WorldWideScience

Sample records for cost estimation model

  1. Software Cost-Estimation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tausworthe, R. C.

    1985-01-01

    Software Cost Estimation Model SOFTCOST provides automated resource and schedule model for software development. Combines several cost models found in open literature into one comprehensive set of algorithms. Compensates for nearly fifty implementation factors relative to size of task, inherited baseline, organizational and system environment and difficulty of task.

  2. NASA Software Cost Estimation Model: An Analogy Based Estimation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hihn, Jairus; Juster, Leora; Menzies, Tim; Mathew, George; Johnson, James

    2015-01-01

    The cost estimation of software development activities is increasingly critical for large scale integrated projects such as those at DOD and NASA especially as the software systems become larger and more complex. As an example MSL (Mars Scientific Laboratory) developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory launched with over 2 million lines of code making it the largest robotic spacecraft ever flown (Based on the size of the software). Software development activities are also notorious for their cost growth, with NASA flight software averaging over 50% cost growth. All across the agency, estimators and analysts are increasingly being tasked to develop reliable cost estimates in support of program planning and execution. While there has been extensive work on improving parametric methods there is very little focus on the use of models based on analogy and clustering algorithms. In this paper we summarize our findings on effort/cost model estimation and model development based on ten years of software effort estimation research using data mining and machine learning methods to develop estimation models based on analogy and clustering. The NASA Software Cost Model performance is evaluated by comparing it to COCOMO II, linear regression, and K-­ nearest neighbor prediction model performance on the same data set.

  3. Los Alamos Waste Management Cost Estimation Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matysiak, L.M.; Burns, M.L.

    1994-03-01

    This final report completes the Los Alamos Waste Management Cost Estimation Project, and includes the documentation of the waste management processes at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) for hazardous, mixed, low-level radioactive solid and transuranic waste, development of the cost estimation model and a user reference manual. The ultimate goal of this effort was to develop an estimate of the life cycle costs for the aforementioned waste types. The Cost Estimation Model is a tool that can be used to calculate the costs of waste management at LANL for the aforementioned waste types, under several different scenarios. Each waste category at LANL is managed in a separate fashion, according to Department of Energy requirements and state and federal regulations. The cost of the waste management process for each waste category has not previously been well documented. In particular, the costs associated with the handling, treatment and storage of the waste have not been well understood. It is anticipated that greater knowledge of these costs will encourage waste generators at the Laboratory to apply waste minimization techniques to current operations. Expected benefits of waste minimization are a reduction in waste volume, decrease in liability and lower waste management costs

  4. A Probabilistic Cost Estimation Model for Unexploded Ordnance Removal

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Poppe, Peter

    1999-01-01

    ...) contaminated sites that the services must decontaminate. Existing models for estimating the cost of UXO removal often require a high level of expertise and provide only a point estimate for the costs...

  5. Model improves oil field operating cost estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glaeser, J.L.

    1996-01-01

    A detailed operating cost model that forecasts operating cost profiles toward the end of a field's life should be constructed for testing depletion strategies and plans for major oil fields. Developing a good understanding of future operating cost trends is important. Incorrectly forecasting the trend can result in bad decision making regarding investments and reservoir operating strategies. Recent projects show that significant operating expense reductions can be made in the latter stages o field depletion without significantly reducing the expected ultimate recoverable reserves. Predicting future operating cost trends is especially important for operators who are currently producing a field and must forecast the economic limit of the property. For reasons presented in this article, it is usually not correct to either assume that operating expense stays fixed in dollar terms throughout the lifetime of a field, nor is it correct to assume that operating costs stay fixed on a dollar per barrel basis

  6. An improved COCOMO software cost estimation model | Duke ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this paper, we discuss the methodologies adopted previously in software cost estimation using the COnstructive COst MOdels (COCOMOs). From our analysis, COCOMOs produce very high software development efforts, which eventually produce high software development costs. Consequently, we propose its extension, ...

  7. Composite Aircraft Life Cycle Cost Estimating Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-01

    X. The masked fit of the lines are as follows: • Part Count Percentage Reduction for Design hours ( HRE %) = • Part Count Percentage Reduction...multiplied by the respective labor rate (LR). Currently, CT is a percentage of total non- recurring development cost. HRE corresponds to recurring...Empty Weight Velocity RENGR HRE CRE 46 Figure 14: Non-Recurring Engineering CER Currently, CT is a percentage of non-recurring development

  8. An Adjusted Discount Rate Model for Fuel Cycle Cost Estimation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, S. K.; Kang, G. B.; Ko, W. I. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-10-15

    Owing to the diverse nuclear fuel cycle options available, including direct disposal, it is necessary to select the optimum nuclear fuel cycles in consideration of the political and social environments as well as the technical stability and economic efficiency of each country. Economic efficiency is therefore one of the significant evaluation standards. In particular, because nuclear fuel cycle cost may vary in each country, and the estimated cost usually prevails over the real cost, when evaluating the economic efficiency, any existing uncertainty needs to be removed when possible to produce reliable cost information. Many countries still do not have reprocessing facilities, and no globally commercialized HLW (High-level waste) repository is available. A nuclear fuel cycle cost estimation model is therefore inevitably subject to uncertainty. This paper analyzes the uncertainty arising out of a nuclear fuel cycle cost evaluation from the viewpoint of a cost estimation model. Compared to the same discount rate model, the nuclear fuel cycle cost of a different discount rate model is reduced because the generation quantity as denominator in Equation has been discounted. Namely, if the discount rate reduces in the back-end process of the nuclear fuel cycle, the nuclear fuel cycle cost is also reduced. Further, it was found that the cost of the same discount rate model is overestimated compared with the different discount rate model as a whole.

  9. An Adjusted Discount Rate Model for Fuel Cycle Cost Estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, S. K.; Kang, G. B.; Ko, W. I.

    2013-01-01

    Owing to the diverse nuclear fuel cycle options available, including direct disposal, it is necessary to select the optimum nuclear fuel cycles in consideration of the political and social environments as well as the technical stability and economic efficiency of each country. Economic efficiency is therefore one of the significant evaluation standards. In particular, because nuclear fuel cycle cost may vary in each country, and the estimated cost usually prevails over the real cost, when evaluating the economic efficiency, any existing uncertainty needs to be removed when possible to produce reliable cost information. Many countries still do not have reprocessing facilities, and no globally commercialized HLW (High-level waste) repository is available. A nuclear fuel cycle cost estimation model is therefore inevitably subject to uncertainty. This paper analyzes the uncertainty arising out of a nuclear fuel cycle cost evaluation from the viewpoint of a cost estimation model. Compared to the same discount rate model, the nuclear fuel cycle cost of a different discount rate model is reduced because the generation quantity as denominator in Equation has been discounted. Namely, if the discount rate reduces in the back-end process of the nuclear fuel cycle, the nuclear fuel cycle cost is also reduced. Further, it was found that the cost of the same discount rate model is overestimated compared with the different discount rate model as a whole

  10. Cost estimation model for advanced planetary programs, fourth edition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spadoni, D. J.

    1983-01-01

    The development of the planetary program cost model is discussed. The Model was updated to incorporate cost data from the most recent US planetary flight projects and extensively revised to more accurately capture the information in the historical cost data base. This data base is comprised of the historical cost data for 13 unmanned lunar and planetary flight programs. The revision was made with a two fold objective: to increase the flexibility of the model in its ability to deal with the broad scope of scenarios under consideration for future missions, and to maintain and possibly improve upon the confidence in the model's capabilities with an expected accuracy of 20%. The Model development included a labor/cost proxy analysis, selection of the functional forms of the estimating relationships, and test statistics. An analysis of the Model is discussed and two sample applications of the cost model are presented.

  11. Estimating Drilling Cost and Duration Using Copulas Dependencies Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Al Kindi

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Estimation of drilling budget and duration is a high-level challenge for oil and gas industry. This is due to the many uncertain activities in the drilling procedure such as material prices, overhead cost, inflation, oil prices, well type, and depth of drilling. Therefore, it is essential to consider all these uncertain variables and the nature of relationships between them. This eventually leads into the minimization of the level of uncertainty and yet makes a "good" estimation points for budget and duration given the well type. In this paper, the copula probability theory is used in order to model the dependencies between cost/duration and MRI (mechanical risk index. The MRI is a mathematical computation, which relates various drilling factors such as: water depth, measured depth, true vertical depth in addition to mud weight and horizontal displacement. In general, the value of MRI is utilized as an input for the drilling cost and duration estimations. Therefore, modeling the uncertain dependencies between MRI and both cost and duration using copulas is important. The cost and duration estimates for each well were extracted from the copula dependency model where research study simulate over 10,000 scenarios. These new estimates were later compared to the actual data in order to validate the performance of the procedure. Most of the wells show moderate - weak relationship of MRI dependence, which means that the variation in these wells can be related to MRI but to the extent that it is not the primary source.

  12. A Descriptive Evaluation of Automated Software Cost-Estimation Models,

    Science.gov (United States)

    1986-10-01

    Version 1.03D) * PCOC (Version 7.01) - PRICE S • SLIM (Version 1.1) • SoftCost (Version 5. 1) * SPQR /20 (Version 1. 1) - WICOMO (Version 1.3) These...produce detailed GANTT and PERT charts. SPQR /20 is based on a cost model developed at ITT. In addition to cost, schedule, and staffing estimates, it...cases and test runs required, and the effectiveness of pre-test and test activities. SPQR /20 also predicts enhancement and maintenance activities. C

  13. Cost function estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, C K; Andersen, K; Kragh-Sørensen, P

    2000-01-01

    on these criteria, a two-part model was chosen. In this model, the probability of incurring any costs was estimated using a logistic regression, while the level of the costs was estimated in the second part of the model. The choice of model had a substantial impact on the predicted health care costs, e...

  14. Oil and gas pipeline construction cost analysis and developing regression models for cost estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thaduri, Ravi Kiran

    In this study, cost data for 180 pipelines and 136 compressor stations have been analyzed. On the basis of the distribution analysis, regression models have been developed. Material, Labor, ROW and miscellaneous costs make up the total cost of a pipeline construction. The pipelines are analyzed based on different pipeline lengths, diameter, location, pipeline volume and year of completion. In a pipeline construction, labor costs dominate the total costs with a share of about 40%. Multiple non-linear regression models are developed to estimate the component costs of pipelines for various cross-sectional areas, lengths and locations. The Compressor stations are analyzed based on the capacity, year of completion and location. Unlike the pipeline costs, material costs dominate the total costs in the construction of compressor station, with an average share of about 50.6%. Land costs have very little influence on the total costs. Similar regression models are developed to estimate the component costs of compressor station for various capacities and locations.

  15. The model for estimation production cost of embroidery handicraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nofierni; Sriwana, IK; Septriani, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Embroidery industry is one of type of micro industry that produce embroidery handicraft. These industries are emerging in some rural areas of Indonesia. Embroidery clothing are produce such as scarves and clothes that show cultural value of certain region. The owner of an enterprise must calculate the cost of production before making a decision on how many products are received from the customer. A calculation approach to production cost analysis is needed to consider the feasibility of each order coming. This study is proposed to design the expert system (ES) in order to improve production management in the embroidery industry. The model will design used Fuzzy inference system as a model to estimate production cost. Research conducted based on survey and knowledge acquisitions from stakeholder of supply chain embroidery handicraft industry at Bukittinggi, West Sumatera, Indonesia. This paper will use fuzzy input where the quality, the complexity of the design and the working hours required and the result of the model are useful to manage production cost on embroidery production.

  16. FASTSim: A Model to Estimate Vehicle Efficiency, Cost and Performance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brooker, A.; Gonder, J.; Wang, L.; Wood, E.; Lopp, S.; Ramroth, L.

    2015-05-04

    The Future Automotive Systems Technology Simulator (FASTSim) is a high-level advanced vehicle powertrain systems analysis tool supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Vehicle Technologies Office. FASTSim provides a quick and simple approach to compare powertrains and estimate the impact of technology improvements on light- and heavy-duty vehicle efficiency, performance, cost, and battery batches of real-world drive cycles. FASTSim’s calculation framework and balance among detail, accuracy, and speed enable it to simulate thousands of driven miles in minutes. The key components and vehicle outputs have been validated by comparing the model outputs to test data for many different vehicles to provide confidence in the results. A graphical user interface makes FASTSim easy and efficient to use. FASTSim is freely available for download from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s website (see www.nrel.gov/fastsim).

  17. Advanced fuel cycle cost estimation model and its cost estimation results for three nuclear fuel cycles using a dynamic model in Korea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Sungki, E-mail: sgkim1@kaeri.re.kr [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, 1045 Daedeokdaero, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-353 (Korea, Republic of); Ko, Wonil [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, 1045 Daedeokdaero, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-353 (Korea, Republic of); Youn, Saerom; Gao, Ruxing [University of Science and Technology, 217 Gajungro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-350 (Korea, Republic of); Bang, Sungsig, E-mail: ssbang@kaist.ac.kr [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Department of Business and Technology Management, 291 Deahak-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-701 (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-11-15

    Highlights: • The nuclear fuel cycle cost using a new cost estimation model was analyzed. • The material flows of three nuclear fuel cycle options were calculated. • The generation cost of once-through was estimated to be 66.88 mills/kW h. • The generation cost of pyro-SFR recycling was estimated to be 78.06 mills/kW h. • The reactor cost was identified as the main cost driver of pyro-SFR recycling. - Abstract: The present study analyzes advanced nuclear fuel cycle cost estimation models such as the different discount rate model and its cost estimation results. To do so, an analysis of the nuclear fuel cycle cost of three options (direct disposal (once through), PWR–MOX (Mixed OXide fuel), and Pyro-SFR (Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor)) from the viewpoint of economic sense, focusing on the cost estimation model, was conducted using a dynamic model. From an analysis of the fuel cycle cost estimation results, it was found that some cost gap exists between the traditional same discount rate model and the advanced different discount rate model. However, this gap does not change the priority of the nuclear fuel cycle option from the viewpoint of economics. In addition, the fuel cycle costs of OT (Once-Through) and Pyro-SFR recycling based on the most likely value using a probabilistic cost estimation except for reactor costs were calculated to be 8.75 mills/kW h and 8.30 mills/kW h, respectively. Namely, the Pyro-SFR recycling option was more economical than the direct disposal option. However, if the reactor cost is considered, the economic sense in the generation cost between the two options (direct disposal vs. Pyro-SFR recycling) can be changed because of the high reactor cost of an SFR.

  18. Procedures and models for estimating preconstruction costs of highway projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-07-01

    This study presents data driven and component based PE cost prediction models by utilizing critical factors retrieved from ten years of historical project data obtained from ODOT roadway division. The study used factor analysis of covariance and corr...

  19. Establishing a cost model when estimating product cost in early design phases

    OpenAIRE

    Jeppsson, Johanna; Sjöberg, Jessica

    2017-01-01

    About 75% of the total product cost is determined in the early design phase, which means that the possibilities to affect costs are relatively small when the design phase is completed. For companies, it is therefore vital to conduct reliable cost estimates in the early design phase, when selecting between different design choices. When conducting a cost estimate there are many uncertainties. The aim with this study is therefore to explore how uncertainties regarding product cost can be consid...

  20. Melanoma costs: a dynamic model comparing estimated overall costs of various clinical stages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexandrescu, Doru Traian

    2009-11-15

    The rapidly increasing incidence of melanoma occurs at the same time as an increase in general healthcare costs, particularly the expenses associated with cancer care. Previous cost estimates in melanoma have not utilized a dynamic model considering the evolution of the disease and have not integrated the multiple costs associated with different aspects of medical interventions and patient-related factors. Futhermore, previous calculations have not been updated to reflect the modern tendencies in healthcare costs. We designed a comprehensive model of expenses in melanoma that considers the dynamic costs generated by the natural progression of the disease, which produces costs associated with treatment, surveillance, loss of income, and terminal care. The complete range of initial clinical (TNM) stages of the disease and initial tumor stages were analyzed in this model and the total healthcare costs for the five years following melanoma presentation at each particular stage were calculated. We have observed dramatic incremental total costs associated with progressively higher initial stages of the disease, ranging from a total of $4,648.48 for in situ tumors to $159,808.17 for Stage IV melanoma. By stage, early lesions associate 30-55 percent of their costs for the treatment of the primary tumor, due to a low rate of recurrence (local, regional, or distant), which limits the need for additional interventions. For in situ melanoma, T1a, and T1b, surveillance is an important contributor to the medical costs, accounting for more than 25 percent of the total cost over 5 years. In contrast, late lesions incur a much larger proportion of their associated costs (up to 80-85%) from the diagnosis and treatment of metastatic disease because of the increased propensity of those lesions to disseminate. This cost increases with increasing tumor stage (from $2,442.17 for T1a to $6,678.00 for T4b). The most expensive items in the medical care of patients with melanoma consist of

  1. A General Model for Cost Estimation in an Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benzion Barlev

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Current Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP state that the cost of an asset acquired for cash is the fair value (FV of the amount surrendered, and that of an asset acquired in a non-monetary exchange is the FV of the asset surrendered or, if it is more “clearly evident,” the FV of the acquired asset. The measurement method prescribed for a non-monetary exchange ignores valuable information about the “less clearly evident” asset. Thus, we suggest that the FV in any exchange be measured by the weighted average of the exchanged assets’ FV estimations, where the weights are the inverse of the variances’ estimations. This alternative valuation process accounts for the uncertainty involved in estimating the FV of each of the asset in the exchange. The proposed method suits all types of exchanges: monetary and non-monetary. In a monetary transaction, the weighted average equals the cash paid because the variance of its FV is nil.

  2. Developing a Cost Model and Methodology to Estimate Capital Costs for Thermal Energy Storage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Glatzmaier, G.

    2011-12-01

    This report provides an update on the previous cost model for thermal energy storage (TES) systems. The update allows NREL to estimate the costs of such systems that are compatible with the higher operating temperatures associated with advanced power cycles. The goal of the Department of Energy (DOE) Solar Energy Technology Program is to develop solar technologies that can make a significant contribution to the United States domestic energy supply. The recent DOE SunShot Initiative sets a very aggressive cost goal to reach a Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) of 6 cents/kWh by 2020 with no incentives or credits for all solar-to-electricity technologies.1 As this goal is reached, the share of utility power generation that is provided by renewable energy sources is expected to increase dramatically. Because Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) is currently the only renewable technology that is capable of integrating cost-effective energy storage, it is positioned to play a key role in providing renewable, dispatchable power to utilities as the share of power generation from renewable sources increases. Because of this role, future CSP plants will likely have as much as 15 hours of Thermal Energy Storage (TES) included in their design and operation. As such, the cost and performance of the TES system is critical to meeting the SunShot goal for solar technologies. The cost of electricity from a CSP plant depends strongly on its overall efficiency, which is a product of two components - the collection and conversion efficiencies. The collection efficiency determines the portion of incident solar energy that is captured as high-temperature thermal energy. The conversion efficiency determines the portion of thermal energy that is converted to electricity. The operating temperature at which the overall efficiency reaches its maximum depends on many factors, including material properties of the CSP plant components. Increasing the operating temperature of the power generation

  3. A Probabilistic Cost Estimation Model for Unexploded Ordnance Removal

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-09-01

    clearance of the former Fort Ord costly and difficult [Meuser, and Szasz 1997]. Finally, soil type affects the maximum depth that ordnance...Correlated Random Variables from partially-specified Distributions." Management Science. 44(1998): 203- 218. Meuser, M, and A. Szasz . "Stakeholder

  4. Aircraft ground damage and the use of predictive models to estimate costs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kromphardt, Benjamin D.

    Aircraft are frequently involved in ground damage incidents, and repair costs are often accepted as part of doing business. The Flight Safety Foundation (FSF) estimates ground damage to cost operators $5-10 billion annually. Incident reports, documents from manufacturers or regulatory agencies, and other resources were examined to better understand the problem of ground damage in aviation. Major contributing factors were explained, and two versions of a computer-based model were developed to project costs and show what is possible. One objective was to determine if the models could match the FSF's estimate. Another objective was to better understand cost savings that could be realized by efforts to further mitigate the occurrence of ground incidents. Model effectiveness was limited by access to official data, and assumptions were used if data was not available. However, the models were determined to sufficiently estimate the costs of ground incidents.

  5. Estimating the costs of reducing CO2 emission via avoided deforestation with integrated assessment modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Overmars, K.P.; Tabeau, A.A.; Stehfest, E.; Meijl, van J.C.M.

    2012-01-01

    Estimates for deforestation and forest degradation were shown to account for about 17% of greenhouse gas emissions. The implementation of REDD is suggested to provide substantial emission reductions at low costs. Proper calculation of such a costs requires integrated modeling approach involving

  6. A case study to estimate costs using Neural Networks and regression based models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadia Bhuiyan

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Bombardier Aerospace’s high performance aircrafts and services set the utmost standard for the Aerospace industry. A case study in collaboration with Bombardier Aerospace is conducted in order to estimate the target cost of a landing gear. More precisely, the study uses both parametric model and neural network models to estimate the cost of main landing gears, a major aircraft commodity. A comparative analysis between the parametric based model and those upon neural networks model will be considered in order to determine the most accurate method to predict the cost of a main landing gear. Several trials are presented for the design and use of the neural network model. The analysis for the case under study shows the flexibility in the design of the neural network model. Furthermore, the performance of the neural network model is deemed superior to the parametric models for this case study.

  7. Statistical model for forecasting uranium prices to estimate the nuclear fuel cycle cost

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Sung Ki; Ko, Won Il; Nam, Hyoon [Nuclear Fuel Cycle Analysis, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Chul Min; Chung, Yang Hon; Bang, Sung Sig [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-08-15

    This paper presents a method for forecasting future uranium prices that is used as input data to calculate the uranium cost, which is a rational key cost driver of the nuclear fuel cycle cost. In other words, the statistical autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and existing engineering cost estimation method, the so-called escalation rate model, were subjected to a comparative analysis. When the uranium price was forecasted in 2015, the margin of error of the ARIMA model forecasting was calculated and found to be 5.4%, whereas the escalation rate model was found to have a margin of error of 7.32%. Thus, it was verified that the ARIMA model is more suitable than the escalation rate model at decreasing uncertainty in nuclear fuel cycle cost calculation.

  8. Statistical model for forecasting uranium prices to estimate the nuclear fuel cycle cost

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Sung Ki; Ko, Won Il; Nam, Hyoon; Kim, Chul Min; Chung, Yang Hon; Bang, Sung Sig

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a method for forecasting future uranium prices that is used as input data to calculate the uranium cost, which is a rational key cost driver of the nuclear fuel cycle cost. In other words, the statistical autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and existing engineering cost estimation method, the so-called escalation rate model, were subjected to a comparative analysis. When the uranium price was forecasted in 2015, the margin of error of the ARIMA model forecasting was calculated and found to be 5.4%, whereas the escalation rate model was found to have a margin of error of 7.32%. Thus, it was verified that the ARIMA model is more suitable than the escalation rate model at decreasing uncertainty in nuclear fuel cycle cost calculation

  9. Estimating the Cost of Care for Emergency Department Syncope Patients: Comparison of Three Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marc A. Probst

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: We sought to compare three hospital cost-estimation models for patients undergoing evaluation for unexplained syncope using hospital cost data. Developing such a model would allow researchers to assess the value of novel clinical algorithms for syncope management. Methods: We collected complete health services data, including disposition, testing, and length of stay (LOS, on 67 adult patients (age 60 years and older who presented to the emergency department (ED with syncope at a single hospital. Patients were excluded if a serious medical condition was identified. We created three hospital cost-estimation models to estimate facility costs: V1, unadjusted Medicare payments for observation and/or hospital admission; V2: modified Medicare payment, prorated by LOS in calendar days; and V3: modified Medicare payment, prorated by LOS in hours. Total hospital costs included unadjusted Medicare payments for diagnostic testing and estimated facility costs. We plotted these estimates against actual cost data from the hospital finance department, and performed correlation and regression analyses. Results: Of the three models, V3 consistently outperformed the others with regard to correlation and goodness of fit. The Pearson correlation coefficient for V3 was 0.88 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.81, 0.92 with an R-square value of 0.77 and a linear regression coefficient of 0.87 (95% CI 0.76, 0.99. Conclusion: Using basic health services data, it is possible to accurately estimate hospital costs for older adults undergoing a hospital-based evaluation for unexplained syncope. This methodology could help assess the potential economic impact of implementing novel clinical algorithms for ED syncope. [West J Emerg Med. 2017;18(2253-257.

  10. PRAGMATICS OF USING A MODIFIED CAPM MODEL FOR ESTIMATING COST OF EQUITY ON EMERGING MARKETS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vitaliy Semenyuk

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the work is to forming pragmatic recommendations for the development and implementation the modified CAPM model in the process of estimating the equity value on emerging markets. Original CAPM model allows estimating the cost of equity on the developed capital markets. At the same time it requires the information received on the market data basis. But, as show recent empirical research, the classical model does not always produce acceptable results of the equity estimation. In addition, CAPM model in its classical form can’t be used to estimate the cost of equity for countries with emerging markets. This is due with lower efficiency in emerging markets, with lower level of liquidity and capitalization, which makes the information obtained from these markets not entirely reliable. Therefore in practice are increasingly using different modification CAPM models, that allow consider for more specific factors which affect the cost of equity. These factors, which are not considered in the classical CAPM model, include the size of the corporation and country risk. The first factor is actual for developed and emerging markets and needed to account during the equity estimation and modification the CAPM model. Country risk is associated with differences and peculiarities of the economies different countries and in the first place should be taken into account when estimating the cost of equity in emerging capital markets, which are considered by investors as more risky for investment. This factor should also be taken into account in estimating the cost of equity. Methodology In the process of constructing a modified CAPM model, theoretical and methodological provisions were used, which are set out in the work R. Banz, G. Bekaert, M. Goedhart, R. Grabowski, R. Grinold, D. Vessels, A. Damodaran, M. Dempsey, J. Zhang, R. Ibbotson, P. Kaplan, T. Koller, K. Kroner, L. Kruschwitz, M. Long, A. Lofler, G. Mandl, M. Miller, F. Modilyani, K. Nunes, D

  11. MONITOR: A computer model for estimating the costs of an integral monitored retrievable storage facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reimus, P.W.; Sevigny, N.L.; Schutz, M.E.; Heller, R.A.

    1986-12-01

    The MONITOR model is a FORTRAN 77 based computer code that provides parametric life-cycle cost estimates for a monitored retrievable storage (MRS) facility. MONITOR is very flexible in that it can estimate the costs of an MRS facility operating under almost any conceivable nuclear waste logistics scenario. The model can also accommodate input data of varying degrees of complexity and detail (ranging from very simple to more complex) which makes it ideal for use in the MRS program, where new designs and new cost data are frequently offered for consideration. MONITOR can be run as an independent program, or it can be interfaced with the Waste System Transportation and Economic Simulation (WASTES) model, a program that simulates the movement of waste through a complete nuclear waste disposal system. The WASTES model drives the MONITOR model by providing it with the annual quantities of waste that are received, stored, and shipped at the MRS facility. Three runs of MONITOR are documented in this report. Two of the runs are for Version 1 of the MONITOR code. A simulation which uses the costs developed by the Ralph M. Parsons Company in the 2A (backup) version of the MRS cost estimate. In one of these runs MONITOR was run as an independent model, and in the other run MONITOR was run using an input file generated by the WASTES model. The two runs correspond to identical cases, and the fact that they gave identical results verified that the code performed the same calculations in both modes of operation. The third run was made for Version 2 of the MONITOR code. A simulation which uses the costs developed by the Ralph M. Parsons Company in the 2B (integral) version of the MRS cost estimate. This run was made with MONITOR being run as an independent model. The results of several cases have been verified by hand calculations

  12. Reduced Multivariate Polynomial Model for Manufacturing Costs Estimation of Piping Elements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nibaldo Rodriguez

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses the development and evaluation of an estimation model of manufacturing costs of piping elements through the application of a Reduced Multivariate Polynomial (RMP. The model allows obtaining accurate estimations, even when enough and adequate information is not available. This situation typically occurs in the early stages of the design process of industrial products. The experimental evaluations show that the approach is capable, with a low complexity, of reducing uncertainties and to predict costs with significant precision. Comparisons with a neural network showed also that the RMP performs better considering a set of classical performance measures with the corresponding lower complexity and higher accuracy.

  13. The cost of universal health care in India: a model based estimate.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shankar Prinja

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: As high out-of-pocket healthcare expenses pose heavy financial burden on the families, Government of India is considering a variety of financing and delivery options to universalize health care services. Hence, an estimate of the cost of delivering universal health care services is needed. METHODS: We developed a model to estimate recurrent and annual costs for providing health services through a mix of public and private providers in Chandigarh located in northern India. Necessary health services required to deliver good quality care were defined by the Indian Public Health Standards. National Sample Survey data was utilized to estimate disease burden. In addition, morbidity and treatment data was collected from two secondary and two tertiary care hospitals. The unit cost of treatment was estimated from the published literature. For diseases where data on treatment cost was not available, we collected data on standard treatment protocols and cost of care from local health providers. RESULTS: We estimate that the cost of universal health care delivery through the existing mix of public and private health institutions would be INR 1713 (USD 38, 95%CI USD 18-73 per person per annum in India. This cost would be 24% higher, if branded drugs are used. Extrapolation of these costs to entire country indicates that Indian government needs to spend 3.8% (2.1%-6.8% of the GDP for universalizing health care services. CONCLUSION: The cost of universal health care delivered through a combination of public and private providers is estimated to be INR 1713 per capita per year in India. Important issues such as delivery strategy for ensuring quality, reducing inequities in access, and managing the growth of health care demand need be explored.

  14. The cost of universal health care in India: a model based estimate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prinja, Shankar; Bahuguna, Pankaj; Pinto, Andrew D; Sharma, Atul; Bharaj, Gursimer; Kumar, Vishal; Tripathy, Jaya Prasad; Kaur, Manmeet; Kumar, Rajesh

    2012-01-01

    As high out-of-pocket healthcare expenses pose heavy financial burden on the families, Government of India is considering a variety of financing and delivery options to universalize health care services. Hence, an estimate of the cost of delivering universal health care services is needed. We developed a model to estimate recurrent and annual costs for providing health services through a mix of public and private providers in Chandigarh located in northern India. Necessary health services required to deliver good quality care were defined by the Indian Public Health Standards. National Sample Survey data was utilized to estimate disease burden. In addition, morbidity and treatment data was collected from two secondary and two tertiary care hospitals. The unit cost of treatment was estimated from the published literature. For diseases where data on treatment cost was not available, we collected data on standard treatment protocols and cost of care from local health providers. We estimate that the cost of universal health care delivery through the existing mix of public and private health institutions would be INR 1713 (USD 38, 95%CI USD 18-73) per person per annum in India. This cost would be 24% higher, if branded drugs are used. Extrapolation of these costs to entire country indicates that Indian government needs to spend 3.8% (2.1%-6.8%) of the GDP for universalizing health care services. The cost of universal health care delivered through a combination of public and private providers is estimated to be INR 1713 per capita per year in India. Important issues such as delivery strategy for ensuring quality, reducing inequities in access, and managing the growth of health care demand need be explored.

  15. An examination of sources of sensitivity of consumer surplus estimates in travel cost models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blaine, Thomas W; Lichtkoppler, Frank R; Bader, Timothy J; Hartman, Travis J; Lucente, Joseph E

    2015-03-15

    We examine sensitivity of estimates of recreation demand using the Travel Cost Method (TCM) to four factors. Three of the four have been routinely and widely discussed in the TCM literature: a) Poisson verses negative binomial regression; b) application of Englin correction to account for endogenous stratification; c) truncation of the data set to eliminate outliers. A fourth issue we address has not been widely modeled: the potential effect on recreation demand of the interaction between income and travel cost. We provide a straightforward comparison of all four factors, analyzing the impact of each on regression parameters and consumer surplus estimates. Truncation has a modest effect on estimates obtained from the Poisson models but a radical effect on the estimates obtained by way of the negative binomial. Inclusion of an income-travel cost interaction term generally produces a more conservative but not a statistically significantly different estimate of consumer surplus in both Poisson and negative binomial models. It also generates broader confidence intervals. Application of truncation, the Englin correction and the income-travel cost interaction produced the most conservative estimates of consumer surplus and eliminated the statistical difference between the Poisson and the negative binomial. Use of the income-travel cost interaction term reveals that for visitors who face relatively low travel costs, the relationship between income and travel demand is negative, while it is positive for those who face high travel costs. This provides an explanation of the ambiguities on the findings regarding the role of income widely observed in the TCM literature. Our results suggest that policies that reduce access to publicly owned resources inordinately impact local low income recreationists and are contrary to environmental justice. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. A model to estimate the cost effectiveness of the indoorenvironment improvements in office work

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seppanen, Olli; Fisk, William J.

    2004-06-01

    Deteriorated indoor climate is commonly related to increases in sick building syndrome symptoms, respiratory illnesses, sick leave, reduced comfort and losses in productivity. The cost of deteriorated indoor climate for the society is high. Some calculations show that the cost is higher than the heating energy costs of the same buildings. Also building-level calculations have shown that many measures taken to improve indoor air quality and climate are cost-effective when the potential monetary savings resulting from an improved indoor climate are included as benefits gained. As an initial step towards systemizing these building level calculations we have developed a conceptual model to estimate the cost-effectiveness of various measures. The model shows the links between the improvements in the indoor environment and the following potential financial benefits: reduced medical care cost, reduced sick leave, better performance of work, lower turn over of employees, and lower cost of building maintenance due to fewer complaints about indoor air quality and climate. The pathways to these potential benefits from changes in building technology and practices go via several human responses to the indoor environment such as infectious diseases, allergies and asthma, sick building syndrome symptoms, perceived air quality, and thermal environment. The model also includes the annual cost of investments, operation costs, and cost savings of improved indoor climate. The conceptual model illustrates how various factors are linked to each other. SBS symptoms are probably the most commonly assessed health responses in IEQ studies and have been linked to several characteristics of buildings and IEQ. While the available evidence indicates that SBS symptoms can affect these outcomes and suspects that such a linkage exists, at present we can not quantify the relationships sufficiently for cost-benefit modeling. New research and analyses of existing data to quantify the financial

  17. A model to estimate cost-savings in diabetic foot ulcer prevention efforts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barshes, Neal R; Saedi, Samira; Wrobel, James; Kougias, Panos; Kundakcioglu, O Erhun; Armstrong, David G

    2017-04-01

    Sustained efforts at preventing diabetic foot ulcers (DFUs) and subsequent leg amputations are sporadic in most health care systems despite the high costs associated with such complications. We sought to estimate effectiveness targets at which cost-savings (i.e. improved health outcomes at decreased total costs) might occur. A Markov model with probabilistic sensitivity analyses was used to simulate the five-year survival, incidence of foot complications, and total health care costs in a hypothetical population of 100,000 people with diabetes. Clinical event and cost estimates were obtained from previously-published trials and studies. A population without previous DFU but with 17% neuropathy and 11% peripheral artery disease (PAD) prevalence was assumed. Primary prevention (PP) was defined as reducing initial DFU incidence. PP was more than 90% likely to provide cost-savings when annual prevention costs are less than $50/person and/or annual DFU incidence is reduced by at least 25%. Efforts directed at patients with diabetes who were at moderate or high risk for DFUs were very likely to provide cost-savings if DFU incidence was decreased by at least 10% and/or the cost was less than $150 per person per year. Low-cost DFU primary prevention efforts producing even small decreases in DFU incidence may provide the best opportunity for cost-savings, especially if focused on patients with neuropathy and/or PAD. Mobile phone-based reminders, self-identification of risk factors (ex. Ipswich touch test), and written brochures may be among such low-cost interventions that should be investigated for cost-savings potential. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  18. Using Parametric Cost Models to Estimate Engineering and Installation Costs of Selected Electronic Communications Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    1994-09-01

    NC: SAS Institute Inc., 1991. 2. Horngren , Charles T. And George Foster. Cost Accounting : A Managerial Emphasis. Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey...34 Office of the DoD Comptroller, Washington DC. 20. Horngren , Charles T. And George Foster. Cost Accounting : A Managerial Emphasis. Englewood Cliffs NJ...establish revolving funds as a means to more effectively control the cost of work performed by DoD support activities. In the 1950’ s and 1960’ s

  19. An integrated model for estimating energy cost of a tidal current turbine farm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Ye; Lence, Barbara J.; Calisal, Sander M.

    2011-01-01

    A tidal current turbine is a device for harnessing energy from tidal currents and functions in a manner similar to a wind turbine. A tidal current turbine farm consists of a group of tidal current turbines distributed in a site where high-speed current is available. The accurate prediction of energy cost of a tidal current turbine farm is important to the justification of planning and constructing such a farm. However, the existing approaches used to predict energy cost of tidal current turbine farms oversimplify the hydrodynamic interactions between turbines in energy prediction and oversimplify the operation and maintenance strategies involved in cost estimation as well as related fees. In this paper, we develop a model, which integrates a marine hydrodynamic model with high accuracy for predicting energy output and a comprehensive cost-effective operation and maintenance model for estimating the cost that may be incurred in producing the energy, to predict energy cost from a tidal current turbine farm. This model is expected to be able to simulate more complicated cases and generate more accurate results than existing models. As there is no real tidal current turbine farm, we validate this model with offshore wind studies. Finally, case studies about Vancouver are conducted with a scenario-based analysis. We minimize the energy cost by minimizing the total cost and maximizing the total power output under constraints related to the local conditions (e.g., geological and labor information) and the turbine specifications. The results suggest that tidal current energy is about ready to penetrate the electricity market in some major cities in North America if learning curve for the operational and maintenance is minimum. (author)

  20. Software cost estimation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heemstra, F.J.

    1992-01-01

    The paper gives an overview of the state of the art of software cost estimation (SCE). The main questions to be answered in the paper are: (1) What are the reasons for overruns of budgets and planned durations? (2) What are the prerequisites for estimating? (3) How can software development effort be

  1. Software cost estimation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heemstra, F.J.; Heemstra, F.J.

    1993-01-01

    The paper gives an overview of the state of the art of software cost estimation (SCE). The main questions to be answered in the paper are: (1) What are the reasons for overruns of budgets and planned durations? (2) What are the prerequisites for estimating? (3) How can software development effort be

  2. AN ENHANCED MODEL TO ESTIMATE EFFORT, PERFORMANCE AND COST OF THE SOFTWARE PROJECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Pauline

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The Authors have proposed a model that first captures the fundamentals of software metrics in the phase 1 consisting of three primitive primary software engineering metrics; they are person-months (PM, function-points (FP, and lines of code (LOC. The phase 2 consists of the proposed function point which is obtained by grouping the adjustment factors to simplify the process of adjustment and to ensure more consistency in the adjustments. In the proposed method fuzzy logic is used for quantifying the quality of requirements and is added as one of the adjustment factor, thus a fuzzy based approach for the Enhanced General System Characteristics to Estimate Effort of the Software Projects using productivity has been obtained. The phase 3 takes the calculated function point from our work and is given as input to the static single variable model (i.e. to the Intermediate COCOMO and COCOMO II for cost estimation. The Authors have tailored the cost factors in intermediate COCOMO and both; cost and scale factors are tailored in COCOMO II to suite to the individual development environment, which is very important for the accuracy of the cost estimates. The software performance indicators are project duration, schedule predictability, requirements completion ratio and post-release defect density, are also measured for the software projects in my work. A comparative study for effort, performance measurement and cost estimation of the software project is done between the existing model and the authors proposed work. Thus our work analyzes the interaction¬al process through which the estimation tasks were collectively accomplished.

  3. A parametric cost model for estimating operating and support costs of US Navy (non-nuclear) surface ships

    OpenAIRE

    Brandt, James M.

    1999-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited With few effective decision-making tools to assess the affordability of major weapon systems, management of total ownership costs is continually misunderstood. Cost analysis provides a quick and reliable assessment of affordability. Because there is no standardized method for calculating reliable estimates of operating and support (O&S) costs (the principal component of total ownership cost), this thesis formulates a parametric cost mo...

  4. African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control 1995–2015: Model-Estimated Health Impact and Cost

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coffeng, Luc E.; Stolk, Wilma A.; Zouré, Honorat G. M.; Veerman, J. Lennert; Agblewonu, Koffi B.; Murdoch, Michele E.; Noma, Mounkaila; Fobi, Grace; Richardus, Jan Hendrik; Bundy, Donald A. P.; Habbema, Dik; de Vlas, Sake J.; Amazigo, Uche V.

    2013-01-01

    Background Onchocerciasis causes a considerable disease burden in Africa, mainly through skin and eye disease. Since 1995, the African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) has coordinated annual mass treatment with ivermectin in 16 countries. In this study, we estimate the health impact of APOC and the associated costs from a program perspective up to 2010 and provide expected trends up to 2015. Methods and Findings With data on pre-control prevalence of infection and population coverage of mass treatment, we simulated trends in infection, blindness, visual impairment, and severe itch using the micro-simulation model ONCHOSIM, and estimated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost due to onchocerciasis. We assessed financial costs for APOC, beneficiary governments, and non-governmental development organizations, excluding cost of donated drugs. We estimated that between 1995 and 2010, mass treatment with ivermectin averted 8.2 million DALYs due to onchocerciasis in APOC areas, at a nominal cost of about US$257 million. We expect that APOC will avert another 9.2 million DALYs between 2011 and 2015, at a nominal cost of US$221 million. Conclusions Our simulations suggest that APOC has had a remarkable impact on population health in Africa between 1995 and 2010. This health impact is predicted to double during the subsequent five years of the program, through to 2015. APOC is a highly cost-effective public health program. Given the anticipated elimination of onchocerciasis from some APOC areas, we expect even more health gains and a more favorable cost-effectiveness of mass treatment with ivermectin in the near future. PMID:23383355

  5. African Programme For Onchocerciasis Control 1995-2015: model-estimated health impact and cost.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coffeng, Luc E; Stolk, Wilma A; Zouré, Honorat G M; Veerman, J Lennert; Agblewonu, Koffi B; Murdoch, Michele E; Noma, Mounkaila; Fobi, Grace; Richardus, Jan Hendrik; Bundy, Donald A P; Habbema, Dik; de Vlas, Sake J; Amazigo, Uche V

    2013-01-01

    Onchocerciasis causes a considerable disease burden in Africa, mainly through skin and eye disease. Since 1995, the African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) has coordinated annual mass treatment with ivermectin in 16 countries. In this study, we estimate the health impact of APOC and the associated costs from a program perspective up to 2010 and provide expected trends up to 2015. With data on pre-control prevalence of infection and population coverage of mass treatment, we simulated trends in infection, blindness, visual impairment, and severe itch using the micro-simulation model ONCHOSIM, and estimated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost due to onchocerciasis. We assessed financial costs for APOC, beneficiary governments, and non-governmental development organizations, excluding cost of donated drugs. We estimated that between 1995 and 2010, mass treatment with ivermectin averted 8.2 million DALYs due to onchocerciasis in APOC areas, at a nominal cost of about US$257 million. We expect that APOC will avert another 9.2 million DALYs between 2011 and 2015, at a nominal cost of US$221 million. Our simulations suggest that APOC has had a remarkable impact on population health in Africa between 1995 and 2010. This health impact is predicted to double during the subsequent five years of the program, through to 2015. APOC is a highly cost-effective public health program. Given the anticipated elimination of onchocerciasis from some APOC areas, we expect even more health gains and a more favorable cost-effectiveness of mass treatment with ivermectin in the near future.

  6. African Programme For Onchocerciasis Control 1995-2015: model-estimated health impact and cost.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luc E Coffeng

    Full Text Available Onchocerciasis causes a considerable disease burden in Africa, mainly through skin and eye disease. Since 1995, the African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC has coordinated annual mass treatment with ivermectin in 16 countries. In this study, we estimate the health impact of APOC and the associated costs from a program perspective up to 2010 and provide expected trends up to 2015.With data on pre-control prevalence of infection and population coverage of mass treatment, we simulated trends in infection, blindness, visual impairment, and severe itch using the micro-simulation model ONCHOSIM, and estimated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs lost due to onchocerciasis. We assessed financial costs for APOC, beneficiary governments, and non-governmental development organizations, excluding cost of donated drugs. We estimated that between 1995 and 2010, mass treatment with ivermectin averted 8.2 million DALYs due to onchocerciasis in APOC areas, at a nominal cost of about US$257 million. We expect that APOC will avert another 9.2 million DALYs between 2011 and 2015, at a nominal cost of US$221 million.Our simulations suggest that APOC has had a remarkable impact on population health in Africa between 1995 and 2010. This health impact is predicted to double during the subsequent five years of the program, through to 2015. APOC is a highly cost-effective public health program. Given the anticipated elimination of onchocerciasis from some APOC areas, we expect even more health gains and a more favorable cost-effectiveness of mass treatment with ivermectin in the near future.

  7. Milestones of mathematical model for business process management related to cost estimate documentation in petroleum industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khamidullin, R. I.

    2018-05-01

    The paper is devoted to milestones of the optimal mathematical model for a business process related to cost estimate documentation compiled during construction and reconstruction of oil and gas facilities. It describes the study and analysis of fundamental issues in petroleum industry, which are caused by economic instability and deterioration of a business strategy. Business process management is presented as business process modeling aimed at the improvement of the studied business process, namely main criteria of optimization and recommendations for the improvement of the above-mentioned business model.

  8. A Gaussian mixture model based cost function for parameter estimation of chaotic biological systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shekofteh, Yasser; Jafari, Sajad; Sprott, Julien Clinton; Hashemi Golpayegani, S. Mohammad Reza; Almasganj, Farshad

    2015-02-01

    As we know, many biological systems such as neurons or the heart can exhibit chaotic behavior. Conventional methods for parameter estimation in models of these systems have some limitations caused by sensitivity to initial conditions. In this paper, a novel cost function is proposed to overcome those limitations by building a statistical model on the distribution of the real system attractor in state space. This cost function is defined by the use of a likelihood score in a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) which is fitted to the observed attractor generated by the real system. Using that learned GMM, a similarity score can be defined by the computed likelihood score of the model time series. We have applied the proposed method to the parameter estimation of two important biological systems, a neuron and a cardiac pacemaker, which show chaotic behavior. Some simulated experiments are given to verify the usefulness of the proposed approach in clean and noisy conditions. The results show the adequacy of the proposed cost function.

  9. Estimation Model of Spacecraft Parameters and Cost Based on a Statistical Analysis of COMPASS Designs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerberich, Matthew W.; Oleson, Steven R.

    2013-01-01

    The Collaborative Modeling for Parametric Assessment of Space Systems (COMPASS) team at Glenn Research Center has performed integrated system analysis of conceptual spacecraft mission designs since 2006 using a multidisciplinary concurrent engineering process. The set of completed designs was archived in a database, to allow for the study of relationships between design parameters. Although COMPASS uses a parametric spacecraft costing model, this research investigated the possibility of using a top-down approach to rapidly estimate the overall vehicle costs. This paper presents the relationships between significant design variables, including breakdowns of dry mass, wet mass, and cost. It also develops a model for a broad estimate of these parameters through basic mission characteristics, including the target location distance, the payload mass, the duration, the delta-v requirement, and the type of mission, propulsion, and electrical power. Finally, this paper examines the accuracy of this model in regards to past COMPASS designs, with an assessment of outlying spacecraft, and compares the results to historical data of completed NASA missions.

  10. Cost Estimation and Control for Flight Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammond, Walter E.; Vanhook, Michael E. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    Good program management practices, cost analysis, cost estimation, and cost control for aerospace flight systems are interrelated and depend upon each other. The best cost control process cannot overcome poor design or poor systems trades that lead to the wrong approach. The project needs robust Technical, Schedule, Cost, Risk, and Cost Risk practices before it can incorporate adequate Cost Control. Cost analysis both precedes and follows cost estimation -- the two are closely coupled with each other and with Risk analysis. Parametric cost estimating relationships and computerized models are most often used. NASA has learned some valuable lessons in controlling cost problems, and recommends use of a summary Project Manager's checklist as shown here.

  11. A Cost Estimation Model for Commander Naval Air Forces Paicifc's TACAIR F/A-18S Aviation Depot Level Repair Costs

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Duma, David

    2001-01-01

    .... The first section discusses the methodology used to create a cost estimation model. The second and third sections provide the results of the model's outcomes and compares and analyzes those results to the actual results...

  12. Cost-Sensitive Estimation of ARMA Models for Financial Asset Return Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minyoung Kim

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The autoregressive moving average (ARMA model is a simple but powerful model in financial engineering to represent time-series with long-range statistical dependency. However, the traditional maximum likelihood (ML estimator aims to minimize a loss function that is inherently symmetric due to Gaussianity. The consequence is that when the data of interest are asset returns, and the main goal is to maximize profit by accurate forecasting, the ML objective may be less appropriate potentially leading to a suboptimal solution. Rather, it is more reasonable to adopt an asymmetric loss where the model's prediction, as long as it is in the same direction as the true return, is penalized less than the prediction in the opposite direction. We propose a quite sensible asymmetric cost-sensitive loss function and incorporate it into the ARMA model estimation. On the online portfolio selection problem with real stock return data, we demonstrate that the investment strategy based on predictions by the proposed estimator can be significantly more profitable than the traditional ML estimator.

  13. Hydrogen Station Cost Estimates: Comparing Hydrogen Station Cost Calculator Results with other Recent Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Melaina, M. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Penev, M. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2013-09-01

    This report compares hydrogen station cost estimates conveyed by expert stakeholders through the Hydrogen Station Cost Calculation (HSCC) to a select number of other cost estimates. These other cost estimates include projections based upon cost models and costs associated with recently funded stations.

  14. Estimation of CO2 Transport Costs in South Korea Using a Techno-Economic Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kwangu Kang

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available In this study, a techno–economic model was used to calculate the costs of CO2 transport and specify the major equipment required for transport in order to demonstrate and implement CO2 sequestration in the offshore sediments of South Korea. First, three different carbon capture and storage demonstration scenarios were set up involving the use of three CO2 capture plants and one offshore storage site. Each transport scenario considered both the pipeline transport and ship transport options. The temperature and pressure conditions of CO2 in each transport stage were determined from engineering and economic viewpoints, and the corresponding specifications and equipment costs were calculated. The transport costs for a 1 MtCO2/year transport rate were estimated to be US$33/tCO2 and US$28/tCO2 for a pipeline transport of ~530 km and ship transport of ~724 km, respectively. Through the economies of scale effect, the pipeline and ship transport costs for a transport rate of 3 MtCO2/year were reduced to approximately US$21/tCO2 and US$23/tCO2, respectively. A CO2 hub terminal did not significantly reduce the cost because of the short distance from the hub to the storage site and the small number of captured sources.

  15. Estimating the cost of epilepsy in Europe: a review with economic modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pugliatti, Maura; Beghi, Ettore; Forsgren, Lars; Ekman, Mattias; Sobocki, Patrik

    2007-12-01

    Based on available epidemiologic, health economic, and international population statistics literature, the cost of epilepsy in Europe was estimated. Europe was defined as the 25 European Union member countries, Iceland, Norway, and Switzerland. Guidelines for epidemiological studies on epilepsy were used for a case definition. A bottom-up prevalence-based cost-of-illness approach, the societal perspective for including the cost items, and the human capital approach as valuation principle for indirect costs were used. The cost estimates were based on selected studies with common methodology and valuation principles. The estimated prevalence of epilepsy in Europe in 2004 was 4.3-7.8 per 1,000. The estimated total cost of the disease in Europe was euro15.5 billion in 2004, indirect cost being the single most dominant cost category (euro8.6 billion). Direct health care costs were euro2.8 billion, outpatient care comprising the largest part (euro1.3 billion). Direct nonmedical cost was euro4.2 billion. That of antiepileptic drugs was euro400 million. The total cost per case was euro2,000-11,500 and the estimated cost per European inhabitant was euro33. Epilepsy is a relevant socioeconomic burden at individual, family, health services, and societal level in Europe. The greater proportion of such burden is outside the formal health care sector, antiepileptic drugs representing a smaller proportion. Lack of economic data from several European countries and other methodological limitations make this report an initial estimate of the cost of epilepsy in Europe. Prospective incidence cost-of-illness studies from well-defined populations and common methodology are encouraged.

  16. Mathematical models for estimating earthquake casualties and damage cost through regression analysis using matrices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Urrutia, J D; Bautista, L A; Baccay, E B

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to develop mathematical models for estimating earthquake casualties such as death, number of injured persons, affected families and total cost of damage. To quantify the direct damages from earthquakes to human beings and properties given the magnitude, intensity, depth of focus, location of epicentre and time duration, the regression models were made. The researchers formulated models through regression analysis using matrices and used α = 0.01. The study considered thirty destructive earthquakes that hit the Philippines from the inclusive years 1968 to 2012. Relevant data about these said earthquakes were obtained from Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology. Data on damages and casualties were gathered from the records of National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council. This study will be of great value in emergency planning, initiating and updating programs for earthquake hazard reduction in the Philippines, which is an earthquake-prone country.

  17. A Model for Shovel Capital Cost Estimation, Using a Hybrid Model of Multivariate Regression and Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdolreza Yazdani-Chamzini

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Cost estimation is an essential issue in feasibility studies in civil engineering. Many different methods can be applied to modelling costs. These methods can be divided into several main groups: (1 artificial intelligence, (2 statistical methods, and (3 analytical methods. In this paper, the multivariate regression (MVR method, which is one of the most popular linear models, and the artificial neural network (ANN method, which is widely applied to solving different prediction problems with a high degree of accuracy, have been combined to provide a cost estimate model for a shovel machine. This hybrid methodology is proposed, taking the advantages of MVR and ANN models in linear and nonlinear modelling, respectively. In the proposed model, the unique advantages of the MVR model in linear modelling are used first to recognize the existing linear structure in data, and, then, the ANN for determining nonlinear patterns in preprocessed data is applied. The results with three indices indicate that the proposed model is efficient and capable of increasing the prediction accuracy.

  18. Nuclear fuel cycle cost estimation and sensitivity analysis of unit costs on the basis of an equilibrium model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, S. K.; Ko, W. I.; You, S. R.; Gao, R. X.

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the difference in the value of the nuclear fuel cycle cost calculated by the deterministic and probabilistic methods on the basis of an equilibrium model. Calculating using the deterministic method, the direct disposal cost and Pyro-SFR (sodium-cooled fast reactor) nuclear fuel cycle cost, including the reactor cost, were found to be 66.41 mills/kWh and 77.82 mills/kWh, respectively (1 mill = one thousand of a dollar, i.e., 10-3 $). This is because the cost of SFR is considerably expensive. Calculating again using the probabilistic method, however, the direct disposal cost and Pyro-SFR nuclear fuel cycle cost, excluding the reactor cost, were found be 7.47 mills/kWh and 6.40 mills/kWh, respectively, on the basis of the most likely value. This is because the nuclear fuel cycle cost is significantly affected by the standard deviation and the mean of the unit cost that includes uncertainty. Thus, it is judged that not only the deterministic method, but also the probabilistic method, would also be necessary to evaluate the nuclear fuel cycle cost. By analyzing the sensitivity of the unit cost in each phase of the nuclear fuel cycle, it was found that the uranium unit price is the most influential factor in determining nuclear fuel cycle costs.

  19. Using bayesian model to estimate the cost of traffic injuries in Iran in 2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ainy, Elaheh; Soori, Hamid; Ganjali, Mojtaba; Bahadorimonfared, Ayad

    2017-01-01

    A significant social and economic burden inflicts by road traffic injuries (RTIs). We aimed to use Bayesian model, to present the precise method, and to estimate the cost of RTIs in Iran in 2013. In a cross-sectional study on costs resulting from traffic injuries, 846 people per road user were randomly selected and investigated during 3 months (1 st September-1 st December) in 2013. The research questionnaire was prepared based on the standard for willingness to pay (WTP) method considering perceived risks, especially in Iran. Data were collected along with four scenarios for occupants, pedestrians, vehicle drivers, and motorcyclists. Inclusion criterion was having at least high school education and being in the age range of 18-65 years old; risk perception was an important factor to the study and measured by visual tool. Samples who did not have risk perception were excluded from the study. Main outcome measure was cost estimation of traffic injuries using WTP method. Mean WTP was 2,612,050 internal rate of return (IRR) among these road users. Statistical value of life was estimated according to 20,408 death cases 402,314,106,073,648 IRR, equivalent to 13,410,470,202$ based on the dollar free market rate of 30,000 IRR (purchase power parity). In sum, injury and death cases came to 1,171,450,232,238,648 IRR equivalents to 39,048,341,074$. Moreover, in 2013, costs of traffic accident constituted 6.46% of gross national income, which was 604,300,000,000$. WTP had a significant relationship with age, middle and high income, daily payment to injury reduction, more payment to time reduction, trip mileage, private cars drivers, bus, minibus vehicles, and occupants ( P < 0.01). Costs of traffic injuries included noticeable portion of gross national income. If policy-making and resource allocation are made based on the scientific pieces of evidence, an enormous amount of capital can be saved through reducing death and injury rates.

