Declination Calculator

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Declination is calculated using the current International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) model. Declination is calculated using the current World Magnetic Model...

THE EVOLUTION OF ECONOMIC GLOBALIZATION DURING THE CURRENT GLOBAL CRISIS

OpenAIRE

Sabina Tuca

2013-01-01

The current economic crisis constitutes a serious test for the process of globalization. The purpose of this study is to analyze the influence of the current global crisis on economic globalization. To assess the impact of the current crisis on economic globalization, this paper examines the KOF Index of Globalization, before and during the crisis. The findings generally support the idea that economic globalization has been, in fact, weakened, after the onset of the current crisis. However, t...

MAJOR EVENTS IN THE ARAB ORDER: THE DECLINE OF SUSTAINABILITY AND THE TRANSITION TO ECONOMIC RESILIENCE

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RALUCA IOANA OPREA

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The Arab world particularities are not solely the ones derived from natural wealth (oil and gas, but are also driven from historical particularities which mark this region, together with specific Islamic politics and economic organizational framework, with deep roots in religious concepts. In a global context, where the rules from the West are the ones leading globalization, the Arab World brings its contribution, even though the Islamic space defines a different socio-economic concept. In the East lies a series of features that place the Arab world in a different plan than the one shown frequently in the discussions about world order, with geopolitical but also economic implications. Conflicts in this region lead to declining sustainable development and trigger the need to strengthen the economic resilience. As the least peaceful region of the contemporary world, Arab World integrated the concept of economic resilience, in order to recover from shocks and continue further development.

LOOKING BEYOND THE CRISIS. LESSONS FROM THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC DECLINE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Larisa LUCHIAN

2014-10-01

Full Text Available This paper gives an overview on the deepest EU’s recession since the 1930s. The purpose of this study is to analyze the main macroeconomic indicators and their domino effect, in times of crisis. The abrupt downturn of the EU economy wasn’t entirely an unpredicted event. This is why the impact of the macroeconomic instability should never be underestimated in the future. Prevention, control and resolution represent elementary lessons from the way the current economic crisis has been handled. The analysis, added to the disruptions caused by the economic crisis, shows that the recession continues to weigh on the perspectives and solutions of the macroeconomic stability.

Global Economy under the Current Economic Crisis Effects

OpenAIRE

Voicu Ioana-Iulica; Talmaciu Iuliana

2010-01-01

In the current context in which countries in the world search new solutions and strategies to counteract the negative effects generated by the worst economic crisis in the last 80 years, the globalisation rises polemics and controversies regarding the causes that lead to the expansion of the crisis. May it be, the current economic crisis, a consequence of the globalisation? Beyond the contradictory answers, the globalisation must be seen in essence as a stimulating and expansion factor of the...

Economic growth and marine biodiversity: influence of human social structure on decline of marine trophic levels.

Science.gov (United States)

Clausen, Rebecca; York, Richard

2008-04-01

We assessed the effects of economic growth, urbanization, and human population size on marine biodiversity. We used the mean trophic level (MTL) of marine catch as an indicator of marine biodiversity and conducted cross-national time-series analyses (1960-2003) of 102 nations to investigate human social influences on fish catch and trends in MTL. We constructed path models to examine direct and indirect effects relating to marine catch and MTL. Nations' MTLs declined with increased economic growth, increased urbanization, and increased population size, in part because of associated increased catch. These findings contradict the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis, which claims that economic modernization will reduce human impact on the environment. To make informed decisions on issues of marine resource management, policy makers, nonprofit entities, and professional societies must recognize the need to include social analyses in overall conservation-research strategies. The challenge is to utilize the socioeconomic and ecological research in the service of a comprehensive marine-conservation movement.

Decline curve based models for predicting natural gas well performance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Arash Kamari

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The productivity of a gas well declines over its production life as cannot cover economic policies. To overcome such problems, the production performance of gas wells should be predicted by applying reliable methods to analyse the decline trend. Therefore, reliable models are developed in this study on the basis of powerful artificial intelligence techniques viz. the artificial neural network (ANN modelling strategy, least square support vector machine (LSSVM approach, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS, and decision tree (DT method for the prediction of cumulative gas production as well as initial decline rate multiplied by time as a function of the Arps' decline curve exponent and ratio of initial gas flow rate over total gas flow rate. It was concluded that the results obtained based on the models developed in current study are in satisfactory agreement with the actual gas well production data. Furthermore, the results of comparative study performed demonstrates that the LSSVM strategy is superior to the other models investigated for the prediction of both cumulative gas production, and initial decline rate multiplied by time.

The oil market in the 1980s -- a decade of decline

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shojai, S.; Katz, B.S.

1992-01-01

Part 1 of this volume presents a profile of the economic dislocations and hardships that resulted from the breakup of OPEC and non-OPEC nation oil exporters. The economies and economic plans of these nations were buffeted by the oil price decline. Slowed foreign exchange receipts, declining terms of trade, and fluctuating exchange rates all mitigated against oil suppliers. Part 2 investigates a range of oil importer responses to the economic ramifications of rising (1970s) and declining (1980s) oil prices. While the oil-importing Western nations adjusted to and benefited from the declining oil prices and oil suppliers bore the cost, there were also disparate economic effects on the developing world. Part 3 investigates the oil price decline fallout. The experiences of the 1980s permit an extended analysis of market conditions resulting from changes in the price of oil. Part 4 attempts to come to grips with the impact of price changes and future developments in the international world oil market

Declining national park visitation: An economic analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas H. Stevens; Thomas A. More; Marla. Markowski-Lindsay

2014-01-01

Visitation to the major nature-based national parks has been declining. This paper specifies an econometric model that estimates the relative impact of consumer incomes, travel costs, entry fees and other factors on per capita attendance from 1993 to 2010. Results suggest that entrance fees have had a statistically significant but small impact on per capita attendance...

Some economic consequences of an ageing and declining population in Denmark.

Science.gov (United States)

Leeson, G W

1983-01-01

Figures for 1981 indicate that Denmark has a fertility level of 1.45 which has been below replacement level since 1968. In that same time period, natural increase has decreased from over 27,000 in 1968 to only 1354 in 1980 and a negative natural increase in 1981 with deaths outnumbering births by 3001. Even during the depression in the 1930's, net population increase was between 6-9/1000 with a fertility level which hovered around replacement level. At that time, the number of females in the childbearing ages was enough to provide population growth, whereas the number is much less today. Population increase is only 0.3/1000. The national population projections for Denmark for 1981-2010 assume an increase in the fertility level from 1.45-1.70 by 1991 after which it remains constant. The number of 20-39 year olds increased steadily until 1945 after which there was a decline as the cohorts from periods with low fertility levels entered this age group, but this was again followed by a steady increase to the present day. The number of females aged 0-39 years is expected to decrease in all age groups to the year 2000. Those aged 40-59 increased in numbers from 1920 to the mid 1960s, since then they have decreased in number, but an increase is forcast for the remainder of the century. The number of elderly females also increased steadily from 1930-80, from about 200,000 to over 550,000; this is expected to continue until 1990 when a short-term decline will set in. Regarding the economic and social consequences of these trends, it is shown that the present decline in fertility has its origins in a period of low unemployment and its negative growth while there was still relatively low unemployment and economic growth. In 1973 the unemployed rate was 0.9% of the work force and this rose to 9.2% in 1981. The Danish population has aged from one with 1/4 million people aged 60 and over at the turn of the century to about 1 million of that age today. Also, the aged themselves

Field aligned current study during the solar declining- extreme minimum of 23 solar cycle

Science.gov (United States)

Nepolian, Jeni Victor; Kumar, Anil; C, Panneerselvam

Field Aligned Current (FAC) density study has been carried out during the solar declining phase from 2004 to 2006 of the 23rd solar cycle and the ambient terrestrial magnetic field of the extended minimum period of 2008 and 2009. We mainly depended on CHAMP satellite data (http://isdc.gfz-potsdam.de/) for computing the FAC density with backup of IGRF-10 model. The study indicates that, the FAC is controlled by quasi-viscous processes occurring at the flank of the earth’s magnetosphere. The dawn-dusk conventional pattern enhanced during disturbed days. The intensity of R1 current system is higher than the R2 current system. Detailed results will be discussed in the conference.

Interpreting Gas Production Decline Curves By Combining Geometry and Topology

Science.gov (United States)

Ewing, R. P.; Hu, Q.

2014-12-01

Shale gas production forms an increasing fraction of domestic US energy supplies, but individual gas production wells show steep production declines. Better understanding of this production decline would allow better economic forecasting; better understanding of the reasons behind the decline would allow better production management. Yet despite these incentives, production declines curves remain poorly understood, and current analyses range from Arps' purely empirical equation to new sophisticated approaches requiring multiple unavailable parameters. Models often fail to capture salient features: for example, in log-log space many wells decline with an exponent markedly different from the -0.5 expected from diffusion, and often show a transition from one decline mode to another. We propose a new approach based on the assumption that the rate-limiting step is gas movement from the matrix to the induced fracture network. The matrix is represented as an assemblage of equivalent spheres (geometry), with low matrix pore connectivity (topology) that results in a distance-dependent accessible porosity profile given by percolation theory. The basic theory has just 2 parameters: the sphere size distribution (geometry), and the crossover distance (topology) that characterizes the porosity distribution. The theory is readily extended to include e.g. alternative geometries and bi-modal size distributions. Comparisons with historical data are promising.

The current total economic burden of diabetes mellitus in the Netherlands.

Science.gov (United States)

Peters, M L; Huisman, E L; Schoonen, M; Wolffenbuttel, B H R

2017-09-01

Insight into the total economic burden of diabetes mellitus (DM) is essential for decision makers and payers. Currently available estimates for the Netherlands only include part of the total burden or are no longer up-to-date. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the current total economic burden of DM and its complications in the Netherlands, by including all the relevant cost components. The study combined a systematic literature review to identify all relevant published information and a targeted review to identify relevant information in the grey literature. The identified evidence was then combined to estimate the current total economic burden. In 2016, there were an estimated 1.1 million DM patients in the Netherlands, of whom approximately 10% had type 1 and 90% had type 2 DM. The estimated current total economic burden of DM was € 6.8 billion in 2016. Healthcare costs (excluding costs of complications) were € 1.6 billion, direct costs of complications were € 1.3 billion and indirect costs due to productivity losses, welfare payments and complications were € 4.0 billion. DM and its complications pose a substantial economic burden to the Netherlands, which is expected to rise due to changing demographics and lifestyle. Indirect costs, such as welfare payments, accounted for a large portion of the current total economic burden of DM, while these cost components are often not included in cost estimations. Publicly available data for key cost drivers such as complications were scarce.

Tree decline and the future of Australian farmland biodiversity.

Science.gov (United States)

Fischer, Joern; Zerger, Andre; Gibbons, Phil; Stott, Jenny; Law, Bradley S

2010-11-09

Farmland biodiversity is greatly enhanced by the presence of trees. However, farmland trees are declining worldwide, including in North America, Central America, and parts of southern Europe. We show that tree decline and its likely consequences are particularly severe in Australia's temperate agricultural zone, which is a threatened ecoregion. Using field data on trees, remotely sensed imagery, and a demographic model for trees, we predict that by 2100, the number of trees on an average farm will contract to two-thirds of its present level. Statistical habitat models suggest that this tree decline will negatively affect many currently common animal species, with predicted declines in birds and bats of up to 50% by 2100. Declines were predicted for 24 of 32 bird species modeled and for all of six bat species modeled. Widespread declines in trees, birds, and bats may lead to a reduction in economically important ecosystem services such as shade provision for livestock and pest control. Moreover, many other species for which we have no empirical data also depend on trees, suggesting that fundamental changes in ecosystem functioning are likely. We conclude that Australia's temperate agricultural zone has crossed a threshold and no longer functions as a self-sustaining woodland ecosystem. A regime shift is occurring, with a woodland system deteriorating into a treeless pasture system. Management options exist to reverse tree decline, but new policy settings are required to encourage their widespread adoption.

Teen Addiction. Current Controversies Series.

Science.gov (United States)

Winters, Paul A., Ed.

The Current Controversies series explores social, political, and economic controversies that dominate the national and international scenes today from a variety of perspectives. Recent surveys have shown that, after years of decline, drug use among teenagers has increased during the 1990s, and that alcohol and tobacco use have remained…

Current Activities of the Joint Council on Economic Education.

Science.gov (United States)

Highsmith, Robert J.

1987-01-01

Reviews current activities of the Joint Council, among them, a researcher training institute, a new K-12 economic education scope and sequence document, a junior high level test of economic knowledge, an instructional package for advanced placement classes, a textbook conference, a project to help teachers of students who work with at-risk…

Chinese culture and fertility decline.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, C; Jia, S

1992-01-01

Coale has suggested that cultural factors exert a significant influence on fertility reduction; countries in the "Chinese cultural circle" would be the first to show fertility decline. In China, the view was that traditional Chinese culture contributed to increased population. This paper examines the nature of the relationship between Chinese culture and fertility. Attention was directed to a comparison of fertility rates of developing countries with strong Chinese cultural influence and of fertility within different regions of China. Discussion was followed by an explanation of the theoretical impact of Chinese culture on fertility and direct and indirect beliefs and practices that might either enhance or hinder fertility decline. Emigration to neighboring countries occurred after the Qing dynasty. Fertility after the 1950s declined markedly in Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, and mainland China: all countries within the Chinese cultural circle. Other countries within the Chinese circle which have higher fertility, yet lower fertility than other non-Chinese cultural countries, are Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia. Within China, regions with similar fertility patterns are identified as coastal regions, central plains, and mountainous and plateau regions. The Han ethnic group has lower fertility than that of ethnic minorities; regions with large Han populations have lower fertility. Overseas Chinese in East Asian countries also tend to have lower fertility than their host populations. Chinese culture consisted of the assimilation of other cultures over 5000 years. Fertility decline was dependent on the population's desire to limit reproduction, favorable social mechanisms, and availability of contraception: all factors related to economic development. Chinese culture affects fertility reduction by affecting reproductive views and social mechanisms directly, and indirectly through economics. Confucianism emphasizes collectivism, self

How does economic risk aversion affect biodiversity?

Science.gov (United States)

Mouysset, L; Doyen, L; Jiguet, F

2013-01-01

Significant decline of biodiversity in farmlands has been reported for several decades. To limit the negative impact of agriculture, many agro-environmental schemes have been implemented, but their effectiveness remains controversial. In this context, the study of economic drivers is helpful to understand the role played by farming on biodiversity. The present paper analyzes the impact of risk aversion on farmland biodiversity. Here "risk aversion" means a cautious behavior of farmers facing uncertainty. We develop a bio-economic model that articulates bird community dynamics and representative farmers selecting land uses within an uncertain macro-economic context. It is specialized and calibrated at a regional scale for France through national databases. The influence of risk aversion is assessed on ecological, agricultural, and economic outputs through projections at the 2050 horizon. A high enough risk aversion appears sufficient to both manage economic risk and promote ecological performance. This occurs through a diversification mechanism on regional land uses. However, economic calibration leads to a weak risk-aversion parameter, which is consistent with the current decline of farmland birds. Spatial disparities however suggest that public incentives could be necessary to reinforce the diversification and bio-economic effectiveness.

Ecological economics and economic growth.

Science.gov (United States)

Victor, Peter A

2010-01-01

Boulding's 1966 paper on the economics of spaceship Earth established the framework for ecological economics and an understanding of economic growth. In ecological economics, economies are conceptualized as open subsystems of the closed biosphere and are subject to biophysical laws and constraints. Economic growth measured as an increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) has generally been associated with increases in the use of energy and materials and the generation of wastes. Scale, composition, and technology are the proximate determinants of environmental impacts. They are often reduced to two: scale (GDP) and intensity (impact per unit GDP). New work described in this paper defines "green" growth as intensity that declines faster than scale increases. Similarly, "brown" growth occurs when intensity declines more slowly than increases in scale, and "black" growth happens when both scale and intensity increase. These concepts are then related to the environmental Kuznets curve, which can be understood as a transition from brown to green growth. Ecological economics provides a macroperspective on economic growth. It offers broad policy principles, and it challenges the primacy of economic growth as a policy objective, but many important questions remain.

Trust and management-to-employee communication in Slovenian companies: Some evidence from the current economic crisis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maja Makovec Brenčič

2011-01-01

Full Text Available This paper analyzes the importance of trust and management-to-employee communication among top Slovenian employers from the Golden Thread Survey. The paper analyzes the changes and impact of the deteriorating external economic situation on (a company-employee relational trust, and on the (b perceived importance of “trust and long-term relationships with the company in the eyes of the customer” by respondent managers. Furthermore, our analysis also looks at the impact of management-to-employee communication on both trust perspectives. The results show a stable level of company-employee relational trust in the face of the current economic crisis, despite a high level of perceived organizational process changes and a sharp decline in financial performance. On the other hand, the perceived importance of “trust and long-term relationships with the company in the eyes of the customer” has increased substantially as the crisis has deepened, supporting our claim that relationships and the external relationship orientation gain importance in the time of crisis. There is also a strong link between the degree of open and frequent management-to-employee communication, and both perspectives of measured trust among top Slovenian employers.

Who fears and who welcomes population decline?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hendrik P. Van Dalen

2011-08-01

Full Text Available European countries are experiencing population decline and the tacit assumption in most analyses is that the decline may have detrimental welfare effects. In this paper we use a survey among the population in the Netherlands to discover whether population decline is always met with fear. A number of results stand out: population size preferences differ by geographic proximity: at a global level the majority of respondents favors a (global population decline, but closer to home one supports a stationary population. Population decline is clearly not always met with fear: 31 percent would like the population to decline at the national level and they generally perceive decline to be accompanied by immaterial welfare gains (improvement environment as well as material welfare losses (tax increases, economic stagnation. In addition to these driving forces it appears that the attitude towards immigrants is a very strong determinant at all geographical levels: immigrants seem to be a stronger fear factor than population decline.

Discounting in Economic Evaluations.

Science.gov (United States)

Attema, Arthur E; Brouwer, Werner B F; Claxton, Karl

2018-05-19

Appropriate discounting rules in economic evaluations have received considerable attention in the literature and in national guidelines for economic evaluations. Rightfully so, as discounting can be quite influential on the outcomes of economic evaluations. The most prominent controversies regarding discounting involve the basis for and height of the discount rate, whether costs and effects should be discounted at the same rate, and whether discount rates should decline or stay constant over time. Moreover, the choice for discount rules depends on the decision context one adopts as the most relevant. In this article, we review these issues and debates, and describe and discuss the current discounting recommendations of the countries publishing their national guidelines. We finish the article by proposing a research agenda.

The current economic and financial crisis: a gender perspective

OpenAIRE

Antonopoulos, Rania

2009-01-01

Widespread economic recessions and protracted financial crises have been documented as setting back gender equality and other development goals in the past. In the midst of the current global crisis--often referred to as "the Great Recession"--there is grave concern that progress made in poverty reduction and women's equality will be reversed. Indeed, for many developing countries it is particularly worrisome that, through no fault of their own, the global economic downturn has exacerbated ef...

Decline traffic information system

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Du Plessis, K [Computer Sciences Corporation (CSC), Sydney (Australia)

2007-09-06

BHP Billion (BHPB) Cannington has experienced problems in regards to their traffic flow in the decline at the mine. The problems related to reports on near misses of vehicles moving towards each other in the decline. The decline is also to narrow for trucks to pass each other and the operators need to be aware of oncoming traffic in the decline to ensure they could take early evasive steps to ensure the rules of right of way in the decline are adhered to. BHPB Cannington requested CSC to conduct a problem analysis and to provide a solutions proposal to Cannington. The solution was put forward as an augmentation of their current safety procedures used with in the decline. During this phase of the project CSC developed a solutions architecture which involved the use of Active (Radio Frequency Identification) RFID tagging which will enable vehicle movement tracking on a real time basis after which the appropriate traffic movement can be relayed to the operators in the decline. The primary objective of the DTIS is to provide accurate information of traffic movement in the decline and present that information to the operators of the decline IN THE DECLINE upon which they would make their decisions. (orig.)

Current economic trends in equine practice.

Science.gov (United States)

Clark, Andrew R

2009-12-01

Current economic trends in equine practice are trends of weakness. Most practices, after a decade of double-digit growth, have migrated to survival mode within a few months. Understanding that all regions and disciplines are affected differently, using the Porter five forces model, we can identify changes that must be made in our business models first to survive and then to position ourselves to prosper when the recession ends. If we are to avoid long-term damage to our practices, we must use cost control and work efficiency in addition to price concessions.

Marital fertility decline in the Netherlands: child mortality, real wages, and unemployment, 1860-1939.

Science.gov (United States)

Schellekens, Jona; van Poppel, Frans

2012-08-01

Previous studies of the fertility decline in Europe are often limited to an earlier stage of the marital fertility decline, when the decline tended to be slower and before the large increase in earnings in the 1920s. Starting in 1860 (before the onset of the decline), this study follows marital fertility trends until 1939, when fertility reached lower levels than ever before. Using data from the Historical Sample of the Netherlands (HSN), this study shows that mortality decline, a rise in real income, and unemployment account for the decline in the Netherlands. This finding suggests that marital fertility decline was an adjustment to social and economic change, leaving little room for attitudinal change that is independent of social and economic change.

Engineering economic analysis of meliponiculture in Malaysia considering current market price

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Basrawi Firdaus

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Stingless bees (kelulut keeping is now a trend in Malaysia. However, since demand for the source of colony in log is increasing, the log price is rapidly increasing. But, there is no data reported on the economic viability of meliponiculture in the current market price. Thus, the objective of this study is to clarify the economic viability of investment in meliponiculture in the current market price by engineering economic perspective. Investment in meliponiculture was analysed using Equivalent Annual Uniform Cost (EAUC, Internal Rate of Return (IRR and Breakeven Analysis. A small start-up with 30 units of logs or hives was considered in the analysis. All raw data was acquainted from current Malaysian market price, but only revenue from honey was considered. It was found that EAUC indicated that the annual worth of the log system is 23% better than the hive system. However, IRR calculation indicated that both the log and the hive systems offer margin exceeding 55% which is a very good return in general investment. In addition, it was also found that the log system had breakeven after 8th month, whereas the hive was 13th month. Better economic value could be obtained if revenue from by-products are considered. Thus, it can be concluded that meliponiculture is still very economically viable in Malaysia market trend, and the hive systems could be a better choice if splitting colony, maintenance, safety and aesthetics points of view are considered.

Current evidence for the use of coffee and caffeine to prevent age-related cognitive decline and Alzheimer's disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Carman, A J; Dacks, P A; Lane, R F; Shineman, D W; Fillit, H M

2014-04-01

Although nothing has been proven conclusively to protect against cognitive aging, Alzheimer's disease or related dementias, decades of research suggest that specific approaches including the consumption of coffee may be effective. While coffee and caffeine are known to enhance short-term memory and cognition, some limited research also suggests that long-term use may protect against cognitive decline or dementia. In vitro and pre-clinical animal models have identified plausible neuroprotective mechanisms of action of both caffeine and other bioactive components of coffee, though epidemiology has produced mixed results. Some studies suggest a protective association while others report no benefit. To our knowledge, no evidence has been gathered from randomized controlled trials. Although moderate consumption of caffeinated coffee is generally safe for healthy people, it may not be for everyone, since comorbidities and personal genetics influence potential benefits and risks. Future studies could include short-term clinical trials with biomarker outcomes to validate findings from pre-clinical models and improved epidemiological studies that incorporate more standardized methods of data collection and analysis. Given the enormous economic and emotional toll threatened by the current epidemic of Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, it is critically important to validate potential prevention strategies such as coffee and caffeine.

CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN ARMENIA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Arus Tunian

2015-07-01

Full Text Available The article is devoted to the study of the problem of economic growth in Armenia. It is identified the nature of the balance of payments of the country, indicating a net debtor position, which leads to inherent deterioration of the international investment position. A small open economy of Armenia moves to a new phase of development, in the frame of the integration processes within the Customs Union and the Eurasian Economic Union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. One of the main characteristics of the Armenian economy vulnerability remains a negative balance in foreign trade, which continues to grow, despite the export growth. Economic growth is provided, as before, mostly due to the sale of raw materials - non-ferrous metals and metal ores, both in the primary as well as in the previous preprocessing. Estimating the econometric VAR models revealed that the negative current account impacts on GDP growth negatively.

Malaysia Economic Monitor, June 2017 : Data for Development

OpenAIRE

World Bank Group

2017-01-01

Malaysia’s economic growth expanded strongly in first quarter (1Q) 2017. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate for 2017 is expected to accelerate to 4.9 percent, slightly above the government’s current projection range of 4.3 to 4.8 percent. The current account surplus has declined (1Q 2017: 1.6 percent of GDP; 4Q 2016: 3.8 percent of GDP) due to strong import growth. Gross imports growth, ...

The decline of hysterectomy for benign disease.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Horgan, R P

2012-01-31

Hysterectomy is one of the most common gynaecological surgical procedures performed but there appears to be a decline in the performance of this procedure in Ireland in recent times. We set out to establish the extent of the decline of hysterectomy and to explore possible explanations. Data for hysterectomy for benign disease from Ireland was obtained from the Hospital In-Patient Enquiry Scheme (HIPE) section of the Economic and Social Research Institute for the years 1999 to 2006. The total number of hysterectomies performed for benign disease showed a consistent decline during this time. There was a 36% reduction in the number of abdominal hysterectomy procedures performed.

A prospectus for ethical analysis of ageing individuals' responsibility to prevent cognitive decline.

Science.gov (United States)

Forlini, Cynthia; Hall, Wayne

2017-11-01

As the world's population ages, governments and non-governmental organizations in developed countries are promoting healthy cognitive ageing to reduce the rate of age-related cognitive decline and sustain economic productivity in an ageing workforce. Recommendations from the Productivity Commission (Australia), Dementia Australia, Government Office for Science (UK), Presidential Commission for the Study of Bioethical Issues (USA), Institute of Medicine (USA), among others, are encouraging older adults to engage in mental, physical, and social activities. These lifestyle recommendations for healthy cognitive ageing are timely and well supported by scientific evidence but they make implicit normative judgments about the responsibility of ageing individuals to prevent cognitive decline. Ethical tensions arise when this individual responsibility collides with social and personal realities of ageing populations. First, we contextualize the priority given to healthy cognitive ageing within the current brain-based medical and social discourses. Second, we explore the individual responsibility by examining the economic considerations, medical evidence and individual interests that relate to the priority given to healthy cognitive ageing. Third, we identify three key ethical challenges for policymakers seeking to implement lifestyle recommendations as an effective population-level approach to healthy cognitive ageing. The result is a prospectus for future in-depth analysis of ethical tensions that arise from current policy discussions of healthy cognitive ageing. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The global financial crisis and neighborhood decline

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zwiers, Merle; Bolt, Gideon; Van Ham, Maarten; Van Kempen, Ronald

2016-01-01

Neighborhood decline is a complex and multidimensional process. National and regional variations in economic and political structures (including varieties in national welfare state arrangements), combined with differences in neighborhood history, development, and population composition, make it

A Brief Assessment of Intelligence Decline in Schizophrenia As Represented by the Difference between Current and Premorbid Intellectual Quotient

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kazutaka Ohi

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Patients with schizophrenia elicit several clinical features, such as psychotic symptoms, cognitive impairment, and subtle decline of intelligence. The latter two features become evident around the onset of the illness, although they may exist even before the disease onset in a substantial proportion of cases. Here, we review the literature concerning intelligence decline (ID during the progression of schizophrenia. ID can be estimated by comparing premorbid and current intellectual quotient (IQ by means of the Adult Reading Test and Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale (WAIS, respectively. For the purpose of brief assessment, we have recently developed the WAIS-Short Form, which consists of Similarities and Symbol Search and well reflects functional outcomes. According to the degree of ID, patients were classified into three distinct subgroups; deteriorated, preserved, and compromised groups. Patients who show deteriorated IQ (deteriorated group elicit ID from a premorbid level (≥10-point difference between current and premorbid IQ, while patients who show preserved or compromised IQ do not show such decline (<10-point difference. Furthermore, the latter patients were divided into patients with preserved and compromised IQ based on an estimated premorbid IQ score >90 or below 90, respectively. We have recently shown the distribution of ID in a large cohort of schizophrenia patients. Consistent with previous studies, approximately 30% of schizophrenia patients had a decline of less than 10 points, i.e., normal intellectual performance. In contrast, approximately 70% of patients showed deterioration of IQ. These results indicate that there is a subgroup of schizophrenia patients who have mild or minimal intellectual deficits, following the onset of the disorder. Therefore, a careful assessment of ID is important in identifying appropriate interventions, including medications, cognitive remediation, and social/community services.

The Decline of Coral Reefs: a Political Economy Approach

OpenAIRE

Samuel, Asumadu-Sarkodie

2015-01-01

Coral reefs provide economic services like job, food and tourism. Yet, within the past decades, there has been an overwhelming decline in the vitality of coral reefs and their ecosystem. Scientist have not be able to set the record straight regarding their scientific argument on biodiversity and ecological wealth of natural environment. Therefore, actions to recover coral reefs from destruction have proved futile. This paper will analyze the economical values, economic valuation, socioeconomi...

Past Decline Versus Current eGFR and Subsequent Mortality Risk

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Naimark, David M. J.; Grams, Morgan E.; Matsushita, Kunihiro; Black, Corri; Drion, Iefke; Fox, Caroline S.; Inker, Lesley A.; Ishani, Areef; Jee, Sun Ha; Kitamura, Akihiko; Lea, Janice P.; Nally, Joseph; Peralta, Carmen Alicia; Rothenbacher, Dietrich; Ryu, Seungho; Tonelli, Marcello; Yatsuya, Hiroshi; Coresh, Josef; Gansevoort, Ron T.; Warnock, David G.; Woodward, Mark; de Jong, Paul E.

A single determination of eGFR associates with subsequent mortality risk. Prior decline in eGFR indicates loss of kidney function, but the relationship to mortality risk is uncertain. We conducted an individual-level meta-analysis of the risk of mortality associated with antecedent eGFR slope,

Are snake populations in widespread decline?

Science.gov (United States)

Reading, C J; Luiselli, L M; Akani, G C; Bonnet, X; Amori, G; Ballouard, J M; Filippi, E; Naulleau, G; Pearson, D; Rugiero, L

2010-12-23

Long-term studies have revealed population declines in fishes, amphibians, reptiles, birds and mammals. In birds, and particularly amphibians, these declines are a global phenomenon whose causes are often unclear. Among reptiles, snakes are top predators and therefore a decline in their numbers may have serious consequences for the functioning of many ecosystems. Our results show that, of 17 snake populations (eight species) from the UK, France, Italy, Nigeria and Australia, 11 have declined sharply over the same relatively short period of time with five remaining stable and one showing signs of a marginal increase. Although the causes of these declines are currently unknown, we suspect that they are multi-faceted (such as habitat quality deterioration, prey availability), and with a common cause, e.g. global climate change, at their root.

Differentiated decline in Danish outskirt areas

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Laursen, Lea Louise Holst; Andersson, Lasse

2011-01-01

The latest figures show that minor Danish villages and rural areas through the last 20 years have suffered from depopulation and economical decline, and it is a development that seems to accelerate. The negative consequences of this development are low house prizes, a higher unemployment rate than...... in Danish rural areas can be reverted and a general growth can be created. But it will argue that on a local level using a landscape orientated and cultural planning approach new cohesion on a spatial, architectonic as well as economic and cultural level can be created. Throughout the studies of the Village...

“When the Bough Breaks” Making Sense of the Greek Economic ‘Waterloo’

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Constantinos Alexiou

2011-01-01

Full Text Available The purpose of the paper is to firstly provide a conceptual perspective on the existing European economic environment and secondly, to delineate the disastrous economic policies responsible for derailing the entire Greek economic establishment. The study expounds upon the very framework that EU policy has been conducted by scrutinizing the way some main economic indicators have fluctuated over the years. The main focus of the economic policies adopted by the EU countries should be on the strengthening of the monetary union and the euro in terms of strengthening the productive, technological, qualitative and redistributive efficiency and not in terms of weakening unions, dislocating labor market institutions, degrading and transforming the social state to “state charity”. The distorted model of development that has been religiously adhered to for many years, has caused production as well as primary surpluses to shrink dramatically, which in conjunction with inappropriate policy alternatives contributed to a prolonged recession that we are currently witnessing. The fiscal restructuring that is currently underway in Greece is bound to burden further the already crippled economic activity in so far as the new tax reforms constrain dramatically the purchasing power of its citizens. The latter in conjunction with the deregulation of the labour markets will reduce real wages markedly, causing in affect further decline in private consumption. The resulting decrease in aggregate demand will set off a self-feeding mechanism of declining production and increasing unemployment.

Maintaining Momentum and Quality in a Time of Decline: A Case Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Potter, David; And Others

1992-01-01

A discussion of the response of George Mason University (Virginia) to economic decline in 1989-92 looks at four stages in the downturn and examines a variety of planning and policy issues, including management of both unplanned and planned reductions, continued uncertainty, politics of decline, organizational communication and morale,…

Current practices in economic appraisal

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mossink, J.C.M.

2000-01-01

By means of economic appraisal, the costs and the benefits of health, environment and safety management can be made clear, both at the national level and at the company level. As such it is a tool in advocating good practices. This paper explores the possibilities of economic appraisal for policy

Dropping dead: causes and consequences of vulture population declines worldwide.

Science.gov (United States)

Ogada, Darcy L; Keesing, Felicia; Virani, Munir Z

2012-02-01

Vultures are nature's most successful scavengers, and they provide an array of ecological, economic, and cultural services. As the only known obligate scavengers, vultures are uniquely adapted to a scavenging lifestyle. Vultures' unique adaptations include soaring flight, keen eyesight, and extremely low pH levels in their stomachs. Presently, 14 of 23 (61%) vulture species worldwide are threatened with extinction, and the most rapid declines have occurred in the vulture-rich regions of Asia and Africa. The reasons for the population declines are varied, but poisoning or human persecution, or both, feature in the list of nearly every declining species. Deliberate poisoning of carnivores is likely the most widespread cause of vulture poisoning. In Asia, Gyps vultures have declined by >95% due to poisoning by the veterinary drug diclofenac, which was banned by regional governments in 2006. Human persecution of vultures has occurred for centuries, and shooting and deliberate poisoning are the most widely practiced activities. Ecological consequences of vulture declines include changes in community composition of scavengers at carcasses and an increased potential for disease transmission between mammalian scavengers at carcasses. There have been cultural and economic costs of vulture declines as well, particularly in Asia. In the wake of catastrophic vulture declines in Asia, regional governments, the international scientific and donor communities, and the media have given the crisis substantial attention. Even though the Asian vulture crisis focused attention on the plight of vultures worldwide, the situation for African vultures has received relatively little attention especially given the similar levels of population decline. While the Asian crisis has been largely linked to poisoning by diclofenac, vulture population declines in Africa have numerous causes, which have made conserving existing populations more difficult. And in Africa there has been little

Neighborhood decline and the economic crisis : an introduction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Kempen, Ronald; Bolt, Gideon; van Ham, Maarten

2016-01-01

Urban neighborhoods are still important in the lives of its residents. Therefore, it is important to find out how the recent global financial and economic crisis affects these neighborhoods. Which types of neighborhoods and which residents suffer more than others? This introduction provides an

An analysis of social consequences of rapid fertility decline in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Z; Liu, L

1988-12-01

Rapid fertility decline in China has brought about 2 direct effects: 1) the natural increase of the population has slowed down, and 2) the age structure has changed from the young to the adult type. These 2 effects have caused a series of economic and social consequences. Rapid fertility decline increases the gross national product per capita and accelerates the improvement of people's lives. Rapid fertility decline slows population growth and speeds up the accumulation of capital and the development of the economy. Since 1981, accumulation growth has exceeded consumption growth. Fertility decline alleviates the enrollment pressure on primary and secondary schools, raises the efficiency of education funds, and promotes the popularization of education. The family planning program strengthens the maternal and child health care and the medical care systems. As the result of economic development, the people's nutritional levels are improving. The physical quality of teenagers has improved steadily. The change in the age structure will alleviate the tension of rapid population growth and benefit population control in the next century. Fertility decline forces the traditional attitude toward childbearing from "more children, more happiness" to improved quality of children. The rapid fertility decline has caused a great deal of concern both inside and outside China about the aging of the population. The labor force, however, will continue to grow for the next 60 years. At present, China's population problems are still those of population growth.

Recent declines in cancer incidence: related to the Great Recession?

Science.gov (United States)

Gomez, Scarlett Lin; Canchola, Alison J; Nelson, David O; Keegan, Theresa H M; Clarke, Christina A; Cheng, Iona; Shariff-Marco, Salma; DeRouen, Mindy; Catalano, Ralph; Satariano, William A; Davidson-Allen, Kathleen; Glaser, Sally L

2017-02-01

In recent years, cancer case counts in the U.S. underwent a large, rapid decline-an unexpected change given population growth for older persons at highest cancer risk. As these declines coincided with the Great Recession, we examined whether they were related to economic conditions. Using California Cancer Registry data from California's 30 most populous counties, we analyzed trends in cancer incidence during pre-recession (1996-2007) and recession/recovery (2008-2012) periods for all cancers combined and the ten most common sites. We evaluated the recession's association with rates using a multifactorial index that measured recession impact, and modeled associations between case counts and county-level unemployment rates using Poisson regression. Yearly cancer incidence rate declines were greater during the recession/recovery (3.3% among males, 1.4% among females) than before (0.7 and 0.5%, respectively), particularly for prostate, lung, and colorectal cancers. Lower case counts, especially for prostate and liver cancer among males and breast cancer, melanoma, and ovarian cancer among females, were associated with higher unemployment rates, irrespective of time period, but independent of secular effects. The associations for melanoma translated up to a 3.6% decrease in cases with each 1% increase in unemployment. Incidence declines were not greater in counties with higher recession impact index. Although recent declines in incidence of certain cancers are not differentially impacted by economic conditions related to the Great Recession relative to pre-recession conditions, the large recent absolute declines in the case counts of some cancer may be attributable to the large declines in unemployment in the recessionary period. This may occur through decreased engagement in preventive health behaviors, particularly for clinically less urgent cancers. Continued monitoring of trends is important to detect any rises in incidence rates as deferred diagnoses come to

Decline Curve Based Models for Predicting Natural Gas Well Performance

OpenAIRE

Kamari, Arash; Mohammadi, Amir H.; Lee, Moonyong; Mahmood, Tariq; Bahadori, Alireza

2016-01-01

The productivity of a gas well declines over its production life as cannot cover economic policies. To overcome such problems, the production performance of gas wells should be predicted by applying reliable methods to analyse the decline trend. Therefore, reliable models are developed in this study on the basis of powerful artificial intelligence techniques viz. the artificial neural network (ANN) modelling strategy, least square support vector machine (LSSVM) approach, adaptive neuro-fuzzy ...

Economic development and family size.

Science.gov (United States)

Rios, R J

1991-01-01

The demographic transition in Latin America has resulted in increased family size rather than the Western European model of reduced family size. In 1905, both fertility and mortality were high in Latin America, but mortality declined more rapidly in Latin America than in Europe. In 1905, the crude birth rate for 15 selected countries averaged 44/1000 population. Western fertility at a comparable transition point was much lower at 30/1000. Between 1905 and 1960, fertility declines were evident in Uruguay, Argentina, Cuba, and Chile. Between 1960 and 1985, fertility declines appeared in Costa Rica, Panama, Brazil, and Colombia. Fertility declines were smaller in the other Latin American countries. Crude birth rates declined markedly by 1985 but may overestimate fertility decline, which is more accurately measured by standardized birth rates. Fertility decline was evident in Argentina, Chile, and Costa Rica for standardized birth rates, survivorship ratio, and births surviving past the age of 15 years. Theoretically, families are expected to reduce family size when survivorship is assured; when mortality is 25%, only four children need be planned instead of six when mortality is 50%. A result of falling mortality is a cheaper cost of producing children, which may stimulate parents to raise bigger families. Western fertility decline has been attributed to mortality decline, urbanization, increased female labor force participation, rising wages, and more efficient contraception. Comparable economic development in Latin America has not resulted in large enough changes to encourage family size limitation. A table of fertility and economic indicators for selected countries in Latin America and Europe reflects the inverse relationship between income growth, urban growth, and growth in female educational status and fertility. The regression equation explains 60% of the variation in fertility rates among Latin American countries. Explanatory power increases to 75% when female

The Decline of Literature: A Public Perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Albalawi, Mohammed

2015-01-01

After centuries of dominance, literature has not been in a robust health for the last few decades. Several scholars have addressed the decline of literature in a number of books and articles attributing it to institutional and economic reasons. However, a major factor has not been taken into account. It is the larger audience who receives and…

Alcohol taxation, economic recession, and mortality changes in five European countries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andreeva, Tatiana

2012-07-01

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Since 2008 some mortality decline is observed in several European countries including Latvia, Lithuania, and Ukraine. We hypothesized that this decline could be caused by decreased alcohol use facilitated by both economic recession and alcohol taxation. This study aimed to check this hypothesis.METHODS: Besides the abovementioned countries which suffered from the economic recession and have increased alcohol excise taxes, we considered data from the WHO-Euro mortality database for Poland which did not suffer from GDP decline and Ireland which decreased alcohol excise in 2009. Both per capita GDP growth change (from -18% in Latvia to +2% in Poland and alcohol excise change (from -20% in Ireland to +60% in Ukraine compared to 2008 rates were considered as independent variables. The outcome was percentage of real mortality decline compared to 2009 extrapolation of 2000-2008 trends, which were built using linear regression separately for major groups of death causes earlier shown to have changed in 2009. Population groups aged 30-59 were considered as those whose mortality declined most.RESULTS: Ten percent increase in alcohol excise taxes was associated with 9.4% decline in respiratory mortality from expected rate, 5.7% decline in causes of death related to nervous system, 4.9% decline in external causes of death, 4.8% decline in circulatory system deaths, 3.5% decline in infectious diseases as causes of death. Cardiovascular mortality decline was marginally associated with measurements of economic crisis (0.7% decline per 1% GDP fall.DISCUSSION: During the economic recession, the portion of all-causes mortality that has declined is most likely alcohol-related. Death causes that have mostly declined during the recession are more strongly associated with alcohol taxation than with GDP fall. Cardiovascular deaths decline related to the economic crisis could have been related to diet changes including smaller proportion of fatty and

Energy consumption declined in 1993

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1994-01-01

On presenting the energy consumption figures for 1993 the Minister for Economic Affairs of Baden-Wuerttemberg Dieter Spoeri (SPD) spoke of the eternal task of saving energy. In his view the slight decline in energy consumption from 1992 to 1993 should not be interpreted as a greater willingness to save energy; its main cause is rather to be seen in the course of the economy. According to estimations, total energy consumption fell 0.5% and electricity consumption 1.0% from 1992 to 1993. The economy on the other hand, still a decisive factor in energy consumption, is estimated to have declined 3% during that period. In the ten years from 1983 to 1993 total energy consumption in the Land rose an average annual 1.8% while electricity consumption kept astride with the economy with an average annual rise 2.7%, he said. (orig./HP) [de

Economic crisis promotes fertility decline in poor areas: Evidence from Colombia

OpenAIRE

Eleonora Davalos; Leonardo Fabio Morales

2017-01-01

Background: The effects of an economic recession extend beyond financial spheres and spill over into present and future family decisions via income restrictions and expectations. Hardly any research on the effects of economic recession on fertility outcomes has taken place in developing countries. Objective: This study seeks to explain the effects of economic cycles on fertility outcomes in poor areas. Methods: This paper analyzes fertility trends from the third largest economy in Latin...

Getting a piece of the pie? The economic boom of the 1990s and declining teen birth rates in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Colen, Cynthia G; Geronimus, Arline T; Phipps, Maureen G

2006-09-01

In the United States, the 1990s was a decade of dramatic economic growth as well as a period characterized by substantial declines in teenage childbearing. This study examines whether falling teen fertility rates during the 1990s were responsive to expanding employment opportunities and whether the implementation of the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunities Act (PRWORA), increasing rates of incarceration, or restrictive abortion policies may have affected this association. Fixed-effects Poisson regression models were estimated to assess the relationship between age-specific birth rates and state-specific unemployment rates from 1990 to 1999 for Black and White females aged 10-29. Falling unemployment rates in the 1990s were associated with decreased childbearing among African-American women aged 15-24, but were largely unrelated to declines in fertility for Whites. For 18-19 year-old African-Americans, the group for whom teen childbearing is most normative, our model accounted for 85% of the decrease in rates of first births. Young Black women, especially older teens, may have adjusted their reproductive behavior to take advantage of expanded labor market opportunities.

Economic security of the Russian Federation: current status, level and threats

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. V. Grigoryeva

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The problems of national and economic security maintenanceis aggravating in modern conditions of globalization and international competition related to controlof market channels, technological, information and natural resources.Today Russia is making all efforts to protect its position on the world stage and improve the lives of its citizens.Despite the worsening of the present economic, political and social differences in the world, the Russian Federation has its own national interests, which can be possible to fulfill only on the basis of sustainable development of the national economic security system.The latter traditionally determines the ability of the state economic system to maintain normal conditions for the national economy functioning and the population activity. The national economic securitystabilitycan be estimated only by the application of elaborate tools of the economic development indicators analysis and the threshold values examinationaimed at the determination of the quality characteristic of actual and the most successful model of the economic activity.The analysis of the current Russian economic situation showed the presence of some serious problems existing in the national economy. The economic security level of Russia, having a tendency to increase in the period of 1998-2013, has been sharply reduced to critical points since 2014. So, it is necessary to take some measures to restructure the system of economic security of the state. Based on the research it was identified the list of the most dangerous threats to the modern Russian economy, which includes: low level of the country industrial production; the economy dependence on goods import and raw materials export; low living standards of the population; the rapid growth of the shadow economy and corruption; the lack of civil science and innovationdevelopment. The main strategic directions for economic security levelincrease in Russia today and in the future are aimed at

The Development of Forms of Corporate Social Responsibility in Russia in the Current Economic Conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Natalya Arzumanova

2015-02-01

Full Text Available The article reveals the characteristic features of modern trends in the formation and implementation of corporate social responsibility in Russia in the current economic conditions, which is based on the fact that reasonable economic interests oriented business not only on maximizing profits, but also to improve their own macro - socio-economic, natural, political, through voluntary investment profits in the respective areas.

Causes and Extent of Declines among Native North American Invertebrate Pollinators: Detection, Evidence, and Consequences

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

James H. Cane

2001-06-01

Full Text Available Ecosystem health and agricultural wealth in North America depend on a particular invertebrate fauna to deliver pollination services. Extensive losses in pollinator guilds and communities can disrupt ecosystem integrity, a circumstance that today forces most farmers to rely on honey bees for much fruit and seed production. Are North America's invertebrate pollinator faunas already widely diminished or currently threatened by human activities? How would we know, what are the spatiotemporal scales for detection, and which anthropogenic factors are responsible? Answers to these questions were considered by participants in a workshop sponsored by the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis in October of 1999, and these questions form the nucleus for the papers in this special issue. Several contributors critically interpret the evidence for declines of bee and fly pollinators, the pollination deficits that should ensue, and their economic costs. Spatiotemporal unruliness in pollinator numbers, particularly bees, is shown to hinder our current insights, highlighting the need for refined survey and sampling designs. At the same time, two remarkable studies clearly show the long-term persistence of members of complex bee communities. Other authors offer new perspectives on habitat fragmentation and global warming as drivers of pollinator declines. Bees and lepidopterans are contrasted in terms of their natural genetic variation and their consequent resilience in the face of population declines. Overall, many ecologists and conservation biologists have not fully appreciated the daunting challenges that accompany sampling designs, taxonomy, and the natural history of bees, flies, and other invertebrate pollinators, a circumstance that must be remedied if we are to reliably monitor invertebrate pollinator populations and respond to their declines with effective conservation measures.

The changing pattern and determinants of declining consanguinity in Jordan during 1990-2012.

Science.gov (United States)

Islam, M Mazharul

2018-03-01

Consanguinity is a deep rooted cultural trait in Jordan. To examine the patterns and determinants of declining rates of consanguineous marriage in Jordan during 1990-2012 in the context of the changing pattern of socio-economic and demographic conditions. The data come from the 1990 and 2012 Jordan Population and Family Health Surveys (JPFHSs). A total of 6461 women in 1990 and 11,352 women in 2012 were successfully interviewed. Descriptive and multivariate statistical techniques were used for data analysis. Consanguinity was found to be widely practiced (35% in 2012) until recent times in Jordan. However, there has been a secular declining trend over the last few decades as the practice of consanguinity has declined from 56% in 1990 to 35% in 2012. Increasing age at marriage and female education, higher level of education of husbands, declining family size, increasing rate of urbanisation and female employment, exposure to mass media and higher economic status appeared as significant predictors of declining consanguinity in Jordan. The findings of this study support Goode's hypothesis of a decrease of consanguinity with modernisation. Although consanguinity is a deeply rooted cultural trend in Jordan, it is gradually losing ground due to modernisation and socio-demographic transition of the country.

Action plan against declining vineyards: An innovative approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Riou Christophe

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Declining vineyards are assessed by a multi-year decrease in vine productivity and/or its sudden premature or gradual death, based on multiple factors. Since 2015, the French wine sector has been working on an original study to identify new research avenues while launching an innovative action plan to combat vineyard decline. First, a statistical analysis enabled to estimate research efforts in the different countries. 70 factors susceptible to contribute to vineyard decline were then identified by analyzing more than 500 publications. These factors are biological, physical or linked to growing practices. While the role of pathogens is fairly well-known, the impact of the land plot or the soil on decline is less understood. Secondly, a prospective methodology was used to better identify viticulture system factors and levers affecting vines. It was thus demonstrated that yield and longevity are strongly linked to agronomy, economic variables and plant matter, plant physiology, disease, etc... These are the key issues and leverage actions to combat more strongly vineyard decline. The matrix analysis was then complemented by interviews and statistical data to imagine leverage actions. The strategic action plan is focused on four objectives: promoting training of good practices, improving plant production organization, developing vineyard observation networks, implementing an innovative research plan.

Energy intensity decline implications for stabilization of atmospheric CO2 content

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lightfoot, H.D.; Green, C.

2002-01-01

By calculating the amount of carbon-free energy required to stabilize the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere at some level, such as 550 parts per million by volume (ppmv) in 2100, the authors estimate the appropriate rate of world average annual energy intensity decline. The roles played by energy efficiency and long term sectoral changes like shifts in economic activity from high energy intensity sectors or industries to low energy intensity sectors or industries are distinguished. Advances in technology and better and improved procedures, as well as a broader adoption of more efficient technologies currently available are included in the improvements made in energy efficiency. The objective was, for the period 1990 to 2100 (110 years), to estimate the potential energy efficiency increase for world electricity generation. It is noted that electricity generation represents 38 per cent of world energy consumption in 1995, while transportation accounts for 19 per cent and residential, industrial and commercial uses account for 43 per cent. In 2100, it is expected that the overall average decline in energy intensity will be 40.1 per cent of that of 1990, according to the results obtained. Looked at from another perspective, it represents an average annual rate of energy intensity decline of 0.83 per cent for 110 years. Between 0.16 and 0.30 per cent could be added to the impact of sectoral changes on the average annual rate of decline in energy intensity, while 0.83 per cent would be attributable to improvements in energy efficiency, as shown by sensitivity analysis. 33 refs., 9 tabs., 1 fig

Farmer's lung is now in decline.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Arya, A

2012-02-03

Farmer\\'s lung incidence in Ireland was constant until 1996, even though hay making methods were revolutionised in late 1980\\'s. We undertook this study to find out the incidence of farmer\\'s lung in Ireland from 1982-2002 and its correlation with rainfall and the effect of changing farm practices. The primary cases of farmer\\'s lung were identified from Hospital in Patients Enquiry (HIPE) unit of the national Economic & Social Research Institute (ESRI) Dublin. Rainfall data were obtained from Met Eireann whereas population, hay production and silage production were obtained from the Central Statistics Office, Dublin. As the farming population is in decline, we used the annual working unit (AWU), which reflects the true population at risk. An AWU is the equivalent of 1800 hours per farm worker per year. The incidence rates were constant from 1982-1996, but from 1997-2002 a marked decline was observed. There was strong positive correlation with hay production (r = 0.81) and strong negative correlation with silage production (r = -0.82). This study indicates that the incidence of farmer\\'s lung is now in decline.

The Crisis of Economic Theory in the Middle of the Economic Crisis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Silvia MĂRGINEAN

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Keynesian economics has lost much of its effectiveness as a paradigm of world capitalism as a whole, or as a paradigm of individual developed capitalist economies. The decline of the United States as a hegemonic power capable of imposing its will over others has seen to the erosion of the relevance of the Keynesian doctrine on the global scale. The Philips curve and what Hicks calls the “social” pressure on wages have severely restricted the field of Keynesian policy at home – even through the ruling classes continue to use Keynesian theory as their paradigm. The most important lesson from Keynes work may be that the macroeconomist should start from the important problems of the day and should face the following questions: 1 How can we to understand what are is happening right now? 2 What can be done about it? What is the best policy to follow? 3 Do recent events force us to modify what is today widely accepted economic theory? If so, what is wrong and how might we go about arriving at a more satisfying theory? The most important economic problem of today is current financial crisis that started in the United States. What might we learn from Keynesian theory about it? The current situation is almost the opposite of the one that Keynes dealt with in the “General Theory”. Now day’s economics lacks an anchored understanding of the nature of the reality that economics is supposed to illuminate. Instability of leverage, connectivity, and potential instability of the price level have all been neglected in stable – with – fractions macro theory. Technical innovations will not bring real progress as long as “stability – with – fractions” remains the ruling paradigm. Meanwhile, governments are not prepared to face another crisis.

Declining Use of Wild Resources by Indigenous Peoples of the Ecuadorian Amazon.

