WorldWideScience

Sample records for current sea level

  1. Accelerated sea level rise and Florida Current transport

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Park

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The Florida Current is the headwater of the Gulf Stream and is a component of the North Atlantic western boundary current from which a geostrophic balance between sea surface height and mass transport directly influence coastal sea levels along the Florida Straits. A linear regression of daily Florida Current transport estimates does not find a significant change in transport over the last decade; however, a nonlinear trend extracted from empirical mode decomposition (EMD suggests a 3 Sv decline in mean transport. This decline is consistent with observed tide gauge records in Florida Bay and the straits exhibiting an acceleration of mean sea level (MSL rise over the decade. It is not known whether this recent change represents natural variability or the onset of the anticipated secular decline in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC; nonetheless, such changes have direct impacts on the sensitive ecological systems of the Everglades as well as the climate of western Europe and eastern North America.

  2. Accelerated sea level rise and Florida Current transport

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Park

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The Florida Current is the headwater of the Gulf Stream and is a component of the North Atlantic western boundary current from which a geostrophic balance between sea surface height and mass transport directly influence coastal sea levels along the Florida Straits. A linear regression of daily Florida Current transport estimates does not find a significant change in transport over the last decade, however, a nonlinear trend extracted from empirical mode decomposition suggests a 3 Sv decline in mean transport. This decline is consistent with observed tide gauge records in Florida Bay and the Straits, all exhibiting an acceleration of mean sea level rise over the decade. It is not known whether this recent change represents natural variability or the onset of the anticipated secular decline in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, nonetheless, such changes have direct impacts on the sensitive ecological systems of the Everglades as well as the climate of western Europe and eastern North America.

  3. Seasonal cycle of sea level and currents along the coast of India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Shankar, D.

    ON OCEAN RESEARCH IN INDIA Seasonal cycle of sea level and currents along the coast of India D. Shankar National institute of Oceanography, Dona Paula, Goa 403 004, India A framework involving long baroclinic waves, which treats the north Indian Ocean as a... to be the absence of salinity variation in these models. The large inflow of freshwater into the seas around India forces large changes in salinity, and hence, in coastal sea level. THE surface of the sea deforms continuously. Its level, measured relative...

  4. Characteristic Features of Sea Level Series Analysis in the World Ocean Current Climatic Eustasy Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metreveli, G.; Tsivtsivadze, N.; Tavartqiladze, K.; Dokhnadze, G.; Lagidze, L.; Motsonelidze, N.

    2012-04-01

    Climatic eustasy - sea level long-term rise or decrease, is the result of ocean waters thermal expansion and the freshwater balance between land and ocean. This phenomenon accompanies climate change with some delay and like air temperature changes is an ongoing process. It is positive in warm climatic cycles and vice versa. The global climate warming, has provoked current climatic eustasy, which is started in high Northern latitudes in second part of 1890 's, and in secondary ones (basins of the Mediterranean and Black Seas)- in 1915-1923. In 2010 it caused the sea level raise at these latitudes at 0.3-0.4 m, but in the basins of these seas at 0.15 -0.20 m respectively. Climatic eustasy cycles and their continuity significantly influence on the comfortable environment forming process for living organisms in the sea and the coast. Therefore, the study of fundamental characteristics of this phenomena and its forecast in the near future (2025-2030) is highly topical issues. The solution of mentioned problems, with high precision and accuracy, is possible using "sea levels' long statistic series", combined with similar series of air and sea temperatures. The "long" is referred to as levels series if they are composed by two fragments of statistically sufficient length. First one contains information covering the period of negative eustasy, but the second- positive one. Before the using, from the fragments, the "noises", accompanying climatic fluctuations, various short-term trials and errors associated with data collection and processing have to be excluded. With special care the geological trend, caused by the altitude displacement of the coast, carried a data collection system, also should be excluded from them. Out of processed fragments, by the relevant methods, the amount of negative (Hn) and positive (Hp) eustasies, with precision of mm/year is determined. The sum of the absolute value of latter ones is the absolute eustasy (Ha), representing the local rate of

  5. Decadal-scale sea level rise acceleration along the Florida Atlantic coast and its relations to sea level variability along the Florida Current

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wdowinski, S.; Thompson, P. R.; Mitchum, G. T.; Park, J.

    2015-12-01

    The US Atlantic coast is one of the most vulnerable areas to sea level rise (SLR) due to its low elevation, large population concentrations, and economic importance. Further vulnerability arises from accelerating rates of SLR, which began in the early 2000's and caused a significant increase in flooding frequency in several coastal communities. Several studies have suggested that the accelerating SLR rates are due to the slowing down of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, in particular, a weakening of the Gulf Stream (GS). However, there are no direct observations that link the GS conditions and high sea levels along the coast. In this study we use satellite altimetry, tide gauge, and Florida Current (FC) cable data to explore possible relations between the recent SLR rate increase along the Florida Atlantic coast and various dynamical processes in the GS/FC system. Preliminary calculations indicate a good agreement between coastal sea level and nearshore altimetry series (R = 0.76-0.8) suggesting that SSH gradients from altimetry may be useful for assessing the dynamics associated with the coastal sea level change. Here we focus on spatio-temporal SSH changes along the two satellite passes located closest to the Florida Atlantic coast. Our results indicate an intriguing transition in SSH behavior around 2004-5. Prior to 2004, anomalous low coastal SSH events (strong FC) occurred every 3-5 years in correlation with warm ENSO events. After 2004, the strong relationship between ENSO and the gradient across the FC vanishes, while the mean sea level across the current increases. The observed SSH anomaly transition around 2004-5 correlates well with the initiation of accelerated rates of coastal SLR, suggesting that the decadal scale SLR acceleration has occurred during weak FC conditions. However, the forcing of this transition and the role of mean sea level variability, which is of comparable magnitude to variability in the gradient, remain unexplained.

  6. Sea level change

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Church, J.A.; Clark, P.U.; Cazenave, A.; Gregory, J.M.; Jevrejeva, S.; Levermann, A.; Merrifield, M.A.; Milne, G.A.; Nerem, R.S.; Nunn, P.D.; Payne, A.J.; Pfeffer, W.T.; Stammer, D.; Unnikrishnan, A.S.

    This chapter considers changes in global mean sea level, regional sea level, sea level extremes, and waves. Confidence in projections of global mean sea level rise has increased since the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) because of the improved...

  7. Current state and future perspectives on coupled ice-sheet – sea-level modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Boer, B.; Stocchi, P.; Whitehouse, P.L.; van de Wal, R.S.W.

    2017-01-01

    The interaction between ice-sheet growth and retreat and sea-level change has been an established fieldof research for many years. However, recent advances in numerical modelling have shed new light on theprecise interaction of marine ice sheets with the change in near-field sea level, and the

  8. Sea level and currents in the upper reaches of the Cochin estuarine system during October 2000

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Srinivas, K.; Revichandran, C.; Asharaf, T.T.M.; Thottam, T.J.; Maheswaran, P.A.; Murukesh, N.

    of the Cochin estuarine system were found to be of a mixed, predominantly semi-diurnal form during the month. The non-tidal sea level at the same location, showed an overall drop of nearly 9 cm during the period. Spectral analysis of the non-tidal sea level...

  9. Arctic Sea Level Reconstruction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svendsen, Peter Limkilde

    Reconstruction of historical Arctic sea level is very difficult due to the limited coverage and quality of tide gauge and altimetry data in the area. This thesis addresses many of these issues, and discusses strategies to help achieve a stable and plausible reconstruction of Arctic sea level from...... 1950 to today.The primary record of historical sea level, on the order of several decades to a few centuries, is tide gauges. Tide gauge records from around the world are collected in the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) database, and includes data along the Arctic coasts. A reasonable...... amount of data is available along the Norwegian and Russian coasts since 1950, and most published research on Arctic sea level extends cautiously from these areas. Very little tide gauge data is available elsewhere in the Arctic, and records of a length of several decades,as generally recommended for sea...

  10. Sea Level Rise Data Discovery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quach, N.; Huang, T.; Boening, C.; Gill, K. M.

    2016-12-01

    Research related to sea level rise crosses multiple disciplines from sea ice to land hydrology. The NASA Sea Level Change Portal (SLCP) is a one-stop source for current sea level change information and data, including interactive tools for accessing and viewing regional data, a virtual dashboard of sea level indicators, and ongoing updates through a suite of editorial products that include content articles, graphics, videos, and animations. The architecture behind the SLCP makes it possible to integrate web content and data relevant to sea level change that are archived across various data centers as well as new data generated by sea level change principal investigators. The Extensible Data Gateway Environment (EDGE) is incorporated into the SLCP architecture to provide a unified platform for web content and science data discovery. EDGE is a data integration platform designed to facilitate high-performance geospatial data discovery and access with the ability to support multi-metadata standard specifications. EDGE has the capability to retrieve data from one or more sources and package the resulting sets into a single response to the requestor. With this unified endpoint, the Data Analysis Tool that is available on the SLCP can retrieve dataset and granule level metadata as well as perform geospatial search on the data. This talk focuses on the architecture that makes it possible to seamlessly integrate and enable discovery of disparate data relevant to sea level rise.

  11. Current Land Subsidence and Sea Level Rise along the North American Coastal Region: Observations from 10-Year (2005-2014) Closely-Spaced GPS and Tide Gauge Stations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, L.; Yu, J.; Kearns, T.; Wang, G.

    2014-12-01

    Strong evidence has proved that the global sea-level is now rising at an increased rate and it is projected to continue to rise. However the rise of the sea-level is not uniform around the world. The local or relative sea-level rise will be of great concern to the coastal regions. The combination of the land subsidence and global sea-level rise causes the relative sea-level to rise. Relative sea-level rise increases the risk of flooding and wetland loss problems in near coastal areas, which in turn have important economic, environmental, and human health consequences for the heavily populated and ecologically important coastal region. However the role played by the coastal land subsidence is commonly absent during the discussion of sea-level rise problems. The sea-level can be measured in two ways: satellite altimetry and tide gauges. The sea-level measured by satellite is called the geocentric sea-level that is relative to earth center and the one measured by tide gauges is called local sea-level that is relative to the land. The tide gauge measurements of the local sea-level do not distinguish between whether the water is rising or the land is subsiding. In some coastal areas, land subsidence is occurring at a higher rate than the geocentric sea-level is rising. This can have a great local effect. GPS technology has proven to be efficient and accurate for measuring and tracking absolute land elevation change. There are about 300 publically available Continuously Operating Reference GPS Stations (CORS) within 15 km from the coastal line along North America. In this study, we use publicly available long-history (> 5 years) CORS data to derive current (2005-2014) coastal subsidence in North America. Absolute coastal sea-level rise will be determined by combing the land subsidence and relative sea-level measurements. This study shows that the relative sea-level of the Alaska area appears to be falling because the land is uplifting; this study also shows that the

  12. Contemporary sea level rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cazenave, Anny; Llovel, William

    2010-01-01

    Measuring sea level change and understanding its causes has considerably improved in the recent years, essentially because new in situ and remote sensing observations have become available. Here we report on most recent results on contemporary sea level rise. We first present sea level observations from tide gauges over the twentieth century and from satellite altimetry since the early 1990s. We next discuss the most recent progress made in quantifying the processes causing sea level change on timescales ranging from years to decades, i.e., thermal expansion of the oceans, land ice mass loss, and land water-storage change. We show that for the 1993-2007 time span, the sum of climate-related contributions (2.85 +/- 0.35 mm year(-1)) is only slightly less than altimetry-based sea level rise (3.3 +/- 0.4 mm year(-1)): approximately 30% of the observed rate of rise is due to ocean thermal expansion and approximately 55% results from land ice melt. Recent acceleration in glacier melting and ice mass loss from the ice sheets increases the latter contribution up to 80% for the past five years. We also review the main causes of regional variability in sea level trends: The dominant contribution results from nonuniform changes in ocean thermal expansion.

  13. Projecting future sea level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cayan, Daniel R.; Bromirski, Peter; Hayhoe, Katharine; Tyree, Mary; Dettinger, Mike; Flick, Reinhard

    2006-01-01

    California’s coastal observations and global model projections indicate that California’s open coast and estuaries will experience increasing sea levels over the next century. Sea level rise has affected much of the coast of California, including the Southern California coast, the Central California open coast, and the San Francisco Bay and upper estuary. These trends, quantified from a small set of California tide gages, have ranged from 10–20 centimeters (cm) (3.9–7.9 inches) per century, quite similar to that estimated for global mean sea level. So far, there is little evidence that the rate of rise has accelerated, and the rate of rise at California tide gages has actually flattened since 1980, but projections suggest substantial sea level rise may occur over the next century. Climate change simulations project a substantial rate of global sea level rise over the next century due to thermal expansion as the oceans warm and runoff from melting land-based snow and ice accelerates. Sea level rise projected from the models increases with the amount of warming. Relative to sea levels in 2000, by the 2070–2099 period, sea level rise projections range from 11–54 cm (4.3–21 in) for simulations following the lower (B1) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario, from 14–61 cm (5.5–24 in) for the middle-upper (A2) emission scenario, and from 17–72 cm (6.7–28 in) for the highest (A1fi) scenario. In addition to relatively steady secular trends, sea levels along the California coast undergo shorter period variability above or below predicted tide levels and changes associated with long-term trends. These variations are caused by weather events and by seasonal to decadal climate fluctuations over the Pacific Ocean that in turn affect the Pacific coast. Highest coastal sea levels have occurred when winter storms and Pacific climate disturbances, such as El Niño, have coincided with high astronomical tides. This study considers a range of projected future

  14. Mineralogy of Holocene Sediments from the Southwestern Black Sea Shelf (Turkey) in Relation to Provenance, Sea-level and Current Regimes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Emel BAYHAN; Mustafa ERG(I)N; Abidin TEMEL; Seref KESK(I)N

    2005-01-01

    Grain size and mineral composition of core sediments were used to investigate influences of various terrestrial and marine conditions,which have prevailed on the southwestern Black Sea shelf during the Holocene.Siliciclastic mud with small amounts of sand and gravel from nearby coastal hinterland is the principal sediment type,whereas sediments deposited near the shelf edge and the (I)stanbul Strait and off the Duru Lake (a paleo-river mouth)constitued large quantities of sand and gravel of both biogenic and terrigenic origin.Variable amounts of aragonite,1 nm-micas,quartz,feldspars,calcite and dolomite constitute the dominant non-clay minerals in bulk sediments.The clay mineral assemblage in the < 2 μm fraction is made up of smectite,illite,kaolinite and chlorite.Aragonite and calcite are mainly derived from benthic accumulations,whereas feldspars (mainly plagioclase) and smectite reflect magmaticvolcanic provenance and the distribution of 1 nm-micas and chlorite correlate with nearby metamorphic sources onland.Nevertheless,grain size and mineral distribution generally indicate a combination of effects of wind and wave climate,longshore and offshore cyclonic currents,changing sea-level stands and nearby source rock and morphological conditions.It is also suggested that at least part of clay minerals could be derived from the northwesterly Danube River input.

  15. ENSO to multi-decadal time scale changes in East Australian Current transports and Fort Denison sea level: Oceanic Rossby waves as the connecting mechanism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holbrook, Neil J.; Goodwin, Ian D.; McGregor, Shayne; Molina, Ernesto; Power, Scott B.

    2011-03-01

    The connection between East Australian Current (EAC) transport variability and Australia's east coast sea level has received little treatment in the literature. This is due in part to the complex interacting physical processes operating in the coastal zone combined with the sparsity of observations available to improve our understanding of these possible connections. This study demonstrates a statistically significant (at the >90% level) relationship between interannual to decadal time scale variations in observed estimates of the EAC transport changes and east coast sea level measured at the high-quality, long record Fort Denison tide-gauge in Sydney Harbour, Australia (33°51'18″S, 151°13'32″E). We further demonstrate, using a linear reduced-gravity ocean model, that ENSO to decadal time-scale variations and the ocean-adjusted multi-decadal trend (approx. 1 cm/decade) in observed sea level at Fort Denison are strongly connected to modulations of EAC transports by incoming westward propagating oceanic Rossby waves. We show that EAC transport and Fort Denison sea level vary in a manner expected from both Tasman Sea generated Rossby waves, which account for the interannual and multi-annual variability, and remotely forced (from east of New Zealand) Rossby wave connections through the mid-latitudes, accounting for the ocean-adjusted multi-decadal trend observed at the New South Wales coast - with the regional-Tasman Sea forcing explaining the greatest overall proportion of EAC transport and sea-level variances.

  16. SEA LEVEL (TOPEX/POSEIDON)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Sea level rise is caused by the thermal expansion of sea water due to climate warming and widespread melting of land ice. The TOPEX/POSEIDON mission a joint...

  17. Sea level and climate variations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oerlemans, J.

    1985-01-01

    Review paper, ESA Symposium on Application of Satellite Data to Climate Modelling. Alpbach (Austria) Sea level is an essential component of the climate system, on which many human activities in the coastal zone depend. Climate variations leading to changes in relative sea level are

  18. Waves, currents and sea level variations along the Letipea - Sillamäe coastal section of the southern Gulf of Finland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ülo Suursaar

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Variations in the hydrodynamic conditions were studied on the basis of 336 days of measurements with a Doppler current profiler. With wave data as a calibration reference, a semi-empirical hindcast of wave parameters is presented in the fetch-limited near-shore area for the period 1966-2008. A resultant 4-6 cm s-1 westward current dominated along the coast. Occasional fast sub-surface westward currents under modest wind forcing, as well as asymmetrical vertical profiles for westward and eastward currents indicated the influence of upwelling-related baroclinic coastal jets. The average frequency of upwelling was estimated at 17%; some of the events were identified in near-homothermic winter conditions on the basis of salinity and multi-layer flow records. While the mean sea level trend at Narva-Jõesuu roughly approximated the global estimates for 1899-2009, the annual maximum sea level increase was 5-8 mm yr-1. Both mean and maximum wave heights declined as a result of decreasing winds from the north.

  19. CO2 and sea level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Peter M.

    There is considerable discussion currently about the potential effects of carbon dioxide build-up in the atmosphere over the next several decades. The sources of information are two Government funded reports, one by the National Research Council (NRC), the other by the Environment Protection Agency (EPA), both were released within the last five months. The reports were described recently as being conservative, although the consequences of the resulting greenhouse effects are deemed inevitable. Atmospheric warming on a global scale of as much as 5°C cannot be avoided, only perhaps delayed by a few years at best (Environ. Sci. Technol, 18, 45A-46A, 1984). The cause is the burning of fossil fuels. Oil will not be too important because its supplies are predictably exhausted on the time scale of 50-100 years. Coal burning is considered as the main source of carbon dioxide. Among the more spectacular results of a global temperature rise over the next 100 years is the expected rise in sea level of a minimum of 70 cm (Oceanus, Winter, 1983/84). If the West Antarctic Ice Sheet breaks up and melts, the rise could be in the several meter range. Sea level rose only 15 cm in the past century.

  20. CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) Southern California v3.0 Phase 1 (100-year storm) sea-level rise 1.5 m: ocean currents projections

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Projected Hazard: Model-derived ocean current velocities (in meters per second) for the given storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario. Model Summary: The...

  1. CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) Southern California v3.0 Phase 1 (100-year storm) sea-level rise 0.0 m: ocean currents projections

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Projected Hazard: Model-derived ocean current velocities (in meters per second) for the given storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario. Model Summary: The...

  2. CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) Southern California v3.0 Phase 1 (100-year storm) sea-level rise 0.5 m: ocean currents projections

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Projected Hazard: Model-derived ocean current velocities (in meters per second) for the given storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario. Model Summary: The...

  3. CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) Southern California v3.0 Phase 1 (100-year storm) sea-level rise 1.0 m: ocean currents projections

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Projected Hazard: Model-derived ocean current velocities (in meters per second) for the given storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario. Model Summary: The...

  4. CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) Southern California v3.0 Phase 1 (100-year storm) sea-level rise 0.5 m: ocean currents projections

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Projected Hazard: Model-derived ocean current velocities (in meters per second) for the given storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario. Model Summary: The...

  5. CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) Southern California v3.0 Phase 1 (100-year storm) sea-level rise 2.0 m: ocean currents projections

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Projected Hazard: Model-derived ocean current velocities (in meters per second) for the given storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario. Model Summary: The...

  6. CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) Southern California v3.0 Phase 1 (100-year storm) sea-level rise 1.5 m: ocean currents projections

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Projected Hazard: Model-derived ocean current velocities (in meters per second) for the given storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario. Model Summary: The...

  7. CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) Southern California v3.0 Phase 1 (100-year storm) sea-level rise 0.0 m: ocean currents projections

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Projected Hazard: Model-derived ocean current velocities (in meters per second) for the given storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario. Model Summary: The...

  8. CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) Southern California v3.0 Phase 1 (100-year storm) sea-level rise 1.0 m: ocean currents projections

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Projected Hazard: Model-derived ocean current velocities (in meters per second) for the given storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario. Model Summary: The...

  9. CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) Southern California v3.0 Phase 1 (100-year storm) sea-level rise 2.0 m: ocean currents projections

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Projected Hazard: Model-derived ocean current velocities (in meters per second) for the given storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario. Model Summary: The...

  10. Contrasting Effects of Historical Sea Level Rise and Contemporary Ocean Currents on Regional Gene Flow of Rhizophora racemosa in Eastern Atlantic Mangroves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngeve, Magdalene N; Van der Stocken, Tom; Menemenlis, Dimitris; Koedam, Nico; Triest, Ludwig

    2016-01-01

    Mangroves are seafaring taxa through their hydrochorous propagules that have the potential to disperse over long distances. Therefore, investigating their patterns of gene flow provides insights on the processes involved in the spatial genetic structuring of populations. The coastline of Cameroon has a particular geomorphological history and coastal hydrology with complex contemporary patterns of ocean currents, which we hypothesize to have effects on the spatial configuration and composition of present-day mangroves within its spans. A total of 982 trees were sampled from 33 transects (11 sites) in 4 estuaries. Using 11 polymorphic SSR markers, we investigated genetic diversity and structure of Rhizophora racemosa, a widespread species in the region. Genetic diversity was low to moderate and genetic differentiation between nearly all population pairs was significant. Bayesian clustering analysis, PCoA, estimates of contemporary migration rates and identification of barriers to gene flow were used and complemented with estimated dispersal trajectories of hourly released virtual propagules, using high-resolution surface current from a mesoscale and tide-resolving ocean simulation. These indicate that the Cameroon Volcanic Line (CVL) is not a present-day barrier to gene flow. Rather, the Inter-Bioko-Cameroon (IBC) corridor, formed due to sea level rise, allows for connectivity between two mangrove areas that were isolated during glacial times by the CVL. Genetic data and numerical ocean simulations indicated that an oceanic convergence zone near the Cameroon Estuary complex (CEC) presents a strong barrier to gene flow, resulting in genetic discontinuities between the mangrove areas on either side. This convergence did not result in higher genetic diversity at the CEC as we had hypothesized. In conclusion, the genetic structure of Rhizophora racemosa is maintained by the contrasting effects of the contemporary oceanic convergence and historical climate change

  11. USACE Extreme Sea levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-03-14

    report summarising the results of the research, together with a set of recommendations arising from the research. This report describes progress to...Southampton University at HR Wallingford and subsequent teleconference with Heidi Moritz and Kate White. The notes summarising the findings of the...suggestion was made that we may want to begin talking about extreme water levels separate from storms. Ivan mentioned an analysis of storminess which

  12. Dynamics of sea level variations in the coastal Red Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Churchill, James; Abulnaja, Yasser; Nellayaputhenpeedika, Mohammedali; Limeburner, Richard; Lentz, Steven

    2016-04-01

    Sea level variations in the central Red Sea coastal zone span a range of roughly 1.2 m. Though relatively small, these water level changes can significantly impact the environment over the shallow reef tops prevalent in the central Red Sea, altering the water depth by a factor or two or more. While considerable scientific work has been directed at tidal and seasonal variations of Red Sea water level, very little attention has been given to elevation changes in an 'intermediate' frequency band, with periods of 2-30 d, even though motions in this band account for roughly half of the sea level variance in central Red Sea. We examined the sea level signal in this band using AVISO sea level anomaly (SLA) data, COARDAS wind data and measurements from pressure sensors maintained for more than five years at a number of locations in Saudi Arabian coastal waters. Empirical orthogonal function analysis of the SLA data indicates that longer-period (10-30 d) sea level variations in the intermediate band are dominated by coherent motions in a single mode that extends over most of the Red Sea axis. Idealized model results indicate that this large-scale mode of sea level motion is principally due to variations in the large-scale gradient of the along-axis wind. Our analysis indicates that coastal sea level motions at shorter periods (2-10 d) are principally generated by a combination of direct forcing by the local wind stress and forcing associated with large-scale wind stress gradients. However, also contributing to coastal sea level variations in the intermediate frequency band are mesoscale eddies, which are prevalent throughout the Red Sea basin, have a sea level signal of 10's of cm and produce relatively small-scale (order 50 km) changes in coastal sea level.

  13. The Sea Level Fingerprints of Global Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitrovica, J. X.; Hay, C.; Kopp, R. E., III; Morrow, E.

    2014-12-01

    It may be difficult to persuade those living in northern Europe that the sea level changes that their coastal communities face depends less on the total melting of polar ice sheets and glaciers than on the individual contributions to this total. In particular, melting of a specific ice sheet or mountain glacier drives deformational, gravitational and rotational perturbations to the Earth system that are manifest in a unique geometry, or fingerprint, of global sea level change. For example, melting from the Greenland Ice Sheet equivalent to 1 mm/yr of global mean sea level (GMSL) rise will lead to sea level rise of ~0 mm/yr in Dublin, ~0.2 mm/yr in Amsterdam, ~0.4 mm/yr in Boston and ~1.2 mm/yr in Cape Town. In contrast, if the same volume of ice melted from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, all of the above sites would experience a sea level rise in the range 1.1-1.2 mm/yr. These fingerprints of modern ice melting, together with ocean thermal expansion and dynamic effects, and the ongoing signal from glacial isostatic adjustment in response to the last ice age, combine to produce a sea level field with significant geographic variability. In this talk I will highlight an analysis of global tide gauge records that takes full advantage of this variability to estimate both GMSL and the sources of meltwater over the last century, and to project GMSL to the end of the current century.

  14. Influences of Holocene sea level, regional tectonics, and fluvial, gravity and slope currents induced sedimentation on the regional geomorphology of the continental slope off northwestern India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Chauhan, O.S.; Almeida, F.

    the Holocene sea level. The Bombay high area has slope breaks between 400 and 600 m, whereas off Saurashtra steep breaks in the slope occur between 560 and 960 m depth. Further southwards, at the slope, elevations and depressions are present. Variations...

  15. Ice sheet systems and sea level change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rignot, E. J.

    2015-12-01

    Modern views of ice sheets provided by satellites, airborne surveys, in situ data and paleoclimate records while transformative of glaciology have not fundamentally changed concerns about ice sheet stability and collapse that emerged in the 1970's. Motivated by the desire to learn more about ice sheets using new technologies, we stumbled on an unexplored field of science and witnessed surprising changes before realizing that most were coming too fast, soon and large. Ice sheets are integrant part of the Earth system; they interact vigorously with the atmosphere and the oceans, yet most of this interaction is not part of current global climate models. Since we have never witnessed the collapse of a marine ice sheet, observations and exploration remain critical sentinels. At present, these observations suggest that Antarctica and Greenland have been launched into a path of multi-meter sea level rise caused by rapid climate warming. While the current loss of ice sheet mass to the ocean remains a trickle, every mm of sea level change will take centuries of climate reversal to get back, several major marine-terminating sectors have been pushed out of equilibrium, and ice shelves are irremediably being lost. As glaciers retreat from their salty, warm, oceanic margins, they will melt away and retreat slower, but concerns remain about sea level change from vastly marine-based sectors: 2-m sea level equivalent in Greenland and 23-m in Antarctica. Significant changes affect 2/4 marine-based sectors in Greenland - Jakobshavn Isb. and the northeast stream - with Petermann Gl. not far behind. Major changes have affected the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica since the 1980s. Smaller yet significant changes affect the marine-based Wilkes Land sector of East Antarctica, a reminder that not all marine-based ice is in West Antarctica. Major advances in reducing uncertainties in sea level projections will require massive, interdisciplinary efforts that are not currently in place

  16. Seasonal Change of Steric Sea Level in the GIN Seas

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Lei; WANG Huijuan; SUN Ruili

    2011-01-01

    The Greenland Sea, Iceland Sea, and Norwegian Sea (GIN seas) form the main channel connecting the Arctic Ocean with other Oceans, where significant water and energy exchange take place, and play an important role in global climate change. In this study steric sea level, associated with temperature and salinity, in the GIN seas is examined based on analysis of the monthly temperature and salinity fields from Polar science center Hydrographic Climatology (PHC3.0). A method proposed by Tabata et al. is used to calculate steric sea level, in which, steric sea level change due to thermal expansion and haline contraction is termed as the thermosteric component (TC) and the halosteric component (SC), recpectively. Total steric sea level (TSSL) change is the sum of TC and SC. The study shows that SC is making more contributions than TC to the seasonal change of TSSL in the Greenland Sea, whereas TC contributes more in the Norwegian and the Iceland Seas. Annual variation of TSSL is larger than 50ram over most regions of the GIN Seas, and can be larger than 200mm at some locations such as 308mm at 76.5°N, 12.5°E and 246mm at 77.50N, 17.5°W.

  17. The future for the Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS) Sea Level Data Rescue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradshaw, Elizabeth; Matthews, Andrew; Rickards, Lesley; Aarup, Thorkild

    2016-04-01

    Historical sea level data are rare and unrepeatable measurements with a number of applications in climate studies (sea level rise), oceanography (ocean currents, tides, surges), geodesy (national datum), geophysics and geology (coastal land movements) and other disciplines. However, long-term time series are concentrated in the northern hemisphere and there are no records at the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) global data bank longer than 100 years in the Arctic, Africa, South America or Antarctica. Data archaeology activities will help fill in the gaps in the global dataset and improve global sea level reconstruction. The Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS) is an international programme conducted under the auspices of the WMO-IOC Joint Technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology. It was set up in 1985 to collect long-term tide gauge observations and to develop systems and standards "for ocean monitoring and flood warning purposes". At the GLOSS-GE-XIV Meeting in 2015, GLOSS agreed on a number of action items to be developed in the next two years. These were: 1. To explore mareogram digitisation applications, including NUNIEAU (more information available at: http://www.mediterranee.cerema.fr/logiciel-de-numerisation-des-enregistrements-r57.html) and other recent developments in scanning/digitisation software, such as IEDRO's Weather Wizards program, to see if they could be used via a browser. 2. To publicise sea level data archaeology and rescue by: • maintaining and regularly updating the Sea Level Data Archaeology page on the GLOSS website • strengthening links to the GLOSS data centres and data rescue organisations e.g. linking to IEDRO, ACRE, RDA • restarting the sea level data rescue blog with monthly posts. 3. Investigate sources of funding for data archaeology and rescue projects. 4. Propose "Guidelines" for rescuing sea level data. These action items will aid the discovery, scanning, digitising and quality control

  18. Global Warming and Caspian Sea Level Fluctuations

    CERN Document Server

    Ardakanian, Reza

    2013-01-01

    Coastal regions have a high social, economical and environmental importance. Due to this importance the sea level fluctuations can have many bad consequences. In this research the correlation between the increasing trend of temperature in coastal stations due to Global Warming and the Caspian Sea level has been established. The Caspian Sea level data has been received from the Jason-1 satellite. It was resulted that the monthly correlation between the temperature and sea level is high and also positive and almost the same for all the stations. But the yearly correlation was negative. It means that the sea level has decreased by the increase in temperature.

  19. DUACS: Toward High Resolution Sea Level Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faugere, Y.; Gerald, D.; Ubelmann, C.; Claire, D.; Pujol, M. I.; Antoine, D.; Desjonqueres, J. D.; Picot, N.

    2016-12-01

    The DUACS system produces, as part of the CNES/SALP project, and the Copernicus Marine Environment and Monitoring Service, high quality multimission altimetry Sea Level products for oceanographic applications, climate forecasting centers, geophysic and biology communities... These products consist in directly usable and easy to manipulate Level 3 (along-track cross-calibrated SLA) and Level 4 products (multiple sensors merged as maps or time series) and are available in global and regional version (Mediterranean Sea, Arctic, European Shelves …).The quality of the products is today limited by the altimeter technology "Low Resolution Mode" (LRM), and the lack of available observations. The launch of 2 new satellites in 2016, Jason-3 and Sentinel-3A, opens new perspectives. Using the global Synthetic Aperture Radar mode (SARM) coverage of S3A and optimizing the LRM altimeter processing (retracking, editing, ...) will allow us to fully exploit the fine-scale content of the altimetric missions. Thanks to this increase of real time altimetry observations we will also be able to improve Level-4 products by combining these new Level-3 products and new mapping methodology, such as dynamic interpolation. Finally these improvements will benefit to downstream products : geostrophic currents, Lagrangian products, eddy atlas… Overcoming all these challenges will provide major upgrades of Sea Level products to better fulfill user needs.

  20. A NOAA/NOS Sea Level Advisory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sweet, W.

    2011-12-01

    In order for coastal communities to realize current impacts and become resilient to future changes, sea level advisories/bulletins are necessary that systematically monitor and document non-tidal anomalies (residuals) and flood-watch (elevation) conditions. The need became apparent after an exceptional sea level anomaly along the U.S. East Coast in June - July of 2009 when higher than normal sea levels coincided with a perigean-spring tide and flooded many coastal regions. The event spurred numerous public inquiries to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS) from coastal communities concerned because of the lack of any coastal storm signatures normally associated with such an anomaly. A subsequent NOAA report provided insight into some of the mechanisms involved in the event and methods for tracking their reoccurrences. NOAA/CO-OPS is the U.S. authority responsible for defining sea level datums and tracking their relative changes in support of marine navigation and national and state land-use boundaries. These efforts are supported by the National Water Level Observation Network (NWLON), whose long-term and widespread observations largely define a total water level measurement impacting a coastal community. NWLON time series provide estimates of local relative sea level trends, a product increasingly utilized by various stakeholders planning for the future. NWLON data also capture significant short-term changes and conveyance of high-water variations (from surge to seasonal scale) provides invaluable insight into inundation patterns ultimately needed for a more comprehensive planning guide. A NOAA/CO-OPS Sea Level Advisory Project will enhance high-water monitoring capabilities by: - Automatically detecting sea level anomalies and flood-watch occurrences - Seasonally calibrating the anomaly thresholds to a locality in terms of flood potential - Alerting for near

  1. Some observational results of sea storm current

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    @@ INTRODUCTION Dr. Hollister, a marine geologist of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, first pointed out that there was ocean storm current in the ocean. He found out the wavy texture in the seabed core samples, and suggested that this wavy texture was caused by the high speed sea current in remote antiquity. He then suggested a bold hypothesis that there existed a benthic storm current near the ocean bottom, and presented this hypothesis at the IUGG conference held at San Francisco in 1963. Unfortunately, the attention was not drawn to the hypothesis at the conference, and the hypothesis was criticized as a sheer nonsense.

  2. On sea level - ice sheet interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomez, Natalya Alissa

    This thesis focuses on the physics of static sea-level changes following variations in the distribution of grounded ice and the influence of these changes on the stability and dynamics of marine ice sheets. Gravitational, deformational and rotational effects associated with changes in grounded ice mass lead to markedly non-uniform spatial patterns of sea-level change. I outline a revised theory for computing post-glacial sea-level predictions and discuss the dominant physical effects that contribute to the patterns of sea-level change associated with surface loading on different timescales. I show, in particular, that a large sea-level fall (rise) occurs in the vicinity of a retreating (advancing) ice sheet on both short and long timescales. I also present an application of the sea-level theory in which I predict the sea-level changes associated with a new model of North American ice sheet evolution and consider the implications of the results for efforts to establish the sources of Meltwater Pulse 1A. These results demonstrate that viscous deformational effects can influence the amplitude of sea-level changes observed at far-field sea-level sites, even when the time window being considered is relatively short (≤ 500 years). Subsequently, I investigate the feedback of sea-level changes on marine ice-sheet stability and dynamics by coupling a global sea-level model to ice-sheet models of increasing complexity. To begin, I incorporate gravitationally self-consistent sea-level changes into an equilibrium marine ice-sheet stability theory to show that the sea-level changes have a stabilizing influence on ice-sheet retreat. Next, I consider the impact of the stabilizing mechanism on the timescale of ice-sheet retreat using a 1D dynamic coupled ice sheet - sea level model. Simulations with the coupled model, which incorporate viscoelastic deformation of the solid Earth, show that local sea-level changes at the grounding line act to slow, and in some cases, halt

  3. Sea level rise: A literature survey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oude Essink, G.H.P.

    1992-01-01

    In order to assess the impact of sea level rise on Water Management, it is useful to understand the mechanisrns that determine the level of the sea. In this study, a literature survey is executed to analyze these mechanisms. Climate plays a centra! role in these mechanisms, Climate mainly changes du

  4. Greenhouse warming and changes in sea level

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oerlemans, J.

    1989-01-01

    It is likely that the anticipated warming due to the effect of increasing concentration of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases will lead to a further and faster rise in world mean sea level. There are many processes in the climate system controlling sea level, but the most important factors in

  5. Greenhouse warming and changes in sea level

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oerlemans, J.

    1989-01-01

    It is likely that the anticipated warming due to the effect of increasing concentration of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases will lead to a further and faster rise in world mean sea level. There are many processes in the climate system controlling sea level, but the most important

  6. Causes for contemporary regional sea level changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stammer, Detlef; Cazenave, Anny; Ponte, Rui M; Tamisiea, Mark E

    2013-01-01

    Regional sea level changes can deviate substantially from those of the global mean, can vary on a broad range of timescales, and in some regions can even lead to a reversal of long-term global mean sea level trends. The underlying causes are associated with dynamic variations in the ocean circulation as part of climate modes of variability and with an isostatic adjustment of Earth's crust to past and ongoing changes in polar ice masses and continental water storage. Relative to the coastline, sea level is also affected by processes such as earthquakes and anthropogenically induced subsidence. Present-day regional sea level changes appear to be caused primarily by natural climate variability. However, the imprint of anthropogenic effects on regional sea level-whether due to changes in the atmospheric forcing or to mass variations in the system-will grow with time as climate change progresses, and toward the end of the twenty-first century, regional sea level patterns will be a superposition of climate variability modes and natural and anthropogenically induced static sea level patterns. Attribution and predictions of ongoing and future sea level changes require an expanded and sustained climate observing system.

  7. Glacial Isostatic Adjustment and Contemporary Sea Level Rise: An Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spada, Giorgio

    2017-01-01

    Glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) encompasses a suite of geophysical phenomena accompanying the waxing and waning of continental-scale ice sheets. These involve the solid Earth, the oceans and the cryosphere both on short (decade to century) and on long (millennia) timescales. In the framework of contemporary sea-level change, the role of GIA is particular. In fact, among the processes significantly contributing to contemporary sea-level change, GIA is the only one for which deformational, gravitational and rotational effects are simultaneously operating, and for which the rheology of the solid Earth is essential. Here, I review the basic elements of the GIA theory, emphasizing the connections with current sea-level changes observed by tide gauges and altimetry. This purpose is met discussing the nature of the "sea-level equation" (SLE), which represents the basis for modeling the sea-level variations of glacial isostatic origin, also giving access to a full set of geodetic variations associated with GIA. Here, the SLE is employed to characterize the remarkable geographical variability of the GIA-induced sea-level variations, which are often expressed in terms of "fingerprints". Using harmonic analysis, the spatial variability of the GIA fingerprints is compared to that of other components of contemporary sea-level change. In closing, some attention is devoted to the importance of the "GIA corrections" in the context of modern sea-level observations, based on tide gauges or satellite altimeters.

  8. Glacial Isostatic Adjustment and Contemporary Sea Level Rise: An Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spada, Giorgio

    2016-08-01

    Glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) encompasses a suite of geophysical phenomena accompanying the waxing and waning of continental-scale ice sheets. These involve the solid Earth, the oceans and the cryosphere both on short (decade to century) and on long (millennia) timescales. In the framework of contemporary sea-level change, the role of GIA is particular. In fact, among the processes significantly contributing to contemporary sea-level change, GIA is the only one for which deformational, gravitational and rotational effects are simultaneously operating, and for which the rheology of the solid Earth is essential. Here, I review the basic elements of the GIA theory, emphasizing the connections with current sea-level changes observed by tide gauges and altimetry. This purpose is met discussing the nature of the "sea-level equation" (SLE), which represents the basis for modeling the sea-level variations of glacial isostatic origin, also giving access to a full set of geodetic variations associated with GIA. Here, the SLE is employed to characterize the remarkable geographical variability of the GIA-induced sea-level variations, which are often expressed in terms of "fingerprints". Using harmonic analysis, the spatial variability of the GIA fingerprints is compared to that of other components of contemporary sea-level change. In closing, some attention is devoted to the importance of the "GIA corrections" in the context of modern sea-level observations, based on tide gauges or satellite altimeters.

  9. The Caribbean conundrum of Holocene sea level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Luke; Mound, Jon

    2014-05-01

    In the tropics, pre-historic sea-level curve reconstruction is often problematic because it relies upon sea-level indicators whose vertical relationship to the sea surface is poorly constrained. In the Caribbean, fossil corals, mangrove peats and shell material dominate the pre-historic indicator record. The common approach to reconstruction involves the use of modern analogues to these indicators to establish a fixed vertical habitable range. The aim of these reconstructions is to find spatial variability in the Holocene sea level in an area gradually subsiding (Holocene sea-level indicators and the other of published, modern growth rates, abundance and coverage of mangrove and coral species for different depths. We use the first catalogue to calibrate 14C ages to give a probabilistic age range for each indicator. We use the second catalogue to define a depth probability distribution function (pdf) for mangroves and each coral species. The Holocene indicators are grouped into 12 sub-regions around the Caribbean. For each sub-region we apply our sea-level reconstruction, which involves stepping a fixed-length time window through time and calculating the position (and rate) of sea-level (change) using a thousand realisations of the time/depth pdfs to define an envelope of probable solutions. We find that the sub-regional relative sea-level curves display spatio-temporal variability including a south-east to north-west 1500 year lag in the arrival of Holocene sea level to that of the present day. We demonstrate that these variations are primarily due to glacial-isostatic-adjustment induced sea-level change and that sub-regional variations (where sufficient data exists) are due to local uplift variability.

  10. GHRSST Level 2P sub-skin Sea Surface Temperature from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on Metop satellites (currently Metop-A) (GDS V2) produced by OSI SAF (GDS version 2)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A global 1 km Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 2P dataset based on multi-channel sea surface temperature (SST) retrievals generated...

  11. GHRSST Level 2P sub-skin Sea Surface Temperature from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on Metop satellites (currently Metop-B) (GDS V2) produced by OSI SAF (GDS version 2)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A global 1 km Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 2P dataset based on multi-channel sea surface temperature (SST) retrievals generated...

  12. Benchmarking and testing the “Sea Level Equation”

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Spada, G.; Barletta, Valentina Roberta; Klemann, V.

    . This study has taken place within a collaboration facilitated through the Eu-ropean Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) Action ES0701. The tests involve predictions of past and current sea level variations, and 3D deformations of the Earth surface. In spite of the significant differences...... from the interpretation of modern satellite geodetic measurements to the projections of future sea level trends in response to climate change. All the processes accompanying GIA can be described solving the so-called Sea Level Equation (SLE), an integral equation that accounts for the interactions be...

  13. Characteristics and possible causes of sea level anomalies in the Xisha sea area

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Hui; HAN Shuzong; FAN Wenjing; WANG Guosong; LIU Kexiu; ZHANG Zengjian

    2016-01-01

    Based on the analysis of wind, ocean currents, sea surface temperature (SST) and remote sensing satellite altimeter data, the characteristics and possible causes of sea level anomalies in the Xisha sea area are investigated. The main results are shown as follows: (1) Since 1993, the sea level in the Xisha sea area was obviously higher than normal in 1998, 2001, 2008, 2010 and 2013. Especially, the sea level in 1998 and 2010 was abnormally high, and the sea level in 2010 was 13.2 cm higher than the muti-year mean, which was the highest in the history. In 2010, the sea level in the Xisha sea area had risen 43 cm from June to August, with the strength twice the annual variation range. (2) The sea level in the Xisha sea area was not only affected by the tidal force of the celestial bodies, but also closely related to the quasi 2 a periodic oscillation of tropical western Pacific monsoon and ENSO events. (3) There was a significant negative correlation between sea level in the Xisha sea area and ENSO events. The high sea level anomaly all happened during the developing phase of La Niña. They also show significant negative correlations with Niño 4 and Niño 3.4 indices, and the lag correlation coefficients for 2 months and 3 months are–0.46 and –0.45, respectively. (4) During the early La Niña event form June to November in 2010, the anomalous wind field was cyclonic. A strong clockwise vortex was formed for the current in 25 m layer in the Xisha sea area, and the velocity of the current is close to the speed of the Kuroshio near the Luzon Strait. In normal years, there is a “cool eddy”. While in 2010, from July to August, the SST in the area was 2–3°C higher than that of the same period in the history.

  14. Dynamic sea level changes following changes in the thermohaline circulation

    CERN Document Server

    Levermann, A; Hofmann, M; Montoya, M; Rahmstorf, S; Levermann, Anders; Griesel, Alexa; Hofmann, Matthias; Montoya, Marisa; Rahmstorf, Stefan

    2004-01-01

    Using the coupled climate model CLIMBER-3a, we investigate changes in sea surface elevation due to a weakening of the thermohaline circulation (THC). In addition to a global sea level rise due to a warming of the deep sea, this leads to a regional dynamic sea level change which follows quasi-instantaneously any change in the ocean circulation. We show that the magnitude of this dynamic effect can locally reach up to ~1m, depending on the initial THC strength. In some regions the rate of change can be up to 20-25 mm/yr. The emerging patterns are discussed with respect to the oceanic circulation changes. Most prominent is a south-north gradient reflecting the changes in geostrophic surface currents. Our results suggest that an analysis of observed sea level change patterns could be useful for monitoring the THC strength.

  15. Global Sea Level Change and Thermal Contribution

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZUO Juncheng; ZHANG Jianli; DU Ling; LI Peiliang; LI Lei

    2009-01-01

    The global long-term sea level trend is obtained from the analysis of tide gauge data and TOPEX/Poseidon data. The linear trend of global mean sea level is highly non-umiform spatially, with an average rate of 2.2 mm year-1 in T/P sea-level rise from October 1992 to September 2002. Sea level change duc to temperature vanation (the thermosteric sea level) is discussed. The results are compared with TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter data in the same temporal span at different spatial scales. It is indicated that the ther-mal effect accounts for 86% and 73% of the observed seasonal variability in the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively. The TOPEX/Poseidon observed sea level lags behind the TSI, by 2 months in the zonal band of 40°-60° in both the northern and southern hemispheres. Systematic differences of about 1-2cm between TOPEX/Poseidon observations and thermosteric sea level data are obtained. The potential causes for these differences include water exchange among the atmosphere, land, and oceans, and some pos-sible deviations in thermosteric contribution estimates and geophysical corrections to the TOPEX/Poseidon data.

  16. Hölder Scales of Sea Level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Li

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The statistics of sea level is essential in the field of geosciences, ranging from ocean dynamics to climates. The fractal properties of sea level, such as long-range dependence (LRD or long memory, 1/f noise behavior, and self-similarity (SS, are known. However, the description of its multiscale behavior as well as local roughness with the Hölder exponent h(t from a view of multifractional Brownian motion (mBm is rarely reported, to the best of our knowledge. In this research, we will exhibit that there is the multiscale property of sea level based on h(ts of sea level data recorded by the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC at six stations in the Florida and Eastern Gulf of Mexico. The contributions of this paper are twofold as follows. (i Hölder exponent of sea level may not change with time considerably at small time scale, for example, daily time scale, but it varies significantly at large time scale, such as at monthly time scale. (ii The dispersion of the Hölder exponents of sea level may be different at different stations. This implies that the Hölder roughness of sea level may be spatial dependent.

  17. Seasonal variability in the Baltic Sea level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marek Świrgoń

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Sea level is subject to spatial and temporal variability on different scales. In this paper we investigate seasonal variability in the open Baltic Sea level using daily satellite altimetry data for the period 1 January 1993-31 December 2010. Our results indicate that there is a well-pronounced seasonal cycle in the 18-year average sea level and in its standard deviation. The average annual SLA amplitude in the open Baltic Sea is about 18 cm. The seasonal cycle of the SLA in the Baltic Sea is asymmetric in shape. In the autumn and winter (about 240-260 days per year, the 18-year average daily SLA are higher than the 18-year annual average SLA. In the spring and summer (about 100-120 days per year, the 18-year average daily SLA are lower than the 18-year annual average SLA. A similar asymmetry of the seasonal cycle is not observed in the North Sea and North Atlantic SLA data. The annual pattern of the sea level variability in the Baltic Sea is evident if one considers multi-year average time series, but the cycle can be obscured in some years.

  18. Seasonal variability of the Caspian Sea three-dimensional circulation, sea level and air-sea interaction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. A. Ibrayev

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available A three-dimensional primitive equation model including sea ice thermodynamics and air-sea interaction is used to study seasonal circulation and water mass variability in the Caspian Sea under the influence of realistic mass, momentum and heat fluxes. River discharges, precipitation, radiation and wind stress are seasonally specified in the model, based on available data sets. The evaporation rate, sensible and latent heat fluxes at the sea surface are computed interactively through an atmospheric boundary layer sub-model, using the ECMWF-ERA15 re-analysis atmospheric data and model generated sea surface temperature. The model successfully simulates sea-level changes and baroclinic circulation/mixing features with forcing specified for a selected year. The results suggest that the seasonal cycle of wind stress is crucial in producing basin circulation. Seasonal cycle of sea surface currents presents three types: cyclonic gyres in December–January; Eckman south-, south-westward drift in February–July embedded by western and eastern southward coastal currents and transition type in August–November. Western and eastern northward sub-surface coastal currents being a result of coastal local dynamics at the same time play an important role in meridional redistribution of water masses. An important part of the work is the simulation of sea surface topography, yielding verifiable results in terms of sea level. The model successfully reproduces sea level variability for four coastal points, where the observed data are available. Analyses of heat and water budgets confirm climatologic estimates of heat and moisture fluxes at the sea surface. Experiments performed with variations in external forcing suggest a sensitive response of the circulation and the water budget to atmospheric and river forcing.

  19. Seasonal variability of the Caspian Sea three-dimensional circulation, sea level and air-sea interaction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. A. Ibrayev

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available A three-dimensional primitive equation model including sea ice thermodynamics and air-sea interaction is used to study seasonal circulation and water mass variability in the Caspian Sea under the influence of realistic mass, momentum and heat fluxes. River discharges, precipitation, radiation and wind stress are seasonally specified in the model, based on available data sets. The evaporation rate, sensible and latent heat fluxes at the sea surface are computed interactively through an atmospheric boundary layer sub-model, using the ECMWF-ERA15 re-analysis atmospheric data and model generated sea surface temperature. The model successfully simulates sea-level changes and baroclinic circulation/mixing features with forcing specified for a selected year. The results suggest that the seasonal cycle of wind stress is crucial in producing basin circulation. Seasonal cycle of sea surface currents presents three types: cyclonic gyres in December–January; Eckman south-, south-westward drift in February–July embedded by western and eastern southward coastal currents and transition type in August–November. Western and eastern northward sub-surface coastal currents being a result of coastal local dynamics at the same time play an important role in meridional redistribution of water masses. An important part of the work is the simulation of sea surface topography, yielding verifiable results in terms of sea level. Model successfully reproduces sea level variability for four coastal points, where the observed data are available. Analyses of heat and water budgets confirm climatologic estimates of heat and moisture fluxes at the sea surface. Experiments performed with variations in external forcing suggest a sensitive response of the circulation and the water budget to atmospheric and river forcing.

  20. Western Ross Sea continental slope gravity currents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, Arnold L.; Orsi, Alejandro H.; Muench, Robin; Huber, Bruce A.; Zambianchi, Enrico; Visbeck, Martin

    2009-06-01

    Antarctic Bottom Water of the world ocean is derived from dense Shelf Water that is carried downslope by gravity currents at specific sites along the Antarctic margins. Data gathered by the AnSlope and CLIMA programs reveal the presence of energetic gravity currents that are formed over the western continental slope of the Ross Sea when High Salinity Shelf Water exits the shelf through Drygalski Trough. Joides Trough, immediately to the east, offers an additional escape route for less saline Shelf Water, while the Glomar Challenger Trough still farther east is a major pathway for export of the once supercooled low-salinity Ice Shelf Water that forms under the Ross Ice Shelf. The Drygalski Trough gravity currents increase in thickness from ˜100 to ˜400 m on proceeding downslope from ˜600 m (the shelf break) to 1200 m (upper slope) sea floor depth, while turning sharply to the west in response to the Coriolis force during their descent. The mean current pathway trends ˜35° downslope from isobaths. Benthic-layer current and thickness are correlated with the bottom water salinity, which exerts the primary control over the benthic-layer density. A 1-year time series of bottom-water current and hydrographic properties obtained on the slope near the 1000 m isobath indicates episodic pulses of Shelf Water export through Drygalski Trough. These cold (34.75) pulses correlate with strong downslope bottom flow. Extreme examples occurred during austral summer/fall 2003, comprising concentrated High Salinity Shelf Water (-1.9 °C; 34.79) and approaching 1.5 m s -1 at descent angles as large as ˜60° relative to the isobaths. Such events were most common during November-May, consistent with a northward shift in position of the dense Shelf Water during austral summer. The coldest, saltiest bottom water was measured from mid-April to mid-May 2003. The summer/fall export of High Salinity Shelf Water observed in 2004 was less than that seen in 2003. This difference, if real

  1. Legacy HMSRP NWHI Sea Level Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Island elevation data use in publication by Baker JD, Littnan CL, Johnston DW. "2006. Potential effects of sea level rise on the terrestrial habitats of endangered...

  2. Climate Prediction Center Darwin Sea Level Pressure

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This is one of the CPC?s Monthly Atmospheric and SST Indices. It contains Darwin sea level pressures and anomalies during 1951-present. The anomalies are departures...

  3. Sea level rise and its coastal impacts

    OpenAIRE

    Cazenave, Anny; Le Cozannet, Gonéri

    2014-01-01

    Link to the paper: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013EF000188/abstract; International audience; Global warming in response to accumulation of human-induced greenhouse gases inside the atmosphere has already caused several visible consequences, among them increase of the Earth's mean temperature and ocean heat content, melting of glaciers, and loss of ice from the Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets. Ocean warming and land ice melt in turn are causing sea level to rise. Sea level ...

  4. Observations: Oceanic climate change and sea level

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Bindoff, N.L.; Willebrand, J.; Artale, V.; Cazenave, A.; Gregory, J.; Gulev, S.; Hanawa, K.; LeQuere, C.; Levitus, S.; Nojiri, Y.; Shum, C.K.; Talley, L.D.; Unnikrishnan, A.S.

    Rising? ............................................ 409 References ........................................................................ 422 Appendix 5.A: Techniques, Error Estimation and Measurement Systems ................. 429 387... driven by reduced rates of water renewal, in the thermocline (~100–1,000 m) in most ocean basins from the early 1970s to the late 1990s. • Global mean sea level has been rising. From 1961 to 2003, the average rate of sea level rise was 1.8 ± 0.5 mm...

  5. Glacier fluctuations, global temperature and sea-level change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leclercq, P.W.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/339579951

    2012-01-01

    The current world-wide glacier retreat is a clear sign of global warming. In addition, glaciers contribute to sea-level rise as a consequence of the current retreat. In this thesis we use records of past glacier fluctuations to reconstruct past climate variations and the glacier contribution to

  6. Long-term Caspian Sea level change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, J. L.; Pekker, T.; Wilson, C. R.; Tapley, B. D.; Kostianoy, A. G.; Cretaux, J.-F.; Safarov, E. S.

    2017-07-01

    Caspian Sea level (CSL) has undergone substantial fluctuations during the past several hundred years. The causes over the entire historical period are uncertain, but we investigate here large changes seen in the past several decades. We use climate model-predicted precipitation (P), evaporation (E), and observed river runoff (R) to reconstruct long-term CSL changes for 1979-2015 and show that PER (P-E + R) flux predictions agree very well with observed CSL changes. The observed rapid CSL increase (about 12.74 cm/yr) and significant drop ( -6.72 cm/yr) during the periods 1979-1995 and 1996-2015 are well accounted for by integrated PER flux predictions of +12.38 and -6.79 cm/yr, respectively. We show that increased evaporation rates over the Caspian Sea play a dominant role in reversing the increasing trend in CSL during the past 37 years. The current long-term decline in CSL is expected to continue into the foreseeable future, under global warming scenarios.

  7. Properties of Red Sea coastal currents

    KAUST Repository

    Churchill, J.H.

    2014-02-14

    Properties of coastal flows of the central Red Sea are examined using 2 years of velocity data acquired off the coast of Saudi Arabia near 22 °N. The tidal flow is found to be very weak. The strongest tidal constituent, the M2 tide, has a magnitude of order 4 cm s−1. Energetic near-inertial and diurnal period motions are observed. These are surface-intensified currents, reaching magnitudes of >10 cm s−1. Although the diurnal currents appear to be principally wind-driven, their relationship with the surface wind stress record is complex. Less than 50% of the diurnal current variance is related to the diurnal wind stress through linear correlation. Correlation analysis reveals a classical upwelling/downwelling response to the alongshore wind stress. However, less than 30% of the overall sub-inertial variance can be accounted for by this response. The action of basin-scale eddies, impinging on the coastal zone, is implicated as a primary mechanism for driving coastal flows.

  8. Sea level ~400 000 years ago (MIS 11: analogue for present and future sea-level?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Q. Bowen

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Comparison of the sea-level today with that of 400 000 years ago (MIS 11, when the Earth's orbital characteristics were similar may provide, under conditions of natural variability, indications of future sea-level during the present interglacial. Then, as now, orbital eccentricity was low and precession dampened. Evidence for MIS 11 sea-level occurs on uplifting coastlines where shorelines with geochronological ages have been preserved. The sea-level term and the uplift term may be separated with an "uplift correction" formula. This discovers the original sea-level at which the now uplifted shoreline was fashioned. Estimates are based on average uplift rates of the "last interglacial" sea-level (MIS 5.5 using a range of estimates for sea-level and age at that time at different locations. These, with varying secular tectonic regimes in different ocean basins, provide a band of estimates for the MIS 11 sea-level. They do not support the hypothesis of an MIS 11 sea-level at ~20 m, and instead show that it was closer to its present level.

  9. Tritium level along Romanian Black Sea Coast

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Varlam, C.; Stefanescu, I.; Popescu, I.; Faurescu, I. [National Inst. for Cryogenic and Isotopic Technologies, PO Box 10, Rm. Valcea, 24050 (Romania)

    2008-07-15

    Establishing the tritium level along the Romanian Black Sea Coast, after 10 years of exploitation of the nuclear power plant from Cernavoda, is a first step in evaluating its impact on the Black Sea ecosystem. The monitoring program consists of tritium activity concentration measurement in sea water and precipitation from Black Sea Coast between April 2005 and April 2006. The sampling points were spread over the Danube-Black Sea Canal - before the locks Agigea and Navodari, and Black Sea along the coast to the Bulgarian border. The average tritium concentration in sea water collected from the sampling locations had the value of 11.1 {+-} 2.1 TU, close to tritium concentration in precipitation. Although an operating nuclear power plant exists in the monitored area, the values of tritium concentration in two locations are slightly higher than those recorded elsewhere. To conclude, it could be emphasized that until now, Cernavoda NPP did not had any influence on the tritium concentration of the Black Sea Shore. (authors)

  10. Development of the Bulgarian Sea Level Service

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palazov, Atanas

    2013-04-01

    Systematic sea level measurements have been started in Bulgaria in the beginning of 20th century and nowadays there are 16 coastal sea level stations in operation. Operators of sea level stations are: National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences (NIMH) - 6 stations, Cadastre Agency, Ministry of Regional Development and Public Works (CA) - 4 stations, Port Infrastructure (PI) - 5 stations and Institute of Oceanology, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences (IO-BAS) - 1 station. Six of them are able to provide real time data. The sea level observations in the network of NIMH, performed at six main Bulgarian ports using standard poles, started in 1910. The program, implemented on the NIMH stations, includes daily measurements of the sea level with water gauges (poles). The position of a zero mark of the water gauge is checked once per year. The sea level network of the CA consists of 4 stations: Varna and Burgas (operational since 1928), Irakly and Ahtopol (since 1971). These stations are equipped with stilling-well tide gauges and with mechanical writing devices which draws sea level changes on paper. A mechanical paper writing instruments were installed in Varna and Burgas during 1928 and in 1971, a new paper writing instruments of type SUM (Russian) were installed in the stations of Irakly and Ahtopol. A set of five sea level stations in the ports of Balchik, Varna west, Pomorie, Burgas and Oil port Burgas was build during 2009 in the frame of Port Operational Marine Observing System (POMOS), equipped with high accuracy microwave instruments and operated by PI. In 2010 a new sea level station was set up in the IO-BAS coastal research base Shkorpolovtci. The station is equipped with high accuracy microwave instrument. These six stations are providing real time data. According to the decision of the Council of Ministers in 2012 sea level stations in Varna, Irakly, Burgas and Ahtopol will be operated jointly by Bulgarian Academy of Sciences and

  11. The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levermann, Anders; Clark, Peter U; Marzeion, Ben; Milne, Glenn A; Pollard, David; Radic, Valentina; Robinson, Alexander

    2013-08-20

    Global mean sea level has been steadily rising over the last century, is projected to increase by the end of this century, and will continue to rise beyond the year 2100 unless the current global mean temperature trend is reversed. Inertia in the climate and global carbon system, however, causes the global mean temperature to decline slowly even after greenhouse gas emissions have ceased, raising the question of how much sea-level commitment is expected for different levels of global mean temperature increase above preindustrial levels. Although sea-level rise over the last century has been dominated by ocean warming and loss of glaciers, the sensitivity suggested from records of past sea levels indicates important contributions should also be expected from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Uncertainties in the paleo-reconstructions, however, necessitate additional strategies to better constrain the sea-level commitment. Here we combine paleo-evidence with simulations from physical models to estimate the future sea-level commitment on a multimillennial time scale and compute associated regional sea-level patterns. Oceanic thermal expansion and the Antarctic Ice Sheet contribute quasi-linearly, with 0.4 m °C(-1) and 1.2 m °C(-1) of warming, respectively. The saturation of the contribution from glaciers is overcompensated by the nonlinear response of the Greenland Ice Sheet. As a consequence we are committed to a sea-level rise of approximately 2.3 m °C(-1) within the next 2,000 y. Considering the lifetime of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, this imposes the need for fundamental adaptation strategies on multicentennial time scales.