  20. Estimating the costs of induced abortion in Uganda: A model-based analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background The demand for induced abortions in Uganda is high despite legal and moral proscriptions. Abortion seekers usually go to illegal, hidden clinics where procedures are performed in unhygienic environments by under-trained practitioners. These abortions, which are usually unsafe, lead to a high rate of severe complications and use of substantial, scarce healthcare resources. This study was performed to estimate the costs associated with induced abortions in Uganda. Methods A decision tree was developed to represent the consequences of induced abortion and estimate the costs of an average case. Data were obtained from a primary chart abstraction study, an on-going prospective study, and the published literature. Societal costs, direct medical costs, direct non-medical costs, indirect (productivity) costs, costs to patients, and costs to the government were estimated. Monte Carlo simulation was used to account for uncertainty. Results The average societal cost per induced abortion (95% credibility range) was $177 ($140-$223). This is equivalent to $64 million in annual national costs. Of this, the average direct medical cost was $65 ($49-86) and the average direct non-medical cost was $19 ($16-$23). The average indirect cost was $92 ($57-$139). Patients incurred $62 ($46-$83) on average while government incurred $14 ($10-$20) on average. Conclusion Induced abortions are associated with substantial costs in Uganda and patients incur the bulk of the healthcare costs. This reinforces the case made by other researchers--that efforts by the government to reduce unsafe abortions by increasing contraceptive coverage or providing safe, legal abortions are critical. PMID:22145859

  1. Review of hardware cost estimation methods, models and tools applied to early phases of space mission planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trivailo, O.; Sippel, M.; Şekercioğlu, Y. A.

    2012-08-01

    The primary purpose of this paper is to review currently existing cost estimation methods, models, tools and resources applicable to the space sector. While key space sector methods are outlined, a specific focus is placed on hardware cost estimation on a system level, particularly for early mission phases during which specifications and requirements are not yet crystallised, and information is limited. For the space industry, cost engineering within the systems engineering framework is an integral discipline. The cost of any space program now constitutes a stringent design criterion, which must be considered and carefully controlled during the entire program life cycle. A first step to any program budget is a representative cost estimate which usually hinges on a particular estimation approach, or methodology. Therefore appropriate selection of specific cost models, methods and tools is paramount, a difficult task given the highly variable nature, scope as well as scientific and technical requirements applicable to each program. Numerous methods, models and tools exist. However new ways are needed to address very early, pre-Phase 0 cost estimation during the initial program research and establishment phase when system specifications are limited, but the available research budget needs to be established and defined. Due to their specificity, for vehicles such as reusable launchers with a manned capability, a lack of historical data implies that using either the classic heuristic approach such as parametric cost estimation based on underlying CERs, or the analogy approach, is therefore, by definition, limited. This review identifies prominent cost estimation models applied to the space sector, and their underlying cost driving parameters and factors. Strengths, weaknesses, and suitability to specific mission types and classes are also highlighted. Current approaches which strategically amalgamate various cost estimation strategies both for formulation and validation

  2. A probabilistic model estimating oil spill clean-up costs – A case study for the Gulf of Finland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Montewka, Jakub; Weckström, Mia; Kujala, Pentti

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • A model evaluating oil spill cleanup-costs for the Gulf of Finland is presented. • Bayesian Belief Networks are used to develop the model in a probabilistic fashion. • The results are compared with existing models and good agreement is found. • The model can be applicable for cost-benefit analysis in risk framework. -- Abstract: Existing models estimating oil spill costs at sea are based on data from the past, and they usually lack a systematic approach. This make them passive, and limits their ability to forecast the effect of the changes in the oil combating fleet or location of a spill on the oil spill costs. In this paper we make an attempt towards the development of a probabilistic and systematic model estimating the costs of clean-up operations for the Gulf of Finland. For this purpose we utilize expert knowledge along with the available data and information from literature. Then, the obtained information is combined into a framework with the use of a Bayesian Belief Networks. Due to lack of data, we validate the model by comparing its results with existing models, with which we found good agreement. We anticipate that the presented model can contribute to the cost-effective oil-combating fleet optimization for the Gulf of Finland. It can also facilitate the accident consequences estimation in the framework of formal safety assessment (FSA)

  3. Outer planet probe cost estimates: First impressions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niehoff, J.

    1974-01-01

    An examination was made of early estimates of outer planetary atmospheric probe cost by comparing the estimates with past planetary projects. Of particular interest is identification of project elements which are likely cost drivers for future probe missions. Data are divided into two parts: first, the description of a cost model developed by SAI for the Planetary Programs Office of NASA, and second, use of this model and its data base to evaluate estimates of probe costs. Several observations are offered in conclusion regarding the credibility of current estimates and specific areas of the outer planet probe concept most vulnerable to cost escalation.

  4. Naval Aircraft Operating and Support Cost-Estimating Model - FY77 Revision

    Science.gov (United States)

    1979-02-01

    cont’d.) SAMPLE DPERflTING AND SUPPDRT COST ESTIMATE CTHQUSAMtiS DP FY77S:> iso AVERAGE AHNUAL TDTflL COST COST PER UE 10 AC TDTflL 939...0 01 1 1 0 0 J 9 ? 9 p 14 0 0J 15 0 0, 9 1 P 1700J 18ij 0 P 1900 P 9p £1 0 0 P £8 00 P 9» £400 P 9J 9P 27001 £8 0 0 P 9p 3 000 £ P 31 01 j P 9 ? 3

  5. Approaches to estimating decommissioning costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, R.I.

    1990-07-01

    The chronological development of methodology for estimating the cost of nuclear reactor power station decommissioning is traced from the mid-1970s through 1990. Three techniques for developing decommissioning cost estimates are described. The two viable techniques are compared by examining estimates developed for the same nuclear power station using both methods. The comparison shows that the differences between the estimates are due largely to differing assumptions regarding the size of the utility and operating contractor overhead staffs. It is concluded that the two methods provide bounding estimates on a range of manageable costs, and provide reasonable bases for the utility rate adjustments necessary to pay for future decommissioning costs. 6 refs

  6. A vendor managed inventory model using continuous approximations for route length estimates and Markov chain modeling for cost estimates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Christian; Turkensteen, Marcel

    2014-01-01

    be a two-dimensional area or a one-dimensional line structure (corresponding to e.g. a major traffic artery). The expected travel distances across a given number of retailers can now be estimated analytically, using results from the field of continuous approxim ation for two-dimensional areas, or using our...

  7. Systematic screening for Chlamydia trachomatis : Estimating cost-effectiveness using dynamic modeling and Dutch data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Vries, R.; Van Bergen, J.E.A.M.; de Jong-van den Berg, Lolkje; Postma, Maarten

    2006-01-01

    To estimate the cost-effectiveness of a systematic one-off Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) screening program including partner treatment for Dutch young adults. Data on infection prevalence, participation rates, and sexual behavior were obtained from a large pilot study conducted in The Netherlands.

  8. Systematic screening for Chlamydia trachomatis: estimating cost-effectiveness using dynamic modeling and Dutch data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Vries, Robin; van Bergen, Jan E. A. M.; de Jong-van den Berg, Lolkje T. W.; Postma, Maarten J.

    2006-01-01

    To estimate the cost-effectiveness of a systematic one-off Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) screening program including partner treatment for Dutch young adults. Data on infection prevalence, participation rates, and sexual behavior were obtained from a large pilot study conducted in The Netherlands.

  9. Estimating FttH and FttCurb Deployment Costs Using Geometric Models with Enhanced Parameters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Phillipson, F.

    2015-01-01

    The need for higher bandwidth by customers urges the network providers to upgrade their networks. Fibre to the home or Fibre to the curb are two of the scenarios that are considered. To make a proper assessment on the economic viability, a good estimation of the roll-out costs of the networks are

  10. An Integrated BIM and Cost Estimating Blended Learning Model--Acceptance Differences between Experts and Novice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yun-Wu; Wen, Ming-Hui; Chen, Ching-Ming; Hsu, I-Ting

    2016-01-01

    "Building information technology" and "cost estimating" are two core skills of construction education. However, in traditional education, students learn these two important subjects in separate courses. This study proposes a blended learning environment which can provide students with support for their face-to-face learning…

  11. An Analytical Cost Estimation Procedure

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Jayachandran, Toke

    1999-01-01

    Analytical procedures that can be used to do a sensitivity analysis of a cost estimate, and to perform tradeoffs to identify input values that can reduce the total cost of a project, are described in the report...

  12. Risk-adjusted econometric model to estimate postoperative costs: an additional instrument for monitoring performance after major lung resection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunelli, Alessandro; Salati, Michele; Refai, Majed; Xiumé, Francesco; Rocco, Gaetano; Sabbatini, Armando

    2007-09-01

    The objectives of this study were to develop a risk-adjusted model to estimate individual postoperative costs after major lung resection and to use it for internal economic audit. Variable and fixed hospital costs were collected for 679 consecutive patients who underwent major lung resection from January 2000 through October 2006 at our unit. Several preoperative variables were used to develop a risk-adjusted econometric model from all patients operated on during the period 2000 through 2003 by a stepwise multiple regression analysis (validated by bootstrap). The model was then used to estimate the postoperative costs in the patients operated on during the 3 subsequent periods (years 2004, 2005, and 2006). Observed and predicted costs were then compared within each period by the Wilcoxon signed rank test. Multiple regression and bootstrap analysis yielded the following model predicting postoperative cost: 11,078 + 1340.3X (age > 70 years) + 1927.8X cardiac comorbidity - 95X ppoFEV1%. No differences between predicted and observed costs were noted in the first 2 periods analyzed (year 2004, $6188.40 vs $6241.40, P = .3; year 2005, $6308.60 vs $6483.60, P = .4), whereas in the most recent period (2006) observed costs were significantly lower than the predicted ones ($3457.30 vs $6162.70, P model may be used as a methodologic template for economic audit in our specialty and complement more traditional outcome measures in the assessment of performance.

  13. Good Manufacturing Practices (GMP) manufacturing of advanced therapy medicinal products: a novel tailored model for optimizing performance and estimating costs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abou-El-Enein, Mohamed; Römhild, Andy; Kaiser, Daniel; Beier, Carola; Bauer, Gerhard; Volk, Hans-Dieter; Reinke, Petra

    2013-03-01

    Advanced therapy medicinal products (ATMP) have gained considerable attention in academia due to their therapeutic potential. Good Manufacturing Practice (GMP) principles ensure the quality and sterility of manufacturing these products. We developed a model for estimating the manufacturing costs of cell therapy products and optimizing the performance of academic GMP-facilities. The "Clean-Room Technology Assessment Technique" (CTAT) was tested prospectively in the GMP facility of BCRT, Berlin, Germany, then retrospectively in the GMP facility of the University of California-Davis, California, USA. CTAT is a two-level model: level one identifies operational (core) processes and measures their fixed costs; level two identifies production (supporting) processes and measures their variable costs. The model comprises several tools to measure and optimize performance of these processes. Manufacturing costs were itemized using adjusted micro-costing system. CTAT identified GMP activities with strong correlation to the manufacturing process of cell-based products. Building best practice standards allowed for performance improvement and elimination of human errors. The model also demonstrated the unidirectional dependencies that may exist among the core GMP activities. When compared to traditional business models, the CTAT assessment resulted in a more accurate allocation of annual expenses. The estimated expenses were used to set a fee structure for both GMP facilities. A mathematical equation was also developed to provide the final product cost. CTAT can be a useful tool in estimating accurate costs for the ATMPs manufactured in an optimized GMP process. These estimates are useful when analyzing the cost-effectiveness of these novel interventions. Copyright © 2013 International Society for Cellular Therapy. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. A simulation model to estimate the cost and effectiveness of alternative dialysis initiation strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Chris P; Chertow, Glenn M; Zenios, Stefanos A

    2006-01-01

    Patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) require dialysis to maintain survival. The optimal timing of dialysis initiation in terms of cost-effectiveness has not been established. We developed a simulation model of individuals progressing towards ESRD and requiring dialysis. It can be used to analyze dialysis strategies and scenarios. It was embedded in an optimization frame worked to derive improved strategies. Actual (historical) and simulated survival curves and hospitalization rates were virtually indistinguishable. The model overestimated transplantation costs (10%) but it was related to confounding by Medicare coverage. To assess the model's robustness, we examined several dialysis strategies while input parameters were perturbed. Under all 38 scenarios, relative rankings remained unchanged. An improved policy for a hypothetical patient was derived using an optimization algorithm. The model produces reliable results and is robust. It enables the cost-effectiveness analysis of dialysis strategies.

  15. Estimated cost of overactive bladder in Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasopsanti, Kriangsak; Santi-Ngamkun, Apirak; Pornprasit, Kanokwan

    2007-11-01

    To estimate the annual direct and indirect costs of overactive bladder (OAB) in indigenous Thai people aged 18 years and over in the year 2005. Economically based models using diagnostic and treatment algorithms from clinical practice guidelines and current disease prevalence data were used to estimate direct and indirect costs of OAB. Prevalence and event probability estimates were obtained from the literature, national data sets, and expert opinion. Costs were estimated from a small survey using a cost questionnaire and from unit costs of King Chulalongkorn Memorial Hospital. The annual cost of OAB in Thailand is estimated as 1.9 billion USD. It is estimated to consume 1.14% of national GDP The cost includes 0.33 billion USD for direct medical costs, 1.3 billion USD for direct, nonmedical costs and 0.29 billion USD for indirect costs of lost productivity. The largest costs category was direct treatment costs of comorbidities associated with OAB. Costs of OAB medication accountedfor 14% of the total costs ofOAB.

  16. Collider Scaling and Cost Estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palmer, R.B.

    1986-01-01

    This paper deals with collider cost and scaling. The main points of the discussion are the following ones: 1) scaling laws and cost estimation: accelerating gradient requirements, total stored RF energy considerations, peak power consideration, average power consumption; 2) cost optimization; 3) Bremsstrahlung considerations; 4) Focusing optics: conventional, laser focusing or super disruption. 13 refs

  17. Cost-estimating relationships for space programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandell, Humboldt C., Jr.

    1992-01-01

    Cost-estimating relationships (CERs) are defined and discussed as they relate to the estimation of theoretical costs for space programs. The paper primarily addresses CERs based on analogous relationships between physical and performance parameters to estimate future costs. Analytical estimation principles are reviewed examining the sources of errors in cost models, and the use of CERs is shown to be affected by organizational culture. Two paradigms for cost estimation are set forth: (1) the Rand paradigm for single-culture single-system methods; and (2) the Price paradigms that incorporate a set of cultural variables. For space programs that are potentially subject to even small cultural changes, the Price paradigms are argued to be more effective. The derivation and use of accurate CERs is important for developing effective cost models to analyze the potential of a given space program.

  18. The Output Cost of Gender Discrimination: A Model-Based Macroeconomic Estimate

    OpenAIRE

    Cavalcanti, Tiago V. de V.; Tavares, José

    2008-01-01

    Gender-based discrimination is a pervasive and costly phenomenon. To a greater or lesser extent, all economies present a gender wage gap, associated with lower female labour force participation rates and higher fertility. This paper presents a growth model where saving, fertility and labour market participation are endogenously determined, and there is wage discrimination. The model is calibrated to mimic the performance of the U.S. economy, including the gender wage gap and relative female l...

  19. Estimating cost efficiency of Turkish commercial banks under unobserved heterogeneity with stochastic frontier models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hakan Gunes

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to investigate the cost efficiency of Turkish commercial banks over the restructuring period of the Turkish banking system, which coincides with the 2008 financial global crisis and the 2010 European sovereign debt crisis. To this end, within the stochastic frontier framework, we employ true fixed effects model, where the unobserved bank heterogeneity is integrated in the inefficiency distribution at a mean level. To select the cost function with the most appropriate inefficiency correlates, we first adopt a search algorithm and then utilize the model averaging approach to verify that our results are not exposed to model selection bias. Overall, our empirical results reveal that cost efficiencies of Turkish banks have improved over time, with the effects of the 2008 and 2010 crises remaining rather limited. Furthermore, not only the cost efficiency scores but also impacts of the crises on those scores appear to vary with regard to bank size and ownership structure, in accordance with much of the existing literature.

  20. Laser cost experience and estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shofner, F.M.; Hoglund, R.L.

    1977-01-01

    This report addresses the question of estimating the capital and operating costs for LIS (Laser Isotope Separation) lasers, which have performance requirements well beyond the state of mature art. This question is seen with different perspectives by political leaders, ERDA administrators, scientists, and engineers concerned with reducing LIS to economically successful commercial practice, on a timely basis. Accordingly, this report attempts to provide ''ballpark'' estimators for capital and operating costs and useful design and operating information for lasers based on mature technology, and their LIS analogs. It is written very basically and is intended to respond about equally to the perspectives of administrators, scientists, and engineers. Its major contributions are establishing the current, mature, industrialized laser track record (including capital and operating cost estimators, reliability, types of application, etc.) and, especially, evolution of generalized estimating procedures for capital and operating cost estimators for new laser design

  1. The Psychology of Cost Estimating

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, Andy

    2016-01-01

    Cost estimation for large (and even not so large) government programs is a challenge. The number and magnitude of cost overruns associated with large Department of Defense (DoD) and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) programs highlight the difficulties in developing and promulgating accurate cost estimates. These overruns can be the result of inadequate technology readiness or requirements definition, the whims of politicians or government bureaucrats, or even as failures of the cost estimating profession itself. However, there may be another reason for cost overruns that is right in front of us, but only recently have we begun to grasp it: the fact that cost estimators and their customers are human. The last 70+ years of research into human psychology and behavioral economics have yielded amazing findings into how we humans process and use information to make judgments and decisions. What these scientists have uncovered is surprising: humans are often irrational and illogical beings, making decisions based on factors such as emotion and perception, rather than facts and data. These built-in biases to our thinking directly affect how we develop our cost estimates and how those cost estimates are used. We cost estimators can use this knowledge of biases to improve our cost estimates and also to improve how we communicate and work with our customers. By understanding how our customers think, and more importantly, why they think the way they do, we can have more productive relationships and greater influence. By using psychology to our advantage, we can more effectively help the decision maker and our organizations make fact-based decisions.

  2. COST ESTIMATING RELATIONSHIPS IN ONSHORE DRILLING PROJECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ricardo de Melo e Silva Accioly

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Cost estimating relationships (CERs are very important tools in the planning phases of an upstream project. CERs are, in general, multiple regression models developed to estimate the cost of a particular item or scope of a project. They are based in historical data that should pass through a normalization process before fitting a model. In the early phases they are the primary tool for cost estimating. In later phases they are usually used as an estimation validation tool and sometimes for benchmarking purposes. As in any other modeling methodology there are number of important steps to build a model. In this paper the process of building a CER to estimate drilling cost of onshore wells will be addressed.

  3. A model to estimate the cost of the National Essential Public Health Services Package in Beijing, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Delu; Wong, Sabrina T; Chen, Wei; Xin, Qianqian; Wang, Lihong; Cui, Mingming; Yin, Tao; Li, Ruili; Zheng, Xiaoguo; Yang, Huiming; Yu, Juanjuan; Chen, Bowen; Yang, Weizhong

    2015-06-06

    In order to address several health challenges, the Chinese government issued the National Essential Public Health Services Package (NEPHSP) in 2009. In China's large cities, the lack of funding for community health centers and consequent lack of comprehensive services and high quality care has become a major challenge. However, no study has been carried out to estimate the cost of delivering the services in the package. This project was to develop a cost estimation approach appropriate to the context and use it to calculate the cost of the NEPHSP in Beijing in 2011. By adjusting models of cost analysis of primary health care and workload indicators of staffing need developed by the World Health Organization, a model was developed to estimate the cost of the services in the package through an intensive interactive process. A total of 17 community health centers from eight administrative districts in Beijing were selected. Their service volume and expenditure data in 2010 were used to evaluate the costs of providing the NEPHSP in Beijing based on the applied model. The total workload of all types of primary health care in 17 sample centers was equivalent to the workload requirement for 14,056,402 standard clinic visits. The total expenditure of the 17 sample centers was 26,329,357.62 USD in 2010. The cost of the workload requirement of one standard clinic visit was 1.87 USD. The workload of the NEPHSP was equivalent to 5,514,777 standard clinic visits (39.23 % of the total workload). The model suggests that the cost of the package in Beijing was 7.95 USD per capita in 2010. The cost of the NEPHSP in urban areas was lower than suburban areas: 7.31 and 8.65 USD respectively. The average investment of 3.97 USD per capita in NEPHSP was lower than the amount needed to meet its running costs. NEPHSP in Beijing is therefore underfunded. Additional investment is needed, and a dynamic cost estimate mechanism should be introduced to ensure services remain adequately funded.

  4. A risk-adjusted financial model to estimate the cost of a video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery lobectomy programme.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunelli, Alessandro; Tentzeris, Vasileios; Sandri, Alberto; McKenna, Alexandra; Liew, Shan Liung; Milton, Richard; Chaudhuri, Nilanjan; Kefaloyannis, Emmanuel; Papagiannopoulos, Kostas

    2016-05-01

    To develop a clinically risk-adjusted financial model to estimate the cost associated with a video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery (VATS) lobectomy programme. Prospectively collected data of 236 VATS lobectomy patients (August 2012-December 2013) were analysed retrospectively. Fixed and variable intraoperative and postoperative costs were retrieved from the Hospital Accounting Department. Baseline and surgical variables were tested for a possible association with total cost using a multivariable linear regression and bootstrap analyses. Costs were calculated in GBP and expressed in Euros (EUR:GBP exchange rate 1.4). The average total cost of a VATS lobectomy was €11 368 (range €6992-€62 535). Average intraoperative (including surgical and anaesthetic time, overhead, disposable materials) and postoperative costs [including ward stay, high dependency unit (HDU) or intensive care unit (ICU) and variable costs associated with management of complications] were €8226 (range €5656-€13 296) and €3029 (range €529-€51 970), respectively. The following variables remained reliably associated with total costs after linear regression analysis and bootstrap: carbon monoxide lung diffusion capacity (DLCO) 0.05) in 86% of the samples. A hypothetical patient with COPD and DLCO less than 60% would cost €4270 more than a patient without COPD and with higher DLCO values (€14 793 vs €10 523). Risk-adjusting financial data can help estimate the total cost associated with VATS lobectomy based on clinical factors. This model can be used to audit the internal financial performance of a VATS lobectomy programme for budgeting, planning and for appropriate bundled payment reimbursements. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

  5. DC-Obesity: A New Model for Estimating Differential Lifetime Costs of Overweight and Obesity by Socioeconomic Status.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonntag, Diana; Jarczok, Marc N; Ali, Shehzad

    2017-09-01

    The aim of this study was to quantify the magnitude of lifetime costs of overweight and obesity by socioeconomic status (SES). Differential Costs (DC)-Obesity is a new model that uses time-to-event simulation and the Markov modeling approach to compare lifetime excess costs of overweight and obesity among individuals with low, middle, and high SES. SES was measured by a multidimensional aggregated index based on level of education, occupational class, and income by using longitudinal data of the German Socioeconomic Panel (SOEP). Random-effects meta-analysis was applied to combine estimates of (in)direct costs of overweight and obesity. DC-Obesity brings attention to opposite socioeconomic gradients in lifetime costs due to obesity compared to overweight. Compared to individuals with obesity and high SES, individuals with obesity and low SES had lifetime excess costs that were two times higher (€8,526). In contrast, these costs were 20% higher in groups with overweight and high SES than in groups with overweight and low SES (€2,711). The results of this study indicate that SES may play a pivotal role in designing cost-effective and sustainable interventions to prevent and treat overweight and obesity. DC-Obesity may help public policy planners to make informed decisions about obesity programs targeted at vulnerable SES groups. © 2017 The Obesity Society.

  6. Project Cost Estimation for Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-02-26

    For Nevada Department of Transportation (NDOT), there are far too many projects that ultimately cost much more than initially planned. Because project nominations are linked to estimates of future funding and the analysis of system needs, the inaccur...

  7. Guideline to Estimate Decommissioning Costs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yun, Taesik; Kim, Younggook; Oh, Jaeyoung [KHNP CRI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    The primary objective of this work is to provide guidelines to estimate the decommissioning cost as well as the stakeholders with plausible information to understand the decommissioning activities in a reasonable manner, which eventually contribute to acquiring the public acceptance for the nuclear power industry. Although several cases of the decommissioning cost estimate have been made for a few commercial nuclear power plants, the different technical, site-specific and economic assumptions used make it difficult to interpret those cost estimates and compare them with that of a relevant plant. Trustworthy cost estimates are crucial to plan a safe and economic decommissioning project. The typical approach is to break down the decommissioning project into a series of discrete and measurable work activities. Although plant specific differences derived from the economic and technical assumptions make a licensee difficult to estimate reliable decommissioning costs, estimating decommissioning costs is the most crucial processes since it encompasses all the spectrum of activities from the planning to the final evaluation on whether a decommissioning project has successfully been preceded from the perspective of safety and economic points. Hence, it is clear that tenacious efforts should be needed to successfully perform the decommissioning project.

  8. Advanced Composite Air Frame Life Cycle Cost Estimating

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-19

    the ACCA based on the cost . This cost analysis takes into account the increased performance parameters of the new airframe structure. This research...20 Advanced Composite Cargo Aircraft ( ACCA ) ..........................................................23 viii Cost Estimation...establishing the procurement strategies and life cycle cost (LCC) model cost estimations. The current LCC models do not take into account the potential cost

  9. Estimating the Cost-Effectiveness of HIV Prevention Programmes in Vietnam, 2006-2010: A Modelling Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Quang Duy Pham

    Full Text Available Vietnam has been largely reliant on international support in its HIV response. Over 2006-2010, a total of US$480 million was invested in its HIV programmes, more than 70% of which came from international sources. This study investigates the potential epidemiological impacts of these programmes and their cost-effectiveness.We conducted a data synthesis of HIV programming, spending, epidemiological, and clinical outcomes. Counterfactual scenarios were defined based on assumed programme coverage and behaviours had the programmes not been implemented. An epidemiological model, calibrated to reflect the actual epidemiological trends, was used to estimate plausible ranges of programme impacts. The model was then used to estimate the costs per averted infection, death, and disability adjusted life-year (DALY.Based on observed prevalence reductions amongst most population groups, and plausible counterfactuals, modelling suggested that antiretroviral therapy (ART and prevention programmes over 2006-2010 have averted an estimated 50,600 [95% uncertainty bound: 36,300-68,900] new infections and 42,600 [36,100-54,100] deaths, resulting in 401,600 [312,200-496,300] fewer DALYs across all population groups. HIV programmes in Vietnam have cost an estimated US$1,972 [1,447-2,747], US$2,344 [1,843-2,765], and US$248 [201-319] for each averted infection, death, and DALY, respectively.Our evaluation suggests that HIV programmes in Vietnam have most likely had benefits that are cost-effective. ART and direct HIV prevention were the most cost-effective interventions in reducing HIV disease burden.

  10. Estimating the Cost-Effectiveness of HIV Prevention Programmes in Vietnam, 2006-2010: A Modelling Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pham, Quang Duy; Wilson, David P.; Kerr, Cliff C.; Shattock, Andrew J.; Do, Hoa Mai; Duong, Anh Thuy; Nguyen, Long Thanh; Zhang, Lei

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Vietnam has been largely reliant on international support in its HIV response. Over 2006-2010, a total of US$480 million was invested in its HIV programmes, more than 70% of which came from international sources. This study investigates the potential epidemiological impacts of these programmes and their cost-effectiveness. Methods We conducted a data synthesis of HIV programming, spending, epidemiological, and clinical outcomes. Counterfactual scenarios were defined based on assumed programme coverage and behaviours had the programmes not been implemented. An epidemiological model, calibrated to reflect the actual epidemiological trends, was used to estimate plausible ranges of programme impacts. The model was then used to estimate the costs per averted infection, death, and disability adjusted life-year (DALY). Results Based on observed prevalence reductions amongst most population groups, and plausible counterfactuals, modelling suggested that antiretroviral therapy (ART) and prevention programmes over 2006-2010 have averted an estimated 50,600 [95% uncertainty bound: 36,300–68,900] new infections and 42,600 [36,100–54,100] deaths, resulting in 401,600 [312,200–496,300] fewer DALYs across all population groups. HIV programmes in Vietnam have cost an estimated US$1,972 [1,447–2,747], US$2,344 [1,843–2,765], and US$248 [201–319] for each averted infection, death, and DALY, respectively. Conclusions Our evaluation suggests that HIV programmes in Vietnam have most likely had benefits that are cost-effective. ART and direct HIV prevention were the most cost-effective interventions in reducing HIV disease burden. PMID:26196290

  11. A Transmission-Cost-Based Model to Estimate the Amount of Market-Integrable Wind Resources

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Morales González, Juan Miguel; Pinson, Pierre; Madsen, Henrik

    2012-01-01

    are made to share the expenses in transmission derived from their integration, they may see the doors of electricity markets closed for not being competitive enough. This paper presents a model to decide the amount of wind resources that are economically exploitable at a given location from a transmission......In the pursuit of the large-scale integration of wind power production, it is imperative to evaluate plausible frictions among the stochastic nature of wind generation, electricity markets, and the investments in transmission required to accommodate larger amounts of wind. If wind producers......-cost perspective. This model accounts for the uncertain character of wind by using a modeling framework based on stochastic optimization, simulates market barriers by means of a bi-level structure, and considers the financial risk of investments in transmission through the conditional value-at-risk. The major...

  12. Estimating the implied cost of carbon in future scenarios using a CGE model: The Case of Colorado

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hannum, Christopher; Cutler, Harvey; Iverson, Terrence; Keyser, David

    2017-01-01

    Using Colorado as a case study, we develop a state-level computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that reflects the roles of coal, natural gas, wind, solar, and hydroelectricity in supplying electricity. We focus on the economic impact of implementing Colorado's existing Renewable Portfolio Standard, updated in 2013. This requires that 25% of state generation come from qualifying renewable sources by 2020. We evaluate the policy under a variety of assumptions regarding wind integration costs and assumptions on the persistence of federal subsidies for wind. Specifically, we estimate the implied price of carbon as the carbon price at which a state-level policy would pass a state-level cost-benefit analysis, taking account of estimated greenhouse gas emission reductions and ancillary benefits from corresponding reductions in criteria pollutants. Our findings suggest that without the Production Tax Credit (federal aid), the state policy of mandating renewable power generation (RPS) is costly to state actors, with an implied cost of carbon of about $17 per ton of CO2 with a 3% discount rate. Federal aid makes the decision between natural gas and wind nearly cost neutral for Colorado. - Highlights: • If variability cost is low and renewables are federally subsidized, RPS is beneficial. • With no PTC or high variability cost, drop in real consumption less than 0.1%. • With PTC phaseout and high variability cost ICP is low, between $7.16 and $11.45. • With no PTC and high variability cost ICP is between $12.66 and $17.34 per ton.

  13. Cost-estimating for commercial digital printing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keif, Malcolm G.

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to document current cost-estimating practices used in commercial digital printing. A research study was conducted to determine the use of cost-estimating in commercial digital printing companies. This study answers the questions: 1) What methods are currently being used to estimate digital printing? 2) What is the relationship between estimating and pricing digital printing? 3) To what extent, if at all, do digital printers use full-absorption, all-inclusive hourly rates for estimating? Three different digital printing models were identified: 1) Traditional print providers, who supplement their offset presswork with digital printing for short-run color and versioned commercial print; 2) "Low-touch" print providers, who leverage the power of the Internet to streamline business transactions with digital storefronts; 3) Marketing solutions providers, who see printing less as a discrete manufacturing process and more as a component of a complete marketing campaign. Each model approaches estimating differently. Understanding and predicting costs can be extremely beneficial. Establishing a reliable system to estimate those costs can be somewhat challenging though. Unquestionably, cost-estimating digital printing will increase in relevance in the years ahead, as margins tighten and cost knowledge becomes increasingly more critical.

  14. Parametric cost estimation for space science missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lillie, Charles F.; Thompson, Bruce E.

    2008-07-01

    Cost estimation for space science missions is critically important in budgeting for successful missions. The process requires consideration of a number of parameters, where many of the values are only known to a limited accuracy. The results of cost estimation are not perfect, but must be calculated and compared with the estimates that the government uses for budgeting purposes. Uncertainties in the input parameters result from evolving requirements for missions that are typically the "first of a kind" with "state-of-the-art" instruments and new spacecraft and payload technologies that make it difficult to base estimates on the cost histories of previous missions. Even the cost of heritage avionics is uncertain due to parts obsolescence and the resulting redesign work. Through experience and use of industry best practices developed in participation with the Aerospace Industries Association (AIA), Northrop Grumman has developed a parametric modeling approach that can provide a reasonably accurate cost range and most probable cost for future space missions. During the initial mission phases, the approach uses mass- and powerbased cost estimating relationships (CER)'s developed with historical data from previous missions. In later mission phases, when the mission requirements are better defined, these estimates are updated with vendor's bids and "bottoms- up", "grass-roots" material and labor cost estimates based on detailed schedules and assigned tasks. In this paper we describe how we develop our CER's for parametric cost estimation and how they can be applied to estimate the costs for future space science missions like those presented to the Astronomy & Astrophysics Decadal Survey Study Committees.

  15. Cost estimation of Kyoto Protocol

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Di Giulio, Enzo

    2005-01-01

    This article proposes a reflection on important aspects in the costs determination performance of Kyoto Protocol. The evaluation of the main models evidence possible impacts on the economies. A key role in the determination of the cost is represented by the relative hypothesis to emission trading and the projects CDM-JI and from the political capacity at the cost negative or equal to zero [it

  16. Statistical methods of estimating mining costs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, K.R.

    2011-01-01

    Until it was defunded in 1995, the U.S. Bureau of Mines maintained a Cost Estimating System (CES) for prefeasibility-type economic evaluations of mineral deposits and estimating costs at producing and non-producing mines. This system had a significant role in mineral resource assessments to estimate costs of developing and operating known mineral deposits and predicted undiscovered deposits. For legal reasons, the U.S. Geological Survey cannot update and maintain CES. Instead, statistical tools are under development to estimate mining costs from basic properties of mineral deposits such as tonnage, grade, mineralogy, depth, strip ratio, distance from infrastructure, rock strength, and work index. The first step was to reestimate "Taylor's Rule" which relates operating rate to available ore tonnage. The second step was to estimate statistical models of capital and operating costs for open pit porphyry copper mines with flotation concentrators. For a sample of 27 proposed porphyry copper projects, capital costs can be estimated from three variables: mineral processing rate, strip ratio, and distance from nearest railroad before mine construction began. Of all the variables tested, operating costs were found to be significantly correlated only with strip ratio.

  17. A Comparative Study of Learning Curve Models in Defense Airframe Cost Estimating

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-26

    production history and availability of relevant airframe costs. F-15 airframe costs were discovered in two data bases. The F-15 A-D airframe lot...an assembly line at Ford or Toyota . Given this dynamic, assuming the real incompressibility factor is somewhere between 0.0 and 0.1 is not

  18. Cost Estimates and Investment Decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Emhjellen, Kjetil; Emhjellen Magne; Osmundsen, Petter

    2001-08-01

    When evaluating new investment projects, oil companies traditionally use the discounted cashflow method. This method requires expected cashflows in the numerator and a risk adjusted required rate of return in the denominator in order to calculate net present value. The capital expenditure (CAPEX) of a project is one of the major cashflows used to calculate net present value. Usually the CAPEX is given by a single cost figure, with some indication of its probability distribution. In the oil industry and many other industries, it is common practice to report a CAPEX that is the estimated 50/50 (median) CAPEX instead of the estimated expected (expected value) CAPEX. In this article we demonstrate how the practice of using a 50/50 (median) CAPEX, when the cost distributions are asymmetric, causes project valuation errors and therefore may lead to wrong investment decisions with acceptance of projects that have negative net present values. (author)

  19. The Impact of Learning Curve Model Selection and Criteria for Cost Estimation Accuracy in the DoD

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-04-30

    different in the future due to machines” • Heightened scrutiny of cost estimates • Budget Control Act of 2011 seeks to reduce federal deficit ...qÜáêíÉÉåíÜ=^ååì~ä= ^Åèìáëáíáçå=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ= póãéçëáìã= qÜìêëÇ~ó=pÉëëáçåë= sçäìãÉ=ff= = The Impact of Learning Curve Model Selection and Criteria for Cost...Assistant Division Director, Institute for Defense Analyses Bruce Harmon, Research Staff Member, Institute for Defense Analyses The Impact of Learning

  20. Quantitative estimation of the cost of parasitic castration in a Helisoma anceps population using a matrix population model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Negovetich, N J; Esch, G W

    2008-10-01

    Larval trematodes frequently castrate their snail intermediate hosts. When castrated, the snails do not contribute offspring to the population, yet they persist and compete with the uninfected individuals for the available food resources. Parasitic castration should reduce the population growth rate lambda, but the magnitude of this decrease is unknown. The present study attempted to quantify the cost of parasitic castration at the level of the population by mathematically modeling the population of the planorbid snail Helisoma anceps in Charlie's Pond, North Carolina. Analysis of the model identified the life-history trait that most affects lambda, and the degree to which parasitic castration can lower lambda. A period matrix product model was constructed with estimates of fecundity, survival, growth rates, and infection probabilities calculated in a previous study. Elasticity analysis was performed by increasing the values of the life-history traits by 10% and recording the percentage change in lambda. Parasitic castration resulted in a 40% decrease in lambda of H. anceps. Analysis of the model suggests that decreasing the size at maturity was more effective at reducing the cost of castration than increasing survival or growth rates of the snails. The current matrix model was the first to mathematically describe a snail population, and the predictions of the model are in agreement with published research.

  1. Estimating the fitness cost and benefit of cefixime resistance in Neisseria gonorrhoeae to inform prescription policy: A modelling study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lilith K Whittles

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Gonorrhoea is one of the most common bacterial sexually transmitted infections in England. Over 41,000 cases were recorded in 2015, more than half of which occurred in men who have sex with men (MSM. As the bacterium has developed resistance to each first-line antibiotic in turn, we need an improved understanding of fitness benefits and costs of antibiotic resistance to inform control policy and planning. Cefixime was recommended as a single-dose treatment for gonorrhoea from 2005 to 2010, during which time resistance increased, and subsequently declined.We developed a stochastic compartmental model representing the natural history and transmission of cefixime-sensitive and cefixime-resistant strains of Neisseria gonorrhoeae in MSM in England, which was applied to data on diagnoses and prescriptions between 2008 and 2015. We estimated that asymptomatic carriers play a crucial role in overall transmission dynamics, with 37% (95% credible interval CrI 24%-52% of infections remaining asymptomatic and untreated, accounting for 89% (95% CrI 82%-93% of onward transmission. The fitness cost of cefixime resistance in the absence of cefixime usage was estimated to be such that the number of secondary infections caused by resistant strains is only about half as much as for the susceptible strains, which is insufficient to maintain persistence. However, we estimated that treatment of cefixime-resistant strains with cefixime was unsuccessful in 83% (95% CrI 53%-99% of cases, representing a fitness benefit of resistance. This benefit was large enough to counterbalance the fitness cost when 31% (95% CrI 26%-36% of cases were treated with cefixime, and when more than 55% (95% CrI 44%-66% of cases were treated with cefixime, the resistant strain had a net fitness advantage over the susceptible strain. Limitations include sparse data leading to large intervals on key model parameters and necessary assumptions in the modelling of a complex epidemiological process

  2. Estimating the opportunity costs of reducing carbon dioxide emissions via avoided deforestation, using integrated assessment modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Overmars, K.P.; Stehfest, E.; Tabeau, A.A.; Meijl, van J.C.M.; Beltran, A.M.; Kram, T.

    2014-01-01

    Estimates show that, in recent years, deforestation and forest degradation accounted for about 17% of global greenhouse gas emissions. The implementation of REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries) is suggested to provide substantial emission

  3. Proposed Reliability/Cost Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delionback, L. M.

    1982-01-01

    New technique estimates cost of improvement in reliability for complex system. Model format/approach is dependent upon use of subsystem cost-estimating relationships (CER's) in devising cost-effective policy. Proposed methodology should have application in broad range of engineering management decisions.

  4. African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control 1995-2015: Model-Estimated Health Impact and Cost

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L.E. Coffeng (Luc); W.A. Stolk (Wilma); H.G.M. Zouré (Honorat G.); J.L. Veerman (Lennert); K.B. Agblewonu (Koffi); M.E. Murdoch (Michele); M. Noma (Mounkaila); G. Fobi (Grace); J.H. Richardus (Jan Hendrik); D.A.P. Bundy (Donald A.); J.D.F. Habbema (Dik); S.J. de Vlas (Sake); U.V. Amazigo (Uche)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractBackground: Onchocerciasis causes a considerable disease burden in Africa, mainly through skin and eye disease. Since 1995, the African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) has coordinated annual mass treatment with ivermectin in 16 countries. In this study, we estimate the health

  5. Supplemental report on cost estimates'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers have completed an analysis of the Department of Energy's (DOE) Fiscal Year (FY) 1993 budget request for its Environmental Restoration and Waste Management (ERWM) program. The results were presented to an interagency review group (IAG) of senior-Administration officials for their consideration in the budget process. This analysis included evaluations of the underlying legal requirements and cost estimates on which the ERWM budget request was based. The major conclusions are contained in a separate report entitled, ''Interagency Review of the Department of Energy Environmental Restoration and Waste Management Program.'' This Corps supplemental report provides greater detail on the cost analysis

  6. Estimating the cost of production stoppage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delionback, L. M.

    1979-01-01

    Estimation model considers learning curve quantities, and time of break to forecast losses due to break in production schedule. Major parameters capable of predicting costs are number of units made prior to production sequence, length of production break, and slope of learning curve produced prior to break.

  7. Selected Tether Applications Cost Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keeley, Michael G.

    1988-01-01

    Diverse cost-estimating techniques and data combined into single program. Selected Tether Applications Cost Model (STACOM 1.0) is interactive accounting software tool providing means for combining several independent cost-estimating programs into fully-integrated mathematical model capable of assessing costs, analyzing benefits, providing file-handling utilities, and putting out information in text and graphical forms to screen, printer, or plotter. Program based on Lotus 1-2-3, version 2.0. Developed to provide clear, concise traceability and visibility into methodology and rationale for estimating costs and benefits of operations of Space Station tether deployer system.

  8. Estimating the Costs of Preventive Interventions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, E. Michael; Porter, Michele M.; Ayers, Tim S.; Kaplan, Debra L.; Sandler, Irwin

    2007-01-01

    The goal of this article is to improve the practice and reporting of cost estimates of prevention programs. It reviews the steps in estimating the costs of an intervention and the principles that should guide estimation. The authors then review prior efforts to estimate intervention costs using a sample of well-known but diverse studies. Finally,…

  9. An Empirical Model Building Criterion Based on Prediction with Applications in Parametric Cost Estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-08-01

    varia- ble is denoted by 7, the total sum of squares of deviations from that mean is defined by n - SSTO - (-Y) (2.6) iul and the regression sum of...squares by SSR - SSTO - SSE (2.7) II 14 A selection criterion is a rule according to which a certain model out of the 2p possible models is labeled "best...dis- cussed next. 1. The R2 Criterion The coefficient of determination is defined by R2 . 1 - SSE/ SSTO . (2.8) It is clear that R is the proportion of

  10. Attrition Cost Model Instruction Manual

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yanagiura, Takeshi

    2012-01-01

    This instruction manual explains in detail how to use the Attrition Cost Model program, which estimates the cost of student attrition for a state's higher education system. Programmed with SAS, this model allows users to instantly calculate the cost of attrition and the cumulative attrition rate that is based on the most recent retention and…

  11. A model for cost estimation of system for piggery wastes treatment ponds: a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Waldir Medri

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available This article presents the results from the monitoring of a system of ponds for the treatment of piggery wastes, carried out during a 20 months period, with the objective to determine design parameters for the optimization of the treatment system. A series composed of two anaerobic ponds, one facultative pond and one water hyacinth pond, gave an efficiency of 97% in the removal of BOD5, 93% for total phosphorus, 91% for total Kjeldahl nitrogen and a removal of 7 log units for fecal coliforms. A model of the optimization incurred in the treatment of these wastes was developed, within economic concepts.Este artigo apresenta resultados do monitoramento de um sistema de lagoas para tratamento de dejetos suínos, realizados durante um período de 20 meses, com o objetivo de encontrar parâmetros operacionais para otimização do sistema de tratamento. O sistema é composto por duas lagoas anaeróbias, uma facultativa e uma de aguapés, em séries, com uma eficiência de 97% na remoção da DBO5, 93% para o fósforo total, 91% para o nitrogênio total e uma redução de 7 unidades log para os coliformes fecais. Um modelo de otimização para tratamento destes resíduos foi desenvolvido usando os conceitos econômicos.

  12. Contingency Cost estimation for Research reactor Decommissioning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jin, Hyung Gon; Hong, Yun Jeong

    2016-01-01

    There are many types of cost items in decommissioning cost estimation, however, contingencies are for unforeseen elements of cost within the defined project scope. Regulatory body wants to reasonable quantification for this issue. Many countries have adopted the breakdown of activity dependent and period-dependent costs to structure their estimates. Period-dependent costs could be broken down into defined time frames to reduce overall uncertainties. Several countries apply this notion by having different contingency factors for different phases of the project. This study is a compilation of contingency cost of research reactor and for each country. Simulation techniques using TRIM, MATLAB, and PSpice can be useful tools for designing detector channels. Thus far TRIM, MATLAB and PSpice have been used to calculate the detector current output pulse for SiC semiconductor detectors and to model the pulses that propagate through potential detector channels. This model is useful for optimizing the detector and the resolution for application to neutron monitoring in the Generation IV power reactors

  13. Contingency Cost estimation for Research reactor Decommissioning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jin, Hyung Gon; Hong, Yun Jeong [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    There are many types of cost items in decommissioning cost estimation, however, contingencies are for unforeseen elements of cost within the defined project scope. Regulatory body wants to reasonable quantification for this issue. Many countries have adopted the breakdown of activity dependent and period-dependent costs to structure their estimates. Period-dependent costs could be broken down into defined time frames to reduce overall uncertainties. Several countries apply this notion by having different contingency factors for different phases of the project. This study is a compilation of contingency cost of research reactor and for each country. Simulation techniques using TRIM, MATLAB, and PSpice can be useful tools for designing detector channels. Thus far TRIM, MATLAB and PSpice have been used to calculate the detector current output pulse for SiC semiconductor detectors and to model the pulses that propagate through potential detector channels. This model is useful for optimizing the detector and the resolution for application to neutron monitoring in the Generation IV power reactors.

  14. Cost Estimation for Research Reactor Decommissioning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-01-01

    One of the IAEA's statutory objectives is to 'seek to accelerate and enlarge the contribution of atomic energy to peace, health and prosperity throughout the world'. One way this objective is achieved is through the publication of a range of technical series. Two of these are the IAEA Nuclear Energy Series and the IAEA Safety Standards Series. According to Article III.A.6 of the IAEA Statute, the safety standards establish 'standards of safety for protection of health and minimization of danger to life and property.' The safety standards include the Safety Fundamentals, Safety Requirements and Safety Guides. These standards are written primarily in a regulatory style, and are binding on the IAEA for its own programmes. The principal users are the regulatory bodies in Member States and other national authorities. The IAEA Nuclear Energy Series comprises reports designed to encourage and assist R and D on, and application of, nuclear energy for peaceful uses. This includes practical examples to be used by owners and operators of utilities in Member States, implementing organizations, academia, and government officials, among others. This information is presented in guides, reports on technology status and advances, and best practices for peaceful uses of nuclear energy based on inputs from international experts. The IAEA Nuclear Energy Series complements the IAEA Safety Standards Series. The purpose of this publication is to develop a costing methodology and a software tool in order to support cost estimation for research reactor decommissioning. The costing methodology is intended for the preliminary cost estimation stages for research reactor decommissioning with limited inventory data and other input data available. Existing experience in decommissioning costing is considered. As the basis for the cost calculation structure, the costing model uses the International Structure for Decommissioning Costing (ISDC) that is recommended by the IAEA, the Organisation for

  15. Solid rocket motor cost model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harney, A. G.; Raphael, L.; Warren, S.; Yakura, J. K.

    1972-01-01

    A systematic and standardized procedure for estimating life cycle costs of solid rocket motor booster configurations. The model consists of clearly defined cost categories and appropriate cost equations in which cost is related to program and hardware parameters. Cost estimating relationships are generally based on analogous experience. In this model the experience drawn on is from estimates prepared by the study contractors. Contractors' estimates are derived by means of engineering estimates for some predetermined level of detail of the SRM hardware and program functions of the system life cycle. This method is frequently referred to as bottom-up. A parametric cost analysis is a useful technique when rapid estimates are required. This is particularly true during the planning stages of a system when hardware designs and program definition are conceptual and constantly changing as the selection process, which includes cost comparisons or trade-offs, is performed. The use of cost estimating relationships also facilitates the performance of cost sensitivity studies in which relative and comparable cost comparisons are significant.

  16. Methodology for modelling plug-in electric vehicles in the power system and cost estimates for a system with either smart or dumb electric vehicles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kiviluoma, Juha; Meibom, Peter

    2011-01-01

    The article estimates the costs of plug-in electric vehicles (EVs) in a future power system as well as the benefits from smart charging and discharging EVs (smart EVs). To arrive in a good estimate, a generation planning model was used to create power plant portfolios, which were operated in a more...... detailed unit commitment and dispatch model. In both models the charging and discharging of EVs is optimised together with the rest of the power system. Neither the system cost nor the market price of electricity for EVs turned out to be high (36–263 €/vehicle/year in the analysed scenarios). Most...

  17. Food irradiation : estimates of cost of processing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krishnamurthy, K.; Bongirwar, D.R.

    1987-01-01

    For estimating the cost of food irradiation, three factors have to be taken into consideration. These are : (1) capital cost incurred on irradiation device and its installation, (2) recurring or running cost which includes maintenance cost and operational expenditure, and (3) product specific cost dependent on the factors specific to the food item to be processed, its storage, handling and distribution. A simple method is proposed to provide estimates of capital costs and running costs and it is applied to prepare a detailed estimate of costs for irradiation processing of onions and fish in India. The cost of processing onions worked out to be between Rs. 40 to 120 per 1000 Kg and for fish Rs 354 per 1000 Kg. These estimates do not take into account transparation costs and fluctuations in marketing procedures. (M.G.B.). 7 tables

  18. Cost estimation tools in Germany and the UK. Comparison of cost estimates and actual costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pfeifer, W.; Gordelier, S.; Drake, V.

    2005-01-01

    Full text: Accurate cost estimation for future decommissioning projects is a matter of considerable importance, especially for ensuring that sufficient funds will be available at the time of project implementation. This paper looks at the experience of cost estimation and real implementation outcomes from two countries, Germany and the UK, and draws lessons for the future. In Germany, cost estimates for the decommissioning of power reactors are updated every two years. For this purpose, the STILLKO program of the NIS Company is used. So far, Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe has successfully decommissioned two prototype reactor facilities. Re-cultivation of the premises has already been completed. At the moment, the activated components of the multi-purpose research reactor (MZFR), the first pressurized water reactor in Germany that was moderated and cooled with heavy water, and of the prototype fast breeder reactor (KNK) are being dismantled remotely. Consequently, vast experience exists in particular for the updating of total costs on the basis of actually incurred expenses. The further the dismantling work proceeds, the more reliable is the total cost estimate. Here, the development of the estimated MZFR decommissioning costs shall be presented and compared with the estimates obtained for a German reference PWR-type power reactor of 1200 MW. In this way: - common features of the prototype reactor and power reactor shall be emphasized, - several parameters leading to an increase in the estimated costs shall be highlighted, - cost risks shall be outlined with the remote dismantling of the reactor pressure vessel serving as an example, - calculation parameters shall be presented, and - recommendations shall be made for a consistent estimation of costs. The United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority (UKAEA) has a major programme for the environmental remediation of its former research and development sites at Dounreay, Windscale, Harwell and Winfrith together with the need to

  19. Trajectory-Based Operations (TBO) Cost Estimation, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Innovation Laboratory, Inc., proposes to build a tool to estimate airline costs under TBO. This tool includes a cost model that explicitly reasons about traffic...

  20. Preliminary cost estimating for the nuclear industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klumpar, I.V.; Soltz, K.M.

    1985-01-01

    The nuclear industry has higher costs for personnel, equipment, construction, and engineering than conventional industry, which means that cost estimation procedures may need adjustment. The authors account for the special technical and labor requirements of the nuclear industry in making adjustments to equipment and installation cost estimations. Using illustrative examples, they show that conventional methods of preliminary cost estimation are flexible enough for application to emerging industries if their cost structure is similar to that of the process industries. If not, modifications can provide enough engineering and cost data for a statistical analysis. 9 references, 14 figures, 4 tables

  1. A generic tool for cost estimating in aircraft design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Castagne, S.; Curran, R.; Rothwell, A.; Price, M.; Benard, E.; Raghunathan, S.

    2008-01-01

    A methodology to estimate the cost implications of design decisions by integrating cost as a design parameter at an early design stage is presented. The model is developed on a hierarchical basis, the manufacturing cost of aircraft fuselage panels being analysed in this paper. The manufacturing cost

  2. PV O&M Cost Model and Cost Reduction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walker, Andy

    2017-03-15

    This is a presentation on PV O&M cost model and cost reduction for the annual Photovoltaic Reliability Workshop (2017), covering estimating PV O&M costs, polynomial expansion, and implementation of Net Present Value (NPV) and reserve account in cost models.

  3. Assuring Software Cost Estimates: Is it an Oxymoron?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hihn, Jarius; Tregre, Grant

    2013-01-01

    The software industry repeatedly observes cost growth of well over 100% even after decades of cost estimation research and well-known best practices, so "What's the problem?" In this paper we will provide an overview of the current state oj software cost estimation best practice. We then explore whether applying some of the methods used in software assurance might improve the quality of software cost estimates. This paper especially focuses on issues associated with model calibration, estimate review, and the development and documentation of estimates as part alan integrated plan.

  4. Cost estimating for CERCLA remedial alternatives a unit cost methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brettin, R.W.; Carr, D.J.; Janke, R.J.

    1995-06-01

    The United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Guidance for Conducting Remedial Investigations and Feasibility Studies Under CERCLA, Interim Final, dated October 1988 (EPA 1988) requires a detailed analysis be conducted of the most promising remedial alternatives against several evaluation criteria, including cost. To complete the detailed analysis, order-of-magnitude cost estimates (having an accuracy of +50 percent to -30 percent) must be developed for each remedial alternative. This paper presents a methodology for developing cost estimates of remedial alternatives comprised of various technology and process options with a wide range of estimated contaminated media quantities. In addition, the cost estimating methodology provides flexibility for incorporating revisions to remedial alternatives and achieves the desired range of accuracy. It is important to note that the cost estimating methodology presented here was developed as a concurrent path to the development of contaminated media quantity estimates. This methodology can be initiated before contaminated media quantities are estimated. As a result, this methodology is useful in developing cost estimates for use in screening and evaluating remedial technologies and process options. However, remedial alternative cost estimates cannot be prepared without the contaminated media quantity estimates. In the conduct of the feasibility study for Operable Unit 5 at the Fernald Environmental Management Project (FEMP), fourteen remedial alternatives were retained for detailed analysis. Each remedial alternative was composed of combinations of remedial technologies and processes which were earlier determined to be best suited for addressing the media-specific contaminants found at the FEMP site, and achieving desired remedial action objectives

  5. Towards Greater Harmonisation of Decommissioning Cost Estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Sullivan, Patrick; ); Laraia, Michele; ); LaGuardia, Thomas S.