Science.gov (United States)

Gray, Clark L; Bozigar, Matthew; Bilsborrow, Richard E

2015-02-01

Wild product harvesting by forest-dwelling peoples, including hunting, fishing, forest product collection and timber harvesting, is believed to be a major threat to the biodiversity of tropical forests worldwide. Despite this threat, few studies have attempted to quantify these activities across time or across large spatial scales. We use a unique longitudinal household survey (n = 480) to describe changes in these activities over time in 32 indigenous communities from five ethnicities in the northern Ecuadorian Amazon. To provide insight into the drivers of these changes, we also estimate multilevel statistical models of these activities as a function of household and community characteristics. These analyses reveal that participation in hunting, fishing, and forest product collection is high but declining across time and across ethnicities, with no evidence for a parallel decline in resource quality. However, participation in timber harvesting did not significantly decline and there is evidence of a decline in resource quality. Multilevel statistical models additionally reveal that household and community characteristics such as ethnicity, demographic characteristics, wealth, livelihood diversification, access to forest, participation in conservation programs and exposure to external markets are significant predictors of wild product harvesting. These characteristics have changed over time but cannot account for declining participation in resource harvesting. This finding suggests that participation is declining due to changes in the regional-scale social and economic context, including urbanization and the expansion of government infrastructure and services. The lesson for conservationists is that macro-scale social and economic conditions can drive reductions in wild product harvesting even in the absence of successful conservation interventions.

Ohia forest decline: its spread and severity in Hawaii

Science.gov (United States)

Edwin Q. P. Petteys; Robert E. Burgan; Robert E. Nelson

1975-01-01

Ohia forest decline–its severity and rate of spread–was studied by aerial photographic techniques on a 197,000-acre (80,000-ha) portion of the island of Hawaii. In 1954, only 300 acres (121 ha) showed signs of severe decline; by 1972, the acreage of severely affected forest had increased to 85,200 acres (34,480 ha). Rate of decline and current severity were related to...

To what extent does IQ 'explain' socio-economic variations in function?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

van Eijk Jacques

2007-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The aims of this study were to examine the extent to which higher intellectual abilities protect higher socio-economic groups from functional decline and to examine whether the contribution of intellectual abilities is independent of childhood deprivation and low birth weight and other socio-economic and developmental factors in early life. Methods The Maastricht Aging Study (MAAS is a prospective cohort study based upon participants in a registration network of general practices in The Netherlands. Information was available on 1211 men and women, 24 – 81 years old, who were without cognitive impairment at baseline (1993 – 1995, who ever had a paid job, and who participated in the six-year follow-up. Main outcomes were longitudinal decline in important components of quality of life and successful aging, i.e., self-reported physical, affective, and cognitive functioning. Results Persons with a low occupational level at baseline showed more functional decline than persons with a high occupational level. Socio-economic and developmental factors from early life hardly contributed to the adult socio-economic differences in functional decline. Intellectual abilities, however, took into account more than one third of the association between adult socio-economic status and functional decline. The contribution of the intellectual abilities was independent of the early life factors. Conclusion Rather than developmental and socio-economic characteristics of early life, the findings substantiate the importance of intellectual abilities for functional decline and their contribution – as potential, but neglected confounders – to socio-economic differences in functioning, successful aging, and quality of life. The higher intellectual abilities in the higher socio-economic status groups may also underlie the higher prevalences of mastery, self-efficacy and efficient coping styles in these groups.

Competitive actions of small firms in a declining market

Science.gov (United States)

Matthew Bumgardner; Urs Buehlmann; Albert Schuler; Jeff Crissey

2011-01-01

Small firms, through their flexibility advantages and closeness to customers, potentially can increase their sales volume in economic downturns. The decline in U.S. housing construction (beginning in 2006) provided an opportunity to develop and test four hypotheses predicting the attributes and marketing actions associated with successful companies supplying housing...

The current Russian model of social development, and economic growth

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V V Paramonov

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Although the Article 7 of the Constitution of Russia adopted in 1993 defines the country as a social state, the contemporary social and economic situation is significantly different from this declaration. The author considers the current situation focusing on the foundations of the welfare state. The indicators of social inequality and stratification that allow to identify the country as a social state prove the widening gap between the rich and poor. In recent years, nothing has been done to achieve the more equitable distribution of income and national wealth, which led to the further growth of social inequality exceeding the global indices. The author believes that the high level of social inequality negatively affects the economic growth. Based on the studies of Russian scientists he concludes that equal distribution of income provides higher rates of economic growth and prosperity of the country. The modified theory of the factors of production explains this interconnection, and adds a few more factors, including such a specific resource as sales market, to three factors introduced by J.B. Say at the beginning of the XIX century. The huge social inequality and, consequently, a significant number of the poor deprive the country of such an important resource. To change the situation, the author proposes to return to the progressive tax scale and introduce the zero rate of income tax for the poorest groups in order to create prerequisites for the growth of consumer demand under the economic crisis.

A human-driven decline in global burned area.

Science.gov (United States)

Andela, N; Morton, D C; Giglio, L; Chen, Y; van der Werf, G R; Kasibhatla, P S; DeFries, R S; Collatz, G J; Hantson, S; Kloster, S; Bachelet, D; Forrest, M; Lasslop, G; Li, F; Mangeon, S; Melton, J R; Yue, C; Randerson, J T

2017-06-30

Fire is an essential Earth system process that alters ecosystem and atmospheric composition. Here we assessed long-term fire trends using multiple satellite data sets. We found that global burned area declined by 24.3 ± 8.8% over the past 18 years. The estimated decrease in burned area remained robust after adjusting for precipitation variability and was largest in savannas. Agricultural expansion and intensification were primary drivers of declining fire activity. Fewer and smaller fires reduced aerosol concentrations, modified vegetation structure, and increased the magnitude of the terrestrial carbon sink. Fire models were unable to reproduce the pattern and magnitude of observed declines, suggesting that they may overestimate fire emissions in future projections. Using economic and demographic variables, we developed a conceptual model for predicting fire in human-dominated landscapes. Copyright © 2017 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.

Current challenges in health economic modeling of cancer therapies: a research inquiry.

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Jeffrey D; Foley, Kathleen A; Russell, Mason W

2014-05-01

The demand for economic models that evaluate cancer treatments is increasing, as healthcare decision makers struggle for ways to manage their budgets while providing the best care possible to patients with cancer. Yet, after nearly 2 decades of cultivating and refining techniques for modeling the cost-effectiveness and budget impact of cancer therapies, serious methodologic and policy challenges have emerged that question the adequacy of economic modeling as a sound decision-making tool in oncology. We sought to explore some of the contentious issues associated with the development and use of oncology economic models as informative tools in current healthcare decision-making. Our objective was to draw attention to these complex pharmacoeconomic concerns and to promote discussion within the oncology and health economics research communities. Using our combined expertise in health economics research and economic modeling, we structured our inquiry around the following 4 questions: (1) Are economic models adequately addressing questions relevant to oncology decision makers; (2) What are the methodologic limitations of oncology economic models; (3) What guidelines are followed for developing oncology economic models; and (4) Is the evolution of oncology economic modeling keeping pace with treatment innovation? Within the context of each of these questions, we discuss issues related to the technical limitations of oncology modeling, the availability of adequate data for developing models, and the problems with how modeling analyses and results are presented and interpreted. There is general acceptance that economic models are good, essential tools for decision-making, but the practice of oncology and its rapidly evolving technologies present unique challenges that make assessing and demonstrating value especially complex. There is wide latitude for improvement in oncology modeling methodologies and how model results are presented and interpreted. Complex technical and

A decomposition analysis of recent fertility decline in Fiji.

Science.gov (United States)

Gubhaju, B; Shahidullah, M

1990-12-01

Over the period 1966-86, both the Fijian and Indian populations of Fiji demonstrated declines in fertility. Differentials in the decline were, however, noted with the total fertility rate (TFR) of the Fijian population declining by 26% over the period compared to a 50% decline in the Indian TFR. Moreover, rate declines were not smooth and consistent over the period. Faster fertility decline was experienced in the 1st decade for both groups, slowing in the 2nd decade for Indian women, and stabilizing among the Fijians. This paper decomposes these differential changes in fertility rate into marital structure and marital fertility. The study was conducted using data from the censuses of 1966, 1976, and 1986. For the period 1966-76, declines in marital fertility contributed most to overall TFR decline for both ethnic groups. Marital structure had a reducing effect upon TFR among Indian women in the 1st decaed, but not during the 2nd. Fijian women experienced an overall negative impact from marital structure. Contraception plays an important role in limiting fertility in these 2 populations. Accordingly, differentials in acceptance were noticed, the family planning acceptance rate for Indians being almost twice that of Fijians; 35.6% and 18.7%, respectively in 1986. Compared to Indian women, Fijian women were more literate, more economically active, had higher life expectancies, and experience lower infant mortality rates. Nonetheless, they are not motivated to use family planning. Motivational, cultural, religious, and behavioral factors are suggested as causal factors determining acceptance and use of modern contraceptive methods.

The Current Status and Prospects of the Economic Relationship between North Korea and China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Myoungchul Cho

1998-06-01

Full Text Available After the socialist market collapse after 1990s, the economic relationship of North Korea and China is becoming closer. It can be proven by the fact that economic relationship between this two countries are transferring from the national trade model to various models such as border trade, agency trade, the illicit trade and investment aid. In this progress, North Korea rely China more than in 1990. But after 1992, the economic relationship is falling from the political priority as before, blind support and assistance based on the nature of the economic benefits to the rapid changes in relationship. This thesis reviewed economic relations in the world environment which has changed. First it analyzed the national economy and trade policies adopted in the current situation of two countries, and on this basis, it looked forward to the economic relationship between the two countries, and point out the measures regarding the relationship between two countries.

Ethnic divisions, political institutions and the duration of declines: A political economy theory of delayed recovery

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bluhm, R; Thomsson, K.M.

2015-01-01

This paper analyzes the duration of large economic declines and provides a theory of delayed recovery. First, we develop a formal political economy model that illustrates a simple mechanism of how weak constraints on the political executive can lead to longer declines in ethnically heterogeneous

Operating a railway system within a challenging environment: Economic history and experiences of Zimbabwe’s national railways

OpenAIRE

Charles Mbohwa

2008-01-01

This paper presents a historical background to the development of the railways in Zimbabwe and then discusses their current state. Besides being a landlocked country in Southern Africa, Zimbabwe has since 2000 been saddled with socio-economic and political challenges which have seen a decline in all economic indices, hence posing some challenges to its railways. This article discusses the challenges faced by the railways as a result of high inflation, unstable currency exchange rate, brain dr...

Has Economics become an Elite Subject for Elite UK Universities?

Science.gov (United States)

Johnston, James; Reeves, Alan; Talbot, Steven

2014-01-01

The decline in the number of UK universities offering undergraduate degree programmes in subjects such as sciences, mathematics, modern languages and humanities has been well documented and is now of real concern. It appears that economics may be going through a decline in new (post-1992) UK universities with many economics programmes having been…

AFRICAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC REVIEW

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Dr Kazungu

(X-M) = net export. From the Keynesian ... believe in the markets forces to guarantee full employment equilibrium. Therefore, the ..... Lesotho: the Decline in SACU Revenue,” American Journal of Economics, 2(1), 8-. 14. Musgrave ... Wagner's law: Empirical evidence from Chinese provinces,” China Economic. Review, 19(2) ...

A current value Hamiltonian Approach for Discrete time Optimal Control Problems arising in Economic Growth

OpenAIRE

Naz, Rehana

2018-01-01

Pontrygin-type maximum principle is extended for the present value Hamiltonian systems and current value Hamiltonian systems of nonlinear difference equations for uniform time step $h$. A new method termed as a discrete time current value Hamiltonian method is established for the construction of first integrals for current value Hamiltonian systems of ordinary difference equations arising in Economic growth theory.

The birth rate decline in developing countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Robey, B

1993-01-01

Family planning programs historically have played an important role in providing information and counseling and supplying modern methods. Most programs are effective due to socioeconomic development and strong political support. Potential demand for services will be growing. This means that donor agencies must commit additional funding, and users must begin paying or paying more for contraceptives. Services and method choices need to be expanded, and quality of care needs to be improved. Three primary factors will impact on fertility decline: 1) the rate of social development, 2) the speed with which small family norms spread and contraception is adopted, and 3) the facility of private and public suppliers to meet contraceptive demand. Other factors influence reproductive decisions (women's roles and status, economic hardships or opportunities, religion, ethnicity, culture, and tradition). Contraceptive prevalence has increased from under 10% in the 1960s to 38% of all married, reproductive age women in the developing world, excluding China, which has contraceptive prevalence of 72%. Regional differences are wide. In Latin America, contraceptive use averages nearly 60% and ranges from over 50% in 10 countries and below 38% in Bolivia, Guatemala, and Haiti. Contraceptive prevalence is above average in Indonesia (50%), Sri Lanka (62%), and Thailand (68%) and just below average in Bangladesh (40%), India (45%), Philippines (34%), and Vietnam (53%). Sub-Saharan Africa has the lowest prevalence, except for Zimbabwe (45%), Botswana (35%), and Kenya (27%). 80% of current users rely on modern methods. In most surveyed countries, 20-30% of married women have unmet demand. Fertility decline, unmet demand, and contraceptive use have all been affected by the diffusion of ideas about the use of family planning and the small family norm. Innovators are usually high status, educated women, who spread their views to other social groups or geographic areas. The spread can be rapid

Cardiovascular disease mortality in the Americas: current trends and disparities.

Science.gov (United States)

de Fatima Marinho de Souza, Maria; Gawryszewski, Vilma Pinheiro; Orduñez, Pedro; Sanhueza, Antonio; Espinal, Marcos A

2012-08-01

To describe the current situation and trends in mortality due to cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the Americas and explore their association with economic indicators. This time series study analysed mortality data from 21 countries in the region of the Americas from 2000 to the latest available year. Age-adjusted death rates, annual variation in death rates. Regression analysis was used to estimate the annual variation and the association between age-adjusted rates and country income. Currently, CVD comprised 33.7% of all deaths in the Americas. Rates were higher in Guyana (292/100 000), Trinidad and Tobago (289/100 000) and Venezuela (246/100 000), and lower in Canada (108/100 000), Puerto Rico (121/100 000) and Chile (125/100 000). Male rates were higher than female rates in all countries. The trend analysis showed that CVD death rates in the Americas declined -19% overall (-20% among women and -18% among men). Most countries had a significant annual decline, except Guatemala, Guyana, Suriname, Paraguay and Panama. The largest annual declines were observed in Canada (-4.8%), the USA (-3.9%) and Puerto Rico (-3.6%). Minor declines were in Mexico (-0.8%) and Cuba (-1.1%). Compared with high-income countries the difference between the median of death rates in lower middle-income countries was 56.7% higher and between upper middle-income countries was 20.6% higher. CVD death rates have been decreasing in most countries in the Americas. Considerable disparities still remain in the current rates and trends.

Autobiographical memory decline in Alzheimer’s Disease

Science.gov (United States)

EL HAJ, Mohamad; Antoine, Pascal; Nandrino, Jean-Louis; Kapogiannis, Dimitrios

2016-01-01

Autobiographical memory, or memory for personal experiences, allows individuals to define themselves and construct a meaningful life story. Decline of this ability, as observed in Alzheimer’s Disease (AD), results in an impaired sense of self and identity. We present a critical review of theories and findings regarding cognitive and neuroanatomical underpinnings of autobiographical memory and its decline in AD and highlight studies on its clinical rehabilitation. We propose that autobiographical recall in AD is mainly characterized by loss of associated episodic information, which leads to de-contextualisation of autobiographical memories and a shift from reliving past events to a general sense of familiarity. This decline refers to retrograde, but also anterograde amnesia that affects newly acquired memories besides remote ones. One consequence of autobiographical memory decline in AD is decreased access to memories that shape self-consciousness, self-knowledge, and self-images, leading to a diminished sense of self and identity. The link between autobiographical decline and compromised sense of self in AD can also manifest itself as low correspondence and coherence between past memories and current goals and beliefs. By linking cognitive, neuroanatomical, and clinical aspects of autobiographical decline in AD, our review provides a theoretical foundation, which may lead to better rehabilitation strategies. PMID:26876367

Ebola, jobs and economic activity in Liberia.

Science.gov (United States)

Bowles, Jeremy; Hjort, Jonas; Melvin, Timothy; Werker, Eric

2016-03-01

The 2014 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in the neighbouring West African countries of Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone represents the most significant setback to the region's development in over a decade. This study provides evidence on the extent to which economic activity declined and jobs disappeared in Liberia during the outbreak. To estimate how the level of activity and number of jobs in a given set of firms changed during the outbreak, we use a unique panel data set of registered firms surveyed by the business-development non-profit organisation, Building Markets. We also compare the change in economic activity during the outbreak, across regions of the country that had more versus fewer Ebola cases in a difference-in-differences approach. We find a large decrease in economic activity and jobs in all of Liberia during the Ebola outbreak, and an especially large decline in Monrovia. Outside of Monrovia, the restaurants, and food and beverages sectors have suffered the most among the surveyed sectors, and in Monrovia, the construction and restaurant sectors have shed the most employees, while the food and beverages sectors experienced the largest drop in new contracts. We find little association between the incidence of Ebola cases and declines in economic activity outside of Monrovia. If the large decline in economic activity that occurred during the Ebola outbreak persists, a focus on economic recovery may need to be added to the efforts to rebuild and support the healthcare system in order for Liberia to regain its footing. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Doing good when times are bad: volunteering behaviour in economic hard times.

Science.gov (United States)

Lim, Chaeyoon; Laurence, James

2015-06-01

This paper examines how the 2008-9 recession has affected volunteering behaviours in the UK. Using a large survey dataset, we assess the recession effects on both formal volunteering and informal helping behaviours. Whilst both formal volunteering and informal helping have been in decline in the UK since 2008, the size of the decline is significantly larger for informal helping than for formal volunteering. The decline is more salient in regions that experienced a higher level of unemployment during the recession and also in socially and economically disadvantaged communities. However, we find that a growing number of people who personally experienced financial insecurity and hardship do not explain the decline. We argue that the decline has more to do with community-level factors such as civic organizational infrastructure and cultural norms of trust and engagement than personal experiences of economic hardship. © London School of Economics and Political Science 2015.

Decline in tropospheric NO2 and the effects of the 2008-09 economic crisis observed by OMI over Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Castellanos, P.; Boersma, F. F.

2011-12-01

We present a trend analysis of tropospheric NO2 for the time period of 2004-2010. Necessary for monitoring pollution abatement strategies, NO2 trends analyses are often based on surface networks, which suffer from high NO2 biases and spatial representativity issues inherent to the standard monitoring method (thermal reduction of NO2 followed by reaction with ozone and chemiluminescence). Space based NO2 trends are unbiased and self-consistent, but over Europe they have not been as obvious as those observed over North America and East Asia. In this work we exploit the daily NO2 column observations from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) in order to isolate long-term (timescales greater than one year) variability in NO2 over Europe without imposing a parametric fit to the data. In general, we find between 2005 and 2008, 1-5% per year declines in NO2 concentration in many polluted regions (e.g. Germany, Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, Spain), but also 1-5% per year increases over the English Channel and the southern North Sea (a major shipping channel), as well as the United Kingdom, northern France and Eastern Europe. In 2009, NO2 almost exclusively decreased over Europe at a rate of 5-10% per year, coinciding with the abrupt decrease in industrial production and construction prompted by the global economic crisis. By 2010, in many areas the NO2 rate of change returned to pre-2009 levels suggesting economic recovery. We employ a simple fitting model to separate the forcing by meteorological variability, which can influence apparent NO2 trends, from that of NOx emissions. We calculate 1-3% per year NOx emissions reduction rates over most of Europe and an additional 15-30% per year decrease in NOx emissions during the economic crisis time period.

Participation in population-based case-control studies: does the observed decline vary by socio-economic status?

Science.gov (United States)

Mazloum, Marie; Bailey, Helen D; Heiden, Tamika; Armstrong, Bruce K; de Klerk, Nicholas; Milne, Elizabeth

2012-05-01

An Australian study of childhood leukaemia (Aus-ALL) previously reported that control participation was positively associated with socio-economic status (SES). A similar study of childhood brain tumours (Aus-CBT) was carried out 4 years later, and this paper compares control participation and its relationship with SES in the two studies. To assess the representativeness of controls in terms of SES, the addresses of controls were linked to Australian Bureau of Statistics Census 2006 Collection Districts (CDs), and hence to area-based indices of SES. Independent sample t-tests and chi-squared tests were used to compare the SES indices of CDs where Aus-CBT controls lived with those where Aus-ALL controls lived and with those of all CDs where Australian families lived. The overall percentage of eligible families who agreed to participate was lower in Aus-CBT (53.9%) than in Aus-ALL (70.3%). Control families in both studies were of higher SES than the general population, while the distribution of SES among recruited controls was similar in both studies. These findings provide some reassurance that the observed decline in research participation over time may not be associated with an increasingly unrepresentative participant population. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

New approaches to business cycle theory in current economic science

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Monica DOBRESCU

2012-07-01

Full Text Available In modern economies, current research generally acknowledges that the central issues in macroeconomics are essentially the same as those identified by Keynes in the General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. One way or the other, economists are trying to address the same macroeconomic issues that they did seven decades ago: How can we account for the different growth rates and various fluctuations observed in national economies? Which are the economic policies most suitable to solve the issues of growth and cyclic behavior? Both the new classicals and the new Keynesians have made considerable progress within their research paradigms: to explain economic fluctuations, the new classicals focus on technological perturbations, the intertemporal substitution of leisure and real business cycles; on the other hand, the new Keynesians speak in terms of monopolistic competition, menu costs or efficiency wages. On the whole, the new classicals believe that the business cycle can best be understood within the market-clearing model, whereas the new keynesians believe that business fluctuations are due to certain market failures of various sorts.The present paper focuses on the main directions of research of the new classical school on the business cycle, given that the theoretical progress in this field has been significant and relevant for economic policy during the past four decades.

The Economics Degree in Australia: Down but Not out?

Science.gov (United States)

Round, David K.; Shanahan, Martin P.

2010-01-01

Before 1980, strong demand existed in Australia for the economics degree. Since then, competition from programs in business and management has increased. Student preferences have shifted from university and secondary economics. Economics enrollments have declined in both sectors. The authors analyze these trends and assess economic education…

Creation of a gilded trap by the high economic value of the Maine lobster fishery.

Science.gov (United States)

Steneck, R S; Hughes, T P; Cinner, J E; Adger, W N; Arnold, S N; Berkes, F; Boudreau, S A; Brown, K; Folke, C; Gunderson, L; Olsson, P; Scheffer, M; Stephenson, E; Walker, B; Wilson, J; Worm, B

2011-10-01

Unsustainable fishing simplifies food chains and, as with aquaculture, can result in reliance on a few economically valuable species. This lack of diversity may increase risks of ecological and economic disruptions. Centuries of intense fishing have extirpated most apex predators in the Gulf of Maine (United States and Canada), effectively creating an American lobster (Homarus americanus) monoculture. Over the past 20 years, the economic diversity of marine resources harvested in Maine has declined by almost 70%. Today, over 80% of the value of Maine's fish and seafood landings is from highly abundant lobsters. Inflation-corrected income from lobsters in Maine has steadily increased by nearly 400% since 1985. Fisheries managers, policy makers, and fishers view this as a success. However, such lucrative monocultures increase the social and ecological consequences of future declines in lobsters. In southern New England, disease and stresses related to increases in ocean temperature resulted in more than a 70% decline in lobster abundance, prompting managers to propose closing that fishery. A similar collapse in Maine could fundamentally disrupt the social and economic foundation of its coast. We suggest the current success of Maine's lobster fishery is a gilded trap. Gilded traps are a type of social trap in which collective actions resulting from economically attractive opportunities outweigh concerns over associated social and ecological risks or consequences. Large financial gain creates a strong reinforcing feedback that deepens the trap. Avoiding or escaping gilded traps requires managing for increased biological and economic diversity. This is difficult to do prior to a crisis while financial incentives for maintaining the status quo are large. The long-term challenge is to shift fisheries management away from single species toward integrated social-ecological approaches that diversify local ecosystems, societies, and economies. ©2011 Society for Conservation

Early decline of asparagus in the Netherlands : etiology, epidemiology and management

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Blok, W.J.

1997-01-01

Asparagus plants on fields cropped with asparagus before establish well but economic life of the crop is only half of that on fresh land. Fusarium oxysporum f.sp. asparagi was identified as the main cause of this early decline. Autotoxic compounds

Economics of Alaska North Slope gas utilization options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thomas, C.P.; Doughty, T.C.; Hackworth, J.H.; North, W.B.; Robertson, E.P.

1996-08-01

The recoverable natural gas available for sale in the developed and known undeveloped fields on the Alaskan North Slope (ANS) total about 26 trillion cubic feet (TCF), including 22 TCF in the Prudhoe Bay Unit (PBU) and 3 TCF in the undeveloped Point Thomson Unit (PTU). No significant commercial use has been made of this large natural gas resource because there are no facilities in place to transport this gas to current markets. To date the economics have not been favorable to support development of a gas transportation system. However, with the declining trend in ANS oil production, interest in development of this huge gas resource is rising, making it important for the U.S. Department of Energy, industry, and the State of Alaska to evaluate and assess the options for development of this vast gas resource. The purpose of this study was to assess whether gas-to-liquids (GTL) conversion technology would be an economic alternative for the development and sale of the large, remote, and currently unmarketable ANS natural gas resource, and to compare the long term economic impact of a GTL conversion option to that of the more frequently discussed natural gas pipeline/liquefied natural gas (LNG) option. The major components of the study are: an assessment of the ANS oil and gas resources; an analysis of conversion and transportation options; a review of natural gas, LNG, and selected oil product markets; and an economic analysis of the LNG and GTL gas sales options based on publicly available input needed for assumptions of the economic variables. Uncertainties in assumptions are evaluated by determining the sensitivity of project economics to changes in baseline economic variables

Current economic downturn and supply chain : The significance of demand and inventory smoothing

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Cannella, S.; Ashayeri, J.; Miranda, P.A.; Bruccoleri, M.

2014-01-01

The aim of this article is to analyse and quantify the effects of demand and inventory smoothing into supply-chain performance, facing the extreme volatility and impetuous alteration of the market produced by the current economic recession. To do so, we model a traditional serial three-stage supply

Government takes decline as nations diversify terms to attract investment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meurs, A.P. van; Seck, A.

1997-01-01

A new review of 324 fiscal systems in 159 countries indicates that the trend of declines in government take has continued during the last 2 years. An earlier OGJ article concluded that government take had declined considerably during the previous decade in response to an increased availability of acreage. The fiscal system rating is based on eight economic yardsticks. They are: rate of return; net present value per barrel; ability to absorb geological risk; attractiveness of incremental exploration investments; attractiveness of incremental development investments; government take; bonanza economics; and the degree of front-end loading of the fiscal system. Based on these criteria the fiscal systems are rated, based on a point system, from the most attractive (five star) terms to the least attractive (one star). Table 1 provides an overview of the rating and ranking of 50 of the most interesting fiscal systems. Figure 1 provides the government take and corporate take for the systems listed in Table 1, based on a weighted average of 12 fields. The paper discusses attractive, tough, and diversifying terms, and regional competition

Economic recession and fertility in the developed world.

Science.gov (United States)

Sobotka, Tomáš; Skirbekk, Vegard; Philipov, Dimiter

2011-01-01

This article reviews research on the effects of economic recessions on fertility in the developed world. We study how economic downturns, as measured by various indicators, especially by declining GDP levels, falling consumer confidence, and rising unemployment, were found to affect fertility. We also discuss particular mechanisms through which the recession may have influenced fertility behavior, including the effects of economic uncertainty, falling income, changes in the housing market, and rising enrollment in higher education, and also factors that influence fertility indirectly such as declining marriage rates. Most studies find that fertility tends to be pro-cyclical and often rises and declines with the ups and downs of the business cycle. Usually, these aggregate effects are relatively small (typically, a few percentage points) and of short durations; in addition they often influence especially the timing of childbearing and in most cases do not leave an imprint on cohort fertility levels. Therefore, major long-term fertility shifts often continue seemingly uninterrupted during the recession—including the fertility declines before and during the Great Depression of the 1930s and before and during the oil shock crises of the 1970s. Changes in the opportunity costs of childbearing and fertility behavior during economic downturn vary by sex, age, social status, and number of children; childless young adults are usually most affected. Furthermore, various policies and institutions may modify or even reverse the relationship between recessions and fertility. The first evidence pertaining to the recent recession falls in line with these findings. In most countries, the recession has brought a decline in the number of births and fertility rates, often marking a sharp halt to the previous decade of rising fertility rates.

Economic Education in Korea: Current Status and Changes

Science.gov (United States)

Hahn, Jinsoo; Jang, Kyungho

2010-01-01

The authors describe key aspects of precollege and undergraduate economic education in Korea. They show that precollege students seem to have low economics literacy due to problems with the curriculum and insufficient training of teachers. At the undergraduate level, they show that economics departments have more male students than female students…

[The declining socioeconomic prospects of Latinos of Mexican origin in the United States].

Science.gov (United States)

Levine, E

1998-01-01

"This document analyzes how the changes in the labor market conditions in the U.S. and the ongoing crisis in Mexico interact to create conditions under which it becomes increasingly more difficult for Mexican immigrants and their children to advance economically in the U.S. Even for second and third generation of [Latinos] from Mexico the educational levels, and hence wage and salary levels, are extremely low. Given the transformation that currently characterize the U.S. labor market--the growth of the service sector employment and a decline in the number of manufacturing jobs, the increased participation of women and [Latinos] in the labor force, and the rising number of contingent workers--the future perspectives for [Latinos] from Mexico, and even [Latinos] in general, do not look good." (EXCERPT)

Stock markets and criticality in the current economic crisis

Science.gov (United States)

da Silva, Roberto; Zembrzuski, Marcelo; Correa, Fabio C.; Lamb, Luis C.

2010-12-01

We show that the current economic crisis has led the market to exhibit a non-critical behavior. We do so by analyzing the quantitative parameters of time series from the main assets of the Brazilian Stock Market BOVESPA. By monitoring global persistence we show a deviation of power law behavior during the crisis in a strong analogy with spin systems (from where this concept was originally conceived). Such behavior is corroborated by an emergent heavy tail of absolute return distribution and also by the magnitude autocorrelation exponent. Comparisons with universal exponents obtained in the international stock markets are also performed. This suggests how a thorough analysis of suitable exponents can bring a possible way of forecasting market crises characterized by non-criticality.

Anti-discrimination Philosophy and the Decline of Post-capitalist Democracies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dan Pavel

2012-04-01

Full Text Available The author is trying to explain the contrasts existing between the expanding universe of anti-discrimination sanctions and the decline in legitimacy of democracy. The declining legitimacy affects both consolidated democracies, and newborn democracies. Inequality in the USA, but also at global level is illustrated with relevant statistics. The convergence between the crisis of democracy and the financial and economic global crisis is a major social and political threat. At the global level, after the Arab Spring, the third wave of democratization continued, while the quality of democracy substantially diminished. In the newborn Islamic democracies, discrimination against women, Christians, Jews, gay & lesbians, etc. continued, leading to arson, torture and killings.

CT-quantified emphysema in male heavy smokers : association with lung function decline

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mohamed Hoesein, Firdaus A A; de Hoop, Bartjan; Zanen, Pieter; Gietema, Hester; Kruitwagen, Cas L J J; van Ginneken, Bram; Isgum, Ivana; Mol, Christian; van Klaveren, Rob J; Dijkstra, Akkelies E; Groen, Hendricus; Boezen, Hendrika; Postma, Dirkje S; Prokop, Mathias; Lammers, Jan-Willem J

BACKGROUND: Emphysema and small airway disease both contribute to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), a disease characterised by accelerated decline in lung function. The association between the extent of emphysema in male current and former smokers and lung function decline was

THE ECONOMIC FACTORS OF THE ‘ABBASID DECLINE DURING THE BUWAYHID RULE IN THE FOURTH/TENTH CENTURY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Udjang Tholib

2009-08-01

Full Text Available The ‘Abbasid caliphate in the fourth/tenth century suffered from a sharp economic decline. This was the result of several factors, mainly civil wars, the Zanj and Qarmatian revolts, political interference by the Turkish and Daylamite soldiers, military iqta‘ and the activity of the ‘ayyarun. The civil wars had a destructive effect on the city of Baghdad and its citizens, ruined most of the land and caused a devaluation of dirham and dinars. The revolts of the Zanj and Qarmatians paralyzed trade in southern Iraq leading to a stagnation of currency and the banking system and a decrease in financial activity. The involvement of the Turkish and Daylamite soldiers in politics, and rivalries among them to gain power, led to the devastation of canals, dams and consequently ruined the agricultural sector. In addition, the introduction of military iqta‘ during this period resulted in the damage of cultivated lands due to their excessive exploitation and abandonment of their irrigation system. Finally, the activities of the ‘ayyarun in looting merchants’ goods, burning many houses, and killing people, inflicted considerable loss on the merchants, encouraging the latter to leave Baghdad and do business in other cities. Key words: ‘Abbasid, iqta‘,‘ayyarun, amir al-umara’, Buwayhid.

Mental Health, Cardiovascular Disease and Declining Economies in British Columbia Mining Communities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Janis Shandro

2011-10-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between community-level exposure to changes in economic conditions and the incidence and prevalence of mental disorders and cardiovascular disease in 29 resource-based communities (with a focus on mining communities in British Columbia (BC during a period of time marked by an economic downturn (1991–2002 The investigation relied on Labour Force Survey (LFS and Statistics Canada Census data, and health records from the British Columbia Ministry of Health (MoH. Age and sex adjusted prevalence and incidence rates were calculated for each community from 1991 to 2002 and the development of an economic change indicator defined using Census data and industry/government documents allowed for yearly assessment of community-level exposure to economic conditions. The relationship between exposure to economic change and rates of acute and chronic cardiovascular disease and mental disorders across the 29 study communities was investigated using a generalized linear model (stratified by type of community, and adjusted for the effect of the community. Findings indicate an impact on the prevalence rates for acute cardiovascular disease (CVD during periods of economic decline (rate increased by 13.1 cases per 1,000 population, p < 0.0001 as compared with stable periods and bust conditions (rate increased by 30.1 cases per 1,000 population, p < 0.0001 as compared with stable conditions and mental disorders (rate increased by 13.2 cases per 1,000 population, p = 0.0001 in mining communities during declining economic conditions as compared to steady periods of mining employment. This is not observed in other resource-based communities. The paper concludes by highlighting implications for the mining industry to consider as they begin to recognize and commit to mining community health.

How does youth cigarette use respond to weak economic periods? Implications for the current economic crisis.

Science.gov (United States)

Arkes, Jeremy

2012-03-01

This paper examines whether youth cigarette use increases during weak economic periods (as do youth alcohol and drug use). The data come from the 1997 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. With repeated measures over the 1997-2006 period, for almost 9,000 individuals, the samples include 30,000+ teenagers (15-19 years) and 30,000+ young adults (20-24 years). Logit models with state and year controls are estimated. The results indicate that teenagers and young adults increase cigarette use when the economy is weaker, implying that the current financial crisis has likely increased youth cigarette use relative to what it would have otherwise been.

ECONOMIC STATUS OF THE RUSSIAN MINORITY IN TAJIKISTAN

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Aijaz A. Bandey

2013-03-01

Full Text Available From the 1980s onwards, there was a sharp economic decline in the entire Soviet Union including Central Asia. People in general were affected due to this economic decline; however, in case of the Slav minority in Central Asia including Tajikistan the outmigration of Russian, which started from the 1980s, affected them more than that of their Central Asian counterparts. After the disintegration of Soviet Union, the condition of the leftovers was further accentuated by the language policy, ethnicisation while recruitment in the public offices, etc. Besides this Tajikistan has been the poorest country in the post Soviet space, which in turn is adding to the economic hardships of the people in general and ethnic Russians of the country in particular.

Is the current decline in malaria burden in sub-Saharan Africa due to a decrease in vector population?

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Rwegoshora Rwehumbiza T

2011-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA, malaria caused by Plasmodium falciparum has historically been a major contributor to morbidity and mortality. Recent reports indicate a pronounced decline in infection and disease rates which are commonly ascribed to large-scale bed net programmes and improved case management. However, the decline has also occurred in areas with limited or no intervention. The present study assessed temporal changes in Anopheline populations in two highly malaria-endemic communities of NE Tanzania during the period 1998-2009. Methods Between 1998 and 2001 (1st period and between 2003 and 2009 (2nd period, mosquitoes were collected weekly in 50 households using CDC light traps. Data on rainfall were obtained from the nearby climate station and were used to analyze the association between monthly rainfall and malaria mosquito populations. Results The average number of Anopheles gambiae and Anopheles funestus per trap decreased by 76.8% and 55.3%, respectively over the 1st period, and by 99.7% and 99.8% over the 2nd period. During the last year of sampling (2009, the use of 2368 traps produced a total of only 14 Anopheline mosquitoes. With the exception of the decline in An. gambiae during the 1st period, the results did not reveal any statistical association between mean trend in monthly rainfall and declining malaria vector populations. Conclusion A longitudinal decline in the density of malaria mosquito vectors was seen during both study periods despite the absence of organized vector control. Part of the decline could be associated with changes in the pattern of monthly rainfall, but other factors may also contribute to the dramatic downward trend. A similar decline in malaria vector densities could contribute to the decrease in levels of malaria infection reported from many parts of SSA.

Demographic transition in sub-Saharan Africa: how big will the economic dividend be?

Science.gov (United States)

Eastwood, Robert; Lipton, Michael

2011-03-01

In mid-demographic-transition, many Asian countries enjoyed a large demographic 'dividend': extra economic growth owing to falling dependant/workforce ratios, or slower natural increase, or both. We estimate the dividend, 1985-2025, in sub-Saharan Africa and its populous countries. Dependency and natural increase peaked around 1985, 20 years after Asia. The UN projects an acceleration of the subsequent slow falls but disregards slowish declines in young-age mortality and thus, we argue, overestimates future fertility decline. Even if one accepts their projection, arithmetical and econometric evidence suggests an annual, if not total, dividend well below Asia's. The dividend arises more from falling dependency than reduced natural increase, and could be increased by accelerating the fertility decline (e.g., by reducing young-age mortality) or by employing a larger workforce productively. Any dividend from transition apart, low saving in much of Africa (unlike Asia) means that, given likely natural increase, current consumption per person is unsustainable because it depletes capital per person.

Gains by women reversed in economic downturn.

Science.gov (United States)

1999-01-01

The impact of globalization on women was discussed by the Women in Development Section of the Social Development Division of the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP). Feminization of work in much of the Asian region occurred in the context of overall economic growth in the 1980s and the first half of the 1990s. However, the recent economic crisis has led to a downturn in the positive aspects of this change in women's position, although gender gaps will be reduced through the worsening conditions of male workers. The current deflationary adjustment policies of reducing government expenditures will adversely affect women in the workplace and the household. Since women have been forced to earn additional income outside the home, the girl-children are expected to perform household and child care duties that would otherwise be performed by their mothers. Incidence of child labor and dropout rates among girls has increased. Many social and cultural norms also allow cuts in the food supply for women and girl-children when household per-capita access to food declines. These circumstances invite domestic violence against women. Hence, institutions such as ESCAP should assume a more active advocacy role with the governments as they confront the economic crisis and its repercussions.

Population growth and the decline of natural Southern yellow pine forests

Science.gov (United States)

David B. South; Edward R. Buckner

2004-01-01

Population growth has created social and economic pressures that affect the sustainability of naturally regenerated southern yellow pine forests. Major causes of this decline include (1) a shift in public attitudes regarding woods burning (from one favoring it to one that favors fire suppression) and (2) an increase in land values (especially near urban centers). The...

Decline in girth increment in forest stands damaged by smoke exhalation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vins, B; Parez, J

1963-01-01

A survey of the effects of air pollution on tree growth was carried out in several regions of Czechoslovakia. It was found that in areas of air pollution tree growth rate (as deduced from annual ring study) declined by as much as 90% from control areas. An economic evolution of air-pollution-related losses was carried out.

Forest declines: Some perspectives on linking processes and patterns

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McLaughlin, S.B.

1992-01-01

The regional decline in vigor of some species of forest trees has become an important component in the ecological, aesthetic, and economic criteria by which the costs of anthropogenic pollution are weighed. Because declines are often complex and virtually never without significant natural environmental modifiers, determining the role of specific anthropogenic stresses in initiating or enhancing the rate and direction of change in forest condition represents a significant research challenge. Separation of primary mechanisms that point to principal causes from secondary responses that result from internal feedbacks and the milieu of modifying agents is a critical issue in diagnosing forest decline. Air pollutant stress may have its most significant effects on forest processes by accelerating or amplifying natural stresses. Studies of changes in forest metabolic processes have played an important role in evaluating the role of air pollution in four regional forest declines that are the focus of this paper. The decline of ponderosa pine in the San Bernardino Mountains of California, Norway spruce and silver fir in Europe, loblolly and shortleaf pine in the Southeastern United States, and red spruce in the Eastern Appalachian Mountains provide case studies in which physiological responses to air pollutants under field and laboratory conditions have provided important analytical tools for assessing likely causes. These tools are most effective when both mechanistic explanations and larger scale patterns of response are evaluated in an iterative feedback loop that examines plausible mechanisms and patterns of response at levels ranging from cell membranes to plant populations

Turnaround and Sustainability in Economic Crisis: The Case of NEXT PLC

OpenAIRE

Zhang, Biyan

2013-01-01

Purpose- against a background of continued weak economic conditions and with many firms experiencing declining financial performance, this paper presents a synthesis of the business turnaround literature and combines with analysis case –NEXT plc. It purposes to discus the turnaround strategies can keep the declining firm sustainability recovery, during the economic cycle. \\ud \\ud Design/methodology/approach- the turnaround strategy for sustainability recovery are examined by a case study of N...

Water Resources by 2100 in Mountains with Declining Glaciers

Science.gov (United States)

Beniston, M.

2015-12-01

Future shifts in temperature and precipitation patterns, and changes in the behavior of snow and ice - and possibly the quasi-disappearance of glaciers - in many mountain regions will change the quantity, seasonality, and possibly also the quality of water originating in mountains and uplands. As a result, changing water availability will affect both upland and populated lowland areas. Economic sectors such as agriculture, tourism or hydropower may enter into rivalries if water is no longer available in sufficient quantities or at the right time of the year. The challenge is thus to estimate as accurately as possible future changes in order to prepare the way for appropriate adaptation strategies and improved water governance. The European ACQWA project, coordinated by the author, aimed to assess the vulnerability of water resources in mountain regions such as the European Alps, the Central Chilean Andes, and the mountains of Central Asia (Kyrgyzstan) where declining snow and ice are likely to strongly affect hydrological regimes in a warmer climate. Based on RCM (Regional Climate Model) simulations, a suite of cryosphere, biosphere and economic models were then used to quantify the environmental, economic and social impacts of changing water resources in order to assess how robust current water governance strategies are and what adaptations may be needed to alleviate the most negative impacts of climate change on water resources and water use. Hydrological systems will respond in quantity and seasonality to changing precipitation patterns and to the timing of snow-melt in the studied mountain regions, with a greater risk of flooding during the spring and droughts in summer and fall. The direct and indirect impacts of a warming climate will affect key economic sectors such as tourism, hydropower, agriculture and the insurance industry that will be confronted to more frequent natural disasters. The results from the ACQWA project suggest that there is a need for a

Recent economic downturn and pulpwood markets

Science.gov (United States)

Peter J. Ince

2002-01-01

The U.S. economy entered a period of slow growth in 2000, tilting toward economic recession in 2001, the first broad economic downturn in a decade. This recent downturn was associated with a recession in U.S. industrial output from 2000 through 2001. U.S. paper and paperboard production declined from 1999 to 2001, with total production 8% lower in 2001 than the...

Economic stability and health status: evidence from East Asia before and after the 1990s economic crisis.

Science.gov (United States)

Hopkins, Sandra

2006-02-01

The East Asian economies of Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand suffered declines in their economic growth rates in 1997. The Indonesian and Thai government followed the World Bank prescription for adjustment, which included a cut-back in government spending at a time when there were significant job losses. Malaysia chose its own path to adjustment. Evidence presented in this paper shows that although the declines were short-lived that there was an impact on the health status measured by mortality rates for the populations of Indonesia and Thailand. There was little apparent impact on the health status of Malaysians. The lessons for other developing economies include the importance of social safety nets and the maintenance of government expenditure in minimising the impact of economic shocks on health.

Nowhere to run, or hide. Current economic downturn may exacerbate hospitals' weakness with buildings, technology costs, reimbursements.

Science.gov (United States)

Becker, Cinda

2008-04-21

As the economy moves through what many believe is a recession, healthcare won't be immune, experts say. "I don't know much in the economy that is recession-proof, and I don't think healthcare is either," says W. David Bradford, left, a Medical University of South Carolina economics professor. Because of the current economic conditions, some systems are rethinking where they put their money.

Alzheimer's disease and age-related memory decline (preclinical).

Science.gov (United States)

Terry, Alvin V; Callahan, Patrick M; Hall, Brandon; Webster, Scott J

2011-08-01

An unfortunate result of the rapid rise in geriatric populations worldwide is the increasing prevalence of age-related cognitive disorders such as Alzheimer's disease (AD). AD is a devastating neurodegenerative illness that is characterized by a profound impairment of cognitive function, marked physical disability, and an enormous economic burden on the afflicted individual, caregivers, and society in general. The rise in elderly populations is also resulting in an increase in individuals with related (potentially treatable) conditions such as "Mild Cognitive Impairment" (MCI) which is characterized by a less severe (but abnormal) level of cognitive impairment and a high-risk for developing dementia. Even in the absence of a diagnosable disorder of cognition (e.g., AD and MCI), the perception of increased forgetfulness and declining mental function is a clear source of apprehension in the elderly. This is a valid concern given that even a modest impairment of cognitive function is likely to be associated with significant disability in a rapidly evolving, technology-based society. Unfortunately, the currently available therapies designed to improve cognition (i.e., for AD and other forms of dementia) are limited by modest efficacy and adverse side effects, and their effects on cognitive function are not sustained over time. Accordingly, it is incumbent on the scientific community to develop safer and more effective therapies that improve and/or sustain cognitive function in the elderly allowing them to remain mentally active and productive for as long as possible. As diagnostic criteria for memory disorders evolve, the demand for pro-cognitive therapeutic agents is likely to surpass AD and dementia to include MCI and potentially even less severe forms of memory decline. The purpose of this review is to provide an overview of the contemporary therapeutic targets and preclinical pharmacologic approaches (with representative drug examples) designed to enhance memory

Economic Theory, Economic Reality And Economic Policy

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Dmitry Evgenievich Sorokin

2015-03-01

Full Text Available This paper analyzes the opposition between the «liberals» and «statists» in the Russian political and economic thought. It demonstrates that the economic liberalization is an absolute prerequisite for the transition to sustainable socio-economic development. Such development must rely on investment activities of the state, which in the current circumstances is a necessary but not sufficient measure for reversing the negative trends. The negative developments can be prevented only through implementation, along with the institutional changes in the economic area that form a strata of economically independent entrepreneurs-innovators, of no less profound transformation in political institutions aimed at democratization of public life

Economic benefits of high value medicinal plants to Pakistani communities: an analysis of current practice and potential.

Science.gov (United States)

Sher, Hassan; Aldosari, Ali; Ali, Ahmad; de Boer, Hugo J

2014-10-10

Poverty is pervasive in the Swat Valley, Pakistan. Most of the people survive by farming small landholdings. Many earn additional income by collecting and selling plant material for use in herbal medicine. This material is collected from wild populations but the people involved have little appreciation of the potential value of the plant material they collect and the long term impact their collecting has on local plant populations. In 2012, existing practices in collecting and trading high value minor crops from Swat District, Pakistan, were analyzed. The focus of the study was on the collection pattern of medicinal plants as an economic activity within Swat District and the likely destinations of these products in national or international markets. Local collectors/farmers and dealers were surveyed about their collection efforts, quantities collected, prices received, and resulting incomes. Herbal markets in major cities of Pakistan were surveyed for current market trends, domestic sources of supply, imports and exports of herbal material, price patterns, and market product-quality requirements. It was observed that wild collection is almost the only source of medicinal plant raw material in the country, with virtually no cultivation. Gathering is mostly done by women and children of nomadic Middle Hill tribes who earn supplementary income through this activity, with the plants then brought into the market by collectors who are usually local farmers. The individuals involved in gathering and collecting are largely untrained regarding the pre-harvest and post-harvest treatment of collected material. Most of the collected material is sold to local middlemen. After that, the trade pattern is complex and heterogeneous, involving many players. Pakistan exports of high value plants generate over US$10.5 million annually in 2012, with a substantial percentage of the supply coming from Swat District, but its market share has been declining. Reasons for the decline were

MINORITATEA GERMANĂ DIN ROMÂNIA ÎNTRE DECLIN DEMOGRAPHIC ŞI ADAPTARE

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WILFRIED SCHREIBER

2014-11-01

Full Text Available The German minority in Romania between demographic decline and adaptation. As most of the other national minorities in Romania, the German population declined by 40% between 2002 and 2011. The highest decreasing levels were registered in the counties and settlements where Germans had been colonized throughout the centuries, especially in Transylvania. Growth was only registered in Ilfov County due to the economic attractiveness. In 2011 there were still 11 towns with more than 500 German inhabitants and 14 rural municipalities with more than 100 Germans. The demographic setback determined adaptation measures, especially within the Democratic Forum of the Germans in Romania and the Evangelical Lutheran Church.

Is colonialism history? The declining impact of colonial legacies on African institutional and economic development : The declining impact of colonial legacies on African institutional and economic development

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Maseland, Robbert

2018-01-01

This paper investigates the claim that colonial history has left an enduring imprint on Africa's institutional and economic development. The literature following Acemoglu, Johnson and Robinson (2001) and Sokoloff and Engerman (2000) maintains that different types of colonialism affected the

On the pace of fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa

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David Shapiro

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Background: This descriptive finding examines the comparative pace of fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa, relative to Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Northern Africa. Objective: We seek to determine if fertility decline has been slower in sub-Saharan Africa than elsewhere in the developing world. Methods: United Nations 2017 estimates of national fertility are used in assessing the comparative pace of fertility decline, and the four regions are compared in terms of how far they are into their fertility transition. Results: The data shows clearly that fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa, still at a comparatively early stage, has been considerably slower than the earlier declines in Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Northern Africa at comparable stages of the transition, and displays less within-region heterogeneity than the transitions in these other regions. Conclusions: The slower pace of fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa, in conjunction with the high current fertility levels in the region, means that in the absence of policies seeking to accelerate fertility decline, sub-Saharan Africa will continue to experience rapid population growth that in turn will constrain its development. Contribution: Presentation of data in a novel way (Figures 2‒4, and associated calculations unambiguously demonstrates the slow pace of fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa compared with other regions of the world.

Terminal decline in well-being: The role of social orientation.

Science.gov (United States)

Gerstorf, Denis; Hoppmann, Christiane A; Löckenhoff, Corinna E; Infurna, Frank J; Schupp, Jürgen; Wagner, Gert G; Ram, Nilam

2016-03-01

Well-being development at the end of life is often characterized by steep deteriorations, but individual differences in these terminal declines are substantial and not yet well understood. This study moved beyond typical consideration of health predictors and explored the role of social orientation and engagement. To do so, we used social variables at the behavioral level (self-ratings of social participation) and the motivational level (valuing social and family goals), assessed 2 to 4 years before death. We applied single- and multiphase growth models to up to 27-year annual longitudinal data from 2,910 now deceased participants of the nation-wide German Socio-Economic Panel Study (Mage at death = 74 years; SD = 14; 48% women). Results revealed that leading a socially active life and prioritizing social goals in late life were independently associated with higher late-life well-being, less pronounced late-life decline, and a later onset of terminal decline. Significant interaction effects suggested that the combination of (reduced) social participation and (lowered) social goals magnifies the effects of each other. Findings also indicated that less decline in social participation was associated with less severe rates and a later onset of well-being decline. We found little evidence that valuing family goals is associated with late-life trajectories of well-being. Associations were independent of key correlates of well-being and mortality, including age at death, gender, education, disability, hospital stays, and goals in other life domains. We discuss possible pathways by which maintaining social orientation into late life may help mitigate terminal decline in well-being. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Too costly to matter: Economics of nuclear power for Saudi Arabia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahmad, Ali; Ramana, M.V.

2014-01-01

Saudi Arabia has ambitious plans for nuclear power. Given this context, this paper examines the economics of nuclear power and compares it to two other sources of electricity, natural gas and solar energy. It calculates the costs of electricity generation, water desalination and the opportunity cost associated with forgone oil and gas revenues. A sensitivity analysis is included to account for variations in important parameters within the comparative cost analysis. Our results suggest that for a large range of parameters, the economics of nuclear power are not favorable in comparison with natural gas, even if the currently low domestic natural gas prices in Saudi Arabia were to rise substantially. Further, electricity from solar plants has the potential to be cheaper than nuclear power within the next decade if the rapid decline in solar energy costs in the last decade continue, i.e., before the first planned nuclear power plant would be completed. However, unless the price of oil drops substantially below current values, it would be more economically optimal to export the oil than using it for generating electricity. - Highlights: • Future projections show nuclear power is not cost effective for Saudi Arabia. • A combination of solar and natural gas could largely meet future electricity demand. • There are multiple, non-economic, motivations for Saudi Arabia's nuclear program. • Saudi Arabia would economically benefit by not using oil for electricity generation

The Role of Negotiations in the Equation "Declining School Enrollment=Layoffs": A Union Perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Nassau, Stephen M.

1978-01-01

Discusses possible collective bargaining provisions for dealing with the economic impact of declining public school enrollments, with particular attention to considerations involving the reduction in force of teachers. Presents the National Education Association's proposed contract language governing reduction in force procedures. (JG)

Hedging Financial Risks in the Economic Practices of Small Business: Current Imperatives

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Kolomiyets Ganna M.

2017-04-01

Full Text Available The article considers the need to update approaches to hedging the financial risks of small businesses. Reducing the probability of financial costs and losses is of continuing relevance. It appears to be especially critical for small businesses. Small business plays a significant role in the country’s economic system as creator of jobs and as a producer of goods and services that adapts quickly to changing consumer requirements. However, its access to credit resources has certain limitations. The instability of the economic environment by individual factors can affect small businesses not less, and sometimes even more than large and medium-sized businesses. Design of the risk-management in terms of small business needs to be updated. In the current context, there is a need in re-evaluating that the efficient financial risk management can only be carried out in a complex of all the enterprise’s risks, with an increase in the planning horizon and the identification of obstacles to achieving the objective set.

Long-term decline of radiocaesium in Fennoscandian reindeer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Skuterud, L.; Aahman, B.; Solatie, D.; Gaare, E.

