WorldWideScience

Sample records for current risk projections

  1. Current industrial practice of managing risks in product development project portfolios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Weng, R.; Oehmen, Josef; Ben-Daya, M.

    2013-01-01

    Managing portfolios of development and engineering projects currently presents significant challenges to companies. This is even more the case in the management of portfolio risks, where both industry and academia currently lack a clear conceptual understanding of what portfolio risks are and what...

  2. Current Resource Imagery Projects

    Data.gov (United States)

    Farm Service Agency, Department of Agriculture — Map showing coverage of current Resource imagery projects. High resolution/large scale Resource imagery is typically acquired for the U.S. Forest Service and other...

  3. Projected Impact of Compositional Verification on Current and Future Aviation Safety Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reveley, Mary S.; Withrow, Colleen A.; Leone, Karen M.; Jones, Sharon M.

    2014-01-01

    The projected impact of compositional verification research conducted by the National Aeronautic and Space Administration System-Wide Safety and Assurance Technologies on aviation safety risk was assessed. Software and compositional verification was described. Traditional verification techniques have two major problems: testing at the prototype stage where error discovery can be quite costly and the inability to test for all potential interactions leaving some errors undetected until used by the end user. Increasingly complex and nondeterministic aviation systems are becoming too large for these tools to check and verify. Compositional verification is a "divide and conquer" solution to addressing increasingly larger and more complex systems. A review of compositional verification research being conducted by academia, industry, and Government agencies is provided. Forty-four aviation safety risks in the Biennial NextGen Safety Issues Survey were identified that could be impacted by compositional verification and grouped into five categories: automation design; system complexity; software, flight control, or equipment failure or malfunction; new technology or operations; and verification and validation. One capability, 1 research action, 5 operational improvements, and 13 enablers within the Federal Aviation Administration Joint Planning and Development Office Integrated Work Plan that could be addressed by compositional verification were identified.

  4. Risks of ocean acidification in the California Current food web and fisheries: ecosystem model projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Kristin N; Kaplan, Isaac C; Hodgson, Emma E; Hermann, Albert; Busch, D Shallin; McElhany, Paul; Essington, Timothy E; Harvey, Chris J; Fulton, Elizabeth A

    2017-04-01

    The benefits and ecosystem services that humans derive from the oceans are threatened by numerous global change stressors, one of which is ocean acidification. Here, we describe the effects of ocean acidification on an upwelling system that already experiences inherently low pH conditions, the California Current. We used an end-to-end ecosystem model (Atlantis), forced by downscaled global climate models and informed by a meta-analysis of the pH sensitivities of local taxa, to investigate the direct and indirect effects of future pH on biomass and fisheries revenues. Our model projects a 0.2-unit drop in pH during the summer upwelling season from 2013 to 2063, which results in wide-ranging magnitudes of effects across guilds and functional groups. The most dramatic direct effects of future pH may be expected on epibenthic invertebrates (crabs, shrimps, benthic grazers, benthic detritivores, bivalves), and strong indirect effects expected on some demersal fish, sharks, and epibenthic invertebrates (Dungeness crab) because they consume species known to be sensitive to changing pH. The model's pelagic community, including marine mammals and seabirds, was much less influenced by future pH. Some functional groups were less affected to changing pH in the model than might be expected from experimental studies in the empirical literature due to high population productivity (e.g., copepods, pteropods). Model results suggest strong effects of reduced pH on nearshore state-managed invertebrate fisheries, but modest effects on the groundfish fishery because individual groundfish species exhibited diverse responses to changing pH. Our results provide a set of projections that generally support and build upon previous findings and set the stage for hypotheses to guide future modeling and experimental analysis on the effects of OA on marine ecosystems and fisheries. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Project Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jr., R. F. Miles

    1995-01-01

    Project risk management is primarily concerned with performance, reliability, cost, and schedule. Environmental risk management is primarily concerned with human health and ecological hazards and likelihoods. This paper discusses project risk management and compares it to environmental risk management, both with respect to goals and implementation. The approach of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory to risk management is presented as an example of a project risk management approach that is an extension to NASA NHB 7120.5: Management of Major System Programs and Projects.

  6. Patient safety in external beam radiotherapy, results of the ACCIRAD project: Current status of proactive risk assessment, reactive analysis of events, and reporting and learning systems in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malicki, Julian; Bly, Ritva; Bulot, Mireille; Godet, Jean-Luc; Jahnen, Andreas; Krengli, Marco; Maingon, Philippe; Prieto Martin, Carlos; Przybylska, Kamila; Skrobała, Agnieszka; Valero, Marc; Jarvinen, Hannu

    2017-04-01

    To describe the current status of implementation of European directives for risk management in radiotherapy and to assess variability in risk management in the following areas: 1) in-country regulatory framework; 2) proactive risk assessment; (3) reactive analysis of events; and (4) reporting and learning systems. The original data were collected as part of the ACCIRAD project through two online surveys. Risk assessment criteria are closely associated with quality assurance programs. Only 9/32 responding countries (28%) with national regulations reported clear "requirements" for proactive risk assessment and/or reactive risk analysis, with wide variability in assessment methods. Reporting of adverse error events is mandatory in most (70%) but not all surveyed countries. Most European countries have taken steps to implement European directives designed to reduce the probability and magnitude of accidents in radiotherapy. Variability between countries is substantial in terms of legal frameworks, tools used to conduct proactive risk assessment and reactive analysis of events, and in the reporting and learning systems utilized. These findings underscore the need for greater harmonisation in common terminology, classification and reporting practices across Europe to improve patient safety and to enable more reliable inter-country comparisons. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. General risks for tunnelling projects: An overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siang, Lee Yong; Ghazali, Farid E. Mohamed; Zainun, Noor Yasmin; Ali, Roslinda

    2017-10-01

    Tunnels are indispensable when installing new infrastructure as well as when enhancing the quality of existing urban living due to their unique characteristics and potential applications. Over the past few decades, there has been a significant increase in the building of tunnels, world-wide. Tunnelling projects are complex endeavors, and risk assessment for tunnelling projects is likewise a complex process. Risk events are often interrelated. Occurrence of a technical risk usually carries cost and schedule consequences. Schedule risks typically impact cost escalation and project overhead. One must carefully consider the likelihood of a risk's occurrence and its impact in the context of a specific set of project conditions and circumstances. A project's goals, organization, and environment impacts in the context of a specific set of project conditions and circumstances. Some projects are primarily schedule driven; other projects are primarily cost or quality driven. Whether a specific risk event is perceived fundamentally as a cost risk or a schedule risk is governed by the project-specific context. Many researchers have pointed out the significance of recognition and control of the complexity, and risks of tunnelling projects. Although all general information on a project such as estimated duration, estimated cost, and stakeholders can be obtained, it is still quite difficult to accurately understand, predict and control the overall situation and development trends of the project, leading to the risks of tunnelling projects. This paper reviews all the key risks for tunnelling projects from several case studies that have been carried out by other researchers. These risks have been identified and reviewed in this paper. As a result, the current risk management plan in tunnelling projects can be enhanced by including all these reviewed risks as key information.

  8. Risk management in nuclear projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salles, Claudio J.R.

    2002-01-01

    The risk management will be defined by different aspects: danger or loss possibility, or responsibility for damage. The risk management is one stage of project management. The risk management is a continuous process of planning, identification, quantification, answer and risk control to maximize the success potential of activity. The reduction of risk is part of priority establishment. This work will indicate how introduce this important instrument in the management of nuclear projects. (author)

  9. Risk variables in evaluation of transport projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vařbuchta, Petr; Kovářová, Hana; Hromádka, Vít; Vítková, Eva

    2017-09-01

    Depending on the constantly increasing demands on assessment of investment projects, especially assessment of large-scale projects in transport and important European projects with wide impacts, there is constantly increasing focus on risk management, whether to find mitigations, creating corrective measures or their implementation in assessment, especially in the context of Cost-Benefit analysis. To project assessment is often used implementation of certain risk variables, which can generate negative impacts of project outputs in framework of assess. Especially in case of transportation infrastructure projects is taken much emphasis on the influence of risk variables. However, currently in case of assessment of transportation projects is in Czech Republic used a few risk variables, which occur in the most projects. This leads to certain limitation in framework of impact assessment of risk variables. This papers aims to specify a new risk variables and process of applying them to already executed project assessment. Based on changes generated by new risk variables will be evaluated differences between original and adapted assessment.

  10. Default risk in project finance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klompjan, R.; Wouters, Marc

    2002-01-01

    Understanding default risk in project finance is relevant to investors. This article investigates which factors are most strongly associated with the occurrence of project finance default, using data from 210 projects, of which 37 were in default. The authors found that the use of proven technology,

  11. Risk Management and Uncertainty in Infrastructure Projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harty, Chris; Neerup Themsen, Tim; Tryggestad, Kjell

    2014-01-01

    The assumption that large complex projects should be managed in order to reduce uncertainty and increase predictability is not new. What is relatively new, however, is that uncertainty reduction can and should be obtained through formal risk management approaches. We question both assumptions...... by addressing a more fundamental question about the role of knowledge in current risk management practices. Inquiries into the predominant approaches to risk management in large infrastructure and construction projects reveal their assumptions about knowledge and we discuss the ramifications these have...... for project and construction management. Our argument and claim is that predominant risk management approaches tends to reinforce conventional ideas of project control whilst undermining other notions of value and relevance of built assets and project management process. These approaches fail to consider...

  12. RISK MANAGEMENT USING PROJECT RECON

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-11-28

    centralized database . • Project Recon (formerly Risk Recon) is designed to be used by all Program Management Offices, Integrated Project Teams and any...Create growth plans to proactively capture benefits • Customize reports to group opportunities by programmatic, technical, business, contracting, and

  13. Development of funding project risk management tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-11-01

    Funding project risk management is a process for identifying, assessing, and prioritizing project funding risks. To plan to : minimize or eliminate the impact of negative events, one must identify what projects have higher risk to respond to potentia...

  14. Managing project risks and uncertainties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mike Mentis

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This article considers threats to a project slipping on budget, schedule and fit-for-purpose. Threat is used here as the collective for risks (quantifiable bad things that can happen and uncertainties (poorly or not quantifiable bad possible events. Based on experience with projects in developing countries this review considers that (a project slippage is due to uncertainties rather than risks, (b while eventuation of some bad things is beyond control, managed execution and oversight are still the primary means to keeping within budget, on time and fit-for-purpose, (c improving project delivery is less about bigger and more complex and more about coordinated focus, effectiveness and developing thought-out heuristics, and (d projects take longer and cost more partly because threat identification is inaccurate, the scope of identified threats is too narrow, and the threat assessment product is not integrated into overall project decision-making and execution. Almost by definition, what is poorly known is likely to cause problems. Yet it is not just the unquantifiability and intangibility of uncertainties causing project slippage, but that they are insufficiently taken into account in project planning and execution that cause budget and time overruns. Improving project performance requires purpose-driven and managed deployment of scarce seasoned professionals. This can be aided with independent oversight by deeply experienced panelists who contribute technical insights and can potentially show that diligence is seen to be done.

  15. Risk Management of NASA Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarper, Hueseyin

    1997-01-01

    Various NASA Langley Research Center and other center projects were attempted for analysis to obtain historical data comparing pre-phase A study and the final outcome for each project. This attempt, however, was abandoned once it became clear that very little documentation was available. Next, extensive literature search was conducted on the role of risk and reliability concepts in project management. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) techniques are being used with increasing regularity both in and outside of NASA. The value and the usage of PRA techniques were reviewed for large projects. It was found that both civilian and military branches of the space industry have traditionally refrained from using PRA, which was developed and expanded by nuclear industry. Although much has changed with the end of the cold war and the Challenger disaster, it was found that ingrained anti-PRA culture is hard to stop. Examples of skepticism against the use of risk management and assessment techniques were found both in the literature and in conversations with some technical staff. Program and project managers need to be convinced that the applicability and use of risk management and risk assessment techniques is much broader than just in the traditional safety-related areas of application. The time has come to begin to uniformly apply these techniques. The whole idea of risk-based system can maximize the 'return on investment' that the public demands. Also, it would be very useful if all project documents of NASA Langley Research Center, pre-phase A through final report, are carefully stored in a central repository preferably in electronic format.

  16. Current Chemical Risk Management Activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA's existing chemicals programs address pollution prevention, risk assessment, hazard and exposure assessment and/or characterization, and risk management for chemicals substances in commercial use.

  17. Current status of the AUSTRON project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rauch, H.; Regler, M.; Lechner, R.E.; Weber, H.

    2001-01-01

    The current status of the AUSTRON spallation source project is described with reference to the need for neutrons in Europe and - due to a certain West-East imbalance of large research facilities - especially in Central Europe. A short overview about technical aspects of proton accelerator, rapid cycling synchrotron, storage ring, target and instrumentation is presented. (author)

  18. Sovereign Risk and Currently Returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Della Corte, Pasquale; Sarno, Lucio; Schmeling, Maik

    We empirically investigate the relation between sovereign risk and exchange rates for a broad set of currencies. An increase in the credit default swap (CDS) spread of a country is accompanied by a significant depreciation of the exchange rate. More generally, CDS spread changes have substantial...... explanatory power for currency returns which is largely driven by shocks to global credit risk. Consistent with the notion that sovereign risk is priced, we find that a country's exposure to global credit risk forecasts excess returns to trading exchange rates as well as to trading on the volatility, skewness...

  19. Integrated project risk management of nuclear power projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Xiaohui; Xu Yuanhui

    2001-01-01

    The concept and the features of risks in nuclear power projects are introduced, and in terms of nuclear power projects' own features, the Nuclear Power Project Integrated Risk Management Model is presented. The identification, estimation, evaluation, response plan development, control of risks and the theoretical basis of risk management are discussed. The model has feedback and control functions in order to control and manage the risks dynamically

  20. Process-based project proposal risk management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alok Kumar

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available We all are aware of the organizational omnipresence. Projects within the organizations are ubiquitous too. Projects achieve their goals successfully if they are planned, scheduled, controlled and implemented well. The project lifecycle of initiating, planning, scheduling, controlling and implementing are very well-planned by project managers and the organizations. Successful projects have well-developed risk management plans to deal with situations impacting projects. Like any other organisation, a university does try to access funds for different purposes too. For such organisations, running a project is not the issue, rather getting a project proposal approved to fund a project is the key. Project proposal processing is done by the nodal office in every organisation. Usually, these nodal offices help in administration and submission of a project proposal for accessing funds. Seldom are these nodal project offices within the organizations facilitate a project proposal approval by proactively reaching out to the project managers. And as project managers prepare project proposals, little or no attention is made to prepare a project proposal risk plan so as to maximise project acquisition. Risk plans are submitted while preparing proposals but these risk plans cater to a requirement to address actual projects upon approval. Hence, a risk management plan for project proposal is either missing or very little effort is made to treat the risks inherent in project acquisition. This paper is an integral attempt to highlight the importance of risk treatment for project proposal stage as an extremely important step to preparing the risk management plan made for projects corresponding to their lifecycle phases. Several tools and techniques have been proposed in the paper to help and guide either the project owner (proposer or the main organisational unit responsible for project management. Development of tools and techniques to further enhance project

  1. Risk management in product innovation projects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Halman, J.I.M.; Keizer, J.A.

    1993-01-01

    In product innovation projects risk management has become increasingly important. Technological and commercial developments ask for effective and efficient product innovation. Systematic diagnosing and management of risks can help to make product innovation projects successful. In this paper a

  2. Streamlining project delivery through risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-08-01

    Project delivery is a significant area of concern and is subject to several risks throughout Plan Development : Process (PDP). These risks are attributed to major areas of project development, such as environmental : analysis, right-of-way (ROW) acqu...

  3. Systems approach to project risk management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kindinger, J. P. (John P.)

    2002-01-01

    This paper describes the need for better performance in the planning and execution of projects and examines the capabilities of two different project risk analysis methods for improving project performance. A quantitative approach based on concepts and tools adopted from the disciplines of systems analysis, probabilistic risk analysis, and other fields is advocated for managing risk in large and complex research & development projects. This paper also provides an overview of how this system analysis approach for project risk management is being used at Los Alamos National Laboratory along with examples of quantitative risk analysis results and their application to improve project performance.

  4. Risks management in project planning

    OpenAIRE

    Stankevičiūtė, Roberta

    2017-01-01

    Project management consists of two very important aspects – managing the right project and managing the project right. To know that you are managing the right project you need to ensure that your project is based on an actual requirement and that your project goal is relevant and beneficial. And professional project planning assists in managing project the right way. The project planning process is very time consuming and is one of the most important parts of the project management process. T...

  5. Current status of the IREN project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Furman, W.I.

    1997-01-01

    A current status and a corrected time-schedule of the project of the new Intense Resonance Neutron pulsed source (IREN) realized in JINR (Dubna) for experiments dealing with fundamental and applied nuclear physics studies are discussed. This source is the upgraded variant of the existing IBR-30 pulsed booster. It consists of the 200 MeV electron linac and supplying by an electron beam the photo-neutron converter placed in the center of the very fast multiplying subcritical core. The existing buildings and beam infrastructure are planned to adopt for the new IREN source. The aim of the project is to improve essentially an energy resolution of the time-of-flight spectrometer and to increase twice (up to 10 15 n/sec) an integral neutron yield. An implementation of the IREN project has started in June 1994 with the planned end in December 1997. But due to mainly insufficient financing the approved time-schedule is shifted. Now most optimistic time of start-up of the neutron source is the end of 1999

  6. Risk-informed ranking of engineering projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jyrkama, M.; Pandey, M.

    2011-01-01

    Refurbishment planning requires prudent investment decisions with respect to the various systems and components at the station. These decisions are influenced by many factors, including engineering, safety, regulatory, economic, and political constraints. From an engineering perspective, the concept of cost-benefit analysis is a common way to allocate capital among various projects. Naturally, the 'best' or optimal project should have the lowest cost and the highest benefit. In the context of risk-informed decision making (RIDM), a process that has been widely embraced by the global nuclear community, the costs and benefits must further be 'weighted' by probabilities to estimate the underlying risk associated with the various planning alternatives. The main purpose of this study is to illustrate how risk and reliability information can be integrated into the refurbishment planning process to facilitate more objective and transparent investment decisions. The methodology is based on the concept of generation risk assessment (GRA) which provides a systematic approach for balancing investment costs with the reduction in overall financial risk. In addition to reliability predictions, the model provides estimates for the level of risk reduction associated with each system/project and also the break-even point for investment. This information is vital for project ranking, and helps to address the key question of whether capital investment should be made in the most risk critical systems, or in systems that reduce the overall risk the most. The application of the proposed methodology requires only basic information regarding the current reliability of each engineering system, which should be readily available from plant records and routine condition assessments. Because the methodology can be readily implemented in a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet, all plausible (e.g., bounding) planning scenarios, with or without investment, can also be generated quickly and easily, while

  7. Risk assessment and management in IOR projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goodyear, S.G.; Gregory, A.T.

    1994-01-01

    The application of IOR techniques is one of the investment opportunities open to Exploration and Production companies. A project will only go forward if the perceived balance between the rewards and the risks is acceptable. IOR projects may be ruled out because they are considered to involve significantly higher risks than conventional developments. Therefore, some means of evaluating the actual level of risk may be required if the full economic benefits from IOR techniques are to be realized. Risk assessment is a key element in safety cases, where a well-established methodology for quantifying risk exists. This paper discusses the extension of these methods to IOR project risk assessment. Combining reservoir and IOR technique uncertainties with their impact on project performance allows project risk to be better quantified. The results of the risk assessment are presented in terms of a risk-reward diagram that plots the probability surface for possible project outcomes as a function of NPV (reward) and exposure (risk)

  8. An Assessment of risk response strategies practiced in software projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vanita Bhoola

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Risk management and success in projects are highly intertwined – better approaches to project risk management tend to increase chances of project success in terms of achieving scope & quality, schedule and cost targets. The process of responding to risk factors during a project’s life cycle is a crucial aspect of risk management referred to as risk response strategies, in this paper. The current research explores the status of risk response strategies applied in the software development projects in India. India provides a young IT-savvy English-speaking population, which is also cost effective. Other than the workforce, the environment for implementation of software projects in India is different from the matured economies. Risk management process is a commonly discussed theme, though its implementation in practice has a huge scope for improvement in India. The paper talks about four fundamental treatments to risk response – Avoidance, Transference, Mitigation and Acceptance (ATMA. From a primary data of 302 project managers, the paper attempts to address the risk response factors that lead to successful achievement of project scope & quality, schedule and cost targets, by using a series of regressions followed with Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equations (SURE modelling. Mitigation emerged as the most significant risk response strategy to achieve project targets. Acceptance, transference, and avoidance of risk were mostly manifested in the forms of transparency in communication across stakeholders, careful study of the nature of risks and close coordination between project team, customers/end-users and top management.

  9. RISK MANAGEMENT APPROACHES AND PRACTICES IN IT PROJECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BRANDAS Claudiu

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Risk is identified in project management literature as an important factor influencing IT projects success, and it is relevant for both academic and practitionersn#8217; communities. The paper presents the past and current approaches to risk management in IT projects. The objective of this paper is to compare the different approaches and relate them to existing practices. Project management literature and practice have brought different approaches to risk management, and as a result, many projects ended in failure. We present how risk management is considered in the literature, and we compare the main two approaches: the evaluation approach and the management approach. The contingency approach does not consider risk management to be a specific process as it is an embedded process in the other project management processes. Then, we present the main practices in risk management. The methodology applied is based on documentary study review and analysis of the concepts used by the literature. We analyzed the literature published between 1978 and 2011 from the main journals for IT project management and found out that the essence of project management is risk management. The risk management practices have a considerable influence on stakeholdersn#8217; perception of project success. But, regardless of the chosen approach, a standard method for identifying, assessing, and responding to risks should be included in any project as this influences the outcome of the project.

  10. Current status of the PBMR licensing project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mysen, A.; Clapisson, G.A.; Metcalf, P.E.

    2000-01-01

    The CNS is currently reviewing the PBMR conceptual design from a licensibility point of view. The PBMR concept is based on a High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactor - pebble bed reactor type. It is anticipated that the PBMR design will rely on inherent safety characteristics to contain fission products within fuel over the full range of design basis events. This feature combined with the high temperature integrity of the fuel and structural graphite, allows the safe use of a high coolant temperature, which allows consideration of the future development of this reactor for non-electrical applications of nuclear heat for industrial use. The CNS licensing approach requires that the licensing and design basis of the plant should respect prevailing international norms and practices and that a quantitative risk assessment should demonstrate compliance with the CNS fundamental safety standards. The first stage of the licensing process is now ongoing; this is a pre-application phase, which will result in a statement on licensibility being issued. Identification of the specific documentation requirements and information needed is required across every step of the licensing process. Top level regulatory requirements have been established for the PBMR. They include the CNS fundamental safety standard and basic licensing criteria, which describes requirements on licensees of nuclear installations regarding risk assessment and compliance with the safety criteria and define classification of licensing basis events. (author)

  11. Sound transit climate risk reduction project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-01

    The Climate Risk Reduction Project assessed how climate change may affect Sound Transit commuter rail, light rail, and express bus : services. The project identified potential climate change impacts on agency operations, assets, and long-term plannin...

  12. Managing risks in the project pipeline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-01

    This research focuses on how to manage the risks of project costs and revenue uncertainties over the long-term, and identifies significant : process improvements to ensure projects are delivered on time and as intended, thus maximizing the miles pave...

  13. Current status of JMTR refurbishment project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaminaga, Masanori; Niimi, Motoji; Hori, Naohiko; Takahashi, Kunihiro; Kanno, Masaru; Nakagawa, Tetsuya; Nagao, Yoshiharu; Ishihara, Masahiro; Kawamura, Hiroshi

    2010-02-01

    The JMTR is a light water moderated and cooled, beryllium reflected tank- type reactor using LUE silicide plate-type fuels. Its thermal power is 50 MW, maximum thermal and fast neutron flux is 4x10 18 m -2 s -1 . First criticality was achieved in March 1968, and its operation was stopped from August, 2006 for the refurbishment. The refurbishment is scheduled from the beginning of FY2007 to the end of FY2010. The renewed and upgraded JMTR will be re-started from FY2011. An investigation on aged components (aged-investigation) was carried out for concrete structures of the JMTR reactor building, exhaust stack, etc., and for tanks in the primary cooling system, heat exchangers, pipes in the secondary cooling system, cooling tower, emergency generators and so on, in order to identify their integrity. The aged-investigation was carried out at the beginning of FY2007. As a result, some components were decided to replace from viewpoints of future maintenance and improvement of reliability, and some components or structures were decided to repair. A visual inspection of inner side of the pressure vessel was carried out using an underwater camera in FY2008, and no serious damage was observed. Up to now, refurbishment works are in progress according to the planned schedule. In FY2009, motors of primary cooling pumps, secondary cooling pumps, motors of drain pumps, pump in the primary water transfer line to the water purification system, beryllium reflector frame, low-voltage motor control centers are to be replaced. A nuclear instrumentation system, process control system, safety protection system and so on are to be replaced in FY2010. In this paper, current status of JMTR refurbishment project is presented. (author)

  14. Baltic NPP Project specifics and current status

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-01-01

    Project overview: 2 x 1194 MW Units (AES-2006 series); Location in Kaliningrad region of the; Russian Federation; Operation dates: Unit 1 – Oct 2016; Unit 2 – Apr 2018; Site preparatory works ongoing. This is first NPP project in the Russian Federation providing opportunity for participation of foreign investors. Foreign investors may acquire up to 49% share. Cross-border transmission lines developed under separate project with participation of foreign investors. Conclusion: At the selected set of assumptions, the project is financially feasible in all scenarios

  15. Risk Assessment for Current and Projected Uses of Source Material Under a U.S. NRC General License and Exemption Request

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, Michael A.; Napier, Bruce A.; Strom, Daniel J.; Short, Steven M.; Beatty, Cassandra V.; Stoker, Natasha F.; Newman, Teridee

    2006-01-01

    Source material is used under specific license, general license, and various exemptions from licensing requirements in 10 CFR Part 40. Because the Atomic Energy Act of 1946 focused on source material primarily in terms of its significance to the production of special nuclear material, the initial regulation of source material did not, apparently, give much emphasis to public health and safety. This emphasis on the production of special nuclear material continued in later modifications to the regulations. Because the last major update of these regulations was over 40 years ago (1961), the NRC is concerned that the current regulations for source materials may not be consistent with current health and safety regulations. Current industrial trends indicate a general decline in the use of thorium and uranium. Thorium was traditionally used in ceramics for refractory purposes but now is primarily used in scientific research, in a few electrical applications, as a chemical catalyst, and in optical lenses. Uranium, once popular in pigments and glazes, is now almost entirely limited to military applications that require special licensure and in scientific research. Due to high-disposal costs, increasingly stringent regulations, and public concerns related to the natural radioactivity of source material, industry is rapidly developing substitutes and alternate processes that do not involve the use of uranium and thorium. For these reasons, the downward trend in the use of source material is expected to continue. Researchers at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) identified how source materials meeting the exemption and general license requirements of 10 CFR 40.13(a), 40.13(b), and 40.22 are currently being used in industry and by the public. Based on the results of an extensive literature and internet search, few ?truly? new uses of source material were discovered that were not already considered in or represented by previous NRC analyses. Exceptions were (1) the

  16. Understanding Pre-Quantitative Risk in Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Lynne P.

    2011-01-01

    Standard approaches to risk management in projects depend on the ability of teams to identify risks and quantify the probabilities and consequences of these risks (e.g., the 5 x 5 risk matrix). However, long before quantification does - or even can - occur, and long after, teams make decisions based on their pre-quantitative understanding of risk. These decisions can have long-lasting impacts on the project. While significant research has looked at the process of how to quantify risk, our understanding of how teams conceive of and manage pre-quantitative risk is lacking. This paper introduces the concept of pre-quantitative risk and discusses the implications of addressing pre-quantitative risk in projects.

  17. Annual effective dose due to residential radon progeny in Sweden: Evaluations based on current risk projections models and on risk estimates from a nation-wide Swedish epidemiological study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Doi, M [National Inst. of Radiological Sciences, Chiba (Japan); Lagarde, F [Karolinska Inst., Stockholm (Sweden). Inst. of Environmental Medicine; Falk, R; Swedjemark, G A [Swedish Radiation Protection Inst., Stockholm (Sweden)

    1996-12-01

    Effective dose per unit radon progeny exposure to Swedish population in 1992 is estimated by the risk projection model based on the Swedish epidemiological study of radon and lung cancer. The resulting values range from 1.29 - 3.00 mSv/WLM and 2.58 - 5.99 mSv/WLM, respectively. Assuming a radon concentration of 100 Bq/m{sup 3}, an equilibrium factor of 0.4 and an occupancy factor of 0.6 in Swedish houses, the annual effective dose for the Swedish population is estimated to be 0.43 - 1.98 mSv/year, which should be compared to the value of 1.9 mSv/year, according to the UNSCEAR 1993 report. 27 refs, tabs, figs.

  18. Annual effective dose due to residential radon progeny in Sweden: Evaluations based on current risk projections models and on risk estimates from a nation-wide Swedish epidemiological study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doi, M.; Lagarde, F.

    1996-12-01

    Effective dose per unit radon progeny exposure to Swedish population in 1992 is estimated by the risk projection model based on the Swedish epidemiological study of radon and lung cancer. The resulting values range from 1.29 - 3.00 mSv/WLM and 2.58 - 5.99 mSv/WLM, respectively. Assuming a radon concentration of 100 Bq/m 3 , an equilibrium factor of 0.4 and an occupancy factor of 0.6 in Swedish houses, the annual effective dose for the Swedish population is estimated to be 0.43 - 1.98 mSv/year, which should be compared to the value of 1.9 mSv/year, according to the UNSCEAR 1993 report. 27 refs, tabs, figs

  19. Aquantis Ocean Current Turbine Development Project Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fleming, Alex J.

    2014-08-23

    The Aquantis® Current Plane (“C-Plane”) technology developed by Dehlsen Associates, LLC (DA) and Aquantis, Inc. is an ocean current turbine designed to extract kinetic energy from ocean currents. The technology is capable of achieving competitively priced base-load, continuous, and reliable power generation from a source of renewable energy not before possible in this scale or form.

  20. Diagnosing risks in product-innovation projects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Halman, Johannes I.M.; Keizer, J.A.

    A new method of diagnosing risks in product-innovation projects is introduced in the paper. The method is an improvement on existing risk methods used on product-innovation projects, such as potential problem analysis and failure mode and effects analysis. Technological, organizational and

  1. Diagnosing risks in product-innovation projects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Halman, J.I.M.; Keizer, J.A.

    1994-01-01

    A new method of diagnosing risks in product-innovation projects is introduced in the paper. The method is an improvement on existing risk methods used on product-innovation projects, such as potential problem analysis and failure mode and effects analysis. Technological, organizational and

  2. Modeling Research Project Risks with Fuzzy Maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodea, Constanta Nicoleta; Dascalu, Mariana Iuliana

    2009-01-01

    The authors propose a risks evaluation model for research projects. The model is based on fuzzy inference. The knowledge base for fuzzy process is built with a causal and cognitive map of risks. The map was especially developed for research projects, taken into account their typical lifecycle. The model was applied to an e-testing research…

  3. Security Risk Assessment in Software Development Projects

    OpenAIRE

    Svendsen, Heidi

    2017-01-01

    Software security is increasing in importance, linearly with vulnerabilities caused by software flaws. It is not possible to spend all the project s resources on software security. To spend the resources given to security in an effective way, one should know what is most important to protect. By performing a risk analysis the project know which vulnerabilities they face. A risk analysis will prioritise the vulnerabilities, and when the vulnerabilities are prioritised the project know where th...

  4. Risk management methodology for RBMN project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borssatto, Maria F.B.; Tello, Cledola C.O.; Uemura, George

    2013-01-01

    RBMN Project has been developed to design, construct and commission a national repository to dispose the low- and intermediate-level radioactive wastes from the operation of nuclear power plants and other industries that use radioactive sources and materials. Risk is a characteristic of all projects. The risks arise from uncertainties due to assumptions associated with the project and the environment in which it is executed. Risk management is the method by which these uncertainties are systematically monitored to ensure that the objectives of the project will be achieved. Considering the peculiarities of the Project, that is, comprehensive scope, multidisciplinary team, apparently polemic due to the unknowing of the subject by the stake holders, especially the community, it is being developed a specific methodology for risk management of this Project. This methodology will be critical for future generations who will be responsible for the final stages of the repository. It will provide greater guarantee to the processes already implemented and will maintain a specific list of risks and solutions for this Project, ensuring safety and security of the repository throughout its life cycle that is the planned to last at least three hundred years. This paper presents the tools and processes already defined, management actions aimed at developing a culture of proactive risk in order to minimize threats to this Project and promote actions that bring opportunities to its success. The methodology is based on solid research on the subject, considering methodologies already established and globally recognized as best practices for project management. (author)

  5. SNS project-wide beam current monitors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kesselman, M.; Witkover, R.; Doolittle, L.; Power, J.

    2000-01-01

    A consortium of national laboratories is constructing the Spallation Neutron Source [1] (SNS) to be installed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. There are signal similarities that exist in the beam diagnostic instrumentation that could permit common designs. This paper will focus on the beam current monitoring requirements, and the methods under consideration to measure beam current in various locations throughout the SNS facility

  6. COORDINATES OF A RISK MANAGEMENT PROJECT

    OpenAIRE

    ALEXANDRU OLTEANU; MĂDĂLINA ANTOANETA RĂDOI

    2013-01-01

    High risk – high benefit: a well-known correlation both in the economic field and in the day-to-day life. Another correlation, on which this article is based: large project – numerous participants – increased risks and other malfunctions. The risk management concept is challenged by those projects and is forced to find the most adequate “customized” ways for each project at its turn. In this respect, the assessment of management has followed the trend of the last three decades, marked by movi...

  7. Subjective risk assessment for planning conservation projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Game, Edward T; Fitzsimons, James A; Lipsett-Moore, Geoff; McDonald-Madden, Eve

    2013-01-01

    Conservation projects occur under many types of uncertainty. Where this uncertainty can affect achievement of a project’s objectives, there is risk. Understanding risks to project success should influence a range of strategic and tactical decisions in conservation, and yet, formal risk assessment rarely features in the guidance or practice of conservation planning. We describe how subjective risk analysis tools can be framed to facilitate the rapid identification and assessment of risks to conservation projects, and how this information should influence conservation planning. Our approach is illustrated with an assessment of risks to conservation success as part of a conservation plan for the work of The Nature Conservancy in northern Australia. Risks can be both internal and external to a project, and occur across environmental, social, economic and political systems. Based on the relative importance of a risk and the level of certainty in its assessment we propose a series of appropriate, project level responses including research, monitoring, and active amelioration. Explicit identification, prioritization, and where possible, management of risks are important elements of using conservation resources in an informed and accountable manner. (letter)

  8. Risk Management in Construction Project: Taking Fairness into Account

    Science.gov (United States)

    Górecki, Jarosław; Bizon-Górecka, Jadwiga

    2017-10-01

    Risk management requires a comprehensive review of possible hazards, their possible outcomes as well as some recommendations about minimizing the risk. The study emphasises that the project risk management refers to an analysis of the risk factors and a creation of the strategy minimising negative effects of the risk. It was pointed out that a construction project is this kind of projects that can be defined as a unique process of high complexity (design documentation, various stages of creating the building), which has clearly defined time frames and a given financial limit. It is executed as a team work, by qualified or highly qualified specialists of different matters, for example masonry, precast, etc. Additionally, it requires a use of modern equipment and an adequate preparation of the investment. Therefore, the risk management focuses on the problems allowing for troubleshooting. A basis of the risk management is to recognise the fundamentals, which are crucial for the construction project management, i.e. an object perspective, including technological, supporting and management processes as well as an entity perspective - project stakeholders. Construction projects require also an acquaintance with the specificity of the branch. The article refers to the risk management in construction project and, in particular, a phenomenon of participants’ fairness in such projects. The problem of fairness of the entities involved in a project should be understood as a fair play, according to the arrangements agreed in a contract and compatible with current formal procedures and social rules. It was indicated that fairness can be treated as an important factor in predicting the success of such projects. Interviews conducted among contractors in Kuyavian-Pomeranian region showed varied fairness requirements put to individual participants of construction projects. The article presents results of the research. It shows a desired attitude of the surveyed enterprises

  9. Radiation risk - historical perspective and current issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kellerer, Albrecht M. [Strahlenbiologisches Institut, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universitaet, Munich, Germany and Institute for Radiation Biology, GSF-National Research Center for Environment and Health, Neuherberg (Germany)

    2002-09-01

    The assessment of radiation risk needs to be seen against the background of a historical development that has reversed the initial belief in a general beneficial effect of radiation to apprehension and fear. Numerical risk estimates are, today, based on large epidemiological studies, and the observations on the A-bomb survivors are outlined as the primary source of information. Since the epidemiological findings are obtained from relatively high radiation exposures, extrapolations are required to the much lower doses that are relevant to radiation protection. The evolution of extrapolation procedures up to current attempts at mechanistic modelling is outlined, and some of the open issues are reviewed. (author)

  10. Radiation risk - historical perspective and current issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kellerer, Albrecht M.

    2002-01-01

    The assessment of radiation risk needs to be seen against the background of a historical development that has reversed the initial belief in a general beneficial effect of radiation to apprehension and fear. Numerical risk estimates are, today, based on large epidemiological studies, and the observations on the A-bomb survivors are outlined as the primary source of information. Since the epidemiological findings are obtained from relatively high radiation exposures, extrapolations are required to the much lower doses that are relevant to radiation protection. The evolution of extrapolation procedures up to current attempts at mechanistic modelling is outlined, and some of the open issues are reviewed. (author)

  11. Risk management integration into complex project organizations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, K.; Greanias, G.; Rose, J.; Dumas, R.

    2002-01-01

    This paper describes the approach used in designing and adapting the SIRTF prototype, discusses some of the lessons learned in developing the SIRTF prototype, and explains the adaptability of the risk management database to varying levels project complexity.

  12. Risk management for independent power projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Owen, J.L.

    1993-01-01

    Independent Power, where electric utilities or other bulk electric power users contract with individual electric power generation facilities to meet their projected long term power needs, has grown dramatically over the past ten years or more. This concept, to contract with Independent Power Producers (IPP), is not a new concept and in fact goes back to the early formation of the electric power industry in this country and worldwide. Successful Risk Management is the foundation for ultimate project completion and operation in fulfilling the expectations of all parties. The primary risks associated with the development of Independent Power projects include: predicting long term fuel availability and cost; predicting long term price for the deliverable of electricity; site selection, site characteristics and permitting; innovative or evolving technology; project execution (design and construction), and; lifetime O ampersand M costs and plant reliability. This paper focuses on the risks inherent in the development of IPPs and addresses the management of these risks

  13. Project Documentation as a Risk for Public Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladěna Štěpánková

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of the article: The paper presents the different methodologies used for creating documentation and focuses on public projects and their requirements for this documentation. Since documentation is also incorporated in the overall planning of the project and its duration is estimated using expert qualified estimate, can any change in this documentation lead to project delays, or increase its cost as a result of consuming administration, and therefore the documentation is seen as a risk, which may threaten the project as a public contract by which a company trying to achieve and obtains it, and generally any project. Methodology/methods: There are used methods of obtaining information in this paper. These are mainly structured interviews in combination with a brainstorming, furthermore also been used questionnaire for companies dealing with public procurement. As a data processing program was used MS Excel and basic statistical methods based on regression analysis. Scientific aim: The article deals with the construction market in the Czech Republic and examines the impact of changes in project documentation of public projects on their turnover. Findings: In this paper we summarize the advantages and disadvantages of having project documentation. In the case of public contracts and changes in legislation it is necessary to focus on creating documentation in advance, follow the new requirements and try to reach them in the shortest possible time. Conclusions: The paper concludes with recommendations on how to proceed, if these changes and how to reduce costs, which may cause the risk of documentation.

  14. COORDINATES OF A RISK MANAGEMENT PROJECT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ALEXANDRU OLTEANU

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available High risk – high benefit: a well-known correlation both in the economic field and in the day-to-day life. Another correlation, on which this article is based: large project – numerous participants – increased risks and other malfunctions. The risk management concept is challenged by those projects and is forced to find the most adequate “customized” ways for each project at its turn. In this respect, the assessment of management has followed the trend of the last three decades, marked by moving of management profit analysis by risk intermediation, respectively the transition from managing profit to risk-return relationship management. Such trend assumes the obligation of participants to identify objectives and expected benefits of the project on the basis of the strategies laid-down, the elements of risk management policies, in conjunction with the indication of the most negative scenarios which they may provide. This activity must take into consideration the process of obtaining and combining human, financial, physical and information resources in order to accomplish the primary goal of the proposed and wanted project by a certain segment of population. Project participants are directed to evaluate their own activities in terms of revenues and risks from the business access, opportunity, operating mode, as well as the limitations and boundaries on certain sides of activity. The paper focuses on the analysis and evaluation of incomes and risks, on simulations to streamline the activities and the determination of the optimal model of project choice. Also, the paper treats the risks that can be taken over by the sponsors, especially those related to implied guaranties, even implied guaranties.

  15. Managing Risks in Distributed Software Projects: An Integrative Framework

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Persson, John Stouby; Mathiassen, Lars; Boeg, Jesper

    2009-01-01

    techniques into an integrative framework for managing risks in distributed contexts. Subsequent implementation of a Web-based tool helped us refine the framework based on empirical evaluation of its practical usefulness.We conclude by discussing implications for both research and practice.......Software projects are increasingly geographically distributed with limited face-to-face interaction between participants. These projects face particular challenges that need carefulmanagerial attention. While risk management has been adopted with success to address other challenges within software...... development, there are currently no frameworks available for managing risks related to geographical distribution. On this background, we systematically review the literature on geographically distributed software projects. Based on the review, we synthesize what we know about risks and risk resolution...

  16. Project risk management in complex petrochemical system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kirin Snežana

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Investigation of risk in complex industrial systems, as well as evaluation of main factors influencing decision making and implementation process using large petrochemical company as an example, has proved the importance of successful project risk management. This is even more emphasized when analyzing systems with complex structure, i.e. with several organizational units. It has been shown that successful risk management requires modern methods, based on adequate application of statistical analysis methods.

  17. Clean development mechanism projects and portfolio risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuhashi, Ryuji; Fujisawa, Sei; Mitamura, Wataru; Momobayashi, Yutaka; Yoshida, Yoshikuni

    2004-01-01

    Clean development mechanism (CDM) is expected to facilitate technology transfer from developed to developing countries as well as to economically reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In this article, we explore effective institutions to activate CDM projects. For this purpose, we have estimated internal rate of return (IRR) and other indicators on profitability for 42 CDM or JI projects, taking account of volatilities in the price of certified emission reductions (CER). As a result of Monte Carlo simulations, expected values and standard deviations in the IRR of the projects were quantitatively shown. Then we evaluated various risks in CDM, concluding that diversification of investment is an effective way to suppress these risks. Therefore securitization of CDM finance is proposed as a means of facilitating the diversification of investment. Namely, we present the concept of a CDM bond, which is a project bond with CER. We also investigated the role of governments to suppress risks in CDM. Referring to CERUPT, initiated by the Netherlands' government, the institution of 'insured CERUPT' is proposed to suppress downside risks in the IRR of the projects. We concluded that it is possible to make CDM projects viable by the 'insured CERUPT' and CDM bond

  18. Consideration of Risk in PPP-Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josef Zimmermann

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Risk management has become a core competence for companies operating in construction services. In particular regarding Real Estate Development and Construction Management the fundamental knowledge and the dedicated ap- plication of risk assessment turn out to be critical. Construction Management deals with a multitude of local and temporal issues which are unknown or only given by statistical evaluation while conducting a unique construction project within a very tight frame of budget and time. Real Estate projects focus on the predictability of profitable operation for a fairly long period in advance and are therefore subject to many more and more voluminous uncertainties. With PPP-projects a more or less complete federal task is awarded to a private company. Its extent varies but com- prises at least design, construction and operation of a real estate project, e.g. a toll road, bridge, tunnel or other infrastructural object. Durations of such contracts of- ten extend to some 20 to 30 years. In this article the applicability of traditional means of risk management is inves- tigated for the use on PPP-projects and limits of risk consequences are pointed out. Finally we come to the conclusion, that the resulting unavertable risks tend to exceed every surcharge that could be successfully placed on a market.

  19. Current Risk Management Practices in Psychotherapy Supervision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehrtens, Ilayna K; Crapanzano, Kathleen; Tynes, L Lee

    2017-12-01

    Psychotherapy competence is a core skill for psychiatry residents, and psychotherapy supervision is a time-honored approach to teaching this skill. To explore the current supervision practices of psychiatry training programs, a 24-item questionnaire was sent to all program directors of Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME)-approved adult psychiatry programs. The questionnaire included items regarding adherence to recently proposed therapy supervision practices aimed at reducing potential liability risk. The results suggested that current therapy supervision practices do not include sufficient management of the potential liability involved in therapy supervision. Better protections for patients, residents, supervisors and the institutions would be possible with improved credentialing practices and better documentation of informed consent and supervision policies and procedures. © 2017 American Academy of Psychiatry and the Law.

  20. Project Portfolio Risk Identification and Analysis, Considering Project Risk Interactions and Using Bayesian Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Foroogh Ghasemi

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available An organization’s strategic objectives are accomplished through portfolios. However, the materialization of portfolio risks may affect a portfolio’s sustainable success and the achievement of those objectives. Moreover, project interdependencies and cause–effect relationships between risks create complexity for portfolio risk analysis. This paper presents a model using Bayesian network (BN methodology for modeling and analyzing portfolio risks. To develop this model, first, portfolio-level risks and risks caused by project interdependencies are identified. Then, based on their cause–effect relationships all portfolio risks are organized in a BN. Conditional probability distributions for this network are specified and the Bayesian networks method is used to estimate the probability of portfolio risk. This model was applied to a portfolio of a construction company located in Iran and proved effective in analyzing portfolio risk probability. Furthermore, the model provided valuable information for selecting a portfolio’s projects and making strategic decisions.

  1. Method ranks competing projects by priorities, risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moeckel, D.R.

    1993-01-01

    A practical, objective guide for ranking projects based on risk-based priorities has been developed by Sun Pipe Line Co. The deliberately simple system guides decisions on how to allocate scarce company resources because all managers employ the same criteria in weighing potential risks to the company versus benefits. Managers at all levels are continuously having to comply with an ever growing amount of legislative and regulatory requirements while at the same time trying to run their businesses effectively. The system primarily is designed for use as a compliance oversight and tracking process to document, categorize, and follow-up on work concerning various issues or projects. That is, the system consists of an electronic database which is updated periodically, and is used by various levels of management to monitor progress of health, safety, environmental and compliance-related projects. Criteria used in determining a risk factor and assigning a priority also have been adapted and found useful for evaluating other types of projects. The process enables management to better define potential risks and/or loss of benefits that are being accepted when a project is rejected from an immediate work plan or budget. In times of financial austerity, it is extremely important that the right decisions are made at the right time

  2. Risk-profile modification of energy projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Larson, B.O.

    1992-01-01

    The commodity futures and swaps markets are thought to be the invention of speculators, the bane of the oil business, or possibly something confined to finance departments of major corporations. In actuality, they should be considered more as an insurance vehicle and can be used at the project level to modify the risk profile of a property. In this context, an increased familiarity with them can be useful for an engineer. Either futures of swaps can be used to guarantee or modify product prices. While this does not necessarily maximize cash flow or present worth, it can protect a project or company for several years from downside price risk, thereby reducing the risk of the venture. This can be particularly important if lower product prices would cause unacceptable cash flows or net incomes. This paper reports that reducing risk by limiting downside price exposure could alter budgeting decisions, allow continued or expanded operations of a particular property, or increase debt capacity

  3. Financial risks in major investment projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Segelod, Esbjoern

    2006-01-01

    We have probably all read about large projects which proved far more expensive than anticipated, projects such as the Channel tunnel which cost 80% more than planned, and the oil pipeline between the oil field in Prudhoe Bay in Northern Alaska and the oil terminal in Vadez in the south which overran its budget by 1,000%. The purpose of this paper is to summarise our knowledge of the risk of cost escalation. Which projects are more likely than others to be hit by cost escalation, and why

  4. Renewable fuels: Policy effectiveness and project risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leach, Andrew; Doucet, Joseph; Nickel, Trevor

    2011-01-01

    This paper examines the impact of government policy on the risk profile of a small ethanol production facility. We derive four key results from a simulation model. First, we show that commodity price risk may discourage investment in a project, despite a positive expected rate of return. Second, we show that political uncertainty may have significant impacts on the risk profile of a project. Next, we show that using only production subsidies to attract investors is expensive, since the financial assistance is paid regardless of whether the plant is operating under positive or negative financial conditions. Finally, we show that a capital grant provides a valuable complement to a subsidy, because the grant reduces the amount of value investors must put at risk, and increases their leverage thereby enhancing returns, while the subsidy mitigates commodity price risk. Our results show that compared to a subsidy-only approach, a grant and subsidy combination provides an investment environment with similar downside protection and expected returns for less than 60% of the cost. Further, we show that the two policy tools combined yield a superior investment environment to that created by an equivalent or greater total investment deployed entirely in either of the policy tools without the other. - Research highlights: → We find that government policy may increase both project returns and risk. → We find a policy of capital grants combined with an output price support to be preferred. → Price supports alone will tend to reward those plants which need them the least.

  5. NASA Space Radiation Risk Project: Overview and Recent Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blattnig, Steve R.; Chappell, Lori J.; George, Kerry A.; Hada, Megumi; Hu, Shaowen; Kidane, Yared H.; Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Kovyrshina, Tatiana; Norman, Ryan B.; Nounu, Hatem N.; hide

    2015-01-01

    The NASA Space Radiation Risk project is responsible for integrating new experimental and computational results into models to predict risk of cancer and acute radiation syndrome (ARS) for use in mission planning and systems design, as well as current space operations. The project has several parallel efforts focused on proving NASA's radiation risk projection capability in both the near and long term. This presentation will give an overview, with select results from these efforts including the following topics: verification, validation, and streamlining the transition of models to use in decision making; relative biological effectiveness and dose rate effect estimation using a combination of stochastic track structure simulations, DNA damage model calculations and experimental data; ARS model improvements; pathway analysis from gene expression data sets; solar particle event probabilistic exposure calculation including correlated uncertainties for use in design optimization.

  6. The study of the risk management model of construction project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang Bo; Feng Yanping; Liu Changbin

    2010-01-01

    The paper first analyzed the development of the risk management of construction project and the risk management processes, and then briefly introduced the risk management experience of foreign project management. From the project management by objectives point of view, the greatest risk came from the lack of clarity of the objectives in the project management, which led to the project's risk emergence. In the analysis of the principles of the project objectives identification and risk allocation, the paper set up a project management model which insurance companies involved in the whole process of the project management, and simply analyzed the roles of insurance company at last. (authors)

  7. Comparisons on International Approaches of Business and Project Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Nadia Carmen ENE

    2005-01-01

    In this article we intend to present a comparative approach between three recognized international methodologies for risk management: RISKMAN, Project Management Institute Methodology-PMBoK and Project Risk Analysis and Management Guide (produced by Association for Project Management).

  8. PROJECT MANAGER SKILLS, RISK MANAGEMENT TOOLS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladut Iacob

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Although the projects are different from each other there are many common things that contribute to their success. Looked overall, the success of a project is the result of a multitude of factors. This person is considered the "engine" of the project. The man who makes the action set for the achievement of project objectives to be brought to an end. The project manager must have the technical knowledge and economic diverse. He should be able to choose a team and lead. You must be tenacious, combative, to know how to communicate both within the team and beyond. In a word, the project manager must have an impressive stock of knowledge, skills and abilities and appreciate as Peter Drucker, to "exist for the organization. To be its servant. Any management who forget this will only cause damage to the organization. "This study will focus on highlighting the skills of the project manager and their role in managing difficult situations or risk.

  9. Managing the risks of a large-scale infrastructure project : The case of Spoorzone Delft

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Priemus, H.

    2012-01-01

    Risk management in large-scale infrastructure projects is attracting the attention of academics and practitioners alike. After a brief summary of the theoretical background, this paper describes how the risk analysis and risk management shaped up in a current large-scale infrastructure project in

  10. The Strategic Risk Management at Different Stages of Innovation Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pysmak Viktoriia O.

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This article considers the theoretical principles of the strategic risk management at every stage of innovation project. Relevance of the selected area of research has been substantiated in view of the necessity to provide the theoretical and practical foundations for the strategic risk management of innovation activity. Principles of management of innovation at a contemporary enterprise have been allocated. Analysis of such concepts as «risk», «innovation», «strategic management» was carried out. The concept of «innovation project» has been considered, its features and characteristics have been allocated. The basic tools of the strategic management of enterprise in current conditions have been described. The basic principles of the strategic risk management of innovation activity have been formulated. A scheme with allocating the stages of innovation activity and the risks involved has been elaborated, taking into consideration the factors of occurrence of risks. The main groups of management strategies have been allocated. The tasks facing the managerial board in the process of the strategic risk management at every stage of the innovation project have been formulated.

  11. Applied software risk management a guide for software project managers

    CERN Document Server

    Pandian, C Ravindranath

    2006-01-01

    Few software projects are completed on time, on budget, and to their original specifications. Focusing on what practitioners need to know about risk in the pursuit of delivering software projects, Applied Software Risk Management: A Guide for Software Project Managers covers key components of the risk management process and the software development process, as well as best practices for software risk identification, risk planning, and risk analysis. Written in a clear and concise manner, this resource presents concepts and practical insight into managing risk. It first covers risk-driven project management, risk management processes, risk attributes, risk identification, and risk analysis. The book continues by examining responses to risk, the tracking and modeling of risks, intelligence gathering, and integrated risk management. It concludes with details on drafting and implementing procedures. A diary of a risk manager provides insight in implementing risk management processes.Bringing together concepts ...

  12. Correlational Study of Risk Management and Information Technology Project Success

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillespie, Seth J.

    2014-01-01

    Many IT projects fail despite the best efforts to keep these projects within budget, schedule, and scope. Few studies have looked at the effect of project risk management tools and techniques on project success. The primary focus of this study was to examine the extent to which utilization of project risk management processes influence project…

  13. PECULIARITIES OF ASSESSMENT AND RISK MANAGEMENT IN INNOVATIVE PROJECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victor V. Guzhov

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The methodological and methodicalbases of risk management in innovativeprojects. Classification of risks. Types of risks depending on the stage of realizationof the innovative project. Investigated thefactors contributing to the emergence ofrisk situations. The basic techniques of risk management of innovation projects.Proposed criteria for the choice of the innovative project to implement in the realsector of the economy.

  14. Risk Management in the Implementation of Smart Building Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kankhva Vadim

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This article contains the results of a study of the risk control structure in the implementation of smart building projects, which are presented herein in the form of an operational risk management mechanism developed by the author and an improved definition of the risk management system. The mechanism is developed based on the analysis of a review of the current state of the construction sector and the existing organizational structures of construction companies, as well as based on the identification of new necessary functions and objectives of risk management systems. The results of the study can be used in the process of development and integration of risk management systems by the existing construction companies specialized in the construction of smart buildings.

  15. Risk Management for New Product Development Projects in Food Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Porananond, D.

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Project risk management provides a guideline for decision making in new product development (NPD projects, reducing uncertainty and increasing success rate. However, the acceptance of formal risk management applications in industry, especially for NPD projects is still in question. A study of a food conglomerate in Thailand found that only 9% of NPD projects used a systematic approach for managing risk. 61% of the projects realised the importance of risk management, while the remaining 30% did not involve risk management at all. This study aims to develop a risk management model for NPD projects in the food industry. The first section of this paper reviews the literature on risk management theory, including international standards for risk and project management (ISO31000 and ISO21500, publications for the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK, by a professional organisation the Project Management Institute (PMI, and also academic research. 182 academic papers, published between January 2002 and August 2012 were selected. The second part interviews conducted with eight NPD experts from five of the major food manufacturers in Thailand to examine their risk management practices and problems. Conclusions are made on five topics : classification of research method, project type and industrial segment, distribution of articles by region, tools & techniques for risk management and risk factors in projects. Specific requirements of risk management for NPD projects in the food industry are identified. A risk management model and the concept of risk management applications for the food industry are proposed.

  16. Current Research Status of KHNP for Site Risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oh, Kyemin; Jeon, Ho-Jun; Bahng, Ki-In; Na, Jang-Hwan [KHNP CRI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    In Korea, by the geographical characteristics, many Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) have been constructed and operated at a single site. This is above average level or number of plants per site in the world. For this reason, the public concerns for the safety of nuclear facilities increased after Fukushima Daiichi accident. As a result, comprehensive risk assessment and management for the site which have multi-unit NPPs were strongly asked. Currently, to solve it, many researches and projects has carried out by various Korean companies, research centers, and regulatory authorities. In this paper, R and D plans of KHNP for multi-unit risk were summarized. Firstly, the needs of multi-unit PSA were reviewed. R and D activities and plans of KHNP were summarized in the last part. In this paper, we summarized the R and D plans of KHNP for assessing the multi-unit risk. Currently, multi-unit risk or multi-unit PSA are important and practical issues in both nuclear industry and national energy policy. After Fukushima accident, several countries stopped the construction and the operation of NPPs, other countries which is maintaining the NPPs are being strongly asked to assess the risk for multi-unit NPPs at the same site. Because of Korean geographical characteristics, the number of NPPs which are above average level or number of plants per site in the world is being constructed and operated at a single site. The population density nearby each site is considered to be higher than that of other countries.