    2010-01-01

    The NEA Decommissioning Cost Estimation Group (DCEG), in collaboration with the IAEA Waste Technology Section and the EC Directorate-General for Energy and Transport, has recently studied cost estimation practices in 12 countries - Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States. Its findings are to be published in an OECD/NEA report entitled Cost Estimation for Decommissioning: An International Overview of Cost Elements, Estimation Practices and Reporting Requirements. This booklet highlights the findings contained in the full report. (authors)

  6. An Overview Of Tool For Response Action Cost Estimating (TRACE)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferries, S.R.; Klink, K.L.; Ostapkowicz, B.

    2012-01-01

    Tools and techniques that provide improved performance and reduced costs are important to government programs, particularly in current times. An opportunity for improvement was identified for preparation of cost estimates used to support the evaluation of response action alternatives. As a result, CH2M HILL Plateau Remediation Company has developed Tool for Response Action Cost Estimating (TRACE). TRACE is a multi-page Microsoft Excel(reg s ign) workbook developed to introduce efficiencies into the timely and consistent production of cost estimates for response action alternatives. This tool combines costs derived from extensive site-specific runs of commercially available remediation cost models with site-specific and estimator-researched and derived costs, providing the best estimating sources available. TRACE also provides for common quantity and key parameter links across multiple alternatives, maximizing ease of updating estimates and performing sensitivity analyses, and ensuring consistency.

  7. Process-based Cost Estimation for Ramjet/Scramjet Engines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Brijendra; Torres, Felix; Nesman, Miles; Reynolds, John

    2003-01-01

    Process-based cost estimation plays a key role in effecting cultural change that integrates distributed science, technology and engineering teams to rapidly create innovative and affordable products. Working together, NASA Glenn Research Center and Boeing Canoga Park have developed a methodology of process-based cost estimation bridging the methodologies of high-level parametric models and detailed bottoms-up estimation. The NASA GRC/Boeing CP process-based cost model provides a probabilistic structure of layered cost drivers. High-level inputs characterize mission requirements, system performance, and relevant economic factors. Design alternatives are extracted from a standard, product-specific work breakdown structure to pre-load lower-level cost driver inputs and generate the cost-risk analysis. As product design progresses and matures the lower level more detailed cost drivers can be re-accessed and the projected variation of input values narrowed, thereby generating a progressively more accurate estimate of cost-risk. Incorporated into the process-based cost model are techniques for decision analysis, specifically, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and functional utility analysis. Design alternatives may then be evaluated not just on cost-risk, but also user defined performance and schedule criteria. This implementation of full-trade study support contributes significantly to the realization of the integrated development environment. The process-based cost estimation model generates development and manufacturing cost estimates. The development team plans to expand the manufacturing process base from approximately 80 manufacturing processes to over 250 processes. Operation and support cost modeling is also envisioned. Process-based estimation considers the materials, resources, and processes in establishing cost-risk and rather depending on weight as an input, actually estimates weight along with cost and schedule.

  8. Cost Estimating Handbook for Environmental Restoration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-01-01

    Environmental restoration (ER) projects have presented the DOE and cost estimators with a number of properties that are not comparable to the normal estimating climate within DOE. These properties include: An entirely new set of specialized expressions and terminology. A higher than normal exposure to cost and schedule risk, as compared to most other DOE projects, due to changing regulations, public involvement, resource shortages, and scope of work. A higher than normal percentage of indirect costs to the total estimated cost due primarily to record keeping, special training, liability, and indemnification. More than one estimate for a project, particularly in the assessment phase, in order to provide input into the evaluation of alternatives for the cleanup action. While some aspects of existing guidance for cost estimators will be applicable to environmental restoration projects, some components of the present guidelines will have to be modified to reflect the unique elements of these projects. The purpose of this Handbook is to assist cost estimators in the preparation of environmental restoration estimates for Environmental Restoration and Waste Management (EM) projects undertaken by DOE. The DOE has, in recent years, seen a significant increase in the number, size, and frequency of environmental restoration projects that must be costed by the various DOE offices. The coming years will show the EM program to be the largest non-weapons program undertaken by DOE. These projects create new and unique estimating requirements since historical cost and estimating precedents are meager at best. It is anticipated that this Handbook will enhance the quality of cost data within DOE in several ways by providing: The basis for accurate, consistent, and traceable baselines. Sound methodologies, guidelines, and estimating formats. Sources of cost data/databases and estimating tools and techniques available at DOE cost professionals

  9. Video distribution system cost model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gershkoff, I.; Haspert, J. K.; Morgenstern, B.

    1980-01-01

    A cost model that can be used to systematically identify the costs of procuring and operating satellite linked communications systems is described. The user defines a network configuration by specifying the location of each participating site, the interconnection requirements, and the transmission paths available for the uplink (studio to satellite), downlink (satellite to audience), and voice talkback (between audience and studio) segments of the network. The model uses this information to calculate the least expensive signal distribution path for each participating site. Cost estimates are broken downy by capital, installation, lease, operations and maintenance. The design of the model permits flexibility in specifying network and cost structure.

  10. Procedure for estimating permanent total enclosure costs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lukey, M E; Prasad, C; Toothman, D A; Kaplan, N

    1999-07-01

    Industries that use add-on control devices must adequately capture emissions before delivering them to the control device. One way to capture emissions is to use permanent total enclosures (PTEs). By definition, an enclosure which meets the US Environmental Protection Agency's five-point criteria is a PTE and has a capture efficiency of 100%. Since costs play an important role in regulatory development, in selection of control equipment, and in control technology evaluations for permitting purposes, EPA has developed a Control Cost Manual for estimating costs of various items of control equipment. EPA's Manual does not contain any methodology for estimating PTE costs. In order to assist environmental regulators and potential users of PTEs, a methodology for estimating PTE costs was developed under contract with EPA, by Pacific Environmental Services, Inc. (PES) and is the subject of this paper. The methodology for estimating PTE costs follows the approach used for other control devices in the Manual. It includes procedures for sizing various components of a PTE and for estimating capital as well as annual costs. It contains verification procedures for demonstrating compliance with EPA's five-point criteria. In addition, procedures are included to determine compliance with Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) standards. Meeting these standards is an important factor in properly designing PTEs. The methodology is encoded in Microsoft Exel spreadsheets to facilitate cost estimation and PTE verification. Examples are given throughout the methodology development and in the spreadsheets to illustrate the PTE design, verification, and cost estimation procedures.

  11. Demystifying the Cost Estimation Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obi, Samuel C.

    2010-01-01

    In manufacturing today, nothing is more important than giving a customer a clear and straight-forward accounting of what their money has purchased. Many potentially promising return business orders are lost because of unclear, ambiguous, or improper billing. One of the best ways of resolving cost bargaining conflicts is by providing a…

  12. The impact and cost-effectiveness of nonavalent HPV vaccination in the United States: Estimates from a simplified transmission model

    OpenAIRE

    Chesson, Harrell W.; Markowitz, Lauri E.; Hariri, Susan; Ekwueme, Donatus U.; Saraiya, Mona

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: The objective of this study was to assess the incremental costs and benefits of the 9-valent HPV vaccine (9vHPV) compared with the quadrivalent HPV vaccine (4vHPV). Like 4vHPV, 9vHPV protects against HPV types 6, 11, 16, and 18. 9vHPV also protects against 5 additional HPV types 31, 33, 45, 52, and 58. Methods: We adapted a previously published model of the impact and cost-effectiveness of 4vHPV to include the 5 additional HPV types in 9vHPV. The vaccine strategies we examined w...

  13. Contractor-style tunnel cost estimating

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scapuzzi, D.

    1990-06-01

    Keeping pace with recent advances in construction technology is a challenge for the cost estimating engineer. Using an estimating style that simulates the actual construction process and is similar in style to the contractor's estimate will give a realistic view of underground construction costs. For a contractor-style estimate, a mining method is chosen; labor crews, plant and equipment are selected, and advance rates are calculated for the various phases of work which are used to determine the length of time necessary to complete each phase of work. The durations are multiplied by the cost or labor and equipment per unit of time and, along with the costs for materials and supplies, combine to complete the estimate. Variations in advance rates, ground support, labor crew size, or other areas are more easily analyzed for their overall effect on the cost and schedule of a project. 14 figs

  14. Cost estimating for large nuclear projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duggal, A.; Hunt, M.

    2004-01-01

    In today's market, the generation of electricity is a very competitive business, which is constantly under the watchful eye of the media and public. Nuclear power faces a lot of competition from other sources such as hydro, coal and gas. Controlling costs, monitoring costs, feedback, industry knowledge and up to date cost estimating tools are essential for a nuclear company to compete on a long term basis. This paper reviews the terminology and estimating principles used for the construction of new nuclear plants, lifetime operating costs, and the costs associated with refurbishment work. (author)

  15. The impact and cost-effectiveness of nonavalent HPV vaccination in the United States: Estimates from a simplified transmission model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chesson, Harrell W; Markowitz, Lauri E; Hariri, Susan; Ekwueme, Donatus U; Saraiya, Mona

    2016-06-02

    The objective of this study was to assess the incremental costs and benefits of the 9-valent HPV vaccine (9vHPV) compared with the quadrivalent HPV vaccine (4vHPV). Like 4vHPV, 9vHPV protects against HPV types 6, 11, 16, and 18. 9vHPV also protects against 5 additional HPV types 31, 33, 45, 52, and 58. We adapted a previously published model of the impact and cost-effectiveness of 4vHPV to include the 5 additional HPV types in 9vHPV. The vaccine strategies we examined were (1) 4vHPV for males and females; (2) 9vHPV for females and 4vHPV for males; and (3) 9vHPV for males and females. In the base case, 9vHPV cost $13 more per dose than 4vHPV, based on available vaccine price information. Providing 9vHPV to females compared with 4vHPV for females (assuming 4vHPV for males in both scenarios) was cost-saving regardless of whether or not cross-protection for 4vHPV was assumed. The cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained by 9vHPV for both sexes (compared with 4vHPV for both sexes) was < $0 (cost-saving) when assuming no cross-protection for 4vHPV and $8,600 when assuming cross-protection for 4vHPV. Compared with a vaccination program of 4vHPV for both sexes, a vaccination program of 9vHPV for both sexes can improve health outcomes and can be cost-saving.

  16. Estimation of optimal educational cost per medical student.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Eunbae B; Lee, Seunghee

    2009-09-01

    This study aims to estimate the optimal educational cost per medical student. A private medical college in Seoul was targeted by the study, and its 2006 learning environment and data from the 2003~2006 budget and settlement were carefully analyzed. Through interviews with 3 medical professors and 2 experts in the economics of education, the study attempted to establish the educational cost estimation model, which yields an empirically computed estimate of the optimal cost per student in medical college. The estimation model was based primarily upon the educational cost which consisted of direct educational costs (47.25%), support costs (36.44%), fixed asset purchases (11.18%) and costs for student affairs (5.14%). These results indicate that the optimal cost per student is approximately 20,367,000 won each semester; thus, training a doctor costs 162,936,000 won over 4 years. Consequently, we inferred that the tuition levels of a local medical college or professional medical graduate school cover one quarter or one-half of the per- student cost. The findings of this study do not necessarily imply an increase in medical college tuition; the estimation of the per-student cost for training to be a doctor is one matter, and the issue of who should bear this burden is another. For further study, we should consider the college type and its location for general application of the estimation method, in addition to living expenses and opportunity costs.

  17. A Survey of Cost Estimating Methodologies for Distributed Spacecraft Missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foreman, Veronica L.; Le Moigne, Jacqueline; de Weck, Oliver

    2016-01-01

    Satellite constellations present unique capabilities and opportunities to Earth orbiting and near-Earth scientific and communications missions, but also present new challenges to cost estimators. An effective and adaptive cost model is essential to successful mission design and implementation, and as Distributed Spacecraft Missions (DSM) become more common, cost estimating tools must become more representative of these types of designs. Existing cost models often focus on a single spacecraft and require extensive design knowledge to produce high fidelity estimates. Previous research has examined the limitations of existing cost practices as they pertain to the early stages of mission formulation, for both individual satellites and small satellite constellations. Recommendations have been made for how to improve the cost models for individual satellites one-at-a-time, but much of the complexity in constellation and DSM cost modeling arises from constellation systems level considerations that have not yet been examined. This paper constitutes a survey of the current state-of-theart in cost estimating techniques with recommendations for improvements to increase the fidelity of future constellation cost estimates. To enable our investigation, we have developed a cost estimating tool for constellation missions. The development of this tool has revealed three high-priority shortcomings within existing parametric cost estimating capabilities as they pertain to DSM architectures: design iteration, integration and test, and mission operations. Within this paper we offer illustrative examples of these discrepancies and make preliminary recommendations for addressing them. DSM and satellite constellation missions are shifting the paradigm of space-based remote sensing, showing promise in the realms of Earth science, planetary observation, and various heliophysical applications. To fully reap the benefits of DSM technology, accurate and relevant cost estimating capabilities

  18. Modeling a farm population to estimate on-farm compliance costs and environmental effects of a grassland extensification scheme at the regional scale

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Uthes, Sandra; Sattler, Claudia; Piorr, Annette

    2010-01-01

    We used a farm-level modeling approach to estimate on-farm compliance costs and environmental effects of a grassland extensification scheme in the district of Ostprignitz-Ruppin, Germany. The behavior of the regional farm population (n = 585) consisting of different farm types with different...... and environmental effects were heterogeneous in space and farm types as a result of different agricultural production and site characteristics. On-farm costs ranged from zero up to almost 1500 Euro/ha. Such high costs occurred only in a very small part of the regional area, whereas the majority of the grassland had...... low on-farm costs below 50 Euro/ha. Environmental effects were moderate and greater on high-yield than on low-yield grassland. The low effectiveness combined with low on-farm costs in large parts of the region indicates that the scheme is not well targeted. The soft scheme design results from...

  19. Estimating and understanding DOE waste management costs'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, J.S.; Sherick, M.J.

    1995-01-01

    This paper examines costs associated with cleaning up the US Department of Energy's (DOE's) nuclear facilities, with particular emphasis on the waste management program. Life-cycle waste management costs have been compiled and reported in the DOE Baseline Environmental Management Report (BEMR). Waste management costs are a critical issue for DOE because of the current budget constraints. The DOE sites are struggling to accomplish their environmental management objectives given funding scenarios that are well below anticipated waste management costs. Through the BEMR process, DOE has compiled complex-wide cleanup cost estimates and has begun analysis of these costs with respect to alternative waste management scenarios and policy strategies. From this analysis, DOE is attempting to identify the major cost drivers and prioritize environmental management activities to achieve maximum utilization of existing funding. This paper provides an overview of the methodology DOE has used to estimate and analyze some waste management costs, including the key data requirements and uncertainties

  20. Handbook for cost estimating. A method for developing estimates of costs for generic actions for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ball, J.R.; Cohen, S.; Ziegler, E.Z.

    1984-10-01

    This document provides overall guidance to assist the NRC in preparing the types of cost estimates required by the Regulatory Analysis Guidelines and to assist in the assignment of priorities in resolving generic safety issues. The Handbook presents an overall cost model that allows the cost analyst to develop a chronological series of activities needed to implement a specific regulatory requirement throughout all applicable commercial LWR power plants and to identify the significant cost elements for each activity. References to available cost data are provided along with rules of thumb and cost factors to assist in evaluating each cost element. A suitable code-of-accounts data base is presented to assist in organizing and aggregating costs. Rudimentary cost analysis methods are described to allow the analyst to produce a constant-dollar, lifetime cost for the requirement. A step-by-step example cost estimate is included to demonstrate the overall use of the Handbook

  1. A model study of cost estimates of decontamination and decommissioning with an emphasis to derive cost functions for alpha contaminated material using OMEGA code

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kristofova, Kristina; Daniska, Vladimir; Ondra, Frantisek; Rehak, Ivan; Vasko, Marek [DECOM SLOVAKIA spol. s.r.o., Trnava (Slovakia)

    2004-12-01

    The presented study is focused on model decommissioning cost calculations for primary circuit of A-1 nuclear power plant in Jaslovske Bohunice. In addition, the survey of advanced decommissioning costing is included together with impact analyses of contamination on particular decommissioning parameters. OMEGA code decommissioning cost calculations for primary circuit of A-1 NPP presented in the study are performed and evaluated under the following conditions: different contamination level of inner and outer surfaces; different waste management scenarios; application and non-application of pre-dismantling decontamination; different start of decommissioning: 2004, 2010, 2020, 2030, 2040; radionuclide composition of primary circuit contamination in A-1 NPP with occurrence of alpha radionuclides and fission products as a consequence of operational accident with damaged fuel cladding; radionuclide composition of primary circuit contamination in V-2 NPP in Jaslovske Bohunice as a representative NPP with an operation without accidents and therefore neither non-alpha contaminants nor fission products are included. The results of all the above mentioned conditions impacts on calculated costs, manpower, exposure and distribution of materials arisen from decommissioning are evaluated in detail within the calculation sensitivity analysis.

  2. A model study of cost estimates of decontamination and decommissioning with an emphasis to derive cost functions for alpha-contaminated material using OMEGA code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kristofova, Kristina; Daniska, Vladimir; Ondra, Frantisek; Rehak, Ivan; Vasko, Marek

    2004-12-01

    The presented study is focused on model decommissioning cost calculations for primary circuit of A-1 nuclear power plant in Jaslovske Bohunice. In addition, the survey of advanced decommissioning costing is included together with impact analyses of contamination on particular decommissioning parameters. OMEGA code decommissioning cost calculations for primary circuit of A-1 NPP presented in the study are performed and evaluated under the following conditions: different contamination level of inner and outer surfaces; different waste management scenarios; application and non-application of pre-dismantling decontamination; different start of decommissioning: 2004, 2010, 2020, 2030, 2040; radionuclide composition of primary circuit contamination in A-1 NPP with occurrence of alpha radionuclides and fission products as a consequence of operational accident with damaged fuel cladding; radionuclide composition of primary circuit contamination in V-2 NPP in Jaslovske Bohunice as a representative NPP with an operation without accidents and therefore neither non-alpha contaminants nor fission products are included. The results of all the above mentioned conditions impacts on calculated costs, manpower, exposure and distribution of materials arisen from decommissioning are evaluated in detail within the calculation sensitivity analysis

  3. Estimating the costs of human space exploration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandell, Humboldt C., Jr.

    1994-01-01

    The plan for NASA's new exploration initiative has the following strategic themes: (1) incremental, logical evolutionary development; (2) economic viability; and (3) excellence in management. The cost estimation process is involved with all of these themes and they are completely dependent upon the engineering cost estimator for success. The purpose is to articulate the issues associated with beginning this major new government initiative, to show how NASA intends to resolve them, and finally to demonstrate the vital importance of a leadership role by the cost estimation community.

  4. Nuclear shipping and waste disposal cost estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hudson, C.R. II.

    1977-11-01

    Cost estimates for the shipping of spent fuel from the reactor, shipping of waste from the reprocessing plant, and disposal of reprocessing plant wastes have been made for five reactor types. The reactors considered are the light-water reactor (LWR), the mixed-oxide-fueled light-water reactor (MOX), the Canadian deuterium-uranium reactor (CANDU), the fast breeder reactor (FBR), and the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR). In addition to the cost estimates, this report provides details on the bases and assumptions used to develop the cost estimates

  5. Estimating the cost of a smoking employee.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berman, Micah; Crane, Rob; Seiber, Eric; Munur, Mehmet

    2014-09-01

    We attempted to estimate the excess annual costs that a US private employer may attribute to employing an individual who smokes tobacco as compared to a non-smoking employee. Reviewing and synthesising previous literature estimating certain discrete costs associated with smoking employees, we developed a cost estimation approach that approximates the total of such costs for U.S. employers. We examined absenteeism, presenteesim, smoking breaks, healthcare costs and pension benefits for smokers. Our best estimate of the annual excess cost to employ a smoker is $5816. This estimate should be taken as a general indicator of the extent of excess costs, not as a predictive point value. Employees who smoke impose significant excess costs on private employers. The results of this study may help inform employer decisions about tobacco-related policies. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  6. Project schedule and cost estimate report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1988-03-01

    All cost tables represent obligation dollars, at both a constant FY 1987 level and an estimated escalation level, and are based on the FY 1989 DOE Congressional Budget submittal of December 1987. The cost tables display the total UMTRA Project estimated costs, which include both Federal and state funding. The Total Estimated Cost (TEC) for the UMTRA Project is approximately $992.5 million (in 1987 escalated dollars). Project schedules have been developed that provide for Project completion by September 1994, subject to Congressional approval extending DOE's authorization under Public Law 95-604. The report contains site-specific demographic data, conceptual design assumptions, preliminary cost estimates, and site schedules. A general project overview is also presented, which includes a discussion of the basis for the schedule and cost estimates, contingency assumptions, work breakdown structure, and potential project risks. The schedules and cost estimates will be revised as necessary to reflect appropriate decisions relating to relocation of certain tailings piles, or other special design considerations or circumstances (such as revised EPA groundwater standards), and changes in the Project mission. 27 figs', 97 tabs

  7. The great environmental restoration cost estimating shootout: A blind test of three DOE cost estimating groups

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klemen, Paul

    1992-01-01

    The cost of the Department of Energy's (DOE) Environmental Restoration (ER) Program has increased steadily over the last three years and, in the process, has drawn increasing scrutiny from Congress, the public, and government agencies such as the Office of Management and Budget and the General Accounting Office. Programmatic costs have been reviewed by many groups from within the DOE as well as from outside agencies. While cost may appear to be a universally applicable barometer of project conditions, it is actually a single dimensional manifestation of a complex set of conditions. As such, variations in cost estimates can be caused by a variety of underlying factors such as changes in scope, schedule, performing organization, economic conditions, or regulatory environment. This paper will examine the subject of cost estimates by evaluating three different cost estimates prepared for a single project including two estimates prepared by project proponents and another estimate prepared by a review team. The paper identifies the reasons for cost growth as measured by the different estimates and evaluates the ability of review estimates to measure the validity of costs. The comparative technique used to test the three cost estimates will identify the reasons for changes in the estimated cost, over time, and evaluate the ability of an independent review to correctly identify the reasons for cost growth and evaluate the reasonableness of the cost proposed by the project proponents. Recommendations are made for improved cost estimates and improved cost estimate reviews. Conclusions are reached regarding the differences in estimate results that can be attributed to differences in estimating techniques, the implications of these differences for decision makers, and circumstances that are unique to environmental cost estimating. (author)

  8. Estimating the economic cost of disability in Ireland

    OpenAIRE

    Cullinan, John; Gannon, Brenda; Lyons, Seán

    2008-01-01

    Addressing the extra economic costs of disability seems a logical step towards alleviating elements of social exclusion for people with disabilities. This paper estimates the economic cost of disability in Ireland in terms of the additional spending needs that arise due to disability. It defines and estimates models of the private costs borne by families with individuals who have a disability in Ireland when compared to the wider population, both in general and by severity of illness. Our mod...

  9. HTGR Cost Model Users' Manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gandrik, A.M.

    2012-01-01

    The High Temperature Gas-Cooler Reactor (HTGR) Cost Model was developed at the Idaho National Laboratory for the Next Generation Nuclear Plant Project. The HTGR Cost Model calculates an estimate of the capital costs, annual operating and maintenance costs, and decommissioning costs for a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor. The user can generate these costs for multiple reactor outlet temperatures; with and without power cycles, including either a Brayton or Rankine cycle; for the demonstration plant, first of a kind, or nth of a kind project phases; for a single or four-pack configuration; and for a reactor size of 350 or 600 MWt. This users manual contains the mathematical models and operating instructions for the HTGR Cost Model. Instructions, screenshots, and examples are provided to guide the user through the HTGR Cost Model. This model was design for users who are familiar with the HTGR design and Excel. Modification of the HTGR Cost Model should only be performed by users familiar with Excel and Visual Basic.

  10. Procedure for estimating permanent total enclosure costs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lukey, M.E.; Prasad, C.; Toothman, D.A.; Kaplan, N.

    1999-07-01

    Industries that use add-on control devices must adequately capture emissions before delivering them to the control device. One way to capture emissions is to use permanent total enclosures (PTEs). By definition, an enclosure which meets the US Environmental Protection Agency's five-point criteria is a PTE and has a capture efficiency of 100%. Since costs play an important role in regulatory development, in selection of control equipment, and in control technology evaluations for permitting purposes, EPA has developed a Control Cost Manual for estimating costs of various items of control equipment. EPA's Manual does not contain any methodology for estimating PTE costs. In order to assist environmental regulators and potential users of PTEs, a methodology for estimating PTE costs was developed under contract with EPA, by Pacific Environmental Services, Inc. (PES) and is the subject of this paper. The methodology for estimating PTE costs follows the approach used for other control devices in the Manual. It includes procedures for sizing various components of a PTE and for estimating capital as well as annual costs. It contains verification procedures for demonstrating compliance with EPA's five-point criteria. In addition, procedures are included to determine compliance with Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) standards. Meeting these standards is an important factor in properly designing PTEs. The methodology is encoded in Microsoft Exel spreadsheets to facilitate cost estimation and PTE verification. Examples are given throughout the methodology development and in the spreadsheets to illustrate the PTE design, verification, and cost estimation procedures.

  11. Stochastic cost estimating in repository life-cycle cost analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tzemos, S.; Dippold, D.

    1986-01-01

    The conceptual development, the design, and the final construction and operation of a nuclear repository span many decades. Given this lengthy time frame, it is quite challenging to obtain a good approximation of the repository life-cycle cost. One can deal with this challenge by using an analytic method, the method of moments, to explicitly assess the uncertainty of the estimate. A series expansion is used to approximate the uncertainty distribution of the cost estimate. In this paper, the moment methodology is derived and is illustrated through a numerical example. The range of validity of the approximation is discussed. The method of moments is compared to the traditional stochastic cost estimating methods and found to provide more and better information on cost uncertainty. The tow methods converge to identical results as the number of convolved variables increases and approaches the range where the central limit theorem is valid

  12. NASA Instrument Cost/Schedule Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habib-Agahi, Hamid; Mrozinski, Joe; Fox, George

    2011-01-01

    NASA's Office of Independent Program and Cost Evaluation (IPCE) has established a number of initiatives to improve its cost and schedule estimating capabilities. 12One of these initiatives has resulted in the JPL developed NASA Instrument Cost Model. NICM is a cost and schedule estimator that contains: A system level cost estimation tool; a subsystem level cost estimation tool; a database of cost and technical parameters of over 140 previously flown remote sensing and in-situ instruments; a schedule estimator; a set of rules to estimate cost and schedule by life cycle phases (B/C/D); and a novel tool for developing joint probability distributions for cost and schedule risk (Joint Confidence Level (JCL)). This paper describes the development and use of NICM, including the data normalization processes, data mining methods (cluster analysis, principal components analysis, regression analysis and bootstrap cross validation), the estimating equations themselves and a demonstration of the NICM tool suite.

  13. Parametric Cost Estimates for an International Competitive Edge

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murphy, L.T.; Hickey, M.

    2006-01-01

    This paper summarizes the progress to date by CH2M HILL and the UKAEA in development of a parametric modelling capability for estimating the costs of large nuclear decommissioning projects in the United Kingdom (UK) and Europe. The ability to successfully apply parametric cost estimating techniques will be a key factor to commercial success in the UK and European multi-billion dollar waste management, decommissioning and environmental restoration markets. The most useful parametric models will be those that incorporate individual components representing major elements of work: reactor decommissioning, fuel cycle facility decommissioning, waste management facility decommissioning and environmental restoration. Models must be sufficiently robust to estimate indirect costs and overheads, permit pricing analysis and adjustment, and accommodate the intricacies of international monetary exchange, currency fluctuations and contingency. The development of a parametric cost estimating capability is also a key component in building a forward estimating strategy. The forward estimating strategy will enable the preparation of accurate and cost-effective out-year estimates, even when work scope is poorly defined or as yet indeterminate. Preparation of cost estimates for work outside the organizations current sites, for which detailed measurement is not possible and historical cost data does not exist, will also be facilitated. (authors)

  14. 40 CFR 261.142 - Cost estimate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... hazardous waste, and the potential cost of closing the facility as a treatment, storage, and disposal... facility. (3) The cost estimate may not incorporate any salvage value that may be realized with the sale of... no later than 30 days after a change in a facility's operating plan or design that would increase the...

  15. Structural Estimation of Stock Market Participation Costs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khorunzhina, Natalia

    2013-01-01

    education programs can affect consumers' investment decisions. Using household data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, I estimate the magnitude of the participation cost, allowing for individual heterogeneity in it. The results show the average stock market participation cost is about 4–6% of labor...

  16. Estimation and Prediction of Avoidable Health Care Costs of Cardiovascular Diseases and Type 2 Diabetes Through Adequate Dairy Food Consumption: A Systematic Review and Micro Simulation Modeling Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Javanbakht, Mehdi; Jamshidi, Ahmad Reza; Baradaran, Hamid Reza; Mohammadi, Zahra; Mashayekhi, Atefeh; Shokraneh, Farhad; Rezai Hamami, Mohsen; Yazdani Bakhsh, Raziyeh; Shabaninejad, Hossien; Delavari, Sajad; Tehrani, Arash

    2018-05-01

    Recent evidence from prospective cohort studies show a relationship between consumption of dairy foods and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). This association highlights the importance of dairy foods consumption in prevention of these diseases and also reduction of associated healthcare costs. The aim of this study was to estimate avoidable healthcare costs of CVD and T2D through adequate dairy foods consumption in Iran. This was a multistage modelling study. We conducted a systematic literature review in PubMed and EMBASE to identify any association between incidence of CVD and T2DM and dairy foods intake, and also associated relative risks. We obtained age- and sex-specific dairy foods consumption level and healthcare expenditures from national surveys and studies. Patient level simulation Markov models were constructed to predict the disease incidence, patient population size and associated healthcare costs for current and optimal dairy foods consumption at different time horizons (1, 5, 10 and 20 years). All parameters including costs and transition probabilities were defined as statistical distributions in the models, and all analyses were conducted by accounting for first and second order uncertainty. The systematic review results indicated that dairy foods consumption was inversely associated with incidence of T2DM, coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke. We estimated that the introduction of a diet containing 3 servings of dairy foods per day may produce a $0.43 saving in annual per capita healthcare costs in Iran in the first year due to saving in cost of CVD and T2DM treatment. The estimated savings in per capita healthcare costs were $8.42, $39.97 and $190.25 in 5, 10 and 20-years' time, respectively. Corresponding total aggregated avoidable costs for the entire Iranian population within the study time horizons were $33.83, $661.31, $3,138.21 and $14,934.63 million, respectively. Our analysis demonstrated that increasing

  17. Estimating the impact of enterprise resource planning project management decisions on post-implementation maintenance costs: a case study using simulation modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fryling, Meg

    2010-11-01

    Organisations often make implementation decisions with little consideration for the maintenance phase of an enterprise resource planning (ERP) system, resulting in significant recurring maintenance costs. Poor cost estimations are likely related to the lack of an appropriate framework for enterprise-wide pre-packaged software maintenance, which requires an ongoing relationship with the software vendor (Markus, M.L., Tanis, C., and Fenema, P.C., 2000. Multisite ERP implementation. CACM, 43 (4), 42-46). The end result is that critical project decisions are made with little empirical data, resulting in substantial long-term cost impacts. The product of this research is a formal dynamic simulation model that enables theory testing, scenario exploration and policy analysis. The simulation model ERPMAINT1 was developed by combining and extending existing frameworks in several research domains, and by incorporating quantitative and qualitative case study data. The ERPMAINT1 model evaluates tradeoffs between different ERP project management decisions and their impact on post-implementation total cost of ownership (TCO). Through model simulations a variety of dynamic insights were revealed that could assist ERP project managers. Major findings from the simulation show that upfront investments in mentoring and system exposure translate to long-term cost savings. The findings also indicate that in addition to customisations, add-ons have a significant impact on TCO.

  18. Decommissioning Cost Estimating -The ''Price'' Approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Manning, R.; Gilmour, J.

    2002-01-01

    Over the past 9 years UKAEA has developed a formalized approach to decommissioning cost estimating. The estimating methodology and computer-based application are known collectively as the PRICE system. At the heart of the system is a database (the knowledge base) which holds resource demand data on a comprehensive range of decommissioning activities. This data is used in conjunction with project specific information (the quantities of specific components) to produce decommissioning cost estimates. PRICE is a dynamic cost-estimating tool, which can satisfy both strategic planning and project management needs. With a relatively limited analysis a basic PRICE estimate can be produced and used for the purposes of strategic planning. This same estimate can be enhanced and improved, primarily by the improvement of detail, to support sanction expenditure proposals, and also as a tender assessment and project management tool. The paper will: describe the principles of the PRICE estimating system; report on the experiences of applying the system to a wide range of projects from contaminated car parks to nuclear reactors; provide information on the performance of the system in relation to historic estimates, tender bids, and outturn costs

  19. Cost Model for Digital Preservation: Cost of Digital Migration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kejser, Ulla Bøgvad; Nielsen, Anders Bo; Thirifays, Alex

    2011-01-01

    The Danish Ministry of Culture has funded a project to set up a model for costing preservation of digital materials held by national cultural heritage institutions. The overall objective of the project was to increase cost effectiveness of digital preservation activities and to provide a basis...... for comparing and estimating future cost requirements for digital preservation. In this study we describe an activity-based costing methodology for digital preservation based on the Open Archice Information System (OAIS) Reference Model. Within this framework, which we denote the Cost Model for Digital...... Preservation (CMDP), the focus is on costing the functional entity Preservation Planning from the OAIS and digital migration activities. In order to estimate these costs we have identified cost-critical activities by analysing the functions in the OAIS model and the flows between them. The analysis has been...

  20. Preliminary Multivariable Cost Model for Space Telescopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahl, H. Philip

    2010-01-01

    Parametric cost models are routinely used to plan missions, compare concepts and justify technology investments. Previously, the authors published two single variable cost models based on 19 flight missions. The current paper presents the development of a multi-variable space telescopes cost model. The validity of previously published models are tested. Cost estimating relationships which are and are not significant cost drivers are identified. And, interrelationships between variables are explored

  1. Cost estimation for decommissioning of research reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grossi, Pablo Andrade; Tello, Cledola Cassia Oliveira de; Segabinaze, Roberto de Oliveira; Daniska, Vladimir

    2013-01-01

    In the case of research reactors, the limited data that is available tends to provide only overall decommissioning costs, without any breakdown of the main cost elements. In order to address this subject, it is important to collect and analyse all available data of decommissioning costs for the research reactors. The IAEA has started the DACCORD Project focused on data analysis and costing of research reactors decommissioning. Data collection is organized in accordance with the International Structure for Decommissioning Costing (ISDC), developed jointly by the IAEA, the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and the European Commission. The specific aims of the project include the development of representative and comparative data and datasets for preliminary costing for decommissioning. This paper will focus on presenting a technique to consider several representative input data in accordance with the ISDC structure and using the CERREX (Cost Estimation for Research Reactors in Excel) software developed by IAEA. (author)

  2. Predicting Software Projects Cost Estimation Based on Mining Historical Data

    OpenAIRE

    Najadat, Hassan; Alsmadi, Izzat; Shboul, Yazan

    2012-01-01

    In this research, a hybrid cost estimation model is proposed to produce a realistic prediction model that takes into consideration software project, product, process, and environmental elements. A cost estimation dataset is built from a large number of open source projects. Those projects are divided into three domains: communication, finance, and game projects. Several data mining techniques are used to classify software projects in terms of their development complexity. Data mining techniqu...

  3. Cost Model for Digital Curation: Cost of Digital Migration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kejser, Ulla Bøgvad; Nielsen, Anders Bo; Thirifays, Alex

    2009-01-01

    The Danish Ministry of Culture is currently funding a project to set up a model for costing preservation of digital materials held by national cultural heritage institutions. The overall objective of the project is to provide a basis for comparing and estimating future financial requirements...... for digital preservation and to increase cost effectiveness of digital preservation activities. In this study we describe an activity based costing methodology for digital preservation based on the OAIS Reference Model. In order to estimate the cost of digital migrations we have identified cost critical...

  4. Cost functions of greenhouse models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linderoth, H.

    2000-01-01

    The benchmark is equal to the cost (D) caused by an increase in temperature since the middle of the nineteenth century (T) of nearly 2.5 deg. C. According to mainstream economists, the benchmark is 1-2% of GDP, but very different estimates can also be found. Even though there appears to be agreement among a number of economists that the benchmark is 1-2% of GDP, major differences exist when it comes to estimating D for different sectors. One of the main problems is how to estimate non-market activities. Normally, the benchmark is the best guess, but due to the possibility of catastrophic events this can be considerable smaller than the mean. Certainly, the cost function is skewed to the right. The benchmark is just one point on the cost curve. To a great extent, cost functions are alike in greenhouse models (D = α ''.T'' λ). Cost functions are region and sector dependent in several models. In any case, both α (benchmark) and λ are rough estimates. Besides being dependent on α and λ, the marginal emission cost depends on the discount rate. In fact, because emissions have effects continuing for many years, the discount rate is clearly the most important parameter. (au) (au)

  5. Estimating Texas motor vehicle operating costs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-10-01

    A specific Vcost model was developed for Texas conditions based on a sophisticated fuel model for light : duty vehicles, several excellent sources of secondary vehicle cost data, and the ability to measure heavy truck fuel : consumption through both ...

  6. Cost analysis and estimating tools and techniques

    CERN Document Server

    Nussbaum, Daniel

    1990-01-01

    Changes in production processes reflect the technological advances permeat­ ing our products and services. U. S. industry is modernizing and automating. In parallel, direct labor is fading as the primary cost driver while engineering and technology related cost elements loom ever larger. Traditional, labor-based ap­ proaches to estimating costs are losing their relevance. Old methods require aug­ mentation with new estimating tools and techniques that capture the emerging environment. This volume represents one of many responses to this challenge by the cost analysis profession. The Institute of Cost Analysis (lCA) is dedicated to improving the effective­ ness of cost and price analysis and enhancing the professional competence of its members. We encourage and promote exchange of research findings and appli­ cations between the academic community and cost professionals in industry and government. The 1990 National Meeting in Los Angeles, jointly spo~sored by ICA and the National Estimating Society (NES),...

  7. A general model for the estimation of societal costs of lost production and informal care in Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorenzo Pradelli

    2017-02-01

    reported HRQoL data with demographically matched Italian norms. Our results will be useful for cost-effectiveness and budget impact analyses conducted from the perspective of the Italian society and we encourage the inclusion of these costs in economic evaluations to allow decision makers to be fully informed about the costs and consequences of their decisions on healthcare interventions.

  8. Stochastic renewal process models for estimation of damage cost over the life-cycle of a structure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pandey, Mahesh D.; van der Weide, J.A.M.

    2017-01-01

    In the life-cycle cost analysis of a structure, the total cost of damage caused by external hazards like earthquakes, wind storms and flood is an important but highly uncertain component. In the literature, the expected damage cost is typically analyzed under the assumption of either the

  9. Cost Estimating Cases: Educational Tools for Cost Analysts

    Science.gov (United States)

    1993-09-01

    only appropriate documentation should be provided. In other words, students should not submit all of the documentation possible using ACEIT , only that...case was their lack of understanding of the ACEIT software used to conduct the estimate. Specifically, many students misinterpreted the cost...estimating relationships (CERs) embedded in the 49 software. Additionally, few of the students were able to properly organize the ACEIT documentation output

  10. Designer's unified cost model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freeman, William T.; Ilcewicz, L. B.; Swanson, G. D.; Gutowski, T.

    1992-01-01

    A conceptual and preliminary designers' cost prediction model has been initiated. The model will provide a technically sound method for evaluating the relative cost of different composite structural designs, fabrication processes, and assembly methods that can be compared to equivalent metallic parts or assemblies. The feasibility of developing cost prediction software in a modular form for interfacing with state of the art preliminary design tools and computer aided design programs is being evaluated. The goal of this task is to establish theoretical cost functions that relate geometric design features to summed material cost and labor content in terms of process mechanics and physics. The output of the designers' present analytical tools will be input for the designers' cost prediction model to provide the designer with a data base and deterministic cost methodology that allows one to trade and synthesize designs with both cost and weight as objective functions for optimization. The approach, goals, plans, and progress is presented for development of COSTADE (Cost Optimization Software for Transport Aircraft Design Evaluation).

  11. Designers' unified cost model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freeman, W.; Ilcewicz, L.; Swanson, G.; Gutowski, T.

    1992-01-01

    The Structures Technology Program Office (STPO) at NASA LaRC has initiated development of a conceptual and preliminary designers' cost prediction model. The model will provide a technically sound method for evaluating the relative cost of different composite structural designs, fabrication processes, and assembly methods that can be compared to equivalent metallic parts or assemblies. The feasibility of developing cost prediction software in a modular form for interfacing with state-of-the-art preliminary design tools and computer aided design programs is being evaluated. The goal of this task is to establish theoretical cost functions that relate geometric design features to summed material cost and labor content in terms of process mechanics and physics. The output of the designers' present analytical tools will be input for the designers' cost prediction model to provide the designer with a database and deterministic cost methodology that allows one to trade and synthesize designs with both cost and weight as objective functions for optimization. This paper presents the team members, approach, goals, plans, and progress to date for development of COSTADE (Cost Optimization Software for Transport Aircraft Design Evaluation).

  12. Cost estimate for electrostatically plugged cusp reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dolan, T.J.

    1977-01-01

    A preliminary design of an electrostatically plugged cusp reactor was presented in (UCRL-52142(1976)). The capital costs of the various components of this reactor are estimated and totaled for two different blanket configurations: one having an energy multiplication factor M = 1.2, and the other having M = 1.68. The unoptimized direct capital costs for these cases are found to be about 1400 and 950 $/kWe, respectively

  13. Econometric estimation of country-specific hospital costs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murray Christopher JL

    2003-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Information on the unit cost of inpatient and outpatient care is an essential element for costing, budgeting and economic-evaluation exercises. Many countries lack reliable estimates, however. WHO has recently undertaken an extensive effort to collect and collate data on the unit cost of hospitals and health centres from as many countries as possible; so far, data have been assembled from 49 countries, for various years during the period 1973–2000. The database covers a total of 2173 country-years of observations. Large gaps remain, however, particularly for developing countries. Although the long-term solution is that all countries perform their own costing studies, the question arises whether it is possible to predict unit costs for different countries in a standardized way for short-term use. The purpose of the work described in this paper, a modelling exercise, was to use the data collected across countries to predict unit costs in countries for which data are not yet available, with the appropriate uncertainty intervals. The model presented here forms part of a series of models used to estimate unit costs for the WHO-CHOICE project. The methods and the results of the model, however, may be used to predict a number of different types of country-specific unit costs, depending on the purpose of the exercise. They may be used, for instance, to estimate the costs per bed-day at different capacity levels; the "hotel" component of cost per bed-day; or unit costs net of particular components such as drugs. In addition to reporting estimates for selected countries, the paper shows that unit costs of hospitals vary within countries, sometimes by an order of magnitude. Basing cost-effectiveness studies or budgeting exercises on the results of a study of a single facility, or even a small group of facilities, is likely to be misleading.

  14. Cost estimates to guide manufacturing of composite waved beam

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ye Jinrui; Zhang Boming; Qi Haiming

    2009-01-01

    A cost estimation model on the basis of manufacturing process has been presented. In the model, the effects of the material, labor, tool and equipment were discussed, and the corresponding formulas were provided. A method of selecting estimation variables has been provided based on a case study of composite waved beam using autoclave cure. The model parameters related to the process time estimation of the lay-up procedure were analyzed and modified for different part configurations. The result shows that there is little error while comparing the estimated process time with the practical one. The model is verified to be applicable to guide the design and manufacturing of the composite material

  15. Failing to Estimate the Costs of Offshoring

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller Larsen, Marcus

    2016-01-01

    This article investigates cost estimation errors in the context of offshoring. It is argued that an imprecise estimation of the costs related to implementing a firm activity in a foreign location has a negative impact on the process performance of that activity. Performance is deterred...... as operations are likely to be disrupted by managerial distraction and resource misallocation. It is also argued that this relationship is mitigated by the extent to which firms use modularity to coordinate the activity but worsened by the extent to which ongoing communication is used. The results, based...

  16. Social opportunity cost of capital: empirical estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Townsend, S.

    1978-02-01

    This report develops estimates of the social-opportunity cost of public capital. The private and social costs of capital are found to diverge primarily because of the effects of corporate and personal income taxes. Following Harberger, the social-opportunity cost of capital is approximated by a weighted average of the returns to different classes of savers and investors where the weights are the flows of savings or investments in each class multiplied by the relevant elasticity. Estimates of these parameters are obtained and the social-opportunity cost of capital is determined to be in the range of 6.2 to 10.8%, depending upon the parameter values used. Uncertainty is found to affect the social-opportunity cost of capital in two ways. First, some allowance must be made for the chance of failure or at least of not realizing claims of a project's proponents. Second, a particular government project will change the expected variability of the returns to the government's entire portfolio of projects. In the absence of specific information about each project, the use of the economy-wide average default and risk adjustments is suggested. These are included in the empirical estimates reported. International capital markets make available private capital, the price of which is not distorted by the U.S. tax system. The inclusion of foreign sources slightly reduces the social-opportunity cost of capital. 21 references.

  17. Cost estimate of electricity produced by TPV

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palfinger, Günther; Bitnar, Bernd; Durisch, Wilhelm; Mayor, Jean-Claude; Grützmacher, Detlev; Gobrecht, Jens

    2003-05-01

    A crucial parameter for the market penetration of TPV is its electricity production cost. In this work a detailed cost estimate is performed for a Si photocell based TPV system, which was developed for electrically self-powered operation of a domestic heating system. The results are compared to a rough estimate of cost of electricity for a projected GaSb based system. For the calculation of the price of electricity, a lifetime of 20 years, an interest rate of 4.25% per year and maintenance costs of 1% of the investment are presumed. To determine the production cost of TPV systems with a power of 12-20 kW, the costs of the TPV components and 100 EUR kW-1el,peak for assembly and miscellaneous were estimated. Alternatively, the system cost for the GaSb system was derived from the cost of the photocells and from the assumption that they account for 35% of the total system cost. The calculation was done for four different TPV scenarios which include a Si based prototype system with existing technology (etasys = 1.0%), leading to 3000 EUR kW-1el,peak, an optimized Si based system using conventional, available technology (etasys = 1.5%), leading to 900 EUR kW-1el,peak, a further improved system with future technology (etasys = 5%), leading to 340 EUR kW-1el,peak and a GaSb based system (etasys = 12.3% with recuperator), leading to 1900 EUR kW-1el,peak. Thus, prices of electricity from 6 to 25 EURcents kWh-1el (including gas of about 3.5 EURcents kWh-1) were calculated and compared with those of fuel cells (31 EURcents kWh-1) and gas engines (23 EURcents kWh-1).

  18. Support to LANL: Cost estimation. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-01-01

    This report summarizes the activities and progress by ICF Kaiser Engineers conducted on behalf of Los Alamos National Laboratories (LANL) for the US Department of Energy, Office of Waste Management (EM-33) in the area of improving methods for Cost Estimation. This work was conducted between October 1, 1992 and September 30, 1993. ICF Kaiser Engineers supported LANL in providing the Office of Waste Management with planning and document preparation services for a Cost and Schedule Estimating Guide (Guide). The intent of the Guide was to use Activity-Based Cost (ABC) estimation as a basic method in preparing cost estimates for DOE planning and budgeting documents, including Activity Data Sheets (ADSs), which form the basis for the Five Year Plan document. Prior to the initiation of the present contract with LANL, ICF Kaiser Engineers was tasked to initiate planning efforts directed toward a Guide. This work, accomplished from June to September, 1992, included visits to eight DOE field offices and consultation with DOE Headquarters staff to determine the need for a Guide, the desired contents of a Guide, and the types of ABC estimation methods and documentation requirements that would be compatible with current or potential practices and expertise in existence at DOE field offices and their contractors

  19. Cost estimating Brayton and Stirling engines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortgang, H. R.

    1980-01-01

    Brayton and Stirling engines were analyzed for cost and selling price for production quantities ranging from 1000 to 400,000 units per year. Parts and components were subjected to indepth scrutiny to determine optimum manufacturing processes coupled with make or buy decisions on materials and small parts. Tooling and capital equipment costs were estimated for each detail and/or assembly. For low annual production volumes, the Brayton engine appears to have a lower cost and selling price than the Stirling Engine. As annual production quantities increase, the Stirling becomes a lower cost engine than the Brayton. Both engines could benefit cost wise if changes were made in materials, design and manufacturing process as annual production quantities increase.

  20. Estimation of Foot Plantar Center of Pressure Trajectories with Low-Cost Instrumented Insoles Using an Individual-Specific Nonlinear Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinyao Hu

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Postural control is a complex skill based on the interaction of dynamic sensorimotor processes, and can be challenging for people with deficits in sensory functions. The foot plantar center of pressure (COP has often been used for quantitative assessment of postural control. Previously, the foot plantar COP was mainly measured by force plates or complicated and expensive insole-based measurement systems. Although some low-cost instrumented insoles have been developed, their ability to accurately estimate the foot plantar COP trajectory was not robust. In this study, a novel individual-specific nonlinear model was proposed to estimate the foot plantar COP trajectories with an instrumented insole based on low-cost force sensitive resistors (FSRs. The model coefficients were determined by a least square error approximation algorithm. Model validation was carried out by comparing the estimated COP data with the reference data in a variety of postural control assessment tasks. We also compared our data with the COP trajectories estimated by the previously well accepted weighted mean approach. Comparing with the reference measurements, the average root mean square errors of the COP trajectories of both feet were 2.23 mm (±0.64 (left foot and 2.72 mm (±0.83 (right foot along the medial–lateral direction, and 9.17 mm (±1.98 (left foot and 11.19 mm (±2.98 (right foot along the anterior–posterior direction. The results are superior to those reported in previous relevant studies, and demonstrate that our proposed approach can be used for accurate foot plantar COP trajectory estimation. This study could provide an inexpensive solution to fall risk assessment in home settings or community healthcare center for the elderly. It has the potential to help prevent future falls in the elderly.

  1. Estimation of Foot Plantar Center of Pressure Trajectories with Low-Cost Instrumented Insoles Using an Individual-Specific Nonlinear Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Xinyao; Zhao, Jun; Peng, Dongsheng; Sun, Zhenglong; Qu, Xingda

    2018-02-01

    Postural control is a complex skill based on the interaction of dynamic sensorimotor processes, and can be challenging for people with deficits in sensory functions. The foot plantar center of pressure (COP) has often been used for quantitative assessment of postural control. Previously, the foot plantar COP was mainly measured by force plates or complicated and expensive insole-based measurement systems. Although some low-cost instrumented insoles have been developed, their ability to accurately estimate the foot plantar COP trajectory was not robust. In this study, a novel individual-specific nonlinear model was proposed to estimate the foot plantar COP trajectories with an instrumented insole based on low-cost force sensitive resistors (FSRs). The model coefficients were determined by a least square error approximation algorithm. Model validation was carried out by comparing the estimated COP data with the reference data in a variety of postural control assessment tasks. We also compared our data with the COP trajectories estimated by the previously well accepted weighted mean approach. Comparing with the reference measurements, the average root mean square errors of the COP trajectories of both feet were 2.23 mm (±0.64) (left foot) and 2.72 mm (±0.83) (right foot) along the medial-lateral direction, and 9.17 mm (±1.98) (left foot) and 11.19 mm (±2.98) (right foot) along the anterior-posterior direction. The results are superior to those reported in previous relevant studies, and demonstrate that our proposed approach can be used for accurate foot plantar COP trajectory estimation. This study could provide an inexpensive solution to fall risk assessment in home settings or community healthcare center for the elderly. It has the potential to help prevent future falls in the elderly.

  2. Residential outage cost estimation: Hong Kong

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woo, C.K.; Ho, T.; Shiu, A.; Cheng, Y.S.; Horowitz, I.; Wang, J.

    2014-01-01

    Hong Kong has almost perfect electricity reliability, the result of substantial investments ultimately financed by electricity consumers who may be willing to accept lower reliability in exchange for lower bills. But consumers with high outage costs are likely to reject the reliability reduction. Our ordered-logit regression analysis of the responses by 1876 households to a telephone survey conducted in June 2013 indicates that Hong Kong residents exhibit a statistically-significant preference for their existing service reliability and rate. Moreover, the average residential cost estimate for a 1-h outage is US$45 (HK$350), topping the estimates reported in 10 of the 11 studies published in the last 10 years. The policy implication is that absent additional compelling evidence, Hong Kong should not reduce its service reliability. - Highlights: • Use a contingent valuation survey to obtain residential preferences for reliability. • Use an ordered logit analysis to estimate Hong Kong's residential outage costs. • Find high outage cost estimates that imply high reliability requirements. • Conclude that sans new evidence, Hong Kong should not reduce its reliability

  3. Unmanned Aerial Vehicles unique cost estimating requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malone, P.; Apgar, H.; Stukes, S.; Sterk, S.

    Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), also referred to as drones, are aerial platforms that fly without a human pilot onboard. UAVs are controlled autonomously by a computer in the vehicle or under the remote control of a pilot stationed at a fixed ground location. There are a wide variety of drone shapes, sizes, configurations, complexities, and characteristics. Use of these devices by the Department of Defense (DoD), NASA, civil and commercial organizations continues to grow. UAVs are commonly used for intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance (ISR). They are also use for combat operations, and civil applications, such as firefighting, non-military security work, surveillance of infrastructure (e.g. pipelines, power lines and country borders). UAVs are often preferred for missions that require sustained persistence (over 4 hours in duration), or are “ too dangerous, dull or dirty” for manned aircraft. Moreover, they can offer significant acquisition and operations cost savings over traditional manned aircraft. Because of these unique characteristics and missions, UAV estimates require some unique estimating methods. This paper describes a framework for estimating UAV systems total ownership cost including hardware components, software design, and operations. The challenge of collecting data, testing the sensitivities of cost drivers, and creating cost estimating relationships (CERs) for each key work breakdown structure (WBS) element is discussed. The autonomous operation of UAVs is especially challenging from a software perspective.

  4. Fuel Burn Estimation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatterji, Gano

    2011-01-01

    Conclusions: Validated the fuel estimation procedure using flight test data. A good fuel model can be created if weight and fuel data are available. Error in assumed takeoff weight results in similar amount of error in the fuel estimate. Fuel estimation error bounds can be determined.

  5. Preliminary ITER cost and schedule estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1990-01-01

    The cost, manpower requirements, and schedule estimates for the realization of the ITER tokamak have been studied during the Conceptual Design Activities, as a result of work by the ITER Management Committee. This work was completed during the January-March, 1990 joint work session, and is presented in this report. A possible schedule shows completion of the engineering design phase in 1995, with 180 professionals, at a cost of about $250M. The construction would be completed in 2004 with a rise in professional staff to 300, and a total cost of $4900M. The machine would be operable over an 18-year period, at an annual operating cost averaging $290M. 2 figs

  6. Cost Model for Digital Preservation: Cost of Digital Migration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulla Bøgvad Kejser

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The Danish Ministry of Culture has funded a project to set up a model for costing preservation of digital materials held by national cultural heritage institutions. The overall objective of the project was to increase cost effectiveness of digital preservation activities and to provide a basis for comparing and estimating future cost requirements for digital preservation. In this study we describe an activity-based costing methodology for digital preservation based on the Open Archice Information System (OAIS Reference Model. Within this framework, which we denote the Cost Model for Digital Preservation (CMDP, the focus is on costing the functional entity Preservation Planning from the OAIS and digital migration activities. In order to estimate these costs we have identified cost-critical activities by analysing the functions in the OAIS model and the flows between them. The analysis has been supplemented with findings from the literature, and our own knowledge and experience. The identified cost-critical activities have subsequently been deconstructed into measurable components, cost dependencies have been examined, and the resulting equations expressed in a spreadsheet. Currently the model can calculate the cost of different migration scenarios for a series of preservation formats for text, images, sound, video, geodata, and spreadsheets. In order to verify the model it has been tested on cost data from two different migration projects at the Danish National Archives (DNA. The study found that the OAIS model provides a sound overall framework for the cost breakdown, but that some functions need additional detailing in order to cost activities accurately. Running the two sets of empirical data showed among other things that the model underestimates the cost of manpower-intensive migration projects, while it reinstates an often underestimated cost, which is the cost of developing migration software. The model has proven useful for estimating the

  7. Life cycle cost and risk estimation of environmental management options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shropshire, D.; Sherick, M.