2009-06-01

The NKS-B project REIN was established to synthesize the available information on contamination levels and effective half-times for 137Cs in reindeer in Finland, Sweden and Norway. Several studies of radiocaesium contamination in reindeer have been carried out in the Nordic countries over the last 50 years. However, the current slow decline in concentrations, which will maintain the consequences of the Chernobyl deposition for Swedish and Norwegian reindeer husbandry for at least another 10-20 years, have not previously been observed nor predicted. In the Chernobyl affected areas 137Cs concentrations in reindeer initially declined by effective half-times of 3-4 years, whereas the current decline appears to be mainly governed by the nuclide's physical half-life (30 years). The review of effective half-times of 137Cs in reindeer across Fennoscandia suggests that concentrations declined more rapidly in the northernmost areas. The reason(-s) remains unclear, and demonstrates the need for more long-term sampling of the various components of reindeer's diet. Such sampling should aim at covering climatically different areas, as climate may influence transfer of radiocaesium to reindeer via lichen growth and weathering rates, composition of plant communities and lichen availability, as well as soil-to-plant radiocaesium uptake. The lack of long-term data on radiocaesium in natural vegetation in the Nordic countries is one of the main limitations for the development of mechanistic models for radiocaesium in reindeer, and for further elucidation of the observed long-term trends in 137Cs concentrations in reindeer. Currently our understanding of the long-term trends observed in various areas is not good enough to predict how future radiocaesium deposition will behave. The high transfer of nuclides to reindeer, the geographical extension of reindeer herding and the special position of the Sami population in Finland, Sweden and Norway, demonstrates the need for maintaining

Long-term decline of radiocaesium in Fennoscandian reindeer

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Skuterud, L. (Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority, Norwegian Reindeer Husbandry Administration (Norway)); AAhman, B. (Swedish Univ. of Agricultural Sciences (Sweden)); Solatie, D. (STUK-Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority (Finland)); Gaare, E. (Norwegian Institute for Nature Researc (Norway))

2009-06-15

The NKS-B project REIN was established to synthesize the available information on contamination levels and effective half-times for 137Cs in reindeer in Finland, Sweden and Norway. Several studies of radiocaesium contamination in reindeer have been carried out in the Nordic countries over the last 50 years. However, the current slow decline in concentrations, which will maintain the consequences of the Chernobyl deposition for Swedish and Norwegian reindeer husbandry for at least another 10-20 years, have not previously been observed nor predicted. In the Chernobyl affected areas 137Cs concentrations in reindeer initially declined by effective half-times of 3-4 years, whereas the current decline appears to be mainly governed by the nuclide's physical half-life (30 years). The review of effective half-times of 137Cs in reindeer across Fennoscandia suggests that concentrations declined more rapidly in the northernmost areas. The reason(-s) remains unclear, and demonstrates the need for more long-term sampling of the various components of reindeer's diet. Such sampling should aim at covering climatically different areas, as climate may influence transfer of radiocaesium to reindeer via lichen growth and weathering rates, composition of plant communities and lichen availability, as well as soil-to-plant radiocaesium uptake. The lack of long-term data on radiocaesium in natural vegetation in the Nordic countries is one of the main limitations for the development of mechanistic models for radiocaesium in reindeer, and for further elucidation of the observed long-term trends in 137Cs concentrations in reindeer. Currently our understanding of the long-term trends observed in various areas is not good enough to predict how future radiocaesium deposition will behave. The high transfer of nuclides to reindeer, the geographical extension of reindeer herding and the special position of the Sami population in Finland, Sweden and Norway, demonstrates the need for

Factors affecting economic performance of nuclear power projects in the USA and abroad

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Braun, C.

1988-01-01

Trends in nuclear power economics in the USA, as well as in other large power programmes, are reviewed in this paper. The current US coal/nuclear economic situation, the implications for operating cost improvements and the potential for the introduction of new low-cost nuclear units are discussed. The average economic advantage of nuclear over coal plants has been significantly eroded over the last four years, though the rate of decline has recently slowed. Discussion of an average plant's performance indices is always imprecise, given the wide distribution of the costs data. However, several nuclear power plants can be identified whose total generation costs in 1985 were less than coal units' variable costs or total generation expenses. It is concluded that the impact of new, low-cost plants on improving the overall US nuclear/coal economics will require a long time to make itself felt. In the near term the most cost effective methods for improving US nuclear power economics are a reduction in operating expenses and an increase in average plant capacity factors. (author). 9 refs, 9 figs

Decline in Kelp in West Europe and Climate.

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Virginie Raybaud

Full Text Available Kelp ecosystems form widespread underwater forests playing a major role in structuring the biodiversity at a regional scale. Some seaweeds such as Laminaria digitata are also economically important, being exploited for their alginate and iodine content. Although some studies have shown that kelp ecosystems are regressing and that multiple causes are likely to be at the origin of the disappearance of certain populations, the extent to which global climate change may play a role remains speculative. Here we show that many populations of L. digitata along European coasts are on the verge of local extinction due to a climate-caused increase in sea temperature. By modeling the spatial distribution of the seaweed, we evaluate the possible implications of global climate change for the geographical patterns of the species using temperature data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5. Projections of the future range of L. digitata throughout the 21st century show large shifts in the suitable habitat of the kelp and a northward retreat of the southern limit of its current geographic distribution from France to Danish coasts and the southern regions of the United Kingdom. However, these projections depend on the intensity of warming. A medium to high warming is expected to lead to the extirpation of the species as early as the first half of the 21st century and there is high confidence that regional extinction will spread northwards by the end of this century. These changes are likely to cause the decline of species whose life cycle is closely dependent upon L. digitata and lead to the establishment of new ecosystems with lower ecological and economic values.

Environmental protection in East Germany as an economical factor - in connection with energy supply

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weisheimer, M.

1994-01-01

The current environment damages and risks were substantially defused in the recent three years. That was mainly the result of the drastic decline of the Eastern economy. Then there were substitutions of several energies and row materials as well as ecological immediate measures. Transfers and financial aids of the government together with private investments create positive effects on industry and private households. They are concerned with the economic potential, labour market (incl. ABM) and with quality of the location. (orig.) [de

Why has productivity growth declined? Productivity and public investment

OpenAIRE

Alicia H. Munnell

1990-01-01

The decline in United States productivity has been widely identified as one of the major economic problems facing the nation. This concern is understandable; productivity growth is the major determinant of the future standard of living. Economists have gone to great lengths to try to identify the reasons for the slowdown, and David Aschauer recently introduced the notion that the stock of public infrastructure, as well as the stock of private capital, may be a key to explaining changes in out...

Building social and economic capital: the family and medical savings accounts.

Science.gov (United States)

Cherry, Mark J

2012-12-01

Despite the well-documented social, economic, and adaptive advantages for young children, adolescents, and adults, the traditional family in the West is in decline. A growing percentage of men and women choose not to be bound by the traditional moral and social expectations of marriage and family life. Adults are much more likely than in the past to live as sexually active singles, with a concomitant increase in forms of social isolation as well as in the number of children born outside of marriage. These social shifts are also connected to public policies that provide incentives for individuals to exit the family, leaving behind its social, capital, and economic resources. The individualistic character of the social-democratic egalitarian ideology that underlies the current dominant approaches to health care financing in Western Europe and much of North America, for example, is associated with a decline in family stability. Welfare entitlements, including state-based health care, have made it easier to exit the family, undermining the centrality of the family's core human relationships. This essay argues for the importance of recognizing the cardinal role and reality of the family and for the importance of family-based health care savings accounts for preserving family integrity, while also providing for sustainable long-term health care reform.

12 CFR 357.1 - Economically depressed regions.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

...) High unemployment rates; (ii) Significant declines in non-farm employment; (iii) High delinquency rates... regarding their geographic market area, as well as information on whether that market is “economically...

Baseline Cerebral Small Vessel Disease Is Not Associated with Gait Decline After Five Years

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Van Der Holst, Helena M.; Van Uden, Ingeborg W.M.; de Laat, Karlijn F.; Van Leijsen, Esther M.C.; van Norden, Anouk G.W.; Norris, David G.; Van DIjk, Ewoud J.; Tuladhar, Anil M.; de Leeuw, Frank-Erik

2017-01-01

Background Cerebral small vessel disease (SVD) is cross-sectionally associated with gait disturbances, however, the relation between baseline SVD and gait decline over time is uncertain. Furthermore, diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) studies on gait decline are currently lacking. Objective To

Economic security of modern Russia: the current state and prospects

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Karanina Elena

2018-01-01

Full Text Available In the conditions of instability of the world economy and the introduction of sanctions against Russia by a number of countries, the problem of ensuring national economic security has become particularly relevant. This topic also has a high scientific, practical and social significance, as it allows to identify possible gaps in the economic security of modern Russia and timely develop mechanisms to eliminate them to protect the national interests of the state. The purpose of this article is to determine the state and prospects of improving the economic security of modern Russia. This can be achieved by solving the following tasks: review of existing methods to evaluate the economic security of country, conduct a SWOT analysis of economic security of modern Russia, the development of suggestions for its improvement. This research analyzes various aspects of the economic security of modern Russia. As a result, the author developed an integrated method to ensuring the economic security of the country, as well as a matrix of economic security within this method. The way of increase of economic security of modern Russia is offered. Thus, to overcome the threats for the economic security of modern Russia, it is necessary to implement the recommendations developed by the authors, including the establishment of their own production and the construction of an innovatively oriented model of the economy. This will ensure the economic security of modern Russia and its stable development in the future.

Decline of the world's saline lakes

Science.gov (United States)

Wurtsbaugh, Wayne A.; Miller, Craig; Null, Sarah E.; Derose, R. Justin; Wilcock, Peter; Hahnenberger, Maura; Howe, Frank; Moore, Johnnie

2017-11-01

Many of the world's saline lakes are shrinking at alarming rates, reducing waterbird habitat and economic benefits while threatening human health. Saline lakes are long-term basin-wide integrators of climatic conditions that shrink and grow with natural climatic variation. In contrast, water withdrawals for human use exert a sustained reduction in lake inflows and levels. Quantifying the relative contributions of natural variability and human impacts to lake inflows is needed to preserve these lakes. With a credible water balance, causes of lake decline from water diversions or climate variability can be identified and the inflow needed to maintain lake health can be defined. Without a water balance, natural variability can be an excuse for inaction. Here we describe the decline of several of the world's large saline lakes and use a water balance for Great Salt Lake (USA) to demonstrate that consumptive water use rather than long-term climate change has greatly reduced its size. The inflow needed to maintain bird habitat, support lake-related industries and prevent dust storms that threaten human health and agriculture can be identified and provides the information to evaluate the difficult tradeoffs between direct benefits of consumptive water use and ecosystem services provided by saline lakes.

ECOLOGY-ECONOMICAL ASSESSMENT OF NEW RECLAMATION METHOD FOR CURRENTLY WORKING TECHNOGENIC MASSIFS

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Alexey Strizhenok

2017-01-01

Full Text Available One of the most relevant problems of the mining industry is the need to reduce the negative impact of technogenic massifs formed by wastes of extraction and processing of mineral raw materials. This problem has a significant meaning for currently used massifs, because traditional ways of reclamation are not suitable for them. The article describes the results of a scientific study on the development of the most efficient reclamation method for currently used technogenic massifs. Described in detail the main results of the field observations, methods and equipment of laboratory experiments conducted to determine agro-chemical properties of the soil and optimal composition of binder agent. The article also provides ecological and economic assessment of the proposed method of reclamation. The study was conducted on the example of the real technogenic massif, formed by wastes of phosphorus ore processing.

The Current Status of the Economic Security of Poltava Region

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Bondarevska Olha M.

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The status of economic security of Poltava region in 2012–2016 was analyzed, the analysis was conducted using the developed methodology for assessing economic security of region, which is based on the joint use of indicative and functional methods. In order to assess the status of economic security of region, a system of indicators, divided by economic security components, has been formed using functional approach. The information-analytical provision of assessment has been formed using statistical information on the socio-economic development of the region. The influence of factors of destabilizing and destimulative nature on the status of economic security of the region has been researched. It has been concluded that the economic security of Poltava region is unsatisfactory, despite the existence of some positive tendencies, which at present are not sustainable.

The impact of retirement on age related cognitive decline - a systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Meng, Annette; Nexø, Mette Andersen; Borg, Vilhelm

2017-07-21

Knowledge on factors affecting the rate of cognitive decline and how to maintain cognitive functioning in old age becomes increasingly relevant. The purpose of the current study was to systematically review the evidence for the impact of retirement on cognitive functioning and on age related cognitive decline. We conducted a systematic literature review, following the principles of the PRISMA statement, of longitudinal studies on the association between retirement and cognition. Only seven studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. We found weak evidence that retirement accelerates the rate of cognitive decline in crystallised abilities, but only for individuals retiring from jobs high in complexity with people. The evidence of the impact of retirement on the rate of decline in fluid cognitive abilities is conflicting. The review revealed a major knowledge gap in regards to the impact of retirement on cognitive decline. More knowledge on the association between retirement and age related cognitive decline as well as knowledge on the mechanisms behind these associations is needed.

Female Progress and Discrimination. An Economic Perspective

OpenAIRE

Sandra E. Black

2005-01-01

In the last 20 years, women’s economic progress has been staggering; this progress is particularly startling given that this has also been a period of marked increases in income inequality overall, declining relative wages of blacks, and declining real wages of low-skilled workers. Recent work has proposed a number of possible explanations for the progress of women, including changing social norms (in part facilitated by technological/pharmaceutical advances), increasing skill acquisition, ch...

The fertility decline in Kenya.

Science.gov (United States)

Robinson, W C; Harbison, S F

1995-01-01

In Sub-Saharan Africa Kenya is a prime example of a country experiencing a rapid decline in fertility and greater contraceptive prevalence. These changes have occurred since 1980 when fertility was high at 8.0 children per woman. In 1993 the total fertility rate (TFR) was 5.4, and the growth rate declined to about 2.0%. This transition is swifter than any country in contemporary Asia or historical Europe. The likely projection for Kenya is attainment of replacement level fertility during the 2020s and a leveling of population at about 100 million persons. Fertility has declined the most in urban areas and central and eastern regions. Bongaarts' proximate determinants (TFR, total marital fertility rate, total natural marital fertility rate, and total fecundity) are reduced to the proportion of currently married women using contraception, the proportion in lactational nonfecund status, and the proportion currently married. Actual fertility change is accounted for by total fertility change of 3.0 children. Lactational infecundability accounts for 0.5 potential births, and changes in marital fertility account for 1.0 reduced births per woman. About 70% of fertility reduction is accounted for by contraception and abortion. During 1977-78 80% of fertility control was due to lactational nonfecundity, 10% to nonmarriage, and 10% to contraception. In 1993 lactational nonfecundity accounted for 50% of the reduction, nonmarriage for 20%, and abortion about 30%. Future fertility is expected to be dependent on contraceptive prevalence. Kenya has experienced the Coale paradigm of preconditions necessary for demographic transition (willing, ready, and able). High fertility in Africa is not intractable. Creating the change in attitudes that leads to readiness is linked to education, health, and exposure to modernizing media and urban lifestyles. The public sector family planning program in Kenya has created the opportunity for access and availability of contraception. The key

USA between the Greatest Economic Crisis and Current Economic Crisis

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Adina Liana Camarda

2009-10-01

Full Text Available American business system might be defined trough its decentralized character, a capitalist one, based on private property and free will. Federalauthorities’ intercession to economy exhibits throughout budgetary and monetary policies strategy. Meantime federal budget gets a constituent referring toinvestment in cereals. American economic legislation acknowledges government involvement in business practice control, American Government acting aseconomical increase supervisor.

Impact of the economic recession on companion animal relinquishment, adoption, and euthanasia: a Chicago animal shelter's experience.

Science.gov (United States)

Weng, Hsin-Yi; Hart, Lynette A

2012-01-01

This study investigated how the current economic recession (since December 2007) has affected dog and cat relinquishment, adoption, and euthanasia at the Anti-Cruelty Society animal shelter in Chicago, Illinois. The study compared temporal patterns of the investigated statistics before (2000-2007) the start of the current recession with the patterns after the start of the recession (2008-2010). The results showed that once the guardianship (ownership) of a nonhuman animal had been established, the recession did not greatly affect the owner's decision on relinquishment-except for the relinquishment of senior dogs, which may be associated with increased costs of care. However, an unfavorable economic environment may have reduced adoption of animals. The consequences of a decline in adoptions might be reflected in an increase in the proportion or number of sheltered animals euthanized. This study demonstrated how monitoring changes in temporal patterns in these shelter statistics can help guide animal shelters to better prepare for the current recession.

Calculating economy-wide energy intensity decline rate: The role of sectoral output and energy shares

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baksi, Soham; Green, Chris

2007-01-01

We specify formulas for computing the rate of decline in economy-wide energy intensity by aggregating its two determinants-technical efficiency improvements in the various sectors of the economy, and shifts in economic activity among these sectors. The formulas incorporate the interdependence between sectoral shares, and establish a one-to-one relation between sectoral output and energy shares. This helps to eliminate future energy intensity decline scenarios which involve implausible values of either sectoral share. An illustrative application of the formulas is provided, using within-sector efficiency improvement estimates suggested by Lightfoot-Green and Harvey

Regional economic impacts of current and proposed management alternatives for Charles M. Russell National Wildlife Refuge

Science.gov (United States)

Koontz, Lynne; Sexton, Natalie; Ishizaki, Asuka; Ritten, John

2013-01-01

The National Wildlife Refuge System Improvement Act of 1997 requires all units of the National Wildlife Refuge System to be managed under a Comprehensive Conservation Plan (CCP). The CCP must describe the desired future conditions of a refuge and provide long-range guidance and management direction to achieve refuge purposes. Charles M. Russell (CMR) National Wildlife Refuge, located in north-central Montana, is in the process of developing a range of management goals, objectives, and strategies for the CCP. The CCP for the Refuge must contain an analysis of expected effects associated with current and proposed refuge-management strategies. For refuge CCP planning, an economic analysis provides a means of estimating how current management (No Action Alternative) and proposed management activities (Alternatives) affect the local economy. This type of analysis provides two critical pieces of information: (1) it illustrates a refuge’s contribution to the local community; and (2) it can help in determining whether economic effects are or are not a real concern in choosing among management alternatives. It is important to note that the economic value of a refuge encompasses more than just the impacts on the regional economy. Refuges also provide substantial nonmarket values (values for items not exchanged in established markets) such as maintaining endangered species, preserving wetlands, educating future generations, and adding stability to the ecosystem (Carver and Caudill, 2007). However, quantifying these types of nonmarket values is beyond the scope of this study. This report first presents a description of the local community and economy near the Refuge. Next, the methods used to conduct a regional economic impact analysis are described. An analysis of the final CCP management strategies that could affect stakeholders and residents and the local economy is then presented. The refuge management activities of economic concern in this analysis are:

Decline in the risk of hepatitis A virus infection in China, a country with booming economy and changing lifestyles.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Zhi-Yu; Wang, Xuan-Yi; Liu, Chang-Qing; Li, Yang-Ting; Zhuang, Fang-Chen

2008-10-01

The objective of the study was to identify the protective factors for the rapid decline in the risk of hepatitis A virus (HAV) infection in China between 1990 and 2006. Results of serological follow-up and data on annual hepatitis A incidence were analysed and correlated with economic growth and HAV vaccine output during the same period. In conclusion, both HAV vaccination and changing lifestyles associated with the booming economy contributed to the rapid risk decline. Changing lifestyles played a major role in the decline especially in the areas with booming economy.

The Economic Discourse of the Current Reform Aimed at Business Optimization in Ukraine

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Purdenko Olena A.

2016-05-01

Full Text Available The aim of the article is to study the strengths and weaknesses of the current reforms and provide appropriate recommendations and proposals to improve the regulatory and economic business environment. The article analyzes the introduced reforms in the aspect of the regulatory field and the active current system of taxation with the detailing of the type and content of the basic implemented measures. There have been justified the advantages and disadvantages of the introduced system of taxation with respect to the main budget forming taxes, such as the enterprise income taxes, value added tax, individual income tax considering changes in the administering of unified social tax (UST and war tax, excise duty. On the basis of the results of the study it has been found that the introduced reforms only partially improved the tax administration system and in no way reduced the announced tax burden, the time spending of business for preparing the current report was not significantly reduced.

Economic evaluations of personalized medicine: existing challenges and current developments

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Shabaruddin FH

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Fatiha H Shabaruddin,1 Nigel D Fleeman,2 Katherine Payne3 1Department of Pharmacy, University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia; 2Liverpool Reviews and Implementation Group (LRiG, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK; 3Institute of Population Health, The University of Manchester, Manchester, UK Abstract: Personalized medicine, with the aim of safely, effectively, and cost-effectively targeting treatment to a prespecified patient population, has always been a long-time goal within health care. It is often argued that personalizing treatment will inevitably improve clinical outcomes for patients and help achieve more effective use of health care resources. Demand is increasing for demonstrable evidence of clinical and cost-effectiveness to support the use of personalized medicine in health care. This paper begins with an overview of the existing challenges in conducting economic evaluations of genetics- and genomics-targeted technologies, as an example of personalized medicine. Our paper illustrates the complexity of the challenges faced by these technologies by highlighting the variations in the issues faced by diagnostic tests for somatic variations, generally referring to genetic variation in a tumor, and germline variations, generally referring to inherited genetic variation in enzymes involved in drug metabolic pathways. These tests are typically aimed at stratifying patient populations into subgroups on the basis of clinical effectiveness (response or safety (avoidance of adverse events. The paper summarizes the data requirements for economic evaluations of genetics and genomics-based technologies while outlining that the main challenges relating to data requirements revolve around the availability and quality of existing data. We conclude by discussing current developments aimed to address the challenges of assessing the cost-effectiveness of genetics and genomics-based technologies, which revolve around two central issues that are

Social-economical decision making in current and remitted major depression.

Science.gov (United States)

Pulcu, E; Thomas, E J; Trotter, P D; McFarquhar, M; Juhasz, G; Sahakian, B J; Deakin, J F W; Anderson, I M; Zahn, R; Elliott, R

2015-04-01

Prosocial emotions related to self-blame are important in guiding human altruistic decisions. These emotions are elevated in major depressive disorder (MDD), such that MDD has been associated with guilt-driven pathological hyper-altruism. However, the impact of such emotional impairments in MDD on different types of social decision-making is unknown. In order to address this issue, we investigated different kinds of altruistic behaviour (interpersonal cooperation and fund allocation, altruistic punishment and charitable donation) in 33 healthy subjects, 35 patients in full remission (unmedicated) and 24 currently depressed patients (11 on medication) using behavioural-economical paradigms. We show a significant main effect of clinical status on altruistic decisions (p = 0.04) and a significant interaction between clinical status and type of altruistic decisions (p = 0.03). More specifically, symptomatic patients defected significantly more in the Prisoner's Dilemma game (p guilt elicited by receiving unfair financial offers in the Ultimatum Game (p guilt-driven pathological hyper-altruism hypothesis in depression. There were also differences in both current and remitted patients in the relationship between altruistic behaviour and pathological self-blaming, suggesting an important role for these emotions in moral and social decision-making abnormalities in depression.

Is the current decline in malaria burden in sub-Saharan Africa due to a decrease in vector population?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Meyrowitsch, Dan Wolf; Pedersen, Erling Møller; Alifrangis, Michael

2011-01-01

) and between 2003 and 2009 (2nd period), mosquitoes were collected weekly in 50 households using CDC light traps. Data on rainfall were obtained from the nearby climate station and was used to analyze the association between monthly rainfall and malaria mosquito populations. RESULTS: The average number...... of Anopheles gambiae and Anopheles funestus per trap decreased by 76.8% and 55.3%, respectively over the 1st period, and by 99.7% and 99.8% over the 2nd period. During the last year of sampling (2009), the use of 2368 traps produced a total of only 14 Anopheline mosquitoes. With the exception of the decline...... in An. gambiae during the 1st period, the results did not reveal any statistical association between mean trend in monthly rainfall and declining malaria vector populations. CONCLUSION: A longitudinal decline in the density of malaria mosquito vectors was seen during both study periods despite...

Saving the companies affected by the current economic crises – at the hand of stakeholders and accounting professionals

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Andreea Paula Dumitru

2013-05-01

Full Text Available The current economic environment is characterized by uncertainties related to price volatility, difficulties in the valuation of financial instruments, as well as of assets and liabilities in general. More and more companies face liquidity issues that could even threaten their existence. Under these circumstances, saving such companies becomes a major concern for the ones directly interested, “survival” being the term most used in the current state of the world’s economy. In the context of this economic turmoil at international level, the main stakeholders and the accountants professionals find themselves in the position of revising their procedures, objectives, strategies, but also their behaviour, their attitude in general, in order to limit or even eliminate the negative consequences of the financial crisis. From our perspective, the communication among company, stakeholders, and auditors represents the fundament of a successful business strategy. However, communication difficulties could be encountered, especially under conditions of uncertainty and crisis. The present article intends to identify the opportunities and threats generated by the economic crisis and to analyze the information flows among company, stakeholders and accountants professionals under circumstances in which the going concern assumption is threatened. Our paper emphasizes the importance of communication among company, stakeholders, and auditors in saving the firms affected by the economic crisis.

Obesity and economic environments.

Science.gov (United States)

Sturm, Roland; An, Ruopeng

2014-01-01

This review summarizes current understanding of economic factors during the obesity epidemic and dispels some widely held, but incorrect, beliefs. Rising obesity rates coincided with increases in leisure time (rather than increased work hours), increased fruit and vegetable availability (rather than a decline in healthier foods), and increased exercise uptake. As a share of disposable income, Americans now have the cheapest food available in history, which fueled the obesity epidemic. Weight gain was surprisingly similar across sociodemographic groups or geographic areas, rather than specific to some groups (at every point in time; however, there are clear disparities). It suggests that if one wants to understand the role of the environment in the obesity epidemic, one needs to understand changes over time affecting all groups, not differences between subgroups at a given time. Although economic and technological changes in the environment drove the obesity epidemic, the evidence for effective economic policies to prevent obesity remains limited. Taxes on foods with low nutritional value could nudge behavior toward healthier diets, as could subsidies/discounts for healthier foods. However, even a large price change for healthy foods could close only part of the gap between dietary guidelines and actual food consumption. Political support has been lacking for even moderate price interventions in the United States and this may continue until the role of environmental factors is accepted more widely. As opinion leaders, clinicians play an important role in shaping the understanding of the causes of obesity. © 2014 American Cancer Society.

Estimating economic losses to tourism in Africa from the illegal killing of elephants

Science.gov (United States)

Naidoo, Robin; Fisher, Brendan; Manica, Andrea; Balmford, Andrew

2016-11-01

Recent surveys suggest tens of thousands of elephants are being poached annually across Africa, putting the two species at risk across much of their range. Although the financial motivations for ivory poaching are clear, the economic benefits of elephant conservation are poorly understood. We use Bayesian statistical modelling of tourist visits to protected areas, to quantify the lost economic benefits that poached elephants would have delivered to African countries via tourism. Our results show these figures are substantial (~USD $25 million annually), and that the lost benefits exceed the anti-poaching costs necessary to stop elephant declines across the continent's savannah areas, although not currently in the forests of central Africa. Furthermore, elephant conservation in savannah protected areas has net positive economic returns comparable to investments in sectors such as education and infrastructure. Even from a tourism perspective alone, increased elephant conservation is therefore a wise investment by governments in these regions.

A human-driven decline in global burned area

Science.gov (United States)

Andela, N.

2017-12-01

Fire regimes are changing rapidly across the globe, driven by human land management and climate. We assessed long-term trends in fire activity using multiple satellite data sets and developed a new global data set on individual fire dynamics to understand the implications of changing fire regimes. Despite warming climate, burned area declined across most of the tropics, contributing to a global decline in burned area of 24.3 ± 8.8% over the past 18 years. The estimated decrease in burned area was largest in savannas and grasslands, where agricultural expansion and intensification were primary drivers of declining fire activity. In tropical forests, frequent fires for deforestation and agricultural management yield a sharp rise in fire activity with the expansion of settled land uses, but the use of fire decreases with increasing investment in agricultural areas in both savanna and forested landscapes. Disparate patterns of recent socieconomic development resulted in contrasting fire trends between southern Africa (increase) and South America (decrease). A strong inverse relationship between burned area and economic development in savannas and grasslands suggests that despite potential increasing fire risk from climate change, ongoing socioeconomic development will likely sustain observed declines in fire in these ecosystems during coming decades. Fewer and smaller fires reduced aerosol concentrations, modified vegetation structure, and increased the magnitude of the terrestrial carbon sink. The spatiotemporal distribution of fire size, duration, speed and direction of spread provided new insights in continental scale differences in fire regimes driven by human and climatic factors. Understanding these dynamics over larger scales is critical to achieve a balance between conservation of fire-dependent ecosystems and increasing agricultural production to support growing populations that will require careful management of fire activity in human-dominated landscapes.

Economic drivers of mineral supply

Science.gov (United States)

Wagner, Lorie A.; Sullivan, Daniel E.; Sznopek, John L.

2003-01-01

The debate over the adequacy of future supplies of mineral resources continues in light of the growing use of mineral-based materials in the United States. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, the quantity of new materials utilized each year has dramatically increased from 161 million tons2 in 1900 to 3.2 billion tons in 2000. Of all the materials used during the 20th century in the United States, more than half were used in the last 25 years. With the Earth?s endowment of natural resources remaining constant, and increased demand for resources, economic theory states that as depletion approaches, prices rise. This study shows that many economic drivers (conditions that create an economic incentive for producers to act in a particular way) such as the impact of globalization, technological improvements, productivity increases, and efficient materials usage are at work simultaneously to impact minerals markets and supply. As a result of these economic drivers, the historical price trend of mineral prices3 in constant dollars has declined as demand has risen. When price is measured by the cost in human effort, the price trend also has been almost steadily downward. Although the United States economy continues its increasing mineral consumption trend, the supply of minerals has been able to keep pace. This study shows that in general supply has grown faster than demand, causing a declining trend in mineral prices.

Economic potential of magnetic fusion energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Henning, C.D.

1981-01-01

Scientific feasibility of magnetic fusion is no longer seriously in doubt. Rapid advances have been made in both tokamak and mirror research, leading to a demonstration in the TFTR tokamak at Princeton in 1982 and the tandem mirror MFTF-B at Livermore in 1985. Accordingly, the basis is established for an aggressive engineering thrust to develop a reactor within this century. However, care must be taken to guide the fusion program towards an economically and environmentally viable goal. While the fusion fuels are essentially free, capital costs of reactors appear to be at least as large as current power plants. Accordingly, the price of electricity will not decline, and capital availability for reactor constructions will be important. Details of reactor cost projections are discussed and mechanisms suggested for fusion power implementation. Also discussed are some environmental and safety aspects of magnetic fusion

EVOLUTION OF THE ROMANIAN RESIDENTIAL MARKET AFTER OUTBREAK OF THE CURRENT ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL CRISIS

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Şteliac Nela

2013-04-01

Full Text Available The residential market is one of the market sectors seriously affected by the current economic and financial crisis. This is mirrored both in the fall of real estate trading prices and in the decreased number of transactions and cutback of newly built constructions. This trend is applicable to the entire spectrum of the residential market (luxury properties and homes destined to average-income customers. Romania is no exception from this European and world-wide state of affairs. This paper aims to briefly outline the trends on the Romanian residential market in the aftermath of the current crisis.

The impact of retirement on age related cognitive decline - a systematic review

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Meng, Annette; Nexø, Mette Andersen; Borg, Vilhelm

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND: Knowledge on factors affecting the rate of cognitive decline and how to maintain cognitive functioning in old age becomes increasingly relevant. The purpose of the current study was to systematically review the evidence for the impact of retirement on cognitive functioning and on age...... related cognitive decline. METHOD: We conducted a systematic literature review, following the principles of the PRISMA statement, of longitudinal studies on the association between retirement and cognition. RESULTS: Only seven studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. We found weak evidence...... that retirement accelerates the rate of cognitive decline in crystallised abilities, but only for individuals retiring from jobs high in complexity with people. The evidence of the impact of retirement on the rate of decline in fluid cognitive abilities is conflicting. CONCLUSION: The review revealed a major...

The Key to Promoting Economic Growth

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

2009-01-01

The low contribution of consumption to economic growth has become a source of anxiety for Chinese economic officials. With a sharp decline in exports as a result of the international financial crisis, the Chinese Government hopes that consumption will become a new engine of economic growth. The aim of promoting domestic demand is very clear in the 4-trillion-yuan ($586-billion) economic stimulus package the government approved last fall. How should we assess the present situation of consumption in China and its future course? At the Global Think Tank Summit held in Beijing on July 4, Ma Jiantang, Commissioner of the National Bureau of Statistics, Wang Guangqian, President of the Central University of Finance and Economics, and Yuan Yue, Chairman of the Board of Horizon Research Consultancy Group, shared their opinions.

AFRICAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC REVIEW

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Dr Kazungu

African Journal of Economic Review, Volume IV, Issue 1, January 2016 ... infant mortality rates in 31 selected sub-Saharan African countries for the .... Also, declines in nutritional status as a result of upsurge in food prices may cause poor birth ..... Deaton, A. (1989) 'Rice Prices and Income Distribution in Thailand: A Non- ...

Economic Situation in the Far Eastern Federal District in 2016

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Olga Mikhailovna Prokapalo

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Based on current statistical information the article analyzes conditions and trends of socio-economic development of the Far Eastern Federal District in 2016. The situation is compared with national average trends. The paper shows that socio-economic situation in the Far Eastern Federal District remains unstable and is characterized by the following trends: falling growth potential of industrial production with continued weak positive growth resulting from the growth in extractive industries; stagnating production in processing industries as a result of reduced investment due to restricted access to international financial resources and increased price of borrowing; continued negative dynamics of investment activity due to completion of large investment projects and slow development of new investment initiatives; continued negative dynamics of foreign trade; continuing sharp decreases of exports due to falling global oil and gas prices; reduction of imports across main import groups with the exceptin of machines and equipment; decline of real wages and household income

The decline in consanguineous marriage among Muslims in Israel: The role of education

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Jona Schellekens

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Background: There are two explanations for the inverse relationship between consanguinity and women's education. The female empowerment hypothesis posits that better-educated women will demand more freedom in choosing a marriage partner, whereas the role incompatibility hypothesis posits that school enrollment may prevent women from fulfilling spousal obligations. Objective: This article presents estimates of the relative contributions of school enrolment and educational attainment to the decline in consanguineous marriage. Methods: Our data comes from three rounds of the Palestinians in Israel Socio-Economic Survey. Using multinomial logistic regression analysis, we estimated discrete-time event history models to assess the effects of education on the probability of a consanguineous marriage. To test the two hypotheses we constructed two distinct education vectors for each woman from information on the number of years of schooling. The first charts yearly enrolment in education, whereas the second vector reflects actual attainment in each year. Results: Between 1975‒1979 and 2005‒2010, consanguineous marriage declined by almost 60Š. The rise in the age of leaving school explains about a third of the decline. Educational attainment did not contribute to the decline. Contribution: To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to present estimates of the relative contributions of school enrolment and educational attainment to the decline in consanguineous marriage.

Novel Method of Production Decline Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Xie, Shan; Lan, Yifei; He, Lei; Jiao, Yang; Wu, Yong

2018-02-01

ARPS decline curves is the most commonly used in oil and gas field due to its minimal data requirements and ease application. And prediction of production decline which is based on ARPS analysis rely on known decline type. However, when coefficient index are very approximate under different decline type, it is difficult to directly recognize decline trend of matched curves. Due to difficulties above, based on simulation results of multi-factor response experiments, a new dynamic decline prediction model is introduced with using multiple linear regression of influence factors. First of all, according to study of effect factors of production decline, interaction experimental schemes are designed. Based on simulated results, annual decline rate is predicted by decline model. Moreover, the new method is applied in A gas filed of Ordos Basin as example to illustrate reliability. The result commit that the new model can directly predict decline tendency without needing recognize decline style. From arithmetic aspect, it also take advantage of high veracity. Finally, the new method improves the evaluation method of gas well production decline in low permeability gas reservoir, which also provides technical support for further understanding of tight gas field development laws.

Economics of the coal industry east of the Mississippi, 1973-1982

Science.gov (United States)

Bhagwat, S.B.

1987-01-01

Government regulations on health, safety and environment have been poppular blamed for the declining productivity in U.S. coal mines since 1970. The stagnation in the coal industry east of the Mississippi is alleged to have been caused by this declining productivity and by the growth of cheaper and cleaner coal production west of the Mississippi. Economic evidence suggests, however, that productivity declines were more due to a relative lowering of labor costs in comparison with coal prices and due to work stoppages. The development of western coals fields was spurred by growth in local demand and had only a relatively small impact on coal production east of the Mississippi. Problems of the eastern coal industry are rooted mainly in slow economic growth in eastern U.S. which must be addressed in the long-term interests of the eastern coal industry. ?? 1987.

Smoking, dementia and cognitive decline in the elderly, a systematic review

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Burch Lisa

2008-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Nicotine may aid reaction time, learning and memory, but smoking increases cardiovascular risk. Cardiovascular risk factors have been linked to increased risk of dementia. A previous meta-analysis found that current smokers were at higher risk of subsequent dementia, Alzheimer's disease, vascular dementia and cognitive decline. Methods In order to update and examine this further a systematic review and meta-analysis was carried out using different search and inclusion criteria, database selection and more recent publications. Both reviews were restricted to those aged 65 and over. Results The review reported here found a significantly increased risk of Alzheimer's disease with current smoking and a likely but not significantly increased risk of vascular dementia, dementia unspecified and cognitive decline. Neither review found clear relationships with former smoking. Conclusion Current smoking increases risk of Alzheimer's disease and may increase risk of other dementias. This reinforces need for smoking cessation, particularly aged 65 and over. Nicotine alone needs further investigation.

Amphibian and reptile declines over 35 years at La Selva, Costa Rica.

Science.gov (United States)

Whitfield, Steven M; Bell, Kristen E; Philippi, Thomas; Sasa, Mahmood; Bolaños, Federico; Chaves, Gerardo; Savage, Jay M; Donnelly, Maureen A

2007-05-15

Amphibians stand at the forefront of a global biodiversity crisis. More than one-third of amphibian species are globally threatened, and over 120 species have likely suffered global extinction since 1980. Most alarmingly, many rapid declines and extinctions are occurring in pristine sites lacking obvious adverse effects of human activities. The causes of these "enigmatic" declines remain highly contested. Still, lack of long-term data on amphibian populations severely limits our understanding of the distribution of amphibian declines, and therefore the ultimate causes of these declines. Here, we identify a systematic community-wide decline in populations of terrestrial amphibians at La Selva Biological Station, a protected old-growth lowland rainforest in lower Central America. We use data collected over 35 years to show that population density of all species of terrestrial amphibians has declined by approximately 75% since 1970, and we show identical trends for all species of common reptiles. The trends we identify are neither consistent with recent emergence of chytridiomycosis nor the climate-linked epidemic hypothesis, two leading putative causes of enigmatic amphibian declines. Instead, our data suggest that declines are due to climate-driven reductions in the quantity of standing leaf litter, a critical microhabitat for amphibians and reptiles in this assemblage. Our results raise further concerns about the global persistence of amphibian populations by identifying widespread declines in species and habitats that are not currently recognized as susceptible to such risks.

DIRECTIONS AND MEASURES FOR THE RE-LAUNCHING OF THE ROMANIAN ECONOMY IN THE CONTEXT OF THE WORLD ECONOMIC CRISIS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Claudia Loredana JUNCU

2010-09-01

Full Text Available The re-launching of the Romanian economy in the context of the world economic crisis can be implemented by using a set of principles and economic measures that will lead to a strict monetary policy, a fiscal and budgetary discipline as well as a reduction of the inflation. This paper presents a series of reforms that Romania needs in the present context, to start the process of re-launching the economy that is currently in a significant descending trend. It is necessary that all the economic and political actors participate actively in progressively meeting the competitive conditions of the Comunitary economies. Corrective, stimulating and functional measures need to be undertaken to permit the applicability towards all the actors that define the structure of the economic environment. The application and enforcement of the needed anti-crisis measures will determine a stop of the decline and the creation of the premises to economical re-launching.

BASEL III: long-term impact on economic performance and fluctuations

OpenAIRE

Paolo Angelini; Laurent Clerc; Vasco Cúrdia; Leonardo Gambacorta; Andrea Gerali; Alberto Locarno; Roberto Motto; Werner Roeger; Skander J. van den Heuvel; Jan Vlcek

2011-01-01

We assess the long-term economic impact of the new regulatory standards (the Basel III reform), answering the following questions: 1) What is the impact of the reform on longterm economic performance? 2) What is the impact of the reform on economic fluctuations? 3) What is the impact of the adoption of countercyclical capital buffers on economic fluctuations? The main results are the following: 1) Each percentage point increase in the capital ratio causes a median 0.09 percent decline in the ...

Decline in male circumcision in South Korea.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, DaiSik; Koo, Sung-Ae; Pang, Myung-Geol

2012-12-11

To investigate the changing circumcision rate in South Korea in the last decade and to propose underlying causes for this change, in the context of the present fluctuating world-wide trends in circumcision. From 2009 to 2011, 3,296 South Korean males (or their parents) aged 0-64 years were asked about their circumcision status, their age at circumcision, and their information level regarding circumcision. We employed non-probability sampling considering the sensitive questions on the study theme. Currently the age-standardized circumcision rate for South Korean males aged 14-29 is found to be 75.8%. In an earlier study performed in 2002, the rate for the same age group was 86.3%. Of particular interest, males aged 14-16 show a circumcision rate of 56.4%, while the same age group 10 years ago displayed a much higher percentage, at 88.4%. In addition, the extraordinarily high circumcision rate of 95.2% found 10 years ago for the 17-19 age group is now reduced to 74.4%. Interestingly, of the circumcised males, the percentage circumcised in the last decade was only 25.2%; i.e., the majority of the currently circumcised males had undergone the operation prior to 2002, indicating that the actual change in the last decade is far greater. Consistent with this conjecture, the 2002 survey showed that the majority of circumcised males (75.7%) had undergone the operation in the decade prior to that point. Focusing on the flagship age group of 14-16, this drop suggests that, considering the population structure of Korean males, approximately one million fewer circumcision operations have been performed in the last decade relative to the case of non-decline. This decline is strongly correlated with the information available through internet, newspapers, lectures, books, and television: within the circumcised population, both the patients and their parents had less prior knowledge regarding circumcision, other than information obtained from person to person by oral communication

Economic interpretation of sustainable development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Birk Mortensen, J.

1994-01-01

The economic discussion of sustainable development show that it is possible to define the concept sufficiently precise to introduce it in economic models and to get some policy results. The concept of sustainable development does have meaning and practical implications for economic policy. The relation between sustainability as non-decreasing welfare over time and a non-declining stock of total capital including natural capital is very useful for implementing the concept for actual planning. Even rudimentary empirical measures and test of sustainability can be developed and applied and used in planning and evaluation of performance based on this idea. Weak or strong versions of the concept have been suggested and an interesting and clarifying debate within economics is going on. The debate also demonstrates that when the concept is defined more precisely - differences in opinions, standpoints and policy prescriptions show up. (EG)

The canary in the coalmine; bee declines as an indicator of environmental health.

Science.gov (United States)

Goulson, Dave; Nicholls, Elizabeth

2016-09-01

Bee declines have received much attention of late, but there is considerable debate and confusion as to the extent, significance and causes of declines. In part, this reflects conflation of data for domestic honeybees, numbers of which are largely driven by economic factors, with those for wild bees, many of which have undergone marked range contractions but for the majority of which we have no good data on population size. There is no doubt that bees are subject to numerous pressures in the modern world. The abundance and diversity of flowers has declined along with availability of suitable nest sites, bees are chronically exposed to cocktails of agrochemicals, and they are simultaneously exposed to novel parasites and pathogens accidentally spread by humans. Climate change is likely to exacerbate these problems in the future, particularly for cool- climate specialists such as bumblebees. Stressors do not act in isolation; for example pesticide exposure can impair both detoxification mechanisms and immune responses, rendering bees more susceptible to parasites. It seems certain that chronic exposure to multiple, interacting stressors is driving honeybee colony losses and declines of wild pollinators. Bees have a high profile and so their travails attract attention, but these same stressors undoubtedly bear upon other wild organisms, many of which are not monitored and have few champions. Those wild insects for which we do have population data (notably butterflies and moths) are overwhelmingly also in decline. We argue that bee declines are indicators of pervasive and ongoing environmental damage that is likely to impact broadly on biodiversity and the ecosystem services it provides.

Effects of Greenhouse Gas Emissions on World Agriculture, Food Consumption, and Economic Welfare

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Darwin, R.

2004-01-01

Because of many uncertainties, quantitative estimates of agriculturally related economic impacts of greenhouse gas emissions are often given low confidence. A major source of uncertainty is our inability to accurately project future changes in economic activity, emissions, and climate. This paper focuses on two issues. First, to what extent do variable projections of climate generate uncertainty in agriculturally related economic impacts? Second, to what extent do agriculturally related economic impacts of greenhouse gas emissions depend on economic conditions at the time of impacts? Results indicate that uncertainty due to variable projections of climate is fairly large for most of the economic effects evaluated in this analysis. Results also indicate that economic conditions at the time of impact influence the direction and size of as well as the confidence in the economic effects of identical projections of greenhouse gas impacts. The economic variable that behaves most consistently in this analysis is world crop production. Increases in mean global temperature, for example, cause world crop production to decrease on average under both 1990 and improved economic conditions and in both instances the confidence with respect to variable projections of climate is medium (e.g., 67%) or greater. In addition and as expected, CO2 fertilization causes world crop production to increase on average under 1990 and improved economic conditions. These results suggest that crop production may be a fairly robust indicator of the potential impacts of greenhouse gas emissions. A somewhat unexpected finding is that improved economic conditions are not necessarily a panacea to potential greenhouse-gas-induced damages, particularly at the region level. In fact, in some regions, impacts of climate change or CO2 fertilization that are beneficial under current economic conditions may be detrimental under improved economic conditions (relative to the new economic base). Australia plus

[The theory of the demographic transition as a reference for demo-economic models].

Science.gov (United States)

Genne, M

1981-01-01

The aim of the theory of demographic transition (TTD) is to better understand the behavior and interrelationship of economic and demographic variables. There are 2 types of demo-economic models: 1) the malthusian models, which consider demographic variables as pure exogenous variables, and 2) the neoclassical models, which consider demographic variables as strictly endogenous. If TTD can explore the behavior of exogenous and endogenous demographic variables, it cannot demonstrate neither the relation nor the order of causality among the various demographic and economic variables, but it is simply the theoretical framework of a complex social and economic phenomenon which started in Europe in the 19th Century, and which today can be extended to developing countries. There are 4 stages in the TTD; the 1st stage is characterized by high levels of fecundity and mortality; the 2nd stage is characterized by high fecundity levels and declining mortality levels; the 3rd stage is characterized by declining fecundity levels and low mortality levels; the 4th stage is characterized by low fertility and mortality levels. The impact of economic variables over mortality and birth rates is evident for mortality rates, which decline earlier and at a greater speed than birth rates. According to reliable mathematical predictions, around the year 1987 mortality rates in developing countries will have reached the low level of European countries, and growth rate will be only 1.5%. If the validity of demo-economic models has not yet been established, TTD has clearly shown that social and economic development is the factor which influences demographic expansion.

Ready, Willing, and Able? Impediments to the Onset of Marital Fertility Decline in the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Hacker, J. David

2016-01-01

This study relies on IPUMS samples of the 1850, 1860, 1870, and 1880 censuses, aggregate census data, and the timing of state laws criminalizing abortion to construct regional estimates of marital fertility in the United States and estimate correlates of marital fertility. The results show a significant lag between the onset of marital fertility decline in the nation’s northeastern census divisions and its onset in western and southern census divisions. Empirical models indicate the presence of cultural, economic, and legal impediments to the diffusion of marital fertility control and illustrate the need for more inclusive models of fertility decline. PMID:27757800

Economic Multipliers and Sectoral Linkages: Ghana and the New Oil Sector

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dennis Nchor

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The study seeks to assess the structure of the economy of Ghana in terms of changes in the economic structure before and after the production of oil in commercial quantities. This is viewed with regards to economic multipliers, sectoral interdependence and trade concentration. The results show that changes occurred with regards to multipliers and sectoral interdependence. The output multipliers of most sectors have declined. The results also show that the agricultural sector experienced an initial decline in its growth while industry experienced an increase. The performance of the services sector was relatively stable for the period covered by the study. There is a decline in the level of trade concentration though on a whole the concentration index is still high. The study employed input-output modeling techniques and the data was obtained from the Ghana statistical service and the World Development Indicators.

The Phenomenon of Financial Economics: Russia and the World Are in Current Global Turbulence

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Valentine P. Akinina

2009-12-01

Full Text Available The article deals with the analysis of the current situation on the global financial arena, analyzing the chain of cause and effect of the origins of the economic crisis and providing its possible logical outcomes. We are trying to prove here that the way the world economic situation develops will lead to either further growth or stagnation of national economies and define their position in the global business, financial, and social spheres.

We provide an analysis of the serious transformations financial economics have been undergoing at the end of the 20th and beginning of the 21st centuries. All these changes, such as the development of international fusions on financial markets, the creation of new financial instruments, products and services, and others, have been caused largely by (and also have led to significant events in the global political arena. However, regardless of the transformations, world leadership remains in the hands of US government and business and that of their closest partners, while those societies that are not willing to support the “Americanized” world order end up on the blacklist of the World Bank, the IMF, and other international financial institutions.

Finally, the article provides our views of the possible ways of dealing with the global economic stagnation. We highlight the importance of the strong and careful supervision of any global as well as national financial activities, the education of the public on the issues of wise investments, and the dangers of living on credit.

Autobiographical memory decline in Alzheimer's disease, a theoretical and clinical overview.

Science.gov (United States)

El Haj, Mohamad; Antoine, Pascal; Nandrino, Jean Louis; Kapogiannis, Dimitrios

2015-09-01

Autobiographical memory, or memory for personal experiences, allows individuals to define themselves and construct a meaningful life story. Decline of this ability, as observed in Alzheimer's disease (AD), results in an impaired sense of self and identity. In our model (AMAD: Autobiographical Memory in Alzheimer's Disease), we present a critical review of theories and findings regarding cognitive and neuroanatomical underpinnings of autobiographical memory and its decline in AD and highlight studies on its clinical rehabilitation. We propose that autobiographical recall in AD is mainly characterized by loss of associated episodic information, which leads to de-contextualization of autobiographical memories and a shift from reliving past events to a general sense of familiarity. This decline refers to retrograde, but also anterograde amnesia that affects newly acquired memories besides remote ones. One consequence of autobiographical memory decline in AD is decreased access to memories that shape self-consciousness, self-knowledge, and self-images, leading to a diminished sense of self and identity. The link between autobiographical decline and compromised sense of self in AD can also manifest itself as low correspondence and coherence between past memories and current goals and beliefs. By linking cognitive, neuroanatomical, and clinical aspects of autobiographical decline in AD, our review provides a theoretical foundation, which may lead to better rehabilitation strategies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Plasma pro-surfactant protein B and lung function decline in smokers.

Science.gov (United States)

Leung, Janice M; Mayo, John; Tan, Wan; Tammemagi, C Martin; Liu, Geoffrey; Peacock, Stuart; Shepherd, Frances A; Goffin, John; Goss, Glenwood; Nicholas, Garth; Tremblay, Alain; Johnston, Michael; Martel, Simon; Laberge, Francis; Bhatia, Rick; Roberts, Heidi; Burrowes, Paul; Manos, Daria; Stewart, Lori; Seely, Jean M; Gingras, Michel; Pasian, Sergio; Tsao, Ming-Sound; Lam, Stephen; Sin, Don D

2015-04-01

Plasma pro-surfactant protein B (pro-SFTPB) levels have recently been shown to predict the development of lung cancer in current and ex-smokers, but the ability of pro-SFTPB to predict measures of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) severity is unknown. We evaluated the performance characteristics of pro-SFTPB as a biomarker of lung function decline in a population of current and ex-smokers. Plasma pro-SFTPB levels were measured in 2503 current and ex-smokers enrolled in the Pan-Canadian Early Detection of Lung Cancer Study. Linear regression was performed to determine the relationship of pro-SFTPB levels to changes in forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) over a 2-year period as well as to baseline FEV1 and the burden of emphysema observed in computed tomography (CT) scans. Plasma pro-SFTPB levels were inversely related to both FEV1 % predicted (p=0.024) and FEV1/forced vital capacity (FVC) (p<0.001), and were positively related to the burden of emphysema on CT scans (p<0.001). Higher plasma pro-SFTPB levels were also associated with a more rapid decline in FEV1 at 1 year (p=0.024) and over 2 years of follow-up (p=0.004). Higher plasma pro-SFTPB levels are associated with increased severity of airflow limitation and accelerated decline in lung function. Pro-SFTPB is a promising biomarker for COPD severity and progression. Copyright ©ERS 2015.

Regional economic analysis of current and proposed management alternatives for Rappahannock River Valley National Wildlife Refuge

Science.gov (United States)

Koontz, Lynne; Sexton, Natalie; Donovan, Ryan

2009-01-01

The National Wildlife Refuge System Improvement Act of 1997 requires all units of the National Wildlife Refuge System to be managed under a Comprehensive Conservation Plan. The Comprehensive Conservation Plan must describe the desired future conditions of a refuge and provide long-range guidance and management direction to achieve refuge purposes. The Rappahannock River Valley National Wildlife Refuge (refuge) is in the process of developing a range of management goals, objectives, and strategies for the Comprehensive Conservation Plan. The Comprehensive Conservation Plan for the refuge must contain an analysis of expected effects associated with current and proposed refuge management strategies. The purpose of this study was to assess the regional economic implications associated with draft Comprehensive Conservation Plan management strategies. Special interest groups and local residents often criticize a change in refuge management, especially if there is a perceived negative impact to the local economy. Having objective data on economic impacts may show that these fears are overstated. Quite often, the extent of economic benefits a refuge provides to a local community is not fully recognized, yet at the same time the effects of negative changes is overstated. Spending associated with refuge recreational activities, such as wildlife viewing and hunting, can generate considerable tourist activity for surrounding communities. Additionally, refuge personnel typically spend considerable amounts of money purchasing supplies in local stores, repairing equipment and purchasing fuel at the local service stations, and reside and spend their salaries in the local community. For refuge Comprehensive Conservation Plan planning, a regional economic assessment provides a means of estimating how current management (no action alternative) and proposed management activities (alternatives) could affect the local economy. This type of analysis provides two critical pieces of

Operating a railway system within a challenging environment: Economic history and experiences of Zimbabwe’s national railways

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Charles Mbohwa

2008-11-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a historical background to the development of the railways in Zimbabwe and then discusses their current state. Besides being a landlocked country in Southern Africa, Zimbabwe has since 2000 been saddled with socio-economic and political challenges which have seen a decline in all economic indices, hence posing some challenges to its railways. This article discusses the challenges faced by the railways as a result of high inflation, unstable currency exchange rate, brain drain, poor management, government interference in management, customs border delays, and energy shortage. The problems have been addressed in unique ways and unusual solutions are proposed. These include customer financing for maintenance and spares and the resuscitation of steam locomotives. The presented solutions, lessons and issues from this experience contribute to discussions and study of railway logistics in challenging environments. Finally, current and future research issues, which have a global appeal, are presented.

