exporting countries as well as to their own domestic food production. Given the increased volatility of food markets and the rising incidence of climatic extremes affecting food production, food price spikes may increase in prevalence in future years(2......-4). Here we present a global assessment of the reliability of crop failure hindcasts for major crops at two lead times derived by linking ensemble seasonal climatic forecasts with statistical crop models. We found that moderate-to-marked yield loss over a substantial percentage (26-33 of the harvested area...... of these crops is reliably predictable if climatic forecasts are near perfect. However, only rice and wheat production are reliably predictable at three months before the harvest using within-season hindcasts. The reliabilities of estimates varied substantially by crop-rice and wheat yields were the most...

  14. Advancing alternatives analysis: The role of predictive toxicology in selecting safer chemical products and processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malloy, Timothy; Zaunbrecher, Virginia; Beryt, Elizabeth; Judson, Richard; Tice, Raymond; Allard, Patrick; Blake, Ann; Cote, Ila; Godwin, Hilary; Heine, Lauren; Kerzic, Patrick; Kostal, Jakub; Marchant, Gary; McPartland, Jennifer; Moran, Kelly; Nel, Andre; Ogunseitan, Oladele; Rossi, Mark; Thayer, Kristina; Tickner, Joel; Whittaker, Margaret; Zarker, Ken

    2017-09-01

    Alternatives analysis (AA) is a method used in regulation and product design to identify, assess, and evaluate the safety and viability of potential substitutes for hazardous chemicals. It requires toxicological data for the existing chemical and potential alternatives. Predictive toxicology uses in silico and in vitro approaches, computational models, and other tools to expedite toxicological data generation in a more cost-effective manner than traditional approaches. The present article briefly reviews the challenges associated with using predictive toxicology in regulatory AA, then presents 4 recommendations for its advancement. It recommends using case studies to advance the integration of predictive toxicology into AA, adopting a stepwise process to employing predictive toxicology in AA beginning with prioritization of chemicals of concern, leveraging existing resources to advance the integration of predictive toxicology into the practice of AA, and supporting transdisciplinary efforts. The further incorporation of predictive toxicology into AA would advance the ability of companies and regulators to select alternatives to harmful ingredients, and potentially increase the use of predictive toxicology in regulation more broadly. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:915-925. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

  15. Death and the Self.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nichols, Shaun; Strohminger, Nina; Rai, Arun; Garfield, Jay

    2018-01-22

    It is an old philosophical idea that if the future self is literally different from the current self, one should be less concerned with the death of the future self (Parfit, ). This paper examines the relation between attitudes about death and the self among Hindus, Westerners, and three Buddhist populations (Lay Tibetan, Lay Bhutanese, and monastic Tibetans). Compared with other groups, monastic Tibetans gave particularly strong denials of the continuity of self, across several measures. We predicted that the denial of self would be associated with a lower fear of death and greater generosity toward others. To our surprise, we found the opposite. Monastic Tibetan Buddhists showed significantly greater fear of death than any other group. The monastics were also less generous than any other group about the prospect of giving up a slightly longer life in order to extend the life of another. Copyright © 2018 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  16. A Network-Based Approach to Modeling and Predicting Product Coconsideration Relations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhenghui Sha

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Understanding customer preferences in consideration decisions is critical to choice modeling in engineering design. While existing literature has shown that the exogenous effects (e.g., product and customer attributes are deciding factors in customers’ consideration decisions, it is not clear how the endogenous effects (e.g., the intercompetition among products would influence such decisions. This paper presents a network-based approach based on Exponential Random Graph Models to study customers’ consideration behaviors according to engineering design. Our proposed approach is capable of modeling the endogenous effects among products through various network structures (e.g., stars and triangles besides the exogenous effects and predicting whether two products would be conisdered together. To assess the proposed model, we compare it against the dyadic network model that only considers exogenous effects. Using buyer survey data from the China automarket in 2013 and 2014, we evaluate the goodness of fit and the predictive power of the two models. The results show that our model has a better fit and predictive accuracy than the dyadic network model. This underscores the importance of the endogenous effects on customers’ consideration decisions. The insights gained from this research help explain how endogenous effects interact with exogeous effects in affecting customers’ decision-making.

  17. Probabilistic approach to the prediction of radioactive contamination of agricultural production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fesenko, S.F.; Chernyaeva, L.G.; Sanzharova, N.I.; Aleksakhin, R.M.

    1993-01-01

    The organization of agricultural production on the territory contaminated as a result of the Chernobyl reactor disaster involves prediction of the content of radionuclides in agro-industrial products. Traditional methods of prediting the contamination in the products does not give sufficient agreement with actual data and as a result it is difficult to make the necessary decisions about eliminating the consequences of the disaster in the agro-industrial complex. In many ways this is because the available methods are based on data on the radionuclide content in soils, plants, and plant and animal products. The parameters of the models used in the prediction are also evaluated on the basis of these results. Even if obtained from a single field or herd of livestock, however, such indicators have substantial variation coefficients due to various factors such as the spatial structure of the fallouts, the variability of the soil properties, the sampling error, the errors of processing and measuring the samples, and well as the data-averaging error. Consequently the parameters of the radionuclide transfer along the agricultural chains are very variable, thus considerably reducing the reliability of predicted values. The reliability of the prediction of radioactive contamination of agricultural products can be increased substantially by taking a probabilistic approach involving information about the random laws of contamination of farming land and the statistical features of the parameters of radionuclie migration along food chains. Considering the above, comparative analysis is made of the results obtained on the basis of the traditional treatment (deterministic in the simplest form) and its probabilistic analog

  18. Encouraging prediction during production facilitates subsequent comprehension: Evidence from interleaved object naming in sentence context and sentence reading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hintz, Florian; Meyer, Antje S; Huettig, Falk

    2016-01-01

    Many studies have shown that a supportive context facilitates language comprehension. A currently influential view is that language production may support prediction in language comprehension. Experimental evidence for this, however, is relatively sparse. Here we explored whether encouraging prediction in a language production task encourages the use of predictive contexts in an interleaved comprehension task. In Experiment 1a, participants listened to the first part of a sentence and provided the final word by naming aloud a picture. The picture name was predictable or not predictable from the sentence context. Pictures were named faster when they could be predicted than when this was not the case. In Experiment 1b the same sentences, augmented by a final spill-over region, were presented in a self-paced reading task. No difference in reading times for predictive versus non-predictive sentences was found. In Experiment 2, reading and naming trials were intermixed. In the naming task, the advantage for predictable picture names was replicated. More importantly, now reading times for the spill-over region were considerable faster for predictive than for non-predictive sentences. We conjecture that these findings fit best with the notion that prediction in the service of language production encourages the use of predictive contexts in comprehension. Further research is required to identify the exact mechanisms by which production exerts its influence on comprehension.

  19. Failure criterion effect on solid production prediction and selection of completion solution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dariush Javani

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Production of fines together with reservoir fluid is called solid production. It varies from a few grams or less per ton of reservoir fluid posing only minor problems, to catastrophic amount possibly leading to erosion and complete filling of the borehole. This paper assesses solid production potential in a carbonate gas reservoir located in the south of Iran. Petrophysical logs obtained from the vertical well were employed to construct mechanical earth model. Then, two failure criteria, i.e. Mohr–Coulomb and Mogi–Coulomb, were used to investigate the potential of solid production of the well in the initial and depleted conditions of the reservoir. Using these two criteria, we estimated critical collapse pressure and compared them to the reservoir pressure. Solid production occurs if collapse pressure is greater than pore pressure. Results indicate that the two failure criteria show different estimations of solid production potential of the studied reservoir. Mohr–Coulomb failure criterion estimated solid production in both initial and depleted conditions, where Mogi–Coulomb criterion predicted no solid production in the initial condition of reservoir. Based on Mogi–Coulomb criterion, the well may not require completion solutions like perforated liner, until at least 60% of reservoir pressure was depleted which leads to decrease in operation cost and time.

  20. Analysis and Prediction of Energy Production in Concentrating Photovoltaic (CPV Installations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Allen Barnett

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available A method for the prediction of Energy Production (EP in Concentrating Photovoltaic (CPV installations is examined in this study. It presents a new method that predicts EP by using Global Horizontal Irradiation (GHI and the Photovoltaic Geographical Information System (PVGIS database, instead of Direct Normal Irradiation (DNI data, which are rarely recorded at most locations. EP at four Spanish CPV installations is analyzed: two are based on silicon solar cells and the other two on multi-junction III-V solar cells. The real EP is compared with the predicted EP. Two methods for EP prediction are presented. In the first preliminary method, a monthly Performance Ratio (PR is used as an arbitrary constant value (75% and an estimation of the DNI. The DNI estimation is obtained from GHI measurements and the PVGIS database. In the second method, a lineal model is proposed for the first time in this paper to obtain the predicted EP from the estimated DNI. This lineal model is the regression line that correlates the real monthly EP and the estimated DNI in 2009. This new method implies that the monthly PR is variable. Using the new method, the difference between the predicted and the real EP values is less than 2% for the annual EP and is in the range of 5.6%–16.1% for the monthly EP. The method that uses the variable monthly PR allows the prediction of the EP with reasonable accuracy. It is therefore possible to predict the CPV EP for any location, using only widely available GHI data and the PVGIS database.

  1. A New Model to Predict Productivity of Multiple-Fractured Horizontal Well in Naturally Fractured Reservoirs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junchao Wang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to predict productivity of multiple-fractured horizontal well in fractured reservoir, flow models of reservoir and hydraulic fractures based on the volumetric source idealization are developed. The models are solved by utilizing Laplace transformation and orthogonal transformation, and flow rate of the well is calculated by coupling the two models. Compared to traditional point source functions, volumetric source function has many advantages in properties of function and programming calculation. The productivity predicting model is verified via an analytical ternary-porosity model. Moreover, a practical example of fractured horizontal well is studied to analyze the productivity and its influent factors. The result shows that flow rate of each fracture is different and inner fracture contributes least to productivity. Meanwhile, there are optimizing ranges for number, length, and conductivity of hydraulic fractures. In low-permeability reservoir, increasing surface area in contact with reservoir by increasing number and length of hydraulic fractures is the most effective method to improve the productivity.

  2. Evaluation of remote-sensing-based rainfall products through predictive capability in hydrological runoff modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stisen, Simon; Sandholt, Inge

    2010-01-01

    were similar. The results showed that the Climate Prediction Center/Famine Early Warning System (CPC-FEWS) and cold cloud duration (CCD) products, which are partly based on rain gauge data and produced specifically for the African continent, performed better in the modelling context than the global......The emergence of regional and global satellite-based rainfall products with high spatial and temporal resolution has opened up new large-scale hydrological applications in data-sparse or ungauged catchments. Particularly, distributed hydrological models can benefit from the good spatial coverage...

  3. Spatiotemporal trends in Canadian domestic wild boar production and habitat predict wild pig distribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Michel, Nicole; Laforge, Michel; van Beest, Floris

    2017-01-01

    eradication of wild pigs is rarely feasible after establishment over large areas, effective management will depend on strengthening regulations and enforcement of containment practices for Canadian domestic wild boar farms. Initiation of coordinated provincial and federal efforts to implement population...... wild boar and test the propagule pressure hypothesis to improve predictive ability of an existing habitat-based model of wild pigs. We reviewed spatiotemporal patterns in domestic wild boar production across ten Canadian provinces during 1991–2011 and evaluated the ability of wild boar farm...... distribution to improve predictive models of wild pig occurrence using a resource selection probability function for wild pigs in Saskatchewan. Domestic wild boar production in Canada increased from 1991 to 2001 followed by sharp declines in all provinces. The distribution of domestic wild boar farms in 2006...

  4. Productive Vocabulary among Three Groups of Bilingual American Children: Comparison and Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cote, Linda R.; Bornstein, Marc H.

    2015-01-01

    The importance of input factors for bilingual children’s vocabulary development was investigated. Forty-seven Argentine, 42 South Korean, 51 European American, 29 Latino immigrant, 26 Japanese immigrant, and 35 Korean immigrant mothers completed checklists of their 20-month-old children’s productive vocabularies. Bilingual children’s vocabulary sizes in each language separately were consistently smaller than their monolingual peers but only Latino bilingual children had smaller total vocabularies than monolingual children. Bilingual children’s vocabulary sizes were similar to each other. Maternal acculturation predicted the amount of input in each language, which then predicted children’s vocabulary size in each language. Maternal acculturation also predicted children’s English-language vocabulary size directly. PMID:25620820

  5. Prediction of novel synthetic pathways for the production of desired chemicals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Park Jin

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There have been several methods developed for the prediction of synthetic metabolic pathways leading to the production of desired chemicals. In these approaches, novel pathways were predicted based on chemical structure changes, enzymatic information, and/or reaction mechanisms, but the approaches generating a huge number of predicted results are difficult to be applied to real experiments. Also, some of these methods focus on specific pathways, and thus are limited to expansion to the whole metabolism. Results In the present study, we propose a system framework employing a retrosynthesis model with a prioritization scoring algorithm. This new strategy allows deducing the novel promising pathways for the synthesis of a desired chemical together with information on enzymes involved based on structural changes and reaction mechanisms present in the system database. The prioritization scoring algorithm employing Tanimoto coefficient and group contribution method allows examination of structurally qualified pathways to recognize which pathway is more appropriate. In addition, new concepts of binding site covalence, estimation of pathway distance and organism specificity were taken into account to identify the best synthetic pathway. Parameters of these factors can be evolutionarily optimized when a newly proven synthetic pathway is registered. As the proofs of concept, the novel synthetic pathways for the production of isobutanol, 3-hydroxypropionate, and butyryl-CoA were predicted. The prediction shows a high reliability, in which experimentally verified synthetic pathways were listed within the top 0.089% of the identified pathway candidates. Conclusions It is expected that the system framework developed in this study would be useful for the in silico design of novel metabolic pathways to be employed for the efficient production of chemicals, fuels and materials.

  6. Distance saturation product predicts health-related quality of life among sarcoidosis patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourbonnais, Julie M; Malaisamy, Subramanian; Dalal, Bhavinkumar D; Samarakoon, Priyan C; Parikh, Swapna R; Samavati, Lobelia

    2012-06-13

    Sarcoidosis is a chronic disease with different phenotypic manifestations. Health-related quality of life is an important aspect in sarcoidosis, yet difficult to measure. The objective of this study was to identify clinical markers predictive of poor quality of life in sarcoidosis patients that can be followed over time and targeted for intervention. We assessed the quality of life of 162 patients with confirmed sarcoidosis in a prospective, cross-sectional study using the Sarcoidosis Health Questionnaire (SHQ) and Short Form-36 Health Survey (SF-36). We evaluated the validity of these questionnaires and sought to identify variables that would best explain the performance scores of the patients. On multivariate regression analyses, the very best composite model to predict total scores from both surveys was a model containing the distance-saturation product and Borg Dyspnea Scale score at the end of a 6-min walk test. This model could better predict SF-36 scores (R² = 0.33) than SHQ scores (R² = 0.24). Substitution of distanced walked in 6 min for the distance-saturation product in this model resulted in a lesser ability to predict both scores (R² = 0.26 for SF-36; R² = 0.22 for SHQ). Both the SHQ and SF-36 surveys are valuable tools in the assessment of health-related quality of life in sarcoidosis patients. The best model to predict quality of life among these patients, as determined by regression analyses, included the distance-saturation product and Borg score after the 6-min walk test. Both variables represent easily obtainable clinical parameters that can be followed over time and targeted for intervention.

  7. Portfolio theory of optimal isometric force production: Variability predictions and nonequilibrium fluctuation dissipation theorem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank, T. D.; Patanarapeelert, K.; Beek, P. J.

    2008-05-01

    We derive a fundamental relationship between the mean and the variability of isometric force. The relationship arises from an optimal collection of active motor units such that the force variability assumes a minimum (optimal isometric force). The relationship is shown to be independent of the explicit motor unit properties and of the dynamical features of isometric force production. A constant coefficient of variation in the asymptotic regime and a nonequilibrium fluctuation-dissipation theorem for optimal isometric force are predicted.

  8. Portfolio theory of optimal isometric force production: Variability predictions and nonequilibrium fluctuation-dissipation theorem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frank, T.D.; Patanarapeelert, K.; Beek, P.J.

    2008-01-01

    We derive a fundamental relationship between the mean and the variability of isometric force. The relationship arises from an optimal collection of active motor units such that the force variability assumes a minimum (optimal isometric force). The relationship is shown to be independent of the explicit motor unit properties and of the dynamical features of isometric force production. A constant coefficient of variation in the asymptotic regime and a nonequilibrium fluctuation-dissipation theorem for optimal isometric force are predicted

  9. Relevancy of Serum Calcium in Predicting Blood Product Transfusion in Trauma

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-08-10

    AFRL-SA-WP-SR-2017-0027 Relevancy of Serum Calcium in Predicting Blood Product Transfusion in Trauma Lt Col Rance Bryan, MOANG...AFRL-SA-WP-SR-2017-0027 HAS BEEN REVIEWED AND IS APPROVED FOR PUBLICATION IN ACCORDANCE WITH ASSIGNED DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT...estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the

  10. BioFuelDB: a database and prediction server of enzymes involved in biofuels production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikhil Chaudhary

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Background In light of the rapid decrease in fossils fuel reserves and an increasing demand for energy, novel methods are required to explore alternative biofuel production processes to alleviate these pressures. A wide variety of molecules which can either be used as biofuels or as biofuel precursors are produced using microbial enzymes. However, the common challenges in the industrial implementation of enzyme catalysis for biofuel production are the unavailability of a comprehensive biofuel enzyme resource, low efficiency of known enzymes, and limited availability of enzymes which can function under extreme conditions in the industrial processes. Methods We have developed a comprehensive database of known enzymes with proven or potential applications in biofuel production through text mining of PubMed abstracts and other publicly available information. A total of 131 enzymes with a role in biofuel production were identified and classified into six enzyme classes and four broad application categories namely ‘Alcohol production’, ‘Biodiesel production’, ‘Fuel Cell’ and ‘Alternate biofuels’. A prediction tool ‘Benz’ was developed to identify and classify novel homologues of the known biofuel enzyme sequences from sequenced genomes and metagenomes. ‘Benz’ employs a hybrid approach incorporating HMMER 3.0 and RAPSearch2 programs to provide high accuracy and high speed for prediction. Results Using the Benz tool, 153,754 novel homologues of biofuel enzymes were identified from 23 diverse metagenomic sources. The comprehensive data of curated biofuel enzymes, their novel homologs identified from diverse metagenomes, and the hybrid prediction tool Benz are presented as a web server which can be used for the prediction of biofuel enzymes from genomic and metagenomic datasets. The database and the Benz tool is publicly available at http://metabiosys.iiserb.ac.in/biofueldb& http://metagenomics.iiserb.ac.in/biofueldb.

  11. Predicting beef carcass retail products of Mediterranean buffaloes by real-time ultrasound measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. De Castro Mourão

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Twenty eight Mediterranean buffaloes bulls were scanned with real-time ultrasound (RTU, slaughtered, and fabricated into retail cuts to determine the potential for ultrasound measures to predict carcass retail yield. Ultrasound measures of fat thickness, ribeye area and rump fat thickness were recorded three to five days prior to slaughter. Carcass measurements were taken, and one side of each carcass was fabricated into retail cuts. Stepwise regression analysis was used to compare possible models for prediction of either kilograms or percent retail product from carcass mesaurements and ultrasound measures. Results indicate that possible prediction models for percent or kilograms of retail products using RTU measures were similar in their predictive power and accuracy when compared to models derived from carcass measurements. Both fat thickness and ribeye area were over-predicted when measured ultrasonically compared to measurements taken on the carcass in the cooler. The mean absolute differences for both traits are larger than the mean differences, indicating that some images were interpreted to be larger and some smaller than actual carcass measurements. Ultrasound measurements of REA and FT had positive correlations with carcass measures of the same traits (r=.96 for REA and r=.99 for FT. Standard errors of prediction currently are being used as the standard to certify ultrasound technicians for accuracy. Regression equations using live weight (LW, rib eye area (REAU and subcutaneous fat thickness (FTU between 12th and 13 th ribs and also over the biceps femoris muscle (FTP8 by ultrasound explained 95% of the variation in the hot carcass weight when measure immediately before slaughter.

  12. Performance Comparison Between Support Vector Regression and Artificial Neural Network for Prediction of Oil Palm Production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mustakim Mustakim

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The largest region that produces oil palm in Indonesia has an important role in improving the welfare of society and economy. Oil palm has increased significantly in Riau Province in every period, to determine the production development for the next few years with the functions and benefits of oil palm carried prediction production results that were seen from time series data last 8 years (2005-2013. In its prediction implementation, it was done by comparing the performance of Support Vector Regression (SVR method and Artificial Neural Network (ANN. From the experiment, SVR produced the best model compared with ANN. It is indicated by the correlation coefficient of 95% and 6% for MSE in the kernel Radial Basis Function (RBF, whereas ANN produced only 74% for R2 and 9% for MSE on the 8th experiment with hiden neuron 20 and learning rate 0,1. SVR model generates predictions for next 3 years which increased between 3% - 6% from actual data and RBF model predictions.

  13. Consensus Modeling for Prediction of Estrogenic Activity of Ingredients Commonly Used in Sunscreen Products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huixiao Hong

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Sunscreen products are predominantly regulated as over-the-counter (OTC drugs by the US FDA. The “active” ingredients function as ultraviolet filters. Once a sunscreen product is generally recognized as safe and effective (GRASE via an OTC drug review process, new formulations using these ingredients do not require FDA review and approval, however, the majority of ingredients have never been tested to uncover any potential endocrine activity and their ability to interact with the estrogen receptor (ER is unknown, despite the fact that this is a very extensively studied target related to endocrine activity. Consequently, we have developed an in silico model to prioritize single ingredient estrogen receptor activity for use when actual animal data are inadequate, equivocal, or absent. It relies on consensus modeling to qualitatively and quantitatively predict ER binding activity. As proof of concept, the model was applied to ingredients commonly used in sunscreen products worldwide and a few reference chemicals. Of the 32 chemicals with unknown ER binding activity that were evaluated, seven were predicted to be active estrogenic compounds. Five of the seven were confirmed by the published data. Further experimental data is needed to confirm the other two predictions.

  14. The ability of self-rated health to predict mortality among community-dwelling elderly individuals differs according to the specific cause of death: data from the NEDICES Cohort

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-Ruiz, Mario; Guerra-Vales, Juan M.; Trincado, Rocío; Fernández, Rebeca; Medrano, María José; Villarejo, Alberto; Benito-León, Julián; Bermejo-Pareja, Félix

    2013-01-01

    Background The biomedical and psychosocial mechanisms underlying the relationship between self-rated health (SRH) and mortality in elderly individuals remain unclear. Objective To assess the association between different measurements of subjective health (global, age-comparative, and time-comparative SRH) and cause-specific mortality. Methods Neurological Disorders in Central Spain (NEDICES) is a prospective population-based survey of the prevalence and incidence of major age-associated conditions. Data on demographic and health-related variables were collected from 5,278 subjects (≥65 years) at the baseline questionnaire. Thirteen-year mortality and cause of death were obtained from the National Death Registry. Adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) for SRH and all-cause and cause-specific mortality were estimated by Cox proportional hazard models. Results At baseline, 4,958 participants (93.9%) answered the SRH questionnaire. At the end of follow-up 2,468 (49.8%) participants had died (of whom 723 [29.2%] died from cardiovascular diseases, 609 [24.7%] from cancer, and 359 [14.5%] from respiratory diseases). Global SRH predicted independently all-cause mortality (aHR for “poor or very poor” vs. “very good” category: 1.39; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.15–1.69). Analysis of cause-specific mortality revealed that global SRH was an independent predictor for death due to respiratory diseases (aHR for “poor or very poor” vs. “very good” category: 2.61; 95% CI: 1.55–4.39), whereas age-comparative SRH exhibited a gradient effect on the risk of death due to stroke. Time-comparative SRH provided small additional predictive value. Conclusions The predictive ability of SRH for mortality largely differs according to the specific cause of death, with the strongest associations found for respiratory disease and stroke mortality. PMID:23615509

  15. Characterization and prediction of chemical functions and weight fractions in consumer products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristin K. Isaacs

    Full Text Available Assessing exposures from the thousands of chemicals in commerce requires quantitative information on the chemical constituents of consumer products. Unfortunately, gaps in available composition data prevent assessment of exposure to chemicals in many products. Here we propose filling these gaps via consideration of chemical functional role. We obtained function information for thousands of chemicals from public sources and used a clustering algorithm to assign chemicals into 35 harmonized function categories (e.g., plasticizers, antimicrobials, solvents. We combined these functions with weight fraction data for 4115 personal care products (PCPs to characterize the composition of 66 different product categories (e.g., shampoos. We analyzed the combined weight fraction/function dataset using machine learning techniques to develop quantitative structure property relationship (QSPR classifier models for 22 functions and for weight fraction, based on chemical-specific descriptors (including chemical properties. We applied these classifier models to a library of 10196 data-poor chemicals. Our predictions of chemical function and composition will inform exposure-based screening of chemicals in PCPs for combination with hazard data in risk-based evaluation frameworks. As new information becomes available, this approach can be applied to other classes of products and the chemicals they contain in order to provide essential consumer product data for use in exposure-based chemical prioritization. Keywords: Chemical function, Exposure modeling, Chemical prioritization, Consumer products, Cosmetics, ExpoCast

  16. Single-Event Transgene Product Levels Predict Levels in Genetically Modified Breeding Stacks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gampala, Satyalinga Srinivas; Fast, Brandon J; Richey, Kimberly A; Gao, Zhifang; Hill, Ryan; Wulfkuhle, Bryant; Shan, Guomin; Bradfisch, Greg A; Herman, Rod A

    2017-09-13

    The concentration of transgene products (proteins and double-stranded RNA) in genetically modified (GM) crop tissues is measured to support food, feed, and environmental risk assessments. Measurement of transgene product concentrations in breeding stacks of previously assessed and approved GM events is required by many regulatory authorities to evaluate unexpected transgene interactions that might affect expression. Research was conducted to determine how well concentrations of transgene products in single GM events predict levels in breeding stacks composed of these events. The concentrations of transgene products were compared between GM maize, soybean, and cotton breeding stacks (MON-87427 × MON-89034 × DAS-Ø15Ø7-1 × MON-87411 × DAS-59122-7 × DAS-40278-9 corn, DAS-81419-2 × DAS-44406-6 soybean, and DAS-21023-5 × DAS-24236-5 × SYN-IR102-7 × MON-88913-8 × DAS-81910-7 cotton) and their component single events (MON-87427, MON-89034, DAS-Ø15Ø7-1, MON-87411, DAS-59122-7, and DAS-40278-9 corn, DAS-81419-2, and DAS-44406-6 soybean, and DAS-21023-5, DAS-24236-5, SYN-IR102-7, MON-88913-8, and DAS-81910-7 cotton). Comparisons were made within a crop and transgene product across plant tissue types and were also made across transgene products in each breeding stack for grain/seed. Scatter plots were generated comparing expression in the stacks to their component events, and the percent of variability accounted for by the line of identity (y = x) was calculated (coefficient of identity, I 2 ). Results support transgene concentrations in single events predicting similar concentrations in breeding stacks containing the single events. Therefore, food, feed, and environmental risk assessments based on concentrations of transgene products in single GM events are generally applicable to breeding stacks composed of these events.

  17. Predictive value of C-reactive protein for tuberculosis, bloodstream infection or death among HIV-infected individuals with chronic, non-specific symptoms and negative sputum smear microscopy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bedell, Richard A; van Lettow, Monique; Meaney, Christopher; Corbett, Elizabeth L; Chan, Adrienne K; Heyderman, Robert S; Anderson, Suzanne T; Åkesson, Ann; Kumwenda, Moses; Zachariah, Rony; Harries, Anthony D; Ramsay, Andrew R

    2018-03-01

    C-reactive protein (CRP) is an inflammatory biomarker that may identify patients at risk of infections or death. Mortality among HIV-infected persons commencing antiretroviral therapy (ART) is often attributed to tuberculosis (TB) or bloodstream infections (BSI). In two district hospitals in southern Malawi, we recruited HIV-infected adults with one or more unexplained symptoms present for at least one month (weight loss, fever or diarrhoea) and negative expectorated sputum microscopy for TB. CRP determination for 452 of 469 (96%) participants at study enrolment was analysed for associations with TB, BSI or death to 120 days post-enrolment. Baseline CRP was significantly elevated among patients with confirmed or probable TB (52), BSI (50) or death (60) compared to those with no identified infection who survived at least 120 days (269). A CRP value of >10 mg/L was associated with confirmed or probable TB (adjusted odds ratio 5.7; 95% CI 2.6, 14.3; 87% sensitivity) or death by 30 days (adjusted odds ratio 9.2; 95% CI 2.2, 55.1; 88% sensitivity). CRP was independently associated with TB, BSI or death, but the prediction of these endpoints was enhanced by including haemoglobin (all outcomes), CD4 count (BSI, death) and whether ART was started (death) in logistic regression models. High CRP at the time of ART initiation is associated with TB, BSI and early mortality and so has potential utility for stratifying patients for intensified clinical and laboratory investigation and follow-up. They may also be considered for empirical treatment of opportunistic infections including TB. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. Evaluation of the association between serum uric acid level andthe predicted risk score of sudden cardiac death in five years in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Özyılmaz, Sinem; Satılmışoğlu, Muhammet Hulusi; Gül, Mehmet; Uyarel, Hüseyin; Serdar, Osman Akin

    2018-03-01

    The aim of this study was to determine the relationship between serum uric acid (UA) level and the predicted risk score for sudden cardiac death in 5 years (the HCM Risk-SCD), galectin-3 level, and positive fragmented QRS (fQRS) on electrocardiography (ECG) in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM). This was a prospective, observational study. In all, 115 consecutive patients (age >17 years) with HCM and 80 healthy participants were included in the study. The HCM Risk-SCD score (%), galectin-3 level, and fQRS on ECG were evaluated in all patients. The serum UA, galectin-3 level, UA/Creatinine ratio, incidence of ventricular tachycardia (VT) and syncope, and some echocardiographic parameters were significantly higher in the patient group than in the control group (all plevel, VT incidence, and need for implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) implantation or cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) than in those without (HCM Risk-SCD >6%. Namely, HCM Risk-SCD >6%, UA: 6.71±1.29 mg/dL, HCM Risk-SCD ≤5.9%, UA: 5.84±1.39 mg/dL, p=0.001; fQRS(+), UA: 6.56±1.20 mg/dL, fQRS(-), UA: 5.63±1.49 mg/dL, p6.320 pg/mL, UA: 6.56±1.27 mg/dL, galectin-3 ≤6.310 pg/mL, p=0.016; left atrium anterior-posterior dimension (LAAPD) >36 mm, UA: 6.31±1.33 mg/dL, LAAPD level, LAAPD, and left ventricular (LV) mass (LVM) (r and p values, respectively: 0.355, level was significantly higher in patients with HCM compared with the control group. A high UA level was associated with a higher HCM Risk-SCD score, positive fQRS, higher galectin-3 level, greater LAAPD, VT incidence, and the need for ICD implantation and CPR in patients with HCM.

  19. A cost prediction model for machine operation in multi-field production systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandro Sopegno

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Capacity planning in agricultural field operations needs to give consideration to the operational system design which involves the selection and dimensioning of production components, such as machinery and equipment. Capacity planning models currently onstream are generally based on average norm data and not on specific farm data which may vary from year to year. In this paper a model is presented for predicting the cost of in-field and transport operations for multiple-field and multiple-crop production systems. A case study from a real production system is presented in order to demonstrate the model’s functionalities and its sensitivity to parameters known to be somewhat imprecise. It was shown that the proposed model can provide operation cost predictions for complex cropping systems where labor and machinery are shared between the various operations which can be individually formulated for each individual crop. By so doing, the model can be used as a decision support system at the strategic level of management of agricultural production systems and specifically for the mid-term design process of systems in terms of labor/machinery and crop selection conforming to the criterion of profitability.

  20. Prediction of the adherence, growth and release of microorganisms in production chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Jong, P; te Giffel, M C; Kiezebrink, E A

    2002-03-25

    The aim of this study was to develop a mathematical model that describes the bacterial contamination of food as a result of adherence, growth and release of bacteria in process equipment. The model developed can be applied to control the bacterial quality of food products produced in process chains in which the final contamination of the product is governed by growth and heat-induced destruction of bacteria. To set up the model, experiments were carried out with a plate heat exchanger using milk inoculated with Streptococcus thermophilus. The growth rate of S. thermophilus in milk could be described accurately by the modified expanded model of Ratkowsky. The observed increase in the concentration of S. thermophilus in milk at the outlet of the plate heat exchanger could be described quantitatively by the model. To predict the contamination of the product, the model was integrated into NIZO-PCS (Process Chain Simulator). The results of computer simulations were validated by a number of measurements in a cheese factory. It turned out that the agreement between the measured and calculated concentrations of S. thermophilus was sufficient for the model to be used for predictions in industrial production chains.