    1996-01-01

    The evaluation process is demonstrated in this paper through comparative analysis of two alternative scenarios identified for the management of the alpha-contaminated fixed low-level waste currently stored at INEL. These two scenarios, the Base Case and the Delay Case, are realistic and based on actual data, but are not intended to exactly match actual plans currently being developed at INEL. Life cycle cost estimates were developed for both scenarios using the System Cost Model; resulting costs are presented and compared. Life cycle costs are shown as a function of time and also aggregated by pretreatment, treatment, storage, and disposal activities. Although there are some short-term cost savings for the Delay Case, cumulative life cycle costs eventually become much higher than costs for the Base Case over the same period of time, due mainly to the storage and repackaging necessary to accommodate the longer Delay Case schedule. Life cycle risk estimates were prepared using a new risk analysis method adapted to the System Cost Model architecture for automated, systematic cost/risk applications. Relative risk summaries are presented for both scenarios as a function of time and also aggregated by pretreatment, treatment, storage, and disposal activities. Relative risk of the Delay Case is shown to be higher than that of the Base Case. Finally, risk and cost results are combined to show how the collective information can be used to help identify opportunities for risk or cost reduction and highlight areas where risk reduction can be achieved most economically

  8. Estimating the Cost for Executing Business Processes in the Cloud

    OpenAIRE

    Vincenzo Ferme; Ana Ivanchikj; Cesare Pautasso

    2016-01-01

    Managing and running business processes in the Cloud changes how Workflow Management Systems (WfMSs) are deployed. Consequently when designing such WfMSs there is a need of determining the sweet spot in the performance vs. resource consumption trade off. While all Cloud providers agree on the pay as you go resource consumption model every provider uses a different cost model to gain a competitive edge. In this paper we present a novel method for estimating the infrastructure costs of running ...

  9. Importance of funding in decommissioning cost estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mingst, B.C.

    1987-01-01

    Decommissioning cost estimates have been made by several study groups for the decommissioning of pressurized-water and boiling-water nuclear power stations. The results of these studies are comparable when corrected for inflation and the differences in contingency factors applied by the study groups. The estimated dismantling costs differ far less than a factor of 2 in all cases, despite the design differences found in the plants that were studied. An analysis of the different methods available for funding the dismantling of these facilities shows the much stronger effect that the choice of funding methods has on the net cost of decommissioning. The total cost of dismantling may vary more than a factor of 4 from one funding method to another, assuming current or recent historical inflation rates. The funding methods evaluated include sinking funds, deposits, negative-salvage value depreciation, and insurance. These funding methods are taken from the NRC's Notice of Proposed Rulemaking description of acceptable funding methods. The funding analysis for this study was performed using the DECOST-86 computer code. The evaluation of funding options for a nuclear facility, and the appropriate choice of the funding method best for that facility, are found to be more important than detailed engineering studies in determining the net cost of decommissioning during the early portions of the plant's operating lifetime

  10. Estimation of 18FDG doses's cost

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamza, Fatma; Amouri, W.; Jardak, I.; Kallel, F.; Charfeddine, S.; Guermazi, F.

    2013-01-01

    The cyclotron facility, essentially for medical use, is far from being a simple establishment of a dedicated device to accelerate particles producing a beta plus emitter radioelement. The cyclotron site encompasses more over all necessary equipments for the production and the quality control of considered radiotracer that 18 FDG is just one example. This facility is subject to strict standards in terms of radiopharmaceutical production, radiation level, pressure level and airflow resulting in the production of a drug submitted to the MA (Marketing Authorization). These multiple factors directly influence the final cost of the dose that remains to be reachable by the patient. The aim of this work is to estimate the cost of a dose of 18 FDG to ensure financial viability of the project while accessible to the patient. The cost of the facility will entail the following: buildings and utilities, equipment and operational cost. This calculation is possible only if we define in advance the type of cyclotron, which is bound to the market needs in particular the number of PET facilities, the number of scans per day and the radioactive decay of radioelement. Our study represents a simulation that considers some hypothesis. We assumed that the cyclotron is installed in Sousse and that the PET facilities number (positon emission tomography) is 6 in which 4 are located 2 hours away. For a PET scan, the average dose per patient is about 350 MBq (5 MBq/kg) and the exam duration is about 45 minutes. Each center performs 10 tests per day. In terms of fees, we considered device and building's cost, facility amortization, consumables (target, marking accessories), maintenance, remuneration expense and the annual electricity consumption. All our calculations have been reported to the number of working days per year. The estimates were made outside the customs duties and technical assistance that may last up to 2 years. Requirements and needs were estimated at 5.4 curies per day. For

  11. Spreadsheet tool for estimating noise reduction costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frank, L.; Senden, V.; Leszczynski, Y.

    2009-01-01

    The Northeast Capital Industrial Association (NCIA) represents industry in Alberta's industrial heartland. The organization is in the process of developing a regional noise management plan (RNMP) for their member companies. The RNMP includes the development of a noise reduction cost spreadsheet tool to conduct reviews of practical noise control treatments available for individual plant equipment, inclusive of ranges of noise attenuation achievable, which produces a budgetary prediction of the installed cost of practical noise control treatments. This paper discussed the noise reduction cost spreadsheet tool, with particular reference to noise control best practices approaches and spreadsheet tool development such as prerequisite, assembling data required, approach, and unit pricing database. Use and optimization of the noise reduction cost spreadsheet tool was also discussed. It was concluded that the noise reduction cost spreadsheet tool is an easy interactive tool to estimate implementation costs related to different strategies and options of noise control mitigating measures and was very helpful in gaining insight for noise control planning purposes. 2 tabs.

  12. Cost of Capital Estimation for Highway Concessionaires in Chile

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristian Vergara-Novoa

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we present the cost of capital estimation for highway concessionaires in Chile. We estimated the cost of equity and the cost of debt and determined the capital structure for each one of twenty-four concessionaires that operate highways. We based our estimations on the developments of Sharpe (1964, Modigliani and Miller (1958, and Maquieira (2009, which were also compared with the Brusov et al. (2015 developments. We collected stock prices for different highway concessionaires around the world from Google Finance and Reuters’ websites in order to determine the Beta of equity using a representative company. After that, we estimated the cost of equity considering Hamada (1969 and a Capital Asset Pricing Model. Then, we estimated the cost of capital using the cost of debt and the capital structure of Chile’s highway concessionaires. With all above, we were able to determine the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC for highway concessions which ranges from 5.49 to 6.62%.

  13. Cost estimate of bovine tuberculosis to Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tschopp, Rea; Hattendorf, Jan; Roth, Felix; Choudhury, Adnan Ali Khan; Choudhoury, Adnan; Shaw, Alexandra; Aseffa, Abraham; Zinsstag, Jakob

    2013-01-01

    While bovine tuberculosis (BTB) has been eliminated in some industrialized countries, it prevails worldwide, particularly in Africa. In Ethiopia, BTB is prevalent as numerous studies have shown its occurrence in livestock and in abattoirs but it has not been demonstrated in wildlife and only very few cases have been found in humans. The objective of this study is to estimate the cost of BTB to Ethiopia with the aim of informing Ethiopian policy on options for BTB control. BTB in livestock affects both animal productivity and herd demographic composition. The Livestock Development Planning System (LDPS2, FAO) was modified to allow for stochastic simulation of parameters. We performed an incremental cost of disease analysis, comparing livestock production with and without BTB. For the rural scenario we considered an endemically stable 4 % comparative intradermal test (CIDT) prevalence and for the urban scenario an endemically stable 32 % CIDT prevalence among cattle. The net present value of rural Ethiopian livestock products in 2005 is estimated at 65.7 billion (thousand million) Ethiopian Birr (95 % Confidence Interval (CI) 53.8-77.7 billion Birr), which is the equivalent of 7.5 billion US$ (95 %CI 6.1-8.9 billion US$) at a rate of 8.7 Birr per US$ in 2005. The cost of BTB ranges from 646 million Birr (75.2 million US$) in 2005 to 3.1 Billion Birr in 2011 (358 million US$) but is within the range of uncertainty of our estimate and can thus not be distinguished from zero. The cost of disease in the urban livestock production ranges from 5 to 42 million Birr (500,000-4.9 million US$) between 2005 and 2011 but is also within the range of uncertainty of our estimate. Our study shows no measurable loss in asset value or cost of disease due to BTB in rural and urban production systems in Ethiopia. This does not mean that there is not a real cost of disease, but the variability of the productivity parameters and prices are high and would require more precise estimates

  14. Estimating Maintenance Cost for Web Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion IVAN

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The current paper tackles the issue of determining a method for estimating maintenance costs for web applications. The current state of research in the field of web application maintenance is summarized and leading theories and results are highlighted. The cost of web maintenance is determined by the number of man-hours invested in maintenance tasks. Web maintenance tasks are categorized into content maintenance and technical maintenance. Research is centered on analyzing technical maintenance tasks. The research hypothesis is formulated on the assumption that the number of man-hours invested in maintenance tasks can be assessed based on the web application’s user interaction level, complexity and content update effort. Data regarding the costs of maintenance tasks is collected from 24 maintenance projects implemented by a web development company that tackles a wide area of web applications. Homogeneity and diversity of collected data is submitted for debate by presenting a sample of the data and depicting the overall size and comprehensive nature of the entire dataset. A set of metrics dedicated to estimating maintenance costs in web applications is defined based on conclusions formulated by analyzing the collected data and the theories and practices dominating the current state of research. Metrics are validated with regards to the initial research hypothesis. Research hypothesis are validated and conclusions are formulated on the topic of estimating the maintenance cost of web applications. The limits of the research process which represented the basis for the current paper are enunciated. Future research topics are submitted for debate.

  15. Estimation of the cost-effectiveness of HIV prevention portfolios for people who inject drugs in the United States: A model-based analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cora L Bernard

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The risks of HIV transmission associated with the opioid epidemic make cost-effective programs for people who inject drugs (PWID a public health priority. Some of these programs have benefits beyond prevention of HIV-a critical consideration given that injection drug use is increasing across most United States demographic groups. To identify high-value HIV prevention program portfolios for US PWID, we consider combinations of four interventions with demonstrated efficacy: opioid agonist therapy (OAT, needle and syringe programs (NSPs, HIV testing and treatment (Test & Treat, and oral HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP.We adapted an empirically calibrated dynamic compartmental model and used it to assess the discounted costs (in 2015 US dollars, health outcomes (HIV infections averted, change in HIV prevalence, and discounted quality-adjusted life years [QALYs], and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs of the four prevention programs, considered singly and in combination over a 20-y time horizon. We obtained epidemiologic, economic, and health utility parameter estimates from the literature, previously published models, and expert opinion. We estimate that expansions of OAT, NSPs, and Test & Treat implemented singly up to 50% coverage levels can be cost-effective relative to the next highest coverage level (low, medium, and high at 40%, 45%, and 50%, respectively and that OAT, which we assume to have immediate and direct health benefits for the individual, has the potential to be the highest value investment, even under scenarios where it prevents fewer infections than other programs. Although a model-based analysis can provide only estimates of health outcomes, we project that, over 20 y, 50% coverage with OAT could avert up to 22,000 (95% CI: 5,200, 46,000 infections and cost US$18,000 (95% CI: US$14,000, US$24,000 per QALY gained, 50% NSP coverage could avert up to 35,000 (95% CI: 8,900, 43,000 infections and cost US$25,000 (95% CI: US

  16. The Use of Mixed Effects Models for Obtaining Low-Cost Ecosystem Carbon Stock Estimates in Mangroves of the Asia-Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bukoski, J. J.; Broadhead, J. S.; Donato, D.; Murdiyarso, D.; Gregoire, T. G.

    2016-12-01

    Mangroves provide extensive ecosystem services that support both local livelihoods and international environmental goals, including coastal protection, water filtration, biodiversity conservation and the sequestration of carbon (C). While voluntary C market projects that seek to preserve and enhance forest C stocks offer a potential means of generating finance for mangrove conservation, their implementation faces barriers due to the high costs of quantifying C stocks through measurement, reporting and verification (MRV) activities. To streamline MRV activities in mangrove C forestry projects, we develop predictive models for (i) biomass-based C stocks, and (ii) soil-based C stocks for the mangroves of the Asia-Pacific. We use linear mixed effect models to account for spatial correlation in modeling the expected C as a function of stand attributes. The most parsimonious biomass model predicts total biomass C stocks as a function of both basal area and the interaction between latitude and basal area, whereas the most parsimonious soil C model predicts soil C stocks as a function of the logarithmic transformations of both latitude and basal area. Random effects are specified by site for both models, and are found to explain a substantial proportion of variance within the estimation datasets. The root mean square error (RMSE) of the biomass C model is approximated at 24.6 Mg/ha (18.4% of mean biomass C in the dataset), whereas the RMSE of the soil C model is estimated at 4.9 mg C/cm 3 (14.1% of mean soil C). A substantial proportion of the variation in soil C, however, is explained by the random effects and thus the use of the SOC model may be most valuable for sites in which field measurements of soil C exist.

  17. Artificial intelligence, regression model, and cost estimation for removal of chlorothalonil pesticide by activated carbon prepared from casuarina charcoal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed Gar Alalm

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Chlorothalonil is a pesticide that can contaminate water bodies, detriment aquatic organisms, and cause cancers of the forestomach and kidney. In this study, a powdered activated carbon prepared from casuarina wood was used for the adsorption of chlorothalonil from aqueous solutions. Based on Scanning Electron microscopy and Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy analyses, the adsorbent material comprised pores and multiple functional groups that favored the entrapment of chlorothalonil onto its surface. At initial chlorothalonil concentration of 480 mg L−1, the equilibrium uptake capacity was 187 mg g−1 at pH: 7, adsorbent dosage: 0.5 g L−1, contact time: 40 min, and room temperature (25 ± 4 °C. The kinetic and isotherm studies indicated that the rate constant of pseudo-second-order model (k2 was 0.003 g mg−1 min−1, and the monolayer adsorption capacity was 192 mg g−1. Results from a quadratic model demonstrated that the plot of adsorption capacity versus pH, chlorothalonil concentration, adsorbent dosage, and contact time caused quadratic-concave, linear-up, flat, and quadratic-linear concave up curves, respectively. An artificial neural network with a structure of 4–5–1 was able to predict the adsorption capacity (R2: 0.982, and the sensitivity analysis using connection weights showed that pH was the most influential factor. An economic estimation using amortization and operating costs revealed that an adsorption unit subjected to 100 m3 d−1 containing chlorothalonil concentration of 250 ± 50 mg L−1 could cost 1.18 $ m−3. Keywords: Activated carbon, Artificial neural network, Chlorothalonil pesticide, Cost estimation, Kinetics and isotherms

  18. Project cost estimation techniques used by most emerging building ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Keywords: Cost estimation, estimation methods, emerging contractors, tender. Dr Solly Matshonisa .... historical cost data (data from cost accounting records and/ ..... emerging contractors in tendering. Table 13: Use of project risk management versus responsibility: expected. Internal document analysis. Checklist analysis.

  19. AES, Automated Construction Cost Estimation System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holder, D.A.

    1995-01-01

    A - Description of program or function: AES (Automated Estimating System) enters and updates the detailed cost, schedule, contingency, and escalation information contained in a typical construction or other project cost estimates. It combines this information to calculate both un-escalated and escalated and cash flow values for the project. These costs can be reported at varying levels of detail. AES differs from previous versions in at least the following ways: The schedule is entered at the WBS-Participant, Activity level - multiple activities can be assigned to each WBS-Participant combination; the spending curve is defined at the schedule activity level and a weighing factor is defined which determines percentage of cost for the WBS-Participant applied to the schedule activity; Schedule by days instead of Fiscal Year/Quarter; Sales Tax is applied at the Line Item Level- a sales tax codes is selected to indicate Material, Large Single Item, or Professional Services; a 'data filter' has been added to allow user to define data the report is to be generated for. B - Method of solution: Average Escalation Rate: The average escalation for a Bill of is calculated in three steps. 1. A table of quarterly escalation factors is calculated based on the base fiscal year and quarter of the project entered in the estimate record and the annual escalation rates entered in the Standard Value File. 2. The percentage distribution of costs by quarter for the Bill of Material is calculated based on the schedule entered and the curve type. 3. The percent in each fiscal year and quarter in the distribution is multiplied by the escalation factor for the fiscal year and quarter. The sum of these results is the average escalation rate for that Bill of Material. Schedule by curve: The allocation of costs to specific time periods is dependent on three inputs, starting schedule date, ending schedule date, and the percentage of costs allocated to each quarter. Contingency Analysis: The

  20. Estimating management costs of protected areas

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Green, Jonathan M.H.; Burgess, Neil David; Green, Rhys E.

    2012-01-01

    Despite chronic underfunding for conservation and the recognition that funds must be invested wisely, few studies have analysed the direct costs of managing protected areas at the spatial scales needed to inform local site management. Using a questionnaire survey we collected data from protected...... area managers in the Eastern Arc Mountains (EAMs) of Tanzania to establish how much is currently spent on reserve management and how much is required to meet conservation objectives. We use an information theoretic approach to model spatial variation in these costs using a range of plausible, spatially...... in actual spend and over 40% of variation in necessary spend. Population pressure is a variable that has not been used to model protected area management costs before, yet proved to be considerably better at predicting both actual and necessary spend than other measures of anthropogenic pressure. We use our...

  1. State-Level Estimates of Cancer-Related Absenteeism Costs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tangka, Florence K.; Trogdon, Justin G.; Nwaise, Isaac; Ekwueme, Donatus U.; Guy, Gery P.; Orenstein, Diane

    2016-01-01

    Background Cancer is one of the top five most costly diseases in the United States and leads to substantial work loss. Nevertheless, limited state-level estimates of cancer absenteeism costs have been published. Methods In analyses of data from the 2004–2008 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, the 2004 National Nursing Home Survey, the U.S. Census Bureau for 2008, and the 2009 Current Population Survey, we used regression modeling to estimate annual state-level absenteeism costs attributable to cancer from 2004 to 2008. Results We estimated that the state-level median number of days of absenteeism per year among employed cancer patients was 6.1 days and that annual state-level cancer absenteeism costs ranged from $14.9 million to $915.9 million (median = $115.9 million) across states in 2010 dollars. Absenteeism costs are approximately 6.5% of the costs of premature cancer mortality. Conclusions The results from this study suggest that lost productivity attributable to cancer is a substantial cost to employees and employers and contributes to estimates of the overall impact of cancer in a state population. PMID:23969498

  2. Estimating the Cost of Providing Foundational Public Health Services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mamaril, Cezar Brian C; Mays, Glen P; Branham, Douglas Keith; Bekemeier, Betty; Marlowe, Justin; Timsina, Lava

    2017-12-28

    To estimate the cost of resources required to implement a set of Foundational Public Health Services (FPHS) as recommended by the Institute of Medicine. A stochastic simulation model was used to generate probability distributions of input and output costs across 11 FPHS domains. We used an implementation attainment scale to estimate costs of fully implementing FPHS. We use data collected from a diverse cohort of 19 public health agencies located in three states that implemented the FPHS cost estimation methodology in their agencies during 2014-2015. The average agency incurred costs of $48 per capita implementing FPHS at their current attainment levels with a coefficient of variation (CV) of 16 percent. Achieving full FPHS implementation would require $82 per capita (CV=19 percent), indicating an estimated resource gap of $34 per capita. Substantial variation in costs exists across communities in resources currently devoted to implementing FPHS, with even larger variation in resources needed for full attainment. Reducing geographic inequities in FPHS may require novel financing mechanisms and delivery models that allow health agencies to have robust roles within the health system and realize a minimum package of public health services for the nation. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

  3. Proposed reliability cost model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delionback, L. M.

    1973-01-01

    The research investigations which were involved in the study include: cost analysis/allocation, reliability and product assurance, forecasting methodology, systems analysis, and model-building. This is a classic example of an interdisciplinary problem, since the model-building requirements include the need for understanding and communication between technical disciplines on one hand, and the financial/accounting skill categories on the other. The systems approach is utilized within this context to establish a clearer and more objective relationship between reliability assurance and the subcategories (or subelements) that provide, or reenforce, the reliability assurance for a system. Subcategories are further subdivided as illustrated by a tree diagram. The reliability assurance elements can be seen to be potential alternative strategies, or approaches, depending on the specific goals/objectives of the trade studies. The scope was limited to the establishment of a proposed reliability cost-model format. The model format/approach is dependent upon the use of a series of subsystem-oriented CER's and sometimes possible CTR's, in devising a suitable cost-effective policy.

  4. Qualitative and quantitative cost estimation : a methodology analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aram, S.; Eastman, C.; Beetz, J.; Issa, R.; Flood, I.

    2014-01-01

    This paper reports on the first part of ongoing research with the goal of designing a framework and a knowledge-based system for 3D parametric model-based quantity take-off and cost estimation in the Architecture, Engineering and Construction (AEC) industry. The authors have studied and analyzed

  5. Methods for cost estimation in software project management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briciu, C. V.; Filip, I.; Indries, I. I.

    2016-02-01

    The speed in which the processes used in software development field have changed makes it very difficult the task of forecasting the overall costs for a software project. By many researchers, this task has been considered unachievable, but there is a group of scientist for which this task can be solved using the already known mathematical methods (e.g. multiple linear regressions) and the new techniques as genetic programming and neural networks. The paper presents a solution for building a model for the cost estimation models in the software project management using genetic algorithms starting from the PROMISE datasets related COCOMO 81 model. In the first part of the paper, a summary of the major achievements in the research area of finding a model for estimating the overall project costs is presented together with the description of the existing software development process models. In the last part, a basic proposal of a mathematical model of a genetic programming is proposed including here the description of the chosen fitness function and chromosome representation. The perspective of model described it linked with the current reality of the software development considering as basis the software product life cycle and the current challenges and innovations in the software development area. Based on the author's experiences and the analysis of the existing models and product lifecycle it was concluded that estimation models should be adapted with the new technologies and emerging systems and they depend largely by the chosen software development method.

  6. Development of Cost Estimation Methodology of Decommissioning for PWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Sang Il; Yoo, Yeon Jae; Lim, Yong Kyu; Chang, Hyeon Sik; Song, Geun Ho

    2013-01-01

    The permanent closure of nuclear power plant should be conducted with the strict laws and the profound planning including the cost and schedule estimation because the plant is very contaminated with the radioactivity. In Korea, there are two types of the nuclear power plant. One is the pressurized light water reactor (PWR) and the other is the pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR) called as CANDU reactor. Also, the 50% of the operating nuclear power plant in Korea is the PWRs which were originally designed by CE (Combustion Engineering). There have been experiences about the decommissioning of Westinghouse type PWR, but are few experiences on that of CE type PWR. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to develop the cost estimation methodology and evaluate technical level of decommissioning for the application to CE type PWR based on the system engineering technology. The aim of present study is to develop the cost estimation methodology of decommissioning for application to PWR. Through the study, the following conclusions are obtained: · Based on the system engineering, the decommissioning work can be classified as Set, Subset, Task, Subtask and Work cost units. · The Set and Task structure are grouped as 29 Sets and 15 Task s, respectively. · The final result shows the cost and project schedule for the project control and risk management. · The present results are preliminary and should be refined and improved based on the modeling and cost data reflecting available technology and current costs like labor and waste data

  7. Methodology used in IRSN nuclear accident cost estimates in France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2015-01-01

    This report describes the methodology used by IRSN to estimate the cost of potential nuclear accidents in France. It concerns possible accidents involving pressurized water reactors leading to radioactive releases in the environment. These accidents have been grouped in two accident families called: severe accidents and major accidents. Two model scenarios have been selected to represent each of these families. The report discusses the general methodology of nuclear accident cost estimation. The crucial point is that all cost should be considered: if not, the cost is underestimated which can lead to negative consequences for the value attributed to safety and for crisis preparation. As a result, the overall cost comprises many components: the most well-known is offsite radiological costs, but there are many others. The proposed estimates have thus required using a diversity of methods which are described in this report. Figures are presented at the end of this report. Among other things, they show that purely radiological costs only represent a non-dominant part of foreseeable economic consequences. (authors)

  8. Valuing productivity costs in a changing macroeconomic environment: the estimation of colorectal cancer productivity costs using the friction cost approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanly, Paul; Koopmanschap, Marc; Sharp, Linda

    2016-06-01

    The friction cost approach (FCA) has been proposed as an alternative to the human capital approach for productivity cost valuation. However, FCA estimates are context dependent and influenced by extant macroeconomic conditions. We applied the FCA to estimate colorectal cancer labor productivity costs and assessed the impact of a changing macroeconomic environment on these estimates. Data from colorectal cancer survivors (n = 159) derived from a postal survey undertaken in Ireland March 2010 to January 2011 were combined with national wage data, population-level survival data, and occupation-specific friction periods to calculate temporary and permanent disability, and premature mortality costs using the FCA. The effects of changing labor market conditions between 2006 and 2013 on the friction period were modeled in scenario analyses. Costs were valued in 2008 euros. In the base-case, the total FCA per-person productivity cost for incident colorectal cancer patients of working age at diagnosis was €8543. In scenario 1 (a 2.2 % increase in unemployment), the fall in the friction period caused total productivity costs to decrease by up to 18 % compared to base-case estimates. In scenario 2 (a 9.2 % increase in unemployment), the largest decrease in productivity cost was up to 65 %. Adjusting for the vacancy rate reduced the effect of unemployment on the cost results. The friction period used in calculating labor productivity costs greatly affects the derived estimates; this friction period requires reassessment following changes in labor market conditions. The influence of changes in macroeconomic conditions on FCA-derived cost estimates may be substantial.

  9. Estimated generic prices of cancer medicines deemed cost-ineffective in England: a cost estimation analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Andrew; Redd, Christopher; Gotham, Dzintars; Erbacher, Isabelle; Meldrum, Jonathan; Harada, Ryo

    2017-01-20

    The aim of this study was to estimate lowest possible treatment costs for four novel cancer drugs, hypothesising that generic manufacturing could significantly reduce treatment costs. This research was carried out in a non-clinical research setting using secondary data. There were no human participants in the study. Four drugs were selected for the study: bortezomib, dasatinib, everolimus and gefitinib. These medications were selected according to their clinical importance, novel pharmaceutical actions and the availability of generic price data. Target costs for treatment were to be generated for each indication for each treatment. The primary outcome measure was the target cost according to a production cost calculation algorithm. The secondary outcome measure was the target cost as the lowest available generic price; this was necessary where export data were not available to generate an estimate from our cost calculation algorithm. Other outcomes included patent expiry dates and total eligible treatment populations. Target prices were £411 per cycle for bortezomib, £9 per month for dasatinib, £852 per month for everolimus and £10 per month for gefitinib. Compared with current list prices in England, these target prices would represent reductions of 74-99.6%. Patent expiry dates were bortezomib 2014-22, dasatinib 2020-26, everolimus 2019-25 and gefitinib 2017. The total global eligible treatment population in 1 year is 769 736. Our findings demonstrate that affordable drug treatment costs are possible for novel cancer drugs, suggesting that new therapeutic options can be made available to patients and doctors worldwide. Assessing treatment cost estimations alongside cost-effectiveness evaluations is an important area of future research. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  10. Estimating Instantaneous Energetic Cost During Gait Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-08-31

    energetic cost. Its 327   accuracy benefits from a personalized model for each subject, but for some situations, it may suffice to 328   use the...Activity 380   Patterns During Robotic - and Therapist-Assisted Treadmill Walking in Individuals With 381   Incomplete Spinal Cord Injury. Phys Ther 86...of level walking with powered ankle 410   exoskeletons . Journal of Experimental Biology 211: 1402–1413, 2008. 411   25. Schmalz T, Blumentritt S

  11. Hydropower Baseline Cost Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O' Connor, Patrick W. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Zhang, Qin Fen [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); DeNeale, Scott T. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Chalise, Dol Raj [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Centurion, Emma E. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2015-01-01

    Recent resource assessments conducted by the United States Department of Energy have identified significant opportunities for expanding hydropower generation through the addition of power to non-powered dams and on undeveloped stream-reaches. Additional interest exists in the powering of existing water resource infrastructure such as conduits and canals, upgrading and expanding existing hydropower facilities, and the construction new pumped storage hydropower. Understanding the potential future role of these hydropower resources in the nation’s energy system requires an assessment of the environmental and techno-economic issues associated with expanding hydropower generation. To facilitate these assessments, this report seeks to fill the current gaps in publically available hydropower cost-estimating tools that can support the national-scale evaluation of hydropower resources.

  12. Parametric Cost Models for Space Telescopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahl, H. Philip; Henrichs, Todd; Dollinger, Courtney

    2010-01-01

    Multivariable parametric cost models for space telescopes provide several benefits to designers and space system project managers. They identify major architectural cost drivers and allow high-level design trades. They enable cost-benefit analysis for technology development investment. And, they provide a basis for estimating total project cost. A survey of historical models found that there is no definitive space telescope cost model. In fact, published models vary greatly [1]. Thus, there is a need for parametric space telescopes cost models. An effort is underway to develop single variable [2] and multi-variable [3] parametric space telescope cost models based on the latest available data and applying rigorous analytical techniques. Specific cost estimating relationships (CERs) have been developed which show that aperture diameter is the primary cost driver for large space telescopes; technology development as a function of time reduces cost at the rate of 50% per 17 years; it costs less per square meter of collecting aperture to build a large telescope than a small telescope; and increasing mass reduces cost.

  13. Parametric cost models for space telescopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahl, H. Philip; Henrichs, Todd; Dollinger, Courtnay

    2017-11-01

    Multivariable parametric cost models for space telescopes provide several benefits to designers and space system project managers. They identify major architectural cost drivers and allow high-level design trades. They enable cost-benefit analysis for technology development investment. And, they provide a basis for estimating total project cost. A survey of historical models found that there is no definitive space telescope cost model. In fact, published models vary greatly [1]. Thus, there is a need for parametric space telescopes cost models. An effort is underway to develop single variable [2] and multi-variable [3] parametric space telescope cost models based on the latest available data and applying rigorous analytical techniques. Specific cost estimating relationships (CERs) have been developed which show that aperture diameter is the primary cost driver for large space telescopes; technology development as a function of time reduces cost at the rate of 50% per 17 years; it costs less per square meter of collecting aperture to build a large telescope than a small telescope; and increasing mass reduces cost.

  14. Estimated Cost to a Restaurant of a Foodborne Illness Outbreak.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartsch, Sarah M; Asti, Lindsey; Nyathi, Sindiso; Spiker, Marie L; Lee, Bruce Y

    Although outbreaks of restaurant-associated foodborne illness occur periodically and make the news, a restaurant may not be aware of the cost of an outbreak. We estimated this cost under varying circumstances. We developed a computational simulation model; scenarios varied outbreak size (5 to 250 people affected), pathogen (n = 15), type of dining establishment (fast food, fast casual, casual dining, and fine dining), lost revenue (ie, meals lost per illness), cost of lawsuits and legal fees, fines, and insurance premium increases. We estimated that the cost of a single foodborne illness outbreak ranged from $3968 to $1.9 million for a fast-food restaurant, $6330 to $2.1 million for a fast-casual restaurant, $8030 to $2.2 million for a casual-dining restaurant, and $8273 to $2.6 million for a fine-dining restaurant, varying from a 5-person outbreak, with no lost revenue, lawsuits, legal fees, or fines, to a 250-person outbreak, with high lost revenue (100 meals lost per illness), and a high amount of lawsuits and legal fees ($1 656 569) and fines ($100 000). This cost amounts to 10% to 5790% of a restaurant's annual marketing costs and 0.3% to 101% of annual profits and revenue. The biggest cost drivers were lawsuits and legal fees, outbreak size, and lost revenue. Pathogen type affected the cost by a maximum of $337 000, the difference between a Bacillus cereus outbreak (least costly) and a listeria outbreak (most costly). The cost of a single foodborne illness outbreak to a restaurant can be substantial and outweigh the typical costs of prevention and control measures. Our study can help decision makers determine investment and motivate research for infection-control measures in restaurant settings.

  15. Integrated modeling of software cost and quality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rone, K.Y.; Olson, K.M.

    1994-01-01

    In modeling the cost and quality of software systems, the relationship between cost and quality must be considered. This explicit relationship is dictated by the criticality of the software being developed. The balance between cost and quality is a viable software engineering trade-off throughout the life cycle. Therefore, the ability to accurately estimate the cost and quality of software systems is essential to providing reliable software on time and within budget. Software cost models relate the product error rate to the percent of the project labor that is required for independent verification and validation. The criticality of the software determines which cost model is used to estimate the labor required to develop the software. Software quality models yield an expected error discovery rate based on the software size, criticality, software development environment, and the level of competence of the project and the developers with respect to the processes being employed

  16. Estimated Annual Maintenance Costs for Educational Facilities in Eritrea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vagnby, Bo Hellisen

    Global estimated annual costs for undertaking basic maintenance of all educational facilities in Eritrea.......Global estimated annual costs for undertaking basic maintenance of all educational facilities in Eritrea....

  17. Development of a simple estimation tool for LMFBR construction cost

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshida, Kazuo; Kinoshita, Izumi

    1999-01-01

    A simple tool for estimating the construction costs of liquid-metal-cooled fast breeder reactors (LMFBRs), 'Simple Cost' was developed in this study. Simple Cost is based on a new estimation formula that can reduce the amount of design data required to estimate construction costs. Consequently, Simple cost can be used to estimate the construction costs of innovative LMFBR concepts for which detailed design has not been carried out. The results of test calculation show that Simple Cost provides cost estimations equivalent to those obtained with conventional methods within the range of plant power from 325 to 1500 MWe. Sensitivity analyses for typical design parameters were conducted using Simple Cost. The effects of four major parameters - reactor vessel diameter, core outlet temperature, sodium handling area and number of secondary loops - on the construction costs of LMFBRs were evaluated quantitatively. The results show that the reduction of sodium handling area is particularly effective in reducing construction costs. (author)

  18. Cost estimates supporting West Valley DEIS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pirro, J.

    1981-01-01

    An Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) is being prepared which considers alternate means for solidifying the high level liquid wastes (HLLW) at the Western New York Nuclear Service Center (WNYNSC). For this purpose three basic scenarios were considered. In the first scenario, the HLLW is converted into terminal waste form of borosilicate glass. Before vitrification, the non-radioactive chemical salts are separated from the radioactive and transuranic (TRU) constituents in the HLLW. In the second scenario, the HLLW is converted into an intermediate form-fused salt. The stored HLLW is dewatered and melted and the solids are transported to a Department of Energy (DOE) site. The fused salt will be processed of the DOE site at a later date where it will be converted to a vitrified form in a facility that will be constructed to treat HLLW stored at that site. The vitrified salt will be eventually removed for permanent disposal at a Federal repository. In the third scenario, the HLLW is solidified in the existing HLLW storage tanks with cement and returned for on-site disposal in the existing tanks or additional tanks as needed to accommodate the volume. To support the EIS, the costs to accomplish each of the alternatives is provided. The purpose of this cost estimate is to provide a common basis to evaluate the expenditures required to immobilize the HLLW presently stored at the WNYNSC

  19. ICPP tank farm closure study. Volume III: Cost estimates, planning schedules, yearly cost flowcharts, and life-cycle cost estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-02-01

    This volume contains information on cost estimates, planning schedules, yearly cost flowcharts, and life-cycle costs for the six options described in Volume 1, Section 2: Option 1 -- Total removal clean closure; No subsequent use; Option 2 -- Risk-based clean closure; LLW fill; Option 3 -- Risk-based clean closure; CERCLA fill; Option 4 -- Close to RCRA landfill standards; LLW fill; Option 5 -- Close to RCRA landfill standards; CERCLA fill; and Option 6 -- Close to RCRA landfill standards; Clean fill. This volume is divided into two portions. The first portion contains the cost and planning schedule estimates while the second portion contains life-cycle costs and yearly cash flow information for each option

  20. Increased accuracy of cost-estimation using product configuration systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Jeppe Bredahl; Hvam, Lars; Mortensen, Niels Henrik

    This article describes an approach for utilizing Product Configuration Systems (PCS) for quantifying project costs in project-based companies. It presents a case study demonstrating a method of quantifying costs in a way that makes it possible to configure cost- and time estimates. Piecework costs......, material costs and sub-supplier costs are used as principle cost elements and linked to structural and process elements to facilitate configuration. The cost data are used by the PCS to generate fast and accurate cost-estimates, quotations, time estimates and cost summaries. The described cost...... quantification principles have been used in a Scandinavian SME (Small and Medium-sized Enterprise) since the 90’s, but have since 2011 been adopted to be used in a configuration system. A longitudinal case study was conducted to compare cost and time-estimation accuracy before and after implementation. We...

  1. Cost estimation and management over the life cycle of metallurgical ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study investigates whether all expected costs over the life cycle of metallurgical research projects are included in initial, normal and fi nal cost estimates, and whether these costs are managed throughout a project's life cycle since there is not enough emphasis on the accurate estimation of costs and their management ...

  2. 28 CFR 100.16 - Cost estimate submission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ..., quantity, and cost. (ii) Direct labor. Provide a time-phased (e.g., monthly, quarterly) breakdown of labor... estimates. (iii) Allocable direct costs. Indicate how allocable costs are computed and applied, including... 28 Judicial Administration 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Cost estimate submission. 100.16 Section...

  3. The Launch Systems Operations Cost Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prince, Frank A.; Hamaker, Joseph W. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    One of NASA's primary missions is to reduce the cost of access to space while simultaneously increasing safety. A key component, and one of the least understood, is the recurring operations and support cost for reusable launch systems. In order to predict these costs, NASA, under the leadership of the Independent Program Assessment Office (IPAO), has commissioned the development of a Launch Systems Operations Cost Model (LSOCM). LSOCM is a tool to predict the operations & support (O&S) cost of new and modified reusable (and partially reusable) launch systems. The requirements are to predict the non-recurring cost for the ground infrastructure and the recurring cost of maintaining that infrastructure, performing vehicle logistics, and performing the O&S actions to return the vehicle to flight. In addition, the model must estimate the time required to cycle the vehicle through all of the ground processing activities. The current version of LSOCM is an amalgamation of existing tools, leveraging our understanding of shuttle operations cost with a means of predicting how the maintenance burden will change as the vehicle becomes more aircraft like. The use of the Conceptual Operations Manpower Estimating Tool/Operations Cost Model (COMET/OCM) provides a solid point of departure based on shuttle and expendable launch vehicle (ELV) experience. The incorporation of the Reliability and Maintainability Analysis Tool (RMAT) as expressed by a set of response surface model equations gives a method for estimating how changing launch system characteristics affects cost and cycle time as compared to today's shuttle system. Plans are being made to improve the model. The development team will be spending the next few months devising a structured methodology that will enable verified and validated algorithms to give accurate cost estimates. To assist in this endeavor the LSOCM team is part of an Agency wide effort to combine resources with other cost and operations professionals to

  4. Estimated annual cost of arterial hypertension treatment in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dib, Murilo W; Riera, Rachel; Ferraz, Marcos B

    2010-02-01

    To estimate the direct annual cost of systemic arterial hypertension (SAH) treatment in Brazil's public and private health care systems, assess its economic impact on the total health care budget, and determine its proportion of the 2005 gross domestic product (GDP). A decision tree model was used to determine direct costs based on estimated use of various resources in SAH diagnosis and care, including treatment (medication and non-medication), complementary exams, doctor visits, nutritional assessments, and emergency room visits. Estimated direct annual cost of SAH treatment was approximately US$ 398.9 million for the public health care system and US$ 272.7 million for the private system, representing 0.08% of the 2005 GDP (ranging from 0.05% to 0.16%). With total health care expenses comprising about 7.6% of Brazil's GDP, this cost represented 1.11% of overall health care costs (0.62% to 2.06%)-1.43% of total expenses for the Unified Healthcare System (Sistema Unico de Saúde, SUS) (0.79% to 2.75%) and 0.83% of expenses for the private health care system (0.47% to 1.48%). Conclusion. To guarantee public or private health care based on the principles of universality and equality, with limited available resources, efforts must be focused on educating the population on prevention and treatment compliance in diseases such as SAH that require significant health resources.

  5. Estimating pressurized water reactor decommissioning costs: A user's manual for the PWR Cost Estimating Computer Program (CECP) software

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bierschbach, M.C.; Mencinsky, G.J.

    1993-10-01

    With the issuance of the Decommissioning Rule (July 27, 1988), nuclear power plant licensees are required to submit to the US Regulatory Commission (NRC) for review, decommissioning plans and cost estimates. This user's manual and the accompanying Cost Estimating Computer Program (CECP) software provide a cost-calculating methodology to the NRC staff that will assist them in assessing the adequacy of the licensee submittals. The CECP, designed to be used on a personnel computer, provides estimates for the cost of decommissioning PWR plant stations to the point of license termination. Such cost estimates include component, piping, and equipment removal costs; packaging costs; decontamination costs; transportation costs; burial costs; and manpower costs. In addition to costs, the CECP also calculates burial volumes, person-hours, crew-hours, and exposure person-hours associated with decommissioning

  6. Analysis and modeling of rail maintenance costs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amir Ali Bakhshi

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Railroad maintenance engineering plays an important role on availability of roads and reducing the cost of railroad incidents. Rail is of the most important parts of railroad industry, which needs regular maintenance since it covers a significant part of total maintenance cost. Any attempt on optimizing total cost of maintenance could substantially reduce the cost of railroad system and it can reduce total cost of the industry. The paper presents a new method to estimate the cost of rail failure using different cost components such as cost of inspection and cost of risk associated with possible accidents. The proposed model of this paper is used for a real-world case study of railroad transportation of Tehran region and the results have been analyzed.

  7. Calculating the Unit Cost Factors for Decommissioning Cost Estimation of the Nuclear Research Reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, Kwan Seong; Lee, Dong Gyu; Jung, Chong Hun; Lee, Kune Woo

    2006-01-01

    The estimated decommissioning cost of nuclear research reactor is calculated by applying a unit cost factor-based engineering cost calculation method on which classification of decommissioning works fitted with the features and specifications of decommissioning objects and establishment of composition factors are based. Decommissioning cost of nuclear research reactor is composed of labor cost, equipment and materials cost. Labor cost of decommissioning costs in decommissioning works are calculated on the basis of working time consumed in decommissioning objects. In this paper, the unit cost factors and work difficulty factors which are needed to calculate the labor cost in estimating decommissioning cost of nuclear research reactor are derived and figured out.

  8. Power plant cost estimates put to the test

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowley, J.H.

    1978-01-01

    The growth in standards for nuclear applications and the impact of these codes and standards on the cost of nuclear power plants is described. The preparation of cost estimates and reasons for apparent discrepancies are discussed. Consistent estimates of nuclear power plant costs have been prepared in the USA for over a decade. They show that the difference in capital costs between nuclear and coal fired plants is narrowing and that when total generating costs are calculated nuclear power is substantially cheaper. (UK)

  9. Models of Community-Based Hepatitis B Surface Antigen Screening Programs in the U.S. and Their Estimated Outcomes and Costs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rein, David B.; Lesesne, Sarah B.; Smith, Bryce D.; Weinbaum, Cindy M.

    2011-01-01

    Objectives Information on the process and method of service delivery is sparse for hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) testing, and no systematic study has evaluated the relative effectiveness or cost-effectiveness of different HBsAg screening models. To address this need, we compared five specific community-based screening programs. Methods We funded five HBsAg screening programs to collect information on their design, costs, and outcomes of participants during a six-month observation period. We categorized programs into four types of models. For each model, we calculated the number screened, the number screened as per Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommendations, and the cost per screening. Results The models varied by cost per person screened and total number of people screened, but they did not differ meaningfully in the proportion of people screened following CDC recommendations, the proportion of those screened who tested positive, or the proportion of those who newly tested positive. Conclusions Integrating screening into outpatient service settings is the most cost-effective method but may not reach all people needing to be screened. Future research should examine cost-effective methods that expand the reach of screening into communities in outpatient settings. PMID:21800750

  10. Cross Service Fixed-Wing Cost Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-05-17

    costing aircraft , such as cost per system or cost per Air Force unit. There are differing opinions on how costs should be determined for aircraft . A 2010...large confidence interval , but this is most likely because of the addition of the B-2 Bomber, 15 Figure 8. CPFH Trends of Various Aircraft a very... Maintenance O&S Operating and Support OSD Office of the Secretary of Defense PAI Primary Aircraft Inventory POL Petroleum, Lubricants, and Oil SME

  11. Development of LLW and VLLW disposal business cost estimation system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koibuchi, Hiroko; Ishiguro, Hideharu; Matsuda, Kenji

    2004-01-01

    In order to undertake the LLW and VLLW disposal business, various examinations are carried out in RANDEC. Since it is important in undertaking this business to secure funds, a disposal cost must be calculated by way of trial. However, at present, there are many unknown factors such as the amount of wastes, a disposal schedule, the location of a disposal site, and so on, and the cost cannot be determined. Meanwhile, the cost depends on complicated relations among these factors. Then, a 'LLW and VLLW disposal business cost estimation system' has been developed to calculate the disposal cost easily. This system can calculate an annual balance of payments by using a construction and operation cost of disposal facilities, considering economic parameters of tax, inflation rate, interest rate and so on. And the system can calculate internal reserves to assign to next-stage upkeep of the disposal facilities after the disposal operation. A model of disposal site was designed based on assumption of some preconditions and a study was carried out to make a trial calculation by using the system. Moreover, it will be required to reduce construction cost by rationalizing the facility and to make flat an annual business spending by examining the business schedule. (author)

  12. Cost Modeling for Space Telescope

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahl, H. Philip

    2011-01-01

    Parametric cost models are an important tool for planning missions, compare concepts and justify technology investments. This paper presents on-going efforts to develop single variable and multi-variable cost models for space telescope optical telescope assembly (OTA). These models are based on data collected from historical space telescope missions. Standard statistical methods are used to derive CERs for OTA cost versus aperture diameter and mass. The results are compared with previously published models.

  13. IDC reengineering Phase 2 & 3 US industry standard cost estimate summary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harris, James M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Huelskamp, Robert M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-01-01

    Sandia National Laboratories has prepared a ROM cost estimate for budgetary planning for the IDC Reengineering Phase 2 & 3 effort, using a commercial software cost estimation tool calibrated to US industry performance parameters. This is not a cost estimate for Sandia to perform the project. This report provides the ROM cost estimate and describes the methodology, assumptions, and cost model details used to create the ROM cost estimate. ROM Cost Estimate Disclaimer Contained herein is a Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) cost estimate that has been provided to enable initial planning for this proposed project. This ROM cost estimate is submitted to facilitate informal discussions in relation to this project and is NOT intended to commit Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) or its resources. Furthermore, as a Federally Funded Research and Development Center (FFRDC), Sandia must be compliant with the Anti-Deficiency Act and operate on a full-cost recovery basis. Therefore, while Sandia, in conjunction with the Sponsor, will use best judgment to execute work and to address the highest risks and most important issues in order to effectively manage within cost constraints, this ROM estimate and any subsequent approved cost estimates are on a 'full-cost recovery' basis. Thus, work can neither commence nor continue unless adequate funding has been accepted and certified by DOE.

  14. Estimation of cellular manufacturing cost components using simulation and activity-based costing

    OpenAIRE

    Paul Savory; Robert Williams

    2010-01-01

    It can be difficult estimating all of the cost components that are attributed to a machined part.  This problem is more pronounced when a factory uses group technology manufacturing cells as opposed to a functional or process layout of a job shop.  This paper describes how activity-based costing (ABC) concepts can be integrated into a discrete-event simulation model of a U-shaped manufacturing cell producing a part family with four members.  The simulation model generates detai...

  15. Estimation of cellular manufacturing cost components using simulation and activity-based costing

    OpenAIRE

    Savory, Paul

    2010-01-01

    It can be difficult estimating all of the cost components that are attributed to a machined part. This problem is more pronounced when a factory uses group technology manufacturing cells as opposed to a functional or process layout of a job shop. This paper describes how activity-based costing (ABC) concepts can be integrated into a discrete-event simulation model of a U-shaped manufacturing cell producing a part family with four members. The simulation model generates detailed Bills of Ac...

  16. Lifetime costs of lung transplantation : Estimation of incremental costs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    VanEnckevort, PJ; Koopmanschap, MA; Tenvergert, EM; VanderBij, W; Rutten, FFH

    1997-01-01

    Despite an expanding number of centres which provide lung transplantation, information about the incremental costs of lung transplantation is scarce. From 1991 until 1995, in The Netherlands a technology assessment was performed which provided information about the incremental costs of lung

  17. 874 CONSTRUCTION COST MODELS FOR HIGHRISE OFFICE ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    USER

    2015-10-28

    Oct 28, 2015 ... will not only reduce the stress on estimators but also enhance the accuracy of cost estimates. The resulting 11 ... cost estimating process to work together to ..... construction estimators in Hong. Kong. Construction Management.

  18. Cost model validation: a technical and cultural approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hihn, J.; Rosenberg, L.; Roust, K.; Warfield, K.

    2001-01-01

    This paper summarizes how JPL's parametric mission cost model (PMCM) has been validated using both formal statistical methods and a variety of peer and management reviews in order to establish organizational acceptance of the cost model estimates.

  19. Cost analysis of small hydroelectric power plants components and preliminary estimation of global cost

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Basta, C.; Olive, W.J.; Antunes, J.S.

    1990-01-01

    An analysis of cost for each components of Small Hydroelectric Power Plant, taking into account the real costs of these projects is shown. It also presents a global equation which allows a preliminary estimation of cost for each construction. (author)

  20. [Hospital costs estimation by micro and gross-costing approaches].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guerre, P; Hayes, N; Bertaux, A-C

    2018-03-01

    Cost analysis has become increasingly commonplace in healthcare facilities in recent years. Regardless of the aim, the first consideration for a hospital costing process is to determine the point of view, or perspective, to adopt. Should the cost figures reflect the healthcare facility's point of view or enlighten perspectives for the public health insurance system? Another consideration is in regard to the method to adopt, as there are several. The two most widely used methods to determine the costs of hospital treatments in France are the micro-costing method and the gross-costing method. The aims of this work are: (1) to describe each of these methods (e.g. data collection, assignment of monetary value to resource consumption) with their advantages and shortcomings as they relate to the difficulties encountered with their implementation in hospitals; (2) to present a review of the literature comparing the two methods and their possible combination; and (3) to propose ways to address the questions that need to be asked before compiling resource consumption data and assigning monetary value to hospital costs. A final diagram summarizes methodologies to be preferred according to the evaluation strategy and the impact on patient care. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  1. Access Based Cost Estimation for Beddown Analysis

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Pennington, Jasper E

    2006-01-01

    The purpose of this research is to develop an automated web-enabled beddown estimation application for Air Mobility Command in order to increase the effectiveness and enhance the robustness of beddown estimates...

  2. Estimating the costs of AECB regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1981-04-01

    A comprehensive analysis of the costs to the Canadian nuclear industry of the present Atomic Energy Control Board regulatory activities was carried out to provide a framework for a socio-economic impact analysis of AECB regulations. Regulaory costs in uranium mining and milling, fuel fabrication, power generation, the nuclear fuel cycle as a whole, and radioisotope use are studied. The cost of safety measures which industry would still undertake in the absence of government regulations ('prudent operator' costs) are not included. (L.L.)

  3. Addressing Uncertainties in Cost Estimates for Decommissioning Nuclear Facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benjamin, Serge; Descures, Sylvain; Du Pasquier, Louis; Francois, Patrice; Buonarotti, Stefano; Mariotti, Giovanni; Tarakonov, Jurij; Daniska, Vladimir; Bergh, Niklas; Carroll, Simon; AaSTRoeM, Annika; Cato, Anna; De La Gardie, Fredrik; Haenggi, Hannes; Rodriguez, Jose; Laird, Alastair; Ridpath, Andy; La Guardia, Thomas; O'Sullivan, Patrick; ); Weber, Inge; )

    2017-01-01

    The cost estimation process of decommissioning nuclear facilities has continued to evolve in recent years, with a general trend towards demonstrating greater levels of detail in the estimate and more explicit consideration of uncertainties, the latter of which may have an impact on decommissioning project costs. The 2012 report on the International Structure for Decommissioning Costing (ISDC) of Nuclear Installations, a joint recommendation by the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA), the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the European Commission, proposes a standardised structure of cost items for decommissioning projects that can be used either directly for the production of cost estimates or for mapping of cost items for benchmarking purposes. The ISDC, however, provides only limited guidance on the treatment of uncertainty when preparing cost estimates. Addressing Uncertainties in Cost Estimates for Decommissioning Nuclear Facilities, prepared jointly by the NEA and IAEA, is intended to complement the ISDC, assisting cost estimators and reviewers in systematically addressing uncertainties in decommissioning cost estimates. Based on experiences gained in participating countries and projects, the report describes how uncertainty and risks can be analysed and incorporated in decommissioning cost estimates, while presenting the outcomes in a transparent manner

  4. Aircraft bi-level life cycle cost estimation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhao, X.; Verhagen, W.J.C.; Curan, R.

    2015-01-01

    n an integrated aircraft design and analysis practice, Life Cycle Cost (LCC) is essential for decision making. The LCC of an aircraft is ordinarily partially estimated by emphasizing a specific cost type. However, an overview of the LCC including design and development cost, production cost,

  5. Implementation of the ANNs ensembles in macro-BIM cost estimates of buildings' floor structural frames

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juszczyk, Michał

    2018-04-01

    This paper reports some results of the studies on the use of artificial intelligence tools for the purposes of cost estimation based on building information models. A problem of the cost estimates based on the building information models on a macro level supported by the ensembles of artificial neural networks is concisely discussed. In the course of the research a regression model has been built for the purposes of cost estimation of buildings' floor structural frames, as higher level elements. Building information models are supposed to serve as a repository of data used for the purposes of cost estimation. The core of the model is the ensemble of neural networks. The developed model allows the prediction of cost estimates with satisfactory accuracy.

  6. Estimating the costs of AECB regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1980-05-01

    An attempt is made to answer questions relating to the feasibility of determining costs imposed by regulatory activities of the Atomic Energy Control Board, and to provide a conceptual and methodological framework for an actual cost study of existing AECB requirments. (L.L.)

  7. Cost estimation for solid waste management in industrialising regions – Precedents, problems and prospects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parthan, Shantha R.; Milke, Mark W.; Wilson, David C.; Cocks, John H.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► We review cost estimation approaches for solid waste management. ► Unit cost method and benchmarking techniques used in industrialising regions (IR). ► Variety in scope, quality and stakeholders makes cost estimation challenging in IR. ► Integrate waste flow and cost models using cost functions to improve cost planning. - Abstract: The importance of cost planning for solid waste management (SWM) in industrialising regions (IR) is not well recognised. The approaches used to estimate costs of SWM can broadly be classified into three categories – the unit cost method, benchmarking techniques and developing cost models using sub-approaches such as cost and production function analysis. These methods have been developed into computer programmes with varying functionality and utility. IR mostly use the unit cost and benchmarking approach to estimate their SWM costs. The models for cost estimation, on the other hand, are used at times in industrialised countries, but not in IR. Taken together, these approaches could be viewed as precedents that can be modified appropriately to suit waste management systems in IR. The main challenges (or problems) one might face while attempting to do so are a lack of cost data, and a lack of quality for what data do exist. There are practical benefits to planners in IR where solid waste problems are critical and budgets are limited.

  8. Estimating costs in the economic evaluation of medical technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luce, B R; Elixhauser, A

    1990-01-01

    The complexities and nuances of evaluating the costs associated with providing medical technologies are often underestimated by analysts engaged in economic evaluations. This article describes the theoretical underpinnings of cost estimation, emphasizing the importance of accounting for opportunity costs and marginal costs. The various types of costs that should be considered in an analysis are described; a listing of specific cost elements may provide a helpful guide to analysis. The process of identifying and estimating costs is detailed, and practical recommendations for handling the challenges of cost estimation are provided. The roles of sensitivity analysis and discounting are characterized, as are determinants of the types of costs to include in an analysis. Finally, common problems facing the analyst are enumerated with suggestions for managing these problems.

  9. Cost estimating relationships for nuclear power plant operationa and maintenance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bowers, H.I.; Fuller, L.C.; Myers, M.L.