Lung function decline over 25 years of follow-up among black and white adults in the ARIC study cohort.

Science.gov (United States)

Mirabelli, Maria C; Preisser, John S; Loehr, Laura R; Agarwal, Sunil K; Barr, R Graham; Couper, David J; Hankinson, John L; Hyun, Noorie; Folsom, Aaron R; London, Stephanie J

2016-04-01

Interpretation of longitudinal information about lung function decline from middle to older age has been limited by loss to follow-up that may be correlated with baseline lung function or the rate of decline. We conducted these analyses to estimate age-related decline in lung function across groups of race, sex, and smoking status while accounting for dropout from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study. We analyzed data from 13,896 black and white participants, aged 45-64 years at the 1987-1989 baseline clinical examination. Using spirometry data collected at baseline and two follow-up visits, we estimated annual population-averaged mean changes in forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC) by race, sex, and smoking status using inverse-probability-weighted independence estimating equations conditioning-on-being-alive. Estimated rates of FEV1 decline estimated using inverse-probability-weighted independence estimating equations conditioning on being alive were higher among white than black participants at age 45 years (e.g., male never smokers: black: -29.5 ml/year; white: -51.9 ml/year), but higher among black than white participants by age 75 (black: -51.2 ml/year; white: -26). Observed differences by race were more pronounced among men than among women. By smoking status, FEV1 declines were larger among current than former or never smokers at age 45 across all categories of race and sex. By age 60, FEV1 decline was larger among former and never than current smokers. Estimated annual declines generated using unweighted generalized estimating equations were smaller for current smokers at younger ages in all four groups of race and sex compared with results from weighted analyses that accounted for attrition. Using methods accounting for dropout from an approximately 25-year health study, estimated rates of lung function decline varied by age, race, sex, and smoking status, with largest declines observed among current

Plugging the Baby Gap? The Struggle to Reverse Demographic Decline in Russia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexandra Orlova

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Recently, Russia has been struggling to reverse plunging birthrates by adopting anumber of radical policies designed to encourage women to have more babies. The breakup of the Soviet Union and the ensuing economic and political instability prompted a decadelong decline in fertility rates, which dropped from 1.72 children per woman in 1991 to 1.2 children per woman in 2000. As a result, Russia lost nearly 6 million inhabitants. Relative stability and high oil prices in the decade that followed saw fertility rates settle at around 1.6 children per woman in 2012 and 1.71 children per woman in 2013, which is still below the needed replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman. This article focuses on the maternal capital subsidy for the birth of two or more children that took effect in 2007 and will run until 2016. It deals with two questions. The first question is, why has maternal capital fraud been so prevalent? The second question is, does maternal capital make a difference when it comes to increasing Russia’s birthrate? In exploring these questions, the article considers the future of maternal capital subsidy, specifically focusing on the social, economic, and political outcomes of the current Ukraine crisis and Russia’s annexation of the Crimean peninsula. The article concludes that the overly restrictive design of the maternal capital program provides afertile ground for fraud and that this subsidy fails to address the many complex causes underlying Russia’s declining fertility rates, thus limiting its effectiveness. Mothers and their families want the maternal capital money here and now because they do not believe that the money will be available in the future (in part, such belief is justified by the turbulent history of the 1990s and several bank collapses. The other side of the coin is that the state does not trust its citizens to use maternal capital money in a responsible fashion and has thus prescribed very limited usages for these

The declining demand for hospital care as a rationale for duty hour reform.

Science.gov (United States)

Jena, Anupam B; DePasse, Jacqueline W; Prasad, Vinay

2014-10-01

The regulation of duty hours of physicians in training remains among the most hotly debated subjects in medical education. Although recent duty hour reforms have been chiefly motivated by concerns about resident well-being and medical errors attributable to resident fatigue, the debate surrounding duty hour reform has infrequently involved discussion of one of the most important secular changes in hospital care that has affected nearly all developed countries over the last 3 decades: the declining demand for hospital care. For example, in 1980, we show that resident physicians in US teaching hospitals provided, on average, 1,302 inpatient days of care per resident physician compared to 593 inpatient days in 2011, a decline of 54%. This decline in the demand for hospital care by residents provides an under-recognized economic rationale for reducing residency duty hours, a rationale based solely on supply and demand considerations. Work hour reductions and growing requirements for outpatient training can be seen as an appropriate response to the shrinking demand for hospital care across the health-care sector.

Subjective cognitive decline and fall risk in community-dwelling older adults with or without objective cognitive decline.

Science.gov (United States)

Shirooka, Hidehiko; Nishiguchi, Shu; Fukutani, Naoto; Tashiro, Yuto; Nozaki, Yuma; Aoyama, Tomoki

2018-05-01

The association between subjective cognitive decline and falls has not been clearly determined. Our aim was to explore the effect of subjective cognitive decline on falls in community-dwelling older adults with or without objective cognitive decline. We included 470 older adults (mean age 73.6 ± 5.2; 329 women) living in the community and obtained data on fall history directly from the participants. Subjective cognitive decline was assessed using a self-administered question. Objective cognitive function was measured using the Mini-Mental State Examination. Statistical analyses were carried out separately for participants with objective cognitive decline and those without. A multiple logistic regression analysis showed that, among participants without objective cognitive decline, subjective cognitive decline was positively associated with falls [OR 1.91; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.17-3.12; p = 0.01). Conversely, among participants with objective cognitive decline, subjective cognitive decline was negatively associated with falls (OR 0.07; 95% CI 0.01-0.85, p = 0.04). The result suggests that the objective-subjective disparity may affect falls in community-dwelling older adults. The presence of subjective cognitive decline was significantly positively associated with falls among cognitively intact older adults. However, among their cognitively impaired peers, the absence of subjective cognitive decline was positively associated with falls.

Health, "illth," and economic growth: medicine, environment, and economics at the crossroads.

Science.gov (United States)

Egger, Garry

2009-07-01

Economic growth has been the single biggest contributor to population health since the Industrial Revolution. The growth paradigm, by definition, is dynamic, implying similar diminishing returns on investment at both the macro- and the micro-economic levels. Changes in patterns of health in developing countries, from predominantly microbial-related infectious diseases to lifestyle-related chronic diseases (e.g., obesity, type 2 diabetes) beyond a point of economic growth described as the epidemiologic transition, suggest the start of certain declining benefits from further investment in the growth model. These changes are reflected in slowing improvements in some health indices (e.g., mortality, infant mortality) and deterioration in others (e.g., disability-associated life years, obesity, chronic diseases). Adverse environmental consequences, such as climate change from economic development, are also related to disease outcomes through the development of inflammatory processes due to an immune reaction to new environmental and lifestyle-related inducers. Both increases in chronic disease and climate change can be seen as growth problems with a similar economic cause and potential economic and public health-rather than personal health-solutions. Some common approaches for dealing with both are discussed, with a plea for greater involvement by health scientists in the economic and environmental debates in order to deal effectively with issues like obesity and chronic disease.

ROBUST DECLINE CURVE ANALYSIS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sutawanir Darwis

2012-05-01

Full Text Available Empirical decline curve analysis of oil production data gives reasonable answer in hyperbolic type curves situations; however the methodology has limitations in fitting real historical production data in present of unusual observations due to the effect of the treatment to the well in order to increase production capacity. The development ofrobust least squares offers new possibilities in better fitting production data using declinecurve analysis by down weighting the unusual observations. This paper proposes a robustleast squares fitting lmRobMM approach to estimate the decline rate of daily production data and compares the results with reservoir simulation results. For case study, we usethe oil production data at TBA Field West Java. The results demonstrated that theapproach is suitable for decline curve fitting and offers a new insight in decline curve analysis in the present of unusual observations.

Early-Transition Output Decline Revisited

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Crt Kostevc

2016-05-01

Full Text Available In this paper we revisit the issue of aggregate output decline that took place in the early transition period. We propose an alternative explanation of output decline that is applicable to Central- and Eastern-European countries. In the first part of the paper we develop a simple dynamic general equilibrium model that builds on work by Gomulka and Lane (2001. In particular, we consider price liberalization, interpreted as elimination of distortionary taxation, as a trigger of the output decline. We show that price liberalization in interaction with heterogeneous adjustment costs and non-employment benefits lead to aggregate output decline and surge in wage inequality. While these patterns are consistent with actual dynamics in CEE countries, this model cannot generate output decline in all sectors. Instead sectors that were initially taxed even exhibit output growth. Thus, in the second part we consider an alternative general equilibrium model with only one production sector and two types of labor and distortion in a form of wage compression during the socialist era. The trigger for labor mobility and consequently output decline is wage liberalization. Assuming heterogeneity of workers in terms of adjustment costs and non-employment benefits can explain output decline in all industries.

Rural Policy and the New Regional Economics: Implications for Rural America.

Science.gov (United States)

Quigley, John M.

This paper discusses gross economic and demographic trends in rural and urban America during the past 30 years, the kinds of competitive advantages enjoyed by urban and rural regions, and insights offered by the new regional economics concerning exploitation of those advantages. The importance of agriculture has declined in rural areas, while that…

Economic decline and residential segregation : A Swedish study with focus on Malmö

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Andersson, R.; Hedman, L.K.

2016-01-01

Economic crises are often associated with increasing levels of income segregation and income polarization. Poor neighborhoods generally hit more severely, with unemployment levels increasing and income levels dropping more than in better-off neighborhoods. In this article, we study the correlation

Hegemonic Decline, West European Unification, and the Future Structure of the Core

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Volker Bornschier

1995-08-01

Full Text Available This paper queries the applicability of hegemonic cycle theories to the emerging structure in the core of the world political economy and argues that we are likely, following this period of relative decline in American hegemony, to witness the emergence of hegemonic social practices in the absence, however, of a hegemonic state. Contrasting new beginnings with past patterns, we will suggest arguments why history will not be repeated. Drawing on our research on the Single European Act (SEA, we argue that the bargain struck between the Commission of the European Union and West European transnational corporations, which culminated in the SEA, represents more than a decisive step towards economic and political union. We see it, more significantly, as embodying Europe's response to its declining position through an attempt to articulate a new societal model capable of successfully replacing the disarticulated post-WWII Keynesian social-welfare model, and of competing with the Japanese and American societal models. In the future, it is very unlikely that power among the actors in the Triad will be so unevenly distributed as to permit the rise of a new hegemonic state. While it would seem, judging from historical experience, that the presence of a hegemonic state was functionally necessary for the establishment of hegemonic social practices in the core, we argue that another mechanism has now moved to the forefront. Due to pressures generated through increasing economic globalization, linked to demands associated with the quest for legitimacy on the part of democratic governments, we foresee, following a period of increased economic competition, the convergence of social practices around a single societal model.

The puritan heritage and current economic attitudes in America

OpenAIRE

Elliott, Emory

1987-01-01

This essay sustains that the contemporary economic yearnings of American society are deeply rooted in seventeenth century Puritan Massachusetts — a cultural heritage which the people are unwilling and perhaps unable to abandon.The author identifies five of the most firmly-held assumptions as a beginning for the study of cultural values and economics in the United States today: 1. The assumption that America has a special, divinely ordained role as a world leader — exemplar of democratic ideal...

Evolution of a Human Ecology Curriculum from Home Economics: A Proposal for High Schools.

Science.gov (United States)

Lunneborg, Patricia W.

Proposed is the development of an ecology curriculum at the secondary school level by home economics instructors in conjunction with teachers in biology, health, social science, etc. To combat the decline in enrollment in home economics and the complaint of irrelevance of traditional cooking and sewing courses, home economics teachers are urged to…

The declining influence of family background on educational attainment in Australia: The role of measured and unmeasured influences.

Science.gov (United States)

Marks, Gary N; Mooi-Reci, Irma

2016-01-01

The paper examines changes in the influence of family background, including socioeconomic and social background variables on educational attainment in Australia for cohorts born between 1890 and 1982. We test hypotheses from modernization theory on sibling data using random effects models and find: (i) substantial declines in the influence of family background on educational attainment (indicated by the sibling intraclass correlations); (ii) declines in the effects of both economic and cultural socioeconomic background variables; (iii) changes in the effects of some social background variables (e.g., family size); (iv) and declines in the extent that socioeconomic and social background factors account for variation in educational attainment. Unmeasured family background factors are more important, and proportionally increasingly so, for educational attainment than the measured socioeconomic and social background factors analyzed. Fixed effects models showed steeper declines in the effects of socioeconomic background variables than in standard analyses suggesting that unmeasured family factors associated with socioeconomic background obscure the full extent of the decline. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Collection development and outsourcing in academic health sciences libraries: a survey of current practices.

Science.gov (United States)

Blecic, D D; Hollander, S; Lanier, D

1999-04-01

Academic health sciences libraries in the United States and Canada were surveyed regarding collection development trends, including their effect on approval plan and blanket order use, and use of outsourcing over the past four years. Results of the survey indicate that serials market forces, budgetary constraints, and growth in electronic resources purchasing have resulted in a decline in the acquisition of print items. As a result, approval plan use is being curtailed in many academic health sciences libraries. Although use of blanket orders is more stable, fewer than one-third of academic health sciences libraries report using them currently. The decline of print collections suggests that libraries should explore cooperative collection development of print materials to ensure access and preservation. The decline of approval plan use and the need for cooperative collection development may require additional effort for sound collection development. Libraries were also surveyed about their use of outsourcing. Some libraries reported outsourcing cataloging and shelf preparation of books, but none reported using outsourcing for resource selection. The reason given most often for outsourcing was that it resulted in cost savings. As expected, economic factors are driving both collection development and outsourcing practices.

The economic crisis and the insurance industry: The evidence from the ex-Yugoslavia region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Njegomir Vladimir

2010-01-01

Full Text Available The paper analyses the impact of the economic crisis on the insurance industries of the ex-Yugoslavia region. The analysis encompasses five countries: Slovenia, Croatia, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and FYR Macedonia. We examine insurance industry specifics separately for each country for the period 2004-2008 and for the first six months of 2009. While the impact of the crisis varies between countries, the research results indicate that the global financial crisis has had limited overall impact on the regional insurance industry. However the current recession resulted in negative premium growth in Serbia, Croatia and FYR Macedonia while the growth in Slovenia and Bosnia and Herzegovina declined. At the same time investment returns have declined and claims have risen in all countries. The crisis had more pronounced impact on non-life insurance premium growth in less developed insurance markets. In developed markets, namely Slovenia and Croatia, the crisis had greater impact on life insurance premium growth.

Terrestrial pesticide exposure of amphibians: an underestimated cause of global decline?

Science.gov (United States)

Brühl, Carsten A; Schmidt, Thomas; Pieper, Silvia; Alscher, Annika

2013-01-01

Amphibians, a class of animals in global decline, are present in agricultural landscapes characterized by agrochemical inputs. Effects of pesticides on terrestrial life stages of amphibians such as juvenile and adult frogs, toads and newts are little understood and a specific risk assessment for pesticide exposure, mandatory for other vertebrate groups, is currently not conducted. We studied the effects of seven pesticide products on juvenile European common frogs (Rana temporaria) in an agricultural overspray scenario. Mortality ranged from 100% after one hour to 40% after seven days at the recommended label rate of currently registered products. The demonstrated toxicity is alarming and a large-scale negative effect of terrestrial pesticide exposure on amphibian populations seems likely. Terrestrial pesticide exposure might be underestimated as a driver of their decline calling for more attention in conservation efforts and the risk assessment procedures in place do not protect this vanishing animal group.

The Need of a New Economic Model

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Alexandru Cătălin POPA

2012-02-01

Full Text Available The current global economic crisis has proven to be unpredictable for most decision-makers worldwide. Moreover, beliefs deeply embedded in the minds of economists about economics, about the virtues of capitalism and free market began to falter. Sooner or later the current crisis will end. The problem that arises and to which the economic science must answer is whether anything should be changed in the current world economic order and especially what exactly. It is quite vital to ask ourselves today in what kind of society we want to live and whether the current economic model, a model mainly based on monetarist ideas, is helping us to achieve those wishes. In addition to analyzing the root causes that led to the current economic crisis, this article aims to analyze whether the current economic model must change and to outline the features of a possible new model.

Recent widespread tree growth decline despite increasing atmospheric CO2.

Science.gov (United States)

Silva, Lucas C R; Anand, Madhur; Leithead, Mark D

2010-07-21

The synergetic effects of recent rising atmospheric CO(2) and temperature are expected to favor tree growth in boreal and temperate forests. However, recent dendrochronological studies have shown site-specific unprecedented growth enhancements or declines. The question of whether either of these trends is caused by changes in the atmosphere remains unanswered because dendrochronology alone has not been able to clarify the physiological basis of such trends. Here we combined standard dendrochronological methods with carbon isotopic analysis to investigate whether atmospheric changes enhanced water use efficiency (WUE) and growth of two deciduous and two coniferous tree species along a 9 degrees latitudinal gradient across temperate and boreal forests in Ontario, Canada. Our results show that although trees have had around 53% increases in WUE over the past century, growth decline (measured as a decrease in basal area increment--BAI) has been the prevalent response in recent decades irrespective of species identity and latitude. Since the 1950s, tree BAI was predominantly negatively correlated with warmer climates and/or positively correlated with precipitation, suggesting warming induced water stress. However, where growth declines were not explained by climate, WUE and BAI were linearly and positively correlated, showing that declines are not always attributable to warming induced stress and additional stressors may exist. Our results show an unexpected widespread tree growth decline in temperate and boreal forests due to warming induced stress but are also suggestive of additional stressors. Rising atmospheric CO2 levels during the past century resulted in consistent increases in water use efficiency, but this did not prevent growth decline. These findings challenge current predictions of increasing terrestrial carbon stocks under climate change scenarios.

Current-Account Imbalances and Economic Growth During the 2008-2009 Financial Crisis: an Empirical Analysis

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Rossitsa Rangelova

2014-06-01

Full Text Available This study examines the relationship between current-account imbalances and economic growth during the 2008-2009 financial and economic crisis for 179 countries (covered by IMF data and within the EU-27 countries (covered by Eurostat data. The countries are divided into 4 groups by GDP per capita based on PPPs, namely, low income, lower middle-income, upper middle-income and high-income countries. Empirical analysis is applied, including descriptive statistics and regression estimates. Statistical data are used, including the average of the GDP growth rate in the years prior to the crisis (2003–2007, the average of the GDP growth rate for 2008 and 2009, current account as a percentage of GDP, and the level of average inflation. It is proved that, in general, the 2008-2009 crisis affected high- and upper middle-income countries more than poorer countries. Within the EU-27 countries, however, the crisis appears to have affected lower income countries more than higher income countries. A common tendency is observed for the two country samples: countries that experienced strong growth just prior to the crisis had an increased risk of suffering after the crisis. The boom prior to the crisis led to imbalances that rendered economies more vulnerable. Additionally, surpluses that existed prior to the crisis are an important risk factor for the two groups of countries.

Enhancement of human capital assets role in current economic situation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pechenaia Liudmila Timofeevna

2014-02-01

Full Text Available The paper presents transformation of the notion “human capital assets” in economics. Methodical approaches to evaluation of human capital assets and involvement in innovation process. Generalization of theoretical overview data allows conclusion about strong interest to this economic category, testifying to good promise of this field development.

Gas production and decline rates in the province of Alberta

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samson, L.A.

1999-01-01

A detailed study was conducted to evaluate the gas production decline rates in Alberta. The study examined the producing gas wells that were place in production between 1990 and 1997. Three major assumptions were used to determine the number of wells necessary to meet future market demand. These were: (1) reserves have been declining at greater rates in the past several years. The current rate of decline is 12 per cent, (2) new reserves added in future will produce at 5.1 E6M3 per year, and (3) the decline rates for new gas wells will be 27 per cent in the first year, 16 per cent in the second year, 12 per cent in the third year and thereafter. With this information, the Alberta Energy and Utilities Board estimates that the annual total deliveries of gas from Alberta in the year 2002 will be 177.4 E9M3 compared to 127 E9M3 in 1997. In order to meet this supply, drilling activity for successful gas wells will have to double the 1997 rate because it is predicted that more than 6400 new wells will be needed per year to meet future demand. 2 refs., 2 tabs., 20 figs

ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL ASPECTS OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC AGEING PROCESS IN THE REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA

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Olga SÂRBU

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Purpose of this paper consists in analyzing economic and social aspects of demographic aging process in Moldova. To interpret the accumulated data and calculations performed analytical method of calculation tabular method and graphical method was applied. Intense process of aging is associated with changes in all spheres of social and economic life and affects equally the interests of older people and society as a whole. In Republic of Moldova aging population has grown in the last two decades, being conditioned both declining birth rate, which is very low and does not provide simple reproduction of the population and the mass migration of population that leads to the depopulation of the country. Maintaining the natural and migration increase with negative values amplifies the negative demographic deterioration of the country, which influences economic development, competitiveness and stability of the country and welfare of its citizens. In this situation it is necessary to respond positively to the challenges of demographic change through the complex and multisectoral approaches designed to correct current unfavorable demographic evolutions.

The odd couple: The relationship between state economic performance and carbon emissions economic intensity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davidsdottir, B.; Fisher, M.

2011-01-01

Historical time trends indicate that both carbon and energy intensity have declined in the United States over the last several decades, while economic performance, as measured by per capita GSP, has improved. This observation indicates that it may be possible to reduce carbon intensity without a reduction in economic performance. This paper assesses using panel analysis, the empirical relationship between carbon emissions intensity and economic performance, and examines the direction of causality between the two variables. Data for the analysis covered 48 states, excluding Hawaii, Alaska, and Washington DC, from 1980 to 2000. The results indicate significant bi-directional relationship between carbon emissions intensity and state economic performance, both using an aggregate indicator for carbon emissions intensity, decomposed using Laspeyres indexes and disaggregated by sector. This implies that it should be possible to implement statewide and sector-specific policies to reduce energy and carbon intensity and at the same time improve economic performance. - Highlights: → The empirical relationship between carbon emissions intensity and economic performance is assessed → The direction of causality between the two variables is examined. → Results indicate significant relationship between carbon emissions intensity and state economic performance. → Relationship is bi-directional, and holds for both aggregate analysis and by sector. → It is possible to implement policies to reduce carbon intensity and improve economic performance.

Autobiographical memory decline in Alzheimer’s disease, a theoretical and clinical overview

Science.gov (United States)

El Haj, Mohamad; Antoine, Pascal; Nandrino, Jean Louis; Kapogiannis, Dimitrios

2017-01-01

Autobiographical memory, or memory for personal experiences, allows individuals to define themselves and construct a meaningful life story. Decline of this ability, as observed in Alzheimer’s disease (AD), results in an impaired sense of self and identity. In our model (AMAD: Autobiographical Memory in Alzheimer’s Disease), we present a critical review of theories and findings regarding cognitive and neuroanatomical underpinnings of autobiographical memory and its decline in AD and highlight studies on its clinical rehabilitation. We propose that autobiographical recall in AD is mainly characterized by loss of associated episodic information, which leads to de-contextualization of autobiographical memories and a shift from reliving past events to a general sense of familiarity. This decline refers to retrograde, but also anterograde amnesia that affects newly acquired memories besides remote ones. One consequence of autobiographical memory decline in AD is decreased access to memories that shape self-consciousness, self-knowledge, and self-images, leading to a diminished sense of self and identity. The link between autobiographical decline and compromised sense of self in AD can also manifest itself as low correspondence and coherence between past memories and current goals and beliefs. By linking cognitive, neuroanatomical, and clinical aspects of autobiographical decline in AD, our review provides a theoretical foundation, which may lead to better rehabilitation strategies. PMID:26169474

The decline of natural sciences in the culture of mass media

Science.gov (United States)

Elías, Carlos

2011-06-01

This study sets out to determine if the interest in and study of natural sciences is declining in western countries as scientists currently contend. Part one demonstrates how survey results reveal a decline of interest in scientific news in the EU. Part two explores the decline of interest further through examining data such as the number of students interested in scientific subjects and scientific careers. I explore the hypothesis that the lack of interest in scientific subjects is influenced by the culture of the mass media, and the manner in which the media covers scientific items. I examine a range of media outlets, from reality TV shows and TV series, to movies and the press. Many aspects of this paper have been discussed in depth in my book published in 2008: La razón estrangulada (Reason Strangled: the Crisis of Science in Contemporary Society).

Technical change and economic growth : some lessons from secular patterns and some conjectures on the current impact of ICT

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Castaldi, C.; Dosi, G.; Cimoli, M.; Hofman, A.A.; Mulder, N.

2010-01-01

This chapter evaluates the effects of the current 'revolution' in information and communication technologies (lCT) upon economic growth and development from an evolutionary perspective. Before addressing this issue, we first discuss the distinctive 'evolutionary' interpretation of the processes of

Anthropogenic Contribution to the Southeast Pacific Precipitation Decline and Recent (2010-2015) Mega-Drought in Chile

Science.gov (United States)

Boisier, J. P.

2015-12-01

Within the large uncertainties in the precipitation response to the anthropogenic climate forcing, the projections towards dryer conditions in the southeast Pacific sector and west bound of southern South America represent a particularly robust signature in climate model simulations. A rainfall decline of consistent direction but of larger amplitude than those simulated has been observed in Chile during the last decades, but the causes of this trend have never been formally attributed. With this purpose, we analyze local rain-gauge data and contrast them to a large ensemble both of fully-coupled and sea surface temperature-forced simulations. In concomitance with large-scale circulation changes, we show that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation explains about 50% of the rainfall trend observed since 1979 in central Chile. Our results also indicate that the remaining fraction of the observed drying is unlikely (p Chile since 2010, emerges as a realistic scenario for this region under the current socio-economic pathway.

What Makes Clusters Decline?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Østergaard, Christian Richter; Park, Eun Kyung

2015-01-01

Most studies on regional clusters focus on identifying factors and processes that make clusters grow. However, sometimes technologies and market conditions suddenly shift, and clusters decline. This paper analyses the process of decline of the wireless communication cluster in Denmark. The longit...... but being quick to withdraw in times of crisis....

Techno-economical Analysis of Rooftop Grid-connected PV Dairy Farms; Case Study of Urmia University Dairy Farm

Science.gov (United States)

Nikbakht, A. M.; Aste, N.; Sarnavi, H. J.; Leonforte, F.

2017-08-01

The global trends indicate a growing commitment to renewable energy development because of declining fossil fuels and environmental threats. Moreover, the global demographic growth coupled with rising demands for food has escalated the rate of energy consumption in food section. This study aims to investigate the techno-economic impacts of a grid-connected rooftop PV plan applied for a educational dairy farm in Urmia university, with total estimated annual electrical energy consumption of 18,283 kWh, located at the north west part of Iran. Based on the current feed-in tariff and tremendously low electricity price in agriculture section in Iran, the plants with size ranged from 14.4 to 19.7 kWp (initial investment ranged from 26,000 to 36,000 USD) would be satisfied economically.

Environmental & economic life cycle assessment of current & future sewage sludge to energy technologies.

Science.gov (United States)

Mills, N; Pearce, P; Farrow, J; Thorpe, R B; Kirkby, N F

2014-01-01

The UK Water Industry currently generates approximately 800GWh pa of electrical energy from sewage sludge. Traditionally energy recovery from sewage sludge features Anaerobic Digestion (AD) with biogas utilisation in combined heat and power (CHP) systems. However, the industry is evolving and a number of developments that extract more energy from sludge are either being implemented or are nearing full scale demonstration. This study compared five technology configurations: 1 - conventional AD with CHP, 2 - Thermal Hydrolysis Process (THP) AD with CHP, 3 - THP AD with bio-methane grid injection, 4 - THP AD with CHP followed by drying of digested sludge for solid fuel production, 5 - THP AD followed by drying, pyrolysis of the digested sludge and use of the both the biogas and the pyrolysis gas in a CHP. The economic and environmental Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) found that both the post AD drying options performed well but the option used to create a solid fuel to displace coal (configuration 4) was the most sustainable solution economically and environmentally, closely followed by the pyrolysis configuration (5). Application of THP improves the financial and environmental performance compared with conventional AD. Producing bio-methane for grid injection (configuration 3) is attractive financially but has the worst environmental impact of all the scenarios, suggesting that the current UK financial incentive policy for bio-methane is not driving best environmental practice. It is clear that new and improving processes and technologies are enabling significant opportunities for further energy recovery from sludge; LCA provides tools for determining the best overall options for particular situations and allows innovation resources and investment to be focused accordingly. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Altered Reproductive Function and Amphibian Declines

OpenAIRE

Gallipeau, Sherrie

2014-01-01

Agrochemical exposure is one of the factors that contributes to worldwide amphibian declines. Most studies that examine agrochemicals and amphibian declines focus on toxicity. However, declines are more likely caused by the sub-lethal effects of agrochemical exposure. Past emphases on the lethal effects of agrochemical exposure have overshadowed the contribution of decreased recruitment in amphibian declines. Additionally, studies that examine agrochemicals and reproductive function tend to f...

Origin, Development and Decline of Monolithic Pillars and the Continuity of the Tradition in Polylithic, Non-Lithic and Structural Forms

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Krishnamurthy

2016-02-01

Full Text Available The present paper deals with one such creations of Man, i.e. the tradition of erecting free standing monolithic pillars - its origin, growth and decline and the continuity of the tradition of erecting such pillars in its changed polylithic (from Greek word polloi = many + lithic = stone, non-lithic and structural forms. No exact reason can be found, pointing it to be the exact cause for the decline in the tradition of erecting monolithic pillar and its transformation. In this paper the authors try to analyse various phenomenon likesocio-political, economic and technical aspects which may have lead to their decline and subsequently their continuity in a changed form in Indian context.

Economic implications of Japan's aging population: a macro-economic demographic modeling approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Ogawa, N

1982-01-01

This paper utilizes a macroeconomic demographic model to analyze the probable impact of population aging on various public programs in Japan. Rapid fertility decline aided by mortality decline has caused the proportion of the Japanese population aged 65 and over to increase from 4.9% in 1950 to 9.0% in 1980. A population projection based on the 1975 population census assumes a recovery of fertility from a total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.9 in 1976 to 2.16 in 1980 and a gradual decline to 2.1 by 1987, while an alternative projection assumes a continuing fertility decline to a TFR of 1.65 in 2025. According to these assumptions, in 2025 18.12% to 21.29% of the total population would be aged 65 or over and 38.66% to 43.80% of the working age population would be aged 45-64. A macroeconomic neoclassical growth model with some Keynesian features was formulated to evaluate the future impact of population aging on social security programs. Population changes are transmitted to economic variables in the model through the supply of labor, level of savings, public health care plans, and old-age pension schemes. The simulation experiments included the 2 population projections and 2 alternative production functions, 1 with the quality of labor incorporated and 1 without. The results indicated that, regardless of the population projection and production function used, the growth of the economy is likely to slow to 1 or 0% in the beginning of the next century due to decreased growth of the labor force and a change in its quality due to age-compositional variations. Public health insurance schemes and pension plans will require increasing financial resources as a result of accelerated population aging; depending on the choice of benefit levels, the proportion of national income allocated to them is expected to range from 14%-40% in the year 2010. Per capita gross national product will continue to grow despite decreased economic growth, but savings might be adversely affected if the

Future Discounting in Congo Basin Hunter-Gatherers Declines with Socio-Economic Transitions.

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Gul Deniz Salali

Full Text Available Humans have a tendency to discount the future; that is we value small, short-term rewards over larger, long-term rewards. The degree of future discounting, however, changes in response to socio-ecological factors. Here, we study Mbendjele BaYaka hunter-gatherers of northern Congo and their farmer neighbours to investigate adaptations in inter-temporal preferences in humans. We argue that in immediate-return systems, where food storage is absent and egalitarianism is enforced through levelling mechanisms, future discounting is an adaptive strategy to prevent wealth accumulation and the emergence of hierarchies. This ensures food sharing and allows for survival in unpredictable environments where there is risk of an energy shortfall. On the other hand, when food storage is made possible by the emergence of agriculture or as seen in some delayed-return hunter-gatherer populations, wealth accumulation, hierarchies and lower discount rates become the adaptive strategy. Therefore, individuals in immediate-return, egalitarian societies will discount the future more than those in non-egalitarian, delayed-return societies. Consistent with the predictions we found that market integration and socio-economic transitions decrease the future discounting in Mbendjele hunter-gatherers. Our measures of socio-economic differences marked this transition in hunter-gatherers living in a logging town. The degree of future-discounting was the same between more market-integrated hunter-gatherers and their farmer neighbours.

Insulin-like Growth Factor 1 (IGF-1) as a marker of cognitive decline in normal ageing: A review.

Science.gov (United States)

Frater, Julanne; Lie, David; Bartlett, Perry; McGrath, John J

2018-03-01

Insulin-like Growth Factor 1 (IGF-1) and its signaling pathway play a primary role in normal growth and ageing, however serum IGF-1 is known to reduce with advancing age. Recent findings suggest IGF-1 is essential for neurogenesis in the adult brain, and this reduction of IGF-1 with ageing may contribute to age-related cognitive decline. Experimental studies have shown manipulation of the GH/GF-1 axis can slow rates of cognitive decline in animals, making IGF-1 a potential biomarker of cognition, and/or its signaling pathway a possible therapeutic target to prevent or slow age-related cognitive decline. A systematic literature review and qualitative narrative summary of current evidence for IGF-1 as a biomarker of cognitive decline in the ageing brain was undertaken. Results indicate IGF-1 concentrations do not confer additional diagnostic information for those with cognitive decline, and routine clinical measurement of IGF-1 is not currently justified. In cases of established cognitive impairment, it remains unclear whether increasing circulating or brain IGF-1 may reverse or slow down the rate of further decline. Advances in neuroimaging, genetics, neuroscience and the availability of large well characterized biobanks will facilitate research exploring the role of IGF-1 in both normal ageing and age-related cognitive decline. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Oak decline in the Boston Mountains, Arkansas, USA: Spatial and temporal patterns under two fire regimes

Science.gov (United States)

Martin A. Spetich; Hong S. He

2008-01-01

A spatially explicit forest succession and disturbance model is used to delineate the extent and dispersion of oak decline under two fire regimes over a 150-year period. The objectives of this study are to delineate potential current and future oak decline areas using species composition and age structure data in combination with ecological land types, and to...

Are snake populations in widespread decline?

OpenAIRE

Reading, C. J.; Luiselli, L. M.; Akani, G. C.; Bonnet, X.; Amori, G.; Ballouard, J. M.; Filippi, E.; Naulleau, G.; Pearson, D.; Rugiero, L.

2010-01-01

Long-term studies have revealed population declines in fishes, amphibians, reptiles, birds and mammals. In birds, and particularly amphibians, these declines are a global phenomenon whose causes are often unclear. Among reptiles, snakes are top predators and therefore a decline in their numbers may have serious consequences for the functioning of many ecosystems. Our results show that, of 17 snake populations (eight species) from the UK, France, Italy, Nigeria and Australia, 11 have declined ...

System of economics' security management in economic activity of meat processing enterprises formation

OpenAIRE

Iryna Sosnovska

2015-01-01

This article is devoted to creation of economics' security management system production and economic activity of meat current processing enterprises. The article reflects research results of various scientists scientific works regarding interpretation of economic security system and shows the lack of this concept single interpretation. There are summarized observation of current activities of meat processing plants specifics as a conclusion there are a large number of different programs and c...

Educational and Economic History: The Good Neighbours

Science.gov (United States)

Sanderson, Michael

2007-01-01

The disciplines of economic history and the history of education have drawn closer since the 1960s. This engagement has led to fresh thematic contributions--the role of literacy and education in the Industrial Revolution and industrialization generally, how far its neglect underlay the "decline" of Britain since 1870, the relation of…

The impact of freedom on fertility decline.

Science.gov (United States)

Campbell, Martha M; Prata, Ndola; Potts, Malcolm

2013-01-01

Although fertility decline often correlates with improvements in socioeconomic conditions, many demographers have found flaws in demographic transition theories that depend on changes in distal factors such as increased wealth or education. Human beings worldwide engage in sexual intercourse much more frequently than is needed to conceive the number of children they want, and for women who do not have access to the information and means they need to separate sex from childbearing, the default position is a large family. In many societies, male patriarchal drives to control female reproduction give rise to unnecessary medical rules constraining family planning (including safe abortion) or justifying child marriage. Widespread misinformation about contraception makes women afraid to adopt modern family planning. The barriers to family planning can be so deeply infused that for many women the idea of managing their fertility is not considered an option. Conversely, there is evidence that once family planning is introduced into a society, then it is normal consumer behaviour for individuals to welcome a new technology they had not wanted until it became realistically available. We contend that in societies free from child marriage, wherever women have access to a range of contraceptive methods, along with correct information and backed up by safe abortion, family size will always fall. Education and wealth can make the adoption of family planning easier, but they are not prerequisites for fertility decline. By contrast, access to family planning itself can accelerate economic development and the spread of education.

Honey bee pathology: current threats to honey bees and beekeeping.

Science.gov (United States)

Genersch, Elke

2010-06-01

Managed honey bees are the most important commercial pollinators of those crops which depend on animal pollination for reproduction and which account for 35% of the global food production. Hence, they are vital for an economic, sustainable agriculture and for food security. In addition, honey bees also pollinate a variety of wild flowers and, therefore, contribute to the biodiversity of many ecosystems. Honey and other hive products are, at least economically and ecologically rather, by-products of beekeeping. Due to this outstanding role of honey bees, severe and inexplicable honey bee colony losses, which have been reported recently to be steadily increasing, have attracted much attention and stimulated many research activities. Although the phenomenon "decline of honey bees" is far from being finally solved, consensus exists that pests and pathogens are the single most important cause of otherwise inexplicable colony losses. This review will focus on selected bee pathogens and parasites which have been demonstrated to be involved in colony losses in different regions of the world and which, therefore, are considered current threats to honey bees and beekeeping.

A statistical test of the stability assumption inherent in empirical estimates of economic depreciation.

Science.gov (United States)

Shriver, K A

1986-01-01

Realistic estimates of economic depreciation are required for analyses of tax policy, economic growth and production, and national income and wealth. THe purpose of this paper is to examine the stability assumption underlying the econometric derivation of empirical estimates of economic depreciation for industrial machinery and and equipment. The results suggest that a reasonable stability of economic depreciation rates of decline may exist over time. Thus, the assumption of a constant rate of economic depreciation may be a reasonable approximation for further empirical economic analyses.

Economic Darwinism

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sloth, Birgitte; Whitta-Jacobsen, Hans Jørgen

2011-01-01

We define an evolutionary process of "economic Darwinism" for playing the field, symmetric games. The process captures two forces. One is "economic selection": if current behavior leads to payoff differences, behavior yielding lowest payoff has strictly positive probability of being replaced...... in the literature. Using this result, we demonstrate that generally under positive (negative) externalities, economic Darwinism implies even more under- (over-)activity than does Nash equilibrium....

Hypertension is associated with cognitive decline in elderly people at high risk for dementia.

Science.gov (United States)

Wysocki, Michael; Luo, Xiaodong; Schmeidler, James; Dahlman, Karen; Lesser, Gerson T; Grossman, Hillel; Haroutunian, Vahram; Beeri, Michal Schnaider

2012-02-01

Cardiovascular risk factors including hypertension (HTN) have been shown to increase the risk of Alzheimer disease. The current study investigated whether individuals with HTN are more susceptible to increased cognitive decline and whether the influence of HTN on cognitive decline varied as a function of dementia severity. A total of 224 nursing home and assisted living residents, with a mean age of 84.9 (±7.6) years, were assessed longitudinally with Mini Mental State Exams (MMSEs) and Clinical Dementia Ratings (CDR). Baseline dementia status was defined by the CDR score. As described in , MMSE scores in persons with HTN and questionable dementia (CDR = 0.5) declined significantly faster than nonhypertensive questionably demented persons. Hypertensive participants did not decline significantly faster than nonhypertensive participants in persons with intact cognition (CDR = 0) or frank dementia (CDR ≥ 1). These results suggest an increased risk of subsequent cognitive decline in hypertensive individuals who are especially vulnerable to developing dementia and raises the possibility that avoiding or controlling HTN might reduce the rate of cognitive decline in cognitively vulnerable individuals, potentially delaying their conversion to full-fledged dementia.

Economic Growth, Productivity, and Public Education Funding: Is South Carolina a Death Spiral State?

Science.gov (United States)

Driscoll, Lisa G.; Knoeppel, Robert C.; Della Sala, Matthew R.; Watson, Jim R.

2014-01-01

As a result of the Great Recession of 2007-2009, most states experienced declines in employment, consumer spending, and economic productivity (Alm, Buschman, and Sjoquist 2011). In turn, these events led to historic declines in state tax revenues (Mikesell and Mullins 2010; Boyd and Dadayan 2009), resulting in major cuts in public spending. Local…

Socio-Economic Differentials in Contraceptive Discontinuation in India

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kiran Agrahari

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Fertility divergence amid declining in use of modern contraception in many states of India needs urgent research and programmatic attention. Although utilization of antenatal, natal, and post-natal care has shown spectacular increase in post National Rural Health Mission (NRHM period, the contraceptive use had shown a declining trend. Using the calendar data from the National Family Health Survey–3, this article examines the reasons of contraceptive discontinuation among spacing method users by socio-economic groups in India. Bivariate and multivariate analyses and life table discontinuation rates are used in the analyses. Results suggest that about half of the pill users, two fifths of the condom users, one third of traditional method users, and one fifth of IUD users discontinue a method in first 12 months of use. However, the discontinuation of all three modern spacing methods declines in subsequent period (within 12-36 months. The probability of method failure was highest among traditional method users and higher among poor and less educated that may lead to unwanted/mistimed birth. Although discontinuation of condom declines with economic status, it does not show any large variation for pill users. The contraceptive discontinuation was significantly associated with duration of use, age, parity, contraceptive method, religion, and contraceptive intention. Based on these findings, it is suggested that follow-up services to modern spacing method users, increasing counseling for spacing method users, motivating the traditional method user to use modern spacing method, and improving the overall quality of family planning services can reduce the discontinuation of spacing method.

National and international capital shortages slowing, perhaps preventing, American economic growth and leading to a decline in the domestic standard of living

Science.gov (United States)

1975-01-01

It is shown that many of the basic industries that the U.S. has relied upon in the past for economic growth and development are now so obsolete, so old, and so technologically inferior to that of foreign competitors that the U.S. is losing its international competitive position. The most conservative estimate suggests that it will require $325 billion between now and 1982 merely to meet existing and currently anticipated pollution requirements and that it would take an additional $197 billion to replace outmoded existing facilities.

FISCAL POLICY AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN THE CURRENT FINANCIAL CRISIS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

VALENTIN SAVA

2012-05-01

Full Text Available Fiscal policies in the current era are the sovereign right of states to collect and administer taxes on national territory. In this respect, the European Union, which is an association of independent states, did not created an European tax - although many politicians proposing it - and within the Union is found important differences between the tax systems of member states. Due to historical and national different traditions, the EU member states have heterogeneous tax systems and revenue sharing systems because of different conceptions of public policies relative to the role of state in social and economic respective community’s life. The financing of public spending is usually considered the main function of taxation. In the original tradition following Locke1, property protection is the main functions of the state. As a result, the tax must correspond to the services rendered, that is to say, to pay the State for the protection of the rights it provides. Here we are at the origin of the doctrine of the benefit that there should be equivalence between the utility derived by the citizens of public services they consume and the "price" they pay tax.

Explaining the role of proximate determinants on fertility decline among poor and non-poor in Asian countries.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nabanita Majumder

Full Text Available We examined the overall contributions of the poor and non-poor in fertility decline across the Asian countries. Further, we analyzed the direct and indirect factors that determine the reproductive behaviour of two distinct population sub-groups.Data from several new rounds of DHS surveys are available over the past few years. The DHS provides cross-nationally comparable and useful data on fertility, family planning, maternal and child health along with the other information. Six selected Asian countries namely: Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Nepal, Philippines, and Vietnam are considered for the purpose of the study. Three rounds of DHS surveys for each country (except Vietnam are considered in the present study.Economic status is measured by computing a "wealth index", i.e. a composite indicator constructed by aggregating data on asset ownership and housing characteristics using principal components analysis (PCA. Computed household wealth index has been broken into three equal parts (33.3 percent each and the lowest and the highest 33.3 percent is considered as poor and non-poor respectively. The Bongaarts model was employed to quantify the contribution of each of the proximate determinants of fertility among poor and non-poor women.Fertility reduction across all population subgroups is now an established fact despite the diversity in the level of socio-economic development in Asian countries. It is clear from the analysis that fertility has declined irrespective of economic status at varying degrees within and across the countries which can be attributed to the increasing level of contraceptive use especially among poor women. Over the period of time changing marriage pattern and induced abortion are playing an important role in reducing fertility among poor women.Fertility decline among majority of the poor women across the Asian countries is accompanied by high prevalence of contraceptive use followed by changing marriage pattern and induced

A test of the economic base hypothesis in the small forest communities of southeast Alaska.

Science.gov (United States)

2003-01-01

Recent harvest declines in the Western United States have focused attention on the question of economic impacts at the community level. The impact of changing timber-related economic activity in a given community on other local activity and the general economic health of the community at large has been a persistent and often contentious issue in debates surrounding...

Economic Darwinism

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sloth, Birgitte; Whitta-Jacobsen, Hans Jørgen

We define an evolutionary process of “economic Darwinism” for playing-the-field, symmetric games. The process captures two forces. One is “economic selection”: if current behavior leads to payoff differences, behavior yielding lowest payoff has strictly positive probability of being replaced...... in the literature. Using this result, we demonstrate that generally under positive (negative) externalities, economic Darwinism implies even more under- (over-) activity than does Nash equilibrium...

How do Economic Crises Impact Firm Boundaries?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Foss, Kirsten

2010-01-01

How economic crises impact the boundaries of firms has been offered virtually no attention in the literature on the theory of the firm. I review the best-known theories of the firm and identify the variables that matter for the explanation of firm boundaries. I then examine how an economic crisis...... may impact these variables and change efficient firm boundaries. The various theories of the firm have difficulties explaining how firms efficiently adapt their boundaries to such prominent characteristics of economic crisis as declining demand and increased costs of external finance. However, all...... these theories stress uncertainty as an antecedent of firm organization, and as uncertainty is also an important characteristic of an economic crisis I examine how uncertainty is allowed to play out in the various theories in order to identify what predictions we can derive from the theory regarding changes...

The Philippine economic mystery

OpenAIRE

Robert H. Nelson

2007-01-01

The poor economic performance of the Philippines over the long term is a puzzle and an apparent anomaly for the region. The decline in the Philippines' global position from the first part of the 20th century is particularly striking when viewed against the backrdrop of rapid income gains in countries of East and Southeast Asia, countries the Philippines used to surpass in terms of physical and human capital. While there have been a number of attempts to explain the puzzle—difficult geography,...

Economic inequality predicts biodiversity loss.

Science.gov (United States)

Mikkelson, Gregory M; Gonzalez, Andrew; Peterson, Garry D

2007-05-16

Human activity is causing high rates of biodiversity loss. Yet, surprisingly little is known about the extent to which socioeconomic factors exacerbate or ameliorate our impacts on biological diversity. One such factor, economic inequality, has been shown to affect public health, and has been linked to environmental problems in general. We tested how strongly economic inequality is related to biodiversity loss in particular. We found that among countries, and among US states, the number of species that are threatened or declining increases substantially with the Gini ratio of income inequality. At both levels of analysis, the connection between income inequality and biodiversity loss persists after controlling for biophysical conditions, human population size, and per capita GDP or income. Future research should explore potential mechanisms behind this equality-biodiversity relationship. Our results suggest that economic reforms would go hand in hand with, if not serving as a prerequisite for, effective conservation.

IMPACT OF ECONOMIC CRISIS ON FDI

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Elena V. CHIRILA DONCIU

2014-04-01

Full Text Available The economic crisis has had a severe impact on the economy worldwide. The investment activity has strongly felt the crisis and caused dramatic changes in the hierarchy of large investors. The financial system did not have availability for credits and funding from companies' own resources was extremely limited in terms of reducing profits. The purpose of the paper is the analysis of global foreign direct investment under the effect of the largest financial and economic crisis. The research results show a dramatic decline in foreign direct investments flows perceived and generated in 2009, and the fact that since 2010 there has been an easy comeback.

Condensate recovery by cycling at declining pressures

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Havlena, Z G; Griffith, J D; Pot, R; Kiel, O G

1967-06-05

Cycling condensate reservoirs under conditions of declining pressure, rather than constant pressure, is advantageous from both a recovery and an economic standpoint. Wet gas displaced from the swept areas is recovered concurrently with wet gas recovered by gas expansion from the unswept portions of the reservoir. Any liquid condensed in the swept areas is revaporized by dry injection gas and recovered as an enriched gas. By this mode of operation, high condensate recovery is obtained, gas sales may be possible at an earlier stage of depletion, more flexibility in field and plant operations is feasible and reduction of 15% in investment and operating costs is achieved. Injection gas requirements are reduced by 40%. The Windfall reservoir in Canada has been successfully produced in this manner, starting in 1962. It is a typical retrograde type reservoir which in 1965 represented 15% of reservoirs exploited in North America.

The Current Business and Economics Driven Discourse and Education: Perspectives from Around the World

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Johannes L van der Walt

2017-05-01

Full Text Available This paper sets the tone for the 2017 BCES Conference in that it confronts the educators and educationists assembled at the opening ceremony with some of the manifestations of the current business and economics driven orientation to life in general and to education in particular. It demonstrates how and to what extent the neoliberal life-view or orientation has so far colonized the minds of educators and educationists and affected their occupational environment. The paper concludes with a brief critical discussion of neoliberal tenets and their effects on education based on professional pedagogical insight into the human being, societal relationships and education.

Wilderness recreation use: the current situation

Science.gov (United States)

Joseph W. Roggenbuck; Alan E. Watson

1989-01-01

The total amount of recreational use of the National Wilderness Preservation System is currently at about 14.5 million visitor days per annum. Trends indicate a stable or declining overall use; use on a per acre basis is declining. The common stereotype of the wilderness user as young, wealthy, urban, leisured, and a nonresident of the State or region is largely...

[Sexual and reproductive health and the economic crisis in Spain. SESPAS report 2014].

Science.gov (United States)

Larrañaga, Isabel; Martín, Unai; Bacigalupe, Amaia

2014-06-01

Sexual and reproductive health (SRH) is protected by the public authorities to ensure that people enjoy a free, satisfying, and safe sexual life. Despite the approval of the National Sexual and Reproductive Health Strategy in 2011, the progress achieved may be jeopardized by recent proposals for legislative changes affecting this area (abortion Law and 16/2012 Law) and by the impact of the current economic crisis. This article aims to describe the current situation of sexual and reproductive health in the Spanish population and to identify the potential impact of the economic crisis. To this end, we used the following information sources: the National Sexual Health Survey, the DAPHNE surveys, births and fetal deaths statistics from the Spanish National Institute of Statistics, the Registry of Voluntary Pregnancy Interruptions, reports from the National Epidemiology Center, and the National AIDS Registry. Sexual health and the availability of information are rated as good by the Spanish population. Among young people, schools and health services have become less important as information sources and the internet has become more important. Since the beginning of the crisis, contraceptive use and fertility have declined and maternity has been delayed. The economic crisis seems to have affected some indicators of sexual and reproductive health. However, the potential effects on other indicators should continue to be monitored because insufficient time may have passed for accurate determination of the full effect of the crisis. Copyright © 2013 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Anticipating ocean acidification's economic consequences for commercial fisheries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cooley, Sarah R; Doney, Scott C

2009-01-01

Ocean acidification, a consequence of rising anthropogenic CO 2 emissions, is poised to change marine ecosystems profoundly by increasing dissolved CO 2 and decreasing ocean pH, carbonate ion concentration, and calcium carbonate mineral saturation state worldwide. These conditions hinder growth of calcium carbonate shells and skeletons by many marine plants and animals. The first direct impact on humans may be through declining harvests and fishery revenues from shellfish, their predators, and coral reef habitats. In a case study of US commercial fishery revenues, we begin to constrain the economic effects of ocean acidification over the next 50 years using atmospheric CO 2 trajectories and laboratory studies of its effects, focusing especially on mollusks. In 2007, the $3.8 billion US annual domestic ex-vessel commercial harvest ultimately contributed $34 billion to the US gross national product. Mollusks contributed 19%, or $748 million, of the ex-vessel revenues that year. Substantial revenue declines, job losses, and indirect economic costs may occur if ocean acidification broadly damages marine habitats, alters marine resource availability, and disrupts other ecosystem services. We review the implications for marine resource management and propose possible adaptation strategies designed to support fisheries and marine-resource-dependent communities, many of which already possess little economic resilience.

ASEAN: perspectives on economic integration: ASEAN in Asia economic integration

OpenAIRE

Shaobang Kang

2009-01-01

Asia is one continent which has the most dynamic and the fastest developing economies in the world. But Asia’s economic integration is developing too slowly and stands at the lowest level in the world. Many factors have affected Asia’s economic integration but, in the current global financial and economic crisis, it is necessary to strengthen Asian countries’ cooperation in finance, investment and trade to promote Asia’s economic integration. As the healthiest and most integrated regional org...