  12. Vulnerability of marginal seas to sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomis, Damia; Jordà, Gabriel

    2017-04-01

    Sea level rise (SLR) is a serious thread for coastal areas and has a potential negative impact on society and economy. SLR can lead for instance to land loss, beach reduction, increase of the damage of marine storms on coastal infrastructures and to the salinization of underground water streams. It is well acknowledged that future SLR will be inhomogeneous across the globe, with regional differences of up to 100% with respect to global mean sea level (GMSL). Several studies have addressed the projections of SLR at regional scale, but most of them are based on global climate models (GCMs) that have a relatively coarse spatial resolution (>1°). In marginal seas this has proven to be a strong limitation, as their particular configurations require spatial resolutions that are not reachable by present GCMs. A paradigmatic case is the Mediterranean Sea, connected to the global ocean through the Strait of Gibraltar, a narrow passage of 14 km width. The functioning of the Mediterranean Sea involves a variety of processes including an overturning circulation, small-scale convection and a rich mesoscale field. Moreover, the long-term evolution of Mediterranean sea level has been significantly different from the global mean during the last decades. The observations of present climate and the projections for the next decades have lead some authors to hypothesize that the particular characteristics of the basin could allow Mediterranean mean sea level to evolve differently from the global mean. Assessing this point is essential to undertake proper adaptation strategies for the largely populated Mediterranean coastal areas. In this work we apply a new approach that combines regional and global projections to analyse future SLR. In a first step we focus on the quantification of the expected departures of future Mediterranean sea level from GMSL evolution and on the contribution of different processes to these departures. As a result we find that, in spite of its particularities

  13. Solution notches, earthquakes, and sea level, Haiti

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiffman, C. R.; Mildor, B. S.; Bilham, R. G.

    2010-12-01

    Shortly after the 12 January 2010 Haiti earthquake, we installed an array of five tide gauges to determine sea level and its variability in the region of uplifted corals on the coast SW of Leogane, Haiti, that had been uplift ≤30 cm during the earthquake. Each gauge consists of a pressure transducer bolted 50-80 cm below mean sea level, which samples the difference between atmospheric pressure and sea pressure every 10 minutes. The data are transmitted via the Iridium satellite and are publically available with a latency of 10 minutes to 2 hours. The measurements reveal a maximum tidal range of ≈50 cm with 2-4 week oscillations in mean sea level of several cm. Sea slope, revealed by differences between adjacent gauges, varies 2-5 cm per 10 km at periods of 2-5 weeks, which imposes a disappointing limit to the utility of the gauges in estimating post seismic vertical motions. A parallel study of the form and elevation of coastal notches and mushroom rocks (rocks notched on all sides, hence forming a mushroom shape), along the coast west of Petit Goave suggests that these notches may provide an uplift history of the region over the past several hundreds of years. Notch sections in two areas were contoured, digitized, and compared to mean sea level. The notches mimic the histogram of sea level, suggesting that they are formed by dissolution by acidic surface waters. Notches formed two distinct levels, one approximately 58 cm above mean sea level, and the other approximately 157 cm above mean sea level. Several landslide blocks fell into the sea during the 2010 earthquake, and we anticipate these are destined for conversion to future mushroom rocks. Surfaces have been prepared on these blocks to study the rate of notch formation in situ, and samples are being subjected to acid corrosion in laboratory conditions, with the hope that the depth of notches may provide an estimate of the time of fall of previous rocks to help constrain the earthquake history of this area

  14. Synthesizing long-term sea level rise projections - the MAGICC sea level model v2.0

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nauels, Alexander; Meinshausen, Malte; Mengel, Matthias; Lorbacher, Katja; Wigley, Tom M. L.

    2017-06-01

    Sea level rise (SLR) is one of the major impacts of global warming; it will threaten coastal populations, infrastructure, and ecosystems around the globe in coming centuries. Well-constrained sea level projections are needed to estimate future losses from SLR and benefits of climate protection and adaptation. Process-based models that are designed to resolve the underlying physics of individual sea level drivers form the basis for state-of-the-art sea level projections. However, associated computational costs allow for only a small number of simulations based on selected scenarios that often vary for different sea level components. This approach does not sufficiently support sea level impact science and climate policy analysis, which require a sea level projection methodology that is flexible with regard to the climate scenario yet comprehensive and bound by the physical constraints provided by process-based models. To fill this gap, we present a sea level model that emulates global-mean long-term process-based model projections for all major sea level components. Thermal expansion estimates are calculated with the hemispheric upwelling-diffusion ocean component of the simple carbon-cycle climate model MAGICC, which has been updated and calibrated against CMIP5 ocean temperature profiles and thermal expansion data. Global glacier contributions are estimated based on a parameterization constrained by transient and equilibrium process-based projections. Sea level contribution estimates for Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are derived from surface mass balance and solid ice discharge parameterizations reproducing current output from ice-sheet models. The land water storage component replicates recent hydrological modeling results. For 2100, we project 0.35 to 0.56 m (66 % range) total SLR based on the RCP2.6 scenario, 0.45 to 0.67 m for RCP4.5, 0.46 to 0.71 m for RCP6.0, and 0.65 to 0.97 m for RCP8.5. These projections lie within the range of the latest IPCC SLR

  15. Potential impact of sea level rise on French islands worldwide

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Celine Bellard

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Although sea level rise is one of the most certain consequences of global warming, yet it remains one of the least studied. Several studies strongly suggested that sea level rise will accelerate in the future with a potentially rise from 0.5 to 2 m at the end of the century. However, currently island conservation programs do not take into account the potential effects of sea level rise. Therefore, we investigated the potential consequences of sea level rise for 1,269 French islands worldwide, by assessing the total number of island that will be totally submerged for three different scenarios (1, 2 and 3 m. Under the worst scenario, up to 12% of all islands could be entirely submerged. Two regions displayed the most significant loss of island: New Caledonia and French Polynesia. Focusing on New Caledonia, we highlighted that endemic plant species that are already classified as critically endangered by the IUCN will be the most vulnerable to sea level rise. Losses of insular habitats will thus be important in the next decades for the French islands. Given that French islands covers all latitudes in the Pacific, Indian and Atlantic oceans and in the Mediterranean, our results suggested that the implications for the 180 000 islands around the world should be considerable. Therefore, decision makers are required to define island conservation priorities that will suffer of the future sea level rise.

  16. Upper Limit for Regional Sea Level Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Jackson, Luke; Riva, Riccardo; Grinsted, Aslak; Moore, John

    2016-04-01

    With more than 150 million people living within 1 m of high tide future sea level rise is one of the most damaging aspects of warming climate. The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report (AR5 IPCC) noted that a 0.5 m rise in mean sea level will result in a dramatic increase the frequency of high water extremes - by an order of magnitude, or more in some regions. Thus the flood threat to the rapidly growing urban populations and associated infrastructure in coastal areas are major concerns for society. Hence, impact assessment, risk management, adaptation strategy and long-term decision making in coastal areas depend on projections of mean sea level and crucially its low probability, high impact, upper range. With probabilistic approach we produce regional sea level projections taking into account large uncertainties associated with Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets contribution. We calculate the upper limit (as 95%) for regional sea level projections by 2100 with RCP8.5 scenario, suggesting that for the most coastlines upper limit will exceed the global upper limit of 1.8 m.

  17. Recent Arctic Sea Level Variations from Satellites

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Piccioni, Gaia

    2016-01-01

    Sea level monitoring in the Arctic region has always been an extreme challenge for remote sensing, and in particular for satellite altimetry. Despite more than two decades of observations, altimetry is still limited in the inner Arctic Ocean. We have developed an updated version of the Danish...... Technical University's (DTU) Arctic Ocean altimetric sea level timeseries starting in 1993 and now extended up to 2015 with CryoSat-2 data. The time-series covers a total of 23 years, which allows higher accuracy in sea level trend determination. The record shows a sea level trend of 2.2 ± 1.1 mm....../y for the region between 66°N and 82°N. In particular, a local increase of 15 mm/y is found in correspondence to the Beaufort Gyre. An early estimate of the mean sea level trend budget closure in the Arctic for the period 2005–2015 was derived by using the Equivalent Water Heights obtained from GRACE Tellus...

  18. GPRS based real-time reporting and internet accessible sea level gauge for monitoring storm surge and tsunami

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Desai, R.G.P.; Joseph, A.; Agarvadekar, Y.; Dabholkar, N.; Mehra, P.; Gouveia, A.D.; Tengali, S.; VijayKumar, K.; Parab, A.

    graphical illustration of the predicted fair-weather sea level, the current sea level, and the residual sea level (i.e., measured minus predicted fair-weather sea level). Thus, a cost-effective and easily maintainable platform is realized for real...

  19. Visualizing Sea Level Rise with Augmented Reality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kintisch, E. S.

    2013-12-01

    Looking Glass is an application on the iPhone that visualizes in 3-D future scenarios of sea level rise, overlaid on live camera imagery in situ. Using a technology known as augmented reality, the app allows a layperson user to explore various scenarios of sea level rise using a visual interface. Then the user can see, in an immersive, dynamic way, how those scenarios would affect a real place. The first part of the experience activates users' cognitive, quantitative thinking process, teaching them how global sea level rise, tides and storm surge contribute to flooding; the second allows an emotional response to a striking visual depiction of possible future catastrophe. This project represents a partnership between a science journalist, MIT, and the Rhode Island School of Design, and the talk will touch on lessons this projects provides on structuring and executing such multidisciplinary efforts on future design projects.

  20. Current levels, composition profiles, source identification and potentially ecological risks of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in the surface sediments from Bohai Sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Guoguang; Peng, Jialin; Yang, Dandan; Zhang, Dahai; Li, Xianguo

    2015-12-30

    Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) were analyzed to assess the environmental quality in the surface sediments from Bohai Sea (BS), China. Concentrations of ∑37PCBs, ∑7PBDEs and BDE-209 were 0.157-1.699, 0.100-0.479 and 0.464-6.438 ng/g (dry weight), respectively. All of these concentrations decreased generally from the coastal areas towards the outer sea, indicating intensive influences of anthropogenic activities. Principal component analysis (PCA) coupled with multiple linear regression (MLR) revealed that 82.1% of the PCBs in BS came from direct discharge of local anthropogenic activities, 16.3% from surface runoff of contaminated soils and 1.6% from atmospheric deposition. PBDEs were mainly derived from the usage and dismantling of products containing commercial Penta-, Octa- and Deca-BDEs. According to sediment quality guidelines (SQGs), the ecological risks of PCBs could be negligible, and penta- and deca-BDE homologs might be the major contributors of ecological risks in the BS sediments.

  1. Incorporating future change into current conservation planning: Evaluating tidal saline wetland migration along the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast under alternative sea-level rise and urbanization scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enwright, Nicholas M.; Griffith, Kereen T.; Osland, Michael J.

    2015-11-02

    In this study, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, quantified the potential for landward migration of tidal saline wetlands along the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast under alternative future sea-level rise and urbanization scenarios. Our analyses focused exclusively on tidal saline wetlands (that is, mangrove forests, salt marshes, and salt flats), and we combined these diverse tidal saline wetland ecosystems into a single grouping, “tidal saline wetland.” Collectively, our approach and findings can provide useful information for scientists and environmental planners working to develop future-focused adaptation strategies for conserving coastal landscapes and the ecosystem goods and services provided by tidal saline wetlands. The primary product of this work is a public dataset that identifies locations where landward migration of tidal saline wetlands is expected to occur under alternative future sea-level rise and urbanization scenarios. In addition to identifying areas where landward migration of tidal saline wetlands is possible because of the absence of barriers, these data also identify locations where landward migration of these wetlands could be prevented by barriers associated with current urbanization, future urbanization, and levees.

  2. A projection of future sea level

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oerlemans, J.; Alfred-Wegener-lnstitut für Polar- und Meeresforschung, Bremerhaven, F.R.G.

    1989-01-01

    Evidence is reviewed that suggests faster sea-level rise when climate gets warmer. Four processes appear as dominating on a time scale of decades to centuries: melting of mountain glaciers and small ice caps, changes in the mass balance of the large polar ice sheets (Greenland, Antarctica), possible

  3. Evidence for long-term memory in sea level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dangendorf, Sönke; Rybski, Diego; Mudersbach, Christoph; Müller, Alfred; Kaufmann, Edgar; Zorita, Eduardo; Jensen, Jürgen

    2014-08-01

    Detection and attribution of anthropogenic climate change signals in sea level rise (SLR) has experienced considerable attention during the last decades. Here we provide evidence that superimposed on any possible anthropogenic trend there is a significant amount of natural decadal and multidecadal variability. Using a set of 60 centennial tide gauge records and an ocean reanalysis, we find that sea levels exhibit long-term correlations on time scales up to several decades that are independent of any systematic rise. A large fraction of this long-term variability is related to the steric component of sea level, but we also find long-term correlations in current estimates of mass loss from glaciers and ice caps. These findings suggest that (i) recent attempts to detect a significant acceleration in regional SLR might underestimate the impact of natural variability and (ii) any future regional SLR threshold might be exceeded earlier/later than from anthropogenic change alone.

  4. Sea Level Data Archaeology for the Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradshaw, Elizabeth; Matthews, Andy; Rickards, Lesley; Jevrejeva, Svetlana

    2015-04-01

    frequency data. The standard current method for digitising these data is to enter the values manually, which has been performed by GLOSS countries, including France and Spain. The GLOSS GE is exploring other methods for use in the future as this process is time consuming. Current projects to improve Handwritten Text Recognition (HTR) tend to be working with the written word and so require knowledge of sentence structures and word occurrence probabilities to reconstruct sentences e.g. tranScriptorium (European Union's Seventh Framework Programme funded project). This approach would not be applicable to sea level data, however tidal data by its very nature contains periodicity and predictability. HTR technology could be adapted to take this into account and improve the automatic digitisation of handwritten tide gauge ledgers. There are many challenges facing the sea level data archaeology community, but it is hoped that improvements in technology can overcome some of the obstacles: Faster automated digitisation of tide gauge charts Minimal user input Automatic transcribing of handwritten ledgers The GLOSS GE will provide a central location to share software, guidelines for quality controlling data and the GLOSS data archive centres will be the repository of the newly created datasets.

  5. Coastal subsidence and relative sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingebritsen, Steven E.; Galloway, Devin L.

    2014-01-01

    Subsurface fluid-pressure declines caused by pumping of groundwater or hydrocarbons can lead to aquifer-system compaction and consequent land subsidence. This subsidence can be rapid, as much as 30 cm per year in some instances, and large, totaling more than 13 m in extreme examples. Thus anthropogenic subsidence may be the dominant contributor to relative sea-level rise in coastal environments where subsurface fluids are heavily exploited. Maximum observed rates of human-induced subsidence greatly exceed the rates of natural subsidence of unconsolidated sediments (~0.1–1 cm yr−1) and the estimated rates of ongoing global sea-level rise (~0.3 cm yr−1).

  6. A projection of future sea level

    OpenAIRE

    1989-01-01

    Evidence is reviewed that suggests faster sea-level rise when climate gets warmer. Four processes appear as dominating on a time scale of decades to centuries: melting of mountain glaciers and small ice caps, changes in the mass balance of the large polar ice sheets (Greenland, Antarctica), possible ice-flow instabilities (in particular on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet), and thermal expansion of ocean water. For a given temperature scenario, an attempt is made to estimate the different contrib...

  7. Gulf of Mexico sea level curve

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tanner, W.F.; Demirpolat, S. (Florida State Univ., Tallahassee (USA)); Stapor, F.W. (Tennessee Technological Univ., Cookeville (USA)); Alvarez, L. (Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico (Mexico))

    1989-09-01

    Beach ridge plains on four sides of the Gulf of Mexico produced a new, better sea level history for late Holocene time: St. Vincent Island, Florida panhandle; Sanibel Island, lower peninsula of Florida; Mesa del Gavilan, east of Brownsville, Texas; and Isla del Carmen, in the state of Campeche, Mexico. On St. Vincent Island there are more than 300 data points (elevation and relative age), each taken from a beach ridge or a swale. These ridges and swales can be grouped in sets; some sets stand high, and some are low. Their boundaries mark rises and drops of sea level. The St. Vincent Island data fall in a continuous time sequence. The types of data available on and adjacent to this island are topographic (plane-table work), sedimentological (high-precision grain size parameters), photographic (air photos), and pedologic. All of these data agree in meaning, as far as sea level history is concerned. They provide a record of changes, both up and down, in the range of about 1 m to perhaps as much as 3-4 m. Three rises and two drops in the last 6,000 years are obvious. Changes as small as 10-50 cm probably cannot be detected by the methods at hand, but it is highly unlikely, with hundreds of data points in one small study area, that major changes (1 m or more) have been overlooked. The latest change was a rise, about 800 years ago.

  8. Current plate motions across the Red Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Dezhi; Gordon, Richard G.

    1998-11-01

    A new objective method is used to estimate precisely 64 rates of seafloor spreading since chron 2A (3.2 Ma) from all the Red Sea magnetic profiles available from 15.9° to 26°N. The fastest spreading rate, ~16 mm yr-1, occurs near 18°N, whereas the slowest rate, 10 mm yr-1, occurs at 25.5°N and is consistent with the rate predicted from Arabia-Nubia data to the south. The standard deviation of the spreading rates is 0.8 mm yr-1, much smaller than the median standard deviation of 4 mm yr-1 previously assigned to spreading rates in the global plate-motion model NUVEL-1 (DeMets et al. 1990). The fit to the spreading rates, as well as the locations of earthquakes in and near the Red Sea, indicate that spreading south of approximately 17.7°N is less than the full rate of spreading between the Arabian and Nubian plates. The Red Sea spreading centre is instead usefully interpreted as the boundary between the Arabian Plate and a Danakil microplate that includes the subaerial Danakil block and a larger oceanic portion of lithosphere. Despite the absence of reliable azimuths of transform faults in the Red Sea, all components of the angular velocity of Arabia relative to Nubia are usefully constrained from just the 45 relevant spreading rates. The new compact 95 per cent confidence region of the angular velocity excludes prior estimates based on only four and two spreading rates by Chase (1978) and Jestin et al. (1994), respectively. 19 spreading rates in the southern Red Sea are used to estimate the angular velocity between the Danakil microplate and Arabia. An approach based on singular value decomposition shows that without slip vectors only two of the three components of the angular velocity of the Danakil microplate relative to Arabia or Nubia are usefully constrained, but that all three components are usefully constrained if one earthquake slip vector is included.

  9. Sea Levels Online: Sea Level Variations of the United States Derived from National Water Level Observation Network Stations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Water level records are a combination of the fluctuations of the ocean and the vertical land motion at the location of the station. Monthly mean sea level (MSL)...

  10. THE INEXPENSIVE DEVICE FOR SEA LEVEL MEASUREMENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Annunziato

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available A new mareograph device has been designed at the Joint Research Centre (JRC of the European Commission (EC in order improve the sea level network in use for the Tsunami Hazard monitoring in the Mediterranean Sea and in the North Atlantic area (NEAMTWS area of UNESCO. The instrument has the characteristic to be cheap and very effective but its reliability, duration and quality need to be determined and qualified. For this reason a number of experimental campaigns are being conducted, whose first results are presented here. In collaboration with the UNESCO/IOC (Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission, responsible of the definition of the Tsunami Warning System of this geographical area, a set of 20 devices has been offered by JRC for a period of 1 year of testing of the devices; the surveys for the installation of the devices is under way and the installation should be completed by the end of 2015.

  11. Global Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Level Rise Estimation with Optimal Historical Time Lag Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mustafa M. Aral

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Prediction of global temperatures and sea level rise (SLR is important for sustainable development planning of coastal regions of the world and the health and safety of communities living in these regions. In this study, climate change effects on sea level rise is investigated using a dynamic system model (DSM with time lag on historical input data. A time-invariant (TI-DSM and time-variant dynamic system model (TV-DSM with time lag is developed to predict global temperatures and SLR in the 21st century. The proposed model is an extension of the DSM developed by the authors. The proposed model includes the effect of temperature and sea level states of several previous years on the current temperature and sea level over stationary and also moving scale time periods. The optimal time lag period used in the model is determined by minimizing a synthetic performance index comprised of the root mean square error and coefficient of determination which is a measure for the reliability of the predictions. Historical records of global temperature and sea level from 1880 to 2001 are used to calibrate the model. The optimal time lag is determined to be eight years, based on the performance measures. The calibrated model was then used to predict the global temperature and sea levels in the 21st century using a fixed time lag period and moving scale time lag periods. To evaluate the adverse effect of greenhouse gas emissions on SLR, the proposed model was also uncoupled to project the SLR based on global temperatures that are obtained from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC emission scenarios. The projected SLR estimates for the 21st century are presented comparatively with the predictions made in previous studies.

  12. Fine-resolution simulation of surface current and sea ice in the Arctic Mediterranean Seas

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Xiying; ZHANG Xuehong; YU Rucong; LIU Hailong; LI Wei

    2007-01-01

    A fine-resolution model is developed for ocean circulation simulation in the National Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG),Chinese Academy of Sciences, and is applied to simulate surface current and sea ice variations in the Arctic Mediterranean Seas. A dynamic sea ice model in elastic-viscous-plastic rheology and a thermodynamic sea ice model are employed. A 200-year simulation is performed and a dimatological average of a 10-year period (141 st-150 th) is presented with focus on sea ice concentration and surface current variations in the Arctic Mediterranean Seas. The model is able to simulate well the East Greenland Current, Beaufort Gyre and the Transpolar Drift, but the simulated West Spitsbergen Current is small and weak. In the March climatology, the sea ice coverage can be simulated well except for a bit more ice in east of Spitsbergen Island. The result is also good for the September scenario except for less ice concentration east of Greenland and greater ice concentration near the ice margin. The extra ice east of Spitsbergen Island is caused by sea ice current convergence forced by atmospheric wind stress.

  13. Probabilistic projection of sea-level change along the world's coastlines

    OpenAIRE

    Perrette, M.; F. Landerer; Riva, R.; Frieler, K.; Meinshausen, M.

    2012-01-01

    Climate change causes global mean sea level to rise due to thermal expansion of seawater and loss of land ice from mountain glaciers, ice caps and ice-sheets. Locally, sea-level changes can strongly deviate from the global mean due to ocean dynamics. In addition, gravitational adjustments redistribute seawater away from shrinking ice masses, an effect currently not incorporated in climate models. Here, we provide probabilistic projections of sea level changes along the world's coastlines for ...

  14. A scaling approach to project regional sea level rise and its uncertainties

    OpenAIRE

    Perrette, M.; F. Landerer; Riva, R.; Frieler, K.; Meinshausen, M.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change causes global mean sea level to rise due to thermal expansion of seawater and loss of land ice from mountain glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets. Locally, sea level can strongly deviate from the global mean rise due to changes in wind and ocean currents. In addition, gravitational adjustments redistribute seawater away from shrinking ice masses. However, the land ice contribution to sea level rise (SLR) remains very challenging to model, and comprehensive region...

  15. Measurements of sea level off Tikkavanipalem - Coast India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Joseph, A.; Desai, R.G.P.; Peshwe, V.B.; Desa, E.; VijayKumar, K.; Desa, E.S.; Mehra, P.; Nagvekar, S.

    that are induced by local and remote meteorological forcings. The sea level residue (i.e. measured sea level minus the astronomically induced sea level) in this region is particularly by the local wind pattern and air pressure variations. The observed response...

  16. Extraction of Internal Tidal Currents from A Portion of Sea Current Profile

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    韩春明; 潘增弟; 范典

    2002-01-01

    Internal tide is one of the major oceanic phenomena. Determination of internal tide is important for theoretical studyand for ocean engineering research. As an inverse problem, extraction of internal tidal currents from sea currents is diffi-cult. In this paper, a method is developed to extract internal tidal currents from a portion of the sea current profile basedon the fact that the directions of internal tidal currents above and below the thermocline are inverse. Sea current data col-lected from the South China Sea is processed with this method. The internal tidal currents and the depth of the thermo-cline are successfully extracted. The depth of the thermocline determined is in good agreement with that measured in 1959.

  17. Sea-Level Rise by 2100

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Church, J.A; Clark, P.A; Cazenave, A; Gregory, J.M.; Jevrejeva, S.; Levermann, A; Merrifield, M.A; Milne, G.A.; Nerem, R.S.; Nunn, P.D.; Payne, A.J.; Pfeffer, W.T.; Stammer, D.; Unnikrishnan, A.S.

    VOL 342 20 DECEMBER 2013 1445 LETTERS edited by Jennifer Sills 1462 COMMENTARY LETTERS I BOOKS I POLICY FORUM I EDUCATION FORUM I PERSPECTIVES 1452 Defending the nest IBI Prize Essay C R E D IT : A N D R E W M A N D E M A K E R /W IK IM E... D IA C O M M O N S Sea-Level Rise by 2100 IN HIS NEWS AND ANALYSIS PIECE REPORTING ON THE NEWLY RELEASED FIFTH ASSESSMENT report (AR5) by Working Group I (WGI) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (“A Stronger IPCC Report,” 4...

  18. Climate Sensitivity, Sea Level, and Atmospheric CO2

    CERN Document Server

    Hansen, James; Russell, Gary; Kharecha, Pushker

    2012-01-01

    Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 co-variations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea level sensitivity to climate change. Pleistocene climate oscillations imply a fast-feedback climate sensitivity 3 {\\pm} 1 {\\deg}C for 4 W/m2 CO2 forcing for the average of climate states between the Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the error estimate being large and partly subjective because of continuing uncertainty about LGM global surface climate. Slow feedbacks, especially change of ice sheet size and atmospheric CO2, amplify total Earth system sensitivity. Ice sheet response time is poorly defined, but we suggest that hysteresis and slow response in current ice sheet models are exaggerated. We use a global model, simplified to essential processes, to investigate state-dependence of climate sensitivity, finding a strong increase in sensitivity when global temperature reaches early Cenozoic and higher levels, as increased water vapor eliminates the tropopause. It follows that...

  19. Storminess helps coastal marshes withstand sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balcerak, Ernie

    2013-03-01

    Rising sea levels are predicted to threaten many coastal sea marshes around the world in the coming decades as the Earth's climate warms. In addition to accelerating sea level rise, global climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and severity of storms in many places around the world. However, few studies have taken into account how an increased storminess might affect the ability of coastal marshes to withstand sea level rise.

  20. Current knowledge, gaps and challenges in the Southern European Seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papathanassiou, Evangelos

    2015-04-01

    New knowledge advances our current understanding on the selection and application of the appropriate tools for assessing the state of the marine environment in the Southern European Seas (SES). Diminishing the lack of knowledge is a prerequisite for sound policy decisions. Although gaps and knowledge are fewer today, the health of marine and coastal ecosystems in the SES is under pressure and shows, in places, some signs of deterioration and declining quality. Overall, there is a lack of data accessibility and long time series in the SES, while in many cases poorly constrained processes cannot really support knowledge-based policy making (e.g. ecosystem functioning, climate change, fisheries management, etc.). New knowledge has to be produced and excellence must be promoted to support sustainable economic growth. At the same time, existing and new capacities have to be upgraded and increased in order to support sustainable convergence between SES countries. There are several gaps that have been identified and processes that have been poorly understood in the SES, mainly from research projects that have been working at basin level. The main research priorities that have been identified from the SeasERA Project for both, the Mediterranean and the Black Sea include: the climate change and its impacts, the hydrological cycle, the ventilation and the inter-basin coupling, the marine biodiversity and the provision of goods and services, the marine protected areas, the deep sea ecosystems, the biological invasions, the marine pollution and the ocean and human health, the renewable energy, the maritime transport, the fisheries and aquaculture activities and the biotechnology and the exploitation of marine resources for industrial application. More important, however, is the fact that the economic, the social and the scientific and the environmental challenges must be collectively tackled. They should have prioritisation and clear objectives as well as data sharing for

  1. Probabilistic reanalysis of twentieth-century sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hay, Carling C.; Morrow, Eric; Kopp, Robert E.; Mitrovica, Jerry X.

    2015-01-01

    Estimating and accounting for twentieth-century global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise is critical to characterizing current and future human-induced sea-level change. Several previous analyses of tide gauge records--employing different methods to accommodate the spatial sparsity and temporal incompleteness of the data and to constrain the geometry of long-term sea-level change--have concluded that GMSL rose over the twentieth century at a mean rate of 1.6 to 1.9 millimetres per year. Efforts to account for this rate by summing estimates of individual contributions from glacier and ice-sheet mass loss, ocean thermal expansion, and changes in land water storage fall significantly short in the period before 1990. The failure to close the budget of GMSL during this period has led to suggestions that several contributions may have been systematically underestimated. However, the extent to which the limitations of tide gauge analyses have affected estimates of the GMSL rate of change is unclear. Here we revisit estimates of twentieth-century GMSL rise using probabilistic techniques and find a rate of GMSL rise from 1901 to 1990 of 1.2 +/- 0.2 millimetres per year (90% confidence interval). Based on individual contributions tabulated in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this estimate closes the twentieth-century sea-level budget. Our analysis, which combines tide gauge records with physics-based and model-derived geometries of the various contributing signals, also indicates that GMSL rose at a rate of 3.0 +/- 0.7 millimetres per year between 1993 and 2010, consistent with prior estimates from tide gauge records. The increase in rate relative to the 1901-90 trend is accordingly larger than previously thought; this revision may affect some projections of future sea-level rise.

  2. Anthropogenic forcing dominates sea level rise since 1850

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Grinsted, Aslak; Moore, John

    2009-01-01

    The rate of sea level rise and its causes are topics of active debate. Here we use a delayed response statistical model to attribute the past 1000 years of sea level variability to various natural (volcanic and solar radiative) and anthropogenic (greenhouse gases and aerosols) forcings. We show...... that until 1800 the main drivers of sea level change are volcanic and solar radiative forcings. For the past 200 years sea level rise is mostly associated with anthropogenic factors. Only 4 ± 1.5 cm (25% of total sea level rise) during the 20th century is attributed to natural forcings, the remaining 14 ± 1...

  3. Long Term Sea Level Change and Water Mass Balance in the South China Sea

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    RONG Zengrui; LIU Yuguang; ZONG Haibo; XIU Peng

    2009-01-01

    Sea level anomalies observed by altimeter during the 1993-2006 period, thermosterie sea level anomalies estimated by using subsurface temperature data produced by Ishii and SODA reanalysis data, tide gauge records and HOAPS freshwater flux data were analyzed to investigate the long term sea level change and the water mass balance in the South China Sea. The altimeter-observed sea level showed a rising rate of (3.5±0.9)mm yr-1 during the period 1993-2006, but this figure was considered to have been highly distorted by the relatively short time interval and the large inter-decadal variability, which apparently exists in both the thermosteric sea level and the observed sea level. Long term thermosteric sea level from 1945 to 2004 gave a rising rate of 0.15±0.06 mmyr-1. Tide gauge data revealed this discrepancy and the regional distributions of the sea-level trends. Both the 'real' and the thermosteric sea level showed a good correspondence to ENSO: decreasing during E1 Nifio years and increasing during La Nina years. Amplitude and phase differences between the 'real' sea level and the thermosteic sea level were substantially revealed on both seasonal and interannual time scales. As one of the possible factors, the freshwater flux might play an important role in balancing the water mass.

  4. Quantifying Boundary Currents in the Arabian Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-30

    existing HRX transect data, currently maintained by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO DMAR. In particular, the focus will be on transect...All XBT data from 1986 through 2014 along IX12 have now been obtained from the Bureau of Meteorology . Initial efforts have concentrated on quality

  5. Tidal Marshes across a Chesapeake Bay Subestuary Are Not Keeping up with Sea-Level Rise

    OpenAIRE

    Beckett, Leah H.; Baldwin, Andrew H.; Kearney, Michael S

    2016-01-01

    Sea-level rise is a major factor in wetland loss worldwide, and in much of Chesapeake Bay (USA) the rate of sea-level rise is higher than the current global rate of 3.2 mm yr-1 due to regional subsidence. Marshes along estuarine salinity gradients differ in vegetation composition, productivity, decomposition pathways, and sediment dynamics, and may exhibit different responses to sea-level rise. Coastal marshes persist by building vertically at rates at or exceeding regional sea-level rise. In...

  6. Barrier response to Holocene sea-level rise

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pejrup, Morten; Andersen, Thorbjørn Joest; Johannessen, Peter N

    Normally it is believed that sea-level rise causes coastal barrier retreat. However, sea-level is only one of the parameters determining the long term coastal development of barrier coasts. Sediment supply is an equally important determinant and may overshadow the effects of sea-level rise...... show quite different responses to sea-level rise. The southernmost island Rømø has survived 17 m of sea-level rise at the same position illustrating the control from sediment supply; whereas the northernmost island Skallingen has shifted its position several times during the same period indicating...... a much stronger component of sea-level control. The distance between the islands is only 50 km, and therefore our study shows that prediction of barrier development during a period of rising sea level may be more complicated than formerly believed....

  7. Sea-level variation/change and thermal contribution in the Bering Sea

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZUO Juncheng; ZHANG Jianli; DU Ling; LI Peiliang; LI Lei

    2005-01-01

    The long-term sea-level trend in the Bering Sea is obtained by the analysis of TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter data, including the data of two tide gauges. The averaged sea-level in the Bering Sea rises at a rate of 2.47 mm/a from 1992 to 2002. The mean sea-level is falling in the most part of the Bering Sea, especially in its central basin, and it is rising in the northeastern part of the Bering Sea. During the 1998/99 change, the sea-level anomaly differences exhibit a significant sea-level anomaly fall in the deep basin of the Bering Sea,which is roughly in the same position where a prominent SST fall exists. The maximal fall of sea-level is about 10 cm in the southwestern part of the Bering Sea, and the maximal fall of about 2℃ in the SST also appeared in the same region as the sea level did.The steric sea-level change due to temperature variations is discussed. The results are compared with the TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter data at the different spatial scales. It is indicated that the seasonal amplitude of the steric height is about 35% of the observed TOPEX/Poseidon amplitude, which is much smaller than the 83% in the mid-latitudes area. The systematic difference between the TOPEX/Poseidon data with the range of about 7.5 cm and the thermal contribution with the range of about 2.5 cm is about 5 cm. This indicates that the thermal effect on the sea level is not as important as the case in the mid-latitudes area. In the Bering Sea, the phase of the steric height leads the observed sea level by about three months.

  8. Updating Maryland's sea-level rise projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boesch, Donald F.; Atkinson, Larry P.; Boicourt, William C.; Boon, John D.; Cahoon, Donald R.; Dalrymple, Robert A.; Ezer, Tal; Horton, Benjamin P.; Johnson, Zoe P.; Kopp, Robert E.; Li, Ming; Moss, Richard H.; Parris, Adam; Sommerfield, Christopher K.

    2013-01-01

    With its 3,100 miles of tidal shoreline and low-lying rural and urban lands, “The Free State” is one of the most vulnerable to sea-level rise. Historically, Marylanders have long had to contend with rising water levels along its Chesapeake Bay and Atlantic Ocean and coastal bay shores. Shorelines eroded and low-relief lands and islands, some previously inhabited, were inundated. Prior to the 20th century, this was largely due to the slow sinking of the land since Earth’s crust is still adjusting to the melting of large masses of ice following the last glacial period. Over the 20th century, however, the rate of rise of the average level of tidal waters with respect to land, or relative sea-level rise, has increased, at least partially as a result of global warming. Moreover, the scientific evidence is compelling that Earth’s climate will continue to warm and its oceans will rise even more rapidly. Recognizing the scientific consensus around global climate change, the contribution of human activities to it, and the vulnerability of Maryland’s people, property, public investments, and natural resources, Governor Martin O’Malley established the Maryland Commission on Climate Change on April 20, 2007. The Commission produced a Plan of Action that included a comprehensive climate change impact assessment, a greenhouse gas reduction strategy, and strategies for reducing Maryland’s vulnerability to climate change. The Plan has led to landmark legislation to reduce the state’s greenhouse gas emissions and a variety of state policies designed to reduce energy consumption and promote adaptation to climate change.

  9. Sea-level rise: towards understanding local vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahmstorf, Stefan

    2012-06-01

    , experts are increasingly looking at its potential impacts on coasts to facilitate local adaptation planning. This is a more complex issue than one might think, because different stretches of coast can be affected in very different ways. First of all, the sea-level response to global warming will not be globally uniform, since factors like changes in ocean currents (Levermann et al 2005) and the changing gravitational pull of continental ice (Mitrovica et al 2001) affect the local rise. Secondly, superimposed on the climatic trend is natural variability in sea level, which regionally can be as large as the climatic signal on multi-decadal timescales. Over the past decades, sea level has dropped in sizable parts of the world ocean, although it has of course risen in global mean (IPCC 2007). Thirdly, local land uplift or subsidence affects the local sea-level change relative to the coast, both for natural reasons (post-glacial isostatic adjustment centred on regions that were covered by ice sheets during the last ice age) and artificial ones (e.g., extraction of water or oil as in the Gulf of Mexico). Finally, local vulnerability to sea-level rise depends on many factors. Two interesting new studies in this journal (Tebaldi et al 2012, Strauss et al 2012) make important steps towards understanding sea-level vulnerability along the coasts of the United States, with methods that could also be applied elsewhere. The first, by Strauss and colleagues, merges high-resolution topographic data and a newly available tidal model together with population and housing data in order to estimate what land area and population would be at risk given certain increments in sea level. The results are mapped and tabulated at county and city level. They reveal the 'hot spots' along the US coast where sea-level rise is of the highest concern because of large populations living near the high-tide line: New York City and Long Island; the New Jersey shore; the Norfolk, Virginia, area; near Charleston

  10. Is the detection of accelerated sea level rise imminent?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fasullo, J. T.; Nerem, R. S.; Hamlington, B.

    2016-08-01

    Global mean sea level rise estimated from satellite altimetry provides a strong constraint on climate variability and change and is expected to accelerate as the rates of both ocean warming and cryospheric mass loss increase over time. In stark contrast to this expectation however, current altimeter products show the rate of sea level rise to have decreased from the first to second decades of the altimeter era. Here, a combined analysis of altimeter data and specially designed climate model simulations shows the 1991 eruption of Mt Pinatubo to likely have masked the acceleration that would have otherwise occurred. This masking arose largely from a recovery in ocean heat content through the mid to late 1990 s subsequent to major heat content reductions in the years following the eruption. A consequence of this finding is that barring another major volcanic eruption, a detectable acceleration is likely to emerge from the noise of internal climate variability in the coming decade.

  11. Tidal elevation, current, and energy flux in the area between the South China Sea and Java Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Zexun; Fang, Guohong; Dwi Susanto, R.; Rameyo Adi, Tukul; Fan, Bin; Setiawan, Agus; Li, Shujiang; Wang, Yonggang; Gao, Xiumin

    2016-04-01

    The South China Sea (SCS) and the Java Sea (JS) are connected through the Karimata Strait, Gaspar Strait, and the southern Natuna Sea, where the tides are often used as open boundary condition for tidal simulation in the SCS or Indonesian seas. Tides, tidal currents, and tidal energy fluxes of the principle constituents K1, O1, Q1, M2, S2, and N2 at five stations in this area have been analyzed using in situ observational data. The results show that the diurnal tides are the dominant constituents in the entire study area. The constituent K1 has the largest amplitude, exceeding 50 cm, whereas the amplitudes of M2 are smaller than 5 cm at all stations. The amplitudes of S2 may exceed M2 in the Karimata and Gaspar straits. Tidal currents are mostly of rectilinear type in this area. The semi-major axes lengths of the diurnal tidal current ellipses are about 10 cm s-1, and those of the semidiurnal tidal currents are smaller than 5 cm s-1. The diurnal tidal energy flows from the SCS to the JS. The semidiurnal tidal energy flows from the SCS to the JS through the Karimata Strait and the eastern part of the southern Natuna Sea but flows in the opposite direction in the Gaspar Strait and the western part of the southern Natuna Sea. Harmonic analysis of sea level and current observation also suggest that the study area is located in the antinodal band of the diurnal tidal waves, and in the nodal band of the semidiurnal tidal waves. Comparisons show that the existing models are basically consistent with the observational results, but further improvements are necessary.

  12. Deglacial sea level history of the East Siberian Sea and Chukchi Sea margins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cronin, Thomas M.; O'Regan, Matt; Pearce, Christof; Gemery, Laura; Toomey, Michael; Semiletov, Igor; Jakobsson, Martin

    2017-09-01

    Deglacial (12.8-10.7 ka) sea level history on the East Siberian continental shelf and upper continental slope was reconstructed using new geophysical records and sediment cores taken during Leg 2 of the 2014 SWERUS-C3 expedition. The focus of this study is two cores from Herald Canyon, piston core SWERUS-L2-4-PC1 (4-PC1) and multicore SWERUS-L2-4-MC1 (4-MC1), and a gravity core from an East Siberian Sea transect, SWERUS-L2-20-GC1 (20-GC1). Cores 4-PC1 and 20-GC were taken at 120 and 115 m of modern water depth, respectively, only a few meters above the global last glacial maximum (LGM; ˜ 24 kiloannum or ka) minimum sea level of ˜ 125-130 meters below sea level (m b.s.l.). Using calibrated radiocarbon ages mainly on molluscs for chronology and the ecology of benthic foraminifera and ostracode species to estimate paleodepths, the data reveal a dominance of river-proximal species during the early part of the Younger Dryas event (YD, Greenland Stadial GS-1) followed by a rise in river-intermediate species in the late Younger Dryas or the early Holocene (Preboreal) period. A rapid relative sea level rise beginning at roughly 11.4 to 10.8 ka ( ˜ 400 cm of core depth) is indicated by a sharp faunal change and unconformity or condensed zone of sedimentation. Regional sea level at this time was about 108 m b.s.l. at the 4-PC1 site and 102 m b.s.l. at 20-GC1. Regional sea level near the end of the YD was up to 42-47 m lower than predicted by geophysical models corrected for glacio-isostatic adjustment. This discrepancy could be explained by delayed isostatic adjustment caused by a greater volume and/or geographical extent of glacial-age land ice and/or ice shelves in the western Arctic Ocean and adjacent Siberian land areas.

  13. Differences between mean tide level and mean sea level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodworth, P. L.

    2016-07-01

    This paper discusses the differences between mean tide level (MTL) and mean sea level (MSL) as demonstrated using information from a global tide gauge data set. The roles of the two main contributors to differences between MTL and MSL (the M4 harmonic of the M2 semidiurnal tide, and the combination of the diurnal tides K1 and O1) are described, with a particular focus on the spatial scales of variation in MTL-MSL due to each contributor. Findings from the tide gauge data set are contrasted with those from a state-of-the-art global tide model. The study is of interest within tidal science, but also has practical importance regarding the type of mean level used to define land survey datums. In addition, an appreciation of MTL-MSL difference is important in the use of the historical sea level data used in climate change research, with implications for some of the data stored in international databanks. Particular studies are made of how MTL and MSL might differ through the year, and if MTL is measured in daylight hours only, as has been the practice of some national geodetic agencies on occasions in the past.

  14. Differences between mean tide level and mean sea level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodworth, P. L.

    2017-01-01

    This paper discusses the differences between mean tide level (MTL) and mean sea level (MSL) as demonstrated using information from a global tide gauge data set. The roles of the two main contributors to differences between MTL and MSL (the M4 harmonic of the M2 semidiurnal tide, and the combination of the diurnal tides K1 and O1) are described, with a particular focus on the spatial scales of variation in MTL-MSL due to each contributor. Findings from the tide gauge data set are contrasted with those from a state-of-the-art global tide model. The study is of interest within tidal science, but also has practical importance regarding the type of mean level used to define land survey datums. In addition, an appreciation of MTL-MSL difference is important in the use of the historical sea level data used in climate change research, with implications for some of the data stored in international databanks. Particular studies are made of how MTL and MSL might differ through the year, and if MTL is measured in daylight hours only, as has been the practice of some national geodetic agencies on occasions in the past.

  15. Mean Tide Level Data in the PSMSL Mean Sea Level Dataset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, Andrew; Bradshaw, Elizabeth; Gordon, Kathy; Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Rickards, Lesley; Tamisiea, Mark; Williams, Simon; Woodworth, Philip

    2016-04-01

    The Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) is the internationally recognised global sea level data bank for long term sea level change information from tide gauges. Established in 1933, the PSMSL continues to be responsible for the collection, publication, analysis and interpretation of sea level data. The PSMSL operates under the auspices of the International Council for Science (ICSU), is a regular member of the ICSU World Data System and is associated with the International Association for the Physical Sciences of the Oceans (IAPSO) and the International Association of Geodesy (IAG). The PSMSL continues to work closely with other members of the sea level community through the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission's Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS). Currently, the PSMSL data bank holds over 67,000 station-years of monthly and annual mean sea level data from over 2250 tide gauge stations. Data from each site are quality controlled and, wherever possible, reduced to a common datum, whose stability is monitored through a network of geodetic benchmarks. PSMSL also distributes a data bank of measurements taken from in-situ ocean bottom pressure recorders. Most of the records in the main PSMSL dataset indicate mean sea level (MSL), derived from high-frequency tide gauge data, with sampling typically once per hour or higher. However, some of the older data is based on mean tide level (MTL), which is obtained from measurements taken at high and low tide only. While usually very close, MSL and MTL can occasionally differ by many centimetres, particularly in shallow water locations. As a result, care must be taken when using long sea level records that contain periods of MTL data. Previously, periods during which the values indicated MTL rather than MSL were noted in the documentation, and sometimes suggested corrections were supplied. However, these comments were easy to miss, particularly in large scale studies that used multiple stations from across

  16. GHRSST Level 4 DMI_OI North Sea and Baltic Sea Regional Foundation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (GDS version 1)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on an operational basis by the Danish...

  17. Long-term sea level change in the Malaysian seas from multi-mission altimetry data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Din, A.H.; Omar, K.M.; Naeije, M.C.; Ses, S.

    2012-01-01

    The long-term sea level change during 1993 to 2008 was investigated in the Malaysian seas from satellite altimetry data of the TOPEX, JASON-1, ERS-1, ERS-2 and ENVISAT missions. Sea level data retrieval and reduction were carried out using the radar altimeter database system (RADS). In RADS data pro

  18. GHRSST Level 4 ODYSSEA Mediterranean Sea Regional Foundation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (GDS version 1)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on an operational basis at Ifremer/CERSAT...

  19. GHRSST Level 4 EUR Mediterranean Sea Regional Foundation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (GDS version 2)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily by Ifremer/CERSAT (France) using optimal...

  20. Global sea level change: Determination and interpretation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglas, Bruce C.

    1995-07-01

    The notion of sea level rise brings to the popular mind the specter of deep inundation of coastal regions. One pictures skyscrapers emerging from the waters like so many sleeping flamingos standing in the shallows of a lake. Of course if all of the world's ice sheets suddenly melted or collapsed, this vision would apply to New York City and its coastal counterparts. But there is a general consensus that such a calamity is not an immediate threat [Houghton et al, 1990]. The actual situation for the recent historical past and near future appears to be more benign, but with nonetheless extremely significant, even devastating impacts due to erosion and flooding of coastal areas.

  1. Portrait of a Warming Ocean and Rising Sea Levels: Trend of Sea Level Change 1993-2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-01-01

    Warming water and melting land ice have raised global mean sea level 4.5 centimeters (1.7 inches) from 1993 to 2008. But the rise is by no means uniform. This image, created with sea surface height data from the Topex/Poseidon and Jason-1 satellites, shows exactly where sea level has changed during this time and how quickly these changes have occurred. It's also a road map showing where the ocean currently stores the growing amount of heat it is absorbing from Earth's atmosphere and the heat it receives directly from the Sun. The warmer the water, the higher the sea surface rises. The location of heat in the ocean and its movement around the globe play a pivotal role in Earth's climate. Light blue indicates areas in which sea level has remained relatively constant since 1993. White, red, and yellow are regions where sea levels have risen the most rapidly up to 10 millimeters per year and which contain the most heat. Green areas have also risen, but more moderately. Purple and dark blue show where sea levels have dropped, due to cooler water. The dramatic variation in sea surface heights and heat content across the ocean are due to winds, currents and long-term changes in patterns of circulation. From 1993 to 2008, the largest area of rapidly rising sea levels and the greatest concentration of heat has been in the Pacific, which now shows the characteristics of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), a feature that can last 10 to 20 years or even longer. In this 'cool' phase, the PDO appears as a horseshoe-shaped pattern of warm water in the Western Pacific reaching from the far north to the Southern Ocean enclosing a large wedge of cool water with low sea surface heights in the eastern Pacific. This ocean/climate phenomenon may be caused by wind-driven Rossby waves. Thousands of kilometers long, these waves move from east to west on either side of the equator changing the distribution of water mass and heat. This image of sea level trend also reveals a significant

  2. Portrait of a Warming Ocean and Rising Sea Levels: Trend of Sea Level Change 1993-2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-01-01

    Warming water and melting land ice have raised global mean sea level 4.5 centimeters (1.7 inches) from 1993 to 2008. But the rise is by no means uniform. This image, created with sea surface height data from the Topex/Poseidon and Jason-1 satellites, shows exactly where sea level has changed during this time and how quickly these changes have occurred. It's also a road map showing where the ocean currently stores the growing amount of heat it is absorbing from Earth's atmosphere and the heat it receives directly from the Sun. The warmer the water, the higher the sea surface rises. The location of heat in the ocean and its movement around the globe play a pivotal role in Earth's climate. Light blue indicates areas in which sea level has remained relatively constant since 1993. White, red, and yellow are regions where sea levels have risen the most rapidly up to 10 millimeters per year and which contain the most heat. Green areas have also risen, but more moderately. Purple and dark blue show where sea levels have dropped, due to cooler water. The dramatic variation in sea surface heights and heat content across the ocean are due to winds, currents and long-term changes in patterns of circulation. From 1993 to 2008, the largest area of rapidly rising sea levels and the greatest concentration of heat has been in the Pacific, which now shows the characteristics of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), a feature that can last 10 to 20 years or even longer. In this 'cool' phase, the PDO appears as a horseshoe-shaped pattern of warm water in the Western Pacific reaching from the far north to the Southern Ocean enclosing a large wedge of cool water with low sea surface heights in the eastern Pacific. This ocean/climate phenomenon may be caused by wind-driven Rossby waves. Thousands of kilometers long, these waves move from east to west on either side of the equator changing the distribution of water mass and heat. This image of sea level trend also reveals a significant

  3. Glacier calving, dynamics, and sea-level rise. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meier, M.F.; Pfeffer, W.T.; Amadei, B.

    1998-08-01

    The present-day calving flux from Greenland and Antarctica is poorly known, and this accounts for a significant portion of the uncertainty in the current mass balance of these ice sheets. Similarly, the lack of knowledge about the role of calving in glacier dynamics constitutes a major uncertainty in predicting the response of glaciers and ice sheets to changes in climate and thus sea level. Another fundamental problem has to do with incomplete knowledge of glacier areas and volumes, needed for analyses of sea-level change due to changing climate. The authors proposed to develop an improved ability to predict the future contributions of glaciers to sea level by combining work from four research areas: remote sensing observations of calving activity and iceberg flux, numerical modeling of glacier dynamics, theoretical analysis of the calving process, and numerical techniques for modeling flow with large deformations and fracture. These four areas have never been combined into a single research effort on this subject; in particular, calving dynamics have never before been included explicitly in a model of glacier dynamics. A crucial issue that they proposed to address was the general question of how calving dynamics and glacier flow dynamics interact.

  4. The Greenlandic sea areas and activity level up to 2025

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jakobsen, Uffe; í Dali, Birita

    2016-01-01

    . It includes an overview of types of vessels and other objects involved in different activities, and the volume of traffic connected to different types of activities, such as fisheries, petroleum, tourism, navy and research. Furthermore, this report estimates the maritime activity level in the area the next...... ten years, or until 2025, and the potential development of the regional preparedness system. The data within this report is derived both from secondary and primary sources. The analysis of the current maritime activity is based on published analytical reports on maritime activity, facts and statistics......, petroleum activity, tourism and research/government activity. The last chapter is devoted to summarizing findings about the current developed activity level in the High North sea and coastal regions and the estimated activity level up to 2025. Possible implications for the preparedness system in the High...

  5. The Future of GLOSS Sea Level Data Archaeology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jevrejeva, S.; Bradshaw, E.; Tamisiea, M. E.; Aarup, T.

    2014-12-01

    Long term climate records are rare, consisting of unique and unrepeatable measurements. However, data do exist in analogue form in archives, libraries and other repositories around the world. The Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS) Group of Experts aims to provide advice on locating hidden tide gauge data, scanning and digitising records and quality controlling the resulting data. Long sea level data time series are used in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports and climate studies, in oceanography to study changes in ocean currents, tides and storm surges, in geodesy to establish national datum and in geography and geology to monitor coastal land movement. GLOSS has carried out a number of data archaeology activities over the past decade, which have mainly involved sending member organisations questionnaires on their repositories. The Group of Experts is now looking at future developments in sea level data archaeology and how new technologies coming on line could be used by member organisations to make data digitisation and transcription more efficient. Analogue tide data comes in two forms charts, which record the continuous measurements made by an instrument, usually via a pen trace on paper ledgers containing written values of observations The GLOSS data archaeology web pages will provide a list of software that member organisations have reported to be suitable for the automatic digitisation of tide gauge charts. Transcribing of ledgers has so far proved more labour intensive and is usually conducted by people entering numbers by hand. GLOSS is exploring using Citizen Science techniques, such as those employed by the Old Weather project, to improve the efficiency of transcribing ledgers. The Group of Experts is also looking at recent advances in Handwritten Text Recognition (HTR) technology, which mainly relies on patterns in the written word, but could be adapted to work with the patterns inherent in sea level data.

  6. A study of long-term sea level variability in the East China Sea

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU Ying; LIN Mingsen; ZHENG Quanan; YE Xiaomin; LI Junyi; ZHU Benlu

    2015-01-01

    From the analyses of the satellite altimeter Maps of Sea Level Anomaly (MSLA) data, tidal gauge sea level data and historical sea level data, this paper investigates the long-term sea level variability in the East China Sea (ECS). Based on the correlation analysis, we calculate the correlation coefficient between tidal gauge and the closest MSLA grid point, then generate the map of correlation coefficient of the entire ECS. The results show that the satellite altimeter MSLA data is effective to observe coastal sea level variability. An important finding is that from map of correlation coefficient we can identify the Kuroshio. The existence of Kuroshio decreases the correlation between coastal and the Pacific sea level. Kurishio likes a barrier or a wall, which blocks the effect of the Pacific and the global change. Moreover, coastal sea level in the ECS is mainly associated with local systems rather than global change. In order to calculate the long-term sea level variability trend, the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method is applied to derive the trend on each MSLA grid point in the entire ECS. According to the 2-D distribution of the trend and rising rate, the sea level on the right side of the axis of Kuroshio rise faster than in its left side. This result supports the barrier effect of Kuroshio in the ECS. For the entire ECS, the average sea level rose 45.0 mm between 1993 and 2010, with a rising rate of (2.5±0.4) mm/a which is slower than global average. The relatively slower sea level rising rate further proves that sea level rise in the ECS has less response to global change due to its own local system effect.

  7. Summer Monsoon and Annual Variability of Sea Surface Slope and Their Effects on Alongshore Current near Qingdao

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    蒲书箴; 程军; 张义钧; 石强; 骆敬新; 范文静

    2004-01-01

    Based on the monthly mean sea level data obtained from 3 years′ (1999-2001) tide-gauge measurements, the annual variability of the sea level near Qingdao and Jiaozhou Bay is studied and discussed in this paper. Results show that the sea surface height at all the tide gauges becomes higher in summer than that in winter,with an obvious seasonal variability.Furthermore the sea surface height measured at a short distance outside the bay is lower than that in thebay, showing a sea surface slope downward from north to south. The reasons for the formation of the slope are explained as well, The dynamic action ofthe summer monsoon and the sea surface slope, and their effects on the monthly mean current are studied by means of dynamics principles. The importance of the summer monsoon and the pressure gradient generated by the sea surface slope, with their effects on the alongshore current, is pointed out and emphasized in this paper.

  8. Sensitivity of Red Sea circulation to sea level and insolation forcing during the last interglacial

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trommer, G.; Siccha, M.; Rohling, E.J.; Grant, K.; van der Meer, M.T.J.; Schouten, S.; Baranowski, U.; Kucera, M.

    2011-01-01

    This study investigates the response of Red Sea circulation to sea level and insolation changes during termination II and across the last interglacial, in comparison with termination I and the Holocene. Sediment cores from the central and northern part of the Red Sea were investigated by

  9. A study of sea level variability and its long-term trend in the South China Sea

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU Ying; LIN Mingsen; ZHENG Quanan; SONG Qingtao; YE Xiaomin

    2016-01-01

    On the basis of the satellite maps of sea level anomaly (MSLA) data andin situ tidal gauge sea level data, correlation analysis and empirical mode decomposition (EMD) are employed to investigate the applicability of MSLA data, sea level correlation, long-term sea level variability (SLV) trend, sea level rise (SLR) rate and its geographic distribution in the South China Sea (SCS). The findings show that for Dongfang Station, Haikou Station, Shanwei Station and Zhapo Station, the minimum correlation coefficient between the closest MSLA grid point and tidal station is 0.61. This suggests that the satellite altimeter MSLA data are effective to observe the coastal SLV in the SCS. On the monthly scale, coastal SLV in the western and northern part of SCS are highly associated with coastal currents. On the seasonal scale, SLV of the coastal area in the western part of the SCS is still strongly influenced by the coastal current system in summer and winter. The Pacific change can affect the SCS mainly in winter rather than summer and the affected area mostly concentrated in the northeastern and eastern parts of the SCS. Overall, the average SLR in the SCS is 90.8 mm with a rising rate of (5.0±0.4) mm/a during 1993–2010. The SLR rate from the southern Luzon Strait through the Huangyan Seamount area to the Xisha Islands area is higher than that of other areas of the SCS.

  10. The social values at risk from sea-level rise

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Graham, Sonia, E-mail: sonia.graham@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia); Barnett, Jon, E-mail: jbarn@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia); Fincher, Ruth, E-mail: r.fincher@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia); Hurlimann, Anna, E-mail: anna.hurlimann@unimelb.edu.au [Faculty of Architecture, Building and Planning, The University of Melbourne, Architecture and Planning Building, Parkville, Victoria 3010 (Australia); Mortreux, Colette, E-mail: colettem@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia); Waters, Elissa, E-mail: elissa.waters@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia)

    2013-07-15

    Analysis of the risks of sea-level rise favours conventionally measured metrics such as the area of land that may be subsumed, the numbers of properties at risk, and the capital values of assets at risk. Despite this, it is clear that there exist many less material but no less important values at risk from sea-level rise. This paper re-theorises these multifarious social values at risk from sea-level rise, by explaining their diverse nature, and grounding them in the everyday practices of people living in coastal places. It is informed by a review and analysis of research on social values from within the fields of social impact assessment, human geography, psychology, decision analysis, and climate change adaptation. From this we propose that it is the ‘lived values’ of coastal places that are most at risk from sea-level rise. We then offer a framework that groups these lived values into five types: those that are physiological in nature, and those that relate to issues of security, belonging, esteem, and self-actualisation. This framework of lived values at risk from sea-level rise can guide empirical research investigating the social impacts of sea-level rise, as well as the impacts of actions to adapt to sea-level rise. It also offers a basis for identifying the distribution of related social outcomes across populations exposed to sea-level rise or sea-level rise policies.