  17. Current Research Status of KHNP for Site Risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oh, Kyemin; Jeon, Ho-Jun; Bahng, Ki-In; Na, Jang-Hwan

    2016-01-01

    In Korea, by the geographical characteristics, many Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) have been constructed and operated at a single site. This is above average level or number of plants per site in the world. For this reason, the public concerns for the safety of nuclear facilities increased after Fukushima Daiichi accident. As a result, comprehensive risk assessment and management for the site which have multi-unit NPPs were strongly asked. Currently, to solve it, many researches and projects has carried out by various Korean companies, research centers, and regulatory authorities. In this paper, R and D plans of KHNP for multi-unit risk were summarized. Firstly, the needs of multi-unit PSA were reviewed. R and D activities and plans of KHNP were summarized in the last part. In this paper, we summarized the R and D plans of KHNP for assessing the multi-unit risk. Currently, multi-unit risk or multi-unit PSA are important and practical issues in both nuclear industry and national energy policy. After Fukushima accident, several countries stopped the construction and the operation of NPPs, other countries which is maintaining the NPPs are being strongly asked to assess the risk for multi-unit NPPs at the same site. Because of Korean geographical characteristics, the number of NPPs which are above average level or number of plants per site in the world is being constructed and operated at a single site. The population density nearby each site is considered to be higher than that of other countries

  18. Risk profile modification of energy projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Larson, B.O.

    1992-01-01

    The commodity futures and swaps markets are thought by some to be the invention of speculators, the bane of the oil business, or possibly something confined to finance departments of major corporations. In actuality, they should be considered more as insurance and can be utilized at the project level to modify the risk profile of a property. In this context, an increased familiarity with them can be useful for an engineer. This paper reports that either futures or swaps can be used to guarantee or modify product prices, an accomplishment very difficult or impossible to duplicate through other means, particularly with such integrity. Participation in futures or swaps does not necessarily maximize cashflow or present worth, it can either guarantee the price, put a minimum price in place or offer a combination of the above. A project or company can be protected for several years from downside price risk using swaps. Not being subject to market price swings substantially reduces the risk of the venture. This can be particularly important if lower product prices would cause unacceptable cashflows or net incomes

  19. Risk Factors in ERP Implementation Projects for Process Oriented

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrzej Partyka

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper present review and analysis of risk factors, which could affect successful implementation of ERP system, for project performed in project oriented organizations. Presented risk breakdown structure and the list of common risk factors, are well-suited for ERP implementation projects. Considered risk categories allow for complex risk analysis. Additionally, mapping of risk importance for particular implementation phases is presented. Making presented model an important input for project risk management process, especially for the beginning phases which require identification of risk factors.

  20. Effects of Risk Management Practices on IT Project Success

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pimchangthong Daranee

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Successful management of an information technology (IT project is the most desirable for all organisations and stakeholders. Many researchers elaborated that risk management is a key part of project management for any project size. Risk management is so critical because it provides project managers with a forward-looking view of both threats and opportunities to improve the project success. The objectives of this research are to explore organisational factors affecting IT project success and risk management practices influencing IT project success. Risk management practices include risk identification, risk analysis, risk response planning, and risk monitoring and control. The IT project success is measured by process performance and product performance. Data are collected from 200 project managers, IT managers, and IT analysts in IT firms through questionnaires and analysed using Independent Sample t-test, One-way ANOVA, and Multiple Linear Regression at the statistical significance level of 0.05. The results show that the differences in organisational types affect IT project success in all aspects, while the differences on organisational sizes affect IT project success in the aspect of product performance and total aspects. Risk identification and risk response planning influence the process performance and the total aspects of IT project success. Risk identification has the highest positive influence on product performance, followed closely by risk response, while risk analysis negatively influences product performance.

  1. Information technology project risk management in Peru

    OpenAIRE

    Del Carpio Gallegos, Javier

    2014-01-01

    This article shows how some principles, uses, and practices of risk management are applied in information technology projects in Peru; in the last four years, in representative sectors like manufacturing, banking, information and communications, academics institutions, construction, government, consulting, services, and others. El presente artículo muestra algunos principios, usos y prácticas de cómo la gestión de riesgos de proyectos de tecnología se ha llevado a cabo en los últimos cuatr...

  2. Review of the project risk management plan in the capital projects organization at ConocoPhillips

    OpenAIRE

    Meidell, Camilla

    2011-01-01

    Master's thesis in Risk management Project Risk Management (PRM) has in recent years become an important aspect of business organization and project management. There has always been a requirement for some risk management at COPNO. However about 3 years ago the process became much more defined and has become a requirement for the contingency used on projects to be based upon the risking process. Since risk management in projects is a requirement in the CP organization it is ...

  3. Prototype Biology-Based Radiation Risk Module Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terrier, Douglas; Clayton, Ronald G.; Patel, Zarana; Hu, Shaowen; Huff, Janice

    2015-01-01

    Biological effects of space radiation and risk mitigation are strategic knowledge gaps for the Evolvable Mars Campaign. The current epidemiology-based NASA Space Cancer Risk (NSCR) model contains large uncertainties (HAT #6.5a) due to lack of information on the radiobiology of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and lack of human data. The use of experimental models that most accurately replicate the response of human tissues is critical for precision in risk projections. Our proposed study will compare DNA damage, histological, and cell kinetic parameters after irradiation in normal 2D human cells versus 3D tissue models, and it will use a multi-scale computational model (CHASTE) to investigate various biological processes that may contribute to carcinogenesis, including radiation-induced cellular signaling pathways. This cross-disciplinary work, with biological validation of an evolvable mathematical computational model, will help reduce uncertainties within NSCR and aid risk mitigation for radiation-induced carcinogenesis.

  4. Aquantis C-Plane Ocean Current Turbine Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fleming, Alex [Dehlsen Associates, LLC, Santa Barbara, CA (United States)

    2015-09-16

    The Aquantis 2.5 MW Ocean Current Generation Device technology developed by Dehlsen Associates, LLC (DA) is a derivation of wind power generating technology (a means of harnessing a slow moving fluid) adapted to the ocean environment. The Aquantis Project provides an opportunity for accelerated technological development and early commercialization, since it involves the joining of two mature disciplines: ocean engineering and wind turbine design. The Aquantis Current Plane (C-Plane) technology is an ocean current turbine designed to extract kinetic energy from a current flow. The technology is capable of achieving competitively priced, continuous, base-load, and reliable power generation from a source of renewable energy not before possible in this scale or form.

  5. Consortium for Offshore Aviation Research : description of current projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1998-01-01

    The five projects which are currently underway or being evaluated through the Consortium for Offshore Aviation Research (COAR) were described. The projects are: (1) the use of narrow-beam, high intensity searchlights as approach aids for helicopter landings on helidecks in low visibility conditions, (2) establishment of a precipitation and fog characterization facility forecasting, (3) use of ice-phobic materials for airframe anti-icing, (4) use of differential global positioning satellite systems for offshore operations, and (5) the development of a virtual reality head-up-display for the approach to the Hibernia helideck (or any other helideck) to facilitate low visibility landings. Seed funding for these projects has been provided by the European Space Agency. Additional support is being provided by Hibernia, Petro-Canada, Husky Oil and Chevron Oil Canada. Initiatives to increase the number of partners are underway. 1 fig

  6. Risk managements' communicative effects influencing IT project success

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Bakker, Karel; Boonstra, Albert; Wortmann, Hans

    The central question of this research is if, and how, risk management contributes to the success of IS/IT projects. Risk management is used regularly in IT projects, despite indications in literature that risk management only occasionally contributes to IT project success. Drawing on Habermas we

  7. Current status of RCA projects and strategies for future implementation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Kyoung Pyo; Lee, Jeong Kong

    1998-12-01

    This report is intended to provide basic overall information about ways to promote technical cooperation within the framework of RCA to accelerate and coordinate cooperative activities in nuclear science and technology in Asia and the Pacific region through a thorough review on the current status and through suggesting future implementation strategies. The contents of this report include an overall introduction of RCA, guidelines and operating rules for RCA programmes, current status and future plans for RCA projects as well as the RCA vision for the next 25 years. By reviewing the current status and future implementation strategies for RCA projects, it will help to set up a national nuclear policy aimed at seeking maximum benefits from participation in RCA projects and to implement programmes for nuclear cooperation with Asian-Pacific countries. It is expected that as a lead country for the energy sector, which is one of five thematic areas for the year 1999 - 2000 cycle programmes, Korea will continue to make significant contributions towards the implementation of RCA programmes in the future. With this report, we plan to keep up with future developments as well as implement an effective cooperation with the countries in the region so that the opinion of Korea, one of the nuclear advanced countries in the region, can be fully reflected in the establishment of future plans for RCA programmes. (author). 3 refs., 5 tabs., 1 fig

  8. Peculiarities of the risk management system organization in current conditions

    OpenAIRE

    MIKHIN P.O.

    2014-01-01

    Risk-management system organization problem is topical nowadays. The innovation activity is defined as an activity vulnerable to risk and needs more attention. The basic approaches and elements of organization structure development in risk-management system are considered to find out the best structure for business modelling usage. Balance and combination of risk-management system types are required in current conditions.

  9. Regional absolute conductivity reconstruction using projected current density in MREIT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sajib, Saurav Z K; Kim, Hyung Joong; Woo, Eung Je; Kwon, Oh In

    2012-01-01

    Magnetic resonance electrical impedance tomography (MREIT) is a non-invasive technique for imaging the internal conductivity distribution in tissue within an MRI scanner, utilizing the magnetic flux density, which is introduced when a current is injected into the tissue from external electrodes. This magnetic flux alters the MRI signal, so that appropriate reconstruction can provide a map of the additional z-component of the magnetic field (B z ) as well as the internal current density distribution that created it. To extract the internal electrical properties of the subject, including the conductivity and/or the current density distribution, MREIT techniques use the relationship between the external injection current and the z-component of the magnetic flux density B = (B x , B y , B z ). The tissue studied typically contains defective regions, regions with a low MRI signal and/or low MRI signal-to-noise-ratio, due to the low density of nuclear magnetic resonance spins, short T 2 or T* 2 relaxation times, as well as regions with very low electrical conductivity, through which very little current traverses. These defective regions provide noisy B z data, which can severely degrade the overall reconstructed conductivity distribution. Injecting two independent currents through surface electrodes, this paper proposes a new direct method to reconstruct a regional absolute isotropic conductivity distribution in a region of interest (ROI) while avoiding the defective regions. First, the proposed method reconstructs the contrast of conductivity using the transversal J-substitution algorithm, which blocks the propagation of severe accumulated noise from the defective region to the ROI. Second, the proposed method reconstructs the regional projected current density using the relationships between the internal current density, which stems from a current injection on the surface, and the measured B z data. Combining the contrast conductivity distribution in the entire imaging

  10. [The risk of direct current countershock].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gajek, J; Zyśko, D

    2001-07-01

    Direct current cardioversion (DCC) is a procedure commonly used to restore the sinus rhythm in patients with supraventricular and ventricular arrhythmias. Its safety, regarding the use of electric current, is still a matter of controversy and debate. The patients with atrial fibrillation/flutter, supraventricular or ventricular tachycardia represent a broad spectrum of clinical conditions and it is difficult to draw the conclusions. The high success rate of DCC in restoring the sinus rhythm, may be partly responsible for enhancing and revealing proarrhythmic properties of antiarrhythmic drugs. The deaths described as a complications of DCC were mainly due to the proarrhythmia and less common to the progression of the pathologic process. The embolic, arrhythmic and anesthetic complications of DCC can be prevented if the known recommendations of performing the DCC are followed. The authors review critically the literature data about the complications of the procedure and come to the conclusion of safety of DCC.

  11. Tank Waste Remediation System Characterization Project Programmatic Risk Management Plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baide, D.G.; Webster, T.L.

    1995-12-01

    The TWRS Characterization Project has developed a process and plan in order to identify, manage and control the risks associated with tank waste characterization activities. The result of implementing this process is a defined list of programmatic risks (i.e. a risk management list) that are used by the Project as management tool. This concept of risk management process is a commonly used systems engineering approach which is being applied to all TWRS program and project elements. The Characterization Project risk management plan and list are subset of the overall TWRS risk management plan and list

  12. Current features on risk perception and risk communication of radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kusama, Tomoko

    1997-01-01

    Health effects and risks of radiation and radionuclides are being misunderstood by many members of general public. Many peoples have fear and anxieties for radiation. So far, the health effects from radiation at low dose and low dose rate have not been cleared on biological aspects. Then, we have quantitatively estimated health risks of low-dose radiation on the basis of linear dose response relationship without threshold from the viewpoints of radiation protection by using both epidemiological data, such as atomic bomb survivors, and some models and assumptions. It is important for researchers and relevant persons in radiation protection to understand the process of risk estimation of radiation and to communicate an exact knowledge of radiation risks of the public members. (author)

  13. Bayesian-network-based safety risk analysis in construction projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Limao; Wu, Xianguo; Skibniewski, Miroslaw J.; Zhong, Jingbing; Lu, Yujie

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a systemic decision support approach for safety risk analysis under uncertainty in tunnel construction. Fuzzy Bayesian Networks (FBN) is used to investigate causal relationships between tunnel-induced damage and its influential variables based upon the risk/hazard mechanism analysis. Aiming to overcome limitations on the current probability estimation, an expert confidence indicator is proposed to ensure the reliability of the surveyed data for fuzzy probability assessment of basic risk factors. A detailed fuzzy-based inference procedure is developed, which has a capacity of implementing deductive reasoning, sensitivity analysis and abductive reasoning. The “3σ criterion” is adopted to calculate the characteristic values of a triangular fuzzy number in the probability fuzzification process, and the α-weighted valuation method is adopted for defuzzification. The construction safety analysis progress is extended to the entire life cycle of risk-prone events, including the pre-accident, during-construction continuous and post-accident control. A typical hazard concerning the tunnel leakage in the construction of Wuhan Yangtze Metro Tunnel in China is presented as a case study, in order to verify the applicability of the proposed approach. The results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed approach and its application potential. A comparison of advantages and disadvantages between FBN and fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA) as risk analysis tools is also conducted. The proposed approach can be used to provide guidelines for safety analysis and management in construction projects, and thus increase the likelihood of a successful project in a complex environment. - Highlights: • A systemic Bayesian network based approach for safety risk analysis is developed. • An expert confidence indicator for probability fuzzification is proposed. • Safety risk analysis progress is extended to entire life cycle of risk-prone events. • A typical

  14. Overlapping Boundaries of the Project Time Management and Project Risk Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marius PODEAN

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on utility function, milestones during project and/or the end of projects or programme may be categorized in what are called soft-deadline and hard-deadline. In contrast with the soft-end projects, the hard-end projects posses a decrease of utility function with a vertical asymptote character around the deadline for project completion. In extreme situations, the utility function itself may fall under zero (projects may generate losses to both constructor and customer. Existing risk analysis methodologies observe risks from monetary terms. The typical risks are correlated with an increase in final project costs. In order to estimate harddeadline milestones and/or end of projects or programme is critical to employ the time dimension rather than the typical cost-based risk analysis. Here, we comprehensively describe a structured methodology that focuses on minimizing and mitigating project specific delay risks. The method may supplement existing cost-based risk analysis in projects. We aim to elegantly combine moderation techniques to reveal the intrinsic risk of the projects. In addition to the technical risks, the moderation techniques are able to bring evidence of risks as the team efficacy, diverse un-correlations or miss-understanding about the roles of the team members in the team – most of the project soft risk. Described methodology encourages the common understanding of risks for participants, crystallizing the essence of what can go wrong in complex situations and where the opportunities can be unlocked.

  15. Study on Risk Approaches in Software Development Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudiu BRANDAS

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk approaches in project development led to the integration in the IT project management methodologies and software development of activities and processes of risk management. The diversity and the advanced level of the used technologies in IT projects with increasing com-plexity leads to an exponential diversification of risk factors.The purpose of this research is to identify the level of the risk approach in IT projects both at the IT project management and software development methodologies level and the level of the perception of IT project man-agers, IT managers and IT analysts in Romanian IT companies. Thus, we want to determine the correlation between the use of a project management or software development methodology and the overall level of risk perceived by the project managers using these methodologies.

  16. Project finance risks - getting it right first time

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bain, F.

    1996-01-01

    Bankers seeking to invest in the construction of new power stations by independent power producers, face greater risks than those lending to companies. Independent risk and insurance advisers are used to assess project risk. ''Project finance'' has become increasingly popular as it allows projects to go ahead that could not be supported from sponsors' own resources. In addition, project finance means that various equity partners can join together in a joint venture company and limit their individual risk. Project finance can be delayed by differences between the needs of sponsors, financiers and insurers. The process can be speeded up by foreknowledge of bankers' requirements. (UK)

  17. Simple steps help minimize costs, risks in project contracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Camps, J.A.

    1996-01-01

    Contrary to prevailing opinion, risks and project financing costs can be higher for lump sum (LS) project contracts than under reimbursable-type contracts. An element-by-element analysis of the risks and costs associated with a project enables investors to develop variations of reimbursable contracts. Project managers can use this three-step procedure, along with other recommendations, to measure the hidden project costs and risks associated with LS contracts. The author bases his conclusions on case studies of recent projects in the petroleum refining and petrochemical industries. The findings, however, are general enough to be applicable in other industrial sectors

  18. Project Structuring and Risk Allocation for NPP Construction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaser, Greg

    2013-01-01

    This presentation treats of the project risks and how to mitigate major risks and structure a new project. It also talks about the contract implications to handle the specificities of a new project: design complexities, interface between the engineering, procurement and constructing contractors, and finally discusses the necessity of a stable regulatory environment and the role of government

  19. The Current and Projected Taxpayer Shares of US Health Costs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Himmelstein, David U; Woolhandler, Steffie

    2016-03-01

    We estimated taxpayers' current and projected share of US health expenditures, including government payments for public employees' health benefits as well as tax subsidies to private health spending. We tabulated official Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services figures on direct government spending for health programs and public employees' health benefits for 2013, and projected figures through 2024. We calculated the value of tax subsidies for private spending from official federal budget documents and figures for state and local tax collections. Tax-funded health expenditures totaled $1.877 trillion in 2013 and are projected to increase to $3.642 trillion in 2024. Government's share of overall health spending was 64.3% of national health expenditures in 2013 and will rise to 67.1% in 2024. Government health expenditures in the United States account for a larger share of gross domestic product (11.2% in 2013) than do total health expenditures in any other nation. Contrary to public perceptions and official Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services estimates, government funds most health care in the United States. Appreciation of government's predominant role in health funding might encourage more appropriate and equitable targeting of health expenditures.

  20. Improvement of the projection models for radiogenic cancer risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tong Jian

    2005-01-01

    Calculations of radiogenic cancer risk are based on the risk projection models for specific cancer sites. Improvement has been made for the parameters used in the previous models including introductions of mortality and morbidity risk coefficients, and age-/ gender-specific risk coefficients. These coefficients have been applied to calculate the radiogenic cancer risks for specific organs and radionuclides under different exposure scenarios. (authors)

  1. KPMU projects. Current environmental situation and expected developments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ribarska, T.

    2010-01-01

    The following KPMU projects are described: Dry storage facility, which will allow the dry storage of 5256 fuel assemblies, currently stored in the spent fuel ponds of reactors of Units 3,4 and the WSF; Projects for equipment and activities related to management of liquid RAW which is already have being implemented on the site and are therefore covered in the current KNPP EIA; Ion Exchange Resin retrieval and Conditioning Equipment; Plasma melting facility; Facility for Retrieval and Processing of The Solidified Phase from Evaporator Concentrate Tanks; Control of Liquid and Gaseous Releases for the Units under Decommissioning at KNPP; Size Reduction and Decontamination Active Workshop –Design, Construction and Equipment Supply and Installation; Supply of: dismantling, size reduction and decontamination tools and equipment; Infrastructure and security perimeter separation; Heat generation plant; EIA for Decommissioning of units 1 to 4; Decay Storage Site for Transitional RAW; Site for Conventional Waste from Decommissioning; Inventory, Treatment and Conditioning of Contaminated Soils; Waste Backlog Treatment

  2. Risk Management in Information Technology Project: An Empirical Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kornelius Irfandhi

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The companies are facing some risks due to changes in a dynamic environment. If risks are not managed properly, it will have some negative impacts on the companies at the present and the future. One important function of the Information Technology (IT governance is risk management. Risk management in IT project aims to provide a safe environment for IT projects undertaken. Risk management becomes an important process for the success of IT projects. This article discussed the risk of IT project and whether there was a relationship between risk management and the success of the project. The method used was performing a literature review of several scientific articles which published between 2010 and 2014. The results of this study are the presence of risk management and risk manager influence the success of the project. Risk analysis and risk monitoring and control also have a relationship with the subjective performance of IT projects. If risk management is applied properly, the chance of the success of the projects undertaken can be increased. 

  3. Supporting Current Energy Conversion Projects through Numerical Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, S. C.; Roberts, J.

    2016-02-01

    The primary goals of current energy conversion (CEC) technology being developed today are to optimize energy output and minimize environmental impact. CEC turbines generate energy from tidal and current systems and create wakes that interact with turbines located downstream of a device. The placement of devices can greatly influence power generation and structural reliability. CECs can also alter the environment surrounding the turbines, such as flow regimes, sediment dynamics, and water quality. These alterations pose potential stressors to numerous environmental receptors. Software is needed to investigate specific CEC sites to simulate power generation and hydrodynamic responses of a flow through a CEC turbine array so that these potential impacts can be evaluated. Moreover, this software can be used to optimize array layouts that yield the least changes to the environmental (i.e., hydrodynamics, sediment dynamics, and water quality). Through model calibration exercises, simulated wake profiles and turbulence intensities compare favorably to the experimental data and demonstrate the utility and accuracy of a fast-running tool for future siting and analysis of CEC arrays in complex domains. The Delft3D modeling tool facilitates siting of CEC projects through optimization of array layouts and evaluation of potential environmental effect all while provide a common "language" for academics, industry, and regulators to be able to discuss the implications of marine renewable energy projects. Given the enormity of any full-scale marine renewable energy project, it necessarily falls to modeling to evaluate how array operations must be addressed in an environmental impact statement in a way that engenders confidence in the assessment of the CEC array to minimize environmental effects.

  4. Review of the current status of radiation risk estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Charles, M.W.; Little, M.P.

    1988-10-01

    This report reviews the current status of radiation risk estimation for low linear energy transfer radiation. Recent statements by various national and international organisations regarding risk estimates are critically discussed. The recently published revised population risk estimates from the study of Japanese bomb survivors are also reviewed and used with some unpublished data from Japan to calculate risk figures for a general work force. (author)

  5. Integrated Risk Management Within NASA Programs/Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connley, Warren; Rad, Adrian; Botzum, Stephen

    2004-01-01

    As NASA Project Risk Management activities continue to evolve, the need to successfully integrate risk management processes across the life cycle, between functional disciplines, stakeholders, various management policies, and within cost, schedule and performance requirements/constraints become more evident and important. Today's programs and projects are complex undertakings that include a myriad of processes, tools, techniques, management arrangements and other variables all of which must function together in order to achieve mission success. The perception and impact of risk may vary significantly among stakeholders and may influence decisions that may have unintended consequences on the project during a future phase of the life cycle. In these cases, risks may be unintentionally and/or arbitrarily transferred to others without the benefit of a comprehensive systemic risk assessment. Integrating risk across people, processes, and project requirements/constraints serves to enhance decisions, strengthen communication pathways, and reinforce the ability of the project team to identify and manage risks across the broad spectrum of project management responsibilities. The ability to identify risks in all areas of project management increases the likelihood a project will identify significant issues before they become problems and allows projects to make effective and efficient use of shrinking resources. By getting a total team integrated risk effort, applying a disciplined and rigorous process, along with understanding project requirements/constraints provides the opportunity for more effective risk management. Applying an integrated approach to risk management makes it possible to do a better job at balancing safety, cost, schedule, operational performance and other elements of risk. This paper will examine how people, processes, and project requirements/constraints can be integrated across the project lifecycle for better risk management and ultimately improve the

  6. Dealing with project complexity by matrix-based propagation modelling for project risk analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Fang , Chao; Marle , Franck

    2012-01-01

    International audience; Engineering projects are facing a growing complexity and are thus exposed to numerous and interdependent risks. In this paper, we present a quantitative method for modelling propagation behaviour in the project risk network. The construction of the network requires the involvement of the project manager and related experts using the Design Structure Matrix (DSM) method. A matrix-based risk propagation model is introduced to calculate risk propagation and thus to re-eva...

  7. Current and future flood risk to railway infrastructure in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bubeck, Philip; Kellermann, Patric; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Feyen, Luc; Dillenardt, Lisa; Thieken, Annegret H.

    2017-04-01

    CORINE, due to their line shapes. To assess current and future damage and risk to railway infrastructure in Europe, we apply the damage model RAIL -' RAilway Infrastructure Loss' that was specifically developed for railway infrastructure using empirical damage data. To adequately and comprehensively capture the line-shaped features of railway infrastructure, the assessment makes use of the open-access data set of openrailway.org. Current and future flood hazard in Europe is obtained with the LISFLOOD-based pan-European flood hazard mapping procedure combined with ensemble projections of extreme streamflow for the current century based on EURO-CORDEX RCP 8.5 climate scenarios. The presentation shows first results of the combination of the hazard data and the model RAIL for Europe.

  8. On Best Practices for Risk Management in Complex Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dan BENTA

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk management shall be proactive. This is one of the key preliminaries to cope with the challenges of complex projects. An overarching and consistent view on project risks and uncertainties is necessary to follow a holistic approach in project risk management. Uncertainty is inevitable since projects are unique and temporary undertakings based on assumptions and constraints, delivering project results to multiple stakeholders with different requirements. Project management can be seen as an attempt to control this uncertain environment, through the use of structured and disciplined techniques such as estimating, planning, cost control, task allocation, earned value analysis, monitoring, and review meetings. Each of these elements of project management has a role in defining or controlling inherent variability in projects. Project risk management provides approaches by which uncertainty can be understood, assessed, and managed within projects. A number of associations (e.g., Project Management Institute – PMI®, International Project Management Association – IPMA,or Network of Nordic Project Management Associations - NORDNET work constantly in acquiring, improving, and standardizing best practices in project management.Based on the industrial practice, this paper outlines strategies to identify, prioritize, and mitigate risks for achievement of project’ or organizational objectives.

  9. Adoption of Building Information Modelling in project planning risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mering, M. M.; Aminudin, E.; Chai, C. S.; Zakaria, R.; Tan, C. S.; Lee, Y. Y.; Redzuan, A. A.

    2017-11-01

    An efficient and effective risk management required a systematic and proper methodology besides knowledge and experience. However, if the risk management is not discussed from the starting of the project, this duty is notably complicated and no longer efficient. This paper presents the adoption of Building Information Modelling (BIM) in project planning risk management. The objectives is to identify the traditional risk management practices and its function, besides, determine the best function of BIM in risk management and investigating the efficiency of adopting BIM-based risk management during the project planning phase. In order to obtain data, a quantitative approach is adopted in this research. Based on data analysis, the lack of compliance with project requirements and failure to recognise risk and develop responses to opportunity are the risks occurred when traditional risk management is implemented. When using BIM in project planning, it works as the tracking of cost control and cash flow give impact on the project cycle to be completed on time. 5D cost estimation or cash flow modeling benefit risk management in planning, controlling and managing budget and cost reasonably. There were two factors that mostly benefit a BIM-based technology which were formwork plan with integrated fall plan and design for safety model check. By adopting risk management, potential risks linked with a project and acknowledging to those risks can be identified to reduce them to an acceptable extent. This means recognizing potential risks and avoiding threat by reducing their negative effects. The BIM-based risk management can enhance the planning process of construction projects. It benefits the construction players in various aspects. It is important to know the application of BIM-based risk management as it can be a lesson learnt to others to implement BIM and increase the quality of the project.

  10. Aespoe hard rock laboratory. Current research projects 1998

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-12-31

    In 1986 SKB decided to construct the Aespoe Hard Rock Laboratory (HRL) in order to provide an opportunity for research, development and demonstration in a realistic and undisturbed underground rock environment down to the depth planned for the future deep repository. The focus of current and future work is on development and testing of site characterization methods, verification of models describing the function of the natural and engineered barriers and development, testing, and demonstration of repository technology. The program has been organised so that all important steps in the development of a repository are covered, in other words the Aespoe HRL constitutes a `dress rehearsal` for the Swedish deep geological repository for spent fuel and other long-lived waste. Geoscientific investigations on Aespoe and nearby islands began in 1986. Aespoe was selected as the site for the laboratory in 1988. Construction of the facility, which reaches a depth of 460 m below the surface, began in 1990 and was completed in 1995. A major milestone had been reached in 1996 with the completion of the pre-investigation and construction phases of the Aespoe HRL. The comprehensive research conducted has permitted valuable development and verification of site characterization methods applied from the ground surface, boreholes, and underground excavations. The results of this research are summarised in the book `Aespoe Hard Rock Laboratory - 10 years of Research` published by SKB in 1996. The Operating Phase of the Aespoe HRL began in 1995 and is expected to continue for 15-20 years, that is until the first stage of the development of the Swedish deep geological repository for spent nuclear fuel is expected to be completed. A number of research projects were initiated at the start of the Operating Phase. Most of these projects have made substantial progress since then and important results have been obtained. The purpose of this brochure is to provide a brief presentation of the

  11. Aespoe hard rock laboratory. Current research projects 1998

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-01-01

    In 1986 SKB decided to construct the Aespoe Hard Rock Laboratory (HRL) in order to provide an opportunity for research, development and demonstration in a realistic and undisturbed underground rock environment down to the depth planned for the future deep repository. The focus of current and future work is on development and testing of site characterization methods, verification of models describing the function of the natural and engineered barriers and development, testing, and demonstration of repository technology. The program has been organised so that all important steps in the development of a repository are covered, in other words the Aespoe HRL constitutes a 'dress rehearsal' for the Swedish deep geological repository for spent fuel and other long-lived waste. Geoscientific investigations on Aespoe and nearby islands began in 1986. Aespoe was selected as the site for the laboratory in 1988. Construction of the facility, which reaches a depth of 460 m below the surface, began in 1990 and was completed in 1995. A major milestone had been reached in 1996 with the completion of the pre-investigation and construction phases of the Aespoe HRL. The comprehensive research conducted has permitted valuable development and verification of site characterization methods applied from the ground surface, boreholes, and underground excavations. The results of this research are summarised in the book 'Aespoe Hard Rock Laboratory - 10 years of Research' published by SKB in 1996. The Operating Phase of the Aespoe HRL began in 1995 and is expected to continue for 15-20 years, that is until the first stage of the development of the Swedish deep geological repository for spent nuclear fuel is expected to be completed. A number of research projects were initiated at the start of the Operating Phase. Most of these projects have made substantial progress since then and important results have been obtained. The purpose of this brochure is to provide a brief presentation of the

  12. Project risk as identity threat: explaining the development and consequences of risk discourse in an infrastructure project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Os, A.; van Berkel, F.J.F.W.; de Gilder, T.C.; van Dyck, C.; Groenewegen, P.

    2015-01-01

    This paper explores the role of social identity threat in risk discourse in an infrastructure project, and the consequences risk discourse has for cooperation between stakeholders. We show that risks posed a threat to the identity of the project team, resulting in a discourse focused on attributing

  13. Risk Assessment of Engineering Project Financing Based on PPP Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ma Qiuli

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available At present, the project financing channel is single, and the urban facilities are in short supply, and the risk assessment and prevention mechanism of financing should be further improved to reduce the risk of project financing. In view of this, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of project financing risk which combined the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and analytic hierarchy process is established. The scientificalness and effectiveness of the model are verified by the example of the world port project in Luohe city, and it provides basis and reference for engineering project financing based on PPP mode.

  14. Advanced Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Demonstration Project Plan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coleman, Justin [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2014-09-01

    Idaho National Laboratories (INL) has an ongoing research and development (R&D) project to remove excess conservatism from seismic probabilistic risk assessments (SPRA) calculations. These risk calculations should focus on providing best estimate results, and associated insights, for evaluation and decision-making. This report presents a plan for improving our current traditional SPRA process using a seismic event recorded at a nuclear power plant site, with known outcomes, to improve the decision making process. SPRAs are intended to provide best estimates of the various combinations of structural and equipment failures that can lead to a seismic induced core damage event. However, in general this approach has been conservative, and potentially masks other important events (for instance, it was not the seismic motions that caused the Fukushima core melt events, but the tsunami ingress into the facility).

  15. Financing offshore projects: The banker's approach to risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beldam, R.A.

    1994-01-01

    The author has attempted to consider why companies chose to share risks with banks and looked in particular at the unique risk sharing aspect of project financing and how this may be reflected in the loan documentation. He also has considered the current market place and examined some trends for the future. The future challenge in the North Sea is going to be to use existing and new technology to reduce capital and operating costs, balanced with optimal recovery and safety. From a bank perspective, this type of work is extremely satisfying, if challenging, and the author has no doubt banks will continue to play their part in the future of offshore development wherever it occurs around the world

  16. Project management with dynamic scheduling baseline scheduling, risk analysis and project control

    CERN Document Server

    Vanhoucke, Mario

    2013-01-01

    The topic of this book is known as dynamic scheduling, and is used to refer to three dimensions of project management and scheduling: the construction of a baseline schedule and the analysis of a project schedule's risk as preparation of the project control phase during project progress. This dynamic scheduling point of view implicitly assumes that the usability of a project's baseline schedule is rather limited and only acts as a point of reference in the project life cycle.

  17. Project management best practices: forging win-win partnerships and mitigating power project risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trowsdale, R.

    2006-01-01

    This paper discusses aspects of project management to mitigate power project risk. end-to-end project development involves development phase, permitting phase, implementation phase, and operational phase. Each phase involves a number of different elements. In renewable energy project good management requires maintaining project discipline and schedule throughout all phases. Project success requires commercial competitiveness, fuel availability, power sales contracts, stake holder support, permitting, effective execution, construction and good technical performance

  18. TECHNICAL RISK RATING OF DOE ENVIRONMENTAL PROJECTS - 9153

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cercy, M.; Fayfich, Ronald; Schneider, Steven P.

    2008-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Environmental Management (DOE-EM) was established to achieve the safe and compliant disposition of legacy wastes and facilities from defense nuclear applications. The scope of work is diverse, with projects ranging from single acquisitions to collections of projects and operations that span several decades and costs from hundreds of millions to billions US$. The need to be able to manage and understand the technical risks from the project to senior management level has been recognized as an enabler to successfully completing the mission. In 2008, DOE-EM developed the Technical Risk Rating as a new method to assist in managing technical risk based on specific criteria. The Technical Risk Rating, and the criteria used to determine the rating, provides a mechanism to foster open, meaningful communication between the Federal Project Directors and DOE-EM management concerning project technical risks. Four indicators (technical maturity, risk urgency, handling difficulty and resolution path) are used to focus attention on the issues and key aspects related to the risks. Pressing risk issues are brought to the forefront, keeping DOE-EM management informed and engaged such that they fully understand risk impact. Use of the Technical Risk Rating and criteria during reviews provides the Federal Project Directors the opportunity to openly discuss the most significant risks and assists in the management of technical risks across the portfolio of DOE-EM projects. Technical Risk Ratings can be applied to all projects in government and private industry. This paper will present the methodology and criteria for Technical Risk Ratings, and provide specific examples from DOE-EM projects

  19. Project risk management: A review of an institutional project life cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wanjiru Gachie

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available This article is a desktop analysis of project risk management involving a project management institutional restructuring. The pragmatic nature of this research allows for the literature review and the document analysis to be integrated and presented as both a descriptive and analytical research. The analysis demonstrates that the project committee did not proactively manage project risk. The restructuring was a change management project, entailing the implementation of many organisational changes, such as restructuring, lay-off of some part of the administrative workforce, adoption of new technology, provision of new approaches to well-established procedures, and implementation of new performance initiative, the process which should have been managed with an effective integrated risk strategy and plan. Analysis of the restructuring project risk management exhibits little evidence of a systematic (computer based or manual record that should have provided policies, procedures, and structures for managing risk. The article concludes that the restructuring risk process was inadequate and it could not have ensured a successful project. An analysis of the restructuring project risk monitoring and control exhibits a reactive rather than proactive application of risk management procedures. The analysis further indicates that the committee failed to make use of the various project risk management processes, standards, and guidelines. Based on the conclusions, the article recommends that project risk planning, strategy, control, and monitoring should be put in place for future institutional projects. The project management team should also put in place procedures for primary stakeholders engagements, identify and address their nature of interest and power in future risk management projects

  20. Analysis of interactions among barriers in project risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dandage, Rahul V.; Mantha, Shankar S.; Rane, Santosh B.; Bhoola, Vanita

    2018-03-01

    In the context of the scope, time, cost, and quality constraints, failure is not uncommon in project management. While small projects have 70% chances of success, large projects virtually have no chance of meeting the quadruple constraints. While there is no dearth of research on project risk management, the manifestation of barriers to project risk management is a less dwelt topic. The success of project management is oftentimes based on the understanding of barriers to effective risk management, application of appropriate risk management methodology, proactive leadership to avoid barriers, workers' attitude, adequate resources, organizational culture, and involvement of top management. This paper represents various risk categories and barriers to risk management in domestic and international projects through literature survey and feedback from project professionals. After analysing the various modelling methods used in project risk management literature, interpretive structural modelling (ISM) and MICMAC analysis have been used to analyse interactions among the barriers and prioritize them. The analysis indicates that lack of top management support, lack of formal training, and lack of addressing cultural differences are the high priority barriers, among many others.

  1. Private Finance Initiative (PFI for Road Projects in UK: Current Practice with a Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rifat Akbiyikli

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available The long-term sustainable provision of new and high quality maintained road stock is vitally important, especially in times of economic constraint such as Europe is currently experiencing. The Private Finance Initiative (PFI is one method of financing such large-scale, capital intensive projects. An important aspect of this form of financing projects is that the risks are borne not only by the sponsors but are shared by different types of investors such as equity holders, debt providers, and quasi-equity investors. Consequently, a comprehensive and heuristic risk management process is essential for the success of the project. The proposition made within this paper is that the PFI mechanism provides a Value-for-Money and effective mechanism to achieve this. The structure of this PFI finance and investment on a particular road project therefore enables all project stakeholders to take a long-term perspective. This long-term perspective is reflected in the mechanism of a case study of UK – Class A trunk roads which are examined in detail. This paper presents a novel solution to a modern dilemma.

  2. The Risks of Investments in Transport Infrastructure Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Pokorná

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Investment decisions should not be taken without an in-depth analysis of the risks. This is an important stage in project preparation and should be performed simultaneously with the planning of the financial operations. Infrastructure development requires that project risks and responsibilities be assigned to the public or private entity that is best able to manage them. The risks and their financial impacts are usually not quantified equally by all parties. Each party views the given risks according to the guarantees provided. These guarantees are related to the form of participation in the project.

  3. The use of intelligent systems for risk management in software projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oksana A. Gushchina

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The article identifies the main risks of a software project, examines the use of different types of intelligent systems in the risk management process for software projects, discusses the basic methods used for process estimation and forecasting in the field of software engineering, identifies currently used empty expert systems, software systems for analysis and risk management of software projects. Materials and Methods: The author describes the peculiarities of risk management in the field of software engineering with involvement of intelligent systems. The intelligent techniques allow solving the control task with expert precision without the involvement of human experts. Results: The result of this work: – identification of the key risks of a software project (tax, legal, financial and commercial risks, IT risks, personnel risks, risks related to competitors, suppliers, marketing and demand and market; – investigation of the current, applied to risk management of software system projects, artificial intelligence, particularly expert systems and software tools for evaluation of the process results; – identification of the most popular empty expert systems (Clips, G2 and Leonardo and software products of the analysis of large databases (Orange, Weka, Rattle GUI, Apache Mahout, SCaViS, RapidMiner, Databionic ESOM Tools, ELKI, KNIME, Pandas and UIMA; – consideration of the cluster, correlation, regression, factor and dispersion analysis methods for the estimation and prediction of the processes of software engineering. Discussion and Conclusions: The results show the feasibility of the application of various intelligent systems in the risk management process. The analysis of methods of evaluating risks and the tendency of their application in the modern systems of intellectual analysis can serve as a start point for creating a unified system of risk management for software projects of medium and high complexity with a

  4. ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC RISK IN EUROPEAN INVESTMENT PROJECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margareta Stela FLORESCU

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Risk is a reality of the economic environment, with consequences which cannot always be foreseen or anticipated. Risk management becomes more stringent as potential exo/endogenous vulnerability factors are rapidly increasing. Identifying risk areas, structuring risk factors and defining their probability, optimal management of resources in order to reduce risk factors, creating alternatives for each high-probability risk factor are part of project risk management. Risk is quantified through probability and incidence and is assessed using quantitative and qualitative methods.

  5. ESTIMATING RISK TO CALIFORNIA ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FROM PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sathaye, Jayant; Dale, Larry; Larsen, Peter; Fitts, Gary; Koy, Kevin; Lewis, Sarah; Lucena, Andre

    2011-06-22

    This report outlines the results of a study of the impact of climate change on the energy infrastructure of California and the San Francisco Bay region, including impacts on power plant generation; transmission line and substation capacity during heat spells; wildfires near transmission lines; sea level encroachment upon power plants, substations, and natural gas facilities; and peak electrical demand. Some end-of-century impacts were projected:Expected warming will decrease gas-fired generator efficiency. The maximum statewide coincident loss is projected at 10.3 gigawatts (with current power plant infrastructure and population), an increase of 6.2 percent over current temperature-induced losses. By the end of the century, electricity demand for almost all summer days is expected to exceed the current ninetieth percentile per-capita peak load. As much as 21 percent growth is expected in ninetieth percentile peak demand (per-capita, exclusive of population growth). When generator losses are included in the demand, the ninetieth percentile peaks may increase up to 25 percent. As the climate warms, California's peak supply capacity will need to grow faster than the population.Substation capacity is projected to decrease an average of 2.7 percent. A 5C (9F) air temperature increase (the average increase predicted for hot days in August) will diminish the capacity of a fully-loaded transmission line by an average of 7.5 percent.The potential exposure of transmission lines to wildfire is expected to increase with time. We have identified some lines whose probability of exposure to fire are expected to increase by as much as 40 percent. Up to 25 coastal power plants and 86 substations are at risk of flooding (or partial flooding) due to sea level rise.

  6. Managing complex, high risk projects a guide to basic and advanced project management

    CERN Document Server

    Marle, Franck

    2016-01-01

    Maximizing reader insights into project management and handling complexity-driven risks, this book explores propagation effects, non-linear consequences, loops, and the emergence of positive properties that may occur over the course of a project. This book presents an introduction to project management and analysis of traditional project management approaches and their limits regarding complexity. It also includes overviews of recent research works about project complexity modelling and management as well as project complexity-driven issues. Moreover, the authors propose their own new approaches, new methodologies and new tools which may be used by project managers and/or researchers and/or students in the management of their projects. These new elements include project complexity definitions and frameworks, multi-criteria approaches for project complexity measurement, advanced methodologies for project management (propagation studies to anticipate potential behaviour of the project, and clustering approaches...

  7. Instantaneous Project Controls: Current Status, State of the Art, Benefits, and Strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbaszadegan, Amin

    2016-01-01

    Despite advancements in construction and construction-related technology, capital project performance deviations, typically overruns, remain endemic within the capital projects industry. Currently, management is generally unaware of the current status of their projects, and thus monitoring and control of projects are not achieved effectively. In…

  8. RIMAP demonstration project. Pat. 1: Risk based life management of piping system in power plant Heilbronn

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bareiss, J.; Puck, P.; Matschecko, B.; Jovanovic, A.; Balos, D.; Perunicic

    2003-01-01

    In the framework of EU project RIMAP [1] a new European Guideline for optimized risk based maintenance and inspection planning of industrial plants (RBLM - Risk Based Life Management) is being developed. The RIMAP project consists of the three clustered projects: development (RTD), demonstration (DEMO) and thematic network (TN). Current work and future, planned work in RIMAP demonstration project on applications of the RIMAP methodology in power plants are presented briefly in the first part of the paper. Also presented in the paper are the results of a preliminary analysis of piping system in power plant Heilbronn using the concept of risk-based monitoring as part of overall concept of risk-based life management. Shortly the following issues are discussed in the paper: identification of critical components, application of a multilevel risk analysis (..from ''screening'' to ''detailed analysis''), determination of PoF - Probability of Failure, determination of COF - Consequence of Failure and optimation of inspection and maintenance plan. (orig.)

  9. Identification of risk factors affecting construction of projects: The case of emerging economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chipo Mellania Maseko

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Controlling project risks has become a daunting task in construction and this can be attributed to issues such as the nature of modern projects. The challenge is that risk appears unannounced at any project phase for various reasons and thereby affecting the performance and the success of unprepared projects. The current studies that explored risk matters include Pehlivan and Öztemir (2015, Katre, and Ghaitidak (2016 amongst others. However, there is absence of unanimity from these studies on risk factors in construction. Thus, this article was instigated in order to identify and classify risk factors that affect the chances of project success. The research methodology selected for this article comprised of peer-reviewed articles between the periods of 2007 to 2017. This approach involved a comprehensive scrutiny into scholarly articles to comprehend risks in construction projects. Following a conceptual analysis, eighty factors were identified and classified under the following; technical, construction, financial, socio-political, physical, organisational, and environmental and other risks. From these categories, political instability was, found to be the most influential risk factor in construction projects and this factor was classified within the socio-political category and this category has total of 11 factors. Finding suggests the need for further empirical study.

  10. Incorporating the Technology Roadmap Uncertainties into the Project Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bonnema, B.E.

    2002-01-01

    This paper describes two methods, Technology Roadmapping and Project Risk Assessment, which were used to identify and manage the technical risks relating to the treatment of sodium bearing waste at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory. The waste treatment technology under consideration was Direct Vitrification. The primary objective of the Technology Roadmap is to identify technical data uncertainties for the technologies involved and to prioritize the testing or development studies to fill the data gaps. Similarly, project management's objective for a multi-million dollar construction project includes managing all the key risks in accordance to DOE O 413.3 - ''Program and Project Management for the Acquisition of Capital Assets.'' In the early stages, the Project Risk Assessment is based upon a qualitative analysis for each risk's probability and consequence. In order to clearly prioritize the work to resolve the technical issues identified in the Technology Roadmap, the issues must be cross- referenced to the project's Risk Assessment. This will enable the project to get the best value for the cost to mitigate the risks

  11. Audit Risk Assessment in the Light of Current European Regulations

    OpenAIRE

    Ciprian-Costel Munteanu

    2015-01-01

    Recent European reforms on audit regulations have been motivated by efforts to increase audit quality, functioning and performance. We believe the adoption of Directive 2014/56 and Regulation 537/2014 strengthened the role of independent audit and risk committees, which will positively contribute towards audit quality. This paper aims to critically assess the status quo of audit risk assessment in current European standards and regulations, by conducting a theoretical analysis of different as...

  12. Geography of current and future global mammal extinction risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana D Davidson

    Full Text Available Identifying which species are at greatest risk, what makes them vulnerable, and where they are distributed are central goals for conservation science. While knowledge of which factors influence extinction risk is increasingly available for some taxonomic groups, a deeper understanding of extinction correlates and the geography of risk remains lacking. Here, we develop a predictive random forest model using both geospatial and mammalian species' trait data to uncover the statistical and geographic distributions of extinction correlates. We also explore how this geography of risk may change under a rapidly warming climate. We found distinctive macroecological relationships between species-level risk and extinction correlates, including the intrinsic biological traits of geographic range size, body size and taxonomy, and extrinsic geographic settings such as seasonality, habitat type, land use and human population density. Each extinction correlate exhibited ranges of values that were especially associated with risk, and the importance of different risk factors was not geographically uniform across the globe. We also found that about 10% of mammals not currently recognized as at-risk have biological traits and occur in environments that predispose them towards extinction. Southeast Asia had the most actually and potentially threatened species, underscoring the urgent need for conservation in this region. Additionally, nearly 40% of currently threatened species were predicted to experience rapid climate change at 0.5 km/year or more. Biological and environmental correlates of mammalian extinction risk exhibit distinct statistical and geographic distributions. These results provide insight into species-level patterns and processes underlying geographic variation in extinction risk. They also offer guidance for future conservation research focused on specific geographic regions, or evaluating the degree to which species-level patterns mirror spatial

  13. Geography of current and future global mammal extinction risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidson, Ana D; Shoemaker, Kevin T; Weinstein, Ben; Costa, Gabriel C; Brooks, Thomas M; Ceballos, Gerardo; Radeloff, Volker C; Rondinini, Carlo; Graham, Catherine H

    2017-01-01

    Identifying which species are at greatest risk, what makes them vulnerable, and where they are distributed are central goals for conservation science. While knowledge of which factors influence extinction risk is increasingly available for some taxonomic groups, a deeper understanding of extinction correlates and the geography of risk remains lacking. Here, we develop a predictive random forest model using both geospatial and mammalian species' trait data to uncover the statistical and geographic distributions of extinction correlates. We also explore how this geography of risk may change under a rapidly warming climate. We found distinctive macroecological relationships between species-level risk and extinction correlates, including the intrinsic biological traits of geographic range size, body size and taxonomy, and extrinsic geographic settings such as seasonality, habitat type, land use and human population density. Each extinction correlate exhibited ranges of values that were especially associated with risk, and the importance of different risk factors was not geographically uniform across the globe. We also found that about 10% of mammals not currently recognized as at-risk have biological traits and occur in environments that predispose them towards extinction. Southeast Asia had the most actually and potentially threatened species, underscoring the urgent need for conservation in this region. Additionally, nearly 40% of currently threatened species were predicted to experience rapid climate change at 0.5 km/year or more. Biological and environmental correlates of mammalian extinction risk exhibit distinct statistical and geographic distributions. These results provide insight into species-level patterns and processes underlying geographic variation in extinction risk. They also offer guidance for future conservation research focused on specific geographic regions, or evaluating the degree to which species-level patterns mirror spatial variation in the

  14. Health risk assessment for a MWC ash utilization demonstration project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roffman, H.K.

    1992-01-01

    A Health Risk Assessment (HRA) was conducted for the proposed joint Hennepin County/Municipal Services Corporation (MSC) MSW Ash Utilization Demonstration Project, in which combined HERC ash was shipped to the MSC Pilot Plan near Atlanta, Georgia and used in the production of a synthetic aggregate. The synthetic aggregate, or TAP, will serve as a partial replacement for natural aggregates in a section of bituminous pavement that is proposed to be constructed on Pioneer Trail in the City of Corcoran, Minnesota. In this paper, the assessment compares the following three scenarios: a section of roadway paved using the MSC synthetic aggregate product (TAP) as a replacement for 30 percent of the natural aggregates used in bituminous pavement; a section of regular bituminous (asphalt) pavement; and a section of unpaved road currently in place at the site

  15. From field studies to risk management: the Sensib project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mercat-Rommens, C.; Renaud, P.

    2004-01-01

    The consequences for the man and the environment of the discharges of nuclear facilities depend on the importance and the nature of the discharges, but also on the environment which receives them. Thus, the impact of a pollution, which is expressed in term of toxicity, risk or economic consequences, varies according to the characteristics of the environment and the use of this environment by the man. The radioecological sensitivity can be defined as the response of the environment to a radioactive pollution. This response is expressed through various indicators: the activity of a radionuclide at a precise moment, a stock of radionuclide in a given environmental compartment or a flux of radionuclide... For a determined discharge, the higher is the response, the more sensitive is the environment. If all the ecosystems appear sensitive, their sensitivity does not concern the same criteria and it is currently difficult to compare these criteria between them; is it more hazardous to have a stock of radioactivity present in a natural space or to have an important but time-limited concentration of radionuclides in a river used for irrigation? The idea of the SENSIB project is to create a standardized tool which makes it possible to represent and to compare with the same scale the sensitivity of various ecosystems. The sensitivity indexes, which will be developed during the project, aim to represent the intensity of the environmental response. These indicators, which are the result of the transfer of the radionuclides in the environment, depend on various intrinsic parameters of the ecosystems (climate, soil, agricultural practises...). The SENSIB project, based on results of field studies conducted by IRSN, aims to develop both a methodology to calculate sensitivity indexes and a radioecological sensitivity scale usable for risk management. (author)

  16. Risk Management on the National Compact Stellarator Project (NCSX)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simmons, Robert T.; Heitzenroeder, Philip J.; Reiersen, Wayne T.; Neilson, George H.; Strykowsky, Ronald L.; Rej, Donald; Gruber, Christopher O.

    2009-01-01

    In its simplest form, risk management is a continuous assessment from project start to completion that identifies what can impact your project (i.e., what the risks are)., which of these risks are important, and identification and implementation of strategies to deal with these risks (both threats and opportunities). The National Compact Stellerator Experiment (NCSX) Project was a 'first-of-a-kind' fusion experiment that was technically very challenging, primarily resulting from the complex component geometries and tight tolerances. Initial risk quantification approaches proved inadequate and contributed to the escalation of costs as the design evolved and construction started. After the Project was well into construction, a new risk management plan was adopted. This plan was based on successful Department of Energy (DOE) and industrial risk management precepts. This paper will address the importance of effective risk management processes and lessons learned. It is of note that a steady reduction of risk was observed in the last six months of the project

  17. The impact of the human genome project on risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Katarzyna Doerffer; Paul Unrau.

    1996-01-01

    The radiation protection approach to risk assessment assumes that cancer induction following radiation exposure is purely random. Present risk assessment methods derive risk from cancer incidence frequencies in exposed populations and associate disease outcomes totally with the level of exposure to ionizing red aeon. Exposure defines a risk factor that affects the probability of the disease outcome. But cancer risk can be affected by other risk factors such as underlying genetic factors (predisposition) of the exposed organism. These genetic risk factors are now becoming available for incorporation into ionizing radiation risk assessment Progress in the Human Genome Project (HOP) will lead to direct assays to measure the effects of genetic risk determinants in disease outcomes. When all genetic risk determinants are known and incorporated into risk assessment it will be possible to reevaluate the role of ionizing radiation in the causation of cancer. (author)

  18. Current issues and perspectives in food safety and risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eisenbrand, G

    2015-12-01

    In this review, current issues and opportunities in food safety assessment are discussed. Food safety is considered an essential element inherent in global food security. Hazard characterization is pivotal within the continuum of risk assessment, but it may be conceived only within a very limited frame as a true alternative to risk assessment. Elucidation of the mode of action underlying a given hazard is vital to create a plausible basis for human toxicology evaluation. Risk assessment, to convey meaningful risk communication, must be based on appropriate and reliable consideration of both exposure and mode of action. New perspectives, provided by monitoring human exogenous and endogenous exposure biomarkers, are considered of great promise to support classical risk extrapolation from animal toxicology. © The Author(s) 2015.

  19. Current issues in nuclear power projects decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yanev, Y.; Rogner, H.

    2011-01-01

    Concluding Comments: Firm government commitment and support - imminent; New financing approaches/models are emerging, repackaging existing methods and combination of project finance/co-operative mode; Global financial crisis will make financing for investors very challenging, especially for large scale infrastructure projects like NNP –financial regulators to impose tougher rules (Basel III, UK bank levy, US Financial Regulatory Bill, etc; Pure project finance is still challenging for nuclear projects - the availability of finance for new NPPs will depend on the initial government support. This presentation presents a “free market” view on investment in nuclear power projects; If the public sector (governments) wishes to invest in nuclear power as part of its socioeconomic development priorities, finance is not a real obstacle; It becomes an issue in the presence of other equally important development needs and private sector participation is sought

  20. Risk Management Improvement of Engineering Projects in Woodworking Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simona Bartkutė

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Risk is a complex phenomenon that has physical, monetary, cultural and social dimensions. Every company wants tosave money, time, increase quality, optimise manufacturing, but each factor may involve different risks with different influenceto company, its reputation. The aim of the research is to find better risk management improvement decisions, using techniquesthat could help to reduce risk impact in wood-based nonstandard production with shorter project time, smoother design process,lower costs, better project coordination, increased ability to manage problems, technical solutions.

  1. Comparison of additive (absolute) risk projection models and multiplicative (relative) risk projection models in estimating radiation-induced lifetime cancer risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kai, Michiaki; Kusama, Tomoko

    1990-01-01

    Lifetime cancer risk estimates depend on risk projection models. While the increasing lengths of follow-up observation periods of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki bring about changes in cancer risk estimates, the validity of the two risk projection models, the additive risk projection model (AR) and multiplicative risk projection model (MR), comes into question. This paper compares the lifetime risk or loss of life-expectancy between the two projection models on the basis of BEIR-III report or recently published RERF report. With Japanese cancer statistics the estimates of MR were greater than those of AR, but a reversal of these results was seen when the cancer hazard function for India was used. When we investigated the validity of the two projection models using epidemiological human data and animal data, the results suggested that MR was superior to AR with respect to temporal change, but there was little evidence to support its validity. (author)

  2. Risk Management and Uncertainty in Large Complex Public Projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Neerup Themsen, Tim; Harty, Chris; Tryggestad, Kjell

    Governmental actors worldwide are promoting risk management as a rational approach to man-age uncertainty and improve the abilities to deliver large complex projects according to budget, time plans, and pre-set project specifications: But what do we know about the effects of risk management...... on the abilities to meet such objectives? Using Callon’s (1998) twin notions of framing and overflowing we examine the implementation of risk management within the Dan-ish public sector and the effects this generated for the management of two large complex pro-jects. We show how the rational framing of risk...... management have generated unexpected costly outcomes such as: the undermining of the longer-term value and societal relevance of the built asset, the negligence of the wider range of uncertainties emerging during project processes, and constraining forms of knowledge. We also show how expert accountants play...