Drivers and moderators of business decline

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marius Pretorius

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Purpose: Reports of business failure elicit various reactions, while research in this domain often appears to be limited by a lack of access to information about failure and by the negativity that surrounds it. Those who have experienced failure do not readily talk about it, or they disappear from the radar screen of researchers. Yet failure is preceded by decline which, when focused on strategically, can reduce eventual failures if early action is taken. The main purpose of this study is to develop a conceptual framework or typology of the drivers and moderators of business decline. Design/methodology/approach: After applying the "grounded theory" approach to the academic literature on decline and failure, a conceptual framework for the variables that drive and moderate business decline is proposed. Findings: The study proposes that decline has three core drivers, three peripheral drivers and four moderators. The core drivers identified are: resource munificence; leadership as origin; and causality (strategic versus operational origin of decline. The three peripheral drivers are: unique preconditions; continuous decisions impact; and extremes dichotomy. The study describes four moderators of the drivers: life cycle stage; stakeholder perspective; quantitative versus qualitative nature of signs and causes; and finally the age and size effects. Research limitations/implications: The proposed conceptual framework is based on literature only, although it has found support during discussions with practitioners. It is proposed to readers of this journal for scrutiny and validation. Practical implications: Strategists need to understand what drives decline in order to act timeously; practitioners who have an insight into the moderators with their impacts could make better decisions in response to decline in organisations and possibly avoid business failure. Originality/Value: Understanding business decline is still a huge theoretical challenge, which

Effects of economics and demographics on global fisheries sustainability.

Science.gov (United States)

Ding, Qi; Wang, Yali; Chen, Xinjun; Chen, Yong

2017-08-01

A good understanding of social factors that lead to marine ecological change is important to developing sustainable global fisheries. We used balanced panel models and conducted cross-national time-series analyses (1970-2010) of 122 nations to examine how economic prosperity and population growth affected the sustainability of marine ecosystems. We used catches in economic exclusive zone (EEZ); mean trophic level of fishery landings (MTL); primary production required to sustain catches (expressed as percentage of local primary production [%PPR]); and an index of ecosystem overfishing (i.e., the loss in secondary production index [L index]) as indicators of ecological change in marine ecosystems. The EEZ catch, %PPR, and L index declined gradually after gross domestic product (GDP) per capita reached $15,000, $14,000, and $19,000, respectively, and MTL increased steadily once GDP per capita exceeded $20,000. These relationships suggest that economic growth and biodiversity conservation are compatible goals. However, increasing human populations would degrade marine ecosystems. Specifically, a doubling of human population caused an increase in the %PPR of 17.1% and in the L index of 0.0254 and a decline in the MTL of 0.176. A 1% increase in human population resulted in a 0.744% increase in EEZ catch. These results highlight the importance of considering social and economic factors in developing sustainable fisheries management policy. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Americans misperceive racial economic equality.

Science.gov (United States)

Kraus, Michael W; Rucker, Julian M; Richeson, Jennifer A

2017-09-26

The present research documents the widespread misperception of race-based economic equality in the United States. Across four studies ( n = 1,377) sampling White and Black Americans from the top and bottom of the national income distribution, participants overestimated progress toward Black-White economic equality, largely driven by estimates of greater current equality than actually exists according to national statistics. Overestimates of current levels of racial economic equality, on average, outstripped reality by roughly 25% and were predicted by greater belief in a just world and social network racial diversity (among Black participants). Whereas high-income White respondents tended to overestimate racial economic equality in the past, Black respondents, on average, underestimated the degree of past racial economic equality. Two follow-up experiments further revealed that making societal racial discrimination salient increased the accuracy of Whites' estimates of Black-White economic equality, whereas encouraging Whites to anchor their estimates on their own circumstances increased their tendency to overestimate current racial economic equality. Overall, these findings suggest a profound misperception of and unfounded optimism regarding societal race-based economic equality-a misperception that is likely to have any number of important policy implications.

Forest decline through radioactivity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reichelt, G.; Kollert, R.

1985-01-01

Is more serious damage of forest observed in the vicinity of nuclear reactors. How are those decline patterns to be explained. Does the combined effect of radioactivity and different air pollutants (such as nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, oxidants etc.) have an influence in the decline of the forest. In what way do synergisms, i.e. mutually enhanced effects, participate. How does natural and artificial radioactivity affect the chemistry of air in the polluted atmosphere. What does this mean for the extension of nuclear energy, especially for the reprocessing plant planned. Damage in the forests near nuclear and industrial plants was mapped and the resulting hypotheses on possible emittors were statistically verified. Quantitative calculations as to the connection between nuclear energy and forest decline were carried through: they demand action. (orig./HP) [de

Economic considerations for bariatric surgery and morbid obesity

Science.gov (United States)

Frezza, Eldo E; Wacthell, Mitchell; Ewing, Bradley

2009-01-01

The obesity epidemic is also an economic tragedy. This analysis evaluates the economic effects and the potential to improve the well-being of both individual and societal wealth. Econometric techniques should carefully assess the degree to which obesity affects declines in business output, employment, income, and tax revenues at the regional and national levels. Microeconomics assesses lost productivity and associated wages and profit. Macroeconomics assesses trends associated with employment, inflation, interest rates, money supply, and output. To decrease the adverse economic consequences of the obesity epidemic, policy makers must emphasize bariatric surgery as a cost-effective option for qualified patients. Early intervention, education, and tax rebates for obese individuals who undergo bariatric surgery and for medical centers and doctors would likely have positive economic effects on the whole economy in a few years. PMID:21935309

Economic considerations for bariatric surgery and morbid obesity.

Science.gov (United States)

Frezza, Eldo E; Wacthell, Mitchell; Ewing, Bradley

2009-01-01

The obesity epidemic is also an economic tragedy. This analysis evaluates the economic effects and the potential to improve the well-being of both individual and societal wealth. Econometric techniques should carefully assess the degree to which obesity affects declines in business output, employment, income, and tax revenues at the regional and national levels. Microeconomics assesses lost productivity and associated wages and profit. Macroeconomics assesses trends associated with employment, inflation, interest rates, money supply, and output. To decrease the adverse economic consequences of the obesity epidemic, policy makers must emphasize bariatric surgery as a cost-effective option for qualified patients. Early intervention, education, and tax rebates for obese individuals who undergo bariatric surgery and for medical centers and doctors would likely have positive economic effects on the whole economy in a few years.

The role of energy in economic growth.

Science.gov (United States)

Stern, David I

2011-02-01

This paper reviews the mainstream, resource economics, and ecological economics models of growth. A possible synthesis of energy-based and mainstream models is presented. This shows that when energy is scarce it imposes a strong constraint on the growth of the economy; however, when energy is abundant, its effect on economic growth is much reduced. The industrial revolution released the constraints on economic growth by the development of new methods of using coal and the discovery of new fossil fuel resources. Time-series analysis shows that energy and GDP cointegrate, and energy use Granger causes GDP when capital and other production inputs are included in the vector autoregression model. However, various mechanisms can weaken the links between energy and growth. Energy used per unit of economic output has declined in developed and some developing countries, owing to both technological change and a shift from poorer quality fuels, such as coal, to the use of higher quality fuels, especially electricity. Substitution of other inputs for energy and sectoral shifts in economic activity play smaller roles. © 2011 New York Academy of Sciences.

CURRENT ECONOMIC AND MEDICAL REFORMS IN THE ROMANIAN HEALTH CARE SYSTEM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dragoi Mihaela Cristina

2011-12-01

Full Text Available The issue of health has always been, both in social reality and in academia and research, a sensitive topic considering the relationship each individual has with his own health and the health care system as a public policy. At public opinion levels and not only, health care is the most important sector demanding the outmost attention, considering that individual health is the fundamental prerequisite for well-being, happiness and a satisfying life. The ever present research and practical question is on the optimal financing of the health care system. Any answer to this question is also a political decision, reflecting the social-economic value of health for a particular country. The size of the resource pool and the criteria and methods for resource allocation are the central economic problems for any health system. This paper takes into consideration the limited resources of the national health care system (the rationalization of health services, the common methods of health financing, the specificity of health services market (the health market being highly asymmetric, with health professionals knowing most if not all of the relevant information, such as diagnosis, treatment options and costs and consumers fully dependent on the information provided in each case and the performance of all hospitals in Romania, in order to assess the latest strategic decisions (introduction of co-payment and merging and reconversion of hospitals taken within the Romanian health care system and their social and economic implications. The main finding show that, even though the intention of reforming and transforming the Romanian health care system into a more efficient one is obvious, the lack of economic and demographic analysis may results into greater discrepancies nationwide. This paper is aimed to renew the necessity of joint collaboration between the economic and medical field, since the relationship between health and economic development runs both ways

Mobility decline in old age

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rantakokko, Merja; Mänty, Minna Regina; Rantanen, Taina

2013-01-01

Mobility is important for community independence. With increasing age, underlying pathologies, genetic vulnerabilities, physiological and sensory impairments, and environmental barriers increase the risk for mobility decline. Understanding how mobility declines is paramount to finding ways...... to promote mobility in old age....

The burden of migraine in the United States: current and emerging perspectives on disease management and economic analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Hazard, Elisabeth; Munakata, Julie; Bigal, Marcelo E; Rupnow, Marcia F T; Lipton, Richard B

2009-01-01

Migraine is often perceived as a low-impact condition that imposes a limited burden to society and the health-care system. This study reviews the current understanding of the burden of migraine in the U.S., the history of economic understanding of migraine treatment and identifies emergent trends for future studies evaluating clinical and economic outcomes of migraine treatment. This study traced the history of economic articles published on migraine by performing a literature search using PubMed MEDLINE database and ancestral searches of relevant articles. The intention was not to provide an exhaustive review of every article or adjudicate between studies with different findings. Migraine affects millions of individuals worldwide, generally during the most productive years of a person's life. Studies show that migraineurs are underdiagnosed, undertreated, and experience substantial decreases in functioning and productivity, which in turn translates into diminished quality of life for individuals, and financial burdens to both health-care systems and employers. Economic evaluations of migraine therapies have evolved with new clinical developments beginning with cognitive-behavioral therapy, introduction of triptans, concern over medication overuse, and emergence of migraine prophylaxis. Now recent clinical studies suggest that migraine may be a progressive disease with cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and long-term neurologic effects. Migraine imposes a substantial burden on patients, families, employers and societies. The economic standards by which migraine and treatment are evaluated have evolved in response to clinical developments. Emerging evidence suggests that migraine is a chronic and progressive disease. If confirmed, approaches to acute and prophylactic treatments and economic evaluations of migraine treatment may require major reconsideration.

Recessions and seniors' health, health behaviors, and healthcare use: analysis of the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey.

Science.gov (United States)

McInerney, Melissa; Mellor, Jennifer M

2012-09-01

A number of studies report that U.S. state mortality rates, particularly for the elderly, decline during economic downturns. Further, several prior studies use microdata to show that as state unemployment rates rise, physical health improves, unhealthy behaviors decrease, and medical care use declines. We use data on elderly mortality rates and data from the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey from a time period that encompasses the start of the Great Recession. We find that elderly mortality is countercyclical during most of the 1994-2008 period. Further, as unemployment rates rise, seniors report worse mental health and are no more likely to engage in healthier behaviors. We find suggestive evidence that inpatient utilization increases perhaps because of an increased physician willingness to accept Medicare patients. Our findings suggest that either elderly individuals respond differently to recessions than do working age adults, or that the relationship between unemployment and health has changed. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Endemic chronic wasting disease causes mule deer population decline in Wyoming.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Melia T DeVivo

Full Text Available Chronic wasting disease (CWD is a fatal transmissible spongiform encephalopathy affecting white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus, mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus, Rocky Mountain elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni, and moose (Alces alces shirasi in North America. In southeastern Wyoming average annual CWD prevalence in mule deer exceeds 20% and appears to contribute to regional population declines. We determined the effect of CWD on mule deer demography using age-specific, female-only, CWD transition matrix models to estimate the population growth rate (λ. Mule deer were captured from 2010-2014 in southern Converse County Wyoming, USA. Captured adult (≥ 1.5 years old deer were tested ante-mortem for CWD using tonsil biopsies and monitored using radio telemetry. Mean annual survival rates of CWD-negative and CWD-positive deer were 0.76 and 0.32, respectively. Pregnancy and fawn recruitment were not observed to be influenced by CWD. We estimated λ = 0.79, indicating an annual population decline of 21% under current CWD prevalence levels. A model derived from the demography of only CWD-negative individuals yielded; λ = 1.00, indicating a stable population if CWD were absent. These findings support CWD as a significant contributor to mule deer population decline. Chronic wasting disease is difficult or impossible to eradicate with current tools, given significant environmental contamination, and at present our best recommendation for control of this disease is to minimize spread to new areas and naïve cervid populations.

Endemic chronic wasting disease causes mule deer population decline in Wyoming

Science.gov (United States)

DeVivo, Melia T.; Edmunds, David R.; Kauffman, Matthew J.; Schumaker, Brant A.; Binfet, Justin; Kreeger, Terry J.; Richards, Bryan J.; Schatzl, Hermann M.; Cornish, Todd

2017-01-01

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a fatal transmissible spongiform encephalopathy affecting white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), Rocky Mountain elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni), and moose (Alces alces shirasi) in North America. In southeastern Wyoming average annual CWD prevalence in mule deer exceeds 20% and appears to contribute to regional population declines. We determined the effect of CWD on mule deer demography using age-specific, female-only, CWD transition matrix models to estimate the population growth rate (λ). Mule deer were captured from 2010–2014 in southern Converse County Wyoming, USA. Captured adult (≥ 1.5 years old) deer were tested ante-mortem for CWD using tonsil biopsies and monitored using radio telemetry. Mean annual survival rates of CWD-negative and CWD-positive deer were 0.76 and 0.32, respectively. Pregnancy and fawn recruitment were not observed to be influenced by CWD. We estimated λ= 0.79, indicating an annual population decline of 21% under current CWD prevalence levels. A model derived from the demography of only CWD-negative individuals yielded; λ = 1.00, indicating a stable population if CWD were absent. These findings support CWD as a significant contributor to mule deer population decline. Chronic wasting disease is difficult or impossible to eradicate with current tools, given significant environmental contamination, and at present our best recommendation for control of this disease is to minimize spread to new areas and naïve cervid populations.

Risks of rapid decline renal function in patients with type 2 diabetes

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Yi-Jing; Sheen; Wayne; HH; Sheu

2014-01-01

Progressive rising population of diabetes and related nephropathy, namely, diabetic kidney disease and associated end stage renal disease has become a major global public health issue. Results of observational studies indicate that most diabetic kidney disease progresses over decades; however, certain diabetes patients display a rapid decline in renal function, which may lead to renal failure within months. Although the definition of rapid renal function decline remained speculative, in general,it is defined by the decrease of estimated glomerular filtration rate(e GFR) in absolute rate of loss or percent change. Based on the Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes 2012 clinical practice guidelines, a rapid decline in renal function is defined as a sustained declinein e GFR of > 5 m L/min per 1.73 m2 per year. It has been reported that potential factors contributing to a rapid decline in renal function include ethnic/genetic and demographic causes, smoking habits, increased glycated hemoglobin levels, obesity, albuminuria, anemia, low serum magnesium levels, high serum phosphate levels, vitamin D deficiency, elevated systolic blood pressure, pulse pressure, brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity values, retinopathy, and cardiac autonomic neuropathy. This article reviews current literatures in this area and provides insight on the early detection of diabetic subjects who are at risk of a rapid decline in renal function in order to develop a more aggressive approach to renal and cardiovascular protection.

Health economic choices in old age: interdisciplinary perspectives on economic decisions and the aging mind.

Science.gov (United States)

Nielsen, Lisbeth; Phillips, John W R

2008-01-01

This chapter offers an integrative review of psychological and neurobiological differences between younger and older adults that might impact economic behavior. Focusing on key health economic challenges facing the elderly, it offers perspectives on how these psychological and neurobiological factors may influence decision-making over the life course and considers future interdisciplinary research directions. We review relevant literature from three domains that are essential for developing a comprehensive science of decision-making and economic behavior in aging (psychology, neuroscience, and economics), consider implications for prescription drug coverage and long-term care (LTC) insurance, and highlight future research directions. Older adults face many complex economic decisions that directly affect their health and well-being, including LTC insurance, prescription drug plans, and end of life care. Economic research suggests that many older Americans are not making cost-effective and economically rational decisions. While economic models provide insight into some of the financial incentives associated with these decisions, they typically do not consider the roles of cognition and affect in decision-making. Research has established that older age is associated with predictable declines in many cognitive functions and evidence is accumulating that distinct social motives and affect-processing profiles emerge in older age. It is unknown how these age differences impact the economic behaviors of older people and implies opportunities for path-breaking interdisciplinary research. Our chapter looks to develop interdisciplinary research to better understand the causes and consequences of age-related changes in economic decision-making and guide interventions to improve public programs and overall social welfare.

Functional range of movement of the hand: declination angles to reachable space.

Science.gov (United States)

Pham, Hai Trieu; Pathirana, Pubudu N; Caelli, Terry

2014-01-01

The measurement of the range of hand joint movement is an essential part of clinical practice and rehabilitation. Current methods use three finger joint declination angles of the metacarpophalangeal, proximal interphalangeal and distal interphalangeal joints. In this paper we propose an alternate form of measurement for the finger movement. Using the notion of reachable space instead of declination angles has significant advantages. Firstly, it provides a visual and quantifiable method that therapists, insurance companies and patients can easily use to understand the functional capabilities of the hand. Secondly, it eliminates the redundant declination angle constraints. Finally, reachable space, defined by a set of reachable fingertip positions, can be measured and constructed by using a modern camera such as Creative Senz3D or built-in hand gesture sensors such as the Leap Motion Controller. Use of cameras or optical-type sensors for this purpose have considerable benefits such as eliminating and minimal involvement of therapist errors, non-contact measurement in addition to valuable time saving for the clinician. A comparison between using declination angles and reachable space were made based on Hume's experiment on functional range of movement to prove the efficiency of this new approach.

Long-term trends in midwestern milkweed abundances and their relevance to monarch butterfly declines

Science.gov (United States)

Zaya, David N.; Pearse, Ian; Spyreas, Gregory

2017-01-01

Declines in monarch butterfly populations have prompted investigation into the sensitivity of their milkweed host plants to land-use change. Documented declines in milkweed abundance in croplands have spurred efforts to promote milkweeds in other habitats. Nevertheless, our current understanding of milkweed populations is poor. We used a long-term plant survey from Illinois to evaluate whether trends in milkweed abundance have caused monarch decline and to highlight the habitat-management practices that promote milkweeds. Milkweed abundance in natural areas has not declined precipitously, although when croplands are considered, changes in agricultural weed management have led to a 68% loss of milkweed available for monarchs across the region. Midsuccessional plant communities with few invasive species provide optimal milkweed habitat. The augmentation of natural areas and the management of existing grasslands, such as less frequent mowing and woody- and exotic-species control, may replace some of the milkweed that has been lost from croplands.

Declining Segregation of Same-Sex Partners: Evidence from Census 2000 and 2010

Science.gov (United States)

2013-01-01

Despite recent media and scholarly attention describing the “disappearance” of traditionally gay neighborhoods, urban scholars have yet to quantify the segregation of same-sex partners and determine whether declining segregation from different-sex partners is a wide-spread trend. Focusing on the 100 most populous places in the United States, I use data from the 2000 and 2010 Decennial Census to examine the segregation of same-sex partners over time and its place-level correlates. I estimate linear regression models to examine the role of four place characteristics in particular: average levels of education, aggregate trends in the family life cycle of same-sex partners, violence and social hostility motivated by sexual orientation bias, and representation of same-sex partners in the overall population. On average, same-sex partners were less segregated from different-sex partners in 2010 than in 2000, and the vast majority of same-sex partners lived in environments of declining segregation. Segregation was lower and declined more rapidly in places that had a greater percentage of graduate degree holders. In addition, segregation of female partners was lower in places that had a greater share of female partner households with children. These findings suggest that sexual orientation should be considered alongside economic status, race, and ethnicity as an important factor that contributes to neighborhood differentiation and urban spatial inequality. PMID:24187412

Threats to the National Economic Security of Ukraine at the Current Stage

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Kuharskaya Natalia A.

2017-04-01

Full Text Available It is substantiated that the most important factor of the national economic security of the country is to match both the economic and the industrial relations systems to the economic development of the country. The article provides detailed consideration of the particularities of occurrence of threats to the national economic security of Ukraine by allocating seven major structural blocks, in which threats were not overcome during the years of independence, and some of them even became intensified: 1 institutional sphere; 2 social sphere; 3 financial sphere; 4 shadowing and corruptness of economy; 5 a high level of physical wear and tear of fixed assets and of the production infrastructure; 6 de-industrialization of economy; 7 innovative development. The main components of the national economic security, which would assist in overcoming these threats, have been developed.

ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS VS ECONOMIC(AL ECOLOGY

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G. Kharlamova

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Currently world faces the dilemma – ecological economy or economic(al ecology. The researchers produce hundreds of surveys on the topic. However the analyses of recent most cited simulations had shown the diversity of results. Thus, for some states the Kuznets environmental curve has place, for others – no. Same could be said about different years for the same state. It provokes the necessity of drawing new group analyses to reveal the tendencies and relationships between economic and environmental factors. Most flexible and mirror factor of environmental sustainability is the volume of CO2 emissions. The econometric analysis was used for detecting the economic impact on this indicator at the global level and in the spectra of group of states depending on their income. The hypothesis of the existence of environmental Kuznets curve for the analysed data is rejected. Real GDP per capita impact on carbon dioxide emissions is considered only at the global level. The impact of openness of the economy is weak. Rejection happened also to the hypothesis that for the developed countries there is a reverse dependence between the environmental pollution and economic openness. Indicator “energy consumption per capita” impacts on greenhouse gas emissions only in countries with high income. Whereby it should be noted that the more developed a country is, the more elastic is this influence. These results have a potential usage for environmental policy regulation and climate strategy.

Accelerated decline in lung function in smoking women with airway obstruction: SAPALDIA 2 cohort study

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Zemp Elisabeth

2005-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The aim was to determine if effects from smoking on lung function measured over 11 years differ between men and women. Methods In a prospective population based cohort study (Swiss Study on Air Pollution and Lung Diseases in Adults current smokers in 1991 (18 – 60 yrs were reassessed in 2002 (n = 1792. Multiple linear regression was used to estimate effects from pack-years of cigarettes smoked to 1991 and mean packs of cigarettes smoked per day between 1991 and 2002 on change in lung volume and flows over the 11 years. Results In both sexes, packs smoked between assessments were related to lung function decline but pack-years smoked before 1991 were not. Mean annual decline in FEV1 was -10.4 mL(95%CI -15.3, -5.5 per pack per day between assessments in men and -13.8 mL(95%CI-19.5,-8.1 in women. Decline per pack per day between 1991 and 2002 was lower in women who smoked in 1991 but quit before 2002 compared to persistent smokers (-6.4 vs -11.6 mL, p = 0.05 but this was not seen in men (-14.3 vs -8.8 mL p = 0.49. Smoking related decline was accelerated in men and women with airway obstruction, particularly in women where decline in FEV1 was three fold higher in participants with FEV1/FVC Conclusion There are differences in effects from smoking on lung function between men and women. Lung function recovers faster in women quitters than in men. Women current smokers with airway obstruction experience a greater smoking related decline in lung function than men.

Ekonomiczne i spoleczne nastepstwa globalizacji/Economic and Social Consequences of Globalisation

OpenAIRE

Bartlomiej Kaczmarek

2014-01-01

The subject of this article in an analysis of the globalisation process in economic and social areas. The author describes the main spheres of globalisation such as economic and political integration, the declining role of nation states, cultural homogenisation and the increasing significance of transnational corporations. The advantages and disadvantages of globalisation are discussed. The author also indicates differences between regions that benefit from globalisation. The article tries to...

China's energy consumption under the global economic crisis: Decomposition and sectoral analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, Fangyi; Song, Zhouying; Liu, Weidong

2014-01-01

It is now widely recognized that there is a strong relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. Most countries′ energy demands declined during the economic depression of 2008–2009 when a worldwide economic crisis occurred. As an export-oriented economy, China suffered a serious exports decline in the course of the crisis. However, it was found that energy consumption continued to increase. Against such a background, this paper aims to assess and explain the factors causing the growth of energy consumption in China. First, we will explain the impact of domestic final use and international trade on energy consumption by using decomposition analysis. Second, embodied energy and its variation across sectors are quantified to identify the key sectors contributing to the growth. Lastly, the policy implications for long-term energy conservation are discussed. The results show that the decline in exports was one of the driving forces for energy consumption reduction in the crisis, but that the growth of domestic demand in manufacturing and construction, largely stimulated by economic stimulus plans, had the opposite effect on energy consumption. International trade contributed to decreasing energy consumption of China during and after the crisis because the structure of exports and imports changed in this period. - Highlights: • We analyze the reasons for China's energy consumption change under the global economic crisis during 2007–2010. • Domestic final use growth, especially in construction and manufacturing of machinery and equipment, resulted in energy consumption increase. • International trade is identified as a driver of energy consumption reduction during and after the crisis. • Increasing China's share of consumption or reducing its share of investment in the GDP can reduce national energy intensity

Economic inequality predicts biodiversity loss.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gregory M Mikkelson

Full Text Available Human activity is causing high rates of biodiversity loss. Yet, surprisingly little is known about the extent to which socioeconomic factors exacerbate or ameliorate our impacts on biological diversity. One such factor, economic inequality, has been shown to affect public health, and has been linked to environmental problems in general. We tested how strongly economic inequality is related to biodiversity loss in particular. We found that among countries, and among US states, the number of species that are threatened or declining increases substantially with the Gini ratio of income inequality. At both levels of analysis, the connection between income inequality and biodiversity loss persists after controlling for biophysical conditions, human population size, and per capita GDP or income. Future research should explore potential mechanisms behind this equality-biodiversity relationship. Our results suggest that economic reforms would go hand in hand with, if not serving as a prerequisite for, effective conservation.

Chlamydia sequelae cost estimates used in current economic evaluations: does one-size-fit-all?

Science.gov (United States)

Ong, Koh Jun; Soldan, Kate; Jit, Mark; Dunbar, J Kevin; Woodhall, Sarah C

2017-02-01

Current evidence suggests that chlamydia screening programmes can be cost-effective, conditional on assumptions within mathematical models. We explored differences in cost estimates used in published economic evaluations of chlamydia screening from seven countries (four papers each from UK and the Netherlands, two each from Sweden and Australia, and one each from Ireland, Canada and Denmark). From these studies, we extracted management cost estimates for seven major chlamydia sequelae. In order to compare the influence of different sequelae considered in each paper and their corresponding management costs on the total cost per case of untreated chlamydia, we applied reported unit sequelae management costs considered in each paper to a set of untreated infection to sequela progression probabilities. All costs were adjusted to 2013/2014 Great British Pound (GBP) values. Sequelae management costs ranged from £171 to £3635 (pelvic inflammatory disease); £953 to £3615 (ectopic pregnancy); £546 to £6752 (tubal factor infertility); £159 to £3341 (chronic pelvic pain); £22 to £1008 (epididymitis); £11 to £1459 (neonatal conjunctivitis) and £433 to £3992 (neonatal pneumonia). Total cost of sequelae per case of untreated chlamydia ranged from £37 to £412. There was substantial variation in cost per case of chlamydia sequelae used in published chlamydia screening economic evaluations, which likely arose from different assumptions about disease management pathways and the country perspectives taken. In light of this, when interpreting these studies, the reader should be satisfied that the cost estimates used sufficiently reflect the perspective taken and current disease management for their respective context. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Economic and demographic outlook

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Darby, P.M.

1995-01-01

Economic forecasts were produced and past trends were examined. Information was presented as a series of figures only, without accompanying text. Information provided included current exchange rates, economic growth, interest rates, housing starts, unemployment rates, personal savings rates and other economic indicators. 40 figs

Economic growth and obesity in South African adults: an ecological analysis between 1994 and 2014.

Science.gov (United States)

Pisa, Pedro T; Pisa, Noleen M

2017-06-01

To assess the trend associations between South Africa's economic growth using various economic growth indicators (EGIs) with adult obesity prevalence over a specified period of time. Data for obesity levels reported were obtained from national surveys conducted in South African adults in 1998, 2003 and 2012. EGIs incorporated in the current analysis were obtained from the World Bank and IHS Global insight databases. Obesity prevalence is presented by gender, urbanisation level and ethnicity. EGIs congruent to the time points where obesity data are available are presented. Unadjusted time trend plots were applied to assess associations between obesity prevalence and EGIs by gender, urbanisation level and ethnicity. Females present higher levels of obesity relative to males for all time points. For both males and females, an overall increase in prevalence was observed in both rural and urban settings over-time, with urban dwellers presenting higher obesity levels. An overall increase in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita and Household Final Consumption Expenditure (HFCE) per capita was observed. The Gini coefficient for all ethnicities except the White population increased between 1998 and 2003 but declined by 2012. Overtime per capita GDP and HFCE increased with increasing obesity prevalence in both genders. The trend association between the Gini coefficient for all ethnicities and obesity prevalence was similar for both genders in that as the Gini coefficient increased obesity prevalence declined, and when the coefficient decreased obesity prevalence increased. Trend associations exist between South Africa's economic growth and adult obesity. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

Migration and health: a study of effects of early life experiences and current socio-economic situation on mortality of immigrants in Sweden.

OpenAIRE

Klinthäll, Martin; Lindström, Martin

2011-01-01

Objectives. Previous research has demonstrated mortality differences between immigrants and natives living in Sweden. The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of early life conditions in the country of birth and current socio-economic conditions in adult life in Sweden on cardiovascular, cancer, all other cause and total mortality among immigrants and natives in Sweden. Design. The cohort data concerning individual demographic characteristics and socio-economic conditions stems fro...

Losing a jewel—Rapid declines in Myanmar’s intact forests from 2002-2014

Science.gov (United States)

Horning, Ned; Khaing, Thiri; Thein, Zaw Min; Aung, Kyaw Moe; Aung, Kyaw Htet; Phyo, Paing; Tun, Ye Lin; Oo, Aung Htat; Neil, Anthony; Thu, Win Myo; Songer, Melissa; Huang, Qiongyu; Connette, Grant; Leimgruber, Peter

2017-01-01

New and rapid political and economic changes in Myanmar are increasing the pressures on the country’s forests. Yet, little is known about the past and current condition of these forests and how fast they are declining. We mapped forest cover in Myanmar through a consortium of international organizations and environmental non-governmental groups, using freely-available public domain data and open source software tools. We used Landsat satellite imagery to assess the condition and spatial distribution of Myanmar’s intact and degraded forests with special focus on changes in intact forest between 2002 and 2014. We found that forests cover 42,365,729 ha or 63% of Myanmar, making it one of the most forested countries in the region. However, severe logging, expanding plantations, and degradation pose increasing threats. Only 38% of the country’s forests can be considered intact with canopy cover >80%. Between 2002 and 2014, intact forests declined at a rate of 0.94% annually, totaling more than 2 million ha forest loss. Losses can be extremely high locally and we identified 9 townships as forest conversion hotspots. We also delineated 13 large (>100,000 ha) and contiguous intact forest landscapes, which are dispersed across Myanmar. The Northern Forest Complex supports four of these landscapes, totaling over 6.1 million ha of intact forest, followed by the Southern Forest Complex with three landscapes, comprising 1.5 million ha. These remaining contiguous forest landscape should have high priority for protection. Our project demonstrates how open source data and software can be used to develop and share critical information on forests when such data are not readily available elsewhere. We provide all data, code, and outputs freely via the internet at (for scripts: https://bitbucket.org/rsbiodiv/; for the data: http://geonode.themimu.info/layers/geonode%3Amyan_lvl2_smoothed_dec2015_resamp) PMID:28520726

The legacy of slavery and contemporary declines in heart disease mortality in the U.S. South.

Science.gov (United States)

Kramer, Michael R; Black, Nyesha C; Matthews, Stephen A; James, Sherman A

2017-12-01

This study aims to characterize the role of county-specific legacy of slavery in patterning temporal (i.e., 1968-2014), and geographic (i.e., Southern counties) declines in heart disease mortality. In this context, the U.S. has witnessed dramatic declines in heart disease mortality since the 1960's, which have benefitted place and race groups unevenly, with slower declines in the South, especially for the Black population. Age-adjusted race- and county-specific mortality rates from 1968-2014 for all diseases of the heart were calculated for all Southern U.S. counties. Candidate confounding and mediating covariates from 1860, 1930, and 1970, were combined with mortality data in multivariable regression models to estimate the ecological association between the concentration of slavery in1860 and declines in heart disease mortality from 1968-2014. Black populations, in counties with a history of highest versus lowest concentration of slavery, experienced a 17% slower decline in heart disease mortality. The association for Black populations varied by region (stronger in Deep South than Upper South states) and was partially explained by intervening socioeconomic factors. In models accounting for spatial autocorrelation, there was no association between slave concentration and heart disease mortality decline for Whites. Nearly 50 years of declining heart disease mortality is a major public health success, but one marked by uneven progress by place and race. At the county level, progress in heart disease mortality reduction among Blacks is associated with place-based historical legacy of slavery. Effective and equitable public health prevention efforts should consider the historical context of place and the social and economic institutions that may play a role in facilitating or impeding diffusion of prevention efforts thereby producing heart healthy places and populations. Graphical abstract.

Economics of Russian oil production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gubenko, I.

1993-01-01

The main technical indicators of oil production in Russia are presented from the year 1988, when the current decline in oil production started. In 1992, only 9 new oil deposits were put into production, and average well productivity dropped to 12.4 tonnes/d. The number of idle wells reached 31,934 as compared to 8,714 in 1988. The share of low productivity deposits in 1993 was 49.7%. In the first five months of 1993, the number of new wells put into operation failed to offset the shutdown of old wells. Although the number of workovers grew by 32%, this work was insufficient to stabilize oil production. The decline in production is due to the general state of economic stability and endless reorganizations in the economy, and to the lack of sufficient investment in the industry. Oil-producing enterprises have lacked funds due to systematic and growing indebtedness of buyers of crude. This overdue indebtedness reached 393 billion rubles by the beginning of 1993. Although domestic oil prices increased sharply in 1991-92, the volume of production in real terms has dropped by nearly a third. Oil is sold at different prices to different categories of buyers. Prices include expenses, profit from which a 32% profits tax is paid, excise taxes, and payments to a centralized price-regulation fund. From the industry point of view, certain reforms are necessary to reconstruct and develop the industry. These include ensuring payments to oil producers, gradual transfer of Russian prices to world levels, lowering taxes, and adoption and refinement of a law on oil. 1 fig., 7 tabs

Accelerated sea level rise and Florida Current transport

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Park

2015-07-01

Full Text Available The Florida Current is the headwater of the Gulf Stream and is a component of the North Atlantic western boundary current from which a geostrophic balance between sea surface height and mass transport directly influence coastal sea levels along the Florida Straits. A linear regression of daily Florida Current transport estimates does not find a significant change in transport over the last decade; however, a nonlinear trend extracted from empirical mode decomposition (EMD suggests a 3 Sv decline in mean transport. This decline is consistent with observed tide gauge records in Florida Bay and the straits exhibiting an acceleration of mean sea level (MSL rise over the decade. It is not known whether this recent change represents natural variability or the onset of the anticipated secular decline in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC; nonetheless, such changes have direct impacts on the sensitive ecological systems of the Everglades as well as the climate of western Europe and eastern North America.

The impact of regional economic reliance on the tobacco industry on current smoking in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Tingzhong; Barnett, Ross; Rockett, Ian R H; Yang, Xiaozhao Y; Wu, Dan; Zheng, Weijun; Li, Lu

2015-05-01

The purpose of this study was to conduct a preliminary assessment of province of residence and other contextual factors on the likelihood of being a current smoker in China. A cross-sectional, multistage sampling process was used to recruit participants, and their smoking status and sociodemographic characteristics were obtained through face-to-face interviews. The contextual variables were retrieved from a national database. Multilevel logistic regression analysis was performed to assess the impact of provincial economic reliance on the tobacco industry, as well as individual-level characteristics, on the likelihood of being a current smoker. Participants totaled 20,601 from 27 cities located in 26 of the 31 municipalities/provinces in China. Overall smoking prevalence was 31.3% (95% CI: 19.3-33.2%), with rates being highest in Yinchuan City in Ningxia Province (49.8%) and lowest in Shanghai (21.6%). The multilevel analysis showed an excess likelihood of being a current smoker for individuals living in provinces with the highest rate of cigarette production relative to those with the smallest (pmarketing of tobacco products in China. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Process Design Report for Wood Feedstock: Lignocellulosic Biomass to Ethanol Process Desing and Economics Utilizing Co-Current Dilute Acid Prehydrolysis and Enzymatic Hydrolysis Current and Futuristic Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wooley, Robert [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Ruth, Mark [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sheehan, John [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Ibsen, Kelly [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Majdeski, Henry [Delta-T Corporation, Lexington, KY (United States); Galves, Adrian [Delta-T Corporation, Lexington, KY (United States)

1999-07-01

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has undertaken a complete review and update of the process design and economic model for the biomass-to-ethanol process based on co-current dilute acid prehydrolysis, along with simultaneous saccharification (enzymatic) and co-fermentation. The process design includes the core technologies being researched by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE): prehydrolysis, simultaneous saccharification and co-fermentation, and cellulase enzyme production.

Tax Revenue in Sub-Saharan Africa; Effects of Economic Policies and Corruption

OpenAIRE

Dhaneshwar Ghura

1998-01-01

An analysis of data for 39 sub-Saharan African countries during 1985–96 indicates that the variations in tax revenue-GDP ratios within this group are influenced by economic policies and the level of corruption. Namely, these ratios rise with declining inflation, implementation of structural reforms, rising human capital (a proxy for the provision of public services by the government), and declining corruption. The paper confirms that the tax revenue ratio rises with income, and that elements ...

Rudiments of recent fertility decline in Hungary: Postponement, educational differences, and outcomes of changing partnership forms

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zsolt Spéder

2006-10-01

Full Text Available Our study describes fundamental changes in childbearing behavior in Hungary. It documents current postponement of entry into motherhood (first birth and uncovers signs of delay in second birth. We place the behavioral modifications into historical time and reveal the basic role of the political, economic, and societal transformation of Hungary that started in 1989-1990 in these modifications. We document postponement as well as differentiation, and mothers' highest level of education will represent the structural position of individuals. We shed light on the different speed of postponement and support the assumption of behavioral differences according to the highest level of education. Particular attention will be paid to changing partnership relations: Fertility outcomes remain to be strongly associated with the type of partnership and its development; profound changes in partnership formation, namely the proliferation of cohabitation and the increasing separation rate of first partnerships, may therefore facilitate fertility decline in Hungary. The analysis is based on the first wave of the Hungarian panel survey "Turning points of the life course" carried out in 2001/2002.

Algae to Economically Viable Low-Carbon-Footprint Oil.

Science.gov (United States)

Bhujade, Ramesh; Chidambaram, Mandan; Kumar, Avnish; Sapre, Ajit

2017-06-07

Algal oil as an alternative to fossil fuel has attracted attention since the 1940s, when it was discovered that many microalgae species can produce large amounts of lipids. Economics and energy security were the motivational factors for a spurt in algae research during the 1970s, 1990s, and early 2000s. Whenever crude prices declined, research on algae stopped. The scenario today is different. Even given low and volatile crude prices ($30-$50/barrel), interest in algae continues all over the world. Algae, with their cure-all characteristics, have the potential to provide sustainable solutions to problems in the energy-food-climate nexus. However, after years of effort, there are no signs of algae-to-biofuel technology being commercialized. This article critically reviews past work; summarizes the current status of the technology; and based on the lessons learned, provides a balanced perspective on a potential path toward commercialization of algae-to-oil technology.

Social Economic Change As A Precondition Of Ethnic Conflicts: The Cases Of Osh Conflicts In 1990 And 2010

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Kim Hyunjung

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This article demonstrates that ethnicity itself didn’t play a significant role to cause conflicts in Osh in 1990 and 2010, but was rather a side effect or a catalyst produced inevitably by political struggle in the country. The Osh conflict in 1990 occurred at the weakening of the USSR's institutional control and decreasing material support from the center. Kyrgyzstan being the major recipient of both indirect and direct subsidies from the USSR suffered a severe economic depression because subsidies were cut or substantially reduced. Moreover, the sudden disintegration of production and trade relations further exacerbated the economic situation in Kyrgyzstan. The economic decline caused a demographic imbalance, which has contributed to increased confrontation between Kyrgyz and ethnic Uzbeks in Osh. These social tensions coincided with political mobilization under the slogans of ethnicity and contributed to the intensification of the conflict making it look similar to an ethnic conflict for an outside observer. Similarly, the Osh conflict in 2010 happened in the declining economy which was not only the result of the global economic crisis and difficulties in relations with Russia. The political short-sightedness of the Bakiyev regime in resolving problems with the air base at Manas led to complication of relations with Russia, which subsequently led to economic decline in Kyrgyzstan. The economic difficulties soon translated into institutional instability. Massive public demonstrations “framed” as an ethnic conflict by political elites intensified the battle, adding to it an “ethnic” dimension.

Tackling the dual challenge of sustainable consumption and economic growth

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sedlacko, Michal; Antunes, Paula; Asara, Viviana

There is overwhelming evidence that one of the most important challenges facing society today is the growing scale and unequal distribution of consumption of natural resources. Both the socio-economic implications of resource scarcities and the documented decline in provision of and rising threat...

Harnessing the Gender Dividend to Boost Economic Growth in ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Taking advantage of the gender dividend to accelerate economic growth in ECOWAS. This project aims to analyze the gender dividend in West Africa. The gender dividend is the increase in national production per head attributable to more equality between women and men in the labour market. Declining birth rates can ...

The effect of economic downturn on the volume of surgical procedures: A systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Fujihara, Nasa; Lark, Meghan E; Fujihara, Yuki; Chung, Kevin C

2017-08-01

Economic downturn can have a wide range of effects on medicine at both individual and national levels. We aim to describe these effects in relation to surgical volume to guide future planning for physician specialization, patient expectations in the face of economic crises, or estimating healthcare expenditure. We hypothesized that because of high out-of-pocket costs, cosmetic procedure volumes would be most affected by economic decline. A systematic review was conducted using MEDLINE, Embase, and ABI/INFORMS. The main search terms were "economic recession" and "surgical procedures, operative". Studies were included if surgical volumes were measured and economic indicators were used as predictors of economic conditions. Twelve studies were included, and the most common subject was cosmetic (n = 5), followed by orthopedic (n = 2) and cardiac surgeries (n = 2). The majority of studies found that in periods of economic downturn, surgical volume decreased. Among the eight studies using Pearson's correlation analysis, there were no significant differences between cosmetic procedures and other elective procedures, indicating that cosmetic procedures may display trends similar to those of non-cosmetic elective procedures in periods of economic downturn. Surgical volume generally decreased when economic indicators declined, observed for both elective and non-elective surgery fields. However, a few specific procedure volumes such as vasectomy and caesarean section for male babies increased during the economic downturn. Knowledge of these trends can be useful for future surgical planning and distribution of healthcare resources. Copyright © 2017 IJS Publishing Group Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

LOOP: engineering marvel, economic calamity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brossard, E B

1985-01-01

The Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP) is the first superport built in the Lower 48. The United States was the only major oil-importing country that did not have a superport, and therefore, could not offload very large crude carriers (VLCCs). Unfortunately, a number of factors changed after it was decided to build LOOP, and these, plus the onerous provisions of the Deepwater Ports Act of 1974, which authorized superports, prevented LOOP from operating economically. LOOP's facilities consist of an offshore platform complex with three single-point-mooring (SPM) system buoys, 19 miles offshore in 110 feet of water, as well as a 32-million-barrel storage terminal 31 miles inland at Clovelly Salt Dome, and connecting pipelines offshore and onshore. By the time LOOP was started-up in May 1981, demand for oil had declined, because of rises in the price of oil, and the source of US oil imports had shifted back to the western hemisphere, away from the eastern hemisphere, closer to the US. The refinery mix in the US also changed, because of up-grading of a number of big refineries, which further reduced demand and made heavier crudes from countries like Mexico and Venezuela more economical. Because of reduced oil imports and shorter hauls, oil shippers started using or continued to use smaller tankers. Smaller tankers are not economical for LOOP, nor do they need LOOP. The start-up of the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS) in mid-1977 backed out 1.5 million bd/sup -1/ of foreign imports. TAPS' capacity coincides with LOOP's offloading capacity of 1.4 million bd/sup -1/. US decontrol of domestic crude in 1981 and increased drilling, plus general energy conservation further reduced US oil imports. US consumption declined to 15.1 million bd/sup -1/ in 1983, from 18.8 million bd/sup -1/ in 1978. This award-winning superport needed federal decontrol and increased oil imports along with more VLCCs, in order to operate economically.

Employment changes in U.S. hardwood lumber consuming industries during economic expansions and contractions since 1991

Science.gov (United States)

William G. Luppold; Matt Bumgardner

2016-01-01

Understanding employment trends is important for discerning the economic vitality of U.S. hardwood lumber users. After a period of growth in the 1990s, employment in industries consuming hardwood lumber has declined in the 21st century. The wood household furniture industry has experienced the greatest decline, with North Carolina, Virginia, and California being the...

An overview of current research on EU ETS: Evidence from its operating mechanism and economic effect

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Yue-Jun; Wei, Yi-Ming

2010-01-01

The European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) is supposed to be an important mechanism for addressing climate change. Up to now, the theoretical foundation of EU ETS has been widely acknowledged, but empirical research on its current situation has only been published recently or is forthcoming. Therefore, this paper is aimed to summarize the main arguments of empirical studies on the EU ETS, in terms of two aspects, i.e., the operating mechanism and economic effect of the EU ETS, which are two crucial topics and have been attached much attention. Based on the shortcomings of current research and future requirements of the EU ETS evolution, finally, we also present some further directions of the EU ETS research. Overall, the research overview here may be helpful to recognize the features of the EU ETS and its effect on others. (author)

Cognitive decline is associated with risk aversion and temporal discounting in older adults without dementia.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bryan D James

Full Text Available Risk aversion and temporal discounting are preferences that are strongly linked to sub-optimal financial and health decision making ability. Prior studies have shown they differ by age and cognitive ability, but it remains unclear whether differences are due to age-related cognitive decline or lower cognitive abilities over the life span. We tested the hypothesis that cognitive decline is associated with higher risk aversion and temporal discounting in 455 older persons without dementia from the Memory and Aging Project, a longitudinal cohort study of aging in Chicago. All underwent repeated annual cognitive evaluations using a detailed battery including 19 tests. Risk aversion was measured using standard behavioral economics questions: participants were asked to choose between a certain monetary payment versus a gamble in which they could gain more or nothing; potential gamble gains varied across questions. Temporal discounting: participants were asked to choose between an immediate, smaller payment and a delayed, larger one; two sets of questions addressed small and large stakes based on payment amount. Regression analyses were used to examine whether prior rate of cognitive decline predicted level of risk aversion and temporal discounting, controlling for age, sex, and education. Over an average of 5.5 (SD=2.9 years, cognition declined at an average of 0.016 units per year (SD=0.03. More rapid cognitive decline predicted higher levels of risk aversion (p=0.002 and temporal discounting (small stakes: p=0.01, high stakes: p=0.006. Further, associations between cognitive decline and risk aversion (p=0.015 and large stakes temporal discounting (p=0.026 persisted in analyses restricted to persons without any cognitive impairment (i.e., no dementia or mild cognitive impairment; the association of cognitive decline and small stakes temporal discounting was no longer statistically significant (p=0.078. These findings are consistent with the

Cognitive decline is associated with risk aversion and temporal discounting in older adults without dementia.

Science.gov (United States)

James, Bryan D; Boyle, Patricia A; Yu, Lei; Han, S Duke; Bennett, David A

2015-01-01

Risk aversion and temporal discounting are preferences that are strongly linked to sub-optimal financial and health decision making ability. Prior studies have shown they differ by age and cognitive ability, but it remains unclear whether differences are due to age-related cognitive decline or lower cognitive abilities over the life span. We tested the hypothesis that cognitive decline is associated with higher risk aversion and temporal discounting in 455 older persons without dementia from the Memory and Aging Project, a longitudinal cohort study of aging in Chicago. All underwent repeated annual cognitive evaluations using a detailed battery including 19 tests. Risk aversion was measured using standard behavioral economics questions: participants were asked to choose between a certain monetary payment versus a gamble in which they could gain more or nothing; potential gamble gains varied across questions. Temporal discounting: participants were asked to choose between an immediate, smaller payment and a delayed, larger one; two sets of questions addressed small and large stakes based on payment amount. Regression analyses were used to examine whether prior rate of cognitive decline predicted level of risk aversion and temporal discounting, controlling for age, sex, and education. Over an average of 5.5 (SD=2.9) years, cognition declined at an average of 0.016 units per year (SD=0.03). More rapid cognitive decline predicted higher levels of risk aversion (p=0.002) and temporal discounting (small stakes: p=0.01, high stakes: p=0.006). Further, associations between cognitive decline and risk aversion (p=0.015) and large stakes temporal discounting (p=0.026) persisted in analyses restricted to persons without any cognitive impairment (i.e., no dementia or mild cognitive impairment); the association of cognitive decline and small stakes temporal discounting was no longer statistically significant (p=0.078). These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that

Additional pest surveyed: hickory decline

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Jennifer Juzwik; Ji-Hyun. Park

2011-01-01

A five year investigation of the cause of rapid crown decline and mortality of bitternut hickory was concluded in September 2011. Results of a series of related studies found that multiple cankers and xylem (the water conducting tissue) dysfunction caused by Ceratocystis smalleyi are correlated with rapid crown decline typical of a limited vascular...

Black Truffle Harvesting in Spanish Forests: Trends, Current Policies and Practices, and Implications on its Sustainability

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Garcia-Barreda, Sergi; Forcadell, Ricardo; Sánchez, Sergio; Martín-Santafé, María; Marco, Pedro; Camarero, J. Julio; Reyna, Santiago

2018-04-01

The European black truffle is a mycorrhizal fungus native to Spanish Mediterranean forests. In most Spanish regions it was originally commercially harvested in the second half of the 20th century. Experts agree that wild truffle yields suffered a sharp decline during the 1970s and 1980s. However, official statistics for Spanish harvest are scarce and seemingly conflicting, and little attention has been paid to the regime for the exploitation of truffle-producing forests and its implications on the sustainability of this resource. Trends in harvest from 1969 to 2013 and current harvesting practices were analyzed as a case study, taking into account that Spain is a major truffle producer worldwide, but at the same time truffles have only recently been exploited. The available statistical sources, which include an increasing proportion of cultivated truffles since the mid-1990s, were explored, with estimates from Truffle Harvesters Federation showing higher consistency. Statistical sources were then compared with proxies for wild harvest (rents from truffle leases in public forests) to corroborate time trends in wild harvesting. Results suggest that black truffle production is recovering in recent years thanks to plantations, whereas wild harvest is still declining. The implications of Spanish legal and institutional framework on sustainability of wild truffle use are reviewed. In the current scenario, the decline of wild harvest is likely to continue and eventually make commercial harvesting economically unattractive, thus aggravating sustainability issues. Strengthening of property rights, rationalization of harvesting pressure, forest planning and involvement of public stakeholders are proposed as corrective measures.

Declining groundwater level caused by irrigation to row crops in the Lower Mississippi River Basin, Current Situation and Trends

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, G.; Gao, F.; Ouyang, Y.

2017-12-01

The Mississippi River is North America's largest river and the second largest watershed in the world. It flows over 3,700 km through America's heartland to the Gulf of Mexico. Over 3 million hectares in the Lower Mississippi River Basin represent irrigated cropland and 90 percent of those lands currently rely on the groundwater supply. The primary crops grown in this region are soybean, corn, cotton, and rice. Increased water withdrawals for irrigating those crops and stagnant recharging jeopardize the long-term availability of the aquifer and place irrigation agriculture in the region on an unsustainable path. The objectives of this study were to: 1) analyze the current groundwater level in the Lower Mississippi River Basin based on the water table depth observed by Yazoo Mississippi Delta Joint Water Management District from 2000 and 2016; 2) determine trends of change in groundwater level under conventional and groundwater saving irrigation management practices (ET or soil moisture based full irrigation scheduling using all groundwater or different percentages of ground and surface water). The coupled SWAT and MODFLOW model was applied to investigate the trends. Observed results showed that the groundwater level has declined from 33 to 26 m at an annual decrease rate of 0.4 m in the past 17 years. Simulated results revealed that the groundwater storage was decreased by 26 cm/month due to irrigation in crop season. It is promising that the groundwater storage was increased by 23 cm/month, sometimes even 60 cm/month in crop off-growing season because of recharge from rainfall. Our results suggest that alternative ET or soil moisture based groundwater saving irrigation scheduling with conjunctive use of surface water is a sustainable practice for irrigated agriculture in in the Lower Mississippi River Basin.

History or histories of socio-economic rights?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christiansen, Christian O.

2016-01-01

The German historian Reinhart Koselleck was once described as a partisan for histories in the plural (as opposed to history in the singular). His point was that history has many different layers, logics, and temporalities and that the modernist idea of one, overarching history with one direction ......) at work in the histories and dynamics of socio-economic rights. More specifically, I propose a list of eight important variables that may help explain the dynamics of the histories of socio-economic rights - their failures as well as their successes....... (telos) – be it towards progress or decline – was inadequate for the multi-faceted geographies, rhythms and dynamics of life. In these reflections on a two-days research workshop in Paris, I argue that Koselleck’s point also applies to the field of the history of socio-economic rights. Instead of writing...... the history of socio-economic rights, I would propose thinking about the histories of socio-economic rights. There are three main reasons for this: the non-teleological histories of socioeconomic rights; the distinctiveness between different socio-economic rights; and the complexity (multiple variables...

The effect of current and prospective policies on photovoltaic system economics: An application to the US Midwest

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sesmero, Juan; Jung, Jinho; Tyner, Wallace

2016-01-01

This study models fundamental features of current and prospective policies encouraging adoption of residential photovoltaic (PV) systems. A key finding is that time-of-day (ToD) pricing can enhance or worsen the economics of PV systems. Moreover, increased responsiveness of electricity demand to its price diminishes the effectiveness of ToD pricing in the absence of net metering, but does not affect it otherwise. An application to plausible conditions in the State of Indiana, USA, shows that current policies are unlikely to trigger adoption by a risk-neutral forward-looking residential customer. However, adoption of PV systems can be induced if the Federal Tax Credit is increased to cover 48% of capital cost (instead of the current 30%), which could imply a cost to the Federal Government of about $0.95/kW of installed capacity depending on the panel’s size. We demonstrate that implementation of ToD pricing can trigger adoption under a range of on- and off-peak price combinations. But our analysis also shows that the cost-effectiveness of ToD pricing is enhanced at higher ratios of on-peak to off-peak prices. - Highlights: •Time-of-day (ToD) pricing can enhance or worsen the economics of PV systems. •Effect of ToD is independent of demand elasticity if combined with net metering. •Adoption of PV system requires that Federal Tax Credit cover half of capital cost. •To induce adoption, ToD must act as a tax on grid electricity. •Cost-effectiveness of ToD enhanced at higher ratios of on-peak to off-peak prices.