  1. Concrete Cracking Prediction Including the Filling Proportion of Strand Corrosion Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lei; Dai, Lizhao; Zhang, Xuhui; Zhang, Jianren

    2016-01-01

    The filling of strand corrosion products during concrete crack propagation is investigated experimentally in the present paper. The effects of stirrups on the filling of corrosion products and concrete cracking are clarified. A prediction model of crack width is developed incorporating the filling proportion of corrosion products and the twisting shape of the strand. Experimental data on cracking angle, crack width, and corrosion loss obtained from accelerated corrosion tests of concrete beams are presented. The proposed model is verified by experimental data. Results show that the filling extent of corrosion products varies with crack propagation. The rust filling extent increases with the propagating crack until a critical width. Beyond the critical width, the rust-filling extent remains stable. Using stirrups can decrease the critical crack width. Stirrups can restrict crack propagation and reduce the rust filling. The tangent of the cracking angle increases with increasing corrosion loss. The prediction of corrosion-induced crack is sensitive to the rust-filling extent. PMID:28772367

  2. A Robust Statistical Model to Predict the Future Value of the Milk Production of Dairy Cows Using Herd Recording Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Græsbøll, Kaare; Kirkeby, Carsten Thure; Nielsen, Søren Saxmose

    2017-01-01

    The future value of an individual dairy cow depends greatly on its projected milk yield. In developed countries with developed dairy industry infrastructures, facilities exist to record individual cow production and reproduction outcomes consistently and accurately. Accurate prediction...... of the future value of a dairy cow requires further detailed knowledge of the costs associated with feed, management practices, production systems, and disease. Here, we present a method to predict the future value of the milk production of a dairy cow based on herd recording data only. The method consists...... of several steps to evaluate lifetime milk production and individual cow somatic cell counts and to finally predict the average production for each day that the cow is alive. Herd recording data from 610 Danish Holstein herds were used to train and test a model predicting milk production (including factors...

  3. Predictive analytics tools to adjust and monitor performance metrics for the ATLAS Production System

    CERN Document Server

    Titov, Mikhail; The ATLAS collaboration

    2017-01-01

    Every scientific workflow involves an organizational part which purpose is to plan an analysis process thoroughly according to defined schedule, thus to keep work progress efficient. Having such information as an estimation of the processing time or possibility of system outage (abnormal behaviour) will improve the planning process, provide an assistance to monitor system performance and predict its next state. The ATLAS Production System is an automated scheduling system that is responsible for central production of Monte-Carlo data, highly specialized production for physics groups, as well as data pre-processing and analysis using such facilities as grid infrastructures, clouds and supercomputers. With its next generation (ProdSys2) the processing rate is around 2M tasks per year that is more than 365M jobs per year. ProdSys2 evolves to accommodate a growing number of users and new requirements from the ATLAS Collaboration, physics groups and individual users. ATLAS Distributed Computing in its current stat...

  4. An IPSO-SVM algorithm for security state prediction of mine production logistics system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yanliang; Lei, Junhui; Ma, Qiuli; Chen, Xin; Bi, Runfang

    2017-06-01

    A theoretical basis for the regulation of corporate security warning and resources was provided in order to reveal the laws behind the security state in mine production logistics. Considering complex mine production logistics system and the variable is difficult to acquire, a superior security status predicting model of mine production logistics system based on the improved particle swarm optimization and support vector machine (IPSO-SVM) is proposed in this paper. Firstly, through the linear adjustments of inertia weight and learning weights, the convergence speed and search accuracy are enhanced with the aim to deal with situations associated with the changeable complexity and the data acquisition difficulty. The improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO) is then introduced to resolve the problem of parameter settings in traditional support vector machines (SVM). At the same time, security status index system is built to determine the classification standards of safety status. The feasibility and effectiveness of this method is finally verified using the experimental results.

  5. Predictive modeling of biomass production by Chlorella vulgaris in a draft-tube airlift photobioreactor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohsen Mansouri

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to investigate the growth rate of Chlorella vulgaris for CO2 biofixation and biomass production. Six mathematical growth models (Logistic, Gompertz, modified Gompertz, Baranyi, Morgan and Richards were used to evaluate the biomass productivity in continuous processes and to predict the following parameters of cell growth: lag phase duration (λ, maximum specific growth rate (μmax, and maximum cell concentration (Xmax. The low root-mean-square error (RMSE and high regression coefficients (R2 indicated that the models employed were well fitted to the experiment data and it could be regarded as enough to describe biomass production. Using statistical and physiological significance criteria, the Baranyi model was considered the most appropriate for quantifying biomass growth. The biological variables of this model are as follows: μmax=0.0309 h−1, λ=100 h, and Xmax=1.82 g/L.

  6. Does intrinsic motivation fuel the prosocial fire? Motivational synergy in predicting persistence, performance, and productivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, Adam M

    2008-01-01

    Researchers have obtained conflicting results about the role of prosocial motivation in persistence, performance, and productivity. To resolve this discrepancy, I draw on self-determination theory, proposing that prosocial motivation is most likely to predict these outcomes when it is accompanied by intrinsic motivation. Two field studies support the hypothesis that intrinsic motivation moderates the association between prosocial motivation and persistence, performance, and productivity. In Study 1, intrinsic motivation strengthened the relationship between prosocial motivation and the overtime hour persistence of 58 firefighters. In Study 2, intrinsic motivation strengthened the relationship between prosocial motivation and the performance and productivity of 140 fundraising callers. Callers who reported high levels of both prosocial and intrinsic motivations raised more money 1 month later, and this moderated association was mediated by a larger number of calls made. I discuss implications for theory and research on work motivation. 2008 APA

  7. A Simple Physics-Based Model Predicts Oil Production from Thousands of Horizontal Wells in Shales

    KAUST Repository

    Patzek, Tadeusz

    2017-10-18

    Over the last six years, crude oil production from shales and ultra-deep GOM in the United States has accounted for most of the net increase of global oil production. Therefore, it is important to have a good predictive model of oil production and ultimate recovery in shale wells. Here we introduce a simple model of producing oil and solution gas from the horizontal hydrofractured wells. This model is consistent with the basic physics and geometry of the extraction process. We then apply our model thousands of wells in the Eagle Ford shale. Given well geometry, we obtain a one-dimensional nonlinear pressure diffusion equation that governs flow of mostly oil and solution gas. In principle, solutions of this equation depend on many parameters, but in practice and within a given oil shale, all but three can be fixed at typical values, leading to a nonlinear diffusion problem we linearize and solve exactly with a scaling

  8. Global prediction of planktic foraminiferal fluxes from hydrographic and productivity data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Žarić

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Understanding and quantifying the seasonal and spatial distribution of planktic foraminiferal fluxes reflected in sedimentary assemblages is key to interpret foraminifera-based proxies in paleoceanography. Towards this goal we present an empirical model to predict foraminiferal fluxes on a global scale. A compilation of planktic foraminiferal flux and export production data from globally distributed sediment traps together with environmental data of sea-surface temperature and mixed-layer depth from online databases is used to calibrate the model that calculates monthly foraminiferal fluxes for the 18 most common species. The calibrated model is then forced with a global data set of hydrographic and productivity data to predict monthly foraminiferal fluxes worldwide. The predictive skills of the model are assessed by comparing the model output with planktic foraminiferal assemblages from globally distributed surface sediments as well as with measured foraminiferal fluxes of sediment traps not included in the calibration data set. Many general distribution patterns of foraminiferal species recognized from the model output compare favorably with observations from coretops or sediment traps, even though the model still produces problematic results in some places. Among others, meridional gradients in species richness and diversity, increased relative abundances of Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (dex. in upwelling areas, and peak abundances of Globigerinella siphonifera in oligotrophic subtropical gyres show good agreement between model and coretops. Absolute foraminiferal fluxes are significantly underestimated in most cases, while seasonal variations can be reproduced for some species. Interannual differences in foraminiferal fluxes are not reflected by the model which might partly be due to a lack of actual environmental data for the calibration and model experiments. The limited predictive skills of the model suggest that additional parameters

  9. Prediction of gas production using well logs, Cretaceous of north-central Montana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hester, T.C.

    1999-01-01

    Cretaceous gas sands underlie much of east-central Alberta and southern Saskatchewan, eastern Montana, western North Dakota, and parts of South Dakota and Wyoming. Estimates of recoverable biogenic methane from these rocks in the United States are as high as 91 TCF. In northern Montana, current production is localized around a few major structural features, while vast areas in between these structures are not being exploited. Although the potential for production exists, the lack of commercial development is due to three major factors: 1) the lack of pipeline infrastructure; 2) the lack of predictable and reliable rates of production; and 3) the difficulty in recognizing and selecting potentially productive gas-charged intervals. Unconventional (tight), continuous-type reservoirs, such as those in the Cretaceous of the northern Great Plains, are not well suited for conventional methods of formation evaluation. Pay zones frequently consist only of thinly laminated intervals of sandstone, silt, shale stringers, and disseminated clay. Potential producing intervals are commonly unrecognizable on well logs, and thus are overlooked. To aid in the identification and selection of potential producing intervals, a calibration system is developed here that empirically links the 'gas effect' to gas production. The calibration system combines the effects of porosity, water saturation, and clay content into a single 'gas-production index' (GPI) that relates the in-situ rock with production potential. The fundamental method for isolating the gas effect for calibration is a crossplot of neutron porosity minus density porosity vs gamma-ray intensity. Well-log and gas-production data used for this study consist of 242 perforated intervals from 53 gas-producing wells. Interval depths range from about 250 to 2400 ft. Gas volumes in the peak calendar year of production range from about 4 to 136 MMCF. Nine producing formations are represented. Producing-interval data show that porosity

  10. Utility of a novel risk score for prediction of ventricular tachycardia and cardiac death in chronic Chagas disease - the SEARCH-RIO study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P.R. Benchimol-Barbosa

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The SEARCH-RIO study prospectively investigated electrocardiogram (ECG-derived variables in chronic Chagas disease (CCD as predictors of cardiac death and new onset ventricular tachycardia (VT. Cardiac arrhythmia is a major cause of death in CCD, and electrical markers may play a significant role in risk stratification. One hundred clinically stable outpatients with CCD were enrolled in this study. They initially underwent a 12-lead resting ECG, signal-averaged ECG, and 24-h ambulatory ECG. Abnormal Q-waves, filtered QRS duration, intraventricular electrical transients (IVET, 24-h standard deviation of normal RR intervals (SDNN, and VT were assessed. Echocardiograms assessed left ventricular ejection fraction. Predictors of cardiac death and new onset VT were identified in a Cox proportional hazard model. During a mean follow-up of 95.3 months, 36 patients had adverse events: 22 new onset VT (mean±SD, 18.4±4‰/year and 20 deaths (26.4±1.8‰/year. In multivariate analysis, only Q-wave (hazard ratio, HR=6.7; P1. In 10,000 bootstraps, the C-statistic of this novel score was non-inferior to a previously validated (Rassi score (0.89±0.03 and 0.80±0.05, respectively; test for non-inferiority: P<0.001. In CCD, surface ECG-derived variables are predictors of cardiac death and new onset VT.

  11. Relating lab to life: Decrements in attention over time predict math productivity among children with ADHD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fosco, Whitney D; Hawk, Larry W

    2017-02-01

    A child's ability to sustain attention over time (AOT) is critical in attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), yet no prior work has examined the extent to which a child's decrement in AOT on laboratory tasks relates to clinically-relevant behavior. The goal of this study is to provide initial evidence for the criterion validity of laboratory assessments of AOT. A total of 20 children with ADHD (7-12 years of age) who were enrolled in a summer treatment program completed two lab attention tasks (a continuous performance task and a self-paced choice discrimination task) and math seatwork. Analyses focused on relations between attention task parameters and math productivity. Individual differences in overall attention (OA) measures (averaged across time) accounted for 23% of the variance in math productivity, supporting the criterion validity of lab measures of attention. The criterion validity was enhanced by consideration of changes in AOT. Performance on all laboratory attention measures deteriorated as time-on-task increased, and individual differences in the decrement in AOT accounted for 40% of the variance in math productivity. The only variable to uniquely predict math productivity was from the self-paced choice discrimination task. This study suggests that attention tasks in the lab do predict a clinically-relevant target behavior in children with ADHD, supporting their use as a means to study attention processes in a controlled environment. Furthermore, this prediction is improved when attention is examined as a function of time-on-task and when the attentional demands are consistent between lab and life contexts.

  12. The Role of a PMI-Prediction Model in Evaluating Forensic Entomology Experimental Design, the Importance of Covariates, and the Utility of Response Variables for Estimating Time Since Death

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey Wells

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The most common forensic entomological application is the estimation of some portion of the time since death, or postmortem interval (PMI. To our knowledge, a PMI estimate is almost never accompanied by an associated probability. Statistical methods are now available for calculating confidence limits for an insect-based prediction of PMI for both succession and development data. In addition to it now being possible to employ these approaches in validation experiments and casework, it is also now possible to use the criterion of prediction performance to guide training experiments, i.e., to modify carrion insect development or succession experiment design in ways likely to improve the performance of PMI predictions using the resulting data. In this paper, we provide examples, derived from our research program on calculating PMI estimate probabilities, of how training data experiment design can influence the performance of a statistical model for PMI prediction.

  13. Prediction of Pig Trade Movements in Different European Production Systems Using Exponential Random Graph Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Relun, Anne; Grosbois, Vladimir; Alexandrov, Tsviatko; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, Jose M; Waret-Szkuta, Agnes; Molia, Sophie; Etter, Eric Marcel Charles; Martínez-López, Beatriz

    2017-01-01

    In most European countries, data regarding movements of live animals are routinely collected and can greatly aid predictive epidemic modeling. However, the use of complete movements' dataset to conduct policy-relevant predictions has been so far limited by the massive amount of data that have to be processed (e.g., in intensive commercial systems) or the restricted availability of timely and updated records on animal movements (e.g., in areas where small-scale or extensive production is predominant). The aim of this study was to use exponential random graph models (ERGMs) to reproduce, understand, and predict pig trade networks in different European production systems. Three trade networks were built by aggregating movements of pig batches among premises (farms and trade operators) over 2011 in Bulgaria, Extremadura (Spain), and Côtes-d'Armor (France), where small-scale, extensive, and intensive pig production are predominant, respectively. Three ERGMs were fitted to each network with various demographic and geographic attributes of the nodes as well as six internal network configurations. Several statistical and graphical diagnostic methods were applied to assess the goodness of fit of the models. For all systems, both exogenous (attribute-based) and endogenous (network-based) processes appeared to govern the structure of pig trade network, and neither alone were capable of capturing all aspects of the network structure. Geographic mixing patterns strongly structured pig trade organization in the small-scale production system, whereas belonging to the same company or keeping pigs in the same housing system appeared to be key drivers of pig trade, in intensive and extensive production systems, respectively. Heterogeneous mixing between types of production also explained a part of network structure, whichever production system considered. Limited information is thus needed to capture most of the global structure of pig trade networks. Such findings will be useful

  14. NLO QCD+EW predictions for HV and HV +jet production including parton-shower effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granata, F.; Lindert, J. M.; Oleari, C.; Pozzorini, S.

    2017-09-01

    We present the first NLO QCD+EW predictions for Higgs boson production in association with a ℓν ℓ or ℓ + ℓ - pair plus zero or one jets at the LHC. Fixed-order NLO QCD+EW calculations are combined with a QCD+QED parton shower using the recently developed resonance-aware method in the POWHEG framework. Moreover, applying the improved MiNLO technique to Hℓν ℓ +jet and Hℓ + ℓ - +jet production at NLO QCD+EW, we obtain predictions that are NLO accurate for observables with both zero or one resolved jet. This approach permits also to capture higher-order effects associated with the interplay of EW corrections and QCD radiation. The behavior of EW corrections is studied for various kinematic distributions, relevant for experimental analyses of Higgsstrahlung processes at the 13 TeV LHC. Exact NLO EW corrections are complemented with approximate analytic formulae that account for the leading and next-to-leading Sudakov logarithms in the high-energy regime. In the tails of transverse-momentum distributions, relevant for analyses in the boosted Higgs regime, the Sudakov approximation works well, and NLO EW effects can largely exceed the ten percent level. Our predictions are based on the POWHEG BOX RES+OpenLoops framework in combination with the Pythia 8.1 parton shower.

  15. Method of fission product beta spectra measurements for predicting reactor anti-neutrino emission

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Asner, David M.; Burns, Kimberly A.; Campbell, Luke W.; Greenfield, Bryce A.; Kos, Marek S.; Orrell, John L.; Schram, Malachi; VanDevender, Brent A.; Wood, Lynn S.; Wootan, David W.

    2015-03-01

    The nuclear fission process that occurs in the core of nuclear reactors results in unstable, neutron-rich fission products that subsequently beta decay and emit electron antineutrinos. These reactor neutrinos have served neutrino physics research from the initial discovery of the neutrino to today's precision measurements of neutrino mixing angles. The prediction of the absolute flux and energy spectrum of the emitted reactor neutrinos hinges upon a series of seminal papers based on measurements performed in the 1970s and 1980s. The steadily improving reactor neutrino measurement techniques and recent reconsiderations of the agreement between the predicted and observed reactor neutrino flux motivates revisiting the underlying beta spectra measurements. A method is proposed to use an accelerator proton beam delivered to an engineered target to yield a neutron field tailored to reproduce the neutron energy spectrum present in the core of an operating nuclear reactor. Foils of the primary reactor fissionable isotopes placed in this tailored neutron flux will ultimately emit beta particles from the resultant fission products. Measurement of these beta particles in a time projection chamber with a perpendicular magnetic field provides a distinctive set of systematic considerations for comparison to the original seminal beta spectra measurements. Ancillary measurements such as gamma-ray emission and post-irradiation radiochemical analysis will further constrain the absolute normalization of beta emissions per fission. The requirements for unfolding the beta spectra measured with this method into a predicted reactor neutrino spectrum are explored.

  16. USE OF NEAR INFRARED TECHNOLOGY TO PREDICT FATTY ACID GROUPS IN COMMERCIAL GROUND MEAT PRODUCTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sofia Ton

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Near infrared transmittance (NIT, 850 to 1048 nm spectroscopy was used to predict groups of fatty acids (FA, namely saturated FA (SFA, monounsaturated FA (MUFA and polyunsaturated FA (PUFA, in commercial ground meat samples aiming to develope a fast and reliable method for their determination in support of label declaration by the new EC Regulation 1169/2011. Dataset was built using 81 samples of commercial ground meat from different species: beef, pork, chicken and turkey. In some samples, meat was mixtured with different ingredients such as bread, cheese, spices and additives. Samples were first analysed by NIT instrument for spectral information and reference FA values were obtained by gas chromatographic analysis. Prediction models for SFA, MUFA and PUFA expressed on total FA exhibited coefficients of determination of calibration of 0.822, 0.367 and 0.780 on intact samples, and 0.879, 0.726 and 0.908 on minced samples, respectively. Good results were also obtained when FA groups were expressed as g/100g of fresh meat: the coefficient of determination of calibration increased to values larger than 0.915. Moreover, comparing the slightly lower coefficient of determination in crossvalidation of intact compared with minced meat suggested that equations developed for minced samples were more accurate than those built for intact products. Results highlighted the effectiveness of NIT spectroscopy to predict the major FA groups in commercial meat products.

  17. Prediction of municipal water production in touristic Mecca City in Saudi Arabia using neural networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    AbdelHamid Ajbar

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate forecast of municipal water production is critically important for arid and oil rich countries such as Saudi Arabia which depend on costly desalination plants to satisfy the growing water demand. Achieving the desired prediction accuracy is a challenging task since the forecast model should take into consideration a variety of factors such as economic development, climate conditions and population growth. The task is further complicated given that Mecca city is visited regularly by large numbers during specific months in the year due to religious reasons. This study develops a neural network model for forecasting the monthly and annual water demand for Mecca city, Saudi Arabia. The proposed model used historic records of water production and estimated visitors’ distribution to calibrate a neural network model for water demand forecast. The explanatory variables included annually-varying variables such as household income, persons per household, and city population, along with monthly-varying variables such as expected number of visitors each month and maximum monthly temperature. The NN prediction outperforms that of a regular econometric model. The latter is adjusted such that it can provide monthly and annual predictions.

  18. Predicting Solar Flares Using SDO /HMI Vector Magnetic Data Products and the Random Forest Algorithm

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Chang; Deng, Na; Wang, Haimin [Space Weather Research Laboratory, New Jersey Institute of Technology, University Heights, Newark, NJ 07102-1982 (United States); Wang, Jason T. L., E-mail: chang.liu@njit.edu, E-mail: na.deng@njit.edu, E-mail: haimin.wang@njit.edu, E-mail: jason.t.wang@njit.edu [Department of Computer Science, New Jersey Institute of Technology, University Heights, Newark, NJ 07102-1982 (United States)

    2017-07-10

    Adverse space-weather effects can often be traced to solar flares, the prediction of which has drawn significant research interests. The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) produces full-disk vector magnetograms with continuous high cadence, while flare prediction efforts utilizing this unprecedented data source are still limited. Here we report results of flare prediction using physical parameters provided by the Space-weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARP) and related data products. We survey X-ray flares that occurred from 2010 May to 2016 December and categorize their source regions into four classes (B, C, M, and X) according to the maximum GOES magnitude of flares they generated. We then retrieve SHARP-related parameters for each selected region at the beginning of its flare date to build a database. Finally, we train a machine-learning algorithm, called random forest (RF), to predict the occurrence of a certain class of flares in a given active region within 24 hr, evaluate the classifier performance using the 10-fold cross-validation scheme, and characterize the results using standard performance metrics. Compared to previous works, our experiments indicate that using the HMI parameters and RF is a valid method for flare forecasting with fairly reasonable prediction performance. To our knowledge, this is the first time that RF has been used to make multiclass predictions of solar flares. We also find that the total unsigned quantities of vertical current, current helicity, and flux near the polarity inversion line are among the most important parameters for classifying flaring regions into different classes.

  19. Predicting Solar Flares Using SDO/HMI Vector Magnetic Data Products and the Random Forest Algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Chang; Deng, Na; Wang, Jason T. L.; Wang, Haimin

    2017-07-01

    Adverse space-weather effects can often be traced to solar flares, the prediction of which has drawn significant research interests. The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) produces full-disk vector magnetograms with continuous high cadence, while flare prediction efforts utilizing this unprecedented data source are still limited. Here we report results of flare prediction using physical parameters provided by the Space-weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARP) and related data products. We survey X-ray flares that occurred from 2010 May to 2016 December and categorize their source regions into four classes (B, C, M, and X) according to the maximum GOES magnitude of flares they generated. We then retrieve SHARP-related parameters for each selected region at the beginning of its flare date to build a database. Finally, we train a machine-learning algorithm, called random forest (RF), to predict the occurrence of a certain class of flares in a given active region within 24 hr, evaluate the classifier performance using the 10-fold cross-validation scheme, and characterize the results using standard performance metrics. Compared to previous works, our experiments indicate that using the HMI parameters and RF is a valid method for flare forecasting with fairly reasonable prediction performance. To our knowledge, this is the first time that RF has been used to make multiclass predictions of solar flares. We also find that the total unsigned quantities of vertical current, current helicity, and flux near the polarity inversion line are among the most important parameters for classifying flaring regions into different classes.

  20. eTOXlab, an open source modeling framework for implementing predictive models in production environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrió, Pau; López, Oriol; Sanz, Ferran; Pastor, Manuel

    2015-01-01

    Computational models based in Quantitative-Structure Activity Relationship (QSAR) methodologies are widely used tools for predicting the biological properties of new compounds. In many instances, such models are used as a routine in the industry (e.g. food, cosmetic or pharmaceutical industry) for the early assessment of the biological properties of new compounds. However, most of the tools currently available for developing QSAR models are not well suited for supporting the whole QSAR model life cycle in production environments. We have developed eTOXlab; an open source modeling framework designed to be used at the core of a self-contained virtual machine that can be easily deployed in production environments, providing predictions as web services. eTOXlab consists on a collection of object-oriented Python modules with methods mapping common tasks of standard modeling workflows. This framework allows building and validating QSAR models as well as predicting the properties of new compounds using either a command line interface or a graphic user interface (GUI). Simple models can be easily generated by setting a few parameters, while more complex models can be implemented by overriding pieces of the original source code. eTOXlab benefits from the object-oriented capabilities of Python for providing high flexibility: any model implemented using eTOXlab inherits the features implemented in the parent model, like common tools and services or the automatic exposure of the models as prediction web services. The particular eTOXlab architecture as a self-contained, portable prediction engine allows building models with confidential information within corporate facilities, which can be safely exported and used for prediction without disclosing the structures of the training series. The software presented here provides full support to the specific needs of users that want to develop, use and maintain predictive models in corporate environments. The technologies used by e

  1. Surviving death

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gerstroem, Anna

    2013-01-01

    by another bank to which bankers needed to adapt. Even in the acquiring organization, the legacy organizational identity continued to play a significant role. The paper contributes to the important and timely emergence of theory on legacy organizational identity by showing how members of a dead organization...... such phases. The aim of this paper is to explore how an organization’s identity is re-constructed after organizational death. Based on interviews with members of a bankrupted bank who narrate their bankruptcy experiences, the paper explores how legacy organizational identity is constructed after...... organizational death. The paper shows how members draw on their legacy organizational identity to justify their past interpretations and responses to the intensifying bankruptcy threats. Members refer to their firm belief in the bank’s solid and robust identity claim when they explain how they disregarded...

  2. Hyaluronic acid levels predict increased risk of non-AIDS death in hepatitis-coinfected persons interrupting antiretroviral therapy in the SMART Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Peters, Lars; Neuhaus, Jacqueline; Mocroft, Amanda

    2011-01-01

    In the SMART study, HIV-viral-hepatitis-coinfected persons were, compared with HIV-monoinfected persons, at higher risk of non-AIDS death if randomized to the antiretroviral therapy (ART) interruption strategy. We hypothesized that a marker of liver fibrosis, hyaluronic acid (HA), would be predic......In the SMART study, HIV-viral-hepatitis-coinfected persons were, compared with HIV-monoinfected persons, at higher risk of non-AIDS death if randomized to the antiretroviral therapy (ART) interruption strategy. We hypothesized that a marker of liver fibrosis, hyaluronic acid (HA), would...

  3. Health-Related Quality of Life Predicts Major Amputation and Death, but Not Healing, in People With Diabetes Presenting With Foot Ulcers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Siersma, V.; Thorsen, H.; Holstein, P.E.

    2014-01-01

    ObjectiveLow health-related quality of life (HRQoL) has been consistently reported to be associated with poor prognosis for a variety of health outcomes in various settings. We aimed to evaluate whether HRQoL in patients presenting with new diabetic foot ulcers has prognostic significance for ulcer...... healing, major amputation and death.Research design and methodsWe followed 1088 patients with new diabetic foot ulcers presenting for treatment at one of the 14 centers in 10 European countries participating in the Eurodiale study, prospectively until healing (76.9%), major amputation (4.6%) or death (6...

  4. Design Property Network-Based Change Propagation Prediction Approach for Mechanical Product Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Songhua; Jiang, Zhaoliang; Liu, Wenping; Huang, Chuanzhen

    2017-05-01

    Design changes are unavoidable during mechanical product development; whereas the avalanche propagation of design change imposes severely negative impacts on the design cycle. To improve the validity of the change propagation prediction, a mathematical programming model is presented to predict the change propagation impact quantitatively. As the foundation of change propagation prediction, a design change analysis model(DCAM) is built in the form of design property network. In DCAM, the connections of the design properties are identified as the design specification, which conform to the small-world network theory. To quantify the change propagation impact, change propagation intensity(CPI) is defined as a quantitative and much more objective assessment metric. According to the characteristics of DCAM, CPI is defined and indicated by four assessment factors: propagation likelihood, node degree, long-chain linkage, and design margin. Furthermore, the optimal change propagation path is searched with the evolutionary ant colony optimization(ACO) algorithm, which corresponds to the minimized maximum of accumulated CPI. In practice, the change impact of a gear box is successfully analyzed. The proposed change propagation prediction method is verified to be efficient and effective, which could provide different results according to various the initial changes.

  5. A CBR-Based and MAHP-Based Customer Value Prediction Model for New Product Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Yu-Jie; Luo, Xin-xing; Deng, Li

    2014-01-01

    In the fierce market environment, the enterprise which wants to meet customer needs and boost its market profit and share must focus on the new product development. To overcome the limitations of previous research, Chan et al. proposed a dynamic decision support system to predict the customer lifetime value (CLV) for new product development. However, to better meet the customer needs, there are still some deficiencies in their model, so this study proposes a CBR-based and MAHP-based customer value prediction model for a new product (C&M-CVPM). CBR (case based reasoning) can reduce experts' workload and evaluation time, while MAHP (multiplicative analytic hierarchy process) can use actual but average influencing factor's effectiveness in stimulation, and at same time C&M-CVPM uses dynamic customers' transition probability which is more close to reality. This study not only introduces the realization of CBR and MAHP, but also elaborates C&M-CVPM's three main modules. The application of the proposed model is illustrated and confirmed to be sensible and convincing through a stimulation experiment. PMID:25162050

  6. A CBR-based and MAHP-based customer value prediction model for new product development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Yu-Jie; Luo, Xin-xing; Deng, Li

    2014-01-01

    In the fierce market environment, the enterprise which wants to meet customer needs and boost its market profit and share must focus on the new product development. To overcome the limitations of previous research, Chan et al. proposed a dynamic decision support system to predict the customer lifetime value (CLV) for new product development. However, to better meet the customer needs, there are still some deficiencies in their model, so this study proposes a CBR-based and MAHP-based customer value prediction model for a new product (C&M-CVPM). CBR (case based reasoning) can reduce experts' workload and evaluation time, while MAHP (multiplicative analytic hierarchy process) can use actual but average influencing factor's effectiveness in stimulation, and at same time C&M-CVPM uses dynamic customers' transition probability which is more close to reality. This study not only introduces the realization of CBR and MAHP, but also elaborates C&M-CVPM's three main modules. The application of the proposed model is illustrated and confirmed to be sensible and convincing through a stimulation experiment.

  7. Status of the observed and predicted b anti-b production at the Tevatron

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Happacher, F.; Giromini, P.; /Frascati; Ptohos, F.; /Cyprus U.

    2005-09-01

    The authors review the experimental status of the b-quark production at the Fermilab Tevatron. They compare all available measurements to perturbative QCD predictions (NLO and FONLL) and also to the parton-level cross section evaluated with parton-shower Monte Carlo generators. They examine both the single b cross section and the so called b{bar b} correlations. The review shows that the experimental situation is quite complicated because the measurements appear to be inconsistent among themselves. In this situation, there is no solid basis to either claim that perturbative QCD is challenged by these measurements or, in contrast, that long-standing discrepancies between data and theory have been resolved by incrementally improving the measurements and the theoretical prediction.

  8. Computational and experimental prediction of dust production in pebble bed reactors, Part II

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hiruta, Mie; Johnson, Gannon [Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Idaho, 1776 Science Center Drive, Idaho Falls, ID 83401 (United States); Rostamian, Maziar, E-mail: mrostamian@asme.org [Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Idaho, 1776 Science Center Drive, Idaho Falls, ID 83401 (United States); Potirniche, Gabriel P. [Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Idaho, 1776 Science Center Drive, Idaho Falls, ID 83401 (United States); Ougouag, Abderrafi M. [Idaho National Laboratory, 2525 N Fremont Avenue, Idaho Falls, ID 83401 (United States); Bertino, Massimo; Franzel, Louis [Department of Physics, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA 23284 (United States); Tokuhiro, Akira [Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Idaho, 1776 Science Center Drive, Idaho Falls, ID 83401 (United States)

    2013-10-15

    Highlights: • Custom-built high temperature, high pressure tribometer is designed. • Two different wear phenomena at high temperatures are observed. • Experimental wear results for graphite are presented. • The graphite wear dust production in a typical Pebble Bed Reactor is predicted. -- Abstract: This paper is the continuation of Part I, which describes the high temperature and high pressure helium environment wear tests of graphite–graphite in frictional contact. In the present work, it has been attempted to simulate a Pebble Bed Reactor core environment as compared to Part I. The experimental apparatus, which is a custom-designed tribometer, is capable of performing wear tests at PBR relevant higher temperatures and pressures under a helium environment. This environment facilitates prediction of wear mass loss of graphite as dust particulates from the pebble bed. The experimental results of high temperature helium environment are used to anticipate the amount of wear mass produced in a pebble bed nuclear reactor.