  3. ERP project implementation and risk management of nuclear power enterprise

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Fei

    2008-01-01

    According to the characteristic and development trend of nuclear power enterprise informatization, combined with the general ERP implementation experience, the method is proposed to ensure the successful implementation and risk management of ERP project in nuclear power enterprise. (authors)

  4. Economic optimisation of flood risk management projects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tsimopoulou, V.

    2015-01-01

    The Netherlands has developed a flood risk management policy based on an economic rationale. After the flood disaster of 1953, when a large area of the south-western part of the country was flooded and more than 1800 people lost their lives, the so-called Delta Committee was installed, whose main

  5. Climate Change Risk Management: CRE Adaptation Projects and the Risk Management Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document describes National Estuary Program partner projects that demonstrate how risk management can be successfully applied to address environmental challenges in our country’s coastal areas.

  6. Multiobjective genetic algorithm approaches to project scheduling under risk

    OpenAIRE

    Kılıç, Murat; Kilic, Murat

    2003-01-01

    In this thesis, project scheduling under risk is chosen as the topic of research. Project scheduling under risk is defined as a biobjective decision problem and is formulated as a 0-1 integer mathematical programming model. In this biobjective formulation, one of the objectives is taken as the expected makespan minimization and the other is taken as the expected cost minimization. As the solution approach to this biobjective formulation genetic algorithm (GA) is chosen. After carefully invest...

  7. Development of Risk Uncertainty Factors from Historical NASA Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amer, Tahani R.

    2011-01-01

    NASA is a good investment of federal funds and strives to provide the best value to the nation. NASA has consistently budgeted to unrealistic cost estimates, which are evident in the cost growth in many of its programs. In this investigation, NASA has been using available uncertainty factors from the Aerospace Corporation, Air Force, and Booz Allen Hamilton to develop projects risk posture. NASA has no insight into the developmental of these factors and, as demonstrated here, this can lead to unrealistic risks in many NASA Programs and projects (P/p). The primary contribution of this project is the development of NASA missions uncertainty factors, from actual historical NASA projects, to aid cost-estimating as well as for independent reviews which provide NASA senior management with information and analysis to determine the appropriate decision regarding P/p. In general terms, this research project advances programmatic analysis for NASA projects.

  8. Handbook for Volcanic Risk Management: an outcome from MIAVITA project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bignami, Christian; Bosi, Vittorio; Costantini, Licia; Cristiani, Chiara; Lavigne, Franck; Thierry, Pierre

    2013-04-01

    Volcanic eruptions are one of the most impressive, violent and dramatic agents of change on Earth, threatening hundreds of millions of people. The crises management implies a strong cooperation among the main stakeholders (e.g., civil protection authorities, scientific institutions, operational forces). Considering the great amount of different actions required during the whole volcanic cycle (e.g., preparedness, unrest phase, crisis management, resilience), the role and responsibilities of stakeholders should be clarified in advance. In particular, the role of scientists, fundamental in all the phases, should be well discussed with the other stakeholders and well defined, for every country. This will allow a better management and response, and contribute to avoid misunderstanding. The new "Handbook for Volcanic Risk Management" issued by the MIAVITA European project, funded by the European Commission (Mitigate and Assess risk from Volcanic Impact on Terrain and human Activities) gives a contribution to that. Indeed, this handbook aims at synthesizing the acquired knowledge on volcanic risk management, such as prevention, preparedness, mitigation, intervention, crisis management and resilience, in a practical and useful way. It promotes the creation of an ideal bridge between different actors involved in risk management, improving and facilitating interactions among authorities and scientists. This work is based on current scientific research and the shared experience of the different MIAVITA project partners as well as on international good practices previously recommended. The handbook is composed of six sections. The first one briefly explains the global volcanic context and the principles of corresponding risk management. Section 2 contains a description of volcanic phenomena, damage and understanding size and effects that can be expected. Sections 3, 4 and 5 meet preparation and prevention issues and describe actions to be undertaken during the response phase

  9. Risk assessment for construction projects of transport infrastructure objects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Titarenko, Boris

    2017-10-01

    The paper analyzes and compares different methods of risk assessment for construction projects of transport objects. The management of such type of projects demands application of special probabilistic methods due to large level of uncertainty of their implementation. Risk management in the projects requires the use of probabilistic and statistical methods. The aim of the work is to develop a methodology for using traditional methods in combination with robust methods that allow obtaining reliable risk assessments in projects. The robust approach is based on the principle of maximum likelihood and in assessing the risk allows the researcher to obtain reliable results in situations of great uncertainty. The application of robust procedures allows to carry out a quantitative assessment of the main risk indicators of projects when solving the tasks of managing innovation-investment projects. Calculation of damage from the onset of a risky event is possible by any competent specialist. And an assessment of the probability of occurrence of a risky event requires the involvement of special probabilistic methods based on the proposed robust approaches. Practice shows the effectiveness and reliability of results. The methodology developed in the article can be used to create information technologies and their application in automated control systems for complex projects.

  10. Risk analysis for renewable energy projects due to constraints arising

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prostean, G.; Vasar, C.; Prostean, O.; Vartosu, A.

    2016-02-01

    Starting from the target of the European Union (EU) to use renewable energy in the area that aims a binding target of 20% renewable energy in final energy consumption by 2020, this article illustrates the identification of risks for implementation of wind energy projects in Romania, which could lead to complex technical implications, social and administrative. In specific projects analyzed in this paper were identified critical bottlenecks in the future wind power supply chain and reasonable time periods that may arise. Renewable energy technologies have to face a number of constraints that delayed scaling-up their production process, their transport process, the equipment reliability, etc. so implementing these types of projects requiring complex specialized team, the coordination of which also involve specific risks. The research team applied an analytical risk approach to identify major risks encountered within a wind farm project developed in Romania in isolated regions with different particularities, configured for different geographical areas (hill and mountain locations in Romania). Identification of major risks was based on the conceptual model set up for the entire project implementation process. Throughout this conceptual model there were identified specific constraints of such process. Integration risks were examined by an empirical study based on the method HAZOP (Hazard and Operability). The discussion describes the analysis of our results implementation context of renewable energy projects in Romania and creates a framework for assessing energy supply to any entity from renewable sources.

  11. Planning risk communication for UMTRA project groundwater restoration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hundertmark, Charles [Jacobs Engineering Group Inc. and University of Phoenix (United States); Hoopes, Jack [Jacobs Engineering Group Inc. (United States); Flowers, Len [Roy F. Weston Company (United States); Jackson, David G [U.S. Department of Energy (United States)

    1992-07-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project is entering a new phase in which groundwater contamination will become a growing focus as surface remedial action draws toward completion. Planning for risk communication associated with the groundwater project will be a major factor in the successful initiation of the program. (author)

  12. Relationships Between Risks in an IT Project Development Portfolio

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kusters, R.J.; Postema, J.J.; Trienekens, J.J.M.; Lavazza, L.; Oberhauser, R.; Martin, A.; Hassine, J.; Gebhart, M.; Jäntti, M.

    2013-01-01

    More and more it is seen that IT (Information Technology) projects are managed as a whole as part of a IT project portfolio. As one of the arguments for doing so, risk management at the portfolio level was identified as one of the advantages that could benefit from this. This was based on the notion

  13. Project Scheduling Based on Risk of Gas Transmission Pipe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silvianita; Nurbaity, A.; Mulyadi, Y.; Suntoyo; Chamelia, D. M.

    2018-03-01

    The planning of a project has a time limit on which must be completed before or right at a predetermined time. Thus, in a project planning, it is necessary to have scheduling management that is useful for completing a project to achieve maximum results by considering the constraints that will exists. Scheduling management is undertaken to deal with uncertainties and negative impacts of time and cost in project completion. This paper explains about scheduling management in gas transmission pipeline project Gresik-Semarang to find out which scheduling plan is most effectively used in accordance with its risk value. Scheduling management in this paper is assissted by Microsoft Project software to find the critical path of existing project scheduling planning data. Critical path is the longest scheduling path with the fastest completion time. The result is found a critical path on project scheduling with completion time is 152 days. Furthermore, the calculation of risk is done by using House of Risk (HOR) method and it is found that the critical path has a share of 40.98 percent of all causes of the occurence of risk events that will be experienced.

  14. Planning risk communication for UMTRA project groundwater restoration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hundertmark, Charles; Hoopes, Jack; Flowers, Len; Jackson, David G.

    1992-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project is entering a new phase in which groundwater contamination will become a growing focus as surface remedial action draws toward completion. Planning for risk communication associated with the groundwater project will be a major factor in the successful initiation of the program. (author)

  15. Ecological models and pesticide risk assessment: current modeling practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmolke, Amelie; Thorbek, Pernille; Chapman, Peter; Grimm, Volker

    2010-04-01

    Ecological risk assessments of pesticides usually focus on risk at the level of individuals, and are carried out by comparing exposure and toxicological endpoints. However, in most cases the protection goal is populations rather than individuals. On the population level, effects of pesticides depend not only on exposure and toxicity, but also on factors such as life history characteristics, population structure, timing of application, presence of refuges in time and space, and landscape structure. Ecological models can integrate such factors and have the potential to become important tools for the prediction of population-level effects of exposure to pesticides, thus allowing extrapolations, for example, from laboratory to field. Indeed, a broad range of ecological models have been applied to chemical risk assessment in the scientific literature, but so far such models have only rarely been used to support regulatory risk assessments of pesticides. To better understand the reasons for this situation, the current modeling practice in this field was assessed in the present study. The scientific literature was searched for relevant models and assessed according to nine characteristics: model type, model complexity, toxicity measure, exposure pattern, other factors, taxonomic group, risk assessment endpoint, parameterization, and model evaluation. The present study found that, although most models were of a high scientific standard, many of them would need modification before they are suitable for regulatory risk assessments. The main shortcomings of currently available models in the context of regulatory pesticide risk assessments were identified. When ecological models are applied to regulatory risk assessments, we recommend reviewing these models according to the nine characteristics evaluated here. (c) 2010 SETAC.

  16. Effect of risk aversion on prioritizing conservation projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tulloch, Ayesha I T; Maloney, Richard F; Joseph, Liana N; Bennett, Joseph R; Di Fonzo, Martina M I; Probert, William J M; O'Connor, Shaun M; Densem, Jodie P; Possingham, Hugh P

    2015-04-01

    Conservation outcomes are uncertain. Agencies making decisions about what threat mitigation actions to take to save which species frequently face the dilemma of whether to invest in actions with high probability of success and guaranteed benefits or to choose projects with a greater risk of failure that might provide higher benefits if they succeed. The answer to this dilemma lies in the decision maker's aversion to risk--their unwillingness to accept uncertain outcomes. Little guidance exists on how risk preferences affect conservation investment priorities. Using a prioritization approach based on cost effectiveness, we compared 2 approaches: a conservative probability threshold approach that excludes investment in projects with a risk of management failure greater than a fixed level, and a variance-discounting heuristic used in economics that explicitly accounts for risk tolerance and the probabilities of management success and failure. We applied both approaches to prioritizing projects for 700 of New Zealand's threatened species across 8303 management actions. Both decision makers' risk tolerance and our choice of approach to dealing with risk preferences drove the prioritization solution (i.e., the species selected for management). Use of a probability threshold minimized uncertainty, but more expensive projects were selected than with variance discounting, which maximized expected benefits by selecting the management of species with higher extinction risk and higher conservation value. Explicitly incorporating risk preferences within the decision making process reduced the number of species expected to be safe from extinction because lower risk tolerance resulted in more species being excluded from management, but the approach allowed decision makers to choose a level of acceptable risk that fit with their ability to accommodate failure. We argue for transparency in risk tolerance and recommend that decision makers accept risk in an adaptive management

  17. ACSEPT. The current European project on actinide recycling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bourg, S.; Bouvet, S.; Caravaca, C.

    2011-01-01

    ACSEPT (Actinide reCycling by SEParation and Transmutation) is a European research project dedicated to the development of advanced separation processes for transuranium elements (TRU) in the P and T context. 34 partners from 12 European countries plus Japan and Australia contribute to this project for 130 men years over a period of four years (2008-2012). General objective is developing hydrometallurgical and pyrometallurgical actinide separation processes suitable for both heterogeneous and homogeneous recycling strategies. To make such a large project manageable, ACSEPT consists of four domains, DM1 (hydrometallurgy), DM2 (pyrometallurgy), DM3 (cross-cutting activities), and DM4 (training and education). DM1 and DM2 are sub-divided into work packages, covering fuel dissolution, core process and refabrication aspects. Both fundamental and process related issues are dealt with. (author)

  18. safety risk management based on fuzzy logic at underground projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farhad Taherkhani

    2017-11-01

    Conclusion: In the present article, a new model was developed to calculate the probability of occurrence of the event, which so far has not been addressed in other studies. Finally, effective measures can be taken to reduce the risk of a project by eliminating the high risk factors.

  19. Evaluation of Projected Agricultural Climate Risk over the Contiguous US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, X.; Troy, T. J.; Devineni, N.

    2017-12-01

    Food demands are rising due to an increasing population with changing food preferences, which places pressure on agricultural production. Additionally, climate extremes have recently highlighted the vulnerability of our agricultural system to climate variability. This study seeks to fill two important gaps in current knowledge: how does the widespread response of irrigated crops differ from rainfed and how can we best account for uncertainty in yield responses. We developed a stochastic approach to evaluate climate risk quantitatively to better understand the historical impacts of climate change and estimate the future impacts it may bring about to agricultural system. Our model consists of Bayesian regression, distribution fitting, and Monte Carlo simulation to simulate rainfed and irrigated crop yields at the US county level. The model was fit using historical data for 1970-2010 and was then applied over different climate regions in the contiguous US using the CMIP5 climate projections. The relative importance of many major growing season climate indices, such as consecutive dry days without rainfall or heavy precipitation, was evaluated to determine what climate indices play a role in affecting future crop yields. The statistical modeling framework also evaluated the impact of irrigation by using county-level irrigated and rainfed yields separately. Furthermore, the projected years with negative yield anomalies were specifically evaluated in terms of magnitude, trend and potential climate drivers. This framework provides estimates of the agricultural climate risk for the 21st century that account for the full uncertainty of climate occurrences, range of crop response, and spatial correlation in climate. The results of this study can contribute to decision making about crop choice and water use in an uncertain future climate.

  20. Research into specific risk assessment in project financing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivana Bestvina Bukvić

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available An assessment of investment justification in terms of risk enables the decision maker (investor to select, among available alternatives, the one with the most favourable correlation between the expected profit and assumed risk. At the micro level, the uncertainty of business success is extremely high in production activities, which is an additional incentive for taking a comprehensive approach to the issue of investment decision-making and the development of risk assessment techniques applicable in this particular segment of industry. Given the complexity of the manufacturing process, the length of the production cycle, market conditions, and entity-specific risks (which are difficult to measure, projects in manufacturing industry require a detailed and comprehensive assessment of specific risk factors and their cost-effectiveness. Ne - vertheless, since specific risks can be diversified, investment proposal assessments in practice usually do not cover their quantification and analysis. However, the majority of business entities do not have enough active projects in various industries to be able to fully diversify their business and thus minimize the level of specific risks. The impact of specific factors becomes one of the most important elements for business success. This paper analyses how far risk assessment methods regarding specific risks are used in practice. Furthermore, it analyses the significance of specific risks for total investment risk. This study gives new insi - ghts into the significance of specific risks to the overall investment assessment and the need for permanent development of traditionally used investment assessment models.

  1. The Contribution of Current Research and Development Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Townsend, H. E. R.

    1973-01-01

    Reviews recent projects on the education of immigrants within the framework of the six suggestions for research made by the Select Committee on Race Relations and Immigrations; e.g. the effects on children of various educational arrangements for immigrants; methods of teaching race relations in schools; and others. (Author/JM)

  2. The Strategic Risk Management at Different Stages of Innovation Project

    OpenAIRE

    Pysmak Viktoriia O.

    2017-01-01

    This article considers the theoretical principles of the strategic risk management at every stage of innovation project. Relevance of the selected area of research has been substantiated in view of the necessity to provide the theoretical and practical foundations for the strategic risk management of innovation activity. Principles of management of innovation at a contemporary enterprise have been allocated. Analysis of such concepts as «risk», «innovation», «strategic management» was carried...

  3. EC FP6 Siberia-focused Enviro-RISKS Project and its Outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baklanov, A. A.; Gordov, E. P.

    2009-04-01

    The FP6 Project "Man-induced Environmental Risks: Monitoring, Management and Remediation of Man-made Changes in Siberia" (Enviro-RISKS) strategic objective is to facilitate elaboration of solid scientific background and understanding of man-made associated environmental risks, their influence on all aspects of regional environment and optimal ways for it remediation by means of coordinated initiatives of a range of relevant RTD projects as well as to achieve their improved integration thus giving the projects additional synergy in current activities and potential for practical applications. List of Partners includes 3 leading European research organizations, 6 leading Russian research organizations (5 - located in Siberia) and 1 organization from Kazakhstan. Additionally several Russian and European research organizations joined to the Project as Associated Partners. Scientific background and foundation for the project performance is formed by a number of different levels RTD projects carried out by Partners and devoted to near all aspects of the theme. The set comprise coordinated/performed by partners EC funded thematic international projects, Russian national projects and other projects performed by NIS partners. Project outcomes include, in particular, development and support of the bilingual Enviro-RISKS web portal (http://risks.scert.ru/) as the major tool for disseminations of environmental information and project results; achieved level of development of Siberia Integrated Regional Study (SIRS, http://sirs.scert.ru/), which is the Siberia-focused NEESPI Environmental Mega-Project ongoing under the auspices of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The main Project outcome are Memorandum on the state of the art of environmental RTD activity in Siberia and Recommendations on future environmental RTD activity in Siberia elaborated by four Working Experts Groups working in most important for Siberia Thematic Focuses. Three Thematic Focuses

  4. WAYS TO IMPROVE RISK MANAGEMENT IN COMPLEX PROJECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emilia IORDACHE

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk is present in all human activities; it can be associated with health, security, economy or environment. The goal of risk management is to control, prevent or decrease potential damages. Technically speaking, risk management means all the activities coordinated so as to orient and monitor an organization from the risk perspective. Risk management helps formulate the most adequate decisions by taking account of uncertainties and their effects upon the accomplishment of proposed goals, and argues the need to lay down and implement coercive, preventive actions typical of the management of a company. The benefits of good risk management and also the consequences of bad management shall undoubtedly be felt by an organization’s board, employees, shareholders, customers as well as by all other entities concerned with organizational performance. Projects generally include a number of risks in common with those in business as well as certain typical ones. In complex projects, it is this very feature – complexity – which generates the need to implement risk management for the purpose to diminish, remove, and monitor the risks which can influence the development of a project.

  5. Audit Risk Assessment in the Light of Current European Regulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ciprian-Costel Munteanu

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Recent European reforms on audit regulations have been motivated by efforts to increase audit quality, functioning and performance. We believe the adoption of Directive 2014/56 and Regulation 537/2014 strengthened the role of independent audit and risk committees, which will positively contribute towards audit quality. This paper aims to critically assess the status quo of audit risk assessment in current European standards and regulations, by conducting a theoretical analysis of different aspects of audit risk. Our main objective is to stress the importance of detecting inherent and control risk, which lead to material misstatement at the assertion level. They need to be assessed so as to determine the nature, timing and extent of further audit procedures necessary to obtain sufficient appropriate audit evidence. These pieces of evidence enable the auditor to express an opinion on the financial statements at an acceptably low level of audit risk. Therefore, we point to the fact that researchers as well as practitioners and policymakers have to be careful when using audit tools and assessing risk levels, as their conclusions continuously shape the regulations.

  6. THE FINANCIAL TOOLS FOR COVER POLITICAL RISKS IN PROJECT FINANCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Naumenkova

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This article examines the risk-mitigation in public-private partnership. Today Ukraine is ranked as "CRT-5 country" and has high levels of economic and political risk. Political risk grows steadily because of financial and political instability in Ukraine. We conclude that investors continue to rank political risk as a key obstacle to long-term investing. The tools for cover many types of political risks such as war, terrorism, civil disturbance, breach of contract, export or operating license cancellation, currency inconvertibility and transfer restriction, change of laws and regulations etc. are described by authors. We focus on the advantages of World Bank Group Guarantee products. The guarantee instruments of the three WBG institutions for cover political risks under different circumstances are the most suitable for public-private partnership in Ukraine. In this article the political risk-mitigation with IBRD Partial Risk Guarantee put forward by authors for PPP projects in Ukraine.

  7. Small launchers (current and future projects in the world)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naumann, W. G.

    1993-01-01

    Small satellites need launching services using small launchers capable of injecting 100 to 1000 kg into a polar orbit at an altitude of 1000 km. Operational small launchers are reviewed as well as developing and planned ones. Launcher characteristics, constraints, performance, and status are detailed. Few technical problems are encountered, as most launcher projects call for existing components and well known technologies. Most of the difficulties have come from launch site availability and from financial considerations.

  8. Project transition to risk based corrective action

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Judge, J.M.; Cormier, S.L.

    1996-01-01

    Many states have adopted or are considering the adoption of the America Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) Standard E 1739, Standard for Risk Based Corrective Action (RBCA) Applied to Petroleum Release Sites. This standard is being adopted to regulate leaking underground storage tank (LUST) sites. The case studies of two LUST sites in Michigan will be presented to demonstrate the decision making process and limiting factors involved in transitioning sites to the RBCA program. Both of these case studies had been previously investigated and one was actively remediated. The first case study involves a private petroleum facility where soil and ground water have been impacted. Remediation involved a ground water pump and treat system. Subsequent monitoring during system operation indicated that analytical data were still above the Tier 1 RBSLs but below the Tier 2 SSTLs. The closure strategy that was developed was based on the compounds of concern that were below the SSTLs. A deed restriction was also developed for the site as an institutional control. The second LUST site exhibited BTEX concentrations in soil and ground water above the Tier 1 RBSLs. Due to the exceedence of the Tier 1 RBSLs, the second site required a Tier 2 assessment to develop SSTLs as remedial objectives and remove hot spots in the soil and treat the ground water to achieve closure. Again, a deed restriction was instituted along with a performance monitoring plan

  9. Revenue Risk Modelling and Assessment on BOT Highway Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novianti, T.; Setyawan, H. Y.

    2018-01-01

    The infrastructure project which is considered as a public-private partnership approach under BOT (Build-Operate-Transfer) arrangement, such as a highway, is risky. Therefore, assessment on risk factors is essential as the project have a concession period and is influenced by macroeconomic factors and consensus period. In this study, pre-construction risks of a highway were examined by using a Delphi method to create a space for offline expert discussions; a fault tree analysis to map intuition of experts and to create a model from the underlying risk events; a fuzzy logic to interpret the linguistic data of risk models. The loss of revenue for risk tariff, traffic volume, force majeure, and income were then measured. The results showed that the loss of revenue caused by the risk tariff was 10.5% of the normal total revenue. The loss of revenue caused by the risk of traffic volume was 21.0% of total revenue. The loss of revenue caused by the force majeure was 12.2% of the normal income. The loss of income caused by the non-revenue events was 6.9% of the normal revenue. It was also found that the volume of traffic was the major risk of a highway project because it related to customer preferences.

  10. Rapid Response Risk Assessment in New Project Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graber, Robert R.

    2010-01-01

    A capability for rapidly performing quantitative risk assessments has been developed by JSC Safety and Mission Assurance for use on project design trade studies early in the project life cycle, i.e., concept development through preliminary design phases. A risk assessment tool set has been developed consisting of interactive and integrated software modules that allow a user/project designer to assess the impact of alternative design or programmatic options on the probability of mission success or other risk metrics. The risk and design trade space includes interactive options for selecting parameters and/or metrics for numerous design characteristics including component reliability characteristics, functional redundancy levels, item or system technology readiness levels, and mission event characteristics. This capability is intended for use on any project or system development with a defined mission, and an example project will used for demonstration and descriptive purposes, e.g., landing a robot on the moon. The effects of various alternative design considerations and their impact of these decisions on mission success (or failure) can be measured in real time on a personal computer. This capability provides a high degree of efficiency for quickly providing information in NASA s evolving risk-based decision environment

  11. Project finance risk evaluation of the Electric power industry of Serbia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Makajic Nikolic, Dragana; Jednak, Sandra; Benkovic, Sladana; Poznanic, Vladimir

    2011-01-01

    From the aspect of the development of a country, the energy sector represents a domain of strategic interest. Generation and use of energy resources most often belongs to the public sector, and are most often under the influence of the government in most countries. This paper analyzes the risks that are characteristic to the business of the public enterprise, Electric Power Industry of Serbia (EPS). EPS has started its restructuring and is adjusting to changes and challenges imposed by the launched reforms in the energy sector. However, due to certain limitations, it is still not possible to implement its complete restructuring and modernization. The paper aims to point at the risks a potential strategic partner faces. The risks have been identified as commercial, financial and political, classification immanent for project finance, and their evaluation was done using Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA). Risk analysis was performed based on current conditions for two potential scenarios that predict different types of changes in the analyzed period. The results of the analysis show that the potential strategic partner should pay special attention to price risks, estimation, investments, project activity neglect, quasi-risks and debt collection. - Highlights: → Paper analyze all risks characteristic for business running of the public enterprise EPS. → Potential strategic partner faces with the commercial, financial and political risks. → Risk analysis was done using FMEA. → Results are indicating high risk of investing in EPS. → The highest risks are commercial risks, especially price risks.

  12. Current research projects on traffic conflicts technique studies.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hondel, M. van den & and Kraay, J.H.

    1979-01-01

    A review of current research concerning the development, evaluation and use of the traffic conflicts technique is presented. The 32 studies, selected from the IRRD data base, are listed alphabetically by names of countries and under countries by names of research organizations. The IRRD descriptions

  13. Pharmaceutical company perspectives on current safety risk communications in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urushihara, Hisashi; Kobashi, Gen; Masuda, Hideaki; Taneichi, Setsuko; Yamamoto, Michiko; Nakayama, Takeo; Kawakami, Koji; Matsuda, Tsutomu; Ohta, Kaori; Sugimori, Hiroki

    2014-01-01

    In 1987, a group infection of hepatitis in patients receiving a contaminated fibrinogen product was first reported to the Japanese regulatory agency. Eventually, this serious drug incident involved more than 10,000 cases of infection. In response, the Government of Japan established a responding inspection committee in 2008 to make recommendations for the restructuring of drug regulatory administration. The final report was issued in 2010. One agenda item of this restructuring was the improvement of drug-related safety risk communications. Our research group on drug safety risk communications, which is funded by the Government of Japan, surveyed pharmaceutical companies regarding their perspective on current risk communications. The survey was conducted using an anonymous questionnaire developed for this study which included the three operational domains of targets, contents, and measures of drug risk communication. Fifty-two of the 74 member companies of the Post-marketing Surveillance Subcommittee of the Japan Pharmaceutical Manufacturer's Association participated, and this response rate of more than 70% was considered sufficient to ensure the external validity of the survey results. Results showed that the most highly prioritized aspect of risk messaging was the strength of evidence, and that outcome evaluation of risk communication gained recognition. Further, while physicians and pharmacists were the most prioritized communication targets, pharmacovigilance departments devoted the most resources to regulators, at more than 30%. The Internet was recognized as a useful public source of risk information, whereas Drug Guides for Patients delivered on the web were considered under-recognized. Further discussion of these results with the aim of enhancing the restructuring of the Japanese drug regulatory administration system are warranted.

  14. Algorithm for evaluating the effectiveness of a high-rise development project based on current yield

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soboleva, Elena

    2018-03-01

    The article is aimed at the issues of operational evaluation of development project efficiency in high-rise construction under the current economic conditions in Russia. The author touches the following issues: problems of implementing development projects, the influence of the operational evaluation quality of high-rise construction projects on general efficiency, assessing the influence of the project's external environment on the effectiveness of project activities under crisis conditions and the quality of project management. The article proposes the algorithm and the methodological approach to the quality management of the developer project efficiency based on operational evaluation of the current yield efficiency. The methodology for calculating the current efficiency of a development project for high-rise construction has been updated.

  15. Air travel and radiation risks - review of current knowledge

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zeeb, H.; Blettner, M.

    2004-01-01

    Aircrew and passengers are exposed to cosmic radiation, in particular when travelling routes close to the poles and in high altitudes. The paper reviews current radiation measurement and estimation approaches as well as the actual level of cosmic radiation that personnel and travellers receive and summarizes the available epidemiological evidence on health effects of cosmic radiation. On average, German aircrew is exposed to les than 5 mSv per annum, and even frequent travellers only rarely reach values above 1 mSv/year. Cohort studies among aircrew have found very little evidence for an increased incidence or mortality of radiation-associated cancers. Only malignant melanoma rates have consistently found to be increased among male aircrew. Socioeconomic and reproductive aspects are likely to contribute to the slightly elevated breast cancer risk of female aircrew. Cytogenetic studies have not yielded consistent results. Based on these data overall risk increases for cancer among occupationally exposed aircrew appear unlikely. This also applies to air travellers who are usually exposed to much lower radiation levels. Occasional air travel during pregnancy does not pose a significant radiation risk, but further considerations apply in this situation. The currently available studies are limited with regard to methodological issues and case numbers so that a continuation of cohort studies in several European countries is being planned. (orig.) [de

  16. Current products and future plan of regulatory research for risk-informed regulation in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sung, Key Yong; Lee, Chang Ju; Kim, Woong Sik; Kim, Hho Jung

    2003-01-01

    The first phase of a regulatory research project for risk-informed regulation (RIR) and applications (RIA) was finished in March of 2002. Various results that could be useful for preparing Korean RIR system have been developed. One of the remarkable outputs is development of reactor safety goals and acceptance criteria for RIR and RIA in Korea. The Safety Goal has a 4-tier hierarchical structure and each tier has specified goals classified for their usage. Regulatory review guides for probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) including level-1, level-2 and low power and shutdown PSA have been updated by reflecting new information obtained from not only the overseas documents but also experience and insights from regulatory review in Korea. In addition, draft regulatory guides for risk-informed in-service inspection, in-service testing, importance ranking of motor-operated valves, and AOT/STI change of Technical Specifications have been developed for preparing ongoing and future licensing work. Risk-based inspection guides with inspection items selected from a viewpoint of risk importance have been suggested for Korean standard NPPs as well. In the second phase of a research project (April of 2002 to March of 2005), two regulatory research projects on RIR were initiated. One is a study on institutionalization of risk-informed and performance-based regulation. Main topics of this project are evaluation of benefit and characteristics of RIR, development of optimized Korean RIR model, impact analysis for the change of current regulation framework, and suggestion of RIR-related laws and rules. The other is focusing on the development in the areas of a regulatory audit PSA model and regulatory guides for risk monitoring, and application techniques of risk information to the significance determination of plant performance indicators and inspection findings. It is expected that a concrete scheme and detailed regulatory techniques for embodiment of RIR system in Korea will be

  17. Assessment of Transport Projects: Risk Analysis and Decision Support

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang

    2008-01-01

    functions. New research proved that specifically two impacts stood out in transport project assessment, namely, travel time savings and construction costs. The final concern of this study has been the fitting of distributions, e.g. by the use of data from major databases developed in which Optimism Bias...... choosing probability distributions and performing real term data fits. The perspective of this Ph.D. study presents newer and better understanding of assigning risks within assessment of transport projects....

  18. A Hybrid MCDM Technique for Risk Management in Construction Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kajal Chatterjee

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Multi-stakeholder based construction projects are subject to potential risk factors due to dynamic business environment and stakeholders’ lack of knowledge. When solving project management tasks, it is necessary to quantify the main risk indicators of the projects. Managing these requires suitable risk mitigation strategies to evaluate and analyse their severity. The existence of information asymmetry also causes difficulties with achieving Pareto efficiency. Hence, to ensure balanced satisfaction of all participants, risk evaluation of these projects can be considered as an important part of the multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM process. In real-life problems, evaluation of project risks is often uncertain and even incomplete, and the prevailing methodologies fail to handle such situations. To address the problem, this paper extends the analytical network process (ANP methodology in the D numbers domain to handle three types of ambiguous information’s, viz. complete, uncertain, and incomplete, and assesses the weight of risk criteria. The D numbers based approach overcomes the deficiencies of the exclusiveness hypothesis and completeness constraint of Dempster–Shafer (D–S theory. Here, preference ratings of the decision matrix for each decision-maker are determined using a D numbers extended consistent fuzzy preference relation (D-CFPR. An extended multi-attributive border approximation area comparison (MABAC method in D numbers is then developed to rank and select the best alternative risk response strategy. Finally, an illustrative example from construction sector is presented to check the feasibility of the proposed approach. For checking the reliability of alternative ranking, a comparative analysis is performed with different MCDM approaches in D numbers domain. Based on different criteria weights, a sensitivity analysis of obtained ranking of the hybrid D-ANP-MABAC model is performed to verify the robustness of the proposed

  19. Current projects of the National Wind Coordinating Committee

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rhoads, H. [National Wind Coordinating Committee, Washington, DC (United States)

    1997-12-31

    This paper summarizes the activities of the National Wind Coordinating Committee (NWCC), a multi-stakeholder collaborative formed in 1994 to support the responsible use of wind power in the USA. The NWCC`s vision is a self-sustaining commercial market for wind power - environmentally, economically, and politically sustainable. Current NWCC activities include: outreach initiatives, disseminating information about wind energy to regulators and legislators through the Wind Energy Issue Paper Series, researching distributed wind energy models, producing a wind facility permitting handbook, improving avian research, addressing transmission and resource assessment issues, and exploring sustainable development and marketing approaches.

  20. A current perspective on the risk significance of steam explosions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Snyder, A.W.

    1982-01-01

    The view currently held in the Sandia National Laboratory is that, in the case of a meltdown in the reactor core, the probability of a steam explosion is greater than was estimated in WASH-1400, but that the extent and effect of an explosion will be very much smaller than assumed in WASH-1400. This results in a far smaller total risk with regard to containment. In WASH-1400, a nominal conditional probability of 1% was assumed for a containment rupture in a PWR-type reactor, should a large part of the reactor fuel be subject to meltdown during the course of the accident. The German risk analysis study 'Deutsche Risikostudie Kernkraftwerke' dated 1979 considers an explosion of a size sufficient to represent a threat to containment to be considerably more improbable than was assumed in WASH-1400. (orig./DG) [de

  1. Current status and prospects on Rokkasho nuclear fuel cycle project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suzuki, Mitsuo

    2003-01-01

    JNFL has been established aiming at fulfillment of Nuclear Fuel Cycle, as well as to contribute to the long-term and stable supply of nuclear power in Japan. 'Uranium Enrichment Plant' with its production of 1,050 SWU/y and planned to be expand to 1,500 SWU/y, 'Low Level Radioactive Waste Disposal Center' with 150,000/200 l drums stored, out of its 400,000 drums capacity, and 'Vitrified Waste Storage Center' with 760 canisters stored, out of its 1440 canisters capacity, are already in its operation. It is now preparing for the operation of '800 t/y Reprocessing Plant' and construction of '130t HM/y MOX Fuel Fabrication Plant'. As for the Reprocessing Plant, 780t of spent fuels has been already received and stored in the storage pools. Main plant is now in the course of test operation and planned to start the commercial operation by July 2006. Due to some defects found during the course of its construction, JNFL is now reviewing the Total Quality Assurance Structure to improve and reinforce its system. And for the MOX Fuel Fabrication Plant, activities towards obtaining the local autonomy's agreement for the construction are being made energetically. It is essential to obtain the good understanding of the public community to promote these projects successfully; JNFL is putting its best efforts to dispatch all the necessary information to the public in a timely manner. (author)

  2. Effective Project Risk management in Micro Companies : Case study for Persona Optima Iceland ehf.

    OpenAIRE

    Bražinskaitė, Justina

    2011-01-01

    This study is meant to be a guide for micro companies regarding effective project risk management. The main purpose of this thesis is to introduce project risk management and build a user-friendly managerial model toward effective project risk management in micro companies. The research is based on a case company Persona Optima Iceland ehf. analysis. The study investigates risk management, uncertainties and risks in projects, project risk management, its models and particularities in orde...

  3. Canadian pediatric gastroenterology workforce: Current status, concerns and future projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morinville, Véronique; Drouin, Éric; Lévesque, Dominique; Espinosa, Victor M; Jacobson, Kevan

    2007-01-01

    BACKGROUND: There is concern that the Canadian pediatric gastroenterology workforce is inadequate to meet health care demands of the pediatric population. The Canadian Association of Gastroenterology Pediatric Committee performed a survey to determine characteristics and future plans of the Canadian pediatric gastroenterology workforce and trainees. METHODS: Estimates of total and pediatric populations were obtained from the 2001 Census of Population, Statistics Canada (with estimates to July 1, 2005). Data on Canadian pediatric gastroenterologists, including clinical full-time equivalents, sex, work interests, opinions on workforce adequacy, retirement plans, fellowship training programs and future employment plans of fellows, were gathered through e-mail surveys and telephone correspondence in 2005 and 2006. RESULTS: Canada had an estimated population of 32,270,507 in 2005 (6,967,853 people aged zero to 17 years). The pediatric gastroenterology workforce was estimated at 9.2 specialists per million children. Women accounted for 50% of the workforce. Physician to pediatric population ratios varied, with Alberta demonstrating the highest and Saskatchewan the lowest ratios (1:69,404 versus 1:240,950, respectively). Between 1998 and 2005, Canadian pediatric gastroenterology fellowship programs trained 65 fellows (65% international trainees). Twenty-two fellows (34%) entered the Canadian workforce. CONCLUSIONS: The survey highlights the variable and overall low numbers of pediatric gastroenterologists across Canada, an increasingly female workforce, a greater percentage of part-time physicians and a small cohort of Canadian trainees. In conjunction with high projected retirement rates, greater demands on the work-force and desires to partake in nonclinical activities, there is concern for an increasing shortage of pediatric gastroenterologists in Canada in future years. PMID:17948136

  4. Current outcomes and risk factors for the Norwood procedure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stasik, Chad N; Gelehrter, S; Goldberg, Caren S; Bove, Edward L; Devaney, Eric J; Ohye, Richard G

    2006-02-01

    Tremendous strides have been made in the outcomes for hypoplastic left heart syndrome and other functional single-ventricle malformations over the past 25 years. This progress relates primarily to improvements in survival for patients undergoing the Norwood procedure. Previous reports on risk factors have been on smaller groups of patients or collected over relatively long periods of time, during which management has evolved. We analyzed our current results for the Norwood procedure with attention to risk factors for poor outcome. A single-institution review of all patients undergoing a Norwood procedure for a single-ventricle malformation from May 1, 2001, through April 30, 2003, was performed. Patient demographics, anatomy, clinical condition, associated anomalies, operative details, and outcomes were recorded. Of the 111 patients, there were 23 (21%) hospital deaths. Univariate analysis revealed noncardiac abnormalities (genetic or significant extracardiac diagnosis, P = .0018), gestational age (P = .03), diagnosis of unbalanced atrioventricular septal defect (P = .017), and weight of less than 2.5 kg (P = .0072) to be related to hospital death. On multivariate analysis, only weight of less than 2.5 kg and noncardiac abnormalities were found to be independent risk factors. Patients with either of these characteristics had a hospital survival of 52% (12/23), whereas those at standard risk had a survival of 86% (76/88). Although improvements in management might have lessened the effect of some of the traditionally reported risk factors related to variations in the cardiovascular anatomy, noncardiac abnormalities and low birth weight remain as a future challenge for the physician caring for the patient with single-ventricle physiology.

  5. Bridging the Divide between Safety and Risk Management for your Project or Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lutomski, Mike

    2005-01-01

    This presentation will bridge the divide between these separate but overlapping disciplines and help explain how to use Risk Management as an effective management decision support tool that includes safety. Risk Management is an over arching communication tool used by management to prioritize and effectively mitigate potential problems before they concur. Risk Management encompasses every kind of potential problem that can occur on a program or project. Some of these are safety issues such as hazards that have a specific likelihood and consequence that need to be controlled and included to show an integrated picture of accepted) mitigated, and residual risk. Integrating safety and other assurance disciplines is paramount to accurately representing a program s or projects risk posture. Risk is made up of several components such as technical) cost, schedule, or supportability. Safety should also be a consideration for every risk. The safety component can also have an impact on the technical, cost, and schedule aspect of a given risk. The current formats used for communication of safety and risk issues are not consistent or integrated. The presentation will explore the history of these disciplines, current work to integrate them, and suggestions for integration for the future.

  6. Risk analysis for construction and operation of gas pipeline projects in pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mubin, S.; Mubin, G.

    2008-01-01

    In order to cater for its high energy demand, Pakistan is planning to import natural gas through pipelines from neighboring countries. For fully utilizing the imported gas, providing it to end customers, the infrastructure of gas pipeline needs to be developed. Therefore, huge investment has been done and proposed in this sector in coming future. Considering geological, topographical, geopolitical and climatic conditions of the country, there is added risk of earthquake, landslides and floods. Due to current geopolitical situation there is a persistent threat of unrest and terrorism in the country. Instable Government policies, high rate of inflation, rapid change in material prices are also important risk factors. All these factors make the situation very complex in quantifying the risk especially for a project in which the risk impact factor rises exponentially in case of risk occurrence. In this paper, most appropriate risk classification is made based on technological, organizational, political, natural climatic, security and environmental risk factors. Effort has been made to device a simpler risk management methodology to analyze and manage risks of gas pipeline project. In the proposed risk management model Monte Carlo simulation has been used to identify critical risks. (author)

  7. Evaluation Of The Risk Of Financing Projects Of Environmental Protection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela Cornelia PICIU

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The research project approaches multidimensionally the financing of environmental protection from the perspective of directing, correlating and consolidating the financial flows circumscribed to the regeneration of an economy affected by environmental deterioration due to the very activities defining the economic mechanisms and circuits. The purpose of the project is to identify, by scientific, methodological and empirical analysis of the concepts, principles and arguments imposed by the economic theory, the risks of financing the projects of environmental projects and to evaluate their effects because their neglecting, individual approach or erroneous dimensioning might have unfavourable and unforeseen consequences in terms of the efficiency of the environmental strategies and policies. The objective of the study is the reveal the interdependency and interaction between the flows and circuits financing the environmental projects, showing the necessity for punctual, distributive, correlative and multiplicative financing of the environmental protection. This must be done from an expanded and prospective spatial and temporal vision by a compositional approach of the risk for environmental investments within the complex network of the social, economic and financial risks generated by the global system of the human praxis focused on the binomial of the human-environment interdependence.

  8. Occupational emerging risks affecting international virtual project Team Results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dumitraşcu-Băldău Iulia

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The expansion of internet access, high-speed connection services, collaborative work platforms and tools, allowed employees to interact virtually offering companies the possibility to develop projects around the world, reducing operational costs and gain competitive advantage. Realizing the advantages and disadvantages of developing a project team in an international virtual work environment, requires adopting specific strategies to construct an effective team and ensure the project success. One of the most important disadvantages that we identified is that the new work environment brings new risks for both team members and managers. So, it becomes mandatory to identify and analyze the occupational emerging risks and their impact on the productivity of virtual team members, in order to prevent them efficiently and to ensure the safety and health of employees in a virtual working environment. This paper aims to highlight the necessity for project managers and organizations, to include in their specific project strategies, an efficient occupational risks management in the virtual workplace, to obtain a continuously improved virtual working environment, so to achieve a high performance from virtual employees.

  9. Incorporating risk in the economic evaluation of road infrastructure projects

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Schutte, IC

    2009-05-26

    Full Text Available credibility to the process and ensure strategic decisions that are more defendable. In this study, a prosedure for incorporating risk is suggested. It involves the identification of inputs critical to the economic success of the project, the quantification...

  10. Recognizing Risk-of-Failure in Communication Design Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yee, Joyce; Lievesley, Matthew; Taylor, Louise

    2009-01-01

    The pace of commercial graphic design practice presents very few opportunities to conduct user research after a project's launch. This makes the design team's ability to anticipate and address risks during the design development phase even more important, recognized in the astute observation from Tim Brown, CEO of leading international design…

  11. Engineered nanoparticles at the workplace: current knowledge about workers' risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pietroiusti, A; Magrini, A

    2014-07-01

    The novel physicochemical properties of engineered nanoparticles (ENPs) make them very attractive for industrial and biomedical purposes, but concerns have been raised regarding unpredictable adverse health effects in humans. Current evidence for the risk posed by ENPs to exposed workers is the subject of this review. To perform an in-depth review of the state of art of nanoparticle exposure at work. Original articles and reviews in Pubmed and in principal databases of medical literature up to 2013 were included in the analysis. In addition, grey literature released by qualified regulatory agencies and by governmental and non-governmental organizations was also taken into consideration. There are significant knowledge and technical gaps to be filled for a reliable evaluation of the risk posed for workers by ENPs. Evidence for potential workplace release of ENPs however seems substantial, and the amount of exposure may exceed the proposed occupational exposure limits (OELs). The rational use of conventional engineering measures and of protective personal equipment seems to mitigate the risk. A precautionary approach is recommended for workplace exposure to ENPs, until health-based OELs are developed and released by official regulatory agencies. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Occupational Medicine. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  12. Transport project evaluation: feasibility risk assessment and scenario forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a new approach to transport project assessment in terms of feasibility risk assessment and reference class forecasting. Conventionally, transport project assessment is based upon a Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) where evaluation criteria such as Benefit Cost Ratios (BCR...... on the preliminary construction cost estimates. Hereafter, a quantitative risk analysis is provided making use of Monte Carlo simulation. This approach facilitates random input parameters based upon reference class forecasting, hence, a parameter data fit has been performed in order to obtain validated probability...... Scenario Forecasting (RSF) frame. The RSF is anchored in the cost-benefit analysis; thus, it provides decision-makers with a quantitative mean of assessing the transport infrastructure project. First, the RSF method introduces uncertainties within the CBA by applying Optimism Bias uplifts...

  13. Identifying and managing risk in international construction projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sachin Kerur

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Over the last decade, major construction projects have increasingly arisen in countries or regions that lack specialist, expert construction contractors, suppliers and consultants. Steps are being taken by governments in the Middle East, Eastern Europe, China, India and developing markets to address national infrastructure deficits, and by so doing, are creating new regions of booming construction demand. When coupled with anaemic growth in developed markets such as the United Kingdom, the USA and Western Europe, foreign markets present attractive opportunities to the global construction industry. However, foreign markets are littered with the cautionary tales of international contractors and consultants that have failed to grasp the intricacies and risks of operating in a new environment and have failed to capitalise on the opportunities available. By identifying the classes of risks, and undertaking detailed analysis, ranking and mitigation of relevant jurisdictional risks, participants in international construction projects will increase the likelihood of project success and commercial longevity in the new jurisdiction. Risk identification and assessment is not a science but an art, and while there are many potential approaches to the issue, we propose that our strategies for identifying, assessing, ranking and mitigating jurisdictional risks offer new international players a good chance of commercial success.

  14. Shedding New Light on Project Portfolio Risk Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariusz Hofman

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper constitutes an innovative attempt to analyse the risks and negative phenomena dependencies within a project portfolio. Based on the available literature, the risks and negative phenomena (that is, the problems with the availability of resources, interpersonal conflicts, irregularities in the portfolio balance, etc. specific to a project portfolio were identified. Theoretical constructs were then used to connect the identified risks with the negative phenomena. Structural equations were used to confirm the existence and quality of these constructs, as well as models describing connections between phenomena. The determination of the structural equations also provided a setting in which statistical methods (χ2, RMSEA and CFI could be used to investigate the level of fit of the constructs and models to the empirical data.

  15. Survey on the Technology Readiness Level of R and D projects for a Technical Risk Management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song, S. J.; Chang, J.; Lee, K. Y.

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of applying the Technology Readiness Level/Design Readiness Level (TRL/DRL) in technical risk management is to make technology assessments, and improve communication among researchers with a consistent, systematic technology readiness Technical risk management for the Nuclear Hydrogen Production project was adopted of experience assessed with Delphi Method from the Next Generation Nuclear Plant(NGNP)of the DOE to improve the poor contactor management of the major projects which experienced cost increases and/or schedule delays in long-term. In the current phase that is doing key technology research and development projects, the technology readiness level was reviewed and applied to the Nuclear Hydrogen Production project to prepare an input for the next design phases. Based on the previous works, pre-conceptional design and key R and D works for the Nuclear Hydrogen Design and Development(NHDD) projects and the results of key research and development projects, the TRL was applied to assess the levels and compared with the advanced design stages of Westinghouse Electric Co. With this process, several issues were identified to apply the design and technology level to the familiar steps of design process and research and development projects. In order to resolve these issues, it is needed to systematically adjust and modify the current process with TRLs

  16. Risk reduction of international mining projects by means of investor consortia and diversification of external financing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirchner, C.

    1982-01-01

    Investors and creditors of international mining projects bear specific risks which may be reduced by means of forming investor and financing consortia. Risk is defined for each actor separately. Project risk and investor risk respectively credit risk are useful categories in order to analyze risk reduction. In each case formation of consortia has a positive influence on the economic viability of the project, and thus reduces the project risk. Furthermore, formation of consortia leads to better compliance of the host country of the mining project with the project and financing agreements. Thus, investor and credit risk may be reduced. (orig.) [de

  17. Risk management for engineering projects procedures, methods and tools

    CERN Document Server

    Munier, Nolberto

    2014-01-01

    Many people see risk in engineering projects as an imprecise and nebulous problem - something that exists, is feared and is impossible to deal with. Nothing could be further from the truth. While risk is certainly ubiquitous, sometimes difficult to detect, and cannot always be completely avoided, it can generally be mitigated, reduced or prevented through timely analysis and action.   This book covers the entire process of risk management by providing methodologies for determining the sources of project risk, and once threats have been identified, managing them through:   ·         identification and assessment (probability, relative importance, variables, risk breakdown structure, etc.) ·         implementation of measures for their prevention, reduction or mitigation ·         evaluation of impacts and quantification of risks ·         establishment of control measures   It also considers sensitivity analysis to determine the influence of uncertain parameters values ...

  18. [Application of risk grading and classification for occupational hazards in risk management for a shipbuilding project].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Wenfeng; Tan, Qiang; Wu, Shihua; Deng, Yingcong; Liu, Lifen; Wang, Zhi; Liu, Yimin

    2015-12-01

    To investigate the application of risk grading and classification for occupational hazards in risk management for a shipbuilding project. The risk management for this shipbuilding project was performed by a comprehensive application of MES evaluation, quality assessment of occupational health management, and risk grading and classification for occupational hazards, through the methods of occupational health survey, occupational health testing, and occupational health examinations. The results of MES evaluation showed that the risk of occupational hazards in this project was grade 3, which was considered as significant risk; Q value calculated by quality assessment of occupational health management was 0.52, which was considered to be unqualified; the comprehensive evaluation with these two methods showed that the integrated risk rating for this shipbuilding project was class D, and follow- up and rectification were needed with a focus on the improvement in health management. The application of MES evaluation and quality assessment of occupational health management in risk management for occupational hazards can achieve objective and reasonable conclusions and has good applicability.

  19. Risk Analysis and Forecast Service for Geomagnetically Induced Currents in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wik, Magnus; Pirjola, Risto; Viljanen, Ari; Lundstedt, Henrik

    Geomagnetically induced currents (GIC), occurring during magnetic storms, pose a widespread natural disaster risk to the reliable operation of electric power transmission grids, oil and gas pipelines, telecommunication cables and railway systems. The solar magnetic activity is the cause of GIC. Solar coronal holes can cause recurrent inter-vals of raised geomagnetic activity, and coronal mass ejections (CME) at the Sun, sometimes producing very high speed plasma clouds with enhanced magnetic fields and particle densities, can cause the strongest geomagnetic storms. When the solar wind interacts with the geomag-netic field, energy is transferred to the magnetosphere, driving strong currents in the ionosphere. When these currents change in time a geoelectric field is induced at the surface of the Earth and in the ground. Finally, this field drives GIC in the ground and in any technological conductor systems. The worst consequence of a severe magnetic storm within a power grid is a complete blackout, as happened in the province of Québec, Canada, in March 1989, and in the city of Malmü, Sweden, in October 2003. Gas and oil pipelines are not regarded as vulnerable to the immediate impact of GIC, but the corrosion rate of buried steel pipes can increase due to GIC, which may thus shorten the lifetime of a pipe. European Risk from Geomagnetically Induced Currents (EURISGIC) is an EU project, that, if approved, will produce the first European-wide real-time prototype forecast service of GIC in power systems, based on in-situ solar wind observations and comprehensive simulations of the Earth's magnetosphere. This project focuses on high-voltage power transmission networks, which are probably currently the most susceptible to GIC effects. Geomagnetic storms cover large geographical regions, at times the whole globe. Consequently, power networks are rightly described as being European critical infrastructures whose disruption or destruction could have a significant impact

  20. Identification and assessment of risk factors affecting construction projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed Sayed Bassiony Ahmed Abd El-Karim

    2017-08-01

    Unexpected increase in cost and delays in construction projects are caused by owner, contractor, environments, etc. in which several types of risk factors may occur concurrently. The effect of cost overrun and schedule overrun do not only influence the construction industry but the overall economy as well. Even though construction project increasing in cost and schedule has received extensive attention of researchers, but because of continuous changes and development in the field, the study considered of added value to the construction industry in Egypt, in addition to risk strategy and plan analysis. In order to meet the deadline of a project and due to the complex nature of construction projects, cost and scheduling should be flexible enough to accommodate changes without negatively affecting the overall project cost and duration. As such, the objectives of the presented research in this paper are to identify, study, and assess the effect of the factors that affect cost and time contingency. Data are collected from sixteen construction companies in Egypt. The collected data, output charts and analyses spreadsheets will be used for the development of computerized model built by the authors with identification abbreviation RIAM.

  1. monIT: A Portuguese Risk Communication Project on EMF

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oliveira, Carla; Sebastiao, Daniel; Carpinteiro, Goncalo; Fernandes, Carlos A.; Correia, Luis M.

    2006-01-01

    The monIT project is a risk communication programme, aiming at providing information on exposure to electromagnetic fields (EMF) from mobile communication systems in Portugal. monIT's website, www.lxlit.pt/monit, is the main interface for dissemination of information. Besides including relevant information about EMF for both the general public and the technical community, this website provides results from extensive measurement campaigns performed all over Portugal during the last three years. This paper presents the project's structure and activities, practical results achieved and ends with some conclusions and action lines for future work. (author)

  2. Risk Management System and Project Staff Education Program for Overseas Construction Project Using the Expert System

    OpenAIRE

    Hirota, Yoichi

    2007-01-01

    The turnover of the Japanese contractors and the consulting firms has kept the same level since 1983, in spite of the fact that the size of domestic market is shrinking. This is why they do not have a proper management system, especially risk management system for the overseas construction projects. This study aims at building risk management system and developing education program that can be applied to reinforcing the ability, based on the author’s experience. Risk is defined as “uncertain ...

  3. Ontological Analysis of the Project Risk Management Concept ‘Risk’

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Uzulāns Juris

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the current research series is to examine the definitions of the concept ‘risk’ and analyze the concepts used in the definitions of ‘risk’ in the sources of these definitions in order to perform the ontological analysis of the concept of ‘risk’. Ontological and epistemological analysis of the concepts in the definition of the concept ‘risk’ was used to answer the question what ‘risk’ means in project management. This investigation represents a part of the research series where the ontological, epistemological and methodological analysis of project risk is performed with the aim to improve risk registers and risk management as a whole. In the previous studies the author analyzed the concept of ‘event’ that defines the content of the concept ‘risk’. The use of ‘event’ was analyzed in different sources to find out how the concept should be used. The ontological, epistemological and methodological analysis of the definitions of the concept ‘risk’ is the theoretical foundation for risk register creation because it is possible to create complete and understandable register for the participants of the project risk management process. The author believes that the conducted research helps establish confidence that ontological analysis is the method that together with the epistemological and methodological analysis provides opportunity to perform analysis of risk management sources aimed at improving risk management. The results of the study cannot be considered sufficient for deriving valid conclusions about project risk management and developing recommendations for improving risk management with regard to the content of the risk register. For valid conclusions and recommendations, a deeper research is needed which, first of all, would analyze a larger number of sources.