  11. The Adriatic Sea: A Long-Standing Laboratory for Sea Level Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilibić, Ivica; Šepić, Jadranka; Pasarić, Mira; Orlić, Mirko

    2017-07-01

    The paper provides a comprehensive review of all aspects of Adriatic Sea level research covered by the literature. It discusses changes occurring over millennial timescales and documented by a variety of natural and man-made proxies and post-glacial rebound models; mean sea level changes occurring over centennial to annual timescales and measured by modern instruments; and daily and higher-frequency changes (with periods ranging from minutes to a day) that are contributing to sea level extremes and are relevant for present-day flooding of coastal areas. Special tribute is paid to the historic sea level studies that shaped modern sea level research in the Adriatic, followed by a discussion of existing in situ and remote sensing observing systems operating in the Adriatic area, operational forecasting systems for Adriatic storm surges, as well as warning systems for tsunamis and meteotsunamis. Projections and predictions of sea level and related hazards are also included in the review. Based on this review, open issues and research gaps in the Adriatic Sea level studies are identified, as well as the additional research efforts needed to fill the gaps. The Adriatic Sea, thus, remains a laboratory for coastal sea level studies for semi-enclosed, coastal and marginal seas in the world ocean.

  12. Three-dimensional calculations of the currents in the Huanghai Sea and East China Sea during June of 1999

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Huiqun Wang; Yaochu Yuan; Yonggang Liu; Mingyu Zhou

    2003-01-01

    Based on the wind and hydrographic data obtained by R/V Xiangyanghong 14 duringJune of 1999, the currents in the Huanghai Sea and East China Sea are computed by the three dimen-sional non-linear diagnostic, semidiagnostic models and prognostic in the σ coordinate. The computed re-sults show that the density and velocity fields and so on have been adjusted when time is about 3 days,namely the solution of semidiagnostic calculation is obtained. In the northwest part of the computed re-gion, the Huanghai coastal current flows southeastward, and then it flows out the computed region southof Cheju Island. In the west side of the southern part of the computed region, there is other current,which is mainly inshore branch of Taiwan Warm Current, and it flows cyclonically and turns to thenortheast. In the region north of the above two currents, there is a cyclonic eddy southwest of Cheju Is-land, and it has characteristics of high density and low temperature. There is an offshore branch of Tai-wan Warm Current in the west side of the Kuroshio, and it makes a cyclonic meander, then flows north-eastward. The Kuroshio in the East China Sea is stronger, and flows northeastward. Its maximum hori-zontal velocity is 108.5 cm/s at the sea surface, which is located at the northern boundary, and it is106.1 cm/s at 30 m level, 102.2 cm/s at 75 m level and 85.1 cm/s at 200 m level, respectively, whichare all located at the southern boundary. Comparing the results of diagnostic calculation with those ofsemidiagnostic and prognostic calculations indicates that the horizontal velocity field agrees qualitatively,and there is a little difference between them in quantity. The comparison between the computed veloci-ties and the obeered velocities at the mooring station show that they agree each other.

  13. PERSPECTIVE: The tripping points of sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hecht, Alan D.

    2009-12-01

    When President Nixon created the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in 1970 he said the environment must be perceived as a single, interrelated system. We are nowhere close to achieving this vision. Jim Titus and his colleagues [1] highlight one example of where one set of regulations or permits may be in conflict with another and where regulations were crafted in the absence of understanding the cumulative impact of global warming. The issue here is how to deal with the impacts of climate change on sea level and the latter's impact on wetland polices, clean water regulations, and ecosystem services. The Titus paper could also be called `The tripping points of sea level rise'. Titus and his colleagues have looked at the impact of such sea level rise on the east coast of the United States. Adaptive responses include costly large- scale investment in shore protection (e.g. dikes, sand replenishment) and/or ecosystem migration (retreat), where coastal ecosystems move inland. Shore protection is limited by available funds, while ecosystem migrations are limited by available land use. The driving factor is the high probability of sea level rise due to climate change. Estimating sea level rise is difficult because of local land and coastal dynamics including rising or falling land areas. It is estimated that sea level could rise between 8 inches and 2 feet by the end of this century [2]. The extensive data analysis done by Titus et al of current land use is important because, as they observe, `property owners and land use agencies have generally not decided how they will respond to sea level rise, nor have they prepared maps delineating where shore protection and retreat are likely'. This is the first of two `tripping points', namely the need for adaptive planning for a pending environmental challenge that will create economic and environment conflict among land owners, federal and state agencies, and businesses. One way to address this gap in adaptive management

  14. Sea level and turbidity controls on mangrove soil surface elevation change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lovelock, Catherine E.; Adame, Maria Fernanda; Bennion, Vicki; Hayes, Matthew; Reef, Ruth; Santini, Nadia; Cahoon, Donald R.

    2015-02-01

    Increases in sea level are a threat to seaward fringing mangrove forests if levels of inundation exceed the physiological tolerance of the trees; however, tidal wetlands can keep pace with sea level rise if soil surface elevations can increase at the same pace as sea level rise. Sediment accretion on the soil surface and belowground production of roots are proposed to increase with increasing sea level, enabling intertidal habitats to maintain their position relative to mean sea level, but there are few tests of these predictions in mangrove forests. Here we used variation in sea level and the availability of sediments caused by seasonal and inter-annual variation in the intensity of La Nina-El Nino to assess the effects of increasing sea level on surface elevation gains and contributing processes (accretion on the surface, subsidence and root growth) in mangrove forests. We found that soil surface elevation increased with mean sea level (which varied over 250 mm during the study) and with turbidity at sites where fine sediment in the water column is abundant. In contrast, where sediments were sandy, rates of surface elevation gain were high, but not significantly related to variation in turbidity, and were likely to be influenced by other factors that deliver sand to the mangrove forest. Root growth was not linked to soil surface elevation gains, although it was associated with reduced shallow subsidence, and therefore may contribute to the capacity of mangroves to keep pace with sea level rise. Our results indicate both surface (sedimentation) and subsurface (root growth) processes can influence mangrove capacity to keep pace with sea level rise within the same geographic location, and that current models of tidal marsh responses to sea level rise capture the major feature of the response of mangroves where fine, but not coarse, sediments are abundant.

  15. The Interannual and Decadal Variability of the Sea Level in the Japan/East Sea

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Tianshun; LIU Yuguang; ZONG Haibo; RONG Zengrui

    2009-01-01

    Sea level observed by altimeter during the 1993-2007 period and the thermosteric sea level from 1945 through 2005 obtained by using the global ocean temperature data sets recently published are used to investigate the interannual and decadal variability of the sea level in the Japan/East Sea (JES) and its response to El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Both the interannual variations of the sea level observed by altimeter and those of the thermosteric sea level obtained from reanalyzed data in the JES are closely related to ENSO. As a result, one important consequence is that the sea level trends are mainly caused by the thermal expansion in the JES. An 'enigma' is revealed that the correlation between the thermosteric sea level and ENSO during the PDO (Pacific Deeadal Oscillation) warm phase (post mid-1970s) is inconsistent with that during the cold phase (pre mid-1970s) in the JES. The thermosteric sea level trends and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) suggest a strong negative correlation during the period 1977 1998, whereas there appears a relatively weak positive correlation during the period 1945-1976 in the JES. Based on the SODA (Simple Oceanographic Data Assimilation) datasets, possible mechanisms of the interannual and deeadai variability of the sea level in the JES are discussed. Comprehensive analysis reveals that the negative anomalies of SOl correspond to the positive anomalies of the southeast wind stress, the net advective heat flux and the sea level in the JES during the PDO warm phase. During the PDO cold phase, the negative anomalies of SOl correspond to the positive anomalies of the southwest wind stress, the negative anomalies of the net advective heat flux and the sea level in the JES.

  16. Inception of a global atlas of Holocene sea levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Nicole; Rovere, Alessio; Engelhart, Simon; Horton, Benjamin

    2017-04-01

    Determining the rates, mechanisms and geographic variability of sea-level change is a priority science question for the next decade of ocean research. To address these research priorities, the HOLocene SEA-level variability (HOLSEA) working group is developing the first standardized global synthesis of Holocene relative sea-level data to: (1) estimate the magnitudes and rates of global mean sea-level change during the Holocene; and (2) identify trends in spatial variability and decipher the processes responsible for geographic differences in relative sea-level change. Here we present the preliminary efforts of the working group to compile the database, which includes sea-level index points and limiting data from a range of different indicators across seven continents from the Last Glacial Maximum to present. We follow a standard protocol that incorporates full consideration of vertical and temporal uncertainty for each sea-level index point, including uncertainties associated with the relationship of each indicator to past sea-level and the methods used to date each indicator. We describe the composition of the global database, identify gaps in data availability, and highlight our effort to create an online platform to access the data. These data will be made available in a special issue of Quaternary Science Reviews and archived on NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) in early 2018. We also invite researchers who collect or model Holocene sea-level data to participate. Long-term, this effort will enhance predictions of 21st century sea-level rise, and provide a vital contribution to the assessment of natural hazards with respect to sea-level rise and coastal response.

  17. Wave transformation across coral reefs under changing sea levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Daniel; Power, Hannah; Vila-Conejo, Ana; Webster, Jody

    2015-04-01

    The transformation of swell waves from deep water across reef flats is the primary process regulating energy regimes in coral reef systems. Coral reefs are effective barriers removing up to 99% of wave energy during breaking and propagation across reef flats. Consequently back-reef environments are often considered low energy with only limited sediment transport and geomorphic change during modal conditions. Coral reefs, and specifically reef flats, therefore provide important protection to tropical coastlines from coastal erosion and recession. However, changes in sea level could lead to significant changes in the dissipation of swell wave energy in coral reef systems with wave heights dependent on the depth over the reef flat. This suggests that a rise in sea level would also lead to significantly higher energy conditions exacerbating the transgressive effects of sea level rise on tropical beaches and reef islands. This study examines the potential implications of different sea level scenarios on the transformation of waves across the windward reef flats of One Tree Reef, southern Great Barrier Reef. Waves were measured on the reef flats and back-reef sand apron of One Tree Reef. A one-dimensional wave model was calibrated and used to investigate wave processes on the reef flats under different mean sea level (MSL) scenarios (present MSL, +1 m MSL, and +2 m MSL). These scenarios represent both potential future sea level states and also the paleo sea level of the late Holocene in the southern Great Barrier Reef. Wave heights were shown to increase under sea level rise, with greater wave induced orbital velocities affecting the bed under higher sea levels. In general waves were more likely to entrain and transport sediment both on the reef flat and in the back reef environment under higher sea levels which has implications for not only forecasted climate change scenarios but also for interpreting geological changes during the late Holocene when sea levels were 1

  18. The Paris Agreement's imprint on 2300 sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mengel, Matthias; Nauels, Alexander; Rogelj, Joeri; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich

    2017-04-01

    The 2015 Paris Agreement aims at reducing climate-related risks by putting a limit to global mean temperature increase. Furthermore, global greenhouse gas emissions should peak as soon as possible and reach net-zero in the second half of the 21st century under the agreement. Sea level rise is one of the major impacts of climate change and will continue for long after emissions have ceased. Here we quantify the effect of near-term and long-term emissions constraints of the Paris Agreement on climate-driven sea level rise until 2300 using a contribution-based methodology that is consistent with the IPCC AR5 sea level estimates. We study median sea level rise for scenarios stabilizing global mean temperatures between 1.5° C and 2° C above pre-industrial levels and net-zero greenhouse gas emission scenarios that lead to declining temperatures. Once global mean temperatures pass 1.5 °C, sea level rise below one meter until 2300 is out of reach for temperature stabilization scenarios. Net-zero emissions can reduce sea level rise caused by temperature overshoot only within limits. By linking sea level rise to near-term mitigation action, we find that delayed near-term mitigation action leads to increased sea level rise far beyond 2100.

  19. A scaling approach to project regional sea level rise and its uncertainties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Perrette

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change causes global mean sea level to rise due to thermal expansion of seawater and loss of land ice from mountain glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets. Locally, sea level can strongly deviate from the global mean rise due to changes in wind and ocean currents. In addition, gravitational adjustments redistribute seawater away from shrinking ice masses. However, the land ice contribution to sea level rise (SLR remains very challenging to model, and comprehensive regional sea level projections, which include appropriate gravitational adjustments, are still a nascent field (Katsman et al., 2011; Slangen et al., 2011. Here, we present an alternative approach to derive regional sea level changes for a range of emission and land ice melt scenarios, combining probabilistic forecasts of a simple climate model (MAGICC6 with the new CMIP5 general circulation models. The contribution from ice sheets varies considerably depending on the assumptions for the ice sheet projections, and thus represents sizeable uncertainties for future sea level rise. However, several consistent and robust patterns emerge from our analysis: at low latitudes, especially in the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific, sea level will likely rise more than the global mean (mostly by 10–20%. Around the northeastern Atlantic and the northeastern Pacific coasts, sea level will rise less than the global average or, in some rare cases, even fall. In the northwestern Atlantic, along the American coast, a strong dynamic sea level rise is counteracted by gravitational depression due to Greenland ice melt; whether sea level will be above- or below-average will depend on the relative contribution of these two factors. Our regional sea level projections and the diagnosed uncertainties provide an improved basis for coastal impact analysis and infrastructure planning for adaptation to climate change.

  20. Sea-level Rise Impacts on Hudson River Marshes and their Vegetation Zonation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hooks, A.; Nitsche, F. O.

    2016-12-01

    Rising sea levels may cause tidal marshes to be vulnerable to submergence and affect their ability to perform ecosystem services. However, tidal marshes are dynamic ecosystems that can adapt to sea-level rise through inland migration and vertical growth. This study examines how four tidal marshes on the Hudson River (Piermont Marsh, Iona Island Marsh, Tivoli Bays, and Stockport Flats) would be affected by 0.5m, 1m, and 1.5m of sea-level rise by 2100. Using high-resolution LiDAR elevation data and vegetation data, we mapped sea-level rise projections in GIS, accounting for current accretion rates unique to each marsh. We calculated the submerged area of each marsh and analyzed how vegetation zonation in each marsh is expected to change due to rising sea levels. We found that the steep topography of the Hudson River banks limits the marshes' ability to migrate inland, emphasizing the role of elevation-building processes in adaptation. The marshes studied would experience minimal to no inundation under lower rates of sea-level rise such as 0.5m by 2100. At higher projected rates of sea-level rise (1.5m by 2100), Piermont Marsh and Tivoli Bays would experience significant inundation while Iona Island marsh and Stockport Flats would be less affected. Overall, Stockport Flats is projected to be the marsh most resilient to sea-level rise due to its higher accretion rate and its topography. Rising sea levels are also expected to change the areas of vegetation zones, with upland, high marsh, and mid marsh zones generally declining in area and with subtidal and low marsh vegetation zones generally expanding under high rates of sea-level rise. Understanding the impacts of sea-level rise on Hudson River marshes enables long-term planning to adapt to potential changes in marsh ecosystem services and could motivate and inform conservation efforts.

  1. Estuaries May Face Increased Parasitism as Sea Levels Rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wendel, JoAnna

    2014-12-01

    Invertebrates in estuaries could be at a greater risk of parasitism as climate change causes sea levels to rise. A new paper published 8 December in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (doi:10.1073/pnas.1416747111) describes how rapid sea level rise in the Holocene affected the population of parasitic flatworms called trematodes.

  2. Potentiality of foraminifera in deciphering paleo-sea levels

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Nigam, R.

    -bearing sediment layer in Goa and Lothal Dockyard at the head of the Gulf of Khambhat (Cambay) are discussed as case-studies of sea level rise. The results indicate the possibility of higher sea level between 4,300 and 6,000 years BP. Similarly, bottom sediments...

  3. Arctic Sea Level During the Satellite Altimetry Era

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carret, A.; Johannessen, J. A.; Andersen, O. B.; Ablain, M.; Prandi, P.; Blazquez, A.; Cazenave, A.

    2017-01-01

    Results of the sea-level budget in the high latitudes (up to 80°N) and the Arctic Ocean during the satellite altimetry era. We investigate the closure of the sea-level budget since 2002 using two altimetry sea-level datasets based on the Envisat waveform retracking: temperature and salinity data from the ORAP5 reanalysis, and Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) space gravimetry data to estimate the steric and mass components. Regional sea-level trends seen in the altimetry map, in particular over the Beaufort Gyre and along the eastern coast of Greenland, are of halosteric origin. However, in terms of regional average over the region ranging from 66°N to 80°N, the steric component contributes little to the observed sea-level trend, suggesting a dominant mass contribution in the Arctic region. This is confirmed by GRACE-based ocean mass time series that agree well with the altimetry-based sea-level time series. Direct estimate of the mass component is not possible prior to GRACE. Thus, we estimated the mass contribution from the difference between the altimetry-based sea level and the steric component. We also investigate the coastal sea level with tide gauge records. Twenty coupled climate models from the CMIP5 project are also used. The models lead us to the same conclusions concerning the halosteric origin of the trend patterns.

  4. Sea-level-rise impacts: Questioning inevitable migration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kniveton, Dominic

    2017-08-01

    It is assumed that sea-level rise due to climate change will be so severe that those living near sea level will be forced to relocate. However, new research around a series of islands that have suffered subsidence due to a recent earthquake suggests that instead, island residents remain and use a range of strategies to adapt to regular flooding.

  5. Does Sea Level Change when a Floating Iceberg Melts?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lan, Boon Leong

    2010-01-01

    On the answer page to a recent "Figuring Physics" question, the cute mouse asks another question: "Does the [sea] water level change if the iceberg melts?" The conventional answer is "no." However, in this paper I will show through a simple analysis involving Archimedes' principle that the sea level will rise. The analysis shows the wrong…

  6. Does Sea Level Change when a Floating Iceberg Melts?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lan, Boon Leong

    2010-01-01

    On the answer page to a recent "Figuring Physics" question, the cute mouse asks another question: "Does the [sea] water level change if the iceberg melts?" The conventional answer is "no." However, in this paper I will show through a simple analysis involving Archimedes' principle that the sea level will rise. The analysis shows the wrong…

  7. Projecting twenty-first century regional sea-level changes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slangen, A.B.A.; Carson, M.; Katsman, C.A.; van de Wal, R.S.W.; Köhl, A.; Vermeersen, L.L.A.; Stammer, D.

    2014-01-01

    We present regional sea-level projections and associated uncertainty estimates for the end of the 21 (st) century. We show regional projections of sea-level change resulting from changing ocean circulation, increased heat uptake and atmospheric pressure in CMIP5 climate models. These are combined wi

  8. Projecting twenty-first century regional sea-level changes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slangen, A. B A; Carson, M.; Katsman, C. A.; van de Wal, R. S W; Köhl, A.; Vermeersen, L. L A; Stammer, D.

    2014-01-01

    We present regional sea-level projections and associated uncertainty estimates for the end of the 21st century. We show regional projections of sea-level change resulting from changing ocean circulation, increased heat uptake and atmospheric pressure in CMIP5 climate models. These are combined with

  9. Arctic Sea Level During the Satellite Altimetry Era

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carret, A.; Johannessen, J. A.; Andersen, O. B.; Ablain, M.; Prandi, P.; Blazquez, A.; Cazenave, A.

    2016-11-01

    Results of the sea-level budget in the high latitudes (up to 80°N) and the Arctic Ocean during the satellite altimetry era. We investigate the closure of the sea-level budget since 2002 using two altimetry sea-level datasets based on the Envisat waveform retracking: temperature and salinity data from the ORAP5 reanalysis, and Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) space gravimetry data to estimate the steric and mass components. Regional sea-level trends seen in the altimetry map, in particular over the Beaufort Gyre and along the eastern coast of Greenland, are of halosteric origin. However, in terms of regional average over the region ranging from 66°N to 80°N, the steric component contributes little to the observed sea-level trend, suggesting a dominant mass contribution in the Arctic region. This is confirmed by GRACE-based ocean mass time series that agree well with the altimetry-based sea-level time series. Direct estimate of the mass component is not possible prior to GRACE. Thus, we estimated the mass contribution from the difference between the altimetry-based sea level and the steric component. We also investigate the coastal sea level with tide gauge records. Twenty coupled climate models from the CMIP5 project are also used. The models lead us to the same conclusions concerning the halosteric origin of the trend patterns.

  10. On the Wind Stress - Sea Level Power Law.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1983-06-01

    The response of coastal sea level to local forcing by synpotic scale winds is usually assumed to be linear in wind stress . However, the response of...response to wind stress may allow significant improvement in the analysis of some sea-level problems. (Author)

  11. Relative sea-level variability during the late Middle Pleistocene: New evidence from eastern England

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlow, N. L. M.; Long, A. J.; Gehrels, W. R.; Saher, M. H.; Scaife, R. G.; Davies, H. J.; Penkman, K. E. H.; Bridgland, D. R.; Sparkes, A.; Smart, C. W.; Taylor, S.

    2017-10-01

    Unravelling patterns of relative sea-level change during previous interglacials enhances our understanding of ice sheet response to changing climate. Temperate-latitude estuarine environments have the potential to preserve continuous records of relative sea level from previous interglacial (warm) periods. This is important because, currently, we typically only have snapshots of sea-level highstands from low-latitude corals and raised palaeoshoreline indicators while the (continuous) deep-sea oxygen isotope record only provides indirect evidence of sea-level changes. Here, we focus on the Nar Valley in eastern England, in which is preserved evidence of a late middle-Pleistocene marine transgression more than 20 vertical metres in extent. By applying a model of coastal succession and sea-level tendencies, as used in Holocene sea-level studies, we assess the mode (abrupt versus gradual) of sea-level change recorded by the interglacial Nar Valley sequences. Compiled palaeo-stratigraphic evidence comprising foraminifera, pollen and amino acid racemization dating, suggests that the mode of sea-level change in the Nar Valley interglacial sequence was gradual, with potentially two phases of regional transgression and relative sea-level rise occurring at two separate times. The first phase occurred during the latter part of marine Oxygen Isotope Stage (MIS) 11 from ∼8 to 18 m OD; and, the second phase potentially occurred during early MIS 9 from ∼-3 to 3 m OD (with long-term tectonic uplift included in these estimates). We cannot conclusively preclude an alternative MIS 11 age for these lower sediments. The lack of indicators for rapid sea-level oscillations in the Nar Valley adds weight to an argument for steady melt of the ice sheets during both MIS 11 and 9.

  12. Integrative study of the mean sea level and its components

    CERN Document Server

    Champollion, Nicolas; Paul, Frank; Benveniste, Jérôme

    2017-01-01

    This volume presents the most recent results of global mean sea level variations over the satellite altimetry era (starting in the early 1990s) and associated contributions, such as glaciers and ice sheets mass loss, ocean thermal expansion, and land water storage changes. Sea level is one of the best indicators of global climate changes as it integrates the response of several components of the climate system to external forcing factors (including anthropogenic forcing) and internal climate variability. Providing long, accurate records of the sea level at global and regional scales and of the various components causing sea level changes is of crucial importance to improve our understanding of climate processes at work and to validate the climate models used for future projections. The Climate Change Initiative project of the European Space Agency has provided a first attempt to produce consistent and continuous space-based records for several climate parameters observable from space, among them sea level. Th...

  13. Sea level rise projections for northern Europe under RCP8.5

    OpenAIRE

    Grinsted, A.; Jevrejeva, S.; R. E. M. Riva; D. Dahl-Jensen

    2015-01-01

    Sea level rise poses a significant threat to coastal communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Sea level rise is not uniform globally but is affected by a range of regional factors. In this study, we calculate regional projections of 21st century sea level rise in northern Europe, focusing on the British Isles, the Baltic Sea, and the North Sea. The input to the regional sea level projection is a probabilistic projection of the major components of the global sea level budget. Local sea lev...

  14. Dynamic sea level changes following changes in the thermohaline circulation

    OpenAIRE

    Levermann, Anders; Griesel, Alexa; Hofmann, Matthias; Montoya Redondo, María Luisa; Rahmstorf, Stefan

    2005-01-01

    Using the coupled climate model CLIMBER-3a, we investigate changes in sea surface elevation due to a weakening of the thermohaline circulation (THC). In addition to a global sea level rise due to a warming of the deep sea, this leads to a regional dynamic sea level change which follows quasi-instantaneously any change in the ocean circulation. We show that the magnitude of this dynamic effect can locally reach up to ~1m, depending on the initial THC strength. In some regions the rate of chang...

  15. Vulnerability of Turkish coasts to accelerated sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alpar, Bedri

    2009-06-01

    Accelerated rise in sea-level, and associated geological adjustment, may result in a high impact on shorelines. On the basis of hourly sea-level observations over a 20 year period, sea-level change along the Turkish coast has been investigated. In addition to relative sea-level rise, the high level of human activities in coastal areas puts a significant amount of stress on Turkish coastal zones, especially on coastal lowland plains. Coastal erosion and ground water salinization are the most important impacts and two case studies are discussed in this paper: the Kizilirmak river delta on the Black Sea; and the tourism center of Erdek on the Marmara Sea. Coastal retreat on the Kizilirmak river delta is mostly attributed to decreasing sediment supply to the coast. The shore barriers and the enclosed lagoons are likely to respond readily to future sea-level rise. At Erdek, the most important threat is intrusion of salt water into freshwater systems caused by a combination of accelerated sea-level rise, land reclamation and overexploitation of underground aquifers.

  16. Currents in the Dead Sea: Lagrangian and Eulerian observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozer, Tal; Gertman, Isaac; Katsenelson, Boris; Bodzin, Raanan; Lensly, Nadav

    2015-04-01

    The Dead Sea is a terminal hypersaline lake located in the lowest surface on Earth (currently -429 m bsl). The physical properties of the brine are significantly different than in common marine systems: the DS brine density is ~1.24 gr/cc and its viscosity ~3 times higher than marine systems. We present observational data on wind and currents in the Dead Sea. The observation setup includes a few fixed (Eulerian) stations which are equipped with wind meter and current meter profiler that covers the entire water column (ADCP). Thermal stratification is continuously measured in some of the stations using a thermistor chain. Lagrangian drifters that record the shallow water currents were released in liner array of single drifters between the fixed stations, and also in triplets (15 m triangle). The results include the measured time series data of wind (atmospheric forcing) and the measured current profiles from the fixed stations. Data of the Lagrangian drifters is presented as trajectories along with vector time series. Quality control check included comparison of drifter data and ADCP data whenever the drifters passed by the fixed stations; a very good agreement was found between the different measuring approaches. We discuss the following issues : (i) the relation between the wind and current data, (ii) the Lagrangian trajectories and transport aspects.

  17. Acceleration of Sea Level Rise Over Malaysian Seas from Satellite Altimeter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamid, A. I. A.; Din, A. H. M.; Khalid, N. F.; Omar, K. M.

    2016-09-01

    Sea level rise becomes our concern nowadays as a result of variously contribution of climate change that cause by the anthropogenic effects. Global sea levels have been rising through the past century and are projected to rise at an accelerated rate throughout the 21st century. Due to this change, sea level is now constantly rising and eventually will threaten many low-lying and unprotected coastal areas in many ways. This paper is proposing a significant effort to quantify the sea level trend over Malaysian seas based on the combination of multi-mission satellite altimeters over a period of 23 years. Eight altimeter missions are used to derive the absolute sea level from Radar Altimeter Database System (RADS). Data verification is then carried out to verify the satellite derived sea level rise data with tidal data. Eight selected tide gauge stations from Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah and Sarawak are chosen for this data verification. The pattern and correlation of both measurements of sea level anomalies (SLA) are evaluated over the same period in each area in order to produce comparable results. Afterwards, the time series of the sea level trend is quantified using robust fit regression analysis. The findings clearly show that the absolute sea level trend is rising and varying over the Malaysian seas with the rate of sea level varies and gradually increase from east to west of Malaysia. Highly confident and correlation level of the 23 years measurement data with an astonishing root mean square difference permits the absolute sea level trend of the Malaysian seas has raised at the rate 3.14 ± 0.12 mm yr-1 to 4.81 ± 0.15 mm yr-1 for the chosen sub-areas, with an overall mean of 4.09 ± 0.12 mm yr-1. This study hopefully offers a beneficial sea level information to be applied in a wide range of related environmental and climatology issue such as flood and global warming.

  18. ACCELERATION OF SEA LEVEL RISE OVER MALAYSIAN SEAS FROM SATELLITE ALTIMETER

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. I. A. Hamid

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Sea level rise becomes our concern nowadays as a result of variously contribution of climate change that cause by the anthropogenic effects. Global sea levels have been rising through the past century and are projected to rise at an accelerated rate throughout the 21st century. Due to this change, sea level is now constantly rising and eventually will threaten many low-lying and unprotected coastal areas in many ways. This paper is proposing a significant effort to quantify the sea level trend over Malaysian seas based on the combination of multi-mission satellite altimeters over a period of 23 years. Eight altimeter missions are used to derive the absolute sea level from Radar Altimeter Database System (RADS. Data verification is then carried out to verify the satellite derived sea level rise data with tidal data. Eight selected tide gauge stations from Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah and Sarawak are chosen for this data verification. The pattern and correlation of both measurements of sea level anomalies (SLA are evaluated over the same period in each area in order to produce comparable results. Afterwards, the time series of the sea level trend is quantified using robust fit regression analysis. The findings clearly show that the absolute sea level trend is rising and varying over the Malaysian seas with the rate of sea level varies and gradually increase from east to west of Malaysia. Highly confident and correlation level of the 23 years measurement data with an astonishing root mean square difference permits the absolute sea level trend of the Malaysian seas has raised at the rate 3.14 ± 0.12 mm yr-1 to 4.81 ± 0.15 mm yr-1 for the chosen sub-areas, with an overall mean of 4.09 ± 0.12 mm yr-1. This study hopefully offers a beneficial sea level information to be applied in a wide range of related environmental and climatology issue such as flood and global warming.

  19. Spatial Patterns of Sea Level Variability Associated with Natural Internal Climate Modes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Weiqing; Meehl, Gerald A.; Stammer, Detlef; Hu, Aixue; Hamlington, Benjamin; Kenigson, Jessica; Palanisamy, Hindumathi; Thompson, Philip

    2017-01-01

    Sea level rise (SLR) can exert significant stress on highly populated coastal societies and low-lying island countries around the world. Because of this, there is huge societal demand for improved decadal predictions and future projections of SLR, particularly on a local scale along coastlines. Regionally, sea level variations can deviate considerably from the global mean due to various geophysical processes. These include changes of ocean circulations, which partially can be attributed to natural, internal modes of variability in the complex Earth's climate system. Anthropogenic influence may also contribute to regional sea level variations. Separating the effects of natural climate modes and anthropogenic forcing, however, remains a challenge and requires identification of the imprint of specific climate modes in observed sea level change patterns. In this paper, we review our current state of knowledge about spatial patterns of sea level variability associated with natural climate modes on interannual-to-multidecadal timescales, with particular focus on decadal-to-multidecadal variability. Relevant climate modes and our current state of understanding their associated sea level patterns and driving mechanisms are elaborated separately for the Pacific, the Indian, the Atlantic, and the Arctic and Southern Oceans. We also discuss the issues, challenges and future outlooks for understanding the regional sea level patterns associated with climate modes. Effects of these internal modes have to be taken into account in order to achieve more reliable near-term predictions and future projections of regional SLR.

  20. Spatial Patterns of Sea Level Variability Associated with Natural Internal Climate Modes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Weiqing; Meehl, Gerald A.; Stammer, Detlef; Hu, Aixue; Hamlington, Benjamin; Kenigson, Jessica; Palanisamy, Hindumathi; Thompson, Philip

    2016-10-01

    Sea level rise (SLR) can exert significant stress on highly populated coastal societies and low-lying island countries around the world. Because of this, there is huge societal demand for improved decadal predictions and future projections of SLR, particularly on a local scale along coastlines. Regionally, sea level variations can deviate considerably from the global mean due to various geophysical processes. These include changes of ocean circulations, which partially can be attributed to natural, internal modes of variability in the complex Earth's climate system. Anthropogenic influence may also contribute to regional sea level variations. Separating the effects of natural climate modes and anthropogenic forcing, however, remains a challenge and requires identification of the imprint of specific climate modes in observed sea level change patterns. In this paper, we review our current state of knowledge about spatial patterns of sea level variability associated with natural climate modes on interannual-to-multidecadal timescales, with particular focus on decadal-to-multidecadal variability. Relevant climate modes and our current state of understanding their associated sea level patterns and driving mechanisms are elaborated separately for the Pacific, the Indian, the Atlantic, and the Arctic and Southern Oceans. We also discuss the issues, challenges and future outlooks for understanding the regional sea level patterns associated with climate modes. Effects of these internal modes have to be taken into account in order to achieve more reliable near-term predictions and future projections of regional SLR.

  1. Monitoring sea level and sea surface temperature trends from ERS satellites

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Knudsen, Per; Beckley, B.

    2002-01-01

    over this period. In the Indian Ocean and particularly the Pacific Ocean the trends in both sea level and temperature are still dominated by the large changes associated with the El Nino Southern Oscillation. In terms of contribution to the total global sea level change, the contribution of the central...

  2. Deep oceanic currents and sea floor interactions offshore SE Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raisson, François; Cazzola, Carlo; Ferry, Jean-Noel

    2016-04-01

    The Pamela Research program, which involves Total and Ifremer and their associated partners (French Universities, CNRS, IFPEN), is currently working to acquire new multidisciplinary data in the Mozambique Channel, in order to improve our knowledge and use this area as "laboratory" for comprehension of sedimentary/stratigraphical/geodynamical/structural and biological processes. The area comprised between the austral ocean and the southern tip of the African continent is a major place for Atlantic and Indian waters exchange, with high impact on the global climate (de Rujiter et al., 1999, Beal et al., 2011). Its prolongation toward the Mozambique Channel is a great playground to study effects of bottom currents on the sea floor. In this synthesis, we compile information about the major oceanic currents that occur at different water depth in the area, and we started listing the main published or ongoing studies, some of them in the scope of the Pamela project, related to sea floor interactions with bottom currents. These interactions are characterized by erosional features: submarine erosions, truncations, stratigraphic hiatuses, associated to depositional features: various types of contouritic drifts, sediment waves, asymmetric turbiditic levees etc. (Simpson et al., 1974, Uenzelmann-Neben et al., 2007, Uenzelmann-Neben & Huhn, 2009, Palermo et al., 2014). Movements of the main water masses in the Mozambique basin are strongly driven by thermohaline circulation but also sea floor topography and coast configuration: the Mozambique Current is not a persistent current but composed by southward moving anticyclonic eddies (De Rujiter et al., 2002, Ridderinkhof & de Rujiter, 2003, Swart et al., 2010, Halo et al., 2014). Deep currents flow northward along the western edge of the Mozambique basin: the North Atlantic Deep Waters (NADW) and the Antarctic Intermediate Waters (AAIW) flow along the Mozambican continental slope and form the Mozambique Undercurrent. A portion of

  3. Uprated OMS Engine Status-Sea Level Testing Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertolino, J. D.; Boyd, W. C.

    1990-01-01

    The current Space Shuttle Orbital Maneuvering Engine (OME) is pressure fed, utilizing storable propellants. Performance uprating of this engine, through the use of a gas generator driven turbopump to increase operating pressure, is being pursued by the NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC). Component level design, fabrication, and test activities for this engine system have been on-going since 1984. More recently, a complete engine designated the Integrated Component Test Bed (ICTB), was tested at sea level conditions by Aerojet. A description of the test hardware and results of the sea level test program are presented. These results, which include the test condition operating envelope and projected performance at altitude conditions, confirm the capability of the selected Uprated OME (UOME) configuration to meet or exceed performance and operational requirements. Engine flexibility, demonstrated through testing at two different operational mixture ratios, along with a summary of projected Space Shuttle performance enhancements using the UOME, are discussed. Planned future activities, including ICTB tests at simulated altitude conditions, and recommendations for further engine development, are also discussed.

  4. Effect of Sea Level Variation on Tidal Characteristic Values for the East China Sea

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    于宜法; 俞聿修; 左军成; 万振文; 陈宗镛

    2003-01-01

    Tidal waves in the East China Sea are simulated numerically with POM(Princeton Ocean Model) model for normal mean sea level, 30 cm higher, 60 cm higher, and 100 cm higher, respectively, and the simulated result is compared with the harmonic analysis result of hourly sea level data from 19 tide gauges for more than 19 years. It is indicated that the long-term mean sea level variation affects notably tidal waves in this region. Generally, the tidal amplitude increases when the mean sea level rises, but this relationship may be inverse for some sea areas. The maximal variation of tidal amplitude takes place in the zones near the Fujian coast and the Zhejiang coast, rather than the shallowest Bohai Sea. The maximum increase of M2 amplitude can exceed about 15 cm corresponding to the 60 cm rise of the mean sea level along the Fujian coast. The other regions with large variations of tidal amplitude are those along the Jiangsu coast, the south-east coast of Shandong, and the south-east coast of Dalian. The propagation of tidal waves is also related to mean sea level variation, and the tidal phase-lag decreases generally when the mean sea level rises. Almost all the regions where the tidal phase-lag increases with rising mean sea level are close to amphidromic points, meanwhile the spatial area of such regions is very small. Because the influence of mean sea level variation upon tidal waves is spatially marked, such spatial effect should be considered in calculation of the tidal characteristic value and engineering water level. In the region where the amplitudes of the major tidal constituents increase, the probable maximum high water level becomes higher, the probable maximum low water level becomes lower, and both design water level andcheck water level increase obviously. For example, the design water level at Xiamen increases by 13.5 cm due to the variation of tidal waves when the mean sea level rises 60 cm, the total increase of design water level being 73.5 cm.

  5. Sea-Level Rise Impacts on Hudson River Marshes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hooks, A.; Nitsche, F. O.

    2015-12-01

    The response of tidal marshes to increasing sea-level rise is uncertain. Tidal marshes can adapt to rising sea levels through vertical accretion and inland migration. Yet tidal marshes are vulnerable to submergence if the rate of sea-level rise exceeds the rate of accretion and if inland migration is limited by natural features or development. We studied how Piermont and Iona Island Marsh, two tidal marshes on the Hudson River, New York, would be affected by sea-level rise of 0.5m, 1m, and 1.5m by 2100. This study was based on the 2011-2012 Coastal New York LiDAR survey. Using GIS we mapped sea-level rise projections accounting for accretion rates and calculated the submerged area of the marsh. Based on the Hudson River National Estuarine Research Reserve Vegetation 2005 dataset, we studied how elevation zones based on vegetation distributions would change. To evaluate the potential for inland migration, we assessed land cover around each marsh using the National Land Cover Database 2011 Land Cover dataset and examined the slope beyond the marsh boundaries. With an accretion rate of 0.29cm/year and 0.5m of sea-level rise by 2100, Piermont Marsh would be mostly unchanged. With 1.5m of sea-level rise, 86% of Piermont Marsh would be flooded. For Iona Island Marsh with an accretion rate of 0.78cm/year, sea-level rise of 0.5m by 2100 would result in a 4% expansion while 1.5m sea-level rise would cause inundation of 17% of the marsh. The results indicate that Piermont and Iona Island Marsh may be able to survive rates of sea-level rise such as 0.5m by 2100 through vertical accretion. At rates of sea-level rise like 1.5m by 2100, vertical accretion cannot match sea-level rise, submerging parts of the marshes. High elevations and steep slopes limit Piermont and Iona Island Marsh's ability to migrate inland. Understanding the impacts of sea-level rise on Piermont and Iona Island Marsh allows for long-term planning and could motivate marsh conservation programs.

  6. Climate Variabilities of Sea Level around the Korean Peninsula

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yong-Hoon YOUN; Im Sang OH; Young-Hyang PARK; Ki-Hyun KIM

    2004-01-01

    In order to study the climate variabilities of the sea level around the Korean Peninsula, tidal data observed at local stations in Korea were compared against those obtained using TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P) altimetric sea level data. In the course of our study, the amount of sea level rise was estimated using the tidal data from 9 stations selected by an anomaly coherency analysis. The results indicated that the sea level has risen by 0.28 cm yr-1 around the Korean Peninsula over the past two decades. The extent of such a rise is about two times higher than that of the global increase (0.1-0.2 cm yr-1). However,because most global warming effects occurred mainly over mid- and high-latitudes, this level of change appears to be realistic. According to the spectral analysis (at a spectral window of k = 2, k is the number of subdivisions), the decadal band of sea level variability is computed at 30% of the energy. Its spectral peak is found at 12.8 years. In the interannual band, the predominant sea level variability is in the 1.4-1.9-year band, with a sharp peak at 1.6 years. A secondary peak, although marginal, has a period of 2.2years. Based on our estimates of sea level height from Topex/Poseidon, the quasi-biennial periodicity of 1.6 years is the representative interannual sea level variability in the seas adjacent to Korea. Trends vary greatly according to the geographical location, from a maximum of 1.0 cm yr-1 (the southern sector of the East Sea) to a minimum of 0.17 cm yr-1 (the northern sector of the East Sea). This is fairly consistent with the qualitative description already given with reference to the global map. As an analogue to the pattern seen in Korea, that of the Yellow Sea reveals practically the same trend as that of the adjacent seas (0.56 cm yr-1). However, in the case of TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P) data, there is no clear evidence of a linkage between the interannual sea level variability around the Korean Peninsula and ENSO.

  7. Simultaneous estimation of lithospheric uplift rates and absolute sea level change in southwest Scandinavia from inversion of sea level data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Lars; Hansen, Jens Morten; Hede, Mikkel Ulfeldt

    2014-01-01

    Scandinavia from modern relative sea level data series that cover the period from 1900 to 2000. In both approaches, a priori information is required to solve the inverse problem. A priori information about the average vertical lithospheric movement in the area of interest is critical for the quality......Relative sea level curves contain coupled information about absolute sea level change and vertical lithospheric movement. Such curves may be constructed based on, for example tide gauge data for the most recent times and different types of geological data for ancient times. Correct account...... the relative sea level data. Similar independent data do not exist for ancient times. The purpose of this study is to test two simple inversion approaches for simultaneous estimation of lithospheric uplift rates and absolute sea level change rates for ancient times in areas where a dense coverage of relative...

  8. Past and future changes in extreme sea levels and waves

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Lawe, J.A.; Woodworth, P.L.; Knutson, T.; McDonald, R.E.; Mclnnes, K.L.; Woth, K.; Von Storch, H.; Wolf, J.; Swail, V.; Bernier, N.B.; Gulev, S.; Horsburgh, K.J.; Unnikrishnan, A.S.; Hunter, J.R.; Weisse, R.

    stream_size 143507 stream_content_type text/plain stream_name Understanding_Sea_Level_rise_Variability_2010_Chapter_11_326.pdf.txt stream_source_info Understanding_Sea_Level_rise_Variability_2010_Chapter_11_326.pdf.txt Content.... This was compounded by the rate of local mean sea-level rise relative to the land level of the Mississippi Delta of several times the global average, as occurs naturally in all major deltas, together with anthropogenic changes to the delta wetlands. On much longer...

  9. Global mapping of nonseismic sea level oscillations at tsunami timescales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilibić, Ivica; Šepić, Jadranka

    2017-01-01

    Present investigations of sea level extremes are based on hourly data measured at coastal tide gauges. The use of hourly data restricts existing global and regional analyses to periods larger than 2 h. However, a number of processes occur at minute timescales, of which the most ruinous are tsunamis. Meteotsunamis, hazardous nonseismic waves that occur at tsunami timescales over limited regions, may also locally dominate sea level extremes. Here, we show that nonseismic sea level oscillations at tsunami timescales (sea level extremes, up to 50% in low-tidal basins. The intensity of these oscillations is zonally correlated with mid-tropospheric winds at the 99% significance level, with the variance doubling from the tropics and subtropics to the mid-latitudes. Specific atmospheric patterns are found during strong events at selected locations in the World Ocean, indicating a globally predominant generation mechanism. Our analysis suggests that these oscillations should be considered in sea level hazard assessment studies. Establishing a strong correlation between nonseismic sea level oscillations at tsunami timescales and atmospheric synoptic patterns would allow for forecasting of nonseismic sea level oscillations for operational use, as well as hindcasting and projection of their effects under past, present and future climates.

  10. Improving sea level simulation in Mediterranean regional climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adloff, Fanny; Jordà, Gabriel; Somot, Samuel; Sevault, Florence; Arsouze, Thomas; Meyssignac, Benoit; Li, Laurent; Planton, Serge

    2017-08-01

    For now, the question about future sea level change in the Mediterranean remains a challenge. Previous climate modelling attempts to estimate future sea level change in the Mediterranean did not meet a consensus. The low resolution of CMIP-type models prevents an accurate representation of important small scales processes acting over the Mediterranean region. For this reason among others, the use of high resolution regional ocean modelling has been recommended in literature to address the question of ongoing and future Mediterranean sea level change in response to climate change or greenhouse gases emissions. Also, it has been shown that east Atlantic sea level variability is the dominant driver of the Mediterranean variability at interannual and interdecadal scales. However, up to now, long-term regional simulations of the Mediterranean Sea do not integrate the full sea level information from the Atlantic, which is a substantial shortcoming when analysing Mediterranean sea level response. In the present study we analyse different approaches followed by state-of-the-art regional climate models to simulate Mediterranean sea level variability. Additionally we present a new simulation which incorporates improved information of Atlantic sea level forcing at the lateral boundary. We evaluate the skills of the different simulations in the frame of long-term hindcast simulations spanning from 1980 to 2012 analysing sea level variability from seasonal to multidecadal scales. Results from the new simulation show a substantial improvement in the modelled Mediterranean sea level signal. This confirms that Mediterranean mean sea level is strongly influenced by the Atlantic conditions, and thus suggests that the quality of the information in the lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) is crucial for the good modelling of Mediterranean sea level. We also found that the regional differences inside the basin, that are induced by circulation changes, are model-dependent and thus not

  11. Sea level rise with warming above 2 degree

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Jackson, Luke; Riva, Riccardo; Grinsted, Aslak; Moore, John

    2017-04-01

    Holding the increase in the global average temperature to below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C, has been agreed by the representatives of the 196 parties of United Nations, as an appropriate threshold beyond which climate change risks become unacceptably high. Sea level rise is one of the most damaging aspects of warming climate for the more than 600 million people living in low-elevation coastal areas less than 10 meters above sea level. Fragile coastal ecosystems and increasing concentrations of population and economic activity in coastal areas, are reasons why future sea level rise is one of the most damaging aspects of the warming climate. Furthermore, sea level is set to continue to rise for centuries after greenhouse gas emissions concentrations are stabilised due to system inertia and feedback time scales. Impact, risk, adaptation policies and long-term decision making in coastal areas depend on regional and local sea level rise projections and local projections can differ substantially from the global one. Here we provide probabilistic sea level rise projections for the global coastline with warming above the 2 degree goal. A warming of 2°C makes global ocean rise on average by 20 cm, but more than 90% of coastal areas will experience greater rises, 40 cm along the Atlantic coast of North America and Norway, due to ocean dynamics. If warming continues above 2°C, then by 2100 sea level will rise with speeds unprecedented throughout human civilization, reaching 0.9 m (median), and 80% of the global coastline will exceed the global ocean sea level rise upper 95% confidence limit of 1.8 m. Coastal communities of rapidly expanding cities in the developing world, small island states, and vulnerable tropical coastal ecosystems will have a very limited time after mid-century to adapt to sea level rises.

  12. Upper Limit for Sea Level Projections by 2100

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Grinsted, Aslak; Moore, John

    2015-04-01

    With more than 150 million people living within 1 m of high tide future sea level rise is one of the most damaging aspects of warming climate. The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report (AR5 IPCC) noted that a 0.5 m rise in mean sea level will result in a dramatic increase the frequency of high water extremes - by an order of magnitude, or more in some regions. Thus the flood threat to the rapidly growing urban populations and associated infrastructure in coastal areas are major concerns for society. Hence, impact assessment, risk management, adaptation strategy and long-term decision making in coastal areas depend on projections of mean sea level and crucially its low probability, high impact, upper range. We construct the probability density function of global sea level at 2100, estimating that sea level rises larger than 180 cm are less than 5% probable. An upper limit for global sea level rise of 190 cm is assembled by summing the highest estimates of individual sea level rise components simulated by process based models with the RCP8.5 scenario. The agreement between the methods may suggest more confidence than is warranted since large uncertainties remain due to the lack of scenario-dependent projections from ice sheet dynamical models, particularly for mass loss from marine-based fast flowing outlet glaciers in Antarctica.

  13. Sea level change: lessons from the geologic record

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,

    1995-01-01

    Rising sea level is potentially one of the most serious impacts of climatic change. Even a small sea level rise would have serious economic consequences because it would cause extensive damage to the world's coastal regions. Sea level can rise in the future because the ocean surface can expand due to warming and because polar ice sheets and mountain glaciers can melt, increasing the ocean's volume of water. Today, ice caps on Antarctica and Greenland contain 91 and 8 percent of the world's ice, respectively. The world's mountain glaciers together contain only about 1 percent. Melting all this ice would raise sea level about 80 meters. Although this extreme scenario is not expected, geologists know that sea level can rise and fall rapidly due to changing volume of ice on continents. For example, during the last ice age, about 18,000 years ago, continental ice sheets contained more than double the modem volume of ice. As ice sheets melted, sea level rose 2 to 3 meters per century, and possibly faster during certain times. During periods in which global climate was very warm, polar ice was reduced and sea level was higher than today.

  14. Upper layer current variability in the Central Ligurian Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Picco

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Long-time series of surface currents and meteorological parameters were analysed to estimate the variability of the upper layer circulation as a preliminary study of the Ligurian Air-Sea Interaction Experiment (LASIE07. Current meter data were collected by an upward-looking RDI Sentinel 300 kHz ADCP deployed in the Central Ligurian Sea (43°47.77' N; 9°02.85' E near the meteo-oceanographic buoy ODAS ITALIA1 for over eight months. The ADCP sampled the upper 50 m of water column at 8 m vertical resolution and 1 h time interval; surface marine and atmospheric hourly data were provided by the buoy. Currents were mainly barotropic and directed NW, according to the general circulation of the area, had a mean velocity of about 18 cm s−1 and hourly mean peaks up to 80 m s−1. Most of the observed variability in the upper thermocline was determined by inertial currents and mesoscale activity due to the presence of the Ligurian Front. Local wind had a minor role in the near-surface circulation but induced internal waves propagating downward in the water column.

  15. Sea level trend and variability in the Singapore Strait

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Tkalich

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Sea level in the Singapore Strait (SS exhibits response to various scale phenomena, from local to global. Longest tide gauge records in SS are analysed to derive local sea level trend and annual, inter-annual and multi-decadal sea level variability, which then are attributed to regional and global phenomena. Annual data gaps are reconstructed using functions correlating sea level variability with ENSO. At annual scale, sea level anomalies in SS are (quasi-periodic monsoon-driven, of the order of ±20 cm, the highest during northeast monsoon and the lowest during southwest monsoon. Interannual regional sea level drops are associated with El Niño events, while the rises are correlated with La Niña episodes; both variations are in the range of ±5 cm. At multi-decadal scale, annual measured sea levels in SS are varying with global mean sea level, rising at the rate 1.2–1.7 mm yr−1 for 1975–2009, 1.8–2.3 mm yr−1 for 1984–2009 and 1.9–4.6 mm yr−1 for 1993–2009. When SS rates are compared with the global trends (2.0, 2.4 and 2.8 mm yr−1, respectively derived from tide gauge measurements for the same periods, they are smaller in the earlier era and considerably larger in the recent one. Taking into account the first estimate of land subsidence rate, 1–1.5 mm yr−1 in Singapore, the recent trend of absolute sea level rise in SS follows regional tendency.

  16. The sea level fingerprint of recent ice mass fluxes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bamber, J.; Riva, R.E.M.

    2010-01-01

    The sea level contribution from glacial sources has been accelerating during the first decade of the 21st Century (Meier et al., 2007; Velicogna, 2009). This contribution is not distributed uniformly across the world's oceans due to both oceanographic and gravitational effects. We compute the sea le

  17. Sedimentary history of the eastern Bohai Sea, China since the deglacial and implications for paleo-tidal current

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Zhengquan; Shi, Xuefa

    2016-04-01

    Numerical simulation suggests that the Holocene sediments re-suspension and distribution in the Bohai Sea was mainly controlled by tidal current regime, which was closely related with sea-level change. Study on sediments in the Bohai Sea thus can provide insights into the evolution of tidal-influenced sedimentary environment and its links with sea-level change. Our understanding of this issue remains incomplete, however, owing to the lack of comprehensive study on sediment core with high-resolution proxies to test such inference. In this study, analyses of sedimentary facies, proxies (grain size, total organic carbon and total nitrogen, X-ray fluorescence scanning Sulfur and Chlorine ratio) and accelerator mass spectrometry 14C dates of a sediment core recovered from the eastern Bohai Sea were carried out to clarify the Holocene sedimentary environment, tidal current change and its relation to the sea-level. The results indicate that the eastern Bohai Sea was dominated by fluvial-coastal environment prior to 12400 cal. a BP due to the sea-level lowstand and changed to tidal-influenced environment from 12400 to 6700 cal. a BP following the rapid sea-level rising. Thereafter shelf environment with minor tidal influence dominated the eastern Bohai Sea under the condition of a deceleration of sea-level rise. The significant change at ~6700 cal. a BP both in sedimentary environment and sediment proxies, indicating an environmental transition from strong tidal-influenced to less tidal-influenced setting. With the sea-level rising from the early Holocene to the mid-Holocene, tidal-current was much strong due to the low sea-level stand and became weak after the maximum transgression at ~6700 cal. a BP. These results are consistent with the numerical simulation, which suggested that less strong tidal current were the consequence of the most highstand sea-level since the mid-Holocene. Our study thus provides a sedimentary record to support the interpretation of numerical

  18. Changes in extreme regional sea level under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunnabend, S.-E.; Dijkstra, H. A.; Kliphuis, M. A.; Bal, H. E.; Seinstra, F.; van Werkhoven, B.; Maassen, J.; van Meersbergen, M.

    2017-01-01

    An important contribution to future changes in regional sea level extremes is due to the changes in intrinsic ocean variability, in particular ocean eddies. Here, we study a scenario of future dynamic sea level (DSL) extremes using a high-resolution version of the Parallel Ocean Program and generalized extreme value theory. This model is forced with atmospheric fluxes from a coupled climate model which has been integrated under the IPCC-SRES-A1B scenario over the period 2000-2100. Changes in 10-year return time DSL extremes are very inhomogeneous over the globe and are related to changes in ocean currents and corresponding regional shifts in ocean eddy pathways. In this scenario, several regions in the North Atlantic experience an increase in mean DSL of up to 0.4 m over the period 2000-2100. DSL extremes with a 10-year return time increase up to 0.2 m with largest values in the northern and eastern Atlantic.

  19. Eco-technological management of Tuvalu against sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kayanne, H.

    2012-12-01

    Atoll island is formed and maintained by sand production, transportation and sedimentation process. Major component of sand in the Pacific atolls is foraminifera, which is produced on the ocean-side reef flat, and then transported from the ocean-side to the lagoon-side coast through channels between the islands. Sand is then transported along the lagoon-side coast by longshore current, and finally deposited to nourish sandy beach. At present, however, this natural process has been deteriorated by local human stresses. High production of foraminifera and corals are degraded by human waste. Transportation of sand from the ocean to the lagoon is blocked by a causeway, and longshore transportation and sedimentation along the lagoon coast is prevented by jetties, dredges and upright seawalls. All these local factors severely reduce natural resilience and increase vulnerability against the projected future sea level rise and the global changes. Countermeasure plans must be based on and must not conflict with the natural island formation process. We launched "Eco-technological management of Tuvalu against sea level rise" under Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development funded by JICA and JST. The goal of this project is to regenerate sandy beach along Fongafale Island, Funrafuti Atoll Tuvalu by rehabilitation of production, transportation and sedimentation process including establishing foraminifera culture system.; Fig. 1 Aerial view of Fongafale Is., Funafuti Atoll, Tuvalu.

  20. Sea level variations at tropical Pacific islands since 1950

    OpenAIRE

    M. Becker; Meyssignac, B.; Letetrel, C.; Llovel, W.; A. Cazenave; Delcroix, Thierry

    2012-01-01

    The western tropical Pacific is usually considered as one of the most vulnerable regions of the world under present-day and future global warming. It is often reported that some islands of the region already suffer significant sea level rise. To clarify the latter concern, in the present study we estimate sea level rise and variability since 1950 in the western tropical Pacific region (20 degrees S-15 degrees N; 120 degrees E-135 degrees W). We estimate the total rate of sea level change at s...

  1. Explaining trends and variability in coastal relative sea level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frederikse, Thomas; Riva, Riccardo

    2016-04-01

    Comprehensive understanding of trends and variability in coastal mean sea level is vital for protecting shores under a changing climate. To understand the behavior of coastal relative sea level (RSL), it is crucial to identify all relevant processes. We combine data from various geophysical models and observations to determine whether the trends and decadal variability observed in relative sea level at tide gauges can be explained by the sum of all known contributors. A key contributor to RSL is vertical land motion, which is caused by glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), solid earth response to surface loading, tectonics, and local effects. We explicitly model low-frequency loading effects to correct GPS records, which leads to a more consistent trend than only using GIA models. Secondly, we create sea level fingerprints based on estimates of ice melt and changes in land hydrology, which provide the RSL contribution due to large-scale mass transport. Since coastal areas are often located on shallow continental shelves, steric effects will generally be small, and a large fraction of the decadal sea level variability will have a remote steric origin. Therefore, we determine a relation between coastal sea level and deep sea steric variability. For the period 1950-2012, we find that for many locations, including the European coast, the observed and modeled RSL time series agree well on decadal and secular scales.

  2. Annotated Bibliography of Relative Sea Level Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-09-01

    established between orbital geometry changes and the oxygen isotope fluctuations in the deep sea records. The insulation effects of the Milankovitch ...melt products, amplify Milankovitch (insolation) forcing of the volumentrically dominant mid-latitude ice sheets at the 23,000-year precessional...Implications for Milankovitch Theory," Science, Vol 243, pp 1275-1280. A continuous record of 6 variations in the continental hydrosphere during the middle

  3. Uncertainties in Steric Sea Level Change Estimation During the Satellite Altimeter Era: Concepts and Practices

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacIntosh, C. R.; Merchant, C. J.; von Schuckmann, K.

    2016-10-01

    This article presents a review of current practice in estimating steric sea level change, focussed on the treatment of uncertainty. Steric sea level change is the contribution to the change in sea level arising from the dependence of density on temperature and salinity. It is a significant component of sea level rise and a reflection of changing ocean heat content. However, tracking these steric changes still remains a significant challenge for the scientific community. We review the importance of understanding the uncertainty in estimates of steric sea level change. Relevant concepts of uncertainty are discussed and illustrated with the example of observational uncertainty propagation from a single profile of temperature and salinity measurements to steric height. We summarise and discuss the recent literature on methodologies and techniques used to estimate steric sea level in the context of the treatment of uncertainty. Our conclusions are that progress in quantifying steric sea level uncertainty will benefit from: greater clarity and transparency in published discussions of uncertainty, including exploitation of international standards for quantifying and expressing uncertainty in measurement; and the development of community "recipes" for quantifying the error covariances in observations and from sparse sampling and for estimating and propagating uncertainty across spatio-temporal scales.

  4. Uncertainties in Steric Sea Level Change Estimation During the Satellite Altimeter Era: Concepts and Practices

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacIntosh, C. R.; Merchant, C. J.; von Schuckmann, K.

    2017-01-01

    This article presents a review of current practice in estimating steric sea level change, focussed on the treatment of uncertainty. Steric sea level change is the contribution to the change in sea level arising from the dependence of density on temperature and salinity. It is a significant component of sea level rise and a reflection of changing ocean heat content. However, tracking these steric changes still remains a significant challenge for the scientific community. We review the importance of understanding the uncertainty in estimates of steric sea level change. Relevant concepts of uncertainty are discussed and illustrated with the example of observational uncertainty propagation from a single profile of temperature and salinity measurements to steric height. We summarise and discuss the recent literature on methodologies and techniques used to estimate steric sea level in the context of the treatment of uncertainty. Our conclusions are that progress in quantifying steric sea level uncertainty will benefit from: greater clarity and transparency in published discussions of uncertainty, including exploitation of international standards for quantifying and expressing uncertainty in measurement; and the development of community "recipes" for quantifying the error covariances in observations and from sparse sampling and for estimating and propagating uncertainty across spatio-temporal scales.