Are adverse effects incorporated in economic models? An initial review of current practice.

Science.gov (United States)

Craig, D; McDaid, C; Fonseca, T; Stock, C; Duffy, S; Woolacott, N

2009-12-01

To identify methodological research on the incorporation of adverse effects in economic models and to review current practice. Major electronic databases (Cochrane Methodology Register, Health Economic Evaluations Database, NHS Economic Evaluation Database, EconLit, EMBASE, Health Management Information Consortium, IDEAS, MEDLINE and Science Citation Index) were searched from inception to September 2007. Health technology assessment (HTA) reports commissioned by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) HTA programme and published between 2004 and 2007 were also reviewed. The reviews of methodological research on the inclusion of adverse effects in decision models and of current practice were carried out according to standard methods. Data were summarised in a narrative synthesis. Of the 719 potentially relevant references in the methodological research review, five met the inclusion criteria; however, they contained little information of direct relevance to the incorporation of adverse effects in models. Of the 194 HTA monographs published from 2004 to 2007, 80 were reviewed, covering a range of research and therapeutic areas. In total, 85% of the reports included adverse effects in the clinical effectiveness review and 54% of the decision models included adverse effects in the model; 49% included adverse effects in the clinical review and model. The link between adverse effects in the clinical review and model was generally weak; only 3/80 (manipulation. Of the models including adverse effects, 67% used a clinical adverse effects parameter, 79% used a cost of adverse effects parameter, 86% used one of these and 60% used both. Most models (83%) used utilities, but only two (2.5%) used solely utilities to incorporate adverse effects and were explicit that the utility captured relevant adverse effects; 53% of those models that included utilities derived them from patients on treatment and could therefore be interpreted as capturing adverse effects. In total

ECONOMIC CRISIS AND ECONOMIC DISPARITIES IN EUROPEAN UNION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rodica CRUDU

2015-09-01

Full Text Available The impact of the economic and financial crisis is still being felt. It started as an acute crisis of the banking system, but then quickly affected the real economy, causing a substantial slump in business investment, household demand and output. The current economic crisis has affected almost all European countries but the countries of the European south and the former eastern socialist republics have suffered the most. The objective in this paper is to quantify economic disparities as expressed by several growth indicators, such as GDP per capita, employment/unemployment rates, labour productivity rates and use them to compare the economic performances before and after the crisis. EU took several measures to recover from the economic crisis. Nevertheless, its ability to adjust to widely diverse national and local contexts that have been impacted differently by the effects of the crisis, and to support the different patterns of economic growth that will result from it, is yet to be seen.

Global panorama of energy access: Current situation, challenges and outlook

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Galichon, Ines; Lacroix, Olivier; Wiedmer, Damien

2014-07-15

Globally 1.3 billion people do not have access to electricity. If this figure is projected to decline 1 billion by 2030, the global population who relies on the traditional use of biomass for cooking is expected to substantially increase, from 2.6 billion to 2.7 billion people. In its commitment to energy access, ENEA published a synthesis on the current situation and the further development perspectives of energy access worldwide, a crucial issue of human and economic development and an opportunity for the private sector. This synthesis present the ecosystem of the actors involved in the improvement of energy access and the technical solutions that serve the needs of this high-potential market. The five main challenges energy access has to address are presented in this publication: energy prices, equipment financing, distribution, change of scale and environmental performances.

Evaluating the economic impact of casino liberalization in Macao.

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Zheng, Victor; Hung, Eva P W

2012-09-01

This paper aims to evaluate the economic impact after Macao decided to liberalize its gaming industry. By analysing both objective data of official statistics and subjective data of the perceptions of quality of life, we painted a picture of mixed blessings. Although objective indicators showed strong economic growth in terms of a rise in per capita GDP and public revenue as well as a decline in unemployment rate, subjective indicators revealed that local residents were less than optimistic about their own employment outlook and did not perceive any improvement in their overall economic situation. While casino liberalization brought forth tremendous economic gain, the general population did not subjectively feel the benefits. An integrative analysis of both objective and subjective indicators would therefore allow us to look closer how residents' lives in the micro-level could have been adversely affected by the prosperous economic outlook at the macro-level.

Daily Stress Magnifies the Association between Cognitive Decline and Everyday Memory Problems: An Integration of Longitudinal and Diary Methods

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Rickenbach, Elizabeth H.; Almeida, David M.; Seeman, Teresa E.; Lachman, Margie E.

2014-01-01

We examined whether long-term fluid cognitive decline was associated with memory problems in everyday life, and whether stress plays a moderating role. We expected that the association between cognitive decline and everyday memory problems would be magnified in the context of self-reported and physiological stress. Data are from the Boston Longitudinal Study, a subsample of the Midlife in the United States study. Participants in the current study (n=112) completed a battery of tests measuring fluid cognitive functioning at Time 1 (T1) and 2 (T2) over ten years. At T2, participants completed weekly diaries of self-reported daily stressors and everyday memory problems for twelve consecutive weeks. Also at T2, participants provided four saliva samples over the course of one day to assess physiological stress using diurnal cortisol profiles [cortisol awakening response (CAR) and diurnal cortisol slope (DCS)]. Self-reported daily stressors and a less healthy DCS were associated with more everyday memory problems, and participants with greater cognitive decline reported more memory problems compared to those with less or no decline. Self-reported daily stressors and CAR moderated the relationship of cognitive decline and memory problems. As expected, more cognitive decline was associated with greater increases in memory problems on weeks when individuals reported more daily stressors and for individuals with a less healthy CAR. The current findings can inform interventions aimed to identify factors, such as daily stress, that contribute to daily functioning in the context of cognitive decline. PMID:25365691

How did the economic recession (2008-2010) influence traffic fatalities in OECD-countries?

Science.gov (United States)

Wegman, Fred; Allsop, Richard; Antoniou, Constantinos; Bergel-Hayat, Ruth; Elvik, Rune; Lassarre, Sylvain; Lloyd, Daryl; Wijnen, Wim

2017-05-01

This paper presents analyses of how the economic recession that started in 2008 has influenced the number of traffic fatalities in OECD countries. Previous studies of the relationship between economic recessions and changes in the number of traffic fatalities are reviewed. Based on these studies, a causal diagram of the relationship between changes of the business cycle and changes in the number of traffic fatalities is proposed. This causal model is tested empirically by means of multivariate analyses and analyses of accident statistics for Great Britain and Sweden. Economic recession, as indicated both by slower growth of, or decline of gross national product, and by increased unemployment is associated with an accelerated decline in the number of traffic fatalities, i.e. a larger decline than the long-term trend that is normal in OECD countries. The principal mechanisms bringing this about are a disproportionate reduction of driving among high-risk drivers, in particular young drivers and a reduction of fatality rate per kilometre of travel, probably attributable to changes in road user behaviour that are only partly observable. The total number of vehicle kilometres of travel did not change very much as a result of the recession. The paper is based on an ITF-report that presents the analyses in greater detail. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Use of a Geothermal-Solar Hybrid Power Plant to Mitigate Declines in Geothermal Resource Productivity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dan Wendt; Greg Mines

2014-09-01

Many, if not all, geothermal resources are subject to decreasing productivity manifested in the form of decreasing brine temperature, flow rate, or both during the life span of the associated power generation project. The impacts of resource productivity decline on power plant performance can be significant; a reduction in heat input to a power plant not only decreases the thermal energy available for conversion to electrical power, but also adversely impacts the power plant conversion efficiency. The reduction in power generation is directly correlated to a reduction in revenues from power sales. Further, projects with Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) contracts in place may be subject to significant economic penalties if power generation falls below the default level specified. A potential solution to restoring the performance of a power plant operating from a declining productivity geothermal resource involves the use of solar thermal energy to restore the thermal input to the geothermal power plant. There are numerous technical merits associated with a renewable geothermal-solar hybrid plant in which the two heat sources share a common power block. The geo-solar hybrid plant could provide a better match to typical electrical power demand profiles than a stand-alone geothermal plant. The hybrid plant could also eliminate the stand-alone concentrated solar power plant thermal storage requirement for operation during times of low or no solar insolation. This paper identifies hybrid plant configurations and economic conditions for which solar thermal retrofit of a geothermal power plant could improve project economics. The net present value of the concentrated solar thermal retrofit of an air-cooled binary geothermal plant is presented as functions of both solar collector array cost and electricity sales price.

Lung function decline in COPD

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tantucci C

2012-02-01

Full Text Available Claudio Tantucci, Denise ModinaUnit of Respiratory Medicine, Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences, University of Brescia, Brescia, ItalyAbstract: The landmark study of Fletcher and Peto on the natural history of tobacco smoke-related chronic airflow obstruction suggested that decline in the forced expiratory volume in the first second (FEV1 in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD is slow at the beginning, becoming faster with more advanced disease. The present authors reviewed spirometric data of COPD patients included in the placebo arms of recent clinical trials to assess the lung function decline of each stage, defined according to the severity of airflow obstruction as proposed by the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD guidelines. In large COPD populations the mean rate of FEV1 decline in GOLD stages II and III is between 47 and 79 mL/year and 56 and 59 mL/year, respectively, and lower than 35 mL/year in GOLD stage IV. Few data on FEV1 decline are available for GOLD stage I. Hence, the loss of lung function, assessed as expiratory airflow reduction, seems more accelerated and therefore more relevant in the initial phases of COPD. To have an impact on the natural history of COPD, it is logical to look at the effects of treatment in the earlier stages.Keywords: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, decline, forced expiratory volume in 1 second, FEV1

Declining Global Per Capita Agricultural Production and Warming Oceans Threaten Food Security

Science.gov (United States)

Funk, Chris C.; Brown, Molly E.

2009-01-01

Despite accelerating globalization, most people still eat food that was grown locally. Developing countries with weak purchasing power tend to import as little food as possible from global markets, suffering consumption deficits during times of high prices or production declines. Local agricultural production, therefore, is critical to both food security and economic development among the rural poor. The level of local agricultural production, in turn, will be controlled by the amount and quality of arable land, the amount and quality of agricultural inputs (fertilizer, seeds, pesticides, etc.), as well as farm-related technology, practices, and policies. In this paper we discuss several emerging threats to global and regional food security, including declining yield gains that are failing to keep up with population increases, and warming in the tropical Indian Ocean and its impact on rainfall. If yields continue to grow more slowly than per capita harvested area, parts of Africa, Asia, and Central and Southern America will experience substantial declines in per capita cereal production. Global per capita cereal production will potentially decline by 14 percent between 2008 and 2030. Climate change is likely to further affect food production, particularly in regions that have very low yields due to lack of technology. Drought, caused by anthropogenic warming in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, may also reduce 21 st century food availability by disrupting Indian Ocean moisture transports and tilting the 21 st century climate toward a more El Nino-like state. The impacts of these circulation changes over Asia remain uncertain. For Africa, however, Indian Ocean warming appears to have already reduced main growing season rainfall along the eastern edge of tropical Africa, from southern Somalia to northern parts of the Republic of South Africa. Through a combination of quantitative modeling of food balances and an examination of climate change, we present an analysis of

Declining global per capita agricultural production and warming oceans threaten food security

Science.gov (United States)

Funk, Christopher C.; Brown, Molly E.

2009-01-01

Despite accelerating globalization, most people still eat food that is grown locally. Developing countries with weak purchasing power tend to import as little food as possible from global markets, suffering consumption deficits during times of high prices or production declines. Local agricultural production, therefore, is critical to both food security and economic development among the rural poor. The level of local agricultural production, in turn, will be determined by the amount and quality of arable land, the amount and quality of agricultural inputs (fertilizer, seeds, pesticides, etc.), as well as farm-related technology, practices and policies. This paper discusses several emerging threats to global and regional food security, including declining yield gains that are failing to keep up with population increases, and warming in the tropical Indian Ocean and its impact on rainfall. If yields continue to grow more slowly than per capita harvested area, parts of Africa, Asia and Central and Southern America will experience substantial declines in per capita cereal production. Global per capita cereal production will potentially decline by 14% between 2008 and 2030. Climate change is likely to further affect food production, particularly in regions that have very low yields due to lack of technology. Drought, caused by anthropogenic warming in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, may also reduce 21st century food availability in some countries by disrupting moisture transports and bringing down dry air over crop growing areas. The impacts of these circulation changes over Asia remain uncertain. For Africa, however, Indian Ocean warming appears to have already reduced rainfall during the main growing season along the eastern edge of tropical Africa, from southern Somalia to northern parts of the Republic of South Africa. Through a combination of quantitative modeling of food balances and an examination of climate change, this study presents an analysis of emerging

How is post-industrial decline associated with the geography of physical activity? Evidence from the Health Survey for England.

Science.gov (United States)

Rind, Esther; Jones, Andy; Southall, Humphrey

2014-03-01

In recent decades, the prevalence of physical activity has declined considerably in many developed countries, which has been related to rising levels of obesity and several weight-related medical conditions, such as coronary heart disease. There is evidence that areas exhibiting particularly low levels of physical activity have undergone a strong transition away from employment in physically demanding occupations. It is proposed that such processes of deindustrialisation may be causally linked to unexplained geographical disparities in physical activity. This study investigates how geographical variations in deindustrialisation are associated with current levels of physical activity across different activity domains and relevant macro-economic time periods in England. The analysis includes data on 27,414 adults from the Health Survey for England 2006 and 2008 who reported total, occupational, domestic, recreational and walking activity. Based on employment change in industries associated with heavy manual work, a local measurement of industrial decline was developed, covering the period 1841-2001. We applied a multilevel modelling approach to study associations between industrial decline and physical activity. Results indicate that the process of deindustrialisation appears to be associated with patterns of physical activity and that this is independent of household income. The effects observed were generally similar for men and women. However, the nature of the association differed across areas, time periods and employment types; in particular, residents of districts characterised by a history of manufacturing and mining employment had increased odds of reporting low activity levels. We conclude that post-industrial change may be a factor in explaining present-day variations in physical activity, emphasising the plausible impact of inherited cultures and regional identities on health related behaviours. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Woodland restoration in Scotland: ecology, history, culture, economics, politics and change.

Science.gov (United States)

Hobbs, Richard

2009-07-01

In the latter half of the 20th century, native pine woodlands in Scotland were restricted to small remnant areas within which there was little regeneration. These woodlands are important from a conservation perspective and are habitat for numerous species of conservation concern. Recent developments have seen a large increase in interest in woodland restoration and a dramatic increase in regeneration and woodland spread. The proximate factor enabling this regeneration is a reduction in grazing pressure from sheep and, particularly, deer. However, this has only been possible as a result of a complex interplay between ecological, political and socio-economic factors. We are currently seeing the decline of land management practices instituted 150-200 years ago, changes in land ownership patterns, cultural revival, and changes in societal perceptions of the Scottish landscape. These all feed into the current move to return large areas of the Scottish Highlands to tree cover. I emphasize the need to consider restoration in a multidisciplinary framework which accounts not just for the ecology involved but also the historical and cultural context.

The demographic response to economic crisis in historical and contemporary populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, R

1990-01-01

A review of the impact of economic fluctuations on demographic factors suggests remarkable similarities between the pre-20th century experience of European populations and the current experience of poor developing countries. Studies of pre-industrial European population consistently show a negative association of both nuptiality and marital fertility with grain prices and a positive mortality-price association in time of economic crisis. Mortality generally remains elevated for at least 2 years after the crisis, while fertility is lowest in the year following the crisis and then rebounds to above-normal levels before restabilizing. Recent data on major famines in Bangladesh and China, and on less catastrophic food production short falls or price increases of relatively brief duration in India, Japan, and Taiwan, allow further analysis of the impact of economic conditions. In all 5 scenarios, the timing effects are consistent with the pre-industrial European pattern. However, when the crisis is exceptionally severe (as in the case of China), the mortality response is more immediate. Overall, as Caldwell and Caldwell have hypothesized, increases in mortality and decreases in fertility are equally responsible for population loss in times of economic crises--although mortality plays a larger role in poorer settings. Even in the case of catastrophic events such as famine, the demographic response to an economic crisis rarely has a qualitatively important impact on population trends. For example, the massive famine of 1959-61 in China represented a loss of only a few years of natural increase. Studies of contemporary developed societies such as the US have produced contradictory findings. It is speculated that the research will eventually uncover a pattern of a decline in fertility and perhaps nuptiality after an economic crisis, but little effect on mortality.

Meaningful use of health information technology and declines in in-hospital adverse drug events.

Science.gov (United States)

Furukawa, Michael F; Spector, William D; Rhona Limcangco, M; Encinosa, William E

2017-07-01

Nationwide initiatives have promoted greater adoption of health information technology as a means to reduce adverse drug events (ADEs). Hospital adoption of electronic health records with Meaningful Use (MU) capabilities expected to improve medication safety has grown rapidly. However, evidence that MU capabilities are associated with declines in in-hospital ADEs is lacking. Data came from the 2010-2013 Medicare Patient Safety Monitoring System and the 2008-2013 Healthcare Information and Management Systems Society (HIMSS) Analytics Database. Two-level random intercept logistic regression was used to estimate the association of MU capabilities and occurrence of ADEs, adjusting for patient characteristics, hospital characteristics, and year of observation. Rates of in-hospital ADEs declined by 19% from 2010 to 2013. Adoption of MU capabilities was associated with 11% lower odds of an ADE (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.84-0.96). Interoperability capability was associated with 19% lower odds of an ADE (95% CI, 0.67- 0.98). Adoption of MU capabilities explained 22% of the observed reduction in ADEs, or 67,000 fewer ADEs averted by MU. Concurrent with the rapid uptake of MU and interoperability, occurrence of in-hospital ADEs declined significantly from 2010 to 2013. MU capabilities and interoperability were associated with lower occurrence of ADEs, but the effects did not vary by experience with MU. About one-fifth of the decline in ADEs from 2010 to 2013 was attributable to MU capabilities. Findings support the contention that adoption of MU capabilities and interoperability spurred by the Health Information Technology for Economic and Clinical Health Act contributed in part to the recent decline in ADEs. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association 2017. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the United States.

THE CURRENT STATE OF CLOTHING TRADE IN THE BALKAN COUNTRIES

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TRIPA Simona

2017-05-01

Full Text Available The study presented here is aimed at analysing the current state of clothing trade in the Balkan states. The dynamics of change over a 15‐year period following economic reforms are revealed. The clothing industries play a significant role and continue to contribute to the economic prosperity of countries with an inexpensive labour force. For most Balkan States clothing’s export plays an important role in promoting economic growth and development – for example, exports of garments Albania was in 2015, 16.81% of its exports, Republic of Macedonia 11.75% of its exports, in Turkey10.51% etc. The main factors which influence the level of competitiveness of clothing products from the Balkans are the gross value added per employee and wages. When the producers of the Balkan countries will create products with higher added value in garment industry the competitiveness of these countries will decrease. Also rising wages in this industry, as a result of trade union pressure or government policy, will lead to decreasing competitiveness of these products on the EU market and implicitly to the decrease of exports of garments from these countries. The main challenges that must face the Balkan States are related to restructuring of economic system, changing trade markets and patterns, declining of domestic demand of most merchandise, reduction of competitive ability, narrow export base, and lower economies of scale. The main opportunities that most of these countries can exploit are related to their geographical position, membership of the EU market, infrastructure in garment sector, and highly skilled workforce.

"New Economics"?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Jørgen Ulff-Møller

1999-01-01

The United States, the United Kingdom and Denmark have all enjoyed a long period of high stable growth and low inflation in the 1990s. Attempts to determine the implications of this have led to the so-called "New Economics", whose advocates claim that the relationship between economic growth and ...... and inflation has fundamentally changes. The following article tests this thesis against current data for the USA.......The United States, the United Kingdom and Denmark have all enjoyed a long period of high stable growth and low inflation in the 1990s. Attempts to determine the implications of this have led to the so-called "New Economics", whose advocates claim that the relationship between economic growth...

Economic Security Environment and Implementation of Planning, Programming, Budgeting, Execution (PPBE) System in Georgia

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Chiabrishvili, Maia

2004-01-01

...; the problems in government institutions resulting from the old Soviet mentality and the lack of leadership skills in a democratic society which led to Georgia's political crisis and economic decline...

The equivalence of numbers: The social value of avoiding health decline: An experimental web-based study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Schwappach David LB

2002-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Health economic analysis aimed at informing policy makers and supporting resource allocation decisions has to evaluate not only improvements in health but also avoided decline. Little is known however, whether the "direction" in which changes in health are experienced is important for the public in prioritizing among patients. This experimental study investigates the social value people place on avoiding (further health decline when directly compared to curative treatments in resource allocation decisions. Methods 127 individuals completed an interactive survey that was published in the World Wide Web. They were confronted with a standard gamble (SG and three person trade-off tasks, either comparing improvements in health (PTO-Up, avoided decline (PTO-Down, or both, contrasting health changes of equal magnitude differing in the direction in which they are experienced (PTO-WAD. Finally, a direct priority ranking of various interventions was obtained. Results Participants strongly prioritized improving patients' health rather than avoiding decline. The mean substitution rate between health improvements and avoided decline (WAD ranged between 0.47 and 0.64 dependent on the intervention. Weighting PTO values according to the direction in which changes in health are experienced improved their accuracy in predicting a direct prioritization ranking. Health state utilities obtained by the standard gamble method seem not to reflect social values in resource allocation contexts. Conclusion Results suggest that the utility of being cured of a given health state might not be a good approximation for the societal value of avoiding this health state, especially in cases of competition between preventive and curative interventions.

The implications of automation for economic growth and the labor share of income

OpenAIRE

Prettner, Klaus

2016-01-01

We introduce automation into the standard Solovian model of capital accumulation and show that (i) there is the possibility of perpetual growth, even in the absence of technological progress; (ii) the long-run economic growth rate declines with population growth, which is consistent with the available empirical evidence; (iii) there is a unique share of savings diverted to automation that maximizes the long-run growth rate of the economy; (iv) the labor share declines with automation to an ex...

Brain drain: Do economic conditions "push" doctors out of developing countries?

Science.gov (United States)

Okeke, Edward N

2013-12-01

Health worker migration is an issue of first order concern in global health policy circles and continues to be the subject of much policy debate. In this paper, we contribute to the discussion by studying the impact of economic conditions on the migration of physicians from developing countries. To our knowledge, this is one of the first papers to do so. A major contribution of this paper is the introduction of a new panel dataset on migration to the US and the UK from 31 sub-Saharan Africa countries. The data spans the period 1975-2004. Using this data, we estimate the impact of changes in economic conditions on physician migration. In our preferred specification that allows for country-specific time trends, we find that a temporary one percentage point decline in GDP per capita increases physician migration in the next period by approximately. 3 percent. In our IV models a one percentage point decline in GDP per capita increases physician migration in the next period by between 3.4 and 3.6 percent. Overall, our results suggest a significant effect of developing country economic conditions on physician migration. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Why Did People Move During the Great Recession? The Role of Economics in Migration Decisions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Brian L. Levy

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Labor migration offers an important mechanism to reallocate workers when there are regional differences in employment conditions. Whereas conventional wisdom suggests migration rates should increase during recessions as workers move out of areas that are hit hardest, initial evidence suggested that overall migration rates declined during the Great Recession, despite large regional differences in unemployment and growth rates. In this paper we use data from the American Community Survey to analyze internal migration trends before and during the economic downturn. First, we find only a modest decline in the odds of adults leaving distressed labor market areas during the Great Recession, which may result in part from challenges related to the housing price crash. Second, we estimate conditional logit models of destination choice for individuals who migrate across labor market areas; we find a substantial effect of economic factors such as labor demand, unemployment, and housing values. We also estimate latent class conditional logit models that test whether there is heterogeneity in preferences for destination characteristics among migrants. Over all, the latent class models suggest that roughly equal percentages of migrants were motivated by economic factors before and during the Great Recession. We conclude that fears of dramatic declines in labor migration seem to be unsubstantiated.

Why Did People Move During the Great Recession?: The Role of Economics in Migration Decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

Levy, Brian L; Mouw, Ted; Daniel Perez, Anthony

2017-04-01

Labor migration offers an important mechanism to reallocate workers when there are regional differences in employment conditions. Whereas conventional wisdom suggests migration rates should increase during recessions as workers move out of areas that are hit hardest, initial evidence suggested that overall migration rates declined during the Great Recession, despite large regional differences in unemployment and growth rates. In this paper, we use data from the American Community Survey to analyze internal migration trends before and during the economic downturn. First, we find only a modest decline in the odds of adults leaving distressed labor market areas during the recession, which may result in part from challenges related to the housing price crash. Second, we estimate conditional logit models of destination choice for individuals who migrate across labor market areas and find a substantial effect of economic factors such as labor demand, unemployment, and housing values. We also estimate latent class conditional logit models that test whether there is heterogeneity in preferences for destination characteristics among migrants. Over all, the latent class models suggest that roughly equal percentages of migrants were motivated by economic factors before and during the recession. We conclude that fears of dramatic declines in labor migration seem to be unsubstantiated.

Lignocellulosic Biomass to Ethanol Process Design and Economics Utilizing Co-Current Dilute Acid Prehydrolysis and Enzymatic Hydrolysis Current and Futuristic Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wooley, R.; Ruth, M.; Sheehan, J.; Ibsen, K.; Majdeski, H.; Galvez, A.

1999-07-20

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has undertaken a complete review and update of the process design and economic model for the biomass-to-ethanol enzymatic based process. The process design includes the core technologies being researched by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE): prehydrolysis, simultaneous saccharification and co-fermentation, and cellulase enzyme production. In addition, all ancillary areas--feed handling, product recovery and purification, wastewater treatment lignin burner and boiler--turbogenerator, and utilities--are included. NREL engaged Delta-T Corporation to assist in the process design evaluation, equipment costing, and overall plant integration. The process design and costing for the lignin burner and boiler turbogenerator has been reviewed by Reaction Engineering Inc. and the wastewater treatment by Merrick and Company. An overview of both reviews is included here. The purpose of this update was to ensure that the process design and equipment costs were reasonable and consistent with good engineering practice for plants of this type using available technical data. This work has resulted in an economic model that can be used to predict the cost of producing ethanol from cellulosic biomass using this technology if a plant were to be built in the next few years. The model was also extended using technology improvements that are expected to be developed based on the current DOE research plan. Future process designs and cost estimates are given for the years 2005, 2010, and 2015.

Is racial prejudice declining in Britain?

Science.gov (United States)

Ford, Robert

2008-12-01

This article employs two previously neglected indicators of racial prejudice from the British Social Attitudes surveys to examine the social distribution of prejudices against black and Asian Britons. Three hypotheses are proposed and tested: that racial prejudice is declining in Britain; that this decline is principally generational in nature; and that greater prejudice is shown towards more culturally distinct Asian minorities than black minorities. Strong evidence is found for the first two hypotheses, with evidence of an overall decline in prejudice and of a sharp decline in prejudices among generations who have grown up since mass black and Asian immigration began in the 1950s. Little evidence is found for the third hypothesis: British reactions towards black and Asian minorities are broadly similar suggesting racial differences may still be the main factor prompting white hostility to British minorities.

Age-dependent decline of beta-cell function in type 1 diabetes after diagnosis: a multi-centre longitudinal study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Barker, A.; Lauria, A.; Schloot, N.

2014-01-01

C-peptide secretion is currently the only available clinical biomarker to measure residual β-cell function in type 1 diabetes. However, the natural history of C-peptide decline after diagnosis can vary considerably dependent upon several variables. We investigated the shape of C-peptide decline...... over time from type 1 diabetes onset in relation to age at diagnosis, HbA1c levels and insulin dose....

The green paradox of the economics of exhaustible resources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cairns, Robert D.

2014-01-01

The green paradox states that an increasing tax on emissions of carbon dioxide, consonant with the expected increase in their marginal damages, may induce oil producers to shift their production toward the present and thereby to exacerbate the problem of climatic change. The model is based on Hotelling models of resource use that do not take the natural and technical features of oil production into account. Natural features include the decline of production through time according to a decline curve. Technical features include the requirement to sink investment in productive capacity. A model of a profit-maximizing firm indicates that, if these features are taken into account, the prediction of the green paradox is unlikely. - Highlights: • The green paradox is a direct application of Hotelling′s rule from the economics of exhaustible resources. • Hotelling′s analysis was a profound contribution to economic thought but evidence for it is weak. • Hotelling-style analysis assumes incorrectly that production can be rearranged at will among time periods. • Technological and geological features of oil production make the prediction of the green paradox unlikely

Axé in movement in the religious market: Umbanda in decline, candomblé in ascension

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Reginaldo Prandi

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The article describes a peculiar dynamics of the Brazilian religious market: the rise and the decline of the cults of African origin. According to the data of several censuses, from 1940 to 2010, beside a slight, but constant, decline of Catholic followers, there was at first a vertiginous rise of umbanda, an “extremely Brazilian” syncretism, then a re-discovery of candomblé, considered as a specifically “afro” cult, and finally a dramatic loss of believers, due to various reasons. Primarily the aggressiveness of the Evangelical churches, which regards the “afro” deities as the representation of the devil; the extraordinary economic means of the same sects that are able to monopolize the media; the proverbial tolerance, the flexibility and the tendency of including instead of fighting different creeds which is typical of the polytheisms; these features are absolutely inadequate to face such a competitive religious market.

Effect of pharmacotherapy on rate of decline of lung function in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: results from the TORCH study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Celli, Bartolomé R; Thomas, Nicola E; Anderson, Julie A

2008-01-01

was smaller for fluticasone propionate and salmeterol compared with placebo (13 ml/year; 95% CI, 5-22; P = 0.003). Rates of decline were similar among the active treatment arms. FEV(1) declined faster in current smokers and patients with a lower body mass index, and varied between world regions. Patients who...

Anticipating ocean acidification's economic consequences for commercial fisheries

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cooley, Sarah R; Doney, Scott C [Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA 02543 (United States)], E-mail: scooley@whoi.edu

2009-06-15

Ocean acidification, a consequence of rising anthropogenic CO{sub 2} emissions, is poised to change marine ecosystems profoundly by increasing dissolved CO{sub 2} and decreasing ocean pH, carbonate ion concentration, and calcium carbonate mineral saturation state worldwide. These conditions hinder growth of calcium carbonate shells and skeletons by many marine plants and animals. The first direct impact on humans may be through declining harvests and fishery revenues from shellfish, their predators, and coral reef habitats. In a case study of US commercial fishery revenues, we begin to constrain the economic effects of ocean acidification over the next 50 years using atmospheric CO{sub 2} trajectories and laboratory studies of its effects, focusing especially on mollusks. In 2007, the $3.8 billion US annual domestic ex-vessel commercial harvest ultimately contributed $34 billion to the US gross national product. Mollusks contributed 19%, or $748 million, of the ex-vessel revenues that year. Substantial revenue declines, job losses, and indirect economic costs may occur if ocean acidification broadly damages marine habitats, alters marine resource availability, and disrupts other ecosystem services. We review the implications for marine resource management and propose possible adaptation strategies designed to support fisheries and marine-resource-dependent communities, many of which already possess little economic resilience.

Cluster Decline and Resilience

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Østergaard, Christian Richter; Park, Eun Kyung

Most studies on regional clusters focus on identifying factors and processes that make clusters grow. However, sometimes technologies and market conditions suddenly shift, and clusters decline. This paper analyses the process of decline of the wireless communication cluster in Denmark, 1963......-2011. Our longitudinal study reveals that technological lock-in and exit of key firms have contributed to impairment of the cluster’s resilience in adapting to disruptions. Entrepreneurship has a positive effect on cluster resilience, while multinational companies have contradicting effects by bringing...... in new resources to the cluster but being quick to withdraw in times of crisis....

Relationship between air quality and economic development in the provincial capital cities of China.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Nengcheng; Xu, Lei

2017-01-01

Air pollution in China has become increasingly severe with rapid economic growth in recent years. We analyzed the relationship between the gross regional product (GRP) per capita and the Integrated Air Pollution Index (IAPI) in all the provincial capital cities in China from 2003 to 2014 and clustered them into six urban development patterns. These patterns are as follows: inverse U-shaped, N-1-shaped, N-2-shaped, U-shaped, linear decline, and stable. The majority of the provincial capitals are N-1, N-2, and U types, suggesting that the air quality is deteriorating currently or will deteriorate in the future. Meteorological conditions and industrial structure are taken into consideration when testing the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis between the economy and air pollutant concentration. Results show that there exists no direct relationship between three main pollutants and GRP per capita, while an inverse U-shaped relationship with the secondary industry and a U-shaped relationship with the tertiary industry. These results will be a meaningful reference for policy makers to develop policies that coordinate the environmental protection and economic development.

The Paradigm of Decline-Metamorphosis-Rebirth in Fine Arts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tine Germ

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The triad of decline-metamorphosis-rebirth constantly reappears in the history of civilisation, it is current in all historical periods and cultural environments, in different areas and the most diverse contexts. Its manifestations are countless and the same is true of its interpretations. They are especially frequent in the area of art, because the evolutionary model, grounded in the idea of cyclic development comes very handy for explanations and illustrations which seek to present complicated things in a simple and clear way. The history of art, mainly in the 19th century, advocated a tripartite development of art which seeks greater perfection and maturity and reaches its peak just to be then inevitably followed by a decline in artistic originality and power. Already for some time now the evolutionary model has been shown too ineffective in addressing scholarly questions, especially due to oversimplification and a priori classification of subject matter which cannot possibly be classified. The perception that the art of the Early Renaissance was a preliminary period for more mature and accomplished achievements of High Renaissance which at some point began to lose its drive and went into decline either by repeating outmoded forms or their decomposition, is not only naive, but simply wrong and represents a misunderstanding of the essence of art. In much the same way it would be equally wrong to label in advance the early works of a certain artist as not-mature-yet or possessing less artistic authenticity.

The Impact of the Current Economic Crisis on the Demand for Higher Education: An Analysis of Spanish Distance Education Universities

Science.gov (United States)

Reina-Paz, María Dolores; Rodríguez-Oromendía, Ainhoa; Sevilla-Sevilla, Claudia

2012-01-01

Spain is currently experiencing a difficult economic situation, and in recent years a significant change has been observed in the behavior of the demand for educational programs as a result of this situation. Recent studies reveal a change in student demand that does not have the same effect on all academic institutions. Bearing this behavior in…

Harm to the Resources of Traditional Nature Management and Its Economic Evaluation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vladimir Grigoryevich Loginov

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The Yamal region occupies the fifth part of the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous District. Therefore it is one of the territories where traditional natural resource management is mainly developing. Its key branches are reindeer herding and fisheries. The major problems in the development of industries are due to an active industrial and transport exploitation of the tundra zone; the situation in reindeer husbandry caused by pasture overgrazing because of uncontrolled increase in livestock; poaching fish. Two following anthropogenic factors have a negative impact on soil and vegetation in the Yamal region: reindeer herding as the main traditional form of natural resource management of Small Indigenous People of the North (SIPN and the intensive industryrelated development of the territory (geological exploration, industry, transport, construction. Since grazing is practiced throughout the whole Yamal Peninsula, which is not occupied by industrial zones, it is the most widespread form of natural resource use and the leading factor of anthropogenic impact on Yamal’s natural territorial complexes. The primary reason for the decline in fish resources is the violation of the ecosystemic reproduction of fish resources due to their excessive catch. One of the main reasons of this is poaching. In turn, the annual increase of surplus catch is caused by the population growth, including SIPN, and the growing density of the road network providing the access to fishing grounds. The article offers the guidelines for economic damage assessment determined by the harm to the pasture resources. The authors justify the amount of compensation that repairs losses arising from their damage, which takes into account the decline in the productivity of land and the period of restoration of the economic and biological potential of pastures for the corresponding periods of years (compensation for economic damage. The economic damage assessment of the fish resources supposes

Economic performance and policies for grid-connected residential solar photovoltaic systems in Brazil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mitscher, Martin; Rüther, Ricardo

2012-01-01

We analyze the economic competitiveness of grid-connected, distributed solar photovoltaic generation through small-scale rooftop installations in five Brazilian state-capitals. The locations represent a comprehensive set of the two essential parameters for the economic viability of PV—solar irradiation and local electricity tariffs. Levelized electricity costs (LEC) for PV generation and net present values (NPV) for a specific PV system are presented. The analysis comprises three different interest rate scenarios reflecting different conditions for capital acquisition to finance the generators; subsidized, mature market and country-specific risk-adjusted interest. In the NPV analysis, revenue flow is modeled by the sale of PV electricity at current residential tariffs assuming net metering. Using subsidized interest rates, the analysis shows that solar PV electricity is already competitive in Brazil, while in the country-specific risk-adjusted rate, the declining, but still high capital costs of PV make it economically unfeasible. At a mature market interest rate, PV competitiveness is largely dependent on the residential tariff. Economic competitiveness in this scenario is given for locations with high residential tariffs. We demonstrate the high potential of distributed generation with photovoltaic installations in Brazil, and show that under certain conditions, grid-connected PV can be economically competitive in a developing country. - Highlights: ► Debt financed grid-connected PV on Brazilian rooftops can be economically feasible since 2011. ► The cost of capital in Brazil is the decisive parameter in PV competitiveness with conventional generation sources. ► Low-cost, long-term financing is an essential requirement for PV to become an economically justifiable generation alternative. ► The Brazilian market holds huge potential for distributed, residential rooftop PV systems of small size.

Sectoral Economies, Economic Contexts, and Attitudes toward Immigration.

Science.gov (United States)

Dancygier, Rafaela M; Donnelly, Michael J

2013-01-01

Do economic considerations shape attitudes toward immigration? In this article, we consider the relationship between economic interests and immigration preferences by examining how developments in individuals' sectors of employment affect these views. Using survey data across European countries from 2002 to 2009 and employing new measures of industry-level exposure to immigration, we find that sectoral economies shape opinions about immigration. Individuals employed in growing sectors are more likely to support immigration than are those employed in shrinking sectors. Moreover, the economic context matters: Making use of the exogenous shock to national economies represented by the 2008 financial crisis, we show that sector-level inflows of immigrant workers have little effect on preferences when economies are expanding, but that they dampen support for immigration when economic conditions deteriorate and confidence in the economy declines. These sectoral effects remain even when controlling for natives' views about the impact of immigration on the national economy and culture. When evaluating immigration policy, individuals thus appear to take into account whether their sector of employment benefits economically from immigration.

Economic considerations for bariatric surgery and morbid obesity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eldo E Frezza

2009-12-01

Full Text Available Eldo E Frezza, Mitchell Wacthell1, Bradley Ewing21Center for Metabolic Disease and Texas Tech University, Department of Pathology, 2Rawls Business School, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX, USAAbstract: The obesity epidemic is also an economic tragedy. This analysis evaluates the economic effects and the potential to improve the well-being of both individual and societal wealth. Econometric techniques should carefully assess the degree to which obesity affects declines in business output, employment, income, and tax revenues at the regional and national levels. Microeconomics assesses lost productivity and associated wages and profit. Macroeconomics assesses trends associated with employment, inflation, interest rates, money supply, and output. To decrease the adverse economic consequences of the obesity epidemic, policy makers must emphasize bariatric surgery as a cost-effective option for qualified patients. Early intervention, education, and tax rebates for obese individuals who undergo bariatric surgery and for medical centers and doctors would likely have positive economic effects on the whole economy in a few years.Keywords: bariatric surgery, morbid obesity, economics

Sectoral Economies, Economic Contexts, and Attitudes toward Immigration

Science.gov (United States)

Donnelly, Michael J.

2013-01-01

Do economic considerations shape attitudes toward immigration? In this article, we consider the relationship between economic interests and immigration preferences by examining how developments in individuals' sectors of employment affect these views. Using survey data across European countries from 2002 to 2009 and employing new measures of industry-level exposure to immigration, we find that sectoral economies shape opinions about immigration. Individuals employed in growing sectors are more likely to support immigration than are those employed in shrinking sectors. Moreover, the economic context matters: Making use of the exogenous shock to national economies represented by the 2008 financial crisis, we show that sector-level inflows of immigrant workers have little effect on preferences when economies are expanding, but that they dampen support for immigration when economic conditions deteriorate and confidence in the economy declines. These sectoral effects remain even when controlling for natives' views about the impact of immigration on the national economy and culture. When evaluating immigration policy, individuals thus appear to take into account whether their sector of employment benefits economically from immigration. PMID:24363457

Ecological-economic modelling of interactions between wild and commercial bees and pesticide use

OpenAIRE

Kleczkowski, Adam; Ellis, Ciaran; Goulson, Dave; Hanley, Nick

2015-01-01

The decline in extent of wild pollinators in recent years has been partly associated with changing farm practices and in particular with increasing pesticide use. In this paper we combine ecological modelling with economic analysis of a single farm output under the as- sumption that both pollination and pest control are essential inputs. We show that the drive to increase farm output can lead to a local decline in the wild bee population. Commercial bees are often considered an alternative to...

[The population and economic problems of South Asia].

Science.gov (United States)

Gu, J

1983-07-29

South Asia, which includes Central South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Southwest Asia, had a comparatively higher population growth rate during the 30-year postwar period because of the overall backward economy and strong religious tradition. From the viewpoint of economics, the high population growth in South Asia has slowed down economic growth, increased the foreign trade imblance, and worsened poverty. Secondly, the rapid population growth has overburdened the area's educational system. The illiteracy rate has been going up continuously because of inadequate funds available for education. Thirdly, young labor is lacking in skills, training, and work experience, and related productivity has declined. Consequently, profits, the investment capability, and wages are also declining. The problems of the oversupply of labor, unemployment, and poverty have also become increasingly serious. In addition, the rapid population growth has intensified the pressure on the food supply and worsened the average nutrition of the general public. In recent years, countries in South Asia have been trying to deal with various problems caused by the rapid population growth. Measures have been taken to control the population growth, with a redistribution of the population to places outside cities, and export labor to oil-producing nations of the Middle East and Africa in order to solve the problem of the domestic labor surplus and earn more income for the foreign exchange. Countries in South Asia need more time and effort to achieve a balance between the population growth and economic development.

Environmental economics and policy making in developing countries. Current issues

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Motta, R.S. da

2001-01-01

In developing countries, where growth expectations are high, least-cost environmental policies are crucial since they can reduce the conflict between economic growth and the environment. In view of this, policymakers in these economies must be very aware of the relationship between economic and environmental issues to offer policy initiatives which can increase efficiency and improve equity. The authors provide a comprehensive analysis of topics varying from the general problems of growth and conservation to specific applications such as; pollution costs, environmental taxation, deforestation and climate change. This volume also offers policymakers a comprehensive view of the challenges they face, and the legacies they leave, in order to convert environmental policy making into an actual programme of welfare improvement. (author)

The other crisis: the economics and financing of maternal, newborn and child health in Asia.

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, Ian; Axelson, Henrik; Tan, B-K

2011-07-01

The Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008/2009 was the largest economic slowdown since the Great Depression. It undermined the growth and development prospects of developing countries. Several recent studies estimate the impact of economic shocks on the poor and vulnerable, especially women and children. Infant and child mortality rates are still likely to continue to decline, but at lower rates than would have been the case in the absence of the GFC. Asia faces special challenges. Despite having been the fastest growing region in the world for decades, and even before the current crisis, this region accounted for nearly 34% of global deaths of children under 5, more than 40% of maternal deaths and 60% of newborn deaths. Global development goals cannot be achieved without much faster and deeper progress in Asia. Current health financing systems in much of Asia are not well placed to respond to the needs of women and their children, or the recent global financial and economic slowdown. Public expenditure is often already too low, and high levels of out-of-pocket health expenditure are an independent cause of inequity and impoverishment for women and their children. The GFC highlights the need for reforms that will improve health outcomes for the poor, protect the vulnerable from financial distress, improve public expenditure patterns and resource allocation decisions, and so strengthen health systems. This paper aims to highlight the most recent assessments of how economic shocks, including the GFC, affect the poor in developing countries, especially vulnerable women and children in Asia. It concludes that conditional cash transfers, increasing taxation on tobacco and increasing the level, and quality, of public expenditure through well-designed investment programmes are particularly relevant in the context of an economic shock. That is because these initiatives simultaneously improve health outcomes for the poor and vulnerable, protect them from further financial

Venezuela's Economic Recovery: Is It Sustainable?

OpenAIRE

Jake Johnston; Mark Weisbrot

2012-01-01

Venezuela’s current growth is generally described as unsustainable, with various negative scenarios put forth, including spiraling debt, inflation, and balance of payments crises. However, these pessimistic forecasts have been far off the mark for most of the past decade. This paper looks at the available economic data to see if Venezuela’s economic recovery could be sustained, or even accelerated. It finds that Venezuela’s current economic growth is sustainable and could continue at the curr...

Factors influencing the decline in lung density in a Danish lung cancer screening cohort.

Science.gov (United States)

Shaker, Saher B; Dirksen, Asger; Lo, Pechin; Skovgaard, Lene T; de Bruijne, Marleen; Pedersen, Jesper H

2012-11-01

Lung cancer screening trials provide an opportunity to study the natural history of emphysema by using computed tomography (CT) lung density as a surrogate parameter. In the Danish Lung Cancer Screening Trial, 2,052 participants were included. At screening rounds, smoking habits were recorded and spirometry was performed. CT lung density was measured as the volume-adjusted 15th percentile density (PD15). A mixed effects model was used with former smoking males with <30 pack-yrs and without airflow obstruction (AFO) at entry as a reference group. At study entry, 893 (44%) participants had AFO. For the reference group, PD15 was 72.6 g·L(-1) with an annual decline of -0.33 g·L(-1). Female sex and current smoking increased PD15 at baseline, 17.3 g·L(-1) (p<0.001) and 10 g·L(-1) (p<0.001), respectively; and both increased the annual decline in PD15 (female: -0.3 g·L(-1); current smoking: -0.4 g·L(-1)). The presence and severity of AFO was a strong predictor of low PD15 at baseline (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) I: -1.4 g·L(-1); GOLD II: -6.3 g·L(-1); GOLD III: -17 g·L(-1)) and of increased annual decline in PD15 (GOLD I: -0.2 g·L(-1); GOLD II: -0.5 g·L(-1); GOLD III: -0.5 g·L(-1)). Female sex, active smoking and the presence of AFO are associated with accelerated decline in lung density.

Decline and conservation of bumble bees.

Science.gov (United States)

Goulson, D; Lye, G C; Darvill, B

2008-01-01

Declines in bumble bee species in the past 60 years are well documented in Europe, where they are driven primarily by habitat loss and declines in floral abundance and diversity resulting from agricultural intensification. Impacts of habitat degradation and fragmentation are likely to be compounded by the social nature of bumble bees and their largely monogamous breeding system, which renders their effective population size low. Hence, populations are susceptible to stochastic extinction events and inbreeding. In North America, catastrophic declines of some bumble bee species since the 1990s are probably attributable to the accidental introduction of a nonnative parasite from Europe, a result of global trade in domesticated bumble bee colonies used for pollination of greenhouse crops. Given the importance of bumble bees as pollinators of crops and wildflowers, steps must be taken to prevent further declines. Suggested measures include tight regulation of commercial bumble bee use and targeted use of environmentally comparable schemes to enhance floristic diversity in agricultural landscapes.

Understanding Amphibian Declines Through Geographic Approaches

Science.gov (United States)

Gallant, Alisa

2006-01-01

Growing concern over worldwide amphibian declines warrants serious examination. Amphibians are important to the proper functioning of ecosystems and provide many direct benefits to humans in the form of pest and disease control, pharmaceutical compounds, and even food. Amphibians have permeable skin and rely on both aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems during different seasons and stages of their lives. Their association with these ecosystems renders them likely to serve as sensitive indicators of environmental change. While much research on amphibian declines has centered on mysterious causes, or on causes that directly affect humans (global warming, chemical pollution, ultraviolet-B radiation), most declines are the result of habitat loss and habitat alteration. Improving our ability to characterize, model, and monitor the interactions between environmental variables and amphibian habitats is key to addressing amphibian conservation. In 2000, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) initiated the Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI) to address issues surrounding amphibian declines.

Visual search for features and conjunctions following declines in the useful field of view.

Science.gov (United States)

Cosman, Joshua D; Lees, Monica N; Lee, John D; Rizzo, Matthew; Vecera, Shaun P

2012-01-01

BACKGROUND/STUDY CONTEXT: Typical measures for assessing the useful field (UFOV) of view involve many components of attention. The objective of the current experiment was to examine differences in visual search efficiency for older individuals with and without UFOV impairment. The authors used a computerized screening instrument to assess the useful field of view and to characterize participants as having an impaired or normal UFOV. Participants also performed two visual search tasks, a feature search (e.g., search for a green target among red distractors) or a conjunction search (e.g., a green target with a gap on its left or right side among red distractors with gaps on the left or right and green distractors with gaps on the top or bottom). Visual search performance did not differ between UFOV impaired and unimpaired individuals when searching for a basic feature. However, search efficiency was lower for impaired individuals than unimpaired individuals when searching for a conjunction of features. The results suggest that UFOV decline in normal aging is associated with conjunction search. This finding suggests that the underlying cause of UFOV decline may arise from an overall decline in attentional efficiency. Because the useful field of view is a reliable predictor of driving safety, the results suggest that decline in the everyday visual behavior of older adults might arise from attentional declines.

Air pollution and forest decline in central Europe

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kandler, O.; Innes, J.L. [University of Munich, Munich (Germany). Institute of Botany

1995-12-31

The term `Waldsterben` was introduced in the early 1980s to describe the progressive death of forests that was believed to be occurring in Central Europe as a result of air pollution. Subsequent surveys and investigations have failed to confirm that forests are dying or are even declining over large areas of Central Europe. Foliar injury by air pollutants, together with mortality, has occurred, but is generally restricted to specific locations in the Czech Republic and in eastern Germany. Where foliar damage has been recorded, it can often be attributed to high concentrations of sulphur dioxide, often acting in combination with other stresses (e.g. frost or insects). Outside areas affected by local sources of pollution, there is little, if any, evidence that the crown condition of trees has been adversely affected by pollution over large areas. Instead, climate appears to have a major effect on the crown condition and growth of trees. Measurements and surveys have revealed a very different picture to that forecasted in the mid-1980s. Growth rates of trees and stands in Central Europe are currently higher than have been recorded at any time in the past. Although declines in individual species in specific areas have been recorded, past records indicate that these do not represent a new phenomenon. Consequently, the terms `Waldsterben` (forest deaths) and `neuartige Waldschaden` (novel type of forest damages) should not be used in the context of the phenomenon reported in Central Europe in the 1980s. Instead different problems should be described separately and the term forest decline used only when there is clear evidence of a general deterioration in the condition of all tree species within a forest.

The statistical analysis of the Geomagnetically Induced Current events occurred in Guangdong, China during the declining phase of solar cycle 23 (2003–2006)

Science.gov (United States)

Ni, Y. Y.

2018-03-01

We study the interplanetary causes of intense geomagnetic storms (Dst ≤ -100 nT) and the corresponding Geomagnetically Induced Current (GIC) events occurred in Ling’ao nuclear power station, Guangdong during the declining phase of solar cycle 23 (2003–2006). The result shows that sMC (a magnetic cloud with a shock), SH (sheath) and SH+MC (a sheath followed by a magnetic cloud) are the three most common interplanetary structures responsible for the storms which will cause GIC events in this period. As an interplanetary structure, CIR (corotating interaction regions) also plays an important role, however, the CIR-driven storms have a relatively minor effect to the GIC. Among the interplanetary parameters, the solar wind velocity and the southward component of the IMF (interplanetary magnetic field) are more important than solar wind density and the temperature to a geomagnetic storm and GIC.

Economic Mobility and the American Dream: Examining Educational Differences. Economic Mobility Project Fact Sheet

Science.gov (United States)

Economic Mobility Project, 2012

2012-01-01

In March 2011, the Economic Mobility Project updated its 2009 national poll to reassess public perceptions of economic mobility and the American Dream in the wake of the Great Recession. Americans with the least education were the most concerned about their current economic situation and future prospects. This reinforces the 2009 and 2011 polls'…

Persistent problems of access to appropriate, affordable TB services in rural China: experiences of different socio-economic groups.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Tuohong; Tang, Shenglan; Jun, Gao; Whitehead, Margaret

2007-02-08

Large-scale Tuberculosis (TB) control programmes in China have been hailed a success. Concerns remain, however, about whether the programme is reaching all sections of the population, particularly poorer groups within rural communities, and whether there are hidden costs. This study takes a household perspective to investigate receipt of appropriate care and affordability of services for different socio-economic groups with TB symptoms in rural China. Secondary analysis of Chinese National Household Health Survey for 2003: 40,000 rural households containing 143,991 individuals, 2,308 identified as TB suspects. use of services and expenditure of TB suspects, by gender and socio-economic position, indicated by household income, education, material assets, and insurance status. 37% of TB suspects did not seek any professional care, with low-income groups less likely to seek care than more affluent counterparts. Of those seeking care, only 35% received any of the recommended diagnostic tests. Of the 182 patients with a confirmed TB diagnosis, 104 (57%) received treatment at the recommended level, less likely if lacking health insurance or material assets. The burden of payment for services amounted to 45% of annual household income for the low-income group, 16% for the high-income group. Access to appropriate, affordable TB services is still problematic in some rural areas of China, and receipt of care and affordability declines with declining socio-economic position. These findings highlight the current shortcomings of the national TB control programme in China and the formidable challenge it faces if it is to reach all sections of the population, including the poor with the highest burden of disease.

Economic fundamentals: between consecration and contestation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Monica-Gabriela GHERMAN

2012-09-01

Full Text Available Currently, the whole world has fallen prey to the most profound and long recession in the history after the war. Based on the causes and effects of the current crisis, can we say exactly which is the best economic trend that evokes the reality of today? Representatives of classicism, neoclassicism, Keynesianism, monetarism, economic liberalism etc.? Economic laws will remain in the same stage or will change? Certainly, there will be an adjustment in economic thinking and the economic crisis will force us to choose a different economic model, based primarily on rationality, morality and temperance.We can even say that a quick return to the Middle Ages, the economic thinking of the scholars, who maintain those principles of economic life dependent and religious morality, by accepting the conditions of inequality as a source of virtue practiced, and detachment from wealth, combined with the principles of economic life in capitalism, could lead to a moral economic model, linking the two categories of facts: religion and economic development, as Max Weber stated in his book “Protestant Ethics and the Spirit of Capitalism”.

Status and trends of amphibian declines and extinctions worldwide.