  4. Coordination of Project and Current Activities on the Basis of the Strategy Alignment Metamodel in the Oil and Gas Company

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Yu. Dashkov

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: the purpose of this article is to describe the Strategy Alignment Metamodel of the project and current activities, which allows us to connect the Goals and Strategies for Phases of the project with the Goals and Strategies of the company at all levels of the organization through targeted measurement and application of Interpretive Models. Building Networks of Goals and Strategies, and adopting organizational solutions, you coordinate the interaction of the Project office and departments of the company. This methodology is based on a Logical Rationale of the Contexts and Assumptions for establishing Goals and Strategies both for the project and for the company, and on preparation of Contexts and Assumptions, Goals and Strategies Alignment Matrices, which provides a flexible adaptation to the internal and external environment in the process of selecting the most successful Strategies to achieve the Goals. Methods: this article is based on the concept of Goals-Questions-Metrics+ Strategies, which is adapted as another concept of strategic monitoring and control system of projects: Goals-Phases-Metrics+Strategies. These concepts have formed the basis of the Strategy Alignment Metamodel, where a technology of Phases Earned Value Management is used as a measurement system for the project activity, and Balanced scorecard is applied for current operations. Results: strategy Alignment Metamodel of the project and current activities of the company is proposed hereby. It uses modern strategic monitoring and control systems for projects: Goals-Phases-Metrics+Strategies, and for the company: Goals-Questions-Metrics+ Strategies. The interaction between these systems is based on Contexts and Assumptions, Goals and Strategies Alignment Matrices. The existence of such matrices greatly simplifies management decisions and prevents the risk of delays in the execution of project Phases based on rational participation and coordination of the company

  5. Managing geotechnical risk on US design-build transport projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin McLain

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Awarding design-build (DB contracts before a complete subsurface investigation is completed, makes mitigating the risk of differing site conditions difficult, if not impossible. The purpose of the study was to identify effective practices for managing geotechnical risk in DB projects, and it reports the results of a survey that included responses from 42 of 50 US state departments of transportation and a content analysis of DB requests for proposals from 26 states to gauge the client’s perspective, as well as 11 structured interviews with DB contractors to obtain the perspective from the other side of the DB contract.  A suite of DB geotechnical risk manage tools is presented based on the results of the analysis. Effective practices were found in three areas: enhancing communications on geotechnical issues before final proposals are submitted; the use of project-specific differing site conditions clauses; and expediting geotechnical design reviews after award. The major finding is that contract verbiage alone is not sufficient to transfer the risk of changed site conditions. The agency must actively communicate all the geotechnical information on hand at the time of the DB procurement and develop a contract strategy that reduces/retires the risk of geotechnical uncertainty as expeditiously as possible after award.

  6. Methodology evaluation of innovative projects under risk and uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available This article deals with problems connected with the assessment of innovative projects in the context of risk and uncertainty, topical issues of evaluation of innovative projects at the present stage of development of the Russian economy. By the example of the solution of the "crossing the river" is considering the possibility of using hierarchical models to address it. In what follows, and compares the priorities of different groups of factors are given by calculating the overall costs and benefits. The paper provides a rationale for combined use of four aspects: the beneficial aspects of the decision (the benefits and opportunities and negative (costs and risks that may lead to the decision in question.

  7. Risk management in methodologies of information technology and communications projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan Carrillo

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available (Received: 2013/10/02 - Accepted: 2013/12/13At present there are methodologies that have several alternatives and methods to manage projects of Information and Communication Technologies. However, these do not cover a solution for the technology events that can occur in the industry, government, education, among others. In the technology market there are several models to identify and analyze risks according to relevant aspects of their area of specialty e.g. projects, in software development, communications, information security and business alignment. For this reason, this research conducted an evaluation of risk management activities of the methodologies used mostly to know which of them includes more correspondence with basic elements of IT using a rating scale.

  8. Assessing reservoir performance risk in CO2 storage projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bowden, A.R.; Rigg, A.

    2005-01-01

    One of the main issues for researchers involved with geological storage of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) has been the development of a proper methodology to assess and compare alternative CO 2 injection projects on the basis of risk. Consideration needs to be given to technical aspects, such as the risk of leakage and the effectiveness of the intended reservoir, as well as less tangible aspects such as the value and safety of geological storage of CO 2 , and potential impacts on the community and environment. The Geological Disposal of Carbon Dioxide (GEODISC), was a research program of the Australian Petroleum Cooperative Research Centre which identified 56 potential environmentally sustainable sites for CO 2 injection (ESSCIs) within Australia. Several studies were carried out, involving detailed evaluation of the suitability of 4 selected sites, including Dongara, Petrel, Gippsland and Carnarvon. The GEODISC program included a risk assessment research module which required a complete and quantified risk assessment of CO 2 injection as a storage option. Primary goals were to assess the risk of leakage, to assess the effectiveness of the intended reservoir, and to assess negative consequences to facilitate comparison of alternative sites. This paper discussed the background and risk assessment model. Key performance indicators (KPIs) were also developed to address the purpose of risk assessment. It was concluded that the RISQUE method is an appropriate approach and that potential injection projects can be measured against six KPIs including containment; effectiveness; self-funding potential; wider community benefits; community safety and community amenity. 6 refs., 3 tabs., 3 figs

  9. RIMAP demonstration project. Risk-based life management of piping system in power plant Heilbronn

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bareiss, J.; Buck, P.; Matschecko, B.; Jovanovic, A.; Balos, D.; Perunicic, M.

    2004-01-01

    In the framework of EU project RIMAP [Risk Based Inspection and Maintenance Procedures for European Industry (2000)] a new European Guideline for optimized risk based maintenance and inspection planning of industrial plants (RBLM, Risk Based Life Management) is being developed. The RIMAP project consists of the three clustered projects: - development (RTD); - demonstration (DEMO): - thematic network (TN). Current work and future, planned work in RIMAP demonstration project on applications of the RIMAP methodology in power plants are presented briefly in the first part of the paper. Also presented in the paper are the results of a preliminary analysis of piping system in power plant Heilbronn using the concept of risk-based monitoring as part of overall concept of risk-based life management. Shortly the following issues are discussed in the paper: - identification of critical components; - application of a multilevel risk analysis (...from 'screening' to 'detailed analysis'); - determination of PoF (Probability of Failure); - determination of CoF (Consequence of Failure); - optimation of inspection and maintenance plan. From our experience with the application of the RIMAP methodology the following conclusions can be drawn: The use of risk-based methods in inspection and maintenance of piping systems in power plants gives transparency to the decision making process and gives an optimized maintenance policy based on current state of the components. The results of the work clearly show the power of the proposed method for concentration on critical items: out of 64 monitored components 5 were selected for intermediate analysis and only 1 for the detailed analysis (probabilistic high temperature fracture mechanics)

  10. RISK ANALYSIS FOR SHIP CONVERTING PROJECT ACCOMPLISHMENT (Case study of KRI KP Converting Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimas Endro W

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Ship converting has become as prospective activity in ship building area. Operational and economical aspect are the most dominant rationale. Baseon a new fuction of converted ship, a task list which contain several jobs that must be done is listed. This accomplishment schedule not only contain a task list, but also duration for certain job title. In practical apllication job duration is maintained based on experience of project manager.  Further more, total accomplish duration is setted as time accomplishment for the project. This setted time has become reference for the project bid. Occasionaly, if accomplishment time which offered is strict, than schedule slip become as potencial nightmare. For this situation, project manager has had a cristal clearconsideration to select a proper decision wheter he will take the tender offer or not. practically, project mananger has layed on his experience to handle previous project and face  penalty if the project delayed. This paper focussed on how to measure tender offer based on risk analysis, specially for converted ship tender which has a strike time accomplishment.A new application method to analysis proposed tender based on time and penalty parameter has become a topic of this paper.

  11. Food allergy and risk assessment: Current status and future directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remington, Benjamin C.

    2017-09-01

    Risk analysis is a three part, interactive process that consists of a scientific risk assessment, a risk management strategy and an exchange of information through risk communication. Quantitative risk assessment methodologies are now available and widely used for assessing risks regarding the unintentional consumption of major, regulated allergens but new or modified proteins can also pose a risk of de-novo sensitization. The risks due to de-novo sensitization to new food allergies are harder to quantify. There is a need for a systematic, comprehensive battery of tests and assessment strategy to identify and characterise de-novo sensitization to new proteins and the risks associated with them. A risk assessment must be attuned to answer the risk management questions and needs. Consequently, the hazard and risk assessment methods applied and the desired information are determined by the requested outcome for risk management purposes and decisions to be made. The COST Action network (ImpARAS, www.imparas.eu) has recently started to discuss these risk management criteria from first principles and will continue with the broader subject of improving strategies for allergen risk assessment throughout 2016-2018/9.

  12. Managing a complex project using a risk-risk multiple domain matrix

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pointurier, C.; Marle, F.; Jaber, H.

    2014-01-01

    This communication aims at presenting a clustering methodology applied to a complex project consisting of the delivery of three interdependent subsystems. This enables small and complementary task forces to be constituted, enhancing the communication and coordination on transverse issues related to the complexity of the whole system. The problem is to gather and exploit data for such systems, with numerous and heterogeneous risks of different domains (product, process, organization). The method consists in regrouping actors through the clustering of the risks they own. The result is a highlight on important and transverse risk interdependencies, within and between projects. These should not be neglected in order to avoid potential severe issues, whether during the project or during the exploitation of its deliverable. An application on a real program of plant implementation in the CEA-DAM is presented, with a sensitivity analysis of the clustering results to the inputs and chosen configurations of the problem. (authors)

  13. Cost control and risk mitigation of major projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caddy, D.G.

    1993-01-01

    In this paper and presentation, the four major types of estimates will be discussed, i.e., capacity factored, equipment factored, semi-detailed and detailed. Key relationships between particular portions of estimates will be discussed such as the relationship between direct field labor and indirect field costs. Having set the basis for developing a project's cost through estimating, the paper will then list and discuss the fifteen key steps which must be followed to control the costs of a project. Next, the subject of allowances and contingency will be discussed and defined and the differences between the two will be highlighted. Having established exactly what contingency is, the subject of risk analysis through RANGE estimating will be discussed. The methods used to establish a precise contingency and probability of an over/under run will be discussed. Finally, the paper will discuss the methods by which a project manager, owner or contractor can mitigate risks; that is to eliminate, transfer or minimize their effect

  14. Hanford Waste Vitrification Project Building limited scope risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Braun, D.J.; Lindberg, S.E.; Reardon, M.F.; Wilson, G.P.

    1992-10-01

    A limited scope risk assessment was performed on the preliminary design of a high-level waste interim storage facility. The Canister Storage Building (CSB) facility will be built to support remediation at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site in Washington State. The CSB will be part of the support facilities for a high level Hanford Waste Vitrification Plant (HWVP). The limited scope risk assessment is based on a preliminary design which uses forced air circulation systems to move air through the building vault. The current building design calls for natural circulation to move air through the building vault

  15. Longitudinal Impact of the Project PATHS on Adolescent Risk Behavior: What Happened after Five Years?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel T. L. Shek

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The present study investigated the longitudinal impact of the Project PATHS, a large-scale curriculum-based positive youth development program in Hong Kong, on the development of adolescents’ risk behavior over a period of five years. Using a longitudinal randomized controlled design, eight waves of data were collected from 19 experimental schools in which students participated in the Project PATHS (=2,850 at Wave 8 and 24 control schools without joining the Project PATHS (=3,640 at Wave 8. At each wave, students responded to measures assessing their current risk behaviors, including delinquency, use of different types of drug, and their intentions of participating in risk behaviors in the future. Results demonstrated that adolescents receiving the program exhibited significantly slower increases in delinquent behaviors and substance use as compared to the control participants. During two years after the completion of the program, differences in youth risk behaviors in the two groups still existed. These results suggest that the Project PATHS has long-term effect in preventing adolescent problem behavior through promoting positive youth development.

  16. Risk projection and the fertility of rural families.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, R

    1991-01-01

    The author comments on the theories and empirical evidence which aid in understanding the determinants of the reproductive behavior of farmers in China. The issues are defined, and discussion expands on the needs for a specific number of children in rural versus urban areas, M. Cain's risk insurance hypothesis, the importance of modes of production for the farm family, the farmer's security versus risks, and the balance between risk projection and the maximization of interest. The significance of risk projection is presented as are the implications for policy making. Neither theory of farmer's reproductive behavior, 1) the economic cost and benefit theory or 2) the need for labor theory is considered suitable. The idea that benefits exceed the costs of rearing children cannot justify the repeated cycle of poverty among farmers with many children. The Hubei Province, Danjiankou City, study which estimates rearing costs of 3360 yuan/child benefits of 305 yuan/year to the parents in old age is considered incorrect. The second theory agrees that children are needed for production but recognized surplus labor and does not account for the fact that the more children, the poorer the family. Micro demographic theories identify factors affecting demographic behavior, the extent to which factors affect fertility, and the interrelatedness of factors. The rural family feels jeopardized with one child, and the lowest tolerable number of children is 2-3 in rural areas. Manual labor is the basis of the traditional peasant economy. In this economy, loss of income is a threat whether due to crop failure, weather changes, or market changes. Payment occurs at the end of the year only. Child health is a risk due to poor nutrition and poor health facilities. Following a one-child policy might jeopardize perpetuation of the family line and provision for parents by sons. Urban risks are different. Rural families limit risk by keeping material resources, enlarging and strengthening the

  17. Alpha-risk: a European project on the quantification of risks associated with multiple radiation exposures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laurier, D.; Monchaux, G.; Tirmarche, M.; Darby, S.; Cardis, E.; Binks, K.; Hofmann, W.; Muirhead, C.

    2006-01-01

    The Alpha-Risk research project is being conducted within the Sixth European Framework Programme (EC-FP6, 2005 -2008). It aims to improve the quantification of risks associated with multiple exposures, taking into account the contribution of different radionuclides and external exposure using specific organ dose calculations. The Alpha-Risk Consortium involves 18 partners from 9 countries, and is coordinated by the IRSN. Its composition allows a multidisciplinary collaboration between researchers in epidemiology, dosimetry, statistics, modelling and risk assessment. Alpha-Risk brings together major epidemiological studies in Europe, which are able to evaluate long-term health effects of internal exposure from radionuclides. It includes large size cohort and case-control studies, with accurate registration of individual annual exposures: uranium miner studies, studies on lung cancer and indoor radon exposure, and studies of lung cancer and leukaemia among nuclear workers exposed to transuranic nuclides (mainly uranium and plutonium), for whom organ doses will be reconstructed individually. The contribution of experts in dosimetry will allow the calculation of organ doses in presence of multiple exposures (radon decay products, uranium dust and external gamma exposure). Expression of the risk per unit organ dose will make it possible to compare results with those from other populations exposed to external radiation. The multidisciplinary approach of Alpha-Risk promotes the development of coherent and improved methodological approaches regarding risk modelling. A specific work - package is dedicated to the integration of results and their use for risk assessment, especially for radon. Alpha-Risk will contribute to a better understanding of long-term health risks following chronic low doses from internal exposures. The project also has the great potential to help resolve major public health concerns about the effects of low and/or protracted exposures, especially

  18. Risk Evaluation of a UHV Power Transmission Construction Project Based on a Cloud Model and FCE Method for Sustainability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huiru Zhao

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available In order to achieve the sustainable development of energy, Ultra High Voltage (UHV power transmission construction projects are being established in China currently. Their high-tech nature, the massive amount of money involved, and the need for multi-agent collaboration as well as complex construction environments bring many challenges and risks. Risk management, therefore, is critical to reduce the risks and realize sustainable development of projects. Unfortunately, many traditional risk assessment methods may not perform well due to the great uncertainty and randomness inherent in UHV power construction projects. This paper, therefore, proposes a risk evaluation index system and a hybrid risk evaluation model to evaluate the risk of UHV projects and find out the key risk factors. This model based on a cloud model and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE method combines the superiority of the cloud model for reflecting randomness and discreteness with the advantages of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method in handling uncertain and vague issues. For the sake of proving our framework, an empirical study of “Zhejiang-Fuzhou” UHV power transmission construction project is presented. As key contributions, we find the risk of this project lies at a “middle” to “high” level and closer to a “middle” level; the “management risk” and “social risk” are identified as the most important risk factors requiring more attention; and some risk control recommendations are proposed. This article demonstrates the value of our approach in risk identification, which seeks to improve the risk control level and the sustainable development of UHV power transmission construction projects.

  19. Status of high temperature superconductor cable and fault current limiter projects at American Superconductor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maguire, J.F.; Yuan, J.

    2009-01-01

    This paper will describe the status of three key programs currently underway at American Superconductor Corp. The first program is the LIPA project which is a transmission voltage high temperature superconducting cable program, with funding support from the US Department of Energy. The 600 m cable, capable of carrying 574 MVA, was successfully installed and commissioned in LIPA grid on April 22, 2008. An overview of the project, system level design details and operational data will be provided. In addition, the status of the newly awarded LIPA II project will be described. The second program is Project Hydra, with funding support from the US Department of Homeland Security, to design, develop and demonstrate an HTS cable with fault current limiting functionality. The cable is 300 m long and is being designed to carry 96 MVA at a distribution level voltage of 13.8 kV. The cable will be permanently installed and energized in Manhattan, New York in 2010. The initial status of Project Hydra will be presented. The final program to be discussed is a transmission voltage, high temperature superconducting fault current limiter funded by the US DOE. The project encompasses the design, construction and test of a 115 kV FCL for power transmission within a time frame of 4-5 years. Installation and testing are planned for a Southern California Edison substation. A project overview and progress under the first phase will be reported.

  20. Status of high temperature superconductor cable and fault current limiter projects at American Superconductor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maguire, J.F., E-mail: jmaguire@amsc.co [American Superconductor Co., 64 Jackson Road, Devens, MA 01434 (United States); Yuan, J. [American Superconductor Co., 64 Jackson Road, Devens, MA 01434 (United States)

    2009-10-15

    This paper will describe the status of three key programs currently underway at American Superconductor Corp. The first program is the LIPA project which is a transmission voltage high temperature superconducting cable program, with funding support from the US Department of Energy. The 600 m cable, capable of carrying 574 MVA, was successfully installed and commissioned in LIPA grid on April 22, 2008. An overview of the project, system level design details and operational data will be provided. In addition, the status of the newly awarded LIPA II project will be described. The second program is Project Hydra, with funding support from the US Department of Homeland Security, to design, develop and demonstrate an HTS cable with fault current limiting functionality. The cable is 300 m long and is being designed to carry 96 MVA at a distribution level voltage of 13.8 kV. The cable will be permanently installed and energized in Manhattan, New York in 2010. The initial status of Project Hydra will be presented. The final program to be discussed is a transmission voltage, high temperature superconducting fault current limiter funded by the US DOE. The project encompasses the design, construction and test of a 115 kV FCL for power transmission within a time frame of 4-5 years. Installation and testing are planned for a Southern California Edison substation. A project overview and progress under the first phase will be reported.

  1. Status of high temperature superconductor cable and fault current limiter projects at American Superconductor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maguire, J. F.; Yuan, J.

    2009-10-01

    This paper will describe the status of three key programs currently underway at American Superconductor Corp. The first program is the LIPA project which is a transmission voltage high temperature superconducting cable program, with funding support from the US Department of Energy. The 600 m cable, capable of carrying 574 MVA, was successfully installed and commissioned in LIPA grid on April 22, 2008. An overview of the project, system level design details and operational data will be provided. In addition, the status of the newly awarded LIPA II project will be described. The second program is Project Hydra, with funding support from the US Department of Homeland Security, to design, develop and demonstrate an HTS cable with fault current limiting functionality. The cable is 300 m long and is being designed to carry 96 MVA at a distribution level voltage of 13.8 kV. The cable will be permanently installed and energized in Manhattan, New York in 2010. The initial status of Project Hydra will be presented. The final program to be discussed is a transmission voltage, high temperature superconducting fault current limiter funded by the US DOE. The project encompasses the design, construction and test of a 115 kV FCL for power transmission within a time frame of 4-5 years. Installation and testing are planned for a Southern California Edison substation. A project overview and progress under the first phase will be reported.

  2. WE-B-BRC-01: Current Methodologies in Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rath, F. [University of Wisconsin Madison (United States)

    2016-06-15

    Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. We therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology

  3. WE-B-BRC-01: Current Methodologies in Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rath, F.

    2016-01-01

    Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. We therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology

  4. Perceived risks in product innovation projects : development of a risk skeleton

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Halman, J.I.M.; Keizer, J.A.; Song, X.M.

    1999-01-01

    The essence of undertaking a product innovation project is to create or establish something new. Risk taking is an intrinsic part of that process. In today's markets, with heavy competition, advanced technology and tough economic conditions, successful product innovation has become critically

  5. Risk Evaluation on UHV Power Transmission Construction Project Based on AHP and FCE Method

    OpenAIRE

    Huiru Zhao; Sen Guo

    2014-01-01

    Ultra high voltage (UHV) power transmission construction project is a high-tech power grid construction project which faces many risks and uncertainty. Identifying the risk of UHV power transmission construction project can help mitigate the risk loss and promote the smooth construction. The risk evaluation on “Zhejiang-Fuzhou” UHV power transmission construction project was performed based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE) method in this paper. Afte...

  6. New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skandamis, Panagiotis N.; Andritsos, Nikolaos; Psomas, Antonios; Paramythiotis, Spyridon

    2015-01-01

    The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total ‘failure’ that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user

  7. New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skandamis, Panagiotis N., E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Andritsos, Nikolaos, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Psomas, Antonios, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Paramythiotis, Spyridon, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr [Laboratory of Food Quality Control and Hygiene, Department of Food Science and Technology, Agricultural University of Athens, Iera Odos 75, 118 55, Athens (Greece)

    2015-01-22

    The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total ‘failure’ that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user

  8. New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skandamis, Panagiotis N.; Andritsos, Nikolaos; Psomas, Antonios; Paramythiotis, Spyridon

    2015-01-01

    The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total `failure' that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user-friendly softwares

  9. Determinants of cardiovascular risk in current rheumatic practice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meek, I.L.

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this thesis was to study cardiovascular risk in arthritis: Firstly, how do different rheumatic diseases compare in the patients’ traditional cardiovascular (CV) risk factor profiles, and does this justify the general focus on rheumatoid arthritis regarding cardiovascular complications in

  10. The Current Status of Graduate Training in Suicide Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liebling-Boccio, Dana E.; Jennings, Heather R.

    2013-01-01

    Directors and coordinators (n = 75) of graduate programs in school psychology approved by the National Association of School Psychologists (NASP) were surveyed regarding their training practices in suicide risk assessment. Respondents viewed the assessment of suicide risk as an important part of graduate instruction, and most believed that…

  11. Current situation of the project of 3. and 4. block of nuclear power plant Mochovce

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suchy, L.

    2006-01-01

    The contribution shows the basic information about the crucial milestone of 3. building and the current situation of the project of 3. and 4. block of the nuclear power plant Mochovce. Contribution also shows what activities were realized and what material in area of designation of the technical and safety standard of the project was elaborated in the past, the main activities planned for 2006 have been described, support for Feasibility Study elaborated by ENEL and description of the integrated management system. The basic thesis crucial for the next steps on the project of 3. and 4. block of Nuclear Power Plant Mochovce is presented in the conclusion

  12. ePORT, NASA's Computer Database Program for System Safety Risk Management Oversight (Electronic Project Online Risk Tool)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Paul W.

    2008-01-01

    ePORT (electronic Project Online Risk Tool) provides a systematic approach to using an electronic database program to manage a program/project risk management processes. This presentation will briefly cover the standard risk management procedures, then thoroughly cover NASA's Risk Management tool called ePORT. This electronic Project Online Risk Tool (ePORT) is a web-based risk management program that provides a common framework to capture and manage risks, independent of a programs/projects size and budget. It is used to thoroughly cover the risk management paradigm providing standardized evaluation criterion for common management reporting, ePORT improves Product Line, Center and Corporate Management insight, simplifies program/project manager reporting, and maintains an archive of data for historical reference.

  13. Flash flood forecasting, warning and risk management: the HYDRATE project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borga, M.; Anagnostou, E.N.; Bloeschl, G.; Creutin, J.-D.

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → We characterize flash flood events in various regions of Europe. → We provide guidance to improve observations and monitoring of flash floods. → Flash floods are associated to orography and are influenced by initial soil moisture conditions. → Models for flash flood forecasting and flash flood hazard assessment are illustrated and discussed. → We examine implications for flood risk policy and discuss recommendations received from end users. - Abstract: The management of flash flood hazards and risks is a critical component of public safety and quality of life. Flash-floods develop at space and time scales that conventional observation systems are not able to monitor for rainfall and river discharge. Consequently, the atmospheric and hydrological generating mechanisms of flash-floods are poorly understood, leading to highly uncertain forecasts of these events. The objective of the HYDRATE project has been to improve the scientific basis of flash flood forecasting by advancing and harmonising a European-wide innovative flash flood observation strategy and developing a coherent set of technologies and tools for effective early warning systems. To this end, the project included actions on the organization of the existing flash flood data patrimony across Europe. The final aim of HYDRATE was to enhance the capability of flash flood forecasting in ungauged basins by exploiting the extended availability of flash flood data and the improved process understanding. This paper provides a review of the work conducted in HYDRATE with a special emphasis on how this body of research can contribute to guide the policy-life cycle concerning flash flood risk management.

  14. Lipoprotein(a) as a cardiovascular risk factor: current status

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nordestgaard, Børge G; Chapman, M John; Ray, Kausik

    2010-01-01

    The aims of the study were, first, to critically evaluate lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)] as a cardiovascular risk factor and, second, to advise on screening for elevated plasma Lp(a), on desirable levels, and on therapeutic strategies.......The aims of the study were, first, to critically evaluate lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)] as a cardiovascular risk factor and, second, to advise on screening for elevated plasma Lp(a), on desirable levels, and on therapeutic strategies....

  15. A Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model for Sustainability Risk Evaluation of PPP Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Libiao Bai

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Evaluating the sustainability risk level of public–private partnership (PPP projects can reduce project risk incidents and achieve the sustainable development of the organization. However, the existing studies about PPP projects risk management mainly focus on exploring the impact of financial and revenue risks but ignore the sustainability risks, causing the concept of “sustainability” to be missing while evaluating the risk level of PPP projects. To evaluate the sustainability risk level and achieve the most important objective of providing a reference for the public and private sectors when making decisions on PPP project management, this paper constructs a factor system of sustainability risk of PPP projects based on an extensive literature review and develops a mathematical model based on the methods of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model (FCEM and failure mode, effects and criticality analysis (FMECA for evaluating the sustainability risk level of PPP projects. In addition, this paper conducts computational experiment based on a questionnaire survey to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of this proposed model. The results suggest that this model is reasonable for evaluating the sustainability risk level of PPP projects. To our knowledge, this paper is the first study to evaluate the sustainability risk of PPP projects, which would not only enrich the theories of project risk management, but also serve as a reference for the public and private sectors for the sustainable planning and development. Keywords: sustainability risk eva

  16. Risks Associated with Unconventional Gas Extraction Projects. Induced Seismicity, NORM and Ecological Risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodrigo-Naharro, J.; Hurtado, A.; Eguilior, S.; Recreo, F.

    2015-01-01

    The latest technological advances in hydraulic fracturing (fracking) and horizontal drilling are globally driving the commercial extraction of unconventional resources. Although there is still no commercial exploitation of these resources within the EU, the fact that there are potential reserves in some countries, such as Spain, stimulates the need of performing preliminary studies to define the characteristics that an unconventional gas extraction project should consider. The object of these features are the safety of the project, thus minimizing the probabilities of negative environmental impacts, and especially since there is not any EU Framework Directive focusing on the regulation of the operation of such fossil fuels. A project of this nature, involving natural systems, must start from the knowledge of these systems and from an assessment of its features in order to reach the environmental safety of the operations. Moreover, the implementation of risk management systems, along with the existence of an appropriate legislation and supervision are key elements in the development of unconventional gas extraction projects that are environmentally friendly. The present report includes, among the overall risks associated with such projects, those related to: i) the induced seismicity; ii) the Naturally-Occurring Radioactive Materials (NORM); and iii) the ecology.

  17. Shell’s use of science in de-risking projects

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Rossouw, N

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available This presentation discusses Shell’s use of science in de-risking projects. The presentation includes examples of applying science in the De-Risking process, supporting scientific research and De-Risking the Karoo Basin....

  18. Improving Flood Risk Maps as a Capacity Building Activity: Fostering Public Participation and Raising Flood Risk Awareness in the German Mulde Region (project RISK MAP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luther, J.; Meyer, V.; Kuhlicke, C.; Scheuer, S.; Unnerstall, H.

    2012-04-01

    The EU Floods Directive requires the establishment of flood risk maps for high risk areas in all EU Member States by 2013. However, if existing at all, the current practice of risk mapping still shows some deficits: Risk maps are often seen as an information tool rather than a communication tool. This means that e.g. important local knowledge is not incorporated and forms a contrast to the understanding of capacity building which calls for engaging individuals in the process of learning and adapting to change and for the establishment of a more interactive public administration that learns equally from its actions and from the feedback it receives. Furthermore, the contents of risk maps often do not match the requirements of the end users, so that risk maps are often designed and visualised in a way which cannot be easily understood by laypersons and/or which is not suitable for the respective needs of public authorities in risk and flood event management. The project RISK MAP aimed at improving flood risk maps as a means to foster public participation and raising flood risk awareness. For achieving this aim, RISK MAP (1) developed rules for appropriate stakeholder participation enabling the incorporation of local knowledge and preferences; (2) improved the content of risk maps by considering different risk criteria through the use of a deliberative multicriteria risk mapping tool; and (3) improved the visualisation of risk maps in order to produce user-friendly risk maps by applying the experimental graphic semiology (EGS) method that uses the eye tracking approach. The research was carried out in five European case studies where the status quo of risk mapping and the legal framework was analysed, several stakeholder interviews and workshops were conducted, the visual perception of risk maps was tested and - based on this empirical work - exemplary improved risk maps were produced. The presentation and paper will outline the main findings of the project which

  19. Modifiable risk factors of ecstasy use: risk perception, current dependence, perceived control, and depression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leung, Kit Sang; Ben Abdallah, Arbi; Cottler, Linda B.

    2009-01-01

    Risk perception, perceived behavioral control of obtaining ecstasy (PBC-obtaining), current ecstasy dependence, and recent depression have been associated with past ecstasy use, however, their utility in predicting ecstasy use has not been demonstrated. This study aimed to determine whether these four modifiable risk factors could predict ecstasy use after controlling for socio-demographic covariates and recent polydrug use. Data from 601 ecstasy users in the National Institute on Drug Abuse funded TriCity Study of Club Drug Use, Abuse and Dependence were analyzed using multivariate logistic regression. Participants were interviewed twice within a 2-week period using standardized instruments. Thirteen percent (n=80) of the participants reported using ecstasy between the two interviews. Low risk perception, high PBC-obtaining (an estimated ecstasy procurement time ecstasy dependence were statistically associated with ecstasy use between the two interviews. Recent depression was not a significant predictor. Despite not being a target predictor, recent polydrug use was also statistically associated with ecstasy use. The present findings may inform the development of interventions targeting ecstasy users. PMID:19880258

  20. A Survey of Current and Projected Ethical Dilemmas of Rehabilitation Counselors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartley, Michael T.; Cartwright, Brenda Y.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: This study surveyed current and projected ethical dilemmas of rehabilitation counselors. Method: As a mixed-methods approach, the study used both quantitative and qualitative analyses. Results: Of the 211 participants who completed the survey, 116 (55.0%) reported an ethical dilemma. Based on the descriptions, common themes involved roles…

  1. Capital Finance Decisions for project managers - A reflection on current methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Scheepers

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper evaluates some of current financial investment selection methodologies for capital projects. The proc ess (and criteria of capital investment decisions is reviewed. The capital budget for most organisations is prepared annually by a committee of senior managers who then present it for approval by the board of directors. Investment proposals are usually subjected to two financial tests, "payback" and "internal rate of return (IRR". The management committee usually decides on the tests and acceptance criteria vary according to the type of project. Some shortcomings of these most frequently used current tests (Payback & IRR are identified and it is recommended that the Net Present Value (NPV should be used as the primary method for analysing, comparing and selecting capital projects.

  2. Translational Science Project Team Managers: Qualitative Insights and Implications from Current and Previous Postdoctoral Experiences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wooten, Kevin C; Dann, Sara M; Finnerty, Celeste C; Kotarba, Joseph A

    2014-07-01

    The development of leadership and project management skills is increasingly important to the evolution of translational science and team-based endeavors. Team science is dependent upon individuals at various stages in their careers, inclusive of postdocs. Data from case histories, as well as from interviews with current and former postdocs, and those supervising postdocs, indicate six essential tasks required of project managers in multidisciplinary translational teams, along with eight skill-related themes critical to their success. To optimize the opportunities available and to ensure sequential development of team project management skills, a life cycle model for the development of translational team skills is proposed, ranging from graduate trainees, postdocs, assistant professors, and finally to mature scientists. Specific goals, challenges and project management roles and tasks are recommended for each stage for the life cycle.

  3. Development of Graphical User Interface for ARRBOD (Acute Radiation Risk and BRYNTRN Organ Dose Projection)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Myung-Hee; Hu, Shaowen; Nounu, Hatem N.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2010-01-01

    The space radiation environment, particularly solar particle events (SPEs), poses the risk of acute radiation sickness (ARS) to humans; and organ doses from SPE exposure may reach critical levels during extra vehicular activities (EVAs) or within lightly shielded spacecraft. NASA has developed an organ dose projection model using the BRYNTRN with SUMDOSE computer codes, and a probabilistic model of Acute Radiation Risk (ARR). The codes BRYNTRN and SUMDOSE, written in FORTRAN, are a Baryon transport code and an output data processing code, respectively. The ARR code is written in C. The risk projection models of organ doses and ARR take the output from BRYNTRN as an input to their calculations. BRYNTRN code operation requires extensive input preparation. With a graphical user interface (GUI) to handle input and output for BRYNTRN, the response models can be connected easily and correctly to BRYNTRN in friendly way. A GUI for the Acute Radiation Risk and BRYNTRN Organ Dose (ARRBOD) projection code provides seamless integration of input and output manipulations, which are required for operations of the ARRBOD modules: BRYNTRN, SUMDOSE, and the ARR probabilistic response model. The ARRBOD GUI is intended for mission planners, radiation shield designers, space operations in the mission operations directorate (MOD), and space biophysics researchers. The ARRBOD GUI will serve as a proof-of-concept example for future integration of other human space applications risk projection models. The current version of the ARRBOD GUI is a new self-contained product and will have follow-on versions, as options are added: 1) human geometries of MAX/FAX in addition to CAM/CAF; 2) shielding distributions for spacecraft, Mars surface and atmosphere; 3) various space environmental and biophysical models; and 4) other response models to be connected to the BRYNTRN. The major components of the overall system, the subsystem interconnections, and external interfaces are described in this

  4. Overview of Graphical User Interface for ARRBOD (Acute Radiation Risk and BRYNTRN Organ Dose Projection)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Hu, Shaowen; Nounu, Hatem N.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2010-01-01

    Solar particle events (SPEs) pose the risk of acute radiation sickness (ARS) to astronauts, because organ doses from large SPEs may reach critical levels during extra vehicular activities (EVAs) or lightly shielded spacecraft. NASA has developed an organ dose projection model of Baryon transport code (BRYNTRN) with an output data processing module of SUMDOSE, and a probabilistic model of acute radiation risk (ARR). BRYNTRN code operation requires extensive input preparation, and the risk projection models of organ doses and ARR take the output from BRYNTRN as an input to their calculations. With a graphical user interface (GUI) to handle input and output for BRYNTRN, these response models can be connected easily and correctly to BRYNTRN in a user friendly way. The GUI for the Acute Radiation Risk and BRYNTRN Organ Dose (ARRBOD) projection code provides seamless integration of input and output manipulations required for operations of the ARRBOD modules: BRYNTRN, SUMDOSE, and the ARR probabilistic response model. The ARRBOD GUI is intended for mission planners, radiation shield designers, space operations in the mission operations directorate (MOD), and space biophysics researchers. Assessment of astronauts organ doses and ARS from the exposure to historically large SPEs is in support of mission design and operation planning to avoid ARS and stay within the current NASA short-term dose limits. The ARRBOD GUI will serve as a proof-of-concept for future integration of other risk projection models for human space applications. We present an overview of the ARRBOD GUI product, which is a new self-contained product, for the major components of the overall system, subsystem interconnections, and external interfaces.

  5. Projected lifetime risks and hospital care expenditure for traumatic injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, David C; Anderson, Jamie E; Kobayashi, Leslie; Coimbra, Raul; Bickler, Stephen W

    2012-08-01

    The lifetime risk and expected cost of trauma care would be valuable for health policy planners, but this information is currently unavailable. The cumulative incidence rates methodology, based on a cross-sectional population analysis, offers an alternative approach to prohibitively costly prospective cohort studies. Retrospective analysis of the California Office of Statewide Health Planning and Development (OSHPD) database was performed for 2008. Trauma admissions were identified by ICD-9 primary diagnosis codes 800-959, with certain exclusions. Cumulative incidence rates were calculated as the cumulative summation of incidence risks sequentially across age groups. A total of 2.2 million admissions were identified, with mean age of 63.8 y, 49.6% men, 82.8% Whites, 5.7% Blacks, 11.3% Hispanics, and 3.1% Asians. The cumulative incidence rate for patients older than age 85 y was 1119 per 10,000 people, with the majority of risk in the elderly, compared with 24,325 per 10,000 people for all-cause hospitalizations. The rates were 946 for men, 1079 for women, 999 for non-Hispanic Whites, 568 for Blacks, 577 for Hispanics, and 395 for Asians, per 10,000 population. The cumulative expected hospital charge was $6538, compared with $81,257 for all-cause hospitalizations. The cumulative lifetime risk of trauma/injury requiring hospitalization for a person living to age 85 y in California is 11.2%, accounting for 4.6% of expected lifetime hospitalizations, but accounting for 8.0% of expected lifetime hospital expenditures. Risk of trauma is significant in the elderly. The total expenditure for all trauma hospitalizations in California was $7.62 billion in 2008. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Fruit flies risk analysis: Current situation and perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trade in fresh agricultural commodities involves probability of entry and establishment of exotic organisms into the importing region or country. The term "risk" includes the product of likelihood that exotic organisms will enter and become established (survive and reproduce) in the importing regio...

  7. CURRENT STATUS OF RESEARCH PROJECT ACTIVITIES IN MEDICAL UNIVERSITIES IN BULGARIA.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Svetoslav Garov

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: In Bulgaria there are five medical universities: in the cities of Sofia, Plovdiv, Varna, Pleven and Stara Zagora. Their main mission is training specialists in the fields of medicine and health care, increasing their qualification by means of postgraduate education and performing research activities. One of medical universities’ top priorities is encouraging research activities mainly aimed at preparation and implementation of research projects. Aim: The purpose of our study is to examine the current status of research project activities in Bulgarian medical universities.Material and methods: In order to define the science competitions related to Bulgarian medical universities we have applied a documentary and sociological approach. Results: Research projects that Bulgarian medical universities can apply for are divided into two groups – national and international. The most significant international projects are European ones since Bulgaria is an EU member state and this allows us to participate in such projects. Conclusion: Universities should strive for establishing even better conditions for encouraging application for research projects aimed at developing competent and experienced staff, even though the majority of them may not obtain approval for financing.The changes in the situation regarding Bulgarian science require the implementation and development of more research staff motivated to improve their knowledge and skills in the relevant dynamically changing competition and project field.

  8. Network theory-based analysis of risk interactions in large engineering projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fang, Chao; Marle, Franck; Zio, Enrico; Bocquet, Jean-Claude

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents an approach based on network theory to deal with risk interactions in large engineering projects. Indeed, such projects are exposed to numerous and interdependent risks of various nature, which makes their management more difficult. In this paper, a topological analysis based on network theory is presented, which aims at identifying key elements in the structure of interrelated risks potentially affecting a large engineering project. This analysis serves as a powerful complement to classical project risk analysis. Its originality lies in the application of some network theory indicators to the project risk management field. The construction of the risk network requires the involvement of the project manager and other team members assigned to the risk management process. Its interpretation improves their understanding of risks and their potential interactions. The outcomes of the analysis provide a support for decision-making regarding project risk management. An example of application to a real large engineering project is presented. The conclusion is that some new insights can be found about risks, about their interactions and about the global potential behavior of the project. - Highlights: ► The method addresses the modeling of complexity in project risk analysis. ► Network theory indicators enable other risks than classical criticality analysis to be highlighted. ► This topological analysis improves project manager's understanding of risks and risk interactions. ► This helps project manager to make decisions considering the position in the risk network. ► An application to a real tramway implementation project in a city is provided.

  9. Risk Identification and Assessment in PPP Infrastructure Projects using Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process and Life-Cycle Methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie Li

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available To fulfil the increasing demands of the public,Public Private Partnership (PPP has beenincreasingly used to procure infrastructureprojects, such as motor ways, bridges, tunnelsand railways. However, the risks involved inPPP projects are unique and dynamic due tolarge amount of investment and longconcession period. This paper aims to developa risk identification framework from theperspectives of project life cycle, and anassessment framework for risks associatedwith PPP project using fuzzy analyticalhierarchy process (AHP. First the paperreviews the current literature to identifycommon risks in PPP infrastructure projectsand classification methods used. The risksidentified from the literature were classifiedusing project life cycle perspectives. Followingthat, the paper presents the advantages offuzzy AHP. Furthermore, the paper provides aframework for assessment of risks in PPPprojects followed by an illustrative examplewhere the data was obtained from surveyquestionnaires. The paper concludes that risksassociated in PPP infrastructure projects areunique and therefore it is beneficial to classifythem from project life cycle perspectives, andthe proposed fuzzy AHP method is suitable forthe assessment of these risks.

  10. Research on Risk Manage of Power Construction Project Based on Bayesian Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Zhengyuan; Fan, Zhou; Li, Yong

    With China's changing economic structure and increasingly fierce competition in the market, the uncertainty and risk factors in the projects of electric power construction are increasingly complex, the projects will face huge risks or even fail if we don't consider or ignore these risk factors. Therefore, risk management in the projects of electric power construction plays an important role. The paper emphatically elaborated the influence of cost risk in electric power projects through study overall risk management and the behavior of individual in risk management, and introduced the Bayesian network to the project risk management. The paper obtained the order of key factors according to both scene analysis and causal analysis for effective risk management.

  11. [Gene doping--current possibilities, risks and means of prevention].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pleger, N; Vitzthum, K; Schöffel, N; Quarcoo, D; Uibel, S; Groneberg, D A

    2011-03-01

    With the advances in gene therapy fears of an abuse in sports arise. The WADA's definition of the term strictly differentiates between gene doping and gene therapy. There are in vivo and ex vivo practices to manipulate the different phases of gene expression in the organism, with viral vectors being looked upon as the most efficient ones. IGF-1, PPARδ, MSTN and EPO play the most important roles in today's scientific research. Their potential was proven in various animal studies, showing a significant improvement of performances. Potential risks for human users include severe immune reactions, mutagenesis, and raised risk for cancer. Big efforts are being put into the development of ways of detection, however until now there are neither practicable methods of control nor any reported cases of manipulated humans. Still, a usage of gene doping that has already taken place cannot be ruled out and is highly likely. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  12. Current estimates of radiation risks and implications for dose limits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clarke, R.H.

    1989-01-01

    The publication of the 1988 report of UNSCEAR represents a major step forward in that there is an international consensus on the estimation of risk from exposure to ionising radiation. The estimates of fatal cancers in the UNSCEAR report are up to 4 times the values in the 1977 review. This paper will describe the reasons for the increase, the remaining uncertainties and the implications for dose limits in occupational and public exposure. (author)

  13. High risk bladder cancer: current management and survival

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna M. Leliveld

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available PURPOSE: To evaluate the pattern of care in patients with high risk non muscle invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC in the Comprehensive Cancer Center North-Netherlands (CCCN and to assess factors associated with the choice of treatment, recurrence and progression free survival rates. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Retrospective analysis of 412 patients with newly diagnosed high risk NMIBC. Clinical, demographic and follow-up data were obtained from the CCCN Cancer Registry and a detailed medical record review. Uni and multivariate analysis was performed to identify factors related to choice of treatment and 5 year recurrence and progression free survival. RESULTS: 74/412 (18% patients with high risk NMIBC underwent a transurethral resection (TUR as single treatment. Adjuvant treatment after TUR was performed in 90.7% of the patients treated in teaching hospitals versus 71.8 % in non-teaching hospitals (p 80 years OR 0.1 p = 0.001 and treatment in non-teaching hospitals (OR 0.25; p < 0.001 were associated with less adjuvant treatment after TUR. Tumor recurrence occurred in 191/392 (49% and progression in 84 /392 (21.4% patients. The mean 5-years progression free survival was 71.6% (95% CI 65.5-76.8. CONCLUSION: In this pattern of care study in high risk NMIBC, 18% of the patients were treated with TUR as single treatment. Age and treatment in non-teaching hospitals were associated with less adjuvant treatment after TUR. None of the variables sex, age, comorbidity, hospital type, stage and year of treatment was associated with 5 year recurrence or progression rates.

  14. Noxious facility impact projection: Incorporating the effects of risk aversion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nieves, L.A.

    1993-01-01

    Developing new sites for noxious facilities has become a complex process with many potential pitfalls. In addition to the need to negotiate conditions acceptable to the host community, siting success may depend on the facility proposer's ability to identify a candidate site that not only meets technical requirements, but that is located in a community or region whose population is not highly averse to the risks associated with the type of facility being proposed. Success may also depend on the proposer accurately assessing potential impacts of the facility and offering an equitable compensation package to the people affected by it. Facility impact assessments, as typically performed, include only the effects of changes in population, employment and economic activity associated with facility construction and operation. Because of their scope, such assessments usually show a short-run, net economic benefit for the host region, making the intensely negative public reaction to some types and locations of facilities seem unreasonable. The impact component excluded from these assessments is the long-run economic effect of public perceptions of facility risk and nuisance characteristics. Recent developments in psychological and economic measurement techniques have opened the possibility of correcting this flaw by incorporating public perceptions in projections of economic impacts from noxious facilities

  15. Current methods in risk assessment of genotoxic chemicals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cartus, Alexander; Schrenk, Dieter

    2017-08-01

    Chemical contaminants and residues are undesired chemicals occurring in consumer products such as food and drugs, at the workplace and in the environment, i.e. in air, soil and water. These compounds can be detected even at very low concentrations and lead frequently to considerable concerns among consumers and in the media. Thus it is a major challenge for modern toxicology to provide transparent and versatile tools for the risk assessment of such compounds in particular with respect to human health. Well-known examples of toxic contaminants are dioxins or mercury (in the environment), mycotoxins (from infections by molds) or acrylamide (from thermal treatment of food). The process of toxicological risk assessment of such chemicals is based on i) the knowledge of their contents in food, air, water etc., ii) the routes and extent of exposure of humans, iii) the toxicological properties of the compound, and, iv) its mode(s) of action. In this process quantitative dose-response relationships, usually in experimental animals, are of outstanding importance. For a successful risk assessment, in particular of genotoxic chemicals, several conditions and models such as the Margin of Exposure (MoE) approach or the Threshold of Toxicological Concern (TTC) concept exist, which will be discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Modeling current climate conditions for forest pest risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank H. Koch; John W. Coulston

    2010-01-01

    Current information on broad-scale climatic conditions is essential for assessing potential distribution of forest pests. At present, sophisticated spatial interpolation approaches such as the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) are used to create high-resolution climatic data sets. Unfortunately, these data sets are based on 30-year...

  17. Using prior risk-related knowledge to support risk management decisions: lessons learnt from a tunneling project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cárdenas, Ibsen Chivatá; Al-Jibouri, Saad S H; Halman, Johannes I M; van de Linde, Wim; Kaalberg, Frank

    2014-10-01

    The authors of this article have developed six probabilistic causal models for critical risks in tunnel works. The details of the models' development and evaluation were reported in two earlier publications of this journal. Accordingly, as a remaining step, this article is focused on the investigation into the use of these models in a real case study project. The use of the models is challenging given the need to provide information on risks that usually are both project and context dependent. The latter is of particular concern in underground construction projects. Tunnel risks are the consequences of interactions between site- and project-specific factors. Large variations and uncertainties in ground conditions as well as project singularities give rise to particular risk factors with very specific impacts. These circumstances mean that existing risk information, gathered from previous projects, is extremely difficult to use in other projects. This article considers these issues and addresses the extent to which prior risk-related knowledge, in the form of causal models, as the models developed for the investigation, can be used to provide useful risk information for the case study project. The identification and characterization of the causes and conditions that lead to failures and their interactions as well as their associated probabilistic information is assumed to be risk-related knowledge in this article. It is shown that, irrespective of existing constraints on using information and knowledge from past experiences, construction risk-related knowledge can be transferred and used from project to project in the form of comprehensive models based on probabilistic-causal relationships. The article also shows that the developed models provide guidance as to the use of specific remedial measures by means of the identification of critical risk factors, and therefore they support risk management decisions. Similarly, a number of limitations of the models are

  18. The prostate cancer risk stratification (ProCaRS) project: Recursive partitioning risk stratification analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodrigues, George; Lukka, Himu; Warde, Padraig; Brundage, Michael; Souhami, Luis; Crook, Juanita; Cury, Fabio; Catton, Charles; Mok, Gary; Martin, Andre-Guy; Vigneault, Eric; Morris, Jim; Warner, Andrew; Gonzalez Maldonado, Sandra; Pickles, Tom

    2013-01-01

    Background: The Genitourinary Radiation Oncologists of Canada (GUROC) published a three-group risk stratification (RS) system to assist prostate cancer decision-making in 2001. The objective of this project is to use the ProCaRS database to statistically model the predictive accuracy and clinical utility of a proposed new multi-group RS schema. Methods: The RS analyses utilized the ProCaRS database that consists of 7974 patients from four Canadian institutions. Recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) was utilized to explore the sub-stratification of groups defined by the existing three-group GUROC scheme. 10-fold cross-validated C-indices and the Net Reclassification Index were both used to assess multivariable models and compare the predictive accuracy of existing and proposed RS systems, respectively. Results: The recursive partitioning analysis has suggested that the existing GUROC classification system could be altered to accommodate as many as six separate and statistical unique groups based on differences in BFFS (C-index 0.67 and AUC 0.70). GUROC low-risk patients would be divided into new favorable-low and low-risk groups based on PSA ⩽6 and PSA >6. GUROC intermediate-risk patients can be subclassified into low-intermediate and high-intermediate groups. GUROC high-intermediate-risk is defined as existing GUROC intermediate-risk with PSA >=10 AND either T2b/c disease or T1T2a disease with Gleason 7. GUROC high-risk patients would be subclassified into an additional extreme-risk group (GUROC high-risk AND (positive cores ⩾87.5% OR PSA >30). Conclusions: Proposed RS subcategories have been identified by a RPA of the ProCaRS database

  19. Risk management in public sector construction projects: Case ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    a project environment. Since projects are complicated, experience ... work, delays trigger cost overruns in construction projects (African. Development Bank ..... quantity surveying, contract management, and engineering. Table 4: Research ..... professionals at the business and operational levels of construction management.

  20. Evolving PBPK applications in regulatory risk assessment: current situation and future goals

    Science.gov (United States)

    The presentation includes current applications of PBPK modeling in regulatory risk assessment and discussions on conflicts between assuring consistency with experimental data in current situation and the desire for animal-free model development.

  1. Peaceful Uses Initiative (PUI) — A glimpse into current and future projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2015-01-01

    With more than 170 projects successfully supported, benefiting more than 130 Member States, the Peaceful Uses Initiative (PUI) has been an effective mechanism for raising additional resources to meet the needs of Member States. The IAEA hopes to carry on with this initiative to further expand the benefits of the peaceful uses of nuclear science and technology in promoting broad development goals. Here is a glimpse into some of the major current and future PUI-supported projects that need additional financial contributions. For more information, see: www.iaea.org/newscenter/focus/ peaceful-uses-initiative

  2. Peaceful Uses Initiative (PUI) — A glimpse into current and future projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2015-01-01

    With more than 170 projects successfully supported, benefiting more than 130 Member States, the Peaceful Uses Initiative (PUI) has been an effective mechanism for raising additional resources to meet the needs of Member States. The IAEA hopes to carry on with this initiative to further expand the benefits of the peaceful uses of nuclear science and technology in promoting broad development goals. Here is a glimpse into some of the major current and future PUI-supported projects that need additional financial contributions. For more information, see: www.iaea.org/newscenter/focus/ peaceful-uses-initiative.

  3. Peaceful Uses Initiative (PUI) — a glimpse into current and future projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2015-01-01

    With more than 170 projects successfully supported, benefiting more than 130 Member States, the Peaceful Uses Initiative (PUI) has been an effective mechanism for raising additional resources to meet the needs of Member States. The IAEA hopes to carry on with this initiative to further expand the benefits of the peaceful uses of nuclear science and technology in promoting broad development goals. Here is a glimpse into some of the major current and future PUI-supported projects that need additional financial contributions. For more information, see: www.iaea.org/newscenter/focus/ peaceful-uses-initiative.

  4. The ChimERA project: Coupling mechanistic exposure and effect models into an integrated platform for ecological risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Laender, de F.; Brink, van den P.J.; Janssen, C.R.; Guardo, Di A.

    2014-01-01

    Current techniques for the ecological risk assessment of chemical substances are often criticised for their lack of environmental realism, ecological relevance and methodological accuracy. ChimERA is a 3-year project (2013-2016), funded by Cefic's Long Range Initiative (LRI) that aims to address

  5. Acute Radiation Risk and BRYNTRN Organ Dose Projection Graphical User Interface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.; Hu, Shaowen; Nounu, Hateni N.; Kim, Myung-Hee

    2011-01-01

    The integration of human space applications risk projection models of organ dose and acute radiation risk has been a key problem. NASA has developed an organ dose projection model using the BRYNTRN with SUM DOSE computer codes, and a probabilistic model of Acute Radiation Risk (ARR). The codes BRYNTRN and SUM DOSE are a Baryon transport code and an output data processing code, respectively. The risk projection models of organ doses and ARR take the output from BRYNTRN as an input to their calculations. With a graphical user interface (GUI) to handle input and output for BRYNTRN, the response models can be connected easily and correctly to BRYNTRN. A GUI for the ARR and BRYNTRN Organ Dose (ARRBOD) projection code provides seamless integration of input and output manipulations, which are required for operations of the ARRBOD modules. The ARRBOD GUI is intended for mission planners, radiation shield designers, space operations in the mission operations directorate (MOD), and space biophysics researchers. BRYNTRN code operation requires extensive input preparation. Only a graphical user interface (GUI) can handle input and output for BRYNTRN to the response models easily and correctly. The purpose of the GUI development for ARRBOD is to provide seamless integration of input and output manipulations for the operations of projection modules (BRYNTRN, SLMDOSE, and the ARR probabilistic response model) in assessing the acute risk and the organ doses of significant Solar Particle Events (SPEs). The assessment of astronauts radiation risk from SPE is in support of mission design and operational planning to manage radiation risks in future space missions. The ARRBOD GUI can identify the proper shielding solutions using the gender-specific organ dose assessments in order to avoid ARR symptoms, and to stay within the current NASA short-term dose limits. The quantified evaluation of ARR severities based on any given shielding configuration and a specified EVA or other mission

  6. RISK MANAGEMENT IN A LARGE-SCALE NEW RAILWAY TRANSPORT SYSTEM PROJECT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sunduck D. SUH, Ph.D., P.E.

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk management experiences of the Korean Seoul-Pusan high-speed railway (KTX project since the planning stage are evaluated. One can clearly see the interplay of engineering and construction risks, financial risks and political risks in the development of the KTX project, which is the peculiarity of large-scale new railway system projects. A brief description on evaluation methodology and overview of the project is followed by detailed evaluations on key differences in risks between conventional railway system and high-speed railway system, social and political risks, engineering and construction risks, and financial risks. Risks involved in system procurement process, such as proposal solicitation, evaluation, selection, and scope of solicitation are separated out and evaluated in depth. Detailed events resulting from these issues are discussed along with their possible impact on system risk. Lessons learned and further possible refinements are also discussed.

  7. NASA's Current and Next Generation Coastal Remote Sensing Missions and Coral Reef Projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guild, Liane S.

    2015-01-01

    The LLILAS Faculty Research Initiative presents a two-day symposium, Caribbean Coral Reefs at Risk. This international symposium examines the current state and future of coral reef conservation efforts throughout the Caribbean from the perspective of government agencies, nongovernment organizations, and academia.

  8. Risk informed decisions and regulations - STUK's policy and current practice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Julin, A.; Niemalae, I.; Virolainen, R.

    2001-01-01

    Consideration of severe accidents beyond the traditional design basis, including full core melt accidents, has become an important ingredient of regulatory process in Finland. Accordingly, plant-specific level-1 and level-2 PSA studies are a regulatory requirement. These studies are being used in a living fashion both at the utilities and STUK. Plant specific living PSAs have been completed for all operating Finnish plants, including internal initiators, fires, flooding, harsh weather conditions seismic events for operation mode and internal events for low power mode. Many specific applications of the Living PSA have already been introduced but some are still waiting for further development such as Risk Informed ISI, IST and Tech Specs. Examples of safety issues, for which the PSA insights give an improved basis for decisions, are approvals of plant modifications and resolution of testing, inspection and maintenance strategies. PSA insights are also of value in assessing meaningfulness of requirements which are based on traditional engineering judgement but do not form an essential part of defence-in-depth concept. Examples of such requirements are details of safety classification and many Technical Specification requirements. STUK has recently conducted a pilot study on risk-informed ISI. The aim of the study was to explore how the plant specific PSAs could best be used for assessment of the ISI programmes. This paper discusses the findings obtained during the pilot study on risk-informed ISI of pipings. The study produced essential insights of the applied method. Furthermore, the study gave guidance to extract items for further development. Based on these results and overall experience the general suitability of the method for further application is evaluated. (author)

  9. Current knowledge on radon risk. Implications for practical radiation protection?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mueller, Wolfgang-Ulrich; Giussani, Augusto; Kreuzer, Michaela; Sobotzki, Christina; Ruehm, Werner; Lecomte, Jean-Francois; Harrison, John; Breckow, Joachim

    2016-01-01

    ICRP suggested a strategy based on the distinction between a protection approach for dwellings and one for workplaces in the previous recommendations on radon. Now, the Commission recommends an integrated approach for the protection against radon exposure in all buildings irrespective of their purpose and the status of their occupants. The strategy of protection in buildings, implemented through a national action plan, is based on the application of the optimisation principle below a derived reference level in concentration (maximum 300 Bq m -3 ). A problem, however, arises that due to new epidemiological findings and application of dosimetric models, ICRP 115 (Ann ICRP 40, 2010) presents nominal probability coefficients for radon exposure that are approximately by a factor of 2 larger than in the former recommendations of ICRP 65 (Ann ICRP 23, 1993). On the basis of the so-called epidemiological approach and the dosimetric approach, the doubling of risk per unit exposure is represented by a doubling of the dose coefficients, while the risk coefficient of ICRP 103 (2007) remains unchanged. Thus, an identical given radon exposure situation with the new dose coefficients would result in a doubling of dose compared with the former values. This is of serious conceptual implications. A possible solution of this problem was presented during the workshop. (orig.)