  5. Observing Sea Level Change and its Causes with Satellite Remote Sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boening, Carmen; Fu, Lee-Lueng; Landerer, Felix; Willis, Josh

    2016-07-01

    Sea level rise as a response to a changing climate is an imminent threat for coastal communities in the near future. Coastal zone management relies on most accurate predictions of sea level change over the coming decades for planning potential mitigation efforts. Hence, it is of high importance to accurately measure changes and understand physical processes behind them in great detail on a variety of time scales. Satellite observations of sea level height from altimetry have provided an unprecedented understanding of global changes and regional patterns for over two decades. With more and more missions providing now also observations of causes such as water mass changes due to ice melt and land hydrology as well as the ocean heat and salinity budget and local and regional wind patterns, we can now get a comprehensive understanding of the physical processes causing the short to long term changes in sea level. Here, we present an overview of sea level observations in combination with a suite of measurements looking at sea level contributions to provide insight into current and future challenges to understand the sea level budget and its impact on the accuracy of future projections.

  6. Climate And Sea Level: It's In Our Hands Now

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turrin, M.; Bell, R. E.; Ryan, W. B. F.

    2014-12-01

    Changes in sea level are measurable on both a local and a global scale providing an accessible way to connect climate to education, yet engaging teachers and students with the complex science that is behind the change in sea level can be a challenge. Deciding how much should be included and just how it should be introduced in any single classroom subject area can be an obstacle for a teacher. The Sea Level Rise Polar Explorer App developed through the PoLAR CCEP grant offers a guided tour through the many layers of science that impact sea level rise. This map-based data-rich app is framed around a series of questions that move the user through map layers with just the level of complexity they chose to explore. For a quick look teachers and students can review a 3 or 4 sentence introduction on how the given map links to sea level and then launch straight into the interactive touchable map. For a little more in depth look they can listen to (or read) a one-minute recorded background on the data displayed in the map prior to launching in. For those who want more in depth understanding they can click to a one page background piece on the topic with links to further visualizations, videos and data. Regardless of the level of complexity selected each map is composed of clickable data allowing the user to fully explore the science. The different options for diving in allow teachers to differentiate the learning for either the subject being taught or the user level of the student group. The map layers also include a range of complexities. Basic questions like "What is sea level?" talk about shorelines, past sea levels and elevations beneath the sea. Questions like "Why does sea level change?" includes slightly more complex issues like the role of ocean temperature, and how that differs from ocean heat content. And what is the role of the warming atmosphere in sea level change? Questions about "What about sea level in the past?" can bring challenges for students who have

  7. Glaciers dominate eustatic sea-level rise in the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meier, Mark Frederick; Dyurgerov, M.B.; Rick, Ursula K.; Pfeffer, William Tad; Anderson, Suzanne P.; Glazovsky, Andrey F.

    2007-01-01

    Ice loss to the sea currently accounts for virtually all of the sea-level rise that is not attributable to ocean warming, and about 60% of the ice loss is from glaciers and ice caps rather than from the two ice sheets. The contribution of these smaller glaciers has accelerated over the past decade, in part due to marked thinning and retreat of marine-terminating glaciers associated with a dynamic instability that is generally not considered in mass-balance and climate modeling. This acceleration of glacier melt may cause 0.1 to 0.25 meter of additional sea-level rise by 2100.

  8. The importance of sea-level research (Plinius Medal Lecture)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horton, Benjamin

    2016-04-01

    200 million people worldwide live in coastal regions less than 5 meters above sea level. By the end of the 21st century, this figure is estimated to increase to 500 million. These low-lying coastal regions are vulnerable to changes in sea level brought about by climate change, storms or earthquakes. But the historic and instrumental record is too short to fully understand the climate relationships and capture the occurrence of the rare, but most destructive events. The coastal sedimentary record provides a long-term and robust paleo perspective on the rates, magnitudes and spatial variability of sea-level rise and the frequency (recurrence interval) and magnitude of destructive events. Reconstructions of paleo sea level are important for identifying the meltwater contributions, constraining parameters in Earth-Ice models, and estimating past and present rates of spatially variable sea-level change associated glacial isostatic adjustment, sediment compaction and tidal range variability. Sea-level reconstructions capture multiple phases of climate and sea-level behavior for model calibration and provide a pre-anthropogenic background against which to compare recent trends. Pre-historic earthquakes (Mw>8.0) are often associated with abrupt and cyclical patterns of vertical land-motion that are manifest in coastal sedimentary archives as abrupt changes in relative sea level. Geologic evidence of paleoearthquakes elucidates characteristic and repeated pattern of land-level movements associated with the earthquake-deformation cycle. Tsunamis and storms leave behind anomalous and characteristic sediment that is incorporated into the coastal sedimentary record often as evidence of a high-energy event affecting a low-energy, depositional environment. Records of tsunamis developed from the sedimentary deposits they leave behind improve understanding of tsunami processes and frequency by expanding the age range of events available for study. Reconstructions of paleo storms

  9. Global mapping of nonseismic sea level oscillations at tsunami timescales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilibić, Ivica; Šepić, Jadranka

    2017-01-01

    Present investigations of sea level extremes are based on hourly data measured at coastal tide gauges. The use of hourly data restricts existing global and regional analyses to periods larger than 2 h. However, a number of processes occur at minute timescales, of which the most ruinous are tsunamis. Meteotsunamis, hazardous nonseismic waves that occur at tsunami timescales over limited regions, may also locally dominate sea level extremes. Here, we show that nonseismic sea level oscillations at tsunami timescales (tsunami timescales and atmospheric synoptic patterns would allow for forecasting of nonseismic sea level oscillations for operational use, as well as hindcasting and projection of their effects under past, present and future climates. PMID:28098195

  10. Eastern Equatorial Pacific Sea Level Pressure (1949-present)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This is one of the CPC?s Monthly Atmospheric and SST Indices. It contains standardized sea level pressure anomalies over the equatorial eastern Pacific region...

  11. Climate Prediction Center Tahiti Sea Level Pressure (1951-present)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This is one of the CPC?s Monthly Atmospheric and SST Indices. It contains Tahiti sea level pressures and anomalies during 1951-present. The anomalies are departures...

  12. Sea Level Rise Projections for DSL-SAMBI

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — This dataset is output from the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) for the South Atlantic Migratory Bird Initiative (SAMBI) geographic planning region. It...

  13. Overestimation of marsh vulnerability to sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirwan, Matthew L.; Temmerman, Stijn; Skeehan, Emily E.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.; Fagherazzi, Sergio

    2016-01-01

    Coastal marshes are considered to be among the most valuable and vulnerable ecosystems on Earth, where the imminent loss of ecosystem services is a feared consequence of sea level rise. However, we show with a meta-analysis that global measurements of marsh elevation change indicate that marshes are generally building at rates similar to or exceeding historical sea level rise, and that process-based models predict survival under a wide range of future sea level scenarios. We argue that marsh vulnerability tends to be overstated because assessment methods often fail to consider biophysical feedback processes known to accelerate soil building with sea level rise, and the potential for marshes to migrate inland.

  14. Holocene sea levels of Visakhapatnam shelf, east coast of India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Rao, K.M.; Rao, T.C.S.

    The Holocene sea level changes in the shelf areas off Visakhapatnam was studied from sediment distribution pattern and shallow seismic profiling. Morphological features on the shelf indicate a Late Pleistocene regression down to about -130 m below...

  15. [Book review] Sea level rise: history and consequences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grossman, Eric E.

    2004-01-01

    Review of: Sea level Rise: history and consequences. Bruce Douglas, Michael S. Kearney and Stephen P. Leatherman (eds), Sand Diego: Academic Press, 2001, 232 pp. plus CD-RIM, US$64.95, hardback. ISBN 0-12-221345-9.

  16. Changes in Absolute Sea Level Along U.S. Coasts

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This map shows changes in absolute sea level from 1960 to 2016 based on satellite measurements. Data were adjusted by applying an inverted barometer (air pressure)...

  17. USGS Map service: Coastal Vulnerability to Sea-Level Rise

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The coastal vulnerability index (CVI)provides a preliminary overview, at a National scale, of the relative susceptibility of the Nation's coast to sea-level rise....

  18. Thermosteric Sea Level Rise Projections with Parametric Uncertainty

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — These files contain spatial fields of simulated yearly thermosteric sea-level anomalies between 1951-2100 (referenced to year 1800) from a perturbed physics ensemble...

  19. USGS Map service: Coastal Vulnerability to Sea-Level Rise

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The coastal vulnerability index (CVI)provides a preliminary overview, at a National scale, of the relative susceptibility of the Nation's coast to sea-level rise....

  20. Seasonal sea level variability and anomalies in the Singapore Strait

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Tkalich, P.; Vethamony, P.; Babu, M.T.; Pokratath, P.

    Environmental Agency and Maritime Port Authority. Discussions with NUS and Deltares colleagues, Vladan BABOVIC and Herman GERRITSEN, have been most fruitful. REFERENCES Cabanes, C., Cazenzve, A., Le Provost, C., 2001. Sea level rise during past 40...

  1. Humboldt Nay NWR Sea-level rise modeling

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — Baseline information required to assess sea-level rise impacts to marsh habitats will be compiled. The project will provide relevant information to local managers...

  2. Climate Prediction Center Indonesia Sea Level Pressure (1949-present)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This is one of the CPC?s Monthly Atmospheric and SST Indices. It contains standardized sea level pressure anomalies over the equatorial Indonesia region...

  3. Computation of Wave, Tide and Wind Current for the South China Sea Under Tropical Cyclones

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    朱良生; 宋运法; 邱章; 陈秀华; 麦波强; 丘耀文; 宋丽莉

    2003-01-01

    Based on the third-generation oceanic wave prediction model (WAVEWATCH Ⅲ),the third-generation nearshore wave calculation model (SWAN) and the mathematical tide, tidal current and cyclone current model, which have been improved, interconnected and expanded, a coupled model of offshore wave, tide and sea current under tropical cyclone surges in the South China Sea has been established. The coupled model is driven by the tropical cyclone field containing the background wind field. In order to test the hindcasting effect of the mathematical model, a comparison has been made between the calculated results and the observational results of waves of 15 cyclone cases, water levels and current velocities of the of 7 cyclones. The results of verification indicate that the calculated and observed results are basically identical.

  4. Regional sea level change in the Thailand-Indonesia region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenoglio-Marc, L.; Becker, M. H.; Buchhaupt, C.

    2013-12-01

    It is expected that the regional sea level rise will strongly affect particular regions with direct impacts including submergence of coastal zones, rising water tables and salt intrusion into groundwaters. It can possibly also exacerbate other factors as floodings, associated to storms and hurricanes, as well as ground subsidence of anthropogenic nature. The Thailand-Vietnam-Indonesian region is one of those zones. On land, the Chao-Praya and Mekong Delta are fertile alluvial zones. The potential for sea level increases and extreme floodings due to global warming makes the Deltas a place where local, regional, and global environmental changes are converging. We investigate the relative roles of regional and global mechanisms resulting in multidecadal variations and inflections in the rate of sea level change. Altimetry and GRACE data are used to investigate the variation of land floodings. The land surface water extent is evaluated at 25 km sampling intervals over fifteen years (1993-2007) using a multisatellite methodology which captures the extent of episodic and seasonal inundations, wetlands, rivers, lakes, and irrigated agriculture, using passive and active (microwaves and visible observations. The regional sea level change is analysed during the period 1993-2012 using satellite altimetry, wind and ocean model data, tide gauge data and GPS. The rates of absolute eustatic sea level rise derived from satellite altimetry through 19-year long precise altimeter observations are in average higher than the global mean rate. Several tide gauge records indicate an even higher sea level rise relative to land. We show that the sea level change is closely linked to the ENSO mode of variability and strongly affected by changes in wind forcing and ocean circulation. We have determined the vertical crustal motion at a given tide gauge location by differencing the tide gauge sea level time-series with an equivalent time-series derived from satellite altimetry and by computing

  5. Sea level differences across the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio extension

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zlotnicki, Victor

    1991-01-01

    The sea level differences between the Sargasso Sea and the slope waters across the Gulf Stream region, averaged between 73 and 61 deg W, and the comparable areas across the Kuroshio extension region, averaged between 143 and 156 deg E, were estimated using the Geosat altimeter data obtained between November 1986 and December 1988. The sea-level differences between the two regions showed a strong correlation between the northwest Atlantic and Pacific, dominated by annual cycles that peak in late-September to mid-October, with about 9 cm (the Gulf Stream region) and about 6.9 cm (Kuroshio region) amplitudes.

  6. Climate Sensitivity, Sea Level, and Atmospheric CO2

    OpenAIRE

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Russell, Gary; Kharecha, Pushker

    2012-01-01

    Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 co-variations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can be accurately inferred from precise paleoclimate data. Pleistocene climate oscillations yield a fast-feedback climate sensitivity 3 +/- 1{\\deg}C for 4 W/m2 CO2 forcing if Holocene warming relative to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is used as calibration, bu...

  7. Mangrove Retreat with Rising Sea-level, Bermuda

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellison, Joanna C.

    1993-07-01

    Low island mangroves keep up with slow sea-level rise by peat accumulation. Holocene stratigraphic records show that they maintain the same pace as sea-level rise at rates up to 9 cm/100 years. Tide gauge records from Bermuda since 1932 show sea-level rise at a rate of 28 cm/100 years. The largest mangrove area (6·26 acres) at Hungry Bay has for the last 2000 years been building peat at a rate of 8·5 to 10·6 cm/100 years. Retreat of the seaward edge has caused loss of 2·24 acres of mangroves, commencing in the last few hundred years, with a second dieback between 1900 and 1947, and a third dieback in the last decade. The substrate elevation of the seaward margin of mangroves is below mean sea-level, the normal lower limit for mangroves. Present dieback shows problems of erosion indicating that the Bruun Rule of beach erosion with sea-level rise is also appropriate for mangrove swamps. Stratigraphy shows that before 4000 BP sea-level rose at a rate of 25 cm/100 years, from 4000 to 1000 years BP the rate of sea-level rise declined to 6 cm/100 years during which time mangroves established, and in the last 1000 years there was an increase to 14·3 cm/100 years, during which time the mangroves died back. This study indicates that low island mangroves will experience problems with the rates of sea-level rise predicted for the next 50 years.

  8. Sea level Variability and Juan de Fuca Bathymetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huybers, P. J.; Boulahanis, B.; Proistosescu, C.; Langmuir, C. H.; Carbotte, S. M.; Katz, R. F.

    2015-12-01

    That deglaciation influences mid-ocean ridge volcanism is well established for Iceland, where depressurization associated with melting a ~2 km ice cap led to order of magnitude increases in volcanism during the last deglaciation. The case was also made that the more subtle ~100 m changes in sea level that accompany glacial cycles have identifiable implications for undersea mid-ocean ridge systems using both models and data from the Australian-Antarctic Ridge (Crowley et al., 2015). Sea level rising at ~1 cm/year during deglaciation leads to an expectation of ~10% decreases in melt production at ridges, given mantle upwelling rates of ˜3 cm/yr at intermediate spreading ridges and mantle density being ~3 times that of seawater. The implications of variations in melt production for bathymetry, however, involve numerous considerations, including whether melt signals are cancelled within the melt column, appreciably alter accretionary or fault processes, and have identifiable surface expressions. Further empirical assessment of bathymetry is thus useful for purposes of confirming patterns and constraining processes. Here we report on spectral analyses of bathymetry recently acquired from the Juan de Fuca ridge between 44°30'N and 45°15'N during the SeaVOICE expedition. Multibeam swath sonar data were acquired with an EM122 sonar insonfiying seafloor to crustal ages of ˜2 ma with 35 m spatial resolution. We examine (1.) the statistical significance of concentrations of bathymetric variability at the 100 ky, 41 ky, and 23 ky periods characteristic of late-Pleistocene sea level variability; (2.) whether sea level responses are primarily at 41 ky periods in crust accreted during the early Pleistocene, when global sea level variations were primarily at this period; and (3.) if sea level responses are superimposed on bathymetry variations or, instead, align with fault features. We also note that Juan de Fuca's proximity to the Cordilleran Ice Sheet implies that regional

  9. Terrestrial Waters and Sea Level Variations on Interannual Time Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llovel, W.; Becker, M.; Cazenave, A.; Jevrejeva, S.; Alkama, R.; Decharme, B.; Douville, H.; Ablain, M.; Beckley, B.

    2011-01-01

    On decadal to multi-decadal time scales, thermal expansion of sea waters and land ice loss are the main contributors to sea level variations. However, modification of the terrestrial water cycle due to climate variability and direct anthropogenic forcing may also affect sea level. For the past decades, variations in land water storage and corresponding effects on sea level cannot be directly estimated from observations because these are almost non-existent at global continental scale. However, global hydrological models developed for atmospheric and climatic studies can be used for estimating total water storage. For the recent years (since mid-2002), terrestrial water storage change can be directly estimated from observations of the GRACE space gravimetry mission. In this study, we analyse the interannual variability of total land water storage, and investigate its contribution to mean sea level variability at interannual time scale. We consider three different periods that, each, depend on data availability: (1) GRACE era (2003-2009), (2) 1993-2003 and (3) 1955-1995. For the GRACE era (period 1), change in land water storage is estimated using different GRACE products over the 33 largest river basins worldwide. For periods 2 and 3, we use outputs from the ISBA-TRIP (Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere-Total Runoff Integrating Pathways) global hydrological model. For each time span, we compare change in land water storage (expressed in sea level equivalent) to observed mean sea level, either from satellite altimetry (periods 1 and 2) or tide gauge records (period 3). For each data set and each time span, a trend has been removed as we focus on the interannual variability. We show that whatever the period considered, interannual variability of the mean sea level is essentially explained by interannual fluctuations in land water storage, with the largest contributions arising from tropical river basins.

  10. Analysis of the sea levels in Kiribati A Rising Sea of Misrepresentation Sinks Kiribati

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Albert

    2016-03-01

    The sea levels of Kiribati have been stable over the last few decades, as elsewhere in the world. The Australian government funded Pacific Sea Level Monitoring (PSLM) project has adjusted sea level records to produce an unrealistic rising trend. Some information has been hidden or neglected, especially from sources of different management. The measured monthly average mean sea levels suffer from subsidence or manipulation resulting in a tilting from the about 0 (zero) mm/year of nearby tide gauges to 4 (four) mm/year over the same short time window. Real environmental problems are driven by the increasing local population leading to troubles including scarcity of water, localized sinking and localised erosion.

  11. Latest Developments from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, Andrew; Bradshaw, Elizabeth; Gordon, Kathy; Hibbert, Angela; Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Rickards, Lesley; Williams, Simon; Woodworth, Philip

    2017-04-01

    The Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) is the internationally recognised global sea level data bank for long term sea level change information from tide gauges. Established in 1933, the PSMSL continues to be responsible for the collection, publication, analysis and interpretation of sea level data, and is based in Liverpool at the National Oceanography Centre. The PSMSL operates under the auspices of the International Council for Science (ICSU), is a regular member of the ICSU World Data System and is associated with the International Association for the Physical Sciences of the Oceans (IAPSO) and the International Association of Geodesy (IAG). The PSMSL continues to work closely with other members of the sea level community through the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission's Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS). Currently, the PSMSL data bank holds over 68,500 station-years of monthly and annual mean sea level data from over 2300 tide gauge stations. Data from each site are quality controlled and, wherever possible, reduced to a common datum, whose stability is monitored through a network of geodetic benchmarks. PSMSL also distributes a data bank of measurements taken from in-situ ocean bottom pressure recorders. Here we will present an overview of the PSMSL dataset, how it can be obtained, where it has been used, and how we recommend it should be cited. We will describe how the global tide gauge network has evolved over the past 200 years and examine its current state. We will also discuss our ongoing work with SONEL to exchange information about geodetic links between tide gauges and GNSS receivers, allowing us to link relative sea level measured at tide gauges to the reference ellipsoid, and to provide an estimate of the rate of vertical land movement.

  12. Quantitative constraints on the sea-level fall that terminated the Littorina Sea Stage, southern Scandinavia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clemmensen, Lars B.; Murray, Andrew S.; Nielsen, Lars

    2012-04-01

    The island of Anholt in the Kattegat sea (southern Scandinavia) is made up largely of an extensive beach-ridge plain. As a result of post-glacial uplift, the earliest beach-ridge and swale deposits are now raised 8-9 m above present mean sea level. It appears that growth of the plain has been almost uninterrupted over the past 7500 years; here we constrain the evolution of this plain between 6300 and 1300 years ago using optically stimulated luminescence dates. The topography and internal architecture of the fossil shoreline deposits were measured on high-resolution maps and in ground-penetrating radar (GPR) reflection data with a vertical resolution of ˜0.25 m. Shoreline topography shows significant changes with time, and it appears that one of the most striking changes took place between 4300 and 3600 years ago; in the shoreline deposits corresponding to this time interval the surface drops by around 3.5 m suggesting a marked fall in relative sea-level. Assuming a constant uplift rate of 1.2 mm/yr, the corresponding drop in absolute sea-level is estimated to be around 2.6 m. This marked sea-level fall in 700 years took place at the transition from the Middle Holocene Thermal Maximum to the Late Holocene Thermal Decline or at the end of the Littorina Sea stage in the Baltic Sea region.

  13. Integrating Non-Tidal Sea Level data from altimetry and tide gauges for coastal sea level prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cheng, Yongcun; Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Knudsen, Per

    2012-01-01

    The main objective of this paper is to integrate Non-Tidal Sea Level (NSL) from the joint TOPEX, Jason-1 and Jason-2 satellite altimetry with tide gauge data at the west and north coast of the United Kingdom for coastal sea level prediction. The temporal correlation coefficient between altimetric...... frequency NSL variation (i.e., every 15min) during a storm surge event at an independent tide gauge station at the Northeast of the UK (Aberdeen)....

  14. Regional Sea Level Scenarios for Coastal Risk Management: Managing the Uncertainty of Future Sea Level Change and Extreme Water Levels for Department of Defense Coastal Sites Worldwide

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-04-01

    WORLDWIDE APRIL 2016 REGIONAL SEA LEVEL SCENARIOS FOR COASTAL RISK MANAGEMENT: COVER PHOTOS, FROM LEFT TO RIGHT: - Overwash of the island of Roi-Namur on...J.A., S. Gill, J. Obeysekera, W. Sweet, K. Knuuti, and J. Marburger. 2016. Regional Sea Level Scenarios for Coastal Risk Management: Managing the...DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE COASTAL SITES WORLDWIDE REGIONAL SEA LEVEL SCENARIOS FOR COASTAL RISK MANAGEMENT: 4800 Mark Center Drive, Suite 17D08 Alexandria, VA

  15. Relationship between Late Pleistocene sea-level variations, carbonate platform morphology and aragonite production (Maldives, Indian Ocean)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paul, A.; Reijmer, J.J.G.; Fürstenau, J.

    2012-01-01

    that sediments on the Maldives carbonate platform contain a continuous record of Pleistocene sea-level variations. These sediments may, therefore, contribute to a better understanding of regional and even global sea-level changes, and yield new insights into the interplay between ocean currents and carbonate...

  16. Synthetic stratigraphy of epicontinental seas: a carbonate sedimentation model and its applications in sea level studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cisne, J.L.; Gildner, R.F.

    1984-04-01

    Carbonates from the central parts of epicontinental seas are ideal strata for detailed study of eustatic sea level change. On the basis of sedimentation model in which carbonate accumulation rate is directly proportional to water depth, we developed synthetic stratigraphies for sea level histories expected for post-glacial transgression and for constant and sinusoidally fluctuating ocean ridge volume increase. These histories give distinctly different trends for water depth as a function of stratigraphic position in the sections' bathymetric curves. In general, water depth is proportional to the rate of sea level rise. Depth-dependent sedimentation leads to a time lag between sea level fluctuation and corresponding depth fluctuation which, as examples show, can approach 10/sup 6/ years for depth fluctuations of even a few meters--a fundamental consideration for reconstructing sea level curves, time-correlating sections by bathymetric curves, and relating water depth on continents to ocean ridge volume. Bathymetric curves based on gradient analysis of fossil assemblages (coenocorrelation curves) for American Middle Ordovician sections approximate patterns expected for sinusoidally increasing sea level. The model's predictions are tested in an ''artificial experiment'' that takes advantage of differential subsidence between the craton's middle and its edge to make a difference in the bathymetric histories of sections that otherwise record the same sea level history. The depth dependence in sedimentation was that above wave base net accumulation per year was very roughly 3 x 10/sup -6/ of the water depth.

  17. Allowances for evolving coastal flood risk under uncertain local sea-level rise

    CERN Document Server

    Buchanan, Maya K; Oppenheimer, Michael; Tebaldi, Claudia

    2015-01-01

    Sea-level rise (SLR) causes estimates of flood risk made under the assumption of stationary mean sea level to be biased low. However, adjustments to flood return levels made assuming fixed increases of sea level are also inaccurate when applied to sea level that is rising over time at an uncertain rate. To accommodate both the temporal dynamics of SLR and their uncertainty, we develop an Average Annual Design Life Level (AADLL) metric and associated Design Life SLR (DL-SLR) allowances. The AADLL is the flood level corresponding to a time-integrated annual expected probability of occurrence (AEP) under uncertainty over the design life of an asset; DL-SLR allowances are the adjustment from 2000 levels that maintain current average probability over the design life. Given non-stationary and uncertain sea-level rise, AADLL flood levels and DL-SLR allowances provide estimates of flood protection heights and offsets for different planning horizons and different levels of confidence in SLR projections in coastal area...

  18. Final report for sea-level rise response modeling for San Francisco Bay estuary tidal marshes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takekawa, John Y.; Thorne, Karen M.; Buffington, Kevin J.; Spragens, Kyle A.; Swanson, Kathleen M.; Drexler, Judith Z.; Schoellhamer, David H.; Overton, Cory T.; Casazza, Michael L.

    2013-01-01

    The International Panel on Climate Change has identified coastal ecosystems as areas that will be disproportionally affected by climate change. Current sea-level rise projections range widely with 0.57 to 1.9 meters increase in mea sea level by 2100. The expected accelerated rate of sea-level rise through the 21st century will put many coastal ecosystems at risk, especially those in topographically low-gradient areas. We assessed marsh accretion and plant community state changes through 2100 at 12 tidal salt marshes around San Francisco Bay estuary with a sea-level rise response model. Detailed ground elevation, vegetation, and water level data were collected at all sites between 2008 and 2011 and used as model inputs. Sediment cores (taken by Callaway and others, 2012) at four sites around San Francisco Bay estuary were used to estimate accretion rates. A modification of the Callaway and others (1996) model, the Wetland Accretion Rate Model for Ecosystem Resilience (WARMER), was utilized to run sea-level rise response models for all sites. With a mean sea level rise of 1.24 m by 2100, WARMER projected that the vast majority, 95.8 percent (1,942 hectares), of marsh area in our study will lose marsh plant communities by 2100 and to transition to a relative elevation range consistent with mudflat habitat. Three marshes were projected to maintain marsh vegetation to 2100, but they only composed 4.2 percent (85 hectares) of the total marsh area surveyed.

  19. Seasonal sea level extremes in the Mediterranean Sea and at the Atlantic European coasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. N. Tsimplis

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Hourly sea level data from tide gauges and a barotropic model are used to explore the spatial and temporal variability of sea level extremes in the Mediterranean Sea and the Atlantic coasts of the Iberian peninsula on seasonal time scales. Significant spatial variability is identified in the observations in all seasons. The Atlantic stations show larger extreme values than the Mediterranean Sea primarily due to the tidal signal. When the tidal signal is removed most stations have maximum values of less than 90 cm occurring in winter or autumn. The maxima in spring and summer are less than 60 cm in most stations. The wind and atmospheric forcing contributes about 50 cm in the winter and between 20–40 cm in the other seasons. In the western Mediterranean the observed extreme values are less than 50 cm, except near the Strait of Gibraltar. Direct atmospheric forcing contributes significantly to sea level extremes. Maximum sea level values due to atmospheric forcing reach in some stations 45 cm during the winter. During the summer the contribution of the direct atmospheric forcing is between 10–20 cm. The Adriatic Sea shows a resonant behaviour with maximum extreme observed sea level values around 200 cm found at the northern part. Trends in the 99.9% percentiles are present in several areas, however most of them are removed when the 50% percentile is subtracted indicating that changes in the extremes are in line with mean sea level change. The North Atlantic Oscillation and the Mediterranean Oscillation Index are well correlated with the changes in the 99.9% winter values in the Atlantic, western Mediterranean and the Adriatic stations. The correlation of the NAO and the MOI indices in the Atlantic and western Mediterranean is significant in the autumn too. The correlations between the NAO and MOI index and the changes in the sea level extremes become insignificant when the 50% percentile is removed indicating again that changes in extremes

  20. GRAIN SIZE DISTRIBUTION OF SEDIMENT IN THE NORTHERN EAST CHINA SEA AND THE RELATIONSHIP WITH THE SEA CURRENTS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LEI Kun; YANG Zuosheng; GUO Zhigang

    2002-01-01

    This paper discusses the relationship between the grain size distribution of sediment and currents in the northern East China Sea on the basis of the grain size analysis. The results show that grain size distribution of suspended sediment is controlled by the currents. Suspended sediment in the littoral water is finer than those in the open sea currents. Grain size distribution of surface sediment is affected by the sea currents to some extent. And the grain size of suspended sediment and surface sediment do not agree with each other in positions.

  1. US power plant sites at risk of future sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bierkandt, R.; Auffhammer, M.; Levermann, A.

    2015-12-01

    Unmitigated greenhouse gas emissions may increase global mean sea-level by about 1 meter during this century. Such elevation of the mean sea-level enhances the risk of flooding of coastal areas. We compute the power capacity that is currently out-of-reach of a 100-year coastal flooding but will be exposed to such a flood by the end of the century for different US states, if no adaptation measures are taken. The additional exposed capacity varies strongly among states. For Delaware it is 80% of the mean generated power load. For New York this number is 63% and for Florida 43%. The capacity that needs additional protection compared to today increases by more than 250% for Texas, 90% for Florida and 70% for New York. Current development in power plant building points towards a reduced future exposure to sea-level rise: proposed and planned power plants are less exposed than those which are currently operating. However, power plants that have been retired or canceled were less exposed than those operating at present. If sea-level rise is properly accounted for in future planning, an adaptation to sea-level rise may be costly but possible.

  2. How Much Are Floridians Willing to Pay for Protecting Sea Turtles from Sea Level Rise?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamed, Ahmed; Madani, Kaveh; Von Holle, Betsy; Wright, James; Milon, J. Walter; Bossick, Matthew

    2016-01-01

    Sea level rise (SLR) is posing a great inundation risk to coastal areas. Some coastal nesting species, including sea turtle species, have experienced diminished habitat from SLR. Contingent valuation method (CVM) was used in an effort to assess the economic loss impacts of SLR on sea turtle nesting habitats for Florida coasts; and to elicit values of willingness to pay (WTP) of Central Florida residents to implement certain mitigation strategies, which would protect Florida's east coast sea turtle nesting areas. Using the open-ended and dichotomous choice CVM, we sampled residents of two Florida communities: Cocoa Beach and Oviedo. We estimated the WTP of households from these two cities to protect sea turtle habitat to be between 42 and 57 per year for 5 years. Additionally, we attempted to assess the impact of the both the respondents' demographics and their perception toward various situations on their WTP value. Findings include a negative correlation between the age of a respondent and the probability of an individual willing to pay the hypothetical WTP amount. We found that WTP of an individual was not dependent on prior knowledge of the effects of SLR on sea turtle habitat. The greatest indicators of whether or not an individual was willing to pay to protect sea turtle habitat were the respondents' perception regarding the trustworthiness and efficiency of the party which will implement the conservation measures and their confidence in the conservation methods used. Respondents who perceive sea turtles having an effect on their life were also more likely to pay.

  3. Modeling River Networks in the Continental Shelf during Sea Level Cycles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fagherazzi, S.; Wiberg, P. L.

    2003-12-01

    Several processes influence the development of fluvial networks in the continental shelf during sea level low stands. In order to understand the specific role of each process and quantify its influence on channel formation and incision, the Detachment Limited Model (DeLiM) (Howard, 1994) has been applied to several shelf configurations and with different sea-level curves. The computer model incorporates deltaic deposition on the continental shelf as well as sea-level oscillations and is parameterized with Virginia coastal plain data. Simulations show that the major factor controlling incision and channel development is the tendency of streams to reach an equilibrium (graded) configuration. If, for a given river discharge and shelf slope, the sediment load is less than that required to be at grade, channel incision will occur in the exposed shelf until the river long profile is in equilibrium with the current sea level (base level). The geometry and thickness of sediments deposited in deltas and estuaries have a minor influence on the total channel incision, but are of fundamental importance for the spatial development of the channel network. Model results show that the detailed structure of sea level oscillations is important for sediment redistribution and channel changes. Conceptual models that consider a mere succession of sea level high stands and low stands are oversimplified and miss the complex response of the system to gradual sea level oscillations. The initial shelf topography strongly characterizes the future network development. During the simulations the drainage network is initially strongly fragmented, but gradually becomes integrated through depression infilling and dissection of steep scarps. Finally the role of coastal processes is of crucial importance for sediment redistribution and shelf topography modification during sea-level oscillations.

  4. Long-period sea-level variations in the Mediterranean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zerbini, Susanna; Raicich, Fabio; Bruni, Sara; del Conte, Sara; Errico, Maddalena; Prati, Claudio; Santi, Efisio

    2016-04-01

    Since the beginning of its long-lasting lifetime, the Wegener initiative has devoted careful consideration to studying sea-level variations/changes across the Mediterranean Sea. Our study focuses on several long-period sea-level time series (from end of 1800 to 2012) acquired in the Mediterranean by tide gauge stations. In general, the analysis and interpretation of these data sets can provide an important contribution to research on climate change and its impacts. We have analyzed the centennial sea-level time series of six fairly well documented tide gauges. They are: Marseille, in France, Alicante in Spain, Genoa, Trieste, Venice and Marina di Ravenna (formerly Porto Corsini), in Italy. The data of the Italian stations of Marina di Ravenna and Venice clearly indicate that land subsidence is responsible for most of the observed rate of relative sea level rise. It is well known that, in the two areas, subsidence is caused by both natural processes and human activities. For these two stations, using levelling data of benchmarks at, and/or close to, the tide gauges, and for the recent years, also GPS and InSAR height time series, modelling of the long-period non-linear behavior of subsidence was successfully accomplished. After removing the land vertical motions, the estimate of the linear long-period sea-level rise at all six stations yielded remarkably consistent values, between +1,2 and +1,3 mm/yr, with associated errors ranging from ±0,2 to ±0,3 mm/yr (95% confidence interval), which also account for the statistical autocorrelation of the time series. These trends in the Mediterranean area are lower than the global mean rate of 1,7±0,2 mm/yr (1901-2010) presented by the IPCC in its 5th Assessment Report; however, they are in full agreement with a global mean sea-level rise estimate, over the period 1901-1990, recently published by Hay et al. (2015, doi:10.1038/nature14093) and obtained using probabilistic techniques that combine sea-level records with physics

  5. Holocene sea level, a semi-empirical contemplation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bittermann, Klaus; Kemp, Andrew; Vermeer, Martin; Rahmstorf, Stefan

    2017-04-01

    Holocene eustatic sea level from approximately -10,000-1800 CE was characterized by an increase of about 60 m, with the rate progressively slowing down until sea level almost stabilizes between 500-1800 CE. Global and northern-hemisphere temperatures rose from the last glacial termination until the 'Holocene Optimum'. From there, up to the start of the recent anthropogenic rise, they almost steadily decline. How are the sea-level and temperature evolutions linked? We investigate this with a semi-empirical sea-level model. We found that, due to the nature of Milankovitch forcing, northern-hemisphere temperature (we used the Greenland temperature by Vinther et al., 2009) is a better model driver than global mean temperature because the evolving mass of northern-hemisphere land ice was the dominant cause of Holocene global sea-level trends. The adjustment timescale for this contribution is 1200 years (900-1500 years; 90% confidence interval). To fit the observed sea-level history, the model requires a small additional constant rate (Bittermann 2016). This rate turns out to be of the same order of magnitude as reconstructions of Antarctic sea-level contributions (Briggs et al. 2014, Golledge et al. 2014). In reality this contribution is unlikely to be constant but rather has a dominant timescale that is large compared to the time considered. We thus propose that Holocene sea level can be described by a linear combination of a temperature driven rate, which becomes negative in the late Holocene (as Northern Hemisphere ice masses are diminished), and a positive, approximately constant term (possibly from Antarctica), which starts to dominate from the middle of the Holocene until the start of industrialization. Bibliography: Bittermann, K. 2016. Semi-empirical sea-level modelling. PhD Thesis University of Potsdam. Briggs, R.D., Pollard, D., & Tarasov, L. 2014. A data-constrained large ensemble analysis of Antarctic evolution since the Eemian. Quaternary science reviews

  6. Probabilistic projection of sea-level change along the world's coastlines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Perrette

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Climate change causes global mean sea level to rise due to thermal expansion of seawater and loss of land ice from mountain glaciers, ice caps and ice-sheets. Locally, sea-level changes can strongly deviate from the global mean due to ocean dynamics. In addition, gravitational adjustments redistribute seawater away from shrinking ice masses, an effect currently not incorporated in climate models. Here, we provide probabilistic projections of sea level changes along the world's coastlines for the end of the 21st century under the new RCP emission scenarios, taking into account uncertainties across the cause-effect chain from greenhouse-gas emissions to ocean heat uptake and regional land-ice melt. At low latitudes, especially in the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific, sea level will likely rise more than the global mean (mostly by 10–20%, but up to 45% in Tokyo area. Around the North Atlantic and the North-Eastern Pacific coasts, sea level will rise less than the global average or, in some rare cases, even fall. Our probabilistic regional sea level projections provide an improved basis for coastal impact analysis and infrastructure planning for adaptation to climate change.

  7. Development of sea level rise scenarios for climate change assessments of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doyle, Thomas W.; Day, Richard H.; Michot, Thomas C.

    2010-01-01

    Rising sea level poses critical ecological and economical consequences for the low-lying megadeltas of the world where dependent populations and agriculture are at risk. The Mekong Delta of Vietnam is one of many deltas that are especially vulnerable because much of the land surface is below mean sea level and because there is a lack of coastal barrier protection. Food security related to rice and shrimp farming in the Mekong Delta is currently under threat from saltwater intrusion, relative sea level rise, and storm surge potential. Understanding the degree of potential change in sea level under climate change is needed to undertake regional assessments of potential impacts and to formulate adaptation strategies. This report provides constructed time series of potential sea level rise scenarios for the Mekong Delta region by incorporating (1) aspects of observed intra- and inter-annual sea level variability from tide records and (2) projected estimates for different rates of regional subsidence and accelerated eustacy through the year 2100 corresponding with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate models and emission scenarios.

  8. A 500 kyr record of global sea-level oscillations in the Gulf of Lion, Mediterranean Sea: new insights into MIS 3 sea-level variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Frigola

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Borehole PRGL1-4 drilled in the upper slope of the Gulf of Lion provides an exceptional record to investigate the impact of late Pleistocene orbitally-driven glacio-eustatic sea-level oscillations on the sedimentary outbuilding of a river fed continental margin. High-resolution grain-size and geochemical records supported by oxygen isotope chronostratigraphy allow reinterpreting the last 500 ka upper slope seismostratigraphy of the Gulf of Lion. Five main sequences, stacked during the sea-level lowering phases of the last five glacial-interglacial 100-kyr cycles, form the upper stratigraphic outbuilding of the continental margin. The high sensitivity of the grain-size record down the borehole to sea-level oscillations can be explained by the great width of the Gulf of Lion continental shelf. Sea level driven changes in accommodation space over the shelf cyclically modified the depositional mode of the entire margin. PRGL1-4 data also illustrate the imprint of sea-level oscillations at millennial time-scale, as shown for Marine Isotopic Stage 3, and provide unambiguous evidence of relative high sea-levels at the onset of each Dansgaard-Oeschger Greenland warm interstadial. The PRGL1-4 grain-size record represents the first evidence for a one-to-one coupling of millennial time-scale sea-level oscillations associated with each Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle.

  9. A 500 kyr record of global sea level oscillations in the Gulf of Lion, Mediterranean Sea: new insights into MIS 3 sea level variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Frigola

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Borehole PRGL1-4 drilled in the upper slope of the Gulf of Lion provides an exceptional record to investigate the impact of Late Pleistocene orbitally-driven glacio-eustatic sea level oscillations on the sedimentary outbuilding of a river fed continental margin. High-resolution grain-size and geochemical records supported by oxygen isotope chronostratigraphy allow reinterpreting the last 500 ka upper slope seismostratigraphy of the Gulf of Lion which consists of five main sequences stacked during the sea level lowering phases of the last five glacial-interglacial 100-kyr cycles. The high sensitivity to sea level oscillations of the grain-size record along the borehole, favoured by the large width of the Gulf of Lion continental shelf, demonstrates that sea level driven changes in accommodation space over the shelf are able to cyclically modify the depositional mode of the entire margin. PRGL1-4 data also illustrate the imprint of sea level oscillations at millennial scale, as shown for Marine Isotopic Stage 3, and provide unambiguous evidence of relative high sea levels at the onset of each Dansgaard-Oeschger Greenland warm interstadial. The PRGL1-4 grain-size record represents the first evidence ever for a one-to-one coupling of millennial-scale sea level oscillations associated with each Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle.

  10. Sea Level Rise and Subsidence in the Gulf of Thailand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niemnil, Sommart

    In the Thailand -EC GEO2TECDI-SONG Project we investigate the sea level change and vertical land motion in Thailand. First, Bangkok is situated in river delta and average height is closed to sea level. Second, it is subsiding due to ground water extraction. Third, it is experiencing post-seismic motion due to nearby mega thrust earthquakes and fourth, it suffers from rising of sea levels due to global climate change. This poses a serious threat on Thai society and economy. Before mitigation methods can be devised we aim at charting, qualifying and quantifying all contributing effects by the use of satellite altimetry, GNSS, InSAR techniques and combining results with the in situ observations like tide gauge and with geophysical modeling. Adding GPS based vertical land motion to the tide gauge sea level registration reveals the absolute sea level change, which is nicely confirmed by altimetry. We find an average absolute rise of 3.5 mm/yr + 0.7, but nears mouth of Chao Praya River (Bangkok) and the Mekong delta (Ho Chi Min City), this mounts to 4 to 5 mm/yr, faster than global average. This is reinforced when accounting for the tectonic subsidence that resulted from 2004 9.1Mw Sumatra/Andaman earthquake; from 2005 onwards we find downfall in the order of 10 mm/yr. RADARSAT InSAR analyses show subsidence rates up to 25 mm/yr at many places along coastal Bangkok.

  11. Cenozoic sea level and the rise of modern rimmed atolls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toomey, Michael; Ashton, Andrew; Raymo, Maureen E.; Perron, J. Taylor

    2016-01-01

    Sea-level records from atolls, potentially spanning the Cenozoic, have been largely overlooked, in part because the processes that control atoll form (reef accretion, carbonate dissolution, sediment transport, vertical motion) are complex and, for many islands, unconstrained on million-year timescales. Here we combine existing observations of atoll morphology and corelog stratigraphy from Enewetak Atoll with a numerical model to (1) constrain the relative rates of subsidence, dissolution and sedimentation that have shaped modern Pacific atolls and (2) construct a record of sea level over the past 8.5 million years. Both the stratigraphy from Enewetak Atoll (constrained by a subsidence rate of ~ 20 m/Myr) and our numerical modeling results suggest that low sea levels (50–125 m below present), and presumably bi-polar glaciations, occurred throughout much of the late Miocene, preceding the warmer climate of the Pliocene, when sea level was higher than present. Carbonate dissolution through the subsequent sea-level fall that accompanied the onset of large glacial cycles in the late Pliocene, along with rapid highstand constructional reef growth, likely drove development of the rimmed atoll morphology we see today.

  12. Sea Level Change: Is the Volume of the Ocean Changing or Is It Redistributing?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchum, G. T.; Thompson, P. R.; Merrifield, M. A.

    2012-12-01

    Global sea level change is due to changes in the ocean volume, which are in turn primarily due to changes in the globally averaged density of the ocean and ice melt from the land. Regional to local sea level changes reflect global changes as well as redistributions of volume due to ocean dynamics and land motions. Determining whether global sea level change is accelerating requires that we disentangle these regional and local signals from the true global volume changes. Given the current length of our time series determining acceleration is problematic, largely because of substantial spatial and temporal changes in the global sea level field due to ocean-atmosphere dynamics. We will review our work showing that global sea level reconstructions are sensitive to the weightings applied to the tide gauge data. We will also review basin-scale changes in sea level in the North Atlantic and the Tropical Pacific that are clearly wind-driven. These are important for two reasons. First, these signals mask the (presently) small global signal, and second, these signals present a statistical challenge for determining the acceleration of the global volume change rate. The obvious question is how well we can expect to estimate the sea level rise acceleration rate given the observed red noise character, in time and space, of the volume redistribution signals. We will end the presentation with various simulations of our ability to determine global sea level change acceleration that take into account reasonable estimates of decadal redistributions of ocean volume. The net result is that most recent attempts to determine acceleration are seriously flawed. On the positive side, we will provide estimates of how long it might take to make more reliable estimates.

  13. Potential effects of sea-level rise on coastal wetlands in southeastern Louisiana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glick, Patty; Clough, Jonathan; Polaczyk, Amy; Couvillion, Brady R.; Nunley, Brad

    2013-01-01

    Coastal Louisiana wetlands contain about 37% of the estuarine herbaceous marshes in the conterminous United States. The long-term stability of coastal wetlands is often a function of a wetland's ability to maintain elevation equilibrium with mean sea level through processes such as primary production and sediment accretion. However, Louisiana has sustained more coastal wetland loss than all other states in the continental United States combined due to a combination of natural and anthropogenic factors, including sea-level rise. This study investigates the potential impact of current and accelerating sea-level rise rates on key coastal wetland habitats in southeastern Louisiana using the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM). Model calibration was conducted using a 1956–2007 observation period and hindcasting results predicted 35% versus observed 39% total marsh loss. Multiple sea-level-rise scenarios were then simulated for the period of 2007–2100. Results indicate a range of potential wetland losses by 2100, from an additional 2,188.97 km2 (218,897 ha, 9% of the 2007 wetland area) under the lowest sea-level-rise scenario (0.34 m), to a potential loss of 5,875.27 km2 (587,527 ha, 24% of the 2007 wetland area) in the highest sea-level-rise scenario (1.9 m). Model results suggest that one area of particular concern is the potential vulnerability of the region's baldcypress-water tupelo (Taxodium distichum-Nyssa aquatica) swamp habitat, much of which is projected to become permanently flooded (affecting regeneration) under all modeled scenarios for sea-level rise. These findings will aid in the development of ecosystem management plans that support the processes and conditions that result in sustainable coastal ecosystems.

  14. Satellite Altimetry-Based Sea Level at Global and Regional Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ablain, M.; Legeais, J. F.; Prandi, P.; Marcos, M.; Fenoglio-Marc, L.; Dieng, H. B.; Benveniste, J.; Cazenave, A.

    2017-01-01

    Since the beginning of the 1990s, sea level is routinely measured using high-precision satellite altimetry. Over the past 25 years, several groups worldwide involved in processing the satellite altimetry data regularly provide updates of sea level time series at global and regional scales. Here we present an ongoing effort supported by the European Space Agency (ESA) Climate Change Initiative Programme for improving the altimetry-based sea level products. Two main objectives characterize this enterprise: (1) to make use of ESA missions (ERS-1 and 2 and Envisat) in addition to the so-called `reference' missions like TOPEX/Poseidon and the Jason series in the computation of the sea level time series, and (2) to improve all processing steps in order to meet the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) accuracy requirements defined for a set of 50 Essential Climate Variables, sea level being one of them. We show that improved geophysical corrections, dedicated processing algorithms, reduction of instrumental bias and drifts, and careful linkage between missions led to improved sea level products. Regarding the long-term trend, the new global mean sea level record accuracy now approaches the GCOS requirements (of 0.3 mm/year). Regional trend uncertainty has been reduced by a factor of 2, but orbital and wet tropospheric corrections errors still prevent fully reaching the GCOS accuracy requirement. Similarly at the interannual time scale, the global mean sea level still displays 2-4 mm errors that are not yet fully understood. The recent launch of new altimetry missions (Sentinel-3, Jason-3) and the inclusion of data from currently flying missions (e.g., CryoSat, SARAL/AltiKa) may provide further improvements to this important climate record.

  15. The Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level: Recent Improvements in Data Access and Storage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, A. P.; Bradshaw, E.; Gordon, K.; Holgate, S. J.; Jevrejeva, S.; Rickards, L. J.; Tamisiea, M.; Woodworth, P. L.

    2010-05-01

    The Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) is the internationally recognised global sea level databank for long term sea level change information from tide gauges. Established in 1933, the PSMSL continues to be responsible for the collection, publication, analysis and interpretation of sea level data. The PSMSL was formerly a member of the Federation of Astronomical and Geophysical Data Analysis (FAGS), and is currently being incorporated into the new World Data System (WDS) of the International Council for Science (ICSU). In addition, the PSMSL has close links with the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission's (IOC's) Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS). Currently the PSMSL databank holds over 58,000 station years of data from over 2,000 stations and in the region of 200 authorities worldwide. Data undergo careful quality control, including ensuring year to year continuity, before addition to the databank. Where possible, data is reduced to a common datum for time series analysis. In 2007 the PSMSL combined its monthly mean sea level activities with the higher frequency data collection from GLOSS station sites conducted by the British Oceanographic Data Centre (BODC). The PSMSL also attempts to stimulate the development of tide gauge networks at national, regional and global level. It provides training and technical advice to national sea level authorities, mainly through its work with GLOSS. It has also been closely involved in the installation and continued operation of twelve gauges in Africa and the Western Indian Ocean as part of the ODINAFRICA and Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System programmes. The PSMSL data storage systems have recently been redesigned in order to increase data integrity and take advantage of recent developments in database technology. A suite of graphical user interfaces have been developed to facilitate maintenance and quality control of the database by PSMSL staff. In addition, a new interactive data portal has been

  16. Sea-level rise risks to coastal cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholls, Robert J.

    2017-04-01

    Understanding the consequence of sea-level rise for coastal cities has long lead times and huge political implications. Civilisation has emerged and developed during a period of several thousand years during which in geological terms sea level has been unusually stable. We have now moved out of this period and the challenge will be to develop a long-term proactive assessment approach to manage this challenge. In 2005 there were 136 coastal cities with a population exceeding one million people and a collective population of 400 million people. All these coastal cities are threatened by flooding from the sea to varying degrees and these risks are increasing due to growing exposure (people and assets), rising sea levels due to climate change, and in some cities, significant coastal subsidence due to human agency (drainage and groundwater withdrawals from susceptible soils). In these cities we wish to avoid major flood events, with associated damage and potentially deaths and ultimately decline of the cities. Flood risks grow with sea-level rise as it raises extreme sea levels. As sea levels continue to rise, protection will have to be progressively upgraded. Even with this, the magnitude of losses when flood events do occur would increase as coastal cities expand, and water depths and hence unit damage increase with sea-level rise/subsidence. This makes it critical to also prepare for larger coastal flood disasters than we experience today and raises questions on the limits to adaptation. There is not an extensive literature or significant empirical information on the limits to adaptation in coastal cities. These limits are not predictable in a formal sense - while the rise in mean sea level raises the likelihood of a catastrophic flood, extreme events are what cause damage and trigger a response, be it abandonment, a defence upgrade or something else. There are several types of potential limits that could be categorised into three broad types: • Physical

  17. Impact of Altimeter Data Processing on Sea Level Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clara Lázaro

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available This study addresses the impact of satellite altimetry data processing on sea levelstudies at regional scale, with emphasis on the influence of various geophysical correctionsand satellite orbit on the structure of the derived interannual signal and sea level trend. Thework focuses on the analysis of TOPEX data for a period of over twelve years, for threeregions in the North Atlantic: Tropical (0o≤φ≤25o, Sub-Tropical (25o≤φ≤50o and Sub-Arctic (50o≤φ≤65o. For this analysis corrected sea level anomalies with respect to a meansea surface model have been derived from the GDR-Ms provided by AVISO by applyingvarious state-of-the-art models for the geophysical corrections. Results show that sea leveltrend determined from TOPEX altimetry is dependent on the adopted models for the majorgeophysical corrections. The main effects come from the sea state bias (SSB, and from theapplication or not of the inverse barometer (IB correction. After an appropriate modellingof the TOPEX A/B bias, the two analysed SSB models induce small variations in sea leveltrend, from 0.0 to 0.2 mm/yr, with a small latitude dependence. The difference in sea leveltrend determined by a non IB-corrected series and an IB-corrected one has a strong regionaldependence with large differences in the shape of the interannual signals and in the derivedlinear trends. The use of two different drift models for the TOPEX Microwave Radiometer(TMR has a small but non negligible effect on the North Atlantic sea level trend of about0.1 mm/yr. The interannual signals of sea level time series derived with the NASA and theCNES orbits respectively, show a small departure in the middle of the series, which has noimpact on the derived sea level trend. These results strike the need for a continuousimprovement in the modelling of the various effects that influence the altimetermeasurement.

  18. Spatial-temporal analysis of sea level changes in China seas and neighboring oceans by merged altimeter data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yao; Zhou, Bin; Yu, Zhifeng; Lei, Hui; Sun, Jiamin; Zhu, Xingrui; Liu, Congjin

    2017-01-01

    The knowledge of sea level changes is critical important for social, economic and scientific development in coastal areas. Satellite altimeter makes it possible to observe long term and large scale dynamic changes in the ocean, contiguous shelf seas and coastal zone. In this paper, 1993-2015 altimeter data of Topex/Poseidon and its follow-on missions is used to get a time serious of continuous and homogeneous sea level anomaly gridding product. The sea level rising rate is 0.39 cm/yr in China Seas and the neighboring oceans, 0.37 cm/yr in the Bo and Yellow Sea, 0.29 cm/yr in the East China Sea and 0.40 cm/yr in the South China Sea. The mean sea level and its rising rate are spatial-temporal non-homogeneous. The mean sea level shows opposite characteristics in coastal seas versus open oceans. The Bo and Yellow Sea has the most significant seasonal variability. The results are consistent with in situ data observation by the Nation Ocean Agency of China. The coefficient of variability model is introduced to describe the spatial-temporal variability. Results show that the variability in coastal seas is stronger than that in open oceans, especially the seas off the entrance area of the river, indicating that the validation of altimeter data is less reasonable in these seas.

  19. Tracking multidecadal trends in sea level using coral microatolls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Majewski, Jedrzej; Pham, Dat; Meltzner, Aron; Switzer, Adam; Horton, Benjamin; Heng, Shu Yun; Warrick, David

    2015-04-01

    Tracking multidecadal trends in sea level using coral microatolls Jędrzej M. Majewski 1, Dat T. Pham1, Aron J. Meltzner 1, Adam D. Switzer 1, Benjamin P. Horton2, Shu Yun Heng1, David Warrick3, 1 Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 2 Department of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA 3 Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA Coral microatolls can be used to study relative sea-level change at multidecadal timescales associated with vertical land movements, climate induced sea-level rise and other oceanographic phenomena such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) with the assumption that the highest level of survival (HLS) of coral microatolls track sea level over the course of their lifetimes. In this study we compare microatoll records covering from as early as 1883 through 2013, from two sites in Indonesia, with long records (>20 years) from proximal tide gauges, satellite altimetry, and other sea-level reconstructions. We compared the HLS time series derived from open-ocean and moated (or ponded) microatolls on tectonically stable Belitung Island and a potentially tectonically active setting in Mapur Island, with sea-level reconstructions for 1950-2011. The sea-level reconstructions are based on ground and satellite measurements, combining a tide model with the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) model. Our results confirm that open-ocean microatolls do track low water levels at multi decadal time scales and can be used as a proxy for relative sea level (RSL) over time. However, microatolls that are even partially moated are unsuitable and do not track RSL; rather, their growth patterns likely reflect changes in the elevation of the sill of the local pond, as reported by earlier authors. Our ongoing efforts will include an attempt to recognize similarities in moated

  20. A new perspective on global mean sea level (GMSL) acceleration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Phil J.

    2016-06-01

    The vast body of contemporary climate change science is largely underpinned by the premise of a measured acceleration from anthropogenic forcings evident in key climate change proxies -- greenhouse gas emissions, temperature, and mean sea level. By virtue, over recent years, the issue of whether or not there is a measurable acceleration in global mean sea level has resulted in fierce, widespread professional, social, and political debate. Attempts to measure acceleration in global mean sea level (GMSL) have often used comparatively crude analysis techniques providing little temporal instruction on these key questions. This work proposes improved techniques to measure real-time velocity and acceleration based on five GMSL reconstructions spanning the time frame from 1807 to 2014 with substantially improved temporal resolution. While this analysis highlights key differences between the respective reconstructions, there is now more robust, convincing evidence of recent acceleration in the trend of GMSL.

  1. Investigation of sea level trends and the effect of the north atlantic oscillation (NAO) on the black sea and the eastern mediterranean sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozgenc Aksoy, Aysegul

    2017-07-01

    The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has significant effects on sea levels, weather, and climate. In this study, the sea level trends and the effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation Indices (NAOI) on annual mean sea level data were assessed for the Black Sea and the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. The trends of sea level and NAOI were determined using Mann-Kendall dimensionless z statistics. Generally, upward sea level trends were detected for the Black Sea and the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. In the Black Sea, significant and continuous upward trends were detected after the year 1950. Weaker trends were detected for the Eastern part of the Mediterranean Sea. Sea level trends were correlated with trends in NAO indices; negative correlations were detected for the Black Sea, whereas positive correlations were found for the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. Paired t tests were performed to determine the turning points for all sea level data sets. The value of t was positive for all data sets, which means that the mean value of the data set before the turning point was smaller than the mean value of the data set after the turning point.

  2. Cellular-based sea level gauge

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Desai, R.G.P.; Joseph, A.

    , and cellular modem are mounted on the top portion of this structure. The pressure sensor and the logger are continuously powered on, and their electrical current consumption is 30 and 15 mA respectively. The cellular modem consumes 15 mA and 250 mA during... of reportage, data size, recurring costs and so forth. Broadband technology has been identified as one that can be used optimally for real-time reporting of data because of its inherent advantages such as a continuous two-way connection that allows high...

  3. Detecting sea-level hazards: Simple regression-based methods for calculating the acceleration of sea level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doran, Kara S.; Howd, Peter A.; Sallenger,, Asbury H.

    2016-01-04

    This report documents the development of statistical tools used to quantify the hazard presented by the response of sea-level elevation to natural or anthropogenic changes in climate and ocean circulation. A hazard is a physical process (or processes) that, when combined with vulnerability (or susceptibility to the hazard), results in risk. This study presents the development and comparison of new and existing sea-level analysis methods, exploration of the strengths and weaknesses of the methods using synthetic time series, and when appropriate, synthesis of the application of the method to observed sea-level time series. These reports are intended to enhance material presented in peer-reviewed journal articles where it is not always possible to provide the level of detail that might be necessary to fully support or recreate published results.

  4. Interannual sea level variability in the Eastern Indian Ocean and Southern South China Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohan, S. S.; Vethamony, P.

    2016-12-01

    Sea level anomalies (SLAs) derived from satellite observations (over a period of 21 years) and tide gauge data compiled from 24 stations from the Eastern Indian Ocean (EIO) and southern South China Sea (SCS) have been analysed to study the inter-annual variability of SLAs in the EIO and southern SCS. To examine the seasonality in interannual variability, 3 months to 7 years band pass filtered non-seasonal SLAs were considered. A large fraction of interannual SLA variability in the south eastern SCS is linked to ENSO and rest of the region is characterized by small scale interannual variations. Analysis of both tide gauge and altimetry data confirms that interannual sea level anomalies in the SCS shows seasonality with pronounced variation occurring during winter and fall seasons. Both tide gauge and altimetry data show that 40% of interannual SLAs at Malacca Strait and southeastern SCS and 50% at Java Sea could be explained by both ENSO and IOD. Malacca Strait and Java Sea SLAs at interannual scale show coherent variability with that of eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. Regional correlation pattern and Wavelet power spectrum of SLAs at Java Sea shows similar dominant periodicities as in the Malacca Strait. Strong oscillations associated with climate modes are centered at 2-5 year period. Interannual SLAs at southeastern SCS show the importance of western Pacific on sea level modulation through the Luzon and Mindoro Straits. Wind variations largely explain the interannual SLA variation in the EIO and southern SCS. Interannual zonal wind variations in the equatorial Indian Ocean induce SLA variations in the Malacca Strait and Java Sea. Remote and local winds that drive interannual variability of SLAs in the EIO and southeastern SCS are associated with both ENSO and IOD events.