  9. Application of Systems Simulation for Predicting and Optimising Energy Requirements for HDF Production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina Maria Luminea

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Even though simulation has been used so far in manufacturing facilities for modelling supply chain management, production management, and business processes, its applications in managing the energy consumption within manufacturing companies represent a new and innovative research domain. This prompted the research undertaken for the work present in this paper. The main focus of this research is to analyse production management in a manufacturing facility and correlate it with the energy consumption. The research initially concentrates on different simulation methodologies and their application in the current manufacturing domain. Literature relating to the correlation of energy consumption with production management has also been reviewed. This review identified very few previous instances where simulation tools were used to predict the energy consumption in a manufacturing facility. This research brings a novel approach to investigating the adaptability of industrial simulation processes and tools for modelling the energy consumption with respect to a variable production output. The end result of this investigation consists of a better understanding of the production system and the energy losses that were captured by the simulation model.

  10. Vegetative biomass predicts inflorescence production along a CO2 concentration gradient in mesic grassland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fay, P. A.; Collins, H.; Polley, W.

    2016-12-01

    Atmospheric CO2 concentration will likely exceed 500 µL L-1 by 2050, often increasing plant community productivity in part by increasing abundance of species favored by increased CA . Whether increased abundance translates to increased inflorescence production is poorly understood, and is important because it indicates the potential effects of CO2 enrichment on genetic variability and the potential for evolutionary change in future generations. We examined whether the responses of inflorescence production to CO2 enrichment in four C4 grasses and a C3 forb were predicted their vegetative biomass, and by soil moisture, soil nitrogen, or light availability. Inflorescence production was studied in a long-term CO2 concentration gradient spanning pre-industrial to anticipated mid-21st century values (250 - 500 µL L-1) maintained on clay, silty clay and sandy loam soils common in the U.S. Southern Plains. We expected that CO2 enrichment would increase inflorescence production, and more so with higher water, nitrogen, or light availability. However, structural equation modeling revealed that vegetative biomass was the single consistent direct predictor of flowering for all species (p Solidago canadensis (C3 forb), direct CO2 effects on flowering were only weakly mediated by indirect effects of soil water content and soil NO3-N availability. For the decreasing species (Bouteloua curtipendula, C4 grass), the negative CO2-flowering relationship was cancelled (p = 0.39) by indirect effects of increased SWC and NO3-N on clay and silty clay soils. For the species with no CO2 response, inflorescence production was predicted only by direct water content (p < 0.0001, Schizachyrium scoparius, C4 grass) or vegetative biomass (p = 0.0009, Tridens albescens, C4 grass) effects. Light availability was unrelated to inflorescence production. Changes in inflorescence production are thus closely tied to direct and indirect effects of CO2 enrichment on vegetative biomass, and may either

  11. Predicting potential and actual distribution of sudden oak death in Oregon: prioritizing landscape contexts for early detection and eradication of disease outbreaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomas Vaclavik; Everett Hansen; Alan Kanaskie; Janet Ohmann

    2010-01-01

    An isolated outbreak of the emerging forest disease sudden oak death was discovered in Oregon forests in 2001. Despite considerable control efforts, disease continues to spread from the introduction site due to slow and incomplete detection and eradication. Annual field surveys and laboratory tests between 2001 and 2009 confirmed a total of 802 infested locations. Here...

  12. An efficient model for predicting mixing lengths in serial pumping of petroleum products

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baptista, Renan Martins [PETROBRAS S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Centro de Pesquisas. Div. de Explotacao]. E-mail: renan@cenpes.petrobras.com.br; Rachid, Felipe Bastos de Freitas [Universidade Federal Fluminense, Niteroi, RJ (Brazil). Dept. de Engenharia Mecanica]. E-mail: rachid@mec.uff.br; Araujo, Jose Henrique Carneiro de [Universidade Federal Fluminense, Niteroi, RJ (Brazil). Dept. de Ciencia da Computacao]. E-mail: jhca@dcc.ic.uff.br

    2000-07-01

    This paper presents a new model for estimating mixing volumes which arises in batching transfers in multi product pipelines. The novel features of the model are the incorporation of the flow rate variation with time and the use of a more precise effective dispersion coefficient, which is considered to depend on the concentration. The governing equation of the model forms a non linear initial value problem that is solved by using a predictor corrector finite difference method. A comparison among the theoretical predictions of the proposed model, a field test and other classical procedures show that it exhibits the best estimate over the whole range of admissible concentrations investigated. (author)

  13. Predicting Solar Flares Using SDO/HMI Vector Magnetic Data Product and Random Forest Algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Chang; Deng, Na; Wang, Jason; Wang, Haimin

    2017-08-01

    Adverse space weather effects can often be traced to solar flares, prediction of which has drawn significant research interests. Many previous forecasting studies used physical parameters derived from photospheric line-of-sight field or ground-based vector field observations. The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory produces full-disk vector magnetograms with continuous high-cadence, while flare prediction efforts utilizing this unprecedented data source are still limited. Here we report results of flare prediction using physical parameters provided by the Space-weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARP) and related data products. We survey X-ray flares occurred from 2010 May to 2016 December, and categorize their source regions into four classes (B, C, M, and X) according to the maximum GOES magnitude of flares they generated. We then retrieve SHARP related parameters for each selected region at the beginning of its flare date to build a database. Finally, we train a machine-learning algorithm, called random forest (RF), to predict the occurrence of a certain class of flares in a given active region within 24 hours, evaluate the classifier performance using the 10-fold cross validation scheme, and characterize the results using standard performace metrics. Compared to previous works, our experiments indicate that using the HMI parameters and RF is a valid method for flare forecasting with fairly reasonable prediction performance. We also find that the total unsigned quantities of vertical current, current helicity, and flux near polarity inversion line are among the most important parameters for classifying flaring regions into different classes.

  14. Highly predictable photosynthetic production in natural macroalgal communities from incoming and absorbed light

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Middelboe, Anne Lise; Sand-Jensen, Kaj; Binzer, Thomas

    2006-01-01

    Photosynthesis-irradiance relationships of macroalgal communities and thalli of dominant species in shallow coastal Danish waters were measured over a full year to test how well community production can be predicted from environmental (incident irradiance and temperature) and community variables...... and was unrelated to incident irradiance, temperature and mean thallus photosynthesis, while community absorptance was a highly significant predictor. Actual rates of community photosynthesis were closely related to incident and absorbed irradiance alone. Community absorptance in turn was correlated to canopy...... (canopy absorptance, species number and thallus metabolism). Detached thalli of dominant species performed optimally at different times of the year, but showed no general seasonal changes in photosynthetic features. Production capacity of communities at high light varied only 1.8-fold over the year...

  15. Towards precise predictions for Higgs-boson production in the MSSM

    CERN Document Server

    Bagnaschi, E; Liebler, S; Mantler, H; Slavich, P; Vicini, A

    2014-01-01

    We study the production of scalar and pseudoscalar Higgs bosons via gluon fusion and bottom-quark annihilation in the MSSM. Relying on the NNLO-QCD calculation implemented in the public code SusHi, we provide precise predictions for the Higgs-production cross section in six benchmark scenarios compatible with the LHC searches. We also provide a detailed discussion of the sources of theoretical uncertainty in our calculation. We examine the dependence of the cross section on the renormalization and factorization scales, on the precise definition of the Higgs-bottom coupling and on the choice of PDFs, as well as the uncertainties associated to our incomplete knowledge of the SUSY contributions through NNLO. In particular, a potentially large uncertainty originates from uncomputed higher-order QCD corrections to the bottom-quark contributions to gluon fusion.

  16. Fully-differential NNLO predictions for vector-boson pair production with MATRIX

    CERN Document Server

    Wiesemann, Marius; Kallweit, Stefan; Rathlev, Dirk

    2016-01-01

    We review the computations of the next-to-next-to-leading order (NNLO) QCD corrections to vector-boson pair production processes in proton–proton collisions and their implementation in the numerical code MATRIX. Our calculations include the leptonic decays of W and Z bosons, consistently taking into account all spin correlations, off-shell effects and non-resonant contributions. For massive vector-boson pairs we show inclusive cross sections, applying the respective mass windows chosen by ATLAS and CMS to define Z bosons from their leptonic decay products, as well as total cross sections for stable bosons. Moreover, we provide samples of differential distributions in fiducial phase-space regions inspired by typical selection cuts used by the LHC experiments. For the vast majority of measurements, the inclusion of NNLO corrections significantly improves the agreement of the Standard Model predictions with data.

  17. Cobalt Alleviates GA-Induced Programmed Cell Death in Wheat Aleurone Layers via the Regulation of H2O2 Production and Heme Oxygenase-1 Expression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Mingzhu; Li, Jiale; Wang, Fangquan; Li, Feng; Yang, Jun; Shen, Wenbiao

    2014-01-01

    Heme oxygenase-1 (HO-1) and hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) are key signaling molecules that are produced in response to various environmental stimuli. Here, we demonstrate that cobalt is able to delay gibberellic acid (GA)-induced programmed cell death (PCD) in wheat aleurone layers. A similar response was observed when samples were pretreated with carbon monoxide (CO) or bilirubin (BR), two end-products of HO catalysis. We further observed that increased HO-1 expression played a role in the cobalt-induced alleviation of PCD. The application of HO-1-specific inhibitor, zinc protoporphyrin-IX (ZnPPIX), substantially prevented the increases of HO-1 activity and the alleviation of PCD triggered by cobalt. The stimulation of HO-1 expression, and alleviation of PCD might be caused by the initial H2O2 production induced by cobalt. qRT-PCR and enzymatic assays revealed that cobalt-induced gene expression and the corresponding activities of superoxide dismutase (SOD), catalase (CAT) and ascorbate peroxidase (APX), three enzymes that metabolize reactive oxygen species, were consistent with the H2O2 accumulation during GA treatment. These cobalt responses were differentially blocked by co-treatment with ZnPPIX. We therefore suggest that HO-1 functions in the cobalt-triggered alleviation of PCD in wheat aleurone layers, which is also dependent on the enhancement of the activities of antioxidant enzymes. PMID:25405743

  18. Spatial and temporal nature of reactive oxygen species production and programmed cell death in elm (Ulmus pumila L.) seeds during controlled deterioration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Die; Ma, Gang; Wang, Qiong; Yao, Jinghan; Wang, Yu; Pritchard, Hugh W; Wang, Xiaofeng

    2012-11-01

    Seed deterioration is poorly understood and remains an active area for research. Seeds of elm (Ulmus pumila L.) were aged at 37 °C above water [controlled deterioration treatment (CDT)] for various lengths of time to assess programmed cell death (PCD) and reactive oxygen species (ROS) product in embryonic tissues during a 5 d period. The hallmarks of PCD were identified in the elm seeds during CDT including TUNEL experiments, DNA laddering, cytochrome c (cyt c) leakage and enzymatic activities. These analyses indicated that PCD occurred systematically and progressively in deteriorated elm seeds. Cyt c release and increase in caspase-3-like/DEVDase activity occurred during CDT, which could be suppressed by ascorbic acid (AsA) and caspase-3 inhibitor Ac-DEVD-CHO, respectively. In situ localization of ROS production indicated that the distinct spatial-temporal signature of ROS during CDT coincided with the changes in PCD hallmark features. Multiple antioxidant elements were activated during the first few days of CDT, but were subsequently depleted as PCD progressed. Taken together, our findings identify PCD as a key mechanism that occurs asymmetrically during elm seeds CDT and suggest an important role for PCD in seeds deterioration. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  19. Death penalty

    OpenAIRE

    Ondík, Ján

    2008-01-01

    The issue of the death penalty is not just a matter of legal and political, but mainly social, ethical and moral. As other questions like abortion, euthanasia and gay adoption of children, this issue forces us to make up our own opinion and take an attitude. In addition, capital punishment is not only historical relic, but there are still lot of states that retained it in their legal system and also a lot of states that can perform it today. And it is not just a totalitarian or authoritarian ...

  20. Co-digestion of solid waste: Towards a simple model to predict methane production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kouas, Mokhles; Torrijos, Michel; Schmitz, Sabine; Sousbie, Philippe; Sayadi, Sami; Harmand, Jérôme

    2018-04-01

    Modeling methane production is a key issue for solid waste co-digestion. Here, the effect of a step-wise increase in the organic loading rate (OLR) on reactor performance was investigated, and four new models were evaluated to predict methane yields using data acquired in batch mode. Four co-digestion experiments of mixtures of 2 solid substrates were conducted in semi-continuous mode. Experimental methane yields were always higher than the BMP values of mixtures calculated from the BMP of each substrate, highlighting the importance of endogenous production (methane produced from auto-degradation of microbial community and generated solids). The experimental methane productions under increasing OLRs corresponded well to the modeled data using the model with constant endogenous production and kinetics identified at 80% from total batch time. This model provides a simple and useful tool for technical design consultancies and plant operators to optimize the co-digestion and the choice of the OLRs. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. DOSIMETRY MODELING FOR PREDICTING RADIOLYTIC PRODUCTION AT THE SPENT FUEL - WATER INTERFACE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    W.H. Miller

    2006-01-01

    The radiolysis of water in contact with spent nuclear fuel (SNF) will produce oxidants and reductants that can affect the dissolution of the fuel in a geologic disposal site. These products are created by initial radiolytic species which are a function of the type of radiation being emitted by the SNF, i.e. alpha, beta and/or gamma, as well as the energy of this radiation, the fuel grain size (and resulting surface-to-volume ratio) and the fuel-to-water ratio. These products interact with the surface of the fuel, creating new species and ultimately affecting the dissolution rate. The objective of the work reported here is to develop a systematic dosimetry model to determine the dose to water from the SNF as a function of these variables. This dose is calculated for different radiation types as a function of decay for the average fuel composition expected at Yucca Mountain. From these dose calculations the production rate of initial radiolytic products can be estimated. This data provides the basis for subsequent determination of the resulting chemical interactions at the fuel/water interface predicted by published theoretical and experimental data

  2. DOSIMETRY MODELING FOR PREDICTING RADIOLYTIC PRODUCTION AT THE SPENT FUEL-WATER INTERFACE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    W.H. Miller

    2006-03-03

    The radiolysis of water in contact with spent nuclear fuel (SNF) will produce oxidants and reductants that can affect the dissolution of the fuel in a geologic disposal site. These products are created by initial radiolytic species which are a function of the type of radiation being emitted by the SNF, i.e. alpha, beta and/or gamma, as well as the energy of this radiation, the fuel grain size (and resulting surface-to-volume ratio) and the fuel-to-water ratio. These products interact with the surface of the fuel, creating new species and ultimately affecting the dissolution rate. The objective of the work reported here is to develop a systematic dosimetry model to determine the dose to water from the SNF as a function of these variables. This dose is calculated for different radiation types as a function of decay for the average fuel composition expected at Yucca Mountain. From these dose calculations the production rate of initial radiolytic products can be estimated. This data provides the basis for subsequent determination of the resulting chemical interactions at the fuel/water interface predicted by published theoretical and experimental data.

  3. Predictive factors of user acceptance on the primary educational mathematics aids product

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hidayah, I.; Margunani; Dwijanto

    2018-03-01

    Mathematics learning in primary schools requires instructional media. According to Piaget's theory, students are still in the concrete operational stage. For this reason, the development of the primary level mathematics aids is needed to support the development of successful mathematics learning. The stages of this research are the stages of commercialization with preparatory, marketing, and measurement analysis procedures. Promotion as part of marketing is done by doing a demonstration to the teacher. Measurements were performed to explore the predictive factors of user feasibility in adopting the product. Measurements were conducted using the concept of Technology Acceptance Model (TAM). Measurement variables include external variables, perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, attitude, intention to use, and actual use. The result of this research shows that the contribution of predictive factors of mathematics teachers on the teaching aids product as follows: the external variable and perceived ease of use at 74%, perceived usefulness at 72%, intention to use (behavioral) at 58%, attitude at 52%, and the consequence factor (actual use) at 42%.

  4. QSAR models for Daphnia magna toxicity prediction of benzoxazinone allelochemicals and their transformation products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo Piparo, Elena; Fratev, Filip; Lemke, Frank; Mazzatorta, Paolo; Smiesko, Martin; Fritz, Jona Ines; Benfenati, Emilio

    2006-02-22

    The overall objective of this study is the ecotoxicological characterization of the benzoxazinone 2,4-dihydroxy-7-methoxy-1,4-benzoxazin-3-one (DIMBOA), the benzoxazolinones benzoxazolin-2-one (BOA) and 6-methoxybenzoxazolin-2-one (MBOA), and their transformation products: phenoxazinones 2-acetylamino-7-methoxy-3H-phenoxazin-3-one (AAMPO), 2-acetylamino-3H-phenoxazin-3-one (AAPO), 2-amino-7-methoxy-3H-phenoxazin-3-one (AMPO), and 2-amino-3H-phenoxazin-3-one (APO); aminophenol 2-aminophenol AP); acetamide N-(2-hydroxyphenyl)acetamide (HPAA); and malonamic acid amide N-(2-hydroxyphenyl)malonamic acid (HPMA). A comparison between empirical results and theoretical ones using rules-based prediction of toxicity was done, and it can be concluded that only the degradation metabolites exhibited significant ecotoxic effect. Using synthetic pesticides knowledge, several QSAR models were trained with various approaches and descriptors. The models generated exhibited good internal predictive ability (R(cv)2 > 0.6) and were used to predict the toxicity of the natural compounds studied.

  5. Genetic parameters for predicted methane production and potential for reducing enteric emissions through genomic selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haas, Y de; Windig, J J; Calus, M P L; Dijkstra, J; Haan, M de; Bannink, A; Veerkamp, R F

    2011-12-01

    Mitigation of enteric methane (CH₄) emission in ruminants has become an important area of research because accumulation of CH₄ is linked to global warming. Nutritional and microbial opportunities to reduce CH₄ emissions have been extensively researched, but little is known about using natural variation to breed animals with lower CH₄ yield. Measuring CH₄ emission rates directly from animals is difficult and hinders direct selection on reduced CH₄ emission. However, improvements can be made through selection on associated traits (e.g., residual feed intake, RFI) or through selection on CH₄ predicted from feed intake and diet composition. The objective was to establish phenotypic and genetic variation in predicted CH₄ output, and to determine the potential of genetics to reduce methane emissions in dairy cattle. Experimental data were used and records on daily feed intake, weekly body weights, and weekly milk production were available from 548 heifers. Residual feed intake (MJ/d) is the difference between net energy intake and calculated net energy requirements for maintenance as a function of body weight and for fat- and protein-corrected milk production. Predicted methane emission (PME; g/d) is 6% of gross energy intake (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change methodology) corrected for energy content of methane (55.65 kJ/g). The estimated heritabilities for PME and RFI were 0.35 and 0.40, respectively. The positive genetic correlation between RFI and PME indicated that cows with lower RFI have lower PME (estimates ranging from 0.18 to 0.84). Hence, it is possible to decrease the methane production of a cow by selecting more-efficient cows, and the genetic variation suggests that reductions in the order of 11 to 26% in 10 yr are theoretically possible, and could be even higher in a genomic selection program. However, several uncertainties are discussed; for example, the lack of true methane measurements (and the key assumption that methane

  6. Improving the prediction of African savanna vegetation variables using time series of MODIS products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsalyuk, Miriam; Kelly, Maggi; Getz, Wayne M.

    2017-09-01

    African savanna vegetation is subject to extensive degradation as a result of rapid climate and land use change. To better understand these changes detailed assessment of vegetation structure is needed across an extensive spatial scale and at a fine temporal resolution. Applying remote sensing techniques to savanna vegetation is challenging due to sparse cover, high background soil signal, and difficulty to differentiate between spectral signals of bare soil and dry vegetation. In this paper, we attempt to resolve these challenges by analyzing time series of four MODIS Vegetation Products (VPs): Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), Leaf Area Index (LAI), and Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FPAR) for Etosha National Park, a semiarid savanna in north-central Namibia. We create models to predict the density, cover, and biomass of the main savanna vegetation forms: grass, shrubs, and trees. To calibrate remote sensing data we developed an extensive and relatively rapid field methodology and measured herbaceous and woody vegetation during both the dry and wet seasons. We compared the efficacy of the four MODIS-derived VPs in predicting vegetation field measured variables. We then compared the optimal time span of VP time series to predict ground-measured vegetation. We found that Multiyear Partial Least Square Regression (PLSR) models were superior to single year or single date models. Our results show that NDVI-based PLSR models yield robust prediction of tree density (R2 = 0.79, relative Root Mean Square Error, rRMSE = 1.9%) and tree cover (R2 = 0.78, rRMSE = 0.3%). EVI provided the best model for shrub density (R2 = 0.82) and shrub cover (R2 = 0.83), but was only marginally superior over models based on other VPs. FPAR was the best predictor of vegetation biomass of trees (R2 = 0.76), shrubs (R2 = 0.83), and grass (R2 = 0.91). Finally, we addressed an enduring challenge in the remote sensing of semiarid

  7. Evaluation of GPS Orbit Prediction Strategies for the IGS Ultra-rapid Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, K.; Bae, T.; Griffiths, J.; Ray, J.

    2011-12-01

    To serve real-time and near real-time users, the International GNSS Service (IGS) produces Ultra-rapid GPS & GLONASS orbit product updates every 6 hr. Each is composed of 24 hr of observed orbits, with an initial latency of 3 hr, together with propagated orbits for the next 24 hr. We have studied how the orbit prediction performance varies as a function of the arc length of the fitted observed orbits and the parameterization strategy used to estimate empirical solar radiation pressure (SRP) effects. To focus on the dynamical aspects of the problem, nearly ideal conditions have been adopted by using IGS Rapid orbits as observations and known Earth orientation parameters (EOPs). Performance was gauged by comparison with Rapid orbits as truth by examining WRMS and median orbit differences over the first 6 hr and the full 24 hr prediction intervals, as well as the stability of the Helmert alignment parameters. Note that the actual IGS Ultra-rapid accuracy is limited mostly by rotational instabilities, especially about the Z axis due to errors in near real-time and predicted UT1 values. We found that observed arc lengths of 40 to 44 hr produce the most stable and accurate predictions during 2010. Two versions of the extended SRP orbit model by the Centre for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE) were tested. Adjusting all 9 SRPs (offsets plus once-per-rev sines and cosines in each D, Y, B component) for each satellite shows smaller mean subdaily, scale, and origin translation differences. On the other hand, when the 4 once-per-rev SRPs in the D and Y directions are held fixed, then smaller, more stable rotational differences are obtained. A combined strategy of rotationally aligning the 9-SRP results to the 5-SRP frame should give optimal predictions with about 15 mm mean WRMS over the first 6 hr and 35 mm over 24 hr. Actual Ultra-rapid performance will be degraded due to larger errors in the available near real-time observed orbits and EOP predictions.

  8. Births and deaths including fetal deaths

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Access to a variety of United States birth and death files including fetal deaths: Birth Files, 1968-2009; 1995-2005; Fetal death file, 1982-2005; Mortality files,...

  9. External validation of the paracetamol-aminotransferase multiplication product to predict hepatotoxicity from paracetamol overdose.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Anselm; Sivilotti, Marco L A; Dargan, Paul I; Wood, David M; Greene, Shaun L

    2015-01-01

    Risk prediction in paracetamol (acetaminophen, or APAP) poisoning treated with acetylcysteine helps guide initial patient management and disposition. The paracetamol-aminotransferase multiplication product may be a useful and less time-sensitive risk predictor. The aim of this study was to validate this multiplication product in an independent cohort of patients with paracetamol overdose. Using an existing toxicology dataset of poisoned patients from two large inner-city United Kingdom teaching hospitals, we retrospectively identified by electronic search all paracetamol overdoses from February 2005 to March 2013. We assessed the diagnostic accuracy of the multiplication product (serum APAP concentration × alanine transaminase [ALT] activity), especially at the pre-specified cut-off points of 1 500 mg/L × IU/L (10 000 micromol/L × IU/L) and 10 000 mg/L × IU/L (66 000 micromol/L × IU/L). The primary outcome was hepatotoxicity defined by a peak ALT > 1000 IU/L. Of 3823 total paracetamol overdose presentations, there were 2743 acute single, 452 delayed single (> 24 h post overdose), 426 staggered (ingestion over > 1 h), and 202 supratherapeutic ingestions. Altogether, 34 patients developed hepatotoxicity. Among the acute single-ingestion patients, a multiplication product > 10 000 mg/L × IU/L had a sensitivity of 80% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 44%, 96%) and specificity of 99.6% [99.3%, 99.8%], while a product > 1 500 mg/L × IU/L had a sensitivity of 100% [66%, 100%] and specificity of 92% [91%, 93%]. Overall, 16 patients with a multiplication product > 10 000 mg/L × IU/L developed hepatotoxicity (likelihood ratio: 250, 95% CI: 130, 480), and 4 patients with a multiplication product between 1 500 and 10 000 (likelihood ratio: 2.5, 95% CI: 1.0, 6.0). No patient with a product 10 000 mg/L × IU/L was associated with a very high likelihood, and < 1 500 mg/L × IU/L with a very low likelihood, of developing hepatotoxicity in patients treated with acetylcysteine.

  10. Evaluation of Climate Change Effect on Agricultural Production of Iran: I. Predicting the Future Agroclimatic Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A Koocheki

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Introduction Future climate change may affect agricultural production through changes in both mean and variability of climatic conditions which in turn could affect crop growth and development. Results of many studies have shown that crop production systems of dry regions are more vulnerable to the predicted climate changes (5 and these impacts are mainly due to the effects of increased temperature on agro-climatic variables (4. During the last decade future changes in agro-climatic variables such as growth degree days, length of growth period and duration of dry season have been studied at regional or national scale with different results depending on studied location (1, 6. However, such information are not available for Iran. In this study different agro-climatic indices of Iran across the country are calculated for the target year 2050 based on business as usual scenario and the results are compared with the current conditions. Materials and Methods Long term climatic data (1965-2005 of 34 stations covering different climates across the country were used as the baseline for predicting future climate as well as current conditions. Two general circulation models (GISS and GFDL were used for prediction of climatic variables in the selected stations for the year 2050 based on business as usual (A1f scenario of CERES family (2 and the results were statistically downscaled for higher resolution (Koocheki et al., 2006. Daily temperatures (minimum, maximum and mean and precipitation were generated from the predicted monthly values. Several agro-climatic indices including potential evapotranspiration, length of growing season (time period between the last spring frost and the first autumn frost, length of dry season (time period where evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation which obtained from ombrothermic curve, and precipitation deficiency index (sum of differences between evapotranspiration and precipitation were calculated based on daily

  11. Depletion of Intracellular Thiols and Increased Production of 4-Hydroxynonenal that Occur During Cryopreservation of Stallion Spermatozoa Lead to Caspase Activation, Loss of Motility, and Cell Death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin Muñoz, Patricia; Ortega Ferrusola, Cristina; Vizuete, Guillermo; Plaza Dávila, Maria; Rodriguez Martinez, Heriberto; Peña, Fernando J

    2015-12-01

    Oxidative stress has been linked to sperm death and the accelerated senescence of cryopreserved spermatozoa. However, the molecular mechanisms behind this phenomenon remain poorly understood. Reactive oxygen species (ROS) are considered relevant signaling molecules for sperm function, only becoming detrimental when ROS homeostasis is lost. We hereby hypothesize that a major component of the alteration of ROS homeostasis in cryopreserved spermatozoa is the exhaustion of intrinsic antioxidant defense mechanisms. To test this hypothesis, semen from seven stallions was frozen using a standard technique. The parameters of sperm quality (motility, velocity, and membrane integrity) and markers of sperm senescence (caspase 3, 4-hydroxynonenal, and mitochondrial membrane potential) were assessed before and after cryopreservation. Changes in the intracellular thiol content were also monitored. Cryopreservation caused significant increases in senescence markers as well as dramatic depletion of intracellular thiols to less than half of the initial values (P spermatozoa without active caspase 3 (r = 0.996, P spermatozoa; additionally, 4-hydroxynonenal levels were negatively correlated with thiol levels (r = -0.856). In conclusion, sperm functionality postthaw correlates with the maintenance of adequate levels of intracellular thiols. The accelerated senescence of thawed spermatozoa is related to oxidative and electrophilic stress induced by increased production of 4-hydroxynoneal in thawed samples once intracellular thiols are depleted. © 2015 by the Society for the Study of Reproduction, Inc.

  12. Climate Change Effects on Agricultural Production of Iran: II. Predicting Productivity of Field Crops and Adaptation Strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A Koocheki

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Introduction Recent evidences confirm that during the next few decades, many agroclimatic indices of Iran would be affected by global climate change. Koocheki et al. using two General Circulation Models showed that the mean annual temperature of the country will increase between 3.5-4.5°C while mean precipitation will reduce by 7-15% to 2050. It is well established that crop growth and development would drastically affect by the future global warming and its consequences because yield determining processes such as photosynthesis and crop phenology are directly related to temperature. On the other hands, the combined effects of CO2 enrichment and temperature rise on crop growth are complicated and should be studied using crop simulation models. Furthermore, adapting to climatic variability will have a substantially greater effect in reducing impacts than willing mitigation. However, such impacts on crop productivity at national scale and adaptive measures for future conditions are rarely studied in Iran. In this research crop development and yield of wheat, corn, chickpea and sugar beet were simulated for the target year of 2050 and the results are compared with the current yield as the baseline. Materials and Methods Future climatic variables were predicted using A1f (business as usual scenario by GFDL general circulation model and the results were used as weather inputs in the SUCROS model which was previously validated against measured data of the four crops. To account for the effect of CO2 enrichment on crop growth the photosynthesis routine of the model was adopted for increased CO2 concentration using a scaling factor. Changes in developmental stages of each crop were estimated for the future conditions and the relation between duration of these stages and yield was determined. Predicted crop yields for the year 2050 were compared with the current potential yields considering some adaptation strategies. Results and Discussion Results

  13. Biosensor Technology Reveals the Disruption of the Endothelial Barrier Function and the Subsequent Death of Blood Brain Barrier Endothelial Cells to Sodium Azide and Its Gaseous Products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dan T. Kho

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Herein we demonstrate the sensitive nature of human blood-brain barrier (BBB endothelial cells to sodium azide and its gaseous product. Sodium azide is known to be acutely cytotoxic at low millimolar concentrations, hence its use as a biological preservative (e.g., in antibodies. Loss of barrier integrity was noticed in experiments using Electric Cell-substrate Impedance Sensing (ECIS biosensor technology, to measure endothelial barrier integrity continuously in real-time. Initially the effect of sodium azide was observed as an artefact where it was present in antibodies being employed in neutralisation experiments. This was confirmed where antibody clones that were azide-free did not mediate loss of barrier function. A delayed loss of barrier function in neighbouring wells implied the influence of a liberated gaseous product. ECIS technology demonstrated that the BBB endothelial cells had a lower level of direct sensitivity to sodium azide of ~3 µM. Evidence of gaseous toxicity was consistently observed at 30 µM and above, with disrupted barrier function and cell death in neighbouring wells. We highlight the ability of this cellular biosensor technology to reveal both the direct and gaseous toxicity mediated by sodium azide. The sensitivity and temporal dimension of ECIS technology was instrumental in these observations. These findings have substantial implications for the wide use of sodium azide in biological reagents, raising issues of their application in live-cell assays and with regard to the protection of the user. This research also has wider relevance highlighting the sensitivity of brain endothelial cells to a known mitochondrial disruptor. It is logical to hypothesise that BBB endothelial dysfunction due to mitochondrial dys-regulation could have an important but underappreciated role in a range of neurological diseases.

  14. Biosensor Technology Reveals the Disruption of the Endothelial Barrier Function and the Subsequent Death of Blood Brain Barrier Endothelial Cells to Sodium Azide and Its Gaseous Products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kho, Dan T; Johnson, Rebecca H; O'Carroll, Simon J; Angel, Catherine E; Graham, E Scott

    2017-09-21

    Herein we demonstrate the sensitive nature of human blood-brain barrier (BBB) endothelial cells to sodium azide and its gaseous product. Sodium azide is known to be acutely cytotoxic at low millimolar concentrations, hence its use as a biological preservative (e.g., in antibodies). Loss of barrier integrity was noticed in experiments using Electric Cell-substrate Impedance Sensing (ECIS) biosensor technology, to measure endothelial barrier integrity continuously in real-time. Initially the effect of sodium azide was observed as an artefact where it was present in antibodies being employed in neutralisation experiments. This was confirmed where antibody clones that were azide-free did not mediate loss of barrier function. A delayed loss of barrier function in neighbouring wells implied the influence of a liberated gaseous product. ECIS technology demonstrated that the BBB endothelial cells had a lower level of direct sensitivity to sodium azide of ~3 µM. Evidence of gaseous toxicity was consistently observed at 30 µM and above, with disrupted barrier function and cell death in neighbouring wells. We highlight the ability of this cellular biosensor technology to reveal both the direct and gaseous toxicity mediated by sodium azide. The sensitivity and temporal dimension of ECIS technology was instrumental in these observations. These findings have substantial implications for the wide use of sodium azide in biological reagents, raising issues of their application in live-cell assays and with regard to the protection of the user. This research also has wider relevance highlighting the sensitivity of brain endothelial cells to a known mitochondrial disruptor. It is logical to hypothesise that BBB endothelial dysfunction due to mitochondrial dys-regulation could have an important but underappreciated role in a range of neurological diseases.