  10. Current knowledge on radon risk. Implications for practical radiation protection?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mueller, Wolfgang-Ulrich [Universitaetsklinikum Essen, Institut fuer Medizinische Strahlenbiologie, Essen (Germany); Giussani, Augusto; Kreuzer, Michaela; Sobotzki, Christina [Federal Office for Radiation Protection, Oberschleissheim (Germany); Ruehm, Werner [German Research Center for Environmental Health, Institute of Radiation Protection, Helmholtz Zentrum Muenchen, Neuherberg (Germany); Lecomte, Jean-Francois [International Affaires Directorate, Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire, P.O. Box 17, Fontenay-aux-Roses (France); Harrison, John [Oxford Brookes University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Oxford (United Kingdom); Breckow, Joachim [THM University of Applied Sciences, Institute of Medical Physics and Radiation Protection, Giessen (Germany)

    2016-08-15

    ICRP suggested a strategy based on the distinction between a protection approach for dwellings and one for workplaces in the previous recommendations on radon. Now, the Commission recommends an integrated approach for the protection against radon exposure in all buildings irrespective of their purpose and the status of their occupants. The strategy of protection in buildings, implemented through a national action plan, is based on the application of the optimisation principle below a derived reference level in concentration (maximum 300 Bq m{sup -3}). A problem, however, arises that due to new epidemiological findings and application of dosimetric models, ICRP 115 (Ann ICRP 40, 2010) presents nominal probability coefficients for radon exposure that are approximately by a factor of 2 larger than in the former recommendations of ICRP 65 (Ann ICRP 23, 1993). On the basis of the so-called epidemiological approach and the dosimetric approach, the doubling of risk per unit exposure is represented by a doubling of the dose coefficients, while the risk coefficient of ICRP 103 (2007) remains unchanged. Thus, an identical given radon exposure situation with the new dose coefficients would result in a doubling of dose compared with the former values. This is of serious conceptual implications. A possible solution of this problem was presented during the workshop. (orig.)

  11. Radiation quality and radiation risks - some current problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kellerer, A.M.; Hahn, K.

    1989-01-01

    The newly evaluated cancer mortality data of the atomic bomb survivors suggest substantially enhanced risk estimates, and the various factors that are involved in the change are considered. The enhanced risk estimates have already led to added restrictions in the dose limits for radiation workers, and there may be a further tightening of regulations in the future. The impending revision of the quality factors in radiation protection may, therefore, lead to practical difficulties, and a careful consideration of the various aspects involved in a revision is required. A liaison group of ICRU and ICRP has proposed a reformulation of the quality factor that is related not to the LET, but to the microdosimetric variably y. The relation leads to increased quality factors for neutrons, but also to a quality factor for γ rays of only 0.5. Alternatives are presented that relate the quality factor to LET and that retain γ- rays as the reference radiation. One option corresponds to different quality factors for γ rays and X-rays, the other option sets the quality factor for photons approximately equal to unity, irrespective of energy. (author)

  12. A Framework for Integrating Knowledge Management with Risk Management for Information Technology Projects (RiskManiT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karadsheh, Louay A.

    2010-01-01

    This research focused on the challenges experienced when executing risk management activities for information technology projects. The lack of adequate knowledge management support of risk management activities has caused many project failures in the past. The research objective was to propose a conceptual framework of the Knowledge-Based Risk…

  13. Risk Management Plan for Tank Farm Restoration and Safe Operations, Project W-314

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MCGREW, D.L.

    2000-01-01

    The Risk Management Plan for Project W-314 describes the systems, processes and procedures for implementation of applicable risk management practices described in HNF-0842, Volume IV, Section 2.6, ''Risk Management''. This plan is tailored specifically for use by Project W-314

  14. Managing dependencies in forest offset projects: toward a more complete evaluation of reversal risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    David M Cooley; Chrsitopher S Galik; Thomas P Holmes; Carolyn Kousky; Roger M Cooke

    2011-01-01

    Although forest carbon offsets can play an important role in the implementation of comprehensive climate policy, they also face an inherent risk of reversal. If such risks are positively correlated across projects, it can affect the integrity of larger project portfolios and potentially the entire offsets program. Here, we discuss three types of risks that could affect...

  15. FIDIC contracts: analysis of the impact of general and particular conditions on the financial risk management in Romanian infrastructure projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Constanţa-Nicoleta Bodea

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Construction projects are characterized by risks and uncertainties mainly due to technical and economic complexity. Risk management is an important tool in making decisions involving the identification and reduction, avoidance or transfer risk and uncertainties consequences of events that occurs during project implementation. For this reason, the objective of the contract between the beneficiary and the contractor is the allocation of risk. The distribution of risk in contracts for the execution of construction works was and is an ongoing challenge faced by parties having a significant impact on the type of contract is used. On the one hand, the beneficiaries tend to transfer to the contractors as many of the project risks and uncertainties, on the other hand, the contractors look to exploit any weakness contract, so as to reduce their impact on the expected profit. One of the most important risks assumed by the contractor by signing the contract which is also increasingly common in the current economic situation is the reduced financial capacity to support the project. A purely legal or purely technical interpretation is not meant to describe the complexity of issues related to implementation of construction projects. For this reason the authors have adopted a multi-disciplinary approach, which includes the legal issues related to the nature of the contract, but also the financial and technical aspects of construction projects. The paper aims to analyze how special contract clauses can influence the implementation of construction projects and in particular the financial management of contractors. The authors propose a model for analyzing the impact of FIDIC contract conditions applied on a case study of five transport infrastructure projects.

  16. Current Status of Fire Risk Assessment in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berg, H. P.

    2002-01-01

    The approach for fire risk assessment to be applied within periodic safety reviews of nuclear power plants in Germany starts with a screening process providing critical fire zones in which a fully developed fire has the potential to both cause an initiating event and impair the function of at least one component or system critical to safety. The second step is to perform a quantitative analysis. For that purpose, a standard event tree has been developed with elements for fire initiation, ventilation of the room, fire detection, fire suppression, and fire propagation. This standard event tree has to be adapted to each critical fire zone or room. In a final step, the fire induced frequency of initiating events, the main contributors and the calculated hazard state frequency for the fire event are determined. In order to perform a quantitative fire risk assessment, a basic data base must be established which should, e.g., include initiating frequencies, reliability data for all fire protection measures, fire barriers, etc. Detailed plant-specific information is needed on ignition sources, detection and extinguishing systems, manual fire fighting, stationary fire suppression systems. As one contributor to fire specific PSA input data, reliability data for the active fire protection measures are required for the application in the fire specific event tree analysis. These data needed to be estimated are unavailabilities per demand or failure rates per hour of plant operation for those components or systems belonging to the active fire protection means. The data on potential failures or unavailabilities per demand of the respective fire protection measures were gained from the plant specific documentation of inspection and maintenance. The assessment whether the detected findings are estimated as failures or only as deficiencies or deteriorations requires a deep insight in the plant specific operating conditions for the fire protection means and needs careful engineering

  17. Evaluating Sources of Risks in Large Engineering Projects: The Roles of Equivocality and Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leena Pekkinen

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Contemporary project risk management literature introduces uncertainty, i.e., the lack of information, as a fundamental basis of project risks. In this study the authors assert that equivocality, i.e., the existence of multiple and conflicting interpretations, can also serve as a basis of risks. With an in-depth empirical investigation of a large complex engineering project the authors identified risk sources having their bases in the situations where uncertainty or equivocality was the predominant attribute. The information processing theory proposes different managerial practices for risk management based on the sources of risks in uncertainty or equivocality.

  18. CRITICAL RADAR: TOOL AND METHODOLOGY FOR EVALUATING CURRENT PROJECTS USING MULTIPLE VARIABLES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    André M. Ferrari

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Many resources are invested in measurement processes of projects indicators without, however, give a clear view of which projects deserves the right attention at the right time. This paper proposes the use of statistics, through the analysis of multiple variables and their interrelationships, to give better basis to a critical assessment methodology of current projects used in a multinational mining company. The contribution of the research is to report the methodology called Critical Radar which is based on a graphical tool with simple operationalization that can support the decision making in complex environments, and has great flexibility across the different market scenarios and possible changes in companies guidelines. The tool has great potential to help evaluate current projects due to their characteristics of flexible use in different business areas; high degree of freedom for improvement; use of known market tool in its development; ease of viewing the results through charts and notes and user freedom to use any existing indicators in the company if complied with some statistical data quality characteristics.

  19. A review on disaster risk mitigation in the oil and gas project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodhi, N. N.; Anwar, N.; Wiguna, I. P. A.

    2018-01-01

    In addition to the very complex risks, hazards potentially lead to disasters in the oil and gas projects. These risks can certainly be anticipated with the application of risk management, but an unsystematic and ineffective implementation of risk management will still bring adverse impacts. According to the eleven risk management principles in ISO 31000:2009, the application of risk management must pay attention to all aspects, both internal and external factors. Thus, this paper aims to identify variables that could affect the disaster mitigation efforts of oil and gas projects. This research began with literature study to determine the problems of risk management in oil and gas projects, so the affecting variables as the study objectives can be specified subsequently based on the literature review as well. The variables that must be considered in the efforts of disaster risk mitigation of oil and gas project are the risk factors and sustainability aspect.

  20. Managing Risk and Uncertainty in Large-Scale University Research Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Sharlissa; Shangraw, R. F., Jr.

    2011-01-01

    Both publicly and privately funded research projects managed by universities are growing in size and scope. Complex, large-scale projects (over $50 million) pose new management challenges and risks for universities. This paper explores the relationship between project success and a variety of factors in large-scale university projects. First, we…

  1. The Role and the Effects of Risk Management in IT Projects Success

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Otniel DIDRAGA

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The success of IT projects is influenced by risk and risk management according to the existing project management literature. The paper emphasizes the role of risk management and its contribution to projects success in the existing literature. The methodology applied is based on documentary study review and analysis of the concepts used by the literature. We analyzed the literature published between 1978 and 2012 from the main IT project management journals and publications. The results are that risk management is a very important component of the project management process and it is assumed implicitly to work in favour of project success. We also performed a quantitative analysis of how risk management processes affect the subjective and objective performance of IT projects in Romanian IT companies.

  2. Microbiological risk factors in dentistry. Current status of knowledge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szymańska, Jolanta

    2005-01-01

    Dentists belong to a professional group potentially exposed to harmful biological factors which most often are infectious microorganisms, less frequently - allergenic or toxic microorganisms. The fundamental routes of spreading harmful microorganisms in a dental surgery are: blood-borne, saliva-droplet, direct contact with a patient and with infected equipment, and water-droplet infections. In this paper, the current status of knowledge on microbiological hazards in a dentist's work is presented. Groups of microorganisms, such as prions, viruses, bacteria, fungi and protozoa, to which a dentist is, or may be exposed, are discussed. Epidemiological assessment of microbiological hazards in a dentist's work was performed and the basic principles of prevention formulated. Special attention was given to microflora in dental unit waterlines, and the biofilm persisting in them, as a source of occupational hazards specific for a dentist's workplace.

  3. CONDITIONS OF SUSTAINABILITY OF INVESTMENT BUILDING PROJECTS BASED ON THE RISK MANAGEMENT CONCEPT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Morozenko Andrey Aleksandrovich

    2012-10-01

    minimization of risky situations requires reduction of the project implementation period; development of domestic methodologies and standards of project risk management tailored to the conditions of our construction industry is a relevant assignment.

  4. Current state of copper stabilizers and methodology towards calculating risk

    CERN Document Server

    Koratzinos, M

    2011-01-01

    The talk will start by reviewing the landscape: a brief mention of the results of the warm copper stabilizer measurements and the results of the splice measurements at cold will be shown. The preliminary results of the recent RRR measurements will then be presented. Then, together with the limits presented from talk no. 2, the probability of an incident will be presented for beam energies between 3.5 and 5TeV. The available methods at our disposal for addressing the limiting factors and operating at a higher energy will then be reviewed: a complete circuit qualification method coined the Thermal Amplifier can define the maximum safe energy of the LHC in case of a quench next to a defective joint. Ways of avoiding magnet quenches, another critical element of the analysis, for instance by optimizing BLM settings will then be shown. Finally, a proposal of a strategy for running at the highest possible energy compatible with a pre-defined level of risk will be presented. As a case study, the method will also be a...

  5. A mathematical model for crashing projects by considering time, cost, quality and risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amin Mahmoudi

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Employers are looking for reducing execution time and maintaining the quality of the projects that are the main objective of the projects. In this article, we focus on crashing projects by con-sidering different factors such as cost, time, quality and risk. For the proposed integer linear model, cost of conformance and cost of non-conformance are considered as parts of the costs of quality of deliverables in projects. The cost of conformance consists of the costs of training the project team, inspection and test of deliverables. The cost of non-conformance also includes costs of rework and scrap. Project risk management is one of the important aspects of the pro-jects. The present study also considers the impact of risks, which is highly applicable in projects with a high level of uncertainty. Results are presented using integer programming approach with the aim of minimizing the costs of the project.

  6. Current Approaches to the Establishment of Credit Risk Specific Provisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion Nitu

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the new Basel II and IFRS approaches is to make the operations of financial institutions more transparent and thus to create a better basis for the market participants and supervisory authorities to acquire information and make decisions. In the banking sector, a continuous debate is being led, related to the similarities and differences between IFRS approach on loan loss provisions and Basel II approach on calculating the capital requirements, judging against the classical method regarding loan provisions, currently used by the Romanian banks following the Central Bank’s regulations.Banks must take into consideration that IFRS and Basel II objectives are fundamentally different. While IFRS aims to ensure that the financial papers reflect adequately the losses recorded at each balance sheet date, the Basel II objective is to ensure that the bank has enough provisions or capital in order to face expected losses in the next 12 months and eventual unexpected losses.Consequently, there are clear differences between the objectives of the two models. Basel II works on statistical modeling of expected losses while IFRS, although allowing statistical models, requires a trigger event to have occurred before they can be used. IAS 39 specifically states that losses that are expected as a result of future events, no matter how likely, are not recognized. This is a clear and fundamental area of difference between the two frameworks.

  7. Geothermal projects funded under the NER 300 programme - current state of development and knowledge gained

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shortall, Ruth; Uihlein, Andreas

    2017-04-01

    Introduction The NER 300 programme, managed by the European Commission is one of the largest funding programmes for innovative low-carbon energy demonstration projects. NER 300 is so called because it is funded from the sale of 300 million emission allowances from the new entrants' reserve (NER) set up for the third phase of the EU emissions trading system (ETS). The programme aims to successfully demonstrate environmentally safe carbon capture and storage (CCS) and innovative renewable energy (RES) technologies on a commercial scale with a view to scaling up production of low-carbon technologies in the EU. Consequently, it supports a wide range of CCS and RES technologies (bioenergy, concentrated solar power, photovoltaics, geothermal, wind, ocean, hydropower, and smart grids). Funded projects and the role of geothermal projects for the programme In total, about EUR 2.1 billion have been awarded through the programme's 2 calls for proposals (the first awarded in December 2012, the second in July 2014). The programme has awarded around EUR 70 million funding to 3 geothermal projects in Hungary, Croatia and France. The Croatian geothermal project will enter into operation during 2017 the Hungarian in 2018, and the French in 2020. Knowledge Sharing Knowledge sharing requirements are built into the legal basis of the programme as a critical tool to lower risks in bridging the transition to large-scale production of innovative renewable energy and CCS deployment. Projects have to submit annually to the European Commission relevant knowledge gained during that year in the implementation of their project. The relevant knowledge is aggregated and disseminated by the European Commission to industry, research, government, NGO and other interest groups and associations in order to provide a better understanding of the practical challenges that arise in the important step of scaling up technologies and operating them at commercial scale. The knowledge sharing of the NER 300

  8. Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Management for Finance: Application of Real Options Method for Disaster Risk Sensitive Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    KUSDHIANTO SETIAWAN

    Full Text Available This paper discusses the application of real options analysis for a project that is in the process of construction and was affected by a natural disaster. The use of the analytical method has become a way of thinking in making decisions that should be taught to business school students. The case in this paper is based on an MBA thesis at the University of Gadjah Mada that was intended as a showcase for application of real options to address real business problems. It shows one of the strategies in mainstreaming disaster risk management in the business school that also answers the needs of businesses in the disaster-prone country.

  9. Risk management of PPP project in the preparation stage based on Fault Tree Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xing, Yuanzhi; Guan, Qiuling

    2017-03-01

    The risk management of PPP(Public Private Partnership) project can improve the level of risk control between government departments and private investors, so as to make more beneficial decisions, reduce investment losses and achieve mutual benefit as well. Therefore, this paper takes the PPP project preparation stage venture as the research object to identify and confirm four types of risks. At the same time, fault tree analysis(FTA) is used to evaluate the risk factors that belong to different parts, and quantify the influencing degree of risk impact on the basis of risk identification. In addition, it determines the importance order of risk factors by calculating unit structure importance on PPP project preparation stage. The result shows that accuracy of government decision-making, rationality of private investors funds allocation and instability of market returns are the main factors to generate the shared risk on the project.

  10. Modelling projections for the risks related with atrial fibrillation in East Asia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bai, Ying; Guo, Shi-Dong; Shantsila, Alena

    2017-01-01

    Aims: In the Far East, there has generally been low uptake of oral anticoagulants (OACs) using vitamin K antagonists (VKA, e.g. warfarin) for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation (AF), but OAC use has been increasing more recently, with the introduction of the non-vitamin K antagonist oral...... anticoagulants (NOACs). To explore the risks of ischaemic stroke (IS) and death related to AF in East Asia using modelling projections. Methods and results: We performed a modelling analysis of possible trends of IS and death rates in AF patients from the time period of only VKA use to current increasing trends....... There was an estimated annual risk reduction of 5484 ISs and 1128 deaths from 2016 to 2030, respectively. The AF population is estimated to reach 861 900 in 2050, with a reduction of 206 315 ISs and 139 353 deaths. Conclusion: This modelling analysis suggests that the transition from VKA to NOACs may greatly help...

  11. The clinical endocrinology workforce: current status and future projections of supply and demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vigersky, Robert A; Fish, Lisa; Hogan, Paul; Stewart, Andrew; Kutler, Stephanie; Ladenson, Paul W; McDermott, Michael; Hupart, Kenneth H

    2014-09-01

    Many changes in health care delivery, health legislation, and the physician workforce that affect the supply and demand for endocrinology services have occurred since the first published workforce study of adult endocrinologists in 2003. The objective of the study was to assess the current adult endocrinology workforce data and provide the first analysis of the pediatric endocrinology workforce and to project the supply of and demand for endocrinologists through 2025. A workforce model was developed from an analysis of proprietary and publicly available databases, consultation with a technical expert panel, and the results of an online survey of board-certified endocrinologists. The Endocrine Society commissioned The Lewin Group to estimate current supply and to project gaps between supply and demand for endocrinologists. A technical expert panel of senior endocrinologists provided context, clinical information, and direction. The following were measured: 1) the current adult and pediatric endocrinology workforce and the supply of and demand for endocrinologists through 2025 and 2) the number of additional entrants into the endocrinology work pool that would be required to close the gap between supply and demand. Currently there is a shortage of approximately 1500 adult and 100 pediatric full-time equivalent endocrinologists. The gap for adult endocrinologists will expand to 2700 without an increase in the number of fellows trained. An increase in the prevalence of diabetes mellitus further expands the demand for adult endocrinologists. The gap can be closed in 5 and 10 years by increasing the number of fellowship positions by 14.4% and 5.5% per year, respectively. The gap between supply and demand for pediatric endocrinologists will close by 2016, and thereafter an excess supply over demand will develop at the current rate of new entrants into the work force. There are insufficient adult endocrinologists to satisfy current and future demand. A number of proactive

  12. Projections of the current and future disease burden of hepatitis C virus infection in Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonald, Scott A; Dahlui, Maznah; Mohamed, Rosmawati; Naning, Herlianna; Shabaruddin, Fatiha Hana; Kamarulzaman, Adeeba

    2015-01-01

    The prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in Malaysia has been estimated at 2.5% of the adult population. Our objective, satisfying one of the directives of the WHO Framework for Global Action on Viral Hepatitis, was to forecast the HCV disease burden in Malaysia using modelling methods. An age-structured multi-state Markov model was developed to simulate the natural history of HCV infection. We tested three historical incidence scenarios that would give rise to the estimated prevalence in 2009, and calculated the incidence of cirrhosis, end-stage liver disease, and death, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) under each scenario, to the year 2039. In the baseline scenario, current antiviral treatment levels were extended from 2014 to the end of the simulation period. To estimate the disease burden averted under current sustained virological response rates and treatment levels, the baseline scenario was compared to a counterfactual scenario in which no past or future treatment is assumed. In the baseline scenario, the projected disease burden for the year 2039 is 94,900 DALYs/year (95% credible interval (CrI): 77,100 to 124,500), with 2,002 (95% CrI: 1340 to 3040) and 540 (95% CrI: 251 to 1,030) individuals predicted to develop decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma, respectively, in that year. Although current treatment practice is estimated to avert a cumulative total of 2,200 deaths from DC or HCC, a cumulative total of 63,900 HCV-related deaths is projected by 2039. The HCV-related disease burden is already high and is forecast to rise steeply over the coming decades under current levels of antiviral treatment. Increased governmental resources to improve HCV screening and treatment rates and to reduce transmission are essential to address the high projected HCV disease burden in Malaysia.

  13. Risk assessment in energy efficiency projects; Gerenciamento de riscos em projetos de eficiencia energetica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aragao Neto, Raymundo Moniz de

    2003-08-15

    This paper aims to present processes related to risk management in energy efficiency projects, delivered in a performance contracting basis. Introductory comments will be presented about the considered project model, emphasizing the necessity of proper processes of risk management and evaluation and their treatment according methodology developed by PMI - Project Management Institute, grouped in its publication PMBOK - Project Management Body of Knowledge. A hypothetical project will be demonstrated, but similar to the Brazilian Body of Knowledge. A hypothetical project will be demonstrated, but similar to the Brazilian market reality, as a form of illustrating the considered methodology.

  14. European seismological data exchange, access and processing: current status of the Research Infrastructure project NERIES

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giardini, D.; van Eck, T.; Bossu, R.; Wiemer, S.

    2009-04-01

    The EC Research infrastructure project NERIES, an Integrated Infrastructure Initiative in seismology for 2006-2010 has passed its mid-term point. We will present a short concise overview of the current state of the project, established cooperation with other European and global projects and the planning for the last year of the project. Earthquake data archiving and access within Europe has dramatically improved during the last two years. This concerns earthquake parameters, digital broadband and acceleration waveforms and historical data. The Virtual European Broadband Seismic Network (VEBSN) consists currently of more then 300 stations. A new distributed data archive concept, the European Integrated Waveform Data Archive (EIDA), has been implemented in Europe connecting the larger European seismological waveform data. Global standards for earthquake parameter data (QuakeML) and tomography models have been developed and are being established. Web application technology has been and is being developed to make a jump start to the next generation data services. A NERIES data portal provides a number of services testing the potential capacities of new open-source web technologies. Data application tools like shakemaps, lossmaps, site response estimation and tools for data processing and visualisation are currently available, although some of these tools are still in an alpha version. A European tomography reference model will be discussed at a special workshop in June 2009. Shakemaps, coherent with the NEIC application, are implemented in, among others, Turkey, Italy, Romania, Switzerland, several countries. The comprehensive site response software is being distributed and used both inside and outside the project. NERIES organises several workshops inviting both consortium and non-consortium participants and covering a wide range of subjects: ‘Seismological observatory operation tools', ‘Tomography', ‘Ocean bottom observatories', 'Site response software training

  15. Dose and risk assessment approach for the Fernald CERCLA D ampersand D Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Throckmorton, J.D.; Clark, T.R.; Waligora, S.J. Jr.; Haaker, R.F.

    1994-01-01

    At the Fernald Environmental Management Project (FEMP) the uranium processing facilities used from the 1952 through 1989 are near or beyond their intended design life. These current conditions present an increasing probability for future releases of hazardous substances to the environment. To support a decision by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to remediate the buildings, a dose and risk assessment was performed to determine the extent of exposure that would be associated with the controlled decontamination and dismantlement (D ampersand D) of the Fernald facilities. A conceptual risk assessment model was developed, with exposure mechanisms and associated pathways for each potential receptor. The three receptor groups were defined as: the remediation workers, other on-site workers (those not performing D ampersand D), and off-site residents. For use in the conceptual model, an airborne source term was developed through process knowledge, other historical information and data, and air sample data from within the facilities. Individual and collective doses and risks were developed for each receptor and for each population group. The risk assessment demonstrated that all exposures resulting from the action would be within the acceptable DOE administrative control level of 2.0 rem per year for occupational workers and the acceptable EPA risk range from 10 -6 to 10 -4 for the general public

  16. RISK MANAGEMENT IN THE OPERATING ACTIVITIES OF AN ENTERPRISE AND IN PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP PROJECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lech Jędrzejewski

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper is devoted to issues related to building a risk management system for businesses in the areas of operations and implementation of infrastructure projects. The article defines the concept of risk in business processes and identifies risks occurring in infrastructure projects. In the text, the principles have been presented for protection against the effects of political, contracting, environmental, ecological, product, process, operational and personnel risk.

  17. The KnowRISK project: Tools and strategies for risk communication and learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Musacchio, Gemma; Amaral Ferreira, Mónica; Falsaperla, Susanna; Piangiamore, Giovanna Lucia; Pino, Nicola Alessandro; Solarino, Stefano; Crescimbene, Massimo; Eva, Elena; Reitano, Danilo; Þorvaldsdottir, Solveig; Sousa Silva, Delta; Rupakhety, Rajesh; Sousa Oliveira, Carlos

    2016-04-01

    Damage of non-structural elements of buildings (i.e. partitions, ceilings, cladding, electrical and mechanical systems and furniture) is known to cause injuries and human losses. Also it has a significant impact on earthquake resilience and is yet being worldwide underestimated. The project KnowRISK (Know your city, Reduce seISmic risK through non-structural elements) is financed by the European Commission to develop prevention measures that may reduce non-structural damage in urban areas. Pilot areas of the project are within the three European participating countries, namely Portugal, Iceland and Italy. They were chosen because they are prone to damage level 2 and 3 (EMS-98, European Macroseismic Scale) that typically affects non-structural elements. We will develop and test a risk communication strategy taking into account the needs of households and schools, putting into practice a portfolio of best practice to reduce the most common non-structural vulnerabilities. We will target our actions to different societal groups, considering their cultural background and social vulnerabilities, and implement a participatory approach that will promote engagement and interaction between the scientific community, practitioners and citizens to foster knowledge on everyone's own neighborhoods, resilience and vulnerability. A Practical Guide for citizens will highlight that low-cost actions can be implemented to increase safety of households, meant as being the places where the most vulnerable societal groups, including children and elderly people, spend much of their time. Since our actions towards communication will include education, we will define tools that allow a clear and direct understanding of elements exposed to risk. Schools will be one of our target societal groups and their central role played at the community level will ensure spreading and strengthening of the communication process. Schools are often located in old or re-adapted buildings, formerly used for

  18. Effect of Localizer Radiography Projection on Organ Dose at Chest CT with Automatic Tube Current Modulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saltybaeva, Natalia; Krauss, Andreas; Alkadhi, Hatem

    2017-03-01

    Purpose To calculate the effect of localizer radiography projections to the total radiation dose, including both the dose from localizer radiography and that from subsequent chest computed tomography (CT) with tube current modulation (TCM). Materials and Methods An anthropomorphic phantom was scanned with 192-section CT without and with differently sized breast attachments. Chest CT with TCM was performed after one localizer radiographic examination with anteroposterior (AP) or posteroanterior (PA) projections. Dose distributions were obtained by means of Monte Carlo simulations based on acquired CT data. For Monte Carlo simulations of localizer radiography, the tube position was fixed at 0° and 180°; for chest CT, a spiral trajectory with TCM was used. The effect of tube start angles on dose distribution was investigated with Monte Carlo simulations by using TCM curves with fixed start angles (0°, 90°, and 180°). Total doses for lungs, heart, and breast were calculated as the sum of the dose from localizer radiography and CT. Image noise was defined as the standard deviation of attenuation measured in 14 circular regions of interest. The Wilcoxon signed rank test, paired t test, and Friedman analysis of variance were conducted to evaluate differences in noise, TCM curves, and organ doses, respectively. Results Organ doses from localizer radiography were lower when using a PA instead of an AP projection (P = .005). The use of a PA projection resulted in higher TCM values for chest CT (P chest CT. © RSNA, 2016 Online supplemental material is available for this article.

  19. Risk assessment framework on time impact: Infrastructure projects in soft soil during construction stage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Low, W. W.; Wong, K. S.; Lee, J. L.

    2018-04-01

    With the growth of economy and population, there is an increase in infrastructure construction projects. As such, it is unavoidable to have construction projects on soft soil. Without proper risk management plan, construction projects are vulnerable to different types of risks which will have negative impact on project’s time, cost and quality. Literature review showed that little or none of the research is focused on the risk assessment on the infrastructure project in soft soil. Hence, the aim of this research is to propose a risk assessment framework in infrastructure projects in soft soil during the construction stage. This research was focused on the impact of risks on project time and internal risk factors. The research method was Analytical Hierarchy Process and the sample population was experienced industry experts who have experience in infrastructure projects. Analysis was completed and result showed that for internal factors, the five most significant risks on time element are lack of special equipment, potential contractual disputes and claims, shortage of skilled workers, delay/lack of materials supply, and insolvency of contractor/sub-contractor. Results indicated that resources risk factor play a critical role on project time frame in infrastructure projects in soft soil during the construction stage.

  20. From risk management to uncertainty management: a significant change in project management

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Gui-jun; ZHANG Yue-song

    2006-01-01

    Starting with the meanings of the terms "risk" and "uncertainty,"" he paper compares uncertainty management with risk management in project management. We bring some doubt to the use of "risk" and "uncertainty" interchangeably in project management and deem their scope, methods, responses, monitoring and controlling should be different too. Illustrations are given covering terminology, description, and treatment from different perspectives of uncertainty management and risk management. Furthermore, the paper retains that project risk management (PRM) processes might be modified to facilitate an uncertainty management perspective,and we support that project uncertainty management (PUM) can enlarge its contribution to improving project management performance, which will result in a significant change in emphasis compared with most risk management.

  1. Proposal of a risk-factor-based analytical approach for integrating occupational health and safety into project risk evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badri, Adel; Nadeau, Sylvie; Gbodossou, André

    2012-09-01

    Excluding occupational health and safety (OHS) from project management is no longer acceptable. Numerous industrial accidents have exposed the ineffectiveness of conventional risk evaluation methods as well as negligence of risk factors having major impact on the health and safety of workers and nearby residents. Lack of reliable and complete evaluations from the beginning of a project generates bad decisions that could end up threatening the very existence of an organization. This article supports a systematic approach to the evaluation of OHS risks and proposes a new procedure based on the number of risk factors identified and their relative significance. A new concept called risk factor concentration along with weighting of risk factor categories as contributors to undesirable events are used in the analytical hierarchy process multi-criteria comparison model with Expert Choice(©) software. A case study is used to illustrate the various steps of the risk evaluation approach and the quick and simple integration of OHS at an early stage of a project. The approach allows continual reassessment of criteria over the course of the project or when new data are acquired. It was thus possible to differentiate the OHS risks from the risk of drop in quality in the case of the factory expansion project. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Research on Risk Evaluation of Transnational Power Networking Projects Based on the Matter-Element Extension Theory and Granular Computing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinying Li

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available In project management, risk assessment is crucial for stakeholders to identify the risk factors during the whole life cycle of the project. A risk evaluation index system of a transnational networking project, which provides an effective way for the grid integration of clean electricity and the sustainable development of the power industry, is constructed in this paper. Meanwhile, a combination of granular computing and order relation analysis (G1 method is applied to determine the weight of each indicator and the matter-element extension evaluation model is also employed to seek the global optimal decision during the risk assessment. Finally, a case study is given to validate the index system and evaluation model established in this paper by assessing two different investment schemes of a transnational high voltage direct current (HVDC transmission project. The result shows that the comprehensive risk level of Scheme 1 is “Low” and the level of Scheme 2 is “General”, which means Scheme 1 is better for the stakeholders from the angle of risk control. The main practical significance of this paper lies in that it can provide a reference and decision support for the government’s power sectors, investment companies and other stakeholders when carrying out related activities.

  3. Articulating current service development practices: a qualitative analysis of eleven mental health projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jun, Gyuchan Thomas; Morrison, Cecily; Clarkson, P John

    2014-01-17

    The utilisation of good design practices in the development of complex health services is essential to improving quality. Healthcare organisations, however, are often seriously out of step with modern design thinking and practice. As a starting point to encourage the uptake of good design practices, it is important to understand the context of their intended use. This study aims to do that by articulating current health service development practices. Eleven service development projects carried out in a large mental health service were investigated through in-depth interviews with six operation managers. The critical decision method in conjunction with diagrammatic elicitation was used to capture descriptions of these projects. Stage-gate design models were then formed to visually articulate, classify and characterise different service development practices. Projects were grouped into three categories according to design process patterns: new service introduction and service integration; service improvement; service closure. Three common design stages: problem exploration, idea generation and solution evaluation - were then compared across the design process patterns. Consistent across projects were a top-down, policy-driven approach to exploration, underexploited idea generation and implementation-based evaluation. This study provides insight into where and how good design practices can contribute to the improvement of current service development practices. Specifically, the following suggestions for future service development practices are made: genuine user needs analysis for exploration; divergent thinking and innovative culture for idea generation; and fail-safe evaluation prior to implementation. Better training for managers through partnership working with design experts and researchers could be beneficial.

  4. On-going activities of the EC project ''Benipa'' current status, key issues and achievements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alonso, J.

    2003-01-01

    BENIPA (Bentonite Barriers in Integrated Performance Assessment) is a research project, within the Fifth Framework Programme of the European Union, which was started on September 2000 and is has a duration of 36 months. The overall objective of BENIPA is to assess the state of the art in the treatment of bentonite barriers in Integrated Performance Assessment, evaluating the capacity and consistency of methods and data available to convincingly justify the capacity of bentonite to perform their assigned safety functions. During the first part of the project different bentonite barrier concepts have been reviewed and four reference cases have been defined for the modelling work in the project. FEP's Databases have been created and the scientific and technical bases for the analysis of bentonite barriers have been reviewed. In the second part of the project. as a step previous to modelling, an analysis of models for the mechanical, hydrological, thermal and chemical conditions is carried out, along with a review of the needs in input data. In BENIPA, calculations at process and integrated level are currently being performed among different codes to check consistency and sufficiency or complementarity for fulfilling the needs of performance assessment. However, since it is too early to present some of the results or even the individual contributions of the partners, the modelling and calculations being currently carried out by ENRESA will be advanced, just as a representative example of the work going on. This paper summarises the work already done in BENIPA and provides with illustrations of the modelling work consisting of the approach followed by ENRESA in applying three codes: CODE-BRIGHT, CORE 2D and GOLDSIM. The processes considered, simplifications adopted, limitations imposed and preliminary findings of the work are mentioned along. (author)

  5. Analyzing Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk for Complex Product Systems R&D Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhe Xu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The vast majority of the research efforts in project risk management tend to assess cost risk and schedule risk independently. However, project cost and time are related in reality and the relationship between them should be analyzed directly. We propose an integrated cost and schedule risk assessment model for complex product systems R&D projects. Graphical evaluation review technique (GERT, Monte Carlo simulation, and probability distribution theory are utilized to establish the model. In addition, statistical analysis and regression analysis techniques are employed to analyze simulation outputs. Finally, a complex product systems R&D project as an example is modeled by the proposed approach and the simulation outputs are analyzed to illustrate the effectiveness of the risk assessment model. It seems that integrating cost and schedule risk assessment can provide more reliable risk estimation results.

  6. Current status and future prospects of Japanese national project on coated conductor development and its applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiohara, Y.; Yoshizumi, M.; Izumi, T.; Yamada, Y.

    2008-09-01

    Four years of the current five-year national project since 2003 for development of coated conductors using Y-system superconductors have passed and lots of remarkable results have been achieved. In this paper, the current status and the future prospect of this project are reviewed. The current national project comprises several groups of national laboratories, universities and private companies. The group of high performance tape development, consisting of Fujikura and SRL-NCCC, has worked on the tape by PLD-REBCO superconducting tapes on the PLD-CeO 2/IBAD-GZO buffered substrates. The high product of Ic and L equal to 112,166 A m was achieved in the 368 m-304.8 A GdBCO tape whose Ic value is mostly above 350 A/cm-w. The performance under the magnetic fields was also improved up to 42 A at 3 T in a GdBCO short film with doping of ZrO 2. About 61 m long GdBCO tape with ZrO 2 doping showed a high Ic value of 220 A at self field and 30 A at 3 T. On the other hand, the other group focusing on the low production cost has worked on processes of TFA-MOD and MOCVD, etc. The extremely high Ic value of 735 A/cm-w was attained in the TFA-MOD films on PLD-CeO 2/IBAD-GZO/Hastelloy C276 substrate by means of using the effect of Ba-poor nominal composition. In the efforts for long tape production, 200 m long tapes with high Ic values of 200 A/cm-w and 205 A/cm-w were obtained by MOD-YBCO/PLD-CeO 2/IBAD-GZO/Hastelloy C276 and PLD-HoBCO on buffered NiW substrate, respectively. The Ic × L value of the MOD-derived tape was 40,000 A m, which is the highest value in the world by the MOD process. Based on the above achievements on the coated conductor process development, two new additional goals were set in the project. One is the development for the extremely low cost tape and another is the development of the basic technologies for making the electric power devices including cables, transformers, motors, current-limiters and cryocoolers. Some of the new themes already revealed the

  7. Current status and future prospects of Japanese national project on coated conductor development and its applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shiohara, Y. [Superconductivity Research Laboratory, ISTEC, Shinonome 1-10-13, Koto-ku, Tokyo 135-0062 (Japan)], E-mail: shiohara@istec.or.jp; Yoshizumi, M.; Izumi, T. [Superconductivity Research Laboratory, ISTEC, Shinonome 1-10-13, Koto-ku, Tokyo 135-0062 (Japan); Yamada, Y. [Superconductivity Research Laboratory, ISTEC, Nagoya Coated Conductor Center, 2-4-1, Mutsuno, Atsuta-ku, Nagoya 456-8587 (Japan)

    2008-09-15

    Four years of the current five-year national project since 2003 for development of coated conductors using Y-system superconductors have passed and lots of remarkable results have been achieved. In this paper, the current status and the future prospect of this project are reviewed. The current national project comprises several groups of national laboratories, universities and private companies. The group of high performance tape development, consisting of Fujikura and SRL-NCCC, has worked on the tape by PLD-REBCO superconducting tapes on the PLD-CeO{sub 2}/IBAD-GZO buffered substrates. The high product of I{sub c} and L equal to 112,166 A m was achieved in the 368 m-304.8 A GdBCO tape whose I{sub c} value is mostly above 350 A/cm-w. The performance under the magnetic fields was also improved up to 42 A at 3 T in a GdBCO short film with doping of ZrO{sub 2}. About 61 m long GdBCO tape with ZrO{sub 2} doping showed a high I{sub c} value of 220 A at self field and 30 A at 3 T. On the other hand, the other group focusing on the low production cost has worked on processes of TFA-MOD and MOCVD, etc. The extremely high I{sub c} value of 735 A/cm-w was attained in the TFA-MOD films on PLD-CeO{sub 2}/IBAD-GZO/Hastelloy C276 substrate by means of using the effect of Ba-poor nominal composition. In the efforts for long tape production, 200 m long tapes with high I{sub c} values of 200 A/cm-w and 205 A/cm-w were obtained by MOD-YBCO/PLD-CeO{sub 2}/IBAD-GZO/Hastelloy C276 and PLD-HoBCO on buffered NiW substrate, respectively. The I{sub c} x L value of the MOD-derived tape was 40,000 A m, which is the highest value in the world by the MOD process. Based on the above achievements on the coated conductor process development, two new additional goals were set in the project. One is the development for the extremely low cost tape and another is the development of the basic technologies for making the electric power devices including cables, transformers, motors, current

  8. Current status and future prospects of Japanese national project on coated conductor development and its applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shiohara, Y.; Yoshizumi, M.; Izumi, T.; Yamada, Y.

    2008-01-01

    Four years of the current five-year national project since 2003 for development of coated conductors using Y-system superconductors have passed and lots of remarkable results have been achieved. In this paper, the current status and the future prospect of this project are reviewed. The current national project comprises several groups of national laboratories, universities and private companies. The group of high performance tape development, consisting of Fujikura and SRL-NCCC, has worked on the tape by PLD-REBCO superconducting tapes on the PLD-CeO 2 /IBAD-GZO buffered substrates. The high product of I c and L equal to 112,166 A m was achieved in the 368 m-304.8 A GdBCO tape whose I c value is mostly above 350 A/cm-w. The performance under the magnetic fields was also improved up to 42 A at 3 T in a GdBCO short film with doping of ZrO 2 . About 61 m long GdBCO tape with ZrO 2 doping showed a high I c value of 220 A at self field and 30 A at 3 T. On the other hand, the other group focusing on the low production cost has worked on processes of TFA-MOD and MOCVD, etc. The extremely high I c value of 735 A/cm-w was attained in the TFA-MOD films on PLD-CeO 2 /IBAD-GZO/Hastelloy C276 substrate by means of using the effect of Ba-poor nominal composition. In the efforts for long tape production, 200 m long tapes with high I c values of 200 A/cm-w and 205 A/cm-w were obtained by MOD-YBCO/PLD-CeO 2 /IBAD-GZO/Hastelloy C276 and PLD-HoBCO on buffered NiW substrate, respectively. The I c x L value of the MOD-derived tape was 40,000 A m, which is the highest value in the world by the MOD process. Based on the above achievements on the coated conductor process development, two new additional goals were set in the project. One is the development for the extremely low cost tape and another is the development of the basic technologies for making the electric power devices including cables, transformers, motors, current-limiters and cryocoolers. Some of the new themes already

  9. Results of eddy current test for second round robin by Halden reactor project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iwai, Takashi; Souzawa, Shizuo; Miyata, Seiichi; Sakai, Haruyuki; Sakakura, Atsushi

    1986-08-01

    JMTR Hot Laboratory has executed the eddy current test of two PWR type zircaloy cladding tubes for the second round robin by Halden Reactor Project. Defects manufactured on the test specimen were revealed on a fair way to success as a function of local position, phase character and size. Influence of the fatigue crack between the two different tubes was studied through the phase angle analysis. More effort should be needed for detecting rather smaller internal defect when it was combined with external and other various type of defects. (author)

  10. Effect of dietary habits on the risk of metabolic syndrome: Yazd Healthy Heart Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarebanhassanabadi, Mohammadtaghi; Mirhosseini, Seyed Jalil; Mirzaei, Masoud; Namayandeh, Seyedeh Mahdieh; Soltani, Mohammad Hossein; Pakseresht, Mohammadreza; Pedarzadeh, Ali; Baramesipour, Zahra; Faraji, Reza; Salehi-Abargouei, Amin

    2018-04-01

    Metabolic syndrome (MetS) refers to a group of risk factors that increase the risk of cardiovascular mortality and morbidity. Dietary habits are among the most important risk factors for MetS. The current study aimed at assessing the effect of dietary habits on the risk of MetS in a 10-year follow-up study in central Iran. Cohort study. Yazd, Iran. Participants aged 20-74 years without any history of MetS, who were originally recruited for Yazd Healthy Heart Project (YHHP) during 2005-2006, were revisited during 2015-2016. At phase I of YHHP, demographic data, anthropometric measurements, five components of MetS, biochemical tests and dietary habits were evaluated; and the same data were collected in phase II. A total of 1092 participants were eligible to be included in the present study. After follow-up, the 10-year cumulative incidence of MetS was 56·1 %. After adjustment for potential confounders, increased risk of MetS (hazard ratio; 95 % CI) was found in those who did not try to control their body weight (1·57; 1·06, 2·35), did not usually eat salad (1·91; 1·22, 3·00) and added salt to their food (1·57, 1·06, 2·33). These associations were stronger in men than in the total population after subgroup analysis, but were not present in women. Dietary habits affect the risk of MetS in the Iranian population. Lifestyle interventions are needed to improve dietary habits to reduce the risk of MetS. Future studies are highly recommended to confirm our results in other populations.

  11. Risk for suicide and risk for violence: a case for separating the current violence diagnoses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, J E; Early, J A; Green, P T; Lauck, D L; Oblaczynski, C; Smochek, M R; Wright, G

    1997-01-01

    To identify accurate descriptive terms for risk for violence and risk for suicide and to provide operational definitions for these terms The Delphi technique, with two rounds, was used to differentiate the operational definitions that represent risk for suicide from those that represent risk for violence. The expert panel consisted of 23 healthcare professionals with a minimum of a master's degree. In addition to the expert panel, a control group (N = 11) participated to assess content validity. Thirty-six definitions were agreed upon for suicide, 39 for violence. These definitions represent the basic distinctions between the two behavioral manifestations.

  12. Integrating knowledge for managing risk in infrastructure projects : the case of tunnel works

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chivatá Cárdenas, Ibsen

    2012-01-01

    The objective of traditional approaches to project risk management is to identify risks that can lead to project failure and to implement effective strategies to manage them. Information on the relevant causes and conditions in which failures arise is usually required as necessary input for

  13. Students in a School Environment: A Project Focused on Family Involvement of At-Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denney, Pat

    2011-01-01

    This project examined family involvement of at risk students in mid-west communities. The purpose of this project was to study the affect of family involvement on at-risk student achievement. The redefining of the perception of America has resulted in a crisis of academic performance in the traditionally slow-changing education systems. This topic…

  14. On the Need for Rethinking Current Practice that Highlights Goal Achievement Risk in an Enterprise Context.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aven, Eyvind; Aven, Terje

    2015-09-01

    This article addresses the issue of how performance and risk management can complement each other in order to enhance the management of an enterprise. Often, we see that risk management focuses on goal achievements and not the enterprise risk related to its activities in the value chain. The statement "no goal, no risk" is a common misconception. The main aim of the article is to present a normative model for describing the links between performance and risk, and to use this model to give recommendations on how to best structure and plan the management of an enterprise in situations involving risk and uncertainties. The model, which has several novel features, is based on the interaction between different types of risk management (enterprise risk management, task risk management, and personal risk management) and a structure where the enterprise risk management overrules both the task and personal risk management. To illustrate the model we use the metaphor of a ship, where the ship is loaded with cash-generating activities and has a direction over time determined by the overall strategic objectives. Compared to the current enterprise risk management practice, the model and related analysis are founded on a new perspective on risk, highlighting knowledge and uncertainties beyond probabilities. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  15. Risk assessment of underpass infrastructure project based on IS0 31000 and ISO 21500 using fishbone diagram and RFMEA (project risk failure mode and effects analysis) method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purwanggono, Bambang; Margarette, Anastasia

    2017-12-01

    Completion time of highway construction is very meaningful for smooth transportation, moreover expected number of ownership motor vehicle will increase each year. Therefore, this study was conducted with to analyze the constraints that contained in an infrastructure development project. This research was conducted on Jatingaleh Underpass Project, Semarang. This research was carried out while the project is running, on the implementation, this project is experiencing delays. This research is done to find out what are the constraints that occur in execution of a road infrastructure project, in particular that causes delays. The method that used to find the root cause is fishbone diagram to obtain a possible means of mitigation. Coupled with the RFMEA method used to determine the critical risks that must be addressed immediately on road infrastructure project. The result of data tabulation in this study indicates that the most possible mitigation tool to make a Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) recommendations to disrupt utilities that interfere project implementation. Process of risk assessment has been carried out systematically based on ISO 31000:2009 on risk management and for determination of delayed variables, the requirements of process groups according to ISO 21500:2013 on project management were used.

  16. An Exploratory Study of the Effects of Project Finance on Project Risk Management : How the Distinguishing Attributes of Project Finance affects the Prevailing Risk Factor?

    OpenAIRE

    Chan, Ka Fai

    2011-01-01

    Project finance is a financing arrangement for projects, and it is characterised by the creation of a legally independent project company financed with non- or limited recourse loans. It is observed that the popularity of project finance is increasing in the recent decades, despite of the impact of Asian financial crisis. Especially in emerging markets, project finance is very common among the public-private partnership projects. It is possible that project finance yields some benefits in pro...

  17. Risk level project. Summary report, Norwegian Shelf, Phase 7; Risikonivaaprosjektet. Sammendragsrapport Norsk Sokkel, fase 7

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-04-15

    The project 'developments in risk level - Norwegian shelf', also known as the risk level project, was initiated by the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate in 2000. From 2004 the project has been continued by Petroleum Safety Authority Norway. The project's main objectives are to measure the effect of the health, security and environment (HSE) work in the industry, and contribute to identify the areas critical to HSE, where efforts must be made to prevent unwanted events or accidents. A summary report with results from phase 7 in the project (ml)

  18. Project risk management for development of non-utility power generators (NUGs)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lau, T.

    1990-01-01

    The growing Non-Utility Generation (NUG) industry has brought new opportunities and challenges for the insurance industry. There can be unique engineering and financial risks involved in the development of Non-Utility Power Generation projects. The use of new technologies to meet stringent environmental regulations and to improve project performance and efficiency presents new challenges to the project developers and designers. The lack of funding, resources and experience of some of these projects may create unusual risks that could result in failure or deficiency in the performance of the projects

  19. Tools and Methods for Risk Management in Multi-Site Engineering Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Mingwei; Nemes, Laszlo; Reidsema, Carl; Ahmed, Ammar; Kayis, Berman

    In today's highly global business environment, engineering and manufacturing projects often involve two or more geographically dispersed units or departments, research centers or companies. This paper attempts to identify the requirements for risk management in a multi-site engineering project environment, and presents a review of the state-of-the-art tools and methods that can be used to manage risks in multi-site engineering projects. This leads to the development of a risk management roadmap, which will underpin the design and implementation of an intelligent risk mapping system.

  20. Screening Assessment of Potential Human-Health Risk from Future Natural-Gas Drilling Near Project Rulison in Western Colorado

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daniels, Jeffrey I.; Chapman, Jenny B.

    2012-01-01

    The Project Rulison underground nuclear test was conducted in 1969 at a depth of 8,400 ft in the Williams Fork Formation of the Piceance Basin, west-central Colorado (Figure 1). The U.S. Department of Energy Office of Legacy Management (LM) is the steward of the site. Their management is guided by data collected from past site investigations and current monitoring, and by the results of calculations of expected behavior of contaminants remaining in the deep subsurface. The purpose of this screening risk assessment is to evaluate possible health risks from current and future exposure to Rulison contaminants so the information can be factored into LM's stewardship decisions. For example, these risk assessment results can inform decisions regarding institutional controls at the site and appropriate monitoring of nearby natural-gas extraction activities. Specifically, the screening risk analysis can provide guidance for setting appropriate action levels for contaminant monitoring to ensure protection of human health.

  1. Screening Assessment of Potential Human-Health Risk from Future Natural-Gas Drilling Near Project Rulison in Western Colorado

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daniels Jeffrey I.,Chapman Jenny B.

    2012-01-01

    The Project Rulison underground nuclear test was conducted in 1969 at a depth of 8,400 ft in the Williams Fork Formation of the Piceance Basin, west-central Colorado (Figure 1). The U.S. Department of Energy Office of Legacy Management (LM) is the steward of the site. Their management is guided by data collected from past site investigations and current monitoring, and by the results of calculations of expected behavior of contaminants remaining in the deep subsurface. The purpose of this screening risk assessment is to evaluate possible health risks from current and future exposure to Rulison contaminants so the information can be factored into LM's stewardship decisions. For example, these risk assessment results can inform decisions regarding institutional controls at the site and appropriate monitoring of nearby natural-gas extraction activities. Specifically, the screening risk analysis can provide guidance for setting appropriate action levels for contaminant monitoring to ensure protection of human health.

  2. Causes and remedies for the dominant risk factors in Enterprise System implementation projects: the consultants' perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lech, Przemysław

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this research was to investigate the causes of the dominant risk factors, affecting Enterprise System implementation projects and propose remedies for those risk factors from the perspective of implementation consultants. The study used a qualitative research strategy, based on e-mail interviews, semi-structured personal interviews with consultants and participant observation during implementation projects. The main contribution of this paper is that it offers viable indications of how to mitigate the dominant risk factors. These indications were grouped into the following categories: stable project scope, smooth communication supported by the project management, dedicated, competent and decision-making client team, competent and engaged consultant project manager, schedule and budget consistent with the project scope, use of methodology and procedures, enforced and enabled by the project managers, competent and dedicated consultants. A detailed description is provided for each category.

  3. The WEST project: Current status of the ITER-like tungsten divertor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Missirlian, M.; Bucalossi, J.; Corre, Y.; Ferlay, F.; Firdaouss, M.; Garin, P.; Grosman, A.; Guilhem, D.; Gunn, J.; Languille, P.; Lipa, M.; Richou, M.; Tsitrone, E.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • We presented the ITER-like W components occurred for the WEST divertor. • The main features including key elements of the design were detailed. • The main results of studies investigating the integration constraints or issues were reported. • The WEST ITER-like divertor design reached a mature stage to enable the launching of the procurement phase. - Abstract: The WEST (W – for tungsten – Environment in Steady-state Tokamak) project is an upgrade of Tore Supra from a limiter based tokamak with carbon PFCs into an X-point divertor tokamak with full-tungsten armour while keeping its long discharge capability. The WEST project will primarily offer the key capability of testing for the first time the ITER technology in real plasma environment. In particular, the main divertor (i.e. the lower divertor) of the WEST project will be based on actively cooled tungsten monoblock components and will follow as closely as possible the design and the assembling technology, foreseen for the ITER divertor units. The current design of WEST ITER-like tungsten divertor has now reached a mature stage following the 2013 WEST Final Design Review. This paper presents the key elements of the design, reports the technological requirements and reviews the main design and integration issues

  4. The WEST project: Current status of the ITER-like tungsten divertor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Missirlian, M., E-mail: marc.missirlian@cea.fr; Bucalossi, J.; Corre, Y.; Ferlay, F.; Firdaouss, M.; Garin, P.; Grosman, A.; Guilhem, D.; Gunn, J.; Languille, P.; Lipa, M.; Richou, M.; Tsitrone, E.

    2014-10-15

    Highlights: • We presented the ITER-like W components occurred for the WEST divertor. • The main features including key elements of the design were detailed. • The main results of studies investigating the integration constraints or issues were reported. • The WEST ITER-like divertor design reached a mature stage to enable the launching of the procurement phase. - Abstract: The WEST (W – for tungsten – Environment in Steady-state Tokamak) project is an upgrade of Tore Supra from a limiter based tokamak with carbon PFCs into an X-point divertor tokamak with full-tungsten armour while keeping its long discharge capability. The WEST project will primarily offer the key capability of testing for the first time the ITER technology in real plasma environment. In particular, the main divertor (i.e. the lower divertor) of the WEST project will be based on actively cooled tungsten monoblock components and will follow as closely as possible the design and the assembling technology, foreseen for the ITER divertor units. The current design of WEST ITER-like tungsten divertor has now reached a mature stage following the 2013 WEST Final Design Review. This paper presents the key elements of the design, reports the technological requirements and reviews the main design and integration issues.

  5. The IAEA international project on innovative nuclear reactors and fuel cycles (INPRO): current and future activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kupitz, J.; Depisch, F.; Kuznetsov, V.