  5. Mean and extreme sea level changes in the southwestern Baltic Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Jessica; Patzke, Justus; Dangendorf, Sönke; Arns, Arne; Jensen, Jürgen; Fröhle, Peter

    2016-04-01

    In this contribution an overview over the BMBF project AMSeL_Ostsee (2015-2018) for the assessment of mean and extreme sea level changes over the past 150 years in the southwestern Baltic Sea is presented. We compile several high resolution tide gauge records provided by the Water and Shipping Administration (WSV) along the German Baltic Sea coastline and merge them in internationally available data bases (UHSLC, PSMSL, and data officially available at national authorities). In addition, we make efforts in digitizing historical records to expand the number of available data sets in this complex and vulnerable coastal region. To separate absolute from relative long-term changes in sea level the vertical land motion (VLM) at specific sites is assessed. Possible sources of VLM are independently assessed by using different state-of-the-art approaches, that is: Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) modelled by viscoelastic Earth models, GPS derived VLM, and the difference between tide gauge and nearby satellite altimetry. The VLM corrected tide gauge records are further assessed for linear and non-linear trends as well as possible acceleration/deceleration patterns by applying advanced time series models such as Singular System Analysis (SSA) combined with a Monte-Carlo-Autoregressive-Padding approach (Wahl et al., 2010). These trend assessments are applied to mean and extreme sea levels independently to prove whether observed changes in extremes are either due to an underlying trend on mean sea levels or changes in storminess. References: Wahl, T., Jensen, J., Frank, T. (2011): On analysing sea level rise in the German Bight since 1844, NHESS, 10, 171-179.

  6. A heuristic evaluation of long-term global sea level acceleration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spada, Giorgio; Olivieri, Marco; Galassi, Gaia

    2015-05-01

    In view of the scientific and social implications, the global mean sea level rise (GMSLR) and its possible causes and future trend have been a challenge for so long. For the twentieth century, reconstructions generally indicate a rate of GMSLR in the range of 1.5 to 2.0 mm yr-1. However, the existence of nonlinear trends is still debated, and current estimates of the secular acceleration are subject to ample uncertainties. Here we use various GMSLR estimates published on scholarly journals since the 1940s for a heuristic assessment of global sea level acceleration. The approach, alternative to sea level reconstructions, is based on simple statistical methods and exploits the principles of meta-analysis. Our results point to a global sea level acceleration of 0.54 ± 0.27 mm/yr/century (1σ) between 1898 and 1975. This supports independent estimates and suggests that a sea level acceleration since the early 1900s is more likely than currently believed.

  7. Multiproxy assessment of Holocene relative sea-level changes in the western Mediterranean: sea-level variability and improvements in the definition of the isostatic signal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vacchi, Matteo; Rovere, Alessio; Marriner, Nick; Morhange, Christophe; Spada, Giorgio; Fontana, Alessandro

    2016-04-01

    After the review of 918 radiocarbon dated Relative Sea-Level (RSL) data-points we present here the first quality-controlled database constraining the Holocene sea-level histories of the western Mediterranean Sea (Spain, France, Italy, Slovenia, Croatia, Malta and Tunisia). We reviewed and standardized the geological RSL data-points using a new multi-proxy methodology based on: (1) modern taxa assemblages in Mediterranean lagoons and marshes; (2) beachrock characteristics (cement fabric and chemistry, sedimentary structures); and (3) the modern distribution of Mediterranean fixed biological indicators. These RSL data-points were coupled with the large number of archaeological RSL indicators available for the western Mediterranean. We assessed the spatial variability of RSL histories for 22 regions and compared these with the ICE-5G VM2 GIA model. In the western Mediterranean, RSL rose continuously for the whole Holocene with a sudden slowdown at ~7.5 ka BP and a further deceleration during the last ~4.0 ka BP, after which time observed RSL changes are mainly related to variability in isostatic adjustment. The sole exception is southern Tunisia, where data show evidence of a mid-Holocene high-stand compatible with the isostatic impacts of the melting history of the remote Antarctic ice sheet. Our results indicate that late-Holocene sea-level rise was significantly slower than the current one. First estimates of GIA contribution indicate that, at least in the northwestern sector, it accounts at least for the 25-30% of the ongoing sea-level rise recorded by Mediterranean tidal gauges. Such contribution is less constrained at lower latitudes due to the lower quality of the late Holocene index points. Future applications of spatio-temporal statistical techniques are required to better quantify the gradient of the isostatic contribution and to provide improved context for the assessment of 20th century acceleration of Mediterranean sea-level rise.

  8. Land-ice modeling for sea-level prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lipscomb, William H [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2010-06-11

    There has been major progress in ice sheet modeling since IPCC AR4. We will soon have efficient higherorder ice sheet models that can run at ",1 km resolution for entire ice sheets, either standalone or coupled to GeMs. These models should significantly reduce uncertainties in sea-level predictions. However, the least certain and potentially greatest contributions to 21st century sea-level rise may come from ice-ocean interactions, especially in West Antarctica. This is a coupled modeling problem that requires collaboration among ice, ocean and atmosphere modelers.

  9. Uncertainties in sea level projections on twenty-year timescales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vinogradova, Nadya; Davis, James; Landerer, Felix; Little, Chris

    2016-04-01

    Regional decadal changes in sea level are governed by various processes, including ocean dynamics, gravitational and solid earth responses, mass loss of continental ice, and other local coastal processes. In order to improve predictions and physical attribution in decadal sea level trends, the uncertainties of each processes must be reflected in the sea level calculations. Here we explore uncertainties in predictions of the decadal and bi-decadal changes in regional sea level induced by the changes in ocean dynamics and associated redistribution of heat and freshwater (often referred to as dynamic sea level). Such predictions are typically based on the solutions from coupled atmospheric and oceanic general circulation models, including a suite of climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercompasion Project (CMIP5). Designed to simulate long-term ocean variability in response to warming climate due to increasing green-house gas concentration ("forced" response), CMIP5 are deficient in simulating variability at shorter time scales. In contrast, global observations of sea level are available during a relatively short time span (e.g., twenty-year altimetry records), and are dominated by an "unforced" variability that occurs freely (internally) within the climate system. This makes it challenging to examine how well observations compare with model simulations. Therefore, here we focus on patterns and spatial characteristics of projected twenty-year trends in dynamic sea level. Based on the ensemble of CMIP5 models, each comprising a 240-year run, we compute an envelope of twenty-year rates, and analyze the spread and spatial relationship among predicted rates. An ensemble root-mean-square average exhibits large-scale spatial patterns, with the largest uncertainties found over mid and high latitudes that could be attributed to the changes in wind patterns and buoyancy forcing. To understand and parameterize spatial characteristics of the

  10. Coastal flooding by tropical cyclones and sea-level rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodruff, Jonathan D; Irish, Jennifer L; Camargo, Suzana J

    2013-12-05

    The future impacts of climate change on landfalling tropical cyclones are unclear. Regardless of this uncertainty, flooding by tropical cyclones will increase as a result of accelerated sea-level rise. Under similar rates of rapid sea-level rise during the early Holocene epoch most low-lying sedimentary coastlines were generally much less resilient to storm impacts. Society must learn to live with a rapidly evolving shoreline that is increasingly prone to flooding from tropical cyclones. These impacts can be mitigated partly with adaptive strategies, which include careful stewardship of sediments and reductions in human-induced land subsidence.

  11. Land Sea Level Difference Impacts on Socio-Hydrological System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sung, K.; Yu, D. J.; Oh, W. S.; Sangwan, N.

    2016-12-01

    Allowing moderate shocks can be a new solution that helps to build adaptive capacity in society is a rising issue. In Social-Ecological field, Carpenter et al. (2015) suggested that exposure to short-term variability leads to long term resilience by enlarging safe operating space (SOS). The SOS refers to the boundary of favorable state that ecosystem can maintain resilience without imposing certain conditions (Carpenter et al. 2015). Our work is motivated by defining SOS in socio-hydrological system(SHS) because it can be an alternative way for flood management beyond optimized or robust flood control. In this context, large flood events that make system to cross the SOS should be fully managed, but frequent small floods need to be allowed if the system is located in SOS. Especially, land sea level change is critical factor to change flood resilience since it is one of the most substantial disturbance that changes the entire boundary of SOS. In order to have broader perspective of vulnerability and resilience of the coastal region, it is crucial to understand the land sea level dynamics changed with human activities and natural variances.The risk of land sea level change has been researched , but most of these researches have focused on explain cause and effect of land sea level change, paying little attention to its dynamics interacts with human activities. Thus, an objective of this research is to study dynamics of human work, land sea level change and resilience to flood with SOS approach. Especially, we focus on the case in Ganges-Brahmaputra, Bangladesh where has high vulnerability to flood, and is faced with relatively rapid land sea level change problem. To acheive the goal, this study will develop a stylized model by extending the human - flood interaction model combined with relative sea level difference equation. The model describes the dynamics of flood protection system which is changed by SHS and land sea level chage. we will focus on the aggradation

  12. Sea level measured by tide gauges from global oceans -- the Joint Archive for Sea Level holdings as of October 2015 (NCEI Accession 0019568)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Joint Archive for Sea Level (JASL), a collaboration between the University of Hawaii Sea Level Center and the National Centers for Environmental Information...

  13. Sea level rise projection in the South China Sea from CMIP5 models

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HUANG Chuanjiang; QIAO Fangli

    2015-01-01

    Future potential sea level change in the South China Sea (SCS) is estimated by using 24 CMIP5 models under different representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. By the end of the 21st century (2081–2100 relative to 1986–2005), the multimodel ensemble mean dynamic sea level (DSL) is projected to rise 0.9, 1.6, and 1.1 cm under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, resulting in a total sea level rise (SLR) of 40.9, 48.6, and 64.1 cm in the SCS. It indicates that the SCS will experience a substantial SLR over the 21st century, and the rise is only marginal larger than the global mean SLR. During the same period, the steric sea level (SSL) rise is estimated to be 6.7, 10.0, and 15.3 cm under the three scenarios, respectively, which accounts only for 16%, 21% and 24% of the total SLR in this region. The changes of the SSL in the SCS are almost out of phase with those of the DSL for the three scenarios. The central deep basin has a slightly weak DSL rise, but a strong SSL rise during the 21st century, compared with the north and southwest shelves.

  14. Danish attitudes and reactions to the threat of sea-level rise

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fenger, Jes; Buch, Erik; Jakobsen, Per Roed

    2008-01-01

    movements and projected global accelerated sea-level rise (ASLR) it is estimated that relative sea level will increase by 33-46 cm within the next 100 years-notably in the southwestern part of Denmark. Increased storm intensity may enhance the impacts of this change in water level. Dikes protect about 1100...... km of the coastline and hard structures about 700 km. Soft solutions, especially beach nourishment, are increasingly used. So far direct planning for sea-level rise above the current secular rise has been modest and purely qualitative. The same applies to most new and upgraded coastal infrastructure...... of economic, sociological, and biological interests and options. The general strategy appears to be toward the preservation of a natural coastline, if necessary at the cost of land loss....

  15. Towards quantifying the contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global sea level change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Broeke, M.R.

    2006-01-01

    At present, the mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) and its contribution to global sea level change are poorly known. Current methods to determine AIS mass balance as well as the inherent uncertainties are discussed. Special emphasis is placed on the increasingly important role of regional

  16. Allowances for evolving coastal flood risk under uncertain local sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchanan, M. K.; Kopp, R. E.; Oppenheimer, M.; Tebaldi, C.

    2015-12-01

    Sea-level rise (SLR) causes estimates of flood risk made under the assumption of stationary mean sea level to be biased low. However, adjustments to flood return levels made assuming fixed increases of sea level are also inaccurate when applied to sea level that is rising over time at an uncertain rate. To accommodate both the temporal dynamics of SLR and their uncertainty, we develop an Average Annual Design Life Level (AADLL) metric and associated SLR allowances [1,2]. The AADLL is the flood level corresponding to a time-integrated annual expected probability of occurrence (AEP) under uncertainty over the lifetime of an asset; AADLL allowances are the adjustment from 2000 levels that maintain current risk. Given non-stationary and uncertain SLR, AADLL flood levels and allowances provide estimates of flood protection heights and offsets for different planning horizons and different levels of confidence in SLR projections in coastal areas. Allowances are a function primarily of local SLR and are nearly independent of AEP. Here we employ probabilistic SLR projections [3] to illustrate the calculation of AADLL flood levels and allowances with a representative set of long-duration tide gauges along U.S. coastlines. [1] Rootzen et al., 2014, Water Resources Research 49: 5964-5972. [2] Hunter, 2013, Ocean Engineering 71: 17-27. [3] Kopp et al., 2014, Earth's Future 2: 383-406.

  17. Mid- to Late Holocene Sea-Level Record in French Polynesia, South-Central Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallmann, N.; Camoin, G.; Vella, C.; Eisenhauer, A.; Samankassou, E.; Botella, A.; Milne, G. A.; Fietzke, J.; Dussouillez, P.; Plaine, J.

    2014-12-01

    The Mid- to Late Holocene provides the opportunity to study the coastal response to sea-level change that has a similar amplitude (i.e., a few decimetres up to 1 m) to the sea-level rise that is likely to occur before the end of the current century. Furthermore, this time period provides an important baseline of natural climate variability prior to the industrial revolution. This study aims to reconstruct Mid- to Late Holocene relative sea-level change in French Polynesia by examining coral reef records from ten islands, which represent ideal settings for accurate sea-level change studies because: 1) they can be regarded as tectonically stable during the relevant period (slow subsidence), 2) they are located far from former ice sheets ('far-field'), 3) they are characterized by a low tidal amplitude, and 4) they cover a wide range of latitudes which produces significantly improved constraints on GIA (Glacial Isostatic Adjustment) model parameters. The accurate reconstruction of sea-level change relies on absolute U/Th dating of in situ coral colonies and their accurate positioning via GPS RTK (Real Time Kinematic) measurements with a vertical and horizontal precision of ± 2.5 cm and ~1 cm, respectively. We focus mainly on the analysis of coral microatolls, which are sensitive low-tide recorders, as their vertical accretion is limited by the water level. Their growth patterns allow the reconstruction of low-amplitude and high-frequency sea-level changes on centennial to sub-decadal time scales. A sea-level rise of less than ~1 m is documented between 6 and 3-3.5 ka, and is followed by a gradual fall in sea level that started around 2 ka and persisted until the past few centuries. The reconstructed sea-level curve therefore extends the Tahiti sea-level curve [Deschamps et al., 2012, Nature, 483, 559-564], and is in good agreement with a geophysical model tuned to fit far-field deglacial records [Bassett et al., 2005, Science, 309, 925-928].

  18. A study on Sea Level Change for Coast of Korean Peninsular from Global Warming and Its Influences I

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cho, K.W.; Kim, J.H. [Korea Environment Institute, Seoul (Korea)

    2001-12-01

    The Third Assessment Report(2001) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) concluded that the global warming will be accelerated during the 21st century due to the human activities. The projected warming will increase the steric sea level rise which have large adverse effects on the natural and human systems in the coastal zone. This study intends to assess the sea level change and potential impacts of the future sea level rise on the coastal zone of the Korean Peninsula in which much socioeconomic activities have been already occurred. The contents of the present study include reviews on climate change and its impact, assessments of the current and future sea level change in the global scale and seas ne,ar Korea, and impact assessment methodology. The second year study(2002) will be focused on the impact assessment on the coastal zone of the Korea, especially on the inundation problem on human dimension due to the steric sea level rise, storm surge, and tide. Based on the tide gauge data, IPCC(2001) assessed the global average sea level rise during the 20th century is in the range of 10{approx}20cm, which is higher than that of 19th century. The contributing elements to the sea level rise are in the order of ocean thermal expansion, melting of glacier, mass balance change of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, and surface and ground water storage and permafrost change. The satellite altimeter data during l990s shows higher trend than the mean trend of tide gauge data during 20th century. The recent high trend of the sea level rise by the altimetry is not clear whether it represents the recent acceleration of the global sea level the differences of the two observation methods, or short observation period of altimetry. In the 21st century, the global mean sea level is projected to increase much due to the acceleration of the warming. Based on the 35 IPCC emission scenarios, the sea level rise in the 21st century will be in the range of 9{approx}88

  19. Revisiting sea level changes in the North Sea during the Anthropocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jensen, Jürgen; Dangendorf, Sönke; Wahl, Thomas; Niehüser, Sebastian

    2016-04-01

    The North Sea is one of the best instrumented ocean basins in the world. Here we revisit sea level changes in the North Sea region from tide gauges, satellite altimetry, hydrographic profiles and ocean reanalysis data from the beginning of the 19th century to present. This includes an overview of the sea level chapter of the North Sea Climate Change Assessment (NOSCCA) complemented by results from more recent investigations. The estimates of long-term changes from tide gauge records are significantly affected by vertical land motion (VLM), which is related to both the large-scale viscoelastic response of the solid earth to ice melting since the last deglaciation and local effects. Removing VLM (estimated from various data sources such as GPS, tide gauge minus altimetry and GIA) significantly reduces the spatial variability of long-term trends in the basin. VLM corrected tide gauge records suggest a transition from relatively moderate changes in the 19th century towards modern trends of roughly 1.5 mm/yr during the 20th century. Superimposed on the long-term changes there is a considerable inter-annual to multi-decadal variability. On inter-annual timescales this variability mainly reflects the barotropic response of the ocean to atmospheric forcing with the inverted barometer effect dominating along the UK and Norwegian coastlines and wind forcing controlling the southeastern part of the basin. The decadal variability is mostly remotely forced and dynamically linked to the North Atlantic via boundary waves in response to long-shore winds along the continental slope. These findings give valuable information about the required horizontal resolution of ocean models and the necessary boundary conditions and are therefore important for the dynamical downscaling of sea level projections for the North Sea coastlines.

  20. An Analysis of the Steric Sea Level Change by Introducing Sea Surface Temperature

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SUN Ruili; LI Lei; LI Peiliang

    2013-01-01

    In this paper,we use the optimum interpolation sea surface temperature (OISST) provided by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) to replace the temperature in the top three layers in the ISHII data,and make use of the modified ISHII temperature data to calculate the thermosteric sea level (called modified steric sea level (SSL) hereafter).We subtract the modified SSL and the steric sea level (called ordinary SSL hereafter) derived from the ISHII temperature and salinity from the steric sea level (SSL) provided by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE),respectively,and find that the rms error of the difference of the former is obviously smaller than that of the latter.Therefore we reach the conclusion that under the assumption that the GRACE SSL is accurate,the modified SSL can reflect the true steric sea level more accurately.Making use of the modified SSL,we can find that the modified SSL in sea areas of different spatial scales shows an obvious rising trend in the upper 0-700 m layer for the period 1982-2006.The global mean SSL rises with a rate of 0.6 mm year-1.The modified SSLs in sea areas of different spatial scales all show obvious oscillations with period of one year.There are oscillations with periods of 4-8 years in global oceans and with periods of 2-7 years in the Pacific.The Empirical Orthogonal Function method is applied to the sea areas of different spatial scales and we find that the first modes all have obvious 1-year period oscillations,the first mode of the global ocean has 4-8 year period oscillations,and that of the Pacific has 2-6 year period oscillations.The spatial distribution of the linear rising trend of the global modified SSL in the upper 0-700 m layer is inhomogeneous with intense regional characteristics.The modified SSL linear trend indicates a zonal dipole in the tropical Pacific,rising in the west and descending in the east.In the North Atlantic,the modified SSL indicates a meridional dipole,rising in

  1. Diurnal variations of serum erythropoietin at sea level and altitude

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klausen, T; Poulsen, T D; Fogh-Andersen, N

    1996-01-01

    This study tested the hypothesis that the diurnal variations of serum-erythropoietin concentration (serum-EPO) observed in normoxia also exist in hypoxia. The study also attempted to investigate the regulation of EPO production during sustained hypoxia. Nine subjects were investigated at sea level...... and during 4 days at an altitude of 4350 m. Median sea level serum-EPO concentration was 6 (range 6-13) U.l-1. Serum-EPO concentration increased after 18 and 42 h at altitude, [58 (range 39-240) and 54 (range 36-340) U.l-1, respectively], and then decreased after 64 and 88 h at altitude [34 (range 18...... in 2, 3 diphosphoglycerate. After 64 h at altitude, six of the nine subjects had down-regulated their serum-EPO concentrations so that median values were three times above those at sea level. These six subjects had significant diurnal variations of serum-EPO concentration at sea level; the nadir...

  2. The sea level fingerprint of recent ice mass fluxes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Bamber

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The sea level contribution from glacial sources has been accelerating during the first decade of the 21st Century (Meier et al., 2007; Velicogna, 2009. This contribution is not distributed uniformly across the world's oceans due to both oceanographic and gravitational effects. We compute the sea level signature for ice mass fluxes due to changes in the gravity field, Earth's rotation and related effects for the nine year period 2000–2008. Mass loss from Greenland results in a relative sea level (RSL reduction for much of North Western Europe and Eastern Canada. RSL rise from this source is concentrated around South America. Losses in West Antarctica marginally compensate for this and produce maxima along the coastlines of North America, Australia and Oceania. The combined far-field pattern of wastage from all ice melt sources, is dominated by losses from the ice sheets and results in maxima at latitudes between 20° N and 40° S across the Pacific and Indian Oceans, affecting particularly vulnerable land masses in Oceania. The spatial pattern of RSL variations from ice mass losses used in this study is time-invariant and cumulative. Thus, sea level rise, based on the gravitational effects from the ice losses considered here, will be amplified for this sensitive region.

  3. Electrophysiological Techniques for Sea Lion Population-Level Audiometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-09-30

    Audiometry James J. Finneran Space and Naval Warfare Systems Center Pacific, Biosciences Division, Code 71510, 53560 Hull Street, San Diego, CA...DATES COVERED 00-00-2009 to 00-00-2009 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Electrophysiological Techniques For Sea Lion Population-Level Audiometry 5a

  4. Arctic Sea Level During the Satellite Altimetry Era

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carret, A.; Johannessen, J. A.; Andersen, Ole Baltazar

    2017-01-01

    from the ORAP5 reanalysis, and Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) space gravimetry data to estimate the steric and mass components. Regional sea-level trends seen in the altimetry map, in particular over the Beaufort Gyre and along the eastern coast of Greenland, are of halosteric origin...

  5. Preparing Coastal Parks for Future Sea Level Rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, R.; Peek, K.

    2012-04-01

    The United States National Park Service (NPS) manages significant stretches of shoreline along the U.S. Atlantic, Pacific, and Gulf Coasts that are vulnerable to long-term sea level rise, shoreline erosion, and storm impacts. These parks have a wide variety of missions— protecting some of the nation's most important natural and cultural resources. The parks must also provide visitor access and education requiring infrastructure such as roads, visitor centers, trails, and buildings for facilities management. Planning for the likely impacts from sea level rise to both resources and infrastructure is a complex balancing act. Using coastal engineering to protect cultural resources or infrastructure may harm natural resources. At the same time, there are clearly some cultural and historical resources that are so critical that they must be protected. In an attempt to begin to attack this dilemma, the NPS Climate Change Response Program has initiated a sea level rise adaptation study that will provide a first-order tally of the park assets at risk to sea level rise and to begin to develop a plan for prioritizing those assets that must be protected, those that can be moved or abandoned, and an examination of how best to approach this without harming critical natural resources. This presentation will discuss the preliminary results of this effort along with several relevant case studies.

  6. Sea Level Activities and Changes on the Islands of the

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Sea Level Activities and Changes on the Islands of the. Western Indian ... that there is a discernible human influence on global climate” ..... reef—based and coral reefs serve as natural .... and the station at Rodrigues, damaged during the.

  7. Integrating conservation costs into sea level rise adaptive conservation prioritization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mingjian Zhu

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Biodiversity conservation requires strategic investment as resources for conservation are often limited. As sea level rises, it is important and necessary to consider both sea level rise and costs in conservation decision making. In this study, we consider costs of conservation in an integrated modeling process that incorporates a geomorphological model (SLAMM, species habitat models, and conservation prioritization (Zonation to identify conservation priorities in the face of landscape dynamics due to sea level rise in the Matanzas River basin of northeast Florida. Compared to conservation priorities that do not consider land costs in the analysis process, conservation priorities that consider costs in the planning process change significantly. The comparison demonstrates that some areas with high conservation values might be identified as lower priorities when integrating economic costs in the planning process and some areas with low conservation values might be identified as high priorities when considering costs in the planning process. This research could help coastal resources managers make informed decisions about where and how to allocate conservation resources more wisely to facilitate biodiversity adaptation to sea level rise.

  8. Sea level trend and variability in the Singapore Strait

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Tkalich, P.; Vethamony, P.; Luu, Q.-H.; Babu, M.T.

    (SODA) ocean reanalysis, J. Geophys. Res., 110, C09006, doi:10.1029/2004JC002817, 2005. Chambers, D. P., Melhaff, C. A., Urban, T. J., Fuji, D., and Nerem, R. S.: Low-frequency variations in global mean sea level: 1950– 2000, J. Geophys. Res., 107, 3026...

  9. Annual mean sea level and its sensitivity to wind climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerkema, Theo; Duran Matute, Matias

    2017-04-01

    Changes in relative mean sea level affect coastal areas in various ways, such as the risk of flooding, the evolution of barrier island systems, or the development of salt marshes. Long-term trends in these changes are partly masked by variability on shorter time scales. Some of this variability, for instance due to wind waves and tides (with the exception of long-period tides), is easily averaged out. In contrast, inter-annual variability is found to be irregular and large, of the order of several decimeters, as is evident from tide gauge records. This is why the climatic trend, typically of a few millimeters per year, can only be reliably identified by examining a record that is long enough to outweigh the inter-annual and decadal variabilities. In this presentation we examine the relation between the annual wind conditions from meteorological records and annual mean sea level along the Dutch coast. To do this, we need reliable and consistent long-term wind records. Some wind records from weather stations in the Netherlands date back to the 19th century, but they are unsuitable for trend analysis because of changes in location, height, surroundings, instrument type or protocol. For this reason, we will use only more recent, homogeneous wind records, from the past two decades. The question then is whether such a relatively short record is sufficient to find a convincing relation with annual mean sea level. It is the purpose of this work to demonstrate that the answer is positive and to suggest methods to find and exploit such a relation. We find that at the Dutch coast, southwesterly winds are dominant in the wind climate, but the west-east direction stands out as having the highest correlation with annual mean sea level. For different stations in the Dutch Wadden Sea and along the coast, we find a qualitatively similar pattern, although the precise values of the correlations vary. The inter-annual variability of mean sea level can already be largely explained by

  10. Mini Solar and Sea Current Power Generation System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almenhali, Abdulrahman; Alshamsi, Hatem; Aljunaibi, Yaser; Almussabi, Dheyab; Alshehhi, Ahmed; Hilal, Hassan Bu

    2017-07-01

    The power demand in United Arab Emirates is increased so that there is a consistent power cut in our region. This is because of high power consumption by factories and also due to less availability of conventional energy resources. Electricity is most needed facility for the human being. All the conventional energy resources are depleting day by day. So we have to shift from conventional to non-conventional energy resources. In this the combination of two energy resources is takes place i.e. wind and solar energy. This process reviles the sustainable energy resources without damaging the nature. We can give uninterrupted power by using hybrid energy system. Basically this system involves the integration of two energy system that will give continuous power. Solar panels are used for converting solar energy and wind turbines are used for converting wind energy into electricity. This electrical power can utilize for various purpose. Generation of electricity will be takes place at affordable cost. This paper deals with the generation of electricity by using two sources combine which leads to generate electricity with affordable cost without damaging the nature balance. The purpose of this project was to design a portable and low cost power system that combines both sea current electric turbine and solar electric technologies. This system will be designed in efforts to develop a power solution for remote locations or use it as another source of green power.

  11. The Influence of Wind and Basin Eddies in Controlling Sea Level Variations in the Coastal Red Sea

    KAUST Repository

    Abualnaja, Yasser

    2015-04-01

    Sea level variations in the central Red Sea coastal zone span a range of roughly 1.2 m. Though relatively small, these water level changes can significantly impact the environment over the shallow reef tops prevalent in the central Red Sea, altering the water depth by a factor or two or more. Roughly half of the coastal sea level variance in central Red Sea is due to elevation changes in an \\'intermediate\\' frequency band, with periods between 2 days and 1 month. We examined the sea level signal in this band using the data from pressure sensors maintained for more than five years at a number of locations in Saudi Arabian coastal waters between 20.1 and 23.5 oN. We find that the intermediate-band sea level variations are strongly correlated with the local wind stress measured at a meteorological buoy. The maximum pressure-wind correlation occurs at wind direction closely aligned with the alongshore orientation and at a lag (wind leading) of 45 hr, which is consistent with the expected response of the coastal sea level to local wind forcing. However, less than half of the sea level variance in the intermediate band is related, through linear correlation, with local wind forcing. Our analysis indicates that the residual coastal sea level signal, not associated with wind forcing, is largely driven remotely by the passage of mesoscale eddies, revealed by satellite altimeter-derived sea level anomaly fields of the central Red Sea. These eddy-driven coastal sea level changes occur on time scales of 10-30 days. They span a range of 0.5 m, and thus constitute an import component of the sea level signal in the coastal Red Sea.

  12. The Influence of Wind and Basin Eddies in Controlling Sea Level Variations in the Coastal Red Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abualnaja, Yasser O.; Churchill, James H.; Nellayaputhenpeedika, Mohammedali; Limeburner, Richard

    2015-04-01

    Sea level variations in the central Red Sea coastal zone span a range of roughly 1.2 m. Though relatively small, these water level changes can significantly impact the environment over the shallow reef tops prevalent in the central Red Sea, altering the water depth by a factor or two or more. Roughly half of the coastal sea level variance in central Red Sea is due to elevation changes in an 'intermediate' frequency band, with periods between 2 days and 1 month. We examined the sea level signal in this band using the data from pressure sensors maintained for more than five years at a number of locations in Saudi Arabian coastal waters between 20.1 and 23.5 oN. We find that the intermediate-band sea level variations are strongly correlated with the local wind stress measured at a meteorological buoy. The maximum pressure-wind correlation occurs at wind direction closely aligned with the alongshore orientation and at a lag (wind leading) of 45 hr, which is consistent with the expected response of the coastal sea level to local wind forcing. However, less than half of the sea level variance in the intermediate band is related, through linear correlation, with local wind forcing. Our analysis indicates that the residual coastal sea level signal, not associated with wind forcing, is largely driven remotely by the passage of mesoscale eddies, revealed by satellite altimeter-derived sea level anomaly fields of the central Red Sea. These eddy-driven coastal sea level changes occur on time scales of 10-30 days. They span a range of 0.5 m, and thus constitute an import component of the sea level signal in the coastal Red Sea.

  13. Effective inundation of continental United States communities with 21st century sea level rise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristina A. Dahl

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Recurrent, tidally driven coastal flooding is one of the most visible signs of sea level rise. Recent studies have shown that such flooding will become more frequent and extensive as sea level continues to rise, potentially altering the landscape and livability of coastal communities decades before sea level rise causes coastal land to be permanently inundated. In this study, we identify US communities that will face effective inundation—defined as having 10% or more of livable land area flooded at least 26 times per year—with three localized sea level rise scenarios based on projections for the 3rd US National Climate Assessment. We present these results in a new, online interactive tool that allows users to explore when and how effective inundation will impact their communities. In addition, we identify communities facing effective inundation within the next 30 years that contain areas of high socioeconomic vulnerability today using a previously published vulnerability index. With the Intermediate-High and Highest sea level rise scenarios, 489 and 668 communities, respectively, would face effective inundation by the year 2100. With these two scenarios, more than half of communities facing effective inundation by 2045 contain areas of current high socioeconomic vulnerability. These results highlight the timeframes that US coastal communities have to respond to disruptive future inundation. The results also underscore the importance of limiting future warming and sea level rise: under the Intermediate-Low scenario, used as a proxy for sea level rise under the Paris Climate Agreement, 199 fewer communities would be effectively inundated by 2100.

  14. The Sedimentary Record of Sea-Level Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coe, Angela L.; Bosence, Dan W. J.; Church, Kevin D.; Flint, Stephen S.; Howell, John A.; Wilson, R. Chris L.

    2003-05-01

    This unique textbook describes how past changes in sea-level can be detected through an analysis of the sedimentary record. In particular, it concentrates on the current sequence stratigraphy model. It explains this model from basics and shows how the model can be applied to both siliciclastic and carbonate successions. Designed for undergraduate and graduate courses in sequence stratigraphy, as well as for professional courses within the petroleum industry, this full-colour textbook includes numerous features that will aid tutors and students alike. These include detailed case studies demonstrating the practical applications of sequence stratigraphy and set-aside boxes providing supplementary and background information. Bulleted questions and answers are interspersed throughout the text, encouraging students to test their understanding of the material. The book is supported by a website hosting sample pages from the book, selected illustrations to download, and worked exercises. Written and developed over a number of years by a team of experts from the Open University Full colour throughout with superb illustrations Contains many pedagogical features that will appeal to students and tutors Supported by a website hosting sample pages, illustrations and worked exercises

  15. Accelerated sea-level rise from West Antarctica.

    OpenAIRE

    Thomas, R; Rignot, E.; Casassa, G; Kanagaratnam, P; Acuña, C; Akins, T; Brecher, H; E Frederick; Gogineni, P.; Krabill, W.; Manizade, S.; Ramamoorthy, H; Rivera, A.; Russell, R.; Sonntag, J

    2004-01-01

    Recent aircraft and satellite laser altimeter surveys of the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica show that local glaciers are discharging about 250 cubic kilometers of ice per year to the ocean, almost 60% more than is accumulated within their catchment basins. This discharge is sufficient to raise sea level by more than 0.2 millimeters per year. Glacier thinning rates near the coast during 2002-2003 are much larger than those observed during the 1990s. Most of these glaciers flow into flo...

  16. Relative sea-level changes during the Holocene in Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rashid, Towhida; Suzuki, S.; Sato, Hiroshi; Monsur, M. H.; Saha, S. K.

    2013-03-01

    This paper presents a reconstruction of the Holocene paleo-environment in the central part of Bangladesh in relation to relative sea-level changes 200 km north of the present coastline. Lithofacies characteristics, mangal peat, diatoms and paleophysiographical evidence were considered to reconstruct the past position and C-14 ages were used to determine the time of formation of the relative sea level during the Holocene. With standard reference datum, the required m.s.l. at the surface of five sections was calculated. The relative sea-level (RSL) curve suggests that Bangladesh experienced two mid-Holocene RSL transgressions punctuated by regressions. The curve shows an RSL highstand at approximately 7500 cal BP, although the height of this highstand could not be determined because the transgressive phase was observed in a bioturbated sand flat facies. The curve shows a regression of approximately 6500 cal BP, and the RSL was considerably lower, perhaps 1-2 m, than the present m.s.l. The abundant marine diatoms and mangrove pollens indicate the highest RSL transgression in Bangladesh at approximately 6000 cal BP, being at least 4.5 to 5 m higher than the modern m.s.l. After this phase, the relative sea level started to fall, and consequently, a freshwater peat developed at approximately 5980-5700 cal BP. The abundant mangrove pollens in the salt-marsh succession shows the regression at approximately 5500 cal BP, when it was 1-2 m higher than the modern sea level. The curve indicates that at approximately 5000 cal BP and onwards, the RSL started to fall towards its present position, and the present shoreline of Bangladesh was established at approximately 1500 cal BP and has not noticeably migrated inland since.

  17. Impact of accelerated future global mean sea level rise on hypoxia in the Baltic Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meier, H. E. M.; Höglund, A.; Eilola, K.; Almroth-Rosell, E.

    2017-07-01

    Expanding hypoxia is today a major threat for many coastal seas around the world and disentangling its drivers is a large challenge for interdisciplinary research. Using a coupled physical-biogeochemical model we estimate the impact of past and accelerated future global mean sea level rise (GSLR) upon water exchange and oxygen conditions in a semi-enclosed, shallow sea. As a study site, the Baltic Sea was chosen that suffers today from eutrophication and from dead bottom zones due to (1) excessive nutrient loads from land, (2) limited water exchange with the world ocean and (3) perhaps other drivers like global warming. We show from model simulations for the period 1850-2008 that the impacts of past GSLR on the marine ecosystem were relatively small. If we assume for the end of the twenty-first century a GSLR of +0.5 m relative to today's mean sea level, the impact on the marine ecosystem may still be small. Such a GSLR corresponds approximately to the projected ensemble-mean value reported by the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. However, we conclude that GSLR should be considered in future high-end projections (>+1 m) for the Baltic Sea and other coastal seas with similar hydrographical conditions as in the Baltic because GSLR may lead to reinforced saltwater inflows causing higher salinity and increased vertical stratification compared to present-day conditions. Contrary to intuition, reinforced ventilation of the deep water does not lead to overall improved oxygen conditions but causes instead expanded dead bottom areas accompanied with increased internal phosphorus loads from the sediments and increased risk for cyanobacteria blooms.

  18. Impact of accelerated future global mean sea level rise on hypoxia in the Baltic Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meier, H. E. M.; Höglund, A.; Eilola, K.; Almroth-Rosell, E.

    2016-08-01

    Expanding hypoxia is today a major threat for many coastal seas around the world and disentangling its drivers is a large challenge for interdisciplinary research. Using a coupled physical-biogeochemical model we estimate the impact of past and accelerated future global mean sea level rise (GSLR) upon water exchange and oxygen conditions in a semi-enclosed, shallow sea. As a study site, the Baltic Sea was chosen that suffers today from eutrophication and from dead bottom zones due to (1) excessive nutrient loads from land, (2) limited water exchange with the world ocean and (3) perhaps other drivers like global warming. We show from model simulations for the period 1850-2008 that the impacts of past GSLR on the marine ecosystem were relatively small. If we assume for the end of the twenty-first century a GSLR of +0.5 m relative to today's mean sea level, the impact on the marine ecosystem may still be small. Such a GSLR corresponds approximately to the projected ensemble-mean value reported by the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. However, we conclude that GSLR should be considered in future high-end projections (>+1 m) for the Baltic Sea and other coastal seas with similar hydrographical conditions as in the Baltic because GSLR may lead to reinforced saltwater inflows causing higher salinity and increased vertical stratification compared to present-day conditions. Contrary to intuition, reinforced ventilation of the deep water does not lead to overall improved oxygen conditions but causes instead expanded dead bottom areas accompanied with increased internal phosphorus loads from the sediments and increased risk for cyanobacteria blooms.

  19. Sea Level Enigmatic Rising - New Perspectives from an Expanding Globe

    CERN Document Server

    Scalera, Giancarlo

    2015-01-01

    In the expanding Earth framework it is possible to find additional phenomena that could contribute in a proper way to the water balance and general tectonic eustatism involved in the sea lever rising. Recent compilations seems to leave unexplained up to 12 cm/century of sea rising, and possible solutions invoking a polar ice shells melting near to the upper limit of the error bars reveal in conflict with the consequent expected decreasing of the Earth angular velocity. It is shown that taking into account possible effects of an expanding Earth, the problem can be initiated towards an appropriate solution, at least as regards the just orders of magnitude. Major effects on sea-level could come from ongoing relaxation of curvature variations that are peculiar for an expanding globe.

  20. Holocene relative sea level variations at the spit system Feddet (Denmark) resolved by ground-penetrating radar and geomorphological data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hede, Mikkel Ulfeldt; Bendixen, Mette; Clemmensen, Lars B;

    collected across beach ridge deposits from Feddet, eastern Denmark, and resolve past relative sea level with a relatively high precision. Feddet is a spit located in Faxe Bay (western part of the Baltic Sea) close to the current 0-isobase of isostatic rebound and is considered a key locality for studies...... in both the present beach face and upper shoreface deposits and in the interpreted beach face and upper shoreface GPR reflections. The break point marks the present transition from beach to upper shoreface and coincides with actual sea level within a few centimetres. Furthermore, our observations indicate...... that downlap points of deposits formed under both relatively high and low water levels are preserved and are identified in GPR reflection data. Thus, records of these sea-level markers constrain the local relative sea level history during the Holocene. Downlap points identified in GPR data across other...

  1. The vulnerability of Indo-Pacific mangrove forests to sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lovelock, Catherine E.; Cahoon, Donald R.; Friess, Daniel A.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.; Krauss, Ken W.; Reef, Ruth; Rogers, Kerrylee; Saunders, Megan L.; Sidik, Frida; Swales, Andrew; Saintilan, Neil; Thuyen, Le Xuan; Triet, Tran

    2015-10-01

    Sea-level rise can threaten the long-term sustainability of coastal communities and valuable ecosystems such as coral reefs, salt marshes and mangroves. Mangrove forests have the capacity to keep pace with sea-level rise and to avoid inundation through vertical accretion of sediments, which allows them to maintain wetland soil elevations suitable for plant growth. The Indo-Pacific region holds most of the world's mangrove forests, but sediment delivery in this region is declining, owing to anthropogenic activities such as damming of rivers. This decline is of particular concern because the Indo-Pacific region is expected to have variable, but high, rates of future sea-level rise. Here we analyse recent trends in mangrove surface elevation changes across the Indo-Pacific region using data from a network of surface elevation table instruments. We find that sediment availability can enable mangrove forests to maintain rates of soil-surface elevation gain that match or exceed that of sea-level rise, but for 69 per cent of our study sites the current rate of sea-level rise exceeded the soil surface elevation gain. We also present a model based on our field data, which suggests that mangrove forests at sites with low tidal range and low sediment supply could be submerged as early as 2070.

  2. The vulnerability of Indo-Pacific mangrove forests to sea-level rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lovelock, Catherine E; Cahoon, Donald R; Friess, Daniel A; Guntenspergen, Glenn R; Krauss, Ken W; Reef, Ruth; Rogers, Kerrylee; Saunders, Megan L; Sidik, Frida; Swales, Andrew; Saintilan, Neil; Thuyen, Le Xuan; Triet, Tran

    2015-10-22

    Sea-level rise can threaten the long-term sustainability of coastal communities and valuable ecosystems such as coral reefs, salt marshes and mangroves. Mangrove forests have the capacity to keep pace with sea-level rise and to avoid inundation through vertical accretion of sediments, which allows them to maintain wetland soil elevations suitable for plant growth. The Indo-Pacific region holds most of the world's mangrove forests, but sediment delivery in this region is declining, owing to anthropogenic activities such as damming of rivers. This decline is of particular concern because the Indo-Pacific region is expected to have variable, but high, rates of future sea-level rise. Here we analyse recent trends in mangrove surface elevation changes across the Indo-Pacific region using data from a network of surface elevation table instruments. We find that sediment availability can enable mangrove forests to maintain rates of soil-surface elevation gain that match or exceed that of sea-level rise, but for 69 per cent of our study sites the current rate of sea-level rise exceeded the soil surface elevation gain. We also present a model based on our field data, which suggests that mangrove forests at sites with low tidal range and low sediment supply could be submerged as early as 2070.

  3. Modeling sea level changes and geodetic variations by glacial isostasy: the improved SELEN code

    CERN Document Server

    Spada, Giorgio; Galassi, Gaia; Colleoni, Florence

    2012-01-01

    We describe the basic features of SELEN, an open source Fortran 90 program for the numerical solution of the so-called "Sea Level Equation" for a spherical, layered, non-rotating Earth with Maxwell viscoelastic rheology. The Sea Level Equation was introduced in the 70s to model the sea level variations in response to the melting of late-Pleistocene ice-sheets, but it can be also employed for predictions of geodetic quantities such as vertical and horizontal surface displacements and gravity variations on a global and a regional scale. SELEN (acronym of SEa Level EquatioN solver) is particularly oriented to scientists at their first approach to the glacial isostatic adjustment problem and, according to our experience, it can be successfully used in teaching. The current release (2.9) considerably improves the previous versions of the code in terms of computational efficiency, portability and versatility. In this paper we describe the essentials of the theory behind the Sea Level Equation, the purposes of SELEN...

  4. Temporal scaling behavior of sea-level change in Hong Kong - Multifractal temporally weighted detrended fluctuation analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yuanzhi; Ge, Erjia

    2013-01-01

    The rise in global sea levels has been recognized by many scientists as an important global research issue. The process of sea-level change has demonstrated a complex scaling behavior in space and time. Large numbers of tide gauge stations have been built to measure sea-level change in the North Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, North Atlantic Ocean, and Antarctic Ocean. Extensive studies have been devoted to exploring sea-level variation in Asia concerning the Bohai Gulf (China), the Yellow Sea (China), the Mekong Delta (Thailand), and Singapore. Hong Kong, however, a mega city with a population of over 7 million situated in the mouth of the Pear River Estuary in the west and the South China Sea in the east, has yet to be studied, particularly in terms of the temporal scaling behavior of sea-level change. This article presents an approach to studying the temporal scaling behavior of sea-level change over multiple time scales by analyzing the time series of sea-level change in Tai Po Kou, Tsim Bei Tsui, and Quarry Bay from the periods of 1964-2010, 1974-2010, and 1986-2010, respectively. The detection of long-range correlation and multi-fractality of sea-level change seeks answers to the following questions: (1) Is the current sea-level rise associated with and responsible for the next rise over time? (2) Does the sea-level rise have specific temporal patterns manifested by multi-scaling behaviors? and (3) Is the sea-level rise is temporally heterogeneous in the different parts of Hong Kong? Multi-fractal temporally weighted de-trended fluctuation analysis (MF-TWDFA), an extension of multi-fractal de-trended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA), has been applied in this study to identify long-range correlation and multi-scaling behavior of the sea-level rise in Hong Kong. The experimental results show that the sea-level rise is long-range correlated and multi-fractal. The temporal patterns are heterogeneous over space. This finding implies that mechanisms associated with the

  5. Multiscale wind cycles and current pulses at the Black Sea eastern boundary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melnikov, Vasiliy; Moskalenko, Lidija; Piotoukh, Vladimir; Zatsepin, Andrey

    2015-04-01

    quantified anomalies, associated with different frequency components of variability, such as sub-meso-scale eddies, marginal shelf waves, inertial oscillations, diurnal, semi-diurnal and short-period internal waves, long surface waves, were estimated. Based on estimates of the statistical relationships between the different parameters of hydro-meteorological system, including meteorological elements, sea level, sea temperature and flow fields, space/time scales of the observed fields variability were estimated. Several new features of the physical mechanisms of multiscale hydro-physical processes in the shelf zone of the Black Sea, have been revealed. In particular, it is shown, that there are wind self-similar cycles at different time scales, each cycle being consisted of a pair of northeast and then southeast winds, which corresponds to the alternative influences of the Azores and Siberian highs(in winter). In the range of decadal (10 years) scale and in macro space view, long-term wind cycles support basic Black Sea circulation(Rim Current).Wind cycles with a time scale of about 20 days give rise to distinct upwellings, appeared with the same frequency. Along with each upwelling, radical hydrological restructuring of the stratification is accompanied by intense advection with high velocities(up to 1 m/s). Kinetic energy is dominated by alongshore currents, the direction being reversed periodically. The vertical structure of currents is rather complicated. When the current speed exceeds some threshold value, the flow gives rise to relaxation oscillations with a period of about 24 hours with counterclockwise velocity vector rotation. All the above mentioned events and current pulses cause significant variations of air-sea fluxes. This research was jointly supported by Ministry of Education of the RF (Agreement №14.604.21.0044), Russian Academy of Sciences(Program No 23), RFBR grant 14-05-00159,contract No 10/2013 RGS-RFBR.

  6. Sea defence and flood protection in the Netherlands anticipating increased sea-level rise

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verhagen, H.J.

    1990-01-01

    The 1400 km Dutch coastline is affected by sea-level rise. At this moment a legal framework is made to guarantee safety of the dikes also in future. Also a national policy is developed for compensation of all coastal erosion. Both measures should make it possible for the Netherlands to survive an

  7. Sea defence and flood protection in the Netherlands anticipating increased sea-level rise

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verhagen, H.J.

    1990-01-01

    The 1400 km Dutch coastline is affected by sea-level rise. At this moment a legal framework is made to guarantee safety of the dikes also in future. Also a national policy is developed for compensation of all coastal erosion. Both measures should make it possible for the Netherlands to survive an

  8. Estimating decadal variability in sea level from tide gauge records: An application to the North Sea

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Frederikse, Thomas; Riva, R.E.M.; Slobbe, Cornelis; Broerse, D.B.T.; Verlaan, Martin

    2016-01-01

    One of the primary observational data sets of sea level is represented by the tide gauge record. We propose a new method to estimate variability on decadal time scales from tide gauge data by using a state space formulation, which couples the direct observations to a predefined state space model by

  9. Geodetic infrastructure at the Barcelona harbour for sea level monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez-Benjamin, Juan Jose; Gili, Josep; Lopez, Rogelio; Tapia, Ana; Pros, Francesc; Palau, Vicenc; Perez, Begona

    2015-04-01

    The presentation is directed to the description of the actual geodetic infrastructure of Barcelona harbour with three tide gauges of different technologies for sea level determination and contribution to regional sea level rise and understanding past and present sea level rise in the Barcelona harbour. It is intended that the overall system will constitute a CGPS Station of the ESEAS (European Sea Level) and TIGA (GPS Tide Gauge Benchmark Monitoring) networks. At Barcelona harbour there is a MIROS radar tide gauge belonging to Puertos del Estado (Spanish Harbours).The radar sensor is over the water surface, on a L-shaped structure which elevates it a few meters above the quay shelf. 1-min data are transmitted to the ENAGAS Control Center by cable and then sent each 1 min to Puertos del Estado by e-mail. The information includes wave forescast (mean period, significant wave height, sea level, etc.This sensor also measures agitation and sends wave parameters each 20 min. There is a GPS station Leica Geosystems GRX1200 GG Pro and antenna AX 1202 GG. The Control Tower of the Port of Barcelona is situated in the North dike of the so-called Energy Pier in the Barcelona harbor (Spain). This tower has different kind of antennas for navigation monitoring and a GNSS permanent station. As the tower is founded in reclaimed land, and because its metallic structure, the 50 m building is subjected to diverse movements, including periodic fluctuations due to temperature changes. In this contribution the 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 the necessary monitoring campaigns are described. In the framework of a Spanish Space Project, the instrumentation of sea level measurements has been improved by providing the Barcelona site with a radar tide gauge Datamar 2000C from Geonica S.L. in June 2014 near an acoustic tide gauge from the Barcelona Harbour installed in 2013. Precision levelling has been made several times in the last two years because the tower is founded in reclaimed land and

  10. Modelling sea level data from China and Malay-Thailand to estimate Holocene ice-volume equivalent sea level change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradley, Sarah L.; Milne, Glenn A.; Horton, Benjamin P.; Zong, Yongqiang

    2016-04-01

    This study presents a new model of Holocene ice-volume equivalent sea level (ESL), extending a previously published global ice sheet model (Bassett et al., 2005), which was unconstrained from 10 kyr BP to present. This new model was developed by comparing relative sea level (RSL) predictions from a glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) model to a suite of Holocene sea level index points from China and Malay-Thailand. Three consistent data-model misfits were found using the Bassett et al. (2005) model: an over-prediction in the height of maximum sea level, the timing of this maximum, and the temporal variation of sea level from the time of the highstand to present. The data-model misfits were examined for a large suite of ESL scenarios and a range of earth model parameters to determine an optimum model of Holocene ESL. This model is characterised by a slowdown in melting at ∼7 kyr BP, associated with the final deglaciation of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, followed by a continued rise in ESL until ∼1 kyr BP of ∼5.8 m associated with melting from the Antarctic Ice Sheet. It was not possible to identify an earth viscosity model that provided good fits for both regions; with the China data preferring viscosity values in the upper mantle of less than 1.5 × 1020 Pa s and the Malay-Thailand data preferring greater values. We suggest that this inference of a very weak upper mantle for the China data originates from the nearby subduction zone and Hainan Plume. The low viscosity values may also account for the lack of a well-defined highstand at the China sites.

  11. Applicability of Current Atmospheric Correction Techniques in the Red Sea

    KAUST Repository

    Tiwari, Surya Prakash

    2016-10-26

    Much of the Red Sea is considered to be a typical oligotrophic sea having very low chlorophyll-a concentrations. Few existing studies describe the variability of phytoplankton biomass in the Red Sea. This study evaluates the resulting chlorophyll-a values computed with different chlorophyll algorithms (e.g., Chl_OCI, Chl_Carder, Chl_GSM, and Chl_GIOP) using radiances derived from two different atmospheric correction algorithms (NASA standard and Singh and Shanmugam (2014)). The resulting satellite derived chlorophyll-a concentrations are compared with in situ chlorophyll values measured using the High-Performance Liquid Chromatography (HPLC). Statistical analyses are used to assess the performances of algorithms using the in situ measurements obtain in the Red Sea, to evaluate the approach to atmospheric correction and algorithm parameterization.

  12. CURRENT LEVELS OF MEDICAL EXPOSURE IN RUSSIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. I. Balonov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We considered conditions of patients’ medical radiation exposure in Russian diagnostic radiology and nuclear medicine basing on the data of our own research, of the Unified system of individual dose control and of some relevant literature. We analyzed the data on the number of diagnostic examinations, patients’ individual and collective doses and their distribution by examination types. Time trends of the studied parameters are presented for the period between 1999 and 2013. Current level of Russian patients’ medical exposure is the lowest over the whole observation period and one of the lowest among the developed countries. The annual number of X-ray diagnostic examinations is 1.8 per capita. In 2013 median effective dose of medical exposure per capita in Russia was 0.45 mSv and median dose per procedure was 0.25 mSv. The major contribution to collective dose of medical exposure was from computed tomography and radiography; the largest individual doses were caused by interventional radiology, computed X-Ray and nuclear medicine tomographic examinations. The range of median doses comprises about four orders of magnitude, i.e. from several microSv in dental X-ray examinations up to several tens of milliSv in interventional and multistage tomographic examinations. The median effective dose of adult patients increases by about an order of magnitude with each transition from dental X-ray examinations to conventional radiology and further to computed tomography and interventional radiology examinations. During interventional X-Ray examinations, absorbed skin doses at radiation beam entrance site may reach several Gray, which may lead to deterministic radiation effects in skin and subcutaneous tissues. Due to replacement of low-dose ‘functional’ nuclear medicine examinations with more informative modern scintigraphy and tomography examination, patient doses substantially increased over the last decade. With current trend for re-equipment of

  13. Salt marsh stability modelled in relation to sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartholdy, Jesper; Bartholdy, Anders T.; Kroon, Aart

    2010-05-01

    Accretion on a natural backbarrier salt marsh was modeled as a function of high tide level, initial salt marsh level and distance to the source. Calibration of the model was based on up to ca 80 year old marker horizons, supplemented by 210Pb/137Cs datings and subsequent measurements of clay thickness. Autocompaction was incorporated in the model, and shown to play a major role for the translation of accretion rates measured as length per unit time to accumulation rates measured as mass per area per unit time. This is important, even for shallow salt marsh deposits for which it is demonstrated that mass depth down core can be directly related to the bulk dry density of the surface layer by means of a logarithmic function. The results allow for an evaluation of the use of marker horizons in the topmost layers and show that it is important to know the level of the marker in relation to the salt marsh base. In general, deeper located markers will indicate successively smaller accretion rates with the same sediment input. Thus, stability analysis made on the basis of newly established marker horizons will be biased and indicate salt marsh stabilities far above the correct level. Running the model with a constant sea level revealed that balance between the inner and the outer salt marsh deposition can not be achieved within a reasonable time scale. Likewise it is shown that only one specific sea level rise provides equilibrium for a given location on the salt marsh. With a higher sea level rise, the marsh at the specific location will eventually drown, whereas - with a sea level rise below this level - it will grow towards the top of the rising tidal frame. The short term variation of salt marsh accretion was found to correlate well with variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation - the NAO winter index. Comparisons between the geomorphological development of wind tide affected salt marshes, like those present on the Danish North Sea coasts, and primary astronomically

  14. Sea level change under IPCC-A2 scenario in Bohai, Yellow, and East China Seas

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Chang-lin CHEN; Jun-cheng ZUO; Mei-xiang CHEN; Zhi-gang GAO; C-K SHUM

    2014-01-01

    Because of the environmental and socioeconomic impacts of anthropogenic sea level rise (SLR), it is very important to understand the processes leading to past and present SLRs towards more reliable future SLR projections. A regional ocean general circulation model (ROGCM), with a grid refinement in the Bohai, Yellow, and East China Seas (BYECSs), was set up to project SLR induced by the ocean dynamic change in the 21st century. The model does not consider the contributions from ice sheets and glacier melting. Data of all forcing terms required in the model came from the simulation of the Community Climate System Model version 3.0 (CCSM3) under the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)-A2 scenario. Simulation results show that at the end of the 21st century, the sea level in the BYECSs will rise about 0.12 to 0.20 m. The SLR in the BYECSs during the 21st century is mainly caused by the ocean mass redistribution due to the ocean dynamic change of the Pacific Ocean, which means that water in the Pacific Ocean tends to move to the continental shelves of the BYECSs, although the local steric sea level change is another factor.

  15. Sea level change under IPCC-A2 scenario in Bohai, Yellow, and East China Seas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chang-lin CHEN

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Because of the environmental and socioeconomic impacts of anthropogenic sea level rise (SLR, it is very important to understand the processes leading to past and present SLRs towards more reliable future SLR projections. A regional ocean general circulation model (ROGCM, with a grid refinement in the Bohai, Yellow, and East China Seas (BYECSs, was set up to project SLR induced by the ocean dynamic change in the 21st century. The model does not consider the contributions from ice sheets and glacier melting. Data of all forcing terms required in the model came from the simulation of the Community Climate System Model version 3.0 (CCSM3 under the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-A2 scenario. Simulation results show that at the end of the 21st century, the sea level in the BYECSs will rise about 0.12 to 0.20 m. The SLR in the BYECSs during the 21st century is mainly caused by the ocean mass redistribution due to the ocean dynamic change of the Pacific Ocean, which means that water in the Pacific Ocean tends to move to the continental shelves of the BYECSs, although the local steric sea level change is another factor.

  16. Interannual to decadal variation of spring sea level anomaly in the western South China Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Fuwen; Fang, Wendong; Pan, Aijun; Cha, Jing; Zhang, Shanwu; Huang, Jiang

    2017-01-01

    Satellite observations of sea level anomalies (SLA) from January 1993 to December 2012 are used to investigate the interannual to decadal changes of the boreal spring high SLA in the western South China Sea (SCS) using the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) method. We find that the SLA variability has two dominant modes. The Sea Level Changing Mode (SLCM) occurs mainly during La Niña years, with high SLA extension from west of Luzon to the eastern coast of Vietnam along the central basin of the SCS, and is likely induced by the increment of the ocean heat content. The Anticyclonic Eddy Mode (AEM) occurs mainly during El Niño years and appears to be triggered by the negative wind curl anomalies within the central SCS. In addition, the spring high SLA in the western SCS experienced a quasi-decadal change during 1993-2012; in other words, the AEM predominated during 1993-1998 and 2002-2005, while the La Niña-related SLCM prevailed during 1999-2001 and 2006-2012. Moreover, we suggest that the accelerated sea level rise in the SCS during 2005-2012 makes the SLCM the leading mode over the past two decades.

  17. Reconciling projections of the Antarctic contribution to sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Tamsin; Holden, Philip; Edwards, Neil; Wernecke, Andreas

    2017-04-01

    Two recent studies of the Antarctic contribution to sea level rise this century had best estimates that differed by an order of magnitude (around 10 cm and 1 m by 2100). The first, Ritz et al. (2015), used a model calibrated with satellite data, giving a 5% probability of exceeding 30cm by 2100 for sea level rise due to Antarctic instability. The second, DeConto and Pollard (2016), used a model evaluated with reconstructions of palaeo-sea level. They did not estimate probabilities, but using a simple assumption here about the distribution shape gives up to a 5% chance of Antarctic contribution exceeding 2.3 m this century with total sea level rise approaching 3 m. If robust, this would have very substantial implications for global adaptation to climate change. How are we to make sense of this apparent inconsistency? How much is down to the data - does the past tell us we will face widespread and rapid Antarctic ice losses in the future? How much is due to the mechanism of rapid ice loss ('cliff failure') proposed in the latter paper, or other parameterisation choices in these low resolution models (GRISLI and PISM, respectively)? How much is due to choices made in the ensemble design and calibration? How do these projections compare with high resolution, grounding line resolving models such as BISICLES? Could we reduce the huge uncertainties in the palaeo-study? Emulation provides a powerful tool for understanding these questions and reconciling the projections. By describing the three numerical ice sheet models with statistical models, we can re-analyse the ensembles and re-do the calibrations under a common statistical framework. This reduces uncertainty in the PISM study because it allows massive sampling of the parameter space, which reduces the sensitivity to reconstructed palaeo-sea level values and also narrows the probability intervals because the simple assumption about distribution shape above is no longer needed. We present reconciled probabilistic

  18. Holocene Sea-Level Database For The Caribbean Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, N. S.; Horton, B.; Engelhart, S. E.; Peltier, W. R.; Scatena, F. N.; Vane, C. H.; Liu, S.