  15. Decision support system in Predicting the Best teacher with Multi Atribute Decesion Making Weighted Product (MADMWP Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Solikhun Solikhun

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Predicting of the best teacher in Indonesia aims to spur the development of the growth and improve the quality of the education. In this paper, the predicting  of the best teacher is implemented based on predefined criteria. To help the predicting process, a decision support system is needed. This paper employs Multi Atribute Decesion Making Weighted Product (MADMWP method. The result of this method is tested some teachers in  junior high school islamic boarding Al-Barokah school, Simalungun, North Sumatera, Indonesia. This system can be used to help in solving problems of the best teacher prediction.

  16. Can we predict the direction of marine primary production change under global warming?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taucher, J.; Oschlies, A.

    2011-01-01

    A global Earth System model is employed to investigate the role of direct temperature effects in the response of marine ecosystems to climate change. While model configurations with and without consideration of explicit temperature effects can reproduce observed current biogeochemical tracer distributions and estimated carbon export about equally well, carbon flow through the model ecosystem reveals strong temperature sensitivities. Depending on whether biological processes are assumed temperature sensitive or not, simulated marine net primary production (NPP) increases or decreases under projected climate change driven by a business-as-usual CO2 emission scenario for the 21st century. This suggests that indirect temperature effects such as changes in the supply of nutrients and light are not the only relevant factors to be considered when modeling the response of marine ecosystems to climate change. A better understanding of direct temperature effects on marine ecosystems is required before even the direction of change in NPP can be reliably predicted.

  17. Simulation of complex glazing products; from optical data measurements to model based predictive controls

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kohler, Christian [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2012-04-01

    Complex glazing systems such as venetian blinds, fritted glass and woven shades require more detailed optical and thermal input data for their components than specular non light-redirecting glazing systems. Various methods for measuring these data sets are described in this paper. These data sets are used in multiple simulation tools to model the thermal and optical properties of complex glazing systems. The output from these tools can be used to generate simplified rating values or as an input to other simulation tools such as whole building annual energy programs, or lighting analysis tools. I also describe some of the challenges of creating a rating system for these products and which factors affect this rating. A potential future direction of simulation and building operations is model based predictive controls, where detailed computer models are run in real-time, receiving data for an actual building and providing control input to building elements such as shades.

  18. Serum anion gap predicts lactate poorly, but may be used to identify sepsis patients at risk for death: A cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohr, Nicholas M; Vakkalanka, J Priyanka; Faine, Brett A; Skow, Brian; Harland, Karisa K; Dick-Perez, Ryan; Fuller, Brian M; Ahmed, Azeemuddin; Simson, Steven Q

    2018-04-01

    (1) To test whether serum bicarbonate or anion gap can be used to predict elevated lactate or mortality in emergency department (ED) patients with sepsis, and (2) to define thresholds that may predict elevated lactate and mortality. Retrospective diagnostic-validation study of adults with sepsis treated in a 60,000-visit Midwestern university ED (2010-2015). In the derivation sample, 8 experts selected thresholds based on objective measures to optimize clinical utility. Test performance was reported using likelihood ratios (LR +/-) in the validation cohort. We included 4159 patients. Anion gap predicted lactate>2 better than bicarbonate [ROC AUC 0.680 vs. 0.609], and anion gap predicted lactate>4 better than lactate>2 [ROC AUC 0.816 vs. 0.680]. In the validation cohort, anion gap ≥20mEq/L had LR+ for lactate>2 of 3.670 (2.630-5.122), lactate>4 of 7.019 (5.310-9.278), and mortality of 2.768 (1.922-3.986). Anion gap predicted mortality similar to lactate>2 [LR+ 2.768 vs. LR+ 2.09; LR- 0.823 vs. 0.447]. Anion gap and serum bicarbonate poorly predict changes in lactate and mortality. In resource-limited settings where lactate is unavailable, anion gap ≥20mEq/L may be used to further risk-stratify patients for ongoing sepsis care, but lactate remains a preferred biomarker. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Metabotypes with properly functioning mitochondria and anti-inflammation predict extended productive life span in dairy cows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huber, K.; Dänicke, S.; Rehage, J.; Sauerwein, H.; Otto, W.; Rolle-Kampczyk, U.; von Bergen, M.

    2016-01-01

    The failure to adapt metabolism to the homeorhetic demands of lactation is considered as a main factor in reducing the productive life span of dairy cows. The so far defined markers of production performance and metabolic health in dairy cows do not predict the length of productive life span satisfyingly. This study aimed to identify novel pathways and biomarkers related to productive life in dairy cows by means of (targeted) metabolomics. In a longitudinal study from 42 days before up to 100 days after parturition, we identified metabolites such as long-chain acylcarnitines and biogenic amines associated with extended productive life spans. These metabolites are mainly secreted by the liver and depend on the functionality of hepatic mitochondria. The concentrations of biogenic amines and some acylcarnitines differed already before the onset of lactation thus indicating their predictive potential for continuation or early ending of productive life. PMID:27089826

  20. Novel in vitro systems for prediction of veterinary drug residues in ovine milk and dairy products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    González-Lobato, L; Real, R; Herrero, D; de la Fuente, A; Prieto, J G; Marqués, M M; Alvarez, A I; Merino, G

    2014-01-01

    A new in vitro tool was developed for the identification of veterinary substrates of the main drug transporter in the mammary gland. These drugs have a much higher chance of being concentrated into ovine milk and thus should be detectable in dairy products. Complementarily, a cell model for the identification of compounds that can inhibit the secretion of drugs into ovine milk, and thus reduce milk residues, was also generated. The ATP-binding cassette transporter G2 (ABCG2) is responsible for the concentration of its substrates into milk. The need to predict potential drug residues in ruminant milk has prompted the development of in vitro cell models over-expressing ABCG2 for these species to detect veterinary drugs that interact with this transporter. Using these models, several substrates for bovine and caprine ABCG2 have been found, and differences in activity between species have been reported. However, despite being of great toxicological relevance, no suitable in vitro model to predict substrates of ovine ABCG2 was available. New MDCKII and MEF3.8 cell models over-expressing ovine ABCG2 were generated for the identification of substrates and inhibitors of ovine ABCG2. Five widely used veterinary antibiotics (marbofloxacin, orbifloxacin, sarafloxacin, danofloxacin and difloxacin) were discovered as new substrates of ovine ABCG2. These results were confirmed for the bovine transporter and its Y581S variant using previously generated cell models. In addition, the avermectin doramectin was described as a new inhibitor of ruminant ABCG2. This new rapid assay to identify veterinary drugs that can be concentrated into ovine milk will potentially improve detection and monitoring of veterinary drug residues in ovine milk and dairy products.

  1. Cocrystal Solubility Product Prediction Using an in combo Model and Simulations to Improve Design of Experiments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avdeef, Alex

    2018-02-02

    To predict the aqueous solubility product (K sp ) and the solubility enhancement of cocrystals (CCs), using an approach based on measured drug and coformer intrinsic solubility (S 0 API , S 0 cof ), combined with in silico H-bond descriptors. A regression model was constructed, assuming that the concentration of the uncharged drug (API) can be nearly equated to drug intrinsic solubility (S 0 API ) and that the concentration of the uncharged coformer can be estimated from a linear combination of the log of the coformer intrinsic solubility, S 0 cof , plus in silico H-bond descriptors (Abraham acidities, α, and basicities, β). The optimal model found for n:1 CCs (-log 10 form) is pK sp  = 1.12 n pS 0 API  + 1.07 pS 0 cof  + 1.01 + 0.74 α API ·β cof  - 0.61 β API ; r 2  = 0.95, SD = 0.62, N = 38. In illustrative CC systems with unknown K sp , predicted K sp was used in simulation of speciation-pH profiles. The extent and pH dependence of solubility enhancement due to CC formation were examined. Suggestions to improve assay design were made. The predicted CC K sp can be used to simulate pH-dependent solution characteristics of saturated systems containing CCs, with the aim of ranking the selection of coformers, and of optimizing the design of experiments.

  2. Reliability prediction for evolutionary product in the conceptual design phase using neural network-based fuzzy synthetic assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yu; Huang, Hong-Zhong; Ling, Dan

    2013-03-01

    Reliability prediction plays an important role in product lifecycle management. It has been used to assess various reliability indices (such as reliability, availability and mean time to failure) before a new product is physically built and/or put into use. In this article, a novel approach is proposed to facilitate reliability prediction for evolutionary products during their early design stages. Due to the lack of sufficient data in the conceptual design phase, reliability prediction is not a straightforward task. Taking account of the information from existing similar products and knowledge from domain experts, a neural network-based fuzzy synthetic assessment (FSA) approach is proposed to predict the reliability indices that a new evolutionary product could achieve. The proposed approach takes advantage of the capability of the back-propagation neural network in terms of constructing highly non-linear functional relationship and combines both the data sets from existing similar products and subjective knowledge from domain experts. It is able to reach a more accurate prediction than the conventional FSA method reported in the literature. The effectiveness and advantages of the proposed method are demonstrated via a case study of the fuel injection pump and a comparative study.

  3. The use of productivity index to predict corn yields on restored prime farmland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barnhisel, R.I.; Hower, J.M.

    1994-01-01

    A 4-year study was conducted to determine if corn yields could be predicted from a productivity index (PI) derived from physical and chemical properties of soil, including bulk density, cone penetrometer resistance, water-holding capacity, texture, pH, and other soil fertility factors. In the studies, correlation coefficients (r) between PI and yield varied from near 0 to 0.76 from one field or mining method to another. Such a wide range in values of r may be largely attributed to sampling variation over a short distance, whereas corn plants can explore a larger volume of soil thus compensating for poor physical conditions that by chance was collected to represent sampling points within a field. The site from which the highest r value was obtained had been planted to soybeans prior to planting corn. This area did not have the lowest bulk density nor did it have the highest corn yield, but it was the treatment that the model most nearly predicted the yield of corn. Bulk densities varied over time and in general decreased, but the correlation with corn yield also decreased. Corn yields may be achieved (i.e., target levels for bond release) even though PI values may indicate remedial treatments were necessary

  4. Using Bayesian methods to predict climate impacts on groundwater availability and agricultural production in Punjab, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russo, T. A.; Devineni, N.; Lall, U.

    2015-12-01

    Lasting success of the Green Revolution in Punjab, India relies on continued availability of local water resources. Supplying primarily rice and wheat for the rest of India, Punjab supports crop irrigation with a canal system and groundwater, which is vastly over-exploited. The detailed data required to physically model future impacts on water supplies agricultural production is not readily available for this region, therefore we use Bayesian methods to estimate hydrologic properties and irrigation requirements for an under-constrained mass balance model. Using measured values of historical precipitation, total canal water delivery, crop yield, and water table elevation, we present a method using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to solve for a distribution of values for each unknown parameter in a conceptual mass balance model. Due to heterogeneity across the state, and the resolution of input data, we estimate model parameters at the district-scale using spatial pooling. The resulting model is used to predict the impact of precipitation change scenarios on groundwater availability under multiple cropping options. Predicted groundwater declines vary across the state, suggesting that crop selection and water management strategies should be determined at a local scale. This computational method can be applied in data-scarce regions across the world, where water resource management is required to resolve competition between food security and available resources in a changing climate.

  5. Permeability surface area product analysis in malignant brain edema prediction - A pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volny, O; Cimflova, P; Lee, T-Y; Menon, B K; d'Esterre, C D

    2017-05-15

    Using an extended CT perfusion acquisition (150s), we sought to determine the association between perfusion parameters and malignant edema after ischemic stroke. Patients (from prospective study PROVE-IT, NCT02184936) with terminal internal carotid artery±proximal middle cerebral occlusion were involved. CTA was assessed for clot location and status of leptomeningeal collaterals. The following CTP parameters were calculated within the ischemic territory and contralaterally: permeability surface area product (PS), cerebral blood flow (CBF) and cerebral blood volume (CBV). PS was calculated using the adiabatic approximation to the Johnson and Wilson model. Outcome was evaluated by midline shift and infarction volume on follow-up imaging. Of 200 patients enrolled, 7 patients (3.5%) had midline shift≥5mm (2 excluded for poor-quality scans). Five patients with midline shift and 5 matched controls were analysed. There was no significant difference in mean PS, CBF and CBV within the ischemic territory between the two groups. A CBV threshold of 1.7ml/100g had the highest AUC=0.72, 95% CI=0.54-0.90 for early midline shift prediction, sensitivity and specificity were 0.83 and 0.67 respectively. Our preliminary results did not show significant differences in permeability surface area analysis if analysed for complete ischemic region. CBV parameter had the highest accuracy and there was a trend for the mean PS values for midline shift prediction. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Expressing death risk as condensed life experience and death intensity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ioannidis, John P A

    2013-08-01

    Some risk exposures, including many medical and surgical procedures, typically carry hazards of death that are difficult to convey and appreciate in absolute terms. I propose presenting the death risk as a condensed life experience (i.e., the equivalent amount of life T that would carry the same cumulative mortality hazard for a person of the same age and sex based on life tables). For example, if the risk of death during an elective 1-hour procedure is 0.01%, and same-age and same-sex people have a 0.01% death risk over 1 month, one can inform the patient that "this procedure carries the same death risk as living 1 month of normal life." Comparative standards from other risky activities or from a person with the same disease at the same stage and same predictive profile could also be used. A complementary metric that may be useful to consider is the death intensity. The death intensity λ is the hazard function that shows the fold-risk estimate of dying compared with the reference person. The death intensity can vary substantially for different phases of the event, operation, or procedure (e.g., intraoperative, early postoperative, late postoperative), and this variability may also be useful to convey. T will vary depending on the time window for which it is computed. I present examples for calculating T and λ using literature data on accidents, ascent to Mount Everest, and medical and surgical procedures.

  7. Review of Thawing Time Prediction Models Depending on Process Conditions and Product Characteristics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Walter E. L. Spiess

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Determining thawing times of frozen foods is a challenging problem as the thermophysical properties of the product change during thawing. A number of calculation models and solutions have been developed. The proposed solutions range from relatively simple analytical equations based on a number of assumptions to a group of empirical approaches that sometimes require complex calculations. In this paper analytical, empirical and graphical models are presented and critically reviewed. The conditions of solution, limitations and possible applications of the models are discussed. The graphical and semi-graphical models are derived from numerical methods. Using the numerical methods is not always possible as running calculations takes time, whereas the specialized software and equipment are not always cheap. For these reasons, the application of analytical-empirical models is more useful for engineering. It is demonstrated that there is no simple, accurate and feasible analytical method for thawing time prediction. Consequently, simplified methods are needed for thawing time estimation of agricultural and food products. The review reveals the need for further improvement of the existing solutions or development of new ones that will enable accurate determination of thawing time within a wide range of practical conditions of heat transfer during processing.

  8. Predictive analytics as an essential mechanism for situational awareness at the ATLAS Production System

    CERN Document Server

    Titov, Mikhail; The ATLAS collaboration

    2017-01-01

    The workflow management process should be under the control of the certain service that is able to forecast the processing time dynamically according to the status of the processing environment and workflow itself, and to react immediately on any abnormal behaviour of the execution process. Such situational awareness analytic service would provide the possibility to monitor the execution process, to detect the source of any malfunction, and to optimize the management process. The stated service for the second generation of the ATLAS Production System (ProdSys2, an automated scheduling system) is based on predictive analytics approach to estimate the duration of the data processings (in terms of ProdSys2, it is task and chain of tasks) with later usage in decision making processes. Machine learning ensemble methods are chosen to estimate completion time (i.e., “Time To Complete”, TTC) for every (production) task and chain of tasks, thus “abnormal” task processing times would warn about possible failure...

  9. Environmental productivity predicts migration, demographic, and linguistic patterns in prehistoric California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Codding, Brian F; Jones, Terry L

    2013-09-03

    Global patterns of ethnolinguistic diversity vary tremendously. Some regions show very little variation even across vast expanses, whereas others exhibit dense mosaics of different languages spoken alongside one another. Compared with the rest of Native North America, prehistoric California exemplified the latter. Decades of linguistic, genetic, and archaeological research have produced detailed accounts of the migrations that aggregated to build California's diverse ethnolinguistic mosaic, but there have been few have attempts to explain the process underpinning these migrations and why such a mosaic did not develop elsewhere. Here we show that environmental productivity predicts both the order of migration events and the population density recorded at contact. The earliest colonizers occupied the most suitable habitats along the coast, whereas subsequent Mid-Late Holocene migrants settled in more marginal habitats. Other Late Holocene patterns diverge from this trend, reflecting altered dynamics linked to food storage and increased sedentism. Through repeated migration events, incoming populations replaced resident populations occurring at lower densities in lower-productivity habitats, thereby resulting in the fragmentation of earlier groups and the development of one of the most diverse ethnolinguistic patterns in the Americas. Such a process may account for the distribution of ethnolinguistic diversity worldwide.

  10. Usefulness of right ventricular fractional area change to predict death, heart failure, and stroke following myocardial infarction (from the VALIANT ECHO Study)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Anavekar, Nagesh S; Skali, Hicham; Bourgoun, Mikhail

    2008-01-01

    Severe right ventricular dysfunction independent of left ventricular ejection fraction increased the risk of heart failure (HF) and death after myocardial infarction (MI). The association between right ventricular function and other clinical outcomes after MI was less clear. Two...... right ventricular function was measured in 522 patients using right ventricular fractional area change (RVFAC) and was related to clinical outcomes. Mean RVFAC was 41.9 +/- 4.3% (range 19.2% to 53.1%). The incidence of clinical events increased with decreasing RVFAC. After adjusting for 11 covariates...... (HR 1.48, 95% CI 1.17 to 1.86), and stroke (HR 2.95, 95% CI 1.76 to 4.95), but not recurrent MI. Each 5% decrease in baseline RVFAC was associated with a 1.53 (95% CI 1.24 to 1.88) increased risk of fatal and nonfatal CV outcomes. In conclusion, decreased right ventricular systolic function is a major...

  11. Sudden death in eating disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jáuregui-Garrido, Beatriz; Jáuregui-Lobera, Ignacio

    2012-01-01

    Eating disorders are usually associated with an increased risk of premature death with a wide range of rates and causes of mortality. "Sudden death" has been defined as the abrupt and unexpected occurrence of fatality for which no satisfactory explanation of the cause can be ascertained. In many cases of sudden death, autopsies do not clarify the main cause. Cardiovascular complications are usually involved in these deaths. The purpose of this review was to report an update of the existing literature data on the main findings with respect to sudden death in eating disorders by means of a search conducted in PubMed. The most relevant conclusion of this review seems to be that the main causes of sudden death in eating disorders are those related to cardiovascular complications. The predictive value of the increased QT interval dispersion as a marker of sudden acute ventricular arrhythmia and death has been demonstrated. Eating disorder patients with severe cardiovascular symptoms should be hospitalized. In general, with respect to sudden death in eating disorders, some findings (eg, long-term eating disorders, chronic hypokalemia, chronically low plasma albumin, and QT intervals >600 milliseconds) must be taken into account, and it must be highlighted that during refeeding, the adverse effects of hypophosphatemia include cardiac failure. Monitoring vital signs and performing electrocardiograms and serial measurements of plasma potassium are relevant during the treatment of eating disorder patients.

  12. Troponin T, N-terminal pro natriuretic peptide and a patent ductus arteriosus scoring system predict death before discharge or neurodevelopmental outcome at 2 years in preterm infants.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    El-Khuffash, Afif F

    2011-03-01

    There is little consensus regarding the use of echocardiography in patent ductus arteriosus (PDA) treatment in preterm infants. The use of troponin T (cTnT) and N-terminal Pro-BNP (NTpBNP) in combination with echocardiography assessment may facilitate the development of a superior predictive model.

  13. Energy Production Calculations with Field Flow Models and Windspeed Predictions with Statistical Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rüstemoǧlu, Sevinç; Barutçu, Burak; Sibel Menteş, Å.ž.

    2010-05-01

    The continuous usage of fossil fuels as primary energy source is the reason of the emission of CO and powerless economy of the country affected by the great flactuations in the unit price of energy sources. In recent years, developments in wind energy sector and the supporting new renewable energy policies of the countries allow the new wind farm owners and the firms who expect to be an owner to consider and invest on the renewable sources. In this study, the annual production of the turbines with 1.8 kW and 30 kW which are available for Istanbul Technical University in Energy Institute is calculated by Wasp and WindPro Field Flow Models and the wind characteristics of the area are analysed. The meteorological data used in calculation includes the period between 02.March.2000 and 31.May.2004 and is taken from the meteorological mast ( ) in Istanbul Technical University's campus area. The measurement data is taken from 2 m and 10 m heights with hourly means. The topography, roughness classes and shelter effects are defined in the models to make accurate extrapolation to the turbine sites. As an advantage, the region is nearly 3.5 km close to the Istanbul Bosphorous but as it can be seen from the Wasp and WindPro Model Results, the Bosphorous effect is interrupted by the new buildings and hight forestry. The shelter effect of these high buildings have a great influence on the wind flow and decrease the high wind energy potential which is produced by the Bosphorous effect. This study, which determines wind characteristics and expected annual production, is important for this Project Site and therefore gains importance before the construction of wind energy system. However, when the system is operating, developing the energy management skills, forecasting the wind speed and direction will become important. At this point, three statistical models which are Kalman Fitler, AR Model and Neural Networks models are used to determine the success of each method for correct

  14. Prediction of the Export and Fate of Global Ocean Net Primary Production: The EXPORTS Science Plan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David A Siegel

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Ocean ecosystems play a critical role in the Earth’s carbon cycle and the quantification of their impacts for both present conditions and for predictions into the future remains one of the greatest challenges in oceanography. The goal of the EXport Processes in the Ocean from Remote Sensing (EXPORTS Science Plan is to develop a predictive understanding of the export and fate of global ocean net primary production (NPP and its implications for present and future climates. The achievement of this goal requires a quantification of the mechanisms that control the export of carbon from the euphotic zone as well as its fate in the underlying twilight zone where some fraction of exported carbon will be sequestered in the ocean’s interior on time scales of months to millennia. Here we present a measurement / synthesis / modeling framework aimed at quantifying the fates of upper ocean NPP and its impacts on the global carbon cycle based upon the EXPORTS Science Plan. The proposed approach will diagnose relationships among the ecological, biogeochemical and physical oceanographic processes that control carbon cycling across a range of ecosystem and carbon cycling states leading to advances in satellite diagnostic and numerical prognostic models. To collect these data, a combination of ship and robotic field sampling, satellite remote sensing and numerical modeling is proposed which enables the sampling of the many pathways of NPP export and fates. This coordinated, process-oriented approach has the potential to foster new insights on ocean carbon cycling that maximizes its societal relevance through the achievement of research goals of many international research agencies and will be a key step towards our understanding of the Earth as an integrated system.

  15. Fibrinogen cleavage products and Toll-like receptor 4 promote the generation of programmed cell death 1 ligand 2-positive dendritic cells in allergic asthma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, Minkyoung; Lee, Jeong-Eun; Lim, Hoyong; Shin, Hyun-Woo; Khalmuratova, Roza; Choi, Garam; Kim, Hyuk Soon; Choi, Wahn Soo; Park, Young-Jun; Shim, Inbo; Kim, Byung-Seok; Kang, Chang-Yuil; Kim, Jae-Ouk; Tanaka, Shinya; Kubo, Masato; Chung, Yeonseok

    2017-10-14

    Inhaled protease allergens preferentially trigger T H 2-mediated inflammation in allergic asthma. The role of dendritic cells (DCs) on induction of T H 2 cell responses in allergic asthma has been well documented; however, the mechanism by which protease allergens induce T H 2-favorable DCs in the airway remains unclear. We sought to determine a subset of DCs responsible for T H 2 cell responses in allergic asthma and the mechanism by which protease allergens induce the DC subset in the airway. Mice were challenged intranasally with protease allergens or fibrinogen cleavage products (FCPs) to induce allergic airway inflammation. DCs isolated from mediastinal lymph nodes were analyzed for surface phenotype and T-cell stimulatory function. Anti-Thy1.2 and Mas-TRECK mice were used to deplete innate lymphoid cells and mast cells, respectively. Adoptive cell transfer, bone marrow DC culture, anti-IL-13, and Toll-like receptor (TLR) 4-deficient mice were used for further mechanistic studies. Protease allergens induced a remarkable accumulation of T H 2-favorable programmed cell death 1 ligand 2 (PD-L2) + DCs in mediastinal lymph nodes, which was significantly abolished in mice depleted of mast cells and, to a lesser extent, innate lymphoid cells. Mechanistically, FCPs generated by protease allergens triggered IL-13 production from wild-type mast cells but not from TLR4-deficient mast cells, which resulted in an increase in the number of PD-L2 + DCs. Intranasal administration of FCPs induced an increase in numbers of PD-L2 + DCs in the airway, which was significantly abolished in TLR4- and mast cell-deficient mice. Injection of IL-13 restored the PD-L2 + DC population in mice lacking mast cells. Our findings unveil the "protease-FCP-TLR4-mast cell-IL-13" axis as a molecular mechanism for generation of T H 2-favorable PD-L2 + DCs in allergic asthma and suggest that targeting the PD-L2 + DC pathway might be effective in suppressing allergic T-cell responses in the airway

  16. Geothermal modelling and geoneutrino flux prediction at JUNO with local heat production data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xi, Y.; Wipperfurth, S. A.; McDonough, W. F.; Sramek, O.; Roskovec, B.; He, J.

    2017-12-01

    Geoneutrinos are mostly electron antineutrinos created from natural radioactive decays in the Earth's interior. Measurement of a geoneutrino flux at near surface detector can lead to a better understanding of the composition of the Earth, inform about chemical layering in the mantle, define the power driving mantle convection and plate tectonics, and reveal the energy supplying the geodynamo. JUNO (Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory) is a 20 kton liquid scintillator detector currently under construction with an expected start date in 2020. Due to its enormous mass, JUNO will detect about 400 geoneutrinos per year, making it an ideal tool to study the Earth. JUNO is located on the passive continental margin of South China, where there is an extensive continental shelf. The continental crust surrounding the JUNO detector is between 26 and 32 km thick and represents the transition between the southern Eurasian continental plate and oceanic plate of the South China Sea.We seek to predict the geoneutrino flux at JUNO prior to data taking and announcement of the particle physics measurement. To do so requires a detail survey of the local lithosphere, as it contributes about 50% of the signal. Previous estimates of the geoneutrino signal at JUNO utilized global crustal models, with no local constraints. Regionally, the area is characterized by extensive lateral and vertical variations in lithology and dominated by Mesozoic granite intrusions, with an average heat production of 6.29 μW/m3. Consequently, at 3 times greater heat production than the globally average upper crust, these granites will generate a higher than average geoneutrino flux at JUNO. To better define the U and Th concentrations in the upper crust, we collected some 300 samples within 50 km of JUNO. By combining chemical data obtained from these samples with data for crustal structures defined by local geophysical studies, we will construct a detailed 3D geothermal model of the region. Our

  17. Analysis of the High-Frequency Content in Human QRS Complexes by the Continuous Wavelet Transform: An Automatized Analysis for the Prediction of Sudden Cardiac Death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García Iglesias, Daniel; Roqueñi Gutiérrez, Nieves; De Cos, Francisco Javier; Calvo, David

    2018-02-12

    Fragmentation and delayed potentials in the QRS signal of patients have been postulated as risk markers for Sudden Cardiac Death (SCD). The analysis of the high-frequency spectral content may be useful for quantification. Forty-two consecutive patients with prior history of SCD or malignant arrhythmias (patients) where compared with 120 healthy individuals (controls). The QRS complexes were extracted with a modified Pan-Tompkins algorithm and processed with the Continuous Wavelet Transform to analyze the high-frequency content (85-130 Hz). Overall, the power of the high-frequency content was higher in patients compared with controls (170.9 vs. 47.3 10³nV²Hz -1 ; p = 0.007), with a prolonged time to reach the maximal power (68.9 vs. 64.8 ms; p = 0.002). An analysis of the signal intensity (instantaneous average of cumulative power), revealed a distinct function between patients and controls. The total intensity was higher in patients compared with controls (137.1 vs. 39 10³nV²Hz -1 s -1 ; p = 0.001) and the time to reach the maximal intensity was also prolonged (88.7 vs. 82.1 ms; p content of the QRS complexes was distinct between patients at risk of SCD and healthy controls. The wavelet transform is an efficient tool for spectral analysis of the QRS complexes that may contribute to stratification of risk.

  18. NLO electroweak automation and precise predictions for W+ multijet production at the LHC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kallweit, S.; Lindert, J.M.; Maierhöfer, P.; Pozzorini, S.; Schönherr, M.

    2015-01-01

    We present a fully automated implementation of next-to-leading order electroweak (NLO EW) corrections in the OPENLOOPS matrix-element generator combined with the SHERPA and MUNICH Monte Carlo frameworks. The process-independent character of the implemented algorithms opens the door to NLO QCD+EW simulations for a vast range of Standard Model processes, up to high particle multiplicity, at current and future colliders. As a first application, we present NLO QCD+EW predictions for the production of positively charged on-shell W bosons in association with up to three jets at the Large Hadron Collider. At the TeV energy scale, due to the presence of large Sudakov logarithms, EW corrections reach the 20–40% level and play an important role for searches of physics beyond the Standard Model. The dependence of NLO EW effects on the jet multiplicity is investigated in detail, and we find that W+ multijet final states feature genuinely different EW effects as compared to the case of W+1 jet.

  19. Water column productivity and temperature predict coral reef regeneration across the Indo-Pacific.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riegl, B; Glynn, P W; Wieters, E; Purkis, S; d'Angelo, C; Wiedenmann, J

    2015-02-05

    Predicted increases in seawater temperatures accelerate coral reef decline due to mortality by heat-driven coral bleaching. Alteration of the natural nutrient environment of reef corals reduces tolerance of corals to heat and light stress and thus will exacerbate impacts of global warming on reefs. Still, many reefs demonstrate remarkable regeneration from past stress events. This paper investigates the effects of sea surface temperature (SST) and water column productivity on recovery of coral reefs. In 71 Indo-Pacific sites, coral cover changes over the past 1-3 decades correlated negative-exponentially with mean SST, chlorophyll a, and SST rise. At six monitoring sites (Persian/Arabian Gulf, Red Sea, northern and southern Galápagos, Easter Island, Panama), over half of all corals were reefs in the northwest and central Indian Ocean, as well as the central west Pacific, are at highest risk of degradation, and those at high latitudes the least. The model pinpoints regions where coral reefs presently have the best chances for survival. However, reefs best buffered against temperature and nutrient effects are those that current studies suggest to be most at peril from future ocean acidification.

  20. A Robust Statistical Model to Predict the Future Value of the Milk Production of Dairy Cows Using Herd Recording Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Græsbøll, Kaare; Kirkeby, Carsten Thure; Nielsen, Søren Saxmose

    2017-01-01

    of the future value of a dairy cow requires further detailed knowledge of the costs associated with feed, management practices, production systems, and disease. Here, we present a method to predict the future value of the milk production of a dairy cow based on herd recording data only. The method consists......The future value of an individual dairy cow depends greatly on its projected milk yield. In developed countries with developed dairy industry infrastructures, facilities exist to record individual cow production and reproduction outcomes consistently and accurately. Accurate prediction...... of somatic cell count. We conclude that estimates of future average production can be used on a day-to-day basis to rank cows for culling, or can be implemented in simulation models of within-herd disease spread to make operational decisions, such as culling versus treatment. An advantage of the approach...

  1. Global modelling to predict timber production and prices: the GFPM approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph Buongiorno

    2014-01-01

    Timber production and prices are determined by the global demand for forest products, and the capability of producers from many countries to grow and harvest trees, transform them into products and export. The Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) simulates how this global demand and supply of multiple products among many countries determines prices and attendant...