    2004-01-01

    Upon resolutions of the IAEA General Conference in 2000, the IAEA initiated International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO). The objective of INPRO, which comprises two phases, is to support sustainable deployment and use of nuclear technology to meet the global energy needs in the next 50 years and beyond. During Phase I, work is subdivided into two sub phases. Phase 1A focused on determining user requirements in the areas of economics, environment, safety, proliferation resistance, and recommendations in the area of so-called crosscutting issues, which are legal, institutional, and infrastructure issues accompanying the deployment of nuclear power, and is targeted at developing a methodology and guidelines for the assessment of various nuclear reactor and fuel cycle concepts and approaches. Phase 1A was finalised in June 2003 with its results now available as IAEA TECDOC-1362. Phase 1B has started in July 2003. During this phase interested Member States are performing case studies to validate the INPRO methodology and, later on, to assess selected innovative nuclear energy systems using the updated INPRO methodology. In accordance with the INPRO Terms of Reference, after successful completion of Phase I, Phase II may be initiated to examine the feasibility of commencing international projects on innovative nuclear energy systems. The paper contains a description of the current and future activities of INPRO and summarizes the outcome of the project.(author)

  6. Two Stage Fuzzy Methodology to Evaluate the Credit Risks of Investment Projects

    OpenAIRE

    O. Badagadze; G. Sirbiladze; I. Khutsishvili

    2014-01-01

    The work proposes a decision support methodology for the credit risk minimization in selection of investment projects. The methodology provides two stages of projects’ evaluation. Preliminary selection of projects with minor credit risks is made using the Expertons Method. The second stage makes ranking of chosen projects using the Possibilistic Discrimination Analysis Method. The latter is a new modification of a well-known Method of Fuzzy Discrimination Analysis.

  7. Technical support to the Solvent Refined Coal (SRC) demonstration projects: assessment of current research and development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edwards, M.S.; Rodgers, B.R.; Brown, C.H.; Carlson, P.K.; Gambill, W.R.; Gilliam, T.M.; Holmes, J.M.; Krishnan, R.P.; Parsly, L.F.

    1980-12-01

    A program to demonstrate Solvent Refined Coal (SRC) technology has been initiated by the US Department of Energy (DOE) in partnership with two industrial groups. Project management responsibility has been assigned to the Oak Ridge Operations Office (ORO) of DOE. ORO requested that the Oak Ridge National Laboratory assess current research and development (R and D) activities and develop recommendations for those activities that might contribute to successful completion of the SRC demonstration plant projects. The objectives of this final report are to discuss in detail the problem areas in SRC; to discuss the current and planned R and D investigations relevant to the problems identified; and to suggest appropriate R and D activities in support of designs for the SRC demonstration plants. Four types of R and D activities are suggested: continuation of present and planned activities; coordination of activities and results, present and proposed; extension/redirection of activities not involving major equipment purchase or modifications; and new activities. Important examples of the first type of activity include continuation of fired heater, slurry rheology, and slurry mixing studies at Ft. Lewis. Among the second type of activity, coordination of data acquisition and interpretation is recommended in the areas of heat transfer, vapor/liquid equilibria, and physical properties. Principal examples of recommendations for extension/redirection include screening studies at laboratory scale on the use of carbonaceous precoat (e.g., anthracite) infiltration, and 15- to 30-day continuous tests of the Texaco gasifier at the Texaco Montebello facility (using SRC residues).

  8. Reviews on current carbon emission reduction technologies and projects and their feasibilities on ships

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Haibin; Zhou, Peilin; Wang, Zhongcheng

    2017-06-01

    Concern about global climate change is growing, and many projects and researchers are committed to reducing greenhouse gases from all possible sources. International Maritime (IMO) has set a target of 20% CO2 reduction from shipping by 2020 and also presented a series of carbon emission reduction methods, which are known as Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI) and Energy Efficiency Operation Indicator (EEOI). Reviews on carbon emission reduction from all industries indicate that, Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is an excellent solution to global warming. In this paper, a comprehensive literature review of EEDI and EEOI and CCS is conducted and involves reviewing current policies, introducing common technologies, and considering their feasibilities for marine activities, mainly shipping. Current projects are also presented in this paper, thereby illustrating that carbon emission reduction has been the subject of attention from all over the world. Two case ship studies indicate the economic feasibility of carbon emission reduction and provide a guide for CCS system application and practical installation on ships.

  9. Review of Project SAFE: Comments on biosphere conceptual model description and risk assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klos, Richard; Wilmot, Roger [Galson Sciences Ltd (United Kingdom)

    2002-09-01

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company's (SKB's) most recent assessment of the safety of the Forsmark repository for low-level and intermediate-level waste (Project SAFE) is currently undergoing review by the Swedish regulators. As part of its review, the Swedish Radiation Protection Institute (SSI) identified that two components of SAFE require more detailed review: (i) the conceptual model description of the biosphere system, and (ii) SKB's risk assessment methodology. We have reviewed the biosphere system interaction matrix and how this has been used in the identification, justification and description of biosphere models for radiological assessment purposes. The risk assessment methodology has been reviewed considering in particular issues associated with scenario selection, assessment timescale, and the probability and risk associated with the well scenario. There is an extensive range of supporting information on which biosphere modelling in Project SAFE is based. However, the link between this material and the biosphere models themselves is not clearly set out. This leads to some contradictions and mis-matches between description and implementation. One example concerns the representation of the geosphere-biosphere interface. The supporting description of lakes indicates that interaction between groundwaters entering the biosphere through lake bed sediments could lead to accumulations of radionuclides in sediments. These sediments may become agricultural areas at some time in the future. In the numerical modelling of the biosphere carried out in Project SAFE, the direct accumulation of contaminants in bed sediments is not represented. Application of a more rigorous procedure to ensure numerical models are fit for purpose is recommended, paying more attention to issues associated with the geosphere-biosphere interface. A more structured approach to risk assessment would be beneficial, with a better explanation of the difference

  10. Review of Project SAFE: Comments on biosphere conceptual model description and risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klos, Richard; Wilmot, Roger

    2002-09-01

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company's (SKB's) most recent assessment of the safety of the Forsmark repository for low-level and intermediate-level waste (Project SAFE) is currently undergoing review by the Swedish regulators. As part of its review, the Swedish Radiation Protection Institute (SSI) identified that two components of SAFE require more detailed review: (i) the conceptual model description of the biosphere system, and (ii) SKB's risk assessment methodology. We have reviewed the biosphere system interaction matrix and how this has been used in the identification, justification and description of biosphere models for radiological assessment purposes. The risk assessment methodology has been reviewed considering in particular issues associated with scenario selection, assessment timescale, and the probability and risk associated with the well scenario. There is an extensive range of supporting information on which biosphere modelling in Project SAFE is based. However, the link between this material and the biosphere models themselves is not clearly set out. This leads to some contradictions and mis-matches between description and implementation. One example concerns the representation of the geosphere-biosphere interface. The supporting description of lakes indicates that interaction between groundwaters entering the biosphere through lake bed sediments could lead to accumulations of radionuclides in sediments. These sediments may become agricultural areas at some time in the future. In the numerical modelling of the biosphere carried out in Project SAFE, the direct accumulation of contaminants in bed sediments is not represented. Application of a more rigorous procedure to ensure numerical models are fit for purpose is recommended, paying more attention to issues associated with the geosphere-biosphere interface. A more structured approach to risk assessment would be beneficial, with a better explanation of the difference between

  11. AHP-based risk analysis of energy performance contracting projects in Russia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garbuzova-Schlifter, Maria; Madlener, Reinhard

    2016-01-01

    Understanding and properly managing risks that could potentially affect the target- and performance-based profits of energy performance contracting (EPC) projects are essential. It is particularly important for the establishment and success of energy service companies (ESCOs) acting in the vulnerable environment of the vast but highly energy-inefficient Russian market. This study systematically explores common risk factors and causes of risk associated with EPC projects executed in three Russian sectors: (1) industrial; (2) housing and communal services; and (3) public. Several interviews with the Russian EPC experts were accomplished and a qualitative risk assessment by using an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) approach. The data were obtained from a web-based questionnaire survey conducted among Russian EPC project executors. For each focus sector, a specific preference-based ranking of the identified risk factors and causes of risk was derived. The AHP results show that causes of risk related to the financial and regulatory aspects contribute most to the riskiness of EPC projects performed in all three focus sectors in Russia, calling for the special attention of EPC policy- and business-makers. Due to sectorial particularities and different actors involved, we conclude that there is a need for elaboration of sector-specific contractual schemes for EPC projects. - Highlights: • AHP- and survey-based study of energy performance contracting (EPC) projects in Russia. • Main risk factors and causes of risk associated with EPC projects are investigated. • In practice, lack of a feasible risk management approach in EPC projects. • Regulatory and financial risks contribute most to the EPC projects’ riskiness. • Elaboration of the sector-specific EPC project contractual scheme is required.

  12. Study On Risk Handling Strategy Of Road Contruction Projects In Jayapura City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irianto

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Project risk is an event or an uncertain condition which if it appears will have a threat on the project object. Many contractors still do not understand the threats that occur in the project they still assume that risks are always harmful. Based on data from the Papua Public Works procurement service that the implementation of road improvement projects always faces problems. This research is an explorative and descriptive study which explores the risks threats that occur in the project from the contractors perspective in Jayapura Papua Province Indonesia. The object of this research is the company contractor involved in the implementation of road improvement project in Jayapura whereas the respondent is the project manager and the field supervisor involved in the implementation of road improvement project The analysis result shows that the overall level of risk is in very low category and the biggest risks affecting contractors in sequence are 1 material delays from suppliers 2 material inventories 3 design difficulties 4 incorrectly shipped material volumes 5 changes to specifications by the owner 6 difficulty in obtaining materials and equipment 7 material price increases 8 over quality 9 damage to machine tools 10 weakening the bearing capacity of subgrade soil. While the response to risks threats that occur in road improvement projects is to reduce and avoid.

  13. Safety risk assessment using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) during planning and budgeting of construction projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aminbakhsh, Saman; Gunduz, Murat; Sonmez, Rifat

    2013-09-01

    The inherent and unique risks on construction projects quite often present key challenges to contractors. Health and safety risks are among the most significant risks in construction projects since the construction industry is characterized by a relatively high injury and death rate compared to other industries. In construction project management, safety risk assessment is an important step toward identifying potential hazards and evaluating the risks associated with the hazards. Adequate prioritization of safety risks during risk assessment is crucial for planning, budgeting, and management of safety related risks. In this paper, a safety risk assessment framework is presented based on the theory of cost of safety (COS) model and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The main contribution of the proposed framework is that it presents a robust method for prioritization of safety risks in construction projects to create a rational budget and to set realistic goals without compromising safety. The framework provides a decision tool for the decision makers to determine the adequate accident/injury prevention investments while considering the funding limits. The proposed safety risk framework is illustrated using a real-life construction project and the advantages and limitations of the framework are discussed. Copyright © 2013 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. The development of stochastic process modeling through risk analysis derived from scheduling of NPP project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Kwang Ho; Roh, Myung Sub

    2013-01-01

    There are so many different factors to consider when constructing a nuclear power plant successfully from planning to decommissioning. According to PMBOK, all projects have nine domains from a holistic project management perspective. They are equally important to all projects, however, this study focuses mostly on the processes required to manage timely completion of the project and conduct risk management. The overall objective of this study is to let you know what the risk analysis derived from scheduling of NPP project is, and understand how to implement the stochastic process modeling through risk management. Building the Nuclear Power Plant is required a great deal of time and fundamental knowledge related to all engineering. That means that integrated project scheduling management with so many activities is necessary and very important. Simulation techniques for scheduling of NPP project using Open Plan program, Crystal Ball program, and Minitab program can be useful tools for designing optimal schedule planning. Thus far, Open Plan and Monte Carlo programs have been used to calculate the critical path for scheduling network analysis. And also, Minitab program has been applied to monitor the scheduling risk. This approach to stochastic modeling through risk analysis of project activities is very useful for optimizing the schedules of activities using Critical Path Method and managing the scheduling control of NPP project. This study has shown new approach to optimal scheduling of NPP project, however, this does not consider the characteristic of activities according to the NPP site conditions. Hence, this study needs more research considering those factors

  15. The development of stochastic process modeling through risk analysis derived from scheduling of NPP project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Kwang Ho; Roh, Myung Sub [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-10-15

    There are so many different factors to consider when constructing a nuclear power plant successfully from planning to decommissioning. According to PMBOK, all projects have nine domains from a holistic project management perspective. They are equally important to all projects, however, this study focuses mostly on the processes required to manage timely completion of the project and conduct risk management. The overall objective of this study is to let you know what the risk analysis derived from scheduling of NPP project is, and understand how to implement the stochastic process modeling through risk management. Building the Nuclear Power Plant is required a great deal of time and fundamental knowledge related to all engineering. That means that integrated project scheduling management with so many activities is necessary and very important. Simulation techniques for scheduling of NPP project using Open Plan program, Crystal Ball program, and Minitab program can be useful tools for designing optimal schedule planning. Thus far, Open Plan and Monte Carlo programs have been used to calculate the critical path for scheduling network analysis. And also, Minitab program has been applied to monitor the scheduling risk. This approach to stochastic modeling through risk analysis of project activities is very useful for optimizing the schedules of activities using Critical Path Method and managing the scheduling control of NPP project. This study has shown new approach to optimal scheduling of NPP project, however, this does not consider the characteristic of activities according to the NPP site conditions. Hence, this study needs more research considering those factors.

  16. Decision Model on Financing a Project Using Knowledge about Risk Areas

    OpenAIRE

    Ioana POPOVICI; Emil SCARLAT; Francesco RIZZO

    2011-01-01

    The research presents an alternative to the classical method of measuring financial risk in funding a project. The goal of the model described in the paper implies identifying "risky areas" within the financial balance of the project. The model analysis the financial risk behavior studied along four scenarios by varying only the cost of financing source used according to the specific type of funding. The model introduces the time factor into the analysis of financial risk due to the specific ...

  17. Java project on periodontal diseases. The natural development of periodontitis: risk factors, risk predictors and risk determinants : risk factors, risk predictors and risk determinants

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van der Velden, U.; Abbas, F.; Armand, S.; Loos, B. G.; Timmerman, M. F.; Van der Weijden, G. A.; Van Winkelhoff, A. J.; Winkel, E. G.

    Objective: To identify risk factors, risk predictors and risk determinants for onset and progression of periodontitis. Material and Methods: For this longitudinal, prospective study all subjects in the age range 15-25 years living in a village of approximately 2000 inhabitants at a tea estate on

  18. HUD INFORMATION SYSTEMS: Immature Software Acquisition Capability Increases Project Risks

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2001-01-01

    .... GAO has designated HUD's major program areas as high risk, in part because the department's information and financial management systems were poorly integrated, ineffective, and generally unreliable...

  19. Is cardiovascular risk in women with PCOS a real risk? Current insights.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papadakis, Georgios; Kandaraki, Eleni; Papalou, Olga; Vryonidou, Andromachi; Diamanti-Kandarakis, Evanthia

    2017-12-01

    Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is the most common endocrine disorder in reproductive aged women. PCOS incorporates not only symptoms related to the reproductive system but also a clustering of systemic metabolic abnormalities that are linked with increased risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD). More specifically, metabolic aberrations such as impaired glucose and lipid metabolism, accompanied by increased low-grade inflammation as well as elevated coagulation factors appear to contribute to the increased cardiovascular risk. Even though many studies have indicated a rise in surrogate biomarkers of CVD in women with PCOS, it is still doubtful to what extent and magnitude this elevation can be translated to real cardiovascular events. Furthermore, the cardiovascular risk factors appear to vary significantly in the different phenotypes of the syndrome. Women with PCOS have the potential for early atherosclerosis, myocardial and endothelial dysfunction. Whether PCOS women are at real cardiovascular risk compared to controls remains between the verge of theoretical and real threat for the PCOS women at any age but particularly in the post-menopausal state. Interestingly, although the presence of the CVD risk factors is well documented in PCOS women, their combination on different phenotypes may play a role, which eventually results in a spectrum of clinical manifestations of CVD with variable degree of severity. The present manuscript aims to review the interaction between PCOS and the combination of several cardiovascular risk factors.

  20. Implications of commodity price risk and operating leverage on petroleum project economic evaluations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salahor, G.; Laughton, D.G.

    1999-01-01

    The modern asset pricing method, MAP, can provide businesses with improved tools for economic analysis. This in turn leads to greater precision in the analysis of the effects of the following parameters: project structure, time, and uncertainty. This greater precision with MAP extends to analysis of the possibility for active control of the decision alternatives for managers in the petroleum business, especially where this possibility is not questioned. A methodology is developed as a model that quantifies revenue risk based on the nature of commodity price volatility and the accepted price of risk in the commodity market. A mathematical description is included of a natural gas log-normal distribution incorporating the annual volatility in the forecast, and a measure of the rate at which volatility decreases in the long run in the forecast. Give this volatility model, a risk discount factor is determinable and applicable to the current expectation of the commodity prices at a given time, and a discount time factor of all parts of the cash flow stream. Cases are used to evaluate a natural gas development project for the purpose of yielding scenarios for capital vs. operating cost trade-offs, price risk management, production profile, and the effect of the reverting vs. non-reverting price model. In application one, a comparison is made of discounted cash flow (DCF) to MAP evaluations giving a perspective on the various development choices which a producer has through third-party service providers. Further, an example is used to compare the two methods as alternative evaluations of development alternatives to speed up or slow down the production rate and decline profile of a gas field. As in the first example, the DCF discounting is higher than the net discounting in the MAP evaluation. But in this example both methods produce the same project structure decision. The small amount of incremental capital and operating costs needed for the higher production case are

  1. Current Efforts in European Projects to Facilitate the Sharing of Scientific Observation Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bredel, Henning; Rieke, Matthes; Maso, Joan; Jirka, Simon; Stasch, Christoph

    2017-04-01

    This presentation is intended to provide an overview of currently ongoing efforts in European projects to facilitate and promote the interoperable sharing of scientific observation data. This will be illustrated through two examples: a prototypical portal developed in the ConnectinGEO project for matching available (in-situ) data sources to the needs of users and a joint activity of several research projects to harmonise the usage of the OGC Sensor Web Enablement standards for providing access to marine observation data. ENEON is an activity initiated by the European ConnectinGEO project to coordinate in-situ Earth observation networks with the aim to harmonise the access to observations, improve discoverability, and identify/close gaps in European earth observation data resources. In this context, ENEON commons has been developed as a supporting Web portal for facilitating discovery, access, re-use and creation of knowledge about observations, networks, and related activities (e.g. projects). The portal is based on developments resulting from the European WaterInnEU project and has been extended to cover the requirements for handling knowledge about in-situ earth observation networks. A first prototype of the portal was completed in January 2017 which offers functionality for interactive discussion, information exchange and querying information about data delivered by different observation networks. Within this presentation, we will introduce the presented prototype and initiate a discussion about potential future work directions. The second example concerns the harmonisation of data exchange in the marine domain. There are many organisation who operate ocean observatories or data archives. In recent years, the application of the OGC Sensor Web Enablement (SWE) technology has become more and more popular to increase the interoperability between marine observation networks. However, as the SWE standards were intentionally designed in a domain independent manner

  2. Recovery Act: Hydroelectric Facility Improvement Project - Replacement of Current Mechanical Seal System with Rope Packing System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stephens, Jessica D.

    2013-05-29

    On January 27, 2010 the City of North Little Rock, Arkansas received notification of the awarding of a Department of Energy (DOE) grant totaling $450,000 in funding from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) under the Project Title: Recovery Act: Hydroelectric Facility Improvement Project – Automated Intake Clearing Equipment and Materials Management. The purpose of the grant was for improvements to be made at the City’s hydroelectric generating facility located on the Arkansas River. Improvements were to be made through the installation of an intake maintenance device (IMD) and the purchase of a large capacity wood grinder. The wood grinder was purchased in order to receive the tree limbs, tree trunks, and other organic debris that collects at the intake of the plant during high flow. The wood grinder eliminates the periodic burning of the waste material that is cleared from the intake and reduces any additional air pollution to the area. The resulting organic mulch has been made available to the public at no charge. Design discussion and planning began immediately and the wood grinder was purchased in July of 2010 and immediately put to work mulching debris that was gathered regularly from the intake of the facility. The mulch is currently available to the public for free. A large majority of the design process was spent in discussion with the Corps of Engineers to obtain approval for drawings, documents, and permits that were required in order to make changes to the structure of the powerhouse. In April of 2011, the City’s Project Engineer, who had overseen the application, resigned and left the City’s employ. A new Systems Mechanical Engineer was hired and tasked with overseeing the project. The transfer of responsibility led to a re-examination of the original assumptions and research upon which the grant proposal was based. At that point, the project went under review and a trip was booked for July 2011 to visit facilities that currently

  3. Safeguards as catastrophic risk management: insights and projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leffer, T.N.

    2013-01-01

    The system of international agreements designed to prevent the use of nuclear weapons and to control the spread of nuclear weapons, materials and technologies (collectively referred to as the nuclear arms control and nonproliferation regimes) is posited as humanity.s first attempt to mitigate a man-made global catastrophic risk. By extrapolating general principles of government response to risk from the arms control and nonproliferation regimes, a model of international regime building for catastrophic risk mitigation is constructed. This model provides the context for an examination of the system of safeguards implemented by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which serves as the nuclear nonproliferation regime.s verification and enforcement mechanism and thereby constitutes the regime's most completely developed discrete mechanism for risk mitigation (a 'system within a system'). An assessment of the history, evolution and effectiveness of the IAEA safeguards system in the context of the regimes-as-risk-mitigation model reveals some general principles for risk-mitigation regimes which are then applied to the safeguards system to identify ways in which it may be strengthened. Finally, the IAEA safeguards system is posited as the prototype verification/enforcement mechanism for future risk mitigation regimes that governments will be compelled to create in the face of new global catastrophic risks that technological advance will inevitably create. (author)

  4. Evaluating the Investment Benefit of Multinational Enterprises' International Projects Based on Risk Adjustment: Evidence from China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Chong

    2016-01-01

    This study examines the international risks faced by multinational enterprises to understand their impact on the evaluation of investment projects. Moreover, it establishes a 'three-dimensional' theoretical framework of risk identification to analyse the composition of international risk indicators of multinational enterprises based on the theory…

  5. Child injuries in Ethiopia: A review of the current situation with projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Qingfeng; Alonge, Olakunle; Lawhorn, Collene; Ambaw, Yirga; Kumar, Smita; Jacobs, Troy; Hyder, Adnan A

    2018-01-01

    Heavy burden of child injuries and lack of policy response in Ethiopia call for an improved understanding of the situation and development of action plans from multiple governmental agencies and stakeholders. A consortium of international and Ethiopian researchers and stakeholders used extensive literature review and mixed analytical methods to estimate and project the burden of fatal and non-fatal child unintentional injuries in Ethiopia from 2015 to 2030. Estimates were derived for children aged 0-14 years. Data sources include a longitudinal study conducted by the Central Statistics Agency of Ethiopia and the World Bank as well as model-based estimates from World Health Organization 2017 and Global Burden of Disease 2016 project. Injuries caused about 25 thousand deaths among 0-14-year olds in Ethiopia in 2015. The leading cause of fatal child unintentional injuries in Ethiopia was road-traffic injuries, followed by fire, heat and hot substances and drowning. The death rate due to injuries among 0-14 years olds was about 50 percent higher in males than females. Rural children were exposed to a greater risk of injury than their urban peers. The longitudinal survey suggests that the incidence rate of child injuries increased during the period 2011-2014. The annual mortality caused by injuries is projected to increase from 10,697 in 2015 to 11,279 in 2020 and 11,989 in 2030 among children under 5 years, an increase of 12 percentage points in 15 years. The number of deaths among 0-14-year olds will be 26,463, 27,807, and 30,364 respectively in 2015, 2020, and 2030. As the first multisectoral collaboration on child injuries in Ethiopia, this study identified gaps in understanding of the burden of child injuries in Ethiopia. In consultation with Ethiopian government and other stakeholders, we propose starting an injury surveillance system at health clinics and hospitals and building an intervention package based on existing platforms.

  6. Influence of the Risk-Contributing Factors on the Financing of the Investment Project for Building of Intelligent Buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Voytolovskiy Nikolay

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This article provides the generic classification of risks of the investment projects for the construction of intelligent buildings which differ by the detachment of the subjective perception of risk by the investor. Risk and uncertainty were justified as system characteristics of the investment projects for the construction of intelligent buildings. Characteristics of the development was given in the context of project management. Methodical schemes of the development of the investment project risks were specified on the basis of interconnection of risk and project effectiveness. Risk management procedure at realization of the developer project was developed.

  7. A review of risk management process in construction projects of developing countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bahamid, R. A.; Doh, S. I.

    2017-11-01

    In the construction industry, risk management concept is a less popular technique. There are three main stages in the systematic approach to risk management in construction industry. These stages include: a) risk response; b) risk analysis and evaluation; and c) risk identification. The high risk related to construction business affects each of its participants; while operational analysis and management of construction related risks remain an enormous task to practitioners of the industry. This paper tends towards reviewing the existing literature on construction project risk managements in developing countries specifically on risk management process. The literature lacks ample risk management process approach capable of capturing risk impact on diverse project objectives. This literature review aims at discovering the frequently used techniques in risk identification and analysis. It also attempts to identify response to clarifying the different classifications of risk sources in the existing literature of developing countries, and to identify the future research directions on project risks in the area of construction in developing countries.

  8. Meeting CCS communication challenges head-on: Integrating communications, planning, risk assessment, and project management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenberg, S.; Gauvreau, L.; Hnottavange-Telleen, K.; Finley, R.; Marsteller, S.

    2011-01-01

    The Midwest Geological Sequestration Consortium, Schlumberger Carbon Services, and Archer Daniels Midland has implemented a comprehensive communications plan at the Illinois Basin - Decatur Project (IBDP), a one million metric tonne Carbon Capture and Storage project in Decatur, IL, USA funded by the U.S. Department of Energy's National Energy Technology Laboratory. The IBDP Communication Plan includes consortium information, funding and disclaimer citations, description of target audiences, media communications guidelines, paper and presentations guidelines, site visit information, crisis communication, on-site photography regulations, and other components. The creation, development, and implementation processes for the IBDP Communication Plan (the Plan) are shared in this paper. New communications challenges, such as how to address add-on research requests, data sharing and management, scope increase, and contract agreements have arisen since the Plan was completed in January 2009, resulting in development of new policies and procedures by project management. Integrating communications planning, risk assessment, and project management ensured that consistent, factual information was developed and incorporated into project planning, and constitutes the basis of public communications. Successful integration has allowed the IBDP to benefit from early identification and mitigation of the potential project risks, which allows more time to effectively deal with unknown and unidentified risks that may arise. Project risks and risks associated with public perception can be managed through careful planning and integration of communication strategies into project management and risk mitigation. ?? 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  9. A prospective radiological risk assessment for a phosphate industry project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lauria, Dejanira C.; Reis, Rocio G., E-mail: dejanira@ird.gov.br, E-mail: rocio@ird.gov.br

    2012-07-01

    The Santa Quiteria Project is the major Brazilian uranium mine project, nowadays. A peculiarity of this project is the association of uranium with phosphate and the mining and processing of both by two different enterprises. A private company will be responsible for the production of phosphoric acid and a state owned company will be responsible for the production of yellow cake. At full capacity, the facility will generate 10% of Brazil's total annual phosphoric acid production and 1,500 tons of yellow cake per year. The processing by which phosphoric acid is produced generates phosphogypsum (PG) as a by-product. The ratio of phosphogypsum to phosphoric acid is around 5 to 1. After all the phosphate has been extracted and processed, it is expected that some 37 million tons of phosphogypsum with 13 Bq/g of {sup 226}Ra will be produced. A prospective generic assessment was carried out for evaluating the potential radioactive impact of this PG stack on the workers and surrounding inhabitants. Two hypothetical farmer scenarios were designed to estimate the potential dose out of the project boundary and over the stack piles, after the shutdown of the project. The annual exposure dose of workers was also evaluated. As a result, the potential public and worker doses exceeded the adopted level of doses of 1mSv.y{sup -1} and 6 mSv.y{sup -1}, respectively. The simulation spotlighted the importance of the rainfall erosion index, and consequently the stack shape for the environmental contamination. The importance of planning the decommissioning of the facility still in the planning phase of the project to give support for the feasibility studies was also highlighter. Although quite conservative, the prospective assessing of dose herein is useful to aware and guide the decision makers on information and data survey and taking avoiding action to protect the health, by changing the project in some way. (author)

  10. Current Status of the LOFAR EoR Key Science Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koopmans, L. V. E.; LOFAR EoR KSP Team

    2018-05-01

    A short status update on the LOFAR Epoch of Reionization (EoR) Key Science Project (KSP) is given, regarding data acquisition, data processing and analysis, and current power-spectrum limits on the redshifted 21-cm signal of neutral hydrogen at redshifts z = 8 - 10. With caution, we present a preliminary astrophysical analysis of ~60 hr of processed LOFAR data and their resulting power spectrum, showing that potentially already interesting limits on X-ray heating during the Cosmic Dawn can already be gained. This is by no means the final analysis of this sub-set of data, but illustrates the future potential when all nearly 3000 hr of data in hand on two EoR windows will have been processed.

  11. Current status on advanced aqueous reprocessing process (next) in FaCT project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Washiya, Tadahiro; Myochin, Munetaka; Koyama, Tomozo

    2009-01-01

    Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) launched the Fast Reactor Cycle Technology Development (FaCT) project in cooperation with the Japanese electric utilities in 2006. An integration of the advanced aqueous reprocessing concept and the simplified pelletizing fuel fabrication was selected as the most promising fuel cycle system. In order to accomplish the integration, R and D tasks were launched as FaCT Project in 2006 by Japanese joint team. The New Extraction System for TRU Recovery (NEXT) system is an advanced aqueous reprocessing concept which was based on the well established aqueous reprocessing for LWR spent fuel and newly applied processes such as uranium crystallization and extraction chromatography for MAs recovery. Main task of the NEXT process is to develop the TRU recovery process and equipments with high reliability, criticality safety, high durability and remote maintainability. In the FaCT project, all innovative technologies are planned to be developed within the next decade focusing on the future commercialization of FBR cycle systems. The judgment of the adoption of each innovative technology will be made by 2010 based on the results of R and Ds. The development of each technology is to be completed by around 2015. By the same time, it is scheduled to present the conceptual design of commercial and demonstrative fast reactor cycle facilities. The six items (Disassembling and shearing, Fuel dissolution, Uranium Crystallization, Single cycle co-extraction of U, Pu and Np, MA recovery by extraction chromatography and Waste treatment) have been identified as the issues to be developed corresponding to each process step. Current R and D status and prospects of this system until around 2015 is reported. (author)

  12. The Symbiose project: an integrated framework for performing environmental radiological risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonze, M.A.; Mourlon, C.; Garcia-Sanchez, L.; Beaugelin, K.; Chen, T.; Le Dizes, S.

    2004-01-01

    Human health and ecological risk assessments usually require the integration of a wide range of environmental data and modelling approaches, with a varying level of detail dependent on the management objectives, the complexity of the site and the level of ignorance about the pollutant behaviour/toxicity. Like most scientists and assessors did it recently, we recognized the need for developing comprehensive, integrated and flexible approaches to risk assessment. To meet these needs, IRSN launched the Symbiose project (2002-2006) which aims first, at designing a framework for integrating and managing data, methods and knowledge of some relevance in radiological risk to humans/biota assessment studies, and second, at implementing this framework in an information management, modelling and calculation platform. Feasibility developments (currently completed) led to the specification of a fully integrated, object-oriented and hierarchical approach for describing the fate, transport and effect of radionuclides in spatially-distributed environmental systems. This innovative approach has then been implemented in a platform prototype, main components of which are a user-friendly and modular simulation environment (e.g. using GoldSim toolbox), and a hierarchical object-oriented biosphere database. Both conceptual and technical developments will be presented here. (author)

  13. MARR project risk matrices in radiotherapy; Proyecto MARR: matrices de riesgo en radioterapia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ramirez, M. L.; Perez Mulas, A.; Vilanova, J.; Prieto, C.; Delgado, J. M.; Alvarez, C.; Rodriguez, M.

    2014-07-01

    Radiotherapy is a complex process not without risk for the patient. The Council de Nuclear Safety (CSN), based on its cooperation with the health authorities regarding radiation protection of patient is promoting, through the project MARR, (Risk matrix in radiotherapy) the risk analysis in the radiotherapy departments of our country. This project represents the extension of methodologies applied in the nuclear sector other radiological practices. The aim is to share, with professional societies, the knowledge acquired by the CSN during its participation in the Ibero-American Forum of regulators (Forum) projects. (Author)

  14. Current approaches to cyanotoxin risk assessment and risk management around the globe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibelings, Bas W.; Backer, Lorraine C.; Kardinaal, W. Edwin A.; Chorus, Ingrid

    2015-01-01

    Toxic cyanobacteria became more widely recognized as a potential health hazard in the 1990s, and in 1998 the World Health Organization (WHO) first published a provisional Guideline Value of 1 μg L−1 for microcystin-LR in drinking-water. In this publication we compare risk assessment and risk management of toxic cyanobacteria in 17 countries across all five continents. We focus on the three main (oral) exposure vehicles to cyanotoxins: drinking-water, water related recreational and freshwater seafood. Most countries have implemented the provisional WHO Guideline Value, some as legally binding standard, to ensure the distribution of safe drinking-water with respect to microcystins. Regulation, however, also needs to address the possible presence of a wide range of other cyanotoxins and bioactive compounds, for which no guideline values can be derived due to insufficient toxicological data. The presence of microcystins (commonly expressed as microcystin-LR equivalents) may be used as proxy for overall guidance on risk management, but this simplification may miss certain risks, for instance from dissolved fractions of cylindrospermopsin and cyanobacterial neurotoxins. An alternative approach, often taken for risk assessment and management in recreational waters, is to regulate cyanobacterial presence – as cell numbers or biomass – rather than individual toxins. Here, many countries have implemented a two or three tier alert level system with incremental severity. These systems define the levels where responses are switched from Surveillance to Alert and finally to Action Mode and they specify the short-term actions that follow. Surface bloom formation is commonly judged to be a significant risk because of the elevated concentration of microcystins in a scum. Countries have based their derivations of legally binding standards, guideline values, maximally allowed concentrations (or limits named otherwise) on very similar scientific methodology, but underlying

  15. Current approaches to cyanotoxin risk assessment and risk management around the globe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibelings, Bas W; Backer, Lorraine C; Kardinaal, W Edwin A; Chorus, Ingrid

    2015-12-01

    Toxic cyanobacteria became more widely recognized as a potential health hazard in the 1990s, and in 1998 the World Health Organization (WHO) first published a provisional Guideline Value of 1 μg L -1 for microcystin-LR in drinking-water. In this publication we compare risk assessment and risk management of toxic cyanobacteria in 17 countries across all five continents. We focus on the three main (oral) exposure vehicles to cyanotoxins: drinking-water, water related recreational and freshwater seafood. Most countries have implemented the provisional WHO Guideline Value, some as legally binding standard, to ensure the distribution of safe drinking-water with respect to microcystins. Regulation, however, also needs to address the possible presence of a wide range of other cyanotoxins and bioactive compounds, for which no guideline values can be derived due to insufficient toxicological data. The presence of microcystins (commonly expressed as microcystin-LR equivalents) may be used as proxy for overall guidance on risk management, but this simplification may miss certain risks, for instance from dissolved fractions of cylindrospermopsin and cyanobacterial neurotoxins. An alternative approach, often taken for risk assessment and management in recreational waters, is to regulate cyanobacterial presence - as cell numbers or biomass - rather than individual toxins. Here, many countries have implemented a two or three tier alert level system with incremental severity. These systems define the levels where responses are switched from Surveillance to Alert and finally to Action Mode and they specify the short-term actions that follow. Surface bloom formation is commonly judged to be a significant risk because of the elevated concentration of microcystins in a scum. Countries have based their derivations of legally binding standards, guideline values, maximally allowed concentrations (or limits named otherwise) on very similar scientific methodology, but underlying

  16. OPPORTUNITIES AND RISKS IN A CONTROL SYSTEM OF INNOVATIVE PROJECTS OF ORGANIZATIONAL DEVELOPMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.V. Grebenkin

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The definition of the organizational development innovative project and the technique of its estimation is in this article offered. The distinctive special feature of this method is comparison of opportunities and risks by means of essentially new system of the parameters. These parameters allow to receive a complex estimation of a condition of organizational development innovative projects. Approbation of the offered estimated technique has been lead on set of organizational development innovative projects which were realized at the enterprises of a various branch accessory. The hypothesis about necessity of definition of a condition of the project by means of an estimation of opportunities and their comparisons to risks is confirmed.

  17. Natural risks assessment and management (project of monograph)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ragozin, A.L.

    1998-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: large-scale theoretic and practical works on the issue of natural risk assessment and management started in Russia in the end of the 80's. By now there has been made a considerable progress, which allowed for the preparation of a collective monograph on the subject mentioned in the title of this abstract. It is supposed to be published in 1999 in order to become a Russian contribution to the International Decade of Natural Disasters Reduction. The monograph included 6 chapters with the following titles: 1. Methodological foundations of natural risk analysis and assessment. 2. Investigating and forecasting natural hazards for the purpose of risk assessment. 3. Assessment of economic, social and ecological damage from natural hazards. 4, Theory of natural risk assessment. 5. Examples of natural risk assessment and mapping. 6. Natural risk management. In the report there is described the content of the monograph and unsolved questions are discussed. Executive editor offers all international experts to cooperate in the compilation of this monograph, which is to be completed by the end of 1998, especially of chapter 5 and 6. (author)

  18. Analysis of projected water availability with current basin management plan, Pajaro Valley, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, R. T.; Lockwood, B.; Schmid, Wolfgang

    2014-11-01

    The projection and analysis of the Pajaro Valley Hydrologic Model (PVHM) 34 years into the future using MODFLOW with the Farm Process (MF-FMP) facilitates assessment of potential future water availability. The projection is facilitated by the integrated hydrologic model, MF-FMP that fully couples the simulation of the use and movement of water from precipitation, streamflow, runoff, groundwater flow, and consumption by natural and agricultural vegetation throughout the hydrologic system at all times. MF-FMP allows for more complete analysis of conjunctive-use water-resource systems than previously possible with MODFLOW by combining relevant aspects of the landscape with the groundwater and surface-water components. This analysis is accomplished using distributed cell-by-cell supply-constrained and demand-driven components across the landscape within ;water-balance subregions; (WBS) comprised of one or more model cells that can represent a single farm, a group of farms, watersheds, or other hydrologic or geopolitical entities. Analysis of conjunctive use would be difficult without embedding the fully coupled supply-and-demand into a fully coupled simulation, and are difficult to estimate a priori. The analysis of projected supply and demand for the Pajaro Valley indicate that the current water supply facilities constructed to provide alternative local sources of supplemental water to replace coastal groundwater pumpage, but may not completely eliminate additional overdraft. The simulation of the coastal distribution system (CDS) replicates: 20 miles of conveyance pipeline, managed aquifer recharge and recovery (MARR) system that captures local runoff, and recycled-water treatment facility (RWF) from urban wastewater, along with the use of other blend water supplies, provide partial relief and substitution for coastal pumpage (aka in-lieu recharge). The effects of these Basin Management Plan (BMP) projects were analyzed subject to historical climate variations and

  19. Multi-site risk-based project planning, optimization, sequencing, & budgeting process and tool for the integrated facility disposition project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelson, J.G.; Castillo, C.; Huntsman, J.; Killoy, S.; Lucek, H.; Marks, T.C.

    2011-01-01

    Faced with the Department of Energy (DOE) Complex Transformation, National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) was tasked with developing an integrated plan for the decommissioning of over 400 facilities and 300 environmental remediation units, as well as the many reconfiguration and modernization projects at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and Y-12 Complex. Manual scheduling of remediation activities is time-consuming and inherently introduces bias of the scheduler or organization into the process. Clearly a well-defined process, quantitative risk-based tool was needed to develop an objective, unbiased baseline sequence and schedule with a sound technical foundation for the Integrated Facility Disposition Project (IFDP). Faced with limited available data, innovation was needed to extrapolate intelligent relative data for key risk parameters based on known data elements. The IFDP Supermodel was customized and expanded to provide this capability for conceptual planning of diverse project portfolios and multiple sites. (author)

  20. Deciphering priority areas for improving project risk management ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    unethical practices contributing to poor project delivery in the ZCI,. Mukumbwa and Muya .... Egypt, Ghana, India, Indonesia, Jordan, Malaysia, Mozambique,. Nigeria, Pakistan ..... The analysis is based on the Pareto principle, also known as the 80/20 .... poor interpretation of contract; poor safety on site; disputes; high taxes;.

  1. Associations between depression risk, bullying and current smoking among Chinese adolescents: Modulated by gender.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Lan; Hong, Lingyao; Gao, Xue; Zhou, Jinhua; Lu, Ciyong; Zhang, Wei-Hong

    2016-03-30

    This school-based study aimed to investigate the prevalence of being at risk for depression, bullying behavior, and current smoking among Chinese adolescents in order to explore gender differences in the vulnerability of adolescents with these behaviors to develop a smoking habit. A total of 35,893 high school students sampled from high schools in eighteen cities in China participated in the study from 2011 to 2012. Overall, the prevalence of current smoking was estimated at 6.4%. In total, 1.7% (618) of the participants admitted to bullying others, 5.8% (2071) reported being bullied, 3.5% (1269) were involved in both bullying others and being bullied, and 5.6% (2017) were at high risk for depression. Logistic regression analysis indicated that among girls, with high depression risk, bullying others, being bullied, and both bullying others and being bullied were independently and positively associated with current smoking habits, while the final results among boys showed that bullying others and both bullying others and being bullied were independently associated with an increased risk of current smoking. School-based prevention programs are highly recommended, and we should focus on high-risk students, particularly girls with high risk of depression or involved in school bullying and boys who are involved in school bullying. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Winter Arctic sea ice growth: current variability and projections for the coming decades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petty, A.; Boisvert, L.; Webster, M.; Holland, M. M.; Bailey, D. A.; Kurtz, N. T.; Markus, T.

    2017-12-01

    Arctic sea ice increases in both extent and thickness during the cold winter months ( October to May). Winter sea ice growth is an important factor controlling ocean ventilation and winter water/deep water formation, as well as determining the state and vulnerability of the sea ice pack before the melt season begins. Key questions for the Arctic community thus include: (i) what is the current magnitude and variability of winter Arctic sea ice growth and (ii) how might this change in a warming Arctic climate? To address (i), our current best guess of pan-Arctic sea ice thickness, and thus volume, comes from satellite altimetry observations, e.g. from ESA's CryoSat-2 satellite. A significant source of uncertainty in these data come from poor knowledge of the overlying snow depth. Here we present new estimates of winter sea ice thickness from CryoSat-2 using snow depths from a simple snow model forced by reanalyses and satellite-derived ice drift estimates, combined with snow depth estimates from NASA's Operation IceBridge. To address (ii), we use data from the Community Earth System Model's Large Ensemble Project, to explore sea ice volume and growth variability, and how this variability might change over the coming decades. We compare and contrast the model simulations to observations and the PIOMAS ice-ocean model (over recent years/decades). The combination of model and observational analysis provide novel insight into Arctic sea ice volume variability.

  3. The CAREM-25 project from the risk point of view

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baron, J.H.

    1998-01-01

    The future use of the nuclear energy for electricity production is considered a possible alternative, mainly taking into account the high environmental impact of the fossil fuel alternatives (greenhouse effect, acid rain). In a worldwide context, however, it is desirable for the new nuclear power plants to be safer than the present ones. To demonstrate the safety level of a nuclear installation, the Risk Analysis (in fact, Probabilistic Safety Analysis) is an adequate tool, as it allows for the risk level quantification. The risk itself is composed of two factors, the first takes into account the probability associated with accidental sequences that release radioactive materials, the second takes into account the amount and consequences of such a release. In the present work, the reduction of both factors is faced, the probability by using simpler safety systems (inherently safe systems), and the consequence by using small power production units, that have, besides, passive mitigation systems and long response times. The work is illustrated with a risk comparison for electricity production via CAREM-25 units, against via a classic design unit (Atucha II). The results are base in Probabilistic Safety Studies performed for both installations. The conclusions show an effective risk reduction (both in probability and in consequence), reaching the point where in no case acute irradiation effects are predicted in the vicinity of the accidented plant. (author) [es

  4. Project risk management in the construction of high-rise buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Titarenko, Boris; Hasnaoui, Amir; Titarenko, Roman; Buzuk, Liliya

    2018-03-01

    This paper shows the project risk management methods, which allow to better identify risks in the construction of high-rise buildings and to manage them throughout the life cycle of the project. One of the project risk management processes is a quantitative analysis of risks. The quantitative analysis usually includes the assessment of the potential impact of project risks and their probabilities. This paper shows the most popular methods of risk probability assessment and tries to indicate the advantages of the robust approach over the traditional methods. Within the framework of the project risk management model a robust approach of P. Huber is applied and expanded for the tasks of regression analysis of project data. The suggested algorithms used to assess the parameters in statistical models allow to obtain reliable estimates. A review of the theoretical problems of the development of robust models built on the methodology of the minimax estimates was done and the algorithm for the situation of asymmetric "contamination" was developed.

  5. Risk identification for PPP waste-to-energy incineration projects in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song, Jinbo; Song, Danrong; Zhang, Xueqing; Sun, Yan

    2013-01-01

    Municipal solid waste (MSW) is regarded as a renewable energy source. In China, the sharp increase of MSW has precipitated the rapid growth of waste-to-energy (WTE) incineration plants. Private capital has been getting into the WTE incineration industry through the public–private partnership (PPP) arrangement. Due to the large construction cost and the long concession period commonly associated with this arrangement, a number of failures have emerged in PPP WTE incineration projects. The aim of this paper is to investigate the key risks of PPP WTE incineration projects in China and study the strategies for managing these risks by drawing experience and learning lessons from these projects. First, we analyzed the MSW management practices, relevant legislations and policies, and the development of PPP WTE incineration projects in China. Second, we identified ten key risks through interviews, surveys and visits to some selected projects, and provided detailed analysis of these risks. Lastly, we developed response strategies for these risks from the perspectives of both public and private sectors. - Highlights: • We analyze MSW management practices, relevant legislations and policies in China. • Through case study on PPP WTE incineration projects, ten key risks are identified. • Response strategies for key risks are developed

  6. Ecological effects and potential risks of the water diversion project in the Heihe River Basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Mengmeng; Wang, Shuai; Fu, Bojie; Gao, Guangyao; Shen, Qin

    2018-04-01

    To curb the severe ecological deterioration in the lower Heihe River Basin (HRB) in northwest China, a water diversion project was initiated in 2000. A comprehensive analysis of the ecological effects and potential risks associated with the project is needed. We assessed the hydrological and ecological achievements, and also analyzed the potential problems after the project was completed. We found that since the project began the hydrological regime has changed, with more than 57.82% of the upstream water being discharged to the lower reaches on average. As a result, the groundwater level in the lower reaches has risen; the terminal lake has gradually expanded to a maximum area in excess of 50km 2 since 2010, and there has been a significant recovery of vegetation in the riparian zone and the Ejin core oases, which represents the initial rehabilitation of the degraded downstream environment. Additionally, the economy of Ejin has developed spectacularly, with an annual growth rate of 28.06%. However, in the middle reaches, the average groundwater level has continuously declined by a total of 5.8m and significant degradation of the vegetation has occurred along the river course. The discrepancy in the water allocation between the middle and lower reaches has intensified. This highlights the inability of the current water diversion scheme to realize further ecological restoration and achieve sustainable development throughout the whole basin. In future water management programs, we recommend that water allocation is coordinated by considering the basin as an integrated entity and to scientifically determine the size of the midstream farmland and downstream oasis; restrict non-ecological water use in the lower reaches, and jointly dispatch the surface water and groundwater. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Sustainability Risk Evaluation for Large-Scale Hydropower Projects with Hybrid Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weiyao Tang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available As large-scale hydropower projects are influenced by many factors, risk evaluations are complex. This paper considers a hydropower project as a complex system from the perspective of sustainability risk, and divides it into three subsystems: the natural environment subsystem, the eco-environment subsystem and the socioeconomic subsystem. Risk-related factors and quantitative dimensions of each subsystem are comprehensively analyzed considering uncertainty of some quantitative dimensions solved by hybrid uncertainty methods, including fuzzy (e.g., the national health degree, the national happiness degree, the protection of cultural heritage, random (e.g., underground water levels, river width, and fuzzy random uncertainty (e.g., runoff volumes, precipitation. By calculating the sustainability risk-related degree in each of the risk-related factors, a sustainable risk-evaluation model is built. Based on the calculation results, the critical sustainability risk-related factors are identified and targeted to reduce the losses caused by sustainability risk factors of the hydropower project. A case study at the under-construction Baihetan hydropower station is presented to demonstrate the viability of the risk-evaluation model and to provide a reference for the sustainable risk evaluation of other large-scale hydropower projects.

  8. Projection of radiation-induced cancer risks across time and populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muirhead, C.R.

    1991-01-01

    Various methods can be used to project the risks of radiation-induced cancer estimated in cohort studies beyond the period of follow-up and to other populations. The choice of risk projection model is reviewed based on data from studies such as those of the Japanese atomic bomb survivors and UK ankylosing spondylitis patients given X ray therapy. Risk estimates applicable to a UK population are calculated on the basis of various models, including those developed by the BEIR V Committee. It is emphasised that the continued follow-up of populations such as the Japanese atomic bomb survivors is of great importance in estimating lifetime risks. (author)

  9. National inventory of selected biological monitoring programs. Summary report of current or recently completed projects, 1976

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kemp, H. T.

    1976-10-01

    The Inventory has resulted in establishment of a series of data bases containing biological monitoring information of varying types, namely, directory of investigators, record of projects received from mail questionnaire, detailed description of selected biomonitoring projects, and bibliographic citations supporting the projects received. This report contains detailed descriptions of selected biomonitoring projects organized on a state-by-state basis and with appropriate indices.

  10. A Quantitative Measure For Evaluating Project Uncertainty Under Variation And Risk Effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Chenarani

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The effects of uncertainty on a project and the risk event as the consequence of uncertainty are analyzed. The uncertainty index is proposed as a quantitative measure for evaluating the uncertainty of a project. This is done by employing entropy as the indicator of system disorder and lack of information. By employing this index, the uncertainty of each activity and its increase due to risk effects as well as project uncertainty changes as a function of time can be assessed. The results are implemented and analyzed for a small turbojet engine development project as the case study. The results of this study can be useful for project managers and other stakeholders for selecting the most effective risk management and uncertainty controlling method.

  11. The Fee Sensitive Risk Exposures of Project Authorized Person in Hong Kong

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sai-On Cheung

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Authorized Persons (AP play a critical role in the design and construction of building works in Hong Kong. Under the Building Ordinance, design and construction of building works need to be coordinated and monitored by an AP registered with the Buildings Department. Professionally qualified Architects, Engineers and Surveyors are eligible to register as AP after completing the prescribed assessment. In addition, the project AP is often appointed by the project owner to be the project team leader. In these capacities, a project AP is exposed to various risks. This paper seeks to identify the fee sensitive risk exposures of project APs. Through an ANOVA study, these risks exposures are those due to liabilities under the Building Ordinance at the construction stage, those towards the third parties and the clients.

  12. Academy of Program/Project & Engineering Leadership Orbital Debris Management and Risk Mitigation

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The NASA Academy of Program/Project & Engineering Leadership (APPEL) is excited to announce the public release of Orbital Debris Management and Risk Mitigation,...

  13. Interconnection of the Degree of Risk and Life Cycle of the “Green Construction” Investment Projects

    OpenAIRE

    Lepehova Natalia; Shoshinov Vitaly

    2017-01-01

    This article analyses interconnection of the degree of risk and the life cycle of the “green building” investment projects, which is structured according to the life cycle. Main stages of the implementation of investment and construction project were considered, interconnection of the project life cycle and the level of project risk were presented in the form of graphical model, proposed a mathematical model of the risk calculation at different stages of the project life cycle, which is a fun...

  14. Estimating the financial risks of Andropogon gayanus to greenhouse gas abatement projects in northern Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Vanessa M.; Setterfield, Samantha A.

    2013-06-01

    Financial mechanisms such as offsets are one strategy to abate greenhouse gas emissions, and the carbon market is expanding with a growing demand for offset products. However, in the case of carbon offsets, if the carbon is released due to intentional or unintentional reversal through environmental events such as fire, the financial liability to replace lost offsets will likely fall on the provider. This liability may have implications for future participation in programmes, but common strategies such as buffer pool and insurance products can be used to minimize this liability. In order for these strategies to be effective, an understanding of the spatial and temporal distributions of expected reversals is needed. We use the case study of savanna burning, an approved greenhouse gas abatement methodology under the Carbon Farming Initiative in Australia, to examine potential risks to carbon markets in northern Australia and quantify the financial risks. We focus our analysis on the threat of Andropogon gayanus (gamba grass) to savanna burning due to its documented impacts of increased fuel loads and altered fire regimes. We assess the spatial and financial extent to which gamba grass poses a risk to savanna burning programmes in northern Australia. We find that 75% of the eligible area for savanna burning is spatially coincident with the high suitability range for gamba grass. Our analysis demonstrates that the presence of gamba grass seriously impacts the financial viability of savanna burning projects. For example, in order to recuperate the annual costs of controlling 1 ha of gamba grass infestation, 290 ha of land must be enrolled in annual carbon abatement credits. Our results show an immediate need to contain gamba grass to its current extent to avoid future spread into large expanses of land, which are currently profitable for savanna burning.

  15. Estimating the financial risks of Andropogon gayanus to greenhouse gas abatement projects in northern Australia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adams, Vanessa M; Setterfield, Samantha A

    2013-01-01

    Financial mechanisms such as offsets are one strategy to abate greenhouse gas emissions, and the carbon market is expanding with a growing demand for offset products. However, in the case of carbon offsets, if the carbon is released due to intentional or unintentional reversal through environmental events such as fire, the financial liability to replace lost offsets will likely fall on the provider. This liability may have implications for future participation in programmes, but common strategies such as buffer pool and insurance products can be used to minimize this liability. In order for these strategies to be effective, an understanding of the spatial and temporal distributions of expected reversals is needed. We use the case study of savanna burning, an approved greenhouse gas abatement methodology under the Carbon Farming Initiative in Australia, to examine potential risks to carbon markets in northern Australia and quantify the financial risks. We focus our analysis on the threat of Andropogon gayanus (gamba grass) to savanna burning due to its documented impacts of increased fuel loads and altered fire regimes. We assess the spatial and financial extent to which gamba grass poses a risk to savanna burning programmes in northern Australia. We find that 75% of the eligible area for savanna burning is spatially coincident with the high suitability range for gamba grass. Our analysis demonstrates that the presence of gamba grass seriously impacts the financial viability of savanna burning projects. For example, in order to recuperate the annual costs of controlling 1 ha of gamba grass infestation, 290 ha of land must be enrolled in annual carbon abatement credits. Our results show an immediate need to contain gamba grass to its current extent to avoid future spread into large expanses of land, which are currently profitable for savanna burning. (letter)

  16. Introduction to Toxicity and Risk Assessment for Project Chemists

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-27

    Toxicity of Hexavalent Chromium  External review complete  EPA will wait until studies underway on carcinogenic mode of action are complete to...finalize the assessment  NJ and Cal values for hex chrome 16 Risk-Based Screening Levels Resident Soil (mg/kg) Resident Water Use (µg/L) DRAFT 0.04

  17. Research on Investment Risk Management of Chinese Prefabricated Construction Projects Based on a System Dynamics Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Li

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Prefabricated construction, a new direction for the future development of the Chinese construction industry, can maximize the requirements of “green”. As a new form of green building, prefabricated construction is of particular interest. On account of the immature development of the green building market in China, the investment risk for prefabricated construction is higher than for traditional architecture. Hence, it is especially important to improve its investment risk identification and management. This study adopts system dynamics and builds a risk identification feedback chart and risk flow chart, to comprehensively identify investment risks that projects in China may face and to process quantitative estimation of investment risk factors. Key factors influencing project investment risks are found, and corresponding measures are pointedly proposed. This paper may provide guidance and a reference for promoting the sound development of prefabricated construction in China.

  18. Risks and opportunities management on laser Megajoule project: the development of a new knowledge

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delafosse-Le Ber, H.; Deysson, St.; Briault, S.

    2004-01-01

    The interest of these six years spent to build the management through the Risks and the Opportunities (R and O) approach on the project Megajoule Laser as well did not hold with the practical application of a method as to the installation of a formal culture and to its evolution in time. This culture, it had to be progressively founded within a mainly technical project team. More qualitative with most quantitative aspects, the putting into practice of the R and O approach on project LMJ knew all the degrees of evolution and precision. The starting of the project saw being born the first analysis of its 'Project Risk' with a series of interviews, carried out by the Quality Manager at the time. This analysis took the shape of a technical item lists, which are identified in an empirical way. Then, some brainstorming meeting were led under the responsibility of the Technical Coordinator (which is the Project Manager assistant) in order to identify and to evaluate the 'Project Risk' on a qualitative way, but always keeping a strong technical connotation. The methodological reference of the 'Project Risk' was outlined taking into account the DGA AQ 923 without directly interaction with the other project processes (for example, the cost, the deadlines and the performance management). Initially, the project developed an Access database, which allows the storing of the risk files. Unfortunately, this database is isolated from the other project management data processing tools. In the second time, the project decided to obtain a dedicated organisation, hierarchically independent from the technical managers but however integrated into the project and attached to the assistant of the Control Project Manager. This organisation being called 'Risks and Opportunities Team', when the management of the opportunities supplemented the R and O approach. This team combines today the individual interviews and the Working Groups in order to identify and to evaluate the effects of the R

  19. Project risk definition and measurement in a not-for-profit setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gapenski, L C

    1992-11-01

    The health care finance literature on capital investment decisions generally applies conventional market risk concepts without distinguishing between proprietary and not-for-profit forms of organization. Since proprietary firms have shareholder wealth maximization as their primary goal, a project's relevant risk is its contribution to the riskiness of the equity investors' well diversified stock portfolios, or its market risk. However, not-for-profit organizations do not have shareholder wealth maximization as their primary goal, and thus market risk concepts are not applicable. Rather, the relevant risk in a not-for-profit setting is a project's corporate risk; that is, the project's contribution to the riskiness of the organization. The difference in risk definition and measurement between proprietary and not-for-profit firms has two implications for managerial decisions: (1) in making capital investment decisions, a manager must define and measure a project's riskiness on the basis of the firm's organizational form; and (2) although diversification for the sole purpose of risk reduction is not a valid rationale for proprietary firms because stockholders can achieve the same result at less cost, risk-reducing diversification does make sense for not-for-profit firms.