    2013-12-01

    Holocene relative sea-level (RSL) records from far-field locations are important for understanding the driving mechanisms controlling the nature and timing of the mid-late Holocene reduction in global meltwaters and providing background rates of late Holocene RSL change with which to compare the magnitude of 20th century RSL rise. The Caribbean region has traditionally been considered far-field (i.e., with negligible glacio-isostatic adjustment (GIA) influence), although recent investigations indicate otherwise. Here, we consider the spatial variability in glacio-isostatic, tectonic and local contributions on RSL records from the circum-Caribbean region to infer a Holocene eustatic sea-level signal. We have constructed a database of quality-controlled, spatially comprehensive, Holocene RSL observations for the circum-Caribbean region. The database contains over 500 index points, which locate the position of RSL in time and space. The database incorporates sea-level observations from a latitudinal range of 5°N to 25°N and longitudinal range of 55°W to 90°W. We include sea-level observations from 11 ka BP to present, although the majority of the index points in the database are younger than 8 ka BP. The database is sub-divided into 13 regions based on the distance from the former Laurentide Ice Sheet and regional tectonic setting. The index points were primarily derived from mangrove peat deposits, which in the Caribbean form in the upper half of the tidal range, and corals (predominantly Acropora palmata), the growth of which is constrained to the upper 5 m of water depth. The index points are classified on the basis of their susceptibility to compaction (e.g., intercalated, basal). The influence of temporal changes in tidal range on index points is also considered. The sea-level reconstructions demonstrate that RSL did not exceed the present height (0 m) during the Holocene in the majority of locations, except at sites in Suriname/Guayana and possibly Trinidad

  19. Geodesy for Evaluating the Impact of Sea Level Rise on NASA Centers and Facilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, L. J.; Nerem, R.; Masters, D. S.; Meertens, C. M.

    2012-12-01

    Sea level is rising in response to climate change. Currently the global mean rate is a little over 3 mm/year, but it is expected to accelerate significantly over this century. This will have a profound impact on coastal populations and infrastructure, including NASA centers and facilities. A detailed study proposed by the University of Colorado's Center for Astrodynamics Research on the impact of sea level rise on a few of NASA's most vulnerable facilities was recently funded by NASA. Individual surveys at several high-risk NASA centers will be conducted and used as case studies for a broader investigation that needs to be done for coastal infrastructure around the country. The first year of the study will include implementing and conducting a terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) and GPS survey at Kennedy Space Center, Cape Canaveral, Florida, and potentially at Wallops Flight Facility, Wallops Island, Virginia, and Langley Research Center, Hampton, Virginia. We will use a broad array of geodetic tools to perform this study - much of which has been developed over the last few decades by NASA and its investigators. We will use airborne lidar data and terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) data to construct detailed digital elevation models (DEMs) of the facilities that we assess. We will use GPS data to assess the rate of vertical land movement at the facilities and to tie the DEM to tide gauges and other reference points. We will use satellite altimeter data from TOPEX, Jason-1, and Jason-2 to assess the sea level changes observed near these NASA facilities over the last 20 years to see if it offers clues for the future. We will also use GRACE satellite gravity observations to predict the regional changes in sea level caused by the melting of ice complexes around the world. We will use these datasets along with sea level projections from global climate models (GCMs) and semi-empirical projections to make detailed maps of sea level inundation for the years 2050 and 2100 for

  20. Improving the Predictability of Severe Water Levels along the Coasts of Marginal Seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ridder, N. N.; de Vries, H.; van den Brink, H.; De Vries, H.

    2016-12-01

    Extreme water levels can lead to catastrophic consequences with severe societal and economic repercussions. Particularly vulnerable are countries that are largely situated below sea level. To support and optimize forecast models, as well as future adaptation efforts, this study assesses the modeled contribution of storm surges and astronomical tides to total water levels under different air-sea momentum transfer parameterizations in a numerical surge model (WAQUA/DCSMv5) of the North Sea. It particularly focuses on the implications for the representation of extreme and rapidly recurring severe water levels over the past decades based on the example of the Netherlands. For this, WAQUA/DCSMv5, which is currently used to forecast coastal water levels in the Netherlands, is forced with ERA Interim reanalysis data. Model results are obtained from two different methodologies to parameterize air-sea momentum transfer. The first calculates the governing wind stress forcing using a drag coefficient derived from the conventional approach of wind speed dependent Charnock constants. The other uses instantaneous wind stress from the parameterization of the quasi-linear theory applied within the ECMWF wave model which is expected to deliver a more realistic forcing. The performance of both methods is tested by validating the model output with observations, paying particular attention to their ability to reproduce rapidly succeeding high water levels and extreme events. In a second step, the common features of and connections between these events are analyzed. The results of this study will allow recommendations for the improvement of water level forecasts within marginal seas and support decisions by policy makers. Furthermore, they will strengthen the general understanding of severe and extreme water levels as a whole and help to extend the currently limited knowledge about clustering events.

  1. Influence of Sea Level Rise and Marsh Hypsometry on the Equilibrium Morphology of Tidal Inlets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lovering, J. L.; Adams, P. N.

    2011-12-01

    As global sea level is predicted to rise between 0.18 and 1.9 meters by the end of the 21st century, it is critical to understand how the geomorphology and ecology of coastal regions worldwide will be affected for a range of sea level rise rate scenarios. Tidal inlets along sandy, passive margin coasts are sensitive to water levels, nearshore currents, and wave fields, so changes in environmental conditions in the vicinity of inlets should drive a morphologic response. Due to their importance in commercial shipping, military navigation, and recreation, an improved understanding of tidal inlet response to sea level rise will assist in future planning efforts. The widely accepted conceptual model of tidal inlet evolution predicts that, as sea level rises, salt marshes in the lagoon become drowned and converted to subtidal environments, increasing accommodation space in the back barrier basin. This conversion increases the tidal prism, inlet cross-sectional area, and ebb shoal volume. The purpose of this study is to quantify the relationship between sea level rise, the ecomorphodynamic environment of the back barrier basin, and the resulting changes in equilibrium tidal inlet morphology. Threshold values of sea level rise rate for which marsh habitats convert to subtidal environments, determined by the tidal range and suspended sediment concentration found in the back barrier basin, were developed using previously published numerical simulations and field-based observations. We paired the threshold values with Escoffier equilibrium curve calculations, in order to predict changes in tidal inlet equilibrium cross-sectional area. Halophytic vegetation that is supplied with high suspended sediment concentrations and lives in an area with a high tidal range is able to trap sediment and drive vertical accretion at a faster pace than vegetation in areas of low sediment availability and low tidal range; therefore marshes with high sediment availability and tidal range are

  2. Holocene changes in sea level: Evidence in Micronesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepard, F.P.; Curray, Joseph R.; Newman, W.A.; Bloom, A.L.; Newell, N.D.; Tracey, J.I.; Veeh, H.H.

    1967-01-01

    Investigation of 33 islands, scattered widely across the Caroline and Marshall Island groups in the Central Pacific revealed no emerged reefs in which corals had unquestionably formed in situ, or other direct evidence of postglacial high stands of sea level. Low unconsolidated rock terraces and ridges of reef-flat islands, mostly lying between tide levels, were composed of rubble conglomerates; carbon-14 dating of 11 samples from the conglomerates so far may suggest a former slightly higher sea level (nine samples range between 1890 and 3450 and one approaches 4500 years ago). However, recent hurricanes have produced ridges of comparable height and material, and in the same areas relics from World War II have been found cemented in place. Thus these datings do not in themselves necessarily indicate formerly higher sea levels. Rubble tracts are produced by storms under present conditions without any change in datum, and there seems to be no compelling evidence that they were not so developed during various periods in the past.

  3. Sea-level and environmental changes since the last interglacial in the Gulf of Carpentaria, Australia: an overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chivas, Allan R.; Garcı́a, Adriana; van der Kaars, Sander; Couapel, Martine; Holt, Sabine; Reeves, Jessica M.; Wheeler, David J.; Switzer, Adam D.; Murray-Wallace, Colin V.; Banerjee, Debabrata; Price, David M.; Wang, Sue X.; Pearson, Grant; Edgar, N. Terry; Beaufort, Luc; de Deckker, Patrick; Lawson, Ewan; Cecil, C. Blaine

    2001-01-01

    The Gulf of Carpentaria is an epicontinental sea (maximum depth 70 m) between Australia and New Guinea, bordered to the east by Torres Strait (currently 12 m deep) and to the west by the Arafura Sill (53 m below present sea level). Throughout the Quaternary, during times of low sea-level, the Gulf was separated from the open waters of the Indian and Pacific Oceans, forming Lake Carpentaria, an isolation basin, perched above contemporaneous sea-level with outlet channels to the Arafura Sea. A preliminary interpretation is presented of the palaeoenvironments recorded in six sediment cores collected by the IMAGES program in the Gulf of Carpentaria. The longest core (approx. 15 m) spans the past 130 ka and includes a record of sea-level/lake-level changes, with particular complexity between 80 and 40 ka when sea-level repeatedly breached and withdrew from Gulf/Lake Carpentaria. Evidence from biotic remains (foraminifers, ostracods, pollen), sedimentology and geochemistry clearly identifies a final marine transgression at about 9.7 ka (radiocarbon years). Before this transgression, Lake Carpentaria was surrounded by grassland, was near full, and may have had a surface area approaching 600 km×300 km and a depth of about 15 m. The earlier rise in sea-level which accompanied the Marine Isotopic Stage 6/5 transgression at about 130 ka is constrained by sedimentological and biotic evidence and dated by optical- and thermoluminescence and amino acid racemisation methods.

  4. A new global dataset with extreme sea levels and its application for assessing flood risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muis, Sanne; Verlaan, Martin; Winsemius, Hessel; Aerts, Jeroen; Ward, Philip

    2016-04-01

    Extreme sea levels, caused by storm surges and high tides, can have devastating societal impacts. The global coastal population is faced with an increasing trend in flood risk, induced by socio-economic development and climate change. Without action, the increasing trends in flood hazard and exposure will be associated with catastrophic flood losses in the future. The adequate allocation of global investments in adaptation requires an accurate understanding of the current and future coastal flood risk on a global-scale. Here we present the first global reanalysis of storm surges and extreme sea levels (GTSR dataset) based on dynamical modelling. GTSR covers the entire world's coastline and consists of time series of tides and surges and estimates of extreme values for various return periods. The dataset is based on two different hydrodynamic models: FES2012 for modelling tides, and GSTM for modelling storm surges. GSTM is forced by meteorological fields from ERA-Interim to simulate storm surges for the period 1979-2014. Validation showed that there is very good agreement between modelled and observed sea levels. Only in regions prone to tropical cyclones, extreme sea levels are severely underestimated due to the limited resolution of the meteorological forcing. This will be resolved for future updates of GTSR. As a first application of GSTR, we estimate that 99 million people are exposed to a 1 in 100 year flood. This is almost 40% lower than estimates based the DIVA dataset, another global dataset of extreme sea level. We foresee other applications in assessing impacts of climate change and risk management, such as assessing changes in storminess, estimating the impacts of sea level, and providing warning levels to operational models.

  5. Sea otter foraging behavior and hydrocarbon levels in prey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doroff, Angela M.; Bodkin, James L.; Loughlin, Thomas R.

    1994-01-01

    or net caloric availability due to heavy oiling in portions of southwestern PWS may have led to reduced carrying capacity and delayed recovery for the sea otter population in this region.Recovery of the PWS sea otter population may be influenced by several factors. Decreased food availability caused by oil-related prey mortality or consumption of contaminated prey may be detrimental. Prey availability in western PWS may have declined due to increased mortality of invertebrates at the time of shoreline oiling. of by oil-removal activities. In addition. relative prey availability may have been decreased by sea otters avoiding invertebrate prey contaminated with petroleum hydrocarbons. However, we lack the baseline data on abundance and distribution of near shore invertebrates necessary to estimate a reduction in prey availability. In addition. the effects of ingesting prey contaminated with petroleum hydrocarbons on sea otters are unknown.Our objectives were to determine if sea otter foraging success and prey composition differed between oiled and nonoiled areas and to assess hydrocarbon levels in sea otter prey between oiled and nonoiled areas.

  6. An operational coupled wave-current forecasting system for the northern Adriatic Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russo, A.; Coluccelli, A.; Deserti, M.; Valentini, A.; Benetazzo, A.; Carniel, S.

    2012-04-01

    Since 2005 an Adriatic implementation of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (AdriaROMS) is being producing operational short-term forecasts (72 hours) of some hydrodynamic properties (currents, sea level, temperature, salinity) of the Adriatic Sea at 2 km horizontal resolution and 20 vertical s-levels, on a daily basis. The main objective of AdriaROMS, which is managed by the Hydro-Meteo-Clima Service (SIMC) of ARPA Emilia Romagna, is to provide useful products for civil protection purposes (sea level forecasts, outputs to run other forecasting models as for saline wedge, oil spills and coastal erosion). In order to improve the forecasts in the coastal area, where most of the attention is focused, a higher resolution model (0.5 km, again with 20 vertical s-levels) has been implemented for the northern Adriatic domain. The new implementation is based on the Coupled-Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport Modeling System (COAWST)and adopts ROMS for the hydrodynamic and Simulating WAve Nearshore (SWAN) for the wave module, respectively. Air-sea fluxes are computed using forecasts produced by the COSMO-I7 operational atmospheric model. At the open boundary of the high resolution model, temperature, salinity and velocity fields are provided by AdriaROMS while the wave characteristics are provided by an operational SWAN implementation (also managed by SIMC). Main tidal components are imposed as well, derived from a tidal model. Work in progress is oriented now on the validation of model results by means of extensive comparisons with acquired hydrographic measurements (such as CTDs or XBTs from sea-truth campaigns), currents and waves acquired at observational sites (including those of SIMC, CNR-ISMAR network and its oceanographic tower, located off the Venice littoral) and satellite-derived wave-heights data. Preliminary results on the forecast waves denote how, especially during intense storms, the effect of coupling can lead to significant variations in the wave

  7. Control of Quaternary sea-level changes on gas seeps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riboulot, Vincent; Thomas, Yannick; Berné, Serge; Jouet, Gwénaël.; Cattaneo, Antonio

    2014-07-01

    Gas seeping to the seafloor through structures such as pockmarks may contribute significantly to the enrichment of atmospheric greenhouse gases and global warming. Gas seeps in the Gulf of Lions, Western Mediterranean, are cyclical, and pockmark "life" is governed both by sediment accumulation on the continental margin and Quaternary climate changes. Three-dimensional seismic data, correlated to multi-proxy analysis of a deep borehole, have shown that these pockmarks are associated with oblique chimneys. The prograding chimney geometry demonstrates the syn-sedimentary and long-lasting functioning of the gas seeps. Gas chimneys have reworked chronologically constrained stratigraphic units and have functioned episodically, with maximum activity around sea level lowstands. Therefore, we argue that one of the main driving mechanisms responsible for their formation is the variation in hydrostatic pressure driven by relative sea level changes.

  8. Milankovitch forcing of the last interglacial sea level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crowley, T J; Kim, K Y

    1994-09-09

    During the last interglacial, sea level was as high as present, 4000 to 6000 years before peak Northern Hemisphere insolation receipt 126,000 years ago. The sea-level results are shown to be consistent with climate models, which simulate a 3 degrees to 4 degrees C July temperature increase from 140,000 to 130,000 years ago in high latitudes, with all Northern Hemisphere land areas being warmer than present by 130,000 years ago. The early warming occurs because obliquity peaked earlier than precession and because precession values were greater than present before peak precessional forcing occurred. These results indicate that a fuller understanding of the Milankovitch-climate connection requires consideration of fields other than just insolation forcing at 65 degrees N.

  9. Sea level reconstruction from satellite altimetry and tide gauge data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svendsen, Peter Limkilde; Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg

    2012-01-01

    transformations such as maximum autocorrelation factors (MAF), which better take into account the spatio-temporal structure of the variation. Rather than trying to maximize the amount of variance explained, the MAF transform considers noise to be uncorrelated with a spatially or temporally shifted version...... of itself, whereas the desired signal will exhibit autocorrelation. This will be applied to a global dataset, necessitating wrap-around consideration of spatial shifts. Our focus is a timescale going back approximately 50 years, allowing reasonable global availability of tide gauge data. This allows......Ocean satellite altimetry has provided global sets of sea level data for the last two decades, allowing determination of spatial patterns in global sea level. For reconstructions going back further than this period, tide gauge data can be used as a proxy. We examine different methods of combining...

  10. The record of Pliocene sea-level change at Enewetak Atoll

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wardlaw, Bruce R.; Quinn, Terrence M.

    Detailed seismic stratigraphy, lithostratigraphy, and chemostratigraphy indicate that atoll-wide subaerial exposure surfaces (major disconformities) developed during major sea-level lowstands form prominent seismic reflectors and are coincident with biostratigraphic breaks in the Plio-Pleistocene on Enewetak Atoll. Sea-level models based on the stratigraphic position and age of major disconformities suggest a maximum sea-level highstand elevation of 36 m above present sea level and a maximum sea-level lowstand elevation of 63 m below present sea level for the Pliocene.

  11. Acceleration in U.S. Mean Sea Level? A New Insight using Improved Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Phil J.

    2016-08-01

    The detection of acceleration in mean sea level around the data-rich margins of the United States has been a keen endeavour of sea-level researchers following the seminal work of Bruce Douglas in 1992. Over the past decade, such investigations have taken on greater prominence given mean sea level remains a key proxy by which to measure a changing climate system. The physics-based climate projection models are forecasting that the current global average rate of mean sea-level rise (≈3 mm/y) might climb to rates in the range of 10020 mm/y by 2100. Most research in this area has centred on reconciling current rates of rise with the significant accelerations required to meet the forecast projections of climate models. The analysis in this paper is based on a recently developed analytical package titled "msltrend," specifically designed to enhance estimates of trend, real-time velocity and acceleration in the relative mean sea-level signal derived from long annual average ocean-water-level time series. Key findings are that at the 95% confidence level, no consistent or substantial evidence (yet) exists that recent rates of rise are higher or abnormal in the context of the historical records available for the United States, nor does any evidence exist that geocentric rates of rise are above the global average. It is likely that a further 20 years of data will identify whether recent increases east of Galveston and along the east coast are evidence of the onset of climate change induced acceleration.

  12. Estimating decadal variability in sea level from tide gauge records: An application to the North Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frederikse, Thomas; Riva, Riccardo; Slobbe, Cornelis; Broerse, Taco; Verlaan, Martin

    2016-03-01

    One of the primary observational data sets of sea level is represented by the tide gauge record. We propose a new method to estimate variability on decadal time scales from tide gauge data by using a state space formulation, which couples the direct observations to a predefined state space model by using a Kalman filter. The model consists of a time-varying trend and seasonal cycle, and variability induced by several physical processes, such as wind, atmospheric pressure changes and teleconnection patterns. This model has two advantages over the classical least-squares method that uses regression to explain variations due to known processes: a seasonal cycle with time-varying phase and amplitude can be estimated, and the trend is allowed to vary over time. This time-varying trend consists of a secular trend and low-frequency variability that is not explained by any other term in the model. As a test case, we have used tide gauge data from stations around the North Sea over the period 1980-2013. We compare a model that only estimates a trend with two models that also remove intra-annual variability: one by means of time series of wind stress and sea level pressure, and one by using a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model. The last two models explain a large part of the variability, which significantly improves the accuracy of the estimated time-varying trend. The best results are obtained with the hydrodynamic model. We find a consistent low-frequency sea level signal in the North Sea, which can be linked to a steric signal over the northeastern part of the Atlantic.

  13. Adaptive Planning for Transportation Corridors Threatened by Sea Level Rise

    OpenAIRE

    Shilling, Fraser M; Vandever, Justin; May, Kris; Gerhard, Ina; Bregoff, Robert

    2016-01-01

    This paper describes a generalizable planning and assessment process for transportation planning adaptive to sea level rise (SLR). State Route 37 (SR-37) is the California highway most vulnerable to temporary flooding and permanent inundation as a result of SLR. Like many other coastal highways in the United States, SR-37 is adjacent to protected coastal systems (e.g., beaches, tidal wetlands), meaning that any activity on the highway is s...

  14. How mangrove forests adjust to rising sea level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krauss, Ken W.; McKee, Karen L.; Lovelock, Catherine E.; Cahoon, Donald R.; Saintilan, Neil; Reef, Ruth; Chen, Luzhen

    2014-01-01

    Mangroves are among the most well described and widely studied wetland communities in the world. The greatest threats to mangrove persistence are deforestation and other anthropogenic disturbances that can compromise habitat stability and resilience to sea-level rise. To persist, mangrove ecosystems must adjust to rising sea level by building vertically or become submerged. Mangroves may directly or indirectly influence soil accretion processes through the production and accumulation of organic matter, as well as the trapping and retention of mineral sediment. In this review, we provide a general overview of research on mangrove elevation dynamics, emphasizing the role of the vegetation in maintaining soil surface elevations (i.e. position of the soil surface in the vertical plane). We summarize the primary ways in which mangroves may influence sediment accretion and vertical land development, for example, through root contributions to soil volume and upward expansion of the soil surface. We also examine how hydrological, geomorphological and climatic processes may interact with plant processes to influence mangrove capacity to keep pace with rising sea level. We draw on a variety of studies to describe the important, and often under-appreciated, role that plants play in shaping the trajectory of an ecosystem undergoing change.

  15. Hydrothermal iron flux variability following rapid sea level changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Middleton, Jennifer L.; Langmuir, Charles H.; Mukhopadhyay, Sujoy; McManus, Jerry F.; Mitrovica, Jerry X.

    2016-04-01

    Sea level changes associated with Pleistocene glacial cycles have been hypothesized to modulate melt production and hydrothermal activity at ocean ridges, yet little is known about fluctuations in hydrothermal circulation on time scales longer than a few millennia. We present a high-resolution record of hydrothermal activity over the past 50 ka using elemental flux data from a new sediment core from the Mir zone of the TAG hydrothermal field at 26°N on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. Mir sediments reveal sixfold to eightfold increases in hydrothermal iron and copper deposition during the Last Glacial Maximum, followed by a rapid decline during the sea level rise associated with deglaciation. Our results, along with previous observations from Pacific and Atlantic spreading centers, indicate that rapid sea level changes influence hydrothermal output on mid-ocean ridges. Thus, climate variability may discretize volcanic processing of the solid Earth on millennial time scales and subsequently stimulate variability in biogeochemical interactions with volcanic systems.

  16. How mangrove forests adjust to rising sea level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krauss, Ken W; McKee, Karen L; Lovelock, Catherine E; Cahoon, Donald R; Saintilan, Neil; Reef, Ruth; Chen, Luzhen

    2014-04-01

    Mangroves are among the most well described and widely studied wetland communities in the world. The greatest threats to mangrove persistence are deforestation and other anthropogenic disturbances that can compromise habitat stability and resilience to sea-level rise. To persist, mangrove ecosystems must adjust to rising sea level by building vertically or become submerged. Mangroves may directly or indirectly influence soil accretion processes through the production and accumulation of organic matter, as well as the trapping and retention of mineral sediment. In this review, we provide a general overview of research on mangrove elevation dynamics, emphasizing the role of the vegetation in maintaining soil surface elevations (i.e. position of the soil surface in the vertical plane). We summarize the primary ways in which mangroves may influence sediment accretion and vertical land development, for example, through root contributions to soil volume and upward expansion of the soil surface. We also examine how hydrological, geomorphological and climatic processes may interact with plant processes to influence mangrove capacity to keep pace with rising sea level. We draw on a variety of studies to describe the important, and often under-appreciated, role that plants play in shaping the trajectory of an ecosystem undergoing change.

  17. Mangrove Sedimentation and Response to Relative Sea-Level Rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodroffe, C. D.; Rogers, K.; McKee, K. L.; Lovelock, C. E.; Mendelssohn, I. A.; Saintilan, N.

    2016-01-01

    Mangroves occur on upper intertidal shorelines in the tropics and subtropics. Complex hydrodynamic and salinity conditions, related primarily to elevation and hydroperiod, influence mangrove distributions; this review considers how these distributions change over time. Accumulation rates of allochthonous and autochthonous sediment, both inorganic and organic, vary between and within different settings. Abundant terrigenous sediment can form dynamic mudbanks, and tides redistribute sediment, contrasting with mangrove peat in sediment-starved carbonate settings. Sediments underlying mangroves sequester carbon but also contain paleoenvironmental records of adjustments to past sea-level changes. Radiometric dating indicates long-term sedimentation, whereas measurements made using surface elevation tables and marker horizons provide shorter perspectives, indicating shallow subsurface processes of root growth and substrate autocompaction. Many tropical deltas also experience deep subsidence, which augments relative sea-level rise. The persistence of mangroves implies an ability to cope with moderately high rates of relative sea-level rise. However, many human pressures threaten mangroves, resulting in a continuing decline in their extent throughout the tropics. *

  18. Mangrove sedimentation and response to relative sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodroffe, CD; Rogers, K.; Mckee, Karen L.; Lovelock, CE; Mendelssohn, IA; Saintilan, N.

    2016-01-01

    Mangroves occur on upper intertidal shorelines in the tropics and subtropics. Complex hydrodynamic and salinity conditions influence mangrove distributions, primarily related to elevation and hydroperiod; this review considers how these adjust through time. Accumulation rates of allochthonous and autochthonous sediment, both inorganic and organic, vary between and within different settings. Abundant terrigenous sediment can form dynamic mudbanks; tides redistribute sediment, contrasting with mangrove peat in sediment-starved carbonate settings. Sediments underlying mangroves sequester carbon, but also contain paleoenvironmental records of adjustments to past sea-level changes. Radiometric dating indicates long-term sedimentation, whereas Surface Elevation Table-Marker Horizon measurements (SET-MH) provide shorter perspectives, indicating shallow subsurface processes of root growth and substrate autocompaction. Many tropical deltas also experience deep subsidence, which augments relative sea-level rise. The persistence of mangroves implies an ability to cope with moderately high rates of relative sea-level rise. However, many human pressures threaten mangroves, resulting in continuing decline in their extent throughout the tropics.

  19. Sea level, paleogeography, and archeology on California's Northern Channel Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reeder-Myers, Leslie; Erlandson, Jon M.; Muhs, Daniel R.; Rick, Torben C.

    2015-01-01

    Sea-level rise during the late Pleistocene and early Holocene inundated nearshore areas in many parts of the world, producing drastic changes in local ecosystems and obscuring significant portions of the archeological record. Although global forces are at play, the effects of sea-level rise are highly localized due to variability in glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) effects. Interpretations of coastal paleoecology and archeology require reliable estimates of ancient shorelines that account for GIA effects. Here we build on previous models for California's Northern Channel Islands, producing more accurate late Pleistocene and Holocene paleogeographic reconstructions adjusted for regional GIA variability. This region has contributed significantly to our understanding of early New World coastal foragers. Sea level that was about 80–85 m lower than present at the time of the first known human occupation brought about a landscape and ecology substantially different than today. During the late Pleistocene, large tracts of coastal lowlands were exposed, while a colder, wetter climate and fluctuating marine conditions interacted with rapidly evolving littoral environments. At the close of the Pleistocene and start of the Holocene, people in coastal California faced shrinking land, intertidal, and subtidal zones, with important implications for resource availability and distribution.

  20. A study on the seismic fortification level of offshore platform in Bohai Sea of China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Y.

    2010-12-01

    The Chinese sea areas are important places of offshore petroleum resources, and at the same time they are also seismically active regions. Fixed offshore platforms (OPs) are the fundamental facilities for marine resource exploitation, and usually situated in a complex and severe environment as having to endure many environmental loads in their life span, therefore, the damage to their structures may result in serious disasters. Among these environmental loads the seismic load has tremendous destructive effect and is not predictable. In case of not overly severe wind, wave and current, seismic resistance dominates the strength design of platforms. Furthermore, strong earthquakes have occurred recently or in the history of all the sea areas of oil/gas exploitation in China. Therefore, seismic design of fixed OPs is a very important issue. With the development of marine exploration and earthquake researches in the sea area, extensive studies on the seismotectonic environment and seismicity characteristics of the sea areas of China have been performed, meanwhile, more and more experience and data have been accumulated from OP design practice, which laid a foundation for studying and establishing the seismic design standard of OPs. This paper first gives an overall understanding of the seismic environment of the sea areas of China, then taking the Bohai Sea seismic risk study as an example, introducing a so-called shape factor K to characterize the seismic risk distribution in sub-regions of the Bohai Sea. Based on the seismic design ground motions for 46 platforms in Bohai Sea, a statistic analysis was performed for different peak ground acceleration (PGA) ratios at two different probability levels. In accordance with the two-stage design method, a scheme of two seismic design levels is proposed, and two seismic design objectives are established respectively for the strength level earthquake and ductility level earthquake. By analogy with and comparison to the Chinese

  1. Absolute sea levels and isostatic changes of the eastern North Sea to central Baltic region during the last 900 years

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Jens Morten; Aagaard, Troels; Binderup, Merete

    2012-01-01

    in the present sea-level rise may be part of this 70-year cyclicity, and that the non-anthropogenic sea-level rise between 1700 and 1790 seems faster than the present and projected sea-level rise for the 21st century. Moreover, the conspicuous sea-level fall at the beginning of the Little Ice Age confirms......Most studies of late Holocene sea-level changes generally assume stable tectonic conditions. However, unrecognized neotectonic ‘noise’, even the small rates of passive continental margins, can severely distort sea-level reconstructions of the late Holocene. The detailed sea-level curve proposed...... here is reconstructed by identification of an area (Læsø archipelago in the Kattegat Sea) where small neotectonic level changes and other kinds of ‘background noise’ can be precisely quantified by advanced LiDAR techniques. We show that the absolute (‘eustatic’) sea level of Kattegat has risen by 110...

  2. Controls on Precambrian sea level change and sedimentary cyclicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eriksson, P. G.; Catuneanu, O.; Nelson, D. R.; Popa, M.

    2005-04-01

    Although uniformitarianism applies in a general sense to the controls on relative and global sea level change, some influences thereon were more prominent in the Precambrian. Short-term base level change due to waves and tides may have been enhanced due to possibly more uniform circulation systems on wide, low gradient Precambrian shelves. The lack of evidence for global glacial events in the Precambrian record implies that intraplate stresses and cyclic changes to Earth's geoid were more likely explanations for third-order sea level change than glacio-eustasy. Higher heat flow in the earlier Precambrian may have led to more rapid tectonic plate formation, transport and destruction, along with an increased role for hot spots, aseismic ridges and mantle plumes (superplumes), all of which may have influenced cyclic sedimentation within the ocean basins. A weak cyclicity in the occurrence of plume events has an approximate duration comparable to that of first-order (supercontinental cycle) sea level change. Second-order cyclicity in the Precambrian largely reflects the influences of thermal epeirogeny, changes to mid-ocean ridge volume as well as to ridge growth and decay rates, and cratonic marginal downwarping concomitant with either sediment loading or extensional tectonism. Third-order cycles of sea level change in the Precambrian also reflected cyclic loading/unloading within flexural foreland basin settings, and filling/deflation of magma chambers associated with island arc evolution. The relatively limited number of studies of Precambrian sequence stratigraphy allows some preliminary conclusions to be drawn on duration of the first three orders of cyclicity. Archaean greenstone basins appear to have had first- and second-order cycle durations analogous to Phanerozoic equivalents, supporting steady state tectonics throughout Earth history. In direct contrast, however, preserved basin-fills from Neoarchaean-Palaeoproterozoic cratonic terranes have first- and

  3. Observed Sea-Level Changes along the Norwegian Coast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristian Breili

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Norway’s national sea level observing system consists of an extensive array of tide gauges, permanent GNSS stations, and lines of repeated levelling. Here, we make use of this observation system to calculate relative sea-level rates and rates corrected for glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA along the Norwegian coast for three different periods, i.e., 1960 to 2010, 1984 to 2014, and 1993 to 2016. For all periods, the relative sea-level rates show considerable spatial variations that are largely due to differences in vertical land motion due to GIA. The variation is reduced by applying corrections for vertical land motion and associated gravitational effects on sea level. For 1960 to 2010 and 1984 to 2014, the coastal average GIA-corrected rates for Norway are 2.0 ± 0.6 mm/year and 2.2 ± 0.6 mm/year, respectively. This is close to the rate of global sea-level rise for the same periods. For the most recent period, 1993 to 2016, the GIA-corrected coastal average is 3.5 ± 0.6 mm/year and 3.2 ± 0.6 mm/year with and without inverse barometer (IB corrections, respectively, which is significantly higher than for the two earlier periods. For 1993 to 2016, the coastal average IB-corrected rates show broad agreement with two independent sets of altimetry. This suggests that there is no systematic error in the vertical land motion corrections applied to the tide-gauge data. At the same time, altimetry does not capture the spatial variation identified in the tide-gauge records. This could be an effect of using altimetry observations off the coast instead of directly at each tide gauge. Finally, we note that, owing to natural variability in the climate system, our estimates are highly sensitive to the selected study period. For example, using a 30-year moving window, we find that the estimated rates may change by up to 1 mm/year when shifting the start epoch by only one year.

  4. Investigation of the LIG sea-level highstand with massive ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Düsterhus, André; Tamisiea, Mark E.; Hibbert, Fiona D.; Rohling, Eelco J.

    2017-04-01

    Paleoclimatic sea-level analysis is based upon the evaluation of sparse indirect observational data, the sea-level indicators, and models for sea-level fluctuations, with a wide range of complexity. Individual records of paleo sea level depend not only upon the change in global ice volume, but also on the crustal deformation and gravity changes that are significant both near the glaciers and around the world. Understanding of these processes for the past is essential for interpreting the observations and generating better estimates of future changes. We use massive ensemble approaches to analyse sea-level changes during the last interglacial (LIG). Employing a Bayesian statistical analysis, we compare the sea-level indicators to model-generated sea-level estimates. As a result we gain insight into the development of the ice sheets, the influence of the Earth deformation and the evolution of higher-than-present-day sea level during that period. This contribution gives an overview of our sea-level analysis during the LIG. We focus on the highstand of sea level during the LIG and the duration of higher than modern sea level. The analysis helps to answer questions of the effect of the uncertainties in the indicators, both in height as well as in time, on features of the estimated global-average sea level. In particular, we address how well the data resolve sea-level oscillations during the LIG.

  5. Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise

    OpenAIRE

    Sean Vitousek; Patrick L. Barnard; Fletcher, Charles H.; Neil Frazer; Li Erikson; Curt D. Storlazzi

    2017-01-01

    Global climate change drives sea-level rise, increasing the frequency of coastal flooding. In most coastal regions, the amount of sea-level rise occurring over years to decades is significantly smaller than normal ocean-level fluctuations caused by tides, waves, and storm surge. However, even gradual sea-level rise can rapidly increase the frequency and severity of coastal flooding. So far, global-scale estimates of increased coastal flooding due to sea-level rise have not considered elevated...

  6. Improved sea level record over the satellite altimetry era (1993–2010 from the Climate Change Initiative Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Ablain

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Sea level is one of the 50 Essential Climate Variables (ECVs listed by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS in climate change monitoring. In the last two decades, sea level has been routinely measured from space using satellite altimetry techniques. In order to address a number of important scientific questions such as: "Is sea level rise accelerating?", "Can we close the sea level budget?", "What are the causes of the regional and interannual variability?", "Can we already detect the anthropogenic forcing signature and separate it from the internal/natural climate variability?", and "What are the coastal impacts of sea level rise?", the accuracy of altimetry-based sea level records at global and regional scales needs to be significantly improved. For example, the global mean and regional sea level trend uncertainty should become better than 0.3 and 0.5 mm year−1, respectively (currently of 0.6 and 1–2 mm year−1. Similarly, interannual global mean sea level variations (currently uncertain to 2–3 mm need to be monitored with better accuracy. In this paper, we present various respective data improvements achieved within the European Space Agency (ESA Climate Change Initiative (ESA CCI project on "Sea Level" during its first phase (2010–2013, using multi-mission satellite altimetry data over the 1993–2010 time span. In a first step, using a new processing system with dedicated algorithms and adapted data processing strategies, an improved set of sea level products has been produced. The main improvements include: reduction of orbit errors and wet/dry atmospheric correction errors, reduction of instrumental drifts and bias, inter-calibration biases, intercalibration between missions and combination of the different sea level data sets, and an improvement of the reference mean sea surface. We also present preliminary independent validations of the SL_cci products, based on tide gauges comparison and sea level budget closure approach

  7. Gap Filling of Daily Sea Levels by Artificial Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lyubka Pashova

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available In the recent years, intelligent methods as artificial neural networks are successfully applied for data analysis from different fields of the geosciences. One of the encountered practical problems is the availability of gaps in the time series that prevent their comprehensive usage for the scientific and practical purposes. The article briefly describes two types of the artificial neural network (ANN architectures - Feed-Forward Backpropagation (FFBP and recurrent Echo state network (ESN. In some cases, the ANN can be used as an alternative on the traditional methods, to fill in missing values in the time series. We have been conducted several experiments to fill the missing values of daily sea levels spanning a 5-years period using both ANN architectures. A multiple linear regression for the same purpose has been also applied. The sea level data are derived from the records of the tide gauge Burgas, which is located on the western Black Sea coast. The achieved results have shown that the performance of ANN models is better than that of the classical one and they are very promising for the real-time interpolation of missing data in the time series.

  8. Distribution and air-sea exchange of current-use pesticides (CUPs) from East Asia to the high Arctic Ocean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Guangcai; Xie, Zhiyong; Cai, Minghong; Möller, Axel; Sturm, Renate; Tang, Jianhui; Zhang, Gan; He, Jianfeng; Ebinghaus, Ralf

    2012-01-03

    Surface seawater and marine boundary layer air samples were collected on the ice-breaker R/V Xuelong (Snow Dragon) from the East China Sea to the high Arctic (33.23-84.5° N) in July to September 2010 and have been analyzed for six current-use pesticides (CUPs): trifluralin, endosulfan, chlorothalonil, chlorpyrifos, dacthal, and dicofol. In all oceanic air samples, the six CUPs were detected, showing highest level (>100 pg/m(3)) in the Sea of Japan. Gaseous CUPs basically decreased from East Asia (between 36.6 and 45.1° N) toward Bering and Chukchi Seas. The dissolved CUPs in ocean water ranged widely from air. Trifluralin in seawater was relatively high in the Sea of Japan (35.2° N) and evenly distributed between 36.9 and 72.5° N, but it remained below the detection limit at the highest northern latitudes in Chukchi Sea. In contrast with other CUPs, concentrations of chlorothalonil and dacthal were more abundant in Chukchi Sea and in East Asia. The air-sea gas exchange of CUPs was generally dominated by net deposition. Latitudinal trends of fugacity ratios of α-endosulfan, chlorothalonil, and dacthal showed stronger deposition of these compounds in East Asia than in Chukchi Sea, while trifluralin showed stronger deposition in Chukchi Sea (-455 ± 245 pg/m(2)/day) than in the North Pacific (-241 ± 158 pg/m(2)/day). Air-sea gas exchange of chlorpyrifos varied from net volatilizaiton in East Asia (<40° N) to equilibrium or net deposition in the North Pacific and the Arctic.

  9. Salt marsh stability modelled in relation to sea level rise

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bartholdy, Jesper; Bartholdy, Anders; Kroon, Aart

    2010-01-01

    Accretion on a natural backbarrier salt marsh was modeled as a function of high tide level, initial salt marsh level and distance to the source. Calibration of the model was based on up to ca 80 year old marker horizons, supplemented by 210Pb/137Cs datings and subsequent measurements of clay...... rise, the marsh at the specific location will eventually drown, whereas - with a sea level rise below this level – it will grow towards the top of the rising tidal frame. The short term variation of salt marsh accretion was found to correlate well with variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation...... - relatively quickly grow above the level of the highest astronomical tide, whereas this - in practice - will never happen for the latter....

  10. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) to Marin Islands NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on Marin...

  11. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 5.1) to Rappahannock NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on...

  12. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) to Bayou Sauvage NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on Bayou...

  13. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) to Mashpee NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on...

  14. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) to Back Bay NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on Back...

  15. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) to Cedar Keys NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on Cedar...

  16. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) to Breton NWR [Draft

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on...

  17. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) to Archie Carr NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on...

  18. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 5.0) to Chassahowitzka NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on...

  19. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) to Grand Bay NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on Grand...

  20. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 5.1) to Blackwater NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on...

  1. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) to Cedar Island NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on Cedar...

  2. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) to Harris Neck NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on...

  3. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) to Pine Island NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on Pine...

  4. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) to Delta NWR : Revised [Draft

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on Delta...

  5. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) to Currituck NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on...

  6. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 5.1) to Nansemond NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on...

  7. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) to Blackbeard Island NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on...

  8. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) to Guam NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on Guam...

  9. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) to Bombay Hook NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on...

  10. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 5.1) to Amagansett NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on...

  11. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) to Wolf Island NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on Wolf...

  12. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) to Monomoy NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on...

  13. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) to Potomac River NWR Complex

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on...

  14. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) to Hobe Sound NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on Hobe...

  15. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) to St. Marks NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on St....

  16. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) to John Heinz NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on John...

  17. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) to Edwin B. Forsythe NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on Edwin...

  18. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) to Swanquarter NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on...

  19. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) to Pinckney Island NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on...

  20. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) to Big Branch Marsh NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — Model SummaryChanges in tidal marsh area and habitat type in response to sea-level rise were modeled using the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) that...

  1. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) to Pelican Island NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on...

  2. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 5.0) to Moosehorn NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on...

  3. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) to Crocodile Lake NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on...

  4. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) to Merritt Island NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on...

  5. NOAA Digital Coast Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding Impacts Viewer

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding Impacts Viewer depicts potential sea level rise and its associated impacts on the nation's coastal areas. These coastal areas...

  6. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) to Cape May NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on Cape...

  7. Grain-size based sea-level reconstruction in the south Bohai Sea during the past 135 kyr

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yi, Liang; Chen, Yanping

    2013-04-01

    Future anthropogenic sea-level rise and its impact on coastal regions is an important issue facing human civilizations. Due to the short nature of the instrumental record of sea-level change, development of proxies for sea-level change prior to the advent of instrumental records is essential to reconstruct long-term background sea-level changes on local, regional and global scales. Two of the most widely used approaches for past sea-level changes are: (1) exploitation of dated geomorphologic features such as coastal sands (e.g. Mauz and Hassler, 2000), salt marsh (e.g. Madsen et al., 2007), terraces (e.g. Chappell et al., 1996), and other coastal sediments (e.g. Zong et al., 2003); and (2) sea-level transfer functions based on faunal assemblages such as testate amoebae (e.g. Charman et al., 2002), foraminifera (e.g. Chappell and Shackleton, 1986; Horton, 1997), and diatoms (e.g. Horton et al., 2006). While a variety of methods has been developed to reconstruct palaeo-changes in sea level, many regions, including the Bohai Sea, China, still lack detailed relative sea-level curves extending back to the Pleistocene (Yi et al., 2012). For example, coral terraces are absent in the Bohai Sea, and the poor preservation of faunal assemblages makes development of a transfer function for a relative sea-level reconstruction unfeasible. In contrast, frequent alternations between transgression and regression has presumably imprinted sea-level change on the grain size distribution of Bohai Sea sediments, which varies from medium silt to coarse sand during the late Quaternary (IOCAS, 1985). Advantages of grainsize-based relative sea-level transfer function approaches are that they require smaller sample sizes, allowing for replication, faster measurement and higher spatial or temporal resolution at a fraction of the cost of detail micro-palaeontological analysis (Yi et al., 2012). Here, we employ numerical methods to partition sediment grain size using a combined database of

  8. An Objective Analysis Method for Surface Residual Current Field in the East China Seas

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Qiang; WANG Cizhen

    2003-01-01

    Since the volume transport across the pycnocline is much smaller than that in the mixed layer, the current in the mixed layer can be regarded as non-divergent. An objective analysis method is deduced based on this hypothesis. The linear combination method is used to solve the non-divergent component of the current field of an ocean basin containing islands,which is equivalent to a mathematical problem of solving a Poisson equation in a multi-connected domain. The method is applied to the Bohai Sea, the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea (ECS). The modeled result is consistent with the current maps constructed by other oceanographers.

  9. Optimisation of sea surface current retrieval using a maximum cross correlation technique on modelled sea surface temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heuzé, Céline; Eriksson, Leif; Carvajal, Gisela

    2017-04-01

    Using sea surface temperature from satellite images to retrieve sea surface currents is not a new idea, but so far its operational near-real time implementation has not been possible. Validation studies are too region-specific or uncertain, due to the errors induced by the images themselves. Moreover, the sensitivity of the most common retrieval method, the maximum cross correlation, to the three parameters that have to be set is unknown. Using model outputs instead of satellite images, biases induced by this method are assessed here, for four different seas of Western Europe, and the best of nine settings and eight temporal resolutions are determined. For all regions, tracking a small 5 km pattern from the first image over a large 30 km region around its original location on a second image, separated from the first image by 6 to 9 hours returned the most accurate results. Moreover, for all regions, the problem is not inaccurate results but missing results, where the velocity is too low to be picked by the retrieval. The results are consistent both with limitations caused by ocean surface current dynamics and with the available satellite technology, indicating that automated sea surface current retrieval from sea surface temperature images is feasible now, for search and rescue operations, pollution confinement or even for more energy efficient and comfortable ship navigation.

  10. Sea Level During Past Warm Periods - Unraveling Interactions Between Climate, Ice, Crust, and Mantle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raymo, M. E.; Mitrovica, J. X.; Rovere, A.; O'Leary, M.; Sandstrom, R. M.; Austermann, J.; Hearty, P. J.; Deconto, R. M.; Pollard, D.

    2015-12-01

    Changes in sea level, whether rapid or gradual, influence the style and preservation of shorelines and near-shore features including fossil reefs, paleo-sea cliffs and scarps, as well as intertidal and subtidal facies and biota. Using insight from modern shoreline systems, members of the PLIOMAX FESD project have mapped mid-Pliocene, MIS11, and MIS5e shorelines at numerous localities around the world and then modeled the effects of subsequent glacial isostatic adjustment on their current position. For MIS5e we find evidence for a rapid rise in sea level in the later phase of the interglacial, consistent with a collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Estimates for maximum sea level during MIS5e, between 6 and 9 m, are in agreement with other studies and imply mass loss from ice sheets at both poles. For MIS11, which appears to have been slightly warmer than MIS5e, our best estimate of sea level rise is 6-13 m, a value subsequently narrowed to 8.5-12 m. Recent advances in ice sheet models also illustrate the potential for a substantial Antarctic contribution to elevated sea-level during MIS5e and other Pliestocene interglacials including MIS11. For the Pliocene interval around 3 Ma, we cannot place useful bounds on sea level because shoreline features have been vertically displaced many tens of meters by mantle dynamic topographic changes of uncertain magnitude and, probably to a lesser degree, by flexure associated with sediment redistribution. However, these once horizontal shorelines, which are sometimes hundreds of kilometers long, provide useful targets against which to measure the performance of time-dependent mantle convection models. Ultimately, the paleo-shoreline data is telling us that when global climate warming is more than 2°C (relative to pre-industrial, or >1°C relative to today), significant loss of ice mass occurs at high latitudes equivalent to a minimum rise in sea level of 6m.

  11. Paleocene sea level movements with a 430,000 year quasi-periodic cyclicity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Briskin, M. (Univ. of Cincinnati, OH (USA)); Fluegeman, R. (Ball State Univ., Muncie, IN (USA))

    1990-04-01

    Sea level movements with quasi-periodicity of 430,000 years are identified in the marine sedimentary units of the Eastern Gulf Coastal Plain of Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia which represent a 5.8 million year record of strandline displacement during Paleocene time. Principal component analysis of the benthic foraminiferal fauna yielded six assemblages which when combined with two other qualitatively derived assemblages provided paleoecologic information which clearly reflects the influence of paleocirculation and paleoclimatic regime of the Eastern Gulf Coastal Plain. The presence of the planktonic foraminiferal taxa Subbotina trinidadensis and Planorotalites pseudomenardii as well as paleolatitudes ranging from 15{degree} N (for the Campeche Shelf) to 25{degree} N (for the Coastal Plain) emphasizes a paleoclimatic regime which is dominantly tropical. A paleoceanographic model was derived which suggests that normal marine waters were brought into the Gulf of Mexico by two major currents. Strandline displacements are related to transgressive and regressive sea level movements in an ice free Paleocene world. The well delineated 430,000 year quasi-periodic cycle observed in the sea level curve is identified as being astronomical in character. These results support the view that changes in the Earth's orbit may trigger changes in the geometry of the Earth's surface in a way which causes sea level to oscillate with a quasi-periodicity of 430,000 years.

  12. Tidal Level Response to Sea-Level Rise in the Yangtze Estuary

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GONG Zheng; ZHANG Chang-kuan; WAN Li-ming; ZUO Jun-cheng

    2012-01-01

    The rise of tidal level in tidal reaches induced by sea-level rise has a large impact on flood control and water supply for the regions around the estuary.This paper focuses on the variations of tidal level response along the tidal reaches in the Yangtze Estuary,as well as the impacts of upstream discharge on tidal level response,due to the sea-level rise of the East China Sea.Based on the Topex/Poseidon altimeter data obtained during the period 1993~2005,a stochastic dynamic analysis was performed and a forecast model was run to predict the sea-level rise of the East China Sea.Two-dimensional hydrodynamic numerical models downscaling from the East China Sea to estuarine areas were implemented to analyze the rise of tidal level along the tidal reaches.In response to the sea-level rise,the tidal wave characteristics change slightly in nearshore areas outside the estuaries,involving the tidal range and the duration of flood and ebb tide.The results show that the rise of tidal level in the tidal reaches due to the sea-level rise has upstream decreasing trends.The step between the stations of Zhangjiagang and Shiyiwei divides the tidal reaches into two parts,in which the tidal level response declines slightly.The rise of tidal level is 1~2.5 mm/a in the upper part,and 4~6 mm/a in the lower part.The stations of Jiangyin and Yanglin,as an example of the upper part and the lower part respectively,are extracted to analyze the impacts of upstream discharge on tidal level response to the sea-level rise.The relation between the rise of tidal level and the upstream discharge can be fitted well with a quadratic function in the upper part.However,the relation is too complicated to be fitted in the lower part because of the tide dominance.For comparison purposes,hourly tidal level observations at the stations of Xuliujing and Yanglin during the period 1993~2009 are adopted.In order to uniform the influence of upstream discharge on tidal level for a certain day each year

  13. Analytical chemistry in the Aegean Sea region: current status.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samanidou, Victoria F

    2012-12-01

    The Eighth Aegean Analytical Chemistry Days Conference took place in Urla, İzmir, Turkey, from 16-20 September 2012. This conference is held every 2 years, organized alternately by analytical chemistry departments of Turkish and Greek universities, so that analytical chemists from the region around the Aegean Sea can exchange experience and knowledge based on their research in a large number of fields. This report summarizes the most interesting presentations and posters pertaining to bioanalytical work.

  14. Sea-level change and projected future flooding along the Egyptian Mediterranean coast

    OpenAIRE

    2015-01-01

    Future sea-level changes along the Mediterranean Egyptian coast (southern Levantine sub-basin) are projected using satellite altimetry data and model simulations. Twenty-one years (1993–2013) of satellite altimetry data, represented by dynamic topography (DT), are examined in light of tide-gauge observations. Current DT changes are examined with respect to five atmospheric/oceanic factors. The qualities of three realizations of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) model are examin...

  15. Slow and Steady: Ocean Circulation. The Influence of Sea Surface Height on Ocean Currents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haekkinen, Sirpa

    2000-01-01

    The study of ocean circulation is vital to understanding how our climate works. The movement of the ocean is closely linked to the progression of atmospheric motion. Winds close to sea level add momentum to ocean surface currents. At the same time, heat that is stored and transported by the ocean warms the atmosphere above and alters air pressure distribution. Therefore, any attempt to model climate variation accurately must include reliable calculations of ocean circulation. Unlike movement of the atmosphere, movement of the ocean's waters takes place mostly near the surface. The major patterns of surface circulation form gigantic circular cells known as gyres. They are categorized according to their general location-equatorial, subtropical, subpolar, and polar-and may run across an entire ocean. The smaller-scale cell of ocean circulation is known' as an eddy. Eddies are much more common than gyres and much more difficult to track in computer simulations of ocean currents.

  16. Sea level rise projections for Northern Europe under RCP8.5

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grinsted, A.; Jevrejeva, S.; Riva, R.E.M.; Dahl-Jensen, D.

    2015-01-01

    Sea level rise poses a significant threat to coastal communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Sea level rise is not uniform globally but is affected by a range of regional factors. In this study, we calculate regional projections of 21st century sea level rise in northern Europe, focusing on the

  17. Sea level rise projections for Northern Europe under RCP8.5

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grinsted, A.; Jevrejeva, S.; Riva, R.E.M.; Dahl-Jensen, D.

    2015-01-01

    Sea level rise poses a significant threat to coastal communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Sea level rise is not uniform globally but is affected by a range of regional factors. In this study, we calculate regional projections of 21st century sea level rise in northern Europe, focusing on the

  18. ENSO-induced inter-annual sea level variability in the Singapore strait

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Soumya, M.; Vethamony, P.; Tkalich, P.

    Sea level data from four tide gauge stations in the SS (Tanjong Pagar, Sultan Shoal, Sembawang and Raffles Lighthouse) for the period 1970-2012 were extracted to study the ENSO-induced interannual sea level variability Sea level during this period...

  19. Comparing tide gauge observations to regional patterns of sea-level change (1961–2003)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slangen, A.B.A.; Van de Wal, R.S.W.; Wada, Y.; Vermeersen, L.L.A.

    2014-01-01

    Although the global mean sea-level budget for the 20th century can now be closed, the understanding of sea-level change on a regional scale is still limited. In this study we compare observations from tide gauges to regional patterns from various contributions to sea-level change to see how much of

  20. Comparing tide gauge observations to regional patterns of sea-level change (1961-2003)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slangen, A. B. A.; van de Wal, R. S. W.; Wada, Y.; Vermeersen, L. L. A.

    2014-01-01

    Although the global mean sea-level budget for the 20th century can now be closed, the understanding of sea-level change on a regional scale is still limited. In this study we compare observations from tide gauges to regional patterns from various contributions to sea-level change to see how much of

  1. Decadal and long-term sea level variability in the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Nidheesh, A.G.; Lengaigne, M.; Vialard, J.; Unnikrishnan, A.S.; Dayan, H.

    Decadal and long-term steric sea level variations over 1966-2007 period in the Indo-Pacific sector were analysed using an ocean general circulation model forced by reanalysis winds. The simulated steric sea level compares favourably with sea level...

  2. Drivers of Holocene sea-level change - using a global database of relative sea-level records from the Northern and Southern Hemisphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horton, Benjamin; Khan, Nicole; Ashe, Erica; Kopp, Robert

    2016-04-01

    Many factors give rise to relative sea-level (RSL) changes that are far from globally uniform. For example, spatially variable sea-level responses arise because of the exchange of mass between ice sheets and oceans. Gravitational, flexural, and rotational processes generate a distinct spatial pattern - or "fingerprint" - of sea-level change associated with each shrinking land ice mass. As a land ice mass shrinks, sea-level rise is greater in areas geographically distal to the ice mass than in areas proximal to it, in large part because the gravitational attraction between the ice mass and the ocean is reduced. Thus, the U.S. mid-Atlantic coastline experiences about 50% of the global average sea-level-rise due to Greenland Ice Sheet melt, but about 120% of the global average due to West Antarctic Ice Sheet melt. Separating the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet contributions during the past 7,000 years requires analysis of sea-level changes from sites in the northern and southern hemisphere. Accordingly we present a global sea-level database for the Holocene to which we apply a hierarchical statistical model to: (1) estimate the Global Mean Sea Level Signal; (2) quantify rates of change; (3) compare rates of change among sites, including full quantification of the uncertainty in their differences; and (4) test hypotheses about the sources of meltwater through their sea-level fingerprints.

  3. Why is mean sea level along the Indian coast higher in the Bay of Bengal than in the Arabian Sea?

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Shankar, D.; Shetye, S.R.

    in the strength of the winds increases the sea level di erence between Vishakhapatnam and Mumbai (Chennai and Manga- lore) by 13% (11%). Sea level see-saws along the coast of the subcontinent, with the southern tip of Sri Lanka 10 20 30 40 0 10 20 30 40...

  4. The SeaWiFS Bio-Optical Archive and Storage System (SeaBASS): Current Architecture and Implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werdell, P. Jeremy; Fargion, Giulietta S. (Editor); McClain, Charles R. (Editor); Bailey, Sean W.

    2002-01-01

    Satellite ocean color missions require an abundance of high-quality in situ measurements for bio-optical and atmospheric algorithm development and post-launch product validation and sensor calibration. To facilitate the assembly of a global data set, the NASA Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view (SeaWiFS) Project developed the Seafaring Bio-optical Archive and Storage System (SeaBASS), a local repository for in situ data regularly used in their scientific analyses. The system has since been expanded to contain data sets collected by the NASA Sensor Intercalibration and Merger for Biological and Interdisciplinary Oceanic Studies (SIMBIOS) Project, as part of NASA Research Announcements NRA-96-MTPE-04 and NRA-99-OES-99. SeaBASS is a well moderated and documented hive for bio-optical data with a simple, secure mechanism for locating and extracting data based on user inputs. Its holdings are available to the general public with the exception of the most recently collected data sets. Extensive quality assurance protocols, comprehensive data and system documentation, and the continuation of an archive and relational database management system (RDBMS) suitable for bio-optical data all contribute to the continued success of SeaBASS. This document provides an overview of the current operational SeaBASS system.

  5. Bangladesh’s dynamic coastal regions and sea-level rise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hugh Brammer

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The physical geography of Bangladesh’s coastal area is more diverse and dynamic than is generally recognised. Failure to recognise this has led to serious misconceptions about the potential impacts of a rising sea-level on Bangladesh with global warming. This situation has been aggravated by accounts giving incorrect information on current rates of coastal erosion and land subsidence. This paper describes physical conditions within individual physiographic regions in Bangladesh’s coastal area based on ground-surveyed information, and it reviews possible area-specific mitigation measures to counter predicted rates of sea-level rise in the 21st century. Two important conclusions are drawn: the adoption of appropriate measures based on knowledge of the physical geography of potentially-affected areas could significantly reduce the currently-predicted displacement of many millions of people; and the impacts of a slowly-rising sea-level are currently much less than those generated by rapidly increasing population pressure on Bangladesh’s available land and water resources and by exposure to existing environmental hazards, and the latter problems need priority attention.

  6. Drivers of Holocene sea-level change in the Caribbean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Nicole S.; Ashe, Erica; Horton, Benjamin P.; Dutton, Andrea; Kopp, Robert E.; Brocard, Gilles; Engelhart, Simon E.; Hill, David F.; Peltier, W. R.; Vane, Christopher H.; Scatena, Fred N.

    2017-01-01

    We present a Holocene relative sea-level (RSL) database for the Caribbean region (5°N to 25°N and 55°W to 90°W) that consists of 499 sea-level index points and 238 limiting dates. The database was compiled from multiple sea-level indicators (mangrove peat, microbial mats, beach rock and acroporid and massive corals). We subdivided the database into 20 regions to investigate the influence of tectonics and glacial isostatic adjustment on RSL. We account for the local-scale processes of sediment compaction and tidal range change using the stratigraphic position (overburden thickness) of index points and paleotidal modeling, respectively. We use a spatio-temporal empirical hierarchical model to estimate RSL position and its rates of change in the Caribbean over 1-ka time slices. Because of meltwater input, the rates of RSL change were highest during the early Holocene, with a maximum of 10.9 ± 0.6 m/ka in Suriname and Guyana and minimum of 7.4 ± 0.7 m/ka in south Florida from 12 to 8 ka. Following complete deglaciation of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) by ∼7 ka, mid-to late-Holocene rates slowed to model constrains the spatial extent of the mid-Holocene highstand. RSL did not exceed the present height during the Holocene, except on the northern coast of South America, where in Suriname and Guyana, RSL attained a height higher than present by 6.6 ka (82% probability). The highstand reached a maximum elevation of +1.0 ± 1.1 m between 5.3 and 5.2 ka. Regions with a highstand were located furthest away from the former LIS, where the effects from ocean syphoning and hydro-isostasy outweigh the influence of subsidence from forebulge collapse.

  7. Investigation of the seasonal spatial variability of the Caspian Sea level by satellite altimetry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safarov, Elnur; Mammadov, Ramiz; Cretaux, Jean-Francois; Arsen, Adalbert; Safarov, Said; Amrahov, Elvin

    2016-07-01

    Sea level fluctuations are among the most outstanding and debated issues of the Caspian Sea. Precipitation, underground water and river input are consistent parts of the inflow of the Caspian Sea water balance. The river input is also considered to be the main driver of the seasonal level changes of the Caspian Sea. Sufficiently large amount of this input is provided by the Volga. Although there is a good network of sea level stations covering the coastline of the sea, these facilities are not capable to reflect the sea level variations over the all surface. Meanwhile, the Caspian Sea is well observed by satellites Jason 1, Jason 2 and ENVISAT. Altimetric data taken from these satellites covers the surface of the sea much better than the data from the in-situ network stations. In this paper we investigate the spatial variability of the sea level that could provide more insight into the influence of river input (especially the Volga river), precipitation and other hydro-meteorological parameters on the Caspian Sea level.The altimetric data was averaged per every 10 square kilometers through all the tracks by means of the pre-prepared program made especially for this work. Also new maps of seasonal spatial variability of amplitude and phase of the annual signal of the Caspian Sea level for each investigated satellite were created by employing ARCGIS software. Moreover, these peaks of sea level amplitude and phase of annual signal results were comparatively analyzed with the corresponding river discharge of the Volga.

  8. Extreme sea-level events in coastal regions

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Unnikrishnan, A.S.