  2. Change of BNP between admission and discharge after ST-elevation myocardial infarction (Killip I) improves risk prediction of heart failure, death, and recurrent myocardial infarction compared to single isolated measurement in addition to the GRACE score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvalho, Luiz Sergio F; Bogniotti, Lauro Afonso C; de Almeida, Osorio Luis Rangel; E Silva, Jose C Quinaglia; Nadruz, Wilson; Coelho, Otavio Rizzi; Sposito, Andrei C

    2018-01-01

    In ST-elevation myocardial infarction, 7-15% of patients admitted as Killip I will develop symptomatic heart failure or decreased ejection fraction. However, available clinical scores do not predict the risk of severe outcomes well, such as heart failure, recurrent myocardial infarction, and sudden death in these Killip I individuals. Therefore, we evaluated whether one vs two measurements of BNP would improve prediction of adverse outcomes in addition to the GRACE score in ST-elevation myocardial infarction/Killip I individuals. Consecutive patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction/Killip I ( n=167) were admitted and followed for 12 months. The GRACE score was calculated and plasma BNP levels were obtained in the first 12 h after symptom onset (D1) and at the fifth day (D5). Fifteen percent of patients admitted as Killip I developed symptomatic heart failure and/or decreased ejection fraction in 12 months. The risk of developing symptomatic heart failure or ejection fraction <40% at 30 days was increased by 8.7-fold (95% confidence interval: 1.10-662, p=0.046) per each 100 pg/dl increase in BNP-change. Both in unadjusted and adjusted Cox-regressions, BNP-change as a continuous variable was associated with incident sudden death/myocardial infarction at 30 days (odds ratio 1.032 per each increase of 10 pg/dl, 95% confidence interval: 1.013-1.052, p<0.001), but BNP-D1 was not. The GRACE score alone showed a moderate C-statistic=0.709 ( p=0.029), but adding BNP-change improved risk discrimination (C-statistic=0.831, p=0.001). Net reclassification confirmed a significant improvement in individual risk prediction by 33.4% (95% confidence interval: 8-61%, p=0.034). However, GRACE +BNP-D1 did not improve risk reclassification at 30 days compared to GRACE ( p=0.8). At 12 months, BNP-change was strongly associated with incident sudden death/myocardial infarction, but not BNP-D1. Only BNP-change following myocardial infarction was associated with poorer short- and

  3. Analysis of the High-Frequency Content in Human QRS Complexes by the Continuous Wavelet Transform: An Automatized Analysis for the Prediction of Sudden Cardiac Death

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel García Iglesias

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Background: Fragmentation and delayed potentials in the QRS signal of patients have been postulated as risk markers for Sudden Cardiac Death (SCD. The analysis of the high-frequency spectral content may be useful for quantification. Methods: Forty-two consecutive patients with prior history of SCD or malignant arrhythmias (patients where compared with 120 healthy individuals (controls. The QRS complexes were extracted with a modified Pan-Tompkins algorithm and processed with the Continuous Wavelet Transform to analyze the high-frequency content (85–130 Hz. Results: Overall, the power of the high-frequency content was higher in patients compared with controls (170.9 vs. 47.3 103nV2Hz−1; p = 0.007, with a prolonged time to reach the maximal power (68.9 vs. 64.8 ms; p = 0.002. An analysis of the signal intensity (instantaneous average of cumulative power, revealed a distinct function between patients and controls. The total intensity was higher in patients compared with controls (137.1 vs. 39 103nV2Hz−1s−1; p = 0.001 and the time to reach the maximal intensity was also prolonged (88.7 vs. 82.1 ms; p < 0.001. Discussion: The high-frequency content of the QRS complexes was distinct between patients at risk of SCD and healthy controls. The wavelet transform is an efficient tool for spectral analysis of the QRS complexes that may contribute to stratification of risk.

  4. Pre-Antiretroviral Therapy Serum Selenium Concentrations Predict WHO Stages 3, 4 or Death but not Virologic Failure Post-Antiretroviral Therapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rupak Shivakoti

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available A case-cohort study, within a multi-country trial of antiretroviral therapy (ART efficacy (Prospective Evaluation of Antiretrovirals in Resource Limited Settings (PEARLS, was conducted to determine if pre-ART serum selenium deficiency is independently associated with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV disease progression after ART initiation. Cases were HIV-1 infected adults with either clinical failure (incident World Health Organization (WHO stage 3, 4 or death by 96 weeks or virologic failure by 24 months. Risk factors for serum selenium deficiency (<85 μg/L pre-ART and its association with outcomes were examined. Median serum selenium concentration was 82.04 μg/L (Interquartile range (IQR: 57.28–99.89 and serum selenium deficiency was 53%, varying widely by country from 0% to 100%. In multivariable models, risk factors for serum selenium deficiency were country, previous tuberculosis, anemia, and elevated C-reactive protein. Serum selenium deficiency was not associated with either clinical failure or virologic failure in multivariable models. However, relative to people in the third quartile (74.86–95.10 μg/L of serum selenium, we observed increased hazards (adjusted hazards ratio (HR: 3.50; 95% confidence intervals (CI: 1.30–9.42 of clinical failure but not virologic failure for people in the highest quartile. If future studies confirm this relationship of high serum selenium with increased clinical failure, a cautious approach to selenium supplementation might be needed, especially in HIV-infected populations with sufficient or unknown levels of selenium.

  5. Numerical prediction of the chemical composition of gas products at biomass combustion and co-combustion in a domestic boiler

    OpenAIRE

    Radomiak Henryk; Bala-Litwiniak Agnieszka; Zajemska Monika; Musiał Dorota

    2017-01-01

    In recent years the numerical modelling of biomass combustion has been successfully applied to determine the combustion mechanism and predict its products. In this study the influence of the addition of waste glycerin in biomass wood pellets on the chemical composition of exhaust gases has been investigated. The pellets have been prepared from spruceand pine wood sawdust without and with addition of waste glycerin. The waste glycerol is a undesirable by-product of biodiesel transesterificatio...

  6. Exploring the Predictive Validity of the Susceptibility to Smoking Construct for Tobacco Cigarettes, Alternative Tobacco Products, and E-Cigarettes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Adam G; Kennedy, Ryan David; Chaurasia, Ashok; Leatherdale, Scott T

    2017-12-06

    Within tobacco prevention programming, it is useful to identify youth that are at risk for experimenting with various tobacco products and e-cigarettes. The susceptibility to smoking construct is a simple method to identify never-smoking students that are less committed to remaining smoke-free. However, the predictive validity of this construct has not been tested within the Canadian context or for the use of other tobacco products and e-cigarettes. This study used a large, longitudinal sample of secondary school students that reported never using tobacco cigarettes and non-current use of alternative tobacco products or e-cigarettes at baseline in Ontario, Canada. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of the susceptibility construct for predicting tobacco cigarette, e-cigarette, cigarillo or little cigar, cigar, hookah, and smokeless tobacco use one and two years after baseline measurement were calculated. At baseline, 29.4% of the sample was susceptible to future tobacco product or e-cigarette use. The sensitivity of the construct ranged from 43.2% (smokeless tobacco) to 59.5% (tobacco cigarettes), the specificity ranged from 70.9% (smokeless tobacco) to 75.9% (tobacco cigarettes), and the positive predictive value ranged from 2.6% (smokeless tobacco) to 32.2% (tobacco cigarettes). Similar values were calculated for each measure of the susceptibility construct. A significant number of youth that did not currently use tobacco products or e-cigarettes at baseline reported using tobacco products and e-cigarettes over a two-year follow-up period. The predictive validity of the susceptibility construct was high and the construct can be used to predict other tobacco product and e-cigarette use among youth. This study presents the predictive validity of the susceptibility construct for the use of tobacco cigarettes among secondary school students in Ontario, Canada. It also presents a novel use of the susceptibility construct for

  7. Computational prediction of dust production in graphite moderated pebble bed reactors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rostamian, Maziar

    The scope of the work reported here, which is the computational study of graphite wear behavior, supports the Nuclear Engineering University Programs project "Experimental Study and Computational Simulations of Key Pebble Bed Thermomechanics Issues for Design and Safety" funded by the US Department of Energy. In this work, modeling and simulating the contact mechanics, as anticipated in a PBR configuration, is carried out for the purpose of assessing the amount of dust generated during a full power operation year of a PBR. A methodology that encompasses finite element analysis (FEA) and micromechanics of wear is developed to address the issue of dust production and its quantification. Particularly, the phenomenon of wear and change of its rate with sliding length is the main focus of this dissertation. This work studies the wear properties of graphite by simulating pebble motion and interactions of a specific type of nuclear grade graphite, IG-11. This study consists of two perspectives: macroscale stress analysis and microscale analysis of wear mechanisms. The first is a set of FEA simulations considering pebble-pebble frictional contact. In these simulations, the mass of generated graphite particulates due to frictional contact is calculated by incorporating FEA results into Archard's equation, which is a linear correlation between wear mass and wear length. However, the experimental data by Johnson, University of Idaho, revealed that the wear rate of graphite decreases with sliding length. This is because the surfaces of the graphite pebbles become smoother over time, which results in a gradual decrease in wear rate. In order to address the change in wear rate, a more detailed analysis of wear mechanisms at room temperature is presented. In this microscale study, the wear behavior of graphite at the asperity level is studied by simulating the contact between asperities of facing surfaces. By introducing the effect of asperity removal on wear rate, a nonlinear

  8. [Prediction of the side-cut product yield of atmospheric/vacuum distillation unit by NIR crude oil rapid assay].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yan-Bin; Hu, Yu-Zhong; Li, Wen-Le; Zhang, Wei-Song; Zhou, Feng; Luo, Zhi

    2014-10-01

    In the present paper, based on the fast evaluation technique of near infrared, a method to predict the yield of atmos- pheric and vacuum line was developed, combined with H/CAMS software. Firstly, the near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy method for rapidly determining the true boiling point of crude oil was developed. With commercially available crude oil spectroscopy da- tabase and experiments test from Guangxi Petrochemical Company, calibration model was established and a topological method was used as the calibration. The model can be employed to predict the true boiling point of crude oil. Secondly, the true boiling point based on NIR rapid assay was converted to the side-cut product yield of atmospheric/vacuum distillation unit by H/CAMS software. The predicted yield and the actual yield of distillation product for naphtha, diesel, wax and residual oil were compared in a 7-month period. The result showed that the NIR rapid crude assay can predict the side-cut product yield accurately. The near infrared analytic method for predicting yield has the advantages of fast analysis, reliable results, and being easy to online operate, and it can provide elementary data for refinery planning optimization and crude oil blending.

  9. Prediction of in vivo drug performance using in vitro dissolution coupled with STELLA: a study with selected drug products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chakraborty, Sumon; Yadav, Lokesh; Aggarwal, Deepika

    2015-01-01

    Prediction of the in vivo performance of the drug product from the in vitro studies is the major challenging job for the pharmaceutical industries. From the current regulatory perspective, biorelevant dissolution media should now be considered as quality control media in order to avoid the risk associated. Physiological based pharmacokinetic models (PBPK) coupled with biorelevant dissolution medium is widely used in simulation and prediction of the plasma drug concentration and in vivo drug performance. The present investigation deals with the evaluation of biorelevant dissolution media as well as in vivo drug performance by PBPK modelling using STELLA® simulation software. The PBPK model was developed using STELLA® using dissolution kinetics, solubility, standard gastrointestinal parameters and post-absorptive disposition parameters. The drug product selected for the present study includes Linezolid film-coated immediate-release tablets (Zyvox), Tacrolimus prolonged-release capsules (Advagraf), Valganciclovir tablets (Valcyte) and Mesalamine controlled-release capsules (Pentasa) each belonging to different biopharmaceutics classification system (BCS). The simulated plasma drug concentration was analyzed and pharmacokinetic parameters were calculated and compared with the reported values. The result from the present investigation indicates that STELLA® when coupled with biorelevant dissolution media can predict the in vivo performance of the drug product with prediction error less than 20% irrespective of the dosage form (immediate release versus modified release) and BCS Classification. Thus, STELLA® can be used for in vivo drug prediction which will be helpful in generic drug development.

  10. What is the Best Model Specification and Earth Observation Product for Predicting Regional Grain Yields in Food Insecure Countries?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davenport, F., IV; Harrison, L.; Shukla, S.; Husak, G. J.; Funk, C. C.

    2017-12-01

    We evaluate the predictive accuracy of an ensemble of empirical model specifications that use earth observation data to predict sub-national grain yields in Mexico and East Africa. Products that are actively used for seasonal drought monitoring are tested as yield predictors. Our research is driven by the fact that East Africa is a region where decisions regarding agricultural production are critical to preventing the loss of economic livelihoods and human life. Regional grain yield forecasts can be used to anticipate availability and prices of key staples, which can turn can inform decisions about targeting humanitarian response such as food aid. Our objective is to identify-for a given region, grain, and time year- what type of model and/or earth observation can most accurately predict end of season yields. We fit a set of models to county level panel data from Mexico, Kenya, Sudan, South Sudan, and Somalia. We then examine out of sample predicative accuracy using various linear and non-linear models that incorporate spatial and time varying coefficients. We compare accuracy within and across models that use predictor variables from remotely sensed measures of precipitation, temperature, soil moisture, and other land surface processes. We also examine at what point in the season a given model or product is most useful for determining predictive accuracy. Finally we compare predictive accuracy across a variety of agricultural regimes including high intensity irrigated commercial agricultural and rain fed subsistence level farms.

  11. Preventing the White Death

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Casper Worm; Jensen, Peter S.; Madsen, Peter

    2017-01-01

    Tuberculosis (TB) is a leading cause of death worldwide and, while treatable by antibiotics since the 1940s, drug resistant strains have emerged. This paper estimates the effects of the establishment of a pre-antibiotic era public health institution, known as a TB dispensary, designed to prevent...... of the dispensaries on productivity as measured by annual income per taxpayer at the city level, digitized from historical tax-assessment records. Overall, the evidence highlights the provision of personalized information on infectious diseases as a cost-effective cause of the historical mortality decline....

  12. Human lymphoma mutations reveal CARD11 as the switch between self-antigen–induced B cell death or proliferation and autoantibody production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeelall, Yogesh S.; Wang, James Q.; Law, Hsei-Di; Domaschenz, Heather; Fung, Herman K.H.; Kallies, Axel; Nutt, Stephen L.

    2012-01-01

    Self-tolerance and immunity are actively acquired in parallel through a poorly understood ability of antigen receptors to switch between signaling death or proliferation of antigen-binding lymphocytes in different contexts. It is not known whether this tolerance-immunity switch requires global rewiring of the signaling apparatus or if it can arise from a single molecular change. By introducing individual CARD11 mutations found in human lymphomas into antigen-activated mature B lymphocytes in mice, we find here that lymphoma-derived CARD11 mutations switch the effect of self-antigen from inducing B cell death into T cell–independent proliferation, Blimp1-mediated plasmablast differentiation, and autoantibody secretion. Our findings demonstrate that regulation of CARD11 signaling is a critical switch governing the decision between death and proliferation in antigen-stimulated mature B cells and that mutations in this switch represent a powerful initiator for aberrant B cell responses in vivo. PMID:23027925

  13. Programmed death-ligand 1 expression correlates with diminished CD8+ T cell infiltration and predicts poor prognosis in anal squamous cell carcinoma patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhao Y

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Yu-Jie Zhao,1 Wei-Peng Sun,2 Jian-Hong Peng,1 Yu-Xiang Deng,1 Yu-Jing Fang,1 Jun Huang,2 Hui-Zhong Zhang,3 De-Sen Wan,1 Jun-Zhong Lin,1,* Zhi-Zhong Pan,1,* 1Department of Colorectal Surgery, State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Medicine, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, 2Department of Colorectal Surgery, The Sixth Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, 3Department of Pathology, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, Guangzhou, People’s Republic of China *These authors contributed equally to this work Objective: Increased expression of programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1 on tumor cells can be found in various malignancies; however, very limited information is known about its role in anal squamous cell carcinoma (ASCC. This study explored PD-L1 expression in ASCC patients and its association with patients’ clinicopathological features, CD8+ T cell infiltration, and prognosis.Methods: Formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tumor samples from 26 patients with ASCC were retrieved. The levels of PD-L1 expression on the membrane of both tumor cells and tumor-infiltrating mononuclear cells (TIMCs were evaluated by immunohistochemistry. CD8+ T cell densities, both within tumors and at the tumor–stromal interface, were also analyzed. Baseline clinicopathological characteristics, human papilloma virus (HPV status, and outcome data correlated with PD-L1-positive staining.Results: PD-L1 expression on tumor cells and TIMCs was observed in 46% and 50% of patients, respectively. Nineteen patients (73% were HPV positive, with 7 showing PD-L1-positive staining on tumor cells and 9 showing PD-L1-positive staining on TIMCs. Increasing CD8+ density within tumors, but not immune stroma, was significantly associated with decreased PD-L1 expression by both tumor cells and TIMCs (P=0.0043 and P=0.0007. Patients with negative PD-L1 expression had significantly better progression-free survival (P=0.038 and P

  14. NNLL-fast: predictions for coloured supersymmetric particle production at the LHC with threshold and Coulomb resummation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beenakker, W.; Borschensky, C.; Krämer, M.; Kulesza, A.; Laenen, E.

    2016-01-01

    We present state-of-the art predictions for the production of supersymmetric squarks and gluinos at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), including soft-gluon resummation up to next-to-next-to-leading logarithmic (NNLL) accuracy, the resummation of Coulomb corrections and the contribution from bound

  15. NNLL-fast : predictions for coloured supersymmetric particle production at the LHC with threshold and Coulomb resummation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beenakker, Wim; Borschensky, Christoph; Krämer, Michael; Kulesza, Anna; Laenen, Eric

    2016-01-01

    We present state-of-the art predictions for the production of supersymmetric squarks and gluinos at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), including soft-gluon resummation up to next-to-next-to-leading logarithmic (NNLL) accuracy, the resummation of Coulomb corrections and the contribution from bound

  16. Predictive Model for Blood Product Use in Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sharif, H.; Ansari, H.Z.; Ashfaq, A.; Rawasia, W.F.; Bano, G.; Hashmi, S.

    2016-01-01

    Objective: To build a clinical predictive model to determine the need for transfusing blood and its products in coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) procedures in South East Asian population. Study Design: Analytical study. Place and Duration of Study: Section of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Aga Khan University Hospital, Karachi, from January 2006 to October 2014. Methodology: Information on pre-, intra- and postoperative variables were collected for all adult patients who underwent on-pump CABG. The patients grouped into those who received blood and its components, and those who did not. A univariate as well as multivariate logistic model was built to determine the predictors of transfusion. Result: A total of 3,550 patients underwent CABG and males were dominant in both groups (75 vs. 93 percent). The transfusion rate was 56.4 percent (n=2001). Age (adjusted OR 1.03, p < 0.001), obesity (1.50, p=0.001), tobacco use (1.29, p=0.001), and male gender (4.51, p < 0.001) found to be a stronger predictor. Among preoperative comorbidities, diabetes (1.20, p=0.016), myocardial infarction (1.22, p=0.009), preoperative creatinine (1.12, p=0.033), and left main vessel disease of > 50 percent (1.49, p < 0.001) were independently associated with the outcome. Compared to elective cases, transfusion rates were high in urgent and emergent cases (OR: 1.93 and 3.36 respectively, p < 0.001 for both). Conclusion: Age, male gender, obesity, tobacco use, diabetes, myocardial infarction, high creatinine, urgent and emergent cases were independent predictors of transfusion in CABG procedure. This model can be utilized for preoperative risk stratification of patients and their management to improve the outcomes. (author)

  17. Prediction of Biomass Production and Nutrient Uptake in Land Application Using Partial Least Squares Regression Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vasileios A. Tzanakakis

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR can integrate a great number of variables and overcome collinearity problems, a fact that makes it suitable for intensive agronomical practices such as land application. In the present study a PLSR model was developed to predict important management goals, including biomass production and nutrient recovery (i.e., nitrogen and phosphorus, associated with treatment potential, environmental impacts, and economic benefits. Effluent loading and a considerable number of soil parameters commonly monitored in effluent irrigated lands were considered as potential predictor variables during the model development. All data were derived from a three year field trial including plantations of four different plant species (Acacia cyanophylla, Eucalyptus camaldulensis, Populus nigra, and Arundo donax, irrigated with pre-treated domestic effluent. PLSR method was very effective despite the small sample size and the wide nature of data set (with many highly correlated inputs and several highly correlated responses. Through PLSR method the number of initial predictor variables was reduced and only several variables were remained and included in the final PLSR model. The important input variables maintained were: Effluent loading, electrical conductivity (EC, available phosphorus (Olsen-P, Na+, Ca2+, Mg2+, K2+, SAR, and NO3−-N. Among these variables, effluent loading, EC, and nitrates had the greater contribution to the final PLSR model. PLSR is highly compatible with intensive agronomical practices such as land application, in which a large number of highly collinear and noisy input variables is monitored to assess plant species performance and to detect impacts on the environment.

  18. Improving runoff prediction through the assimilation of the ASCAT soil moisture product

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brocca, L.; Melone, F.; Moramarco, T.; Wagner, W.; Naeimi, V.; Bartalis, Z.; Hasenauer, S.

    2010-10-01

    The role and the importance of soil moisture for meteorological, agricultural and hydrological applications is widely known. Remote sensing offers the unique capability to monitor soil moisture over large areas (catchment scale) with, nowadays, a temporal resolution suitable for hydrological purposes. However, the accuracy of the remotely sensed soil moisture estimates has to be carefully checked. The validation of these estimates with in-situ measurements is not straightforward due the well-known problems related to the spatial mismatch and the measurement accuracy. The analysis of the effects deriving from assimilating remotely sensed soil moisture data into hydrological or meteorological models could represent a more valuable method to test their reliability. In particular, the assimilation of satellite-derived soil moisture estimates into rainfall-runoff models at different scales and over different regions represents an important scientific and operational issue. In this study, the soil wetness index (SWI) product derived from the Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT) sensor onboard of the Metop satellite was tested. The SWI was firstly compared with the soil moisture temporal pattern derived from a continuous rainfall-runoff model (MISDc) to assess its relationship with modeled data. Then, by using a simple data assimilation technique, the linearly rescaled SWI that matches the range of variability of modelled data (denoted as SWI*) was assimilated into MISDc and the model performance on flood estimation was analyzed. Moreover, three synthetic experiments considering errors on rainfall, model parameters and initial soil wetness conditions were carried out. These experiments allowed to further investigate the SWI potential when uncertain conditions take place. The most significant flood events, which occurred in the period 2000-2009 on five subcatchments of the Upper Tiber River in central Italy, ranging in extension between 100 and 650 km2, were used as case studies

  19. Prediction of biochemical recurrence and prostate cancer specific death in men after radical retropublic prostatectomy: Use of pathology and computer-assisted quantitative nuclear grading information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Masood Ahmed

    Prostate cancer is the most common solid tumour in man. Accordingly, it is expected that 1 in 6 men will experience prostate cancer during their lifetime. Over the past 20 years there have been tremendous advancements in both diagnostic as well as surgical approach to prostate cancer. This has led not only to earlier detection of the disease in its natural history, but also the availability of effective surgical management. Furthermore, the discovery of serum prostate specific antigen as a marker for prostate cancer along with greater acceptance of prostate cancer screening has resulted in an increase in the incidence of prostate cancer in men younger than 50 years of age. This is an age group that has traditionally been associated with a poor prognosis after radical prostatectomy. In addition, despite being able to effectively remove the whole of the gland with limited morbidity, approximately 25% of men after radical prostatectomy will experience biochemical recurrence with time. Moreover, the majority will progress to distant metastases and/or die from prostate cancer. We firstly investigated whether radical prostatectomy is a viable option for men younger than 50 years of age diagnosed with clinically localised prostate cancer. We also determined factors that predict disease recurrence after radical prostatectomy. As many men demonstrate evidence of biochemical recurrence with some showing further progression after radical prostatectomy, we, therefore, investigated whether pathological variables as well as nuclear morphometry could be used to predict those that are at an increased risk for disease recurrence after radical prostatectomy. Our results demonstrated that 1) radical prostatectomy can be safely performed in younger men as it can provide excellent long-term disease-free survival; 2) We determined that there are a number of factors that are associated with an increased risk for disease recurrence after radical prostatectomy; 3) We have constructed a new

  20. Generation of an atlas for commodity chemical production in Escherichia coli and a novel pathway prediction algorithm, GEM-Path

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Campodonico, Miguel A.; Andrews, Barbara A.; Asenjo, Juan A.

    2014-01-01

    , a pathway prediction algorithm that combines direct integration of genome-scale models at each step of the search to reduce the search space does not exist. Previous work (Feist. el. al., 2010) performed a model driven evaluation of the growth coupled production potential for E. call to produce multiple...... native compounds from different feedstocks. In this study, we extended this analysis for non-native compounds by using an integrated approach through heterologous pathway integration and growth coupled metabolite production design. In addition to integration with genome-scale model integration, the GEM...... Path algorithm developed in this work also contains a novel approach to address reaction promiscuity. In total, 245 unique synthetic pathways for 20 large volume compounds were predicted. Host metabolism with these synthetic pathways was then analyzed for feasible growth-coupled production and designs...

  1. Mechanistic prediction of fission product release under normal and accident conditions: key uncertainties that need better resolution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rest, J.

    1983-09-01

    A theoretical model has been used for predicting the behavior of fission gas and volatile fission products (VFPs) in UO 2 -base fuels during steady-state and transient conditions. This model represents an attempt to develop an efficient predictive capability for the full range of possible reactor operating conditions. Fission products released from the fuel are assumed to reach the fuel surface by successively diffusing (via atomic and gas-bubble mobility) from the grains to grain faces and then to the grain edges, where the fission products are released through a network of interconnected tunnels of fission-gas induced and fabricated porosity. The model provides for a multi-region calculation and uses only one size class to characterize a distribution of fission gas bubbles

  2. Advanced MRI assessment to predict benefit of anti-programmed cell death 1 protein immunotherapy response in patients with recurrent glioblastoma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Qin, Lei [Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Department of Imaging, Boston, MA (United States); Harvard Medical School, Department of Radiology, Boston, MA (United States); Li, Xiang; Qu, Jinrong [Affiliated Cancer Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Department of Radiology, Zhengzhou, Henan (China); Brigham and Women' s Hospital, Department of Radiology, Boston, MA (United States); Stroiney, Amanda [Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Department of Imaging, Boston, MA (United States); Northeastern University, Department of Behavioral Neuroscience, College of Sciences, Boston, MA (United States); Helgager, Jeffrey [Brigham and Women' s Hospital, Department of Pathology, Boston, MA (United States); Reardon, David A. [Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, CenterforNeuro-Oncology, Boston, MA (United States); Department of Medicine, Boston, MA (United States); Young, Geoffrey S. [Harvard Medical School, Department of Radiology, Boston, MA (United States); Brigham and Women' s Hospital, Department of Radiology, Boston, MA (United States)

    2017-02-15

    We describe the imaging findings encountered in GBM patients receiving immune checkpoint blockade and assess the potential of quantitative MRI biomarkers to differentiate patients who derive therapeutic benefit from those who do not. A retrospective analysis was performed on longitudinal MRIs obtained on recurrent GBM patients enrolled on clinical trials. Among 10 patients with analyzable data, bidirectional diameters were measured on contrast enhanced T1 (pGd-T1WI) and volumes of interest (VOI) representing measurable abnormality suggestive of tumor were selected on pGdT1WI (pGdT1 VOI), FLAIR-T2WI (FLAIR VOI), and ADC maps. Intermediate ADC (IADC) VOI represented voxels within the FLAIR VOI having ADC in the range of highly cellular tumor (0.7-1.1 x 10{sup -3} mm{sup 2}/s) (IADC VOI). Therapeutic benefit was determined by tissue pathology and survival on trial. IADC VOI, pGdT1 VOI, FLAIR VOI, and RANO assessment results were correlated with patient benefit. Five patients were deemed to have received therapeutic benefit and the other five patients did not. The average time on trial for the benefit group was 194 days, as compared to 81 days for the no benefit group. IADC VOI correlated well with the presence or absence of clinical benefit in 10 patients. Furthermore, pGd VOI, FLAIR VOI, and RANO assessment correlated less well with response. MRI reveals an initial increase in volumes of abnormal tissue with contrast enhancement, edema, and intermediate ADC suggesting hypercellularity within the first 0-6 months of immunotherapy. Subsequent stabilization and improvement in IADC VOI appear to better predict ultimate therapeutic benefit from these agents than conventional imaging. (orig.)

  3. Tic Tac TOE: Effects of Predictability and Importance on Acoustic Prominence in Language Production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Duane G.; Arnold, Jennifer E.; Tanenhaus, Michael K.

    2008-01-01

    Importance and predictability each have been argued to contribute to acoustic prominence. To investigate whether these factors are independent or two aspects of the same phenomenon, naive participants played a verbal variant of Tic Tac Toe. Both importance and predictability contributed independently to the acoustic prominence of a word, but in…

  4. Influence of ensemble geostatistics on production history matching and prediction at new wells

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peters, E.; Leeuwenburgh, O.; Hanea, R.G.

    2008-01-01

    Automatic history matching techniques such as the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) have been shown to provide reliable results for matching and prediction at existing wells. It is much less clear if the prediction outside of existing wells improves as a result of history matching. The amount of

  5. Religious characteristics and the death penalty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Monica K; Hayward, R David

    2008-04-01

    Using one mock trial scenario, this study investigated whether religious and demographic factors were related to death penalty attitudes and sentencing verdicts. Those who favored the death penalty differed from those who had doubts about the penalty in gender, affiliation, fundamentalism, evangelism, literal Biblical interpretism, beliefs about God's attitudes toward murders, and perceptions of how their religious groups felt about the death penalty. These relationships generally held after mock jurors were death qualified. Gender, fundamentalism, literal interpretism, beliefs about God's death penalty position, and perceptions of how one's religious group felt about the death penalty predicted death penalty sentencing verdicts. Future research could determine whether using peremptory challenges to exclude potential jurors based on religion can help lawyers choose a more favorable jury.

  6. Prediction of Peromyscus maniculatus (deer mouse) population dynamics in Montana, USA, using satellite-driven vegetation productivity and weather data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loehman, Rachel A; Elias, Joran; Douglass, Richard J; Kuenzi, Amy J; Mills, James N; Wagoner, Kent

    2012-04-01

    Deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus) are the main reservoir host for Sin Nombre virus, the primary etiologic agent of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome in North America. Sequential changes in weather and plant productivity (trophic cascades) have been noted as likely catalysts of deer mouse population irruptions, and monitoring and modeling of these phenomena may allow for development of early-warning systems for disease risk. Relationships among weather variables, satellite-derived vegetation productivity, and deer mouse populations were examined for a grassland site east of the Continental Divide and a sage-steppe site west of the Continental Divide in Montana, USA. We acquired monthly deer mouse population data for mid-1994 through 2007 from long-term study sites maintained for monitoring changes in hantavirus reservoir populations, and we compared these with monthly bioclimatology data from the same period and gross primary productivity data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer sensor for 2000-06. We used the Random Forests statistical learning technique to fit a series of predictive models based on temperature, precipitation, and vegetation productivity variables. Although we attempted several iterations of models, including incorporating lag effects and classifying rodent density by seasonal thresholds, our results showed no ability to predict rodent populations using vegetation productivity or weather data. We concluded that trophic cascade connections to rodent population levels may be weaker than originally supposed, may be specific to only certain climatic regions, or may not be detectable using remotely sensed vegetation productivity measures, although weather patterns and vegetation dynamics were positively correlated.

  7. Early do-not-resuscitate orders in intracerebral haemorrhage; frequency and predictive value for death and functional outcome. A retrospective cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brizzi Marco

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Introduction In former studies from North America early Do-Not–Resuscitate orders (DNR orders in patients with intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH had negative prognostic impact on mortality. The influence of DNR orders on functional outcome and whether DNR orders are grounded on relevant patient characteristics is unknown. We aimed to determine the frequency and predictive factors of DNR-orders and its association to prognosis, in ICH patients, in Scandinavia. Methods In 197 consecutive ICH patients admitted to Skåne University Hospital, Malmö, Sweden, between January 2007 and June 2009, information of the presence of DNR orders within 48 hours, clinical and radiological characteristics was retrieved by review of patient medical journal and computed tomography scans. Determinants of DNR-orders, one-month case fatality and bad functional outcome (modified Rankin Scale, grade 4–6 were assessed by logistic regression analysis. Results DNR orders were made in 41% of the cases. After adjustment for confounding factors, age ≥ 75 years (Odds Ratio (95% confidence interval 4.2(1.8-9.6, former stroke (5.1(1.9-3.1, Reaction Level Scale grade 2–3 and 4 (7.0(2.8-17.5 and (4.1(1.2-13.5, respectively and intraventricular haemorrhage (3.8(1.6-9.4 were independent determinants of early DNR orders. Independent predictors of one-month case fatality was age ≥ 75 years (3.7(1.4-9.6 volume ≥ 30 ml (3.5(1.3-9.6 and DNR orders (3.5(1.5-8.6. Seizure (6.0(1.04-34.2 and brain stem hemorrhage (8.0(1.1-58.4 were related to bad functional outcome, whereas early DNR order was not (3.5(0.99-12.7. Conclusions Well known prognostic factors are determinants for DNR orders, however DNR orders are independently related to one-month case fatality. In addition to improvements of the local routines, we welcome a change of attitude with an enhanced awareness of the definition of, and a more careful approach with respect to DNR orders.