  20. Probabilistic risk analysis for the NASA space shuttle: a brief history and current work

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pate-Cornell, Elisabeth; Dillon, Robin

    2001-01-01

    While NASA managers have always relied on risk analysis tools for the development and maintenance of space projects, quantitative and especially probabilistic techniques have been gaining acceptance in recent years. In some cases, the studies have been required, for example, to launch the Galileo spacecraft with plutonium fuel, but these successful applications have helped to demonstrate the benefits of these tools. This paper reviews the history of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) by NASA for the space shuttle program and discusses the status of the on-going development of the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS) software that performs PRA. The goal is to have within NASA a tool that can be used when needed to update previous risk estimates and to assess the benefits of possible upgrades to the system

  1. Risk Assessment in Financial Feasibility of Tanker Project Using Monte Carlo Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Badrus Zaman

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Every ship project would not be apart from risk and uncertainty issues. The inappropriate risk assessment process would have long-term impact, such as financial loss. Thus, risk and uncertainties analysis would be a very important process in financial feasibility determination of the project. This study analyzes the financial feasibility of 17,500 LTDW tanker project. Risk and uncertainty are two differentiated terminologies in this study, where risk focuses on operational risk due to shipbuilding process nonconformity to shipowner finance, while uncertainty focuses on variable costs that affect project cash flows. There are three funding scenarios in this study, where the percentage of funding with own capital and bank loan in scenario 1 is 100% : 0%, scenario 2 is 75% : 25%, and scenario 3 is 50% : 50%. Monte Carlo simulation method was applied to simulate the acceptance criteria, such as net present value (NPV, internal rate of return (IRR, payback period (PP, and profitability index (PI. The results of simulation show that 17,500 LTDW tanker project funding by scenario 1, 2 and 3 are feasible to run, where probability of each acceptance criteria was greater than 50%. Charter rate being the most sensitive uncertainty over project's financial feasibility parameters.

  2. Risk Management Affecting IS/IT Project Success Through Communicative Action

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Bakker, K.F.C.; Boonstra, A.; Wortmann, J.C.

    Project risk management is defined in the literature as being instrumental action based on rational problem solving. Research indicates limited positive effects of an exclusive focus of instrumental action on project success. This article proposes to extend this instrumental view through

  3. Evaluation and financial risk management of urban renewal projects in partnership with public and private

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ehsan Hassani

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Financing plays an important role for renewal of old city building is find suitable financing plan. A proper financial management in one hand has a direct relationship with project main factors such as: time, cost and quality of the project, and on the other hand, achieving project goals requires a comprehensive insight of project, stockholders as well as other relative situation in regard with the project. Considering the complication of execution such projects and the number of shareholders, one of the best attitudes towards the project management is risk management. This research is a qualitative and practical, which reviews the effects of project management factors on financial return of urban renewal sachem. The required information gained through a survey and via questionnaire and interviews with specialists. This article first describes the public private financial partnership and then, based on the results gained from a case study done on one of the renewal schemes in Mashhad metropolitan areas. Next, it identifies and evaluates of positive and negative risks, which lead to threats and opportunities will be performed and will attempt to respond the existent risks. Finally, we provide a framework for the risk assessment of the housing units.

  4. Preventable coronary heart disease events from control of cardiovascular risk factors in US adults with diabetes (projections from utilizing the UKPDS risk engine).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Nathan D; Patao, Christopher; Malik, Shaista; Iloeje, Uchenna

    2014-04-15

    Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) carries significant risks for coronary heart disease (CHD). We examined the potential US population impact of single and composite risk factor control. Among US adults with diagnosed T2DM aged≥30 years in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2007 to 2012, we assessed CHD events preventable using the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study CHD risk engine. We examined in all those not at goal the impact of statistical control of smoking, glycated hemoglobin, systolic blood pressure, and total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, according to the predefined criteria setting risk factors at different levels of control representing (1) "All to Goal," (2) at "Nominal Control," or (3) at "Aggressive Control." Preventable CHD events represented the difference between the number of events estimated from the control of these risk factors versus current levels of the risk factors. Of 606 men (representing 6.2 million) and 603 women (6.3 million) with DM and no previous CHD, 1.3 million men and 0.7 million women would develop a CHD event within 10 years if left uncontrolled. Controlling all risk factors to goal was projected to prevent 35% and 45% of CHD events in men and women, respectively. Nominal risk factor control was projected to prevent 36% and 38% and aggressive control 51% and 61% of CHD events, respectively. In conclusion, a significant proportion of CHD events in adults with T2DM could be prevented from composite control of risk factors often not at goal. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Comparative risk analysis for the Rocky Flats Plant integrated project planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, M.E.; Shain, D.I.

    1994-01-01

    The Rocky Flats Plant is developing, with active stakeholder participation, a comprehensive planning strategy that will support transition of the Rocky Flats Plant from a nuclear weapons production facility to site cleanup and final disposition. Consideration of the interrelated nature of sitewide problems, such as material movement and disposition, facility and land use endstates, costs, relative risks to workers and the public, and waste disposition are all needed. Comparative Risk Analysis employs both incremental risk and cumulative risk evaluations to compare risks from postulated options or endstates and is an analytical tool for the Rocky Flats Plant Integrated Project Planning which can assist a decision-maker in evaluating relative risks among proposed remediation activity. However, risks from all of the remediation activities, decontamination and decommissioning activities, and normal ongoing operations are imposed upon the Rocky Flats workers, the surrounding public, and the environment. Comparative Risk Analysis will provide risk information, both human health and ecological, to aid in reducing unnecessary resource and monetary expenditures by focusing these resources on the largest risks first. Comparative Risk Analysis has been developed to aggregate various incremental risk estimates to develop a site cumulative risk estimate. The Comparative Risk Analysis methodology Group, consisting of community stakeholders, was established. Early stakeholder involvement in the risk analysis methodology development provides an opportunity for stakeholders to influence the risk information delivered to a decision-maker. This paper discusses development of the Comparative Risk Analysis methodology, stakeholder participation and lessons learned from these challenges

  6. Air Force Project Risk Management - The Impact of Inconsistent Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-09-15

    influences into witting and unwitting biases . A witting bias in terms of its effect on PRM includes risk assessment data that is skewed in order to fulfill... biases mentioned, which include weighting of recent events, optimism bias , and failure to acknowledge the probability of a “perfect storm” or “black...incentive based conscious bias , occurs deeper in the subconscious where it can take effect unrealized and is therefore harder to detect and find fault

  7. A Probabilistic Alternative Approach to Optimal Project Profitability Based on the Value-at-Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yonggu Kim

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on an investment decision-making process for sustainable development based on the profitability impact factors for overseas projects. Investors prefer to use the discounted cash-flow method. Although this method is simple and straightforward, its critical weakness is its inability to reflect the factor volatility associated with the project evaluation. To overcome this weakness, the Value-at-Risk method is used to apply the volatility of the profitability impact factors, thereby reflecting the risks and establishing decision-making criteria for risk-averse investors. Risk-averse investors can lose relatively acceptable investment opportunities to risk-neutral or risk-amenable investors due to strict investment decision-making criteria. To overcome this problem, critical factors are selected through a Monte Carlo simulation and a sensitivity analysis, and solutions to the critical-factor problems are then found by using the Theory of Inventive Problem Solving and a business version of the Project Definition Rating Index. This study examines the process of recovering investment opportunities with projects that are investment feasible and that have been rejected when applying the criterion of the Value-at-Risk method. To do this, a probabilistic alternative approach is taken. To validate this methodology, the proposed framework for an improved decision-making process is demonstrated using two actual overseas projects of a Korean steel-making company.

  8. Risk management tools from the traditional energy industry to wind energy projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Randall, G.; Marks, R.

    2010-01-01

    Risk-based analysis techniques are used to quantify and prioritize a wide variety of problems within the traditional fossil fuel and nuclear power industries. This poster presentation evaluated some of the risk analysis tools and methods used by the energy industry to quantify and manage wind energy development risks. A comprehensive risk-based approach for identifying the probability and consequences of potential concerns was presented for a sample wind energy project. The process determined objectives in relation to the project's net present value. Contributing domains included the energy production, prices, and operating costs of the project. Decision criteria used to evaluate the desirability of the wind project were then developed. Monte Carlo simulations were the used to aggregate individual risks into an overall total. The contribution of each element to the decision objective was calculated separately. The element outputs were than combined into a measure of aggregate risk exposure. Aggregate results were used to calculate the decision criteria. The decision objective was to determine if the energy cost was less than the avoided cost of other project options. The study showed that the approach can allow decision-makers to mitigate risks. However, the results are dependent on the quality of the input data. tabs., figs.

  9. Risk management in a large-scale CO2 geosequestration pilot project, Illinois, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hnottavange-Telleen, K.; Chabora, E.; Finley, R.J.; Greenberg, S.E.; Marsteller, S.

    2011-01-01

    Like most large-scale infrastructure projects, carbon dioxide (CO 2) geological sequestration (GS) projects have multiple success criteria and multiple stakeholders. In this context "risk evaluation" encompasses multiple scales. Yet a risk management program aims to maximize the chance of project success by assessing, monitoring, minimizing all risks in a consistent framework. The 150,000-km2 Illinois Basin underlies much of the state of Illinois, USA, and parts of adjacent Kentucky and Indiana. Its potential for CO2 storage is first-rate among basins in North America, an impression that has been strengthened by early testing of the injection well of the Midwest Geological Sequestration Consortium's (MGSC's) Phase III large scale demonstration project, the Illinois Basin - Decatur Project (IBDP). The IBDP, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy's National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), represents a key trial of GS technologies and project-management techniques. Though risks are specific to each site and project, IBDP risk management methodologies provide valuable experience for future GS projects. IBDP views risk as the potential for negative impact to any of these five values: health and safety, environment, financial, advancing the viability and public acceptability of a GS industry, and research. Research goals include monitoring one million metric tonnes of injected CO2 in the subsurface. Risk management responds to the ways in which any values are at risk: for example, monitoring is designed to reduce uncertainties in parameter values that are important for research and system control, and is also designed to provide public assurance. Identified risks are the primary basis for risk-reduction measures: risks linked to uncertainty in geologic parameters guide further characterization work and guide simulations applied to performance evaluation. Formally, industry defines risk (more precisely risk criticality) as the product L*S, the Likelihood multiplied

  10. Risks and chances of combined forestry and biomass projects under the Clean Development Mechanism

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dutschke, Michael; Kapp, Gerald; Lehmann, Anna; Schaefer, Volkmar (Hamburg Inst. International Economics (Germany))

    2006-06-15

    The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) aims at reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, while at the same time taking up CO{sub 2} from the atmosphere in vegetation by means of afforestation and reforestation. In spite of these options being complementary, rules and modalities for both project classes are being treated separately in the relevant decisions by the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. The present study reviews the state of bioenergy use in developing countries, modalities and procedures under the CDM, and the potential for transaction cost reduction in climate mitigation projects. There are four potential types of combinations in the matrix between small-scale - large-scale / afforestation and reforestation - bioenergy activities. We develop criteria for assessing sustainable development benefits and present an example project for each of the potential project types. We find that the individual risks of single-category projects do not increase when combining project categories and that each combination holds potential for integrated sustainability benefits. Risks for local livelihoods do increase with project size, but a transparent, participatory planning phase is able to counterbalance smallholders' lack of negotiation power. Further research will have to develop concrete project examples and blueprints with approved CDM methodologies, thereby decreasing transaction costs and risk for all potential project partners. (au)

  11. Impacts of current and projected oil palm plantation expansion on air quality over Southeast Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. J. Silva

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Over recent decades oil palm plantations have rapidly expanded across Southeast Asia (SEA. According to the United Nations, oil palm production in SEA increased by a factor of 3 from 1995 to 2010. We investigate the impacts of current (2010 and near-term future (2020 projected oil palm expansion in SEA on surface–atmosphere exchange and the resulting air quality in the region. For this purpose, we use satellite data, high-resolution land maps, and the chemical transport model GEOS-Chem. Relative to a no oil palm plantation scenario (∼ 1990, overall simulated isoprene emissions in the region increased by 13 % due to oil palm plantations in 2010 and a further 11 % in the near-term future. In addition, the expansion of palm plantations leads to local increases in ozone deposition velocities of up to 20 %. The net result of these changes is that oil palm expansion in SEA increases surface O3 by up to 3.5 ppbv over dense urban regions, and in the near-term future could rise more than 4.5 ppbv above baseline levels. Biogenic secondary organic aerosol loadings also increase by up to 1 µg m−3 due to oil palm expansion, and could increase by a further 2.5 µg m−3 in the near-term future. Our analysis indicates that while the impact of recent oil palm expansion on air quality in the region has been significant, the retrieval error and sensitivity of the current constellation of satellite measurements limit our ability to observe these impacts from space. Oil palm expansion is likely to continue to degrade air quality in the region in the coming decade and hinder efforts to achieve air quality regulations in major urban areas such as Kuala Lumpur and Singapore.

  12. Exploring current and projected tradeoffs between hydropower profitability and reliability of supply in the Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anghileri, D.; Castelletti, A.; Burlando, P.

    2015-12-01

    The recent spreading of renewable energy across Europe and the associated production variability and uncertainty are emerging challenges for hydropower system operation. Widely distributed and highly intermittent solar and wind power generation systems, along with feed-in-tariffs, at which they are remunerated, are threating the operation of traditional hydropower systems. For instance, in countries where the transition to a larger production by means of renewable power systems is a novel process, e.g. Switzerland, many hydropower companies are operating their reservoirs with low or no profits, claiming for a revision of the entire energy market system. This situation goes along with the problem of ensuring energy supply both nowadays and in the future, with changing energy demand and available water resources. In this work, we focus on a hydropower system in the Swiss Alps to explore how different operating policies can cope with both adequate energy supply and profitable operation under current and future climate and socio-economic conditions. We investigate the operation of the Mattmark reservoir in South-West Switzerland. Mattmark is a pumped reservoir of 98 106 m3 fed by a natural catchment of 37 km2 and contributing catchments, summing up to 51 km2, connected by several diversion channels. The hydrological regime, snow- and ice-melt dominated, has already experienced changes in the last decades due to glacier retreat and is expected to be strongly impacted by climate change in the future. We use Multi-Objective optimization techniques to explore current tradeoffs between profitability and secure supply. We then investigate how tradeoffs may evolve in time under different climate change projections and energy market scenarios. Results inform on the co-evolution of climate- and socio-economic induced variations, thus unveiling potential co-benefit situations to hydropower generation and providing insights to future energy market design.

  13. Determination of risk identification process employed by NHS for a PFI hospital project in the UK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. E. Mohamed Ghazali

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Long-term concession contracts associated with Private Finance Initiative (PFI projects, such as National Health Service (NHS hospitals, are subject to substantial risks, which may not only emerge from project activities such as design and construction, but also from global issues beyond the control of project parties, such as commercial, legal and political risks. Therefore, the principal parties involved must manage risks effectively and efficiently, as early as the project initiation stage, in order to ensure a successful delivery. The aim of this paper is to examine the risk identification process of the NHS PFI hospital in the UK, as a case study, in order to determine the techniques used in risk identification, and their significance, based on estimated probabilities of occurrence. These objectives were achieved through interviews with key personnel within the NHS Trust involved. Results found the sole technique used in risk identification to be brainstorming, through which more than thirty risks were identified and classified under six risk categories: planning, pre-commissioning, design, land purchasing, construction and operation. Thirteen risks were identified as significant based on their estimated probability of occurrence had the project been developed via public procurement. The results of this research will enable public sector clients like the NHS Trust to not only identify the significant risks, which will allow them to focus more attention on developing appropriate mitigation strategies and contingency plans, but also to improve its risk identification process through the use of other techniques in order to support findings from the brainstorming process.

  14. [Air contamination in the Autonomous City of Buenos Aires: the current risk or future climate change, a false option].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abrutzky, Rosana; Dawidowski, Laura; Murgida, Ana; Natenzon, Claudia Eleonor

    2014-09-01

    Based on the theoretical framework of environmental risk, this article discusses the management of air quality in the Autonomous City of Buenos Aires in relation to current and potential impacts of toxic gases and global climate change on the health of the population. Information on historical and current management of the air was linked to the results of the South American Emissions, Megacities and Climate research project to assess danger, exposure, vulnerability and uncertainty as the dimensions of risk. By contextualizing public policies developed in recent decades on this subject, it was possible to identify emerging configurations of risk and uncertainties as accelerators of social vulnerability. On the one hand, the fact that there is a positive correlation between mortality, changes in temperature and air pollution was confirmed. On the other hand, it became clear that there is a disconnect between air quality management and health care management, while limitations were found in the proposed mitigation measures relating to emissions of greenhouse gases produced by fuel, revealing uncertainties regarding their efficacy.

  15. Current status and future direction of INPRO (International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Omoto, Akira; Moriwaki, Masanao; Sugimoto, Jun; Nakai, Ryodai

    2007-01-01

    INPRO is an international forum to consider jointly the international and national actions required to achieve desired innovations in nuclear reactors and fuel cycles so as to ensure that nuclear energy is available to contribute to a sustainable development of the human, and IAEA becomes the secretariat for INPRO. The number of the members counts 28 by recent participation of Japan and U.S.A. now, and it is a unique forum to bring together both technology users and technology holders, that includes 5 countries which do not still have nuclear power generation. Until now it was phase I, and focused its activities to make clear the desired characteristics of nuclear energy system toward the future, and to develop methodology to evaluate various nuclear energy systems, but it shifted to phase II from July, 2006, and it planned three areas of activities such as improvement of evaluation methodology, institutional/infrastructure oriented activities and a collaborative project of technology development. Current status and future direction of INPRO was presented to encourage Japan in significant contributions of these three areas. (T. Tanaka)

  16. Mapping cumulative environmental risks: examples from the EU NoMiracle project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pistocchi, A.; Groenwold, J.; Lahr, J.; Loos, M.; Mujica, M.; Ragas, A.M.J.; Rallo, R.; Sala, S.; Schlink, U.; Strebel, K.; Vighi, M.; Vizcaino, P.

    2011-01-01

    We present examples of cumulative chemical risk mapping methods developed within the NoMiracle project. The different examples illustrate the application of the concentration addition (CA) approach to pesticides at different scale, the integration in space of cumulative risks to individual organisms

  17. Does risk management contribute to IT project success? A meta-analysis of empirical evidence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Bakker, K.F.C.; Boonstra, A.; Wortmann, J.C.

    The question whether risk management contributes to IT project success is considered relevant by people from both academic and practitioners' communities already for a long time. This paper presents a meta-analysis of the empirical evidence that either supports or opposes the claim that risk

  18. City of Iqaluit's climate change impacts, infrastructure risks and adaptive capacity project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nielsen, D.; Kronenberger, J.

    2007-03-01

    The City of Iqaluit is an Arctic community that is very susceptible to the stresses of climate change. The city is challenged by increased flooding, coastal erosion and ground instability caused by melting of the permafrost layer. In response, the City of Iqaluit has created policies to reduce greenhouse gases and act on climate change. A project has also been launched to develop adaptation strategies, with particular focus on infrastructure vulnerability given the environmental and climate change in the Canadian Arctic. The purpose of the study is to evaluate the biophysical exposure and hazards on Arctic coasts subject to effects of climate change, identify past and current management strategies used to manage risks in coastal communities which have already experienced environmental change, and to evaluate the adaptive capacity of communities for dealing with coastal hazards throughout the Arctic. This document identified the risks to Iqaluit's infrastructure, including buildings, roads, water supply, wastewater treatment and waste disposal systems. Adaptation options were also developed. These ranged from educational programs and retrofits to policy changes and building standard amendments. refs., tabs., figs

  19. The integration of the risk in the governance of urban projects: a key issue for a resilient city

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moulin, E.; Deroubaix, J.-F.

    2012-04-01

    Despite a severe regulation concerning the building in flooding areas, 80% of these areas are already built in the Greater Paris (Paris, Val-de-Marne, Hauts-de-Seine and Seine-Saint-Denis). The land use in flooding area is presented as one of the main solutions to solve the ongoing real estate pressure. For instance some of the industrial wastelands located along the river are currently in redevelopment and residential buildings are planned. So landuse in the flooding areas is currently a key issue in the development of the Greater Paris area. Tools and measures, structural or non-structural such as warning systems, barriers, etc do exist and could be a smart way to improve the resilience of the new urbanised areas. The technical solutions are available and efficient, but we notice that these tools are not much implemented. There is a lack of flood risk concern among the stakeholders and the inhabitants1. How landuse stakeholders could integrate the flood risk in the decision making process throughout the implementation of the urban project? Which type of governance favours an efficient development of good flood risk policy including prevention, protection and the management of the crisis? What is the "good" governance of the urban project e.g. enabling to take into account or not to forget the flood risk and to empower the (future) inhabitants? This inhabitants' empowerment includes the improvement of awareness (i.e. inhabitants being aware that they live in a flooded area) and the improvement of concern (i.e. inhabitants adopting the "right" behaviour when the risk occurs). In order to investigate how flood risk is or could be integrated in the project governance, we interviewed stakeholders (elected representatives, architects, property developers, etc.) and observed the integration or the vanishing of the risk throughout the project. In order to develop this topic we rely on a case study. The "Ardoines" is a project aiming at redeveloping an industrial site

  20. Modelling of risk events with uncertain likelihoods and impacts in large infrastructure projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schjær-Jacobsen, Hans

    2010-01-01

    to prevent future budget overruns. One of the central ideas is to introduce improved risk management processes and the present paper addresses this particular issue. A relevant cost function in terms of unit prices and quantities is developed and an event impact matrix with uncertain impacts from independent......This paper presents contributions to the mathematical core of risk and uncertainty management in compliance with the principles of New Budgeting laid out in 2008 by the Danish Ministry of Transport to be used in large infrastructure projects. Basically, the new principles are proposed in order...... uncertain risk events is used to calculate the total uncertain risk budget. Cost impacts from the individual risk events on the individual project activities are kept precisely track of in order to comply with the requirements of New Budgeting. Additionally, uncertain likelihoods for the occurrence of risk...

  1. Implementation of lean construction techniques for minimizing the risks effect on project construction time

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Usama Hamed Issa

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The construction projects involve various risk factors which have various impacts on time objective that may lead to time-overrun. This study suggests and applies a new technique for minimizing risk factors effect on time using lean construction principles. The lean construction is implemented in this study using the last planner system through execution of an industrial project in Egypt. Evaluating the effect of using the new tool is described in terms of two measurements: Percent Expected Time-overrun (PET and Percent Plan Completed (PPC. The most important risk factors are identified and assessed, while PET is quantified at the project start and during the project execution using a model for time-overrun quantification. The results showed that total project time is reduced by 15.57% due to decreasing PET values, while PPC values improved. This is due to minimizing and mitigating the effect of most of the risk factors in this project due to implementing lean construction techniques. The results proved that the quantification model is suitable for evaluating the effect of using lean construction techniques. In addition, the results showed that average value of PET due to factors affected by lean techniques represents 67% from PET values due to all minimized risk factors.

  2. ACCIDENT PHENOMENA OF RISK IMPORTANCE PROJECT - Continued RESEARCH CONCERNING SEVERE ACCIDENT PHENOMENA AND MANAGEMENT IN Sweden

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rolandson, S.; Mueller, F.; Loevenhielm, G.

    1997-01-01

    Since 1988 all reactors in Sweden have mitigating measures, such as filtered vents, implemented. In parallel with the work of implementing these measures, a cooperation effort (RAMA projects) between the Swedish utilities and the Nuclear Power Inspectorate was performed to acquire sufficient knowledge about severe accident research work. The on-going project has the name Accident Phenomena of Risk Importance 3. In this paper, we will give background information about severe accident management in Sweden. In the Accident Phenomena of Risk Importance 3 project we will focus on the work concerning coolability of melted core in lower plenum which is the main focus of the In-vessel Coolability Task Group within the Accident Phenomena of Risk Importance 3 project. The Accident Phenomena of Risk Importance 3 project has joined on international consortium and the in-vessel cooling experiments are performed by Fauske and Associates, Inc. in Burr Ridge, Illinois, United States America, Sweden also intends to do one separate experiment with one instrument penetration we have in Swedish/Finnish BWR's. Other parts of the Accident Phenomena of Risk Importance 3 project, such as support to level 2 studies, the research at Royal Institute of Technology and participation in international programs, such as Cooperative Severe Accident Research Program, Advanced Containment Experiments and PHEBUS will be briefly described in the paper

  3. Educational project on risk communication and reduction of the radon exposure in buildings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conrady, J.; Guhr, A.; Uhlig, R.

    2009-01-01

    The radon exposure in buildings is supposed to be the most important risk factor of lung cancer. In Saxony about 800 000 persons live in apartments with high radon exposure. The study discusses the effects of an educational project to communicate the facts on radon exposure in buildings and to develop risk awareness and individual initiatives to reduce the radon concentration. The project includes support and encouragement with respect of preventive and protective measures to improve the individual situation. Further items cover requirements for control and quantification of intervention impacts, development and optimization of specific strategies for a permanent risk communication in schools. Results of the pilot study are summarized.

  4. Mixtures of beta distributions in models of the duration of a project affected by risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gładysz, Barbara; Kuchta, Dorota

    2017-07-01

    This article presents a method for timetabling a project affected by risk. The times required to carry out tasks are modelled using mixtures of beta distributions. The parameters of these beta distributions are given by experts: one corresponding to the duration of a task in stable conditions, with no risks materializing, and the other corresponding to the duration of a task in the case when risks do occur. Finally, a case study will be presented and analysed: the project of constructing a shopping mall in Poland.

  5. Deep Uncertainty Surrounding Coastal Flood Risk Projections: A Case Study for New Orleans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Tony E.; Keller, Klaus

    2017-10-01

    Future sea-level rise drives severe risks for many coastal communities. Strategies to manage these risks hinge on a sound characterization of the uncertainties. For example, recent studies suggest that large fractions of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) may rapidly disintegrate in response to rising global temperatures, leading to potentially several meters of sea-level rise during the next few centuries. It is deeply uncertain, for example, whether such an AIS disintegration will be triggered, how much this would increase sea-level rise, whether extreme storm surges intensify in a warming climate, or which emissions pathway future societies will choose. Here, we assess the impacts of these deep uncertainties on projected flooding probabilities for a levee ring in New Orleans, LA. We use 18 scenarios, presenting probabilistic projections within each one, to sample key deeply uncertain future projections of sea-level rise, radiative forcing pathways, storm surge characterization, and contributions from rapid AIS mass loss. The implications of these deep uncertainties for projected flood risk are thus characterized by a set of 18 probability distribution functions. We use a global sensitivity analysis to assess which mechanisms contribute to uncertainty in projected flood risk over the course of a 50-year design life. In line with previous work, we find that the uncertain storm surge drives the most substantial risk, followed by general AIS dynamics, in our simple model for future flood risk for New Orleans.

  6. Investment Decision Support for Engineering Projects Based on Risk Correlation Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Liu

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Investment decisions are usually made on the basis of the subjective judgments of experts subjected to the information gap during the preliminary stages of a project. As a consequence, a series of errors in risk prediction and/or decision-making will be generated leading to out of control investment and project failure. In this paper, the variable fuzzy set theory and intelligent algorithms integrated with case-based reasoning are presented. The proposed algorithm manages the numerous fuzzy concepts and variable factors of a project and also sets up the decision-making process in accordance with past cases and experiences. Furthermore, it decreases the calculation difficulty and reduces the decision-making reaction time. Three types of risk correlations combined with different characteristics of engineering projects are summarized, and each of these correlations is expounded at the project investment decision-making stage. Quantitative and qualitative change theories of variable fuzzy sets are also addressed for investment risk warning. The approach presented in this paper enables the risk analysis in a simple and intuitive manner and realizes the integration of objective and subjective risk assessments within the decision-makers' risk expectation.

  7. The analysis of financial risk management application for NPP project in Indonesia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Imam Bastori; Moch Djoko Birmano

    2012-01-01

    NPP Project is one of full dynamic, risky and challenging business. Application of financial risk management t in Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) project becomes one alternative to be considered carefully. This paper explains an analysis to make a decision in the risk management application so that it can be applied in the NPP's construction in Indonesia. As case study, is NPP of conventional PWR type of class 1150 MWe. To calculate the economics and financing of NPP is used Spreadsheet INOVASI, further the decision of financial risk management were analyzed using a Model of Cash Flow Adjustment, which developed by Richard Fairchild. The analysis showed that the Method of Cash Flow Adjustment developed by Richard Fairchild is better than the method of NPV Adjustment on a NPP project, because it have included the aspects of financial risk management. NPP project can only be executed if the NPV 2 0 and decision to execute the financial risk management should be based on NPVrm > NPV. The application of financial risk management in NPP project is not needed if an insurance premium more expensive than all costs of financial distress, unless the insurance company can give discount of at least 20%. (author)

  8. Highlight report: Launch of a large integrated European in vitro toxicology project: EU-ToxRisk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daneshian, Mardas; Kamp, Hennicke; Hengstler, Jan; Leist, Marcel; van de Water, Bob

    2016-05-01

    The integrated European project, EU-ToxRisk, proudly sees itself as "flagship" exploring new alternative-to-animal approaches to chemical safety evaluation. It promotes mechanism-based toxicity testing and risk assessment according to the principles laid down for toxicology for the twenty-first century. The project was officially launched in January 2016 with a kickoff meeting in Egmond aan Zee, the Netherlands. Over 100 scientists representing academia and industry as well as regulatory authorities attended the inaugural meeting. The project will integrate advances in in vitro and in silico toxicology, read-across methods, and adverse outcome pathways. EU-ToxRisk will continue to make use of the case study strategy deployed in SEURAT-1, a FP7 initiative ended in December 2015. Even though the development of new non-animal methods is one target of EU-ToxRisk, the project puts special emphasis on their acceptance and implementation in regulatory contexts. This €30 million Horizon 2020 project involves 38 European partners and one from the USA. EU-ToxRisk aims at the "development of a new way of risk assessment."

  9. Evaluation of Risk Management Strategies for a Low-Cost, High-Risk Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shishko, Robert; Jorgensen, Edward J.

    1996-01-01

    This paper summarizes work in progress to define and implement a risk management process tailored to a low-cost, high-risk, NASA mission -the Microrover Flight Experiment (MFEX, commonly called the Mars microrover).

  10. Comparative risk analysis for the Rocky Flats Plant integrated project planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, M.E.; Shain, D.I.

    1994-01-01

    The Rocky Flats Plant is developing, with active stakeholder a comprehensive planning strategy that will support transition of the Rocky Flats Plant from a nuclear weapons production facility to site cleanup and final disposition. Final disposition of the Rocky Flats Plant materials and contaminants requires consideration of the interrelated nature of sitewide problems, such as material movement and disposition, facility and land use endstates, costs relative risks to workers and the public, and waste disposition. Comparative Risk Analysis employs both incremental risk and cumulative risk evaluations to compare risks from postulated options or endstates. These postulated options or endstates can be various remedial alternatives, or future endstate uses of federal agency land. Currently, there does not exist any approved methodology that aggregates various incremental risk estimates. Comparative Risk Analysis has been developed to aggregate various incremental risk estimates to develop a site cumulative risk estimate. This paper discusses development of the Comparative Risk Analysis methodology, stakeholder participation and lessons learned from these challenges

  11. Risk management, financial evaluation and funding for wastewater and stormwater reuse projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furlong, Casey; De Silva, Saman; Gan, Kein; Guthrie, Lachlan; Considine, Robert

    2017-04-15

    This paper has considered risk management, financial evaluation and funding in seven Australian wastewater and stormwater reuse projects. From the investigated case studies it can be seen that responsible parties have generally been well equipped to identify potential risks. In relation to financial evaluation methods some serious discrepancies, such as time periods for analysis, and how stormwater benefits are valued, have been identified. Most of the projects have required external, often National Government, funding to proceed. As National funding is likely to become less common in the future, future reuse projects may need to be funded internally by the water industry. In order to enable this the authors propose that the industry requires (1) a standard project evaluation process, and (2) an infrastructure funders' forum (or committee) with representation from both utilities and regulators, in order to compare and prioritise future reuse projects against each other. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Statistically downscaled climate projections to support evaluating climate change risks for hydropower

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brekke, L.

    2008-01-01

    This paper described a web-served public access archive of down-scaled climate projections developed as a tool for water managers of river and hydropower systems. The archive provided access to climate projection data at basin-relevant resolution and included an extensive compilation of down-scale climate projects designed to support risk-based adaptation planning. Downscaled translations of 112 contemporary climate projections produced using the World Climate Research Program's coupled model intercomparison project were also included. Datasets for the coupled model included temperature and precipitation, monthly time-steps, and geographic coverage for the United States and portions of Mexico and Canada. It was concluded that the archive will be used to develop risk-based studies on shifts in seasonal patterns, changes in mean annual runoff, and associated responses in water resources and hydroelectric power management. Case studies demonstrating reclamation applications of archive content and potential applications for hydroelectric power production impacts were included. tabs., figs

  13. Simulated Annealing Genetic Algorithm Based Schedule Risk Management of IT Outsourcing Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fuqiang Lu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available IT outsourcing is an effective way to enhance the core competitiveness for many enterprises. But the schedule risk of IT outsourcing project may cause enormous economic loss to enterprise. In this paper, the Distributed Decision Making (DDM theory and the principal-agent theory are used to build a model for schedule risk management of IT outsourcing project. In addition, a hybrid algorithm combining simulated annealing (SA and genetic algorithm (GA is designed, namely, simulated annealing genetic algorithm (SAGA. The effect of the proposed model on the schedule risk management problem is analyzed in the simulation experiment. Meanwhile, the simulation results of the three algorithms GA, SA, and SAGA show that SAGA is the most superior one to the other two algorithms in terms of stability and convergence. Consequently, this paper provides the scientific quantitative proposal for the decision maker who needs to manage the schedule risk of IT outsourcing project.

  14. How to manage project opportunity and risk why uncertainty management can be a much better approach than risk management

    CERN Document Server

    Ward, Stephen

    2011-01-01

    Since I wrote the Foreword for the second edition of this book, risk management processes have become much more widely used, but controversy about what should be done and how best to do it has grown. Managing risk is a risky business. Chapman and Ward provide an in-depth explanation of why it is important to understand and manage underlying uncertainty in all its forms, in order to realise opportunities more fully and enhance corporate performance. They show what best practice should look like. The implications go well beyond the conventional wisdom of project risk management, providing an enl

  15. Current status and perspective of advanced loop type fast reactor in fast reactor cycle technology development project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niwa, Hajime; Aoto, Kazumi; Morishita, Masaki

    2007-01-01

    After selecting the combination of the sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) with oxide fuel, the advanced aqueous reprocessing and the simplified pelletizing fuel fabrication as the most promising concept of FR cycle system, 'Feasibility Study on Commercialized Fast Reactor Cycle Systems' was finalized in 2006. Instead, a new project, Fast Reactor Cycle Technology Development Project (FaCT Project) was launched in Japan focusing on development of the selected concepts. This paper describes the current status and perspective of the advanced loop type SFR system in the FaCT Project, especially on the design requirements, current design as well as the related innovative technologies together with the development road-map. Some considerations on advantages of the advanced loop type design are also described. (authors)

  16. RIBA Project - Risk-Informed approach for In-Service Inspection of Nuclear Power Plant Components. Project summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lidbury, D.; Smith, G.

    2001-12-01

    The need for a European review of a Risk-Informed Approach for In-Service Inspection of Nuclear Power Plant Components (RIBA) was identified in 1998. This was as a priority item in the programme of activities conducted in the framework of the Council Resolutions of 22 July 1975 and of 18 June 1992 on the Technological Problems of Nuclear Safety. The RIBA Project was established in November 1999 as a 24-month Study Contract funded by the European Commission within the frame of the former DG XI WGCS (Working Group on Codes and Standards). The Study Contract was subsequently managed for the EC by DG TREN. The participants in RIBA were Serco Assurance (project coordinator), Ringhals AB, EDF, Tecnatom SA and Westinghouse Electric Europe. The work is presented in a summary report with the detailed results contained in three companion reports as follows: main conclusions and recommendations, Review of Existing Risk-Informed Methodologies, A Comparative Study of Risk-Informed In-Service Inspection Applications, Conclusions and Recommendations for Risk-Informed in-service inspection methodology applied to Nuclear Power Plants in Europe. (author)

  17. Current Roles and Future Applications of Cardiac CT: Risk Stratification of Coronary Artery Disease

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoon, Yeonyee Elizabeth [Department of Cardiology, Cardiovascular Center, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Seongnam 463-707 (Korea, Republic of); Lim, Tae-Hwan [Department of Radiology and Research Institute of Radiology, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Asan Medical Center, Seoul 138-736 (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-07-01

    Cardiac computed tomography (CT) has emerged as a noninvasive modality for the assessment of coronary artery disease (CAD), and has been rapidly integrated into clinical cares. CT has changed the traditional risk stratification based on clinical risk to image-based identification of patient risk. Cardiac CT, including coronary artery calcium score and coronary CT angiography, can provide prognostic information and is expected to improve risk stratification of CAD. Currently used conventional cardiac CT, provides accurate anatomic information but not functional significance of CAD, and it may not be sufficient to guide treatments such as revascularization. Recently, myocardial CT perfusion imaging, intracoronary luminal attenuation gradient, and CT-derived computed fractional flow reserve were developed to combine anatomical and functional data. Although at present, the diagnostic and prognostic value of these novel technologies needs to be evaluated further, it is expected that all-in-one cardiac CT can guide treatment and improve patient outcomes in the near future.

  18. The Consortium for Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast: A NOAA RISA Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, C.

    2011-12-01

    The Consortium for Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast, or CCRUN, was funded in October 2010 under NOAA's Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) program to serve stakeholder needs in assessing and managing risks from climate variability and change. It is currently also the only RISA team with a principal focus on climate change adaptation in urban settings. While CCRUN's initial focus is on the major cities of the urban Northeast corridor (Philadelphia, New York and Boston), its work will ultimately expand to cover small and medium-sized cities in the relevant portions of Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania as well, so that local needs for targeted climate-risk information can be served in a coordinated way. CCRUN is designed to address the complex challenges that are associated with densely populated, highly interconnected urban areas, including such as urban heat island effects; poor air quality; intense coastal development, and multifunctional settlement along inland waterways; complex overlapping institutional jurisdictions; integrated infrastructure systems; and highly diverse, and in some cases, fragile socio-economic communities. These challenges can best be addressed by the stakeholder-driven interdisciplinary approach taken by the CCRUN RISA team. As an important added benefit, the research accomplishments and lessons learned through stakeholder engagement will provide a foundation for managing climate risks in other urban areas in the United States. CCRUN's initial projects are focused in three broad sectors: Water, Coasts, and Health. Research in each of these sectors is linked through the cross-cutting themes of climate change and community vulnerability, the latter of which is especially important in considerations of environmental justice and equity. CCRUN's stakeholder-driven approach to research can therefore support investigations of the impacts of a changing climate, population growth, and

  19. EU's CO2 trade a high risk project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wellander, Dag

    2003-01-01

    The uncertainty about the planned CO 2 trade of the European Union (EU) is very great. For the possible buyers in this politically created market the risks may be great and difficult to assess. The most effective way of forcing a reduction of emissions is trading emission licences. But this requires taking a stand on issues of very unpleasant nature. And the Kyoto protocol evades these questions, it is a thin document right from the beginning. Trade in emission licences is one of the three so-called flexible mechanisms of the Kyoto agreement. The second mechanism is joint implementation in which one industrialized country carries out emission reduction actions in another industrialized country. The third is the mechanism of clean development, in which one industrialized country takes remedial actions in a developing country. It is unclear how these mechanisms are to act in accordance with each other, both in the Kyoto Protocol and on the level of the EU. The biggest and most fundamental uncertainty, both on the EU and global levels, relates to the fact that the partners have not decided how to define the right of ownership of emissions of a certain size

  20. Projections in the national mining development plan (NMDP using @risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Franco-Sepúlveda

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available La industria de la minería en Colombia ha alcanzado una importa nte posición en el mercado internacional y en la economía nacio nal; por esto, con el fin de describir la dinámica del mercado minero, analiza r la estructura de la industria y hacer una comparación con las estimaciones de producción de minerales dadas a conocer en el Plan Nacional de Desarrollo Minero (PNDM de la Unidad de Planeación Minero-Ener gética (UPME, se implementará la herramienta @Risk. Esta herramienta y la metodología que se define en el presente artículo, permite incluir la incertidumbre y el riesgo en las estimaciones, en una simulació n que genera una proyección con un horizonte temporal al año 20 19 de la extracción histórica (teniendo en cuenta la extracción entre lo s años 1970 al 2013 de carbón, oro y calizas, construyendo mod elos alternativos que pueden replicarse por la institucionalidad minera en los fu turos PNDM y en sus respectivas actualizaciones.

  1. Managing Pre-Construction and Construction Risks on Project Sites in Abuja-Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jimoh R.A.

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Managing risks in construction projects has been acknowledged as a key direction process for the purposes of attaining the project goal in terms of time, cost, quality, safety, and environmental sustainability. Hence, the paper evaluated pre-construction and construction risks on active project sites in Abuja-Nigeria. This was achieved using survey method through the self-administration of 35 questionnaires to the professionals handling the 35 identified projects being undertaking at that time. Results showed that errors and omissions in design and improperly defined project scope had mean score values of 3.03 and 2.54, respectively, were the construction risks most experienced by the professionals during pre-construction. On the other hand, fluctuation in market prices and delays with mean score values of 3.14 and 2.74, respectively, were the construction risks experienced by the professionals during the construction phase of the projects. It is recommended that procurement methods such as construction management should be adopted and stakeholders should keep to their own side of the bargain to avoid unnecessary delays.

  2. Quantitative risk management in gas injection project: a case study from Oman oil and gas industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khadem, Mohammad Miftaur Rahman Khan; Piya, Sujan; Shamsuzzoha, Ahm

    2017-09-01

    The purpose of this research was to study the recognition, application and quantification of the risks associated in managing projects. In this research, the management of risks in an oil and gas project is studied and implemented within a case company in Oman. In this study, at first, the qualitative data related to risks in the project were identified through field visits and extensive interviews. These data were then translated into numerical values based on the expert's opinion. Further, the numerical data were used as an input to Monte Carlo simulation. RiskyProject Professional™ software was used to simulate the system based on the identified risks. The simulation result predicted a delay of about 2 years as a worse case with no chance of meeting the project's on stream date. Also, it has predicted 8% chance of exceeding the total estimated budget. The result of numerical analysis from the proposed model is validated by comparing it with the result of qualitative analysis, which was obtained through discussion with various project managers of company.

  3. The 12-lead electrocardiogram and risk of sudden death: current utility and future prospects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narayanan, Kumar; Chugh, Sumeet S

    2015-10-01

    More than 100 years after it was first invented, the 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) continues to occupy an important place in the diagnostic armamentarium of the practicing clinician. With the recognition of relatively rare but important clinical entities such as Wolff-Parkinson-White and the long QT syndrome, this clinical tool was firmly established as a test for assessing risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD). However, over the past two decades the role of the ECG in risk prediction for common forms of SCD, for example in patients with coronary artery disease, has been the focus of considerable investigation. Especially in light of the limitations of current risk stratification approaches, there is a renewed focus on this broadly available and relatively inexpensive test. Various abnormalities of depolarization and repolarization on the ECG have been linked to SCD risk; however, more focused work is needed before they can be deployed in the clinical arena. The present review summarizes the current knowledge on various ECG risk markers for prediction of SCD and discusses some future directions in this field. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author 2015. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  4. Risk Consideration and Cost Estimation in Construction Projects Using Monte Carlo Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudius A. Peleskei

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Construction projects usually involve high investments. It is, therefore, a risky adventure for companies as actual costs of construction projects nearly always exceed the planed scenario. This is due to the various risks and the large uncertainty existing within this industry. Determination and quantification of risks and their impact on project costs within the construction industry is described to be one of the most difficult areas. This paper analyses how the cost of construction projects can be estimated using Monte Carlo Simulation. It investigates if the different cost elements in a construction project follow a specific probability distribution. The research examines the effect of correlation between different project costs on the result of the Monte Carlo Simulation. The paper finds out that Monte Carlo Simulation can be a helpful tool for risk managers and can be used for cost estimation of construction projects. The research has shown that cost distributions are positively skewed and cost elements seem to have some interdependent relationships.

  5. Current drinking and health-risk behaviors among male high school students in central Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pichainarong Natchaporn

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Alcohol drinking is frequently related to behavioral problems, which lead to a number of negative consequences. This study was to evaluate the characteristics of male high school students who drink, the drinking patterns among them, and the associations between current drinking and other health risk behaviors which focused on personal safety, violence-related behaviors, suicide and sexual behaviors. Method A cross-sectional study was conducted to explore current alcohol drinking and health-risk behaviors among male high school students in central Thailand. Five thousand one hundred and eighty four male students were classified into 2 groups according to drinking in the previous 30 days (yes = 631, no = 4,553. Data were collected by self-administered, anonymous questionnaire which consisted of 3 parts: socio-demographic factors, health-risk behaviors and alcohol drinking behavior during the past year from December 2007 to February 2008. Results The results showed that the percent of current drinking was 12.17. Most of them were 15-17 years (50.21%. Socio-demographic factors such as age, educational level, residence, cohabitants, grade point average (GPA, having a part time job and having family members with alcohol/drug problems were significantly associated with alcohol drinking (p Conclusions An increased risk of health-risk behaviors, including driving vehicles after drinking, violence-related behaviors, sad feelings and attempted suicide, and sexual behaviors was higher among drinking students that led to significant health problems. Effective intervention strategies (such as a campaign mentioning the adverse health effects and social consequences to the risk groups, and encouraging parental and community efforts to prevent drinking among adolescents should be implemented to prevent underage drinking and adverse consequences.

  6. Alcohol consumption and low-risk drinking guidelines among adults: a cross-sectional analysis from Alberta's Tomorrow Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brenner, Darren R; Haig, Tiffany R; Poirier, Abbey E; Akawung, Alianu; Friedenreich, Christine M; Robson, Paula J

    2017-12-01

    Moderate to heavy alcohol consumption is a risk factor for all-cause mortality and cancer incidence. Although cross-sectional data are available through national surveys, data on alcohol consumption in Alberta from a large prospective cohort were not previously available. The goal of these analyses was to characterize the levels of alcohol consumption among adults from the Alberta's Tomorrow Project in the context of cancer prevention guidelines. Furthermore, we conducted analyses to examine the relationships between alcohol consumption and other high-risk or risk-related behaviours. Between 2001 and 2009, 31 072 men and women aged 35 to 69 years were enrolled into Alberta's Tomorrow Project, a large provincial cohort study. Data concerning alcohol consumption in the past 12 months were obtained from 26 842 participants who completed self-administered health and lifestyle questionnaires. We conducted cross-sectional analyses on daily alcohol consumption and cancer prevention guidelines for alcohol use in relation to sociodemographic factors. We also examined the combined prevalence of alcohol consumption and tobacco use, obesity and comorbidities. Approximately 14% of men and 12% of women reported alcohol consumption exceeding recommendations for cancer prevention. Higher alcohol consumption was reported in younger age groups, urban dwellers, those with higher incomes and those who consumed more red meat. Moreover, volume of daily alcohol consumption was positively associated with current tobacco use in both men and women. Overall, men were more likely to fall in the moderate and high-risk behavioural profiles and show higher daily alcohol consumption patterns compared to women. Despite public health messages concerning the adverse impact of alcohol consumption, a sizeable proportion of Alberta's Tomorrow Project participants consumed alcohol in excess of cancer prevention recommendations. Continued strategies to promote low-risk drinking among those who choose to

  7. Fisher research and the Kings River Sustainable Forest Ecosystem Project: current results and future efforts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brian B. Boroski; Richard T. Golightly; Amie K. Mazzoni; Kimberly A. Sager

    2002-01-01

    The Kings River Sustainable Forest Ecosystems Project was initiated on the Kings River Ranger District of the Sierra National Forest, California, in 1993, with fieldwork beginning in 1994. Knowledge of the ecology of the fisher (Martes pennanti) in the Project area, and in the Sierra Nevada of California in general, is insufficient to develop...

  8. Project Half Double: Current Results of Phase 1 and Phase 2, December 2017

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svejvig, Per; Thorp Adland, Karoline; Zippora Klein, Judith Birte

    ’s competitiveness and play an important role in the battle for jobs and future welfare. The overall goal is to deliver “Projects in half the time with double the impact” where projects in half the time should be understood as half the time to impact (benefit realization, effect is achieved) and not as half the time...... of Project Half Double was initiated in June 2015. It is a two-phase project: phase 1 took place from June 2015 to June 2016 with seven pilot projects, and phase 2 is in progress from July 2016 to July 2018 with 10 pilot projects. The Half Double consortium: Implement Consulting Group is the project leader....... 2016, Svejvig et al. 2017). This report’s target group inludes practitioners in Danish industry and society in general. The editorial team from Aarhus University prepared the report from October 2017 to December 2017, which means that data about pilot projects from December 2017 is not included....

  9. Current status of the KNPP units 1 to 4 decommissioning projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benbow, R.

    2010-01-01

    The PMU has been established in support of the KNPP Decommissioning Division. All of the Infrastructure Projects associated with Decommissioning have been identified. All the major projects are either in Contract or have the Tender Packages prepared and are being managed/implemented through the EBRD Procurement Process. KNPP Decommissioning is being supported with the necessary documentation, tools and equipment

  10. RISK ASSESSMENT IN PROJECT PLANNING USING FMEA AND CRITICAL PATH METHOD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandra Milena CHOLES ARVILLA

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper is based upon the research undertaken for the development of the doctoral thesis “Management of software projects based on object-oriented technology”. The study examines the existing risk management practices commonly used for classic software development. The goal is to integrate the elements of the traditional risk management methodologies to create a new agile risk management methodology. The thesis focuses on techniques that can be easily implemented in extreme programming (XP and SCRUM. This study is motivated by the following research questions: What are the elements of existing quality assurance tools that could meet the principles of agile development? And is it possible to use risk estimation for improving quality in agile projects? The thesis presents a synthesis of the most common risk management techniques, as well as an introduction to agile methods XP and SCRUM. The proposal integrates the concepts of Failure Mode and Effect Analysis into the iterative life cycle of an agile software project. The thesis presents a metamodel which integrates the concepts of agile development methodologies: SCRUM and XP with the FMEA concepts for risk quantification. The model was partly implemented into a real development project. Partial results show the improvement in early identification of failures and allowed to reconsider the Sprint plan.

  11. Design optimization of 600 A-13 kA current leads for the Large Hadron Collider project at CERN

    CERN Document Server

    Spiller, D M; Al-Mosawl, M K; Friend, C M; Thacker, P; Ballarino, A

    2001-01-01

    The requirements of the Large Hadron Collider project at CERN for high-temperature superconducting (HTS) current leads have been widely publicized. CERN require hybrid current leads of resistive and HTS materials with current ratings of 600 A, 6 kA and 13 kA. BICC General Superconductors, in collaboration with the University of Southampton, have developed and manufactured prototype current leads for the Large Hadron Collider project. The resistive section consists of a phosphorus de-oxidized copper conductor and heat exchanger and the HTS section is constructed from BICC General's (Pb, Bi)2223 tapes with a reduced thermal conductivity Ag alloy sheath. We present the results of the materials optimization studies for the resistive and the HTS sections. Some results of the acceptance tests at CERN are discussed. (9 refs).

  12. Current status and future expectation concerning probabilistic risk assessment of NPPs. 1. Features and issues of probabilistic risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamashita, Masahiro

    2012-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) could play an important role in assuring safety of NPPs. However PRA had not always effectively used, which was indicated in Japanese government's report on Fukushima Daiichi NPP accident. At the Risk Technical Committee (RTC) of Standards Committee of Atomic Energy Society of Japan, preparation of standards (implementing criteria) focusing on PRA methodology and investigation on basic philosophy for use of PRA had been in progress. Based on activities of RTC, a serial in three articles including this described current status and future expectation concerning probabilistic risk assessment of NPPs. This article introduced features and issues of PRA methodology related to the use of PRA. Features of PRA methodology could be shown as (1) systematic and comprehensive understanding of risk, (2) support of grading approach, (3) identification of effective safety upgrade measures and (4) quantitative understanding of effects of uncertainty. Issues of PRA methodology were (1) extension of PRA application area, (2) upgrade of PRA methodology, (3) quality assurance of PRA, (4) treatment of uncertainty and (5) quantitative evaluation criteria. (T. Tanaka)

  13. Implementing Brief Interventions in Health Care: Lessons Learned from the Swedish Risk Drinking Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Per Nilsen

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available The Risk Drinking Project was a national implementation endeavour in Sweden, carried out from 2004 to 2010, based on a government initiative to give alcohol issues a more prominent place in routine primary, child, maternity and occupational health care. The article describes and analyses the project. Critical factors that were important for the results are identified. The magnitude of the project contributed to its reach and impact in terms of providers’ awareness of the project goals and key messages. The timing of the project was appropriate. The increase in alcohol consumption in Sweden and diminished opportunities for primary prevention strategies since entry to the European Union in 1995 have led to increased expectations for health care providers to become more actively involved in alcohol prevention. This awareness provided favourable conditions for this project. A multifaceted approach was used in the project. Most educational courses were held in workshops and seminars to encourage learning-by-doing. Motivational interviewing was an integral aspect. The concept of risk drinking was promoted in all the activities. Subprojects were tailored to the specific conditions of each respective setting, building on the skills the providers already had to modify existing work practices. Nurses were afforded a key role in the project.

  14. Lessons learned from current Qinshan CANDU project and the impact on future NPP's

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hedges, K. R.; Didsbury, R.; Yu, S. K. W.

    2000-01-01

    AECL has adopted an evolutionary approach to the development of the CANDU 6 and CANDU 9 Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) designs. Each new NPP project benefits from previous projects and contains an increasing number of fully proven enhancements. In accordance with this evolutionary design approach, AECL has built on the Wolsong and Qinshan successes and the solid performance of the reference CANDU stations to define, review and implement the enhancements for the CANDU 9 NPP. Some of these enhancements include fully integrated project information systems and databases, safety enhancements coming from PSA studies and licensing activities, distributed control systems for plant-wide control and an advanced control center which addresses human factors engineering concepts. Examples of the Qinshan CANDU project delivery enhancements are the utilization of electronic engineering tools for the complete plant, and the linking of these tools with the project material management system and document management systems. The project information is reviewed and approved at the engineering office in Canada and then transmitted to site electronically. Once the electronic data is at site the information packages are extracted as necessary to enable construction and facilitate contract needs with minimum effort. This paper will provide details of the CANDU Qinshan project experiences as well as describing some of the corresponding CANDU 9 enhancements. (author)

  15. Inventory of current environmental monitoring projects in the US-Canadian transboundary region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Glantz, C.S.; Ballinger, M.Y.; Chapman, E.G.

    1986-05-01

    This document presents the results of a study commissioned to survey and summarize major environmental monitoring projects in the US-Canadian transboundary region. Projects with field sites located within 400 km (250 mi) of the border and active after 1980 were reviewed. The types of projects included: ambient air-quality monitoring, ambient water-quality monitoring, deposition monitoring, forest/vegetation monitoring and research, soil studies, and ecosystem studies. Ecosystem studies included projects involving the measurement of parameters from more than one monitoring category (e.g., studies that measured both water and soil chemistry). Individual descriptions were formulated for 184 projects meeting the spatial and temporal criteria. Descriptions included the official title for the project, its common abbreviation, program emphasis, monitoring site locations, time period conducted, parameters measured, protocols employed, frequency of sample collection, data storage information, and the principal contact for the project. A summary inventory subdivided according to the six monitoring categories was prepared using a computerized data management system. Information on major centralized data bases in the field of environmental monitoring was also obtained, and summary descriptions were prepared. The inventory and data base descriptions are presented in appendices to this document.

  16. Transcranial alternating current stimulation (tACS increases risk taking behavior in the Balloon Analogue Risk Task

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tal eSela

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available The process of evaluating risks and benefits involves a complex neural network that includes the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC. It has been proposed that in conflict and reward situations, theta-band (4–8 Hz oscillatory activity in the frontal cortex may reflect an electrophysiological mechanism for coordinating neural networks monitoring behavior, as well as facilitating task-specific adaptive changes. The goal of the present study was to investigate the hypothesis that theta-band oscillatory balance between right and left frontal and prefrontal regions, with a predominance role to the right hemisphere, is crucial for regulatory control during decision-making under risk. In order to explore this hypothesis, we used transcranial Alternating Current Stimulation (tACS, a novel technique that provides the opportunity to explore the functional role of neuronal oscillatory activities and to establish a causal link between specific oscillations and functional lateralization in risky decision-making situations. For this aim, healthy participants were randomly allocated to one of three stimulation groups (LH stimulation / RH stimulation / Sham stimulation, with active AC stimulation delivered in a frequency-dependent manner (at 6.5 Hz; 1mA peak to-peak. During the AC stimulation, participants performed the Balloon Analog Risk Task. This experiment revealed that participants receiving LH stimulation displayed riskier decision-making style compared to sham and RH stimulation groups. However, there was no difference in decision-making behaviors between sham and RH stimulation groups. The current study extends the notion that DLPFC activity is critical for adaptive decision-making in the context of risk-taking and emphasis the role of theta-band oscillatory activity during risky decision-making situations.