    1987-11-01

    Revised cost estimating relationships for 1987 are presented for estimating annual nonfuel operation and maintenance (O and M) costs for light-water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants, which update guidelines published previously in 1982. The purpose of these cost estimating relationships is for use in long range planning and evaluations of the economics of nuclear energy for electric power generation. A listing of a computer program, LWROM, implementing the cost estimating relationships and written in advanced BASIC for IBM personal computers, is included

  10. Modeling Operations Costs for Human Exploration Architectures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shishko, Robert

    2013-01-01

    Operations and support (O&S) costs for human spaceflight have not received the same attention in the cost estimating community as have development costs. This is unfortunate as O&S costs typically comprise a majority of life-cycle costs (LCC) in such programs as the International Space Station (ISS) and the now-cancelled Constellation Program. Recognizing this, the Constellation Program and NASA HQs supported the development of an O&S cost model specifically for human spaceflight. This model, known as the Exploration Architectures Operations Cost Model (ExAOCM), provided the operations cost estimates for a variety of alternative human missions to the moon, Mars, and Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) in architectural studies. ExAOCM is philosophically based on the DoD Architecture Framework (DoDAF) concepts of operational nodes, systems, operational functions, and milestones. This paper presents some of the historical background surrounding the development of the model, and discusses the underlying structure, its unusual user interface, and lastly, previous examples of its use in the aforementioned architectural studies.

  11. Estimated incident cost savings in shipping due to inspections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knapp, Sabine; Bijwaard, Govert; Heij, Christiaan

    2011-07-01

    The effectiveness of safety inspections of ships has been analysed from various angles, but until now, relatively little attention has been given to translate risk reduction into incident cost savings. This paper provides a monetary quantification of the cost savings that can be attributed to port state control inspections and industry vetting inspections. The dataset consists of more than half a million ship arrivals between 2002 and 2007 and contains inspections of port state authorities in the USA and Australia and of three industry vetting regimes. The effect of inspections in reducing the risk of total loss accidents is estimated by means of duration models, in terms of the gained probability of survival. The monetary benefit of port state control inspections is estimated to range, on average, from about 70 to 190 thousand dollars, with median values ranging from about 20 to 45 thousand dollars. Industry inspections have even higher benefits, especially for tankers. The savings are in general higher for older and larger vessels, and also for vessels with undefined flag and unknown classification society. As inspection costs are relatively low in comparison to potential cost savings, the results underline the importance of determining ships with relatively high risk of total loss. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. COSTMODL - AN AUTOMATED SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT COST ESTIMATION TOOL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roush, G. B.

    1994-01-01

    The cost of developing computer software consumes an increasing portion of many organizations' budgets. As this trend continues, the capability to estimate the effort and schedule required to develop a candidate software product becomes increasingly important. COSTMODL is an automated software development estimation tool which fulfills this need. Assimilating COSTMODL to any organization's particular environment can yield significant reduction in the risk of cost overruns and failed projects. This user-customization capability is unmatched by any other available estimation tool. COSTMODL accepts a description of a software product to be developed and computes estimates of the effort required to produce it, the calendar schedule required, and the distribution of effort and staffing as a function of the defined set of development life-cycle phases. This is accomplished by the five cost estimation algorithms incorporated into COSTMODL: the NASA-developed KISS model; the Basic, Intermediate, and Ada COCOMO models; and the Incremental Development model. This choice affords the user the ability to handle project complexities ranging from small, relatively simple projects to very large projects. Unique to COSTMODL is the ability to redefine the life-cycle phases of development and the capability to display a graphic representation of the optimum organizational structure required to develop the subject project, along with required staffing levels and skills. The program is menu-driven and mouse sensitive with an extensive context-sensitive help system that makes it possible for a new user to easily install and operate the program and to learn the fundamentals of cost estimation without having prior training or separate documentation. The implementation of these functions, along with the customization feature, into one program makes COSTMODL unique within the industry. COSTMODL was written for IBM PC compatibles, and it requires Turbo Pascal 5.0 or later and Turbo

  13. Estimating generation costs for wind power production in France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benazet, J.F.; Probert, E.J.

    1997-01-01

    Wind power is being exploited in several European countries as one of a possible number of sources of renewable energy. However, in France there is a heavy reliance on nuclear and hydro-electric power and the potential of wind power as part of the energy mix has been virtually ignored. One of the reasons advanced for the under utilisation of this technology is that it is financially unattractive. In this paper the contribution which wind power could potentially make to overall power production levels in France is examined. A cost estimate model is developed which derives electricity generation costs and determines realistic levels of production for the future. The model automatically determines the associated number of wind turbines required and the geographical areas in which they should be located. (author)

  14. Fast Conceptual Cost Estimating of Aerospace Projects Using Historical Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butts, Glenn

    2007-01-01

    Accurate estimates can be created in less than a minute by applying powerful techniques and algorithms to create an Excel-based parametric cost model. In five easy steps you will learn how to normalize your company 's historical cost data to the new project parameters. This paper provides a complete, easy-to-understand, step by step how-to guide. Such a guide does not seem to currently exist. Over 2,000 hours of research, data collection, and trial and error, and thousands of lines of Excel Visual Basic Application (VBA) code were invested in developing these methods. While VBA is not required to use this information, it increases the power and aesthetics of the model. Implementing all of the steps described, while not required, will increase the accuracy of the results.

  15. Costs of regulatory compliance: categories and estimating techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schulte, S.C.; McDonald, C.L.; Wood, M.T.; Cole, R.M.; Hauschulz, K.

    1978-10-01

    Use of the categorization scheme and cost estimating approaches presented in this report can make cost estimates of regulation required compliance activities of value to policy makers. The report describes a uniform assessment framework that when used would assure that cost studies are generated on an equivalent basis. Such normalization would make comparisons of different compliance activity cost estimates more meaningful, thus enabling the relative merits of different regulatory options to be more effectively judged. The framework establishes uniform cost reporting accounts and cost estimating approaches for use in assessing the costs of complying with regulatory actions. The framework was specifically developed for use in a current study at Pacific Northwest Laboratory. However, use of the procedures for other applications is also appropriate

  16. Estimating the cost of blood: past, present, and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shander, Aryeh; Hofmann, Axel; Gombotz, Hans; Theusinger, Oliver M; Spahn, Donat R

    2007-06-01

    Understanding the costs associated with blood products requires sophisticated knowledge about transfusion medicine and is attracting the attention of clinical and administrative healthcare sectors worldwide. To improve outcomes, blood usage must be optimized and expenditures controlled so that resources may be channeled toward other diagnostic, therapeutic, and technological initiatives. Estimating blood costs, however, is a complex undertaking, surpassing simple supply versus demand economics. Shrinking donor availability and application of a precautionary principle to minimize transfusion risks are factors that continue to drive the cost of blood products upward. Recognizing that historical accounting attempts to determine blood costs have varied in scope, perspective, and methodology, new approaches have been initiated to identify all potential cost elements related to blood and blood product administration. Activities are also under way to tie these elements together in a comprehensive and practical model that will be applicable to all single-donor blood products without regard to practice type (e.g., academic, private, multi- or single-center clinic). These initiatives, their rationale, importance, and future directions are described.

  17. A decision model to estimate the cost-effectiveness of intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) compared to three dimensional conformal radiation therapy (3DCRT) in patients receiving radiotherapy to the prostate bed

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carter, Hannah E.; Martin, Andrew; Schofield, Deborah; Duchesne, Gillian; Haworth, Annette; Hornby, Colin; Sidhom, Mark; Jackson, Michael

    2014-01-01

    Background: Intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) is a radiation therapy technology that facilitates the delivery of an improved dose distribution with less dose to surrounding critical structures. This study estimates the longer term effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of IMRT in patients post radical prostatectomy. Methods: A Markov decision model was developed to calculate the incremental quality adjusted life years (QALYs) and costs of IMRT compared with three dimensional conformal radiation therapy (3DCRT). Costs were estimated from the perspective of the Australian health care system. Results: IMRT was both more effective and less costly than 3DCRT over 20 years, with an additional 20 QALYs gained and over $1.1 million saved per 1000 patients treated. This result was robust to plausible levels of uncertainty. Conclusions: IMRT was estimated to have a modest long term advantage over 3DCRT in terms of both improved effectiveness and reduced cost. This result was reliant on clinical judgement and interpretation of the existing literature, but provides quantitative guidance on the cost effectiveness of IMRT whilst long term trial evidence is awaited

  18. The Practice of Cost Estimation for Decommissioning of Nuclear Facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davidova, Ivana; Desecures, Sylvain; Lexow, Thomas; Buonarroti, Stefano; Marini, Giuseppe; Pescatore, Claudio; Rehak, Ivan; Weber, Inge; ); Daniska, Vladimir; Linan, Jorge Borque; Caroll, Simon; Hedberg, Bjoern; De La Gardie, Fredrik; Haenggi, Hannes; Laguardia, Thomas S.; Ridpath, Andy

    2015-01-01

    Decommissioning of both commercial and R and D nuclear facilities is expected to increase significantly in the coming years, and the largest of such industrial decommissioning projects could command considerable budgets. Several approaches are currently being used for decommissioning cost estimations, with an international culture developing in the field. The present cost estimation practice guide was prepared in order to offer international actors specific guidance in preparing quality cost and schedule estimates to support detailed budgeting for the preparation of decommissioning plans, for the securing of funds and for decommissioning implementation. This guide is based on current practices and standards in a number of NEA member countries and aims to help consolidate the practice and process of decommissioning cost estimation so as to make it more widely understood. It offers a useful reference for the practitioner and for training programmes. The remainder of report is divided into the following chapters: - Chapter 2 covers the purpose and nature of decommissioning cost estimates, approaches to cost estimation and the major elements of a cost estimate. - Chapter 3 examines the development of the integrated schedule of the activity-dependent work scope and the determination of the project critical path. - Chapter 4 describes the attributes of a quality assurance programme applicable to cost estimation and the use and cautions of benchmarking the estimate from other estimates or actual costs. - Chapter 5 describes the pyramidal structure of the report, and the scope and content that should be included in the cost study report to ensure consistency and transparency in the estimate underpinnings. - Chapter 6 provides some observations, conclusions and recommendations on the use of this guide

  19. Cost estimate guidelines for advanced nuclear power technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hudson, C.R. II.

    1986-07-01

    To make comparative assessments of competing technologies, consistent ground rules must be applied when developing cost estimates. This document provides a uniform set of assumptions, ground rules, and requirements that can be used in developing cost estimates for advanced nuclear power technologies

  20. Cost estimating issues in the Russian integrated system planning context

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allentuck, J.

    1996-01-01

    An important factor in the credibility of an optimal capacity expansion plan is the accuracy of cost estimates given the uncertainty of future economic conditions. This paper examines the problems associated with estimating investment and operating costs in the Russian nuclear power context over the period 1994 to 2010

  1. Cost estimate guidelines for advanced nuclear power technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delene, J.G.; Hudson, C.R. II.

    1990-03-01

    To make comparative assessments of competing technologies, consistent ground rules must be applied when developing cost estimates. This document provides a uniform set of assumptions, ground rules, and requirements that can be used in developing cost estimates for advanced nuclear power technologies. 10 refs., 8 figs., 32 tabs

  2. Development of regional stump-to-mill logging cost estimators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chris B. LeDoux; John E. Baumgras

    1989-01-01

    Planning logging operations requires estimating the logging costs for the sale or tract being harvested. Decisions need to be made on equipment selection and its application to terrain. In this paper a methodology is described that has been developed and implemented to solve the problem of accurately estimating logging costs by region. The methodology blends field time...

  3. Cost estimate guidelines for advanced nuclear power technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hudson, C.R. II.

    1987-07-01

    To make comparative assessments of competing technologies, consistent ground rules must be applied when developing cost estimates. This document provides a uniform set of assumptions, ground rules, and requirements that can be used in developing cost estimates for advanced nuclear power technologies

  4. Virtualness of the Cost Estimating Community

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-01

    Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 1...I. Introduction Overview Department of Defense (DoD) acquisition programs tend to cost more and require longer development periods than...behaviors on information technology professionals’ turnover intentions. Group Organization Mangement , 326-357. Pegnato, J. A. (2003). Assessing

  5. MONITORED GEOLOGIC REPOSITORY LIFE CYCLE COST ESTIMATE ASSUMPTIONS DOCUMENT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    R.E. Sweeney

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of this assumptions document is to provide general scope, strategy, technical basis, schedule and cost assumptions for the Monitored Geologic Repository (MGR) life cycle cost (LCC) estimate and schedule update incorporating information from the Viability Assessment (VA) , License Application Design Selection (LADS), 1999 Update to the Total System Life Cycle Cost (TSLCC) estimate and from other related and updated information. This document is intended to generally follow the assumptions outlined in the previous MGR cost estimates and as further prescribed by DOE guidance

  6. Monitored Geologic Repository Life Cycle Cost Estimate Assumptions Document

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sweeney, R.

    2000-01-01

    The purpose of this assumptions document is to provide general scope, strategy, technical basis, schedule and cost assumptions for the Monitored Geologic Repository (MGR) life cycle cost estimate and schedule update incorporating information from the Viability Assessment (VA), License Application Design Selection (LADS), 1999 Update to the Total System Life Cycle Cost (TSLCC) estimate and from other related and updated information. This document is intended to generally follow the assumptions outlined in the previous MGR cost estimates and as further prescribed by DOE guidance

  7. Guidelines for estimating nuclear power plant decommissioning costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    LaGuardia, T.S.; Williams, D.H.

    1989-01-01

    The objectives of the study were: (1) To develop guidelines to facilitate estimating the cost of nuclear power plant decommissioning alternatives on a plant-specific basis and to facilitate comparing estimates made by others. The guidelines are expressed in a form that could be readily adapted by technical specialists from individual utilities or by other uses. (2) To enhance the industry's credibility with decision-makes at the state and federal levels during rate/regulatory processes involving decommissioning costs. This is accomplished by providing a detailed, systematic breakdown of how decommissioning cost estimates are prepared. (3) To increase the validity, realism, and accuracy of site-specific decommissioning cost estimates. This is accomplished by pulling together the experiences and practices of several nuclear utilities and consultants in conducting past decommissioning cost estimates

  8. Estimating two indirect logging costs caused by accelerated erosion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glen O. Klock

    1976-01-01

    In forest areas where high soil erosion potential exists, a comparative yarding cost estimate, including the indirect costs determined by methods proposed here, shows that the total cost of using "advanced" logging methods may be less than that of "traditional" systems.

  9. AX Tank Farm waste retrieval alternatives cost estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krieg, S.A.

    1998-01-01

    This report presents the estimated costs associated with retrieval of the wastes from the four tanks in AX Tank Farm. The engineering cost estimates developed for this report are based on previous cost data prepared for Project W-320 and the HTI 241-C-106 Heel Retrieval System. The costs presented in this report address only the retrieval of the wastes from the four AX Farm tanks. This includes costs for equipment procurement, fabrication, installation, and operation to retrieve the wastes. The costs to modify the existing plant equipment and systems to support the retrieval equipment are also included. The estimates do not include operational costs associated with pumping the waste out of the waste receiver tank (241-AY-102) between AX Farm retrieval campaigns or transportation, processing, and disposal of the retrieved waste

  10. The QUELCE Method: Using Change Drivers to Estimate Program Costs

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-08-01

    Analysis 4 2.4 Assign Conditional Probabilities 5 2.5 Apply Uncertainty to Cost Formula Inputs for Scenarios 5 2.6 Perform Monte Carlo Simulation to...Distribution Statement A: Approved for Public Release; Distribution is Unlimited 1 Introduction: The Cost Estimation Challenge Because large-scale programs... challenged [Bliss 2012]. Improvements in cost estimation that would make these assumptions more precise and reduce early lifecycle uncertainty can

  11. A new approach for product cost estimation using data envelopment analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adil Salam

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Cost estimation of new products has always been difficult as only few design, manufacturing and operational features will be known. In these situations, parametric or non-parametric methods are commonly used to estimate the cost of a product given the corresponding cost drivers. The parametric models use priori determined cost function where the parameters of the function are evaluated from historical data. Non-parametric methods, on the other hand, attempt to fit curves to the historic data without predetermined function. In both methods, it is assumed that the historic data used in the analysis is a true representation of the relation between the cost drivers and the corresponding costs. However, because of efficiency variations of the manufacturers and suppliers, changes in supplier selections, market fluctuations, and several other reasons, certain costs in the historic data may be too high whereas other costs may represent better deals for their corresponding cost drivers. Thus, it may be important to rank the historic data and identify benchmarks and estimate the target costs of the product based on these benchmarks. In this paper, a novel adaptation of cost drivers and cost data is introduced in order to use data envelopment analysis for the purpose of ranking cost data and identify benchmarks, and then estimate the target costs of a new product based on these benchmarks. An illustrative case study has been presented for the cost estimation of landing gears of an aircraft manufactured by an aerospace company located in Montreal, CANADA.

  12. Studies in Software Cost Model Behavior: Do We Really Understand Cost Model Performance?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lum, Karen; Hihn, Jairus; Menzies, Tim

    2006-01-01

    While there exists extensive literature on software cost estimation techniques, industry practice continues to rely upon standard regression-based algorithms. These software effort models are typically calibrated or tuned to local conditions using local data. This paper cautions that current approaches to model calibration often produce sub-optimal models because of the large variance problem inherent in cost data and by including far more effort multipliers than the data supports. Building optimal models requires that a wider range of models be considered while correctly calibrating these models requires rejection rules that prune variables and records and use multiple criteria for evaluating model performance. The main contribution of this paper is to document a standard method that integrates formal model identification, estimation, and validation. It also documents what we call the large variance problem that is a leading cause of cost model brittleness or instability.

  13. Cost estimation for slope stability improvement in Muara Enim

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juliantina, Ika; Sutejo, Yulindasari; Adhitya, Bimo Brata; Sari, Nurul Permata; Kurniawan, Reffanda

    2017-11-01

    Case study area of SP. Sugihwaras-Baturaja is typologically specified in the C-zone type because the area is included in the foot of the mountain with a slope of 0 % to 20 %. Generally, the factors that cause landslide in Muara Enim Regency due to the influence of soil/rock, water factor, geological factors, and human activities. Slope improvement on KM.273 + 642-KM.273 + 774 along 132 m using soil nailing with 19 mm diameter tendon iron and an angle of 20o and a 75 mm shotcrete thickness, a K-250 concrete grouting material. Cost modeling (y) soil nailing based on 4 variables are X1 = length, X2 = horizontal distance, X3 = safety factor (SF), and X4 = time. Nine variations were used as multiple linear regression equations and analyzed with SPSS.16.0 program. Based on the SPSS output, then attempt the classical assumption and feasibility test model which produced the model that is Cost = (1,512,062 + 194,354 length-1,649,135 distance + 187,831 SF + 54,864 time) million Rupiah. The budget plan includes preparatory work, drainage system, soil nailing, and shotcrete. An efficient cost estimate of 8 m length nail, 1.5 m installation distance, safety factor (SF) = 1.742 and a 30 day processing time resulted in a fee of Rp. 2,566,313,000.00 (Two billion five hundred sixty six million three hundred thirteen thousand rupiah).

  14. Development of computer program for estimating decommissioning cost - 59037

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Hak-Soo; Park, Jong-Kil

    2012-01-01

    The programs for estimating the decommissioning cost have been developed for many different purposes and applications. The estimation of decommissioning cost is required a large amount of data such as unit cost factors, plant area and its inventory, waste treatment, etc. These make it difficult to use manual calculation or typical spreadsheet software such as Microsoft Excel. The cost estimation for eventual decommissioning of nuclear power plants is a prerequisite for safe, timely and cost-effective decommissioning. To estimate the decommissioning cost more accurately and systematically, KHNP, Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co. Ltd, developed a decommissioning cost estimating computer program called 'DeCAT-Pro', which is Decommission-ing Cost Assessment Tool - Professional. (Hereinafter called 'DeCAT') This program allows users to easily assess the decommissioning cost with various decommissioning options. Also, this program provides detailed reporting for decommissioning funding requirements as well as providing detail project schedules, cash-flow, staffing plan and levels, and waste volumes by waste classifications and types. KHNP is planning to implement functions for estimating the plant inventory using 3-D technology and for classifying the conditions of radwaste disposal and transportation automatically. (authors)

  15. Reducing Inventory System Costs by Using Robust Demand Estimators

    OpenAIRE

    Raymond A. Jacobs; Harvey M. Wagner

    1989-01-01

    Applications of inventory theory typically use historical data to estimate demand distribution parameters. Imprecise knowledge of the demand distribution adds to the usual replenishment costs associated with stochastic demands. Only limited research has been directed at the problem of choosing cost effective statistical procedures for estimating these parameters. Available theoretical findings on estimating the demand parameters for (s, S) inventory replenishment policies are limited by their...

  16. IDC Reengineering Phase 2 & 3 Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) Cost Estimate Summary (Leveraged NDC Case).

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harris, James M.; Prescott, Ryan; Dawson, Jericah M.; Huelskamp, Robert M.

    2014-11-01

    Sandia National Laboratories has prepared a ROM cost estimate for budgetary planning for the IDC Reengineering Phase 2 & 3 effort, based on leveraging a fully funded, Sandia executed NDC Modernization project. This report provides the ROM cost estimate and describes the methodology, assumptions, and cost model details used to create the ROM cost estimate. ROM Cost Estimate Disclaimer Contained herein is a Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) cost estimate that has been provided to enable initial planning for this proposed project. This ROM cost estimate is submitted to facilitate informal discussions in relation to this project and is NOT intended to commit Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) or its resources. Furthermore, as a Federally Funded Research and Development Center (FFRDC), Sandia must be compliant with the Anti-Deficiency Act and operate on a full-cost recovery basis. Therefore, while Sandia, in conjunction with the Sponsor, will use best judgment to execute work and to address the highest risks and most important issues in order to effectively manage within cost constraints, this ROM estimate and any subsequent approved cost estimates are on a 'full-cost recovery' basis. Thus, work can neither commence nor continue unless adequate funding has been accepted and certified by DOE.

  17. Computerized cost estimation spreadsheet and cost data base for fusion devices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, W.R.; Rothe, K.E.

    1985-01-01

    An automated approach to performing and cataloging cost estimates has been developed at the Fusion Engineering Design Center (FEDC), wherein the cost estimate record is stored in the LOTUS 1-2-3 spreadsheet on an IBM personal computer. The cost estimation spreadsheet is based on the cost coefficient/cost algorithm approach and incorporates a detailed generic code of cost accounts for both tokamak and tandem mirror devices. Component design parameters (weight, surface area, etc.) and cost factors are input, and direct and indirect costs are calculated. The cost data base file derived from actual cost experience within the fusion community and refined to be compatible with the spreadsheet costing approach is a catalog of cost coefficients, algorithms, and component costs arranged into data modules corresponding to specific components and/or subsystems. Each data module contains engineering, equipment, and installation labor cost data for different configurations and types of the specific component or subsystem. This paper describes the assumptions, definitions, methodology, and architecture incorporated in the development of the cost estimation spreadsheet and cost data base, along with the type of input required and the output format

  18. NASA/Air Force Cost Model: NAFCOM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winn, Sharon D.; Hamcher, John W. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The NASA/Air Force Cost Model (NAFCOM) is a parametric estimating tool for space hardware. It is based on historical NASA and Air Force space projects and is primarily used in the very early phases of a development project. NAFCOM can be used at the subsystem or component levels.

  19. Probabilistic cost estimating of nuclear power plant construction projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Finch, W.C.; Perry, L.W.; Postula, F.D.

    1978-01-01

    This paper shows how to identify and isolate cost accounts by developing probability trees down to component levels as justified by value and cost uncertainty. Examples are given of the procedure for assessing uncertainty in all areas contributing to cost: design, factory equipment pricing, and field labor and materials. The method of combining these individual uncertainties is presented so that the cost risk can be developed for components, systems and the total plant construction project. Formats which enable management to use the probabilistic cost estimate information for business planning and risk control are illustrated. Topics considered include code estimate performance, cost allocation, uncertainty encoding, probabilistic cost distributions, and interpretation. Effective cost control of nuclear power plant construction projects requires insight into areas of greatest cost uncertainty and a knowledge of the factors which can cause costs to vary from the single value estimates. It is concluded that probabilistic cost estimating can provide the necessary assessment of uncertainties both as to the cause and the consequences

  20. Cost estimates for nuclear power in the UK

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harris, Grant; Heptonstall, Phil; Gross, Robert; Handley, David

    2013-01-01

    Current UK Government support for nuclear power has in part been informed by cost estimates that suggest that electricity from new nuclear power stations will be competitive with alternative low carbon generation options. The evidence and analysis presented in this paper suggests that the capital cost estimates for nuclear power that are being used to inform these projections rely on costs escalating over the pre-construction and construction phase of the new build programme at a level significantly below those that have been experienced by past US and European programmes. This paper applies observed construction time and cost escalation rates to the published estimates of capital costs for new nuclear plant in the UK and calculates the potential impact on levelised cost per unit of electricity produced. The results suggest that levelised cost may turn out to be significantly higher than expected which in turn has important implications for policy, both in general terms of the potential costs to consumers and more specifically for negotiations around the level of policy support and contractual arrangements offered to individual projects through the proposed contract for difference strike price. -- Highlights: •Nuclear power projects costs can rise substantially during the construction period. •Pre-construction and construction time can be much longer than anticipated. •Adjusting estimates for observed experience increases levelised costs significantly. •Higher costs suggest that more policy support than envisaged may be required

  1. Top-down and bottom-up approaches for cost estimating new reactor designs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berbey, P.; Gautier, G.M.; Duflo, D.; Rouyer, J.L.

    2007-01-01

    For several years, Generation-4 designs will be 'pre-conceptual' for the less mature concepts and 'preliminary' for the more mature concepts. In this situation, appropriate data for some of the plant systems may be lacking to develop a bottom-up cost estimate. Therefore, a more global approach, the Top-Down Approach (TDA), is needed to help the designers and decision makers in comparing design options. It utilizes more or less simple models for cost estimating the different parts of a design. TDA cost estimating effort applies to a whole functional element whose cost is approached by similar estimations coming from existing data, ratios and models, for a given range of variation of parameters. Modeling is used when direct analogy is not possible. There are two types of models, global and specific ones. Global models are applied to cost modules related to Code Of Account. Exponential formulae such as Ci = Ai + (Bi x Pi n ) are used when there are cost data for comparable modules in nuclear or other industries. Specific cost models are developed for major specific components of the plant: - process equipment such as reactor vessel, steam generators or large heat exchangers. - buildings, with formulae estimating the construction cost from base cost of m3 of building volume. - systems, when unit costs, cost ratios and models are used, depending on the level of detail of the design. Bottom Up Approach (BUA), which is based on unit prices coming from similar equipment or from manufacturer consulting, is very valuable and gives better cost estimations than TDA when it can be applied, that is at a rather late stage of the design. Both approaches are complementary when some parts of the design are detailed enough to be estimated by BUA, and when BUA results are used to check TDA results and to improve TDA models. This methodology is applied to the HTR (High Temperature Reactor) concept and to an advanced PWR design

  2. 16 CFR 305.5 - Determinations of estimated annual energy consumption, estimated annual operating cost, and...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... consumption, estimated annual operating cost, and energy efficiency rating, and of water use rate. 305.5... RULE CONCERNING DISCLOSURES REGARDING ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND WATER USE OF CERTAIN HOME APPLIANCES AND... § 305.5 Determinations of estimated annual energy consumption, estimated annual operating cost, and...

  3. A Decision Tool that Combines Discrete Event Software Process Models with System Dynamics Pieces for Software Development Cost Estimation and Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mizell, Carolyn Barrett; Malone, Linda

    2007-01-01

    The development process for a large software development project is very complex and dependent on many variables that are dynamic and interrelated. Factors such as size, productivity and defect injection rates will have substantial impact on the project in terms of cost and schedule. These factors can be affected by the intricacies of the process itself as well as human behavior because the process is very labor intensive. The complex nature of the development process can be investigated with software development process models that utilize discrete event simulation to analyze the effects of process changes. The organizational environment and its effects on the workforce can be analyzed with system dynamics that utilizes continuous simulation. Each has unique strengths and the benefits of both types can be exploited by combining a system dynamics model and a discrete event process model. This paper will demonstrate how the two types of models can be combined to investigate the impacts of human resource interactions on productivity and ultimately on cost and schedule.

  4. Ship Repair Workflow Cost Model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    McDevitt, Mike

    2003-01-01

    The effects of intermittent work patterns and funding on the costs of ship repair and maintenance were modeled for the San Diego region in 2002 for Supervisor of Shipbuilding and Repair (SUPSHIP) San Diego...

  5. Comparing Methods for Estimating Direct Costs of Adverse Drug Events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gyllensten, Hanna; Jönsson, Anna K; Hakkarainen, Katja M; Svensson, Staffan; Hägg, Staffan; Rehnberg, Clas

    2017-12-01

    To estimate how direct health care costs resulting from adverse drug events (ADEs) and cost distribution are affected by methodological decisions regarding identification of ADEs, assigning relevant resource use to ADEs, and estimating costs for the assigned resources. ADEs were identified from medical records and diagnostic codes for a random sample of 4970 Swedish adults during a 3-month study period in 2008 and were assessed for causality. Results were compared for five cost evaluation methods, including different methods for identifying ADEs, assigning resource use to ADEs, and for estimating costs for the assigned resources (resource use method, proportion of registered cost method, unit cost method, diagnostic code method, and main diagnosis method). Different levels of causality for ADEs and ADEs' contribution to health care resource use were considered. Using the five methods, the maximum estimated overall direct health care costs resulting from ADEs ranged from Sk10,000 (Sk = Swedish krona; ~€1,500 in 2016 values) using the diagnostic code method to more than Sk3,000,000 (~€414,000) using the unit cost method in our study population. The most conservative definitions for ADEs' contribution to health care resource use and the causality of ADEs resulted in average costs per patient ranging from Sk0 using the diagnostic code method to Sk4066 (~€500) using the unit cost method. The estimated costs resulting from ADEs varied considerably depending on the methodological choices. The results indicate that costs for ADEs need to be identified through medical record review and by using detailed unit cost data. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Cost estimate guidelines for advanced nuclear power technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delene, J.G.; Hudson, C.R. II.

    1993-05-01

    Several advanced power plant concepts are currently under development. These include the Modular High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactors, the Advanced Liquid Metal Reactor and the Advanced Light Water Reactors. One measure of the attractiveness of a new concept is its cost. Invariably, the cost of a new type of power plant will be compared with other alternative forms of electrical generation. This report provides a common starting point, whereby the cost estimates for the various power plants to be considered are developed with common assumptions and ground rules. Comparisons can then be made on a consistent basis. This is the second update of these cost estimate guidelines. Changes have been made to make the guidelines more current (January 1, 1992) and in response to suggestions made as a result of the use of the previous report. The principal changes are that the reference site has been changed from a generic Northeast (Middletown) site to a more central site (EPRI's East/West Central site) and that reference bulk commodity prices and labor productivity rates have been added. This report is designed to provide a framework for the preparation and reporting of costs. The cost estimates will consist of the overnight construction cost, the total plant capital cost, the operation and maintenance costs, the fuel costs, decommissioning costs and the power production or busbar generation cost

  7. Cost-estimate guidelines for advanced nuclear power technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delene, J.G.; Hudson, C.R.

    1993-01-01

    Various advanced power plant concepts are currently under development. These include several advanced light water reactors as well as the modular high-temperature gas-cooled reactor and the advanced liquid-metal reactor. One measure-of the attractiveness of a new concept is cost. Invariably, the cost of a new type of power plant will be compared with other alternative forms of electric generation. In order to make reasonable comparative assessments of competing technologies, consistent ground rules and assumptions must be applied when developing cost estimates. This paper describes the cost-estimate guidelines developed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to be used in developing cost estimates for the advanced nuclear reactors and how these guidelines relate to the DOE cost verification process

  8. Cost estimation of thermal and nuclear power using annual securities report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuo, Yuji; Nagatomi, Yu; Murakami, Tomoko

    2011-01-01

    Cost estimation of generation cost derived from various power sources was widely conducted using model plant or annual securities report of electric utilities. Although annual securities report method was subjected to some limitation in methodology itself, useful information was obtained for cost comparison of thermal and nuclear power. Studies on generation cost evaluation of thermal and nuclear power based on this method during past five years showed that nuclear power cost was almost stable 7 Yen/kWh and thermal power cost was varying 9 - 12 Yen/kWh dependent on violent fluctuations of primary energy cost. Nuclear power was expected cost increase due to enhanced safety requirements or damage compensation of accidents as well as decommissioning and back-end cost, which were difficult to evaluate accurately with annual securities report. Further comprehensive and accurate cost estimation should be encouraged including these items. (T. Tanaka)

  9. The unit cost factors and calculation methods for decommissioning - Cost estimation of nuclear research facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kwan-Seong Jeong; Dong-Gyu Lee; Chong-Hun Jung; Kune-Woo Lee

    2007-01-01

    Available in abstract form only. Full text of publication follows: The uncertainties of decommissioning costs increase high due to several conditions. Decommissioning cost estimation depends on the complexity of nuclear installations, its site-specific physical and radiological inventories. Therefore, the decommissioning costs of nuclear research facilities must be estimated in accordance with the detailed sub-tasks and resources by the tasks of decommissioning activities. By selecting the classified activities and resources, costs are calculated by the items and then the total costs of all decommissioning activities are reshuffled to match with its usage and objectives. And the decommissioning cost of nuclear research facilities is calculated by applying a unit cost factor method on which classification of decommissioning works fitted with the features and specifications of decommissioning objects and establishment of composition factors are based. Decommissioning costs of nuclear research facilities are composed of labor cost, equipment and materials cost. Of these three categorical costs, the calculation of labor costs are very important because decommissioning activities mainly depend on labor force. Labor costs in decommissioning activities are calculated on the basis of working time consumed in decommissioning objects and works. The working times are figured out of unit cost factors and work difficulty factors. Finally, labor costs are figured out by using these factors as parameters of calculation. The accuracy of decommissioning cost estimation results is much higher compared to the real decommissioning works. (authors)

  10. Method for developing cost estimates for generic regulatory requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-01-01

    The NRC has established a practice of performing regulatory analyses, reflecting costs as well as benefits, of proposed new or revised generic requirements. A method had been developed to assist the NRC in preparing the types of cost estimates required for this purpose and for assigning priorities in the resolution of generic safety issues. The cost of a generic requirement is defined as the net present value of total lifetime cost incurred by the public, industry, and government in implementing the requirement for all affected plants. The method described here is for commercial light-water-reactor power plants. Estimating the cost for a generic requirement involves several steps: (1) identifying the activities that must be carried out to fully implement the requirement, (2) defining the work packages associated with the major activities, (3) identifying the individual elements of cost for each work package, (4) estimating the magnitude of each cost element, (5) aggregating individual plant costs over the plant lifetime, and (6) aggregating all plant costs and generic costs to produce a total, national, present value of lifetime cost for the requirement. The method developed addresses all six steps. In this paper, we discuss on the first three

  11. BIM – New rules of measurement ontology for construction cost estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F.H. Abanda

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available For generations, the process of cost estimation has been manual, time-consuming and error-prone. Emerging Building Information Modelling (BIM can exploit standard measurement methods to automate cost estimation process and improve inaccuracies. Structuring standard measurement methods in an ontologically and machine readable format for a BIM software can greatly facilitate the process of improving inaccuracies in cost estimation. This study explores the development of an ontology based on New Rules of Measurement (NRM for cost estimation during the tendering stages. The methodology adopted is methontology, one of the most widely used ontology engineering methodologies. To ensure the ontology is fit for purpose, cost estimation experts are employed to check the semantics, descriptive logic-based reasoners are used to syntactically check the ontology and a leading 4D BIM modelling software is used on a case study building to test/validate the proposed ontology.

  12. Development of an integrated cost model for nuclear plant decommissioning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amos, G.; Roy, R.

    2003-01-01

    A need for an integrated cost estimating tool for nuclear decommissioning and associated waste processing and storage facilities for Intermediate Level Waste (ILW) was defined during the authors recent MSc studies. In order to close the defined gap a prototype tool was developed using logically derived CER's and cost driver variables. The challenge in developing this was to be able to produce a model that could produce realistic cost estimates from the limited levels of historic cost data that was available for analysis. The model is an excel based tool supported by 3 point risk estimating output and is suitable for producing estimates for strategic or optional cost estimates (±30%) early in the conceptual stage of a decommissioning project. The model was validated using minimal numbers of case studies supported by expert opinion discussion. The model provides an enhanced approach for integrated decommissioning estimates which will be produced concurrently with strategic options analysis on a nuclear site

  13. Well-founded cost estimation validated by experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    LaGuardia, T.S.

    2005-01-01

    Full text: Reliable cost estimating is one of the most important elements of decommissioning planning. Alternative technologies may be evaluated and compared based on their efficiency and effectiveness, and measured against a baseline cost as to the feasibility and benefits derived from the technology. When the plan is complete, those cost considerations ensure that it is economically sound and practical for funding. Estimates of decommissioning costs have been performed and published by many organizations for many different applications. The results often vary because of differences in the work scope. Labor force cost, monetary considerations, oversight costs, the specific contaminated materials involved, the waste stream and peripheral costs associated with that type of waste, or applicable environmental compliance requirements. Many of these differences are unavoidable since a reasonable degree of reliability and accuracy can only be achieved by developing decommissioning cost estimates on a case-by-case site-specific basis. This paper describes the estimating methodology and process applied to develop decommissioning cost estimates. A major effort has been made to standardize these methodologies, and to understand the assumptions and bases that drive the costs. However, estimates are only as accurate as the information available from which to derive the costs. This information includes the assumptions of scope of the work, labour cost inputs, inflationary effects, and financial analyses that project these costs to year of expenditure. Attempts at comparison of estimates for two facilities of similar design and size must clearly identify the assumptions used in developing the estimate, and comparison of actual costs versus estimated costs must reflect these same assumptions. For the nuclear industry to grow, decommissioning estimating tools must improve to keep pace with changing technology, regulations and stakeholder issues. The decommissioning industry needs

  14. Use of travel cost models in planning: A case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allan Marsinko; William T. Zawacki; J. Michael Bowker

    2002-01-01

    This article examines the use of the travel cost, method in tourism-related decision making in the area of nonconsumptive wildlife-associated recreation. A travel cost model of nonconsumptive wildlife-associated recreation, developed by Zawacki, Maninko, and Bowker, is used as a case study for this analysis. The travel cost model estimates the demand for the activity...

  15. Cost estimation of the future harvest as agricultural loan collateral

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vnukova, N. N.

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this work is to attempt developing recommendations which may improve the overall banking technique of future cropping cost estimating. Objectives that have been set to achieve this aim are: to analyze alternative techniques of future cropping cost estimating; to perform calculation according to the selected techniques for 10 agricultural companies from different regions of Ukraine; to compare the techniques by means of hierarchy analysis method.

  16. The Acquisition Cost-Estimating Workforce. Census and Characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    Abbreviations AAC Air Armament Center ACAT acquisition category ACEIT Automated Cost Estimating Integrated Tools AF Air Force AFB Air Force Base AFCAA Air...3 3 4 Automated Cost Estimating Integrated Tools ( ACEIT ) 0 1 12 6 Tecolotea training 0 0 10 5 Other 3 13 24 18 No training 18 4 29 18 Total 100 100...other sources, including AFIT, ACEIT ,9 or the contracting agency that employed them. The remain- ing 29 percent reported having received no training

  17. Estimating the costs of intensity-modulated and 3-dimensional conformal radiotherapy in Ontario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yong, J H E; McGowan, T; Redmond-Misner, R; Beca, J; Warde, P; Gutierrez, E; Hoch, J S

    2016-06-01

    Radiotherapy is a common treatment for many cancers, but up-to-date estimates of the costs of radiotherapy are lacking. In the present study, we estimated the unit costs of intensity-modulated radiotherapy (imrt) and 3-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3D-crt) in Ontario. An activity-based costing model was developed to estimate the costs of imrt and 3D-crt in prostate cancer. It included the costs of equipment, staff, and supporting infrastructure. The framework was subsequently adapted to estimate the costs of radiotherapy in breast cancer and head-and-neck cancer. We also tested various scenarios by varying the program maturity and the use of volumetric modulated arc therapy (vmat) alongside imrt. From the perspective of the health care system, treating prostate cancer with imrt and 3D-crt respectively cost $12,834 and $12,453 per patient. The cost of radiotherapy ranged from $5,270 to $14,155 and was sensitive to analytic perspective, radiation technique, and disease site. Cases of head-and-neck cancer were the most costly, being driven by treatment complexity and fractions per treatment. Although imrt was more costly than 3D-crt, its cost will likely decline over time as programs mature and vmat is incorporated. Our costing model can be modified to estimate the costs of 3D-crt and imrt for various disease sites and settings. The results demonstrate the important role of capital costs in studies of radiotherapy cost from a health system perspective, which our model can accommodate. In addition, our study established the need for future analyses of imrt cost to consider how vmat affects time consumption.

  18. Animated-simulation modeling facilitates clinical-process costing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zelman, W N; Glick, N D; Blackmore, C C

    2001-09-01

    Traditionally, the finance department has assumed responsibility for assessing process costs in healthcare organizations. To enhance process-improvement efforts, however, many healthcare providers need to include clinical staff in process cost analysis. Although clinical staff often use electronic spreadsheets to model the cost of specific processes, PC-based animated-simulation tools offer two major advantages over spreadsheets: they allow clinicians to interact more easily with the costing model so that it more closely represents the process being modeled, and they represent cost output as a cost range rather than as a single cost estimate, thereby providing more useful information for decision making.

  19. Cost Calculation Model for Logistics Service Providers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zoltán Bokor

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The exact calculation of logistics costs has become a real challenge in logistics and supply chain management. It is essential to gain reliable and accurate costing information to attain efficient resource allocation within the logistics service provider companies. Traditional costing approaches, however, may not be sufficient to reach this aim in case of complex and heterogeneous logistics service structures. So this paper intends to explore the ways of improving the cost calculation regimes of logistics service providers and show how to adopt the multi-level full cost allocation technique in logistics practice. After determining the methodological framework, a sample cost calculation scheme is developed and tested by using estimated input data. Based on the theoretical findings and the experiences of the pilot project it can be concluded that the improved costing model contributes to making logistics costing more accurate and transparent. Moreover, the relations between costs and performances also become more visible, which enhances the effectiveness of logistics planning and controlling significantly

  20. Estimated Incident Cost Savings in Shipping Due to Inspections

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Knapp (Sabine); G.E. Bijwaard (Govert); C. Heij (Christiaan)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThe effectiveness of safety inspections has been analysed from various angles, but until now, relatively little attention has been given to translate risk reduction into incident cost savings. This paper quantifies estimated cost savings based on port state control inspections and

  1. The application of cost behaviour and estimation in organisational ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Based on these findings, the paper recommends among others the need for the regular training of the management accountant in the modern methods of cost estimation, the need for accurate keeping of records of transactions and for long term forecasting of cost, management should rely on quantitative factors and ...

  2. Estimating design costs for first-of-a-kind projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Banerjee, Bakul; Fermilab

    2006-01-01

    Modern scientific facilities are often outcomes of projects that are first-of-a-kind, that is, minimal historical data are available for project costs and schedules. However, at Fermilab, there was an opportunity to execute two similar projects consecutively. In this paper, a comparative study of the design costs for these two projects is presented using earned value methodology. This study provides some insights into how to estimate the cost of a replicated project

  3. A parametric costing model for wave energy technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    This document describes the philosophy and technical approach to a parametric cost model for offshore wave energy systems. Consideration is given both to existing known devices and other devices yet to be conceptualised. The report is complementary to a spreadsheet based cost estimating model. The latter permits users to derive capital cost estimates using either inherent default data or user provided data, if a particular scheme provides sufficient design definition for more accurate estimation. The model relies on design default data obtained from wave energy device designs and a set of specifically collected cost data. (author)

  4. Hydrogen Production Cost Estimate Using Biomass Gasification: Independent Review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruth, M.

    2011-10-01

    This independent review is the conclusion arrived at from data collection, document reviews, interviews and deliberation from December 2010 through April 2011 and the technical potential of Hydrogen Production Cost Estimate Using Biomass Gasification. The Panel reviewed the current H2A case (Version 2.12, Case 01D) for hydrogen production via biomass gasification and identified four principal components of hydrogen levelized cost: CapEx; feedstock costs; project financing structure; efficiency/hydrogen yield. The panel reexamined the assumptions around these components and arrived at new estimates and approaches that better reflect the current technology and business environments.

  5. On Cost Estimate for Decommissioning of one Isotope Central

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marek Vasko et al

    2010-08-01

    The main scope of this study has been to calculate the future cost for decommission and dismantling the Isotope central at the Studsvik site using the OMEGA CODE. Detailed empirical information is used in the study for 'bench-marking' purposes, in such cases when there is a need to supplement and correct field data from the industry. In the present study, data has been retrieved and organized such that the estimated costs for decommissioning of the Isotope Central become transparent and reliable. This approach gives a preliminary qualitative indication about the accuracy of the cost estimate delivered by the industry

  6. On Cost Estimate for Decommissioning of one Isotope Central

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marek Vasko et al

    2010-08-15

    The main scope of this study has been to calculate the future cost for decommission and dismantling the Isotope central at the Studsvik site using the OMEGA CODE. Detailed empirical information is used in the study for 'bench-marking' purposes, in such cases when there is a need to supplement and correct field data from the industry. In the present study, data has been retrieved and organized such that the estimated costs for decommissioning of the Isotope Central become transparent and reliable. This approach gives a preliminary qualitative indication about the accuracy of the cost estimate delivered by the industry

  7. Estimating the cost of disposal for Canada's nuclear fuel waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ates, Y.

    1996-07-01

    Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd (AECL) prepared an Environmental Impact Statement and nine supporting Primary Reference Documents on the concept for disposal of Canada's nuclear fuel waste. This report summarizes the basis of the cost estimate which is provided in the primary reference document on engineering for a disposal facility. The scope of the cost estimate is explained by describing the key features of the disposal facility design, by noting the major assumptions made in preparing the estimates, and by listing the included and excluded cost components. An activity-based project planning and control method is explained whereby the project schedule, costs, and personnel requirements are interlinked; forming an integrated perspective on the total project life cycle. The summary and distribution of costs in each project stage by major facility or activity are presented. The results of studies which reviewed the overall cost estimate are also described. These studies indicate that, within the scope, the estimate is reasonable and compares well with similar international studies. (author)

  8. Computerized cost estimation spreadsheet and cost data base for fusion devices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, W.R.; Rothe, K.E.

    1985-01-01

    Component design parameters (weight, surface area, etc.) and cost factors are input and direct and indirect costs are calculated. The cost data base file derived from actual cost experience within the fusion community and refined to be compatible with the spreadsheet costing approach is a catalog of cost coefficients, algorithms, and component costs arranged into data modules corresponding to specific components and/or subsystems. Each data module contains engineering, equipment, and installation labor cost data for different configurations and types of the specific component or subsystem. This paper describes the assumptions, definitions, methodology, and architecture incorporated in the development of the cost estimation spreadsheet and cost data base, along with the type of input required and the output format

  9. Cost Engineering Techniques and Their Applicability for Cost Estimation of Organic Rankine Cycle Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanne Lemmens

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The potential of organic Rankine cycle (ORC systems is acknowledged by both considerable research and development efforts and an increasing number of applications. Most research aims at improving ORC systems through technical performance optimization of various cycle architectures and working fluids. The assessment and optimization of technical feasibility is at the core of ORC development. Nonetheless, economic feasibility is often decisive when it comes down to considering practical instalments, and therefore an increasing number of publications include an estimate of the costs of the designed ORC system. Various methods are used to estimate ORC costs but the resulting values are rarely discussed with respect to accuracy and validity. The aim of this paper is to provide insight into the methods used to estimate these costs and open the discussion about the interpretation of these results. A review of cost engineering practices shows there has been a long tradition of industrial cost estimation. Several techniques have been developed, but the expected accuracy range of the best techniques used in research varies between 10% and 30%. The quality of the estimates could be improved by establishing up-to-date correlations for the ORC industry in particular. Secondly, the rapidly growing ORC cost literature is briefly reviewed. A graph summarizing the estimated ORC investment costs displays a pattern of decreasing costs for increasing power output. Knowledge on the actual costs of real ORC modules and projects remains scarce. Finally, the investment costs of a known heat recovery ORC system are discussed and the methodologies and accuracies of several approaches are demonstrated using this case as benchmark. The best results are obtained with factorial estimation techniques such as the module costing technique, but the accuracies may diverge by up to +30%. Development of correlations and multiplication factors for ORC technology in particular is

  10. A Cost Simulation Tool for Estimating the Cost of Operating Government Owned and Operated Ships

    Science.gov (United States)

    1994-09-01

    Horngren , C.T., Foster, G., Datar, S.M., Cost Accounting : A Management Emphasis, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 1994 IBM Corporation, A Graphical...4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE A COST SIMULATION TOOL FOR 5. FUNDING NUMBERS ESTIMATING THE COST OF OPERATING GOVERNMENT OWNED AND OPERATED SHIPS 6. AUTHOR( S ...normally does not present a problem to the accounting department. The final category, the cost of operating the government owned and operated ships is

  11. [Methodologies for estimating the indirect costs of traffic accidents].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carozzi, Soledad; Elorza, María Eugenia; Moscoso, Nebel Silvana; Ripari, Nadia Vanina

    2017-01-01

    Traffic accidents generate multiple costs to society, including those associated with the loss of productivity. However, there is no consensus about the most appropriate methodology for estimating those costs. The aim of this study was to review methods for estimating indirect costs applied in crash cost studies. A thematic review of the literature was carried out between 1995 and 2012 in PubMed with the terms cost of illness, indirect cost, road traffic injuries, productivity loss. For the assessment of costs we used the the human capital method, on the basis of the wage-income lost during the time of treatment and recovery of patients and caregivers. In the case of premature death or total disability, the discount rate was applied to obtain the present value of lost future earnings. The computed years arose by subtracting to life expectancy at birth the average age of those affected who are not incorporated into the economically active life. The interest in minimizing the problem is reflected in the evolution of the implemented methodologies. We expect that this review is useful to estimate efficiently the real indirect costs of traffic accidents.

  12. Cost Model Comparison: A Study of Internally and Commercially Developed Cost Models in Use by NASA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Garima

    2011-01-01

    NASA makes use of numerous cost models to accurately estimate the cost of various components of a mission - hardware, software, mission/ground operations - during the different stages of a mission's lifecycle. The purpose of this project was to survey these models and determine in which respects they are similar and in which they are different. The initial survey included a study of the cost drivers for each model, the form of each model (linear/exponential/other CER, range/point output, capable of risk/sensitivity analysis), and for what types of missions and for what phases of a mission lifecycle each model is capable of estimating cost. The models taken into consideration consisted of both those that were developed by NASA and those that were commercially developed: GSECT, NAFCOM, SCAT, QuickCost, PRICE, and SEER. Once the initial survey was completed, the next step in the project was to compare the cost models' capabilities in terms of Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) elements. This final comparison was then portrayed in a visual manner with Venn diagrams. All of the materials produced in the process of this study were then posted on the Ground Segment Team (GST) Wiki.

  13. Fuel Cell System for Transportation -- 2005 Cost Estimate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wheeler, D.

    2006-10-01

    Independent review report of the methodology used by TIAX to estimate the cost of producing PEM fuel cells using 2005 cell stack technology. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Hydrogen, Fuel Cells and Infrastructure Technologies Program Manager asked the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to commission an independent review of the 2005 TIAX cost analysis for fuel cell production. The NREL Systems Integrator is responsible for conducting independent reviews of progress toward meeting the DOE Hydrogen Program (the Program) technical targets. An important technical target of the Program is the proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cell cost in terms of dollars per kilowatt ($/kW). The Program's Multi-Year Program Research, Development, and Demonstration Plan established $125/kW as the 2005 technical target. Over the last several years, the Program has contracted with TIAX, LLC (TIAX) to produce estimates of the high volume cost of PEM fuel cell production for transportation use. Since no manufacturer is yet producing PEM fuel cells in the quantities needed for an initial hydrogen-based transportation economy, these estimates are necessary for DOE to gauge progress toward meeting its targets. For a PEM fuel cell system configuration developed by Argonne National Laboratory, TIAX estimated the total cost to be $108/kW, based on assumptions of 500,000 units per year produced with 2005 cell stack technology, vertical integration of cell stack manufacturing, and balance-of-plant (BOP) components purchased from a supplier network. Furthermore, TIAX conducted a Monte Carlo analysis by varying ten key parameters over a wide range of values and estimated with 98% certainty that the mean PEM fuel cell system cost would be below DOE's 2005 target of $125/kW. NREL commissioned DJW TECHNOLOGY, LLC to form an Independent Review Team (the Team) of industry fuel cell experts and to evaluate the cost estimation process and the results reported by TIAX. The results of

  14. SOFTCOST - DEEP SPACE NETWORK SOFTWARE COST MODEL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tausworthe, R. C.

    1994-01-01

    The early-on estimation of required resources and a schedule for the development and maintenance of software is usually the least precise aspect of the software life cycle. However, it is desirable to make some sort of an orderly and rational attempt at estimation in order to plan and organize an implementation effort. The Software Cost Estimation Model program, SOFTCOST, was developed to provide a consistent automated resource and schedule model which is more formalized than the often used guesswork model based on experience, intuition, and luck. SOFTCOST was developed after the evaluation of a number of existing cost estimation programs indicated that there was a need for a cost estimation program with a wide range of application and adaptability to diverse kinds of software. SOFTCOST combines several software cost models found in the open literature into one comprehensive set of algorithms that compensate for nearly fifty implementation factors relative to size of the task, inherited baseline, organizational and system environment, and difficulty of the task. SOFTCOST produces mean and variance estimates of software size, implementation productivity, recommended staff level, probable duration, amount of computer resources required, and amount and cost of software documentation. Since the confidence level for a project using mean estimates is small, the user is given the opportunity to enter risk-biased values for effort, duration, and staffing, to achieve higher confidence levels. SOFTCOST then produces a PERT/CPM file with subtask efforts, durations, and precedences defined so as to produce the Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) and schedule having the asked-for overall effort and duration. The SOFTCOST program operates in an interactive environment prompting the user for all of the required input. The program builds the supporting PERT data base in a file for later report generation or revision. The PERT schedule and the WBS schedule may be printed and stored in a

  15. A Departmental Cost-Effectiveness Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holleman, Thomas, Jr.

    In establishing a departmental cost-effectiveness model, the traditional cost-effectiveness model was discussed and equipped with a distant and deflation equation for both benefits and costs. Next, the economics of costing was examined and program costing procedures developed. Then, the model construct was described as it was structured around the…

  16. Estimating productivity costs using the friction cost approach in practice: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kigozi, Jesse; Jowett, Sue; Lewis, Martyn; Barton, Pelham; Coast, Joanna

    2016-01-01

    The choice of the most appropriate approach to valuing productivity loss has received much debate in the literature. The friction cost approach has been proposed as a more appropriate alternative to the human capital approach when valuing productivity loss, although its application remains limited. This study reviews application of the friction cost approach in health economic studies and examines how its use varies in practice across different country settings. A systematic review was performed to identify economic evaluation studies that have estimated productivity costs using the friction cost approach and published in English from 1996 to 2013. A standard template was developed and used to extract information from studies meeting the inclusion criteria. The search yielded 46 studies from 12 countries. Of these, 28 were from the Netherlands. Thirty-five studies reported the length of friction period used, with only 16 stating explicitly the source of the friction period. Nine studies reported the elasticity correction factor used. The reported friction cost approach methods used to derive productivity costs varied in quality across studies from different countries. Few health economic studies have estimated productivity costs using the friction cost approach. The estimation and reporting of productivity costs using this method appears to differ in quality by country. The review reveals gaps and lack of clarity in reporting of methods for friction cost evaluation. Generating reporting guidelines and country-specific parameters for the friction cost approach is recommended if increased application and accuracy of the method is to be realized.