  8. An in vitro Method for Predicting Inhalation Toxicity of Impregnation Spray Products

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørli, Jorid B.; Hansen, Jitka S.; Nørgaard, Asger Wisti

    2015-01-01

    Impregnation spray products are used for making surfaces water and dirt repellent. The products are composed of one or more active film-forming components dissolved or suspended in an appropriate solvent mixture. Exposure to impregnation spray products may cause respiratory distress and new cases...

  9. Benefits from Below: Silicon Supplementation Maintains Legume Productivity under Predicted Climate Change Scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Scott N; Ryalls, James M W; Gherlenda, Andrew N; Frew, Adam; Hartley, Susan E

    2018-01-01

    Many studies demonstrate that elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations (eCO 2 ) can promote root nodulation and biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) in legumes such as lucerne ( Medicago sativa ). But when elevated temperature (eT) conditions are applied in tandem with eCO 2 , a more realistic scenario for future climate change, the positive effects of eCO 2 on nodulation and BNF in M. sativa are often much reduced. Silicon (Si) supplementation of M. sativa has also been reported to promote root nodulation and BNF, so could potentially restore the positive effects of eCO 2 under eT. Increased nitrogen availability, however, could also increase host suitability for aphid pests, potentially negating any benefit. We applied eCO 2 (+240 ppm) and eT (+4°C), separately and in combination, to M. sativa growing in Si supplemented (Si+) and un-supplemented soil (Si-) to determine whether Si moderated the effects of eCO 2 and eT. Plants were either inoculated with the aphid Acyrthosiphon pisum or insect-free. In Si- soils, eCO 2 stimulated plant growth by 67% and nodulation by 42%, respectively, whereas eT reduced these parameters by 26 and 48%, respectively. Aphids broadly mirrored these effects on Si- plants, increasing colonization rates under eCO 2 and performing much worse (reduced abundance and colonization) under eT when compared to ambient conditions, confirming our hypothesized link between root nodulation, plant growth, and pest performance. Examined across all CO 2 and temperature regimes, Si supplementation promoted plant growth (+93%), and root nodulation (+50%). A. pisum abundance declined sharply under eT conditions and was largely unaffected by Si supplementation. In conclusion, supplementing M. sativa with Si had consistent positive effects on plant growth and nodulation under different CO 2 and temperature scenarios. These findings offer potential for using Si supplementation to maintain legume productivity under predicted climate change scenarios

  10. Benefits from Below: Silicon Supplementation Maintains Legume Productivity under Predicted Climate Change Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Scott N. Johnson

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Many studies demonstrate that elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations (eCO2 can promote root nodulation and biological nitrogen fixation (BNF in legumes such as lucerne (Medicago sativa. But when elevated temperature (eT conditions are applied in tandem with eCO2, a more realistic scenario for future climate change, the positive effects of eCO2 on nodulation and BNF in M. sativa are often much reduced. Silicon (Si supplementation of M. sativa has also been reported to promote root nodulation and BNF, so could potentially restore the positive effects of eCO2 under eT. Increased nitrogen availability, however, could also increase host suitability for aphid pests, potentially negating any benefit. We applied eCO2 (+240 ppm and eT (+4°C, separately and in combination, to M. sativa growing in Si supplemented (Si+ and un-supplemented soil (Si- to determine whether Si moderated the effects of eCO2 and eT. Plants were either inoculated with the aphid Acyrthosiphon pisum or insect-free. In Si- soils, eCO2 stimulated plant growth by 67% and nodulation by 42%, respectively, whereas eT reduced these parameters by 26 and 48%, respectively. Aphids broadly mirrored these effects on Si- plants, increasing colonization rates under eCO2 and performing much worse (reduced abundance and colonization under eT when compared to ambient conditions, confirming our hypothesized link between root nodulation, plant growth, and pest performance. Examined across all CO2 and temperature regimes, Si supplementation promoted plant growth (+93%, and root nodulation (+50%. A. pisum abundance declined sharply under eT conditions and was largely unaffected by Si supplementation. In conclusion, supplementing M. sativa with Si had consistent positive effects on plant growth and nodulation under different CO2 and temperature scenarios. These findings offer potential for using Si supplementation to maintain legume productivity under predicted climate change scenarios

  11. Improving runoff prediction through the assimilation of the ASCAT soil moisture product

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Brocca

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available The role and the importance of soil moisture for meteorological, agricultural and hydrological applications is widely known. Remote sensing offers the unique capability to monitor soil moisture over large areas (catchment scale with, nowadays, a temporal resolution suitable for hydrological purposes. However, the accuracy of the remotely sensed soil moisture estimates has to be carefully checked. The validation of these estimates with in-situ measurements is not straightforward due the well-known problems related to the spatial mismatch and the measurement accuracy. The analysis of the effects deriving from assimilating remotely sensed soil moisture data into hydrological or meteorological models could represent a more valuable method to test their reliability. In particular, the assimilation of satellite-derived soil moisture estimates into rainfall-runoff models at different scales and over different regions represents an important scientific and operational issue.

    In this study, the soil wetness index (SWI product derived from the Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT sensor onboard of the Metop satellite was tested. The SWI was firstly compared with the soil moisture temporal pattern derived from a continuous rainfall-runoff model (MISDc to assess its relationship with modeled data. Then, by using a simple data assimilation technique, the linearly rescaled SWI that matches the range of variability of modelled data (denoted as SWI* was assimilated into MISDc and the model performance on flood estimation was analyzed. Moreover, three synthetic experiments considering errors on rainfall, model parameters and initial soil wetness conditions were carried out. These experiments allowed to further investigate the SWI potential when uncertain conditions take place. The most significant flood events, which occurred in the period 2000–2009 on five subcatchments of the Upper Tiber River in central Italy, ranging in extension between 100 and 650 km

  12. Development of a model for predicting the dry matter production of mulberry [Morus alba] based on meteorological factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fukui, K.; Ito, D.

    1999-01-01

    It is necessary to predict mulberry growth and yield precisely at any time during the growing period, since mulberry trees are cut anytime along with the increase of the frequency of silkworm rearing per year. Therefore, in this study, attempts were made to develop a model to predict the dry matter production in mulberry fields with standard density with the cooperation of the prefectural experimental stations of Ibaraki, Tochigi, Gunma, Saitama, Tokyo and Gifu. To construct the model, we conducted three experiments. In the first year, we estimated the dry weight of mulberry new shoots based on the length and base width. Logarithm of leaf dry weight of a new shoot was regressed linearly on the logarithm of the product of length and base width. Stem dry weight was estimated with a linear regression of the logarithm on the logarithm of the product of length and base square width. In the next year, we evaluated the maximal effective radiation (Smax) of mulberry, over which mulberry cannot use radiation to produce dry matter. This experiment included shaded and control (non-shaded) plots, and the difference between these plots was analyzed. Shading treatment decreased the dry matter production, but did not affect the radiation conversion efficiency. Shoot dry matter production increased almost proportionally with intercepted radiation except for the later growth periods. Therefore, no Smax was revealed in mulberry fields with standard density. The effect of temperature and growth stage on the radiation conversion efficiency was investigated last year. Relation of temperature and radiation conversion efficiency was not clear for shoot dry matter production. However, there was a positive relation for stem dry mater production. Although the efficiency decreased with mulberry growth for leaf dry matter production, it increased at the early growth stage and decreased at the late stage for stem dry matter production

  13. Sudden death in eating disorders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jáuregui-Garrido B

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Beatriz Jáuregui-Garrido1, Ignacio Jáuregui-Lobera2,31Department of Cardiology, University Hospital Virgen del Rocío, 2Behavioral Sciences Institute, 3Pablo de Olavide University, Seville, SpainAbstract: Eating disorders are usually associated with an increased risk of premature death with a wide range of rates and causes of mortality. “Sudden death” has been defined as the abrupt and unexpected occurrence of fatality for which no satisfactory explanation of the cause can be ascertained. In many cases of sudden death, autopsies do not clarify the main cause. Cardiovascular complications are usually involved in these deaths. The purpose of this review was to report an update of the existing literature data on the main findings with respect to sudden death in eating disorders by means of a search conducted in PubMed. The most relevant conclusion of this review seems to be that the main causes of sudden death in eating disorders are those related to cardiovascular complications. The predictive value of the increased QT interval dispersion as a marker of sudden acute ventricular arrhythmia and death has been demonstrated. Eating disorder patients with severe cardiovascular symptoms should be hospitalized. In general, with respect to sudden death in eating disorders, some findings (eg, long-term eating disorders, chronic hypokalemia, chronically low plasma albumin, and QT intervals >600 milliseconds must be taken into account, and it must be highlighted that during refeeding, the adverse effects of hypophosphatemia include cardiac failure. Monitoring vital signs and performing electrocardiograms and serial measurements of plasma potassium are relevant during the treatment of eating disorder patients.Keywords: sudden death, cardiovascular complications, refeeding syndrome, QT interval, hypokalemia

  14. Towards predicting basin-wide invertebrate organic biomass and production in marine sediments from a coastal sea.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brenda J Burd

    Full Text Available Detailed knowledge of environmental conditions is required to understand faunal production in coastal seas with topographic and hydrographic complexity. We test the hypothesis that organic biomass and production of subtidal sediment invertebrates throughout the Strait of Georgia, west coast of Canada, can be predicted by depth, substrate type and organic flux modified to reflect lability and age of material. A basin-wide database of biological, geochemical and flux data was analysed using an empirical production/biomass (P/B model to test this hypothesis. This analysis is unique in the spatial extent and detail of P/B and concurrent environmental measurements over a temperate coastal region. Modified organic flux was the most important predictor of organic biomass and production. Depth and substrate type were secondary modifiers. Between 69-74% of variability in biomass and production could be explained by the combined environmental factors. Organisms <1 mm were important contributors to biomass and production primarily in shallow, sandy sediments, where high P/B values were found despite low organic flux. Low biomass, production, and P/B values were found in the deep, northern basin and mainland fjords, which had silty sediments, low organic flux, low biomass of organisms <1 mm, and dominance by large, slow-growing macrofauna. In the highest organic flux and biomass areas near the Fraser River discharge, production did not increase beyond moderate flux levels. Although highly productive, this area had low P/B. Clearly, food input is insufficient to explain the complex patterns in faunal production revealed here. Additional environmental factors (depth, substrate type and unmeasured factors are important modifiers of these patterns. Potential reasons for the above patterns are explored, along with a discussion of unmeasured factors possibly responsible for unexplained (30% variance in biomass and production. We now have the tools for basin

  15. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) NCEP-Global Forecast System (GFS) Precipitation Forecast Product

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Forecast System (GFS) forecast precipitation data at 37.5km resolution is created at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center for the purpose of near real-time...

  16. Productivity in physical and chemical science predicts the future economic growth of developing countries better than other popular indices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaffe, Klaus; Caicedo, Mario; Manzanares, Marcos; Gil, Mario; Rios, Alfredo; Florez, Astrid; Montoreano, Claudia; Davila, Vicente

    2013-01-01

    Scientific productivity of middle income countries correlates stronger with present and future wealth than indices reflecting its financial, social, economic or technological sophistication. We identify the contribution of the relative productivity of different scientific disciplines in predicting the future economic growth of a nation. Results show that rich and poor countries differ in the relative proportion of their scientific output in the different disciplines: countries with higher relative productivity in basic sciences such as physics and chemistry had the highest economic growth in the following five years compared to countries with a higher relative productivity in applied sciences such as medicine and pharmacy. Results suggest that the economies of middle income countries that focus their academic efforts in selected areas of applied knowledge grow slower than countries which invest in general basic sciences.

  17. Moving Towards Dynamic Ocean Management: How Well Do Modeled Ocean Products Predict Species Distributions?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elizabeth A. Becker

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Species distribution models are now widely used in conservation and management to predict suitable habitat for protected marine species. The primary sources of dynamic habitat data have been in situ and remotely sensed oceanic variables (both are considered “measured data”, but now ocean models can provide historical estimates and forecast predictions of relevant habitat variables such as temperature, salinity, and mixed layer depth. To assess the performance of modeled ocean data in species distribution models, we present a case study for cetaceans that compares models based on output from a data assimilative implementation of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS to those based on measured data. Specifically, we used seven years of cetacean line-transect survey data collected between 1991 and 2009 to develop predictive habitat-based models of cetacean density for 11 species in the California Current Ecosystem. Two different generalized additive models were compared: one built with a full suite of ROMS output and another built with a full suite of measured data. Model performance was assessed using the percentage of explained deviance, root mean squared error (RMSE, observed to predicted density ratios, and visual inspection of predicted and observed distributions. Predicted distribution patterns were similar for models using ROMS output and measured data, and showed good concordance between observed sightings and model predictions. Quantitative measures of predictive ability were also similar between model types, and RMSE values were almost identical. The overall demonstrated success of the ROMS-based models opens new opportunities for dynamic species management and biodiversity monitoring because ROMS output is available in near real time and can be forecast.

  18. Generation of an atlas for commodity chemical production in Escherichia coli and a novel pathway prediction algorithm, GEM-Path.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campodonico, Miguel A; Andrews, Barbara A; Asenjo, Juan A; Palsson, Bernhard O; Feist, Adam M

    2014-09-01

    The production of 75% of the current drug molecules and 35% of all chemicals could be achieved through bioprocessing (Arundel and Sawaya, 2009). To accelerate the transition from a petroleum-based chemical industry to a sustainable bio-based industry, systems metabolic engineering has emerged to computationally design metabolic pathways for chemical production. Although algorithms able to provide specific metabolic interventions and heterologous production pathways are available, a systematic analysis for all possible production routes to commodity chemicals in Escherichia coli is lacking. Furthermore, a pathway prediction algorithm that combines direct integration of genome-scale models at each step of the search to reduce the search space does not exist. Previous work (Feist et al., 2010) performed a model-driven evaluation of the growth-coupled production potential for E. coli to produce multiple native compounds from different feedstocks. In this study, we extended this analysis for non-native compounds by using an integrated approach through heterologous pathway integration and growth-coupled metabolite production design. In addition to integration with genome-scale model integration, the GEM-Path algorithm developed in this work also contains a novel approach to address reaction promiscuity. In total, 245 unique synthetic pathways for 20 large volume compounds were predicted. Host metabolism with these synthetic pathways was then analyzed for feasible growth-coupled production and designs could be identified for 1271 of the 6615 conditions evaluated. This study characterizes the potential for E. coli to produce commodity chemicals, and outlines a generic strain design workflow to design production strains. Copyright © 2014 International Metabolic Engineering Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Enhanced tools for predicting annual stone pine (Pinus pinea L. cone production at tree and forest scale in Inner Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafael Calama

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Aim of the study: To present a new spatiotemporal model for Pinus pinea L. annual cone production with validity for Spanish Northen Plateau and Central Range regions. The new model aims to deal with detected deficiencies in previous models: temporal shortage, overestimation of cone production on recent years, incompatibility with data from National Forest Inventory, difficulty for upscaling and ignorance of the inhibitory process due to resource depletion. Area of study: Spanish Northern Plateau and Central Range regions, covering an area where stone pine occupies more than 90,000 ha Material and methods: Fitting data set include 190 plots and more than 1000 trees were cone production has been annually collected from 1996 to 2014. Models were fitted independently for each region, by means of zero-inflated log normal techniques. Validation of the models was carried out over the annual series of cone production at forest scale. Results: The spatial and temporal factors influencing cone production are similar in both regions, thus the main regional differences in cone yield are related with differences in the phenological timing, the intensity of the influent factors and forest intrinsic conditions. A significant inhibition of floral induction by resource depletion was detected and included into the model. Upscaling the model results in accurate prediction at forest scale. Research highlights: [1] The new model for annual cone production surpass the detected deficiencies of previous models, accurately predicting recent decay in cone production; [2] Regional differences in cone production are due to phenological and seasonal climatic differences rather than to between provenances genetic differences Keywords: zero-inflated models; pine nut; conelet losses; Leptoglossus occidentalis; forest upscaling.

  20. Neural networks for dimensionality reduction of fluorescence spectra and prediction of drinking water disinfection by-products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peleato, Nicolas M; Legge, Raymond L; Andrews, Robert C

    2018-02-21

    The use of fluorescence data coupled with neural networks for improved predictability of drinking water disinfection by-products (DBPs) was investigated. Novel application of autoencoders to process high-dimensional fluorescence data was related to common dimensionality reduction techniques of parallel factors analysis (PARAFAC) and principal component analysis (PCA). The proposed method was assessed based on component interpretability as well as for prediction of organic matter reactivity to formation of DBPs. Optimal prediction accuracies on a validation dataset were observed with an autoencoder-neural network approach or by utilizing the full spectrum without pre-processing. Latent representation by an autoencoder appeared to mitigate overfitting when compared to other methods. Although DBP prediction error was minimized by other pre-processing techniques, PARAFAC yielded interpretable components which resemble fluorescence expected from individual organic fluorophores. Through analysis of the network weights, fluorescence regions associated with DBP formation can be identified, representing a potential method to distinguish reactivity between fluorophore groupings. However, distinct results due to the applied dimensionality reduction approaches were observed, dictating a need for considering the role of data pre-processing in the interpretability of the results. In comparison to common organic measures currently used for DBP formation prediction, fluorescence was shown to improve prediction accuracies, with improvements to DBP prediction best realized when appropriate pre-processing and regression techniques were applied. The results of this study show promise for the potential application of neural networks to best utilize fluorescence EEM data for prediction of organic matter reactivity. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. A new method in predicting productivity of multi-stage fractured horizontal well in tight gas reservoirs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunsheng Wei

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The generally accomplished technique for horizontal wells in tight gas reservoirs is by multi-stage hydraulic fracturing, not to mention, the flow characteristics of a horizontal well with multiple transverse fractures are very intricate. Conventional methods, well as an evaluation unit, are difficult to accurately predict production capacity of each fracture and productivity differences between wells with a different number of fractures. Thus, a single fracture sets the minimum evaluation unit, matrix, fractures, and lateral wellbore model that are then combined integrally to approximate horizontal well with multiple transverse hydraulic fractures in tight gas reservoirs. This paper presents a new semi-analytical methodology for predicting the production capacity of a horizontal well with multiple transverse hydraulic fractures in tight gas reservoirs. Firstly, a mathematical flow model used as a medium, which is disturbed by finite conductivity vertical fractures and rectangular shaped boundaries, is established and explained by the Fourier integral transform. Then the idea of a single stage fracture analysis is incorporated to establish linear flow model within a single fracture with a variable rate. The Fredholm integral numerical solution is applicable for the fracture conductivity function. Finally, the pipe flow model along the lateral wellbore is adapted to couple multi-stages fracture mathematical models, and the equation group of predicting productivity of a multi-stage fractured horizontal well. The whole flow process from the matrix to bottom-hole and production interference between adjacent fractures is also established. Meanwhile, the corresponding iterative algorithm of the equations is given. In this case analysis, the productions of each well and fracture are calculated under the different bottom-hole flowing pressure, and this method also contributes to obtaining the distribution of pressure drop and production for every

  2. Quantum Chemical Study of the Reaction of C+ with Interstellar Ice: Predictions of Vibrational and Electronic Spectra of Reaction Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woon, David E.

    2015-06-01

    The C+ cation (CII) is the dominant form of carbon in diffuse clouds and an important tracer for star formation in molecular clouds. We studied the low energy deposition of C+ on ice using density functional theory calculations on water clusters as large as 18 H2O. Barrierless reactions occur with water to form two dominant sets of products: HOC + H3O+ and CO- + 2H3O+. In order to provide testable predictions, we have computed both vibrational and electronic spectra for pure ice and processed ice clusters. While vibrational spectroscopy is expected to be able to discern that C+ has reacted with ice by the addition of H3O+ features not present in pure ice, it does not provided characteristic bands that would discern between HOC and CO-. On the other hand, predictions of electronic spectra suggest that low energy absorptions may occur for CO- and not HOC, making it possible to distinguish one product from the other.

  3. A 2nd generation static model for predicting greenhouse energy inputs, as an aid for production planning

    CERN Document Server

    Jolliet, O; Munday, G L

    1985-01-01

    A model which allows accurate prediction of energy consumption of a greenhouse is a useful tool for production planning and optimisation of greenhouse components. To date two types of model have been developed; some very simple models of low precision, others, precise dynamic models unsuitable for employment over long periods and too complex for use in practice. A theoretical study and measurements at the CERN trial greenhouse have allowed development of a new static model named "HORTICERN", easy to use and as precise as more complex dynamic models. This paper demonstrates the potential of this model for long-term production planning. The model gives precise predictions of energy consumption when given greenhouse conditions of use (inside temperatures, dehumidification by ventilation, …) and takes into account local climatic conditions (wind radiative losses to the sky and solar gains), type of greenhouse (cladding, thermal screen …). The HORTICERN method has been developed for PC use and requires less...

  4. The Effect of Age on Death Disgust: Challenges to Terror Management Perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel M.T. Fessler

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Proponents of Terror Management Theory (TMT argue that many facets of disgust serve to defend against existential anxiety accompanying cognizance of one's mortality. Because the passage of time brings death closer, this view predicts that the intensity of disgust elicited by reminders of death should increase with age. Skeptical of TMT, we conducted Internet-based studies using the instrument created by TMT proponents. Results reveal that age is negatively, not positively, correlated with death disgust sensitivity, a pattern consistent with adaptive habituation rather than terror management. The same result was obtained using in-person administration of the instrument in Costa Rica, a society characterized by attitudes toward death that differ from those of the U.S. Additional work in Costa Rica demonstrated that, contrary to TMT predictions, attention to one's own death need not increase disgust reactions to the body or its products. Both the evocative power of death stimuli and the negative effects of age on death disgust are consistent with the argument that disgust is an adaptation motivating disease avoidance rather than a psychodynamic defense mechanism.

  5. Characterization of silver nanoparticles in selected consumer products and its relevance for predicting children’s potential exposures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tulve, Nicolle S.; Stefaniak, Aleksandr B.; Vance, Marina E.; Rogers, Kim; Mwilu, Samuel; LeBouf, Ryan F.; Schwegler-Berry, Diane; Willis, Robert; Thomas, Treye A.; Marr, Linsey C.

    2015-01-01

    Due to their antifungal, antibacterial, antiviral, and antimicrobial properties, silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) are used in consumer products intended for use by children or in the home. Children may be especially affected by the normal use of consumer products because of their physiological functions, developmental stage, and activities and behaviors. Despite much research to date, children’s potential exposures to AgNPs are not well characterized. Our objectives were to characterize selected consumer products containing AgNPs and to use the data to estimate a child’s potential non-dietary ingestion exposure. We identified and cataloged 165 consumer products claiming to contain AgNPs that may be used by or near children or found in the home. Nineteen products (textile, liquid, plastic) were selected for further analysis. We developed a tiered analytical approach to determine silver content, form (particulate or ionic), size, morphology, agglomeration state, and composition. Silver was detected in all products except one sippy cup body. Among products in a given category, silver mass contributions were highly variable and not always uniformly distributed within products, highlighting the need to sample multiple areas of a product. Electron microscopy confirmed the presence of AgNPs. Using this data, a child’s potential non-dietary ingestion exposure to AgNPs when drinking milk formula from a sippy cup is 1.53 μg Ag/kg. Additional research is needed to understand the number and types of consumer products containing silver and the concentrations of silver in these products in order to more accurately predict children’s potential aggregate and cumulative exposures to AgNPs. PMID:25747543

  6. Sudden oak death online symposium

    Science.gov (United States)

    S.D. Cohen; J., eds Juzwik

    2003-01-01

    This symposium is being made available to all who have an interest in the recent appearance of Sudden Oak Death, a plant disease with the potential to severely impact nursery growers, shippers, the lumber and wood products industry, landscapers, government programs and others. Scientific presentations dealing with the current status of the disease and ongoing research...

  7. Using a unit cost model to predict the impact of budget cuts on logistics products and services

    OpenAIRE

    Van Haasteren, Cleve J.

    1992-01-01

    Approved for Public Release; Distribution is Unlimited The Director of the Trident Integrated Logistics Support Division at the Naval Sea Systems Command manages a complex and dynamic budget that supports the provision of logistics products and services to the Trident submarine fleet. This thesis focuses on analyzing the Logistics Division budget and developing a model where the impact of a budget cut can be predicted by employing marginal cost. The thesis also explores ...

  8. The FlbA-regulated predicted transcription factor Fum21 of Aspergillus niger is involved in fumonisin production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aerts, David; Hauer, Esther E; Ohm, Robin A; Arentshorst, Mark; Teertstra, Wieke R; Phippen, Christopher; Ram, Arthur F J; Frisvad, Jens C; Wösten, Han A B

    2018-03-01

    Aspergillus niger secretes proteins throughout the colony except for the zone that forms asexual spores called conidia. Inactivation of flbA that encodes a regulator of G-protein signaling results in colonies that are unable to reproduce asexually and that secrete proteins throughout the mycelium. In addition, the ΔflbA strain shows cell lysis and has thinner cell walls. Expression analysis showed that 38 predicted transcription factor genes are differentially expressed in strain ΔflbA. Here, the most down-regulated predicted transcription factor gene, called fum21, was inactivated. Growth, conidiation, and protein secretion were not affected in strain Δfum21. Whole genome expression analysis revealed that 63 and 11 genes were down- and up-regulated in Δfum21, respectively, when compared to the wild-type strain. Notably, 24 genes predicted to be involved in secondary metabolism were down-regulated in Δfum21, including 10 out of 12 genes of the fumonisin cluster. This was accompanied by absence of fumonisin production in the deletion strain and a 25% reduction in production of pyranonigrin A. Together, these results link FlbA-mediated sporulation-inhibited secretion with mycotoxin production.

  9. Metagenome-wide association study and machine learning prediction of bulk soil microbiome and crop productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Areas within an agricultural field in the same season often differ in crop productivity despite having the same cropping history, crop genotype, and management practices. One hypothesis is that abiotic or biotic factors in the soils differ between areas resulting in these productivity differences. I...

  10. Characterization of silver nanoparticles in selected consumer products and its relevance for predicting children's potential exposures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Due to their antifungal, antibacterial, antiviral, and antimicrobial properties, silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) are used in consumer products intended for use by children or in the home. Children may be especially affected by the normal use of consumer products because of their phy...

  11. Quality prediction of bakery products in the initial phase of process design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hadiyanto, H.; Asselman, A.; Straten, van G.; Boom, R.M.; Esveld, D.C.; Boxtel, van A.J.B.

    2007-01-01

    The development of food production processes is facilitated by tools which explore the interaction between process design, operation conditions and product characteristics. In this work an approach how to set-up a simulation model is presented for the phenomena and transformations which occur during

  12. How do target predictability and precueing affect the production of express saccades in monkeys?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiller, Peter H; Haushofer, Johannes; Kendall, Geoffery

    2004-04-01

    The extent to which target predictability and precueing affect express saccade generation was determined in Rhesus monkeys. Target predictability, as manipulated by the probability with which targets appeared at various locations, had a strong influence on express saccade generation. Pre-cueing the location of the appearance of an impending single target with an identical stimulus was effective in increasing express saccade generation when there was a gap of 50-150 ms between fixation spot termination and target onset. However, precueing was not effective when the gap time was set to 0 ms in the single target task, when several simultaneous targets appeared requiring a visual discrimination to be made using an oddity task, or when the precue was not identical to the target. These findings indicate that express saccades are facilitated by a restricted set of conditions that increase the predictability of target location and identity.

  13. Selection of Prediction Methods for Thermophysical Properties for Process Modeling and Product Design of Biodiesel Manufacturing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Su, Yung-Chieh; Liu, Y. A.; Díaz Tovar, Carlos Axel

    2011-01-01

    To optimize biodiesel manufacturing, many reported studies have built simulation models to quantify the relationship between operating conditions and process performance. For mass and energy balance simulations, it is essential to know the four fundamental thermophysical properties of the feed oil......: liquid density (ρL), vapor pressure (Pvap), liquid heat capacity (CPL), and heat of vaporization (ΔHvap). Additionally, to characterize the fuel qualities, it is critical to develop quantitative correlations to predict three biodiesel properties, namely, viscosity, cetane number, and flash point. Also......, to ensure the operability of biodiesel in cold weather, one needs to quantitatively predict three low-temperature flow properties: cloud point (CP), pour point (PP), and cold filter plugging point (CFPP). This article presents the results from a comprehensive evaluation of the methods for predicting...

  14. Cosmic-ray antiproton flux: an upper limit near that predicted for secondary production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Badhwar, G.D.; Daniel, R.R.; Cleghorn, T.; Golden, R.L.; Lacy, J.L.; Stephens, S.A.; Zipse, J.E.

    1977-01-01

    Data gathered from the 1976 September 16 balloon flight of the Johnson Space Center superconducting magnet spectrometer have been examined for the presence of cosmic-ray antiprotons. The ratio of antiprotons to protons, p-bar/p, in cosmic rays was found to be (0.03 +- 3.3) x 10 -4 in the rigidity interval 4.2 to 12.5 GV. The 95% confidence level upper limit for p-bar/p is thus 6.6 x 10 -4 . This upper limit is in strong contradiction to the prediction of the closed-galaxy model of Rasmussen and Peters, but is not inconsistent with the prediction of the modified closed-galaxy model of Peters and Westergaard. It is nearly equal to the predictions of conventional propagation models. This result provides an independent confirmation of the absence of primary antimatter in the cosmic rays at a level of approximately a few times 10 -4

  15. A Case Study of Software Product Line for Business Applications Changeability Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zdravko Roško

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The changeability, a sub-characteristic of maintainability, refers to the level of effort which is required to do modifications to a software product line (SPL application component. Assuming dependencies between SPL application components and reference architecture implementation (a platform, this paper empirically investigates the relationship between 7 design metrics and changeability of 46 server components of a product line for business applications. In addition, we investigated the usefulness of Platform Responsibility (PR metric as an indicator of product line component changeability. The results show that most of the design metrics are strongly related to the changeability of server component and also indicate statistically significant correlation between Maintainability Index (MI and PR metric. The assessment is based on a case study of the implementation of the product line for business applications in a financial institution. The results show that PR metric can be used as good predictor of changeability in the software product line environment.

  16. Predictive analytics tools to adjust and monitor performance metrics for the ATLAS Production System

    CERN Document Server

    Barreiro Megino, Fernando Harald; The ATLAS collaboration

    2017-01-01

    Having information such as an estimation of the processing time or possibility of system outage (abnormal behaviour) helps to assist to monitor system performance and to predict its next state. The current cyber-infrastructure presents computing conditions in which contention for resources among high-priority data analysis happens routinely, that might lead to significant workload and data handling interruptions. The lack of the possibility to monitor and to predict the behaviour of the analysis process (its duration) and system’s state itself caused to focus on design of the built-in situational awareness analytic tools.

  17. PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE ADDED VALUE OF SULTANA SEEDLESS GRAPE PRODUCTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Umut Burak Geyikci

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Turkey after USA is the second important raisin grape producer by cv “Sultana”in the world (Kara,2014. The Manisa district alone accounts for 31% of totalgrape production and 80% of the whole sultana seedless raisin grape production inTurkey. 95% of total grape output generated in Manisa is made up of Sultanaseedless grape(TUIK, 2012. In thisstudy, the added value of grape production inManisa has been calculated and according to the findings, the per capita addedvalue of grape production has been computed. In order to calculate the addedvalue of grape production in Manisa, costs of labor, fuel, fertilizer, disinfection,hormone, repair and maintenance of the businesses around have been investigated.After calculated costs had been deducted from total business income, the totaladded value of grape production in Manisa and the per capita added valueofgrape production in Manisa were attained The efficiency per hectare in the sampleproduction units, which was investigated during the field research, measures up to26.470 kg. The percentile distributions of cost items at this efficiency level are;27,8% fuel costs, 23,2% fertilizing costs, 19,9% irrigation costs, 11,4%disinfection costs, 7,5% hormone usage costs, 4,6% harvesting and transportingcosts and the rest consists of maintenance costs. When the costs are deducted from income per hectare (11.646 USD, the added value per hectare turns out to be8843 USD

  18. The use of a measure of acute irritation to predict the outcome of repeated usage of hand soap products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, C; Wilkinson, M; McShane, P; Pennington, D; Fernandez, C; Pierce, S

    2011-06-01

    Healthcare-associated infection is an important worldwide problem that could be reduced by better hand hygiene practice. However, an increasing number of healthcare workers are experiencing irritant contact dermatitis of the hands as a result of repeated hand washing. This may lead to a reduced level of compliance with regard to hand hygiene. To assess whether a measure of acute irritation by hand soaps could predict the effects of repeated usage over a 2-week period. In a double-blind, randomized comparison study, the comparative irritation potential of four different hand soaps was assessed over a 24-h treatment period. The effect of repeated hand washing with the hand soap products over a 2-week period in healthy adult volunteers on skin barrier function was then determined by assessment of transepidermal water loss (TEWL), epidermal hydration and a visual assessment using the Hand Eczema Severity Index (HECSI) at days 0, 7 and 14. A total of 121 subjects from the 123 recruited completed phase 1 of the study. All four products were seen to be significantly different from each other in terms of the irritant reaction observed and all products resulted in a significantly higher irritation compared with the no-treatment control. Seventy-nine of the initial 121 subjects were then enrolled into the repeated usage study. A statistically significant worsening of the clinical condition of the skin as measured by HECSI was seen from baseline to day 14 in those subjects repeatedly washing their hands with two of the four soap products (products C and D) with P-values of 0·02 and 0·01, respectively. Subclinical assessment of the skin barrier function by measuring epidermal hydration was significantly increased from baseline to day 7 after repeated hand washing with products A, B and D but overall no significant change was seen in all four products tested by day 14. A statistically significant increase in TEWL at day 14 was seen for product A (P = 0·02) indicating a

  19. Optimal Aging and Death

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dalgaard, Carl-Johan Lars; Strulik, Holger

    2010-01-01

    This study introduces physiological aging into a simple model of optimal intertemporal consumption. In this endeavor we draw on the natural science literature on aging. According to the purposed theory, the speed of the aging process and the time of death are endogenously determined by optimal...... health investments. At the same time, physiological aspects of the aging process influence optimal savings and health investment. We calibrate the model for the average US male in 2000 and proceed to show that the calibrated model accounts well for the cross-country link between labor productivity...... and life expectancy in the same year ("the Preston curve"); cross-country income differences can explain differences in life expectancy at age 20 of up to a decade. Moreover, technological change in health care of about 1.1% per year can account for the observed shift in the Preston curve between 1980...