  17. Development of a Blueprint Impact System of the risks on construction projects Implementation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Entisar Kadhim Rasheed

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available In Production and Operations Management the specialists have tried to develop a strategy to counter the risks arising from the activities of the organization and of waste of various types and therefore the risk management in the contemporary framework represents a phenomenon of new quality, and can not be this phenomenon to take practical dimensions, but the development of culture of the organization towards the risks and deal with all aspects and paint ways to address them within an integrated program, and requires new skills and systems provide accurate information capable of coordination between the various parties within the organization. The research aims to develop a blue print to analyze the relationship between the impact of risk and stages of implementing of the project and, the effect of risk relationship with the type of contract, and the impact of risks to do with the type of construction works. In this paper a number of risks has been identified that have already occurred from the study of a number of construction projects completed and theoretical studies and interview a number of construction industry experts to determine the extent of the impact of these risks in each of these three axes in construction projects in Iraq for the purpose of responding and management. The study found a set of conclusions such as existing of priority in happiness of risks which proof that there is an relationship between the risks and sort of stage, contract and constructional work. In the light of what has been reached for the purpose of benefiting from the computer automated features a program have been used ( Vanguard Software System to build the decision tree in order to manage the risks according to their priority in happiness.

  18. Risk assessment by integrating interpretive structural modeling and Bayesian network, case of offshore pipeline project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Wei-Shing; Yang, Chen-Feng; Chang, Jung-Chuan; Château, Pierre-Alexandre; Chang, Yang-Chi

    2015-01-01

    The sound development of marine resource usage relies on a strong maritime engineering industry. The perilous marine environment poses the highest risk to all maritime work. It is therefore imperative to reduce the risk associated with maritime work by using some analytical methods other than engineering techniques. This study addresses this issue by using an integrated interpretive structure modeling (ISM) and Bayesian network (BN) approach in a risk assessment context. Mitigating or managing maritime risk relies primarily on domain expert experience and knowledge. ISM can be used to incorporate expert knowledge in a systematic manner and helps to impose order and direction on complex relationships that exist among system elements. Working with experts, this research used ISM to clearly specify an engineering risk factor relationship represented by a cause–effect diagram, which forms the structure of the BN. The expert subjective judgments were further transformed into a prior and conditional probability set to be embedded in the BN. We used the BN to evaluate the risks of two offshore pipeline projects in Taiwan. The results indicated that the BN can provide explicit risk information to support better project management. - Highlights: • We adopt an integrated method for risk assessment of offshore pipeline projects. • We conduct semi-structural interview with the experts for risk factor identification. • Interpretive structural modeling helps to form the digraph of Bayesian network (BN) • We perform the risk analysis with the experts by building a BN. • Risk evaluations of two case studies using the BN show effectiveness of the methods

  19. Allocating risk capital for a brownfields redevelopment project under hydrogeological and financial uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Soonyoung; Unger, Andre J A; Parker, Beth; Kim, Taehee

    2012-06-15

    In this study, we defined risk capital as the contingency fee or insurance premium that a brownfields redeveloper needs to set aside from the sale of each house in case they need to repurchase it at a later date because the indoor air has been detrimentally affected by subsurface contamination. The likelihood that indoor air concentrations will exceed a regulatory level subject to subsurface heterogeneity and source zone location uncertainty is simulated by a physics-based hydrogeological model using Monte Carlo realizations, yielding the probability of failure. The cost of failure is the future value of the house indexed to the stochastic US National Housing index. The risk capital is essentially the probability of failure times the cost of failure with a surcharge to compensate the developer against hydrogeological and financial uncertainty, with the surcharge acting as safety loading reflecting the developers' level of risk aversion. We review five methodologies taken from the actuarial and financial literature to price the risk capital for a highly stylized brownfield redevelopment project, with each method specifically adapted to accommodate our notion of the probability of failure. The objective of this paper is to develop an actuarially consistent approach for combining the hydrogeological and financial uncertainty into a contingency fee that the brownfields developer should reserve (i.e. the risk capital) in order to hedge their risk exposure during the project. Results indicate that the price of the risk capital is much more sensitive to hydrogeological rather than financial uncertainty. We use the Capital Asset Pricing Model to estimate the risk-adjusted discount rate to depreciate all costs to present value for the brownfield redevelopment project. A key outcome of this work is that the presentation of our risk capital valuation methodology is sufficiently generalized for application to a wide variety of engineering projects. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier

  20. Risk assessment based on current release standards for radioactive surface contamination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, S.Y.

    1993-09-01

    Standards for uncontrolled releases of radioactive surface contamination have been in existence in the United States for about two decades. Such standards have been issued by various agencies, including the US Department of Energy. This paper reviews the technical basis of published standards, identifies areas in need of revision, provides risk interpretations based on current technical knowledge and the regulatory environment, and offers suggestions for improvements

  1. Did our current initial treatment practice change after EAU/ESPU vesicoureteral reflux risk grouping?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tokat, Eda; Gurocak, Serhat; Ure, Iyimser; Acar, Cenk; Sınık, Zafer; Tan, Mustafa Ozgur

    2018-06-02

    The "European Association of Urology (EAU) Guidelines on Vesicoureteral Reflux (VUR) in Children (September 2012)" established risk classification by analyzing and defining risk factors for each patient. In this study we aimed to investigate how our initial treatment procedures were affected by EAU/ESPU guideline vesicoureteral reflux risk grouping and to compare the early clinical results of treatments performed before and after the risk classification in our patients with VUR. 334 renal units with regular clinical follow-up who were treated owing to VUR (vesicoureteral reflux) between years 2009 and 2017 were retrospectively reviewed. Preoperative clinical parameters such as grade and laterality of reflux, presence of renal scar, initial and follow-up treatments, findings of medical treatment and surgical procedures were analyzed. The initial medical and surgical methods were compared by categorizing patients according to risk groups before and after 2013. Mean age and follow-up duration were 71.4(6-216) months and 47(4-141) months, respectively. Among the preoperative parameters, only high EAU risk group (p = 0.01) and treating lower urinary tract symptoms (p age, sex, and presence of renal scar at DMSA were not affecting the success of treatment significantly. While no significant difference in medical and surgical treatment rates is observed after risk grouping system in low risk group, the percentages of patients who are treated with surgical methods initially were significantly decreased in moderate and high risk groups (p = 0.002 and p = 0.012, respectively). We determined that VUR risk grouping did not change clinical success significantly in all risk groups. Despite the fact that EAU/ESPU VUR risk classification changed our current practice in terms of initial treatment method, this different approach did not seem to affect early clinical success positively. There is still an absolute need for studies with larger sample size and long

  2. Evaluation of Current Automated Civil Engineer System Non-Appropriated Funds Project Programming Procedures

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ligday, Joshua

    2004-01-01

    ...) project programming business rules within ACES. These problem areas were not addressed until recently when an integrated process team met and proposed numerous changes to how NAF programming is accomplished in ACES...

  3. How Would an Eight-Division Army Meet Current and Likely Projected Strategic Requirements

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Cannon, Michael

    2001-01-01

    .... Given today's demographics and the projected future demographics of the primary recruited population of males and females ages 17 to 24, this challenge will only intensify as the Army and the other...

  4. Assessment of risks due to climate change for the Upper Tamakoshi Hydropower Project in Nepal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sangam Shrestha

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change poses significant challenges to hydropower development and management in mountainous basins. This study examined the impact of climate change, and the associated risks, on the energy production of the Upper Tamakoshi Hydropower Project, which is located in the Tamakoshi basin of Nepal. The outputs of three GCMs—namely MIROC-ESM, MRI-CGCM3, and MPI-ESM-M—under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP scenarios were used for the projection of precipitation and temperature in the future. The minimum and maximum temperatures of the basin are projected to increase by 6.33 °C and 3.82 °C, respectively, by 2100. The projected precipitation varies from −8% to +24.8%, which is expected to alter the streamflow by −37.83% to +47% in the future. Based on the streamflow output, the risk for energy production was calculated with respect to the baseline energy production of 1963 GW h and 2281 GW h. Using the three GCMs, the risk associated with annual hydropower production under altered runoff was analyzed. The risk percentage in the future periods shows a mild risk varying from 0.69% to 6.63%. MPI-ESM-M GCM projects a higher percentage of risk for energy production during the same future periods, as compared to the baseline energy production of 1963 GW h. A mild to moderate risk, ranging from 2.73% to 13.24% can be expected when energy production in the future is compared to the baseline energy production of 2281 GW h.

  5. Current Conditions Risk Assessment for the 300-FF-5 Groundwater Operable Unit

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miley, Terri B.; Bunn, Amoret L.; Napier, Bruce A.; Peterson, Robert E.; Becker, James M.

    2007-11-01

    This report updates a baseline risk assessment for the 300 Area prepared in 1994. The update includes consideration of changes in contaminants of interest and in the environment that have occurred during the period of interim remedial action, i.e., 1996 to the present, as well as the sub-regions, for which no initial risk assessments have been conducted. In 1996, a record of decision (ROD) stipulated interim remedial action for groundwater affected by releases from 300 Area sources, as follows: (a) continued monitoring of groundwater that is contaminated above health-based levels to ensure that concentrations continue to decrease, and (b) institutional controls to ensure that groundwater use is restricted to prevent unacceptable exposure to groundwater contamination. In 2000, the groundwater beneath the two outlying sub-regions was added to the operable unit. In 2001, the first 5-year review of the ROD found that the interim remedy and remedial action objectives were still appropriate, although the review called for additional characterization activities. This report includes a current conditions baseline ecological and human health risk assessment using maximum concentrations in the environmental media of the 300-FF-5 Operable Unit and downstream conditions at the City of Richland, Washington. The scope for this assessment includes only current measured environmental concentrations and current use scenarios. Future environmental concentrations and future land uses are not considered in this assessment.

  6. Balancing energy, development and climate priorities in India. Current trends and future projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shukla, P.R.; Garg, A.; Dhar, S.; Halsnaes, K.

    2007-09-01

    This report gives a short introduction to the project: Projecting future energy demand: Balancing development, energy and climate priorities in large developing countries. Furthermore, the report analyses Indian energy, development and climate change, followed by an assessment of cross-country results that gives a range of key indicators of the relationship between economic growth, energy, and local and global pollutants. The focus is on the energy sector policies that mainstream climate interests within development choices. (BA)

  7. Current state and goals of the Reprocessing and Waste Treatment Project (PWA)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kroebel, R.

    A large reprocessing facility is to be constructed in Germany. This paper shows what part Gesellschaft fuer Kernforschung contributes to this project. Organization of the participating institutions and task allotment are outlined. The makeup of the project, its scope, the techniques to be used, research facilities and incomplete tasks are described. It is estimated that the first installation for LWR fuel elements should start operating around 1985. 8 figures

  8. Balancing risk in regulatory decision making: the Port Granby Project case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benitez, L.; Kleb, H.

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to review the trade-offs that are routinely considered in regulatory decision making, and the policy basis and methods for making those trade-offs. Regulatory decisions under the Canadian Environmental Assessment Act (CEAA) and the Nuclear Safety and Control Act (NSCA) normally consider potential risks to the environment, human health and safety, if a project were to proceed. There is only limited consideration, under such circumstances, of the risks to the environment, human health and safety if the project were not to proceed. The focus is on the potential adverse effects of the project, except in the event of an emergency, where the focus shifts to the economic and other beneficial effects. The Port Granby long-term low-level radioactive waste management project is a project to clean up and provide appropriate local, long-term management of historic low-level radioactive waste (LLRW) in the Port Granby, Ontario area. Approximately 0.4 M m 3 of LLRW, presently located at the Port Granby Waste Management Facility, is to be transported to a newly constructed long-term waste management facility ~700 m north of the bluff face where the facility is located. Accordingly, the project is subject to environmental assessment and licensing processes under the CEAA and the NSCA, respectively. While the Port Granby Project does not represent an emergency situation, it does represent a situation that could result in a significant degree of environmental risk if the project were not to proceed. Over the course of the various studies that have been undertaken at the Waste Management Facility, it has become apparent that the facility is subject to erosion and gullying along the bluff face. The potential for the leaching of contaminants from the existing facility and the erosion of the Lake Ontario bluffs are recognized as ongoing risks that will continue and potentially worsen if the project does not proceed. The economic and other considerations that

  9. Observational studies in South African mines to mitigate seismic risks: a mid-project progress report

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Durrheim, RJ

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available such as Japan. A 5-year collaborative project entitled "Observational studies in South African mines to mitigate seismic risks" was launched in 2010 to address these risks, drawing on over a century of South African and Japanese research experience... network in the mining districts. Figure 1. Schematic illustration of the research design. Jpn - Japanese researchers; CSIR - Council for Scientific and Industrial Research; CGS - Council for Geoscience The knowledge gained during the course...

  10. An assessment of baseline ecological risks at the Fernald Environmental Management Project, Fernald, Ohio

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duke, C.S.; Meyers-Schone, L.; Glum, S.R.; Quaider, W.

    1991-01-01

    The Fernald Environmental Management Project (FEMP), formerly the Feed Materials Production Center (FMPC), is a Department of Energy (DOE) facility located near Cincinnati, Ohio, which produced pure uranium metals from the early 1950s until 1989. DOE is currently conducting a Remedial Investigation/Feasibility Study (RI/FS) under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA), in order to remediate environmental impacts at the site. DOE is also preparing an environmental impact statement under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) to evaluate environmental impacts of proposed remedial actions. Both CERCLA and NEPA require evaluation of ecological risks of baseline conditions and proposed remedial actions. A preliminary assessment of ecological risks examined the potential effects of FEMP contaminants in one operable unit (OU) at the site, OU5, Environmental Media. Radionuclides of potential concern in OU5 soils include uranium, cesium, radium, strontium, technetium, and thorium. Chemicals detected in terrestrial organisms include aluminum, arsenic, barium, cadmium, lead, mercury, vanadium, and zinc, as well as radionuclides. Chemicals of potential concern in surface water include a variety of metals as well as uranium and technetium. Radionuclides in OU5 do not appear to pose a hazard to terrestrial organisms. Estimated radiation doses to aquatic organisms continually exposed to the maximum uranium concentrations observed in on-property drainages ranged from 40 to 4000 rad per year. However, off-property radionuclide concentrations are very low, and it is unlikely that organisms in streams adjacent to the FEMP are exposed to toxic levels. Maximum arsenic levels in vegetation collected from the FEMP are consistent with values reported in the literature to be toxic to certain plants. However, signs of stress have not been observed in vegetation on or adjacent to the FEMP

  11. Goals and activities of the JICA technical cooperation project on reduction of seismic risk in Romania

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vacareanu, R.; Kato, H.

    2007-01-01

    Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) Technical Cooperation Project on Reduction of Seismic Risk for Buildings and Structures started in Romania on October 1, 2002. The aim of the Project is to strengthen the capacity of earthquake disaster related activities in Romania. The Project approval is the result of four years of intensive efforts made by professionals from Technical University of Civil Engineering Bucharest (UTCB), Ministry of Transport, Constructions and Tourism (MTCT), Romania, National Building Research Institute (INCERC) Bucharest, JICA, Building Research Institute (BRI), Tsukuba, and National Institute for Land, Infrastructure and Management (NILIM), Tsukuba, Japan. The duration of the Project is five years. The implementing agency is the National Center for Seismic Risk Reduction (NCSRR) as a public institution of national interest under MTCT. The activities are carried out by NCSRR in partnership with UTCB and INCERC. During the Project period, 29 young Romanian engineers were trained in Japan, 7 Japanese experts and 37 Japanese experts worked for long-term and short-term, respectively in Romania. Equipment for seismic instrumentation, dynamic characterization of soil and structural testing rising up approximately to 260 million yens (i.e. 2.17 million USD) were donated by JICA to Romania, through NCSRR. The total cost of the Project is roughly 7 million USD. The paper describes the main activities and results of the Project until the JICA Final Evaluation Mission (March 2007). (authors)

  12. Changes in field workability and drought risk from projected climate change drive spatially variable risks in Illinois cropping systems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bradley J Tomasek

    Full Text Available As weather patterns become more volatile and extreme, risks introduced by weather variability will become more critical to agricultural production. The availability of days suitable for field work is driven by soil temperature and moisture, both of which may be altered by climate change. We projected changes in Illinois season length, spring field workability, and summer drought risk under three different emissions scenarios (B1, A1B, and A2 down to the crop district scale. Across all scenarios, thermal time units increased in parallel with a longer frost-free season. An increase in late March and Early April field workability was consistent across scenarios, but a decline in overall April through May workable days was observed for many cases. In addition, summer drought metrics were projected to increase for most scenarios. These results highlight how the spatial and temporal variability in climate change may present unique challenges to mitigation and adaptation efforts.

  13. Risk Perceptions of Little Cigar and Cigarillo Smoking Among Adult Current Cigarette Smokers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sterling, Kymberle L; Majeed, Ban A; Nyman, Amy; Eriksen, Michael

    2017-11-01

    Few studies have examined the perceptions of risk of little cigar and cigarillo (LCC) smoking among cigarette smokers, which is important for expanding regulatory policies and developing prevention programs. We examined current cigarette smokers' perceived harm of LCC smoking, and determined whether these perceptions were associated with susceptibility and intention to continue smoking LCCs. Data were from the 2014 Tobacco Products and Risk Perceptions Survey of a probability sample of 5717 US adults. Data were analyzed for a subsample of 1191 current cigarette smokers who were stratified into three groups: (1) dual current cigarette smokers who had ever used LCCs, (2) current smokers susceptible to LCC smoking, and (3) current smokers who were not susceptible to LCC smoking. Overall, 47.2% of participants were dual smokers, 12.7% were susceptible to LCC smoking, and 40.1% were not susceptible. Perceptions of risk of LCCs varied across the groups. Dual smokers were more likely to perceive that daily LCC smoking is "very risky" (OR = 1.64, 95% CI = 1.08, 2.41) while occasional LCC smoking is only "somewhat risky" (OR = 1.71, 95% CI = 1.02, 2.87). Of the dual smokers, 20.7% intended to continue smoking LCCs in the future. Perceptions of addiction and risk of daily LCC smoking significantly predicted intention to continue LCC smoking. Addiction perceptions also significantly predicted susceptibility to initiate LCC smoking. Perceptions about harms from and addiction to LCCs could predict future LCC smoking. Health communication campaigns need to address the harms of LCCs. Our data suggest that perceptions of risk about the addictiveness of LCCs and frequency of use are important determinants of the LCC smoking susceptibility among some cigarette smokers and intended continued use among cigarette smokers with a history of LCC use. Health communication campaigns should address misperceptions related to LCCs. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on

  14. Performance Risks Allocation in Bot Infrastructure in Nigeria: A Case Study of Lagos Infrastructure Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanni Gabriel A.

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The study assessed allocation, criteria and allotment effectiveness of performance risks in Build- Operate-Transfer (BOT transportation infrastructure in Nigeria using Lagos Infrastructure Project (LIP as a case study. LIP is the only BOT-procured tolled road that has attained ‘operate’ stage of BOT cycle in Nigeria. It revealed that more operating risks were actually allocated to the concessionaire than the grantor and most of the risks were preferred retained by the allottee. Significant fraction of the risks was effectively allocated between the concessionaire and grantor except those that involve close interface between participants. While grantor rated nine risks high and seven risks very high; the concessionaire assessed nine risks to be high and five risks to be very high; the grantor rated the effectiveness level to be seventy three per cent and the concessionaire assessed it to be sixty four per cent. The study recommended that the evolving knowledge from Lagos Infrastructure Project (LIP should be documented to guide future BOT transactions in Nigeria.

  15. Gender Differences in Somatic Symptoms and Current Suicidal Risk in Outpatients with Major Depressive Disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeon, Hong Jin; Woo, Jong-Min; Kim, Hyo-Jin; Fava, Maurizio; Mischoulon, David; Cho, Seong Jin; Chang, Sung Man; Park, Doo-Heum; Kim, Jong Woo; Yoo, Ikki; Heo, Jung-Yoon; Hong, Jin Pyo

    2016-11-01

    Although somatic symptoms are common complaints of patients with major depressive disorder (MDD), their associations with suicide are still unclear. A total of 811 MDD outpatients of aged between 18 to 64 years were enrolled nationwide in Korea with the suicidality module of the Mini-International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI) and the Depression and Somatic Symptom Scale (DSSS). On stepwise regression analysis, current suicidality scores were most strongly associated with chest pain in men, and neck or shoulder pain in women. Severe chest pain was associated with higher current suicidality scores in men than in women, whereas severe neck or shoulder pain showed no significant differences between the genders. In conclusion, MDD patients of both sexes with suicidal ideation showed significantly more frequent and severe somatic symptoms than those without. Current suicidal risk was associated with chest pain in men, and neck or shoulder pain in women. We suggest that clinicians pay attention to patients' somatic symptoms in real world practice.

  16. Risk Management in Future Romanian E-Government 2.0 Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Didraga Otniel

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available E-government public services in Romania must follow unitary procedures considering the new requirements of the European Union from the Digital Agenda for Europe Strategy 2020. E-government 2.0 has to be implemented because of the cultural and behavioral transformations in the interaction between governments and users of e-services. E-government 2.0 projects use tools and techniques of social media to accomplish their goals. This article examines the possible risk categories and the risk management procedures needed to mitigate risks in future Romanian e-government projects, according to the strategic lines of development for the Digital Agenda. We propose a risk management plan for the e-government lines of action within the strategic lines of development that includes identifying, assessing, and mitigating the risks. New and modernized government services through e-government 2.0 projects that apply risk management will bring a significant improvement in how citizens and businesses relate to government and will increase the use of e-government services.

  17. Transcranial direct current stimulation over prefrontal cortex diminishes degree of risk aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Hang; Chen, Shu; Huang, Daqiang; Wang, Siqi; Jia, Yongmin; Luo, Jun

    2015-06-26

    Previous studies have established that transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) is a powerful technique for manipulating the activity of the human cerebral cortex. Many studies have found that weighing the risks and benefits in decision-making involves a complex neural network that includes the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC). We studied whether participants change the balance of risky and safe responses after receiving tDCS applied over the right and left prefrontal cortex. A total of 60 healthy volunteers performed a risk task while they received either anodal tDCS over the right prefrontal cortex, with cathodal over the left; anodal tDCS over the left prefrontal cortex, with cathodal over the right; or sham stimulation. The participants tended to choose less risky options after receiving sham stimulation, demonstrating that the task might be highly influenced by the "wealth effect". There was no statistically significant change after either right anodal/left cathodal or left anodal/right cathodal tDCS, indicating that both types of tDCS impact the participants' degrees of risk aversion, and therefore, counteract the wealth effect. We also found gender differences in the participants' choices. These findings extend the notion that DLPFC activity is critical for risk decision-making. Application of tDCS to the right/left DLPFC may impact a person's attitude to taking risks. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Clinical Risk Assessment in the Antiphospholipid Syndrome: Current Landscape and Emerging Biomarkers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaturvedi, Shruti; McCrae, Keith R

    2017-07-01

    Laboratory criteria for the classification of antiphospholipid syndrome include the detection of a lupus anticoagulant and/or anticardiolipin and anti-β2-glycoprotein I antibodies. However, the majority of patients who test positive in these assays do not have thrombosis. Current risk-stratification tools are largely limited to the antiphospholipid antibody profile and traditional thrombotic risk factors. Novel biomarkers that correlate with disease activity and potentially provide insight into future clinical events include domain 1 specific anti-β 2 GPI antibodies, antibodies to other phospholipids or phospholipid/protein antigens (such as anti-PS/PT), and functional/biological assays such as thrombin generation, complement activation, levels of circulating microparticles, and annexin A5 resistance. Clinical risk scores may also have value in predicting clinical events. Biomarkers that predict thrombosis risk in patients with antiphospholipid antibodies have been long sought, and several biomarkers have been proposed. Ultimately, integration of biomarkers with established assays and clinical characteristics may offer the best chance of identifying patients at highest risk of APS-related complications.

  19. RISK MANAGEMENT AUTOMATION OF SOFTWARE PROJECTS BASED ОN FUZZY INFERENCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. M. Zubkova

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Application suitability for one of the intelligent methods for risk management of software projects has been shown based on the review of existing algorithms for fuzzy inference in the field of applied problems. Information sources in the management of software projects are analyzed; major and minor risks are highlighted. The most critical parameters have been singled out giving the possibility to estimate the occurrence of an adverse situations (project duration, the frequency of customer’s requirements changing, work deadlines, experience of developers’ participation in such projects and others.. The method of qualitative fuzzy description based on fuzzy logic has been developed for analysis of these parameters. Evaluation of possible situations and knowledge base formation rely on a survey of experts. The main limitations of existing automated systems have been identified in relation to their applicability to risk management in the software design. Theoretical research set the stage for software system that makes it possible to automate the risk management process for software projects. The developed software system automates the process of fuzzy inference in the following stages: rule base formation of the fuzzy inference systems, fuzzification of input variables, aggregation of sub-conditions, activation and accumulation of conclusions for fuzzy production rules, variables defuzzification. The result of risk management automation process in the software design is their quantitative and qualitative assessment and expert advice for their minimization. Practical significance of the work lies in the fact that implementation of the developed automated system gives the possibility for performance improvement of software projects.

  20. Donor testing and risk: current prevalence, incidence, and residual risk of transfusion-transmissible agents in US allogeneic donations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, Shimian; Stramer, Susan L; Dodd, Roger Y

    2012-04-01

    Over the past 20 years, there has been a major increase in the safety of the blood supply, as demonstrated by declining rates of posttransfusion infection and reductions in estimated residual risk for such infections. Reliable estimates of residual risk have been possible within the American Red Cross system because of the availability of a large amount of reliable and consistent data on donations and infectious disease testing results. Among allogeneic blood donations, the prevalence rates of infection markers for hepatitis C virus (HCV) and hepatitis B virus have decreased over time, although rates for markers of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and human T-cell lymphotropic virus did not. The incidence (/100 000 person-years) of HIV and HCV among repeat donors showed apparent increases from 1.55 and 1.89 in 2000 through 2001 to 2.16 and 2.98 in 2007 through 2008. These observed fluctuations confirm the need for continuous monitoring and evaluation. The residual risk of HIV, HCV, and human T-cell lymphotropic virus among all allogeneic donations is currently below 1 per 1 million donations, and that of hepatitis B surface antigen is close to 1 per 300 000 donations. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Climate related diseases. Current regional variability and projections to the year 2100

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Błażejczyk Krzysztof

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The health of individuals and societies depends on different factors including atmospheric conditions which influence humans in direct and indirect ways. The paper presents regional variability of some climate related diseases (CRD in Poland: salmonellosis intoxications, Lyme boreliosis, skin cancers (morbidity and mortality, influenza, overcooling deaths, as well as respiratory and circulatory mortality. The research consisted of two stages: 1 statistical modelling basing on past data and 2 projections of CRD for three SRES scenarios of climate change (A1B, A2, B1 to the year 2100. Several simple and multiply regression models were found for the relationships between climate variables and CRD. The models were applied to project future levels of CRD. At the end of 21st century we must expect increase in: circulatory mortality, Lyme boreliosis infections and skin cancer morbidity and mortality. There is also projected decrease in: respiratory mortality, overcooling deaths and influenza infections.

  2. Relation of field-aligned currents measured by AMPERE project to solar wind and substorms

    Science.gov (United States)

    McPherron, R. L.; Anderson, B. J.; Chu, X.

    2016-12-01

    Magnetic perturbations measured in the Active Magnetosphere and Planetary Electrodynamics Response Experiment (AMPERE) by the Iridium constellation of spacecraft have been processed to obtain the time history of field-aligned currents (FAC) connecting the magnetosphere to the ionosphere. We find that the strength of these currents is closely related to the strength of the solar wind driver defined as a running average of the previous three hours of the optimum AL (auroral lower) coupling function. The relation is well represented by a saturation model I = A*S*Ss/(S+Ss) with I the current strength in mega Amps, S the driver strength in mV/m, Ss the saturation value of 7.78 mV/m, and A = 2.55 scales the relation to units of current. We also find that in general the upward current on the nightside increases with each substorm expansion onset defined by a combination of the SuperMag SML (SuperMag AL) and midlatitude positive bay (MPB) onset lists. A superposed epoch analysis using 700 onsets in 2010 shows the following: solar wind coupling peaks at expansion onset; dayside outward current starts to increase one hour before onset while nightside outward current starts suddenly at onset; nightside outward current reaches a peak at 28 minutes as do SML and MPB indices; FAC, SML, and MPB respectively take 1, 2, and 3 hours to decay to background. The data indicate that the substorm current wedge is superposed on a pre-existing field-aligned current system and that the location and properties of the current wedge can be studied with the AMPERE data.

  3. Additive Manufacturing and 3D Printing in NASA: An Overview of Current Projects and Future Initiatives for Space Exploration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clinton, R. G., Jr.

    2014-01-01

    NASA, including each Mission Directorate, is investing in, experimenting with, and/or utilizing AM across a broad spectrum of applications and projects; Centers have created and are continuing to create partnerships with industry, other Government Agencies, other Centers, and Universities; In-house additive manufacturing capability enables rapid iteration of the entire design, development and testing process, increasing innovation and reducing risk and cost to projects; For deep space exploration, AM offers significant reduction to logistics costs and risk by providing ability to create on demand; There are challenges: Overwhelming message from recent JANNAF AM for Propulsion Applications TIM was "certification."; NASA will continue to work with our partners to address this and other challenges to advance the state of the art in AM and incorporate these capabilities into an array of applications from aerospace to science missions to deep space exploration.

  4. Influence of the Risk-Contributing Factors on the Financing of the Investment Project for Building of Intelligent Buildings

    OpenAIRE

    Voytolovskiy Nikolay; Trebukhin Anatoliy; Shoshinov Vitaly

    2017-01-01

    This article provides the generic classification of risks of the investment projects for the construction of intelligent buildings which differ by the detachment of the subjective perception of risk by the investor. Risk and uncertainty were justified as system characteristics of the investment projects for the construction of intelligent buildings. Characteristics of the development was given in the context of project management. Methodical schemes of the development of the investment projec...

  5. Designing an integrated model based on the indicators Quality and Earned Value for risk management in Information Technology Projects

    OpenAIRE

    TATLARI, Mohammad Reza; KAZEMİPOOR, Hamed

    2015-01-01

    There are two effective factors on Information Technology (IT) projects risk including quality and earned value so that by controlling these two factors and their increased level in IT projects, the corresponding risk can be decreased. Therefore in present study, an integrated model was designed based on quality and earned value indicators for risk management in IT projects on a new and efficient approach. The proposed algorithm included the steps such as preparing a list of several indicator...

  6. Review and Necessity of Recognizing Risk Management in Civil Projects and Contracts

    OpenAIRE

    VOSOUGHI, Pouyan; VOSOUGHI, Vandad

    2015-01-01

    Proper risk management is the reason for which risk (and its various types) is assigned to that section that is able to manage it in the best way but is the section which is able to manage the risk in the best way the same party that has the most effect on the probability of an adverse occurrence or is the section that is able to manage the results in the best way after the adverse occurrence. Now by considering the size, nature and complexity of the projects, the necessity of having the tech...

  7. PRATIQUE: a research project to enhance pest risk analysis techniques in the European Union

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baker, R.H.A.; Battisti, A.; Bremmer, J.; Kenis, M.; Mumford, J.; Petter, F.; Schrader, G.; Bacher, S.; DeBarro, P.; Hulme, P.E.; Karadjova, O.; Oude Lansink, A.; Pruvost, O.; Pysek, P.; Roques, A.; Baranchikov, Y.; Sun, J.H.

    2009-01-01

    PRATIQUE is an EC-funded 7th Framework research project designed to address the major challenges for pest risk analysis (PRA) in Europe. It has three principal objectives: (a) to assemble the datasets required to construct PRAs valid for the whole of the EU, (b) to conduct multi-disciplinary

  8. Optimization of the cumulative risk assessment of pesticides and biocides using computational techniques: Pilot project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jonsdottir, Svava Osk; Reffstrup, Trine Klein; Petersen, Annette

    This pilot project is intended as the first step in developing a computational strategy to assist in refining methods for higher tier cumulative and aggregate risk assessment of exposure to mixture of pesticides and biocides. For this purpose, physiologically based toxicokinetic (PBTK) models were...

  9. Engineering risk assessment for emergency disposal projects of sudden water pollution incidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Bin; Jiang, Jiping; Liu, Rentao; Khan, Afed Ullah; Wang, Peng

    2017-06-01

    Without an engineering risk assessment for emergency disposal in response to sudden water pollution incidents, responders are prone to be challenged during emergency decision making. To address this gap, the concept and framework of emergency disposal engineering risks are reported in this paper. The proposed risk index system covers three stages consistent with the progress of an emergency disposal project. Fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA), a logical and diagrammatic method, was developed to evaluate the potential failure during the process of emergency disposal. The probability of basic events and their combination, which caused the failure of an emergency disposal project, were calculated based on the case of an emergency disposal project of an aniline pollution incident in the Zhuozhang River, Changzhi, China, in 2014. The critical events that can cause the occurrence of a top event (TE) were identified according to their contribution. Finally, advices on how to take measures using limited resources to prevent the failure of a TE are given according to the quantified results of risk magnitude. The proposed approach could be a potential useful safeguard for the implementation of an emergency disposal project during the process of emergency response.

  10. The longevity risk of the Dutch Actuarial Association’s projection model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    F. Peters (Frederick); W.J. Nusselder (Wilma); J.P. Mackenbach (Johan)

    2012-01-01

    markdownabstractAccurate assessment of the risk that arises from further increases in life expectancy is crucial for the financial sector, in particular for pension funds and life insurance companies. The Dutch Actuarial Association presented a revised projection model in 2010, while in the same

  11. A systematic risk management approach employed on the CloudSat project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basilio, R. R.; Plourde, K. S.; Lam, T.

    2000-01-01

    The CloudSat Project has developed a simplified approach for fault tree analysis and probabilistic risk assessment. A system-level fault tree has been constructed to identify credible fault scenarios and failure modes leading up to a potential failure to meet the nominal mission success criteria.

  12. SEAFLOOR MORPHOLOGY INFLUENCES ON CURRENT CONDITION IN A SUNDA STRAIT BRIDGE PROJECT USING NUMERICAL MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Franto Novico

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available It has been more than 50 years since the idea to construct the bridge of Sunda Strait was inspirited by Prof. Sedyatmo. This issued is very important due to accelerate the economic growth between Sumatera Island and Java Island which is known as the densest population in the Indonesia. However, until today the bridge is still not construct yet because the high budget and the lack of technical data are still being problems. One of the most important data is current condition along the Sunda Strait. Unfortunately, no one has been clearly studied about current condition along Sunda Strait. Therefore, the information about current condition would be completed to fulfil the lack of data and information. The RV Geomarine I, as a research vessel conducted the survey in October 2012 that one of the objectives is to get the impression about the current condition around the bridge plan. Attaching echo sounder of bathy 1500 to get the depth profile and applied the RD Instrument ADCP Mobile Workhorse Monitor 300 kHz to collect the real current data and analyze the current using numerical model by Mike 21 were carried out to describe the condition of the current around the bridge proposed. In addition, the detail flexible mesh of hydrodynamic model is applied along bridge plan to analyse the current condition that caused by seafloor morphology. Based on the ADCP data it would be seen that the highest velocity record of the current occurs at October 18th 2012 at line 19 with the value 2.63 m/sec. Nevertheless, the numerical model shown the highest current velocity occurs around the northwest of Sangiang Island where the speed attains more than 4.59 m/sec.

  13. Current issues regarding radiation risk education in Medical Universities of Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsuzuki, Teruhisa; Hosoi, Yoshio; Matsuda, Naoki; Kanda, Reiko; Hosoya, Noriko; Miyagawa, Kiyoshi; Awai, Kazuo; Kondo, Takashi

    2017-01-01

    The main purpose of radiation research is to understand the biological effects of radiation exposure to humans, the molecular mechanisms of biological response m organisms, and its sale application for medical and industrial use. In order to know the current state or education on fundamentals of radiology including radiation biology, a nation-wide questionnaire survey had been performed at medical schools and different co-medical courses in Japanese universities, during the period of 2004 and 2005. The survey results showed: (1) Difference in teaching hours for education on radiation between medical schools with and without department or division of radiation biology or radiation-related field. (2) Teaching hours for education on radiation in nursing course were very limited among the co-medical courses. Although, some improvement have been found about the state of education on radiation risk at medical schools, after the disaster of nuclear accident at Fukushima No.1 Nuclear Power Plant of TEPCO in March 2011. However, still much more effort t is needed to improve basic education on radiation. Science Council of Japan issued the recommendation on September 4, 2014 'Making radiation health risk education compulsory in medical education'. The working group for this purpose was set up under the Council of Head of National Medical Schools of Japan, on January 28, 2015. Here, we describe the details and current issues regarding radiation risk education in medical schools of Japan, as well as the efforts required for its betterment. (author)

  14. Pulmonary arterial hypertension: tailoring treatment to risk in the current era

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sean Gaine

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Recent advances in the treatment of pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH have led to improved patient outcomes. Multiple PAH therapies are now available and optimising the use of these drugs in clinical practice is vital. In this review, we discuss the management of PAH patients in the context of current treatment guidelines and supporting clinical evidence. In clinical practice, considerable emphasis is placed on the importance of making treatment decisions guided by each patient's risk status, which should be assessed using multiple prognostic parameters. As PAH is a progressive disease, regular assessments are essential to ensure that any change in risk is detected in a timely manner and treatment is adjusted accordingly. With the availability of therapies that target three different pathogenic pathways, combination therapy is now the standard of care. For most patients, this involves dual combination therapy with agents targeting the endothelin and nitric oxide pathways. Therapies targeting the prostacyclin pathway should be added for patients receiving dual combination therapy who do not achieve a low-risk status. There is also a need for a holistic approach to treatment beyond pharmacological therapies. Implementation of all these approaches will ensure that PAH patients receive maximal benefit from currently available therapies.

  15. Standard Terminology for Phenotypic Variations: The Elements of Morphology Project, Its Current Progress, and Future Directions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carey, John C.; Allanson, Judith E.; Hennekam, Raoul C. M.; Biesecker, Leslie G.

    2012-01-01

    In 2005, the authors of this article formed an international working group to develop standardized definitions and terms to describe the physical variations used in human phenotypic analyses. This project, which came to be known as the Elements of Morphology, resulted in six articles proposing

  16. Solar Heating/Cooling of Buildings: Current Building Community Projects. An Interim Report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    National Academy of Sciences - National Research Council, Washington, DC. Building Research Advisory Board.

    Projects being carried out by the private sector involving the use of solar energy for heating and cooling buildings are profiled in this report. A substantial portion of the data were collected from a broad cross-section of the building community. Data collection efforts also involved the canvassing of the nearly 200 trade and professional…

  17. Sexual HIV Risk Among Male Parolees and Their Female Partners: The Relate Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comfort, Megan; Reznick, Olga Grinstead; Dilworth, Samantha E; Binson, Diane; Darbes, Lynae A; Neilands, Torsten B

    The massively disproportionate impact of America's prison boom on communities of color has raised questions about how incarceration may affect health disparities, including disparities in HIV. Primary partners are an important source of influence on sexual health. In this paper, we investigate sexual HIV risk among male-female couples following a man's release from prison. We draw upon data from the Relate Project, a novel cross-sectional survey of recently released men and their female partners in Oakland and San Francisco, California (N=344). Inferential analyses use the actor-partner model to explore actor and partner effects on sexual HIV risk outcomes. Dyadic analyses of sexual HIV risk among male parolees and their female partners paint a complex portrait of couples affected by incarceration and of partners' influences on each other. Findings indicate that demographic factors such as education level and employment status, individual psycho-social factors such as perception of risk, and relationship factors such as commitment and power affect sexual HIV risk outcomes. The Relate Project provides a novel dataset for the dyadic analysis of sexual risk among male parolees and their female partners, and results highlight the importance of focusing on the couple as a unit when assessing HIV risk and protective behaviors. Results also indicate potentially fruitful avenues for population-specific interventions that may help to reduce sexual health disparities among couples affected by incarceration.

  18. Common risks affecting time overrun in road construction projects in Palestine: Contractors’ perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ibrahim Mahamid

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The construction sector is one of the key economic sectors and is the main force motivating the Palestinian national economy. However, it suffers from number of problems that affect time, cost and quality performances. This study aims at identifying the common risks affecting time overrun in road construction projects in the West Bank in Palestine from contractors’ viewpoint. 45 factors that might cause delays of road construction projects were defined through a detailed literature review. A questionnaire survey was performed to rank the considered factors in terms of severity and frequency. The analysis of the survey indicated that the top risks affecting time overrun in road construction projects in Palestine are: financial status of the contractors, payments delay by the owner, political situation, segmentation of the West Bank, poor communication between construction parties, lack of equipment efficiency, and high competition in bids.

  19. The relevance of the early history of probability theory to current risk assessment practices in mental health care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Large, Matthew

    2013-12-01

    Probability theory is at the base of modern concepts of risk assessment in mental health. The aim of the current paper is to review the key developments in the early history of probability theory in order to enrich our understanding of current risk assessment practices.

  20. Projecting Sexual and Injecting HIV Risks into Future Outcomes with Agent-Based Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bobashev, Georgiy V.; Morris, Robert J.; Zule, William A.

    Longitudinal studies of health outcomes for HIV could be very costly cumbersome and not representative of the risk population. Conversely, cross-sectional approaches could be representative but rely on the retrospective information to estimate prevalence and incidence. We present an Agent-based Modeling (ABM) approach where we use behavioral data from a cross-sectional representative study and project the behavior into the future so that the risks of acquiring HIV could be studied in a dynamical/temporal sense. We show how the blend of behavior and contact network factors (sexual, injecting) play the role in the risk of future HIV acquisition and time till obtaining HIV. We show which subjects are the most likely persons to get HIV in the next year, and whom they are likely to infect. We examine how different behaviors are related to the increase or decrease of HIV risks and how to estimate the quantifiable risk measures such as survival HIV free.

  1. Assessing Risk in Costing High-energy Accelerators: from Existing Projects to the Future Linear Collider

    CERN Document Server

    Lebrun, Philippe

    2010-01-01

    High-energy accelerators are large projects funded by public money, developed over the years and constructed via major industrial contracts both in advanced technology and in more conventional domains such as civil engineering and infrastructure, for which they often constitute one-of markets. Assessing their cost, as well as the risk and uncertainty associated with this assessment is therefore an essential part of project preparation and a justified requirement by the funding agencies. Stemming from the experience with large circular colliders at CERN, LEP and LHC, as well as with the Main Injector, the Tevatron Collider Experiments and Accelerator Upgrades, and the NOvA Experiment at Fermilab, we discuss sources of cost variance and derive cost risk assessment methods applicable to the future linear collider, through its two technical approaches for ILC and CLIC. We also address disparities in cost risk assessment imposed by regional differences in regulations, procedures and practices.

  2. Hedging Financial Risks in the Economic Practices of Small Business: Current Imperatives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kolomiyets Ganna M.

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The article considers the need to update approaches to hedging the financial risks of small businesses. Reducing the probability of financial costs and losses is of continuing relevance. It appears to be especially critical for small businesses. Small business plays a significant role in the country’s economic system as creator of jobs and as a producer of goods and services that adapts quickly to changing consumer requirements. However, its access to credit resources has certain limitations. The instability of the economic environment by individual factors can affect small businesses not less, and sometimes even more than large and medium-sized businesses. Design of the risk-management in terms of small business needs to be updated. In the current context, there is a need in re-evaluating that the efficient financial risk management can only be carried out in a complex of all the enterprise’s risks, with an increase in the planning horizon and the identification of obstacles to achieving the objective set.

  3. Customized oligonucleotide microarray gene expression-based classification of neuroblastoma patients outperforms current clinical risk stratification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oberthuer, André; Berthold, Frank; Warnat, Patrick; Hero, Barbara; Kahlert, Yvonne; Spitz, Rüdiger; Ernestus, Karen; König, Rainer; Haas, Stefan; Eils, Roland; Schwab, Manfred; Brors, Benedikt; Westermann, Frank; Fischer, Matthias

    2006-11-01

    To develop a gene expression-based classifier for neuroblastoma patients that reliably predicts courses of the disease. Two hundred fifty-one neuroblastoma specimens were analyzed using a customized oligonucleotide microarray comprising 10,163 probes for transcripts with differential expression in clinical subgroups of the disease. Subsequently, the prediction analysis for microarrays (PAM) was applied to a first set of patients with maximally divergent clinical courses (n = 77). The classification accuracy was estimated by a complete 10-times-repeated 10-fold cross validation, and a 144-gene predictor was constructed from this set. This classifier's predictive power was evaluated in an independent second set (n = 174) by comparing results of the gene expression-based classification with those of risk stratification systems of current trials from Germany, Japan, and the United States. The first set of patients was accurately predicted by PAM (cross-validated accuracy, 99%). Within the second set, the PAM classifier significantly separated cohorts with distinct courses (3-year event-free survival [EFS] 0.86 +/- 0.03 [favorable; n = 115] v 0.52 +/- 0.07 [unfavorable; n = 59] and 3-year overall survival 0.99 +/- 0.01 v 0.84 +/- 0.05; both P model, the PAM predictor classified patients of the second set more accurately than risk stratification of current trials from Germany, Japan, and the United States (P < .001; hazard ratio, 4.756 [95% CI, 2.544 to 8.893]). Integration of gene expression-based class prediction of neuroblastoma patients may improve risk estimation of current neuroblastoma trials.

  4. Statement on current progress of the EPR project. Basic Design phase concluded

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lamprecht, F.

    1997-01-01

    Against the background of expected increasing demand for electric power worldwide it is obvious that any existing technology for electricity generation will be required in the future to meet the demand, just as well as technology improvements. Nuclear industry's answer to this challenge are activities for further evolution of the PWR concept as a joint venture of France and Germany for development of the European Pressurized Water Reactor (EPR). The project participants are reactor manufacturers and operators of both countries as well as organisations responsible for reactor safety. The Basic Design phase which started in 1995, after prior definition of the common safety philosophy, has recently been concluded. The results have been presented at a meeting in October 1997 in Cologne, organised by KTG and SFEN, the countries' respective nuclear societies. The broad statement is that project work was successful in achieving two major objectives: A well-balanced safety concept, and a competitive design. (orig./CB) [de

  5. Selection of Investment Projects by Monte Carlo Method in Risk Condition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. E.

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The Monte Carlo method (also known as the Monte Carlo simulation was proposed by Nicholas Metropolis, S. Ulam and Jhon Von Neiman in 50-th years of the past century. The method can be widely applied to analysis of investment projects due to the advantages recognized both by practitioners and the academic community. The balance model of a project with discounted financial flows has been implemented for Microsoft Excel and Google Docs spread-sheet solutions. The Monte Carlo method for project with low and high correlated net present value (NPV parameters in the environment of the electronic tables of MS Excel/Google Docs. A distinct graduation of risk was identified. A necessity of account of correlation effects and the use of multivariate imitation during the project selection has been demonstrated.

  6. Single and combined metal contamination in coastal environments in China: current status and potential ecological risk evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manzoor, Romana; Zhang, Tingwan; Zhang, Xuejiao; Wang, Min; Pan, Jin-Fen; Wang, Zhumei; Zhang, Bo

    2018-01-01

    With the development of industrialization and urbanization, metal and metalloid pollution is one of the most serious environmental problems in China. Current contamination status of metals and metalloid and their potential ecological risks along China's coasts were reviewed in the present paper by a comprehensive study on metal contents in marine waters and sediments in the past few decades. The priority metals/metalloid cadmium (Cd), mercury (Hg), chromium (Cr), lead (Pb), and arsenic (As), which were the target elements of the designated project "Comprehensive Prevention and Control of Heavy Metal Pollution" issued by the Chinese government in 2011, were selected considering their high toxicity, persistence, and prevalent existence in coastal environment. Commonly used environmental quality evaluation methods for single and combined metals were compared, and we accordingly suggest the comprehensive approach of joint utilization of the Enrichment Factor and Effect Range Median combined with Pollution Load Index and Mean Effect Range Median Quotient (EEPME); this battery of guidelines may provide consistent, internationally comparable, and accurate understanding of the environment pollution status of combined metals/metalloid and their potential ecological risk.

  7. Current status of the tasks performed by the Nuclear Fuel Department for the CAREM project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaufmann, Federico; Perez, Lidia E.; Perez, Aaldo; Marchi, Daniel E.

    2009-01-01

    CAREM Project required to the Nuclear Fuels Department to perform the necessary tasks to define the powder characteristics and natural UO 2 -Gd 2 O 3 , UO 2 -1.8 and 3.1 % enrichment fuel pellets manufacturing and control parameters. To start with these tasks it was necessary to hire and train staff, begin the licensing process of the facilities, update infrastructure works and equipment of existing facilities. A brief description of the tasks performed is shown. (author)

  8. Horonobe Underground Research Laboratory project. Current status on the surface-based investigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hama, Katsuhiro; Ishii, Eiichi

    2004-01-01

    Aims of the Horonobe URL project are presenting concrete geological environment as an example of sedimentary formation and confirming reliability of technologies for geological disposal of High-Level Radioactive Waste (HLW) by applying them to actual geological condition of sedimentary formation. Social aim is providing opportunities for general public to experience the actual deep underground circumstance and R and D activities to be conducted there. (author)

  9. The Process of Risk Management for a Project to Extract Shale Gas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hurtado, A.; Eguilior, S.; Recreo, F.

    2014-07-01

    deal. Communication between stake holders throughout the process is a critical element in risk management. Decisions regarding risk issues must strike a balance between the technical aspects of them and the social and moral consequences of the project. (Author)

  10. The Process of Risk Management for a Project to Extract Shale Gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hurtado, A.; Eguilior, S.; Recreo, F.

    2014-01-01

    deal. Communication between stake holders throughout the process is a critical element in risk management. Decisions regarding risk issues must strike a balance between the technical aspects of them and the social and moral consequences of the project. (Author)

  11. Greenhouse Gas CCI Project (GHG-CCI): Overview and current status

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchwitz, M.; Burrows, J. P.; Reuter, M.; Schneising, O.; Noel, S.; Bovensmann, H.; Notholt, J.; Boesch, H.; Parker, R.; Hasekamp, O. P.; Guerlet, S.; Aben, I.; Lichtenberg, G.; Crevoisier, C. D.; Chedin, A.; Stiller, G. P.; Laeng, A.; Butz, A.; Blumenstock, T.; Orphal, J.; Sussmann, R.; De Maziere, M. M.; Dils, B.; Brunner, D.; Popp, C. T.; Buchmann, B.; Chevallier, F.; Bergamaschi, P. M.; Frankenberg, C.; Zehner, C.

    2011-12-01

    The GHG-CCI project is one of several projects of ESA's Climate Change Initiative (CCI), which will deliver various Essential Climate Variables (ECVs). The goal of GHG-CCI is to deliver global satellite-derived data sets of the two most important anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) suitable to obtain information on regional CO2 and CH4 surface sources and sinks as needed for better climate prediction. The GHG-CCI core ECV data products are column-averaged mole fractions of CO2 and CH4, i.e., XCO2 and XCH4, retrieved from SCIAMACHY on ENVISAT and TANSO on GOSAT. Other satellite instruments will be used to provide constraints in upper layers such as IASI, MIPAS, and ACE-FTS. Which of the advanced algorithms, which are under development, will be the best for a given data product still needs to be determined. For each of the 4 GHG-CCI core data products - XCO2 and XCH4 from SCIAMACHY and GOSAT - several algorithms will be further developed and the corresponding data products will be inter-compared to identify which data product is the most appropriate. This includes comparisons with corresponding data products generated elsewhere, most notably with the operational data products of GOSAT generated at NIES and the NASA/ACOS GOSAT XCO2 product. This activity, the so-called "Round Robin exercise", will be performed in the first two years of this project. At the end of the 2 year Round Robin phase a decision will be made which of the algorithms performs best. The selected algorithms will be used to generate the first version of the ECV GHG. In the last six months of this 3 year project the resulting data products will be validated and made available to all interested users. In the presentation and overview about this project will be given. Focus will be on a discussion and intercomparison of the various data products focusing on CO2.

  12. The GHG-CCI Project to Deliver the Essential Climate Variable Greenhouse Gases: Current status

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchwitz, M.; Boesch, H.; Reuter, M.

    2012-04-01

    The GHG-CCI project (http://www.esa-ghg-cci.org) is one of several projects of ESA's Climate Change Initiative (CCI), which will deliver various Essential Climate Variables (ECVs). The goal of GHG-CCI is to deliver global satellite-derived data sets of the two most important anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) suitable to obtain information on regional CO2 and CH4 surface sources and sinks as needed for better climate prediction. The GHG-CCI core ECV data products are column-averaged mole fractions of CO2 and CH4, XCO2 and XCH4, retrieved from SCIAMACHY on ENVISAT and TANSO on GOSAT. Other satellite instruments will be used to provide constraints in upper layers such as IASI, MIPAS, and ACE-FTS. Which of the advanced algorithms, which are under development, will be the best for a given data product still needs to be determined. For each of the 4 GHG-CCI core data products - XCO2 and XCH4 from SCIAMACHY and GOSAT - several algorithms are bing further developed and the corresponding data products are inter-compared to identify which data product is the most appropriate. This includes comparisons with corresponding data products generated elsewhere, most notably with the operational data products of GOSAT generated at NIES and the NASA/ACOS GOSAT XCO2 product. This activity, the so-called "Round Robin exercise", will be performed in the first two years of this project. At the end of the 2 year Round Robin phase (end of August 2012) a decision will be made which of the algorithms performs best. The selected algorithms will be used to generate the first version of the ECV GHG. In the last six months of this 3 year project the resulting data products will be validated and made available to all interested users. In the presentation and overview about this project will be given focussing on the latest results.

  13. Current and Projected Characteristics and Unique Health Care Needs of the Patient Population Served by the Department of Veterans Affairs

    OpenAIRE

    Eibner, Christine; Krull, Heather; Brown, Kristine M.; Cefalu, Matthew; Mulcahy, Andrew W.; Pollard, Michael; Shetty, Kanaka; Adamson, David M.; Amaral, Ernesto F. L.; Armour, Philip; Beleche, Trinidad; Bogdan, Olena; Hastings, Jaime; Kapinos, Kandice; Kress, Amii

    2016-01-01

    The Veterans Access, Choice, and Accountability Act of 2014 addressed the need for access to timely, high-quality health care for veterans. Section 201 of the legislation called for an independent assessment of various aspects of veterans' health care. The RAND Corporation was tasked with an assessment of the current and projected demographics and health care needs of patients served by the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA). The number of U.S. veterans will continue to decline over the next...

  14. Application of Total Quality Management (TQM Requirements in Risk Management in Construction Projects in Iraq

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Entisar K. Al-Geelawee

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Total quality management considers one of the modern scientific entrances which practiced by productivity service organizations alike to provide appropriate quality required outputs according to the needs and desires of customers manage , enable the organization seeking to continue and grow in light of the increasing competition from the satisfy and provide the appropriate total quality management requirements whenever led to face risks that they may have in a manner in which they can be addressed and find ways to avoid them in the future when repeated. The research has consist of two main parts firstly have included a review of the most important concepts of total quality management in addition to the concept of risk analysis and management in construction projects and how to apply the concept of total quality management in the risk analysis and management. Second part included the practical part of the research, which was open and closed questionnaire for experts in the construction industry to obtain required informations for the application of total quality management requirements in risk management in construction projects in Iraq. One of the main findings of the research is that top management support has a high impact on risk management in addition to continuous improvement, training and education, while the participation of all employees in the organization and constant stimulation and focusing on the customer as one of the total quality management requirements had a moderate impact on risk management.

  15. The price of policy risk — Empirical insights from choice experiments with European photovoltaic project developers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lüthi, Sonja; Wüstenhagen, Rolf

    2012-01-01

    Managing the transition to a renewable energy future is an important policy priority in many countries. Solar photovoltaic (PV) technology is expected to make an essential contribution, but due to relatively high cost, its growth to date has been largely driven by public policy, notably feed-in tariffs. Feed-in tariffs have been implemented in various countries, but with widely differing outcomes in terms of installed PV capacity. Previous research indicates that the level of policy risk may be an important driver for differences in renewable energy policy effectiveness. This paper suggests that project developers who make a decision between PV investment opportunities in different countries carefully weigh feed-in tariff-induced returns against a set of policy risks, and choose the country with the most favorable risk-return profile. This model is empirically tested by a stated preference survey among European PV project developers, consisting of 1575 choice decisions by 63 investors. The findings demonstrate that risk matters in PV policy design, and that a “price tag” can be attached to specific policy risks, such as the duration of administrative processes or uncertainty induced by an approaching capacity cap. Governments can build on these empirical results to design policies that will be effective in attracting private PV investment, while at the same time maintaining efficiency by providing an adequate compensation for policy risk