    Simulation, Belur Campus, Bangalore 560 037, India e-mail: uns@cmmacs.ernet.in Extreme sea-level events in coastal regions A recently published report1 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has made an assessment... of the extreme climate events. Their past trends, future projections and vulnerabi- lity and adaptation to such events are discussed in the report. The report was based on the efforts of both the working groups of the IPCC, WG I, which deals with the science...

  9. Sea level changes along the Indian coast: Observations and projections

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Unnikrishnan, A.S.; Kumar, K.R.; Fernandes, S.E.; Michael, G.S.; Patwardhan, S.K.

    analysi s. The model p a- rameters such as atmospheric pressure field at the surface and near surface wind field during a future climate sc e- nario (2041 ? 2060) were used to identify the occurrence of lows, depressions and cyclones to determine... lows, depress ions to c y- clones. Thus, sea level pre s sure fields, at least, on a daily time scale are needed to identify the evolution of atmo s- pheric disturbances. A given disturbance is chara c terized by two parameters, namely, the maximum...

  10. Long-range dependence and sea level forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Ercan, Ali; Abbasov, Rovshan K

    2013-01-01

    This study shows that the Caspian Sea level time series possess long range dependence even after removing linear trends, based on analyses of the Hurst statistic, the sample autocorrelation functions, and the periodogram of the series. Forecasting performance of ARMA, ARIMA, ARFIMA and Trend Line-ARFIMA (TL-ARFIMA) combination models are investigated. The forecast confidence bands and the forecast updating methodology, provided for ARIMA models in the literature, are modified for the ARFIMA models. Sample autocorrelation functions are utilized to estimate the differencing lengths of the ARFIMA

  11. Sea level characterization of a 1100 g sapphire bolometer

    CERN Document Server

    Pécourt, S; Bobin, C; Coron, N; Jesus, M D; Hadjout, J P; Leblanc, J W; Marcillac, P D

    1999-01-01

    A first characterization of a 1100 g sapphire bolometer, performed at sea level and at a working temperature of 40 mK, is presented. Despite perturbations coming from the high-radioactive background and cosmic rays, calibration spectra could be achieved with an internal alpha source and a sup 5 sup 7 Co gamma-ray source: the experimental threshold is 25 keV, while the FWHM resolution is 17.4 keV for the 122 keV peak. Possible heat release effects are discussed, and a new limit of 9x10 sup - sup 1 sup 4 W/g is obtained for sapphire.

  12. Preliminary investigation of the effects of sea-level rise on groundwater levels in New Haven, Connecticut

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjerklie, David M.; Mullaney, John R.; Stone, Janet R.; Skinner, Brian J.; Ramlow, Matthew A.

    2012-01-01

    Global sea level rose about 0.56 feet (ft) (170 millimeters (mm)) during the 20th century. Since the 1960s, sea level has risen at Bridgeport, Connecticut, about 0.38 ft (115 mm), at a rate of 0.008 ft (2.56 mm + or - 0.58 mm) per year. With regional subsidence, and with predicted global climate change, sea level is expected to continue to rise along the northeast coast of the United States through the 21st century. Increasing sea levels will cause groundwater levels in coastal areas to rise in order to adjust to the new conditions. Some regional climate models predict wetter climate in the northeastern United States under some scenarios. Scenarios for the resulting higher groundwater levels have the potential to inundate underground infrastructure in lowlying coastal cities. New Haven is a coastal city in Connecticut surrounded and bisected by tidally affected waters. Monitoring of water levels in wells in New Haven from August 2009 to July 2010 indicates the complex effects of urban influence on groundwater levels. The response of groundwater levels to recharge and season varied considerably from well to well. Groundwater temperatures varied seasonally, but were warmer than what was typical for Connecticut, and they seem to reflect the influence of the urban setting, including the effects of conduits for underground utilities. Specific conductance was elevated in many of the wells, indicating the influence of urban activities or seawater in Long Island Sound. A preliminary steady-state model of groundwater flow for part of New Haven was constructed using MODFLOW to simulate current groundwater levels (2009-2010) and future groundwater levels based on scenarios with a rise of 3 ft (0.91 meters (m)) in sea level, which is predicted for the end of the 21st century. An additional simulation was run assuming a 3-ft rise in sea level combined with a 12-percent increase in groundwater recharge. The model was constructed from existing hydrogeologic information for the

  13. Responding to rising sea levels in the Mekong Delta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smajgl, A.; Toan, T. Q.; Nhan, D. K.; Ward, J.; Trung, N. H.; Tri, L. Q.; Tri, V. P. D.; Vu, P. T.

    2015-02-01

    Vietnamese communities in the Mekong Delta are faced with the substantial impacts of rising sea levels and salinity intrusion. The construction of embankments and dykes has historically been the principal strategy of the Vietnamese government to mitigate the effects of salinity intrusion on agricultural production. A predicted sea-level rise of 30 cm by the year 2050 is expected to accelerate salinity intrusion. This study combines hydrologic, agronomic and behavioural assessments to identify effective adaptation strategies reliant on land-use change (soft options) and investments in water infrastructure (hard options). As these strategies are managed within different policy portfolios, the political discussion has polarized between choices of either soft or hard options. This paper argues that an ensemble of hard and soft policies is likely to provide the most effective results for people's livelihoods in the Mekong Delta. The consequences of policy deliberations are likely to be felt beyond the Mekong Delta as levels of rice cultivation there also affect national and global food security.

  14. Sea Level Rise Impacts on Precipitation-Induced Flooding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buzzanga, B. A.

    2016-12-01

    Global sea level rise (SLR) is one of the most immediate impacts of climate change, and poses a significant threat to low-lying coastal communities worldwide. The metropolitan region of Hampton Roads in Southeastern Virginia is one such community, and one where knowledge surrounding SLR is rapidly accumulating. However, most of the research is focused exclusively on surface water processes despite the presence of a shallow groundwater table closely connected to them. SLR will continue to cause the groundwater table to increase in tidally influenced areas of Hampton Road, and thereby decrease storage capacity of the unsaturated zone (UZ). This study investigates how reduced unsaturated storage changes the rainfall-runoff relationship and the resulting areal-flood hazard spectrum. We choose a tidal watershed in Hampton Roads to conduct a conceptual yet realistic simulation of the hydrologic cycle using ten years of historical precipitation data with SLR scenarios from 0 m (current) to 2 m in 0.3048 m intervals. Groundwater infiltration from the land surface, recharge, and evapotranspiration are simulated using the Unsaturated-Zone Flow package with MODFLOW-NWT.Groundwater rise is simulated by increasing the stage of the tidal stream that drains the watershed. Precipitation and overland runoff are simulated using the surface water model SWMM. The two models are coupled to permit the exchange of boundary condition values at each time step. An ensemble approach is taken to test model sensitivity to parameters configurations and determine the contribution of SLR to runoff generation. The primary result of this study quantifies the relationship between SLR and runoff which enables decision makers to more effectively plan for, minimize risk of, and adapt to flooding hazards. This investigation also assesses how water content in the UZ changes in response to precipitation for different SLR scenarios. This result has widespread importance, such as decisions in crop choice or

  15. Estimation of Peak Water Level in Pearl River Estuary under the Background of Sea Level Rise

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    KONG; Lan; CHEN; Xiao-hong; ZHUANG; Cheng-bin; CHEN; Dong-wei

    2012-01-01

    [Objective] The study aimed to predict the peak water level in Pearl River Estuary under the background of sea level rise. [Method] The changing trends of peak water level at Denglongshan station and Hengmen station were analyzed firstly on the basis of regression models, and then sea level rise in Pearl River Estuary in 2050 was predicted to estimate the 1-in-50-year peak water level in the same year. [Result] Regression analyses showed that the increasing rate of peak water level over past years was 6.3 mm/a at Denglongshan station and 5.8 mm/a at Hengmen station. In addition, if sea level will rise by 20, 30 and 60 cm respectively in 2050, it was predicted that the 1-in-50-year peak water level will reach 3.04, 3.14 and 3.44 m at Denglongshan station, and 3.19, 3.29 and 3.59 m at Hengmen station separately. [Conclusion] The estimation of peak water level in Pearl River Estuary could provide theoretical references for water resources planning.

  16. Sea-level trend in the South China Sea observed from 20 years of along-track satellite altimetric data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cheng, Yongcun; Xu, Qing; Andersen, Ole Baltazar

    2014-01-01

    The sea-level trend in the South China Sea (SCS) is investigated based on 20 years of along-track data from TOPEX and Jason-1/2 satellite altimetry. The average sea-level rise over all the regions in the study area is observed to have a rate of 5.1 ± 0.8 mm year-1 for the period from 1993 to 2012....... The steric sea level contributes 45% to the observed sea-level trend. These results are consistent with previous studies. In addition, the results demonstrate that the maximum sea-level rise rate of 8.4 mm year-1 is occurring off the east coast of Vietnam and eastern part of SCS. During 2010-2011, the La...... Niña event was highly correlated with the dramatic sea-level rise in the SCS; La Niña events were also associated with the maximum rate of sea rise off the east coast of Vietnam, which occurred during 1993 and 2012. We also evaluated the trends in the geophysical (e.g. dynamical atmospheric correction...

  17. Postglacial relative sea-level history of the Prince Rupert area, British Columbia, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Letham, Bryn; Martindale, Andrew; Macdonald, Rebecca; Guiry, Eric; Jones, Jacob; Ames, Kenneth M.

    2016-12-01

    This paper presents a history of relative sea level (RSL) change for the last 15,000 years in the Prince Rupert region on the northern coast of British Columbia, Canada. One hundred twenty-three radiocarbon ages of organic material from isolation basin cores, sediment sequence exposures, and archaeological sites having a recognized relation to past sea levels constrain postglacial RSL. The large number of new measurements relating to past sea-level provides a well constrained RSL curve that differs in significant ways from previously published results. After deglaciation following the Last Glacial Maximum, the region experienced an isostatically-induced rapid RSL drop from as much 50 m asl to as low as -6.3 m asl in as little as a few centuries between 14,500 BP and 13,500 BP. After a lowstand below current sea level for about 2000 years during the terminal Pleistocene, RSL rose again to a highstand at least 6 m asl after the end of the Younger Dryas. RSL slowly dropped through the Holocene to close to its current position by 2000-1500 BP, with some potential fluctuations between 3500 and 1500 BP. This study highlights variation in RSL histories across relatively short distances, which must be accounted for by local RSL reconstructions such as this one. This RSL curve aided in the identification of an 8000-9000 year old archaeological site on a 10-12 m asl terrace, which is currently the earliest dated archaeological site in the area, and it provides guidance for searching for even older archaeological remains. We highlight the utility and potential of this refined RSL history for developing surveys for other archaeological sites associated with paleoshorelines.

  18. Geomorphic expression of late Quaternary sea level changes along the southern Saurashtra coast, western India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Nilesh Bhatt; Uday Bhonde

    2006-08-01

    Geomorphic expression of land-sea interaction is preserved in the form of abandoned cliffs, marine terraces,shore platforms and marine notches along the southern Saurashtra coast. These features have been used to ascertain the magnitude of sea level changes during late Quaternary.Notch morphology and associated biological encrustation have been used to estimate the magnitude and duration of palaeo-sea strands.Marine notches and other erosive features occurring between 12 and 15 m above the present Biological Mean Sea Level (BMSL) are attributed to the last interglacial corresponding to the Marine Isotopic Stage 5 (MIS-5). However,6 to 9 m upliftment of the coastal fringe is attributed to this sea level.The second major high sea strand was identified during the mid-Holocene when the sea rose 2 m above the present level.Notches corresponding to this high sea level are recorded 4 to 5 m above the present BMSL.

  19. Combined effects of projected sea level rise, storm surge, and peak river flows on water levels in the Skagit Floodplain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamman, Josheph J; Hamlet, Alan F.; Fuller, Roger; Grossman, Eric

    2016-01-01

    Current understanding of the combined effects of sea level rise (SLR), storm surge, and changes in river flooding on near-coastal environments is very limited. This project uses a suite of numerical models to examine the combined effects of projected future climate change on flooding in the Skagit floodplain and estuary. Statistically and dynamically downscaled global climate model scenarios from the ECHAM-5 GCM were used as the climate forcings. Unregulated daily river flows were simulated using the VIC hydrology model, and regulated river flows were simulated using the SkagitSim reservoir operations model. Daily tidal anomalies (TA) were calculated using a regression approach based on ENSO and atmospheric pressure forcing simulated by the WRF regional climate model. A 2-D hydrodynamic model was used to estimate water surface elevations in the Skagit floodplain using resampled hourly hydrographs keyed to regulated daily flood flows produced by the reservoir simulation model, and tide predictions adjusted for SLR and TA. Combining peak annual TA with projected sea level rise, the historical (1970–1999) 100-yr peak high water level is exceeded essentially every year by the 2050s. The combination of projected sea level rise and larger floods by the 2080s yields both increased flood inundation area (+ 74%), and increased average water depth (+ 25 cm) in the Skagit floodplain during a 100-year flood. Adding sea level rise to the historical FEMA 100-year flood resulted in a 35% increase in inundation area by the 2040's, compared to a 57% increase when both SLR and projected changes in river flow were combined.

  20. Modeling radium distribution in coastal aquifers during sea level changes: The Dead Sea case

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiro, Yael; Yechieli, Yoseph; Voss, Clifford I.; Starinsky, Abraham; Weinstein, Yishai

    2012-01-01

    We present a new approach to studying the behavior of radium isotopes in a coastal aquifer. In order to simulate radium isotope distributions in the dynamic flow field of the Dead Sea aquifer, a multi-species density dependent flow model (SUTRA-MS) was used. Field data show that the activity of 226Ra decreases from 140 to 60 dpm/L upon entering the aquifer from the Dead Sea, and then further decreases linearly due to mixing with Ra-poor fresh water. On the other hand, an increase is observed in the activity of the shorter-lived isotopes (up to 52 dpm/L 224Ra and 31 dpm/L 223Ra), which are relatively low in Dead Sea water (up to 2.5 dpm/L 224Ra and 0.5 dpm/L 223Ra). The activities of the short lived radium isotopes also decrease with decreasing salinity, which is due to the effect of salinity on the adsorption of radium. The relationship between 224Ra and salinity suggests that the adsorption partition coefficient (K) is linearly related to salinity. Simulations of the steady-state conditions, show that the distance where equilibrium activity is attained for each radium isotope is affected by the isotope half-life, K and the groundwater velocity, resulting in a longer distance for the long-lived radium isotopes. K affects the radium distribution in transient conditions, especially that of the long-lived radium isotopes. The transient conditions in the Dead Sea system, with a 1 m/yr lake level drop, together with the radium field data, constrains K to be relatively low (226Ra cannot be explained by adsorption, and it is better explained by removal via coprecipitation, probably with barite or celestine.

  1. Sea-level rise modeling handbook: Resource guide for coastal land managers, engineers, and scientists

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doyle, Thomas W.; Chivoiu, Bogdan; Enwright, Nicholas M.

    2015-08-24

    Global sea level is rising and may accelerate with continued fossil fuel consumption from industrial and population growth. In 2012, the U.S. Geological Survey conducted more than 30 training and feedback sessions with Federal, State, and nongovernmental organization (NGO) coastal managers and planners across the northern Gulf of Mexico coast to evaluate user needs, potential benefits, current scientific understanding, and utilization of resource aids and modeling tools focused on sea-level rise. In response to the findings from the sessions, this sea-level rise modeling handbook has been designed as a guide to the science and simulation models for understanding the dynamics and impacts of sea-level rise on coastal ecosystems. The review herein of decision-support tools and predictive models was compiled from the training sessions, from online research, and from publications. The purpose of this guide is to describe and categorize the suite of data, methods, and models and their design, structure, and application for hindcasting and forecasting the potential impacts of sea-level rise in coastal ecosystems. The data and models cover a broad spectrum of disciplines involving different designs and scales of spatial and temporal complexity for predicting environmental change and ecosystem response. These data and models have not heretofore been synthesized, nor have appraisals been made of their utility or limitations. Some models are demonstration tools for non-experts, whereas others require more expert capacity to apply for any given park, refuge, or regional application. A simplified tabular context has been developed to list and contrast a host of decision-support tools and models from the ecological, geological, and hydrological perspectives. Criteria were established to distinguish the source, scale, and quality of information input and geographic datasets; physical and biological constraints and relations; datum characteristics of water and land components

  2. Implementation of CGPS at Estartit, Ibiza and Barcelona harbours for sea level monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez-Benjamin, J. J.; Ortiz Castellon, M.; Martinez-Garcia, M.; Perez, B.; Bosch, E.; Termens, A.; Martinez de Oses, X.

    2009-12-01

    The determination of global and regional mean sea level variations with accura-cies better than 1 mm/yr is a critical problem, the resolution of which is central to the current debate on climate change and its impact on the environment. Highly accurate time series from both satellite altimetry and tide gauges are needed. Measuring the sea surface height with in-situ tide gauges and GPS receivers pro-vides an efficient way to control the long term stability of the radar altimeters and other applications as the vertical land motion and studies of sea level change. L’Estartit tide gauge is a classical floating tide gauge set up in l’Estartit harbour (NE Spain) in 1990. Data are taken in graphics registers from which each two hours the mean value is recorded in an electronic support and delivered to the Permanent Service for Mean Sea level (PSMSL). Periodic surveying campaigns along the year are carried out for monitoring possible vertical movement of the geodetic benchmark adjacent to the tide gauge. Puertos del Estado (Spanish Harbours) installed the tide gauge station at Ibiza har-bour in January 2003 and a near GPS reference station. The station belongs to the REDMAR network, composed at this moment by 21 stations distributed along the whole Spanish waters, including also the Canary islands (http://www.puertos.es). The tide gauge also belongs to the ESEAS (European Sea Level) network. A description of the actual infrastructure at Ibiza, Barcelona and l’Estartit har-bours is presented.The main objective is the implementation of these harbours as a precise geodetic areas for sea level monitoring and altimeter calibration. Actually is a CGPS with a radar tide gauge from Puertos del Estado and a GPS belonging to Puerto de Barcelona. A precise levelling has been made by the Cartographic Insti-tute of Catalonia, ICC. The instrumentation of sea level measurements has been improved by providing the Barcelona site with a radar tide gauge Datamar 3000C device and a

  3. North Atlantic teleconnection patterns signature on sea level from satellite altimetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iglesias, Isabel; Lázaro, Clara; Joana Fernandes, M.; Bastos, Luísa

    2015-04-01

    Presently, satellite altimetry record is long enough to appropriately study inter-annual signals in sea level anomaly and ocean surface circulation, allowing the association of teleconnection patterns of low-frequency variability with the response of sea level. The variability of the Atlantic Ocean at basin-scale is known to be complex in space and time, with the dominant mode occurring on annual timescales. However, interannual and decadal variability have already been documented in sea surface temperature. Both modes are believed to be linked and are known to influence sea level along coastal regions. The analysis of the sea level multiannual variability is thus essential to understand the present climate and its long-term variability. While in the open-ocean sea level anomaly from satellite altimetry currently possesses centimetre-level accuracy, satellite altimetry measurements become invalid or of lower accuracy along the coast due to the invalidity of the wet tropospheric correction (WTC) derived from on-board microwave radiometers. In order to adequately analyse long-term changes in sea level in the coastal regions, satellite altimetry measurements can be recovered by using an improved WTC computed from recent algorithms that combine wet path delays from all available observations (remote sensing scanning imaging radiometers, GNSS stations, microwave radiometers on-board satellite altimetry missions and numerical weather models). In this study, a 20-year (1993-2013) time series of multi-mission satellite altimetry (TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, OSTM/Jason-2, ERS-1/2, ENVISAT, CryoSat-2 and SARAL), are used to characterize the North Atlantic (NA) long-term variability on sea level at basin-scale and analyse its response to several atmospheric teleconnections known to operate on the NA. The altimetry record was generated using an improved coastal WTC computed from either the GNSS-derived path Delay or the Data Combination methodologies developed by University of

  4. Migraine in the Andes and headache at sea level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Appenzeller, O; Minko, T; Qualls, C; Pozharov, V; Gamboa, J; Gamboa, A; Wang, Y

    2005-12-01

    In Cerro de Pasco (CP), Peru (altitude 4338 m) 24% of men have migraine with aura. We studied 30 men. Twenty CP natives, examined in CP, were rated using a chronic mountain sickness (CMS) score to separate controls (10) from those with CMS (10), a maladaptation syndrome in natives to altitude which includes severe, recurring headache. We collected white cells in CP and, from the same men, within 1 h of arrival in Lima (150 m above sea level). Ten normal US men volunteered white cells for comparison. After RNA extraction we assessed gene expression by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction. Low ATP1A1 subunit of the ATPase gene mRNA expression in CP was correlated with headache (P=0.002), acral paraesthesias (P=0.004) and CMS score (P<0.001). ATP1A1 subunit expression was increased in all Andeans in Lima (P<0.001). There were no differences between Andean controls in Lima and US controls. Manipulation of Na+/K+ATPase could offer relief for migraineurs at sea level.

  5. Diurnal variations of serum erythropoietin at sea level and altitude

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klausen, T; Poulsen, T D; Fogh-Andersen, N;

    1996-01-01

    This study tested the hypothesis that the diurnal variations of serum-erythropoietin concentration (serum-EPO) observed in normoxia also exist in hypoxia. The study also attempted to investigate the regulation of EPO production during sustained hypoxia. Nine subjects were investigated at sea level...... and during 4 days at an altitude of 4350 m. Median sea level serum-EPO concentration was 6 (range 6-13) U.l-1. Serum-EPO concentration increased after 18 and 42 h at altitude, [58 (range 39-240) and 54 (range 36-340) U.l-1, respectively], and then decreased after 64 and 88 h at altitude [34 (range 18......-290) and 31 (range 17-104) U.l-1, respectively]. These changes of serum-EPO concentration were correlated to the changes in arterial blood oxygen saturation (r = -0.60, P = 0.0009), pH (r = 0.67, P = 0.003), and in-vivo venous blood oxygen half saturation tension (r = -0.68, P = 0.004) but not to the changes...

  6. Vertical Structure of Baroclinic Currents over Northern South China Sea Continental Slope

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    邱章

    2001-01-01

    The 28.6 d time series of ADCP currents at 27 depth levels, (11,15,…,115m) which are obtained from a mooring station at the northern South China Sea continental slope, have been decomposed into barotropic and baroclinic components. The emphasis in this paper is on the analysis of the time series of baroclinic currents by means of several methods,such as the tidal harmonic analysis, the power spectra and the kinetic energy estimation.The major results are as follows: (1) In respect of the baroclinic currents, the values of several parameters first decrease and then increase with depth. These parameters include the temporal mean value of the cross-shelf component, the standard deviations, the amplitudes of K1 constituents, the mean eddy kinetic energy, as well as the significant peaks of the power spectra of the cross-shelf components. (2) The diurnal period of the baroclinic currents is dominant. The diumal tidal current rotates clockwise and the major axis of current ellipse is located along the directions of NW-SE. The vertical distribution of the phases of the diurnal constituent varies with the different water layers. Around the 67m depth level, the phase changes very much.At those layers far away from the 67m depth level, the vertical distribution of the phase is relatively stable, but with opposite phases in the upper and lower water layers. For the upper layers between the surface and 67m,the phases are around 300°; for the lower layers between 67m and 115m, the phases are around 120° .(3) The mean eddy kinetic energy of the baroclinic current is quite large, accounting for 41% of the mean kinetic energy of the measured currents. The cross-shelf component is larger than the along-shelf one. The two baroclinic current components correspond to the major and minor axes of the current ellipse of the diurnal constituent respectively. (4) The power spectra of the baroclinic currents show a singnificant period of about 24h, with 23.6h at both 19m and 99m and 24

  7. Geomorphic interaction among climate, sea levels and karst groundwater: the Taranto area (South of Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spilotro, Giuseppe; Fidelibus, Maria Dolores; Argentiero, Ilenia; Pellicani, Roberta; Parisi, Alessandro; Di Modugno, Antonella

    2017-04-01

    The area of Taranto (Apulia region, Italy) has an extraordinary environmental and landscape value, which derives from its specific geological, geomorphological and hydrogeological conditions: they represent the effect of a complex mechanism of interaction in the geological time among the sea, its level variations and stands driven by climate changes, karst groundwater and the geo lithological frame. The knowledge of this interaction spans over two very different time duration: the first is subsequent to the sedimentary pleistocenic deposition and diagenesis and lasts until the late Holocene; the second spans over a more limited time durations, from the LIA until today, and its knowledge is mainly based on hystorical topographic records and reports. The general geological and stratigraphical setting is represented by marine deposits, which fill the Bradanic Trough, shaped in the upper part as marine terraces bordering the W and SW side of the Murgian carbonate platform (Apulia, South of Italy) as well. This latter constitutes an important karst hydro-structure, fed by precipitation, bordered on the opposite side of the Bradanic Trough by the Adriatic Sea. Fresh groundwater hosted in the huge coastal aquifer freely flows towards the Adriatic coast, while on the opposite W-NW side, the continuous confinement by the impermeable filling of the trough, forces the underground drainage of the aquifer towards the Ionian Sea just in the Taranto area. The overall flow rate of the groundwater through submarine and subaerial coastal springs, according to the current sea level, is significant and currently estimated in about 18 m3/sec. Climate changes have forced over geological time, but also in shorter periods, sea level changes and stands, consequently correlated to groundwater levels. This allowed genesis of selected karst levels, of regional extension, both at the surface or underground, which arise as typical forms, namely polje and karst plane inland, terraces on the sea

  8. The Twentieth-Century Sea Level Budget: Recent Progress and Challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jevrejeva, S.; Matthews, A.; Slangen, A.

    2017-01-01

    For coastal areas, given the large and growing concentration of population and economic activity, as well as the importance of coastal ecosystems, sea level rise is one of the most damaging aspects of the warming climate. Huge progress in quantifying the cause of sea level rise and closure of sea level budget for the period since the 1990s has been made mainly due to the development of the global observing system for sea level components and total sea levels. We suggest that a large spread (1.2 ± 0.2-1.9 ± 0.3 mm year-1) in estimates of sea level rise during the twentieth century from several reconstructions demonstrates the need for and importance of the rescue of historical observations from tide gauges, with a focus on the beginning of the twentieth century. Understanding the physical mechanisms contributing to sea level rise and controlling the variability of sea level over the past few 100 years are a challenging task. In this study, we provide an overview of the progress in understanding the cause of sea level rise during the twentieth century and highlight the main challenges facing the interdisciplinary sea level community in understanding the complex nature of sea level changes.

  9. Regional Sea Level Variation: California Coastal Subsidence (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blewitt, G.; Hammond, W. C.; Nerem, R.

    2013-12-01

    Satellite altimetry over the last two decades has measured variations in geocentric sea level (GSL), relative to the Earth system center of mass, providing valuable data to test models of physical oceanography and the effects of global climate change. The societal impacts of sea level change however relate to variations in local sea level (LSL), relative to the land at the coast. Therefore, assessing the impacts of sea level change requires coastal measurements of vertical land motion (VLM). Indeed, ΔLSL = ΔGSL - ΔVLM, with subsidence mapping 1:1 into LSL. Measurements of secular coastal VLM also allow tide-gauge data to test models of GSL over the last century in some locations, which cannot be provided by satellite data. Here we use GPS geodetic data within 15 km of the US west coast to infer regional, secular VLM. A total of 89 GPS stations met the criteria that time series span >4.5 yr, and do not have obvious non-linear variation, as may be caused by local instability. VLM rates for the GPS stations are derived in the secular reference frame ITRF2008, which aligns with the Earth system center of mass to ×0.5 mm/yr. We find that regional VLM has different behavior north and south of the Mendocino Triple Junction (MTJ). The California coast has a coherent regional pattern of subsidence averaging 0.5 mm/yr, with an increasing trend to the north. This trend generally matches GIA model predictions. Around San Francisco Bay, the observed coastal subsidence of 1.0 mm/yr coherently decreases moving away from the Pacific Ocean to very small subsidence on the east shores of the bay. This gradient is likely caused by San Andreas-Hayward Fault tectonics, and possibly by differential surface loading across the bay and Sacramento-San Joachim River Delta. Thus in addition to the trend in subsidence from GIA going northward along the California coast, tectonics may also play a role where the plate boundary fault system approaches the coast. In contrast, we find that VLM

  10. Statistical analysis of global surface air temperature and sea level using cointegration methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmith, Torben; Johansen, Søren; Thejll, Peter

    Global sea levels are rising which is widely understood as a consequence of thermal expansion and melting of glaciers and land-based ice caps. Due to physically-based models being unable to simulate observed sea level trends, semi-empirical models have been applied as an alternative for projecting...... of future sea levels. There is in this, however, potential pitfalls due to the trending nature of the time series. We apply a statistical method called cointegration analysis to observed global sea level and surface air temperature, capable of handling such peculiarities. We find a relationship between sea...... level and temperature and find that temperature causally depends on the sea level, which can be understood as a consequence of the large heat capacity of the ocean. We further find that the warming episode in the 1940s is exceptional in the sense that sea level and warming deviates from the expected...

  11. Observed wintertime tidal and subtidal currents over the continental shelf in the northern South China Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ruixiang; Chen, Changsheng; Xia, Huayong; Beardsley, Robert C.; Shi, Maochong; Lai, Zhigang; Lin, Huichan; Feng, Yanqing; Liu, Changjian; Xu, Qichun; Ding, Yang; Zhang, Yu

    2014-08-01

    Synthesis analyses were performed to examine characteristics of tidal and subtidal currents at eight mooring sites deployed over the northern South China Sea (NSCS) continental shelf in the 2006-2007 and 2009-2010 winters. Rotary spectra and harmonic analysis results showed that observed tidal currents in the NSCS were dominated by baroclinic diurnal tides with phases varying both vertically and horizontally. This feature was supported by the CC-FVCOM results, which demonstrated that the diurnal tidal flow over this shelf was characterized by baroclinic Kelvin waves with vertical phase differences varying in different flow zones. The northeasterly wind-induced southwestward flow prevailed over the NSCS shelf during winter, with episodic appearances of mesoscale eddies and a bottom-intensified buoyancy-driven slope water intrusion. The moored current records captured a warm-core anticyclonic eddy, which originated from the southwestern coast of Taiwan and propagated southwestward along the slope consistent with a combination of β-plane and topographic Rossby waves. The eddy was surface-intensified with a swirl speed of >50 cm/s and a vertical scale of ˜400 m. In absence of eddies and onshore deep slope water intrusion, the observed southwestward flow was highly coherent with the northeasterly wind stress. Observations did not support the existence of the permanent wintertime South China Sea Warm Current (SCSWC). The definition of SCSWC, which was based mainly on thermal wind calculations with assumed level of no motion at the bottom, needs to be interpreted with caution since the observed circulation over the NSCS shelf in winter included both barotropic and baroclinic components.

  12. Sea-level probability for the last deglaciation: A statistical analysis of far-field records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanford, J. D.; Hemingway, R.; Rohling, E. J.; Challenor, P. G.; Medina-Elizalde, M.; Lester, A. J.

    2011-12-01

    Pulses of ice-sheet meltwater into the world ocean during the last deglaciation are of great current interest, because these large-scale events offer important test-beds for numerical models of the responses of ocean circulation and climate to meltwater addition. The largest such event has become known as meltwater pulse (mwp) 1a, with estimates of about 20 m of sea-level rise in about 500 years. A second meltwater pulse (mwp-1b) has been inferred from some sea-level records, but its existence has become debated following the presentation of additional records. Even the use of the more ubiquitous mwp-1a in modelling studies has been compromised by debate about its exact age, based upon perceived discrepancies between far-field sea-level records. It is clear that an objective investigation is needed to determine to what level inferred similarities and/or discrepancies between the various deglacial sea-level records are statistically rigorous (or not). For that purpose, we present a Monte Carlo style statistical analysis to determine the highest-probability sea-level history from six key far-field deglacial sea-level records, which fully accounts for realistic methodological and chronological uncertainties in all these records, and which is robust with respect to removal of individual component datasets. We find that sea-level rise started to accelerate into the deglaciation from around 17 ka BP. Within the deglacial rise, there were two distinct increases; one at around the timing of the Bølling warming (14.6 ka BP), and another, much broader, event that just post-dates the end of the Younger Dryas (11.3 ka BP). We interpret these as mwp-1a and mwp-1b, respectively. We find that mwp-1a occurred between 14.3 ka BP and 12.8 ka BP. Highest rates of sea-level rise occurred at ~ 13.8 ka, probably (67% confidence) within the range of 100-130 cm/century, although values may have been as high as 260 cm/century (99% confidence limit). Mwp-1b is robustly expressed as a broad

  13. Carbon choices determine US cities committed to futures below sea level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strauss, Benjamin H; Kulp, Scott; Levermann, Anders

    2015-11-01

    Anthropogenic carbon emissions lock in long-term sea-level rise that greatly exceeds projections for this century, posing profound challenges for coastal development and cultural legacies. Analysis based on previously published relationships linking emissions to warming and warming to rise indicates that unabated carbon emissions up to the year 2100 would commit an eventual global sea-level rise of 4.3-9.9 m. Based on detailed topographic and population data, local high tide lines, and regional long-term sea-level commitment for different carbon emissions and ice sheet stability scenarios, we compute the current population living on endangered land at municipal, state, and national levels within the United States. For unabated climate change, we find that land that is home to more than 20 million people is implicated and is widely distributed among different states and coasts. The total area includes 1,185-1,825 municipalities where land that is home to more than half of the current population would be affected, among them at least 21 cities exceeding 100,000 residents. Under aggressive carbon cuts, more than half of these municipalities would avoid this commitment if the West Antarctic Ice Sheet remains stable. Similarly, more than half of the US population-weighted area under threat could be spared. We provide lists of implicated cities and state populations for different emissions scenarios and with and without a certain collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Although past anthropogenic emissions already have caused sea-level commitment that will force coastal cities to adapt, future emissions will determine which areas we can continue to occupy or may have to abandon.

  14. The analysis of Last Interglacial (MIS 5e) relative sea-level indicators: Reconstructing sea-level in a warmer world

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rovere, A.; Raymo, M.E.; Vacchi, M.; Lorscheid, T; Stocchi, P.; Gómez-Pujolf, L.; Harris, D.L.; Casella, E.; O'Leary, M.J.; Hearty, P.J.

    2016-01-01

    The Last Interglacial (MIS 5e, 128–116 ka) is among the most studied past periods in Earth's history. The climate at that time was warmer than today, primarily due to different orbital conditions, with smaller ice sheets and higher sea-level. Field evidence for MIS 5e sea-level was reported from

  15. 60-year Nordic and arctic sea level reconstruction based on a reprocessed two decade altimetric sea level record and tide gauges

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svendsen, Peter Limkilde; Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg

    Due to the sparsity and often poor quality of data, reconstructing Arctic sea level is highly challenging. We present a reconstruction of Arctic sea level covering 1950 to 2010, using the approaches from Church et al. (2004) and Ray and Douglas (2011). This involves decomposition of an altimetry ...... calibration record into EOFs, and fitting these patterns to a historical tide gauge record....

  16. The analysis of Last Interglacial (MIS 5e) relative sea-level indicators: Reconstructing sea-level in a warmer world

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rovere, A.; Raymo, M.E.; Vacchi, M.; Lorscheid, T; Stocchi, P.; Gómez-Pujolf, L.; Harris, D.L.; Casella, E.; O'Leary, M.J.; Hearty, P.J.

    2016-01-01

    The Last Interglacial (MIS 5e, 128–116 ka) is among the most studied past periods in Earth's history. The climate at that time was warmer than today, primarily due to different orbital conditions, with smaller ice sheets and higher sea-level. Field evidence for MIS 5e sea-level was reported from tho

  17. Dynamics of sea level rise and coastal flooding on a changing landscape

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Bilskie, M. V; Hagen, S. C; Medeiros, S. C; Passeri, D. L

    2014-01-01

    Standard approaches to determining the impacts of sea level rise (SLR) on storm surge flooding employ numerical models reflecting present conditions with modified sea states for a given SLR scenario...

  18. GHRSST Level 4 GAMSSA Global Foundation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (GDS version 1)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on an operational basis at the Australian Bureau...

  19. GHRSST Level 4 RAMSSA Australian Regional Foundation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (GDS version 1)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on an operational basis at the Australian Bureau...

  20. GHRSST Level 4 ODYSSEA Global Foundation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (GDS version 1)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on an operational basis at Ifremer/CERSAT...

  1. GHRSST Level 4 ODYSSEA Eastern Central Pacific Regional Foundation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (GDS version 1)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on an operational basis at Ifremer/CERSAT...

  2. GHRSST Level 4 G1SST Global Foundation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (GDS version 1)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on an operational basis by the JPL OurOcean...

  3. GHRSST Level 4 DMI_OI Global Foundation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (GDS version 2)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on an operational basis by the Danish...

  4. GHRSST Level 4 OSTIA Global Foundation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (GDS versions 1 and 2)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on an operational basis at the UK Met Office...

  5. GHRSST Level 4 MW_OI Global Foundation Sea Surface Temperature analysis (GDS version 2)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) global Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on a 0.25 degree grid at Remote Sensing...

  6. GHRSST Level 4 MUR North America Regional Foundation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (GDS version 1)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced as a retrospective dataset at the JPL Physical...

  7. GHRSST Level 4 OSPO Global Nighttime Foundation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (GDS version 2)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on an operational basis at the Office of...

  8. GHRSST Level 4 OSPO Global Foundation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (GDS version 2)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on an operational basis at the Office of...

  9. TOGA Sea Level Center: Data from the Indian Ocean (NODC Accession 9000251)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This accession contains a scan of the analog publication 'TOGA Sea Level Center: Data from the Indian Ocean'. Abstract from p. iii of the publication: The TOGA Sea...

  10. GHRSST Level 4 AVHRR_AMSR_OI Global Blended Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (GDS version 1)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) global Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on a 0.25 degree grid at the NOAA...

  11. GHRSST Level 4 K10_SST Global 1 meter Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (GDS version 1)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on an operational basis at the Naval...

  12. Trends of sea level rise in the South China Sea during the 1990s: An altimetry result

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    Using 7 years of TOPEX/POSEIDON satellite altimetry data, we have identified a general trend of sea level rising in the South China Sea between January 1993 and December 1999. The estimated bulk rising rate of the entire basin is ~1 cm/a. The rise of sea level appears to be spatially non-homogeneous, which shows a highest rate of 2.7 cm/a in the deep basin west of Luzon and generally Iow (even negafive) rates over the shallow continental shelves. It is believed that the observed rapid rising of sea level is a regional phenomenon and is mainly caused by warming of the upper layer of the South China Sea, which showed a bulk warming rate of 0.15℃/a in the same period. It is also suggested that the observed rising trend is mainly a decadal signal, which is possibly associated with decadal variation of the Pacific warm pool region.

  13. Formation and evolution of the modem warm current system in the East China Sea and the Yellow Sea since the last deglaciation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Tiegang; NAN Qingyun; JIANG Bo; SUN Rongtao; ZHANG Deyu; LI Qing

    2009-01-01

    To reconstruct the formation and evolution process of the warm current system within the East China Sea (ECS) and the Yellow Sea (YS) since the last deglaciation, the paleoceangraphic records in core DGKS9603, core CSH1 and core YSDPI02, which were retrieved from the mainstream of the Kuroshio Current (KC), the edge of the modem Tsushima Warm Current (TWC) and muddy region under cold waters accreted with the Yellow Sea Warm Current (YSWC) respectively, were synthetically analyzed. The results indicate that the formation and evolution of the modem warm current system in the ECS and the YS has been accompanied by the development of the KC and impulse rising of the sea level since the last deglaciation. The influence of the KC on the Okinawa Trough had enhanced since 16 cal kyr BE and synchronously the modem TWC began to develop with the rising of sea level and finally formed at about 8.5 cal kyr BP. The KC had experienced two weakening process during the Heinrich event 1 and the Younger Drays event from 16 to 8.5 cal kyr BP. The period of 7-6 cal kyr BP was the strongest stage of the KC and the TWC since the last deglaciation. The YSWC has appeared at about 6.4 cal kyr BP. Thus,the warm current system of the ECS and the YS has ultimately formed. The weakness of the KC,indicated by the occurrence of Pulleniatina minimum event (PME) during the period from 5.3 to 2.8 cal kyr BE caused the main stream of the TWC to shift eastward to the Pacific Ocean around about 3 cal kyr BP. The process resulted in the intruding of continent shelf cold water mass with rich nutrients. Synchronously, the strength of the YSWC was relatively weak and the related cold water body was active at the early-mid stage of its appearance against the PME background, which resulted in the quick formation of muddy deposit system in the southeastern YS. The strength of the warm current system in the ECS and the YS has enhanced evidently, and approached to the modern condition gradually since 3 cal kyr

  14. Application of adjoint assimilation technique in simulating tides and tidal currents of the Bohai Sea, the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Cheng Yongcun; Lu Xianqing; Liu Yuguang; Xu Qing

    2007-01-01

    Considering the interaction of different tidal waves, an adjoint numerical model is developed to simulate M2, S2, K1 and O1 tidal waves in the Bohai Sea, the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea(B-Y-E) simultaneously. Compared with previous researches, by using the adjoint assimilation technique to inverse open boundary conditions and bottom friction coefficients based on altimetric data from TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P)and tidal gauges data, the precision of the numerical simulation is significantly improved. Selecting 14 days of simulated results after t11e initial warming run to conduct harmonic analysis, the results can show the characteristics of M2, S2, K1 and O1 tidal wave systems perfectly in B-Y-E. Compared with 9 current stations, the calculated harmonic constants of tidal currents for M2 and K1 are in good agreement With the observed ones.

  15. Drivers of sea-level change - using relative sea level records from the North and South Atlantic to fingerprint sources of mid-Holocene ice melt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horton, B.; Khan, N.; Ashe, E.; Kopp, R. E.; Long, A. J.; Gehrels, W. R.

    2015-12-01

    Many factors give rise to relative sea-level (RSL) changes that are far from globally uniform. For example, spatially variable sea-level responses arise because of the exchange of mass between ice sheets and oceans. Gravitational, flexural, and rotational processes generate a distinct spatial pattern - or "fingerprint" - of sea-level change associated with each shrinking land ice mass. As a land ice mass shrinks, sea-level rise is greater in areas geographically distal to the ice mass than in areas proximal to it, in large part because the gravitational attraction between the ice mass and the ocean is reduced. Thus, the U.S. mid-Atlantic coastline experiences about 50% of the global average sea-level-rise due to Greenland Ice Sheet melt, but about 120% of the global average due to West Antarctic Ice Sheet melt. Separating the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet contributions during the past 7,000 years requires analysis of sea-level changes from sites in the northern and southern hemisphere. Accordingly we present sea-level records within a hierarchical statistical modeling to: (1) quantify rates of change; (2) compare rates of change among sites, including full quantification of the uncertainty in their differences; and (3) test hypotheses about the sources of meltwater through their sea-level fingerprints. Preliminary analysis of three sites within our North and South Atlantic sea-level database indicates sea-level gradient in the rate of RSL rise during the mid Holocene between 6000 and 4000 years BP; a greater change in rate is found in Brazil than St Croix than New Jersey, consistent with an increase and then decrease in Greenland Ice Sheet mass.

  16. Quantitative analysis of Paratethys sea level change during the Messinian Salinity Crisis

    Science.gov (United States)

    de la Vara, Alba; Meijer, Paul; van Baak, Christiaan; Marzocchi, Alice; Grothe, Arjen

    2016-04-01

    At the time of the Messinian Salinity Crisis in the Mediterranean Sea (i.e., the Pontian stage of the Paratethys), the Paratethys sea level dropped also. Evidence found in the sedimentary record of the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea has been interpreted to indicate that a sea level fall occurred between 5.6 and 5.5 Ma. Estimates for the magnitude of the fall range between tens of meters to more than 1500 m. The purpose of this study is to provide quantitative insight into the sensitivity of the water level of the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea to the hydrologic budget, for the case that the Paratethys is disconnected from the Mediterranean. Using a Late Miocene bathymetry based on a palaeographic map by Popov et al. (2004) we quantify the fall in sea level, the mean salinity, and the time to reach equilibrium for a wide range of negative hydrologic budgets. By combining our results with (i) estimates derived from a recent global Late Miocene climate simulation and (ii) reconstructed basin salinities, we are able to rule out a drop in sea level of the order of 1000 m in the Caspian Sea during this time period. In the Black Sea, however, such a large sea level fall cannot be fully discarded.

  17. Extracting sea level residual in tidally dominated estuarine environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Jennifer M.; Bolaños, Rodolfo; Howarth, Michael J.; Souza, Alejandro J.

    2012-07-01

    Sea level comprises a mean level, tidal elevation and a residual elevation. Knowledge of what causes maximum water levels is often key in coastal management. However, different methods to extract deviations in water level (residuals) from modelled and observed elevation can give different results. The Dee Estuary, northwest England is a macrotidal estuary that undergoes periodic stratification. It is used here to demonstrate methods to extract the residual water level in response to the following interactive processes: tidal, river-induced stratification and flow, meteorology and waves. Using modelling techniques, the interaction and contribution of different physical processes are investigated. Classical harmonic tidal analysis, model simulations and filtering techniques have been used to "de-tide" the total elevation for short-term (approximately month long) records. Each technique gives a different result highlighting the need to select the correct method for a required study. Analysis of the residual components demonstrates that all processes inducing residuals interact with the tide generating a semi-diurnal residual component. It is suggested that modelling methods enable the full effect of tidal interaction to remain in the residual, whilst harmonic tidal analysis (partly) modify and filtering methods (fully) remove this component of the residual. The analysis methods presented and their influences on the resultant residual are applicable to other study sites. However, when applied specifically to the mouth of the Dee Estuary, the external surge is found to be the main contributor to the total residual, whilst local wind and stratification effects are of secondary importance.

  18. Annual and interannual variations of sea-level anomaly in the Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    Annual and interannual variations of sea-level anomaly (SLA) in the Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea are investigated using altimeter-derived SLA data from 1993 to 2003. It is found that the SLA annual variation in the study area can be divided into three phases with distinctive patterns. During the southwest monsoon (May-September), positive SLA presents in the equatorial region and extends northward along the eastern boundary of the bay, and the SLA distribution in the interior bay appears to be high in the east and low in the west with two cyclonic cells developing in the north and south of the western bay respectively, between which an anticyclonic cell exists. During the early northeast monsoon (October-December), the whole bay is dominated by a large cyclonic cell with the pattern of high SLA in the east and low in the west still retained, and the SLA distribution outside the bay is changed in response to the reversal of the Indian Monsoon Current (IMC) in November. During the late northeast monsoon (January-April), a large anticyclonic cell of SLA develops in the bay with negative SLA prevailing in the equatorial region and extending northward along the eastern boundary of bay. Therefore, the SLA distribution in the interior bay reverses to be high in the west and low in the east. It is suggested that the SLA annual variation in the bay is primarily driven by the local wind stress curl, involving Sverdrup balance while the abrupt SLA variation during the peak of northeast monsoon may be partly caused by the semiannual fluctuation of wind in the equatorial region. This fast adjustment in the interior bay is induced by the upwelling coastal Kelvin wave excited by the decay of Wyrtki jet during December through January. Besides the annual variation, in the bay, there are obvious SLA fluctuations with the periods of 2 and 3~7 a, which are driven by the interannual variability of large-scale wind field in the equatorial region. The coastal Kelvin wave also

  19. Inside the Sea Dragon: The Generations within the Current Peoples Liberation Army Navy Officer Corps

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-10

    force. This includes not just the physical aspects of warfighting but includes how to live in the barracks, interact with people of different ranks, and...by the fact that Fujian was along the coast , and Navies are formed from regions where the people are “following the sea.”57 However, a map analysis...INSIDE THE SEA DRAGON: THE GENERATIONS WITHIN THE CURRENT PEOPLES LIBERATION ARMY NAVY OFFICER CORPS A thesis presented to

  20. Generalized Cauchy model of sea level fluctuations with long-range dependence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ming; Li, Jia-Yue

    2017-10-01

    This article suggests the contributions with two highlights. One is to propose a novel model of sea level fluctuations (sea level for short), which is called the generalized Cauchy (GC) process. It provides a new outlook for the description of local and global behaviors of sea level from a view of fractal in that the fractal dimension D that measures the local behavior of sea level and the Hurst parameter H which characterizes the global behavior of sea level are independent of each other. The other is to show that sea level appears multi-fractal in both spatial and time. Such a meaning of multi-fractal is new in the sense that a pair of fractal parameters (D, H) of sea level is varying with measurement sites and time. This research exhibits that the ranges of D and H of sea level, in general, are 1 ≤ D 0 . 96 for all data records at all measurement sites, implying that strong LRD may be a general phenomenon of sea level. On the other side, regarding with the local behavior, we will reveal that there appears D = 1 or D ≈ 1 for data records at a few stations and at some time, but D > 0 . 96 at most stations and at most time, meaning that sea level may appear highly local irregularity more frequently than weak local one.

  1. Scientific Reticence and Sea Level Rise (Invited Talk)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, J. E.

    2015-12-01

    Caution is an essential ingredient in scientific investigations, as success in science depends on objective skepticism. In some cases a cultural resistance to scientific discovery has seemed to exist and there are other factors that can contribute to scientific reticence. In a case such as ice sheet instability and sea level rise there is a danger that excessive caution might serve to lock in future disasters. I discussed these issues almost a decade ago (in Environ. Res. Lett., 2, 024002, 2007, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/2/2/024002), but given all that has transpired since then, this topic has become even more relevant and urgent. I will discuss the status of this dilemma as I see it.

  2. Arctic sea-level reconstruction analysis using recent satellite altimetry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svendsen, Peter Limkilde; Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg

    2014-01-01

    We present a sea-level reconstruction for the Arctic Ocean using recent satellite altimetry data. The model, forced by historical tide gauge data, is based on empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) from a calibration period; for this purpose, newly retracked satellite altimetry from ERS-1 and -2...... and Envisat has been used. Despite the limited coverage of these datasets, we have made a reconstruction up to 82 degrees north for the period 1950–2010. We place particular emphasis on determining appropriate preprocessing for the tide gauge data, and on validation of the model, including the ability...... to reconstruct known data. The relationship between the reconstruction and climatic variables, such as atmospheric pressure, and climate oscillations, including the Arctic Oscillation (AO), is examined....

  3. Multivariate Regression Approach To Integrate Multiple Satellite And Tide Gauge Data For Real Time Sea Level Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cheng, Yongcun; Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Knudsen, Per

    2010-01-01

    The Sea Level Thematic Assembly Center in the EUFP7 MyOcean project aims at build a sea level service for multiple satellite sea level observations at a European level for GMES marine applications. It aims to improve the sea level related products to guarantee the sustainability and the quality o...... stations with satellite altimetry....

  4. Seasonally reversing current bands across 15 degrees N in the Arabian Sea and their implications

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Antony, M.K.; Shenoi, S.S.C.; Gopalakrishna, V.V.; Murty, C.S.; Rao, D.P.; Murty, V.S.N.; Sastry, J.S.

    Geostrophic currents computed from hydrographic data collected in different months from a section along 15 degrees N in the Arabian Sea show alternate N-S current bands. Flow directions of these bands are found to reverse with the change in season...

  5. Climate Sensitivity, Sea Level, and Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Russell, Gary; Kharecha, Pushker

    2013-01-01

    Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 covariations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea-level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can be accurately inferred from precise palaeoclimate data. Pleistocene climate oscillations yield a fast-feedback climate sensitivity of 3+/-1deg C for a 4 W/sq m CO2 forcing if Holocene warming relative to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is used as calibration, but the error (uncertainty) is substantial and partly subjective because of poorly defined LGM global temperature and possible human influences in the Holocene. Glacial-to-interglacial climate change leading to the prior (Eemian) interglacial is less ambiguous and implies a sensitivity in the upper part of the above range, i.e. 3-4deg C for a 4 W/sq m CO2 forcing. Slow feedbacks, especially change of ice sheet size and atmospheric CO2, amplify the total Earth system sensitivity by an amount that depends on the time scale considered. Ice sheet response time is poorly defined, but we show that the slow response and hysteresis in prevailing ice sheet models are exaggerated. We use a global model, simplified to essential processes, to investigate state dependence of climate sensitivity, finding an increased sensitivity towards warmer climates, as low cloud cover is diminished and increased water vapour elevates the tropopause. Burning all fossil fuels, we conclude, would make most of the planet uninhabitable by humans, thus calling into question strategies that emphasize adaptation to climate change.

  6. Anomalies Thermosteric and Halosteric Contributions to Sea Level Variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Silva, C. E.; Polito, P. S.

    2015-12-01

    Sea level anomaly (SLA) is an important indicator of changes in the Earth's climate system because the oceans have great heat storage capacity. The sea level variation is due to combination of thermosteric and halosteric effects. These two effects play significant roles in the annual cycle of the SLA and maintain the thermohaline circulation. Previous studies only considered the thermosteric effect. The main goal of this study was to determine the regions of the global ocean where the variability induced by halosteric effect is equal or higher than that induced by thermosteric effect. We used temperature and salinity data from World Ocean Atlas 2013 (WOA13) with spatial resolution of 1°x1° during the period of 1955 to 2012 to calculate the coefficient of thermal expansion (α), haline contraction (β) and to estimate their contributions to the SLA variation in the global ocean. Our results showed that the thermosteric effect is dominant in the tropical and subtropical regions due to high insolation throughout the year. However, in polar regions, North Atlantic and North Pacific oceans the halosteric effect was the main contributor to SLA variation. In polar regions, the effect occurs because of the lack in temperature variation and the fact that in this region the precipitation rate exceeds evaporation increasing the freshwater input. In the others, the mechanism is still unknown. The linear trend of thermosteric and halosteric components for 1955-2012 is 0.35mm/yr and 0.07mm/yr, respectively. This results shows that halosteric effect should be considered in the heat storage estimation from satellite data, in situ data and numerical modelling contrasting the previous approaches to SLA.

  7. THE STUDY OF THE YELLOW SEA WARM CURRENT AND ITS SEASONAL VARIABILITY

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU Ling-ling; WU De-xing; LIN Xiao-pei; MA Chao

    2009-01-01

    The Yellow Sea Warm Current (YSWC) penetrates northward along the Yellow Sea Trough, and brings warm and saline water towards the Bohai Sea. The YSWC becomes much less intrusive in summer and is limited mostly in the southern trough, contrasting with a deep winter penetration well into the trough. The seasonal variability of the YSWC has prompted a debate regarding which controls the YSWC and its seasonal variability. In this article, the annual mean and seasonal variability of the YSWC was examined by using a 3-D ocean model together with several experiments. The results show that in the annual mean the YSWC is a compensating current firstly for the southward Korea Coastal Current (KCC), which is mainly caused by the Kuroshio Current (KC). The local wind-stress forcing plays an important but secondary role. However, the local monsoonal forcing plays a prominent role in modulating the seasonal variability. A deep northwestward intrusion of the YSWC in winter, for instance, is mainly due to a robustly developed China Coastal Current (CCC) which draws water along the Yellow Sea trough to feed a southward flow all the way from the Bohai Sea to the Taiwan Strait.

  8. A benchmark study of the sea-level equation in GIA modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinec, Zdenek; Klemann, Volker; van der Wal, Wouter; Riva, Riccardo; Spada, Giorgio; Simon, Karen; Blank, Bas; Sun, Yu; Melini, Daniele; James, Tom; Bradley, Sarah

    2017-04-01

    The sea-level load in glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) is described by the so called sea-level equation (SLE), which represents the mass redistribution between ice sheets and oceans on a deforming earth. Various levels of complexity of SLE have been proposed in the past, ranging from a simple mean global sea level (the so-called eustatic sea level) to the load with a deforming ocean bottom, migrating coastlines and a changing shape of the geoid. Several approaches to solve the SLE have been derived, from purely analytical formulations to fully numerical methods. Despite various teams independently investigating GIA, there has been no systematic intercomparison amongst the solvers through which the methods may be validated. The goal of this paper is to present a series of benchmark experiments designed for testing and comparing numerical implementations of the SLE. Our approach starts with simple load cases even though the benchmark will not result in GIA predictions for a realistic loading scenario. In the longer term we aim for a benchmark with a realistic loading scenario, and also for benchmark solutions with rotational feedback. The current benchmark uses an earth model for which Love numbers have been computed and benchmarked in Spada et al (2011). In spite of the significant differences in the numerical methods employed, the test computations performed so far show a satisfactory agreement between the results provided by the participants. The differences found can often be attributed to the different approximations inherent to the various algorithms. Literature G. Spada, V. R. Barletta, V. Klemann, R. E. M. Riva, Z. Martinec, P. Gasperini, B. Lund, D. Wolf, L. L. A. Vermeersen, and M. A. King, 2011. A benchmark study for glacial isostatic adjustment codes. Geophys. J. Int. 185: 106-132 doi:10.1111/j.1365-

  9. Modeling storm and sea level rise impacts on marsh transgression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carr, J. A.; Guntenspergen, G. R.; Kirwan, M. L.

    2016-12-01

    Coastal salt marsh systems provide critical ecosystem services, including key habitat and coastal protection. Both lateral extent, and vertical stability of salt marshes to sea level rise have been shown to be functions of both biotic, and abiotic drivers and feedbacks. As a result, the ecogeomorphic evolution of the system can exhibit strong non-linearities, discontinuities and thresholds. We developed a two-dimensional transect model to explore controls on marsh lateral extent, vertical stability and the potential for marsh transgression inland and upland. Salt marsh and upland regions in the model are discretized in 1 m increments with inundation frequency determined by the elevation of the individual cells, organogenic soil formation and mineral deposition rates, and the history of stochastic water levels. The transect extends from an idealized back barrier bay across the salt marsh platform and into the upland forest and is forced with auto and cross correlated synthetic stochastic wind speed, wind direction and water levels. The model incorporates key feedbacks between fetch, wave growth and subsequent lateral erosion rates and sediment supply to the marsh platform. Deposition of mineral sediment from the bay and/or internal ponds onto the marsh platform cells is dependent both on the inundation frequency and distance from a marsh edge. For each element along the transect, a Markov chain successional model was implemented that considers six distinct states, grass/saltmarsh, seedling, sapling, tree, dead standing tree, and bare. A non-static transition probability matrix, dependent on both inundation of the element and the prior vegetation state, was used in order to allow for feedbacks, both positive and negative, among different vegetation states and environmental drivers. The model was used to examine the qualitative behavior of the coupled systems under varied rates of sea level rise, external sediment supply, wind and storm statistics, tidal range, upland

  10. The history of Post-Miocene sea level change: Inferences from stratigraphic modeling of Enewetak Atoll

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinn, Terrence M.

    1991-04-01

    The history of post-Miocene sea level change has been investigated using a quantitative, one-dimensional stratigraphic forward model. The stratigraphic model produces synthetic stratigraphies, including mineralogy and sediment age versus depth, in response to changes in sea level, subsidence, sedimentation, and diagenesis. Model outputs, using sea level curves inferred from passive margin sequence stratigraphy and deep-sea foraminiferal oxygen isotope stratigraphy, were compared to the post-Miocene stratigraphy of Enewetak Atoll. Modeling results support high-frequency (104 to 105 years) fluctuations of post-Miocene sea level. Post-Miocene sea level elevations significantly greater than modern sea level elevation are not easily reconciled with the stratigraphy of Enewetak Atoll. Model/data fit is maximized when a rapid subsidence rate for Enewetak Atoll is used. Alternatively, model/data fit may be maximized using a lower subsidence rate for Enewetak and having post-Miocene sea level elevations significantly lower than modem sea level elevation. Given the present state of knowledge, much work is still needed to accurately decipher the record of post-Miocene sea level change.

  11. Global and Local Sea Level During the Last Interglacial: A Probabilistic Assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Kopp, Robert E; Maloof, Adam C; Oppenheimer, Michael

    2009-01-01

    The Last Interglacial (LIG) stage, with polar temperatures likely 3-5 C warmer than today, serves as a partial analogue for low-end future warming scenarios. Based upon a small set of local sea level indicators, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) inferred that LIG global sea level (GSL) was about 4-6 m higher than today. However, because local sea levels differ from GSL, accurately reconstructing past GSL requires an integrated analysis of globally distributed data sets. Here we compile an extensive database of sea level indicators and apply a novel statistical approach that couples Gaussian process regression of sea level to Markov Chain Monte Carlo modeling of geochronological errors. Our analysis strongly supports the hypothesis that LIG GSL was higher than today, probably peaking at 6-9 m. Our results highlight the sea level hazard associated with even relatively low levels of sustained global warming.