  17. Patient-physician discussions about costs: definitions and impact on cost conversation incidence estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, Wynn G; Hesson, Ashley; Davis, J Kelly; Kirby, Christine; Williamson, Lillie D; Barnett, Jamison A; Ubel, Peter A

    2016-03-31

    Nearly one in three Americans are financially burdened by their medical expenses. To mitigate financial distress, experts recommend routine physician-patient cost conversations. However, the content and incidence of these conversations are unclear, and rigorous definitions are lacking. We sought to develop a novel set of cost conversation definitions, and determine the impact of definitional variation on cost conversation incidence in three clinical settings. Retrospective, mixed-methods analysis of transcribed dialogue from 1,755 outpatient encounters for routine clinical management of breast cancer, rheumatoid arthritis, and depression, occurring between 2010-2014. We developed cost conversation definitions using summative content analysis. Transcripts were evaluated independently by at least two members of our multi-disciplinary team to determine cost conversation incidence using each definition. Incidence estimates were compared using Pearson's Chi-Square Tests. Three cost conversation definitions emerged from our analysis: (a) Out-of-Pocket (OoP) Cost--discussion of the patient's OoP costs for a healthcare service; (b) Cost/Coverage--discussion of the patient's OoP costs or insurance coverage; (c) Cost of Illness- discussion of financial costs or insurance coverage related to health or healthcare. These definitions were hierarchical; OoP Cost was a subset of Cost/Coverage, which was a subset of Cost of Illness. In each clinical setting, we observed significant variation in the incidence of cost conversations when using different definitions; breast oncology: 16, 22, 24% of clinic visits contained cost conversation (OOP Cost, Cost/Coverage, Cost of Illness, respectively; P cost conversation varied significantly depending on the definition used. Our findings and proposed definitions may assist in retrospective interpretation and prospective design of investigations on this topic.

  18. Estimating remediation costs for the Montclair radium superfund sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Turner, M.J.

    1995-01-01

    The Montclair/West Orange and Glen Ridge Superfund Sites, located in Essex County, NJ, are contaminated to varying degrees with radioactive materials. The waste originated from radium processing facilities prevalent in the area during the early 1900s. The design for remediation of these sites is managed by Bechtel National, Inc. on behalf of the United States Army Corps of Engineers, Kansas City District, which administers the project through an interagency agreement with the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Design efforts for the project began in 1990. A portion of the scope, which is the topic of this article, was preparing the remediation costs estimates. These estimates were to be prepared from the detailed design packages; the Corps of Engineers required that the estimates were prepared using the Micro Computer-Aided Cost Estimating System (MCACES). This article discusses the design methods used, provides an overview of MCACES, and discusses the structure and preparation of the cost estimate and its uses. However, the main focus of the article is the methods used to generate the required project-specific cost estimate format for this project. 6 figs

  19. Construction cost estimation of spherical storage tanks: artificial neural networks and hybrid regression—GA algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arabzadeh, Vida; Niaki, S. T. A.; Arabzadeh, Vahid

    2017-10-01

    One of the most important processes in the early stages of construction projects is to estimate the cost involved. This process involves a wide range of uncertainties, which make it a challenging task. Because of unknown issues, using the experience of the experts or looking for similar cases are the conventional methods to deal with cost estimation. The current study presents data-driven methods for cost estimation based on the application of artificial neural network (ANN) and regression models. The learning algorithms of the ANN are the Levenberg-Marquardt and the Bayesian regulated. Moreover, regression models are hybridized with a genetic algorithm to obtain better estimates of the coefficients. The methods are applied in a real case, where the input parameters of the models are assigned based on the key issues involved in a spherical tank construction. The results reveal that while a high correlation between the estimated cost and the real cost exists; both ANNs could perform better than the hybridized regression models. In addition, the ANN with the Levenberg-Marquardt learning algorithm (LMNN) obtains a better estimation than the ANN with the Bayesian-regulated learning algorithm (BRNN). The correlation between real data and estimated values is over 90%, while the mean square error is achieved around 0.4. The proposed LMNN model can be effective to reduce uncertainty and complexity in the early stages of the construction project.

  20. The cost of Alzheimer's disease in China and re-estimation of costs worldwide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Jianping; Wei, Cuibai; Chen, Shuoqi; Li, Fangyu; Tang, Yi; Qin, Wei; Zhao, Lina; Jin, Hongmei; Xu, Hui; Wang, Fen; Zhou, Aihong; Zuo, Xiumei; Wu, Liyong; Han, Ying; Han, Yue; Huang, Liyuan; Wang, Qi; Li, Dan; Chu, Changbiao; Shi, Lu; Gong, Min; Du, Yifeng; Zhang, Jiewen; Zhang, Junjian; Zhou, Chunkui; Lv, Jihui; Lv, Yang; Xie, Haiqun; Ji, Yong; Li, Fang; Yu, Enyan; Luo, Benyan; Wang, Yanjiang; Yang, Shanshan; Qu, Qiumin; Guo, Qihao; Liang, Furu; Zhang, Jintao; Tan, Lan; Shen, Lu; Zhang, Kunnan; Zhang, Jinbiao; Peng, Dantao; Tang, Muni; Lv, Peiyuan; Fang, Boyan; Chu, Lan; Jia, Longfei; Gauthier, Serge

    2018-04-01

    The socioeconomic costs of Alzheimer's disease (AD) in China and its impact on global economic burden remain uncertain. We collected data from 3098 patients with AD in 81 representative centers across China and estimated AD costs for individual patient and total patients in China in 2015. Based on this data, we re-estimated the worldwide costs of AD. The annual socioeconomic cost per patient was US $19,144.36, and total costs were US $167.74 billion in 2015. The annual total costs are predicted to reach US $507.49 billion in 2030 and US $1.89 trillion in 2050. Based on our results, the global estimates of costs for dementia were US $957.56 billion in 2015, and will be US $2.54 trillion in 2030, and US $9.12 trillion in 2050, much more than the predictions by the World Alzheimer Report 2015. China bears a heavy burden of AD costs, which greatly change the estimates of AD cost worldwide. Copyright © 2017 the Alzheimer's Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. The Software Cost Estimation Method Based on Fuzzy Ontology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Plecka Przemysław

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In the course of sales process of Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP Systems, it turns out that the standard system must be extended or changed (modified according to specific customer’s requirements. Therefore, suppliers face the problem of determining the cost of additional works. Most methods of cost estimation bring satisfactory results only at the stage of pre-implementation analysis. However, suppliers need to know the estimated cost as early as at the stage of trade talks. During contract negotiations, they expect not only the information about the costs of works, but also about the risk of exceeding these costs or about the margin of safety. One method that gives more accurate results at the stage of trade talks is the method based on the ontology of implementation costs. This paper proposes modification of the method involving the use of fuzzy attributes, classes, instances and relations in the ontology. The result provides not only the information about the value of work, but also about the minimum and maximum expected cost, and the most likely range of costs. This solution allows suppliers to effectively negotiate the contract and increase the chances of successful completion of the project.

  2. 78 FR 61227 - Public Assistance Cost Estimating Format for Large Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-10-03

    ... equipment. The base cost (construction costs) plus nonconstruction costs equal the total eligible cost... included the estimated base cost plus the estimated nonconstruction costs. Under the traditional method... total cost of completing the project. This ``forward- pricing'' methodology provides an estimate of the...

  3. Fusion reactor design studies: standard accounts for cost estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schulte, S.C.; Willke, T.L.; Young, J.R.

    1978-05-01

    The fusion reactor design studies--standard accounts for cost estimates provides a common format from which to assess the economic character of magnetically confined fusion reactor design concepts. The format will aid designers in the preparation of design concept costs estimates and also provide policymakers with a tool to assist in appraising which design concept may be economically promising. The format sets forth a categorization and accounting procedure to be used when estimating fusion reactor busbar energy cost that can be easily and consistently applied. Reasons for developing the procedure, explanations of the procedure, justifications for assumptions made in the procedure, and the applicability of the procedure are described in this document. Adherence to the format when evaluating prospective fusion reactor design concepts will result in the identification of the more promising design concepts thus enabling the fusion power alternatives with better economic potential to be quickly and efficiently developed

  4. A Deterministic and Probabilistic Cost Estimate for Nuclear Power Plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ha, Gag Kyeon; Kwon, Jong Jooh

    2005-01-01

    There are many cost estimate methodologies for some future projects. Revenue Requirement Method (RRM), Cost/Benefit Ratio method, Return on Investment, Pay Back Period Method. etc. This paper uses the RRM method which is the amount of revenue that must be collected from customers to compensate a utility for all expenditures associated with implementing an alternative decision involving money. This RRM can be combined with a random sampling statistical simulation computer program to calculated the Probability Distribution Functions(PDF) of the cost elements for generating cost. EPRI developed this combined statistical techniques into RRM, named Statistical Revenue Requirement Method(SRRM). The statistical technique is a random sampling statistical simulation. The simulation tool is usually Monte Carlo sampling, Latin Latin Hypercube sampling, etc. SRRM is used to estimating for future power plants, apartments, hospital, marketing, etc. In this paper, RRM calculation and SRRM simulation have been practiced for PWR1400MWe nuclear power plants

  5. Estimating the mental health costs of racial discrimination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amanuel Elias

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Racial discrimination is a pervasive social problem in several advanced countries such as the U.S., U.K., and Australia. Public health research also indicates a range of associations between exposure to racial discrimination and negative health, particularly, mental health including depression, anxiety, and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD. However, the direct negative health impact of racial discrimination has not been costed so far although economists have previously estimated indirect non-health related productivity costs. In this study, we estimate the burden of disease due to exposure to racial discrimination and measure the cost of this exposure. Methods Using prevalence surveys and data on the association of racial discrimination with health outcomes from a global meta-analysis, we apply a cost of illness method to measure the impact of racial discrimination. This estimate indicates the direct health cost attributable to racial discrimination and we convert the estimates to monetary values based on conventional parameters. Results Racial discrimination costs the Australian economy 235,452 in disability adjusted life years lost, equivalent to $37.9 billion per annum, roughly 3.02% of annual gross domestic product (GDP over 2001–11, indicating a sizeable loss for the economy. Conclusion Substantial cost is incurred due to increased prevalence of racial discrimination as a result of its association with negative health outcomes (e.g. depression, anxiety and PTSD. This implies that potentially significant cost savings can be made through measures that target racial discrimination. Our research contributes to the debate on the social impact of racial discrimination, with implications for policies and efforts addressing it.

  6. Applying Insights from Transaction Cost Economics (TCE) to Improve DoD Cost Estimation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Angelis, Diana I; Dillard, John; Franck, Raymond; Melese, Francois

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to explore the possibility of improving DoD cost estimation methods by including explanatory variables that capture the coordination and motivation problems associated with the program...

  7. Radium removal processes capital and operating cost estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kelly, F.J.

    1979-09-01

    An estimate of the fixed capital and operating costs for two alternative processes for the removal of dissolved Ra-226 from uranium mill effluent in Elliot Lake, Ontario is presented. Process 1 consists of barium-radium coprecipitation followed by coagulation, flocculation and sedimentation. Process 2 consists of barium-radium coprecipitation followed by gravity media filtration, sand filter backwashing and sedimentation. Cost estimates were prepared for 18 different plant configurations designed to treat 1000 and 4000 imperial gallons per minute (ig/m) of effluent, 24 hrs per day, 7 days per week and 365 days per year with several equipment options. The estimated fixed capital costs for plants equipped with gravity filters were less than those equipped with circular clarifiers. The capital costs ranged from $552,000 with a flow rate of 1000 ig/m to $2,578,000 with a flow rate of 4000 ig/m. Estimated annual operating costs, based on a plant life of 10 years, ranged from $298,000 with a flow rate of 1000 ig/m to $1,061,000 with a flow rate of 4000 ig/m

  8. How Much? Cost Models for Online Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorenzo, George

    2001-01-01

    Reviews some of the research being done in the area of cost models for online education. Describes a cost analysis handbook; an activity-based costing model that was based on an economic model for traditional instruction at the Indiana University Purdue University Indianapolis; and blending other costing models. (LRW)

  9. Comparing NASA and ESA Cost Estimating Methods for Human Missions to Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunt, Charles D.; vanPelt, Michel O.

    2004-01-01

    To compare working methodologies between the cost engineering functions in NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and ESA European Space Research and Technology Centre (ESTEC), as well as to set-up cost engineering capabilities for future manned Mars projects and other studies which involve similar subsystem technologies in MSFC and ESTEC, a demonstration cost estimate exercise was organized. This exercise was a direct way of enhancing not only cooperation between agencies but also both agencies commitment to credible cost analyses. Cost engineers in MSFC and ESTEC independently prepared life-cycle cost estimates for a reference human Mars project and subsequently compared the results and estimate methods in detail. As a non-sensitive, public domain reference case for human Mars projects, the Mars Direct concept was chosen. In this paper the results of the exercise are shown; the differences and similarities in estimate methodologies, philosophies, and databases between MSFC and ESTEC, as well as the estimate results for the Mars Direct concept. The most significant differences are explained and possible estimate improvements identified. In addition, the Mars Direct plan and the extensive cost breakdown structure jointly set-up by MSFC and ESTEC for this concept are presented. It was found that NASA applied estimate models mainly based on historic Apollo and Space Shuttle cost data, taking into account the changes in technology since then. ESA used models mostly based on European satellite and launcher cost data, taking into account the higher equipment and testing standards for human space flight. Most of NASA's and ESA s estimates for the Mars Direct case are comparable, but there are some important, consistent differences in the estimates for: 1) Large Structures and Thermal Control subsystems; 2) System Level Management, Engineering, Product Assurance and Assembly, Integration and Test/Verification activities; 3) Mission Control; 4) Space Agency Program Level

  10. Regression model, artificial neural network, and cost estimation for biosorption of Ni(II)-ions from aqueous solutions by Potamogeton pectinatus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fawzy, Manal; Nasr, Mahmoud; Adel, Samar; Helmi, Shacker

    2018-03-21

    This study investigated the application of Potamogeton pectinatus for Ni(II)-ions biosorption from aqueous solutions. FTIR spectra showed that the functional groups of -OH, C-H, -C = O, and -COO- could form an organometallic complex with Ni(II)-ions on the biomaterial surface. SEM/EDX analysis indicated that the voids on the biosorbent surface were blocked due to Ni(II)-ions uptake via an ion exchange mechanism. For Ni(II)-ions of 50 mg/L, the adsorption efficiency recorded 63.4% at pH: 5, biosorbent dosage: 10 g/L, and particle-diameter: 0.125-0.25 mm within 180 minutes. A quadratic model depicted that the plot of removal efficiency against pH or contact time caused quadratic-linear concave up curves, whereas the curve of initial Ni(II)-ions was quadratic-linear convex down. Artificial neural network with a structure of 5 - 6 - 1 was able to predict the adsorption efficiency (R 2 : 0.967). The relative importance of inputs was: initial Ni(II)-ions > pH > contact time > biosorbent dosage > particle-size. Freundlich isotherm described well the adsorption mechanism (R 2 : 0.974), which indicated a multilayer adsorption onto energetically heterogeneous surfaces. The net cost of using P. pectinatus for the removal of Ni(II)-ions (4.25 ± 1.26 mg/L) from real industrial effluents within 30 minutes was 3.4 $USD/m 3 .

  11. Modeling of Control Costs, Emissions, and Control Retrofits for Cost Effectiveness and Feasibility Analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Learn about EPA’s use of the Integrated Planning Model (IPM) to develop estimates of SO2 and NOx emission control costs, projections of futureemissions, and projections of capacity of future control retrofits, assuming controls on EGUs.

  12. Probabilistic markov model estimating cost effectiveness of methylphenidate osmotic-release oral system versus immediate-release methylphenidate in children and adolescents: Which information is needed?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S.J. Schawo (Saskia); A. van der Kolk (Annemarie); C.A.M. Bouwmans-Frijters (Clazien); L. Annemans (Lieven); M.J. Postma (Maarten); J.K. Buitelaar (Jan); M. van Agthoven (Michel); L. van Hakkaart-van Roijen (Leona)

    2015-01-01

    textabstractBackground: Incidence of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in children and adolescents has been increasing. The disorder results in high societal costs. Policymakers increasingly use health economic evaluations to inform decisions on competing treatments of ADHD. Yet,

  13. Probabilistic Markov Model Estimating Cost Effectiveness of Methylphenidate Osmotic-Release Oral System Versus Immediate-Release Methylphenidate in Children and Adolescents : Which Information is Needed?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schawo, Saskia; van der Kolk, Annemarie; Bouwmans, Clazien; Annemans, Lieven; Postma, Maarten; Buitelaar, Jan; van Agthoven, Michel; Hakkaart-van Roijen, Leona

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Incidence of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in children and adolescents has been increasing. The disorder results in high societal costs. Policymakers increasingly use health economic evaluations to inform decisions on competing treatments of ADHD. Yet, health economic

  14. Probabilistic Markov Model Estimating Cost Effectiveness of Methylphenidate Osmotic-Release Oral System Versus Immediate-Release Methylphenidate in Children and Adolescents: Which Information is Needed?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S.J. Schawo (Saskia); A. van der Kolk (Annemarie); C.A.M. Bouwmans-Frijters (Clazien); L. Annemans (Lieven); M.J. Postma (Maarten); J.K. Buitelaar (Jan); M. van Agthoven (Michel); L. van Hakkaart-van Roijen (Leona)

    2015-01-01

    markdownabstract__Abstract__ Background: Incidence of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in children and adolescents has been increasing. The disorder results in high societal costs. Policymakers increasingly use health economic evaluations to inform decisions on competing treatments

  15. Probabilistic Markov Model Estimating Cost Effectiveness of Methylphenidate Osmotic-Release Oral System Versus Immediate-Release Methylphenidate in Children and Adolescents: Which Information is Needed?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schawo, S.; Kolk, A. van der; Bouwmans, C.; Annemans, L.; Postma, M.; Buitelaar, J.K.; Agthoven, M. van; Hakkaart-van Roijen, L.

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Incidence of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in children and adolescents has been increasing. The disorder results in high societal costs. Policymakers increasingly use health economic evaluations to inform decisions on competing treatments of ADHD. Yet, health economic

  16. Cost estimation of interim dry storage for Atucha I NPP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bergallo, Juan E.; Fuenzalida Troyano, Carlos S.

    2007-01-01

    A joint effort between NASA and CNEA has been performed in order to evaluate and fix the strategy of interim spent fuel storage for Atucha I nuclear power plant. In this work the cost estimation on the proposed system was performed in order to fix the parameter and design criteria for the next engineering step. The main results achieved show that both alternatives are all in the same range of costs per unit of mass to be stored, the impact on electricity cost is less than 1 US mills/KWh and the scaling factor achieved is 0.85. (author) [es

  17. Estimation of cost and value of energy from wind turbines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tande, J.O.; Fransden, S.

    1995-01-01

    The International Energy Agency expert group on recommended practices for wind turbine testing and evaluation is finalizing a second edition of the E stimation of cost of energy from wind energy conversion systems . This paper summarizes those recommendations. Further, the value of wind energy in terms of the associated savings is discussed, and a case study is undertaken to illustrate wind energy cost/benefit analyses. The paper concludes that while the recommended practices on cost estimation may be useful in connection with wind energy feasibility studies there is still a need for further international agreement upon guidelines on how to assess wind energy benefits. (author)

  18. Estimating the Cost of Youth Disengagement in New Zealand

    OpenAIRE

    Gail Pacheco; Jessica Dye

    2013-01-01

    Youth exclusion, disengagement, and overall underutilisation in the labour market has short term costs to the economy, as well as long term impacts on society. In this research we project the loss to productivity, measured in foregone wages, and the expected cost to public finances for NZ and Auckland youth aged 15-24 not in employment, education, or training (collectively known as NEET). We estimate the expected per capita cost of each NEET youth in NZ is approximately $26,847 over the next ...

  19. Controlling Campylobacter in the chicken meat chain; Estimation of intervention costs

    OpenAIRE

    Mangen, M.J.J.; Havelaar, A.H.; Poppe, K.J.

    2005-01-01

    Campylobacter infections are a serious public health problem in the Netherlands. As a part of the CARMA project, this study focus on the estimation of the potential direct costs related to the implementation of various intervention measures to control campylobacters in the chicken meat chain. Costs were estimated using a second-order stochastic simulation model. Treating only positively tested flocks is far cheaper than treating all flocks. The implementation of equipment to reduce faecal lea...

  20. Offshore Wind Energy Cost Modeling Installation and Decommissioning

    CERN Document Server

    Kaiser, Mark J

    2012-01-01

    Offshore wind energy is one of the most promising and fastest growing alternative energy sources in the world. Offshore Wind Energy Cost Modeling provides a methodological framework to assess installation and decommissioning costs, and using examples from the European experience, provides a broad review of existing processes and systems used in the offshore wind industry. Offshore Wind Energy Cost Modeling provides a step-by-step guide to modeling costs over four sections. These sections cover: ·Background and introductory material, ·Installation processes and vessel requirements, ·Installation cost estimation, and ·Decommissioning methods and cost estimation.  This self-contained and detailed treatment of the key principles in offshore wind development is supported throughout by visual aids and data tables. Offshore Wind Energy Cost Modeling is a key resource for anyone interested in the offshore wind industry, particularly those interested in the technical and economic aspects of installation and decom...

  1. Cost estimation for decommissioning: a review of current practice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Sullivan, P.; Pescatore, C.

    2009-01-01

    It is now common practice for decommissioning plans and associated cost estimates to be prepared for all nuclear installations. Specific requirements are generally set out in regulations that have their basis in national legislation. These estimates are important for ensuring that the necessary funds are being collected to cover the actual costs of decommissioning the facility. The long time horizon for both amassing and disbursing these funds is a particular concern for national authorities. It is thus important to maintain a realistic estimate of the liabilities involved and to confirm the adequacy of the provisions to discharge them over time. Estimates of decommissioning costs have been performed and published by many organisations for many different purposes and applications. The results often vary because of differences in basic assumptions such as the choice of the decommissioning strategy (immediate vs. deferred), the availability of waste management pathways, the assumed end states of installations, the detailed definition of cost items, technical uncertainties, unforeseen events, the evolution of regulation and requirements. Many of these differences may be unavoidable since a reasonable degree of reliability and accuracy can only be achieved by developing decommissioning cost estimates on a case-by-case, site-specific basis. Moreover, even if considerable efforts are made to obtain reliable estimates, unforeseen events may cause estimates to go wrong. The issue of how to deal with uncertainties is therefore an important one, leading in turn to the need for risk management in terms of making adequate funding provisions. In March 2008, a questionnaire was circulated among the organisations participating in the NEA Decommissioning and Cost Estimation Group (DCEG). Information was collected on legal requirements and the responsibilities of the main parties concerned with the preparation and oversight of cost estimates, the main cost elements and associated

  2. The Hospitalization Costs of Diabetes and Hypertension Complications in Zimbabwe: Estimations and Correlations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mutsa P. Mutowo

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. Treating complications associated with diabetes and hypertension imposes significant costs on health care systems. This study estimated the hospitalization costs for inpatients in a public hospital in Zimbabwe. Methods. The study was retrospective and utilized secondary data from medical records. Total hospitalization costs were estimated using generalized linear models. Results. The median cost and interquartile range (IQR for patients with diabetes, $994 (385–1553 mean $1319 (95% CI: 981–1657, was higher than patients with hypertension, $759 (494–1147 mean $914 (95% CI: 825–1003. Female patients aged below 65 years with diabetes had the highest estimated mean costs ($1467 (95% CI: 1177–1828. Wound care had the highest estimated mean cost of all procedures, $2884 (95% CI: 2004–4149 for patients with diabetes and $2239 (95% CI: 1589–3156 for patients with hypertension. Age below 65 years, medical procedures (amputation, wound care, dialysis, and physiotherapy, the presence of two or more comorbidities, and being prescribed two or more drugs were associated with significantly higher hospitalization costs. Conclusion. Our estimated costs could be used to evaluate and improve current inpatient treatment and management of patients with diabetes and hypertension and determine the most cost-effective interventions to prevent complications and comorbidities.

  3. Health Care Analysis for the MCRMC Insurance Cost Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-06-01

    incentive to reduce utilization  Subsidy to leave TRICARE and use other private health insurance  Increases in TRICARE premiums and co-pays  This...analysis develops the estimated cost of providing health care through a premium -based insurance model consistent with an employer-sponsored benefit...State  Income  Plan premium data  Contract cost data 22 May 2015 9 Agenda  Overview  Background  Data  Insurance Cost Estimate Methodology

  4. NASA Air Force Cost Model (NAFCOM): Capabilities and Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    McAfee, Julie; Culver, George; Naderi, Mahmoud

    2011-01-01

    NAFCOM is a parametric estimating tool for space hardware. Uses cost estimating relationships (CERs) which correlate historical costs to mission characteristics to predict new project costs. It is based on historical NASA and Air Force space projects. It is intended to be used in the very early phases of a development project. NAFCOM can be used at the subsystem or component levels and estimates development and production costs. NAFCOM is applicable to various types of missions (crewed spacecraft, uncrewed spacecraft, and launch vehicles). There are two versions of the model: a government version that is restricted and a contractor releasable version.

  5. Preliminary Cost Estimates for Nuclear Hydrogen Production: HTSE System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, K. J.; Lee, K. Y.; Lee, T. H.

    2008-01-01

    KAERI is now focusing on the research and development of the key technologies required for the design and realization of a nuclear hydrogen production system. As a preliminary study of cost estimates for nuclear hydrogen systems, the hydrogen production costs of the nuclear energy sources benchmarking GTMHR and PBMR are estimated in the necessary input data on a Korean specific basis. G4-ECONS was appropriately modified to calculate the cost for hydrogen production of HTSE (High Temperature Steam Electrolysis) process with VHTR (Very High Temperature nuclear Reactor) as a thermal energy source. The estimated costs presented in this paper show that hydrogen production by the VHTR could be competitive with current techniques of hydrogen production from fossil fuels if CO 2 capture and sequestration is required. Nuclear production of hydrogen would allow large-scale production of hydrogen at economic prices while avoiding the release of CO 2 . Nuclear production of hydrogen could thus become the enabling technology for the hydrogen economy. The major factors that would affect the cost of hydrogen were also discussed

  6. Stochastic Estimation of Cost Frontier: Evidence from Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mamun, Shamsul Arifeen Khan

    2012-01-01

    In the literature of higher education cost function study, enough knowledge is created in the area of economy scale in the context of developed countries but the knowledge of input demand is lacking. On the other hand, empirical knowledge in the context of developing countries is very meagre. The paper fills up the knowledge gap, estimating a…

  7. A Semantics-Based Approach to Construction Cost Estimating

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niknam, Mehrdad

    2015-01-01

    A construction project requires collaboration of different organizations such as owner, designer, contractor, and resource suppliers. These organizations need to exchange information to improve their teamwork. Understanding the information created in other organizations requires specialized human resources. Construction cost estimating is one of…

  8. An Application of Data Mining Algorithms for Shipbuilding Cost Estimation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kaluzny, B.L.; Barbici, S.; Berg, G.; Chiomento, R.; Derpanis,D.; Jonsson, U.; Shaw, R.H.A.D.; Smit, M.C.; Ramaroson, F.

    2011-01-01

    This article presents a novel application of known data mining algorithms to the problem of estimating the cost of ship development and construction. The work is a product of North Atlantic Treaty Organization Research and Technology Organization Systems Analysis and Studies 076 Task Group “NATO

  9. Cost Estimation for Cross-organizational ERP Projects: Research Perspectives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Daneva, Maia; Bieman, J.; Wieringa, Roelf J.

    There are many methods for estimating size, effort, schedule and other cost aspects of IS projects, but only one specifically developed for Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) [67] and none for simultaneous, interdependent ERP projects in a cross-organizational context. The objective of this paper is

  10. Estimating the opportunity costs of bed-days.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandmann, Frank G; Robotham, Julie V; Deeny, Sarah R; Edmunds, W John; Jit, Mark

    2018-03-01

    Opportunity costs of bed-days are fundamental to understanding the value of healthcare systems. They greatly influence burden of disease estimations and economic evaluations involving stays in healthcare facilities. However, different estimation techniques employ assumptions that differ crucially in whether to consider the value of the second-best alternative use forgone, of any available alternative use, or the value of the actually chosen alternative. Informed by economic theory, this paper provides a taxonomic framework of methodologies for estimating the opportunity costs of resources. This taxonomy is then applied to bed-days by classifying existing approaches accordingly. We highlight differences in valuation between approaches and the perspective adopted, and we use our framework to appraise the assumptions and biases underlying the standard approaches that have been widely adopted mostly unquestioned in the past, such as the conventional use of reference costs and administrative accounting data. Drawing on these findings, we present a novel approach for estimating the opportunity costs of bed-days in terms of health forgone for the second-best patient, but expressed monetarily. This alternative approach effectively re-connects to the concept of choice and explicitly considers net benefits. It is broadly applicable across settings and for other resources besides bed-days. © 2017 The Authors Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Application of Boosting Regression Trees to Preliminary Cost Estimation in Building Construction Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoonseok Shin

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Among the recent data mining techniques available, the boosting approach has attracted a great deal of attention because of its effective learning algorithm and strong boundaries in terms of its generalization performance. However, the boosting approach has yet to be used in regression problems within the construction domain, including cost estimations, but has been actively utilized in other domains. Therefore, a boosting regression tree (BRT is applied to cost estimations at the early stage of a construction project to examine the applicability of the boosting approach to a regression problem within the construction domain. To evaluate the performance of the BRT model, its performance was compared with that of a neural network (NN model, which has been proven to have a high performance in cost estimation domains. The BRT model has shown results similar to those of NN model using 234 actual cost datasets of a building construction project. In addition, the BRT model can provide additional information such as the importance plot and structure model, which can support estimators in comprehending the decision making process. Consequently, the boosting approach has potential applicability in preliminary cost estimations in a building construction project.

  12. Implementing a trustworthy cost-accounting model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spence, Jay; Seargeant, Dan

    2015-03-01

    Hospitals and health systems can develop an effective cost-accounting model and maximize the effectiveness of their cost-accounting teams by focusing on six key areas: Implementing an enhanced data model. Reconciling data efficiently. Accommodating multiple cost-modeling techniques. Improving transparency of cost allocations. Securing department manager participation. Providing essential education and training to staff members and stakeholders.

  13. Estimating the extra cost of living with disability in Vietnam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minh, Hoang Van; Giang, Kim Bao; Liem, Nguyen Thanh; Palmer, Michael; Thao, Nguyen Phuong; Duong, Le Bach

    2015-01-01

    Disability is shown to be both a cause and a consequence of poverty. However, relatively little research has investigated the economic cost of living with a disability. This study reports the results of a study on the extra cost of living with disability in Vietnam in 2011. The study was carried out in eight cities/provinces in Vietnam, including Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh cities (two major metropolitan in Vietnam) and six provinces from each of the six socio-economic regions in Vietnam. Costs are estimated using the standard of living approach whereby the difference in incomes between people with disability and those without disability for a given standard of living serves as a proxy for the cost of living with disability. The extra cost of living with disability in Vietnam accounted for about 8.8-9.5% of annual household income, or valued about US$200-218. Communication difficulty was shown to result in highest additional cost of living with disability and self-care difficulty was shown to lead to the lowest levels of extra of living cost. The extra cost of living with disability increased as people had more severe impairment. Interventions to promote the economic security of livelihood for people with disabilities are needed.

  14. Optimal replacement time estimation for machines and equipment based on cost function

    OpenAIRE

    J. Šebo; J. Buša; P. Demeč; J. Svetlík

    2013-01-01

    The article deals with a multidisciplinary issue of estimating the optimal replacement time for the machines. Considered categories of machines, for which the optimization method is usable, are of the metallurgical and engineering production. Different models of cost function are considered (both with one and two variables). Parameters of the models were calculated through the least squares method. Models testing show that all are good enough, so for estimation of optimal replacement time is ...

  15. Hospital costs estimation and prediction as a function of patient and admission characteristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramiarina, Robert; Almeida, Renan Mvr; Pereira, Wagner Ca

    2008-01-01

    The present work analyzed the association between hospital costs and patient admission characteristics in a general public hospital in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The unit costs method was used to estimate inpatient day costs associated to specific hospital clinics. With this aim, three "cost centers" were defined in order to group direct and indirect expenses pertaining to the clinics. After the costs were estimated, a standard linear regression model was developed for correlating cost units and their putative predictors (the patients gender and age, the admission type (urgency/elective), ICU admission (yes/no), blood transfusion (yes/no), the admission outcome (death/no death), the complexity of the medical procedures performed, and a risk-adjustment index). Data were collected for 3100 patients, January 2001-January 2003. Average inpatient costs across clinics ranged from (US$) 1135 [Orthopedics] to 3101 [Cardiology]. Costs increased according to increases in the risk-adjustment index in all clinics, and the index was statistically significant in all clinics except Urology, General surgery, and Clinical medicine. The occupation rate was inversely correlated to costs, and age had no association with costs. The (adjusted) per cent of explained variance varied between 36.3% [Clinical medicine] and 55.1% [Thoracic surgery clinic]. The estimates are an important step towards the standardization of hospital costs calculation, especially for countries that lack formal hospital accounting systems.

  16. Estimating direct and indirect costs of premenstrual syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borenstein, Jeff; Chiou, Chiun-Fang; Dean, Bonnie; Wong, John; Wade, Sally

    2005-01-01

    To quantify the economic impact of premenstrual syndrome (PMS) on the employer. Data were collected from 374 women aged 18-45 with regular menses. Direct costs were quantified using administrative claims of these patients and the Medicare Fee Schedule. Indirect costs were quantified by both self-reported days of work missed and lost productivity at work. Regression analyses were used to develop a model to project PMS-related direct and indirect costs. A total of 29.6% (n = 111) of the participants were diagnosed with PMS. A PMS diagnosis was associated with an average annual increase of $59 in direct costs (P increase in direct medical costs and a large increase in indirect costs.

  17. Bus Lifecycle Cost Model for Federal Land Management Agencies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-30

    The Bus Lifecycle Cost Model is a spreadsheet-based planning tool that estimates capital, operating, and maintenance costs for various bus types over the full lifecycle of the vehicle. The model is based on a number of operating characteristics, incl...

  18. An Environmentally Oriented Constructive Cost Model In Information ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A model was designed to assist software developers in Nigeria to estimate software effort, duration and cost as a result of the difficulties in understanding the parameters of the traditional Constructive Cost Model II (COCOMO II) , which was designed for a specif ic environment, using Source Lines of Code (SLOC) . Results ...

  19. The ASAC Flight Segment and Network Cost Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, Bruce J.; Lee, David A.; Retina, Nusrat; Wingrove, Earl R., III; Malone, Brett; Hall, Stephen G.; Houser, Scott A.

    1997-01-01

    To assist NASA in identifying research art, with the greatest potential for improving the air transportation system, two models were developed as part of its Aviation System Analysis Capability (ASAC). The ASAC Flight Segment Cost Model (FSCM) is used to predict aircraft trajectories, resource consumption, and variable operating costs for one or more flight segments. The Network Cost Model can either summarize the costs for a network of flight segments processed by the FSCM or can be used to independently estimate the variable operating costs of flying a fleet of equipment given the number of departures and average flight stage lengths.

  20. Cost Estimating in DoD: Current Status, Trends, and What the Future Holds

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Nussbaum, Daniel A

    2005-01-01

    (1) Current Status: Baseline analysis of current cost estimating community, including which organizations are responsible for developing and reviewing cost estimates, how many personnel there are, what...

  1. Cost of Equity Estimation in Fuel and Energy Sector Companies Based on CAPM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozieł, Diana; Pawłowski, Stanisław; Kustra, Arkadiusz

    2018-03-01

    The article presents cost of equity estimation of capital groups from the fuel and energy sector, listed at the Warsaw Stock Exchange, based on the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). The objective of the article was to perform a valuation of equity with the application of CAPM, based on actual financial data and stock exchange data and to carry out a sensitivity analysis of such cost, depending on the financing structure of the entity. The objective of the article formulated in this manner has determined its' structure. It focuses on presentation of substantive analyses related to the core of equity and methods of estimating its' costs, with special attention given to the CAPM. In the practical section, estimation of cost was performed according to the CAPM methodology, based on the example of leading fuel and energy companies, such as Tauron GE and PGE. Simultaneously, sensitivity analysis of such cost was performed depending on the structure of financing the company's operation.

  2. 2002 IDA Cost Research Symposium: Estimating the Costs of Transforming U.S. Military Forces

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-08-01

    Missile Database Improvements • ACEIT Enhancements VIII-5 6I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e Capability to Cost...systems • Expand CERs • Create interface to download to CO$STAT for CER development • Extract CERs and move them into ACEIT • Supports: Conventional...Cost Model MDA–5 Integrating MDA Cost Risk Model with ACEIT MDA–6 Target Common Cost Model MDA–7 Deployable Optics Development and Manufacturing MDA

  3. Latest NASA Instrument Cost Model (NICM): Version VI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mrozinski, Joe; Habib-Agahi, Hamid; Fox, George; Ball, Gary

    2014-01-01

    The NASA Instrument Cost Model, NICM, is a suite of tools which allow for probabilistic cost estimation of NASA's space-flight instruments at both the system and subsystem level. NICM also includes the ability to perform cost by analogy as well as joint confidence level (JCL) analysis. The latest version of NICM, Version VI, was released in Spring 2014. This paper will focus on the new features released with NICM VI, which include: 1) The NICM-E cost estimating relationship, which is applicable for instruments flying on Explorer-like class missions; 2) The new cluster analysis ability which, alongside the results of the parametric cost estimation for the user's instrument, also provides a visualization of the user's instrument's similarity to previously flown instruments; and 3) includes new cost estimating relationships for in-situ instruments.

  4. A non-stationary cost-benefit based bivariate extreme flood estimation approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Wei; Liu, Junguo

    2018-02-01

    Cost-benefit analysis and flood frequency analysis have been integrated into a comprehensive framework to estimate cost effective design values. However, previous cost-benefit based extreme flood estimation is based on stationary assumptions and analyze dependent flood variables separately. A Non-Stationary Cost-Benefit based bivariate design flood estimation (NSCOBE) approach is developed in this study to investigate influence of non-stationarities in both the dependence of flood variables and the marginal distributions on extreme flood estimation. The dependence is modeled utilizing copula functions. Previous design flood selection criteria are not suitable for NSCOBE since they ignore time changing dependence of flood variables. Therefore, a risk calculation approach is proposed based on non-stationarities in both marginal probability distributions and copula functions. A case study with 54-year observed data is utilized to illustrate the application of NSCOBE. Results show NSCOBE can effectively integrate non-stationarities in both copula functions and marginal distributions into cost-benefit based design flood estimation. It is also found that there is a trade-off between maximum probability of exceedance calculated from copula functions and marginal distributions. This study for the first time provides a new approach towards a better understanding of influence of non-stationarities in both copula functions and marginal distributions on extreme flood estimation, and could be beneficial to cost-benefit based non-stationary bivariate design flood estimation across the world.

  5. Construction cost forecast model : model documentation and technical notes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-01

    Construction cost indices are generally estimated with Laspeyres, Paasche, or Fisher indices that allow changes : in the quantities of construction bid items, as well as changes in price to change the cost indices of those items. : These cost indices...

  6. An Analysis of the RCA Price-S Cost Estimation Model as it Relates to Current Air Force Computer Software Acquisition and Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1979-12-01

    because of the use of complex computational algorithms (Ref 25). Another important factor effecting the cost of soft- ware is the size of the development...involved the alignment and navigational algorithm portions of the software. The second avionics system application was the development of an inertial...001 1 COAT CONL CREA CINT CMAT CSTR COPR CAPP New Code .001 .001 .001 .001 1001 ,OO .00 Device TDAT T03NL TREA TINT Types o * Quantity OGAT OONL OREA

  7. Cost Estimates for the Decontamination and Decommissioning of Eight ORNL Buildings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hogan, M.

    2006-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy's Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) contains a number of buildings that are antiquated and no longer used. These buildings historically were used for the production of atomic weapons and often remain contaminated with radioactive materials. Certain costs and risks are associated with the long-term stewardship of the buildings. One way to reduce these liabilities is to eliminate the buildings that are no longer in use and are not expected to be used in the future. Some of these buildings at ORNL are located in an area known as 'Isotope Circle'. From this area, eight buildings that are expected to be decontaminated and decommissioned (D and D) in the next five to ten years were chosen to have cost estimates completed. The specific facilities are Buildings 3030, 3031, 3118, 3032, 3033, 3033 Annex, 3034, and 3093. There are many challenges for estimating the costs to D and D buildings potentially contaminated with radionuclides. Each building is unique, has various types and levels of contamination, and (as in this case) often lacks up-to-date information. Because of these limitations, order-of- magnitude cost estimates for each of the eight ORNL buildings were completed using parametric cost modeling software known as RACER TM (Remedial Action Cost Engineering and Requirements System). This type of cost estimate is useful for screening technical concepts and is used for budgetary planning. For the eight buildings evaluated in this study, the total cost to D and D was estimated to be nearly $6 M. This value includes the direct cost of approximately $3.5 M to complete D and D and $2.5 M in cost markups. Also, assuming the actual project does not begin until the year 2010, this total cost is escalated to almost $6.7 M, which accounts for expected inflation. Although the cost estimates in this study were expected to have a wide range in accuracy, there are various factors that could impact these estimates in a negative or positive fashion

  8. A REVIEW OF ESTIMATION OF SOFTWARE PRODUCTS DEVELOPMENT COSTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edin Osmanbegović

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In the modern business and management of business processes, the standardization of procedures allows the creation of added value, increasing competitiveness and success in the business of an organization. Evaluation of the budget for software development is crucial to the success of an IT project, because the inability to make a realistic assessment leads to inadequate project plans, customer dissatisfaction, poor quality of software products, and reduced profits. In order to minimize such situations, making accurate and reliable software cost estimation should be carried out at all stages of the project life cycle. Although hundreds of research articles focusing on the application of different methods of budget estimates of the software product have been published so far, there is no comprehensive review of the current situation or review of research trends in the budget estimates of the software product. This paper aims to create a framework for estimation of costs of development of software products by providing an overview of the most influential researchers, the most influential articles published in the WoS database, the most used keywords for searching the articles, as well as a review of the estimation techniques used in budget estimates of the software product.

  9. Estimating the Economic Impact of Adding Panobinostat to a U.S. Formulary for Relapsed and/or Refractory Multiple Myeloma: A Budget Impact and Cost-Benefit Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bloudek, Lisa; Roy, Anuja; Kish, Jonathan K; Siegel, David S; Jagannath, Sundar; Globe, Denise; Orloski, Laurie; Kuriakose, Emil T

    2016-08-01

    Multiple myeloma is an incurable B-cell malignancy with a natural history that involves alternating periods of remission and subsequent relapse. For relapsed and/or refractory multiple myeloma (RRMM), the typical patient currently receives more lines of therapy than has been feasible in the past, translating into longer progression-free survival (PFS). Consequently, cost issues have become more prominent because patients may be offered newer and more expensive therapies during a more prolonged overall treatment course. To estimate the economic impact of adding panobinostat to a U.S. health plan formulary as a treatment option with bortezomib and dexamethasone for patients with RRMM previously treated with a proteasome inhibitor (PI) and immunomodulatory drug (IMiD), using a budget impact and cost-benefit model. Total costs of commonly used salvage therapy regimens were combined with market share data and population prevalence estimates of RRMM to yield the total cost of treatment, from the perspective of a U.S. third-party payer (commercial or Medicare) with a time horizon of 1 year. Comparator treatment regimens included bortezomib-dexamethasone, lenalidomide-dexamethasone, lenalidomide-bortezomib-dexamethasone, carfilzomib monotherapy, carfilzomib-lenalidomide-dexamethasone, and pomalidomide-dexamethasone. Costs (2015 U.S. dollars) included drug costs for oral oncology agents, medical and administration costs for injectable oncology agents, costs of adverse event (AE) prophylaxis and monitoring, and costs of grade 3/4 AEs. In a hypothetical health plan with 1 million members, the annual number of RRMM patients with previous PI and IMiD treatments was estimated at 16 and 118 for a commercial and Medicare plan, respectively. Introduction of panobinostat as part of the panobinostat-bortezomib-dexamethasone regimen was not expected to result in a substantial budget impact to either commercial or Medicare plans, with an incremental cost money. Funding for this study

  10. Estimation of Damage Costs Associated with Flood Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrews, T. A.; Wauthier, C.; Zipp, K.

    2017-12-01

    This study investigates the possibility of creating a mathematical function that enables the estimation of flood-damage costs. We begin by examining the costs associated with past flood events in the United States. The data on these tropical storms and hurricanes are provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. With the location, extent of flooding, and damage reparation costs identified, we analyze variables such as: number of inches rained, land elevation, type of landscape, region development in regards to building density and infrastructure, and population concentration. We seek to identify the leading drivers of high flood-damage costs and understand which variables play a large role in the costliness of these weather events. Upon completion of our mathematical analysis, we turn out attention to the 2017 natural disaster of Texas. We divide the region, as we did above, by land elevation, type of landscape, region development in regards to building density and infrastructure, and population concentration. Then, we overlay the number of inches rained in those regions onto the divided landscape and apply our function. We hope to use these findings to estimate the potential flood-damage costs of Hurricane Harvey. This information is then transformed into a hazard map that could provide citizens and businesses of flood-stricken zones additional resources for their insurance selection process.

  11. The relationship between cost estimates reliability and BIM adoption: SEM analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail, N. A. A.; Idris, N. H.; Ramli, H.; Rooshdi, R. R. Raja Muhammad; Sahamir, S. R.

    2018-02-01

    This paper presents the usage of Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) approach in analysing the effects of Building Information Modelling (BIM) technology adoption in improving the reliability of cost estimates. Based on the questionnaire survey results, SEM analysis using SPSS-AMOS application examined the relationships between BIM-improved information and cost estimates reliability factors, leading to BIM technology adoption. Six hypotheses were established prior to SEM analysis employing two types of SEM models, namely the Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) model and full structural model. The SEM models were then validated through the assessment on their uni-dimensionality, validity, reliability, and fitness index, in line with the hypotheses tested. The final SEM model fit measures are: P-value=0.000, RMSEA=0.0790.90, TLI=0.956>0.90, NFI=0.935>0.90 and ChiSq/df=2.259; indicating that the overall index values achieved the required level of model fitness. The model supports all the hypotheses evaluated, confirming that all relationship exists amongst the constructs are positive and significant. Ultimately, the analysis verified that most of the respondents foresee better understanding of project input information through BIM visualization, its reliable database and coordinated data, in developing more reliable cost estimates. They also perceive to accelerate their cost estimating task through BIM adoption.

  12. Time-driven activity-based costing to estimate cost of care at multidisciplinary aerodigestive centers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, Jordan A; Mistry, Bipin; Hardy, Stephen; Fracchia, Mary Shannon; Hersh, Cheryl; Wentland, Carissa; Vadakekalam, Joseph; Kaplan, Robert; Hartnick, Christopher J

    2017-09-01

    Providing high-value healthcare to patients is increasingly becoming an objective for providers including those at multidisciplinary aerodigestive centers. Measuring value has two components: 1) identify relevant health outcomes and 2) determine relevant treatment costs. Via their inherent structure, multidisciplinary care units consolidate care for complex patients. However, their potential impact on decreasing healthcare costs is less clear. The goal of this study was to estimate the potential cost savings of treating patients with laryngeal clefts at multidisciplinary aerodigestive centers. Retrospective chart review. Time-driven activity-based costing was used to estimate the cost of care for patients with laryngeal cleft seen between 2008 and 2013 at the Massachusetts Eye and Ear Infirmary Pediatric Aerodigestive Center. Retrospective chart review was performed to identify clinic utilization by patients as well as patient diet outcomes after treatment. Patients were stratified into neurologically complex and neurologically noncomplex groups. The cost of care for patients requiring surgical intervention was five and three times as expensive of the cost of care for patients not requiring surgery for neurologically noncomplex and complex patients, respectively. Following treatment, 50% and 55% of complex and noncomplex patients returned to normal diet, whereas 83% and 87% of patients experienced improved diets, respectively. Additionally, multidisciplinary team-based care for children with laryngeal clefts potentially achieves 20% to 40% cost savings. These findings demonstrate how time-driven activity-based costing can be used to estimate and compare patient costs in multidisciplinary aerodigestive centers. 2c. Laryngoscope, 127:2152-2158, 2017. © 2017 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

  13. ICPP calcined solids storage facility closure study. Volume II: Cost estimates, planning schedules, yearly cost flowcharts, and life-cycle cost estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-02-01

    This document contains Volume II of the Closure Study for the Idaho Chemical Processing Plant Calcined Solids Storage Facility. This volume contains draft information on cost estimates, planning schedules, yearly cost flowcharts, and life-cycle costs for the four options described in Volume I: (1) Risk-Based Clean Closure; NRC Class C fill, (2) Risk-Based Clean Closure; Clean fill, (3) Closure to landfill Standards; NRC Class C fill, and (4) Closure to Landfill Standards; Clean fill.

  14. ICPP calcined solids storage facility closure study. Volume II: Cost estimates, planning schedules, yearly cost flowcharts, and life-cycle cost estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-02-01

    This document contains Volume II of the Closure Study for the Idaho Chemical Processing Plant Calcined Solids Storage Facility. This volume contains draft information on cost estimates, planning schedules, yearly cost flowcharts, and life-cycle costs for the four options described in Volume I: (1) Risk-Based Clean Closure; NRC Class C fill, (2) Risk-Based Clean Closure; Clean fill, (3) Closure to landfill Standards; NRC Class C fill, and (4) Closure to Landfill Standards; Clean fill

  15. Cost estimate of Olkiluoto disposal facility for spent nuclear fuel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kukkola, T.; Saanio, T.

    2005-03-01

    The cost estimate covers the underground rock characterisation facility ONKALO, the investment and the operating costs of the above and underground facilities, the decommissioning of the encapsulation plant and the closure costs of the repository. The above ground facility is a once-investment; a re-investment takes place after 37 years operation. The repository is extended stepwise thus also the investment take place in stages. Annual operating costs are calculated with different operating efficiencies. The total investment costs of the disposal facility are estimated to be 503 M euro (Million Euros), the total operating costs are 1,923 M euro and the decommissioning and the closure costs are 116 M euro totaling 2,542 M euro. The investment costs of the above ground facility are 142 M euro, the operating costs are 1,678 M euro. The repository investment costs are 360 M euro and the operating costs are 245 M euro. The decommissioning costs are 7 M euro and the closure costs are 109 M euro. The costs are calculated by using the price level of December 2003. The cost estimate is based on a plan, where the spent fuel is encapsulated and the disposal canisters are disposed into the bedrock at a depth of about 420 meters in one storey. In the encapsulation process, the fuel assemblies are closed into composite canisters, in which the inner part of the canister is made of nodular cast iron and the outer wall of copper having a thickness of 50 mm. The inner canister is closed gas-tight by a bolted steel lid, and the electron beam welding method is used to close the outer copper lid. The encapsulation plant is independent and located above the deep repository spaces. The disposal canisters are transported to the repository by the lift. The disposal tunnels are constructed and closed in stages according the disposal canisters disposal. The operating time of the Loviisa nuclear power plant units is assumed to be 50 years and the operating time of the Olkiluoto nuclear power

  16. A Project Management Approach to Using Simulation for Cost Estimation on Large, Complex Software Development Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mizell, Carolyn; Malone, Linda

    2007-01-01

    It is very difficult for project managers to develop accurate cost and schedule estimates for large, complex software development projects. None of the approaches or tools available today can estimate the true cost of software with any high degree of accuracy early in a project. This paper provides an approach that utilizes a software development process simulation model that considers and conveys the level of uncertainty that exists when developing an initial estimate. A NASA project will be analyzed using simulation and data from the Software Engineering Laboratory to show the benefits of such an approach.

  17. Maintenance cost models in deregulated power systems under opportunity costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Arfaj, K.; Dahal, K.; Azaiez, M.N.

    2007-01-01

    In a centralized power system, the operator is responsible for scheduling maintenance. There are different types of maintenance, including corrective maintenance; predictive maintenance; preventive maintenance; and reliability-centred maintenance. The main cause of power failures is poor maintenance. As such, maintenance costs play a significant role in deregulated power systems. They include direct costs associated with material and labor costs as well as indirect costs associated with spare parts inventory, shipment, test equipment, indirect labor, opportunity costs and cost of failure. In maintenance scheduling and planning, the cost function is the only component of the objective function. This paper presented the results of a study in which different components of maintenance costs were modeled. The maintenance models were formulated as an optimization problem with single and multiple objectives and a set of constraints. The maintenance costs models could be used to schedule the maintenance activities of power generators more accurately and to identify the best maintenance strategies over a period of time as they consider failure and opportunity costs in a deregulated environment. 32 refs., 4 tabs., 4 figs

  18. Thermal and nuclear power generation cost estimates using corporate financial statements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuo, Yuhji; Nagatomi, Yu; Murakami, Tomoko

    2012-01-01

    There are two generally accepted methods for estimating power generation costs: so-called 'model plant' method and the method using corporate financial statements. The method using corporate financial statements, though under some constraints, can provide useful information for comparing thermal and nuclear power generation costs. This study used this method for estimating thermal and nuclear power generation costs in Japan for the past five years, finding that the nuclear power generation cost remained stable at around 7 yen per kilowatt-hour (kWh) while the thermal power generation cost moved within a wide range of 9 to 12 yen/kWh in line with wild fluctuations in primary energy prices. The cost of nuclear power generation is expected to increase due to the enhancement of safety measures and accident damage compensation in the future, while there are reactor decommissioning, backend and many other costs that the financial statement-using approach cannot accurately estimate. In the future, efforts should be continued to comprehensively and accurately estimate total costs. (author)

  19. The Effect of Infrastructure Sharing in Estimating Operations Cost of Future Space Transportation Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sundaram, Meenakshi

    2005-01-01

    NASA and the aerospace industry are extremely serious about reducing the cost and improving the performance of launch vehicles both manned or unmanned. In the aerospace industry, sharing infrastructure for manufacturing more than one type spacecraft is becoming a trend to achieve economy of scale. An example is the Boeing Decatur facility where both Delta II and Delta IV launch vehicles are made. The author is not sure how Boeing estimates the costs of each spacecraft made in the same facility. Regardless of how a contractor estimates the cost, NASA in its popular cost estimating tool, NASA Air force Cost Modeling (NAFCOM) has to have a method built in to account for the effect of infrastructure sharing. Since there is no provision in the most recent version of NAFCOM2002 to take care of this, it has been found by the Engineering Cost Community at MSFC that the tool overestimates the manufacturing cost by as much as 30%. Therefore, the objective of this study is to develop a methodology to assess the impact of infrastructure sharing so that better operations cost estimates may be made.

  20. A RECREATION OPTIMIZATION MODEL BASED ON THE TRAVEL COST METHOD

    OpenAIRE

    Hof, John G.; Loomis, John B.

    1983-01-01

    A recreation allocation model is developed which efficiently selects recreation areas and degree of development from an array of proposed and existing sites. The model does this by maximizing the difference between gross recreation benefits and travel, investment, management, and site-opportunity costs. The model presented uses the Travel Cost Method for estimating recreation benefits within an operations research framework. The model is applied to selection of potential wilderness areas in C...

  1. Estimating boiling water reactor decommissioning costs. A user's manual for the BWR Cost Estimating Computer Program (CECP) software: Draft report for comment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bierschbach, M.C.

    1994-12-01

    With the issuance of the Decommissioning Rule (July 27, 1988), nuclear power plant licensees are required to submit to the U.S. Regulatory Commission (NRC) for review, decommissioning plans and cost estimates. This user's manual and the accompanying Cost Estimating Computer Program (CECP) software provide a cost-calculating methodology to the NRC staff that will assist them in assessing the adequacy of the licensee submittals. The CECP, designed to be used on a personal computer, provides estimates for the cost of decommissioning BWR power stations to the point of license termination. Such cost estimates include component, piping, and equipment removal costs; packaging costs; decontamination costs; transportation costs; burial costs; and manpower costs. In addition to costs, the CECP also calculates burial volumes, person-hours, crew-hours, and exposure person-hours associated with decommissioning

  2. Methodology for estimating reprocessing costs for nuclear fuels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carter, W.L.; Rainey, R.H.