  20. The impact of uncertainties on predicted GHG emissions of dairy cow production systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zehetmeier, M.; Gandorfer, M.; Hoffmann, H.; Muller, U.K.; Boer, de I.J.M.

    2014-01-01

    Dairy farms produce significant greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and are therefore a focal point for GHG-mitigation practices. To develop viable mitigation options, we need robust (insensitive to changes in model parameters and assumptions) predictions of GHG emissions. To this end, we developed a

  1. Heavy-Ion Fusion Mechanism And Predictions of Super-Heavy Elements Production

    OpenAIRE

    Abe, Y.; Shen, Caiwan; Boilley, D.; Giraud, B.G.; Kosenko, G.

    2009-01-01

    International audience; Fusion process is shown to firstly form largely deformed mono-nucleus and then to undergo diffusion in two-dimensions with the radial and mass-asymmetry degrees of freedom. Examples of prediction of residue cross sections are given for the elements with Z=117 and 118.

  2. Artificial Neural Network Approach to Predict Biodiesel Production in Supercritical tert-Butyl Methyl Ether

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Obie Farobie

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available In this study, for the first time artificial neural network was used to predict biodiesel yield in supercritical tert-butyl methyl ether (MTBE. The experimental data of biodiesel yield conducted by varying four input factors (i.e. temperature, pressure, oil-to-MTBE molar ratio, and reaction time were used to elucidate artificial neural network model in order to predict biodiesel yield. The main goal of this study was to assess how accurately this artificial neural network model to predict biodiesel yield conducted under supercritical MTBE condition. The result shows that artificial neural network is a powerful tool for modeling and predicting biodiesel yield conducted under supercritical MTBE condition that was proven by a high value of coefficient of determination (R of 0.9969, 0.9899, and 0.9658 for training, validation, and testing, respectively. Using this approach, the highest biodiesel yield was determined of 0.93 mol/mol (corresponding to the actual biodiesel yield of 0.94 mol/mol that was achieved at 400 °C, under the reactor pressure of 10 MPa, oil-to-MTBE molar ratio of 1:40 within 15 min of reaction time.

  3. Prediction of enteric methane production, yield, and intensity in dairy cattle using an intercontinental database

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Niu, Mutian; Kebreab, Ermias; Hristov, Alexander N

    2018-01-01

    [g/kg dry matter intake (DMI)], and intensity (g/kg energy corrected milk) and their respective relationships; (3) develop intercontinental and regional models and cross-validate their performance; and (4) assess the trade-off between availability of on-farm inputs and CH4prediction accuracy...

  4. Heavy-Ion Fusion Mechanism and Predictions of Super-Heavy Elements Production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abe, Yasuhisa; Shen Caiwan; Boilley, David; Giraud, Bertrand G.; Kosenko, Grigory

    2009-01-01

    Fusion process is shown to firstly form largely deformed mono-nucleus and then to undergo diffusion in two-dimensions with the radial and mass-asymmetry degrees of freedom. Examples of prediction of residue cross sections are given for the elements with Z = 117 and 118.

  5. Next-to-leading order QCD predictions for associated production of top squarks and charginos at the CERN LHC

    CERN Document Server

    Jin, L G

    2003-01-01

    We present the calculations of the complete next-to-leading order (NLO) inclusive total cross sections for the associated production processes pp->t sub i chi sub k sup - +X in the minimal supersymmetric standard model at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. Our calculations show that the total cross sections for the t sub 1 chi sub 1 sup - production for the lighter top squark masses in the region 100 GeV 500 GeV and the t sub 2 chi sub 2 sup - production channel. Moreover, we find that the NLO QCD corrections in general enhance the leading order total cross sections significantly, and vastly reduce the dependence of the total cross sections on the renormalization/factorization scale, which leads to increased confidence in predictions based on these results. (orig.)

  6. Double product reflects the predictive power of systolic pressure in the general population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schutte, Rudolph; Thijs, Lutgarde; Asayama, Kei

    2013-01-01

    The double product (DP), consisting of the systolic blood pressure (SBP) multiplied by the pulse rate (PR), is an index of myocardial oxygen consumption, but its prognostic value in the general population remains unknown....

  7. Radioanalytical prediction of radiative capture in 99Mo production via transmutation adiabatic resonance crossing by cyclotron

    CERN Document Server

    Khorshidi, Abdollah; Pazirandeh, Ali; Tenreiro, Claudio; Kadi, Yacine

    2014-01-01

    In this study, the transmutation adiabatic resonance crossing (TARC) concept was estimated in Mo-99 radioisotope production via radiative capture reaction in two designs. The TARC method was composed of moderating neutrons in lead or a composition of lead and water. Additionally, the target was surrounded by a moderator assembly and a graphite reflector district. Produced neutrons were investigated by (p,xn) interactions with 30 MeV and 300 mu A proton beam on tungsten, beryllium, and tantalum targets. The Mo-99 production yield was related to the moderator property, cross section, and sample positioning inside the distinct region of neutron storage as must be proper to achieve gains. Gathered thermal flux of neutrons can contribute to molybdenum isotope production. Moreover, the sample positioning to gain higher production yield was dependent on a greater flux in the length of thermal neutrons and region materials inside the moderator or reflector. When the sample radial distance from Be was 38 cm inside the...

  8. Application of Earth Sciences Products for use in Next Generation Numerical Aerosol Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-09-30

    measurements from the global AERONET monitoring network, coupled with land surface products for albedo and snow . These were used to perform a detailed...quality-assurance and quality-control procedures for over-land MODIS aerosol product and AVHRR, and expand assimilation to all traditional dark-target...APPROACH Work performed in FY10 focused on the development of prognostic error models for MODIS over- land data and our internal CALIOP

  9. Comparison of Two Quantitative Analysis Techniques to Predict the Evaluation of Product Form Design

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Hung-Yuan; Chang, Yu-Ming; Tung, Ting-Chun

    2014-01-01

    Consumer satisfaction with a product’s form plays an essential role in determining the likelihood of its commercial success. A consumer perception-centered design approach is proposed in this study to aid product designers with incorporating consumers’ perceptions of product forms in the design process. The consumer perception-centered design approach uses the linear modeling technique (multiple linear regression) and the nonlinear modeling technique (neural network) to determine the satisfyi...

  10. Using the DayCent Ecosystem Model to Predict Methane Emissions from Wetland Rice Production in Support for Mitigation Efforts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogle, S. M.; Parton, W. J.; Cheng, K.; Pan, G.

    2014-12-01

    Wetland rice production is a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to the atmosphere, and rice production is predicted to increase dramatically in the future due to expected growth in human populations. Mitigating GHG emissions from future rice production is possible with best management practices for water management, residue management and organic amendments. Policy initiatives and programs that promote practices to reduce GHG emissions from rice production will likely need robust methods for quantifying emission reductions. Frameworks based on process-based model provide one alternative for estimating emissions reductions. The advantages of this approach are that the models are relatively inexpensive to apply, incorporate a variety of management and environmental drivers influencing emissions, and can be used to predict future emissions for planning purposes. The disadvantages are that the models can be challenging to parameterize and evaluate, and require a relatively large amount of data. The DayCent ecosystem model simulates plant and soil processes, and is an example of a model that could be used to quantify emission reductions for reporting mitigation activities associated with rice production systems. DayCent estimates methane emissions, which is the major source of GHG emissions from wetland rice, but also estimates nitrous oxide emissions and soil organic C stock changes. DayCent has been evaluated using data from China, explaining 83% of the variation in methane emissions from 72 experimental rice fields. In addition, DayCent has been applied regionally in the United States to estimate methane, nitrous oxide emissions, and soil C stock changes, in compliance with the guidelines for reporting GHG emissions to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Given the cost of alternatives, process-based models such as DayCent may offer the best way forward for estimating GHG emissions from rice production, and with quantification of uncertainty

  11. Prediction of Acute Mammalian Toxicity Using QSAR Methods: A Case Study of Sulfur Mustard and Its Breakdown Products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Wheeler

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Predicting toxicity quantitatively, using Quantitative Structure Activity Relationships (QSAR, has matured over recent years to the point that the predictions can be used to help identify missing comparison values in a substance’s database. In this manuscript we investigate using the lethal dose that kills fifty percent of a test population (the LD50 for determining relative toxicity of a number of substances. In general, the smaller the LD50 value, the more toxic the chemical, and the larger the LD50 value, the lower the toxicity. When systemic toxicity and other specific toxicity data are unavailable for the chemical(s of interest, during emergency responses, LD50 values may be employed to determine the relative toxicity of a series of chemicals. In the present study, a group of chemical warfare agents and their breakdown products have been evaluated using four available rat oral QSAR LD50 models. The QSAR analysis shows that the breakdown products of Sulfur Mustard (HD are predicted to be less toxic than the parent compound as well as other known breakdown products that have known toxicities. The QSAR estimated break down products LD50 values ranged from 299 mg/kg to 5,764 mg/kg. This evaluation allows for the ranking and toxicity estimation of compounds for which little toxicity information existed; thus leading to better risk decision making in the field.

  12. Prediction of the estimated 5-year risk of sudden cardiac death and syncope or non-sustained ventricular tachycardia in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy using late gadolinium enhancement and extracellular volume CMR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Avanesov, Maxim; Weinrich, Julius; Well, Lennart; Tahir, Enver; Adam, Gerhard; Lund, Gunnar [University Hospital Hamburg Eppendorf, Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, Hamburg (Germany); Muench, Julia; Patten, Monica [University Heart Center Hamburg, Department of General and Interventional Cardiology, Hamburg (Germany); DZHK (German Center for Cardiovascular Research), Partner Site Hamburg/Kiel/Luebeck, Hamburg (Germany); Saering, Dennis [University of Applied Sciences, Information Technology and Image Processing, Wedel (Germany); Stehning, Christian [Philips Research, Hamburg (Germany); Bohnen, Sebastian; Radunski, Ulf K.; Muellerleile, Kai [University Heart Center Hamburg, Department of General and Interventional Cardiology, Hamburg (Germany)

    2017-12-15

    To evaluate the ability of late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) and mapping cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) including native T1 and global extracellular volume (ECV) to identify hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) patients at risk for sudden cardiac death (SCD) and to predict syncope or non-sustained ventricular tachycardia (VT). A 1.5-T CMR was performed in 73 HCM patients and 16 controls. LGE size was quantified using the 3SD, 5SD and full width at half maximum (FWHM) method. T1 and ECV maps were generated by a 3(3)5 modified Look-Locker inversion recovery sequence. Receiver-operating curve analysis evaluated the best parameter to identify patients with increased SCD risk ≥4% and patients with syncope or non-sustained VT. Global ECV was the best predictor of SCD risk with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.83. LGE size was significantly inferior to global ECV with an AUC of 0.68, 0.70 and 0.70 (all P < 0.05) for 3SD-, 5SD- and FWHM-LGE, respectively. Combined use of the SCD risk score and global ECV significantly improved the diagnostic accuracy to identify HCM patients with syncope or non-sustained VT. Combined use of the SCD risk score and global ECV has the potential to improve HCM patient selection, benefiting most implantable cardioverter defibrillators. (orig.)

  13. Risk prediction of hospital mortality for adult patients admitted to Australian and New Zealand intensive care units: development and validation of the Australian and New Zealand Risk of Death model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul, Eldho; Bailey, Michael; Pilcher, David

    2013-12-01

    The purpose of this study is to develop and validate a new mortality prediction model (Australian and New Zealand Risk of Death [ANZROD]) for Australian and New Zealand intensive care units (ICUs) and compare its performance with the existing Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) III-j. All ICU admissions from 2004 to 2009 were extracted from the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society Adult Patient Database. Hospital mortality was modeled using logistic regression with training (two third) and validation (one third) data sets. Predictor variables included APACHE III score components, source of admission to ICU and hospital, lead time, elective surgery, treatment limitation, ventilation status, and APACHE III diagnoses. Model performance was assessed by standardized mortality ratio, Hosmer-Lemeshow C and H statistics, Brier score, Cox calibration regression, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, and calibration curves. There were 456605 patients available for model development and validation. Observed mortality was 11.3%. Performance measures (standardized mortality ratio, Hosmer-Lemeshow C and H statistics, and receiver operating characteristic curve) for the ANZROD and APACHE III-j model in the validation data set were 1.01, 104.9 and 111.4, and 0.902; 0.84, 1596.6 and 2087.3, and 0.885, respectively. The ANZROD has better calibration; discrimination compared with the APACHE III-j. Further research is required to validate performance over time and in specific subgroups of ICU population. © 2013.

  14. Prediction of the estimated 5-year risk of sudden cardiac death and syncope or non-sustained ventricular tachycardia in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy using late gadolinium enhancement and extracellular volume CMR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avanesov, Maxim; Weinrich, Julius; Well, Lennart; Tahir, Enver; Adam, Gerhard; Lund, Gunnar; Muench, Julia; Patten, Monica; Saering, Dennis; Stehning, Christian; Bohnen, Sebastian; Radunski, Ulf K.; Muellerleile, Kai

    2017-01-01

    To evaluate the ability of late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) and mapping cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) including native T1 and global extracellular volume (ECV) to identify hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) patients at risk for sudden cardiac death (SCD) and to predict syncope or non-sustained ventricular tachycardia (VT). A 1.5-T CMR was performed in 73 HCM patients and 16 controls. LGE size was quantified using the 3SD, 5SD and full width at half maximum (FWHM) method. T1 and ECV maps were generated by a 3(3)5 modified Look-Locker inversion recovery sequence. Receiver-operating curve analysis evaluated the best parameter to identify patients with increased SCD risk ≥4% and patients with syncope or non-sustained VT. Global ECV was the best predictor of SCD risk with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.83. LGE size was significantly inferior to global ECV with an AUC of 0.68, 0.70 and 0.70 (all P < 0.05) for 3SD-, 5SD- and FWHM-LGE, respectively. Combined use of the SCD risk score and global ECV significantly improved the diagnostic accuracy to identify HCM patients with syncope or non-sustained VT. Combined use of the SCD risk score and global ECV has the potential to improve HCM patient selection, benefiting most implantable cardioverter defibrillators. (orig.)

  15. Feasibility of DEXA prediction of dry matter and mass for horticultural products

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bartle, C.M.; West, J.G.

    2009-01-01

    Previously the DEXA system used in this research has been deployed commercially in meat processing plants with the objective of accurately determining the fat content of bulk and packaged meat, through a JV with ANZCO Foods and a partnership with Smiths Detection. This present research is aimed at demonstrating an ability to measure the dry matter distribution and in turn the net dry matter for individual horticultural products using DEXA. The DEXA images are obtained while scanning the products on a conveyor belt running at speeds representative of production grading situations. The products reported on here are primarily potatoes (because of a direct commercial interest), but also a butternut pumpkin and two rock melons. The grading and dry matter measurement capability is based on detecting change in the effective atomic number (EAN) with change in the elemental proportions within the product and there being effectively a binary mixture (e.g dry matter and water) present. Grading of fruit and vegetables on this basis is expected to be challenging. The commercial meat/fat grading already commercialised as a DEXA system is associated with 1.8 EAN units difference between fat (carbon rich Z eff =5.8) and fully-lean meat (oxygen rich Z eff =7.6) but this range is large compared to what is expected for horticultural products. The dry matter in horticultural products is primarily starch (plus minerals) and the EAN difference between starch (and minerals) and water is unknown here but calculations give the difference as little as 0.2 EAN units, dependant on the mineral content in the product. In this work we show that the dry matter sensitivities of the DEXA technology for horticultural products is discernable allowing measurement of dry matter distributions, and net dry matter values. The EAN range is indeed much smaller than for fat/meat mixtures, and consistent differences are yet to be demonstrated for an assembly of product, except for potatoes where consistency

  16. Preventing Stroke Deaths

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... die within minutes. Strokes happen more in some populations and geographic areas. Stroke death declines have stalled in 3 out of every 4 states. Blacks have the highest stroke death rates among all ...

  17. National Death Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The National Death Index (NDI) is a centralized database of death record information on file in state vital statistics offices. Working with these state offices, the...

  18. God's dominion over death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulling, Sharon

    2012-01-01

    This article briefly overviews the criteria for and physiological process of death, contrasting physical death with biblical passages revealing how God interceded in this universal process when Jesus was on earth.

  19. In silico predictions of gastrointestinal drug absorption in pharmaceutical product development: application of the mechanistic absorption model GI-Sim.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sjögren, Erik; Westergren, Jan; Grant, Iain; Hanisch, Gunilla; Lindfors, Lennart; Lennernäs, Hans; Abrahamsson, Bertil; Tannergren, Christer

    2013-07-16

    Oral drug delivery is the predominant administration route for a major part of the pharmaceutical products used worldwide. Further understanding and improvement of gastrointestinal drug absorption predictions is currently a highly prioritized area of research within the pharmaceutical industry. The fraction absorbed (fabs) of an oral dose after administration of a solid dosage form is a key parameter in the estimation of the in vivo performance of an orally administrated drug formulation. This study discloses an evaluation of the predictive performance of the mechanistic physiologically based absorption model GI-Sim. GI-Sim deploys a compartmental gastrointestinal absorption and transit model as well as algorithms describing permeability, dissolution rate, salt effects, partitioning into micelles, particle and micelle drifting in the aqueous boundary layer, particle growth and amorphous or crystalline precipitation. Twelve APIs with reported or expected absorption limitations in humans, due to permeability, dissolution and/or solubility, were investigated. Predictions of the intestinal absorption for different doses and formulations were performed based on physicochemical and biopharmaceutical properties, such as solubility in buffer and simulated intestinal fluid, molecular weight, pK(a), diffusivity and molecule density, measured or estimated human effective permeability and particle size distribution. The performance of GI-Sim was evaluated by comparing predicted plasma concentration-time profiles along with oral pharmacokinetic parameters originating from clinical studies in healthy individuals. The capability of GI-Sim to correctly predict impact of dose and particle size as well as the in vivo performance of nanoformulations was also investigated. The overall predictive performance of GI-Sim was good as >95% of the predicted pharmacokinetic parameters (C(max) and AUC) were within a 2-fold deviation from the clinical observations and the predicted plasma AUC

  20. [Fetal death in utero].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudigoz, R C; Revillard, J P; Audra, P; Luciani, F; Malvolti, B; Griot, J P; Frappart, L; Lafont, S

    1986-11-01

    152 cases of fetal death in utero are reported. The most frequent etiologies were: vasculorenal syndromes: 28.3 p. cent, idiopathic DPPNIs and RCIUs: 28 p. cent, accidental causes (trauma, funicular syndromes): 19.5 p. cent. Cause of death was unknown or imprecise in 18.4 p. cent of cases. Repeated fetal deaths in utero were rare: 5 observations. The authors consider the management of fetal death in utero, associated immunological problems and how to deal with subsequent pregnancies.

  1. A human hemi-cornea model for eye irritation testing: quality control of production, reliability and predictive capacity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engelke, M; Zorn-Kruppa, M; Gabel, D; Reisinger, K; Rusche, B; Mewes, K R

    2013-02-01

    We have developed a 3-dimensional human hemi-cornea which comprises an immortalized epithelial cell line and keratocytes embedded in a collagen stroma. In the present study, we have used MTT reduction of the whole tissue to clarify whether the production of this complex 3-D-model is transferable into other laboratories and whether these tissues can be constructed reproducibly. Our results demonstrate the reproducible production of the hemi-cornea model according to standard operation procedures using 15 independent batches of reconstructed hemi-cornea models in two independent laboratories each. Furthermore, the hemi-cornea tissues have been treated with 20 chemicals of different eye-irritating potential under blind conditions to assess the performance and limitations of our test system comparing three different prediction models. The most suitable prediction model revealed an overall in vitro-in vivo concordance of 80% and 70% in the participating laboratories, respectively, and an inter-laboratory concordance of 80%. Sensitivity of the test was 77% and specificity was between 57% and 86% to discriminate classified from non-classified chemicals. We conclude that additional physiologically relevant endpoints in both epithelium and stroma have to be developed for the reliable prediction of all GHS classes of eye irritation in one stand alone test system. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. NNLO QCD predictions for fully-differential top-quark pair production at the Tevatron

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Czakon, Michał; Fiedler, Paul [Institut für Theoretische Teilchenphysik und Kosmologie,RWTH Aachen University, D-52056 Aachen (Germany); Heymes, David; Mitov, Alexander [Cavendish Laboratory, University of Cambridge,Cambridge CB3 0HE (United Kingdom)

    2016-05-05

    We present a comprehensive study of differential distributions for Tevatron top-pair events at the level of stable top quarks. All calculations are performed in NNLO QCD with the help of a fully differential partonic Monte-Carlo and are exact at this order in perturbation theory. We present predictions for all kinematic distributions for which data exists. Particular attention is paid on the top-quark forward-backward asymmetry which we study in detail. We compare the NNLO results with existing approximate NNLO predictions as well as differential distributions computed with different parton distribution sets. Theory errors are significantly smaller than current experimental ones with overall agreement between theory and data.

  3. Genomic prediction applied to high-biomass sorghum for bioenergy production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Oliveira, Amanda Avelar; Pastina, Maria Marta; de Souza, Vander Filipe; da Costa Parrella, Rafael Augusto; Noda, Roberto Willians; Simeone, Maria Lúcia Ferreira; Schaffert, Robert Eugene; de Magalhães, Jurandir Vieira; Damasceno, Cynthia Maria Borges; Margarido, Gabriel Rodrigues Alves

    2018-01-01

    The increasing cost of energy and finite oil and gas reserves have created a need to develop alternative fuels from renewable sources. Due to its abiotic stress tolerance and annual cultivation, high-biomass sorghum ( Sorghum bicolor L. Moench) shows potential as a bioenergy crop. Genomic selection is a useful tool for accelerating genetic gains and could restructure plant breeding programs by enabling early selection and reducing breeding cycle duration. This work aimed at predicting breeding values via genomic selection models for 200 sorghum genotypes comprising landrace accessions and breeding lines from biomass and saccharine groups. These genotypes were divided into two sub-panels, according to breeding purpose. We evaluated the following phenotypic biomass traits: days to flowering, plant height, fresh and dry matter yield, and fiber, cellulose, hemicellulose, and lignin proportions. Genotyping by sequencing yielded more than 258,000 single-nucleotide polymorphism markers, which revealed population structure between subpanels. We then fitted and compared genomic selection models BayesA, BayesB, BayesCπ, BayesLasso, Bayes Ridge Regression and random regression best linear unbiased predictor. The resulting predictive abilities varied little between the different models, but substantially between traits. Different scenarios of prediction showed the potential of using genomic selection results between sub-panels and years, although the genotype by environment interaction negatively affected accuracies. Functional enrichment analyses performed with the marker-predicted effects suggested several interesting associations, with potential for revealing biological processes relevant to the studied quantitative traits. This work shows that genomic selection can be successfully applied in biomass sorghum breeding programs.

  4. Sudden death victims

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ceelen, Manon; van der Werf, Christian; Hendrix, Anneke; Naujocks, Tatjana; Woonink, Frits; de Vries, Philip; van der Wal, Allard; Das, Kees

    2015-01-01

    The goal of this study was to ascertain accordance between cause of death established by the forensic physician and autopsy results in young sudden death victims in the Netherlands. Sudden death victims aged 1-45 years examined by forensic physicians operating in the participating regions which also

  5. Separation, Part I: Death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jordan, Anne Devereaux

    1997-01-01

    Contends literature is the one place where death still abides, where grief is felt and consolation can be sought. States that young readers can gain a recognition in books that death is natural. Discusses death in folk and fairy tales, in 17th-century didactic children's books and in modern and contemporary literature. Outlines characteristics of…

  6. A computer code PACTOLE to predict activation and transport of corrosion products in a PWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beslu, P.; Frejaville, G.; Lalet, A.

    1978-01-01

    Theoretical studies on activation and transport of corrosion products in a PWR primary circuit have been concentrated, at CEA on the development of a computer code : PACTOLE. This code takes into account the major phenomena which govern corrosion products transport: 1. Ion solubility is obtained by usual thermodynamics laws in function of water chemistry: pH at operating temperature is calculated by the code. 2. Release rates of base metals, dissolution rates of deposits, precipitation rates of soluble products are derived from solubility variations. 3. Deposition of solid particles is treated by a model taking into account particle size, brownian and turbulent diffusion and inertial effect. Erosion of deposits is accounted for by a semi-empirical model. After a review of calculational models, an application of PACTOLE is presented in view of analyzing the distribution of in core. (author)

  7. Lipid accumulation product: a simple and accurate index for predicting metabolic syndrome in Taiwanese people aged 50 and over

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chiang Jui-Kun

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Lipid accumulation product (LAP has been advocated as a simple clinical indicator of metabolic syndrome (MS. However, no studies have evaluated the accuracy of LAP in predicting MS in Taiwanese adults. The aim of our investigation was to use LAP to predict MS in Taiwanese adults. Methods Taiwanese adults aged 50 years and over (n = 513 were recruited from a physical examination center at a regional hospital in southern Taiwan. MS was defined according to the MS criteria for Taiwanese people. LAP was calculated as (waist circumference [cm] − 65 × (triglyceride concentration [mM] for men, and (waist circumference [cm] − 58 × (triglyceride concentration [mM] for women. Simple logistic regression and receiver-operating characteristic (ROC analyses were conducted. Results The prevalence of MS was 19.5 and 21.5% for males and females, respectively. LAP showed the highest prediction accuracy among adiposity measures with an area under the ROC curve (AUC of 0.901. This was significantly higher than the adiposity measure of waist-to-height ratio (AUC = 0.813. Conclusions LAP was a simple and accurate predictor of MS in Taiwanese people aged 50 years and over. LAP had significantly higher predictability than other adiposity measures tested.

  8. Prediction of {sup 211}At production using the Monte Carlo code MCNPX

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Gyehong; Chun, Kwonsoo; Kim, Byungil; Yu, Inkong [Korea Institute of Radiological and Medical Sciences, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Park, Sungho [Asan Medical Center, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-05-15

    {sup 211}At is the most promising radionuclide for targeted cancer therapy due to its decay properties. {sup 211}At has a half-life of 7.214 h, which is sufficient for its production, labeling, dispensing, transportation, quality control and administering the radiolabeled compound. The range of α-particles produced by the decay of {sup 211}At are less than 70 μm in water and soft animal tissues with a LET between 100 and 130 keV/μm, which is about the maximum RBE for heavy ions. The survey carried out by Barbet et al revealed that the most favorable radionuclides for therapeutic applications were {sup 211}At and {sup 67}Cu. The most preferred production route for {sup 211}At production is via cyclotron bombardment of natural bismuth targets with about 29 MeV α-particles. In this study, the production method is based on the nuclear reactions {sup 209}Bi(α,2n){sup 211}At, which has a threshold around 21 MeV and reaches the maximum cross section of about 900 mb at 30 MeV. However, one cannot take advantage of the full range of the beam energies suitable for production of {sup 211}At because of concerns about generating {sup 210}At with half-life of 8.3 h. This radionuclide is problematic because its decay leads to the production of daughter {sup 210}Po, which is an α-particle (5.304 MeV) emitting radionuclide with a physical half-life of 138.4 d and a biological half-lives ranging from 30 to 50 d, unnecessarily giving rise to bone marrow toxicity. Our goal has been to model fluxes from a {sup 209}Bi target and to subsequently calculate the yields of α-emitter {sup 211}At and {sup 210}At using 45 MeV α-beam.

  9. Prediction of China's coal production-environmental pollution based on a hybrid genetic algorithm-system dynamics model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu Shiwei; Wei Yiming

    2012-01-01

    This paper proposes a hybrid model based on genetic algorithm (GA) and system dynamics (SD) for coal production–environmental pollution load in China. GA has been utilized in the optimization of the parameters of the SD model to reduce implementation subjectivity. The chain of “Economic development–coal demand–coal production–environmental pollution load” of China in 2030 was predicted, and scenarios were analyzed. Results show that: (1) GA performs well in optimizing the parameters of the SD model objectively and in simulating the historical data; (2) The demand for coal energy continuously increases, although the coal intensity has actually decreased because of China's persistent economic development. Furthermore, instead of reaching a turning point by 2030, the environmental pollution load continuously increases each year even under the scenario where coal intensity decreased by 20% and investment in pollution abatement increased by 20%; (3) For abating the amount of “three types of wastes”, reducing the coal intensity is more effective than reducing the polluted production per tonne of coal and increasing investment in pollution control. - Highlights: ► We propos a GA-SD model for China's coal production-pollution prediction. ► Genetic algorithm (GA) can objectively and accurately optimize parameters of system dynamics (SD) model. ► Environmental pollution in China is projected to grow in our scenarios by 2030. ► The mechanism of reducing waste production per tonne of coal mining is more effective than others.

  10. Prediction of in vivo short-chain fatty acid production in hindgut fermenting mammals: problems and pitfalls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millet, S; Van Oeckel, M J; Aluwé, M; Delezie, E; De Brabander, D L

    2010-08-01

    Short-chain fatty acids (SCFA) are considered to have important physiological functions. However, to prove this, SCFA must be determined, which is rather difficult as a lot of factors interfere with their production. This review focuses on the factors that influence the prediction of short-chain fatty acid formation in the large intestine of monogastric mammals. To mimic the in vivo situation, when predicting the amount of short-chain fatty acids produced from a certain substrate based on in vitro models, one has to estimate the amount of this substrate entering the large intestine, the retention time in the different parts of the large intestine, and the substrate fermentability. Instead of in vitro models, direct and indirect techniques may be used to measure short-chain fatty acid production in vivo. Direct techniques include the measurement of input and output or measuring differences in SCFA between portal and venous blood whereas indirect techniques measure the end products of fermentation. In this case, other factors have to be taken into account, including technical limitations and ethical considerations. In this review it is concluded that the choice for a method will rely on the purpose of the study taking into account the (dis)advantages of every method.

  11. Predicting outgrowth and inactivation of Clostridium perfringens in meat products during low temperature long time heat treatment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duan, Zhi; Holst Hansen, Terese; Hansen, Tina Beck

    temperature and Cl. perfringens is, therefore, of special interest as it may outgrow during the coming up time and cause food safety problems. This study was undertaken to set up a predictive tool to establish the outgrowth potential of C. perfringens in LTLT meat products as a function of the applied heating...... profile. METHODS Challenge tests were performed at two dynamic temperature profiles (fast LTLT, 2.6 h from 10 to 53°C, and slow LTLT, 3.8 h from 10 to 53°C) with three types of inoculums (spores, heat-active spores and vegetative cells) of Cl. perfringens 790-94 in two different types of meat pork (pH 5...... of meats. Very short lag times were observed during LTLT treatments, which were not observed in isothermal or cooling conditions previously. The reason for short lag time during slowly increasing temperature conditions, and how to predict it, should be interesting for future studies....

  12. VSRR - Provisional monthly number of deaths by state

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/vsrr/provisional-tables.htm Monthly provisional counts of deaths and infant deaths are provided by state of residence (50 states,...

  13. Back to the Roots: Prediction of Biologically Active Natural Products from Ayurveda Traditional Medicine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Polur, Honey; Joshi, Tejal; Workman, Christopher

    2011-01-01

    Ayurveda, the traditional Indian medicine is one of the most ancient, yet living medicinal traditions. In the present work, we developed an in silico library of natural products from Ayurveda medicine, coupled with structural information, plant origin and traditional therapeutic use. Following this...... basis of Ayurveda medicine and in drug repurposing....