  12. Coping with Higher Sea Levels and Increased Coastal Flooding in New York City. Chapter 13

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gornitz, Vivien; Horton, Radley; Bader, Daniel A.; Orton, Philip; Rosenzweig, Cynthia

    2017-01-01

    The 837 km New York City shoreline is lined by significant economic assets and dense population vulnerable to sea level rise and coastal flooding. After Hurricane Sandy in 2012, New York City developed a comprehensive plan to mitigate future climate risks, drawing upon the scientific expertise of the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC), a special advisory group comprised of university and private-sector experts. This paper highlights current NPCC findings regarding sea level rise and coastal flooding, with some of the City's ongoing and planned responses. Twentieth century sea level rise in New York City (2.8 cm/decade) exceeded the global average (1.7 cm/decade), underscoring the enhanced regional risk to coastal hazards. NPCC (2015) projects future sea level rise at the Battery of 28 - 53 cm by the 2050s and 46 - 99 cm by the 2080s, relative to 2000 - 2004 (mid-range, 25th - 75th percentile). High-end SLR estimates (90th percentile) reach 76 cm by the 2050s, and 1.9 m by 2100. Combining these projections with updated FEMA flood return period curves, assuming static flood dynamics and storm behavior, flood heights for the 100-year storm (excluding waves) attain 3.9-4.5 m (mid-range), relative to the NAVD88 tidal datum, and 4.9 m (high end) by the 2080s, up from 3.4 m in the 2000s. Flood heights with a 1% annual chance of occurrence in the 2000s increase to 2.0 - 5.4% (mid-range) and 12.7% per year (high-end), by the 2080s. Guided by NPCC (2013, 2015) findings, New York City has embarked on a suite of initiatives to strengthen coastal defenses, employing various approaches tailored to specific neighborhood needs. NPCC continues its collaboration with the city to investigate vulnerability to extreme climate events, including heat waves, inland floods and coastal storms. Current research entails higher-resolution neighborhood-level coastal flood mapping, changes in storm characteristics, surge height interactions with sea level rise, and stronger engagement

  13. Relative sea level in the South Alligator River Region, North Australia, during the Holocene

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Woodroffe, C.D.; Thom, B.G.; Chappell, J.; Wallensky, E.; Grindrod, J.; Head, J.

    Mangrove sediments are indicators of former sea level. Radiocarbon dating of fragments of mangrove wood from the sediments of the South Alligator tidal river, van Diemen Gulf, Northern Territory, indicates that sea level rose rapidly during the Postglacial Marine Transgression until about 6800 years B.P., when it was within 5 m of its present level. This is somewhat later than results from northeast and southeast Australia, which show the sea reached its present level before 6000 B.P. Further, we find no evidence for falling sea level in the last 5000 years, which has been reported from eastern and southwestern sites.

  14. Temporal response of hydraulic head, temperature, and chloride concentrations to sea-level changes, Floridan aquifer system, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, J. D.; Vacher, H. L.; Sanford, Ward E.

    2009-06-01

    Three-dimensional density-dependent flow and transport modeling of the Floridan aquifer system, USA shows that current chloride concentrations are not in equilibrium with current sea level and, second, that the geometric configuration of the aquifer has a significant effect on system responses. The modeling shows that hydraulic head equilibrates first, followed by temperatures, and then by chloride concentrations. The model was constructed using a modified version of SUTRA capable of simulating multi-species heat and solute transport, and was compared to pre-development conditions using hydraulic heads, chloride concentrations, and temperatures from 315 observation wells. Three hypothetical, sinusoidal sea-level changes occurring over 100,000 years were used to evaluate how the simulated aquifer responds to sea-level changes. Model results show that hydraulic head responses lag behind sea-level changes only where the Miocene Hawthorn confining unit is thick and represents a significant restriction to flow. Temperatures equilibrate quickly except where the Hawthorn confining unit is thick and the duration of the sea-level event is long (exceeding 30,000 years). Response times for chloride concentrations to equilibrate are shortest near the coastline and where the aquifer is unconfined; in contrast, chloride concentrations do not change significantly over the 100,000-year simulation period where the Hawthorn confining unit is thick.

  15. Created mangrove wetlands store belowground carbon and surface elevation change enables them to adjust to sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krauss, Ken W.; Cormier, Nicole; Osland, Michael J.; Kirwan, Matthew L.; Stagg, Camille L.; Nestlerode, Janet A.; Russell, Marc J.; From, Andrew; Spivak, Amanda C.; Dantin, Darrin D.; Harvey, James E.; Almario, Alejandro E.

    2017-01-01

    Mangrove wetlands provide ecosystem services for millions of people, most prominently by providing storm protection, food and fodder. Mangrove wetlands are also valuable ecosystems for promoting carbon (C) sequestration and storage. However, loss of mangrove wetlands and these ecosystem services are a global concern, prompting the restoration and creation of mangrove wetlands as a potential solution. Here, we investigate soil surface elevation change, and its components, in created mangrove wetlands over a 25 year developmental gradient. All created mangrove wetlands were exceeding current relative sea-level rise rates (2.6 mm yr−1), with surface elevation change of 4.2–11.0 mm yr−1 compared with 1.5–7.2 mm yr−1 for nearby reference mangroves. While mangrove wetlands store C persistently in roots/soils, storage capacity is most valuable if maintained with future sea-level rise. Through empirical modeling, we discovered that properly designed creation projects may not only yield enhanced C storage, but also can facilitate wetland persistence perennially under current rates of sea-level rise and, for most sites, for over a century with projected medium accelerations in sea-level rise (IPCC RCP 6.0). Only the fastest projected accelerations in sea-level rise (IPCC RCP 8.5) led to widespread submergence and potential loss of stored C for created mangrove wetlands before 2100.

  16. Predictions of extreme precipitation and sea-level rise under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Senior, C A; Jones, R G; Lowe, J A; Durman, C F; Hudson, D

    2002-07-15

    Two aspects of global climate change are particularly relevant to river and coastal flooding: changes in extreme precipitation and changes in sea level. In this paper we summarize the relevant findings of the IPCC Third Assessment Report and illustrate some of the common results found by the current generation of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), using the Hadley Centre models. Projections of changes in extreme precipitation, sea-level rise and storm surges affecting the UK will be shown from the Hadley Centre regional models and the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory storm-surge model. A common finding from AOGCMs is that in a warmer climate the intensity of precipitation will increase due to a more intense hydrological cycle. This leads to reduced return periods (i.e. more frequent occurrences) of extreme precipitation in many locations. The Hadley Centre regional model simulates reduced return periods of extreme precipitation in a number of flood-sensitive areas of the UK. In addition, simulated changes in storminess and a rise in average sea level around the UK lead to reduced return periods of extreme high coastal water events. The confidence in all these results is limited by poor spatial resolution in global coupled models and by uncertainties in the physical processes in both global and regional models, and is specific to the climate change scenario used.

  17. Modeling Abrupt Change in Global Sea Level Arising from Ocean - Ice-Sheet Interaction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holland, David M

    2011-09-24

    It is proposed to develop, validate, and apply a coupled ocean ice-sheet model to simulate possible, abrupt future change in global sea level. This research is to be carried out collaboratively between an academic institute and a Department of Energy Laboratory (DOE), namely, the PI and a graduate student at New York University (NYU) and climate model researchers at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The NYU contribution is mainly in the area of incorporating new physical processes into the model, while the LANL efforts are focused on improved numerics and overall model development. NYU and LANL will work together on applying the model to a variety of modeling scenarios of recent past and possible near-future abrupt change to the configuration of the periphery of the major ice sheets. The project's ultimate goal is to provide a robust, accurate prediction of future global sea level change, a feat that no fully-coupled climate model is currently capable of producing. This proposal seeks to advance that ultimate goal by developing, validating, and applying a regional model that can simulate the detailed processes involved in sea-level change due to ocean ice-sheet interaction. Directly modeling ocean ice-sheet processes in a fully-coupled global climate model is not a feasible activity at present given the near-complete absence of development of any such causal mechanism in these models to date.

  18. A global observing system for monitoring and prediction of sea level change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Lee-Lueng

    The rise of global sea level is a direct consequence of climate change. A one-meter rise by the end of the century is estimated to have global economic impacts by trillions of US dollars and displacement of 10% of the world’s population if no adaptation is applied. Before the advent of satellite observations of sea surface height with radar altimetry, it was not possible to make direct determination of the global mean sea level. The sparsely located tide gauges were not able to sample the uneven spatial distribution of sea level change, leading to biased measurement. The 20-year record from satellite altimetry is the first directly measured time series of the global mean sea level. The satellite’s uniform global sampling also reveals the complex geographic pattern of sea level change over the past 20 years, underscoring the uncertainty from sparse tide gauge measurement. The contributions to recent sea level rise have roughly equal partitions among the steric effect from ocean warming, the melting of mountain glaciers, and the melting of polar ice sheets. The measurement of the change of Earth’s gravity field from the GRACE Mission has for the first time provided direct observation of the mass added to the ocean from ice melting. The difference between altimetry and gravity measurements is attributed to the steric sea level change, which has been observed by an in-situ network of float measurement (Argo). The intercomparison of satellite and in-situ observations has provided cross-calibration and mutual validation of the measurement system, demonstrating a calibrated measurement system for global sea level. The ability to diagnose sea level change in terms of its various components represents a key step towards understanding the physical processes. In order to assess the societal impact of sea level rise, one must be able to predict its regional pattern, which involves a host of other factors. The prediction of sea level change thus requires an Earth system

  19. Sedimentary architecture of the Bohai Sea China over the last 1 Ma and implications for sea-level changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Xuefa; Yao, Zhengquan; Liu, Qingsong; Larrasoaña, Juan Cruz; Bai, Yazhi; Liu, Yanguang; Liu, Jihua; Cao, Peng; Li, Xiaoyan; Qiao, Shuqing; Wang, Kunshan; Fang, Xisheng; Xu, Taoyu

    2016-10-01

    Sedimentary architecture dominated by transgression-regression cycles in the shallow Bohai shelf region contains information about global sea-level, climate and local tectonics. However, previous studies of transgression-regression cycles in this region at orbital timescales that extend back to the early Pleistocene are sparse, mainly because of the shortage of well-dated long cores. Although transgression-regression sedimentary cycles in the region have been interpreted in terms of local tectonics, sea-level, and climate change, the detailed structure of marine transgressions and their significance for Quaternary global sea-level variations remains to be examined. In this study, we present an integrated sedimentological, geochemical and paleontological study of a 212.4 m (∼1 Ma) core (BH08) recovered from the Bohai Sea, China, for which an astronomically-based age model is available. Correspondence between marine-terrestrial sedimentary cycles and global sea-level fluctuations suggests that stacking of marine and terrestrial sediments was driven mainly by glacio-eustatic sea-level fluctuations in a context in which tectonic subsidence was largely balanced by sediment supply over the last ∼1 Ma. We report a dominant 100-kyr cycle beginning at ∼650 ka, which reflects the worldwide influence of the mid-Pleistocene transition (MPT) in sea-level records. We find that neritic deposits after the MPT were relatively thicker than before the MPT, which indicates an important control of the MPT on sedimentary architecture through lengthening of the duration of sea-level highstands.

  20. The impact of sea surface currents in wave power potential modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zodiatis, George; Galanis, George; Kallos, George; Nikolaidis, Andreas; Kalogeri, Christina; Liakatas, Aristotelis; Stylianou, Stavros

    2015-11-01

    The impact of sea surface currents to the estimation and modeling of wave energy potential over an area of increased economic interest, the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, is investigated in this work. High-resolution atmospheric, wave, and circulation models, the latter downscaled from the regional Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS) of the Copernicus marine service (former MyOcean regional MFS system), are utilized towards this goal. The modeled data are analyzed by means of a variety of statistical tools measuring the potential changes not only in the main wave characteristics, but also in the general distribution of the wave energy and the wave parameters that mainly affect it, when using sea surface currents as a forcing to the wave models. The obtained results prove that the impact of the sea surface currents is quite significant in wave energy-related modeling, as well as temporally and spatially dependent. These facts are revealing the necessity of the utilization of the sea surface currents characteristics in renewable energy studies in conjunction with their meteo-ocean forecasting counterparts.

  1. Statistical analysis of global surface temperature and sea level using cointegration methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Torben; Johansen, Søren; Thejll, Peter

    2012-01-01

    Global sea levels are rising which is widely understood as a consequence of thermal expansion and melting of glaciers and land-based ice caps. Due to the lack of representation of ice-sheet dynamics in present-day physically-based climate models being unable to simulate observed sea level trends......, semi-empirical models have been applied as an alternative for projecting of future sea levels. There is in this, however, potential pitfalls due to the trending nature of the time series. We apply a statistical method called cointegration analysis to observed global sea level and land-ocean surface air...... temperature, capable of handling such peculiarities. We find a relationship between sea level and temperature and find that temperature causally depends on the sea level, which can be understood as a consequence of the large heat capacity of the ocean. We further find that the warming episode in the 1940s...

  2. Potential for bias in 21st century semiempirical sea level projections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jevrejeva, S.; Moore, J. C.; Grinsted, A.

    2012-01-01

    We examine the limitations of a semiempirical model characterized by a sea level projection of 73 cm with RCP4.5 scenario by 2100. Calibrating the model with data to 1990 and then simulating the period 1993-2009 produces sea level in close agreement with acceleration in sea level rise observed...... and dynamics of Greenland ice sheet made contributions to the sea level rise in the early 20th century and therefore are included within the semiempirical model calibration period and hence are included in semiempirical sea level projections by 2100. Antarctic response is probably absent from semiempirical...... models, which will lead to a underestimate in sea level rise if, as is probable, Antarctica loses mass by 2100....

  3. The coherence of small island sea-level with the wider ocean: a model study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joanne Williams

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Studies comparing tide gauge measurements with sea level from nearby satellite altimetry have shown good agreement for some islands, and poor agreement for others, though no explanation has been offered. Using the 1/12° OCCAM ocean model, we investigate the relationship between sea level at small, open-ocean islands, and offshore sea level. For every such island or seamount in the model, we compare the shallow-water sea level with the steric and bottom pressure variability in a neighboring ring of deep water. We find a latitude-dependent range of frequencies for which off-shore sea level is poorly correlated with island sea level. This poor coherence occurs in a spectral region for which steric signals dominate, but are unable to propagate as baroclinic Rossby waves. This mode of decoupling does not arise because of island topography, as the same decoupling is seen between deep ocean points and surrounding rings.

  4. An inflection in the rate of early mid-Holocene eustatic sea-level rise: A new sea-level curve from Singapore

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bird, M. I.; Fifield, L. K.; Teh, T. S.; Chang, C. H.; Shirlaw, N.; Lambeck, K.

    2007-02-01

    This study presents a sea-level curve from ˜9500 to ˜6500 cal BP for the farfield location of Singapore, on the Sunda Shelf in southeast Asia. The curve is based on more than 50 radiocarbon dates from elevations of +1.43 m to -15.09 m representing sea-level index points in intertidal mangrove and shallow marine sediments deposited by sea-level rise accompanying deglaciation. The results indicate that mean sea level rose rapidly from around -17 m at 9500 cal BP to around -3 m by 8000 cal BP. After this time, the data suggest (but do not unequivocally prove) that the rate of sea-rise slowed for a period of 300-500 years centred on ˜7700 cal BP, shortly after the cessation of meltwater input to the oceans from the northern hemisphere. Renewed sea-level rise amounting to 3-5 m began around 7400 cal BP and was complete by 7000 cal BP. The existence of an inflection in the rate of sea-level rise, with a slow-down centred on ˜7700 cal BP, is broadly consistent with other available sea-level curves over this interval and is supported by evidence of stable shorelines and delta initiation elsewhere at this time, as well as evidence of comparatively rapid retreat of the West Antarctic ice sheet beginning around 7500 cal BP. 'Stepped' sea-level rise occurring shortly after 7500 cal BP and also earlier during deglaciation may have served to focus significant post-glacial episodes of human maritime/coastal dispersal, into comparatively narrow time intervals.

  5. The Holocene palaeogeography and relative sea level for two tidal basins of the German North Sea coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bungenstock, Friederike; Wartenberg, Wolfram; Mauz, Barbara; Freund, Holger; Frechen, Manfred; Weerts, Henk J. T.; Berner, Heinrich

    2014-05-01

    The response of coasts to global sea-level rise is highly variable. Knowledge of driving coastal parameters alongside the regional sea-level history is therefore indispensable when the response to global sea-level rise is to be assessed. Here, we study the Holocene relative sea-level of the south coast of the North Sea which is controlled by a number of very local parameters, as well as by regional glacio-isostatic adjustments. It is therefore crucial to restrict the data acquisition and evaluation to small coastal sections, ideally to single tidal basins, to minimize the sources of uncertainties (Bungenstock & Weerts 2010, 2012). We present data from two tidal basins, Langeoog and Jade Bay. For Langeoog a database derived from 600 cores, 68 km of Boomer seismic data, 33 radiocarbon ages and 8 OSL dates is available. (Bungenstock & Schäfer 2009, Mauz & Bungenstock 2007). For the Jade bay, the database comprises sedimentary markers, pollen and macro remains derived from 68 cores. The sedentary chronology is based on 54 radiocarbon ages and pollen constraints (Wartenberg & Freund 2011, Wartenberg et al. 2013). For both tidal basins the sedimentological record was interpreted in terms of the local paleogeographical development since about 7000 cal BP and its influence on the local relative sea-level curve. While the trend of the relative sea level is similar for both tidal basins, it shows a different altitude. The timing of the main marine transgression within the Langeoog area takes place ~3000 cal. BP whereas the sedimentological record of the Jade Bay shows two prominent transgressions, one for ~5000 cal. BP and one for ~3000 cal. BP. The Langeoog palaeo-environment is continuously characterised by marine influence. Within the Jade Bay two different palaeo-environments could be identified, documenting that from the West to the centre the landscape development in the Jade Bay was drainage driven feeding the associated fen peat with minerogenic water but being

  6. Fate of water pumped from underground and contributions to sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wada, Yoshihide; Lo, Min-Hui; Yeh, Pat J.-F.; Reager, John T.; Famiglietti, James S.; Wu, Ren-Jie; Tseng, Yu-Heng

    2016-08-01

    The contributions from terrestrial water sources to sea-level rise, other than ice caps and glaciers, are highly uncertain and heavily debated. Recent assessments indicate that groundwater depletion (GWD) may become the most important positive terrestrial contribution over the next 50 years, probably equal in magnitude to the current contributions from glaciers and ice caps. However, the existing estimates assume that nearly 100% of groundwater extracted eventually ends up in the oceans. Owing to limited knowledge of the pathways and mechanisms governing the ultimate fate of pumped groundwater, the relative fraction of global GWD that contributes to sea-level rise remains unknown. Here, using a coupled climate-hydrological model simulation, we show that only 80% of GWD ends up in the ocean. An increase in runoff to the ocean accounts for roughly two-thirds, whereas the remainder results from the enhanced net flux of precipitation minus evaporation over the ocean, due to increased atmospheric vapour transport from the land to the ocean. The contribution of GWD to global sea-level rise amounted to 0.02 (+/-0.004) mm yr-1 in 1900 and increased to 0.27 (+/-0.04) mm yr-1 in 2000. This indicates that existing studies have substantially overestimated the contribution of GWD to global sea-level rise by a cumulative amount of at least 10 mm during the twentieth century and early twenty-first century. With other terrestrial water contributions included, we estimate the net terrestrial water contribution during the period 1993-2010 to be +0.12 (+/-0.04) mm yr-1, suggesting that the net terrestrial water contribution reported in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report report is probably overestimated by a factor of three.

  7. Fate of Water Pumped from Underground and Contributions to Sea Level Rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wada, Yoshihide; Lo, Min-Hui; Yeh, Pat J.-F.; Reager, John T.; Famiglietti, James S.; Wu, Ren-Jie; Tseng, Yu-Heng

    2016-01-01

    The contributions from terrestrial water sources to sea-level rise, other than ice caps and glaciers, are highly uncertain and heavily debated1-5. Recent assessments indicate that groundwater depletion (GWD) may become the most important positive terrestrial contribution6-10 over the next 50 years, probably equal in magnitude to the current contributions from glaciers and ice caps6. However, the existing estimates assume that nearly 100% of groundwater extracted eventually ends up in the oceans. Owing to limited knowledge of the pathways and mechanisms governing the ultimate fate of pumped groundwater, the relative fraction of global GWD that contributes to sea-level rise remains unknown. Here, using a coupled climate-hydrological model11,12 simulation, we show that only 80% of GWDends up in the ocean. An increase in runo to the ocean accounts for roughly two-thirds, whereas the remainder results from the enhanced net flux of precipitation minus evaporation over the ocean, due to increased atmospheric vapour transport from the land to the ocean. The contribution of GWD to global sea-level rise amounted to 0.02 (+/- 0.004)mm yr(sup-1) in 1900 and increased to 0.27 (+/- 0.04)mm yr(sup-1) in 2000. This indicates that existing studies have substantially overestimated the contribution of GWD to global sea-level rise by a cumulative amount of at least 10 mm during the twentieth century and early twenty-first century. With other terrestrial water contributions included, we estimate the net terrestrial water contribution during the period 1993-2010 to be +0.12 +/-0.04)mm yr(sup-1), suggesting that the net terrestrialwater contribution reported in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report report is probably overestimated by a factor of three.

  8. Accurately measuring sea level change from space: an ESA Climate Change Initiative for MSL closure budget studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Legeais, Jean-Francois; Cazenave, Anny; Larnicol, Gille

    Sea level is a very sensitive index of climate change and variability. Sea level integrates the ocean warming, mountain glaciers and ice sheet melting. Understanding the sea level variability and changes implies an accurate monitoring of the sea level variable at climate scales, in addition...... in the Arctic Ocean and in coastal areas for which preliminary results suggest that significant improvements can be achieved....

  9. Geomorphological & Geoarchaeological Indicators of the Holocene Sea-Level Changes on Ras El Hekma Area, NW Coast of Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torab, Magdy

    2016-02-01

    Ras El Hekma area is a part of the NW coast of Egypt. It is located on the Egyptian Mediterranean Coast, approximately 220 km West of Alexandria City. It is shaped as a triangle with its headland extending into the Mediterranean sea for about 15 km, and is occupied by sedimentary rocks belonging to the Tertiary and Quaternary Eras. Its western coastline consists of Pleistocene Oolitic limestone ridges with separated steep scarps, while the eastern coastline consists of sandy beaches, coastal spits, coastal bars, tombolos and bays. The objective of this paper is to define some geomorphological and geoarchaelological indicators of The Holocene sea-level changes in the study area, especially the geomorphic landforms such as: marine notches, cliffs, sea caves and benches. This is to add to some archaeological remains that have been discovered by the paper's author under the current sea level. These remains include: submerged ruins of Greek and Roman harbors, wells and fish tanks near the coastline (Leuke Akte, Hermaea, Phoinikous and Zygris), in addition to an ancient Roman harbor used during the World War II in Tell El Zaytun area (Site #6). Evaluations of the discovered archaeological remains help our understanding of the evolution of the sea level during the Holocene. This study is based on observation of the relative sea-level curves drawn of the Holocene, detailed geomorphological and Geoarchaelogical surveying, sampling, dating and mapping as well as satellite image interpretation and GIS techniques.

  10. Adaptation to Sea Level Rise in Coastal Units of the National Park Service (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beavers, R. L.

    2010-12-01

    83 National Park Service (NPS) units contain nearly 12,000 miles of coastal, estuarine and Great Lakes shoreline and their associated resources. Iconic natural features exist along active shorelines in NPS units, including, e.g., Cape Cod, Padre Island, Hawaii Volcanoes, and the Everglades. Iconic cultural resources managed by NPS include the Cape Hatteras Lighthouse, Fort Sumter, the Golden Gate, and heiaus and fish traps along the coast of Hawaii. Impacts anticipated from sea level rise include inundation and flooding of beaches and low lying marshes, shoreline erosion of coastal areas, and saltwater intrusion into the water table. These impacts and other coastal hazards will threaten park beaches, marshes, and other resources and values; alter the viability of coastal roads; and require the NPS to re-evaluate the financial, safety, and environmental implications of maintaining current projects and implementing future projects in ocean and coastal parks in the context of sea level rise. Coastal erosion will increase as sea levels rise. Barrier islands along the coast of Louisiana and North Carolina may have already passed the threshold for maintaining island integrity in any scenario of sea level rise (U.S. Climate Change Science Program Synthesis and Assessment Program Report 4.1). Consequently, sea level rise is expected to hasten the disappearance of historic coastal villages, coastal wetlands, forests, and beaches, and threaten coastal roads, homes, and businesses. While sea level is rising in most coastal parks, some parks are experiencing lower water levels due to isostatic rebound and lower lake levels. NPS funded a Coastal Vulnerability Project to evaluate the physical and geologic factors affecting 25 coastal parks. The USGS Open File Reports for each park are available at http://woodshole.er.usgs.gov/project-pages/. These reports were designed to inform park planning efforts. NPS conducted a Storm Vulnerability Project to provide ocean and coastal

  11. The sea level fingerprint of 21st century ice mass fluxes

    OpenAIRE

    Bamber, J.; Riva, R.

    2010-01-01

    The sea level contribution from glacial sources has been accelerating during the 21st century (Meier et al., 2007; Velicogna, 2009). This contribution is not distributed uniformly across the world's oceans due to both oceanographic and gravitational effects. We compute the sea level signature of 21st century ice mass fluxes due to changes in the gravity field, Earth's rotation and related effects. Mass loss from Greenland results in a relative sea level (RSL) reduction for much of North Weste...

  12. GIS analysis of effects of future Baltic sea level rise on the island of Gotland, Sweden

    OpenAIRE

    Ebert, K.; K. Ekstedt; J. Jarsjö

    2016-01-01

    Future sea level rise as a consequence of global warming will affect the world's coastal regions. Even though the pace of sea level rise is not clear, the consequences will be severe and global. Commonly the effects of future sea level rise are investigated for relatively vulnerable development countries; however, a whole range of varying regions needs to be considered in order to improve the understanding of global consequences. In this paper we investigate consequences of ...

  13. Implications of sediment redistribution on modeled sea-level changes over millennial timescales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrier, Ken

    2016-04-01

    Sea level is a critical link in feedbacks among topography, tectonics, and climate. Over millennial timescales, changes in sea level reshape river networks, regulate organic carbon burial, influence sediment deposition, and set moving boundary conditions for landscape evolution. Sea-level changes influence tectonics by regulating rates and patterns of erosion and deposition, which perturb the surface loads that drive geodynamic processes at depth. These interactions are complex because sea-level changes are influenced by the geomorphic processes that they themselves modify, since sediment redistribution deforms the gravitational and crustal elevation fields that define sea level. A recent advance in understanding the coupling between sea level, tectonics, and topography was the incorporation of sediment redistribution into a gravitationally self-consistent sea-level model, which permits the computation of sea-level responses to erosion and deposition (Dalca et al., 2013, Geophysical Journal International). Here I use this model to quantify changes in sea level resulting from the erosion of some of the most rapidly eroding sites on Earth and the deposition of sediment offshore. These model results show that the sea-level fingerprints of sediment redistribution are strongly variable in space, and that they can represent a significant component of the total sea level change since the last interglacial. This work provides a basis for understanding a fundamental driver of landscape evolution at some of Earth's most geomorphically dynamic sites, and thus aids investigation of the couplings among tectonics, climate, and topography. References Dalca A.V., Ferrier K.L., Mitrovica J.X., Perron J.T., Milne G.A., Creveling J.R., 2013. On postglacial sea level - III. Incorporating sediment redistribution. Geophysical Journal International, doi: 10.1093/gji/ggt089.

  14. Bowie Lecture: The Record of Sea Level Change from Satellite Measurements: What Have We Learned?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nerem, R. S.

    2005-12-01

    Over the last decade, satellite geodetic measurements together with in situ measurements, have revolutionized our understanding of present-day sea level change. This is important because sea level change can be used as one barometer of climate variations and because of the implications sea level change has for coastal populations. With measurements from satellite altimeter missions (TOPEX/Posiedon and Jason), satellite gravity missions (GRACE), and the Global Positioning System (GPS), we are now able to start asking some important questions with regards to global sea level change and its regional variations. What has been the rate of global mean sea level change over the last dozen years? Is this rate different from the historical rate observed by the tide gauges over the last century? What are the principal causes of the observed sea level change, and are they related to anthropogenic climate variations? The record of sea level change from satellite altimetry will be reviewed, its error sources and limitations discussed, and the results placed in context with other estimates of sea level change from tide gauges, in situ measurements, and global climate models. The much shorter, but just as important, record of ocean mass variations from satellite gravity measurements will be similarly reviewed. In addition, GPS measurements of the deformation of the solid Earth due to the melting of continental ice and what they tell us about sea level change will be discussed. A sea level change budget will be presented, both for the altimetric era and the last century, containing estimates of contributions from thermal expansion, ocean mass changes (melting ice, runoff, etc.), and other contributions to sea level change. Finally, the need for continuing the satellite measurements of sea level change will be discussed in the context of future missions and the scientific gain that would result.

  15. Modeling Caspian Sea water level oscillations under different scenarios of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations

    OpenAIRE

    Roshan GholamReza; Moghbel Masumeh; Grab Stefan

    2012-01-01

    Abstract The rapid rise of Caspian Sea water level (about 2.25 meters since 1978) has caused much concern to all five surrounding countries, primarily because flooding has destroyed or damaged buildings and other engineering structures, roads, beaches and farm lands in the coastal zone. Given that climate, and more specifically climate change, is a primary factor influencing oscillations in Caspian Sea water levels, the effect of different climate change scenarios on future Caspian Sea levels...

  16. Tsunami-HySEA model validation for tsunami current predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macías, Jorge; Castro, Manuel J.; González-Vida, José Manuel; Ortega, Sergio

    2016-04-01

    Model ability to compute and predict tsunami flow velocities is of importance in risk assessment and hazard mitigation. Substantial damage can be produced by high velocity flows, particularly in harbors and bays, even when the wave height is small. Besides, an accurate simulation of tsunami flow velocities and accelerations is fundamental for advancing in the study of tsunami sediment transport. These considerations made the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) proposing a benchmark exercise focussed on modeling and simulating tsunami currents. Until recently, few direct measurements of tsunami velocities were available to compare and to validate model results. After Tohoku 2011 many current meters measurement were made, mainly in harbors and channels. In this work we present a part of the contribution made by the EDANYA group from the University of Malaga to the NTHMP workshop organized at Portland (USA), 9-10 of February 2015. We have selected three out of the five proposed benchmark problems. Two of them consist in real observed data from the Tohoku 2011 event, one at Hilo Habour (Hawaii) and the other at Tauranga Bay (New Zealand). The third one consists in laboratory experimental data for the inundation of Seaside City in Oregon. Acknowledgements: This research has been partially supported by the Junta de Andalucía research project TESELA (P11-RNM7069) and the Spanish Government Research project DAIFLUID (MTM2012-38383-C02-01) and Universidad de Málaga, Campus de Excelencia Andalucía TECH. The GPU and multi-GPU computations were performed at the Unit of Numerical Methods (UNM) of the Research Support Central Services (SCAI) of the University of Malaga.

  17. CALYPSO: a new HF RADAR network to monitor sea surface currents in the Malta-Sicily channel (Mediterranean sea)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cosoli, S.; Ciraolo, G.; Drago, A.; Capodici, F.; Maltese, A.; Gauci, A.; Galea, A.; Azzopardi, J.; Buscaino, G.; Raffa, F.; Mazzola, S.; Sinatra, R.

    2016-12-01

    Located in one of the main shipping lanes in the Mediterranean Sea, and in a strategic region for oil extraction platforms, the Malta-Sicily channel is exposed to significant oil spill risks. Shipping and extraction activities constitute a major threat for marine areas of relevant ecological value in the area, and impacts of oil spills on the local ecosystems and the economic activities, including tourism and fisheries, can be dramatic. Damages would be even more devastating for the Maltese archipelago, where marine resources represent important economic assets. Additionally, North Africa coastal areas are also under threat, due to their proximity to the Malta-Sicily Channel. Prevention and mitigation measures, together with rapid-response and decision-making in case of emergency situations, are fundamental steps that help accomplishing the tasks of minimizing risks and reducing impacts to the various compartments. Thanks to state-of-art technology for the monitoring of sea-surface currents in real-time under all sea-state conditions, the CALYPSO network of High-Frequency Radars represents an essential and invaluable tool for the specific purpose. HF radars technology provide a unique tool to track surface currents in near-real time, and as such the dispersion of pollutants can be monitored and forecasted and their origin backtracked, for instance through data assimilation into ocean circulation models or through short-term data-driven statistical forecasts of ocean currents. The network is constituted of four SeaSonde systems that work in the 13.5MHz frequency band. The network is operative since August 2012 and has been extensively validated using a variety of independent platforms and devices, including current meter data and drifting buoys. The latter provided clear evidences of the reliability of the collected data as for tracking the drifting objects. Additionally, data have provided a new insight into the oceanographic characteristics of the region

  18. Tidal current-induced formation——storm-induced change——tidal current-induced recovery——Interpretation of depositional dynamics of formation and evolution of radial sand ridges on the Yellow Sea seafloor

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张长宽; 张东生; 张君伦; 王震

    1999-01-01

    The results of simulated tidal current field, wave field and storm-induced current field are employed to interpret the depositional dynamic mechanism of formation and evolution of the radial sand ridges on the Yellow Sea seafloor. The anticlockwise rotary tidal wave to the south of Shandong Peninsula meets the following progressive tidal wave from the South Yellow Sea, forming a radial current field outside Jianggang. This current field provides a necessary dynamic condition for the formation and existence of the radial sand ridges on the Yellow Sea seafloor. The results of simulated "old current field (holocene)" show that there existed a convergent-divergent tidal zone just outside the palaeo-Yangtze River estuary where a palaeo-underwater accumulation was developed. The calculated results from wave models indicate that the wave impact on the topography, under the condition of high water level and strong winds, is significant. The storm current induced by typhoons landing in the Yangtze River estuary

  19. Compounding effects of sea level rise and fluvial flooding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moftakhari, Hamed R; Salvadori, Gianfausto; AghaKouchak, Amir; Sanders, Brett F; Matthew, Richard A

    2017-09-12

    Sea level rise (SLR), a well-documented and urgent aspect of anthropogenic global warming, threatens population and assets located in low-lying coastal regions all around the world. Common flood hazard assessment practices typically account for one driver at a time (e.g., either fluvial flooding only or ocean flooding only), whereas coastal cities vulnerable to SLR are at risk for flooding from multiple drivers (e.g., extreme coastal high tide, storm surge, and river flow). Here, we propose a bivariate flood hazard assessment approach that accounts for compound flooding from river flow and coastal water level, and we show that a univariate approach may not appropriately characterize the flood hazard if there are compounding effects. Using copulas and bivariate dependence analysis, we also quantify the increases in failure probabilities for 2030 and 2050 caused by SLR under representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5. Additionally, the increase in failure probability is shown to be strongly affected by compounding effects. The proposed failure probability method offers an innovative tool for assessing compounding flood hazards in a warming climate.

  20. Reconstructing sea level from paleo and projected temperatures 200 to 2100 AD

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grinsted, Aslak; Moore, John; Jevrejeva, Svetlana

    2010-01-01

    . The model has good predictive power when calibrated on the pre-1990 period and validated against the high rates of sea level rise from the satellite altimetry. Future sea level is projected from intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) temperature scenarios and past sea level from established multi......We use a physically plausible four parameter linear response equation to relate 2,000 years of global temperatures and sea level. We estimate likelihood distributions of equation parameters using Monte Carlo inversion, which then allows visualization of past and future sea level scenarios......-proxy reconstructions assuming that the established relationship between temperature and sea level holds from 200 to 2100 ad. Over the last 2,000 years minimum sea level (-19 to -26 cm) occurred around 1730 ad, maximum sea level (12–21 cm) around 1150 AD. Sea level 2090–2099 is projected to be 0.9 to 1.3 m for the A1B...

  1. Spatial variations of sea-level rise and impacts: an application of DIVA

    OpenAIRE

    Brown, S; Nicholls, R.J.; Lowe, J A; Hinkel, J.

    2013-01-01

    Due to complexities of creating sea-level rise scenarios, impacts of climate-induced sea-level rise are often produced from a limited number of models assuming a global uniform rise in sea level. A greater number of models, including those with a pattern reflecting regional variations would help to assure reliability and a range of projections, indicating where models agree and disagree. This paper determines how nine new patterned-scaled sea-level rise scenarios (plus the uniform and pattern...

  2. The Sea-Level Fingerprints of Ice-Sheet Collapse During Interglacial Periods (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hay, C.; Mitrovica, J. X.; Gomez, N. A.; Creveling, J. R.; Austermann, J.; Kopp, R. E.

    2013-12-01

    Peak sea-level highstands during previous interglacials provide important insight into the stability of polar ice sheets in a warming world. In most previous analyses of such highstands, site-specific sea-level records are first corrected for the ongoing effects of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). The residual sea level is then interpreted as representing the net eustatic signal associated with any excess melting of the polar ice sheets relative to their present-day volumes. However, it is now well understood that the collapse of polar ice sheets produces a distinct geometry, or fingerprint, of sea-level change. These sea-level fingerprints must be accounted for in order to accurately estimate global eustatic sea level from site-specific (GIA-corrected) records. To investigate this issue, we compute fingerprints associated with the collapse of the Greenland Ice Sheet, West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and marine sectors of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet. We demonstrate that these fingerprints are, in contrast to those computed for modern melt scenarios, relatively insensitive to the detailed geometry of ice-sheet collapse. Moreover, using these fingerprints, we isolate regions that would have experienced greater-than-eustatic sea-level change regardless of the melt scenario. Finally, we use the fingerprints to demonstrate that some previous analyses of sea-level records from past interglacials may have overestimated peak eustatic sea level (and thus the net excess melting of polar ice sheets) by 1-2 m.

  3. ENSO signature in the sea level along the coastline of Indian subcontinent

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Srinivas, K.; DineshKumar, P.K.; Revichandran, C.

    was −0.29 (1332 values), indicating a comparatively stronger negative associationship. The sea level on an average, over large areas responds to the atmospheric pressure as an inverted barometer (i.e., 1 cm decrease in sea level for 1mb increase... barometer response was 1.6 cm/mb. Anomalies of sea level along the coastline of the Indian Subcontinent Time series of the detrended and smoothened anomalies of sea level are presented for stations on the west coast in Fig. 3, and in Fig. 4...

  4. Expected extreme sea levels at Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp up until year 2100

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brydsten, Lars (Umeaa Univ., Umeaa (Sweden)); Engqvist, Anders (Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden)); Naeslund, Jens-Ove; Lindborg, Tobias (Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden))

    2009-01-15

    Literature data on factors that can affect the highest expected shoreline during the operational lifetime of a final repository up until ca 2100 AD have been compiled for Forsmark and Laxemar/Simpevarp. The study takes into consideration eustasy (global sea level), isostasy (isostatic rebound) and their trends, as well as regional (North Sea) and local (Baltic Sea) annual extremes of today's sea levels and those in year 2100. The most uncertain factor of these is the future global sea level change. For this factor, three possible scenarios have been included from the literature, forming an rough uncertainty interval around a case with an 'intermediate' global sea level. To this end, the study thus makes use of information on global sea level change that has been published since the IPCC's (UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) most recent report (2007). The local cumulative impact on the shoreline of the eustatic and isostatic components for both the Forsmark and Laxemar/Simpevarp coastal areas is that the maximum sea level occurs at the end of the investigation period, by year 2100. The interaction of these estimates is discussed in terms of coastal oceanographic aspects and estimated return periods for local extreme sea level-impacting events, including estimated storm surge. Maximum sea levels in year 2100 based on the sea level rise estimates by Rahmstorf are + 254 cm for Forsmark and + 297 cm for Laxemar/Simpevarp, both of these levels with an uncertainty interval of about +- 70 cm. The numbers apply for the worst possible case in regard to future sea level rise, and for occasions of short duration during heavy storms. In this context it is important to note that the data on which these estimates are based are the subject of intense research, and that revisions are therefore to be expected

  5. Responses of estuarine salinity and transport processes to sea level rise in the Zhujiang (Pearl River) Estuary

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHEN Yuxiang; ZUO Juncheng; ZOU Huazhi; ZHANG Min; ZHANG Kairong

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the changes of hydrodynamics in estuaries with respect to magnitude of sea level rise is important to understand the changes of transport process. Based on prediction of sea level rise over the 21st century, the Zhujiang (Pearl River) Estuary was chosen as a prototype to study the responses of the estuary to potential sea level rise. The numerical model results show that the average salt content, saltwater intrusion distance, and stratification will increase as the sea level rises. The changes of these parameters have obvious seasonal variations. The salt content in the Lingdingyang shows more increase in April and October (the transition periods). The saltwater intrusion distance has larger increase during the low-flow periods than during the high-flow periods in the Lingdingyang. The result is just the opposite in Modaomen. The stratification and its increase are larger during the low-flow periods than during the high-flow periods in Lingdingyang. The response results of transport processes to sea level rise demonstrate that: (1) The time of vertical transport has pronounced increase. The increased tidal range and currents would reinforce the vertical mixing, but the increased stratification would weaken the vertical exchange. The impact of stratification changes overwhelms the impact of tidal changes. It would be more difficult for the surface water to reach the bottom. (2) The lengthways estuarine circulation would be strengthened. Both the offshore surface residual current and inshore bottom residual current will be enhanced. The whole meridional resident flow along the transect of the Lingdingyang would be weakened. These phenomena are caused by the decrease of water surface slope (WWS) and the change of static pressure with the increase of water depth under sea level rise.

  6. Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler observations in the southern Caspian Sea: shelf currents and flow field off Freidoonkenar Bay, Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Ghaffari

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available The results of offshore bottom-mounted ADCP measurements and wind records carried out from August to September 2003 in the coastal waters off Freidoonkenar Bay (FB in the south Caspian Sea (CS are examined in order to characterize the shelf motion, the steady current field and to determine the main driving forces of currents on the study area. Owing to closed basin and absence of the astronomical tide, the atmospheric forcing plays an important role in the flow field of the CS. The lasting regular sea breeze system is present almost throughout the year that performs motive force in diurnal and semi-diurnal bands similar to tides in other regions. In general, current field in the continental shelf could be separated into two distinguishable schemes, which in cross-shelf direction is dominated by high frequencies (1 cpd and higher frequencies, and in along-shelf orientation mostly proportional to lower frequencies in synoptic weather bands. Long-period wave currents, whose velocities are much greater than those of direct wind-induced currents, are dominating the current field in the continental shelf off FB. The propagation of the latter could be described in terms of shore-controlled waves that are remotely generated and travel across the shelf in the southern CS. It has also been shown that long term displacements in this area follow the classic cyclonic, circulation pattern in the southern CS.

  7. Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler observations in the southern Caspian Sea: shelf currents and flow field off Feridoonkenar Bay, Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Ghaffari

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The results of offshore bottom-mounted ADCP measurements and wind records carried out from August to September 2003 in the coastal waters off Feridoon-kenar Bay (FB in the south Caspian Sea (CS are examined in order to characterize the shelf motion, the steady current field and to determine the main driving forces of currents on the study area. Owing to closed basin and absence of the astronomical tide, the atmospheric forcing plays an important role in the flow field of the CS. The lasting regular sea breeze system is present almost throughout the year. This system performs the forcing in diurnal and semi-diurnal bands similar to tides in other regions. In general, current field in the continental shelf could be separated into two distinguishable schemes, which in cross-shelf direction is dominated by high frequencies (1 cpd and higher frequencies, and in along-shelf orientation mostly proportional to lower frequencies in synoptic weather bands. Long-period wave currents, whose velocities are much greater than those of direct wind-induced currents, dominates the current field in the continental shelf off FB. The propagation of the latter could be described in terms of shore-controlled waves that are remotely generated and travel across the shelf in the southern CS. It has also been shown that long term displacements in this area follow the classic cyclonic, circulation pattern in the southern CS.

  8. Drugs from the seas - current status and microbiological implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Proksch, P; Edrada, R A; Ebel, R

    2002-07-01

    The oceans are the source of a large group of structurally unique natural products that are mainly accumulated in invertebrates such as sponges, tunicates, bryozoans, and molluscs. Several of these compounds (especially the tunicate metabolite ET-743) show pronounced pharmacological activities and are interesting candidates for new drugs primarily in the area of cancer treatment. Other compounds are currently being developed as an analgesic (ziconotide from the mollusc Conus magus) or to treat inflammation. Numerous natural products from marine invertebrates show striking structural similarities to known metabolites of microbial origin, suggesting that microorganisms (bacteria, microalgae) are at least involved in their biosynthesis or are in fact the true sources of these respective metabolites. This assumption is corroborated by several studies on natural products from sponges that proved these compounds to be localized in symbiotic bacteria or cyanobacteria. Recently, molecular methods have successfully been applied to study the microbial diversity in marine sponges and to gain evidence for an involvement of bacteria in the biosynthesis of the bryostatins in the bryozoan Bugula neritina.

  9. Tidal changes in the Yellow/East China Sea caused by the rapid sea-level rise during the Holocene

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    KatsutoUehara

    2001-01-01

    Two-dimensional numerical simulations of M2 and K1 tides were performed in order to assess the effect of the rapid sea level change occurring during the last 20000 years in the Yellow/East China Sea (YECS). Results were interpreted by utilizing the difference of the dynamical nature inherited in diurnal and semi-diurnal tides. M2 tides at the coastal region south of Korea exceeded 2 m in amplitude when the sea-level was low, and decreased as the water depth become larger. In the Yellow Sea, on the other hand, tidal amplitudes were small at the low sea-level stages and increased along with the sea-level rise. The way of the increase was not monotonic but with fluctuations, which was due to the movement of the standing wave nodes. An additional experiment with closing the Taiwan Strait revealed that changing the sill depth of the strait not only affects the M2 tides around the southeastern Chinese coast, but also modifies the tides around the southwestern coast of Korea. This result recall us the significa

  10. Building Stories about Sea Level Rise through Interactive Visualizations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephens, S. H.; DeLorme, D. E.; Hagen, S. C.

    2013-12-01

    Digital media provide storytellers with dynamic new tools for communicating about scientific issues via interactive narrative visualizations. While traditional storytelling uses plot, characterization, and point of view to engage audiences with underlying themes and messages, interactive visualizations can be described as 'narrative builders' that promote insight through the process of discovery (Dove, G. & Jones, S. 2012, Proc. IHCI 2012). Narrative visualizations are used in online journalism to tell complex stories that allow readers to select aspects of datasets to explore and construct alternative interpretations of information (Segel, E. & Heer, J. 2010, IEEE Trans. Vis. Comp. Graph.16, 1139), thus enabling them to participate in the story-building process. Nevertheless, narrative visualizations also incorporate author-selected narrative elements that help guide and constrain the overall themes and messaging of the visualization (Hullman, J. & Diakopoulos, N. 2011, IEEE Trans. Vis. Comp. Graph. 17, 2231). One specific type of interactive narrative visualization that is used for science communication is the sea level rise (SLR) viewer. SLR viewers generally consist of a base map, upon which projections of sea level rise scenarios can be layered, and various controls for changing the viewpoint and scenario parameters. They are used to communicate the results of scientific modeling and help readers visualize the potential impacts of SLR on the coastal zone. Readers can use SLR viewers to construct personal narratives of the effects of SLR under different scenarios in locations that are important to them, thus extending the potential reach and impact of scientific research. With careful selection of narrative elements that guide reader interpretation, the communicative aspects of these visualizations may be made more effective. This presentation reports the results of a content analysis of a subset of existing SLR viewers selected in order to comprehensively

  11. Sea-level change and projected future flooding along the Egyptian Mediterranean coast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed Shaltout

    2015-10-01

    The results indicate that DT can be used to study coastal and deep-water sea-level changes in the study area. The southern Levantine sub-basin sea level has recently risen by an average of 3.1 cm decade−1 and exhibits significant annual sea-level variation of −17 cm to 8 cm. The sea-level variation is significantly affected by several factors: sea-level variation west of the Gibraltar Strait, steric sea level, and sea-surface temperature. The GFDL simulations best describing the recent sea level over the study area, i.e., GFDL-CM3 and GFDL-ESM2M, are used to calculate the two-model ensemble mean (GFDL-2ENM, which indicates that Egypt's Mediterranean coast will experience substantial sea-level rise (SLR this century. The estimated uncertainty over the study area was 4–22 cm by 2100, with the emission assumptions dominating the three sources of uncertainty sources. Comparing the projected SLRs with digital elevation data indicates that Egypt's Mediterranean coast will only be safe from flooding by 2100 if effective adaptation methods are applied.

  12. Modelling the increased frequency of extreme sea levels in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta due to sea level rise and other effects of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kay, S; Caesar, J; Wolf, J; Bricheno, L; Nicholls, R J; Saiful Islam, A K M; Haque, A; Pardaens, A; Lowe, J A

    2015-07-01

    Coastal flooding due to storm surge and high tides is a serious risk for inhabitants of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta, as much of the land is close to sea level. Climate change could lead to large areas of land being subject to increased flooding, salinization and ultimate abandonment in West Bengal, India, and Bangladesh. IPCC 5th assessment modelling of sea level rise and estimates of subsidence rates from the EU IMPACT2C project suggest that sea level in the GBM delta region may rise by 0.63 to 0.88 m by 2090, with some studies suggesting this could be up to 0.5 m higher if potential substantial melting of the West Antarctic ice sheet is included. These sea level rise scenarios lead to increased frequency of high water coastal events. Any effect of climate change on the frequency and severity of storms can also have an effect on extreme sea levels. A shelf-sea model of the Bay of Bengal has been used to investigate how the combined effect of sea level rise and changes in other environmental conditions under climate change may alter the frequency of extreme sea level events for the period 1971 to 2099. The model was forced using atmospheric and oceanic boundary conditions derived from climate model projections and the future scenario increase in sea level was applied at its ocean boundary. The model results show an increased likelihood of extreme sea level events through the 21st century, with the frequency of events increasing greatly in the second half of the century: water levels that occurred at decadal time intervals under present-day model conditions occurred in most years by the middle of the 21st century and 3-15 times per year by 2100. The heights of the most extreme events tend to increase more in the first half of the century than the second. The modelled scenarios provide a case study of how sea level rise and other effects of climate change may combine to produce a greatly increased threat to life and property in the GBM delta by the end

  13. The sea level budget along the Northwest Atlantic coast: GIA, mass changes and deep sea-shelf interaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frederikse, T.; Riva, R.; Simon, K.; Kleinherenbrink, M.

    2016-12-01

    Sea level along the Atlantic coast of the United States north of Cape Hatteras shows trends and accelerations above the global average. In this study we look at the individual contributors to sea level changes in this region over the period 1958-2014 and compare the sum of contributors with observations from tide gauges and GPS stations. Both observations are analyzed in a self-consistent framework that takes eustatic effects, geoid changes and solid earth deformation, resulting from both Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) and present-day mass redistribution into account. An updated data-driven model is used to constrain the GIA signal in the region, of which large parts are affected by the forebulge collapse, causing subsidence. The GIA signal explains the largest part of the observed sea level and vertical land motion trends, as well as a large fraction of the inter-station trend differences. Present-day mass redistribution caused by ice sheet and glacier melt, dam retention and groundwater depletion account for a smaller fraction of the observed trends. Altimetry and hydrographic observations and model results show that deep steric variability in the Northwest Atlantic results in a bottom pressure signal over the shelf, which explains, after removing regional meteorological effects, the vast majority of the observed decadal coastal variability and is responsible for a substantial upward trend. The sum of the individual processes explain most of the observed decadal sea level variability, as well as the observed linear trends in both sea level and vertical land motion. The trends in present-day ice mass loss and dynamic sea level do not deviate substantially from global-mean values. A significant sea level acceleration is observed, of which about half can be attributed to mass redistribution processes. The other half can be attributed to steric expansion in the Northwest Atlantic, although separating a secular acceleration from internal variability remains a

  14. On the Accuracy of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment Models for Geodetic Observations to Estimate Arctic Ocean Sea-Level Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhenwei Huang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Arctic Ocean sea-level change is an important indicator of climate change. Contemporary geodetic observations, including data from tide gages, satellite altimetry and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE, are sensitive to the effect of the ongoing glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA process. To fully exploit these geodetic observations to study climate related sea-level change, this GIA effect has to be removed. However, significant uncertainty exists with regard to the GIA model, and using different GIA models could lead to different results. In this study we use an ensemble of 14 contemporary GIA models to investigate their differences when they are applied to the above-mentioned geodetic observations to estimate sea-level change in the Arctic Ocean. We find that over the Arctic Ocean a large range of differences exists in GIA models when they are used to remove GIA effect from tide gage and GRACE observations, but with a relatively smaller range for satellite altimetry observations. In addition, we compare the derived sea-level trend from observations after applying different GIA models in the study regions, sea-level trend estimated from long-term tide gage data shows good agreement with altimetry result over the same data span. However the mass component of sea-level change obtained from GRACE data does not agree well with the result derived from steric-corrected altimeter observation due primarily to the large uncertainty of GIA models, errors in the Arctic Ocean altimetry or steric measurements, inadequate data span, or all of the above. We conclude that GIA correction is critical for studying sea-level change over the Arctic Ocean and further improvement in GIA modelling is needed to reduce the current discrepancies among models.

  15. A 6,700 years sea-level record based on French Polynesian coral reefs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallmann, Nadine; Camoin, Gilbert; Eisenhauer, Anton; Vella, Claude; Samankassou, Elias; Botella, Albéric; Milne, Glenn; Fietzke, Jan; Dussouillez, Philippe

    2015-04-01

    Sea-level change during the Mid- to Late Holocene has a similar amplitude to the sea-level rise that is likely to occur before the end of the 21st century providing a unique opportunity to study the coastal response to sea-level change and to reveal an important baseline of natural climate variability prior to the industrial revolution. Mid- to Late Holocene relative sea-level change in French Polynesia was reconstructed using coral reef records from ten islands, which represent ideal settings for accurate sea-level studies because: 1) they can be regarded as tectonically stable during the relevant period (slow subsidence), 2) they are located far from former ice sheets (far-field), 3) they are characterized by a low tidal amplitude, and 4) they cover a wide range of latitudes which produces significantly improved constraints on GIA (Glacial Isostatic Adjustment) model parameters. Absolute U/Th dating of in situ coral colonies and their accurate positioning via GPS RTK (Real Time Kinematic) measurements is crucial for an accurate reconstruction of sea-level change. We focus mainly on the analysis of coral microatolls, which are sensitive low-tide recorders, as their vertical accretion is limited by the mean low water springs level. Growth pattern analysis allows the reconstruction of low-amplitude, high-frequency sea-level changes on centennial to sub-decadal time scales. A sea-level rise of less than 1 m is recorded between 6 and 3-3.5 ka, and is followed by a gradual fall in sea level that started around 2.5 ka and persisted until the past few centuries. The reconstructed sea-level curve therefore extends the Tahiti sea-level curve [Deschamps et al., 2012, Nature, 483, 559-564], and is in good agreement with a geophysical model tuned to fit far-field deglacial records [Bassett et al., 2005, Science, 309, 925-928].

  16. Mean sea-level height variations in the Central Mediterranean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zerbini, Susanna; Bruni, Sara; Errico, Maddalena; Petracca, Fernanda; Raicich, Fabio; Santi, Efisio

    2015-04-01

    The Italian tide gauge network has experienced difficulties during last century. However, historical time series, starting from the end of the ninetieth century, are available in the PSMSL data base (Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level, http://www.psmsl.org/data/). Data from the early 1980s can also be obtained from the data base of ISPRA (Istituto Superiore per la Protezione e la Ricerca Ambientale, http://www.mareografico.it). In 1998, the Italian national tide gauge network (Rete Mareografica Nazionale - RMN) was completely restructured; it consists of 36 homogeneously distributed stations providing measurements sampled every 10 minutes. We have analyzed both the historical and the recent time series of a sub set of stations located in the Tyrrhenian area by using the Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) approach. The EOF analysis allows describing one data set as a linear combination of orthogonal components, or modes, that depend on position only, while the linear combination coefficients are functions of time only. Each mode is associated to a percentage of the total variance of the original data set, which accounts for the relative importance of the corresponding mode of variability. The aim of this work is to identify common modes which could possibly be related to wide area crustal deformation and/or to climatic fluctuations, such as the inverted barometer effect.

  17. Cerebral vasoreactivity in Andeans and headache at sea level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Appenzeller, O; Passino, C; Roach, R; Gamboa, J; Gamboa, A; Bernardi, L; Bonfichi, M; Malcovati, L

    2004-04-15

    Headache is common in Cerro de Pasco (CP), Peru (altitude 4338 m) and was present in all patients with chronic mountain sickness (CMS) in CP reported here. Forty-seven percent of inhabitants report headache. Twenty-four percent of men have migraine with aura, with an average of 65 attacks a year. We assessed vasoreactivity of the cerebral vessels to CO2 by rebreathing and to NO by the administration of isosorbite dinitrate (IDN), a nitric oxide (NO) donor, using transcranial Doppler ultrasound in the middle cerebral artery (MCA) in natives of CP, some of whom suffered from CMS. We repeated the measurements in Lima (altitude 150 m) in the same subjects within 24 h of arrival. Vasodilatation in the middle cerebral artery supply territory in response to CO2 and NO, both physiologic vasodilators, is defective in Andean natives at altitude and in the same subjects at sea level. Incapacitating migraine can occur with impaired cerebral vasoreactivity to physiologic vasodilators. We propose that susceptibility to migraine might depend in part on gene expression with consequent alterations of endothelial function.

  18. River discharge contribution to sea-level rise in the Yangtze River Estuary, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuang, Cuiping; Chen, Wei; Gu, Jie; Su, Tsung-Chow; Song, Hongling; Ma, Yue; Dong, Zhichao

    2017-02-01

    Sea level changes in the Yangtze River Estuary (YRE) as a result of river discharge are investigated based on the monthly averaged river discharge from 1950 to 2011 at the Datong station. Quantification of the sea level contribution is made by model computed results and the sea level rates reported by the China Sea Level Bulletin (CSLB). The coastal modeling tool, MIKE21, is used to establish a depth-averaged hydrodynamic model covering the YRE and Hangzhou Bay. The model is validated with the measured data. Multi-year monthly river discharges are statistically calculated based on the monthly river discharges at Datong station from 1950 to 2011. The four characteristic discharges (frequency of 75%, 50% and 25%, and multi-year monthly) and month-averaged river discharge from 1950 to 2011 are used to study the seasonal and long-term changes of sea level. The computed sea level at the Dajishan and Lvsi stations are used to study the multi-time scale structure of periodic variation in different time scale of river discharge series. The results reveal that (1) the sea level rises as the river discharge increases, and its amplification decreases from upstream to the offshore. (2) The sea level amplification on the south coast is greater than that on the north coast. When river discharge increases by 20,000 m3/s, the sea level will increase by 0.005-0.010 m in most of Hangzhou Bay. (3) The sea level at the Dajishan station, influenced by river discharge, increased 0.178 mm/y from 1980 to 2011. Correspondingly, the sea level rose at a rate of 2.6-3.0 mm/y during the same period. These values were provided by the CSLB. The increase in sea level (1980-2011) at the Dajishan station caused by river discharge is 6.8-8.9% of the total increase in sea level. (4) The 19-20 year dominant nodal cycle of sea level at the Dajishan and Lvsi stations is in accord with 18.6 year nodal cycle of main tidal constituents on Chinese coasts. It implies that the sea-level change period on the

  19. The complex reality of sea-level rise in an atoll nation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donner, S. D.

    2012-12-01

    Sea-level rise famously poses an existential threat to island nations like Kiribati, Tuvalu and the Maldives. Yet as the global mean sea-level rises, the response of any one location at any given time will depend on the natural variability in regional sea-level and other impact of local human activities on coastal processes. As with climate warming, the state of an individual shoreline or the extent of flooding on a given day is not proof of a sea-level trend, nor is a global sea-level trend a good predictor of individual flooding or erosion events. Failure to consider the effect of natural variability and local human activity on coastal processes often leads to misattribution of flooding events and even some long-term shoreline changes to global sea level rise. Moreover, unverified attribution of individual events or changes to specific islets to sea level rise can inflame or invite scepticism of the strong scientific evidence for an accelerating increase in the global sea level due to the impacts of human activity on the climate system. This is particularly important in developing nations like Kiribati, which are depending on international financial support to adapt to rising sea levels. In this presentation, I use gauge data and examples from seven years of field work in Tarawa Atoll, the densely populated capital of Kiribati, to examine the complexity of local sea level and shoreline change in one of the world's most vulnerable countries. First, I discuss how the combination of El Nino-driven variability in sea-level and the astronomical tidal cycle leads to flooding and erosion events which can be mistaken for evidence of sea-level rise. Second, I show that human modification to shorelines has redirected sediment supply, leading, in some cases, to expansion of islets despite rising sea levels. Taken together, the analysis demonstrates the challenge of attributing particular coastal events to global mean sea-level rise and the impact on decision-making. The

  20. The sea-level fingerprints of ice-sheet collapse during interglacial periods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hay, Carling; Mitrovica, Jerry X.; Gomez, Natalya; Creveling, Jessica R.; Austermann, Jacqueline; E. Kopp, Robert

    2014-03-01

    Studies of sea level during previous interglacials provide insight into the stability of polar ice sheets in the face of global climate change. Commonly, these studies correct ancient sea-level highstands for the contaminating effect of isostatic adjustment associated with past ice age cycles, and interpret the residuals as being equivalent to the peak eustatic sea level associated with excess