Science.gov (United States)

Stuart, Simon N; Chanson, Janice S; Cox, Neil A; Young, Bruce E; Rodrigues, Ana S L; Fischman, Debra L; Waller, Robert W

2004-12-03

The first global assessment of amphibians provides new context for the well-publicized phenomenon of amphibian declines. Amphibians are more threatened and are declining more rapidly than either birds or mammals. Although many declines are due to habitat loss and overutilization, other, unidentified processes threaten 48% of rapidly declining species and are driving species most quickly to extinction. Declines are nonrandom in terms of species' ecological preferences, geographic ranges, and taxonomic associations and are most prevalent among Neotropical montane, stream-associated species. The lack of conservation remedies for these poorly understood declines means that hundreds of amphibian species now face extinction.

Pesticide acute toxicity is a better correlate of U.S. grassland bird declines than agricultural intensification.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pierre Mineau

Full Text Available Common agricultural birds are in decline, both in Europe and in North America. Evidence from Europe suggests that agricultural intensification and, for some species, the indirect effects of pesticides mediated through a loss of insect food resource is in part responsible. On a state-by-state basis for the conterminous Unites States (U.S., we looked at several agronomic variables to predict the number of grassland species increasing or declining according to breeding bird surveys conducted between 1980 and 2003. Best predictors of species declines were the lethal risk from insecticide use modeled from pesticide impact studies, followed by the loss of cropped pasture. Loss of permanent pasture or simple measures of agricultural intensification such as the proportion of land under crop or the proportion of farmland treated with herbicides did not explain bird declines as well. Because the proportion of farmland treated with insecticides, and more particularly the lethal risk to birds from the use of current insecticides feature so prominently in the best models, this suggests that, in the U.S. at least, pesticide toxicity to birds should be considered as an important factor in grassland bird declines.

Falling teen pregnancy, birthrates: what's behind the declines?

Science.gov (United States)

Donovan, P

1998-10-01

About half of the almost 1 million US teenagers who become pregnant each year carry their pregnancies to term and give birth. However, after years of steady increases, teen birthrates in the US are lower and pregnancy rates have fallen to their lowest level in 20 years. Teenage sexual activity is also declining. Over the period 1991-96, the birthrate in the US among teens declined from the 20-year high of 62.1 births/1000 females aged 15-19 to 54.4/1000. This 12% decline comes after a 24% increase in the birthrate between 1986 and 1991. Declines in the teen birthrate were observed for the nation overall, as well as in each state, ranging from 6% in Alabama to 29% in Alaska. The teen birthrate among Blacks declined 21% to reach a record low of 91.4/1000 in 1996, while the rate for Hispanic teens barely changed during 1991-95, but eventually declined 5% during 1995-96 to 101.8/1000. The birthrate among non-Hispanic White teens declined 9% during the period to 48.1/1000, while the birthrate for teens aged 15-17 fell 13% during the period and 9% for 18-19 year olds. Pregnancy rates among women aged 15-19 years declined 14% between 1990 and 1995, to 101.1/1000, the lowest level since the mid-1970s. Although researchers are unsure why teen pregnancy and birthrates have fallen, recent survey data suggest that the declines have occurred because both fewer teens are having sex and more sexually active adolescents are using contraception.

Economic optimization of nuclear waste management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

DeWames, R.E.; Grantham, L.F.; Guon, J.; McKisson, R.L.

1984-01-01

The paper presented here addresses the impact of waste management system operating parameters on overall system economics. The conclusion reached by this study is that currently available technology and proposed operating conditions do not lead to optimum economics. The decision to utilize the current reference waste package and non-optimum operating conditions will cause added expenditures of 7 billion dollars over the next several decades. Further, this paper points out that optimum economics is not necessarily incompatible with improved system safety

„STABILITY AND GROWTH PACT, COMMUNITY DOCUMENT „REVIVED” IN THE CURRENT GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS”

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ROXANA-DANIELA PAUN

2011-04-01

Full Text Available The article proposes to make a reasoned radiography Stability and Growth Pact, EU document revived therefore need to strengthen financial discipline and budget 6 to 7 September 2010 meeting of the Economic and Financial Affairs Council (ECOFIN. He talked about the introduction of the Stability and Growth in a 'European quarter' which will be monitored in structural and fiscal policies of the Member States. He also held a first exchange of views about the possible introduction of a levy on banks and a tax on financial transactions. Thus, the European Union has moved to create the world's first supranational system of control over the financial markets, particularly in order to reduce the risk of global financial crisis. The system will act in early 2011. For the first time in history, European financial control agencies will have more seats than national governments. In addition, the European Central Bank will see a branch that will track the emergence of crisis risk.The financial crisis has diminished the EU's growth potential, and made it clear just how interdependent its members' economies are, particularly inside the eurozone. The most important priority now is to restore growth and create effective mechanisms for regulating financial markets - in Europe and internationally. In strengthening its system of economic governance, Europe must learn from previous shortcomings which have put the financial stability of the whole eurozone at risk:- poor observance of the EU's sound rules and procedures for economic policy coordination- insufficient reduction in public debt during the good times – with peer pressure proving an adequate incentive- failure to deal effectively with the build-up of macroeconomic imbalances - despite the Commission's warnings – resulting in high current account deficits, large external indebtedness and high public debt levels in a number of countries (above the official 60% limit for eurozone countries. Greater economic

World oil prices flat to declining

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Adelman, M.A.

1993-01-01

A forecast is presented of the likely trends in world oil prices over the short to medium term. A historical background is presented of the OPEC cartel and its role in influencing oil prices. The incentives and disincentives for OPEC to raise prices, and the tensions within the cartel are explored. Slower demand growth and the expansion of natural gas are expected to put downward pressure on oil prices, which are currently artificially high. The impacts of high taxes on development and exploration are examined, and it is shown that state ownership poses an obstacle to improved performance. Threats of price decline are expected to continue to lead to threats of hasty, or even violent action on the part of OPEC members, as happened in 1990. Privatization and tax codes designed to skim rent are positive trends

Abortions bring economic pressure to bear on hospitals.

Science.gov (United States)

Taravella, S

1989-08-25

The current abortion controversy has serious potential economic consequences for U.S. hospitals, from boycotts and other political actions, but also because of lack of reimbursement for procedures performed on indigent women. An example was given of a threatened boycott of a private hospital in Washington state by evangelical residents and their physicians. Another example of boycott of hospital blood donations was cited. 1078, or 28.7%, of 3752 U.S. hospitals that are equipped to perform abortions do so. 90% of abortions are done by 31% of U.S. hospitals. 90% of these are 1st trimester abortions, costing $200-300. Many employer-sponsored health insurance plans pay for abortions, but Medicaid programs pay for limited numbers of abortions: all abortions for poor women in 13 states, but only those need to save the woman's life in most states. The federal government paid $62,235 for 84 abortions in 13 states in 1988. California and New York have extensive abortion programs for the poor. Hospitals keep a low profile about abortion services, declining to advertise their activity.

Pulp and paper demand deteriorates as global economic crisis takes hold : markets for paper, paperboard and woodpulp, 2008-2009

Science.gov (United States)

Peter J. Ince; Eduard L. Akim; Bernard Lombard; Tomas Parik

2009-01-01

Pulp and paper production and consumption in both Europe and North America declined in 2008 and 2009 as the global economic crisis took hold. In early 2009, leading trade associations were reporting year-over-year declines of 17% in total paper and paperboard production in both Europe and the United States, considerably more than the 2008 drop. Capacity-utilization...

Backcasting the decline of a vulnerable Great Plains reproductive ecotype: identifying threats and conservation priorities

Science.gov (United States)

Worthington, Thomas A.; Brewer, Shannon K.; Grabowski, Timothy B.; Mueller, Julia

2014-01-01

Conservation efforts for threatened or endangered species are challenging because the multi-scale factors that relate to their decline or inhibit their recovery are often unknown. To further exacerbate matters, the perceptions associated with the mechanisms of species decline are often viewed myopically rather than across the entire species range. We used over 80 years of fish presence data collected from the Great Plains and associated ecoregions of the United States, to investigate the relative influence of changing environmental factors on the historic and current truncated distributions of the Arkansas River shiner Notropis girardi. Arkansas River shiner represent a threatened reproductive ecotype considered especially well adapted to the harsh environmental extremes of the Great Plains. Historic (n = 163 records) and current (n = 47 records) species distribution models were constructed using a vector-based approach in MaxEnt by splitting the available data at a time when Arkansas River shiner dramatically declined. Discharge and stream order were significant predictors in both models; however, the shape of the relationship between the predictors and species presence varied between time periods. Drift distance (river fragment length available for ichthyoplankton downstream drift before meeting a barrier) was a more important predictor in the current model and indicated river segments 375–780 km had the highest probability of species presence. Performance for the historic and current models was high (area under the curve; AUC > 0.95); however, forecasting and backcasting to alternative time periods suggested less predictive power. Our results identify fragments that could be considered refuges for endemic plains fish species and we highlight significant environmental factors (e.g., discharge) that could be manipulated to aid recovery.

Cognitive declines precede and predict functional declines in aging and Alzheimer's disease.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laura B Zahodne

Full Text Available To investigate the temporal ordering of cognitive and functional declines separately in older adults with or without Alzheimer's disease (AD.A community-based longitudinal study of aging and dementia in Northern Manhattan (Washington Heights/Hamilton Heights Inwood Columbia Aging Project and a multicenter, clinic-based longitudinal study of prevalent AD at Columbia University Medical Center, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, and the Hôpital de la Salpêtrière in Paris, France (the Predictors Study.3,443 initially non-demented older adults (612 with eventual incident dementia and 517 patients with AD.Cognitive measures included the modified Mini-Mental State Exam and composite scores of memory and language derived from a standardized neuropsychological battery. Function was measured with the Blessed Dementia Rating Scale, completed by the participant (in the sample of non-demented older adults or an informant (in the sample of prevalent AD patients. Data were analyzed with autoregressive cross-lagged panel analysis.Cognitive scores more consistently predicted subsequent functional abilities than vice versa in non-demented older adults, participants with eventual incident dementia, and patients with prevalent AD.Cognitive declines appear to precede and cause functional declines prior to and following dementia diagnosis. Standardized neuropsychological tests are valid predictors of later functional changes in both non-demented and demented older adults.

Globalization and the price decline of illicit drugs.

Science.gov (United States)

Costa Storti, Cláudia; De Grauwe, Paul

2009-01-01

This study aims at understanding the mechanisms underlying the dramatic decline of the retail prices of major drugs like cocaine and heroin during the past two decades. It also aims at analysing the implications of this decline for drug policies. We use a theoretical model to identify the possible causes of this price decline. This allows us to formulate the hypothesis that the major driving force behind the price decline is a reduction of the intermediation margin (the difference between the retail and producer prices). We also develop the hypothesis that globalization has been an important factor behind the decline of the intermediation margin. We then analyse the statistical information to test these hypotheses. We find that the decline in the retail prices of drugs is related to the strong decline in the intermediation margin in the drug business, and that globalization is the main driving force behind this phenomenon. Globalization has done so by increasing the efficiency of the distribution of drugs, by reducing the risk premium involved in dealing with drugs, and by increasing the degree of competition in the drug markets. We conclude that the cocaine and heroin price declines were due to a sharp fall in the intermediation margin, which was probably influenced by globalization. This phenomenon might have a strong impact on the effectiveness of drug policies, increasing the relative effectiveness of policies aiming at reducing the demand of drugs.

With Prudhoe Bay in decline

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davis, J.M.; Pollock, J.R.

1992-01-01

Almost every day, it seems, someone is mentioning Prudhoe Bay---its development activities, the direction of its oil production, and more recently its decline rate. Almost as frequently, someone is mentioning the number of companies abandoning exploration in Alaska. The state faces a double-edged dilemma: decline of its most important oil field and a diminished effort to find a replacement for the lost production. ARCO has seen the Prudhoe Bay decline coming for some time and has been planning for it. We have reduced staff, and ARCO and BP Exploration are finding cost-effective ways to work more closely together through such vehicles as shared services. At the same time, ARCO is continuing its high level of Alaskan exploration. This article will assess the future of Prudhoe Bay from a technical perspective, review ARCO's exploration plans for Alaska, and suggest what the state can do to encourage other companies to invest in this crucial producing region and exploratory frontier

Fir Decline and Mortality in the Southern Siberian Mountains

Science.gov (United States)

Kharuk, Viacheslav I.; Im, Sergei T.; Petrov, Ilya A.; Dvinskaya, Mariya, L.; Fedotova, Elena V.; Ranson, Kenneth J.

2016-01-01

Increased dieback and mortality of dark needle conifer (DNC) stands (composed of fir (Abies sibirica),Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica) and spruce (Picea obovata))were documented in Russia during recent decades. Here we analyzed spatial and temporal patterns of fir decline and mortality in the southern Siberian Mountains based on satellite, in situ and dendrochronological data. The studied stands are located within the boundary between DNC taiga to the north and forest-steppe to the south. Fir decline and mortality were observed to originate where topographic features contributed to maximal water-stress risk, i.e., steep (1825),convex, south-facing slopes with a shallow well-drained root zone. Fir regeneration survived droughts and increased stem radial growth, while upper canopy trees died. Tree ring width(TRW) growth negatively correlated with vapor pressure deficit (VPD), drought index and occurrence of late frosts, and positively with soil water content. Previous year growth conditions (i.e., drought index, VPD, soil water anomalies)have a high impact on current TRW (r 0.600.74). Fir mortality was induced by increased water stress and severe droughts (as a primary factor) in synergy with bark-beetles and fungi attacks (as secondary factors). Dendrochronology data indicated that fir mortality is a periodic process. In a future climate with increased aridity and drought frequency, fir (and Siberian pine) may disappear from portions of its current range (primarily within the boundary with the forest steppe)and is likely to be replaced by drought-tolerant species such as Pinus sylvestris and Larix sibirica.

Role of vaccination in economic growth.

Science.gov (United States)

Quilici, Sibilia; Smith, Richard; Signorelli, Carlo

2015-01-01

The health of a population is important from a public health and economic perspective as healthy individuals contribute to economic growth. Vaccination has the potential to contribute substantially to improving population health and thereby economic growth. Childhood vaccination programmes in Europe can offer protection against 15 important infectious diseases, thus preventing child fatalities and any serious temporary and permanent sequelae that can occur. Healthy children are more able to participate in education, thus preparing them to become healthy and productive adults. Vaccination programmes can also prevent infectious diseases in adolescents, thus allowing them to continue their development towards a healthy adulthood. Protecting adults against infectious diseases ensures that they can fully contribute to productivity and economic development by avoiding sick leave and lower productivity. Vaccination in older adults will contribute to the promotion of healthy ageing, enabling them to assist their familiy with, for instance, childcare, and also help them avoid functional decline and the related impacts on health and welfare expenditure. Effective vaccination programmes for all ages in Europe will thus contribute to the European Union's 2020 health and economic strategies. Indeed, beyond their impact on healthcare resources and productivity, reductions in mortality and morbidity also contribute to increased consumption and gross domestic product. Therefore, assessment of the value of vaccines and vaccination needs to consider not just the direct impact on health and healthcare but also the wider impact on economic growth, which requires a macroeconomic analysis of vaccination programmes.

Sustainable energy-economic-environmental scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2002-03-31

IIASA's Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies (ECS) Project has proposed a quantitative 'working definition' of sustainable development E3 (energy-economic-environmental) scenarios. ECS has proposed four criteria for sustainability: economic growth is sustained throughout the time horizon; socioeconomic inequity among world regions is reduced over the 21st century; reserves-to-production (R/P) ratio for exhaustible primary energy resources do not decline; and long-term environmental stress is mitigated. Using these criteria, 40 long-term E3 scenarios generated by ECS models were reviewed and analyzed. Amongst the conclusions drawn were: slow population growth or stabilization of global population appears to be prerequisite for sustainable development; economic growth alone does not guarantee a sustainable future; carbon intensities of total primary energy must decrease faster than the historical trend; strategies for fossil fuel consumption must aim at non-decreasing R/P ratios; and carbon emissions must be near or below today's levels at the end of this century. The analysis of sustainable development scenarios is an important step towards formulating long-term strategies aimed at climate stabilization. 6 figs., 1 tab.

Two-year decline in vision but not hearing is associated with memory decline in very old adults in a population-based sample.

Science.gov (United States)

Anstey, K J; Luszcz, M A; Sanchez, L

2001-01-01

Recent cross-sectional research in cognitive aging has demonstrated a robust association between visual acuity, auditory thresholds and cognitive performance in old age. However, the nature of the association is still unclear, particularly with respect to whether sensory and cognitive function are causally related. This study aimed to determine whether marked declines in performance on screening measures of either visual acuity or auditory thresholds have an effect on cognitive decline over 2 years. The sample from the Australian Longitudinal Study of Ageing (n = 2,087) were assessed in 1992 and 1994 on measures of sensory and cognitive function as part of a larger clinical assessment. A quasi-experimental design involving comparison of extreme groups using repeated measures MANCOVA with age as a covariate was used. Group performance on measures of hearing, memory, verbal ability and processing speed declined significantly. Decline in visual acuity had a significant effect on memory decline, but not on decline in verbal ability or processing speed. Decline in hearing was not associated with decline in any cognitive domain. The common association between visual acuity, auditory thresholds and cognitive function observed in cross-sectional studies appears to be disassociated in longitudinal studies. Copyright 2001 S. Karger AG, Basel

Certainty of meeting fertility intentions declines in Europe during the 'Great Recession'

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria Rita Testa

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Background: Relatively little research has been conducted on how economic recessions impact fertility intentions. In particular, uncertainty in reproductive intentions has not been examined in relation to economic shocks. Objective: The purpose of this paper is to estimate the impact of individuals' perception of negative changes in both their own and their country's economic performance on reproductive intentions in Europe during the time of the 'Great Recession' (2006-2011. Crucially, we examine both intentions and stated certainty of meeting these intentions. Methods: Using the 2011 Eurobarometer survey for 27 European countries, fertility intentions and reproductive uncertainty are regressed on individuals' perceptions of past trends in country's economic situation, household's financial situation, and personal job situation. Multilevel ordinal regressions models are run separately for people at parities zero and one as well as controlling for a set of socio-demographic variables. Results: A worsening in the households' financial situation, as perceived in the years of the economic crisis, does not affect people's fertility intentions but rather the certainty of meeting these intentions. This relationship holds true at the individual-level for childless people. The more negative the individual's assessment of the household's financial situation, the higher the reproductive uncertainty. While this works exclusively at the country-level for people at parity one, the higher the share of people‟s pessimism on households' financial situation in the country the more insecure individuals of such a country are about having additional children. Conclusions: The empirical evidence suggests that individuals' uncertainty about realising their fertility intentions has risen in Europe and is positively linked to people's perceived household financial difficulties. If European economies continue to fare poorly, fertility intentions could eventually start

Effects of economic downturns on child mortality: a global economic analysis, 1981-2010.

Science.gov (United States)

Maruthappu, Mahiben; Watson, Robert A; Watkins, Johnathan; Zeltner, Thomas; Raine, Rosalind; Atun, Rifat

2017-01-01

To analyse how economic downturns affect child mortality both globally and among subgroups of countries of variable income levels. Retrospective observational study using economic data from the World Bank's Development Indicators and Global Development Finance (2013 edition). Child mortality data were sourced from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Global. 204 countries between 1981 and 2010. Child mortality, controlling for country-specific differences in political, healthcare, cultural, structural, educational and economic factors. 197 countries experienced at least 1 economic downturn between 1981 and 2010, with a mean of 7.97 downturns per country (range 0-21; SD 0.45). At the global level, downturns were associated with significant (p<0.0001) deteriorations in each child mortality measure, in comparison with non-downturn years: neonatal (coefficient: 1.11, 95% CI 0.855 to 1.37), postneonatal (2.00, 95% CI 1.61 to 2.38), child (2.93, 95% CI 2.26 to 3.60) and under 5 years of age (5.44, 95% CI 4.31 to 6.58) mortality rates. Stronger (larger falls in the growth rate of gross domestic product/capita) and longer (lasting 2 years rather than 1) downturns were associated with larger significant deteriorations (p<0.001). During economic downturns, countries in the poorest quartile experienced ∼1½ times greater deterioration in neonatal mortality, compared with their own baseline; a 3-fold deterioration in postneonatal mortality; a 9-fold deterioration in child mortality and a 3-fold deterioration in under-5 mortality, than countries in the wealthiest quartile (p<0.0005). For 1-5 years after downturns ended, each mortality measure continued to display significant deteriorations (p<0.0001). Economic downturns occur frequently and are associated with significant deteriorations in child mortality, with worse declines in lower income countries.

Cultural vs. Economic: Re-Visiting the Determinants of Fertility at a Sub-National Level in the U.S, 1990 - 2000

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jeremy R. Porter

2013-07-01

Full Text Available It is widely accepted that through the past century, and especially since 1950, the world population has grown at an accelerating pace landing the current world's population at about 6.5 billion and, according to UN projections, it is expected to reach 9.1 billion by 2050 (Bongaarts 2005. However, this growth is not uniform and tends to vary both regionally and intra-regionally around the world (Bongaarts 1998. There are competing theories as to the true determinants of fertility levels and these identified patterns (Caldwell 2001. The bulk of these theories pit economic determinants versus socio-cultural determinants as the primary indicators concerning the onset of fertility decline. However, most of this work has had an international focus with very few examining sub-national trends in fertility patterns. This paper draws on the work of one study which examined sub-national trends in the U.S. in hopes of better understanding current trends in determining fertility in the U.S. (Cutright 1983. An OLS regression approach is employed allowing for the examination of the two competing theories. Findings suggest that, while both are certainly significant, the role of economic determinants.

Income Distribution and Economic Well-Being within European Families

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bonke, Jens

well-being declines and wives raises the more she earns relatively to him. However, the relationships are often of an inversed u-shaped form for both sexes with men getting the highest well-being at an earlier stage than women. Within the Scandinavian welfare state regime this preferred distribution......-shaped relationship between the distribution of income and men and women’s economic well-being.......The article analyses the distribution of income within European families and the consequences for the spouses’ economic well-being. Thus, many studies have shown that women nowadays participate on the labour market in an increasing number resulting in a more equal distribution of income within...

Positive thinking about the future in newspaper reports and presidential addresses predicts economic downturn.

Science.gov (United States)

Sevincer, A Timur; Wagner, Greta; Kalvelage, Johanna; Oettingen, Gabriele

2014-04-01

Previous research has shown that positive thinking, in the form of fantasies about an idealized future, predicts low effort and poor performance. In the studies reported here, we used computerized content analysis of historical documents to investigate the relation between positive thinking about the future and economic development. During the financial crisis from 2007 to 2009, the more weekly newspaper articles in the economy page of USA Today contained positive thinking about the future, the more the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined in the subsequent week and 1 month later. In addition, between the New Deal era and the present time, the more presidential inaugural addresses contained positive thinking about the future, the more the gross domestic product and the employment rate declined in the presidents' subsequent tenures. These counterintuitive findings may help reveal the psychological processes that contribute to an economic crisis.

Parallels in amphibian and bat declines from pathogenic fungi.

Science.gov (United States)

Eskew, Evan A; Todd, Brian D

2013-03-01

Pathogenic fungi have substantial effects on global biodiversity, and 2 emerging pathogenic species-the chytridiomycete Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, which causes chytridiomycosis in amphibians, and the ascomycete Geomyces destructans, which causes white-nose syndrome in hibernating bats-are implicated in the widespread decline of their vertebrate hosts. We synthesized current knowledge for chytridiomycosis and white-nose syndrome regarding disease emergence, environmental reservoirs, life history characteristics of the host, and host-pathogen interactions. We found striking similarities between these aspects of chytridiomycosis and white-nose syndrome, and the research that we review and propose should help guide management of future emerging fungal diseases.

Bone density loss on computed tomography at 3-year follow-up in current compared to former male smokers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pompe, E.; Bartstra, J.; Verhaar, H.J.; Koning, H.J. de; Aalst, C.M. van der; Oudkerk, M.; Vliegenthart, R.; Lammers, J.-W.J.; Jong, P.A. de; Mohamed Hoesein, F.A.A.

2017-01-01

Objectives: Cigarette smoking negatively affects bone quality and increases fracture risk. Little is known on the effect of smoking cessation and computed tomography (CT)-derived bone mineral density (BMD) decline in the spine. We evaluated the association of current and former smoking with BMD decline after 3-year follow-up. Methods: Male current and former smokers participating in a lung cancer screening trial who underwent baseline and 3-year follow-up CT were included. BMD was measured by manual placement of a region of interest in the first lumbar vertebra and expressed in Hounsfield Unit (HU). Multiple linear regression analysis was used to evaluate the association between pack years smoked and smoking status with BMD decline. Results: 408 participants were included with median (25th–75th percentile) age of 59.4 (55.9–63.5) years. At the start of the study, 197 (48.3%) participants were current smokers and 211 (51.7%) were former smokers and had a similar amount of pack years. Current smokers had quit smoking for 6 (4–8) years prior to inclusion. There was no difference in BMD between current and former smokers at baseline (109 ± 34 HU vs. 108 ± 32 HU, p = 0.96). At 3-year follow-up, current smokers had a mean BMD decline of −3 ± 13 HU (p = 0.001), while BMD in former smokers did not change as compared to baseline (1 ± 13 HU, p = 0.34). After adjustment for BMD at baseline and body mass index, current smoking was independently associated with BMD decline (−3.8 HU, p = 0.003). Age, pack years, and the presence of a fracture at baseline did not associate with BMD decline. Conclusions: Current smokers showed a more rapid BMD decline over a 3-year period compared to former smokers. This information might be important to identify subjects at risk for osteoporosis and emphasizes the importance of smoking cessation in light of BMD decline.

Bone density loss on computed tomography at 3-year follow-up in current compared to former male smokers

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pompe, E., E-mail: e.pompe@umcutrecht.nl [Department of Pulmonology, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht (Netherlands); Bartstra, J. [Department of Radiology, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht (Netherlands); Verhaar, H.J. [Department of Geriatric Medicine, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht (Netherlands); Koning, H.J. de; Aalst, C.M. van der [Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC − University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam (Netherlands); Oudkerk, M. [University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen, Department of Radiology (Netherlands); Vliegenthart, R. [University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen, Department of Radiology (Netherlands); University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Center for Medical Imaging-North East Netherlands, Groningen (Netherlands); Lammers, J.-W.J. [Department of Pulmonology, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht (Netherlands); Jong, P.A. de; Mohamed Hoesein, F.A.A. [Department of Radiology, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht (Netherlands)

2017-04-15

Objectives: Cigarette smoking negatively affects bone quality and increases fracture risk. Little is known on the effect of smoking cessation and computed tomography (CT)-derived bone mineral density (BMD) decline in the spine. We evaluated the association of current and former smoking with BMD decline after 3-year follow-up. Methods: Male current and former smokers participating in a lung cancer screening trial who underwent baseline and 3-year follow-up CT were included. BMD was measured by manual placement of a region of interest in the first lumbar vertebra and expressed in Hounsfield Unit (HU). Multiple linear regression analysis was used to evaluate the association between pack years smoked and smoking status with BMD decline. Results: 408 participants were included with median (25th–75th percentile) age of 59.4 (55.9–63.5) years. At the start of the study, 197 (48.3%) participants were current smokers and 211 (51.7%) were former smokers and had a similar amount of pack years. Current smokers had quit smoking for 6 (4–8) years prior to inclusion. There was no difference in BMD between current and former smokers at baseline (109 ± 34 HU vs. 108 ± 32 HU, p = 0.96). At 3-year follow-up, current smokers had a mean BMD decline of −3 ± 13 HU (p = 0.001), while BMD in former smokers did not change as compared to baseline (1 ± 13 HU, p = 0.34). After adjustment for BMD at baseline and body mass index, current smoking was independently associated with BMD decline (−3.8 HU, p = 0.003). Age, pack years, and the presence of a fracture at baseline did not associate with BMD decline. Conclusions: Current smokers showed a more rapid BMD decline over a 3-year period compared to former smokers. This information might be important to identify subjects at risk for osteoporosis and emphasizes the importance of smoking cessation in light of BMD decline.

Conflict in the Currents: The Cross-boundary Consequences of Larval Dispersal

Science.gov (United States)

Rising, J. A.; Ramesh, N.; Dookie, D.

2016-02-01

As commercial fish populations decline in many regions, the increasing demand for ocean resources can create conflicts along international boundaries. Because fish stock ranges do not respect political boundaries, neighboring countries can impact each other through the management of the stocks within their exclusive economic zones. By combining spawning and larvae information from the FishBase database with current velocities from ocean reanalyses using a particle tracking scheme, we construct a measure of the cross-boundary diffusion of fish larvae for 40 major exploited species. These flows represent important connections both for fish populations and for fisheries and the people who depend on them, but these connections rely on fisheries management in the 'source' countries. We then use socioeconomic data on the national importance of these fish to identify hotspots for potential conflict. Finally, we consider how ranges will shift under climate change, and the social impacts of these shifts.

Institution, Financial Sector, and Economic Growth: Use The Institutions As An Instrument Variable

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Albertus Girik Allo

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Institution has been investigated having indirect role on economic growth. This paper aims to evaluate whether the quality of institution matters for economic growth. By applying institution as instrumental variable at Foreign Direct Investment (FDI, quality of institution significantly influence economic growth. This study applies two set of data period, namely 1985-2013 and 2000-2013, available online in the World Bank (WB. The first data set, 1985-2013 is used to estimate the role of financial sector on economic growth, focuses on 67 countries. The second data set, 2000-2013 determine the role of institution on financial sector and economic growth by applying 2SLS estimation method. We define institutional variables as set of indicators: Control of Corruption, Political Stability and Absence of Violence, and Voice and Accountability provide declining impact of FDI to economic growth.

The legacy of slavery and contemporary declines in heart disease mortality in the U.S. South

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael R. Kramer

2017-12-01

Conclusions: Nearly 50 years of declining heart disease mortality is a major public health success, but one marked by uneven progress by place and race. At the county level, progress in heart disease mortality reduction among Blacks is associated with place-based historical legacy of slavery. Effective and equitable public health prevention efforts should consider the historical context of place and the social and economic institutions that may play a role in facilitating or impeding diffusion of prevention efforts thereby producing heart healthy places and populations.

Evaluating the Association between Diabetes, Cognitive Decline and Dementia

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Omorogieva Ojo

2015-07-01

Full Text Available The aim of this article is to review the association between diabetes mellitus, cognitive decline and dementia, including the effects of cognitive decline and dementia on self management of diabetes. This is a literature review of primary research articles. A number of contemporary research articles that met the inclusion criteria were selected for this review paper. These articles were selected using a number of search strategies and electronic databases, such as EBSCOhost Research and SwetsWise databases. The duration of diabetes, glycated haemoglobin levels and glycaemic fluctuations were associated with cognitive decline and dementia. Similarly, hypoglycaemia was significantly related to increased risk of developing cognitive decline and dementia. Furthermore, cognitive decline and dementia were associated with poorer diabetes management. There is evidence of the association between diabetes, cognitive decline and dementia including the shared pathogenesis between diabetes and Alzheimer’s disease. In addition, the self management of diabetes is affected by dementia and cognitive decline. It could be suggested that the association between diabetes and dementia is bidirectional with the potential to proceed to a vicious cycle. Further studies are needed in order to fully establish the relationship between diabetes, cognitive decline and dementia. Patients who have diabetes and dementia could benefit from structured education strategies, which should involve empowerment programmes and lifestyle changes. The detection of cognitive decline should highlight the need for education strategies.

Kinship and the decline of fertility.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Y

1996-01-01

China's family planning and population control policies, together with the move toward a more market-oriented economy since the 1980s, have led to significant change in people's reproductive values and behavior and a substantial decline in fertility. Traditional kinship in China, its terminology, and the impact of fertility decline on kinship in China and Chinese society are discussed. The decline in fertility is affecting or will affect China's kinship system, the corresponding pattern of terminology, and the social structure. In the more market-oriented economy which has been developing in China, the simplification of the kinship system will help change the structure of Chinese society and weaken the traditional patriarchal culture. A more individualized, contractualized social structure and relationships will result.

SERVICES IN GORJ COUNTY IN ECONOMIC CRISIS SITUATIONS

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RĂBONTU CECILIA IRINA

2011-03-01

Full Text Available In this paper we propose a synthetic analysis of the evolution of the tertiary sector in Gorj county under the pressure of the economic crisis that is felt now more than ever, the tertiary sector whos activities resulted in extremely diverse and constantly expanding services in our county as well. Like other regions of Romania, Gorj county is facing a new situation: after the period 2001-2008 when there has been growth, started a period marked by crisis, outcome of the effect of economic and financial crisis that broke out in the U.S. in October 2008. The economic crisis raises even more problems further enhancing poverty due to lower employment, as well as the decline in purchasing power especially among low-income population, under the impact of inflation and restrictive policies in wages, issues that are consequential to the stage of development of services in Gorj County.

Marine current energy devices: Current status and possible future applications in Ireland

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rourke, Fergal O.; Boyle, Fergal; Reynolds, Anthony

2010-01-01

There is a growing demand for the use of renewable energy technologies to generate electricity due to concerns over climate change. The oceans provide a huge potential resource of energy. Energy extraction using marine current energy devices (MCEDs) offers a sustainable alternative to conventional sources and a predictable alternative to other renewable energy technologies. A MCED utilises the kinetic energy of the tides as opposed to the potential energy which is utilised by a tidal barrage. Over the past decade MCEDs have become an increasingly popular method of energy extraction. However, marine current energy technology is still not economically viable on a large scale due to its current stage of development. Ireland has an excellent marine current energy resource as it is an island nation and experiences excellent marine current flows. This paper reviews marine current energy devices, including a detailed up-to-date description of the current status of development. Issues such as network integration, economics, and environmental implications are addressed as well as the application and costs of MCEDs in Ireland. (author)

Do weak institutions prolong crises? : On the identification, characteristics, and duration of declines during economic slumps

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bluhm, R; de Crombrugghe, D.P.I.; Szirmai, A.

2013-01-01

This working paper is part of the research programme on ‘Institutions, Governance and Long‐term Economic Growth’, a partnership between the French Development Agency (AFD) and the Maastricht Graduate School of Governance (Maastricht University - UNU-Merit). The research builds on the Institutional

Reproductive health laws and fertility decline in Ghana.

Science.gov (United States)

Finlay, Jocelyn E; Fox, Ashley M

2013-11-01

An unresolved debate in demography concerns the causal sequence between the supply of contraception and the demand for smaller families in fertility decline. Through a mixed-methods approach, we explored the effect of a sudden increase in access to legal abortion on subsequent fertility decline when Ghana's criminal code was amended in 1985. Using Ghana Demographic and Health Surveys, we constructed a panel of women aged 15-34 years and undertook a spline regression analysis to examine the effect of legal changes in 1985 and fertility decline controlling for social determinants of fertility. In addition, we conducted 17 key informant interviews (KIIs) to understand the reasons for the legal change and competing explanations for fertility decline. Multivariate results indicated that the timing of the liberalization of the abortion law coincided with the onset of Ghana's fertility decline. The KIIs indicated that the reasons for the liberalization of reproductive health laws were in response to famine and physician advocacy. While the timing of the abortion law liberalization coincided with the fertility decline in Ghana, we are unable to decouple the effect of the legal change from the effects of a severe famine that affected the region at the same time. Further research on documented and undocumented abortion in Ghana should be conducted to validate the contribution of legal abortion to fertility decline. © 2013.

PERSPECTIVES OF INFLATION TARGETING, IN THE CURRENT ECONOMIC CONTEXT

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COROIU SORINA IOANA

2015-04-01

Full Text Available In the context of economic crisis, monetary policy makers are facing a number of challenges, including the selection and implementation of the best monetary policy. In this paper, we want to see if inflation targeting is or is not a solution to exit the economic crisis. If the answer is positive, then what would be the optimal level of inflation? Many central banks target an inflation rate of 2%. In this paper we intend to show that, in certain circumstances, a very low level of inflation can significantly reduce the stabilizing effects of monetary policy. A slightly higher value of inflation targeting would reduce the constraints on monetary policy, caused by the appearance of liquidity trap. The risk for the interest rates of monetary policy to achieve zero level is related to the central banks’ choise of the appropriate inflation target. We believe that an increase in the inflation target of 2% to 4% would ease monetary policy constraints arising from the liquidity trap problem. If inflation targeting is not a solution to exit the crisis, then are there other strategies that would be a better alternative? Following this analysis, no obvious alternatives were identified, so far, there is no clear reason for that to abandon inflation targeting.

Nuclear energy: current situation and prospects to 2020.

Science.gov (United States)

Ion, Sue

2007-04-15

For close to half a century nuclear fission has been providing reliable supplies of electricity to the UK, with virtually no emissions of carbon dioxide. Over that period, the UK nuclear industry has avoided the emission of over one and a half billion tonnes of CO2. Yet no nuclear plant has been built in the UK for over two decades even though many of the stations in our current fleet are now within a decade or so of the end of their lifetime. Without new plants being ordered soon, the UK's nuclear capacity will decline dramatically, from 23% today to 3% post-2020--just as considerations of supply security and climate change are becoming increasingly important. Elsewhere in the world, many countries such as China, India, Japan, South Korea, Finland and France are building new stations. Other countries such as the USA, South Africa, and some nations that currently do not have nuclear stations (such as Indonesia and Poland) are making preparations for future nuclear stations. Globally capacity factors for nuclear plants are higher than they have ever been, averaging around 85% and with the best stations achieving well over 90%. Lifetime can be 60 years. That the economics of such stations compete well with other technologies is well founded and easily verifiable--especially in the face of rising fossil fuel prices and the pricing in of costs for CO2 emissions--both of which stand to improve the economics of nuclear energy still further. Waste volumes arising from modern plants are just a fraction of those of some earlier stations, and the technologies are in place to deal with them safely and effectively. Following recent reviews and international developments, there is growing confidence that internationally available competitive designs of nuclear plant will provide part of the solution to the UK's long-term energy needs.

Analysis of Current and Future Water Demands in the Upper Indus Basin under IPCC Climate and Socio-Economic Scenarios Using a Hydro-Economic WEAP Model

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Ali Amin

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Pakistan is currently facing physical and economic water scarcity issues that are further complicated by the rapid increase in its population and by climate change. Many studies have focused on the physical water scarcity using hydrological modeling and the measurement of the impact of climate change on water resources in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB. However, few studies have concentrated on the importance of the economic water scarcity, that is, the water management issue under the looming impacts of climate change and the population explosion of Pakistan. The purpose of this study is to develop a management strategy which helps to achieve water security and sustainability in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB with the help of different socio-economic and climate change scenarios using WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning modeling. The streamflow data of five sub-basins (Gilgit, Hunza, Shigar, Shyok, and Astore and the entire Upper Indus Basin (UIB were calibrated (2006–2010 and validated (2011–2014 in the WEAP model. The coefficient of determination and Nash Sutcliffe values for the calibration period ranged from 0.81–0.96. The coefficient of determination and the Nash Sutcliffe values for the validation period ranged from 0.85–0.94. After the development of the WEAP model, the analysis of the unmet water demand and percent coverage of the water demand for the period of 2006–2050 was computed. Different scenarios were generated for external driving factors (population growth, urbanization, and living standards and the impact of climate change to evaluate their effect on the current water supply system. The results indicated that the future unmet water demand is likely to reach 134 million cubic meters (mcm by the year 2050 and that the external driving factors are putting more pressure on the supply service. This study further explores the importance of proposed dams (likely to be built until 2025 by WAPDA (Water and Power Development

PUBLIC SECTOR - CONCEPTUAL ELEMENTS, IMPLICATIONS IN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL LIFE

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Florina Popa

2017-07-01

Full Text Available The public economy, branch of economic science analyses the state, as economic actor; its field of research interacts with investigations of other areas of economic science (monetary, international trade, market organization etc.. The state has experienced various stages of manifestation of its role in the economy, against the changes in society, which led to either an increase in its intervention, to regulate market phenomena, the recovery of economic activity in times of crisis, or to its decline against the modernization of the economies of industrialized countries, the increase of the role of entrepreneurs, technological progress. Thus, the development of economic science, changes in economic area, the emergence of capitalism, of industrialization in the nineteenth century, especially the second half, outlined a new role towards state intervention in economic life; in the context of new economic developments of the last decades of the twentieth century, the interventionist role of the state has diminished, the state giving up certain activities, in return for initiating other actions (privatization, reducing state monopoly, deregulation.nThe paper presents conceptual elements referring to public sector, peculiarities that distinguish it from the private sector, as well as issues about the state implication in the economic life, in different periods of evolution of society.

Review: Current Approaches to Business and Institutional Translation. Proceedings of the International Conference on Economic, Business, Financial and Institutional Translation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Miguel Tolosa Igualada

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Daniel Gallego-Hernández (ed.. Current Approaches to Business and Institutional Translation. Proceedings of the International Conference on Economic, Business, Financial and Institutional Translation / Enfoques actuales en traducción económica e institucional. Actas del Congreso Internacional de Traducción Económica, Comercial, Financiera e Institucional. Suíça: Peter Lang, 2015, 254 páginas. ISBN 978-3-0343-1656-9.

Demographic Trends in Germany and their Economic Implications

OpenAIRE

Rembrandt Scholz; Carsten Schröder

2012-01-01

The present paper explores demographic trends in Germany, as well as the determinants of these trends, and the economic implications of these demographic changes for the country. A detailed spatial analysis reveals substantial differences in the speed and intensity of the processes of population aging and population decline across the German regions. The results indicate that these processes are particularly pronounced in the state of Mecklenburg Western-Pomerania. As a new contribution to th...

Starlite figures of merit for tokamak current drive - economic analysis of pulsed and steady state power plants with various engineering and physics performance parameters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ehst, D.A.

1995-09-01

The physics efficiency of current drive (γ B ∝ n e I o R o /P CD ), including the bootstrap effect, needs to exceed certain goals in order to provide economical steady state operation compared to pulsed power plants. The goal for γ B depends not only on engineering performance of the current drive system, but also on normalized beta and the effective safety factor of the achievable MHD equilibrium

STARLITE figures of merit for tokamak current drive -- Economic analysis of pulsed and steady state power plants with various engineering and physics performance parameters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ehst, D.A.; Jardin, S.; Kessel, C.

1995-10-01

The physics efficiency of current drive (γ B ∝ n e I 0 R 0 /P CD ), including the bootstrap effect, needs to exceed certain goals in order to provide economical steady state operation compared to pulsed power plants. The goal for γ B depends not only on engineering performance of the current drive system, but also on normalized beta and the effective safety factor of the achievable MHD equilibrium

Regional response to drought during the formation and decline of Preclassic Maya societies

Science.gov (United States)

Ebert, Claire E.; Peniche May, Nancy; Culleton, Brendan J.; Awe, Jaime J.; Kennett, Douglas J.

2017-10-01

The earliest complex societies and a distinctive set of pan-regional social, political, and economic institutions appeared in the southern Maya lowlands during the Preclassic period (ca. 1200/1100 cal BCE-cal 300 CE). The timing of these cultural changes was variably influenced by local developments, interaction with other regions of Mesoamerica, and climate change. We present a high-resolution radiocarbon chronology for the growth of the early polity of Cahal Pech, Belize, one of the first permanent settlements in the southern Maya lowlands. We compare our results to a database containing over 1190 radiocarbon dates from cultural contexts reported from five major regions of the southern lowlands to interpret the expansion and decline of emerging complex social groups during the Preclassic. Comparisons to paleoclimate proxy datasets suggest that fluctuating climate regimes may have promoted alternating integration and fragmentation of early hierarchically organized societies. Stable climatic conditions during the Middle Preclassic (1000/900-300 cal BCE) fostered the centralization of populations and the formation of large regional polities across the southern lowlands. An extended drought at the end of the Late Preclassic (cal 150-300 CE) likely contributed to the decline of some major polities in the central Petén, but smaller sites located in productive environments were more resilient and persisted in to the Classic period. This research provides a framework for understanding the complex social and environmental factors that influenced localized adaptations to climate change and the episodic growth and decline of early complex societies in prehistory.

Structuring Economic Power for Stability Operations

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Wallen, Andrew T

2006-01-01

.... By their nature, these operations have a strong economic context. This thesis provides a methodology for evaluating current institutional structures and economic doctrines being forged among various government agencies...

Economic Stress, Emotional Quality of Life, and Problem Behavior in Chinese Adolescents with and without Economic Disadvantage

Science.gov (United States)

Shek, Daniel T. L.

2005-01-01

The relationships between perceived economic stress (current economic hardship and future economic worry) and emotional quality of life (existential well-being, life satisfaction, self-esteem, sense of mastery, psychological morbidity) as well as problem behavior (substance abuse and delinquency) were examined in 1519 Chinese adolescents with and…

Climate Change Predominantly Caused U.S. Soil Water Storage Decline from 2003 to 2014

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, X.; Ma, C.; Song, X.; Gao, L.; Liu, M.; Xu, X.

2016-12-01

The water storage in soils is a fundamental resource for natural ecosystems and human society, while it is highly variable due to its complicated controlling factors in a changing climate; therefore, understanding water storage variation and its controlling factors is essential for sustaining human society, which relies on water resources. Although we are confident for water availability at global scale, the regional-scale water storage and its controlling factors are not fully understood. A number of researchers have reported that water resources are expected to diminish as climate continues warming in the 21stcentury, which will further influence human and ecological systems. However, few studies to date have fully quantitatively examined the water balances and its individual controlling mechanisms in the conterminous US. In this study, we integrated the time-series data of water storage and evapotranspiration derived from satellite imageries, regional meteorological data, and social-economic water consumption, to quantify water storage dynamics and its controlling factors across the conterminous US from 2003 to 2014. The water storage decline was found in majority of conterminous US, with the largest decline in southwestern US. Net atmospheric water input, which is difference between precipitation and evapotranspiration, could explain more than 50% of the inter-annual variation of water storage variation in majority of US with minor contributions from human water consumption. Climate change, expressed as precipitation decreases and warming, made dominant contribution to the water storage decline in the conterminous U.S. from 2003 to 2014.

Intrastate Dynamics in the Context of Hegemonic Decline: A Case Study of China’s Arms Transfer Regime

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhifan Luo

2017-02-01

Full Text Available The decline of a hegemon can create openings for lesser powers to expand their influence in the world-system. Is this what China is currently attempting to do? This paper contributes to this on-going debate by examining China’s arms transfer activities from a historical perspective. Using data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute arms transfer database and the World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers database, I argue that the Chinese arms transfer regime has evolved through three phases. In Phase One, China used gifts of arms to compete with the Soviet Union and to expand influence among Third World countries. In Phase Two, China used arms exports mainly to assist national developmental projects. Only evidence in Phase Three supports the emergence of a global strategy that attempts to extend China’s economic, political, and possibly military outreach. This paper suggests that though China has not yet become a contender for world hegemony as Arrighi argues (2007, China has formulated a globally-focused agenda which, in the medium-term, could extend its influence in regions where U.S. domination is relatively weak.

Crowdsourced estimation of cognitive decline and resilience in Alzheimer's disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Allen, Genevera I; Amoroso, Nicola; Anghel, Catalina; Balagurusamy, Venkat; Bare, Christopher J; Beaton, Derek; Bellotti, Roberto; Bennett, David A; Boehme, Kevin L; Boutros, Paul C; Caberlotto, Laura; Caloian, Cristian; Campbell, Frederick; Chaibub Neto, Elias; Chang, Yu-Chuan; Chen, Beibei; Chen, Chien-Yu; Chien, Ting-Ying; Clark, Tim; Das, Sudeshna; Davatzikos, Christos; Deng, Jieyao; Dillenberger, Donna; Dobson, Richard J B; Dong, Qilin; Doshi, Jimit; Duma, Denise; Errico, Rosangela; Erus, Guray; Everett, Evan; Fardo, David W; Friend, Stephen H; Fröhlich, Holger; Gan, Jessica; St George-Hyslop, Peter; Ghosh, Satrajit S; Glaab, Enrico; Green, Robert C; Guan, Yuanfang; Hong, Ming-Yi; Huang, Chao; Hwang, Jinseub; Ibrahim, Joseph; Inglese, Paolo; Iyappan, Anandhi; Jiang, Qijia; Katsumata, Yuriko; Kauwe, John S K; Klein, Arno; Kong, Dehan; Krause, Roland; Lalonde, Emilie; Lauria, Mario; Lee, Eunjee; Lin, Xihui; Liu, Zhandong; Livingstone, Julie; Logsdon, Benjamin A; Lovestone, Simon; Ma, Tsung-Wei; Malhotra, Ashutosh; Mangravite, Lara M; Maxwell, Taylor J; Merrill, Emily; Nagorski, John; Namasivayam, Aishwarya; Narayan, Manjari; Naz, Mufassra; Newhouse, Stephen J; Norman, Thea C; Nurtdinov, Ramil N; Oyang, Yen-Jen; Pawitan, Yudi; Peng, Shengwen; Peters, Mette A; Piccolo, Stephen R; Praveen, Paurush; Priami, Corrado; Sabelnykova, Veronica Y; Senger, Philipp; Shen, Xia; Simmons, Andrew; Sotiras, Aristeidis; Stolovitzky, Gustavo; Tangaro, Sabina; Tateo, Andrea; Tung, Yi-An; Tustison, Nicholas J; Varol, Erdem; Vradenburg, George; Weiner, Michael W; Xiao, Guanghua; Xie, Lei; Xie, Yang; Xu, Jia; Yang, Hojin; Zhan, Xiaowei; Zhou, Yunyun; Zhu, Fan; Zhu, Hongtu; Zhu, Shanfeng

2016-06-01

Identifying accurate biomarkers of cognitive decline is essential for advancing early diagnosis and prevention therapies in Alzheimer's disease. The Alzheimer's disease DREAM Challenge was designed as a computational crowdsourced project to benchmark the current state-of-the-art in predicting cognitive outcomes in Alzheimer's disease based on high dimensional, publicly available genetic and structural imaging data. This meta-analysis failed to identify a meaningful predictor developed from either data modality, suggesting that alternate approaches should be considered for prediction of cognitive performance. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The main issues preventing Kosovo’s economic development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Demir Lima

2017-11-01

Full Text Available This study provides an analysis of several problematic factors preventing Kosovo’s economic development. Several sectors that could have been the main pillars of economic development, such as manufacturing, energy, mines and minerals, and other economic sectors have been neglected from the development by domestic institutions or were used clandestinely by certain interest groups, whose focus was not in the development of the country but rather their personal gain. Trade remained the preferred activity throughout these years, which cannot be considered a beneficial sector for economic development, as much as manufacturing, which remains to date as Kosovo’s most underdeveloped sector. As long as Kosovo’s exports cover only 12% of total imports, no economic growth can be expected. Kosovo’s failure to attract strategic investors in years, which could open new jobs, has also contributed its lack of sufficient economic development. Thus, the most concerning issue during this period is the decline in foreign direct investments, which were expected to increase after the declaration of independence. In the lack of a long-term development strategy for certain sectors or priority activities, such as mines, energy, industry etc., there is no progress in the country's economic development. The main issue is that we should only favor those activities or identify segments where we have competitive advantages compared to other countries.

Marketing and Economic Analysis of Potatoes Irradiation in Egypt

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

El-Khateeb, M.A.; El-Hayawan, H.

1999-01-01

The aim of this work is to examine the marketing, economic and financial feasibility of a project for potatoes irradiation in Egypt. The Egyptian market of potatoes was described and analyzed considering the production size distributed over several years, methods of preservation and storage, percentage of loss and cost for each method, distribution channels and packing materials. The financial and economic analysis of the establishment of a pallet conveyor unit for the irradiation of potatoes was also carried out . The following investment criteria were utilized for the commercial evaluation : benefit - cost radio , payback period, average rate of return and net present value . The results of this analysis showed that the installation of a unit for the irradiation of potatoes in Egypt would be economically viable. The unit of irradiation would decline if the irradiator is used as a multipurpose facility

Marketing and Economic Analysis of Garlic Irradiation in Egypt

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

El-Khateeb, M.A.

2000-01-01

The aim of this work is to examine the marketing , economic and financial feasibility of a project for garlic irradiation in Egypt. The Egyptian market of garlic was described and analyzed considering the production size distributed over several years, methods of preservation and storage, percentage of loss and cost for each method and distribution channels. The financial and economic analysis of the establishment of A tote Box unit for the irradiation of garlic was also carried out. The following investment criteria were utilized for the commercial evaluation : benefit-cost ratio, payback period, average rate of return and net present value. The results of this analysis showed that the installation of a unit for the irradiation of garlic in Egypt would be economically viable. The unit cost of irradiation would decline if the irradiator is used as a multipurpose facility

Economic conditions and suicide rates in New York City.

Science.gov (United States)

Nandi, Arijit; Prescott, Marta R; Cerdá, Magdalena; Vlahov, David; Tardiff, Kenneth J; Galea, Sandro

2012-03-15

Extant analyses of the relation between economic conditions and population health were often based on annualized data and were susceptible to confounding by nonlinear time trends. In the present study, the authors used generalized additive models with nonparametric smoothing splines to examine the association between economic conditions, including levels of economic activity in New York State and the degree of volatility in the New York Stock Exchange, and monthly rates of death by suicide in New York City. The rate of suicide declined linearly from 8.1 per 100,000 people in 1990 to 4.8 per 100,000 people in 1999 and then remained stable from 1999 to 2006. In a generalized additive model in which the authors accounted for long-term and seasonal time trends, there was a negative association between monthly levels of economic activity and rates of suicide; the predicted rate of suicide was 0.12 per 100,000 persons lower when economic activity was at its peak compared with when it was at its nadir. The relation between economic activity and suicide differed by race/ethnicity and sex. Stock market volatility was not associated with suicide rates. Further work is needed to elucidate pathways that link economic conditions and suicide.

Small Scale Farmers’ Indigenous Agricultural Adaptation Options in the Face of Declining or Stagnant Crop Yields in the Fako and Meme Divisions of Cameroon

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Terence Epule Epule

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Research has proven that, at a national scale in Cameroon, arable crop production is either declining or stagnant. In the face of these trends, governments, local and international organizations, communities and peasant farmers have developed adaptation options to sustain arable production and reduce poverty. Given this general context, and based on population perceptions and four study sites in the Southwest region of Cameroon, this study aims at verifying current trends in arable production and farmers’ adaptation options based on their indigenous knowledge. These analyses are based on the administration of 200 questionnaires and two focus group discussions (FGDs. The data were analysed using SPSS version 20 in which frequencies, percentages and means were calculated. In addition, the chi-squared statistical test of goodness of fit was calculated and the stated hypothesis was validated accordingly. The FGDs were analysed through verbatim transcriptions and with the aid of the context analysis software, Wordstat 7. The results show that current yields (2010–2014 in all the study sites are declining due to deforestation, poor governance, inadequate access to farm inputs such as fertilizers, increased economic opportunities elsewhere and a breakdown of cultural practices, while 10 years (2000–2010 previously, they had been increasing. It has also been found that the main adaptation options/coping mechanisms reported by the respondents in order of highest frquencies are: expansion of farm size, help from relatives and dependents that live on the farm, supplemental occupations or livelihood diversification and usage of organic fertilizers. From the chi-squared test, the alternate hypothesis that, “there is some difference between population proportions for different adaptation options or coping mechanisms” is validated.