  14. Social role conflict predicts stimulated cytokine production among men, not women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schreier, Hannah M C; Hoffer, Lauren C; Chen, Edith

    2016-11-01

    To assess whether perceived role conflict is associated with stimulated pro-inflammatory cytokine production and glucocorticoid sensitivity, and whether these associations are moderated by sex. 153 healthy adults (aged 45.8±5.5years, 78% female) listed their 3 main social roles and indicated the amount of role conflict they perceived between each pair of social roles. Subsequently, participants underwent blood draws and leukocyte response to microbial challenge and glucocorticoid sensitivity were assessed by incubating whole blood with lipopolysaccharide (LPS) in the presence or absence of hydrocortisone. Stimulated levels of Interleukin (IL)-1β, IL-6, IL-8, and tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNFα) were measured. Multiple regression analyses controlling for sociodemographics revealed significant sex×role conflict interactions for LPS-stimulated production of IL-1β, IL-6, and TNFα (all interaction psrole conflict was associated with greater pro-inflammatory cytokine production in response to microbial stimulation only among men, not women. There also were significant sex×role conflict interactions with respect to glucocorticoid sensitivity for IL-1β, IL-6, and TNFα production (all interaction psrole conflict was unrelated to glucocorticoid sensitivity among women, but associated with less sensitivity to glucocorticoid signaling among men. Perceived social role conflict, indicating greater perceived demand across multiple social roles, may take a greater toll on the regulation of inflammatory processes among men compared to women. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. The spin predictions of the relativistic quark model for baryon decuplet production

    CERN Document Server

    Montvay, István

    1973-01-01

    Single-quark scattering contributions are considered in the case of ground-state decuplet baryon production. It is shown within the framework of an explicitly covariant approach that the spin consequences of the quark additivity assumption hold in the t-channel helicity frame independently of much of the details of the model. (12 refs).

  16. Predicting Longitudinal Change in Language Production and Comprehension in Individuals with Down Syndrome: Hierarchical Linear Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, Robin S.; Hesketh, Linda J.; Kistler, Doris J.

    2002-01-01

    Longitudinal change in syntax comprehension and production skill, measured over six years, was modeled in 31 individuals (ages 5-20) with Down syndrome. The best fitting Hierarchical Linear Modeling model of comprehension uses age and visual and auditory short-term memory as predictors of initial status, and age for growth trajectory. (Contains…

  17. QCD predictions for beauty production in pi p and pp collisions

    CERN Document Server

    Tung Sheng Tu

    1980-01-01

    The total cross sections for beauty production in pi p, pp and pp collisions are calculated within perturbative QCD. It turns out that the cross sections are around several nanobarns at presently available energies. For the future pp colliders, the total cross section reaches several millibarns. (13 refs).

  18. Next-to-leading order QCD predictions for the hadronic WH+jet production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Su Jijuan; Ma Wengan; Zhang Renyou; Guo Lei

    2010-01-01

    We calculate the next-to-leading order (NLO) QCD corrections to the WH 0 production in association with a jet at hadron colliders. We study the impacts of the complete NLO QCD radiative corrections to the integrated cross sections, the scale dependence of the cross sections, and the differential cross sections ((dσ/dcosθ), (dσ/dp T )) of the final W-, Higgs boson and jet. We find that the corrections significantly modify the physical observables, and reduce the scale uncertainty of the leading-order cross section. Our results show that by applying the inclusive scheme with p T,j cut =20 GeV and taking m H =120 GeV, μ=μ 0 ≡(1/2)(m W +m H ), the K-factor is 1.15 for the process pp→W ± H 0 j+X at the Tevatron, while the K-factors for the processes pp→W - H 0 j+X and pp→W + H 0 j+X at the LHC are 1.12 and 1.08, respectively. We conclude that to understand the hadronic associated WH 0 production, it is necessary to study the NLO QCD corrections to the WH 0 j production process which is part of the inclusive WH 0 production.

  19. Productive Vocabulary among Three Groups of Bilingual American Children: Comparison and Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cote, Linda R.; Bornstein, Marc H.

    2014-01-01

    The importance of input factors for bilingual children's vocabulary development was investigated. Forty-seven Argentine, 42 South Korean, 51 European American, 29 Latino immigrant, 26 Japanese immigrant, and 35 Korean immigrant mothers completed checklists of their 20-month-old children's productive vocabularies. Bilingual children's vocabulary…

  20. Motor aging results from cerebellar neuron death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boisgontier, Matthieu P

    2015-03-01

    As we age, movements become slower and inconsistent and require more attention. These hallmarks of aging suggest a switch from predictive to reactive motor control. Here I examine evidence supporting the hypothesis that motor aging is primarily determined by the early death of neurons in the cerebellum, a critical structure for predictive motor control. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Time-series prediction of global solar radiation and of photovoltaic energy production using artificial neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voyant, Cyril

    2011-01-01

    As Corsica is a non-interconnected island, its energy supply is very special case. Indeed, as all islands, a large part of the electricity production must be generated locally. Often, renewable energies are considered as a good solution to overcome the isolation problem. However, because of their intermittent nature, they are included in a limited way in power systems. Thus, it is necessary to use in addition other energy productions, with main problem the management of the dispatch between these two energy types. This study is related to the solar and PV prediction in order to quantify available energy and to allow the optimal transition between intermittent and conventional energies sources. Throughout this work, we tested different techniques of prediction concerning four horizons interesting the power manager: d+1; h+24, h+1 and m+5. After all these manipulations, we can conclude that according the considered horizon, the prioritization of the different predictors varies. Note that for the d+1 horizon, it is interesting to use an approach based on neural network being careful to make stationary the time series, and to use exogenous variables. For the h+1 horizon, a hybrid methodology combining the robustness of the autoregressive models and the non-linearity of the connectionist models provides satisfactory results. For the h+24 case, neural networks with multiple outputs give very good results. About the m+5 horizon, our conclusions are different. Thus, even if neural networks are the most effective, the simplicity and the relatively good results shown by the persistence-based approach, lead us to recommend it. All the proposed methodologies and results are complementary to the prediction studies available in the literature. In conclusion, we can say that methodologies developed could eventually be included as prediction tools in the global command - control systems of energy sources. (author) [fr

  2. Eyelid closure at death

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A D Macleod

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim: To observe the incidence of full or partial eyelid closure at death. Materials and Methods: The presence of ptosis was recorded in 100 consecutive hospice patient deaths. Results: Majority (63% of the patients died with their eyes fully closed, however, 37% had bilateral ptosis at death, with incomplete eye closure. In this study, central nervous system tumor involvement and/or acute hepatic encephalopathy appeared to be pre-mortem risk factors of bilateral ptosis at death. Conclusion: Organicity and not psychogenicity is, therefore, the likely etiology of failure of full eyelid closure at death.

  3. Ethanol induces apoptotic death of developing beta-endorphin neurons via suppression of cyclic adenosine monophosphate production and activation of transforming growth factor-beta1-linked apoptotic signaling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Cui Ping; Kuhn, Peter; Chaturvedi, Kirti; Boyadjieva, Nadka; Sarkar, Dipak K

    2006-03-01

    The mechanism by which ethanol induces beta-endorphin (beta-EP) neuronal death during the developmental period was determined using fetal rat hypothalamic cells in primary cultures. The addition of ethanol to hypothalamic cell cultures stimulated apoptotic cell death of beta-EP neurons by increasing caspase-3 activity. Ethanol lowered the levels of adenylyl cyclase (AC)7 mRNA, AC8 mRNA, and/or cAMP in hypothalamic cells, whereas a cAMP analog blocked the apoptotic action of ethanol on beta-EP neurons. The AC inhibitor dideoxyadenosine (DDA) increased cell apoptosis and reduced the number of beta-EP neurons, and it potentiated the apoptotic action of ethanol on these neurons. beta-EP neurons in hypothalamic cultures showed immunoreactivity to transforming growth factor-beta1 (TGF-beta1) protein. Ethanol and DDA increased TGF-beta1 production and/or release from hypothalamic cells. A cAMP analog blocked the activation by ethanol of TGF-beta1 in these cells. TGF-beta1 increased apoptosis of beta-EP neurons, but it did not potentiate the action of ethanol or DDA actions on these neurons. TGF-beta1 neutralizing antibody blocked the apoptotic action of ethanol on beta-EP neurons. Determination of TGF-beta1-controlled cell apoptosis regulatory gene levels in hypothalamic cell cultures and in isolated beta-EP neurons indicated that ethanol, TGF-beta1, and DDA similarly alter the expression of these genes in these cells. These data suggest that ethanol increases beta-EP neuronal death during the developmental period by cellular mechanisms involving, at least partly, the suppression of cAMP production and activation of TGF-beta1-linked apoptotic signaling.

  4. Predicting Consumer Biomass, Size-Structure, Production, Catch Potential, Responses to Fishing and Associated Uncertainties in the World's Marine Ecosystems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon Jennings

    Full Text Available Existing estimates of fish and consumer biomass in the world's oceans are disparate. This creates uncertainty about the roles of fish and other consumers in biogeochemical cycles and ecosystem processes, the extent of human and environmental impacts and fishery potential. We develop and use a size-based macroecological model to assess the effects of parameter uncertainty on predicted consumer biomass, production and distribution. Resulting uncertainty is large (e.g. median global biomass 4.9 billion tonnes for consumers weighing 1 g to 1000 kg; 50% uncertainty intervals of 2 to 10.4 billion tonnes; 90% uncertainty intervals of 0.3 to 26.1 billion tonnes and driven primarily by uncertainty in trophic transfer efficiency and its relationship with predator-prey body mass ratios. Even the upper uncertainty intervals for global predictions of consumer biomass demonstrate the remarkable scarcity of marine consumers, with less than one part in 30 million by volume of the global oceans comprising tissue of macroscopic animals. Thus the apparently high densities of marine life seen in surface and coastal waters and frequently visited abundance hotspots will likely give many in society a false impression of the abundance of marine animals. Unexploited baseline biomass predictions from the simple macroecological model were used to calibrate a more complex size- and trait-based model to estimate fisheries yield and impacts. Yields are highly dependent on baseline biomass and fisheries selectivity. Predicted global sustainable fisheries yield increases ≈4 fold when smaller individuals (< 20 cm from species of maximum mass < 1 kg are targeted in all oceans, but the predicted yields would rarely be accessible in practice and this fishing strategy leads to the collapse of larger species if fishing mortality rates on different size classes cannot be decoupled. Our analyses show that models with minimal parameter demands that are based on a few established

  5. Integration of in vitro biorelevant dissolution and in silico PBPK model of carvedilol to predict bioequivalence of oral drug products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibarra, Manuel; Valiante, Cristian; Sopeña, Patricia; Schiavo, Alejandra; Lorier, Marianela; Vázquez, Marta; Fagiolino, Pietro

    2018-06-15

    Bioequivalence implementation in developing countries where a high proportion of similar drug products are being marketed has found several obstacles, impeding regulatory agencies to move forward with this policy. Biopharmaceutical quality of these products, several of which are massively prescribed, remains unknown. In this context, an in vitro-in silico-in vivo approach is proposed as a mean to screen product performance and target specific formulations for bioequivalence assessment. By coupling in vitro biorelevant dissolution testing in USP-4 Apparatus (flow-through cell) with physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling in PK-Sim® software (Bayer, Germany), the performance of seven similar products of carvedilol tablets containing 25 mg available in the Uruguayan market were compared with the brand-name drug Dilatrend®. In silico simulations for Dilatrend® were compared with published results of bioequivalence studies performed in fasting conditions allowing model development through a learning and confirming process. Single-dose pharmacokinetic profiles were then simulated for the brand-name drug and two similar drug products selected according to in vitro observations, in a virtual Caucasian population of 1000 subjects (50% male, aged between 18 and 50 years with standard body-weights). Population bioequivalence ratios were estimated revealing that in vitro differences in drug release would have a major impact in carvedilol maximum plasma concentration, leading to a non-bioequivalence outcome. Predictions support the need to perform in vivo bioequivalence for these products of extensive use. Application of the in vitro-in silico-in vivo approach stands as an interesting alternative to tackle and reduce drug product variability in biopharmaceutical quality. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Lactation Curve Pattern and Prediction of Milk Production Performance in Crossbred Cows

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suresh Jingar

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Data pertaining to 11728 test-day daily milk yields of normal and mastitis Karan Fries cows were collected from the institute herd and divided as mastitis and nonmastitis and parity-wise. The data of lactation curves of the normal and mastitis crossbred cows was analyzed using gamma type function. FTDMY in normal and mastitis cows showed an increasing trend from TD-1 to TD-4 and a gradual decrease (P<0.01 thereafter until the end of lactation (TD-21 in different parities. The FTDMY was maximum (peak yield in the fourth parity. Parity-wise lactation curve revealed a decrease in persistency, steeper decline in descending slope (c, and steeper increase in ascending slope (b from 1st to 5th and above parity. The higher coefficient of determination (R2 and lower root mean square error (RMSE indicated goodness and accuracy of the model for the prediction of milk prediction performance under field conditions. Clinical mastitis resulted in a significantly higher loss of milk yield (P<0.05. The FTDMY was maximum (P<0.05 in the fourth parity in comparison to the rest of parity. It is demonstrated that gamma type function can give the best fit lactation curve in normal and mastitis infected crossbred cows.

  7. VSRR - Provisional monthly and 12-month ending number of live births, deaths and infant deaths: United States

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/vsrr/provisional-tables.htm Monthly and 12 month-ending provisional counts of births, deaths and infant deaths are provided for the...

  8. Como o ecocardiograma pode ser útil em predizer a morte em crianças com cardiomiopatia dilatada idiopática? How can the echocardiogram be useful for predicting death in children with idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vitor Manuel Pereira Azevedo

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Determinar os fatores preditores ecocardiográficos de morte em crianças com cardiomiopatia dilatada idiopática. MÉTODOS: Estudo retrospectivo de 148 crianças com cardiomiopatia dilatada idiopática diagnosticadas entre setembro/1979 a março/2003. Critérios para inclusão: insuficiência cardíaca e redução da contratilidade no ecocardiograma, na ausência de cardiopatia congênita ou secundária. Foram analisados 470 exames, durante 244,8 meses de evolução. Parâmetros analisados: dimensão do átrio esquerdo (DAE, relação átrio esquerdo/aorta (DAE/Ao, dimensão sistólica (DSVE e diastólica (DDVE do VE, massa do VE (massa, dimensão do ventrículo direito (DVD, fração de ejeção do VE (FE, percentagem de encurtamento do VE (%EC, gravidade da insuficiência das valvas atrioventriculares e da valva pulmonar e medida da pressão sistólica (PsVD e diastólica (PdVD do VD. Foi considerado significativo erro alfa OBJECTIVE: To determine the echocardiographic predicting factors of death in children with idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy. METHODS: A retrospective study of 148 children with idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy diagnosed between September 1979 and March 2003 was carried out. The inclusion criteria were as follows: heart failure and a reduction in contractility on the echocardiogram in the absence of congenital or secondary heart disease. Four hundred and seventy examinations during a period of 244.8 months of evolution were analyzed. The following parameters were assessed: left atrial dimension (LAD; left atrium/aorta ratio (LAD/Ao; left ventricular systolic (LVSD and diastolic (LVDD dimensions; left ventricular mass (LVmass; right ventricular dimension (RVD; left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF; left ventricular shortening fraction (% SH; severity of the insufficiency of the atrioventricular and pulmonary valves; and right ventricular systolic (RVSP and diastolic (RVDP pressures. The significance level

  9. Automated information system for analysis and prediction of production situations in blast furnace plant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavrov, V. V.; Spirin, N. A.

    2016-09-01

    Advances in modern science and technology are inherently connected with the development, implementation, and widespread use of computer systems based on mathematical modeling. Algorithms and computer systems are gaining practical significance solving a range of process tasks in metallurgy of MES-level (Manufacturing Execution Systems - systems controlling industrial process) of modern automated information systems at the largest iron and steel enterprises in Russia. This fact determines the necessity to develop information-modeling systems based on mathematical models that will take into account the physics of the process, the basics of heat and mass exchange, the laws of energy conservation, and also the peculiarities of the impact of technological and standard characteristics of raw materials on the manufacturing process data. Special attention in this set of operations for metallurgic production is devoted to blast-furnace production, as it consumes the greatest amount of energy, up to 50% of the fuel used in ferrous metallurgy. The paper deals with the requirements, structure and architecture of BF Process Engineer's Automated Workstation (AWS), a computer decision support system of MES Level implemented in the ICS of the Blast Furnace Plant at Magnitogorsk Iron and Steel Works. It presents a brief description of main model subsystems as well as assumptions made in the process of mathematical modelling. Application of the developed system allows the engineering and process staff to analyze online production situations in the blast furnace plant, to solve a number of process tasks related to control of heat, gas dynamics and slag conditions of blast-furnace smelting as well as to calculate the optimal composition of blast-furnace slag, which eventually results in increasing technical and economic performance of blast-furnace production.

  10. Winter climate and plant productivity predict abundances of small herbivores in central Europe

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Tkadlec, Emil; Zbořil, J.; Losík, J.; Gregor, P.; Lisická, L.

    2006-01-01

    Roč. 32, č. 2 (2006), s. 99-108 ISSN 0936-577X R&D Projects: GA ČR GA206/04/2003 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60930519 Keywords : climate effects * common vole * European hare * NAO * plant productivity * crop yield Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 1.519, year: 2006 http://www.int-res.com/articles/cr_oa/c032p099.pdf

  11. Prediction of operational variables involved in the Production Process of Crude Oil by Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Lowy

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available (Received: 2015/04/16 - Accepted: 2015/05/29This paper presents the oil deposit and operational variables that influence the implementation of the Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD process for the Production of Heavy and Extra-heavy Crude Oil. This process consists of drilling two parallel horizontal wells, one above the other, where the upper well is used for steam injection and the lower well is used for production. The efficiency of the process is greatly affected by the deposit and operating parameters (vertical spacing of wells, injection pressure, preheating period, among others. Furthermore, the prediction of the maximum rate of oil extraction was determined using an example with currently available real data of Block 20 of the Pungarayacu Field.

  12. Predicting Success in Product Development: The Application of Principal Component Analysis to Categorical Data and Binomial Logistic Regression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Glauco H.S. Mendes

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Critical success factors in new product development (NPD in the Brazilian small and medium enterprises (SMEs are identified and analyzed. Critical success factors are best practices that can be used to improve NPD management and performance in a company. However, the traditional method for identifying these factors is survey methods. Subsequently, the collected data are reduced through traditional multivariate analysis. The objective of this work is to develop a logistic regression model for predicting the success or failure of the new product development. This model allows for an evaluation and prioritization of resource commitments. The results will be helpful for guiding management actions, as one way to improve NPD performance in those industries.

  13. Perioperative plasma concentrations of stable nitric oxide products are predictive of cognitive dysfunction after laparoscopic cholecystectomy.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Iohom, G

    2012-02-03

    In this study our objectives were to determine the incidence of postoperative cognitive dysfunction (POCD) after laparoscopic cholecystectomy under sevoflurane anesthesia in patients aged >40 and <85 yr and to examine the associations between plasma concentrations of i) S-100beta protein and ii) stable nitric oxide (NO) products and POCD in this clinical setting. Neuropsychological tests were performed on 42 ASA physical status I-II patients the day before, and 4 days and 6 wk after surgery. Patient spouses (n = 13) were studied as controls. Cognitive dysfunction was defined as deficit in one or more cognitive domain(s). Serial measurements of serum concentrations of S-100beta protein and plasma concentrations of stable NO products (nitrate\\/nitrite, NOx) were performed perioperatively. Four days after surgery, new cognitive deficit was present in 16 (40%) patients and in 1 (7%) control subject (P = 0.01). Six weeks postoperatively, new cognitive deficit was present in 21 (53%) patients and 3 (23%) control subjects (P = 0.03). Compared with the "no deficit" group, patients who demonstrated a new cognitive deficit 4 days postoperatively had larger plasma NOx at each perioperative time point (P < 0.05 for each time point). Serum S-100beta protein concentrations were similar in the 2 groups. In conclusion, preoperative (and postoperative) plasma concentrations of stable NO products (but not S-100beta) are associated with early POCD. The former represents a potential biochemical predictor of POCD.

  14. Quantifying and predicting meat and meat products quality attributes using electromagnetic waves: an overview.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damez, Jean-Louis; Clerjon, Sylvie

    2013-12-01

    The meat industry needs reliable meat quality information throughout the production process in order to guarantee high-quality meat products for consumers. Besides laboratory researches, food scientists often try to adapt their tools to industrial conditions and easy handling devices useable on-line and in slaughterhouses already exist. This paper overviews the recently developed approaches and latest research efforts related to assessing the quality of different meat products by electromagnetic waves and examines the potential for their deployment. The main meat quality traits that can be assessed using electromagnetic waves are sensory characteristics, chemical composition, physicochemical properties, health-protecting properties, nutritional characteristics and safety. A wide range of techniques, from low frequency, high frequency impedance measurement, microwaves, NMR, IR and UV light, to X-ray interaction, involves a wide range of physical interactions between the electromagnetic wave and the sample. Some of these techniques are now in a period of transition between experimental and applied utilization and several sensors and instruments are reviewed. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Beliefs about the Potential Impacts of Exploiting Non-Timber Forest Products Predict Voluntary Participation in Monitoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dantas Brites, Alice; Morsello, Carla

    2017-06-01

    Harvesting and trading non-timber forest products is advocated as a win-win strategy for conservation and development, yet it can produce negative ecological and socioeconomic impacts. Hence, monitoring exploitation outcomes is essential, and participatory monitoring has been suggested to be the most suitable approach. Among possible approaches, participatory monitoring is preferred because it is likely to increase people's awareness and beliefs regarding impacts or potential impacts, thus inducing behavioral changes, although the evidence in this regard is contradictory. We therefore evaluated whether people's beliefs about the potential ecological and socioeconomic impacts of non-timber forest product exploitation increased their likelihood of volunteering to monitor. We studied a community of forest inhabitants in the Brazilian Amazon who harvested and traded a commercially important non-timber forest product. Two methods of data gathering were employed: (i) a survey of 166 adults (51 households) to evaluate people's beliefs and their stated intention to engage in four different monitoring tasks and (ii) four pilot monitoring tasks to evaluate who actually participated. Based on mixed-effects regressions, the results indicated that beliefs regarding both types of impacts could predict participation in certain tasks, although gender, age and schooling were occasionally stronger predictors. On average, people had stronger beliefs about potential socioeconomic impacts than about potential ecological impacts, with the former also predicting participation in ecological data gathering. This finding reinforces the importance of monitoring both types of impacts to help achieve the win-win outcomes originally proposed by non-timber forest product trade initiatives.

  16. Beliefs about the Potential Impacts of Exploiting Non-Timber Forest Products Predict Voluntary Participation in Monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dantas Brites, Alice; Morsello, Carla

    2017-06-01

    Harvesting and trading non-timber forest products is advocated as a win-win strategy for conservation and development, yet it can produce negative ecological and socioeconomic impacts. Hence, monitoring exploitation outcomes is essential, and participatory monitoring has been suggested to be the most suitable approach. Among possible approaches, participatory monitoring is preferred because it is likely to increase people's awareness and beliefs regarding impacts or potential impacts, thus inducing behavioral changes, although the evidence in this regard is contradictory. We therefore evaluated whether people's beliefs about the potential ecological and socioeconomic impacts of non-timber forest product exploitation increased their likelihood of volunteering to monitor. We studied a community of forest inhabitants in the Brazilian Amazon who harvested and traded a commercially important non-timber forest product. Two methods of data gathering were employed: (i) a survey of 166 adults (51 households) to evaluate people's beliefs and their stated intention to engage in four different monitoring tasks and (ii) four pilot monitoring tasks to evaluate who actually participated. Based on mixed-effects regressions, the results indicated that beliefs regarding both types of impacts could predict participation in certain tasks, although gender, age and schooling were occasionally stronger predictors. On average, people had stronger beliefs about potential socioeconomic impacts than about potential ecological impacts, with the former also predicting participation in ecological data gathering. This finding reinforces the importance of monitoring both types of impacts to help achieve the win-win outcomes originally proposed by non-timber forest product trade initiatives.

  17. Wheat: Its water use, production and disease detection and prediction. [Kansas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanemasu, E. T. (Principal Investigator); Lenhert, D.; Niblett, C.; Manges, H.; Eversmeyer, M. G.

    1974-01-01

    The author has identified the following significant results. Discussed in this report are: (1) the effects of wheat disease on water use and yield; and (2) the use of ERTS-1 imagery in the evaluation of wheat growth and in the detection of disease severity. Leaf area index was linearly correlated with ratios MSS4:MSS5 and MSS5:MSS6. In an area of severe wheat streak mosaic virus infected fields, correlations of ERTS-1 digital counts with wheat yields and disease severity levels were significant at the 5% level for MSS bands 4 and 5 and band ratios 4/6 and 4/7. Data collection platforms were used to gather meteorological data for the early prediction of rust severity and economic loss.

  18. Computational and experimental prediction of dust production in pebble bed reactors, Part II

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mie Hiruta; Gannon Johnson; Maziar Rostamian; Gabriel P. Potirniche; Abderrafi M. Ougouag; Massimo Bertino; Louis Franzel; Akira Tokuhiro

    2013-10-01

    This paper is the continuation of Part I, which describes the high temperature and high pressure helium environment wear tests of graphite–graphite in frictional contact. In the present work, it has been attempted to simulate a Pebble Bed Reactor core environment as compared to Part I. The experimental apparatus, which is a custom-designed tribometer, is capable of performing wear tests at PBR relevant higher temperatures and pressures under a helium environment. This environment facilitates prediction of wear mass loss of graphite as dust particulates from the pebble bed. The experimental results of high temperature helium environment are used to anticipate the amount of wear mass produced in a pebble bed nuclear reactor.

  19. Accuracy of the paracetamol-aminotransferase multiplication product to predict hepatotoxicity in modified-release paracetamol overdose.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Anselm; Sivilotti, Marco L A; Graudins, Andis

    2017-06-01

    The paracetamol-aminotransferase multiplication product (APAP × ALT) is a risk predictor of hepatotoxicity that is somewhat independent of time and type of ingestion. However, its accuracy following ingestion of modified-release formulations is not known, as the product has been derived and validated after immediate-release paracetamol overdoses. The aim of this retrospective cohort study was to evaluate the accuracy of the multiplication product to predict hepatotoxicity in a cohort of patients with modified-release paracetamol overdose. We assessed all patients with modified-release paracetamol overdose presenting to our hospital network from October 2009 to July 2016. Ingestion of a modified-release formulation was identified by patient self-report or retrieval of the original container. Hepatotoxicity was defined as peak alanine aminotransferase ≥1000 IU/L, and acute liver injury (ALI) as a doubling of baseline ALT to more than 50 IU/L. Of 1989 paracetamol overdose presentations, we identified 73 modified-release paracetamol exposures treated with acetylcysteine. Five patients developed hepatotoxicity, including one who received acetylcysteine within eight hours of an acute ingestion. No patient with an initial multiplication product paracetamol overdose treated with acetylcysteine, the paracetamol-aminotransferase multiplication product demonstrated similar accuracy and temporal profile to previous reports involving mostly immediate-release formulations. Above a cut-point of 10,000 mg/L × IU/L, it was very strongly associated with the development of acute liver injury and hepatotoxicity, especially when calculated more than eight hours post-ingestion. When below 1500 mg/L × IU/L the likelihood of developing hepatotoxicity was very low. Persistently high serial multiplication product calculations were associated with the greatest risk of hepatotoxicity.

  20. Global gradients in vertebrate diversity predicted by historical area-productivity dynamics and contemporary environment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Walter Jetz

    Full Text Available Broad-scale geographic gradients in species richness have now been extensively documented, but their historical underpinning is still not well understood. While the importance of productivity, temperature, and a scale dependence of the determinants of diversity is broadly acknowledged, we argue here that limitation to a single analysis scale and data pseudo-replication have impeded an integrated evolutionary and ecological understanding of diversity gradients. We develop and apply a hierarchical analysis framework for global diversity gradients that incorporates an explicit accounting of past environmental variation and provides an appropriate measurement of richness. Due to environmental niche conservatism, organisms generally reside in climatically defined bioregions, or "evolutionary arenas," characterized by in situ speciation and extinction. These bioregions differ in age and their total productivity and have varied over time in area and energy available for diversification. We show that, consistently across the four major terrestrial vertebrate groups, current-day species richness of the world's main 32 bioregions is best explained by a model that integrates area and productivity over geological time together with temperature. Adding finer scale variation in energy availability as an ecological predictor of within-bioregional patterns of richness explains much of the remaining global variation in richness at the 110 km grain. These results highlight the separate evolutionary and ecological effects of energy availability and provide a first conceptual and empirical integration of the key drivers of broad-scale richness gradients. Avoiding the pseudo-replication that hampers the evolutionary interpretation of non-hierarchical macroecological analyses, our findings integrate evolutionary and ecological mechanisms at their most relevant scales and offer a new synthesis regarding global diversity gradients.

  1. Prediction Algorithms and Methods of Registering the Products on Warranty by Using RFID Technologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrian Graur

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The RFID technology (Radio FrequencyIdentifi - cation is used in the view of data transmission,by means of mobile transponders, known as tags and forreceiving that information, by means of reading devices,known as readers. Radio Frequency Identification (RFIDhas become specific for tracking the items and carryingout solutions of data achieving within the supply chains ofenterprises, factories, trading companies or automationtechnologies. This present paper proposes creation of acomputerized system dedicated to selling companies,manufacturers and service units, with a view of usingproducts’ information and estimating by a predictionalgorithm the return time towards the customers ofchanged or repaired products being on warranty or postwarrantytime.

  2. Inhibitors of Succinate: Quinone Reductase/Complex II Regulate Production of Mitochondrial Reactive Oxygen Species and Protect Normal Cells from Ischemic Damage but Induce Specific Cancer Cell Death

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Ralph, S.J.; Moreno-Sanchez, R.; Neužil, Jiří; Rodriguez-Enriquez, S.

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 28, č. 11 (2011), s. 2695-2730 ISSN 0724-8741 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z50520701 Keywords : Mitocans * SDH/Complex II * mitochondrial ROS production Subject RIV: CE - Biochemistry Impact factor: 4.093, year: 2011

  3. T2K Replica Target Hadron Production Measurements in NA61/SHINE and T2K Neutrino Flux Predictions

    CERN Document Server

    AUTHOR|(SzGeCERN)710687

    Accelerator based neutrino experiments generate their neutrino beams by impinging high energy protons on thick targets. The neutrino beam predictions are thus based on modeling the interactions of the beam protons inside the targets. Different hadronic models can be used with different accuracies depending on the energy range of the incident protons and on the target material. Nevertheless, none of the models can be seen as perfectly describing all different interactions. In order to reach high precision neutrino flux predictions, it is thus mandatory to be able to test and constrain the models with hadron production measurements. The T2K experiment in Japan uses the ancillary NA61/SHINE facility at CERN to constrain the production of hadrons resulting from the interactions of proton beam particles impinging on a 90cm long graphite target. Data taken by NA61/SHINE with a 30 GeV proton beam on a thin (4% interaction length) graphite target have been recorded in 2007 and 2009. They have been analysed and extens...

  4. NLO predictions for the production of a (750 GeV) spin-two particle at the LHC

    CERN Document Server

    Das, Goutam; Hirschi, Valentin; Maltoni, Fabio; Shao, Hua-Sheng

    2017-07-10

    We obtain predictions accurate at the next-to-leading order in QCD for the production of a generic spin-two particle in the most relevant channels at the LHC: production in association with colored particles (inclusive, one jet, two jets and $t\\bar t$), with vector bosons ($Z,W^\\pm,\\gamma$) and with the Higgs boson. We present total and differential cross sections as well as branching ratios corresponding to a spin-2 particle of 750 GeV of mass, possibly with non-universal couplings to standard model particles, at 13 TeV of center-of-mass energy. We find that the next-to-leading order corrections give rise to sizeable $K$ factors for many channels, in some cases exposing the unitarity-violating behaviour of non-universal couplings scenarios, and in general greatly reduce the theoretical uncertainties. Our predictions are publicly available in the \\amc\\ framework and can, therefore, be directly used in experimental simulations for any value of the mass and couplings.

  5. Predicting Consumer Biomass, Size-Structure, Production, Catch Potential, Responses to Fishing and Associated Uncertainties in the World's Marine Ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jennings, Simon; Collingridge, Kate

    2015-01-01

    Existing estimates of fish and consumer biomass in the world's oceans are disparate. This creates uncertainty about the roles of fish and other consumers in biogeochemical cycles and ecosystem processes, the extent of human and environmental impacts and fishery potential. We