    1980-02-01

    A technological and economic evaluation of reprocessing requirements for alternate fuel cycles requires a common assessment method and a common basis to which various cycles can be related. A methodology is described for the assessment of alternate fuel cycles utilizing a side-by-side comparison of functional flow diagrams of major areas of the reprocessing plant with corresponding diagrams of the well-developed Purex process as installed in the Barnwell Nuclear Fuel Plant (BNFP). The BNFP treats 1500 metric tons of uranium per year (MTU/yr). Complexity and capacity factors are determined for adjusting the estimated facility and equipment costs of BNFP to determine the corresponding costs for the alternate fuel cycle. Costs of capacities other than the reference 1500 MT of heavy metal per year are estimated by the use of scaling factors. Unit costs of reprocessed fuel are calculated using a discounted cash flow analysis for three economic bases to show the effect of low-risk, typical, and high-risk financing methods

  3. Cost estimate for a proposed GDF Suez LNG testing program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blanchat, Thomas K.; Brady, Patrick Dennis; Jernigan, Dann A.; Luketa, Anay Josephine; Nissen, Mark R.; Lopez, Carlos; Vermillion, Nancy; Hightower, Marion Michael

    2014-02-01

    At the request of GDF Suez, a Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) cost estimate was prepared for the design, construction, testing, and data analysis for an experimental series of large-scale (Liquefied Natural Gas) LNG spills on land and water that would result in the largest pool fires and vapor dispersion events ever conducted. Due to the expected cost of this large, multi-year program, the authors utilized Sandia's structured cost estimating methodology. This methodology insures that the efforts identified can be performed for the cost proposed at a plus or minus 30 percent confidence. The scale of the LNG spill, fire, and vapor dispersion tests proposed by GDF could produce hazard distances and testing safety issues that need to be fully explored. Based on our evaluations, Sandia can utilize much of our existing fire testing infrastructure for the large fire tests and some small dispersion tests (with some modifications) in Albuquerque, but we propose to develop a new dispersion testing site at our remote test area in Nevada because of the large hazard distances. While this might impact some testing logistics, the safety aspects warrant this approach. In addition, we have included a proposal to study cryogenic liquid spills on water and subsequent vaporization in the presence of waves. Sandia is working with DOE on applications that provide infrastructure pertinent to wave production. We present an approach to conduct repeatable wave/spill interaction testing that could utilize such infrastructure.

  4. 48 CFR 1852.216-74 - Estimated cost and fixed fee.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... and Clauses 1852.216-74 Estimated cost and fixed fee. As prescribed in 1816.307-70(b), insert the following clause: Estimated Cost and Fixed Fee (DEC 1991) The estimated cost of this contract is ______ exclusive of the fixed fee of ______. The total estimated cost and fixed fee is ______. (End of clause) [62...

  5. The economic costs of radiation-induced health effects: Estimation and simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nieves, L.A.; Tawil, J.J.

    1988-08-01

    This effort improves the quantitative information available for use in evaluating actions that alter health risks due to population exposure to ionizing radiation. To project the potential future costs of changes in health effects risks, Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) constructed a probabilistic computer model, Health Effects Costs Model (HECOM), which utilizes the health effect incidence estimates from accident consequences models to calculate the discounted sum of the economic costs associated with population exposure to ionizing radiation. Application of HECOM to value-impact and environmental impact analyses should greatly increase the quality of the information available for regulatory decision making. Three major types of health effects present risks for any population sustaining a significant radiation exposure: acute radiation injuries (and fatalities), latent cancers, and impairments due to genetic effects. The literature pertaining to both incidence and treatment of these health effects was reviewed by PNL and provided the basis for developing economic cost estimates. The economic costs of health effects estimated by HECOM represent both the value of resources consumed in diagnosing, treating, and caring for the patient and the value of goods not produced because of illness or premature death due to the health effect. Additional costs to society, such as pain and suffering, are not included in the PNL economic cost measures since they do not divert resources from other uses, are difficult to quantify, and do not have a value observable in the marketplace. 83 refs., 3 figs., 19 tabs

  6. The economic costs of radiation-induced health effects: Estimation and simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nieves, L.A.; Tawil, J.J.

    1988-08-01

    This effort improves the quantitative information available for use in evaluating actions that alter health risks due to population exposure to ionizing radiation. To project the potential future costs of changes in health effects risks, Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) constructed a probabilistic computer model, Health Effects Costs Model (HECOM), which utilizes the health effect incidence estimates from accident consequences models to calculate the discounted sum of the economic costs associated with population exposure to ionizing radiation. Application of HECOM to value-impact and environmental impact analyses should greatly increase the quality of the information available for regulatory decision making. Three major types of health effects present risks for any population sustaining a significant radiation exposure: acute radiation injuries (and fatalities), latent cancers, and impairments due to genetic effects. The literature pertaining to both incidence and treatment of these health effects was reviewed by PNL and provided the basis for developing economic cost estimates. The economic costs of health effects estimated by HECOM represent both the value of resources consumed in diagnosing, treating, and caring for the patient and the value of goods not produced because of illness or premature death due to the health effect. Additional costs to society, such as pain and suffering, are not included in the PNL economic cost measures since they do not divert resources from other uses, are difficult to quantify, and do not have a value observable in the marketplace. 83 refs., 3 figs., 19 tabs.

  7. A case-based reasoning approach for estimating the costs of pump station projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed M. Marzouk

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available The effective estimation of costs is crucial to the success of construction projects. Cost estimates are used to evaluate, approve and/or fund projects. Organizations use some form of classification system to identify the various types of estimates that may be prepared during the lifecycle of a project. This research presents a parametric-cost model for pump station projects. Fourteen factors have been identified as important to the influence of the cost of pump station projects. A data set that consists of forty-four pump station projects (fifteen water and twenty-nine waste water are collected to build a Case-Based Reasoning (CBR library and to test its performance. The results obtained from the CBR tool are processed and adopted to improve the accuracy of the results. A numerical example is presented to demonstrate the development of the effectiveness of the tool.

  8. Cost estimation of the decommissioning of nuclear fuel cycle plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barbe, A.; Pech, R.

    1991-01-01

    Most studies conducted to date on the cost of decommissioning nuclear facilities pertain to reactors. Few such studies have been performed on the cost of decommissioning nuclear fuel cycle plants, particularly spent fuel reprocessing plants. Present operators of these plants nevertheless need to assess such costs, at least in order to include the related expenses in their short-, medium- or long-term projections. They also need to determine now, for example, suitable production costs that the plant owners will have to propose to their customers. Unlike nuclear reactors for which a series effect is involved (PWRs, BWRs, etc.) and where radioactivity is relatively concentrated, industrial-scale reprocessing plants are large, complex installations for which decommissioning is a long and costly operation that requires a special approach. Faced with this problem, Cogema, the owner and operator of the La Hague and Marcoule reprocessing plants in France, called on SGN to assess the total decommissioning costs for its plants. This assessment led SGN to development by SGN engineers of a novel methodology and a computerized calculation model described below. The resulting methodology and model are applicable to other complex nuclear facilities besides reprocessing plants, such as laboratories and nuclear auxiliaries of reactor cores. (author)

  9. Estimated costs of treatment of benign prostate hyperplasia in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haylton J. Suaid

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: The treatment of benign prostate hyperplasia (BPH presents 2 options: medical or surgical, and there are doubts about what is the best treatment since 80% of patients who undergo surgery become asymptomatic and 10 to 40% of those under medical regimen undergo surgery within a 5 years period. It is difficult to assess the actual costs of treating BPH in Brazil due to several factors, among them regional particularities and the scarcity of current statistical data. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Recently, in the Ribeirão Preto area, São Paulo, Brazil, the IPSS (International Prostatic Symptoms Score and quality of life were verified in 934 volunteers. It was determined the percentage of individuals with ages ranging from 40 to 79 years with moderate symptoms (score 8-19 and with severe symptoms (score 20-35, values for which are indicated medical and surgical treatment, respectively, according to the Brazilian Society of Urology consensus on BPH. Data on Brazilian population in that age range were obtained from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics referent to the year of 2000. It was determined the number of patients, according to the criteria above, subjected to either one of the treatments mentioned. Surgical costs of prostate transurethral resection were researched according to Unified Health System - SUS tables (US$ 173 and of Brazilian Medical Society - AMB with a mean cost in 3 hospitals of US$ 933. Drug costs were calculated by the annual mean price (US$ 355 of 4 alpha-blockers (tamsulosin, alfuzosin, doxazosin and terazosin. RESULTS: The estimated population for medical treatment was 5,397,321 individuals, with a cost corresponding to US$ 1,916,489,055.00. The estimated population for surgical treatment was 2,040,299 men, what would represent a cost of US$ 353,291,204.00 based on the SUS table and of US$ 1,904,279,066.00 based on AMB with hospital expenses included. CONCLUSION: All theses facts induce us to predict

  10. Manufacturing Cost Levelization Model – A User’s Guide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morrow, William R. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Shehabi, Arman [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Smith, Sarah Josephine [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2015-08-01

    The Manufacturing Cost Levelization Model is a cost-performance techno-economic model that estimates total large-scale manufacturing costs for necessary to produce a given product. It is designed to provide production cost estimates for technology researchers to help guide technology research and development towards an eventual cost-effective product. The model presented in this user’s guide is generic and can be tailored to the manufacturing of any product, including the generation of electricity (as a product). This flexibility, however, requires the user to develop the processes and process efficiencies that represents a full-scale manufacturing facility. The generic model is comprised of several modules that estimate variable costs (material, labor, and operating), fixed costs (capital & maintenance), financing structures (debt and equity financing), and tax implications (taxable income after equipment and building depreciation, debt interest payments, and expenses) of a notional manufacturing plant. A cash-flow method is used to estimate a selling price necessary for the manufacturing plant to recover its total cost of production. A levelized unit sales price ($ per unit of product) is determined by dividing the net-present value of the manufacturing plant’s expenses ($) by the net present value of its product output. A user defined production schedule drives the cash-flow method that determines the levelized unit price. In addition, an analyst can increase the levelized unit price to include a gross profit margin to estimate a product sales price. This model allows an analyst to understand the effect that any input variables could have on the cost of manufacturing a product. In addition, the tool is able to perform sensitivity analysis, which can be used to identify the key variables and assumptions that have the greatest influence on the levelized costs. This component is intended to help technology researchers focus their research attention on tasks

  11. Modelling the cost effectiveness of antidepressant treatment in primary care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Revicki, D A; Brown, R E; Palmer, W; Bakish, D; Rosser, W W; Anton, S F; Feeny, D

    1995-12-01

    The aim of this study was to estimate the cost effectiveness of nefazodone compared with imipramine or fluoxetine in treating women with major depressive disorder. Clinical decision analysis and a Markov state-transition model were used to estimate the lifetime health outcomes and medical costs of 3 antidepressant treatments. The model, which represents ideal primary care practice, compares treatment with nefazodone to treatment with either imipramine or fluoxetine. The economic analysis was based on the healthcare system of the Canadian province of Ontario, and considered only direct medical costs. Health outcomes were expressed as quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and costs were in 1993 Canadian dollars ($Can; $Can1 = $US0.75, September 1995). Incremental cost-utility ratios were calculated comparing the relative lifetime discounted medical costs and QALYs associated with nefazodone with those of imipramine or fluoxetine. Data for constructing the model and estimating necessary parameters were derived from the medical literature, clinical trial data, and physician judgement. Data included information on: Ontario primary care physicians' clinical management of major depression; medical resource use and costs; probabilities of recurrence of depression; suicide rates; compliance rates; and health utilities. Estimates of utilities for depression-related hypothetical health states were obtained from patients with major depression (n = 70). Medical costs and QALYs were discounted to present value using a 5% rate. Sensitivity analyses tested the assumptions of the model by varying the discount rate, depression recurrence rates, compliance rates, and the duration of the model. The base case analysis found that nefazodone treatment costs $Can1447 less per patient than imipramine treatment (discounted lifetime medical costs were $Can50,664 vs $Can52,111) and increases the number of QALYs by 0.72 (13.90 vs 13.18). Nefazodone treatment costs $Can14 less than fluoxetine

  12. Life cycle cost estimation and systems analysis of Waste Management Facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shropshire, D.; Feizollahi, F.

    1995-01-01

    This paper presents general conclusions from application of a system cost analysis method developed by the United States Department of Energy (DOE), Waste Management Division (WM), Waste Management Facilities Costs Information (WMFCI) program. The WMFCI method has been used to assess the DOE complex-wide management of radioactive, hazardous, and mixed wastes. The Idaho Engineering Laboratory, along with its subcontractor Morrison Knudsen Corporation, has been responsible for developing and applying the WMFCI cost analysis method. The cost analyses are based on system planning level life-cycle costs. The costs for life-cycle waste management activities estimated by WMFCI range from bench-scale testing and developmental work needed to design and construct a facility, facility permitting and startup, operation and maintenance, to the final decontamination, decommissioning, and closure of the facility. For DOE complex-wide assessments, cost estimates have been developed at the treatment, storage, and disposal module level and rolled up for each DOE installation. Discussions include conclusions reached by studies covering complex-wide consolidation of treatment, storage, and disposal facilities, system cost modeling, system costs sensitivity, system cost optimization, and the integration of WM waste with the environmental restoration and decontamination and decommissioning secondary wastes

  13. Estimating resource costs of compliance with EU WFD ecological status requirements at the river basin scale

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riegels, Niels; Jensen, Roar; Benasson, Lisa

    2011-01-01

    Resource costs of meeting EU WFD ecological status requirements at the river basin scale are estimated by comparing net benefits of water use given ecological status constraints to baseline water use values. Resource costs are interpreted as opportunity costs of water use arising from water...... scarcity. An optimization approach is used to identify economically efficient ways to meet WFD requirements. The approach is implemented using a river basin simulation model coupled to an economic post-processor; the simulation model and post-processor are run from a central controller that iterates until...... an allocation is found that maximizes net benefits given WFD requirements. Water use values are estimated for urban/domestic, agricultural, industrial, livestock, and tourism water users. Ecological status is estimated using metrics that relate average monthly river flow volumes to the natural hydrologic regime...

  14. On production costs in vertical differentiation models

    OpenAIRE

    Dorothée Brécard

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we analyse the effects of the introduction of a unit production cost beside a fixed cost of quality improvement in a duopoly model of vertical product differentiation. Thanks to an original methodology, we show that a low unit cost tends to reduce product differentiation and thus prices, whereas a high unit cost leads to widen product differentiation and to increase prices

  15. Analyzing Health-Related Quality of Life Data to Estimate Parameters for Cost-Effectiveness Models: An Example Using Longitudinal EQ-5D Data from the SHIFT Randomized Controlled Trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffiths, Alison; Paracha, Noman; Davies, Andrew; Branscombe, Neil; Cowie, Martin R; Sculpher, Mark

    2017-03-01

    The aim of this article is to discuss methods used to analyze health-related quality of life (HRQoL) data from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) for decision analytic models. The analysis presented in this paper was used to provide HRQoL data for the ivabradine health technology assessment (HTA) submission in chronic heart failure. We have used a large, longitudinal EuroQol five-dimension questionnaire (EQ-5D) dataset from the Systolic Heart Failure Treatment with the I f Inhibitor Ivabradine Trial (SHIFT) (clinicaltrials.gov: NCT02441218) to illustrate issues and methods. HRQoL weights (utility values) were estimated from a mixed regression model developed using SHIFT EQ-5D data (n = 5313 patients). The regression model was used to predict HRQoL outcomes according to treatment, patient characteristics, and key clinical outcomes for patients with a heart rate ≥75 bpm. Ivabradine was associated with an HRQoL weight gain of 0.01. HRQoL weights differed according to New York Heart Association (NYHA) class (NYHA I-IV, no hospitalization: standard care 0.82-0.46; ivabradine 0.84-0.47). A reduction in HRQoL weight was associated with hospitalizations within 30 days of an HRQoL assessment visit, with this reduction varying by NYHA class [-0.07 (NYHA I) to -0.21 (NYHA IV)]. The mixed model explained variation in EQ-5D data according to key clinical outcomes and patient characteristics, providing essential information for long-term predictions of patient HRQoL in the cost-effectiveness model. This model was also used to estimate the loss in HRQoL associated with hospitalizations. In SHIFT many hospitalizations did not occur close to EQ-5D visits; hence, any temporary changes in HRQoL associated with such events would not be captured fully in observed RCT evidence, but could be predicted in our cost-effectiveness analysis using the mixed model. Given the large reduction in hospitalizations associated with ivabradine this was an important feature of the analysis. The

  16. Introduction to the methods of estimating nuclear power generating costs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1961-11-01

    The present report prepared by the Agency with the guidance and assistance of a panel of experts from Member States, the names of whom will be found at the end of this report, represents the first step in the methods of cost evaluation. The main objectives of the report are: (1) The preparation of a full list of the cost items likely to be encountered so that the preliminary estimates for a given nuclear power system can be relied upon in deciding on its economic merits. (2) A survey of the methods currently used for the estimation of the generating costs of the power produced by a nuclear station. The survey is intended for a wide audience ranging from engineers to public officials with an interest in the prospects of nuclear power. An attempt has therefore been made to refrain from detailed technical discussions in order to make the presentation easily understandable to readers with only a very general knowledge of the principles of nuclear engineering. 3 figs, tabs.

  17. Estimation of cost function in the natural gas industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Young Duk [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

    1999-02-01

    The natural gas industry in Korea has characteristics of a dual industrial structure with wholesale and retail and a regional monopoly of city gas company. Recently there have been discussions on the restructuring of gas industry and the problems arising from such industrial organization. At this point, the labor and capital cost of KOGAS were analyzed to find out efficiency of KOGAS, the wholesaler and the cost function focusing on distribution was estimated to find out effect of scale of city gas company, the retailer. As a result, in the case of KOGAS, it is prove that enhancing competitive power is needed by improving labor productivity through stabilization of labor structure and by maximizing value-added through stability of capital combination. From the estimation of cost function of city gas companies, the existing regional monopoly of city gas company have effects on its scale only when the area of operation and end users used the same amount per end user are increased. (author). 31 refs., 10 figs., 43 tabs.

  18. Introduction to the methods of estimating nuclear power generating costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1961-01-01

    The present report prepared by the Agency with the guidance and assistance of a panel of experts from Member States, the names of whom will be found at the end of this report, represents the first step in the methods of cost evaluation. The main objectives of the report are: (1) The preparation of a full list of the cost items likely to be encountered so that the preliminary estimates for a given nuclear power system can be relied upon in deciding on its economic merits. (2) A survey of the methods currently used for the estimation of the generating costs of the power produced by a nuclear station. The survey is intended for a wide audience ranging from engineers to public officials with an interest in the prospects of nuclear power. An attempt has therefore been made to refrain from detailed technical discussions in order to make the presentation easily understandable to readers with only a very general knowledge of the principles of nuclear engineering. 3 figs, tabs

  19. Accounting for the relationship between per diem cost and LOS when estimating hospitalization costs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishak, K Jack; Stolar, Marilyn; Hu, Ming-yi; Alvarez, Piedad; Wang, Yamei; Getsios, Denis; Williams, Gregory C

    2012-12-01

    Hospitalization costs in clinical trials are typically derived by multiplying the length of stay (LOS) by an average per-diem (PD) cost from external sources. This assumes that PD costs are independent of LOS. Resource utilization in early days of the stay is usually more intense, however, and thus, the PD cost for a short hospitalization may be higher than for longer stays. The shape of this relationship is unlikely to be linear, as PD costs would be expected to gradually plateau. This paper describes how to model the relationship between PD cost and LOS using flexible statistical modelling techniques. An example based on a clinical study of clevidipine for the treatment of peri-operative hypertension during hospitalizations for cardiac surgery is used to illustrate how inferences about cost-savings associated with good blood pressure (BP) control during the stay can be affected by the approach used to derive hospitalization costs.Data on the cost and LOS of hospitalizations for coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) from the Massachusetts Acute Hospital Case Mix Database (the MA Case Mix Database) were analyzed to link LOS to PD cost, factoring in complications that may have occurred during the hospitalization or post-discharge. The shape of the relationship between LOS and PD costs in the MA Case Mix was explored graphically in a regression framework. A series of statistical models including those based on simple logarithmic transformation of LOS to more flexible models using LOcally wEighted Scatterplot Smoothing (LOESS) techniques were considered. A final model was selected, using simplicity and parsimony as guiding principles in addition traditional fit statistics (like Akaike's Information Criterion, or AIC). This mapping was applied in ECLIPSE to predict an LOS-specific PD cost, and then a total cost of hospitalization. These were then compared for patients who had good vs. poor peri-operative blood-pressure control. The MA Case Mix dataset included data

  20. Accounting for the relationship between per diem cost and LOS when estimating hospitalization costs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ishak K

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Hospitalization costs in clinical trials are typically derived by multiplying the length of stay (LOS by an average per-diem (PD cost from external sources. This assumes that PD costs are independent of LOS. Resource utilization in early days of the stay is usually more intense, however, and thus, the PD cost for a short hospitalization may be higher than for longer stays. The shape of this relationship is unlikely to be linear, as PD costs would be expected to gradually plateau. This paper describes how to model the relationship between PD cost and LOS using flexible statistical modelling techniques. Methods An example based on a clinical study of clevidipine for the treatment of peri-operative hypertension during hospitalizations for cardiac surgery is used to illustrate how inferences about cost-savings associated with good blood pressure (BP control during the stay can be affected by the approach used to derive hospitalization costs. Data on the cost and LOS of hospitalizations for coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG from the Massachusetts Acute Hospital Case Mix Database (the MA Case Mix Database were analyzed to link LOS to PD cost, factoring in complications that may have occurred during the hospitalization or post-discharge. The shape of the relationship between LOS and PD costs in the MA Case Mix was explored graphically in a regression framework. A series of statistical models including those based on simple logarithmic transformation of LOS to more flexible models using LOcally wEighted Scatterplot Smoothing (LOESS techniques were considered. A final model was selected, using simplicity and parsimony as guiding principles in addition traditional fit statistics (like Akaike’s Information Criterion, or AIC. This mapping was applied in ECLIPSE to predict an LOS-specific PD cost, and then a total cost of hospitalization. These were then compared for patients who had good vs. poor peri-operative blood

  1. Waste management facilities cost information: System cost model product description. Revision 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lundeen, A.S.; Hsu, K.M.; Shropshire, D.E.

    1996-02-01

    In May of 1994, Lockheed Idaho Technologies Company (LITCO) in Idaho Falls, Idaho and subcontractors developed the System Cost Model (SCM) application. The SCM estimates life-cycle costs of the entire US Department of Energy (DOE) complex for designing; constructing; operating; and decommissioning treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD) facilities for mixed low-level, low-level, transuranic, and mixed transuranic waste. The SCM uses parametric cost functions to estimate life-cycle costs for various treatment, storage, and disposal modules which reflect planned and existing facilities at DOE installations. In addition, SCM can model new facilities based on capacity needs over the program life cycle. The SCM also provides transportation costs for DOE wastes. Transportation costs are provided for truck and rail and include transport of contact-handled, remote-handled, and alpha (transuranic) wastes. The user can provide input data (default data is included in the SCM) including the volume and nature of waste to be managed, the time period over which the waste is to be managed, and the configuration of the waste management complex (i.e., where each installation's generated waste will be treated, stored, and disposed). Then the SCM uses parametric cost equations to estimate the costs of pre-operations (designing), construction costs, operation management, and decommissioning these waste management facilities

  2. Total life cycle cost model for electric power stations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cardullo, M.W.

    1995-01-01

    The Total Life Cycle Cost (TLCC) model for electric power stations was developed to provide a technology screening model. The TLCC analysis involves normalizing cost estimates with respect to performance standards and financial assumptions and preparing a profile of all costs over the service life of the power station. These costs when levelized present a value in terms of a utility electricity rate. Comparison of cost and the pricing of the electricity for a utility shows if a valid project exists. Cost components include both internal and external costs. Internal costs are direct costs associated with the purchase, and operation of the power station and include initial capital costs, operating and maintenance costs. External costs result from societal and/or environmental impacts that are external to the marketplace and can include air quality impacts due to emissions, infrastructure costs, and other impacts. The cost stream is summed (current dollars) or discounted (constant dollars) to some base year to yield a overall TLCC of each power station technology on a common basis. While minimizing life cycle cost is an important consideration, it may not always be a preferred method for some utilities who may prefer minimizing capital costs. Such consideration does not always result in technology penetration in a marketplace such as the utility sector. Under various regulatory climates, the utility is likely to heavily weigh initial capital costs while giving limited consideration to other costs such as societal costs. Policy makers considering external costs, such as those resulting from environmental impacts, may reach significantly different conclusions about which technologies are most advantageous to society. The TLCC analysis model for power stations was developed to facilitate consideration of all perspectives

  3. Global transportation cost modeling for long-range planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pope, R.B.; Michelhaugh, R.D.; Singley, P.T.; Lester, P.B.

    1998-02-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) is preparing to perform significant remediation activities of the sites for which it is responsible. To accomplish this, it is preparing a corporate global plan focused on activities over the next decade. Significant in these planned activities is the transportation of the waste arising from the remediation. The costs of this transportation are expected to be large. To support the initial assessment of the plan, a cost estimating model was developed, peer-reviewed against other available packaging and transportation cost data, and applied to a significant number of shipping campaigns of radioactive waste. This cost estimating model, known as the Ten-year Plan Transportation Cost Model (TEPTRAM), can be used to model radioactive material shipments between DOE sites or from DOE sites to non-DOE destinations. The model considers the costs for (a) recovering and processing of the wastes, (b)packaging the wastes for transport, and (c) the carriage of the waste. It also provides a rough order of magnitude estimate of labor costs associated with preparing and undertaking the shipments. At the user's direction, the model can also consider the cost of DOE's interactions with its external stakeholders (e.g., state and local governments and tribal entities) and the cost associated with tracking and communicating with the shipments. By considering all of these sources of costs, it provides a mechanism for assessing and comparing the costs of various waste processing and shipping campaign alternatives to help guide decision-making. Recent analyses of specific planned shipments of transuranic (TRU) waste which consider alternative packaging options are described. These analyses show that options are available for significantly reducing total costs while still satisfying regulatory requirements

  4. Global transportation cost modeling for long range planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pope, R.B.; Michelhaugh, R.D.; Singley, P.T.; Lester, P.B.

    1998-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is preparing to perform significant remediation activities of the sites for which it is responsible. To accomplish this, it is preparing a corporate global plan focused on activities over the next decade. Significant in these planned activities is the transportation of the waste arising from the remediation. The costs of this transportation are expected to be large. To support the initial assessment of the plan, a cost-estimating model was developed, peer-reviewed against other available packaging and transportation cost data, and applied to significant number of shipping campaigns of radioactive waste. This cost-estimating model, known as the TEn-year Plan TRAnsportation cost Model (TEPTRAM), can be used to model radioactive material shipments between DOE sites or from DOE sites to non-DOE destinations. The model considers the costs for recovering and processing of the wastes, packaging the wastes for transport, and the carriage of the waste. It also provides a rough order-of-magnitude estimate of labor costs associated with preparing nd undertaking the shipments. At the user's direction, the model can also consider the cost of DOE's interactions with its external stakeholders (e.g., state and local governments and tribal entities) and the cost associated with tracking and communicating with the shipments. By considering all of these sources of costs, it provides a mechanism for assessing and comparing the costs of various waste processing and shipping campaign alternatives to help guide decision-making. Recent analyses of specific planned shipments of transuranic (TRU) waste which consider alternative packaging options are described. These analyses show that options are available for significantly reducing total costs while still satisfying regulatory requirements. (authors)

  5. IVF cycle cost estimation using Activity Based Costing and Monte Carlo simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassettari, Lucia; Mosca, Marco; Mosca, Roberto; Rolando, Fabio; Costa, Mauro; Pisaturo, Valerio

    2016-03-01

    The Authors present a new methodological approach in stochastic regime to determine the actual costs of an healthcare process. The paper specifically shows the application of the methodology for the determination of the cost of an Assisted reproductive technology (ART) treatment in Italy. The reason of this research comes from the fact that deterministic regime is inadequate to implement an accurate estimate of the cost of this particular treatment. In fact the durations of the different activities involved are unfixed and described by means of frequency distributions. Hence the need to determine in addition to the mean value of the cost, the interval within which it is intended to vary with a known confidence level. Consequently the cost obtained for each type of cycle investigated (in vitro fertilization and embryo transfer with or without intracytoplasmic sperm injection), shows tolerance intervals around the mean value sufficiently restricted as to make the data obtained statistically robust and therefore usable also as reference for any benchmark with other Countries. It should be noted that under a methodological point of view the approach was rigorous. In fact it was used both the technique of Activity Based Costing for determining the cost of individual activities of the process both the Monte Carlo simulation, with control of experimental error, for the construction of the tolerance intervals on the final result.

  6. Treatment Cost Analysis Tool (TCAT) for estimating costs of outpatient treatment services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flynn, Patrick M; Broome, Kirk M; Beaston-Blaakman, Aaron; Knight, Danica K; Horgan, Constance M; Shepard, Donald S

    2009-02-01

    A Microsoft Excel-based workbook designed for research analysts to use in a national study was retooled for treatment program directors and financial officers to allocate, analyze, and estimate outpatient treatment costs in the U.S. This instrument can also be used as a planning and management tool to optimize resources and forecast the impact of future changes in staffing, client flow, program design, and other resources. The Treatment Cost Analysis Tool (TCAT) automatically provides feedback and generates summaries and charts using comparative data from a national sample of non-methadone outpatient providers. TCAT is being used by program staff to capture and allocate both economic and accounting costs, and outpatient service costs are reported for a sample of 70 programs. Costs for an episode of treatment in regular, intensive, and mixed types of outpatient treatment were $882, $1310, and $1381 respectively (based on 20% trimmed means and 2006 dollars). An hour of counseling cost $64 in regular, $85 intensive, and $86 mixed. Group counseling hourly costs per client were $8, $11, and $10 respectively for regular, intensive, and mixed. Future directions include use of a web-based interview version, much like some of the commercially available tax preparation software tools, and extensions for use in other modalities of treatment.

  7. Operations and support cost modeling using Markov chains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unal, Resit

    1989-01-01

    Systems for future missions will be selected with life cycle costs (LCC) as a primary evaluation criterion. This reflects the current realization that only systems which are considered affordable will be built in the future due to the national budget constaints. Such an environment calls for innovative cost modeling techniques which address all of the phases a space system goes through during its life cycle, namely: design and development, fabrication, operations and support; and retirement. A significant portion of the LCC for reusable systems are generated during the operations and support phase (OS). Typically, OS costs can account for 60 to 80 percent of the total LCC. Clearly, OS costs are wholly determined or at least strongly influenced by decisions made during the design and development phases of the project. As a result OS costs need to be considered and estimated early in the conceptual phase. To be effective, an OS cost estimating model needs to account for actual instead of ideal processes by associating cost elements with probabilities. One approach that may be suitable for OS cost modeling is the use of the Markov Chain Process. Markov chains are an important method of probabilistic analysis for operations research analysts but they are rarely used for life cycle cost analysis. This research effort evaluates the use of Markov Chains in LCC analysis by developing OS cost model for a hypothetical reusable space transportation vehicle (HSTV) and suggests further uses of the Markov Chain process as a design-aid tool.

  8. Preliminary Cost Model for Space Telescopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahl, H. Philip; Prince, F. Andrew; Smart, Christian; Stephens, Kyle; Henrichs, Todd

    2009-01-01

    Parametric cost models are routinely used to plan missions, compare concepts and justify technology investments. However, great care is required. Some space telescope cost models, such as those based only on mass, lack sufficient detail to support such analysis and may lead to inaccurate conclusions. Similarly, using ground based telescope models which include the dome cost will also lead to inaccurate conclusions. This paper reviews current and historical models. Then, based on data from 22 different NASA space telescopes, this paper tests those models and presents preliminary analysis of single and multi-variable space telescope cost models.

  9. Application of Korean Specific Data to Economic Cost Estimation by KOSCA-MACCS2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choi, Sun Yeong; Jang, Seung-Cheol [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    Default values for various data provided by MACCS2(MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System Version 2) such as population, weather, food, and economic cost are far from current domestic condition. In the case of economic cost data, related default values came from MACCS and WASH-1400. KAERI (Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute) has been developed a Korean-specific level 3 PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment) code package based on MACCS2 to reflect domestic condition for off-site consequence analysis. To this end, we performed a study on the domestic specific technical issues for level 3 PSA, which are a dose conversion factor, food chain model, atmospheric dispersion model, and domestic-specific economic effect model. Based on the study, we developed a level 3 PSA code, so-called KOSCAMACCS2 (Korean-specific Off-Site Consequence Analysis based on MACCS2). The purpose of this paper is to introduce economic cost variable provided by KOSCA-MACCS2 and application of Korean-specific data to the related economic cost estimation with KOSCA-MACCS2. In this paper, we introduced economic cost variable provided by KOSCA-MACCS2 and suggested the application plan of Korean-specific data to the related economic cost estimation. To this end, we considered data sources for those economic cost variables to reflect Korea-specific features such as data by Statistics Korea or Bank of Korea etc. For the decontamination related variables, we applied foreign literatures to apply data, which are Extern-E and UNESCO Chernobyl Forum data. Based on the data resources we estimated data for input variables related to economic cost estimation.

  10. Application of Korean Specific Data to Economic Cost Estimation by KOSCA-MACCS2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Sun Yeong; Jang, Seung-Cheol

    2015-01-01

    Default values for various data provided by MACCS2(MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System Version 2) such as population, weather, food, and economic cost are far from current domestic condition. In the case of economic cost data, related default values came from MACCS and WASH-1400. KAERI (Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute) has been developed a Korean-specific level 3 PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment) code package based on MACCS2 to reflect domestic condition for off-site consequence analysis. To this end, we performed a study on the domestic specific technical issues for level 3 PSA, which are a dose conversion factor, food chain model, atmospheric dispersion model, and domestic-specific economic effect model. Based on the study, we developed a level 3 PSA code, so-called KOSCAMACCS2 (Korean-specific Off-Site Consequence Analysis based on MACCS2). The purpose of this paper is to introduce economic cost variable provided by KOSCA-MACCS2 and application of Korean-specific data to the related economic cost estimation with KOSCA-MACCS2. In this paper, we introduced economic cost variable provided by KOSCA-MACCS2 and suggested the application plan of Korean-specific data to the related economic cost estimation. To this end, we considered data sources for those economic cost variables to reflect Korea-specific features such as data by Statistics Korea or Bank of Korea etc. For the decontamination related variables, we applied foreign literatures to apply data, which are Extern-E and UNESCO Chernobyl Forum data. Based on the data resources we estimated data for input variables related to economic cost estimation

  11. Overview of SDCM - The Spacecraft Design and Cost Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferebee, Melvin J.; Farmer, Jeffery T.; Andersen, Gregory C.; Flamm, Jeffery D.; Badi, Deborah M.

    1988-01-01

    The Spacecraft Design and Cost Model (SDCM) is a computer-aided design and analysis tool for synthesizing spacecraft configurations, integrating their subsystems, and generating information concerning on-orbit servicing and costs. SDCM uses a bottom-up method in which the cost and performance parameters for subsystem components are first calculated; the model then sums the contributions from individual components in order to obtain an estimate of sizes and costs for each candidate configuration within a selected spacecraft system. An optimum spacraft configuration can then be selected.

  12. Estimation development cost, study case: Quality Management System Reactor TRIGA Mark III

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antúnez Barbosa, Tereso Antonio; Valdovinos Rosas, Rosa María; Marcial Romero, José Raymundo; Ramos Corchado, Marco Antonio; Edgar Herrera Arriaga

    2016-01-01

    The process of estimating costs in software engineering is not a simple task, it must be addressed carefully to obtain an efficient strategy to solve problems associated with the effort, cost and time of activities that are performed in the development of an information system project. In this context the main goal for both developers and customers is the cost, since developers are worry about the effort pay-load and customers are worry about the product pay-load. However, in other fields the cost of goods depends on the activity or process that is performed, thereby deduce that the main cost of the final product of a development project software project is undoubtedly its size. In this paper a comparative study of common models for estimating costs are developed. These models are used today in order to create a structured analysis to provide the necessary information about cost, time and effort for making decisions in a software development project. Finally the models are applied to a case study, which is a system called Monitorizacion Automatica del Sistema de Gestion de Calidad del Reactor TRIGA Mark III. (author)

  13. The Shuttle Cost and Price model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leary, Katherine; Stone, Barbara

    1983-01-01

    The Shuttle Cost and Price (SCP) model was developed as a tool to assist in evaluating major aspects of Shuttle operations that have direct and indirect economic consequences. It incorporates the major aspects of NASA Pricing Policy and corresponds to the NASA definition of STS operating costs. An overview of the SCP model is presented and the cost model portion of SCP is described in detail. Selected recent applications of the SCP model to NASA Pricing Policy issues are presented.

  14. Estimation of cost-effectiveness of the Finnish electricity distribution utilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kopsakangas-Savolainen, Maria; Svento, Rauli [Department of Economics, University of Oulu (Finland)

    2008-03-15

    This paper examines the cost-effectiveness of Finnish electricity distribution utilities. We estimate several panel data stochastic frontier specifications using both Cobb-Douglas and Translog model specifications. The conventional models are extended in order to model observed heterogeneity explicitly in the cost frontier models. The true fixed effects model has been used as a representative of the models which account for unobserved heterogeneity and extended conventional random effect models have been used in analysing the impact of observed heterogeneity. A comparison between the conventional random effects model and models where heterogeneity component is entered either into the mean or into the variance of the inefficiency term shows that relative efficiency scores diminish when heterogeneity is added to the analysis. The true fixed effects model on the other hand gives clearly smaller inefficiency scores than random effects models. In the paper we also show that the relative inefficiency scores and rankings are not sensitive to the cost function specification. Our analysis points out the importance of the efficient use of the existing distribution network. The economies of scale results suggest that firms could reduce their operating costs by using networks more efficiently. According to our results average size firms which have high load factors are the most efficient ones. All firms have unused capacities so that they can improve cost-effectiveness rather by increasing the average distributed volumes than by mergers. (author)

  15. Estimation of cost-effectiveness of the Finnish electricity distribution utilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kopsakangas-Savolainen, Maria; Svento, Rauli

    2008-01-01

    This paper examines the cost-effectiveness of Finnish electricity distribution utilities. We estimate several panel data stochastic frontier specifications using both Cobb-Douglas and Translog model specifications. The conventional models are extended in order to model observed heterogeneity explicitly in the cost frontier models. The true fixed effects model has been used as a representative of the models which account for unobserved heterogeneity and extended conventional random effect models have been used in analysing the impact of observed heterogeneity. A comparison between the conventional random effects model and models where heterogeneity component is entered either into the mean or into the variance of the inefficiency term shows that relative efficiency scores diminish when heterogeneity is added to the analysis. The true fixed effects model on the other hand gives clearly smaller inefficiency scores than random effects models. In the paper we also show that the relative inefficiency scores and rankings are not sensitive to the cost function specification. Our analysis points out the importance of the efficient use of the existing distribution network. The economies of scale results suggest that firms could reduce their operating costs by using networks more efficiently. According to our results average size firms which have high load factors are the most efficient ones. All firms have unused capacities so that they can improve cost-effectiveness rather by increasing the average distributed volumes than by mergers

  16. 48 CFR 2452.216-70 - Estimated cost, base fee and award fee.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 6 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 true Estimated cost, base fee... Provisions and Clauses 2452.216-70 Estimated cost, base fee and award fee. As prescribed in 2416.406(e)(1), insert the following clause in all cost-plus-award-fee contracts: Estimated Cost, Base Fee and Award Fee...

  17. 48 CFR 1852.216-85 - Estimated cost and award fee.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... and Clauses 1852.216-85 Estimated cost and award fee. As prescribed in 1816.406-70(e), insert the following clause: Estimated Cost and Award Fee (SEP 1993) The estimated cost of this contract is $___. The... cost, base fee, and maximum award fee are $___. (End of clause) Alternate I (SEP 1993). As prescribed...

  18. Model for traffic emissions estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexopoulos, A.; Assimacopoulos, D.; Mitsoulis, E.

    A model is developed for the spatial and temporal evaluation of traffic emissions in metropolitan areas based on sparse measurements. All traffic data available are fully employed and the pollutant emissions are determined with the highest precision possible. The main roads are regarded as line sources of constant traffic parameters in the time interval considered. The method is flexible and allows for the estimation of distributed small traffic sources (non-line/area sources). The emissions from the latter are assumed to be proportional to the local population density as well as to the traffic density leading to local main arteries. The contribution of moving vehicles to air pollution in the Greater Athens Area for the period 1986-1988 is analyzed using the proposed model. Emissions and other related parameters are evaluated. Emissions from area sources were found to have a noticeable share of the overall air pollution.

  19. Economic impact of malignant mesothelioma in Italy: an estimate of the public and social costs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buresti, Giuliana; Colonna, Fabrizio; Corfiati, Marisa; Valenti, Antonio; Persechino, Benedetta; Marinaccio, Alessandro; Rondinone, Bruna Maria; Iavicoli, Sergio

    2017-10-27

    Despite their considerable interest for public health policies and for occupational disease management and assessment, the economic costs of asbestos-related diseases (ARDs) for society have not been fully estimated or even frequently discussed. The aim of this study was to estimate the economic burden of mesothelioma in Italy by assessing the overall societal cost of the disease, applying an econometric model. We analyzed two main cost groups, public and social. The first includes expenditure borne by the State and other public bodies (medical care costs, insurance, tax and benefits), while the latter uses the human capital approach to measure the loss of productivity suffered by the economy as a whole. We provide an estimate of euro 33,000 per patient for medical care costs and euro 25,000 for insurance and compensation; tax and benefits seem to roughly compensate. We estimated a loss of more than euro 200,000 per patient, in terms of loss of production. This study offers a practical approach for estimating the economic impact of mesothelioma, and provides empirical evidence of the huge economic burden linked to this disease, with its high etiologic fraction.

  20. Chlamydia sequelae cost estimates used in current economic evaluations: does one-size-fit-all?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ong, Koh Jun; Soldan, Kate; Jit, Mark; Dunbar, J Kevin; Woodhall, Sarah C

    2017-02-01

    Current evidence suggests that chlamydia screening programmes can be cost-effective, conditional on assumptions within mathematical models. We explored differences in cost estimates used in published economic evaluations of chlamydia screening from seven countries (four papers each from UK and the Netherlands, two each from Sweden and Australia, and one each from Ireland, Canada and Denmark). From these studies, we extracted management cost estimates for seven major chlamydia sequelae. In order to compare the influence of different sequelae considered in each paper and their corresponding management costs on the total cost per case of untreated chlamydia, we applied reported unit sequelae management costs considered in each paper to a set of untreated infection to sequela progression probabilities. All costs were adjusted to 2013/2014 Great British Pound (GBP) values. Sequelae management costs ranged from £171 to £3635 (pelvic inflammatory disease); £953 to £3615 (ectopic pregnancy); £546 to £6752 (tubal factor infertility); £159 to £3341 (chronic pelvic pain); £22 to £1008 (epididymitis); £11 to £1459 (neonatal conjunctivitis) and £433 to £3992 (neonatal pneumonia). Total cost of sequelae per case of untreated chlamydia ranged from £37 to £412. There was substantial variation in cost per case of chlamydia sequelae used in published chlamydia screening economic evaluations, which likely arose from different assumptions about disease management pathways and the country perspectives taken. In light of this, when interpreting these studies, the reader should be satisfied that the cost estimates used sufficiently reflect the perspective taken and current disease management for their respective context. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  1. Estimating the cost-effectiveness of stroke units in France compared with conventional care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Launois, R; Giroud, M; Mégnigbêto, A C; Le Lay, K; Présenté, G; Mahagne, M H; Durand, I; Gaudin, A F

    2004-03-01

    The incidence of stroke in France is estimated at between 120 000 and 150 000 cases per year. This modeling study assessed the clinical and economic benefits of establishing specialized stroke units compared with conventional care. Data from the Dijon stroke registry were used to determine healthcare trajectories according to the degree of autonomy and organization of patient care. The relative risks of death or institutionalization or death or dependence after passage through a stroke unit were compared with conventional care. These risks were then inserted with the costing data into a Markov model to estimate the cost-effectiveness of stroke units. Patients cared for in a stroke unit survive more trimesters without sequelae in the 5 years after hospitalization than those cared for conventionally (11.6 versus 8.28 trimesters). The mean cost per patient at 5 years was estimated at 30 983 for conventional care and 34 638 in a stroke unit. An incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for stroke units of 1359 per year of life gained without disability was estimated. The cost-effectiveness ratio for stroke units is much lower than the threshold (53 400 ) of acceptability recognized by the international scientific community. This finding justifies organizational changes in the management of stroke patients and the establishment of stroke units in France.

  2. Methodology applied by IRSN for nuclear accident cost estimations in France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-01-01

    This report describes the methodology used by IRSN to estimate the cost of potential nuclear accidents in France. It concerns possible accidents involving pressurized water reactors leading to radioactive releases in the environment. These accidents have been grouped in two accident families called: severe accidents and major accidents. Two model scenarios have been selected to represent each of these families. The report discusses the general methodology of nuclear accident cost estimation. The crucial point is that all cost should be considered: if not, the cost is underestimated which can lead to negative consequences for the value attributed to safety and for crisis preparation. As a result, the overall cost comprises many components: the most well-known is offsite radiological costs, but there are many others. The proposed estimates have thus required using a diversity of methods which are described in this report. Figures are presented at the end of this report. Among other things, they show that purely radiological costs only represent a non-dominant part of foreseeable economic consequences

  3. Cost Concept Model and Gateway Specification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kejser, Ulla Bøgvad

    2014-01-01

    This document introduces a Framework supporting the implementation of a cost concept model against which current and future cost models for curating digital assets can be benchmarked. The value built into this cost concept model leverages the comprehensive engagement by the 4C project with various...... to promote interoperability; • A Nested Model for Digital Curation—that visualises the core concepts, demonstrates how they interact and places them into context visually by linking them to A Cost and Benefit Model for Curation; This Framework provides guidance for data collection and associated calculations...

  4. Development of a Cost Estimation Process for Human Systems Integration Practitioners During the Analysis of Alternatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-01

    processes. Novice estimators must often use of these complicated cost estimation tools (e.g., ACEIT , SEER-H, SEER-S, PRICE-H, PRICE-S, etc.) until...However, the thesis will leverage the processes embedded in cost estimation tools such as the Automated Cost Estimating Integration Tool ( ACEIT ) and the

  5. Why Don't They Just Give Us Money? Project Cost Estimating and Cost Reporting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comstock, Douglas A.; Van Wychen, Kristin; Zimmerman, Mary Beth

    2015-01-01

    Successful projects require an integrated approach to managing cost, schedule, and risk. This is especially true for complex, multi-year projects involving multiple organizations. To explore solutions and leverage valuable lessons learned, NASA's Virtual Project Management Challenge will kick off a three-part series examining some of the challenges faced by project and program managers when it comes to managing these important elements. In this first session of the series, we will look at cost management, with an emphasis on the critical roles of cost estimating and cost reporting. By taking a proactive approach to both of these activities, project managers can better control life cycle costs, maintain stakeholder confidence, and protect other current and future projects in the organization's portfolio. Speakers will be Doug Comstock, Director of NASA's Cost Analysis Division, Kristin Van Wychen, Senior Analyst in the GAO Acquisition and Sourcing Management Team, and Mary Beth Zimmerman, Branch Chief for NASA's Portfolio Analysis Branch, Strategic Investments Division. Moderator Ramien Pierre is from NASA's Academy for Program/Project and Engineering Leadership (APPEL).

  6. Early cost estimating for road construction projects using multiple regression techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ibrahim Mahamid

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study is to develop early cost estimating models for road construction projects using multiple regression techniques, based on 131 sets of data collected in the West Bank in Palestine. As the cost estimates are required at early stages of a project, considerations were given to the fact that the input data for the required regression model could be easily extracted from sketches or scope definition of the project. 11 regression models are developed to estimate the total cost of road construction project in US dollar; 5 of them include bid quantities as input variables and 6 include road length and road width. The coefficient of determination r2 for the developed models is ranging from 0.92 to 0.98 which indicate that the predicted values from a forecast models fit with the real-life data. The values of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE of the developed regression models are ranging from 13% to 31%, the results compare favorably with past researches which have shown that the estimate accuracy in the early stages of a project is between ±25% and ±50%.

  7. AN IMPROVED COCOMO SOFTWARE COST ESTIMATION MODEL

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    DJFLEX

    developmental effort favourable to both software developers and customers, a standard effort multiplication factor(er) is introduced, to ... for recent changes in software engineering technology. The COCOMO .... application composition utilities.

  8. An Evaluation of Software Cost Estimating Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-06-01

    objectively. It may L± best at this time to pursue a policy that favors the maximum use of measur- able predictors but recognizes the possibility of using...E -J r % U,- U,% Ul 0 0 ~ - P 0 0 C, 0000CAr- 000 0-_ 1.0 o to U, U, U, U, U, 0D V. 0 m , mO ’D w , 00 CD mr- cnCD a o cm. to 0 ~ m, m wY . (m r "s

  9. Estimating Travel Cost Model: Spatial Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    S.G. Kim; J.M. Bowker; S.H. Cho; D.M. Lambert; D.B.K. English; C.M. Starbuck

    2010-01-01

    High gasoline prices made headlines in 2008 and 2009. The average gasoline price in the United States peaked at $4.05 per gallon in the second week of July, and it remained fairly high most of the third quarter of 2008, dropped significantly through September to December in 2008, and began to rise again in January 2009 (Energy Information Administration, 2009).

  10. Process Cost Modeling for Multi-Disciplinary Design Optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bao, Han P.; Freeman, William (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    For early design concepts, the conventional approach to cost is normally some kind of parametric weight-based cost model. There is now ample evidence that this approach can be misleading and inaccurate. By the nature of its development, a parametric cost model requires historical data and is valid only if the new design is analogous to those for which the model was derived. Advanced aerospace vehicles have no historical production data and are nowhere near the vehicles of the past. Using an existing weight-based cost model would only lead to errors and distortions of the true production cost. This report outlines the development of a process-based cost model in which the physical elements of the vehicle are costed according to a first-order dynamics model. This theoretical cost model, first advocated by early work at MIT, has been expanded to cover the basic structures of an advanced aerospace vehicle. Elemental costs based on the geometry of the design can be summed up to provide an overall estimation of the total production cost for a design configuration. This capability to directly link any design configuration to realistic cost estimation is a key requirement for high payoff MDO problems. Another important consideration in this report is the handling of part or product complexity. Here the concept of cost modulus is introduced to take into account variability due to different materials, sizes, shapes, precision of fabrication, and equipment requirements. The most important implication of the development of the proposed process-based cost model is that different design configurations can now be quickly related to their cost estimates in a seamless calculation process easily implemented on any spreadsheet tool. In successive sections, the report addresses the issues of cost modeling as follows. First, an introduction is presented to provide the background for the research work. Next, a quick review of cost estimation techniques is made with the intention to

  11. Ferry Lifecycle Cost Model for Federal Land Management Agencies : User's Guide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-30

    The Ferry Lifecycle Cost Model (model) is a spreadsheet-based sketch planning tool that estimates capital, operating, and total cost for various vessels that could be used to provide ferry service on a particular route given known service parameters....

  12. Capital cost models for geothermal power plants and fluid transmission systems. [GEOCOST

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schulte, S.C.

    1977-09-01

    The GEOCOST computer program is a simulation model for evaluating the economics of developing geothermal resources. The model was found to be both an accurate predictor of geothermal power production facility costs and a valid designer of such facilities. GEOCOST first designs a facility using thermodynamic optimization routines and then estimates costs for the selected design using cost models. Costs generated in this manner appear to correspond closely with detailed cost estimates made by industry planning groups. Through the use of this model, geothermal power production costs can be rapidly and accurately estimated for many alternative sites making the evaluation process much simpler yet more meaningful.

  13. Development of simplified decommissioning cost estimation code for nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tachibana, Mitsuo; Shiraishi, Kunio; Ishigami, Tsutomu

    2010-01-01

    The simplified decommissioning cost estimation code for nuclear facilities (DECOST code) was developed in consideration of features and structures of nuclear facilities and similarity of dismantling methods. The DECOST code could calculate 8 evaluation items of decommissioning cost. Actual dismantling in the Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) was evaluated; unit conversion factors used to calculate the manpower of dismantling activities were evaluated. Consequently, unit conversion factors of general components could be classified into three kinds. Weights of components and structures of the facility were necessary for calculation of manpower. Methods for evaluating weights of components and structures of the facility were studied. Consequently, the weight of components in the facility was proportional to the weight of structures of the facility. The weight of structures of the facility was proportional to the total area of floors in the facility. Decommissioning costs of 7 nuclear facilities in the JAEA were calculated by using the DECOST code. To verify the calculated results, the calculated manpower was compared with the manpower gained from actual dismantling. Consequently, the calculated manpower and actual manpower were almost equal. The outline of the DECOST code, evaluation results of unit conversion factors, the evaluation method of the weights of components and structures of the facility are described in this report. (author)

  14. Cost estimation of sumatra electricity expansion planning with nuclear option

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Edwaren Liun

    2008-01-01

    The objective of the study is to obtain the cost analysis on optimum solution of Sumatra electricity system using WASP-IV Program. Considering the economic aspect, nuclear power plant (NPP) is feasible in the future. From the geographical aspect Sumatra is prospecting for NPP site, especially the east coastal area due to the absence of hydro power potential and geothermal field. The use of petroleum as fuel in large scale power plants is not feasible. Beside causing high cost for electricity sector, it is also an important fuel for any other sectors such as transportation, electrification of isolated areas. Gas fuelled power plants is still feasible for next several decades in limited capacity. The study presents three scenarios, i.e. Low Scenario, Base Scenario and High Scenario applying discount rate of 8%, 10% and 12% respectively. Cost estimation for Sumatra System Expansion Planning is 57 465 million US$ on the Base Scenario - discount rate 8%, 59 349 million US$ on the Base Scenario - discount rate 10%, and 57 796 million US$ on the Base Scenario - discount rate 12%. The objective function is 15 172 US$ on the Base Scenario - discount rate 8%, 12 663 million US$ on the Base Scenario - discount rate 10%, and 11 017 million US$ on the Base Scenario - discount rate 12%. (author)

  15. Estimating the cost of cervical cancer screening in five developing countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goldie Sue J

    2006-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs can provide useful information to policymakers concerned with the broad allocation of resources as well as to local decision makers choosing between different options for reducing the burden from a single disease. For the latter, it is important to use country-specific data when possible and to represent cost differences between countries that might make one strategy more or less attractive than another strategy locally. As part of a CEA of cervical cancer screening in five developing countries, we supplemented limited primary cost data by developing other estimation techniques for direct medical and non-medical costs associated with alternative screening approaches using one of three initial screening tests: simple visual screening, HPV DNA testing, and cervical cytology. Here, we report estimation methods and results for three cost areas in which data were lacking. Methods To supplement direct medical costs, including staff, supplies, and equipment depreciation using country-specific data, we used alternative techniques to quantify cervical cytology and HPV DNA laboratory sample processing costs. We used a detailed quantity and price approach whose face validity was compared to an adaptation of a US laboratory estimation methodology. This methodology was also used to project annual sample processing capacities for each laboratory type. The cost of sample transport from the clinic to the laboratory was estimated using spatial models. A plausible range of the cost of patient time spent seeking and receiving screening was estimated using only formal sector employment and wages as well as using both formal and informal sector participation and country-specific minimum wages. Data sources included primary data from country-specific studies, international databases, international prices, and expert opinion. Costs were standardized to year 2000 international dollars using inflation adjustment and

  16. [Socioeconomic costs of food-borne disease using the cost-of-illness model: applying the QALY method].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Hosung; Lee, Suehyung; Kim, Jong Soo; Kim, Jinsuk; Han, Kyu Hong

    2010-07-01

    This study estimated the annual socioeconomic costs of food-borne disease in 2008 from a societal perspective and using a cost-of-illness method. Our model employed a comprehensive set of diagnostic disease codes to define food-borne diseases with using the Korea National Health Insurance (KNHI) reimbursement data. This study classified the food borne illness as three types of symptoms according to the severity of the illness: mild, moderate, severe. In addition to the traditional method of assessing the cost-of-illness, the study included measures to account for the lost quality of life. We estimated the cost of the lost quality of life using quality-adjusted life years and a visual analog scale. The direct cost included medical and medication costs, and the non-medical costs included transportation costs, caregiver's cost and administration costs. The lost productivity costs included lost workdays due to illness and lost earnings due to premature death. The study found the estimated annual socioeconomic costs of food-borne disease in 2008 were 954.9 billion won (735.3 billion won-996.9 billion won). The medical cost was 73.4 - 76.8% of the cost, the lost productivity cost was 22.6% and the cost of the lost quality of life was 26.0%. Most of the cost-of-illness studies are known to have underestimated the actual socioeconomic costs of the subjects, and these studies excluded many important social costs, such as the value of pain, suffering and functional disability. The study addressed the uncertainty related to estimating the socioeconomic costs of food-borne disease as well as the updated cost estimates. Our estimates could contribute to develop and evaluate policies for food-borne disease.

  17. The System Cost Model: A tool for life cycle cost and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hsu, K.; Lundeen, A.; Shropshire, D.; Sherick, M.