Reports of coal’s terminal decline may be exaggerated

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Edenhofer, Ottmar; Steckel, Jan Christoph; Jakob, Michael; Bertram, Christoph

2018-02-01

We estimate the cumulative future emissions expected to be released by coal power plants that are currently under construction, announced, or planned. Even though coal consumption has recently declined and plans to build new coal-fired capacities have been shelved, constructing all these planned coal-fired power plants would endanger national and international climate targets. Plans to build new coal-fired power capacity would likely undermine the credibility of some countries’ (Intended) Nationally Determined Contributions submitted to the UNFCCC. If all the coal-fired power plants that are currently planned were built, the carbon budget for reaching the 2 °C temperature target would nearly be depleted. Propositions about ‘coal’s terminal decline’ may thereby be premature. The phase-out of coal requires dedicated and well-designed policies. We discuss the political economy of policy options that could avoid a continued build-up of coal-fired power plants.

Greenhouse gas impacts of declining hydrocarbon resource quality: Depletion, dynamics, and process emissions

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Brandt, Adam Robert

This dissertation explores the environmental and economic impacts of the transition to hydrocarbon substitutes for conventional petroleum (SCPs). First, mathematical models of oil depletion are reviewed, including the Hubbert model, curve-fitting methods, simulation models, and economic models. The benefits and drawbacks of each method are outlined. I discuss the predictive value of the models and our ability to determine if one model type works best. I argue that forecasting oil depletion without also including substitution with SCPs results in unrealistic projections of future energy supply. I next use information theoretic techniques to test the Hubbert model of oil depletion against five other asymmetric and symmetric curve-fitting models using data from 139 oil producing regions. I also test the assumptions that production curves are symmetric and that production is more bell-shaped in larger regions. Results show that if symmetry is enforced, Gaussian production curves perform best, while if asymmetry is allowed, asymmetric exponential models prove most useful. I also find strong evidence for asymmetry: production declines are consistently less steep than inclines. In order to understand the impacts of oil depletion on GHG emissions, I developed the Regional Optimization Model for Emissions from Oil Substitutes (ROMEO). ROMEO is an economic optimization model of investment and production of fuels. Results indicate that incremental emissions (with demand held constant) from SCPs could be 5-20 GtC over the next 50 years. These results are sensitive to the endowment of conventional oil and not sensitive to a carbon tax. If demand can vary, total emissions could decline under a transition because the higher cost of SCPs lessens overall fuel consumption. Lastly, I study the energetic and environmental characteristics of the in situ conversion process, which utilizes electricity to generate liquid hydrocarbons from oil shale. I model the energy inputs and outputs

REDISCOVERING MISES-HAYEK MONETARY AND BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY IN LIGHT OF THE CURRENT CRISIS: CREDIT EXPANSION AS A SOURCE OF ECONOMIC BOOM AND BUST

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Marcin Mrowiec

2013-10-01

Full Text Available The article starts with a brief description of Mises’ monetary theory, with emphasis on the Misesian differentiation of two kinds of credit: commodity and circulation credit, and with the description of the impact of circulation credit expansion on the business cycle. Further on it is described how Mises’ insights constituted the kernel of Austrian Business Cycle Theory, and how the same observations on the nature of credit constituted the kernel of the Chicago Plan (though Mises’ views on the nature of credit led him to different conculsions than it led the authors of the Chicago Plan, and how this plan is being “rediscovered” now. The following sections deal with observations of one of the preeminent current macroeconomic researches, Mr. Claudio Borio, on the elasticity of credit as the source of the current crisis, and on the importance of the financial cycle in analysing the current economic crisis. The author of this text demonstrates that Austrian Business Cycle Theory gave the same answer regarding the sources of economic crises that now modern macroeconomic theory seems to be approaching, and that the postulates for successful financial cycle modeling are already included in the ABCT. Finally, some observations on the current crisis, as well as proposals of avenues of further research are proposed.

A Sustained Decline in Postmenopausal Hormone Use: Results From the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 1999–2010

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Sprague, Brian L.; Trentham-Dietz, Amy; Cronin, Kathleen A.

2012-01-01

Objective Short-term declines in postmenopausal hormone use were observed following the Women’s Health Initiative trial results in 2002. While concerns about the trial’s generalizability have been expressed, long-term trends in hormone use in a nationally representative sample have not been reported. We sought to evaluate national trends in the prevalence of hormone use, and assess variation by type of formulation and patient characteristics. Methods We examined postmenopausal hormone use during 1999–2010 using cross-sectional data on 10,107 women aged 40 years and older in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Results In 1999–2000, the prevalence of oral postmenopausal hormone use was 22.4% (95% CI: 19.0, 25.8) overall, 16.8% (95% CI: 14.2, 19.3) for estrogen only, and 5.2% (95% CI: 3.6, 6.8) for estrogen plus progestin. A sharp decline in use of all formulations occurred in 2003–2004, when the overall prevalence dropped to 11.9% (95% CI: 9.6, 14.2). This decline was initially limited to non-Hispanic whites; use among non-Hispanic blacks and Hispanics did not decline substantially until 2005–2006. Hormone use continued to decline through 2009–2010 across all patient demographic groups, with the current prevalence now at 4.7% (95% CI: 3.3, 6.1) overall, 2.9% (95% CI: 2.1, 3.7) for estrogen only, and 1.5% (95% CI: 0.5, 2.5) for estrogen plus progestin. Patient characteristics currently associated with hormone use include history of hysterectomy, non-Hispanic white race or ethnicity, and income. Conclusions Postmenopausal hormone use in the United States has declined in a sustained fashion to very low levels across a wide variety of patient subgroups. PMID:22914469

Effects of economic downturns on child mortality: a global economic analysis, 1981–2010

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Maruthappu, Mahiben; Watson, Robert A; Watkins, Johnathan; Zeltner, Thomas; Raine, Rosalind; Atun, Rifat

2017-01-01

Objectives To analyse how economic downturns affect child mortality both globally and among subgroups of countries of variable income levels. Design Retrospective observational study using economic data from the World Bank's Development Indicators and Global Development Finance (2013 edition). Child mortality data were sourced from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Setting Global. Participants 204 countries between 1981 and 2010. Main outcome measures Child mortality, controlling for country-specific differences in political, healthcare, cultural, structural, educational and economic factors. Results 197 countries experienced at least 1 economic downturn between 1981 and 2010, with a mean of 7.97 downturns per country (range 0–21; SD 0.45). At the global level, downturns were associated with significant (p<0.0001) deteriorations in each child mortality measure, in comparison with non-downturn years: neonatal (coefficient: 1.11, 95% CI 0.855 to 1.37), postneonatal (2.00, 95% CI 1.61 to 2.38), child (2.93, 95% CI 2.26 to 3.60) and under 5 years of age (5.44, 95% CI 4.31 to 6.58) mortality rates. Stronger (larger falls in the growth rate of gross domestic product/capita) and longer (lasting 2 years rather than 1) downturns were associated with larger significant deteriorations (p<0.001). During economic downturns, countries in the poorest quartile experienced ∼1½ times greater deterioration in neonatal mortality, compared with their own baseline; a 3-fold deterioration in postneonatal mortality; a 9-fold deterioration in child mortality and a 3-fold deterioration in under-5 mortality, than countries in the wealthiest quartile (p<0.0005). For 1–5 years after downturns ended, each mortality measure continued to display significant deteriorations (p<0.0001). Conclusions Economic downturns occur frequently and are associated with significant deteriorations in child mortality, with worse declines in lower income countries. PMID:28589010

US Historic Declination Calculator

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This programs derives a table of secular change in magnetic declination for a specified point in the conterminous United States. It utilizes the USD polynomial and...

Economic and cultural influences on the decision to leave home in Peninsular Malaysia.

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Johnson, R W; DaVanzo, J

1998-02-01

Although the departure of children from the parental home is an important life-cycle event, few studies have investigated nest-leaving in developing countries. Using retrospective data from the Second Malaysian Family Life Survey, we estimate hazard models of nest-leaving in Peninsular Malaysia. We find that the departure of children, especially sons, responds to economic incentives, including housing costs, family businesses, education, and economic growth, and that ethnic differences in nest-leaving are important. We also find that the median age of departure from home has declined sharply over the past 40 years, a period of rapid social and economic change in Malaysia.

International Aspects of Nigeria's Economic Reforms | Iyoha ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This paper attempts to draw a relationship between Nigeria's previous failed economic reforms and external influences from international financial institutions, which had constantly resulted in chronic economic misfortunes. Now that homegrown economic programmes are currently being undertaken in Africa through ...

The historical aspects and current issues of the development of Russian-Lithuanian economic relations

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Kretinin Gennady

2012-12-01

Full Text Available This article focuses on development of Russian-Lithuanian economic ties. The research and practical significance of this study lies in the identification of the sources of modern Russian-Lithuanian economic cooperation and the prospects of future mutually beneficial economic relations. The first attempt at establishing economic relations was made in 1919. However, young Lithuanian Republic gravitated towards the West, severing ties with the Russian market. However, the initiatives of Lithuanian authorities did not result in successful state building, and the economic situation remained unchanged. The USSR leadership made an effort to improve the living conditions in post-war Lithuania. There were some mistakes made in the relations with the local population that resulted in Lithuanians’ resistance to sovietisation. However, in the conditions of post-war restoration of national economy and acute deficit of material and human resources, the Soviet leadership managed not only to reform and develop a socialistic economy in Lithuania but also to turn it into an industrial republic with developed agriculture and modern manufacturing facilities, whose major industries manufactured products used in nuclear and space technologies, aviation and navigation. The research shows that the post-Soviet period led to a dramatic change in Russian-Lithuanian economic relations; however, these relations retained potential for future development.

Applying economic principles to outcomes analysis.

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Shauver, Melissa J; Chung, Kevin C

2013-04-01

This article presents an introduction to economic outcomes for the plastic surgeon investigator. Types of economic outcomes are introduced and the matter of perspective is discussed. Examples from the plastic surgery literature are presented. The current and future importance of economic outcome measures is emphasized. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Declining world fertility: trends, causes, implications.

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Tsui, A O; Bogue, D J

1978-10-01

This Bulletin examines the evidence that the world's fertility has declined in recent years, the factors that appear to have accounted for the decline, and the implications for fertility and population growth rates to the end of the century. On the basis of a compilation of estimates available for all nations of the world, the authors derive estimates which indicate that the world's total fertility rate dropped from 4.6 to 4.1 births per woman between 1968 and 1975, thanks largely to an earlier and more rapid and universal decline in the fertility of less developed countries (LDCs) than had been anticipated. Statistical analysis of available data suggests that the socioeconomic progress made by LDCs in this period was not great enough to account for more than a proportion of the fertility decline and that organized family planning programs were a major contributing factor. The authors' projections, which are compared to similar projections from the World Bank, the United Nations, and the U.S. Bureau of the Census, indicate that, by the year 2000, less than 1/5 of the world's population will be in the "red danger" circle of explosive population growth (2.1% or more annually); most LDCs will be in a phase of fertility decline; and many of them -- along with most now developed countries -- will be at or near replacement level of fertility. The authors warn that "our optimistic prediction is premised upon a big IF -- if (organized) family planning (in LDCs) continues. It remains imperative that all of the developed nations of the world continue their contribution to this program undiminished."

Current Global Pricing For Human Papillomavirus Vaccines Brings The Greatest Economic Benefits To Rich Countries.

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Herlihy, Niamh; Hutubessy, Raymond; Jit, Mark

2016-02-01

Vaccinating females against human papillomavirus (HPV) prior to the debut of sexual activity is an effective way to prevent cervical cancer, yet vaccine uptake in low- and middle-income countries has been hindered by high vaccine prices. We created an economic model to estimate the distribution of the economic surplus-the sum of all health and economic benefits of a vaccine, minus the costs of development, production, and distribution-among different country income groups and manufacturers for a cohort of twelve-year-old females in 2012. We found that manufacturers may have received economic returns worth five times their original investment in HPV vaccine development. High-income countries gained the greatest economic surplus of any income category, realizing over five times more economic value per vaccinated female than low-income countries did. Subsidizing vaccine prices in low- and middle-income countries could both reduce financial barriers to vaccine adoption and still allow high-income countries to retain their economic surpluses and manufacturers to retain their profits. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

Prevention of cognitive decline: Lifestyle and other issues

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Cyriac George

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Ageing often leads to decline in cognitive abilities. Significant cognitive impairment leads to functional impairment and need for care. Prevention of cognitive decline and delaying its progression would help to reduce the need for long-term care. Both genetic and environmental factors are important determinants of cognitive health in late life. A better cognitive reserve helps to prevent cognitive decline. Cognitive reserve is now considered as a functional reserve rather than a structural reserve. Cognitive reserve can be enhanced through experience. People with higher level of education tend to have higher cognitive reserve. Better cognitive reserve can act as a buffer. Engagement in cognitively stimulating activities may prevent cognitive decline in late life. Physical exercise also improves cognitive health. Aerobic exercises, which improve cardiorespiratory fitness, improve cognitive functions like motor functions, cognitive speed, and auditory and visual attention. Beneficial effects on executive functions are also reported. Healthy diet, especially adherence to Mediterranean diet (MeDi, is considered to be useful in preserving cognitive health. Engagement in social activities might also reduce cognitive decline. Encouraging adherence to a healthy lifestyle and continuing to be physically, socially, and cognitively active seems to be a promising strategy to prevent cognitive decline.

Implications of Declining Enrolment for the Schools of Ontario. A Statement of Effects and Solutions. Final Report. [Incidences de la Baisse des Effectifs Scolaires sur les Ecoles de l'Ontario. Problemes et Solutions. Rapport Final].

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Jackson, R. W. B.

In this final report concerning declining enrollments in Ontario, the problems are defined almost entirely in economic and financial terms, and the solutions expressed in those terms. The first section of the report briefly reviews the essential background, the economic and financial constraints, and finally the demographic facts. The arguments…

How has the economic downturn affected communities and implementation of science-based prevention in the randomized trial of communities that care?

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Kuklinski, Margaret R; Hawkins, J David; Plotnick, Robert D; Abbott, Robert D; Reid, Carolina K

2013-06-01

This study examined implications of the economic downturn that began in December 2007 for the Community Youth Development Study (CYDS), a longitudinal randomized controlled trial of the Communities That Care (CTC) prevention system. The downturn had the potential to affect the internal validity of the CYDS research design and implementation of science-based prevention in study communities. We used archival economic indicators and community key leader reports of economic conditions to assess the extent of the economic downturn in CYDS communities and potential internal validity threats. We also examined whether stronger economic downturn effects were associated with a decline in science-based prevention implementation. Economic indicators suggested the downturn affected CYDS communities to different degrees. We found no evidence of systematic differences in downturn effects in CTC compared to control communities that would threaten internal validity of the randomized trial. The Community Economic Problems scale was a reliable measure of community economic conditions, and it showed criterion validity in relation to several objective economic indicators. CTC coalitions continued to implement science-based prevention to a significantly greater degree than control coalitions 2 years after the downturn began. However, CTC implementation levels declined to some extent as unemployment, the percentage of students qualifying for free lunch, and community economic problems worsened. Control coalition implementation levels were not related to economic conditions before or after the downturn, but mean implementation levels of science-based prevention were also relatively low in both periods.

Economics of license renewal in the U.S. - entergy's perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Young, Garry G.

2003-01-01

License renewal of operating nuclear plants in the United States has become one of the most successful U.S. nuclear regulatory activities in the past few years. In 1995, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) published a revised rule in 10 CFR Part 54 that provided the requirements for an operating nuclear plant to seek license renewal. At that time, many people believed that only a select few operating nuclear plants would pursue license renewal and that most plants would operate for no more than 40 years. By mid-2003, the owners of approximately 52% of the U.S. nuclear fleet of 103 operating nuclear plants have decided to pursue license renewal and more are expected to follow. This change in direction since 1995 can be attributed to the improving economics of U.S. nuclear power plant operation and to the improved regulatory process resulting from the 1995 revision to 10 CFR Part 54. In 2000, Entergy submitted a license renewal application for Arkansas Nuclear One, Unit 1 (ANO-1). This application was the third to be submitted to the NRC at a time when it was still unclear how successful the regulatory process might be. However, less than 17 months later, in June 2001, the NRC granted a renewed operating license for ANO-1 at a total cost of approximately $11 million. Due in part to the ANO-1 license renewal success, Entergy now has tentative plans to pursue license renewal for the entire fleet of operating nuclear power plants. Without license renewal, Entergy's current nuclear fleet capacity of approximately 9,000 MW(e) would begin to decline in 2012. With license renewal, Entergy's nuclear fleet capacity can remain in place until 2032. This projection does not include the expected improvements in capacity due to power uprate that is currently planned. The combination of power uprate and license renewal will add significant economic value to Entergy's nuclear fleet. One of the major factors in strong performance is capacity factor. In 1990, the average

Ecological economics of soil erosion: a review of the current state of knowledge.

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Adhikari, Bhim; Nadella, Karthik

2011-02-01

The economics of land degradation has received relatively little attention until recent years. Although a number of studies have undertaken valuation of ecosystem services ranging from the global to the micro level, and quite a few studies have attempted to quantify the costs of soil erosion, studies that address the full costs of land degradation are still scarce. In this review, we attempt to analyze different land resource modeling and valuation techniques applied in earlier research and the type of data used in these analyses, and to assess their utility for different forms of land resource and management appraisal. We also report on the strengths and weaknesses of different valuation techniques used in studies on the economics of soil erosion, and the relevance of these valuation techniques. We make a case for the need for more appropriate models that can make the analysis more robust in estimating the economic costs of land degradation while recognizing the spatial heterogeneity in biophysical and economic conditions. © 2011 New York Academy of Sciences.

Devil declines and catastrophic cascades: is mesopredator release of feral cats inhibiting recovery of the eastern quoll?

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Bronwyn A Fancourt

Full Text Available The eastern quoll (Dasyurus viverrinus is a medium-sized Australian marsupial carnivore that has recently undergone a rapid and severe population decline over the 10 years to 2009, with no sign of recovery. This decline has been linked to a period of unfavourable weather, but subsequent improved weather conditions have not been matched by quoll recovery. A recent study suggested another mechanism: that declines in Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii populations, due to the spread of the fatal Devil Facial Tumour Disease, have released feral cats (Felis catus from competitive suppression, with eastern quoll declines linked to a subsequent increase in cat sightings. Yet current evidence of intraguild suppression among devils, cats and quolls is scant and equivocal. We therefore assessed the influences of top-down effects on abundance and activity patterns among devils, feral cats and eastern quolls. Between 2011 and 2013, we monitored four carnivore populations using longitudinal trapping and camera surveys, and performed camera surveys at 12 additional sites throughout the eastern quoll's range. We did not find evidence of a negative relationship between devil and cat abundance, nor of higher cat abundance in areas where devil populations had declined the longest. Cats did not appear to avoid devils spatially; however, there was evidence of temporal separation of cat and devil activity, with reduced separation and increasing nocturnal activity observed in areas where devils had declined the longest. Cats and quolls used the same areas, and there was no evidence that cat and quoll abundances were negatively related. Temporal overlap in observed cat and quoll activity was higher in summer than in winter, but this seasonal difference was unrelated to devil declines. We suggest that cats did not cause the recent quoll decline, but that predation of juvenile quolls by cats could be inhibiting low density quoll populations from recovering their

Devil declines and catastrophic cascades: is mesopredator release of feral cats inhibiting recovery of the eastern quoll?

Science.gov (United States)

Fancourt, Bronwyn A; Hawkins, Clare E; Cameron, Elissa Z; Jones, Menna E; Nicol, Stewart C

2015-01-01

The eastern quoll (Dasyurus viverrinus) is a medium-sized Australian marsupial carnivore that has recently undergone a rapid and severe population decline over the 10 years to 2009, with no sign of recovery. This decline has been linked to a period of unfavourable weather, but subsequent improved weather conditions have not been matched by quoll recovery. A recent study suggested another mechanism: that declines in Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii) populations, due to the spread of the fatal Devil Facial Tumour Disease, have released feral cats (Felis catus) from competitive suppression, with eastern quoll declines linked to a subsequent increase in cat sightings. Yet current evidence of intraguild suppression among devils, cats and quolls is scant and equivocal. We therefore assessed the influences of top-down effects on abundance and activity patterns among devils, feral cats and eastern quolls. Between 2011 and 2013, we monitored four carnivore populations using longitudinal trapping and camera surveys, and performed camera surveys at 12 additional sites throughout the eastern quoll's range. We did not find evidence of a negative relationship between devil and cat abundance, nor of higher cat abundance in areas where devil populations had declined the longest. Cats did not appear to avoid devils spatially; however, there was evidence of temporal separation of cat and devil activity, with reduced separation and increasing nocturnal activity observed in areas where devils had declined the longest. Cats and quolls used the same areas, and there was no evidence that cat and quoll abundances were negatively related. Temporal overlap in observed cat and quoll activity was higher in summer than in winter, but this seasonal difference was unrelated to devil declines. We suggest that cats did not cause the recent quoll decline, but that predation of juvenile quolls by cats could be inhibiting low density quoll populations from recovering their former abundance

Economic Downturns, Retirement and Long-Term Cognitive Function Among Older Americans.

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Hessel, Philipp; Riumallo-Herl, Carlos J; Leist, Anja K; Berkman, Lisa F; Avendano, Mauricio

2018-04-16

Workers approaching retirement may be particularly vulnerable to economic downturns. This study assesses whether exposure to economic downturns around retirement age leads to poorer cognitive function in later life. Longitudinal data for 13,577 individuals in the Health and Retirement Study were linked to unemployment rates in state of residence. Random- and fixed-effect models were used to examine whether downturns at 55-64 years of age were associated with cognitive functioning levels and decline at ≥65 years, measured by the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale-Revised. Longer exposure to downturns at 55-64 years of age was associated with lower levels of cognitive function at ≥65 years. Compared to individuals experiencing only up to 1 year in a downturn at 55-64 years of age, individuals experiencing two downturns at these ages had 0.09 point (95% Confidence Interval [CI, -0.17, -0.02]) lower cognitive functioning scores at ≥65 years (3 years: b = -0.17, 95%CI [-0.29, -0.06]; 4 years: b = -0.14, 95%CI [-0.25, -0.02]; ≥5 years: b = -0.22, 95%CI [-0.38, -0.06]). Downturns at 55-64 years of age were not associated with rates of cognitive decline. Exposure to downturns around retirement is associated with a long-lasting decline in cognitive function in later life. Policies mitigating the impact of downturns on older workers may help to maintain cognitive function in later life.

The Current Attack on Women's Rights: A Political-Economic Perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Kress, June

The right-wing attack on women's rights in the United States manifests itself in the regulation of reproductive rights, the family, and the workplace and corresponds to the changing needs of capital in an era of social and economic crises. Against this background, anti-abortion legislation, the Family Protection Act, and discrimination in the…

Two centuries of economic territorial dynamics: the case of France

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Magali Talandier

2016-01-01

Full Text Available We propose an analysis of the socio-economic development processes at work in territories at the scale of French communes from 1806 to 2010. This is an extremely fine scale for such analysis, given that there are 36,000 communes in mainland France. The diachronic dimension, spanning two centuries, makes it possible to consider the temporal depth of territorial development. But the primary interest is not so much demographics as the socio-economic dimension of these variations over two centuries. We have analysed demographic changes as the expression of the socio-economic processes that shaped French territory over two centuries. Dynamic mapping of long-term population shifts reflects the industrial expansion of certain territories, decline due to the end of traditional farming practices, the shock produced by two world wars, the Fordist period and the post-war boom; the subsequent impact of an increasingly globalized, metropolitan economy then becomes apparent. We thus identify, map and analyse several historico-socio-economic phases.

Causes of maternal mortality decline in Matlab, Bangladesh.

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Chowdhury, Mahbub Elahi; Ahmed, Anisuddin; Kalim, Nahid; Koblinsky, Marge

2009-04-01

Bangladesh is distinct among developing countries in achieving a low maternal mortality ratio (MMR) of 322 per 100,000 livebirths despite the very low use of skilled care at delivery (13% nationally). This variation has also been observed in Matlab, a rural area in Bangladesh, where longitudinal data on maternal mortality are available since the mid-1970s. The current study investigated the possible causes of the maternal mortality decline in Matlab. The study analyzed 769 maternal deaths and 215,779 pregnancy records from the Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) and other sources of safe motherhood data in the ICDDR,B and government service areas in Matlab during 1976-2005. The major interventions that took place in both the areas since the early 1980s were the family-planning programme plus safe menstrual regulation services and safe motherhood interventions (midwives for normal delivery in the ICDDR,B service area from the late 1980s and equal access to comprehensive emergency obstetric care [EmOC] in public facilities for women from both the areas). National programmes for social development and empowerment of women through education and microcredit programmes were implemented in both the areas. The quantitative findings were supplemented by a qualitative study by interviewing local community care providers for their change in practices for maternal healthcare over time. After the introduction of the safe motherhood programme, reduction in maternal mortality was higher in the ICDDR,B service area (68.6%) than in the government service area (50.4%) during 1986-1989 and 2001-2005. Reduction in the number of maternal deaths due to the fertility decline was higher in the government service area (30%) than in the ICDDR,B service area (23%) during 1979-2005. In each area, there has been substantial reduction in abortion-related mortality--86.7% and 78.3%--in the ICDDR,B and government service areas respectively. Education of women was a strong predictor

Economic implications of nuclear operating and maintenance costs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Braun, C.

1994-01-01

Nuclear operating and maintenance (O and M) costs for U.S. plants have been increasing during the decade of the 1980's. Costs have stabilized over the last five years but have not yet significantly declined. Annual capacity factors have considerably improved during the last eight years and unit O and M costs expressed in Mills Kwh have thus declined. Two other important trends evident over the last five years have been the decline in fossil fuel prices and the transition to deregulated electric utilities market, accelerated with the passage of the 1992 Energy Policy Act. Within the next five years it may be possible for large scale industrial customers to directly contract with electricity generators, by they utilities or independent power producers (IPP's) for supplying their power requirements. The ability of such customers to directly contract with potential supplies based on low cost performance bypassing their local utility, may have significant implications for the structure of the utility industry in the near term and for plant operations. A greater pressure will likely be exerted on all plants, including nuclear to reduce operating costs so as to remain competitive with other power suppliers in their markets. Nuclear O and M costs are likely to be heavily scrutinized for possible savings and reductions. The electric utilities mergers waves and the nuclear industry's initiative on O and M cost control both aim at improving plant economics so as to better compete in the more deregulated environment. In this climate the issues of why nuclear O and M costs have increased, what can be done to reduce costs and what are the implications for advanced reactors design and economics are discussed. 14 figs

ECONOMIC HIGHER EDUCATION AND THE COMPETENCES TRAINING PERSPECTIVE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Radu Lucian BLAGA

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Based on the current socio-economic realities of training and professional development, the paper aims to present the concept of competence, in the knowledge-society, that has become a key concept and especially how the competences training, is regarded as a major solution to global socio-economic problems. Competence training is regarded, at the European level, as a major solution to global socio-economic problems. In this context, higher economic and business education, assigned the multiple tasks to them, which can solved using effective and flexible sources like material, human and capital, that could overcome the well-known inertia of higher education systems.The paper presents some current guidelines in education, training and related competences development, training models from the perspective of university economic education, examples of definition, development and assessment of specific economic field competences. Examples were made in the context of the marketing field at the potential meaning of this qualification, which is currently discussed and is still in its early recovery in the economic and business. This field it is still considered by the Romanian business environment like an expense rather than as an investment.

Paradigms and novelty in economics : The history of economic thought as a source of enlightenment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dolfsma, W.A.; Welch, P.

P>Over time, economics has experienced paradigm shifts, and there is every reason to think this will continue. In economics, as in the development of technological knowledge, paradigms do not emerge from nowhere, but build on precursors, possibly from other fields. Our understanding of current

Theoretical and methodological basis for the formation and evaluation of the level of the economic system's strategic economic potential

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kljushin Vladislav Vladimirovich

2014-12-01

Full Text Available The current level of business activity of socio-economic systems of different scale and insufficient to increase their overall potential. To solve this problem, the first priority is the effective management of their strategic and economic potential. Managerial decision-making about the use of economic resources strategic socio-economic systems requires the development of a methodology to identify and evaluate strategic and economic potential.

Ophiostomatoid fungi associated with declined Pinus pinaster stands in Spain

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Gonzalo Álvarez

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Aim of study: We studied the presence of fungi and distribution patterns in relation to the health status of declining Pinus pinaster trees. Area of study: Trees in two declining stands in Central Spain were allotted to three declining classes. Material and Methods: Trees in two declining stands in Central Spain were allotted to three declining classes (healthy, declining and recently dead and 3 trees of each class were felled in each stand. Wood slides (phloem and xylem were taken at six positions along the trees and samples collected from fungal identification. Main results: A total of 21 fungal taxa were isolated and identified; eleven of these species belonged to the Ophiostomatoid group. Ophiostoma minus was the most frequently isolated fungus and was identified in 22% of the samples, mainly associated to dead and diseased trees. Research highlights: Together these results suggest a putative association of O. minor with the decline in this area, and thus we suggest paying more attention to this fungus as a potential agent of decline in P. pinaster stands.

Competitiveness of Slovakia and the Economic Crisis

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Silvia Ručinská

2009-12-01

Full Text Available The impacts of financial crisis in the beginning of this year have also been felt by the Slovak economy. It could be argued that the competitiveness of Slovakia is under the influence of the world economic crisis, as it is a small, open and pro-export oriented economy, hence influenced by foreign markets. Because of limited extent of domestic market, the foreign demand plays a key role in economic growth, a role that depends on the development of international economic affairs. As the biggest Slovak trade partners are in a deep recession, it induces a slowdown in the domestic economy as well. Financial problems of numerous banks in these countries, in combination with the growing lack of trust in the performance of the economies have resulted in a decline in demand and consumption, which had its effects on Slovakia as well. Based on our analysis of the manifestations and consequences of the financial crisis we show the effects on competitiveness of Slovakia, as well as on public policy.

STIMULATION OF ECONOMIC GROWTH IN ROMANIA BETWEEN REALITY AND DESIDERATE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

DOBROTĂ GABRIELA

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Fragility of economical environment subject to a dynamic process of globalization in recent decades has been demonstrated abundantly, year 2007 representing an important point in terms of triggering the accentuated macroeconomic imbalances. The propagation of the financial crisis in the economic environment is clearly reflected by the contraction of the global economy after a long period of growth, the emphasizing of budget deficits, reducing wages, increase of unemployment. Romania was significantly affected by the global economic crisis, amid a long line of inadequate policies. The orientation excessive economic development through consumption and the unfavorable ratio between income and productivity are issues that have contributed significantly to the decline of the Romanian economy. Inadequate measures taken have worsened the effects of crisis: reducing foreign investment, increasing of trade deficit, reduction of living standards, decreasing the number of SMEs, worsening the institutional weaknesses etc. In this paper, are addressed aspects which highlights the effects of economic policy measures promoted in Romania after the transition to market economy, on stages, specifying measures necessary to ensure the functionality of coordination mechanisms, in order to register determinant impulses of economic growth.

The economic growth enigma: Capital, labour and useful energy?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ayres, Robert; Voudouris, Vlasios

2014-01-01

We show that the application of flexible semi-parametric statistical techniques enables significant improvements in model fitting of macroeconomic models. As applied to the explanation of the past economic growth (since 1900) in US, UK and Japan, the new results demonstrate quite conclusively the non-linear relationships between capital, labour and useful energy with economic growth. They also indicate that output elasticities of capital, labour and useful energy are extremely variable over time. We suggest that these results confirm the economic intuition that growth since the industrial revolution has been driven largely by declining energy costs due to the discovery and exploitation of relatively inexpensive fossil fuel resources. Implications for the 21st century, which are also discussed briefly by exploring the implications of an ACEGES-based scenario of oil production, are as follows: (a) the provision of adequate and affordable quantities of useful energy as a pre-condition for economic growth and (b) the design of energy systems as ‘technology incubators’ for a prosperous 21st century. - Highlights: • Economic growth needs three factors of production. • We propose a semi-parametric generalised production function. • Exploitation of inexpensive fossil fuel resources has profound policy implications

The Development of Future Orientation is Associated with Faster Decline in Hopelessness during Adolescence.

Science.gov (United States)

Mac Giollabhui, Naoise; Nielsen, Johanna; Seidman, Sam; Olino, Thomas M; Abramson, Lyn Y; Alloy, Lauren B

2018-01-05

Hopelessness is implicated in multiple psychological disorders. Little is known, however, about the trajectory of hopelessness during adolescence or how emergent future orientation may influence its trajectory. Parallel process latent growth curve modelling tested whether (i) trajectories of future orientation and hopelessness and (ii) within-individual change in future orientation and hopelessness were related. The study was comprised of 472 adolescents [52% female, 47% Caucasian, 47% received free lunch] recruited at ages 12-13 who completed measures of future orientation and hopelessness at five annual assessments. The results indicate that a general decline in hopelessness across adolescence occurs quicker for those experiencing faster development of future orientation, when controlling for age, sex, low socio-economic status in addition to stressful life events in childhood and adolescence. Stressful childhood life events were associated with worse future orientation at baseline and negative life events experienced during adolescence were associated with both an increase in the trajectory of hopelessness as well as a decrease in the trajectory of future orientation. This study provides compelling evidence that the development of future orientation during adolescence is associated with a faster decline in hopelessness.

Existing contradictions and problems in China's current economic and social development

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Wang Tongsan

2014-01-01

Since the 18th National Congress of Communist Party of China (CPC),China has made important achievements and headway in economic and social development.However,now more than ever the focus should be on the conflicts and problems that continue to exist in China's economy.This paper examines six of them:(1) lack of a firm foundation for sustaining steady economic growth;(2) risks and hidden dangers in the financial,banking,and real estate sectors and massive overcapacity in some industries;(3) increasing difficulty in increasing agricultural production and raising rural incomes;(4) severe air,water,and soil pollution in certain regions and the arduous task of energy conservation and emissions reduction;(5) major structural problems constraining employment;and (6) issues of people's livelihood that have been the source of dissatisfaction for many Chinese citizens.

Sustainable city policy. Economic, environmental, technological

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Camagni, R.; Capello, R. [Politecnico di Milano, Milan (Italy). Economics Dept.; Nijkamp, P. [Dept. of Spatial Economics. Fac. of Economics and Econometrics. Vrije Univ., Amsterdam (Netherlands)

1995-12-31

While the reasons for advocating intensified environmental concerns at the urban level are more and more accepted and clear, the question how to overcome such concerns is still fraught with many difficulties. The aim of the present paper is to formulate some policy guidelines, based on economic principles, for a `sustainable city`; it is an ambitious aim, since a unique and operationally defined `recipe` is difficult to envisage. An urban policy for a sustainable city needs to take different (and contrasting) aspects and many conflicting interests into consideration, while many political, social and economic frictions need to be overcome. A description of various aspects and concepts concerning sustainability issues at the urban level is given in Section 2. Section 3 then provides some considerations on possible technological, economic and environmental urban policies, by creating a typo logy of policy tools associated with different causes of urban decline. Section 4 provides some new, and partly provocative, suggestions for specific urban sustainability policies; in particular it deals with the problem of urban sustainability indicators, measures, and critical threshold levels at which urban sustainability policies should be implemented. Some reflective remarks will conclude the paper. 3 figs., 4 tabs., 25 refs.

Sustainable city policy. Economic, environmental, technological

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Camagni, R.; Capello, R.

1995-01-01

While the reasons for advocating intensified environmental concerns at the urban level are more and more accepted and clear, the question how to overcome such concerns is still fraught with many difficulties. The aim of the present paper is to formulate some policy guidelines, based on economic principles, for a 'sustainable city'; it is an ambitious aim, since a unique and operationally defined 'recipe' is difficult to envisage. An urban policy for a sustainable city needs to take different (and contrasting) aspects and many conflicting interests into consideration, while many political, social and economic frictions need to be overcome. A description of various aspects and concepts concerning sustainability issues at the urban level is given in Section 2. Section 3 then provides some considerations on possible technological, economic and environmental urban policies, by creating a typo logy of policy tools associated with different causes of urban decline. Section 4 provides some new, and partly provocative, suggestions for specific urban sustainability policies; in particular it deals with the problem of urban sustainability indicators, measures, and critical threshold levels at which urban sustainability policies should be implemented. Some reflective remarks will conclude the paper. 3 figs., 4 tabs., 25 refs

Economic impacts of climate change in Australia: framework and analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ford, Melanie

2007-01-01

Full text: There is growing interest in understanding the potential impacts of climate change in Australia, and especially the economic impacts of 'inaction'. In this study, a preliminary analysis of the possible economic impacts of future climate change in Australia is undertaken using ABARE's general equilibrium model of the global economy, GTEM. In order to understand the potential economy-wide economic impacts, the broad climatic trends that Australia is likely to experience over the next several decades are canvassed and the potential economic and non-economic impacts on key risk areas, such as water resources, agriculture and forests, health, industry and human settlements and the ecosystems, are identified. A more detailed analysis of the economic impacts of climate change are undertaken by developing two case studies. In the first case study, the economic impact of climate change and reduced water availability on the agricultural sector is assessed in the Murray-Darling Basin. In the second case study, the sectoral economic impacts on the Australian resources sector of a projected decline in global economic activity due to climate change is analysed. The key areas of required development to more fully understand the economy-wide and sectoral impacts of climate change are also discussed including issues associated with estimating both non-market and market impacts. Finally, an analytical framework for undertaking integrated assessment of climate change impacts domestically and globally is developed

Habitat dynamics, marine reserve status, and the decline and recovery of coral reef fish communities

Science.gov (United States)

Williamson, David H; Ceccarelli, Daniela M; Evans, Richard D; Jones, Geoffrey P; Russ, Garry R

2014-01-01

Severe climatic disturbance events often have major impacts on coral reef communities, generating cycles of decline and recovery, and in some extreme cases, community-level phase shifts from coral-to algal-dominated states. Benthic habitat changes directly affect reef fish communities, with low coral cover usually associated with low fish diversity and abundance. No-take marine reserves (NTRs) are widely advocated for conserving biodiversity and enhancing the sustainability of exploited fish populations. Numerous studies have documented positive ecological and socio-economic benefits of NTRs; however, the ability of NTRs to ameliorate the effects of acute disturbances on coral reefs has seldom been investigated. Here, we test these factors by tracking the dynamics of benthic and fish communities, including the important fishery species, coral trout (Plectropomus spp.), over 8 years in both NTRs and fished areas in the Keppel Island group, Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Two major disturbances impacted the reefs during the monitoring period, a coral bleaching event in 2006 and a freshwater flood plume in 2011. Both disturbances generated significant declines in coral cover and habitat complexity, with subsequent declines in fish abundance and diversity, and pronounced shifts in fish assemblage structure. Coral trout density also declined in response to the loss of live coral, however, the approximately 2:1 density ratio between NTRs and fished zones was maintained over time. The only post-disturbance refuges for coral trout spawning stocks were within the NTRs that escaped the worst effects of the disturbances. Although NTRs had little discernible effect on the temporal dynamics of benthic or fish communities, it was evident that the post-disturbance refuges for coral trout spawning stocks within some NTRs may be critically important to regional-scale population persistence and recovery. PMID:24634720

A declining CD4 count and diagnosis of HIV-associated Hodgkin lymphoma: do prior clinical symptoms and laboratory abnormalities aid diagnosis?

Science.gov (United States)

Gupta, Ravindra K; Marks, Michael; Edwards, Simon G; Smith, Katie; Fletcher, Katie; Lee, Siow-Ming; Ramsay, Alan; Copas, Andrew J; Miller, Robert F

2014-01-01

The incidence of Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) among HIV-infected individuals remains unchanged since the introduction of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). Recent epidemiological data suggest that CD4 count decline over a year is associated with subsequent diagnosis of HL. In an era of economic austerity monitoring the efficacy of cART by CD4 counts may no longer be required where CD4 count>350 cells/µl and viral load is suppressed (HIV outpatient cohort whether a CD4 count decline prior to diagnosis of HL, whether any decline was greater than in patients without the diagnosis, and also whether other clinical or biochemical indices were reliably associated with the diagnosis. Twenty-nine patients with a diagnosis of HL were identified. Among 15 individuals on cART with viral load symptoms had been present for a median of three months (range one-12) before diagnosis of HL. The CD4 count decline in the 12 months prior to diagnosis of Hodgkin lymphoma among HIV-infected individuals with VLsymptoms and/or new palpable lymphadenopathy, suggesting that CD4 count monitoring if performed less frequently, or not at all, among those virologically suppressed individuals with CD4 counts >350 may not have delayed diagnosis.

Decline in Cardiovascular Mortality: Possible Causes and Implications.

Science.gov (United States)

Mensah, George A; Wei, Gina S; Sorlie, Paul D; Fine, Lawrence J; Rosenberg, Yves; Kaufmann, Peter G; Mussolino, Michael E; Hsu, Lucy L; Addou, Ebyan; Engelgau, Michael M; Gordon, David

2017-01-20

If the control of infectious diseases was the public health success story of the first half of the 20th century, then the decline in mortality from coronary heart disease and stroke has been the success story of the century's past 4 decades. The early phase of this decline in coronary heart disease and stroke was unexpected and controversial when first reported in the mid-1970s, having followed 60 years of gradual increase as the US population aged. However, in 1978, the participants in a conference convened by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute concluded that a significant recent downtick in coronary heart disease and stroke mortality rates had definitely occurred, at least in the US Since 1978, a sharp decline in mortality rates from coronary heart disease and stroke has become unmistakable throughout the industrialized world, with age-adjusted mortality rates having declined to about one third of their 1960s baseline by 2000. Models have shown that this remarkable decline has been fueled by rapid progress in both prevention and treatment, including precipitous declines in cigarette smoking, improvements in hypertension treatment and control, widespread use of statins to lower circulating cholesterol levels, and the development and timely use of thrombolysis and stents in acute coronary syndrome to limit or prevent infarction. However, despite the huge growth in knowledge and advances in prevention and treatment, there remain many questions about this decline. In fact, there is evidence that the rate of decline may have abated and may even be showing early signs of reversal in some population groups. The National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, through a request for information, is soliciting input that could inform a follow-up conference on or near the 40th anniversary of the original landmark conference to further explore these trends in cardiovascular mortality in the context of what has come before and what may lie ahead. © 2017 American Heart

Affective problems and decline in cognitive state in older adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

John, A; Patel, U; Rusted, J; Richards, M; Gaysina, D

2018-05-24

Evidence suggests that affective problems, such as depression and anxiety, increase risk for late-life dementia. However, the extent to which affective problems influence cognitive decline, even many years prior to clinical diagnosis of dementia, is not clear. The present study systematically reviews and synthesises the evidence for the association between affective problems and decline in cognitive state (i.e., decline in non-specific cognitive function) in older adults. An electronic search of PubMed, PsycInfo, Cochrane, and ScienceDirect was conducted to identify studies of the association between depression and anxiety separately and decline in cognitive state. Key inclusion criteria were prospective, longitudinal designs with a minimum follow-up period of 1 year. Data extraction and methodological quality assessment using the STROBE checklist were conducted independently by two raters. A total of 34 studies (n = 71 244) met eligibility criteria, with 32 studies measuring depression (n = 68 793), and five measuring anxiety (n = 4698). A multi-level meta-analysis revealed that depression assessed as a binary predictor (OR 1.36, 95% CI 1.05-1.76, p = 0.02) or a continuous predictor (B = -0.008, 95% CI -0.015 to -0.002, p = 0.012; OR 0.992, 95% CI 0.985-0.998) was significantly associated with decline in cognitive state. The number of anxiety studies was insufficient for meta-analysis, and they are described in a narrative review. Results of the present study improve current understanding of the temporal nature of the association between affective problems and decline in cognitive state. They also suggest that cognitive function may need to be monitored closely in individuals with affective disorders, as these individuals may be at particular risk of greater cognitive decline.

Thinner cortex in patients with subjective cognitive decline is associated with steeper decline of memory.

Science.gov (United States)

Verfaillie, Sander C J; Slot, Rosalinde E; Tijms, Betty M; Bouwman, Femke; Benedictus, Marije R; Overbeek, Jozefien M; Koene, Teddy; Vrenken, Hugo; Scheltens, Philip; Barkhof, Frederik; van der Flier, Wiesje M

2018-01-01

We aimed to investigate associations between regional cortical thickness and rate of decline over time in 4 cognitive domains in patients with subjective cognitive decline (SCD). We included 233 SCD patients with the total number of 654 neuropsychological assessments (median = 3, range = 2-8) and available baseline magnetic resonance imaging from the Amsterdam Dementia Cohort (125 males, age: 63 ± 9, Mini-Mental State Examination score: 28 ± 2). We assessed longitudinal cognitive functioning at baseline and follow-up in 4 cognitive domains (composite Z-scores): memory, attention, executive function, and language. Thickness (millimeter) was estimated using FreeSurfer for frontal, temporal, parietal, cingulate, and occipital cortices. We used linear mixed models to estimate effects of cortical thickness on cognitive performance (dependent variables). There were no associations between cortical thickness and baseline cognition, but a faster subsequent rate of memory loss was associated with thinner cortex of the frontal [β (SE) = 0.20 (0.07)], temporal [β (SE) = 0.18 (0.07)], and occipital [β (SE) = 0.22 (0.09)] cortices (all p cognitive decline related to neurodegenerative diseases, most prominently Alzheimer's disease. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Managing nuclear waste: Social and economic impacts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hemphill, R.C.; Bassett, G.W. Jr.

1993-01-01

Recent research has focused on perceptions of risk as a dominant source of economic impacts due to siting a high level radioactive waste facility. This article addresses the social and economic considerations involved with the issue of risk perception and other types of negative imagery. Emphasis is placed on ways of measuring the potential for economic effects resulting from perceptions prior to construction and operation of HLW facility. We describe the problems in arriving at defensible estimates of economic impacts. Our review has found that although legal and regulatory bases may soon allow inclusion of these impacts in EIS and for compensation purposes, credible scientific methods do not currently exist for predicting the existence or magnitude of changes in economic decision-making. Policy-makers should recognize the potential for perception-based economic impacts in determining the location and means of managing radioactive waste; but, they also need be cognizant of the current limitations of quantitative estimates of impacts in this area

Managing nuclear waste: Social and economic impacts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hemphill, R.C.; Bassett, G.W. Jr.

1993-01-01

Recent research has focused on perceptions of risk dominant source of economic impacts due to siting a high level radioactive waste facility. This article addresses the social and economic considerations involved with the issue of risk perception and other types of negative imagery. Emphasis is placed on ways of measuring the potential for economic effects resulting from perceptions prior to construction and operation of a HLW facility. We describe the problems in arriving at defensible estimates of economic impacts. Our review has found that although legal and regulatory bases may soon allow inclusion of these impacts in EIS and for compensation purposes, credible scientific methods do not currently exist for predicting the existence or magnitude of changes in economic decision-making. Policy-makers should recognize the potential for perception-based economic impacts in determining the location and means of managing radioactive waste; but, they also need be cognizant of the current limitations of quantitative estimates of impacts in this area

Zambia Economic Brief, October 2013 : Zambia's Jobs Challenge--Realities on the Ground

OpenAIRE

World Bank

2013-01-01

Zambia shares its robust economic growth and capital inflows in the past few years with other Sub-Saharan countries, growth supported by high commodity prices that while declining are still at historical high levels. High commodity prices have induced large foreign direct investment (FDI) flows, mainly in extractive industries but also in services sector, supporting growth. Zambia's mining...

Interpreting the Emigration of Young Spanish Adults in a Context of Economic Crisis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Almudena Moreno Mínguez

2017-08-01

Full Text Available This article discusses the effects of the economic crisis on the international mobility of young Spaniards from a critical perspective. The difficulties in finding employment resulting from the economic crisis have changed the international mobility of young people. The results presented in this paper point to a relative decline in the young population due to reduced fertility and increased youth mobility. On the one hand, this new trend has generated a relative media distortion. On the other hand, it could have future implications for the sustainability of the Spanish welfare state.

Crowdsourced estimation of cognitive decline and resilience in Alzheimer’s disease

Science.gov (United States)

Allen, Genevera I; Amoroso, Nicola; Anghel, Catalina; Balagurusamy, Venkat; Bare, Christopher J; Beaton, Derek; Bellotti, Roberto; Bennett, David A; Boehme, Kevin; Boutros, Paul C; Caberlotto, Laura; Caloian, Cristian; Campbell, Frederick; Neto, Elias Chaibub; Chang, Yu-Chuan; Chen, Beibei; Chen, Chien-Yu; Chien, Ting-Ying; Clark, Tim; Das, Sudeshna; Davatzikos, Christos; Deng, Jieyao; Dillenberger, Donna; Dobson, Richard JB; Dong, Qilin; Doshi, Jimit; Duma, Denise; Errico, Rosangela; Erus, Guray; Everett, Evan; Fardo, David W; Friend, Stephen H; Fröhlich, Holger; Gan, Jessica; St George-Hyslop, Peter; Ghosh, Satrajit S; Glaab, Enrico; Green, Robert C; Guan, Yuanfang; Hong, Ming-Yi; Huang, Chao; Hwang, Jinseub; Ibrahim, Joseph; Inglese, Paolo; Jiang, Qijia; Katsumata, Yuriko; Kong, Dehan; Krause, Roland; Lalonde, Emilie; Lauria, Mario; Lee, Eunjee; Lin, Xihui; Liu, Zhandong; Livingstone, Julie; Logsdon, Benjamin A; Lovestone, Simon; Lyappan, Anandhi; Ma, Michelle; Malhotra, Ashutosh; Maxwell, Taylor J; Merrill, Emily; Nagorski, John; Namasivayam, Aishwarya; Narayan, Manjari; Naz, Mufassra; Newhouse, Stephen J; Norman, Thea C; Nurtdinov, Ramil N; Oyang, Yen-Jen; Pawitan, Yudi; Peng, Shengwen; Piccolo, Stephen R; Praveen, Paurush; Priami, Corrado; Sabelnykova, Veronica Y; Senger, Philipp; Shen, Xia; Simmons, Andrew; Sotiras, Aristeidis; Stolovitzky, Gustavo; Tangaro, Sabina; Tateo, Andrea; Tung, Yi-An; Tustison, Nicholas J; Varol, Erdem; Vradenburg, George; Weiner, Michael W; Xiao, Guanghua; Xie, Lei; Xie, Yang; Xu, Jia; Yang, Hojin; Zhan, Xiaowei; Zhou, Yunyun; Zhu, Fan; Zhu, Hongtu; Zhu, Shanfeng

2017-01-01

Identifying accurate biomarkers of cognitive decline is essential for advancing early diagnosis and prevention therapies in Alzheimer’s Disease. The Alzheimer’s Disease DREAM Challenge was designed as a computational crowdsourced project to benchmark the current state-of-the-art in predicting cognitive outcomes in Alzheimer’s Disease based on high-dimensional, publicly available genetic and structural imaging data. This meta-analysis failed to identify a meaningful predictor developed from either data modality, suggesting that alternate approaches should be considered for to prediction of cognitive performance. PMID:27079753

The Decline in Breastfeeding: An Analysis of the Role of the Nestle Corporation from Two Perspectives. Cornell International Nutrition Monograph Series, Number 11 (1982).

Science.gov (United States)

Campbell, Carolyn E.

An attempt is made to analyze the ascendancy of formula feeding of infants in terms of the conflicting ideologies of Marxism and capitalism. The decline of breastfeeding is traced, and is linked with the interrelated phenomena of free market economics and the domination of women by men in Western society. The monograph has two sections:…

Population as an Economic Development Factor: the Case of Kosovo

OpenAIRE

Rahmije MUSTAFA-TOPXHIU; Florentina XHELILI-KRASNIQI; Justina PULA-SHIROKA

2017-01-01

Kosovo's population is a young population and is gradually entering the final stage of demographic transition, that is characterized by considerable decline in fertility, natality, mortality and natural growth. Despite demographic disturbances caused by numerous social and economic factors, the long period under Serbian occupation, major population displacement and the War of 1999, the population of Kosovo over the last hundred years have continued to increase, with high and low fluctuations....

NIDI scenario. Strong population decline in China

OpenAIRE

de Beer, J.A.A.

2016-01-01

United Nations projections assume that by the end of this century one third of the world population will live in India, China or Nigeria. While population growth in India will slow down and the population size of China will decline, population growth in Nigeria will accelerate. A new NIDI scenario projects less population growth in Nigeria and sharp population decline in China.

Rapid warming accelerates tree growth decline in semi-arid forests of Inner Asia.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Hongyan; Park Williams, A; Allen, Craig D; Guo, Dali; Wu, Xiuchen; Anenkhonov, Oleg A; Liang, Eryuan; Sandanov, Denis V; Yin, Yi; Qi, Zhaohuan; Badmaeva, Natalya K

2013-08-01

Forests around the world are subject to risk of high rates of tree growth decline and increased tree mortality from combinations of climate warming and drought, notably in semi-arid settings. Here, we assess how climate warming has affected tree growth in one of the world's most extensive zones of semi-arid forests, in Inner Asia, a region where lack of data limits our understanding of how climate change may impact forests. We show that pervasive tree growth declines since 1994 in Inner Asia have been confined to semi-arid forests, where growing season water stress has been rising due to warming-induced increases in atmospheric moisture demand. A causal link between increasing drought and declining growth at semi-arid sites is corroborated by correlation analyses comparing annual climate data to records of tree-ring widths. These ring-width records tend to be substantially more sensitive to drought variability at semi-arid sites than at semi-humid sites. Fire occurrence and insect/pathogen attacks have increased in tandem with the most recent (2007-2009) documented episode of tree mortality. If warming in Inner Asia continues, further increases in forest stress and tree mortality could be expected, potentially driving the eventual regional loss of current semi-arid forests. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.