    1996-01-01

    In May of 1994, Lockheed Idaho Technologies Company (LITCO) in Idaho Falls, Idaho and subcontractors began development of the System Cost Model (SCM) application. The SCM estimates life cycle costs of the entire US Department of Energy (DOE) complex for designing; constructing; operating; and decommissioning treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD) facilities for mixed low-level, low-level, and transuranic waste. The SCM uses parametric cost functions to estimate life cycle costs for various treatment, storage, and disposal modules which reflect planned and existing waste management facilities at DOE installations. In addition, SCM can model new TSD facilities based on capacity needs over the program life cycle. The user can provide input data (default data is included in the SCM) including the volume and nature of waste to be managed, the time period over which the waste is to be managed, and the configuration of the waste management complex (i.e., where each installation's generated waste will be treated, stored, and disposed). Then the SCM uses parametric cost equations to estimate the costs of pre-operations (designing), construction, operations and maintenance, and decommissioning these waste management facilities. The SCM also provides transportation costs for DOE wastes. Transportation costs are provided for truck and rail and include transport of contact-handled, remote-handled, and alpha (transuranic) wastes. A complement to the SCM is the System Cost Model-Risk (SCM-R) model, which provides relative Environmental, Safety, and Health (ES and H) risk information. A relative ES and H risk basis has been developed and applied by LITCO at the INEL. The risk basis is now being automated in the SCM-R to facilitate rapid risk analysis of system alternatives. The added risk functionality will allow combined cost and risk evaluation of EM alternatives

  18. Integrated cost estimation methodology to support high-performance building design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vaidya, Prasad; Greden, Lara; Eijadi, David; McDougall, Tom [The Weidt Group, Minnetonka (United States); Cole, Ray [Axiom Engineers, Monterey (United States)

    2007-07-01

    Design teams evaluating the performance of energy conservation measures (ECMs) calculate energy savings rigorously with established modelling protocols, accounting for the interaction between various measures. However, incremental cost calculations do not have a similar rigor. Often there is no recognition of cost reductions with integrated design, nor is there assessment of cost interactions amongst measures. This lack of rigor feeds the notion that high-performance buildings cost more, creating a barrier for design teams pursuing aggressive high-performance outcomes. This study proposes an alternative integrated methodology to arrive at a lower perceived incremental cost for improved energy performance. The methodology is based on the use of energy simulations as means towards integrated design and cost estimation. Various points along the spectrum of integration are identified and characterized by the amount of design effort invested, the scheduling of effort, and relative energy performance of the resultant design. It includes a study of the interactions between building system parameters as they relate to capital costs. Several cost interactions amongst energy measures are found to be significant.The value of this approach is demonstrated with alternatives in a case study that shows the differences between perceived costs for energy measures along various points on the integration spectrum. These alternatives show design tradeoffs and identify how decisions would have been different with a standard costing approach. Areas of further research to make the methodology more robust are identified. Policy measures to encourage the integrated approach and reduce the barriers towards improved energy performance are discussed.

  19. Operating cost model for local service airlines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, J. L.; Andrastek, D. A.

    1976-01-01

    Several mathematical models now exist which determine the operating economics for a United States trunk airline. These models are valuable in assessing the impact of new aircraft into an airline's fleet. The use of a trunk airline cost model for the local service airline does not result in representative operating costs. A new model is presented which is representative of the operating conditions and resultant costs for the local service airline. The calculated annual direct and indirect operating costs for two multiequipment airlines are compared with their actual operating experience.

  20. Estimating the cost of healthcare delivery in three hospitals in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Objective: The cost burden (called full cost) of providing health services at a referral, a district and a mission hospital in Ghana were determined. Methods: Standard cost-finding and cost analysis tools recommended by World Health Organization are used to analyse 2002 and 2003 hospital data. Full cost centre costs were ...

  1. Uncertainties in early-stage capital cost estimation of process design – a case study on biorefinery design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cheali, Peam; Gernaey, Krist; Sin, Gürkan

    2015-01-01

    Capital investment, next to the product demand, sales, and production costs, is one of the key metrics commonly used for project evaluation and feasibility assessment. Estimating the investment costs of a new product/process alternative during early-stage design is a challenging task, which......) the Monte Carlo technique as an error propagation method based on expert input when cost data are not available. Four well-known models for early-stage cost estimation are reviewed and analyzed using the methodology. The significance of uncertainties of cost data for early-stage process design...

  2. On the Problem of Attribute Selection for Software Cost Estimation: Input Backward Elimination Using Artificial Neural Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Papatheocharous , Efi; Andreou , Andreas S.

    2010-01-01

    International audience; Many parameters affect the cost evolution of software projects. In the area of software cost estimation and project management the main challenge is to understand and quantify the effect of these parameters, or 'cost drivers', on the effort expended to develop software systems. This paper aims at investigating the effect of cost attributes on software development effort using empirical databases of completed projects and building Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models ...

  3. Attitude Estimation of Skis in Ski Jumping Using Low-Cost Inertial Measurement Units

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiang Fang

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an approach to estimate the attitude of skis for an entire ski jump using wearable, MEMS-based, low-cost Inertial Measurement Units (IMUs. First of all, a kinematic attitude model based on rigid-body dynamics and a sensor error model considering bias and scale factor error are established. Then, an extended Rauch-Tung-Striebel (RTS smoother is used to combine measurement data provided by both gyroscope and magnetometer to achieve an attitude estimation. Moreover, parameters for the bias and scale factor error in the sensor error model and the initial attitude are determined via a maximum-likelihood principle based parameter estimation algorithm. By implementing this approach, an attitude estimation of skis is achieved without further sensor calibration. Finally, results based on both the simulated reference data and the real experimental measurement data are presented, which proves the practicability and the validity of the proposed approach.

  4. Econometric estimation of investment utilization, adjustment costs, and technical efficiency in Danish pig farms using hyperbolic distance functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henningsen, Arne; Fabricius, Ole; Olsen, Jakob Vesterlund

    2014-01-01

    Based on a theoretical microeconomic model, we econometrically estimate investment utilization, adjustment costs, and technical efficiency in Danish pig farms based on a large unbalanced panel dataset. As our theoretical model indicates that adjustment costs are caused both by increased inputs...... of investment activities by the maximum likelihood method so that we can estimate the adjustment costs that occur in the year of the investment and the three following years. Our results show that investments are associated with significant adjustment costs, especially in the year in which the investment...

  5. Evaluation of cost estimates and calculation methods used by SKB

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-01-01

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel Management Co. (SKB) has estimated the costs for decommissioning the swedish nuclear power plants and managing the nuclear wastes in a 'traditional' manner i.e. by handling uncertainties through percentage additions. A 'normal' addition is used for uncertainties in specified technical systems. 'Extra' additions are used for systems uncertainties. An alternative method is suggested, using top-down principles for uncertainties, which should be applied successively, giving higher precision as the knowledge accumulates. This type of calculation can help project managers to identify and deal with areas common to different partial projects. A first step in this direction would be to perform sensitivity analyses for the most important calculation parameters. 21 refs

  6. Cost estimate of a nuclear power phaseout in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmitt, D.

    1999-01-01

    Nuclear power phaseout costing is an extremely complex task, as a multitude of aspects affecting the economy at large as well as specific industrial branches, and both direct and indirect effects are to be identified and considered. Another question arising is the general approach to be taken, as such an estimate may be done e.g. from the angle of an electric utility, or the electricity consumers, tax payers, or that of the national economy. In addition, the strategy and time frame of the phaseout scenario play a major role, which is a decision of policy. The article discusses a number of approaches as addressed above and emphasises that any approach or scenario elaborated is based on very different, specific assumptions requiring individual interpretation of results plus supplementary parameter variation and sensitivity calculations. (orig./CB) [de

  7. Cost estimation of HVDC transmission system of Bangka's NPP candidates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liun, Edwaren; Suparman

    2014-09-01

    Regarding nuclear power plant development in Bangka Island, it can be estimated that produced power will be oversupply for the Bangka Island and needs to transmit to Sumatra or Java Island. The distance between the regions or islands causing considerable loss of power in transmission by alternating current, and a wide range of technical and economical issues. The objective of this paper addresses to economics analysis of direct current transmission system to overcome those technical problem. Direct current transmission has a stable characteristic, so that the power delivery from Bangka to Sumatra or Java in a large scale efficiently and reliably can be done. HVDC system costs depend on the power capacity applied to the system and length of the transmission line in addition to other variables that may be different.

  8. Cost Estimation Techniques for C3I System Software.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1984-07-01

    opment manmonth have been determined for maxi, midi , and mini .1 type computers. Small to median size timeshared developments used 0.2 to 1.5 hours...development schedule 1.23 1.00 1.10 2.1.3 Detailed Model The final codification of the COCOMO regressions was the development of separate effort...regardless of the software structure level being estimated: D8VC -- the expected development computer (maxi. midi . mini, micro) MODE -- the expected

  9. Baseline Assessment of the Department of the Army Cost Estimating and Analysis (CE/A) and Cost Management (CM) Capabilities

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Doyle, Michael C

    2005-01-01

    .../A) and cost management (CM) capabilities. In particular, it supports the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Army- Cost AND Economics' mission to provide DA with cost, performance and economic analysis in the form of expertise, models, data...

  10. Modelling the healthcare costs of skin cancer in South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, Louisa G; Elliott, Thomas M; Wright, Caradee Y; Deghaye, Nicola; Visser, Willie

    2016-04-02

    Skin cancer is a growing public health problem in South Africa due to its high ambient ultraviolet radiation environment. The purpose of this study was to estimate the annual health system costs of cutaneous melanoma, squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) and basal cell carcinoma (BCC) in South Africa, incorporating both the public and private sectors. A cost-of-illness study was used to measure the economic burden of skin cancer and a 'bottom-up' micro-costing approach. Clinicians provided data on the patterns of care and treatments while national costing reports and clinician fees provided cost estimates. The mean costs per melanoma and per SCC/BCC were extrapolated to estimate national costs using published incidence data and official population statistics. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were undertaken to address the uncertainty of the parameters used in the model. The estimated total annual cost of treating skin cancers in South Africa were ZAR 92.4 million (2015) (or US$15.7 million). Sensitivity analyses showed that the total costs could vary between ZAR 89.7 to 94.6 million (US$15.2 to $16.1 million) when melanoma-related variables were changed and between ZAR 78.4 to 113.5 million ($13.3 to $19.3 million) when non-melanoma-related variables were changed. The primary drivers of overall costs were the cost of excisions, follow-up care, radical lymph node dissection, cryotherapy and radiation therapy. The cost of managing skin cancer in South Africa is sizable. Since skin cancer is largely preventable through improvements to sun-protection awareness and skin cancer prevention programs, this study highlights these healthcare resources could be used for other pressing public health problems in South Africa.

  11. Model reduction by weighted Component Cost Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jae H.; Skelton, Robert E.

    1990-01-01

    Component Cost Analysis considers any given system driven by a white noise process as an interconnection of different components, and assigns a metric called 'component cost' to each component. These component costs measure the contribution of each component to a predefined quadratic cost function. A reduced-order model of the given system may be obtained by deleting those components that have the smallest component costs. The theory of Component Cost Analysis is extended to include finite-bandwidth colored noises. The results also apply when actuators have dynamics of their own. Closed-form analytical expressions of component costs are also derived for a mechanical system described by its modal data. This is very useful to compute the modal costs of very high order systems. A numerical example for MINIMAST system is presented.

  12. Taking the Evolutionary Road to Developing an In-House Cost Estimate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacintho, David; Esker, Lind; Herman, Frank; Lavaque, Rodolfo; Regardie, Myma

    2011-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the process and some of the problems and challenges of developing an In-House Cost Estimate (IHCE). Using as an example the Space Network Ground Segment Sustainment (SGSS) project, the presentation reviews the phases for developing a Cost estimate within the project to estimate government and contractor project costs to support a budget request.

  13. 48 CFR 1852.216-84 - Estimated cost and incentive fee.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... Provisions and Clauses 1852.216-84 Estimated cost and incentive fee. As prescribed in 1816.406-70(d), insert the following clause: Estimated Cost and Incentive Fee (OCT 1996) The target cost of this contract is $___. The target fee of this contract is $___. The total target cost and target fee as contemplated by the...

  14. Handbook for quick cost estimates. A method for developing quick approximate estimates of costs for generic actions for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ball, J.R.

    1986-04-01

    This document is a supplement to a ''Handbook for Cost Estimating'' (NUREG/CR-3971) and provides specific guidance for developing ''quick'' approximate estimates of the cost of implementing generic regulatory requirements for nuclear power plants. A method is presented for relating the known construction costs for new nuclear power plants (as contained in the Energy Economic Data Base) to the cost of performing similar work, on a back-fit basis, at existing plants. Cost factors are presented to account for variations in such important cost areas as construction labor productivity, engineering and quality assurance, replacement energy, reworking of existing features, and regional variations in the cost of materials and labor. Other cost categories addressed in this handbook include those for changes in plant operating personnel and plant documents, licensee costs, NRC costs, and costs for other government agencies. Data sheets, worksheets, and appropriate cost algorithms are included to guide the user through preparation of rough estimates. A sample estimate is prepared using the method and the estimating tools provided

  15. Handbook for quick cost estimates. A method for developing quick approximate estimates of costs for generic actions for nuclear power plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ball, J.R.

    1986-04-01

    This document is a supplement to a ''Handbook for Cost Estimating'' (NUREG/CR-3971) and provides specific guidance for developing ''quick'' approximate estimates of the cost of implementing generic regulatory requirements for nuclear power plants. A method is presented for relating the known construction costs for new nuclear power plants (as contained in the Energy Economic Data Base) to the cost of performing similar work, on a back-fit basis, at existing plants. Cost factors are presented to account for variations in such important cost areas as construction labor productivity, engineering and quality assurance, replacement energy, reworking of existing features, and regional variations in the cost of materials and labor. Other cost categories addressed in this handbook include those for changes in plant operating personnel and plant documents, licensee costs, NRC costs, and costs for other government agencies. Data sheets, worksheets, and appropriate cost algorithms are included to guide the user through preparation of rough estimates. A sample estimate is prepared using the method and the estimating tools provided.

  16. Cost estimate for the production of ethanol from spent sulphite liquors and wood residues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nguyen, Q.

    1990-03-01

    A Lotus 1-2-3 spreadsheet model for estimating the production cost of 95 wt % ethanol from spent sulfite liquors (SSL) and from a wood hydrolysis front-end is described. The most economically attractive process is the fermentation of softwood SSL (SSSL) by the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae, yielding a production cost estimate of $0.47/liter. The cost of producing ethanol from cellulosic waste (clarifier sludge) via acid hydrolysis is approximately $0.55/liter, still below the market price of ca $0.60/liter for industrial ethanol. Neither the fermentation of hardwood SSL nor the conversion of sawdust to ethanol, using current technology, are economically viable. However, these processes can become commercially viable if acetic acid-tolerant xylose-fermenting yeasts can be found. 17 refs., 12 figs., 16 tabs

  17. Estimation of environmental external costs between coal fired power plant and nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moon, G. H.; Kim, S. S.

    2000-01-01

    First of all, this study evaluated the impacts on the health and the environment of air pollutants emitted from coal power plant and nuclear power pant, two major electric power generating options in Korea. Then, the environmental external costs of those two options were estimated by transforming the health and environment impact into monetary values. To do this, AIRPACTS and Impacts of Atmospheric Release model developed by IAEA were used. The environmental external cost of Samcheonpo coal power plant was estimated about 25 times as much as that of Younggwang nuclear power plant. This result implies that nuclear power plant is a clean technology compared with coal power plant. This study suggests that the external cost should be reflected in the electric system expansion plan in order to allocate energy resources efficiently and to reduce economic impact stemming from the environmental regulation emerged recently on a global level

  18. Cost Models for MMC Manufacturing Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elzey, Dana M.; Wadley, Haydn N. G.

    1996-01-01

    Processes for the manufacture of advanced metal matrix composites are rapidly approaching maturity in the research laboratory and there is growing interest in their transition to industrial production. However, research conducted to date has almost exclusively focused on overcoming the technical barriers to producing high-quality material and little attention has been given to the economical feasibility of these laboratory approaches and process cost issues. A quantitative cost modeling (QCM) approach was developed to address these issues. QCM are cost analysis tools based on predictive process models relating process conditions to the attributes of the final product. An important attribute, of the QCM approach is the ability to predict the sensitivity of material production costs to product quality and to quantitatively explore trade-offs between cost and quality. Applications of the cost models allow more efficient direction of future MMC process technology development and a more accurate assessment of MMC market potential. Cost models were developed for two state-of-the art metal matrix composite (MMC) manufacturing processes: tape casting and plasma spray deposition. Quality and Cost models are presented for both processes and the resulting predicted quality-cost curves are presented and discussed.

  19. Estimating cost ratio distribution between fatal and non-fatal road accidents in Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamdan, Nurhidayah; Daud, Noorizam

    2014-07-01

    Road traffic crashes are a global major problem, and should be treated as a shared responsibility. In Malaysia, road accident tragedies kill 6,917 people and injure or disable 17,522 people in year 2012, and government spent about RM9.3 billion in 2009 which cost the nation approximately 1 to 2 percent loss of gross domestic product (GDP) reported annually. The current cost ratio for fatal and non-fatal accident used by Ministry of Works Malaysia simply based on arbitrary value of 6:4 or equivalent 1.5:1 depends on the fact that there are six factors involved in the calculation accident cost for fatal accident while four factors for non-fatal accident. The simple indication used by the authority to calculate the cost ratio is doubted since there is lack of mathematical and conceptual evidence to explain how this ratio is determined. The main aim of this study is to determine the new accident cost ratio for fatal and non-fatal accident in Malaysia based on quantitative statistical approach. The cost ratio distributions will be estimated based on Weibull distribution. Due to the unavailability of official accident cost data, insurance claim data both for fatal and non-fatal accident have been used as proxy information for the actual accident cost. There are two types of parameter estimates used in this study, which are maximum likelihood (MLE) and robust estimation. The findings of this study reveal that accident cost ratio for fatal and non-fatal claim when using MLE is 1.33, while, for robust estimates, the cost ratio is slightly higher which is 1.51. This study will help the authority to determine a more accurate cost ratio between fatal and non-fatal accident as compared to the official ratio set by the government, since cost ratio is an important element to be used as a weightage in modeling road accident related data. Therefore, this study provides some guidance tips to revise the insurance claim set by the Malaysia road authority, hence the appropriate method

  20. Ground-Based Telescope Parametric Cost Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahl, H. Philip; Rowell, Ginger Holmes

    2004-01-01

    A parametric cost model for ground-based telescopes is developed using multi-variable statistical analysis, The model includes both engineering and performance parameters. While diameter continues to be the dominant cost driver, other significant factors include primary mirror radius of curvature and diffraction limited wavelength. The model includes an explicit factor for primary mirror segmentation and/or duplication (i.e.. multi-telescope phased-array systems). Additionally, single variable models based on aperture diameter are derived. This analysis indicates that recent mirror technology advances have indeed reduced the historical telescope cost curve.

  1. Plural Governance: A Modified Transaction Cost Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mols, Niels Peter; Menard, Claude

    2014-01-01

    Plural governance is a form of governance where a firm both makes and buys similar goods or services. Despite a widespread use of plural governance there are no transaction cost models of how plural governance affects performance. This paper reviews the literature about plural forms and proposes...... a model relating transaction cost and resource-based variables to the cost of the plural form. The model is then used to analyze when the plural form is efficient compared to alternative governance structures. We also use the model to discuss the strength of three plural form synergies....

  2. Optimal replacement time estimation for machines and equipment based on cost function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Šebo

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with a multidisciplinary issue of estimating the optimal replacement time for the machines. Considered categories of machines, for which the optimization method is usable, are of the metallurgical and engineering production. Different models of cost function are considered (both with one and two variables. Parameters of the models were calculated through the least squares method. Models testing show that all are good enough, so for estimation of optimal replacement time is sufficient to use simpler models. In addition to the testing of models we developed the method (tested on selected simple model which enable us in actual real time (with limited data set to indicate the optimal replacement time. The indicated time moment is close enough to the optimal replacement time t*.

  3. Fuzzy/Neural Software Estimates Costs of Rocket-Engine Tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglas, Freddie; Bourgeois, Edit Kaminsky

    2005-01-01

    The Highly Accurate Cost Estimating Model (HACEM) is a software system for estimating the costs of testing rocket engines and components at Stennis Space Center. HACEM is built on a foundation of adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) a hybrid software concept that combines the adaptive capabilities of neural networks with the ease of development and additional benefits of fuzzy-logic-based systems. In ANFIS, fuzzy inference systems are trained by use of neural networks. HACEM includes selectable subsystems that utilize various numbers and types of inputs, various numbers of fuzzy membership functions, and various input-preprocessing techniques. The inputs to HACEM are parameters of specific tests or series of tests. These parameters include test type (component or engine test), number and duration of tests, and thrust level(s) (in the case of engine tests). The ANFIS in HACEM are trained by use of sets of these parameters, along with costs of past tests. Thereafter, the user feeds HACEM a simple input text file that contains the parameters of a planned test or series of tests, the user selects the desired HACEM subsystem, and the subsystem processes the parameters into an estimate of cost(s).

  4. Cost of Equity Estimation in Fuel and Energy Sector Companies Based on CAPM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kozieł Diana

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The article presents cost of equity estimation of capital groups from the fuel and energy sector, listed at the Warsaw Stock Exchange, based on the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM. The objective of the article was to perform a valuation of equity with the application of CAPM, based on actual financial data and stock exchange data and to carry out a sensitivity analysis of such cost, depending on the financing structure of the entity. The objective of the article formulated in this manner has determined its’ structure. It focuses on presentation of substantive analyses related to the core of equity and methods of estimating its’ costs, with special attention given to the CAPM. In the practical section, estimation of cost was performed according to the CAPM methodology, based on the example of leading fuel and energy companies, such as Tauron GE and PGE. Simultaneously, sensitivity analysis of such cost was performed depending on the structure of financing the company’s operation.

  5. An empiric estimate of the value of life: updating the renal dialysis cost-effectiveness standard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Chris P; Chertow, Glenn M; Zenios, Stefanos A

    2009-01-01

    Proposals to make decisions about coverage of new technology by comparing the technology's incremental cost-effectiveness with the traditional benchmark of dialysis imply that the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of dialysis is seen a proxy for the value of a statistical year of life. The frequently used ratio for dialysis has, however, not been updated to reflect more recently available data on dialysis. We developed a computer simulation model for the end-stage renal disease population and compared cost, life expectancy, and quality adjusted life expectancy of current dialysis practice relative to three less costly alternatives and to no dialysis. We estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for these alternatives relative to the next least costly alternative and no dialysis and analyzed the population distribution of the ratios. Model parameters and costs were estimated using data from the Medicare population and a large integrated health-care delivery system between 1996 and 2003. The sensitivity of results to model assumptions was tested using 38 scenarios of one-way sensitivity analysis, where parameters informing the cost, utility, mortality and morbidity, etc. components of the model were by perturbed +/-50%. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of dialysis of current practice relative to the next least costly alternative is on average $129,090 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) ($61,294 per year), but its distribution within the population is wide; the interquartile range is $71,890 per QALY, while the 1st and 99th percentiles are $65,496 and $488,360 per QALY, respectively. Higher incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were associated with older age and more comorbid conditions. Sensitivity to model parameters was comparatively small, with most of the scenarios leading to a change of less than 10% in the ratio. The value of a statistical year of life implied by dialysis practice currently averages $129,090 per QALY ($61,294 per year), but

  6. Estimating Stochastic Volatility Models using Prediction-based Estimating Functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lunde, Asger; Brix, Anne Floor

    to the performance of the GMM estimator based on conditional moments of integrated volatility from Bollerslev and Zhou (2002). The case where the observed log-price process is contaminated by i.i.d. market microstructure (MMS) noise is also investigated. First, the impact of MMS noise on the parameter estimates from......In this paper prediction-based estimating functions (PBEFs), introduced in Sørensen (2000), are reviewed and PBEFs for the Heston (1993) stochastic volatility model are derived. The finite sample performance of the PBEF based estimator is investigated in a Monte Carlo study, and compared...... to correctly account for the noise are investigated. Our Monte Carlo study shows that the estimator based on PBEFs outperforms the GMM estimator, both in the setting with and without MMS noise. Finally, an empirical application investigates the possible challenges and general performance of applying the PBEF...

  7. Global CO2 efficiency: Country-wise estimates using a stochastic cost frontier

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herrala, Risto; Goel, Rajeev K.

    2012-01-01

    This paper examines global carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) efficiency by employing a stochastic cost frontier analysis of about 170 countries in 1997 and 2007. The main contribution lies in providing a new approach to environmental efficiency estimation, in which the efficiency estimates quantify the distance from the policy objective of minimum emissions. We are able to examine a very large pool of nations and provide country-wise efficiency estimates. We estimate three econometric models, corresponding with alternative interpretations of the Cancun vision (Conference of the Parties 2011). The models reveal progress in global environmental efficiency during a preceding decade. The estimates indicate vast differences in efficiency levels, and efficiency changes across countries. The highest efficiency levels are observed in Africa and Europe, while the lowest are clustered around China. The largest efficiency gains were observed in central and eastern Europe. CO 2 efficiency also improved in the US and China, the two largest emitters, but their ranking in terms of CO 2 efficiency deteriorated. Policy implications are discussed. - Highlights: ► We estimate global environmental efficiency in line with the Cancun vision, using a stochastic cost frontier. ► The study covers 170 countries during a 10 year period, ending in 2007. ► The biggest improvements occurred in Europe, and efficiency falls in South America. ► The efficiency ranking of US and China, the largest emitters, deteriorated. ► In 2007, highest efficiency was observed in Africa and Europe, and the lowest around China.

  8. Energetic costs of mange in wolves estimated from infrared thermography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cross, Paul C.; Almberg, Emily S.; Haase, Catherine G; Hudson, Peter J.; Maloney, Shane K; Metz, Matthew C; Munn, Adam J; Nugent, Paul; Putzeys, Olivier; Stahler, Daniel R.; Stewart, Anya C; Smith, Doug W.

    2016-01-01

    Parasites, by definition, extract energy from their hosts and thus affect trophic and food web dynamics even when the parasite may have limited effects on host population size. We studied the energetic costs of mange (Sarcoptes scabiei) in wolves (Canis lupus) using thermal cameras to estimate heat losses associated with compromised insulation during the winter. We combined the field data of known, naturally infected wolves with data set on captive wolves with shaved patches of fur as a positive control to simulate mange-induced hair loss. We predict that during the winter in Montana, more severe mange infection increases heat loss by around 5.2 to 12 MJ per night (1240 to 2850 kcal, or a 65% to 78% increase) for small and large wolves, respectively accounting for wind effects. To maintain body temperature would require a significant proportion of a healthy wolf's total daily energy demands (18-22 MJ/day). We also predict how these thermal costs may increase in colder climates by comparing our predictions in Bozeman, Montana to those from a place with lower ambient temperatures (Fairbanks, Alaska). Contrary to our expectations, the 14°C differential between these regions was not as important as the potential differences in wind speed. These large increases in energetic demands can be mitigated by either increasing consumption rates or decreasing other energy demands. Data from GPS-collared wolves indicated that healthy wolves move, on average, 17 km per day, which was reduced by 1.5, 1.8 and 6.5 km for light, medium, and severe hair loss. In addition, the wolf with the most hair loss was less active at night and more active during the day, which is the converse of the movement patterns of healthy wolves. At the individual level mange infections create significant energy demands and altered behavioral patterns, this may have cascading effects on prey consumption rates, food web dynamics, predator-prey interactions, and scavenger communities.

  9. Cost estimation: An expert-opinion approach. [cost analysis of research projects using the Delphi method (forecasting)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buffalano, C.; Fogleman, S.; Gielecki, M.

    1976-01-01

    A methodology is outlined which can be used to estimate the costs of research and development projects. The approach uses the Delphi technique a method developed by the Rand Corporation for systematically eliciting and evaluating group judgments in an objective manner. The use of the Delphi allows for the integration of expert opinion into the cost-estimating process in a consistent and rigorous fashion. This approach can also signal potential cost-problem areas. This result can be a useful tool in planning additional cost analysis or in estimating contingency funds. A Monte Carlo approach is also examined.

  10. Stated preferences based estimation of power interruption costs in private households: An example from Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Praktiknjo, Aaron J.

    2014-01-01

    Concerns regarding supply security are increasingly raised in reaction to the transition of the German energy system toward a renewable and nuclear-free system called “Energiewende”. The goal of this work is to contribute to a measurability of supply security by quantifying the consequences of power interruptions monetarily. The focus lies within the investigation of power interruption costs in private households. An online survey with 859 participants in 2011 is used to gather the necessary data. Based on this data, a two-staged bottom-up regression model was estimated to describe interruption costs for durations of 15 min, 1 h, 4 h, 1 day and 4 days. Finally, micro-data from 55,000 households were used to perform Monte Carlo simulations to increase the representativeness of the estimations. The frequency distributions of the estimated interruption costs indicate potentials for load-shedding measures. Such measures could be an economically viable contribution to a successful integration of large shares of renewable fluctuating generation like wind or solar power. - Highlights: • Power interruption costs have been analyzed for private households in Germany. • Five different interruption durations have been analyzed. • An online survey, a regression and a bottom-up simulation model has been used. • The results indicate interesting potentials for demand response measures. • Such measures might contribute to the integration of large shares of renewables

  11. Estimates of the costs of Kyoto: Marrakesh versus the McKibbin-Wilcoxen blueprint

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McKibbin, Warwick J.; Wilcoxen, Peter J.

    2004-01-01

    In this paper, we update our earlier estimates of the cost of the Kyoto Protocol using the G-Cubed model, taking into account the new sink allowances from recent negotiations as well as allowing for multiple gases and new land clearing estimates. We then compare the protocol to an alternative policy outlined in McKibbin et al. (Brookings Policy Brief, No. 17. June, The Brookings Institution, Washington, 1997; Climate Change Policy After Kyoto: A Blueprint for a Realistic Approach, The Brookings Institution, Washington, 2002a; J. Econom. Perspect. 16(2) (2002b) 107) that does not impose rigid emissions targets. We focus particular attention on the sensitivity of compliance costs under each policy to unexpected changes in future economic conditions. To illustrate the issue, we evaluate the policies under two plausible alternative assumptions about a single aspect of the future world economy: the rate of productivity growth in Russia. We find that moderate growth in Russia would raise the cost of the Kyoto Protocol by as much as 50 percent but would have little effect on the cost of the alternative policy. We conclude that the Kyoto Protocol is inherently unstable because unexpected future events could raise compliance costs substantially and place enormous pressure on governments to abrogate the agreement. The alternative policy would be far more stable because it does not subject future governments to adverse shocks in compliance costs

  12. Waste Management facilities cost information: System Cost Model Software Quality Assurance Plan. Revision 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, B.L.; Lundeen, A.S.

    1996-02-01

    In May of 1994, Lockheed Idaho Technologies Company (LITCO) in Idaho Falls, Idaho and subcontractors developed the System Cost Model (SCM) application. The SCM estimates life-cycle costs of the entire US Department of Energy (DOE) complex for designing; constructing; operating; and decommissioning treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD) facilities for mixed low-level, low-level, transuranic, and mixed transuranic waste. The SCM uses parametric cost functions to estimate life-cycle costs for various treatment, storage, and disposal modules which reflect planned and existing facilities at DOE installations. In addition, SCM can model new facilities based on capacity needs over the program life cycle. The SCM also provides transportation costs for truck and rail, which include transport of contact-handled, remote-handled, and alpha (transuranic) wastes. The user can provide input data (default data is included in the SCM) including the volume and nature of waste to be managed, the time period over which the waste is to be managed, and the configuration of the waste management complex (i.e., where each installation's generated waste will be treated, stored, and disposed). Then the SCM uses parametric cost equations to estimate the costs of pre-operations (designing), construction costs, operation management, and decommissioning these waste management facilities. For the product to be effective and useful the SCM users must have a high level of confidence in the data generated by the software model. The SCM Software Quality Assurance Plan is part of the overall SCM project management effort to ensure that the SCM is maintained as a quality product and can be relied on to produce viable planning data. This document defines tasks and deliverables to ensure continued product integrity, provide increased confidence in the accuracy of the data generated, and meet the LITCO's quality standards during the software maintenance phase. 8 refs., 1 tab

  13. Waste Management facilities cost information: System Cost Model Software Quality Assurance Plan. Revision 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peterson, B.L.; Lundeen, A.S.

    1996-02-01

    In May of 1994, Lockheed Idaho Technologies Company (LITCO) in Idaho Falls, Idaho and subcontractors developed the System Cost Model (SCM) application. The SCM estimates life-cycle costs of the entire US Department of Energy (DOE) complex for designing; constructing; operating; and decommissioning treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD) facilities for mixed low-level, low-level, transuranic, and mixed transuranic waste. The SCM uses parametric cost functions to estimate life-cycle costs for various treatment, storage, and disposal modules which reflect planned and existing facilities at DOE installations. In addition, SCM can model new facilities based on capacity needs over the program life cycle. The SCM also provides transportation costs for truck and rail, which include transport of contact-handled, remote-handled, and alpha (transuranic) wastes. The user can provide input data (default data is included in the SCM) including the volume and nature of waste to be managed, the time period over which the waste is to be managed, and the configuration of the waste management complex (i.e., where each installation`s generated waste will be treated, stored, and disposed). Then the SCM uses parametric cost equations to estimate the costs of pre-operations (designing), construction costs, operation management, and decommissioning these waste management facilities. For the product to be effective and useful the SCM users must have a high level of confidence in the data generated by the software model. The SCM Software Quality Assurance Plan is part of the overall SCM project management effort to ensure that the SCM is maintained as a quality product and can be relied on to produce viable planning data. This document defines tasks and deliverables to ensure continued product integrity, provide increased confidence in the accuracy of the data generated, and meet the LITCO`s quality standards during the software maintenance phase. 8 refs., 1 tab.

  14. Modeling of Construction Cost of Villas in Oman

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MA Al-Mohsin

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In this research, a model for estimating construction cost of villas is presented. The model takes into account four major factors affecting villa's cost, namely: built up area, number of toilets, number of bedrooms and the number of stories. A field survey was conducted to collect information required for such model using data collection form designed by the researchers. Information about 150 villas was collected from six well experienced consultants in the field of villa design and supervision in Oman. Collected data was analyzed to develop suggested model which consists of two main levels of estimate. The first level is at the conceptual design stage where the client presents his/her need of space and basic information about the available plot for construction. The second level of cost estimation is carried out after the preliminary design stage where the client has to decide on the finishes and type of structure. At the second level of estimation, the client should be able to decide whether to precede for construction or not, according to his/her budget. The model is general and can be used anywhere and was validated for accepted degree of confidence using the actual cost of the 112 executed villa projects in Oman. The villas included in this study were owned by clients from both high and low income brackets and had different types of finishing material. The developed equations showed good correlation between the selected variables and the actual cost with R2  = 0.79 in the case of conceptual estimate and R2  = 0.601 for preliminary estimate.

  15. Estimating pharmacy level prescription drug acquisition costs for third-party reimbursement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreling, D H; Kirk, K W

    1986-07-01

    Accurate payment for the acquisition costs of drug products dispensed is an important consideration in a third-party prescription drug program. Two alternative methods of estimating these costs among pharmacies were derived and compared. First, pharmacists were surveyed to determine the purchase discounts offered to them by wholesalers. A 10.00% modal and 11.35% mean discount resulted for 73 responding pharmacists. Second, cost-plus percents derived from gross profit margins of wholesalers were calculated and applied to wholesaler product costs to estimate pharmacy level acquisition costs. Cost-plus percents derived from National Median and Southwestern Region wholesaler figures were 9.27% and 10.10%, respectively. A comparison showed the two methods of estimating acquisition costs would result in similar acquisition cost estimates. Adopting a cost-plus estimating approach is recommended because it avoids potential pricing manipulations by wholesalers and manufacturers that would negate improvements in drug product reimbursement accuracy.

  16. Using Multiple and Logistic Regression to Estimate the Median WillCost and Probability of Cost and Schedule Overrun for Program Managers

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-03-23

    Logistic Regression to Estimate the Median Will-Cost and Probability of Cost and Schedule Overrun for Program Managers Ryan C. Trudelle, B.S...not the other. We are able to give logistic regression models to program managers that identify several program characteristics for either...considered acceptable. We recommend the use of our logistic models as a tool to manage a portfolio of programs in order to gain potential elusive

  17. From Costs to Business Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kejser, Ulla Bøgvad

    2015-01-01

    This deliverable discusses business models for digital curation. It helps organisations to understand the requirements and drivers for curation services from a supplier and demand side. We investigated existing services and have developed guidelines to address new business opportunities...

  18. Report on estimated nuclear energy related cost for fiscal 1991

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-01-01

    The report first describes major actions planned to be taken in Japan in fiscal 1991 in the field of nuclear energy utilization. Major activities to be made for comprehensive strengthening of safety assurance measures are described, focusing on improvement of nuclear energy related safety regulations, promotion of research for safety assurance, improvement and strengthening of disaster prevention measures, environmental radioactivity surveys, control of exposure of workers engaged in radioactivity related jobs, etc. The report then describes actions required for the establishment of a nuclear fuel cycle, focusing on the procurement of uranium resources, establishment of a uranium enrichment process, reprocessing of spent fuel, application of recovered uranium, etc. Other activities are required for the development of new type reactors, effective application of plutonium, development of basic techniques, international contributions, cooperation with the public. Then, the report summarizes estimated costs required for the activities to be performed by the Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute, Power Reactor and Nuclear Fuel Development Corporation, National Institute of Radiological Sciences, Institute of Physical and Chemical Research. (N.K.)

  19. An innovative multivariate tool for fuel consumption and costs estimation of agricultural operations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirko Guerrieri

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The estimation of operating costs of agricultural and forestry machineries is a key factor in both planning agricultural policies and farm management. Few works have tried to estimate operating costs and the produced models are normally based on deterministic approaches. Conversely, in the statistical model randomness is present and variable states are not described by unique values, but rather by probability distributions. In this study, for the first time, a multivariate statistical model based on Partial Least Squares (PLS was adopted to predict the fuel consumption and costs of six agricultural operations such as: ploughing, harrowing, fertilization, sowing, weed control and shredding. The prediction was conducted on two steps: first of all few initial selected parameters (time per surface-area unit, maximum engine power, purchase price of the tractor and purchase price of the operating machinery were used to estimate the fuel consumption; then the predicted fuel consumption together with the initial parameters were used to estimate the operational costs. Since the obtained models were based on an input dataset very heterogeneous, these resulted to be extremely efficient and so generalizable and robust. In details the results show prediction values in the test with r always ≥ 0.91. Thus, the approach may results extremely useful for both farmers (in terms of economic advantages and at institutional level (representing an innovative and efficient tool for planning future Rural Development Programmes and the Common Agricultural Policy. In light of these advantages the proposed approach may as well be implemented on a web platform and made available to all the stakeholders.

  20. An innovative multivariate tool for fuel consumption and costs estimation of agricultural operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guerrieri, M.; Fedrizzi, M.; Antonucci, F.; Pallottino, F.; Sperandio, G.; Pagano, M.; Figorilli, S.; Menesatti, P.; Costa, C.

    2016-01-01

    The estimation of operating costs of agricultural and forestry machineries is a key factor in both planning agricultural policies and farm management. Few works have tried to estimate operating costs and the produced models are normally based on deterministic approaches. Conversely, in the statistical model randomness is present and variable states are not described by unique values, but rather by probability distributions. In this study, for the first time, a multivariate statistical model based on Partial Least Squares (PLS) was adopted to predict the fuel consumption and costs of six agricultural operations such as: ploughing, harrowing, fertilization, sowing, weed control and shredding. The prediction was conducted on two steps: first of all few initial selected parameters (time per surface-area unit, maximum engine power, purchase price of the tractor and purchase price of the operating machinery) were used to estimate the fuel consumption; then the predicted fuel consumption together with the initial parameters were used to estimate the operational costs. Since the obtained models were based on an input dataset very heterogeneous, these resulted to be extremely efficient and so generalizable and robust. In details the results show prediction values in the test with r always ≥ 0.91. Thus, the approach may results extremely useful for both farmers (in terms of economic advantages) and at institutional level (representing an innovative and efficient tool for planning future Rural Development Programmes and the Common Agricultural Policy). In light of these advantages the proposed approach may as well be implemented on a web platform and made available to all the stakeholders.

  1. An innovative multivariate tool for fuel consumption and costs estimation of agricultural operations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guerrieri, M.; Fedrizzi, M.; Antonucci, F.; Pallottino, F.; Sperandio, G.; Pagano, M.; Figorilli, S.; Menesatti, P.; Costa, C.

    2016-07-01

    The estimation of operating costs of agricultural and forestry machineries is a key factor in both planning agricultural policies and farm management. Few works have tried to estimate operating costs and the produced models are normally based on deterministic approaches. Conversely, in the statistical model randomness is present and variable states are not described by unique values, but rather by probability distributions. In this study, for the first time, a multivariate statistical model based on Partial Least Squares (PLS) was adopted to predict the fuel consumption and costs of six agricultural operations such as: ploughing, harrowing, fertilization, sowing, weed control and shredding. The prediction was conducted on two steps: first of all few initial selected parameters (time per surface-area unit, maximum engine power, purchase price of the tractor and purchase price of the operating machinery) were used to estimate the fuel consumption; then the predicted fuel consumption together with the initial parameters were used to estimate the operational costs. Since the obtained models were based on an input dataset very heterogeneous, these resulted to be extremely efficient and so generalizable and robust. In details the results show prediction values in the test with r always ≥ 0.91. Thus, the approach may results extremely useful for both farmers (in terms of economic advantages) and at institutional level (representing an innovative and efficient tool for planning future Rural Development Programmes and the Common Agricultural Policy). In light of these advantages the proposed approach may as well be implemented on a web platform and made available to all the stakeholders.

  2. A level playing field: Obtaining consistent cost estimates for advanced reactor designs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hudson, C.R. II; Rohm, H.H.; Humphreys, J.R. Jr.

    1987-01-01

    Rules and guidelines for developing cost estimates are given which provide a means for presenting cost estimates for advanced concepts on a consistent and equitable basis. For advanced reactor designs, the scope of a cost estimate includes the plant capital cost, the operating and maintenance cost, the fuel cycle cost, and the cost of decommissioning. Each element is subdivided as is necessary to provide a common reporting format for all power plant concepts. The total generation cost is taken to be a suitable choice for a summary figure of merit. To test the application of the rules and guidelines as well as developing reference costs for current technologies, several different sized coal and pressurized water reactor plant cost estimates have been prepared

  3. Cost effectiveness of recycling: A systems model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tonjes, David J., E-mail: david.tonjes@stonybrook.edu [Department of Technology and Society, College of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY 11794-3560 (United States); Waste Reduction and Management Institute, School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY 11794-5000 (United States); Center for Bioenergy Research and Development, Advanced Energy Research and Technology Center, Stony Brook University, 1000 Innovation Rd., Stony Brook, NY 11794-6044 (United States); Mallikarjun, Sreekanth, E-mail: sreekanth.mallikarjun@stonybrook.edu [Department of Technology and Society, College of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY 11794-3560 (United States)

    2013-11-15

    Highlights: • Curbside collection of recyclables reduces overall system costs over a range of conditions. • When avoided costs for recyclables are large, even high collection costs are supported. • When avoided costs for recyclables are not great, there are reduced opportunities for savings. • For common waste compositions, maximizing curbside recyclables collection always saves money. - Abstract: Financial analytical models of waste management systems have often found that recycling costs exceed direct benefits, and in order to economically justify recycling activities, externalities such as household expenses or environmental impacts must be invoked. Certain more empirically based studies have also found that recycling is more expensive than disposal. Other work, both through models and surveys, have found differently. Here we present an empirical systems model, largely drawn from a suburban Long Island municipality. The model accounts for changes in distribution of effort as recycling tonnages displace disposal tonnages, and the seven different cases examined all show that curbside collection programs that manage up to between 31% and 37% of the waste stream should result in overall system savings. These savings accrue partially because of assumed cost differences in tip fees for recyclables and disposed wastes, and also because recycling can result in a more efficient, cost-effective collection program. These results imply that increases in recycling are justifiable due to cost-savings alone, not on more difficult to measure factors that may not impact program budgets.

  4. Cost and Performance Model for Photovoltaic Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borden, C. S.; Smith, J. H.; Davisson, M. C.; Reiter, L. J.

    1986-01-01

    Lifetime cost and performance (LCP) model assists in assessment of design options for photovoltaic systems. LCP is simulation of performance, cost, and revenue streams associated with photovoltaic power systems connected to electric-utility grid. LCP provides user with substantial flexibility in specifying technical and economic environment of application.

  5. Uncertainty quantification metrics for whole product life cycle cost estimates in aerospace innovation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwabe, O.; Shehab, E.; Erkoyuncu, J.

    2015-08-01

    The lack of defensible methods for quantifying cost estimate uncertainty over the whole product life cycle of aerospace innovations such as propulsion systems or airframes poses a significant challenge to the creation of accurate and defensible cost estimates. Based on the axiomatic definition of uncertainty as the actual prediction error of the cost estimate, this paper provides a comprehensive overview of metrics used for the uncertainty quantification of cost estimates based on a literature review, an evaluation of publicly funded projects such as part of the CORDIS or Horizon 2020 programs, and an analysis of established approaches used by organizations such NASA, the U.S. Department of Defence, the ESA, and various commercial companies. The metrics are categorized based on their foundational character (foundations), their use in practice (state-of-practice), their availability for practice (state-of-art) and those suggested for future exploration (state-of-future). Insights gained were that a variety of uncertainty quantification metrics exist whose suitability depends on the volatility of available relevant information, as defined by technical and cost readiness level, and the number of whole product life cycle phases the estimate is intended to be valid for. Information volatility and number of whole product life cycle phases can hereby be considered as defining multi-dimensional probability fields admitting various uncertainty quantification metric families with identifiable thresholds for transitioning between them. The key research gaps identified were the lacking guidance grounded in theory for the selection of uncertainty quantification metrics and lacking practical alternatives to metrics based on the Central Limit Theorem. An innovative uncertainty quantification framework consisting of; a set-theory based typology, a data library, a classification system, and a corresponding input-output model are put forward to address this research gap as the basis

  6. Worldwide Anti-Money Laundering: Regulation: Estimating the Costs and Benefits

    OpenAIRE

    D. Masciandaro; R. Barone

    2008-01-01

    The aim of this article is to offer a simple framework for estimating the benefits and costs of anti-ML regulation, based on a prudent estimation of the economic value of worldwide money laundering. Using the multiplier model of the relationship between criminal markets revenues and money laundering activities and data for 2004, the value of money laundering is equal to US$1.2 trillion (2.7% of the world GDP), while the maximum theoretical benefit in combating money laundering using financial...

  7. MODERN APPROACHES TO INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY COST ESTIMATION UNDER CRISIS CONDITIONS FROM CONSUMER QUALITY PRESERVATION VIEWPOINT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. N. Alexandrov

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Various intellectual property (IP estimation approaches and innovations in this field are discussed. Problem situations and «bottlenecks» in the economic mechanism of transformation of innovations into useful products and services are defined. Main international IP evaluation methods are described, particular attention being paid to «Quick Inside» program defined as latest generation global expert system. IP income and expense evaluation methods used in domestic practice are discussed. Possibility of using the Black-Scholes optional model to estimate costs of non-material assets is studied.

  8. Modelling the Costs of Preserving Digital Assets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kejser, Ulla Bøgvad; Nielsen, Anders Bo; Thirifays, Alex

    2012-01-01

    Information is increasingly being produced in digital form, and some of it must be preserved for the longterm. Digital preservation includes a series of actively managed activities that require on-going funding. To obtain sufficient resources, there is a need for assessing the costs...... and the benefits accrued by preserving the assets. Cost data is also needed for optimizing activities and comparing the costs of different preservation alternatives. The purpose of this study is to analyse generic requirements for modelling the cost of preserving digital assets. The analysis was based...

  9. The COST model for calculation of forest operations costs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ackerman, P.; Belbo, H.; Eliasson, L.; Jong, de J.J.; Lazdins, A.; Lyons, J.

    2014-01-01

    Since the late nineteenth century when high-cost equipment was introduced into forestry there has been a need to calculate the cost of this equipment in more detail with respect to, for example, cost of ownership, cost per hour of production, and cost per production unit. Machine cost calculations

  10. Model checking exact cost for attack scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aslanyan, Zaruhi; Nielson, Flemming

    2017-01-01

    Attack trees constitute a powerful tool for modelling security threats. Many security analyses of attack trees can be seamlessly expressed as model checking of Markov Decision Processes obtained from the attack trees, thus reaping the benefits of a coherent framework and a mature tool support....... However, current model checking does not encompass the exact cost analysis of an attack, which is standard for attack trees. Our first contribution is the logic erPCTL with cost-related operators. The extended logic allows to analyse the probability of an event satisfying given cost bounds and to compute...... the exact cost of an event. Our second contribution is the model checking algorithm for erPCTL. Finally, we apply our framework to the analysis of attack trees....

  11. Environmental Parametric Cost Model in Oil and Gas EPC Contracts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Madjid Abbaspour

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This study aims at identifying the parameters that govern the environmental costs in oil and gas projects. An initial conceptual model was proposed. Next, the costs of environmental management work packages were estimated, separately and were applied in project control tools (WBS/CBS. Then, an environmental parametric cost model was designed to determine the environmental costs and relevant weighting factors. The suggested model can be considered as an innovative approach to designate the environmental indicators in oil and gas projects. The validity of variables was investigated based on Delphi method. The results indicated that the project environmental management’s weighting factor is 0.87% of total project’s weighting factor.

  12. Uncertainties in Early Stage Capital Cost Estimation of Process Design – A case study on biorefinery design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gurkan eSin

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Capital investment, next to the product demand, sales and production costs, is one of the key metrics commonly used for project evaluation and feasibility assessment. Estimating the investment costs of a new product/process alternative during early stage design is a challenging task. This is especially important in biorefinery research, where available information and experiences with new technologies is limited. A systematic methodology for uncertainty analysis of cost data is proposed that employs (a Bootstrapping as a regression method when cost data is available and (b the Monte Carlo technique as an error propagation method based on expert input when cost data is not available. Four well-known models for early stage cost estimation are reviewed an analyzed using the methodology. The significance of uncertainties of cost data for early stage process design is highlighted using the synthesis and design of a biorefinery as a case study. The impact of uncertainties in cost estimation on the identification of optimal processing paths is found to be profound. To tackle this challenge, a comprehensive techno-economic risk analysis framework is presented to enable robust decision making under uncertainties. One of the results using an order-of-magnitude estimate shows that the production of diethyl ether and 1,3-butadiene are the most promising with economic risks of 0.24 MM$/a and 4.6 MM$/a due to uncertainties in cost estimations, respectively.

  13. ABC estimation of unit costs for emergency department services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes, R L; Schroeder, R E

    1996-04-01

    Rapid evolution of the health care industry forces managers to make cost-effective decisions. Typical hospital cost accounting systems do not provide emergency department managers with the information needed, but emergency department settings are so complex and dynamic as to make the more accurate activity-based costing (ABC) system prohibitively expensive. Through judicious use of the available traditional cost accounting information and simple computer spreadsheets. managers may approximate the decision-guiding information that would result from the much more costly and time-consuming implementation of ABC.

  14. Nonparametric estimation in models for unobservable heterogeneity

    OpenAIRE

    Hohmann, Daniel

    2014-01-01

    Nonparametric models which allow for data with unobservable heterogeneity are studied. The first publication introduces new estimators and their asymptotic properties for conditional mixture models. The second publication considers estimation of a function from noisy observations of its Radon transform in a Gaussian white noise model.

  15. MCMC estimation of multidimensional IRT models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beguin, Anton; Glas, Cornelis A.W.

    1998-01-01

    A Bayesian procedure to estimate the three-parameter normal ogive model and a generalization to a model with multidimensional ability parameters are discussed. The procedure is a generalization of a procedure by J. Albert (1992) for estimating the two-parameter normal ogive model. The procedure will

  16. Automated cost modeling for coal combustion systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowe, R.M.; Anast, K.R.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports on cost information developed at AMAX R and D Center for coal-water slurry production implemented in an automated spreadsheet (Lotus 123) for personal computer use. The spreadsheet format allows the user toe valuate impacts of various process options, coal feedstock characteristics, fuel characteristics, plant location sites, and plant sizes on fuel cost. Model flexibility reduces time and labor required to determine fuel costs and provides a basis to compare fuels manufactured by different processes. The model input includes coal characteristics, plant flowsheet definition, plant size, and market location. Based on these inputs, selected unit operations are chosen for coal processing

  17. Computerized cost model for pressurized water reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meneely, T.K.; Tabata, Hiroaki; Labourey, P.

    1999-01-01

    A computerized cost model has been developed in order to allow utility users to improve their familiarity with pressurized water reactor overnight capital costs and the various factors which influence them. This model organizes its cost data in the standard format of the Energy Economic Data Base (EEDB), and encapsulates simplified relationships between physical plant design information and capital cost information in a computer code. Model calculations are initiated from a base case, which was established using traditional cost calculation techniques. The user enters a set of plant design parameters, selected to allow consideration of plant models throughout the typical three- and four-loop PWR power range, and for plant sites in Japan, Europe, and the United States. Calculation of the new capital cost is then performed in a very brief time. The presentation of the program's output allows comparison of various cases with each other or with separately calculated baseline data. The user can start at a high level summary, and by selecting values of interest on a display grid show progressively more and more detailed information, including links to background information such as individual cost driver accounts and physical plant variables for each case. Graphical presentation of the comparison summaries is provided, and the numerical results may be exported to a spreadsheet for further processing. (author)

  18. Final report on cost estimate of forward superconducting air core toroid

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fields, T.

    1992-12-01

    An independent cost-estimate for key components of the forward superconducting air core toroid (ACT) was obtained in May 1992 from an experienced manufacturer of large cryogenic vessels. This new cost estimate is summarized in this report. It implies that a suitably designed ACT may have a cost which is approximately equal to that of the presently designed SDC forward iron core toroid

  19. An estimate of the cost of electricity production from hot-dry rock

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pierce, K.G.; Livesay, B.J.

    1993-01-01

    This paper gives an estimate of the cost to produce electricity from hot-dry rock (HDR). Employment of the energy in HDR for the production of electricity requires drilling multiple wells from the surface to the hot rock, connecting the wells through hydraulic fracturing, and then circulating water through the fracture system to extract heat from the rock. The basic HDR system modeled in this paper consists of an injection well, two production wells, the fracture system (or HDR reservoir), and a binary power plant. Water is pumped into the reservoir through the injection well where it is heated and then recovered through the production wells. Upon recovery, the hot water is pumped through a heat exchanger transferring heat to the binary, or working, fluid in the power plant. The power plant is a net 5.1-MW e binary plant employing dry cooling. Make-up water is supplied by a local well. In this paper, the cost of producing electricity with the basic system is estimated as the sum of the costs of the individual parts. The effects on cost of variations to certain assumptions, as well as the sensitivity of costs to different aspects of the basic system, are also investigated

  20. Estimation of economic costs of particulate air pollution from road transport in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, X. R.; Cheng, S. Y.; Chen, D. S.; Zhou, Y.; Wang, H. Y.

    2010-09-01

    Valuation of health effects of air pollution is becoming a critical component of the performance of cost-benefit analysis of pollution control measures, which provides a basis for setting priorities for action. Beijing has focused on control of transport emission as vehicular emissions have recently become an important source of air pollution, particularly during Olympic games and Post-games. In this paper, we conducted an estimation of health effects and economic cost caused by road transport-related air pollution using an integrated assessment approach which utilizes air quality model, engineering, epidemiology, and economics. The results show that the total economic cost of health impacts due to air pollution contributed from transport in Beijing during 2004-2008 was 272, 297, 310, 323, 298 million US (mean value), respectively. The economic costs of road transport accounted for 0.52, 0.57, 0.60, 0.62, and 0.58% of annual Beijing GDP from 2004 to 2008. Average cost per vehicle and per ton of PM 10 emission from road transport can also be estimated as 106 US /number and 3584 US $ t -1, respectively. These findings illustrate that the impact of road transport contributed particulate air pollution on human health could be substantial in Beijing, whether in physical and economic terms. Therefore, some control measures to reduce transport emissions could lead to considerable economic benefit.